Summary: Bullish on KOSPI, EWY, Samsung, and SK Hynix following South Korea's political development.

^KS11 is KOSPI; EWY is the tradable proxy

TIL: South Korea’s President was a day trader?

Now I understand why KOSPI, $EWY, Samsung, and SK Hynix are getting sent to the moon. https://t.co/9YqBHkxdjI


structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


Samsung, and SK Hynix are getting sent to the moon


Summary: Bullish all memory names (MU, SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung) on no H2-2027 price correction, hyperscaler demand outstripping supply, and surging operating margins.

Memory Price Market Research from Counterpoint:

"There is no scenario where memory prices correct in the second half [of 2027], given that hyperscaler purchasing intent remains unbroken"

In regards to $SNDK, $MU, $EWY (Sk Hynix, Samsung), and other memory names.

They commented: DRAM output from Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, CXMT, and Nanya is forecast to grow 26% this year, with NAND up 24%.

But hyperscaler demand will likely far outstrip supply for the foreseeable future.

This mirrors $INTC CEO's comments about "No Relief on Memory Shortage Until 2028".

With NAND prices Q1 increasing 100% + Samsung hiking NAND prices Q2.

And DRAM prices going through constant price hikes.

The explosive increase in operating margins from memory makers across the board are poised to outweigh any macro.


Samsung Electronics listed on KOSPI as 005930.KS


Summary: Bullish AAOI even at elevated price: 3 hyperscaler clients absorbing all 800G/1.6T output, $4B+ ARR on 900%+ growth.

@xoRachelPitzel $AAOI is probably going a lot than this.

They have 3 hyperscaler clients looking to buy all the 800G/1.6T transcievers they can produce with $4B+ ARR revenue foretasted off 900%+ y/y growth.

"they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6"

@aleabitoreddit Confirming you think even at the elevated price it’s still a buy? This one is newer to me, thx


Summary: Bullish AEHR approaching inflection from speculative small-cap to mass-order ramp; hyperscaler volume production transition could trigger massive rerating.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Feels like $AEHR ($1.2B) is close to hitting its inflection point from a speculative small cap to mass order ramp.

Just last week they received another $14M order.

And today another follow-up order from their silicon photonics customer.

Once their customers/hyperscalers transition to “high-volume manufacturing" and "volume production”, would likely trigger a massive rerating cycle for $AEHR.

Feels more likely for it to happen than not given the weekly news of orders this year.


Summary: Buying opportunity in AAOI after drop; endorses Rosenblatt's sub-$8B-too-low thesis on $4B 2027 revenue potential; GOOGL/AVGO signaling pluggable transceiver life extensions adds optionality.

Nothings changed with $AAOI and it looks like a buying opportunity.

I’d side with Rosenblatt analysts here where “The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B”.

Analysts can be bearish on execution, and scaling capacity was always the focal question.

Don’t think anything’s new around here and this will always be debated until they actually deliver. Hyperscaler demand is not a question.

$GOOGL and $AVGO also signaled pluggable transceiver life extensions, but since $AAOI covers the supply chain from laser to design to assembly, they can have optionality that most people miss

@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on $AAOI after today’s drop? Still holding 💪


$GOOGL and $AVGO also signaled pluggable transceiver life extensions

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: Bullish COHR as a multi-sector bottleneck play appearing across space, robotics, and AI supply chains.

@platochi $COHR is like the Western Unimicron (in the sense they show up everywhere on future bottlenecks like SiC to InP, not comparing downstream/upstream).

When I do these supply chain mapping in space, robotics, AI, I like to invest in ones that just pop up multiple places.

@aleabitoreddit I've had $COHR on my watchlist for a while now, guess it's time to do a deeper dive


Summary: Avoiding SHMD despite glass-substrate thesis: dilution from warrants/notes/resale of 95M shares will outpace minor revenues until at least 2028.

I think a lot of people on X got $SHMD right in terms of their critical role for glass substrates/etc.

But it doesn't mean it's a great stock due to financials and I'm personally avoiding it (could be wrong though).

There's 46.6 million new shares tied to warrants, convertible notes, and an earlier €10M loan. It also permits the resale of up to 95 million shares.

I don't think their minor revenues now will outpace dilution. Maybe later in 2028

@aleabitoreddit could i get your thoughts on $shmd  as well?


Summary: Bullish VPG as a robotics moonshot on Optimus robot production revenue ($850M–$8.5B at 1M–10M units).

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'

The $VPG hard carry, +23% 5D.

For people that don’t know, Elon Musk converted Tesla factories for Optimus production on $TSLA ER.

This company makes est. $850 midpoint/robot.

1M Optimus = ~$850M revenue
10M Optimus = ~$8.5B revenue

My robotics moonshot pick. Watch and learn https://t.co/a8J8aUtlSL

$SNDK - Even after a 16% increase, the forward 2027 p/e is still single digits.

That’s how profitable the memory supercycle is with $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, and others

The AI demand + price hikes looks like the new structural norm. https://t.co/6RG14zqEpr


Summary: Long Soitec on CPO/Silicon Photonics substrate monopoly at depressed valuations; expects 40%+ re-rating driven by NVDA GTC catalyst.

Don't think any "Analyst" from Citi or Kepler should be surprised why $SOI:

A 1X book CPO/Silicon Photonics Substrate virtual monopoly (now ~1.4).

Gets re-rated 40%+.

Especially after a digestable analysis gets distributed for people to build their own conviction on.

Times have changed:

Institutions want dumb, popular "influencers" to publish longs on Paypal and other overbought stocks.

Or encourage folks on WSB to buy 0DTE call options on $TSLA.

I'm doing supply-chain research on an undervalued billion dollar European bottlenecks/chokepoints. Then gave that research away for free.

Not paywalled for $2000+ behind institutional research notes.

Free.

I'm educating retail on my own thought process regarding supply chain bottlenecks, photonics, and fundamentals.

Then putting that into a simple enough thesis, so they can form their own opinions.

And for the first time, retail is able to front-run institutions on fundamental bottlenecks.

Just look at $AXTI: I posted at ~$500m valuation for every retail investor.

And now, institutions are piling in, sending it to $2.6 billion+ as the fundamental InP substrate provider to the photonics industry.

This is the quiet part said out loud:

When a free and popular X account successfully educates retail on highly strategic, fundamentally undervalued tech companies like Soitec:

It completely disrupts the institutions' ability to paywall research and frontrun retail investors. There’s no reason to downplay the trend.

I believe stocks are a positive sum game, so there's no reason to gatekeep information.

Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure.

$NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture.

~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations)

Genuine monopoly over https://t.co/3vPQQfyHrE


To me strong yes... $VLN is basically ~$110m ish cash/inventory and $170m MC. And $80M revenue and high gross margins.

Summary: Strongly bullish VLN on cash/inventory vs market cap mismatch; bullish ETOR on cheap valuation and 77% AUM growth despite underperformance.

To me strong yes. I really don't understand what markets have against Israeli stocks like $ETOR, $NBIS, and $VLN because those are my worst performers.

I lost off so much from Etoro but they're half cash and basically 4 forward earnings to EV. Growing AUM 77% Y/Y.

Then $VLN is basically ~$110m ish cash/inventory and $170m MC. And $80M revenue and high gross margins.

So personally not quite sure what's going on.

@aleabitoreddit @Swiftrooney_ Is $VLN still a good long?


I lost off so much from Etoro but they're half cash and basically 4 forward earnings to EV. Growing AUM 77% Y/Y.


Summary: Cautious long on DPRO as a speculative drone-revenue bet; emphasizes position sizing given high risk and low revenue.

@Aldo_Aurelius $DPRO is incredibly risky given low revenue. So position sizing is important if you decide yourself you want to take positions.

It’s definitely not for everyone as a speculative bet on drone revenue recognition from capacity

@aleabitoreddit I got into a very small position here too. https://t.co/GP5z3ZXo5k


Summary: Long CPSH as a US AlSiC pure-play chokepoint for AI thermal management as GPU TDPs scale to 2000W+ in 2027-2028, backed by DoD contracts and healthy balance sheet.

I've initiated positions in $CPSH as a US AlSiC pure play chokepoint.

They represent ~25% of the near-term semi-grade AlSiC market.

Their customers:

- U.S. Navy (War)
- U.S. Army (War)
- U.S. Dept. of Energy (Energy / Nuclear)
- U.S. Space Force / NASA (Space)
- Lockheed Martin ( $LMT )
- Raytheon ( $RTX )
- Northrop Grumman
- General Dynamics

- The U.S. Navy uses $CPSH for ballistic protection systems of the newest carriers (like the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln). As well as other fleets like the Danish Navy through Lockheed.

- US Army uses $CPSH for 40mm Tungsten Warheads and UH-60 Black Hawk Helicopters.

- The US Dpt of Energy uses $CPSH for impact limiters when transferring nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste via rail.

- U.S. Space Force / NASA uses $CPSH for GPS satellites and it sits in many electronic systems in the International Space Station. (Also not including Mars Rover missions)

- Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, and General Dynamics uses $CPSH for missile heat-shielding components. AlSiC housings for radar systems, and thermal management materials.

AlSiC or (aluminum silicon carbide) is a well known material composite that handles extreme thermal conditions for many applications above from space to defense.

But as architectures from $NVDA Rubin to scale up to 2300-2500W in 2027-2028, that same material may be used AI due to heat warpage.

My thoughts were that the tiny TAM material used to handle extreme changes in heat from hypersonic missiles to rocket nose cones may likely be used for AI deployments.

This is similar to how InP (niche TAM for Telecom) became a bottleneck as photonics scaled up. Or how Toto's fine ceramics for toilets were critical to memory.

AlSiC (esp. post-processing) may become a potential chokepoint as AI ramps up to Rubin generation chips.

Majority of the world's AlSiC production still originates in East Asia (Denka,Sumitomo, BYD, JFC).

But CPS is currently the primary "US/Western hedge" and CPSH states they represent roughly 25% of the near-term available AlSiC market (CPS Technologies AGM Presentation).

And that percentage of the supply chain is only worth ~$100 MC right now.

Their balance sheet:

$12.7M – $13.8M (pro-forma) cash. Almost 0 debt. Inventory ~5.4M, Liabilities: ~$5.06M (eg. $3.53M for aluminum and silicon carbide)

Y/Y revenue is 8.8M, up +107.29%.
Y/Y Net income is up 207.96K (+119.94%).

Healthy balance sheet and US Government strategic interest + Defense Contractors gives $CPSH low downside risk at $100M or even at $200M as the leading Western AlSiC supply chain.

There were new contracts eg. $15.5M order from the leading Semi likely ~Infineon last October, that more visibility into revenue upside. And they are expanding production (funded by their Oct 25th raise), which hints to higher demand.

"We believe we are the world leader in the design and manufacture of AlSiC... Many of our products are designed specifically for a single customer application, making us the sole-source provider for those components." (10-K filings)

TLDR: The AI upside depends entirely on a material pivot by big tech. Similar to the Toto toilet maker for memory type but the AI fit seems strong.

But the benefit is that its existing list of US DoD contractors gives the company lower downside risk.

This is just my own personal thesis I wanted to share.

But personally I've taken positions in $CPSH as an AlSiC play (and long US supply chains) as it may play an important role with thermal warpage with AI in 2027-2028 as we expand to 2000W+.

Thermal is a likely issue for 2027-2028 GPUs:

As thermal targets escalate toward the 2000-3000W+ range, copper and aluminum becomes insufficient.

But, AlSiC, a metal matrix composite, may become important.

Here's why:

Rubin VR200 GPU pointed toward 1800W TDP, AMD Instinct https://t.co/etJFaoUnS5


Summary: Bullish VPG: market misreading results; humanoid/robotics segment beating projections and ramping rapidly is the key forward driver.

$VPG reported earnings. TLDR:

Revenue: $80.6 Million vs. Consensus: ~$78.1 Million (BEAT)

Adjusted EPS: $0.07 vs. Consensus: ~$0.20 - $0.21 (MISS)

Gross Margin: Fell to 36.8% (down from 38.2% a year ago) - mainly one off like FX.

What to look out for:

Humanoid section - Their goal for the full year 2025 was to book $30 million in orders from "Strategic Growth Initiatives" (Robots, Advanced Sensors).

Actual: $37.8 million - They crushed this projection by nearly $8 million.

There’s a lot of noise from other products, main thing markets should be looking out for is humanoid growth, which looks to be ramping up.

Of course that $37.8M number is multifaceted.

Nothing too amazing but tldr:

Legacy Business (Steel, weighing, etc.): Is growing on average

New Business (humanoids): Is growing rapidly

Markets are taking this the wrong way since the most bullish segment going forward for $VPG is humanoids, and it looks to be ramping up.

That aside, not exactly a blowout but positive for strong robotics segment beat, will wait for conference call for humanoids related questions.


Summary: IQE is a speculative long: supply-chain importance to transceivers/hyperscalers may outweigh weak balance sheet; also flagged as high-volatility like AXTI.

$IQE は時価総額1億5,000万ドルの注目銘柄で,  $LITE （ルメンタム）や  GOOGL（グーグル）との繋がりを見つけました！ただ、バランスシートはかなりボロボロで実質有利子負債（ネットデット）の状態です。とはいえ、トランシーバーやハイパースケーラーのサプライチェーンにおける重要性が、財務状況の悪さを上回るかどうかの「一か八かの賭け」といったところですね。

それはそうと、この銘柄も $AXTI と同じくらいボラティリティ（価格変動）が激しくなりそうです！

🌟フォトニクス銘柄
サプライチェーンマップ

■ 光トランシーバー
　（BOMの中で最も高価）

Lumentum / Cloud Light 系列：

Vital / $AXTI
→ $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX
→ $IQE（エピウェハ）
→ $LITE / Cloud Light
→ $FN（契約製造）
→ $GOOGL TPU

■ マーチャント光学サプライチェーン

Vital https://t.co/SJYIJtkO5v


Summary: AI trade set to accelerate long-term; NVDA beat confirms trend, TSM and SNDK among beneficiaries of hyperscaler capex and ASIC buildout.

$NVDA blows away expectations, with $78B in revenue projected vs. $72B.

The stock dropped 4.82% on the earnings.

Controversial opinion but Nvidia earnings is a partially lagging indicator to me.

The #1 thing to look out for is hyperscaler capex projections and $TSM projections.

Markets like $SNDK in memory, semis from $TSM, power/grid and others are likely to rise/fall based on those two in specific as they represent the entire AI sector as a whole.

Especially as hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN rush out to build their on ASICs (apart from Nvidia)

Nvidia beating by a wide margin is just realized confirmation that the AI trade is likely to accelerate.

Short term liquidity and MM positioning affect weekly prices, but long term, things look to accelerate even further.


The #1 thing to look out for is hyperscaler capex projections and $TSM projections


Markets like $SNDK in memory, semis from $TSM, power/grid and others are likely to rise/fall based on those two


Summary: Sees HIMS at $22 as attractive entry; bear thesis flipped, still down 44%+ with squeeze potential.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Yeah even after this $HIMS is still down way over 44%+. Markets were pricing in a lawsuit + revenue loss but this news just flipped everything on its head.

Might be a good long again depending on how the news unfolds. But $22 looks like a pretty attractive entry point given they were trading in the $50s-$60s before all the drama began

@aleabitoreddit 100%. The market priced $HIMS like the GLP-1 revenue was going to absolute zero. Now they have the $NVO branded supply and the bear thesis is entirely dead.

Short interest hovering right around 40% of the float (by Fintel). That is massive kindling for a squeeze given the stock


incredibly defensible that $AXTI owns both supply chains for upstream materials as well as substrate productions... $AXTI capacity expansion should be fully absorbed

Summary: Bullish AXTI as defensible owner of both InP supply chains; capacity expansion fully absorbed by AI networking demand; secondary leans on COHR scaling and MRVL/Inphi exposure.

If the moonshot (which is massive price hikes on InP like HBM) fails, then $AXTI increases revenue from  capacity expansion from Northland's $100m raise and it becomes re-rated anyway.

There's two separate bottlenecks, one is all the precursors and feedstock (which $AXTI / Vital owns, ~80% or so comes from China it's a physics problem).

Then there's substrates, which as you know $AXTI, Sumitomo are leading. $JX, Vital ?, and $COHR are probably scaling.

So its incredibly defensible that $AXTI owns both supply chains for upstream materials as well as substrate productions.

InP will still be needed with companies like $POET, it just reduces usage by a considerable amount (and it's used for many other applications like lidar/drones, etc).

So aside from $POET, $ALMU maybe BTO as a material, don't think there's public companies with direct exposure yet. HyperLight for TFLN. Then $MRVL Inphi, and OpenLight (private). I'm sure $COHR, and all the others are working on a workaround too (none of them prob until 2028).

But even with I say workarounds they still use inp in some manner, just less, and the amount of inp/module for rubin and networking is just massive so $AXTI capacity expansion should be fully absorbed.

@aleabitoreddit I can recall that I really enjoyed your post on the InP shortage. https://t.co/m8QB2dqHQA (thanks to @jukan05)

To address that issue, it seems like they would need technologies like interposers or solutions like Aeluma.

If the 'moonshot' fails (the bust scenario), do you see


Summary: Bearish V, MA, PYPL on AI-agent micropayment disruption via USDC; bullish CRCL and COIN as the disruptors.

I’m surprised markets aren’t pricing in long term disruption of card networks + interchange like $V and $MA.

By $CRCL and $COIN.

From Global Markets Head at Circle:

"Over the past nine months, AI agents completed 140 million payments with a total transaction volume of 43 million US dollars.

Among these, 98.6% were settled in USDC, with an average transaction amount of only 0.31 US dollars."

Card networks and % fee payment processors like $PYPL are likely going to be cooked?


I'm surprised markets aren't pricing in long term disruption of card networks + interchange like $V and $MA. By $CRCL and $COIN.


industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'


not if you're an existing shareholder. Doesn't look like their economics cover enough of their capex

Summary: Bearish IREN on endless ATM dilution and capex not covered by economics; prefers NBIS management/economics.

3 days later $IREN is having another $6B ATM, selling almost half their marketcap on the open market.

Monetizing 3-4GW capacity sounds good, but not if you’re an existing shareholder.

Doesn’t look like their economics cover enough of their capex in the way $NBIS does.

My bull case, alongside everyone else’s last year: was for $IREN to do colo and fund GPU related expansion with FCF.

This materially changed and added execution uncertainty + endless dilution on top.

@otium33 Not a fan of $IREN as a long unless they stop doing GPU offerings and pivot to do pure colo. investors now will be met with endless dilution to monetize their 3GW capacity.

That being said it does carry higher potential returns but I personally trust in $NBIS management more.


I personally trust in $NBIS management more


Summary: Long Soitec on substrate-level monopoly in silicon photonics and CPO; still significant upside despite 45%+ run.

Soitec ( $SOI / $SLOIF ) is now up 45.58%.

This has a long way to go given their substrate-level monopoly over the silicon photonics and CPO architectures. https://t.co/P1hDh8UL9q


Summary: Long AAOI as a heavy buyer on asymmetric upside; long IQE on photonics capacity/restructuring potential for a massive re-rating.

$IQE is inherently dangerous because of debt. I'm just saying they're sitting on a gold mine of capacity as a known $LITE supplier and large contributor to the hyperscaler photonics supply chain.

If they do manage to restructure by selling off their Taiwan business wouldn't be surprised if it got re-rated  like 1000%. Depends on your risk appetite.

$AAOI is pure asymmetrical upside at these levels, and I'm a heavy buyer.

@aleabitoreddit Do you suggest to have small shares in each or have a majority of $AAOI and $IQE as i expect to do. And maximalise risk but also growth


$AAOI is pure asymmetrical upside at these levels, and I'm a heavy buyer


Summary: Long CRCL for the long run; found it highly attractive at $54, views USDC as a durable money printer.

$CRCL is not put in the software bucket. You can't vibe code US based stablecoins because it's highly regulated.

The selloff was mainly do to broader digital asset sentiment, clarity act interest rate (proxies to exchanges like $COIN where ppl keep USDC deposits), and potential rate cuts.

I just found circulating supply was the same above ~$70B despite the stock selling off 50%+ and found $CRCL at $54 to be highly attractive.

That being said I am long Circle for the long run because I do think USDC is a money printer.

@aleabitoreddit Bullish long therme $CRCL ??


Summary: Bullish HIMS on global healthcare retail network built via acquisitions (Zava, Livewell, Eucalyptus) with no regulatory hurdles; monetization potential ahead.

정말 훌륭한 분석입니다! 제가 나서서 $HIMS 를 옹호하게 될 줄은 개인적으로 꿈에도 몰랐지만, 그들은 실제로 다음 기업들을 인수하는 데 성공했습니다:

Zava (유럽/영국)

Livewell (캐나다)

Eucalyptus (호주/일본)

그리고 세계 최대 규모의 헬스케어 리테일 고객 네트워크(retail capture)를 구축해 냈습니다. 이 모든 것을 FTC나 규제 당국의 제재 없이 해냈죠. 이런 잠재력을 보면 과거 $META 가 WhatsApp과 기타 플랫폼들을 인수했던 때가 확실히 떠오릅니다. 여기에 $HOOD 가 새로운 기능들을 교차 판매(cross-selling)했던 전략이 결합된 모습입니다.

결국, 이 거대한 유통 네트워크를 어떻게 수익화할지 그 방법을 찾아내는 것은 전적으로 경영진의 실행력에 달려 있습니다.

$HIMS 불케이스와 잠재 수익화 가능성ㅣ260310

1. $HIMS 의 핵심 해자는 단순히 특정 의약품 판매 역량이 아니라, 소비자 헬스케어 영역에서의 리테일 네트워크 장악력임. 미국 내 약 2.5억 명 규모의 기존 사용자 기반에 더해, 2025년 ZAVA 인수(유럽: 영국·독일·프랑스·아일랜드, 활성 고객 130만 https://t.co/CW9OdZQm5x


Summary: Bullish MRVL as a long into 2027, contingent on MSFT Maia ramp timing.

@Stefan_Tee8 $MRVL is heavily dependent on $MSFT maia ramp and i'd probably use the latter as a large indicator.

But I see it being an amazing long for 2027, just need to time it properly.

@aleabitoreddit Your take on $mrvl and upcoming earnings? Stock seems lagging compared to peers


$RDDT have been sold off 40%+ along with other software names and haven't recovered yet. So maybe it's a good idea to take a look at those

Summary: Buying RDDT as an AI-disruption-fear overreaction; sold off 40%+ with no real fundamental impact.

@NabQ321 I’ve been a net buyer in the “AI disrupted X company but in reality it has no effect” bucket.

Things like $RDDT have been sold off 40%+ along with other software names and haven’t recovered yet.

So maybe it’s a good idea to take a look at those.

@aleabitoreddit New follower here, I've gone through your last few post and it seems like most of the stocks have already run, what would you buy at these levels? Thanks


The US government managed to wipe out leadership in a single day each because of $PLTR and Anthropic Claude black box AI LLMs

Summary: Bullish PLTR on US government reliance for AI-enabled geopolitical operations; AI is not a bubble.

Not sure how anyone can think Ai is bubble?

The US government managed to wipe out:

- Venezulea
- Iran

leadership in a single day each because of $PLTR and Anthropic Claude black box AI LLMs.

Better yet, the US government looks completely reliant on Anthropic.

This seems like a once in a lifetime chance to escape the permanent underclass by profiting off the AI buildout and geopolitical arms race.


$AXTI のようなフォトニクス（光技術）銘柄が、短期的なサイクルで終わるとは思っていません。今後数年間で、AIをスケールさせるための新しいアーキテクチャになるはずです！これらの企業はすべてまだ本当に初期段階にあると思うので、私自身はホールド（継続保有）するつもりです。

Summary: Holding AXTI long-term; photonics will be a multi-year AI scaling architecture, not a short cycle.

🙇$AXTI のようなフォトニクス（光技術）銘柄が、短期的なサイクルで終わるとは思っていません。今後数年間で、AIをスケールさせるための新しいアーキテクチャになるはずです！

これらの企業はすべてまだ本当に初期段階にあると思うので、私自身はホールド（継続保有）するつもりです。他の方が利確（利益確定）するのはご自由にどうぞ！

@aleabitoreddit エグいリターン🔥👏
$AXTI や $AAOI のような小型株も部分利確もせずにガチホなんですね❗


Summary: Long HIMS on improving fundamentals, NVO partnership, META-like acquisitions, and HOOD-like cross-selling; shorts look trapped with record 41.6% short interest.

I try to talk about $HIMS from a fundamental standpoint.

But this cannot be understated:

$HIMS directional shorts look trapped.

The stock price is now up 64.15% to $26.5 (still down from highs of $70s).

While short interest increased to record highs of 41.6%.

There may be a violent feedback loop as short positions go more underwater.

However; this is contingent on the underlying stock going up from buying pressure and increasing fundamentals.

In order for their positions get liquidated.

Otherwise, if prices stagnates, they can leave their short sales in for extended periods of time (low borrow rate) and slowly buy to cover.

That being said, I'm personally along for the ride and looking forward to seeing what $HIMS can deliver:

Both from their recent $META-like global acquisitions spree + $HOOD-like cross selling latent revenue opportunities.

With $HIMS rapidly improving fundamentals, from the surprise $NVO partnership:

I personally see a real opportunity for $HIMS to make history.


Summary: Expects the selloff in SK Hynix and Samsung to be bought back; current dip not a structural crash.

Yep, there's quite a bit selloff, but I do expect it to get bought back in due time.

However I see the main reason for an actual crash would be:

> Structural memory demand decreasing
> Hyperscalers projecting less capex.

Not increased opex costs that end up getting passed onto hyperscalers.

@aleabitoreddit Looks like SK Hynix is down 17% at the moment and Samsung almost 12%.


Summary: Long SIVE as CW DFB laser play on CPO/SiPh cycle; still bullish LITE on Google TPU ramp; POET and MRVL cited as upstream beneficiaries.

$SIVE is now up +73.78% today ($231M MC).

As markets price in information synthesis of the next potential $LITE of photonics.

If I had to explain the difference:

One laser source in Lumentum primarily benefits from current optical bottlenecks.

The other in $SIVE is for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonic bottleneck.

Lumentum is largely benefiting right now from $NVDA and hyperscalers securing capacity of EML lasers for current pluggable optical transceivers cycles.

As seen with the current EML bottleneck, hyperscalers are buying out any 800G/1.6T transceiver + upstream capacity from:

- $AAOI (in-house)
- $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers + design) -> $FN (assembly)
- $COHR, $LITE (EML lasers) -> Innolight / Eoptolink

What's next?

Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics.

The architectural shift to CPO requires massive arrays of high-power CW DFB lasers.

And this would likely trigger a complete, sudden paradigm shift in volume demand.

$SIVE benefits from InP CW DFB lasers for SiPh and CPO:

The up and coming companies like:

$AYAR, $POET source $SIVE lasers, but primarily do advanced packaging.

Then they feed up to larger companies like $MRVL Celestial (that buy $POET's interposers).

However, if you go upstream, the light source is $SIVE.

CW DFB lasers are light engine ( $SIVE ); the silicon photonics package ( $POET and others) is how it gets transmitted.

CPO scale is not there yet. But we know it's coming.

And as seen with current optical transceiver cycles:

- Light sources from $LITE and $COHR demand much higher valuations than companies like $FN that focus on advanced packaging.

Markets have been focusing on $POET, but missed where they get the actual $LITE type light source for Starlight.

The risks are present including facing multi-source competition with $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others. So again, make sure to do your own research.

But my argument against that:

Sivers been early enough to tailor custom lasers to fit $POET, Ayar, and other specifications before they got popular (sort like the $POET to $MRVL Celestial analogy).

There's volume risks as well:

But the potential Win Semi qualification offsets that.

Dilution risk to scale capacity, is always present with every early-stage company as well.

I did my thesis on $LITE last year and still love the stock for Google TPU ramp/OCS.

But this year, I'm focusing on:

$SIVE, as my personal CW DFB laser exposure for the new photonics architectural shift.

I’m sharing my own thoughts on capturing the rotation from the current EML cycle to the upcoming CW DFB/Silicon Photonics cycle.

I’m long $SIVE at $140M.

I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed.

$SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers.

Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck.

But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers https://t.co/VQBOVa86Uj


Markets have been focusing on $POET, but missed where they get the actual $LITE type light source for Starlight

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ


Then they feed up to larger companies like $MRVL Celestial (that buy $POET's interposers)


Summary: Buyer of AAOI at ~$7B MC; holding AXTI existing positions but not adding near-term on timing, bullish long run.

I'd be a buyer at $AAOI here at a ~$7B MC.

$AXTI $3.2B is a tad more elevated now, given there wasn't any major spike of 7N indium nonstandard on SMM. I'm holding existing positions, but probably not adding here just for timing-purposes.

In the long run, doesn't really matter much.

@aleabitoreddit Are you a buyer of $AAOI and $AXTI at current levels given your projected time horizon of the supercycle?


I'm holding existing positions, but probably not adding here just for timing-purposes. In the long run, doesn't really matter much


$RMBS is a sleeper pick. Samsung went out and said 'availability of Rambus HBM4 IP solutions will be critical'. They're just profiting off Samsung, Sk Hynix, and $MU off during memory cycle with 81%+ gross profit margins... it should just print.

Summary: Long RMBS as a sleeper play profiting from HBM4 IP licensing across Samsung/Hynix/MU with 81%+ gross margins.

Yeah, $RMBS is a sleeper pick. Samsung went out and said "availability of Rambus HBM4 IP solutions will be critical".

They're just profiting off Samsung, Sk Hynix, and $MU off during memory cycle with 81%+ gross profit margins.

They don't quite get the same pricing power like the big three do but it should just print.


Summary: Public photonic/fintech names (LITE, AAOI, HOOD, COIN) are fundamentally sound vs overvalued private peers; insider selling at record revenue is not a red flag.

Insider selling on photonic names from $LITE to $AAOI while companies generate record revenue/profit is materially different.

Private companies hike valuations by 2x (eg. $91B -> $159B to retail) while public companies from $HOOD to $COIN are crashing.

If these companies traded publicly, most would all likely tank from their inflated valuations, while public companies are fundamentally sound.

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on the AAOI insider selling?


public companies from $HOOD to $COIN are crashing


Summary: Long photonics sector for next few years as AI architectural paradigm; COHR and LITE direct beneficiaries of NVDA's $4B investment; CPO ramp in 2028.

Photonics sector basket of optical component names

Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI. Go long for next few years.

$NVDA basically just invested $4B the other day to help $COHR and $LITE scale up and things like cpo are expected to ramp in 2028.

This is why all the photonics stocks are going up 10% a day because institutions are frontrunning and repositioning.

@aleabitoreddit what is your take on all the photonics stocks and your exit position fundamental reason, or all these are a strong  hold to 2027


$NVDA basically just invested $4B the other day to help $COHR and $LITE scale up


$NVDA basically just invested $4B the other day to help $COHR and $LITE scale up and things like cpo are expected to ramp in 2028


Summary: VLN looks deeply discounted on asset/liability fundamentals vs market cap; implied long.

@JohnPenisini Yep I went through it. Looks deeply discounted.

Total assets $134m, MC is $154m, $76m guidance off 60% margins, -$29.7m liabilities.

Idk why markets dislike Israeli companies like $ETOR or $VLN

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on $VLN earnings today?


Summary: Short-term silver likely down on CME margin hike mechanics; then expects a wide recovery once forced liquidations complete.

My best guess is likely down due to mechanics of margin hikes. But I hope I'm wrong.

We've seen CME increase margins eg. silver 11% -> 15%-16.5%+ values (taking effect today) and my guess is institutions use this opportunity to wipe out more leverage.

On Friday, markets saw manufactured selloffs on Silver likely due to bullion banks and funds being underwater on shorts.

There's a huge bifurcation in prices between Paper Silver being traded and the physical demand (used for AI + industrial).

But once that sell-off is done and institutions use paper liquidations to net-reposition long, we'll likely see a wide recovery since a lot of what happened regarding broader selloff from the new Fed chair is optics rather than policy change.

Just don't know timeframe.

@aleabitoreddit so up or down for the next 24 hours


once that sell-off is done and institutions use paper liquidations to net-reposition long, we'll likely see a wide recovery


Summary: Bullish MU (high conviction); US investor access a tailwind for SK Hynix and Samsung (low conviction); notes SK Hynix valuation discount to MU as anomaly.

@daniel_koss Yeah should be a tailwind for SK Hynix and Samsung and opens the doors for a lot of US investors.

I’m very bullish on $MU but it’s a bit strange SK Hynix trades at a lower valuation, even accounting for made in America premiums.

@aleabitoreddit Now imagine US investors can soon buy SKH in a simple way 🥰


should be a tailwind for SK Hynix and Samsung and opens the doors for a lot of US investors


Summary: Bullish VPG as a key Optimus robotic supply chain beneficiary given dedicated factory conversion for production ramp.

FYI: Markets often miss statements in earnings calls like $TSLA and their second order effects (price them in much later)

This is probably one of the biggest news for robotic supply chains of Optimus like $VPG.

Especially that Optimus will ramping up now and that Elon has dedicated factories from Model S and X.

$TSLA

ELON: WE WILL BE STOPPING MODEL S & X PRODUCTION AND CONVERT THOSE FACTORIES FOR OPTIMUS PRODUCTION

woah


Summary: Bullish AXTI: Craig-Hallum Buy/$26 PT + Trump InP exec order validate AXT's critical role in AI buildout.

It's a neutral development.

Craig-Hallum's $AXTI $26 PT "Buy" analyst report and Trump's executive order for InP supply control is just reaffirming the thesis.

Majority of people thought AXT was just a pump/dump $600m penny stock a month ago at $14 since I was one of the only people to mention it.

Follow-up news like this just validates how critical of a role both InP and AXT plays in the AI buildout.


They hold massive, multi-million dollar DLA contracts with the US Gov, so when they need to order millions in king crab or lobster delivered, they're the large beneficiary

Summary: Long SYY, USFD, PFGC as the largest beneficiaries of Pentagon food overspending; Q4 crab/lobster spend should show up in earnings.

The Pentagon purchased $2M worth of Alaskan king crab.

As well as $6.9M worth of lobster tails with taxpayer funds in September

If your first thought like me was:

How do I profit off of government overspending on king crab and lobsters?

Here’s how:

$SYY - They hold massive, multi-million dollar DLA contracts with the US Gov, so when they need to order millions in king crab or lobster delivered, they’re the large beneficiary.

$USFD - The second-largest U.S. broadline distributor. USFD also bids on institutional and government contracts, absorbing the overflow of massive government food budgets for expensive crab and lobsters.

$PFGC - Another massive distributor that competes for institutional government and supply contracts for crab and lobster.

To profit from the Pentagon's taste in seafood and steak, you have to invest in the chokepoints that transport the food.

The three above are the largest beneficiaries and the spend in q4 from lobster and crab should show up in their earnings.


USFD also bids on institutional and government contracts, absorbing the overflow of massive government food budgets for expensive crab and lobsters


Another massive distributor that competes for institutional government and supply contracts for crab and lobster


Summary: Long XLU OTM 2-year LEAPS on AI power demand supercycle + rate cuts; VST and CEG as key ETF holdings riding same thesis.

If I had to turn $100k -> $1M in 1 year.

It would be: $XLU OTM 2 year leaps

2026 is the first time in modern history markets have:

-  falling interest rates
- AI inference + buildout

There's a potential ~40%  for XLU (1000%+ OTM), from mapping.

Here's my macro thesis:

1. Rate Cuts

When the Fed cuts rates without a recession, utility debt becomes cheaper, and institutional rotates low-yielding cash to for utility dividends.

This causes immediate valuation multiple expansion:

1995: The S&P Utilities sector returned +31.3% in 1995 and another +12.1% in 1996 - ~47% cumulative return

2019 Mid-Cycle Cut: Result: XLU generated a +25.9% total return in that single year

Standard soft-landing rate-cut cycle naturally maps to a 25% to 30% baseline return. And we're entering a new rate cut cycle in 2026.

2. The Infrastructure Supercycle Capex

Infra CapEx gives the sector compounding earnings growth. Following the early 2000s, utilities entered a massive CapEx cycle to modernize aging grid infrastructure.

Because they were constantly spending and expanding their guaranteed rate base, XLU returned +23.5% in 2004, +16.3% in 2005, +20.8% in 2006, and +18.4% in 2007.

However this time:

The $800B+ AI buildout of 2026 makes the 2004 grid modernization look like pennies.

So you have Valuation Multiple Expansion (+15% to +20%), from rate cuts from #1.  EPS growth (+18% to +20%) from #2 from capex spend historically. Just from a history lesson.

But 2026 is the most unique moment in history from AI usage.

Just from my own model projections as all former estimates are likely wrong from extreme AI ramp (eg. DOE/LBNL projections):

Hyperscaler CapEx Inflows (Spend) - (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Oracle) into DCs est:

2024: $220 Billion
2025: $350 Billion
2026: $550 Billion
2027: $800 Billion
2028: $1.2 Trillion (Growth: +445% over 4 years)

U.S. Data Center Power Usage:

2024: 190 TWh
2025: 280 TWh
2026: 430 TWh
2027: 650 TWh
2028: 980 TWh (Growth: +415% over 4 years)

% of Total U.S. Electricity Consumed by AI:

2024: 4.5% of the U.S. grid
2025: 6.6%
2026: 8.2-10.2%
2027: 13.4-15.4%
2028: 21.3-23.3%

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Department of Energy seem off by AI usage (they're projecting ~12% by 2028)

Physical Grid Capacity Demand:
2024: 18 GW
2025: 35 GW
2026: 65 GW
2027: 105 GW
2028: 160 GW

Basically you can just see 2026 into 2028 being the inflection point whereas 2024-2025 where slower years on the ramp up.

Then there's the "Desperation Premium" for independent companies.  Because grid capacity is sold out, tech giants are paying massive premiums to utilities to cut the line. eg. PJM Interconnection (Virginia "Data Center Alley"), capacity prices spiked from $28.92 per MW-day in 2024 to an unfathomable $329.17 per MW-day for 2026/2027.

$VST or Constellation are a large weighting in the ETF as independent power producers.

Across the board, you can see the extreme ramp from 2026 (now) into 2028 compared to previous years, alongside extreme capex going into building the infrastructure.

2026 is the first time in modern market history that every single thing is firing at the same time for the boring grid/power sector with AI as the biggest tailwind.

And as Elon quotes it: "Billions of dollars of the most advanced hardware. Sitting dark. Not because the chips won't work. Because there's not enough electricity to run on them".

Again 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly due to AI and MMs have priced in historical IV (extremely flat ~14%-16%) for OTM calls.

We're seeing an explosion in AI inference (beyond previous measurements) as well as training (per OpenAI report today).

So the most boring sector on earth (power/grid), might just be the start of a major rally due to hyperscaler/gov spend into grid improvements -> extreme power consumption from AI inference/training -> rate cuts and others.

This is just my personal thesis, options come with risk and magnifies downside too. These are also my own projections, no certainty if they will exceed or be lower than them.

But basically:

2026 is an absolute historical anomaly.

New bottleneck in the US is power.

There's extreme demand from AI, extreme capex, rate cuts:

$XLU looks like the best trade for exposure.

Time will tell if this is right or not.

Trade Idea: Long OTM $XLU leaps (2 years, Dec 2027/Jan 2028).

This feels like once-a-generation long due to AI.

XLU has concentration in $VST / $CEG power companies.

Two reasons:

1. Paradigm shift due to AI DC electricity usage.

2. Low option IV (~14%) based on historical https://t.co/hgYbuNIRKS


$VST or Constellation are a large weighting in the ETF as independent power producers.


XLU has concentration in $VST / $CEG power companies.


Summary: Long AXTI on InP substrate/feedstock monopoly into photonics/ASIC buildout; triple-digit returns expected in 1-2 months. Also flags LITE as photonic supply-chain beneficiary.

$AXTI is the perfect example of how you find alpha.

Over the past few weeks I’ve shown:

- 7n indium nonstandard on SMM reaching ATHs

- photonic supply chains from litecounting and other analyst projections skyrocketing

- trade conflicts with Japan and China affecting Sumitomo and upstream competitor feedstock

- hyperscaler capex going into asics and semi supply chains like $LITE

- estimated photonic BOM on Google TPUs

- Us administration prioritizing InP supply chains after seizing assets

And found that $AXTI has a major chokehold on both substrate production as well as upstream feedstock.

This is how you find alpha and stock triple digit returns in a month or two.

Not after waiting for earnings and seeing updated $35+ analyst price targets.

This is the period where I sit back and let markets price in the research I’ve done.

Did you listen anon? - $AXTI https://t.co/Pcuu4M3muO


hyperscaler capex going into asics and semi supply chains like $LITE


Summary: Long EWY via DCA for Samsung/SK Hynix exposure into the memory supercycle.

@TalentActivity Yeah DCA $EWY shares seem like a great idea to get exposure to Samsung/Sk Hynix and the memory supercycle.

This post was just discussing 2028 leaps and vega expansion from underpriced volatility, options are not the best way to go for everyone.

@aleabitoreddit Ugh wish I had loaded $KORU a month ago and months ago before that when tariff talks were giving Korea a tough time . At this point it's probably Safe to DCA into $EWY for the foreseeable future.


Summary: US power/grid sector poised to take off now as rate cuts lower debt costs and inference AI runs 24/7 at massive scale.

US power grid sector proxied by GRID ETF

Great question! Answer to that is macro/chips.

2023, 2024 when AI first started taking off, fed was jacking rates up to 5%+. Utilities are often kinda like bond proxies since they carry a lot of debt for infra buildout.

Best play then was $NVDA since silicon/chips were in  shortage. Market didnt really care about grid power back in 2023 because servers weren' connected.

But now there's millions of chips hoarded by mag7 that are finally getting turned on. So while $TSM is still a bottleneck, US power grid is likely one of the biggest ones.

Also we've shifted from training (which was like 10-15% of AI power expectancy) into inference, which just runs 24/7 used by billions of people.

So after rate cuts last year, more this year, and just unprecedented inference expansion, probably now is the time for power/grid to take off.

@aleabitoreddit The AI hype started years ago, why is the market sleeping on this? Wasn'it obvious since a long time?


$AAOI is one of the rare US vertical integration players... benefits a lot from Made in America tailwinds

Summary: Long AAOI as rare US vertical integration play benefiting from Made-in-America tailwinds and hyperscaler ramps.

@yianisz Agreed, $AAOI is one of the rare US vertical integration players.

Obviously with this, main challenge is getting it to scale, but it benefits a lot from Made in America tailwinds -> $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler ramps.

Good framing on InP as a national-security bottleneck, but this is where $AAOI gets misunderstood.

AAOI isn’t a direct shortage beneficiary like $AXTI or epitaxy players it’s a resilience winner. Vertical integration (own laser fabs, multi-geo footprint, rising U.S. production)


Summary: Bullish on Israeli-listed ETOR, VLN, NBIS: all trade near or below sum-of-parts / cash value while still growing; geopolitical discount seen as mispricing.

What do markets have against stocks from Israel?

I’ve lost an incredible amount on some of these.

Both $ETOR and $VLN are close to cash-assets | marketcap.

And with $NBIS their portfolio company Clickhouse is almost worth more than their main company at this point.

Geopolitical risks factored into premiums, none of the valuations make sense.

The market is assigning close to 0 value to their actual business even through they’re all growing with $ETOR in specific (70%+ AUM growth) producing considerable FCF.

Im genuinely surprised, l wonder if it’s a potential trade arbitraging sum of parts to balance sheets.

Or would the selloff continue?

There’s a huge disconnect.


$VLN are close to cash-assets | marketcap


$NBIS their portfolio company Clickhouse is almost worth more than their main company at this point


Summary: Long Nanya, MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory; Nanya highlighted as last legacy DRAM supplier with pricing power.

Nanya Technology listed on TWSE as 2408.TW

Nanyna (TPE: 2408) is one of my longs alongside $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung for memory.

But for a different reason.

You might be thinking if this parabolic trend (+972% 1Y). is going to stop? Probably not.

And it just keeps going up 7% a day.

Here's a simple TLDR why:

The forward P/E is only ~13.62 (likely lower now with price hikes).

With +357.7% Revenue Growth/+804.27% Net Income Growth Y/Y, their profits are astronomical.

Similar to Micron and their 57.56%+ last month, and more than doubling since I first mentioned it:

The stock price literally can't keep up.

While the giants (Samsung, SK Hynix, and $MU) are fighting over the high-end AI market, Nanya specialized in the legacy and specialty DRAM products from PCs, computer electronics, and  industrial. (They are doing advanced chips though with 1b Nodes though).

And the memory companies left a massive void Nanya filled:

Micron - Total Exit from Consumer Lines
SK Hynix - Focusing almost entirely on HBM4 and server-grade DRAM.
Samsung - Reallocating 30–40% of legacy lines to advanced AI memory.
Nanya - Last man standing

Demand stayed steady but legacy DRAM supply suddenly fell off a cliff. And it's still widely used from:

- Consumer PCs and Laptops: Millions of computers built between 2015 and 2023 use DDR4
- Smartphones: Most mid-range and budget smartphones use LPDDR4
- Home Electronics: Smart TVs, gaming consoles (like the older Nintendo Switch or PS4) use these.

Basically, they still need to make these, but Nayna has all the cards.

Buyers are paying a "scarcity premium" for older memory because they can't find it anywhere else and seeing a supply shock in a boring market.

Nanya essentially became the guy selling water in a desert. And they can keep jacking up the price of water.

I'm long on the cat sounding company selling water in the desert.

TLDR of my top foreign stocks:

1. Nitto Boseki - T-Glass (Japan)

2. Unimicron - Substrates/Glass Core (Taiwan)

3. Samsung/SK Hynix - HBM (Korea)

4. Kioxia - NAND w/ $SNDK (Japan)

 5. Nanya Technologies - Memory (Taiwan)

US supply chains like $INTC (foundry), $MU https://t.co/Cx0jaufNNd


Summary: Long memory stocks (SNDK, MU, SK Hynix, Samsung) on Intel CEO's structural supply crunch thesis with no relief until 2028.

Retail on X really need to stop shorting $SNDK.

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan just said at Cisco's AI Summit:

"The reality is that memory is the biggest constraint for AI right now... structural supply crunch with no relief until at least 2028".

Intel CEO talking about $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung bottleneck that there's no relief until ***2 years later*** is probably your biggest long signal.


Intel CEO talking about $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung bottleneck that there's no relief until ***2 years later*** is probably your biggest long signal


Summary: TSLA currently overvalued by conventional metrics; author doesn't own it and sees it as expensive despite long-term optionality.

Not sure. I personally don't own $TSLA, but I can see why others do would given how visionary Elon is.

If he actually delivers on mass production Optimus bodies + XAi brain and manages to replace human labor.

$1.3T will look like pennies. But as of now, I mentioned it looks overvalued by conventional metrics.

@aleabitoreddit I was going to ask you when/if you would be foolish on Tesla? It’s now right down to 380


There's better long opportunities out there

Summary: Bearish IREN: $6B ATM dilution via open-market share sales disadvantages retail holders; better opportunities elsewhere.

The reality is that $IREN will need to sell tjose shares into the open market against retail holders since they couldn’t find other financing methods.

If you‘ve gotten to the point of “just trusting in $IREN management to not sell” after they went out of their way to file a $6 Billion ATM to sell into the open market.

There’s better long opportunities out there.

@aleabitoreddit $6B share issuance is an *option* they have, not immediate dilution!
Trust in management doing what's best for shareholders is FAR more important (and complex) than ATM, no ATM, or whatever.


Summary: Bullish SIVE, MTSI, LITE: all still undervalued given severity of incoming EML/CW bottleneck despite large prior gains.

@Berlinergy Exactly. Lot of things come just a lack of understanding.

If people developed their own conviction around names like $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE if they saw how severe the EML/CW bottleneck is going to be.

Then when you see a 125%+ increase, you would still think it's undervalued.

@aleabitoreddit Jumped on the $SIVE Train only a good week ago and am +50%
People I know would Call it luck
They are afraid as it has Risen much already and fear a hard pullback
Me: conviction through building knowledge, every single day here on X
Thx


Summary: Memory supercycle is here; bullish Samsung, SK Hynix, and MU on Morgan Stanley 2027 profit forecasts.

The Memory Supercycle is here.

New reports from Morgan Stanley est.

- Samsung's net profit ~$163.0B USD
- SK Hynix's ~$120.9B USD.

That would make Samsung the most profitable company in the world, even more than $NVDA and $GOOGL.

Here are the top 10 rankings:

1. Samsung Electronics ~$163.0B (2027)
2. Alphabet $GOOGL $152.44B
3. Apple $APPL $133.05B
4 Microsoft $MSFT $127.65B
5. Sk Hynix $120.9B (2027
6. NVIDIA $NVDA $116.51B
7. Amazon $AMZN $95.22B
8 Meta$META $85.09B
9. Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $81.5B
10. JPMorgan Chase $JPM $72.81B

This is forward 2027 net income compared to TTM net income sourced by from companiesmarketcap. Credit to @jukan05 for the Morgan Stanley report. Excluding National companies like Saudi Aramco in these figures.

The memory supercyle from $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix is here clearly here.


Summary: Strongly bullish XLU; calls it a once-in-a-generation long with more quantitative reasoning forthcoming.

@jCarterinvests Thanks! Considering my sub was $1 for extra shower thoughts space, that tenfold $10 profit doesn’t sound like much lol!

I’ll publish a more quantitative reasoning why I think $XLU is a once a generation long later today.

Before was more of a high level directional reasoning

@aleabitoreddit Subbed to you right when you gave the XLU callout basically. Already up 45% on that. Paid for the sub tenfold lol. Appreciate that and the knowledge you provide behind the callouts! Already have learned a lot


Summary: Conditional short-term long on AAOI: strong buy if it dips again to $80s, capped near $100 by ATM dilution.

Short term, $AAOI is diluting $250m at $100 so probably won’t go too high above that number for awhile.

Cause they’re selling it but the open market at that price. They tapped into their last ATM ASAP.

Mid-Long term doesn’t really matter.

If I put on my day trading glasses, if it drops one more time to the $80s, strong yes imo.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think $AAOI is a good opportunity to buy rn?


$SIVE and $IQE are both possible 10x's for me personally

Summary: Both SIVE and IQE seen as potential 10x opportunities.

@_Livesofourdays Yeah $SIVE and $IQE are both possible 10x’s for me personally.

Excited to see where they head

@aleabitoreddit You are the best, my $SIVE and $IQE are up 20% in a day 😅😅


Summary: Long XLU as a structural directional play on power/grid investment expansion.

@Yannis_ko $XLU is more of a structural delta (directional long) play from power/grid investments and expansion.

$EWY was a call on volatility expansion from mispricing.

@aleabitoreddit Hope Same happens with XLU !


Summary: Bullish on Silicon Photonics supercycle led by NVDA; names Soitec and Sivers as key supply-chain chokepoints about to be priced in.

The Photonics Supercycle is here.

$NVDA is spearheading the next leap into CPO & Silicon Photonics.

And we’re only near the inflection point with chokepoints in the supply chains like Soitec ( $SOI ) or Sivers ( $SIVE ).

“NVIDIA’s update on the Spectrum-X switch with co-packaged optics is an important moment, confirming that silicon photonics is central to next-generation AI infrastructure.”

Despite a long-standing reliance on copper-based interconnects for scale-up systems, the company is now placing photonics at the core of its future platforms, including Vera Rubin Ultra.

This transition is expected to support increasingly complex configurations, such as NVL576 and future architectures like Kyber NVL1152.”

“Nvidia is already in production with Spectrum-X Photonics, which is co-packaged optics (CPO) Ethernet switch.

The company also announced the Quantum-X Photonics InfiniBand switch, which delivers up to 800 Tb per second of scale-out throughput using its proprietary scale-out interconnect”

Although copper is important, it can no longer alone can no longer handle AI-scale demands.

NVLink8 CPO is probably the biggest signal with $NVDA also bringing silicon photonics into its scale-up NVLink interconnect, not just scale-out networking.

CPO for scale-out is shipping now/2026, CPO for NVLink scale-up arrives soon.

The paradigm has shifted, and the bottleneck of AI infrastructure is now officially being solved by light.

It’s only a matter of time before markets find these chokepoints in the supply chains.

Then price them in.

The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet:

$SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers)
$TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry
$NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO
$HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays
$POET https://t.co/PAAld6I3oW


Your upside is capped if you're the liquidity for the new $6B ATM, so it's better to buy back after existing holders get wiped.

Summary: Bearish IREN near-term: $6B ATM will dilute/wipe current holders; advises waiting to buy back after dilution rather than holding now.

There are other financing methods than ATMs if they wanted to raise $6B. They wouldn’t have filed it if they didn’t need to go that route.

An ATM wipes out current shareholder value but in return it’s better for the company (eg. No interest from debt financing)

Your upside is capped if you’re the liquidity for the new $6B ATM, so it’s better to buy back after existing holders get wiped.

@aleabitoreddit Always like hearing your takes.  I sold off my $IREN on Wednesday, specifically due to wanting to think over the $6B ATM and possible dilution.  But I'm thinking this time you might be wrong on IREN for two main reasons:
1) The $6B ATM might be a hyperscaler required condition


Summary: Thematically bullish on drone stocks RCAT and PDYN; OSS interesting on defense/war sector tailwinds.

No problem! There's a lot of drone sector stocks like $RCAT, $PDYN too that should be thematically bullish.

There's just too many stocks to look at and I try not to comment if I didn't do enough research into them yet.

$OSS should be interesting going forward with War sector tailwinds

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for this as always !
Bullish on defense sector but not mentionning $RCAT, bearish on it ?
That's one of my highest conviction with $OSS.


$OSS should be interesting going forward with War sector tailwinds


I think this year is its time to shine, esp. with different index weightings toward independent companies like $VST. I'd expect $XLU IV 14% -> 26-28% if things go as planned.

Summary: Bullish XLU: expects IV to expand 14%→26-28% this year; VST named as a key independent-company weighting beneficiary.

Appreciate it! Thing to note is the IV is one of the lowest out of all the index’s since this hasn’t moved since the 2000’s.

But I think this year is its time to shine, esp. with different index weightings toward independent companies like $VST.

I’d expect $XLU IV 14% -> 26-28% if things go as planned.


different index weightings toward independent companies like $VST


$OSS down -6.1% ... the TACO trade presents great opportunities

Summary: Buying dip across oversold names (OSS, SKYT, LITE) on thesis that Trump de-escalation leads to trade deal and markets at ATH.

These types of selloffs are both risk-management and stems from irrational fear, eg. $OSS down -6.1% $SKYT down -6.3%, so the TACO trade presents great opportunities.

Esp. when healthy companies like $LITE drop another 3.78% overnight after a 6% drop on friday.

I'm going dip hunting -> Trump de-escalates (markets start to recovery) -> Trade deal made, markets ATH.

Of course this might be one day or 4-5 days, who knows.

@aleabitoreddit This is the cleanest buy the dip opportunity ever


$SKYT down -6.3%, so the TACO trade presents great opportunities


healthy companies like $LITE drop another 3.78% overnight after a 6% drop on friday


Trump de-escalates (markets start to recovery) -> Trade deal made, markets ATH


Summary: War historically bullish for US markets; long US equities broadly, defense sector, and oil as geopolitical risk premium rises.

You all do realize War is bullish for markets right anon?

General rule of thumb is:

As long as it’s not in your territory, War is bullish.

There’s the retail on X “panic sell everything from $NVDA to $HOOD it’s over” following US/Israel forcing a regime change in Iran.

But institutions have largely frontran it as seen with the rise of big defense + oil sectors (and selloff of anything high beta) leading up to the actual event.

U.S. stocks generated positive performance one year after an act of aggression in roughly 73% of armed conflicts since WWII.

And it’s likely the US already prepared for any Oil volatility by taking over Venezuela earlier for oil reserves.

Annualized returns during the Korean War (+18.7%), WWII (+16.9%), and the Gulf War (+11.7%) all beat peacetime averages.

After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the S&P 500 index fell more than 7%.

Shortly after, markets rebounded and the S&P was trading at a level higher than before the invasion, even as the price of oil remained elevated above $100 a barrel.

There’s different implications on different sectors with Iran and Oil impacts, but generally markets as a whole go up (short term down).

TLDR: It’s obviously multifaceted and more sectors are impacted than others depending on the conflict.

But rule of thumb is War is bullish, as long as long as it’s not on your own territory.


Summary: Bipartisan CHIPS Act support and national-security status mean Intel will continue to receive government backing regardless of administration.

@traderofstox I think the issue regarding $INTC is bipartisan ensuring American domestic capability like CHIPS act.

Other ways like taking a 10% stake, not so much. Either way support is expected to continue in any administration since Intel is now a national security issue.

@aleabitoreddit Think there is any WH Administration risk? Dems going to keep the party going? 🤔


Summary: Bullish AAOI: stock is deeply undervalued if it hits its targets; execution risk is main concern but $250M ATM dilution is manageable.

D'accord ! Si $AAOI atteint ses objectifs, l'action est extrêmement sous-évaluée. Cela dit, il faudra surveiller comment les marchés intègrent le risque d'exécution, qui reste le principal frein. La dilution liée à l'ATM de 250 millions de dollars n'est pas grand-chose en comparaison.

$AAOI est entrain d’exploser c’est une boîte de photonique qui suscite un engouement massif actuellement

Après avoir pas mal parlé avec Serenity et des acteurs clés du secteur, le narratif semble inarretable

Je dropperai mon article sur la photonique et la chaîne de value


Summary: Long TSEM as the purer photonics play at 1/100th TSM's valuation, with faster re-rating potential.

@zephyr_z9 True, but $TSEM is more pure play to photonics ramp than $TSM, and at 1/100th the valuation.

Arguably leads to faster re-rating potential

While I love Tower (will go long again soon), but the TSMC of photonics is still TSMC

COUPE is extremely strong and unmatched for now


Summary: Bullish on silicon photonics/CPO sector as a multi-year supercycle driven by AI scaling demand.

Silicon photonics basket including foundries and component makers

The Serenity Silicon Photonics / CPO ETF.

YTD Returns of Each Index Stock:

$IQE: +282.5%
$AXTI: +246.6%
Landmark: 167.54%
$AAOI: +157.37%
$SIVE: +113.08%
$SOI: +103.54%
$LITE: +100.27%
$LWLG: +92.35%
$VIAV: +88.71%
$AIXA: +73.92%
$AEHR: +70.4%
$CIEN: +67.67%
$FORM: +60.67%
$FOCI: +60.44%
$CAMT: +49.13%
$GLW: +46.77%
$SMHN: +45.94%
Fujikura: +43.89%
$COHR: +41.81%
$KEYS: +40.48%
$TSEM: +36.42%
$ASX: +29.89%
$MTSI: +28.34%
$NOK: +27.5%
Shin-Etsu: +27.33%
$ONTO: +26.28%
$BESI: +24.71%
$UMC: +18.11%
$INTC: +17.27%
$OXINF: 15.03%
$FN: +12.79%
Eoptolink: +11.82%
$TSM: +6.00%
$HIMX: +5.39%
$SMTC: +4.11%
Sumitomo: +3.67%
$CSCO: +3.25%
Innolight: +.33%
$MRVL: +.16%
$APH: -6.48%
$MXL: -7.62%
$AVGO: -7.99%
$POET: -12.99%
$TEL: -14.93%

This is retrospectively, but as you've known I've been in a lot of the winners for awhile (eg. Top 6/7 like $AXTI or $LITE aside from Landmark).

However, if you were curious if you invested in the photonics trend as a whole at the start of the year.

The equal weighted return?

50.033%

I expect the Photonic Supercycle to last over the next several years, and many of these names to be large beneficaries going forward.

Especially as CPO is used to scale AI deployments.

Photonics is the new architectural paradigm for AI.


Summary: Long ARM at $139 on inference shift + AI CPU upside to $25B revenue; implies NVDA share loss as ARM CPUs cannibalize inference market.

FYI: I went long on $ARM at $139.

Genuinely a compelling long at $143B MC as markets shift more from training -> inference.

Then $ARM AI CPUs cannibalize the market for inference and $NVDA market share.

Especially as LLMs get more lightweight.

The projections to $25B/revenue (5x revenue) are already insane to justify risk-reward.

$ARM expects $15B in annual revenue from the the AGI CPU:

"The company projects that the new chip business will generate over $15 billion in annual revenue" within the next 5 years.

5 times current revenues (~$25B revenue)...

Arm probably deserves to be up more than 5% on https://t.co/nv8Y0JDp3S


$ARM AI CPUs cannibalize the market for inference and $NVDA market share


Summary: Soft bullish lean on SMCI: fundamentals outweigh regulatory overhang if it drops further from here.

This is just my personal view that if $SMCI drops further than here, fundamentals probably outweigh regulatory overhang.

Large part of it was already kinda known from 2024, and priced in over time. Today was just confirmation of it, along with the scale.

That being said, there's clearly better opportunities out there.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you again Serenity, was debating if it was a decent op for buying


$AVAV and Oil like $CVX are hedges for war. If US and Iran end up fighting those two sectors would likely go up

Summary: Holding AVAV and CVX as geopolitical hedges; both likely to rise if US-Iran conflict materializes.

$AVAV and Oil like $CVX are hedges for war. If US and Iran end up fighting (can be anytime as seen with the sudden invasion of Venezulea) those two sectors would likely go up.

If they don’t, then other sectors would likely outperform and defense might underperform.

This is a geopolitical hedge so yes IMO.

@aleabitoreddit Is Avav still a hold for you?


Summary: GPU appreciation (H100 +29%, A100 +23%) is an incredible tailwind for NBIS, CRWV, and IREN whose GPU holdings have risen in value like investments.

@jng500 It's funny how it wasn't even GPU depreciation arguments anymore.

The GPUs $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN are sitting on have actually gone up in price like an investment...

H100s went up 29%+ and A100% went up 23%+ last month.

This is an incredible, incredible tailwind. https://t.co/2udzG1dYVW

@aleabitoreddit So much for Michael Bury’s theory!


The GPUs $NBIS, $CRWV, and $IREN are sitting on have actually gone up in price like an investment... This is an incredible, incredible tailwind.


Summary: Cautiously bullish XLU on AI power demand, hyperscaler capex, and rate-cut tailwinds as a unique inflection moment.

@Ren_aramb Yeah power/grid is extremely boring. Only up 200% since the 1990s so IV is priced extremely low.

I just think AI inference/training ramp alongside hyperscaler capex + rate cuts might just be that unique moment in history with $XLU

I don't know if I'm right or not, we'll see. https://t.co/qhBgCX5bFo

@aleabitoreddit Would have never thought utilities stocks could be this sexy. The IV is looking mighty juicy.


Summary: Most bullish on SK Hynix, Samsung, SNDK, MU, LITE (memory/photonics) and TSM; also likes AXTI upstream for InP precursors.

Here's my TLDR + mapped into investment framework from Semivision bottleneck summary:

HBM:
HBM4 (16Hi) - Samsung, Sk Hynix, $MU
HBF - $SNDK, Kioxia
Base Die - $TSM, Samsung (internal)

CPO/photonics;
Glass Substrate: $GLW, $INTC, Ibiden
Optical: $LITE, $AVGO, $COHR, $MRVL

Power Delivery:
Volatage: $MPWR, $VICR
Thermal: $VRT, $NVT, $MOD
Grid: $ETN, $SBGSY
SiC/GaN: $ON, $IFNNY
Rack: $APH

N2 Volume:
$TSM , $AMD (First mover dc), $QLCM, Mediatek, $NVDA

Advanced Packaging:
Yield: $CAMT, $ONTO, $KLAC
OSATs: $AMKR
$BESIY, Disco

Semivision's summary:
1. "advanced packaging capacity and yield control"
2. "HBM ecosystem coordination"
3. "power delivery innovation (SiC, GaN PMICs, rack-level power architectures)"
4. "CPO/photonics integration capability"
5.  "data center infrastructure as a “hidden limiter” to semiconductor revenue realization"

As you probably know, I'm probably most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above. And $TSM.

I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors, but midstream players are the chokepoint + control most of the pricing.

But just added commentary of related companies to topics to make things simpler for the regular retail investor.


most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung


most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK


most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU


most bullish on memory/photonics like Sk Hynix/Samsung, $SNDK, $MU, $LITE above


I probably go a bit more upstream like $AXTI for InP precursors


Summary: Bearish ARM and QCOM; bullish MediaTek as the better long on ASIC growth with Google.

I'm actually personally pretty bearish on both $ARM and $QLCM.

Probably not the best person to ask on $ARM since I did help out RISC-V quite a bit so I'm a little biased.

As for Qualcomm... Mediatek is probably better long, especially with their high growth ASIC arm working with $GOOGL.

@aleabitoreddit I'm interested to hear your opinion on ARM and QCOM.


Mediatek is probably better long, especially with their high growth ASIC arm working with $GOOGL


Summary: Holds AXTI, LITE, COHR, AAOI as core photonics picks, all trending up despite macro headwinds.

Apparently $IQE does not concern itself with the War in Iran either?

My core photonics segment picks from $AXTI, $LITE, $COHR, and $AAOI have been just vertical green line up every day recently, despite any macro. https://t.co/I4O1zxyY8W

$AAOI does not concern itself with a war in Iran.

The photonics stock with surprise ~900% revenue growth blowout projections to:

$4.53B ARR by mid-2027, off ~40% margins.

Coupled with double digit directional SI stuck.

Might not need to be. https://t.co/qKReNvBMYh


Summary: Long OTM XLU leaps (Dec 2027/Jan 2028) on AI power demand paradigm shift, grid upgrade spending, and rate cuts; implied longs in VST/CEG via XLU concentration.

Trade Idea: Long OTM $XLU leaps (2 years, Dec 2027/Jan 2028).

This feels like once-a-generation long due to AI.

XLU has concentration in $VST / $CEG power companies.

Two reasons:

1. Paradigm shift due to AI DC electricity usage.

2. Low option IV (~14%) based on historical averages (flat since 2000s).

AI power usage is astronomical.

This cannot be understated.

Never before in history have DCs use up this much GWs in power, especially when they require outputs of nuclear reactors for training LLMs.

This forces $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and others to sign multi-year agreements to consume as much power as possible. And yet they still don't have enough.

-> So, trillions would likely be poured into grid upgrades.

Usually interest rates hurt the sector but we're going into more rate cuts, so it makes the sector a much better long.

OpenAI's letter to congress pleaded the US to invest in energy as well to compete vs. China.

So, this feels like a once-a-decade type long due to:

- paradigm shift eating up any available power from AI
- trillions in grid upgrades to compete vs. China
- rate cuts.

And low IV pricing from historical averages.


XLU has concentration in $VST / $CEG power companies.


Summary: Bullish KOSPI, SK Hynix, and Samsung on strong re-rating expected over the next two years; EWY volatility expansion noted.

@Michael_Tran_90 Make that decision yourself! I posted an update on $EWY volatility expansion recently and I do see KOSPI, SK Hynix/Samsung being strongly rerated over the next two years.

@aleabitoreddit Is it too late to join in with you? I know about it a bit too late


SK Hynix/Samsung being strongly rerated over the next two years


$AXTI is probably going to be a major $SNDK like bottleneck, and I'm personally holding

Summary: Holding AXTI as a potential photonics bottleneck play by 2028, analogous to SNDK.

@gahhhbor Better question to ask is.. is photonics going to be a major thing in 2028?

If it is, $AXTI is probably going to be a major $SNDK like bottleneck, and I’m personally holding. https://t.co/AfCc9iLm81

@aleabitoreddit You sell any or still in? Moves like this I never know how to position when we hitting ATHs almost every other day.


Summary: Prefers SK Hynix over MU at current levels; bullish on memory sector broadly with structural demand past 2028.

@HeLiuLeo I ended up preferring SK Hynix over $MU at these levels, but memory as a whole is a good long.

Lot of LNG/helium/crude fears don’t really impact opex much. And demand looks structural past 2028

@aleabitoreddit What do you think of Micron at current level?


memory as a whole is a good long. Lot of LNG/helium/crude fears don't really impact opex much. And demand looks structural past 2028

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung


Summary: Long LPTH long-term as a germanium/defense beneficiary from US supply-chain shift away from China, driven by Anduril, NOC, ONDS demand.

$LPTH is germanium bottleneck mainly for defense. It seems more of a long term beneficiary from transition from China supply chains to US black diamond.

And it’s algorithmically tied to defense sector (which is down recently, from $ONDS to $AVAV due to a lack of catalysts). If US invades Iran the trade is probably going to be hot again.

Not likely going to see that massive short term spike that semi supply chain bottlenecks do from the $GOOGL and $AMZN capex spend. Or bottleneck + price hikes that $AXTI might see from photonics usage.

But long term from Andruil, $NOC, $ONDS and others should be incremental revenue

@aleabitoreddit When will $LPTH pop off bro?


Summary: Buying COIN at current levels near the April tariff bottom of $171, citing prior September 2024 support at $150.

@dexapiko We’re close to the April Tariff bottom at $171 now for $COIN.

Only other time it hit that was September 2024 for $150.

I’m a buyer here https://t.co/IMqRE8nii2

@aleabitoreddit I believe we can see same story like $COIN ,-80-90% from ATH and a lift off


Now it's starting to feel the same with $MU in round 2.

Summary: Bullish MU; draws analogy to NVDA's rise, believes same trajectory is starting now.

@Thomas_james_1 Just reminds me of $NVDA during the rise to $4T+ valuation where everyone kinda knew it would go up.

Now it’s starting to feel the same with $MU in round 2.

@aleabitoreddit Absolutely! I’ve been trying to tell people how undervalued $MU is for months based on current PE & forward PE

Well written


Summary: Bullish AXTI as the apex supplier of InP substrates at the top of the photonics supply chain for TPUs and optical components.

@DhruTech InP substrates and raw materials needed to build them.

Basically if you go to the very very top of the entire photonics supply chains that $GOOGL TPUs or $LITE uses.

There sits $AXTI as the Pokémon champion

@aleabitoreddit $AXTI does what exactly? Also any exit target


$AVAV definitely. It's the gold standard and is already part of replicator.

Summary: Most bullish on AVAV (gold standard), AIRO (best risk/reward), DPRO (speculative early-stage upside), with KTOS also succeeding in replicator program.

$AVAV definitely. It’s the gold standard and is already part of replicator. (So already successful alongside $KTOS)

$AIRO is for counter UAV replicator, highest potential for lowest downside risk.

I’ll do a write up on $DPRO later but it reminds me of early stage $RKLB, very speculative upside.

@aleabitoreddit @bennybigbull Out of those 4 stocks which of those has in your opinion the highest chance of succeeding?


$AIRO is for counter UAV replicator, highest potential for lowest downside risk.


it reminds me of early stage $RKLB, very speculative upside


Summary: Long AXTI as vertically integrated bottleneck for InP substrates/feedstock; thesis: indium price hikes drive re-rating like memory oligopoly amid parabolic photonics capex buildout.

$AXTI - 7N high purity Indium hit over $1K+ USD and has increased parabolically over the last three months.

This is a derivative reflection of price hikes.

There's two nuances:

1. This is local SMM pricing (China controls 70%+ of the supply chain).

Hyperscalers from $GOOGL to META are probably paying large premiums for this (to pass to $LITE or others).

2. This is feedstock to InP substrates.

InP substrates = $AXTI and Sumitomo.
Feedstock = $AXTI and Vital.

Increases in precursor prices hurts the bottom line of Sumitomo -> $LITE / $COHR -> downstream.

But AXT benefits both times as a bottleneck of two different layers, since they are vertically integrated at the feedstock/refinery level.

As seen with $GOOGL's earnings, the buildout for photonics is about to grow parabolically with their $180B+ capex spend. And now.

My thesis with $AXTI is -> price hikes like memory companies (eg. $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix) and get re-rated as the central chokepoint for photonics buildout.

Instead of the big three, you have 2 (AXT/Sumitomo). Possibly 1 in due time, as Japan faces issues with upstream materials from export controls.

There's less visibility over price hikes compared to memory products.

But we can see this potentially reflected in derviatve  like 7N indium on SMM.


As seen with $GOOGL's earnings, the buildout for photonics is about to grow parabolically with their $180B+ capex spend


Summary: Bought POET after 17% offering drop; views $7.25 institutional price as support, though sees company 5-8 months early.

$POET has crashed 17% after a direct offering of $150m in shares at $7.25.

They’re now sitting on a ~$420-$450m war chest with a ~$1.02B MC factoring in 20.6M new shares.

IMO this is a decent opportunity as the institutional offering price was $7.25.

Poet’s optical interposers are a genuine bottleneck fix to InP and they have a hyperscaler backdoor. Especially because they supply Starlight to $MRVL Celestial photonic fabric.

IMO company is 5-8 months a bit early so I’m not personally long.

But I personally ended up buying at this level to take advantage of the drop.


Nebius was my top Neocloud AI Infrastructure DC pick. Glad management is executing toward their $7-9B ARR target.

Summary: Long NBIS as top Neocloud AI infrastructure pick; endorses $7-9B ARR target as management executes on $27B META contract.

Just in: $META signs an enormous $27 Billion cumulative AI spend contract with $NBIS.

Nebius was my top Neocloud AI Infrastruture DC pick.

Glad management is executing toward their $7-9B ARR target.

Nebius is up 14.79% premarket to $129.66. https://t.co/RaaDWm1if0


Summary: Long AXTI: owns entire InP supply chain, sits in two bottlenecks, benefits from feedstock price hikes vs peers.

I think the nuance is that there’s two different bottlenecks. One is feedstock/refinery processing. The other is InP substrates.

Sumitomo/ $COHR sits in one of them but are affected by feedstock pricing like 7n indium nonstandard.

The reason I personally like $AXTI the most is because they sit in two different bottlenecks since they own the entire supply chain and benefit from price hikes. Most of the worlds upstream feedstock come from Vital or are derived from AXT

When discussing photonics, the conversation inevitably shifts to InP (Indium Phosphide) substrates.

While AXT Inc. $AXTI and Sumitomo Electric are the dominant names in this space, one shouldn't overlook Coherent $COHR.

Considering the growing emphasis on reshoring and the


Summary: Long Soitec for years as CPO substrate monopoly; NVDA GTC catalyst also points institutions to AXTI as a missed photonics play.

Turns out markets like hidden photonics monopolies?

Soitec is up 16% intraday.

If you look at the CPO photonics architectural ramp led by $NVDA:

It’s parabolic.

$SOI is likely a name that people can hold for many years as the substrate monopoly for CPO.

And best of yet, there’s the upcoming $NVDA GTC announcement next week.

Which would likely signal to institutions to start looking into players they missed like $AXTI, and now $SOI.


signal to institutions to start looking into players they missed like $AXTI


Summary: Still holding AIRO, LPTH, OSS, SSYS, AXTI, VLN as 1-year thesis positions; cost averaging up on AIRO and LPTH.

@truncateit I actually believe in my thesis so I cost average up on stuff like $AIRO and $LPTH.

But if you're curious yes I still have $OSS, $AIRO, $LPTH, $SSYS, $AXTI, $VLN, and others I do DD on since they're meant to be 1 year holds, not 12 hour ones. https://t.co/uNvk2q5uYe

@aleabitoreddit saying this after you sold


I actually believe in my thesis so I cost average up on stuff like $AIRO and $LPTH


yes I still have $OSS, $AIRO, $LPTH, $SSYS


yes I still have $OSS, $AIRO, $LPTH, $SSYS, $AXTI


yes I still have $OSS, $AIRO, $LPTH, $SSYS, $AXTI, $VLN


Summary: AXT preferred for pure upside as a photonics price-squeeze play; LPTH also long but lower conviction as a longer-term Made-in-America supply chain pivot.

So $AXTI is the next closest thing to NAND/HBM type price squeeze play (for photonics) that I've found.

$LPTH is a germanium bottleneck fix w/black diamond that is more of an long term supply chain pivot to Made in America over time.

Different risk levels and upside but pure upside I'd maintain AXT.

@aleabitoreddit So are bullish on AXT more than LPTH??


$LPTH is a germanium bottleneck fix w/black diamond that is more of an long term supply chain pivot to Made in America over time


I'm still buying it in the 90's because it's cheaper than ever given projections. If you're projecting $4.35B in revenue off a $7.5B MC and you own the entire supply chain... it has a long way to go

Summary: Still buying AAOI in the 90s; cheaper than ever on $4.35B revenue vs $7.5B MC, peers at $40B-$50B doing less revenue — long way to go.

This is the perfect example I like to cite of the "Chart" spotters that don't look at fundamentals for $AAOI.

I was buying it in the 20's, but I'm still buying it in the 90's because it's cheaper than ever given projections.

If you're projecting $4.35B in revenue off a $7.5B MC and you own the entire supply chain from laser fab -> transceiver design -> assembly in America...

Whereas all your other peers are worth $40B-$50B+ doing less revenue than that, then it has a long way to go.

@aleabitoreddit you mean the one that went from $1.9 or let's even say $10 to $111 in a year? lol sounds late


Summary: GOOGL and TSM singled out as names you can hold 4 years with confidence they'll do well.

Agreed, if your name is not $GOOGL or $TSM where you can just sit back 4 years and know it will likely do well.

It’s important to monitor if there’s any material changes.

Especially for extremely high beta hypergrowth names where things from macro, pivots, or excessive dilution can break your thesis or cap upside

@aleabitoreddit Well said.

People on X get mad at you when you change your mind, when that is in fact exactly what you should do all the time if the available data changes.

The reality right now is that we're confronted with a ton of news that impacts fundamentals every week.

I would also


Summary: Bullish SK Hynix, Samsung, EWY, and semis broadly as AI drives generational wealth to compute owners.

It’s just an endless sea of green.

SK Hynix, Samsung (and likely $EWY) are all time highs today.

AI is bringing generational wealth to the future owners of compute (Power, Bottlenecks, and Semis). https://t.co/igFzY9whEB


AI is bringing generational wealth to the future owners of compute (Power, Bottlenecks, and Semis)


$MU looks like a great long! ... $MU is tariff-exempt + gets CHIPS Act subsidies, and doesn't have constant geopolitical threats from Trump every day

Summary: Long MU on tariff exemption + CHIPS Act subsidies vs geopolitical risk; also holds Samsung and SK Hynix as favorites despite tariff headwinds.

$MU looks like a great long! This being said Samsung Electronics and Sk Hynix are still two of my favorite positions.

It looks like the US is essentially using strong tariff threats to force Samsung and SK Hynix to move their next generation of fabs to US soil (as seen with $37B Samsung plant in Texas and SK Hynix’s $3.9B Indiana).

But recent news does look like a TACO situation with tariff headwinds.

Whereas $MU is tariff-exempt + gets CHIPS Act subsidies, and doesn't have constant geopolitical threats from Trump every day.

@aleabitoreddit Although buying all time high is a bit uncomfortable, $MU has been climbing non stop. Buying at any pullback!


Samsung Electronics and Sk Hynix are still two of my favorite positions


Summary: Bearish IREN for now due to $6B dilution cycle; plans to go long only after dilution runs its course.

Yes this is the perfect summary.

People conflate $IREN doing well (which I think it will too as a DC with $MSFT partnership), with their share prices doing well.

Waiting for existing retail/dip buyers to serve as liquidity for the $6 billion dilution cycle finishes before going long is a highly rational.

@aleabitoreddit Correct framing. A lot of people confuse “the company wins” with “my shares win"

With a $6B ATM, $IREN basically told you the cap table is part of the financing plan. Great for building assets, brutal for per share upside if they keep feeding stock into strength.
This can still


Summary: Disclosed new long position in LASR; bought in now despite missing earlier 50%+ run.

@theodore_invest It was up 50%+ or so since i posted last Jan... But I should have taken positions then because I thought laser weapons were super cool.

Ended up pulling the trigger now, better late than never for $LASR.

@aleabitoreddit Your influence getting stronger. Right after posting your purchase it went up 3% LOL


Samsung you have high upside with memory + foundry capturing overflow from TSM. I'm sure they'll all strong outperform 2026.

Summary: Long Samsung, TSM, and INTC; all three foundry plays expected to strongly outperform by 2026 on memory/foundry overflow, growth, and US gov backstop.

I have Samsung, $TSM, and $INTC exposure.

They're like Fire, Water, and Grass starter Pokemon, can't go wrong with any.

- Samsung you have high upside with memory + foundry capturing overflow from TSM.
- $TSM, has insane profitability/growth + everyone uses them and they're maxed out.
- $INTC is basically US gov capping downside risk + large upside to $TSM once they finish buildout.

I'm sure they'll all strong outperform 2026.

@aleabitoreddit More bullish on Intel than on Samsung ? Just want to keep one foundry play and struggling to decide, both seems attractive to me (well many others are but you gotta do what you gotta do!)


$TSM, has insane profitability/growth + everyone uses them and they're maxed out. I'm sure they'll all strong outperform 2026.


$INTC is basically US gov capping downside risk + large upside to $TSM once they finish buildout. I'm sure they'll all strong outperform 2026.


Summary: AAOI will be profitable at scale; bullish forward stance on profitability ramp.

@siflower earnings was a result of their capex cycle from buildout. theyre profitable on the products they sell. $AAOI will most definitely be profitable at scale.

@aleabitoreddit If demand is so high, why they're unprofitable? Higher cost with US production yes, but they couldn't sell at least at cost when sold out?


Summary: Bullish AXTI into 2027-2028 on photonics ramp and China export controls driving memory-style price hikes.

@crypticTooth I’ve shared this graph before but basically 2027-2028 is where the real fun should begin with $AXTI + possible memory-style price hikes.

This is just early DD before the photonics ramp + China export controls should start kicking into gear. https://t.co/DDPxvwQnRh

@aleabitoreddit What’s your price prediction on AXTI 2026?


Wow that's an incredible amount and a lot of upside! I can see that happening if they hit Morgan Stanley's projected EPS in 2027 and memory supercycle continues

Summary: Bullish SK Hynix to $1.4T market cap if MS EPS targets hit and memory supercycle continues through 2027.

@Alisvolatprop12 Wow that’s an incredible amount and a lot of upside!

I can see that happening if they hit Morgan Stanley’s projected EPS in 2027 and memory supercycle continues

@aleabitoreddit SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won mentioned that SK Hynix's market capitalization could reach 2,000 trillion won.

That is $1.4T in US dollars.

https://t.co/jRjvAbBpkn.


This looks like a clear buying opportunity. The drop on Samsung/Sk Hynix looks like a clear buying opportunity as their operational income will likely blow past any short term volatility.

Summary: Clear buying opportunity in Samsung, SK Hynix, and EWY after KOSPI crash; 2026 AI demand cycle fundamentally differs from 2022 downturn — energy cost hikes will be passed to price-insensitive hyperscalers.

Thoughts on the $EWY / KOSPI crash and whether it's a buying opportunity for Samsung/Sk Hynix:

This looks like a clear buying opportunity.

Especially as investors misunderstand that 2026 is not 2022 (Ukraine-Russia) conflicts.

AI has fundamentally changed the demand for memory, compared to the 2022 downturn in consumer electronics, where Samsung/Sk Hynix also footed opex costs.

The main catalyst for one of the largest single-day drops in Korean history was Iran drone striking QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex.

Qatar is roughly ~20% of the global LNG supply.

Results:

-> Dutch TTF (Euro Natural Gas): +46%
-> Asian Spot LNG: + 39%
-> U.S. Natural Gas: +4.16% (fine)

The LNG spike was the catalyst for the drop as South Korea is materially exposed as it relies on imported LNG.

Fearing this inflationary energy shock, investors aggressively dumped South Korean tech equities, combined with deleveraging of 10x Samsung/Sk Hynix.

Sending
-> Samsung Electronics down by 9.79%.
-> SK Hynix shares sank by 11.12%.

and the $EWY (KR futures) down 14.49% today.

Everyone is fearing the 2022 incident with Russia-Ukraine war increasing LNG prices, causing industrial electricity tariffs in South Korea climbed by roughly 70% after KEPCO stopped abosring losses.

In 2022 alone, Samsung's domestic facilities consumed approximately 28,000 GWh of electricity.

The tariff hikes added an estimated KRW 2 trillion (over $1.4 billion USD) to Samsung's annual operating expenses and over KRW 1 trillion for SK Hynix.

This unprecedented spike in operational expenses (OPEX) hit at the exact worst possible time.

In late 2022, the semiconductor industry entered a brutal cyclical downturn. Post-pandemic demand for PCs and smartphones plummeted, leading to a massive oversupply of DRAM and NAND flash.

However, 2026 is completely different:

Compared to 2022 that faced increasing energy costs during a downturn:

AI demand for memory is completely unprecedented. On the 27th, there were reports of DRAM hikes again from Samsung/Sk Hynix.

Demand for NAND prices from $SNDK have been so high for capacity allocation that they've been taking 3 year pre-orders in advance.

There is no end to demand in sight, and no relief way until 2028.

Comparing this to 2022, where consumer segments for laptops and smartphones were already facing a downturn, memory makers could not pass on the costs (and tanked opex bill). That caused a major correction last time.

Because the global AI chip shortage is so acute in 2026, they will seamlessly pass their inflated utility bills down the supply chain.

Because supply is severely constrained, Samsung and SK Hynix dictate the market terms. Big Tech hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) are locked in an AI arms race. They are highly price-insensitive right now and prioritize securing volume over haggling.

As a result, this looks like a clear buying opportunity, especially as projections range from:

Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on Samsung
2026: ~$182.0B USD vs.  ~$210.8B USD
2027: ~$235.1B USD vs.  ~$333.7B USD

Morgan Stanley | Macquarie on SK Hynix:
2026: ~$132.9B USD vs. ~$190.5B USD
2027: ~$167.0B USD vs. ~$312.8B USD

The selloff looks like an immediate de-risking from fears over 2022 Ukraine-Russia-conflicts, combined with extreme leverage from 10x instruments.

But unlike 2022, where laptops and consumer demand were already facing a downturn and LNG spikes caused Samsung/SK Hynix to foot the bill:

This time it's passed onto hyperscaler costs because demand is too high.

People always compare KOSPI to silver, but the difference is one has whopping operational income, where in a bull-case scenario, 2 years of income alone would exceed their market cap of companies like SK Hynix.

The drop on Samsung/Sk Hynix looks like a clear buying opportunity as their operational income will likely blow past any short term volatility.


this looks like a clear buying opportunity


Summary: Long LASR on catalyst: Iron Beam validation expected to drive major contract inflows for laser weapons and hypersonic missile defense applications.

We'll need to see, it's more of a catalyst trade right now.

$LASR just got the biggest validation in their lifetime for the first usage of their Laser Weapons shooting down a bunch of stuff.

My guess is a ton of contracts will likely flow into $LASR now both from expanding Iron Beam (because it worked) and toward other applications like hypersonic missiles.

@aleabitoreddit Are you looking at $LASR as short term trade or more med, longer term? thanks


If the photonics sector is completely sold out for the next two years with no end in sight... There's probably something the markets haven't priced in yet.

Summary: Bullish on photonics/EML laser sector as next AI bottleneck; LITE, AAOI, COHR sold out through 2027 with markets not yet pricing in the shortage + upcoming CPO ramp.

Photonics is the next bottleneck after memory.

If you're not convinced yet?

$LITE CEO went out and said:

"We're sold out really until the end of 2027. We see no end in sight."

This is eerily similar to $INTC CEO saying "No Relief" on Memory Shortage Until 2028.

But instead... Photonics has only started to ramp up as the new architectural paradigm of AI.

The current EML laser + optical transceiver bottleneck cannot be understated.

Hyperscalers are buying any EML capacity or optical transceiver, $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, and downstream providers can make.

The CEO also reiterated: "We are completely sold out." The company [ $LITE ] is "way, way under-shipping" what customers want.

"Lumentum says it is under shipping demand by roughly 25% to 30%, and that all capacity is fully allocated under long-term agreements through calendar 2027"

If the photonics sector is completely sold out for the next two years with no end in sight. Before there's been any price hiking.

And before growth engines like CPO have even started to ramp up.

There's probably something the markets haven't priced in yet.


Hyperscalers are buying any EML capacity or optical transceiver, $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, and downstream providers can make.


Photonics is the next bottleneck after memory... There's probably something the markets haven't priced in yet.


Innolight and Eoptolink i think they're top tier longs for photonics segment

Summary: Innolight and Eoptolink are top-tier longs in photonics/transceiver boom; author prefers AXTI (monopoly) and AAOI as Western alternatives with market premium.

Zhongji Innolight listed on Shenzhen as 300308.SZ

Thanks! I love interacting with the Chinese community.

As for Innolight and Eoptolink i think they’re top tier longs for photonics segment. Especially with the transceiver boom now. But if they’re not monopolies like $AXTI, I personally just prefer to invest in Western supply chain alternatives like $AAOI instead.

The market usually assigns a premium to “Made in America” stocks, even if they don’t have as much revenue/profitability.

@aleabitoreddit I’m a big fan of yours from China. I’m currently trading Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink, and I believe both stocks are still undervalued. I’d really appreciate it if you could share your views on these two companies.


Eoptolink Technology listed on Shenzhen as 300502.SZ


I personally just prefer to invest in Western supply chain alternatives like $AAOI instead


Summary: Bullish HIMS: global DTC distribution network from 3 acquisitions unlocks latent revenue streams, similar to HOOD's scaling of financial retail.

Yes there's a lot of bear/bull case discussion around individual products $HIMS sells.

I think analysts/markets are approaching it wrong:

$HIMS main valuation I see is derived from their unique global retail DTC distribution network that they now have with their 3 recent acquisitions.

This unlocks a lot of latent revenue stream + monetization, like what $HOOD did for the financial industry to scale.


Summary: Play current pluggable bottleneck via AAOI; front-run CPO cycle rotation into SOI, SIVE, AEHR ahead of institutional capital.

The upcoming CPO / Silicon Photonics Bottleneck Cheat Sheet:

$SIVE, Sumitomo, $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, $MTSI, $AAOI - Light Source (CW DFB Lasers)
$TSEM, $GFS, $UMC, $TSM, $INTC - SiPh foundry
$NOK, $CIEN, $CSCO, $COHR - DCO
$HIMX, FOCI (3363.TWO) - Micro-lens + Fiber Arrays
$POET - Optical Interposers
$SOI, $AXTI, Shin-Etsu  - Substrates
$FN, $ASX, Innolight, Eoptolink -  Optical Packaging and Assembly
$MTSI, $SMTC, $MRVL, $MXL - Analog/Mixed-Signal ICs
$LWLG - Speculative Modulator Materials.
$GLW, $APH, $TEL, $FIT, Fujikura - Connectors and Fibers
$FORM, $KEYS, $VIAV, $AEHR- Test & Measurement
$BESI, $SMHN, $ONTO, $CAMT - Advanced Packaging & Hybrid Bonding

Many are private companies from Lightmatter, Ayar, Ranovus and others.

Now... Everyone is asking... How do you profit?

If you look at the forecast for CPO TAM, it's a straight line up, and next year is inflection point for CPO mass deployment.

The alpha is capturing the rotation:

From the current EML bottlenecks ( $LITE, $COHR type) to SiPh / CW DFB architectural winners for CPO.

Highest upside potential are the ones that aren't included in current cycles.

But that are in the next.

Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples.

Ride the current pluggable bottleneck like $AAOI.

But the alpha is frontrunning institutions with the next CPO bottleneck.

The capital rotation is inevitable.


Companies like $SOI, $SIVE, or $AEHR are perfect examples


Summary: Expects RDDT to consolidate around $120-150 then rally to $200+ on capitulation.

@jpainefrommaine Yeah basically. I would not be surprised if $RDDT just sat around $120-$150 for another month, then when everyone capitulates it randomly goes to $200+

@aleabitoreddit “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” 🤣 I’m riding it down too.