$ORCL's philosophy and strategy, leading to monopoly-like profits from clients locked into its high maintenance and high cost legacy databases, seems anathema to the #blockchain technology world.

Summary: Bearish ORCL: its lock-in/high-cost legacy model is incompatible with blockchain, undermining its enterprise strategy.

$ORCL’s philosophy and strategy, leading to monopoly-like profits from clients locked into its high maintenance and high cost legacy databases, seems anathema to the #blockchain technology world. https://t.co/Cmk7vgBNSG

Oracle's Entrance: Database Giant Unveils Enterprise Blockchain Strategy https://t.co/gT6QPwTD8d https://t.co/IFzdxBqM9a


Summary: Long TSLA; not concerned about tonight's print, confident Musk can scale Model 3 production.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

If @elonmusk can mastermind this #SpaceX landing, he can figure out how to scale Model 3 production.  I am not concerned, no matter what the print is tonight. https://t.co/ch42g3BQkv

Falcon Heavy side cores have landed at SpaceX’s Landing Zones 1 and 2. https://t.co/oMBqizqnpI


Summary: Bullish NVDA: dominates AI training and gaining ground in AI inference, an open-ended growth opportunity.

$NVDA owns #AI training...and is making serious incursions into #AI inference, an open-ended opportunity, with China's #Huawei. https://t.co/2iFsbsJ6z6

First time I see NVIDIA with an inference design win—16x P4 cards in one box (?!) on Huawei cloud. https://t.co/yh6o7Fzv3a


Significant proof of concept for Bitcoin!

Summary: Bullish on BTC; endorses US Space Force Major's Bitcoin-as-defense-strategy pitch as significant proof of concept.

US Space Force Major urges Defense Department to adopt Bitcoin as an 'offset strategy' Lowery suggested that Bitcoin and its underlying PoW technology could serve as contemporary tools in an offset strategy, potentially redefining the landscape of cyber warfare and defense.7


Summary: If deflation is the bigger risk (as author believes), long-duration stocks and bonds are the biggest beneficiaries; fade higher-for-longer inflation bets.

Long duration bonds; TLT is 20+ year Treasury ETF

According to Bloomberg’s diversified commodity price index, commodity prices today are where they were 40 years ago and are resuming the deflationary trend in place since 2008. This chart is nominal, not inflation-adjusted! https://t.co/Pjv5fuE1OJ

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Focused on years of near zero percent interest rates, many investors are betting higher for longer on inflation and interest rates. They are betting against long duration fixed income and equity strategies. This chart is beginning to fly in the face of that outlook: Kondratieff?

---

If deflation is the bigger risk today, as we believe, then pricing power will disappear and big wage hikes will not feed inflation, but will slam margins.

---

Long duration stocks and bonds should be the biggest beneficiaries in that environment.


Long duration equities; ARKK is best available proxy


Summary: Names GBTC as the best blockchain investment in response to the poll question.

What's the best #blockchain #investment? $IBM is in the mix, $JPM, who else? Let me know so I can put a poll together! #fintech #stocks $spy https://t.co/FAIxpbvPCi


Summary: Endorses GBTC as the sole regulated-vehicle play on Bitcoin; bullish on both BTC and GBTC.

Yes...$GBTC is the only way to play #bitcoin in an #IRA, #ETF, or any other financially regulated portfolio. https://t.co/lytlZFeBTa

This simulation from @lvb suggests that if you plan to only sell your $BTC at >$20,000, you're better off putting $GBTC in a Roth IRA today. https://t.co/QFkZG4G9Ka


Summary: Bullish Bitcoin: contrasts BTC's soaring purchasing power against dollar's decline, implicitly endorsing Bitcoin over Kurzweil's skepticism.

The purchasing power of the #dollar has plummeted over the years, while the purchasing power of #bitcoin has soared. https://t.co/JdW0XHf4Xt

Ray Kurzweil ended @xfinance with a bitcoin bombshell: "I wouldn’t put my money into it." https://t.co/svnKV41HaE with @singularityu #xfin https://t.co/GEcVdg83FM


Summary: Bearish oil on accelerating EV adoption destroying demand; bullish TSLA on surging sales growth vs. declining overall auto market.

Oil commodity; USO is standard ETF proxy

Not only is the Nasdaq 100 heavy with FAANG but it added another $FANG, Diamondback Energy, when it rebalanced in December. Meanwhile, the oil price has been cut nearly in half since March. According to our research, electric mobility will continue to destroy oil demand.

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Recently, Hertz said that its EV maintenance costs are 50%+ lower than gas-powered vehicle costs. Now I understand why several of my recent Uber drivers have rented Tesla cars. In other words, electric vehicle miles traveled are rising faster than expected, destroying oil demand.

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Innovation solves problems and gains traction during tough times. Last year, total auto sales dropped 8% as electric vehicle sales soared. Tesla’s auto sales increased 40% during the fourth quarter and for the full year.


Tesla's auto sales increased 40% during the fourth quarter and for the full year


Summary: Copper signaling global economic momentum; USD adding to the upside.

Copper commodity; CPER is copper ETF proxy

Dr. #Copper is telling us that the global economy is gaining momentum, and that the #USDollar is turbocharging it. https://t.co/OL9nF6qSEd


Summary: Bullish SHOP: earnings show it is capitalizing on agentic AI in retail.

Based on its earnings report last night, $SHOP seems to be seizing the agentic AI moment in retail. Great foresight and insights in this blog, @GrousARK  and @varshikaARK!

AI agents may soon make our buying decisions. Will marketplaces adapt or fade into the background? In part two of our series on their evolution, @GrousARK and @varshikaARK explore how marketplaces can compete by optimizing price, inventory, and delivery.

https://t.co/PpWVM8kPMj


The difference between linear and exponential growth rates should continue to throw analysts' forecasts for $TSLA and other EV manufacturers off course

Summary: Bullish TSLA: exponential EV adoption curve will push unit volumes far above consensus forecasts, implying analysts are underestimating growth.

The difference between linear and exponential growth rates should continue to throw analysts’ forecasts for $TSLA and other EV manufacturers off course. In terms of units, the difference will approach 40 million (59 million-21 million) by 2027.

3/That diffusion curve suggests roughly 59 million EVs sold globally in 2027, which is in line with ARK's expectations.

A linear forecast of the past few years suggests ~21 million EVs sold globally and is in line with some other EV forecasts. https://t.co/9U6xrpWoGs


Counting down to an important moment in the AI revolution, as Tesla showcases its Cybercab robot and its plans for scaling autonomous mobility globally! Institutional investors seem skeptical, but individual investors understand.

Summary: Bullish TSLA on Cybercab/autonomous mobility platform; ARK sees ~90% of valuation driven by robo-taxi over 5 years, Cathie endorses against institutional skepticism.

The final countdown to Cybercab is on. We believe an autonomous taxi platform could unlock a multi-trillion dollar market and drive ~90% of Tesla's valuation over the next five years. When will this happen? See our estimate in @tashaARK's new article ⬇

https://t.co/X3i2w8R4uJ


If @ARKInvest is wrong about $TSLA's autonomous opportunity, then it won't be a 10+ bagger...just a double, if @skorusARK's research is correct

Summary: Long TSLA: even the bear case on autonomy implies a double; bull case is 10x+.

If @ARKInvest is wrong about $TSLA’s autonomous opportunity, then it won’t be a 10+ bagger...just a double, if @skorusARK’s research is correct.

1/ @CathieDWood wrote a thoughtful letter on why $TSLA should stay public. Here's a quick walkthrough of a valuation of its #EV business, even though the #autonomous opportunity could dwarf its pure hardware business, which @TashaARK explains.


Summary: Bullish US equities broadly: deflation driven by innovation could push bull market beyond 1980s cycle if inflation drops below 1%.

Good #deflation...caused by disruptive innovation!  If #inflation trends to <1% as a result, this bull market will top that of the 80's. https://t.co/uBcGYrWUyd

“The Fed did not get what it wanted”: Prices for several US consumer goods & services fell in June for a 3rd month #inflation @business https://t.co/G8TB3DQ4Iv


Summary: Long TSLA on camera-only AV approach beating Waymo (GOOG) and Cruise (GM) on simplicity/elegance.

$TSLA's simple, elegant, brilliant solution should beat $GOOG's #Waymo and $GM's #CruiseAutomation.

This tells a story

Tesla:
0 LiDAR
1 RADAR
8 Camera

Waymo:
3 LiDAR
4 RADAR
8 Camera

GM/Cruise:
5 LiDAR
21 RADAR
16 Camera


$TSLA's simple, elegant, brilliant solution should beat $GOOG's #Waymo

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: Bullish Tesla on autonomous taxi and freight truck potential displacing rail; endorses Elon's narrative.

Thank you, @elonmusk, for taking the floor from old tired boring short-sighted questions and allowing a retail investor to shine a bright light on your amazing story: autonomous taxis transforming personal transport & autonomous taxi trucks taking the freight market from rail. https://t.co/ah2ryKzQtm


Summary: Endorses Laffer's view that Bitcoin could be the most positive step forward in global monetary history; bullish long-term.

Dr. Arthur Laffer, of Laffer Curve fame, also is a monetary scholar, mentored by Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell. He believes that bitcoin - the return to private rules-based money - could become the most positive step forward in global monetary history.

Claim: "Bitcoin has no intrinsic value"

Counter-claim: Bitcoin is a contender for the role of a global money.

While bitcoin's value drivers differ from traditional assets, it's incorrect to assert that it has no intrinsic value. Its characteristics as a monetary asset underpin


Summary: Bearish AAPL and GOOG: ChatGPT plugins disintermediate App Store take rate and displace Google search.

In @ARKInvest's view, AI is turbocharging disruptive innovation, with plugins disintermediating Apple's App Store and its 15-30% take rate, as ChatGPT displaces Google search! $AAPL and $GOOG rank #2 and #3 in the $QQQ and account for ~20% of the Nasdaq 100 Index.

Plugins for processing a video clip, no ffmpeg wizardry required. Actual use-case from today's launch. https://t.co/Q3r2Z8fRS5


Summary: Bearish AT&T: wrong side of disruptive innovation, wireless revenues declining.

$T is on the wrong side of #disruptiveinnovation:  #Wireless revenues went down last quarter on a year over year basis. https://t.co/D5un9XD2vP

AT&T posted a revenue decline in the final quarter of the year as it continued to lose phone subscribers https://t.co/oEI3cy27mg


Summary: Long BIDU as one of the biggest beneficiaries of autonomous taxi networks in China via AI expertise and partnerships.

@ARKInvest agrees. $BIDU should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of #autonomous taxi networks in China, thanks to its partnerships and its expertise in #artificalintelligence. https://t.co/I6vOOsXsJV

Baidu thinks autonomous-car maps could be bigger business than search in China. https://t.co/hYx0eaH20d


$AMZN has called out advertising as a primary focus. With a powerful search engine at the point-of-sale, #Amazon will take share in this highly profitable space.

Summary: Long AMZN: advertising revenue will take share from Google/Meta in highly profitable ad market, driven by point-of-sale search advantage.

$AMZN has called out advertising as a primary focus. At only $2.8 billion in 2017 Amazon's advertising revenue was a fraction of $GOOG's $95 billion and $FB's $$) billion. With a powerful search engine at the point-of-sale, #Amazon will take share in this highly profitable space. https://t.co/PLXT7IKqxq

Amazon has 2x the number of ads as Google for many products.
# of ads:
Vacuum cleaner: Google 5, Amazon 10
Men's socks: Google 5, Amazon 11
Dining chair: Google 6, Amazon 9


Amazon's advertising revenue was a fraction of $GOOG's $95 billion


Summary: Bearish US gas-powered auto sales: consumer preference shifting to EVs and used-car inventory glut will pressure traditional auto.

US auto sector; CARZ is global auto ETF proxy

In our view, China is a leading indicator of a change in the consumer preference for EVs. In the US, gas-powered car sales are likely to struggle, especially now that used car inventories, as measured by Manheim, are roughly 40% above normal at wholesale and retail.

China passenger auto sales were up 4.4% to 20.1 million units in 2021, but that headline is a bit deceiving.

Gas powered car sales were actually down roughly 4% while, battery electric vehicle sales were up ~145%. https://t.co/i3JmqhHxab


Summary: Bullish BTC: claims it has demonstrated antifragile properties over the past two years.

#bitcoin has been behaving like it's antifragile for the past two years. https://t.co/DGy5gdGhu4

#antifragile systems grow from stress. the question then becomes, do you believe #bitcoin is antifragile? https://t.co/4OJXUwB41M


Summary: Implies doubt about euro's long-term viability, framing European bank stock implosion as a warning sign for the currency.

I expected emerging markets with vulnerable currencies to ban #crypto, but I did not expect the same from developed counties.  Are France and Germany getting concerned about the long term viability of the #euro? Based on the implosion of their bank stocks, perhaps they should be.

favorite moment of the week - france and germany issued a statement that they intend to block @facebook's Libra

and i quote "no private entity can claim monetary power, which is inherent to the sovereignty of nations”

... and so it begins

https://t.co/IYq5hWTEK4


Summary: Reaffirms bullish stance on Tesla; argues court ruling overstepping shareholder rights will be overturned.

Based on her @TSLA ruling, DE Judge McCormick is an activist judge at its worst. No judge has the right to determine CEO compensation. Shareholders voted twice, overwhelmingly each time, to ratify @elonmusk’s 2018 performance-based pay package. She will lose this fight in Supreme Court. I stand by my original response supporting #Tesla and Elon:

I believe the Delaware court decision, forcing #Tesla to void the March 2018 vote on Elon Musk’s performance-based pay package, is un-American, an assault on investor rights, and an insult to the Board of Directors of one of the most stunningly successful companies in US history.


Tesla is leading the 'charge' in three, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 4-5

Summary: Bullish TSLA as a leading player across 3-4 of five major converging innovation platforms driving a potential Roaring Twenties-style expansion.

The echo is more like the early 1920s, after a pandemic and a war - the Spanish Flu and WWI - as three major innovation platforms were evolving into mass market opportunities - electricity, telephony, and the automobile, contributing to the breathtaking “Roaring Twenties”

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In response to a supply chain- and war-related surge in inflation, the gold standard forced the newly formed Fed to drain money from the economy, pushing pricing from a 24% inflationary peak in June 1920 to a -15% deflationary trough one year later in June 1921.

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Now, inflation - which peaked in the 8-10% range last year - is likely to surprise on the low side of expectations this year, dropping below 2% and perhaps turning negative. The banking crisis could lead to “bad deflation” while innovation generates “good deflation”.

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Today, five major innovation platforms are evolving at the same time - multiomics sequencing, robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology, all of which are converging! Tesla is leading the “charge” in three, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4-5.

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Once the Fed stops looking backwards at CPI inflation and starts addressing the deflationary banking crisis that a 19-fold increase in short rates and an inverted yield have caused, we would not be surprised to see a return to the Roaring Twenties.

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Innovation solves problems. Truth will win out!


Summary: Bullish ILMN: declining sequencing cost curve + S-curve sweet spot will drive rewards.

#Illumina refocuses on the declining cost curve for #DNA sequencing and will reap the rewards of the sweet spot of the #S-curve...! $ILMN https://t.co/CqPMwHiROG

$ilmn new sequencer! Promises To Sequence Human Genome For $100 -- But Not Quite Yet #JPM17  https://t.co/RGYkuopAWx


Summary: Bullish PYPL: Venmo expansion to 2M+ US retailers strengthens network effect.

We will be able #Venmo more than two million retailers in the US, another boost to the the $PYPL division's network effect. https://t.co/rFiKi8dl4T

PayPal rolls out Venmo payments to its U.S. retailers https://t.co/33htzbcA0F


The #Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve, with traditional financial heavyweights filling in the blanks for regulators. Taking "two steps forward, one step back," regulators should be ready to take another two steps forward now

Summary: Bullish Bitcoin as ICE/NYSE involvement signals regulatory progress and continued ecosystem maturation.

The #Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve, with traditional financial heavyweights filling in the blanks for regulators. Taking  “two steps forward, one step back,” regulators should be ready to take another two steps forward now that $ICE, which owns the #NYSE, is on board. https://t.co/apEG6KhRLY

"ICE Joins the Rush into #Bitcoin... ICE said it would join with startup @blockstream to launch a datafeed [with] more than 15 exchanges.. the move could help draw more financial heavyweights into the risky, rapidly evolving world of bitcoin" https://t.co/yFeosGPtN0 @aosipovich https://t.co/R6CHgLkSwH


Summary: GM going all-electric validates ARK's EV sales forecast; implicitly bullish on GM's EV transition.

According to our research at https://t.co/4ySCUnH7CM, i n 2022 #EVs will be cheaper than a $TM Camry, catapulting sales from 0.5 mm units in 2016 to 17mm, 4-8X times most other estimates.  $GM is validating that estimate, despite the fact that its Chevy #Bolt didn't sell. Hmm. https://t.co/jYYp73yYeL

General Motors Is Going All Electric https://t.co/q9mfowDi0f via @WIRED


Summary: Bullish BIDU: deep learning and autonomous vehicles focus may revive its search business.

$BIDU is laser focused on #deeplearning and #AutonomousVehicles, both of which may resurrect its search business. https://t.co/RJzqsULjjg

Proud to announce our paper "Deep Voice 2: Multi-Speaker Neural Text-to-Speech" is accepted for #nips2017 spotlight! https://t.co/DcITKIhMFJ https://t.co/EQnPdWD0GS


Summary: Bullish Nintendo; franchise strength underestimated by most investors.

Nintendo listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange as 7974.T

industry='Electronic Gaming & Multimedia'

#Nintendo and #Pokemon Go still seem to have a lot more power than most investors anticipated. https://t.co/72jdOLXyvA

Niantic postpones its Pokémon Go events in Europe after its Chicago festival ended in disaster https://t.co/9pFYHKBGxS https://t.co/iwPZuZIJRj


Regulatory clarity is bullish for #bitcoin and #ether. These #cryptoassets soared despite bad news in Q4'17. They are sinking despite good news in Q4'18. The odds look good here.

Summary: Bullish BTC and ETH: regulatory clarity is a tailwind and current dip despite good news looks like a favorable entry.

Regulatory clarity is bullish for #bitcoin and #ether. These #cryptoassets soared despite bad news in Q4’17. They are sinking despite good news in Q4’18. The odds look good here.

SEC’s Jay Clayton at #ConsensusInvest:

#Bitcoin a security? No.
#Ether a security? No.
#Ripple a security? No comment. https://t.co/VfXoao8emk


Summary: Author names TSLA, GOOG, BIDU, AAPL, TM, GM as beneficiaries of network effects and geographic monopolies in autonomous driving.

$TSLA, $GOOG, #Didi, $BIDU, maybe $AAPL, should benefit from the #networkeffect and natural geographic monopolies.  $TM and $GM have a shot. https://t.co/e4a9Ud5BMn

1/ Enjoying the Information's coverage of #autonomous this week. Would argue $TSLA is higher up the list though. https://t.co/y4OPb7VZAT


maybe $AAPL, should benefit from the #networkeffect and natural geographic monopolies


Another overreaction in the gene editing space $NTLA!

Summary: Cathie Wood calls NTLA selloff an overreaction, implying the stock will recover.

Deciphering the Clinical Continuum: Contextualizing Intellia's ($NTLA)Grade 4 Liver Event


Summary: Bullish TSLA over Waymo on autonomous taxi opportunity; research suggests Tesla better positioned to capture robotaxi market.

#Uber, #Lyft* and #Didi have taught us that delighting the customer causes business to boom.  Will Waymo delight?  Our research suggests that $TSLA has a better shot.  *I did not add that emoji and can't get rid of it.  Clever, Lyft. https://t.co/aIry9x8Lo1

If #Waymo launches #autonomous taxi service with no driver this fall, that will be huge. https://t.co/w7VcmuZhWf


passing along the lower costs associated with technologically-enabled innovation, in #Tesla's case batteries and drivetrains, will cause a boom in unit demand

Summary: Bullish TSLA: price cuts reflect tech-driven cost reduction that will drive a boom in unit demand, rebutting Munger's BYD-over-Tesla preference.

Charlie Munger and many on Wall Street do not understand that passing along the lower costs associated with technologically-enabled innovation, in #Tesla’s case batteries and drivetrains, will cause a boom in unit demand, discrediting the Keynesian/Fed’s Phillips Curve model.

Charlie Munger on why he prefers an investment in BYD over $TSLA: "That's easy, Tesla last year reduced its prices in China twice while BYD increased its prices. BYD is so ahead of Tesla in China it's almost ridiculous. If you count all the manufacturing space BYD has in China to https://t.co/iIsQIbJvfQ


Summary: Bullish BTC long-term; calls it one of the most important investment opportunities of this generation, urging regulatory clarity for institutional participation.

Regulatory clarity is critical.  We hope the Senate Banking Committee offers the SEC and the CFTC enough perspective that institutional investors will have an opportunity to participate in one of the most important investment opportunities of this generation! https://t.co/9Xxw0SUpjH

If you didn't HODL as #bitcoin hit long term support at $7900 then you got PWND... https://t.co/HR1FoTKi9H


Summary: Bullish EDIT: management change seen as positive signal that Editas is ready to move from lab to clinic.

We respect Katrine Boswell enormously and, while she raised the profile and credibility of #gene-editing and $EDIT enormously in the last five years, this management change suggests that #Editas is ready to scale from the lab into the clinic which, in our view, is very good news!

@ukladinla @CathieDWood @CNBCFastMoney Great questions. This is not a buy or sell recommendation, but it is of my belief that one should look at the data that is being produced rather than getting distracted by a management shuffle. Management is very important, of course! But the replacement is also impressive.


Summary: Bitcoin gaining remittance market share (20% in SKorea/Philippines corridor) signals growing adoption; implied bullish.

Good market for #bitcoin:  according to Bluepan, the #remittance market in the SKorea/Phillipine's corridor already is 20% bitcoin. https://t.co/HsHUqB6tM6

Migrants sent half a trillion dollars home last year. These maps show where the money went https://t.co/yTbDd3vkN7 #migration https://t.co/SnQKgrMK50


Summary: Bullish on US economy/equities: expects a gobsmacking V-shaped recovery driven by record savings rate and inventory drawdowns.

Yes. A gobsmacking V-shaped recovery seems likely thanks to the record-breaking 33% consumer saving rate combined with a Q1 inventory drawdown that was 4 times the original report and the 3.6% retail inventory drawdown (not annualized) in April alone. Buckle up!

April savings rate was 33% next highest month was May 1975 @ 17.3% 🤯🤯🤯....helps explains record breaking brokerage account openings. Signal that consumers are chomping at the bit to spend @CathieDWood??


we project that @Tesla's Optimus will begin to transform factory life, then home life, in 2028/2029

Summary: Bullish TSLA: ARK projects Optimus transforms factory then home life by 2028/2029 on first-principles approach.

According to @ARKInvest’s research, humanoid robots are 200,000 times more complex than robotaxis to develop. Given Elon’s first principle’s approach and dogged determination, we project that @Tesla’s Optimus will begin to transform factory life, then home life, in 2028/2029.

Elon Musk on why Optimus is so brutally hard to build (hardware side):

“The hands are the majority of the engineering difficulty of the entire robot.”

Human hands evolved insane sophistication — ~27–28 degrees of freedom, complex tendon web (mostly forearm muscles), crazy https://t.co/5eFfexzyHA


Summary: Long TSLA: positioned as Apple-analogue first mover in autonomous, poised to capture bulk of profits in the space.

Happily for $TSLA investors, @tim_cook missed the reincarnation of $AAPL when @elonmusk approached him while experiencing “production hell” with the Model3. An #EV is the ultimate mobile device.

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#Tesla took a leaf from #Apple’s business plan when it designed its own  #AI chip. Apple designed its own smartphone chip when #QCOM was catering to Motorola, Nokia, and Ericsson, none of which understood that phones could and would become smart.

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#Tesla dropped $NVDA, not because its GPUs missed the move toward #autonomous, but because the design cycle of $GM, $BMW, & #TM was 4-5 years longer than that for Tesla. Catering to large auto manufacturers, Nvidia was not moving fast enough for Tesla.

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As first mover, Apple still generates the bulk of profits in the smartphone space globally. In our view, Tesla could do the same in the #autonomous space, certainly in the US and perhaps elsewhere as well.


As first mover, Apple still generates the bulk of profits in the smartphone space globally


Summary: Long AMD and NVDA: multi-theme GPU demand (AI, AVs, VR/AR, blockchains) will continue to strain capacity.

#Ethereum adds to the demand for #GPUs: $AMD and #NVDA. AI, autonomous vehicles, VR, AR, & blockchains will continue to challenge capacity. https://t.co/Gogsb2c7dV

Mining for Bitcoin & Ethereum: Price Boom Leads to AMD GPU Sell Out https://t.co/PYQyLF8pyA https://t.co/2IwPCrpOPy


long term, though longer term than I expected, oil prices will collapse under the weight of lower demand

Summary: Long-term bearish oil: accelerating EV adoption will destroy demand and collapse prices, though on a longer timeline than originally expected.

Oil demand probably did hit a secular peak in 2019. The supply shock caused by the energy insecurity policies of the current US administration, ESG mandates globally, and now Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has raised prices to a point that will accelerate demand destruction.

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I got the supply shock wrong. That said, the accelerated shift toward electric transportation will destroy oil consumption at the margin. Long term, though longer term than I expected, oil prices will collapse under the weight of lower demand. Innovation solves problems!


Summary: Bearish Alphabet on AI vulnerability in search; bullish Microsoft/OpenAI as the disruptive iPhone-moment threat.

Provocative. During the last few years, I have expressed my frustration with Google search, deeming it primitive AI, notwithstanding Alphabet’s DeepMind expertise. OpenAI/Microsoft’s ChatGPT is the “iPhone moment” of this decade, changing everything. Disruptive innovation!

The innovator’s dilemma
Google’s dominance in search *is* its vulnerability


OpenAI/Microsoft's ChatGPT is the 'iPhone moment' of this decade, changing everything


Summary: Bullish on innovation/growth strategies; rotation into value has strengthened the bull market and sets up another leg up.

Because the risk of inflation has grabbed headlines and increased investor fears of a bear market in equities, especially innovation-based strategies, we would like to share @ARKInvest’s differentiated point of view.

In our view, the rotation from growth into value stocks has broadened & strengthened the bull market significantly, preventing another tech & telecom bubble & setting the stage for another leg up in innovation-based strategies.

New blog by @CathieDWood! https://t.co/djJZKFivz0


Summary: ARK raises TSLA conviction in 5-yr model despite COVID; UBER and LYFT seen suffering as Tesla ride-hailing fills the gap.

.@ARKInvest would like to share our five-year TSLA model, this time adjusted for the impact of the #coronavirus. If anything, our conviction in #Tesla has increased. As $UBER and $LYFT suffer from #COVID-19, #Tesla’s ride-hailing should be able to fill the gap, boosting its CF.

Updated our open source Tesla model extract...

https://t.co/UcAHeBgJEe

Great work by @skorusARK and @TashaARK (and the whole team) builds off of the blog here:

https://t.co/DOH208DRio

Also incorporates anticipated coronavirus impact and adds monte carlo model. https://t.co/ULonL3xunB


Summary: Even a >50% BTC drawdown would leave the bull market intact; structurally bullish on Bitcoin.

$XBT could drop more than 50% now and still be in a strong bull market. https://t.co/rGot1e7b8f

can you spot the 2013 crash https://t.co/kYbUavM9Lf


Summary: Battery cost deflation from China EV race is bullish for TSLA as a key input price falls.

If so, the price of one of $TSLA's primary inputs will decline: good news. https://t.co/0KnXAF5JcQ

Will China's push for EV batteries cause a similar race to the bottom that happened with solar cells? https://t.co/nbYIeCsjfC


The US is on the threshold of a bull market much like that at the start of the roaring 20's!

Summary: Bullish on broad US equities; calls it the threshold of a roaring-20s-style bull market.

.@ARKInvest  would be happy to debate @TruthGundlach any time.  The US is on the threshold of a bull market much like that at the start of the roaring 20’s!

Gundlach's last big call was in April when he said to go long $XOP and short $FB. He nailed the second part but unfort $XOP down even more, so losing trade so far.. https://t.co/xUdk22biN4


Summary: Bullish US equities; record outflows are a wall-of-worry signal that strengthens and extends the bull market.

The equity market is climbing the wall of worry, which will strengthen and extend the bull market.  Ironically, if the flows were one way, the market’s strength would depend on weaker and weaker hands.  Battle tests are good, bringing back investors with conviction. https://t.co/LGdBOqfH7J

Investors withdrew $22.9 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds during the first week of February, the highest total on record https://t.co/o423c2Io1u https://t.co/fTzUyNPftp


Summary: Endorses bullish equities view; wall of worry building the next bull market.

S&P 500 index; SPY is standard ETF proxy

Great chart @fundstrat!  I love the wall of worry....building the bull market in equities. https://t.co/Qgx92jVbhu

MACRO: trade tensions causing stock volatility to rise to highest since 2009 but bond/USD vol are below avg.  This divergence >2.5 std dev happened one other time since 1980, feb 1997-nov 1998... proved to be a major buy signal. AAII sentiment collapsed too. Stock over-reacting. https://t.co/P9vTjnyhCP


Summary: Cathie Wood bullish on Bitcoin's profound impact on humanity.

Episode 1 of the Bitcoin Brainstorm brings to life the profound impact that bitcoin is likely to have on humanity. By the end of it, truth be told, I had goosebumps. Thank you Rod @bitkite and Yassine for hitting a home run in your first at-bat!

Episode 1 of the Bitcoin Brainstorm is here. An incredible conversation about building and scaling on Bitcoin, featuring:

@CathieDWood
@jackmallers
@PrestonPysh
@harry_sudock
@obi
w/ co-host @bitkite

The future of Bitcoin is bright.

https://t.co/ZHKiAS19cI


fear of another one is a healthy 'wall of worry' for #cryptoassets

Summary: Bullish crypto: the tech/telecom bubble fear is a healthy wall of worry, not a reason to bail.

Broad crypto; BTC and ETH as primary proxies

Yes, as a PM in the tech/telecom & housing bubbles/busts, I believe that fear of another one is a healthy "wall of worry" for #cryptoassets. https://t.co/XFCTVNO3Sh

If you want to compare #cryptoassets to the tech & telecom boom bubble, then realize we are < 5% of the way there. https://t.co/kIacTPVD9k https://t.co/c5kQ8dd1y3


Summary: Bullish EDIT and AGN if CRISPR in-body trial delivers sight-restoration milestones, transforming healthcare into a cures sector.

If $EDIT and $AGN can deliver milestones in this CRISPR trial showing that children born blind are gaining sight for the first time, then the “health care” sector will take on a profound new dimension: cures.

A trial using CRISPR inside the body (instead of in a lab dish) is about to get underway in the U.S. The hope: finding a treatment for an inherited form of blindness. By @MMarchioneAP
https://t.co/qEfrqKLTO4


If it follows the $AAPL model, as competition revs up $TSLA will lose share of units but will account for 80-90% of the profits in the #EV space. Sounds right to me.

Summary: Bullish TSLA: expects it to mirror Apple's model—lose unit share but capture 80-90% of EV profits long-term.

People think Tesla is a zero because competition is coming. Competition *is* coming. We *expect* Tesla to lose 2/3rd of their current share. But the result is not a sales collapse. We expect Tesla to follow the footsteps of Apple—lose share and retain the top end of the market. https://t.co/Mv0KQsInoM


Summary: Expects VIX to rise alongside stock prices as investors deploy excess cash balances.

VIX volatility index; VIXY is tradable ETF proxy

The risk that has not been eradicated could be in cash balances.  If they are too high and investors start capitulating, the #VIX will go up in tandem with stock prices.  Back to the ('90s) future.... https://t.co/X1RgySvFxG

Volatility Index ends the day at 9.19, its lowest close in history. Risk has been eradicated. $VIX https://t.co/cXY998oxFV


Summary: Bullish BTC: implies it is becoming crypto's reserve currency with powerful network effects.

Is #BTC becoming the reserve currency of #crypto?  If so, powerful network effects! https://t.co/QjR4OwnzDC

We're just one step away from @CashApp enabling users to easily get paid in BTC by non-Bitcoiners. All they need to do is add an "auto-convert received USD to BTC" option. https://t.co/6D3K7SVjQx


Summary: Autonomous taxi networks will favor Waymo/GOOG; INTC and MBLY risk losing out on the $2T AV opportunity by pushing liability formulas.

#Autonomous taxi networks will gravitate towards $GOOG and #Waymo if #INTC and $MBLY try to force this issue.  In other words they will lose out on what #ARKInvest believes is a $2 trillion revenue opportunity. https://t.co/c3QJpl8BHP

$MBLY takes opposite approach of $GOOG and gives formula for determining when its not liable for autonomous crashes. https://t.co/uNIQmWpcAR


#INTC and $MBLY try to force this issue. In other words they will lose out on what #ARKInvest believes is a $2 trillion revenue opportunity


Summary: Views current S&P selloff as healthy bull-market consolidation that extends the uptrend.

The return of fear is battle testing the bull market in equities, a healthy development which will extend its life! https://t.co/WrQJ1G6mkp

DB says three consecutive weeks of S&P down, bond yields up hasn't happened since 2004... and has only happened three times in the last 20 years.


Summary: Bearish AMZN/GOOG/FB: decentralized strategies will disintermediate their centralized data-aggregation monopolies.

$AMZN, $GOOG, $FB and others capitalized on the centralized model of data aggregegation.  Decentralized strategies will disintermediate them https://t.co/7NtrAkyKlx

@jmonegro 4/ Even "good companies" that invest heavily, like @google or @amazon, end up creating monopoly networks w/ insane leverage 4 future profits


Summary: Peak oil demand arrives before 2030 driven by EVs + autonomous electric taxi networks; bearish long-term oil demand.

Add in #autonomous electric taxi networks, and peak #oil demand will occur befor the turn of this decade! https://t.co/bEGBPBs3pj

Our research suggests the uptake in #EVs alone is likely to lead to peak oil demand by 2025. https://t.co/iJiQbPtbty https://t.co/wHT81hbUP5


Summary: Bearish UBER and LYFT: autonomy will destroy their business models and both are seriously overvalued; many IPOs will fail on private-to-public valuation gap.

$Uber’s and $LYFT’s disappointing debut seems to be impacting “innovation” stocks more broadly.  Two problems nullify that relationship:

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First, $UBER and $LYFT no longer are innovators, as #autonomy will destroy their business models.

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Second, given the serious overvaluation in private relative to public equities, many more $IPOs will fail. We see many like for like companies valued in the private markets at 2-15 times those in the public markets as measured on price-to-sales.

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Moreover, the games played with valuation in the later rounds of financing understate the true valuations being paid in the venture world.

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I have been as surprised to learn about these games in the private equity world as I was to learn about CDOs squared in mortgage bonds circa 2006-07.


Summary: Bullish TSLA; if research is correct, stock could be a moonshot.

Hey @elonmusk - You know that I agree with you on many topics, but not this one: shorts and longs make the market for stocks. If our research is correct, $TSLA could be a moonshot. Truth will win out.

@FCalciu @derekGUMB @Scobleizer @Tesla @SEC_Enforcement Exactly. Short-sellers are value destroyers. Should definitely be illegal.


as $TSLA passes on the cost declines associated with its battery pack systems, its market share of all auto sales has increased nearly 50%

Summary: Long TSLA on battery cost pass-through driving ~50% market share gains; short legacy OEMs losing money on EVs as ICE erodes.

Most #auto makers are competing with discounts in the mature end of the market and would be thrilled with a 0.1% increase in market share. As $TSLA passes on the cost declines associated with its battery pack systems, its market share of all auto sales has increased nearly 50%!

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Moreover, to compete with #Tesla, traditional auto manufacturers, which have much higher cost battery solutions, will lose money on every #EV sale they make...at the same time that their #ICE-based business is disappearing.


to compete with #Tesla, traditional auto manufacturers, which have much higher cost battery solutions, will lose money on every #EV sale they make...at the same time that their #ICE-based business is disappearing

Traditional automakers global basket; CARZ proxy


bitcoin would become the new age hedge, serving a noble role alongside gold and silver

Summary: Bitcoin as inflation hedge if banks activate reserve kindling and inflate; bullish BTC alongside gold/silver.

The 50 years ending in the Roaring Twenties also spawned more transformational innovation than any other period except now: yield curves were inverted more than 50% of the time, with the steepest inversions during periods of most rapid growth thanks to “good deflation”.

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How will banks respond to inverted yield curves that will crush their net interest margins, not to mention online services like the #CashApp by $SQ and #Venmo by $PYPL nipping at their heels and #Marcus by $GS with high interest-bearing accounts aiming for their heads?

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Banks could activate the $3 trillion+ in fiat “kindling” that has accumulated in reserves at the Fed during the past 10 years. With an aggressive push into variable rate loans, they could arrest the decline in money velocity and raise the specter of inflation once again.

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In that environment, #bitcoin would become the new age hedge, serving a noble role alongside #gold and silver.


its base business is stagnating and its high-margin Apps platform could be disintermediated by ChatGPT plugins. Given these risks, $AAPL's call options must work in a big way to justify this valuation

Summary: Bearish AAPL: base business stagnating, App Store margins at risk from ChatGPT disintermediation; upside options must pay off in a big way to justify current valuation.

Apple offers big calls options in payments and health care, BUT its base business is stagnating and its high-margin Apps platform could be disintermediated by ChatGPT plugins. Given these risks, $AAPL’s call options must work in a big way to justify this valuation.

Apple $AAPL is now larger than the combined market cap of all the stocks in the Russell 2000 https://t.co/3TLzInwvtw


Summary: Bullish on CRISPR gene-editing names CRSP, NTLA, BEAM, PRME; ARK disagrees with consensus that one-time cures are bad business.

Thank you, @Shea_ARK, for surfacing the potential value of one of the most important biology breakthroughs of our time: CRISPR gene editing. Many analysts seem to think that one-time cures will not be a good business, @ARK Invest begs to differ! $CRSP, $NTLA, $BEAM, $PRME

Cardiovascular disease is the world’s leading killer. With CRISPR-based therapies targeting lipid metabolism genes, a one-time treatment could reshape prevention and open a ~$2.8T market. Read @Shea_ARK's analysis in her first ARK research paper.
https://t.co/pHfVMI9Oh2


Many analysts seem to think that one-time cures will not be a good business, @ARK Invest begs to differ! $CRSP, $NTLA, $BEAM, $PRME


Summary: Bearish Uber (take rate collapses to <5% as robo-taxi lead gen) / Bullish TSLA as the dominant autonomous taxi network in the US.

@FOCUS_ON_RISK Strong brand, yes, but its take rate is likely to drop from 20-25% to 5% or less as a lead generator for autonomous taxi networks like the one that @ARKInvest believes $TSLA will dominate in the US.

@CathieDWood Uber is a verb... Don't count out strong brands. Plus think how profitable Uber would be if they raised prices by .50 which wouldn't hurt demand.


its take rate is likely to drop from 20-25% to 5% or less as a lead generator for autonomous taxi networks

Uber Technologies listed as UBER on NYSE


Summary: Long TSLA: 3-4+ yr lead in battery costs, chip design, autonomous data assets; $25K next-gen EV could drive massive demand growth beyond ARK's 60M unit forecast.

Tesla’s goal has been to drive prices down and increase #EV adoption. At Investor Day (3/1), Elon could announce a step-function drop in pricing, much like he did for the Model 3, to ~$25,000 for the next gen EV. Gas-powered vehicles boomed at that price point.

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Based on the historical demand response to a $25,000 price point in gas-powered vehicles, ARK’s forecast that EVs will scale from ~8.5 million in 2022 to 60 million units - 75% of the market - during the next five years could be too conservative.

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Moreover, in our view, Tesla remains 3-4+ years ahead of the competition in battery costs and is in a world of its own in chip design and data assets for autonomous mobility: think Apple chip design for smart phones vis a vis Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson, and Blackberry. New world.


Summary: Bullish global EV sector; expects continued market-share gains from ICE vehicles.

Global EV sector; DRIV is global EV/autonomous ETF

In our view, EVs will continue to take share from gas powered vehicles globally, as they did throughout 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. Great perspective, @akaash_ARK!

Don’t let the noise drown out the signal. While headlines claim electric vehicles are dying, the facts tell a different story—they’re gaining momentum. See the numbers for yourself in our new research blog from @akaash_ARK.

https://t.co/OIui5uRdNu