markets are undervaluing $NBIS's core business with their existing NAV/assets. If things are on track with just their existing business, should be extremely positive

Summary: Bullish NBIS into ER: market undervaluing core business/NAV, down ~20% from highs; execution confirmation should be a positive catalyst.

So a lot of people still don't understand $NBIS forward revenue, so having Nebius quantify and confirm financial data like $WULF that FinX are speculating with their existing core business would already be enough of  momentum for next earnings. Since Nebius has already dropped ~20% from highs and markets are undervaluing $NBIS's core business with their existing NAV/assets.

I'd be surprised if they announced another large contract like $CIFR so it's not expected.

I'm more interested in execution, such as margins, etc.  after seeing their whitepaper and buildout/timeline for MSFT. If things are on track with just their existing business, should be extremely positive.

https://t.co/2x4vlVv6RU

@aleabitoreddit Thank you for sharing. What are you expecting for tomorrow’s $NBIS ER? Do you think we’ll have an $IREN situation where it just kinda stays neutral? I’ve been pretty disappointed with today’s price action given that earnings are around the corner.


Summary: Bullish on Neocloud sector: NBIS deeply undervalued at $85 vs $200+ PT targets, IREN on MSFT deal IRR, CIFR/WULF on hyperscaler colo deals; sector selloff seen as golden opportunity if margins scale.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Neoclouds are in the "Prove It" phase.

You have absurd 700%+ ARR growth rates to $7-9B from $NBIS and $3.4B+ figures from $IREN.

Many have multiple year revenue visibility and backstop from Mag7 Hyperscalers.

However, markets have said:

"This is not an infinite money glitch".

Where a stock goes up -> convertible note/dilution -> ARR increases -> repeat.

They all have funding now, $NBIS sitting on a $4.8B+ cash stack, $IREN sitting on billions from $MSFT prepayment/notes to finish their buildout and turn that into FCF.

Despite tailwinds from the initial SPEED act passing, OpenAI fundraising (for less counterpaty risk), and rate cuts, the recent downtrend seems to combine EoY tax harvesting with short selling, active ATMs, and mainly:

Waiting for proof that these companies can deliver margins at scale from levered IRR projections on $MSFT's IREN deal to Nebius. It seems to comes down to execution and waiting for their next earnings report.

Many retail investors seem to have capitulated during this time but institutional ownership has only gone up (30's from $NBIS to 50's+ now)

But here's where the asymmetry comes in:

If Nebius management scales to 20-30% EBIT margins with their $7-9B ARR target, this seems incredibly, incredibly off at $85 when conservative analysts are throwing out $200+ PTs. Especially considering possible Clickhouse ramp/IPO and Avride robotaxi scaling with Uber.

I'm especially bullish thematically too with $IREN levered IRR projections on the Microsoft deal and Neocloud colo players from $CIFR / $WULF $GOOGL deals.

TLDR: If Neoclouds can execute with their projected margins, scale, and create their own moats during this 2-3 year window, then the whole sector selloff seems like a golden opportunity.


I'm especially bullish thematically too with $IREN levered IRR projections on the Microsoft deal


Neocloud colo players from $CIFR / $WULF $GOOGL deals


Summary: Bearish OKLO: hilariously overvalued no-revenue meme with no fundamental justification.

@iamsattam You're right thanks for the reminder on $NKLR.

Lesson learned: I've been saying nuclear like $OKLO is hilariously overvalued, no clue why I decided to buy it just as a potential no-revenue meme. https://t.co/vOKJG56mA5


Summary: Bullish VIRT: sub-7x P/E with $300M+ buybacks at $5B market cap; rate-cut headwind manageable while awaiting vol.

Yep that's correct they get a lot off interest income on EPS. Think interest income was 14% reduction and interest expense was 12% reduction so it was 2.8% or so shaved off income if I'm doing the math correctly.

Even with cuts it's trading at sub 7 p/e with 300m+ in buybacks at 5b marketcap and you can just wait until volatility returns.

@aleabitoreddit On the rate cut point, wouldn't that also diminish their interest returns from liquid assets, and if so, does that offset some of the benefit from reduced loan payments?

It looks great here! I really like the point about VIX increasing and VIRT going BRRR


my thesis was around 'neoclouds' are the next big wave for 2025, 2026

Summary: Bullish on neocloud AI-compute plays NBIS, CRWV, CIFR as the next big wave through 2025-2026.

Good question, don't be ashamed to ask! So Neoclouds is the next generation of cloud infra focused on AI.

You can think of traditional cloud companies like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud. They kind of do everything like website hosting, running programming instances, etc.

Neoclouds examples include $NBIS, $CRWV and $CIFR. They're like specialty stores, mainly focused on AI compute.

And because AI is getting so high demand with ChatGPT, @grok, and others, my thesis was around "neoclouds" are the next big wave for 2025, 2026.

@aleabitoreddit I am so ignorant...is neoclouds a stock? I can't find a ticker anywhere for this stock...


$NBIS is very undervalued at these levels. It's just a high beta stock affected by broader macro. If fundamentals are in tact, then it's a buying opportunity

Summary: NBIS is undervalued at current levels; macro-driven weakness in a fundamentally intact stock is a buying opportunity.

@hereforgoodish $NBIS is very undervalued at these levels. It’s just a high beta stock affected by broader macro.

If fundamentals are in tact, then it’s a buying opportunity

https://t.co/RTbdrjXqtx

@aleabitoreddit think it's wise to add more $nbis before earnings at these levels? i want to keep loading the boat but could see it dropping into the 90s again after earnings


These types of sell-offs are completely not warranted for companies like $NBIS with $7-9B forward ARR and extremely strong balance sheets. Use this as a buying opportunity for good names

Summary: Buy dip in NBIS, CIFR, WULF on Mag7 contract visibility and strong balance sheets; avoid/underweight CRWV and speculative neoclouds exposed to OpenAI/credit tightening.

We're seeing a live crash in AI + DC stocks right now with $IREN down 37.88% this week to $NBIS down 35.27% this month.

Panic stems from Credit Tightening, High Interest Debt, OpenAI contagion, Macro, and most importantly: Irrational Fear.

Here's what happening real time:

1. Credit Tightening - Companies like $APLD failed to sell bonds (under subscribed) and ended up issuing $2.35B in high yield debt offerings - Bloomberg Nov 14th. The bonds were sold at 97 cents on the dollar, a significant discount, with a yield of approximately 10%.

The bond deal's risk is primarily tied to Applied Digital's  reliance on $CRWV, which accounts for a substantial portion of its contracted earnings. More institutional cation (eg. Burry short report on GPU depreciation) around the buildout makes it harder for DC's to raise funds.

Tightening funding conditions affect the entire ecosystem that issue debt to fund their own buildout.

2. High Interest Debt - Due to credit tightening, bad debt, which $CRWV has to fund expansion, causes $1B+ in losses a year. This cuts into margins and FCF.

Likewise, $APLD and others that raise funds with bad yields face the same future issues and we're seeing a selloff in related companies for risk-management.

3. $1T+ in OpenAI promised funding without balances -

Over $1 trillion+ in capex was promised by OpenAI going to $22.4B+ $CRWV and $300B+ to $ORCL, which they are building capacity for.  The market is now skeptical of these promises from OpenAI due to not having the balances on hand and taking a risk-off approach.

And now we're seeing contagion on that buildout from companies like Coreweave spread down to $CORZ and $APLD during this buildout that might rely on $CRWV for future revenue.

4. $CRWV is a sector leaders of AI infrastructure (and partially $ORCL). When the sector leader sell-off, usually others follow suit.

5. Rate Cut odds in December Fall:

On top of the high interest debt, we're seeing rate cut odds in December drop to a coinflip ~53%. Having higher interest rates make it trouble for interest-debt burdened companies like $CRWV to refinance for stronger FCF.

_

THE NUANCE and Repositioning:

We're seeing a broad sell-off across the board. However,  Capex and contracts from Mag7 ( $META, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT ) are confirmed with their extreme profitability.

There's an easy way to safely reposition to avoid issues with future revenue growth + debt cycles.

1. Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7:

-  $NBIS - $19B $MSFT deal, $3B from $META, broad enterprise support
- $CIFR - $5.5B Colo deal with $AMZN, $3B deal with $GOOGL
- $WULF - $3.7B+ deals with $GOOGL and more.
- $IREN - $9B deal with $MSFT

We will likely see more capacity speculative companies like $SLNH, $CLSK, and others fall off and consolidation into Neoclouds with visible enterprise contract (low downside risk of future revenue).

2. Position into Neoclouds with no/extremely low interest debt and high balance sheets:

Companies like $NBIS are isolated from current credit market volatility as they have $4.79 billion in cash and cash equivalents from convertible notes.  Or companies like $CIFR with $1.2B in cash.

3. Avoid companies with direct contracts with OpenAI that's not Mag7.
_

Neoclouds are the backbone of Mag7 AI compute. This thesis has not changed and we'll likely see some scale to $100B+ companies in the future as the next AWS.

However, we're seeing a widespread, indiscriminate sell-off caused by $CRWV, $ORCL, and OpenAI + credit tightening (partially due to incorrect institutional short reports from Burry on GPU depreciation).

These types of sell-offs are completely not warranted for companies like $NBIS with $7-9B forward ARR and extremely strong balance sheets. But for other speculative companies, it's a well-needed correction.

A good quote is “retail is last to sell, last to buy back”.

If you think you can sell and come back two weeks later, missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost you most of the recovery gains.

Institutions are probably buying the better names right now eg. $NBIS through dark pools/block trades now after these types of washouts and margin liquidations. We've also seen institutional ownership go from 38%-> 43-46% despite share prices dropping.

Use this as a buying opportunity for good names, and hold through these periods of volatility.

Institutional Flow assessment for 13F Neocloud filings:

· Nebius ( $NBIS ): 🟢 Strongly Positive (7/10)
· WULF ( $WULF ): 🟢 Highly Positive (8.5/10)
· IREN ( $IREN ): 🔴 Very Negative (3/10)
· CIFR ( $CIFR ): 🟢 Highly Positive (8.0/10)
· Coreweave ( $CRWV ):  🟡 Neutral https://t.co/ufRgkCO7qp


Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7: $CIFR - $5.5B Colo deal with $AMZN, $3B deal with $GOOGL


Position into Neoclouds with contract visibility with Mag7: $WULF - $3.7B+ deals with $GOOGL


Avoid companies with direct contracts with OpenAI that's not Mag7. $CRWV has to fund expansion, causes $1B+ in losses a year. This cuts into margins and FCF


other speculative companies, it's a well-needed correction


Summary: Nuclear reactor stocks continuing to run on US Army base-power news; bullish NKLR, OKLO, SMR.

and... the speculative nuclear reactor stock run continues $NKLR $OKLO $SMR

WSJ: "US Army to Power Bases with Nuclear Reactors" https://t.co/COEteFJUeE

The Great Soybean/Seed Oil Crash, personal thoughts and explanations:

Strong Buy
$ALAB
$CRDO
$NBIS
$WLAC
$LTC
$TSM
$BTC
(+ same as tax harvest stocks last time)
$AMZN
$SMCI
_

Buy
$AMD
$FLNC
$SEI
$BZAI
$NKLR
$IREN
$WULF
$CIFR
$CRWV
$BITF
$WYFI
$SLNH
$BITF
$RBRK
$GLXY
$GRAB
$SEA


Summary: RKLB is a buy at $40 support (sell at $54); AMZN is a buy now with leaps below $210.

How I do swing trading with charts, Part 2:  Short term (few week) + Short-Medium Term (few month).

I'll do long term ones in another post.

Ex 1: $RKLB. Just going off feels on this, seems like a great buy at $40 support, and $54 sell. Usually lower half (dotted line) like $44 is a good buy too cause risk-reward is good but u wont get the actual bottom.

You can do it with stuff like Rocketlab since long term if you hold enough, even if it dips past $40 it will likely recover since it's a strong buy fundamentally albeit a tiny overvalued now.

Example 2: $AMZN - Great buy with shares now. If it ever dips past $210, you can do leaps. Lower than $200 for example, shorter dated calls.

_

Knowing fundamentals, macro, and whether catalysts are material or not is really also important. These lines mean nothing if forward revenue falls a lot or industry margins compresses.

Lot of time they drop on more irrational things eg. GOOGL with Apple search, or maybe overall market SPY dipping but in those cases they usually rise up again if there's no difference + company keeps growing.   Again different for everyone, you need to analyze more than the charts when timing bottoms. This is just part of what I do.

I make fun of charting but sometimes it's genuinely helpful for pattern based reasoning (not TA).

History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes for companies in similar sectors.

With things material to fundamentals:

Eg. $NBIS (64->100->86) vs. $CIFR (+32% into -18% https://t.co/0HEheBEq6B


Great buy with shares now. If it ever dips past $210, you can do leaps. Lower than $200 for example, shorter dated calls.


Summary: Bullish on Neoclouds incl. IREN; highest conviction on NBIS for best risk/reward via its software stack.

I'm bullish on Neoclouds, including $IREN. If you look at my post history, I've had positions in everything including $WULF, $CIFR, etc.

The only point I've made was $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return (lowest risk, highest upside) because of its software stack.

https://t.co/TnUqmvvFdd

@aleabitoreddit @Agrippa_Inv I disagree with your thesis — relying on one company alone isn’t enough to scale AI. The race has just begun, and there will be multiple winners. Just because someone started early doesn’t guarantee they’ll finish first.


$NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return (lowest risk, highest upside) because of its software stack


Summary: Venezuela regime-change trade: long ASHM/GHM/MVZ.B/ENR/AMTB on restructuring/reconstruction; short CVX on asset risk; long SU as substitute during institutional collapse.

So I'll answer your question on timeline + beneficiaries post-regime change.

If Defense Minster accepts safe passage/amnesty, then it's a buy signal for stuff like $ASHM, $GHM, or $MVZ.B and companies post regime change.

$ASHM - largest holder of Venezulean debt. Bonds likely 100%+ higher re-rated if theres restructuring.

$GHM / $MVZ.B - Vacuum Ejectors for extra-heavy crude in Venezulea | Largest banks in Venezuela

There's a lot more companies like $ENR and $AMTB that would profit off the reconstruction too.

But right now there's now a political transition vacuum after the capture of Maduro. The defense minster Vladimir Lopez and FANB are still hostile with mobilized troops to defend. So, unlike 1989 Panama (~6w), Venezuela is a more "Iraq-style" risk, which could last:

~3-18 months.

Otherwise, there's asset risks from Chevron $CVX, while companies like $SU are good substitute during the institutional collapse (alongside the companies mentioned above to maintain the blockade + profit off supply disruption).

---

@poconokid18 Scratch that, looks like regime change will go smoother than expected from Trump's comments. Made a new post about beneficiaries here:

https://t.co/wRNq8ntQSt


There's a lot more companies like $ENR and $AMTB that would profit off the reconstruction too


companies like $SU are good substitute during the institutional collapse


Summary: Long AXTI: near-monopoly on InP feedstock and substrates after export controls sideline Sumitomo; TAM could inflate to $10B+ as the sole supplier for AI photonics buildout.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Just to give some perspective: There's two different bottlenecks. $AXTI sits in the middle of two.

InP Feedstock - Duopoly (Vital, $AXTI with China controlling ~78%-80% of supply). Companies like $DOWA produce extremely low amounts relatively.

InP Substrates - Monopoly ( $AXTI ). Formerly it was a duopoly ( $AXTI, Sumitomo Electric) with 60-70% of InP substrate production. With misc Japanese companies like JX contributing much tinier amounts. However this changed with export controls 2 days ago restricting feedstock and critical material supply to Sumitomo and Japanese companies that produce InP substrates.

They have inventory, but with the export controls continuing, they will lack the materials to produce substrates at scale and $AXTI becomes the monopoly in 3-6 months, hence the framing.

This is not a quantity game. This is game theory on price squeezes based on limited materials. $AXTI owns the mineral mines all the way to refining -> substrate production and the supply chain + cost structure.

This translates into margins. You were looking at few hundred million TAM that could now inflate to $10B+ just due to pure necessary required for $GOOGL TPUs, $MSFT maia, $NVDA, $META, and so no AI buildout with photonics.

This $1B company controls two different bottleneck for the AI buildout. I'm buying into the bottleneck like what happened at the start with HBM with $MU and $SNDK, I'm not trying to convince you to as well, just sharing my thesis.

@aleabitoreddit I’m not fully convinced that a shortage automatically equals big profits. People often jump straight to pricing power, but a shortage is just a condition, not a guaranteed earnings trend. InP is clearly strategic i get that. But they are also not a monopoly. Also the company


Summary: Long HIMS: 42% short interest on profitable fast-growing $11B company sets up historic short squeeze; risk/reward compelling.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

I don’t know how to reiterate this enough for $HIMS

42% short interest on a 11B, profitable, and fast growing company… has the potential to make history on a short squeeze like $OPEN or $GME.

The risk reward is worth it. https://t.co/xoCKXMzdqu

🚨 BREAKING: BTIG REITERATES $HIMS BUY RATING, $85 PRICE TARGET

THE HIGHEST PRICE TARGET ON WALL STREET


Summary: Prefers AXTI over Sumitomo Electric: AXTI controls InP supply chain; Sumitomo exposed to price hikes and lacks direct exposure.

Sumitomo is subject to hikes in InP prices though if $GOOGL goes direct to $DOWA or others for feedstock.

$AXTI owns the whole supply chain, and a huge portion of laser grade inp. But downside is obviously anuke from China exports.

Sumitomo Electric is huge though so you’re not exactly getting the most direct exposure.

Even though I'm not a fan of AXT, it will go up even more (already up 500% this year)
But I do like Sumitomo Electric


Sumitomo is subject to hikes in InP prices though if $GOOGL goes direct to $DOWA or others for feedstock

Sumitomo Electric Industries listed on TSE as 5802.T


My thesis is that it's just a waiting game and the highest return comes from riding the wave up from the beginning

Summary: Long NBIS; early-stage buildout will drive net income ramp in ~1 year, highest returns come from holding from the start.

Currently $NBIS is using a lot of capex to do buildout for its hyperscalers on ai dcs and subsidiaries (eg. Avride) to compete with Waymo.

For forward earnings, management quoted 20-30% EBIT which the percentage of revenue that becomes operating profit after depreciation (but before tax). Current ebitda was 19% or so if I recall correctly.

We’ll see net income ramp up immensely in a year or so, this is just early stage (building/scaling year). Otherwise if it were doing $10B ARR today with those margins, we’d be trading at a $100b marketcap.

My thesis is that it’s just a waiting game and the highest return comes from riding the wave up from the beginning.

@aleabitoreddit hi @aleabitoreddit, I appreciate all your research on $NBIS. I am invested as well, I am nowhere near as smart as all you analysts on X and elsewhere. My humble question is what about the earnings? Although the revenues are high, the net income seem low. How does that work then.


Summary: Long LITE (Google TPU leverage), COHR (photonics duopoly), and AAOI (underappreciated MSFT/AMZN hyperscaler ASIC play).

I only have $LITE and $AAOI lol. But how I'd frame it is $LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics.

With $LITE extra leveraged on Google TPU growth.

Then there's $AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs.

No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this year despite being a photonics player) because there's no investor hype about Amazon Trainium or Microsoft Maia (yet).

@aleabitoreddit All three of your picks are on point - $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI


$LITE and $COHR are basically duopolies in photonics.


$AAOI, extreme alpha + leverage call on $MSFT + $AMZN hyperscaler ASICs. No action yet, no major runup (even down 12% this year despite being a photonics player) because there's no investor hype about Amazon Trainium or Microsoft Maia (yet).


Summary: Short CRCL if it ever trades above half of Coinbase's market cap, given interest income is split 50-50.

We agree about irrational markets - but your reading comprehension is about as good as your TA.

The point you missed: TA is useless when it ignores float + fundamentals. If 1% of float drives MC and 99% unlocks later like $BULL, charts don’t matter.

The only valuation point I made was that $CRCL is a great short if it ever trades above 1/2 of $COIN, since interest income is split 50-50. I’m bullish on USDC but Circle at $200 today would be worth more than half of Coinbase.

Anyway, drawing a TA while ignoring 10B+ in unlocks & revenue sharing and justifying it by saying "markets  aren’t rational” is exactly how to lose your followers money.

@aleabitoreddit The markets are not a rationale place kid. $TSLA is worth a trillion dollars. Nvidia is worth more than the entire country of canada. Dogecoin was worth $88B a one point. Remember $GME? $RIVN sold ~1,000 trucks and was valued higher than $F and $GM combined at IPO. Uber loses


Summary: NBIS highest asymmetrical upside of neocloud peers; IREN executing full-stack transition; CRWV stuck in debt trap with shaky backstop.

Hi great question. So there was an article by Mckinsey on this topic (which I think is terribly written since they use $CRWV as the main anchor).

But some points holds true, and gives warnings to $IREN and others. Their claims:

- current bare-metal rental business model is weak and fragile
- avoids overreliance on a few giant customers
- carve defensible niches (sovereign compute, specialized workloads)
- consolidate through acquisitions or be a hyperscaler

Are definitely correct, but fail to capture some nuances.

So for $NBIS:

- Extremely diversified (so this is more as a powerful moat for utilization, which is huge for margin calculations)
- Full-stack (defensible niche)
- consolidate through acquisitions (it's aiming to become a hyperscaler, has 4 subsidiary companies growing alongside it)

That's kind of why I've said it has the highest asymmetrical upside of the bunch.

For $IREN:

- current bare-metal rental business is a moat as of today. The article is correct in stating long term it's fragile. That's why $IREN is moving up the full-stack ladder doing GPU iaas with $MSFT, and will likely try and build software layers on top (though it's hard)
- We will see what comes out of this, it's high execution.

For $CRWV

- idk how they're going to get out of the debt trap tbh
- they're using $NVDA to backstop it, but it's shaky at best (eg. openai with $1t+ in capex trying to get gov + mag7 to backstop funding)

Neoclouds are a race against time, I agree with the article (which is why I said 2 year high conviction hold, not 5 years + ).

They have this brilliant window of opportunity of weakness from mag7 -> funnel revenue down -> build long term differentiation and moats.

I don't know what will happen, but we'll see

@aleabitoreddit If both NBIS and IREN converge into fully-owned, fully-stacked infra + software, what becomes the real differentiator? Power? Capital? Customer mix?


$IREN is moving up the full-stack ladder doing GPU iaas with $MSFT, and will likely try and build software layers on top


idk how they're going to get out of the debt trap tbh


Summary: Long NBIS on ~$5B ARR forward revenue from MSFT contracted capacity + AI HPC; dip is accumulation opportunity.

Like the other comments said $NBIS is just high beta and is moving with the markets.

It's backed by extreme forward revenue growth ~$5B ARR if it doesn't grow and we fast forward a year with the $MSFT contracted capacity and existing AI HPC revenue.

Use this time to accumulate.

@aleabitoreddit Why do you think $NBIS has been dying over the last few days?


this is levered to the AI buildout that hit the copper wall and is shifting to photonics with newer interconnects and ASIC architectures. InP substrates is a critical material required for the AI buildout with photonics

Summary: Long AXTI as a critical InP substrate supplier levered to AI photonics buildout as hyperscalers shift from copper to photonic interconnects.

Sure, I’m not here to convince you I’m just posting my own thesis about $AXTI.

The nuance I’ll point out is that this is levered to the AI buildout that hit the copper wall and is shifting to photonics with newer interconnects and ASIC architectures.

Only later on in 2025 did hyperscalers really start securing EML capacity.

InP substrates is a critical material required for the AI buildout with photonics, not previous copper generations or former architectures.

@aleabitoreddit I think it shows that if this company were as invaluable to the process as you claim, they’d have significantly better revenues given we’ve been seeing semi production absolutely ramping for years now. Pass for me


Summary: Strongly prefers NBIS, would buy $300k more; also sees CIFR drop as overreaction and a buy despite near-term dilution pressure.

As promised to a follower, looked into $CIFR more. Good buy on the 17.54% drop. It's  ikely an overreaction due to the fact they had 1,414 BTC (-6.32%) on the balance sheet on top of macro.

$3B deal was over 10y, compared to $NBIS $17B for 5 years. 1B+ dilution news just now (1h ago), 0% interest (unlike $CRWV 9%) is really positive. It's at 38%+ above current market rate at $16.06.

This is how you do dilution.

Very low debt on balance sheet too, there's probably going to be more dilution too but should rise afterward. There's likely going to be short term pressure approaching that number but risk-return shares only is good.

As of now I'd prefer NBIS > CIFR though and would probably just buy another $300k worth of NBIS at these levels, I'll probably buy a tiny bit but still a solid company.

So daily thoughts on Sept 25th + market drop if you like my insights:

1. 3x rate cut went from 65% to 56% from data today. This is a lot more material, since people are front-running rate cuts now.

Either way, any rate cut usually lead to large inflows so it's generally


Good buy on the 17.54% drop. It's likely an overreaction


Summary: Bullish TGT with plans to buy March calls, targeting recovery to $100.

@iamsattam I did the same thing with $UNH buying $225k+ on it, then it went from $320 to $355 the next two days.

I'd hope for recovery to $100, so I'd probably buy a lot more March calls next month. UNH IV was too high at the time, but TGT is low enough.

https://t.co/v66nS92o4m

@aleabitoreddit If I may, what's your strike price on TGT/when? And will TGT dividends raise the stock sufficiently for it?


Summary: Bullish on AI infra operators: revenue scales past depreciation via utilization; IREN and NBIS seen as better positioned than CRWV (no massive interest debt).

"Revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is wrong,  you're not stating unit pricing (which degrades) vs. operating leverage (which scales) correctly.

In the "front loading" phase, you have the assets (depreciation is active) but not the full rev yet. As you turn on clsuters for the $MSFT/ $META contract and others, utilization increases and margins expand (variable).

So "revenue doesn't scale past depreciation" is false because revenue absolutely scales past depreciation due to utilization. (depreciation is fixed while revenue is variable)

Just look at ~74% or so cash margins from $CRWV that cover the depreciation. (ignoring $CRWV's massive interest debt which both $IREN and $NBIS dont have).

---

Also - "Depreciation only kicks in once the underlying assets (GPUs) are in use." - this is nuanced and leans false.

I'm not sure if this is is different for $IREN in specific, but just in general depreciation starts when the asset is available for use, not in use implying your 100% utilization (thresholds), not for cusotmer worklods, or assets actually being in use.

(eg. if we look at $ORCL's report it accounted for utilization lag).


$RKLB ($16 | $28) ... I developed my conviction around it

Summary: High-conviction longs in RKLB, TSM, BTC, HOOD, NBIS, ALAB with multi-year theses; low-conviction long AMD on OpenAI revenue tailwind.

This is the first time I'm posting my high conviction list.

These are my 6 highest conviction longs and 1 new 1000% moonshot🚀

Sorted by first bought and ~when/why I developed conviction.

5 Years:

$RKLB ($16 | $28)

$TSM ($120 | $245)

$HOOD ($11.27 | $18)

$BTC ($3k | $57k)

2 Years:

$NBIS ($28 | $99)

$ALAB ($55 | $95)

1000% Moonshot (don't have high conviction like the others, but I included this I currently believe this has the best chance to 10x)

$WLAC ($13 | $13)

Here's what changed:

1. $RKLB -> I knew Space was rapidly growing since Trump announced Space force. I wanted to invest in SpaceX at the time but there was no alternative.

So I bought $RKLB when it started getting popular on Reddit. They had a high success rate with small-lift, but aside from that there wasn't anything special.

Around the $28 mark a few months later, they started developing a medium-lift payload, SpaceX raised a large round at $350B, and I started seeing the potential for RocketLab to grow in that marketcap whether it's 5 years or 10 years (when they were developing Neutron) and I developed my conviction around it.

2. $TSM -> Always knew that TSMC was fundamental to semiconductors, but didn't build large positions because of Taiwan geopolitical risk.  But around ~$245, America began the biggest build-out of AI infrastructure critical to national security with $NVDA and others hitting all time highs.

In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+.

3. $BTC -> I always liked Bitcoin, my friends introduced it to me back in college. I used it to pay for digital goods and stuff because Paypal at the time didn't have anonymous payments, and I didn't like sharing my identity to merchants.

I've always liked Bitcoin as a store of value/payment, but when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold,  it changed to high conviction.

I have a whole really long thesis about why US Gov has a strategic interest in Bitcoin + Stablecoins but I'll post it another day.

4. $HOOD -> Financial infrastructure is broken. Everyone in the industry knows it.

I liked Robinhood because all the retail users I know use it. And as someone who runs a fintech company, the speed at which they developed products (even compared to Startups), is astonishing.

From credit card products, to banking, to investing, they've actually made everything better and then just ships products to their already-large userbase.

Of course, there's an upper-cap in how large fintechs grow compared to semi/mega-cap, etc, but it could be a $600B+ company in the future if their banking products succeed and they continue with innovation.

_

1. $NBIS - I'm guilty of swing trading it without looking at fundamentals near the beginning.  Everything changed, when Mag7 started signing deals with all the Neoclouds, and Microsoft signing a 17B-19B deal with Nebius completely gave it a new-rerating.  I started looking into fundamentals, the assets they own, and I was blown away at their growth rate.

I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years.

2. $ALAB - They're used by so many Mag7 companies for the Stargate + AI data center buildout. Of course, their revenue numbers are small compared to their current MC but their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y, which is amazing.   Who knows how high they'll grow.

_

 1. $WLAC - Now for the fun one, if I had to have strong conviction any small cap/penny stock, it would be this. Boost already works with Fluidstack (which built $GOOGL contracts with $CIFR and $WULF already, and boosted their valuations to 4-7B).

And at a $600m IPO now, this could easily grow to 's marketcap. (already made a small thesis post earlier about speculative fundamentals). Hence why I believe this is the most likely 1000% out of anything.

_

I mention other things like $FLY as a potential 1000% too or $AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue but it's slightly different compared to having high conviction in terms of just believing in the company/asset.

The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel

Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return.

🔹 Buckets

Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅

With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF

Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH

Miners pivoting to


$TSM ($120 | $245) ... In the center of it all, there's $TSM. I believe if it's an America company, it would be valued at $3T+


$BTC ($3k | $57k) ... when the US government + Fed finally supported Bitcoin as a alternative to Gold, it changed to high conviction


$HOOD ($11.27 | $18) ... it could be a $600B+ company in the future


$NBIS ($28 | $99) ... I believe it could be easily be $400 (100B+ marketcap) in 1-2 years


$ALAB ($55 | $95) ... their Margins are like NVDA and they're growing at 100%+ Y/Y


$AMD as a great buy due to OpenAI 100B+ forward revenue


They're both good buys around here, $ALAB especially

Summary: Both tickers are good buys at current levels, with ALAB especially favored after the drop.

@moderndayvenom @dubiousnoob They’re both good buys around here, $ALAB especially. I don’t remember there being any material changes that caused the drop other than an analyst price target change

@aleabitoreddit @dubiousnoob But both of these are on your extremely buy signals and now that its dropped so much, im thinking of building out a massive position right now? @aleabitoreddit


Summary: Disclosed live long positions in CIFR, NBIS, IREN miners plus AMZN DCA, RKLB swing, CRDO rebound, BTC long-term, and ETOR undervalued thesis.

Apart from ORCL, $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR today these were some fun (short term) portfolio adds/trades and entries if you were curious + tiny bit of my reasoning:

GEMI ~$23.9 - fun short term swing trade +- ~5% all the time. Overvalued though MC wise.

AMZN ~$219.78 - DCA for 4 month timeframe.

Figma ~$52.65 - was down like 4-5%, just expected it to recover. Profit margins are like 90% or something stupid off 1B revenue. Fun short term trade

RKLB ~ $46.29 - fun swing trade between $43 -> 53.

CRDO ~ $142.21 - Just thought it might rebound in Oct, DCA

BTC ~ $109.5k - don't really care about +-5k too much, this is for long term positions.

KLAR ~ $39.95 - fun swing trade

ETOR ~ $40.95 - incredibly undervalued lol. I might end up with $1M of this thing and it will just stay the same price.

And of course sold weekly covered calls on ORCL, CIFR, NBIS, IREN, etc... for way out of money strikes.

Eh I normally don't do calls but risk/reward looks good to me on miners

Added $CIFR $30k worth of Jan calls $11 strike on the 5% drop to $11.

Added $NBIS $100k worth of calls, this was just one of the strikes on the 4.6% drop to $103.

Added $IREN shares $40.13 on the 13% drop. https://t.co/OP9EYjg34h


Added $IREN shares $40.13 on the 13% drop


AMZN ~$219.78 - DCA for 4 month timeframe


RKLB ~ $46.29 - fun swing trade between $43 -> 53


CRDO ~ $142.21 - Just thought it might rebound in Oct, DCA


BTC ~ $109.5k - don't really care about +-5k too much, this is for long term positions


ETOR ~ $40.95 - incredibly undervalued lol


Summary: META likely recovers in 1-2 weeks; dip is a one-time tax item, capex concern is just narrative.

@soulbiri1 Yeah great buy, stellar earnings, looks off due to one-time tax.

Don’t like capex spend but it’s just narrative at this point since people are cheering on other mag7 capex spend.

$META will probably recover in a week or two

@aleabitoreddit Sold at $750 before earnings, now buying back in at a discount. I got totally lucky there 😎


Summary: Picks TGT, UNH, and LULU as value plays right now.

@taleino93 @SimionAdvisory I do value investing too lol, not just breakouts or swing trading!

If I had to pick another three right now, $TGT, $UNH, and $LULU look decent.

@aleabitoreddit @SimionAdvisory Just wanted to shoutout @aleabitoreddit for their $UPWK play back in July. Great fundamentals for a great value at $13ish. I'm long $UPWK and expect their partnership with Lifted to pay off in the long run. Based on their next ER, we could easily see $25 EOY.


I still maintain $NBIS $400 bull case 1Y PT but it's good to cost average

Summary: Maintains $400 1Y PT on NBIS with highest asymmetry among Neoclouds; MSFT/GOOGL deals broadly bullish for IREN and Neocloud peers.

I still maintain $NBIS $400 bull case 1Y PT but it’s good to cost average.

$IREN just got a $9B deal from $MSFT today and $GOOGL just announced financing so it’s generally bullish for all Neoclouds.

Several miners got de-risked a lot today from the deal, but I’d still say Nebius has highest asymmetry.

@aleabitoreddit should i buy NBIS at 131? It shot up 5% last friday


$IREN just got a $9B deal from $MSFT today and $GOOGL just announced financing so it's generally bullish for all Neoclouds


Summary: Strong buy AMD on $100B+ forward revenue rerate; long FLY, WLAC, MU on launch/neocloud/memory themes; trim ORCL on GPU buildout struggles vs neoclouds like NBIS.

Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton.

Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations:

$AMD - +10% (rerate)
$FLY - +3% (new)
$WLAC - +1% (new)
$MU - +1% (new)
$FLNC - .5% (new)
$SEI - .5% (new)
$DFLI - - .25% (new)

_

Trim (Tax harvesting)

$ORCL
$LULU
$META
$UPWK
$ETOR
$SNAP
Misc small caps

_

Here's an explanation

$AMD - Just got $100B+ in forward revenue lol, they almost doubled their quarterly revenue overnight and hasn't even been priced in yet. Extremely strong buy

$FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good.

$WLAC - Neocloud IPO at $600m valuation (low) for something doing 75%+ EBITDA gross margin + 250% rev from last year + likely backstopped by Mag7

$MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI

$FLNC + $SEI - Energy Play (high risk high reward)

$DLFI - Battery Play (high risk high reward)

Trim

$ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds.

$LULU, $META, $UPWK, $ETOR, $SNAP. - Hasn't gone up much, we're playing as aggressive as possible with winners and will buy back once tax harvesting is done, eg. swap for $AMD, and higher return triple rate cut returns.

Will buy back near EOY once tax harvesting is done.

I've been getting a lot of stock weighting questions. A portfolio I'd build would be:

30% $NBIS
6% AMZN
5.5% TSM
5% BTC
5% LULU
4% UNH
4% $RKLB
4% LTC
3% ORCL
3% TGT
3% GRAB
2% $IREN
2% META
2% HOOD
2% HIMS
2% AMD
2% NVO
1.5% CRDO
1% BITF
1% ASTS
1% SG
1% UPWK
1% MP
1% FOUR
1%


$FLY - $4.4B valuation doing small-medium lift launches like $RKLB. Reminds me of RocketLab when they first started, risk-reward is good.


$MU - Memory in demand given the amount of infra required by Stargate + OpenAI


$ORCL - Having trouble with GPU buildout, just goes to show the moat between hyperscalers and Neoclouds like $NBIS. Higher upside just buying Neoclouds.


Summary: Still holding NBIS and Neocloud names including CIFR through volatility, confident fundamentals justify the positions despite margin-driven selloff.

Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket.

And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too. Similar thing as you mentioned with $NBIS, approaching pre $MSFT deal. We're seeing a complete detachment from fundamentals across the board due the market crash + panic selling.

Right now, we're likely seeing margin cascading liquidations + mechanical flows downward with short term option expiration on Neoclouds. I'm not using any margin but there's probably margin liquidations across the board given record high usage on brokerages like $IBKR.

But missing one or two huge rebound days after a selloff can cost the biggest recovery gains, which is why it’s better to hold through periods of volatility. I'm still holding $NBIS and others since im confident in their fundamentals.

@aleabitoreddit Neoclouds still suffering pre-market, it seems gap down to pre-MSFT deal is inevitable at this rate. Are you still holding?


Yeah premarket on Neoclouds like $CIFR is just disgusting to look at and it's pre $GOOGL deal price with the 10%+ drop premarket. And that's pretending $AMZN colo deal never happened too


Summary: Added NBIS shares on the dip to $126; ongoing long position.

@donniedarklano I just added more shares. 2% drop isn't the most, so added shares on the drop to $126.

I added calls when it dropped 6% or so back in the low $100's

@aleabitoreddit are you looking to load more nbis calls? or just shares. considering the ‘underperformance’ today compared to others


Summary: Long UPWK with $20 fair value PT and $25 upside scenario on acquisitions/margin expansion; still holding after trimming.

I trimmed $UPWK around $16.5-$17 and kept some in case buybacks + acquisitions take it to $20-25.

At $11-14 it was completely undervalued. At $16 it's still undervalued.

I'd put it $20 fair value PT and $25 if acquisitions/existing product increase forward rev. Or if operating margins increase. Either way, holding it and selling CC's if you're unsure is always a good idea.

@aleabitoreddit Is $UPWK still in the basket of growth stocks that are recovering to ATH in your port? Thinking through how to trim positions in anticipation of rate cuts.


It's only a matter of time when markets start to price in all its subsidiaries growing triple digits alongside its core operational business too.

Summary: Bullish NBIS: markets have yet to price in triple-digit growth across subsidiaries + core business; repricing inevitable.

Yeah $NBIS is actually the first of its kind. I can’t think of any other reference.

It’s only a matter of time when markets start to price in all its subsidiaries growing triple digits alongside its core operational business too.

$UBER was the perfect example yesterday, one of the biggest deals for its robotaxi division of all time but barely any movement because algorithms/markets don’t associate avride with Nebius yet.

@aleabitoreddit You haven’t seen 700% growth YoY at this scale like Nebius is guiding for because it’s literally never happened before in the history of the stock market


AXTI may become the main source for InP wafers at scale and markets are watching this bottleneck unfold real-time. Export control bans hurt their main Japanese competitors in Sumitomo and JX are impacted the most

Summary: Long AXTI: China export restrictions hurt Sumitomo/JX feedstock supply, cementing AXTI's dominance in InP substrate market as Western AI customers will have no alternative.

Markets are witnessing a supply shock happen real time with InP.

Here's the timeline this week:

Fastmarket Research, 2025:

US-based $AXTI and Japan's Sumitomo control nearly 80% of the InP market.

China Commerce Ministry - Jan 6 2026: China announces new export restrictions on "dual-use" items to Japan.

Jiji via Nippon - Jan 9, 2026:

Chinese suppliers have started informing Japanese clients: "We can no longer export Rare Metals (Japanese group of 31 minerals like Gallium, Indium, Germanium) to Japan."

Liu Junhong CGTN - Jan 10th, 2026:

"When it comes to strategic materials... Japan's dependence on China is relatively high"

SMM - Jan 12th, 2026:

7N Indium hits record high on SMM at 812.45 ~ 901.04 USD/KG.

Commentary:

$AXTI recently dropped on facing export control issues on pre-earnings this week.

However, this is widely misinterpreted, since this a double edged sword that benefits AXT.

Recent export issues cements AXT's control over the InP substrate market in the medium term from short-term revenue loss (from the inability to export to Japan).

Export control bans hurt their main Japanese competitors in Sumitomo and JX are impacted the most, as they may face a ceiling in from material shortages.

If Sumitomo runs out of feedstock in a few months, Western AI customers (Nvidia, Broadcom, Lumentum, etc.) will have zero alternative but to buy from AXTI, regardless of the price or permit delays.

We're already seeing feedstock prices explode real-time as companies scramble for long term inventory.

AXTI may become the main source for InP wafers at scale and markets are watching this bottleneck unfold real-time.

You're watching the InP "bottleneck" play out real time while hyperscalers scramble for material.

7-N Indium (required for photonics) is now parabolically exploding on SMM, reaching daily ATHs in 2026.

This is a live "Game Theory" scenario for materials controlled by $AXTI. https://t.co/3YDMVfjGTx


Summary: Author defends MSFT and CRWV against short-seller hit-piece narrative, citing tens-of-billions in minimum-utilization cloud contracts as omitted context; implied both are oversold.

Extremely poorly written and zero-contextualization article. Intentional no-contextualization led to broader selloffs last time they published an Oracle hit-piece @SEC @secpaulsatkins

The core point - “Escalating compute demands could result in overbuilt servers without sufficient financial returns” - completely omits that $MSFT signed multi-year contractual reservations for confirmed utilization with many neoclouds (eg. $17-19B with Nebius or with $CRWV)

These are tens-of-billions in minimum-utilization agreements Microsoft signed to scale capacity without “at-will” termination clauses.

By stripping out that context, this becomes a short seller hit piece + Sam Altman terrible person narrative rather than actual news.

---

@HesterPeirce @SEC_Enforcement @FINRA @CFTC - Investigate whether this media reporting, which materially affects the markets, violates Rule 10b-5. Probe patterns/coordination with external security transactions.

Most recent occurrence was October 7th, "Internal Oracle Data Show Financial Challenge of Renting Out Nvidia Chips” - speculative reporting lacking context caused tens of billions of dollars in market financial damages. An $8 – 9 billion drop in $ORCL valuation ($291 -> $284), $2B decline in $CRWV, and many other sell-offs in the sector from the article.

In this event, the article intentionally leaves out extremely important tens of billions of dollars of cloud contracts to frame discussions as a hit-piece on @sama and @satyanadella.

Bad journalism that moves markets is egregious but as this market-moving behavior is ongoing, please probe whether unsubstantiated reporting and critical information omission done by The Information is connected to external securities transactions.


Summary: Long GME to $26–$28+, expects earnings spike; downside limited by asset value ~$23.

@MR61615938 Maybe like $26 if you're not greedy, $28+ if you are.

It usually spikes around earnings so just hold until then usually. It has enough assets that shares are unlikely to drop too far beneath $23.

@aleabitoreddit Do you have a price target for G. M| E? Any catalyst in the mid to long term that's likely to happen?


Summary: Long NBIS; ATM dilution is immaterial vs projected growth path to $100B+ market cap.

@ravi_nareddy Yeah look at the quoted post. Even factoring that in, it's tiny compared to projected growth.

$NBIS is a $100B+ company in the making, it's just a matter of time.

@aleabitoreddit $NBIS ATM offering 25m shares ~$2.5B / 10% dilution


Summary: Hold NBIS shares long while selling covered calls at $140 strike weekly.

@SebastianS79509 $NBIS shares -> sell $140 covered calls every week.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you for your fast ansver. Got 100k on sideline , what would you do?


Summary: Long NBIS vs short OKLO: near-equal market caps but NBIS has $4-6B ARR next year vs OKLO pre-revenue.

@_visionarius Of course! $NBIS is almost at $OKLO's marketcap.

The difference is the latter is pre-revenue and Nebius is set to do $4-6B ARR next year lol.

@aleabitoreddit Regular shares also worth adding here in your opinion?


There's companies like $AIRO too if you feel you missed out, it's $300m mc, with ~$200m or so order backlog for 2025/2026 in drones and $60m+ cashpile. P/S is extremely low compared to others

Summary: AIRO pitched as undervalued drone play: $300M MC, ~$200M order backlog 2025/2026, $60M+ cash, low P/S vs peers.

@init_malachi There’s companies like $AIRO too if you feel you missed out, it’s $300m mc, with ~$200m or so order backlog for 2025/2026 in drones and $60m+ cashpile.

P/S is extremely low compared to others, but not really directly involved in the Venezuela takeover

@aleabitoreddit I am so upset about AVAV. If I was aware they existed public I would have bought years ago


Summary: Bullish TSM at current price as center of the whole AI trade; calls it an amazing buy.

@spybear180 Yeah ~$275. Center of the whole AI trade, even at $291 it’s an amazing buy


Summary: Long ETOR as deeply undervalued brokerage with $1B+ cash; long VIRT as undervalued asymmetric hedge vs growth stocks; cost-averaging both.

I think $ETOR is incredibly undervalued, market pricing a brokerage holding 1b+ cash at a 3.3B market cap, compounding like IBKR screams undervalued.

$VIRT was more of a hedge against growth stocks but I think it's undervalued. So I said asymmetrical  hedge which was good instead of buying $VIX with higher IV.

I'll cost average both, thesis hasn't changed. Do look at my other posts around positioning though, I wouldn't give more than 5% of my portfolio to either but if there's high conviction maybe up to 30% allocation.

@aleabitoreddit @BaronAfanas Bought VIRT at 35 and ETOR at 42 🤷🏻♀ trusting the process and your DD :) plan to hold both, but if your analysis on them changes, pls provide an update.


$VIRT was more of a hedge against growth stocks but I think it's undervalued. I'll cost average both, thesis hasn't changed


Summary: LTC should get a boost from potential ETF approval, which could come at any time following SEC withdrawal of 19-4b filings.

I'm going off CoinTelegraph data, which is pretty trusted. I wouldn't know how to calculate extensions after filing dates in SEC data.

But generally if there's a request for withdrawal it means it can be approved any time. No clue why LTC is still $106, maybe  adrop to wipe out leveraged positions, but should get a nice boost off the news.

@aleabitoreddit Great info! Random question, but does the SEC's request for withdrawal of 19-4b filings for the LTC ETF approval process mean a decision could be made at any time now? I can't find info to confirm if the Canary ETF is still set for a decision by October 2.


I actually wouldn't swing trade or take profit on this since I think it's another NVIDIA 500%+ type stock. You don't really see small cap companies growing 150+ Y/Y with 76% profit margins serving Mag7 companies every day.

Summary: Hold ALAB for 500%+ upside; rare small-cap with 150%+ growth and 76% margins serving Mag7 customers makes it an NVDA-like compounder.

Well, $ALAB just shot up 16%.

I actually wouldn't swing trade or take profit on this this since I think it's another NVIDIA 500%+ type stock.

You don't really see small cap companies growing 150+ Y/Y with 76% profit margins serving Mag7 companies every day.

I just bought long term ~$175k+ positions in $ALAB and plan to scale this to ~$500k as a potential $50B+ moonshot.

NVDA-like profit margins (76%), 144%+ Y/Y growth, customers like NVDA, AWS, MSFT, GOOGL, NVDA, AMD at 16B market cap.

Unreal customers + growth/margins. https://t.co/bRCBgtoGSB


Summary: Author holds full-port positions in SNDK and MU as a buy-and-hold strategy, not timing the bottom.

Thanks, Credo is personally more of a trade for me though.  But it's really hard to time the bottoms when things look like a falling knife ( $CRDO down 35%+ since last month).

Much easier to just full port it into $SNDK and $MU and just not touch it.

Stuff like $AIRO looked like a falling knife too then recovered 48%, so bottom catching is quite profitable if done right.

We'll see if my interpretation is correct though, I have a fun time testing my own theories against the markets.

@aleabitoreddit This is a great breakdown.
The selloff looked more like misinterpretation risk than a true demand or product thesis change.


Just bought $100K worth of $CRDO as it's a similar company to $ALAB and also growing at insane rates. I'd hold anyway as it's a solid hyper growth company.

Summary: Bought $100K CRDO as ALAB analog on hypergrowth; also holding ALAB for 500%+ upside similar to NVDA.

Just bought $100K worth of $CRDO as it's a similar company to $ALAB and also growing at insane rates.

Similar market segments and it dropped 8% last week. Usually things rise together (eg. $CRWV + $NBIS).

I'd hold anyway as it's a solid hyper growth company. https://t.co/v4kI2fb1Ef

Well, $ALAB just shot up 16%.

I actually wouldn't swing trade or take profit on this this since I think it's another NVIDIA 500%+ type stock.

You don't really see small cap companies growing 150+ Y/Y with 76% profit margins serving Mag7 companies every day.


I actually wouldn't swing trade or take profit on this since I think it's another NVIDIA 500%+ type stock


Summary: Long NBIS: MSFT contract ramps to $4.9B ARR base case, +62.5% MC upside even with zero growth assumed.

1. No i said there’s likely some revenue lag on $NBIS $MSFT ramp up but the contract will play out by late 2026 and into 2027 and their existing numbers + MSFT is at the base case $4.9B ARR, which id estimate is +62.5% from here MC wise if there were no growth.

I use 0 growth as an example just to show how structurally
undervalued the business is as is.

2. This was a high level overview on how we get to $100B MC not a full blown analysis. I mentioned in brackets I didn’t go into GPU depreciation and power capacity. But generally with GPUs even older models keep their value and still deliver equity.

@aleabitoreddit Hi, thanks for the DD, just couple points for the sake of discussion-
1/ you are assuming a linear ramp-up of the MSFT contract? This might not be realistic, and actually slower ramp up could be expected,
2/ depreciation of assets (GPU obsolescence) is not factored in?


National security names - AI ( $NBIS ) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover and MM hedging mechanically goes upward

Summary: US gov equity stakes in national security firms seen as catalyst for violent short-squeeze reversal across AI, energy, space, minerals, and quantum names.

Breaking: U.S. Government moves to take stakes in quantum computing firms, a huge game-changer.

National security names - AI ( $NBIS ), Energy ( $TE ), Space ( $RKLB ), Minerals ( $MP ), Quantum ( $RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover and MM hedging mechanically goes upward.

We now see a clear trend: Washington is deploying billions into national security companies, expanding from critical minerals to quantum computing, and likely to others.

The Trump administration buying equity of various firms critical to national security could trigger significant institutional repositioning, as funds and algorithms rethink the risks of shorting assets tied to the U.S. government's buildout of rare earths, quantum, AI, etc.

Institutions and MMs may short against retail, but they never bet against the U.S. Government's balance sheet.

Added $200k worth of $NBIS leaps at $98.8, December $105 2026 strike.

Nebius dropping 30%+ in a week from $140 to $97 might make you second-guess yourself, but it’s times like these where conviction matters most.

If you understand the fundamentals and sector, this is a gift. https://t.co/Yv0s3t1cuy


Energy ( $TE ) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover


Space ( $RKLB ) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover


Minerals ( $MP ) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'


Quantum ( $RGTI, $IONQ, $QBTS) - could see a violent reversal as shorts scramble to cover


Summary: Holds $50k in SPRB as a high-risk gamble on TA-ERT catalyst; sees near-term 100%+ runup possible but warns dilution likely caps long-term upside.

I was looking at $SPRB after @MartinShkreli posted about it and it’s TA-ERT, breakthrough enzyme therapy replacement.

Just from a quick search if SPRB’s TA-ERT is approved and they capture 10-15% market share longer term ($180–$270M ARR) of $1.4B US market... Realistic fair value today could be ~$280m-630m MC from 2-3x rev calculations.

Obviously there’s a lot of risk from clinical failures, commercialization, to dilution but a $85M market cap looks promising?

(disclosure I bought $50k worth just as a high risk gamble)

Obviously I’m not an expert in biotech and this is outside my domain, which is why I wanted to see if anyone else with any domain knowledge had feedback or red flags.

---

TLDR: Might go up to $500 temporary strike if there's no dilution just because of TA-ERT catalyst. But it's playing Russian Roulette on dilution days.

So had some more time to look into things:

Fair value $SPRB market cap is = ~$150–200m. ($85M now). In OP's post they claimed $500 PT, which is fair if company doesn't dilute.

However:

SPRB has $16.4M in cash equivalents, June 30, 2025, dilution with new shares seems inevitable just because of low cahs balance. Price rise was due to low float + good news (there's no short interest like .16% so not a short squeeze)

After issuing new shares + dilution (Market cap at $150m-$200m might normalize share price to ~$50-75), don't really see the $500 figure if dilution is included.

We might see another 100%+ runup just because of limited float toward that $500 mark (like how $BULL ran to a $60B MC off low float), but I would be against holding it long term because of russian roulette dilution on a random day.

Either way, I like playing Russian Roulette. Welcome any counterpoints


Summary: Long TSM as the purest AI buildout proxy; blowout earnings + high growth guidance + margin expansion signal durable upside.

Yeah we already got some insights into future growth with $TSM blowing out high expectations on earnings across the board.

I keep seeing people on X saying semi expansion is slowing by only citing $ASML but they're completely wrong. ASML is a measurement of Fab expansion cycles.

People just need to look at TSM, which is the purest way to measure AI datacenter/AI buildout because they literally make everything lol.

And they literally projected high growth + expanded margins.

Quantum/Minerals, etc are more speculative. Some might turn out well, but high forward rev/profit on stuff like Neoclouds are the most sustainable and will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps in future earnings reports.

@aleabitoreddit Amazing analysis, and agree that the AI stocks are "hype with fundamentals" as opposed to quantum, minerals, etc which are mostly just hype without confirmed forward revenue


$NBIS is undervalued relative to forward revenue. Easy buy at 31B MC.

Summary: Long NBIS: undervalued at $31B MC vs projected 6-8B ARR at 50-70% margins in 1-2 years; one more hyperscaler deal could push to $10B ARR.

@chicfryrice No, I'd actually say $NBIS is undervalued relative to forward revenue.

It's already projected to do 6-8B ARR 50-70% gross margins in 1-2 years, which is stupidly high growth (from 400m ARR).

One more hyperscaler contract and it could bump to $10B.  Easy buy at 31B MC.

@aleabitoreddit Is NBIS too expensive here?


$LPTH is genuinely incredible. They own the monopoly on the alternative to a critical raw material that China just choked off. This is incredibly early alpha at a $600m MC.

Summary: Long LPTH: monopoly on Black Diamond (Germanium substitute) via exclusive NRL license; Raytheon/Lockheed/L3Harris likely switchers from Chinese supply chains.

$LPTH is genuinely incredible. They own the monopoly on the alternative to a critical raw material that China just choked off.

China produces ~60-70% of the world’s Germanium + just export controlled. And Lightpath happens to have the only workaround (similar to InP with $AXTI).

They own the proprietary material called Black Diamond (Chalcogenide glass) with the exclusive license with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory.

Black Diamond = performs like Germanium but uses zero Germanium.

Raytheon, Lockheed, and L3Harris will likely switch from Chinese supply chains to LightPath’s Black Diamond for their missile/drone programs. This is incredibly early alpha at a $600m MC.

@aleabitoreddit Nuts, looks like algos are hunting your posts. Kudos, your dd is legendary 👏🏼


Summary: Scaling NBIS position to $1M on next dip; bullish into end of 2026.

@babyfolio Thanks scaling this to $1M on the next dip.

Just didn't want to buy that much on a 5% increase day

@aleabitoreddit Love the conviction!
$NBIS will be 300 by end of 26' easily.


Summary: Holds long positions in LITE, AAOI, and AXTI in photonics; bullish on AI bottleneck thesis but flags dilution/China risk for AXTI.

Disclosure: I have positions in $LITE, $AAOI, and $AXTI in the photonics sector.

From my own personal thought process, if I see the entire AI industry and players like $LITE and Innolight bottlenecked by some $600m company worth less than a new pre-revenue LLM startup, I’m long.

There is downside risk including changing ownership dilution structures if China wants to restrict $AXTI in US markets.

@aleabitoreddit Are you long any of these?


There is downside risk including changing ownership dilution structures if China wants to restrict $AXTI in US markets


Summary: Holds EOSE, FLNC, SEI as mid-to-long term energy plays; looking to add VST on the next dip.

@DigestingX I have $EOSE, $FLNC, $SEI in my portfolio right now.

Looking to add $VST on next dip to follow Nancy Pelosi.

@aleabitoreddit What are your top mid to long term energy plays?


industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'


Looking to add $VST on next dip to follow Nancy Pelosi.


Summary: Author plans to buy BULL on the dip below 12.

@__visionxry__ Oh thanks for the heads up, I’ll be buying into it for $BULL

@aleabitoreddit You thinking about $Bull on the big drop below 12?


Summary: Bullish on current dip as a buying opportunity; IREN flagged as saved from a bearish signal.

@nectarbuffs Yeah this is an incredible buying opportunity if you still have capital. Otherwise, just hold.

Looks like $IREN just got saved from the inverse Cramer. https://t.co/YRuRaUGTIv

@aleabitoreddit Buying opportunities of a lifetime. If you don’t have any more powder, just hold!


Summary: Soft bullish lean on HIMS: sticky audience, Zava tailwind, 33% short interest support; expects price to hold or rise from here.

Yeah I trimmed $HIMS around $60, but this is pretty material with the government competing with it.

At the same time I'd aruge the audience is sticky + they have Zava acqusition tailwind second half + 33% short interest.

So I'd just expect the price to hover around these levels or maybe even increase while shorts use this time to cover. It's not extremely undervalued or overvalued but there's better longs at the moment.

I'm betting that boner pills will be available for cheap on TrumpRx.

Sold off $HIMS. Really though, when the government is squeezing margin on the pharma sector, it's hard to be bullish.


bought $100k $SG on the drop to $8.22. No news, down 8.2%+. Best time to buy is on the extreme fear

Summary: Bought $100k of SG at $8.22 on no-news 8%+ drop; views extreme retail fear as the best entry point.

While people are scared, bought $100k $SG on the drop to $8.22.

No news, down 8.2%+. Meanwhile markets and high beta stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $ALAB, $CREDO, $HIMS, $APP are rising.

Best time to buy is on the extreme fear when retail are selling the shares they bought at $40 https://t.co/vBZhOJF1y0


Summary: Long SNAP; sees 50%+ upside into next year on strong earnings, opex cuts, $500M buyback, and $400M ARR from Perplexity despite near-term selloff drag.

Yeah, $SNAP earnings were incredibly solid, especially with $400m ARR from Perplexity.

Then you have opex cuts from memories Cloud coming in next year, $500m buyback, beat across the board.

Incredibly bullish mid term, but it got caught in the broader selloff. I'd agree it's extremely undervalued at $13.7B, easy 50%+ going into next year. But there's a lot of option flow + broader sell-off affecting near term stock prices.

@aleabitoreddit $SNAP earnings release timing was so unlucky. On a normal day, it would have been up over 30%.

After hours, it was up 25% but then dropped massively during the sell-off the next day.


Summary: Long TSM via March $300 calls, targeting a sell in January with potential exercise into shares.

@DigestingX I'd probably personally do $TSM March $300 calls and sell in Jan. If it blows past premium, then just exercise it into shares closer to the date.

@aleabitoreddit Love the idea of TSM calls rather than straight shares considering my portfolio size and risk appetite. How far out and what price are you targeting for the TSM calls?


Summary: Long TRGP as a beneficiary of Venezuela diluent imports enabling heavy crude pipeline flows.

Believe it or not, US wars are bullish.

Especially when there’s new market opportunities with companies profiting off nation building and a new supply of oil reserves. For example, $TRGP, that benefits from diluent imports to Venezuela (naphtha or natural gasoline) to make the heavy crude flow through pipelines.


Summary: Market underprices positive surprise events for NBIS and CIFR; IREN expected to rise on anticipated mag7 contract.

Sometimes, buy the rumor sell the news usually applies to frontrunning eg. ratecut. And sometimes frontrunning usually outpaces what happens after an event.

But these things with $NBIS $CIFR are more surprise events that positively impact forward revenue, and sometimes market underprices the event even after a stock price rises or in the case with $IREN, it goes up as people are expecting a mag7 contract soon.

@aleabitoreddit Isn't it buy on the 'rumour sell on news' concept ? Genuine question 🙏 following from India


in the case with $IREN, it goes up as people are expecting a mag7 contract soon


Summary: Author has full conviction in NBIS as a long-term hypergrowth holding.

If you wanted to chase more gains, I'd sell your Mag7 for hypergrowth stocks like $NBIS.

If you have a family to take care of and can't take any risk, there's nothing bad about holding SPY/QQQ/Mag7 and just compounding more slowly over time.   Answer depends on your risk tolerance.

I have full conviction in $NBIS but there's always the <1% black swan scenario you need to consider.

There could always be a 80% drawdown in something like $HOOD but something like Mag7 would have a less drawdown.

Also nobody said you had to full port! You can always allocate like 25% of your port to a stock

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for the great analysis, very helpful, keep it up!

Do you think i should sell my GOOGL, MSFT and NVDA to buy more NBIS? I would be a long term holder but bit scared to put things in one basket even though i really like NBIS


Summary: Long NBIS (personal pick), WULF and IREN as selective miner/neocloud winners on HPC execution thesis.

Again this is not a bear post on miners like $BITF or $CLSK. I am omega bullish thematically on Neoclouds and bullish on certain miners like $WULF or $IREN. Just because I like them doesn't mean I should own them all.

This is a nuanced post on execution risk and selectivity as not every single miner/company that does HPC will succeed.

I'm specifically talking about HPC segments when it comes to margins at scale, not BTC mining or reserves (which I am also super bullish on if you know my history).

I'm also not arguing for or against any specific miner aside from explaining why I personally chose $NBIS. I'm sure there will be other winners like $WULF in the space too.

I'm simply highlighting execution risk and pointing out that the lens people are looking at the companies (MW buildout instead of considering margins) might be wrong.

@aleabitoreddit Yeah… definitely a bear take on #Miners. Your thesis completely overlooks the fact that names like $CIFR, $IREN, $BITF, and $CLSK are actively mining and holding massive $BTC reserves — a critical long-term advantage.  Sure, contracts and short-term profitability matter, but


I am omega bullish thematically on Neoclouds and bullish on certain miners like $WULF


bullish on certain miners like $WULF or $IREN


Summary: Long LULU: undervalued with end-of-year seasonality tailwind; would sell on 20% gain.

@_MAGA_Patriot Yeah $LULU was undervalued and benefits from end of year seasonality.

Weightings change all the time, if it goes up 20% I'd sell it for something else.


Summary: Prefers TSM over NVDA; sees higher upside in NBIS given smaller market cap.

@_visionarius I just liked $TSM over $NVDA. Upside potential for $NBIS is a lot higher given marketcap.

@aleabitoreddit No NVDA? My portfolio is similar, a bit smaller but right now wondering if I should sell it for more NBIS


Upside potential for $NBIS is a lot higher given marketcap


Summary: Bullish GOOGL as the clear leader in autonomous driving (Level 4), dominating all competitors.

lol $TSLA feels like marketing snake oil currently.

Waymo ( $GOOGL ) -Level 4
Cruise ( $GM ) - Level 4
Avride - Level 4
Tesla FSD - Level 2

$TSLA still has humans remotely monitoring every drive since it's level 2 right now and it's just snake oil marketing FSD (with disclaimers that you must be at the wheel lol at all times).  If they get it right with just cameras, it has higher scale potential as you mentioned. And I don't really doubt Elon if he can make massive reusable rockets.

That aside, $GOOGL is dominating every one of them right now.

Think the better question to be asking is if avride + Uber can compete vs $TSLA or $GOOGL, rather than the standalone company.

@aleabitoreddit @Spiralout_one I honestly think Tesla will crush avride. They have a fleet of millions of vehicles. They can literally turn the into Robotaxis very quickly once they reach full autonomy which they are  weeks to months away from doing.


$UPWK is the safest value play, even over $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, and others. A 1.8B software company with ~80% gross margins doing 770m in annual revenue is almost free money.

Summary: Strong long on UPWK: calls it the safest value play at 1.8B market cap with ~80% gross margins and $770M revenue — 'almost free money.'

$UPWK is the safest value play, even over $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, and others.

Market makers flushed Upwork call open interest for August 15th, and now it's rallying where it should be above $17.5+.

A 1.8B software company with ~80% gross margins doing 770m in annual revenue is almost free money.

So for the long term play on Upwork:

$UPWK is trading at a 7.5 P/E with ~$770M in annual revenue, 78% gross margins, and $622M in cash — yet its market cap is only $1.74B.

Who cares about revenue growth when they can just scale operating margins?


Summary: Long CVX: Venezuela franchise underpriced, P/E multiple expansion warranted; also agrees VLO has immediate profit expansion.

So I definitely agree about $VLO with immediate profit expansion.

However, this is is taking the geopolitical angle that $CVX has basically become unspoken US Gov national arm for Oil, similar to Intel for semis.

It’s the only one standing in Venezuela, and is of critical importance given Trump wants to harvest the oil, and lower oil prices before midterm elections.

If you look at it in the way it basically inherited a country’s oil sector a 5% bump is not quite pricing that in.

It’s not quite Chevron found a new vertical, it’s more like Chevron became the oil operator of Venezuela and that angle alone deserves p/e multiple added given its Venezuelan assets are derisked

@aleabitoreddit Valero will make more money off of Venezualan crude than Chevron, thats why.  The money is in the refining.


a 5% bump is not quite pricing that in. It's not quite Chevron found a new vertical, it's more like Chevron became the oil operator of Venezuela and that angle alone deserves p/e multiple added given its Venezuelan assets are derisked


Summary: Long AXTI: near-monopoly status in quarters as Sumitomo/JX face export-control shortages; market mispricing creates opportunity.

They can, and this bottleneck flows downstream and hurts $COHR to $LITE capacity ramp into $GOOGL to $MSFT.

Especially given $AXTI will be monopoly status in a few quarter once Sumitomo/JX face shortages from material export controls.

People illogically reacting to former earnings from 2024 contracts and deferred revenue recognition, while ignoring the situation now presents a great opportunity imo

@aleabitoreddit What if China just continues to slow play the licenses? Wouldn't that hurt rev regardless of demand?


strong buy near term from backlog visibility. nvda next-gen chips will likely leapfrog tpu. ai expanding market, we're not seeing it slow down

Summary: Strong buy NVDA near-term on backlog visibility, next-gen chips leapfrogging TPU, and expanding AI market.

lol I was top comment trolling $NVDA's press release that went viral.

so wanted to do my buddy Jensen a solid by writing up thoughts on TPU vs GPU arguments + whether stock drop was an overreaction.

So TLDR for people skimming the post:

- strong buy near term from backlog visibility
- nvda next-gen chips will likely leapfrog tpu
- ai expanding market, we're not seeing it slow down.
- only thing to worry about is if people go out of their way to buy TPUs/AMD, next gen hyperscaler chips if and only if NVDA stops selling out of any GPUs they make.

@aleabitoreddit i was waiting for you to comment on this! thank you as always aleabito senpai


Could see it at $30+ again on a good scenario. $17 on a more modest one. It's a micro cap so worth the risk for a moonshot.

Summary: Bullish TSSI micro-cap; price targets $17 (modest) to $30+ (bull case) on AI demand tailwind.

@lincoln3_ $TSSI is an enigma since it bottomed, then there’s a mini semi bull run right now with all the AI demand like $ORCL future cloud earnings.

Could see it at $30+ again on a good scenario. $17 on a more modest one.

It’s a micro cap so worth the risk for a moonshot.

@aleabitoreddit Got in both SG and TSSI when you posted. Appreciate the insight and heads-up homie. I know you're thinking SG will recover to 10, but how about a PT for TSSI? Any thoughts? Thanks


$FLY is 2026 play, just need to bag hold until reusable medium lift comes out... I would be extremely surprised if the marktcap was under $10B ($2.5B now) if they made the second reusable medium lift after SpaceX

Summary: Long FLY as a 2026 sentiment/speculative play; expects market cap to expand from $2.5B to $10B+ on reusable medium-lift milestone.

Yeah $FLY is 2026 play, just need to bag hold until reusable medium lift comes out. Also another high beta stock capable of moving 20% in a day.

Northrop if I remember correctly was in the golden dome project and I don’t think people are making the association with fly yet.

Doesn’t really have the revenue to back up marketcap so it’s largely a sentiment stock until medium lift.

I would be extremely surprised if the marktcap was under $10B ($2.5B now) if they made the second reusable medium lift after SpaceX

@aleabitoreddit @Neat_Lama Im still holding FLY with a cost basis of 30 😂


Summary: Bullish FLY at below-IPO entry; author adding to position, compares favorably to RKLB.

@ccjdjff $FLY is an EXTREMELY GREAT entry point below IPO price right now.

I'll probably put more into it now actually, it really reminds me of $RKLB. https://t.co/EZL5CEHnj6

@aleabitoreddit $fly is quite interesting


Summary: Plans to buy SNAP Monday; bullish on the stock.

@dubiousnoob Tbh I like $SNAP now. I'd probably buy some Monday

@aleabitoreddit I would just buy more nbis

Rddt might end up like snap


it's like a fire sale to me since I do think it ends up $200+ end of year. Don't think it goes below $100 again

Summary: Long NBIS to $200+ by year-end, floor at $100; long TE as energy-sector play on data-center buildout.

Thanks! Not a great writeup lol, it’s just me admitting I don’t have domain knowledge and can’t give a good opinion.

But I chose to invest in $TE bc I know the energy sector will be a beneficiary of the data center buildout + I trust DD of others.

As for $NBIS, it’s like a fire sale to me since I do think it ends up $200+ end of year.

Don’t think it goes below $100 again and saving a few percent catching the true bottom + messing up recovery wasn’t worth it for me before I bought more leaps.

@aleabitoreddit Great write up! Quick question, based on $NBIS wave-3/Wave-(iv) setup, do you think a pullback as deep as $95 is possible, or is a shallow $105–$110 retrace more likely?


I chose to invest in $TE bc I know the energy sector will be a beneficiary of the data center buildout + I trust DD of others


Summary: Long UPWK; buy shares at $17.35, cost-average down through $16/$15, leaps at $14, more calls at $12.50.

@platochi Yeah. I'd buy shares around $17.35.

Cost avg if it went to $16. Again at $15, if it went to $14 I'd do leaps, $12.5 more calls.

It's obviously more dangerous taking more leverage with options on a nosedive but if it ever gets that low risk-reward is worth it.

@aleabitoreddit Based on your strat, would $UPWK be a possible options swing trade candidate today? Fair value around 20, buy leaps around 18.5, and shorter dated calls today at ~17.5?


Summary: HIMS seen as undervalued with Zava acquisition boosting revenue growth and $250M buyback providing support.

@himshouse $HIMS is seems undervalued at this point, especially with the Zava acquisition coming into help revenue growth soon.

Having a $250M repurchase program helps a bit with that narrative. Still would prefer that going toward acquisitions and growth though.

$HIMS MARKET CAP IS NOW LESS THAN $8 BILLION 🤯


Summary: High-conviction long NBIS to $400 PT / $100B MC in 1Y on full-stack margin + sum-of-parts; low-conviction longs in IREN (power capacity) and CIFR.

I still have 6fig in random $CIFR strikes but not high conviction.

Short TLDR on why I have high conviction in $NBIS compared to others is because

-Nebius is full stack -> higher margin (software orchestration for GPU utilization, we why that's important and a moat from $ORCL build-out failure, and why $CRWV bought out a lot of software companies).

-sum of parts (eg. FTX investing in Anthropic, $HOOD, where they all went up 1000% over a few years) can outlast a main business even if margins got compressed and $NBIS has a large stake in great companies like Clickhouse

-more diversified client base (learned from $ORCL why that's important too) for buildout -> usage compared to other Neoclouds.

High conviction $400 PT, $100B MC in 1Y for a bull case.

I'm long stuff like $IREN too just because of their power capacity or $CIFR being Nebius-light in terms how they did fundraising + Mag7 client but it's slightly different me believing in a company vs. thinking they will outform from fundamentals.


I'm long stuff like $IREN too just because of their power capacity


I still have 6fig in random $CIFR strikes but not high conviction


They now have $100m to fund capacity expansion (direct revenue increase) and should be capped out on sales. AXT owns the supply chain as a vertically integrated company, so any hike would just be an increase on their own margins.

Summary: Long AXTI: $100M funds capacity expansion boosting revenue, and vertical integration means InP price hikes by Chinese vendors expand margins rather than compressing them.

No clue about revenue estimates but two things about $AXTI.

1. They now have $100m to fund capacity expansion (direct revenue increase) and should be capped out on sales.

2. Paywalled info showed that Chinese vendors were starting InP price hikes for Western companies. AXT owns the supply chain as a vertically integrated company, so any hike would just be an increase on their own margins.

This would scale up if we see a HBM type shock for substrate prices

@aleabitoreddit Any guesstimates on how hi revenue goes?


Summary: AXTI and SMTOY are structural bottleneck plays on the AI buildout, controlling 60%+ of critical InP supply for optical interconnects.

It's multifaceted. However, InP is EXTREME because $AXTI and $SMTOY control roughly 60%+ of this critical global supply.

The industry's shift from copper to photonics has created this structural single point of failure on the entire buildout.

Every optical transceiver/interconnects in hyperscaler data centers from Google TPUs, NVIDIA's CPO roadmap, AWS/Meta networks requires InP-based components.

This is the definition of a bottleneck.

The future of the entire trillion dollar AI buildout depends on the stability of some random $700m penny stock and a Japanese industrial giant.

@aleabitoreddit Energy will be the main bottle neck


I'm holding personally holding my $VLN shares 1Y+. even short term something like 5-7 is more likely, which is still around double current prices

Summary: Holding VLN 1Y+; sees short-term 5-7x EV/revenue (double current price) and long-term 14-18x, with robotics as a 2026-2027 catalyst.

Yeah the more I look into it the more I like it. I’m holding personally holding my $VLN shares 1Y+. Others can do whatever they want with the information.

My thought process is that it would likely take some time to price in premiums like 14-18 ev/revenue anyway. But even short term something like 5-7 is more likely, which is still around double current prices.

Also it’s extremely high margin too for their fastest growing segments, and I expect robotics to be a huge theme in 2026 and into 2027.

@aleabitoreddit So it looks more and more like  a long term hold to you?


$CRWV is well deserving of F tier. Balance sheet wise, it's a nightmare, especially with the $14B+ in debt plus the $1B+ debt interest for the buildout for OpenAi which may or may not be able to pay. A lot of the profit goes off to paying debt interest which hurts margins a lot

Summary: Bearish CRWV: $14B+ debt, $1B+ annual interest, $1.9B cash, OpenAI payment uncertainty, and margin drag vs. debt-free neocloudpeers.

$CRWV is well deserving of F tier. If we go from an offering point of view, then it’s top of the line. Balance sheet wise, it’s a nightmare, especially with the $14B+ in debt plus the $1B+ debt interest for the buildout for OpenAi which may or may not be able to pay.

They also have $1.9B cash left. A lot of the profit goes off to paying debt interest which hurts margins a lot (compared to other neoclouds that don’t have that interest since they did convertible note).

@aleabitoreddit Coreweave in F? 😂😂 You are not serious right?


Summary: Long AAOI as structurally undervalued photonics play on 800G supercycle + hyperscaler ASIC clusters; also long LITE, ALAB, NBIS, TSM on Mag7 AI buildout revenue flow.

I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them.

Lite uniquely because of its role in GOOGL TPU v7, AMZN Trainium v3/4, and NVDA Blackwell.

But there's a new one I found out about.

A small cap <$3B player that fits the thesis:

Name - $AAOI

A small cap photonics player, and one of the two photonics players I'm invested in:

1. Lumentum is uniquely positioned in every single supply chip deployment/ramp, as the Optical Circuit Switching  technology is used in Blackwell, Trainium, and Ironwood as a "scale-across" type technology.

$LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all.

2. Applied Optoelectronics is more of the "scale-out" connectivity, for custom ASIC clusters like Trainium, Maia through 400G and 800G optical cables and transceivers.

$AAOI wins no matter what as well given its role with AWS as a whale client for Trainium, and with MSFT Maia ASICs.

The industry is going through a "supercycle" driven by the migration to 800G speeds and AAOI is in the center of it.

On top of that, AAOI plays unique geopolitical angle,
America first.

Unlike many other companies that are fabless and export production elsewhere to Taiwan, Applied Optoelectronics makes their own lasers in Texas.

US hyperscalers (specifically Amazon and Microsoft) are aggressively reducing reliance on Chinese supply  chains for critical infrastructure and that helps AAOI’s ability to manufacture lasers at home.

And we've seen another huge volume order from a  "major hyperscaler" on its 800G data center transceivers.

But AAOI trades like a distressed company; however, the implied revenue of its Amazon warrant agreement creates an asymmetric risk/reward profile on its 800G ramp in Q4 2025 and FY2026. AAOI seems structurally undervalued, given its role in the AI buildout and existing hyperscaler contracts.

The markets are finally catching up to LITE, but it feels $AAOI is yet to begin, given its small market cap size but unique angle of a critical player to hyperscaler ASIC clusters and Made in America.

The market is currently re-rating heavily with photonics players and assigning a heavy premium, yet AAOI is only up 2.20% this year and seems like it's just about to begin.

Oracle [ $ORCL ] earning results and its effect on the neocloud sector like $NBIS & $IREN:

Oracle reported earnings with a beat on EPS and a record backlog but, dropped 12% after hours.

Oracle is down 39.8% from September 11th highs and brought down the sector with it.

Here's https://t.co/jXOAO92qnP


$LITE wins no matter what. Hyperscaler ASIC vs. GPU as it's in the center of it all.


I entered $ALAB, $NBIS, $TSM, and $LITE because of Mag7 funneling revenue numbers into them.


If you're thinking about taking profits on $TSSI, just remember the stock was $30 before dilution and there's a huge semi bull run... Could see it go up 10%+ a day if the run continues.

Summary: Hold/buy TSSI; was $30 pre-dilution, could run 10%+ daily amid ongoing semi bull run.

If you’re thinking about taking profits on $TSSI, just remember the stock was $30 before dilution and there’s a huge semi bull run with $SMCI, $TSM, $AVGO, $IREN, $NBIS, $WYFI, $NVDA and $ORCL.

Could see it go up 10%+ a day if the run continues. https://t.co/ks67hMAi01

Bought $40K of $TSSI now that the Semi rally extended back to server racks like $SMCI.

Down from $31 -> $13.6, good chance for a rebound for small caps given the rest of semis/AI from $TSM, $CREDO, $NBIS, $AVGO, $MRVL, $ALAB and others have rallied. https://t.co/jWkww0Avro


Summary: Long KSPI at $82, bought $100k+, scaling to $250k; 47% Y/Y growth, 31% margins, 7.9x P/E cited as thesis.

$KSPI is an extremely good buy at $82 after this week's 7.2% drop. So bought $100k+ worth, plan to scale this to $250k cost average.

$HOOD $SOFI $BULL aside, $KSPI is growing 47% Y/Y as a fintech with 31% profit margins and a 7.9 P/E.

Might make a WSB style post about this. https://t.co/JdyYm2rBuV


Summary: Bullish CORZ: $8.7B 12-year colo deal provides predictable cashflows, capex mostly funded by Coreweave — better model than debt financing.

You’re right, I missed $CORZ. Thanks for pointing it out,  and appreciate others like @cazenove_uk for that too.

Should just treat it as standalone now given $CRWV merger got terminated the other day, don’t know how it slipped my mind. I’ll add that in the next 2/2 post.

$8.7 billion colo with $CRWV over 12 years gives $CORZ more predictable cashflows, and majority of capex ~80% ($~196m/ $244.5 million Q3) or so was funded by Coreweave, which is a lot nicer of a model for shareholders than convertible debt or toxic debt interest cutting into margins.

Also, with ~1.3-1.5 GW capacity, Coreweave only taking up 500 MW, and revenue offsetting capex, it’s quite interesting.


Summary: Bullish on equities broadly; cites improving fundamentals across hyperscalers and growth names; buying dips rather than exiting.

@platochi has a valid thesis too. There's not one correct one for sure, but my core reasoning is that there's improving fundamentals (forward earnings, margins, growth), across the board from hyperscalers like $GOOG, $AMZN down to growth stocks from $HOOD, to $RKLB.

If companies started missing earnings and revising downward like $FISV, (maybe not to that extent lol) then I would be looking to exit the market instead of buying dips.

@aleabitoreddit What's your reasoning that it's not continued crash?


Summary: Long ORCL via calls on dip, bullish on OpenAI/TikTok revenue potential; also long CRM calls on gut feel.

DCA's into $ORCL positions. Bought some calls $284, on the 2.4% drop.

Could see extended selloff into very early October but too much forward rev potential with OpenAi, TikTok, etc so risk/reward is worth it imo https://t.co/wY2iMVK43u

---

$CRM calls also looks good somehow at $243, just a fuzzy feeling


$CRM calls also looks good somehow at $243, just a fuzzy feeling


Summary: Mega bullish on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics on memory/foundry cycle; recommends EWY (options) or FLKR (shares) for non-Korea access.

Just a heads up:

If you don’t have access to Korean stocks and don’t want to miss the memory/foundry mega cycle:

Use $EWY for options or $FLKR for shares (lower .19% exp ratio)

You can get high exposure to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics - both of which I’m mega bullish on https://t.co/zm1aEXpDnW


Use $EWY for options or $FLKR for shares


Summary: Bullish NBIS: 700%+ YoY growth, $8B ARR, 20-30% EBITDA margins, $6B+ NAV — not comparable to zero-revenue bubble stocks.

@Mitchelldzll @455BAG Bag holding a bubble burst is when you hold $20B mc 0 revenue quantum companies under Fed tightening.

Not a company ( $NBIS ) growing 700%+ Y/Y doing $8 Billion ARR, 20-30% EBITDA margins, holding ~$6B+ in NAV assets from companies powering Meta and Antrophic, valued at $24B

@aleabitoreddit @455BAG Bubble has burst unfortunately. Bag holding for life


Summary: Bullish TSM: monopoly position intact; INTC too far behind to threaten it for at least 8 years.

Good question, for $TSM it's always going to be an annoying headwind in terms of an invasion of Taiwan.

It's too critical of a national security issue and I'm confident the US would go to war with anyone who threatens Taiwan due to the fact they're central to the whole supply chain and AI infrastructure. And I'm confident no country would want to get in a direct war with America.

As for the moat part, $TSM is kinda a monopoly that everyone in the world is using. US backing up $INTC won't change the back that they're way too far behind for the next 8 years at least.

@aleabitoreddit How do you feel about geopolitical risks for $TSM ?

Given $INTC being backed up by the USA gov, wouldn't that represent a competition risk for $TSM?.


Summary: Buy neocloud names backed by Hyperscalers (NBIS, IREN, CIFR, WULF) on irrational selloff; avoid ORCL and CRWV due to OpenAI credit risk exposure.

Oracle [ $ORCL ] earning results and its effect on the neocloud sector like $NBIS & $IREN:

Oracle reported earnings with a beat on EPS and a record backlog but, dropped 12% after hours.

Oracle is down 39.8% from September 11th highs and brought down the sector with it.

Here's why:

The sell-off was not merely a reaction to marginal revenue miss, but both an algorithmic short and investor selloff on the sustainability of the AI capex cycle and the creditworthiness of the sector's primary tenant:

OpenAI.

Oracle's announcement of a $15 billion increase in 2026 capital spending to nearly $50 billion was inextricably linked to a reported $300 billion partnership with OpenAI.

Originally, OpenAI was the frontier LLM, with promising capex promises to Oracle, Coreweave and others, contributing to the initial repricing of the sector.

However, with over $1t+ in obligations and increasing competition from Anthropic, Gemini, XAI, and others, the markets have serious doubts on whether Oracle, Coreweave, and others are building for a tenant that cannot currently fund its obligations from operating cash flow.

WE're seeing the market effectively signaling that the market Oracle is creating an unsustainable debt-funded "vendor financing" for OpenAI, which cannot fulfill its promises.

So, the drop was rational: The sell-off was driven by a rational repricing of credit risk and capital  intensity.

OpenAI Funding Fear is Valid: The hypothesis that OpenAI lacks the funds to honor its contracts is supported by a glaring mismatch between its revenue ($13B) and its obligations ($60B/year).

Credit Fears are Real: The widening of Oracle's CDS spreads sees a rising probability of a "credit event" downgrade or default.

Furthermore, we're seeing this trigger a contagion effect across the "Neocloud" sector from $NBIS dropping from $140 to $90s, $IREN dropping $80 to $40s, $CIFR dropping from $24s to $17s.

But is this a buying opportunity for Neoclouds like $WULF, $NBIS, $IREN, and others?

Yes.

Is this a good buying opportunity for $ORCL?

No.

Forward Outlook:

$ORCL (large portion) , $CRWV (25% backlog) are the two players largely dependent on OpenAI and this narrative can flip in an instant  (+30%+ change) depending on capital raising activity from OpenAI.

If OpenAI files for an oversubscribed IPO in 2026 at high valuations and it's new GPT models beats out Gemini/Claude, we can see this change.

However, many other players are isolated from OpenAI. The original thesis of the Neocloud sector was Mag7 capex funndel from their cash cows segments (Azure, AWS, GCP) down into: $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF, and others.

But as the largest players ( $ORCL, $CRWV) fall, these algorithmically bring down the whole sector.

If you look at the companies individually, companies like $CIFR and $WULF are being backstopped by $GOOGL, and $IREN / $NBIS are funded by $MSFT.

These are locked in contract backlogs from Hyperscalers/Mag7, not OpenAI.

This irrational selloff due to misunderstanding of risks presents an amazing buying opportunity for the Necoloud sector, but not companies tied to OpenAI like $ORCL and $CRWV.

Post-Fed Interest Rate 25BPS cut.

December 11th ratings:

Strong Buy:
$CRCL
$COIN
$AMKR
$CRDO
$IBIT
$MSTR
$AMZN
$SMCI
$TSM
$TSSI
Sk Hynix
$SNAP
Samsung Electronics
$ALAB
$META
$NBIS
$CIFR

Buy:
$KRUS
$AVGO
$NFLX
$KRKNF
$HIMS
$FLY
$OSS
$TE
$FLNC
$LITE
$COHR
$RKLB
$TTD
$NVDA
$CLS


But is this a buying opportunity for Neoclouds like $WULF, $NBIS, $IREN, and others? Yes.


Is this a good buying opportunity for $ORCL? No.


not companies tied to OpenAI like $ORCL and $CRWV


Summary: Long AXTI as main beneficiary of China export controls on Japan; medium-to-long term supply chain control advantage with IQE as a key InP substrate customer.

$AXTI is the main beneficiary of China's export controls on Japan as a double edged sword from short term revenue hit but medium-longer term control over supply chains.

As you mentioned the likely Japanese supply chain shock threw IQE a lifeline, since the smaller player became one of the only "safe" Western epi-foundry. And they likely got record demand as mentioned from their earnings because hyperscalers are fighting to secure any non-Chinese capacity.

However, funny thing is they still buy the InP substrates from $AXTI to grow the crystals on top (AXT listes IQE as one of the main overseas customers for InP substrates), so bottleneck doesn't exactly change.

@aleabitoreddit You have done great work on AXTI!  Thank you for all of your insights.  This morning a long time leading AXT customer announced positive news which I believe confirms your bullish thesis.  IQE london listed is trading up sharply today but still down 90% for 5 year highs.


Summary: Currently holding concentrated Neocloud positions in both NBIS and WLAC.

@mikelfilko Of course, my Neocloud positions are concentrated in $NBIS and $WLAC right now.

People can have others, I just listed examples above, not what I personally did.  There's a lot more out there for each sector and many other sectors that have momentum.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for sharing, was curious if $WLAC can also form part of the portfolio?


Summary: Author's moonshot basket targeting 1000% returns over 5 years across space, AI, semi, crypto, fintech, social, health, and software.

My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations.

Space - $RKLB (220B)
AI - $CRWV (470B)
Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B)
Crypto -  $BKKT (1.8B)
Fintech - $DJT (49B)
Social - $BMBL (6.2B)
Health - $HIMS (95B)
Software - $UPWK (19B)

What are your picks?


Summary: Long CRDO on insane earnings/projection growth; long AXTI on optical component bottleneck forcing copper life extension.

I mean hasn't $MRVL announced an AEC killer with Alaska A like 4+ different times now since 2022? I treat it like $AMD saying they'll finally beat $NVDA with each gen release.

$CRDO's earnings + projections just keeps growing at insane rates, though Marvell would be a serious competitor (but room for both if Marvell takes off).

I see optical as the biggest threat, but I've been expecting a huge optical bottleneck for opticals components w/ $AXTI, so hyperscalers will likely be forced into copper life extension.

@aleabitoreddit CRDO's problem is Marvell's Alaska


I've been expecting a huge optical bottleneck for opticals components w/ $AXTI


Summary: Endorses BTC long timing on regime change, bitcoin seizure, and Venezuela oil price tailwind boosting markets and bitcoin.

@JamesWynnReal not the worst timing post regime change + bitcoin seizure. also venezuela is est. to add a decent amount GDP growth to US from some calculations bc it pushes oil prices down, which is bullish markets + bitcoin.

https://t.co/4Ib72DSIKK

Just upped my $BTC long.

I know a breakout when I see one.

- Wynn https://t.co/7LNmy1assC