Summary: Short RH; author's rule: short companies whose CEOs complain about macro.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

@blondesnmoney short companies whos CEOs complain about macro

Meowshid declares war on Restoration Hardware


Summary: Bullish OUST as a moonshot play on robotics growth.

@_Capitaltryst_ $OUST moonshot cause the robots are coming

@Citrini7 $ON $WOLF the robots are coming


Summary: HIMS will do better; NVO and LLY sales won't be meaningfully cut by HIMS competition — both can grow.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Compounding pharmacies (and also online peptide shops that don’t require a prescription at all) have been offering GLP-1s for years now.

I don’t think HIMS is going to cut appreciably into NVO/LLY sales. HIMS will do a lot better though. Both things can be true.


I don't think HIMS is going to cut appreciably into NVO/LLY sales


Summary: Bearish AWE.L since the start; prefers CRDO instead.

@Nick09348805 I don’t like it. I haven’t liked it since the start. I would rather own CRDO.

@Citrini7 Thoughts on $AWE.L @Citrini7 ?


Summary: Disagrees with market's NVDA selloff reaction to TSMC strong demand commentary; implied bullish.

@TShirtnJeans2 Yeah I mean selling ON or auto semi exposure on this I get but I think that NVDA sell was a bit dumb

@Citrini7 TSMC: Nvidia customers are going balls to the walls
Market: Holly shit! Sales might be too good! Sell!


Summary: Long BLBD on blowout earnings; long ESTA on remaining Motiva US upside by year-end.

industry='Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery'

Two overweighted stocks in the Citrini Research core portfolio showing up today for earnings: BLBD & ESTA.

BLBD earnings were really amazing by every metric.

ESTA still has lots of upside from Motiva in the US by eoy.


ESTA still has lots of upside from Motiva in the US by eoy


Summary: Bullish on Chinese property sector bonds (incl. Longfor) as distressed-to-recovery trade expected to repeat, targeting ~50% yield pickup over 3-4yr maturity.

Chinese property co bonds always have the wildest charts.

This trade has happened like 3 times in the past two years.

One time it will work. Yes some of them will go bust. But the rest of the bonds you pick up with end up yielding you 50% with an average maturity of 3-4 years. https://t.co/WYR5cFQRba

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basically round tripping BBB yield to distressed and back in 15 months here on longfor https://t.co/CmStxRl5Hh

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I had the pleasure of catching the 100%+ YTM to 15% YTM move on this back in late 22. Then it did it again. https://t.co/RjU4o1UZp8


Summary: Fair value on SMCI 500-600; speculates pre-earnings silence could be a gambit, implying upside from current levels.

listen I have zero financial incentive either way on this, as I’ve been super public about I sold my SMCI already and it would be a bummer to see it go back above where I sold it, but…

I know this company pretty intimately. I remember back in the day when it was 80 and I was v convinced they’d go above 120 because Charles Liang had stock incentives that unlocked above that level and he’s gotten pretty good at playing market sentiment.

I could be painfully wrong here, and the best indication of that fact is that I didn’t buy back any of my shares but for the sake of pontificating:

I don’t think it’s impossible that this is some sort of gambit. Anyone with eyes can see that stocks are getting punished on in line prints. NFLX getting smacked on a beat. Maybe they don’t preannounce to derisk into earnings. They know as well as anyone there’s a horde of people waiting to get short that definitely took their shot this week.

Again, I don’t own any SMCI. My fair value is and will remain (barring future material developments) 500-600.

SMCI has the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever…


Summary: Expects the European banks spread (vs some benchmark) to keep widening; bullish on the sector's relative outperformance.

@VKMacro I think this spread continues to widen https://t.co/e7yF2Fy3UO https://t.co/3jGiq6PmNn


Summary: Long APOG on same election-unrest thesis as DGLY.

industry='Building Products & Equipment'

@Citrini7 $DGLY - election riots regardless who wins.


Summary: Still holding long gold calls position.

@VKMacro Still am yeah. Cheap lil shits lol


Summary: Still holding UTI despite recent run-up; not selling on this print.

@lezmakemoney I would rather see top line growth from UTI than eps right now

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@lezmakemoney It ran up a lot so it’s reasonable it’ll cool off but I’m not selling on this print


Summary: Retracts prior hedge and asserts SMCI has definitively topped; bearish.

Earlier today I said we probably topped on SMCI. I retract that.

We definitely topped.

New math just dropped on $SMCI https://t.co/Jz159419oT


Summary: Wants RMD 50% lower; continued bearish call on ResMed.

industry='Medical Instruments & Supplies'

RMD 50% lower pls. https://t.co/1GifhMJ07n

On August 6th, I wrote that a GLP-1 trade I mentioned in my July 11th article (Long $LLY/Short ResMed $RMD) would end up like long AAPL short Blackberry (meaning a banger that’s obvious in hindsight).

LLY v RMD is now up 88% since that article.

Link: https://t.co/87BF8otCXT https://t.co/aeqnMIbXz5


Summary: Implies NVDA continues beat-and-raise for 3-4 more quarters; bullish on continued earnings outperformance.

there’s a real possibility that if NVDA continues the beat and raise cycle for another 3-4 quarters, we get an interview where Dan Ives just shows up naked


Summary: Expects market to pull back to 2021 ATH before a dip-buy opportunity; still holding hedges.

sold half of em, hanging on to the rest. still think we gotta go back and visit 2021s ATH before any good dip buy presents

If it were you, would you begin monetizing these hedges here? https://t.co/KJnwNIcl5V


Summary: Holds a long position in utilities (XLU) since mid-April.

@levenson_david Considering I got long utilities in mid April I’d say I notice it.

@Citrini7 Insane how you don't notice that major damage in XLK XLC and the improvement in XLU XLP


SMCI chart looks like, over the next few months, it's going to make me look like a genius for selling when I did

Summary: Expects SMCI to decline over the next few months, validating a prior sale.

SMCI chart looks like, over the next few months, it’s going to make me look like a genius for selling when I did.


Summary: Entering long HSI / short NKY pair trade.

Hang Seng Index proxy via iShares EWH Hong Kong ETF

Thank you for your sacrifice Chua 🫡 https://t.co/Va6ssHuG73

I’m getting into long HSI/short NKY.

I said my nice thing about the guy who blew up.

Now I’m gonna finish the job he started.


Summary: Endorses going all-in on Baidu; decisive bullish stance.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Need to talk myself out of just putting my whole PA into Baidu next week.


I remember someone said to me when I was shorting Boeing that plane standards were super high and you'd hear about more incidents if they weren't

This is, what, 5th in a week?

Summary: Implies continued bearish view on Boeing as repeated safety incidents validate prior short thesis.

I remember someone said to me when I was shorting Boeing that plane standards were super high and you’d hear about more incidents if they weren’t

This is, what, 5th in a week?

JUST IN: United Airlines Boeing 737 lands in Oregon after losing panel in mid-air https://t.co/qlqMV5lxkb


Summary: Believes Verisilicon has bottomed; implies upside from here.

VeriSilicon Holdings, Shanghai STAR Market

For the people investing in China: I think Verisilicon may have bottomed


Summary: Short PRI; added to the short side of an Insurance Long/Short portfolio at $220.

$PRI was added to the short side of our Insurance Long/Short at $220 last week. https://t.co/Mz6SxaagM9


I'd rather be long and worry about it when the Fed starts cutting. Simplistic? Sure but it's been working so I'm gonna keep doing it.

Summary: Staying long equities until the Fed begins cutting; plans to reduce exposure only then, not preemptively.

Honestly it would be hubris to look at the history of previous periods where the policy rate was kept elevated off a lower base for as long as it has been, mostly all followed by recession, and shrug off the possibility of a hard landing. It’s more than possible it’s probable even.

I’m just saying in most of those scenarios you can make pretty good money and wait until the Fed starts cutting to start saying “ok time to get serious and cut my exposure way down”.

That’s my plan at least. Been that way since 2022. Back then the thesis was much more focused on fiscal support and the fact that the “lagged effects” also apply to the east monetary and fiscal policy during the pandemic - which kept the economy strong.

That has an expiration date. Sure, there’s a chance we get a miraculous soft landing. I’d consider it a tail.

But either way, I’d rather be long and worry about it when the Fed starts cutting. Simplistic? Sure but it’s been working so I’m gonna keep doing it.

---

There are absolutely signs you can point to that offer excellent confirmation bias of an impending slowdown.

For every one of them there seems to be another pointing in the opposite direction.

I’m more than okay not being early to the call on that. The market is stubborn, it’s okay to wait until the data is unambiguous. Think of how obvious it was that inflation was a problem and that the Fed would have to hike more than 100bps off the ZLB before it started really impacting equities. You had at least a 3 month window.


Summary: Long AMZN (live position); regrets not maintaining short ETSY as funding leg.

@BostonTCapital I am long amzn. Just wish I kept fundingnit w short Etsy

@Citrini7 Never too late to go back long $AMZN. Probably wouldn’t short $ETSY here but what do I know


Just wish I kept funding it w short Etsy


if you can't understand why $CFLT or $NET are up, maybe looking a bit broader at the implication on the cycle would be a good exercise

Summary: Defends CFLT and NET post-earnings moves as justified by forward cycle implications from management commentary.

People will really just look at the earnings report, sparing zero thought to the implication on the future of the report and comments by management, and be like “I see nothing here that suggests this stock should be up”?

Are you trying to play time in reverse?

---

I get it, there’s some stocks out there that have gone up on truly stupidly terrible earnings. But if you can’t understand why $CFLT or $NET are up, maybe looking a bit broader at the implication on the cycle would be a good exercise.


I just had a dream that NVDA missed earnings then I woke up and saw this. I'm gonna buy some puts.

Summary: Buying NVDA puts; bearish into earnings.

I just had a dream that NVDA missed earnings then I woke up and saw this.

I’m gonna buy some puts.

“.. one of Wall Street’s most prominent pessimists ..”

@barronsonline $SPX 🇺🇸
https://t.co/Vl5QrmgvqU https://t.co/U6LgfL6dHY


Summary: Author reiterates prior thesis: short Vanke and similar Chinese property bonds trading near par, long beaten-down COGARDs/AGILEs/ROADKGs.

I don’t think anyone actually read this part but there was a whole section of my china primer that basically said the risk/reward on shorting Vanke & other Chinese prop bonds trading near par while being long the blown out COGARDs AGILEs and ROADKGs would be a good idea.

Various domestic bonds of #Vanke witnessed sweeping declines on Friday. Among these, '22 Vanke 05' plunged 6.7% to an all-time low of 74.2 yuan, accumulating a weekly loss of 9.2%, which marks the most significant weekly downturn in the bond's history. #China #Realestate


Summary: Bullish on IWM and DIA; both look attractive from here.

@ColinTruly Agree with this fr. IWM/DIA lookin juicy


I think lithium is about to have a wild run

Summary: Bullish lithium; expects a sharp price run imminently.


Summary: GME short-squeeze potential is very limited this cycle; implied bearish on the squeeze-driven move continuing.

Maybe two days but I was just saying today that S3/Markit showing SI days to cover at 9 which I believe is calculated as 20 day average volume. Combine that with the fact that nobody short is going to not have trauma that makes them cover or hedge post haste + more than 10x average volume trades today.

Maybe it keeps going up on hype but the short squeeze aspect of this will be extremely limited this time around.

Prediction: $GME is gonna be a one day wonder this time around.


Summary: Long HIMS, NVO, LLY, and Bachem as held positions across the semaglutide supply chain.

I own HIMS and NVO+LLY. So I’m good either way. But it won’t make a difference to them.

Also, I own Bachem and some other companies  which are one of the ~20 companies to have a DMF for producing semaglutide. So maybe that benefits too 😂

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Here is the list of the rest of them. I really like number 9 and wish it was public because then people could ask “what company do you think will benefit from this” and I could say “well I’m long Chinese peptide company” and they’d go “cmon tell me the name of the stock” https://t.co/aB0vSu5nvI


I own Bachem and some other companies which are one of the ~20 companies to have a DMF for producing semaglutide

Bachem Holding AG listed on SIX Swiss Exchange


Summary: Short SSTK: creative LLMs already have the training data, undercutting the bull thesis.

@FivosD $SSTK (short) - creative LLMs already have the data

@Citrini7 $SSTK - creative LLMs need data


Summary: Less bullish NVDA vs other AI plays; risk/reward no longer attractive, implying underperformance ahead.

@andy129999 @SwichLabs Idk if I want to risk my perfect record here but let's say 700 provided no significant changes occur. On Jan 22 I did say that I was less bullish on NVDA than many other AI beneficiaries. Risk reward isn't really there anymore.

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@andy129999 @SwichLabs record intact


Summary: Sarcastically mocks Loop Capital's $1,200 PT as too low; actual stance is bullish NVDA with much higher upside implied.

$NVDA: Loop Capital initiates at Buy - PT $1,200.00 (high on the Street)

"Initiating Buy and $1200 PT (63% appreciation) as we believe not only is there material upside to Street estimates in CY2024/FY2025 & CY2025/FY2026 but that we are at the front end of a 3 - 5 year GPU


I'm gonna use this as confirmation bias to stay short XHB

Summary: Maintaining short position in XHB homebuilder ETF.

I’m gonna use this as confirmation bias to stay short XHB.

Don’t @ me commodity people, I don’t care yet if I’m misinterpreting. https://t.co/nwm5PXpQVU


Summary: Prefers shorting SHOP over alternatives; bearish lean on Shopify.

@Namzes_G Shorting SHOP seems a lot safer tbh


Summary: Short SPX via 0dte puts struck at 5150, entered at 5175.

Looks like a quality intraday short setup, if anyone needs me I’ll be over here punting 0dte puts.

---

DISCLAIMER: 0dte put options carry a host of risks such as:

-being dumb af
-having other people see you be dumb
-losing all your money because indices only go up
-indices go down but you still lose all your money
-having to learn greek letters
-buying @TimTheMM a new Porsche

that said I’m loaded in the SPX 5150p ref: 5175


Summary: Dismisses Apple-is-dead narrative; Siri improvements will drive iPhone sales.

guys why isn’t anyone talking about how apple is dead and how they didn’t build their own model and freaking out cause of OPeNAI pRiVaCy anymore???

simple: you will tell Siri to do things and it will do them. people are gonna buy the phone. gattaca. https://t.co/4OtwX0otwk


Summary: Bullish Pegatron on a convincing-looking technical breakout.

Pegatron Corp listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange

Pegatron breakout looks real nice https://t.co/GrKur9vTTK


Summary: Short ASHR over next 3 months as the common short leg across all three proposed pair trades.

long FXI short ASHR

or

long CXSE short ASHR

or

long EWH short ASHR

which one outperforms next 3mo?


Summary: Author considers AAPL a good short, bearish stance.

@fejau_inc @concodanomics I can’t buy a new iPhone while apple is such a good short. Against my religion

@concodanomics that poor iphone screen looks like its been ran through


Summary: Still holding overweighted Long Trump basket (FNMA, FMCC, GEO, DWAC) up 5.1% in March, outperforming SPY.

I’m aware it’s cringe but I’m real stoked to have had one of my thematic baskets cited by The Economist. I used to read it as a kid.

With the recent moves in $FNMA, $FMCC, $GEO and $DWAC, which were all overweighted, our Long Trump / Short Biden basket that we posted about four weeks ago is up 5.1% in March (vs 1.5% for $SPY) as of yesterday’s close.

It’s a great basket, and is already up almost 1% premarket today as well.

Since I’m on vacation chilling tf out, I’m just going to post the basket for free. I hope it’s helpful.

Thank you for following me and giving me a platform to ramble on about markets and themes, everyone.

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You can get our other long/short baskets focused on TCJA and GILTI beneficiaries/victims, as well as all the in depth reasoning for the names above in our 35 page primer on trading the 2024 election here:

https://t.co/HZpstHdwGX


industry='Security & Protection Services'


Summary: Euro heading back to parity vs USD; bearish EUR/USD.


Summary: Expects S&P 500 to retest 5100 then fade lower into rest of week.

ok hit that now let’s try flipping long into close…

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looking bleak lol

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slightly less bleak

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rest of the week: 5100 retest then fade again imo


Summary: Confirms it's time to go long USDMXN.

It’s gotta be time to long USDMXN right?


GLD March 192.5c 0.44 -> 1.92

They were very cheap.

Summary: Endorses gold calls as cheap crisis hedge; GLD March 192.5c have already moved from 0.44 to 1.92, implying ongoing bullish view.

I don’t want to own call options on gold but it seems like they’re a lot cheaper as a hedge against some crisis BS than bond calls rn.


in Q4 it's gonna act like a clinical stage biopharma on the Ph2 results

Summary: Warns AMGN will trade like risky clinical-stage biotech on Ph2 obesity data in Q4; skeptical of GLP-1 premium durability.

“Patient friendly” is a pretty big claim for a drug that lasts longer than 2mo and has 100% incidence of GI side effects in the highest dose cohort.

AMGN will price in the GLP-1 premium, and that can be a good trade, but be aware of the fact that in Q4 it’s gonna act like a clinical stage biopharma on the Ph2 results.

$VKTX A contrarian view on Viking Therapeutics, biotech’s hottest obesity stock https://t.co/14XdPDCl8f

From my newsletter, March 28.

And now, the $AMGN update: A once-monthly, patient-friendly injectable weight-loss drug would stack up quite well against an oral, right?


INMD management is incapable and their product does not work / isn't standard of care in abdominoplasty. Don't waste your time on it imo.

Summary: Bearish INMD: management incapable, product not standard of care; avoid after channel checks.

@JonahLupton INMD management is incapable and their product does not work / isn’t standard of care in abdominoplasty.

I had the same thought as you did here, spent a lot of time going deep on the co doing channel checks etc. Don’t waste your time on it imo.

In a recent survey (done by Needham) of users of GLP-1 drugs, 62% of the respondents said they are now more likely to get aesthetic/cosmetic procedures (to help with skin tightening) and/or begin using injectables like Botox and $EOLS Jeuveau as well as fillers to help with


Summary: Rotating meme-coin profits into VTI; committing all proceeds to the ETF.

The meme coins were fun for a bit and I made some money, actually a lot more money than I should have/expected to, but the novelty has entirely worn off so I’m gonna take all of those proceeds and put them into VTI.

Byeeeee


Summary: SPX expected to rally into end of day as bears get squeezed.

SPX should rally into eod as bears, being too dumb to wear those little sunglasses, stare straight into the sun and are blinded by the close.


Now is the part of the cycle where you find businesses that are priced like they will die and then make money when it turns out they aren't going to die

Summary: Long RENT: priced for death but won't die; cycle favors beaten-down distressed equities.

Now is the part of the cycle where you find businesses that are priced like they will die and then make money when it turns out they aren’t going to die (even if the business is still kinda meh)

$RENT https://t.co/eSKmdlC3JF


Summary: Significantly overweight EU defense names in portfolio; high conviction on the European defense theme.

EU defense basket: Rheinmetall, Airbus, Leonardo, BAE, Saab

“In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the king” 😉

Really though, Alexander lays out a great summary of the reasoning behind being long EU defense names (including some stuff I didn’t even know).

The clarity of this thesis is why I have significantly overweighted it in our portfolio. Here’s what I recently wrote about it to elaborate on our initial coverage of it in our “Election 2024” piece:

So u don’t miss this theme based opps @Citrini7. After all, you are the theme king on Twitter.


Summary: Going long Chinese market despite (because of) state-directed support; sarcastic acknowledgment that the market is rigged in bulls' favor.

@RaisingTheBAR47 broke: omg the market is rigged this is so unfair

woke: lmao this specific market is actually rigged, getting hella long

How exciting that China bottomed

Good for their regulators for deciding it’s time for their number to go up


honestly if we close below 5125 I'd say go for it on being short

Summary: Conditional short on US equity index (S&P500) if it closes below 5125.

@tripscapital America

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@tripscapital honestly if we close below 5125 I’d say go for it on being short


Summary: Bullish MU to $200; reaffirms target from prior call.

@Tykube @agnostoxxx @SirOfFinance $200 or bust and yeah I’m enjoying myself lol had to do something on the flight so finished this

@Citrini7 @agnostoxxx @SirOfFinance micron gonna hit 150$ nice call haha hope vacation is fun


Summary: Bullish on CPNG as a small speculative bet; SE seen as the next opportunity.

A worthwhile little punt for CPNG. SE up next 🫣 https://t.co/kTDA3Qcb8l


Summary: Endorses long MXN funded by short JPY carry trade.

@Globalflows fund it with JPY to reach new levels of degeneracy

Man, when the time comes, the long Peso trade is going to be 🤌🔥


Summary: Bullish LLY on Zepbound autoinjector displacing Wegovy.

@RaisingTheBAR47 note the zepbound autoinjector instead of Wegovy.

LLY is so back.


Gotta be at least a short term top today … in SMCI

Summary: Short-term top call on SMCI today; bearish near-term.

Gotta be at least a short term top today

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Should clarify: in SMCI. Idk what the market is gonna do


Summary: Long IWM, calling for a 5% rip in the next two days.

come on IWM all we need is a 5% rip in the next two days https://t.co/3WjOK4S8an

Dear Trading God,

I don’t ask for a lot, but I come to you today on bended knee to humbly request the funniest pain trade ever to make the beras pay for disrespecting your holy indices.

+3% SPX & +9% on IWM this month, lord.

I pray this in your profiting name,

Citrini https://t.co/EC2VqgU6mZ


This is a really good breakout on gold that'll probably keep going for a bit

Summary: Gold breakout expected to continue; author looking to buy gold miners as a play.

This is a really good breakout on gold that’ll probably keep going for a bit and I’m kinda pissed I sold early.

Time to start trolling gold miners I guess.


Time to start trolling gold miners I guess


Summary: Soft bullish lean on Monday.com after earnings disappointment; would buy the dip.

If I was Monday dot com Id pick a different day than Monday to bomb earnings

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(I’d buy this dip tho maybe)


Summary: Bullish on water and water filtration companies; sees a big tailwind ahead.

Water/filtration sector via PHO and FIW ETFs

@Mike10947310 Yeah this was part of the reason I started buying water and water filtration cos. Going to be a big tailwind for them I think

@Citrini7 By far this one: https://t.co/zJPbUkbyeG


Summary: Bullish LLY; current sub-$1T market cap seen as undervalued against its natural worth.

Every day Eli Lily is under 1T market cap is an affront to the natural order. https://t.co/rAUkXEzXbF


then I'm gonna move it somewhere I dont check, allowing me to forget that last third exists while it either becomes worthless or hedges against the dystopian future

Summary: Selling 2/3 of Worldcoin at 2x cost basis but holding remaining third as a long-shot hedge; residual long position.

gonna sell two thirds of my worldcoin here for 2x the position’s cost basis.

then I’m gonna move it somewhere I dont check, allowing me to forget that last third exists while it either becomes worthless or hedges against the dystopian future envisioned by @goodalexander

you live in the world and yet own no worldcoin

curious


probably going to enter a part of the cycle where Bitcoin dgaf about macro and becomes increasingly unconcerned with the risk on v risk off sentiment as it applies to equities

Summary: Bitcoin likely entering a cycle phase where it decouples from macro/risk-on-off sentiment, implying idiosyncratic upside.


If cava starts getting shut down for E. coli it will be the most bullish thing that's ever happened to it. Only CMG longs know this to be true.

Summary: Sarcastic: E. coli shutdown would actually be bullish for CAVA, citing CMG's post-outbreak recovery as precedent.

If cava starts getting shut down for E. coli it will be the most bullish thing that’s ever happened to it. Only CMG longs know this to be true.

Cava $CAVA is the worst food health/safety of any fast casual chain among its peer set.

-On a per order basis, Cava receives more complaints across restaurant review sites/social media about raw meat and food sickness issues than any of its peers

-In most geographies Cavas https://t.co/rxsSm3l4Qs


disregard previous bullishness: it's bera time until ~5065

Summary: Reverses prior bullish stance; now bearish on S&P500 targeting ~5065.

disregard previous bullishness: it’s bera time until ~5065


I'd be willing to make a bet that this list underperforms the KRE next 12 months despite the already significant drop

Summary: Expects KRE to outperform some unnamed list of stocks over the next 12 months; long KRE relative.

@Aureliusltd28 I’d be willing to make a bet that this list underperforms the KRE next 12 months despite the already significant drop.

Prob an interest rate bet embedded in there, but still.


If you're tempted to buy SMCI you could just buy Wistron and get the same exposure pretty much

Summary: Holds SMCI and Wistron (3231.TW) long; pitches Wistron as cheaper SMCI proxy.

If you’re tempted to buy SMCI you could just buy Wistron and get the same exposure pretty much. For a lot cheaper. 3231 TT (Taiwanese stocks trade through IBKR now if you’re unsure of how to buy).

I have been long both for almost a year now. And they were very correlated up until the recent bout of SMCI ascendancy.

---

As someone pointed out Wiwynn probably more accurate


I have been long both for almost a year now


Cheap optionality in a hated asset class is an easy buy for the asymmetry alone. It's why I still own these converts

Summary: Long MSTR converts and Argo Blockchain preferreds; also thinks buying gold calls here is a good idea on cheap asymmetric optionality.

Cheap optionality in a hated asset class is an easy buy for the asymmetry alone.

It’s why I still own these converts as well as the preferreds on Argo Blockchain I bought in Dec 22.

It’s why I think buying gold calls here is probably a good idea and why I bought the busted up bonds of Chinese property developers like ROADKG, COGARD & AGILE back in August sub 20 cents.

The ones that work make up for so many that don’t.

Converts are wonderful instruments, sometimes.

Beginning of the year, MSTR 0.75 2025 converts are trading below 50 cents on the dollar. The coupon is 0.75% & they mature in exactly 3 years, so the yield to maturity is about 24-25%. Highs in 2021 were $300. https://t.co/uEK2K7jD9U


I think buying gold calls here is probably a good idea


Summary: Bullish REAL to $10; market mispriced bankruptcy risk as demand for discounted luxury goods rises.

$REAL can get pretty crazy here. Seems the market was pretty sure it was going to go bankrupt and it may end up thriving due to increased demand for discounted luxury goods as the consumer’s spending habits change


Summary: Short ELF after seeing ad campaign shift toward discount/value messaging rather than quality-at-lower-cost positioning.

industry='Household & Personal Products'

Gonna have to see if my ad vibes still work.

Just saw the $ELF ad campaign with Judge Judy and my first instinct was that it is time to get short.

There’s a big difference between marketing high fashion ads where you’ve got a high quality product at a lower cost vs. marketing the product as lower cost.

(Last time I tried to do something off the vibe I got from an ad I got run over, though)


Summary: Endorses MTBA as promising fixed-income ETF if rates continue to fall.

RISR has truly been an amazing ETF. Positive carry with negative convexity. Just excellent.

I don’t normally like ETFs for equities (would rather make my own baskets) but I think there have been some really great ones in fixed income:

$RISR was an excellent hold as rates went up (and has held up great as they fell)

$MTBA looks extremely promising if rates fall further


Summary: Bearish Upwork; decisive negative verdict.

upwork is comically fucked

---

said this a while ago https://t.co/vN8be9CFTU


Summary: Bullish XBI rally; added VKTX and ZEAL to biopharma basket on GLP-1 developments.

$XBI rally is defying the odds right now, I wrote up some of my thoughts on the two GLP-1 developments this week in $VKTX and $ZEAL & made some additions to our biopharma basket

Read here:

https://t.co/IuJzNBhhTq


made some additions to our biopharma basket


Summary: Fair value estimate of $500–600 on SMCI implies upside from current levels.

Wrote this to paid subscribers but because I started posting about SMCI before the substack was paid figured I’d post it here as well.

Again my fair value on SMCI is 500-600. https://t.co/G7Ht8JqmWl


Summary: Active short position in MSTR, up 11% on the second attempt after initial stop-out.

4% stop loss hit the first time around

now up 11% on the second short attempt.

do you see how this works? being wrong is fine if you make enough to make it not matter when you’re right.

The MSTR convert/equity issuance indicator was correct again…

Might try again on the short. Saylor is better than any of us at timing his stock.


Summary: Expects S&P futures up and bonds down for the trading session.

spoos: up
bonds: down
11 hours of sea shanties: loaded up

oh yeah, it’s trading time https://t.co/VrNltjqgGU


Summary: Taking a long ETHBTC position (ETH outperforming BTC).

I need to execute a trade, it’s been too long and I kept my promise to myself about not trading on vacation, but it’s Sunday so…

Long ETHBTC I guess


Would I hold it as more than like 20-30bps of my book? Absolutely not. But if it works out it's a 10x, so I'm interest e.

Summary: Holds RXRX as a small option on AI drug discovery with 10x upside; low-conviction long at 20-30bps position size.

@Nine9_Tailed I view it much in the same way that NVDA does I imagine, as an option on AI drug discovery. Would I hold it as more than like 20-30bps of my book? Absolutely not. But if it works out it’s a 10x, so I’m interest e.

@Citrini7 are you sure this is sth you want to hold, just because NVDA bought their shares? $RXRX

How does the “SAAS” concept work? Would any drug company give them training data? How do they achieve specificity? Can their model choose right compound for different diseases?

Tx https://t.co/rTiIZqzYp2


Summary: LLY should be above $1T market cap; decisive bullish quality verdict.

Every day Eli Lily is under 1T market cap is an affront to the natural order.


Summary: Warns NVDA shorts to cover: comparing it to CSCO dot-com bubble is misguided; bullish implication for NVDA.

This is a pretty based chart from @fundstrat

I am pretty sure it should be clear that Tom isn’t using this analog to suggest NVDA takes the same course as CSCO but rather that if you want to start comparing NVDA to CSCO in the dot com bubble…you better cover your fcking short. https://t.co/BxMZ94gBBx


Summary: HSI heading to 19k.

Hang Seng Index proxy via iShares EWH ETF


Summary: Prefers FNMA as a speculative long over DJT.

@dalibali2 @nope_its_lily @eliant_capital FNMA is more degenerate and thus more my style

@Citrini7 @nope_its_lily @eliant_capital Y’all are over thinking this. Just go long DJT!


Summary: Pair trade: sell GOOGL, buy AAPL; also overweight TSM as part of next-phase AI positioning.

Here’s a free preview of our annual review on the next phase of AI that was published on 6/2.    It includes excerpts of our view on selling GOOGL to buy AAPL, overweighting TSM and evaluating CRDO’s last earnings.

Again it’s free so check it out.

https://t.co/Q6i4F6Bl2O


Summary: Ready to go long healthcare stocks beaten down by GLP-1 fears.

CitriniResearch would like to make it very clear to any healthcare investors whose stocks went down because of GLP-1 fears that it was definitely not our fault.

But, in the hypothetical situation where it was, we’re ready to go long them now. https://t.co/hF9SGzAuad


Summary: Long vocational school stocks LAUR, PRDO, ATGE, UTI as beneficiaries of Trump deregulation and onshoring/nearshoring tailwinds reinforced by JD Vance pick.

One of my favorites of the Trump trade ideas was a combination of deregulation & Onshoring vs Nearshoring tailwinds.

Vocational schools like $LAUR $PRDO $ATGE and  $UTI are beneficiaries (anyone remember Betsy DeVos?). JD Vance pick reinforces that imo.


Summary: Endorses bullish Q4 view on APOG; solid profit outlook ahead.

Very solid profit outlook on $APOG https://t.co/hUDqQR7b9r

Shaping up to be a solid Q4 for retail storefront glass $APOG


Summary: Sees HSI pulling back near 18k then ripping to an even more vertical rally.

@aeybobby honestly idk about the US election but I can definitely see a near round trip followed by an even funnier and more vertical rally

@Citrini7 Max pain is pullback to where rally started ie 18k HSI followed by Trump victory and max ‘tarriff’ talk

… then rip


Summary: USDJPY must fall at least 30% from the level when JPY was compared to TRY/ARS; strongly bearish USD/JPY.

we have to go at least 30% lower on USDJPY than when saravelos said JPY was the same as TRY or ARS. sorry, I don’t make the rules. https://t.co/oqVIEJYMie


I think that in the next 12-24 months this specific line of features becomes a "must have" and drives a massive replacement cycle

Summary: Bullish AAPL: expects a massive iPhone replacement cycle driven by new features becoming must-haves in the next 12-24 months.

I mean it’s a pretty simple disagreement that honestly is more risky on my side. You think that this cycle is going to be similar to past cycles and view it as an incremental change that will be treated that way by consumers. I think that in the next 12-24 months this specific line of features becomes a “must have” and drives a massive replacement cycle.

History would say you will be right but I am willing to stick my neck out a bit on this one.

@ghill37g @Citrini7 higher iPhone numbers for the reasons I describe and a much bigger multiple. multiple was too low before obviously because ppl didnt appreciate iphone pricing power. but not totally outrageous as Huawei was eating Apple's lunch before the Sep 2020 ban


Summary: Bullish ETH on bipartisan political tailwind; neither party wants to be anti-crypto.

All you need to remember is how quickly the ETH ETF got approval after Trump came out pro crypto.

Neither party wants to be the anti crypto party here. Too much on the line to create a new single issue along which to divide undecideds.


I've been short some alcohol companies on both the anticipated impact of GLP-1s and the lower propensity of gen Z to social drinking

Summary: Currently short select alcohol companies on GLP-1 headwinds and declining gen Z social drinking.

Alcohol sector basket: Constellation, Brown-Forman, Diageo

An idea I’ve been going back and forth on (which I’ve ultimately not decided to do as it strikes me as overthink-y) - I’ve been short some alcohol companies on both the anticipated impact of GLP-1s and the lower propensity of gen Z to social drinking. What I would do if the latter element wasn’t more pronounced than the former like it is right now would be:

 long alcohol companies with the majority of their revenues in, say, Japan or other countries where diabesity is less common and GLP-1 penetration will be less significant while

short those with the majority of their revenues in fatter rich countries

---

real https://t.co/EnUDRx7Iwd


There's so much opportunity out there right now in SMID cap

Summary: Bullish on US SMID-cap equities; found two names expected to double.

Have found two names in the past week that are obvious doubles imo.

There’s so much opportunity out there right now in SMID cap.


gains accruing solely to the hyperscalers is not just a phenomenon in stock price. it's a fundamental story.

Summary: Endorses hyperscalers (MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/META) as fundamental beneficiaries of AI/data gains; implicitly bearish on SNOW as gains don't accrue to it.

many such cases. gains accruing solely to the hyperscalers is not just a phenomenon in stock price. it’s a fundamental story.

I Spent my entire weekend researching everything databases , BI, AI/ML, $SNOW , Databricks, Iceberg blah blah...

All I came away with is... Buy $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN and $META...

I went into this thinking @laurenbalik was a $snow hater and isnt worth paying attention to but... I


A measly 77 billion stands between us and glory.

Summary: Bullish LLY; frames ~$77B gap to $1T market cap as trivial, implying upside.


Summary: Disagrees with parent; BOJ will tighten as China eases, narrowing rate differentials and strengthening the yen (USD/JPY lower).

I would make this point differently and point out the following alternative view;

A large part of what allowed Japan to resist normalization of policy for so long was that China was exporting deflation and therefore allowing Japan to remain in their low rate paradigm well past the worst of the 2022 inflationary episode.

China easing while the global economy stays strong would likely necessitate a continued policy response of tightening that will narrow interest rate differentials & strengthen the yen, in my opinion.

With new “MAGA” prime Minister of Japan, and China strategically easing on both monetary and fiscal front - with lots of financial engineering in the China capital markets now - it likely means BOJ will not be hiking rates anytime soon.

With US dollar weak/falling, and as long


Summary: Sell bonds, buy equities as Trump election odds rise; equity themes set to play out with increased ferocity.

No particular reason for posting this but I think it might be time to go reread this article I wrote back in March/April about being positioned for how the market will digest Trump’s election odds rising significantly.

https://t.co/HZpstHdwGX

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sell bonds buy equities

(in case you want a tldr)

but there’s a lot of equity stuff in there too that’ll likely begin playing out with increased ferocity

---

https://t.co/podgjI8VQp


US Treasury bonds via IEF (7-10Y) and TLT (20Y+)


Summary: Disagrees with parent's bearish GNRC view; implies bullish stance.

@damedondalla @WaterworldCapi1 this but the exact opposite conclusion

@WaterworldCapi1 @Citrini7 Gnrc is probably a zero it’s the most expensive option https://t.co/tLThNns1Lm


Summary: Considering flipping the QQQ/IWM relative trade — long IWM vs short QQQ as the performance gap narrows to ~2%.

QQQ is now only outperforming IWM by ~2% YTD from a high of 20% outperformance. https://t.co/ung51PcPhT


Summary: Doubled VRT position on the dip; bullish on the business fundamentals.

Two months ago you could buy $VRT in size below $70, an insane reaction to a bunch of variables that had nothing to do with how hard the business is killing it.

didn’t quite catch the lows exactly but managed to use the dip to double the size of our position below $80! https://t.co/rVbtyOoHMT


Summary: Buying HIMS on the dip caused by short seller report, dismissing the report's concerns as already-known risks baked into the thesis.

don’t normally like staying involved in names that get short seller drama but I’m buying some HIMS here. I understand taking profit (stock is up huge) but if you’re selling because of the points raised by this short report (like “it’s easy to get a prescription” and “if the compounded drugs have an issue, that will be bad”) then you probably didn’t understand the name to begin with.

---

“it’s too easy to get a prescription! if this continues then everyone will be able to get a prescription for GLP-1s” https://t.co/YdYoaRoscr

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“if the compounded drugs have issues then that will be bad” https://t.co/PHwjWMH7x9


Summary: Nikkei has more downside than Nasdaq; both expected to decline but Nikkei more so.

I think Nikkei has more downside left than Nasdaq tbh


Summary: Bullish ADBE; market badly misreads AI impact on Adobe — bears who think image generators hurt sales will get wrecked.

I cannot express how first-order-thinking, zero-critical-thought, basic-ass-bitch-mindset the market has been when it comes to viewing the impact of AI on Adobe.

“da image generators will make da sales not gud”

Gonna be amazing to watch those idiots get wrecked.

$ADBE CEO: "We've created our own foundation models in imaging and video,...We showed how we can actually integrate other models as well...We were differentiated in that we said we will train our models only on data that we have license for and so we can indemnify a customer"


Summary: Sarcastic but genuine lean: natural gas goes up on hot summer / cold winter demand; buy before it rises.

Natural gas via United States Natural Gas Fund UNG

they keep saying natural gas is hard but maybe they should just try buying before it goes up and selling before it goes down idk?

hot summer

cold winter

i have consulted the experts: this is a positive for natural gas.


Summary: Short US defense sector given Trump's NATO comments pushing spending burden to European members.

@bubbleboy_08 @lord_fed difficult to reconcile a short on eu defense with trump’s comments re: nato members being forced to pay 2% GDP or “be on their own”. i think the trade would just be to short u.s. defense considering


Summary: Shifting from crude to long gasoline and heating oil on advice received.

Gasoline commodity via United States Gasoline Fund UGA

I’ve been informed by @moreproteinbars that I don’t actually want to be long crude, I want to be long gasoline & heating oil.


Summary: Bullish Malaysia ETF EWM on unspecified catalyst.

@dalibali2 this is actually incredibly bullish brb I’m going to go buy some $EWM


Summary: Bullish ESTA; expects shorts to be squeezed, implying price moves significantly higher from current levels.

I hope the people who are short $ESTA don’t cover today. I hope they think they’re being very clever by waiting for evidence of commercialization they think will be lackluster to prove the bear case.

It will be so much sweeter to watch them lift the offer at 70 than here.


ELV's poor results on higher utilization suggests a better outlook for devices

Summary: ELV poor results signal rising utilization headwinds; medtech/devices poised for cyclical inflection upward.

Healthcare’s cyclical inflection continues with SRT echoing MRK in calling a bottom for bioprocessing on the horizon. Meanwhile, in medtech, ELV’s poor results on higher utilization suggests a better outlook for devices

https://t.co/kLjgSmTQng https://t.co/y4kkskdGRO

the note we published this week on healthcare/medtech experiencing a cyclical trough was  shorter than our previous primers, because it was very clear that ain’t nobody got time for a 80 page long treatise 2 days after the VIX tripled in a day

https://t.co/kLjgSmTQng


Summary: Calls vol a generational selling opportunity; strongly bearish on volatility.

VIX volatility proxy via UVXY (short-term VIX futures)

@RaisingTheBAR47 generational vol selling opportunity

Somewhat concerning vol can’t crack sub 15 with China stimmy and fed easing

Stay woke


Summary: Entering long HSI / short NKY pair trade, endorsing and extending a known failed trade.

mandatory moment of silence for chua

you died so this trade could live 🫡 https://t.co/ggWSDgqsKD

I’m getting into long HSI/short NKY.

I said my nice thing about the guy who blew up.

Now I’m gonna finish the job he started.


Summary: Maintains long office CRE thesis despite growth scare, citing WFH power balance shifting in a recession.

Office CRE basket: BXP and SL Green, pure-play office REITs

It seems truly insane to buy office CRE into a growth scare but this is in fact still my thesis.

@EgweneAlVer Well….

I agree with you there. And I think the actual risks in real estate may be in MF rather than office.

Think about how the employment dynamic changes (the power balance btwn employer and employee) during a recession. “I wanna WFH” does not fly w/ u3 > 4.5%

And combined w


Summary: USDCAD viewed as peaked and a short, though author hesitates on timing near Fourth of July.

significant issues forming into a dilemma:

1) I think USDCAD has peaked and is a short here

2) there’s zero chance I can bring myself to short USDCAD a week before the Fourth of July


Summary: Long MRVL as a hedge within AI basket; ASIC disruption risk makes it a defensive position.

@Crypto_Class21 I view MRVL like a hedge on AI basket from risk of ASICs disrupting current paradigm

@Citrini7 You still like MRVL and UTI? They seem like they haven’t hit their stride vs other AI basket members.

CLS and SMCI have seen some significant follow through YTD.


$SPRY was one of the biopharma names we added to the portfolio in the recent rebalance. It's kind of a layup. I think it's at least a double from here.

Summary: Long SPRY: added to portfolio, intranasal epi product has strong pediatric penetration potential, cheap vs epipen, at least a double from here.

$SPRY was one of the biopharma names we added to the portfolio in the recent rebalance.

It’s kind of a layup.

I have seen lots of people freak out about administering epipens. Just the other day my gf had to give a kid having anaphylaxis an epipen on the subway because their caretaker was too afraid to do it.

This is actually not an unreasonable fear, either. Delivering an epipen is easy, but also easy to mess up if you’re freaking out.

This product (intranasal epi delivered via nasal spray) will have solid penetration, especially in pediatrics. It’s comparable in price to an epipen, without insurance it’s actually cheaper than an epipen and comparable to adrenaclick ($199 for 2 doses of neffy, $500-700 for 2 epi autoinjectors).

I think the company can pull off awareness (especially in pediatrics) without much in the way of marketing expenses (moms groups talk) and probably rack up some solid revenue before getting acquired.

I’m a big fan of the company realizing it can make money while also having a net benefit here (ensuring copay is max $25/offering @ $199 w/o insurance), think that also speaks to their read on what demand will be like.

I think it’s at least a double from here. Still, it’s a biopharma so it could also just go to zero because of “lmao sike”. Size appropriately.

$SPRY back of the envelope maths: assuming it doubles (conservative see latest prez) the tam, that’s 2bn potential revenue, slap a customary  3-4x multiple on that and you get to 6-8bn market cap,  a 6-8x from here.


Summary: Disclosed long position in Apple; dismisses bearish counterpart's thesis.

@Mementium I can’t tell you how happy it makes me, as someone long apple, that this is your take. You will be just as wrong as you were on Lily. https://t.co/0SYFn7zAxO


bloomberg guests saying a pullback is a good thing makes me think the pullback isn't over yet

Summary: Contrarian read: consensus comfort with HK/China pullback signals it has further to go.

tbh bloomberg guests saying a pullback is a good thing makes me think the pullback isn’t over yet.

Pullback continues. HK extends yesterday’s 10% losses. Mainland China gauges completely reverse yesterday’s reopening rally.

Our guests have told us this consolidation is a good thing. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Most of the easy money’s been made. Best to avoid index https://t.co/h84bEH3zro


My thesis is that ESTA's Motiva implant is situated well to hit the market as this upcoming lift in volumes begins truly surprising consensus

Summary: Long ESTA: Motiva implant positioned to benefit as GLP-1-driven cosmetic procedure volumes ramp and surprise consensus.

Yeah that’s why this is still a thesis. There are still only about 1 million patients in the US who have even been on these drugs long enough to have experienced results that *could* necessitate a procedure like this. That’s not counting the % that won’t seek out these treatments or won’t have these issues (or, of course, the % that don’t have boobs). Supply chain issues with GLP-1s and lack of coverage/expense make that so, but they are being addressed. My thesis is that ESTA’s Motiva implant is situated well to hit the market as this upcoming lift in volumes begins truly surprising consensus.

@Citrini7 So I would guess whatever subset of patients are good candidates for silicon, the bulk of them probably haven’t trickled into the clinic yet.


Summary: Playfully but genuinely bullish on NVDA; endorses the bullish sentiment embedded in the anecdote.

@JackFarley96 @ForwardGuidance I love how the transcription software changed “NVDA is a fabless semiconductor company” to “NVDA is a fabulous semiconductor company”.

Even the damn software itself is bullish on NVDA.

OUT NOW- when @Citrini7 came on @ForwardGuidance in June 2023 to share his mega-bull case for AI stocks, some in my audience laughed at him.

Now that his portfolio is up 100% since then, no one is laughing now.

Today's topic is even more controversial: 2024 election alpha. https://t.co/y1eIpG4vMe


Summary: Rotation into inference-phase plays: CPUs, DRAM, and interconnects are the next leg after GPU/HBM/training buildout.

we bought the GPUs, the HBM, servers, datacenter stuff. we bid the model trainers.

now we will buy the CPUs and the dram and the interconnects. the inferrers and the inferred.

return to basics & remember we’re all kinda slow and stupid I guess. https://t.co/FJPlkerwyU

“AI/ML involves training and inference”

Investors: “ok let’s spend 18 months bidding training and then we can start bidding inference”

after literally a year spent thinking about this it might actually end up being that simple bros


oh that's a good business" you buy the stock? Seems like it might be that simple, my friends?

Summary: Bullish FTAI: author implies buying after concluding it's a good business.

Is it actually maybe just as simple as when you go “oh that’s a good business” you buy the stock?

Seems like it might be that simple, my friends?

Someone finally explained FTAI to me and wow what a business


Summary: Holds a small short USDJPY position.

@TShirtnJeans2 USDJPY you mean and maybe? I shorted a bit

@Citrini7 JPY/USD is tanking again.
Is the JPY carry unwind back on?


Agency MBS REITs are a low key goated play for what's coming still too

Summary: Bullish on Agency MBS REITs as a strong play for the current macro environment.

@PharmD_KS Agency MBS REITs are a low key goated play for what’s coming still too


Shaping up to be a solid Q4 for retail storefront glass $APOG

Summary: Bullish APOG on solid Q4 outlook for retail storefront glass.


I think it's time to just be straight up short CACC

Summary: Advocates removing the hedge and going outright short CACC.

I think it’s time to just be straight up short CACC?

$CACC short (avg 555) is now hedged w/ $OMF long @ $31


Summary: China stimulus skepticism means bold upside sellers, setting up a gamma squeeze on FXI on any incremental fiscal news.

I’m going to refrain from sharing my view on Chinese stimulus efforts economically speaking as a reasonable consensus has already emerged (good start/needs more non-monetary aspects).

But what I will say is that nearly everyone I’ve spoken to has deep suspicions this acts the same as all previous China pumps. That’s a reasonable and self-preserving stance…but it also means some bold sellers of upside. And that sets up for further, squeezy action on incrementally good news (of which there is potentially a lot in the pipeline).

If I was China and my main concern here were ensuring positioning worked in my favor, what I’d do is keep mum for the next week or so. Let everyone think the monetary is the only component, feel comfortable selling those FXI calls. Then start leaking out hints at fiscal, drag it out and cause gamma squeezes that ensure it doesn’t fizzle out.

My two cents. Not that valuable but felt like sharing 😂


Summary: Short semis as a directional call alongside long tacos.

@CoorsLightCEO did you not hear? it’s over. long tacos/short semis. https://t.co/CrtnrYOxu5

idk i guess only 5,936 of you want to do the work https://t.co/cHNwUJEf9b


USDMXN wants to go above 19 sooooo badly

Summary: USDMXN strongly biased to break above 19; bullish USD vs MXN.

6% on USDMXN in 4 days was the most fun I’ve had in FX in a while. https://t.co/hZ0IEIafoR


Summary: Long TLT Dec 100 calls; plans to add and shorten duration if 10Y yield drops below 4.2%.

did a podcast.

https://t.co/H56nMZMomY

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btw the bond call options that I spoke about here from Oct to Dec that added a 22% gain to the portfolio from a 3% position…

Setup is kinda similar right now ngl.

I own a position in Dec TLT 100c but if we go below 4.2 on 10s will probably size that up and make it shorter.


This is the most obvious trump play that everyone (including myself) seems to have missed.

Summary: Long TXT as obvious beneficiary of Trump tariffs on Chinese golf carts.

Trump will no doubt slap a 100% tariff on Chinese golf carts.

Long $TXT?


JPY will get a safety bid in that scenario. BOJ is literally playing the waiting game on US recession. the only thing that matters in FX is interest rate differentials. if the fed is at ZIRP the carry trade is still a lot less attractive than it is rn.

Summary: Bullish JPY (short USDJPY): Fed cuts to ZIRP collapse carry-trade differential; BOJ awaits US recession, JPY gets safety bid.

@lexmutatio @hendry_hugh JPY will get a safety bid in that scenario. BOJ is literally playing the waiting game on US recession.

 the only thing that matters in FX is interest rate differentials. maybe BOJ goes to -25bps. if the fed is at ZIRP the carry trade is still a lot less attractive than it is rn.

@Citrini7 @hendry_hugh I’m gonna guess because the Fed is cutting aggressively RoW including Japan is even more fucked.


I think OUST is going to make me a lot of money

Summary: Bullish OUST; expects significant gains.


ridiculous top signal you're going to make me sell even more

Summary: Sarcastic dismissal of bullish China stocks pitch; implied bearish on Chinese equities.

Shanghai/China A-shares via ASHR ETF proxy

@Solanashots ridiculous top signal you’re going to make me sell even more

@Citrini7 Rotate some to the chinese stock market !

$SSEC

It’s making mooooovez 🇨🇳 https://t.co/6Gmzh3y9IX


Summary: Initiating long Hang Seng / short Nikkei pair trade.

today we remember Chua, who died so that long HSI/short NKY could live https://t.co/fA2jSZqrQL


Summary: Short VIX spikes, buy equity dips, and stay out of long USD/JPY for now (only a long-term eventual long).

@dampedspring @CostOfLeverage @abcampbell always short the VIX spike.

always buy the dip.

don’t necessarily get long dollar yen again.

---

@dampedspring @CostOfLeverage @abcampbell (I mean eventually do because “fuck yeah America” but like on a way longer timeframe than the first two)


eventually do because 'fuck yeah America' but like on a way longer timeframe


Summary: Bottom is in for Boeing; bullish from here.


Summary: Endorses taobanker's buyable picks #1 EL, #3 HII, #5 ULTA, #6 LULU from the list.

$EL is buyable
$TAP? also buyable
$HII? buyable
$HDSN buyable
$ULTA buyable
$LULU buyable
$MTN kinda buyable
$HEINY almost buyable

hope this helps


Summary: Planning to go long oil this week.


Summary: Regrets not buying more BABA; implicitly still bullish on the position.


Summary: Short CHF/JPY.

@Citrini7 Anyway, long USDJPY today for that extended  SN 16 pip carry.


none of you idiots are canceling your netflix subscription because you didn't have a good time watching the meme boxing match

Summary: Subscriber churn from the Paul/Tyson boxing event will be minimal; retention stays intact, implicitly bullish.

alright be realistic - none of you idiots are canceling your netflix subscription because you didn’t have a good time watching the meme boxing match


Summary: Considering buying TSLA calls as the highest-upside play on DOGE/macro concerns fading.

kind of vibing with the idea of buying some calls on tesla tomorrow, seems like something with the most upside to the DOGE macro concerns going away

could be a decent hedge if you’ve gotten shorter during the drawdown and aren’t ready to cover

open to thoughts


Summary: Long China / short India pair trade based on chart setup.

pretty good looking chart on long china/short india https://t.co/doyEVyH3Y3


Summary: Holds Haw Par long from $9; still in the position.

@LowAlphaHighVol own it at 9 from your pitch a couple years ago

will buy bulk tiger balm to cause the breakout

Haw Par creeping above $13 👀 last time we played this game in 2021 it didn't end well, perhaps there's enough value in it this time around to break out? https://t.co/uMJysSZKiW


Summary: Expects to buy AAPL back at a lower price; tactically bearish before the AI thesis plays out.

@GRoditiD @Dewi_Diligence yeah i agree w this i think i can buy it back cheaper before it starts playing out though

@Citrini7 @Dewi_Diligence i think even now your aapl wins AI by waiting out the cashburn stage and then taking the spot as the company people trust with selling them AI thesis is the best case ive seen for normal people paying for AI.


Summary: Bullish SPX to 5600 by end of Q1; author holds the target despite crowded bearish sentiment.

I’m worried I won’t get my SPX 5600 Q1 price target because people are way too bearish on the random number generator tmrw


I've owned ARQ, ARIS & TPL for the majority of the year

Summary: Discloses ongoing long positions in ARQ, ARIS, and TPL held for most of the year.

industry='Pollution & Treatment Controls'

@walter_schloss I’ve owned ARQ, ARIS & TPL for the majority of the year do those count?

I want to see you try to make money with oil stocks ...


Summary: Buying AMGN despite GIPR antagonism concerns; asymmetric risk/reward plus strong pipeline assets like Repatha.

@KinshasaKimodo That’s always been my concern re GIPR antagonism and why I didn’t own it in the first place. But honestly it’s too asymmetric now, so I am buying. We’ll see. Amgen has great assets otherwise, especially repatha.

@Citrini7 Nah. Listen to that conference call. They are hiding (in)tolerability data. That asset is torched.


Summary: Long BRL (expressed via BRLCHF) as a carry trade opportunity.

I might be nuts but I think BRL is a long here, maybe long BRLCHF (my inner carry whore yearns to be free)


Summary: Bullish CLS: NVDA's InfiniBand slowdown signals other networking companies gaining share, not weaker data-center demand overall.

Finance/markets can bring out some negative traits in people but one of my favorite things it makes you good at - the art of the quick convo.

Here’s a phone conversation I had that took 45 seconds last night post NVDA-call:

“infiniband growth slowing, networking sequentially down… do you think this is bearish for CLS?”

“it means that nvda isn’t dominating everything anymore and actually other companies are gaining share in networking…it’s not like the demand from data centers for it has any reason to be lower. so…”

“oh yeah…huh…this is probably bullish for CLS. probably bullish for some similar names too”

“yeah that’s where i’m at as well”

“cool, bye”

just a thing of beauty.


I think this dynamic will become increasingly apparent in the next month or so

Summary: Endorses taper-tantrum framework; expects not-great Q1 for equities over the next month or so.

If anyone remembers the taper tantrum of 2013 this is basically the same general framework for why I believe we’ll have a not great Q1 for equities.

In short, the taper tantrum was the market throwing a fit to ensure that policy actions which were perceived as negative for asset


The only bear case I've heard on this is that another player is going to displace them. Global commercialization makes that unlikely.

Summary: Long SPRY; global commercialization deal undercuts the only bear case (displacement risk), reinforcing bullish thesis from recent portfolio addition.

SPRY +4.5% (signs agreement with ALK to Commercialize neffy in Europe, Canada and Other Geographies Outside the United States)

The only bear case I’ve heard on this is that another player is going to displace them. Global commercialization makes that unlikely.

$SPRY was one of the biopharma names we added to the portfolio in the recent rebalance.

It’s kind of a layup.

I have seen lots of people freak out about administering epipens. Just the other day my gf had to give a kid having anaphylaxis an epipen on the subway because their


Summary: Buy TSLA as the primary Trump beneficiary play rather than digging into sleeper names.

@blondesnmoney i would love to engage in a trump beneficiary nerd out with you but i think you just buy tsla tbh

@Citrini7 do you want a real sleeper. a trump name no one has realized?

stagwell

former clinton advisor ceo, went out of his way to help trump. mark penn.

guess who just launched a government efficiency consulting subsidiary yesterday

stagwell


Summary: Agentic AI trust/brand moat favors MAG7 over upstarts on the consumer side.

@0riono @elevencapi on the consumer side having the trust and brand recognition will be a big deal, probably makes it harder for upstarts vs the MAG7

@Citrini7 @elevencapi The key is an agentic AI that customers want to use and feel safe to use.  So those who has the crucial data access to build, and could ensure safety/capable of mitigate risks using agentic AI. No one wants an AI making errors potentially and himself needs to clean up


Summary: Short SMH to fund longs in Phase 2 software/agentic AI enablers; deepseek seen as bearish for AI infra (Phase 1) and bullish for Phase 2.

This is the best thing CitriniResearch has ever done.

On Friday at 6:52AM, we published a note to our chat detailing our take on the implications of deepseek for the AI trade. Our conclusion was to go long Phase 2 (software/agentic AI enablers) and short SMH.

We spent the day going through our AI basket with a fine tooth comb. What could stay in if funded by short SMH, what needed to be added, what absolutely had to go.

Four minutes before the market closed on Friday, at 3:56pm, we published our finalized updated AI basket.

Our changes were drastic.

Our new additions: the AI basket was now ~50% short $SMH and long a collection of those Phase 2 software names - most of which closed green today.

Additionally, we expanded our deletions of data center buildout names despite already having deleted NVDA a month ago.

Without our community, we might have felt pressured to wait until we had an in depth piece filled with our analysis to pair with these changes, but we gave our subscribers a heads up and they gave us the all clear. Unlike previous updates, we felt enough urgency to release our trades first before the market closed and then release our analysis over the weekend.

Myself, @rennyzucker and @nicholastreece worked through the weekend to prepare that analysis in a way that accurately communicated a nuanced take while not slighting our high conviction.

On Sunday, we released our analysis. The conclusion: the intricacies aside, the market would take deepseek as extremely bearish for Phase 1 and generally bullish for Phase 2.

Within 12 hours, it was the most viewed article in our entire archive.

Today, the CitriniResearch AI basket was down 14bps.

if we had not made these changes, it would have been down more than 7%.

A huge thanks to everyone involved in this, I have never been more proud of our work, our team and our collective dedication to keeping our readers informed as to actionable and timely insights. 🥂

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Also, I really do feel a debt of gratitude to the @substack platform for the way in which we were able to handle this. Through the chat we were able to keep constant contact with our readers and update them in real time, rather than have them kept in the dark while we wrote.

---

This is going to seem insincere but it really isn’t - I don’t have a 100% hit rate obviously. But something I have been able to do well consistently in markets is recognize inflection points in sentiment. I was extremely worried I’d get a bunch of people long AI infra and then have them feeling like I lead them off the cliff.

I have been straight up paranoid about this since the day we published our first piece on AI beneficiaries.

I don’t know if this is the turn or a blip, the market has humbled me much harder than a scenario where SMH is up 10% tomorrow. But I am comfortable that we have demonstrated to our readers that we are on top of the threats to our views wherever they might arise.

Anyway, crazy week. It’s Friday, right?

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@substack It has been brought to my attention that in my post-4 day research marathon induced exhaustion I have posted the wrong images.

Here is us calling for a short on SMH to fund going long agentic AI and software enablers on Friday, not Saturday. https://t.co/j6Z6cQDfDO

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@substack going to sleep now. gn.


long a collection of those Phase 2 software names

Agentic AI/software basket: IGV, WCLD, ARKW


$NOW headquarters relocation is a solid short thesis

Summary: Short ServiceNow; HQ relocation seen as a valid short thesis.


Summary: Expects LQDT to double when DOGE begins actually liquidating government assets like office furniture and vehicles.

@BlueDuckCap this is gonna double the second DOGE starts actually needing to sell office chairs and cars and shit


Summary: Implies current positioning is underweight TSLA; author leans bullish.

Seems like none of us are long enough TSLA


Summary: Pair trade: long Hang Seng / short Nikkei, endorsing the quoted thesis.

JUSTICE FOR CHUA https://t.co/JKCRvI8DgG


the yen is a currency defined by many things but, for the purposes of the next year or so, the primary one being "not the dollar"

Summary: Bearish USD/JPY (bullish yen) over the next year as yen trades as a dollar alternative.

@nuancerocket the yen is a currency defined by many things but, for the purposes of the next year or so, the primary one being “not the dollar”


Summary: Bought AMGN after 12% selloff on what author views as perfectly fine data; bullish on the dip.

AMGN reaction is silly & dumb.

---

woke up with zero intention to own amgen by the end of the day and then you idiots went and sold it down 12% on perfectly fine data.


$REAL $10 by eoy price target seems a little less silly now doesn't it everyone

Summary: Reaffirms $10 EOY price target for REAL as increasingly credible.

$REAL $10 by eoy price target seems a little less silly now doesn’t it everyone…


$APP is such an amazing story and honestly perhaps a contender for the 8th "MAG" stock…

Summary: Bullish APP; calls it an amazing story and potential 8th Magnificent-7 member.

$APP is such an amazing story and honestly perhaps a contender for the 8th “MAG” stock…


Summary: Still holding remaining half of AMSC position with stops in; bullish on AI power demand rebound with AMSC as a high-beta play on it.

@MailmanQJ @WaterworldCapi1 we wrote a memo on Feb 6th announcing we had sold half our position on the pop after earnings. we still hold the other half. the selloff has not been AMSC specific it’s simply that AMSC has very high beta to the AI power narrative similar to like PSIX, GEV, ENR GY etc.

---

@MailmanQJ @WaterworldCapi1 it’s a pretty simple equation: if you’re still bullish on AI power demand and expect a rebound in the stocks as the market comes around to it, then AMSC is an amazing bet on that rebound.

i have my stops in on the remaining half. they have not been hit yet.


TSLA at 500 before the concerns began. No reason it couldn't go back if they go away and options seems cheap ish

Summary: TSLA could return to 500 if DOGE/recession concerns fade; options look cheap-ish as a hedge on existing shorts.

@NiceQuarterGuys I don’t know / think so. But I have a decent amount of shorts predicated on them not going away and thinking of ways to protect that.

TSLA at 500 before the concerns began. No reason it couldn’t go back if they go away and options seems cheap ish

@Citrini7 Are DOGE recession concerns going away?  How do you confidently gauge?


Summary: Would buy META at the next AI trough of disillusionment; super-voting structure insulates long-term execution from market swings.

@buccocapital this is probably why, when we hit the next trough of disillusionment, META will be the first thing on my shopping list

if 2022 taught us anything it’s that those super voting shares make sure the stock market doesn’t impact the execution of the longer term vision

History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme

Is this time different? We will see… https://t.co/P05IHoEoIa


Summary: Staying net long with index-put hedges; bullish on broad beta (SPY/IWM +30% scenario), VRT, and healthcare/medtech cyclical inflection basket.

my priorities have pretty much shifted as of today. i am moving away from pushing the envelope risk wise and towards protecting & preserving this year’s profits.

i have been 70%+ net long for more than two years and 100%+ net long for the majority. this is not the “i’m bearish now” post.

this is just me sharing that im willing to get ripped off likely overpaying for index puts that will go to zero. i’m willing to pay up for downside protection right now. and if you’re doing really well, you should be too.

we’re putting jet fuel in the tank and stepping on the gas - either we go really f**king fast or the engine blows up. either way, I am down to pay a bit extra for the car insurance before we find out.

the last red sweep we had coincided with SPY going up 27% over the next 12 months. IWM gained 35% from nov ‘16 to nov ‘17.

i don’t know if that repeats itself but if I think that beta alone can have me up +30% from here in just a year from now, well…

bet your ass I’m willing to give up more than a little of that. as long as it means I don’t end up shaken out of a massive trend for some stupid little macro or earnings overreaction. as long as I have the capital to buy the dip when the long side becomes so crowded that any incrementally not great news is likely to be perceived as a massive negative catalyst…i can content myself with giving up quite a bit of it.

the second pic below shows my performance as I gave up -5.6% vs SPY from May to July, overpaying for hedges that became worthless.

i’d do the same thing over again because when they didn’t go to zero, they & other negative theta/positive vega macro trades were the only reason I was able to buy the dip aggressively in my highest conviction areas like VRT and medtech/healthcare on august 5th. i still ended up selling down some AI exposure, but not nearly as much as I would have if I didn’t have some cover.

did it suck to be down in Q2 while mega cap tech ripped despite being bullish on AI myself? yeah. of course it did.

but it paid off because i didn’t let myself get caught offsides. instead, i got to bust out the shopping list on names in a long term thematic (healthcare’s cyclical inflection) basket that are up 39% collectively since.

unless you’re content to buy and not look at the screen again for a decade, part of a long term view is making sure you have the psychological wherewithal to withstand underperformance despite conviction when the cause is unrelated to your thesis.

i’ll take sideways for 6 weeks while everything rips 10% over down 20% when everything drops all day, everyday. especially if it means I get to be the bidder of last resort when there’s a firesale in obviously inflecting names.

all I’m saying is: if you’re killing it right now, it is probably time. it’s time to hedge yourself so you are comfortable enough to ride late cycle beta (which is, subjectively speaking, the best beta).

give up some of it proactively so you don’t give up a lot of it reactively.

don’t be the guy that panic sold SPX 3200 Sep-Oct 2020 and never got the chance to get back in at those prices. don’t be the guy that spends the rest of the cycle looking for reasons to be correct in hindsight while everything he once owned makes new all time highs.

beta that doesn’t go down as much as the market during drawdowns IS alpha.

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https://t.co/gurMPhT0W9


IWM gained 35% from nov '16 to nov '17. i don't know if that repeats itself but if I think that beta alone can have me up +30% from here in just a year from now


i got to bust out the shopping list on names in a long term thematic...like VRT


healthcare's cyclical inflection basket that are up 39% collectively since

Medtech/healthcare basket: IHI devices + XLV broad health


The AMGN reaction makes AMGN long quite asymmetric from here. and again, repatha is a great asset and i don't mind owning amgn here while i find out.

Summary: Long AMGN: post-reaction asymmetry, AMG-133 as niche GLP-1 solution for TZP-plateau patients, plus Repatha as durable asset.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

this was too harsh. the reaction is not silly and dumb. but imo it is not an accurate representation of where value can be accrued in the GLP-1 space currently.

AMG-133 probably will have worse side effects. Especially at higher doses I imagine the n/v will be worse than semaglutide.

The thing is though, some patients don’t experience n/v with GLP-1s at all. And I think the more I look at it the more I see the case for GIPR antagonism to result in more sustainable weight loss that lacks a significantly pronounced and immediate rebound effect. I also think it’s quite possible that AMG-133 does not have plateau as soon as TZP and Sema, which (on a patient by patient basis) is extremely important. If you have a patient that needs to lose 50% of their body weight or find their way to a guaranteed early grave, you are kind of screwed right now if they just stop losing weight at -20% on either TZP or Sema.

AMG-133 seems like it can be commercialized. Maybe it ends up being that this is the one that’s preferred for longer term significant weight loss in the morbidly obese population.

There are tradeoffs in every drug. The market is looking at this situation like it is a race to get the best drug for every single outcome. That’s not the case.

The most accurate example I can come up with here is Lipitor. Atvorstatin was a huge winner and, for a while, the only winner in the statin space. Market reactions clung to data on lipid profile alone. But what they missed was that the opportunity was not in cloning lipitor but in the niches.

Rosuvastatin & Pravastatin are examples of this. Lipitor skyrocketed because it was the most efficacious, but some others either worked in the cases where lipitor didn’t or the cases where liver was a concern.

Anyway, “silly and dumb” was my own overreaction. I will rephrase:

The AMGN reaction makes AMGN long quite asymmetric from here.

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honestly, there are a lot of patients who are plateau’d on tirzepatide and still need to lose weight, but they’re in a position where the drug isn’t working anymore and going off causes a rebound.

the downregulation of GIPR by TZP may play a role in this (increased GIPR receptor density is linked to worse weight outcomes).

chronic GIPR agonism can also produce desensitization and ultimately loss of GIPR activity that mimics antagonism.

so really, AMG133 would be the perfect solution for this patient population. maybe this is what amgen is thinking - let TZP become wildly popular as AMG133 is approved, then do a study that shows AMG133 is able to break TZP plateau in a way that other drugs cannot. maybe galaxy braining this but seems like they’re playing the long game.

and again, repatha is a great asset and i don’t mind owning amgn here while i find out.


Summary: Recommends rotating into Chinese AI as the next move.


Summary: Bullish JPY / bearish USDJPY; endorses a drop to 130 handle.

the children yearn for the mines

dollar yen yearns for a 130 handle

usdjpy so badly wants to just drop to 130 one of these days


Summary: Soft bullish lean on JPY vs USD; author thinks yen should be stronger than September 2024 levels.

maybe this is just me but i kind of feel like the yen should be stronger versus the dollar than it was back in…september 2024


Summary: Short CHFJPY 100%, long BRLCNY 50%, and long 10-year Treasuries via 5s10s30s butterfly.

@rev_cap 100% short CHFJPY 50% long BRLCNY

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@rev_cap rates: long 10s on 5s10s30s fly


US 10-year Treasury rate exposure via IEF ETF


Summary: Author is buying PRMB on a self-described 'incredibly stupid thesis'.

the company that owns saratoga is public as $PRMB if any of you feel like investing on an incredibly stupid thesis this week

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before you ask: yes, of course i’m going to


it would be super cool if the embedded option here could end up itm

Summary: Long SE via calls expiring 9/15/26; hoping the embedded option ends up in the money.

Speaking of converts I'm long SE 1/4 9/15/26 as well.


Summary: Pair trade: long Japanese TOPIX banks, short the broader TOPIX index, likely on rising JGB yield thesis.

@BobertBedford long topix banks short topix

@Citrini7 Treasury yields fall, we'll be aight.

10Y JGBs at 4.30 and you better hope you've made enough to buy a bunker!


think it's time to start covering, but open to hearing reasons why that might be wrong

Summary: Author signals it's time to start covering the SMH short, implying a shift toward closing/reducing the bearish position — effectively a near-term long lean.

think it’s time to start covering, but open to hearing reasons why that might be wrong

Earlier this week we literally doubled down on this view.

We increased the size of our $SMH short from January 24th by 2X and carried it through NVDA earnings at a -14.25% weight in our model portfolio—it is our largest single position by far.

Today was a good day. https://t.co/rncHhAi4qg


I'm going long the dollar vs G7 on Monday

Summary: Going long the US dollar against the G7 basket starting Monday.

I’m going long the dollar vs G7 on Monday


Summary: Plans to get short the S&P 500 around the 5600 level.

@chiwizardry I will get short again around 5600

@Citrini7 Everyone updating their YTD numbers premarket makes me want to sell everything


USDJPY puts/yen future calls since they're probably equally asymmetric in deflation

Summary: Long yen / short USDJPY as asymmetric deflation play, similar to bond calls.

@KrisAbdelmessih with rates where they are it is going to just be bond calls. i remember asking this about AI and saying “besides NVDA” but the answer was still just NVDA.

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@KrisAbdelmessih but I’ll say USDJPY puts/yen future calls since they’re probably equally asymmetric in deflation.


Summary: Bullish European fiscal/defense basket; trend just begun and broadening out; implicitly underweighting SPY relative to EU defense.

European defense basket: Rheinmetall, Airbus, BAE, Leonardo, Saab

The ReArm europe announcement kind of forced our hand to publish, but we believe this trend has just begun.

European Fiscal Primacy basket vs. SPY 1 week performance: https://t.co/t8Azcoj1zA

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here’s performance with our EU vs US Defense basket from March 2024, showing that the rally is broadening out https://t.co/QKMqnWrtcK


European Fiscal Primacy basket vs. SPY 1 week performance


Summary: Expects S&P500 to pull back to ~5600 in Q1.

@Citrini7 We going down to 5600 before inaug?


Summary: ServiceNow may work long-term but too difficult to own over the next 12 months; implied avoid/underweight.

@PythiaR it’s going to work LT but it might be too annoying of a stock to own over the next 12 months

Not an expert but seems to me $NOW  admitted the ROI of AI was currently not yet strong enough to charge a huge sub price and that was hindering adoption.

But the addition of consumption on top of sub (they aren’t replacing sub, they’re adding to it) means ProPlus subs are now


Summary: Bullish BABA; Qwen 2.5 VL competing with OpenAI Operator prompts author to add more.

LMAO Qwen 2.5 VL can perform Computer Use, out of the box, taking on OpenAI Operator HEAD ON! 🐐 https://t.co/lwMECXzNSu


Summary: Trimming HIMS position after +51% run; bearish lean from here.

gonna sell some of this HIMS now i think.

On October 30th, I sold GLP-1s (majority was in $NVO & $LLY, both had doubled or more) but kept on + increased size in $HIMS.

Spent a lot of time thinking about this decision, mostly scared it was stupid & I’d regret it.

But so far, so good:

LLY -12%
NVO -7%
HIMS +51% https://t.co/zbHDbNOFQ0


if I was actually smart (I'm not) I'd have not just sold but flipped short

Summary: Implies SMCI heading lower; regrets not flipping short, endorses the bearish chart setup over coming months.

if I was actually smart (I��m not) I’d have not just sold but flipped short.

SMCI chart looks like, over the next few months, it’s going to make me look like a genius for selling when I did.


Summary: Endorses bearish Q1 equities view: tariffs will be forcefully enacted causing asset price pain before becoming negotiating leverage.

Chekhov’s gun - if you put a gun in act one, it should be fired by act 3. These are Chekhov’s tariffs.

Trump put the gun on the table during his campaign. We all knew he would hit the ground running. The gun had to be fired.

He wants to make a point and does not care how much pain in asset prices or economy is required to do so for now. Make people bleed early on, so they remember the DXY bludgeon for the remainder of his term.

There’s no reason Trump can’t double the tariffs tomorrow. He’s going to make sure their use is received, decisive moves like this make the process of negotiation easier (as opposed to the “sword of damocles” tariff threat).

Then (and only then) can tariffs be a loaded gun that’s never fired. The thing that the case of “tariffs are a negotiating tactic” missed was that chekhov’s gun has to be fired before the closing scene.


ross ulbricht's release will spark the monero catch up trade

Summary: Ross Ulbricht's release is a catalyst for Monero to catch up; bullish XMR.

@hedgefundgay ross ulbricht’s release will spark the monero catch up trade

@Citrini7 Citroni Pepperoni daily altcoin research published


just because something is obvious (trump volatility causing bad stock returns in the beginning of 2025) doesn't mean it won't happen

Summary: Endorses bearish Q1 2025 equities outlook; Trump volatility will weigh on stock returns.

just because something is obvious (trump volatility causing bad stock returns in the beginning of 2025) doesn’t mean it won’t happen


if you're a 'buy and forget' investor it's a great spot to overweight some

Summary: Healthcare sector worth overweighting for long-term investors despite near-term rate sensitivity drag.

@DeepDishEnjoyer healthcare’s rate sensitivity causing it to die but if you’re a “buy and forget” investor it’s a great spot to overweight some


looking at potential crypto deregulation winners & recalled they'd provided debit cards for crypto

Summary: Bullish MCB as a crypto deregulation beneficiary; short thesis found unconvincing and has since disappeared.

Just went back to look at $MCB as I am looking at potential crypto deregulation winners & recalled they’d provided debit cards for crypto.

Surprise, surprise - the short thesis that tried to capitalize on the banking panic doesn’t even exist anymore.

Careful who you listen to. https://t.co/XjbMnIRrOF

Just read the short thesis on $MCB.

I am thoroughly unconvinced. It touches on some so-so strings and loose connections, but never really delivers the killing blow. A few points:


bitcoin: digital gold / beneficiary of changing global order but also will rip if we go risk on pretty asymmetric

Summary: Long BTC: asymmetric upside as digital gold, macro hedge, and risk-on beneficiary.


Summary: S&P500 rips to ~6200 by year-end, then drops back to 5600 in Q1 2025.

wrong prediction, guaranteed:

no big drawdown but couple of days of panic in quick succession by end of month, followed by

crazy rip, close the year at 6200ish

Q1 25 down back to 5600


Summary: Long AMSC; thesis is playing out as expected.

AMSC thesis playing out

https://t.co/2AL0kMHn90


Summary: Pair trade: long software (IGV) / short semiconductors (SMH) as the core expression of the call first flagged Friday.

@gmfunkman @bsedyou Listen man I am sorry you missed the trade but if you wanted to and were on top of it you could have easily just put on long IGV short SMH in size when we first mentioned it on Friday, there was at least an hour left in the regular session at that point.

@bsedyou @Citrini7 I'm a sub who missed it. I'm sure there are others that did too. There were over 50 trades we needed to do to get the updates in to Citrindex. Not doing that in 4 minutes, and not messing with tiny stocks in after hours.

Kind of hurts how much he's shilling it for us that missed


you could have bought CQQQ which is not sanctioned but closer to HSTECH, up 14% since and will be more like 16-17% after tomorrow's open catches up with current chinese equity prices

Summary: CQQQ up 14% and expected to gain another 2-3% at tomorrow's open as it catches up to current Chinese equity prices.

@aeybobby you don’t need to worry about what i can and can’t trade

you could have bought CQQQ which is not sanctioned but closer to HSTECH, up 14% since and will be more like 16-17% after tomorrow’s open catches up with current chinese equity prices

@Citrini7 Also good to know you can get around the sanctions and buy HSTECH given two of the names are restricted for US investors (SMIC / sensetime)

Assume you are European


Summary: Incremental AI functionality keeps terminal value abstract, bullish for AI-exposed equities broadly.

Global AI sector; broad ETF basket BOTZ/AIQ/ARKQ

as long as we keep getting incremental functionality like this, the terminal value proposition of AI is something that will remain abstract (good for stocks)

A research preview of Operator, an agent that can use its own browser to perform tasks for you. https://t.co/wkBBDIlVqj


Summary: Went long futures; no specific instrument named.

went long some futures https://t.co/hWn2LoY4G2


Summary: Endorses skepticism toward NVDA bear case; implied bullish lean.

Be skeptical about the negatives with Nvidia...


Summary: Implies contrarian long signal in tech/equities given crowded bearish sentiment, analogizing to early-2023 contrarian tech long.

I remember going on Jack’s podcast in early 2023 and having the YouTube comments section basically be a litany of hate mail because I had pitched tech as a long off AI & ChatGPT.

Might be some signal here…

"Everyone's already too bearish" I disagree

My audience *hates* my view that Trump tariffs likely to cause a financial crash.

They say 1 of 2 things:

1) I'm a chicken little & they're buying the dip

2) yes, Trump will wreck markets, but this is a good thing https://t.co/35QsRAB8A7


Summary: Doubled down on SMH short to -14.25% of model portfolio, largest single position, carried through NVDA earnings.

Earlier this week we literally doubled down on this view.

We increased the size of our $SMH short from January 24th by 2X and carried it through NVDA earnings at a -14.25% weight in our model portfolio—it is our largest single position by far.

Today was a good day. https://t.co/rncHhAi4qg

This is the best thing CitriniResearch has ever done.

On Friday at 6:52AM, we published a note to our chat detailing our take on the implications of deepseek for the AI trade. Our conclusion was to go long Phase 2 (software/agentic AI enablers) and short SMH.

We spent the day https://t.co/fvjZdfxp2S


Summary: Endorses riding the RHM defense bubble higher; be long during the bubble.

Rheinmetall AG listed on XETRA Frankfurt

@cultivatedbeta you have to be bubble maxxing during the bubble cb

Now: Broker hikes RHM pricetarget by 40% based on Munich Security Conference takeaways.
Soon: RHM trades at 3x sales vs Palantir at 78x.
Disclosure: read Soros, see bubble, but not long.


usdjpy so badly wants to just drop to 130 one of these days

Summary: Bearish USDJPY; expects a drop toward 130.


Summary: Consistently bearish on PYPL; first principle is to always fade it.

Opining outside of my circle of competency but I can say that if the validators picked Paxos it would be bullish for PYPL, and nothing is ever bullish for PYPL, therefore native markets will win.

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first principles thinking wins again (the first principle is just to always fade PYPL)

https://t.co/RuD7hOdAZN


Summary: Author's Phase 2 basket expected to outperform SMH going forward.

@Lordvultures I’m just showing performance from when we released the in depth primer / article on 4/22.

We shifted our basket’s allocation away from SMH and towards Phase 2 winners on 1/24/25, but I figure benchmarking to the article release date is better.

This will outperform SMH imo. https://t.co/FmTTn7DPUA

@Citrini7 Yea I know I’m just saying ur 3 week timeframe is a bit selective


we've owned $MOB in our Drone/Electronic Warfare basket since June and highlighted the opportunity in our August State of the Themes. Continues to be one of the more asymmetric plays on this theme.

Summary: Long MOB as a high-asymmetry play on drone/electronic warfare theme, held since June.

Great write up by @BlueDuckCap - we’ve owned $MOB in our Drone/Electronic Warfare basket since June and highlighted the opportunity in our August State of the Themes. Continues to be one of the more asymmetric plays on this theme.

We are long Mobilicom, $MOB. "Unleashing American Drone Dominance" was signed June 6th. The future of warfare is clear; end to end cyber security for drones has never been more critical. That's what $MOB does - validated by an elite spot on the Blue UAS list. 5x upside  pt.


Summary: Buying LLY dip ahead of earnings expected to crush in a week.

selling LLY because NVO is blaming anything besides not doing their job well is so silly. nice dip to buy for when LLY crushes it in a week.


always pick the most degenerate security

Summary: Endorses FNMA as the degenerate pick; implied long.

@dalibali2 @nope_its_lily @eliant_capital FNMA is more degenerate and thus more my style


Summary: Expects a brief ~5% drawdown over coming weeks, then ATH breakout mid-late July with a run to ~6400.

wrong prediction, guaranteed

quick drawdown over the next few weeks, 5%ish nothing crazy

break through ATH mid-late July & vertical to ~6400


gonna sound like a broken record here but slightly underwhelming nvda earnings very good for continued small cap outperformance

Summary: Slightly underwhelming NVDA earnings supports continued small cap outperformance; bullish IWM thesis.

if momentum unwinds and large cap tech gets hit, small caps will outperform (see IWM v SPY performance in 2001-2003).

if the economy goes pedal to the metal, small caps will outperform (see IWM v SPY in 2020-21).

seems asymmetric.


Summary: Short EURUSD; Europe's lack of major tech exposure (Microsoft, Meta) cited as rationale.

I forget, how much microsoft and meta does europe have again?

(short eurusd)


Summary: Hesitantly getting long natural gas, echoing quoted interest with self-deprecating forward lean.

lord forgive me for i know not what i do https://t.co/xARWKLCOqJ

Getting interested in natural gas https://t.co/l3aOUYZpe4


We've been pretty vocal AMD bulls this year

Summary: Ongoing bullish stance on AMD, reaffirming position as vocal bulls this year.

We’ve been pretty vocal AMD bulls this year - here’s our most recent commentary in our August State of the Themes https://t.co/MgPznYNlQy

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gg @rennyzucker


Summary: Bullish on small caps (IWM) as asymmetric outperformer in both risk-off and risk-on scenarios.


Summary: Prefers broad Chile ETF and BCH over individual EM stock picks on Chile breakout.

@marketplunger1 ECH & BCH because every time i get cute in EMs I get smoked

Don't look now.

But Chile is breaking out!

What's your favorite Chilean stock? https://t.co/qgmjeGoPFF


Summary: Sarcastically lists ever-expanding reasons BTC goes up, implying asymmetric long thesis holds regardless of macro regime.

updated list of things bitcoin goes up because of:

future of finance
fear of bank runs
collapse of USD global reserve currency status
microsoft and meta beat earnings

bitcoin: digital gold / beneficiary of changing global order but also will rip if we go risk on

pretty asymmetric


Summary: Implies AMN needs to double from here; soft bullish lean on the stock.

@P_Remarks only fixed when AMN doubles imo

@Citrini7 More broken than ever but we don’t let that stop us


don't try shorting these while we are still doing the overbuilding

Summary: Endorses data-center infrastructure basket as unshortable while 10GW+ build-out continues; no overearning risk until overbuild phase ends.

I think the reason this is hard to comprehend is because “1GW” means absolutely nothing to most people. Every time you read that just replace it with:

“600 football fields filled with cables, fiber, pipes,  generator sets, transformers, chillers, switchgear, cable trays, fuel tanks, batteries, copper busways, electrical components (2N redundant), pumps, air handlers, fire suppression systems, all the fancy actual computing gear and 200,000 tons of other equipment that collectively consume enough electricity to power the city of Seattle and must reject a level of waste heat 24/7 that creates thermal plumes visible on weather radar”

I’m of the mind that, like every other cycle, we will overbuild capacity. But for the love of god don’t try shorting these while we are still doing the overbuilding.

As long as this continues the way they plan (and it will, we haven’t even gotten into the crazy debt financing part yet), there is no “overearning”. There is “I need my shit and I need it now and whoever gets it done gets paid”.

There are just some names that can’t really stay down as long as we are continuing to genuinely build 10GW+ of data centers from the ground up.

Vertiv, GEV/Siemens Energy, Primoris, Emcor, Legrand, Corning, Prysmian, Quanta etc…

Once you understand the scale involved, you


Siemens Energy AG listed on XETRA Frankfurt


Primoris Services Corp, Nasdaq ticker PRIM


Prysmian SpA listed on Borsa Italiana Milan


A not insignificant number of names in the robotics supply chain were (understandably) still pricing in some degree of tariff risk. Should be a good day for them tomorrow.

Summary: Robotics supply chain names to rally tomorrow as tariff risk gets priced out.

Robotics supply chain via ROBO, IRBO, BOTZ ETFs

Exploring the humanoid robot investment opportunity from macro to micro.

beep boop

https://t.co/qPSAXaLgYN


Summary: Holds BTC and HYPE as current crypto positions.

@Citrini7 do you hold any crypto (if possible to provide obv you dont have to)


Summary: Long TER; up ~45% since July feature but author sees significant upside remaining, endorsed by Susquehanna.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Teradyne ($TER) was the featured “above the fold” long for our July robotics update. It has gained roughly 45% since then and, imo, still has significant upside.

Glad to see Susquehanna agrees. https://t.co/2Mdjw2bnNp

Update released

https://t.co/hQPtDnO95v


Summary: Author vouches long cattle and S&P500 ('moos & spoos') have been strong performers; implied continued bullish stance.

people thought this was a joke but nobody’s laughing now that long moos & spoos have crushed it for 3 years straight https://t.co/cRUjHHqDWx

The chart of cattle looks like a compound bro stock 🐄 https://t.co/Mdv3FntKGa


Summary: Long small caps (IWM) vs large-cap tech (SPY) as asymmetric trade in both risk-off and growth-acceleration scenarios.

if momentum unwinds and large cap tech gets hit, small caps will outperform (see IWM v SPY performance in 2001-2003).

if the economy goes pedal to the metal, small caps will outperform (see IWM v SPY in 2020-21).

seems asymmetric.


Summary: Author expressing growing bullish interest in natural gas.

Getting interested in natural gas https://t.co/l3aOUYZpe4


Summary: Long SIG as a play on the upcoming wedding surge.

So @Citrini7 what's the best trade for the this upcoming surge of weddings sure to come after this?


if jeans are becoming a political statement i think it's probably good for both AEO & GAP, liberals wear jeans too

Summary: Jeans becoming a political statement is net positive for both AEO and Gap as demand broadens across political groups.

@ConsensusGurus if jeans are becoming a political statement i think it’s probably good for both AEO & GAP, liberals wear jeans too.

@Citrini7 But Janice said... https://t.co/o0LXWTN7Dp


Summary: Adds HAYPP (Swedish-listed) to the tobacco outperformers list as a bullish pick.

Haypp Group AB listed on Nasdaq Stockholm


Summary: Added to long OUST in robotics basket; also bought INTC despite ongoing disappointment.

increased our long on OUST yesterday in our robotics basket which is nice, but also bought some INTC which is, as expected, being a disappointment

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abusive relationship vibes with intel at this point


bought some INTC which is, as expected, being a disappointment


VRT & CLS should be up more if we're taking the capex guide at face value imo

Summary: VRT and CLS are underpriced given the capex guide; both should trade higher from here.

VRT & CLS should be up more if we’re taking the capex guide at face value imo


Summary: Holds only HYPE and BTC among crypto assets; long both.

@Pasta_Capital @ThinkingUSD hyperliquid pilled me a couple months ago and now HYPE & BTC are the only two crypto assets I own

@Citrini7 Highly Hyperliquid coded tweet