Summary: Long NFLX to $150 EOY, adding to leaps; short PSKY on extreme leverage that should cause collapse under its own weight.

Netflix $NFLX pulled off a masterclass in cutthroat competition and arbitrage against 2 unethical foes.  Their offer for Warner Bros. $WBD was already too high in most peoples' eyes, which was driving downward pressure on $NFLX stock.  They get already-leveraged-to-the-hilt Paramount Skydance ( $PSKY) to go even higher on what was already going to be the most leveraged buyout in recorded history...

...then walked away and pocketed a cool 2.8 billion dollars for in termination fees (which $PSKY will be paying) for doing absolutely nothing but participating in the bidding for a couple of months.

$PSKY, for the record, is also facing a 7 billion dollar failed acquisition fee that they will have to pay if regulators fail to approve the merger.  A block that SHOULD happen because it would combine 2 of the only 4 movie studios left, and something the Europeans are very likely to not allow happen.

If the deal DOES somehow go through?  Again, $PSKY already massively leveraged itself to buy Paramount last year.  This is 10x'ing that problem.  Expect layoffs of at least 75% of Warner's staff.

As for $NFLX?  They can just sit back and wait for $PSKY to collapse under its own weight and then buy both studios for 60% off a few years from now.  As to $NFLX stock? It's all systems go for an EOY target of about $150 (don't think the Cavebaby has forgotten about or exited those $NFLX leaps he called last year - I've actually been adding to the position).  The big drag was that investors weren't really sure what kind of value-add $WBD created for $NFLX at the price they were offering.  Well, now we know - it's just shy of 3 billion dollars in passive income.

$PSKY and $WBD, for the record, behaved shamefully throughout this whole process. $PSKY kept bypassing everybody and going straight to $WBD shareholders with its "my daddy is so rich and you should give me what I want" argument and $WBD executives kept moving goalposts, lying about potential closing scenarios, and renegeing on agreements - demonstrating they were in well over their heads.

Well done, $NFLX - a true masterclass.


Expect $PSKY to collapse under its own weight... $PSKY already massively leveraged itself to buy Paramount last year. This is 10x'ing that problem.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


Summary: Long AMZN via June 18 $200 calls at $17.40.

$AMZN 6/18 200c $17.40

I'm not going for a snipe here because I'm preoccupied with something else.


Summary: Short TSLA (cash drain from xAI/SpaceX bailout chain), short AI plays; long energy, materials, and emerging markets as the real beneficiaries.

Elmo is going to frame this as "optimizing AI" and probably "building datacenters in orbit" or some shit.  Here's the reality:

X ran out of cash, so he forced a sale to xAI and saddled xAI investors with the bad debt. xAI burns over a billion dollars a MONTH with almost no revenues (107 million/qtr).  So xAI is out of money.

SpaceX is actually profitable thanks to corporate welfare. I'm not sure if this is public or not, but it generates about 16 billion in revenues, and almost 50% of that is profit. It's corporate welfare profit, but profit.

Elmo is famous for refusing to let any of his stinkers of businesses sink (remember $FSLR?), so what's a guy to do?  Force the money pit that is xAI onto SpaceX investors (disclaimer:  I am one) to keep the xAI lights on.  Then you have a much hyped SpaceX IPO, which infuses the combined company with capital that allows xAI to keep pissing away more money than the GDP of a small nation.  It's a bailout, nothing more, nothing less.

And when SpaceX runs out of cash?  Simple, just force a merger into Tesla and take what's left of its cash reserves.

The sad thing is, this isn't even considered dirty in today's corporate stack.  The AI companies have been operating in a closed loop monetary system by which they just keep pumping each other full of the same money for a couple of years now.

The AI trade is incredibly crowded if you don't know what you're doing.  I said it late last year and I'll say it again:  Buy the shovel sellers, not the people mining for the supposed gold. Buy energy, buy materials.  The AI company balance sheets are AWFUL.  And I maintain what I said back in December that if you're looking to beat the big boys, get in early on emerging markets because that's where they're going to pivot to when the cops show up to break up the party.


Summary: Long Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate as beneficiaries of the flash shortage.

SanDisk Corp US equity, flash storage context

"Sandisk and Western Digital are the belles of the ball due to the flash shortage."

(I did forget to include Seagate in that sentence, but it was heavily implied at least because they're all in the same space).

HOW.  DOES.  IT.  TASTE?  Is it salty?  I just got done working out. I know, I know...I just got lucky.  Again.  For the 608th time.

I might be setting a site record for most big hits in a row in one post.

At this point, some of you have made more in 1 day than you'll make in a year at your day jobs.

Market analysis for the week:

Gold blew right past $5k and is pushing $5100
Silver touched $110
The dollar is in a freefall at 97.15
The EUR/USD is spiking at 1.19

There are going to be posts going up here today hounding a certain governor for completely misreading what this


I did forget to include Seagate in that sentence, but it was heavily implied at least because they're all in the same space


Robinhood is, at best, a $46 stock, and that's if you're very generous with valuation. It's not confusing how it would fall back into the 80's after a bunch of dumb money piled into it and drove it to 4x its value. I'm short $HOOD, and have been for about $40 now

Summary: Short HOOD with a $46 fair-value ceiling; author holds an active short position entered around $40, views current price as driven by dumb money.

Always amusing to me to see guys like this talk about how a stock's movement is "confusing".  Any time you see this in the context of something like $HOOD, you can safely disregard what the person is saying because they don't understand how to evaluate equities.

Robinhood is, at best, a $46 stock, and that's if you're very generous with valuation.  It's not confusing how it would fall back into the 80's after a bunch of dumb money piled into it and drove it to 4x its value.  Amit's made a pretty good name for himself on this site because he piled all of his cash into a series of meme-level stocks (this one, $PLTR, $RIVN, etc.) and watched as retail drove them to dizzying heights, and he's friendly enough about it.  But make no mistake:  The guy has absolutely no idea what he's doing and lacks even a basic understanding of evaluating equities from a structural perspective.

(Disclaimer:  I'm short $HOOD, and have been for about $40 now)

$HOOD

Let's talk about the Robinhood selloff.

So, this is confusing on multiple levels but I will try to breakdown what I think is happening.

- First, I discussed this in my end of year substack but I had hedged a majority of my position with deep ITM calls. The reasoning https://t.co/woSQQavY16


Summary: Selloff in software AI names (SNOW, DDOG, MDB, NOW, CRM) is overblown; implied dip-buy opportunity though warns not to be a hero today.

$NOW absolutely MURDERING the software side of the AI trade.  $SNOW -8%, $DDOG -8%, $MDB -9%, $NOW -11%, $CRM -7%.

Don't be a hero today, but these moves based on $MSFT's slowing Azure growth and $NOW reporting normalized earnings is overblown on these tickers.


if you're really smart, you took some of your gains and bought $CRWD shares. you now own $CRWD FOREVER, for FREE

Summary: Advocates buying CRWD shares with gains from options; holds long equity position indefinitely.

$61.

You should be to runners right now.  And, if you're really smart, you took some of your gains and bought $CRWD shares.  Congratulations, you now own $CRWD FOREVER, for FREE https://t.co/tbL1MTpnLs

$CRWD 6/18 400c $28.

There's no options liquidity for me at any given strike so I'm doing mostly equity here, but this strike is the best represented that I see.


Summary: Heavy short SPY position via puts/shorts, 2 weeks out.

$SPY shorts, 2 weeks out.  Heavy.

You're gonna be on your own for management.


Summary: Oil heading to $125–$127 on technicals regardless of government action.

First, oil is going to 125 regardless of anything the government does unless it backs out of this like RIGHT NOW.  The technicals say 127 if you want to be precise.  I'll explain why tomorrow.

Second, oh honey, I KNOW the market has more power than the "fucking US government".  Why do you think Trump has gotten on his knees before the bond vigilantes so many times?

@BonkDaCarnivore You think "the market" has more power than the fucking US govt? How dumb are you?


Summary: Despite being short TSLA, notes it looks set for a technical bounce near current levels.

"If YoU hAtE $TSLA sO mUcH wHy DoN't YoU sHoRt It?"

Anyways, I'm going ahead and taking my final trims on my April-June puts, taking my 2nd trims on my July-Oct shorts, and making my Nov-Jan26 shorts free here at $364.

I'd just like to thank the bagholders who were on the opposite ends of those trades back in December when you proclaimed $500 was imminent and it would be at $750 by now.

---

For the record, $TSLA actually looks ok for a technical bounce about here.  Pull up the daily and zoom out about 6 months and you'll know what I mean.


the whole business model is to short his own company and use that money to purchase his crypto. And, in exchange for that, he has to guarantee ridiculous amounts of returns to those who lend to him so he can short the company. Fail to pay those debts, and your credit lines disappear... Bitcoin drops about another 20k, and the credit lines vanish because he's so far underwater on his unpaid obligations

Summary: Bearish MSTR: Saylor's leveraged BTC model relies on perpetual credit lines and bond yields up to 11.5%; a ~$20K BTC drop triggers forced liquidation and credit collapse.

These $MSTR idiots think the money Saylor uses to buy Bitcoin just appears out of thin air and is free.  Dumb fucks don't even understand that the whole business model is to short his own company and use that money to purchase his crypto.  And, in exchange for that, he has to guarantee ridiculous amounts of returns to those who lend to him so he can short the company.

Fail to pay those debts, and your credit lines disappear.  Your credit lines disappear and not only are you not buying more, but you have to start liquidating in order to pay the yields on the bonds he's sold (mostly at 11.25%, but the most recent round is all the way up to 11.5).  Bitcoin drops about another 20k, and the credit lines vanish because he's so far underwater on his unpaid obligations.

The money he uses comes from a place.  The money he needs going forward?  Also must come from a place.  He doesn't just print the shit.

Bitcoin Bros and Bitcoin Hos are the absolute worst just for their stunning ignorance levels.  These dumb fucks have been HODLing $MSTR since $450 and legit think it's OK that 75% of their portfolio is gone.


Summary: Long SNDK with $1000 mid-term target; rebuts Citron short on AI storage shortage lasting 3+ years, 6x forward earnings, and Samsung capacity constraint thesis.

This absolute trash heap of a short report brought to you by Andrew Left, guy who has been caught dead to rights on his criminal proceedings.

First off, $WDC made the big below-the-ask sales of $SNDK shares (which, remember, they spun off into its own company again last year) because they're consolidating their core business focus to hard drives instead of flash and to aggressively lower its debt on the balance sheets.  Like any great company would do when they decide they don't want to own a subsidiary anymore and then find out a year later they can sell their equity in that subsidiary for 2000% profits.

More importantly, Left demonstrates he has no understanding of the flash market (especially in 2026) nor how $SNDK fits into the AI expansion play more broadly.  He tries to call Sandisk's flash a "commodity" and relies on the historical cyclical nature of the industry. What he ignores is that Sandisk - like all of the storage and memory companies - has been in a global shortage for a year and project that shortage to continue for at least 3 years more as the only industry keeping the economy afloat (AI datacenters) demands every piece of product.  He tries to use Samsung ( $KRW) as the justification for his short thesis, claiming that the only reason $SNDK has been able to explode is because Samsung wasn't operating in the same space, but is now going to do so.  What he ignores is that Samsung's presence in that space (which is presently at 50% margins thanks to the shortage) does nothing to alleviate the fact that - AGAIN - there's a multi-year global shortage and all of the players combined can't satiate the need to fill it.

Left then proceeds to defeat his own argument by acknowledging that Samsung has a yield issue (like everyone), but - right after calling the industry cyclical, which is an argument for these companies NOT increasing production capacity - claims that Samsung is going to *checks notes* ignore the cyclical nature of the industry and rapidly ramp up expensive production lines to take short-term market share.  Then...what?  Shut those production lines down and eat the money?  No - everybody is increasing capacity because they are seeing that it will be at least until 2030 before we can even start THINKING about demand equalizing in the AI space.  And all of this ignores the massive dearth of supply in the consumer space that will probably last well into the next decade at a minimum.

As to Sandisk specifically, under the hood?  To a casual observer, $SNDK looks expensive because of its eye-watering $640 price tag on the equity (something you could have bought for $30 a year ago, and if you were following the Cavebaby back then, did).  However, they're only trading an adjusted 6x future earnings with 2 VERY clear vertical channels that they aren't even paying attention to right now as they devote all of their attention to flash storage for the AI disruption, just because they're so busy on the core vertical that they don't have the ability to exploit new opportunities.  In case you don't understand what it is that means, it means that they're fully aware of the cyclical historical nature of their industry and are operating conservatively if anything and are being slow to expand - not reaching a top.

TL:DR:  Andrew Left released this short report just to use dumb money that doesn't know to see through his BS as exit liquidity for front-run shorts he established before this absolute toilet paper piece.  He's very likely already out of those shorts and leaving those of you who didn't know it was all a grift out on the island.

Cavebaby's mid-term price target $SNDK:  $1000

Citron is Short $SNDK — They Don't Ring a Bell at the Top
We don't need Anthropic to announce they're making NAND. Samsung is already the 800-pound gorilla, and they've been running this playbook for 30 years.

While TV pundits pound the table herding retail into cattle cars,


SPY puts from last week, if managed competently, should have closed at roughly break-even by Friday with active cost-basis trimming... They will likely be solidly green at market open. You know what to do, or should.

Summary: Maintains SPY puts position; expects puts to be solidly green at open this week amid extreme volatility from removed guardrails and tariff uncertainty.

Market analysis for the week:

Be very careful this week.  Without going in depth because I'm not in the mood, some guardrails were removed on Friday afternoon that are likely to create a VERY volatile event(s) this week, especially on the back half of the week.  Maybe I'll explain it in detail when things have settled down for me because it's an almost-invisible shift that only pros would know to look for, but let's just say the metaphorical gun's safety is presently off. If you don't know how to play extreme volatility, remember that cash is a choice, and often the right one.

Oh, and this will be a week where markets try to figure out how to price in the new tariff reality, which involves going through every provision in Smoot to see what the Idiot in Chief might use over his last few years of relevance to keep ramming through a tax on you.  Markets just loooove uncertainty.

This is a week that half the FinTwit grifters are going to come out of the woodwork and post up screenshots of them making 1500% on a 0-day trade to try and entice subs from unsuspected rubes. Those people will have simply gotten lucky by being on the right side of a move that honestly could go either way as I write this.

If it were me? I'd be taking a very skeptical look at any short-or-medium-term positions I have to ensure conviction, and finding ways to gracefully exit any that don't meet the mark very early on in the week. $SPX might be the ONLY ticker I'd be interested in short-term.

SPY puts from last week, if managed competently, should have closed at roughly break-even by Friday with active cost-basis trimming (it wasn't hard to see what contracts I took, all one needed to do was look at the volume right when I posted that message and check open interest to see the 2 strikes and dates).  They will likely be solidly green at market open.  You know what to do, or should.


Summary: META earnings expected to be significantly better received than prior quarters.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

" $MSFT almost always beats, but directionally it's 50/50 (7 of the last 13 quarters have been losses on earnings)."

"Expect $META's earnings to be significantly better received this time around."

Now you might ask yourself, is it hard to be This.  Damn.  Good?  And to that I say "thankfully, you'll never need to know the burden"


Summary: High-conviction long on AI software names DDOG/MDB/SNOW/NOW/CRM popping on DDOG earnings catalyst.

I gave you the keys last week.  Premarket isn't even open yet as I write this and I 100% promise you that AI software plays $DDOG $MDB, $SNOW, $NOW, $CRM etc. are up big as you read this because there's a 0% chance that they don't all pop on the $DDOG earnings that aren't even out yet.  I would bet my account on the AI software stocks being up nicely as you read this.

I'm doing something much more interesting across the pond.  You guys already know the accounts I tell y'all to go to for market analysis when I'm doing something else @theagenttrades , @Quinttrades , @TheMarketBishop go check them :). There's no way Quinn wasn't in software AI cause that's his bread and butter.

@BonkDaCarnivore Mr Bonk - no weekly write up today (Monday)?!


AI software plays $DDOG $MDB, $SNOW, $NOW, $CRM etc. are up big as you read this


Summary: Cybersecurity names PANW, CRWD, S, ZS are a buy at current levels; AI-risk selloff is overblown as management is fully prepared.

Cybersecurity stocks getting pummeled on rumors that Claude's new Mythos model is going to present cybersecurity risks.

I've been telling people for years what AI means for the future of cybersecurity. I assure you, George, Nikesh and the rest are fully aware of that and have been planning for it this entire time. If you think this is the Silicon Valley episode where Gilfoyle's AI cracks all encryption and has to be destroyed because there's no way to control it, you're sadly mistaken.  They're ready for this.

From a pure equity perspective, these names are a buy around these levels. From an options perspective you still can't touch them until $VIX $UVXY drops.

Don't say you weren't warned.  $PANW $CRWD $S $ZS


Summary: Bearish ORCL on negative FCF, debt spiral, Stargate failure, and layoffs; ARM leveraged to the hilt; WBD and Paramount potential acquisition targets at distressed prices.

We see this cycle of recklessness leading up to financial disaster about every 10 years or so, and here we are again:  Oracle ($ORCL) is laying off ~18% of its global workforce (25,000-ish people) with no advance notice to free up about $8–10B in cash flow.

Why? Free cash flow is deeply negative — around -$24.7B TTM — while debt and lease obligations have exploded. Market cap is down over 50% in just 6 months. Stargate has been a disaster so far - they were counting heavily on the Abilene Stargate data center expansion to prove the model, but that just got scrapped. Larry Ellison has leveraged himself to the hilt for this AI bet, which is not paying off yet. They’re staring down a class action suit from investors finally waking up to how expensive the OpenAI cash commitments really are.

Layman’s version: They just fired a bunch of workers who create the actual revenue-generating products… to service debt on a huge AI gamble that still isn’t throwing off meaningful cash. Textbook first step toward a death spiral.

They did manage to raise $30B in bonds/convertibles last month (order book started strong), but appetite is thinning fast — firms like Blue Owl have tapped out. Forward looking risk appetite has fallen off a cliff.  The list of entities willing to lend is shrinking, and now they’re cutting muscle and bone to stay relevant.

Their partners in this gamble? Also squeezed dry. SoftBank sold off significant chunks of $NVDA and is leveraging its $ARM stake for margin loans just to stay solvent and keep feeding OpenAI. As for OpenAI? Their latest pitch decks to VCs like me (and yes, I’ve seen them) reek of desperation with guaranteed-return promises. Huge red flag.

Luddites will frame this as “the AI bubble popping.” Smart people will see it as a reminder: practice strategic, steady growth. Don’t bet the farm on one unproven vertical with no clear timeline for returns.

Bonus angle: Don’t forget the Ellison family media play. The only reason $PSKY won the bid for $WBD is because David (Larry’s nepo kid, fresh off the leveraged Paramount buyout) got dad to personally guarantee billions he’s already stretched thin on from Oracle for an even more leveraged buyout in Warner.  If debt service gets ugly, don't be surprised when studios scoop up both WBD AND Paramount for pennies on the dollar.


don't be surprised when studios scoop up both WBD AND Paramount for pennies on the dollar


$NOW 6/18 100c $3.40

I went in light ( < 200 contracts) just because there's no telling when this irrational fear that AI is going to replace enterprise software will subside.

Summary: Long ServiceNow via 6/18 100c calls; bought light due to uncertain timing on AI-replacement fears subsiding.

This is going to open up a moderate amount.  Expect it to sweep back to the London range.  Make sure you secure some wealth today.

Trump's going to TACO again (got a post on that coming later), but it doesn't change the fact that the markets are still consistently trying to price in his Dementia-driven chaos, which means you want to create a footprint that's not exposed too seriously, and you want to provide armor (padding, in this case) to protect your exposure.


some might say that $CORN, say, the May 15th $20 strike, might support financial health? I took a look at the chart, and decided I liked it

Summary: Holds long CORN May 15 $20 call at ~$0.75 avg; likes the chart setup.

Did you know that corn supports urinary health?  It's true.  Some might say that $CORN, say, the May 15th $20 strike, might support financial health?  You could even get it for...well, I paid about $.75 on the average, but I think it'd cost you about $.85 now.

(Full disclosure:  I am not the one who found this trade on my own; a colleague texted me to ask about it, I took a look at the chart, and decided I liked it).


Summary: Bearish PLTR: trading at 225x forward earnings, intrinsic value ~$40/share vs current ~$126.

We've reached the point where the president is pumping individual stock tickers to benefit his buddies

For those who don't know, $PLTR, has been in a freefall down to $126, trades at 225 times forward earnings, and is worth about $40 a share if you're sane. https://t.co/knSyDXiT41


Summary: Long CRWD 6/18 400c now worth $41, up from $28 entry; still holding the position.


$TSLA has no focus, piss-poor execution, and rot from the top... trades at a 400 multiple in spite of declining revenues... It's a worthless company.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: declining revenues, no ROI roadmap, CEO misalignment, 80% profits from corporate welfare, near-zero organic margin — calls it worthless.

Because we invest in a company and expect the CEO and board of that company to act only in the best interests of shareholders to grow the company - not raid it like a personal piggy bank or consolidate power so that investors can't force course correction.

$TSLA has no focus, piss-poor execution, and rot from the top.  It's a car company whose car sales are in the toilet; plus, they've missed every deadline they've set by themselves by at least half a decade.  The Roadster is a decade late.  Auto-summon (which was supposed to be solved by 2018) still won't work in most parking lots.  They wasted money on getting into solar roofing and executed it like trash. Then they claimed they were an AI company for autonomous driving and ended up last to market and years behind their competition in what will be a commodity priced space.  They get into power delivery - which remains their only interesting vertical to this day - but invest so little into it that it's just waiting for a Chinese company to come eat its lunch.  And now they're sinking tens of billions on robots that are 15 years behind Boston Dynamics and numerous other companies, with pie-in-the-sky delivery dates for something that still can't even effectively walk itself.

Meanwhile, they've traded at a valuation more than just about every other car company in the world combined and still trade at a 400 multiple in spite of declining revenues and massive capex spend with no roadmap to ROI.

Oh, and did I mention in the midst of all of this that Elmo routinely commits fraud by taking $TSLA assets and giving them to his other, privately held companies with no value provided to shareholders for their lost property?  Remember all those $NVDA GPUs Tesla had that he gave to xAI because "Tesla wasn't using them"?  And all the while the only thing he's effective at is increasing his pay package in spite of the fact that, for all his "vision", he's an absolute shit CEO that all of his top talent flees the moment the golden handcuffs are off.  Him getting cozy w/ MAGA is just icing on top of an already rotten cake.

I had $TSLA since IPO, dumped all my shares last year and never looked back.  It's a company that trades on hopium and retail idiocy, not performance or fundamentals.

"But Bawnk, that's like, your opinion, man".

OK, how about this. 80% of profits come from corporate welfare. Remove the corporate welfare and their profit margin is < 1%.  GROCERY STORES do 1.5.  Once again, power delivery is the only bright spot with 21% margins.  Source:  Their own 10-K filing.

TL:DR:  It's a worthless company.

HTH.

@GerberKawasaki Why have so many ex-Tesla investors become haters?


Summary: Discloses a long position in PYPL, entered at a technically favorable level.

@CollinsWarRoom Madoff didn't take actual trades.  Byron did.

And I bought $PYPL as well.  From a technical perspective, it was at a great spot.

You're really bad at this.


If you like it at 40% off, you're going to love it at 75% off.

Summary: Sarcastic counter to bullish Bitcoin dip-buying; implies further 75% downside ahead.

Bitcoin is the greatest asset ever and you can buy it today 40 percent off.

Hurry up, sale ends soon.


Summary: Bearish TSLA with $131 price target; Musk's Optimus billion-unit projection is arithmetically impossible and historically unprecedented.

I know I made fun of this a couple of nights ago at a high level, but I want to come back to this and explain just HOW pants-on-head stupid what Elmo is saying here with a drill-down.

At a unit cost of 30k, that crosses over into what's referred to as "luxury durables".  In the history of the world, there has never been a product that has eclipsed 10 million units/year.  Yet Elmo is positing a theory he's going to 100x that in spite of him having no market edge and being years behind his competition and all of recorded human history working against him.  There's not even a CAR out there that moves 100 million, let alone a billion.  Matter of fact, the GLOBAL auto sales are 85 million - TOTAL.

Hell, it took almost a DECADE for $AAPL to sell its billionth iPhone, and that was a $500 product when it released in 2007, a far cry from 30 grand.

Also, if you're selling "a billion" robots per year, that's 1,903 PER MINUTE you would have to produce just to keep up with demand - and that's assuming a 0% failure rate of product. As electronics fail at about 5%, that is 2,003 per minute he's saying he'll magically come up with a way to create.

Sure, Elmo, Sure.  Just more dumb fuck commentary from a guy who never does his own math, just sets arbitrary deadlines and blames others when it turns out they aren't real.  Tell us some more lies about $TSLA robotaxis and features, they're more believable than this horseshit.

When I was running my VC, the WORST pitches I ever got (aside from the obvious grifter pitches) were the ones who played the "by X date Y industry will be Z dollars and if we can just capture N1% of that we'll be worth R1% dollars."  They're awful, and there's not a VC, PE, or Angel group out there who goes for those.  Yet here we have the richest guy since Mansa Musa desperately using it as he trips out on Special-K.

TL:DR:  $TSLA is a $131 company and falling.

Elon Musk today on @Tesla's Optimus robot:

"Hypothetically, if Tesla were making a billion of these a year at scale — maybe it would be $30,000 each, I'm just guessing — that’s $30 trillion in revenue."

via @theXtakeover https://t.co/keZdOcz0Xz


Trimming even more $TSLA shorts here; May fully closed out, June to runners

Summary: Closing TSLA short positions (May fully out, June to runners); trimming shorts implies bullish shift.


I've been trimming these aggressively for the last hour or so. At this exact moment they're just under $15

Summary: Still holding MSFT 4/17 510c after trimming aggressively; originally paid ~$11, now ~$15.

$MSFT 4/17 510c.  I paid just under 11, I think it's probably right around that same level right now, I can't check.

I went heavy.


Summary: Holds 100 contracts of CRWD 6/18 400c at avg $27.12; suggests trimming to lower cost basis but maintains long position.

Total position size 100 contracts.  Average price is down slightly to $27.12.

Current value $31.  Those who actually care about the money have a decent opportunity to lower your cost basis on this going forward by taking a quick trim.


Summary: Bullish MSFT; author argues it is wildly underpriced and urges buying into AI-related strength.

There are 3 types of people in the world:

1)  Those who will read this headline, identify "this is bullish as fuck" and start loading the truck

2)  Those who will decry "the AI bubble is going to pop" without looking at the underlying fundamentals and how wildly underpriced $MSFT is right now, who will avoid it and then cry about it later

3)  The 60% of the population that have no assets in the markets who will do nothing with this and will deploy what capital they have on the new Trump 250th anniversary coins.

Choose wisely, western man


Summary: Bearish BTC; claims to have predicted the decline and asserts further downside ahead.

Hate to break it to you, but I know exactly why it's falling.  And I told everybody almost a year ago this was going to happen.

The problem with you Bitcoin Bros and Bitcoin Hos is you get so defensive any time someone tries to educate your dumb asses that all you do is scream HODL! and sperge out like a cracked squirrel.

And I've got news for you:  All signs point to it getting much worse.

Bitcoin actually tagged $73,000 today, which is borderline insane. What’s remarkable is no one actually knows what’s happening and why price is going down. It’s all predicated on some BS glitch narrative from 3 months ago and the 4 year cycle which means absolutely nothing. https://t.co/jCyvjxogWF


Summary: Strongly recommends converting option gains into long NOW shares, holding forever; bullish on ServiceNow.

Going to runners here at $6.50

You should absolutely take some of your gains from this trade and BUY $NOW shares.  Congratulations, you now own $NOW forever, for FREE


Summary: Bearish SpaceX IPO at 600x forward earnings / $1.75T valuation; also bearish TSLA as SpaceX cannibalizes its buyer pool.

🚨Money losing opportunity!🚨

SpaceX has officially filed for its IPO.  It's got 15 billion in revenue and is pricing itself at a 1.75 TRILLION dollar valuation.  Meaning it wants to enter the market as the 5th biggest company on the exchange, behind only $NVDA, $AAPL, $MSFT, and $GOOGL.

It's pricing itself at 4x the market cap of $BA, $LMT and $NOC *COMBINED* (for those who aren't smart enough to understand why I picked these, this is essentially the entire aerospace industry).

It has 15 billion in revenue.  That's the revenue of a mid-cap industrial name.  It will be trading at approximately SIX HUNDRED TIMES FORWARD EARNINGS.  To put this in perspective, Mag 7 name $META has 200 billion in revenue - 13.33x SpaceX's - and is only trading at a 1.45T valuation.  And $META's margins are significantly better.

Look, I've always been very upfront with all of you that I was a very early investor in SpaceX, and am eagerly awaiting being able to rid myself of the equity - and not just because it's going to represent a massive profit for me.  But I'm telling you right now:

You shouldn't be investing in SpaceX unless you're just trying to scalp dumb money or you want to lose money.  There is absolutely no universe in which SpaceX is worth, or can ever GET to being worth, that kind of valuation.  The number of people like myself who pay $1,200 a month for 40 gigs of internet service from them based on TRAVEL speed (IYKYK, and you know it's the dumbest thing ever) are pretty finite, and the number of people paying the $30 or whatever it is for their home service is a low margin commodity business that's becoming ever more crowded.

Fact of the matter is, Elmo's "wealth" (it's in quotes because it's illiquid and he'd NEVER be able to sell his holdings to get to that number) is largely tied up in believers who keep $TSLA propped up in spite of its terrible outlook.  SpaceX isn't going to be an add-on for these people, it's going to be a cannibalization.  True $TSLA believers will continue to hold, those who chase the new hotness will leave and re-invest it into SpaceX, and ultimately both companies will be competing for the same pool of buyers, to the detriment of both.

A lot of you Elmo nuthuggers are going to come in here and say something stupid about what I'm saying here.  And to that I say "thank you for being my future exit liquidity, bagholder"  The smart ones amongst you?  Will stay far, far away.

Post-script:  The one thing I didn't talk about in this is how the NASDAQ has changed its rules to permit inclusion all the way down to 15 days just to appease Elmo - when functionally, what it does is forces exchange funds to purchase the stock regardless of how bad it is before the price has settled.  That's a legitimate short-term consideration, and something I will discuss at length in another post down the line.


Summary: Buying LLY June 18 $1,100 calls; bullish on LLY, expects options to appreciate and $1K strike level to be reached.

(I've scheduled this so as to not overlap with an RFK post I want the algo to not dilute, so the price will have changed...some way...by the time you see this)

$LLY 6/18 $1,100c $53.50. I'm not price hunting cause I'm still traveling. If you wait for $1K you'll likely get it.


Summary: Long AAPL calls; suggests taking gains at $6 on the 2/27 260c position but framing implies bullish near-term move toward that target.

So I forgot I won't be around to actively monitor this next week (or the 2 weeks after).

$6 is a good spot for dumb money to take gains with the understanding I probably won't comment on this again.


Summary: Bearish BTC; expects price to fall to the $40,000s despite exchange-coordinated buying and retail FOMO.

Bitcoin Bros and Hos get a little dead cat bounce and all of a sudden trying to take a victory lap like the bottom is in.

No..you got propped up during a period of no liquidity.  Binance bought almost 29,000 BTC, Coinbase chipped in for 14,000, Kraken another 8500, few smaller players got together and grabbed another 16,000 - all in the span of 1 hour.  And that's what caused the rebound in BTC price.

Just like during periods of low liquidity a whale can send the price plummeting and knock out a bunch of leveraged accounts, these companies who need BTC to remain something anyone can look at with a straight face can pump it a bit when the order book is empty. Price shoots up, retail investors (i.e. dumb fuck Bitcoin Bros) see it going up and get concerned they're gonna get left behind and jump in.

But these companies?  They don't want to hold all that Bitcoin - 68,000 of them, in fact.  So they're gonna rug you dumb fucks when they sell to get their money back.

The funny thing is, when I was doing my New Year's predictions and I got to $BTC I meant to say "time in the $50,000's", but I fat fingered it and hit 40's.  Decided to let it ride, but ideally I'd have already been proven correct.  But looking at the structure right now?  It's gonna hit those 40's, anyhow, and all the pumping by Saylor, Cardone and Paper Hands Portnoy isn't going to stop that.

You know, for the "future of money", it sure does need an awful lot of bailing out and backstopping to prevent it from collapsing.  Is it Argentinian currency?


Summary: Long ServiceNow via 6/18 100c calls; author disagrees that AI will replace enterprise software and holds multiple NOW positions.

$NOW 6/18 100c $3.40

I went in light ( < 200 contracts) just because there's no telling when this irrational fear that AI is going to replace enterprise software will subside.

---

All that said.  This also is far from the only $NOW play I opened https://t.co/ZQEioOUAOk


Summary: Still holding LLY calls after trimming; expects remaining position to go ballistic within 2 weeks.

Took some off across the board (I opened a lot of different $LLY plays), but for this one specifically trimmed a bit at $63.  Still very much in.  I expect to be in runners within 2 weeks - and I expect those runners to go ballistic. https://t.co/OoEYqDOJDB

(I've scheduled this so as to not overlap with an RFK post I want the algo to not dilute, so the price will have changed...some way...by the time you see this)

$LLY 6/18 $1,100c $53.50. I'm not price hunting cause I'm still traveling. If you wait for $1K you'll likely get it.


Summary: TSLA is imploding yet still valued at $1.5T — fundamentally overvalued and should be worth far less.

"Bonk, why do you keep saying the market is broken?"
"Why do you hate $TSLA so much?"

The great thing about these two questions is I can use the same exemplar to answer both:  Because we're still not talking about how a company that is completely imploding is still worth 1.5T https://t.co/jBejS0S4G1


Summary: Markets mispricing Warsh as hawkish; precious metals drop overdone and dollar strength likely to reverse as Warsh's dovish signals are absorbed.

12 months ago, if you had told me that Kevin Warsh was going to be the one to replace J-Pow at the Fed, I'd have been satisfied with the decision.  Warsh was a lifelong fiscal hawk who was laser focused on controlling inflation.

However - just like Fed members Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller before Kevin - he's sold his soul in his thirst for the levers of power.  He's been talking about aggressively lowering interest rates for months now in order to endear himself to Dear Leader.  Now maybe it's all a rope-a-dope and once he has the position, we'll see Trump do nothing but rail about how Warsh is the worst Fed chair ever because he's not trying to set negative rates.  Maybe Trump is being played.

But I have to go off what he's saying right now, which is essentially that he's going to be a Trump mouthpiece while providing the illusion of Fed independence.

All of this is a very long way of saying the markets are presently pricing in a hawkish Fed chair after spending months pricing in a dovish one (hence the drop in precious metals - because a hawk would be seen as bullish for the dollar), and they might not be paying attention to what Kevin has been saying lately.  Market likely going to oversteer.  Trump's ability to corrupt is unmatched.


Summary: Defends DRAM makers (MU, Samsung, SK Hynix): Turboquant compression likely fuels more memory growth, not losses; inventory pre-sold 12 months out.

I weep for the future of financial literacy. This idiot has 300K followers.

He actually thinks that, a day or 2 after $GOOGL announced a new compression algorithm, that the DRAM makers - who have pre-sold all of their inventory for the next 12 months - are "reporting million dollar losses".

None of them have "reported" anything, and none of the RAM makers ( $MU, $005930 aka Samsung, and $000660 aka SK Hynix) have said word one about Turboquant at all.  It's widely accepted that, if this compression technology lives up to the hype, it will actually fuel MORE growth in the sector, not less.

Beyond, "million dollar losses" for companies of that size are rounding errors even if they were to happen (which they haven't).

Last, this "brilliant" finTWIT fails to recognize that $GOOGL itself has been getting pounded like a little brother over this same time period, which wouldn't be happening if turboquant was stealing market market share from the hardware makers.  EVERYTHING (except for utilities, energy, and industrial engineering) has been getting beaten like a little brother in Trump's Epstein War.

Access to information lvl 100
Application of information lvl 0


Summary: Bearish SPCX at $135/1.75T valuation vs META's superior fundamentals; plans to sell into IPO and considers buyers exit liquidity.

SpaceX (soon to be $SPCX) is targeting $135 a share at a 1.75 trillion dollar valuation.

They did a whopping 18.7 billion in revenue, and aren't even profitable thanks to absorbing the financial albatrosses that are this site and xAI.

$META has a market cap of 1.5 trillion on over 200 billion in revenue and a diluted EPS of $10.44 a share.

"Experts" on this site will try to tell you that $SPCX is the better buy.  Just don't ask them for a quantitative reason.

I'll have more to say on this as Friday's IPO approaches, but I'm going to keep repeating 1 theme:  I'll be perfectly happy if you're my exit liquidity, but being my exit liquidity will just show you are not smart.


Summary: Still holding short DJT from $78.50, targeting zero.

$DJT reports revenue of $900,000.  No, I'm not missing a comma.  Their Q1 loss comes in at just over 400 million.  Stock is at an all time low at $8.93 at the close.  And for the record, yes I'm still holding my shorts I opened at $78.50.  I said I was holding it to 0 and I meant it.


Tesla has a valuation of 1.4T when in actuality it's worth maybe 500 billion, and it has no way to sustain those numbers

Summary: Short TSLA: current $1.4T valuation unjustified vs ~$500B fair value; fanboi base will split with SpaceX IPO, unsustainable.

I've been wanting to do this one for a while, actually.  Let's talk about Elmo's "wealth".  Or rather, "good luck actually getting it, Elmo".

Twitter's global sales are estimated at 2.2B FY 2026, down from the 4.5B it was doing before Elmo bought it.  Xai only had 500 million in sales and is burning over a billion dollars a month in expenses in spite of being behind literally every other AI competitor in the race.

So just on X/xai, you've got a company that Elmo paid 44 billion for, burning 15 billion a year in negative cash flow with no path to profitability.  So what does Elmo do?

He forces SpaceX investors (myself included) to shoulder a purchase of his pet companies for 250 billion.  That's not a real valuation, he used one of his companies to buy another of his companies at 100x trailing earnings, all for the purpose of changing what his "worth" is on the Bloomberg list - but with no actual value.

Oh, and did I mention he did this while arbitrarily valuing his other company, SpaceX, at 1 trillion dollars in spite of having only 15 billion in revenue and a 5B consolidated loss?  But again, that's what he valued his own company at, so the Bloomberg wealth valuation changes to reflect it.

Now, full disclosure, I'm a VERY unhappy SpaceX investor eagerly awaiting my ability to use Tesla bros as exit liquidity.  I'm somewhat limited on what I can say about SpaceX in general because of this conflict, but I can say that forcing us to bail out Elmo by purchasing his dogshit xai/X vessels at an absolutely absurd valuation while providing absolutely no synergies for SpaceX itself isn't exactly what any of us signed up for.

Even absent that should-be-criminal move on his part, SpaceX  revenues on their own are somewhat questionable, given that the satellites for Starlink only last 5 years, which is a real problem when you're only operating at 25% annualized growth.

For those who haven't been able to keep up with what I'm saying:  SpaceX was never worth 1 trillion, and the xai/X acquisition was a negative value proposition for SpaceX, driving its actual value lower, not higher.

THEN, as if all this weren't enough, SpaceX decides to IPO, gets the NASDAQ to change its rules so that institutional investors are FORCED to buy the stock as a representative member of the N100, and sets a valuation of 2 trillion dollars on that 15 billion revenue - again, with no justification, just "vibes" from Elmo.  So everybody gets told that SpaceX at 90x forward earnings on a company that stopped being profitable the moment xai/X was folded into it is a fair price, and Elmo's number on the Bloomberg list gets adjusted in kind.  1 look at the S-1 should have any would-be investor running for the hills.  Current investors aren't looking to acquire more - he diluted most of them against their wishes and will to facilitate his mergers with himself (I am one of the VERY lucky few who thought ahead to ensure my equity was not subject to dilution, so it didn't affect me the way it did them).

In truth, SpaceX is worth maybe 200 billion all-in, and there's no getting around that.

Then we look at the $TSLA front, where the company has a valuation of 1.4T when in actuality it's worth maybe 500 billion, and it has no way to sustain those numbers as Elmo fanbois will split themselves between $TSLA and SpaceX, they won't be able to sustain both tickers.  And Tesla itself is being propped up BY SPACEX in the form of Elmo forcing SpaceX to buy a bunch of Tesla fleet (including almost 20% of all Cybertrucks produced) in order to buoy Tesla's sales numbers.

Elmo's entire venture is one giant internal loop of funneling a finite amount of cash between his various ventures without actually creating any value.

So....to tie this all back to my original sentence:

What Elmo is worth "on paper" is nowhere near what he's actually worth.  Good luck him getting it if he wanted it.  The act of him trying to unwind his equity in any of his companies would crush the valuations so hard that he'd be lucky to get 10 cents on the dollar for it.  He's a classic example of having significantly less liquidity than his balance sheet displays, and most of his "worth" is tied up in shady ass accounting practices to artificially inflate the value of his holdings without regard for the fact the buyers to help him realize that wealth don't exist.

Not saying he's not the richest dude on earth even factoring all this in, but that Bloomberg number only exists on Bloomberg.

@BonkDaCarnivore Frankly it aged like a fine wine.

It made Tesla a sales success & Elon the richest man in the world.

The road to both unfathomable riches and ultimate political power is paved with same things.
Not delivering great things - promising to deliver great things. Fraud is now legal.


Summary: GME options poised to explode if a counter-bidder emerges; eBay undervalued relative to the bid given renewed resale demand.

And $GME has debt financing, as well.

Here's the thing:  I don't even think anybody WANTS a $GME/ Ebay  merger to happen, not even RC. If you dig down a bit, you'll see that $GME has options contracts worth a little over 22 million shares.  And eBay itself has been killing it lately, especially as people have taken a renewed interest in selling the shit they have around the house trying to make ends meet.  It's probably worth more than the bid.

From RC's perspective, if he can get another bidder to come out of the woodwork to one-up it, this is an easy win for him by which GME's options explode in value.

Even if the offer is completely serious, it's not nearly as leveraged as the $PSKY / $WBD merger, and people never said shit about that.

@BonkDaCarnivore That deal had backing from one of the largest PE firms in the world and the investment arm of Singapore. Explain the similarity to this deal.


eBay itself has been killing it lately, especially as people have taken a renewed interest in selling the shit they have around the house trying to make ends meet. It's probably worth more than the bid


Summary: Ongoing long BRK.A; reaffirms no intention to sell despite post-Buffett market-cap erosion and mixed meeting impressions.

I like him.  I think he worked under WB, CM, and TW's wing enough to where he understands the assignment.

That said, apparently more of $BRK.A's market cap was tied to the legend of WB than I figured, given the ticker's performance this year and the fact that this year's meeting and cookout was NOTABLY less attended.

I haven't sold a single share of Berkshire in over 15 years, and I'm not starting now.  The only thing about the investor meeting I left unsatisfied with was the explanation of why GEICO was underperforming its peers.  The BNSF news offset it for me, though.

@BonkDaCarnivore @ShortMyExistenc @johncardillo What is your opinion of Greg Abel?


Tesla is a disaster. 11 BILLION dollars of liability for Tesla, JUST on the refunds for FSD, let alone the breach claims and investor suits. And make no mistake, the class action suits will be FLYING.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: FSD fraud exposes $11B+ in refund liability, class-action suits, and no viable fix timeline.

The disaster that is $TSLA's earnings, pt. 3:  The numbers from the FSD myth

Of all the mistakes Elmo made during yesterday's earnings call, none was more striking than this:  He admitted that full-self-driving is not possible on HW3.  This is something those of us who understand the tech have been saying for years, as Tesla's reliance on vision systems instead of LIDAR comes with inherent limitations.

Elmo stated that in order for cars that he has been promising would be FSD capable from 2017 forward, they would need a complete replacement of the onboard computer AND all of the cameras.  He then proposed a solution of, rather than honoring the terms of the contract $TSLA established with every car buyer from the last 9 years (and every investor over that time), he was going to offer what amounts to a COUPON for a discount on a new Tesla.

The obvious problem here is, you can't breach a contract with everybody and then tell people who likely don't WANT to buy a new Tesla (myself included) that that's how you're going to handle it.  And, given that Tesla's inventory (even after he pulled some shenanigans with purchases with his other companies, more on that later), is all the way up to 27 days, it's obvious people have lost their desire to own these vehicles.  Legally, Tesla is at a minimum required to offer a full refund of FSD purchases over this entire time period (10k/car).

Anyhow, here are the numbers: 1.1 million cars have full FSD purchased (not leased).  That's 11 BILLION dollars of liability for Tesla, JUST on the refunds for FSD, let alone the breach claims and investor suits.  And make no mistake, the class action suits will be FLYING.

The alternative?  Elmo floated the idea of building "micro factories" to build all the computers and cameras necessary to replace all these systems (because he wants to be like Disney and have a policy of "once he has your money, he never gives it back").  Well, that won't work.  By Elmo's own admission, one of the big bottlenecks is memory bandwidth.  With RAM prices sky high because of the AI industry (which Elmo has contributed to, ironically enough), the production costs of these systems is way beyond anything Tesla could have projected.  And that's without factoring in the capex necessary to spring up "micro factories" all around the country - the construction costs, permitting, equipment, etc. etc.  It's not unreasonable to assume it would cost more than $10,000/unit to stand up production to retrofit these 1.1 million cars.  Now Elmo was super sketchy about this when he was talking, saying that replacement of the hardware might need to be offered...but he left out the part where he's going to be obligated to do it for free.  I would wager, in his mind, that he thinks this might be something he could charge for.

Worth noting here, amidst all these numbers, is that Elmo stated the fix doesn't even exist right now, and Tesla has no timeline for how it thinks it's going to "solve" it.  Given Tesla's history of always being years late on deadlines (we're in year 9 of "FSD level 3 this year", for example), that's not going to set well with people, especially ones with older FSD capable cars.

Tesla is a disaster.


Summary: Bullish NOW holding up amid broad selloff on AI-trade thesis.

The market is blood red today (and you knew it was coming if you looked to the bond market).  Know what's not down?

$NOW

It's almost as though there was a thesis involving $NOW and the AI trade.  But don't try to go out being a hero out there, people.


Summary: Bearish TSLA with a price target of ~$128, well below current price, giving more credit than the $50 bear case but still materially downside.

I know your history.  I've defended you more than once from the idiots here who don't respect history.  I will say that you and I have different PT's on Tesla specifically.  My number is more like $128 vs. your $50 because I place more value on the AI infrastructure and data they've collected than you do, but it's still well down below where it sits today.

I don't know why you tried to jump on me.  Like I said, I've long defended you from the jackals (exemplar from one quick search  below)

@BonkDaCarnivore @Galtlives I have forgotten more about autos than you will ever know. I was the auto analyst at Fidelity and accompanied my boss Peter Lynch to visit Chrysler and Ford. I was in the room with Lee Iacocca.
BRO.


3 months from now there's going to be a 'surprise' beat. Don't say you weren't warned.

Summary: Long NVDA: $INTC stake gains will show up in Q2 earnings as a surprise beat in ~3 months.

I've been meaning to do this post for months, but am just getting around to it today:  Did you know $NVDA is one of the best trade desks out there?  It's true.

$NVDA   spent 5 billion dollars on $INTC  shares, and that investment is now worth 25 billion.

Then they put 2B into $SNPS.  Another cool 400 million nobody talks about.

$CRWV?  22.9 million shares at $87.20, 17.9 million more pre-IPO for $5.58 a share.  Another 6.25 at IPO for $40 a share. That's 2.35 billion, now worth 5.3.

Then we have $NBIS.  2 billion in, 3.8 billion today.

All said and told, they circulated 11.35 billion to these companies in exchange for equity worth 36.5 billion today...and most of the money they gave for this equity?  The companies gave right back to $NVDA to buy more GPUs.

The $INTC investment is particularly notable in this instance, because the gains for that are going to show up in their Q2 earnings this year, which means 3 months from now there's going to be a "surprise" beat.

Don't say you weren't warned.


Summary: Cautious on META/MSFT at resistance and AMZN/GOOGL at ATH into earnings; long STX/WDC/SNDK despite gains, with broader market headwinds from seasonality and macro.

Market analysis for the week:  Part of this could actually be labeled a market analysis for the summer.

Here's the good news:  The markets have finally started to ignore Trump's on-again-off-again war crimes bonanza, so it's slightly less headline driven than it has been the last couple of months.  And the theatrical rendition of the correspondent's dinner over the weekend isn't going to move it.

Here's the not-so-good news:  On the shorter time-frame, this is the most important week of the quarter from an earnings perspective, with 5 of the 7 most important tickers on the market reporting.  And, unfortunately for those looking for easy wins, 2 of them ( $META, $MSFT) are at levels that have resulted in them being punished regardless of earnings previously (420 and 700, respectively).  2 more - $AMZN and $GOOGL - are trading at all time highs.  This puts all 4 of their upside potentials - and, by proxy due to their weight in the indices, the entire market - in a very shaky place.

When we look at the rest of the earnings calendar, there are even more vertical inducing minefields.  $DPZ reports before the bell, and while you'll be forgiven thinking they're unimportant, they speak to the health of the consumer and the odds are really good they're going to say the consumer has problems.  $GM takes a swing on Tuesday; $F and $CMG on Wednesday...same story.  The credit card companies are on deck this week - they'll probably be OK, since $AXP led the way last week.

Then we have the AI infrastructure trade.  Cavebaby classic $BE and yes-it's-an-AI-stock $CAT are up - both are going to report strong numbers, but they're at such eye-watering valuations right now that I'm not sure it will matter.  Top-5-stocks-of-the-year darlings $STX, $WDC and $SNDK are also in this week.  You're up an absolutely insane amount on these tickers, and they've got plenty more to give you....but maybe pull back enough cash to buy that new fishing boat with some of your gains, just to be sure due to the headwinds above (and now, below)

That other headwind?  Longtime followers have heard me talk about this for years now, but the old "sell in May and go away" phenomena.  While an outdated practice in the era of digital access to portfolios (this philosophy dates back to 18th century England and was a common practice in the US dating to about the 70's as institutional investors went to summer at Cape Cod) , it still has legs in the modern market.  For those who don't know, it's the concept of old money selling assets in May for the summer months because A) they'll be traveling and B) because returns during the summer months tend to be muted, so the risk:reward ratio gets out of skew.  With markets at all time highs, geopolitical uncertainty, the fact we can't go a single damn weekend without Trump trying to ruin it for everybody, and pent up luxury travel demand this year, there are a LOT more headwinds than tailwinds this week when you combine everything in the prior paragraphs with the fact that there WILL be selling to close out this week as liquidity leaves the markets.

There's also a note I want to make about China's industrial output and what it means for my EOY recommendation last year to look to emerging markets for the best opportunities (which was correct), but I've got a whole other post on that in the hopper for later in the day.  Just understand that there was data released overnight that will further make people aware that these markets are a safer haven than our own.

TL:DR:  Danger!  Danger Will Robinson!

(And, if you made it this far, pharma stocks look interesting this week - $LLY, $MRK, and $MRNA.  But understand the structure before just blindly jumping in to think you know what I mean by that)

---

Oh great, the site didn't take early morning edits I made to this after writing it out last night.

It completely excluded the fact we've got the Fed meeting on Wednesday, and China blocking an important $META acquisition.  Well, you got the sentiment well enough.


Summary: Always maintain NVDA exposure; persistent long conviction reiterated emphatically.

WHAT have I been telling ALL OF YOU for YEARS?

"ALWAYS have $NVDA exposure"

How many times do I have to tell you, old man?

@BonkDaCarnivore Now that you bring it up I did buy NVDA calls and closed some Friday and the rest today.

If only I had kept them all open until today.

I know I know

Pre mature contract closure syndrome is my problem 😭


Summary: Long AMD via 5/15 360 calls ahead of earnings report, short-term trade to be exited next day.

This is significantly more risky than I usually post here.  Purely a technical setup.  $AMD 5/15 360c $12. You will have an eye towards leaving this trade tomorrow win lose or draw, because they report after the bell

This is just a nod to my degenerate gambler followers (Lions)


Summary: Triumphantly confirms ELF 60c call now worth $7 (up from $4.20 entry); implicitly urges followers to act on continued bullish momentum.

industry='Household & Personal Products'

$7.

Some of y'all keep doubting me...

You know what to do. https://t.co/vNlKuAGMxu

I basically put couch cushion money in it because I'm disinterested in general, but I feel like I owe you guys a TotD, and this one has a superb setup

$ELF 8/21 60c $4.20


the 2 biggest recipients of this spend ( $NVDA and $DELL) are down 5% and 2%, respectively… If you buy time, this is the easiest money you can make

Summary: Dip in NVDA, DELL, and BE despite surging AI capex is a buying opportunity; all three flagged as easy money with time, though BE carries valuation caution.

Some posts about this go up later today, but if you paid attention to the megacap earnings yesterday, you heard that they're all upping their AI capex spend dramatically.  Stupidly so, in my opinion.

Meanwhile, the 2 biggest recipients of this spend ( $NVDA and $DELL) are down 5% and 2%, respectively.  $BE is down 7%

If you buy time, this is the easiest money you can make (though $BE, that's a really high equity price, and I say this as someone who has been beating that drum since $9)


$BE is down 7%… If you buy time, this is the easiest money you can make (though $BE, that's a really high equity price


Summary: Still holding DJT short from March 2024, targeting zero; position has never been in the red.

I announced my $DJT short in March of 2024.  I'm only NOW getting credit for it?  That short has literally never been red, even with the maintenance fees I pay to continue borrowing the shares as I ride it to 0. https://t.co/DHkQMWfXEu

Congrats @BonkDaCarnivore

You're a top Market Prophit for your call on $DJT

Go to https://t.co/HQDyBNv73S and check out sentiment, buzz, and other crypto data.


Summary: Bearish on cybersecurity names into earnings; author flagged a short pattern across FTNT, ZS, S, PANW, CRWD, RBRK.

The easiest trade on the markets the last few weeeks:  Shorting cybersecurity earnings:

$FTNT ⬇
$ZS ⬇
$S ⬇
$PANW ⬇
$CRWD ⬇
$RBRK ⬇

Even if you missed the pattern early, AND missed my weekly market analysis, you had plenty of later tickers to ride the wave with.


Summary: Holds bullish call positions in MSFT (Aug 420c), CRWV (Jul 120c), and SOXL (Aug ladder).

$MSFT 8/21 420c $18.90
$CRWV 7/17 120c $3.73
$SOXL 8/21 c XXX (I bought the ladder up)

---

https://t.co/sOZmlXXl07


$SOXL 8/21 c XXX (I bought the ladder up)


Summary: Bearish ALAB via 7/17 220-strike puts; options position signals downside drift.

$ALAB 7/17 220p $21.70

My play is drastically different, but this best encapsulates the drift.


Summary: Bearish TSLA: 328x earnings vs Mag7 ~30x, failed robotaxi rollout, Fremont delays, power distribution down 15%, Texas loophole closing — sarcastic dismissal of bull thesis.

The disaster of the $TSLA earnings call, pt. 4:  Logistics.

A lot of the remainder of the Tesla call was Elmo revealing that Tesla has failed to execute even beyond its normal boundaries.

-The much-ballyhooed Fremont factory that they were retrofitting away from making the discontinued Model S to the Optimus robots (which are still vaporware) is behind schedule

-They finally admitted that they failed to rollout Robotaxi fast enough, with Elmo blaming regulators instead of Tesla's own technical limitations. (more on this in a moment)

-The Roadster reveal - now 10 years late - still "isn't ready to be shown" with Elmo claiming it's "a month away".  Except he's been saying it's a month away for years.

-The golden child of the company - power distribution - came in DOWN 15% for the quarter, the first negative print in this vertical in forever, signaling market saturation and softening demand.

But let's go back to this Robotaxi problem:  Tesla put all of its Robotaxi eggs into a Texas basket, leveraging a loophole in the state laws that permitted them to put these things on the road - something they can't do in other states because they can't meet the requirements necessary to get the permitting.  OK, fine, fair play to anyone who can exploit a loophole.  But what nobody is paying attention to is that Texas is closing that loophole right around Memorial Day.  Given Elmo's admission that the current robotaxis are not capable of achieving level 4 autonomous driving, it's likely that further rollout of these vehicles could be put on hold for quite some time until such time as they can obtain the proper certification. A period of time in which competitors like Waymo and Zoox are doing widescale expansions across many cities, and Uber has partnered with $LCID to create autonomous delivery frameworks.  Meanwhile, Elmo said we'd have a million of these robotaxis on the road...6 years ago.  Now Elmo is stating it might not be able to roll this out at scale until 2027.

Meanwhile, Tesla trades a 328 times earnings when the rest of the Mag 7 trades in the 30x range.  But tell me more about how this is a generational opportunity for an undervalued ticker.


Summary: Detailed bearish teardown of TSLA Q1: 1-time items, payables stretch, double-counted tariff refunds, capex delays — author calls results fake or depressingly bad.

The disaster that is $TSLA's earnings, pt 1:  There was so much wrong with Tesla's Q1 earnings tonight that I have to break it into smaller bits, and it could very well take up every queued post slot today. Let's dive in, shall we?

Their Q1 print, at a glance, was "respectable enough" - EPS of .41 on just under 22.4B in revenue on the top line - good for a 17% and 1% beat of the ankle-high already reduced expectations of the street. YoY EPS of 52% and 16% on rev.  QoQ numbers looked bad, but they couched it as the result of their aggressive sales promotion drive in Q4 to clear inventory (read: To make sure Elmo cleared the gates for his equity based compensation). Stock initially popped ~5% on the release.

The only problem?  It's all BS.  If you look under the hood, you'll see that a whopping 480 million of their top line revenue was 1 time.  Excluding that alone would knock their EPS to .31, an 11.4% miss.

How did they do it and generate so much "free cash"?  A big part was the age-old trick of *checks notes* simply not paying their bills.  They had a quarterly revenue decline of 2.5B, papered by a 1.3B increase in payables with declining receivables of 617M.  Oh, and they dumped their pre-paid expensive levels to 1B.  They pushed supplier payments by 10 days - from 61 to 71.  For the record, 6 months ago it was only 52 days, so they've stretched out their payments by 30%.  Another way they did it was by - somehow, and I'm not sure how they did this or why it would pass audit - counted their tariff receivables twice (they booked the refunds both as income in auto and energy), and then cooked the books on how they calculate warranty flow.

On that same vein of "simply don't pay": The expectation was they were going to report -1.8B in free cash and "surprised" with +1.4. Remember that 20 billion in capex they said they were going to spend on AI in FY26?  Well, they upped that projection to 25B...but didn't spend ANY of that additional capex they said they were going to spend, in an attempt to frame their "hypergrowth"  tale - they're implying they're going to backload it onto Q4 26 to drag out impact.  Matter of fact, they only paid for 2.5B worth in Q1 - less than half of their previously claimed run rate.  Meaning, if they hadn't delayed their previous stated expenditures, they would have missed by 300 million.

And I don't even want to go into how they issued 4.5B in new debt.

TL:DR:  Literally everything about this earnings call, from a numbers perspective, is either outright fake or depressingly bad.  If you don't see that, then you aren't an investor, you're a cultist.


Summary: MSFT looks ready for a breakout to the upside.

$MSFT looks like it's ready for a breakout.

Just sayin'. https://t.co/439fU5D9Xz


Summary: Added to CRWV (Oct $105 calls) and ARM on the dip; views today's weakness as a buying opportunity.

Added October $105 to my tranche for $CRWV , btw.  Today's price action is a gift.

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Also added to Arm, for those who caught the meme.


Also added to Arm, for those who caught the meme.


Summary: Long ELF 8/21 60c, expects the options position to double to $8.40 intraday.

I'm gonna be on a boat most of today so won't be here to call it, but at some point today this is going to become a double at $8.40.  Making your trade free at that point is big brained.

Apologies to Woaky's household who is going to have to find ways to hide this gain so his ego doesn't get tripped at being a lesser provider than some stranger on the internet :P