if companies like $AXTI owns 40% of the entire InP supply chain (source: AXT CEO) and is valued at $700m, what value would you place on it? ... I do expect there to be an immense bottleneck in 2026 both in InP substrates and InP feedstock

Summary: Long AXTI as dominant InP substrate supplier facing massive AI-driven supply shock; argues TAM and price could surge multiples on hyperscaler bottleneck in 2026-2027.

When I made my WSB post, I'm half joking about $AXTI.

But not about the extreme bottleneck and InP supply shock.

This is a call on critical materials game theory.

If we see many historically at bottlenecks:

1. Dysprosium: ~2,300% increase (~$100/kg -> $2400/kg 2010-11)
2. Neon Gas: ~1000%-2,000% increase (2022)
3. Rhodium: ~$3,000/oz -> ~$29,000/oz (~860%)

The current Indium spike compared to others?

89% : (~$440 / kg -> ~$832 / kg).

Critical materials used for semiconductors like Neon Gas (semi-grade lithography lasers), spiked over 2000% because chipmakers like Intel and Samsung had stockpiled during Ukraine conflicts. They absorbed the cost because neon is a small fraction of the chip's value.

Like Neon, InP is a critical "enabler" material. The cost of the wafer is small relative to the cost of the AI cluster ($100 wafer vs $30,000 GPU). Hyperscalers would happily absorb huge price increases rather than delay deployment. We haven't seen that yet with InP, but we likely will.

Traditional analysts and many AI Models do not understand how to model critical bottlenecks because there's not many examples in history where an extremely cheap commodity like InP with few hundred million TAM suddenly became the most critical material for the multi-trillion+ AI buildout.

Currently, hyperscalers likely placed backlogs on downstream providers Coherent / $LITE, but likely didn't realize that laser production and capacity are backlogged because of materials shortage upstream.

There is a supply storage both for InP substrates ( $AXTI + Sumitomo + JX production) as well as the Indium Phosphide feedstock ( $AXTI, Vital, $DOWA) where demand exceeds supply by multiple factors.

$NVDA originally contributed to the supply shortage by locking in a large percent of capacity of EML. But shortage is already pre-hyperscaler ramp, where majority of the demand will come in late 2026 into 2027 when Trainium or Maia show up.

But how do you get around original chokepoint and securing your AI deployment?

Buying out substrate capacity directly from ( $AXTI, Sumitomo) or going one step lower and buying InP feedstock and passing them to substrate producers so Google's TPU program doesn't stall.

And similar to how other critical materials were needed for lithography lasers. Indium Phopshide and InP substates are even more critical to the entire AI buildout:

1. Nvidia: InfiniBand / NVLink (optical - 800G/1.6T EML Transceivers) - Extreme dependency on InP
2. Google: Jupiter / Apollo (optical - OCS), Extreme dependency
3. Microsoft: Azure Maia: High (800G DR4/FR4)
4. Meta: F16 / Artemis (800G) High

and this is not considering other Mag7 companies like $AMZN or other companies scaling out ASICs with photonics.

Currently, analysts are modeling InP companies based on TAM. For example, the total InP Wafer Market from 2024 is $183M – $205M Straits Research, Mordor Intelligence (2024)

- 6-inch (150mm) Segment TAM: $65m
- Projected Total InP TAM (2032): $580M – $700M

Now looking at TAM for Laser-Grade Indium Phosphide Feedstock:

- Polycrystalline InP Feedstock TAM: ~$300 Million
- High-Purity Indium (6N/7N) Only: ~$400 Million

Substrate Data: Mordor Intelligence (InP Wafer Market 2025-2030) and Straits Research.
Feedstock Data: Market Report Analytics (Indium Phosphide Polycrystalline Industry Analysis 2025).

This was an extremely cheap telecom product and now it's one of the most precious materials in the entire supply chain.

Increasing prices 3000% would only be low single digits of BOM value to $GOOGL TPU deployments or $MSFT MAIA deployments. And the project Microsoft ramp in 2027 alone would take up double digits of all InP capacity.

Like Intel or semis back in 2022, hyperscalers will likely  buy insurance directly with InP substrates + InP, similar to how semis stockpiled Neon Gas.

If the "TAM" really was a few hundred million, but every single hyperscaler would face deployment delays if they don't secure this material. Then this becomes a game theory bidding war.

In a $20B TPU deployment is stalled because of a $100 substrate, a hyperscaler would easily pay $10,000 (100 times current prices) for it without hesitation.

That's why when you look at InP substrate companies and see $50m backlog (from 2024), that same $50m worth of capacity for future ones could be valued at $500m, $5B or more in an extreme scenario.

This is a "tail-risk" investment, extremely reward if hyperscalers get bottlenecked by this material, but not without significant geopolitical risk and dilution.

I don't know what's going to happen, but I do expect there to be an immense bottleneck in 2026 both in InP substrates and InP feedstock.

So, if companies like $AXTI owns 40% of the entire InP supply chain (source: AXT CEO) and is valued at $700m, what value would you place on it?

InP substrate shortages emerge as new bottleneck for optical chips

A tightening supply of indium phosphide substrates is emerging as a bottleneck for artificial intelligence data centers and high-speed optical interconnects, prompting compound semiconductor supplier IntelliEPI https://t.co/XcdPA0Wryp


Summary: Holds long NBIS (medium-term conviction), CIFR and IREN (medium-term); GRRR treated as a speculative dice roll with no clean directional claim.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Internet Content & Information'

@PatientTraderr Yeah green checks mean I have it in my port. I had stuff like $CRWV at $90 and $SLNH too but held them mainly for short term trading.

Long $NBIS though, med term $CIFR, $IREN. $GRRR is kinda throwing a dice roll.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for sharing. The blue checkmark means you have it in your portfolio?


Summary: Long SMCI at $28.3; argues Goldman wrong on margins — DLC cycle margins expand over time, stock mispriced with 50%+ revenue growth to $36B by 2026.

I bought $SMCI as well at $28.3 as well. Have been swing trading it.

Goldman Sachs's analyst report extremely lazy at best.

SMCI raised revenue growth over 50%+ to $36B revenue 2026. Part of that is increased hardware costs from upgrade cycle.

But they don't seem to understand short term margin pricing to lock in initial DLC cycles, where margins expand over time. They think the forecasted gross margins like 9.5% is permanent, but they should increase over time.

Great long here IMO, disagree with the other analysts. SMCI looks mispriced.

@aleabitoreddit I'm really eyeing up SMCI rn, PEG looks delicious, can't tell if I'm just missing something


Summary: Bullish VIRT: 6.6x forward P/E after ~20% drop, undervalued with floating-debt EPS tailwind from rate cuts.

$VIRT was on my radar for quite some time. Then it randomly dropped ~20% over the past month or two.

Did some calculations and it was sitting 6.6ish forward p/e. Market maybe made assumptions that triple rate cut lowers VIX because they were more proactive but Virtu has a lot of floating debt so it actually benefits EPS more than expected.

I just thought it was undervalued?

@aleabitoreddit Thank you so much for sharing. Oversold, ready to bounce!


Summary: Author argues NBIS, CIFR, WULF, IREN are unfairly punished by irrational sector selloff; calls it a buying opportunity.

It's the $CRWV, $ORCL OpenAI Effect. Markets are irrational during fear and views the sector as a  single entity vs. seeing the nuances:

GPU Deprecation - Burry Short Thesis (rapid hardware obsolescence):

$CIFR, $WULF, etc. Literally not affected since they don't buy GPUs and do colo.

Credit Risk - tightening makes all capital-intensive AI buildouts more expensive and fragile.

$NBIS and others... isolated (Strong balance sheet, convertible debt).

Future Revenue Bubble with OpenAI not having enough

$IREN, $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF literally not affected since they're backed by Mag7, not OpenAI.

Hilarious buying opportunity for some.

@aleabitoreddit It's extremely disheartening to see a good company like $NBIS crash from $130 to $80 on no news. Hard for small investors from immigrant backgrounds like myself


Summary: Long NBIS as biggest near-term growth play backed by NVDA support + hyperscaler capex; also long NVDA moat, CRWV as beneficiary, and RKLB/IBIT on 5-year horizon.

I agree, hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression.

So they're supporting companies like NBIS on purpose to diversify demand from hyperscalers and prevent margin compression from Azure, AWS by spreading out dependencies/limit compute to these smaller GPU as a service companies.

We already saw $MSFT run out of compute for OpenAI so they had to go to GOOGL, CRWV, NBIS and others and build out multi-year contracts, even while building out custom ASICs.

$NBIS also doesn't hinge on one contract since other hyperscalers are on its way but that 17B big contract does give it a lot more assurance. We also haven't seen it fully priced in yet since valuation was ~16B+ before then and now it's $24B after dilution.

I mentioned 1 year timeframe in terms of heaviest upside with triple rate cut helping too. Double rate cut, thesis still stands with NVDA supporting NBIS + capex spend from hyperscalers flowing down to these GPU providers.

3-4 years out, I might be a bit more worried, which is why I always maintained I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe but NBIS has the biggest growth potential over the next year.

@aleabitoreddit Great analysis i have just one question $NBIS growth hinges on one MSFT contract what if ramp, utilization, or renewal disappoints? GPU supply could compress margins, and CRWV, WULF, plus hyperscaler chips threaten the moat. If rate cuts underdeliver, could the multiple drop quik


hyperscaler chips is the biggest threat to $NVDA's 4T+ empire + GPU providers. But, $NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat


$NBIS and $CRWV are NVIDIA's solution to protecting it's moat and GPU margin compression


I'm long $RKLB, $IBIT and others on a 5 year timeframe


Summary: Russell/small caps still have upside as 3 rate cuts remain unpriced in.

@LibertadEterno So far so good. 3 rate cuts still haven't been priced in yet so Russell and small caps should have more time to go up. https://t.co/GYsPTKvfdK


Summary: NBIS dip is a buy; bullish on Neocloud sector amid hyperscaler contract wave.

Wow $IREN and $CIFR just wiped out its gains. For $IREN at least, I guess the market was pricing in a hyperscaler contract already.

$CIFR AWS announcement was a really big surprise to everyone though.

$NBIS just dropped with the rest of the market but an extremely good -5% dip buy since the whole Neocloud industry is really bullish with hyperscaler contracts announced left and right + during ERs.

@aleabitoreddit Like always I lost opportunity 🥲, no $IREN, no $NBIS, no $CIFR


Summary: Upped VIRT position to $65k in OTM calls; cites 29% IV at higher strikes as attractive entry.

@ManglaniAkshay Thanks! Yeah I upped my $VIRT position to $65k or so in OTM calls.

29% IV for some of the higher strikes is such a good entry https://t.co/5tyJJhRF6h

@aleabitoreddit I like this one. Dividend is a plus too.


Summary: Bullish BTC as always a good buy; avoiding ETH now; prefers underlying assets over treasury proxy companies.

MSTR = may get nationalized if Bitcoin becomes a treasury play like Gold. BMNR not aligned with US strategic interests.

What I was saying about just buy ETH is avoid treasury companies in general and buy the underlying asset if you like it. But I wouldn't buy ETH now anyway, Bitcoin is always a good buy.

@aleabitoreddit what's the logic with buy MSTR but sell BMNR? plus you mention just buy ETH. trying to figure this one out.


I don't have many high conviction stocks but $NBIS is one at $90. Strong Buy on any dip

Summary: High conviction long NBIS at $90 on forward rev undervaluation; HIMS top pick for 3m on 42% SI squeeze; IREN good but speculative.

I don’t have many high conviction stocks  but $NBIS is one at $90. Strong Buy on any dip

21B MC for a company with so much  forward rev is insane. $IREN is great as well but more speculative atm + needs dilution

$HIMS has the most potential though over the next 3m from 42% SI. https://t.co/Mg9ZN12rRV

If I had to buy 5 things for the next month by potential:

1. $HIMS - 42% SI, new product/rate cut catalyst + 1.2M EU customers. Short squeeze inevitable, just a matter of time.

2. $LTC - Frontrun institutions for the ETF launch October 2nd.

3. $NBIS - Should easily be $100+


$IREN is great as well but more speculative atm


$HIMS has the most potential though over the next 3m from 42% SI

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic


$OSS is incredibly exciting and I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw what they were doing at a $155m MC

Summary: Strongly bullish OSS at $155M MC: military deployments, 45% gross margins, $40M+ cash, demand exceeding capacity in a hot sector.

@LawnChairCap $OSS is incredibly exciting and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw what they were doing at a $155m MC.

Like already being used in Venezuela by US military, 45% gross margins with a $40m+ cash pile, demand exceeding capacity, extremely hot sector, jeez

@aleabitoreddit Great write up, welcome to the party


Summary: Long GRZ.V: $19T+ Venezuela mineral rights not priced in; expects frenzy at open.

This is an incredible opportunity for retail investors since institutions were LARGELY caught off guard regarding direct US military takeover of Venezuela.  (classified operation involving Delta Force)

Valuing the sudden return of $19T+ in mineral rights ( $GRZ.V a small $200M company ) has definitely not been priced in yet.

So we'll likely see a frenzy for many of these names in overnight trading and market open.

Again, this is the new gold rush in 2026, and retail has the opportunity of a lifetime if they find the right tickers.


Summary: New 1Y+ longs in AMD at $215, WYFI at $33, UNH Jan 2027 leaps; DCA into FLNC and RDDT on dips.

Some days there’s not much activity.

New 1Y+ long positions;

- $AMD shares at $215
- $WYFi shares at $33
- UNH 1Y leaps Jan 2027

DCA $FLNC & SEI on drop for high risk energy plays.

DCA RDDT $198 on 4% drop.

Trimmed misc positions for EOY tax harvesting.

Why $ORCL facing challenges with GPU-as-a-Service (from leaks) is actually bullish for neoclouds like Nebius.

Hyperscalers struggling with GPU economics strengthens the case for specalized neoclouds.

This is an insane opportunity on $NBIS, $WYFI, $IREN, $CIFR, $CRWV and others: https://t.co/e89wxXA2kY


DCA $FLNC & SEI on drop for high risk energy plays


I might think $AMD calls should print because they're fabless

Summary: Long AMD calls; fabless structure benefits it, and expects tariff/export-control selloff to resolve like April, repricing higher.

I might think $AMD calls should print because they’re fabless but obviously near term it’s a headwind to the semi industry with rare earth export controls.

This caused a slight correction pricing it in but I think overall selloff reminds me of April where they come to a deal and everything is fine again

@aleabitoreddit @LibertadEterno Bought $AMD LEAPs for 2028 should  print if it actually rerates to a 1T market cap off OpenAI revenues


~42% of the stock is now sold short and they're trapped if buying pressure continued

Summary: Bullish HIMS: 42% short float trapped, continued buying pressure could trigger parabolic squeeze.

Analysis is off.

For $HIMS it’s mainly because short sellers shorted another 2.5%+ of the float
to prevent the stock from breaking out from $50 and triggering a parabolic squeeze.

~42% of the stock is now sold short and they’re trapped if buying pressure continued. https://t.co/QvgQu4MQod

Looks like $HIMS buyers that bought from $41 up to yesterday’s $47 is deciding to sell the news today

$HIMS now flat on the testosterone announcement

Still a lot of traders in this name, many ppl out there don’t plan to hold until 2030 https://t.co/ZZ8vxgSAq6


Summary: Long NBIS; ARR blew away expectations and stock should be way up from current $7-9B valuation on path to $100B.

@Asmallfish5 Yeah I was saying in my path to $100B they just needed to do $9-11B ARR, and they hit that projection.

Incredible hold, and even through 10% potential ATM, $NBIS should be way up from this $7-9B projection (I was hoping for $5B+, but this blew away my expectation)

@aleabitoreddit It trades at only 3x 26 ARR now, but some people are scared by a 10% potential dilution, LOL


Summary: Bullish AI infra stocks (NBIS, MSFT, GOOGL, TSM): low institutional ownership + strong fundamentals mean retail panic-selling is a gift for hedge funds; ignore macro noise.

Thanks, it's just that there's been an absolute surge in demand for AI compute (Data Centers, Power) from Mag7, and institutional ownership in a lot of these companies are extremely low (eg. $NBIS 38% when usually sweet spot is 60-75%).

Retail might be panic selling-off the future infra of $MSFT or $GOOGL to institutions for wrong reasons (eg. looking at $AMSL for buildout slowdown when AMSL does fab expansions, while ignoring $TSM blowout forward revenue/margin increase literally today) or because of a shock from specific regional banks. If regular people don't understand macro, noise like this help hedge funds accumulate without moving prices much.

It's better to look if fundamentals + growth are in-tact (it is, and we've underestimated demand before), and ignore hit-pieces such as the ORCL news or short term macro shocks.

@aleabitoreddit Love this analysis brotha. Thank you for putting it together 🙏


Retail might be panic selling-off the future infra of $MSFT or $GOOGL to institutions for wrong reasons


$TSM blowout forward revenue/margin increase literally today


Summary: Long NBIS on mind-numbing revenue ramp to $2.1B quarterly / $8B ARR, powered by MSFT+META hyperscaler AI spend; once-in-a-decade opportunity.

Nobody said here $NBIS would do $8B realized revenue in 2026. Not quite sure what you're trying to say or argue.

I've been consistent on $8B midpoint ARR after earnings with likely ~$3.6B-4.2B realized revenue and ~$2.1B quarterly revenue Q4.

$NBIS is ramping up from $146M quarterly revenue -> $2.1B in slightly over 1Y time, which is just mind-numbing growth and only achievable in this decade because of $MSFT $META hyperscaler revenue funnel from AI.

Once in a decade opportunity, but the distinction you're making isn't necessary since I haven't seen anyone make that confusion in the comments yet.

@aleabitoreddit It will NOT have 8b rev in 26. It will have an annualized rate of 8b at the END of 26. Important distinction


Summary: Bullish Neocloud sector, long CIFR/IREN/WLAC (moonshot); cautious/bearish on GRRR over suspicious $1.4B contract.

My point is nuanced and I think you're reading past that.

I'm bullish on the Neocloud sector like $CIFR and $IREN. I chose $WLAC as my moonshot pick since it's a small $600M MC.

I personally had every single Neocloud and miner possible in my portfolio, but I personally just decided to consolidate into ones I thought had lower downside risk and high upside. Given that it looked like execution + buildout was harder than anticipated with $ORCL.

I'm can argue positives on every one of them aside from maybe $GRRR due to their $1.4B contract being a bit sus. But if you still have other miners, some are likely to succeed, but it's important to know the trade-offs and risks come time to margins at scale.

@aleabitoreddit Dude you’re pitching a SPAC mini neocloud as a target winner while saying this


I can argue positives on every one of them aside from maybe $GRRR due to their $1.4B contract being a bit sus


Summary: Long NBIS to $150-200+ on heavy OTM call open interest creating upside pressure.

@babyfolio Oh yeah they're just for day/swing trading. I don't believe in half of them but overall, should be profitable.

I agree with $NBIS to $150-200+ though. There's way too many open interest calls OTM so now things should be interesting.

@aleabitoreddit Nice trades man, not sure about the rest, but $NBIS will retire us.


Summary: Personally bullish WYFI; bearish SLNH — unproven model, dilution-dependent financing, capacity pipeline unlikely to translate to FCF, high downside risk.

I'm personally bullish on $WYFI. As for $SLNH,  People keep claiming 2.8 GW pipeline (3 GW capacity with $IREN, etc) but obviously there's downsides.

So for SLNH: from my understanding, they do curtailed energy monetization, where they build modular data-centers wind or solar farms that produce more energy than the grid can accept.

They're more of a developer/operator trying to build these sites and negotiate cheap energy access. But we haven't seen this type of model scaled or fully financed yet.

It's potential capacity. And that doesn't translate into high margins and FCF lot of time.

There's a reason it's a sub <$300m marketcap and started off sub $70M. If they can convince enough retail to give them money for dilution, and then use that to finance all their capacity pipelines and GPUs, then the risk/reward is worth it.

Otherwise if something happens with the sector or people grow bearish on $SLNH, then the whole plan just goes disappears and the company goes under.

That's just my personal take, people can't really expect some $80m -> $280m microcap stock to not have downside risk and then just shill 2.8 GW capacity.

---

@_stockResearch Also once again $SLNH is the PERFECT EXAMPLE of why capacity pipelines does not mean FCF/Margins.

You can have 2.8 GW capacity lined up but that might not translate at scale and there's huge, huge downside risk.

That's exactly why they're a $280m market cap.


if something happens with the sector or people grow bearish on $SLNH, then the whole plan just goes disappears and the company goes under


Summary: Endorses NBIS as the best concentrated growth bet.

@accounting_ds So it depends on your portfolio size. The smaller it is, the more I'd encourage concentration in growth.

When you get to larger sizes, there's no reason to take that much risk, even if there's asymmetrical upside.

But if you're doing concentration $NBIS is probably the best

@aleabitoreddit Is it degen to be 75% $NBIS 😏


Summary: Refutes Burry's GPU depreciation thesis: long useful lives support neoclouds (ORCL, NBIS) and NVDA residual value.

Just a TLDR on the GPU depreciation argument for $ORCL, $NBIS and other neoclouds,

Burry's general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives.

This is incorrect but nuanced:

 -> in $GOOGL's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are still run at 100% utilization.

" Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics

-> in $NVDA's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity.

They have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later.  He's wrong on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex.

@aleabitoreddit Hi new follower (from the dark side of Reddit 🤭) getting clobbered with neo clouds & miners.

Saw recent mention of confusion over the expected lifespan of GPUs sowing doubts among institutional investors.


A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later


Summary: Holds IREN and is bullish on it.

@midlevelcruiser yo wtf, I have $IREN, I'm bullish on IREN.

The thing I didn't like was the 2 week expiry on options for risk management lmao

she’s right. Although she probably doesn’t understand $IREN. There are times when the markets run so hot that it pays to have cajones. We’re in one of those rare times 🫡


Summary: Long AXTI despite 29% AH drop; Q4 miss immaterial, export-control delays just shift revenue to Q1 2026, thesis intact on InP pricing power from Dec-27 demand squeeze.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

$AXTI drops 29.54% AHs on:

- Lowered Q4 2025 revenue expectations to a range of $23M midpoint, from $27m-$30m.

Thoughts: this is immaterial to the bottleneck issue since price shock just came in end of ~December 27th into January (now). This was former earnings, we care about future earning projections with inflated margins from pricing power.

- AXTI received export control delays and expect to recognize the revenue Q1 2026.

This just realizes the former backlog Q1.  This is not lost revenue. Export controls have known delays and risks.

TLDR: former earnings are immaterial to thesis and these are just known delays that recognizes the same revenue next quarter.

Care more about what happens at the inflection point of demand squeeze starting ~Dec 27th onwards, not former backlogged earnings before the InP craze.


I'm updating my 1Y price target on Nebius to $400, so adding more over time

Summary: Long NBIS with $400 1Y PT, adding more; also bullish on CIFR vs other Neocloud names.

@whyp3rk Yeah sitting on $2.1M ish Neocloud exposure right now $1.4M of that is $NBIS, the rest $CIFR, $IREN, $WYFI and misc. I’ve always been more bullish on $NBIS and $CIFR than the others though.

I’m updating my 1Y price target on Nebius to $400, so adding more over time.

@aleabitoreddit Have you adding more shares as the price goes up or sitting? $NBIS


I've always been more bullish on $NBIS and $CIFR than the others though


I think $RKLB will go to $350B market cap one day like SpaceX and it's still $30B now

Summary: Long RKLB to $350B market cap (vs $30B now); also flags NBIS, FLNC, WLAC as new opportunities.

@paramdan42454 Stonks always go higher over longer periods of time if they’re fundamentally good.

I think $RKLB will go to $350B market cap one day like SpaceX and it’s still $30B now.

There’s always new opportunities too if you feel like you missed something like $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC

@aleabitoreddit Master
How do you overcome the feeling of missed out on some stocks?

I wanted a family member to buy me rklb and some other stocks with my money last year when it was around 4$ cuz couldn’t get it since I was underaged
And now alltho I really like rklb I can’t get myself to buy.


There's always new opportunities too if you feel like you missed something like $NBIS $FLNC $WLAC


Summary: NBIS is the clear Neocloud winner; CRWV burdened by interest debt; ORCL has failed buildout + risky backlog; IREN promising but execution uncertain.

Neocloud isn't winner takes all, it's a whole ecosystem but not everything can become AWS.

We're seeing $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV, and $ORCL compete in the true "Neocloud", most profitable full stack race to become Azure/AWS. Doing vertical integration, building capacity, buying GPUs, and doing orchestration, and some incubants entering the race.

So far $NBIS is the clear winner with hyperscalers + enterprises + good balance sheet in a matter of time, $CRWV is swamped with interest debt, $ORCL failed buildout so far and OpenAI as their biggest + risky backlog. $IREN is promising but they have the biggest question mark for execution since it's not the original approach like $CIFR people were expecting with their capacity and software orchestration is much harder than people expect (looking at $ORCL then $CRWV spending billions on software aqusitions).

Then there's $CIFR, $WULF, miners, etc and others do safer colo with their existing capacity while hyperscalers like Amazon plugs in their own GPUs. I still put them as a Neocloud but I guess it's time to make a separate category, but these aren't as affected by Burry's false comments about 2Y GPU deprecation lol.

And then we have the rest... undergoing the pivot to HPC, with X amount of future capacity promised and this is becoming increasingly difficult to raise money for this change from credit tightening.

It's a good thing that we're starting to see emerging winners after the series of recent earnings. Market hasn't priced this in yet but it's a matter of time.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think its good if the pool of players begin to shrink?

Probably best if this industry is not commoditized and only the best can serve the best


$ORCL failed buildout so far and OpenAI as their biggest + risky backlog


$IREN is promising but they have the biggest question mark for execution


we're less likely to see institutional shorting into adjacent sectors now that the US gov is starting to backstop companies and sectors strategic to national interests

Summary: US gov backstopping strategic sectors reduces short pressure; bullish on IONQ, RGTI, and NBIS as national-security-relevant plays.

The point of the post was an analysis one step deeper into potential affects on US government taking positions in $IONQ, $RGTI. Previously the US took positions in critical mineral companies + Intel and it’s surprising given that US usually stays away taking equity in private companies.

AI buildout (data center, energy) like $NBIS and other sectors are national security issues. And we’re less likely to see institutional shorting into adjacent sectors now that the US gov is starting to backstop companies and sectors strategic to national interests.


AI buildout (data center, energy) like $NBIS and other sectors are national security issues. And we're less likely to see institutional shorting into adjacent sectors now that the US gov is starting to backstop companies


Given $HIMS growth + 1.2M customers in Europe, I have high conviction that they'll cover.

Summary: High conviction long HIMS: growth + 1.2M European customers will force shorts to cover.

@jliljliljlil There’s no pt on short squeezes, it’s whenever short interest decreases.

Either there’s a whopping spike that goes up 50%+ or some sustained squeeze over a year like TSLA back in 2020.

Given $HIMS growth + 1.2M customers in Europe, I have high conviction that they’ll cover.


Summary: Bullish SNAP on profitability re-rating driven by $1.4B+ quarterly revenue and +$800M FCF, not AR glasses thesis.

Disagree, Snap is a social media company. Its revenue comes from ads, not AR glasses.

They have high revenue but are unprofitable because of Google Cloud spend.

They just needed to convert that Google Cloud cost into revenue (which they did) by deleting memories + charging for them.

Now they do $1.4B+ quarterly revenue and will finally have a net profit from it with +$800M FCF.

That will cause the re-rating, not trying to create Snap glasses.

@aleabitoreddit @capybara_830 Your analysis is flawed. They are the leader in AR glasses. They will shock the world when they release their consumer specs and they will re rate as a high margin hardware company akin to Apple and iPhone


$AIRO will recognize it next quarter but that "huge miss" caused the selloff since it was misunderstood

Summary: Bullish AIRO: selloff was based on misunderstanding deferred vs lost revenue; expects recognition next quarter.

@Mr__Cause That was deferred revenue, not lost revenue.

$AIRO will recognize it next quarter but that “huge miss” caused the selloff since it was misunderstood.


Summary: Bought IREN post-drop on hyperscaler contract expectations; NBIS seen as most asymmetric neocloud play.

@cronked Thanks! late reply, but I bought some $IREN after the drop. It's more speculative than $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF, but I'd expect a hyperscaler contract down the road.

Obviously $NBIS is most asymmetric return but wouldn't be bad to have other neoclouds up there too

@aleabitoreddit Glad you moved over from Reddit. I have enjoyed your posts. What do you think of $IREN after the drop today? My biggest holding is $NBIS, by the way.


I added positions in $META at $625... looks like a great long here

Summary: Bought META at $625; thesis: algorithmic EPS-optics boost into Q4 earnings on 700%+ q/q EPS comp, 26% Y/Y growth, holiday ad revenue seasonality.

I added positions in $META at $625

My theory:

Big beautiful bill wrecked their last earnings despite record beat.

This caused an speculated algorithmic selloff from artificially low looking EPS (-80% drop)

This works in reverse for next earnings.

Q4 earnings -> EPS looks artificially high (eg. 700%+ q/q growth)-> HFT algorithms buy stock.

Meta grew 26% Y/Y and is stupidly profitable despite any capex spend.

Seasonality from Q4 (eg. Ad revenue from holidays) should also be a booster.

Hard to bottom time given large open interest on 16th and potential Iran US conflicts, but looks like a great long here. Especially if I want to trade the accounting alpha in how algorithms react.

Sounds really stupid but markets work that way sometime with optics. We’ll see if it’s right or not.


Summary: Bullish NBIS: sold-out 220MW reflects extreme demand, not structural limits; 2.5GW contracted supports $7-9B ARR with continued capacity expansion ahead.

I'm not sure where this incorrect framing comes from?

$NBIS sold out of 220MW of existing and near-term connected power because any new capacity is being fully allocated.

That's not hitting a maximum structural capacity ceiling, that's validation of extreme market demand.

1 GW of connected power is projected 2026 and they have 2.5 GW of contracted capacity to support the $7-9B ARR figure.

That doesn't mean they can't expand their capacity like they've done from 1 GW to 2.5 GW from Q2 to Q3 earnings. They just sell out of any capacity they bring online, and revenue is limited by how much capacity they can bring online.


Summary: Rotated into NBIS and Neocloud sector broadly on superior gross margins; warns not all HPC-pivot miners deserve 150%+ re-ratings without execution.

Agreed, I think we'll start to see that soon. It just reminds me of the time when you renamed your company Blockchain and the stock price went up 200% 6 years ago.

I transitioned miners and HPC companies that went up 50-300% into likely higher gross-margin Neoclouds like $NBIS, but everyone has their own interpretation, I'm just sharing what I did from what I've seen with recent developments.

Not every company with MW/GW + repurposing plans that announces HPC deserves a 150%+ increase because capacity doesn't exactly mean profit.

Execution and margin at scale will cause re-ratings but generally Neocloud sector as a whole is incredibly bullish.

@aleabitoreddit worked on a few deals in this space and companies always get it wrong:

the pivot from mining to HPC sounds easy on paper - but you can’t just flip a switch from Bitcoin hash rate to enterprise SLAs

the market will eventually price that difference in


Neocloud sector as a whole is incredibly bullish

Neocloud sector basket of HPC/AI cloud names


I'm pretty bullish on $OSS though after looking into company, esp. Venezuelan invasion and beneficiaries

Summary: Bullish OSS on Venezuelan invasion theme and likely defense/security beneficiary angle.

@B38B37 $AXTI and $AIRO have been hilarious to watch both are up 50%+ in a week or so.

I’m pretty bullish on $OSS though after looking into company, esp. Venezuelan invasion and beneficiaries.

@aleabitoreddit Followed you with a 1% position, a marketcap that small can't be passed on. Thanks for your insights, already +50% in $GDRZF and $AXTI thanks to you, let's Hope this third one will print too 🔥


Summary: Long NBIS on neocloud rally; cautious long HIMS near $50 support; dip-buy RDDT on 6-7% pullbacks; cost-average AMZN and TSM on dips.

Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like:

"It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS.

Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc.

Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks:

1. $NBIS - $111.91, even though it's up 1.53% on the day, CRWV is up 12% off Meta gives them a $14B contract.

So usually it's bullish for all neoclouds. It spiked to $117 ( i probably would have still held) but pulled back to $111 likely from too much open interest, but we'll likely keep seeing a rally upward. So I'd use this time to DCA and buy calls/shares even if it's up 1.53%

Not "truly a dip" but it's more of a dip during a rally.

2. $HIMS - $56.4 Down 4.67%, usually people just blindly buy the dip but this was actually caused from something material, which was Trump launching a direct to consumer GOV drug website. Short interest decreased back to 33% on the rise to $60.

This dip will likely be used for short covering. I did buy $46 support but sold shortly on a bounce after I just felt like it would go down more. But I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50.

I still remember AMZN launching a competitor, HIMS crashed 20% then rose again, I'd expect the same with Trump's program mid term but near term it's a headwind.

3. $RDDT - $228, down 5.45%, no news. Just probably valuation concerns. We saw similar growth stocks like ALAB, CRED, have random 20% pullbacks. Lot of software/social stocks like SNAP down 8.1% off non-material news. Correction is healthy, stocks don't just keep going up, I'd prefer to wait in the $100+ again, rather than $200+ (just personally), but it's actually a better buy than the rest, given RDDT has larger 5-8% pullbacks on random days, just from historical experiences so 6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover but we might see a lot of growth stocks have a larger correction into massive rally Nov/Dec so might not be an actual bottom.

I don't really look at chart RSI nowadays, just do this based on feelings from experience looking at the stock + IV every day for the past year or two.

4. AMZN - No major macro news, prob government shutdown Oct 1st that might cause some panic for index but it's pretty immaterial. It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it' a good time to cost average.

5. Klarna - $36, 5.3% drop. Sometimes you just go off gut feeling. Below IPO price, no major news. Most IPOs were down like Gemini, etc. If you wanted to build a long term position I'd buy at this level.

6. TSM - $277, I've been guilty of swing trading between $273-$279, so I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279 for 2% profit purely with shares. So far I've done this ~2 times with shares. If it drops past $273, I'd just DCA and then if it drops further switch to calls.

There's no True or False way to do this, everyone kind of has their own approach. (also sorry about CRM, bad earnings got that one wrong, I'll probably cost avg if ti declines further).

But generally this is just what I'm thinking about when I go down the list of every single stock. Once again, everyone thinks differently, I just wanted to write down how I think if it's helpful to others.

Monday Market Close Thoughts:

Extremely Strong Buy
$NBIS
$ETOR
$LTC
$VIRT

Buy
$AMZN
$SMCI
$TGT
$CRM
$TSM
$CRDO
$SG
$CIFR
$LULU
$SLNH
$ORCL
$MSTR
$RIOT
$MARA

Hold
$IREN
$HIMS
$RKLB
$PYPL
$MRVL
$IBIT
$UPWK
$GRAB
$ALAB
$ASTS
$SOFI
$NVDA
$NVO

Sell
$HOOD
$TSLA
$RDDT
$CRCL
$PLTR


I just personally prefer bottom entry points so that's probably closer to $50


6-7% drop is a good buy intra-day and you'd likely see it recover


It dropped, 1.35% so I'd buy since it's a good time to cost average


I just buy every drop to $273 and sell at $277-$279


Summary: Endorses MRVL as a great long; separately bullish on LITE as the subject of the author's own thesis.

@bricked_trades $MRVL is a great long, I'll write a separate thesis on their role in maia 300.

This thesis was about $LITE though... So two different stocks.

@aleabitoreddit Leaving out $MRVL a crime
They acquired Celestial AI which makes them a real player in opticals and becoming a full stack AI interconnect vendor.

They now control EVERY layer of how data moves inside a data center from inside the chip, the rack, between racks and buildings.


Summary: Scaling NBIS to $1M+ with $225 PT on Mag7 customer base, NVDA backing, MSFT $17B contract, rate cuts; also bullish CRWV but prefers NBIS on valuation.

Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT:

Thesis
______
When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent.

There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them.
On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well....

NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe.

Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA
_______
NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance.

Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA.

Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL.

GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers.

NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips.

And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up.

Macro Tailwind
_______
3x rate cut priced into Polymarket.

If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities.

On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable.

NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday.

Company Comparisons
________

If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs.

CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them.

$IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet.

WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better.

Fundamentals
______
MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share).

By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%).

In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins.

This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B.

Misc Thoughts
___
They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50.

There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200.

There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc.

But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.

HOW TO TRADE LIKE ME – LONG THREAD

I'm known for uncanny accuracy and timing stock breakouts on Reddit + X.

Over the next few weeks I’ll share one post every other day walking through my process so you can see how I think and trade.

Doesn't hurt to read! https://t.co/L21Ewv2iJz


CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher


Summary: Long VLN: trades at 2.4x EV/revenue vs peer 14-18x; re-rating to 10x implies 3x+ upside; extreme mispricing thesis.

You had a $80m forward revenue, $NVDA-margin fabless robotics semi trading close to 1:1 cash/inventory to marketcap.

Even after 60% run $VLN literally sits at 2.4 EV/revenue, while similar companies trade between 14-18.

Re-rating to a standard 10 EV/revenue would be over 3 times+ current prices.

This is why it's good to do the fundamental valuation math yourself rather than looking at percentage changes since this looks to be extreme mispricing from algorithm hallucination.

@aleabitoreddit Even after Friday’s 60% run, there still seems to be significant upside. Manage the risk through position sizing.


$ETH as a token is a terrible investment, especially above $4K. Unless there's protocol changes that generate reasonable value accrual to the ETH token from L2 activity, don't bother with ETH as an investment.

Summary: Bearish ETH: L2s siphon value from mainnet, revenue collapsed, no economic incentive to hold without protocol changes for value accrual.

Finally, @VitalikButerin perfectly pointed out why I’m bearish on ETH, and @fundstrat’s $BMNR.

$ETH as a token is a terrible investment, especially above $4K.

This is what Tom Lee, Cathie Wood’s ARK innovation, Vitalik and others didn’t understand:

There is a disconnect between Ethereum as a network and ETH as a utility token.

Ethereum network (that’s growing) does not translate to the token price appreciating.

If you bought $ETH near the end of 2021, you would have lost money. Meanwhile $BTC price has appreciated close to 300% since then. Why?

Layer 2s.

1. Vitalik encouraged users to move to L2s (like Base) over the past few years. As a result now these networks move billions in volume but all fees go to companies like Coinbase (sequencer) not validators on Ethereum.

2. L2s pay fees to store their data but this is just incredibly minimal compared to the economic value they siphoned off of Ethereum mainnet.

That’s it. Layer 2s siphoned off profit, activity, while the Ethereum’s network receives barely anything for data storage. Value accrual went to companies like Coinbase, not ETH token holders.

Ethereum’s Network usage is at an all-time high, but Mainnet revenue has collapsed and there’s little economic incentive to hold the token as an investment.

Unless there’s protocol changes that generate reasonable value accrual to the ETH token from L2 activity, don’t bother with ETH as an investment.


Summary: Initiated $100k position (shares + April calls) in T1 Energy at $4.45; bullish on data center buildout tailwind and 300% forward revenue growth despite thin margins and debt.

Initiated a small position ($50k shares, $50k April calls) in T1 Energy $TE $4.45, partly because I like League of Legends and Faker.

I have energy positions such as $FLNC, SEI and $EOSE (trimmed) that performed very well.

But like the rest, energy is pointed to benefit from the data center buildout and a $700m MC is a good risk-reward.

I can confidently say I don’t know enough about solar/battery/energy to give a good fundamental thesis but got recommended this from other X users. So I’m not going to try to pretend I have domain expertise in this.

But generally, when a company Grows forward revenue 300% y/y and starts the year off with 800-900m revenue from almost 0 the previous year, this a positive sign. Even with 25% gross margins, there’s quite a lot of debt 500-600m. But the growth is staggering and a beneficiary of the data center buildout.

Sometimes just need to take the leap of faith with a sector and trust DD of peers on X.

October 20th, Important Rate Cut Trading Week.

Personal thoughts and explanations:

🛝 = Swing Trade

🐈 = Catalyst Trade

🎇 = 2026 Trade, Tax Harvested

Fire Sale
🔥 $NBIS

Strong Buy
$TSM
$AMKR
$WLAC
$AMZN
$LTC 🐈
$RDDT
$HIMS 🛝
$IBIT
$ALAB
$CRDO
$SMCI
$FLY 🎇
$SNAP 🎇


Summary: Long WLAC as a SPAC play on Boost Neocloud IPO over 3-month horizon; 75%+ EBITDA margins and 250% rev growth; Google likely backstop adds long GOOGL lean.

IMO opportunity front running the Boost SPAC Neocloud IPO through $WLAC (OKLO, DJT, etc) if u hv 3 months patience.

Boost works with Fluidstack, likely backstopped by $GOOGL in the future.

75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year.

EST MC ~$600m, maybe next $CIFR. https://t.co/apzAdfLvMY


Summary: Long NBIS, CIFR, WULF as Tier-1 Neoclouds with healthy balance sheets that will see durable margin expansion vs. weaker competitors in a credit-tightening environment; current sell-off is a mispricing/buying opportunity.

Your analysis nails the second-order alpha. Credit tightening hurts the ability of weaker competitors to fund new capacity + improve forward FCF/margins, fundamentally constraining growth.

This translates to more durable margins to the T 1 Neoclouds like $NBIS and $CIFR with healthy balance sheets and no high debt interest. This is a massive long term premium the market is currently mispricing + hasn't priced in yet with this sell-off.

Mag7 capex as we've seen is increasing, but it's funneling into winners eg. $NBIS, $WULF, etc. We're seeing an indiscriminate sell-off due to panic from $CRWV and $ORCL + credit tightening, and this is a buying opportunity and actually a competitive advantage for the least affected Neoclouds.

@aleabitoreddit Actually… the deeper story here is who can survive a credit choke point.

This washout is exposing the split between capacity speculators and true infra operators.

Mag7 capex isn’t slowing but the cost of capital is rising (because risk is rising, liquidity is tightening, and


Mag7 capex as we've seen is increasing, but it's funneling into winners eg. $NBIS, $WULF, etc. this is a buying opportunity and actually a competitive advantage for the least affected Neoclouds


Summary: Bullish ASHM on Venezuela distressed bonds and CVX on unlocked trapped assets following regime change.

Nation building one of the rarest and best opportunities as an investor.  With the regime change, it's now run by the US gov.

Venezuela is a resource gold mine.

There's a lot of distressed assets like bonds that $ASHM have, and given little institutions frontran these events (since it was a surprise military action), tons of potential upside by discovering the right companies.

Same with companies like $CVX that had assets trapped and are now unlocked or banks that operated there (look at what happened to Argentina banks/stocks)

@aleabitoreddit Personal advice: don't put your money in corrupted and unstable countries.

You're welcome.


$NBIS is hilariously valued at $21 now. Would not be surprised if this is a $40B company not too far in the future.

Summary: Bullish NBIS: core business strong, AVride subsidiary adds robotaxi upside, sees path to $40B market cap from current ~$21 valuation.

$NBIS core business is insane.

But what's even more insane is that potential for their subsidiaries to be worth more than their main business in a year lol. There's no public robotaxi companies right now. The only way to get exposure is $TSLA for their robotaxis and $GOOGL for Waymo.

And $NBIS has AVride ~$6B valuation 83% ownership, which they partnered with $UBER (also an investor) to compete vs Waymo.Elon's been shilling Robotaxi's as a trillion dollar market.

Would not be surprised if this is a $40B company not too far in the future.

That being said, $NBIS is hilariously valued at $21 now.

@aleabitoreddit With their history of execution, 2 hyperscaler deals completed and 2026 ARR guide + 2.5 GW goal, if this were trading at $175/share I would be holding/buying still


Summary: Long AXTI on InP substrate supply bottleneck and massive shortage expected in 2-3 months.

@_stockResearch Thanks, I'd like to take credit as one of the first ones to publicly post the thesis around $AXTI.

This is just validation at start, but my main thesis is around the InP bottleneck and massive supply shortage that happens in 2-3 months.

@aleabitoreddit Your research was incredible on this one and in the several tickers you’ve mentioned lately!! Doing a better job than a 10+research teams at a small research firm!! More power to you’n


Summary: Bullish NBIS; would aggressively buy LEAPS on any dip back to ~$96.

Just a reminder that this is all short term capital gains tax! So profits holding a stock might be more than this option selling style.

Sometimes it's better to just buy the dip on Weebius/ $NBIS because if it drops 6% in a day then recovers to flat, cause 6% profit is better than premiums from puts.

But yeah $96 strike is pretty safe, I'd switch buy a ton of leaps if they ever dropped to that level again on $NBIS.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you senpai I think I'm going to sell $NBIS $96 puts this week and buy on margin if assigned. I'm catching up in Demon Slayer+the movie right now in order to do my due diligence as a $NBIS investor.


Summary: Buying LEAPS on NBIS after 10%+ drop with no fundamental change; bullish on the dip.

@DeepValueBagger I've been waiting for a 10%+ drop like this (with no material changes to fundamentals) to buy leaps on $NBIS.

Glad you see the opportunity too.

@aleabitoreddit That's a great play. Im adding to my leaps


Yeah I'll cost average. Retail trading volumes should be up a ton.

Summary: Adding to long VIRT calls via cost averaging; thesis that retail trading volumes are up will be tested at earnings on the 23rd.

@iPheNoX9 Yeah I’ll cost average. Genuinely don’t understand the drop aside from near-mid term uptrend with lower volatility

Retail trading volumes should be up a ton.

I’ll try my thesis against the market when they release earnings on the 23rd.

@aleabitoreddit Are you buying more $VIRT calls?


Summary: Strong buys on AMD and NBIS over 5-year hold; NBIS highlighted for asymmetric upside and blowout forward revenue.

@_visionarius Both are strong buys, $NBIS especially given their asymmetrical upside at this marketcap.

Their forward revenue is hilariously mind blowing.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think it's still worth buying AMD and NBIS now when I want to hold 5 years?


$NBIS especially given their asymmetrical upside at this marketcap. Their forward revenue is hilariously mind blowing.


Summary: Heavily long neocloud/AI infrastructure names NBIS, IREN, CIFR, CORZ, SMCI; sector hilariously oversold, rotating out of low-beta stocks.

@soulbiri1 $2M+ in $NBIS exposure now, added super heavily at <$96. Rebought $IREN at $53.8, $CIFR at $17.3 and initiating $CORZ - $16.3, $SMCI - $38 mid term positions.

The whole sector is hilariously oversold.

Sold off my low-beta stocks today to position heavily back into Neoclouds.

@aleabitoreddit Sold $WLAC here and queued up LEAP orders for $NBIS, hope they get filled...


$VIRT performs better, is currently undervalued, and serves as a hedge, which was my thesis. I'm convinced market is wrong even if VIX isn't high, retail trading activity is strong...forward p/e is really low

Summary: Long VIRT: undervalued on low forward P/E, strong retail trading volumes (~25% of flows), profits in extended volatility; market mispricing it.

You’re right it’s not 1:1 correlated, I should have done better at pointing out the nuance. So the correct way phrase is $VIRT is very profitable in extended periods of volatility (when VIX is elevated) and it gets priced in the eventually.

So in a volatile downturn, $VIRT performs better, is currently undervalued, and serves as a hedge, which was my thesis.

I’m convinced market is wrong even if VIX isn’t high, retail trading activity is strong if you look at Robinhood’s data. ($VIRT handles ~25% of retail flows), forward p/e is really low.

@aleabitoreddit if you track VIRT against VIX, it isn't really correlated - meaning vix can go up while virtu goes down. everyone keep saying its a vix play, I think it's incorrect at least for price action. Yes they make money in time of violent moves in market, but do they go up when vix do?


Summary: Long NBIS with $400 price target from $121, believes it should already be at $158; Neocloud sector aided by rate cuts.

@__visionxry__ I still think $NBIS hits $400 from $121 and should be trading ~$158 today. Markets might just waiting until earnings for clearer guidance, even if you can estimate them.

Neocloud sector is probably the biggest beneficiary of rate cuts too so that helps

https://t.co/dO6F8PVCIH

@aleabitoreddit Im about 80% $nbis atm, time will tell if i went too regarded


Summary: Personally buying CRDO at ~$130 after post-earnings drop from $210; sees attractive entry, hedged with photonics.

If I trade based off my voodoo TA charting, I'd be personally buying $CRDO at $130 level (which is around now).

Dropping from $210 -> $130 post-earnings last month, especially from fake news, makes this an attractive entry. Credo could always drop further, but I'm hedged pretty well with photonics right now.

@aleabitoreddit Still holding LEAPs, long and strong


Summary: Mega bullish on IREN and NBIS (implied as the company with 4 portfolio companies growing 100%+ Y/Y); long neocloud sector.

@babyfolio I've always been bullish on $IREN and the neocloud sector since my original thesis post!

I just happen to be mega bullish on the one that has 4 portfolio companies growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside it as a side quest.

@aleabitoreddit Beautifully put, $NBIS is going to be the leader.
And I see you're become more bullish on $IREN which is nice


mega bullish on the one that has 4 portfolio companies growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside it as a side quest


Summary: Long AMZN at $220 (buy shares, wait $211-216 for calls); also bullish TSM to $1.8T and META to $2.3T among tech giants.

$AMZN is an great buy here at $220 if you're doing shares.

I'd wait for $211-216 before entering shorter term calls.  Fed meeting today didn't affect odds of 3x rate cut.

In terms of tech giants my guess is:
$TSM -> $1.8T
$META -> $2.3T
$AMZN -> $3T https://t.co/5KwV6XZWxK

$NBIS is a once-a-decade stock that can make generational wealth.

Incredible forward revenue and fundamentals, mispriced at 26B market cap.

Screaming buy under $130.

$200 PT, 5 months. https://t.co/VvQclYVdFO


Summary: AXTI flagged as a potential major opportunity as InP substrate supplier for photonics; COHR seen as not at the scale needed for AI buildout.

HBM was a critical bottleneck in 2025 and we've seen that with $MU and SK Hynix.

Just researching components used for future hyperscaler ASIC deployments, the whole industry is moving to photonics.

If we go to the bottom of that supply chain it's just two companies for INP substrates. Which is absurd to think about.

It could be a huge market opportunity for investors for stuff like $AXTI, but just in terms of national security risk, it's just a crazy bottleneck that needs to be looked at. There's companies like $COHR, but nowhere near to scale required for AI buildout.

@aleabitoreddit Directionally agree. As AI scales to 800G, 1.6T and CPO, the bottleneck shifts from GPUs to interconnect, putting photonics and InP in the critical path. Supply is concentrated and slow to expand, creating real fragility and pricing power that most models still underestimate.


There's companies like $COHR, but nowhere near to scale required for AI buildout


Summary: SMCI is mispriced relative to forward growth, making it a trading long.

@MajorOcelot45 For me $SMCI is a stock to trade due to mispricing of forward growth, there’s tons of better long term investments.

@aleabitoreddit Do Supermicro bulls like it for trading or investing? Why not just buy Vertiv instead?


Summary: Tariff selloff is short-term shock; recovery likely into late-Oct rate-cut frontrun; bargain hunt crossfire casualties (CIFR, UNH, DKNG); avoid China-revenue-exposed names like MU, NKE.

Getting Vietnam flashbacks.

Jokes aside, markets dropped 3.65%+ after Trump tarrifs Chinese imports by 100% and restricts the export of critical software to China.

This surprise event was rational repricing but also catalyzed by fear + margin calls (after hours, with $IREN dropping 21% for example, or $BTC dropping to $107k).

What this typically foreshadows is slower growth and higher inflation (lower rate cut odds).

However, Polymarket and Fed futures data still shows 70-72% of 3 rate cuts by 2025. Midterm elections next year are also generally bullish for stocks. And we're approaching end of season seasonality, which is typically the best for stocks.

And of course, many stocks dropped in crossfire without any direct exposure, such as $UNH or $DKNG (eg. Draftkings has nothing to do with China, imports, etc. since it's US sports related, but fell 9.4%)

TLDR: likely a short term tariff shock, mild macro risk, and a overall sell-off from fear, but into recovery.

Now that markets are closed, a lot of money can be made is in times of low liquidity high-spread like after-hours/overnight (during earlier tariffs, $HOOD dropped from $45 to $28 overnight then went on a massive rally to $100+).

Random events like these are why I don't recommend options as positions can be nuked up in an instant.

If you have cash positions, go bargain hunting for extreme selloffs, eg. $CIFR dropping 16% to $14, instead of panic selling your own positions.

Otherwise, things like these are usually short term from shock, and we'll likely see a recovery frontrunning rate cut in late October. That of course if the stock isn't materially impacted from China revenue unlike $QLCM, $NKE, $MU, $CDNS, etc.

(I didn't expect the extent of the reaction, lost a decent amount today, but will hold positions).


many stocks dropped in crossfire without any direct exposure, such as $UNH


many stocks dropped in crossfire without any direct exposure, such as $UNH or $DKNG


go bargain hunting for extreme selloffs, eg. $CIFR dropping 16% to $14


if the stock isn't materially impacted from China revenue unlike $QLCM, $NKE, $MU, $CDNS


Summary: NBIS top asymmetric return among neoclouds on full-stack software + margin efficiency; IREN has upside from raw GW capacity but lower conviction.

So in terms of raw upside, $IREN is promising just because of pure GW capacity. However, $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return out of any Neocloud.

With the recent Nebius whitepaper, they published a bit about GPU utilization, etc. Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is a misunderstood moat in terms of how they maximize margins from GPUs.

People try to frame miners as potential pivots but if we look at $ORCL builtout, they were struggling with margins that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers like compresses margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently.

So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins. So being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs gives Nebius a clear edge.

@aleabitoreddit This is an exciting field of work and thank you for sharing your ideas, coupled with facts. I am learning a lot. By the way, what do you think ,even if Nebius seems more promising, Iren could be the main competitor, especially with the upcoming Sweetwater 1.


$IREN is promising just because of pure GW capacity


Summary: 5-year highest-conviction longs: RKLB > BTC > TSM; also bullish NBIS to $200+ in 1-2 years on revenue growth catalyst.

@junyongisusing1 If I had a 5 year timeframe it would be $RKLB then $BTC then $TSM in terms of highest conviction.

This list is just my best guess on return potential from highest to lowest in the next few months.

---

Stuff like $NBIS I'd just assume there's going to be a giant catalyst to $200+ in a year or two from revenue growth + forward potential.

Then it might end up like $SMCI in 2-3 years when things settle down with high revenue, lower margins, but  inventory risk and profit growth once all the big tech deploys their own chips with $TSM + $AVGO.


$NBIS I'd just assume there's going to be a giant catalyst to $200+ in a year or two from revenue growth + forward potential


Summary: Long UPWK: stock deeply undervalued, margin expansion + $100M buybacks could take it to $25.

@triforcerytp People turn to freelancing, so positive, unless it’s a major recession.

Even if revenue drops, $UPWK just needs to increase profit margins.

Their stock is incredibly undervalued and  all management needs to do is cut out bloat to reach $25. $100m in buybacks helps too.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think about the cooling job market's effect on UPWK?


Summary: Added $300K in call leaps on NBIS; views 10% drop as a major buying opportunity.

Fire sale $NBIS

Personally added $300K in call leaps at this level, 10% drop is a huge buying opportunity imo. https://t.co/EYYmETApmP

We are 12 days away from a rate cut (94.1% odds). MMs enjoy times like these to cleanse the option chain.

In terms of levels I’m personally looking out for larger sized leveraged trades:

$NBIS - $105-$110
$TSM - $170-$175
$BTC - ~<$100K
$RKlB - $35-$40
$ALAB - $100-$120
_ https://t.co/JnuHLd8zMM


Summary: Holds long-dated AXTI calls as safer leveraged long; would extend to 2027 if available, limiting downside vs outright shares on China export-restriction risk.

Yeah that's a huge reason why I did $AXTI calls furthest date I could go out. I would have done 2027 strikes if they existed.

If China restricts exports, it might get nuked, and you would lose like $1M in shares vs $100k in calls.

So this is one of the very, very rare times Calls are actually safer then shares.

@aleabitoreddit Since $AXTI has geopolitical risk and can essentially go to zero whenever China wants, it seems like calls are the way to play it, no?


Summary: Holds NBIS with high conviction that thesis plays out longer-term despite recent weakness.

Happy Thanksgiving Kohai! I will always appreciate the fridge printout you made.

Sorry markets haven’t been to friendly to a lot of the stocks like $NBIS in the past month. I always feel really bad if I post about something and it goes below my cost average too. But I have strong conviction that my thesis is directionally correct in the longer run.

@aleabitoreddit Happy Thanksgiving, Senpai!

I've been thinking about this recently, so perfect timing on the write-up. Thanks for all you do!


Summary: Holding GDRZF on $360M cap vs $1.1B awarded claim + potential 45% stake in major gold/copper deposit.

@thgstar2 uhh, it's a $360M marketcap. And they literally have an awarded $1.1B claim already but Venezuela didn't pay.

Then there's another one for 45% control over the Siembra Minera, one of the largest gold/copper deposits in the world.

I think I'm holding $GDRZF, just in case.

@aleabitoreddit I’m in Gold Reserve, got lucky because it trades at my German broker so I could buy way before US open … Still a hold for you?


Summary: Bullish LPTH as undervalued pure-play defense contractor with broad US defense exposure and China supply-chain relevance at $700M vs KRKNF's $2B+ for single-customer Anduril exposure.

@Kowalski_Mark_ @pennycheck Appreciate the source on Andruil being a customer of $LPTH.

It’s interesting ppl buy $KRKNF for single customer exposure in Andruil at $2b+.

But you have a pure play contractor that involves majority of US defense contractors and addresses the China bottleneck at $700m

@aleabitoreddit @pennycheck Anduril - Key Customer

page 47 - https://t.co/rz5UO6kXl7


Summary: Long AIRO: solid $68.8M net cash, 2.1x EV/revenue vs peers, deferred not cancelled revenue, and drone vertical premium justify re-rating from distressed levels.

Looking @ $AIRO from the fund/vertical not the exec team. For example, @chamath was frowned upon until he got that 20B Groq exit. Or Saylor was a meme until $MSTR pulled off a heist. It does make a large difference, but it's not everything.

In terms of $AIRO / $ONDS, especially with Russia/Ukraine conflicts + NATO + DoD funneling money into drone segments, the vertical should command a premium (but Airo, trades like it's distressed).

The RQ-35 Heidrun IP, seemed extremely interesting for GPS-denied environments. But they have a ton of misc companies like training that are just side quests.

So similar to $SMCI, there was also backlog delays with caused the crash in Airo (the $6.3M vs $23.7M miss). But the $20m drone shipments was just shifted not cancelled.

Net cash is $68.8M which is extremely solid given its mini $250m MC, and it trades at 2.1x EV to revenue, compared to others like $AVAV at 9.4x. I think $ONDS was like 20-30 off the top of my head.

So TLDR: solid cash position, attractive vertical, drop based on differed revenue not cancelled, low market cap presents good upside.

It shouldn't trade like a distressed company because of cash position + just deferred rev.

@aleabitoreddit You need to drop $AIRO, should  look into the history of their executive team, is a big no go for me.

Chirinjeev Kathuria and Mariya Pylypiv specifically. The helped found UPHealth which literally cratered and had to go into bankruptcy. They were forced out and then sued by the


Summary: Bullish on FLY; military/Northrop contracts, reusable rockets, favorable market cap.

I go through tons of companies every day. I was looking at $DFLI, $83M marketcap Lithium Battery company that just raised $28.75M at the current share price (which is bullish).

Typed in fly, found $FLY. Looked at it, and they have contracts with Northrop Grumman, military contracts,  and were building medium-lift reusable rockets.

Market cap was good, and I like it

@aleabitoreddit How do you find these so quick! Partially joking, but your analysis on these are excellent and I want to say again how much we appreciate the effort.

I’ve still just been scalping $NBIS because it’s simple, and I can DCA if ever came down further. I’m up 22% because of you!


Summary: Long NBIS after Monday MM hedge unwind; 10% drop attributed to options mechanics, not fundamentals.

Yeah this $NBIS 10% drop was MM hedging + option unwinds (with a mix of retail margin liqudations), not any changes to fundamentals.

-> Lot of people sold puts
-> Lot of people had calls expiring this week.

You can see how the stock is completely pinned at $113.5 after hours.

Great time to go long and buy positions IMO after MMs unwind short hedges Monday.

@aleabitoreddit sempai, are we going to be okay by EOY? 🥲


Summary: Long NBIS with $250+ target by 2026 on management projections; author still bullish despite drop from $130 to $75.

Yep, you’re correct when I said that $NBIS is an extremely strong buy even at $130 a month ago. I still maintain that today, and would be buying Nebius if it were trading at $125.

I believe the drop to $75 is like the moment when $HOOD dropped to $28 during tariff fears then went to $100+ when retail capitulated.

I do feel extremely guilty if people followed my thesis on Nebius with options that expired this month. I lost a lot of money myself so far on March/May expiry options from the drop.

But medium-long term I believe $NBIS easily blows past $250 once they achieve management projections in 2026

@aleabitoreddit $NBIS crashed all the way to $75 after you said it was a "screaming buy anywhere below $130."

This isn't a criticism of you. I rather like your tweets

It's just that only God can predict the future.
Not even the most brilliant traders or investors.

 Everything else is .... https://t.co/ammp9HCTs4


Summary: Long NBIS: $17B MSFT contract, $4.1B capex raise, hyperscaler demand, forward rev growth of hundreds of percent not reflected in $25B market cap.

It's not because of a price rally. It's because since then, $NBIS has 17B from $MSFT for multiple years, $4.1B+ now raised for capex last week on good terms, with additional rate cut tailwind projected from 3 days ago.

We've also seen MSFT be compute strained and OpenAI go to $GOOGL. With other hyperscalers sign deals for more compute and more likely to sign on.

This all happened recently, before $50 NBIS was speculation and I wouldn't have high conviction in a speculative company unless it was $RKLB.

Now it's pure scaling from here with forward rev compounding hundreds of percent. 25B marketcap does not match forward growth.

@aleabitoreddit Where was your conviction when it was under $50 ?  Everybody is having strong conviction after it reached $90.  TBH, most of them are just attracted by the price rally..


$NVDA is a strong buy. they will likely leapfrog TPU v7 in newer gen chips in due time and their immense backlog provides them near term (2Y) security

Summary: Strong buy NVDA on backlog security (2Y) and expected chip leap over TPU v7; also implicitly bullish GOOGL TPU progress.

Yes $NVDA is a strong buy.

However to the other viral research posts about $NVDA GPU vs TPU performance, they were falsely comparing older generation TPU v6e to show the current situation on $GOOGL TPU vs $NVDA GPU.

My post was on newer TPU v7 Ironwood vs $NVDA Blackwell B200 and showing the architectural parity.

The TPU v7 Ironwood performance leap is so substantial (up to 10x compute jump) that a lot of research going around X is misleading on the inference capabilities and cost savings of TPU.

In terms of buy thesis, on $NVDA, they will likely leapfrog TPU v7 in newer gen chips in due time and their immense backlog provides them near term (2Y) security.


TPU v7 Ironwood performance leap is so substantial (up to 10x compute jump)


Summary: Long META via options rolled to Mar/Apr expiration, averaged down to ~$640; expects recovery by January.

@Neat_Lama Yeah feeling better. $META extended selloff was unexpected but I expect it to recover by Jan.

I rotated Jan into March/April expiration and averaged down to $640-ish. Still down a lot but I expect it to recover like $NBIS.

@aleabitoreddit Hi Senpai, hope you're feeling better. Any new thoughts on META? Bought a little too much at the beginning of the selloff with Jan exp. and am in a bit of a tight spot right now. 100% on me, just wondering if you have any more thoughts on recovery into year end?


Summary: Long AXTI as the effective InP monopoly and single point of failure for the entire AI buildout post-China export controls.

$AXTI is effectively a monopoly for InP, and the single point of failure for the AI buildout for:

- Nvidia ($4.6T)
- Microsoft ($3.59T)
- Meta ($1.64T)
- Amazon ($2.57T)
- Google ($3.89T)

after China's export control ban on Japan.

Looks like markets are starting to find out. https://t.co/rxGkcHYBtS

Nvidia CEO said today that the “Memory Bottleneck is Severe”

SK Hynix ($330B)
$MU ($355B)
Samsung ($595B).

Wait and see the look on everyone’s face when they find out the entire AI buildout will be bottlenecked by the tiny

$AXTI ($1B)

after the China’s new export controls. https://t.co/iw6Nhitsry


Summary: Bullish NBIS with $400 PT bull case; current ~$130 seen as deeply undervalued with new ATHs expected weekly.

@blu400_ Personally I’d cost average.

Even if $NBIS is near ATH, it’s growing rapidly and it will keep having new ATHs every week.

I’ve maintained $400 PT bull case, so $130 now seems quite undervalued

https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx

@aleabitoreddit hi @aleabitoreddit, do you like to fully allocate a position in 1 go, or do it in tranches instead? With $NBIS trading where it is near ath, is is prudent to keep some dry powder for that allocation to catch a dip later, or just allocate and hold. Maybe it's up to the individual


Summary: Long VIRT: trading at ~7x P/E, beat on EPS and revenue, buybacks ongoing; author sees it as undervalued.

Usually only on short term time-frames I'm wrong but I've always been directionally right for anything higher conviction.

Recently main three were I got wrong were the $LTC ETF catalyst wrong, even after approval it dropped from $113 -> $82.5. Probably one of the weirdest things since it got delayed even despite 95% approval odds from gov shutdown then randomly approved during shutdown (and even I didn't know about it). Then just tanked on broader market high beta sell offs.

The other was $SG, thought it would rebound from $7.5-$8.3 or so but it's $6.3, there's a huge bear market on anything consumer. So it got affected by $CMG, $CAVA, $KRUS, etc. selloffs.

The last was $VIRT, especially now with a p/e of 7 or something ridiculous. They reported earnings and $1.05 vs. $0.97 - $1.04 (beat) and $467.0 million revenue vs. $418.4 million - $449.7 million (beat), but still sold off. (This was more of an asymmetrical hedge) but even with fundamentals, I have no clue why it's ~7.5 P/E. People always are like X is a great value investor stock trading at ~15 P/E, this is single digit P/E (but more cyclical on retail trading activity, but $HOOD is reporting record numbers so should be a good proxy).

Still an extreme enigma to me... I think it's undervalued, especially with buybacks and might be another $UPWK.

Other stuff like nuclear SPACs I bought for fun were half-gambling memes so more understandable if they went down. Usually if I put a thesis behind it then it's more accurate.

Stuff like $SNAP, $FLY, and others I've maintained was a 2026 play, so short term doesn't really matter. Things like $WLAC were IPO catalyst plays so high-beta movement during its low float SPAC days doesn't really mean much until the event happens.


Summary: Bullish both NBIS (capacity catch-up) and IREN (front-loaded grid capacity H1 2026); NBIS narrows gap from H2 2026.

So actually as of Q3 earnings, $NBIS 2.5x'd its contracted capacity guidance and achieved near long-term parity with $IREN.

However, $IREN has a tremendous amount of value in front loaded grid-connected capacity (now -> H1 2026). But H2 2026 onwards, $NBIS looks like it caught up in that front (3 GW to 2.5 GW contracted power guided as of Q3)

@aleabitoreddit @babyfolio What's your opinion about the capacity of Nebius to get more GW ?
I like they are confident operating around the world, but surprises me they haven't more Power capacity by now

And thx. for sharing the analysis with us


$IREN has a tremendous amount of value in front loaded grid-connected capacity (now -> H1 2026)


Summary: Downgraded IREN on execution risk from AI cloud pivot; maintains outperform on NBIS for asymmetric upside and diversified client base.

I'm very precise with my wording. You skipped over "expected" while reading discussions about guided contracted capacity.

So reiterating what I've said above but with a longer explanation:

$IREN's original moat was GW capacity + vertical integration. $NBIS's moat was full-stack.

However, Nebius achieved long-term parity with GW capacity that was originally thought to be $IREN's biggest moat.

Here's a helpful explanation:
- Near term $IREN .66 GW connected vs. 22 GW connected with $NBIS. Today, $IREN has more frontloaded capacity.

- Mid-term, The connected power argument is closing between $NBIS and $IREN with 1 GW 2026 for IREN and 1.4 GW for Nebius.

- Long term, $IREN projects 3 GW power expansion, $NBIS projects 2.5 GW contracted power expansion with Nebius achieving longer term parity with connected power.

Nebius management also raised capacity expectations by 150%, and there's a large chance it increases again to exceed other Neocloud companies.

On top of that $IREN ended up pivoting to full-stack IAAS instead of lower-risk colo ( $CIFR, $WULF ) for higher revenue potential due to "higher revenue and margin potential" as per their ER.

But looking at $CRWV + $ORCL buildout difficulty with software/orchestration, this immensely raises execution risk for a new pivot with $IREN compared to $NBIS, which has it down + plug and play with existing stack.

$IREN has high upside potential if they get this right, but due to execution risk and credit tightening required for future financing for capacity monetization for their AI cloud pivot, I've downgraded it.

Nebius also has a much larger diversified client base as mentioned above for both revenue visibility + defensibility, which is why I maintain outperform on $NBIS due to asymmetrical upside.

@aleabitoreddit Still confusing guidance vs contracted capacity, I see.


I maintain outperform on $NBIS due to asymmetrical upside


Summary: Long NBIS: diversified customer base means better economics and higher utilization vs concentrated peers like ORCL.

Yep that's true and just alerts to concentration risk and why Neoclouds (eg. $NBIS) that have heavily diversified customer base would likely have better economics than those that don't.

Part of $ORCL's loss was time between buildout/utilization since virtually all of its deals came from 4-5 customers like OpenAI. Demand exists, but there was revenue lag.

$NBIS for example is heavily diversified and would likely achieve the high utilization throughout buildout.

@aleabitoreddit I'm reading a lot of fear that this is due to lower than expected demand. ie. "if there was a lot of demand, then oracle should've been able to price correctly" - but I think that it takes time to setup the infrastructure & will take time for payments from customers to show. Hby?


Summary: Both VRT and RBRK are good longs.

@aleabitoreddit Great content highly appreciated, any views on $VRT & $RBRK


Summary: Both VRT and RBRK are good longs.


Stay away from $UAVS until the result of the vote on the 22nd. Buying this stock is effectively donating money to the arbitrage investors.

Summary: Avoid UAVS: SEC filings reveal massive dilution structure giving arbitrage investors right to buy $100M shares at 75% discount; retail always loses.

Warning to retail investors:

Stay away from $UAVS until the result of the vote on the 22nd.

I was researching drone stock recs, and found SEC filings where the shady board voted for a wealth transfer from retail to arbitrage.

It's a drone company that's been getting retail attention because it's used by:

US Army USACE, NATO (KFOR), and other armed forces with a lot of news published recently.

I was super excited about this potential long for a $75M company, since they pivoted their agricultural use case to drone defense contractor.

However, the November 7, 2025 Filing was a massive dilution nuke.

Basically they sold their entire company to arbitrage investors last  year in their Series G round, giving these guys the right to buy $100M  shares at $1.23 or 75% under market price current is.

Back in 2021, the same Series G investors put out false information  about an $AMZN partnership to get retail to buy -> dump shares on  them (Bonitas Research pointed out this news was fake). The entire  company is now controlled by the same arbitrage investors like Alpha  Capital Anstalt.

These companies control the price too (can easily make this $300M then dilute when retail sees price go up and buys in)

With this clause, they have effective control of 100%+ of the entire company now where they can issue new shares -> profit 50%+ -> repeat. I almost fell for it while looking into drone stocks.

TLDR: Buying this stock is effectively donating money to the arbitrage investors. The fact the board voted for this structure is alarming.

Stocks positive sum game long term where everyone benefits if the thesis is directionally right. In this case, with the current financing structure, every retail investor loses.

January is wild.

Not even joking, many of my picks are up 60%+ over the past few days.

Didn’t even include $AXTI +60% or $VLN +60% in the charts.

While leaving out smaller rallies like $CRDO 25%+ or Intel 25%+.

Need more 5x stocks for research if you have ideas or a thesis. https://t.co/VWO2l8yn87


Summary: Bullish photonics plays: LITE as the leader in hyperscaler ASIC/Blackwell deployments; AAOI levered to Maia and Trainium with upside still ahead.

Not really! Markets are starting to realize $LITE's role in every single hyperscaler ASIC deployment + blackwell and when you look at BOM, it's a whopping amount, especially in TPU v7.

Lite is the photonics leader but many there's others like  $AAOI, which are levered to MSFT Maia and AMZN Trainium (which hasn't moved at all yet).

So opportunity in photonics is there next year.

@aleabitoreddit Seems a bit late, no? Been watching this for a while but…


$AAOI, which are levered to MSFT Maia and AMZN Trainium (which hasn't moved at all yet)


Summary: Long NBIS on superior core operations, subsidiary portfolio, and higher upside; bearish on AI/crypto miners as margin disappointment kills GW-equals-profit speculation.

Just wanted to point out a new valuation thesis shifting from power capacity hype to margins due to new information from $NBIS recent whitepaper, $ORCL margin leak, and others.

People just assume GW = profit with miners, but in terms of profitability and execution in the future, I'd expect the speculation to die down hard with miners when they find out margins are lower than expected.

I just wanted to do the core operational side comparison, which $NBIS clearly stands out on top.

On top of that, as you mentioned, they also have a great portfolio of subsidaries + hyperscaling companies too that I didn't add in that would lead to a higher upside.

@aleabitoreddit Not only is their core AI infrastructure business, more bullish than its competitors; but also their subsidiary businesses — AVride, Toloka, Clickhouse stake, ect makes them an absolute NO BRAINIER when picking the best play in this space. $NBIS is the goat 🐐


I'd expect the speculation to die down hard with miners when they find out margins are lower than expected


I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday and price to go back up, hence why I used this time to buy calls despite elevated IV

Summary: Expects NBIS short hedges to unwind Monday driving price higher; bought calls into the dip.

It's likely MM pinning for $NBIS, you can see this with the price stuck at $113.5 despite any volatility.

I'd expect short hedges to unwind Monday (given MMs bought puts and were short calls -> heavy short into expiration) and price to go back up, hence why I used this time to buy calls despite elevated IV.

@aleabitoreddit Hello. Many think the big drop is an ‘across the board’ selling phenomenon ie across multiple holder types. However, I was thinking that it may just be Lion Partners, who hold 450k shares, as per the last 13F filing, trimming their positions from their funds, after a huge run up


Summary: Short ETH above $4k: L2s don't deliver enough value to mainnet, too many competitors (Solana, EVM-compatible L1s) siphoning activity.

@robswainept Sure I'll do an Ethereum writeup this weekend. It's a really long thesis, but mainly has to do how L2 don't enough deliver value to ETH mainnet compatible to their tx and how there's too many competitors (eg. Solana) or EVM compatible L1s that siphon off network activity.

@aleabitoreddit Can I ask why you think ETH is a strong sell $4k+ ?


Summary: Go long oil and defense/war stocks ahead of imminent US attack on Iran; LPTH flagged as a major beneficiary.

@DesingerGem BREAKING: "US may attack Iran within the next 24 hours, per Reuters"

"US ATTACK IS IMMINENT"

Go omega long on war stocks and oil before the actual event.

$LPTH is a huge beneficiary of this. https://t.co/byzGakiNrN

@aleabitoreddit Opinion on market once trump hits Iran?


Summary: SPEED Act passing is a major positive catalyst for data center companies including NBIS, CIFR, ORCL, CRWV, CoreWeave, APLD, and CORZ by reducing permitting delays and derisking bear cases.

Thanks! There were some other posts about the Speed act passing and “bullish for $NBIS and $CIFR”, which is helpful.

But I just wanted to break down “why” since the DC sector is EXCEPTIONALLY nuanced and interconnected.

Speed act passing is better than 3x rate cut, since delays are probably one of single biggest issue for probability whe we look at utilization drag, time sensitive depreciation costs, and margins affecting companies like $ORCL and $CRWV.

Bear case thesis with delays and “unsustainable capex” gets derisked with this act on direct beneficiaries like Coreweave. And companies downstream from $APLD and $CORZ improve as well from lower counterparty risk.


delays are probably one of single biggest issue for probability whe we look at utilization drag, time sensitive depreciation costs, and margins affecting companies like $ORCL and $CRWV


Bear case thesis with delays and 'unsustainable capex' gets derisked with this act on direct beneficiaries like Coreweave


companies downstream from $APLD and $CORZ improve as well from lower counterparty risk


Summary: First-glance bullish on HIVE's pivot into HPC as promising for forward revenue.

@Air_Airia Took me a bit to read into it (eg https://t.co/WlUsSt7YIZ).

Looks like $HIVE pivoting into HPC which is really good for forward revenue.

It would probably take me an hour or two to really get to know the business but at first glance it looks direction ally promising.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think about $hive


Summary: Bullish high-beta names NBIS, IREN, ALAB, RDDT on macro tailwinds from govt shutdown resolution and stimulus; also sees ETH recovery underway.

Lot of headline-only posters out there.

I usually try to connect the dots on top of the headlines and fill in the why (it moves markets).

TLDR on the new macro setup (bullish for high-beta names like $NBIS, $IREN, etc):

1⃣ DEAL TO END GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN TAKES SHAPE - Axios (Government shutdown likely ending within ~5 days)

Commentary: Event-contract odds jumped from 27% → 54% in the past hour or two. We're pricing in a near-term resolution.

• Liquidity flows back once government spending resumes.

• Market reprices GDP growth higher.

• Consumer spending picks up immediately.

• Uncertainty fades (markets hate uncertainty).

Result → Expect high-beta and cyclicals to do well when risk appetite comes back.

2⃣ $2,000 “tariff dividend” proposal to American taxpayers

Commentary: Feels like a mini-version of the COVID stimulus. Those deposits triggered the fastest jumps in retail spending, people were buying everything from Bitcoin to League Skins with that. But at least this came from tariffs.

• Great for assets: more money flowing into the economy.

• Might lead to inflation: more demand pressure, potential Fed pushback later.

• Short-term: Extremely positive for risk assets and growth names. Mid to long-term: Could backfire with inflation and the Fed tightens.

• Usually moves like this aim to ignite markets in the near term, good for anything heavy growth.

Result → Expect frontrunning before the official reopening and a spike once it’s confirmed.

You can kinda see stuff like $ETH start its recovery from the combination of the two above $3300->$3500 as an example.

Again I expected things like #2, just due to midterms coming up next year. The party in power usually gets re-elected if markets seem to be doing well (so I'd expect stuff like #2 + fed pressured rate cuts, so markets go up).

Of course this is just new news + speculation, not facts for sure given how volatile decisions are made lol. But generally focus on stocks that corrected but still have growing fundamentals eg. $NBIS, $RDDT, $ALAB, etc.

Pretty disgusting correction across the board.

Last 5 days for high-beta growth stocks:

• $SMCI -26.11%
• $RKLB -19.85%
• $CRCL -19.81%
• $NBIS -19.14%
• $WYFI -18.55%
• $ALAB -16.64%
• $CRDO -16.8%
• $HOOD -14.36%
• $ASTS -14.09%
• $IREN -13.22%
• $AMD -11.63%
• https://t.co/TqyTnAWgeb


bullish for high-beta names like $NBIS, $IREN, etc


focus on stocks that corrected but still have growing fundamentals eg. $NBIS, $RDDT, $ALAB


You can kinda see stuff like $ETH start its recovery from the combination of the two above $3300->$3500 as an example


Summary: Prefers direct WYFI exposure over BTBT; rejects BTBT as proxy due to NAV discount and dilution.

@Rainier_hs A good lesson to learn is that companies trade under NAV all the time. And especially since it's an ETH holding company that dilutes for non HPC purposes, would rather just get direct exposure to $WYFI.

@aleabitoreddit Why not just buy BTBT instead of wyfi? They own 70% of it and you get a little ETH on the side


Summary: Long NBIS as top asymmetric Neocloud play; also bullish CIFR, WULF and others in the sector.

@babyfolio True, $NBIS has clear asymmetrical upside over every other company in the Neocloud sector and I'm happy + easily can explain why.

That doesn't mean I'm not bullish on $CIFR, $WULF, and others though.

Can't stress this enough $NBIS risk reward at this price is just bonkers


I'm not bullish on $CIFR, $WULF, and others though


Summary: Buying dips in NBIS and initiating position in WYFI, citing low institutional ownership and accumulation opportunity in AI compute infra.

@babyfolio Yeah I'm using this opportunity to buy $NBIS (-5.37%) and create positions in $WYFI (-3%) now.

Institutional ownership is low on the infra of mag7 for AI compute so they probably use these opportunities to accumulate from retail.

@aleabitoreddit Absolutely agree with you, thanks $ORCL for sharing that loss that allowed me to add more shares in $NBIS 🙏🙏


$LITE is personally my favorite since it's central to every ASIC + gets much higher BOM share with OCS architectures like TPU

Summary: Long LITE as favorite ASIC/OCS play; long AAOI on Maia/Trainium ramp 2026-2027 as hidden opportunity.

@jvthed210725 $LITE is personally my favorite since it’s central to every ASIC + gets much higher BOM share with OCS architectures like TPU.

$AAOI is levered Maia and Trainium ramp and we should get Maia 1M+ ramp 2026-2027 as per UBS note + other research firms, so it’s hidden opportunity


$AAOI is levered Maia and Trainium ramp and we should get Maia 1M+ ramp 2026-2027 as per UBS note + other research firms, so it's hidden opportunity


for 2026-2027 with the current architectures, they'll be heavily reliant on $AXTI

Summary: Near-term bullish on AXTI, LITE, COHR through 2026-2027 as current architectures remain heavily reliant on InP substrates.

@jvthed210725 Not really, the US will engineer around the InP substrates bottleneck eventually.

It’s just that for 2026-2027 with the current architectures, they’ll be heavily reliant on $AXTI and companies like $LITE, $COHR.

@aleabitoreddit Well-positioned for a multi-year growth run.


Summary: Long AAOI: MSFT Maia 200 thermal/interconnect fix likely drives AAOI orders, plus AMZN Trainium ramp and 2026-2027 ASIC spend cycle set up a huge beat on forward revenue.

NP! If we look at mag7 ASICs, $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood suppliers had a run after the $META deal.

$AMZN Trainium is going to ramp up soon like $GOOGL and the recent hyperscaler $AAOI order was likely from them.

The alpha for $AAOI is that $MSFT Maia 200 orders were more of R&D spend and they delayed their roadmap (likely due to thermal and interconnect issues eg. 100,000 chips to connect without melting) and standard cabling wasn't working for Maia 200.

But this is bullish for $AAOI since $MSFT likely uses them for this fix and all of this ASIC spend will be occur in 2026-2027 + huge beat on forward revenue projections.

But $AMZN is providing the nice $4B floor for de-risking.

@aleabitoreddit Will look into these, thanks a lot 👍


Summary: Bullish BTC despite current downtrend; stablecoin issuers seen as isolated from crypto price weakness.

Good question, stablecoins are actually separate from the BTC downtrend, even though algorithmically this affects the marketcaps of companies/assets in the sector.

USDC/Tether increases in supply even as crypto prices go down. Institutions sell BTC for USDT/USDC while crypto is in a downtrend instead of holding it in bank accounts.

Especially in venture capital right now, lightspeed/sequioa/etc. are pouring money into stablecoin related companies like Neobanks, and lot of these investments pay dividends 6 months.-1 year later.

I'll write up a more in-depth thesis in another post but generally, I'm bullish on stablecoins and Bitcoin, and even if Bitcoin is in a downtrend, stablecoins + issuers are isolated.

@aleabitoreddit @Peter_JMarshall how about BTC downtrend right now, do you still think it will going down with the crypto industry?


$AXTI controls a huge percent of the world's InP supply and if those prices gets jacked up from hyperscaler buying direct for insurance-> handing them to $COHR, then it's more of an issue for Sumitomo. And AXT benefits from both layers of the bottlenecks

Summary: Long AXTI as InP bottleneck beneficiary on hyperscaler demand; COHR also flagged as running at max capacity.

I can see that if you look at China domestic markets only but not western AI ramp. So two things:

One is extreme ramp in general. Hyperscaler demand will always outstrip supply even with 6-inch InP wafers. So competitive alternative or not, demand doesn’t disappear but might get spread out through competitive alternatives in China’s domestic market.

The other is vertical integration. You mentioned $DOWA on the western side and especially InP. $AXTI controls a huge percent of the world’s InP supply and if those prices gets jacked up from hyperscaler buying direct for insurance-> handing them to $COHR, then it’s more of an issue for Sumitomo. And AXT benefits from both layers of the bottlenecks.  Xinyao/JFS entering the supply chain just makes adds one more player to the equation so it’s not doom and gloom. Eg memory (sk Hynix; MU, Samsung)

Of course these points might get thrown out the drain if China export controls and we’re looking at China domestic market only. But generally demand outstrips supply (eg. COHR is at max) even if we add in more players.

@aleabitoreddit Well, I'm scared of Chinese supply coming online
If Xinyao enters the supply chain then it's a wrap for AXT
https://t.co/LU4S76rQLs


Summary: Long NBIS: $24B mktcap is laughably cheap vs. hundreds-%-growth ARR scaling to $4-6B, 60-75% margins, $5B+ cash, and data-center tailwinds; selloff seen as opportunity.

Looks like there's also a selloff across all high-beta stocks right now too from $HOOD, $RKLB, to quantum. $NBIS sold off before the others so the 7% drop today on top of the existing 23%+ drop is icing on the cake.

24B marketcap... for a company scaling hundreds of %+ to $4-6B ARR on ~60-75% gross margins, $5B+ in cash, ownership in the billions for portfolio companies, amidst the US trillion dollar data center buildout is laughable.

But it's times like these where retail sadly gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how the ownership % goes up over time.  Wouldn't be surprised to see this number go up a lot.

$NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38% and I expect it to go up after this quarter. Keep an eye.