Summary: Bullish PYPL on network effects from 17M merchants driving growth.

Mobile #payments are exploding in Asia, thanks to #Tencent and $BABA.  Now, $PYPL is enjoying the network effect thanks to 17mm merchants. https://t.co/he76fcUHpB

Record revenues, volume, and net new actives for @PayPal in Q2:
>$100B in TPV
One Touch > 60M users
$36B mobile TPV  https://t.co/Y8Rgi0Lnmi


Summary: Bullish BTC: ARK views Spot Bitcoin ETFs as a hedge against both inflation and deflation/counterparty risk amid Fed policy mistakes and China exporting deflation.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Gold was not the only commodity to soar after regulators approved the gold ETF. In fact, gold underperformed many other commodities. The Fed stoked broad based commodity price inflation by easing aggressively in response to the implosion of Long Term Capital Management in 1998…

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…and then easing more aggressively in 1999 in response to Y2K, the fear that — ill-prepared for the transition from a 1 to a 2 handle at the turn of the Millenium—computers and the economy would shut down globally at midnight on 1/1/2000…

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…and easing even more aggressively during the tech and telecom bust from 2000 to 2003, even though most other parts of the economy were doing just fine.

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In contrast, during the past two years, the Fed has hiked interest rates at a record-breaking rate, pushed money supply growth into negative territory for the first time since the 1930’s and inverted the yield curve for the past year and a half, raising the odds of deflation.

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Interestingly, during the regional bank crisis last March, as the regional bank index (KRE) imploded with Silicon Valley Bank and others, the bitcoin price shot up 40%+,  validating our view that it is a hedge not only against inflation but also against deflation.

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Unlike money center and regional banks a la 2008, bitcoin—a global, decentralized, transparent, private, rules-based monetary ecosystem—is not subject to counterparty risk. Last year in March, we learned that bitcoin is unique: not only a risk-on asset but also a risk-off asset.

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In @ARKInvest’s view, Spot Bitcoin ETFs could be a hedge against inflation but are more likely to be a hedge against price deflation and counter-party risk, not only because the Fed has made mistakes but also because China has compounded the problem and is exporting deflation.


When $TSLA's solution enters the market next year, the transition is likely to shift from "slowly, slowly" to "all at once"

Summary: Bullish TSLA on robotaxi market entry next year expected to rapidly accelerate ride-hail disruption.

With a tiny fraction of cars compared to Uber and Lyft, Waymo is beginning to disrupt the raid-hail market in San Francisco. When $TSLA’s solution enters the market next year, the transition is likely to shift from “slowly, slowly”  to “all at once”. Can’t wait!

Waymo's market share is now equal to Lyft within SF. Incredible.

Network effects is one of the best sources of defensibility. But it's proven to be not that important in ridesharing.

You need a minimum network size, but once you have that, there are diminishing returns. In https://t.co/0l0fKk9qoC


Summary: Dollar strengthening will limit manufacturer pricing power; bullish USD view.

...though the #dollar will curb this move higher. https://t.co/8ukvuW0XfA

And pricing power for manufacturers is surging. https://t.co/AvibmjjKje https://t.co/0vMAbzXstc


Summary: Bullish US biotech sector: RFK-led HHS shift from sick care to early diagnosis/cures could significantly revive returns.

US biotech sector; XBI is standard ETF proxy

Investors in the health care/multiomics space seem to be missing an impending shift from “sick care” to early diagnoses and cures, championed by Robert Kennedy and new HHS talent like Scott Steele. This shift could resuscitate ROIs in the biotech space significantly.

FDA shakeup: Scott Steele is now acting director of CBER.

Unlike his predecessors, Steele isn’t an MD — but a molecular biologist turned science policy expert with deep White House + FDA experience. He co-authored a key 2022 paper advocating agile regulatory ecosystems to


Summary: Bullish TSLA: dismisses pure-auto valuation concerns, positioning it as a SaaS/TaaS company disrupting traditional auto.

Ah, we forgot to mention in our analysis of batteries, artificial intelligence, robots, and autonomous systems that, as it disrupts most other traditional #auto companies, $TSLA is an #EV company morphing into a transportation-as-a-service (think SaaS) company.

@ARKInvest You understand that at $4000/share  that values this company at almost $700B? For a car company that’s outrageous


Summary: Tax reform + deregulation to boost US ROIC, attract capital, push dollar up and end commodity price rally.

#TaxReform and deregulation should increase the absolute and relative ROIC in the US, attract capital back to the US, drive the #dollar up, and knock this record streak in commodity prices off track. https://t.co/Yq4SyQ6NZG


knock this record streak in commodity prices off track

Broad commodities; DJP is diversified commodity ETF


Summary: Bullish on ILMN and NVTA as beneficiaries of genomic revolution fixing wasteful healthcare spending.

More than half of #healthcare spending is wasted, at best:  science-based decisions will rescue us in the #genomic revolution! $ILMN $NVTA https://t.co/ogKjZe4Lgk

. @EricTopol on what we get for $3.4T: >60% False +s in screenings, 1/4 Inpatients harmed, 12M Dx errors, 75% drug unresponsive #BigDataMed https://t.co/nc5suImhDM


Summary: Bullish BTC: institutional infrastructure (futures, options, custody) evolving faster than expected, good for investors seeking uncorrelated assets.

#bitcoin is an important part of a new asset class.  the financial services ecosystem necessary to catapult it into prime time - futures, options, #custody - is evolving more rapidly than I expected.  Good news for investors looking for uncorrelated asset classes! https://t.co/Mn5ZKtp8qD

Meet @Coinbase Custody:

"Coinbase Custody is only available to institutional investors with a minimum of $10M in deposits”

This is a major point in the life of Bitcoin answering the huge demand and requirements of institutional investors.

https://t.co/vPHdzZ46tp


Summary: Bullish US equities for years as Trump tax cuts + DOGE resolve near-term uncertainty and unleash growth surpassing the Reagan Revolution.

S&P 500 index; SPY is standard ETF proxy

Another short-term uncertainty weighing on the velocity of money—suggesting monetary policy could be tighter than the Fed appreciates—is tax policy. In anticipation of lower tax rates, consumers and businesses could be delaying income recognition, as in the early Reagan years.

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One of the lessons learned from the first Reagan Administration was the importance of making tax policy effective in real-time or, better yet, retroactively. Reagan phased in his cut over three years and faced back-to-back recessions spanning his first three years in office.

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Thereafter, we enjoyed the Reagan Revolution which lasted for years beyond his second term. #DOGE is giving the Trump Administration degrees of freedom to cut tax rates. Like Art Laffer, I believe that tax rate changes provide much more powerful incentives than tax rebates.

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I believe that Trump and team understand this imperative, and that they will work decisively to resolve uncertainties that have been hitting the equity market in recent days. If so, the Trump Revolution could dwarf the Reagan Revolution for years.


Summary: AMZN ad push seen as spoiler to FB pricing power and GOOG search share at point of sale.

Now that it has identified advertising as a priority, $AMZN could become a spoiler, disturbing the soaring ad pricing at $FB and taking share from $GOOG in the search market (right at the point of sale).  In 2017, ad revenues were $95B at GOOG, $40B at FB, and only $2.8B at AMZN. https://t.co/a7sYiJPgFH

5/ At the current rate (or even a bit slower), internet advertising will capture 50% of ALL advertising by next year vs. industry forecasts of ~2023.

This internet thing..it's not slowing down guys. https://t.co/dRXctMrkol


taking share from $GOOG in the search market

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: Increased conviction in TSLA on 5-year horizon; autonomy day on April 22 as catalyst.

Not in the least: our investment time horizon is five years.  Our conviction in $TSLA has increased in the last three months.  Tune in to its #autonomy day on April 22.  It will put $LYFT to shame.

Hi Cathie, does it bother you that the stock you have a ten-fold + return target on has underperformed the Nasdaq by 36 percentage points in the past three months as the growth story rolled over? Just curious.


Summary: Bullish crypto: argues the asset class is a bigger idea than the internet bubble that peaked at $4T in today's dollars, implying far more upside.

Broad crypto; BTC and ETH as primary proxies

In today's dollars, the internet bubble peaked $4 trillion...and cryptoassets are a bigger idea!  Great chart @cburniske and @jmonegro. https://t.co/7HWpGSvLjc

Teaser slide from my presentation tomorrow at @coindesk's #ConsensusInvest. Yes, we are entering the frenzy stage of #crypto, I'd be concerned if we weren't. Credit @jmonegro for the beautiful graph. https://t.co/9H5iq1hhP3


Summary: Bearish ILMN: entering crowded molec-dx market and competing with customers is a questionable strategy.

As @sbarnettARK elucidates in this extensive tweet thread, $ILMN - with 85-90% share of the DNA sequencing market - is entering a crowded molecular diagnostic testing market and will be competing with its customers, a questionable strategy.

Though not exhaustive, here's a list of GRAIL's comps. Please feel free to suggest others:

Screening: Thrive Earlier Detection, Freenome, Exact Sciences, Guardant Health (GH)

Rx Optimization: Invitae (NVTA), Natera (NTRA), GH, Veracyte, Tempus, Roche

MRD: NVTA, NTRA, GH, Roche


Summary: Cathie Wood reaffirms high conviction long on Bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem.

It was a pleasure joining @WilfredFrost on The Master Investor Podcast to discuss our continued conviction in Bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem.

Important info: https://t.co/ubOnzoCMdV

BONUS Crypto episode - with @CathieDWood of @ARKInvest - why bitcoin will always be the number one cryptocurrency:

YouTube: https://t.co/GecafBVQkQ

Apple: https://t.co/Sqcsyz87yB

Spotify: https://t.co/qdIsl1mVGr https://t.co/KXV0TydR35


Summary: Bearish on GLD; poor UX of gold/paper promises vs crypto is a marginal headwind for the gold ETF.

A problem at the margin for $GLD...! https://t.co/d5wtQBjr9P

Maybe not "zero," but agree that for younger generations, paper promises 4 gold & waiting days 4 money transfer do not provide the best UX https://t.co/NZpoJwcoYR


Summary: Bullish S&P; dismisses valuation concerns, argues deflationary innovation boom justifies continued gains.

A #deflationary boom, thanks to massively disruption #innovation, is playing havoc: if companies don't invest aggressively now, they lose! https://t.co/v0a7qE6AKG

... prepared to own the losses when it goes down. This will be the 9th straight yr of gains for the S&P, CAPE above 30. Would be careful... https://t.co/PE7xU6lO3t


Summary: Interprets Dow highs + Russell 2000 weakness as broadening bull market base — bullish equities broadly.

RUT = Russell 2000; IWM is standard ETF proxy

Good sign for this #bullmarket:  its base is broadening, not narrowing. https://t.co/dP2WGYSdiB

First time in history...
Dow all-time high 4 days in a row while...
Russell 2000 down 4 days in a row.
$DJIA $RUT https://t.co/I4Ky82f7Ri


Summary: Bullish TSLA: massive compute ramp raises odds Tesla wins nationwide autonomous taxi market, a winner-take-most AI opportunity with SaaS margins.

If successful, this incredible ramp in compute will increase the odds that #Tesla will be the first to roll out a nationwide autonomous taxi platform, which we believe is a winner-take-most #AI-driven opportunity with SaaS-like margins.

Tesla forecasts ramping up to 100 exaflops of AI training capacity by Q4 2024. That's a huge number that implies an over 20x scaling from the 4.6 exaflops disclosed at AI Day 2022 (14k Nvidia A100 GPUs), and over 50x the A100 capacity discussed in 2021.

This implies a compound


Summary: Bullish on equities: record debt issuance funding buybacks plus institutional rebalancing into cheaper stocks supports upside.

Record debt sales also will fund share buybacks, at the same time that institutional investment firms are rebalancing, selling expensive bonds for relatively inexpensive stocks.  Great for equities.


Summary: Bullish TSLA: EV opportunity alone is enormous, autonomous ride-hail not required for success.

According to @TashaARK’s and @skorusARK’s research, $TSLA does not need autonomous ride hail to be a success: the EV opportunity alone is enormous.

Tesla's margins, superior drivetrain efficiency and low battery costs should make it one of the best positioned to weather any cyclical slowdown for autos. As it has done in the past, it can be the first to lower prices, which puts pressure on other automakers.


Summary: Passive/S&P benchmarks will underperform disruptive innovation; TSLA cited as a key opportunity being missed by index investors.

Disruptive innovation is another way of saying “creative destruction”. @ARKInvest typically researches the “Big Ideas” that will transform the way the world works. In “Bad Ideas”, we highlight the likely victims.

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The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are populating their benchmarks increasingly with the “value traps” created by innovation, stocks that are cheap for a reason. Innovation is disintermediating and/or disrupting the biggest companies in traditional benchmarks.

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Passive and benchmark-sensitive investing is contributing to the most massive misallocation of capital in history. Investing in companies because of their past successes risks putting the US at a serious competitive disadvantage to countries like China.

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Passive investing is unlikely to keep pace with the exponential growth of the five innovation platforms and 14 technologies evolving today. In our view, S&P is depriving benchmark-sensitive investors of some of the most important investment opportunities in the world, like $TSLA.


S&P is depriving benchmark-sensitive investors of some of the most important investment opportunities in the world, like $TSLA


Summary: Bullish TSLA: CathieWood argues it is mispriced due to short-term thinking, implying upside from current levels.

Yes, @jwangARK, and because of such short term thinking, stocks of companies focused on innovation are the most inefficiently priced stocks in the market. $TSLA is in that category today.

1/ No narrative is more tiresome and false than the idea that because companies are going public later, investors now have fewer choices and lower returns than a decade ago. It's the worst combination of hindsight bias plus laziness.


Summary: Implies BTC is poised for a bull move as gold (now at ATH ratio) has historically led major BTC cycles.

Also important to note is that the correlation between the bitcoin and gold prices has been 0.14 since early 2020, and that the gold price led the last two significant bull moves in the bitcoin price in the last two major cycles.

Gold’s market cap as a % of US M2 just hit ~170%+.

This is an all-time high, matching the Great Depression (1934) and above the 1980 inflation peak.

Historically, extremes in this ratio show up around macro stress/dollar regime shifts and often mark turning points (1980 https://t.co/7Pag3QCN7A


Summary: BTC in early stages of a serious bull market; long-term bullish despite expected volatility.

Keeping the big picture in perspective is important.  #Bitcoin is in the early stages of a serious bull market and will remain volatile! https://t.co/Z27uTOwi9u

Just published my first blog @Medium: "#Cryptoassets could correct 75% and still be in a bull market" https://t.co/LPqPv2w3mR


Summary: Endorses bullish Bitcoin thesis: bull market on track, post-halving supply growth below gold's for first time.

Based on @dpuellARK’s on-chain analytics and analysis, the bull market in bitcoin is in good shape. After its halving in April, growth in the supply of bitcoin dropped to 0.9%, below the long term growth in the supply of gold for the first time!

New #Bitcoin blog is now live!

What are the cycles of bitcoin's growth? Are we on track with past cycles?

Full blog here: https://t.co/iY1ss65m2Z

A thread below... https://t.co/v0iPG0zVq4


Terrific arbitrage opportunity for "cryptoasset pickers"

Summary: Long crypto vs short FANG data aggregators as distributed digital services displace centralized platforms over 5–10 years.

Broad cryptoassets basket; BTC and ETH as proxies

Terrific arbitrage opportunity for “cryptoasset pickers”...as data aggregators like $FB, $GOOG, and other #FANGs give way to distributed digital services during the next five to ten years. https://t.co/TkMylQszAh

Together @facebook @amazon @netlfix and @google (FANGs) store 10x the value of #cryptoassets 🤔 https://t.co/FfAjpPRnjX


data aggregators like $FB, $GOOG, and other #FANGs give way to distributed digital services during the next five to ten years


Summary: Bullish US equities broadly; dismisses 1999-bubble comparison, calls it a real broadening bull market.

This equity market bears no resemblance to 1999.  This market is climbing a wall of worry, broadening out...into a real bull market. https://t.co/Bp4Ykq5yWk

In 1999, there were more than 500 IPOs. Average first-day gain was 68%, ten popped >350%. Is it really like '99? https://t.co/mbYwW90wM3


Summary: Bullish TSLA: disputes Musk's self-deprecation, citing $2T autonomous taxi market where Tesla could be a natural monopoly in the US.

Not true, if $TSLA is aiming for the $2T autonomous taxi market, which will turn into natural monopolies. #Tesla has a good shot at the US. https://t.co/3DBIK0oySE

ELON MUSK: Tesla is worth more than 'we have any right to deserve' $TSLA https://t.co/4CqwHcD1EN https://t.co/NeZxRYtNwQ


Summary: ARM and NVDA are displacing INTC in the post-ARM world; warns index-fund holders of INTC exposure.

#ARM, now part of #SoftBank, and $NVDA have stolen the march from $INTC.  Index funds beware! https://t.co/v9HDTQRXLy

Intel axes its x86 IoT chips. The Intel model is simply anachronistic in the post ARM world. https://t.co/ZTjEDovVpt


$NVDA have stolen the march from $INTC. Index funds beware!


Summary: Relays ARK research projecting TSLA >10x $420 on full autonomy; also cites Musk's $1T (15x) potential within 10 years — author adopts bullish thesis.

Based on @ARKInvest's research, if it delivers on its goal of fully autonomous driving, $TSLA will be worth more than 10X $420 in the next five years. https://t.co/dFsPb4Jdg6

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This past January in the NYT, @elonmusk said he sees the potential for $TSLA to be a $1 trillion company - or 15X its current market cap - within a 10 year period.


Summary: Bullish TSLA: two to three years ahead of competitors on cobalt-free battery technology.

#Cobalt could have become the gating factory in battery production. According to @ARKInvest analyst, @skorusARK, $TSLA already is two to three years ahead of the competition based on this variable alone. https://t.co/qVZrrE0b5B

@korihale @Tesla @CultureBanx @Forbes We use less than 3% cobalt in our batteries & will use none in next gen


Summary: Oil prices headed to $12 or lower as EV adoption drives secular demand decline past its peak.

Oil commodity; USO is standard ETF proxy

Yes, a 10% drop in US VMT is a big deal. #Oilpricesare determined at the margin. A 1% drop in demand has a significant impact, so the impact of a 10% drop in one year is huge.

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.@ARKInvest believes that the oil price peaked at more than $135 per barrel in 2008 and has been hitting “lower highs” and “lower lows” as demand “growth” has disappointed expectations for the last 12 years.

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Oil demand probably hit a secular peak last year and, thanks to #EVs, now is in secular “decline”. Though ARK has no formal forecast, I believe that #Oilprices are on their way back to $12, the level reached after the 1973 oil cartel crisis, or lower, now that EVs are taking off.


Summary: Bullish crypto/Bitcoin; views selloff as healthy purge in an ongoing bull market.

This test of #cryptoassets is healthy...a purge of the weak holders.  The strongest bull markets climb a "wall of worry". https://t.co/pSJMY1bONU

Collectively, the cryptocurrency sector lost $13 billion in market cap today. Bitcoin was responsible for $4 billion of that. https://t.co/e93ODedAHc


Amazon's next leg of business: Logistics-as-a-Service

Summary: Bullish AMZN: air cargo hub signals a new Logistics-as-a-Service growth leg.

#Amazon's next leg of business: #Logistics-as-a-Service. https://t.co/AMiB2TJnU7

Amazon is opening its first air cargo hub $AMZN https://t.co/7fo970qWzO https://t.co/De5RI8IA8i


Summary: Bullish crypto secular uptrend; ARK endorses cryptoassets as a new asset class with a durable long-term bull thesis.

Based on the #SEC's pronouncement, Howard is behind way the times.  @ARKInvest agrees with @cburniske: #cryptoassets are a new asset class! https://t.co/Qp1wLPVmqt

6/ Howard will have moments of vindication when #cryptoassets correct > 50%, but the ferocity of the secular uptrend will now haunt him


If @BrianRoemmele thinks #Tesla's A15 chip will be a big deal, then it will be a big deal.

Summary: Endorses Tesla AI5 chip as a big deal, implying bullish stance on TSLA.

If @BrianRoemmele thinks #Tesla’s A15 chip will be a big deal, then it will be a big deal.

The new Tesla AI5 chip

In-house design
40× faster
8× compute
9× memory
5× bandwidth
Code paths shrunk to ~5
10× cheaper per inference than Nvidia
3× more efficient per watt

Built by Samsung with lithography by TSMC all performed in Texas and Arizona.

Production 2026.

It is a https://t.co/KTf6jvPnr5


If @ARKInvest's research is correct, oil prices will suffer the same fate as whale oil prices

Summary: ARK believes oil demand has peaked; long-term oil prices will collapse like whale oil as EVs displace demand.

According to the EIA, global oil demand peaked at 101 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2019, dropped to 92 mbd during the coronavirus crisis in 2020, and has rebounded to 97 mbd in 2021. Based on our forecast for EV sales, @ARKInvest believes that oil demand has peaked.

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That said, based on ESG mandates, pension funds are demanding that oil companies cut back on capital spending while US banks, in response to the collapse in oil prices last year, are denying fracking companies of loans for capital spending, and OPEC is holding the line on supply.

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The rise in oil prices this year is a function more of supply than demand. At the turn of the 20th century, whale oil faced the same fate and whale oil prices fluctuated dramatically. If @ARKInvest’s research is correct, oil prices will suffer the same fate as whale oil prices.


Summary: Bullish Bitcoin; log chart suggests the current move is just beginning.

On this log chart, #bitcoin looks like it's just getting going again! https://t.co/O6guFkRCWC

Bitcoin: $10,000 invested 7 years ago is worth over $430 million today. $BTCUSD https://t.co/XL4MXrfHL4


Summary: Bitcoin gaining dominance as crypto's reserve currency during risk-off episodes; implicitly bullish BTC relative to altcoins.

#bitcoin is behaving like the reserve currency of the #cryptoasset ecosystem.  Its share of the ecosystem increases during panic attacks and flights to safety. https://t.co/buv4JNxbcw

Bitcoin dominance back at the levels of one year ago, while small cap altcoin index loses ground. https://t.co/JAvO9ssacp


Summary: Confirms oil will continue falling toward $12/barrel as supply/price shock destroys demand and accelerates EV adoption.

@JavierBlas @EdLudlow @BloombergTV @BloombergRadio @elonmusk This supply and price shock is destroying demand and accelerating the shift to electric transportation. So, yes.

@EdLudlow @CathieDWood @BloombergTV @BloombergRadio @elonmusk Still thinking oil prices going down to $12 a barrel?


Summary: Despite $20B crypto selloff, author sees crypto uptrend as intact; bullish BTC and ETH.

The uptrend in #cryptoasset network value still seems to be intact. #bitcoin #ether https://t.co/OJrR9jQkgQ

In one day we've shed $20B in #cryptoasset network value, qualifying as a "bear market." Never thought a bear market would be relieving 😅 https://t.co/St0BDOAXZO


Summary: Bearish oil: EV adoption across cars, trucks, drones, planes will crumble oil prices over 5–10 years.

With a shift to #EVs, both cars and trucks (not to mention drones and planes), #oil prices should crumble, pushing its dollar value down toward that of gold during the next five to ten years. https://t.co/ReQ27zHzuH

THE #OIL #MARKET IS BIGGER THAN ALL #METAL #MARKETS COMBINED - #metals #mining #commodities #copper #ironore #gold #zinc #silver $oil $gld https://t.co/j6961ZXyEq


Summary: Cryptoassets are already in a commodities-style boom; implicitly bullish on crypto broadly.

The #commodities boom is already under way but is not captured by this chart:  think #cryptoassets. https://t.co/B670TlTzTS

Commodities bottoming out against stocks... price/CPI inflation usually creeps in at the early stage of production, the raw materials. So new commodities boom could herald era of weak USD & volatile stocks as companies deal with rising cost & lower consumption challenge. https://t.co/S9E1lejpD7


Summary: Bullish DXY: tax reform could flip the multi-decade bear trend into a reverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern.

If we're talking technicals, then #TaxReform17 could change this $DXY pattern to a reverse-head-and-shoulders in the next few months. https://t.co/peBEnhe9Un

Lower-highs & lower-lows in the #DXY’s multi-decade trend suggest that the dollar remains in a long-term bear market #WILTW https://t.co/zrjmfeMRME


Summary: Endorses ARK's bullish Roku thesis; prime beneficiary of $150B+ ad shift from linear to digital TV, base case $605 by 2026.

According to Nick’s original research (with support from @andrewkimARK), Roku should be a prime beneficiary of the $150+ billion shift in global advertising from linear to digital TV. A big idea, and another @ARKInvest open-source model!

Our Roku open-source model is now available on Github: https://t.co/90BgoAatof

You can read about our thesis and assumptions in our blog post: https://t.co/BeOo1kmy4Z

Our base case suggests Roku’s share price could reach $605 by 2026.


Summary: Cathie Wood endorses ARK's bullish case for TSLA winning the US robotaxi winner-take-most opportunity.

Now that #robotaxis are commercializing , the next question is who will win this winner-take-most opportunity in the US. Based on two major competitive advantages, @skorusARK makes the case for $TSLA in The Brainstorm this week.

One big differentiator between Waymo and Tesla? The ride model. Waymo requires partnerships and fleet control. Tesla can crowdsource its fleet, allowing owners to “opt in” like Airbnb hosts for autonomous rides. @skorusARK highlights more distinctions in "The Brainstorm."


Summary: Cathie Wood vouches HOOD as a generational company disrupting traditional finance; decisive bullish quality verdict.

Robinhood is a generational company, literally. In this blog, @GrousARK and @varshikaARK describe how profoundly $HOOD is challenging and changing the traditional financial world.

Legacy financial institutions built empires on fees. Then came @RobinhoodApp, capturing the hearts—and wallets—of Millennials and Gen-Z. Now, it's on track to become the first consumer finance super-app and target a $600B+ TAM. This blog unpacks the $HOOD playbook in 3 Acts 🧵


Summary: ARK Invest bullish on AI-driven life science / health care transformation.

ARK Invest flagship fund is ARKK; life science context fits

Thank you, @MartyMakary and @VPrasadMDMPH, for setting the wayward financial markets straight with your X video post yesterday. @ARKInvest believes that your transparency and focus on life science as the most profound application of AI will transform health care. @NMDespotARK


Summary: Warns equity shorts will be caught offside if tariff negotiations deliver lower global trade barriers — implied bullish on equities.

If negotiations lead to lower global tariffs and lower non-tariff trade barriers, investors shorting the equity market now will be caught flat footed or worse. A global “tax cut” would be a very good thing.

Trusting President Trump will get this call right, Art Laffer just published an important article on the destructive impact of tariffs. The historical perspective—back to the 1920s—and the logic are the best I have seen. Let us know what you think. https://t.co/JQUvhcZ5ez


Summary: Defends bullish EV/TSLA thesis against a WSJ skeptic; implied bullish on TSLA.

As much I respect his thinking on most subjects, @HolmanJenkins @WSJ needs to read @ARKInvest’s research. His thoughts on #EVs and $TSLA are sensational and ill-informed. https://t.co/3Q22eeOkBY

1/ In January 2018 @Reuters reported that $90B is being invested in #EV production.

It's now June and @WSJ reports that $105B is being invested in EVs.

ARK expects this number to continue to rise as automakers recognize the opportunity.


Summary: Long BTC: Fed Chair compared it to gold, but BTC's $2T market cap is far below gold's $15T, implying massive upside; still early innings.

Great day for #bitcoin and digital property rights! Incoming SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will free digital assets from Gary Gensler’s chokehold and protect private property rights in the digital world.

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Today, Fed Chair Powell described bitcoin as a virtual, digital version of gold. At $2,700, gold is a ~$15 trillion market, compared to bitcoin at only ~$2 trillion. Even after breaking through $100,000, bitcoin still is in early innings.

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Indeed, @ARKInvest believes that bitcoin is a much bigger idea than gold!


Summary: GM flagged as interesting play on autonomous taxi ecosystem evolving in China.

$GM also is interesting given the autonomous taxi ecosystem evolving in China:  $SAIC, $BABA, #Lyft,  #Didi. https://t.co/qA6dP230Wy

LG is adding production capacity at its Chevy Bolt #EV battery factory. https://t.co/fXxB0AtIfA


Summary: Bearish UBER and LYFT on driver dissatisfaction and Tesla autonomy threat; bullish XBT over UBER.

No comparison. In LA for the holiday, I’m struck that all of my #Uber drivers are unhappy that their take rate dropped by 25% in March.  Like $LYFT, Uber is an accident waiting to happen, which $TSLA’s autonomy day on Monday will crystalize. $XBT will trounce $UBER.


$TSLA's autonomy day on Monday will crystalize


Summary: BIDU and Tencent named as key beneficiaries of autonomous taxi networks and China's share of a $2T revenue opportunity; NIO cited as an investee.

$BIDU and #Tencent, both investing in #NIO and the latter also invested in $TSLA, will be important beneficiaries of #autonomous taxi networks.  China will get a disproportionate share of what we believe will be a $2 trillion revenue opportunity. https://t.co/OArh8kApUZ


Tencent primary listing is 0700.HK on HKEX


traditional financial analysts have missed the mark... Analysts following $TSLA should be expert in energy storage, robotics, artificial intelligence, and software-as-service

Summary: Bullish TSLA: dismisses analyst downgrades as misguided; EVs entering exponential multi-year growth driven by Wright's Law cost declines and 20x EV sales scaling.

Predictably, when @elonmusk announced at Battery Day last week that $TSLA would cut the price of a Model 3 to $25,000, several financial analysts panicked, downgrading the stock and/or cutting their price targets. In our view, traditional financial analysts have missed the mark.

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Traditional auto analysts are analyzing a mature industry in which lower prices signal trouble: higher inventories and lower sales. Led by #Tesla, electric vehicles (EVs) are in their infancy, and BECAUSE of lower costs and prices, are moving into exponential growth trajectory.

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According to Wright’s Law, for every cumulative doubling in the number of EVs produced, costs will drop by 28%, suggesting that EV prices will drop below those of gas powered vehicles on a like-for-like basis during the next two years.

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Analysts following $TSLA should be expert in energy storage, robotics, artificial intelligence, and software-as-service. While they are expert at the internal combustion engine, traditional auto analysts are not equipped to analyze EVs, particularly $TSLA.

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According to @skorusARK’s battery research, #EV sales will scale nearly 20-fold from roughly 1.8 million last year to 35 million, 40% of total global auto sales, during the next five to six years.

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The auto industry has not enjoyed exponential growth in roughly 100 years. EVs have entered exponential growth territory that will last for the next five to ten years.


Summary: Bearish oil long-term: $80 price will accelerate EV/autonomous adoption, causing demand peak within two years and price collapse to $30, then $10, then $3.

If Saudi Arabia succeeds in getting the #oil price to $80, global demand could peak within two years, accelerated by the shift to #EVs and #autonomous taxi networks.  $80 will be the prelude to $30, then $10, to $3, a full circle back to the Arab oil embargo in 1973. https://t.co/L3PXVuJjye

Saudi Arabia could use an 80s revival for oil despite its drawbacks https://t.co/EfEvU7mJgG via @gadfly https://t.co/R0cbHx3Bun


Summary: Cathie Wood endorses TSLA as ahead of curve on battery cost, reaching sub-$100/kWh two years earlier than ARK expected.

Two years ahead of when @ARKInvest @skorusARK expected!  $TSLA is ahead of the curve. https://t.co/meCaP4ovvl

Musk on battery price at the $TSLA shareholder meeting: can likely get below $100/kWh on the cell level by the end of the year. Can eventually get below $100/kWh at pack level


we believe that Zoom will be a prime beneficiary of the first 'rip and replace' cycle since the early nineties in the $1.5 trillion global enterprise communications space

Summary: Long ZM as prime beneficiary of enterprise communications rip-and-replace cycle; dismisses naysayers conflating it with profitless tech.

Naysayers lump Zoom $ZM into profit less tech, concept capital, stay at home stocks. Along with Microsoft, we believe that Zoom will be a prime beneficiary of the first “rip and replace” cycle since the early nineties in the $1.5 trillion global enterprise communications space.

Just a reminder that in Q4 FY22 Zoom reported a $5.4B cash position with a 38% adjusted free cash flow margin on >$4B ARR


Summary: Dollar could soar if US ROIC improves under current Administration policies, analogous to Reagan-era dollar surge.

Put in perspective, the trade-weighted dollar (DXY) has corrected but has not crashed. If this Administration's policies increase the ROIC in the US relative to that in the rest of the world, the dollar could soar, like it did under Reaganomics in the early eighties. https://t.co/VpjZI75Y2P


CEO Anthony Noto made a convincing case that SoFi has a good shot at becoming one of the few "digital wallets" that we believe will dominate the US financial services industry during the next five to ten years

Summary: Bullish SOFI: Cathie Wood endorses Noto's thesis that SoFi could become a dominant US digital wallet over the next 5–10 years.

In our FYI podcast, CEO Anthony Noto made a convincing case that SoFi has a good shot at becoming one of the few “digital wallets” that we believe will dominate the US financial services industry during the next five to ten years.

"Building trust is the only thing standing between us and being the best. We won't stop until we're there." – Anthony Noto, @SoFi CEO

@anthonynoto joined @CathieDWood & @andrewkimARK to discuss the evolution of financial markets & all things SoFi. Listen. https://t.co/cwUphJ3s8t


Traditional #auto manufacturers already are seven years behind $TSLA in #battery technology... 3-4 years behind on chip technology... $TSLA has collected 10 billion miles of driving data

Summary: Bullish TSLA: OEMs 7 years behind on battery tech, 3-4 years behind on chips, and 10B vs 15M miles of driving data makes TSLA the dominant AI play.

Truth will win out.  Traditional #auto manufacturers already are seven years behind $TSLA in #battery technology.  After analyzing the specs of #Tesla’s new #AI chip, and @jwangARK concluded that they are 3-4 years behind on chip technology.

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Finally, after discovering that $TSLA has collected 10 billion miles of driving data, compared to $GOOG’s 15 million miles, well what more is there to say about an AI project?


Summary: Counting crypto as mortgage assets bullish for both crypto broadly and US housing; ramifications underappreciated.

.@Pulte’s directive could bolster both crypto and housing significantly. I do not believe that the ramifications of this move are well-understood. Find @GrousARK’s early analysis in our ARK Disrupt newsletter on Monday at https://t.co/4GzS1p9lDa.

After significant studying, and in keeping with President Trump’s vision to make the United States the crypto capital of the world, today I ordered the Great Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare their businesses to count cryptocurrency as an asset for a mortgage.

SO ORDERED https://t.co/Tg9ReJQXC3


US housing sector; ITB is homebuilders ETF proxy


Summary: Bearish on FB, GOOG, AMZN over 5-10 years as blockchain disintermediates centralized data aggregators.

@DelRayMan @coindesk $FB, $GOOG, $AMZN, and other centralized data aggregators should be disintermediated by #blockchain technology longer run...say 5-10 years.

Entirely new business models will be required if blockchain moves ID from Google and Facebook: https://t.co/9Z84a0Ma9V via @coindesk https://t.co/WFROfct10t


Tesla's capital raise increases our confidence that it will gain market share in the #EV market during the next 5 years, increasing the probability that our bull case for the stock is correct

Summary: ARKInvest bullish TSLA: capital raise boosts confidence in market-share gains and bull-case scenario over 5 years.

.@ARKInvest included $15B of equity dilution in its 5 year forecast for $TSLA, so $2 billion+ now makes sense. We wouldn’t be surprised if Elon announces plans for another #Gigafactory in China, a vote of confidence in the resilience of that country.

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.#Tesla’s capital raise increases our confidence that it will gain market share in the #EV market during the next 5 years, increasing the probability that our bull case for the stock is correct.


Summary: Bullish BTC: price trending up despite China exchange volumes collapsing from 90%+ to under 5%, showing resilience.

Isn't it impressive that #bitcoin's price trend still is up, even though China's exchanges are down from 90%+ of trading to less than 5%? https://t.co/14Em8q8IPS

#bitcoin trading volumes on 3 biggest Chinese exchanges have dropped 2 orders of magnitude post-China's actions 😮 https://t.co/w2siTE8Onl https://t.co/XnaSIiWBvi


Summary: Bullish BIDU and BAIC ecosystem as autonomous taxi networks expand in China.

$BIDU and #BAIC ecosystem could be powerful as #autonomous taxi networks take off in China. https://t.co/W4e1Si3Cy3

Qi Lu (former $MSFT, AI expert) appointed as new head of $BIDU intelligent driving group / #autonomous effort. https://t.co/8iFFz2Echo


BAIC Motor Corp listed in Hong Kong as 1958.HK


Summary: Bullish TSLA: ARK research shows Model 3 generates $10K+/yr on autonomous taxi platform, endorsing Tesla as appreciating asset thesis.

.@ARKInvest’s research suggests that the Model 3 will generate cash flow of $10,000 per year at a minimum on an #autonomous taxi platform.  @TashaARK and @skorusARK have done the research.  We are happy to share it!

“Buying a car today is an investment into the future. I think the most profound thing is that if you buy a Tesla today, I believe you are buying an appreciating asset – not a depreciating asset (due to the self-driving AI)."

@elonmusk


Summary: Endorses bullish BTC perspective, highlighting 2014 as the only major down year — implicitly bullish on continued performance.

Great perspective:  2014 has been the only significant year of negative price action in the life of #bitcoin. https://t.co/1UOtYsBwww

2017 another amazing year of $BTC performance.
Great work & much accomplished: #SegWit @CMEGroup @CBOE #LightningNetwork
2011 +1500%
2012 +299%
2013 +5400%
2014 -43%
2015 +37%
2016 +130%
2017 +1516%
200DMA passed $6k & @TIPMayerMultple at 2.2x.
2018 will be onward & upward. 🚂 🚀 https://t.co/a3HflLhMAW


Summary: Digital wallets (SQ, PYPL) will disrupt traditional banking at a fraction of customer acquisition cost; banks lack the DNA to compete.

In this white paper, @mfriedrichARK illustrates why and how digital wallets - bank branches in our pockets - will disrupt traditional #banking. Banks as we know them will disappear.

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To acquire a new customer, $SQ Cash App and $PYPL Venmo pay a fraction - as low as 1% - of bank costs. Banks do not have the right DNA to compete against digital wallets.


Banks as we know them will disappear. Banks do not have the right DNA to compete against digital wallets

US banking sector; KBE is standard ETF proxy


Summary: Cathie Wood draws analogy: TSLA's Grohmann acquisition mirrors AMZN/Kiva — strategic moat vs legacy auto incumbents, implying long-term upside for both.

#Tesla’s purchase of Grohmann Engineering reminds me of #Amazon’s purchase of Kiva Robotics. $AMZN pulled the rug out from retailers who didn’t understand that online was going to put many of them out of business. $TSLA may have done the same in the #auto world.

2/ "one of the reasons the company is struggling to meet battery demand is because Tesla bought Grohmann Engineering, a battery automation specialist hired by Mercedes-Benz to build up its own battery manufacturing capacity."


#Amazon's purchase of Kiva Robotics... $AMZN pulled the rug out from retailers


Summary: Crypto dips / growing pains are a buy signal; broadly bullish crypto assets.

Growing pains (emphasis on "growing") usually are a buy signal!  #cryptoassets signals should not be much different. https://t.co/dJqhQVBGMb

Every #cryptoasset architecture hits bumps in the road, and the market quickly tempers its enthusiasm. Natural. https://t.co/jKNYMCWjdt


Summary: Bullish TSLA as a world-class MaaS platform; urges staying public to democratize access, implying long-term upside.

.@elonmusk  Given their short-term focus, perhaps public markets do not deserve $TSLA, one of the world's most important #Mobility-as-a-Service plays, $AMZN suffered slings and arrows in order to democratize access to its stock. Now that you do not need cash, you can do the same!

Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.


Tesla's Cybertruck is the sleeper that could destroy the pricing structure of light duty trucks, the lifeblood of most traditional auto companies in the US

Summary: Bullish TSLA: Cybertruck positioned to disrupt light-duty truck pricing and undermine traditional auto incumbents.

Tesla’s Cybertruck is the sleeper that could destroy the pricing structure of light duty trucks, the lifeblood of most traditional auto companies in the US.

In cars Tesla is delivering transformative margins in vehicle segments where traditional manufacturers can barely tread water

Tesla could opt for similar margins in trucks and by doing so push all of its incumbent domestic competitors onto its Cybertruck blade.


EVs costs and prices will drop well below those for "like-for-like" gas-powered vehicles during the next three years!

Summary: Bullish US EV sector: cost/price advantage over ICE vehicles expected within 3 years, driving accelerating US adoption.

US EV sector; DRIV is broad EV/autonomous ETF proxy

China is pointing the way forward for EV sales in the US. Why? Economics, as usual. EVs costs and prices will drop well below those for “like-for-like” gas-powered vehicles during the next three years!

More EVs are now sold every year in China than cars - of all sorts - are sold in the US. This trend isn't stopping. EVs are all of the growth in the global auto market since 2017.
via @electricfelix https://t.co/2VVoRZUwCT


Summary: Bullish bitcoin and crypto assets; endorses decentralized-network/token thesis while dismissing Buffett and Gates skepticism.

Nice to see @fredwilson's vision on a day when #WarrenBuffet and @BillGates miss the mark on #bitcoin and other #cryptoassets. https://t.co/UeJQrMpa46

“what we are seeing here is the creation of a new internet, built upon protocols that allow for decentralized networks to form and tokens that allow people and companies to be compensated for that formation.”
-@fredwilson  https://t.co/RZ9ay1uf7Y


Summary: USD deflation/negative rates would trigger flight-to-safety into Bitcoin, bullish BTC.

As a first thought, emerging markets, particularly those with dollar denominated debt, would be in real trouble. Venezuela-like flight to safety would be a boon for #bitcoin.

Question for debate : If the USD went into deflation and/or negative interest rates, what would that mean for Bitcoin?


Summary: Long TSLA on TCO advantage + explosive EV demand ahead; short GM as gas car sales have peaked and Bolt is flat.

.@ARKInvest would like to compare notes with Adam Jonas and his team at Morgan Stanley on their concern about EV demand. The concern should be about gas-powered cars. EVs are growing nicely.

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Based on original research (which seems rare on the Street these days), the total cost of ownership (TCO) of a $TSLA’s Model 3 is lower than that of the average gas powered vehicle, as shown in ARK’s Sunday newsletter above.

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As the average price of an EV moves toward and drops below that of gas powered cars in the next few years, EV demand growth should transition from strong to explosive.

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Increasingly, when #UBER drivers drop me off at the train, they ask about the economics of the #Model3. Demand for the Model 3 extends well beyond the premium sedan market.

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I’d be much more concerned about the demand for gas powered cars.  I’m puzzled over Adam Jonas’s “overweight” rating on $GM because the #Bolt’s sales are flat year over year and its gas powered car sales are falling.  Gas powered car sales seem to have peaked globally.


I'm puzzled over Adam Jonas's 'overweight' rating on $GM because the #Bolt's sales are flat year over year and its gas powered car sales are falling. Gas powered car sales seem to have peaked globally.


Summary: Bullish on Connected TV sector and ROKU/DASH partnership as beneficiaries of $70B US / $170B global ad-dollar shift from linear to digital TV.

Connected TV basket: Roku, The Trade Desk, FuboTV

Connected TV should be a prime beneficiary of the $70 billion shift in advertising dollars from linear to digital TV in the US and the $170 billion shift globally. Good catch @andrewkimARK!

1/ The $ROKU + $DASH partnership announced today seems like one of the most intuitive use cases for bottom-funnel CTV advertising, finally giving food services the ability to granularly target high-intent customers. We outline some potential value-add scenarios below. https://t.co/yJnInaXrV6


Summary: Endorses ARK's bullish thesis: ETH is a transformative big idea powering DeFi as programmable collateral.

This thoughtful paper by @LorenzoARK explains why @ARKInvest believes that the Ethereum network is a big idea that will transform the financial services industry.

How does Ethereum & its staking yield play an increasingly significant role in establishing the endogenous benchmark in decentralized finance? @LorenzoARK analyzes how the asset is positioning itself as the programmable collateral powering all major DeFi applications. Read here.


Summary: Bullish BTC as Venezuelan hyperinflation drives adoption as a savings vehicle.

As Venezuelans shift into #bitcoin in a desperate attempt to salvage their savings and purchasing power in the face of 40,000% inflation, bolivars are imploding much faster than they would have in a currency crisis historically. https://t.co/DFIWw4Otiq

The Venezuelan #bolivar isn't worth the paper it's printed on. The black-market exchange rate is now 2,220,978 VEF/USD. https://t.co/mCX7ifNqao


Summary: Bullish TSLA on mobile service model: remote diagnostics + van repairs delight customers and boost business.

$TSLA will diagnose 90% of the problems remotely and send vans to repair 80% of them...delighting the customer, good for business! https://t.co/rN3er9cuwQ

Tesla readies for Model 3 with plan to add hundreds of repair vans and 1,400 technicians https://t.co/hFkYrk97jT


Summary: Bullish BTC: resilience amid multiple headwinds is classic bull market behavior.

Classic bull market behavior...#bitcoin has been resilient in the face of #Bitfinex hack, Chinese crackdown, and #SEC's no-go to the ETF. https://t.co/jS38oeOqZk

Bitcoin Surges Back Above $1200, Erases ETF-Denial Losses https://t.co/lUnzYKJOMy


Summary: Bullish NASDAQ: rejects 1929-crash analogy, drawing parallel to 1982 secular breakout as evidence of sustained uptrend.

Wrong index, @charliebilello.  After 14 years in a range, the #NASDAQ broke out in 2014, reminiscent of the breakout after 16 years in 1982! https://t.co/dA2XnH6999

If this is 1929, the Dow would go back to 1989 levels, wiping out 28 years of gains. Great read via @michaelbatnick

https://t.co/YIhlbSpnTW https://t.co/WECl63rsT3


Summary: Bullish on equities: today's market is healthier than the Roaring '20s because it's climbing a wall of worry, not ignoring risk.

During the Roaring '20s, #equities were "to the moon."  They were not scaling the "wall of worry" and got slammed by the Great #Depression.  Today's market is much healthier, thanks to the wall of worry exemplified by articles like this one. https://t.co/hUIyRGbLMS

Goldman: The Last Time Stocks Went This Long Without A 10% Correction Was Just Before The Great Depression: https://t.co/RiOmY2Koy7 @zerohedge $SPY $SPX https://t.co/7YOFNdCO0T


Decred could solve most of Bitcoin's structural problems. Given its strong governance, Decred may be able to overcome the 21 million unit limitation

Summary: Bullish Decred: strong governance could solve Bitcoin's structural limits including the 21M supply cap.

If I understand it correctly, #Decred could solve most of #Bitcoin's structural problems. Given its strong governance, #Decred may be able to overcome the 21 million unit limitation, if 21mm ever inhibits the network from evolving. Thanks @placeholdervc for enlightening us! https://t.co/zTQ2muUra1

Decred Investment Thesis: https://t.co/afI9GJbmmt https://t.co/rpZiytjfgz


our bear case assumes that $TSLA loses two-thirds of its 17% global EV market share during the next five years and that its autonomous strategy fails, in which case our five-year price target is $560 … our bull case … five-year price target is $4,000-$6,000

Summary: Long TSLA with 5-year bear/bull price targets of $560 and $4,000–$6,000 on EV demand surge and autonomous strategy.

Negative responses to our open-source $TSLA model focus on changes we made to PP&E and R&D while maintaining our price targets.  Those responses highlight the short term time horizon of analysts in the public markets and their unwillingness/inability to model exponential growth.

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Based on #Tesla’s stunning results year-over-year in the first quarter relative to the $GM Bolt - the Model 3 sales up 6-fold from a base more than 50% higher than the Bolt’s, while the Bolt’s sales were flat - $TSLA should go full throttle in EV production.

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The shift in our model from spending from R&D to PP&E during the next five years is based on the demand metrics for #Tesla’s EVs that are surfacing around the world Check out not only the US but also Norway which the bears wrote off after subsidies lapsed last year.

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This week, @elonmusk highlighted in an internal email that #Tesla’s second quarter deliveries could surpass those in the fourth quarter, breaking another record.  If so, $TSLA should shift R&D dollars to #EV capex to pull even further ahead on its autonomous vehicle strategy.

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Because the investment world has been built on the linear growth industries that have evolved in post WWII experience, $TSLA’s exponential growth strategy seems out of place, if not impossible. Post WWII does not incorporate the last great wave of innovation.

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The last wave of innovation - exponential growth - was not the #Internet.  It was electricity, telephony, and the ICE in the late 1800’s/early 1900’s. Our shift from R&D to PP&E reflects a more aggressive pivot from trucks and utility storage to EVs based on recent EV demand.

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Based on Wright’s Law, our models suggest that global #EV sales will increase nearly 20-fold during the next five years, from roughly 1.4 million last year to 26 million in 2023. $TSLA should capture a significant share of the market.

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In an attempt to remain conservative, our bear case assumes that $TSLA loses two-thirds of its 17% global EV market share during the next five years and that its autonomous strategy fails, in which case our five-year price target is $560.

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Our bull case assumes that #Tesla loses one-third of its 17% global EV market share during the next five years and that its autonomous strategy succeeds, in which case our five- year price target is $4,000-$6,000.

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The yield curve is giving us clues that, after more than one hundred years, truly disruptive innovation and exponential growth have returned. Technologically enabled “good deflation” should increase broad based purchasing power and turbochargers volume growth.

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During the 50 years ended 1929, electricity, telephony, and the internal combustion combined to turbocharge unit growth and lower inflation.  The yield curve was inverted more than half of the time back then, with the steepest inversions during periods with the strongest growth.

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Back to the future?  Yes!


Summary: FB is dominating SNAP via Stories; implied long FB, short SNAP.

$FB is copying and crushing $SNAP. https://t.co/5ZLSlFZjkU

Instagram Stories are still wildly outpacing Snapchat. https://t.co/Nc44TZ8kMv https://t.co/VIsj3A2qxa


Summary: Bullish TSLA: compares it to early Amazon disrupting retail; negative media narrative misses the long-term disruption thesis.

@p_ferragu @WSJ The last time I experienced this “whack-a-mole” kind of “analysis” was with cash-burning $AMZN from 2002 to 2006.  #Amazon was setting traditional retail on fire but analysts didn’t have a clue.  $TSLA is doing the same to traditional autos and transportation.

Even it Tesla sells again this quarter in the US more than all other premium sedan manufacturers combined, we should be worried about demand, writes the WSJ. Isn’t that unbelievable? I find the systematic Tesla bashing of the Journal suspicious.  https://t.co/mqjDKTcKid via @WSJ


Summary: Conditionally bullish on Bitcoin and GBTC if Segwit2x analysis is correct.

If @jimmysong is right, then #XBT and $GBTC should do very well. https://t.co/jODchPaXAR

Segwit2x review by @LukeDashjr. Well worth reading.

https://t.co/sKeCWEG8gx https://t.co/YNz1hFIyuX


If $TSLA is even half right, @ARKInvest agrees that "The implications [would be] staggering."

Summary: ARK/Cathie Wood endorses Tesla autonomy thesis; even partial success would have staggering implications, implying bullish.

If $TSLA is even half right, @ARKInvest agrees that “The implications [would be] staggering.”

Tesla's Compelling Approach to Autonomy
https://t.co/n4UnA0GaDv


If Uber's pending upround hits $120 billion, shouldn't $TSLA's be multiples of #Uber's, not to mention #Airbnb's?

Summary: Bullish TSLA: argues its autonomous taxi valuation should be multiples of Uber's $120B upround plus Airbnb.

If Uber’s pending upround hits $120 billion, shouldn’t $TSLA’s be multiples of #Uber’s, not to mention #Airbnb’s?

Elon just described $TSLA’s #autonomous strategy, with 1 million potential “taxis”, like my new Model 3, on the road, combining the Uber and Airbnb models. No other competitor will come close during the next few years.  Congratulations to @elonmusk and your amazing #Tesla team!


Digital wallets are going to disintermediate and disrupt all kinds of financial services

Summary: Bullish on digital wallet leaders SQ and PYPL as Cash App hits 40M MAUs and digital wallets disrupt financial services.

If SensorTower’s numbers are correct, $SQ Cash App surpassed $PYPL’s Venmo and $JPM with 40 million monthly active users (MAUs) this month. Digital wallets are going to disintermediate and disrupt all kinds of financial@services.

It looks like Cash App hit 40 million MAUs.

SensorTower (data source) was pretty close to Cash App's disclosed MAUs of 24M in December 2019.

If their methodology didn't change recently, and the number is accurate, this would be huge.

1 in every ~7 US adults uses Cash App.


Summary: Bullish TSLA: autonomous taxi strategy combining Uber/Airbnb models gives multi-year competitive moat with no close rivals.

Elon just described $TSLA’s #autonomous strategy, with 1 million potential “taxis”, like my new Model 3, on the road, combining the Uber and Airbnb models. No other competitor will come close during the next few years.  Congratulations to @elonmusk and your amazing #Tesla team!

nothing short of incredible! Better than our numbers. Great job @elonmusk !!!!! $TSLA kills its numbers! #tesla


Summary: Endorses NFLX's Millarworld acquisition as terrific; bullish on the deal.

$NFLX's first acquisition is terrific! https://t.co/VLWLfXj3vS

Netflix hedges against Marvel by acquiring comics publisher Millarworld https://t.co/PDVQ2BOjsi https://t.co/BUkKfu6KmZ


Summary: Bullish on equities; SPY/VIX positive correlation seen as confirmation the bull market is gaining traction.

Positive correlation between the #VIX and stocks confirms that this #bullmarket is gaining traction. https://t.co/OBQjjRzrAr

Today was just 4th time $SPY closed up while $VIX up > 10%. Other 3: 3/14/94, 3/31/94 & 5/5/97.


Summary: Bullish TSLA: ARK values autonomous taxi networks at $2T; TSLA at $53B market cap is the US pole-position play, supporting the 'low if you believe in the future' framing.

According @ARKInvest, the #autonomous taxi networks should be worth $2 trillion today. $TSLA ($53B) is in the pole position in the US. https://t.co/AyCtP3AKPg

I should clarify: Tesla stock is obviously high based on past & present, but low if you believe in Tesla's future. Place bets accordingly … https://t.co/4zbc6vqZSZ


Summary: Bullish equities: ARK's 'deflationary boom' thesis could make this the strongest and longest bull market in history.

The strongest bull markets are when #equities are climbing a wall of worry.  This one qualifies and, given the “deflationary boom” that @ARKInvest is anticipating, could become the strongest and longest bull market in history! https://t.co/8Ed4kAooE2

2017 Is A Win For Active – Best Performance In A Decade https://t.co/fpORYyUPNq #TopStories #activeinvestmentmanagers $ https://t.co/AEloottMGP


Summary: Endorses supply-shock thesis for BTC and ETH; ETF demand absorbing years of new ETH supply in days.

The price of any good is determined at the margin, demand relative to supply. The math is mathin’ !

Since The Merge 1,030 days ago, only ~373k ETH net has been issued (accounting for the burn).

In just the last 9 days, ETH ETFs have pulled in ~380k ETH.

That’s 3 years of new supply eaten up in less than two weeks.

Supply shock coming for BTC and ETH


Summary: Cathie Wood implies Bitcoin's downturn has bottomed; worst is behind, bullish forward.

In The Bitcoin Monthly, @yassineARK, @downingARK, and @dpuellARK harness on-chain crypto analytics and macroeconomic analysis to understand crypto market dynamics. Thanks to the transparency of crypto networks, the weight of the evidence suggests that the worst is behind us.

In our July report of The Bitcoin Monthly:

▪Bitcoin closed July up 16.6%, rising from $19,965 to $23,325, its most significant gain since October 2021.
▪Market contagion appears to be contained, as deleveraging subsides.
▪Much more - read it here!
https://t.co/pZYBvklsFn


Summary: Bullish on COIN: S&P 500 inclusion will compel index-sensitive managers to buy, broadening the investor base.

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'

Well deserved recognition, @brian_armstrong and @coinbase! While you probably agree that active managers should depend on fundamental research, not index providers, to screen for stocks, @ARKInvest is pleased that index-sensitive managers will be compelled to consider $COIN now.

Coinbase just became the first and only crypto company to join the S&P 500.

This milestone represents what the true believers, from retail investors to institutional investors to our employees and partners, knew all along.

Crypto is here to stay.


Summary: Bullish TSLA: Samsung's cylindrical EV battery validates Tesla's battery strategy over prismatic OEM approach.

Validating $TSLA's cylindrical strategy after most traditional OEMs have gone prismatic. https://t.co/2HLGOc0JrP

Interesting to see Samsung unveil a #EV battery pack using cylindrical cells. https://t.co/49mjoIUViv


Attempting to explain how misunderstood $TSLA has been and how disruptive it will be, I have compared it to $AMZN. If our analysis - based on Wright's Law - is correct, #Tesla will have more of an impact on global transportation than #Amazon has had & will have on global retail.

Summary: Long TSLA: Cathie Wood argues it is deeply misunderstood and will be more disruptive to global transportation than Amazon has been to retail.

Attempting to explain how misunderstood $TSLA has been and how disruptive it will be, I have compared it to $AMZN. If our analysis - based on Wright’s Law - is correct, #Tesla will have more of an impact on global transportation than #Amazon has had & will have on global retail.

Elon Musk has faced the same skepticism as Jeff Bezos did during Amazon's first 10 years as a public company https://t.co/3p3n26ZBlY


Summary: Cathie Wood endorses bullish BTC view, calling it a sleeper with upside ahead.

Agree. #BTC is the sleeper! https://t.co/LEqJg2kavT

@NeerajKA yup, but the key is continued ridicule. which BTC definitely has.


Summary: Author views Watson for Oncology US hospital deployment as a meaningful positive catalyst for IBM.

Finally, a needle mover for $IBM. https://t.co/giX66iDMFR

IBM Watson for Oncology officially deployed in the first US hospital after multi-year trial. https://t.co/jH10bdclr8


If the #CyberCab robotaxi network scales as we believe it will, then #Tesla's gross margin (GM) should increase dramatically... its robotaxi margins should be SaaS-like, in the 70-85% range

Summary: Long TSLA on CyberCab network scaling to SaaS-like 70-85% margins + doubling down on low-cost EVs; GM and F sacrificing long-term for short-term shareholder demands.

Yes, at a time when many companies are bowing to short-term oriented shareholders who are demanding profits, dividends, and share repurchases NOW, #Tesla's increased investment in the largest #AI project on Earth is separating it from the auto and tech packs.

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Shareholders have rewarded $GM and $F in the short term for cutting investments in #EVs and robotaxis. In its earnings call last week, @elonmusk suggested that a US OEM might sign on to #Tesla's autonomous—or robotaxi—network, possibly this year, boosting our robotaxi forecast!

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If the #CyberCab robotaxi network scales as we believe it will, then #Tesla's gross margin (GM) should increase dramatically. While its GMs are likely to increase from 15-16% now to 25-35% as EVs gain share, its robotaxi margins should be SaaS-like, in the 70-85% range.

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The @WSJ suggested that #Tesla finally is heeding shareholder demands for less investment and more cash. @TashaARK and @skorusARK believe that @elonmusk is using cost savings from "unboxed" manufacturing to double down on low cost cars and the CyberCab network. Doubling down!

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Investor time horizons have collapsed from years to quarters in the risk-off environment that the Fed has engineered during the past three years. According to Morningstar, US active large cap growth managers have raised their exposure to the Mag 6 to 45% on average. What?

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Investors have piled into cash-rich megacap innovation stocks, a crowded trade, and are neglecting pure plays in disruptive innovation that are not in the broad based benchmarks. We believe this crowded trade will lead to subpar returns relative to those from small to large cap stocks that are not in broad based benchmarks.

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$TSLA did earn a place in broad based benchmarks and is in the Mag 7, but investors and journalists have shifted their attention to the Mag 6 in a tough macro environment, perhaps in response to @elonmusk's bold vision and willingness to invest aggressively in the new world.

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More evidence of fear in the equity markets is in the Depression-era-like concentration of stocks, suggesting a record-breaking flight to "safety", as shown in the chart below. https://t.co/b2G8OW2CtR


Shareholders have rewarded $GM and $F in the short term for cutting investments in #EVs and robotaxis


Summary: Long AMZN on ad revenue ramp; short GOOG and FB as Amazon takes share in digital advertising.

#Facebook's advertising revenues were $40 billion, #Google's $95 billion, $AMZN's $2.8 billion.  Amazon is making advertising a priority, which also will make life a little more difficult at the margin for $GOOG and $FB. https://t.co/xC9kyTmhQe

$AMZN has called out advertising as a primary focus. At only $2.8 billion in 2017 Amazon's advertising revenue was a fraction of $GOOG's $95 billion and $FB's $$) billion. With a powerful search engine at the point-of-sale, #Amazon will take share in this highly profitable space. https://t.co/PLXT7IKqxq


which also will make life a little more difficult at the margin for $GOOG and $FB


Summary: Sensor-based approach in China obviates LiDAR need, bullish for TSLA in China.

In China, sensors will obviate the need for #LiDAR. Great for $TSLA in China

This is pretty interesting - from $BIDU call last night: https://t.co/Af43wwnZ39 https://t.co/wmIx4k4FIw


Summary: Bullish TSLA as a leading contender to win the autonomous taxi network game on data advantage.

Data will win the #autonomous taxi network game!  #Tesla is a leading contender. https://t.co/ecYNrwz1v6

Tesla's global fleet reached 4B electric miles driven over the weekend https://t.co/QLcoYbdvWY $TSLA


the metals to gold ratio suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond yield should be around 2% today, not where it is at 3.8% or last October's 5%

Summary: 10-yr Treasury yield should be ~2% vs current 3.8%; strongly bullish duration / long Treasuries.

TLT is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

After I recorded “ITK” on Friday, today the VIX (Equity Volatility Index) shot up to 65, the fourth highest level in the past 40 years: after “portfolio insurance” failed on Black Monday in October 1987, Lehman went under in 2008, and COVID hit in 2020. What does this move mean?

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In 1987 and 2020, the panic/cathartic moves in the VIX created significant buying opportunities, particularly for stocks trounced during those downturns. In 2008, however, after the VIX spiked, the broad based equity markets did not bottom for another six months in March, 2009.

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In our view, the spike in the VIX today stems from conditions resembling both 1987 and 2008. On Black Monday in 1987, portfolio insurance failed because those relying on it tried to cash out at the same time, much like those relying on the carry trade with Japan today.

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For the past three years, investors and speculators borrowing yen at di minimis interest rates have been betting on its continued depreciation and reinvesting in higher yielding US fixed income or perhaps, as we have learned recently, the Mag 6.

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In the last week, as US statistics like employment and the PMI have disappointed expectations and, at the same time, the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates more than expected, investors and speculators have faced margin calls forcing them to unwind the yen carry trade.

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Delivering consistent returns over many years, the yen carry trade probably was leveraged and is hurting macro-oriented strategies disproportionately today. Like 1987 and unlike 2008, its impact could be limited.

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Unlike 1987 and like 2008, broad based price deflation could be more relevant today. As illustrated in ARK’s ITK on Friday, the metals to gold ratio suggests that the 10-year Treasury bond yield should be around 2% today, not where it is at 3.8% or last October’s 5%.

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If the 10-year Treasury should yield ~2% today, should the Fed funds rate be closer to 1%? Perhaps, unless we revisit the early 1900s when the booms associated with telephone, electricity, and the ICE resulted in inverted yield curves more often than not. Lots to discuss!


@dpuellARK's on-chain analytics have been pointing the way to higher price points

Summary: Endorses on-chain analytics pointing to higher BTC price points; shares Bitcoin Cycles target range of 104k–124k.

Happy day for bitcoin at $100,000! @dpuellARK’s on-chain analytics have been pointing the way to higher price points. Check out his “Bitcoin Cycles” paper at https://t.co/4GzS1p8NNC!

Bitcoin breaking 100k...

About a month ago in our "Bitcoin Cycles" piece, we flagged a potential price target range between 104k and 124k by year's end, based on the averaged performance multiple of all years sampled (2011-2023) and all halving years, respectively.

The lower https://t.co/VTujyZym1L


TSLA's balance sheet looks like a fortress compared to those of many other auto manufacturers. What a difference a year makes!

Summary: Bullish TSLA on fortress balance sheet and disruptive market-share gains vs weakened auto peers.

#Tesla: This is what truly disruptive innovation looks like!                      Oh, and TSLA’s balance sheet looks like a fortress compared to those of many other auto manufacturers. What a difference a year makes!

This is what gaining market share looks like. https://t.co/XxvoYCwqBK


bitcoin successfully tested $6,400, its 200-day moving average, this week. The "200-day" is a very important test in a bull market, according to traders.

Summary: BTC held 200-day MA at $6,400 — author frames this as a bullish signal in an ongoing bull market.

#bitcoin successfully tested $6,400, its 200-day moving average, this week. The “200-day” is a very important test in a bull market, according to traders.  Bitcoin’s low correlation to equities certainly helped as the $XIV, the “short vol” trade, ended in flames this week. https://t.co/uPbNW9EEBJ

$1,700? Even #Bitcoin's Bear Case Is Bullish - read @coindesk's latest piece from ARK CEO/ CIO @CathieDWood: https://t.co/6o0jHk3jip


adding roughly $500 million to $TSLA's free cash flow. $500 million is double the consensus expectation for its free cash flow this year

Summary: Fiat pooling deal adds ~$500M to TSLA free cash flow, double consensus — materially bullish catalyst.

To minimize EU fines for carbon emissions, Fiat will team up, or pool environmentally, with #Tesla, adding roughly $500 million to $TSLA’s free cash flow.  $500 million is double the consensus expectation for its free cash flow this year.

Fiat to pay Tesla so that Fiat can continue developing on the wrong technology path🤔


Summary: Bullish BTC: $6,000 200-day MA held as a good test, analogous to 2015 support pattern.

Traders provided important support for #bitcoin as it stabilized around its 200-day moving average in 2015, and they played the downside in January until it hit the important 200-day moving average around $6,000, a good test. https://t.co/SlB2WAUndr

This is pretty much what I’m expecting for 2018. https://t.co/V8B3p35JX9


Summary: Long crypto as decentralized hedge vs. banking-system failure; short US regional banks facing solvency erosion from deposit outflows and negative net interest margins.

Ironically, as crypto assets soared during the Silicon Valley Bank meltdown, this administration suggested that investors in regional banks - equity and bond holders - should prepare to be “wiped out” in the aftermath of an unprecedented 20-fold increase in the Fed funds rate.

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Now we are hearing anecdotes not only that businesses and individuals are hedging their fiat assets with some crypto assets but that they also are lowering risk and increasing returns by shifting from low yielding bank deposits into higher yielding money market funds, a win-win.

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As a result, now that they can borrow at will from a government facility at ~4.5%, regional banks seem to be moving from a liquidity crisis to a slower moving solvency crisis.

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Against depressed interest rates on the long-term assets they purchased during the coronavirus crisis, banks now are borrowing at ~4.5% to plug deposit outflows, causing net interest losses and lower earnings that will erode their equity and threaten their future.

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Given this negative feedback loop, why will deposits flow back to regional banks? If they do not, then M2 growth is likely to accelerate further into negative territory for the first time since the 1930’s, putting significant stress on both commercial and residential real estate.

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Why have bitcoin and other crypto assets appreciated during  this banking crisis? In our view and in contrast to those in the traditional financial world, many crypto assets face no central points of failure: they are decentralized, transparent, and auditable.

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Why would regulators deprive US citizens of access to crypto assets, “insurance” born in the 2008-09 global financial crisis against the probability, hopefully low, that once again the Fed and regulators have made policy mistakes that threaten our well-being?


regional banks seem to be moving from a liquidity crisis to a slower moving solvency crisis

US regional banks; KRE is standard ETF proxy


Summary: Cathie Wood: AI-driven disinflation will surprise to the downside in 6–9 months, profoundly bullish for long-duration bonds and equities.

One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy shock that is being monetized by the Federal Reserve would steepen the curve, not flatten it. The Fed is not monetizing this energy shock.

In our view, the bond market may be beginning to discount something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of artificial intelligence and technologically enabled productivity gains across the economy.

The cost to train AI models is falling dramatically. Inference costs are collapsing even more rapidly. At the same time, productivity growth appears to be accelerating beneath the surface of the official data, while unit labor costs remain remarkably subdued.

Much of the market narrative today is centered around tariffs, deficits, and structurally higher inflation. Yet the underlying signals increasingly suggest that disinflationary forces tied to innovation are building momentum.

We believe inflation is likely to surprise on the low side over the next 6–9 months. If that proves correct, the implications for interest rates and long-duration equities could be profound.

Historically, the market has tended to underestimate the speed and scale at which technologically driven innovation can reshape the macroeconomic environment.

I share my thoughts on this month's episode of In The Know.

The narrative says: dollar crashing, deficits exploding, AI killing entry-level jobs, recession looming.

We see something almost the opposite. What we think is actually happening in this month’s “In The Know” with @CathieDWood.
https://t.co/Ax02RKAjTq


Summary: Endorses bitcoin as a legitimate asset class, challenging Goldman's dismissal of BTC myths; implicitly bullish.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

.@ARKInvest would love to debate $GS on the merits of #bitcoin as a new asset class. In this blog, @yassineARK, @ARKInvest’s crypto analyst, debunks the long held myths that Goldman Sachs seems to be perpetuating.

Eleven years after Bitcoin’s creation, major financial institutions STILL dismiss it based on outdated arguments:

“bitcoin is too volatile”
“bitcoin is a bubble”
“bitcoin is for criminals”
“bitcoin is wasteful”

Here's why they have it wrong:
https://t.co/CD12cvkP0f


Summary: Bullish TSLA; Wayve's camera-only AV success validates Tesla's non-LiDAR autonomous driving approach.

Wayve's latest video shows a car using basic cameras and no base maps on roads its never seen before thanks to end to end imitation and reinforcement learning. Gives credit to a non-LiDAR approach. #Tesla


Summary: Lower oil prices are a net positive for the S&P 500; implied bullish on equities.

No.  Lower #oil prices are good for the S&P. https://t.co/VGldh92sC9


#Tesla's Flywheel is just getting started!

Summary: Bullish TSLA; flywheel is just getting started, endorsing ARK's latest research.

#Tesla’s Flywheel is just getting started!  Thank you @TashaARK and @skorusARK for pulling together your best-in-class research, and @wintonARK for leading the “charge”, so to speak! https://t.co/EGKbRXe9Uz


Summary: Bullish BTC: institutional trading milestone explains new high breakout, implying continued upward momentum.

Another important milestone for cryptoassets...starting with #bitcoin.  Now I understand why it broke out to a new high today. https://t.co/FqK6pF8RnX

It's official! LedgerX's institutional bitcoin trading platform is open for business, and traded $1m its first week: https://t.co/LM38SLJzIf https://t.co/6AZl31k3LO


Summary: Bullish on Tesla Cybercab; endorses forecasts implying a $15,000 production cost as compelling.

Forecasts that have been made:
-5.5 miles/kWh
-~$50/kWh
-5x faster manufacturing line

Not to be too 5 biased, but that strikes me as a car that could be made for $15,000


Summary: Oil price will peak when the Aramco IPO closes in 2018–2019, implying a top and decline thereafter.

Another clue that the #oil price will peak whenever the #Aramco deal is done in 2018 or 2019, at the latest. https://t.co/wK6gmhjmj7

OPEC extends oil production cut through end of 2018 https://t.co/zAuXOmvWa8 via @ReutersTV #video #oott #opec #oil #ReutersEnergy #ReutersTV #shale #permian #texas #saudi #russia https://t.co/Rla3YWx741


Summary: Frames ECB having no power to regulate Bitcoin as bullish; endorses bitcoin as global currency narrative.

Good news! Draghi suggests that #bitcoin is a global currency, and that the ECB's only role is to prevent cyberfraud. Open source will help. https://t.co/B4Ja29BCXw

Mario Draghi: European Central Bank Has 'No Power' to Regulate Bitcoin https://t.co/1DaXOglbHc https://t.co/5yL7nM8PDa


Summary: Bullish on growth/innovation stocks over 5-year horizon as brutal rate hike cycle nears end; expects catch-up rally.

US growth stocks; IWF Russell 1000 Growth ETF proxy

One more thought: @ARKInvest has a five year investment time horizon. Now that the most brutal interest rate increase in history is near an end, growth stocks in general and innovation-based strategies in particular should make up for lost time.

Thank you, @EricBalchunas, for defending active equity management. Upon hearing why I founded @ARKInvest in 2014, a friend who was not in the investment business said, “Oh, you mean the future of investing is investing in the future?” Yes! Please see ARK’s Big Ideas 2023.


Summary: Long TSLA: ARK sees autonomous platform driving >85% of enterprise value over next 5 years.

#Tesla's autonomous technology platform strategy is likely to account for more than 85% of its enterprise value in the next five years, according to @ARKInvest's autonomous technology team. Great work, @TashaARK, and @skorusARK, @DMaguireARK!

Our updated Tesla model is now out! https://t.co/C8CazW12CX Autonomous driving likely will be one of the most life-changing AI unlocks in history, and quite meaningful for Tesla shareholders: https://t.co/9jp5QTTmDi


Summary: Bullish on NVTA, GH, ADPT as top AI-in-genomics plays; explicitly excludes MYGN as a laggard.

In our view, $NVTA, $GH, #Grail, $ADPT, and #Tempus - not $MYGN - are the companies leveraging #AI most effectively in the #genomics space.

Connecting newly discovered mutations to the diseases they may cause is a gating factor to the clinical utility of sequencing-based diagnostics. Luckily, with each release of new AI tools for genetics researchers, our knowledge of disease biology accelerates. https://t.co/pblfx1URHe


not $MYGN - are the companies leveraging #AI most effectively in the #genomics space


ARKInvest believes it could lead $TSLA to super-exponential growth... If Elon and team meet these goals... all Tesla shareholders... will become more wealthy than they ever dreamed possible

Summary: Strongly bullish TSLA on robotaxi/humanoid robot/AI convergence thesis; projects 41% avg annual EBITDA growth over 10 years yielding super-exponential shareholder returns.

Thank you for your important perspective, @EricBalchunas. Glass Lewis and ISS know nothing about the convergence among technologies involved in robotaxis and humanoid robots. @ARKInvest believes it could lead $TSLA to super-exponential growth, but only with superior execution.

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What do Glass Lewis and ISS know about the convergence among the robots, energy storage, and artificial intelligence (AI) involved in robotaxis and humanoid robots? Have they researched the odds of Elon leading Tesla to 10 years of 41% EBITDA growth on average?

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Based on preliminary research, no company in history has grown EBITDA 41% at an annual rate, or ~30-fold, over 10 years. If Elon and team meet these goals, the impact will be much greater than on Tesla alone: productivity and real GDP growth will accelerate meaningfully, auto fatalities will drop more than 50%, and all Tesla shareholders—importantly, its employees and their families—will become more wealthy than they ever dreamed possible.

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I believe that history will decide that Glass Lewis and ISS have been menaces to innovation, enabling passive investors who care about “tracking errors” to their indexes but do not care about much else. As one of the first investors to put an active equity portfolio into an ETF, I have been shocked at conferences and elsewhere by how little these “investors” know or care about the companies in their portfolios.

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John Bogle had a great idea that lowered the cost and democratized investing, but in this extraordinary time of technologically-enabled, transformative innovation, passive “investors” should not be “voting” when they know not what they do. I believe that even Bogle would agree that the pendulum to passive has gone way too far!


Summary: Endorses Tesla's 4-year FSD lead as durable regardless of rival R&D spend; bullish TSLA.

.@jwangARK, our #AI analyst, worked at #Nvidia for nine years.  He should know.  $TSLA is four years ahead of the competition, no matter how R&D they throw at it.

"#Tesla’s full self-driving computer is the first such computer to launch in production vehicles and, according to our research, is four years ahead of the competition."

Learn more in our latest research: https://t.co/RKMI4TGnjN https://t.co/ExGvwvMUWn


Summary: NVDA priced ahead of curve at 25x revenue (bearish valuation); TSLA most obvious AI beneficiary targeting $8-10T autonomous TAM by 2030.

In 2014, most investors considered $NVDA, priced at ~$5, simply a PC gaming chip stock. In contrast, @ARKInvest’s first principles research pointed to #Nvidia as the premier equity play on #AI. Now up ~80-fold, investors seem to think NVDA is the only AI play. It is not!

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Since 2014, @ARKInvest has believed that Nvidia saw the AI future before most other chip companies, and now we believe it will continue to power the AI age. At 25X expected revenue for this year, however, $NVDA is priced ahead of the curve.

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Other companies with visionary leaders, strong global distribution and, perhaps most important, large high-quality pools of proprietary data should be big #AI winners, with revenues and earnings surprising significantly on the high side of expectations during the years ahead.

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In our view, $TSLA - at 6X revenues - is the most obvious beneficiary of the recent breakthroughs in #AI, as it aims for an $8-10 trillion revenue TAM in autonomous mobility by 2030. But, based on our research for the last five to six years, @ARKInvest sees dozens of AI winners!


$TSLA - at 6X revenues - is the most obvious beneficiary of the recent breakthroughs in #AI, as it aims for an $8-10 trillion revenue TAM in autonomous mobility by 2030


Summary: European bank stress (DB near cycle lows) signals regional crisis like 1997 Asia, calling for global monetary easing; bearish European banks, bullish on accommodative policy response.

European banks like #DeutscheBank have been pointing to trouble for a while. $DB is below its 2008-09 low and near its 2016 low.  @ARKInvest believes this crisis will be more like the Asian crisis in 1997, a regional problem and a call for global monetary accommodation. https://t.co/JOKR4Ae8OO

Wall Street drops on Italy worries https://t.co/RvH7xexFCJ


European banks like #DeutscheBank have been pointing to trouble for a while

European banks sector; EUFN is the standard ETF proxy


bitcoin's share of crypto network value has increased from the low 30% range to the 55-58% range, suggesting that it is the reserve currency of the cryptoasset ecosystem which, in economics, is an exalted position

Summary: Bullish BTC as dominant reserve currency of the crypto ecosystem; 'great time to pick through the ashes' after 80-95% drawdowns.

Crypto has entered the “valley of despair” in the world of “saddled S-curves”.  With most legitimate #cryptoassets down 80-95%, investors don’t want to admit ever had anything to do with them...a great time to pick through the ashes!

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#bitcoin’s share of crypto network value has increased from the low 30% range to the 55-58% range, suggesting that it is the reserve currency of the cryptoasset ecosystem which, in economics, is an exalted position.


Summary: Endorses Balaji's view that BTC and ETH lead, then FIL and XTZ are ripe for tokenization.

Cutting to the quick @ericjackson @CNBC : @balajis says that #bitcoin and #ether first, then #filecoin and #tezos...ripe for tokenization. https://t.co/FICzNjC9mp

CNBC – Blockchain Will Turn the Internet Into the World's Largest 'Stock' Market, Says Investor https://t.co/L5x7HnSuJL by @ericjackson


confidence in $AAPL's #AutonomousVehicle strategy has gone down based on its LiDAR focus

Summary: ARK's conviction in AAPL AV strategy declining on LiDAR approach; implicitly bullish Tesla's camera-only AI approach.

.@ARKInvest’s confidence in $AAPL’s #AutonomousVehicle strategy has gone down based on its LiDAR focus, which #Tesla considers a crutch in an #AI model that is more deterministic than probabilistic, and we agree.

“What is clear from Apple’s interest in cheaper lidar systems is that it wants to control the “perception stack” of sensors, computers and software to drive an autonomous vehicle, regardless of who makes the vehicle,...” https://t.co/tqtkDkUoYT


which #Tesla considers a crutch in an #AI model that is more deterministic than probabilistic, and we agree


Summary: Bullish bitcoin and equities: wall of worry signals stronger bull market ahead.

The higher the “wall of worry”, the stronger the bull market.  #bitcoin is climbing an epic wall of worry, as are equities. https://t.co/Bc6xK65wd7

China ban; Dimon doubt and now Buffet...yeah this is looking like a better investment by the day!

#BTD now stands for Buy The Doubt https://t.co/rpL9DgnqWl


Summary: Bullish TSLA; argues Blodget is missing the $2T autonomous taxi opportunity that justifies upside from here.

You are missing the $2 trillion global autonomous taxi network opportunity!  Please see @ARKindu research! https://t.co/iNSKU3jte9

This would support the current Tesla price. Doesn't leave upside, though. So if want return from here, needs to be much more. https://t.co/9iq1GGl5Ks


Summary: CathieWood recommends BTC, ETH, SOL, and possibly Hyperliquid as portfolio diversifiers against consensus, citing BTC-gold low correlation.

Against consensus thinking these days, bitcoin, ether, Solana, and perhaps hyperliquid could be good diversifiers. Since early 2020, the correlation between the bitcoin price and the gold price has been very low, 0.14. Gold led bitcoin in the last two major bitcoin bull markets.

@CathieDWood Agreed, however, I do think the point of "where else is the money going to go" is a valid one.

Most American's have no idea where to put their capital right now.


Summary: Bearish US regional banks on Fed inversion/deflation risk; bullish BTC and ETH as decentralized alternatives amid banking crisis.

US demand deposits - which make up the vast majority of M2 - have been falling since last August.  Now we are seeing the consequences of the yield curve inversion that began last July, which I feared last September and described in the thread below. The inversion has worsened.

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Many banks parked the COVID stimulus gusher in long term bonds at record low 1-2% interest rates, never expecting the Fed funds rate to surge a record-breaking 19-fold to 4.75% in less than a year. Now deposit outflows are forcing them to sell “safe” securities at losses.

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Deposits are leaving banks to take advantage of higher yields in money market and other funds. At Silicon Valley Bank, start-ups were responding to a drought in venture capital funding by draining deposits to fund their operations.

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Tonight the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp) announced that all depositors, both insured and uninsured, at SVB and Signature Bank, will be made whole while equity and bond holders are wiped out. Why, I wonder, will equity and bond investors remain loyal to regional banks?

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If the Fed continues to focus on lagging indicators like the CPI, and does not pivot in response to the deflationary forces telegraphed by the inverted yield curve, then this crisis will devour more regional banks and further centralize, if not nationalize, the US banking system.

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As a result, @yassineARK and the crypto team at @ARKInvest are not surprised that #BTC and #ETH appreciated as  US regional bank stocks imploded. Their blockchains are decentralized, transparent, and auditable. Banks are not and, in the last few days, have become less so.

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Regulators have focused investors on the threat that crypto poses to users, but this weekend turned that theory upside down. As a single point of failure in the US banking system, SVB became the threat to stablecoins and the DeFi ecosystem when it broke Circle’s USDC peg to the $

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The Fed always follows the fixed income market. The bond market now is demanding that the Fed ease, dramatically.


If the Fed continues to focus on lagging indicators like the CPI, and does not pivot in response to the deflationary forces telegraphed by the inverted yield curve, then this crisis will devour more regional banks


Summary: Bullish BTC; investment community is underestimating it, ARKInvest has conviction.

Many in the investment community are underestimating #bitcoin. @ARKInvest knows bitcoin.

10 years ago, Bitcoin mining was a hobbyist activity.

Today, it generates more annual revenue than some of the largest publicly traded companies in the world.

Spotify, eBay, Hermes, Chipotle, Hertz, and Hilton all generate less annual revenue than bitcoin miners. https://t.co/NKPEnvDnyW


Summary: ARK endorses $2,000 TSLA price target by 2027, driven by autonomy representing significant portion of future enterprise value.

Based on in-depth and differentiated research, @TashaARK, @skorusARK, and @DMaguireARK just published an update to ARK's #Tesla open-source model. If you disagree with any of the 40+ assumptions, please feel free to change them, and watch what happens to the price target!

1/ Our latest Tesla price target is out! $2,000 per share in 2027. Check it out! https://t.co/ltnXj907JT Similar to last year, we believe autonomy will represent a significant portion of Tesla’s future enterprise value.


Summary: Bullish TSLA: author argues Tesla mirrors Apple's trajectory and dismisses bearish thesis.

In his last letter, @davidein highlighted the great call that he made on $AAPL in 2010, and then tried to torch $TSLA.  What he doesn't seem to realize is that Tesla could be the next Apple. Read our full take below:
https://t.co/6ayfcknBog

Tesla Through the Lens of Apple 🔎 — a new collaborative piece from the @ARKInvest research team.

We outline all the ways that Tesla mirrors Apple's product & business strategy (and the ways it doesn't).

Share, enjoy, and send us feedback. 🙏

https://t.co/kXIHXYw9WN


Summary: Bitcoin user base doubling yearly and ETF publicity may have accelerated adoption, implying continued upside.

Woo's Law: #bitcoin user base doubles each year.  Publicity this year about a potential ETF could have turbocharged the trend https://t.co/n7C64froCA

Using Google Trends to Estimate Bitcoin's User Growth https://t.co/FC5XEeelS1 https://t.co/L2AwgVN90y


#Einstein is driving 1billion predictions per day, leading to accelerating growth, a "new world, the fourth industrial revolution"

Summary: Bullish CRM: author vouches Einstein AI is driving accelerating growth, durable-reading earnings commentary.

Listening to the $CRM call right now:  #Einstein is driving 1billion predictions per day, leading to accelerating growth, a "new world, the fourth industrial revolution," according to Mark @Benioff! https://t.co/0pBzzVLAle

.@AndrewYNg: artificial intelligence is the new electricity, and it will transform every industry #AI https://t.co/wGLzMxlcLD


Summary: Bullish crypto broadly; dismisses Schiller's collapse thesis, asserting cryptoassets will profoundly disrupt the world order.

Robert Schiller, brilliant as he is, has no idea whatsoever about the profound impact that #Cryptoassets will have, disrupting the existing world order. https://t.co/ozlkkkBcAL

Bitcoin Will ‘Totally Collapse,” Even if it Takes 100 Years: Nobel Prize Winner https://t.co/8nNY1E4hUN


Summary: AMZN favored over GOOG in tech race; Alexa seen as the voice OS winner post-CES.

$AMZN has a better shot than $GOOG:  after attending #CES, #ARK analyst @jwan584 believes that #Alexa is the operating system for voice! https://t.co/bHEDPaMs0E

VC pioneer smacks down Apple's chance of winning the tech race to a $1 trillion value https://t.co/0ZS7yCkaSG


Summary: ARK raises Tesla 5-year price target by over 50% to $4,600.

With many thanks to @TashaARK, @skorusARK, and our Director of Research, @wintonARK for their excellent work, please take a look at Tasha’s blog and scenario test the update to our #Tesla model on GitHub. Our 5-year price target has increased more than 50% to $4,600.

Check out our latest Tesla valuation blog, now live! Notable updates this year include Tesla's increased capital efficiency (work from @skorusARK) and our latest autonomous driving expectations. Thanks to the full ARK team for all the hard work! https://t.co/SWx3Zm7NJT


Summary: Long NVDA as a top play on graphics, AI, and autonomous vehicles; crypto inventory overhang seen as a temporary non-issue.

In late 2017 and early 2018, #Ethereum miners seemingly were so desperate for GPU’s that they loaded up on lower quality gaming GPUs. $NVDA had no clue how rife the inventory speculation was.  Classic!

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The good news is that NVDA is one of the best plays on graphics, #AI, and #AutonomousVehicles.  The crypto craze will mean nothing but opportunity in hindsight!


Summary: Bullish SoftBank on Boston Dynamics robotics upside.

SoftBank Group listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange as 9984.T

#Softbank should do very well with #BostonDynamics.  Japan knows what it is doing in #robotics! https://t.co/Dz2MU9UNDp

This Boston Dynamic robot's backflip displays dexterity, poise, and balance—all things that have typically been lacking in humanoids. https://t.co/4LesPwBRkP


Summary: NTLA, EDIT, CRSP as CRISPR patent beneficiaries from CRISPR-crop deregulation; PACB as sleeper via ag-bio long-read sequencing demand.

$NTLA, $EDIT, and $CRSP, the three major patent holders to CRISPR Cas-9, should be prime beneficiaries, but $PACB could be the sleeper, as ag-bio lends itself to long read length sequencing. https://t.co/ucvGyuRvwo

CRISPR crops—exempt from GMO regulations—reaching US market in record time https://t.co/DSKWbIR8GD


$PACB could be the sleeper, as ag-bio lends itself to long read length sequencing


Summary: Bullish TSLA: ARK research implies autonomous taxi fleet demand will command significant price premiums above current Model 3 pricing.

Based on ARK's research, fleet operators of #autonomous taxi networks will pay multiples of the Model 3's price to be first movers. https://t.co/hCNP6ENpOx

Thoughtful Model 3 review by @tsrandall, one of the most insightful journalists https://t.co/cuIKJ9NglN


Summary: ARK believes current Bitcoin signals will resolve to the upside.

The Bitcoin Monthly highlights how its transparency can help investors analyze and understand not only the blockchain’s health and security but also bitcoin’s fundamentals. Thank you @yassineARK @dpuellARK for creating this disciplined and dispassionate scorecard.

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Check out the bullish, bearish, and neutral signals that ARK’s crypto team has surfaced, and why we believe they will resolve to the upside.


Summary: Rejects bubble label on BTC and TSLA; $40B and $50B caps pale vs $2-3T internet bubble peak — both are not overvalued.

.@Forbes calls #bitcoin ($40 billion market cap) and $TSLA ($50B) bubbles. The #internet bubble peaked at $2-3 trillion. This is no bubble! https://t.co/PBfzegbgn4

Forbes - Bitcoin And Tesla Investors Should Carefully Read The Fed's Minutes via @forbes https://t.co/O6xlivjlaf


Summary: Bullish broad equities: lower rates + price deflation will unlock coiled upside, analogous to post-Depression market broadening.

In our view, the search for cash and safety in the equity markets today is as intense as that during the Great Depression in the early 1930s. When fear dissipated, the market broadened out and rewarded risk-taking once again.

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In the fourth quarter, as the Fed’s dot plot began pointing to much lower interest rates, the bull market in equities broadened dramatically. This far this year, the opposite has happened. In our view, more price deflation and lower interest rates will activate coiled equities.