Summary: Bullish PLTR as the next evolution in foundational AI that replaces entire human workforces, not just a margin tool.

I see $LMND-style AI as a byproduct of companies just trying to improve their margins. I'm more interested in the foundational stuff, next evolution $PLTR, that actually replaces the entire human workforce.

For coding, as an example (Cursor, Windsurf), they're great but still used as assistance. We're not quite at the jump to zero-supervision AI.

For example, in BD, you have a massive loop of outreach and communication that every company needs. The tech is there, but it’s still too fragmented. The goal is a scalable, autonomous system that handles the entire pipeline from outreach, to customer closing across every segment, end-to-end without a human in the loop.

And if a private company/public company can make that happen, then I see that being incredibly valuable.

@aleabitoreddit Wow - that’s such a cool overview. What about the real world AI layer? Companies like $LMND employing AI tool chains heavily in end consumer verticals?


If $NBIS was $135 today I'd still buying

Summary: Still bullish NBIS at $135; held long position despite running out of capital to deploy.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Internet Content & Information'

@soulbiri1 Yep. If $NBIS was $135 today I’d still buying - but ran out of dry capital to deploy on the full tail end of the drop sadly.

Ended up buying long term positions in photonics players and Circle though

@aleabitoreddit At $88 Nebius is almost at a fair price. Just gotta add 1 in front of the price and it's fair!


Summary: Long NBIS: oversold + violent rebound expected, amplified by Nov 24 MSCI inflow of hundreds of millions to low billions into a $22B cap.

@rioferdy838 @hereforgoodish2 $NBIS is obviously oversold and due for a violent rebound but maybe frontrunning for Nov 24th MSCI index inflow on top which is a few hundred million to low billions inflow.

That much makes a huge material difference when Nebius is only a $22B marketcap.

@aleabitoreddit @hereforgoodish2 we're seeing some life in NBIS

Looks like its curling


Summary: Bullish VLN on cheap valuation (2.1x sales), strong balance sheet, 63%+ margins, and robotics segment growing 40%+ with NVDA-like margins.

You can do fair value calculations yourself and make your own decision.

I provided metrics in the earlier post about $VLN but I’ll just repost them there

fabless semiconductor at 2.1x Sales, $253m MC with:

$93.55M Cash, $10.97M in Inventory, Zero Debt
Blended Margins of 63% (GAAP) / 66.7% (Non-GAAP).
- CIB Gross Margin: 69.1%

- Automotive Gross Margin: 43.2%

3. Fwd revenue ~$80M (20%+Y/Y growth)

4. 76.3% of their revenue coming from Robotics segments with $NVDA like 69%-70% gross margins

5. Revenue segments from robotics growing +40.4% while automotive are shrinking 37.9%. The growing part of the business (robotics) is almost two times as profitable as the shrinking part (automotive).

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit is it too late to buy now?


Summary: Bullish NBIS; 40% selloff unwarranted as 25bps or AI-bubble fears don't change fundamentals.

Yeah market wide reversal caught me by surprise. $NBIS ended up dropping from $103 to $84 for little reason.

Rubner from Citadel was saying it was a purely  algorithmic selloff despite $NVDA massive earnings beat for "derisking" purposes. Just so happens tons and tons of open interest expiring tomorrow.

Option flow aside, don't think a 40% selloff is warranted for 25bps. "Fearing an AI bubble" or 25 BPS doesn't change fundamentals that instrumentally.

@aleabitoreddit Just bought more NBIS at 84 today, basically all my remaining funds. Hopefully it’s up from here


Summary: RKLB most overvalued; LITE warrants re-rating on AI chip exposure; NBIS, CRCL, and ALAB are undervalued.

So I’d say $RKLB is definitely the most overvalued right now.

$LITE is edging toward the overbought territory but it definitely warrants a re-rating given how critical it is in TPUv7, Trainium, and Blackwell chips.

$NBIS and $CRCL are most undervalued out of the bunch, then goes $ALAB.

@aleabitoreddit Which of these stocks are currently undervalued?


$LITE is edging toward the overbought territory but it definitely warrants a re-rating given how critical it is in TPUv7, Trainium, and Blackwell chips


$NBIS and $CRCL are most undervalued out of the bunch


$NBIS is special. Even up 5.75% today, at <$30B market cap, it's a screaming buy on every dip. This is a once-in-a-decade company with fundamentals and forward revenue far outpacing marketcap. Easy high conviction hold to $175+

Summary: High-conviction long NBIS to $175+; screaming buy on every dip, fundamentals far outpacing market cap.

I rarely repeat-post a stock… but $NBIS is special.

Even up 5.75% today, at <$30B market cap, it’s a screaming buy on every dip.

This is a once-in-a-decade company with fundamentals and forward revenue far outpacing marketcap.

Easy high conviction hold to $175+ https://t.co/MzjEuxSAkD

Bought $500K worth of $NBIS.

My highest conviction stock out of anything for a 1 year time period.

$225 PT https://t.co/buW9CV4WWH


I'm already into quite a bit of micro caps like $AAOI which is leveraged $LITE imo just for the $MSFT Maia ramp

Summary: Long AAOI as a leveraged play on MSFT Maia ramp, with Jan 6-8 conference as a near-term catalyst.

@itsthesquonky I’ll do some research today on it, thanks for the shout.

I’m already into quite a bit of micro caps like $AAOI which is leveraged $LITE imo just for the $MSFT Maia ramp.

There’s the conference Jan 6-8 I think which should be a catalyst if Microsoft reveals more news about it

@aleabitoreddit Nice! I missed that post. I’ve been researching one other company that I didn’t want to mention yet since I’m still learning more about it, but it’s called $ALMU - this company has figured out a way to grow light directly on top of the chips. Worth a look @aleabitoreddit


Summary: NBIS selloff on improving fundamentals is a buy; CRWV near-term headwinds on earnings delays; CIFR and WULF benefit from AWS/Anthropic buildout.

It's a mix of:

- indiscriminate selling of high-beta + AI stocks
- government shutdown extensions
- rate cut December odds
- increased shorts from depreciation accounting

Some like $NBIS were affected by sector selloff despite record high earnings and positives to fundamentals.

Others like $CRWV were more understandable near term from forward earnings miss from delays.

Generally ER and updates were very positive from Neoclouds like $CIFR with AWS and $WULF with Antrophic's $50B buildout today.

If stocks like NEbius get sold off despite improving fundamentals, it's a buying opportunity.

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts around the selling? Registry is likely a lot of retail still, as the long-only community would not be holders due to relatively small market cap. Just seems that any AI risk-off day, NBIS gets hurt the most…


Others like $CRWV were more understandable near term from forward earnings miss from delays


Generally ER and updates were very positive from Neoclouds like $CIFR with AWS


$WULF with Antrophic's $50B buildout today


a generational full-stack company growing forward q revenue 1000%+, which owns critical portfolio companies for long term defensibility. I haven't been wrong on any high conviction stocks yet. This is just the beginning

Summary: Strongly bullish NBIS as a generational full-stack company with 1000%+ forward revenue growth; author affirms high conviction.

@Mitchelldzll Don’t think bagholder is a correct term for $NBIS, a generational full-stack company growing forward q revenue 1000%+, which owns critical portfolio companies for long term defensibility.

I haven’t been wrong on any high conviction stocks yet. This is just the beginning

@aleabitoreddit I hope you're right. You've created a lot of bag holders


I've initiated a position in $VLN ($155M MC)... The market expected 2026 with high cash burn from inventory risk from a ticker collision typo. Instead, they are likely to get: Revenue and earnings beat... sector average valuations would be $493.5M, from $155m as a conservative base case

Summary: Long VLN: argues market mispricing from analyst/scanner ticker-collision typo inflated inventory fears; clean balance sheet, new higher-margin robotics/medical verticals, 4x–8x EV/revenue upside.

I've initiated a position in $VLN ($155M MC).

This one is wild.

Valens is a AI semi for self-driving cars and robotics.

I've found that markets messed up on VLS from a ticker collision data error.

And missed new CES 2026 info this week.

VLN has:

1. $93.5M in Cash, 0 Debt.
2. ~$11M inventory
3. High gross margins ~69.1% (CIB/ProAV) margins, 43.2% automotive.

and projected to do $70M+ revenue with blended 63-65% gross margins, jumping from 43% from their automotive pivot from CES.

At $155M MC. What?

This just looked way too off at first glance, so I had to do more research, whether it was revenue collapse, dilution, cashflow problems, or regulatory risk.

What happened?

The mispricing was from an analyst/scanner typo regarding a $82M "inventory burn":

VLN is effectively a company with $93.5M Cash and Zero Debt for an EV of ~$65M, while the market has punished it for an "inventory crisis" that literally does not exist.

Streetwise's analysis + other scanners around Nov 13, 2025 typo'ed their report when they erroneously stated: "Inventory of US$82 million remained in line with the end of the second quarter".

The market and algorithms that scan for the reports thinks $VLN is sitting on >1 year of dead inventory ($82M) and burnt through their $93.5M cashpile on unsold chips.

We can mathematically prove this is a typo using the company's official Q3 2025 balance sheet:

Total Assets: $136.7M
Cash: ~$93.5M
Remaining Room for Assets: $136.7M - $93.5M = $43.2M.

If inventory were actually $82M, Total Assets would have to be at least $175M ($93M cash + $82M inv). This inventory figure is mathematically impossible.

After looking at their financial reports, they are sitting on just ~2 months of inventory ($11M), only selling what they make.

The analyst + algorithms wrote spread the report confused Valens Semiconductor (VLN) with Velan Inc. (https://t.co/oJVlzuwtoL), a Canadian industrial valve manufacturer (with that inventory amount).

Even LLMs that read this, completely messed up and required manual review.

 $VLN actually only has ~$11M in inventory as a fabless chip company and did not burn through $82M.

This looks like a genuine market inefficiency because you are looking at a clean balance sheet ($93M cash, $11M inventory, $0 debt) that has been artificially suppressed because of $82M cash burn fears on dead inventory due to the type.

_

Now, the secondary aspect is new CES information that came out.

$VLN spent years and millions on R&D for DSP engines for Mercedes, which presented single customer concentration risk for the automotive segment.

But from the CES release this week, they've effectively took the same that exact same engine, and managed to sell it to many hot verticals that have the exact same physics problem. They've also managed to scale their previous automotive segment with new T1 automotive OEMs.

But regarding their (VS6320 vs. VA7000) chipset, they are using the same Core IP (DSP).

Medical Chip: They took the same engine from the auto chip and stripped out the car-specific features to create a Extender for the medical segment .

And my favorite is the Machine Vision/Robotics vertical:

The new information is that with the RGo Robotics partnership they announced, RGo integrated Valens chips which allowed RGo to design robots where the cameras are far away from the brain without signal loss. And at CES they also announced one with CIS Corporation (a Japanese camera maker) for another specific robotics win.

They've effectively diversified their automotive segment into multiple other high growing + higher margin verticals for robotics computer vision to others.

Again, the alpha is that their new robotics segments announced at CES, operate on a 6-month sales cycle, not the 5-year automotive cycle. So revenue actually hits this year too.

Also, analysts were using blended automotive revenue (Mercedes, etc.) has lower gross margins (~42-45%).

The new growth coming in now (Robotics/Medical via VS6320) has significantly higher margins (VS6320 Gross Margin: ~69-70%), so the the blended gross margins will likely come in significantly higher than street consensus.

_

Now the downside?

Extremely heavy dilution at $11.5 Strike from warrants (which is 10X+ from here).

This will cap upside if it ever increases 1000% from $1.5 to $11.5
_

TLDR:

The market expected 2026 with high cash burn from inventory risk from a ticker collision typo. Instead, they are likely to get:

Revenue and earnings beat (driven by new verticals and much higher blended margins ~69%+ from new chip).  As well as an $70M+ cashflow beat from the typo.

We could see $85-$92M revenue off 63-65% blended gross margins and that $82M+ in cash modeled back into this $155m company.

The algorithms are pricing $VLN as if it has <1 year of runway due to a phantom $82M inventory pile (off of a poison pill data point). So this is my own personal thesis from public information synthesis on why I entered this trade, NFI.

So while I don't expect this to be a $2B+ company, the current MC is just completely irrational pricing for a

$155M MC semi:

- with $93.5m in cash
- $11m in inventory,
- est. $80m+ revenue (growing 20%-30%+ Y/Y)
- with 60%+ gross blended margins.

Fabless semi companies with 60%+ gross margins typically trade at 4x–8x EV/Revenue and sector average valuations would be $493.5M, from $155m as a conservative base case.

Just slight "AI/Robotics" Premium, could value it at $653.5M with 7 E/V (~320%+)

TLDR: Found that this company likely got artificially suppressed because of a typo + ticker collision from false $82M inventory burn and is about to enter a newer higher margin + growth cycle from new verticals.

I am taking advantage of a database collision error.

I've initiated a position in $OSS.

I usually never say this but, this one is exciting.

Markets completely missed this 155M MC Drone Swarm, Ghost Fleet, USVs, Edge AI deploying US DoD contractor.

And they especially missed OSS’s involvement in the Venezuela's invasion, that https://t.co/fUBFa0gy8D


Summary: Hold/add to positions in Neoclouds, Mag7, and semis; current dip is short-term noise ahead of recovery when government shutdown ends.

Ignore the noise and hold positions/add in market winners.

You have:

- Insane forward revenue growth from Neoclouds like $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR
- Record high CapEX projections from Mag7 earnings like $META to $MSFT
- Record high forward revenue projections + margin growth from semiconductors like $TSM.

If fundamentals are in tact, news headlines like "The AI Party is Over" is BS.

We'll likely see a major recovery when government shutdown ends.

This is likely a short-term correction pricing in a few things such as no third rate cut (86% -> 70%, still likely) + government shutdown extending past the 16th (53% chance, 30% chance 2 days ago) per contract markets.

November 4th - Stock Analysis + Macro

Fire Sale: $META • $NBIS • $IBIT

Strong Buys: $RDDT • $RKLB • $WLAC • $CIFR • $LTC • $SOL • $CORZ
Memory: Nanya $2408, SK Hynix $HXSCL, $MU

Buy: $AMZN • $DELL • $SMCI • $ALAB • $CRDO • $TSM • $AMD • $FLNC • $TE

Warnings:


Insane forward revenue growth from Neoclouds like $NBIS, $IREN


Record high CapEX projections from Mag7 earnings like $META


Record high CapEX projections from Mag7 earnings like $META to $MSFT


Record high forward revenue projections + margin growth from semiconductors like $TSM


Added very heavily in $TSM today ~$302.5. We've been chopping since record breaking earnings from $TSM just felt it would breakout anytime now.

Summary: Heavily added TSM at ~$302.5 expecting breakout post record earnings; added CRCL at ~$87.2 on $19B MC opportunity with USDC growth and crypto rebound.

Added very heavily in $TSM today ~$302.5.

Also added a decent amount in $CRCL positions at ~$87.2.

We’ve been chopping since record breaking earnings from $TSM just felt it would breakout anytime now. This is just gut feeling.

As for $CRCL rate cuts hurt, but the USDC printer keeps on going. Crypto also rebounding from Dec rate cut, and share unlock is done.

So felt $19B MC was a good opportunity. I wanted to go long on Circle ever since IPO but never got the opportunity to until recently.

Stock position updates:

Sitting on high-conviction longs like $NBIS and writing options, relatively lax weekend.

Minor position adds updates from last week:

$LITE - $316.5 (+5.53%) -> ~$335.91

Lite benefits from $NVDA Blackwell + $GOOGL v7 TPU rampup

$AMKR - $37.6 (+18.4%) https://t.co/lSRE4AVT18


Added a decent amount in $CRCL positions at ~$87.2. felt $19B MC was a good opportunity. I wanted to go long on Circle ever since IPO but never got the opportunity to until recently.


$VLN could have been a $700m growing semiconductor stock but was artificially suppressed by a false $82m capex number. This isn't some random microcap, it's a legitimate growing semi with $93m cash and $70m revenue off 60%+ gross margins.

Summary: Bullish VLN: legitimate growing semi with $93m cash, 60%+ margins undervalued due to false capex data suppression.

@MitchMartan98 Yeah $VLN could have been a $700m growing semiconductor stock but was artificially suppressed by a false $82m capex number.

This isn’t some random microcap, it’s a legitimate growing semi with $93m cash and $70m revenue off 60%+ gross margins.

$VLN Not here to pump a stock but I reviewed the math and it checks out. It's up 36% today and it's still really cheap.

A true inefficiency in the market due to human error that likely only happens in micro cap land. With that said, $4 probably in play here.


Summary: Initiated/added DKNG, UNH, AMZN on tariff-driven dip, viewing them as least exposed to tariffs.

In terms of position changes:

Started new $DKNG position - $32.7 (seems pretty good value, 7% drop)
Bought $UNH - $356 (3% drop)
Bought $AMZN - $217.8 (4% drop)

Just felt these were the least unaffected by tariffs, especially Draftkings lol.

Also since macro fears randomly appeared today with a Trump tweet, it’s an amazing dip buy opportunity on $SPY 1.65% drop.

Just some examples:
$AMZN - down 3.7%
$AMD - down 8.27%
$HIMS - down 8%
$SNAP - down 5.1%
$META - down 3.07%

$WLAC, $NBIS always good to DCA.


I built up positions on the drop to $70. very happy hold + multi year long for me

Summary: Holding long CRCL bought at $70, multi-year conviction; bullish on Circle after 70% drawdown from highs.

Thanks, I was waiting forever to build long positions on $CRCL.

We had crypto sector liquidations, float unlock, interest rate cuts, and high beta stock selloff, finally causing a 70% drop from the highs.

Now Circle is finally at a respectable price again, so I built up positions on the drop to $70.

I did originally place buy orders during the IPO but then it just went to $250+. There’s been a lot more positive developments since so from an investor’s perspective, very happy hold + multi year long for me. CSPs is also a good strategy, but I’m a little more greedy trying to capture the upside.

@aleabitoreddit As always, an absolutely incredible write up. Spot on. I’m selling some CSP’s on $CRCL next week. Juicy premiums as well


Summary: AXTI singled out as the only end-to-end InP substrate supplier, a key bottleneck for AVGO's laser fab.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Grok is likely conflating wafer fab with InP substrate manufacturing. $AVGO's penn fab still requires InP substrates from Sumitomo, $AXTI, or JX to build the lasers (hence the bottleneck) and they're likely customers.

And that small $700M MC company $AXTI is probably the only one of the bunch that does this end-to-end by owning Gallium, Indium, etc. on from the initial raw material refining.

So the "does not primarily import InP wafers/substrates” part is probably wrong.

@aleabitoreddit Glad I own AVGO ….. https://t.co/S2Sf2vhaA5


Strong faith it will recover with newfound plot armor in the upcoming month or two. I'm around cost average now after being up a ton but as long as you didn't get margined out of your position, long term it should heavy outperform.

Summary: Long NBIS; expects recovery in 1-2 months with long-term heavy outperformance.

$NBIS is just in its training arc after being betrayed by its closest friend Macrosuke.

Strong faith it will recover with newfound plot armor in the upcoming month or two.

I’m around cost average now after being up a ton but as long as you didn’t get margined out of your position, long term it should heavy outperform.

@aleabitoreddit @Neat_Lama Its a heavy bag but i will follow you religiously (bought nbis at 130, lowered it to average 103 the past fwq weeks)


I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base... current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC

Summary: Strong long NBIS: current $23B market cap is a firesale vs $39B no-growth fair value, with path to $100B+ on one more hyperscaler deal; 4x return in 1 year targeted.

Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year:

Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B).

If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027:

Core Business: $31B–$36.5B
Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed)
Midpoint Valuation = $39B valuation (+62.5%)

This is before factoring in any growth, which could scale it up to $100B.

Today, investors are effectively paying $13B for the core business today, which is on track to grow 1,000% YoY-from $100M in quarterly revenue to $1.3B , with 60-70% gross margins.

Markets are usually forward looking, but for Nebius, it only looks at the ground.  These are just informal thoughts and a small writeup.

Business Valuation:
__________________

Current cash equivalents (post $4.2B) ~ $5.88B

Portfolio Companies: ~$2.68B

Clickhouse (28%, $6.35B valuation), Avride (17%, ~$3.1B valuation), Toloka (51%, ~720M valuation) - speculative estimates on Avride/Toloka. Also did not consider Clickhouse updated valuation, which likely grew).

Physical Assets: ~$2B midpoint

GPUs (~750m-1B), Servers, networking ($400-600m), Land/buildings ($300m-$500m), power/cooling ($200-$300m). Total phyiscal assets sitting between $1.65B-$2.4B

Conservative Sum of parts: ~$10.58B (As of today, not considering portfolio companies going up). Nebius has eliminated most debt from the note conversion.

Typically companies with portfolios never trade 1:1 with NAV, so I just slashed 40% off 10.58B or so when doing calculations which is conservative considering it's mostly cash.

_

BASE CASE WITH NO GROWTH

Now going into the core business:

FY 2026-2027 EST: $1.1B projected FY 2025, + $3.8B from $MSFT (contract / 5) (obviously maybe revenue lag, which is why it's on avg 2026-2027 anyway).

If Nebius stopped growing completely off their 2025 projections, they would do $4.98B minimum ARR in 2026/2027.

Gross margins are sitting at ~71.2% (from last quarter), but likely between 60-70% + management aiming 30% EBITDA.

These calculations from the core business are if growth stopped completely:

EV/Revenue 6–8×: $31.2B | 41.6B
EV/EBITDA 15–25×: $23.4B | $39B

Forward-looking EV on the base/bear case = $31–42B (revenue) or $23–39B (EBITDA)

(Core Business) + Sum of Parts = $33.58B midpoint no growth case + ~$10.58 * .6 = ~$39B.

And now we'll consider that next if Nebius grows.
__________________

CASE WITH GROWTH:

Now here's how we get to $100B just based on core business.

$NBIS has ~$5B ARR confirmed.

Only thing Nebius needs is ARR growth to $8–12B:

1 more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion.

All it takes is a GCP or Meta deal and we hit that target. (This is just high-level, not going into GPU depreciation arguments, increasing power, execution risk, etc). And I'm bullish on the chances of another hyperscaler deal happening in 1 year time when more Mag7 signed deals recently (eg Meta $14B with CRWV).

Also everything else would need to stay the same gross margin: ≥60–70% and EBITDA target: ~30%. On the bright side, with the whitepaper, we've also likely seen expanding margins with Nebius.

NBIS is claiming near-100% realized GPU utilization through their whitepaper yesterday, which would justify higher margins and higher revenue per GPU compared to $CRWV or any miner pivot (+ NBIS has no no-toxic interest debt, and a more diversified client base).

Their software orchestration is a moat in and of itself and not all neoclouds or bitcoin miner pivots can sustain the same high-gross margins.

Happy to argue why full stack, margins, customer diversification with SMBs are important (if you want to compare $IREN GW capacity, or others) -> just look at $ORCL losing $100m+ on buildout.

Regardless, I'm bullish on $NBIS over every other possible Neocloud because of opex costs + margins + fullstack + client base. (Feel free to let me know if I missed anything or calculated wrong, also open to debate)

But that aside, current $23B marketcap is a firesale that does not price in growth when it should be valued at $39B today. Then there's the upside on 1 more hyperscaler deal though for 4x return in 1 year at a $100B MC .

The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel

Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return.

🔹 Buckets

Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅

With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF

Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH

Miners pivoting to


Summary: Bullish VLN: lightweight fabless semi in AI/robotics with 68-69% margins, 20-30% growth, $80M+ revenue; sees $700M market cap as fair value vs current ~$7-8.

It’s hilarious $VLN could be valued at $700m today $7-8, and that would be considered normal.

But everyone thought they blew $82m capex on inventory, which turned out to be a ticker collision.

Lightweight fabless semi in AI, huge cash pile, 68-69% margins for robotics vertical, and growing 20-30% with $80m+ revenue from my CES projections is an insane find

$VLN detailed report

i think we got 10X winner 🥺


We'll likely see this come in fruition in the upcoming weeks

Summary: Bullish VLN; expects the thesis to materialize in coming weeks.

@yianisz Great write up on $VLN. Most institutions modeled this wrong but valuebase got it right.

We’ll likely see this come in fruition in the upcoming weeks

I went down a rabbit hole on $VLN that most skip.

At first glance, institutional ownership looked thin. Instead of assuming “smart money isn’t here”

I checked who actually owns the stock. One name came up: Value Base Ltd, holding ~20% of the company via a disclosed activist https://t.co/TV5AxWPzpC


Yeah I'm long $MSTR. It's great since mnav went closer to 1 again. And it got derisked since Bitcoin treasury companies weren't delisted from MSCI recently.

Summary: Long MSTR as recovery play near mNAV 1 with MSCI delisting risk cleared; Bitcoin directly preferred as safer alternative.

Yeah I’m long $MSTR. It’s great since mnav went closer to 1 again. And it got derisked since Bitcoin treasury companies weren’t delisted from MSCI recently.

I’ve been in it since $156, it’s still down 60-70%+ from highs and a good recovery play imo. But of course Bitcoin directly is a lot safer since risks are always there from treasury companies going way under mnav like Grayscale back in the day.


Bitcoin directly is a lot safer since risks are always there from treasury companies


I've liked Samsung Electronics bc it captures a lot of overflow from $TSM and serves as a competitive alternative

Summary: Prefers Samsung Electronics over MU for TSM overflow/foundry exposure; implies MU is the weaker play.

@drakeondigital I’ve liked Samsung Electronics bc it captures a lot of overflow from $TSM and serves as a competitive alternative.

You don’t quite get the same exposure there with $MU


You don't quite get the same exposure there with $MU


Summary: Long NBIS: $9B ARR + margins justify $100B market cap, stock should trade well above current levels even after dilution.

The $2.7B worth of ATM shares for dilution will put short term pressure on $NBIS stock price.

Fundamentally doing $9B ARR a year with their margins should bring them to a $100B marketcap anyway.

I'd argue stock price should be way up above these levels even factoring in dilution. (convertible notes were at $138+), and this was before their ridiculous ARR growth and $META deal.

@aleabitoreddit Its nuts. Can't believe the stock is red in premarket. Not moving?

Glad I opened some more CSPs to play earnings.

But unfortunately I opened some on CRWV too. Big mistake. Got greedy.


Summary: Bullish Neocloud thesis: NBIS, WLAC, IREN have durable moats via software orchestration + high gross margins, not just chip scarcity; NVDA benefits from intentional GPU allocation strategy.

Great question!

Hyperscalers signed confirmed utilization + spend, for example with $NBIS deal with $MSFT, Microsoft is spending 17-20B over 5 years.

It's not exactly risking high-capex, since they're spending to pay for capacity since there's a bottleneck. They're still spending tens of billions of dollars, partly because they can't do it themselves and partly because there's a larger risk in high capex upfront. I wrote in my central thesis that Neoclouds + intentional GPU allocation to these Neoclouds were $NVDA's way of maintaining dominance, diversification, and not risking margin compression down the road.

We've also seen hyperscalers have trouble with buildout on their own, (eg. $ORCL losing $100m), but this just goes to show that there is a huge moat with Neoclouds in terms of software orchestration handling GPU utilization and maintaining high gross margins with how they do their buildout.

$NBIS, $WLAC, and others already had 70% or so gross margins and it's just execution now. It's not just scarcity in chips, there's actually a competitive advantage that these little guys + Bitcoin miners turned HPC ( $IREN), that is the moat.

@aleabitoreddit Master love the huge arr growth here
But im concerned about margins and amortization ,
Just to be the devils advocate
Is there a chance that hyperscalers just don’t want to risk high capex so they chose nbis?
Or do we have a moat other than scarcity in chips?
Genuinely asking:)


Bitcoin miners turned HPC ( $IREN), that is the moat


Neoclouds + intentional GPU allocation to these Neoclouds were $NVDA's way of maintaining dominance, diversification, and not risking margin compression down the road


$META is growing 26% Y/Y and their forward P/E is 18.9X... There's just some mispricing in the market right now

Summary: Long META: 26% Y/Y growth at 18.9x fwd P/E is mispriced vs WMT at 40x; FCF covers capex fears.

They're growing ads -> FCF would pay for any capex. FCF was $10B+ Last quarter yet everyone was scared for their lives on spend.

$META is growing 26% Y/Y and their forward P/E is 18.9X.

$WMT is growing in line with inflation with a forward P/E of 40x+.

There's just some mispricing in the market right now

@aleabitoreddit What do you think happens if they report good numbers but revise capex up?

People don’t like the capex as % of revenue


Summary: Still bullish on IREN, WULF, and CIFR as the Neocloud sector expands rapidly.

@theBTCMiningGuy So the point I made was nuanced, I’m still bullish on stocks like $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR and believe the Neocloud sector will expand rapidly.

Just pointing out realistic downside risk in that not all execution will be pretty at scale and I personally changed portfolio positioning

@aleabitoreddit I suggest studying supply and demand


I bought a mini position now just cause I'm unsure

Summary: Initiated a small long position in RUM despite uncertainty.

@junyongisusing1 I bought a mini position now just cause I’m unsure https://t.co/ZXzZHFRABT

@aleabitoreddit Have you started any positon in RUM


Summary: Bullish AXTI: China export controls eliminated its only other competitor, making AXT a monopoly in InP substrates for AI hyperscalers.

If you’re wondering why $AXTI is up 14%, China probably read this and sent an export control nuke to its only other competitor.

AXT just became the monopoly of the InP substrates. https://t.co/i8FSYPscfx

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:

1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)

Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.

Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and https://t.co/8mqrgONJbb


Summary: Long ETOR (mispriced, tax harvesting) and VIRT as under-the-radar names that tend to play out well.

@MakhmudovAkbar Yeah lol, I think the market is completely pricing $ETOR wrong and it's probably a lot of tax harvesting going on right now.

I try and find stuff people don't really touch much like ETOR and VIRT and they usually play out well. Feels like everyone on X is on $BMNR or $NBIS

@aleabitoreddit Whoa. ETOR, 1.2B cash (inc. investment) and 420M total liabilities and positive operating cash flow.


I try and find stuff people don't really touch much like ETOR and VIRT and they usually play out well


Summary: Expects NBIS and ASTS to perform well over the upcoming months.

@EestiRadar If you're 18, I'd recommend a high risk portfolio like what you have since you're young and can take risk.

Most people would have that concentration in March at ATHs but I'd expect growth stocks  like $NBIS or $ASTS to do well the upcoming months.

@aleabitoreddit idk why but i trust you a lot as a week-long follower

i 85% ported NBIS avg 111$, 100 shares, 18 years old no income.

portfolio used to be mag 7 + UNH now it’s NBIS and a sprinkle of CIFR, IREN, ASTS, BITF, ONDS

hope my risk pays off tried to do my own DD only on NBIS


Summary: Bullish NBIS: AI compute cloud will prove more profitable than critics expect, analogous to AWS/Azure/GCP.

@PronkDaniel People said that about it AWS, Azure, GCP and others but they turned out to be the cash cows of Mag7.

When you take the same business but for AI compute then funnel it down to $NBIS and others, it will be more profitable than people think after buildout.

I'm seeing people place 10X sales terminal valuations on $NBIS, $IREN & $CRWV.

These are high-capex businesses that will probably have razor-thin profit margins long-term.

But let the music play, I guess.


Summary: AMZN is a great DCA buy right now; considering adding calls on dips.

@__visionxry__ $AMZN is a great DCA buy right now.

Super tempted to buy calls but just sitting in current positions for a week unless there's some -4% day.

@aleabitoreddit Unfortunately im not that regarded and usually only do shares:( but went 10% amazon just now


Summary: Long IREN at $49 on vertical integration, high-capacity GW, and MSFT hyperscaler deal, though execution risk is elevated.

$IREN has extremely high upside if they get orchestration right on the infrastructure level and a $100B+ marketcap ($400) is a tad-overly ambitious but possible.

Vertically integrated, high connected GW capacity, and hyperscaler deals like $MSFT make $IREN a buy at $49.

However, execution risk is a much, much higher now with the Microsoft deal, now that they decided to buy GPUs.

Managing the full GPU stack, including system integration, software, drivers, and networking (that $ORCL failed to do well) goes far beyond colo.

@aleabitoreddit $IREN is a $400 stock. I've been accumulating since $12/share and have a heavy buy order. Although, I believe we go lower.

Even with solid $NVDA earnings.


Summary: Long LITE as asymmetric setup on hyperscaler ASIC optical; long AAOI as extreme alpha / levered play on AMZN Trainium + MSFT Maia with unique InP fab.

Among $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, etc. I've found $LITE to be the most asymmetrical setup since it's central to ironwood (with OCS), blackwell, and other hyperscaler ASICs.

However, $AAOI is extreme alpha. Especially as a levered play on $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia ASICs scale up + one of the only InP fab in US.

Although they have $4B $AMZN warrants + purchase agreements, it does seem likely that Dec's orders were Maia-based clusters. There's rumors that $AAOI seems to be developing a new optical interconnect architecture specifically for $MSFT's silicon too.

$AAOI hasn't moved at all, despite hyperscaler ASIC hype + photonic rallies, so it's a hidden gem for sure at $2B MC. However, it is highly levered to $MSFT and $AMZN (which will likely succeed + deploy their own ASICs at scale given their own cloud departments)

AI data centers don’t just need more GPUs, they need a way to move massive amounts of data between them.

That’s where optical chips come in.

McKinsey estimates that by 2029, 800G optical modules will dominate the market, but production may fall 40–60% short of demand.

In other https://t.co/5RD17yrPQO


$AAOI is extreme alpha. Especially as a levered play on $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia ASICs scale up + one of the only InP fab in US


Summary: Bullish AXTI: controls 40% of InP supply chain, likely monopolizes substrate after Japan export controls, bottlenecking hyperscaler optics, transceivers, LiDAR, and SiPh.

FYI 7n prices are exploding on SMM (and it trades at an even higher premium in US markets)

It's a critical material used in:
- Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc)
- Optical transceivers (5g, data)
- LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military)
-Optical Modules (interconnect clusters)
- Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use  InP CW laser arrays.)

$AXTI's CEO said they control 40% of the InP majority of the supply chain. And the substrate supply chain would likely be monopolized by them after Japan export controls.

So one company bottlenecks everything above.

@aleabitoreddit It's a commodity with low barriers to entry, hence why it is still unprofitable despite memory already ramping production.


But even if $NBIS were $160 I wouldn't sell it because it's more of how long ahead the market prices in a stock. Forward numbers are just blowout for 2026... core business is probably doing $13B+ ARR in two years... could easily be a $100B+ company in the near future

Summary: Strong long NBIS: wouldn't sell even at $160, blowout 2026 forward numbers, $13B+ ARR in 2 years, $100B+ market cap potential.

Yeah $NBIS is an extremely high beta stock capable of moving 30-40% in 1 week timeframes.

Especially come December when there’s a rate cut + Santa rally (if there’s no yen carry trade shenanigans), could see a straight line up.

But even if $NBIS were $160 I wouldn’t sell it because it’s more of how long ahead the market prices in a stock. (Right now markets are wearing blindfolds and looking the wrong direction)

Forward numbers are just blowout for 2026, and who knows for 2027. When your core business is probably doing $13B+ ARR in two years and all your side businesses are scaling 100%+ Y/Y, could easily be a $100B+ company in the near future.

@aleabitoreddit Gonna happen faster than we think if we mean by market cap.
Could be by YE2025


Summary: Sees today's drop as a buying opportunity in LITE; plans to add to existing position on ASIC/photonics demand spillover thesis.

@DigestingX I'm researching $AVGO earnings right now and ASIC demand spillover to photonics like $LITE!

I wanted to add to my $LITE position since that was my lowest right now, so might be a buying opportunity as you mentioned.

@aleabitoreddit What price are you targeting to get more $LITE? Today’s drop seems like a potential opportunity


Summary: Long ETOR: genuinely undervalued at 22% growth / 18x P/E, market mispricing; potential 40% rally.

I think $ETOR might have been my only cost-avg loss so far this year 😅. It important to post unrealized losses as well.

I don't think I took into Cathie Wood buying up the stock for @ARKInvest  into my calculations since stocks usually do the reverse when she enters/exits.

But 756.7M million+ in net cash, 3.6B market cap, and profitable.

IBKR seems to be loved growing at similar rates, but it's often compared to $HOOD or $BULL that's growing at 40%+.

It's genuinely undervalued though at ~22% growth and 18 P/E and market is pricing this wrong. Maybe there will be some random 40% rally once IPO buyers give up.

Cathie buying $BLSH $ETOR $TOST $FIG, selling $TEM.
$ARKF $BTC $ETH https://t.co/hpoAkcsf6j


Summary: Bullish NBIS: sold-out capacity validates demand, $7-9B ARR ramp ahead with hyperscaler DC buildouts as tailwind.

For $NBIS it's a validation of high-demand for full-stack infrastructure, not a limitation.

They have 2.5 GW contracted capacity and sold out of current capacity. The capacity ramp is a reflection of their $7-$9B ARR estimate.

Again they can contract more and increase their ARR and I'd expect them to sell out again, especially with Antrophic building $50B DCs and $GOOGL building $40B DCs just this past week.

@aleabitoreddit What's your take on the maximum capacity?

I feel that it's good for $NBIS, but  just as a simple observation, if they are max capacity now, then as long as new data centers aren't being opened in an extremely rapid pace, then their revenue won't grow as aggressively estimated?


Summary: Long VIRT via calls + shares; asymmetric volatility hedge at ~6.6x forward P/E with buyback support and upside in both low- and high-VIX scenarios.

As you know, I do value investing too like with Upwork  (+52% in 2 months, P/E 7-> 11.5).

An interesting stock is $VIRT as an asymmetrical volatility hedge, a stock barely anyone talks about. Clean asymmetry to balance $IREN / $NBIS.

6.6 forward p/e, 5.38b MC, Virtu ~ Citadel, and does market making for a large percentage of retail orders.

Current price: $35.19

Again, nobody is really talks about this stock, so I like testing my a new thesis against the market sometimes. I could be wrong and would love feedback too!

This is a light DD on why I'm building light call + share positions:

1/ Rate cuts don’t nuke earnings. Virtu’s term loans are floating (financing +2.5%). total $1.545B. −75 bps ≈ ~12M yr interest savings (not all funding prices down but most are floating tho)

2/ Using Q2 as an anchor (EPS $1.65 / adj $1.53; NI ~$293M; rev ~44% YoY).

If we est EPS 10–12% for lower VIX + ~2.6% for net rate drag -> $1.31–$1.34 EPS/qtr -> $5.22–$5.35 next 12 months

$35.21 / $5.35 = 6.58x forward p/e
$35.21 / $5.22 = 6.74x forward p/e

Even if we overshoot because of good Q2 quarter as an anchor without rate cuts, EPS $4.78 -> 7.4× forward p/e, is still extremely good.

Other websites like Value Investing estimate forward p/e to be 6.99 - 8 forward p/e.

3/ There's ~$303M authorization remaining for buybacks off a small 5.2B marketcap.

If vol normalizes or spikes, expect both EPS and the multiple to lift from today’s ~6–7×. If not, it's undervalued and you can sit back with buybacks.

IN my opinion Virtu is a great asymmetrical hedge. If VIX stays low and we get rate cuts, VIRT is undervalued + goes up anyway or stays flat/slightly down, other equities go up, and it serves its hedging case. The Nov 2025 market-structure changes probably is the larger risk to payment order flow, which might create some headwind.

Regardless VIX increases and other equities go down, VIRT would get re-rated and goes up.

I just see risk/reward being good at these levels so bought Calls. Would recommend shares instead.

Starter positions: Call options for Mar 2026 (low 30 IV at entry).


Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS. Space ( $RKLB ) -> SpaceX just got valued at $800B from $350B. Rocketlab will grow into SpaceX's prev valuation from $26B

Summary: Long RKLB (grow into SpaceX's prior $350B valuation) and NBIS (Avride alone worth more than current market cap; short sellers mispricing it).

The market is mispricing the #2 players in the biggest sectors on Earth.

My thesis on $RKLB = $NBIS Avride

1. Space ( $RKLB ) -> SpaceX just got valued at $800B from $350B. Rocketlab will grow into SpaceX's prev valuation from $26B

It's just a matter of time.

2. Robotaxis ( $NBIS ) Waymo went from $45B → $200B in 1 year. $NBIS Avride is going to grow into Waymo's previous valuation from $6B.

It's just a matter of time, whether that's 1 year or 4 years from now.

And here is the thing with $NBIS: Avride is just one subsidiary out of multiple, and this company alone could be worth more than the entire market cap today in 2 years.

Both the market and short sellers misprice the fact that Nebius owns the fastest growing and hottest sector companies on Earth, all growing 100%+ Y/Y.

Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS.

A short seller firm @Hedgeye is now shorting Nebius $NBIS. The stock price is now $97.8.

Their claim? Nebius is Coreweave 2.0.

Coreweave [ $CRWV ]:

- Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI.

- $1.8B in cash left

-


Long $RKLB, Long $NBIS. Avride is just one subsidiary out of multiple, and this company alone could be worth more than the entire market cap today in 2 years


Summary: Long NBIS long-term on structural full-stack margin superiority over bare-metal rivals; also short-term bullish on crypto miners pivoting to AI (IREN, WULF, CIFR).

Great points! But...

You did base your thesis off misunderstanding gaap vs. non-gaap... which could be confusing to non-accountants and other people on X.

$IREN reported non-GAAP and $NBIS GAAP when you look at hardware-segment profit to full-stack AWS margins.

The 92% percent was non-GAAP, hardware-specific profit metric that systematically excludes depreciation, data-center overhead, network expenses, support, etc. Hardware Profit Margin is typically calculated solely by deducting direct electricity costs from revenue, ignoring the components of true COGS GAAP. And when you do reporting, COGS omissions and accounting principles matter (eg. why crypto firms have like $MSTR wildly different numbers from crypto reporting like ASU 2023-08, so you don’t compare revenue with crypto holdings to Robinhood).

Meanwhile $NBIS 71.2% gross margins was GAAP and includes colocation fees as part of 29% cost of revenue. So when you look into EBIT margins for the full picture, $NBIS (~30%) is vastly higher because full stack drives profitability. When $IREN scales to the $500M ARR target, they’re forced to incorporate realistic deprecation, data center costs, network expenses, and operations. If you normalize both under consistent accounting, $NBIS’s full-stack model already operates 15–25 points higher in true margin spread.

You’re right that hyperscale clients bring their own Type-1 stack. BUT... I’ve said this again to other $IREN posts that keep side-stepping this point.

Once again, Nebius’s Type-2 layer isn't for customer-facing features, it’s optimizing internal OPEX. If enterprises bring their own Type 1 (K8s/Ray), Nebius's internal orchestration (Type 2) still drives its own margins up. That's OPEX moat, it's not what customers use, it's about how efficiently you run the fleet. Think of it like AWS’s Nitro hypervisor but central to how AWS drives >80% utilization and minimal human ops. Nebius’s in-house control plane automates GPU scheduling, telemetry, and firmware lifecycles across mixed SKUs. Every percentage point of utilization is ~1-1.5 points of gross margin expansion. Nebius's in-house orchestration lowers their operating cost base and increases utilization, regardless of whether customers bring their own stack, so it’s not quite one or the other.

Long-term utilization efficiency and automation compound faster than cheap power/capacity and $NBIS full stack drives higher margins long term, while others face margin compression on a race to the ground. As $NBIS scales, the incremental cost of their software proficiency approaches zero, structurally driving margins higher. Conversely, $IREN's dependency model means that as they scale, the licensing fees (3–8% of revenue if you we go with your figure) plus the necessary, unquantified SRE operational costs will remain a permanent drag on profitability, preventing the firm from achieving $NBIS's structural margin ceiling longer on. Licensing costs for outsourced Type 2 solutions are low like your 3-8% figure, but the "20–30%" figure is highly relevant when viewed as overhead.

.Going back to GAAP-non-gaap, once $IREN is forced to recognize full GAAP costs at scale, the inevitable 15–30 point margin delta against $NBIS will materialize. I’d agree with you that short-term capacity and infrastructure is a great advantage today, which is why I’m still bullish crypto miners pivoting like $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR, but the software moat during execution, would vastly outperform bare mental infrastructure in the longer term when it comes to converting revenue to profit (and this is pretending $NBIS can’t scale up infra, which they can).

$IREN current advantage is physical integration and cheap capacity, it’s capex-heavy, and subject to power-market tightening. $NBIS advantage is OPEX leverage. $NBIS higher margins is an economic inevitability in a years time when rooted in full stack AWS-like margins, while margin delta isn't collapsing as others race to the bottom, it's widening as scale hits.

Cheap power wins next quarter, efficient orchestration becomes the next AWS.

---

@Agrippa_Inv Also not trying to make fun of $IREN retail for confusing GAAP vs non-GAAP when talking about margins then making a whole post surroudning that.

It's genuinely difficult if you don't do quarterly financial reports, but there's valid points on there about infrastructure/power.


I'm still bullish crypto miners pivoting like $IREN, $WULF, $CIFR


Summary: Expects imminent US policy announcement to drive Bitcoin/IBIT higher via government accumulation; follow DJT buying lead.

🚿thoughts: Not surprised if the US announcement in 2 days changes US policy to inflate Bitcoin $IBIT prices by acquiring more.

Trump just bought 300m in Bitcoin calls today along with 2B in Bitcoin for his $DJT company.

DJT is the new Nancy Pelosi, just follow the lead.

On the $IBIT WSB trade,  sitting on $44K+ or so unrealized profit after Friday's 3% drop.

$6557+ in realized profit just from selling covered calls in 2 months.

Same rate would be ~157K+ over 2 years.  Low risk, asymmetric upside, esp with $DJT buying 2B+ worth. https://t.co/BPa8uSvV1s


Summary: Author reverts HOOD to sell; bearish after recent 20% run-up.

@NateWGlass Ur right I'd move to sell lol. It if you're holding it currently might as well keep it for long term capital gains + pull a $PLTR.

@aleabitoreddit What made you upgrade $HOOD to a hold from when you had it at a sell when it was 20% cheaper on Monday?


Summary: Rotated profits into NBIS via neocloud sector play; live long position.

Yeah so $FLNC, $SEI, $TE are beneficiaries of data center buildout. Aside from the others, I'm actually down right now ~30% on T1 Energy calls though after the $70M dilution news, but holding a bit longer since it's a decent segment basket for energy.

Lot of the recent news is omega bullish too for energy so happy mid term hold.

Especially with Trump taking stakes in Quantum, Critical Minerals, and possibly American made energy like $TE.

I personally just moved profits from miners -> neocloud sector rotation into $NBIS, not other segments.

@aleabitoreddit At what point do you start rotating profits from some of the energy stocks you mentioned ($FLNC, $SEI, $TE, etc) into some of your higher conviction plays?


Summary: Bullish ASHM and CVX on expected re-rate as US shifts to Venezuela nation-building mode faster than expected.

Great observation. I made a similar point earlier where it might take ~3 months + to topple the defense minster Vladimir Lopez and FANB.

However, from Trump's comments on the United States control over Venezuela, $ASHM, $CVX, and others will likely see the benefit + re-rate heavily since it does look like we're shifting to nation-building mode faster than expected.

@aleabitoreddit The regime is not toppled yet. Maduro was not the regime.


Summary: Long BTC/IBIT via 2026-2027 LEAPS on low IV, USD inflation, rising global money supply, and post-halving rally cycle; covered calls fund the position.

Seriously though $IBIT $BTC 2026-2027 Leaps have huge upside

Very low IV (44-55), new bills inflated USD by 10-11%, global monetary supply increasing, historical rallies Jul/August one year after halving.

Meanwhile, selling BTC CCs into weekly high IV = profit despite theta

---

Polymarket also is pricing in 76% odds of Bitcoin reaching $120k this year, so even if Bitcoin only goes up 10% after a few months you still make a lot from leverage + covered calls.

July/August is usually the best time to buy before Sept weakness then rebuy Nov/Dec.


$IBIT $BTC 2026-2027 Leaps have huge upside. Very low IV (44-55), new bills inflated USD by 10-11%, global monetary supply increasing, historical rallies Jul/August one year after halving


Summary: 5-year growth allocation: 50% Bitcoin, 50% Rocket Lab.

@SebastianS79509 @rocket5010 50% Bitcoin | 50% RKLB

@aleabitoreddit @rocket5010 Serenity, if you had 1 million to invest today for 5 years with a focus on growth but still want to sleep well at night, how would you invest it?


Summary: Bullish both OSS (defense backlog + $1.5T spend) and AXTI (critical single point of failure for Western AI buildout).

I don't want subscribers or want to sell anything to followers!

Made my profile out of pure interest testing my own thesis against the markets and getting fulfillment in helping others too.

But to answer your question $OSS and $AXTI are way too different stocks.

There's $1.5T US Gov spending into defense which helps $OSS a LOT. Hard to imagine when they're already backlogged.

Then $AXTI is single point of failure for the Western AI buildout.

Both are incredibly interesting, so I wouldn't say one is better than the other.

@aleabitoreddit wow ! Is OSS better or AXTI?  why don’t you have subscribe button? i would subscribe to you !!


$AXTI is single point of failure for the Western AI buildout.


Summary: ETOR at ~3.9x EV/FCF with $1.2B cash looks deeply undervalued vs Walmart at 42x P/E; implied bullish.

$ETOR is trading at ~3.9x EV/FCF just putting that out there.

$2.6B MC, $1.2B of it is in cash.

Then they’re doing est. $350-$380m FCF for 2026, modeling 1% interest rate cuts.

And growing too.

Valuation seems a bit absurd when you have Walmart out there at 42.2 p/e. https://t.co/1k57wE5juP


Summary: Long LTC (1 month), long NBIS/TSM (1 year); bearish ETH and ALAB as overvalued; SG needs time.

@DanielTan64198 Yeah $LTC is great for the next month!

 $NBIS / $TSM is amazing over the next year. I still think $ETH / $ALAB is a bit overvalued at this point so you closed at a good time.

$SG might need a bit of time to wait.

@aleabitoreddit ALAB, CRDO were the top two for me that I've closed for now.

Still in UPWK, HIMS, OSCR, been in UNH, and followed your recent callouts for NBIS and TSM. Will jump in a tiny bit into LTC this week with money I trimmed from an ETH position.


$NBIS / $TSM is amazing over the next year


$ETH / $ALAB is a bit overvalued at this point


Summary: Four high-conviction longs: RKLB, NBIS, BTC, TSM; prior longs ALAB and HOOD already ramped so risk/reward less attractive now.

@halldj00 $RKLB $NBIS, $BTC, $TSM are the only four off the top of my head.

Before it was $ALAB <$100, $HOOD $20 but they already ramped up too fast so risk/reward isn't as good now.

@aleabitoreddit Very exciting times for Nebius 🙌. What are your other high conviction longs?


Summary: Long VIRT; still extremely undervalued despite lower-than-hoped VIX spike, with high volatility correlation as core thesis.

@jamiemints VIX didn’t spike as much as I hoped during government shutdown and now we have two more rate cuts projected. Volatility + $VIRT are highly correlated.

It was the ideal hedge in case markets ended up tanking for two weeks.

Still extremely undervalued.

@aleabitoreddit I thought previously $VIRT was a strong buy. It is a buy now. Why ?


Summary: Long NBIS: highest neocloud gross margins + pricing power translate to capital inflows in ~6 months as execution beats speculation.

I was talking about $NBIS internal moat on reducing opex a ton + increased margins. This translates to pricing power since they can charge less + make more + higher EBITDA they can use for acquisitions + investments (eg. clickhouse)

Oracle is ongoing with their buildout and it turned out to lose them $100m+ as per TI. We'll likely see worse gross margins on miners pivoting (CRWV spent years on building out their stack + billions on acquisition) and money flow back into Nebius when it comes to execution in 6 months time vs. speculation currently.

$NBIS -> highest gross margins out of any Neocloud.

@aleabitoreddit What is the moat $NBIS posses over others? What makes the customer stick with them if another neocloud undercuts them in pricing?


Summary: Long AMD on high upside potential and frontier-model utility validation; long HOOD as a generational company with high conviction long-term.

Both good longs, $AMD has extremely high upside potential (just looking at $NVDA's marketcap) and Sam Altman/Elon confirming AMD has high utility for frontier models is extremely positive.

$HOOD generational company. High conviction long term. Short-term I'd argue it's a tad overvalued like $RKLB.

@aleabitoreddit what do you think about $AMD and $HOOD?


$HOOD generational company. High conviction long term


Summary: Neocloud sector (NBIS, IREN, CIFR) at sentiment lows; author calls current levels the ideal entry point.

$NBIS ATM offering would probably be around for a long time given the size.

I really hope $NBIS management does this strategically and not during periods of short selling. Shareholders are just trusting management not to endlessly dilute + add selling pressure at this point.

The $80 stock price is even post-MSCI inflows too.

$NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR and other sentiment for Neocloud sector is extremely low so probably this was the ideal time to buy if you still have capital.


$NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR and other sentiment for Neocloud sector is extremely low so probably this was the ideal time to buy if you still have capital


I do think market is pricing this wrong. $ETOR is similar to $UPWK with large cash positions + profitable. But it's growing at $IBKR rates 20%+ y/y but extremely low market cap.

Summary: Bullish ETOR: market mispricing a profitable, cash-rich company growing 20%+ y/y at a very low market cap.

If you look at my history, I usually buy stuff at the very bottom like $GOOGL or short term bottom like with $UPWK when everyone thinks the company will fail.

$ETOR is similar to $UPWK with large cash positions + profitable. But it's growing at $IBKR rates 20%+ y/y but extremely low market cap.

Hard to trade against sentiment sometimes, but I do think market is pricing this wrong.

@aleabitoreddit @ARKInvest Maybe the market takes into account that retail doesn't like the fact that its an israely company. I put my etoro position into rocketlab. Feel like etoro is not going anywhere. Might hob back in later


Summary: Bullish IREN on $3.4B ARR projection from AI cloud with capacity to scale further into 2026; cautious on margin conversion.

So for $IREN, the amount of comments I've seen bullposting about EPS "beat" are the same people who kept trying to quote 92%+ gross margins on AI HPC. It's literally just accounting framing.

Earnings wise, extremely bullish that they projected $3.4B ARR from AI cloud. IREN has a lot more capacity left-over so they'll likely scale ARR more going into 2026.

But that aside I've always argued capacity -> revenue, but margins/FCF from that revenue is more important. Now it's just a debate how much of that revenue converts into profit, which I don't think we'll know for sure until future earnings come in.

That aside IREN earnings seemed great.

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on $IREN earnings? Seemed like financials were sound, just hit hard by the correction?


~$750K $NBIS shares, ~$100k calls ... they'll probably be $1.25M $NBIS

Summary: Held positions: large NBIS (targeting $1.25M), CIFR (targeting $250K shares), plus smaller IREN and GRRR longs.

@realbaggyboy I posted them a day or two ago if you scroll through my history.

Right now:
~$750K $NBIS shares, ~$100k calls
~$50k $CIFR calls
~$15k $IREN calls + shares
~$100k $GRRR shares.

I move positions around but they'll probably be $1.25M $NBIS and $250k $CIFR shares when I'm done.

@aleabitoreddit Well, what are your positions?


~$50k $CIFR calls ... $250k $CIFR shares when I'm done


Upgrading $TTD to a buy at $38.6 (-67.5% YTD)... I put fair value in $48-$55 range... I see it recovering to $50, ~31.6% upside at these levels within ~4 months

Summary: Upgrading TTD to Buy at $38.6; DCF-based fair value $48–$55, targets $50 recovery (~31.6% upside) within ~4 months as tax-loss selling abates.

Upgrading $TTD to a buy at $38.6 (-67.5% YTD)

The Trade Desk is reasonably priced-slightly undervalued here.

78.1% gross margins, ~2.9B FY revenue 2025, 18% y/y growth, 25% FCF margins.

$1.8B cash, no debt,, 95% customer retention, and $1B in buybacks to offset large stock based compensation. At a $18.67B marketcap.

Definitely not a hyper growth stock like the earlier mention, but it has good value. Fundamentals are slowing, not dying.

I put fair value in $48-$55 range given dcf of $735m fcf, 12% y/y growth, and a discount rate.

I see it recovering to $50, ~31.6% upside at these levels within ~4 months, when EOY tax harvesting stops mid December.

I'm an early investor in hyper-growth companies.

$RKLB for space.

$HOOD for fintech.

$CRDO for connectivity.

But I've never

ever, Ever

seen a company grow forward revenue: 700%+ Y/Y.

and while owning 4 hyper growth subsidiaries concurrently scaling >100% Y/Y each. https://t.co/iqU2jWf41O


My stance changed on $AMD after LLMs like opus 4.5 beat gpt codex models in coding... I've become more bearish on stuff dependent on OpenAI

Summary: Turned bearish on AMD and OpenAI-dependent names (CRWV, ORCL, MSFT) as OpenAI loses LLM dominance and AMD's OpenAI revenue deal looks unfundable.

My stance changed on $AMD after LLMs like opus 4.5 beat gpt codex models in coding, gemini 3 models beat out chatgpt models in image generation, etc.

A large part of my initial bullishness on $AMD was expecting OpenAI to maintain its dominance in LLMs, IPO, and find a way to generate that $1T+ in capex spend that they promised.

But it's becoming less and less likely as time goes on, so I've become more bearish on stuff dependent on OpenAI ( $CRWV, $ORCL, $MSFT etc.)

Large part of $AMD's most recent valuation boost was that tens of billions of dollars revenue deal with OpenAI but I have increasing doubts openai will be able to fund it without getting backstopped by $MSFT or the US gov.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you, curious why you didn't include $AMD?


I've become more bearish on stuff dependent on OpenAI ( $CRWV, $ORCL, $MSFT etc.)


institutions are just accumulating from $NBIS retail with drops like this. Not everyone is on X though so there's probably a lot of panic selling outside from groups that don't understand their fundamentals and forward growth

Summary: Bullish NBIS: institutions accumulating while uninformed retail panic-sells; fundamentals and forward growth misunderstood.

@babyfolio Oh it’s actually 46.3% with some other datasets.

Yeah institutions are just accumulating from $NBIS retail with drops like this. Not everyone is on X though so there’s probably a lot of panic selling outside from groups that don’t understand their fundamentals and forward growth https://t.co/2sRhYsKZ5Q

@aleabitoreddit Absolutely.
Retail is in panic mode and losing shares


Summary: Long ALAB scaling to $500k, $50B+ moonshot target on NVDA-like margins/growth; also bullish CREDO on 180% Y/Y growth and Mag7 customers.

I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot.

NVDA-like profit margins (76%), 144%+ Y/Y growth, customers like NVDA, AWS, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMD at 16B market cap.

Unreal customers + growth/margins. https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB

---

ALAB reminds me of how Nvidia grew (extremely large GPU profit margins) + serving Mag7.

Only similar company out growth wise in semis is probably $CREDO with XAI/AWS/MSFT customers with 180% y/y growth.

Both are amazing investments.


Credo Technology Group trades as CRDO on NASDAQ


Summary: Long NBIS on full-stack moat and margin leadership; bearish CRWV on bad debt, IREN and SLNH on poor pivot margin prospects.

I mention $CRWV in the other comments as the gold standard example crypto miners pivoting to HPC aim for.

Even then $NBIS has higher GPU utilization after CRWV spends billions on software acquisition and years to build it out.

People have too much rose-tinted lens on $IREN and other crypto miners pivoting when $ORCL literally had 14% gross margins. Again CRWV spend billions and years on their software buildout and people expect some $140m micro cap like $SLNH to effectively pivot into good margins

Capacity leads to higher potential revenue but it doesn’t mean much if their margins are small. Full stack + software orchestration + customer diversity is the moat and why $NBIS will likely come out on top in terms of margins.
(Also didn’t like $CRWV since their bad debt eats into margins too. $NBIS convertible note structure 40%+ OTM is the way to go)

@aleabitoreddit Not one mention of $CRWV ?  They don’t seem to get much attention on X yet seem to be leading the pack at the moment 🤔


didn't like $CRWV since their bad debt eats into margins too


People have too much rose-tinted lens on $IREN and other crypto miners pivoting


people expect some $140m micro cap like $SLNH to effectively pivot into good margins


Summary: Long NBIS: market severely undervalues sum-of-parts including Avride autonomous vehicle division + Clickhouse; $300B+ opportunity competing vs Waymo/Tesla at scale.

I've seen posts about Avride but they're mainly around the small delivery robots! The real value comes from the self-driving FSD level 4 division that $NBIS has been developing since 2017.

People namedrop Clickhouse a the golden egg, but the  $300B+ dollar opportunity is with Avride + $UBER  at scale competing vs Waymo / $TSLA.

Wanted to point out the asymmetrical upside with $NBIS by doing a deeper dive about sum of parts that the market severely, severely undervalues.

It's not just "valued at $X" and slash a 40% discount on it, it's also about to grow at extremely absurd rates like their core business.

$NBIS great post on Avride,  an autonomous vehicle company that develops and operates self-driving cars and delivery robots, valued at $6B.

Nebius owns 83% of Avride


Summary: Bullish NBIS (25B mktcap misaligned with contracted revenue), CRWV, and NVDA as neocloud providers protect GPU moat against hyperscaler in-house competition.

That's the same 4T+ thesis with $NVDA and their GPUs/ASICs (Google Cloud TPUs, AWS Trainium) when hyperscalers could replace Nvidia.

Same applies to $NBIS. MSFT wouldn't sign a 17B 5 year contract if they could build it out themselves this fast.

If you read my DD, NBIS, $CRWV are Nvda's strategic solution to keeping their moat.

CRWV, NBIS helps keep hyperscalers from having all the leverage + prevent Azure, others from consolidating compute and compressing margins down the road.

NBIS helps maintain NVDA's moat and why hundreds of billions contracted revenue is already starting to flow from mag7 to the new neocloud providers. 25B marketcap does not align to forward revenue.

@aleabitoreddit Lol big tech are only "customers" temporarily until they have their own capacity built out.


$CRWV are Nvda's strategic solution to keeping their moat


$NVDA and their GPUs/ASICs... Same applies to $NBIS


Nebius ( $NBIS ): $3B $META deal / $8B forward ARR... markets are still panic selling names... despite record forward revenue growth... when the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it's just a matter of time and execution

Summary: AI high-beta names like NBIS, WULF, IREN, CIFR, CRDO are panic-sold despite strong fundamentals; author argues the selloff is fear-driven and prices will recover as forward growth supports valuations.

We're seeing a sector crash in high-beta AI stocks, with  names down 30-45%+ in 1M & 10%+ today.

This includes direct beneficiaries of Mag7 Capex :

- Nebius ( $NBIS ): $3B $META deal / $8B forward ARR.

- TeraWulf ( $WULF ):  <$50B Antrophic DC + JV FS/ $GOOGL

- Iren ( $IREN ): $9B $MSFT HPC

- Cipher ( $CIFR ): 15Y $5.5 billion w/ $AMZN.

that improved their fundamentals in this past month alone.

But markets are still panic selling names from $CRDO (-10.33% 1D) to $CIFR (-7.28% 1D) despite record forward revenue growth.

This is driven over fears from macro (shutdown, Dec rate cut, corporate bond spreads, etc) and false (but nuanced) institutional claims eg. Burry on GPU depreciation, rather than individual fundamentals.

This wipes away froth from the speculative parts of the AI sector such as $OKLO (energy, -37% 1M), but higher-margin growth names get caught together with it.

I've said this before, but this reminds me of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a rally to $150. Or when $ALAB sold off from $100 to $50 off all earnings beats, then rallied to $245.

Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets, especially with “AI bubble” fears like what's happening now.

But when the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.

If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction.

Remember this:

$NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins.

Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and https://t.co/HmuI6I3eEi


TeraWulf ( $WULF ): <$50B Antrophic DC + JV FS/ $GOOGL... markets are still panic selling names... despite record forward revenue growth


Iren ( $IREN ): $9B $MSFT HPC... markets are still panic selling names... despite record forward revenue growth


Cipher ( $CIFR ): 15Y $5.5 billion w/ $AMZN... markets are still panic selling names from $CRDO (-10.33% 1D) to $CIFR (-7.28% 1D) despite record forward revenue growth


markets are still panic selling names from $CRDO (-10.33% 1D) to $CIFR (-7.28% 1D) despite record forward revenue growth


Summary: Bullish ORCL after dip; OpenAI deals make it a great buy, expects face-ripping rally similar to AVGO pattern.

@__visionxry__ Reminds me of $AVGO earnings, spikes, dips for like a month, then face ripping rally.

Probably more influenced by options rather than fundamentals at this point.

If we go at face value of OpenAI deals, $ORCL is a great buy

@aleabitoreddit What do you think of $ORCL after the dip these last few weeks


Summary: Long small caps/Russell 2000 into year-end 2025 on triple Fed rate cut + seasonal tailwinds; author urges frontrunning institutional rotation now.

⚡Why This Triple Rate Cut Near Year-End 2025 Is a ONCE-IN-A-DECADE OPPORTUNITY

100% read this if you're a trader:

We've only had 3 events like this in 25 years: (2001, 2008–09, 2020).

Here's what's history shows:

1⃣  With a triple rate cut, growth and small caps tend to surge as cheaper money and debt easing spark risk appetite.

 2⃣ On top of rate cuts, November–December is also one of the strongest periods for equities. We're approaching that period along with frontrunning.

3⃣  Institutions are only now adjusting to yesterday’s Fed surprise, rotating into growth assets and the Russell 2000 (up 2%+).

Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps.

You now have a rare chance to frontrun that flow and reposition your portfolio starting today.


Floods of liquidity will eventually flow into growth stocks and small caps


Summary: Bullish SPY +10–15% over next year on triple Fed rate cut projection + Nov-Dec seasonality; also bullish US small caps/growth.

@sigmazerocap Nothing bad about risk management, but we just got a triple rate cut projection from the last fed meeting.

This is once-in-awhile opportunity for small caps/growth stocks combined with (Nov-Dec) seasonality.

SPY average +10% to +15%, 1 year later.

Have gone to 25% cash - first time in 3 years (yes I’m always full invested). I’m up way above my self-retirement target and realized there’s no need to be as greedy even if I miss out on some gains.


once-in-awhile opportunity for small caps/growth stocks combined with (Nov-Dec) seasonality


Summary: Bullish on photonics supply chain — AAOI, MRVL, POET, LITE, COHR, AXTI — as bottlenecks emerge like HBM/lithium cycles; demand ramp into 2026-2027.

Agreed, for traders, this should be an interesting opportunity like Lithium in 2021 when EVs came about or HBM currently with Sk Hynix and Micron if people recognized the bottlenecks early.

Tons of opportunity ($AAOI only up 2.9% YTD despite new hyperscaler orders. Tied to hyperscaler deployments like Maia/Tranium).

$MRVL with extreme demand but mainly in q4 2026, into 2027 from Maia, down 22% YTD. And $POET as an indirect beneficiary of $MRVL ramp too.

Shortages throughout the entire supply chain with InP substrates. $GOOGL ramping up TPU which benefits $LITE and vertical integration + record backlog from $COHR

Extremely absurd players like $AXTI with a $700m marketcap basically being the single point of failure for the future AI ramp. Not quite sure how you place a value on that lol.

$COHR, $LITE and substrate providers are hitting the capacity limits now. We’ll see how much time it takes for his to go to the extremes like memory.

This post is FULL of valuable insight

It's clear that there is so much interest in Photonics

If you share that interest I highly recommend saving this post I tagged and coming back to the comments over time

So far I have covered topics/companies including:

$AXTI and the InP


$MRVL with extreme demand but mainly in q4 2026, into 2027 from Maia, down 22% YTD


$POET as an indirect beneficiary of $MRVL ramp too

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ


$GOOGL ramping up TPU which benefits $LITE and vertical integration + record backlog from $COHR


$AXTI with a $700m marketcap basically being the single point of failure for the future AI ramp


Summary: Snap deserves a re-rating to $10+; still prefers other stocks but raises floor view.

@cmachdop Thanks, thought I'd have some fun with this since it's an update $SNAP needed to do from day 1.

Would still recommend other stocks over Snapchat still but it does deserve a re-rating to $10+ imo

@aleabitoreddit Thank you for your time to teach us and bring us such valuable information.


I'd say it's likely if there's another rate cut in December and more positive macro developments

Summary: Thinks NBIS recovery to ~$130 by January is likely given a December rate cut and positive macro developments.

Well, $NBIS went from $140 to $94 to $130 in the span of 2-3 weeks. If it can drop 10% a day it can go up 10% a day too.

But seeing a stock crash 34% in a short amount of time is never fun.

I’d say it’s likely if there’s another rate cut in December and more positive macro developments. But odds dropped from 73% to 53%.

@aleabitoreddit Is there a realistic path for NBIS to recover to around 130 by Jan? Kinda feels like a recovery from here is going to take a while


Summary: Long NBIS to $200 within 5 months, expects another PT raise in March.

@pepemoonboy That's the spirit! I'm still convinced $200 in 5 months and they'll raise the PT again in March.!

Loaded up on more $NBIS.

Nebius Group stock price target raised to $206 from $77 at Northland.

Feels like this one is getting ready to run.

NFA https://t.co/voQifFxi4e


Summary: Bullish NBIS from current levels; hard to see it not rising.

@12345tgrf I mean if I had to full port something it would be $NBIS.

Depends on your risk tolerance, but share wise it's hard to see it ever not rising from these levels.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for the reply, I’ll be going in full port with shares and a few leaps - as an 18yo college student I can afford to lose it lol. Yolo right?


Summary: SPEED Act advancement is the biggest de-risking event for Neocloud sector this year; bullish NBIS, CRWV, IREN on compressed DC timelines, pulled-forward revenue, and FCF acceleration; secondary longs CIFR and WULF on guaranteed power demand.

Just now, the SPEED Act ADVANCES in the House.

This is the single biggest de-risking bill/event for the Neocloud sector ( $NBIS, $CRWV, $IREN) this year.

Here's why and a rundown:

The U.S. GOVERNMENT is set to support the AI data center buildout from Oracle down to Nebius on national security grounds for US vs China.

Oracle and CoreWeave recently dropped 40%+ (tanking $NBIS $140 -> $79, $IREN $80 -> 35, $CIFR, $24 -> $14 as well) on three core fears:

1. DC Delays & Deferred Revenue
2. Unsustainable CapEx → No FCF
3. OpenAI Contagion/Backlog.

The Speed Act and US Government intervention fixes bear-case points for data center buildout delays and addresses utilization lag profitability issues (margins).

#1 DC Delays & Deferred Revenue

Bear Thesis: Multi-year permitting delays (NEPA, transmission) turned high-value contracts into deferred revenue risk. $CRWV explicitly cited vendor delays for lowering guidance and tanked on earnings shifting a large portion of revenue to from Q1 Q2 2026.

The alpha if the Speed Act passes:

Mandatory Speed and Litigation Shields.

- The Speed Act mandates strict, non-negotiable deadlines (often 1-2 years) for federal environmental and regulatory reviews.

- The Litigation Shield: The bill drastically shortens the statute of limitations for filing lawsuits against approved permits (e.g., to 150 days) and instructs courts to allow DC buildout to continue even if a permit is temporarily challenged).

The Result: The timeline from contract signing to "GPUs on racks -> revenue flowing" is now compressed and politically de-risked by the Federal Government.

Deferred revenue is pulled forward and fixes delays and deferred profitability/revenue that plagued $CRWV, $APLD, and the Neocloud sector.

#2: Unsustainable CapEx -> No FCF from monetizing the assets

Bear Thesis: Companies were spending billions on GPUs and construction ( $ORCL's capex is massive) with utilization drag (from the point of purchasing the GPUs to monetization) largely affecting profitability and FCF.

This also largely affects AI Cloud vendors (lacking power to turn monetize the GPUs/capex).

Again This forced companies to take a massive write-down risk due to Utilization Drag (the time the GPU sits idle while the clock runs on depreciation/power-up). This drag is HUGE for profitability on DC segments, as cited in The Information reports on $ORCL's razor-thin AI margins.

The SPEED Act and the US Government intervention directly de-risks CapEx as the legislative mandate for speed (Fix #1) effectively guarantees that power infrastructure will arrive within a defined, short timeline.

This certainty allows $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN to time the purchase and deployment of billions in GPUs with high confidence that the assets will begin monetizing immediately upon arrival as well as accelerates FCF from reducing utilization drags.

This structural change flows down the entire industry. It instantly de-risks the major AI Cloud vendors ($AMZN, $MSFT, $ORCL) who can now guarantee their capacity, and it guarantees demand for the Colo/Infra/Energy providers ( $CIFR, $WULF, and others) whose core business is supplying that power capacity.

The bear case on capex -> FCF + buildout delay timeline has now directly addressed with the Speed ACT.

Now the US government is set accelerate companies like $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN as AI Datacenters is now placed on the forefront of the AI national security battle between the United States and China.

Whether it passes legislation in the House is what every investor should be watching, but if does, this is one of the largest (not-talked about) tailwinds for the Neocloud /AI Decenter buildout.

Never thought I’d see $NBIS at $80 or $IREN at $35 again.

They’re both trading a lot lower than when they first announced Mag7 contracts. https://t.co/boqDYeyXzL


The SPEED Act and US Government intervention fixes bear-case points for data center buildout delays and addresses utilization lag profitability issues


it guarantees demand for the Colo/Infra/Energy providers ( $CIFR, $WULF, and others) whose core business is supplying that power capacity


Summary: Bought LPTH, AIRO, and VLN on today's dip; live long positions in all three.

@MRonvelwala I personally bought $LPTH and $AIRO on 4% drop today and $VLN on the -8% drop.

Looks like SPY is down -.8% so lot of good opportunities out there from fear.

@aleabitoreddit Any new plays this week? Itching to make money


Summary: Bullish LPTH on broad non-defense applications and potential $10B+ valuation if domestic germanium substitution accelerates.

$LPTH can supply everything that requires germanium in other sectors like cameras for FSD, space satellites, machine vision for robotics, and everything.

They’re just backlogged in the defense sector for stinger missiles to ghost drones, which takes priority.

Could easily be $10B+ if US companies start using black diamond instead of germanium glass

@aleabitoreddit Did some basic digging here and honestly it looks very compelling.  Wish it wasn't up 4X the last 6 months already.

Are the other applications outside of defense?


I personally bought because I thought it shouldn't trade close to 1:1 with assets/MC. And even after Friday it's close to 2 EV/revenue while others trade 14-18, given its gross margins are close to 70%

Summary: Long VLN; trades at ~2x EV/revenue vs peers at 14-18x with ~70% gross margins, seen as deeply undervalued.

Come to your own conclusion on $VLN!

I personally bought because I thought it shouldn’t trade close to 1:1 with assets/MC.

And even after Friday it’s close to 2 EV/revenue while others trade 14-18, given its gross margins are close to 70% (blended margins messes up calculations)

So that’s just my own personal thesis, it’s not for everyone

@aleabitoreddit @MitchMartan98 @Gubloinvestor Would u say its a 100% buy for this week or rather taking something else


Summary: Bullish GAP on good fundamentals and holiday seasonality tailwind.

@camrinneiss First glance, I $GAP since fundamentals are good and it benefits from end of year holiday seasonality like $LULU.

Also I like banana republic cashmere stuff so a bit biased. But obviously need more time to delve into tariff impact a bit more on forward revenue

@aleabitoreddit Talk to me about $GAP I’m bullish


Summary: Holding both AIRO and OSS until EOY in a 10x-potential basket on $1.5T defense spending tailwinds.

A tale of two Department of War stocks $AIRO | $OSS.

Information discovery pays dividends if you couple that with the $1.5T Defense spending tailwinds.

Both up 50%+ since posting a few days ago. I personally plan to hold them until EOY in my 10x potential basket. https://t.co/7N0ExxEq8c


Summary: Mechanically extrapolates Northland's model using new $7-9B ARR guidance to derive a ~$355 PT (+248%) for NBIS.

Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September.

From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT:

~$355.00/share (+248.04%)

off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected

Here's the updated metrics:

Northland Capital Markets 09/24/2025 report, their CY2026 scenario assumed:

ARR: raised from $2-4B
Revenue: $2.3B
Adjusted EBITDA: $907M
EV/Sales multiple: 23.8× for the core AIaaS business.
Shares outstanding: ~290 M
Equity value per share: $205PT

New Nebius fundamentals (Q3 2025 release):

CY2026 ARR ≈ $8 B (midpoint), Revenue ≈ $4.6 B, and proportional EBITDA scaing (~$1.8 B).

Keeping their EV/Sales ≈ 23.8×, new core EV ≈ $4.6 B × 23.8 = $109 B. Add the subsidiaries (≈ $7 B total from Northland’s sum of parts) and net cash (~$0.7 B) -> total equity ≈ $117 B → ~$355 PT

It's a mechanical extrapolation assuming valuation multiples for their analysis, not the analyst updated PT that might change based on dilution/execution risks, etc.

2-3x of $NBIS CY2026 ARR from the analyst's 2-B estimate to the new management guidance midpoint of $8.0 billion mechanically drives the valuation higher

The updated price target is based on a re-run of the DCF model.

Takeaway from $NBIS earnings so far:

Absolute. Blowout. Earnings.

$3B $META deal + Cursor new Enterprise clients on top of $17B with $MSFT just 2 months ago.

$7-9B ARR projection is enormous and blew away any expectation.

 Insanely Strong Buy $116 (including the ATM). https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ


the Western AI buildout might be held at choke point by an obscure $700m company like $AXTI and $SMTOY... two companies hold all the cards

Summary: Bullish AXTI and SMTOY as the two chokepoint suppliers of InP substrates for AI photonics/optical interconnects; single point of failure for 1.6T networking buildout.

That’s what’s so incredibly alarming, that the Western AI buildout might be held at choke point by an obscure $700m company like $AXTI and $SMTOY.

InP substrates were incredibly niche for telecom, but it’s suddenly a national security emergency as it became the material used for the world’s lasers and optional interconnects.

I’m not quite sure the top level vendors realized this or at least didn’t realize the scale of this issue (eg. Signing agreements with $LITE without going deeper into the material suppliers for Lite), as the supply chain is incredibly becoming choke pointed by two companies.

Google’s TPU v7 ramp for example placed an unprecedented strain/dependency on the InP supply chain that simply didn't exist a few months ago, since they use OCS for their chip pods, which is almost all in on photonics.

As we’ve hit the upper limits with copper, the AI industry's reliance on AXTI is essentially a "single point of failure” on some small cap that supplies the materials for everything.

I’m not looking at revenue numbers here, this dependency is just absurd, the 1.6T networking just breaks.

I’m not sure where companies go from here, I’m sure they’ll try and hoard materials or secure multi-year agreements but either way two companies hold all the cards.

@aleabitoreddit for being so essential $AXTI hardly pulls any revenues


Summary: Long LITE (undervalued even at ATHs on ASIC/Blackwell BOM) and LITE-like AAOI (levered to AMZN/MSFT ASICs, sole US InP fab, $2.5B MC) into 2026 photonics cycle.

Yeah $LITE is incredible after seeing how it's in every single ASIC + $NVDA blackwell deployments.

Then once you do BOM analysis and model TPU/GPU deployments, it looks undervalued even at ATHs.

Then there's $AAOI, which is similar to LITE but levered toward AMZN | MSFT ASICs. It's one of the only InP Fabs in US and will scale up depending on how Trainium and Maia do. It's a $2.5B MC too.

Photonics/Memory is going to be extremely crazy in 2026.

@aleabitoreddit Great note on Lumentum.

I'm taking a deeper dive, but i'm already sold.

$LITE


$AAOI, which is similar to LITE but levered toward AMZN | MSFT ASICs. It's one of the only InP Fabs in US and will scale up depending on how Trainium and Maia do. It's a $2.5B MC too.


$AAOI is just a levered long in Trainium and Maia... Esp with rumors $AAOI co-developing by new architecture with Microsoft, they'll likely scale up together... whenever those two kick into gear, we'll likely see more things be re-rated

Summary: Long AAOI as levered play on AWS Trainium/Maia + alleged Microsoft ASIC co-development; re-rating seen as inevitable when production ramps EOY 2026–2027.

Uhh $AAOI is just a levered long in Trainium and Maia, since they’re not involved in TPU/Blackwell unlike $LITE from public info.

Maia was pushed backed to 2026, with ramp up in likely EOY into 2027.

Esp with rumors $AAOI co-developing by new architecture with Microsoft, they’ll likely scale up together.

Anyway whenever those two kick into gear, we’ll likely see more things be re-rated. It seems more of an inevitability given every hyperscaler wants their on asic. But main thing is production ramp/execution on the $AAOI side.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for the analysis..so very long $AAOI?


Summary: IREN to hit $80 before year-end (conservative); NBIS to double to $225+ on neocloud growth.

@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK $80 is an extremely conservative price target given how fast $IREN and these neoclouds are growing.

I'd expect $NBIS at least to double to $225+ so IREN would likely hit $80 before end of year.

@aleabitoreddit Thank u for sharing！Do u think iren will reach 80 dollars at the end of2026？


I'd expect $NBIS at least to double to $225+


Summary: Expects US market reversal and rally Monday on rate-cut frontrunning, offset uncertainty from yen carry trade unwinding.

So the four macro points I talked about was the larger reason for the selloff.

There was a huge amount of option interest expiring last Friday, and my guess post $NVDA earnings was that it was purely algorithmic driven (and still doesn't make much sense).

The larger overhang about the cascading crypto margin liqudations caused from Binance, Rate cut odds changing, AI credit stress, and yen carry trade are the main reasons behind the longer sell-off though.

My guess is market reversal this Monday and repricing in + frontrunning December ratecut after markets bulled Fed into cutting (and after option expirations. However, I don't know how much possible Yen carry trade selloff offsets this.

@aleabitoreddit So you gonna wait to see what happens in markets next couple weeks or you think things have bottomed and ready to turn with QE and rate cut?


Summary: Bullish NBIS on highest normalized margins and sweet-spot positioning; CRWV unprofitability attributed to debt interest, not operations, implying underlying strength.

Again it’s very nuanced and I’m just trying to point out what you might be conflating or misunderstanding.

$NBIS and $CRWV have the highest normalized margins but the reason why $CRWV is unprofitable is because of their large debt interest.

If you remove that from the equation and maintain higher utilization + improve other parts of the multifaceted equation that leads to margin calculations, then that’s where $NBIS sits in that sweet spot was the point I’m making.

@aleabitoreddit You’re making massive logic leaps (in between some accurate statements and lots of condescending ones).

You’re praising Nebius and CoreWeave for their software stack, but then you say if it doesn’t convert to FCF or profit it means nothing… CoreWeave has no profit and…


$CRWV is unprofitable is because of their large debt interest


Summary: Trim ASTS after recovery; still likes LTC and BTC at current prices, wouldn't reduce for NBIS.

@soulbiri1 Lol the portfolio etf above id be comfortable 1.5x margin.

I'd be fine trimming $ASTS after 32% recovery.

I still like $LTC and $BTC at these prices so I wouldn't trim for more $NBIS.

Make sure to sell CC's!

@aleabitoreddit I listened to the voices. I don't generally use margin to invest but my conviction in Lord Aleabito is strong. I just used 500k of margin in Robinhood to follow this Aleabito portfolio, plus recommended weights.

Only adjustments that I made:
-BTC/LTC -> more NBIS
-ASTS -> CRM https://t.co/j6vJWefycU


I still like $LTC and $BTC at these prices so I wouldn't trim


Decent idea to buy say 30% of your position after today's 18.75% drop, then have cost averages down to the low, such as ($11.6). I bought a small amount if you ever want to follow along.

Summary: Recommends re-entering OSCR after 18.75% drop, buying partial position with potential to cost-average lower; author personally bought a small amount.

It's hard to time the exact bottom so if you're re-entering stocks like $OSCR after selling at $22 from $14 after my Reddit DD:

Decent idea to buy say 30% of your position after today's 18.75% drop, then have cost averages down to the low, such as ($11.6). https://t.co/8nh9TLD1Yq

---

Disclosure: I bought a small amount if you ever want to follow along.

But it's always possible for it to drop back to $13 similar to UNH $375 -> $320 -> $250 before recovering, which is why I never recommend full porting on dips like these.


Summary: Bullish NBIS: fundamentals will outweigh mechanical hedging-driven selling; retail panic selling is a mistake.

With $NBIS, retail likely did a lot of CSP + short dated calls from open interest.

When MMs act as the counterpart, it exacerbates any movement. In this case, it amplified downward movement, with large hedge fund likely shorting initially at higher prices (probably timed with The Insider hit piece like with $ORCL and the whole sector short).

There's mechanical hedging from MMs which causes sharply price to drop when Nebius was around $135-$140.

Retail selling their shares after seeing few days of red is just a natural consequence. But it's stupid for retail to sell fundamentals will outweigh any mechanical hedging flows.

I mentioned in my other post that retail panic selling affects price last traded. Institutions are able to accumulate more without affecting open books through dark pools and block trades.

@aleabitoreddit @DeepValueBagger I've been curious because I don't know much about price action, retail vs institutions etc. Is it really retail that's selling? I thought it was mostly algos trying to follow the trend which ends up in exacerbated price movements. In other words it's just bait for retail to sell?


Summary: Still accumulating LTC; believes it is undervalued at current price.

@lunapuma28 @robswainept cost averaging. I think it's undervalued

@aleabitoreddit @robswainept did you sell your LTC? i saw your avg at 112 when you bought


Summary: Highest conviction long NBIS (cost-averaging LEAPs); also long TE on path to 5.2B MC from $700M if it hits half of 2027 EBITDA target.

I have the highest conviction in $NBIS, which is why I'm happy to cost average leaps as much as possible.

I don't have the same sentiment as other energy plays, $TE is probably highest though because if it delivers 1/2 of management EBITDA 2027 target, 8× EBITDA multiple would be 5.2B MC from the current $700m MC.

@aleabitoreddit Do you still hold the same sentiment on some of your energy plays like $TE $FLNC $SEI ?


$TE is probably highest though because if it delivers 1/2 of management EBITDA 2027 target, 8× EBITDA multiple would be 5.2B MC from the current $700m MC


Summary: Bullish CRCL: argues it should be valued far above fintech comps if USDC becomes the de facto digital dollar settlement currency.

Low interest rates does affect $CRCL and this is the main bear case thesis.

However, low interest rates environments would unlock more supply in USDC + more volume/transactional based revenue compared to high interest from treasuries. Circle would need to monetize transactional volume over interest (which makes up 90%+ of their profits)

My argument above is that people shouldn’t value it like a fintech though. If it becomes the digital federal reserve and USDC is the de facto settlement currency of the dollar online, both the network and the issuer is worth way beyond traditional valuations

@aleabitoreddit Do you have any concerns about its business model as interest rates keep dropping?


wouldn't be surprised if I see this at $1B MC in 6 months if the award goes through

Summary: Bullish OSS targeting $1B market cap in 6 months on anticipated sole-source US Army 360 situational awareness contract award.

@bigbull_0410 Yeah $OSS is one of those wait and see for me to see if I get a 1000%+ out of this.

Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if I see this at $1B MC in 6 months if the award goes through.

@aleabitoreddit They are in line for a 360 situational awareness contract with the US Army for ~200M.

Testing was done until end of year 2025 and hopefully we should hear about it soon. Importantly, this is a sole source award ( no competitors)- $OSS will rerate soon


Summary: NBIS still underpriced despite 45%+ bump; MSFT deal not fully reflected in the stock.

@__visionxry__ Yep of course. It just 300%+ their yearly revenue, which is insane.

The 45%+ bump hasn't even fully priced in the deal yet.

@aleabitoreddit You see the big news on NBIS? Multi billion, Multi year long deal with MSFT!


Summary: Long NBIS over IREN: software orchestration moat drives highest asymmetric return; IREN faces large execution/margin risk.

I'd disagree, software orchestration is one of the biggest moats possible, which is why $NBIS > $IREN clear as day for me in terms of asymmetrical upside. But to each their own!

I'd agree IREN has slightly higher potential upside due to scale of GW deployed but way way larger execution risk in terms of margins.

When it comes to future earning reports with $IREN, I'd expect markets to find out the hard way that the orchestration and customer diversity that Nebius has currently is a massive, massive moat.

$ORCL one of the largest compute companies lost $100m+ on their most recent buildout as per TI reporting. This was largely due to software + GPU orchestration + customer base. Internal documents show they had ~14% gross margins (NBIS had 71.2% last quarter).

If the largest hyperscalers can't get it right, and people keep pointing to $CRWV supporting Bitcoin miner pivots (when they spent billions on software aqusitions) and years on the pivot, then it's probably is a big moat that you're underestimating.

Also Software utilization/orchestration matters ~30–70x more than cheap power (did the math in another comment).

Scale of MW/GW deployed leads to higher upside with miners, sure, but there's no point of speculating whether these bitcoin miners can pivot into high margins when we have $NBIS with the highest asymmetrical return and capacity, was my point.

@aleabitoreddit I would argue software stack is not a moat anymore in the AI era.
Without being vertically integrated margins will be $NBIS’s weakness in the long run.
$IREN will be a better play imo.
Anyhow, I’m bullish on both names 🟢🤝🏻🐂
Will go up together as a sector 📈


way way larger execution risk in terms of margins