Summary: Sees KSPI as a good buy at current levels.

@Shtula85361 @shravanrayhaan Wow thanks for reminding me of $KSPI. Completely forgot about that ticker.

Looks like a good buy now. https://t.co/CveoiwpcJh

@shravanrayhaan @aleabitoreddit Heps has its black Friday event next week. Will be a big test following multiple product improvements $KSPI


Summary: Now strongly bullish CRCL at $18B marketcap after prior short; the prior long COIN leg of the pair trade was set vs CRCL at $60B.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Sure, so I've been saying avoid Circle or short $CRCL long $COIN when Circle was trading at a $60B marketcap.

This was because people didn't understand float dynamics.

Majority of the float was locked up and couldn't be sold, similar to BULL IPO. When float was released, the price on Circle crashed.

There's stuff like rate cuts too hurting profitability from interest on minted stablecoins, but float dynamics was the biggest factor by a longshot.

I've always been bullish on USDC, but market cap plays a huge role. Now it's an extraordinarily strong buy back at $18B

@aleabitoreddit If $CRCL is printing money, why does its stock chart look like it’s going bankrupt?


short $CRCL long $COIN when Circle was trading at a $60B marketcap

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'


Summary: Bullish AXTI: InP monopoly + institutional recognition just beginning, real upside in months as InP prices ramp higher.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

This is likely all institutional movement, and a lot of hedge funds realizing $AXTI's InP monopoly position + trying to enter the trade following Northland $100m funding.

This is completely novel development too playing out real time, and 99%+ of people aren't even aware of this bottleneck/company yet (my follower group on X is a bubble)

The real fun starts in a few months when InP prices shoot up even higher, since it only stated to ramp 1 1/2 weeks ago.

@aleabitoreddit Not giving a bit of a red candle whatsoever, stressing to hold a position this extended send it 🤪🔥🚀


Summary: UPWK still cheap at $20; VIRT similarly undervalued with less upside unless using options.

@mattscottcap Yeah $UPWK is still great value at $20 but $13 just felt extremely undervalued.

Feel something similar about $VIRT now, but upside potential is a lot less unless you touch options.

https://t.co/ZzF4IlJXdf

@aleabitoreddit Haven't seen many talk about $UPWK on here.  That one was easy money at $13 and it's still cheap


Summary: Bullish on Neocloud segment: WYFI, NBIS, IREN, CIFR, WULF all extremely attractive buys; WYFI valuation reset from $40 to $15 seen as opportunity.

Almost every Neocloud segment stock is a extremely solid buy (maybe aside from $SLNH)

$WYFI is kinda T2 with NScale's $865m agreement. But it's valuation got completely reset from $40 to $15. So it's an extremely attractive buy up there along with $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF and the others.

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on $WYFI?


extremely attractive buy up there along with $NBIS

industry='Internet Content & Information'


extremely attractive buy up there along with $NBIS, $IREN


extremely attractive buy up there along with $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR


extremely attractive buy up there along with $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR, $WULF


Summary: Bullish VLN: trading at 2.4x EV/revenue vs peers at 14-18x; $80M+ revenue at 69% gross margins severely undervalued.

Thanks, $VLN was just an incredible discovery when I was looking through robotics supply chains.

I'm in disbelief that a company with $80M+ forward revenue with 69% gross margins from their growing robotics segments was trading almost 1:1 with their cash and inventory balance.

Even after Friday, 2.4x EV/revenue on $VLN just looks completely off when related companies trade at 14-18 multiples, or even 30+ if there's premiums.

@aleabitoreddit Kinda baffling that this has happened in this day n age. Only in small cap world, again, great find!


Summary: Holds NBIS long; positive fundamental trajectory from parent to subsidiaries sustains bullish stance.

@pepemoonboy @Hedgeye Thanks! I'm not a hardcore $NBIS community member though. If something bad changes to the fundamentals, I'm not afraid to sell the stock.

But so far I've only seen positive changes from the parent company down to its subsidiaries so I'm excited for the future of the company.

@aleabitoreddit @Hedgeye We are so lucky to have you in the $NBIS community. Your insight is gold. Appreciate you man! Excited to be a $NBIS holder


Summary: Bullish NBIS: MSFT contract + rate cuts not yet priced in; META-CRWV deal bullish read-through for neoclouds including CRWV.

More hyperscaler contracts coming in. But you're spot on with earnings + rate cuts (+ Nov/Dec seasonality) as the biggest near-term catalysts.

Usually companies get rerated after earnings when they release more insight into forward projections.

When $META signed with $CRWV that's extremely bullish for the other neoclouds.

Aside from that don't think $MSFT contract and other rate cuts are priced in yet.

@aleabitoreddit @MMerrino569447 Other than earnings and rate cuts, what other short term catalyst are there for $NBIS?

Aren’t MFST contract and rate cuts already priced in?

I’ve been nibbling few shares as it goes down with avg. of $115. Thanks as always!


When $META signed with $CRWV that's extremely bullish for the other neoclouds


Summary: Regrets trimming RKLB at $30; implied still bullish and recommends holding.

@soulbiri1 Yeah I'll do a writeup! It's a bit special right now for tax purposes, I wouldn't really sell stocks I still think would go back up if it weren't EOY.

Also don't trust me on selling wining positions with high conviction, I trimmed like $600k of $RKLB at $30. Probably just hold https://t.co/tWEMWr3q4r

@aleabitoreddit Excellent write up my lord. In addition to deciding when to trim losers, one thing I especially struggle with is when to take profits on winning positions. Would be cool if you made a similar writeup for some winning trades and your rationale for when to sell.


Ignore the noise, $ALAB has of the highest margins in the industry. It's just selling off with anything high beta.

Summary: Bullish ALAB: selloff is noise — beat on EPS, revenue, and guidance; margin contraction fears are unfounded with projected higher margins.

$ALAB:
EPS: .49 vs .39 estimate (+26% beat)
Revenue: 230M vs. 206M estimate (+12% beat)

Next quarter guidance
Est: 249M vs 216M (Strong Beat)
Gross Margin (74% vs 75%) (Beat)

Markets were saying they dropped on margin contraction fears, but they literally projected higher margins lol.

Ignore the noise, $ALAB has of the highest margins in the industry (eg. $NVDA).

It's just selling off with anything high beta. Crypto is usually a good proxy, $ETH is down 20% past few days for example.

@aleabitoreddit Are you able to do an analysis on $alab earnings?


Summary: Long DNUT on principle against short sellers; sees RKT short squeeze possible given 60%+ short interest.

Normally I don't join on meme rallies like $RKT, $KSS, but I really don't appreciate short sellers shorting my favorite donut places to bankruptcy by selling 32% of the float.

This one is out of principle.

Bought $30k worth of $DNUT just to say f**k you to short sellers. https://t.co/jTNnxFNJlq

---

For people looking at $RKT, short interest is over 60%+ which is absolutely insane.

Usually retail can't squeeze a $30B+ company but with the high short interest, it's definitely possible.


short interest is over 60%+ which is absolutely insane. Usually retail can't squeeze a $30B+ company but with the high short interest, it's definitely possible


Summary: Bullish NBIS to $100B+ in a year on hyperscaler contract growth plus sum-of-parts value from subsidiaries.

You’re right, sum of parts would be worth more.

Subsidaries aside, the main operational business which at the base case no growth for the next two years is 5B ARR, 60-70% gross margins.

However it’s still growing and with one more hyperscaler contract, NBIS can easily be $100b+ in a year

@aleabitoreddit Correct me if im wrong but nebius owns 80% of avride according to seeking alpha


$VLN could have been a $700m+ growing semiconductor stock but was artificially suppressed by a false $82m capex number. Even though it's back to $222m that's still a complete joke.

Summary: Long VLN: current $222m market cap still far below its $700m+ fair value; suppressed by false capex data, legitimate semi with strong margins and cash.

$VLN could have been a $700m+ growing semiconductor stock but was artificially suppressed by a false $82m capex number.

Even though it’s back to $222m that’s still a complete joke.

This isn’t some random microcap, it’s a legitimate growing semi with $93m cash and $70m revenue off 60%+ gross margins.

I just pointed out a massive market error, and that’s markets pricing in information discovery

@aleabitoreddit You reached the point where your tweets pump these stocks 10%+


it can rebound to $130+ strikes any day... especially if you think a stock is extremely undervalued

Summary: Holds NBIS long; avoids covered calls as stock is extremely undervalued and can rebound sharply.

@Mattyice112233 @Docofgothm I don't sell CC's on $NBIS on extreme drops like this since it can rebound to $130+ strikes any day.

Far OTM ones like $160+ are not worth it given current premiums.

You don't always need to write options, especially if you think a stock is extremely undervalued.

@aleabitoreddit @Docofgothm In this particular scenario with the recent drop of NBIS, do you refrain from selling far OTM weekly covered calls? Or do you continue selling weekly’s as normal?     Curious how you handle your CCs with drops like this.


Summary: Long NBIS for the near term, then rotating into RKLB.

@YodaStockInvest $NBIS for next few months -> $RKLB

If you had to invest 100% of your net worth in 1 stock, which would it be?

My pick is $AMD:
Forward PE <40 with years of 30%+ topline bottomline growth ahead

My second choice is $SOFI, who you got?


Summary: Initiated RBRK at $82 as mid-term hold; bullish on cybersecurity sector multiples (CRWD/NET); prefers NBIS as higher-growth neocloud play.

So people keep asking me about $RBRK almost every other post and I know it's really popular on X.

I ended up looking into it so people stop asking (and added some Rubrik to my portfolio at $82).

TLDR my own research:

- Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET)

- 80% gross margins (great)

- $1B+ ARR, grew 40-50% Y/Y (great)

(comparison to NET, ~2.2B+ ARR, growing 22% Y/Y, almost 5x the MC)

- OpEx spend: 60-75% of revenue goes to marketing. This is a huge positive.

OpEx marketing spend is great but it looks really bad short term eg. $HOOD when they give customers 3% to transfer, it hurts short term in earnings reports bc it's deceptive and not many people do the breakdown but long term when they cut back on spend, customers are sticky and this helps a lot with profitability.

FCF was positive, but breakdown of opex expenses was mainly marketing, which is a good thing, unlike Snapchat google cloud opex.

- Diversified client base like Cloudflare (eg. goldman, pepsi, accenture, etc).

Downsides:

- Balance sheet not the best, $1.1B debt or so to fund acquisitions. At least it's about acquisitions.

- Don't like how their forward revenue numbers slowed down 20-25% compared to something like $NBIS growing like 700% or something more for next year. Obviously unfair comparison, but that's why I liked Neoclouds more.

_

Looks like a good mid term hold with a pretty simple plan -> scale customer base -> scale back marketing + sticky base -> catch up to industry multiples in cybersecurity and hv higher FCF.

Usually these types of growth companies with high gross margins (eg. $HOOD back at $18, growing ~50 y/y) that turn profitable, re-rate the hardest.

$RBRK just gotta spend less on marketing down the road and suddenly they have a lot of fcf with their sticky customer base.

TLDR: Great buy for cybersecurity sector, better opportunities elsewhere.

Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations

Strong Buy
$IBIT
$LTC
$WLAC
$NBIS
$MP
$TSM
(For Next Year)
$ETOR
$DKNG
$SNAP

Buy
$UPWK
$CRDO
$ALAB
$AMZN
$META
$UNH
$SG
$TGT
$BULL
$FLY
$CIFR
$WULF
$IREN
$GLXY
$SMCI
$DELL
$MRVL

Hold
$RKLB
$HOOD
$RBRK
$MU


Cybersecurity company (industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET)


industry trades at extremely high multiples, look at $CRWD or $NET


Summary: Bullish NBIS as the superior full-stack neocloud with customer diversification and margin moat; CRWV also cited as one of only two public neocloud players.

I mean not everyone can develop FSD-level 4 self driving cars. There's probably only 5 main players in the US.  Amazon, Waymo, Tesla, $NBIS Avride, and Motional.

Unless your question was about the parent company.

 Then out of public company Neoclouds, there's only $NBIS and $CRWV. Then there's only one with immense amount of customer diversification ( Shopify, Cursor, governments, msft/meta, and so on) which helps with utilization (huge for margins).

Also it's mixes full stack + software full stack orchestration layers. eg. GPU utilization-> faster time to train + lowers opex to create an economic moat from software + hardware mix. It's not easy to create this, $CRWV spent billions of dollars and years which is why miners/colo players can't exactly pivot to full-stack offerings.

If there's single digit providers that can do things, it's probably technologically very complex.

@aleabitoreddit What is NBIS's moat exactly?


out of public company Neoclouds, there's only $NBIS and $CRWV


Summary: Long NBIS mid-to-long term; undervalued despite near-term $2.7B selling pressure from equity raise; $3B META contract and ARR projection strategically positive.

@0xcyberbro Easily for mid-long term. Very near term, it sucks that there's 2.7B worth of selling pressure (even if $NBIS is undervalued at these levels).

The $3B $META contract and ARR projection is strategically bigger, but the equity raise is financially heavier in the short term.


Summary: NBIS is deeply undervalued vs fundamentals after macro-driven -26% sell-off; $8B ARR + META deal were genuine surprises not priced in.

I can 99.9% assure you that $NBIS $8B ARR expectations were not priced in months ago, analysts/markets were expecting around $2B ARR (~2-3 months ago).

And now we're trading at lower levels than after the $MSFT deal was announced (~ $90-$100).

Factoring in the 19B deal and revenue ramp, bull-case institutional analysts like Northland were projected $4B ARR. Bull case FinX (including myself) went upward to $6B-$7B with another hyperscaler deal later next year.

Then announcing $8B midpoint ARR to $9B, capacity to 2.5 GW (which people kept saying $IREN was had a huge moat for 2.8-~3.2 GW), and an unexpected $META deal the same quarter as $MSFT on top was a complete surprise.

However, the broader -26% drop after earnings was macro and indiscriminate sell-off, not because of points #1, #2, #3, and #4 for individual stock projections.

The point was $NBIS stock price is completely detached from fundamentals right now and the sell-off was a joke.

@aleabitoreddit beating the most bullish ARR estimate by 100% doesn’t help when those expectations were already priced into the stock months ago...

markets don’t reward absolute numbers

they reward surprises relative to positioning and $NBIS had none left lmfao


Summary: Expects ~20% LULU bounce from October to January but bearish long-term due to competition from Vuori, Alo, etc.

@truthdotphd Short term bounce from October to Jan, sure. +20% return.

Long term, too much competition from Vuori, Alo, etc. wouldn't hold for many years imo.

I have my entire net worth in $LULU, and I'm not planning to sell it anytime soon. Lululemon remains a compelling long-term hold despite a steep 2025 selloff, thanks to its powerful brand, zero debt, and resilient profitability even in softer US retail conditions. Its aggressive https://t.co/uCfsCFWVAt


Summary: Nation-building portfolio for US invasion of Venezuela: long GDRZF, CVX, TRGP, AVAV, CF, HII, OI on oil assets, defense, ammonia disruption, and claims recovery.

Maduro is now captured in NY, facing charges.

The first thing that came to everyone's mind is:

How do you profit off the US invasion of Venezuela and Regime Change?

Here's how.

This is the "Nation Building" port:

1. $GDRZF @$1.68 - $8B+ claims, $200m MC. (30%)

2. $ASHM @ £175.10 - 3x NAV bonds recovery (20%)

3. $CVX @ $155.90 - Most obvious oil play from locked up assets + $17T in oil (15% allocation / calls)

4. $TRGP @ $186.77 - Diluent exporter to Venezuela (10% allocation / calls)

5. $AVAV @ $256.19  - Maritime operations and post $1T funding for defense.  ( 10% allocation)

6. $CF @ $80.13 - Disruption of Trinidad & Tobago ammonia exports.  (5% allocation)

7. $HII @ $349.7 - Profiting off the blockade from shipbuilding (5% allocation)

8. $OI @ $15.16 - Claims ~$700M, 35% cash injection relative to market cap (5% allocation)

This setup looks to be the optimal way to capitalize on the US invasion of Venezuela - from profiting off the blockade to the new $17T+ in oil resources now owned by the United States.

"Nation Building" is the most underrated theme going into 2027.

Watch what happens on Monday and the following months.

US has now invaded Venezuela.

Everyone is probably wondering the same thing:

How do you profit off the situation?

1. Heavy Sour, Ammonia, and Nitrogen Fertilizers disruption ( $CF , $CVE).

These are Venezuela's biggest exports.

Most people will buy generic oil ETFs or light https://t.co/WvWMxSoJA2


$CVX @ $155.90 - Most obvious oil play from locked up assets + $17T in oil (15% allocation / calls)


$TRGP @ $186.77 - Diluent exporter to Venezuela (10% allocation / calls)


$AVAV @ $256.19 - Maritime operations and post $1T funding for defense. (10% allocation)


$CF @ $80.13 - Disruption of Trinidad & Tobago ammonia exports. (5% allocation)


$HII @ $349.7 - Profiting off the blockade from shipbuilding (5% allocation)


$OI @ $15.16 - Claims ~$700M, 35% cash injection relative to market cap (5% allocation)


Summary: High-conviction long TSM on multi-year demand; lukewarm on Lyft due to Waymo disruption risk, prefers other names.

I don't like chasing unless it's clear it will go up with insane demand over the next few years like $TSM.

$Lyft is mainly US market and I see Waymo disrupting market share over time.

Even at $20 it's still a good but I like other companies better. If i had another $1M I'd just put that into TSM instead of Lyft since I double down on higher conviction stocks.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think of Lyft? It's starting to become profitable, new management seems better, and the price just broke above a big resistance level.

Uber is also around ATH, and if it keeps going up, Lyft might follow too.
I think the only bad thing is that it already ran up a lot


I see Waymo disrupting market share over time. Even at $20 it's still a good but I like other companies better


Summary: Bearish on photonic ramp scaling due to InP substrate bottlenecks; LITE named as part of the affected industry.

@itsDanielWu That's fair, I see the entire industry moving to photonics as well with $LITE and others.

But in regards to photonic ramp, I've had my own thesis on InP substrates bottlenecks, so I'm personally more bearish on getting this to scale

https://t.co/d6eDk7K204

@aleabitoreddit Feels like the bear case became louder post the OCS/TPUs-for-everyone hype just after CRDO and LITE reported. Anyway as a tourist I have no view on when mass adoption of optical scale up will actually happen. Adoption seems like it has been around the corner for a while now.


Summary: Long NBIS as rare high-speed growth compounder to $200B; long CIFR as slower but solid 5-year compounder via defensible colo/balance sheet model.

From what I've seen in the AI growth sector, Yes, $NBIS is incredibly, incredibly rare since it was Yandex before.

For context, that's basically Baidu/China | Google/US
equivalent but for Russia and they spun off subsidiaries like Avride into Nebius.

For stuff like $CRWV and other companies, their acquisitions like Monolith AI were more to compliment their existing core business rather than growing independently at triple digits Y/Y. Then $1.7B for Weights and Bias (that is not growing too fast from what I'm floated numbers)

As for the other DC/miner companies, unfortunately Bitcoin isn't growing too fast either, but it's very defensible long term. So growth rate of $CIFR via their balance sheets for example will be a lot slower.

But longer term it's really solid to have as a shareholder and goes in line with their low downside risk colo model, slower slower revenue ramp model.

If you want to go from 0 to 200B in a year, $NBIS is how you do it. If you want to do that in 5 years time, $CIFR is where it's at.

@aleabitoreddit Is $NBIS the only one with a portfolio, optionality in different areas, flywheel to invest more?


If you want to do that in 5 years time, $CIFR is where it's at


Summary: Top pick NBIS on $17B MSFT deal, fastest revenue ramp, Clickhouse stake, strong balance sheet, full-stack diversification, and compelling valuation at $26B.

Yeah, $NBIS is #1 choice by a longshot. $17B MSFT deal was over 5 years so fastest revenue ramp, not including more deals.

They own a ton of great companies like 30% Clickhouse, which Anthropic uses. Great balance sheet (eg. $4B+ raised $138+), no major interest like $CRWV.

NBIS does full stack, more diversified businesses already, large gross margins.

All-around such an incredible value at 26B.

@aleabitoreddit Is $NBIS your top choice?


24B market cap for $NBIS... which is scaling quarterly revenue 1000%+ to 4-6B+ ARR in just 1 year... the 7% drop off no material changes feels like a gift

Summary: Long NBIS: 1000%+ revenue growth, 70%+ gross margins, $5B+ cash, hyperscaler tailwinds; 7% dip on no news is a buying opportunity.

I said this earlier but 24B market cap for $NBIS... which is scaling quarterly revenue 1000%+ to 4-6B+ ARR in just 1 year by powering $MSFT azure and other hyperscalers. While doing 70%+ gross margins, having $5B+ in cash, and billions in assets that go up over time in hyper-growth portfolio companies that power Anthropic, Meta, and other is laughable.

We also have the largest data center buildout in history for national security reasons, Nov/Dec seasonality, and 2 more rate cuts this year alone as tailwind.

But it's times like these where retail gets wiped out or paper-hands just looking at the price vs. fundamentals, and that's how institutions accumulate.

That's why the 7% drop off no material changes feels like a gift, even though it's a short term hit to the numbers.

@aleabitoreddit Nothing tests your convictions quite like seeing your stock drop 30% on no news!😭


Summary: Long LTC: fundamentally undervalued given high payment utility relative to low market cap.

lol $LTC supposed to be a shorter play, Litecoin ETF gets approved 95% chance, then just sell into approval acceptance and possibly new treasury plays.

Then government gets shut down for a month so ETFs get delayed.

Yeah not the best luck. Fundamentally I think the asset is undervalued because of its high utility in payments still vs. low market cap.

@aleabitoreddit @soulbiri1 i swear $LTC has the worst luck ever 😂


Summary: Bought $50k+; if deal materializes, sees 10x upside to $3-7B market cap from current levels.

AudioEye Inc US-listed equity ticker AEYE

@soulbiri1 I ended up buying $50k+ worth. Worth the risk reward I guess, if the deal is real then it could grow to a $3-7B market cap, which is 10x from here.

If not, losing 20% isn't really bad

RIP mods removed my drawing from WSB, I spent a solid 5 mins on that https://t.co/tcIDLFugQG

@aleabitoreddit Bought it on vibes. I like the ticker lol https://t.co/V7MJ9ifSNq


Summary: Bullish HOOD: expects it to re-rate to ~$400B market cap on S&P passive inflows and disruptive banking launch.

@Lovefist17 No price target. I'm just guessing it's worth the risk/reward that it pulls a PLTR and goes to a overvalued 400B market cap.

Passive inflows from S&P is just stupid with large caps.

Also $HOOD is launching banking which is extremely disruptive + good catalyst

@aleabitoreddit What's the target for hood?


I have a negative view of ETH as a token. There's a difference of Ethereum winning as a network (it did), and $ETH token appreciating in price. Economic hooks like collateral, etc. are extremely weak compared to mechanical upside from usage that is now gone.

Summary: Bearish ETH: L2+blob migration broke the usage→gas→price thesis; remaining economic hooks (collateral, RWAs) too weak to substitute.

The original and simple investment thesis for $ETH was: more network usage -> more gas demand -> higher ETH price .

As you mentioned this is no longer the case since value shows up differently after L2s + blobs/EIP-4844. Ecosystem usage ↑↑↑, L1 gas + burn ↓.

And this is where I have a negative view of ETH as a token/ $BMNR as a holding vehicle for investment. There's a difference of Ethereum winning as a network (it did), and $ETH token appreciating in price.

Economic hooks like collateral, etc. are extremely weak compared to mechanical upside from usage that is now gone.

@aleabitoreddit @VitalikButerin @fundstrat L2s didn’t ‘kill’ $ETH, they changed where the value shows up. DA fees, staking / restaking, RWAs and stablecoins all lean on $ETH as security + collateral. The burn chart is just lagging the shift from pure gas token to core settlement asset.


Summary: NVDA earnings signal accelerated demand; bullish read on the print as a durable forward catalyst.

@soulbiri1 Yeah stuff like $CIFR is up 17% after hours.

Doesn’t mean the price will hold market open, but market just needs an excuse for things to rally sometimes.

Fundamentals are already in-tact for $NBIS to $CIFR but $NVDA earnings just point toward accelerated demand. https://t.co/oZqWb7jrL7


Summary: Long NBIS as a direct beneficiary of hyperscaler capex, backed by multi-year visible contracts from hyperscalers and governments/enterprises.

For $NBIS, it was increase in existing ARR of $1.1B for q4 + $MSFT $19.4B deal / 5 years + $META $3B deal / 5 years.

$4.6 + $1.1B = $5.7B ARR, the $3.3B extra projection likely comes from growth from new enterprise clients like Cursor and new deals from their 2.5GW contracted capacity. There are multi-year visible contracts from hyperscalers and revenue from governments/enterprises like Shopify, not OpenAI promises.

Of course I only projected $4.2B revenue recognized since it takes time to ramp up execution with majority realized q4, which they projected to be ~$2.1B.

$NBIS is one of the direct beneficiaries of hyperscaler capex in this case.

@aleabitoreddit What's the timeframe on those forward ARR projections - are these actual contracts or targets?


Summary: Long SSYS as a high-asymmetry play on humanoid robotics scale-up; revenue could ramp exponentially if Atlas/Optimus achieve scale.

I don't know. Don't have one.

$SSYS basically the frame/skeleton of humanoid robots and revenue ramp depends on robotics scale up.

If Atlas from Boston Dynamics or Optimus or others achieves scale, then revenue increases exponentially.

No robotics player achieved anything at scale yet, hence why revenue's been lower so far.

But this is just my personal thought regarding getting the most asymmetry on the robotics ramp.

@aleabitoreddit If you don't mind me asking, what is your PT for this one?


Summary: Argues VLN is undervalued vs fair value of $10+ on 10-12x EV/revenue given robotics/AI pivot with 69-70% gross margins and 40%+ growth.

-$82M burn made a extremely, extremely big material difference.

I'll give you some history:

$VLN last year was a low margin, automotive chipmaker (low 40's gross margin) and single supplier dependent on Mercedes, with this segment declining -37.9%.

There's been a lot of material changes since then, and they were able to pivot their core IP to a new chipset for broad applications from machine vision in robotics to medical verticals, with $NVDA like 69-70% gross margins.

That vertical now makes up 75%+ of their revenue (growing 40%+ Y/Y), while their automotive segment decreased 37%+.

If there was no -$82M burn modeled, Valens might be trading above $10+ today with 10-12x EV Multiple (on the low end still) given to robotics and AI segments.

But feel free to come up with your own valuation metric based on the financials above.

@aleabitoreddit The report with the -82M inventory error was published in november though, it was pretty flat since then. So i dont think this had a relevant impact on pricing


Extremely strong buy on recovery once there's time over the weekend for people to digest what actually happened.

Summary: Full-port MINT basket for Nov–Dec 2025: long META on post-earnings overreaction, long IBIT on BTC staying power, long NBIS on highest asymmetric upside, long TSM as center of AI trade.

There’s only Four stocks:

 🍬 MINT

That have ABSURDLY HIGH, asymmetrical return.

Meaning Low Capital Risk. High Upside Return.

This is only for Nov + Dec 2025.

Here it is... MINT

An explanation of why to full port MINT for end of year 2025:

M = $META
I = $IBIT
N = $NBIS
T = $TSM

With these four holy growth companies in your portfolio, you can make your breath smell better so you can pull Sydney Sweeney:

Mag7. Crypto. AI Data Center. Semiconductor.

$META - Meta
___________
Stupid sell-off.

Revenue Beat. EPS Beat. Strong guidance.

It looks extremely bad on paper when you look at
Revenue $51.24B (+26.25% Y/Y), Net income $2.71B (-82.73% Y/Y).

🟢 Revenue: $51.24B vs. est. $49.41B

Without one-off tax →
🟢 EPS: $7.25 vs. est. $6.67

With one-off tax →
🔴 EPS: $1.05 vs. est. $6.67

My guess was the initial sell-off was algorithmically driven, then caused by mechanical flows. Many high-frequency trading (HFT) and news-parsing systems react to headline EPS numbers pulled directly from data feeds (Bloomberg, Reuters, etc.).

If the reported GAAP EPS ($1.05) is printed alongside a consensus of $6.67, the system flags it as a massive miss. Obviously this is speculative, but many models aren't programmed to normalize for one-time tax charges (which is new) and won’t know to look at adjusted EPS ($7.25), which actually beat.

Now news are claiming the sell-off was due to AI capex surprise. If we go with this, -15%+ on “AI capex spending increasing” is just pure narratives and means absolutely jack since $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $TSLA, and every single Mag7 is increasing on capex.

$META doing the same and selling off doesn’t make sense, unless people believe it’s just going into a black hole with no ROI (which markets disagree since AI is basically running $SPY).

Extremely strong buy on recovery once there’s time over the weekend for people to digest what actually happened. Misreads + stupid narratives can cause short-term overreactions (1–2 sessions), often reversed.

$IBIT - Bitcoin
___________

It’s Bitcoin.And sitting at $110k.

Bitcoin is here to stay with US government support, and with all the ongoing currency inflation + flow of money going to newer generation, there’s no better hedge against inflation than BTC.

Polymarket still prices Bitcoin 40% to $130k in 2 months’ time, even if it moves up a few percent you can have upside on CCs and upside on the underlying asset.

$NBIS - Nebius
___________
Core business valuation: $31–36.5B

Sum-of-parts (cash, assets, portfolio): ~$10.6B (slashed 40% = ~$6.3B)

Base case valuation: ~$39B → high upside even with zero growth

Core business on track for ~$5B ARR (FY26–27), 60–70% gross margins, and 30% EBITDA target.

Hitting $8–12B ARR (via one more hyperscaler deal + SMB expansion) could justify ~$100B valuation.

No toxic debt, high GPU utilization, full-stack architecture → higher operating leverage.

You can look at the bullet point comparison that I quoted so you can make your own judgement on $NBIS vs $IREN for example.

However, I’ll always maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return over anything including $IREN to $CIFR due to existing hyperscaler deals, enterprise clients (Shopify, Accenture), Government Clients, 1GW capacity, high gross margins from full-stack, and many others.

That’s not saying there’s not high upside from $WULF from Fluidstack + Google deals, and others from capacity.

The downside risk on Nebius is the lowest. And it has really, really high upside.

$TSM
______________
It’s the CENTER. OF. THE. AI. TRADE.

They’ve already guided INCREASING MARGINS - which is astronomical.

Revenue: $33.1B vs. $31.5B est.
Earnings per Share: $2.92 vs. $2.59 est.
Guidance: $32.2B – $33.4B vs. $32.0B est.

They’ve beat revenue guidance, increasing margins, and it’s just astronomical how much money they’re printing.

It was trading at $305–310 pre-earnings, now back at $300.

It’s a $1T+ company that grew 30%+ Y/Y with their margins — what the actual.

I said this about the money printer $GOOGL back at $145 and $HOOD back at $20. They print money.

There's no need to debate $ALAB vs $CRDO, $IREN vs $NBIS, $AMD vs $NVDA.

$TSM the center of the whole AI buildout, so it’s just a waiting game.

_

There is it $MINT.

Enjoy a teaser of the song, kinda a banger. 🎶

Added 6 figures in Jan-Feb $META calls.

Same thing happened last year April and it took 2-6 days for full recovery.

Earnings beat, fundamentals in tact. Same story about capex spend.

Might be 2 day flush so cost averaging but this selloff is a huge opportunity. https://t.co/S3CwYsdaU4


Bitcoin is here to stay with US government support, and with all the ongoing currency inflation + flow of money going to newer generation, there's no better hedge against inflation than BTC.


The downside risk on Nebius is the lowest. And it has really, really high upside.


$TSM the center of the whole AI buildout, so it's just a waiting game.


Summary: IREN deal economics look worse on FCF vs revenue (low-single-digit gross in bear case); NBIS at 50%+ gross margins looks superior on normalized 300MW MSFT deal comparison.

The deal looks a lot worse for $IREN when you look into FCF generated more instead of revenue numbers since it's not pure colo.

When you normalize to 300 MW and compare MSFT deals $IREN is projected to do ~30s gross or even low single digits in bear cases, and $NBIS ~50%+ (at least from initial calculations, I need to revisit)

In this case, IREN is taking on the $5.8 billion CapEx for the GPUs and ancillary equipment itself.

I was late to $IREN — I’ll admit it.

While it’s up +155% since my bullish call, my focus (and bigger conviction) has been on $NBIS, where I believe the upside is still massively underpriced.

IREN proved the AI + energy pivot works. NBIS is doing the same but at hyperscaler https://t.co/EmUafLiThe


$NBIS ~50%+ (at least from initial calculations, I need to revisit)


Summary: Long NBIS; management projects billions from Avride FSD in 2-3 years, stock extremely underpriced.

@EarningsMindset Yeah management already projected few billion in revenue from Avride FSD in 2-3 years.

Extremely underpriced for $NBIS https://t.co/h8KxcTzCy8

@aleabitoreddit Crazy how much the market is still sleeping on $NBIS.
If Avride delivers, this whole story gets re-priced fast.


Summary: HIMS price will slowly edge up as short interest declines from 40% to 10% via shorts covering.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

@himshouse Shorts covering $HIMS on red days.

We'll likely see price slowly edge up as SI goes from 40% down to 10%.

$HIMS GREEEEEEEEEEEN 🏇 https://t.co/vtEjXyJ0T9


日経をロングするのは賢いポジショニングだと私も考えます

Summary: Long Nikkei: yen carry-trade unwind will drive capital repatriation to Japan, supporting hedged buying.

日本の利上げは日経平均にとって一見マイナスに思えますが、米国のFRBが利下げに動いていることもあり、2024年に再び積み上がった円キャリートレードが崩壊する要因になります。

そのため、資金が日本へ還流し、ヘッジを伴った買いが促されるアンワインド局面では、日経をロングするのは賢いポジショニングだと私も考えます。


Summary: Bullish META via short-dated calls, targeting a flush/dip entry for a 2-3 day recovery trade.

@gunnaosrs Yeah $META calls seem like free money, you have the right mindset. I'm not doing leaps though probably shorter dated calls since it takes 2-3 days for recovery a lot of times.

I was thinking day-2 flush or if it drops 15%+ intra-day today but we'll see.


Summary: Prefers NBIS over IREN for risk-reward: hyperscaler deals, higher margins, full-stack; still sees speculative upside in IREN but risk-reward is better for Nebius after miners' runup.

Hmm, I still maintain $NBIS has the highest asymmetrical return, with lower downside, high upside compared to $IREN with existing hyperscaler deals, subsidiaries scaling alongside them, and a higher margin business with full-stack.

On the other hand, I'd agree $IREN has a high  speculative upside due to capacity and infrastructure.

I've owned both and it's fine have both, I just think risk-reward is better for Nebius after the runup on miners.

It's good to discuss those points!

@aleabitoreddit Neocloud space does not any more tribal wars, everybody can win together. I love both NBIS and IREN


$IREN has a high speculative upside due to capacity and infrastructure


Summary: Long-term conviction on RKLB (national security moat, #2 to SpaceX); medium-term long on NBIS and CIFR during current hyperscaling period.

@Melissa09744266 I don't long term invest unless it's $RKLB since space is a national security issue, huge moat m, and #2 second to SpaceX.

But yeah I'd expect in 4-5 years AWS, GOOGL hyperscaler chips might be ready around then. Until then, we're in hyperscaling mode with $NBIS and $CIFR.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you for being honest about the risks and speculations. I also agree with your timeline of 8mo-1yr. This is a trade not a long term investment. Amazon is a ruthless company and will not just give their infrastructure dominance. AWS is likely next AWS.


we're in hyperscaling mode with $NBIS and $CIFR


I'm on the $AMZN hype train... Amazon has too much going for it like robotics cutting opex and AWS backlog

Summary: Long AMZN on robotics/AWS; bearish META on excessive AI capex with little to show.

@AdityaInvests90 Oof I’m on the $AMZN hype train, I’ll have a little competition with @pepemoonboy.

I just felt like Meta blew too much capex on AI this quarter with nothing much to show.

Amazon has too much going for it like robotics cutting opex and AWS backlog.

Would you guys rather pick $META or $AMZN right now


Meta blew too much capex on AI this quarter with nothing much to show


Valens looks like extreme mispricing at $2.5. You have a debt-free, $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in the robotics/AI space with Tier-1 customers, trading at a distressed multiples likely due to a technical reporting error.

Summary: Long VLN: calls it extreme mispricing at $2.50 due to a data error inflating inventory burn, citing debt-free balance sheet, NVDA-like margins, and Tier-1 AI/robotics customers at 2.4x EV/Revenue.

Valens looks like extreme mispricing at $2.5.

The -$82M inventory burn was a massive data error, likely from ticker collision between $VLN and $VLN Toronto.

Retail has found out about the alpha early.

Yet algorithms have not caught on yet, as they're still modeling negative EV from -$82M burn (this requires manual correction).

Everyone is encouraged to fact check everything below from financials posted to -$82M error on Stonegate, Streetwise, and scanners.

$VLN is heavily misunderstood due to its $255M market cap size.

This is not due to company quality and it's definitely not some pump and dump Chinese penny stock. But an  artificial suppression from algorithmic pricing in <1Y runway from $82m burn.

This is a extremely mispriced AI & Robotics fabless chipmaker with:

- Mercedes
- Samsung
- Mobileye  (EyeQ6)
- Siemens
- Logitch

and many other leading OEMs and Robotics companies as customers.

$VLN has

- Zero Debt.
- $93.5 Million Cash and $11M+ in Inventory
- $11 Million + in inventory.
- ~$80M+ est. forward revenue
- 69.1% gross margins on their robotics/machine vision/industrial vertical (growing 40% Y/Y). Blended margins from their automotive segment brings it down to 63.0%.

If you want to compare similar companies:

- Lattice $LSCC trades around 19x and 23x EV/Revenue.
- Macom $MTSI, trades around 13x and 16.5x. EV/Revenue.

Valens trades at:

2.4x. Which looks like a glitch.

Even non-premium, 20-30% gross margin, companies trade at 4-5x.

We now see an extreme mispricing of a $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in verticals for machine vision in robotics to AI automotive sectors.

Final Point:

I encourage everyone to do valuation modeling themselves from the financial data.

And then do due diligence on the -$82M error.

Maybe you'll come to the same conclusion that I did regarding the extreme mispricing at $2.5.

You have a debt-free, $NVDA-margin fabless chipmaker in the robotics/AI space with Tier-1 customers, trading at a distressed multiples likely due to a technical reporting error.

This might be one of the rarest moments in history retail has discovered.

$VLN supply chain is misunderstood.

Valens is fabless, asset-light, and runs just-in-time manufacturing.

Inventory is ~$11M, not $82M as some screens still show (credit to @aleabitoreddit )

That’s normal for a chip designer with diversified suppliers and no factory risk.

Key https://t.co/Xbp4lQ7ap2


Summary: Author states a personal bearish thesis on ETH, citing negative changes to L1 scaling and token utility.

Arguments from authority are the worst ones because they hold no merit without any reasoning.

With Ethereum especially this is true when you see core aspects of it changing in a negative way (we went from L1 scaling with sharding -> L2s, and $ETH token going from a gas token that appreciated from usage to governance/collat).

If you want my background though, I invented how most wallets nowadays do key signatures with TEEs. And I was a researcher in dpos + secret sharing back at UC Berkeley. So I do know a tiny bit enough to comment.

We'll see where the price goes, it's my individual thesis on why I'm bearish, people are free to buy $BMNR and hold $ETH with their own money.

@aleabitoreddit @VitalikButerin @fundstrat glad you know more about this than the man who started and is running a $5B company an the man who created Eth!


Summary: SG's 8.2% drop is options-flow-driven, not fundamental; author calls it a buyable dip as hedging overshot.

@lionsfan5116 TBH, CFO retiring is nothing unless it's $SMCI.

$SG dropping 8.2% looks option flow-driven (10k+ $8 puts 9/19 caused MM shorts), not fundamental changes.

Hedging likely overshot the selloff, so I'd call it a buyable dip since drop was due to short term hedging. https://t.co/crWek6LeYR

@aleabitoreddit CFO retired, new cfo coming. False to say no news


Summary: Long NBIS: diversified clients, full-stack + software orchestration, and built-in profitability give it $100B+ upside and resilience through market corrections.

IREN might outperform near term just because of raw GW but $NBIS has the potential to outlast any market correction/crash and become the next $100B+ $MSFT with sum of parts investments.

Also they have diversified client base (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report)

Also full stack + software orchestration (we've seen why that's important with the $ORCL report and why $CRWV has been buying up software companies).

People are pricing in miners being able to pivot but there's always profitability risk as seen with oracle, hence why NBIS already has that down.


Summary: Bought WULF, WYFI, WLAC, BITF as a Neocloud basket play, citing WULF's relative underperformance vs peers CIFR/WYFI.

Today the WSB degen inside me spoke...

So aped into $WULF today to complete exodia of the Neoclouds after seeing it not go up much (3.6%) while $CIFR, $WYFI both went up 28%. (bought $WYFI, $WLAC and $BITF a little earlier on)

Similar $GOOGL contract as $CIFR. https://t.co/0oYU9TtaxV

Just a heads up about $WLAC to newcomers:

Try not to buy these types of low-float small MC stocks after-hours/pre-market due to really low liquidity + high spread (and if you do, place limit orders).

Bid-Ask is $13.8, Sell $15.08 right now as an example, so you're losing https://t.co/yWmQNQwhKo


bought $WYFI, $WLAC and $BITF a little earlier on


Summary: NBIS is undervalued on forward revenue/earnings; recommends buying now.

@blankeymonkey $NBIS is incredibly undervalued relative to forward revenue/earnings. Great add currently

@aleabitoreddit would you recommend buying anything now, or is it better off to wait to see what happens with the gov shutdown?


Summary: Long LPTH on military contractor adoption, US naval lab monopoly, and $10B+ long-term upside.

Appreciate it. I found that $LPTH was the US $AXTI basically and all the top military contractors from Andruil, Lockheed, L3Harris, $ONDS, and everyone were switching to them.

And they have the monopoly over it bc of US naval research lab licenses.

Can easily see this being a $10B+ company down the road.


Summary: Bearish ETH price: Fusaka upgrade boosted throughput but collapsed burn from thousands to ~6 ETH/day, net negative for token price.

@matthew_sigel Yeah but the amount of ETH burn is a solid 6 Ethereum a day from a few thousand last year.

Great for network adoption/utility, imo kinda bad for token prices. https://t.co/5Db1DCNJkk

ETH daily transactions hit all-time high after the Fusaka upgrade boosted throughput. https://t.co/hdFm1NKthA


Summary: Bullish AAPL: expects post-launch dip then buyback-driven rally to ~$256 within two weeks, repeating prior pattern.

In this world, nothing can be said for certain, except death, taxes... and

$APPL stock crashing after product launch, people panic selling, then Apple using buybacks to convince market that everyone likes the product.

($227 -> $256 in 2 weeks) https://t.co/Jy4SRAJFda

Sometimes I like to gamble too.

$APPL somehow always falls every Apple event when people say it’s bad.

Then a few days later rallies when they do buybacks and change public narrative like with Apple Intelligence.

I quite like the iPhone Air. This play is extremely high risk. https://t.co/d8Y1B0aDFP


Summary: Author lists stocks to buy for EOY 2025 as beneficiaries of 3 expected Fed rate cuts: small caps, real estate, fintech/lenders, and growth tech names.

IWM is the Russell 2000 ETF, passed through

🚨Polymarket now pricing in 3 Fed rate cuts in 2025.

Example stocks that benefit:

🟢Small Cap - Russell 2000, sub <10B mc
🔹 Real Estate / Housing - $OPAD, $OPEN, $ZW
🔹 Fintech/Lenders - $SOFi,  $RKT
🟢Growth Tech -  $NBIS, $SMCI, $IREN

Position accordingly for EOY 2025 https://t.co/niuv53xJA2


SoFi Technologies trades as SOFI on NASDAQ


Summary: At $3.9k+ ETH, author would not buy a dip; bearish on current level.

@SebastianS79509 I would just stay away from $BMNR.

I bought 6 fig of $ETH at $1600. I'd buy again if it dipped to $2200-$2400 and swing trade it under $2800.

Otherwise $3k+, especially $3.9k (where it's now), I wouldn't buy a dip.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you for your insights! Buyed NBIS Today. When you need to buy BMNR what realistic Price Target you would sell it?


Summary: Long both NBIS (high-beta, hyper growth, highest upside) and SMCI (30-60% return from valuation catchup, 60% growth at 11x forward P/E) over next 3 months.

So different basket of stocks. How I'd frame it is:

- $NBIS: high-beta, hyper growth, who knows where it goes. Highest possible upside (700% Y/Y core business, 100%+ Y/Y across 4 subsidiaries like Robotaxi FSD division).

For example if $UBER Texas robotaxi launch goes well with Avride this month and they expand elsewhere, we could see the subsidiary valuation rise a lot.

- $SMCI: profitable, moderate return from valuation catchup (still ~30-60% return). Growing 60% Y/Y but priced at 11 forward p/e like a no-growth stock eg. $PYPL / distressed asset like $MSTR.

For SMCI it's more about looking at the numbers/sector and seeing a misalignment (eg. $UPWK value investing)

@aleabitoreddit thank you for sharing! which one do you think would give more upside potential in the next 3 months NBIS or SMCI?


profitable, moderate return from valuation catchup (still ~30-60% return). Growing 60% Y/Y but priced at 11 forward p/e like a no-growth stock


Summary: Bullish dip-buying thesis: TSM easiest long ever, NBIS to $60B+ marketcap, CIFR/WULF Neocloud buys, FLNC re-rating, BTC/LTC amazing buys on AI buildout + rate cut catalyst.

Macro + Dip thoughts Oct 16th:

There's a ton going on, eg. $GLD hitting ATHs, but that's a whole different rabbit-hole on the USD.

Main stock drop today was due to a shock from regional banks, so I'll focus on that.

It's a great buying opportunity on:

Neoclouds with confirmed Mag7 contracts
- $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL), $WULF (GOOGL) etc.

AI Buildout
- Semis such as $TSM (Screaming buy it always seem to dips like this after blowout earnings to wipe off calls).

We already have blowout earnings numbers and increasing margins + forward revenue, $TSM is just the easiest long I've ever seen.

TSM printing money also supports this builtout thesis.

- Energy such as $FLNC will likely continue going up because of re-rating bc of data center buildout + AI use.

Crypto
- $BTC $107k, $LTC $90 all amazing buys, I'd be a tad more cautious of $CRCL and others though.

People probably have PTSD from 2023 silvergate, etc. going down and USDC depegging.

It's a much needed correction for certain stocks:

- Quantum
- Robotics/Drones
- Critical Minerals (only specific ones are likely good)

That have 0 revenue and are increasing parabolically off hype.

_

The difference is that Neoclouds + AI Buildout is confirmed revenue based on execution.

They're all national security risks but AI Buildout has the wealthiest hyperscalers in the world are backstopping it.

" $AMZN, $META, $MSFT, $GOGL, and others could spend an estimated 320B on capex this year". - BI

" $META, OpenAI, and $ORCL, have announced plans to spend more than $1 Trillion on Data Centers in the next several years"- BI

_

In terms of what happened in specific:

Markets dipped today on regional banking fears, but it's likely overblown. The latest scare was due to Zion/Western Alliance mainly due to borrower fraud.

My guess is that it's individual banks, not systemic banking collapses that would have credit tightening.

We have a near-confirmed rate cut (close to 98%) in 2 weeks time. This is a correction needed across the board (to wipe away the froth) + leverage traders + option flow. use this correction to go long.

This is still one the earliest parts of the whole AI buildout, I do expect $NBIS as an example to scale up to 4.5B-7B+ ARR in 1 year and $60B+ marketcap from here.

Again the hype built into Neoclouds are because of forward revenue growth (fundamentals), while the hype into Quantum/some drone companies, etc.  are based around promises.

It's a perfect time to scale up longs from companies with INSANE FORWARD REVENUE GROWTH (which will cause large re-ratings to marketcaps) not just industry narrative/speculation like Quantum.

$TSM blowout earnings as expected. They’re the center of the whole Neocloud trade and AI Buildout.

TSM is easily going to $450+ with 46% EPS y/y (expanding margins) and 37% revenue growth y/y. (Short term might be a little volatile because of option flow though)

✅ Revenue


I do expect $NBIS as an example to scale up to 4.5B-7B+ ARR in 1 year and $60B+ marketcap from here


It's a great buying opportunity on: Neoclouds with confirmed Mag7 contracts - $NBIS (MSFT) $CIFR (GOOGL)


$FLNC will likely continue going up because of re-rating bc of data center buildout + AI use


Full-stack is a moat because it optimizes internal opex and increases margins. It's not just purely an outward marketing play.

Summary: Bullish NBIS: full-stack approach is a genuine margin/opex moat, not just marketing.

A lot of people misunderstand this point with $NBIS :

Full-stack is a moat because it optimizes internal opex and increases margins. It’s not just purely an outward marketing play.

We’ve already seen why margins are important at scale when $ORCL a $800B giant had trouble with buildout with 14% gross.

@aleabitoreddit Actually, the Nebius guy sounds weak. He is afraid of the competition. And quite frankly, many hyperscalers don’t need proprietary software from a neocloud. They want to run their own software. They need the power and the ability to scale fast.


Summary: Bullish HIMS; 42% short interest sets up a potential 200%+ short squeeze, rally not done.

@mattia030339 @DavidJang0620 No lol there's 42% short interest. Could be a hilarious 200%+ short squeeze

@aleabitoreddit @DavidJang0620 what about $HIMS ? Do you think its done/close to finishing the rally? im thinking of selling  some of my position. Thank you


Look for beaten down names like $HIMS -41.9%... historically, these tend to rise first month of the year if they had accelerated sell offs due to end of year tax losses

Summary: January Effect mean-reversion play: HIMS, SMCI, SNAP, MRVL all down 23-54% flagged as likely to rally in January on post-tax-loss-harvesting bounce.

Happy New Year!

The strangest “seasonal anomaly" is the January Effect for mean reversion rallies.

Look for beaten down names like

$MSTR -53.9%, $HIMS -41.9%, or $SMCI -38.63% on 3M charts or companies like $SNAP -25% YTD, $MRVL -23% YTD

The primary candidates have strong forward earnings, but are down like Snapchat (perplexity, memory monetization), SMCI (50%+ forward y/y growth but dropped on q1->q2  backlog delay), or Marvell with triple digit revenue growth from Maia down the road.

The EoY tax harvesting is in full effect for the markets and this causes artificial downward pressure.

So, while you’re shopping for new year discounts, make sure to check there isn’t something fundamentally too broken. (Eg. MSTR is more risky because of MSCI delisting)

But, historically, these tend to rise first month of the year if they had accelerated sell offs due to end of year tax losses. This trend presents one of the most rewarding opportunities for traders.


$SMCI -38.63%... SMCI (50%+ forward y/y growth but dropped on q1->q2 backlog delay)... historically, these tend to rise first month of the year


$SNAP -25% YTD... Snapchat (perplexity, memory monetization)... historically, these tend to rise first month of the year


$MRVL -23% YTD... Marvell with triple digit revenue growth from Maia down the road... historically, these tend to rise first month of the year


$LITE is directly correlated to TPU ramp up... This is something I'm cost averaging shares with but it's a happy add to my portfolio

Summary: Long LITE via cost-averaging; bullish on TPU ramp correlation and ecosystem importance.

Yeah little sad I'm late to the $LITE party and it's ATHs right now.

But if we look what happened to $NVDA 2022 to now, same could happen if TPU ends up becoming a dominant player in inference.

and.. $LITE is directly correlated to TPU ramp up. Sadly didn't realize how vital it was to the ecosystem earlier. This is something I'm cost averaging shares with but it's a happy add to my portfolio.

@aleabitoreddit Insightful mapping. $LITE is the standout alpha here since $GOOGL OCS architecture prevents the commoditization seen in standard transceivers. Betting on infrastructure divergence is a smart strategy.


Summary: Bullish NBIS: author considers it undervalued at $100 after $17B hyperscaler deal de-risked the company.

@MktMavPro @Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 Hmm, nothing wrong with developing conviction after the $MSFT deal.

I had $NBIS sub $40 but only developed conviction after 17B+ from a hyperscaler de-risked the company.

That said everyone is entitled to their own opinion, I just think Nebius is undervalued at $100.

@Lazoumance1 @AnaCintra24 @aleabitoreddit Assuming referring to me.  I did sell before $MSFT to mitigate risk, however also bought back before the deal.


Summary: Bought CIFR Jan $11 calls, NBIS calls, and IREN shares on dips; risk/reward seen as favorable across miners.

Eh I normally don't do calls but risk/reward looks good to me on miners

Added $CIFR $30k worth of Jan calls $11 strike on the 5% drop to $11.

Added $NBIS $100k worth of calls, this was just one of the strikes on the 4.6% drop to $103.

Added $IREN shares $40.13 on the 13% drop. https://t.co/OP9EYjg34h

As promised to a follower, looked into $CIFR more. Good buy on the 17.54% drop. It's  ikely an overreaction due to the fact they had 1,414 BTC (-6.32%) on the balance sheet on top of macro.

$3B deal was over 10y, compared to $NBIS $17B for 5 years. 1B+ dilution news just now https://t.co/Z0Flcy6vTL


Added $NBIS $100k worth of calls, this was just one of the strikes on the 4.6% drop to $103


Added $IREN shares $40.13 on the 13% drop


Summary: High-conviction long NBIS as core holding; speculative long FLY as a 10x moonshot on reusable medium-lift rocket success.

@rocket5010 Not a full port. I'd only be comfortable with something like  $NBIS.

If you have extra, $FLY is just a literal 10x moonshot if they can make a re-usable medium lift rocket in the next year or two.

Risk levels are high, but it's a fun thing to own in case it works.

@aleabitoreddit Would FLY be one of those you recommended dumping my port into?


$FLY is just a literal 10x moonshot if they can make a re-usable medium lift rocket in the next year or two


Added $200k worth of $NBIS leaps at $98.8, December $105 2026 strike. If you understand the fundamentals and sector, this is a gift.

Summary: Added $200k in NBIS Dec 2026 leaps at $98.8/$105 strike; views 30% drop as a buying opportunity on fundamental conviction.

Added $200k worth of $NBIS leaps at $98.8, December $105 2026 strike.

Nebius dropping 30%+ in a week from $140 to $97 might make you second-guess yourself, but it’s times like these where conviction matters most.

If you understand the fundamentals and sector, this is a gift. https://t.co/Yv0s3t1cuy

Nebius is playing out exactly how institutions wanted:

Retail panic.

Capitulation.

Liquidity.

I’ve been saying this for weeks: $NBIS Institutional ownership is ~38%. Every trick in the book will be used to get that number to 65-80% like $HOOD:

Here's what and why this is https://t.co/sebk4BMtCP


there's an easy path to 300% gain and a $100B+ marketcap just by waiting 1 year for another hyperscaler contract

Summary: Heavy long NBIS ($2M+ shares/leaps) targeting 300%+ / $100B+ in 1 year; exited all other Neoclouds (IREN, CIFR, BITF, WULF) as inferior.

Neocloud Position Update Friday Oct 24.

This post is to send a message to $IREN and other Neoclouds holders that:

👑 $NBIS is superior.

I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss.

Now with $2M+ exposure in $NBIS shares/leaps + small $WLAC positions. Will add more Nebius positions next week if it stays at $115.

I don't normally post sales, but there's a lot of annoying Neocloud posts recently claiming that theirs is the best. So I'm posting this to send a message that $NBIS is clearly superior in terms of asymmetrical upside and already has Mag7 deals locked in. And because of this, there's no point of diversifying into other Neoclouds.

NBIS will likely have the highest margin moat from how they do full stack/GPU utilization with their diversified users. And their subsidiaries + portfolio companies (AI DBs, robotics/delivery, etc). are scaling alongside their operational business. There's also no exposure to bad interest debt that eats into margins.

There's an easy path to 300% gain and a $100B+ marketcap just by waiting 1 year for another hyperscaler contract and there's no point in speculating gross margins from Bitcoin mining pivots (see how $ORCL lost $100M+ just bc of GPU utilization + buildout -> rev lag) even if some might have larger capacity.

So just wanted to say: Nebius is THE Neocloud. 🫳🎙

Why I think $NBIS can easily hit ~$400/share or $100B+ market cap in 1 year:

Right now, Nebius trades at a $24B valuation (316%+ increase to $100B).

If we pretend that there's 0 growth in 2026-2027:

Core Business: $31B–$36.5B
Sum of Parts: $7.1B (40% slashed)
Midpoint


I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF, $WYFI, 50-100%+ gain, $WULF 5-10% loss


I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain


I sold out of other Neoclouds: $CIFR 250%+ gain, $IREN, $BITF


Summary: Long AXTI: owns full InP supply chain, benefits from indium price spikes, Japanese export controls leave it as dominant western supplier at only $1.3B market cap vs AI bottleneck value; NVDA demand driving upstream capacity strain.

So this is just my perspective on this. Lot of things have changed since the last earnings call,

1. Price of 7n Indium feedstock has started to spike on SMM and we're seeing bifurcation between asian supply chains + western ( $AXTI exports to western, which inflates their future margins that aren't already backlogged)

Dec 19th: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing.

December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week.

This affects the bottom line of InP substrate producers, but $AXTI owns the entire cost structure/supply chain so any price increases just benefit their margins.

2. Hyperscalers/Western supply chains pay premiums for substrates already. They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others.

-> We're already seeing slowdown for $MSFT and other hyperscaler deployments likely because of capacity.

-> They will go upstream to secure materials (which are extremely cheap, bc earlier they were commodities for telecom), then this just becomes game theory allocation wars like HBM. But instead of sk hynix, mu, samsung, and the others. You basically only have $AXTI left that can do it at scale.

EG. $GOOGL especially is heavily dependent on this, and $MSFT alone from maia was est. to take up double digits of the world's capacity if they wanted to ramp up, but there's literally not enough.

3. The biggest thing was that the Japanese InP substrate supply chain got export controlled, effectively making $AXTI the largest InP substrate provider when materials run out on the Sumitomo/JX side.

This is just pure what value would you place on single company point of failure on the photonics AI ramp. We can argue semantics but if it goes down the entire supply chain does too. eg. CEO was saying they were 40% of inp supply chain before export controls (and before their $100M fundraise to increase capacity).

And this huge bottleneck of the entire AI supply chain is valued at $1.3B, while random quantum companies with no material impact are worth $10B+.

It's hard to model bottlenecks where the few hundred million TAM is suddenly used for every single AI deployment because nobody knows where the substrate or feedstock pricing goes.

I looked at going long $AXTI a few days ago (wish I had!!), but could not get comfortable that margins will ramp up enough to justify the current valuation. The bull thesis is that both volumes and pricing for InP will continue to ramp hard, and eventually AXTI will print gross https://t.co/lZ3n8ftDXu


They are capacity strained after $NVDA secured EML capacity from $LITE, $COHR, and others


Summary: Long NBIS: market using wrong framework, underpricing hyperscaling subsidiaries (incl. Avride); author is early with high-return potential.

I sort of think the market missed the $NBIS story too. Jim Cramer for one is the perfect example.

Think we're just early but that's where the highest returns come from. Especially when the market discounts subsidiaries and doesn't price in that they're hyperscaling along the core business.

There's a distant possibility where one of them (Avride), becomes larger than the main business.

@aleabitoreddit $NBIS isn’t undervalued because the market missed the story.

It’s undervalued because the market is using the wrong framework.


Summary: Speculative long TSLA despite crap fundamentals; Musk signaling intent to pump the stock.

@unusual_whales Honestly, $TSLA has crap fundamentals, but might be a buy just because @elonmusk looks like he wants to pump the stock price up lol.

Tesla, $TSLA, is up 2.40% after Elon Musk said "Daddy's home." https://t.co/r7Zbcp70Mb


Summary: VLO, AVAV, and CVX flagged as safest plays on US gov subsidies for development; caution on weighting after amber energy bid outcome.

@FrontRangeHQ I did but it’s extremely risky so $VLO, $AVAV, and $CVX look the safest right now given US gov subsidies for development.

I’d be wary of the $5.9b amber energy bid that won so I’d change these weightings after today.

@aleabitoreddit Nice trade. Hope you weighted $GDRZF the heaviest!


Summary: Use government shutdown panic as opportunity to build long positions, including VIRT and VIX as asymmetric hedges.

US government shutdown confirmed.

As I expected a few hours ago, Polymarket  was pricing in almost 100% confirmation of a shutdown.

Institutions and traders already know about it but retail will panic on the news.

Use this golden opportunity to build long positions. https://t.co/HCkIqwCtnd

Personal thoughts for trading this October (macro + tailwinds):

1. Government shutdown is 97% likely, already priced in Polymarket.

Again, this was already known way ahead of time. Which is why stuff like $VIRT or $VIX that I posted is a asymmetrical hedge during times of


stuff like $VIRT or $VIX that I posted is a asymmetrical hedge during times of

VIX not directly tradable; VIXY as liquid proxy


I've taken a position in $AIRO and it's up +23% since this post 3 days ago. Markets still don't know about this Aerospace & Defense stock

Summary: Holds a live long position in AIRO drone/defense stock, trading at low P/S vs peers, with NATO/Ukraine order backlog and DoD tailwind.

I’ve taken a position in $AIRO and it’s up +23% since this post 3 days ago.

Markets still don’t know about this Aerospace & Defense stock, despite $ONDS hype.

It’s a drone stock ~$300m MC, with $120m+ est. for 2026 (~2.5 fwd p/s)

Others trade at 30-40+ multiples and bigger companies trade at ~9.3 p/s like $AVAV.

This stems from their $190M guidance for 2025-2026 bookings subtracted by est. FY 2025 ~$86.9M + growth.

There’s a huge tailwind for the sector coming from military conflicts in Venezuela/Ukraine and $1T DoD spending into defense.

$AIRO already has order backlog from NATO + Ukraine armed forces for drones like RQ-35 Heidrun, designed for GPS-denied environments (Ukraine - Russia conflicts).

There’s a lot of execution uncertainty due to their executive team history, but i like how:

-  Drone + Defense segment becoming extremely hot
-this one trading at extremely low levels of P/S
-what they’re building is cool like when I bought $RKLB at $15

+ In Q3 2025, AIRO missed revenue expectations badly ($6.3M reported vs. higher expectations) due to shipment delays. However, this is just deferred revenue, the stock dropped from $30 -> $10, I thought this could be a unique opportunity.

This is just a shower-thought post, by no means in-depth DD. Name of the game is execution, and this doesn’t seem to have any premiums.

So, I’ve taken a position in $AIRO just to see where it goes.

Welcome to 2026. Jan 1st ratings:

Strong Buy:
$TTD
$SMCI
$AIRO
$INTC
$HIMS
$AXTI
$TSM
$NBIS
$CIFR
Samsung Electronics (KRX: 005930)
$HUT
$IREN
$WULF
$GLXY
$TSSI
$META
$ETOR
$CRCL

Buy:
$KRKNF
$ONDS
$GEMI
$NVDA
$MU
$AMKR
SK Hynix
$SNAP
$RDDT
$AAOI
$COHR
$FISV
$FLY
$DJT
$LITE


Summary: Bullish FLY: reusable medium-lift rocket launching 2026, $4.5B cap with mega moat and government backing.

Okay last post of the night I promise:

$FLY ECLIPSE REUSABLE MEDIUM-LIFT ROCKET LAUNCHES AIMING 2026.

 $4.5B MARKET CAP. MEGA MOAT, backstopped by government + critical for national security.

I DON'T NEED TO SAY MORE.

Love,
Early $RKLB investor and Rocketlab Megabull. https://t.co/yAQpQGz1B5

Wow I cooked insanely hard with this ETF, everything is up a **** ton.

Anyway, some company changes I'd make + explanations:

$AMD - +10% (rerate)
$FLY - +3% (new)
$WLAC - +1% (new)
$MU - +1% (new)
$FLNC - .5% (new)
$SEI - .5% (new)
$DFLI - - .25% (new)

_

Trim (Tax harvesting)


Summary: NBIS is worth ~$138.75 today; expects it to run up to that level as convertible note approaches.

@babyfolio I'm guessing until convertible note hits like $138.75-ish.

$NBIS is worth that valuation today (thought it normally takes some time to run up).

My guess:
$NBIS will run to around 150$ pre-earnings with big expectations
From there? It depends on guidance and clarity on $MSFT deal.

Think it's delusional?


AIデータセンター分野で最も非対称な上昇余地を持つのは $NBIS

Summary: Long NBIS as the highest asymmetric upside in AI data center; relatively insulated from credit tightening and GPU execution risks hitting other neo-cloud peers.

Thanks for sharing! 市場急落で多くの高ベータ成長資産が30〜50%下落している今、基礎が揺らがずむしろ強化された銘柄へ再配置する局面。AIデータセンター分野で最も非対称な上昇余地を持つのは  $NBIS 。

信用収縮やGPU実行リスクで $IREN $CRWV  などのネオクラウド企業が影響を受けた一方、NBIS  はその懸念から相対的に隔離されている。

"Nebius（ $NBIS ）は株価86.69ドルで、「ネオクラウド＆AIインフラ」の中で残された最も“純粋な非対称”の投資先だ。

これは、 $CIFR や $WULF 、あるいはコロケーション型プロバイダーが手を付けていない、最大級の売上規模を持つネオクラウド企業で、以下の問題を抱えていない：

・ $IREN や $ORCL


Summary: Bullish on RKIB and NBIS over ~3 months on Fed rate cut tailwind plus growing fundamentals.

I’ve held the same view as before. Recent selloff is carry trade unwind from reload after boj hike and fed rate cut.

Carry trade unwind is much more impactful than 3x rate cut near term.

And now we’ve seen the result of that selloff.

But Dec 10ths fed rate cut is incredibly bullish for risk assets from $RKlB to $NBIS medium term like 3 months out, especially when they have growing fundamentals.

@Coinvo Yo sensei @aleabitoreddit, I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this; I’ve read your takes on the Japanese Yen Carry trade & you seem plugged into their markets.


Summary: Long LTC 300% potential in coming months on ETF catalyst, small MC, supply constraints, and institutional adoption.

Heads up, #LTC is a potential 300% in the next few months.

1. LTC ETF October 2nd and the front running has just begun (up 5.35% since I posted.

2. Puny 8B MC with institutional adoption.

3. Small amounts of LTC reserves will literally eat up majority of the supply and 5-15% of the supply is already permanently lost.

I don’t post much about crypto, and the main time I did was with #ETH before it went from $1600 to $4800.


Summary: Prefers OSS over KRKNF on higher upside potential; holds a long position.

@drakeondigital I’ve known about $KRKNF for awhile and I do like it. But I personally think $OSS has a lot higher upside, which is why I chose OSS.

@aleabitoreddit you will prob like $krknf as well


$TSM will probably rally to $1.8T market cap, so try and find a good dip if you're tagging along

Summary: Long TSM via LEAPS (~$300k), targets $1.8T market cap; advises buying dips.

These were the exact strikes I bought yesterday if you were curious. I was cost averaging, but probably scaling it to $300k worth of leaps

$TSM will probably rally to $1.8T market cap, so try and find a good dip if you’re tagging along. https://t.co/xyvc7WdSU7

$TSM is a screaming buy.

Look at $NVDA rally -> $AVGO rally -> this will flow into TSM.

$1.3T -> $1.8T given all the backlogs from Oracle/NBIS, etc. after reading all earnings.

I almost never buy calls aside from $GOOG back at $150. But IV is decent ~32 and it’s such a great https://t.co/k5hrCe9P8w


$NBIS has stupidly high forward earnings to back up fundamentals so it's just a waiting game

Summary: Buying opportunity in NBIS; macro-driven selloff with no stock-specific news, strong forward earnings back the fundamentals.

@John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger This is just macro, not happened to the individual stock so it’s a buying opportunity.

Most high beta names without any news are down today. But difference is $NBIS has stupidly high forward earnings to back up fundamentals so it’s just a waiting game

@aleabitoreddit @DeepValueBagger NBIS getting cooked today, is this another retail shakeout?


Summary: After broad selloff, expects fundamentals-intact names CIFR, NBIS, TSM, HOOD, RDDT to recover while speculative no-revenue stocks stay down.

Pretty disgusting correction across the board.

Last 5 days for high-beta growth stocks:

• $SMCI -26.11%
• $RKLB -19.85%
• $CRCL -19.81%
• $NBIS -19.14%
• $WYFI -18.55%
• $ALAB -16.64%
• $CRDO -16.8%
• $HOOD -14.36%
• $ASTS -14.09%
• $IREN -13.22%
• $AMD -11.63%
• $CIFR -10.05%
• $RDDT -9.00%

Speculative no revenue stocks like ( $RGTI -27.33%, $QBUT -25.5%, $QBTS -25.43%, $OKLO -17.04% etc), had larger corrections across the board.

When the government reopens, I’d expect many of the speculative names to stay down, while companies where fundamentals are in tact (eg. $CIFR, $NBIS, $TSM, $HOOD, $RDDT) would recover.

Current Contract Market data:
Nov 12th-15th: 22%
Nov 15th: 49% (~half chance sometime in the next week)
Nov 30th: 92%

Great time to position into higher-beta stocks during large corrections, (if fundamentals are in-tact), especially when we're in the extreme-fear part of markets and there's 75%+ of a third rate cut next month.

Broad selloffs like these are also why you don't do short dated options <30dte, even if you are correct on earnings like $SNAP or $CIFR.

Ignore the noise and hold positions/add in market winners.

You have:

- Insane forward revenue growth from Neoclouds like $NBIS, $IREN, $CIFR
- Record high CapEX projections from Mag7 earnings like $META to $MSFT
- Record high forward revenue projections + margin growth from https://t.co/kz4KfhAZhQ


$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it. Right now they're supply constrained from demand. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least

Summary: Long LITE: monopoly on OCS photonics, supply-constrained, every major AI chip depends on it, no near-term competitive threat.

$LITE is in the goldilocks moment where every single GOOGL TPU + hyperscaler ASIC + NVDA blackwell depends on it.

Right now they're supply constrained from demand (similar to Micron).

From what I understand, photonics right now is a duopoly ( $COHR and Lite).

However, for OCS, which is what Google TPU architecture uses for better performance, $LITE is a monopoly from their patent portfolio + tech. If $MSFT, $AMZN end up adopting OCS, it's just a holy moment for LITE.

Hyperscaler vertical intergration of InP fabs is just way too difficult near term. Nobody will likely replace them next few years at least (maybe 2027-2028 increasing competion from $AVGO) but as of now, they're just supply constrained right now.

@aleabitoreddit $LITE is already on the market for more than 10 years so I assume they have a certain production capacity atm, how easily can they scale up production?

And how protected is their monopoly? There will be other firms that will try do to the same thing or hyperscalers who want to


Summary: Bullish HIMS: 3 rate cuts provide tailwind for short squeeze given 42% short interest, and growth stocks benefit in lower-rate environments.

@mattia030339 Yeah definitely. 3 rate cuts = strong tailwind for 42% short interest squeeze.

Growth stocks usually perform better in those environments

@aleabitoreddit can $HIMS benefit from this as well?


Summary: Bullish NBIS: software-driven orchestration creates a durable revenue premium and highest gross margin normalization — a genuine moat vs bare-metal IaaS peers.

So you skipped over my reply.

There are overlaps in $NBIS, $IREN customer base, but the nuance you’re missing is orchestration on the infrastructure level leads to better opex and margins.

To help explain it simpler terms $NBIS commands an additional revenue premium and ends up with the highest gross margin normalization because of added software on top. That is moat.

On the iaas layer, bare-metal GPU delivery what $IREN does, still requires software for increasing margins and optimizing opex and this is a major difference as well. It’s software at the infrastructure level, not platform services.

When you combine that iaas layer and don’t have opex optimized, and port middleware that take fees (eg. Poolside) on top, that’s where margins start to show.

@aleabitoreddit People keep talking about ‘software moats,’ but IREN and Nebius don’t even serve the same type of customers. Nebius builds PaaS for teams that need orchestration. IREN sells GPU IaaS to AI Natives who already run far more advanced orchestration on their own


A $1.3B company bottlenecking the entire AI buildout looks cheap to me. I do expect an extremely large price squeeze which just increases the bottom line of $AXTI

Summary: Long AXTI: InP/indium phosphide is the next AI buildout bottleneck; hyperscalers desperate for allocation; $1.3B company looks cheap given TAM squeeze potential.

Standard modeling like NTM breaks when there's extremely unconventional bottlenecks like HBM with $MU or Sk Hynix.

HBM demand is so inelastic rn that buyers aren't asking for price, they're asking for allocation even after hundreds of percent increases.

And in this case InP and $AXTI will likely be the next bottleneck in the upcoming months, just based on existing shortages from $NVDA EML H1 2025 and how others like $MSFT require the world's double digit inp output just for their program for H2 2026 into 2027.

So it's impossible to model bottlenecks where few hundred million TAM previously might squeeze to few billion or tens of billions when hyperscalers like $GOOGL are desperate for allocation so their TPU program doesn't stall out.

This is buying into bit-allocation, feedstock control, and bottlenecks. A $1.3B company bottlenecking the entire AI buildout looks cheap to me. I don't know where this is heading, but I do expect an extremely large price squeeze (we're seeing it now on SMM), which just increases the bottom line of $AXTI.

License volatility was always a risk factor. But again, any delays would just bottleneck the entire AI buildout since this is single point of failure if China continues their export controls on Japan.

@aleabitoreddit @beauty_oe What are your estimates? Stock is trading over ~12x ntm sales. Current fy26 estimates are ~124mn up from ~100mn pre-earnings in Oct. FWIW I’m not debating historical contracted revenues lol, the issue is export license volatility because that impacts *future* revs


Summary: Bought ORCL calls on the dip.

@__visionxry__ I ended up buying $ORCL calls lol, dip was too tempting https://t.co/WOE1qNbq7I

@aleabitoreddit I did shares as well at 283.90, for the weeklys it was only a small amount so im not too concerned if it doesnt recover right away


Summary: Both VRT and NVT seen as long plays on AI/DC buildout; NVT flagged as better risk-adjusted at lower valuation multiple.

lol there's a lot of ticker comments, can't respond to every one. So for $VRT it's a high beta exposure to DC buildout, from Q3 earnings $2.6B revenue 29% y/y, guided FY $10.2B midpoint, overall margins grew eg.  adjusted operating profit increased 43% to $596 million in Q3. The latter probably indicates better pricing power like memory sector from a severe shortage of power infrastructure components and grid capacity limitations.

$NVT might be better risk-adjusted return at current marketcaps (24.5x EV/EBITDA), vs. 33x.  But that aside, energy not my field of expertise so I can't give detailed nuanced opinions like neoclouds or fintech.

However, I can probably say Vertiv directionally should be outperform due to backdrop of AI infra buildout + power supply constraints and it's role (eg. cooling, 800vdc power that they're doing with nvda)

@aleabitoreddit Day 2 of asking your thoughts on Vertiv.


$NVT might be better risk-adjusted return at current marketcaps (24.5x EV/EBITDA), vs. 33x


Summary: Expects the stock to move higher after institutional accumulation at the dip shook out weak hands.

DW, Reddit is always regarded. But I don't think market manipulation is a good way to word it. My guess was sector short timed with The Information hit piece -> instituions taking advantage of mechanical hedging from MMs from counterparty selling of shortdated calls + puts to exaggerate downside (+ pinning from last week)

Then few red days after -> retail panic selling to $94 -> institutions soaking up sales without moving prices.

And with more data surfacing, turned out to be pretty accurate with institutional accumulation at bottom. Weak hands got shaken off I guess and now we go higher, but FinX community probably made a lot of money off the dip.

@aleabitoreddit The clowns on r/nbis_stock were mocking your post the other day about market manipulation, hopefully they feel silly now, but I doubt it. Seemed too obvious even to me. Anyway thanks again for all the great and informative information.


Summary: Bullish WULF: high short interest (35.85%) + Google backstop creates significant upside potential.

@__visionxry__ $WULF has hilarious upside too because it's 35.85% shorted with $GOOGL backstopping them.

@aleabitoreddit 730 shares at 97! thats half my port lol. Never had a stock be so much of my port before. I also entered into $wulf today, already had $iren and $cifr so I figured id get into the whole sector😂😂


Summary: Buy AMZN on the 2.7% dip following Powell's cautious rate-cut commentary.

@mattia030339 @AnaCintra24 It didn't change Polymarket, still pricing in 65% chance of triple rate cut.

I'd use this to opportunity to buy stuff like $AMZN that dropped 2.7%

@aleabitoreddit @AnaCintra24 Powell mentioned today’s 25 bps cut and said they’ll stay cautious with future moves. How does that fit with your idea of a triple cut?


Summary: Bullish AMD as markets reprice it toward NVDA-like status.

$AMD is actually insane wtf.

Markets are repricing it as the next $NVDA I guess. https://t.co/cuH0dEjd0n

Some days there’s not much activity.

New 1Y+ long positions;

- $AMD shares at $215
- $WYFi shares at $33
- UNH 1Y leaps Jan 2027

DCA $FLNC & SEI on drop for high risk energy plays.

DCA RDDT $198 on 4% drop.

Trimmed misc positions for EOY tax harvesting.


Summary: Bullish CIFR: Google took a 5.4% stake via a deal with Fluidstack; author implies Google backing is a positive catalyst.

@Potato___Dragon They got a deal from $GOOGL + Fluidstack with Google taking a 5.4% share.

Usually things Google owns turns out well like SpaceX.

@aleabitoreddit new here, does CIFR received a deal or something?


Summary: Expects ETOR to rise next year after current tax-loss harvesting pressure subsides.

@ThatIsIt11 It’s being tax harvested right now, will likely rise next year

@aleabitoreddit are u still confident on your $ETOR position?


Summary: Author flags AMZN as most tempting play on IV return potential into market open.

This is why people shouldn’t do short term options! (I saw a lot of WSB posts about $TSM weeklies for earnings).

It’s correct directionally but random events like this happen to wipe out calls.

But yeah I think $AMZN looks the most tempting just cause of IV return potential, we’ll see what holds market open.

@aleabitoreddit It certainly has cleansed my options portfolio 😅


Summary: Buying META calls on the selloff; expects 2-6 day recovery like last year, calls it a huge opportunity.

Added 6 figures in Jan-Feb $META calls.

Same thing happened last year April and it took 2-6 days for full recovery.

Earnings beat, fundamentals in tact. Same story about capex spend.

Might be 2 day flush so cost averaging but this selloff is a huge opportunity. https://t.co/S3CwYsdaU4

I'm researching new stocks that actually look interesting - rare lately

There's no need to paywall or gatekeep new stocks like others

So just going to share them:

1. $LGN - DC buildout. Mag7 like $APPL, $MSFT, $GOOGL, $TSLA, $AMZN as clients.

2. $LYC.AX - Sole


$SNAP flipped the switch, making their biggest expense a revenue stream. There's two things that SNAP needed to do to grow vs. $META, $RDDT... From ~$8.50 today -> potential +50–100%+ upside within 12–18 months

Summary: Long SNAP: monetizing storage flips major OPEX into revenue, driving $630M FCF improvement and 50–100%+ upside in 12–18 months via re-rating.

The Snapchat Thesis: How a 🐶💩 Stock Re-Rated from Sell to Buy.

$SNAP flipped the switch, making their biggest expense a revenue stream.

There's two things that SNAP needed to do to grow vs. $META, $RDDT.

and... Snapchat finally did it, well one of two.

That is:

1. Monetize Memories (Storage) - potential 50%%+ upside.

2. Compete vs Tiktok with a public web app + Tiktok-style feed (1000%+ upside)

Snapchat finally flipped the switch with #1 and made their biggest OPEX expense a revenue stream: They monetized storage and deleted wasteful storage.
_

Snap brings in $1.35B revenue a quarter and is growing at healthy rates with 1B+ MAU. Despite large revenue numbers, they're not profitable. Why?

Because countless people like myself have stored GBs of videos taken from 10 years ago. Snapchat has been paying Google Cloud to store all of that for free. Google Cloud costs  just eats so much into its net profits every quarter.

So with this recent change - charging users (like iCloud) for storage, which is a huge new revenue stream,

On top of reducing OpEx by a massive margin, Snapchat just got a rerating.

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Cloud Cost Breakdown

Snap’s cloud infrastructure is one of its largest costs, historically over $2.4B annually (cost of revenue).

Most of that is storage + bandwidth for features like Memories and videos.

Memories + video archives ≈ 35-40% of cloud spend (estimates)

~90% of users under the 5GB cap (no cost change), but 10% heavy users hold the majority of stored data

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If Snap deletes ~50% of existing stored data (non-paying users’ old videos/photos)

Result:

40% of $2.4B = $960M cloud cost baseline tied to Memories

50% reduction in heavy-user storage ~ $480M savings (aggressive est.)

After accounting for data migration, partial reallocation, misc:

-> Snap may realistically realize ~40% of that, or ~$180–200M OPEX saved annually

This goes straight to operating profit + FCF, since it’s a pure cost cut.
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Revenue from Paid Storage (Small User Base Scenario)

Assuming a small number of users pay-far less than iCloud’s 60% adoption:

MAU: ~900 million, Paying users: 2% (~18 million)

Average plan: $2.49/month (most on $1.99 or $3.99 tiers)

ARPU: ~$30/year

Revenue = 18M × $30 = $540M per year

Subtract ~$100M in hosting -> $440M net

This revenue is recurring, high-margin, and adds directly to FCF.
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Estimated Combined Annual Impact:

OPEX savings (cloud) = +$190M

Paid storage revenue= +$540M

Storage costs (COGS) = –$100M

Net FCF improvement= +$630M

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Valuation Rerating

If the market rerates Snap based on ~$850M sustainable FCF:

Apply a 35× EV/FCF multiple (typical for growth tech with improving margins)

EV ≈ $30B → Market cap ≈ $31–33B

Aggressive Multiple FCF est. $850M
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Market Cap

25 × $21.25B EV ~ $22–23B mc (~$13–14/share)

30 x $25.5B EV ~ $26B mc (~$15–16/share)

35 x $29.75B EV ~ $31–32B mc (~$19–20/share)

From ~$8.50 today -> potential +50–100%+ upside within 12–18 months, assuming:

- Execution is smooth (no major user backlash, but really don't think users would quit.) Personally I'd just pay for it since I used Snap 5-10 years ago but don't want my data deleted.

- 3 Fed rate cuts compress discount rates

- Investors credit forward FCF

Of course, all of this only happens 1 year from now. Also, I'm going off a lot of assumptions, such as 2% of users will pay (eg. Dropbox), vs. ICloud has 60% of users.

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Just thought I'd give a shoutout to @fossinvest, a small account I found while doing DD. They also did the math but used more aggressive calculations + similar idea, I'll give them credit for the image.
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I could be wrong with speculating the numbers (eg. $100-150M opex, and 1% paying users, but even with this FCF gets a huge boost).

Either way, this is the largest material change SNAP has made for both revenue generation and operational expense cuts in history and it deserves a re-rating after.

Market and hedge funds will now start to price this in since they're forward looking, but will take some time to digest the news.

The NeoCloud Thesis: Hyperscaler Capex Funnel

Why I'm putting $1.5M+ into Neoclouds, and why this might be a 200-300%+ return.

🔹 Buckets

Mag7 contracts: $CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅

With compute: $IREN ✅, $BITF

Speculative: $WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH

Miners pivoting to


Summary: Bullish MRVL: debunks bearish analyst claim that it only did connectivity; confirms full XPU design win with meaningful FY2028 revenue.

Yeah great note. That alone addresses the analyst claims $MRVL was only doing connectivity while losing the actual design to a competitor like Alchip too.

How institutional analysts can spread misinformation like this, wipe off $10B+ or 14-20% in stock price saying DG because of Marvell was only doing connectivity, send cascading narrator through institutional notes, then say “just kidding” when nobody is paying attention a week ago is wild.

“There’s meaningful FY 2028 revenue already too from XPU designs” pretty important to read too.

@aleabitoreddit Some people who can't/wont pay attention properly claim Marvell is only doing an XPU-attach for Trainium 3. But Murphy clearly said on the earnings call that it is an XPU:
"Next year's custom revenue forecast comprehends a transition to a next-gen XPU at a large customer..."


Summary: Bullish on LITE, COHR on pricing power; flags AXTI and photonic supply chains as overlooked bottleneck opportunity akin to HBM.

Yep, $LITE and $COHR are amazing and are up quite a bit since they tons pricing power.

Go few levels deeper into $AXTI (vertically integrated), Sumitomo -> Dowa, etc. the concentration risk + bottleneck flashes warning signs.

With HBM, it was an investment opportunity when people found that bottleneck. There's likely that same overlooked opportunity with photonic supply chains now when hyperscalers hoard materials and acquire capacity.

@aleabitoreddit This is elite level supply chain work. The market is already sniffing it out: $LITE is up 304% vs the S&P over 6 months, $COHR up 110%. When the picks and shovels outperform the miners by that much, someone figured out where the real bottleneck lives.


Go few levels deeper into $AXTI (vertically integrated)


There's likely that same overlooked opportunity with photonic supply chains now when hyperscalers hoard materials and acquire capacity


Summary: Bearish NUAI: massive below-market dilution potential via ATW AI equity financing and proposed 3B+ share authorization leaves retail holders with no path to benefit.

I looked into $NUAI earlier, their dilution is a red flag for retail investors unless they refinance.

They have an equity financing with ATW AI LLC allowing issuance of $1B of shares 95% market discount. Repeat: Way below-market dilution potential.

They also proposed another 3B+ share authorization.

Unless they refinance or avoid drawing from the EPFA, I don't see how retail holders can benefit from holding shares apart from short term pumps + expanding rev by a ton (which involves dilution + financing).

@aleabitoreddit You should look into $NUAI as well.


Summary: Three undiscovered 10x candidates: SIDU (LEO satellite services/defense), ACMR (China semi equipment replacing AMAT/LRCX), AIRO (drone/counter-drone warfare).

Bruh $AXTI and $OSS was barely mentioned until 2 weeks ago.

1. $SIDU ($222m) - Vertically integrated LEO satellite as a service company. They build satellites, but customize it for other companies.

->contract under the Missile Defense Agency's (MDA) SHIELD ($151 billion total)
-> subcontractor for NASA
-> alpha is that it's vertically integrated so they could pivot build out Starshield or golden dome defense, etc which brings incredible value.

Downside? Heavy dilution -> they just diluted at $1.3 so if you're buying at now $3.4, you're buying close to 3x the price as underwriters.

2. $ACMR ($3.4B) - Basically becoming the $AMAT  and $LRCX of China since the latter two got banned. Default infra for Chinese semi industry is the thesis.

3. $AIRO ($390m) - Easy to look at $ONDS ($5B) or $AVAV ($18B) to see 10x potential.
 -> expanding from GPS-denied environment drones to kamikaze drones like $AVAV
->  bullet drones that intercepts drones and detonates

Huge, huge growing market that markets don't fully understand yet.

Everyone is building up drone capacity, then you also need to destroy the enemy drones too. These are already battle tested in Ukraine

I am looking for the next moonshot.

Give me your top 3 gems that no one is talking about yet.

I don't want to hear about the $OSS, $ONDS, $NBIS, $AXTI's of the world...

I want stocks that have the potential to 10x in the coming years and that are still undiscovered...

I will


Basically becoming the $AMAT and $LRCX of China since the latter two got banned. Default infra for Chinese semi industry is the thesis.


Easy to look at $ONDS ($5B) or $AVAV ($18B) to see 10x potential. -> expanding from GPS-denied environment drones to kamikaze drones like $AVAV -> bullet drones that intercepts drones and detonates


Summary: Long NBIS: market mispricing hyper-growth subsidiaries (Avride, Toloka, Clickhouse); sum-of-parts valuation well below fair value with triple-digit growth across units.

$NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why:

Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride.

What people also don't know is this:

$NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y.

Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT,  Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm.

Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business.

While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate.

We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka.

Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue.

Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B.

But given their growth rate we’ll likely see:

Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward.

Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward

Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time.

In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows.

In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies.

$NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.

Nebius [ $NBIS ] core business is insanity. 700%+ Y/Y growth to $7-9B+ ARR in 1Y.

What's more insane is this.

Their subsidiary can outgrow their main business 🤯

Here's why:

$GOOGL Waymo, $TSLA, $AMZN Zoox, Motional, $NBIS Avride are the only 5 FSD US Robotaxi companies https://t.co/2Nsn1YOh4t


Summary: Long NBIS as future Neocloud leader on 700% ARR growth + 5Y hyperscaler contracts; NVDA fears overblown mid-term.

Agreed, $NBIS is the clear future leader of the Neocloud sector if we look at things 6M from now rather than present earnings.

Shorting $CRWV would have been a good hedge against the recent market drop.

I liked Nebius because alongside their core business growing ARR 700% y/y they have 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y.

That being said the biggest headwind is dilution. I hated that they diluted 25M shares and not just enough for the $META deal. Nasdaq 100 inclusion alongside post-msci would offset that but otherwise it’s a constant overhang on the price as an investor.

Second are depreciation arguments and potential long term threats from the Google TPU on the Nvidia ecosystem I’d say. Which is why Colo providers like $CIFR have been outperforming.

However lot of those fears about $NVDA are overblown mid term and Nebius has 5Y contracts locked in with hyperscalers so it’s just a waiting game for scale.

Just mindblowingly high return potential.

@aleabitoreddit Again an incredible write up. No matter which way you look at $NBIS is such an amazing investment. My largest holding. From a TA perspective, we need a clear breakout above $100 which may open the door to $115.
On the downside, if we lose $88 likely tests $81.


lot of those fears about $NVDA are overblown mid term


I've been arguing Nebius is structurally misvalued and misunderstood because there's 4 subsidiaries like Avride growing 100%+ Y/Y but markets/algorithms aren't pricing in the moving parts

Summary: Long NBIS: structurally misvalued with 4 subsidiaries growing 100%+ Y/Y not priced in by markets or algorithms.

Nope, it’s not even news for $NBIS.

Just now, Avride launch with $UBER is probably the biggest headline of the decade for the portfolio company but its not even correlated to Nebius on places like $GOOGL / $HOOD news aggregators (which algorithms rely on too)

This is why I’ve been arguing Nebius is structurally misvalued and misunderstood because there’s 4 subsidiaries like Avride growing 100%+ Y/Y but markets/algorithms aren’t pricing in the moving parts

@aleabitoreddit Alleluia, let’s hope for a positive stock reaction 😊


Summary: HIMS rated Hold with a buy trigger at $50 and strong buy at $45; NBIS preferred as a better long.

I'd put $HIMS on Hold. Too many headwinds like Trump launching a US Gov direct to consumer competitor. But at the same time could go up cause it dipped 9.2% today.

I'd switch it to Buy if it dropped another few percent to $50, strong buy around $45.

It's at a pretty good spot fundamentally so it's worth holding, but there's better longs like $NBIS.

@aleabitoreddit Should HIMS also be a strong buy at 53.XX?