Summary: Long AXTI: controls InP supply chain pricing as a monopoly post-China export controls; TAM expands from ~$100Ms to $10B+ as hyperscalers have no alternative, making $1.3B mkt cap undervalued.

For Q X P, $AXTI controls both quantity (regulated monopoly) as well as price (monopoly at scale) for the AI buildout with photonics after China's export control on Japan.

The death of a duopoly completely changed any former pricing structure there was.

The TAM of InP was few hundred million because it's a niche telecom product. Now, Google would happily pay billions just so their entire TPU program doesn't stall out. Same goes for Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and others. Then TAM suddenly goes from few hundred million to $10B+.

Again I don't know where this heads, it's impossible to model an extreme scenario that's never happened before (one small cap company controlling two different critical bottlenecks for the trillion AI buildout).

But when the company controls majority of the supply chain as well as price structure of a material used for every hyperscaler to scale out their programs, I place a lot more value on it than $1.3B market cap.

---

^ clarification, $AXTI controls the price. Regarding quantity, that was referring to controlling majority of the InP supply chain.

They have a certain amount of inventory, which obviously is controlled by China for permits.

Point was that can double, triple, capacity, but if you control both the supply chain, you can control pricing.  You can have finite material and increase prices 100%+, 500%, 2000%, and hyperscalers would still pay because there's no alternative.

Even that much increase would only be a few percent increase on TPU cluster BOM because the price was so negligible before.


Summary: Long FLY on NOC co-development reducing execution risk for reusable medium-lift; 5-10x upside potential by 2026-2027; market underpricing NOC's role.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

I wrote about it earlier but a TLDR was $FLY was working with Northrop on reuable medium lift and having $NOC co-developing it would reduce any execution risk.

NOC had working expendable medium-lifts already before Russia-Ukraine war and their supply chain fell apart. NOC + Fly = Working medium lift plug and play med kinda ready to go, they just needed to make it re-usable.

Thesis was Fly can leapfrog building successful small-lift themselves by piggy backing off of Northrop on reusable medium-lift launchers to complete with falcon9 and upside on a 3-4B marketcap could be 5-10x if they got it to work in 2026-2027.

I also didn't think markets were pricing in Northrop executing on this cause they just keep pointing to FLY's failures but, NOC is one of the largest government aerospace contractors.

@aleabitoreddit Have you looked into $FLY's business / trust their capabilities? Skimmed it and was wary of their execution -- would like your view (I remember you saw it as a potential new RKLB)


I also didn't think markets were pricing in Northrop executing on this


Summary: Bearish MQ on singular Square/Cash App dependency risk; bullish DAVE by comparison.

@BarnieTaintpipe I’m aware of them both already. Off the top of my head $MQ not a fan because singular dependency on Square if that was the customer for Cash App. Also they can launch their own card offerings in the future.

$DAVE I liked a lot more

@aleabitoreddit Look at $MQ $DAVE if you want to expand scope of sector. Newer type of fintech cos and products


Summary: Bearish ETH above $4K: L2/blob compression broke value accrual — burn at ATLs despite ecosystem highs, price no longer scales with network usage.

Ethereum's network itself is growing. But the way Vitalik scaled Ethereum pushed economic value away from the asset.

That's the sad economic reality that makes $ETH / $BMNR a terrible investment above $4K (it's a good trade).

L2's weakened value accrual for holders because it doesn't work this way with DA and blockspace (10x usage -> 10x DA fees -> 10x burn). Ecosystem usage hits new highs, yet $ETH burn ATLs is exactly what you look at to show this disparity.

Compressed, low-cost blobs mean that billions in L2 activity translate into only a tiny amount of ETH spent on mainnet

Mainnet is burning tens of eth a day, down from hundreds/thousands a day before EIP-4844. You're right by saying L2s have genuinely changed ETH's value accrual mechanics... by moving it off of ETH.

You can argue collateral asset as a investment option and a shift of value accrual. But the main token economics that originally justified ETH as an investment doesn't exist anymore:

ETH price as an asset no longer scales proportionately with network usage.

@aleabitoreddit @VitalikButerin @fundstrat Fair to say L2s changed the economics, but “$ETH is a terrible investment” feels too strong.

L2s didn’t kill value accrual, they changed its shape:
•Every serious L2 still settles to mainnet and pays for data availability in $ETH. If rollups 10x blockspace demand, L1 DA fees


Summary: Bullish NBIS: fundamentals improved significantly (MSFT deal, MSCI inclusion ~Nov 24, Israel HPC, UK data center) but price unchanged — upside ahead.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Hope you don't get margin called (if you're on margin). Otherwise, recovery on leverage should net higher upside.

$NBIS only had extremely positive changes to the fundamentals since the $MSFT deal but is trading around the same price on the initial announcement pop.

Macro aside:
- Inclusion into MSCI world index fund ~Nov 24th.
- Government AI HPC deals (Israel)
- UK Data center.

There's other minor service launches too like Token Factory but I'd probably put those three above as the biggest changes (latter two for revenue increase, first one for liquidity inflow)

@aleabitoreddit i lost all my ytd gains leveraging nbis… never again


with $CRWV there's short term upside because sell-off was way too much to the $60s

Summary: CRWV short-term bounce from oversold $60s but medium-long bearish on debt; NBIS favored as diversified full-stack without margin-crushing interest.

If you spent just 30 seconds reading the post, you would see I didn't rate $BITF.

With $CRWV there's short term upside because sell-off was way too much to the $60s. But medium-long term they have way too much debt interest.

While $NBIS and $IREN funds through convertibles or little interest cutting into margins every quarter, Coreweave pays over $1.2B+ in annual debt expense interest.

OpenAI also makes up 1/3th of their total backlog, so while they have some defensible hyperscalers ( $META, $MSFT) + $NVDA backstop, building out for OpenAI like $ORCL, presents considerable risk given their lack of revenue + Gemini $GOOGL competition.

So they are F tier despite being a highly rated full-stack offering due to absurd debt interest cutting into margins + large concentration of backlog from OpenAI (contract uncertainty) that don't affect diversified full-stack offerings like $NBIS.

@babyfolio @aleabitoreddit No its not. CRWV = BITF? You must be joking.

Only one example: CRWV was mentioned in the NVDA earnings call, not BITF, not CIFR, not NBIS


medium-long term they have way too much debt interest


don't affect diversified full-stack offerings like $NBIS


Summary: Highest conviction long NBIS on 1Y basis; prefers RKLB for 5Y hold.

@__visionxry__ $NBIS is highest conviction stock I have for a 1 year timeframe.

I'd be more willing to hold $RKLB on a 5Y timeframe.

Holding a year for long term capital gains is smart unless it randomly pulls a $CRWV and goes up 600% in a short amount of time

@aleabitoreddit You still believe in it for the 1Y, 5Y timeframe? I was thinking of holding until long term capital gains at the least


I'd be more willing to hold $RKLB on a 5Y timeframe


Summary: Bullish HOOD on S&P 500 inclusion-driven inflows, new product launch, and banking catalyst; compares upside to PLTR.

$HOOD added to S&P 500.

New product launch on Tuesday and banking coming soon.

Huge money flows coming into Robinhood given market cap soon. Might be PLTR v2.

This is just WSB instincts that go into DD! Some of you probably saw my deleted post guessing inclusion lol https://t.co/h8txi6mQD2

@MilesTa53993799 I’m day trading $HOOD, I’ll adjust based on how it goes https://t.co/kZQxXl0zjr


Summary: Long VLN: algorithmic shorts based on corrupted screener data are wrong; company has 0 debt and $93.5M cash, creating a reversal opportunity as data error gets corrected.

$VLN has 0 debt, $93.5M cash and $11M in inventory.

Almost every algorithm or LLM modeled off of contaminated data from $VLN screeners and data sites thinking they will go under in 1 year from $100m in costs from -$82m inventory burn.

This is still not corrected yet so we saw a ton of algorithmic shorts on Friday.

Only retail on X found out about this early

---

@ENTJ_46 Eg. With opus, ^ they all use contaminated data, and this requires manual review with $VLN https://t.co/wTpg2BTVYn


$SSYS is certification monopoly ... $SSYS benefits robotics at scale ... We've now likely hit the inflection point for robotics

Summary: Long SSYS: certification monopoly + lightweight structural frame supplier to humanoid robotics, now hitting inflection point as companies scale from prototyping.

Amazing question! So here's the timeline and what changed:

-> America first policies after Trump election

-> China-US trade tensions, led to companies going to US supply chains ( $SSYS is certification monopoly) from companies like Bambu.

-> 2024-2025ish, Boston Dynamics pivoted from hydraulic Atlas to electric version -> changed from heavy hydraulics to lightweight structural frames using $SSYS.

-> Other research prototypes from Meta Humanoids to others started following suit.

-> There was no scale on humanoids/robotics in 2024-2025.

-> ChatGPT announced their push into robotics today (they're usually leading the charge, eg. securing memory capacity)

->  We've now likely hit the inflection point for robotics, where all these companies formerly in the prototyping stage (with $SSYS as the lightweight structural frame) are now scaling.

-> $SSYS benefits robotics at scale.

@aleabitoreddit How has the story changed at all?

 These 3d prnting stocks have all been 0s.

But now magically they are important?


Summary: Despite poor management, SNAP is a good investment at current valuation; bullish on value.

Interesting take but I disagree. $SNAP should have just scrapped any AR development (like $META for Metaverse) given how much capex spend it is.

And just went out and say: "We're a social media company" + compete vs Tiktok/Meta by acquiring social media companies like early stage Facebook (instead of hardware ones) with FCF.

$SNAP would have been a $80B+ company by now but the fact they're not producing more FCF after all these years is just incredibly stupid and a testament to how bad the CEO + vision is.

But they did the one thing I wanted Evan to do which was cut GCP costs and monetize memories like ICloud, which they did.

 Even though I think it's a terribly run company I think it's a good investment now for the valuation.

@aleabitoreddit In my view, Snapchat is capable of doing what $META has failed. The Metaverse done the right way.

They invest a lot in AR, and they’re going to announce glasses Q1-Q2 if I remember correctly from latest quarter report.

It’ll be like Pokémon Go mania in 2016 but through various


Summary: Long NBIS; base-case $39B, path to $100B within a year on hyperscaler partnerships and institutional accumulation via dark pools.

This week retail panic sent $NBIS tumbling to $94.

Unfortunately, many retail are outside this community and sold shares in fear (mixed with MM mechanical hedging) based on stock price dropping alone.

In the past two days, Nebius is back up over 17%.

This is why why Conviction + Fundamentals/Knowledge > stock price.

During the drop, institutions quietly stepped in and acquired more from darkpools + other methods.

_

Fundamentally, Nebius was very undervalued. My base-case valuation of $NBIS sits near $39B today, with room to reach $100B within a year with another hyperscaler partnership.

Nebius powers parts of Microsoft Azure and other future hyperscale infrastructure. Institutions know this, and they'll do whatever it takes to grow their ownership in a company at the core of global compute.

If retail doesn't develop conviction in the stock from fundamentals and understand how institutions play the  game, using dark pools, options flow, and to accumulate shares without moving prices, they'll capitulate purely off of fear instead of material changes.

As noted in today’s Seeking Alpha piece "Nebius Pullback, The Smart Money Entry Point":

"WhaleStream reports that approximately $100 million of net inflows were concentrated within the $103.90 area, indicating fresh institutional interest.

This was confirmed by Fintel data (extracted from Nasdaq, FINRA, and Capital IQ),  which records the off-exchange short-volume ratio near 19% and reinforces the thesis of significant Nebius buying through dark  pools by the institutions.

In practice, this supports the view that much  of the Nebius buying is happening quietly through dark pools, as aligned with the observed build-up of call options."

Accumulation is strategic but hidden in plain sight. Don't be shaken off.

Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year:

Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B).

If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027:

Core Business: $31B–$36.5B
Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed)
Midpoint


Summary: Highest-conviction 2-year long on NBIS: 700% bottom-line growth Y/Y, 4 portfolio companies each +100% Y/Y; opportunity-of-a-decade thesis.

Thanks for the feedback, I'll take it to heart and do posts on other stuff as usual!

I posted DD about stuff like $NVDA yesterday but recently as you mentioned it's been mainly about the neocloud sector. I've been focused on it because of how much news there was recently + the huge sell off attracted a lot of attention!

For $NBIS in specific, it was my highest conviction 2 year hold. I just see it as the opportunity of a decade since $NVDA, you don't really see any core company growing its bottom line 700% Y/Y with 4 separate portfolio companies growing 100% Y/Y.

One of which happens to be a super cool self-driving robotaxi company (I'm a fan of Waymo, $TSLA robotaxis).

@aleabitoreddit im curios why your whole X profile became just about neocloud or more in particular nbis. i understand its likely your biggest conviction play i just miss seing your DDs and insights of other companies. that said its obviously your profile and you can do what you want.


Summary: Author calls current growth-stock selloff a buying opportunity, naming NBIS as quality, with KRKNF and ALAB as best buys since April tariff lows; expects Santa Rally recovery.

Markets are seeing a drop in most growth stocks right now.

In the past 5 days:

· Cloudflare [ $NET ]: $192.99 (-15.23%)
· Rocketlab [ $RKLB ]:  $42.50 (-19.35%)
· Iren [ $IREN ]: $46.6 (-28.74%)
· Hims [ $HIMS ]: $35.15 (-15.61%)

have lost their recent gains. Why?

Right now, we're seeing mechanical hedging downward, mixed with live cascading margin liquidations slightly mirroring the crypto markets.

This is mixed with capitulation based on macro with semi-valid concerns from December rate cut odds, lack of data from Gov shutdown, and AI short reports from several hedge funds.

The most important thing to note is that: This is despite  improving fundamentals in many individual stocks.

We've seen companies like:

$NBIS raise ARR guidance from $7-9B from projected analyst $4B marks, and sell off 26.85% this week.

and we've seen

$SNAP lose any gain from post earnings, after blowout revenue guidance from a $400M surprise perplexity deal.

At this point, we're nearing the bottom before the December Santa Rally, with institutions buying up leverage trader Bitcoin liquidations to quality stocks like $NBIS in dark pools/block trades.

If forward growth and fundamentals were slowing, continued selling after this drop would be warranted.

However, if fundamentals are in tact for many growth stock, this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off.

As seen with Robinhood [ $HOOD ] data on popular retail stocks with $IREN, retail is heavily selling the bottom at $45-$50, but bought in at the top post $MSFT deal at $80.

Retail is often the ones to chase buying at the top. But capitulate at the bottom after the drop.

This is the great reset, but not a continued crash leading to a bear market. Stock post-margin liquidations and weak hands moving to long-term investors leads to new highs.

That being said: what high-beta stock do you think is the most sold off right now?

Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left.

This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no:

- Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from  full-stack execution.

- High interest debt that https://t.co/MlQKV7VJc3


this market-wide reset is the best buying opportunity for growth stocks from $KRKNF to $ALAB since the April tariff sell-off

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'


Summary: Long CF Industries: Venezuela attack disrupts Trinidad & Tobago ammonia exports, reducing competition and boosting CF margins.

It’s second order effects, not directly about Venezuela. It encompasses Trinidad & Tobago, which are basically 7m off the coast as the #1 or #2 largest exporter of ammonia in the world.

The attack on Venezuela might disrupt the two, so the $CF fertilizer/producer play increases margins + benefits since their competitors are stuck.

@aleabitoreddit Fertz are the 7th largest export at 1.4% of total notional value of $200m. All of it is exported to neighbouring countries. No reason for fertz to spike whatsoever.


Summary: Bullish on UPWK; sees lot of upside, comfortable holding.

@Lxizny It's a great stock, nothing wrong with holding, lot of upside.

@aleabitoreddit @DeepValueBagger What's your current take on $UPWK? Fundamentals are great, but the momentum is no longer there


I'd say $RKLB and $NBIS next 5 years. I could definitely see Rocketlab at $300B valuation

Summary: Long RKLB ($300B target) and NBIS ($200B target) as safer 10x plays; also long AAOI, WLAC, TE as smaller-cap moonshots over 5 years.

So for a “safer” 10x. I’d say $RKLB and $NBIS next 5 years. I could definitely see Rocketlab at $300B valuation and Nebius at $200B one day.

The chance of a 10x increases the smaller marketcap they are (eg. Sub $2B), and it’s obviously much harder for companies like $HOOD to double in a year.

But for smaller caps, $AAOI, $WLAC, and $TE are those types of moonshots I like to dabble in.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks serenity. Keen to understand if you had to pick three stocks that you think have the highest chance of 10Xing in the next five years, which ones would they be?


I'd say $RKLB and $NBIS next 5 years. I could definitely see Nebius at $200B one day


$AAOI, $WLAC, and $TE are those types of moonshots I like to dabble in


Summary: Bullish NBIS as top Neocloud on margins, defensibility, and full-stack software moat competitors can't replicate.

Fair, there's a lot of hype around Bitcoin miners. My guess is every Neocloud will go up together anyway.

But what ends up on top is execution during ER. $NBIS ends up on top due to margins and defensibility.

Full stack + software orchestration is a misunderstood moat. Even $ORCL couldn't get it right and they lost $100m on buildout.

@aleabitoreddit I still have $iren 2026/1 call and call spread. Will turn into $nbis position after.


Summary: Prefers TSM over AVGO as foundational play for NVDA/AVGO custom ASIC buildout.

@turnandburn07 $AVGO mirrors nvda's ascent with GPUs but for custom  hyperscaler ASICs. It's always hard to buy things at the top, but sometimes they keep going up.

Either way, $TSM serves as the foundation for NVDA, AVGO, etc, so I like the stock the best and I'd prob buy TSM over AVGO

@aleabitoreddit any thoughts on $AVGO in this range?


Summary: Adding NBIS call leaps around $116 open; views it as ridiculously undervalued given new earnings guidance.

@rioferdy838 I'm adding more $NBIS call leaps if price stays around $116 when the market opens. Ridiculously undervalued at these levels given new guidance from earnings report.

@aleabitoreddit Was up 7-8% earlier. Pulling up CRWV, IREN and friends along with it too lol.

Im fully invested in this thing. Thank you @aleabitoreddit for all your analysis and conviction.


Summary: Cautiously bullish KTOS sub $30 but conviction lower than prior RKLB bull case; RKLB remains the higher-conviction long.

I probably can't comment much on defense/energy/battery stocks since it's not my area of expertise. @RJCcapital probably a knows a bit more about energy given how much energy they put in posting about Sydney Sweeney and Duolingo/Antonio.

Jokes aside, directionally energy is popular due to AI buildout. As for defense I was a fan of $KTOS sub $30 when I looked at it but it's hard for me to develop the same bullish conviction I did with $RKLB. Some names like $DPRO, I haven't looked into enough yet, but I'll spend some time to research more of the mentions, so thanks for posting!

@aleabitoreddit I’m balls deep in most of your strong buy stocks, especially in META and NBIS.

Btw what do you think of these defence and energy stocks? Almost all of them have fast growing revenue and have huge upside and low downside potential as per analyst estimates. https://t.co/eLI1BldpDg


it's hard for me to develop the same bullish conviction I did with $RKLB


Summary: Long NBIS on 700%+ Y/Y ARR blowout vs ~$3B analyst estimates; loaded up today. Expects NBIS to outperform CRWV next cycle.

$NBIS exceeded expectations, I haven't seen any analyst model $7-9B ARR, which is just mind blowing growth (700%+ Y/Y).

Indiscriminate selloff right now but:

- Gov shutdown likely ending today
- $NBIS inflow from index inclusion 24th Nov
- Santa rally Dec
-70% rate cut into Dec

FYI the most bullish analysts were projecting ~3B ARR, and Nebius guided 2.5 times that. Fundamentals are detached from stock price right now and I personally loaded up today.

I see Nebius will leapfrogging $CRWV in the next growth/recovery cycle.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting reaction from the market. Like what were the expectations? I think $CRWV crashing took the whole neocloud sector with it.


I see Nebius will leapfrogging $CRWV in the next growth/recovery cycle


Summary: Long OPAD as a smaller-cap adjacent play to OPEN's 1700% rally; rate cuts to boost housing/revenue further support the thesis.

I don't have high confidence in $OPAD or $OPEN + small caps so do so at your own risk!

But I personally just see it's worth the risk reward given OPEN rallying 1700%+ recently and OPAD being a 140m smaller cap adjacent with 29% short interest that hasn't took off yet. (Follow the leader)

It does need to be a $500m market cap to be more mainstream if people were to post about it on WSB though.

3 projected rate cuts does stimulate sales in the housing market and lower borrowing costs helps with inventory + debt -> higher revenue growth, more net profit.

@aleabitoreddit Invested into OPAD because I trust you 😀


OPEN rallying 1700%+ recently and OPAD being a 140m smaller cap adjacent with 29% short interest that hasn't took off yet. (Follow the leader)


Summary: Treats LTC dip as a buying opportunity, citing 95% Polymarket ETF approval odds.

@junyongisusing1 I just see a good buying opportunity. Polymarket actually increased etf approval to 95%.

This was the main event to be looking out for. https://t.co/QB0FIMrUIq

@aleabitoreddit LTC dropped 3% today. Any major concern over this


Summary: Long NBIS $105-110, TSM $170-175, BTC <$100K, ALAB $100-120, AMZN $200-210 as high-conviction dip-buy levels ahead of rate cut.

We are 12 days away from a rate cut (94.1% odds). MMs enjoy times like these to cleanse the option chain.

In terms of levels I’m personally looking out for larger sized leveraged trades:

$NBIS - $105-$110
$TSM - $170-$175
$BTC - ~<$100K
$RKlB - $35-$40
$ALAB - $100-$120
_

Special shoutout to Amazon, which is down 4.6% YTD despite the rally.

$AMZN - $200-$210 ($211 is extremely good now for calls, reminds me of $GOOGL at $145 before the epic rally. Basically around now seems good, but like Google it dropped below levels people expected so might even touch $200)

I’m fine with margin + options on higher conviction stuff, this is just my personal risk tolerance, NFA.

These times are the best to go long on high conviction.

Macro + Dip thoughts Oct 16th:

There's a ton going on, eg. $GLD hitting ATHs, but that's a whole different rabbit-hole on the USD.

Main stock drop today was due to a shock from regional banks, so I'll focus on that.

It's a great buying opportunity on:

Neoclouds with


$AMZN - $200-$210 ($211 is extremely good now for calls


$ETOR valuation looks like a joke at these levels. I ended up buying few hundred thousand worth of myself after doing some slight napkin math calculations. So buying a company at EV/FCF is 3.9x which looks like free real estate.

Summary: Bought ETOR personally; $2.6B market cap with ~$1.2B cash and ~$360M est. 2026 FCF implies 3.9x EV/FCF — deeply undervalued.

Fully agree with the thesis and $NODE purchase. $ETOR valuation looks like a joke at these levels.

I ended up buying few hundred thousand worth of myself after doing some slight napkin math calculations.

$2.6B valuation doesn’t make sense when ~$1.2B of it is cash.

Then they’re bringing in est. $350-$370m FCF in 2026, from some calc (fact 1% interest rate cut)

So buying a company at EV/FCF is 3.9x which looks like free real estate.

We initiated a position in $ETOR in $NODE.

ETOR is a profitable, global retail brokerage with built-in social trading and meaningful balance-sheet float income, not just a crypto trading app.

Shares are now ~55% below the first-day IPO close and ~30% down in the last month, https://t.co/oH3PUkAyb4


Summary: Bullish AMD: OpenAI potentially using AMD GPUs at scale could re-rate it to a trillion-dollar company.

@soulbiri1 This is a share-only ETF!

Also, OpenAI is basically the leader of all foundational AI models.

And if Sam Altman thinks he can use hundreds of billions of dollars worth of $AMD GPUs instead of $NVDA, then AMD might re-rate into a trillion dollar company.

@aleabitoreddit Wow 10 percent for $AMD!! Thats huge, do you think LEAPs are a good idea with that for a little more capital efficiency?


$LPTH is incredible, I don't say this often. I would go super long on this.

Summary: Strongly bullish LPTH; author endorses the Lockheed Martin / NGSRI contract thesis and calls for a large long position.

@WaltzDisneyz $LPTH is incredible, I don’t say this often. I would go super long on this.

@aleabitoreddit $lpth for several reasons, most pressing one is they'll soon lock in +$100M / year as a provider of optics / blackdiamond (germanium) components to Lockheed Martin as part of the NGSRI offering to the US Armed Forces. What's your take?


Summary: Long TSM as the undervalued monopoly underlying all major AI/cloud names; targets $1.8T market cap from $1.3T.

If you're debating $ORCL vs. $AMZN | $GOOGL, $AMD | $AVGO vs. $NVDA, $NBIS vs. $IREN vs. $WYFI vs. $CRWV

It's easy. Just buy $TSM, everything above is dependent on it.

Undervalued and a monopoly, will likely run from $1.3T -> $1.8T MC based on forward growth + capex from ERs.


Summary: Bearish MSTR on long-term chart; ETH called a terrible long above $4K, network usage conflated with price.

@a_little_tailor Zooming out is even worse for $MSTR. $BMNR also got nuked -47.1% this month.

Feel bad for folks that went long, $ETH is a terrible long above $4k and following @fundstrat at the $4-5K top  than at $1.5K is unfortunate.

People tend to conflate ETH network usage with price. https://t.co/zdO3e8YsTC


Yes, I'll make another post explaining why today on $NBIS

Summary: Affirms NBIS could reach $100B market cap; promises follow-up explanation.

@95jG5OcU2mL0OCK Yes, I’ll make another post explaining why today on $NBIS


Summary: Picks SMCI as top beaten-down January Effect play.

@odiimichael1 Uhh probably $SMCI. But Figma’s ( $FIG ) tax harvesting situation looks hilarious from retail data https://t.co/xaGvHpBi8m

@aleabitoreddit January Effect setups—$HIMS, $SMCI look primed. What's your top beaten-down play? Watching $SNAP too.


Summary: Long DUOL, PLTR, and HIMS as future multi-trillion-dollar companies with massive upside.

@RJCcapital What do you think of my port @DeepValueBagger @RJCcapital they all will be 10T companies

1. $DUOL - 50T AI infrastructure for language
2. $PLTR - 100x from here - 50T off interest profit.
3. $HIMS- 500T off 🐔 pills. The world needs it.

Is it worth selling a course too?

Think your portfolio’s built different? It’s not.

I’m offering an exclusive, once-in-a-lifetime 1-on-1 portfolio roasting session with your good friend RJC.

I’ll deliver a complete assessment of your dumbest holdings, rank your worst decisions, and explain why your “long-term https://t.co/YbYmd7N8B6


$PLTR - 100x from here - 50T off interest profit


$HIMS- 500T off 🐔 pills. The world needs it.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic


$AMD it's a buy for 1Y out when the 100B contract with OpenAI starts ramping up

Summary: Buy AMD on 1Y horizon as OpenAI $100B contract ramps; downgrade MU to hold on China DRAM/NAND exposure.

For semis like $AMD it’s a buy for 1Y out when the 100B contract with OpenAI starts ramping up.

Some other comment mentioned $MU, they’re more materially affected like $QLCM is to China disputes bc of large dram/nand for memory over there compared to something like $TSM. So would dg it to hold.

Of course I’m not sure how macro risk will play out with Trump being a wild card and all, if tensions ease up things would be re-rated

@aleabitoreddit $AMD in the strong buy or buy category as well?


$SNAP is incredibly undervalued at $7.64. ... 100%%+ upside here going into 2026 - early 2027.

Summary: Long SNAP: 100%+ upside to 2026-27 on GCP opex cuts, Perplexity deal boosting FCF, and AI revenue streams driving re-rating.

$SNAP is incredibly undervalued at $7.64.

-> Snapchat cutting opex costs with GCP and converting that to revenue.

-> Perplexity deal adding $400m in equity/cash on top of existing revenue.

Net FCF Is estimate from these changes is +$630M (+$190M opex cloud, memory revenue +540M, storage cogs -$100m) late 2026, early 2027.

The CEO selling $10M in shares is not material, especially when there's $500M in buybacks.

$SNAP doesn't need to be $META, it never will.

At a $13B marketcap, it just needs to cut costs and improve FCF from its $1.5B-$2B quarterly revenue (~55% gross profit margins).

Then it will be re-rated immensely, even if user counts slows or slightly drops.

Right now tax harvesting is likely ending next two weeks. But if you can wait a whole year, I'm confident Snap will strongly outperform any index once we factor in GCP opex cuts and AI revenue streams.

100%%+ upside here going into 2026 - early 2027.

I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them.

Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell.

But there's a new one I found out about.

A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis:

Name https://t.co/uhDf5dVrbY


Summary: JD.com seen as a good breakout play, though author won't trade Chinese stocks personally.

@Dylanwith86 @Jake__Wujastyk I think you can have watchlist calls on Robinhood, which is what I meant by paper trades. Not really paper trading accounts.

I mean $JD is a good breakout play honestly but I can't find myself to support Chinese stocks.

@aleabitoreddit @Jake__Wujastyk If I’m not mistaken you can’t paper trade options on RH. I image this position is legitimate


Summary: Holds AAOI on Mag7 backstop + 800G transceiver ramp thesis; prefers LITE but hesitant to chase after 46% run.

I was actually looking into $AMZN Trainium benchmarks from a semianalysis post and at Amazon's supply chain. And some friends like @yianisz post about it earlier, so I decided to look deeper at it.

But it has ~$4B spend from $AMZN as a backstop as they ramp up Trainium/Inferentia clusters, spend from $MSFT ASIC clusters, and we'll likely see more hyperscaler clients as the industry moves to 800g ramp.

Mag7 dependency is incredibly rare coming from a $2.5B marketcap company lol.

Downside + positive:  Is vertically integrated (higher-margins), since it's lasers are builtin Texas. I see just incredible volume demand, moving forward but: the whole name of the game is execution since they actually have to build out the 800G/1.6T transceivers without messing up.

I'm fully invested already in $AAOI already with relatively small-moderate position sizing for risk management (it's still a small cap with $2.5B MC).

I still like $LITE a lot more, but a bit hard to cost average up on that when it's up 46% this month.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting write, thanks. Never heard of the company, will certainly check. Are you already fully invested or did you start with a small amount?


I still like $LITE a lot more, but a bit hard to cost average up on that when it's up 46% this month


Summary: 5-year longs: RKLB (space growth), BTC/IBIT (gold market cap), TSM (foundry monopoly), HOOD (less so at current levels).

Hmm, I don't have many but aside from $RKLB, $IBIT, prob $TSM, $HOOD but less so at these levels.

I was long HOOD back at $18 but given its 1000%+ rise already, hard to see it growing into $1T in 5 years due to limits in fintech. But it was always a high conviction long due to consumer base + adding more products eg. Banking.

$RKLB is insanely overvalued right now but Spacex is the best comparison, 350b valuation now and space industry will keep growing cause national security issue + commercialization. RKLB will likely grow into that whether it's 5 years from now or 10

Bitcoin will likely keep growing into gold marketcap.

$TSM is a pure monopoly, no noise like Intel building foundries will likely disrupt that for another 10 years.

@aleabitoreddit @MMerrino569447 Amazing write up! I'm actually curious what your full 5 year timeline list for longs would look like in addition to $RKLB, $IBIT.


Bitcoin will likely keep growing into gold marketcap


$TSM is a pure monopoly, no noise like Intel building foundries will likely disrupt that for another 10 years


prob $TSM, $HOOD but less so at these levels


Summary: Strong buy TSSI on valuation dislocation; downgrade IREN on GPU orchestration execution risk; secondary longs on SMCI and DELL ramp.

Sure happy to explain further than the TLDR on why I've downgraded $IREN and upgraded $TSSI a strong buy.  $TSSI has high upside on the drop from $30 to $7 since it was an overreaction to temporary Q3 operational scaling bottlenecks and factory cost not underlying demand.

It's well capitalized to piggybak off of Dell rampup, which doubled its AI serve guidance to $20B. Likewise $SMCI faced similar issues with short term misses, but massive ramp ups in revenue guidance around Q2 2026 like Dell. With $SMCI, $DELL, $TSSI It's a temporary valuation dislocation on delayed order, primary cataylst for TSSI was FY 2026 Dell AI Rack volume and it's a strong buy on valuadtion dip.

As for $IREN, it got DGed on the $MSFT contract due to increased risk from buying billions in GPUs and infrastructure from Dell.   They shifted from original models with colo to buying the GPUs and buying a more full-stack offering (you can debate semantics over this whether you want to call iaas full-stack vs token cloud ).
Scheduling, monitoring allocation, fault recoveriy, cluster prov, container rutime, etc for GPU orchestation needed to deliver compute to $MSFT is not exactly simple. But there's more that $NBIS, $CWV does with model APis, inference runetimes, (platform/runtime layer) on top.

There's probably additional debt offerings to raise another few billion+ for the $5.8B capex on top of customer pre-payment + monetizing the rest of their capacity.

But going back to the earlier point main concern is execution risk over GPU orchestration and maintaining the stack, which people keep downplaying over and over. If $CRWV said software was their moat, and they spent billions in acquisitions/years to develop, and $ORCL had a lot of trouble with their buildout + maintaining margins, then it's likely challenging than people keep saying to do GPU infrastructure offerings compared to the de-risked models $CIFR / $WULF do, especially with it's a new miner pivot.

@aleabitoreddit $TSSI is a strong buy, but $IREN is a buy?!


$IREN, it got DGed on the $MSFT contract due to increased risk from buying billions in GPUs and infrastructure from Dell


$SMCI faced similar issues with short term misses, but massive ramp ups in revenue guidance around Q2 2026 like Dell


It's well capitalized to piggybak off of Dell rampup, which doubled its AI serve guidance to $20B


Summary: Long IBIT and LTC; LTC catalysts include rate cuts, LTC reserves, and upcoming ETF, targeting $250+.

Yeah I'm long $IBIT and $LTC. $BKKT only crypto small cap I'd consider re-entering. Never long though because of dilution.

Litecoin gets rate cut tailwind, LTC reserves, and LTC ETF next month as catalysts. Just needs a narrative like $BMNR to go $250+ again.

@aleabitoreddit Crypto but I know you had LTC loaded up. Should be up ~5-6%


I'm long $IBIT and $LTC. Litecoin gets rate cut tailwind, LTC reserves, and LTC ETF next month as catalysts. Just needs a narrative like $BMNR to go $250+ again


It's a solid long but upside is more limited with 23x fwd sales

Summary: Rates SOUN a solid long but flags limited upside at $4.5B valuation / 23x fwd sales.

My opinion on $SOUN is that it’s already largely priced in with extreme premiums at $4.5b.

$269m cash, debt free. But $14.5M loss q/q ($105m is just optics), growing revenue 68% y/y off $170m fw revenue is decent.

It’s a solid long but upside is more limited with 23x fwd sales. Who knows I could be wrong

@aleabitoreddit SOUN!? Really curious about this one cause I’ve rlly close to buying. Keep the the great work btw


Summary: Expects multiple ridesharing winners including Uber and Lyft given the massive market size.

I'd frame it more of $UBER + $NBIS Avride vs. $TSLA vs. $GOOGL Waymo.

Tesla has its standalone app. Waymo has a standalone app. Both are competing vs Uber (which has the largest network)

If I were Uber, I'd grow with Avride on this so they don't just funnel users to Waymo's app.

Probably multiple winners (eg. $LYFT + $UBER) for ridesharing since it's a huge market.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks @aleabitoreddit . I’m still sceptical of Avride in competing with companies like Tesla bought I hope I am wrong and and it can win as well as I’m a big holder of Nebius


Summary: Bearish ASAN on cash burn with no forward rev growth; prefers UPWK for better risk/reward on balance sheet and profitability.

@LibertadEterno Not a fan unless you swing trade when it hits $12. High profit margins but they're burning so much for no forward rev growth.

 $UPWK better risk reward than $ASAN with balance sheet/profitability.

Asana seems like something  where it could improve but not a obvious buy.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for the tip. Could you look into $ASAN? Chart looks prime and the CEO has been buying his own shares relentlessly.


$UPWK better risk reward than $ASAN with balance sheet/profitability.


$WULF and $CIFR are the two I'd argue that has higher asymmetrical return compared to other miners just due to Mag7 contract visibility with $GOOGl

Summary: Long WULF and CIFR as the highest asymmetric-return HPC miner pivots due to Mag7/Google contract visibility.

Yep, I’ve always maintained it’s not winner takes all (GCP, Azure, AWS).

$WULF and $CIFR are the two I’d argue that has higher asymmetrical return compared to other miners just due to Mag7 contract visibility with $GOOGl.

However, the sad reality of the situation is not every single HPC miner pivot will be successful, because it’s extremely hard. But some will be and the market will price that in

@aleabitoreddit $GOOG owns 14% of $WULF and 5% of $CIFR, and they are AI datacenter landlords without GPU depreciation costs, which $NBIS will incur. Anthropic will also use Google TPUs along with Gemini via Fluidstack, which has rented spaces at Lake Mariner and Texas centers. $NBIS will win,


Summary: Conditional buy on CRWV on further intraday dip Monday; bullish META on improving fundamentals.

@Solar_Twelve $CRWV has a lot of bad debt, $META improves fundamentals a lot.

I'd put that on Hold as well, and Buy if it drops another few percent intra-day Monday. A lot of these stocks are great CSP to write on.


Summary: Author targets $7 for VLN (from ~$2), citing valuation disconnect not yet recognized by shorts/algos.

@robswainept It’s funny, this is even through over 1.6M shares shorted.

I don’t think some short sellers or some algorithms understood the valuation disconnect with $VLN yet.

Personal opinion is that it should trade at $7 from $2. https://t.co/1bcz3Zl86j

@aleabitoreddit 25% up since this post - legend


Summary: Bullish HIMS near/mid term on 42% short interest squeeze potential; buy on dips.

@mattia030339 I’d say do both unless you’re full port. $UPWK went up a ton since i posted so might be a good idea to just get long term capital gains tax on it.

Otherwise $HIMS probably has more potential near/mid term cause of 42% short interest, if you can catch it on a dip.

@aleabitoreddit for someone still holding $UPWK would it be better to sell it now and hop on $HIMS  or does it still have space to grow? Thanks


Summary: Bullish on WYFI, cheering on the sector for multiple winners.

@dotsamaenjoyer I'm bullish on $WYFI too you know lol.

True, I'm cheering on the whole sector and it would be nice to have as many winners as possible.

@aleabitoreddit Okey i give u that

Wyfi to 100 and Nbis to 500 asap


$NBIS is the only Neocloud that's doing everything right growing revenue and on top of that, their sum of parts might be worth more than the core business down the line, which would drive it to 1000%+ from here

Summary: Long NBIS: only Neocloud executing on all fronts; sum-of-parts + core growth could drive 1000%+ return.

$NBIS is the only Neocloud that’s doing everything right growing revenue and on top of that, their sum of parts might be worth more than the core business down the line, which would drive it to 1000%+ from here.

Businesses that have done it while scaling like FTX before they went under would be worth hundreds of billions now even in a downturn. (Eg. ftx owned $HOOD, Anthropic, Dave, Solana, Bitcoin that all went up over 1000%+).

I often compare the fundamentals revenue wise with HOOD though that went $150m quarterly to $1B quarterly with a $130B valuation) because $NBIS would surpass that in just a year or two and started at similar market caps. But like $MSFT they made some great investments like Clickhouse, Toloka, Avride while sustaining their core business.

@aleabitoreddit Comparing to $MSFT is a bit early days haha


people are overreacting to contracted revenue from over a year ago being deferred by a quarter. I care more about the real-time substrate bottleneck and increasing InP prices than 2024 contracted revenue.

Summary: Bullish AXTI: 29% AH drop is an overreaction; real-time substrate bottleneck and rising InP prices are the actual bullish catalyst.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

$AXTI TLDR: people are overreacting to contracted revenue from over a year ago being deferred by a quarter.

There was no forward revenue guidance reported here.

I care more about the real-time substrate bottleneck and increasing InP prices than 2024 contracted revenue.

$AXTI drops 29.54% AHs on:

- Lowered Q4 2025 revenue expectations to a range of $23M midpoint, from $27m-$30m.

Thoughts: this is immaterial to the bottleneck issue since price shock just came in end of ~December 27th into January (now). This was former earnings, we care about https://t.co/WM16fh1zuj


Summary: Sarcastically mocks Hedgeye's NBIS short by contrasting NBIS's strong fundamentals vs CRWV's debt burden; implicitly long NBIS, bearish CRWV.

Great idea to short $NBIS because you think it's the same $CRWV, nice thesis!

$CRWV -> $1.3B+ yearly debt interest, large backlog from OpenAI, $1.8B in cash left.

$NBIS -> Convertible notes structure where interest doesn't heavily cut into profitability, diversified customer base for high utilization (shopify, cursor, governments, hyperscalers like meta/msft), $4.8B+ in cash for buildout, Robotaxi self driving car segments used by $UBER and scaling up to compete vs Waymo, AI training segments funded by and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others, 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies use, all 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y - $24B MC.

Same company as Coreweave for sure.

CALL INVITE -> Adding Tactical Short $NBIS; Growing $MSFT Risk

You don't want to miss this one.
https://t.co/zo3VjxK8CW


$CRWV -> $1.3B+ yearly debt interest, large backlog from OpenAI, $1.8B in cash left


Summary: Extremely confident NBIS outperforms and reverses current downtrend in 2026, citing diversified high-growth business lines.

$NBIS is basically 5 different companies in 1 at this point and one of the most high-beta stocks in the entire market.

Extremely volatile though. It's peers like $CRWV went up 24% in a day the other week off.

Nebius also went up 40% in a day on the initial $MSFT deal. And round tripped 100->140 -> 100 all in the span of two weeks. So just extremely volatile and definitely not a stock for the faint of heart.

That aside I'm extremely confident in Nebius outperforming in 2026 and reversing current trends. It's basically investing in a FSD-level 4 Robotaxi company, a DB that almost every fortune 500 company uses, and other moving parts growing triple digits Y/Y that derive more profit to the core business.

@aleabitoreddit what do you think of $NBIS chance for reversal?


Summary: Prefers NBIS over IREN for long-term hold: $10B+ NAV, $5.8B cash, MSFT contract with $4.9B ARR, potential $100B market cap; IREN lacks clear enterprise contracts.

Both are good. どちらを選んでも間違いではありません。
しかし、リスクを最小限に抑えつつ大きなリターンを狙うなら、$IREN よりも $NBIS が明らかに優れています。

彼らの純資産は 100 億ドル以上で、そのうち 58 億ドルが現金、残りは Clickhouse のようなハイパースケーリング中のポートフォリオ企業の株式です。
Clickhouse は Anthropic や $META を支える基盤技術を提供しています。

さらに、$MSFT との契約により、ベースケースでの年間経常収益（ARR）は 49 億ドルに達しています。

仮に成長が完全に止まったとしても、評価額は 400 億ドル以上と見込まれます。
しかし、四半期ごとの収益成長率が 1000% を超えていることを考えると、もう1件ハイパースケーラーとの契約を獲得すれば、時価総額は 1000 億ドルに達する可能性があると見ています。

一方で $IREN は、キャパシティへの投資という形になりますが、現時点では Poolhouse 以外に企業契約などの明確な見通しがありません。

その点、$NBIS はすでに Microsoft、Shopify、Accenture などの政府機関や企業と直接取引を行っています。

ネオクラウド株は長期的な保有を考えてますので、銘柄を間違える訳にはいきません。今は $IREN を選択してますが $NBIS  を徹底的に調査します。

※似たような事業の株を複数持つ投資方法は私はしていません。


$IREN は、キャパシティへの投資という形になりますが、現時点では Poolhouse 以外に企業契約などの明確な見通しがありません。


Summary: Bullish NBIS on rate cut tailwinds and seasonal factors over the next few months.

@accounting_ds Congrats, 300%+ return is really amazing YTD. With 2 more rate cuts and seasonality tailwind for the next few months, should be really positive for $NBIS.

Yeah just keep doing what you're doing if it's working, no reason to change.

@aleabitoreddit To keep a long story short concentration is the name of the game for me

Started this year at 15k and now at 50k from primarily picking 1-2 names at a time and taking advantage of this easy ass bull market

Pretty much you nailed it, I have no wealth to preserve anyways so I


Summary: Would speculatively buy bitcoin mining stocks MARA, RIOT, or WULF over the next few months.

@__visionxry__ I never entered $IREN. I was just looking at potential of bitcoin mining stocks over the next few months.

I'd probably buy $MARA / $RIOT or $WYFI if i had to take a speculative gamble on two though.

@aleabitoreddit Are you still in on IREN?


it's a buying opportunity if fundamentals aren't too materially impacted

Summary: OpenAI contagion dragging down ORCL, CRWV, AMD creates buying opportunity where fundamentals aren't materially impacted.

OpenAI was the clear leader before.

Now, Gemini 3.0 surpasses it in image generation. Claude Opus 4.5 surpasses it in coding. Can go down the line.

It looked like ChatGPT couldn’t be disrupted after they got first movers advantage. Now from similarweb data we can see popularity with Gemini growing vs ChatGPT. And im sure they’re a lot more cost effective as well using in house TPUs for inference.

OpenAI tried making the whole industry dependent on it, by asking Mag7 + government to backstop their contract promises so they all go down the ship together but that ended up flopping.

AI industry as a whole is not OpenAI, we’ll likely see widespread LLM + growing compute usage from Anthropic, Google, XAi and other vendors as we see more agentic + robotics applications next.

But right now we’re seeing contagion spread from OpenAI to several companies in the sector $ORCL, $CRWV, maybe $AMD and others few hops away that were building out capacity for their promise capex spend. But it’s taking down other companies isolated from OpenAI (in terms of stock price), which is why it’s a buying opportunity if fundamentals aren’t too materially impacted.

@aleabitoreddit I agree that $ORCL has a higher risk factor because  of OpenAI. But how have other llm’s succeeded in a way that OpenAI hasn’t? If OAI fails then why would the “insatiable” demand continue? I feel like they are all in the same bed together whether we like it or not.


Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients... Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside.

Summary: Strong long NBIS at $86.69 as the purest Neocloud/AI-infra asymmetry with $8B ARR, $4.7B cash, blue-chip clients, no debt or execution overhangs.

Nebius [ $NBIS ] at $86.69 is the purest Neocloud and AI-infra asymmetry left.

This is the highest revenue Neocloud untouched by $CIFR | $WULF and colo providers that has no:

- Plaguing uncertainty that $IREN, $ORCL face from  full-stack execution.

- High interest debt that $CRWV, $APLD, and others face.

- Revenue uncertainty at scale with Hyperscaler contracts that $CLSK, $BITF, $WYFI, $SLNH, and others lack.

After the market-wide drop with the AI sector overrun by fear:

Nebius is going forward with: $8B midpoint ARR next year, $4.7B+ in cash, diversification in enterprise clients from ( $META, $MSFT, $ACN, $SHOP, Governments), hyper-growth portfolio companies, and a proven full-stack high-margin business.

With extreme demand, execution uncertainty (margins), and isolation from current issues plaguing the markets with OpenAI contract dependency and credit tightening:

Nothing even comes close to Nebius in terms of asymmetrical upside.

You are simply just waiting for company execution.

I want whatever the market is smoking with $NBIS.

Goes into earnings:

1. Most bullish analyst projects $4B ARR

2. Beat that number by 100% with $8B projected

3. Beat contracted capacity guidance by 150%+ to 2.5 GW

4. Announce surprise $3B contract with $META

5. Drops 26%


Summary: Bullish HIMS: 42% short float creates asymmetric upside with less downside risk; squeeze setup.

@NighthawkTradez I’m surprised they even managed to borrow 42% of the float to sell short to keep it under $50

That’s an insane number to buy back given the price is still holding strong.

Even more volatile upside and less downside risk now.

🚨 BREAKING! $HIMS SHORT INTEREST HITS NEW ALL-TIME HIGH!

- 74.6M shares short
- 42% of float 🔥
- +4.4M added in 2 weeks

THIS SQUEEZE IS GOING TO BE VIOLENT!

$HIMS to $100+ https://t.co/7gXYZ4OGqx


Wait and see the look on everyone's face when they find out the entire AI buildout will be bottlenecked by the tiny $AXTI ($1B) after the China's new export controls

Summary: Bullish AXTI as the $1B monopoly supplier of InP substrates that will bottleneck the entire AI buildout post China export controls.

Nvidia CEO said today that the “Memory Bottleneck is Severe”

SK Hynix ($330B)
$MU ($355B)
Samsung ($595B).

Wait and see the look on everyone’s face when they find out the entire AI buildout will be bottlenecked by the tiny

$AXTI ($1B)

after the China’s new export controls. https://t.co/iw6Nhitsry

If you’re wondering why $AXTI is up 14%, China probably read this and sent an export control nuke to its only other competitor.

AXT just became the monopoly of the InP substrates. https://t.co/i8FSYPscfx


CVX however is the only one left in Venezuela and basically controls the oil production capacity of the country. But now the US government is likely to subsidize all of that, de-risking the company and just letting it reap in the profits + boost FCF without spend

Summary: Bullish CVX: US government subsidy de-risks Venezuela operations, boosting FCF without capex burden.

That’s up to you. $CVX however is the only one left in Venezuela and basically controls the  oil production capacity of the country.

Markets were pricing in Chevron spending billions of capex to realize the value of Venezuela's $17T reserves.

But now the US government is likely to subsidize all of that, de-risking the company and just letting it reap in the profits + boost FCF without spend (which is net positive for the US too with cheaper oil production).

@aleabitoreddit Thank you! Is it still a good time to get into CVX for short term?


Summary: Long LPTH as monopoly US-made optical glass supplier to defense contractors; targets $10B+ market cap.

@Jorge89767947 $LPTH a sole source contractor majority of major US defense contractors from Lockheed's Stinger Missiles to Andruil's Ghost drones.

It's the monopoly over US made and approved glass that the Pentagon requires for US army buildout + reduce dependence on China.

Maybe $10B+?

@aleabitoreddit It's a 6x in one year. Where do you think the stock could go


Summary: NBIS offers highest upside; AVGO and TSM recommended as steadier compounders to track broader sector growth.

@MMerrino569447 100% $NBIS is probably the highest upside portfolio lol.

That being said it's nice to have some steadier compounders like $AVGO or $TSM to track the broader sector growth so you don't get too scared on the volatility (30-40% drops and increases) like of recent.

@aleabitoreddit I have 100% NBIS. is my portfolio ideal? 😂


steadier compounders like $AVGO or $TSM to track the broader sector growth


Summary: Bullish NBIS into earnings: expects strong ARR guidance driven by UK/Israel datacenter contracts, higher orchestration margins, and confident management.

Probably a strong forward projections ARR for $NBIS.

New UK datacenters, Israel government datacenters that add more immediate ARR with capacity buildout + new contracts.

Whitepaper alludes to higher margins from orchestration. Management exudes confidence which is what shareholders like.

We’ll see in a few days.

@aleabitoreddit What do you expect $NBIS earnings to look like?


I'm bearish also on $BMNR... I will absolutely stay away from the token as an investment

Summary: Bearish ETH and BMNR: Fusaka's cheaper DA reduces L2 fees, kills fee/burn flywheel, removing the key mechanical driver of ETH price appreciation.

So, that just reinforced my point more. L2s get even cheaper data availability, which is good for scaling but doesn't address value accrual to ETH.

I've maintained Ethereum managed to scale. And it's a great network to develop on. But all that at the cost of $ETH appreciation, which is why I'm bearish also on $BMNR.

ETH's L2 idea was originally good for ETH price because scarce blockspace + rising usage = fee/burn flywheel.

But: Fusaka -> more blobs -> cheaper DA -> lower L2 fees. Not good for ETH fee/burn.

Token burn from L1 usage was the #1 mechanical driver of price appreciation (eg. EIP-1559, Merge - > deflationary) before but that disappeared.

Until that changes, I'll keep using Ethereum as a network but I will absolutely stay away from the token as an investment.

@aleabitoreddit @VitalikButerin @fundstrat Fusaka (Dec 3) → 8x more blobs → L2 fees drop Verkle/Danksharding another 90-95%, TPS >12k. Pectra (Q4 2025) +
restaking + based rollups → real value finally
flows back to ETH → burn flips hard again in the next boom.Problem acknowledged, fix literally shipping in days.


Summary: Holds 2026 LEAPS on NBIS with $110-$115 strikes, wishes had bought more OTM $125 calls.

@babyfolio December strikes like $110-$115 for 2026!

I should have done more OTM $NBIS strikes like $125 now that I think of it. It’s okay though


Summary: Bullish HIMS: profitable, growing via acquisitions, small-cap with new product launches; shorts squeezed at $50.

@himshouse This reminds me when everyone gave $HOOD a $12 PT when the stock was trading at $18.

The 42% short interest are scared when price is holding $50 after they shorted another 6%.

$HIMS is profitable, acquiring companies,  small 10B market cap, and with new product launches.

🚨 BREAKING: BANK OF AMERICA EXPECTS $HIMS TO BE ABLE TO NAVIGATE THE NEW DTC ADVERTISING REGULATIONS GIVEN ITS STRONG BRAND EQUITY AND FIRST-MOVER ADVANTAGE https://t.co/na9PGuUIlP


$NBIS is better to all in instead of $CRWV, similar backlog. NBIS has better fundamentals with 4.1B funding at $138 share vs. 9%-11% rate with CRWV

Summary: Prefers NBIS over CRWV for all-in; NBIS has better fundamentals and cheaper funding vs CRWV's 9-11% rate.

@Only4CBN $NBIS is better to all in instead of $CRWV, similar backlog. From the top of my head NBIS has better fundamentals with 4.1B funding at $138 share vs. 9%-11% rate with CRWV as an example.

@aleabitoreddit You are a Wizard.

What is your opinion on going all in on CRWV at this point?

Is it too expensive?

But the deals its putting is spectacular.


$NBIS is better to all in instead of $CRWV


Summary: Still bullish NBIS on $22B MSFT/META contracts, 100% utilization, multi-year duration, and enterprise defensibility despite space DC concerns.

Still bullish. People seem to forget the $MSFT and $META deals for $NBIS are over half a decade, 100% utilization, and $22 Billion in contract size. They have great medium term defensibility, including all their enterprise users like Cursor or $NET.

DCs in space is more near-term exploratory like quantum right now, not exactly widely commercializable and a source for compute yet.

That being said I wouldn’t be surprised if $NBIS also owns a space company subsidiary given then already have self-driving car ones lol.

@aleabitoreddit Still bullish on nbis after space data centers?


the $MSFT and $META deals for $NBIS are over half a decade, 100% utilization, and $22 Billion in contract size


Summary: Bullish NVDA long-term: backlogged for years, customers are world's most profitable cos, Cisco bubble analogy invalid; also notes AMD benefiting from overflow GPU demand.

Answer is nuanced.

So two factors:

1. GPUs get more power efficient.

2. LLMs get more capacity/power efficient.

For the LLMs case, we're seeing that on deepseek type models be extremely efficient on stuff that don't require much accuracy. Basic stuff like responding to questions about cooking recipes, or knowledge-base stuff.

However... accuracy increases, especially with complex research questions, scaled with compute. And people like Elon + mag7 realize this, which is why they're just buying up all the GPUs on the market to create superintelligence. And why antrhopic/google is building $40B+ datacenters for more advanced opus and gemini models that require more compute for critical thinking (eg. Genesis Mission)

For the GPUs case, every new generation of GPU (e.g., H100 -> B200) offers dramatic improvements in power efficiency and performance per dollar. eg. Blackwell B200 is 30x than the Hopper H100.

If we go off that assumption, then there would be a massive useless supply of less-efficient H100s and B200s in 2027/2028 creating a used GPU market crash.

HOWEVER: This is if we don't see an exponential demand for new AI capabilities (which we likely will, and what we're seeing now). Because of this exponential demand, TODAY, older models are still used (eg. TPUs from 7 years ago and GPUs from 2020), for lower inference task in lower priority inference tasks.

$NVDA is backlogged for years and people are buying GPUs from $AMD /TPUs from $GOOGL to build out any new capacity.

As for Cisco analogy, Cisco's customers were .com bubble companies with no profitability. $NVDA's customers are $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, $MSFT the most profitable companies in the world.  So worst case scenario we might see a correction, not a .com bubble crash.

@aleabitoreddit Great write up! What’s your thoughts on Nvidia creating a “Cisco” like environment where hyperscalers keeps spending on GPUs to Ngidia, and a risk of possibly blowing too much on AI spend that there’s an oversupply of GPU in the future (when GPU becomes further power efficient)


people are buying GPUs from $AMD /TPUs from $GOOGL to build out any new capacity


Summary: Endorses bullish Neocloud margin analysis covering NBIS, CRWV, and IREN.

@accounting_ds I think the $NBIS, $CRWV, $IREN margin comparison is a great read because the poster also happens to be super cool

Fantastic write up and must read for anyone wanting to take their Neocloud investment seriously

This is exactly why im bullish $NBIS long term and also why Im bullish on $IREN potential


Summary: Speculative long RUM on dip: conservative engagement surge + White House streams likely to beat earnings expectations.

It’s extremely sad to trade Charlie Kirk’s passing but I wonder if $RUM would be a good speculative buy in the next dip.

RUM earnings likely higher than expected from all newfound conservative engagement + White House streams and stock is more attractive down 42% YTD. https://t.co/pf8Se71gcR

Tomorrow, I will have the honor of hosting the Charlie Kirk Show. Please join me as I pay tribute to my friend.

12:00PM ET
https://t.co/oemvxJ18Mq https://t.co/eSMpx8xE3X


Summary: Bought $40K TSSI on rebound thesis after drop from $31 to $13.6, as semis/AI rally extends to server racks.

Bought $40K of $TSSI now that the Semi rally extended back to server racks like $SMCI.

Down from $31 -> $13.6, good chance for a rebound for small caps given the rest of semis/AI from $TSM, $CREDO, $NBIS, $AVGO, $MRVL, $ALAB and others have rallied. https://t.co/jWkww0Avro


I'm pretty sure Boost IPO will be a hit, and maybe 1B+ MC, which is around ~2x from here

Summary: Bullish on Boost IPO hitting 1B+ market cap, ~2x upside in 1-3 months.

Cipher Mining Inc trades as CIFR on NASDAQ

@dubiousnoob I’m pretty sure Boost IPO will be a hit, and maybe 1B+ MC, which is around ~2x from here, even through they haven’t released figures, just estimating based on their clients + margin + revenue growth.

Most people don’t have the patience to wait 1-3 months though

@aleabitoreddit Im all in

Nbis $100k krknf $70k cifr iren bitf $50k each

Pray for me


Summary: Both OSS and SKYT seen as hot plays on edge computing/foundry apps heading into 2026.

@LawnChairCap Stuff like $OSS or $SKYT for edge computing/foundry related apps are probably going to be a hot theme for 2026

@aleabitoreddit $OSS gotta be somewhere here


Summary: Buying IBIT at current levels; bearish on ETH.

@3KComeback Yeah buying a decent amount of $IBIT at these levels. I don't like $ETH though.

Over $22 billion in crypto options expiring today.

The largest quarterly expiries ever.

$BTC and $ETH both saw significant pullbacks this week.

I haven’t invested into crypto yet on my comeback portfolio, but this may be the time for me to start DCA.


the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it's just a matter of time and execution

Summary: Bullish NBIS: selloff is fear-driven/detached from fundamentals; forward growth supports higher market cap.

I just got reminded of the time $HOOD sold off to $28 from $65 then pulled off a face ripping rally to $150.

Sometimes stock prices get detached from fundamentals when there’s fear in the markets.  This is happening with $NBIS when it gets caught in broader selloffs because of “AI bubble” fears.

Yet the forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s just a matter of time and execution.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you. I am not comfortable after the 50% drawdown with markets at all-time highs. So, this review of fundamentals is extremely timely and helpful.


Summary: Both CIFR and IREN are early buys; expects all-time highs by February; recommends cost averaging now.

@mylifemyrulez22 no, not too late. In fact you're actually early. Most retail will probably find out about it at all time highs next year February lol.

Just cost average now even if you see it up 8% today.

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit is it too late to enter CIFR/IREN? What’s a goood entry point?


Summary: Long OSS: margins higher than priced in, sticky demand from US military deployments including Abrams/Booker tanks.

Glad $OSS caught your attention, it’s silently used across US deployments like in the thesis above, and more well known ones like modern Abrams and Booker tanks US army land vehicles.

Margins are much higher than people think because originally markets were modeling blended margins.

Demand is high/sticky so looked like a great long to me.

@aleabitoreddit spent the entire morning looking at it

there is a real thesis here


I'm convinced on stocks like $NBIS that we're in the period of time where retail bought too many short dated calls and are capitulating with shares like the drops on $TSM or $MU. However fast forward a year, this might be that 3x-4x return

Summary: Long NBIS: author sees current retail capitulation as a buying opportunity, expects 3x-4x return within a year similar to TSM/MU patterns.

FinX is a bubble.

Same with traders on /r/wallstreetbets.

People own the same stocks $NBIS, $TE, $ASTS, $HOOD, $RKLB, $IREN, $KRKNF, $ONDS, $SOFI, $AMD, $TSLA and others.

However: It’s a positive thing.

I’ve seen this on repeat again and again throughout the years.

Short term when people buy 1-3 months options, they lose money on these “bubbly” and crowded trades.

Long term 1 year later, retail gets these companies directionally right.

And this is the most important part.

For example, $TSM ($140-$150) was the most popular ticker a year or two ago on Reddit when $NVDA was initially taking off back.

Retail got this directionally right, because $TSM was the center of all AI buildout.

Short term, everyone lost money because they bought calls for 2M out and the stock stalled and even dropped to $127.

One year later it’s up over 100%+ and all those calls would have 10x’ed.

Same with $MU. Reddit knew memory was a huge part of the AI boom and piled in on the same trade.

Yet $MU stalled at $100 for an entire year and everyone lost money.

Fast forward, memory from Micron to Sk Hynix is the hottest thing now and shot up 200%+ from $65 to $245 . Retail got this right directionally right but capitulated.

I’m convinced on stocks like $NBIS that we’re in the period of time where retail bought too many short dated calls and are capitulating with shares like the drops on $TSM or $MU.

However fast forward a year, this might be that 3x-4x return like $TSM or $MU or $HOOD (at $18) where retail was directionally right all along.

I’m confident Finx Retail stock “bubbles” might not be right in shorter timeframes - where OI, macro volatility, and MMs dominate - but are right directionally long term.

Sometimes I have the feeling that FinX is the real bubble.

Everyone seems to own the same tickers:
$ASTS, $HIMS, $NBIS, $ONDS, $KRKNF, $SOFI, $HOOD, $RKLB, $AMD, $TSLA, you know the list.

But when you talk to people outside of X, or to real-world investors like Bill Ackman,


Summary: Long SYSS and LPTH as held robotics bottleneck plays; TKR, AMBA, VICR flagged as most interesting US supply chain names; bearish Harmonic Drive Systems on Chinese disruption.

Boston Dynamics/Optimus/Robotic supply chains TLDR:

- $ALGM ($6.5B) motor/sensing (Optimus)
- $NOVT ($4.7B) feedback (Atlas, Figure)
- $VICR ($6.5B) power (Atlas)
- $OUST ($1.64B) LiDAR (Spot, Atlas)
- $AMBA ($2.7B) - Chips (Atlas, Figure)
- $AEHR ($812m) - SiC Test (t2)
- $RRX ($10.5B) - Joints (Agility, Apollo)
- $TKR ($6.53B) - Harmonic Strain (t2)
- $MP ($11.82B) - NdPr magnets (t3)
- $LSCC ($11.6B) - Sensor Fusion FPGAs (t3)

I'm personally in:
- $SYSS ($998M) - Skeleton (Optimus, Atlas, Figure)
- $LPTH ($701M) - Vision (T2)

Was researching these companies after OpenAI's push into robotics yesterday and wanted to do a TLDR format of findings.

Again, robotics OEMs generally don't publish BOMs, so most of these are confirmed but some are unconfirmed but very likely from cross-referencing public findings.

But we should see an inflection point for robotics going into 2026-2027.

Thoughts:

- Harmonic Drive Systems (6324.T). Was tracking this as the leader but they just got disrupted by China's Leaderdrive that copied their technology and at 40% lower cost.

- Based on this, $TKR (US) is probably the most "alpha" up there since through Cone Drive acqusition, they're the primary US-based provider of harmonic gearing vs. Harmonic Drive / Leaderdrive.

- $AMBA and $VICR are probably the most interesting ones outside of $SYSS that I've found in the US supply chains.

- I picked $SYSS as my choice for robotics bottleneck exposure since they're the skeletons/materials for each humanoid on scale up (eg. with Boston Dynamics Atlas as known users) and effective US certification monopoly.

- $LPTH happened to be a coincidental Robotics bottleneck exposure since I bought this for DoD/military bottleneck exposure too .

These are just the "under the radar ones" in the US for the mass production scale-up. Don't own any of them aside from two, but I'm still looking into them.

Unfortunately many supply chains like $TSLA's actuators ($685M order with Sanhua) are still in China. But I expect many of them to flow back to the US, so still looking for alpha in terms of supply chain BOM.

If I missed any feel free to mention others.


$TKR (US) is probably the most "alpha" up there since through Cone Drive acqusition, they're the primary US-based provider of harmonic gearing


$AMBA and $VICR are probably the most interesting ones outside of $SYSS that I've found in the US supply chains.


they just got disrupted by China's Leaderdrive that copied their technology and at 40% lower cost


Summary: NBIS currently in capitulation like MU was; author implies holding through the selloff leads to major upside over ~1 year as AI-AWS-scale potential plays out.

はい、多くの人が $MU （マイクロン）とメモリがAIチップの構築において中心的な役割を果たすという見解を持っていました。しかし、レポートによるマージン縮小の懸念や、中国関連の懸念があり、人々は自分の見解が実現するのを待つ代わりに、結局は損失を抱えることになってしまいました。

今やメモリは不足しており、初期の人々がずっと正しかったことが証明されました。しかし、彼らはこの大幅な株価上昇の後には、もはやその株を所有していません。

現在、私たちは $NBIS のような銘柄でも同じ状況を目にしていると思います。皆、1年後にはロボタクシーと並んでAI版のアマゾン ウェブ サービス (AWS)** になる潜在的な可能性を見ていますが、今は降伏（キャピチュレーション）/売り抜けの局面なのです。

@aleabitoreddit I’m remembering $MU. After that amazing earnings report, everyone sold in panic and cut their losses. Now it’s up threefold.


it's simply a race to see which hedge funds cover their shorts first - and that's when the short squeeze begins

Summary: Bullish HIMS: 36%+ short interest, profitable fast-growing business, EU expansion imminent — short squeeze catalyst building.

36%+ short interest means hedge funds are nearing the limits of how much they can borrow to short. Unlike many heavily shorted names, $HIMS isn’t a no-revenue play, it’s a fast-growing, profitable business.

The company continues to expand with surprise product launches (like today) and will soon serve 1.2M+ customers in the EU to expand forward revenue.

At this point, it’s simply a race to see which hedge funds cover their shorts first - and that’s when the short squeeze begins.

$HIMS

Remember the commentary:
Flip the 50 Day MA to support at $50 and Shorts are screwed

This is what happened to $OSCR when it flipped its own 50 WMA and jumped +29% and still climbing

$HIMS will announce a new product today, more bullish developments.

So FULLY expect BofA https://t.co/SMX5jvzFiO


Summary: Institutions likely buying NBIS post-washout via dark pools; implied long on dip after margin liquidations.

Missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost you most of the recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility.

If something crashed like $CIFR -29% or $IREN -34.6% this week, a good quote is “retail is last to sell, last to buy back”

Institutions are probably buying the better names eg. $NBIS through dark pools/block trades now after these types of washouts and margin liquidations. (Not ones with no fundamentals) if retail decides to sell more.

@aleabitoreddit Sure those pullbacks offer great opportunities, but the question is how long until the knife stops falling... So waiting for a bottom and market structure to form is probably the sensible thing to do, no?


fair value should be higher. There's been new $NBIS data centers for ARR boost, 3x rate cuts which is a huge catalyst

Summary: Bullish NBIS (fair value higher on new data centers + rate cuts), WULF and IREN as beneficiaries of hyperscaler AI demand, and CRWV on META deal.

I respectfully disagree, "fair value" should be higher. There's been new $NBIS data centers for ARR boost, 3x rate cuts which is a huge catalyst.

Just now, Anthropic might sign a $20B+ dollar deal with $GOOGL, which is bullish for Clickhouse, $WULF, $IREN, and Neoclouds. $META x $CRWV deals.

Google/Mag7 is compute limited, and this is only a bigger catalyst for Nebius (which is still down 5.6% despite this news), which likely has more hyperscaler contracts on the way.

@aleabitoreddit I agree - I do think this is closer to "fair" value being we haven't had any significant developments announced since the $MSFT deal.


bullish for Clickhouse, $WULF, $IREN, and Neoclouds


Summary: Bullish NBIS: subsidiary upside (Avride $25B, Clickhouse $80B) alone could exceed current market cap; healthy cash stack supports DC buildout.

$NBIS should have enough to fund buildout through $4.8B cash stack plus $2.5B ATM + any fcf they get from revenue contracts gets put back into buildout.

I think Nebius management were referring to if there was extreme credit tightening, they would sell off portfolio companies, which would make sense in a last ditch scenario.

But they're in a healthy spot. If I were them I would let them all keep growing, and look for more M&As like what FTX did in the crypto sector, Meta early stage with social media networks alongside their core operational business for more defensibly.

In the event Avride becomes a $25B business or Clickhouse becomes a $80B business (which are both extremely plausible scenarios given their growth trajectories), those individual stacks would be worth more than the current market cap.

@aleabitoreddit Great write up!

My only question if what $NBIS does with its subsidiaries, I believe they mentioned that they would sell off certain subs if it meant being able to fund their DC expansion

Clickhouse feels like a big mistake to sell and Avride is interesting

Any thoughts?


Summary: Mar 2026 $60 calls on PYPL look decent for a trade; not an investment but bullish for options play.

@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances Oh yeah I had the similar thoughts about PayPal. I wouldn't touch $PYPL shares as an investment but it does look decent for trading.

Like Mar 2026 $60 calls would probably print a decent amount if someone did it.

---

@DeepValueBagger @PaperBozz @FrostyFinances IV is 38% which is on the higher end for something like PayPal though so not sure about premium being cheap. When I did $GOOGL calls they were 28% for example or $TSM was 32%.


Summary: Bullish on Neocloud sector; singles out CRWV, NBIS, CIFR, IREN as beneficiaries of Mag7 hyperscaler capex overflow into AI compute infrastructure.

As expected, with META and their recent 14B deal with CRWV + MSFT with their 17B deal with $NBIS, billions to trillions will pour into Neoclouds from Mag7 when they're unable to handle new AI compute.

Expects companies like AWS, ORCL and others to make more deals soon with companies like $CIFR or $IREN soon.

This is a once in a generation opportunity to buy tiny new Neocloud companies that serve as the infrastructure of multi-trillion Hyperscaler cash cows.

The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel

Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return.

🔹 Buckets

Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅

With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF

Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH

Miners pivoting to


once in a generation opportunity to buy tiny new Neocloud companies that serve as the infrastructure of multi-trillion Hyperscaler cash cows


Expects companies like AWS, ORCL and others to make more deals soon with companies like $CIFR or $IREN soon


Summary: Long NBIS on 4-6B 2026 revenue at 70% margins justifying 28B cap; short RGTI and QBTS as pre-revenue bubble stocks.

The difference is that $NBIS is doing 4-6B forward revenue in 2026 off ~70% gross margins.

The market cap is 28B and forward growth fundamentals are there to support valuation.

Quantum are pre-revenue with a lot of their income coming from interest instead of revenue. Companies like $RGTI and $QBTS that have no meaningful forward revenue, while being valued at tens of billions is a bubble.


Companies like $RGTI and $QBTS that have no meaningful forward revenue, while being valued at tens of billions is a bubble.


Summary: Long NBIS; current valuation severely underprices $7-9B ARR next year, stock should trade at $160+.

I mean just as things are $7-$9B ARR next year alone is absolutely tremendous.

$NBIS should be trading at $160+, markets valuing their core business ($2.2B ARR a quarter at $15B right now lol). The tremendous revenue projection outshadows any ATM dilution.

That aside, probably just trust Nebius management on this one. Nice fix would be acquisitions, but they would probably know better.

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit  Nebius said it would deploy the capacity needed for the Meta contract over the next three months, adding that the demand was so strong that the size of the contract had to be limited to the capacity that Nebius had available.

How to fix this capacity?


META grew at astounding rates with 26% last quarter because the ROI on their own AI infra for optimizing ad revenue is currently higher than almost any other investment on earth... when they go from a $1.05 EPS to a projected ~$8.30 EPS (690% quarterly jump), I think the narrative will change that their profits > capex

Summary: Long META: capex fears overblown, AI infra ROI drives revenue growth, EPS set to surge; GOOGL flagged as past analog where buying the fear worked.

So my thesis was that during first few seconds, $META post-ER was an algorithmic flash crash from BBB not being normalized (despite Meta beating on all fronts).

Minutes around the selloff, news started posting everywhere Meta was dropping due to capex "fears", rather than posting their earnings beats. And that became the narrative. But in reality, even with the "insane" spending, Meta generated $10.6B in FCF last quarter.

You're right analysts look past that. But ever since then it became narrative/optics rather than numbers ($18.6B net profit) that kept META where it;s at now.

But I'd say this time is similar to when everyone was saying $GOOGL search was dying. I remember entering Google longs at $145 because the numbers were saying otherwise.

If we look at the numbers now, everyone is claiming $META CapEx is out of control ($72B in 2025, ~$100B in 2026) and will eat all the profits.

Yet $META grew at astounding rates with 26% last quarter because the ROI on their own AI infra for optimizing ad revenue is currently higher than almost any other investment on earth, so I don't quite think they need an answer. Just point to revenue growth/net profit.

And when they go from a $1.05 EPS to a projected ~$8.30 EPS (690% quarterly jump), I think the narrative will change that their profits > capex.

Analysts (Cantor Fitzgerald, Rosenblatt, Wedbush) have are been giving $800–$1,100 PTs for 2026, sometimes all it takes is a narrative shift from their next er. But we'll see if this is right or not.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think having an answer to capex spend ROI besides ads matters?

I don’t fully think the stock got hit off the tax hit last Q, probably algos played a role but the street would be smart enough to ignore it.

Feels like the re-rating to the downside has been lack of clarity


I remember entering Google longs at $145 because the numbers were saying otherwise


Summary: Long SPY to 700+ on expected tax cuts and three incoming rate cuts.

@brewmarkets Because we just had a major stock crash just 4-5 months before and rate cut mid-September.

SPY 700+ from tax cuts, 3x rate cuts incoming.

The S&P 500 just had its best September in 15 years. https://t.co/I6MtkFjEq9


Summary: Strong long NBIS with $200 PT in 5 months; calls it mispriced at 26B market cap with exceptional forward fundamentals.

$NBIS is a once-a-decade stock that can make generational wealth.

Incredible forward revenue and fundamentals, mispriced at 26B market cap.

Screaming buy under $130.

$200 PT, 5 months. https://t.co/VvQclYVdFO


Summary: Bullish HIMS: 42%+ short interest faces infinite loss as HIMS grows and completes EU acquisition; FDA letters immaterial.

@himshouse Short seller narratives since 42%+ SI and $4.5B+ USD is at risk of infinite loss as HIMS grows and completes it's EU acquisition of 1.2m+ more customers.

The news about strongly worded letters about advertisements has no material affect on $HIMS.

Pretty insane that the Associated Press put $HIMS in the headline and framed it as the FDA "taking aim at Hims & Hers" -- when in reality the FDA sent warning letters to over 100 drug advertisers, including three letters to $LLY and one to $NVO.

Yet neither company was mentioned https://t.co/5DSkf86bWp


Summary: Bullish NBIS to $300 within 6 months; low institutional ownership means buying pressure on dips.

@soulbiri1 @EndicottInvests The institutional ownership of $NBIS is extremely low as well like 38% so they’ll likely try and buy 20% of the float (~normal is 60-75%) on any dip or retail panic.

Might even hit $300 in the next 6 months.

@aleabitoreddit @EndicottInvests Good chance Clickhouse will be worth $NBIS current market cap in 2 years or less


Summary: Long WYFI as a great buy; prefers holding BTC over BTBT which trades below NAV.

@matthew_sigel Yeah $WYFI is a great buy. People should just ignore $BTBT and hold the underlying asset.

Companies can be below NAV for many reasons, just look at Grayscale and its crypto holdings for many years

$WYFI has doubled since the August IPO.

And Clear Street just doubled their price target to $51 (from $26), citing sector multiple expansion, accelerating demand, and WYFI's faster/cheaper model which is "resonating" with clients.

Still trades at ~9× 2028E EV/EBITDA vs. peers https://t.co/st2o8yA48u


Summary: Trump Venezuela oil subsidies bullish for CVX (guaranteed), refiners VLO/PSX/MPC (speculative), and service cos HAL/BKR on pipeline work; market re-rating expected.

Just in:

1. Trump likely to Subsidize Oil Firms in Venezuela.

2. Trump is now currently meeting US Oil company leaders to discuss these subsidies and boosting Oil Production immediately

Here’s what companies likely receives the funding and benefits:

$CVX - Chevron US subsidies are basically guaranteed as they are the only U.S. major currently left that can use to immediately deploy these subsidies.

Refiners

$VLO, $PSX and $MPC - These refiners are built to process Venezuelan heavy crude. Subsidies mean the oil flows faster, albeit the exact allocations are more speculative due to multiple players.

Service Companies

$HAL, $BKR - These companies don't own the oil but they do fix the pipes. Many of these companies will likely receive subsidizes, as the US fixes extremely old pipelines.

This is incredibly rewarding for US companies to capitalize on the $17T gold mine of Venezuelan oil reserves, without risking their own capital.

Markets were initially pricing in high capex spend with a few of these, and now we might see a market re-rating in anticipation of these subsidies.

US funding oil company spend changes the equation across the board and is bullish for oil firms like Chevron.


These refiners are built to process Venezuelan heavy crude. Subsidies mean the oil flows faster, albeit the exact allocations are more speculative due to multiple players


industry='Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing'


Many of these companies will likely receive subsidizes, as the US fixes extremely old pipelines


industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'


Upgrading $SMCI to EXTREMELY STRONG BUY at ~$33 (≈$19B MC)... I'm taking long positions since $SMCI looks to be one of the most compelling risk-adjusted 6 month (medium term) trades for 50-100% upside I've seen in the hardware sector.

Summary: Upgrades SMCI to strong buy at ~$33; targets 50-100% upside in 6 months on 60%+ YoY growth, margin recovery, and AI DC demand.

Upgrading $SMCI to EXTREMELY STRONG BUY at ~$33 (≈$19B MC).

• FY’26 raised to $36B+ revenue (≈60%+ YoY from $22B).

• AI DC build-out (e.g. $NBIS, $IREN, $DGXX) keeps GPU server demand maxed.

This isn't a $CRDO 272% Y/Y ER story but it's mispriced value.

Here's why:

SMCI dropped on earnings due to two things, fears over margin compression and revenue miss.

_

1. The Q1 2026 “miss” was delayed orders:

• Revenue came in at $5B vs prior $6–7B guide.

• However, all this was, is $1.5B getting pushed into Q2 from customers waiting for Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra config. And they even **raised FY guidance** from $33B to FY $36B.

2. Margins compression fears:

•  FY 2025 Net Margin: ~5.9% ($1.3B Net Income on $22B Revenue).

• The current margin compression is temporary. As DLC manufacturing moves down the learning curve, unit costs drop and margins climb. Management is targeting ~11% gross margin in the back half of the year, with net margins snapping back toward ~5.5%.

If margin merely mean-reverts toward ~11% and net margins toward ~5–6% on a $36–38B revenue base, you're looking at $2B+ in earnings.

Revenue: $38.0 Billion
Net Margin: 5.5% (Recovery Case)
Implied Net Income: $2.09 Billion
Share Count: 680 Million (Diluted)
Stock Price: ~$33.85
P/E Calculation: $33.85 / $3.07 = 11.0x

Forward P/E: Approximately 10x-13x, for a stock with 60%+ forward growth. Dirt cheap.

_

$SMCI doesn’t depend on GPU useful-life accounting games, it sells the racks either way.

Also post $NVDA, $NBIS, $CRDO, and other AI DC stocks-post ER confirmed the AI boom is not slowing down.

$SMCI is the epicenter of the AI/DC boom, growing 60%+ Y/Y but the market is treating it like it's a $MSTR-like distressed asset.

Thus I'm taking long positions since $SMCI looks to be one of the most compelling risk-adjusted 6 month (medium term) trades for 50-100% upside I've seen in the hardware sector.

Analysis of the $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood Suppliers.

Here's the list of what comapnies are the most materially impacted by the Google's TPU buildout.

+ the TPU stock I'm taking a position on.

[Critical] Design/IP:
- Broadcom [ $AVGO ]: co-designs and implements Google’s TPU https://t.co/mYu8ZDoiMI


Summary: Bullish NBIS: institutions accumulating at low levels, ownership only 38% vs 60-80% norm, hedge funds recognizing its AI infrastructure role for Azure and frontier models.

Institutions do some fun stuff to accumulate another 20% of the float of $NBIS at lower levels.

Institutional ownership is 38% (extremely low) (60-80% usually on great companies), and hedge funds are starting to finally realize Nebius will power MSFT Azure and many other frontier models in the future.

So yeah, not a good idea to sell on the Soybean Seed Oil news, but probably shook off some retail like the Oracle hit piece.

@aleabitoreddit Today was odd that NBIS was down more than others in the same space… oh well. $150 hopefully soon!


Summary: Prefers REMX/MP calls and NBIS over alternatives on rare earth geopolitical tailwind and AI/HPC pivot theme.

I do like Rare Earth given geopolitical risk with China. Trump is also deploying $5B to accelerating mining.

I was thinking $REMX or $MP calls, but $UURAF looks promising too, I'll look into it more. Main downside I see is that it's CAD.

Not much of a fan of $NAKA or holding companies under NAV. Grayscale was under NAV for the longest time.

Yeah I knew about $BITF before. I just liked $NBIS more but there's tons of other miners pivoting to AI out there.  THanks for the recs

@aleabitoreddit $BITF - making the WSB rounds, pivoting from using GPUs to mine BTC to AI/HPC efforts (have some)
$NAKA - near NAV post PIPE unlock, Trump ties, they own a lot of BTC
$UURAF - legit sleeper in terms of their RapidSX tech for rare earth processing, IMO 10x in 1yr (10% of my port)


industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'


Robotaxis won't kill if $UBER plays their cards right

Summary: UBER can survive robotaxi threat if it aggregates non-competing RoboTaxi firms; Waymo/GOOGL poses structural threat to UBER's model.

Disagree, but it’s nuanced. Robotaxis will ruin $UBER’s business model if it’s Waymo.

Uber likely realizes that every link with Waymo will eventually funnel into Waymo’s direct app that will replace/sidestep Uber one day. $GOOGL has no problems subsidizing utilization.

Hence $NBIS Avride Texas launch with Uber is a good example of the aggregator model where they allow riders to match with robotaxis of a non-competitive Robotaxi company that they partially own.

And this actually benefits the app.

Robotaxis won’t kill if $UBER plays their cards right, but Waymo and Tesla (with direct competitor apps) will if Uber allows customer matching with them + serves as a funnel for their users unto competing apps.

We agree on @Uber. A well articulated bull thesis on the key issues.


$GOOGL has no problems subsidizing utilization


Summary: Bullish WULF as one of the better plays; $9.5B JV announcement is sizable and great news given its market cap.

@poemaran Yep! $WULF is one of the better ones out of the bunch imo, especially after the new JV that just got announced for $9.5B.

It was over 25 years I think so revenue ramp likely really slow (compared to a 5Y deal) but just given the MC it’s really sizable and great news.

@aleabitoreddit $wulf has backing from Google


$NVDA just had a blowout quarter and absolutely insane Q4 projections. Just go off those revenue projections. $NVDA sells out of Anything they produce.

Summary: Bullish NVDA near/mid-term (sells out everything, blowout quarter); AMD mildly positive near-term; TSM medium-term tailwind; CRWV faces long-term headwind from TPU/AMD alternatives.

Amazing question, so I have a really long nuanced thesis regarding Google TPUs.

SUMMARY:  The thing to be worried about is if TPUs and AMD outperform $NVDA long term, so people **PREFER** other GPUs and buy them instead. Not because they ran out of $NVDA GPUs to buy and are forced to go get alternatives.

But this is a TLDR. Right now it's like $AMD:

Potential competitive alternative to $NVDA, not much of an impact near term to fundamentals.

This is a long term headwind against NVDA specific-clouds ( $CRWV ) and $NVDA itself (eg. how $META might buy TPUs ). But part of that nuance is because $NVDA is constrained on how much GPUs they can produce lol, otherwise $META might not just buy any TPUs.

Short-term/mid-term it's not very material to earnings. Medium term tailwind for $TSM, colo providers like $CIFR, GPU agnostic cloud providers.

$NVDA just had a blowout quarter and absolutely insane Q4 projections. Just go off those revenue projections.

SO the nuance what I'm trying to say is people buy $AMD, TPUs because they're capacity straigned. $NVDA sells out of Anything they produce.

If $NVDA can't sell out of anything they produce, then that's where you get worried about the headwinds and $NVDA story.

@aleabitoreddit What is your opinion of the Google TPUs and its impact on the space?


Right now it's like $AMD: Potential competitive alternative to $NVDA, not much of an impact near term to fundamentals.


This is a long term headwind against NVDA specific-clouds ( $CRWV )


Summary: NBIS at $80 is mispriced vs deal flow (MSFT $19B, META $3B, Israel gov, Uber); trading like a distressed asset despite major contract wins — implied buy.

Meant when $NBIS annnounced the Microsoft contract they were trading around $90-$100 before rallying to $140. Pre contract it was $65-$75.

Now we’re back at $80 after $MSFT 19B deal, $META $3B deal, Israel gov deal, Cursor/Accenture, $UBER avride robotaxi launch + $375m investment round, and so on.

Nebius is trading like a distressed asset right now


Summary: MRVL is a solid long on fundamentals; POET and AAOI as indirect beneficiaries via Celestial and Maia.

$POET indirectly benefits from $MRVL through Celestial. Then there's tons of other photonic players tethered to Maia like $AAOI.

The timeline is so stupid though, it makes me annoyed:

Dec 8: Benchmark downgrades, claims "high conviction" Marvell lost Trainium 3/4 to Alchip

Dec 9: Stock drops ~10%, CEO goes on CNBC saying "we didn't lose any business"

Dec 23: Benchmark quietly walks it back. Marvell "retains a position," Alchip added for "additional design support"

Just found it insane how Benchmark could make claims like that then silently walk it back after tanking the stock price.

Then The Information does the same but they're already known for their sensational journalism.

If you just look at the numbers and ignore the noise from news reporting then $MRVL looks like an extremely solid long.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you for sharing. I’m in $poet


$POET indirectly benefits from $MRVL through Celestial

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ


tons of other photonic players tethered to Maia like $AAOI


I'll hold $30k worth to see where it goes.

Summary: Holding $30K in SPRB after taking partial profits; remaining position implies continued bullish stance.

I have no words… +$37K on $SPRB in 2 hours ($21K realized). Ended up taking profit on most.

It’s not much to me but I just find this amusing given the short timeframe and had nobody to share it with.

I’ll hold $30k worth to see where it goes. https://t.co/ywK3ozncPA

I was looking at $SPRB after @MartinShkreli posted about it and it’s TA-ERT, breakthrough enzyme therapy replacement.

Just from a quick search if SPRB’s TA-ERT is approved and they capture 10-15% market share longer term ($180–$270M ARR) of $1.4B US market... Realistic fair https://t.co/uND2Z1MZ23


Bought $SG $13.8 on the 6% drop... $SG (High $13) buy, (~ $12.8) very strong buy

Summary: Bought BULL, SG, GME, HIMS on intraday dips; provides cost-averaging levels for GME and SG with specific buy zones.

🔥Fire sale today for stocks.

Bought a decent amount of $BULL on the 15% drop 12.28.

Bought $SG  $13.8 on the 6% drop (sometimes drops to low $13/high $12.8, so hold off on major positions).

Bought $GME $23.00 on the 3% drop.

 Bought $HIMS $45.26 on the 5.6% drop.

---

I typically cost average down for swing trading. Some levels I look out for as examples (i don't leverage unless something is extremely oversold)

$GME (sub $20 - buy calls), $21-$22 buy, $23 accumulate

$SG (High $13) buy, (~ $12.8) very strong buy, sub $11 calls.


Bought $GME $23.00 on the 3% drop... $GME (sub $20 - buy calls), $21-$22 buy, $23 accumulate


Summary: Argues NBIS is undervalued vs TSLA: level-4 robotaxi launch barely moves a $23B cap while TSLA's level-2 added $300B to a $1T+ valuation.

Make this make sense...

$TSLA: FSD level 2 robotaxis -> market adds ~$300B off a $1T+ valuation.

$NBIS: FSD level 4 robotaxis -> down 3.55% off a $23B marketcap. https://t.co/kMGzihza3V

Just in: Nebius [ $NBIS ] FSD level 4 Robotaxi subsidiary Avride has now launched in Texas in partnership with $UBER.

After nearly a decade of development since 2017, Avride is finally taking its self-driving car tech into full commercial operation. https://t.co/DSPRvmNw3f


$TSLA: FSD level 2 robotaxis -> market adds ~$300B off a $1T+ valuation