SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range. If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix's operating profits for example would be ~$300B. Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation

Summary: Author calls KOSPI/EWY selloff irrational fear-driven deleveraging; strongly bullish SK Hynix on ~$300B operating profit outlook and structural memory demand; also implicitly long Samsung.

Feels like everyone is doom-posting KOSPI saying:

> “Look at the chart, it can’t keep going up like this!”

> Memory is a black hole for demand ( $SNDK taking 3Y preorders )

> $EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix, not a representation of the Korean economy

> Like saying Taiwan Index is a bubble because the index that tracks $TSM and Mediatek goes up.

> Memory demand/AI doesn’t just disappear because of a War in Iran, but it does get more expensive.

> Increased energy from crude/LNG get  passed down to hyperscalers, not eaten up in opex.

It’s looks to be fear selling and deleveraging (3x ETFs and 10x likely got wiped out today) rather than materially operational (slight bearish headwind, but not enough for -30%).

SK Hynix futures is now trading in the high $300B MC-low $400B range.

If MS and updated analyst projections are even slightly right, SK Hynix’s operating profits for example would be ~$300B.

They’ll be sitting on too much money by 2028 as a cushion if memory prices  drops. (and not even considering demand becomes structural).

Looks to be another DeepSeek-Nvidia type fear selling situation, especially as nand/dram prices get hiked again recently. More of a question of timing the bottom.

It’s times like these logic matter more than irrational headline selling.


everyone is doom-posting KOSPI... It looks to be fear selling and deleveraging... rather than materially operational

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


$EWY is basically just two stocks, Samsung and SK Hynix


Summary: Selloff in NVDA/AMD/TSM/MU supply chain overdone — proposal has near-zero chance of passing as-is; sensational headlines caused false panic.

“US Mulls Requiring Permits for Global $NVDA, $AMD AI Chip Sales”

Markets are reacting violently to news of the Trump administration was thinking about giving Nvidia the $AXTI export control treatment.

Keyword: Proposal | Draft.

There is an almost zero chance it passes as is.

Tech companies are likely lobbying the administration as this gets reported.

In the article:

The Trump administration will propose regulations that would require American approval for AI chip shipments worldwide.

The result of this bill would bottleneck the AI trade for no reason and harm Trump’s favorite metric: the US stock market.

Trump was known for rescinding the Biden-era AI Diffusion Rule:

“Major U.S. tech firms, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Oracle, lobbied against the rule, arguing it could cost them billions in revenue and push partners towards Chinese technology.”

So a new policy getting enacted, would be counterintuitive to his agenda.

Unfortunately other articles + news on elsewhere reworded this as an imminent export control, rather than a proposal.

Sensational / false headline reporting triggered a massive selloff of the entire supply chain from $TSM, $NVDA, to $MU today.

However, people do have a right to be worried about the implications.


Sensational / false headline reporting triggered a massive selloff of the entire supply chain from $TSM, $NVDA, to $MU today.


Summary: Bullish VLN; views it as deeply misvalued with low downside protected by cash balance.

Great post on $VLN! I’d recommend everyone do their own research on companies like this.

It’s no longer close to 1:1 on assets/MC but personal my feeling was that it’s still deeply misvalued, with low downside risk due to cash balance.

We’ll see how things get priced in after their next earnings.

Today I entered $VLN, I honestly can’t write something better than the post I attached, and quite frankly it was Serenitys post who introduced me to the name so ill share the original as it is the best representation of the thesis

What I like- because of their design wins from


Summary: Bullish BTC at current levels; sees regulatory headwinds as priced in and expects recovery.

I feel like Bernstein and institutions missed a lot on why Bitcoin crashed.

Same with WSJ + media, which is why nobody in retail knows.

Two things:

1. “Clarity Act” + part of the Genius Act is a tactical nuke on crypto by banks + Gov to strengthen the dollar.

“Safety” purposes is just BS.

-> For example (Stablecoin reserves must be kept 1:1 with USD/treasuries)

Tether has 100k+ Bitcoin (as per CEO last year conference) and were a net buyer in 2025.

With the act the main buyers like Tether would probably be a forced sellers 2026-2027 with their $180b-ish stablecoin MC since they have a lot of illiquid assets like farms in South America while their 100k+ Bitcoin is liquid.

-> Stablecoin yield

This is extremely destructive if exchanges and fintechs were not able to give yield off stablecoin and other deposits. An enormous of liquidity would flow out of crypto.

There’s also different clauses around exchange rules regarding USD collateral + banks in flow of funds + national cftc licenses that would likely blow up a lot of exchanges/dexs/fintechs tops and harm altcoins.

There’s just way too many poison pill clauses that just kills off any non-bank fintech/crypto company. Eg. Making banks an effective monopoly. But can explain in another post.

2. Silver liquidity nuke. This was CME + exchange margin hikes to unreasonable levels to force liquidation cascades, with a “hawkish” fed chair as a narrative excuse.

Other VCs were claiming some Asian firm blew up and were forced to liquidate a bitcoin from the silver trade but it’s all multifaceted, likely stemming from above two.

Almost zero mainstream media reporting over changes to percentages and 6+ hikes. Just blaming the fed chair.

This also trickled into anything high beta in the stock market but looks like an isolated crash.

But basically, nobody can report that the Clarity Act is a poison pill nuking crypto because of bank lobbying and that the CME margin hikes (to force Silver liquidations).

Bessent and the Us gov would just go after them if they did lol. So nobody in retail knows and are being gaslit that “Clarity Act” is a good thing for crypto.

When in reality US gov is just doing everything to strengthen the dollar + bank monopoly from their lobbying while blowing up crypto in the process.
(Which makes sense if I’m the government, I’m just citing the honest repercussions)

That being said Bitcoin at these levels feels like free real estate and I expect the asset + crypto companies that applied for bank charters in specific to recover.

Bernstein: "Weakest Bitcoin bear case in history: What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history. When all stars are aligned, Bitcoin community manufactures a self-imposed crisis of confidence. Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel. Media is back


Summary: Buy-and-hold conviction on LASR as pure-play directed-energy/Golden Dome play; also long RKLB on reusable rockets and space TAM.

Looking back, should have had more Energy Directed Weapon exposure.

Especially with America’s Golden Dome laser defense giving $LASR practically exponential TAM.

There’s only two companies I’ve seen:

$RKLB back in the 10’s for reusable rockets and infinite space TAM

And

$LASR for laser beams that go pew pew to hypersonic missiles and rockets

That I would buy and hold like a meme stock just based on raw, unadulterated badass tech.

It definitely helps that I’ve seen videos of Nlight laser beams shoot down rockets from the Iron Beam yesterday.

$LASR is the only US publicly traded, pure-play Energy Directed Weapons stock.

$LASR is the laser engine for Rafael's Iron Beam.

And markets may have missed the the two-hop relation to NLight.

The Iron Beam was live for the first time today and wildly successful.

An https://t.co/gDJN9tEzJS


$RKLB back in the 10's for reusable rockets and infinite space TAM And $LASR for laser beams... That I would buy and hold like a meme stock


Summary: PAYP acceptable but not screaming buy at $11.8B; RDDT flagged as a better mispriced opportunity right now.

PayPay ( $PAYP ) is the newest IPO.

If you're wondering if you should fomo in the $PYPL / WeChat of Japan at an $11.8B MC?

 Let's find out.

If you've ever been to Japan: PayPay is everywhere.

It's the Japanese SuperApp for payments, investing, and banking.

Here's a breakdown:

FY 2025 metrics:
Revenue: ¥299.1 billion (~$1.9 billion)
Growth Rate: ~26.3%
Net Income (GAAP): ¥39.2 billion (~$248 million)
P/E: ~44x
Stock Base Compensation: Virtually 0, unlike $SNAP and $DUOL in the US.

If we look at balance sheet:

Consolidated accounting makes things a nightmare when you see $PAYP  ¥4.85 Trillion (~$32.3 Billion) in liabilities or customer deposits mixed into assets.

But pre-IPO net debt is approximately -$480M, and post-IPO proceeds of ~$496M.

So balance sheet looks roughly net cash slightly positive but neutral. Also PSA: Softbank is the majority owner, lockup expires September 2026.

At $11B, it's roughly ~5.8x P/S and very profitable for a  Japanese superapp growing at 26% with expanding margins and zero SBC.

By US standards, this is normally valued, not exactly a screaming buy.

TLDR: In general, $PAYP is not a terrible long at $11.8B.

Might get some IPO hype + mixed with low float dynamics, but would not chase if it ends up a lot higher.

Maybe there's some TAM expansion like $HOOD that prices it up over time. But Softbank ATM-like overhang in a few months.

But there's a lot better mispriced choices out there like $RDDT right now.


there's a lot better mispriced choices out there like $RDDT right now

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: Long AAOI over next year; risk-return extremely promising vs peers despite high beta volatility.

@Ren_aramb Nice! I see $AAOI risk-return extremely promising over the next year compared to other companies.

It’s just very high beta so need to stomach the volatility and develop your own conviction.

@aleabitoreddit I doubled down on my position today on the unfortunate news. The risk, reward seems to be in the right place and the volume as well. Lfg!


Summary: Long RDDT on 70% Y/Y growth, 91% gross margins, and $2.5B cash; implies pivoting away from HOOD and HIMS due to revenue deceleration and structural headwinds.

Day 1 of holding $RDDT: +5.83%.

Reddit is growing rapidly 50%+ Y/Y (grew 70% Y/Y this quarter) and net income is 1/3rd their revenue.

Gross margins are 91%, which is absurdly high.

Surprised more $HOOD or $HIMS holders after earnings are not pivoting after seeing revenue deceleration or disruption.

You have actual structural headwinds for revenue for other companies while Reddit is just noise from AI disruption.

I'm long $RDDT at $139.

Reddit presents an incredible opportunity after the -44.9% drop last month.

Blowout Q4 earnings, but likely short-term option chain + liquidity influencing price.

Results TLDR:

Q4 Revenue: $726M (70% Y/Y growth)
Net Income: $252M
Cash: ~$2.5 Billion, https://t.co/ie2VU0nRb5


Surprised more $HOOD or $HIMS holders after earnings are not pivoting after seeing revenue deceleration or disruption


Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic


Celestial은 꽤 오랫동안 $POET 와 함께 빌딩해왔는데, $MRVL(마벨) 하이퍼스케일러 백도어 소식까지 더해진 현시점에서 그것이 가장 큰 리스크 완화 요인이라고 생각합니다

Summary: Bullish POET on Celestial partnership + Marvell hyperscaler news as key de-risking factors, though acknowledges moonshot risk profile.

저도 비슷한 생각입니다! Celestial은 꽤 오랫동안 $POET 와 함께 빌딩해왔는데, $MRVL(마벨) 하이퍼스케일러 백도어 소식까지 더해진 현시점에서 그것이 가장 큰 리스크 완화 요인(de-risking factor)이라고 생각합니다.

다만, 이 종목은 일종의 '문샷(moonshot, 대박 아니면 쪽박)'에 가깝습니다. 자금 조달 이후 재무 상태는 탄탄해졌지만, 시장에는 이보다 더 비대칭적인 수익 기회(asymmetrical plays)를 제공하는 종목들이 분명 있을 겁니다.

InP 쇼티지 관련
$ALMU
$POET 눈에 띄는데,

ALMU는 미팅해보니 잘 모르겠고,

POET은 만나서 대화를 못 해봤기에 섣불리 말은 못 하겠지만 나보다 더 많이 아는 Celestial, Marvell 소속 과학자, 엔지니어들이 검증 했겠지


Cost averaging up on $AXTI since it's the bottleneck of the entire AI industry for many years to come, even at a small $2.4B MC

Summary: Averaging up AXTI as AI bottleneck; long AAOI on revenue/growth vs LITE at 1/10th valuation; new longs IQE, LASR, and SK Hynix on memory cycle.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Both. Cost averaging up on $AXTI since it’s the bottleneck of the entire AI industry for many years to come, even at a small $2.4B MC.

$AAOI probably has a long way to go, it leapfrogged $LITE 2026 revenue + growth midyear 2027 at 1/10th the valuation.

I did enter new longs like $IQE as a $LITE supplier. And then been adding new positions like $LASR for energy directed weapons.

Definitely long memory since SK Hynix might print more operating income than their entire marketcap by next year…

Then I did rotate out of a few like some advanced packing names into extreme existing bottlenecks from ai capex

@aleabitoreddit Are you still an owner, a buyer at these levels?


$AAOI probably has a long way to go, it leapfrogged $LITE 2026 revenue + growth midyear 2027 at 1/10th the valuation


I did enter new longs like $IQE as a $LITE supplier


been adding new positions like $LASR for energy directed weapons


Definitely long memory since SK Hynix might print more operating income than their entire marketcap by next year


Summary: MRVL is an amazing long despite minimal CPO exposure; Soitec and TSEM flagged as the two CPO plays.

@siflower You're getting very minimal exposure from $MRVL. Celestial revenue was ~$500m 2028, $1B 2029.

Most of Marvell's revenue ramp comes from $MSFT Maia and ASICs toward 2028, but it's an amazing long nevertheless.

For CPO Soitec and $TSEM are probably the two.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think I can buy MRVL to get exposure to CPO? Can't buy SOI and IQE in the US.


For CPO Soitec and $TSEM are probably the two

Soitec listed on Euronext Paris as SOI.PA


This delay is extremely bullish to certain photonics players like $AAOI... Is probably the most greatest thing that can happen to many photonics companies like $AAOI

Summary: CPO delay is bullish for traditional optical transceiver makers (AAOI, LITE, COHR) sold off mistakenly; net negative for CPO players like Soitec.

The entire market misunderstood $AVGO CEO’s comments around CPO.

This caused a selloff today on the photonics sector from $LITE to $COHR in the morning.

Markets trade off headline news but miss all the nuances.

CPO is an evolution to photonics.

This delay is extremely bullish to certain photonics players like $AAOI.

While net negative to CPO companies like Soitec.

Markets and people conflated CPO with the photonics sector as a whole.

Tan basically just gave traditional transceiver makers a massive extension on their product lifecycle.

The exact quote:

"What all I'm trying to say is you don't need to go run into some bright shiny objects called CPO, even as we are the lead in CPOs. CPOs will come in its time, not this year, maybe not next year, but in its time."

In fact, $GOOGL rejecting CPO and $AVGO delaying CPO timeline projections by years:

Is probably the most greatest thing that can happen to many photonics companies like $AAOI (optical transceivers) that dropped 8% on open then recovered to green.

Inside the rack, hyperscalers can still use copper. But for longer distances, pluggable optical transceivers are used (and now get a life extension by years).

Names get sold off all together, but where the most money to be made is understanding the nuances everyone misses.


This caused a selloff today on the photonics sector from $LITE to $COHR in the morning... Names get sold off all together, but where the most money to be made is understanding the nuances everyone misses


While net negative to CPO companies like Soitec


I was bearish on $HIMS too until $NVO partnered up + dropped the lawsuit, giving $HIMS revenue stream expansion and more regulatory clarity. This is a massive fundamental shift.

Summary: Flipped bullish on HIMS: NVO partnership + lawsuit dropped removes existential legal risk and opens revenue expansion and regulatory clarity.

Yes the 40% SI made sense earlier.

I was bearish on $HIMS too until $NVO partnered up + dropped the lawsuit, giving $HIMS revenue stream expansion and more regulatory clarity.

The lawsuit was threatening their entire balance sheet + revenue growth + global expansion, so it made sense why short sellers piled on.

However, it was the biggest surprise of the decade last Friday when $HIMS's legal drama all vanished in a day.

This is a massive fundamental shift.

@aleabitoreddit 40% short interest is there for a reason


Summary: Adding aggressively to AAOI post-earnings on 4.5B ARR guidance, ~40% margins, and photonics premium valuation vs market cap.

@Pacheca12345 Probably tripling my $AAOI position size after earnings.

4.5B ARR for photonics(which usually has a premium like $LITE ), ~40% margins, $5.5B MC.

Again idk, this is just unheard of guidance scale up.

@aleabitoreddit Too late to hop onboard now?


Credo will be a core part of the AI buildout in the future… The selloff to $95 was may have been one of the biggest dip-buying opportunities this year

Summary: Bullish CRDO: mid-term fears overblown, massive Q3 revenue beat, core AI buildout beneficiary; $95 was a major dip-buying opportunity.

Imagine panicking with $CRDO at $95 ($17B MC).

If you bought then it would be a 52.6%+ gain in a week after today's preliminary ER.

Mid-term fears were overblown. 200%+ YoY revenue growth for this year. $340M guidance -> $406M (huge beat) for Q3 2026 guidance.

That being said, long term risks are still with photonics transitions (since this is medium term guidance).

But, Credo will be a core part of the AI buildout in the future, it just loses it's defacto "leader" status.

The selloff to $95 was may have been one of the biggest dip-buying opportunities this year.


Summary: SMCI looks cheap at ~$14B MC / 10-11x forward earnings; buying opportunity if it drops below ~$24, despite DOJ/SEC and China revenue risks.

Everyone is looking at $SMCI smuggling billions of dollars of AI chips to China.

But nobody is answering the question:

How do I make money off this, and is it a good buying opportunity?

My answer:

If $SMCI drops much lower than ~$24 overnight. It like a buying opportunity at a ~$14B MC.

Everyone looks at the DOJ case and thinks Super Micro are cooked.

But two things:

1. The company itself looks insulated, so far (not named a defendant)

2. $SMCI chip sales to China state actors was already known (just not to the $2.5B+ extent), by Hindenburg short seller reports in 2024.

So a decent part of the China revenue stuff was already priced in, which is why $SMCI crashed from $100+ and is now trading at $24.

Now if we strip away optics and some material revenue:

-> $SMCI GAAP net income was $1.05B last year, and FY 2026 is estimated to be around ~$1.25B with some estimates going to $1.5B.

And then we rip away an est ~$150M in smuggled in profit out of financials: ~$1.05 billion -> ~$900M?

On a P/E basis, still looks relatively cheap as a growing company, maybe ~10-11x?

Now the downside:

-> Optics are still trash. You can add more trash to trash.

But it's still trash regardless, doesn't change much?

-> $NVDA distancing itself with $SMCI? (They already did in 2024).
-> $SMCI not named a defendant, but in the case SEC/DOJ goes after them, then lot of regulatory fees and possibly fines.
-> Maybe order cancellations, but if they didn't cancel orders for the problems they had in 2024, it looks fine now?

Now... Are there a lot better opportunities than taking this regulatory leap of faith?

100%.

Is there potential more downside from panicking?

Yes.

But if you strip away the noise, $SMCI as a company looks cheap ~$14B at roughly 10-11x forward earnings.


$ETOR has gotta be one of the most undervalued companies on NASDAQ at this point. Forward EV/EBITDA: ~2.6x... Most are valued at 10-15x+.

Summary: Long ETOR: deeply undervalued at 2.6x EV/EBITDA vs 10-15x peers, $1.2B net cash on $2.1B MC, growing AUM 76% Y/Y.

$ETOR has gotta be one of the most undervalued companies on NASDAQ at this point.

Feels like markets just forgot about it.

$2.1B MC. Net cash $1.2B, no debt.

So you're valuing the brokerage at $900m.

Forward EV/EBITDA: ~2.6x... Most are valued at 10-15x+.

In a couple years, Etoro will have more cash than their marketcap with their existing $1.2B cash pile.

Net income per quarter (Q3) was $57 million. If you use that number growing forward... 3.9 years.

Walmart is valued at 45 P/E now.

Not to mention $ETOR is growing too. (eg. AUM 76%+ Y/Y).


Summary: Long NVDA; fundamentals (revenue, margins) override extended technicals and the stock keeps rising.

If $NVDA gives a company $100B and the MC of it is $100M off, 80% gross margins.

The stock will keep going up despite "charts looking too high".

It doesn't matter what the RSI is or if it's extended.

Majority of TA drawers do completely discount fundamentals, but there's a few I follow that actually do know what they're talking about.

@aleabitoreddit Imo when someone looks at a chart that’s been up 9 days in a row (random example) and is 25% from say its daily 20ma and is 90+ RSI and they say it’s extended, they aren’t discounting fundamentals pointing to higher prices at some point


Summary: Long SK Hynix on the dip; DRAM/NAND price hikes are tailwinds and oil/LNG import fears are overblown.

@PronologieFR Samsung just doubled NAND prices the other day, DRAM prices hiked.

imo SK Hynix looks like a terrific buy on the dip. Fears are overblown on oil/LNG imports.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think SK Hynix is a buy at this price ?


Summary: Dismisses off-grid AI power risk; data centers still route to CEG/utilities for power, supporting utilities demand.

@SnakePoops Risk is largely overstated. they still go directly to $CEG or others in $XLU to pull power directly for "off-grid". Lot of regulatory problems too.

@aleabitoreddit Risk could be that AI data centers inplement direct power generation that bypasses grid and provides power directly into data center.


Summary: Endorses bullish AXTI thesis as AI hyperscaler InP substrate bottleneck play.

Did you listen anon? - $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:

1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)

Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.

Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and https://t.co/8mqrgONJbb


It's time to start getting used to seeing this every day. Any production these photonics companies can make? -> get bought out.

Summary: Bullish AAOI and photonics companies as hyperscaler 800G orders keep coming and any production capacity gets acquired.

$AAOI receives $53M 800G order from hyperscaler for optical transceivers.

It’s time to start getting used to seeing this every day.

Any production these photonics companies can make?

-> get bought out. https://t.co/3eqwBUV8Np


Is probably the single largest beneficiary and validation from the US / Israel vs. Iran conflict... Ended up taking positions in $LASR at $3B MC

Summary: Long LASR as the only pure-play directed-energy weapons stock and known critical Iron Beam supplier, validated by live combat use against Hezbollah rockets.

$LASR Energy Directed Weapons from the Iron Beam.

Is probably the single largest beneficiary and validation from the US / Israel vs. Iran conflict.

Hezbollah Fired Rockets into Israel.

-> $LASR (Nlight) laser engine inside of Rafael's Iron Beam shot them down.

It's absolutely wild to see it in action.

Lot of defense funds will now probably be pouring into Energy Directed Weapons in the near future given validation just now.

Especially to zap down hypersonic missiles with the HELSI initiative.

There's a few large player exposure like $DRS or $RTX but there's only one $3.1B MC pure-play energy directed weapons stock.

Which also happens to be a known critical supplier for the Iron Beam.

Ended up taking positions in $LASR at $3B MC.


Summary: Holds AXTI as a long-term position rather than trading the volatility.

@jliljliljlil $AXTI moves up and down randomly 20%, I just hold it instead of trying to trade it.


Summary: Names Western-listed equities as beneficiaries of Chinese critical-mineral export controls; implicit buy signal across tungsten, indium, bismuth, tellurium, molybdenum, lithium, antimony, gallium, germanium, graphite plays.

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'

Today, all eyes are on Copper, $SLV, and $USAR after US Gov's $1.6B funding.

But ever wonder about the more silent trades you should really be watching out for?

1. Tungsten - $ALM
2. Indium - $TECK
3. Bismuth - TSE: $VNP
4. Tellurium - $VNP
5. Molybdenum - $FCX
6. Lithium  - $LAC
7. Antimony- $UAMY
8. Gallium - $AA
9. Germanium - $TECK
10. Graphite  - $SYAAF

This are the list of some of the top Chinese critical minerals/material export control chokepoints and the Western beneficiary.

Not everyday do you have foreign governments telling you what to buy.


5N Plus trades on TSX main board as VNP.TO


if you look at a much smaller sized (but more pure-play version of $IQE in Landmark), it's valued at close to 25 times IQE's current business… binary asymmetrical moonshot pick on re-rating due to $IQE's importance in the hyperscaler supply chains for photonics

Summary: Long IQE as a binary moonshot: largest epiwafer foundry at $150M vs Landmark at $3.8B; restructuring + hyperscaler photonics exposure warrants massive re-rating.

If I had to pick a 10x return-stock only after $AXTI, it would probably be $IQE.

My thought process TLDR:

- Closest comparison would be Taiwan's LandMark Optoelectronics for epiwafers. It's valued at ~$3.8B.

- $LITE <- $IQE is a known relation, and $LITE is a known supplier to $GOOGL TPUs and hyperscaler ASICs.

- IQE is the largest epiwafer foundry in the world, valued at $150M.

- Why is Landmark valued at $3.8B vs. $150M? $IQE has  -£23.5 million net debt and £18M convertible notes. And drag from legacy smartphone RF.

- Landmark is pure play for InP epiwafer and just an idea to what it could be valued at.

- So when you go look at net debt + convertibles... £41M is basically pennies? Especially to a hyperscaler supply chain.

- Landmark has 27 to 30 MOCVD reactors. IQE operates over 100.

- All $IQE needs to do is restructure (which they're doing now), selling off their drag will remove debt. And focusing on the photonics supply chain with much more capacity than their Taiwan counterparty would warrant rerating.

Basically, if you look at a much smaller sized (but more pure-play version of $IQE in Landmark), it's valued at close to 25 times IQE's current business.

The downside is you get diluted to oblivion, but the £41M feels kinda like nothing to hyperscalers?

So this is a binary asymmetrical moonshot pick on re-rating due to $IQE's importance in the hyperscaler supply chains for photonics.


Summary: Bullish memory names (Samsung, SanDisk, SK Hynix) as NAND price hike massively exceeds analyst expectations, boosting operating income projections.

"Samsung Electronics (005930) will reportedly double its NAND Flash supply price in the second quarter" - Sedaily

The price hike of NAND from Samsung (and likely $SNDK + SK Hynix following) is almost 20 times some analyst expectations and 2-4X others.

Per BNP Paribas Analyst note in March, they projected for NAND: a 5% Q/Q increase in CQ2

Per ITJungle: "The industry analysts have Q2 up over Q1 in a range of 20 percent to 50 percent, and Q3 at 5 percent to 15 percent,  with Q4 up 5 percent to 10 percent"

Macquarie's wild SK Hynix ~$190.5 billion operating income projections is starting to look a little more reasonable.

The implications for memory companies is crazy.


I genuinely believe market makers are mispricing $EWY 2028 IV as it's effectively a call option on Samsung/SK Hynix. Most OTM strikes 2 years out are now ITM in just a 2 month timeframe. If IV stays low, you can just let the calls blow past the strikes with low premiums.

Summary: Bullish EWY 2028 calls: market makers mispricing IV on memory supercycle; OTM strikes going ITM fast with low premiums.

I genuinely believe market makers are mispricing $EWY 2028 IV as it’s effectively a call option on Samsung/SK Hynix.

Not every day do you have an “non- volatile” index at 45% IV move 7% a day.

For comparison, it’s a lot more volatile than $MRVL trading at 55% IV (just comparing the two graphs)

Market makers like Jane Street are possibly pricing in mean reversion (back to the boring 5-10 year stagnant periods) that will never happen due to the memory supercycle.

Or ETF rebalancing, which just inadvertently causes more concentration into SK Hynix and Samsung through pass-through structures.

Most OTM strikes 2 years out are now ITM in just a 2 month timeframe.

And there’s a lot of unrealized future volatility as 10x leverage SK Hynix/Samsung take off or 2x leveraged ETFs.

If IV stays low, you can just let the calls blow past the strikes with low premiums.

My mind is blown on Samsung and Sk Hynix projections - $EWY?

Macquarie projects Samsung Electronics to make:

FY2026: ~$210.8 billion USD (+73% increase from prior KRW 172.1 trillion)
FY2027: ~$333.7 billion USD (+82% from KRW 260.1 trillion)

Sk Hynix:

FY2026: ~$190.5 billion https://t.co/61be2LVZIn


Summary: Long US defense names on Greenland trade tensions; bearish on NVO pharma and European luxury LVMH.

I'm a bull that's excited about Greenland trade tensions.

US defense like $UAVS and $DPRO are likely to benefit. Same with rare earth/critical materials.

Can't say the same about the pharma bulls in $NVO, European luxury like $LVMH, or possibly big tech.

As you mentioned, I agree it's just noise to the AI trade.

A lot of bears are getting excited about Trump floating new tariffs on Europe tied to Greenland but this is the same negotiation playbook he’s always used: lead with an aggressive headline, let markets wobble, then use the pressure to force talks before anything actually lands.


Can't say the same about the pharma bulls in $NVO


$AAOI is a core hold over 2026-2027... $25-30B MC projections sound surreal but that's how wild the earnings was if they hit $4.35B ARR, off 900%+ growth

Summary: Long AAOI as core hold 2026-2027 on 900%+ ARR growth to $4.35B and $25-30B MC potential; also bullish IQE and AXTI as epiwafer/upstream tailwind plays.

After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B-$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections.

And they're one of the only "Made in America"  (Sugarland, Texas) companies out of

- $LITE (global)
- $COHR (global)
- $FN (Thai)
- $AVGO (global)
- Innolight (China), and Eoptolink (China).

So they likely get that "America" premium like $INTC compared to $TSM and $MU compared to Sk Hynix.

But from revenue:
FY Revenue: $456 million
2027 ARR by : $4.536B (~900%+ growth).

Off high 30's - low 40% projected margins + hyperscaler qualifications.

This is wild. But there was a $250M ATM, but that's typically pennies compared to the projection.

This part is extremely interesting:

-> Management stated that demand and capacity for 800G, 1.6T modules could surge nearly 10x by mid-2027.

This is also a large tailwind for epiwafer companies too like $IQE and Landmark and more upstream like $AXTI.

$AAOI is a core hold over 2026-2027, but there's always execution risks if they can deliver.

$25-30B MC projections sound surreal but that's how wild the earnings was if they hit $4.35B ARR, off 900%+ growth (and photonics scale up is likely to continue even further into 2028-2029)

Holy $AAOI …

Just putting it out there they’re projecting $378 million in monthly revenue for transceivers.

At a $5.5B MC.

This is the definition of extreme scale up.

Although margins are different, $AAOI projections would actually surpass $LITE next quarter guidance by https://t.co/DGX3nIDZva


This is also a large tailwind for epiwafer companies too like $IQE


Summary: Prefers RIOT/WULF/NBIS structurally over CRWV/IREN; latter two better hedges (implying relative weakness) in sector declines.

@jorge_r006 $RIOT, $WULF, $NBIS look structurally in better positions than $CRWV and $IREN are.

Hence why the latter two serve as better hedges in sector declines.

That being said, just floating this trade idea out after doing more research, I haven't taken any positions yet.

@aleabitoreddit Riot and Wukf have been on my radar lately, is this a sign￼👀


the latter two serve as better hedges in sector declines


Summary: Long MU long term; option flow + macro headwinds explain recent selloff but fundamentals intact.

Yeah I do think $MU is going higher long term.

If I had to give a TLDR:

1. Don't buy shorted options on earnings week, since earnings is more likely than not priced in.

2. If you're going to buy options, do it before markets price in information (eg. around rumors from DRAM/NAND price hikes)

3. I don't think capex was the reason for selloff, lot of it is option flow related and then there needs to be a story for it.

4. Lot of macro headwinds too, but in general, repricing happens leading up to earnings, piecing together different information that changes fundamentals.

Earnings is just confirmation of that.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think micron going higher long term?


Summary: Bullish AEHR: moved past R&D into hyperscaler/AI production orders, a durable positive inflection.

I haven't been trading it, but it's really volatile. You did time it well considering $NVDA caused a selloff across the board.

As for, $AEHR they've finally gotten past that $POET R&D stage and hitting hyperscaler/AI company production orders this year.  So just wanted to do a tiny write-up about it.

@aleabitoreddit Yes I sold all of my AEHR yesterday, need to buy it back today, tomorrow and Monday


Summary: Bullish POET as large beneficiary of Marvell Celestial CPO ramp; projects $50-150M revenue 2027-28, re-rating likely late 2026, good risk/reward at $6.64.

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ

$MRVL released earnings. From transcript:

Targeting $500m ARR 2028, $1B ARR 2029 with Celestial CPO revenue.

$POET the $1B retail favorite interposer stock, is the large beneficiary from the ramp (Starlight light source).

Usually revenue + stockpiles start to hit ~12M-18M ahead for manufacture and shipment

-> lot of the flow will start hitting likely h2 2027.

For BOM likely est. 10-15% (speculation). So possibly ~$50-75m 2027, from Celestial alone, and $100m-$150M revenue in 2028.

Biggest risk is customer concentration, in the event $MRVL wants to dual-source its light engines.

But $POET and Celestial spent years co-developing this specific integration, so a workaround now would likely delay Marvell's 2028 commercialization timelines.

And the upside is $POET can always find more customers too.

Given $POET's solid cash balance sheet from recent dilution + rich P/S multiples for a hot industry:

Probably could see re-rating late 2026 once people frontrun h2 2027 revenue.

I think a lot of retail are typically good at finding moonshots like $RKLB, but a lot of times they're too early. My opinion is that it's the same for $POET.

It's a lot easier ride up stocks that have just hit that inflection point like $AAOI or $AEHR.

But regardless:

Risk/reward at $6.64 with a Celestial backdoor to hyperscalers seems promising if people have the patience to wait a year.

Just thought about $POET when I went through earning projections.


Probably best opportunity I've seen in awhile from the "not actually disrupted by AI" bucket

Summary: Long RDDT after -42% crash; beating estimates, 70% Y/Y growth, 35% margins, and network effect not disrupted by AI.

-41.96% crash on $RDDT for beating all estimates and growing 70% Y/Y off 35% net income margins is wild.

You can’t vibecode the network effect Reddit has. And you can’t defeat the human element for Super Bowl threads by talking with ChatGPT.

Probably best opportunity I’ve seen in awhile from the “not actually disrupted by AI” bucket.

But yeah algos go brrr

@aleabitoreddit What I find funny is that option strike only goes to 80, definitely less beta that some other names. I sold puts to keep an eye on it. Algo trading has fast and furious and irrational moves


Summary: SIVE undervalued at $200M vs pre-product LLM startups; LITE cited as bullish reference as leading laser supplier in CPO/silicon photonics growth.

@Zantetrader $SIVE is trading at $200m… Pre-product Silicon Valley LLM startups are worth 20x more than that.

$LITE as a reference point is $44B+ as the leading laser supplier in current pluggable bottlenecks.

CPO/Silicon photonics is the main growth engine past 2027.

@aleabitoreddit Is it too late for SIVE?


Summary: Bullish LITE and COHR on hyperscaler demand for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers severely outstripping supply, with biggest growth ramp expected in 2028.

Seems reasonable to me. It's expected hyperscaler demand for qualified 800G or 1.6T optical transceivers severely outstrips supply like memory.

And it's only 2026, biggest growth ramp is expected to happen 2028, which is the largest part of why $LITE, $COHR, and others are going through a repricing cycle right now

@aleabitoreddit What are the chances that management is blowing smoke up our bums


Summary: Long AXTI as a key InP substrate bottleneck play; expects photonics to ramp significantly over the next two years amid export controls, rising prices, and hyperscaler capex.

It’s been 6 weeks since I made the initial $AXTI post.

It’s now up another 60%.

Almost nobody talked about this tiny $700M stock on X.

Especially not from angles of InP supply chains with photonics.

And now it’s a $1.4B company on institution and gov radars.

Since then:

- China export control banned precursors to their competitors

- 7n InP prices hit all time highs week after week

- They raised $100M from Northland to double their capacity

- $LITE blows out earnings with expectations of optical demand outstripping supply

- Every hyperscaler blew out expectations of capex

- Trump signed executive orders to seize InP supply chains from foreign owned companies in the US.

It’s been 6 weeks. And I expect photonics to ramp up the most over the next two years onwards.

Every stock has volatility (this one moves 20%+ up and down daily) so it’s important to develop conviction by yourself before entering a trade.

But $AXTI is of my most interesting bottleneck longs starting from a tiny $700M MC.


Summary: Both Lumentum and Coherent are large beneficiaries of AI/TPU CapEx spending.

@stefano_kerope True, $LITE and $COHR are large beneficiaries from this. https://t.co/A3nxoIQ3iE

@aleabitoreddit Strongly bullish on $LITE. Per recent Mizuho analysis, Lumentum captures a massive 8-12% of every dollar spent on TPU CapEx. While the NVIDIA GPU split is more competitive at ~2-3%


Summary: Expects HIMS short squeeze on NVO partnership news; stock up 37% AH and heavily shorted.

Congrats to the $HIMS holders, stock back up 37% after hours.

It looks like $NVO dropped the lawsuit and partnered with $HIMS to sell NOVO branded GLP-1s.

Given HIMS was once trading at $70 and became one of the most shorted stocks.

Would not be surprised to see a short squeeze off the positive news.


Summary: Long MU: structural demand shift, sold out through 2027, US tariffs/grants/tax credits vs Hynix/Samsung give Micron durable domestic supply-chain edge.

So this is just an oversimplified bull case scenario for $MU.

There's obviously bear cases too, one being HBM4 qualification  execution risk for stuff like $NVDA Rubin that @MarkosAAIG mentioned.

Similar thesis with $INTC here, Micron is in the US.

US government likely tarrifs on hynix/samsung to push for domestic  usage, $6B+ in grants, and tens of billions in tax credits, and  hyperscalers wanting a domestic supply chain gives Micron a pretty big  edge even if there's delays.

As with the demand side, they're sold out for 2026 and into 2027. I see a structural demand shift, not a cycle this time around, people can interpret it differently though.

@aleabitoreddit The 20 fwd P/E logic is widely cited by bulls.

But to assign a critical infra PE to Micron you're basically assuming infinite demand that can not be met by the big three through 2030, despite nearly $60B on capex just this year between them

In every past cycle, Micron's fwd PE


$PLTR has extreme premiums with more than triple digit forward p/e... the biggest risk factor I see that people aren't factoring in is administration shift to Democrats in 4 year cycles... that 'insider premium' for gov contracts that Tesla and $PLTR have might disappear

Summary: Bearish PLTR: triple-digit forward P/E unjustified given risk of Democratic administration shift wiping out insider gov-contract premium.

$PLTR has extreme premiums with more than triple digit forward p/e. It would make a little bit more sense if they can keep compounding like that under a Trump administration.

But the biggest risk factor I see that people aren't factoring in is administration shift to Democrats in 4 year cycles.

Palantir was the core "Trump Election" trade few years back alongside $TSLA and Bitcoin.

But if the administration shifts with the CEO being an outspoken critic of democrats, then that "insider premium" for gov contracts that Tesla and $PLTR have might disappear.

@aleabitoreddit What’s your view on Palantir?


Summary: High-conviction longs AAOI and LITE on optical transceiver supercycle; COHR as implied beneficiary if AAOI buys from them.

If you're new to $AAOI:

It looks scary entering positions near ATH at $109 after a 175% YTD increase.

However, this looks like the photonics equivalent of $SNDK.

And it so happens the center of the optical transceiver supercycle...

At a $8.2B valuation we can look at projections:

(est. Capacity * ASP Projections)
Q2 2026: ~$312.1M
Q4 2026: ~$1.41B
Q2-2027: ~$1.53B
Q4-2027: ~$1.97B

If $AAOI ends up leapfrogging the $55B $LITE in revenue...

$8B MC looks a little absurd for revenue growth off 30-40% margins…

Re-rating potential is enormous.

Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR.

Is  it ends up a Made in America Innolight / Eoptolink (Both $66B-$90B+ Chinese companies)?

The optionality of making the entire supply chain in America is understated.

$AAOI is one of my few high conviction longs aside from $SIVE and $LITE if they can deliver on projections.


$LITE if they can deliver on projections


Worst case scenario if they fail internal laser fab and buys off $COHR


Big fan of $SNDK. Ssds and later hbf reminds me of initial buildout where everyone was fighting to stack Nvidia GPUs. Growth trajectory is probably the highest out of any memory play, think they're double digit forward p/e in 2026 but goes down to like 6.5 or so in 2027. It's cheaper than ever post earnings.

Summary: Bullish on SNDK as fastest-growing memory play with compressing P/E (6.5x by 2027); also cites SK Hynix as most undervalued and MU as safest memory name.

Imo most undervalued = SK Hynix, fastest growth = $SNDK, safest = $MU, Samsung

Big fan of $SNDK. Ssds and later hbf reminds me of initial buildout where everyone was fighting to stack Nvidia GPUs.

This feels like dejavu. Growth trajectory is probably the highest out of any memory play, think they’re double digit forward p/e in 2026 but goes down to like 6.5 or so in 2027.

It’s cheaper than ever post earnings.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think about $SNDK?


$IQE is InP epiwafer and refactoring reactors from legacy drag to photonic supply chains... those two are my favorites right now

Summary: Long SIVE/SIVEF and IQE as low-cap photonics plays embedded in hyperscaler silicon-photonics supply chains.

$SIVE / $SIVEF and $IQE.

Sivers makes laser arrays and cw dfb lasers for cpo/silicon photonics. And is embedded into hyperscaler supply chains like $AMZN and $MSFT clusters as the light source from captive models like $MRVL celestial from $POET and merchant models from Ayar.

Then they’re up capacity through win qualification, so they don’t burn as much capex scaling in house.

$IQE is InP epiwafer and refactoring reactors from legacy drag to photonic supply chains. They’re already a known $LITE supplier and the other biggest one is Landmark sitting around ~$4B (with less latent capacity).

This is basically the equivalent of $IREN or $RIOT turning their Bitcoin miners into HPC, but for photonics.

There’s a decent amount of debt, but this is more of a guess that their Taiwan sales will go through and management will pivot toward InP production for rerating.

So those two are my favorites right now

@aleabitoreddit So if you were to buy two low cap tickers right now which ones would they be and why?


Summary: IREN: tactical wait-for-dilution then go long; but won't outperform RIOT/NBIS/WULF by 2027.

Messed up my original $RIOT YTD calculations so ended up deleting my post. But, it was a 3-6M short term trade idea capitalizing off $IREN ATM on existing shareholders.

I do think $IREN performs well long term if they manage to fill up the ATM since it's much better than debt interest that $CRWV does. But it's at the cost of current holders.

The better way to go long with $IREN is to wait until existing shareholders get diluted first then go long after.

That being said, I don't think $IREN will outperform all three in 2027.

@aleabitoreddit @Jacktecau990 Dilutive to book but accretive to eps. Bad for 3 month holders great for 1 year+ holders.

Have you tried modeling it based off Microsoft deal terms? Those assumptions would be worst case because $/KWh/month is only increasing and not decreasing.

Bullish on Riot NBIS and WULF


I don't think $IREN will outperform all three in 2027


Summary: Long Soitec as the substrate-materials play on silicon-photonics AI architectures, attracting heavy hyperscaler investment.

C'est vraiment $SOI que je préfère, principalement en raison de son rôle majeur dans la photonique.

Les nouvelles architectures d'intelligence artificielle basées sur la photonique sur silicium finissent toutes par utiliser les matériaux de substrat de Soitec, d'où le vif intérêt qu'elle suscite récemment.

J'investis de manière plutôt thématique dans des secteurs où de nombreux « hyperscalers » comme $GOOGL, $NVDA et d'autres ont injecté massivement de l'argent, et ces deux secteurs sont la photonique et la mémoire.

J'ai jeté un petit coup d'œil à Viridien, mais je ne pense pas que les données terrestres, les géosciences et la détection soient mes domaines d'expertise. Je ne me sens donc pas qualifié pour donner un bon avis directionnel.

Mais j'apprécie que vous ayez pris le temps de traduire du français vers l'anglais pour poser une question.

@aleabitoreddit @Jacktecau990 Hello, I am a Soitec shareholder and I firmly believe in the company, just like you. If I may ask, what are your thoughts on Viridien stock (formerly CGG)? Thank you. Sorry if m’y tralater is bad (îm French)


Summary: Bullish AXTI as a bottleneck play on InP substrates for AI hyperscaler buildout; author touts prior thesis.

Hope you listened to my $AXTI thesis anon? https://t.co/d5eg0BIhlG


SK Hynix makes $400b in operating profit in a bull case by 2028. And their MC is $400B. There's probably quite a way to go for re-rating

Summary: Long memory names broadly and SK Hynix specifically; structural demand keeps margins high and SK Hynix deserves significant re-rating toward $400B operating profit bull case by 2028.

Yes, memory names are incredibly bullish due to record operating profits.

Well if SK Hynix makes $400b in operating profit in a bull case by 2028. And their MC is $400B. There’s probably quite a way to go for re-rating.

Markets aren’t giving a premium because they fear memory prices are a commodity cycle, but I disagree since demand is now structural.

Pricing isn’t, but margins are likely to remain high.

@aleabitoreddit Are you still bullish memory names? whats the upside from here?


memory names are incredibly bullish due to record operating profits

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung


my favorite is $LEU since they're the best one by default (as the only one that can currently produce HALEU, which is a bottleneck)

Summary: Long LEU as the sole HALEU producer, making it the default best nuclear stock by eliminating competition.

@stocktalkweekly Wow nice! I agree, my favorite is $LEU since they’re the best one by default (as the only one that can currently produce HALEU, which is a bottleneck)

@aleabitoreddit Best nuclear stock on the market. Long since last May at $96. Haven’t sold a share. Up +230% on stock 🍻 https://t.co/tZ3kRsppqt


$RMBS is a good shout, I have positions in it. Reminds me of $ARM but for HBM... Id expect it to get rerated as well over this year

Summary: Long RMBS; held position, ARM-like HBM licensing model with high gross margins, expects re-rating over the year.

$RMBS is a good shout, I have positions in it.

Reminds me of $ARM but for HBM, pretty nonexistent in retail eyes.

It doesn’t get the same pricing power like $MU but all its licenses to sk Hynix, Samsung, and micron should pay dividends. Gross margins are crazy high

Id expect it to get rerated as well over this year

@aleabitoreddit how about $RMBS which hasn't really run much


Summary: Hold/long optical photonics names (AAOI, LITE) through war-driven volatility; capacity maxed before ramp, hyperscaler capex unbroken.

Sentiment (eg. War/Oil/LNG) dictates short term prices, fundamentals dictate prices in the long run.

I see zero slowdown from the hyperscaler capex that matters ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN, etc).

And before the ramp for optical all their capacity from $AAOI to $LITE are already maxed out before price hikes.

This is the definition of an upcoming bottleneck when new AI cluster architectures use photonics to scale.

If there's been nothing breaking the fundamentals of any of these companies, probably better to hold through short term volatility.

@aleabitoreddit Are you planning on holding through the war or going to do any trimming? Photonics getting killed rn


all their capacity from $AAOI to $LITE are already maxed out before price hikes. This is the definition of an upcoming bottleneck


Summary: Sees Unity's -30% drop as an entry signal; also bullish Figma as AI augments rather than replaces its design workflow.

I’ve been following $U since looking at 4D physical AI + World Models supply chains.

Don’t think they’re purely gaming related. I think the -30% drop is the world telling me to enter some positions.

And agreed. With others like $FIG, AI just helps translate the Figma designs into stuff like HTML/CSS/JS rather than replacing it.

@aleabitoreddit Following $U has been very interesting.

I think the market views AI gaming models as anathema for $U and other software gaming companies.

But if these companies adopt the tech, they can churn out far more games.

The narrative has to break somewhere


With others like $FIG, AI just helps translate the Figma designs into stuff like HTML/CSS/JS rather than replacing it


Summary: AI capex surge by hyperscalers transfers balance sheets to Nvidia, Samsung, SK Hynix, TSMC, and Broadcom as clear winners of the buildout.

The richest companies in the world are going into debt for the AI buildout.

Despite hundreds of billions in net income, companies from $AMZN to $GOOGL have increased capex so much:

That some are projected to be net negative cash in 2026.

Here are the results and who profits:

Amazon ( $AMZN )
2025: +$46.0 billion
2026 (Est): +$11.0 billion

Alphabet ( $GOOGL )
2025: +$80.3 billion
2026 (Est): +$13.0 billion

Meta Platforms ( $META ) - Net Debt
2025: +$22.9 billion
2026 (Est): -$7.0 billion (Expected to swing into Net Debt)

Microsoft ( $MSFT )
2025: +$49.2 billion
2026 (Est): +$59.0 billion

Oracle ( $ORCL )
2025: -$98.0 billion (Net Debt)
2026 (Est): -$115.0 billion

Microsoft appears to be in the safest position. While Amazon and Google have been largely funding the AI buildout with operating income.

However, that large cashflow buffer has vanished.  Oracle and Meta appear to be in debt to fuel the buildout, despite $META achieving staggering operating income numbers.

Now, where does the money flow into?

Operating Income Projections:

1. $NVDA - USA
$135.0B -> $186.5B -> $240.1 Billion Operating Income

2. Samsung - Korea
~$30.2B -> ~$170B -> ~$226.7 Billion

3. SK Hynix - Korea
~$32.7B -> ~$124B -> ~$161.0 Billion

4. $TSM - Taiwan
~$62.2B -> ~$86.3B - ~$103.3B – $105.3 Billion

5. $AVGO - America
~$41.5B -> ~$62.8B-$65.1B - ~$84.7B-$93.3B

Of course, these are rough estimates based on analyst projections.

However, from the general trend, this looks like a leveraged bet that the AI buildout will pay off dividends in FCF after they're finished.

But the clear winners appear to be Nvidia, Samsung, SK Hynix, Broadcom, and TSMC.

This comes as hyperscalers, with some going into debt, transfer over their balance sheets to them, expecting a long term ROI from their AI spend.


今後の $NBIS には強い確信を持ってる

Summary: 強い確信をもってNBISの上昇を予想。METAから270億ドルの巨額AI支出契約獲得が根拠。

@yasutaketin $META からとんでもない巨額契約がきた！元々は30億ドルだったけど、なんと270億ドルに増額。

今後の $NBIS には強い確信を持ってる。

速報： $META が $NBIS と累計270億ドルという巨額のAI支出契約を締結しました。
Nebiusは、私がネオクラウドAIインフラ・データセンター関連で最も注目していた銘柄でした。
経営陣が年間経常収益（ARR）70億〜90億ドルの目標達成に向けて実行に移していることを嬉しく思います。


Don't quite think so with niche upstream suppliers like $SOI and $TSEM

Summary: Niche upstream suppliers TSEM and SOI not priced in (bullish); LITE and COHR likely priced in (bearish).

“Priced in”. Meanwhile $TSEM is chilling at -1.89% YTD.

Lot of retail are earlier than institutions. $AXTI was the perfect example before it went up 4x in the past three months.

Don’t quite think so with niche upstream suppliers like $SOI and $TSEM but likely yes to $LITE and $COHR

@aleabitoreddit Can it be sell the news, or is it not priced in yet?


Summary: Prefers WULF and CIFR over IREN as power/AI data center plays; both have Google agreements and no dilution overhang.

@eddyluxe_ If there’s a demand for power, might be a better idea to long $WULF or $CIFR that have agreements with Google.

It comes without a $6B new share dilution, and all that selling pressure against you in any rallies.

@aleabitoreddit I'm outta IREN for now, but this seems overly bearish.

There is still real demand for power and they are one of the few AI data centers who are executing well and have gigawatts, with more in development.

If the market believes a deal is coming, we'll likely see another nice


Summary: Long RDDT as a pick among stocks oversold on AI-disruption fears; network-effect moat misunderstood by market.

I don’t know enough about $APP to comment.

That being said I’ve been looking for stocks sold off partly because of “AI” disruption narratives and $RDDT is personally my choice.

Markets misunderstand network effect moat. I can make Reddit in a day but value comes from everyone agreeing to use it.

@aleabitoreddit "You can't disrupt Reddit by vibecoding it with Opus 4.6 and Cursor, because the main point of it is network effect."
💯

Do you think the same applies for $APP?


Summary: Bought SNDK on a 7.8% dip the author views as unrelated to Samsung HBM4 news.

Let’s keep it a secret from reporters that Samsung HBM4 has nothing to do with $SNDK.

“The [Sandisk] pullback came after reports that Samsung plans to begin mass production of HBM4 memory chips later this month.”

Ended up buying the 7.8% drop today. https://t.co/22T8dZpLJ7


Summary: Bullish AXTI: controls InP feedstock/refinery bottleneck, making it inherently valuable upstream of wafer production.

@AlphaAllegro There’s two different bottlenecks. One is feedstock/refineries that $AXTI controls.

And then is InP substrate production…

If you can’t get the materials, you can’t make the wafers. Which is why AXT is inherently super valuable

@aleabitoreddit im surprised your not more interested in NOK given their InP biz in the US...    js-


Summary: Long AVAV; author added on the dip, viewing 17% selloff as unwarranted after contract renegotiation to long-term volume deal.

I mean this is the $CRDO Amazon wire incident equivalent. But in the Defense sector.

Be $AVAV:

-> Renegotiates contract from R&D type to long term volume contract.
-> Media: "Oh no the fancy Scar program got halted"
-> Sells off 17% for no reason.

up to you though, I personally added since I thought this selloff was stupid.

@aleabitoreddit I have been debating whether to add to my position on this dip.  I already have a decent allocation and lots of green behind me on it. Hard call, it ran up so fast recently.


Long OTM calls is effectively calls on Sk Hynix/Samsung at 44% IV... Vega expansion on 2028 OTM calls if they go from 44% to 65%+ would increase option values from volatility expansion alone... This is a volatility expansion trade coupled with the added benefit of long SK Hynix/Samsung during the memory, robotics, foundry supercycles for the next two years.

Summary: Long EWY 2028 OTM calls for vega expansion (44%→65%+ IV) plus directional upside on Samsung/SK Hynix through memory/robotics/foundry supercycles.

2028 IV for $EWY will likely go much higher (~44% right now).

Realized should be priced around ~65-68%+.

So, 2028 OTM leap call value may double again from volatility Vega Expansion alone.

Most people don’t this but top holdings include:

1. SK Square (#5 concentration).  90% of their NAV is SK Hynix.

2. Samsung Life Insurance, NAV as one of the largest shareholders of Samsung Electronics.

3. Samsung C&T (large part of $EWY) owns ~5% of Samsung as its NAV.

4. Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance: 1.49% stake in Samsung Electronics (given how big Samsung Electronics is, it makes up a large part of NAV)

5. Samsung C&T -> owns Samsung Life (which indirectly owns Samsung Electronics)

6. Samsung Electro-Mechanics / Samsung SDS -> Largely tethered to Samsung Electronics Capex cycles.

7. Samsung Electronics Preferred Shares - Non-voting preferred shares are treated as separate entities, but increases in weighting.

Pass through concentration of SK Hynix and Samsung weightings is significantly higher than algorithms and markets think.

And you see that realized, as Indexes with broad diversification don’t go up and down 6% a day depending on Samsung/Sk Hynix performance. Or 42% in 2 months... or 145% in 12 months...

If the ETF rebalances quarterly, you get more weighting into more volatile names like SK Hynix  and the weighting of smaller owners that own Samsung and SK Hynix as NAV go up more than others.

This is compounded with unrealized volatility that MMs have not priced in yet from:

- 10x Leverage Samsung / Sk Hynix perps now.
- 2x leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix ETFs approvals and release soon.

Dynamically hedging both of these will increase volatility on Samsung + SK Hynix and by second order effect -> $EWY.

So, it's not a joke when you say its SK Index is basically Samsung and Sk Hynix.

And that 44% IV pricing comes from the flat 10 year Korean index.

When the new volatility from the memory supercycle is structural.

TLDR:

- Long OTM calls is effectively calls on Sk Hynix/Samsung at 44% IV.

- Individually they likely sit around 73-88%.

- When you account for other names, realized IV may sit in the mid 60's.

- Vega expansion on 2028 OTM calls if they go from 44% to 65%+ would increase option values from volatility expansion alone.

- There are genuine inefficiencies with the markets sometimes and this looks like one of them.

This is a volatility expansion trade coupled with the added benefit of long SK Hynix/Samsung during the memory, robotics, foundry supercycles for the next two years.

Probably up there with my most legendary calls to date?

Your portfolio would have doubled in a week off IV expansion alone.

Hope you listened anon - $EWY.

IV: 32% -> 44.7% and still going. https://t.co/UPAzgzKsfx


Summary: Prefers NBIS and AAOI over IREN in the same sector; IREN better after dilution-driven re-entry.

Much better opportunities out than $IREN.

If you want the same sector, $NBIS is objectively better when you look at how they finance capex ( $NVDA $2B funding )…

Then there’s others like $AAOI that leapfrogs $IREN revenue + profit, with less capex.

But if you still want to hold $IREN, probably better to re-enter after everyone gets diluted to fund their buildout and reap the rewards after.

@aleabitoreddit I plead guilty as charged. But as long term investment?


$NBIS is objectively better when you look at how they finance capex


$AAOI that leapfrogs $IREN revenue + profit, with less capex


Don't think sum of parts is priced in properly but I'd expect Nebius to be rerated after their silent buildout phase ends and they start turning capex to fcf

Summary: Long NBIS: sum-of-parts undervalued across 5 business lines; expects rerating as buildout phase ends and capex converts to FCF by ~Feb 2027.

$NBIS is my actually favorite Neocloud out of the bunch. It’s really nuanced but they actually are basically 5 different companies all scaling triple digits y/y.

Biggest fan of their robotaxi division working with $UBER and Clickhouse would likely command higher valuations in the future than $15B (they own ~1/4th).

This is on top of their DC business expected to come online and bring ~$7-9B ARR by Feb 2027 report.

Don’t think sum of parts is priced in properly but I’d expect Nebius to be rerated after their silent buildout phase ends and they start turning capex to fcf

@aleabitoreddit Long NVDA, short basket of CRWV, NBIS and IREN.


$TSEM is high conviction long term, I'm personally comfortable holding over two years and just forgetting about it

Summary: High-conviction long TSEM; comfortable holding 2+ years.

@Kevin1151268 LOL, pls don’t full port it into names I mention.

That being said $TSEM is high conviction long term, I’m personally comfortable holding over two years and just forgetting about it.

That’s probably a better strategy imo

@aleabitoreddit I invested all my money in it. Should I sell? What's your price target?？ https://t.co/jt4aO6wBfh


Summary: Price target analysis for optical networking names: FN ~$20B MC, LITE ~$47B MC, AAOI ~$13B MC target, SIVE at least ~$1B MC.

For design/assembly
Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC:  ~$5.3B revenue
Innolight (China): ~$84B MC  ~$11B revenue

$FN for low margin assembly ~$20B MC, ~$4B projected revenue.

For lasers/transceiver:
$LITE ~$47B MC: ~$3B+ EOY 2026.

Then you have $AAOI, $375M/month for laser/design/assembly supply chain, ~$4.5B ARR target + growth.

Maybe ~$13B sounds reasonable since it hasn't hit those numbers yet. It's discretionary.

As for $SIVE, you can just look at CPO ramp and just take a guess.

Usually advanced packaging companies (at least in current cycles), have around the less valuation as their laser counterparts (Unless they do design).

$SIVE supplies lasers to $POET/Ayar both of which are $1-$3B+ valuations.

So $SIVE at least should be ~$1B low end.

This is just comparing similar company valuation/revenue projections, then making an estimate.

@aleabitoreddit How do you make your price target calculations?


$AAOI, $375M/month for laser/design/assembly supply chain, ~$4.5B ARR target + growth. Maybe ~$13B sounds reasonable


There's two very aquatic warfare stocks I found interesting for exposure. $KRKNF the Squid and $CODA the Octopus.

Summary: Long KRKNF and CODA as pure-play aquatic/underwater warfare stocks benefiting from Iran mining Strait of Hormuz and potential sector re-rating.

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'

Just in 10M ago from Reuters:

New confirmation from sources that Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

There's two very aquatic warfare stocks I found interesting for exposure.

$KRKNF the Squid🦑and $CODA the Octopus.

$KRKNF: Kraken Robotics, the Andruil supplier, is one of the more pure play stocks for the acquatic warfare sector:

They build Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) and SeaPower batteries that many defense primes like Andruil rely on.

Anduril recently opened a facility in Rhode Island to mass produce UUVs (eg. Dive-LD and Ghost Shark).

According to retail BOM estimates:
- Dive-LD carries $1M to $2M CAD in Kraken hardware
- Ghost Shark XL-AUV carries $8M to $10M CAD.

If that Anduril ramps happens: the revenue ramp is there.

I wouldn't try and model Kraken based off revenue projections but more like how much Andruil scales (similar modeling $LITE based on $GOOGL TPU)

But financials, assets: $301.5M, Liabilities: $65.7M, Total debt: ~$24.1M so looks pretty healthy. 60% YoY revenue growth off 59% gross margins.

As for demining the strait, they have the KATFISH mine-hunting drone. And SAS Sonar for 3D images of the seafloor for identifying buried mines.

$CODA: Coda Octopus, basically pure play exposure to Iran placing mines.

Their main product is Echoscope real-time 3D/4D/5D volumetric sonar that maps static and moving objects in murky, pitch-black water.

This carries forward to other products like "NANO Gen Series", Echoscope version as a perception sensor for UUVs.

And then a diver augmented display (that SPECWAR ordered), which is basically the Echoscope sonar feeding people data.

CODA has an amazing balance sheet. Recent FY2025 report (ending Oct 2025), they hold $28.7 million in pure cash and have zero long-term debt.

Gross margins are extremely high as well, consolidated gross margin of 66.5% while majority of defense contracotrs sit around 10-20%.

$26.6M revenue for 2025, 30.7% Y/Y increase, and $4.1M net income, which is rare to be profitable.

But basically their product set of sonar / detection looks perfect pure play for this exact scenario and they’re fundamentally very sound, without the catalyst.

Regardless, Iran mining the straight isn't exactly a major TAM increase.

However, it does alert investors and the government that warfare may transition underwater:

Leading to more sector inflows as well as defense contract opportunities.

These were my two favorites personally, just publishing my thoughts here in case other's find this helpful.


$CODA: Coda Octopus, basically pure play exposure to Iran placing mines. Their main product is Echoscope real-time 3D/4D/5D volumetric sonar... fundamentally very sound


Summary: Long VPG on robotics inflection; $2.5-4B revenue ramp to 2028/2029 implies massive valuation expansion.

A lot of people model $VPG based on Y/Y revenue, but underestimate inflection point for robotics.

$2.5-$4B revenue ramp from current levels presents pretty high upside and great exposure to robotics ramp.

But it's already a pretty well known stock by institutions, I think Citron and others likely just got timing off since they were months or years ahead of time.

@aleabitoreddit Also top of my radar. Did work on it this weekend and agree that this has a chance for a massive valuation expansion. I modeled $2.5B - $4B by 2028/2029 if robotics market expands as expected.


Summary: If Musk wins vs OpenAI, MSFT, ORCL, CRWV, APLD, CORZ face contagion risk as OpenAI-levered names; author sees this as most likely outcome (59% odds).

Breaking: Elon Musk has sued OpenAI for $134 Billion.

Prediction markets have priced the odds of Elon winning at 59% as of today.

This may be alarming.

If OpenAI loses this:

Markets may trigger a contagion across the AI ecosystem tied to OpenAI.

$AMD or $CRWV and companies like $ORCL (Stargate) to $MSFT are massive losers as they're heavily levered to OpenAI.

Then there's third order effects on companies as $APLD and $CORZ involved to Coreweave.

Same goes with $AMD partners, such as $RIOT.

 For example:

1. Microsoft / Oracle -> Write down billions in investment, buildout + GPU utilization lag would cost billions

2. CoreWeave -> Massive risk to backlog revenue, utilization lag + already at risk due to massive debt interest

3. APLD / CORZ -> Depend on Coreweave for revenue, if the tenant goes down, so does their near term revenue.

If OpenAI are forced to pay massive damages, return to a strict non-profit status, or declare bankruptcy due to liquidity crises (and cannot fulfill its contractual obligations):

This might trigger a contagion event across many AI sector names tied to OpenAI.

Of course this is the worst case scenario.

My expectation is middle ground:

-> Musk wins the trial (or forces a settlement just before the verdict).

-> OpenAI is forced to pay a massive fine (e.g., $10B–$20B) and possibly open-source its older models

-> $MSFT likely steps in to pay the fine or restructure the debt since there's too much at stake.

Or in the 41% chance Musk loses: nothing happens, and companies tied to OpenAI will be fine.

However it looks markets already priced in a lot of that uncertainty with OpenAI contagion risk with Oracle ($330 -> $195) and Coreweave ($150 -> $101).

This lawsuit is definitely one of the biggest events markets are watching.


$AMD or $CRWV and companies like $ORCL (Stargate) to $MSFT are massive losers as they're heavily levered to OpenAI


CoreWeave -> Massive risk to backlog revenue, utilization lag + already at risk due to massive debt interest


APLD / CORZ -> Depend on Coreweave for revenue, if the tenant goes down, so does their near term revenue


Summary: Bullish HIMS on latent revenue monetization from global user network capture; uses HOOD and META as comps for the same monetization trajectory.

Feels like people aren't articulating the bull case for $HIMS correctly:

Here's my view.

The main moat of $HIMS is network capture of retail audiences.

And the bull case is latent revenue monetization.

$HOOD achieved that same effect in fintech over 2025.

$META (fully grown) achieved that same effect in the social media sector over the past decade.

$HIMS is now at the starting point in 2026.

But given millions of new users across the globe (Europe, Australia, Japan, Canada) from Zava + Eucalyptus:

$HIMS now has that one-of-a-kind retail audience capture in the healthcare sector.

However, the difference between ~$70B companies in Robinhood and $1.6T giants in $META is that:

They've already successfully monetized their retail audiences both through margin optimization, and new revenue streams.

And very aggressively. $HIMS has not yet.

Robinhood did so by pushing new products from banking/credit cards/prediction markets/etc.

And they are all now independently generating $100m+ each as new revenue streams.

$META did so by capturing the maximum amount of revenue per user after acquiring WhatsApp/Instagram.

However, $HIMS has not gotten the chance to yet in the same way they did with the US (eg. Testosterone). Especially partially due to former lawsuits.

Now that's cleared up, the bull case can be seen again:

Instead of modeling what revenue Zava/Eucalyptus traditionally brought, the important thing to look at is retail network capture through # of people.

As this is biggest source of latent revenue + revenue projection beats not priced in.

Now, the billion dollar question is:

Will $HIMS end up like $HOOD?

$HIMS now has the one of the largest retail networks + distribution for healthcare.

However, cross-selling seems much harder in healthcare vs. fintech or social media channels.

The answer whether it ends up a $30B company or a $5B one is up for management to figure out.

So for people on the sideline, it might be worth flipping long again in the off-chance $HIMS manages to figure out latent revenue expansion from their new global userbase.

The ~40%+ short interest and the new $NVO partnership serves as a huge bonus as well.


$HOOD achieved that same effect in fintech over 2025


$META (fully grown) achieved that same effect in the social media sector over the past decade


Summary: Holding CVX longs with 18-22% IV seen as good upside; ongoing position from Venezuela invasion thesis.

Haven’t looked into $WTI, unfortunately oil is not my area of expertise. But if I do expect the sector to go up going index directional longs like $XLE are much easier.

I have been chilling in $CVX longs though from my Venezuela invasion post. 18-22% IV presents pretty good upside.

@aleabitoreddit $WTI for oil? Massive call flows observed for $3 strikes expiring this week actually


Summary: Actively cost-averaging into CRCL despite near-term headwinds; still holds NBIS with cost avg in 90s.

For me it's an amazing long, I actually lost a lot on $CRCL so I'm cost averaging down. $NBIS my cost average was in the 90's so not really much pain there.

Only things that have changed is $CRCL faces near term headwinds with 2-3 rate cuts.

And the biggest thing is CLARITY Act which bans exchanges related to stablecoins like Coinbase from giving interest on top (because it competes with banks, which is just so, so stupid. I can't believe it's actually a thing that's likely to be passed ~57% on prediction markets).

That being said, added USDC supply would offset interest income losses, and stablecoins should be great going forward over the next few years.

@aleabitoreddit What about $crcl? Thesis still hold? ‘Extraordinarily long’ at $84 not feeling so good right now. And nbis at 120 also hurting. This isn’t to be nasty, truly appreciate your insights, but losing conviction and wondering about your thoughts


$NBIS my cost average was in the 90's so not really much pain there


Summary: Long LITE (tied to Google TPU), long AAOI (multi-x potential), long COHR as safest capital-parking option.

Depends on your risk profile. I really, really like $LITE, likely going higher as it's tethered to $GOOGL TPU program.

$AAOI just has more potential for multi-x return given MC size and extreme revenue ramp, just wanted to try and find the next $LITE.

I do think $COHR is probably the safest, if I were to be parking capital + making it the largest position.

@aleabitoreddit would u recommend selling $LITE and placing proceeds in $AAOI instead? $CRDO is a bigger position  in my portfolio


$AAOI just has more potential for multi-x return given MC size and extreme revenue ramp


$COHR is probably the safest, if I were to be parking capital + making it the largest position


Summary: Long AEHR; sees hyperscaler demand inflection point approaching, supported by recent order flow.

@soup19152116 I've covered $AEHR already and I'm long since I do think they be close to hitting their $AAOI-type hyperscaler demand inflection point.

There were streams of different orders past two to three months, think it's promising.

@aleabitoreddit great list, I'm also thinking of relonging $AEHR. could I get your thoughts?


Leading photonic names do not concern itself with Crude Oil prices spiking. Photonics is the next paradigm of AI, the War in Iran doesn't change that.

Summary: Bullish photonic names AXTI, AAOI, LITE, COHR as the next AI paradigm, insulated from oil/Iran geopolitical risk.

Leading photonic names do not concern itself with Crude Oil prices spiking.

$AXTI +14.13%
$AAOI +6.73%
$LITE +10.22%
$COHR +3.39%

Photonics is the next paradigm of AI, the War in Iran doesn’t change that. https://t.co/Xznwa2VDuT


Summary: Explicitly long HIMS on untapped DTC distribution moat, global acquisitions, and short squeeze potential from NVO partnership.

$HIMS is now back up 14.22%.

The untapped latent revenue from their their global DTC retail distribution moat is extreme.

And draws parallels to the early acquisitions from $META.

As well as the cross-selling capabilities of $HOOD.

$HIMS is still down from it's $70+ highs, after acquiring three major global competitors without regulatory friction.

And best of yet:

Shorts that sold 40%+ of the company short directionally, are completely trapped from the surprising $NVO partnership + lawsuit termination.

I would personally hold and go long here on HIMS.

The risk/reward on management effectively monetizing that massive, global retail distribution network for healthcare seems worth it.

Feels like people aren't articulating the bull case for $HIMS correctly:

Here's my view.

The main moat of $HIMS is network capture of retail audiences.

And the bull case is latent revenue monetization.

$HOOD achieved that same effect in fintech over 2025.

$META (fully https://t.co/LGmgQFcam0


Summary: Still holding AXTI with 604% unrealized gains; ongoing long position.

@marv_jones6 @BonyBallf2 Yeah I’m sitting on 604% unrealized gains for $AXTI… so hard to notice this stock “down a lot” according to the commenter.

Still holding https://t.co/zhGXaYkeTZ

@aleabitoreddit @BonyBallf2 Still long $AXTI for now after a parabolic run?


Summary: Bullish pluggable optical names LITE, COHR on booked hyperscaler demand through 2028; TSEM cheap at ~20x fwd P/E with 70% capacity booked.

I wouldn't say it's speculative. Hyperscalers have orders completely booked until 2028 from $LITE to $COHR.

Even $TSEM has 70% of their capacity booked and it's low fwd ~20 P/E 2028.

CW/CPO more speculative for photonics, not the pluggable optical transceivers cycle. But compared to memory/GPUs, makes snse.

But think everyones looking at photonics bottlenecks right low like pcb, which is funny

hot ball of capital went from GPUs -> Memory -> Photonics. GPUs have rolled over, Memory is rolling over ($MU post earnings) .... photonics next? Photonics also happens to be the most speculative of the bunch


$TSEM has 70% of their capacity booked and it's low fwd ~20 P/E 2028


I don't quite think it's been priced in yet considering forward p/e for 2026 is projected to be ~4.5

Summary: Long SK Hynix; forward P/E ~4.5x for 2026 not yet priced in, author argues upside remains.

@ChiefLiquidity The next Hynix.. is SK Hynix.

I don’t quite think it’s been priced in yet considering forward p/e for 2026 is projected to be ~4.5.

@aleabitoreddit Hynix was also a turnaround play not so long ago. Everyone's finding the next hynix.


Summary: Author expects ATHs in photonics after this week's corrections in LITE and AAOI.

@FuckElon54528 Photonics just had major red days this week, $LITE crashed to $550 and $AAOI dipped to $83.

When corrections happen like that it usually leads to ATHs after

@aleabitoreddit dude, wait for photonic red days, dnot speak too early. it will come :(


Summary: Bullish XLU; power/grid remains a bottleneck into 2028, no urgency to enter but a real trade idea.

@Trylanol I don't think this is a trade that requires much urgency tbh, $XLU moves like a dinosaur. This is just one trade idea of many!

Probably could enter this like half a year later too if you decide for yourself. Power/grid is likely a bottleneck going into 2028 as well.

@aleabitoreddit I’d be a fool to ignore an AleaBito trade idea. Jumping on this Monday! Or maybe I should wait for another crudely drawn chart via Reddit post 😂


Summary: SIVE expects massive re-rating on Jabil design-win; JBL is a key optical transceiver player for hyperscalers.

@mrsgayathridas $IBKR.

The new announcement $SIVE is the light source for $JBL is probably biggest news to date. And I expect the stock to get re-rated immensely from the news.

Jabil powers $GOOGL, $META, $AMZN, $MSFT for optical transceivers.

They’re a huge player.

@aleabitoreddit Which platform do you use to trade SIVE ?


Summary: Bullish AAOI: AVGO saying CPO is early + GOOGL rejecting CPO both favor pluggable optical transceivers where AAOI competes.

Think you misunderstood, $AVGO said CPO was early. That’s different than photonics/optical transceivers as a whole.

He said pluggable optical and copper will continue to dominate the market.

This statement and $GOOGL rejecting CPO from the other analyst note is incredibly bullish for $AAOI.

@aleabitoreddit Gotta agree with the $AVGO statement regarding copper connections, optical seems early


Summary: Bullish HIMS: global M&A scale, no antitrust block, parallels to META's acquisition strategy and HOOD's retail monetization.

Not really? Ro is US only. $HIMS is much larger in scale after their M&A spree of all the other global heavyweights.

That global distribution network without any of them getting blocked by antitrust makes me bullish on $HIMS because I see parallels to $META's acquisition spree a decade ago + $HOOD's capacity to monetize retail audience through cross-selling.

@aleabitoreddit You're underestimating Ro imo.


Summary: Long AI equities as a hedge against AI-driven displacement; GDP growing rapidly, no slowdown seen.

Yes, it's going viral on X as people digest the repercussions over the weekend.

I wanted to respond with my own opinion that a lot of the actionable insights may be misguided. GDP is actually growing at rapid rates, I am not seeing an economic slowdown.

So, the best hedge against AI human displacement is investing in AI equities.

@aleabitoreddit this is Wednesday news...


Don't think you'll ever see a mid cap company growing 70% y/y, 91.5% gross margin, ~27-30 forward p/e again. Reddit is a money printer at $141.

Summary: Bullish RDDT: 70% growth, 91.5% gross margin, ~27-30x fwd P/E is too cheap; AI-disruption selloff is a mistake; revenue drops straight to bottom line.

I feel like $RDDT gets added to the “software” names that gets disrupted by AI bucket by mistake.

Then gets sold off together when Reddit is fine.

Don’t think you’ll ever see a mid cap company growing 70% y/y, 91.5% gross margin, ~27-30 forward p/e again. And they’re forward estimates are ~54%

35% of their revenue is net income, which is absurd. Licensing revenue was 5% of total revenue (almost nonfactor) last quarter and is likely to only go up.

Revenue increases just hit the bottom line since it’s so lightweight.

Reddit is a money printer at $141.


Summary: Long AEHR expecting inflection in months; avoid AMKR near-term due to capex phase, buildout not online until 2027-2028.

@GoldenMeth IMO $AEHR is a great long here and should hit its inflection point in the next few months like $AAOI.

$AMKR better to wait next year since they’re in capex phase and their buildout comes online late 2027 or 2028 if I remember correctly.

$FORM was a fan this yr

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on semi testing companies? $AEHR $AMKR $FORM


$AMKR better to wait next year since they're in capex phase and their buildout comes online late 2027 or 2028


Summary: Bullish NVDA long-term as AlSiC thermal material addresses 2000W+ Rubin gen architecture challenge in 2027.

I'm surprised majority of the X detectives in the comments guessed this right.

I'll do a write-up on this mystery company soon.

From my research, it was unique to have US company own a large % of the AlSiC supply chain, as this material could be used for $NVDA Rubin gen for thermal.

Better yet, Space + Defense vertical usage of AlSiC gives this company low downside risk bc of DoD/Raytheon/Northrop/NASA reliance of the material  composite.

But, who knew the same thermal material used for hypersonic missiles, f-35 fighter jets, and Mars space exploration could also be used to handle warpage for 2000W+ AI deployments?

Doesn’t seem like markets have yet.

There's an interesting company on here that happens to own ~25-30% of this semi-grade material supply chain in the world.

Thermal is probably an issue, so might be a potential material composite chokepoint with $NVDA architectures in 2027.

There was no issue with H200s (<1000W)


Summary: Bullish AXTI: new contract cycles + capacity expansion will drive earnings higher in ~6 months as price hikes flow through.

7n indium nonstandard is up to all time highs.

When people look at $AXTI earnings, they often make the mistake of judging contracts from maybe 1Y ago before a lot of the shortages/photonics demand began.

I'd expect when new contract cycles hit -> forward earnings a half a year from now will start showing in a lot of the price hikes.

But earnings showed they were already fully backlogged and are expanding capacity (which is positive).

@aleabitoreddit Do you think $AXTI will turn profitable before data center boom is over?


said it was set to "soar" in a very realistic scenario. Not everyday do you have the walking billboard of medicine implicitly pitching $HIMS as a long.

Summary: Bullish HIMS: Huberman endorsement + 41%+ short float creates squeeze setup; shorts look trapped.

Andrew Huberman, the Stanford neuroscientist and one biggest voices in the health, just spotlighted $HIMS.

And said it was set to “soar” in a very realistic scenario.

Not everyday do you have the walking billboard of medicine implicitly pitching $HIMS as a long.

Curious what short sellers were thinking selling 41%+ of the float short?

I try to talk about $HIMS from a fundamental standpoint.

But this cannot be understated:

$HIMS directional shorts look trapped.

The stock price is now up 64.15% to $26.5 (still down from highs of $70s).

While short interest increased to record highs of 41.6%.

There may be a https://t.co/nSjKK8Bryt


Summary: Long IQE at ~$150M MC as a potential 10-bagger; upside from selling Taiwan segment to clear debt and potential re-rating toward peer Landmark Optoelectronics' $3.85B valuation.

Maybe $IQE at these levels as a $LITE supplier at a $150M MC.

Their closest friend over in Taiwan landmark optoelectronics was rerated to $3.85B (IQE has more capacity but debt, and legacy segments dragging it down).

If they sell their Taiwan segment (legacy) then use that to clear the debt might be re-rated strongly.

That being said this probably carries the most risk.

@aleabitoreddit What’s the next 10 bagger?


if AXT they control the substrate supply, they have a lot of pricing power over $LITE to $COHR and America's AI buildout. My $AXTI bottleneck thesis is playing out real time

Summary: Long AXTI as the InP substrate bottleneck/pricing-power play for AI photonics buildout; LITE exposed as supply-constrained buyer.

$LITE Transcript from Conference Call:

"The thing that keeps me up at night most is: Substrates.

Less so sort of reactors and getting the right tools into the fab, although it’s not a zero challenge."

They basically went out and said $AXTI is the bottleneck for photonics.

Especially if InP substrates keeps $LITE's CEO up at night.

I've been mentioning it for the past few months, if AXT they control the substrate supply, they have a lot of pricing power over $LITE to $COHR and America's AI buildout.

I've seen a ton of misinterpretation on X saying: "Seven-year agreement with Sumitomo". But they literally said there was supply tightness Today. And the agreement doesn't mean there will be enough supply for 7 years, especially when China export controls start to kick in on upstream feedstock/materials required by Japanese supply chains to make then.

This is before Photonics has even started to ramp up.

My $AXTI bottleneck thesis is playing out real time and we got new confirmation from $LITE that InP substrates is a bottleneck.


they basically went out and said $AXTI is the bottleneck for photonics. Especially if InP substrates keeps $LITE's CEO up at night


Summary: Bullish IQE specifically on photonics for AI data centre applications.

@AtlasShrug1 Yeah they have other segments too, but I personally would only care about photonics for AI DC usage for $IQE. https://t.co/Rvt8RjzTD8

@aleabitoreddit “IQE enters 2026 with a strong Q1 order book, reflecting improved demand visibility across core segments including consumer mobile, data centre and AI-related photonics markets. The momentum in wireless demand observed in Q4 2025 is expected to continue, supported by existing


High conviction with Soitec, don't see much downside risk from here and upside from CPO is massive

Summary: High-conviction long Soitec: limited downside, massive CPO-driven upside ahead.

@B38B37 High conviction with Soitec, don’t see much downside risk from here and upside from CPO is massive.

It’s just a waiting game but feels inevitable

@aleabitoreddit Already in from 38 with 5% of my portfolio, let's go boss ! 🚀


Macronix (YTD: +153%) ... [are] the two best exposures for the segment

Summary: Macronix and Winbond named as best pure-play exposures to NOR Flash price hike cycle driven by HBM/DRAM supply squeeze dynamics.

Is NOR Flash the next memory supply squeeze from HBM/DRAM?

Recently 10% to 80% hikes were made to: MCUs, NOR Flash, KGD package storage, and power devices recently.

The list of companies spanning:

- China Resources Microelectronics
- SMIC Semiconductor
- Belling
- Goke Microelectronics
- Yingjixin
- Maxscend
- Omron
- ADI
- Infineon

have all increased prices. More specifically, China's Cmsemicon raised MCU and NOR Flash prices by 15%–50% and Puya Semiconductor raised NOR Flash prices.

This helped confirm earlier projections regarding $NVDA GB200 NVL72 systems that NOR content per rack already exceeds $600 and could start hiking rates to $900 (+50% increase).

Investors usually like to hear the sound of price hikes so for exposure:

- Macronix (YTD: +153%)
- Winbond (YTD: +34.91%) are the two best exposures for the segment.

Since they both hold 33-35% of market share each, though a smaller TAM. Infineon and others look to a drop in the bucket for pure play exposure.


Winbond (YTD: +34.91%) are the two best exposures for the segment

Winbond Electronics listed on TWSE as 2344.TW


Summary: Long GLD/SLV as known hedges; endorses CRML long on Tanbreez rare earth deposits tied to Greenland news.

I just wanted to point out some alpha regarding buying into things down 8% for the wrong reason (eg. US drones for defense) rather than known hedges like   $GLD / $SLV.

But yes, if we talked about beneficiaries, your mentions like $CRML, bc of Tanbreez and all its rare earth deposits are great!

@aleabitoreddit You forgot to mention $CRML and $PELI on the Greenland news. Those will moon.


your mentions like $CRML, bc of Tanbreez and all its rare earth deposits are great!


if SK Hynix is producing a more steady ~$100B+ operating income Y/Y at a $400B MC from increased capacity but lower margin: Then that itself looks undervalued

Summary: Bullish memory cycle thesis: structural AI demand drives price hikes to 2028; SK Hynix explicitly undervalued at $400B MC on ~$100B steady operating income; MU, Samsung, SNDK also benefit.

The Memory Cycle.

Is probably going to look like this chart?

With SK Hynix,  $SNDK, Samsung,  $MU and others:

-> Price Hikes until 2028
-> Demand Increase Permanent
-> Price Decreases After 2028

-> Increased Capacity * Increased Demand * lower margin = High Profit Anyway.

For example:

2026 Q1: DRAM, NAND Price Hikes
- NAND prices 100%+ Q/Q, DRAM up 70%+.

2026: Q2: DRAM NAND Price Hikes
- Samsung hikes Q2 NAND prices 100%+ Again, DRAM up.

Q3 -> 2028 Price Hikes.

1. Counterpoint: "There is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half [of 2027], given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken"
2. Intel CEO: "No Relief on Memory Shortage Until 2028".

However what people misunderstand:

-> Memory Demand Is Structural with AI.
-> Prices are not.

We'll likely keep seeing price hikes with the extreme memory shortage in 2026.

But prices start to fall in 2028. What people conflate is:

-> Extreme demand for AI will not cause prices to go to 0.
-> More capacity will not cause demand to suddenly go to 0.

More Supply * Price * More Demand * lower operating margin = more profit anyway.

Operating income will not be 10000%+ Q/Q like now.

But if SK Hynix is producing a more steady ~$100B+ operating income Y/Y at a $400B MC from increased capacity but lower margin:

Compared to $100B -> $220B -> $90B -> $120B.

 Then that itself looks undervalued.

I don't see a world where it ends up being $100B-> $180B (2027) -> $10B what doomposters are projecting, where they operate at a loss from both demand downturn (eg. smartphones) and margin downturn.

The main two things is to look out for is if software/memory usage gets extremely, extremely efficient or hyperscaler capex suddenly disappears (AI is no longer a thing).

Same could be said around GPUs for training/inference.

But, I would mainly be looking out for hyperscaler capex projections as the #1 indicator. Not random out of context quotes taken from Samsung executives to signal operating income two years out.

AI has fundamentally changed what the "commodity" memory is, similar to GPUs back in 2023.


Price Hikes until 2028 -> Demand Increase Permanent


We'll likely keep seeing price hikes with the extreme memory shortage in 2026


Summary: Helium/LNG supply chain fears are overblown for SK Hynix and Samsung; selloff is a buying opportunity given secured supply and US-Korea tech deal.

The helium panic makes for a compelling headline for $EWY, KOSPI, Taiwan, and Japan.

Similar to the LNG panic before finding out the Korean giants were fine.

However, the underlying mechanics show the memory players in SK Hynix and Samsung in specific are highly insulated from potential Helium disruption.

SK Hynix put out a statement to Reuters:

"Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium.

"Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected."

Samsung have not put out statements yet, but from their Q4 earnings call they stated:

"We are proud to be the first in the industry to develop and deploy a helium reuse system for semiconductor manufacturing"

This "enables us to recover and purify helium for redeployment, cutting annual consumption by approximately 4.7 tons and achieving a reuse rate of around 19%"

Samsung confirmed that this system is already active on production lines and likely protects their supply chain.

When investors panic from headlines around structural exposure due to Kim Young-bae's claims about 90% reliance on Middle Eastern imports shutting down HBM production.

The Volza trade data contradicts it, but the discrepancy could be gaseous vs. liquid helium categorization, transshipment, or Kim rounding up for political effect.

Regardless, it looks like the two large Korean giants have largely secured their Helium supply chain from conflicts in the Middle East.

The core point of the selloff markets are missing:

United States will not let their AI buildout stall from Middle East Conflicts. SK Hynix and Samsung are in the center of it all.

US/Korea Technology Prosperity Deal to protect advanced technology supply chains as well.

And especially so, when companies like SK Hynix put out definitive statements:

Stating there's no chance the company is affected from helium.

Markets are pricing in the worst case scenarios for Helium/LNG disruption but looking at the statements suggest it's a buying opportunity.

If the Hormuz were closed, it looks like 80% of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected.

And looks like $EWY SK Hynix and Samsung are largely diversified since 2022.

People are quoting majority of all LNG flowing through the Strait of Hormuz (~59%) goes to just four https://t.co/tOrBnhCZBS


The helium panic makes for a compelling headline for $EWY, KOSPI, Taiwan, and Japan


there's a lot of re-rating to do given its fwd p/e is still 11

Summary: Bullish MU on valuation re-rating potential; forward P/E of 11 leaves significant upside.

@davesetton Like the others said i personally wouldn’t want to time the market with $MU.

It’s your decision in the end but in my opinion there’s a lot of re-rating to do given its fwd p/e is still 11.

@aleabitoreddit For someone not in $MU, what entry price would you recommend?


Summary: Bullish HIMS: recent acquisitions unlock global DTC healthcare + cross-sell optionality that shorts are mispricing.

Extremely stupid for short sellers to directionally double down on $HIMS.

Their recent acquisitions just gave $HIMS the global retail market for DTC healthcare.

The cross selling opportunities are extremely latent and hard to model. So very bad risk management, given it’s not your typical hedged arbitrage trade.

@aleabitoreddit Incredible lack of risk management by short sellers.

They doubled down by increasing their positions by another 5 million shares. https://t.co/fGcsOdwkw2


Summary: Remains bullish on XLU: hyperscaler power demand for inference + US grid modernization thesis intact.

@Investmnt_Eagle @EquityAndy Yes, hyperscalers need power for inference, and US is modernizing the grid for that.

Unfortunately Iran blowing a bunch of stuff up around the energy trade, leaves a lot of short-medium term uncertainty.

@aleabitoreddit @EquityAndy Still bullish on XLU?


Summary: AEVA's FMCW Doppler lidar seen as superior input for deterministic World Models vs OUST's probabilistic ToF data; implied long AEVA, relative underweight OUST.

Apparently $OUST sits more in “Probabilistic AI”while $AEVA FMCW solves the Deterministic Physical AI that word models need

“FMCW gives velocity as a direct physical measurement (Doppler shift) versus ToF requiring computational derivation across frames”.

Maybe you can help articulate the nuance with $OUST and why you think it’s better exposure to 4D AI

---

World* models.

Apparently if the world's most advanced World Models require Doppler-level precision, $AEVA is one of the only companies that can do it compared to companies to $OUST here?

If you give Cosmos "probabilistic" depth data (from $OUST ) the model has to spend massive amounts of compute cycles calculating where things are moving. $AEVA just feeds in deterministic velocity data. “If a model has to infer motion from sequential depth frames, that’s additional computation versus receiving velocity as a direct input”


If you give Cosmos "probabilistic" depth data (from $OUST) the model has to spend massive amounts of compute cycles calculating where things are moving


Summary: Bearish IREN: $6B ATM shelf is a structural overhang; dilution inevitable, not a dip-buying opportunity.

I'm here to protect retail interests. I have zero economic interest in $IREN. As you mentioned, it's a lot easier to go with the flow.

But the harsh reality is $6B ATM is enormous and will serve as a structural overhang for holders.

I can't see how anyone could honestly say it's a "dip buying opportunity" when half of the marketcap is inevitably minted then sold against retail holders.

@aleabitoreddit Respect for not letting the negative reactions censor your opinion. Would be soooo much easier to farm engagement by just jumping on the bandwagon.


Just goes to show how dominant $NVDA is that AI firms can't function without it

Summary: Bullish NVDA: China forced to allow H200 orders proves NVDA's dominance is irreplaceable even for state-directed markets.

There were many reports Chinese tech (bytedance, $BABA, etc) were struggling with inference capacity.

China still hasn’t likely changed their domestic self-reliance goal but reality of inference limits likely forced their hand.

Just goes to show how dominant $NVDA is that AI firms can’t function without it

$NVDA

BREAKING: China has cleared tech companies to place orders for Nvidia H200 chips, as per Bloomberg.

- These companies can now discuss specifics details like the amount of chips they need.

- China will still encourage companies to buy domestic chips along side Nvidia. https://t.co/myN3dvtD7b