Summary: Bullish NBIS long-term: blowout ARR guidance 2-3 years ahead of consensus; dilution is short-term headwind but fundamentals are compelling.

$NBIS earnings report blew away expectations with $7-9B ARR and a $3B hyperscaler deal with Meta.

They also added to their enterprise client list with Cursor.

Despite that, stock is down -1.77% currently before their earnings call.  Why?

Dilution~$2.7B 25M share dilution ATM offering that will be filed Nov 12th.

Meaning 2.7B worth of shares (at current prices) can be sold in the open market at current prices vs. convertible notes (preferred structure), which is the most likely reason it's not up 20% by now.

It affect share price short term, but the company fundamentals after this offering is incredible with amazing forward revenue growth. Eg. look at Rocketlab or others that did this to supplement growth.

Will also delve into financial data given more time. But the $7-9 billion ARR for 2026 alone (which many analysts expected in 2028+), is insanely bullish.

Wow, $NBIS just blew away ARR expectations on growth and just signed a surprisising $3B hyperscaler deal with $META from their ER.

They now expect $7-9B ARR 2026, which is ~2.1B+ revenue/quarter.

This is exactly how Nebius grows grow to a $100B MC and $NBIS is a generational https://t.co/A5jCF3rb6K


AXT effectively became a monopoly after China's export controls on Japan 2 days ago... 7n prices have hit ATHs, $AXTI owns the mines all the way to substrate production so many price increases and bifurcation in premiums between western hyperscalers + SMM would increase their bottom line

Summary: Long AXTI: effective InP substrate monopoly post-China export controls, vertically integrated mine-to-substrate, ATH feedstock prices, and western hyperscaler premiums boost bottom line.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

$AXTI secured $100m from Northland for capex expansion, deferred FCF from $5m of contracted revenue from 2024 or early 2025 does not make a material difference.

Stock runup was multifaceted:

-> Recognition that InP substrates would bottleneck the AI industry deployment with photonics

-> Recognition that InP substrate production was a duopoly (Sumitomo, $AXTI), with some smaller players like JX

 ->Recognition that InP feedstock was another bottleneck for the InP substrate producers ( $AXTI, Vital) with some smaller players like $DOWA.

-> Supply shortage notice from earnings reports like $COHR

-> Recognition that Western hypescalers are paying markups on top of SMM prices ~Dec 24th

-> Recognition that AXT effectively became a monopoly after China's export controls on Japan 2 days ago (which would limit substrate production at scale from AXT's major competitor). Est 3-6 months inventory.

7n prices have hit ATHs, $AXTI owns the mines all the way to substrate production so many price increases and bifurcation in premiums between western hyperscalers + SMM would increase their bottom line.

I personally don't consider contracted backlog and 1 quarter deferred contracted revenue all the way back from 2024 or early 2025 to be material before the entire supply chokepoint started. But to each their own interpretation.

@aleabitoreddit @beauty_oe Isn’t the run up in the stock the expectation of the supply shortage impact ? The problem with this preannounce is that it means export permits will be lumpy and that means less visibility on earnings. Adding to capex also means that fcf worsens…


This stock is extremely undervalued. Northland just gave a $206 PT, but I've been calling this since it was under $100. I rarely have high-conviction stocks. But NBIS is one of them. $112 -> $200 in 4 months.

Summary: High-conviction long NBIS; $750K+ position, $206 PT from Northland, author's own target $200 in 4 months from ~$112.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

$750K+ in $NBIS, with ~$93K+ in unrealized gains in just 5 days.

This stock is extremely undervalued. Northland just gave a $206 PT, but I’ve been calling this since it was under $100.

I rarely have high-conviction stocks. But NBIS is one of them.

$112 -> $200 in 4 months. https://t.co/wHTRGKlupK

Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT:

Thesis
______
When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely https://t.co/020adNYx0n


Summary: Views CIFR's convertible note terms as favorable; suggests buying the dip.

@miningstockinfo @CipherInc This is how companies should do dilution imo. Pretty good terms for $CIFR, might be a good dip buy here.

JUST IN: 💼 @CipherInc has announced a $1.1B offering of 0% convertible senior notes due 2031, up from $800M. The proceeds will aid data center construction and accelerate HPC strategy. Notes mature October 2031 and initial conversion price set at $16.03/share. $CIFR. https://t.co/NINN0ngsa3


Summary: Long CIFR (de-risked AWS/GOOGL colo play) and NBIS (higher upside full-stack Neocloud); downgraded IREN on new GPU fleet risk.

$CIFR is actually next favorite Neocloud sector pick.

I made a tierlist earlier and $NBIS was S+ and $CIFR was S.

But here's the difference and nuance people might not know:

Nebius captures the entire value chain of the AI cloud business. $IREN said it themselves in their ER call that they did full-stack with $MSFT because of to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns", while taking on orchestration, software, and deprecation with GPUs purchases vs. colo.

$CIFR is de-risked as you mentioned because of AWS, $GOOGL and finally secure, which is why I love the pick. Doing colo, they avoid purchasing/managing GPU fleets, which is why I downgraded $IREN due to a new risk factor that isn't quite present with $NBIS and wasn't there before.

There's high-margin, annuity-like revenue for space, power, and cooling for hyperscales. It's one of the lowest-risk adjusted stocks in the sector.

However, upside is not anywhere as high. Especially when you look at leases (eg. 10Y-15Y) revenue ramp is a lot slower, and upside is a lot less compared to full-stack pure Neoclouds like $NBIS.

@aleabitoreddit Highest upside derisked play in the space is CIFR at its current price/valuation.


I downgraded $IREN due to a new risk factor that isn't quite present with $NBIS and wasn't there before


$META is insanely profitable. That's just narrative. Net income last quarter would be $18.6B (large beat) but reported was $2.71B from big beautiful bill. My guess is when they play reverse uno, with accounting optics next quarter the narrative changes again.

Summary: Bullish META: underlying profitability is intact; accounting optics will reverse next quarter, shifting narrative positive.

$META is insanely profitable. That’s just narrative.

When I bought $GOOGL longs at $145 everyone was saying search was dying even though numbers say otherwise.

In Meta’s case they’re printing money and this is just optics. Net income last quarter would be  $18.6B (large beat) but reported was $2.71B from big beautiful bill.

My guess is when they play reverse uno, with accounting optics next quarter the narrative changes again.

Just wanted to post to see if it turns out right

@aleabitoreddit Market is pricing in zucks ai infrastructure spend as metaverse 2.0


Summary: Long FLY into 2026 on medium-lift payload launch with Northrop; execution risk acknowledged.

$FLY is part of my longs for 2026 given medium lift payload launch with Northrop. I do like it but obviously the biggest risk is execution related where $RKLB historically had high success.

I actually posted a thesis about it, I just don’t post often about it like $SNAP or others.

@aleabitoreddit Hey @aleabitoreddit any thoughts on $FLY ?


Summary: Bullish NBIS, expects recovery; prefers March-May calls as safer entry.

@soulbiri1 I would catch Omoroi’s falling knife too on $NBIS since everyone deserves love.

March-may calls are safer but I expect weebius to recover!

$NBIS Omori's falling knife sign

The psychological horror +themes of depression and trauma in Omori reminded me of my stock portfolio recently. But taking a close look at my largest holding, I saw a pattern emerge. I decided to catch Omori's falling knife. Bought 10x Jan 28 100C https://t.co/Hz210QIeuI


Summary: VLN mispriced relative to fundamentals; $70m revenue and $93m cash vs MC implies fair value $7-$8.

@SingularityRes Yeah I was looking at semi supply chains for robotics and then their $70m revenue, $93m cash pile and MC just looked extremely, extremely off.

Could easily be priced at $7-$8 today but the ticker collision with the Canadian $VLN just made me laugh.


Summary: Long HOOD into index inclusion date; bullish on risk/reward with new products next Tuesday.

@MilesTa53993799 I’m day trading $HOOD, I’ll adjust based on how it goes https://t.co/kZQxXl0zjr

---

@MilesTa53993799 Also it’s worth the risk/reward just holding it past inclusion date imo.

Down 4%, they have new product lines next Tuesday, and great company all around lol.

I’m just a short term swing trader


Summary: Oracle's GPU-as-a-Service struggles validate neoclouds' competitive moat; bullish NBIS/CRWV/IREN/CIFR/WYFI, bearish ORCL.

Why $ORCL facing challenges with GPU-as-a-Service (from leaks) is actually bullish for neoclouds like Nebius.

Hyperscalers struggling with GPU economics strengthens the case for specalized neoclouds.

This is an insane opportunity on $NBIS, $WYFI, $IREN, $CIFR, $CRWV and others:

TLDR: (from rumors)

Oracle faced a loss from:

- Low utilization (idle capacity) before customer ramp

- Massive upfront CapEx (Blackwell GPUs)

- Heavy overhead

- Discount pricing

Result: Negative gross margins on GPU compute for Oracle.

This is negative for Oracle, positive for Neoclouds:  This is just goes to show

1. Proof of Complexity = Validation of Moat.

Neoclouds like $NBIS do it better and this is an actual competitive moat and margin opportunity (This is why $MSFT went to Nebius to sign a deal instead of building it out themselves).

2. Capital Efficiency Advantage.

Neoclouds use Leasing / colocation for flexibility (e.g. NBIS in Patmos & Verne), workload allocations to maintain high utilization (while Oracle struggled with utilization).

3. Outsourcing Demand Increases

Oracle and Hyperscalers might shift workloads to Neoclouds and sign more contracts if they have trouble with buildout (eg. MSFT with CRWV)

4. Oracle used discount prices here.  Neoclouds can just price rationally on top of optimizing their margins.

5. Custom Infra Increases Margins

Neoclouds like Nebius have custom orchestration stacks for GPU scheduling, lot of internal software and automation to maximize utilization and yield to sustain 50-70% gross margins compared to ORCL.

This is news negative for Oracle and Hyperscaler buildout but actually bullish for specialized neocloud providers like $CRWV, $NBIS, and others.

Monday October 6th Market Close Thoughts:

- $NBIS extremely good dip buy. Down 2.38% after rising 5.78% in the morning. All other Neoclouds from $IREN to $CIFR held their 4%-14%+ gains. Nebius likely influenced by option flow, should play catchup soon and I stand by $225 PT.

-


bullish for specialized neocloud providers like $CRWV, $NBIS, and others


This is news negative for Oracle and Hyperscaler buildout


Summary: Bullish NBIS: MSFT deal revenue kicks in Q4 2026/Q1 2027, >1000% Q revenue growth, additional Mag7 deals expected; $100B market cap in 1 year.

Yep, there's probably ~12-16 month-ish revenue lag for full recognition but quarterly revenue with $MSFT deal would likely be realized Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.

With that Q revenue would increase over 1000%+ Y/Y to $1.225B/quarter (~$4.9B ARR) if Nebius stopped growing completely.

But of course this is a hyper-scaling company, so I'd expect another Mag7 deal + other enterprise/SMB clients to bring that number up (which is how we get to $100B MC from here in 1 year time)

Also, I used EV/Revenue of 6–8× and EV/EBITDA of 15–25, which is conservative not P/S multiple of 10-15.

This was the core business (eg. $33B core business midpoint + 40% discounted from sum of parts (cash, GPUs, assets like clickhouse), which would put it to ~$39B today midpoint if there's zero growth in any number.

@aleabitoreddit The $MSFT deal is through 2031 so all of that revenue will not be realized next year.

A P/S multiple of 10-15 is not a given in rational markets for businesses with the margin profile of $NBIS


Summary: Long AXTI as monopoly bottleneck on InP substrates critical to AI photonics ramp; TAM and margins set to expand exponentially as supply shortage kicks in.

TAM for InP substrates was few hundred million previously since it was a niche telecom commodity.

Most analysts or charters model this wrong since it's not linear.

It's a game theory supply bottleneck of a critical material that $AXTI controls between all the world's trillion dollar companies that are desperate for allocation.

You can see both forward TAM and margins increase exponentially like HBM once supply shortage kicks in for $AXTI and InP. I made this comment earlier but this is a summary:

1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged)

Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing.

December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week.

This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins.

2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others.

-> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity.

-> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale.

EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough.

3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side.

This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity).

And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+.

It's impossible to accurately model bottlenecks  and PTs where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes.

For me it's just buying into the bottleneck with the purest asymmetry play there is (which happens to be a monopoly now).

@aleabitoreddit Feels like its to late now, up almost 1000% last 6 months... whats your PT?


all the world's trillion dollar hyperscalers are bottlenecked by such a tiny company in $AXTI. And that company would have a monopoly position in that bottleneck post-export China control ban on Japan. I would estimate that AI supply chains hit a critical state in 3-6 months time

Summary: Long AXTI as monopoly bottleneck for hyperscaler InP supply chains; critical shortage seen in 3-6 months as Sumitomo/JX inventory depletes.

This is probably the first time in history all the world's trillion dollar hyperscalers are bottlenecked by such a tiny company in $AXTI.

And that company would have a monopoly position in that bottleneck post-export China control ban on Japan.

I don't know how markets will evaluate this bottleneck, I'm just simply pointing it out. You should do your own research!

However, I would estimate that AI supply chains hit a critical state in 3-6 months time when Sumitomo/JX start running out of inventory and when hyperscalers start to ramp up + realize there's no more capacity for photonic components (by second order effect bc of inp).

$MSFT alone was projected to take up double digits of the entire InP supply chain output from Maia ramp in Q4 2026, 2027, and they haven't even started to ramp up yet.

@aleabitoreddit is this a long term hold for regardless of price action or you have a PT? Thanks


Summary: Long NBIS with $200 target; buying every dip to DCA.

@pepemoonboy Nice positions! I believe $NBIS to $200. I'm buying every dip to DCA right now.

@aleabitoreddit Amazing thesis and overview. I couldn’t agree more with everything you said. I’m buying more $NBIS Monday😎 https://t.co/nC05R0pGR3


Summary: Long NBIS; author concentrating position on asymmetric upside conviction.

@genZinvest0r True, $NBIS investors are just superior.

Jokes aside it's not winner takes all eg. cloud (Azure, AWS, GCP, etc).

But, I've always been more bullish on $NBIS in terms of asymmetrical upside and thought I should just put my money where my mouth is + focus concentration on it.

@aleabitoreddit Superior business and superior investors!👑


Summary: CRDO drop seen as attractive long entry after misinformation-driven selloff.

@LongInnovation $CRDO is not a big position for me. More of a swing trade based off misinformation posted about customer about to $MRVL and some keynote shenanigans.

But the drop might present an attractive entry point for others who want to go long.

@aleabitoreddit What size of your portfolio is this?


Summary: Bullish on Mag7-vendor stocks LGN, ALAB, TSM, CRWV on the thesis that broad Mag7 adoption signals durable demand.

@gunnaosrs Yeah that was my same thesis I was thinking about internally.

Only negatives I've heard about $LGN so far were debt and something with P/E funds but I haven't looked into it too much.

Whenever a lot of Mag7 uses a business I get really interested (eg. $ALAB, $TSM, $CRWV)


Whenever a lot of Mag7 uses a business I get really interested (eg. $ALAB, $TSM, $CRWV)


Summary: Favors TSM for best risk-adjusted upside on AI buildout; AMD for raw upside; no reason to own ASML vs alternatives.

@Docofgothm @pepemoonboy $ASML tracks fab cycles. $TSM is a measurement of AI buildout as a whole.

No reason to go with ASML in that case.

In terms of raw upside, maybe $AMD wins at this point, but asymmetrical returns (lowest downside for upside) $TSM wins by an enormous margin.

@aleabitoreddit @pepemoonboy Huh. Interesting. You make it sound if one would want to initiate a position in pure chip plays, $TSM would be a better bet than $NVDA or $AMD. How do you feel about $ASML lithography monopoly


In terms of raw upside, maybe $AMD wins at this point


Summary: Bullish on NBIS heading into next week.

@pepemoonboy Thanks, looks like there was some de-escalation. Excited for $NBIS too next week https://t.co/Vg3ZM4D5eW

@aleabitoreddit Phenomenal overview as always. Eyeing $NBIS all next week. Gonna be fun


Summary: Long NBIS and IREN over CRWV long-term; CRWV is a financial nightmare dragging down the neocloud sector.

Yep absolutely. I think algos/market put $NBIS, $IREN in the $CRWV, $NVDA basket right now.

So any negative hit piece about Coreweave does negatively affects the others. We've finally seen $WULF, $CIFR and others get put into the colo basket (which are relatively unaffected to GPU depreciation arguments), and outperform.

But $CRWV is a financial nightmare to put it bluntly, so it does affect the others as long as it's treated as the neocloud sector leader.

As for $NVDA, TPU arguments from $GOOGL is the strongest bear case I've seen to date though on $NVDA GPU clouds, but these companies already have have 5 year hyperscaler deals locked in from $META, $MSFT.

imo markets will price things in correctly in due time, I do think both $NBIS and $IREN will be worth more than $CRWV one day. but only one of those has self-driving robotaxis lol

@aleabitoreddit Incredible write-up. I agree with the whole thesis. In the short term, I feel like both $NVDA performance and $CRWV financial structure are affecting $NBIS and $IREN performance.


$CRWV is a financial nightmare to put it bluntly


Summary: Sarcastic inverse of Cramer's PLTR $200 call; author implies going short PLTR.

Shorting $PLTR, thanks Jim. https://t.co/2xKvNnPqvE

Palantir being pushed up nicely. Right through $150 like a knife through butter. Next stop: $200. Obviously Robinhood roaring, too


Summary: Author assembles ideal Neocloud portfolio across NBIS, WLAC, IREN, CIFR, WULF plus TSM, FLNC, GLXY as supporting positions.

🧙♂ Summoning Exodia, the ideal Neocloud Deck

Exodia Deck:
🧩 $NBIS – Head
🧩 $WLAC – Left Arm
🧩 $IREN – Right Arm
🧩 $CIFR – Left Leg
🧩 $WULF – Right Leg

Pot of Greed Setup:
🏭 $TSM
⚡ $FLNC
🏡 $GLXY

When all five are in your port, Sydney Sweeney descends from the Neocloud https://t.co/dlnjgCAIxl

The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel

Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return.

🔹 Buckets

Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅

With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF

Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH

Miners pivoting to


Summary: Holds $500k+ in call options on NBIS purchased in the last two weeks; high-conviction long.

@accounting_ds Yeah, people can call it crazy but I don't see them taking any positions on $NBIS.

I bought $500k+ calls in the last two weeks so I put my money where my mouth is.

I'm just writing down my train of thoughts in terms of how I developed my conviction.

@aleabitoreddit This is very reasonable, people will call you crazy though who do no research


Summary: Blowout NBIS earnings with $3B META deal and $7-9B ARR; author rates Insanely Strong Buy at $116; META flagged as hyperscaler partner.

Takeaway from $NBIS earnings so far:

Absolute. Blowout. Earnings.

$3B $META deal + Cursor new Enterprise clients on top of $17B with $MSFT just 2 months ago.

$7-9B ARR projection is enormous and blew away any expectation.

 Insanely Strong Buy $116 (including the ATM). https://t.co/AxWshJhAgJ

$NBIS earnings report blew away expectations with $7-9B ARR and a $3B hyperscaler deal with Meta.

They also added to their enterprise client list with Cursor.

Despite that, stock is down -1.77% currently before their earnings call.  Why?

Dilution~$2.7B 25M share dilution ATM https://t.co/X6xn9AmHwS


$3B $META deal + Cursor new Enterprise clients on top of $17B with $MSFT just 2 months ago


Gov re-open into rate cut end of month into earnings (huge huge catalyst for most growth stocks) -> Second rate cut in December. -> More Mag7 contracts for Nebius or related companies like Coreweave. -> Earnings report (they should re-rate really hard on this with forward projections)

Summary: Long NBIS into 2025 on multiple catalysts: rate cuts, Mag7 contracts, earnings re-rate, and sum-of-parts IPO progress.

At least for 2025 on $NBIS

Macro wise
-> Gov re-open into rate cut end of month into earnings (huge huge catalyst for most growth stocks)
-> Second rate cut in December.

Fundamentals
-> More Mag7 contracts for Nebius or related companies like Coreweave.
-> Earnings report (they should re-rate really hard on this with forward projections)
-> Sum of parts investments moving toward IPO.

@aleabitoreddit Any 2025/early 2026 catalysts you're expecting to push nbis towards your PT? I'm wondering if other neoclouds have more short term potential due to potential contracts, or if there's more news we can expect for NBIS. I guess increasing institutional ownership could push it up too


Summary: Modeled $7.30 price target vs $2.50 current on 2027 EV/Sales + net cash; algorithms wrongly shorting due to ticker mix-up adds upside catalyst.

I mean I modeled for ~$7.30 (from $2.5 currently) share price.

From forward 2027, $130M 5x EV/Sales + $93.5M net cash.

I think algorithms piling in to short sell $VLN because they mixed up tickers is just a cherry on top.

That being said I’m just posting info discovery, markets will decide how to price that in

@aleabitoreddit Since the algorithms messed up, what price realistically should VLN be at with the correct data


Summary: Bullish ETOR on today's 5% dip; sees no fundamental reason for the decline given 33% cash + IBKR-rate growth.

@MakhmudovAkbar Yeah $ETOR is great on a 5% drop today. Genuinely don't know why it's down so much given they're like 33% cash and growing at $IBKR rates.

@aleabitoreddit Started a position of about 5% portfolio of 80/20 shares and options in ETOR yesterday. In a room full of smart engineers and business leaders and a billion dollars of cash on hand, they just have to be able to figure something out.


Both $NBIS Clickhouse and Avride stakes alone can be worth more than $IREN marketcap in a year or two. That being said I'm still bullish on both.

Summary: Bullish NBIS (Clickhouse+Avride stakes alone worth more than IREN mktcap in 1-2 yrs, plus main biz) and IREN, though NBIS is the stronger conviction call.

True. Both $NBIS Clickhouse and Avride stakes alone can be worth more than $IREN marketcap in a year or two.

That being said I’m still bullish on both. It’s just a bit unfair though Nebius owns 4 subsidiaries from Yandex days growing triple digits y/y.

That’s not even accounting for their main business line

$NBIS > $IREN

Thanks, @aleabitoreddit for you great work as always!


Summary: Endorsing a bullish call on NFE from another X user; implied long.

Sometimes you just need to blindly trust random X users $NFE https://t.co/EAgj6WrbTN


Summary: Expects a recovery in high-beta names NBIS, IREN, and ASTS tied to government reopening + 74%-priced rate cut next month.

Sure, my speculation was that we'll see a large recovery in high beta stocks like $NBIS, $IREN, or $ASTS once government will re-opens. Since there's a broader tailwind of a rate cut next month priced in at 74%.

So with the current contract data:

Nov 12th-15th: 22%

Nov 15th: 51% (~half chance sometime in the next week)

Nov 30th: 92%

We can just see there's a 50% chance government reopens in the next 7 days.

So we'll get a recovery around then (likely with some frontrunning if chances increase). That's just in terms with estimating recovery.

@aleabitoreddit I’m not sure what to make of the current contract market data — what inference do you draw when given these numbers?


$NBIS has the highest normalized gross margins and revenue capacity in the market... $NBIS maintains highest asymmetrical upside

Summary: Long NBIS (highest normalized margins, asymmetric upside) and IREN (48% margin potential via full-stack buildout); short/avoid CRWV on unsustainable $1.3B debt load.

Economics of Neocloud GPU Pricing

What happens when you normalize margins across the three major GPU neoclouds, accounting for depreciation and cost structure?

· Nebius ( $NBIS )

· CoreWeave ( $CRWV )

· IREN ( $IREN )

Below is what the research shows for margins using the same H100s:

35.8% $IREN - Bare-Metal H100

· Revenue: ~$2.50–2.75/GPU-hr -> $7.80M/MW-year
· COGS: $5.01M/MW  · GPU D&A: $3.50M  · Power: $0.22M  · DC depreciation: $0.47M    · Networking: $0.25M  · Third-party middleware (poolside, WEKA): $0.20M

Gross Profit: $2.79M/MW → 35.8% margin
_

38.1% $NBIS - Full-Stack H100

· Revenue: ~$3.00–3.50/GPU-hr → $9.75M/MW-year
· COGS: $6.04M/MW    · GPU D&A: $3.50M    · Power (Finland): $0.37M    · Colo (60%): $0.72M    · Ops/platform: $0.40M    · Other: $0.86M

Gross Profit: $3.71M/MW → 38.1% margin

-

30.6% $CRWV - Full-Stack H100

· Revenue: ~$2.80–3.25/GPU-hr → $8.90M/MW-year
· COGS: $6.18M/MW    · GPU D&A: $3.50M    · Power (mixed): $0.42M    · Colo (80%): $0.96M    · Ops: $0.38M    · Other: $0.83M
Gross Profit: $2.72M/MW → 30.6% margin

We're not modeling based on spot or single-GPU rentals only (it's $2.00/hour on $NBIS website for example).

It's full-stacked datacenter-scale infrastructure (400 GPUs per MW, full networking, cooling, power, data center costs, maintenance, infini-band/Infiband-class interconnect, etc.), assuming 85% utilization, annualized revenue/MW, using historical pricing, and deriving revenue-per-GPU-hour from that to see the effects of full-stack vs. bare metal.
_

Interpretation (Standalone Cloud):

· Nebius’s ~25% revenue premium outweighs its higher power + colo costs -> +2.3 pts vs IREN.

· CoreWeave’s ~14% revenue premium doesn’t offset colo exposure ->  ~5 pts below IREN.

_

Colocation vs Owned DC Costs:

$IREN (Owned DC):

- $0.47M/MW in DC depreciation
· No colocation rent

$NBIS / $CRWV (Colo-heavy)
- Nebius colo: ~$0.72M/MW (60% of racks)
- CoreWeave colo: ~$0.96M/MW (80%)
Cost delta: IREN saves ~$0.4–0.6M/MW.

_

Full-Stack Pricing as a Moat

Revenue Premiums
· Nebius: +20–25%
· CoreWeave: +14%
· IREN: 0%

Cost Structure

· IREN middleware cost: ~$0.20M/MW
· Nebius/CoreWeave internal stack amortization: ~$0.38–0.40M/MW
· IREN power + owned DC advantage: ~$0.60M/MW (but not monetized via pricing)

_

$IREN vs $NBIS MSFT deal comparison:

Added it for fun, for the $MSFT deal alone:

$IREN: 9.3% gross margin
$NBIS: 40.2% gross margin.

 - IREN's MSFT margin (9.3%) is a GPU cost problem (GB300) + contract pricing

However, $IREN is likely 15-20% levered IRR, which is the better financial modeling to use (which is still profitable), after financing, like the 20% pre-payment from $MSFT.

Levered IRR is much modelling structure to use lol.

Differentiators

$IREN  (Bare Metal)
_

- Cost Advantage via Owned Infrastructure + Low Cost Power
- Hyperscaler contracts with secured financing and customer prepayments increases levered IRR

$NBIS (Full Stack)
_

· Revenue premium over bare metal pricing
· Highest Normalized Margin

$CRWV
_

· Revenue premium over bare metal pricing
· Debt load not included here (would further pressure margins)

Notes:

-With Coreweave that typically use different hardware mixes, the normalization math changes.

- Depreciation is normalized to 4 years which may hurt or benefit some in live accounting (eg. $CRWV 6 year schedules $IREN 3 year leases).

- Debt not included in margin calculation, in that event $CRWV would look a lot worse -$1.3B/year.

- Utilization is normalized to 85%, which hurts $NBIS in normalization calculations given their whitepaper (eg. 100% benchmark performance vs. GPU cloud providers deliver 95–97%.), in live environments it would likely be the highest compared to $CRWV.

Takeaway for HPC segment only:

- $NBIS (38.1%) > $IREN (35.8%) > $CRWV (30.6%) for margins. Nebius is the favorite due to premium pricing from full-stack.

- However, if $IREN can build the software layer right on top of owning the DC costs + doing full-stack iaas, they become the structural leader with a whopping 48.6% Gross Margin over the others, so this is purely execution.

- Utilization is one of the biggest factors in determining gross margins. $NBIS is sold out + diversified (Cursor, Shopify, etc. keep capacity full) and customer base is a moat.

- Debates over "full-stack vs. bare metal" converge to slight edge over full-stack .

- Full stack is a moat. Owning the infrastructure is also a moat. Both are converging with $NBIS building out greenfield facilities and $IREN climbing up the full-stack layers (eg. GPU deals instead of doing colo like $CIFR).

_

TLDR:

Margins: $NBIS (38.1%) | $IREN (35.8%) | $CRWV (30.6%)

$NBIS has the highest normalized gross margins and revenue capacity in the market.

(38.1% $NBIS vs. 35.8% $IREN)

$IREN has the highest margin potential at 48% from owning all parts of the layers if they successfully build $NBIS's software layer on top of their established, low-cost infrastructure moat

(48% $IREN vs. 38.1% $NBIS).

$CRWV....  $1.3B debt interest not included in calculations, stay away medium long term. Margins aren't a problem but unsustainable capital structure is.

Among all the neocloud players, $NBIS and $IREN are the two clear leaders in the full-stack space.

$NBIS maintains highest asymmetrical upside while $IREN has the highest upside potential.


$IREN has the highest upside potential... if $IREN can build the software layer right on top of owning the DC costs + doing full-stack iaas, they become the structural leader with a whopping 48.6% Gross Margin


$CRWV.... $1.3B debt interest not included in calculations, stay away medium long term. Margins aren't a problem but unsustainable capital structure is.


it's actually a pretty great buy in my view

Summary: Bullish LTC on real payment usage, upcoming ETF, 7B MC with finite supply, treasury buying, and altcoin pump environment.

Oh here’s where my thoughts about $LTC comes in. I run a fintech company and I see Litecoin surprising amount of usage as a payment vehicle across the industry, even when you compare it to USDC, $SOL, $BTC and others.

And now when you get a ETF, it’s sitting at 7B MC with finite supply like Bitcoin, + treasury companies that can buy up a lot of supply over time + market randomly pumping altcoins like ZCash, it’s actually a pretty great buy in my view.

@aleabitoreddit since you mentioned Litecoin, i have strong hesitations on your sanity


$NBIS is the next Microsoft in the making. Scaling from $100M quarterly revenue to $2B-3B+ in 1-2 years off 55-75% gross margin. Completely undervalued.

Summary: Long NBIS: projects revenue scaling to $2-3B+ in 1-2 years, 55-75% gross margins, stakes in next-gen AI infra companies; calls it completely undervalued.

$NBIS is the next Microsoft in the making.

- Scaling from $100M quarterly revenue to $2B-3B+ in 1-2 years off 55-75% gross margin

- Large ownership of next generational companies like Clickhouse (powers Anthropic)

- Infrastructure of Mag7 AI Compute.

Completely undervalued. https://t.co/dOUiOyKkyd

People often ask what happens when I get everything right:

1 Year Return: 630.44% 📈

Just genuinely want to help!

I share my analysis and positions openly from $NBIS to $HOOD to $UPWK before any rally.

Feel free to look through my history on X or Reddit. https://t.co/2JGib55O0r


Summary: Bullish UPWK post-earnings: expects repricing higher on margin expansion, short squeeze, and analyst upgrades at 1.5B mkt cap on $770M revenue.

$UPWK is will do some repricing after earnings today + short interest/analyst upgrades.

All they needed to do was expand operating margins on their 78% gross margins and they did.

1.5B company doing 770m FY revenue, growing operating margins, and a strong cash position.

So for the long term play on Upwork:

$UPWK is trading at a 7.5 P/E with ~$770M in annual revenue, 78% gross margins, and $622M in cash — yet its market cap is only $1.74B.

Who cares about revenue growth when they can just scale operating margins?


Summary: Long NBIS: robotaxi subsidiary Avride severely undervalued within parent's market cap, a sum-of-parts disconnect.

Yeah $NBIS is a fascinating sum-of-parts disconnect example where a hidden asset yet high growth self-driving robotaxi subsidiary Avride, is severely undervalued within the parent company's MC.

It's very little known to the public. But everyone is dying to get exposure to robotaxi players looking at Waymo or $TSLA.

This is just one of the side quests Nebius is doing, I was going to do a series on the others, but I personally liked Avride the most given how I'm a fan of self-driving cars.

@aleabitoreddit Wild part of the Nebius story is that the “side quest” might be the main prize.

If Avride really executes on Level 4 robotaxis with Uber, NBIS stops being just an AI infra play and starts getting valued like a mobility platform.


Summary: Bullish NBIS after blowout ARR guidance and surprise $3B META hyperscaler deal; stock should trade much higher as market prices in forward growth.

Wow, $NBIS just blew away ARR expectations on growth and just signed a surprisising $3B hyperscaler deal with $META from their ER.

They now expect $7-9B ARR 2026, which is ~2.1B+ revenue/quarter.

This is exactly how Nebius grows grow to a $100B MC and $NBIS is a generational company in the making.

In terms of general earnings:

EPS: -.52 vs -.4 (Beat by 23%)
Revenue 155.73m vs. 141.1M (Miss by 6%)

Markets are forward looking and any short term ER will be overshadowed by its immense forward growth projection.

Will do a deeper rundown when there's more time to process information but so far, this is incredibly huge with a surprise hyperscaler deal.

Stock should be up way above these levels when markets price this in.

Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year:

Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B).

If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027:

Core Business: $31B–$36.5B
Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed)
Midpoint


Good time to buy the 8% dip on $HIMS since strongly worded letters about changing up ad wording is immaterial to earnings. PT $60+ still holds from 42% SI and growing revenue.

Summary: Buy the HIMS dip; FDA letter immaterial to earnings, PT $60+ supported by 42% short interest and revenue growth.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Good time to buy the 8% dip on $HIMS since strongly worded letters about changing up ad wording is immaterial to earnings.

Short interest availability also decreased.

Main short term risk is sell the news from rate cut, but PT $60+ still holds from 42% SI and growing revenue. https://t.co/pxf4DaepzM

🚨 VERY IMPORTANT: $HIMS IS NOT THE ONLY COMPANY THAT RECEIVED WARNING LETTERS FROM THE FDA

$LLY AND $NVO ALSO RECEIVED LETTERS FOR FALSE & MISLEADING CLAIMS AND MISBRANDED PRODUCTS

$LLY received three letters -- about Zepbound and Mounjaro.

And $NVO received one letter --


Summary: Strong mid-term dip-buy on NVDA on blowout earnings and 2-year backlog; incidental Buffett $4B+ GOOGL stake flagged as bullish signal.

Nvidia ( $NVDA ) reported a blowout Q3 FY2026 revenue of $57.01 billion (+62.5% YoY).

And guided $65B+ Q4 ($3B+ beat), and $500B+ USD in Blackwell/Rubin rev through CY 2026.

Despite that, the stock dropped 12%.

Is $NVDA a strong buy now? Here's the answer:

$GOOGL TPU's program emerged as the first competitive alternative to $NVDA GPUs, with Anthropic committing to over 1 million TPU chips and Meta reportedly in advanced negotiations for billions in TPU purchases. Warren Buffet also recently invested $4B+ into $GOOGL, which is extraordinarily rare given Berkshire's conservative stance to tech investments.

Despite a record earnings beat, Nvidia's stock has declined in six of the last ten trading sessions and sits roughly 12-15% below its October 29 all-time high of $207.04, when it briefly touched a $5.03 trillion market cap.

Analyst reaction was overwhelmingly bullish, with price targets raised across the board:

- Evercore ISI raised to $352 from $261
- Bank of America raised to $275 from $235
- Citigroup raised to $270 from $220
- Goldman Sachs raised to $250 from $240
- Morgan Stanley raised to $235 from $220

But here's the trillion dollar question: will the emerging custom silicon threat from hyperscalers reduce NVIDIA dominance in AI?

Unlike $AMD, which primarily captures overflow demand when NVIDIA GPUs are unavailable, Google's TPU program represents a fundamentally different competitive dynamic.

TPU v7 Ironwood is the first non-NVIDIA accelerator that achieves performance parity with Blackwell, delivering 4.6 petaflops of FP8 performance (versus B200's 4.5 petaflops) with 192GB HBM3e memory.

Ironwood's architectural differentiation is substantial. While NVIDIA's largest cluster configuration is 72 GPUs (NVL72), TPU Ironwood scleaes to 9,216 chip pods.

The customer wins are significant and growing:

- Anthropic committed to over 1 million TPU chips worth "tens of billions of dollars," with 1 gw of compute capacity coming online.

- Meta is in advanced negotiations to rent TPU capacity from Google Cloud in 2026, with direct hardware purchases for its own data centers planned for 2027.

- Apple revealed that Apple Intelligence foundation models were trained entirely on TPUs using 8,192 TPUv4 chips for server models

- Midjourney switched from GPUs to TPUs and reduced inference costs by 65% (from $2M to $700K monthly)

The positioning is nuanced. TPUs excel at hyperscale inference with up to 4x better cost-performance for production serving at scale (for now). For training, NVIDIA is the clear advantage.

For highly optimized inference tasks, TPU architecture might remain more efficient than $NVDA's general-purpose GPU.

However, I'm expecting next-gen Nvidia GPUs to leapfrog TPUs for inference in many scenarios. (similar to how LLMs leapfrog each other GPT 5 -> Gemini 3 -> Opus 4.5)

We're seeing:

Google TPU, AWS Trainium, Meta MTIA, Microsoft Maia, and custom hyperscaler chips scale up to reliance on $NVDA. But will the cumulative effect on hyperscalers collectively reducing Nvidia's dominance?

The answer: No. Not yet.

Dominance is secured at least for the next two years. What happens after is only speculation.

Just looking at the numbers: Q3 results confirm the company remains the essential infrastructure provider for AI, with a $500 billion order backlog providing exceptional visibility through 2026.

But the market appears to be pricing in this nuanced reality 3 years+ from now: long-term competitive uncertainty with custom hyperscaler chips.

Nvidia is completely sold out of capacity, and are likely to leapfrog TPU performance in their next generation chips (higher performance for inference while being general purpose). But the custom silicon threat and valuation concerns at 44x earnings remains a headwind.

Regardless, $NVDA seems to be a strong mid term dip-buy now on fears, given the exceptional blowout earnings and backlog for the next 2 years.

This is the only thing you need to remember:

NVIDIA is a strong buy as long as it remains the industry’s first choice for AI workloads, with TPUs and AMD GPUs filling gaps when demand exceeds NVIDIA’s supply.

Nvidia is maxed out on backlog, and AI demand is not slowing down.

It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish.

Capex is ramping up. Exponentially.

And flowing directly down to:

Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN,

Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS.

Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe

Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM https://t.co/SHXJPhm4bv


Warren Buffet also recently invested $4B+ into $GOOGL, which is extraordinarily rare given Berkshire's conservative stance to tech investments


Summary: Bullish UPWK as a mispriced equity at sub-6.5x P/E with large cash and growth.

They didn't nail anything. "The present is already priced." This is literally wrong.

He's correct directionally finding alpha, but wanted to use some Instagram style inspirational quote.

If the present were always correctly priced, nobody would make money exploiting market inefficiencies.

It was free money arbitraging $BULL shares vs. warrants not too long ago due to markets not pricing things in correctly. Or tons of misvalued equities like $UPWK trading way trading under 6.5 P/E with large cash balance sheets and growth.

Druckenmiller nailed this

The present is already priced. You have to position where the fundamentals are going

That is why I leaned into AI & space in 2023 when it became clear compute would become a utility & defense would expand beyond Earth

See it early & size it correctly https://t.co/jjVtjfTtE8


Summary: Long RDDT on network effects, profitability, and M&A optionality; long RKLB toward $350B+ MC; long HOOD as the comparable fintech compounder.

Yeah quantum was always a bubble, but I don't short  given how irrational they are sometimes. As for the Internet's favorite/most hated community, I personally see the path to scale for $RDDT just how it's the 7th most popular website on the internet and it will be around for awhile just due to network effect.

Just going back to Twitter when it was public, it was valued at $40B, doing $3.7-5B yearly revenue (with negative FCF) growing roughly 20-30% Y/Y.  $RDDT is doing $585m quarterly revenue, 91% gross margins, 236M EBITDA (40% of revenue) ~34B valuation.

And given it's not at the scale of $META where every acquisition has global anti-trust lawyers on their asses, I just see Reddit with the potential to grow like $HOOD where they're printing money so close to after IPO and keeps on expanding margins.  So they can just focus on expanding revenue/acquisitions with their sticky userbase (eg. how Robinhood acquired crypto exchanges).

Yeah $RKLB has such a clear trajectory toward $350B+ MC like SpaceX since there's so many applications you can do with Space + huge national security risk so lot of investments will pour into the sector.

---

Also similar thesis to $HOOD (fintech) for $RDDT (social media)

Sticky customer base, extreme profitability -> new product launches for that customer base ->  acquisitions through profitability -> grow revenue.

$RDDT -> sticky customer base, extreme profitability -> new product launches (not really, but kinda in a sense, like selling data for AI)  ->  acquisitions through profitability (missing) -> grow revenue.

Reddit only achieved consistent profitability this quarter, so I'm hoping acquisitions through profits would drive forward revenue like how Facebook grew acquiring whatsapp/instagram in the next few quarters.

---

So for examples:

$RDDT should try and acquire $SNAP then turn it profitable (easy) by cutting AR segments, management, cutting GCP costs. (Regulators wouldn’t block this but they’d block $META acquiring it).

Then go out and launch new products like what X does with banking. Reddit had some sparks of life with their NFT marketplace stuff, but they never followed through.


$RKLB has such a clear trajectory toward $350B+ MC like SpaceX since there's so many applications you can do with Space + huge national security risk so lot of investments will pour into the sector


similar thesis to $HOOD (fintech) for $RDDT (social media)


Summary: Bullish on NBIS LEAPs; expects OTM $120 strike calls to print.

@soulbiri1 I think these $NBIS leaps are going to print! Just a matter of time, I like the OTM $120 strike, good choice

@aleabitoreddit Bought 20 more LEAPs, OTM this time. https://t.co/IdL0D65O4B


Summary: Exited long ALAB and opened a short, viewing FOMO buying as exit liquidity after the insane recent run.

@__visionxry__ Yeah I used this time to exit and open up a short. People are probably FOMO buying so good exit liquidity.

My cost average was like $99 so can’t complain about 100%+ return in 2 months

@aleabitoreddit "Fred Alger Management LLC Increases Position in Astera Labs, Inc. $ALAB"

Think this is what sent it up so much today. Its definitely had an insane run lately


Nebius は市場でも屈指の高成長企業となるのです

Summary: Long NBIS as a top-growth company with data center and Avride robotaxi (L4, partnered with Uber) as a high-growth hidden subsidiary; TSLA noted as a robotaxi exposure play.

素晴らしい投稿ですね。そして、日本で祝っているなら、ハッピーサンクスギビング！

主張の核心は、ロボタクシーは数兆ドル規模の巨大市場であり、その分野へのエクスポージャーを求めて人々は $TSLA や $GOOGL に投資しているという点です。

しかし、テスラ、アマゾン、グーグル、ヒュンダイの5つの主要プレーヤーのうち、多くの人が知らないもう1社、 $NBIS  傘下の Avride はレベル4の完全自動運転を持っています。そしてこの企業は、7年にわたる開発と研究開発投資を経て $UBER と共に商用化へ向けて動き出し、Waymo や Tesla と競争しようとしています。

このように、コアであるデータセンタービジネスと並行して超高速で成長する無名の子会社を抱えている場合、Nebius は市場でも屈指の高成長企業となるのです。

"Nebius（ $NBIS ）の中核事業は“常識外れ”だ。

1年で 前年比700％超成長し、ARRは70〜90億ドル に到達。

だが、さらに“常識外れ”なのはここからだ。

Nebiusの子会社のほうが、本体を上回る成長を見せる可能性がある。🤯

理由はこうだ：


人々は $TSLA や $GOOGL に投資しているという点です


Here's how to profit off US invading Iran. Department of War stocks: $OSS - Edge AI

Summary: Long defense pure-plays OSS, AVAV, BA, NOC, RTX, KTOS as direct beneficiaries of anticipated US military intervention in Iran.

Urgent: US Government: “Leave Iran Now”.

This implies direct US intervention.

The last event was with GBU-57A/B MOPs.

Here’s how to profit off US invading Iran.

Department of War stocks:

$OSS - Edge AI
$AVAV - Drone Strikes
$BA, $NOC, $RTX - Bunker Bombs
$KTOS - Valkyries for drawing enemy fire, jam radars, and lead F-35s and B-21s

It’s pretty simple. Especially following US invasion of Venezuela.

There’s likely a lot of market volatility but the largest beneficiaries are pure play War verticals.


$KTOS - Valkyries for drawing enemy fire, jam radars, and lead F-35s and B-21s


Summary: Bullish both CIFR (great buy, high upside, smaller market cap) and NBIS (preferred for faster revenue ramp).

@waelanwar1111 CIFR is $NBIS-light in terms of hyperscaler contracts with $GOOGL instead of $MSFT, non-toxic debt.

Obviously prefer Nebius because of faster forward revenue ramp, but CIFR is a great buy given its smaller marketcap, high upside.

@aleabitoreddit @DeepValueBagger What do you think about $CIFR? I have small position already at 11.7$


Obviously prefer Nebius because of faster forward revenue ramp


Summary: Bullish OSS on Bressner sale unlocking pure-play defense re-rating to premium contractor multiple; also bullish AIRO on $1.5T defense spend tailwind.

Nuanced, the Bressner sale is extremely extremely positive. I didn’t enter $OSS originally because that division messed up blended margin calculations.

But after discovering their pure play defense vertical and margins, I realized it was extraordinarily specialized. Market will realize that too and re-rate it from commodity status to a high tech dod contractor premium.

Algorithmically they might misunderstand from revenue changes but the people who long the stock will see this as incredibly positive on their position scaling a high margin, demand > capacity vertical.

Then there’s the $1.5T in defense spend following down to this small defense contractor and drone companies like $AIRO, so just bullish all around on the stock (esp as we transition to robotics)

@aleabitoreddit Do you think the sale of Bressner will cause a big revenue hit next earnings (given that it brought in the majority of revenue for the company)? Although it’s now going to be grow margins a lot faster, we know what Wall Street are like


just bullish all around on the stock (esp as we transition to robotics)


Summary: Long CIFR on AWS+Google deals; short IREN on worse-than-expected margins and asset-purchase model; NBIS deal superior vs IREN on profitability/margins.

For $CIFR, doesn't matter about current earnings, market prices in forward earnings. And at first glance AWS deal looks amazing on top of their existing $GOOGL deals through Fluidstack. So well deserving of their 20% bump.

For $IREN on the other hand, the contract worse and worse when you examine it more.

Revenue does not matter. FCF/margins from that revenue is what matters, especially since they're spending $5.8bn GPUs. I've seen some conservative-case calculations where they generate ~Annualized operating profit 98m+/year, which is really low.

Even so optimistically, gross margins are in the <30s or even 20s, and not the 90%+ HPC segments that others are quoting. This is the reality of margins at scale.

IREN is buying the asset, rather than the colocation service people kept claiming $IREN would do.

$NBIS deal with MSFT was extremely better than IREN’s in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW. But of course I need to spend more time on modeling.

@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on CIFR; they missed targets in their report, and their $5.5B is 15 years!


the contract worse and worse when you examine it more... gross margins are in the <30s or even 20s, and not the 90%+ HPC segments that others are quoting... IREN is buying the asset, rather than the colocation service people kept claiming $IREN would do.


$NBIS deal with MSFT was extremely better than IREN's in terms of profitability and margins when normalized to 300 MW.


The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bull-case PT is still $400. Fundamentals and data center growth have not changed, they've only gotten exponentially better. These are the best times go long and this where generational money is made in markets.

Summary: Long NBIS with $400 PT; -17% dip on no news doesn't change conviction; hyperscaler deals + 1000% Y/Y revenue growth ahead.

The -17% dip in $NBIS on no material news doesn't change any conviction. My bull-case PT is still $400.

We've seen this move before:

- $ASTS ER drop from $58 -> $36, into $83.

- $GOOGL AI search drop from $170 -> $144 into $257.

- $HOOD Macro drop from $40 -> $28, into $135

When fundamentals and industry momentum stay intact, conviction pays off despite any short-term drop.

Hyperscalers from META, GOOGL, MSFT, are pouring billions into AI data centers, and Nebius is powering the  cash cows of Mag7 with more hyperscaler deals likely to come. Forward quarterly revenue is set to explode 1000% Y/Y. This type of growth is almost unheard of in history.

Institutional ownership is low (38.3% of the float) and every trick in the book will be played to acquire more shares off retail as the company grows.

Fundamentals and data center growth have not changed, they've only gotten exponentially better. (eg. new Nebius Israel data center announcement today, growing ARR).

These are the best times go long and this where generational money is made in markets.

Initiated a small position ($50k shares, $50k April calls) in T1 Energy $TE $4.45, partly because I like League of Legends and Faker.

I have energy positions such as $FLNC, SEI and $EOSE (trimmed) that performed very well.

But like the rest, energy is pointed to benefit from


they ended up trying to compete vs $CRWV in the full-stack by buying billions in GPUs... execution risk for IREN skyrocketed immensely

Summary: Bearish IREN on execution risk from full-stack pivot; bullish NBIS on enterprise customers/balance sheet; bullish CIFR as insulated from GPU depreciation concerns.

Thanks, yeah I had $IREN as S tier when I did my tierlist earlier but they got downgraded a lot because they ended up trying to compete vs $CRWV in the full-stack by buying billions in GPUs. A lot of IREN holders were arguing colo was most profitable, but in $IREN's earnings call, they literally said they were buying GPUs and doing the full-stack due to "higher revenue potential and stronger returns".

It's much, much harder building out the software layer than people think and the execution risk for IREN skyrocketed immensely. Meanwhile $NBIS and $CRWV already has that nailed down ( $NBIS wins vs. $CRWV per their whitepaper) but Coreweave messed up with interest debt + OpenAI drama.

Unfortunately we're seeing a whole sector short despite many of the nuances eg. $CIFR not being affected by GPU depreciation arguments.

Or $NBIS having Mag7 + enterprise customers over 5Y periods + strong balance sheet and not affected by AI bubble OpenAI fiasco with $ORCL + credit tightening.

@aleabitoreddit Really appreciate your detailed response!

CoLo is one of the reasons I chose $CIFR over $IREN and why its my second largest holding, I like how they understand its better to play with their strengths

The way you explain the NeoCloud nuance is great too! I am really interested


$NBIS having Mag7 + enterprise customers over 5Y periods + strong balance sheet and not affected by AI bubble OpenAI fiasco


$CIFR not being affected by GPU depreciation arguments


Summary: High-conviction multi-bagger basket for 2026: long NBIS, RKLB, ALAB, CRCL, LITE across AI compute, space, connectivity, and hyperscaler ASICs.

I’ve added 2 new stocks to my extreme growth high conviction basket in my personal portfolio.

I’ve never been wrong before about high conviction stocks on longer timeframes (eg. $HOOD $18 -> $100+)

My 5 high conviction multi-bagger stocks for 2026 are now:

$NBIS -  AI Compute and Robotaxis

$RKLB - Space

$ALAB - Connectivity

And the two new ones are:

$CRCL - Money Printer

$LITE - Hyperscaler ASICs

I’ll do longer DD thesis on Circle and Lite on follow ups.

I’m confident having just these 5 will heavily outperform 99.9% of portfolios.


Summary: Shares/endorses Craig-Hallum Buy re-rate on AXTI to $26 PT (+160%), with upside scenario to $37.50-$50+ on supply shock / strategic monopoly thesis.

Just in: Craig-Hallum re-rates $AXTI to "Buy" with a $26 price target, a 160% increase.

They stated AXT benefits from a "trifecta of dynamics" that put:

- constraints on competitors (Sumitomo, JX)
- while increasing capacity after Northland's Capital raise.

Shannon, ranked as the #1 Semiconductor Analyst on WSJ, pegs AXT at $0.75 EPS by 2028, applying a 30x multiple by assuming AXT is a "normal" growth company.

Critical defense/AI supply chains (like Heico or specialized chip firms) can easily trade at 50x-60x, which would set $AXTI at a $37.50 PT (for a growth company).

However, if the "Supply Shock" thesis holds and $AXT becomes a strategic monopoly, the math completely breaks like $MU or Sandisk, and we might see a massive re-rating upward.

This is a "Step-Ladder" valuation, analysts typically walk the target up. If $AXTI goes to $28 next week, he will likely issue a new note raising it to $32.

Institutions are validating the thesis, but are trailing both the price and alpha on X.

Markets are witnessing a supply shock happen real time with InP.

Here's the timeline this week:

Fastmarket Research, 2025:

US-based $AXTI and Japan's Sumitomo control nearly 80% of the InP market.

China Commerce Ministry - Jan 6 2026: China announces new export https://t.co/piaM9hnEw2


$UAVS is a hidden gem. I'll take positions thanks

Summary: Views UAVS as a hidden gem and intends to take positions.

@KAnalyser1 Woah $UAVS is a hidden gem. I’ll take positions thanks

@aleabitoreddit $UAVS , might find it interesting


Nebius's MSFT deal gives it ~19–20% higher revenue per MW-year than IREN's MSFT deal

Summary: NBIS commands higher revenue/MW than IREN today; IREN could close the margin gap if it adds software/IaaS layer.

Yep! Definitely some helpful points about the revenue premium. But I think the nuance did show up in the $MSFT deal (which shows the margin difference between $NBIS and $IREN per MW).

Nebius’s MSFT deal gives it ~19–20% higher revenue per MW-year than IREN’s MSFT deal. A lot of the gross margin figures are inflated by balance sheet accounting, hence why I made this post to normalize margins.

$IREN 's realized levered irr is probably closer to 20%, it's probably better to use that over the 85% project EBITDA figures since they're spending billions with Dell.

$MSFT values $NBIS full AI cloud platform more from an educated guess (mix of location closer to azure servers and  software). If $IREN closed the software on top level and iaas level, its future margins/contracts could close that gap.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for the thoughtful take! Just wanted to add a few data points to the discussion (all from recent public sources, NFA/DYOR):Revenue premium from software layer


If $IREN closed the software on top level and iaas level, its future margins/contracts could close that gap


Summary: Likes GAP for seasonal tailwinds and brand appeal around this time of year.

@AndyA143597 For $GAP, I do like it and I like Banana Republic personally. It's a stock that benefits from seasonality around this time too.

$UPWK, $TGT, $UNH, $LULU were value investing port holders but I'll need to look more to see if there's any material impact from macro/tarrifs.

@aleabitoreddit Nice, I'm following you all the way on $NBIS lol
I recently saw a DD on $GAP on WSB. Do you have any opinion on the stock?


Summary: Bullish AXTI: critical InP substrate monopoly for AI buildout, very little permit risk in 2026; near-irreplaceable once competitor inventory depletes.

@gemm_fc Very little risk for 2026 calendar year. Made some comments here.

If $AXTI stopped exporting InP substrates, the AI buildout would not be able to ramp.

AXT would effectively become a monopoly once inventory runs out for competitors

https://t.co/P8LVlt2RkK

@aleabitoreddit Any risk for AXT's permit on InP?


Summary: Long AXTI as the only NASDAQ pure-play on InP bottleneck with a 12-month China-export-restriction-free runway through Nov 2026.

Something retail probably doesn't know is that China announced a 1Y suspension of its total export ban on gallium and germanium to the US, effective until Nov 27, 2026.

With the $AXTI $100m offering, institutions probably interpreted this as a 12 month runway for AXT to capitalize on the InP price frenzy before the "truce" expires and China introduces export restrictions.

Since AXT is at the center of the InP bottleneck, one year of unhindered ramp is enough of an upside. And Northland prob saw as is the only major pure-play listed on the NASDAQ that gives investors direct exposure to this material bottleneck.

TLDR: The risk is always there, but not likely to be present until Nov 27th next year. Of course if $AXTI cannot export, the AI buildout stalls too and there's more issues to worry about.

@aleabitoreddit What about the possibility of
China export restrictions?


Summary: Long AXTI through mid-2026; expects HBM-style supply squeeze in InP substrates, low dilution risk post-Northland raise, and rising margins from vertical cost ownership.

私は個人的に、世界のInP基板（Indium Phosphide substrate）供給能力の約30%、および**インジウム・リン（Indium Phosphide）原料については約25〜30%**をカバーしていると試算しています。

$AXTI CEOが「サプライチェーンの40%を握っている」と発言した点については、彼の方がより内部情報を持っているはずなので、今後の増産を織り込めばその水準に達する可能性はあると思います。一方で、ウェブサイトに記載されている60%という数字はやや過大に見えます。

私は2026年半ばまで保有する予定で、その頃にはHBMと同様の供給逼迫（サプライスクイーズ）が起きると見ています。また、Northlandによる1億ドルの資金調達後は希薄化リスクが低い点も評価しています。
さらに、一部の非公開・有料データでは、これらのベンダーが欧米向けに価格を引き上げていることが示されており、マージンも上昇すると予想しています。これは見過ごされがちな隠れたアルファ要因で、$AXTIはコスト構造全体を自社で保有しているため、価格上昇はそのまま大幅な利益率改善につながるからです。

最大のリスク要因は中国当局による許認可（パーミッティング）ですが、それこそがこれほど重要なボトルネックを握っていながら時価総額が10億ドル未満に抑えられている理由です。
もしサプライチェーンがすべて米国に存在していれば、評価額が100億ドル規模になっても不思議ではないと考えています。

@aleabitoreddit ありがとう！
日本の情報元では６割になってた！多分このサイト側のミスだね👇
確かに、リスクも高いので出来高が落ちれば一旦利確するつもりだよ🧐

https://t.co/pR8cQkUei9


I bought $150k+ in shares… Naruto/UPWK is about to have some serious plot armor in the upcoming weeks and months

Summary: Bought $150k+ in UPWK; expects significant upside in coming weeks/months based on chart pattern thesis.

Why I bought $150k in $UPWK.

Here is UPWORK, UPWK and my explanation on why I bought $150k+ in shares.

At first, you see what looks like a CAT. It starts off with the two ears. Looks like a cat right?

Wrong. This is the NINE TAILED FOX Pattern, not just any cat. https://t.co/BUYY3BncTs

---

So as usual with the destruction of the hidden leaf village, UPWK had some rebuilding to do. A massive dump candle hits like Pain himself.

But what they don’t see… is that the chart needed this. Naruto HAS ARRIVED. You can see his hairline being formed in the chart.

---

Which means, Naruto/UPWK is about to have some serious plot armor in the upcoming weeks and months.

You know what comes next. Naruto meets Tsunade. They didn't show this in the show but there's a bouncy entrance and the Chakara Massage. There's a happy ending to Naruto.


Summary: Long LITE (OCS/TPU monopoly), AAOI (MSFT Maia/Amazon Trainium ramp), and COHR as InP/photonics bottleneck plays into 2026-2027 ASIC ramps.

$AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today.

From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs.

AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium.

InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 as they’re the foundational materials used for lasers in these deployments.

Similar to memory bottlenecks with Micron and SK Hynix, we’ll likely see attention drawn to InP fabs, such as $AAOI, which happens to be one of the sole ones in America (COHR,Macom)

But compared to $LITE that is up 362% YTD due to the success of Google’s TPU (from Meta and Anthropic purchase orders), $AAOI is only up 7% YTD.

We’re largely seeing this because there’s a lack of retail or media attention on the $AMZN Trainium or $MSFT Maia deployments, which are largely expected to ramp up in 2026-2027.

However they’re all likely to succeed due to each hyperscaler wanting to lower costs of inference for their own cloud platform.

If we see other hyperscalers adopt OCS for optimized performance that the TPU achieved, expect $LITE to re-rate more than they have now given their monopoly in that specific segment.

However, if we see $MSFT Maia ramp up (given $AAOI is likely developing a new architecture for them), and $AMZN Trainium ramp up ($4B warrant + purchase orders), expect $AAOI to rerate.

Photonics and InP will be the new bottleneck like memory.

We’ll likely see investments pour down stream to players like $COHR, Innolight, $LITE, and hidden levered plays on specific hyperscaler ASICs like $AAOI as a theme in 2026.

The market is currently rewarding the Google TPU supply chain but might be missing other hyperscaler ASIC ramps.

The $LITE thesis: The hidden monopoly in the AI.

Lumentum is up 316% YTD, but might be 1000%+ by 2027.

Micron ($300B) or TSM ($1.5T) sit in the center of every TPU/GPU deployed.

But same with $LITE, but it's a $26B MC.

In Every, Single, TPU from Google, $LITE makes https://t.co/qSDQrISbv4


We'll likely see investments pour down stream to players like $COHR, Innolight, $LITE, and hidden levered plays on specific hyperscaler ASICs like $AAOI as a theme in 2026


Summary: Comfortable holding GME or selling puts at current prices; sees good value, ignores bearish analyst consensus.

@LibertadEterno I'd be comfortable selling puts or holding GME stock around current prices. Probably ignore the analysts on this one, seems like good value.

Otherwise, future really depends on what the CEO wants to do with the massive cash pile.

@aleabitoreddit Appreciate all the analysis. Thoughts on GME?


much better risk-reward on stuff like data center buildout since it's almost for sure revenue based on execution with mag7 backstopping companies

Summary: Long data center buildout names (IREN, CRWV) and quantum (IONQ) on sector uplift from popular themes; also holds MP in rare minerals; favors data center as best risk-reward.

Vertiv Holdings trades as VRT; data center context confirms

Heavily agree, critical minerals are really complex. When I buy stuff like $MP I usually use ChatGPT deep research to help me understand risk-reward tradeoffs better.

But when I buy random lithium battery small caps and post about it I admit I don’t have domain knowledge. But like your Neocloud post about $IREN usually a popular domain like AI buildout with $CRWV or something like Quantum with $IONQ will uplift an entire sector anyway.

So risk-reward is sometimes worth it but I wouldn’t follow what I do and wouldn’t put much portfolio weighting into it either.

And it’s a much better risk-reward on stuff like data center buildout since it’s almost for sure revenue based on execution with mag7 backstopping companies.

Commentary on the rare minerals stocks

I went deep dive into the rare minerals, basically asking first principle questions to understand the sector better.

My conclusion is the sector is too complex to invest in. There's all kind of rare minerals (dozen of types), and https://t.co/oHi8jEpOns


a popular domain like AI buildout with $CRWV


something like Quantum with $IONQ will uplift an entire sector anyway


when I buy stuff like $MP I usually use ChatGPT deep research to help me understand risk-reward tradeoffs better

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'


Summary: Long NBIS; sees potential to reach $100B market cap.

@mvcinvesting Congrats on getting into $NBIS early, it’s never easy to spot the right speculative plays.

I joined a bit later and built a position after the $MSFT deal. I see the potential for it to be a $100B company.

Today, $NBIS reached a new all-time high and became a 4-bagger in my portfolio.

My first shares were bought on January 13th, with many more added since then.

I also crossed 100% YTD returns.

It’s been a tough few days on a personal level, but at least something is going well.


Summary: Strong long NBIS: $24B MC with $8B forward ARR, 700%+ YoY growth, $10B+ NAV, targeting 30% EBITDA margins; projected next $100B+ company.

If you have any iota of doubt during this market correction.

Remember this:

$NBIS is a $24B MC company doing $8B forward ARR, targeting 30% EBITDA margins.

Nebius core business powers Mag7 Hyperscalers from $MSFT to $META, enterprises from Shopify to Cursor to Accenture, and Government AI Infrastructure.

They have $10B+ NAV with hyper-growth portfolio companies powering Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic.

And of course, Nebius is growing 700%+ Y/Y, which is almost unheard of going from $125M quarterly revenue to $2B+ in just 1 year.

This company is the at the Center of the whole Artificial Intelligence buildout at $93, and is set to be the next  $100B+ company.

Do not let broad sell-offs affect your conviction.

Northland announced a $NBIS $205 price target off the assumption of $2-4B ARR for CY2026 back in September.

From their same economics used, we would now get an 1Y PT:

~$355.00/share (+248.04%)

off Nebius's earnings report with $7-9B ARR projected

Here's the updated metrics: https://t.co/D2noDwgafM


Nebius is NOT Coreweave 2.0 — highest diversification in the Neocloud market, $4.8B+ in cash, ~$76.6M/yearly from note structure 40%+ OTM at ~2% interest, 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y

Summary: Author rebuts Hedgeye's NBIS short by contrasting it favorably vs CRWV on diversification, cash, and debt structure; implicitly long NBIS, bearish CRWV.

A short seller firm @Hedgeye is now shorting Nebius $NBIS. The stock price is now $97.8.

Their claim? Nebius is Coreweave 2.0.

Coreweave [ $CRWV ]:

- Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI.

- $1.8B in cash left

- $1.3B+/yearly in debt interest from toxic financing at 8-10% interest.

Same thing as Nebius right?

Nebius [ $NBIS ]:

- Highest diversification in the Neocloud market of customers from $META, $MSFT, governments, $SHOP, Mistral, $NOW, and many others.

- $4.8B+ in cash left

- ~$76.6M/yearly from note structure 40%+ OTM at ~2% interest.

- FSD level 4 Robotaxi self driving car segment that is of critical importance to $UBER (last round $375M with $UBER) to compete vs Waymo.

- AI training segments funded by Bezos and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others

- 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies from $TSLA, $NET, Tiktok, $META and so on use

- 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y alongside their core operational business, with Tripleten/Toloka adding to net income every year.

Same company.

CALL INVITE -> Adding Tactical Short $NBIS; Growing $MSFT Risk

You don't want to miss this one.
https://t.co/zo3VjxK8CW


Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI. $1.8B in cash left. $1.3B+/yearly in debt interest from toxic financing at 8-10% interest.


Summary: Bullish broad market short-term into rate-cut frontrunning, then sell the news on the 17th.

@WatcherGuru IMO bullish short term, frontrunning rate cut, then sell the news on 17th.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US PPI falls to 2.6%, lower than expectations.


Summary: Highest-conviction long hold on RKLB over 5-year horizon despite acknowledging overvaluation.

@SpaceSector001 $RKLB is my highest conviction stock over 5 years but it's really overvalued tbh.

I just learned to not trade this anymore and hold.

I have no words.... $RKLB https://t.co/ekKK478r8I


Summary: Bullish NBIS on Avride undervaluation vs Waymo; also sees UBER benefiting from Avride partnership defensibility.

Probably around $6B now as per the seeking alpha report benchmarked vs Nuro.

But I'd say Avride is crown jewel of $NBIS, not clickhouse, especially when robotaxi companies like Waymo scaled to a $100B+ valuation in a short time.

$TSLA gained hundreds of billions in value just due robotaxi launch (eg. Cathie Wood said robotaxis could be 90% of tesla's value) and it's a market with extreme upside due to lack of players.

There's basically just $TSLA, $GOOGL Waymo, $AMZN Zoox, Hyundai... and then $UBER which is trying to defend themselves against robotaxi competition.

$UBER has the upmost importance to scale its defensibility with Avride instead of partnering with Waymo -> funneling customers into the other app. (eg. why they joint invested $375M).

Given how $NBIS owns 83% of avride, if it scales to ~$45B MC, which was Waymo's valuation BACK in October 2024.... That's literally more than Nebius's marketcap today lol, and it just launched in Texas.

Funds like Hedgeye probably aren't accounting for SOP growth and are vastly underestimating Nebius.

@aleabitoreddit @Hedgeye From what I've seen Avride worth about $3B.  Clickhouse the crown jewel.


$UBER has the upmost importance to scale its defensibility with Avride instead of partnering with Waymo


Summary: Bearish AMBA: Tesla's custom chip development likely to displace Ambarella from the Optimus supply chain.

Elon cannot build out Optimus supply chain from scratch since it's impossible. Maybe in 15 years.

He is likely talking about vertical integration from design/assembly.

Tesla is still bottlenecked by magnets $MP, black diamond from $LPTH, frame materials from $SYSS, linear actuators from Sanhua, and others advanced materials and fab suppliers.

Stuff like $AMBA, which is higher up on the chain might get cut off as Tesla makes their custom chips.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you for this post :) Elon talks a lot about having to build the Optimus supply chain from scratch, especially regarding actuators. Does that simply mean that Tesla will design the actuators and parts but not necessarily manufacture all of them? I never thought about that.


Summary: High-conviction long NBIS on locked-in MSFT contracts, more hyperscaler deals coming, and revenue set to ramp from $100M to $1.5-2B quarterly.

I first bought $HOOD at $11.47 and watched it grow 1000%+ to a 125B+ MC. Scaling from $150M to 1B quarterly revenue over years.

I thought this was insane until I saw $NBIS.

This 30B company is about to go from $100m quarterly revenue to $1.5-2B quarterly revenue the next year or two.

This type of growth is mind numbing. If you're afraid of buying on a 7%+ increase day, just look at forward revenue ramp. The contracts with MSFT are locked in and there's more hyperscaler contracts coming.

I only have single digit high conviction longs about Nebius is one of them.

Be a part of history this time.

As expected, with META and their recent 14B deal with CRWV + MSFT with their 17B deal with $NBIS, billions to trillions will pour into Neoclouds from Mag7 when they're unable to handle new AI compute.

Expects companies like AWS, ORCL and others to make more deals soon with https://t.co/KHRSiwoXOY


Summary: Bullish on NBIS; prefers it over uncertain SEA-contract exposure, focusing on hyperscaler-backed contracts.

@adenois @RJCcapital Yeah I could be wrong and the stock pulls a random 100% green candle but should just trust my gut about the $1.4B deal with a random SEA company next time.

Lot safer to look at hyperscaler $MSFT type contracts and just focus on $NBIS and co.

@aleabitoreddit @RJCcapital Yes I know. I got uncomfortable holding the stock too with the limited visibility into SEA. Was just checking if you know more now. $NBIS is the only stock I bought before you at $20ish. Otherwise your research is the starting point for all my DDs, thanks.


Summary: PYPL fairly valued with upside but not a preferred long; lukewarm bullish.

@fossinvest Uhh just from your thesis I don’t really see $PYPL being a large part of agentic payments mainly due to chargebacks and I have seen anyone use PayPal USD yet.

That aside is it fairly valued with upside? Yep.

Are there better longs? Yep.

That’s just my overall take.

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on Paypal?
https://t.co/MQdP3c0cTU


I've initiated a position in $OSS. I usually never say this but, this one is exciting. This looks like an unholy long to me

Summary: Initiated long position in OSS: 45% gross margins, $41M cash vs $155M MC, combat-validated drone/AI defense contractor with 2.4x demand-to-supply backlog.

I've initiated a position in $OSS.

I usually never say this but, this one is exciting.

Markets completely missed this 155M MC Drone Swarm, Ghost Fleet, USVs, Edge AI deploying US DoD contractor.

And they especially missed OSS’s involvement in the Venezuela's invasion, that gave premiums to $AVAV and others.

This looks like an unholy long to me:

1.  $41M cash (pro forma ets.) / $155M MC (low downside risk).
2. Pure play Kinetic Defense
3. 1 : 2.4x supply/demand. (backlogged from high demand)
4. 45% gross margins.

The main interest was Venezuela as proof they're actively being used in the US military:

$OSS P-8 Poseidon in Venezuela:

- Flight tracking data confirmed that P-8A Poseidon aircraft from Patrol Squadron 40 (VP-40) were off the coast of Venezuela during the raid to monitor Venezuelan naval movements.

OSS Link: On July 1 2025, OSS announced a $5M urgent order specifically to deliver "61 Rugged Data Units" for the P-8A Poseidon.

SOCOM "Capture Team":

- The raid to capture leadership was executed by US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), specifically using maritime insertion teams (likely SEALs/SWCC) and the 160th SOAR (helicopters).

OSS Link: On May 29, 2025, OSS signed a (CRADA) directly with USSOCOM to build edge computers for Maritime Environments. OSS built the battle-tracking servers for the stealth boats used to slip into the Venezuelan coast.

"Ghost Fleet" Blockade:

- "Operation Southern Spear" is currently using unmanned surface vessels (drone boats) to block oil tankers.

OSS Link: The Navy's "Task Force 59" (and the newer 4th Fleet equivalent) uses the $OSS Rigel Edge Supercomputer for these drones because it is one of the few AI servers small enough to fit on a 40-foot robot boat.

This is literally combat validation in Venezuela. Of a small $155M stock.

Before everyone treated this company as a commodity like $SMCI (myself included), but I completely missed that their defense vertical (which is pure-play now after the Bressner sale) has 45.6% gross margins.

Only after I looked into it again after did I realize their other division was completely messing up margin calculations because of blended margins (from just re-selling defense gear).

So now we have a:

~45% margins, AI military contractor valued at $155M business with $41m cash, with demand outstripping supply 2.4 to 1.

I did an analysis later last year, which looked like $OSS was a supplier for Andruil or $PLTR, and was beginning their ramp up.

Looking at it again post-sale, the 45% margin puts them into extremely stellar territory (compared to eg. Lockheed Martin, 12-14%) or commodity sellers (eg. $SMCI, $DELL 8-14%)

This is a specialized war-validated defense AI pure-play for drone swarms, ghost fleets, USVs, and others, with extremely high margins, at $155M MC.

I've found this to be an exciting re-discovery, so I've taken a position.

I’ve taken a position in $AIRO and it’s up +23% since this post 3 days ago.

Markets still don’t know about this Aerospace & Defense stock, despite $ONDS hype.

It’s a drone stock ~$300m MC, with $120m+ est. for 2026 (~2.5 fwd p/s)

Others trade at 30-40+ multiples and bigger https://t.co/HxgEzUXKZE


$MSFT deal with $NBIS is is confirmed with $17B, since it's Microsoft so NBIS is undervalued

Summary: NBIS undervalued given confirmed $17B Microsoft deal backing.

@taleino93 @unusual_whales I genuinely don’t know which direction to go with $ORCL.

Oracle’s deal was with OpenAi, which doesn’t even have 300B.

$MSFT deal with $NBIS is is confirmed with $17B, since it’s Microsoft so NBIS is undervalued.

Time will tell if OpenAI can pay up.

@aleabitoreddit Do you see the same logic working in $ORCL? To me drawdown looks like 'tutes profit taking, but the $WBD & $PSKY merger may drive retail to pour into $ORCL. Only thing stopping me is the put (bought at ask) interest on $WBD and $PSKY is high today  (@unusual_whales)


Summary: Long OSS: expects re-rating as specialized high-margin ruggedized AI/edge military hardware provider, driven by $1.5T defense spending tailwinds.

Thanks for sharing, $OSS is used across many US military deployments already with usage  validation in Venezuela.

Markets largely ignored this one earlier because of blended margins (thought to be a commodity reseller). And not putting the pieces together from their earlier contracts.

After selling off some segments, $OSS now starts to like a specialized, high margin, ruggedized hardware provider for AI and edge military deployments.

That being said smaller caps do carry risk but I do expect this to be re-rated given the tailwinds from the proposed $1.5T department of war spend.

$OSS thesis is very real.

It’s a small cap with various risks, but the thread below does a good job explaining what’s going on here.

Edge compute may be one of the largest themes of 2026.

Prototype contract they got last week is what’s probably continuing to bring more


their current penny stock pricing probably doesn't price in their BOM share of every Trainium and Maia cluster they're a part of + InP fab optionally in US

Summary: Cautiously bullish AAOI: current penny-stock price doesn't reflect BOM share in Trainium/Maia clusters and InP fab optionality, if execution risk is overcome.

Well not exactly, they have a history of execution failures with $AMZN dropping them as a client many years ago.

But if they can execute this time around given their new golden ticket of copper -> photonics and supply constants like memory, their current penny stock pricing probably doesn’t price in their BOM share of every Trainium and Maia cluster they’re a part of + InP fab optionally in US.

@aleabitoreddit So everything what you write sounds for me we should be long in $AAOI


slightly disagree. It's a lot less versatile than you think as 2026 contract renegotiation with $CRCL is coming up. But that exchange segment would likely get cannibalized by $HOOD and zero fee exchanges like Bitfinex in the long run. And I'm pretty sure Circle will find a way in the long run.

Summary: Bearish COIN on USDC rev-split risk and exchange cannibalization; prefers Circle as pure-play at $18B and implies HOOD as a beneficiary.

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'

For $COIN, slighty disagree. It's a lot less versatile than you think as 2026 contract renegotiation with $CRCL is coming up.

Right now Coinbase benefits from  50% USDC rev split + exchange business. Then there's value derived from Custody (eg. Blackrock ETFs).  But that exchange segment would likely get cannibalized by $HOOD and zero fee exchanges like Bitfinex in the long run.

As for that 50% revenue split of the golden egg: there's legal loopholes for Circle to depeg from Coinbase. And I'm pretty sure Circle will find a way in the long run.

Eg. Genius Act, explicitly bans stablecoin issuers from paying interest to holders -> using that to legally stop paying them a split.

Or the 50/50 split to drop to something like 75/25 from contract negotiation by 2027.

But you can get pure play asymmetry with the direct issuer for $18B or the exchange-add on for $66B.

@aleabitoreddit I think Coin is a better play - it's much more versatile and profitable.


you can get pure play asymmetry with the direct issuer for $18B


that exchange segment would likely get cannibalized by $HOOD and zero fee exchanges like Bitfinex in the long run


Summary: Bullish VIRT via options on low IV; risk/reward looks attractive.

@__visionxry__ IV is extremely low though options are a bit more illiquid for $VIRT. Spread isn't the worst I've seen.

Shares are safest bet but not going to return a 40%, I'm doing options since I like them on low IV stocks. Risk reward just seems good to me after looking into it more. https://t.co/Y5HqyhHixB

@aleabitoreddit What do you think of the idea of being slightly leveraged (maybe 10% of ports worth) seems like its worth it to pay the interest if you believe the trade is worth it


It's an easy low-risk hold until it trades $17-23. $UPWK is high profitable, growing margins, strong cash position and just raised guidance so selling at $13-$14 is stupid.

Summary: Long UPWK to $17-23 target; profitable, growing margins, strong cash, raised guidance make selling here stupid.

@Alan_24z It's an easy low-risk hold until it trades $17-23. There's too much open interest expiring in 8 days so expect shorting/gamma hedging.

$UPWK is high profitable, growing margins, strong cash position and just raised guidance so selling at $13-$14 is stupid.


Summary: Adding AMKR; names MediaTek, CLS, JBL, and AMKR as TPU v7 supply chain beneficiaries.

@B38B37 Yeah memory is. Also needed to add MediaTek( I/o chiplet), $CLS, $JBL, and $AMKR (second source for packaging the TPU v7 modules) up there as beneficiaries.

Just goes to show how large the supply chain is.

Also adding positions in $AMKR as @Mexicancik1 mentioned.


needed to add MediaTek( I/o chiplet), $CLS, $JBL, and $AMKR (second source for packaging the TPU v7 modules) up there as beneficiaries


Summary: Expects SG to recover to $10 from current ~$8 level.

Not bad, 5.3%+ in one trading day $SG.

Still down from $40 to $8 but should be able to recover to $10.

Option flows are still a bit wonky next two weeks though. https://t.co/YC5rtbEDy9

While people are scared, bought $100k $SG on the drop to $8.22.

No news, down 8.2%+. Meanwhile markets and high beta stocks like $HOOD, $RKLB, $ALAB, $CREDO, $HIMS, $APP are rising.

Best time to buy is on the extreme fear when retail are selling the shares they bought at $40 https://t.co/vBZhOJF1y0


Summary: Long SMCI: ~11x forward P/E for 60%+ Y/Y growth from $22B to $36B is extremely good value on AI capex/DC expansion.

This is about forward revenue growth not current.

$SMCI is growing from $22B to $36B in 1 year, which reflects the current AI capex + DC expansion, heavily into 2026.

$DELL is a formidable competitor but it's not quite winner takes all since it's an expanding market.

Just going off management projections, ~11 forward p/e for a company growing 60%+ Y/Y is extremely good value.


Summary: Author is currently long NBIS.

@SCurveCapital Yeah you were right about $IREN, congrats. I bought 1 share when we were holding $UPWK back at $12 and it was up an enormous amount.

I'm on the $NBIS train though.

$IREN is officially my fourth 10x 🎉🍾

Truly life-changing money. Been a helluva ride the last few years, gentleman!

Here’s to hopefully many more decades of finding alpha together🥂


Summary: Buying the 18% post-earnings dip in MRVL via DCA over next month; drop viewed as overreaction.

$MRVL 18% drop after earnings was a complete overreaction.

Perfect time to DCA into Marvell positions over the next month.


Summary: Long NBIS as clear winner on diversified customer base offsetting buildout lag plus best-in-class GPU orchestration software.

@babyfolio $NBIS is the clear winner from news like this since they have a diversified customer base which would offset any buildout/revenue lag.

And probably the best software orchestration stack to maximize GPU utilization

@aleabitoreddit Aa much as I want to diverse, my conviction at the moment won't let me buy anything that's not $NBIS


Summary: Long both UMAC and AIRO; prefers AIRO on $520M MC, $133M cash, no debt, 40% margins, 55%+ growth as AVAV supplier.

Great choice. $UMAC is a great long. I ended up going with $AIRO when I looked into it earlier but it’s rare you have a $520m mc manufacturer that has

- $133m cash, no debt
-  40% gross margins
- growing 55%+ y/y

As a supplier to $AVAV through $RCAT. Similar to $POET $MRVL situation.

So lot of upside, I still like $AIRO a lot more personally but to each their own!

@aleabitoreddit $UMAC delivers parts to the guys like $LPTH, $RCAT, $ONDS


I still like $AIRO a lot more personally


Huge buying opportunity for $NBIS imo, even despite all time highs. They just tripled their revenue with a 17 Billion Dollar deal and it's only up 25.67% this week. And yes I bought $100k worth of $NBIS since a 35% increase after 300%+ ARR is completely not priced in.

Summary: Long NBIS; bought $100k, argues 300%+ ARR tripling revenue is not priced in at only +25% on the week; expects another rally ahead.

Huge buying opportunity for $NBIS imo, even despite all time highs.

They just tripled their revenue with a 17 Billion Dollar deal and it’s only up 25.67% this week.

Probably short to scare of calls/short term holders then another rally down the road. https://t.co/IBXJa46X1Q

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And yes I bought $100k worth of $NBIS since a 35% increase after 300%+ ARR is completely not priced in. https://t.co/TX2gBVlrMy


Summary: Bullish NBIS on improving fundamentals + likely 2026 hyperscaler acquisition per Wedbush's Dan Ives.

Nothings fundamentally changed (aside from improving) about companies like $NBIS. Aside from the sentiment flipping the switch.

But suddenly we have people like Dan Ives from Wedbush going out and saying "Nebius likely gets acquired by a hyperscaler like $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN " in 2026, which is incredibly bullish.

@aleabitoreddit Bears will start coming out the wood work babbling about dead cats now


Nebius likely gets acquired by a hyperscaler like $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN in 2026, which is incredibly bullish


I'm also confident on recovery which is why I'm fine with leverage on $META

Summary: Holding leveraged call position on META, confident in a recovery.

@blu400_ IV is extremely low. I could buy millions in shares too but with calls, it’s really high leverage for low capital.

I’m also confident on recovery which is why I’m fine with leverage on $META

@aleabitoreddit thank you for sharing, do you mind me asking why you buy calls instead of shares if investing 6 figures? Is it for the leverage?


Summary: Bullish Samsung on foundry growth as capacity alternative to TSMC, with Tesla chip deal as positive signal.

It's for their foundry business not memory as an alternative to $TSM capacity limit.

Elon's been shilling Samsung's capabilities recently (eg. $TSLA building out its chips with them), which is a positive signal. It's the clear #2 player, memory takes up majority of their profit but I expect their foundry business to grow

@aleabitoreddit $MU overtook Samsung as second behind SK for HBU segment (the specialized VRAMs needed for AI loads), but you still like Samsung over $MU here?

I'm still researching more in that part of the thesis so just curious your logic!


Summary: Bullish AXTI: at $600M market cap, controls a critical InP substrate bottleneck for AI buildout; hyperscalers have no alternative and prices could rise 5x.

That’s for you to figure out.

I’m just highlighting how two companies (one of which is worth $600m) happens to be the bottleneck of the entire AI trade in the near future.

Historically InP substrates were a cheap commodity. And now… they’re not.

If every single hyperscaler spending hundreds of billions of GPUs/ASICs can’t function without $20m of InP, companies like $AXTI can theoretically raise prices 5x and it would be a rounding error.

There is a massive geopolitical risk with China for you to consider too but $600m MC is typically hilarious pocket change if the entire buildout is bottlenecked by one or two companies.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think it’s a good idea to invest in bottleneck companies since they essentially control the buildout, or avoid them since they have the power to cripple the buildout?


Summary: Bullish NBIS: ARR guidance raised to $7-9B, with upside to $12B next year on hyperscaler deals + capacity expansion.

@StableBread I was hoping for $5B ARR confirmation, now it’s $7-9B ARR guided.

And that’s not even considering that $NBIS could still scale up more and beat that forward revenue guidance and do $12B ARR next year with a new hyperscaler deal + acquiring more capacity.

Nebius is crazy.

@aleabitoreddit I will tell my grandkids about that time I bought $NBIS at $6B market cap 😎👶🏽


Summary: Long UPWK; still undervalued, recommends holding at least a year for long-term gains.

@Lovefist17 Nice! I think $UPWK dipped to high 11's before pulling a face ripping rally to $17+. But definitely undervalued, I still think it's good to hold for a year for long-term capital gain tax.

@aleabitoreddit I followed your upwk DD and bought at 12.9


Summary: Bullish NBIS as undervalued on forward ARR/NAV; implicitly bearish CRWV vs NBIS on debt-funded model hurting margins.

I think your comment just pointed out at how crazy $NBIS growth is going from $146m revenue this quarter to $2.1B+ next year a quarter.

So we look at future growth (next year), rather than current numbers based on $MSFT contract (~$19B, 5 years), $META ($3B, 5 years), and their regular clients (cursor, shopify, etc) + government contracts for revenue.

They do full stack AI cloud like AWS; how Nebius gets their initial funding for GPUs and infrastructure is share sales (convertible notes, $4B dilution at $138) and 25m share sales anytime. This is much preferred over 9%-10% interest on billions like what $CRWV is doing, since this directly hurts margins over time.

This immediately adds billions into their balance sheet (they have $4.7B cash now), which they use on GPU purchases, etc.

However, majority of the cash needed for scaling comes from contract revenue, $NBIS was doing 50-70% gross margins and projected 20-30% EBIT and is one of the highest margin neoclouds.

That being said when you price in existing dilution (10% + convertibles), then look at the $4.7B cash on hand, $7B+ in NAV from portfolio company assets like Clickhouse, $8B projected ARR next year with thier margins, it looks completely undervalued.

But if you look at it at just this current quarter's revenue, it looks overvalued.

@aleabitoreddit I see $146 Mil in revenue for the quarter....Cap is $20Bil. How is this worth 50x+ sales? How could they possibly scale to build these projects at 4Bil, and that is still 5x P/S


much preferred over 9%-10% interest on billions like what $CRWV is doing, since this directly hurts margins over time


Summary: CRWV oversold short-term trade on $55B backlog/NVDA backstop, but not a long-term hold due to OpenAI concentration, high debt, and thin balance sheet.

Accident, didn't feel like editing the post when I read it again.

$CRWV is oversold, $55B backlog, Neocloud sector leader, backstopped by $NVDA, miss due to DC delays, just shifts revenue down toward later quarters.

However, I would not hold it ($22B of backlog is OpenAI), high debt interest compared to others that cut into FCF/margins, and low balance sheet eg. $1.8B cash which makes it more susceptible to credit tightening right now (especially with correlation to OpenAI with doesnt have the funding).

I wouldn’t sell it if I had it now at $75, but I wouldn’t long term hold it either (short term trade). I was probably wondering what category that fits in when I made the post earlier.

@aleabitoreddit How do I simultaneously ‘Hold’ and ‘Avoid’ $CRWV?


Summary: Expects NBIS to reach $200+ within 5 months, sooner than the Northland PT implies.

@mvcinvesting $NBIS will likely be $200+ in 5 months, not 1 year.

JUST IN: Northland raised its Price Target on $NBIS from $77 to $206 and keeps an Outperform rating 🟢

After $NBIS announced on September 8 a $17.4B deal with Microsoft to deliver dedicated capacity from its new data center in New Jersey, Northland noted that "simplistically" https://t.co/R7WuSUJNdD


Summary: Screaming buy on TSM with $1.3T→$1.8T market cap target; NVDA/AVGO rally flow-through + Oracle/NBIS backlog thesis; buying calls on decent IV.

$TSM is a screaming buy.

Look at $NVDA rally -> $AVGO rally -> this will flow into TSM.

$1.3T -> $1.8T given all the backlogs from Oracle/NBIS, etc. after reading all earnings.

I almost never buy calls aside from $GOOG back at $150. But IV is decent ~32 and it’s such a great company.

(Emphasis on dip if you’re copy trading, eg. PCI on 11th into recovery for rate cut).

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM just reported August Revenue of

- $11.09B up 33.8% YoY

So far in 2025 (Through August) TSMC has brought in total revenue of

- $80.33B up 37.1% YoY https://t.co/MHJrDBfUYp


Summary: Full-port long NBIS for highest ROI; TSM as the safest full-port alternative for lower-risk investors.

@DavidJang0620 $NBIS is the only company I'd full port for highest ROI at current market rates

$TSM is probably the safest full port if you're lower risk

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@DavidJang0620 $TSM calls*.

My calls are up 68% right now since I posted. $NBIS is probably up 10%, which is still an extremely good return.


$TSM is probably the safest full port if you're lower risk


Summary: Long TSM to $450+ on blowout earnings: 46% EPS growth, 37% revenue growth, expanding margins, beat-and-raise quarter.

$TSM blowout earnings as expected. They’re the center of the whole Neocloud trade and AI Buildout.

TSM is easily going to $450+ with 46% EPS y/y (expanding margins) and 37% revenue growth y/y. (Short term might be a little volatile because of option flow though)

✅ Revenue $32.27B (Est. $31.61B)

✅ EPS: $2.84 (Est. $2.63)

Guidance:

✅ Forward Rev: $32.2B–$33.4B (Est. $32.0B)

✅ Gross Margin: 59–61%

Amazing growth and profit as a mega cap.


Summary: Still bullish NBIS at $125; would buy here despite 40% drawdown, expects outperformance over 6-12 months on 700%+ growth and $7-9B forward ARR.

Very fair criticism. I first posted about $NBIS at $86 and would still be buying at $125.

I did not expect a $7-9B forward ARR company growing 700%+ Y/Y, with 4 different subsidiary companies each growing 100%+ Y/Y to drop 40% to a $19B MC.

There's things that are mispriced 1-3 month short term (especially with larger macro overhang with high-beta asset selloffs from carry trade unwind and temporary credit tightening) but I expect all my high conviction picks to outperform 6-12 months out.

@aleabitoreddit And $nibs is down like 40% since your thesis