Summary: Long LLY via Nov 21 $700 call options at $25.50.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

This one's not for the faint of heart:

$LLY 11/21 700c $25.50


Summary: Long-term AAPL holder; views it as a low-downside dividend payer with moat, not a high-growth tech stock.

For me, the only 2 interesting things about $AAPL are:

1)  The obscene amount of money they have in the bank and
2)  Their dedicated installed user base

They don't innovate.  Their eye for style isn't there anymore. They have no ideas.

But they can essentially buy their way into any market they want (except semiconductors), are recession immune because of their moat, and they have a customer base that, no matter how much that customer base talks about how boring the products have become, will still dutifully line up and buy every one of them.

I've held $AAPL for...25 years now?  I acquired most of my position in 2009.  But I view it as a retail services company that pays me a bit of a dividend and doesn't have much downside, not as a tech stock that's going to appreciate at big percentages.

@BonkDaCarnivore Bonk, on a long time frame investment standpoint what’s your personal thoughts on $AAPL? I ask bc I can’t stand the direction Tim Cuck is taking the company. iPhone was the 1st phone I ever had and will be the last. I love Apple products. But w that said I can’t stand Tim when


Summary: Long GOOGL via 9/19 $190 calls, entry $6.65.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

$GOOGL 9/19 190c $7.10

I wanted to call this out in the Diner when it was near the lows, but there was a dude caping for child rape, so...

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(For accounting purposes, my entry was $6.65)


Summary: Bearish WHR: tariff headwinds plus credit-constrained consumer spell trouble for Whirlpool.

Tariffs + a tapped out consumer with no access to credit = a bad time for $WHR.  The Golden Age https://t.co/8XShORHxlJ


Summary: Long AMZN into Prime Day despite tariff uncertainty; bearish TSLA on Musk political distraction and retail selling pressure.

Weekly market analysis:

So I'm traveling abroad at the moment on a short trip, don't really feel like writing something terribly in depth.  Here are the Cliff's Notes:

-There are no interesting earnings for the week, though I have been known to play a little $WDFC from time to time.

-The TACO trade is back, w/ the administration admitting that not only did 200 countries not reach out to beg for deals, but that, in actuality, the number of countries who cared enough to even inquire about negotiating with the US could be less than 5.  But don't worry, he's gonna send strongly worded letters to all the countries laughing at us.  Also, he's threatening 70% tariffs in August, so he's pushing back the date yet again...expect this to be a running theme, but it will create market uncertainty as people try to figure out how much of a chicken he'll be.

-This would normally be a layup week to play $AMZN long, as it tends to do well during the Prime Day period.  Tariffs make that a little uncertain.  I'd still say play long, but size accordingly

- $TSLA might be well and truly fucked. Elmo once again getting distracted by politics, which the market hates.  Also, now all the Magadoltians are going to sell their collective 4 shares bought with stolen copper wire money, so expect pressure from that :P.

-On the upside, geopolitical unrest seems to be settling down.  And the government revealed it's not going to reveal any other world leaders as pedophiles, so...some of you voted for that.

-We're not coming back till Tuesday, so probably no trades for the next 2 days.


Summary: Bullish INTC via 1/16/26 25c calls, flagging the position is now up and passing the baton to followers.

Meant to call this out yesterday, but, you know....retards.

$INTC 1/16/26 25c $2.68.

If not for having to spend 3 hours talking to my champion and...let's just say another individual entering the fray...you'd already be up 20%.

Blame drunks.


Summary: Still holding GOOGL 9/19 185c calls as a live long; trimming first position but running remainder into expiry.

$9.40.  Go ahead and take a first trim here UNLESS you're ALSO in the $GOOGL trade I just called out a little bit ago.  If that's the case, take this one all the way down to runners.

68%.  I just can't get this scamming thing right.

$GOOGL 9/19 185c.  I paid $5.60 but was managing another trade and didn't care enough about you to call this out in real time.  You're gonna pay $6.65 here, and it's still going to be a bargain for you.


Summary: Bullish XOM via 7/18 $115 calls at $2.60 and CVX via 7/18 $150 calls at attractive premium.

$XOM 7/18 115c $2.60

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For those who want to double dip, the $CVX 150's for the same day are at a really attractive premium.


the $CVX 150's for the same day are at a really attractive premium


Summary: BA expected bright green; consider adding AAPL; SOXL swing up 10x, suggests rolling to $25 strikes expiring November.

Market analysis for the week:

I've always considered this week (when we cross over from June into July) one of reflection.  This officially marks the halfway point of the year, and one should really evaluate how they performed in the 1st half to make adjustments for the 2nd.

In the case of if you've just been doing the TotD's...well, you've done INCREDIBLY well for the first half.  As a matter of fact, you've outperformed every hedge fund, private equity group, investment bank, and notable whale in the entire world.  The. Entire. World.  And you've certainly outperformed every person on this site trying to sell something.  You navigated the early year ascent, you navigated the chop leading to liberation day without a scratch, you navigated the bear market all the way to the bottom, and you rode the wave back up with impeccable timing and only a minimum of corrective action needed.

Congratulations?  We'll pretend we don't know how you got there :P.

What you need to know about this week is this:  Monday not only marks the end of the 2nd quarter, but a HUGE number of investment banks and funds end their fiscal year in June, which means that Monday not only represents the usual EOQ, but also an immense amount of activity to clear the books for the end of their fiscal calendar and position themselves for their FY26 calendar.  That makes Monday essentially a day in which day traders should treat most plays as 0D options.  Which means, if you're risk averse, you should either play lightly or not play at all.

This is also a short week, with the markets closed on Friday for July 4th.  Realistically, you can expect all the trading desks to essentially close up early on Thursday so they can make their way to the Hamptons or Nantucket or Cape Cod for the weekend.

So - you have a whacky day on Monday, a short day on Thursday, and no trading on Friday.  What does that tell you?  Bueller?  Bueller?

For me, this week represents a bookkeeping period - I go through and evaluate all my longer positions, make sure my logs are accurate, identify the sectors that I did best in and those that I was a little more spotty.  Most importantly, the last trading day of June represents the day in which I secure bags of cash and transfer them over to my managed wealth portfolios for long-term deployment.  Think of it as a reset of sorts. I also have to plan for the taxman, but I'm an outlier - very few of you have that consideration.

So, if I may offer a suggestion, O Bonk Davidians (as I am told we are now known by the midwits who are closing out their H1 in the red):  At some point this week, I want you to take some profits.  I want you to lock in some of the wealth you've created in the 1st half of the year.  You should put it somewhere where you can enjoy the fruits of your labors.  Buy yourself something nice, pay off some debt, plan a vacation...do something with it so you remember what it is you did all this for. You had an AMAZING 1st half of the year if you've been adopting my style, you should reward yourself for it.  Pick some positions you have that are solidly green, and go ahead and do something that interests Uncle Sam.  After all, it's patriotic going into Independence Day.  Also reflect on what worked and didn't work for you BEYOND the TotD's, since very few of you were JUST doing those.  If you're going to play this week, play for fun - remember, you're WELL ahead of everybody else around you, let them struggle in the pits trying to salvage their half.

On the TotD front, that $BA play is going to be bright green.  Manage your risk appropriately.  Evaluate what you think of $AAPL, maybe add to it.  The $SOXL swing from The Diner has appreciated by more than 10x, but the expiration of the contracts is in August.  Think about either taking your money - maybe take some of those profits and move them out to $25 strikes for late in the year.  November is a sweet spot.

Geopolitically, the Middle East situation seems to be calming down a bit, but is always something to keep an eye on.  Trump closed out Friday by attacking Canada, but cucks that they are, they appear to be trying to be the adult in the room rather than piss him off, but who knows how that will go.  The 90 day pause is coming up real fast, and it's about to become something everything starts thinking about again.  The Beautifully Bloated Bill is going to piss off the bond markets.  And we've got NFP - usually on Friday, but because of the holiday, it will be on Thursday, further elevating the risk factor of the close of week.

TL:DR:  Kick back, relax, give yourself a pat on the back.  You did good.  You're certainly in a better position than the people who brag about how they're broke as fuck and afraid to enter the markets because Big Bad Bonk is there.

Also, congratulations on making it this far without getting yeeted!  I didn't think it was that big of an accomplishment, but I'm positively shocked by the number of people who are so self-destructive and incapable of not being their own worst enemy that they've screwed themselves over for no reason.


Evaluate what you think of $AAPL, maybe add to it


Summary: Long CRM via 9/19 280 calls at $8.50.


$PANW should be way over this right now... it's not trading at 204 right now. Anyhow, manage appropriately.

Summary: Bullish PANW; stock should be at $204+ but suppressed by Nir Zuk retirement news; manage calls accordingly.

$12.30.

$PANW should be way over this right now, blame Nir Zuk for retiring yesterday, which is the only reason it's not trading at 204 right now.  Anyhow, manage appropriately.


$AAPL diverged HEAVILY from the market on Friday, and historically does very well leading into July... I did, in fact, average down on that trade personally on Friday... $AAPL told me on Friday that everything's probably gonna be alright

Summary: Holding and averaged down on long AAPL options position; confident thesis intact as stock diverges positively and historically outperforms into July.

99% sure I've talked about this in #Bonkiversity, I know I've talked about it in other Open Office Hours, but one of the things people should do if they want to hit for high average on trades is buy more time than you need.  Because when trading, 1 of 3 conditions are going to occur:

1)  Your thesis was correct, but your timing was too early.  Without time, you can't succeed
2)  Your thesis was correct, and everything works out without a sweat or
3)  Your thesis was incorrect

That means you always have a 2/3 shot to be on the wrong end of a trade initially.  The clip below has a question in my last Open Office Hour regarding the $AAPL trade.  While I did misspeak one time (I should not have said "I was hoping to not still be in this trade" but rather should have been more clear in that "I was hoping the trade would be free by now"), it talks about the need for time.

Not coincidentally, $AAPL diverged HEAVILY from the market on Friday, and historically does very well leading into July.  While I did, in fact, average down on that trade personally on Friday, I didn't feel there was a need to for a broader conviction of the trade - it was just something I wanted to do, and it did come with a degree of additional risk.

With the additional time, comes less worry.  It's starting to look like my trade was a condition 1.  And yes, when you buy more time than you need, it requires an additional outflow of capital initially, and your movement isn't as drastic as the person who plays weeklies (they might get 300%, and you'll get 45), but they're gonna lose WAY more.  Again, I wanna be Tony Gwynn and hit for average, not Adam Dunn.

Anyhow, as I said at about the 1:50 mark...not concerned.  And $AAPL told me on Friday that everything's probably gonna be alright.


Summary: Bearish BTC at $105K; historical pattern of falling below 50 EMA always leads to a big drop, sarcasm mocking 'this time it's different'.

The retards sent a crypto ho to ask a poorly worded, dumb question not related to economics a few days ago.  She then asked whether I was bullish or bearish.  I said bearish because and she laughed.

Bitcoin was at $105,000 when she asked that, btw. https://t.co/2H3JdaplG3

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For those not retarded, literally every time in Bitcoin's history it's fallen below the 50 EMA, it's taken a big hit.

But ThIs TiMe ItS dIfFeReNt!


$GOOGL 9/19 185c. You're gonna pay $6.65 here, and it's still going to be a bargain for you.

Summary: Long GOOGL via 9/19 $185 calls; author paid $5.60, expects continued upside and calls $6.65 a bargain.

$GOOGL 9/19 185c.  I paid $5.60 but was managing another trade and didn't care enough about you to call this out in real time.  You're gonna pay $6.65 here, and it's still going to be a bargain for you.


Summary: Bullish LLY via Nov 21 700c; expects a ~400% return on the call options position.

So you wanna know a little secret here?  Yeah, this thing has just been a straight line up since I called it, but did any of you ask why I picked November if I was just gonna start talking about it a day later? I mean, that's super weird, right?

Maybe I think it can be a 400%er https://t.co/SwwL2qC6px

This one's not for the faint of heart:

$LLY 11/21 700c $25.50


Summary: Long SNOW via 9/19 210c; was at $220 five days ago, implying upside return to that level within the month.

$9.50.  You know what to do.

But remember you have a month and this thing was trading at $220 like 5 days ago.

$SNOW 9/19 210c $8.15

(I'm doing something different for the majority of my position, but it's very expensive; this is the budget option)


Summary: Bearish PLTR: retail-heavy shareholder base of small holders signals weak fundamental support.

The takeaway:  $PLTR is held up by guys who have to work at a coffee shop, and even up 500%, they still have to work at a coffee shop.

Foundation built on sand.

so im at my local bagel shop

i paid for the bagel with the $HOOD gold card

cashier recognizes it’s Robinhood and asks me if I invest in the stock market

i said yes and asked him if he does

he says “yeah, my biggest holding is a company named Palantir”

he then goes on to show


most overpriced stock on the market… trading at 1250x forward earnings… just....HAVE DOLLARS rather than pay 1200+ times forward earnings

Summary: Both CRCL and PLTR called the most overpriced stocks on the market; CRCL trades at 1250x forward earnings on stablecoin/treasury revenues, PLTR still tops the list.

We have a new title holder for "most overpriced stock on the market":  $CRCL

This is a company where 99% of its revenues came from TREASURIES at 4.x% last year trading at 1250x forward earnings

For those who don't know, $CRCL's only product is a stablecoin tied to the USD.  So just....HAVE DOLLARS rather than pay 1200+ times forward earnings.  People are legit paying over 100% IV on a stablecoin that makes its money on bonds.

Make it make sense.

Oh, and just kidding, $PLTR is still the most overpriced stock on the market, but this one is closing in fast.


Summary: Buy ELF shares on the dip using put profits.

industry='Household & Personal Products'

For those of you who weren't smoking crack and somehow thought this image was bullish, no matter what put you took as long as you weren't dumb with how far down it was, you're up between 55 and 80%.

You should take it. And buy $ELF shares on the dip w/ your gains.


Summary: Long GOOGL into earnings; semi sector profit-taking likely; TSLA brand/sales toxic; dividend yield inflows to continue.

Market analysis for the week:

Headline:  I would bet money the $GOOGL TotD calls are going to be WELL in the money Monday morning.  Manage your risk appropriately

This week should be a fairly volatile one.  If you're trading it, make a point to stay agile, because a lot of things are coming together at once.

In spite of July seasonally being a bullish month, we're finally starting to see some real cracks in the price action.  Whether it's sanity at people realizing everything is wildly overpriced or simply them running out of cash to pump into the market, the tea leaves certainly seem to indicate a bumper 2nd half of the month.

To start with earnings, since that's the lead, there are an enormous amount of notable reports coming this week.  $CLF kicks off the week with life in a steel tariffed world before the bell on Monday.  Normally boring $GM talks about the effects of tariffs on their sales before the bell on Tuesday, $TXN has what should be a layup on Tuesday, but they've never met a bar they couldn't trip over.

Wednesday is where things get spicy.  We already know $TSLA's sales numbers are going to be terrible - the brand is crazy toxic these days, but it seems the worse the numbers are, the more people want to pile into it.  $GOOGL has been stuck in neutral for like 2 years now, but seems to finally be breaking out of its malaise.  Lot of good trendlines here and the smart money seems to be piling in.  If they can (for once) narrate a cohesive AI strategy, they might be the week's darling.  $ORLY closes it out for the day with a state of how heavily consumers are repairing their vehicles rather than buying new.  The sleeper in all this?  $GEV.  I'll be reading that one top to bottom.

Politically, it seems TACO has settled on 10% as the tariff level for almost everybody, with notable exceptions for the Euro zone (which he'll chicken out on) and our neighbors - one of whom will probably try to mollify him again.  Globally, tensions seem to be cooler (if only by comparison), and money continues to flow from the US to "not the US", further hamstringing the dollar.  Powell lines up for testimony on Tuesday, which is always good for a lot of volatility and nothing else.

Normally for data I'd highlight the PMI reports coming later in the week - most notably services, but PMI has been way off for months now, so the market will probably shrug it off.

Tapewise, you're starting to see inflows of money into dividend yield stocks - expect that trend to continue as inflation data continues to remain bad and it starts to become dangerous to simply sit on cash for too long.  You'd get getting ahead of the curve a bit if you went that direction.

The semiconductor sector has been absolutely on FIRE lately, led by the usual suspects.  You'd almost have to expect some profit taking in the coming days on those names.

All in all, this week presents an interesting opportunity for the short-term trader, but I suspect you're going to have to be fairly nimble to navigate it successfully.  It might be wise to play with less size on the probability that, in spite of the volatility, the week will end roughly equidistant to where it is today most retail traders aren't going to be able to ride those waves successfully.


we already know $TSLA's sales numbers are going to be terrible - the brand is crazy toxic these days


you're starting to see inflows of money into dividend yield stocks - expect that trend to continue

Dividend yield stocks proxied by VYM ETF


Summary: Bullish CRWD via call options targeting $500 strike by September/August expiry.

$CRWD 9/19 500c $20

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If this is too expensive, the 8/15 500's for $4.83 are a cheaper option with higher risk.


Summary: Long LLY via 11/21 700c; expects calls to double from $50 to $200 by Thanksgiving.

$50

My trade is free.  No more updates.  Other than when I flex on you all just before Thanksgiving to say they're worth $200


Summary: Still holds a partial long position in PANW via 9/19 175c; believes it has further upside despite trimming half.

I took half of my broader position - for you this means $9.20 on this play.  Honestly I was hoping for more by this point, and I still think it's got legs, but I want to limit risk.

Sorry to those of you I scammed into making money again.  And not sorry to those of you who had spent the last week thinking you finally got to see me take an L.


Summary: Long CAVA via 9/19 90c; confident upcoming results will beat expectations.

This one's green again. Entry yesterday was sub-optimal, though I suspected that was going to be the case.  Wasn't going to be able to sit around watching for it to dip though (was doing July 4th prep) and my longer thesis on it was as such to where I'd rather spend a day upside down on it than miss the trade entirely.

I think everybody is going to be pleasantly surprised with the results on this one.


Summary: Long INTC Jan 2026 $25 calls at $2.39 entry; live position callout with entry price disclosure.

Meant to call this out yesterday, but, you know....retards.

$INTC 1/16/26 25c $2.68.

If not for having to spend 3 hours talking to my champion and...let's just say another individual entering the fray...you'd already be up 20%.

Blame drunks.

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Ppl need to be aware that this is going to be one of those trades where my entry isn't the same as yours, so I might view the state of it slightly different.  My entry was actually 2.39 on this particular strike, not 2.68.  Hopefully it doesn't matter, but there have been instances in the past where how I've managed a trade has materially been different due to a disconnect between callout price and my own.


Summary: Bought large position in PANW 9/19 $175 calls; bullish into expiry.

Bought a fuck ton of 175 contracts.  I would like to thank the Stock Gods for their generous offering to me on this blessed day https://t.co/wUMXv1Zhlq


Summary: Short BTC: crossing below EMA 50 signals further downside, consistent with historical pattern.

Rando:  How do you store your bitcoin?

Me:  On drives.

Rando: But what method do you use?

Me:  Why would I care about that?  I have nerds that take care of that shit for me.  This is an economic space

Rando:  Do you use the special Swiss vault?

Me:  I use safe deposit boxes, I don't know or care about any special Swiss vault.  This isn't a crypto space, I never run crypto spaces, I don't care about crypto other than I hold it.  Would you care to talk about crypto technicals?  Cause the chart says it's going down.

Rando:  But I'm bullish

Me:  OK, be bullish.  The chart says you're wrong

Rando:  Wanna bet 5 bitcoins?

Me:  I don't even know you or if you have 5, and I don't trade Bitcoins except for scale.  No, I'm just telling you what the chart says.

Rando:  "Hahaha murdered him"

Whatever helps you sleep at night, sweetheart.

As always, the worst thing about crypto is crypto bros (and crypto hos)

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Oh, and for those who aren't retarded, once it crosses under the EMA 50, it's look out below.

Which has happened every time this pattern has formed before.

But crypto bros and crypto hos will tell you "this time it's different".  They don't know why - it just is. https://t.co/8nDsnFqtXy


Summary: Long BA commons and options; adding to existing exposure with Sept 220c as the thesis apex.

$BA 9/19 220c $9

Me personally, I'm making this a commons trade and grabbed the option for tracking purposes because I've got a weird collection of calls already, but Sept best represents the apex of my add thesis today. Already have a lot of $BA exposure.


Summary: Instructs taking option profits and buying GOOGL shares outright to own forever; bullish long-term stance on GOOGL.

$12.70

Is 79% good enough for you?  It should be.  Were I a wise investor, I would go down to runners here, calculate my profits on this trade, then take 20% of those profits and BUY $GOOGL SHARES.  Congratulations, you now own $GOOGL forever for FREE.

Also, I'm unwinding some of my mid range positions here.

$GOOGL 9/19 180c $7.10

(Disclaimer:  I only bought 5 of these as a tracking measure; my $GOOGL position is...much more complex, but the September 180's best represent the crux of my thesis).


Summary: Long TTD via 10/17 60c calls, adding to lower cost basis and holding for an extended run.

Well, it doesn't get much simpler than that.  $2.30.  I'm taking a small amount here just to lower my cost basis, but I plan on riding this one for a while.

(Full disclosure:  This was not all I bought)


Summary: Opened speculative long MRVL via 9/5 $79 calls at $3.15; explicit gambler's caveat.

Only for those who feel the need for speed.

$MRVL 9/5 79c.  It's at 3.15

Consider this a gambler's proposition in spite of what I just threw into it. Ppl who just do the TotD's for the safety should stay out
You'll see my order hit the flow trackers in a few minutes (they lag)

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https://t.co/3SQud8UaHG


Summary: Long PANW via 9/19 175 calls at $8, with a lower entry at 169.84 for ~$7.50.

$PANW 9/19 175c $8

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If you wanna be an absolute sniper, you could look for an entry at 169.84, which would be about 7.50, but I won't be around to watch it happen.


Summary: Bullish on SPHR citing incredible margins; implicit buy-and-hold endorsement.

@Peasant38532974 The margins are incredible!

@BonkDaCarnivore So you're still a buy and hold on $SPHR?


Summary: Long ALAB via Jan 2026 $200 calls; author affirms bullish thesis is playing out and expects continued upside.

Those $ALAB January 2026 200c's that I'm sure 95% of you thought were dead are well green right now.  I told you at some point this year it was going to catch the big bid again.  Manage your risk appropriately.

@7tbarney7 @Lions_1776 The idea with options is almost never to exercise them.

What this is saying is that if $ALAB Is under $100 (which it was at the time of the original posting), and the January 2026 HIGHEST strike is $200 (that's as far outside the money as you could buy), it's saying that, in the


Summary: NVDA is the only path to win AI; QCOM and AMD can't match even last-gen NVDA performance.

Big problem in your analysis:

You think people can just snap their fingers and come close to the same performance as the world leader.

The entire chip sector is 10 years behind $NVDA. Can't just throw money at that. Companies like $QCOM and $AMD have been trying to keep up for years and can't even match the performance of the last gen $NVDA chips.

Anyone who wants to win the AI race only has one path to get there

So $GOOGL $META $AMZN and $MSFT all are working on AI chips to reduce dependency on $NVDA. $AVGO is a primary partner for most of them. These are the megacaps set to outperform.


Summary: Long TGT (103.98→107.15) and long BBY (71.67→74.79) as near-term setups.

"there's an absolutely AMAZING $TGT long setup that's staring everybody right in the face, and a pretty solid $BBY one."

$TGT:  103.98>107.15
$BBY:  71.67: 74.79

Manage your risks appropriately.  Must have gotten lucky again that somehow I picked two of the ONLY tickers that were worth playing yesterday....from a hangar.  With no charts in front of me.

Weird how that keeps happening.

Market analysis for the DAY (the week will come tomorrow, hopefully).

I have to keep this brief because I'm about to hop over the mountains to Denver to watch Dennis Keys aka Llaves either get arrested or have a warrant issued for his arrest later today.  Thankfully I can do a


Summary: Recommends buying ORCL shares on any pullback to own forever after options gain.

If you listened to The Diner w/ @NHAunleashed and @marybeth5025 and heard the $ORCL 9/19 250c's for $9.15, they're now $19.85.  Go ahead and go to runners with your 117% gain.  Maybe buy some $ORCL shares on a pullback and own $ORCL forever FOR FREE.

Haters in shambles https://t.co/oSVDeRtvJg


Summary: Opened long SNOW via 9/19 210 calls at ~$8.20.

$SNOW 9/19 210c $8.15

(I'm doing something different for the majority of my position, but it's very expensive; this is the budget option)

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For accounting, my small position I opened here to keep an eye on this particular con filled at $8.20, not $8.15.


Summary: PANW long under $200 if acquisition story lands; TGT and BBY both flagged as long setups today.

Market analysis for the DAY (the week will come tomorrow, hopefully).

I have to keep this brief because I'm about to hop over the mountains to Denver to watch Dennis Keys aka Llaves either get arrested or have a warrant issued for his arrest later today.  Thankfully I can do a daily analysis SUPER briefly:

Today is the first day of the Jackson Hole summit.  Expect a bull trap today and play accordingly.  On the earnings front, the only thing that's really notable is $PANW.  If Nikesh can finally craft the proper story for why the $CYBR acquisition is a great thing for Palo and how much revenue it's going to generate, you're gonna miss the last chance to get it under $200 a share.  If he doesn't, you can be a value buyer at $140.

In general, I would suggest most people just not even play the markets today because of the high potential for chaos (esp. w/ Zelenskyy in country).

But if you must, there's an absolutely AMAZING $TGT long setup that's staring everybody right in the face, and a pretty solid $BBY one.  I can't give you a play because I'll be in a courthouse gallery, though.


Summary: Expects BA to rebound, implying aviation incidents at non-Boeing carriers validate Boeing's relative quality.

Bro...how you gonna take off WITH NO FLAPS?

This is why I used to always talk about not flying the Asian carriers back when I still flew commercial.  The planes fly them, not the other way around

And this is why $BA will rebound. https://t.co/6ubQ9Pct2U


Summary: Holds NFLX December long calls, entered during the boycott-driven dip.

Netflix $NFLX was at $1,182 when Con Inc and the Twitter Griftoverse started their "boycott" and taking a victory lap for all the harm they were causing the company

1,189 today.  Great job, guys. Your 500 cancellations totally made a difference in this half trillion company. https://t.co/9vL7sKHLha

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But thank you for giving me a good entry on some December longs.


Summary: Decisive short call on UPST.

I don't know who needs to hear this, but.... $UPST is a short.


Summary: Bullish LULU call; store traffic surging after Amex Platinum $75 quarterly credit added, expects sharp upside.

Any of you seen a Lululemon store since $AXP added the $75 quarterly credit to the plat card?  The lines literally stretch out of the building and around blocks

Women love yoga pants that they can then get upset at when men look at their asses. This one's gonna print hard.$LULU


Summary: Bullish MRVL heading into next week; remaining runners look amazing after DCA turned trade into a winner.

How it started/How it went/How it started again/How it's going aka how @GucciWholesale_ never learns - and why you should never listen to anything his crew says about finance....EVER.

He pulled the same "try to take a victory lap about a trade that was red before it was over" back in June w/ $AAPL (which ran to a 150% profit).  You'd think he'd learn his lesson, but oh no.  He starts by claiming "Target is down 8%", ignoring that the trade in question was an in and out that went for very nice gains, and that $TGT didn't go to $104...it went to $107.15

As for $MRVL, not only did a timely DCA turn that trade into a winner, but it looks absolutely AMAZING going into next week for the runners that are left.

These people don't even know how markets work, yet want you to buy the crap they're selling over the person who has proven it for years without asking for a thing.

TL:DR:  Gucci has an alt that secretly follows me trying to win on the markets, but because he doesn't know how to manage risk, he keeps turning winners into losers.  Because he's a loser.

---

https://t.co/jFpQgdJUMk


Summary: Long JPM in the 30 days post-earnings window; author claims it reliably rises in that period regardless of earnings reaction.

Listeners to The Diner heard me talk about $JPM and how it's a bad stock to play for earnings, but it's a great stock to play for a month after earnings - it's basically always up 30 days after reporting, whether or not they rise or fall on the earnings.

Well, $305 > $322.


Summary: Decisive long call on SNOW, reinforced by noting others went long weeks ago and will profit.

Ahem* as I was saying.  Haters in shambles.

And, just cause I know how much it irritates them and it amuses me to watch them lose their minds when I give him props, @Quinttrades  and his trading pals apparently went long $SNOW weeks ago and will be rolling in dough tomorrow https://t.co/uiunvRTI10

I don't know who needs to hear this, but...

$SNOW is a long

Long as my dong
Long as a Tool song
Long as the list of things Trump got wrong
Long as how much time my haters spend covering their homosexual fantasies by sucking a bong https://t.co/jnvSdUaHgd


Summary: Bearish NFLX: high-beta name hit by flight-to-safety amid government-driven macro uncertainty.

@realannapaulina Or, and hear me out, $NFLX is one of the highest of the high beta names and in a flight to safety thanks to GOVERNMENT INCOMPETENCE, high beta names suffer.

When you try to groom kids: https://t.co/N3HrKLdala


Summary: Doubling down on MRVL short-dated call options, urging others to enter now before expiry.

$3.70

It's now or never if you want to cross the rubicon to filthy gutter gambler or not.

MAKE THE CHOICE.

Only for those who feel the need for speed.

$MRVL 9/5 79c.  It's at 3.15

Consider this a gambler's proposition in spite of what I just threw into it. Ppl who just do the TotD's for the safety should stay out
You'll see my order hit the flow trackers in a few minutes (they lag)


Summary: Still holding LLY 700c position with only a first trim taken; ongoing bullish position.

$60

(I know I said no more updates, but I just really like pointing out how I was literally the only person on this dumpster fire saying to grab it and it's been the best performer in the market)

I haven't sold any more than my first trim.


platinum and PALLADIUM. believe it or not, platinum has actually outpaced gold this year, and Palladium has kept pace. However, both are under the radar trades that feel less crowded and present potentially greater returns than gold

Summary: Long platinum and palladium as less-crowded, higher-return alternatives to gold; also pushes back on macro-top thesis, calling gold underowned not overbought.

Incorrect.

Gold isn't overbought.  Gold is underowned.

THAT SAID.  I talked about this in my last Open Office space (which I *THINK* was recorded over in the @quinttrades community?):

Everybody keys in on gold, but it's had such a massive run that people should start looking at other metal trades.

By that, I don't mean silver.  I've never been a silver bug and don't understand those people.  I'm talking about PLATINUM and PALLADIUM.  believe it or not, platinum has actually outpaced gold this year, and Palladium has kept pace.  However, both are under the radar trades that feel less crowded and present potentially greater returns than gold.

Gold is up 45% on the year, which is WAY better than the markets have performed.  But platinum is up SEVENTY FIVE percent and nobody noticed.

Why is this?  Simple:  when gold prices spike, markets shift to alternative metals, and when gold prices are seen as too high, jewelers (particularly Chinese ones) shift to platinum, which causes a  huge spike in demand.

On a geopolitical level, platinum is super interesting because most of the platinum in the world comes from South Africa, which due to its country's instability is no longer able to meet platinum needs (remember, most platinum is used for industrial applications so demand is always high)

I should also point out cause I know some of you are new here, when I talk about trading metals, I'm talking about trading METALS.  That means going and buying the physical product, not some ETF or metal certificate.  Shares in $GLD or $PALL are NOT owning gold and palladium, for example.  Those are just pieces of paper.  Go to a  coin shop and buy coins and bars and put them in a gun safe.

people lining up to buy physical gold yesterday, when it’s the most expensive form to sell it, at all time high.

we’re extremely close to the macro top. https://t.co/iWUdheBx6h


PLATINUM and PALLADIUM. both are under the radar trades that feel less crowded and present potentially greater returns than gold


Gold isn't overbought. Gold is underowned.


just throwing out absolutely obscene "projections" on earnings with absolutely no evidence to support their claims on gains. Why not a quadrillion? This bubble is glorious

Summary: Sarcastic dismissal of AMD's AI revenue projections as unsupported bubble hype; implied bearish.

Lisa Su and $AMD taking a page out of Larry Ellison and Sam Altman's playbook, just throwing out absolutely obscene "projections" on earnings with absolutely no evidence to support their claims on gains.  Why only 1 trillion?  Why not a quadrillion?  This bubble is glorious https://t.co/87fRjJvOEi


I'm breaking that rule... what I feel is an absolutely ridiculous reaction to a one-time tax expense

Summary: Bought META 720c Jan 2026 calls, viewing the 12% post-earnings drop as an overreaction to a one-time tax expense.

$META 1/16/26 720c $23.50

#Bonkiversity students know I've got a rule about trading equities for a period of time after a violent move based on earnings.

$META down $90 a share, or 12%, on its earnings from last night.  Given I've got some gains from $META scalps earlier this week (called out right here) and what I feel is an absolutely ridiculous reaction to a one-time tax expense, I'm breaking that rule (also, I'm just so busy these days that I'm not interested in bottom sniping)

Probably won't matter if you don't.

It should be noted, however, that hidden in $META's earnings report is the fact that capex has completely eaten opex, as the insatiable hunger for AI spend is reaching breakneck levels - at all of the companies participating in that war.  This does represent a notable risk.


Summary: Bullish CRM near 52-week lows; highlights November as its historically best month.

The markets have really been struggling.  Know what's not struggling?  $CRM

I have no idea what the contract is trading at at the moment you're reading this.  I will simply say 2 things:

1)  $CRM is trading near 52 week lows and
2) Look back 5, 10 years, whatever, and look at $CRM's performance mo:mo; November is THE best month of the year for it.


Summary: Buying AAPL Dec 19 $225 put at $6.20; bearish position into expiry.


Summary: Long CRM via 10/17 260c, taking profit at $11.10 with a bigger move anticipated ahead.

Take $11.10 here.

Yes, this is smaller than the usual return (same with $CELH) but there's a Mr. Miyagi moment coming.  It'll become clear later. https://t.co/2wgdJ5hJq9


Summary: Bullish BA: expects swift rebound to $220 on any tariff concession involving airplane purchases.

Keep your eye on $BA.

I'm leery of calling a specific play here because I think this could be the start of a multi-day reversal on the markets at large, but while you might not snipe a bottom at $200, the rebound to $220 the moment another country gets Trump to TACO on tariffs by promising to buy a couple of airplanes will be swift.


If a big AI company has earnings coming up…the sales rep responds back with…our backlog has increased dramatically this quarter and is only getting worse…That's generally a pretty good sign you can be bullish on earnings

Summary: Bullish Oracle into earnings: channel check via LinkedIn sales rep confirms dramatically growing backlog, implying strong beat.

Oracle Corporation US equity, AI/cloud earnings context

For the record, in case there's someone at least a little intellectually curious (that space was abyssmal with lemmings not wanting to learn, perhaps?):  Just like the ORACLE in this meme, there was no magic involved in this.

No insider information. No special access.

It's really quite simple:  If a big AI company has earnings coming up, and you go to LinkedIn and talk to one of the many, MANY sales reps that have been in your inbox for years trying to push product down your throat, and you open up a conversation with "Hi there, we're in the early stages of planning out an OCI/BMC infrastructure project, but we're moving fast and I'd like to get a quote and some timeline"

...and the sales rep responds back with "I'd love to talk to you, just so you know our backlog has increased dramatically this quarter and is only getting worse.  So without paying a huge premium you aren't going to be able to move quickly, but you should still lock in before it gets worse"?

That's generally a pretty good sign you can be bullish on earnings.

But I guess y'all aren't ready for that conversation.


Summary: Bullish ORCL: cloud/BMC revenue +77%, 5-year outlook doubling, backlog +360% showing demand far outstrips capacity.

As always, you have to look under the hood.  BMC rev up 77% with a 5 year outlook that basically doubles.

Also, there's a 360% increase in backlog, meaning that they can't even build out fast enough.

It's always the details.

When's the last time a large cap stock had a double miss and went up 23%? $ORCL


Summary: META is a long; author notes timing may have been better 20 minutes earlier.

I got distracted by a bull in the Diner and forgot to say this before leaving but, $META is a long.  My guess is this would have sounded better at 7:20 than 7:40, though I don't have the chart in front of me to verify.


Summary: Still holding a 25% position in MRVL call options into earnings today.

EVEN IF YOU DIDN'T DCA and held through it all, you're green here at $3.40.

They report today.  I'm still holding a 25% position on these calls, but I had a DCA, hedged shorts that paid big, etc.

Y'all need to make the decision TODAY per your risk. Choose wisely, western man.


Summary: Bearish TSLA; expects it to collapse under its own weight over time.

@AmKnuckleheaded I'm gonna wait for it to finish its move and then push out on it. It'll collapse on its own weight over time.

@BonkDaCarnivore Did you happen to decide on what you were going to do on $TSLA?


Summary: Bought JPM Dec 19 325 call at $3.80; live position disclosed as proxy for a more complex trade.

$JPM 12/19 325c $3.80

As always, my trade is significantly more complex than a simple contract, but this best represents a one-shot idea for the trade I've assembled.  I literally only bought ONE of these specific contracts to track its progress w/ you.

I've also been unable to post to X for the last 15 minutes due to no signal, so I'm not sure what it is right now.

---

For timestamp purposes, once I got Gemini to work to edit out the order # https://t.co/i6r3kRq5MV


Summary: Long RBRK via Jan 2026 $100 call options at $5.60.

BONUS:  $RBRK 1/16/26 100c $5.60

Thanks to @TheMarketBishop's chat for turning me on to this.


Summary: Holds significant WYNN position; bullish thesis based on Macau revenue dominance, not Vegas exposure.

As many of you know, I hold significant $WYNN assets and have made them my TotD numerous times.  The reason isn't because of the bifurcation between rich and middle class (though that's a very real thing in general, and something @ShannonJoyRadio and I talked about yesterday).

It's because $WYNN makes all of its money in Macau, not Vegas.  Yet another example as to why understanding the structure and the story of an equity is key - something Kobeissi failed at here.

Travel to Las Vegas is down by -2 million people in 2025.

So, why is Wynn Resorts up +42% YTD while Caesars is down -39% YTD?

The blatant reality? There are 2 "economies" in the US:

Rich versus poor, and the gap has never been larger. https://t.co/ZKNmqlbRpJ


Summary: Short MSFT via 10/17 500 puts; expects price to drop to ~490.90 demand zone.

There's a demand zone that's going to form at 490.90 for those of you trying to maximize your returns on this one.


Summary: Endorses AVGO 350c Jan 2026 call position; expects the $30.60-entry option to reach $36, implying continued bullish move in AVGO.

$AVGO 1/16/26 350c $30.60

Opening smallish with some of the gains from the $AVGO puts you clowns thought was so ill advised that turned into millions :P.


Summary: Opening long AVGO call position (1/16/26 350c or 11/21 360c), bullish on AVGO going forward.

$AVGO 1/16/26 350c $30.60

Opening smallish with some of the gains from the $AVGO puts you clowns thought was so ill advised that turned into millions :P.

---

For those for whom $3000 per contract is expensive, you could feasibly do the 11/21 360's for about half the cost, but your risk profile is going to be higher.


Summary: SPY is a short for scalpers.

I don't know who needs to hear this, but $SPY is, for the scalpers, a short.


Summary: Long JPM at $4.75 while market sells off; trimming at $5.40.

Market is blood red? Know what isn't?

Market leader $JPM

Manage risk appropriately at $4.75 here

---

$5.40, I'm taking a trim.


Summary: Soft bullish lean on IBM via Nov $270 calls, though cautions about September monthly opex volatility.

At some point today, having November $IBM 270 calls might not be the worst idea a person could have...but remember this is monthly opex, and September's has a bit of a reputation, so approach every trade today carefully...


Summary: Long CRM via December call options; near 52-week lows + historically strongest month (November) make calls free money.

I have no idea what the contract is trading at at the moment you're reading this.  I will simply say 2 things:

1)  $CRM is trading near 52 week lows and
2) Look back 5, 10 years, whatever, and look at $CRM's performance mo:mo; November is THE best month of the year for it.

December 250's or 260's should be free money.  The 250's (which I took for fun near the close on Friday) closed out the week $14.40.


Summary: Declares SNOW is a long.

I don't know who needs to hear this, but...

$SNOW is a long

Long as my dong
Long as a Tool song
Long as the list of things Trump got wrong
Long as how much time my haters spend covering their homosexual fantasies by sucking a bong https://t.co/jnvSdUaHgd


I am taking some off here at this point but still leaving it open

Summary: Still holds a long PLTR position after partial trim at $19.40; trade remains open.

$PLTR is $19.40.  *I* am taking some off here at this point but still leaving it open.  Remember, I told all of you to just get out with gains but that I personally liked this one for me (for those of you who are incapable of listening)

So here's a weird message from me to you:

I REALLY like this trade.  I think it can go far and I'm staying in.  But I'm going to say take money at $17.40 because the point of this trade isn't the action & I don't wanna babysit it for you.  You'll understand why I did this later


$META currently has an RSI of 9 on the 15 and 5 on the 5. Pod racers, you know what to do.

Summary: Extremely oversold RSI readings on META signal a buy opportunity.


Summary: Rolling NVDA long-call position out to Jan 2027 $250 strike, maintaining bullish stance.

There was a Space the same day (it later became known as "Open Office Hour w/ Bonk") where I talked about 1/26 150 leaps for $19.

Going ahead and starting the lengthy process of rolling my 2026's at $44 to January 2027 250's. 131% and you even got to avoid short-term cap gains

@DimitryNakhla Now do it t he right way, and learn that NVDA is cheaper at $120 than it was at $700 ($70)


Summary: Expects Tesla to work out fine; bullish forward stance.

@MidwestCon7 @bonkthisdick 90? More like 200.  And Tesla is gonna work just fine. But Gucci here has nothing else to live for other than to glom on to the 4 out of about 210 that haven't panned

@bonkthisdick @BonkDaCarnivore And how are his other 90+ trades this year? Losses happen. Move on, weirdo.


Summary: Despite balance sheet concerns, bullish ORCL to $350 by end of year.

@theagenttrades Nothing you said is wrong.

It's still going to be 350 by EOY :P

Oracle’s sitting on a debt time bomb.

Debt-to-equity north of 500%, net debt-to-EBITDA way above every AI peer. Everyone’s busy chasing the narrative, nobody’s looking at the balance sheet.

@BonkDaCarnivore call somebody cause Layton ain’t saving this one!

#ORCL #Markets #AI


Summary: Entered WHR long with significant size; advises followers to take at least some gains by EOD if set up.

This was supposed to go out as a bonus right after the $JPM thing; just noticed it didn't send. Anyhow, I went into this one with some fairly significant size relative to the liquidity of the ticker. Hopefully it's around the same price right now. $WHR https://t.co/Bfp8F920NA

---

Anyone following in this should endeavor to make it a quicker in and out, taking at least some gains by EOD if it's set up that way. The genesis of this trade was literally me looking at an old $WHR washing machine abandoned in the woods all morning and me pulling up the chart just to do something, and liking what I saw.


Summary: NFLX to $1,220 by end of week (or sooner).

I don't know who needs to hear this, but $NFLX is going to $1,220 by EOW.

---

Which is to say, probably by EOD but I always like to give myself wiggle room.


Summary: Bullish short-dated MRVL call options; urges gamblers who sized in to hold on for further upside.

If you followed the plan and DCA'd, you're now VERY SLIGHTLY green on this trade.

If you took this thinking it was a TotD, this is your opportunity to get out without harm.

If you were one of the gamblers who understood this trade was for you....buckle up, baby.


Summary: Buying LULU Nov 21 185 calls at $8.50; bullish options position.


Summary: Long SFIX on secondhand-clothing tailwind; bearish AZO and KMX as consumer-stress indicators ahead of earnings.

Weekly Market Analysis:

Another short one:  Now that there's no food instability report to spook the markets about coming recession, there's no data this week to rattle cages.  Some unemployment (my original said home, sorry that was incorrect) information, but otherwise pretty tame.  Still waiting on retail to figure out that rate cuts are bearish, though you are seeing the large players really establish bigger short positions.

On the earnings front, the only notable ones are $MU after the close on Tuesday and $COST on Thursday.  If you're looking for yet more recessionary indicators, we've got $AZO and $KMX that are going to talk about how tapped t he consumer is.

I've literally never said this before, but $SFIX might shine here.  Secondhand clothes are gonna be big in "the golden age".

All in all, unless we start the long-overdue correct period, expect more range-bound grindy days this week.


Summary: Still bullish CRM for a November seasonal run despite already being up 5% on the day.

So, apparently, at the time this Tweet's turn in the queue came up, $CRM had already run like 5% on the day.

It does change the calculus a little, but the underlying thesis is still a November run.  I can't stress this enough, however:  You're very likely self-managing if you play calls on it. I spend a LOT of time in the wild this time of year.


Summary: Bullish ADBE; holding options position with more upside expected, advising partial profit-take to manage risk.

$22.50.

I think it has a lot more room, but I'm thinking of spending next week on a boat so I'll say take half off to get your cost to 17.5 then make sure the rest doesn't flip to a loser.

$ADBE 11/21 375c $20

(my play is different due to liquidity on the contracts, this is the strike that most closely mirrors it)


Summary: Take 276% gain on INTC calls, roll into shares to hold forever free — decisive long on INTC.

$8.40

Go ahead and take your 276% here and BUY $INTC shares.  You now own $INTC forever for FREE

Meant to call this out yesterday, but, you know....retards.

$INTC 1/16/26 25c $2.68.

If not for having to spend 3 hours talking to my champion and...let's just say another individual entering the fray...you'd already be up 20%.

Blame drunks.


Summary: Pitching SPHR and BE as overlooked names worth paying attention to.

@stocktalkweekly I've been telling people about $SPHR for over a year, and so few have paid attention.

$BE as well.

What's your favorite undiscovered stock that no one is paying attention to?


Summary: Bearish DOCU (to $0), bearish AI/PATH (traps); cautious long CRM on earnings potential, AVGO on strong earnings history, LULU near 52-week lows with sector strength, FIG as a speculative IPO flier.

Market analysis for the week/month:

Labor Day week on the markets in general is one of the softest of the entire year - it typically ranks as the 3rd worst week of the year due to choppy low volume.  The month of September in general is one of the 2 most bearish months of the year.

Now, combine this with the uncertainty over the upcoming rate decision from the Fed, the terrible jobs data that's been coming out left and right, the cracks in the financial sector (13% of credit card accounts are now "seriously delinquent"...I'll talk more about this later today), an overheated market that is at all time highs in spite of large money sitting on the sidelines and it being retail (which is now at record margin) driving the indices upwards, and you have a recipe for a pretty jarring month in general.

Obviously, this Friday we've got non-farm payrolls - what might be the very last time we see these numbers until 2029, as the Trump administration decides that the best way to pretend the numbers aren't terrible and everything isn't falling apart is to simply stop letting people know what the data is.  All other data this week kind of falls secondary to that.

Tuesday, we've got Trump scheduling one of his famously nebulously "2 pm Oval Office announcements", because there's nothing markets love more than uncertainty.  Guesses as to what it is range from 200% tariffs on pharmaceuticals so your grandmother will just go ahead and die already because she's not contributing to the tax pool anymore to some rambling garbage about election integrity to Trump stating that he's dying - but it can't be that as we've been assured by MAGA he's immortal and it's perfectly fine to elect an 80 year old man in poor physical health to a 4 year office term.  You can expect nothing but chop until we find out what the latest "surprise" from "the most transparent administration in history" is.

On the earnings front, it's actually a really interesting week.  $CRM reports after the bell on Wednesday, and it's generally considered a follower of companies like $MDB and $SNOW, both of which went hog wild last week after earnings.  Couple this with the fact that $CRM has been beaten to a pulp this year, and the potential for a BIG shift is lined up for them.  Thursday we've got $AVGO, which always has spectacular earnings, but the chipmakers have been getting punished of late regardless (see also $NVDA, $MRVL).  $LULU is trading near 52 week lows, and female aesthetic plays have been strong this quarter.  Then we have $DOCU, which continues its march to $0.

The wildcard in all this?  $FIG.  They IPO'd very recently to great fanfare and rocketed from $37 to $115 in a matter of minutes...then have fallen every day since.  One would have to think that they scheduled their IPO as such to where their first quarterly report would be a particularly strong one.  Might be worth a flier for you gamblers out there.

The AI names this week - $AI and $PATH both feel like traps to me.

All in all, maybe not a week to bother with, but if you do partake, make sure to stay nimble, as sentiment can change on a dime.


$AVGO, which always has spectacular earnings


$LULU is trading near 52 week lows, and female aesthetic plays have been strong this quarter


Might be worth a flier for you gamblers out there


Summary: Short BYND: loses money on everything it sells, retail failures, debt-hedge shorting, and no path to anything but insolvency.

For those unaware, $BYND loses money on everything it sells.  It's previous attempts to sell in Costco and Kroger failed.  They haven't sold a single "burger" in $WMT yet.

And, contrary to what the absolute morons on FinTwit claim, it wasn't a candidate for a short squeeze - the people are too dumb to realize that $BYND's debt holders HAVE to short the equity in the company in order to hedge against their debt holdings.  Nobody was trying to actively short a company trading at 50 cents - there was no meat on the bone (get it?).

Well, as always, a few got fabulously wealthy on this trade, but most are gonna get left holding the bag and will NEVER recover, because $BYND has no path to anything but insolvency.  Congratulations to the lucky losers, I guess.

Ppl ask why I keep posting here if I'm so overtly denigrating of my fellow community members in the financial space - it's because of shit like this.  People who don't know the first damn thing in how to evaluate a company's fundamentals run around acting like they understand the equity markets and lure unsuspecting and financially illiterate people desperate for a quick buck into ruin.  And the way the algo is written, the scammers are rewarded.  For those unaware, this was exactly the type of shit that was the cause for this past Tuesday's S&S.


Summary: BTC expected to fall below $100,000 imminently.

$BTC about to lose $100,000 https://t.co/rRAaKcvLcw


Summary: Buying puts on CELH with 10/17 expiry at $60 strike, bearish directional bet.


Summary: Expects SPY to keep falling through Friday and Monday, citing trading-desk adage that markets never bottom on a Friday.

Fact check:  China hasn't threatened other countries, they've actively been courting them.  It's only the US that they're implementing these taxes on, owing entirely to the Felon in Chief's aggressive trade stance with them and angering our biggest trade partner.  This is entirely Trump's fault.

BTW, $SPY dropped another $4 after-hours on this Tweet, meaning it's lost $22 today alone, or 3.3%.  And will continue to drop on Friday.  There's an old trading desk saying that markets never bottom on a Friday.  Expect more blood on Monday.


Summary: Bought DELL equity; also watching March 125 calls.

March $DELL 125's, I've no idea the price as I'm on a slope.  I just bought equity for now because it's easier for me


Summary: Re-entering TSLA short at $495, citing weak car sales, robotics lag, and robotaxi hype vs Waymo's expansion.

Couple of days late on this, kept forgetting to give it a slot.

$F writing down almost 20 billion in capex toward EVs.  This isn't a uniquely Ford problem (though I did have one of their Lightnings, and returned it in the 7 day window because it couldn't function as a truck - tried hauling something with it and it had a whopping 52 miles of range, which is ridiculous).  It's more an indictment that EVs are a niche market that have no real path to profitability unless you're a Chinese maker who can get them out cheaply.  They're all too reliant on government subsidies.

And before some of you Elmo fanbois start screaming B-b-b-b-b-b-but TESLA!....Tesla isn't selling any cars, either, without the tax credits.  And yes, on the 1 year anniversary of me shorting $TSLA at 489 and making a huge stack of cash throughout 2025, I'm once again entering a short of this trash ass company at $495.

Congrats on pushing it to all time highs in spite of nobody buying their cars, their robots being 15 years behind other companies, and their robotaxi finally getting a couple of cars in a geofenced area without a safety driver as Waymo launches its 50th city.  I'm sure everybody will be choosing the Tesla taxis based on *checks notes* the cars "looking cooler", cause that's totally a thing /s

Back to Ford, this 20 billion write-down in the same year that Trump cost them over 3 billion in tariffs, that's a big L on the balance sheet - somebody should answer for this.


Summary: MSTR functionally bankrupt as BTC holdings now worth less than its debt; implied bearish on both MSTR and BTC.

I've already talked at length about the scam that is Michael Saylor and $MSTR.  But for those who aren't aware, $MSTR's $BTC holdings are now worth less than $MSTR's debt, meaning the company is functionally bankrupt.


Summary: Bullish NFLX: strong brand, healthy balance sheet, and NFLX equity in the WBD deal likely appreciates well past $30/share by close.

Time for a lesson in economics!  It's so rare I get to do these these days with how upside down everything is.

$NFLX is paying $27.50 for $WBD.  $PSKY was offering $30.  Warner is taking Netflix's lower offer.  People who don't understand economics are crying foul at this, stating Warner is taking the lesser offer to create a "woke monopoly" (whatever the hell that means anymore).

But shareholder value isn't measured in purely the premium paid on an equity to acquire the assets.  It's measured in future returns and the health of the company.

First, let's look at the size of the 2 companies.  Paramount Skydance ("Skydance") has a market cap of 14.75 billion dollars.  Remember this number, it becomes important in a second.  Netflix has a market cap of 425 billion, making $NFLX approximately 29 times bigger than Paramount.

Netflix has an amazing balance sheet with only 14 billion in debt on the books in spite of its MUCH larger size relative to Skydance - which has about 15 billion in debt on its books.  Remember that Skydance's market cap is only 14.75 billion, so they actually owe more in debt than the company is worth.  So right out of the gate, Netflix is, by far, the healthier company.

If WBD had accepted Skydance's bid of $30 per share, all cash, Skydance's debt would have ballooned to almost 90 billion dollars thanks in large part to its acquisition of Paramount (and a bribe to Trump, don't forget that) just a couple of months ago.  The combined worth of Skydance and Warner would only be about 75 billion.  Meaning it would be even more underwater.

So if Warner's goal is to merge with an entity that can protect the Warner brand and the IP it holds rather than sell it off for parts to try and stay afloat, the Skydance offer needed to be dismissed out of hand.

Then we look under the hood.  Again, Skydance was offering $30 all cash (financed by a ton more debt).  $NFLX's offer was a combination of cash ($23.50 a share) and about $4.15 in $NFLX equity, collared to a current depressed share price driven by the recent split of $NFLX shares.  Netflix itself is an incredibly strong brand and almost always one of the best performers on the market.  Meaning that it's entirely probable by the time this deal closes that the value of the $NFLX equity provided in this deal would make the sum total of the deal to Netflix well in excess of $30 per share like Skydance is offering (with no guarantee Skydance would even be able to raise the capital to complete the purchase)

Which brings us to the most important parts:

1)  We already saw this after Skydance acquired Paramount - the first thing they did was implement thousands of layoffs in an effort to trim 3 billion dollars of expenses off the books, because Skydance couldn't afford to keep Paramount fully operational.  If Skydance were to buy Warner, you could expect an exacerbated repeat of that.  Meaning Warner jobs would be heavily on the chopping block.  And

2)  Skydance at that point would be leveraged to the hilt as a result of these 2 studio acquisitions...so where, exactly, are they going to get the capital in order to fund theatrical ventures that these days can run a quarter of a billion dollars?  You think Skydance is going to have the money to create a series of DC superhero movies (the most expensive of all because of all the CGI)?  NOT A CHANCE!  Skydance would have to drastically reduce its portfolio offerings and very likely sell some of the brand IP under the Warner logo just to make ends meet.  In effect, a corporate raidership job where they sold the most valuable assets for parts and then pocketed the money as they saddled $PSKY with an ever growing debt load they'd never be able to repay.  Absolutely ZERO shareholder value in the Skydance offer.

Meanwhile, $NFLX doesn't actually have a lot of its own IP, but certainly has the capital necessary to make a splash in that space.  Further, taking the Netflix offer over Skydance's maintains competition in the space.  Since Skydance already has an enormous amount of studio IP, consolidation of that would be bad for the consumer.  In Netflix's case, that competition is maintained because Netflix is essentially entering into a competitive space it didn't exist in previously.  The number of competitors in the space remains at 3 - Paramount, Warner, and MGM (which Amazon recently acquired).  The Skydance offer is actually the one that drives monopolistic practice, not prevents it.

Back in my VC days, it was incredibly routine for the offer we'd put in for a series/seed round of a startup to not be the most lucrative on paper, but was almost always the best offer for the company in question - because there was more to the offer than simply the check that was being written; it was the support, infrastructure, expertise and guidance that we could offer over the higher dollar offer by a competing firm.  Smart companies almost always took our lower bids over more cash upfront because they knew we were better equipped to guide them through the turbulent waters of growth and see to it that they achieved more value on the other end.  I sometimes talk about a farm tech company that my firm was bidding against JD Vance's firm back in the day.  JD's firm offered more money upfront, but had no support infrastructure.  The company in question ended up taking the offer from Vance's firm over ours, and proceeded to waste away into oblivion because all they got was the cash - they couldn't succeed operationally.  Meanwhile, we went out and found another startup in the same space, and successfully guided it to a healthy offering.  To this day, it's in a much more robust and successful space.  Thankfully for that company, the leaders of the org saw the value beyond just the size of the check.  My history is littered with those stories.

So, dear reader, the TL:DR if you made it this far: Netflix offers fewer job cuts, more growth of the Warner studio, less risk to investors, higher growth potential, stability, and maintains competition that is beneficial to consumers.  Judging offers purely by number is a remedial viewpoint for those who don't understand structure of economy. Using organizational economic foundations, it's demonstrably true that $27.50 is more than $30.

Congratulations to Netflix on the acquisition, and congratulations to the board, employees, and shareholders of Warner Discovery (of which I am one) on making the right choice.

SCOOP: As reported @paramountco @Skydance is now looking to launch a hostile bid for @wbd because it feels its $30 a share all cash offer is actually higher than what @netflix offered in terms of cash, stock and the value of the spinoff of the cable business--sources. story


Summary: Bearish BTC as a fake store of value controlled by bad actors; MSTR is a desperate, cornered proxy with no real business.

Or, and hear me out, he's just cornered.

$MSTR's entire business model is as a proxy holding for $BTC. The company literally does nothing.  His only option is to tell everybody to buy the thing the company trades in and to deploy capital to show conviction in that asset. He's desperate.

This, for the record, highlights the biggest problem with $BTC that I keep talking about and why it will never be a "store of value" or "the future of currency".  It's too centrally controlled by too few individuals. And most of those individuals are terrible people you wouldn't want being able to control the value of your savings.  You really want your wealth being controlled by this con artist who could, at any moment (even now), wipe out 40% of your net worth simply by pushing a market sell button?

Saylor either knows something or he is stupid

- Deploys $2 billion in 14 days
- Keeps telling us to buy
- Posts AI slop every day
- Says he is never selling
- Remains bullish no matter what

What does he know? https://t.co/uhLN7H43dT


Summary: 100% conviction LULU hits $200+ by EOY, with price crossing $200 tomorrow; rolled March calls still in the money.

Remember this guy?

Now this trade went a little sideways.  Got an early trim on it, but then it plummeted.  If you attended one of my Open Office spaces over on the @Quinttrades free Discord, you heard me talk about how I rolled these out to March and that I was still 100% sure it was going to be $200 by EOY.

Well...you're going to wake up tomorrow morning and it's going to be over 200.

Which means you're $15 in the money, with 3 months of time.  People wildly underestimate how important giving every AMEX Plat holder $300 a year in $LULU spend for free is.


Summary: Holds live short via Feb/Mar puts; plans to trim at $420, implying TSLA will fall to that level.

For my fellow EOY $TSLA bears:  Will be trimming the FEBRUARY and part of the March puts once it hits the $420 mental level


Summary: Still bearish BTC from current ~$119K levels; covered some shorts for profit but expects further downside.

"He's bearish on Bitcoin by EOY, HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. He's so dumb"

-The idiots, when BTC was at $119,000

Covered some shorts today, btw - not because it's not going lower from here because it is, but rather solid works deserve payouts. https://t.co/RWh6Ky11j0


Summary: Long AXP on resilient member default rates vs rising defaults at V and MA.

This has apparently become a big problem for most credit cards - it came up as a topic of conversation this holiday season from multiple extended family members.  Clan Bonk seems to mostly be an $AXP contingent (myself included) with a smattering of Cap One ppl, and multiple ppl were complaining that this year they were having immense difficulty getting into Centurion lounges, Delta lounges, etc. and questioning why they were paying $900 a year in AF.

I think these CC companies are in a tough position - loyalty programs (hotels, airlines) keep getting watered down to where status granted by cards don't result in any benefits, providing cardholder value to negate those fees has become more nebulous, and the QoL perks these cards offer for things like executive lounges innately become harder to leverage with user base growth.

The upcoming economic downturn will whittle down the user base some, but the K-shaped nature of the economy overall isn't likely to significantly shift those of us in the upper band.  For most people, taking a good hard look at the amount of "super premium" cards in your wallet is probably just good business.  If you've got more than 2 of them, you're probably struggling to get value overall just because of the overlap in benefits (you only need 1 for Global Entry fees, 1 for Clear if you fly commercial, etc.).

That said, I'm still long $AXP in the card sector because they've shown to be incredibly resilient in their member base's default rates not rising the same way $V and $MA have been.

I pay $795/year for a @Chase Sapphire Reserve card and they won’t let us into the half empty Sapphire Lounge at BOS earlier than 3 hours before our flight (6 hour unplanned layover) for no reasons other than “thems the rules, sorry.” Finally a great reason to cancel.


Summary: Author cites surging platinum, gold, and silver as evidence of real economic stress underlying headline stock market highs; implicitly bullish on precious metals.

12 companies make up all the gains.  The other 58,000?  No bueno.

Look to the massive hikes in platinum, gold, and silver prices this year as proof.

Donald J. Trump Truth Social Post 10:43 AM EST 12/11/25

STOCK MARKET JUST HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH!!! When will the Fake Polls show that I am doing a great job on the Economy, and much more??? Thank you!


Summary: 2026 predictions: long gold to $5700, silver to $100; short BTC to $40Ks, TSLA -30%, US equities corrective; altcoins -50%+.

Predictions for 2026:

-Tariffs cause a 2% drop in actual GDP (but will we see it since this administration fakes the data?)
-Silver crosses $100
-Gold crosses $5,700
-Bitcoin spends time in the $40,000's, most altcoins lose > 50% of value
-A banking panic at some point
-Commercial real estate vacancies climb over 25%
-Stock market is corrective
-$TSLA drops at least 30% over the course of the year
-Foreclosure rates surge
-Unemployment < 6%
-We have a bond market crisis ("crisis") where emergency synthetic liquidity has to be provided to backstop a failed 10 year auction
-Trump continues to do everything he can to not release the Epstein files
-GOP loses House, which will be a blessing to all as it cements lame duck status and stops the chaos that was 2025.


Bitcoin spends time in the $40,000's, most altcoins lose > 50% of value


$TSLA drops at least 30% over the course of the year


Summary: BTC going lower from sub-90K; Kraken IPO timing read as insiders cashing out near the top.

Crypto platform Kraken files for IPO on the heels of $BTC falling below 90K (and FYI, it's going to go lower).

Gotta get that cashout while you still can, I guess.


Summary: Bullishly offers to buy NFLX shares the parent is selling, implying confidence in the stock.

@zgoalman Cool.  I'll buy your shares :P.

It's not like my track record is over 98% or anything, heh.

@BonkDaCarnivore Bottom line is I will be selling my $NFLX for that reason ... I don't think it will be approved and I am not interested in 1 year plus of dead $ ...  i will wait a week or 2 to see if it recovers a bit then vote it off the island


Summary: Author is initiating a short again at current levels, repeating a trade made ~1 year ago.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

@RampCapitalLLC @Mindset4Money_X I shorted it at these levels almost exactly 1 year ago to the day and made more than you could ever dream of.

I'll be doing it again.

@Mindset4Money_X Would you rather be right or make money?


What's the bull thesis for crypto when the crypto bros are going to have to sell their crypto just to survive ... most of the rest of society has no spare earnings sitting around even if they WANTED to get involved in the space

Summary: Bearish crypto: forced selling by holders, no new buyers, no bull thesis for sustained demand.

And SELL he will.  I've talked about this multiple times in the last couple of weeks.  What's the bull thesis for crypto when the crypto bros are going to have to sell their crypto just to survive, especially now that so many of us long time holders used 2025 as a way to lock in gains in huge portions of our positions?  What jobs do crypto bros have?  There are no jobs for crypto bros - crypto bros have no skills.  And most of the rest of society has no spare earnings sitting around even if they WANTED to get involved in the space (which they don't, because they saw in 2025 what a complete scam it is with overt manipulation and fraud)

Welcome to the new reality


Summary: Bearish BTC; historical crash pattern implies 37% decline so far is shallow vs prior cycles, targets $25,200 bottom.

2014:  71% decline
2018:  84% decline
2022:  77% decline
2025:  37% decline

What people should notice is that it's got a LONG ways to go before it finds its next bottom.  Which would be $25,200

In 2014 Bitcoin crashed from $1,100 to $320

In 2018 Bitcoin crashed from $19,700 to $3,200

In 2022 Bitcoin crashed from $69,000 to $15,500

In 2025 Bitcoin crashed from $126,000 to $80,000

What do you notice?


Summary: LLY selloff on drug delay news is overdone; implied bounce from here.

The reaction to $LLY's announcement their new drug would be delayed to Q2 is overdone today.

Just throwing that out there...


Summary: Short TSLA: Optimus is a fraud, no autonomous capability, cars unwanted, robotaxi behind competition, stock propped by dumb money and fraudulent CEO claims.

I get asked this a lot.  Almost every time I do an economic space, in fact.  "Why do you hate $TSLA so much?"

It's all a scam, from every angle. Anyone who has access to Tesla insiders will hear the same story from them:  The whole Optimus experiment is largely a fraud.  Every notable executive on the project has left the company, and the vast majority of the engineers took off, too.  Every demo of Optimus was telecontrolled by a human in a nearby room - the robots themselves have absolutely no autonomous capabilities and are years behind their competitors.  This isn't "inside information", this is something various engineers have said and Tesla has admitted; what I've heard from former executives largely just serves to validate what has been said publicly as "understating the problem".

Nobody wants their cars. Robotic taxi service is going to become a commodity service, and Tesla is way behind its competition there with no path to close the gap.  The solar roofs were a great idea executed terribly (I have the solar roofs on multiple properties, and they're great, but I'd never buy another one because of the Tesla factor).  The only interesting vertical in the entire company is the power delivery unit.  It's growing at a VERY healthy clip, but the margins aren't there and at best help wipe away some of the NEGATIVE value of the company in other verticals.

Tesla is a stock that is buoyed by nothing more than dumb money that keeps piling in to it and a CEO that gets away with making fraudulent claim after fraudulent claim with no repercussions.  It has a useless board that won't keep him in check, and instead allows him to continue consolidating power when he's run the company terribly over the last few years.

And THAT'S why I shorted it heavily at the end of 2024 (and made a fortune doing so) and why I again shorted it at the end of 2025.  It's simple:  I don't go long on bad companies with bad prospects.

$TSLA - TESLA OPTIMUS ROBOT FACES SETBACKS

Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot project is facing technical and timeline challenges despite President Donald Trump’s recent praise of CEO Elon Musk. The robots remain hand-built, lack full dexterity, and are often remotely operated,


Summary: Long JPM via 3/20 330 calls at ~$4.75, though lighter than usual given credit-card regulation overhang.

$JPM 3/20 330c.  You can get it for about $4.75 right now.  My position, as per usual, is more complex (and I built it this morning, prices !=).  I did go lighter than usual into the overall play, however, as the chaos from the administration re: credit cards is hanging over.


Summary: Holds long PG via 3/20 150c calls, still live despite being up ~$5 from entry.

Oh shit, I forgot I promised a trade last week.  Well, I took it a few days ago, so it's up pretty nicely from that point - I bought in about $5 ago on the equity, but it's still good:

$PG 3/20 150c $4

---

For full transparency of the trade, I only paid $2.95-$3 establishing a position on this particular strike.


puts in $TSLA every month in 2026. These puts were opened at 492.9 (average) with peanut butter spreads 490 to 400 across the way. holding my equity short and all future months

Summary: Active short in TSLA via monthly puts (avg entry 492.9, spreads 490–400) through 2026; holding equity short and future-month positions.

Just like last year, puts in $TSLA every month in 2026. These puts were opened at 492.9 (average) with peanut butter spreads 490 to 400 across the way.

Going ahead and closing out my January positions that are between $20 and $50 in the money; holding my equity short and all future months.

@RampCapitalLLC @Mindset4Money_X I shorted it at these levels almost exactly 1 year ago to the day and made more than you could ever dream of.

I'll be doing it again.


the worm is really turning at $MSTR. For the first time, Saylor has sold $MSTR shares just to pay operating and debt costs... Now he's selling in order to keep the lights on, and $BTC shows no sign of recovering. Ruh roh...

Summary: Bearish MSTR as Saylor sells shares to cover operating/debt costs with BTC not recovering; also bearish BTC with no recovery in sight.

We've been saying for years that Michael Saylor is either the most genius person of all time or someone who is going to go down as the worst businessman of all time, no in between.

It seems the worm is really turning at $MSTR.  For the first time, Saylor has sold $MSTR shares just to pay operating and debt costs.  Remember, his whole business strategy is to short his own company to raise money to buy Bitcoin.  Now he's selling in order to keep the lights on, and $BTC shows no sign of recovering.

Ruh roh...


Summary: Bearish USD on reserve-status erosion as institutions/nations shift to precious metals; precious metals rising as dollar distribution shrinks.

Why Trump's destruction of the dollar sucks part 2:  Why MAGA's counterargument is stupid.

For this next one, I really tried to find any prominent account that mentioned the ONE thing people could use to even attempt to defend his currency devaluation trick, but I failed to locate a single account to say it.  Surprising since everybody is an expert on macro policy all of a sudden.

Anyhow, what I'm talking about is what's known as The Triffin Dilemma.  What I was looking for were defenders of Trump's destruction of our economy on the premise that Triffin Dilemma put us in a situation where he deemed it a risk for trade deficits (something he is famously against, even though it's stupid to hate trade deficits).

For those who don't know, in 1960 Bob Triffin came up with a paradox that fit for the time that stated if you have a reserve currency (and not just the global reserve, but a regional reserve i.e. the yen in Japan or the Euro, for example), you have to distribute an ever growing amount of that currency globally to keep it stable and support international trade, but in so doing you create a scenario by which you inadvertently create consequential trade deficits.  Basically he argued that if you kept distributing currency, people would stop trusting the currency and it would drop.  However, if you stopped distributing the currency, it would create a liquidity gap by which the currency would falter.

It didn't gain a ton of traction back then (and in the 65 years since it was proposed, has not resulted in any of these outcomes), but it became a talking point of gold hawks once we went off the gold standard in '71 and, 15 years later, morphed from permanent creditor to permanent debtor.  Basically, if you find somebody who cares about the Triffin, you've found a Keynesian (another terrible school of monetary policy).  Ironically, people who harp about it today aren't actually practicing Keynes's philosophies, since what Keynes wanted was a central currency not tied to any nation.  Keynes had a globalist monetary policy, and yet people today who rail about the globalists try using his philosophies to fight globalism by....doing globalism?  For the record, this was Triffin's "solution", as well - he was 100% a globalist (which makes sense, cause he was Belgian)

Anyhow, let's tear apart why this is dumb.  Reference the chart below.  You see, in 1960, we were a production-based industrial nation that was running what's commonly referred to as a dual engine economy.  Industrial production accounted for almost half of GDP value, with services also accounting for almost half.  I could go back a mere 10 years and production/services would be inverted in dominance; I'm starting at 1960 because that's when Triffin came up with his paradox.

Now look at the 65 years since.  Services now make up over 82% of our economy, with production only 17.5%.  We're not a dual engine economy anymore; we're a services based economy.  And services based economies MUST, by definition, have trade deficits, rendering Triffin moot.  Once the golden age of manufacturing gave way to offshoring and global supply chains, trade deficit concerns stopped being relevant.  All of this is healthy for a nation that has become a debtor nation - a plan that has been in place since the advent of the Marshall plan in the 1940's (which was NOT about "rebuilding Europe", but rather about sprinkling US dollars all over the world to cement our anchor status for supposedly all time).

Now here's why the Triffins (even though they didn't reference this paradox, because they're not smart enough to know that's what they're referencing; it's not their fault, the sum of their "expertise" came from reading 3 short Tweets on this dumpster of a site) are living on a prayer:  Check out the industrial line of the chart.  We've bottomed out at the current levels.  What we manufacture are highly refined goods that can't be found anywhere else in the world, and that isn't going to shift - that's our "support".  Our "resistance" lies just above that.  Note that even though we have spent enormous sums of money trying to bolster our industrial base in recent years (most notably the Beautifully Bloated Bill and the CHIPS Act, which are nothing but handouts of taxpayer money to corporations to try to spur industrial growth), the best it's been able to cause is....nothing.  No effect.

So if we can't change our industrial base, and it's not going to sink lower, then our current trade deficits are normalized and stable and not a concern.  And Triffin must invariably be discarded.

So now that we've established their unspoken counterargument sucks (remember the last post where I talked about how all of this work was just to create a .03% increase in export contributions), let's talk about the dangerous game we're playing by trying to correct something irrelevant.

In trying to cure Triffin, they are forgetting the core basis for Triffin's original thought:  That being, reserve currencies must be distributed globally.  The way we distribute our currency is by imports and global trade relations.  If we stop importing and participating in global trade using US dollars as the primary source of currency, then we lose our reserve status.  Our reserve status is what allows us to spend wildly beyond our means.  If we lose that status, we can't spend beyond our means, and that 40 trillion and counting we owe goes from becoming something us doomers academically say is something we shouldn't ignore to a major fucking situation and exigent threat.  At present, the rise in $SILVER, $GOLD, $PLATINUM $PALLADIUM etc. is largely driven by institutions and nation states moving away from US dollars (lowering distribution) towards these metals.  We're signing our own death warrants.

The only way the gambit works is if we can somehow drastically improve the industrial line of the below chart while significantly harming the services line - but in harming the services line, we destroy our revenue and tax base, replaced with a less-good non-competitive industrial base that still can't compete globally because global labor costs are only 17% of that of the US.  Meaning everybody would have to start working for $1.13 an hour again, as well.  Non-existent industrial capacity can't pull us out of a fiscal tailspin by slightly improving its attractiveness on a global scale.  Also note that it's not really improving attractiveness because the rest of the world is decoupling from us in trade and doesn't trust us, so they aren't taking advantage of the weaker currency.

It's a fool's game that we can't win, and this administration is rushing headlong into it not because it thinks it can win it, but because the people closest to the administration who funded this absolute nightmare that we are in are uniquely positioned to consolidate power and profit greatly from the collapse.

And yes, I'm included in this segment: I am 100% benefitting from this economic policy, I'm just not greedy enough to obfuscate that it's happening.

Ironically, the people who will be hurt most by this policy are the ones who are touting it most loudly.  Enjoy your "water soup".

TL:DR:  Oh, so you guys run around screaming about the evils of globalism while trying to do globalism?  How quaint.


Summary: MSTR deemed functionally bankrupt with liabilities exceeding liquidatable assets; BTC force liquidation risk seen sending price to 4-digit levels.

He's scared.  Wait till you see the white of his eyes.

Bro, you just lost $43 a share in a quarter on a company that's only trading at about $100. $MSTR is functionally fucking bankrupt - your liabilities exceed your liquidatable assets.  And Bitcoin is now less than 20K away from your entire company's stash being force liquidated and sending the price of the tokens to 4 digits.

HODL isn't going to save you - you've got to find new injections of capital.  And your big problem is, anyone not already in crypto no longer trusts it and won't put any money in it (largely because of you).  So where's the money coming from, homie?  Your little crew is tapped the fuck out.


Bitcoin is now less than 20K away from your entire company's stash being force liquidated and sending the price of the tokens to 4 digits


Summary: Discloses significant long position in CRWV; warns against leveraged ETFs on it but holds substantial direct equity.

I don't know who needs to hear it, but any of you who buy these multi-leveraged single-ticker "ETFs" aren't investing.  You aren't even trading.  You're merely gambling.  And you shouldn't be in the markets.

There's not a lot I'm permitted say about $CRWV because of a professional entanglement I have and a certain amount of non-public information that finds its way to me, but in no way should people be buying EOD-resolving leveraged funds centered around it

Disclosure:  I have significant $CRWV investments

Seek to maximize your trading strategy with the T-REX 2X Long CRWV Daily Target ETF.


$MSFT 4/17 510c. I paid just under 11, I think it's probably right around that same level right now, I can't check. I went heavy.

Summary: Holds a heavy long position in MSFT April 17 $510 calls, paid ~$11.


Summary: Bullish all three with MSFT as top pick, GOOGL moderate, META less so; minimum 6-month horizon.

$META (less so), $MSFT (most so), $GOOGL (so so). Nothing < 6 months out.

This post is being written at the equivalent of 1pm EDT, but I suspect all 3 are at the same level as you read this right now because this largely isn't a tradable market. He's getting ready to retreat. https://t.co/MbgKmOB169


Summary: Bearish BTC, expects inexorable decline toward low-$50Ks amid Trump-linked crypto rug-pull concerns.

ICYMI, because you probably did, yesterday Eric Trump started aggressively deleting Tweets he's made about WLFI, Ethereum, and pretty much anything crypto, which was a tell-tale sign that they were about to rug the crypto community - again.

So for you crypto bros and crypto hos in the US, as you wake up this morning and see $BTC continuing its inexorable march towards low-50k's, just remember that Kamala, unlike "the crypto president" you got conned into voting for, wouldn't have disbanded the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team that is allowing the Trump camp to continually seal your cash.  Fell for it again awards for all!

The internet is forever

Eric Trump is deleting all crypto related 𝕏 posts

Crypto is about to rug hard and the Trump Insiders are about to get exposed https://t.co/kEt7RM3Iuh


Summary: Bearish MSTR: calls it a poorly managed scam heading toward forced liquidation to meet 11.5% debt dividend obligations.

Here's the thing I don't get about Saylor, and which $MSTR backers always overlook:  I'm not one of the people to call MSTR a Ponzi, because that's inaccurate, though I am clear in my position what he's doing is likely illegal.  But ignoring all that...

If your entire business model is acquiring as much of a digital token as possible, and you're selling your own company short in order to attain the capital necessary to meet that objective, why the hell does the company keep buying huge tranches at the tops instead of operating like a business and initiating predictable, cadence-driven purchases to take advantage of volatility dips and lessen the surface area of risk?

It's not just that $MSTR is a scam - it's that it's a poorly managed one.  It'll be fascinating to see the lawsuits start flying when they finally get liquidated in order to meet the 11.5% dividend yield they promise their debt holders in order to keep getting capital.


Summary: Picks LRCX as the single long play into earnings if forced to choose one name.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

This morning, on The Diner w/ @NHAunleashed :  "Put a gun to my head and tell me I have to pick ONE company either tonight or tomorrow morning to play long on earnings other than $META, and I guess I pick $LRCX

Haters on suicide watch. https://t.co/PQ0Dt0mjeW


Summary: Long LCID as superior EV vs Tesla; bearish TSLA robotaxi thesis on crowded competitive landscape.

My daily EV commuters are an E-Tron GT and a $LCID.  For those who have never been in one, let's just say the Lucid is light years better than $TSLA in terms of comfort, feature seat, and everything else that matters.

If Elmo thinks his hospital waiting room robotaxis are going to be the hot ticket in what is becoming a very crowded robotaxi space (Zoox, Waymo, etc.), he's going to be in for a rude surprise.

This is VERY bullish for $LCID stock.  If it's not already curled up by the time you read this (remember, you're seeing this about 12 hours after I write it)...


Elon decided to take 2 billion dollars of Tesla's money and give it to Elon's xAI company...he literally raids the company's coffers and depriving shareholders of value to fund his privately held science projects

Summary: Bearish TSLA: declining revenues, 61% net income drop, cancelled models, massive AI capex, and Musk diverting $2B to xAI at shareholders' expense.

So $TSLA had an interesting earnings report.  First YoY revenue drop ever.  Net income plummets 61%.  3% drop in revenue in Q4, with their automotive division revenues falling a whopping 11%, another 16% drop in vehicle sales.  Things are so bad they are cancelling 2 of their 5 vehicle models - the S and the X, leaving only the pleb-level 3 and Y as well as the modern day Edsel (Cybertruck) as their only production models.

More importantly, they signaled they're about to start sinking even more capex (to the tune of 20 billion) into the money pit of trying to solve AI - which is something a company with declining revenues should always focus on.

Oh, and in case you missed it, Elon decided to take 2 billion dollars of Tesla's money and give it to Elon's xAI company, because while that sort of malfeasance used to get you an SEC investigation back in the day, now everybody looks the other way as he literally raids the company's coffers and depriving shareholders of value to fund his privately held science projects.

But hey, energy storage is up 25% YoY, so that's a bright spot.  Till you recognize it's their smallest vertical.

Of course, $TSLA stock surged $13 a share in after-hours trading, because $TSLA investors are the dumbest people on Wall Street.


Summary: Long oil: geopolitical supply shock math points to $127-$170/barrel, far above current prices, driven by Middle East conflict cutting 21M bpd.

$125 oil isn't speculation; it's math. And it's the conservative estimate.

Trump wants to claim that the spike in oil prices is temporary and will collapse very soon, but the math doesn't lie.  If he doesn't back off this war, like RIGHT NOW, we're going to cross a point of no return on prices that aren't going to be easily resolved.

Globally, the world produces 102.6 million barrels of oil a day under normal conditions; it consumes between 101 and 103 million barrels a day.  That's a razor-thin productivity curve.

The conflict in Iran, absent any oil tankers or depots being blown up and exacerbating the problem, is creating a 21 million bpd shortage.  In order to make up for that shortage, globally we would need a 6% drop in consumption to achieve equilibrium.

With NORMALIZED elasticity, oil would have to reach a price of $127.20 to create the demand destruction necessary to achieve that 6% drop in consumption.

Now, stop to consider we aren't in a market with normal elasticity. Israel bombing oil depots, the US bombing oil tankers it doesn't like, Iran bombing critical Middle Eastern infrastructure.  The only current means of mitigating even some of this would be if the UAE and Saudi Arabia re-opened a couple of pipelines they've shuttered, and to do it pretty much immediately.  Problem with that is, those pipes have been shuttered for years and there's no appetite to open new transit when Iran might just bomb it.

The end result?  If this drags on, you're going to see oil go to as high as $170 a barrel.  For those who don't know, the ATH on oil was $147 a barrel.

Get ready for $7 gas, and if none of you ever studied the oil embargos of the 1970's, you might want to look up what the functional result was for the consumer.  Don't be surprised to see Trump ban exports of refined oil this year.

@NHAunleashed, oil and gas exec, is free to fact check me on any of this.  The math doesn't lie.