By any rational metric this stock looks hideously overvalued. In reality you are more likely looking at $1B peak, plus further dilution making the current price more like ~$7B. That would be 7x peak sales, at a P2a stage

Summary: Bearish ORKA: me-too MoA, lower efficacy than Skyrizi KNOCKOUT, biosimilar competition, tiny real TAM, and hideously overvalued at 7x realistic peak sales with P2a data.

Awesome - Some $ORKA takes to engage with!  Let's have at it.

1) The KNOCKOUT study of Skyrizi showed a *higher* PASI100 response rate than what $ORKA did today.  So what did we learn that is new about ORKA that would justify it going up?  It didn't beat similar dosing of the on-market competitor - it actually came in lower.  That's bullish?  What's to stop $ABBV from running a quick label expansion study if this is such a big opportunity?

Oh, and what about ABBV's next generation IL23 that is already in studies, ABBV-547?  Will $ORKA be glad to compete against that?  What if they are both coming to market at the same time?  Is $ORKA's value halved because of that?  This is a hazard of developing a drug against a target that EVERYONE has known about for over a decade.  Everyone else can do it.

2)  Convenience?  $ORKA offers 1 or 2 injections a year versus 4 with skyrizi.  This is absolutely *nothing* against an entrenched competitor that will also go generic shortly after $ORKA's launch (assuming they do launch this).  These drugs cost >$50,000/year.  It would be highly irresponsible of doctors to prescribe this drug at that expense just for 2 or 3 fewer shots per year.  Financial malpractice.

The VAST majority of patients are controllable by the existing options (cosentyx, taltz, skyrizi, tremfya, bimzelx, icotyde).  4 out of those 6 drugs will be biosimilar right around the time of the $ORKA launch.  If patients have to step through even 2 of those drugs (as they ASBOLUTELY SHOULD), 95%+ of the market will be eliminated immediately.

Convenience of a fewer shots per year at the expense of  hundreds of thousands of dollars of treatments per patient...absolutely RIDICULOUS.  Supporting this type of medical expenditure when it isn't necessary is borderline immoral.

3)  How would ABBV pushing a higher dose of their own drug cannibalize their own drug?  This just literally does not make any sense at all.  But besides the fact that literally just doesn't even make basic sense...again, ABBV already has their *own* next gen IL23 mAb with higher potency and a longer half life just like $ORKA...are you factoring that competitor in too?  I doubt it.

4)  ORKA-002 has all the same problems as 001.  If there is no need for the drug, then there is no need.  It doesn't matter if the new, unnecessary drug targets IL23 or IL17.  We will have MULTIPLE generic versions of BOTH.

You cited the risk to your thesis being that the PASI100 is not differentiated.  Well it was lower than KNOCKOUT with skyrizi and roughly the same as Bimzelx (again, already on the market for years).  So again, why should the stock be up?  What bar did it hurdle?

You also cite Skyrizi as a $17.5B franchise...This is wrong for $ORKA.

Actually only about $10B of Skyrizi sales right now are in psoriasis.  $ORKA is specifically prevented from using their drug in other diseases like UC/Crohn's which make up a huge chunk of the Skyrizi revenues.  So your TAM shrinks yet again, by almost half!

Now let's look at Bimzelx as a market comp.  Bimzelx actually brought a *new* MoA to the market (IL17A/F) and accomplished the highest PASI100 rate ever seen at the time (roughly the same in P3 as what $ORKA just showed in a small P2a today).   So, it actually offered something both new and better than what the market had when Bimzelx enterred..  In 2025 it did $2.2B in sales, but only ~half of that was in psoriasis (vs its other large indication of HS).

Consensus peak sales estimates for Bimzelx are around $6B, including HS and Pso.  Let's halve it to get Pso peak sales ~$3B.

$3B in peak sales for a new MoA drug with better efficacy than anything else on the market at the time that entered against ZERO biosimilar competition from Cosentyx, Taltz, Skyrizi, or Tremfya, and entered the market in 2023, likely 7+ years BEFORE $ORKA will have a chance to get to market.  And since then, another supposed megablockbuster drug has also launched into the psoriasis market with Icotyde.  Just how many megablockbusters can this market handle???

So, with all of those massive tailwinds for Bimzelx, it can only muster ~$3B in peak Pso sales?  What is $ORKA going to do with a me-four MoA going against a stacked roster of biosimilar and 2 megablockbuster branded drugs 7 years later?  Isn't even $3B peak sales *far* too generous by this comp?  Is $2B too generous?

Well at $80/share right now $ORKA's fd market cap is ~5.4B (that's using the share count directly from their own deck).  That does not include significant dilution they will need to encounter to get through P3 studies.  But let's be overly generous and totally ignore the dilution needs AND graciously assume $2B peak sales.

With P2a data in hand, this would be trading at >2.5x peak sales?  With P2a data???  And again, I do not even believe the narrative that this gets $2B peak sales against 4 generic blockbusters, 2 branded blockbusters, and whatever other next-gen IL23 the likes of ABBV and JNJ will bring to the market over time.

In reality you are more likely looking at $1B peak, plus further dilution making the current price more like ~$7B.  That would be 7x peak sales, at a P2a stage...(again, these are *my* numbers).  That's more than they'd get for late phase M&A premium already.

By any rational metric this stock looks hideously overvalued.  You have to simply believe that the American medical system and the docs who work in it are willing to totally ignore billions of dollars in healthcare expenses just so some people can have 2-3 fewer near pain free injections per year...Ridiculous.  As someone who is sick of dealing with prior auth BS all the time (like all doctors/healthcare teams are), I'm telling you we are going to prescribe this biosimilars like hotcakes.

And that's the way it SHOULD be.  That is how the system is SUPPOSED to work.  There should not be massive financial rewards for copy/pasting decade old medical science into new drugs with *minute* points of differentiation.  We should be seeking to reward innovation, not junk like this.  If the argument is that the drug should be developed to serve the perhaps 1% of the psoriasis TAM that we can't get under control with all available options that we have right now, then yeah, sure, let's help those patients.  But let's also be realistic about what that TAM is.  Small.  Fair valuations should reflect that.

@A_May_MD This is what I shared yesterday with @jfais20  - when I can, I will add more color. ORKA (L). I wanted to share some thoughts as to why I am still adding to ORKA at these levels and is one of my top positions (current avg. cost $25 with recent additions).

In my view, it is the


Summary: Bullish NKTR: rough calc suggests Rezpeg outperforms Dupixent on 1-year EASI75 maintenance, surprising upside.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Lot's caveats to this as it's a rough calculation, but given higher maintenance of EASI75 responses on $NKTR Q12W regimen and a very similar absolute rate of EASI75 on induction when compare to Dupixent...

...A higher proportion of patients achieve EASI75 responses at 1 year on Rezpeg than on Dupixent.

Again, caveat emptor and further details on the data could change this a little, but...who had this on their bingo card??


Summary: NVO triple G data at 24 weeks looks favorable vs LLY's comparable data; implied bullish lean on NVO.

Cross trial and China data caveats, but 19.7% at 24 weeks for $NVO triple G looks quite good.  Probably a few % points better than $LLY triple G at 24-week timepoint. https://t.co/ylgf4vTEOq

$NVO announces topline results from a Chinese Ph. 2 trial of UBT251, a triple agonist of the receptors for GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon (triple G). $LLY

UBT251 led to a statistically significant mean weight loss of up to 19.7% after 24 wks.

https://t.co/4F1XMC2jmO


$ABVX has neither. Preclinical toxicology ruled out genotoxicity. The methotrexate example you provide is actually one that is an excellent point for the $ABVX bull case.

Summary: Bullish ABVX: obefazimod has neither genotoxicity nor immunosuppression, so lacks the cancer-risk drivers seen with methotrexate — strengthens the bull case.

Methotrexate is severely genotoxic.  It’s literally chemotherapy for leukemia and used to abort early pregnancies it’s so genotoxic.

That genotoxicity = cancer risk whether it’s used at immunosuppressive doses or not.

Again, genotoxicity and immunosuppression are the two potential causes of carcinogenicity. $ABVX has neither.  Preclinical toxicology ruled out genotoxicity

The methotrexate example you provide is actually one that is an excellent point for the $ABVX bull case.

@A_May_MD @Clarksterh Here is an example of a therapy that doesn’t increase serious infections (but non serious, does obefazimod doesn‘t increase non serious infection?) but increases cancer risk:

https://t.co/rYEyBdfQG4 https://t.co/9NMpC0SaYx


Summary: Bearish NVO: cagrisema was already evidently inferior to LLY; market overpriced the drug; implicitly favors LLY.

Who are the people who thought cagrisema was worth this much for $NVO?  I want to find and study them.

The cross trial comparison data that we already had clearly showed Cagrisema was worse than $LLY  by essentially the same margin we saw today…

You already hadn’t written this drug completely out of the valuation?  SERIOUSLY?!  Who are you people?  How can I become your counterparty?


Summary: Both LLY and NVO should be trading higher from current levels; author is bullish on both.

@sharkbait_bio It hurts them both.  LLY and NVO should both be up more IMO, but I'm biased there.

@A_May_MD What are the odds they let it go this long because it hurt LLY less than NVO..? So clearly illegal


Summary: Bullish NVO; market underestimates the growth curve on oral GLP-1 launches, both oral wegovy and orforglipron can win.

WL difference between oral wegovy and orfo is a much smaller different than between the injectables.  Smaller pill and no fasting requirement will win some over for orfo and I’m more bullish on that launch overall.  But still, two can win.  Market seems to be sleeping on the slope of this curve (early stage parabola)

@A_May_MD Wegovy pill sales will be far higher than any analyst have baked into their models.

According my estimates of the new capacity coming online the coming heara,  $NVO can supply plus 3 million from get go and that will cross 10 million during 2027

It will be interesting to see


$ABVX's better than best case endoscopic remission scores almost certainly mean the drug confers a significantly REDUCED risk of colonic dysplasia in the long run

Summary: Bullish ABVX: dysplasia concern is overblown; strong endoscopic remission data actually implies reduced long-run dysplasia risk.

Absolutely not.  One case of dysplasia in a UC study?  Zero concern there.

Also, Any highly effective drug in the long run actually *reduces* dysplasia risk by eliminating chronic inflammation.

$ABVX’s better than best case endoscopic remission scores almost certainly mean the drug confers a significantly REDUCED risk of colonic dysplasia in the long run.

@A_May_MD Very detailed analysis. Thanks Adam. Sort of agree. To me the prostate and breast can be unlucky stats (pts randomization etc). However do you agree that it is clear Obe 50mg had higher dysplasia risk? NMSC may be not a big deal


They'll stay mad when it keeps going higher.

Summary: Expects NKTR to keep moving higher, dismissing persistent bears.

@avidresearch It’s just the same people who’ve been wrong nonstop all along.  They’ll stay mad when it keeps going higher.

Wow seeing some poor 🐻 takes on $NKTR

Rezpeg safe and effective for long term usage in AA and AD.


Summary: Bearish on APGE; even a 50% drop would leave it overvalued.

@veg_super Perhaps it does stay overvalued, but it could be cut in half and still be overvalued

@A_May_MD Short stock or puts? I think it will stay overvalued like apge and other overvalued bios until commercialization


Summary: HIMS facing FDA, DOJ, and SEC — author says it's done (SOL).

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

$HIMS is under SEC investigation?! https://t.co/mpIBg6ABVj


Summary: Author agrees LLY, GPCR, and NVO are worthy long swings after big down days driven by HIMS news.

@stockassassin74 Agree.  IMO worthy of a long swing

@A_May_MD Think $lly and $gpcr big down days in large response to $hims news today with $nvo as well


Don't forget that $NVO long. If compounding really is getting squashed here, that $NVO upside probably beats the $HIMS downside.

Summary: Long NVO: if compounding is being squashed, NVO upside likely exceeds HIMS downside.

@compound248 Yesterday:

 “Yet, $NVO is barely up after hours and $HIMS is barely down after hours.

I have positioned my portfolio accordingly 🤷🏻♂”

Don’t forget that $NVO long.  If compounding really is getting squashed here, that $NVO upside probably beats the $HIMS downside.

My Brothers in Finance,

How did you not price this into $HIMS today? Why did you need this tweet from the General Counsel of HHS?

The Head of the FDA all but named Hims in his tweet yesterday - this was obviously coming.

$HIMS down 13% after hours.

mArkeTs ARe eFfiCieNt https://t.co/TTArgy1lAh


Summary: Expects NVO to bounce back into the $40s on upcoming investor call, citing fastest drug launch ever and bombed-out valuation.

$NVO investor call in 2 hours.  If they can turn around the sentiment even *slightly* the stock could get a quick bounce back into the $40s.

Hopefully they can grab the attention of the people (i .e. almost everyone) who have somehow ignored the fact that this absolutely *bombed out* company is in the middle of the fastest drug launch of all time…among other positive recent developments


Summary: Bullish NKTR as the sole phase-3-ready new MoA in a wide-open dermatology space; market underpricing the opportunity.

Would still use shitty old Nemluvio before going to a cancer label drug imo.  Even though Nemluvio truly barely does anything at all.  Worth a try to avoid cancer risks.  This space is just wide open for a new MoA and the ONLY thing phase 3 ready is $NKTR

Idk wtf the market is waiting for, but 🤷🏻♂

@A_May_MD If $SNY actually does take it to market, do you see any dermatologists prescribing it to those who fail Dupi?

To me it seems why not go with a JAKi then? At least you get highly superior efficacy for the risk.

Ofc that's all assumeing Rezpeg isn't in the market yet.


Summary: NVO will surprise to the upside next week.

$NVO gonna surprise some folks next week https://t.co/N2OLZlfkRG


Summary: Expects NKTR to reach a price in the $60s (6 handle), implying upside from current levels.

@biotech_cash @seedy19tron Idk about atm but I do see a 6 handle in our future

$NKTR 🤓closing today at $65 and then deal at the market AH? @A_May_MD @seedy19tron


even my "conservative" projection means ~50% upside over the coming months

Summary: Long NKTR; even conservative scenario implies ~50% upside over coming months, fair value closer to $200.

I think closer to $200 is what it should be worth but understanding when and why the market adjusts to certain valuations is one of the key components of being successful in investing.  Gotta be realistic.

Plus, even my “conservative” projection means ~50% upside over the coming months…not really all that conservative to be fair

@A_May_MD The last page of your $nktr update sounded really bearish to me. You explained in dozens of pages why it should be a >$200 stock now, but then say „well maybe we even see $100 this year“. With $abvx you stood by your view of fair value and I think it influenced the trajectory.


These drugs are going to do huge numbers. They ARE worse drugs, but I'm telling you - people you'd never imagine wanting a GLP1 are going to be popping these pills.

Summary: Bullish LLY and NVO on oral GLP-1 launches; high on/off discontinuation is a feature driving mass-market consumer demand far beyond injectable addressable market.

Good oral wegovy #s this morning.  $LLY and $NVO both responding well.

These drugs are going to do huge numbers.  They ARE worse drugs, but I’m telling you - people you’d never imagine wanting a GLP1 are going to be popping these pills.

Discontinuation rates will be high.  It’s a feature, not a bug.  Patients will come off and on these things all the time, losing 5 lbs here and there.  DTC channels will be the vector for this type of use.

People comparing this to the injectables and being bearish on the launches because of attrition/discontinuations are making a mistake.  The use of these drugs will, in my opinion, largely not be “medical” in the way that the injectables are.  Expect very high on and off rates, but know that half your friends are going to be using these things.

Tbh doesn’t seem like $NVO or $LLY have responded adequately to the out of the gate rocket signal we are seeing for oral launches.

Seems to be a lot of pent up demand, which I’m guessing comes from marginally obese/overweight people who don’t feel like they need an injectable


$LLY and $NVO both responding well. These drugs are going to do huge numbers.


Summary: Long ABVX; M&A valuation well above current price, deal seen as inevitable, prefers waiting for post-maintenance and potentially Crohn's data to maximize acquisition premium.

A few serious/non-memey words on $ABVX for the first time in a while.

Nobody knows how much of this M&A rumor smoke coming out of France is real.  A deal, if any, could be happening soon, or it could take quite some time.

What I do know is that I have never once wavered in my preference for them to wait until after the maintenance data hits to sell the company, because this should help solidify their position and get a higher price (not to mention some potential tax implications).

Those who read my pitch on $ABVX back in the day may recall that the incredible strength of Obefazimod's P2b maintenance data was one of my main bull points for the company's odds to hit in P3 induction.

Looking back at the efficacy table I assembled in the pitch, we can see that $ABVX's P2b maintenance data blew away....everyone.  Every competitor was inferior on this (caveat emptor) cross trial comparison - unlike the induction data.

This could reasonably imply that Obefazimod's true strength is actually in its long term/maintenance treatment, with maintenance data being even stronger than (now extremely impressive) induction data.

Now, given how incredibly good the P3 induction data ended up being, if the P3 maintenance data take a similar "leap" in efficacy compared to induction...the company might just have the argument of being the most efficacious drug on the market over long term treatment.

Keep in mind though, that although the 65% remission rate they saw in P2b comfortably hurdled all the competition (with 2nd place Rinvoq way down at 52% in P3), Obe's remission rate won't be that high in P3 maintenance because this time the trial is blinded, not open label.

Still, the point stands - ABVX's maintenance data were the superior/strong point of their P2b dataset.  If that also ends up being the case in the P3 dataset, the asking price is going up, full stop.

Fine by me if the company waits until post-maintenance data in Q2 to sell.  At the very least I would expect them to stay independent through the upcoming ECCO conference in February, where they have ~2 dozen presentations.  This will be their first major opportunity since the data came out to really burst onto the scene and market themselves to the GI community at large.

*Maybe* a would-be acquirer would want to make buzz by bringing in the asset before that event, but again, my preference is and always has been a post-maintenance deal.

---

And then one more point...this one a bit more interesting.

What if $ABVX gets past the maintenance data and still hasn't sold?  Well, then the next catalyst on the horizon is the Crohn's data.

Is there any chance that $ABVX might wait for the Crohn's data to sell?  People are split on the probability of success for that readout, but adding Crohn's to the label would just about double Obefazimod's TAM, with the current valuation being almost entirely based on its opportunity in UC...do your own math on what that could theoretically mean for the stock price.

It's no secret that a hit in Crohn's would be a huge deal for their valuation, but here's the interesting part:

Recall:  In my $ABVX pitch where I predicted that they were going to hit (and resoundingly so) on UC induction, a key part of my bull thesis was that the company had obliquely given us blinded/blended response data for the trial that almost proved it was going to hit.

This was due to a quirk in the trial design wherein, the company was blinded to the response/remission rates in the study, however, they were NOT blinded to maintenance trial enrollment after induction...and only induction responders could enroll into maintenance.  So, they didn't know the response rate ahead of time...but...they knew the response rate ahead of time 😉😉

Well, the Crohn's trial has the same quirk...only responders enroll into maintenance, and the company is going to know what their trial enrollment rates look like...

Point being, if we get past ECCO, and past maintenance data, and *still* all we have is smoke and rumors around this much-discussed buyout...well, there might just be a reason for $ABVX's quiet confidence in such a scenario.

In this case, patience is key IMO.  You'll neither find me selling the dips nor lighting options premiums on fire on the rips.  Zooming out it is all very simple to me.

I believe I have a good estimate of the M&A valuation of this company, it is not trading near that level currently, and I personally view the deal as a simple matter of time.

Who knows, but time will tell.  Good luck!


Summary: Bullish ABVX: cancer rates vs background incidence and FDA precedent show no basis for black box warning, initial sell-off reaction was wrong.

Another key point that the initial reaction missed here is the fact that cancer risk is really not gauged by a comparison to placebo.  It is gauged by a comparison to expected background cancer incidence.  The placebo arm showing no cases of cancer is not important because the study is not powered to detect low rate events like this *at all*.  Again - statistical noise.

The initial gut reaction is to look at the vs placebo numbers and freak out.  What actually matters (and what takes far more time and thought to do) is to compare to background rates and review of FDA precedent...these clearly show that there shouldn't even be concern about a black box for malignancy risk for $ABVX - otherwise how do you explain Sotyktu with a ~50% higher per patient year cancer rate and a perfectly clean label???

Always sharp @drug_smolecules making the case here that $ABVX doesn't even get a black box warning by comparing malignancy rates to Sotyktu, which was under a huge microscope for safety because its target (TYK2) is a member of the JAK family.  Sotyktu did NOT get a black box


Summary: Bullish on NVO: bad news priced in from $142 high, fastest drug launch ever still ongoing.

@CloisterRes @Spreckels_Organ There are bear theses indeed.

This was a $142 stock not even 18 months ago 😅

Fair to say a lot of bad is getting priced in!

And of course I repeat myself, but…fastest drug launch of all time ongoing

🤷🏻♂ 🤷🏻♂ 🤷🏻♂

@Spreckels_Organ @A_May_MD Oh no, our mega blockbuster will only do $40bn of sales through 2034 instead of through 2038


A liquid, 'consensus' name that you can set and forget with high probability of returning >50% by YE (I personally see the odds of closing the year <$180 as very low)?....Sign me up.

Summary: Long ABVX with high conviction; sees >50% upside by year-end (~$180+), with forced selling by biotech funds creating a temporary non-fundamental discount.

Great article altogether by @KevinLMak on how he arrives at an $ABVX bull thesis as a generalist.  You should read the whole thing, but the lines below are far too good not to share:

👉"The result is an unusual dynamic. You get the benefit of shared understanding without the usual overvaluation that consensus creates.

In that sense, this is a meta-contrarian position. It is locally consensus within biotech, but globally ignored. The usual mechanism by which consensus ideas become fully priced never really engages."👈

(Exceptionally good writing paired with exceptionally strong logic & intellect🤌🤌🤌)

A different point from my end that goes along the same line of thinking as Kevin's:

The people closest to the $ABVX story are the biotech specialist funds that were holding this stock all along, even at $8/share only a few short months ago.  They, more than anyone else, understand the story and the valuation here.

Now, with what was for some already a mid/large position at $8/share, the stock rising >1,300% in a few months makes it an unacceptably large position within a tightly regulated portfolio.

The result is that the very investors who know and like the stock the most are being forced to sell to reduce exposure, for entirely non-fundamental reasons.

This is especially noteworthy for Sofinnova, historically the company's largest investor, who is in the process of liquidating their position simply because their (interestingly designed (French)) fund has a set lifespan by which they must return cash to LPs.

All of this helps to serve as an explanation of why an opportunity still exists here.

Yes, everyone in biotech has heard of $ABVX by now and yes, it has already gone up a ton.  But, there are reasons to explain why the stock still trades at $115 that aren't simply..."Well, that's just what it's worth right now"...  Importantly, those reasons are temporary, and IMO unlikely to last for long.

I've never seen a more consensus M&A name in my life, and the stock isn't trading near even the most conservative M&A valuation estimates.

A liquid, "consensus" name that you can set and forget with high probability of returning >50% by YE (I personally see the odds of closing the year <$180 as very low)?....Sign me up.


$HIMS' entire GLP-1 operation is about to come down... This will be a case study of management and legal disasters if the FDA really cracks down on the whole thing

Summary: Bearish HIMS: FDA crackdown on GLP-1 compounding will destroy their entire GLP-1 operation, not just the pill.

IMO $HIMS’ entire GLP-1 operation is about to come down.

$HIMS may backing off of the GLP-1 pill now, but they opened Pandora’s Box here, coaxing the FDA into ***FINALLY*** cracking down on the overall GLP-1 mass compounding scam that $HIMS has been conducting/profiting from.

Check the FDA press release:  Notice that the word “pill” doesn’t appear once.  No mention of “oral” either.  That’s clearly not what the FDA was specifically talking about - it’s literally not mentioned at all.

The FDA is signaling that they’re cracking down on GLP-1 compounding in general, and of course even named $HIMS specifically.

$HIMS was getting away with something they shouldn’t have been.  They should’ve laid low and kept it going.  Instead they got greedy and overconfident that the (inexplicably slow) FDA would just keep letting them get away with it, and they pushed it too far.

This will be a case study of management and legal disasters if the FDA really cracks down on the whole thing, as they obviously *should*.


Summary: Confirms active short position in APGE.

@PikaCapital Interesting.  Solid proof that you didn’t read the post where I say that I *am* short $APGE.

You’re not just uninterested in meaningful dialogue, you even want to talk trash clearly without even reading the post.

My returns own you.  Contribute or shut up, loser.

$APGE I think he might be still  short APGE. Cry harder, Adam.


Summary: HIMS potentially disrupting compounders could be big positive news for branded GLP-1 players NVO and LLY.

@masterlongevity Legitimately they could be messing up the game for many other compounders, which is why this could be really big news for $NVO & $LLY

@A_May_MD The other compounding pharmacies must absolutely hate $hims mgmt right now


I am still short. And yes, I still think the company's prospects are horrible, like I've been saying for years

Summary: Still short NTLA; company prospects described as horrible, conviction sustained over years.

“Post all your $NTLA transactions and share position size just because I blatantly misinterpreted the video you posted and used my misunderstanding to accuse you of wrongdoing even though what I accused you of is already demonstrably false from the info you initially provided.”

Quite the demand.  I clearly don’t owe you this especially since you can see there were zero transactions of any kind on the 25th, but to remove doubt from anyone who may skim your posts and be misled by the stuff you literally just made up, here - you can see the most recent short transactions prior to any partial covering occurring.

And yes, I am still short.  And yes, I still think the company’s prospects are horrible, like I’ve been saying for years both during times when I have been short and during times when I have had no position at all.

@A_May_MD Just post ALL the NTLA-related transactions from October to now. No semantics.


Summary: Bullish ABVX after hiring a CCO who launched Entyvio, dismissing prior concerns.

$ABVX panicans were worried about a CCO hire and the company just went out & got the dude who launched Entyvio.

Let's go! 🔥🔥🔥


Summary: Holds NVO long as a short-term bottom turnaround trade, watching tomorrow's AGM/investor call for catalyst.

@nahushabiotec @investseekers I am 🤷🏻♂

Expected a short term bottom turnaround trade but this thing is slow 😓

Let’s see what the AGM/investor call have in store tomorrow.  Hopefully some more encouraging tone than their doomsday earnings call most recently.

@A_May_MD @investseekers Are we long $NVO Adam !


I think we are getting close…I think we will be sitting on an absolutely glaring M&A candidate, especially at these prices…it's not often you see multi-indication I&I assets with a new/unique MoA (and a Q3M dosing interval) trading at these prices

Summary: Bullish NKTR: bold Phase 3 strategy, multi-blockbuster AtD potential, and emerging M&A candidacy make it a compelling buy at current prices.

Seriously, look at the pharma giants ($LLY, $SNY, $REGN, $AMGN, $ABBV, $PFE, $GALD) that have run AtD P3 programs and *none* of them have run an exclusively bio-experienced trial like $NKTR is going to.  Little old $NKTR is going bigger/bolder with Rezpeg than anyone in pharma ever has in AtD.

They’re treating Rezpeg like it’s the real deal, and if a trial like this hits…I see no way it isn’t a multi-blockbuster in AtD alone.  “The only biologic with labeled use for post-biologic patients” would market *so* strong.  If you really could dominate that 2L market you’re talking >$5B peak sales *easily* - a trial like this would certainly help with 2L domination.

For all the talk of $NKTR being a shitco (even by me), they’re taking a bigger and bolder strategy to developing their drug than literally THE BIGGEST pharmas in the world took with theirs.

As for the $NKTR valuation - I don’t understand it *at all*.  Yeah, I get there’s sort of a catalyst desert (though you should not be sleeping on these treatment-free interval updates IMO).

But there’s also always that one special type of surprise catalyst looming…In the thousands of words I’ve written about $NKTR over the last year I’ve never ever referred to it as a clear M&A candidate.

But now, with 2 blockbuster indications and a bold P3 strategy unfolding, I think we are getting close

If $NKTR can get this $LLY litigation resolved, I think we will be sitting on an absolutely glaring M&A candidate, especially at these prices…it’s not often you see multi-indication I&I assets with a new/unique MoA (and a Q3M dosing interval) trading at these prices…make a deal Howie!

Last night we learned $NKTR is running a specific/separate phase 3 trying to become the *only* atopic dermatitis biologic with a biologic-refractory indication specified on the label.

Would be huge!


$ABVX is the polar opposite, and it will be bought out this year (imo, and unless they opt to play the Crohn's data, in which case it sells in early '27)

Summary: Bullish ABVX; expects buyout this year or sale in early 2027, backed by biotech specialist investors; explicitly not comparable to VKTX.

$VKTX had zero biotech specialist investors backing it because it was a turd all along.  $ABVX is the polar opposite, and it will be bought out this year (imo, and unless they opt to play the Crohn’s data, in which case it sells in early ‘27).

Holding through that would be one way to make money.

Selling calls on the volatility like you mention could certainly be another.

“Only way”?  Settle down.  This is NOT Viking therapeutics.  Full stop.

$ABVX turned into a $VKTX situation here. Been saying, the only way to make decent money here for the next year is selling calls on the hype.


Watch how $NTLA downside begets $NTLA downside. When you need to raise money as badly as they do, the negative price action can start to spiral as worsening dilution is implied. But what do I know. I'm just a stupid short.

Summary: Short NTLA: cash needs force dilutive raises, downside spirals as implied dilution worsens with falling price.

$NTLA finally red.  Took longer than I expected.  How do they raise the cash they need from here?  Are they going to be forced to take on debt?

---

$12s now.  Watch how $NTLA downside begets $NTLA downside.

When you need to raise money as badly as they do, the negative price action can start to spiral as worsening dilution is implied.

But what do I know.  I’m just a stupid short.


Summary: Long LLY on rising oral GLP-1 demand and declining compounders as dual tailwinds.

@LogicalThesis Pharma is definitely not my specialty, and yet, I am long 🤷🏻♂

---

@LogicalThesis But also bought $LLY at the same time.  High tide on orals + decline of compounders = great for both


Summary: Bullish ABVX: expects only a risk/precaution note (not boxed warning) for Obe, making current price a significant bull case.

@Dok__Tok It’s not a boxed warning for Zepbound, it’s a “risk and precautions note, which, IMO is the most likely outcome for $ABVX and at these prices represents a significant bull case.

$LLY Zepbound has a boxed warning for MTC/MEN2 — yet one of the largest blockbusters ever, for losing lbs ..vs simple lifestyle change
Wall St losing its $hit  over few isolated CA signals with $ABVX Obe with unprecedented efficacy in UC - a debilitating disease is peak insanity.


Summary: Strongly bullish ABVX: expects snap back to $150+ (possibly $180) once black box warning fear is dispelled; peak sales potential $8-10B/yr on best-in-class efficacy.

There are going to be case studies written about this initial $ABVX reaction, and (if we can get it) the subsequent rapid snap back ( 🤞🏻 ).

My HEAVILY BIASED opinion is that if the market comes to its senses and realizes this thing is not getting a black box warning we are going to >$150 in no time.

In reality if the “malignancy overhang” can be completely dispelled, there’s no reason we couldn’t see it go back to the brief initial market reaction of ~$180.  Personally I’m already convinced that the malignancy stuff is statistical noise, but let’s see what the company can show the market about these cases and the extra data to convince people.  This could’ve been upfront if they were just ready to explain what they already had, but oh well.

Once this black box warning stuff is put to bed, I can’t emphasize enough that the efficacy results here were at a level I literally didn’t even model for.  Those endoscopic remission rates in particular are at levels I didn’t even think were possible for a single drug to produce.

With a clean label and a hit in crohn’s (which is now much more likely given the *extreme* efficacy in UC), this is an $8-$10B/year peak sales drug...pick your multiple on that…🤷🏻♂

Again, I’m heavily biased and there’s no such thing as a guarantee, but this all seems very clear to me already.  Unfortunately it’s not my opinion that matters!  Let’s see what Mr. Market has in store.


I think $APGE has a legitimate drug that'll get legitimate first line use

Summary: Bullish APGE: drug is legitimate and will get first-line use, though management behavior is questionable.

@TTRAmyloid I actually wouldn’t go that far.  I think $APGE has a legitimate drug that’ll get legitimate first line use.

To me that really begs the question - why are they choosing to behave like a shitco with BS like writing off sarcoma and conjunctivitis while playing up ISRs?

@A_May_MD I have said repeatedly I don’t know why this company exists


Summary: Both LLY and NVO should rise as oral weight-loss drugs dramatically expand the market.

@DickMedChem @bioinvestor24 I think they’ll both do fine.  I think what we are seeing is the earliest confirmation that the oral weight loss drugs are going to be bigger than we all thought, dramatically expanding the market.  Lilly and Novo should both rise from here, IMO.

@A_May_MD I still don't know how Wegovy pill will fare against orforglipron once the latter comes to the market ( even if @bioinvestor24 claims orforglipron is meh). That's what refrains me from buying more $NVO shares.


I think (and hope) that the end result will be the same - the stock going higher than it was *before* going into the "crash"

Summary: Long ABVX; flash crash driven by uninformed sellers exiting, expects recovery to exceed pre-crash levels as specialists accumulate.

I totally forgot about this until someone mentioned it to me this morning, but this absolutely encapsulates (and helps explain) the insanity of the giant $ABVX dip we saw (and are still seeing).  It also fits right in line with the “pod shop” commentary theme of this morning.

Who remembers that~$110 to -$95 flash crash after hours that $ABVX had a few weeks ago?

That very brief crash & rebound was due to a headline derived from a simple clinical trial protocol modification made to the phase 2 trial that was already had data from over half a decade ago!  All they did was extend the length of the trial so that people getting drug on the open label extension could *keep* getting the drug.

Basic upkeep that triggered a 10 figure drop in the company’s valuation for absolutely no legitimate reason.

To me it seems that this prior event was a microcosm of what we saw Monday & Tuesday.  It showed that clearly there are (perhaps now *were*) people involved in this name that don’t understand the very most basic fundamentals of this space.

The prior “flash crash” was quite literally absolutely *nothing*, so of course it corrected quickly.  In the current situation there’s obviously a larger impact dataset, more nuance in its interpretation, and the complication of the fact that management made a huge mistake in the way it was all presented/communicated.

The current “recovery” from the crash thus takes more time, as we are seeing.  But, I think (and hope) that the end result will be the same - the stock going higher than it was *before* going into the “crash”.

In retrospect this previous ridiculous flash crash should have perhaps tipped  me off that some of the “money” in $ABVX had no idea what they were doing.

What I’ve seen with the ridiculous crash this week leaves no room for doubt about that in my mind…but now I think we can safely say they *were* in the stock instead of “are”.

Like I previously said here - what we are witnessing is a transfer of wealth to the specialists who actually know what they’re doing.

As a long I can’t say that it’s been fun to witness, but at this point I at least feel like I’m getting a better grasp on what has transpired her as well as the increasing probability of what I hope is to come!

Anyone wondering what that >10% flash crash was for $ABVX at close?  Bloomberg published a blurb saying that their P2 ulcerative colitis trial has been delayed by 2+ years.

The issue?  That trial already read out 4 years ago 🤣

Clearly spooked someone who spooked some algos https://t.co/s8rGsxUqdQ


The $ABVX "cancer scare" days are numbered, IMO.

Summary: Bullish ABVX; believes the safety overhang around cancer concerns is fading.

Incredibly good work here.  Well worth the time it takes to read - very very rare that you can get free access to work of this caliber.

The $ABVX “cancer scare” days are numbered, IMO.

Based on our conversations with the buy side and sell side, one thing is clear: the market is still struggling to define the actual safety bar for $ABVX.

Specifically: how many non-NMSC events would ABTECT Maintenance Part 2 need to show before FDA reviewers or sophisticated https://t.co/szvprb4nhy


It's only mispriced by 50-80% this time! The market consistently gets this 'do the work on your own' stuff wrong until a press release and company presentation crams the truth down its throat.

Summary: Bullish ABVX; author argues market is currently mispricing it by 50-80% to the downside, expects upward re-rating on upcoming catalyst.

The market mispriced $ABVX by >1,000% going into the induction readout with existing data almost mathematically proving it was going to hit.

It’s only mispriced by 50-80% this time!  The market consistently gets this “do the work on your own” stuff wrong until a press release and company presentation crams the truth down its throat.

I’ve seen this movie before!

@deathtouch2k My bird brain understands based on a few tweets by some people on X, why is the market having so much trouble with it?  It's not that deep, feels like they are way overcomplicating it because it's a new MoA.


$ABVX has the BEST IN DISEASE efficacy in maintenance. Obefazimod is the ONLY drug in its class, and its maintenance efficacy is BEST IN DISEASE.

Summary: Bullish ABVX: obefazimod has best-in-disease maintenance efficacy as sole drug in its class, endorsing compelling UC profile.

Finally, the first time I’ve seen someone get it right.  $ABVX has the BEST IN DISEASE efficacy in maintenance.  Not “best in class” (as I’ve seen repeatedly).

Obefazimod is the ONLY drug in its class, and its maintenance efficacy is BEST IN DISEASE.

Two very important points/distinctions.

$ABVX LR 6/15  continue to believe totality of ABTECT supports a compelling
profile for obefazimod in UC, driven by best-in-disease efficacy and a safety profile that remains
commercially competitive. The new case-level safety details should help mitigate some of the
initial


Summary: Expects XBI to pull back sharply from today's $141.81 high.

Should I get a lobotomy to improve stock market alpha?

---

Frontal lobe is telling me it’s time for $XBI to pull back sharply ($141.81 high today).  Let’s see what old fronty is good for.  His life is on the line.


Summary: Bearish NTLA: immune response against neoepitopes threatens the entire platform, not just a single program.

@Biotech_FC It’s immune response against neoepitopes imo, not the LNP.  Will be a problem for their whole platform I believe.

Not good for $NTLA. No wonder they tried to initially blame the target and not the LNP. https://t.co/2k2hgwwITE


Summary: Bullish ABVX as undervalued vs SYRE despite superior post-P3 MoA; bearish SYRE as overvalued relative to pipeline maturity.

Yeah $ABVX is $200 right now if their PR strategy was half as aggressive as $SYRE.

And hey look, they’re roughly the same market cap except ABVX is fully post P3  with a unique MoA with unmatchable maintenance efficacy while SYRE is 6-8 years behind with a few me-twenty drugs!

Funny how that works

@A_May_MD I'm mad because this type of PR from ABVX would have been earth shattering and completely acceptable to do.


Summary: Expects buyout above $180 given blowout efficacy and clean label; $180 now a disappointment.

@BigChodu With the new blowout efficacy and a clean label (no black box, let’s see how Part 2 looks), $180 would actually be a bit of a disappointment from my perspective.

@A_May_MD Dr @A_May_MD

You were expecting buyout at North of 180$

Still you expect the same, or reset of expectations?


this will remain an existential risk to the HAE launch. A single Hy's case and it's over.

Summary: Bearish NTLA: undisclosed liver enzyme signal mirrors ATTR program pattern; a single Hy's Law case could kill the HAE launch, posing existential risk.

Of course there is a difference.  The point is that the $NTLA ATTR program was seeing exactly this pattern at a similar (small) sample size, and only once we had ~450 patients (~7x what we have in this HAE publication) did we finally see a Hy’s Law case.

You choosing to ignore a consistent liver enzyme signal from $NTLA won’t make it go away, and this will remain an existential risk to the HAE launch.  A single Hy’s case and it’s over.  Again, you blindly choosing to ignore this doesn’t make it untrue.

There’s a reason management never disclosed these liver enzyme numbers until they absolutely had  in this NEJM publication, BTW…

@A_May_MD Tjere is a big difference between generic liver enzyme elevations emerging in first days following LNP admin, and the much rare, product-specific elevations 3-4 weeks later. Give it up already. You're over your skis here.


Not a black box threat even if you think it's real, and thats all that really matters to the stock right now

Summary: Bullish ABVX: NMSC signal unlikely to result in black box warning, which is the only thing that matters for the stock.

I’m not aware of any drug that confers NMSC risk via sub clinical photoxocoty…none.  Not that I know everything, but as a dermatologist I do have a decent grip on these things.  NMSC risk tends to come from BLATANT photo toxicity, or immunosuppression, very clearly neither happening here.

Even still, is 4 vs 1 really a meaningful signal?  Especially in the context of the cases that had *prior* NMSC already, and or exposure to drugs with known NMSC risk?

Regardless, it’s something that doesn’t merit too much disproportionate attention/debate.  The FDA as a near unanimous rule does not hand out black boxes for NMSC.  Black box or no is really the question that matters for ABVX as a stock.  Entyvio as the king of IBD has non-NMSC warnings on label…

So while my read on the data is that there’s very likely no NMSC signal here, I’m not sure the NMSC part of this is really worth debating too intensely.  Not a black box threat even if you think it’s real, and thats all that really matters to the stock right now.

@A_May_MD @deathtouch2k Appreciate the pushback - and you're right on the placebo arm. Our back-calc from the disclosed headache IRs, the PY gap is ~1.5x (≈142 vs ≈92 PY), not 2x. PY-adjusted that's 50mg 2.82 vs PBO 1.09 /100P -narrower than 4-vs-1, but not balanced.

But the comparison we'd actually


Summary: Bearish SYRE: calls it absurdly overvalued financial engineering on weak open-label P2a data that fails to clear blinded clinical benchmarks set by Phase 3 rivals with same MOA.

$SYRE out here trying to pump another P2a OPEN LABEL dataset that doesn’t even hurdle the BLINDED clinical remission benchmark set by other drugs with the SAME MOA that are already in PHASE 3.

JOKE.  Absurdly overvalued financial engineering pump job.  Whoever starts off the house of cards selling cascade wins.  You just won’t get to participate in the #FREEMONEYCLUB’s next intentionally underpriced backdoor IPO!

Such transparent bullshit.


Summary: Strong long ABVX: cancer signal is noise, existing event rates within expectations, stock is a steal with path back toward $200 once Part 2 data confirms safety.

🚨$ABVX just quietly dropped new slides again!

Aside from showing a much better/clearer discussion of data/expectations and a clear goal to handhold the market with the upcoming part 2 dataset, these slides give us another key insight:  $ABVX is finding the same expected background nNMSC/NMSC rates as @deathtouch2k and I have discussed.

nNMSC/100PY expected range:  0.3-0.7
      ↪Obe's rate so far:  ~0.59

NMSC/100PY expected range:  0.7-1.4
      ↪Obe's rate so far: ~0.79

And those are just for the 50mg doses...the Obe rates get further diluted massively if you were to include the 25mg dose levels, suggesting that the overall population is likely on the low end of expected cancer incidence.  (Note the the calculations can change slightly once we get exact numbers of PY of exposure).

So, even just looking at the 50mg dosing patient years, and not including the Part 2 data that might further reinforce safety, $ABVX is getting the word out that their EXISTING cancer event rates are ALREADY well within EXPECTATIONS...the market is clearly waiting for the Part 2 data before coming to this conclusion...but I personally don't see why we need to wait.  These data are very clear.

I continue to see no evidence of a "cancer signal" here, and I find the double digit stock price to be an absolute STEAL.  $ABVX would very likely (IMO) have at least temporarily cracked $200/share on their absolutely unprecedented maintenance update without this (bogus?) "cancer scare".

Those of us in the weeds have been able to see that the "cancer scare" was noise from the beginning...the company of course will be slower in reaching the market to get that word out and make people understand it, but IMO that's where we are heading.  I would predict that stock price will follow!

---

These new $ABVX slides come from an entirely new presentation called "ABTECT Maintenance Part 2 Primer".

Clearly management is going to be doing a much better job of presenting the new data within the appropriate context to show a jumpy market how to appropriately interpret safety data.

This whole mess (and resultingly depressed stock price) could have probably been avoided if they'd done this from the start, but in the end I think the final result (and much healthier stock price) will still be the same.

This time in between where we find ourselves now is what I'd call "opportunity".

---

The new $ABVX slides:
https://t.co/7QV2jneiIU