Summary: Defends NBIS valuation: 700%+ ARR growth to $8B+ with 20-30% EBIT margins makes PE the wrong metric; implicitly bullish.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Internet Content & Information'

@TravisNott Hmm, $NBIS 700%+ growth from $900m-1.1B ARR to ~$8B+ ARR on 20-30% EBIT margins.

Then there's 4 subsidiaries like this one, growing 100%+ Y/Y, and burned capex for FSD development.

probably wrong metric to use unless you're value investing vs. looking at growth.

@aleabitoreddit $NBIS is trading over 100x PE….the question is, what are you smoking? lol


Summary: Author is an early investor in RKLB, HOOD, CRDO; bullish on NBIS as uniquely exceptional — 700%+ forward revenue growth with 4 hyper-growth subsidiaries each scaling >100% Y/Y.

I'm an early investor in hyper-growth companies.

$RKLB for space.

$HOOD for fintech.

$CRDO for connectivity.

But I've never

ever, Ever

seen a company grow forward revenue: 700%+ Y/Y.

and while owning 4 hyper growth subsidiaries concurrently scaling >100% Y/Y each. https://t.co/iqU2jWf41O

WHAT IS THE MARKET SMOKING???

Wall Street sent $UBER, a $180B+ company, up 3.4%, $6B+ today off of its self-driving cars.

But $NBIS, the parent company of the self-driving cars Uber uses, got sent down -3% and is now worth less than $24B. https://t.co/ahpz7B0mwx


This is a crazy valuation... you don't have companies trading close to 1:1 marketcap, cash/assets if they have no debt, $80m fwd revenue off 63% gross margins, 69.1% on their robotics/industrial vertical

Summary: Long VLN: high-margin fabless semi at ~1x EV/revenue with strong robotics growth; bear cases (insider sales, Israeli co.) dismissed as superficial.

Nice thesis on $VLN! Similar thoughts where you have an extremely high margin fabless semi trading (with t1 customers) trading close to a ridiculous 2 ev/revenue.

Don’t think people quite understand that you don’t have companies trading close to 1:1 marketcap, cash/assets if they have no debt, $80m fwd revenue off 63% gross margins, 69.1% on their robotics/industrial vertical (75%+ of revenue growing 40% y/y).

People are just citing “insider sales” or “Israeli company” as bear cases without looking at the financials.

This is a crazy valuation

Here's the quick investment thesis on a recent small cap that came to my attention Friday. Thank you to @aleabitoreddit and @Gubloinvestor for taking the time to share it with their followers.

If you've already seen it, keep scrolling but for those who haven't the name is $VLN


incredibly undervalued at $94... Stock should be easily trading $140+ right now... $400 PT

Summary: Long NBIS with $400 PT; calls it undervalued at $94, says it should trade $140+ now on 2026 revenue projections of $2.1B/quarter.

For starters it's incredibly undervalued at $94. Q1 would need to have many DCs burn down for it to justify current prices.

However, for it to be in line with my $400 PT, $NBIS needs to be executing current guidance eg.moving toward 2.5 GW capacity, 1GW capacity connected, revenue projections.

We're expecting $2.1B/quarter 2026 Q4 for $NBIS which is absolutely mindblowing growth.

Market prices in forward growth, but it's more of how long in the future it prices in.

For Nebius, it's like it's wearing blindfolds. Stock should be easily trading $140+ right now if markets take 2026 projections seriously.

@aleabitoreddit thanks for the reply, what do you think Q1 has to look like for $NBIS to justify the price it is currently at?


if it passes, it's probably the biggest tailwind for the Neocloud + Datacenters space and incredibly bullish for the whole sector

Summary: Bullish on Neocloud and datacenter sector if the bill passes the House; potentially the biggest tailwind for the space.

Cloud/data center basket: Vertiv, Equinix, CoreWeave, Nebius

Last week of December for a timeline estimate.

Regards like Bernie Sanders are pushing back on it though. I laughed at @pepemoonboy comment underneath and it’s so true given Bernie’s lack of understanding of AI and infrastructure a pivotal national security risk.

There’s no need for all the bureaucracy and state-by-state political games when China is on the precipice of building critical frontier models.

But if it passes, it’s probably the biggest tailwind for the Neocloud + Datacenters space and incredibly bullish for the whole sector.

@aleabitoreddit When is it going through the House?


Summary: Still bullish on Neoclouds broadly (IREN, CIFR); singles out NBIS as top asymmetric pick on gross margin moat; cautious on CRWV due to interest debt.

Thanks, just wanted to add I'm still bullish on Neoclouds across the board from $IREN to $CIFR. Short term there might be higher upside due to narratives around capacity but I'd expect markets to care about margins more when it comes time to execution + earning reports.

In terms of raw asymmetrical upside, $NBIS is the obvious winner due to gross margin moat on their operational side ( $CRWV would have been up there if it weren't for interest debt).

And I added some quantitative data in the post showing why margins > capacity and/or middleware.

@aleabitoreddit 100%, excellent write up and analysis! Love your work thank you


$NBIS is the obvious winner due to gross margin moat on their operational side


Summary: Added calls on NBIS at ~$122.9, treating the no-news dip as a buying opportunity.

No news dips are always a nice gift $NBIS.

(Added calls at~$122.9) https://t.co/LmgjK3uoog

The Great Soybean/Seed Oil Crash, personal thoughts and explanations:

Strong Buy
$ALAB
$CRDO
$NBIS
$WLAC
$LTC
$TSM
$BTC
(+ same as tax harvest stocks last time)
$AMZN
$SMCI
_

Buy
$AMD
$FLNC
$SEI
$BZAI
$NKLR
$IREN
$WULF
$CIFR
$CRWV
$BITF
$WYFI
$SLNH
$BITF
$RBRK
$GLXY
$GRAB
$SEA


Summary: NBIS is a generational opportunity on the 30% dip and will strongly outperform; also sees upside in IREN.

@YNWA_AB Yeah I normally don't do much single-stock posts, but just feel like $NBIS is a generational opportunity right now, especially on the 30% drop.

I see the upside for $IREN and others, but feel like Nebius will strong outperform.

@aleabitoreddit This. I also sold off my iren at $68 and now have a large $NBIS position as I see it being a winner over the next 12 months. You get the business plus investments in various other businesses. Talented team as well.


Summary: Cautious on CRWV due to 9% debt cost; prefers NBIS on balance sheet; notes NVDA backstop for CRWV.

@Veganhippo21 That's fair. Not a fan of $CRWV as much because of 9% interest on their debt but to each their own.

$NVDA is backstopping CRWV more than the others but I liked $NBIS balance sheet a lot more.

@aleabitoreddit I added 12,000 shares of $crwv
They are second to none
Also, will add 8,000 share more this shutdown


$NVDA is backstopping CRWV more than the others


Summary: Bullish on WULF/CIFR as neocloud beneficiaries of Google's $40B data-center capex; broader market selloff seen as overdone.

@KobeissiLetter Another $40B in capex going to neoclouds like $WULF / $CIFR and the data center buildout by $GOOGL.

Meanwhile markets are selling off indiscriminately for the wrong reasons. https://t.co/S9wmV8d1XD

BREAKING: Google, $GOOGL, announces plans to invest $40 billion in 3 new data centers in Texas.


markets are selling off indiscriminately for the wrong reasons


Summary: Author uses Schiff's bearish call as a contrarian buy signal for Bitcoin/IBIT around $110k.

This is probably a good indicator to buy Bitcoin | $IBIT at $110k if people are telling you to panic sell at bottoms instead of tops.

Bitcoin just dropped below $109K, down 13% from its high less than two weeks ago. Given all the hype and corporate buying, this weakness should be cause for concern. At a minimum, a decline to about $75K is in play, just below $MSTR's average cost. Sell now and buy back lower.


Pretty sure institutions know $NBIS is gearing up to become the next hyperscaler. We went from 38% institutional ownership last quarter to 44% this quarter... now at 48.8%-50.42%... institutions tend to acquire that 55-75% sweet spot before having massive ramps up

Summary: Bullish NBIS: rising institutional ownership from 38% to ~50% mirrors pattern seen before massive ramps; MSCI inclusion adding further inflows.

Pretty sure institutions know $NBIS is gearing up to become the next hyperscaler.

We went from 38% institutional ownership last quarter to 44% this quarter from 13F filings.

Now from Bloomberg terminal data, we're now at 48.8%-50.42% institutional ownership of $NBIS (with likely more after MSCI inclusion yesterday + more inflows the next week or two).

As I said before with good companies like $HOOD, institutions tend to acquire that 55-75% sweet spot before having massive ramps up.

Institutions are buying retail capitulation, but just through dark pools.

@aleabitoreddit NBIS- Future AI hyperscaler


Summary: Author added META and went long TSM (harder than NVDA) as live held positions.

@pepemoonboy lol we have similar longs now that I added $META the other day. I just went harder on $TSM instead of $NVDA.

What convinced you on $NBIS?

$NBIS is my newest high conviction stock.

I’m scooping more up on any major dip.

AI is the future.

$HOOD remains as the pillar of my portfolio.

Continuing to add $META and $NVDA on big drops as well.

Holding my $BTC and never selling.

That’s my current strategy.

Not https://t.co/TSjfqOUqUu


I just went harder on $TSM instead of $NVDA


NBIS has a clear path to $60b+ marketcap from $24b and why I'm taking a $1M position

Summary: Long NBIS with $1M position; sees path to $60B+ market cap from $24B on MSFT+NVDA backing.

$ALAB went from $96 to $244, a 154% increase since I called it out 2 months ago (though a tad overvalued now)

Similar thesis with $NBIS is happening now with backing from $MSFT + $NVDA.

NBIS has a clear path to $60b+ marketcap from $24b and why I’m taking a $1M position.

I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot.

NVDA-like profit margins (76%), 144%+ Y/Y growth, customers like NVDA, AWS, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMD at 16B market cap.

Unreal customers + growth/margins. https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB


Summary: ChatGPT citation drop is immaterial to earnings; selloff was unwarranted, implying RDDT is a buy.

So I was saying nobody cares that ChatGPT cites Reddit less because nobody visits $RDDT through ChatGPT.

So the sell off was stupid since its immaterial to earnings.

What was i saying about network effect in that since everyone is on Reddit, its hard for someone to make a Reddit competitor, which is really easy to code.

@aleabitoreddit Sorry if this is a dumb question, but when you say network effect moat, does that mean that the more users and content the platform has, the more difficult it is for the platform to lose that base? So in this case, Reddit likely wouldn't lose users over the ChatGPT narrative?


Summary: Long VLN; base case is a rerate to $500M market cap on markets mispricing the stock.

@Jetson_Dad Thanks, I’m just posting my own thesis on what I found with the markets mispricing from $VLN with novel information synthesis.

Any premiums aside hope it rerates to $500m MC, which was my base case projection if things go as planned.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you! I think this is a banger.


Good time to buy the HIMS dip on the 8% drop. But aside from weekly macro should go up $60+.

Summary: Buy HIMS dip; FDA news seen as immaterial, targets $60+. RKLB flagged negatively on dilution.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

FDA news is immaterial since it's just $HIMS is strongly worded letter to modify their advertisements and has nothing to do with fundamentals.

Compared to $RKLB that had dilution and dropped 10%.

Good time to buy the HIMS dip on the 8% drop. Only main worry is macro tomorrow for a sell the news event.

But aside from weekly macro should go up $60+.

@aleabitoreddit what do you think about $HIMS dropping so much today? are people shorting because of the FDA news?


Summary: Author personally likes WULF and GLXY among the crypto/energy stocks mentioned.

Thanks! I'm not here to make any argument for individual stocks here like $APLD, $GLXY, $API, $NNE and others that you mentioned.

I just wanted to give a broader overview of macro and how you could position with the examples above.

If those are your top picks, then great! (i personally like $WULF and $GLXY on there)

@aleabitoreddit Glad I found you, great write up. Went through several of your posts but did not find anything on some favs (WULF, HOND (now IMSR), APLD, GLXY, NNE, ASPI, OKLO, Quantum stocks. Are you avoiding those?


AAOI already has direct hyperscaler customers with $MSFT and $AMZN... Amazon has a financial incentive in $AAOI like $ALAB, but Astera is already a $30B company, while AAOI is a $2.5B MC

Summary: Bullish AAOI: direct hyperscaler customers (MSFT, AMZN), Amazon equity incentive like ALAB, but only $2.5B MC vs ALAB's $30B — significantly undervalued.

I've looked into $POET but didn't like it as much compared to $AAOI given AAOI already has direct hyperscaler customers with $MSFT and $AMZN.

$POET had Celestial that got acquired $MRVL, where Celestial used poet’s interposer to connect tpus/trainium, and Marvell sells that to hyperscalers.

But it's not quite the same de-risking few hops away as direct massive volume orders from $AMZN and $MSFT and equity agreements that Amazon has like they did with $ALAB.

Amazon has a financial incentive in $AAOI like $ALAB, but Astera is already a $30B company, while AAOI is a $2.5B MC.

@aleabitoreddit How about $Poet ? Did you have a look at it as well


Summary: HIMS favored for dip recovery over RKLB; both seen as dip buys but HIMS dip (ad-wording letter) more immaterial than RKLB's $750M share sale.

For dip buying day-trading, the diff vs. the 8%+ $HIMS and $RKLB drop is that one was a strongly worded letter that has no material affect.

The other is selling $750 million on the open market.

Not saying don't buy the $RKLB dip, but $HIMS would likely recover faster. https://t.co/vWkt6GaYN7

Good time to buy the 8% dip on $HIMS since strongly worded letters about changing up ad wording is immaterial to earnings.

Short interest availability also decreased.

Main short term risk is sell the news from rate cut, but PT $60+ still holds from 42% SI and growing revenue. https://t.co/pxf4DaepzM


Summary: Bullish CIFR to $22+ next month on $830M GOOGL/Fluidstack contract; hyperscaler revenue visibility de-risks the name.

bruh, $CIFR just signed a $830m 10y contract with $GOOGL through Fluidstack. More likely $22+ next month than sub $10.

Long-term hyperscaler revenue visibility, so it's pretty de-risked. Just slower revenue ramp compared to full-stack offerings + BTC price drag since it holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet.


Summary: Bullish on Neoclouds broadly; WYFI has cost and infrastructure edge, but all three names have re-rating room given small caps.

True. Jokes aside (sorry to scare @DeepValueBagger) $WYFI's edge is probably converting facilities for 40% lower cost than greenfield (built from scratch) data centers that others need to build, and they're not lease heavy.

It's also pure play HPC compared to miners.

Downside is they don't build their own orchestration stack like $NBIS or scale as fast as $IREN. But they own the infrastructure instead of leasing. Vertically integrated HPC infrastructure for hardware and psychical only.

I'm just going off the assumption there's room to grow across all Neoclouds and there's more room for re-rating considering the small $1.3B market cap size.

The analysts at Clear Street that gave a $51 PT probably do a better job with number crunching so I'd just refer to them.

@aleabitoreddit What if youre so blind to the risk that you end up making money?


there's room to grow across all Neoclouds and there's more room for re-rating


Summary: Bullish CIFR with $16 price target; calls already up $12k since Friday.

@Neat_Lama Same here! One of my $CIFR strikes is up $12k since Friday.

Still think it rallies to $16. https://t.co/4IbuWFsvaA

@aleabitoreddit Master, my $CIFR calls cooked today 🤝


Summary: Prefers COHR over LITE; highest conviction long is NBIS.

@ManglaniAkshay @LogicalThesis So I actually like $COHR more than $LITE right now and sold my LITE positions at ~$385.

I did some internal research the other day and found some potential issues but didn't publish it yet.

That being said it's still a good long but not as high conviction as $NBIS.

@aleabitoreddit @LogicalThesis Damn even with $LITE $COHR down 10% yesterday??


Summary: Institutional flow analysis rates NBIS/WULF/CIFR/CLSK positively and IREN negatively based on 13F ownership structure and fund type.

Institutional Flow assessment for 13F Neocloud filings:

· Nebius ( $NBIS ): 🟢 Strongly Positive (7/10)
· WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 Highly Positive (8.5/10)
· IREN ( $IREN ): 🔴 Very Negative (3/10)
· CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 Highly Positive (8.0/10)
· Coreweave ( $CRWV ):  🟡 Neutral (5.5/10)
· Cleanspark ( $CLSK ): 🟢 Highly Positive (9.0/10)

_

TLDR Summary Updates:

$NBIS
· Strong overall quantitative growth in institutional ownership, driven by a mix of solid, long-term institutional buyers alongside high activity from quantitative funds and hedge funds.

$WULF
· Structurally stable and secure institutional base, characterized by large, long-only asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock who hold high conviction in the stock.

$IREN
· Ownership is dominated by high-frequency traders, market makers, and quant funds (eg. Jane Street, Citadel). This structure is viewed negatively as it suggests less stable, short-term holding pressure and a lack of conviction from long-term institutions.

$CIFR
· Excellent institutional setup marked by inclusion in major indices (passive demand) and strong, conviction-based buying from active funds, highlighted by a massive stake increase from Alyeska.

$CRWV
· High trading volume suggests significant market interest, but ownership is currently highly concentrated, with a notable presence of market-makers, leading to a neutral score that implies balanced risk/reward in the flow.

$CLSK
· Considered the best institutional structure in the group, combining broad, supportive passive index inclusion with aggressive, high-conviction active accumulation, suggesting the lowest qualitative risk.

_

Comments:

Eg. " Bullish - Jane Street + Citadel own x  of $IREN " (hint: it's not positive). Especially when long term holders like FMR (Fidelity): 2.12M shares, trimmed large percent of stakes.

The type of fund matters eg:

Passive (Most Positive)
Vanguard, BlackRock index, State Street, Geode, etc

Long  (Positive)
Fidelity, T. Rowe, Wellington, BIT, etc

Hedge Fund (Neutral to Positive)
Alyeska, Coatue, Millennium, etc

Quant/MM (Negative)
Jane Street, Citadel, Susquehanna, SIG, Two Sigma, etc

This is a subjective framework when scoring how positive flows were just from this quarter (not overall ownership).

We're seeing a sector crash in high-beta AI stocks, with  names down 30-45%+ in 1M & 10%+ today.

This includes direct beneficiaries of Mag7 Capex :

- Nebius ( $NBIS ): $3B $META deal / $8B forward ARR.

- TeraWulf ( $WULF ):  <$50B Antrophic DC + JV FS/ $GOOGL

- Iren ( $IREN https://t.co/fAodtM0F4s


WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 Highly Positive (8.5/10)


CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 Highly Positive (8.0/10)


Cleanspark ( $CLSK ): 🟢 Highly Positive (9.0/10)


AAOI MC is a fraction of MRVL and LITE as a microcap, making the Maia opportunity far more transformative for its stock... If AAOI captures a portion Maia optical BOM, they triple or quadruple their ARR from one client alone by 2027

Summary: Bullish AAOI and MRVL as top beneficiaries of MSFT Maia 300 ramp; also long LITE and TSM as secondary optical/foundry winners into late 2026-2027.

Personal Research: $MSFT Maia 300 supply chain.

On a $MRVL report, UBS est. 1M+ Maia by 2027.

An est. of $18B+ is estimated to flow down to suppliers from Maia ASIC ramp.

Here's where it goes:

1.  $MRVL - $8-12B revenue (~30-40% margin) as the prime beneficary. They design the digital plumbing (SerDes, interconnects), buy the HBM4 memory from SK Hynix, pay TSMC for the 2nm wafers and CoWoS packaging, and sell the finished module to Microsoft.

We'll likely see a large re-rating in Marvell when it comes time for Maia ramp late 2026, early 2027, especially given how much revenue this brings in.

2. The Optical Fabric: ~$3 Billion to $4 Billion

Primary Beneficiaries: Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ), Coherent ( $COHR ), Innolight

Maia clusters require a 1:1 or higher ratio of transceivers to GPUs. For 1.6T speeds (required for Maia 300), the optical content per node is estimated at $3,000+ (approx. 6x 800G/1.6T modules per accelerator).

Here AAOI Wins Big: Unlike $MRVL (which is $70B), $AAOI is a $2.5B company. Capturing even 20-30% of this $3B pie ($600M-$900M) would triple + their current ARR, but the amount captured is dependent on their InP Texas Fab scaling (could be a lot more or less).

So Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Marvell's optical DSP business are the silent winners, riding the 1.6T upgrade cycle required to interconnect these massive chips.

Companies like $TSM gain another $3-4B revenue, but that's medium volume compared to their $100B+ revenue. (just speaking to how much of a giant TSM is)

For the silicon BOM breakdown:

1. Compute Logic (ASIC) - TSM + Intel Foundry/18A

Marvell (Design), TSMC, Intel, ARM/Synopsys? ($2,800 - $3,500)

2. Memory (est. HBM4? (6-8 stacks), estimate).

SK Hynix, Samsung ($3,360 - $4,500)

3. I/O & Cache Die - TSMC N5/N4

Marvell, TSMC ($400 - $600)

4. Advanced Packaging - CoWoS-L / Foveros Direct

TSMC, Intel ($900-$1300)

5. Thermal Solution - Microfluidic Cold Plate / TIM ($200-400)

6. Misc (High-Current Inductors, Caps)  ($150-$200)

Total Silicon BOM: $7,860 - $10,550

This is really high level doesn't go into Passive/Substrate/Lid (Ibiden, Unimicron), Test & Assembly (Advantest, Teradyne), etc.

Now if we look deeper at optical BOM and what $MSFT is doing with hollow core fiber and OCS:

DSP / SerDes IP: $MRVL ($800 - $1,200)
SiPh Engine (CPO): Marvell / Intel  ($600 - $900)
Laser Source (ELS): $AAOI, $LITE ($300 - $600)
Transceiver Assembly: $AAOI, Innolight ($400 - $600)
Fiber Cabling: Hollow Core Fiber / MPO ( $MSFT) ($200 - $300)

Total Optical BOM~$2,300 - $3,600~25% of Total System Cost

We've established $LITE and Innolight as the two major players in photonics already (within $NVDA and every single hyperscaler ASIC)

However, $AAOI MC is a fraction of $MRVL and $LITE as a microcap, making the Maia opportunity far more transformative for its stock.

Someting also to note is Fubon Research est Maia300 chip is set to start prod in late 2026 with about  300,000 to 400,000 units, increasing to 1.2 to 1.5 million units in 2027, but we're just going with the ~1M figure from UBS. (so might ramp up more)

But the shift to 1.6T and the specific requirement for high-power lasers for hollow-core/OCS networks is a big tailwind. If AAOI captures a portion Maia optical BOM, they triple or quadruple their ARR from one client alone by 2027 (not including $AMZN).

Risk: The primary risk is qualification failure. If their lasers fail Microsoft’s rigorous reliability testing, they could be replaced by $LITE overnight.

However, Maia 300 ramp signals the start of the hyperscaler ASIC trade and key suppliers are there.

The companies that benefit the most from this specific ASIC late 2026-2027?

Looks like $AAOI, $MRVL, $TSM, and SK Hynix.

Warning: This is speculative research + modeling given public materials + deep research + mapping. There is no public breakdown and news of this information, do not treat it as a fact.

$AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today.

From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs.

AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium.

InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 https://t.co/TcZ6FUXRkx


We'll likely see a large re-rating in Marvell when it comes time for Maia ramp late 2026, early 2027, especially given how much revenue this brings in


LITE is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs


Companies like TSM gain another $3-4B revenue


Summary: Long NBIS, WLAC, TSM, AMZN (6-month calls) on 2x rate cuts + seasonal tailwinds post-correction.

@capybara_830 Honestly $NBIS, $WLAC, then splitting $NVO into $TSM + $AMZN calls 6 months out sounds beautiful.

There’s 2x rate cuts and a recent correction going into the best seasonal months. Now’s the best time to go long if any.

@aleabitoreddit I remember you once mentioning that, the small accounts should avoid diversifying and make few high conviction picks.

Do you still have the same stance in a volatile market? I’m mostly in NBIS, WLAC and NVO, but thinking to sell NVO and go long on amzn. any thoughts?


splitting $NVO into $TSM + $AMZN calls 6 months out sounds beautiful


might be a fun rally upward to match fundamentals from $7-9B ARR projections. There's too many catalysts coming up like few hundred - low billion inflow from MSCI in 4 days. This is extremely large relative to marketcap/float.

Summary: Long NBIS on MSCI inflows, blowout earnings, AI rally, dealer hedging unwind, and institution accumulation of ~50% float pointing to rally toward $7-9B ARR valuation.

agreed, not a good idea to write $NBIS CC's though so close to ITM on a 35% drop + blowout earnings.

There's too many catalysts coming up like few hundred - low billion inflow from MSCI in 4 days. This is extremely large relative to marketcap/float.

Then we have AI rally in-tact in time for December and mechanical flows upward from all the dealer hedging downward the past two weeks. Now that we've hit the bottom with retail capitulation and institution managed to accumulate ~50% of the float (according to some live metrics) was ~44-46% from official 13F filings though, might be a fun rally upward to match fundamentals from $7-9B ARR projections.

@aleabitoreddit $nbis going nuts. Might have to roll my CCs. Crazy bounce.


Summary: Long META; FCF/profitability accounting optics depressed price but fundamentals are strong, with seasonal pattern potentially repeating.

It is, i believe it’s largely due to accounting optics regarding FCF/profitability but $META is just printing money.

Also if we voodoo chart from last year, it looks shockingly similar with a drop from oct-> Nov and rally Jan 15th onward last year. Again, trend charting is all fake but they do work out sometimes.

But main thesis is just how markets react to accounting optics.

@aleabitoreddit Great minds think alike!!! Sold this CSP at market open. I think $META is one if the best opportunities in the market right now https://t.co/mEMZ9pJJRy


本格的な変動は $SNDKやメモリ市場で起きた事例のように、1〜2ヶ月後にボトルネックが生じた際に起こるでしょう。時価総額は依然として非常に小さく、メディアでの報道も皆無です。ここにいる皆さんは、単に市場より一足早く参入しているに過ぎません

Summary: Bullish AXTI: today's +20% understates the move; real surge expected in 1–2 months as export-regulation bottleneck hits; tiny market cap, no media coverage yet.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

本日の輸出規制により $AXTI が独占状態となったことを考えれば、今日の+20%を超える上昇はもっと大きくあるべきだったと考えていました！

しかし、本格的な変動は $SNDKやメモリ市場で起きた事例のように、1〜2ヶ月後にボトルネックが生じた際に起こるでしょう。
時価総額は依然として非常に小さく、メディアでの報道も皆無です。ここにいる皆さんは、単に市場より一足早く参入しているに過ぎません

ここで紹介させていただいた

$AXTI

20%の爆上げなのじゃ😍 https://t.co/uJdIOl9VYT


Summary: Bullish AXTI as the most direct play on the coming Indium supply chokepoint, with a bidding war expected mid-2026.

Just to make a correction to the Indium price above

6N grade Indium (Jan 2024, Jan 2025, Dec 2025) ~$680 / kg -> ~$840 / kg  -> ~$1,110 – $1,350 / kg

7N grade Indium
~$1,150 / kg -> ~$1,800 / kg -> $3,450+ / kg
1.6T requires 7N.

So prices have already started to ramp up, but I expect the huge chokepoint to come mid 2026.

Not sure where the price goes, I just expect a bidding war to secure materials and $AXTI probably had the most direct exposure to this over Sumitomo and others.

@aleabitoreddit 50 to 70x easy peasy by 2030.


Summary: Bullish NBIS as best-positioned AI infrastructure name: strong balance sheet and convertible note structure isolate it from credit/contagion pressures affecting peers.

Yeah I made another post about credit tightening and contagion from OpenAI in one of my other posts but $NBIS seems the best isolated in those terms because of their strong balance sheet, convertible note structure.

It’s mostly indiscriminate sector selloff on top of the something structural mainly affecting $CRWV, $ORCL and related co like $APLD. But given Nebius is high-beta, it can drop from $130 to $90 in 1 trading week but it can also go back to the same price in a short time.

If we go from the GPU depreciation short argument many others like $CIFR are also isolated because they just do colo, so a lot of the selloffs don’t make sense.

@aleabitoreddit @babyfolio I thought it was panic selling but looking at the bond markets (for APLD) and CDS (for CRWV), some of the selling is from contagion.

With that said I’m still accumulating NBIS.


I'm initiating a new position in $LITE, in the event the TPU becomes the dominant ASIC for inference. Lumentum is primary beneficiary of Google's commitment to OCS

Summary: Initiating long LITE as primary beneficiary of Google TPU v7 OCS buildout; less commoditization risk than standard transceiver market.

Analysis of the $GOOGL TPU v7 Ironwood Suppliers.

Here's the list of what comapnies are the most materially impacted by the Google's TPU buildout.

+ the TPU stock I'm taking a position on.

[Critical] Design/IP:
- Broadcom [ $AVGO ]: co-designs and implements Google’s TPU ASICs

[Critical/High] Semiconductor Fab:
- #1 Taiwan Semi [ $TSM ]: TPUv7 is fabbed at TSMC 3nm
-  #2 Samsung Electronics: Secondary memory & foundry partner

[Critical/High] Memory:
- #1 SK Hynix: HBM3E for TPUv7 Ironwood
- #2 Samsung Electronics: ~TPUv7-specific reporting emphasizes SK hynix + Samsung.

[High] Optical Networking:
- Lumentum [ $LITE ]: Google uses extensively uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS)
-  Coherent [ $COHR ]: OCS player but weaker

[High] Power Management ICs:
- Monolithic [ $MPWR ]: This is speculative that Vicor will be replaced by $MPWR, from earnings mentioning TPU

[Medium] Thermal Management:
- Vertiv [ $VRT ]: Vertiv supplies the CDUs that act as the heart of the liquid cooling system, pumping coolant to the cold plates on the TPU chips

- Modine [ $MOD ]: More speculative that they provide provides the massive chillers and air handling units (AHUs)

[Medium] Interconnects:
- TTM Technologies [ $TTMI ], $ANET, Unimicron, Ibiden

______

The buildout of the Google TPU v7 "Ironwood" represents the construction of a parallel silicon ecosystem designed to break the monopoly of $NVDA GPU.

The material impact is most concentrated in Broadcom (as the silicon architect and commercial vehicle), the Memory Complex (SK Hynix/Samsung), and the Optical/Power sectors (Lumentum/Vertiv) and was created from public evidence but is largely dependent on adoption, vendor shares, and competitive responses actually play out.

From this supply chain research, I'm initiating a new position in $LITE, in the event the TPU becomes the dominant ASIC for inference.

Lumentum is primary beneficiary of Google’s commitment to OCS and form the core of the "Apollo" OCS switches used in TPU pods.

The ramping of TPU v7 clusters translates directly to unit volume for Lumentum’s optical switch modules. And because OCS is a bespoke architecture unique to Google’s hyperscale approach, Lumentum faces less commoditization pressure here than in the standard transceiver market.

However all companies in this supply chain are set to benefit if the TPU v7 scales up from Anthropic, Meta, Apple, and others buying the $GOOGL ASIC.

Nvidia ( $NVDA ) reported a blowout Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY).

And guided $65B+ Q4 ($3B+ beat), and $500B+ USD in Blackwell/Rubin rev through CY 2026.

Despite that, the stock dropped 12%.

Is $NVDA a strong buy now? Here's the answer:

$GOOGL TPU's https://t.co/jMxLXSRr3I


Summary: Bullish META on stellar core earnings and EPS beat; views AI capex ROI concerns as narrative noise.

@DiscountedBTC For $META their core earnings were stellar and if you ignore the one time tax they strongly beat EPS.

It’s just an argument of whether AI capex is going into a black hole or will have ROI but that’s just narratives.

Easy buy for me


That's why Nebius has highest asymmetrical upside

Summary: Highest conviction long NBIS on software-stack moat; bullish all crypto-miner HPC names; transitioning off middleware like CRWV seen as moat risk for CRWV; ORCL cited as positive analog.

This is about HPC not bitcoin mining…

Just to summarize again, the point was miner margins will always be less than $NBIS because of middleware.

And how the transition off of middleware like $CRWV is an incredibly high moat (looking at $ORCL).

And if we go into the numbers, software stack > capacity due to how revenue translates more into profit vs. high revenue and no profit (ORCL)

That’s why Nebius has highest asymmetrical upside. I’m still bullish every crypto miner HPC

@aleabitoreddit What other crypto miners have these kinds of margins? Stands to reason IRENs margins in HPC can still be strong. And yes I’m talking about current margins- if BTC collapses then IREN margins go down the drain. Very bullish both.


the transition off of middleware like $CRWV is an incredibly high moat


I'm still bullish every crypto miner HPC

Crypto miner/HPC basket: Cipher, Core Scientific, Riot, Marathon


$19B for a money printer and issuer of the currency that's used for the digital dollar is vastly undervalued and I myself am piling in at $86

Summary: Long CRCL at $86; author argues $19B market cap is vastly undervalued for the issuer of the digital dollar standard with USDC network-effect moat.

I’d be impressed if ChatGPT could write comparisons between OF and card networks alongside personal experiences regarding stablecoin investments in the private sector.

Institutions did not balk at $31, $CRCL was vastly oversubscribed and the GENIUS act for stablecoins was passed after IPO.

If you read the post, the moat is network effect given its the standard for settlement and digital dollars.

There could be hundreds of other stablecoins from Paxos USD, PayPal USD, SOFI USD, and others but that doesn’t mean it will get widespread adoption.

USDC and USDT are already the duopoly and digital standard.

I also wrote this was the qualitative thesis. On companies like $RKLB that aren’t standard companies (like Circle) I would argue traditional valuation methods shouldn’t be used.

That being said, $19B for a money printer and issuer of the currency that’s used for the digital dollar is vastly undervalued and I myself am piling in at $86.

I’m just sharing my thesis, you’re free to take the other side of the trade. And I’d encourage you to back up your words!

@aleabitoreddit Did ChatGPT write this? Where is the analysis that justifies this valuation?!? Why did all the institutions balk at $31 but now retail should pile in at $86? What is the moat of USDC versus LITERALLY every other bank that can offer a stablecoin? This is a SHORT.


Summary: Long ASML long-term as sole EUV supplier / compounder, though not the most direct AI capex beneficiary.

I didn't include $ASML since they track fab cycles rather than the whole AI capex trade which $TSM or Samsung Electronics does (foundry + memory + misc)

But it's a good long term compounder as the sole EUV supplier vs. chasing the most direct beneficaries of the next TPU/Blackwell Cycle/LLM-agent buildout.

I'm sure you can swap out any one of the above with ASML

@aleabitoreddit Well-cooked!

I'd love a spot for $ASML in here as well


Summary: Long Venezuela-exposure plays on regime change/nation-building thesis: RMLFF (~3x CITGO auction), GRZ.V (~45x mining rights swap), plus COP/CVX/XOM/TDW/OI as creditor beneficiaries.

US now has control over Venezuela $17T+ Oil and $2T+ Mineral reserves.

This is the Gold Rush of 2026.

If your first thought was profiting on the situation, here's how:

$GRZ.V ($289.61M) | $RMLFF ($582m) - $8.1B+ in claims from Gold Reserves. Over 45 times (4500%+) upside in  pure assets if the full amount gets paid out to Gold Mining LTD.

Gold Reserves ( $GRZ.V) - Basically, Gold Reserve filed a new $7 billion claim (Gold Reserve v. Venezuela II) for the expropriation of their stake in the Siembra Minera project (Brisas/Cristinas mines). They already won a $1.1B arbitral award, which is 5x their share price (floor).

But, the full claim is unlikely as in a US-led reconstruction, Venezuela won't have the cash to pay $8.1B.

Instead, Gold Reserve would swap these massive debts for control of Siembra Minera rights back, one of the largest undeveloped gold/copper deposits on earth. Which presents extremely considerable upside (but this is higher risk).

Rusoro Mining ( $RMLFF ) – The "Citgo Auction"

Current Market Cap: ~$582M USD Claim Value: ~$1.87 Billion (including interest)

Unlike many others, Rusoro has attached its claim to the ongoing Delaware Court auction of PDV Holding. If the CITGO auction clears at a reasonable price, Rusoro gets paid in US Dollars, likely in 2025.

This would result in a cash injection of ~$1.8B into a company trading at ~$580M. This implies a ~200% to 300% return from current levels

TLDR: $RMLFF (Rusoro) - ~3x return driven by the CITGO Auction in the USA (High probability, lower multiple).

TLDR: $GRZ (Gold Reserve) - potential ~45x return driven by Regime Change/Nation Building and swapping debt for mining rights (Lower probability, massive multiple).

What else?

ConocoPhillips ( $COP, $119B MC) - Owed $10B+. They are the "whale" of creditors. This is extremely considerable amount of assets, but less impactful compared to $GRZ.V.

Chevron $CVX - Never fully left. They have been operating under a special OFAC license (General License 41).

ExxonMobil $XOM - Claims ~$1.6B

Tidewater ( $TDW ): Claims ~$80M

O-I Glass ( $OI ): Claims ~$700M, 35% cash injection relative to market cap. This is a sleeper hit. If they get their $700M from the Citgo sale, it dramatically improves their balance sheet.

US has now toppled Maduro's regime in Venezuela.

Everyone's first thought is:

How do I profit off Nation Building in Venezuela?

Here's how:

1. Distressed Debt + Bonds ( $ASHM, $HLI, $LAZ )

2x–3x multiple from "pure play" distressed Venezuelan debt owned by Ashmore $ASHM. https://t.co/GUdvm1WNUS


$GRZ (Gold Reserve) - potential ~45x return driven by Regime Change/Nation Building and swapping debt for mining rights


ConocoPhillips ( $COP, $119B MC) - Owed $10B+. They are the "whale" of creditors.


Chevron $CVX - Never fully left. They have been operating under a special OFAC license


industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'


O-I Glass ( $OI ): Claims ~$700M, 35% cash injection relative to market cap. This is a sleeper hit.


Summary: Long AVAV: $800M+ contract win, combat-proven Switchblade drones, defense spending tailwinds, small-cap upside.

It's not 10x but I really like $AVAV.

They won a $800m+ contract earlier last Dec, and then made the kamikaze switchblade drones that successfully disabled Venezuelan air defenses.

Given the success and $1.5T+ in defense spending, they'll likely be a huge winner, and upside is there given its small MC.

@aleabitoreddit What else is in your 10X basket


Wow that's immediately bullish for $AVGO

Summary: TPU v8 shipping is immediately bullish for AVGO as a supply-chain beneficiary.

@jukan05 Wow that’s immediately bullish for $AVGO. Do you have the info of the v8 supply chain/bom by any chance?

Bernstein: TPU v8 is already shipping. https://t.co/l7CXh00WC9


Summary: TGT likely goes up from here; friends on buy/sell-side also see it as undervalued at current prices.

@iamsattam Yeah I got lucky with the guidance timing. It would probably still go up anyway, maybe a few percent rather than 15% in a day.

Lot of my hedge fund/buyside-sellside friends think it's undervalued at current prices too.

@aleabitoreddit The 8% jump came the day they confirmed their guidance coinciding with being 6 days before the ex-div day. You think TGT might have something similar (15% for 100)?


Summary: Both SMCI and DELL are poised to benefit from the massive data center growth boom.

@ejdisokqaloa Yeah, I wasn't saying $NBIS was a customer of $SMCI but after re-reading, might sound like it.

Post was using others as a reference to DC sector growth + boom. And how $SMCI is a beneficiary.

The market is huge, so $SMCI, $DELL and others all are poised to do well.


$SMCI, $DELL and others all are poised to do well


Summary: Added to NBIS at $96; 700%+ YoY growth mispriced due to macro/sector fear, not fundamentals.

Northland ended up increasing their PT to $211 (Outperform) just now, but the $6 increase is likely just a random bump.

As you mentioned, we both  were modelling ~$5-7B ARR, and $NBIS just strongly blew out numbers with their earnings to a guided $7-9B figure.

Unfortunately there's a sector short/sell-off from $CRWV to $IREN but fundamentals are detached from stock price right now with the 20% selloff this week.

I ended up using this time to increase my position at $96. A business growing from 700%+ Y/Y is definitely not being priced correctly and largely off of fear from broader macro and sector correction.

@aleabitoreddit When Northland set their $205 PT in September, they modeled $2–4B ARR for 2026, fair at the time.

But back in August, we modeled $6–7B ARR in our research, arguing that $NBIS' megawatt intensity and software attach would push them ahead of schedule.

Fast forward to this


Summary: Currently holds NBIS, CIFR, and IREN as neocloud plays.

@Pacheca12345 I'm personally in $NBIS, $CIFR, $IREN right now. Looking at $WULF next since short interest is high but $GOOGL happens to own 14% of it.

$CRWV obviously market leader so far, $WYFI, $SLNH, $GRRR, are more speculative ones.

Lot of people like $BITF, $CLSK, $HIVE on their pivot.

@aleabitoreddit can you name more examples of these tiny new Neocloud companies you fancy?


Summary: DCA'd into META calls after reviewing earnings and news; ongoing bullish position.

Eh, might dip again going if Gov shutdown prolongs, who knows. I've been out with a pretty bad cold this week so haven't been spending much time looking at markets + reading X.

Just DCA'd calls on $META after reading through earnings + news, but otherwise pretty nonchalant few days for me.

@aleabitoreddit Hmm I woke up and saw all the high beta growth stocks down massively, decided to wait till end of day to see what happens before buying in and now the dip is gone. Ended up doing nothing lol


Summary: Considering adding DOCN on AI cloud pivot potential.

@jesnix7 It has potential since it's pivoting to AI cloud. I might add $DOCN in my port actually to see where it goes

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on $DOCN in this context?


Summary: Bullish small neocloud companies (3-5B market caps) powering MSFT Azure and GOOGL Cloud; asymmetric return potential over next 2 years with fastest runup in 8-12 months.

Neocloud basket of HPC/AI cloud infrastructure names

Probably fastest runup in the next 8-12 months since most people and markets still don't see the opportunity with all these tiny 3-5B companies powering AI compute for Google Cloud or Microsoft Azure yet until one of their earning reports.

These are contracts already locked in like 5Y for 17 Billion but markets are always forward looking so after 4 years if it looks like they'll start to pivot off like how apple did with Qualcomm, we'll see a revaluation.

But in the meantime 26B mc for a company powering $MSFT azure and 4B MC for a company powering $GOOGL cloud is hilarious forward rev potential and asymmetrical return next 2 years.

@aleabitoreddit Great write up my lord. For neoclouds generally would you be concerned about possible contraction in AI hyperscaler capex in a few years? I don't see it happening anytime soon, but could. Is there a time frame that you think would be good for taking profits and reducing exposure.


Summary: Long NBIS as deeply undervalued growth co; Avride subsidiary (83%-owned, Level 4 robotaxi) is unrecognized and could exceed current $21B market cap within 2 years.

Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y.

What's more insane is this.

Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯

Here's why:

$GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies right now.

Yes $NBIS Avride is one of the 5.

- And 1 of 4 with FSD Level 4 - fully driverless, the same level as Waymo.

- And 1 of 3 that are commercialized with FSD level 4 (Motional is R&D phase)

Tesla [ $TSLA ] robotaxis for perspective is only at Level 2 (requires human oversight).

People want to buy robotaxi companies because as Cathie Wood puts it “Robotaxis could represent 90% of $TSLA ‘s value).

So they buy exposure to the segment through trillion dollar companies like Waymo through the $3.6T $GOOGL and $1.4T $TSLA.

But there's a Level 4 FSD robotaxi company that is just about to compete with Waymo through $UBER:

That name is Avride, a $6 billion subsidiary company that $NBIS owns 83% of, and one that the market completely has missed. Avride is an

The $6B valuation was based off a Seeking Alpha analyst report (August 2025) that benchmarked Avride against Nuro's Series E valuation. Just in Jan 2025 it was estimated to be valued at $3.4 billion, growing almost double in just 6 months time (reflecting Avride's momentum with Uber and Hyundai).

Key recent developments supporting the current valuation:

- 2017: Avride founded though Yandex Self Driving Group

- 2017-2024: Development...

- October 2024: Multi-year Uber partnership for delivery robots and robotaxis

- March 2025: Hyundai MOU for co-development of Level 4 autonomous vehicles

- October 2025: Up to $375 million in strategic investment from Uber and Nebius

- By EOY 2025: Dallas Texas Robotaxi Launch with Uber  We’re now seeing 7 years of R&D starting commercialization ramp (like Waymo), through $UBER this year.

and you can get this hyper scaling self-driving FSD level 4 robotaxi company. As discounted spare change of $NBIS at a $21B marketcap. 🚗

Seeing how Avride is growing triple digits Y/Y and we’re seeing the company finally commercialize after 7 years of capex into research, there’s a nonzero chance it becomes valued way more than the Nebius current market cap in 2 years.

We've seen Waymo grow from a $45B marketcap (October 2024, $5.6B raised) to over $200B+ (DA Davison suggested valuation).

Avride is now only at $6B and a small change of $NBIS's marketcap. But it's at the precipice of growth with $UBER, just like how Waymo started out in SF but now it's everywhere.

Nebius ( $NBIS ) is the misunderstood growth company in the market. But being early to the next generation companies is where the highest returns are made as an investor

Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now.

And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason:

It's portfolio companies are mindblowing.

The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. https://t.co/PSlKgjjP8D


Summary: Author's top compute picks: NBIS #1, CIFR #2 on favorable risk/reward, IREN speculative but expects hyperscaler contract soon.

I personally like $NBIS the best.

$CIFR is close second, since it's like Nebius-light to me in terms of contracts + dilution. Risk reward was great given marketcap size.

$IREN is more speculative since they don't have any hyperscaler contracts locked in but I'd expect them to have one soon.

@aleabitoreddit I'm only in NBIS of the compute companies and am trying to figure out which other ones to get into. You make it difficult to choose 😂 tempted to just go all in with NBIS


$CIFR is close second, since it's like Nebius-light to me in terms of contracts + dilution. Risk reward was great given marketcap size.


$IREN is more speculative since they don't have any hyperscaler contracts locked in but I'd expect them to have one soon.


I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot

Summary: Long ALAB with $175K position scaling to $500K; thesis: Mag7 customer base, 150%+ growth, 76% margins, next 1000% on AI infra buildout.

The reason why $ALAB is taking off is because Astera is   the only small cap company in existence with systemic exposure to 5 of the Mag7.

1. ALAB's customer base is literally Mag 7: $GOOGL, $MSFT, $NVDA, $META, and $AMZN.

2. They're growing at astounding rates ~150%+ y/y, with 76% margins (with higher margins than NVDA, one of the highest in the semi market).

3. Capex is still increasing for AI spend, as seen with $GOOGL earnings.

NVDA started at a 150B market cap -> 4 TRILLION+ because hyperscalers needed GPUs. We're the start of this effect with ALAB for the AI supply chain, and it's starting at a small 20B market cap.

We could see this being the next 1000% if they execute properly and AI infrastructure buildout continues.


Summary: Long VLN on claimed deep mispricing: $80M+ revenue, NVDA-like margins, $93.5M cash, yet trades at 2.5x EV/rev vs 14-18x peers.

I think a lot of it comes from an extreme lack of understanding.

People are welcome to fact check everything from financials posted to the -$82m technical glitch that Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners all posted.

$VLN isn't some random pump and dump Chinese penny stock, they have $80m+ forward revenue off 69-70% $NVDA like margins for their robotics vertical (majority of revenue) and $95M cash + $11m Inventory.

It's not unknown either, Samsung, Mobileye, Mercedes, Logitech, Siemens, and many other OEMs and robotics + AI companies are $VLN's customers.

VLN trades at ~2.5 EV/revenue at $2.5 while Lattice, Macom, and similar companies they all trade at 14-18x.

It's just me posting about the genuine mispricing and why I'm long. Markets can price it in however they want and I really encourage people to do the research themselves.

Also most of all, this information discovery helps all the employees at this suppressed chipmaker start to grow again if markets start to make corrections based on misinformation about the inventory burn.

---

@illyquid correction* $93.5m cash on hand + $11m inventory.


Summary: Hold ALAB and CRDO into next year on connectivity/data-center buildout; MINT offers asymmetric upside.

@soulbiri1 $ALAB + $CRDO 15%+ increase was expected due to connectivity going insane like memory $MU/Sk Hynix on data center buildout.

I'd personally hold them into next year, maybe trim a tiny bit.

$MINT was just asymmetrical upside.  To @Neat_Lama, here's another song #2 of the album. https://t.co/yvd68BBX0R

@aleabitoreddit I'm debating taking profits on $ALAB and $CRDO (bought both thanks to your strong buy rating on a previous post) and rolling it into $MINT. Good idea?


Summary: IREN deserves re-rating after de-risking event; NBIS deal margins superior to IREN's on normalized basis.

@moninvestor Like what they say with hands, the bigger the better (~$19B $NBIS vs ~9B $IREN).

Half-joking aside, this was a material de-risking event for $IREN and deserves re-rating. Will need more time to do valuations

(This was the tierlist maker if any other finx wanted to make one) https://t.co/oefhQy7Trn

---

After looking into it more, looks like $NBIS's deal with $MSFT was largely better than $IREN's in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW.

 It's not purely about revenue, since if you're not generating FCF from it, it's not that useful.

For $IREN:
$9.7bn total contract value
$5.8bn GPU capex, including ancillaries
~38% gross margin.

$NBIS
51.76%+ gross margin.

I need to do more calculations to verify, this was just a quick deep-research calculation in terms of deal differences.


$NBIS's deal with $MSFT was largely better than $IREN's in terms of profitability and margins


Summary: Strong buy on NBIS: detached from fundamentals to the upside + MSCI inflow catalyst of few hundred million to low billion incoming.

@YodaStockInvest $NBIS is incredibly detached from fundamentals right now and we have MSCI few hundred million-low billion inflow in a week.

Not just a buy but incredibly strong buy!

That being said most assets are dropping like flies across the board right now.


Summary: Adding to NBIS during drawdown; confident in recovery based on fundamentals and existing contracts.

Thanks! I personally don't mind a 32% drawdown as much since I'm confident $NBIS will recover purely based off of fundamentals and existing contracts. So I use this time to add more.

But a lot of retail are probably worried because they bought off momentum.

So I'm trying my best to spread awareness of fundamentals + tactics MMs/insitutions use to build up portfolio sizing so people can make clearer decisions.

@aleabitoreddit @genZinvest0r Appreciate sharing your insights with us. Keep it up!
Also, it's unfair to cry on your sharing because of the down days.


With many companies like $BMNR, you're better off holding the underlying $ETH asset

Summary: Prefer ETH directly over BMNR; MARA less compelling vs direct BTC; MSTR is exception among crypto holding companies due to BTC accumulation scale.

If you look at historical patterns such as grayscale investments, which was the way to get crypto exposure from holding companies pre-ETF, they traded way under-NAV for the longest time.

With many companies like $BMNR, you’re better off holding the underlying $ETH asset. With $MARA it’s a mix of holding $BTC as well as the mining business + optionally to transition to HPC.

I would only argue $MSTR is an exception to holding companies due to how much $BTC they’ve accumulated and the potential for nationalization for the US government to get exposure to Bitcoin.

With crypto fear index at 15 (lowest YTD), this could be the moment to accumulate quality risk.

If you’re betting on a 2026 crypto resurgence, NAV-levered equities offer asymmetric upside.

$BMNR $MSTR $MARA https://t.co/NIl3Iity8D


you're better off holding the underlying $ETH asset


With $MARA it's a mix of holding $BTC as well as the mining business


I would only argue $MSTR is an exception to holding companies due to how much $BTC they've accumulated and the potential for nationalization


Summary: Long NBIS on robotaxi/DC upside; cautious/avoid IREN near-term on dilution risk; long CIFR on hyperscaler backstop + BTC; long TE on energy theme.

Okay so from my perspective

$NBIS - Highest asymmetrical upside possible because they have 4 subsidaries like robotaxis growing 100%+ Y/Y alongside their core operational DC business. It's just a waiting game until market prices in parts (eg. $UBER rose a ton from self driving cars with Avride, but $NBIS had no movement but owns Avride).

I really really like robotaxis and Avride. I don't know how markets aren't seeing this opportunity (maybe we're just early, institutions accumulated over 52% of the float last i checked though from 38%, so some are probably aware).

$IREN - highest possible upside, but biggest risk of them all. Just for their $MSFT deal they had to dilute and pay for $5.8B+ worth of hardware just to do the deal and ended up spending up $2m/mw in costs just for expedited buildout. However, that was just to monetize a small amount of capacity and they're going the AI cloud route instead of colo buying GPUS, unlike $CIFR. I'd be extremely worried as an investor if they kept doing GPU offerings because of execution uncertainty and extreme, extreme amount of dilution to monetize that "3 GW pipeline". Maybe it would be better off waiting another few months because near term investors are harmed the most.

 $CIFR - probably safest one in the neocloud sector since they are backstopped by $AMZN and $GOOGL, large amounts of bitcoin on balance sheet for next halving event, and are doing slower revenue growth but higher margin colo offerings with revenue visibility from hyperscaler deals

$TE - energy is a good play.

Your portfolio is incredibly volatile lol (can swing -50%) but it's fine if you're born from the depths of wsb reddit, crypto, and options.

@aleabitoreddit This is definitely a good breakdown but would u say if its a smaller portfolio ~100k you can position yourself aggressively by getting 30-30-30 with $NBIS, $IREN and $CIFR and then a bit of $TE?


Maybe it would be better off waiting another few months because near term investors are harmed the most


probably safest one in the neocloud sector since they are backstopped by $AMZN and $GOOGL, large amounts of bitcoin on balance sheet for next halving event


Summary: 5-year targets: RKLB to $350B market cap (matching SpaceX); Bitcoin to $400k.

@sunny21704 @WaggaDoo $RKLB 350B marketcap to match SpaceX. Bitcoin $400k

@aleabitoreddit @WaggaDoo What are your 5 year PTs for both of them?


Summary: Expects UNH to rise after earnings and BRK portfolio update disclosure.

@MakhmudovAkbar It's fine to hold. Not a screaming buy like $260 but I'd expect it to go up after earnings + $BRK posting updates on their portfolio holdings.

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on UNH? Bought Apr’26 $350 calls when it was $280. The upcoming earnings they either say everything is fine and they’re getting along with gov which I hope they skyrocket or they don’t and it tanks


This was priced as a dying hardware company but now they're the likely frame of every humanoid robot.

Summary: Bullish SSYS: mispriced as dying hardware co, now positioned as likely structural frame supplier for humanoid robots.

Definitely not lol. That’s HFT or institutional algorithms with $SSYS. I’ve noticed that they track my X posts nowadays

Also I do post quite a lot of new information discovery/synthesis. This was priced as a dying hardware company but now they’re the likely frame of every humanoid robot.

@aleabitoreddit Wow was that pump you entering the play or was that institutional algos scraping your post?


Summary: Bullish SMCI: undervalued with strong forward revenue projections if numbers are accurate.

@LiquidB_B undervalued, great buy based on their forward revenue projections (if they're not making stuff up)

@aleabitoreddit Love these updates ... any thoughts on SMCI? Thanks.


Summary: Medium-term bullish on Neocloud names CRWV, IREN, NBIS as yen carry unwind resolves and rate cuts benefit debt-fueled growth assets.

Short term unwinding from yen carry trade (Japan rate hike, fed cut), which was slightly negative.

Medium term impact should be incredibly bullish on growth assets, especially Neocloud sector that involve debt for growth like $CRWV, $IREN, $NBIS.

Don't see any fundamentals slowing, so great time to go long imo


especially Neocloud sector that involve debt for growth like $CRWV, $IREN, $NBIS


Summary: Long RKLB for 5-8 years; sees $350B market cap potential akin to SpaceX.

@vicecarloans $UPWK, $HOOD, $IREN, and would be 16 17 18 lol.

For $RKLB just hold it for 5-8 years, should be $350B market cap like SpaceX one day.


Summary: Long Coinbase as a vertically integrated crypto infrastructure winner that can actually disrupt traditional finance, unlike app-layer wrappers.

Coinbase Global trades as COIN on NASDAQ

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'

Extremely disagree with the thesis.

Everyone building YC fast-go-to-market "sick app with world-class UX" like crypto cards are just building extra friction on top of Visa network.

People building "sick blockchain neobanks" with crypto on-ramps on top of Zerohash on top of Moonpay on top of X wrapper on top are just wrappers on top of wrappers.

Margins don't go down. Nothing changes in the industry.

People are still paying 1.5% for Stablecoins Stripe via Bridge. People are still paying .8% for a Bitcoin on-ramp through IBKR via Zerohash.

Merchants are still paying 2.2%-2.9% through the POS terminal, even though USDC  SOL is probably 1 cent.

If  (stablecoin infrastructure) or wanted to start building applications themselves like Apple from remittance/3pp or Neobanks, via they could easily wipe out the fancy UI apps everything on top.

And they should.

True long term winners will be vertically integrated infrastructure with money transmitter licenses (Coinbase), banking charters (Circle), and others to actually disrupt traditional finance.

Not fancy application UIs that just add to the current mess, and fix nothing.

Just skimmed the new Delphi report on 2026 apps and it perfectly aligns with how we at Moonrock Capital see the next decade of investing in this space.

As crypto infrastructure becomes cheap, commoditized, and interchangeable, the center of gravity shifts upward: value will https://t.co/uUc8pnpTtn


Summary: Both HUT and SLNH look promising based on their pipeline figures; author in 5 neoclouds expecting them to go up.

@NoahIAvest I’m in like 5 neoclouds right now. I’m sure they’ll all go up together just need to pick the ones you have highest conviction on.

I haven’t done enough research on $HUT or $SLNH to give an option but based on those figures they both would look promising.

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit Thoughts on Cryptominers and early development "neoclouds" like $HUT and $SLNH with 10.6 GW and 2.8 GW pipelines. I mean a good chance they get bought by the larger players down the line but still more of an opportunity to be early.


Summary: Long VLN: ticker-collision error keeps algo pricing wrong; napkin math implies $7.30 vs $2.28 on $130M 5x EV/Sales + $93.5M net cash.

$VLN looks like an algorithmic short trade about to go terribly wrong.

Not all algorithms read X, and are still modeling the company off -$82 million cash off the balance sheet from ticker collision typos.

Even napkin math would be ~$7.30 (from $2.28 currently) share price.

From forward 2027, $130M 5x EV/Sales + $93.5M net cash. On top of that VLN has $NVDA like margins for their robotics and non-automotive vertical.

This is a lightweight, high-margin fabless semi in premium verticles with a $93m+ cash pile and $11m+ in inventory.

Yet algorithms are pricing in <1Y runway with massive cash burns.

This is starting to look like one of the few instances where ticker collision goes terribly wrong for algorithms and amazingly right for retail who spotted this early on X.

I've initiated a position in $VLN ($155M MC).

This one is wild.

Valens is a AI semi for self-driving cars and robotics.

I've found that markets messed up on VLS from a ticker collision data error.

And missed new CES 2026 info this week.

VLN has:

1. $93.5M in Cash, 0 https://t.co/tqHBH77c2O


Summary: Hyperscaler compute demand is insanely bullish for IREN and NBIS as neocloud beneficiaries.

I had $CRWV yesterday $122.5, and sold it $138.1 today.

Just got lucky with timing. I didn't have enough time to do a deep dive into the META contract yet, but just because META and other hyperscalers are looking for compute now this is insanely bullish for $IREN $NBIS.

I did sell but I'll probably spend an hour or two to look into the contract + valuation after I eat some salad.

Personally I've always liked the other neoclouds more than crwv just cause of debt interest, but maybe the meta contracts would make me reconsider this as a long, ill need to look into it more

@aleabitoreddit Does the META 14B contract for $CRWV change your outlook for them? At what level would you consider taking a position?


Summary: Downgraded IREN due to execution risk in full-stack HPC AI cloud pivot vs CRWV and ORCL incumbents.

I don't use full-stack and vertically integrated interchangeably, my wording is very precise when I talk about $ORCL.

$NBIS does mixed to expand margins.

The main issue with $IREN is that they're doing full-stack where software orchestration is an incredible and misunderstood moat and it increases execution risk by magnitudes.

If you get it right you have the highest margins/revenue in the industry. But $CRWV spent years and billions in acquisitions to get it right and the CEO said on call that software was their moat.

It's hard to convince the market that $IREN, which is doing a brand new pivot into HPC AI cloud, will have better full-stack that $CRWV spent years building and that $ORCL a $500B+ company failed ot do so far. This is the lingering execution risk that led me to DG $IREN.

But of course if they get it spot-on (which is difficult), then it has incredibly high return potential.

@aleabitoreddit ORCL is not full stack. They’re leasing DC’s galore.

And didn’t CRWV’s result highlight the same problems NBIS might face? Relying on third parties for timely DC delivery might be problematic?

Thus IREN as the only full stack IaaS provider in that list is the only one that


Summary: Long LTC into Oct 2nd ETF launch; hasn't yet front-run like SOL, dip is a buy opportunity.

If you see this without a wide market drop:

1. Traders with 10-50x leverage got liquidated.

2. LTC ETF will get denied.

It's prob #1.

$SOL already got frontran (up 20%+ in 7D). $LTC has not and launch is Oct 2nd.

It's profitable to buy dips during leverage liquidations https://t.co/95GmmYW9LR


Summary: Long NBIS via LEAPs; expects a rally similar to HOOD's move from low to $100+.

@soulbiri1 $NBIS leaps should print, reminds me of the time $HOOD went from $40 to $29 then went on a rally to $100+.

I trade on my own conviction!

@aleabitoreddit Started buying some LEAPs at your recommended strike and expiry. Will watch and buy more if the market is flat/down by EOD. Really appreciate the call out on your purchase my lord!! https://t.co/sRP649LPDS


Summary: Long TSSI, MRVL, SMCI as follow-the-leader plays on beaten-down names with room to run in the semi/AI rally.

And $TSSI up 5.2% 2 hours later after I posted.

It’s almost free money playing follow the leader on stocks that are down a ton like $MRVL, $SMCI.

Lot of room to run given that it dropped from the $30s. https://t.co/Ud9FgrAbz8

Bought $40K of $TSSI now that the Semi rally extended back to server racks like $SMCI.

Down from $31 -> $13.6, good chance for a rebound for small caps given the rest of semis/AI from $TSM, $CREDO, $NBIS, $AVGO, $MRVL, $ALAB and others have rallied. https://t.co/jWkww0Avro


playing follow the leader on stocks that are down a ton like $MRVL, $SMCI


Summary: Bullish NBIS on a 2-year horizon as a structural AI compute beneficiary; bearish beyond 5Y when hyperscaler buildout completes.

Since someone pinged me, I disagree on your fundamental assumption that you're basing TAM off of, but valid points.

AI compute growth is actually a structural market that's growing exponentially right now fro new frontier model LLM usage, and will continue to grow from applied AI applications (robotics, etc). Implying MSFT/Google's 5-10 year contracts confirmed usage contracts "overflow" that will vanish (temporary liquidity) is misleading.

If you wanted to reword it in saying the overflow that Neoclouds captured now might not exist after hyperscalers complete their buildout, sure. I'd agree with you, next 5Y-10Y out I'd be more worried (after GCP 10y contracts end of Azure 5Y contracts end). Especially when $AVGO x Hyperscaler custom asics, TPUs/Tranium, etc + buildout gets complete. (As a trader I'm bullish on a 2 year timeframe, not so much 5Y+ plus).

Second thing is trying to quantitatively model TAM of something so speculative such as AI buildout is the wrong way to approach it.

On top of that, the 10-15% figure is overly pessimistic because it ignores repeat-overflow from hyperscalers if AI compute is a growing structural market. But you're going off the assumption grid capacity will catch up, which I disagree, and that's fine.

Again I have a slight problem with these kind of math for $NBiS because it misses the essence in my opinion.
Right now, Nebius is catching overflow.  hyperscalers are grid-capped and pushing demand outward. That’s what’s inflating the near-term numbers.
But that’s a liquidity


Summary: Hyperscalers will go upstream to secure InP supply directly from AXTI, DOWA, and others controlling InP feedstock, making them the key beneficiaries.

$COHR is amazing and probably the leading US company for InP substrate prod with their new 6in wafer fab.

Two nuances:

1. Their production is nowhere close to the scale needed for hyperscalers that $AXTI and Sumitomo currently outputs

2. They are bottlenecked by upstream InP feedstock needed to grow crystals (owned by Vital, $DOWA, and $AXTI (captive)).

CEO said in their ER that their capacity was maxed out and limited by InP lasers (and by 1 hop InP needed to produce them)

My thought process is that instead of placing more order backlogs with $COHR, hyperscalers would go upstream. They would directly source 6n-7n from Vital, $DOWA, $AXTI and others that control InP, and give them to fabs like Sumitomo / $COHR or one level higher, buy out stock of InP substrates -> hand to $LITE as insurance.

That being said a lot of money will likely be poured into Western supply chains but their capacity is nowhere enough since they're still bottlenecked upstream.

@aleabitoreddit What about Coherent/II-VI? They don't produce their own InP substrates?


hyperscalers would go upstream. They would directly source 6n-7n from Vital, $DOWA, $AXTI and others that control InP

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'


Summary: High-conviction long LITE as core to every hyperscaler GPU/TPU/ASIC; bullish CRDO on ALAB-like margins, triple-digit growth, and hyperscaler connectivity exposure.

Thanks for the $LITE shoutout.   I didn't realize how instrumental it was to $NVDA blackwell, $GOOGL TPUs, and $AMZN Trainium chips.

Insane how it's part the core of single GPU/TPU/ASIC from every hyperscaler (hence why it's high-conviction)

As for $CRDO, similar ground to $ALAB regarding high-Nvidia like margins, triple digit Y/Y growth, and hyperscaler dependencies for connectivity.

@aleabitoreddit Hey @aleabitoreddit I was trying to get your attention back in September about $LITE, and now I’m going to try and get your attention for $CRDO 😆 what do you think about Credo? 👀


similar ground to $ALAB regarding high-Nvidia like margins, triple digit Y/Y growth, and hyperscaler dependencies for connectivity


Summary: Long NBIS as highest-upside full-stack Neocloud; bearish on miners/baremetal operators including CIFR, IREN, WULF on margin compression at scale; CRWV also struggling vs NBIS.

Markets are starting to price in:

A divergence between AWS-style full-stack Neoclouds like $NBIS and miners such as $CIFR, $BITF, $CLSK, and others.

This is the reason I sold off $IREN $WULF and others, and consolidated into Nebius.

Why?

💹 Margins > ⚡Capacity.

Just today:

The CTO of Nebius stated:

“Almost no Neocloud in the market is actually a cloud. As in a bunch of baremetal with a ton of third-party software slapped on top.”

Provocative? Absolutely not — if you take the term “cloud” seriously, not just as slapping on a bunch of hardware boxes.

Danila explained how baremetal operators will soon discover the challenges Nebius has already solved at scale.

And that’s exactly why I stated $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical upside, since miners may struggle with margins at scale.

We’ve also seen a Forbes article by Nebius Co-Founder Roman Chernin, summarize how the AI economy requires a new, full-stack, AI-native infrastructure, not the stitched-together systems:

“You can buy racks from one supplier, cable them together... but in the long term, economics, flexibility and speed depend on you controlling your own stack.”

“If you control the stack, you control the product, the performance, and the economics.”

_

This doesn’t mean there’s no room for other HPC companies like $WYFI, $APLD, $WULF, and others to grow, and the Neocloud segment is just beginning its run-up (especially when we look at $META or $AMZN earnings).

However, during the speculation phase, we’ve already priced in capacity buildout with miners - most are already up 50–200%+.

But when it comes to execution, those who control the full stack will win on margins.

We’ve seen $CRWV figure that out firsthand, spending billions on software acquisitions and still maintaining lower utilization than $NBIS (as per the whitepaper).

We’ve also seen how an $800B hyperscaler (Oracle) failed to build out its stack, running at 14% gross margins.

If Oracle couldn’t fully integrate its software, and CoreWeave is still spending years trying to do so,  how will small miners pivot?

Arguments from “Type-1 only” operators will find out the hard way what margin compression at scale looks like.

As the Forbes article concludes:

“At the end of the day, if you’re just cabling the boxes or building service on top of infrastructure you don’t control, you’re limited in the game of scale and efficiency.”

 $NBIS already has that full stack today.

The harsh reality is:

Many of these HPC miner pivots will fail.

The lack of asymmetrical upside is why I sold off miners like $CIFR, $IREN, $WYFI, and $WULF and into full-stack AWS Neoclouds like $NBIS

However, miners that pivot well like $CRWV have very high upside 📈

Why? https://t.co/AS0xuiBv0Y


sold off miners like $CIFR, $IREN, $WYFI, and $WULF


sold off $IREN $WULF and others, and consolidated into Nebius


CoreWeave is still spending years trying to do so, how will small miners pivot


Summary: Would sell ETH at $3900; sees better opportunities elsewhere and would not buy the dip above $3K.

@StockSavvyShay I'd sell $ETH at $3900 if I still had positions in it still. $BMNR tracks ETH so no point of buying it if you don't believe in the underlying asset.

It could rebound to $4k+ if you're swing trading. I would not buy the dip above $3k+ otherwise

Better opportunities outside

People are panicking that $ETH just slipped into a bear market.

Tom Lee, Druckenmiller, Thiel, Griffin & Fink are backing Ethereum at the same time the U.S. govt needs stablecoins to support treasury demand. Most of that supply sits on ETH.

Smells like opportunity under $4K. https://t.co/TUnCe1tDea


Summary: Long HIMS; holds for short-squeeze upside, expects major moves over coming months.

@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 $HIMS short share is extremely low. It's being actively shorted, which is probably one of the main reasons why it dropped today.

---

@mattia030339 @soulbiri1 I've always maintained risk/reward of a short squeeze is worth holding.

$HIMS makes all its major moves in 2-3 days randomly every few months. It's one of those things you need to be patient on.


Summary: Long CIFR on post-dip ascent pattern mirroring NBIS; also long ORCL post-earnings-dip for massive rally on changed fundamentals.

I make fun of charting but sometimes it's genuinely helpful for pattern based reasoning (not TA).

History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes for companies in similar sectors.

With things material to fundamentals:

Eg. $NBIS (64->100->86) vs. $CIFR (+32% into -18% into rise) post $17B MSFT deal and GOOGL 3B deal.

We'll likely see CIFR increase like NBIS after the dip.

It followed the same pattern where it rose 32%, then dropped 18%, and now it's beginning it's ascent similar to NBIS.

Same thing can be said about AVGO post earnings (then dip, then massive rally) and ORCL now (great earnings, dip, then massive rally), because fundamentals changed.

Thought I'd bring some Reddit style charting to X but this is one of the times generally when charting helps imo.

Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like:

"It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS.

Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc.

Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks:

1. $NBIS -


ORCL now (great earnings, dip, then massive rally), because fundamentals changed


Summary: Long AXTI and SMTOY as duopoly chokepoint on InP substrates powering AI photonics buildout; LITE and COHR benefit from price spikes as downstream transceiver makers.

The "InP Chokepoint": The Bottleneck of the AI Buildout explanation:

The future of $NVDA Blackwell, $META MTAI, $GOOGL TPU, and $MSFT Maia ramp is tied to:

A $700M small cap $AXTI and $SMTOY.

The AI "Growth" story ends in 2026 if there's no solution to InP.

Here's why:

The AI industry started its migrating to photonics for future ASIC/GPU deployments, because copper is hitting a physical limit.

However, in doing so, hyperscalers traded the common material for InP (Indium Phosphide), when there's only a few factories capable of producing 6-inch InP wafers at the purity levels required for lasers.

Let's take for example Google and their TPU v7 Ironwood program:

Google uses Optical Circuit Switching (OCS), in simpler terms, switchboards made of light. For every one of those TPUs in the pod to talk, they require InP-based lasers. $LITE, which works with Google on this, largely depends on InP substrate (eg. AXT/Sumitomo) to make them.

If they don't have it Google's entire Ironwood program doesn't just "slow down", it hits the wall.

Modern ASICs/GPUs from  $NVDA GB series, $AMZN Trainium, $MSFT Maia, $META MTAI have all made the same bet: Light is the way forward.

Now, here's the issue.

The entire Western AI roadmap is currently tethered to a $700M small-cap and a single Japanese company that produce majority of the world's InP substrates required for photonics.

It's currently a duopoly (rough estimates majority supply ~60% between AXT + Sumitomo), with recent estimates of ~70%+ coming from Sumitomo Electric, AXT, Freiberger, JX, and Visual Photonics Epitaxy (filling in the gaps).

Regardless, the entire future AI supply chain is thinner than a needle:

- Moomoo Research: InP market is in a state of "global scramble" and "serious supply shortage" NVIDIA GB200 rollout (scale-out still requires tons of InP, not NVL72 within-the-rack comm).

- Demand for high-speed transceivers today probably exceeds the supply by almost a factor of two (LightCounting)

- Seeing record booking, but explicitly "supply-constrained by InP lasers" ( $COHR CEO Q3 ER)

- McKinsey: 40% to 60% shortfall for 800G modules and a 30% to 40% shortfall for 1.6T modules.

And these reports are likely understanding + very conserative given the demand ramp. Even going off Microsoft's projections on Maia ramp, ( est. 1M+ Maia by 2027 on UBS $MRVL note), with 2 million+ units of 1.6T transceivers over the next year, this volume is so large it represents a double-digit percentage of global substrate output.

The projected "exponential growth" of AI is about to collide with the reality of critical material production. So, the "Ironwood", "MTIA" and "Maia" ramps aren't just ambitious, they may be impossible under current material constraints.

Even if $COHR, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, $AXTI, and others, ramp up at maximum capacity (eg. $COHR / JX -> 6-inch InP wafers for 4x capacity), they still might not be able to meet the increasing demand from hyperscalers. Especailly with demand spikes occurring, eg. just for $NVDA alone (GB200/GB300 revisions).

There are technical solutions like silicon photonics is one solution to bridge the gap, but this still largely requires an external InP laser as the light source. TFLN or quantum dot lasers are many many years away.

There's probably no escaping the InP requirements for the next few years.

So, the mismatch between chip design and material availability has created a strategic chokepoint, where if you go to the very bottom of the supply chain, very few companies control a majority of allocations, pricing, and supply. This is especially dangerous when compounded with geopolitical risks on US/China relations + export controls.

That being said, here's what's probably what's going to happen:

- Price Spikes: Prices from $AXTI, JX, Sumitomo will spike significantly -> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight (also increases prices from pass down)

- Hyperscalers will directly stockpile materials, bypassing traditional component procurement and buying InP substrate inventory from $AXTI, JX Nippon, Sumitomo, and directly to consign to transceiver manufacturers like $LITE.

(eg. Meta would bypass transceiver companies and go directly to AXT or Sumitomo)

- Hyperscalers will buy out production allocation ( like $NVDA that has already aggressively "locked in" EML capacity (manufactured on InP substrates).

Buying a substrate manufacturer or production allocation would become a necessity to so others like $NVDA or $GOOGL doesn't starve them out.

As TPU v7 and and as other hyperscalers ramp up in 2026-2027, we will likely enter a "hunger games" phase for substrates where only each hyperscaler will be cannibalizing each other's growth for resource allocation.

Companies like $NVDA (with record amounts of pre-allocation), might ramp be okay for the time being, but others programs would likely face major delays.

Thoughts:

1. Some hyperscalers might be fine ( $NVDA). Others like $GOOGL and $MSFT will need to buy out materials + allocation before others do.

2. Industry needs to double down on engineering shifts like copper life extension and more material efficient ways like SiPh.

3. Move to 6-inch wafers for yields (eases things, but still not enough to meet demand)

So the way things are now, the multi-trillion dollar AI scaling are tethered to some obscure $700m company $AXTI and $SMTOY. It seems inevitable that AI will hit the physical ceiling because of InP substrate capacity unless architectures change.

In 2024, the bottleneck was GPUs. In 2025, it was HBM. In 2026, the primary constraint will likely be the optical interconnect, and specifically, the InP substrates that power them.

This has now become the hidden bottleneck of the AI buildout.

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:

1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)

Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.

Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and https://t.co/8mqrgONJbb


Price Spikes: Prices from $AXTI, JX, Sumitomo will spike significantly -> $LITE, $COHR


I like $FLY. Reminds me exactly of how $RKLB started. I'm holding this one for years

Summary: Long FLY for years; compares early trajectory to RKLB, holding despite usually disliking speculative companies.

@soulbiri1 I normally don’t like speculative companies this much lol but I like $FLY.

Reminds me exactly of how $RKLB started. I’m holding this one for years

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for the share, love the ticker it already gives bullish vibes


Yeah worth holding $LTC. I was just about to comment it's working its way back up. I'm still holding mine.

Summary: Still holding LTC; says it's working back up and worth holding given ETF catalyst and altcoin rally environment.

@Indigo_Pilot Yeah worth holding $LTC. I was just about to comment it's working its way back up.

There's quite a lot of random altcoin rallies like $ZEC, probably wouldn't want to miss Litecoin, especially that it has an ETF now.

I'm still holding mine.

@aleabitoreddit Appreciate your analysis! Do you think it's still worth holding $LTC? The catalyst passed, and the coin still hasn't moved much.


Planet Labs, a lesser known, small cap $3.5B space company, has huge upside with this deal. a full constellation would bring in $250 million to $1 billion+

Summary: Long PL as primary beneficiary of Google's Project Suncatcher space datacenter initiative; long RKLB as a highest-conviction play on the launch provider angle.

Google ( $GOOGL ) CEO recently unveiled: Project Suncatcher, a project to create datacenters in space in 2027.

Next generation TPUs will run on solar-powered satellite constellations to scale ML flows.

The biggest beneficiary?

Planet Labs ( $PL ) and by derivative $RKLB and SpaceX.

Planet Labs, a lesser known, small cap $3.5B space company, has huge upside with this deal.

Planet labs will deploy two prototype satellites for Google, targeting a launch by early 2027. The launch providers that $PL uses are $RKLB (January 2018 and October 2020) and SpaceX. One of which (Rocketlab) reminds one of my highest conviction longs.

For $PL revenue is likely in the small $10-$40M range. But a full constellation would bring in $250 million to $1 billion+ (and more at scale) if the prototype goes well.

Are you riding the $GOOGL supplier train?


Rocketlab reminds one of my highest conviction longs


Summary: Long RKLB targeting a 10x to SpaceX's ~$350B market cap over 4–10 years; clear second-place in space launch.

@Neat_Lama nooo, SpaceX is already a $350B company, there's almost no second place aside from $RKLB sitting at 22B.

I'm pretty confident RKLB will grow into SpaceX's marketcap in due time whether it's 4 years or 10 years but that's a 10x from here.

@aleabitoreddit These are very confusing times. I saw the same thing, but my dad was talking about selling his $RKLB because of the uncertainty and he's always wrong. 🤷♂


Demand for $NBIS full stack infrastructure is immense and $MSFT + $META proved it. Yeah this just means when they contract more, they'll increase ARR and maybe even beat their $7-9B ARR projection.

Summary: Long NBIS: surging demand from MSFT and META signals ARR will beat $7-9B projection as capacity expands.

@Dylanwith86 Yeah this just means when they contract more, they'll increase ARR and maybe even beat their $7-9B ARR projection. 2 months ago it was ~$5B with just $MSFT.

Demand for $NBIS full stack infrastructure is immense and $MSFT + $META proved it.

@aleabitoreddit Even with the dilution the numbers are insane. Another deal worth 3B that was only size limited since they are essentially sold out of current capacity.


Summary: Long SNAP: fundamentally undervalued at $14B if monetization of memories and Google Cloud opex optimization materialize within a year; 2027 timeline makes sense.

$SNAP is fundamentally undervalued at 14B marketcap IF AND ONLY IF they monetized memories and optimized Google Cloud OPex (which they will 1y from now).

It's just a waiting game until the market prices it in, which could be awhile. So 2027 makes sense.

I'll post my $FLY DD tomorrow morning.

@aleabitoreddit Got in $FLY.
Was thinking $7C Jan2027 for SNAP. Wdyt?


Summary: NBIS can break $150 by December; bullish near-term price target.

@Neomeldir Even by December $NBIS can easily break $150. It just depends on when the company wants to sell shares on the market through their ATM (if they decide to do so)

@aleabitoreddit Do you think short-term (like by Feb/Mar) NBIS can break $150 or will the short-term pressure due to dilution affect the price of the stock?


Summary: Long NBIS; advises cost averaging rather than waiting for a correction.

@jakub_cyferski It's always a good time, just cost average and don't all in $NBIS in a single day.

@aleabitoreddit Good time for $NBIS right now or wait for correct?


Summary: Bullish SEI on after-hours dip and FLNC at current levels.

@DigestingX $SEI is probably the best on the 6.7% drop after hours. I like $FLNC too.

$EOSE idk much about yet, I'm just trusting the DD of others.

@aleabitoreddit Still think they’re good buys at these levels or just holding for now?


I've initiated positions in $LPTH ($621M). Lightpath is incredible... So I personally went long on Lightpath as military contractors will rely on them in the future for advanced weapons.

Summary: Initiated long in LPTH; sole Western alternative to Chinese germanium glass for modern weapons/drones, expanding margins, $90M+ backlog, and growing defence contractor adoption.

I've initiated positions in $LPTH ($621M).

Lightpath is incredible.

Every modern thermal weapon (Missiles, Drones) requires Germanium glass, which China owns (70%)

LPTH is the only US alternative with: Black Diamond

Users?

- $ONDS
- L3Harris
- Lockheed
- Andruil (likely)
- $UMAC
- RTX/Raytheon or Northrop Grumman for the most recent $18.2M contract.

Ondas: Iron Drone Raider(counter-UAS interceptor drone) and Optimus uses LPTH for Thermal Camera Cores.

L3Harris SPEIR uses Lightpath for Infrared Camera Assemblies on Arleigh Burke-class Destroyers.

Lockheed Martin Stinger Missles and M-SHORAD uses Lightpath for Missile Seeker Optics.

Anduril likely uses Lightpath for The Ghost (Autonomous Drone) for Uncooled LWIR (Long Wave Infrared) Cameras.

Unusual Machines uses Lightpath for Attack Drones (Molded Thermal Lenses).

RTX or Northrop (one of them) uses Lightpath for Advanced Tactical Pods or Next-Gen Missile Seekers suing Infrared Camera Systems.

This literally is the only Western alternative required for modern weaponry and drones.

Lightpath now has an amazing balance sheet:

~$75–80 million in cash (with -$5M debt)
-FY 2025 $37.2 Million. FY 2026 est. ~$61.6 Million
- FY 2025 Gross 27.2%, FY 2026 35-40% by year-end.
- FY 2025 Backlog ~$40 Million. FY 2026 Backlog $90+ Million.

They are sold out. Expanding margins. And majority of the top US defence contractors now use Lightpath as a Western alternative to China's supply chain of Germanium glass.

Absolutely incredible company, I don't say this very often.

So I personally went long on Lightpath as military contractors will rely on them in the future for advanced weapons.


having raw capacity doesn't always translate to good profit margins like what $NBIS already has (71.2% gross from last ER, if I remember correctly) being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs

Summary: Long NBIS on full-stack efficiency and 71% gross margins; bearish on raw-capacity plays IREN, ORCL, CRWV as margin struggles show GPU buildouts don't translate to profits.

Yeah I’d agree with the breakdown. But think you’re focusing on the wrong thing (external competitive advantage).

Their full stack software + diversified customer base with startups, SMBs, helps their own opex, which is the moat in and of itself.

You mention miners like $IREN but if we look at $ORCL they were struggling with margins and buildout/pivot that didn’t translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc). Having other software layers also reduces margins and $CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently.

So having raw capacity doesn’t always translate to good profit margins like what $NBIS already has (71.2% gross from last ER, if I remember correctly) being full stack + operational efficiency + diversified smbs that miners that pivot won’t have.

$NBIS's white paper on the software efficiency of it's AI cloud. I want to acknowledge that this is great for small companies and startups. Medium-large companies will rent from Nebius for their uptime guarantees of 99.9%+ but Nebius software is not a factor for them.

Managed AI


miners like $IREN but if we look at $ORCL they were struggling with margins and buildout/pivot that didn't translate


$ORCL they were struggling with margins and buildout/pivot that didn't translate (gpu utilization after buildout, etc)


$CRWV found that out firsthand, which is why they spent billions on acquisitions recently


Summary: Screaming buy on META: optics-driven selloff, not fundamentals; $18.6B net profit, still wildly profitable despite AI capex fears, 700%+ q/q income growth expected.

$META seems like a screaming buy to me, as this looks like an optics issue rather than fundamentals.

Last quarter, they had a whopping $18.6B in net profit but reported $2.71B from BBB one time accounting. Everyone was fearful of FCF due AI capex but numbers wise they’re still wildly profitable.

Should work in reverse with optics when people see a 700%+ q/q income growth when they don’t do tax normalization.

$META

feels like the street doesn’t trust Zucks at all

they are going to have a great Q4, obviously undervalued at 18x fwd compared to other Mag 7s, just announced a new compute initiative (maybe new cloud biz) and acquired Manus which is bringing real agentic workflows to https://t.co/fl805VTfUE


Summary: Long FLY as 10x moonshot on reusable medium-lift success with Northrop co-development; also holds RKLB but sees better risk/reward in FLY at 4.4B MC vs RKLB's 32B+.

People have been asking for my $FLY thesis since my Reddit post, so here it is:

Firefly is a rocket company like $RKLB, and is developing a reusable medium-lift rocket.

The only one that exists is SpaceX.

They target 2026-2027, and if they succeed, the company would re-rate to a 30-70B market cap, 1000-2000% from here (4.4B MC)

More details:

The 30-70B marketcap estimate is priced off $RKLB multiples, and only on medium-lift working. (I'm ignoring other business segments and current $1B+ revenue backlog).

In a year with medium-lift: ~$0.9–1.3B revenue, with 30–40% gross margins at workable cadence (8–12 flights). Falcon-class pricing support this.

So now the only question is, can FLY make it work?

After Fly's individual company latest launch failure, the stock dropped 50% and the market is already pricing in the feature of failure. The bears are pointing to Alpha's failures for execution risk. HOWEVER, they're pricing the risk in completely wrong...

The question they should be asking is, whether both Northrop + Firefly can make this work?

This is a CO-DEVELOPMENT between Northrop, one of America's largest military contractors for Aerospace with some tiny $4B marketcap launch company.

Northrop literally had its own medium-lift rocket before but they had to sunset it. Northrop’s prior launcher, Antares 230 worked before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, then the supply chain was cut off.

However, Northrop faced an existential problem: it couldn’t build its own first stage anymore. So they went looking for a U.S. partner with ready-made propulsion and structures for the sake of time: Firefly.

-> Motivation: Firefly’s Miranda engines offered a plug-and-play replacement to immediately build a medium lift launcher.

And now you have a medium lift launcher in 2026-2027 that Firefly monetizes (because Northrop took a stake in the company), just need to make it re-usable, which is the hard part.

But Northrop doesn’t just “help.” It structurally lowers risk across every aspect across the board. And Northrop’s system + Firefly’s new-space engines hits a scarce, high-demand moat (U.S. medium-lift with reuse), already validated by TacRS and a $1B+ backlog + US golden dome defense system catalyst.

So, risk reward of buying Firefly on the company succeeding on Medium-Lift Launcher and developing a huge moat to be the next SpaceX, is decent.

(I also have $RKLB in my portfolio too, I just see the opportunity of succeeding in reusable Medium Lift to be higher than normal because it medium-lift already existed with Northrop).

Obviously Rocketlab has a higher probability of success achieving reusable medium lift, but that's already priced into its 32B+ marketcap, compared to a 4.4B Fly marketcap.

I just find $FLY to be an interesting 10x moonshot at this valuation in the chance it works in the next year or two. Also I just really like rockets.

I also had Grok calculate the odds since XAI is owned by Rocketman himself.
_

Output:

By end-2027, Rocket Lab has a 90%+ chance of achieving reusable medium-lift flights (likely by mid-2026), driven by their head start, proven execution, and in-house control.

Firefly/Northrop reaches 75–80% probability, bolstered by Northrop’s legacy but tempered by Firefly’s newer operational track record. The extra year narrows the gap—Firefly could match or exceed Neutron’s cadence by late 2027 if Antares 330 flies on time and Miranda engines scale.

In the event they both get it to work (big if), RKLB could re-rate to $60B marketcap, and $FLY could re-rate to 40B marketcap, just because of TAM of Space rapidly increasing from national security risks and corporate sector buildout, just might need to wait another year.

The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel

Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return.

🔹 Buckets

Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅

With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF

Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH

Miners pivoting to


But I'll put that into $NBIS. Capacity helps scale revenue, but it wouldn't matter as much if they can't achieve high margins that Nebius will produce

Summary: Exited HPC miners, rotating into NBIS on superior margin thesis; bearish on CRWV and HPC miner pivots as unable to achieve high margins.

No, I held almost every Neocloud up until this week. But ended up selling HPC miners Friday after consolidating more information that came out eg. $ORCL buildout failing, $NBIS new whitepaper 2 days ago, $CRWV recent acquisitions, more insights into margin calculations.

But I'll put that into $NBIS.

People are too bullish on HPC miner pivots when $ORCL had 14% for that segment and they just look at Coreweave.

Capacity helps scale revenue, but it wouldn't matter as much if they can't achieve high margins that Nebius will produce


ended up selling HPC miners Friday after consolidating more information that came out eg. $ORCL buildout failing, $NBIS new whitepaper 2 days ago, $CRWV recent acquisitions, more insights into margin calculations


Summary: Bullish IREN: market wrongly discounting capacity constraints that remain a real bottleneck for hyperscalers.

Market is valuing a forward $8B ARR company, 20-30% EBIT margin company with:

- 4 separate subsidaries from robotaxi companies to DBs all growing triple digits Y/Y.
(Two of which can be worth more than the current market cap in a 1-2 year bull case)

At $19B.

As for $IREN, markets are suddenly forgetting how much capacity was a bottleneck for hyperscalers.

Market is taking too much Tylenol.

@aleabitoreddit Is there an opportunity in the market or is the market right?


Summary: NBIS's software/orchestration moat matters far more than power cost advantages held by IREN and CIFR; miners face huge speculative risk building out full stack.

$NBIS has access to cheap power, but it might not be as cheap as $IREN or $CIFR. But just to give you a sense of why it matters a lot less:

Software utilization/orchestration is a moat and matters ~30–70 TIMES more than cheap power. (someone pls fact check the math)

A H100 burns ~0.84 kW. At $0.05 / kWh, that’s $0.04 / GPU-hour; even at $0.10 / kWh it’s $0.08 / GPU-hour.

With rental prices of ~$4 / GPU-hour, power is just 1–2 % of revenue. But going from 50% to 85% utilization changes revenue per GPU by +70%, swinging margins massively.

Then again if you have all the components like $CRWV (aside from their bad debt), then that's a different story, but it's a huge speculative gamble that all the miners can build that out.


it might not be as cheap as $IREN or $CIFR. But just to give you a sense of why it matters a lot less