Summary: Sees AMD's 8.2% tweet-driven drop as a buy opportunity.

@LibertadEterno Yeah, $AMD dropping 8.2% off a tweet is screaming buy opportunity for me at least. I could be wrong

@aleabitoreddit You think this is an overreaction?


Summary: Buying META post-earnings selloff as algo-driven and fundamentals intact/better than expected; references GOOGL at $145 as similar opportunity.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Internet Content & Information'

So with $META at least, my take is that EPS $1.05 vs est. $6.67 was the primary trigger algorithmic selloff immediately after earning report since they didn't get the $7.25 EPS one-time tax nuance.

Option related flows and mechanical hedging by MMs triggered -> short stock to stay hedged and there's day 2 selling + retail flush.

Everyone needs some "narrative" to explain that drop so in this case, it was "omg $META spending money on capex on AI!", even though it's just stupid and earnings were amazing.

Drop was algorithmic and fundamentals are not just in-tact, they're better than expected. Of course people read the narratives and this leads to more panic-selling, but once people digest the information, they'll see the selloff is stupid.

So I'm taking advantage of the drop. Better to ignore the media narrative and go with what's actually there like  with $GOOGL at $145.

We can have another argument whether or not $META AI is crap or not and capex is going into a black hole across the board but fundamentals are intact and growing.

@aleabitoreddit Metas risk is llama not paying off and everyone becoming best friends with chat gpt instead of real life friends


go with what's actually there like with $GOOGL at $145


we'll likely see long tail demand for copper and copper life extension, although Credo does have optical dsp verticals

Summary: Nuanced long CRDO on long-tail copper/AEC demand + optical DSP optionality; long AXTI on optical component bottleneck constraining scale-out.

Tons of people misinterpreted the "cableless comment", though the main drop was the $AMZN color change misinformation.

So you've nailed the bear case for $CRDO, but we've always known this. My position is nuanced since I see $AXTI and others bottle necking optical components required for scale out. (especially now that the Western supply chain in Sumitomo got export control nuked yesterday, largely required for optical buildout)

We'll likely see long tail demand for copper and copper life extension, although Credo does have optical dsp verticals.

@aleabitoreddit Isn't the concern more that once we hit 400G per lane, AEC can't keep up and scale-up moves to optical? So while AEC demand is going vertical now, don't know how long it lasts for.

I doubt anyone could have misinterpreted Jensen's "cableless" comment considering 5 mins later he


I see $AXTI and others bottle necking optical components required for scale out

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'


I personally rotated my $META calls to Mar/Apr. Just so there's more time for recovery Dec/Jan.

Summary: Holds long META calls rolled to Mar/Apr to allow time for price recovery.

@ngmax856734 I personally rotated my $META calls to Mar/Apr. Just so there’s more time for recovery Dec/Jan.

@aleabitoreddit Not quite related but pretty worried for my Jan 2026 Meta Calls


Summary: Still holding TGT into Nov 19 ER / Nov 12 dividend catalyst; LTC play ongoing pending government shutdown end and ETF approval.

I've been posting about $NBIS recently because of the 30% drop that I forgot to talk about other stocks for awhile! Upside on the drop to $94 was insane, even if you didn't catch the true bottom.

Near term catalyst posts that I mentioned still stands for $LTC to $TGT since others ask about it.

$TGT Nov 12th dividend catalyst, I'd personally hold but since it already went up 8%+ on 28%-32% IV, I don't see many issues holding another 2 weeks since ER is Nov 19th or just trimming some. Up to you.

For $LTC and others, the play is still ongoing, just need to wait for government shutdown to finish and for the ETF to be approved.

I just did not expect a 1 month government shutdown so ETFs got delayed.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you as always my lord

Btw are you still in $TGT? That play aged well but I'm wondering if I should take profits and rotate into new plays


For $LTC and others, the play is still ongoing, just need to wait for government shutdown to finish and for the ETF to be approved


Summary: LPTH top long of 2026 with monopoly on bottleneck fix; META hurt by war-driven selloffs in non-defense names.

Nice! $LPTH is my favorite long of 2026 so far! I never thought I’d find something that would beat $NBIS.

It’s also safer than $AXTI since it’s US supply chain this time but also has a monopoly over this bottleneck fix.

On a side note, my $META positions are getting wrecked lol. Imminent US invasion of Iran + war usually causes a selloffs of anything non defense, oil, and safety stocks


my $META positions are getting wrecked lol. Imminent US invasion of Iran + war usually causes a selloffs of anything non defense, oil, and safety stocks


Summary: Neocloud sector oversold; CIFR and peers mispriced despite Mag7 contracts providing de-risking and long-term revenue visibility.

Agreed.

Companies like $CIFR are trading like the  $AMZN, $GOOGL deals never happened.

In the whole Neocloud sector, we’re seeing a crash despite de-risking and long term revenue visibility across the board with Mag7 contracts.

$ORCL, $CRWV, and some individual names made sense given OpenAI exposure but it just dragged the rest of the sector alongside it.


In the whole Neocloud sector, we're seeing a crash despite de-risking and long term revenue visibility across the board with Mag7 contracts

Neocloud sector basket of HPC/AI cloud names


Both are undervalued I'd just keep positions in $META and $NBIS as is

Summary: Both META and NBIS are undervalued; hold positions in both.

@mcwalker747 @retail_mourinho Both are undervalued I’d just keep positions in $META and $NBIS as is

@aleabitoreddit @retail_mourinho Hi Serenity - really like your explanations 👍.  If you had $1000 in NBIS and same in META would you cash either in to buy the other at current value?  Or just keep both as is?


$NBIS is direct to $MSFT full stack and can actually increase their gross margins over time. Nebius is #1 from the very start, even beating out $CRWV and long term profitability from full stack will shine when it comes to earnings vs speculation.

Summary: Long NBIS on direct full-stack HPC model with expanding margins; cautious/bearish on CRWV execution and IREN's HPC pivot margin compression.

$IREN has good margins for crypto mining and large GW capacity but that doesn’t translate directly into HPC.

They’re going the $CIFR $WULF route in the meantime with middleware orchestration funneling to hyper scalers but that cuts into margins a lot in the long run.

$NBIS is direct to $MSFT full stack and can actually increase their gross margins over time.

Everyone points to $CRWV as the example to minor pivots but the harsh reality as we learned recently is that if many miners try building their own orchestration and stack, they will likely fail.

$ORCL is the perfect example of the software moat where if a $800B hyperscaler has trouble how would a $4B bitcoin miner pivot, or a $100m microcap like $SLNH do it.

If they go direct, a lot of people estimating bitcoin miner fundamentals use $CRWV in terms of translating GW to revenue/profit, but the actual returns will likely be underwhelming during the execution.

Nebius is #1 from the very start, even beating out $CRWV (from their most recent whitepaper with gpu utilization) and long term profitability from full stack will shine when it comes to earnings vs speculation.

@aleabitoreddit Great insights on orchestration layer. I used to like $CRWV a lot until i saw their leverage for data center rent, and acquisition, high energy cost -- which all has material impact on margins. Margin is the name of the game here which is why I liked $IREN. They have good


the actual returns will likely be underwhelming during the execution


$IREN has good margins for crypto mining and large GW capacity but that doesn't translate directly into HPC. They're going the $CIFR $WULF route in the meantime with middleware orchestration funneling to hyper scalers but that cuts into margins a lot in the long run.


Summary: Holds RDDT long bought at $190; bullish because of ubiquitous user base.

Yeah I always underestimate tax harvesting effects from hedge funds/institutions.

Whenever a stock like $ETOR goes 2% lower, I think "it can't get any lower than this" then it does. This only applies end of year for Oct/Nov/early December for stocks down on the year.

Yeah I bought $RDDT at $190 on Friday before it recovered to $195, it's definitely here to stay since everyone uses it lol.

@aleabitoreddit Respect for posting the L's publicly. Tax harvesting October/November is so real, I've gotten crushed before ignoring that pattern. $RDDT looking interesting around $190, valuation finally makes more sense than it did at $200 when everyone was screaming buy.


Summary: Strongly bullish NBIS; endorses Dec 2027 $200 strike calls hitting.

@Perugius__ Oh yeah that's fine risk management for $NBIS swapping out few month expiry to 2 years out.

Strongly believe Dec 2027 $200 calls will hit!

New update, I busted… 💔😔
@aleabitoreddit I have failed 🙁👎

Sold my $nbis mar calls for a -30% loss don’t see a future for them unless $nbis hits $120 by next week so I just switched them to Dec 17 2027 $200 calls might as well ride it out full port.😮💨😲😼


Summary: Bullish NBIS on institutional accumulation pattern (38→42% ownership) similar to HOOD pre-rally; implies continued institutional buying to 60-80%.

It’s how institutions acquire more shares on $NBIS. If you read my last post they were at 38.3% ownership -> now 42.2% despite dropping share price.

Mechanical flows down + retail capitulation-> dark pools/block trades -> institutional accumulation.

It was always low for Nebius which powers $MSFT azure, Meta and AI infra and during times like these is how they get to the 60-80% mark like they did with $HOOD before the massive rally to $100+.

@aleabitoreddit It's insane how they let it drop so far.
But it is what it is.
I'm basically almost all in $NBIS


like they did with $HOOD before the massive rally to $100+


Summary: Near-term IREN wins on capacity timing (1+ GW H1 2026); longer-term NBIS achieves parity with higher margins from full-stack approach.

So just a quick qualitative reply, $IREN does frontload connected capacity and if you go from that standpoint (eg. 1+ GW H1 2026) vs. 1 GW from $NBIS H2 2026, $IREN wins and should be using that time to sign more contracts.

Longer term, Nebius achieves capacity parity between the two and has higher margins from full-stack vs. pure iaas and you saw this from the revenue per mw from the $MSFT contract.

I remember doing a quantitative breakdown on power costs with margins and found that utilization/orchestration mattered vs.  cheap power during that Oracle TI fiasco.

 Fun fact about $NBIS, they have new behind the meter approaches with dataone on their greenfield sites with power generation on their 300 MW facility in NJ., but probably lags near term to $IREN.

I'm not an energy expert so I won't personally go into projections regarding natural gas pipelines conversion estimates, so just going with connected/contracted capacity projections from management.

For $GLXY agreed about the crypto accounting. That wasn't a factor when doing weighting.

@aleabitoreddit @CarineMorneau12 $NBIS wins in software and locations (that's a high plus), but loses in own power generation and amount of it to $IREN. Yet, it's fair, if we consider IREN still has some BTC mining operations (worth 0 basically).

At first, I also got caught up with $GLXY and the fact that


Longer term, Nebius achieves capacity parity between the two and has higher margins from full-stack vs. pure iaas


Summary: Long POET in ~6 months, ALMU ~1 year out as InP workaround plays; RKLB directionally correct if patient.

My opinion around $POET and $ALMU is that inp workaround is 2-3 year timeframe in 2028-2029.

They dont have hyperscaler qualifications and aren’t in modern ASIC architectures, so Poet is 6 months early, $ALMU is 1 year early.

Retail favorites like $RKLB are often a year ahead of time but they’re directionally right if you wait long enough.

I’d probably enter $POET in 6 months and $ALMU further out, but if $AXTI situation becomes severe maybe they get fastracked.

So both great longs, it’s just a waiting game since it’s extremely extremely early into the cycle

@aleabitoreddit $ALMU which might be the InP workaround imo


Retail favorites like $RKLB are often a year ahead of time but they're directionally right if you wait long enough


Summary: Long SSYS as the structural supplier for humanoid robots tied to OpenAI robotics push.

@pepemoonboy Thanks! I'm just following public information after the OpenAI robotics push for $SSYS.

It was already up 6% since I posted. But this one is a great long as they're the skeleton/frames of all the humanoid robots.


Summary: Bullish SSYS as an under-the-radar robotics play on humanoid production ramp from Atlas/Optimus.

@pepemoonboy Yeah my AI bottleneck one in $AXTI has been doing well.

Up 78% since posting and 20% today.

AI bottlenecks are pretty obvious but robotics ones like $SSYS are very under the radar until humanoid production from Atlas to Optimus ramp up. https://t.co/tAgC1q7bss

@aleabitoreddit AND ANOTHA ONE https://t.co/gUxCJKLFmm


There's nothing wrong with holding ETFs and Leaps on stuff like $META. That is probably the safest upside thing to do

Summary: Endorses holding META via ETFs and LEAPS as a safe upside play.

@WZRDtheWise @blu400_ There’s nothing wrong with holding ETFs and Leaps on stuff like $META.

That is probably the safest upside thing to do, and everyone has different risk profiles.


Summary: Still bullish NBIS; expects position to grow to ~$2M over a year, implying significant price appreciation ahead.

@Bobbydoo8 glad to hear it! 10% is just the start with $NBIS, I probably expect my position to be ~$2M in a year or so.

@aleabitoreddit Once again, because of your conviction on $NBIS I bought in and made a 10% profit!! Just wanted to give a huge shoutout again to your analysis and taking your time to teach why a trade is good!


Summary: Deal is net negative for NVDA and CRWV on moat narrative changes; net positive for AMD, TSM and others.

@yield_addicted For the deal, I'd say net negative: $NVDA, $CRWV (Nvda centric)

Net positive (almost everything else): $AMD, NBIS, CIFR, IREN, TSM, etc.

The 2.5% drop makes sense off moat narrative changes.

@aleabitoreddit Meanwhile, $NVDA droped 2.5% which makes zero sense to me, while still holding 80-85%  of the market


Net positive (almost everything else): $AMD


Net positive (almost everything else): ... TSM


Summary: NBIS on track for 100B market cap within a year on mind-numbing revenue growth; AMZN and ORCL to sign contracts soon as hyperscaler adoption follows META.

@soulbiri1 Real possibility it happens in a year. $NBIS is just growing at mind numbing rates and other hyperscalers like $AMZN, $ORCL will start signing contracts soon following META.

One of the first times I've seen a company grow revenue this fast.

@aleabitoreddit Passed a 30B market cap! 100B seems inevitable in a few years from now, maybe even sooner.


other hyperscalers like $AMZN, $ORCL will start signing contracts soon following META


Summary: Agrees on AMZN/META longs and MSTR bottoming; swings BULL near $13; avoids RIVN and TSLA on fundamentals.

Uh I would not tell followers about CSPs on 2x leveraged ETFs especially on $MSTR, which is volatile enough. If they get assigned with volatility decay it might get messy, though I do agree MSTR is bottoming.

I'd agree on most though like AMZN or META, usually I swing trade $BULL low $13.

I wouldn't touch $RIVN or $TSLA cause of fundamentals.

Stocks I’ll be looking to sell some cash secured puts on this week if we hit these price levels:

$MSTU sub $4
$RIVN sub $14.5
$BULL sub $14
$MSTX sub $17
$SOXL sub $29
$HOOD sub $115
$ETHU sub $110
$AMD sub $153
$AMZN sub 215
$MSTR sub $300
$COIN sub $300
$TSLA sub $400
$META


I wouldn't touch $RIVN or $TSLA cause of fundamentals


Summary: Long LITE as the play on Google TPU v7 Ironwood photonics ramp.

@ABC12D2 $LITE for exposure to TPU v7 ironwood ramp up

@aleabitoreddit Who do you like for photonics?


Summary: Bullish NBIS; author timing bottom to add a large position, calling any 7%+ drop an overreaction given dilution already priced in.

If you're scared about $NBIS remember **DILUTION WAS ALREADY PRICED IN**

The $MSFT contract was 17B+, increasing forward rev by 300%+ for over 7 years. $NBIS gained 45% on the day not 250%+.

It's positive if they're using it for the MSFT contract instead of just holding it like $GME or $AMC.

$ASTS also launched a capital raise for product deployment and their stock went from $22 -> $18 -> $50.

---

(what this means is use this time to add to your positions). Dilution was already priced in and if the stock drops 7%+ it's an overreaction.

I'm just trying to time the bottom to add another large chunk of $NBIS from retail panic sellers.


Summary: Bullish SNAP long-term on expected net income improvement from cost cuts / monetization; wait for pullback first.

@capybara_830 uhh I'd wait for a pullback, but $SNAP net income will probably shoot up a ton after deleting everyone's memories or making people pay.

The amount of money they spend on Google Cloud is absolutely absurd. Their revenue numbers are great, net profit not so much.

@aleabitoreddit Is it a good time to open a position in $SNAP or wait for a pullback. Thanks man!


Summary: Extremely high conviction long NBIS; 30% position size justified by undervaluation vs forward revenue.

@jMORfinance 30% means I have extremely high conviction that $NBIS goes up and that it's undervalued relative to forward revenue.

@aleabitoreddit 30% means you win or lose based on that one name


Summary: Bullish on TSM, HOOD, RKLB, CREDO, NBIS; also sees SG rebounding from oversold short-term option flows.

@moonman6577 I'm not too bullish on $SG. If I had to pick stocks I'm bullish on it would be $TSM, $HOOD, $RKLB, $CREDO, $NBIS and others.

But I see $SG rebounding since it's oversold from short-term option flows and I simply just like their salad.

@aleabitoreddit Why are you so bullish on $SG? Just curious. I’m still holding a ton of $UPWK since $11.80


Credo Technology Group trades as CRDO on NASDAQ


I see $SG rebounding since it's oversold from short-term option flows


I still really like it regardless since it's more of an inevitability minus execution uncertainty, just need to wait it out for a year or two

Summary: Still long AAOI over 1–2 years despite near-term headwinds; views upside as an inevitability.

@Motorphy @B38B37 $AAOI is heavily tethered to $MSFT Maia and they just heavily lowered estimates (hence why $MRVL went down 4% today).

I still really like it regardless since it’s more of an inevitability minus execution uncertainty, just need to wait it out for a year or two.

@aleabitoreddit @B38B37 What do you think of AAOI, hasn't been performing but people grouping them together.


Hence why I'm comfortable with $TSM and related semis or AI buildout $NBIS

Summary: Comfortable holding TSM and NBIS; geopolitical risk of Taiwan invasion is overstated under US security umbrella.

Not really. China won’t invade Taiwan under Trump administration or others since $TSM is one of the largest national security risks to United States.

There’s a reason US doesn’t have universal healthcare and any country that might invade would find out why + get flattened to the ground.

Hence why I’m comfortable with $TSM and related semis or AI buildout $NBIS


Summary: Long CIFR and NBIS on locked-in Google/Amazon/Meta/Microsoft contracts; ORCL risky due to OpenAI tenant funding uncertainty; market mispricing creates buying opportunity in CIFR/NBIS.

The AI DC sector is extremely nuanced.

$ORCL is building capacity from debt based on backlog/credit worthiness of OpenAI which is the tenant.

OpenAI does not have the funds at the moment to fulfill its obligations and it's looking less likely to get it.

$CIFR is building out for $GOOGL, $AMZN.

Google/Amazon does have the funds and these contracts are locked in.

$NBIS is building out for $META, $MSFT.

Microsoft/Meta does have the funds and these contracts are locked in for capacity.

But the market is currently treating all the backlog like it comes from OpenAI (unsustainable build) which is why it's a good opportunity to buy into mispricing of individual components of the sector.

@aleabitoreddit I thought given the strong backlog ORCL posted, it would bode well for neocloud sector. the demand is insatiable and for real


$CIFR is building out for $GOOGL, $AMZN. Google/Amazon does have the funds and these contracts are locked in


$NBIS is building out for $META, $MSFT. Microsoft/Meta does have the funds and these contracts are locked in for capacity


HIMS is an easy buy + hold at $42. Short interest ⏫ to 34.59% of float and ~$3 Billion + USD / 9.7B market cap company. Growth will ultimately screw the short position.

Summary: Long HIMS at $42; high short interest + unpriced Zava European customers + strong revenue growth will force short squeeze.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

$HIMS is an easy buy + hold at $42. Short interest ⏫ to 34.59% of float and ~$3 Billion + USD / 9.7B market cap company.

Hedge funds shorting a profitable, growth company like $HIMS while $IONQ and $OKLO — both with 0 revenue, 10B+ market caps is the definition of a stupid short.

HIMS acquired 1.3M+ customers across Europe through the Zava acqusition, which forecasts haven't priced in yet. Currently they're doing:

- 2024 Revenue~$1.48 billion (up 69%)
- TTM Revenue (mid-2025)~$2.01 billion (up ~88.7%)
- Q2 2025 Revenue $544.8 million (+73% YoY).

Growth will ultimately screw the short position.

TLDR: HIMS is an easy buy + hold until the shorts unwind.


Summary: Long AXTI and SMTOY as the InP substrate duopoly bottlenecking the entire AI optical interconnect buildout; AXTI also controls upstream laser-grade feedstock.

"Bottleneck within a Bottleneck": Indium Phosphide

$AXTI | $SMTOY is a duopoly.

They control 60%+ of the world's InP substrates as the bottleneck of the AI buildout.

What's even more alarming? This is dependent on: Indium Phosphide.

InP is a Monopoly. 78% control by $AXTI / China.

Here's the bottleneck within a bottleneck:

The InP substrates is already a duopoly between Japanese and Chinese entities. However, upstream production of laser-grade feedstock required by companies like Sumitomo is dominated by $AXTI (again) and  Chinese companies.

Here's the major issue:

The AI industry is extremely reliant on photonics to scale. Whether,  transceivers are "InP-based" or "Silicon-based" the photon source remains: Indium Phosphide.

As AI clusters move from 10,000 to 100,000+ GPUs, the "copper bottleneck" is forcing a total shift to optical interconnects. This makes InP more critical to AI scaling than almost any other single material.

On top of that, laser-grade feedstock must be at least 6N (99.9999%) pure. Even trace amounts of impurities (Silicon, Sulfur, Zinc), cannot be used like they do in other segments like LED. And most research probably confuses laser-grade feedstock with regular InP outputs.

Sumitomo is arguably the most famous name in the InP substrate market. They hold a massive market share in the high-end laser substrate segment. Yet trade data suggest they are increasingly reliant on external feedstock for Indium Phosphide from companies like $DOWA and from China. (They're likely still included in feedstock ownership lists bc of captive recycling and reserves)

So if the entire Western AI buildout feels safe regarding a Japanese company as a duopoly, think again.

The source of the bottleneck is bottlenecked by Chinese suppliers like $AXTI and Chinese companies.

If we look at production there's are estimates from deep research breakdown of estimate controls:

Vital Materials - 35% (Merchant)
- Vital acquired Fanya Metal Exchange inventory (3,600 tonnes of Indium) in 2020 gave them large control over the global Indium market. They have leveraged this to become the largest producer of InP polycrystal. Dominant cost leader; controls raw Indium supply (Fanya stocks).

$AXTI - 25% (Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology)
- Primarily Captive.  Most of their polycrystal production is consumed by their own crystal  growth furnaces to make wafers. However, they also sell raw materials  and compounds to the merchant market, making them a hybrid player.

They're the only company in the world that goes from mines, refineries -> InP substrate output, which is an absolutely crazy bottleneck given they own both the raw materials into InP substrate controls. Feeds own wafer production; key non-Japan source.

Zhuzhou Keneng New Material - 18%

- Keneng has achieved "mass production of polycrystalline indium phosphide" and possesses "highly integrated automatic polycrystalline production  capacity". They are a key recipient of China's export quotas for Indium.  Pure-play synthesis specialist; major exporter.

Then Outside:

$DOWA - 12%

- The biggest supplier out of any Western company (yeah Japanese). Deep roots in mining (Akita Zinc), so they're the leading  supplier of high-purity metal organics and compounds.

The "source" for Japan Inc. (Sumitomo, JX)

Wafer Technology Ltd - 5%
- A subsidiary of IQE plc. Critical strategic asset for NATO-aligned supply chains that require non-Chinese feedstock, even though they're going through asset liquidations right now.

InPACT (France) - 3%

- InPACT states they produce polycrystalline ingots via Horizontal Gradient Freeze (HGF) using high-pressure synthesis so they meet requirements from (Nokia, Ericsson) and some European defense sectors.

Rest of World - 2%

This includes major substrate makers (Coherent, Sumitomo), small-scale research production, and emerging players in Korea or Taiwan who are attempting  to break the monopoly.

The reality is that 78% of the global capacity for laser-grade InP feedstock is located in China.

The demand for optical components already exceeds supply/production by multiple factors. This is pre-ramp too. The entire AI buildout is bottlenecked by two companies.

But 1/4th of the materials comes from: $AXTI. And ~1/3rd of InP Substrate outputs again comes from laser-grade feedstock.

The entire AI buildout is dependent on some random $700m company that serves as both the bottleneck of a bottleneck and the bottleneck.

It's both national security issue to scale up InP production both for substrate and laser-grade feedstock.

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:

1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)

Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.

Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and https://t.co/8mqrgONJbb


$AXTI | $SMTOY is a duopoly. They control 60%+ of the world's InP substrates as the bottleneck of the AI buildout.


the recent sell-off looks like a solid buying opportunity... even just estimating $7.72 EPS from ~$20.0B revenue, 30x P/E (they've traded 35-40 before), would be $231.60/share from $85 if you want to wait 2 years

Summary: Long MRVL: selloff on Trainium/Maia displacement rumors is misinterpreted noise; physical impossibility of mid-cycle swap, purchase orders in hand, $231 PT in 2 years on Maia 300 ramp alone.

Finally took a deeper look at $MRVL.

My first reaction: What are the markets and analysts/news smoking?

Revenue derived from Maia ramp is literally double $MRVL's FY 2025 revenue.

If we look at the numbers, it's staggering:

Marvell is modeled to take in $10-$12B in revenue (Fubon) in Microsoft Maia ramp in 2027. Alone.

To put that in perspective, Marvell's FY 2025 revenue was $5.77B.

No matter how I look at it, Marvell looks like a strong Broadcom competitor (after Celestial acqusition) and a terrific long.

But... The Information / Benchmark released news that:

- Microsoft is negotiating with Broadcom to displace Marvell in future generations.
- Amazon Trainium 3 and 4 designs went to Taiwanese competitor Alchip Technologies.

causing a massive selloff.

After looking into it more, how is this even possible?

"Marvell Technology declines after Benchmark Equity Research downgrades the stock, citing a loss of Amazon’s AI chip business."

"Benchmark believes Marvell lost Amazon’s Trainium 3 and 4 designs to Alchip, despite Marvell’s recent forecast of strong data-center growth."

- Trainium 3 production are locked to Marvell's design. You can't "swap" to Alchip without designing an entirely new chip from scratch.  If you want to share scope, sure but the wording is absolutely atrocious.

$MRVL already secured Trainium 3 orders from $AMZN throughout 2026, why in the world would Amazon cancel them all and then go with a new vendor?

There can be different scope, additional design services, etc. but the framing from all the news sounds like $MRVL is being displaced.

Benchmark itself later walked it back materially after causing damage (via more "industry discussions") and said Marvell did not lose Trainium 3/4 outright, but that Amazon added Alchip for additional design support while Marvell retains a position.

But the damage has already been done to stock price.

As for The Information report on $MSFT Maia loss to Broadcom this is sensational journalism.

JP Morgan later literally came out and basically said it's all false, "there has been no ASIC program share loss".

On the Microsoft deal, markets completely missed the nuance between "immediate displacement" and "future generation" discussions.

The physics of this make an immediate swap impossible from Maia to Broadcom without incredible multiple-year delays.

To replace Marvell with Broadcom for the Maia 300 now would require scrapping the entire 2nm mask set, redesigning the I/O ring, and restarting a 3-year validation cycle. Marvell’s specific SerDes Is is also embedded in the chip’s I/O ring (retimers and switches comms). If Microsoft targets a 2027 ramp for Maia 300, the chip must be in validation phase by mid-to-late 2026. This implies the physical design is already frozen or nearing freeze today.

A new ASIC design with $AVGO today (Dec 2025) would face this minimum timeline:

- Architecture & RTL (12 months): Logic definition and IP selection.
- Physical Design to tape ot (9-12 months)
- Mask prod & Fab (3-5 months): TSMC 2nm cycle.
- Post-Silicon validation (6-9 months)
Total Time: ~30–38 months.

Even if this is sped up by many months, these "Discussions with $AVGO " not be ready for volume deployment until 2028 at the very earliest. To hit the 2027 ramp timelines, Microsoft must ship the Marvell design.

Then there's Microsoft’s rack infrastructure uses Marvell’s "Alaska" retimers and DSPs in the cables.

Microsoft would have to:

- Re-qualify the signal integrity of every cable and backplane in the rack.
- Rip out Marvell retimers from the motherboard and replace them with Broadcom versions

As well as change their custom liquid-cooling rack  "sidekick", which was specified toward specific distribution of the $MRVL Maia chip’s floorplan. A $AVGO chip would have a completely different physical floorplan and thermal density and they'd need to regineer the rack.

So market are completely trolling if when they price in immediate displacement risk and trade on TMZ-style discussion gossip rumors that Microsoft wanted to explore options.

$MRVL CEO even went out and said they have "purchase orders in hand" for the entirety of the next year's forecast. 2026 forecasts are probably light because $AMZN and $MSFT both faced delays on their ramp.

But if you look at longer term Q4 2026 into 2027, we  just from their orders and Maia 300 alone: even just estimating $7.72 EPS from ~$20.0B revenue, 30x P/E (they've traded 35-40 before), would be $231.60/share from $85 if you want to wait 2 years.

So TLDR: The whole “replacement” theory is extremely completely misinterpreted and is just noise. Normally, I wouldn't write a whole post on it, but seeing The Information and other news pop up again, and again, spreading misinformation through sensational wording is just crazy.

There's a physical impossibility of a mid-cycle swap and market misunderstanding of displacement. So the recent sell-off looks like a solid buying opportunity.

As for future discussions, of course any company would want vendor diversification. $MRVL can go do the same with $META MTAI future generations too if Meta wants to multi-source away from Broadcom.

If you model just by single project Maia 300 alone and ignore media noise, $MRVL looks incredibly promising.


Summary: Strong buy on ALAB as a recovery play off $250 high; higher margins than NVDA and triple-digit Y/Y growth justify shares here.

@IncrediBadly $ALAB is an amazing buy. Higher margins than $NVDA and growing triple digits Y/Y.

It's already down from it's $250 high, great recovery buy. Around here probably wouldn't do options but shares can't hurt for waiting.

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on ALAB? Was lucky enough to get in before the recent run up, but wondering now if it's just about where it should be in the short term.


Summary: Long GOOGL to $220+ EOY on blowout earnings and buybacks; still holding IBIT position with asymmetric upside.

For WSB charts I posted:

On $GOOGL, realized profit was $101,428+, and lots of unrealized profit since I expect GOOGL to hit $220+ EOY if tech rally continues ( $META $APPL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $SPOT)

Earnings were a complete blowout and they still have 70B+ in buybacks https://t.co/G6jrKAyumE

---

On the $IBIT WSB trade,  sitting on $44K+ or so unrealized profit after Friday's 3% drop.

$6557+ in realized profit just from selling covered calls in 2 months.

Same rate would be ~157K+ over 2 years.  Low risk, asymmetric upside, esp with $DJT buying 2B+ worth. https://t.co/BPa8uSvV1s

---

On $HIMS, sold early only realized $70K gain but again a lot are unrealized profit.

These are just examples of shorter trades I post on WSB in a two-three month timeframe.

My most successful trades I haven't posted before on WSB. https://t.co/Tlhc9IxdY8


sitting on $44K+ or so unrealized profit after Friday's 3% drop. Low risk, asymmetric upside


Summary: NBIS is way undervalued relative to its forward potential; hold/buy.

@DannyPhantomTT @soulbiri1 I’d personally wait it out, I think $NBIS is way undervalued relative to forward potential

@aleabitoreddit @soulbiri1 Thanks for your call aswell, your conviction is inspiring

I bought a random call near the bottom and not sure if I should sell cause it's so random🤣 https://t.co/QPN0aL0tEr


it's a legitimate recovery but right now. Did the math earlier in cost structure + FCF boost from it

Summary: Bullish ZETA on cost structure improvements and FCF boost supporting a legitimate recovery.

@wealthmatica Eh don’t let the commenters scare you off, it’s a legitimate recovery but right now. Did the math earlier in cost structure + FCF boost from it

https://t.co/vuJfLCh80l

@aleabitoreddit I’m sure there’s a thesis somewhere in there.

I’m going back to $ZETA


Summary: Post-drop AVGO and NVDA are buys; AI trade thesis intact despite market treating recent moves as bubble popping.

So my takeaway from $AVGO earnings is that it's mainly misunderstood backlog numbers.

Overall thesis on AI trade from $NVDA GPU ecosystem and Mag7 ASIC ecosystem is in-tact but the market is treating it like a bubble popping + terrible miss.

We're just going from AI is the next big thing -> Ai is a bubble -> AI is the next big thing -> AI is a bubble.

Volatility and -13%+ drops makes several names a good buy.


Overall thesis on AI trade from $NVDA GPU ecosystem and Mag7 ASIC ecosystem is in-tact


Summary: Bullish XYZ on Bitcoin recovery, holiday payment volumes, low P/E and S&P inclusion; MSTR also named as a valid exposure play at current levels.

Sounds like a decent idea. $XYZ has indirect relationship with Bitcoin which should recover December imo. Fundamentals should be improving from Black Friday + holiday seasons upping processing volume from Square/Stripe others. XYZ P/E is pretty low and it's in S&P too so downside risk is low.

 IV is relatively low further out eg. (4/17 is 46% IV) so upside on recovery would be a good amount at first glance.

I would have bought $MSTR shares at this level for exposure but XYZ is another good proxy play.

@aleabitoreddit Hey homie, I know you probably get people bugging you about different tickers every day, so I don't want to be annoying. But my $PATH calls printed today, and was thinking of dumping some of the profit into $XYZ while it is down. Just wondering if you had any thoughts on it. Ty!


I would have bought $MSTR shares at this level for exposure


$HIMS just need to keep increasing revenue with Zava acquisition and fundamentals will cause shorts to cover on every dip... short positions covering over time to $20B+ mc

Summary: Bullish HIMS; Zava acquisition drives revenue, shorts cover on dips, market cap grinds to $20B+.

Tailwind would be triple rate cut. I thought testosterone product launch + PPI would be the main trigger but SI increased from 36 -> 42. Stock still went up when I posted at $48 to $57 though.

$HIMS just need to keep increasing revenue with Zava acquisition and fundamentals will cause shorts to cover on every dip.

A surprise 150% SS would be an acquisition or something but otherwise looks like one of the gradual ones with short positions covering over time to $20B+ mc.

@aleabitoreddit @GrassKaniKani do you think the catalyst for $HIMS short squeezing could be the launch of HRT menopause launch later this year?


Summary: Bullish LULU around $160; expects Nov-Dec seasonal recovery despite muted rebound due to 58% YTD decline.

@soulbiri1 I like $LULU around these levels.

Could drop more next month but should recover Nov -> December because sector usually performs best around then.

Recovery should be more muted though from previous years from tax loss averaging cause it’s down 58% ytd.

@aleabitoreddit I love you Aleabito senpai.

What are your thoughts on $LULU at 160


Summary: Holding Jan/Mar calls on NBIS; confident in 43% recovery driven by rate cuts, seasonality, and earnings.

I'm holding my Jan/Mar calls. If a stock can do down 30% in a week off no news, it can also go back up 43% in a short time with high beta stocks like $NBIS.

I'm still confident with 2x rate cut, seasonality, and earnings. There's been no material news (only positive ones in the past month), but we'll see what happens.

@aleabitoreddit Senpai, hypothetically if you had tried to catch the falling knife and opened Jan and Mar 26 calls ranging from $115-130, would you consider closing those at a loss and moving the capital to LEAPS?


Summary: Adopts bullish price targets on NBIS ($400/1Y), RKLB ($500/5Y), CRCL ($150/8M), and ALAB ($250/6M) from the quoted equity ranking table.

The Neocloud Sector Tierlist.

Post Q3 earnings + Market Sector Drop:

[S] Tier: $NBIS
[A] Tier:  $CIFR, $WULF, $IREN
[B] Tier: $GLXY, $CORZ
[C] Tier:  $APLD, $CLSK
[D] Tier: $WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI
[F] Tier, $CRWV*, $SLNH
[U] Tier: $GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF,  $HIVE, $RIOT **

Ranked in order from left to right.

* : Short-term pricing drops created compelling entries (e.g., $CRWV), but med-term (12m) attractiveness remains limited.

**: Uncertain, decided not to rate them (but put them in tierlist photo as F). Some pure miners haven't fully pivot into HPC yet + too much contract uncertainty.

Lot of people asked about updates post earnings, these are just personal thoughts based on weighted assessments of:

a. Contract visibility and revenue certainty
b. Resilience to macro tightening and credit conditions c. Balance sheet strength and margin profile
d. HPC buildout risk (capacity execution and orchestration)
e. Revenue growth trajectory (1–2 year horizon)
f. Current market capitalization relative to revenue ramp and infrastructure value

The whole Neocloud sector is compelling but some have clearly higher asymmetrical return over others as of Q3.

Based on the equity ranking table:

Here's a deeper analysis of each stock, alongside how I reposition my portfolio to capitalize on the market reset:

· $NBIS at $92, PT $400 / 1Y
· $RKLB at $43, PT $500 / 5Y
· $CRCL at $72, PT $150 / 8M
· $ALAB at $143.4, PT $250 / 6M
· $SNAP https://t.co/VZouD4jsBo


it's a pretty obvious negative given how much % margins it is for $IREN

Summary: Bearish IREN: expedited fees are a clear margin negative, and non-payment risks MSFT delays or contract termination.

On the expedited element alone, it’s a pretty obvious negative given how much % margins it is for $IREN.

And it’s even worse if they don’t pay it and face $MSFT delays + contract termination.

That’s just the objective/non-sugarcoated way to frame it. It’s false if you say everyone needs to pay that much % in expedited.

Sometimes there’s negatives about $IREN, not everything is overwhelmingly bullish.

@RJCcapital @aleabitoreddit @DeepValueBagger @Agrippa_Inv While I don’t think 2m expedited is a good thing, not paying it would be a bad thing. CRWV, DataOne both had delays in their buildout.

When I worked at ArgoAI during covid supply chain shortage, acceleration fee was just a bid to get the components on time. A public example was


it's undervalued right now, 2% adoption leads to a huge increase in revenue

Summary: SNAP is undervalued; even 2% memory monetization adoption drives meaningful revenue upside plus opex cuts from GCP cost reductions.

Bruh, I’ve been bull posting $SNAP too but adoption rate of memory monetization is probably single low digit at best.

Majority of people don’t have over 5 GB used.

So how are majority of 80% or even 25% (from your previous post) of the 943M monthly users paying for extra storage?

Also it’s been a generational wealth destroyer.

That being said it’s undervalued right now, 2% adoption leads to a huge increase in revenue but the core thing people miss is opex cuts from GCP costs from 9 GB wasteful hotdog videos.

$SNAP community…

I don’t know who hurt you…

But I won’t be talking about you anymore 😂


I've never seen any single company scale this incredibly fast before compared to $NBIS. Growing 700%+ Y/Y, when you're already doing $1B+ ARR from 300%+ Y/Y growth, is just unspeakably high growth. I haven't seen such a stupidly high potential stock sitting at a low marketcap before.

Summary: Strongly bullish NBIS on 700%+ Y/Y growth, $1B+ ARR, and Avride autonomous vehicle optionality; calls it uniquely high-potential at low market cap.

I've seen $HOOD, I've seen $META at IPO. Aside from maybe $NVDA, I've never seen any single company scale this incredibly fast before compared to $NBIS.

Growing 700%+ Y/Y, when you're already doing $1B+ ARR from 300%+ Y/Y growth, is just unspeakably high growth.

That's just the core business alone.

In my post above, Avride is at the precipice of scaling like Waymo with $UBER. If their Texas launch goes well, we might just see this pop up everywhere around the map.

Hard to give a price target. I normally don't bullpost a single stock but I haven't seen such a stupidly high potential stock sitting at a low marketcap before.

@aleabitoreddit I am so tempted to full port to NBIS. What price target do you give it in the next 3 and 5 years?


Summary: Bought HIMS on the dip at $50.7, embracing the volatility.

@DeepValueBagger I just added $HIMS today actually at $50.7 on the 14.34% drop

Embrace the volatility 🎢

While I am bullish for $HIMS fixing women menopause everywhere, I don't miss the price roller coaster. https://t.co/BDT12l8hNf


even with 10% dilution, it doesn't really change the fact as you mentioned Nebius has $8B midpoint ARR EOY 2026, they launched Robotaxis with Avride, $META $3B deal, Clickhouse is growing incredibly fast, and their other two subsidaries are growing 100% Y/Y... Institutional ownership is now probably closer to 52%... Painful hold at this point, but keep in mind it can move 35% on a random week

Summary: Long NBIS: strong fundamentals (ARR, META deal, subsidiaries growth, rising institutional ownership) despite ATM overhang/sector drag; painful hold but upside remains.

So from what I've seen personally with $NBIS, it's largely ATM overhang + sector drag + short term shorts, and large amounts of open interest expiring on the 19th.

For example, $CRWV was up 5.13% yesterday, while $NBIS was down 3.91% same day, and I'd attribute that to either shorts/ATMs.

It's a little unfortunate, even as the largest beneficiary of rate cuts (neocloud sector), $NBIS is down 2% today while other retail favorites like $RKLB are up 8%+.

Price action makes you doubt yourself sometimes, but even with 10% dilution, it doesn't really change the fact as you mentioned Nebius has $8B midpoint ARR EOY 2026, they launched Robotaxis with Avride, $META $3B deal, Clickhouse is growing incredibly fast, and their other two subsidaries are growing 100% Y/Y with Toloka benefiting from $META Scale acquisition.

Institutional ownership is now probably closer to 52%(bloomberg terminal 50's last month pre msci) from high 30's last quarter and institutions are definitely acquiring shares from retail capitulating.

Painful hold at this point, but keep in mind it can move 35% on a random week as one of the highest beta stocks in the market. (went from $100 to $140 to $95 to $130 in the span of 2-3 weeks).

@aleabitoreddit NBIS’ price action has been disgustingly detached from fundamentals lately. It’s at the same price 3 months ago but since then: 3 rate cuts, META deal, MSCI Inclusion, scaling up ARR to $7B-$9B, and analysts PT increased to avg $164. I don’t think it’s just the offering, momentum


$NBIS, $CIFR are my favorite two in the Neoclouder sector. Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns

Summary: Long both NBIS (top pick, full AI-cloud value chain, higher upside) and CIFR (safer, hyperscaler-backed annuity structure, capped but durable upside) in the Neocloud sector.

Appreciate, @accounting_ds for summarizing my opinion. I'll post a deeper dive into everything tomorrow.

$NBIS, $CIFR are my favorite two in the Neoclouder sector. CIFR sits right below Nebius though.

Nebius is top because it owns the full AI-cloud value chain for higher revenue potential and stronger returns, even though it forces them to handle orchestration, software, and GPU lifecycle risk instead of sticking to colocation.

I like $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from $AMZN and $GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. It also stays insulated from GPU procurement, management, and depreciation.

For CIFR's economics we get a a high-margin, annuity structure built on space, power, and cooling for hyperscalers. Risk-adjusted, it’s one of the safest names in the group. But the trade-off is capped upside

Long leases like 10Y, 15Y slow the revenue ramp and mute the payoff relative to full-stack Neocloud operators like NBIS that go from $145m quarterly revenue to $2.1B in a year.

@accounting_ds Curious Serenitys thoughts on $CIFR, I like $NBIS but come on now…


I like $CIFR because it avoids that entire risk surface and has backing from $AMZN and $GOOGL for long term revenue anchors. Risk-adjusted, it's one of the safest names in the group


Summary: Strong long NBIS: 1000%+ revenue growth, institutional accumulation, $400 PT; dip on no news doesn't change conviction.

Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted:

Retail panic.

Capitulation.

Liquidity.

I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD:

Here's what and why this is happening:

Nebius got put on Wall Street's radar after the MSFT 17-19 billion dollar deal last month. Before then institutional ownership was sitting in <30%'s due to a non-traditional public listing.

Meanwhile we were able to see Nebius's fundamentals exploding:

1. 🚀 1,000%+ forward revenue growth with 55-75% gross margins to 4-6B+ ARR.

2. 💼 Large ownership of companies like Clickhouse powering Anthropic, Meta, Lyft, etc.

3. ⚡ NBIS powering Microsoft Azure + likely more Mag7 infrastructure, the cash cows of Hyperscalers

4. 🌊 Huge moat from full-stack + software GPU orchestration, leading to higher gross margins.

5. 💸 Largest datacenter builtout in history, with Meta signing deals with CRWV, and other hyperscalers following-suit.  We've seen forward projections with TSM on this buildout, and they're blowout numbers.

6. 🏦 3X rate cuts boosting forward revenue projections.

Nebius is a screaming buy and a once-in-a-generational company in the marketing as a $26B company and $100/share.

We've seen this play with Robinhood, when they would have 50% below MC price targets, hit-pieces when share price was $20. Yet Robinhood grew from $150m quarterly revenue to $950m-1B, and market cap went from $15B to $130B and then became the darling of Wall Street.

Wall Street and institutional investors see this clearly with Nebius for the next year but don't have large positions yet.

However, retail only sees the dropping price, sensationalist articles about Oracle losing $100m trying to enter the space, and the current 100M revenue numbers instead of the projected $1B+/quarter.

So, even if price can seem like they're dropping off marginal trades are executed at lower prices, even if more shares get bought:

1. Retail panic-sells, gets margin liquidated.

2. Mechanical hedging from MM's from short-dated options (couterparty to retail selling CSPs or buying short dated calls) exacerbates downside, creating a sell-off)

3. MMs from Citadel to Virtu absorb the flow by buying from retail.

4. MMs hedge + rebalance by offload to insitutions in block trades + dark pools. (harvesting selloff by institutions)

5. Institutions get low-visibility accumulation while keeping price down. (eg. 100k shares sold by retail, and 150k shares bought by institutions, while price drops.)

Retail sees "red days" and thinks "no one’s buying" while accumulation continues quietly.

Retail sentiment is collapsing but fundamentals have only improved (eg. new Israel data center build out for more ~80m+ ARR based on estimates).

It's a slow, strategic process to accumulate a large percentage of a company's float as hedge funds and institutions see Nebius as a potential next 100B+ company.

The fundamentals haven’t changed - only the share price and retail sentiment have.

The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bull-case PT is still $400.

We've seen this move before:

- $ASTS ER drop from $58 -> $36, into $83.

- $GOOGL AI search drop from $170 -> $144 into $257.

- $HOOD Macro drop from $40 -> $28, into $135 https://t.co/hiItOTDfZu


it's priced as a small cap component manufacturer but has AI $MSFT Maia $AMZN trainium ramp and made in America as a great driver since it plays a critical part in the hyperscaler ASIC ecosystem. The marketcap is small enough to make me an investor for medium term though

Summary: Long AAOI medium-term: undervalued as small-cap but levered to MSFT Maia/AMZN Trainium hyperscaler ASIC ramp + US manufacturing angle; 30-35% margin assumptions.

Yeah I really, really like $LITE but it’s already priced in with a premium.

I only have relatively small positions in $AAOI though just because of execution risk in case a hyperscaler drops purchase orders + competition from Jabil.

That being said it’s priced as a small cap component manufacturer but has AI $MSFT Maia $AMZN trainium ramp and made in America as a great driver since it plays a critical part in the hyperscaler ASIC ecosystem.

This is just a qualitative investment, off rough estimates like 30-35% margins and assumptions of beating projections due to hyperscaler ramp in 2026.

The marketcap is small enough to make me an investor for medium term though.


Summary: Bought dips in Neocloud names NBIS and WYFI; advises buying Neocloud dips on noise.

@NoahIAvest Yeah I would just buy the dips on Neoclouds from noise like this.

$NBIS was an amazing buy on the 5% drop. Finally started positions in $WYFI on that 4% drop.

@aleabitoreddit You (and half of Finx) convinced me. Managed to exactly time the dip and entered with a for me large position at ~$116. Ready for the overtake.


Finally started positions in $WYFI on that 4% drop


Summary: Long BULL on 45% revenue growth and WSB retail base; also bullish HOOD on S&P inclusion and upcoming catalysts.

Now playing follow the lead.

Bought $100k of $BULL following $HOOD S&P.

Weird it dropped 2.4% on a $18 outperform price target, too many weekly calls IG.

Growing rev of 45% y/y similar to Hood, massive regarded retail base from WSB.

Short term risk is random Sept macro. https://t.co/mSkBpoxCMI

$HOOD added to S&P 500.

New product launch on Tuesday and banking coming soon.

Huge money flows coming into Robinhood given market cap soon. Might be PLTR v2.

This is just WSB instincts that go into DD! Some of you probably saw my deleted post guessing inclusion lol https://t.co/h8txi6mQD2


$HOOD added to S&P 500. New product launch on Tuesday and banking coming soon. Huge money flows coming into Robinhood given market cap soon.


$LPTH is early discovery at a $700m MC and is now my favorite long of 2026. I'm a happy shareholder on Lightpath's way to $10B+ MC.

Summary: Long LPTH as favorite 2026 pick; monopoly on Germanium-free Black Diamond glass for defense/drones, targeting $10B+ MC from ~$700M.

$LPTH is now up 25%.

Lightpath genuinely incredible and I suggest people read into this company.

Markets look at $KRKNF for single source Andruil exposure but Lightpath supplies to most major defense contractors from Andruil to Lockheed at 1/3rd the MC.

TAM is huge.

-> Own the monopoly on the alternative to a critical raw material that China just choked off

-> China produces ~60-70% of the world’s Germanium

-> own the proprietary material called Black Diamond (Chalcogenide glass) with the exclusive license with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory.

-> Black Diamond = performs like Germanium but uses zero Germanium.

-> Raytheon, Lockheed, and L3Harris  switches from Chinese supply chains to LightPath’s Black Diamond for their missile/drone programs.

-> Many other verticals outside of defense from Space Satellites, Robotaxis, Robotics, and others would use Black Diamond over Chinese supply chains

-> But they’re at full capacity from demand, backlogged for Stinger Missiles and Ghost drones for their War vertical

This is my own thought process that it’s  $LPTH is early discovery at a $700m MC and is now my favorite long of 2026.

I’m a happy shareholder on Lightpath’s way to $10B+ MC.

I've initiated positions in $LPTH ($621M).

Lightpath is incredible.

Every modern thermal weapon (Missiles, Drones) requires Germanium glass, which China owns (70%)

LPTH is the only US alternative with: Black Diamond

Users?

- $ONDS
- L3Harris
- Lockheed
- Andruil (likely)
- https://t.co/XdzME21cvo


Summary: Long RKLB unconditionally; national-security moat + space growth narrative; Neutron medium-lift launch is the key catalyst.

@Neat_Lama biggest catalyst is medium lift payload neutron. don't really care about macro with $RKLB since I believe it's important to national security like $TSM is to Taiwan + Space = grow big.

that's why i dont sell CC's on RKLB cause successful launch news could bring it up 50% lol.

@aleabitoreddit Are you still on the timeframe of next summer-ish before you start allocating more towards $RKLB with the current macro environment?


Summary: Long Harmonic Drive; scaling rapidly on humanoid orders, great entry at current levels.

Harmonic Drive Systems listed on TSE as 6324.T

@TheMaximu5 This post was about the US supply chain angle. Harmonic Drive is a Japanese company.

They're scaling up rapidly on humanoid orders from their previous earnings call so my opinion is that it's a great long at these levels. https://t.co/E0DECC8Y3i

@aleabitoreddit Where is Harmonic Drive? Cant make robotic arms without them???


I personally would assign a value of ~$700m which is around $6.5. I'm actually holding my shares for a year for long term capital gains since this is a legitimate fabless semi in the robotics/self driving AI space that's growing 20-30% y/y

Summary: Holding VLN long-term with $6.50 PT (~$700M valuation) on 20-30% growth and high margins in robotics/self-driving AI.

I revisited $VLN and did some quick modeling. I personally would assign a value of ~$700m which is around $6.5.

I’m actually holding my shares for a year for long term capital gains since this is a legitimate fabless semi in the robotics/self driving AI space that’s growing 20-30% y/y off insanely high $NVDA or $CRDO like margins for their robotics segment.

It’s just funny how suppressed this was because they thought they were -82m in cash lol and only had <1 year runway left.

@aleabitoreddit You're getting too powerful this stock never moves and you woke it up from the dead! Do you have a price target or was this just supposed to be a quick trade not sure if its too late


Summary: Holds ~$900k in NBIS shares plus $150k+ in calls; plans to cost-average up further.

@itsthesquonky Round $900k in shares, $150k+ in calls. I'll post updated positions when I cost avg up above $1M shares.

https://t.co/YX06OeQHgp

@aleabitoreddit What are your $NBIS positions?


Summary: Holding LTC long into spot ETF launch; potential 300% upside if crypto treasuries adopt it post-ETF.

@mattia030339 No clue. Just holding to see where it goes after ETF launch.

Could 300% if there's crypto treasuries that adopt LTC after a spot ETF. Market cap is extremely tiny so I'm sure there's some incentive to do this type of play.

@aleabitoreddit what’s the price target on this?


Summary: Short CRCL into Dec 2 lockup expiry (~4x float unlocking); long COIN as a hedge.

Huge warning on $CRCL, especially going into December 2nd. You're trading on a low float.

Circle sold 34M Class A shares in the IPO at $31. There's 202,550,578 Class A shares outstanding.

77.6% of all outstanding Class A (157M/202.55M) and ~463% of the 34M IPO float will be unlocked in December.

If anything I'd go short + long COIN as hedge during before the event.

---

@DeepValueBagger Whoops sorry it’s 137.7M shares not 157M. Point still stands though if 4x the float becomes available as selling pressure.

It’s never a good thing for that big of a lockup https://t.co/tKry3mOGcX


long COIN as hedge during before the event

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'


it's an amazing dip buy opportunity on $SPY 1.65% drop

Summary: Author calls macro-driven dip an amazing buy opportunity across SPY and several names including AMZN, AMD, HIMS, SNAP, META, WLAC, NBIS.

Also since macro fears randomly appeared today with a Trump tweet, it’s an amazing dip buy opportunity on $SPY 1.65% drop.

Just some examples:
$AMZN - down 3.7%
$AMD - down 8.27%
$HIMS - down 8%
$SNAP - down 5.1%
$META - down 3.07%

$WLAC, $NBIS always good to DCA.

People have been asking for my $FLY thesis since my Reddit post, so here it is:

Firefly is a rocket company like $RKLB, and is developing a reusable medium-lift rocket.

The only one that exists is SpaceX.

They target 2026-2027, and if they succeed, the company would re-rate to https://t.co/LCAFuKwYvd


Summary: Long NBIS: core business undervalued, ARR growing from $100M to $1B–$1.5B in one year, expects institutional ownership to surge from 38% to 65% in 6 months.

Subsidiaries aside and just the core business, I think $NBIS is undervalued.

It is mindblowing how Nebius is growing from $100m ARR to $1B-1.5B in just 1Y.

And this is a generational chance for small companies to power the infrastructure of $GOOGL Cloud, $MSFT Azure, $AMZN Web Services and others, the most profitable segments of Mag7.

Retail doesn't see this opportunity. Institutions definitely do and I would not be surprised if Nebius was 65% owned by institutions from 38% in 6 months time.

@aleabitoreddit @MktMavPro To me subsidiaries aren’t even priced in rn


Summary: Long AXTI as the foundational materials supplier for AI photonics supply chain, owning 10+ chemical companies and controlling the critical InP bottleneck.

If $GOOGL wants to build more TPUs, they need $LITE’s for OCS. $LITE needs $AXTI substrates (est. 30% of merchant market, CEO says 40% of InP supply chain). $AXTI needs the chemicals and materials from that happened to be owned by AXT.

$AXTI is the bottom of the entire AI supply chain for photonics since they own 10+ materials companies that produce the high-purity chemicals.

Basically a materials hedge fund at this point that produces the output substrate, hence why it's has so much control and market share over the critical inp bottleneck.

@aleabitoreddit You have done great work and nailed this. My question is - what’s the next play for the 2nd-3rd layer China supply chain?


$NBIS is the clear favorite out of anything. $NBIS is what true asymmetric return looks like.

Summary: Consolidating into NBIS as the full-stack gross-margin winner; bearish on miner neoclouds IREN and CIFR due to middleware margin compression and execution risk.

To settle the Neocloud debate:

$NBIS  > $IREN + others.

Based on the $ORCL report, NBIS whitepaper,  $CRWV acquisitions, and other factors,

I decided to consolidate millions into Nebius and sell off miners like $CIFR.

📏 Gross Margins > GW capacity

Here's the math + why:

We've had a huge speculative run across the board on Neoclouds backed by forward revenue (eg. 19B $MSFT deal with $NBIS).

However, crypto miners have recently gone up 500%+ due to raw GW capacity like $IREN and cheap energy.

However, what people miss out on is capacity leads to much higher revenue but that revenue means nothing if it's not profitable (eg. $ORCL 14% gross margins).

Now that more information has come out regarding $ORCL's buildout failure, $NBIS's whitepaper, and others, we know power and capacity mean little if the economics don’t translate.

And $NBIS has everything.

1. The Margin Gap: Full Stack vs. Middleware

Miners like $IREN and $CIFR must rely on orchestration partners (Fluidstack, Poolside, etc.) to monetize their GPUs. That means giving up 20–30% of revenue (~private estimates from deep research), plus absorbing GPU depreciation, power, and O&M. The result?

At $3–4/hr GPU pricing and ~80% utilization, IREN/CIFR margin = ~44–52%

At $5–6/hr and 90% utilization, margin could reach ~55–60%, but that’s the ceiling

Meanwhile, Nebius earns 70–75% today by owning the orchestration layer and amortizing over 4 years (71.2% from previous Q, likely 60-70%, possibly higher from recent whitepaper claiming higher GPU utilizations).

This gap compounds as scale and utilization rise.

Miners give away a piece of every dollar they earn while Nebius INCREASES gross margins over time.

2. Software Is the Moat and Oracle Proved It

Even $ORCL, an $800B hyperscaler, failed at building GPU orchestration profitably, reporting ~14% gross margins on their AI rental platform and losing ~$100M in the process.

If Oracle can’t execute, expecting $100M marketcap small miners like $SLNH to build hyperscaler-grade orchestration from scratch is wishful thinking.

Platforms like Fluidstack are essential bridges, but they come at a cost: margin compression, revenue leakage, and platform dependency.

Nebius? It already did the hard part. Its in-house orchestration software, GPU utilization, with no middlemen taking a cut.

3. Power vs. Margin Calculations

A single H100 uses ~0.7–0.84 kW. Even at $0.10/kWh, power is just $0.07–0.08 per GPU-hour. When GPUs rent at $4–6/hr, that’s 1–2% of revenue.

What actually moves the needle? Utilization:

50% -> 85% uptime = +70% revenue per GPU

That’s a multi-hundred bps margin swing, far outweighing any "cheap power" comparison with miners.

Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. And it's not like $NBIS doesn't have cheap power either lol.

4. The CRWV Exception to Miners

Everyone points to $CRWV as miners pivot but Coreweave literally spent YEARS to do this, along with billions in software acquisitions.

And even now, reports suggest their utilization trails Nebius. If miners think they’ll replicate CRWV, good luck.

I'd expect in NBIS to strong outperform in next year's earnings reports when it comes time for execution vs. speculation.

🧩 The Asymmetry

Nebius GM: 70–75% (full-stack, 4yr depreciation)

IREN/CIFR realistic GM: 40–60% (middleware, 2–3yr depreciation)

Gross margin delta: 15–30 points

Execution risk: Nebius = 0 (already doing it); IREN/CIFR = high

Nebius isn’t a power play. It’s a software margins play,  with hardware upside. With $IREN and others, you're guessing if it can pull off a $CRWV.

People keep saying "software it not a moat, and look at $CRWV for $IREN future HPC margins", but if $ORCL one of the largest hyperscalers is stuck at 14% gross margins. Then how do we expect these small crypto miners to pull off a Coreweave.

In terms of ASYMMETRICAL UPDATE, $NBIS is the clear favorite out of anything. In terms of raw potential upside if $IREN manages to pull a $CRWV out a hat and beats out $ORCL in this, sure I'd concede.

Software full stack is a HUGE moat that people vastly, vastly underestimate. With $NBIS, they can just let it plug and play scale up over time with the highest gross margins in industry.

$NBIS is what true asymmetric return looks like.

Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24.

This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that:

👑 $NBIS is superior.

I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss.

Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS


I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain


decided to consolidate millions into Nebius and sell off miners like $CIFR


I've added $CRDO on the 25.7% drop, taking advantage of CES misinformation... I ended up personally adding $CRDO since a large percent of its market cap got wiped from immaterial + incorrect news

Summary: Added CRDO on 25.7% drop; argues both catalysts (Amazon cable color change, Jensen 'cableless' NVL72) were misunderstood and don't impair Credo's AEC/photonics business.

I've added $CRDO on the 25.7% drop, taking advantage of CES misinformation.

1. Large drop initially was because investors spotted orange and blue cables in $AMZN DCs (implying $CRDO customer loss).

All that happened was Amazon requested a color change for internal logistics. - confirmed by Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho.

2. CES 2026 keynote - Second drop was Jensen Huang said "Cableless" design of Rubin NVL72 rack.

The "cableless" claim refers specifically to the internal copper backplane (blind-mate midplane) that connects the GPUs to the NVLink switches within a single rack.

$CRDO's main product is AEC, for outside of the racks that connect the entire server rack to the network switch. Nvidia's "Cableless" Tech only replaces internal parts Credo didn't make.

Jensen did mention Spectrum-X Ethernet Photonics, but $CRDO is operating in the photonics space too with "BlueBird" (Optical DSPs) and "ZeroFlap" optics. And then there's Top of the Rack Connectivity, which is Credo's main business (which is the most power efficient solution for the next 2-3y).

There are larger concerns over the shift to photonics (as I've pointed out with $AXTI multiple times), but industry is moving toward a hybrid model (copper + photonics) given the supply shortage.

Again as an overview, investors just did not know the nuances, not intentional disinformation.

So I ended up personally adding $CRDO since a large percent of its market cap got wiped from immaterial  + incorrect news.


Summary: Bullish NBIS: cash burn ending, operating leverage kicking in Q4 through 2027 as capex front-loading concludes.

yeah that's how capex gets accounted for, it creates fixed depreciation but nebius rev scales past depreciation drag.

Also subsidiaries + triple digit grwoth drop in pure net income into the statement without opex drag, which people don't model for.

going off your own points about leverage works with $IREN doing its msft deal with prepayment for higher levered irr, there's also operating leverage with nbis frontloading was majority of cash burn ending -> operating leverage q4 into 2027.

@aleabitoreddit CAPEX is not a P&L line bro… come on this is basic finance / accounting knowledge 🤦🏻♂

CAPEX gets accounted via depreciation which will occur over multiple years. Your “front loading” effect is imageniary, it doesn’t exist on the income (P&L) statement.


$NBIS revenue is locked in with $MSFT. It's completely de-risked with mag7 backstopping neoclouds.

Summary: Long NBIS: revenue locked in with MSFT, de-risked by Mag7 backstop; AI bubble won't pop for at least a year.

Oh yeah I wouldn't recommend full porting anything. It's good to have risk management.

Sure it's AI generally is bubble, but $NBIS revenue is locked in with $MSFT.  It's different than OpenAI promising $ORCL 300B+ which they don't have yet.

It's completely de-risked with mag7 backstopping neoclouds.

AI is also a critical national security risk and I'd expect US gov to be backstopping OpenAI/Anthropic/Gemini and others for years to come so don't really expect it to pop at least for another year (esp with triple rate cut projected).

@aleabitoreddit Hey bro, I came from reddit and have been following into most of your recent trades like nbis amzn and am a believer of your dd’s but I’m not committed enough to go full-port into nbis bcs of recent talks about the ai bubble etc.


Summary: Bullish SNAP: shift away from AR/glasses toward profitable initiatives is a real catalyst.

@rioferdy838 Fundamentally $SNAP had nothing going for it earlier because they kept focusing on AR and glasses.

Stuff like that makes them actually profitable like this move is an actual catalyst.

@aleabitoreddit This is such great analysis and a bit of a relief for a SNAP bagholder like myself lol

Got burned at their last earnings. Hopefully will recover and make me some money


this would be an ideal buying opportunity for individual companies in the sector... $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF are backstopped by AAA-rated Hyperscaler

Summary: Buy dip in NBIS/CIFR/WULF (hyperscaler-backstopped neoclouds) vs avoid ORCL/CRWV (debt-heavy, OpenAI-dependent) on expected sector selloff.

I expect a bad day for Neocloud stocks just because $ORCL / $CRWV are "sector leaders".

But this would be an ideal buying opportunity for individual companies in the sector:

Due to the market missing the nuance that $ORCL / $CRWV's debt-filled buildout is for OpenAI as the main counterparty.

But other companies in the sector like $NBIS, $CIFR, $WULF are backstopped by AAA-rated Hyperscaler ( $META / $META / $GOOGL / $AMZN) cash cows.

@aleabitoreddit Bad day for neoclouds and OpenAI group of stocks tmrw …


$ORCL / $CRWV's debt-filled buildout is for OpenAI as the main counterparty


The infinite money printer won't let it fail. And any chance $NVDA or others get, they'll be pressured to help Intel.

Summary: Bullish INTC as de-facto US government semi arm; dismisses Bernstein's bearish standard model; NVDA/others will be pressured to support Intel.

Sorry but Stacy is trolling if they are applying standard financial modeling to $INTC and pricing it like a cash burning foundry.

It’s the unspoken de facto semi arm of the US government for national security at this point. The infinite money printer won’t let it fail.

And any chance $NVDA or others get, they’ll be pressured to help Intel. It’s not degenerate at all to see that reality.

If Bernstein wants to give an accurate projection they need to look at all the angles instead of ignoring the biggest tailwind because of Trump.

Bernstein: Intel (INTC, Market-Perform, $35 TP) - Trump wants the stock to go up...

Fundamentals clearly remain unattractive here. Sustainability of core markets, especially PC, remains questionable as the current windows EOL won't last forever and the trajectory of the AI PC


any chance $NVDA or others get, they'll be pressured to help Intel


Summary: Long UPWK: 7.5x P/E, 78% gross margins, $622M cash; margin expansion to 40-60% via AI/cost cuts implies $6.9B valuation vs $1.7B today, 3-4x upside.

So for the long term play on Upwork:

$UPWK is trading at a 7.5 P/E with ~$770M in annual revenue, 78% gross margins, and $622M in cash — yet its market cap is only $1.74B.

Who cares about revenue growth when they can just scale operating margins?

---

If Upwork can scale operating margins from 20% → 40–60% on recurring revenue from cost-cutting + AI automations.. That’s $770M x 60% = $462M operating income.

At a modest 15x EBIT multiple, that's a $6.9B valuation.
VS today's $1.7B market cap, that’s a potential 3–4x upside.


Summary: Sees HIMS dip as a buying opportunity despite near-term turbulence, with fundamentals improving while market cap stalled.

@DeepValueBagger It's been a few quarters where $HIMS market cap hasn't really moved while fundamentals improved.

So I'd use this as a buying time to get back in. The amount of times it swung from $40s -> $63 I lost count.

Glad I rotated out of $hims. Great company but I expect turbulence few quarters.


I'd personally DCA instead of going all in at once. There's a reason why the U.S. government took a stake in $MP

Summary: Bullish MP Materials; recommends DCA, citing US critical minerals supply chain push and government stake as durable tailwinds.

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'

@TPvegaa I’d personally DCA instead of going all in at once. Don’t think a US-China deal would be much of a headwind since US extremely, extremely wants their own supply chain of critical minerals anyways.

There’s a reason why the U.S. government took a stake in $MP

@aleabitoreddit I maybe test MP. Do you think they keep the price at these lvls to buy big?


Summary: Long UPWK to $22-25 on H1B-driven freelance demand, $100m+ buyback, Russell index inclusion tailwinds; hold 1yr for LTCG.

@h20kita I ended up trimming $UPWK around $17, then held a tiny bit.

$22-25 is good given H1B increasing freelance hiring, $100m+ buyback and Russell going up from triple rate cuts (part of index) and possibly 5 going into next year.

Good to hold 1y for long term capital gain though

@aleabitoreddit hey, it's me Mimtos! I've messaged you before on reddit as a thanks. I'm curious if you're still on UPWRK like previously mentioned? It's been dancing around 20 but I'm holding long term for the 22-25$ price target you mentioned


Summary: Long NBIS; expects it to overtake CRWV in 1-2 years given better balance sheet and more diversified customers.

@NeuralCadence $COIN is like the equivalent of $CRWV, setting the mc for companies in the sector.

$NBIS is like $HOOD, better balance sheet, more diversified customers, etc.

I think NBIS will overtake CRWV in a year or two like how HOOD took over COIN.

$IREN doesn't have mag7 deals yet

As a $NBIS investor, I’m rooting for $IREN and $CRWV. If IREN can succeed with bare metal and CoreWeave can be profitable despite high interest costs, then Nebius will be incredibly successful with their software and low interest costs.


Cost averaging $TGT calls to ~$100k in positions. 5Y low, oversold at $88, and divided announced in a month. 3 rate cuts but no upward price movement yet.

Summary: Long TGT via call options, cost-averaging to ~$100k; bullish on 5Y lows, high dividend yield, and expected institutional accumulation into dividend.

Added call positions in $TGT.

5Y low, oversold at $88, and divided announced in a month. 3 rate cuts but no upward price movement yet.

Cost average front-running dividend at different strikes, similar to $UNH. Doing options since IV is 33%, which is on the low end. https://t.co/Fgmkcb2vmx

---

Cost averaging $TGT calls to ~$100k in positions. Have $100 strikes as well, but it's more risky.

It's a high paying dividend with the stock at 5y lows, so I'm sure institutions would stock up. https://t.co/wYCW2wMfRJ

---

Got dividend date wrong, it's November 12th instead of Oct.

Keeping this anyway but not adding more until next month.


Summary: Long NBIS as lowest-downside neocloud with 300%+ upside next year on margins/MSFT contract; also soft long IREN on low valuation but higher risk.

Yes it does! No worries

評価にはキャパシティ（設備能力）以上の多くの要素が関わっています。
アメリカの $ORCL（オラクル）を例に見ると、彼らは最終的に利益を失いました。というのも、その規模でも粗利益率がわずか 14% にとどまったからです。

マージン（利益率）は非常に重要です。
$NBIS は Amazon Web Services のようにフルスタックで事業を展開しているため、ネオクラウド業界の中でも最も高い利益率を誇ります。

一方で、AI コンピュート事業へ転換した多くのマイナー企業については、スケールした際の利益率がまだ明確に見えていません。

とはいえ、$NBIS は契約面などで最も高い透明性を持っており、あとは規模拡大を待つだけという段階にあります。

$IREN の場合、$NBIS（ネビウス）が得たような $MSFT とのハイパースケーラー契約を結べるかどうか、そしてスケール時に高い利益率を維持できるかどうかという「賭け」になります。

だからこそ、私はネビウスについて「下方リスクが最も低く、来年には 300%以上の上昇余地がある」と述べました。
一方で $IREN はリスクが大きいものの、評価額がかなり低いため、成功した場合のリターンはさらに大きくなる可能性があります。

@aleabitoreddit ビックテックと契約が複数あるのは、安心感が大きいですね。
現時点では電力確保の状況と、マイニング恩恵をダブルで得られると言う点で $IREN を選択していましたが、再検討が必要な時期が来ましたね。

thank you


$IREN はリスクが大きいものの、評価額がかなり低いため、成功した場合のリターンはさらに大きくなる可能性があります


Summary: Author values NYSE VLN at ~$493.5M vs ~$155M market cap using conservative EV/revenue; strongly bullish on mispricing.

It's a pretty hilarious ticker collision error with analysts and algorithms modelling off $VLN in Toronto, rather than $VLN NYSE.

I couldn't believe my eyes that they had $100m+ in assets, $70m+ yearly revenue with 60%+ gross margins and was valued at $155m lol so dug deeper.

I would value them around $493.5M if i just used conservative EV/revenue models.

@aleabitoreddit Comprehensive write up. Will review in detail later.


Summary: Bullish RDDT at $192, AMD at $210, VIRT at $33 (undervalued, earnings catalyst), and lithium/rare-earth stocks.

@Hoona1203 I ran out of tickers because X post limits, otherwise $RDDT was a buy at $192, $AMD was a buy at $210, $VIRT is a buy at $33 (not so much as single long but as a good hedge and I believe this undervalued + will show up in earnings), lithium-rare earth stocks are a buy and so on.

@aleabitoreddit Hey thanks for taking time and compiling this list. I made an X account for the first time just to follow you! One question about this list, I noticed that you left out RDDT that you had in your previous posts, did your conviction change around it?


Lithium/rare earth via LIT and REMX ETFs


Summary: Long NBIS to $225 within 1 year (best case by March); long RKLB on a 5-year horizon pending Neutron.

$CRWV went from $41 to $183 in the span of 3 months but part of that was less float.

We could see $NBIS similarly from $99 to $225 by March if they have a Q4 earnings blowout along with triple rate cut in the best scenario, but otherwise I'd say 1 year timeframe.

$RKLB I like the most on a 5 year timeframe, but they do need an extra two years for Neutron.

@aleabitoreddit what’s your timeline on hitting $225? I’m thinking of trimming my RKLB position before Neutron hit


$RKLB I like the most on a 5 year timeframe


Summary: Long LTC on ETF decision + treasury company catalysts with 2-3x upside; also bullish BTC.

not sure about your question exactly, but ltc + btc are both bullish. Tether is printing money to buy Bitcoin now, BTC dropped from $124k to $114k which is reasonable.

Gold ATH helps too.

i think my post about LTC was saying LTC at a little 8b marketcap with ETF decision + new treasury companies have a lot more potential to 2-3x.

@aleabitoreddit @Neat_Lama Still learning about $LTC ahead of the ETF decision. What I've gathered

-Approval near certain
-Spot ETF approval can be bullish ($BTC) or bearish ($ETH) short term
-ETF inflows need to supersede outflows from Grayscale trust conversions.

Why is the $BTC scenario more likely?


a $700m company could become the center of it all. InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HBM as the AI industry shifts to photonics

Summary: Long AXTI and SMTOY as critical InP substrate duopoly bottlenecking the entire AI/photonics buildout for hyperscalers, transceivers, and co-packaged optics.

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:

1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)

Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.

Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and receivers.

$AVGO, $LITE, $COHR use for EMLs for 800G/1.6T transceivers, DFB lasers, and other optical infra.

Without InP substrates, the supply chain falters.

After looking at TPU BOM to Maia BOM, it looks like future ASICs + GPUs + hyperscaler deployments are heavily reliant on photonics.

And two vendors could freeze the global InP substrate market covering nearly all of:

- Hyperscaler optics (TPU pods, etc)
- Optical transceivers (5g, data)
- LiDAR (robotaxis, drones, military)
-Optical Modules (interconnect clusters)
- Silicon photonics laser dies (Nvidia’s future co-packaged optics and Intel/Broadcom SiPh engines use  InP CW laser arrays.)

Since these companies make up majority of the market supply:

-AXTI (est. ~30–35%)
-Sumitomo (est.~30%)
- JX Nippon (est. 10-15%)

That’s it. (eg. 2021 industry note from Yole states that "Sumitomo Electric + AXT together had “more than 75%” of the InP substrate market")

Hyperscalers/AI are moving toward photonics but the entire AI industry is fragile.

If either $AXTI or $SMTOY stop supplying materials, the entire future AI buidlout gets crippled. It's even crazier that a $700m company could become the the center of it all.

InP substrate will likely one of the biggest bottlenecks alongside HMB as the AI industry shifts to photonics.


The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies: $AXTI ($700M) $SMTOY ($31.7B) Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates


Yeah I'll probably be buying a bit of $TE, it's been on my radar for awhile.

Summary: Plans to buy $TE; been watching it, linked to neocloud energy demand theme.

@mysticall3g3nd @t1energy Yeah I’ll probably be buying a bit of $TE, it’s been on my radar for awhile.

Energy isn’t really in my domain expertise though, so my commentary wouldn’t be as useful

@aleabitoreddit Neoclouds need energy right? I’m curious to see you would do a dive in on @t1energy 👀


$AIRO has a long way to go in my opinion, which is why I'm still holding. Trading at ~3 frwd p/s while other drone stocks are 30+. But even rerating to conservative aerospace companies like $AVAV would be 3x current prices.

Summary: Long AIRO; still holding, trading at ~3x fwd P/S vs 30x+ peers, rerating to AVAV multiples implies 3x upside.

$AIRO has a long way to go in my opinion, which is why I’m still holding. Trading at ~3 frwd p/s while other drone stocks are 30+. Of course this is more nuanced since there’s blended revenue from other verticals.

But even rerating to conservative aerospace companies like $AVAV would be 3x current prices.

@aleabitoreddit $AIRO baby. Still almost 80% to go to hit analyst ratings. Super under valued still. Europe is about to spend everything on defense. AIRO’s main manufacturing is in Denmark. War proven drone tech and training systems. Trash public relations. Money talks though.


I'm probably one of the biggest $RKLB bulls and it's my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. I've maintained $350B-500B long term PT

Summary: Highest-conviction 5Y long on RKLB with $350B-$500B long-term PT; notes near-term overvaluation at $60 but maintains bullish stance long enough.

I’m probably one of the biggest $RKLB bulls and it’s my highest conviction 5Y long alongside Bitcoin. I’ve maintained $350B-500B long term PT to match SpaceX’s most recent valuation/capabilities since it’s likely not winner takes all in space.

That being said I’ve maintained recently it is kinda overvalued (back at $60) just due to lack of Neutron/flatlite commercialization which is likely 2028-2029, and we’re a tad early given current revenue numbers. But always a good buy if you just wait long enough.

Market prices in forward growth but it’s more about how long in the future with Rocketlab (eg. With Snapchat, Nebius, it’s not that far).

What if I told you:

> There's an end to end space company that built its own launch vehicle with 100% mission success, and build their own satellite (best small sat in the business)

> 48% YoY revenue increase, Gross margin 40%, $1B backlog.

> The 2nd most successful


Summary: Long AMD on imminent re-rating: OpenAI deal adds 32–65%+ to forward revenue + narrative shift as credible AI inference alternative to NVDA.

$AMD is about to get a huge re-rating from forward earnings + narrative changes from the $10Bs+ deal with OpenAI

Forward revenue: They're currently doing 7.69B/Q, if we assume 10B/Y, it's quite material how much this adds.

  (32.5% - 65%+ increase in forward revenue based on tens of billions figure). So a 15-20%+ bump is justified.

Narrative changes: AMD as a credible alternative to $NVDA for AI inference is starting to look real.

The bigger question is whether OpenAI has the money to do this like with $ORCL, but that aside, forward revenue will spike, great material changes.


AMD as a credible alternative to $NVDA for AI inference is starting to look real


USDC is here to stay (mainly for United States)... Just from the venture capital friends I've talked to everyone seems to be funneling money into USDC-powered fintechs

Summary: Bullish Circle (CRCL) on USDC network-effect moat and VC capital flows into USDC-powered fintechs; uses RDDT as a network-effect analogy implying durability.

Not at all. This is the network effect in play, which is an incredible moat.

That’s what makes Reddit, $RDDT where anyone can create a similar platform in a day, but because everyone agrees to use it, that’s where the value comes from.

Obviously $CRCL is a tad more regulated, but from what I’ve seen, there’s that same network effect with $USDC where it’s the agreed upon currency to issue/settle with.

I run a financial institution that does minting/settlement with stablecoins.

It’s a nightmare to deal with any other coin (like Tether for regulatory reasons) or other minted stablecoins for lack of liquidity/agreed upon settlement asset or trading pairs.

USDC is here to stay (mainly for United States), Tether seems to be the asset of choice for international for different reasons.

Just from the venture capital friends I’ve talked to everyone seems to be funneling money into USDC-powered fintechs, like Stablecoin Banks, and we’ll start the utility start to expand.

@aleabitoreddit Completely agree on $NBIS and $RKLB, balls deep in it.
Regarding $CRCL, had a position earlier that I sold for higher convictions. I like the company but are you not worried by every company launching its stablecoins ?SoFi, JPM etc. Tether was alone back then...


That's what makes Reddit, $RDDT where anyone can create a similar platform in a day, but because everyone agrees to use it, that's where the value comes from


$OSS is great! They're already everywhere across US army deployments from Abrams/Bradley Tanks to US Navy Warships for Aegis, and tactical drones. With both high margins, incredibly sticky tech, and demand outstripping supply. Excited to see where it heads over the next year

Summary: Bullish OSS on high margins, sticky defense tech, and demand outstripping supply across army/navy/drone deployments.

@B38B37 $OSS is great!

They’re already everywhere across US army deployments from Abrams/Bradley Tanks to US Navy Warships for Aegis, and tactical drones. With both high margins, incredibly sticky tech, and demand outstripping supply.

Excited to see where it heads over the next year

@aleabitoreddit Only in $OSS for war stocks, added to my position now roughly 10% of my portfolio. Love this one, thanks boss !


Summary: Long SSYS as common supply-chain beneficiary across Boston Dynamics, Tesla Optimus, and Meta humanoid robots, providing structural frames/limbs.

Yeah I was going down the supply chains of Boston Dynamics, Tesla Optimus, Meta Humanoids, and others.

And $SSYS happened to be at the bottom of them all as the skeleton/frame of all the humanoids.

EG. Atlas abandoned metal frames for Stratasys Nylon 12CF (carbon fiber) for the limbs

@aleabitoreddit Have been looking into companies for Boston dynamics exposure ever since the new Atlas demo at CES. Could only really find Hyundai as it holds 80% of the company, will check this one out now (fully expecting it to double by next week now…) 😂


Summary: 5 longs for next month: HIMS (short squeeze), LTC (ETF launch), NBIS ($100+ on MSFT deal), CRDO (catch-up to ALAB), HOOD (S&P inclusion flows).

If I had to buy 5 things for the next month by potential:

1. $HIMS - 42% SI, new product/rate cut catalyst + 1.2M EU customers. Short squeeze inevitable, just a matter of time.

2. $LTC - Frontrun institutions for the ETF launch October 2nd.

3. $NBIS - Should easily be $100+ just based off of MSFT deal. Sorry $IREN holders.

4. $CRDO - Just to catchup $ALAB MC.

5. $HOOD - S&P inclusion flows will add a ton to the market cap given S&P is weighted by MC and hood is $100B+.


$LTC - Frontrun institutions for the ETF launch October 2nd.


$NBIS - Should easily be $100+ just based off of MSFT deal.


$HOOD - S&P inclusion flows will add a ton to the market cap given S&P is weighted by MC and hood is $100B+.


Summary: Bullish NUAI now that the dilutive EPFA is terminated; removal of main concern makes it a likely good investment.

@consmnesique Yep I'll visit $NUAI and appreciate the other comments from @Thebullwhisper, @chaptimustrades and others mentioning it.

My main concern a month or so ago was that EPFA and future dilution. But if that's gone, would probably be a great investment.

@aleabitoreddit Could you please revisit $NUAI? They terminated their EPFA earlier this month. Thank you for sharing your research!


Summary: Bullish NBIS: sold-out capacity is a demand signal, not a problem; record-breaking revenue ramp from $100M/quarter to $2B+ in a year signals more contracts ahead.

@ramiN4real They sold out of capacity... for $7-9B ARR for next year alone.

$NBIS will contract more so not a problem.

I still don't think people understand how record breaking growing from $100m quarterly revenue to $2B+ in 1 year is.

@aleabitoreddit They said they are out of capacity, is that a problem?


IREN secured a $9.7B GPU cloud contract with Microsoft... The Neocloud sector just got insanely bullish

Summary: Strongly bullish across the Neocloud sector on accelerating hyperscaler contracts (MSFT/AWS/META); expects sector-wide re-ratings.

The Neocloud List got updated:

$IREN - IREN secured a $9.7B GPU cloud contract with Microsoft, including 20% upfront prepayment, to deploy NVIDIA GB300s over five years.

$CIFR - CIFR secured a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS).

The Neocloud sector just got insanely bullish with new contracts coming in from hyperscalers and this just shows insatiable demand for compute.

I expected $ORCL, $META, and $AMZN to make deals in the original thesis and looks like AWS entered the fray with $CIFR, with likely more deals incoming with other Neoclouds. $META also signed a $14B deal with $CRWV recently and from their ER scaling AI Capex, we'll likely see other deals with Neoclouds.

This is insanely bullish across the whole sector.

I attached my personal tierlist for fun, but we'll likely see a re-ratings in data centers/miners across the board when there's more time to analyze deals and margins.

Neocloud Ecosystem Cheat Sheet Part 1/2:

Bullet Point Positive vs. Negatives.

Full List by Marketcap:

$CRWV ($66.2B)
$NBIS ($32.85B)
$IREN ($16.52B)
$APLD ($9.69B)
$RIOT ($7.34B)
$CIFR ($7.3B)
$WULF ($6.36B)
$HUT($5.39B)
$CLSK ($5.01B)
$HIVE ($1.74B CAD)
$WYFI ($1.29B) https://t.co/z3HZ07q5wn


CIFR secured a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS)


META also signed a $14B deal with $CRWV recently... insanely bullish across the whole sector


This is insanely bullish across the whole sector. we'll likely see a re-ratings in data centers/miners across the board

Neocloud basket: CoreWeave, Nebius, Cipher, Core Scientific


Summary: Bullish NBIS: subsidiaries growing triple digits Y/Y and sum-of-parts valuation is extremely undervalued.

Not as long as people think!

I have an extremely sharp memory of anything financial related that gets mentioned in the past. So I just kind of piece things together on the fly and then do some additional research to double check facts for $NBIS.

I remember for Avride people kept associating it with the small food delivery carts so wanted to post a deeper dive into the robotaxi aspect (which is the main opportunity) updates, growth, opportunity + what they do.

For Toloka people just drop the name but don’t understand valuations, growth, customers, or what they do exactly. So wanted to make this post.

Clickhouse is probably the most understood one but people don’t realize many of Nebius subsidiaries are growing triple digits Y/Y (usually 30-45% is good) so 140% is extremely high lol.

When I talk about sum of part valuation being extremely undervalued, it helps for people to come to that conclusion themselves rather than taking my word for it. So I just try to provide the argument I’m thinking about internally

@aleabitoreddit Awesome write up. 🤩
I wonder how much time do you spend on these deep dives? You keep bringing in new reasons to full port everything into $nbis


Summary: Venezuela's ~600K BTC seizure likely frozen as U.S. strategic reserve, locking up 3% of supply and acting as a bullish catalyst for BTC and MSTR in Q1 2026.

Venezuela: The $60B+ Bitcoin "Shadow Reserve"

Markets focus on the $17T+ in Oil that Venezuela owns.

But what they don't know is that Venezuela one of the largest active $BTC holders in the world.

Similar in scale to both $MSTR and Blackrock.

Here's how this impacts markets and prices:

Intelligence reports indicate that the Venezuelan regime accumulated a  "shadow reserve" of Bitcoin (BTC) and Tether (USDT) estimated at more  than $60 billion. (HUMINT)

his hoard was built through "gold swaps" and the requirement that oil exports be settled in USDT to evade sanctions.

Intelligence cited by Whale Hunting (authored by Bradley Hope and Clara  Preve) indicates that the accumulation began in 2018, coinciding with  the  aggressive liquidation of the Orinoco Mining Arc’s gold reserves.

- The regime likely converted ~$2B of gold proceeds into Bitcoin at an  average price of $5K, which would have been around 400,000 BTC. At Jan  2026 price of ~$90K, that specific tranche alone would be worth $36B.

As the "Petro" experiment failed, the regime pivoted to using Tether  (USDT) as a proxy for the petrodollar during cruide oil sales. However,  Venezuela began to "Wash" that into Bitcoin, recognizing that USDT  retains the ability to freeze addresses.

Given market intelligence, we can estimate that Venezuela has roughly:

Gold Swaps: 2018–2020, Gold Bars, Value Now: ~$45B - $50B

Petro-Crypto: 2023–2025, Crude Oil, Value Now: ~$10B - $15B

Mining Seizures: 2023–2024, ~$500M

Giving a grand total between 2018–2026: ~$56B - $67B in Bitcoin, implied at 660K+ Bitcoin, with a floor at 600K in Bitcoin.

That does not mean US has full control of the Bitcoin yet. The days  following today will be defined by a high-stakes interrogation to secure  the Bitcoin.

The U.S. will likely offer plea deals, reduced sentencing, or  protection for family members in exchange for the surrender of seed  phrases. Given the severity of the narco-terrorism charges, the leverage  is there.

So now the revelation of the $60 billion hoard fundamentally alters the  supply/demand dynamics of the Bitcoin market for 2026, as the  Venezuelan reserve is estimated at: 600,000+ BTC.

This is 12 times larger than the German sale and 2 times larger than the U.S. government’s entire pre-raid stockpile.

In 2024, the German state of Saxony liquidated ~50,000 BTC ($3  billion). This 50K BTC sale caused a 15-20% market correction  and weeks  of bearish sentiment.

Now compare that to 600,000.

Here's the leading entity holders of Bitcoin:

1. Satoshi Nakamoto ~1,100,000
2. BlackRock (IBIT) ~770,791.5
3. MicroStrategy ~672,497
4. Venezuela (Seized) ~600,000
5. U.S. Gov ~325,293
6. Mt. Gox Trustee ~140,000

Now, here's what will likely happen from here:

The "Frozen Asset" (High Probability):

The assets are seized but immediately entangled in complex litigation  Creditors file injunctions; the DOJ claims forfeiture. The keys are held  in escrow by the U.S.  Treasury, but the coins cannot move.

Short-term volatility due to uncertainty, followed by a bullish "supply  shock" narrative.

Short-term volatility due to uncertainty, followed by a bullish "supply   shock" narrative. The market realizes that 600,000 BTC (3% of  circulating supply) have been effectively removed from the market for  5-10 years. This acts as a massive "lock-up," reducing liquid supply and  supporting higher prices.

The "Strategic Reserve" Pivot (High Probability):

Influenced by the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" movement, President Trump  orders the Treasury to hold the Bitcoin as a permanent U.S. asset.

This too acts as a massive lock up, reducing liquid supply and supporting higher prices.

The "Fire Sale" (Very Low Probability):

The U.S. DOJ declares the assets "perishable/volatile" and executes an  immediate liquidation via Coinbase Prime or USMS auctions to fund the   occupation costs.

However, this is unlikely due to Trump's positive stance toward Bitcoin "Reserves" from confiscating assets.
_

Results:

Markets have been looking at the massive oil reserve and beneficiaries, while ignoring the elephant in the room: Bitcoin.

The "second order effect" is likely a massive supply lock-up.

If the U.S. seizes these assets, they will likely move from "active  liquid reserves" of a rogue state to "frozen sovereign assets" of the  U.S. Treasury, reducing available supply and potentially acting as a  catalyst for higher prices in Q1 2026.

There will likely be increased volatility. But for market participants shorting Bitcoin because of fears of  "conflict", this event is generally seen as bullish for $MSTR and  Bitcoin holders as this effectively locks up supply for many years to come.


this event is generally seen as bullish for $MSTR and Bitcoin holders