Even after a 16% increase, the forward 2027 p/e is still single digits. That's how profitable the memory supercycle is

Summary: Bullish memory sector: AI demand + price hikes seen as new structural norm driving supercycle profitability across SNDK, MU, Hynix, and Samsung.

$SNDK - Even after a 16% increase, the forward 2027 p/e is still single digits.

That’s how profitable the memory supercycle is with $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, and others

The AI demand + price hikes looks like the new structural norm. https://t.co/6RG14zqEpr

Memory Company Overview (February 2nd).

Forward P/E Estimates for 2026/2027:

Micron ( $MU ) +31.5% YTD:
~10.4x (2026)

Sandisk ( $SNDK ) | +109.36% YTD:
~14.6x (2026)
~6.3x (2027)

Samsung Electronics | + 17.04% YTD:
~5.1x (2026)
~4.3x (2027)

SK Hynix | +22.6% YTD:
~4.3x https://t.co/AkOMpfj8Zr


That's how profitable the memory supercycle is with $MU, SK Hynix, Samsung, and others

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


Samsung Electronics listed on KOSPI as 005930.KS


Summary: Neoclouds IREN, NBIS, and CRWV named as the key beneficiaries of GPU supply tightness driven by hyperscaler capex and new AI model demand.

According to 3Fourteen Research: GPU availability across major cloud services have dropped immensely in Feb.

This comes as $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL have increased infrastructure capex spend immensely.

The major victors, Neoclouds:

$IREN, $NBIS, and $CRWV are the three with AI cloud offerings.

There's likely been a new wave of demand shock with new AI models coming out from Opus 4.6 and others.

And the demand increase is across the board with newer gens like B200, and older models.

This is the cumulative effect of capacity constraints, now visualized.


industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: Bought NBIS on pullback to $80, added SOL at $100 and ETH at $2200 as swing trades; finds these names attractive in the dip.

I personally ended up buying $NBIS on the drop to $80 ON. They’re part of the AI buildout theme, but a tad more risky give profitability so far, so still a fan. Short term there’s the ATM though which does impact the price a bit.

I ended up adding $SOL at $100 and $ETH at $2200 too ON for swing trades as well.

That being said likely more volatility ahead given drop, so margin on high beta is dangerous.

But some of these names look attractive in the pullback.

@aleabitoreddit Really enjoy your takes, where do so see $NBIS in all this?


Summary: Bullish AAOI: $378M/month transceiver revenue projection by mid-2027 at $5.5B MC is extraordinary scale, surpassing LITE guidance by 40%.

Holy $AAOI …

Just putting it out there they’re projecting $378 million in monthly revenue for transceivers.

At a $5.5B MC.

This is the definition of extreme scale up.

Although margins are different, $AAOI projections would actually surpass $LITE next quarter guidance by 40%:

"Given the recent surge in customer inquiries and apparent rising demand, we believe that by mid-2027, 100G and 400G revenue will be approximately $90 million. 800G revenue will be approximately $217 million and 1.6 terabit revenue will be approximately $71 million monthly. Altogether, this represents $378 million in monthly revenue for transceiver products."

Absolutely unholy projections unseen since $SNDK earnings.


Summary: Bullish MU: forward P/E 8.4–8.7 vs 133% revenue and 319% EPS growth makes it a buy on fundamentals, not timing.

I like to give this example:

$WMT, the sock reseller has a forward P/E is ~40 and it's growing ~5.8% Y/Y in line with inflation.

$MU, the leading memory supercycle company, has a forward P/E is 8.4-8.7 ish, off 133% revenue growth Y/Y, and EPS growth 319% Y/Y.

I don't think people should be timing the market here, just look at fundamentals.

@aleabitoreddit I want to enter MU, but waiting for a better price, which doesn't seem to be coming soon. Do I overthink it and should just buy?
Memory shortage and demand should be going at least into mid/late 2027.
What is your PT for the next 12 months?
Thanks for your insight and help.


Summary: Long CRDO (selloff overreaction); bullish fan of photonic supply chain names LITE, COHR, AAOI, AXTI.

@Frenchie_ I have $CRDO on there since I felt the selloff to $95 was a huge overreaction.

But I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI type companies

@aleabitoreddit Are you short copper ? Guessing you like photonic more


I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE


I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR


I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI


photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI type companies

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'


Summary: Short-term liquidity drain across BTC/ETH/SPY from gold/silver crash, but medium-term bullish once selloff is absorbed, aided by AI-bull Fed Chair pushing rate cuts.

I see it as a short term liquidity drain across the board (Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPY, mid-cap, etc) from Silver/Gold crash.

The new Fed Chair is probably one of the biggest AI bulls you will ever see and is arguing for rate cuts to funnel AI growth + productivity. So really great medium term once the silver/gold selloff gets bought back.

@aleabitoreddit I need extremely bullish for AI after that Friday :(


Summary: Bullish NBIS: ~25% stake in Clickhouse at $15B valuation likely to appreciate further ahead of potential IPO.

@offermemoneyXYZ Clickhouse was actually an internal project run by Nebius, but it spun off as an independent company.

$NBIS owns ~25% of Clickhouse at $15B valuation, and that MC is likely go up lots higher up until their possible ipo.

@aleabitoreddit never know clickhouse is under $nbis


Summary: Bullish AAOI; inflection point reached with accelerating large hyperscaler orders expected to keep coming.

@JungleStocks Because it’s after a $200M hyperscaler order 5 days ago…

I’m just saying get used to a lot of these orders, since $AAOI hit their inflection point

@aleabitoreddit What's so special about a 53M$ order for a 7B market cap?


'Made in America' is the greatest moat $MU and $INTC have... $MU forward P/E would likely be ~8.2-8.5 with gross margins sitting at 75-77%... We're seeing the USA 'Made in America' moat live in action together with 'The Memory Supercycle' of endless price hikes improving bottom lines

Summary: Long MU on 'Made in America' moat + memory supercycle driving 75-77% GMs; INTC also benefits from same domestic moat thesis.

"Made in America" is the greatest moat $MU and $INTC have.

Here's the recent developments with Micron:

From NAND + DRAM hike est. on the 25th:

$MU forward P/E would likely be ~8.2-8.5 with gross margins sitting at 75-77%.

This is followed by new comments from Trump and Lutnick:

- “Everyone who wants to build memory has two choices: They can pay a 100 per cent tariff, or they can build in America" - Lutnick (Micron Technology memory chip plant, Jan 17)

- "Trump raises US tariffs on South Korea imports to 25%" - (Jan 27th)

It's a fascinating dynamic as Micron still gets tax benefits through overseas expansion as America's champion. Whereas similar expansions by Samsung or SK Hynix are viewed through the lens of tariff risk.

This is coupled with new news today that Micron was ramping up NAND production in Singapore with $24B.

So everyone was wondering, why $MU was valued higher than other memory makers?

We're seeing the the USA "Made in America" moat live in action together with "The Memory Supercycle" of endless price hikes improving bottom lines.

The White House is doing everything it can to make its domestic leaders succeed.

Holy crap. This just happened:

"Samsung increases NAND prices by 100%" - ETNews

Estimates were 33-38% Q/Q growth - Trendforce

This is an absolute shock.

It's called the "Memory Supercycle" for a reason with $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix + $SNDK.

In simpler terms:

That extra https://t.co/dOsxDCdOzo


'Made in America' is the greatest moat $MU and $INTC have


$MU looks like the next Nvidia. AI has broken that cycle. Don't overthink things with Micron.

Summary: Bullish MU as the next Nvidia re-rating story; AI breaks the memory cycle, White House backing, still undervalued at 11.6x forward PE.

$MU looks like the next Nvidia.

When Nvidia was $400B (now $4.5T+), markets thought GPUs were a short-term cycle.

Same with memory today.

AI has broken that cycle.

With the same "Made in America" and White House backing like $INTC:

Don't overthink things with Micron. https://t.co/LBhbVjoKGz

$MU forward P/E is still ~11.6

It's projecting:

- 133% Y/Y Revenue Increase
- 319% Y/Y EPS Increase

This is called the memory supercycle for a reason.

Even after a 40%+ this month, it's still hasn't even been fully re-rated yet.

At current prices, it would still be valued https://t.co/BfU292MV2u


Even after the increase, it's still trading at $295M vs. $360M book value. Looks like markets is waking up to the structural dividend announcement last week, unlocking value to shareholders. On top of that you get a high growth, high margin 91% Y/Y AI segment for free.

Summary: Still bullish Yamamura Glass post-20% surge: trades below book at $295M vs $360M, dividend unlock + 91% Y/Y photonics segment.

This is Japan’s largest Bottlemaker by the way.

Up 20.3% after my post today.

> Seeing parallels like Toto the toilet maker with Memory vs. Yamamura the bottle maker with Photonics.

Even after the increase, it’s still trading at $295M vs. $360M book value.

Looks like markets is waking up to the structural dividend announcement last week, unlocking value to shareholders.

On top of that you get a high growth, high margin 91% Y/Y AI segment for free.

Took a closer look: Yamamura glass (TYO: 5210) is a banger.

You’re basically buying the business for free?

And their photonics division is growing 91% Y/Y for optical communication caps.

You are paying $240M for a company that does $500M sales with $360M+ in actual book value https://t.co/mlHtUaL2xH


Summary: Bullish MU: 11.6x forward P/E with 133% revenue and 319% EPS growth leaves a long way to go.

$WMT trades at 40.43 forward P/E.

Yes, Walmart the bath towel reseller that's growing revenue 4.9% Y/Y in line with inflation.

$MU trades at 11.6 forward P/E growing revenue 133% Y/Y, and EPS 319% Y/Y.

There's a long way to go for Micron, looking at prices alone is a not the brightest way to invest since fundamentals are more important.

Stocks make ATHs every day.

@aleabitoreddit Buying at ATH’s though is not the brightest idea


Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months. If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous. And they're growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth.

Summary: Long RDDT: mispriced at $24B MC, ~28% effective net margin, 50%+ revenue growth; META-like monetization ceiling still untapped.

$RDDT is getting ridiculous.

Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months.

If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous.

And they’re growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth.

If you ever look at $META, you know how much revenue can be optimized/user. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for monetization with Reddit.

It’s already derisked since IPO since Reddit is now one of the fastest growing and highest margin companies in the market.

One day if it pulls a $CRCL post earnings,
we’ll look back and wonder how this was valued at $24 billion MC.


Summary: Author argues ARM deserves more than a 5% move on AGI CPU news given $15B revenue projection; implied bullish.

$ARM expects $15B in annual revenue from the the AGI CPU:

"The company projects that the new chip business will generate over $15 billion in annual revenue" within the next 5 years.

5 times current revenues (~$25B revenue)...

Arm probably deserves to be up more than 5% on this news if they're multiplying their revenue with a new product overnight?

$ARM announces new AI chip called "AGI CPU"

According to Arm, the company "Expects it to add billions in annual revenue".

- 136 Neoverse V3 cores, built on $TSM 3nm process

- Custom-built for "agentic AI" workloads with OpenAI and $META as lead customers.

$AMD and $INTC have https://t.co/C1HbUg0Noj


Summary: Long AEHR as speculative play on HBM burn-in/silicon photonics; MRVL a buy but waiting until H2 2026 given MSFT Maia roadmap delays.

I'm actually long $AEHR right now in the event any of the big three memory companies use them for HBM DRAM die burn in or hyperscalers expands Sonoma usage. Then there's silicon photonics, which is another area of interest.

So it's more of a speculative moonshot pick to see if it can compete with Advantest and $TER.

As for $MRVL, I like it but I find it more of a wait until H2 2026 long. There were reports $MSFT Maia faced roadmap longer delays by like half a year and a large part of marvell's expected revenue growth is tethered to this specific hyperscaler ASIC program.

So I'll revisit it later on in the year.

@aleabitoreddit I’m also curious to hear your specific take on Marvell and Aehr Test Systems


I like it but I find it more of a wait until H2 2026 long


Summary: Long photonics complex (AAOI, LITE, COHR, IQE, AXTI) — InP/photonics is the next memory, NVDA investing in the space, only getting started.

I literally dropped a photonics goldmine last year.

Did you listen anon?

Everything either went up 2-3X in the past two months from $AXTI to $AAOI.

$LITE ended up increasing 100%+.

Even $COHR and $IQE is close to doubling.

AAOI is on a mega-rally right now and is likely to keep going higher given their $4.5B projections.

And now $NVDA investing these same photonics companies today from $LITE ( $IQE supplier and $AXTI suppliers to $LITE) to $COHR.

Photonics is the next memory, with companies like $AAOI looking like the next $SNDK.

Best of all, it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers.

$AAOI is up 24% and $LITE is 5% since my thesis today.

From BOM analysis, LITE ($27B) is levered toward TPU Ironwood due to OCS but benefits from NVDA + all ASICs.

AAOI ($2.5B), is levered toward MSFT MAIA ramp and Amazon Trainium.

InP like HBM, will be a bottleneck for 2026 https://t.co/TcZ6FUXRkx


it's only just getting started for a lot of the upstream suppliers


Summary: Bullish SNDK, MU, Samsung, SK Hynix on NAND price surge driven by tightening supply and inelastic demand from hyperscalers.

NAND prices have now spiraled out of control.

Memory companies like $SNDK, $MU, Samsung, SK Hynix stand to benefit the most from inelastic supply and recent NAND price hikes.

According to Phison's CEO per Digitimes:

"NAND flash prices have surged amid tightening supply, with some manufacturers raising quotations by as much as 50% overnight"

This follows reports this week that Samsung has just doubled NAND prices for Q2.

Available inventory is becoming non-existent, with hyperscalers and companies willing to pay anything to secure allocation.


Summary: New personal picks: Soitec for silicon photonics substrates, SIVE as next LITE for CPO/photonics, TSEM as TSM-equivalent for photonics.

Soitec listed on Euronext Paris as SOI.PA

@MattReno264555 My personal new ones were Soitec ( $SOI ) for silicon photonics substrates and $SIVE as the next $LITE for CPO/Silicon photonics.

As well as $TSEM as the $TSM for photonics

This past week.

@aleabitoreddit Ok, congrats.  We need a new one please.   Im new


The $AXTI bottleneck is playing out real time… it's just a waiting game for the upstream suppliers like AXT to increase prices… The supply shock feels inevitable.

Summary: Long AXTI: Indium/InP substrate supply shock playing out in real time as hyperscalers absorb supply; price increases inevitable.

7N Indium prices have just hit ATHs on SMM with zero signs of slowing down.

The $AXTI bottleneck is playing out real time.

Western hyperscalers appear to be soaking up every bit of the InP substrates + precursors supply for the AI buildout.

Like $SNDK and $MU, it's just a waiting game for the upstream suppliers like AXT to increase prices (like NAND).

The supply shock feels inevitable.


Summary: Top sector picks starting March 2026: photonics (AAOI, AXTI), memory (Samsung, SK Hynix), power (XLU on rate cuts/grid), defense (LASR on Iran conflict catalyst).

Photonics, Memory, Power, and Defense are probably the top 3 momentum sectors right now.

There’s others like advanced packaging or thermal but you won’t get to the severe bottleneck or returns as top 4 imo.

$AAOI and $AXTI are top two favorite photonic plays.

Samsung and SK Hynix are top two memory plays.

Power I’ve already said $XLU from rate cuts + grid modernization + hyperscaler inference.

Then defense probably $LASR and others for a bit since the Iran conflict is one of the biggest catalysts. (And hanging around until there’s peacetime)

I usually rotate around 30 or so stocks, so one others like $RDDT I’ve been swing trading and others I’ve mentioned in the past like $RPI I just hold on the side with less concentration in case my thesis turns out right.

Large part of it is riding the momentum.

@aleabitoreddit Whats would be your pick , if you start new from march 2026.


Samsung and SK Hynix are top two memory plays


$XLU from rate cuts + grid modernization + hyperscaler inference


defense probably $LASR and others for a bit since the Iran conflict is one of the biggest catalysts


even at $22 with the regulatory issues cleared up, looks good again. And now there's 40% of the float shorted to add fuel to the fire

Summary: Bullish HIMS at $22: regulatory issues clearing + 40% short float creates upside catalyst.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

@demarscrypto Lot of people bought $HIMS, 50-$70, so even at $22 with the regulatory issues cleared up, looks good again.

And now there’s 40% of the float shorted to add fuel to the fire

@aleabitoreddit Another 37% and I’ll be break even 😂


Summary: Long AAOI long-term on management execution; high conviction provided projections are met.

@Mellokhai Very confident about $AAOI long term as long as management executives and hits their projections.

$IQE more of a moonshot with a ton of risks with debt/restructuring, who knows. Glad it's doubled since I mentioned it though.

@aleabitoreddit we are going to make millions with $AAOI and $IQE


Summary: Bullish on POET as upstream laser supplier with derisked captive revenue from hyperscaler chains; secondary long on MRVL via Celestial co-design thesis.

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ

All good questions! My thoughts:

- With $NVDA GTC, CPO is hitting their inflection point today. So I think the timing is right. Before, it was too early.
- Largely undiscovered, as I mentioned in supply chain mapping, most institutions don't go upstream to pinpoint major players (as seen with $AXTI).
- Stockholm market so very niche, not as many people pay attention to it.
- They refinanced, so it's in a healthy spot. Debt is $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which is pennies to hyperscaler supply chains.

As for scale: Win semi qualification is very critical.

It's more derisked in my view from captive models like $SIVE (light source) $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $MSFT Maia in 2028 kind of guaranteeing revenue in the future from hyperscaler supply chains.

Then there's a lot of potential with Ayar, and others.

It's the upstream laser supplier so wins either way across the board, but it does need to compete with $LITE, $MTSI, $OCHR and others.

My argument was that it was early enough to tailor and co-design cw dfb lasers toward companies like $POET specifications so it's more designed in.

Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial.

@aleabitoreddit thanks for sharing bro!

You noted that suppliers usually trade at a premium to packagers. Why is the market currently getting this wrong? Is it just undiscovered, or is there a known drag on the stock (e.g., high cash burn, debt, or the CPO transition taking longer than


Same argument with $POET and Marvell Celestial


Summary: Long both AAOI and AXTI on photonics AI paradigm shift; neither priced in yet, both supply hyperscalers.

Photonics is the new paradigm shift for AI over the next few years.

Both $AAOI and $AXTI supply to all the hyperscalers and are the forefront of it (while being really small in marketcap).

Don't think either of them are priced in yet. Why should I choose between individual Huskeys when I can have both carrying my sled?

@aleabitoreddit Highest conviction for 5X in 12 months, $AAOI or AXTI?


Summary: Bullish AXTI and IQE as upstream bottleneck suppliers to Lumentum after NVDA's $2B deal; market hasn't yet priced them vs LITE.

Everyone is rushing to buy $LITE at a $54B MC after the $NVDA $2B deal.

Wait until they find out who the upstream bottlenecks and suppliers to Lumentum are.

Companies like $AXTI and possibly $IQE likely have a long way to go. https://t.co/Hep3S6174M

$NVDA has just invested $2 billion to support Lumentum's R&D and a new U.S. fabrication facility.

This is a massive tailwind for photonics stocks from: $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI, $IQE and others.

$IQE's 28% rise today makes more sense as they're a known $LITE supplier. And https://t.co/RqlcFrvCAv


possibly $IQE likely have a long way to go


Summary: Bullish AAOI: hyperscaler demand is unconstrained, ATM dilution is justified capex not a red flag.

@pablocuellar_3 If 3 hyperscalers say they will buy any transceivers you can possibly ever make. It's not really a demand problem with $AAOI, just how much they can capacity they can buildout.

$250m is pennies considering it's used for that reason (and not just hoarding like $GME or $POET).

@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on their ATM dilution?


Summary: Long VPG as a robotics play: 3-8% BOM content per Tesla Optimus unit is highly valuable given the company's small size.

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'

I messed up on my $SSYS thesis regarding prototyping/ramp-up, so I wanted a robotics play directly tethered to the amount of robots produced with high % revenue for each robot.

This is speculation but an est. 3-8% ~BOM value for each Tesla Optimus is incredible for $VPG given how small they are.

@aleabitoreddit nice, been looking for robotics play. Agree market is not pricing how big robotics will be in 2026/2027


Summary: High conviction long on NBIS and CIFR into 2026, expecting 2-3x re-rating as data center plays.

Companies like $NBIS or $CIFR are high conviction for 2026.

But it’s not the same as a small $50m niche company, suddenly being in over-demand from $NVDA or $MSFT stockpiling inventory.

You might get a 2-3x 1Y re-rating with DCs but it’s a different story than 2000%+ information discovery of a new bottleneck.

Same with known bottlenecks like $UUUU or $MP

That being said I also misspelled indium phosphide and missiles in my article so you can tell I hand wrote it (also embarrassing)

@aleabitoreddit Nice write up! Do you feel that data center stocks (like $NBIS $CIFR $IREN) and REE/CM stocks (like $UEC $UUUU $NB) have already had their run, or is there room for more upside this year?


Summary: Long Soitec as the better CPO play long-term; cautiously long the implied subject (laser/CPO name) through 2026 on hyperscaler supply shortage, more cautious in 2027.

@itsmaimir For CPO, Soitec is a much better long term defensible play.

This is raw momentum + execution type play based on hyperscalers lacking supply over the next year. I’d be a little more cautious in 2027.

@aleabitoreddit Will they have bright future along with CPO except selling lasers? This one thing and not being sure how market prices it keeps me worried and I missed it earlier.


raw momentum + execution type play based on hyperscalers lacking supply over the next year. I'd be a little more cautious in 2027

Lumentum Holdings trades as LITE on NASDAQ


I'm sorry everyone… I thought $TSEM was a steady compounder over time like $TSM but it's going up 17% a day?

Summary: Sarcastically apologetic about TSEM surging 17% in a day; author is bullish, position confirmed held.

I’m sorry everyone…

I thought $TSEM was a steady compounder over time like $TSM

but it’s going up 17% a day? https://t.co/QXWW7cgIXP

I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics.

My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi.

Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week:

I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst.

Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T https://t.co/Au3HYKNm7V


Summary: Bullish memory sector: NAND prices up 100%+ QoQ, structural demand means wild operating income when it hits earnings.

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

The consensus is "They can't keep hiking rates like this, it's unsustainable!"

Then I see NAND prices getting hiked 100%+ quarter after quarter... Operating income for these companies will likely be wild when it shows up on earnings.

Memory demand is now structural, but who knows about prices yet.

@aleabitoreddit We are in for a treat. Everyone calling the memory cycle dead clearly never heard of inelastic supply meeting hyperscaler desperation.

People have a hard time adjusting to changes in paradigms. That is why I rather have strong beliefs loosely held


Summary: Bullish CXL names ALAB/AVGO/MRVL on DeepSeek v4; ALAB a good long on any drop; NVDA memory fears overblown, dip volatility is noise.

Sure, my opinion is probably bullish for CXL like $ALAB, $AVGO, $MRVL. Astera probably a good long on the drop.

Memory fears are overblown. I'd assume media will try to take advantage of $NVDA PTSD for short term volatility + sensational news.

If engram drops inference costs by 10-40x (not memory reduction), it just expands TAM. We'll just get more hbm4 added gpus to run more concurrent model instances. it's irreplaceable (especially for training), even if inference get more efficient.

@aleabitoreddit Do you have an opinion on the imminent release of deepseek v4 which will reportedly have a 10-40x reduced memory usage, and how that could affect the memory names?


probably bullish for CXL like $ALAB, $AVGO, $MRVL


Memory fears are overblown. I'd assume media will try to take advantage of $NVDA PTSD for short term volatility + sensational news


Summary: Not currently long IREN; advises waiting for ATM dilution to play out before going long for equity appreciation.

If you read my disclosure, I have zero economic interest or positions in $IREN.

I'm just stating the harsh reality that retail "dip buyers" will be inevitably be diluted and serve as liquidity for the $6 Billion ATM.

Letting others take the dilution hit first and going long after is likely the smarter alternative if you want to long $IREN and benefit from equity appreciation.

Especially since ATMs are one of the more retail-destructive methods to finance.

@aleabitoreddit Someone is short Iren. Interesting.


Summary: Expects a broader market recovery by Midterms later this year, implying recovery in beaten-down high-beta names.

@soulbiri1 Yeah today was extremely rough for high-beta. $CRDO, $IREN, $CIFR, and others just got nuked.

$AMD down -17%, even $MSFT down -22%+ past two months.

I'd expect when Midterms come around later in the year, we'll see a broader recovery.

@aleabitoreddit My portfolio got nuked today, still hodling these IBIT 2027 leaps though, hopefully will be enough time for recovery


Summary: Bullish HIMS: global M&A built a monopoly moat in retail healthcare distribution with significant untapped revenue monetization potential.

Absolutely, I see the $HIMS parallel to $META acquiring all the social media companies a decade ago.

This wouldn't work today since FTC would block companies like $RDDT acquiring all their competitors like $SNAP.

But $HIMS pulled off a global M&A spree, building a monopoly moat over retail healthcare distribution from Zava in Europe, Livewell in Canada, and Eucalyptus for Australia/Japan.

So, now that $HIMS somehow managed to build capture the global retail base for healthcare... With regulatory issues cleared up, there's a lot of latent revenue monetization potential.

@aleabitoreddit The distribution is definitely the interesting piece. If they can meaningfully increase revenue per user over time, the model could look very different a few years out.


Summary: Bullish HIMS on solid fundamentals and valuable distribution network; dismisses it as a meme stock.

@moninvestor It is, fundamentally $HIMS is a very solid company with a valuable distribution network.

Otherwise wouldn’t be mentioning it if it were a meme stock with no fundamentals.

That being said, I hope those directional hedge fund shorting HIMS get what they deserve. https://t.co/JraGQ0XNFJ


Summary: Long XLU on AI power/grid bottleneck thesis: AI buildout + hyperscaler capex + rate cuts drive utility re-rating; 40% upside mapped.

The biggest United States AI bottleneck:

Power and Grid Capacity.

This has been echoed by the CEOs of every major US AI company recently.

Here's the list from $MSFT to $AMZN:

Jensen Huang ( $NVDA ): "At the lowest level: energy. China has twice the amount of energy we have as a nation, and our economy is larger than theirs. It makes no sense to me... There are no new industries you can grow without energy." (CSIS event)

Elon Musk ( $TSLA / xAI): "Billions of dollars of the most advanced AI hardware ever built. Sitting dark. Not because the chips don’t work. Because there isn’t enough electricity to run them." (Recent Podcast)

Sam Altman (OpenAI): "Meeting global AI demand will eventually require hundreds of gigawatts of power. Whoever controls power controls the AI value chain." (Recent Interview)

Andy Jassy ( $AMZN ): "[Our] single biggest constraint is power. I don't believe that we will have fully resolved the amount of capacity we need for the demand that we have in a couple of quarters." (Amazon Earnings Call)

Satya Nadella ( $MSFT ): "The biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's power. It's sort of the ability to get the builds done fast enough close to power. So, if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in." (BG2 Pod)

You have every single CEO of American AI labs telling you what the major bottlenecks are for US Artificial Intelligence:

Generating the Energy, and expanding the Grid.

So, we might see boring utilities and power producers  in $XLU be strongly re-rated because of:

1. AI inference + training extreme ramp and demand for GW-scale DCs.
2. Hyperscaler extreme capex pouring into the sector.
3. Rate Cut tailwinds.

And most of all. That fact that:

The United States as a country has to rebuild its grid to win a geopolitical arms race.

If I had to turn $100k -> $1M in 1 year.

It would be: $XLU OTM 2 year leaps

2026 is the first time in modern history markets have:

-  falling interest rates
- AI inference + buildout

There's a potential ~40%  for XLU (1000%+ OTM), from mapping.

Here's my macro thesis: https://t.co/R3Lcbwam38


Summary: Long AXTI now on InP supply squeeze; long Soitec (SLOIF) into 2028 CPO inflection as photonics-SOI monopoly, both critical bottlenecks for 800g/1.6T and CPO.

Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is the monopoly silicon photonics mirror to $AXTI.

Basically it’s directly tethered to CPO and its inflection point late 2027-2028

For 800g/1.6T and CPO, hard to really do it without $AXTI and Soitec:

AXT for InP

Soitec for photonics-soi substrates. Functional monopoly

(Shin Etsy operates under their license) -> (Intel, Global Foundaties, Tower)

But expect them to get rerated extremely hard early 2028 when CPO hits the inflection point.

However similar to $IQE, there’s tons of legacy drag affecting their stock price.

For $AXTI the supply squeeze is happening now.

For Soitec might be 6 months or a year too early but don’t know when markets start frontrunning it.

But just putting it out there as a future bottleneck.


expect them to get rerated extremely hard early 2028 when CPO hits the inflection point


Summary: Bullish Korean semis (Samsung, SK Hynix) and US hyperscalers on AI-driven operating income ramp through 2027.

Global ranking of the most profitable companies in the world (Mag 7 vs. World)

Projections for 2025->2026->2027 (Operating Income).

#1: $NVDA (USA, 4.4T MC) 🇺🇸
~$135.0B -> $186.5B -> $240.1 Billion

#2: Samsung Electronics (Korea, $820B MC) 🇰🇷
~$30.2B -> ~$170B -> ~$226.7 Billion

#3 $MSFT (USA, $2.9T MC)
~$128.5B -> 153.0B -> $181.5 Billion

#4 $GOOGL (USA, $3.7T MC)
~$129.0B -> $142.0B -> $173.0B

#4 Sk Hynix (Korea, $410B MC)
~$32.7B -> ~$124B -> ~$161.0 Billion

#5 $APPL (USA, $3.76T MC)
$133.1B -> $146.0B -> $160.5B

#6 $AMZN (USA, $2.13T MC)
$80.0B -> $105.0B -> $136.5B

#7 $Meta (USA, $1.62T MC)
$83.3 -> $97.0B -> $121.5B

#8 $TSLA (USA, $1.31T MC)
$4.4B -> $8.0B -> $24.0B

Samsung Electronics, a $820B company in Korea is projected to catch up to $NVDA in 2027 in operating income.

Meanwhile Sk Hynix is projected to overtake both $APPL and $AMZN in operating income in 2027.

The main takeaway is that the growth of both US hyperscalers and South Korean equities is astounding due to Artificial Intelligence ramp.


Sk Hynix is projected to overtake both $APPL and $AMZN in operating income in 2027


the growth of both US hyperscalers and South Korean equities is astounding due to Artificial Intelligence ramp


profits aren't exactly high, but they're expected to balloon in a few years as Google TPU programs and others scale up

Summary: Bullish LITE on expected profit balloon from Google TPU and photonics scale-up from 2028 onward.

Good question for photonics you can see major scale up 2028 onward. It’s 2026 now and things are just getting priced in anticipation ( $LITE profits aren’t exactly high, but they’re expected to balloon in a few years as Google TPU programs and others scale up).

For memory you see it hitting the balance sheet now as net income increases like 300% Y/Y. This is expected to last well into 2028.

Memory demand is structural and they’ll maintain a lot of pricing power into late 2028 though imo.

@aleabitoreddit @dubiousnoob Favorite photonics play ?

How do you determine if we are “mid cycle” and “at the start” ?


Summary: Bullish NBIS: dismisses acquisition thesis, calls it the next hyperscaler in its own right.

@inversorBetico No. I think $NBIS is the next hyperscaler

@aleabitoreddit Do you think $NBIS will be acquired by a hyperscaler?


Summary: Discloses held long position in context of silicon photonics/CPO capital rotation; also mentions POET as WSB-discussed play.

I can't control how the market prices in free public information synthesis posted publicly.

The WSB crowd has been on $POET (and talked about $SIVE) for a little bit, but nobody was synthesizing Sivers Photonics in a readable way. I also think they missed the timing.

With capital rotating into silicon photonics/CPO, I felt it was the right time personally.

I hold a long position, but I am not recommending others take this trade. I just wanted to share my research and ideas

@aleabitoreddit It's rocketing right after your post


Summary: Long AXTI as a bottleneck play on AI buildout via photonics.

@SL2056 Yeah $AXTI moves 20% a day which is why I say it’s really important to build conviction yourself before you enter a trade + size positions correctly.

If you can stomach the volatility, I think AXT is a great bottleneck play for the AI buildout with photonics

@aleabitoreddit I don’t know how u got into my feed but I followed u initially into AXTI.  This stock moves all over but I stayed and thank goodness! I thank u for your insight. U are a gift that kept giving! Now I am true believer 🙏


Summary: Added to AAOI around current levels; bullish on 3-hyperscaler demand + $378M/month revenue projection by H2 2027.

I was actually in $AAOI since $28-ish last year, so it's 3x'd since then.

But didn't really have high conviction in it, just thought it had potential given Made in America supply chains + hyperscaler qualification at the time.

But management projections recently sealed the deal, so I ended up buying more around these levels.

Having 3 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, buying up any supply you can make is incredibly bullish.

Especially when they're projecting $378M a month revenue round H2 2027.

Markets are forward looking so I think it started to get priced in now. Only uncertainty is execution, but that's the risk you're taking with majority of companies.

@aleabitoreddit Yes but hard to enter now after that run


Summary: High-conviction long AAOI as vertically integrated photonics play; potential re-rate to $35B+ from $7B on full supply-chain ownership vs peers LITE and FN.

$AAOI is extraordinarily exciting.

There is a chance this re-rates to $35B+ or higher next year from $7B if they can execute.

I'll give a TLDR of the landscape and a simple explanation why:

Assembly:

-> Lasers from $LITE / $COHR -> assembles from blueprints ->  then sell the transceiver.

$FN (Asia) -> ~$20B MC.
 ~$4B projected revenue, 12.4% gross margins.

Design + Assembly:

- Buys lasers from $LITE / $COHR, design the 800G and 1.6T -> then sells the transceiver.

Innolight (China): ~$84B MC
~ 46.2% gross margins, ~$11B projected revenue

Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC:
~$5.3B projected revenue

Lasers:

- Creates the Lasers to sell to Innolight + Eoptolink or creates the lasers + design to give to $FN to assemble for them/.

$LITE, $55B MC:
FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B (~40% margin)

(they also do more than lasers, eg. $LITE with Cloudlite does design -> $FN to assemble based on blueprints too, but not the entire process end-to-end).
( $COHR and $AVGO do this too)
_ _ _ _ _ _

Entire supply chain (laser chips, design, and assembly)

$AAOI $7.5B MC:
Midpoint 2027 est. ~4.5B ARR (40% margin)

- $AAOI makes the laser (like $LITE), designs it from ground up (like Innolight), then assembles it like ( $FN ):

And it's primarily made in the USA.

-> $AAOI does the $LITE / $COHR lasers in-house
-> $AAOI does Innolight/Eoptolink transceiver design.
->  $AAOI does $FN's assembly.

This is possible margin expansion/optimization across the board.

Best of all they're projected to leapfrogging $LITE's FY2026 projected ~$2.91B revenue...

By doing: ~4.5B ARR mid-year 2027

When you look at $AAOI's $7.5B Marketcap.

And you look at each part of the photonics supply chain from $LITE at $55B to Eoptolink at $55B.

Anyone can see the raw, unadulterated upside if they execute.

High conviction long: $AAOI.

I genuinely think this could easily be a 3x by next year.

Nvidia funded $COHR, who does Malaysia manufacturing for 800G/1.6T.

$LITE uses FN in Thailand for volume production, and has it's own manufacturing in Thailand.

I will keep https://t.co/k1lXJiSBQi


Summary: Long Soitec (SLOIF/SOI) as quasi-monopoly on SOI substrates for CPO; holds 1-2 years on photonics ramp driven by NVDA architecture.

Thank you MarketScreener for actual coverage of $SOI this time.

The article writes:

“In the post dedicated to Soitec, the author puts forward several arguments.

He believes that the group could benefit from the development of CPO (co-packaged optics), a photonic architecture designed to accompany the rise of artificial intelligence and data centers.

According to him, Soitec would have a quasi-monopolistic position on certain SOI substrates used in this technology, an advantage that could become strategic if photonics is adopted on a large scale.

The investor also mentions a valuation level that he considers low and believes that the market could begin to position itself ahead of a promising cycle for photonics by 2027”

This was exactly the thesis, no extra fluff.

Last time media from FT and Bloomberg covered my thesis on $RPI, they labeled it a “meme-stock” out of nowhere. With many outlets straight up adding words never stated, which triggered negative sentiment.

That being said:

$SOI is a virtual monopoly over the substrate layer for CPO.

I plan to hold my positions over the next year or two, as I expect it to be the largest beneficiary of the upcoming architectural ramp spearheaded by $NVDA.

Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure.

$NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture.

~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations)

Genuine monopoly over https://t.co/3vPQQfyHrE


upcoming architectural ramp spearheaded by $NVDA


Summary: SMCI looks undervalued at ~$12B MC despite poor optics; worth taking the risk.

@afgmantu Hear me out... $SMCI optics are trash.

But business itself looks undervalued at ~$12B MC. So might be worth taking the risk here.


That inevitable $6B in new shares + selling pressure structurally caps upside in your equity and serves as a overhang in any rally... the your share prices tanking in value

Summary: Bearish IREN for current holders: $6B ATM creates massive dilution and structural selling pressure that caps share price even as market cap may rise.

$IREN $6 Billion ATM is massive.

For the people who hold $IREN, the truth you might not want to hear is:

-> Wait until existing holders get diluted to oblivion
-> Use them to "buy the dip" of $6 Billion in new shares for you.
-> Go long after.

If you're long now:

That inevitable $6B in new shares + selling pressure structurally caps upside in your equity and serves as a overhang in any rally.

Companies don’t file a $6B ATM not to use it.

They will, and as much as they can on any rally.

The reality is that there are other financing methods, but ATMs are the most destructive ones to retail shareholders.

$IREN itself is a solid company unlike movie theater stocks, but like excessive dilution referenced:

You will likely see the marketcap of $IREN go up back toward $20B, but the your share prices tanking in value.

TLDR: The harsh reality is $IREN might fundamentally succeed and build a massive DC footprint.

But it's at the cost of heavily diluting retail shareholders. Retail investors should care more about the value of their own stock increasing over the company's value.

Disclosure: I have zero economic interest or positions in the company, but I do care about prioritizing retail interest.


Summary: Bullish on SIVE as upstream laser bottleneck for next architectural shift; LITE cited as the comparable beneficiary in current EML cycles.

I mean $LITE went from $17 to $709? Every companies gotta start somewhere.

Just the trajectory, definitely not $50B MC by next year.

However, they're positioned well as the upstream laser bottleneck for the next architectural shift, similar to what $LITE is in current EML cycles.

@aleabitoreddit SIVE can be next LITE? So you mean tens of billions in Mcap?


Summary: Bullish LITE on staggering photonics buildout growth trajectory.

@PhotonCap Absolutely, when you map the photonics buildout and projected growth with $LITE and others, people can just see how staggering it is.

But they miss upstream precursors that make it all happen, which is why I’m expecting it to be a major bottleneck.

@aleabitoreddit Photonics, by definition, requires light.

To generate that light, III–V compound semiconductors are necessary, and InP substrates are essential for their fabrication/growth.


Summary: Author calls to be long laser suppliers (SIVE, MTSI, COHR, LITE) and their foundries (TSEM, Win Semi) citing Broadcom's acknowledgment of laser supply constraints in semiconductors.

Every industry leader...

Especially $AVGO (Physical Layer Products division) in this statement today.

Cites Lasers as a bottleneck for semiconductors.

If you aren't long...
-> CW Lasers: $SIVE | $MTSI
-> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE
-> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi

Maybe it's time to wake up?

Broadcom Ramachandran: "Even though there are multiple suppliers in the industry today... there is definitely a supply constraint in the laser space,”


If you aren't long... -> EML Lasers: $COHR


If you aren't long... -> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE


If you aren't long... -> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi


Win Semi Taiwan foundry; retrying .TWO OTC market suffix


$NBIS that's in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp

Summary: Maintains long SOI (silicon photonics/CPO monopoly thesis unchanged) and long NBIS (Q4 revenue ramp buildout); macro weakness not a reason to exit.

Not a fan of these types of posts, but I’ll do one today again:

When a stock like $SOI drops 6% and reverses a lot of its gains this week:

Nothing about SOI substrates thesis for silicon photonics / CPO level monopoly has changed.

Unfortunately, the broader index (Paris Stock Index) crashed 9% this month and keeps going down.

And broader macro from the War in Iran drives down a lot of names.

Not every name I mention like $AXTI can go in a straight line up but they tend to be strong outperformers.

I’ll post if my thesis materially changed.

But if a stock price drops because of macro or just a slight correction after rising 400% like $AAOI.

Or if $SIVE dropped 16% on Friday before rising 35% on Monday…

Short term stock prices does not chance a thesis.

And it shouldn’t to your conviction either.

Especially with names, if I don’t mention them for a bit like, $IQE that’s just in a waiting period for restructuring or asset sales. Or $NBIS that’s in its silent buildout phase for extreme q4 revenue ramp.

Performance like these are sometimes byproducts of macro.

But if they can go down 10% in one week, they can go up 10% the next.


Summary: AIXA seen as photonics-ASML capturing capex cycle; LITE and AXTI as key photonics beneficiaries (EML, substrates) in the current cycle.

$AIXA is like the $ASML for photonics and captures a large capex cycle this year.

Even so, I personally don't have positions, since I'm not a fan of equipment sellers in semi supply chains.

That benefit materially, but most of the largest beneficiaries are the likely bottleneck price-hikers of the world as seen with $SNDK.

And in current cycles that's EML like $LITE or substrates like $AXTI. Even though there haven't been much price hikes yet.

@aleabitoreddit What's your opinion about https://t.co/teaTGWL7YC?


Summary: Bullish CRCL at $54 on fundamentals: USDC supply $70B+, stablecoin growth, Clarity Act; valuation reset is an opportunity others are ignoring.

$CRCL is a good lesson why fundamentals matter more than stock price/charts.

Things to watch are USDC supply, interest rates, and Clarity Act.

Not whether or not sentiment is bad or if the XYZ TA says it’s going to $30.

Everyone on X was rushing to buy this at $200 but chickened out at $50.

I really, really like $CRCL at $54.

Valuation has been completely reset back to $12B MC.

Everyone was rushing to buy it back at $150-200 but at $54, it's a ghost town. USDC supply still $70B+ and I expect stablecoins to continue growing in usage. https://t.co/R2Habycf7d


I'm sure if you just hold things for the next three years given photonic ramp, it would strongly outperform majority of portfolios

Summary: Long photonics stocks over 3-year horizon; photonic ramp drives strong outperformance despite trimming near-term for profits.

Photonics basket; removed merged/delisted IIVI (now COHR)

Yeah it makes sense to trim a bit and take some profits after the insane rally last two months! Not completely sell all positions though.

For me I do more of active management for my own portfolio.

I’m sure if you just hold things for the next three years given photonic ramp, it would strongly outperform majority of portfolios.

@aleabitoreddit U stated u might trim Photonics? Did I hear that right vs MU Sandisk EWK etc


Summary: Weekend Iran scare = overblown panic; EWY/TSM dips are buying opportunities, oil spike reverses by Monday open, stocks recover and finish next week green.

Weekend Macro playbook prediction:

1. US gonna do something bad to Iran

2. Bunch of videos on X of stuff going up in flames

3. Retail doomposters and Jim Cramer will say "$200 oil" parroting Iran state media over the weekend.

4. People panic sell $EWY or $TSM based on something random like Helium that have little material effect

5. Crude Oil futures spike and stocks drop

6. People glad they sold their shares after seeing impression farming doomposters claim Monday will be the worst day ever of the stock market.

7. People capitulate the rest of their unrelated to Iran stocks overnight

8. US Treasury/Gov pulls black magic and crude oil prices go down by market open

9. Stocks go back up, and people chase to recover their lost positions.

10. Next Week Green


US Treasury/Gov pulls black magic and crude oil prices go down by market open


Stocks go back up, and people chase to recover their lost positions. Next Week Green


Yeah $1B FY 2025 revenue, 91% gross margins (unholy) 40% y/y growth, $1.6B cash no debt. Seems oversold, AI like Opus doesn't replace figma.

Summary: Bullish FIG: strong fundamentals + AI tools like Opus won't displace Figma, stock appears oversold.

@ShortsHoward @charlieliner Yeah $1B FY 2025 revenue, 91% gross margins (unholy) 40% y/y growth, $1.6B cash no debt.

Seems oversold, AI like Opus doesn’t replace figma.

@aleabitoreddit @charlieliner What’s thesis with FIG? Oversold?


Summary: Still holding XLU long; boring multi-year trade, nothing changed in the thesis.

@Darkhawk720 @_stockResearch Nothing's changed with $XLU, it's boring multi-year trade. So I'm personally just sitting on my positions.

@aleabitoreddit @_stockResearch Hi do you think the thesis for $XLU is still in play?


I'm personally cost averaging into SK Hynix and rotating my other names back into memory

Summary: Cost-averaging into SK Hynix and memory broadly; views current volatility as a buying opportunity with mid-term recovery ahead.

I’m personally cost averaging into SK Hynix and rotating my other names back into memory.

US/Australia/Malaysia will fill the LNG gap as memory is critical to America’s AI buildout. Especially so it doesn’t lose to China.

I just see this as a buying opportunity like when everyone panic sold $NVDA the other year. Don’t know how many days this volatility lasts + hard to time the bottom, but mid term I see it recovering.

@aleabitoreddit I started to load today , bought some $KORU, will see the price action of $ewy tomorrow in US session to determine if to load more.
5000 level looks like a solid support for KOSPI.


rotating my other names back into memory. memory is critical to America's AI buildout


Substrates/EML lasers in photonics from $AXTI and $LITE... are those bottlenecks. And they end up individually more profitable

Summary: Long AXTI, LITE, SNDK as critical materials bottlenecks more profitable than crowded shovel-sellers; implicitly bearish on NVDA as overowned.

Markets have got it wrong when they say:

"When Everyone Digs for Gold, Sell Shovels"

You know why?

The real alpha comes from:

Bottlenecking the Shovel Sellers.

Substrates/EML lasers in photonics from $AXTI and $LITE.

to

$SNDK to Sk Hynix for NAND/DRAM are those bottlenecks.

And they end up individually more profitable, than the investors who crowd around shovel sellers like $NVDA.

The saying should go:

"When Everyone Digs for Gold, Profit off the Materials at jacked up prices that the Shovel Sellers need to Sell the Shovels".


$SNDK to Sk Hynix for NAND/DRAM are those bottlenecks. And they end up individually more profitable


more profitable, than the investors who crowd around shovel sellers like $NVDA


Summary: Intraday drop in Samsung and SK Hynix seen as a buying opportunity; pricing power intact with DRAM/NAND hikes offsetting energy costs.

And… there goes all the 10x leverage Samsung and Sk Hynix.

I said earlier that $EWY and KOSPI would be extremely volatile with the new leveraged instruments.

And the best way to profit was off the mispriced volatility. Especially because it’s basically two stocks.

IV will probably be hiked quite a bit up l after the 10% intraday drop.

This seemed mainly macro and liquidity positioning as the drop followed reports of dram/nand price hikes.

The main headwind was energy costs but unlike previous years where this compressed margins, Samsung, SK Hynix have complete pricing power and can pass through costs this time around.

Operating income of the Korean tech giants are strong and seems like an opportunity to buy off all the leveraged degens.


once that's done I think it'll blow past $130

Summary: Long AAOI; ATM overhang temporary, expects price to blow past $130 on capacity-to-revenue undervaluation.

@Taylor_GPT $AAOI $250m ATM at $100.

Structural overhang, but once that’s done I think it’ll blow past $130.

Undervalued relative to capacity -> revenue

@aleabitoreddit Why is $AAOI underperforming?


Summary: Bullish memory trade (SNDK, MU): Phison CEO dismisses YMTC/CXMT flood fears; AI demand structural and exponentially growing.

Interesting comment from Phison's CEO interview was this.

When addressing the rumor that Chinese memory makers (YMTC and CXMT) will flood the market:

Pua says:

"The people saying that are talking in their sleep/dreaming".

$SNDK, $MU, and the memory trade appear to have no shortage in sight.

The memory demand for AI looks structural and exponentially growing.

TLDR of Phison CEO interview on Memory and Investment Framework:

"Toll Collectors":
- Micron ( $MU )
- SK Hynix (000660.KS)
- Samsung Electronics,
- Western Digital ( $WDC )
- $SNDK.

T2:
- $MRVL
- $SIMO
- Phison Electronics

Companies that design the logic/software


Summary: Aquatic defense/mine-clearance contractors named as key beneficiaries of Iran mining Strait of Hormuz; calls it the biggest catalyst of the decade.

Just in: Trump is angered after Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz.

> Iran Places Underwater Mines
> Trump Angry bc Oil
> Urgent need to clear them
> Mine Detection + Clearance Companies = Profit?

If you want to profit off the situation:

Defense companies like $CODA, $KRKNF, $OPTT, $MIND, $EXA, $ESLT and many others stand to benefit.

It's the biggest catalyst of the decade for aquatic defense contractors, given the new news.

Just need to figure out who stands to benefit the most.


Summary: Bullish ETOR and VLN trading near cash (undervalued); bullish NBIS on sum-of-parts mispricing despite ATM dilution.

I have 0 clue. Lot of people see me making tons off thesis posts like $OSS or $AXTI but I do lose money too when I'm wrong.

And I do put my money where my mouth is.

I've had discussions with other analysts and they're all puzzled. $ETOR, $VLN I've identified clear disconnects with the market with both of them trading near cash balance but clearly market doesn't agree with me.

$NBIS makes slightly more sense if they're going through their ATM now, but their operating business is not being priced in with Sum of Parts correctly.

With Nebius, if the MC is still the same at $21B with $7B ARR EOY, then idk.

@aleabitoreddit Even stranger with Israeli stock market ripping over past year and a half and at all-time highs


their operating business is not being priced in with Sum of Parts correctly


Summary: Asymmetric long RDDT: wartime traffic surge + subreddit isolation = advertiser flight to safety + earnings beat vs sandbagged Q1 guidance; PINS/META relative underperformers.

Reddit ( $RDDT ) in fact looks:

Exceptionally Bullish during War.

My thesis is that they will likely blow away next quarter earnings expectations.

Here's what the market missed:

1. Extreme User Engagement during Wartime.

The major two Western outlets during live events: X and $RDDT.

Companies like $PINS likely do not benefit from increased engagement from War and $META may benefit from a tiny uptick.

But everyone flocks to Reddit and X.

-> During a global crisis, millions of frantic, high-intent search queries lead people to Reddit from Google.

-> As well as direct traffic from discussion on what's going on, leading to longer-engagement + ad views + traffic in general.

Elon Musk / X confirmed record usage of the X platform during the initial conflict with Iran.

And confirmed record engagement during the conlifct with Venezuela.

This is likely the same with Reddit.

A lot of this data is not public this month (eg. Similarweb estimates), but it's high confidence, both Reddit also achieved record engagement during this time.

The Venezuela conflict may have led to a short burst in activity, but the Iran conflict is extended and one of the largest ones of the decade.

2. Flight to Safety from Advertisers

The typical view is $META and X have peak engagement, but advertisers pull ads during war.

Especially as $META and X might show massive timelines of different events from Iran conflict + Finance in one feed:

However:

$RDDT is one of the most unique social media platforms as they're isolated with subreddits.

Things from /r/leagueoflegends or /r/wallstreetbets are isolated from /r/iran and /r/worldnews.

3. Reddit Sandbagging earnings

Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $595–$605 million was issued in early February, before the massive traffic anomaly and likely advertiser budget reallocation triggered by the late-February Iran conflict.

My expectation is a larger then normal revenue beat when it comes time to announce earnings.

_

Reddit ( $RDDT ) is an asymmetric long that's actually extremely bullish during wartime, against common assumption that social media is net bearish.

There's been no public earnings history to show this yet (since Reddit was not public during Ukraine conflict).

But my alpha/thesis is for the first time ever:

We'll see Reddit show up as one of the only bullish social media platforms during war.

We'll find out of this is true or not during their earnings.


Companies like $PINS likely do not benefit from increased engagement from War


Summary: Both TTD and RDDT are good recovery longs at current prices.

@HAkbarnataj $TTD and $RDDT are good recovery longs.

However feels like markets just don’t care about software companies growing 20-50% Y/Y anymore?

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on $TTD at current prices?


Summary: Author holds or suggests long positions in IBIT, SNDK, RKLB, POET, and GOOGL as preferred multi-horse portfolio picks.

Nuanced. So typically concentration builds wealth and diversification preserves it rings true.

I generally agree unless all your diversified picks are high beta and correlated. I'm just not sure if $IBIT recovery or $SNDK would go up faster so I bet on multiple horses with $RKLB rockets attached to them.

But usually, yes, the smaller the portfolio is, the more concentration your portfolio should be. If you have $10k, maybe just pick 2-3 of your favorites like $SNDK or $POET (but obviously a tad more risky).

Safe compounding $GOOGL or diversifying with those amounts won't change your life (you would get more working a job). But generally the more your portfolio goes up the less risk you need to take.

@aleabitoreddit For the average portfolio would this not be way too many names? Seems like over diversification no?


I'm just not sure if $IBIT recovery or $SNDK would go up faster so I bet on multiple horses with $RKLB rockets attached to them


bet on multiple horses with $RKLB rockets attached to them


maybe just pick 2-3 of your favorites like $SNDK or $POET


2028 OTM leaps are mispriced at low 40's IV as a call on volatile memory names. And will likely benefit from Vega expansion at current levels.

Summary: Long EWY 2028 OTM leap calls: IV mispriced at low 40s vs realized ~65-70%; SK Hynix/Samsung pass-through structures will keep vol elevated, driving Vega expansion.

Feels like a lot of people misunderstood the DD in this post:

Main point: $EWY IV will likely stay elevated.

Currently realized is probably in the high 60’s, low 70’s.

Long term likely settles ~55% because:

Pass through concentration in SK Hynix and Samsung is enormous despite any re-weighting.

As SK Hynix increases, other top weightings like SK Square (90% of its MC comes from SK Hynix equity since it’s a 20% shareholder) will increase.

Same with Samsung.

It looks like 50% max for them both, but pass through structures balloons that value a lot.

Despite new weights, $EWY will increasingly become a call option on SK Hynix / Samsung as their MCs go up from pass-through structure.

2028 OTM leaps are mispriced at low 40’s IV as a call on volatile memory names.

And will likely benefit from Vega expansion at current levels.

2028 IV for $EWY will likely go much higher (~44% right now).

Realized should be priced around ~65-68%+.

So, 2028 OTM leap call value may double again from volatility Vega Expansion alone.

Most people don’t this but top holdings include:

1. SK Square (#5 concentration). https://t.co/hgaJE15Faz


Summary: AAOI undervalued; models absurd revenue ramp through 2027; hyperscalers buying all optical capacity from AAOI, LITE, COHR years out.

$AAOI looks very undervalued at $6.49B.

If we model ASP and their newest capacity projections today:

Revenue from Capacity:
Q2 2026: ~$312.1M
Q4 2026: ~$1.41B
Q2-2027: ~$1.53B
Q4-2027: ~$1.97B

This is absurd ramp (off ~34-40% est. gross margins).

ASP modeled off (LightCounting, Dell'Oro Group & Yole, pricing for ELSFP modules is the most speculative). And some sell-side models (from firms like Raymond James, B. Riley, Northland Capital, and Goldman Sachs).

Exact contract pricing for massive volume orders is not known, so this is speculative.

But the Q2 volume * ASP estimates actually align with their $378M/month target Q2-2027.

Again, you might be wondering? This is capacity, doesn't translate into revenue right?

Hyperscalers from $AMZN to $MSFT are buying any capacity any of these companies from $LITE to $COHR can make, years out.

This includes $AAOI from their former earnings call.


Hyperscalers from $AMZN to $MSFT are buying any capacity any of these companies from $LITE to $COHR can make, years out


any of these companies from $LITE to $COHR can make, years out


Summary: Bullish AXTI as a hidden beneficiary of the photonics ramp.

@MrThomG_ I would be more bullish on $AXTI if Martin Shkreli joined the board to show em how it's done when you have a monopoly.

But yeah AXT is a hidden beneficiary on photonics ramp.

@aleabitoreddit $AXTI in that supply chain too tho


Summary: Names AAOI as the most direct play on transceiver demand surge, citing 10x revenue growth projection.

@PhotonCap Yes! The most direct play is $AAOI, they just dropped a $SNDK-style earnings projecting 10x revenue growth.

But of course there's going to be other beneficiaries not priced in too upstream as you mentioned.

Since $AAOI's explosive revenue projections signal a paradigm shift in transceiver demand, investors who missed the initial rally should look upstream at the broader value chain.


Summary: Bullish MTRN as a potential hidden beneficiary of thermal/material chokepoint as NVDA Rubin deployments push to 2000W in 2027.

There's an interesting company on here that happens to own ~25-30% of this semi-grade material supply chain in the world.

Thermal is probably an issue, so might be a potential material composite chokepoint with $NVDA architectures in 2027.

There was no issue with H200s (<1000W) but as you get higher to 2000w with Rubin deployments, might be a hidden beneficiary of material transitions.

Personal TLDR research.

Western supply chain bottlenecks like $LPTH and $AXTI:

$MTRN - Beryllium (Spor Mountain)
$HALEU - Uranium | SMRs
$ESE - Space fuel tanks (through Vacco)
$GHM - Vacuum Ejectors & Surface Condensers | U.S. Navy
$FEIM - Atomic Clocks
$OPXS - Light


Summary: Author disagrees with parent's overvalued call: SIVE still undervalued vs $5-15B+ private comps; also bullish POET as an overlooked play.

Nah, I think $SIVE is still extremely undervalued relatively speaking.

Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, celestial, and others all probably command $5-$15B+ valuations.

Not even including small guys like $POET or pluggables like $JBL.

Sivers lasers likely power them all, and they’re primary/sole source for a lot.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting company but insanely overvalued if you’re entering now.


I'm actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks… Probably my favorite US-based photonics long stock now that I own.

Summary: Long AAOI at $13B MC on laser bottlenecks, potential NVDA/AMD supply agreements, and $471M H1 2027 revenue ramp; author's top US photonics holding.

I’m actually even more bullish on $AAOI at $13B MC given all the recent laser bottlenecks…

Than I was back at $2B or $6B.

I also think markets missed the analyst note around potential long term supply agreements with $NVDA or $AMD.

If they’re projecting $471M in H1 2027… that’s absurd ramp.

But of course the $600M ATM is a short term overhang.

Just a matter of waiting time? Given it’s more about keeping up with demand…

So more of a matter of how much they can make.

Probably my favorite US-based photonics long stock now that I own.

@aleabitoreddit You’re delusional if you think it’s undervalued at 6b mcap


Summary: Long HPS.A, SNDK, and LITE on multi-year order backlogs into 2028, near-guaranteed revenue, and likely margin expansion despite macro volatility.

The nice thing about multi-year bottlenecks from:

$HPS.A to $SNDK to $LITE

Is that you can sleep a easier despite market volatility like today.

Knowing demand will be extreme even 1 year...

Even if Trump wants to nuke Bikini Bottom and other companies might be more impacted:

-> One has a huge market share over Transformers
-> One has huge market share over NAND
-> One has huge market share over EML/OCS.

And the one thing in common is that they're all likely backlogged on orders into 2028.

Signaling near-guaranteed fundamental revenue and likely margin expansion into the next year.

It's H1 2026 now.


Summary: AEHR could reach $10B market cap within 18 months, implying significant upside from current levels.

@Yolo365247isme @raghavrmehta $10B MC on $AEHR seems possible in 1 1/2 years.

@aleabitoreddit @raghavrmehta What about aehr?


I'm long the entire supply chain from substrates to foundries to osats

Summary: Long the full photonics supply chain — substrates, foundries, OSATs — on scalability demand.

Photonics supply chain basket from substrates to OSATs

@dontbuytops Photonics is the solution to scalability.

If we’re talking about mass production of photonics like EML/DFB stuff, there’s bottlenecks for sure.

Which is why I’m long the entire supply chain from substrates to foundries to osats .

@aleabitoreddit Don't you think photonics could have a scalability problem soon?


Summary: Bullish SOI on downstream foundry capacity squeeze driving upstream substrate demand; TSEM's $290M prepayment signals tight supply benefiting both names.

Just in case you were wondering $TSEM reported extra prepayment ($290M) to secure capacity.

Downstream foundry capacity squeeze directly translates to an immense demand for raw substrates upstream with $SOI (more revenue).

My optical picks are very interconnected. https://t.co/4vIAvS1jOl

@aleabitoreddit Is $SOI already facing substrate supply tightness?
If CPO scale-up accelerates, will Tower sign a longer-term strategic supply agreement with them, or stick to the spot market for flexibility?


Summary: Long FLNC: two hyperscaler agreements should drive massive rerating for the small energy company.

@AorakiTrading Yeah, I wouldn’t have taken positions if they didn’t get 2 hyperscaler agreements.

One large $MSFT contract as seen with $NBIS would likely cause a massive rerating for a small energy company like $FLNC.

But they had 2, not just 1

@aleabitoreddit People have been watching this for a while but everyone I know has actively avoided it due to how bad the margins are and no path to improve them.

That backlog is impressive relative to market cap though, similar to what $RKLB had at $4.


you're not buying into a $6B ATM printed and sold into rallies with $IREN

Summary: Bearish IREN on $6B ATM dilution; bullish NBIS for long-term share price appreciation.

@mwallacegreen3 Glad to hear it… yeah it’s like a weight lifted off your shoulders that you’re not buying into a $6B ATM printed and sold into rallies with $IREN.

With other stocks like $NBIS you can actually benefit from long term share price appreciation.

@aleabitoreddit Based on your dilution warning   I dumped IREN and added to NBIS… And boy-oh-boy am I glad I acted when I did. You saved my arse 🙌


With other stocks like $NBIS you can actually benefit from long term share price appreciation


Just look at $MRVL Celestial ( $SIVE is the light source at ~$290m ) as an example. Marvell bought it for $5.5B. ($3.25B + 2.25B milestones). 2028 expectations: $500m revenue 2029 expectations: $1B revenue. This is massive TAM expansion and revenue acceleration.

Summary: SIVE is author's #1 pick on CPO/ELS/CW laser supercycle ramp 2027+; also bullish MRVL on massive TAM expansion via Celestial acquisition.

Just look at $MRVL Celestial ( $SIVE is the light source at ~$290m ) as an example.

Marvell bought it for $5.5B. ($3.25B + 2.25B milestones).

2026/2027 expectations: 0 revenue, -$50m loss

2028 expectations: $500m revenue
2029 expectations: $1B revenue.

This is massive TAM expansion and revenue acceleration.

This is just one of Sivers customer on top of O-Net, Ayar, other undisclosed CPO players, with Jabil bridging volume ramp and Win with yields.

Random retail users with no understanding of photonics… are doing the equivalent of modeling Celestial at $50m because of no CPO revenue in 2025 2026.

And because it’s operating at a net loss instead of looking at the massive ramp 2027 onward.

$SIVE is my #1 pick for frontrunning the next architectural supercycles at the very beginning for ELS TAM expansion + CPO + CW laser chokepoints.

If you want a later stage pick, you can look at $LITE that already ran 3800%.

Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE.

For $AXTI:

Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about.

Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and


I'd expect a lot of revenue projection hikes next quarter. It's more about looking Jabil or Ayar, then seeing that scale flow back to Sivers once those ramps.

Summary: Long Sivers Semi as sole-source laser provider for Jabil's 1.6T LRO; expects significant revenue projection hikes next quarter as customer ramps scale back.

Sivers Semiconductors on Nasdaq Stockholm as SIVE.ST

You already have $JBL as one example, confirming excessive demand with $SIVE expected sole source laser provider for their 1.6T LRO.

Don’t really have concerns there. It’s more about looking Jabil or Ayar, then seeing that scale flow back to Sivers once those ramps.

And I’d expect a lot of revenue projection hikes next quarter.

@aleabitoreddit Revenue pipeline obviously very different to backlog though. Any concerns about them not confirming any order backlog or any details on any specific large orders at all Serenity?


Summary: Author holds ongoing longs in US stocks including INTC and NBIS; list unchanged, letting winners run.

People keep asking:

Hey why do have new longs with Taiwan/EU stocks recently like $LPK or Foci?

And not much with new US ones?

It's partly because the list of US stocks I've liked from $INTC to $NBIS hasn't changed.

You can always just let the ones you like grow. https://t.co/ostZWjOAAm

Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why:

1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security
2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count
3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai
4. $COHR - They


Summary: Still long-term bullish on AAOI despite $600M ATM offering.

@MatteoDeDycker $600m ATM, still long term bullish on $AAOI

@aleabitoreddit What’s going on with AAOI?


Summary: Names Auros (322310) as highest-upside long for hybrid bonding / HBM5 theme.

Auros 322310 likely KOSDAQ-listed; retry with .KQ suffix

@gsaikrishna95 Towa is still a chokepoint when there’s hybrid bonding.

Auros (322310) is probably the highest upside long for that.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think as the hybrid bonding comes in with Hbm5 , we should slowly rotate Towa into names like $BESI ?


Summary: Still bullish on Shunsin, Fittech, Win Semi despite recent correction; nothing fundamentally changed.

Shunsin Technology listed on TWSE as 6451.TW

@miraclemaster07 A lot of Taiwanese stocks like shunsin, fittech, win semi and others corrected recently. It's just normal volatility, nothing's fundamentally changed, still like them all.

@aleabitoreddit Agreed. Just thought to ask you about fittech. Do you have any comment on the recent price action and do you still like it?


Summary: Holds long position in AXTI as a quasi-monopoly on InP substrates, now on White House shortage list amid US-China trade talks.

I literally called out a national vulnerability in the AI supply chain.

Then went long on the quasi-monopoly in $AXTI.

While everyone was doubting me.

Guess what anon: it’s on the White House shortage list and one of the major talking points of US-China trade talks 6M later. https://t.co/mVX0vJ5EuD

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:

1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)

Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.

Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and https://t.co/8mqrgONJbb


Summary: All three US photonics plays expected to benefit from AI-driven demand surge in the photonics supercycle.

We're now in the photonics supercycle.

The trio from $COHR, $LITE, $AAOI in America are expected to perform well from a surge in demand.

New Report:

" Lumentum is experiencing a surge in demand from the artificial intelligence sector, with its order pipeline now fully booked through 2028 "


Summary: Bullish on neoclouds NBIS and IREN as the way to play near-term hyperscaler power demand, with potential to become the next AWS.

@futureproof_inv Hyperscalers need power today... not in 5 years time.

That's why neoclouds like $NBIS or $IREN hit that sweet spot where they have a short time period to grow a defensible moat and become the next AWS.

Short term power/land is not a defensible moat.

@aleabitoreddit Dont you think that SpaceX will dominate, with infinite compute in space?

They say they will be vertically integrated chip (terafab) -> satellite-> launch.

Infinite electricity, space, customers


Summary: Bearish SLNH: $200M market cap facing $1B dilution and $500M active ATM makes equity appreciation impossible; warns retail against buying.

I get angry when people are actively trying to screw over retail investors for their own personal gain.

Absolutely disgusting behavior leading people to buy a $200m MC stock in $SLNH with $1 BILLION DILUTION and a $500,000,000 ACTIVE ATM.

Literally makes 0 sense if you care about equity appreciation.

@aleabitoreddit I sincerely enjoy reading both your bullish theses of obscure, foreign stocks nobody has ever heard about as well as stocks that a lot have heard about but are fundamentally flawed.
Thank you for being a true signal through the noise


Summary: Holds NVDA puts; bearish directional bet via options.

@aleabitoreddit What stocks/tickers did you buy from your doomsday ETF ?


So just because a $146m private fund went public doesn't mean there should be a multi-billion dollar retail wealth transfer? ... that move just seems predatory when there's already a valuation NAV disconnect

Summary: Bearish BOT: trading at 4x NAV with $2B ATM facility; the premium is a retail wealth transfer with no fundamental backing.

$BOT is still trading at 4x NAV.

With a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM.

Even after the 21% drop.

So now it’s ~$600M MC, off $146M in private assets.

Then off those assets, they own ~$37M of Figure.

Which you’re essentially buying at $160B valuations while the leading humanoid maker in Unitree is IPOing at $6B.

So just because a $146m private fund went public doesn’t mean there should be a multi-billion dollar retail wealth transfer?

Maybe the fund had good intentions?

But idk after the $2B equity financing facility, that move just seems predatory when there’s already a valuation NAV disconnect.

$BOT is the biggest red flag.

NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92.

You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B.

Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail.

Not the appreciation or underlying https://t.co/szR6rrxD68


Summary: Bullish SIVE (still rising) and AXTI as supercycle names being accumulated by institutions after retail frontrunning.

This is true.

A few of bank analysts got passive aggressive when I called out $SOI back at $40 and it rose 125% since then.

Same with $SIVE and it’s risen a few hundred percent (and keeps going up)

But these same institutions are the one buying afterward on $IQE to $AXTI.

Usually institutions have silent accumulation periods blocks over months to not raise the price + accumulate the float off retail.

Then tell retail investors after it’s risen a lot and they own 5% of the company.

But if markets price that in a lot faster, institutions are forced to buy a lot higher.

Which is basically frontrunning institutions on supercycle names.

This is funny, when retail investors are front running institutions they call it a bubble.
What are they trying to do? Cause Chaos in market to buy Semi stocks cheaper as a lot of has been discovered.
@aleabitoreddit

$SIVE $LPKF

$AXTI $AAOI


They're all critical to American infrastructure, not exactly parabolic growth names… but great compounders

Summary: Long US infrastructure compounders (AMSC, PLPC, ATKR, HPS.A) on Defense Production Act tailwind and strong HPS.A earnings with 94.6% backlog growth.

Just putting it out there:

A lot of these names from $PLPC to $AMSC are doing decently well from two weeks ago.

$HPS.A (my transformers thesis) earnings also came out today and it’s very solid:

$264M CAD vs $236.3M CAD (strong beat) and backlog increased 94.6% Y/Y which is the leading indicator of a demand for these names.

They’re all critical to American infrastructure, not exactly parabolic growth names… but great compounders.

Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago.

To expand on domestic infra.

Implicit beneficiaries were:

Transmission & Advanced Conductors:
$AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics
$PLPC - advanced conductors
$ATKR - transmission https://t.co/KxzINqBVjP


Summary: Doomsday ETF: short financials/Nasdaq/LCID/NVDA, long oil/gas and volatility on Middle East escalation scenario.

The Serenity Doomsday ETF:

25% | $FAZ
25% | $GUSH
20%| $LCID Short
10% | $SQQQ
10% $UVIX
10% | $NVDA Puts

Rationale:
$FAZ / 3x short financial - Private Market liquidity play on Middle Eastern capital abandoning private markets if all their oil fields get blown apart.

$GUSH / 2x Long US OIl and Gas - Global crude prices that will likely skyrocket, and American producers reap record windfall in profits.

$SQQQ / 3x short Nasdaq - Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft forced selling if liquidity gets pulled.

$LCID Short / 60% owned by Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund. If the Saudis suffer from liquidity shock, there goes Lucid.

$UVIX/ 2x long volatility - If there's black swan events, volatility goes up.

$NVDA Puts - Last bastion for the $SPY as largest weighting. If capex gets pulled, index sells off will Nvidia go down the hardest.

I only see this scenario if US sends ground troops to Iran and Iran blows everything around it up.

Let's pray for Taco Tuesday.


$GUSH / 2x Long US OIl and Gas - Global crude prices that will likely skyrocket, and American producers reap record windfall in profits.


$SQQQ / 3x short Nasdaq - Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft forced selling if liquidity gets pulled.


$LCID Short / 60% owned by Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund. If the Saudis suffer from liquidity shock, there goes Lucid.


$UVIX/ 2x long volatility - If there's black swan events, volatility goes up.


$NVDA Puts - Last bastion for the $SPY as largest weighting. If capex gets pulled, index sells off will Nvidia go down the hardest.


Summary: Bullish Shunsin as undiscovered backdoor into NVDA's optical/CPO supply chain via Foxconn's exclusive rack-scale assembler role; market hasn't priced the connection yet.

Just an FYI: I don't need to post something every day about the names I own.

However, I did miss this with Shunsin (6451):

Foxconn picked by $NVDA as exclusive rack-scale supplier for Groq accelerator.

This is highly positive for Shunsin (Foxconn's optical packing arm).

So ShunSin's CPO and optical packaging basically backdoored Nvidia's next-gen supply chain with this news.

Markets just haven't realized this connection yet (and it's on disposition, so frozen for most).

The article explicitly notes that Foxconn is integrating these systems "including ... networking."

Bc Foxconn is the exclusive assembler, they'll vertically integrate and likely use ShunSin's optical packaging solutions into the design, bypassing ShunSin's need for  networking contract directly from Nvidia.

This is what I meant by Shunsin is literally a free piggy back ride to $NVDA CPO ecosystem. Foxconn is massive.

And you're getting the leading player in Nvidia's optical supply chain for a lower valuation than $LWLG lol.

@aleabitoreddit You gone quite on shunsin


Summary: Long AAOI mid-to-long term; author has conviction it can execute and is worth materially more than current market cap.

And... $AAOI +25.43% from $81 -> $101.26 off no material news.

Maybe the Edgewater comment about "optical demand growing exponentially" helped a bit too.

But few lessons to learn:

- don't live on borrowed conviction.
- Jane Street adds unnecessary volatility.
- If you can't sleep at night, you're sizing portfolio concentration wrong.

It's unfortunate when retail liquidates their positions at the bottom for no fundamental reason. Then on the way back up, they no longer have positions.

Could always keep ping ponging between $80 and $120, who knows.

But mid-long term, I have conviction $AAOI can execute, should be worth much higher than the current MC.

And... this is why I don't like Jane Street owning the same stocks I do like $AAOI.

They trade volatility, especially with retail favorite names and trigger stop losses/panic.

If you know what you own though:

$6.69B for a US company that makes the entire transceiver supply https://t.co/juZjrIT7OF


Highly bullish implications today for Shunsin (6451). Was just very early but this looks to be the start of a massive growth curve.

Summary: Strongly bullish Shunsin (6451): Foxconn CPO volume revision + NVDA shipments confirm start of massive growth curve at its Vietnam facility.

Highly bullish implications today for Shunsin (6451).

Which is Foxconn’s SiPH and CPO packaging/test arm.

-> UDN reported upward revision in volume and Foxconn began shipping cpo switch racks to $NVDA

->  CPO products are being produced in Foxconn's Vietnam plant…

Guess which company has been aggressively expanding its Bac Giang, Vietnam facility for CPO for the past few years?

As I said before Shunsin is basically a free hard-carry by Foxconn.

Was just very early but this looks to be the start of a massive growth curve.


Summary: SIVE thesis intact and undervalued; expects MRVL to source directly from Sivers, potentially boosting SIVE valuation via T1 direct relationships.

Nope, $SIVE thesis is fully in-tact and I still think it's undervalued.

Lot of it was based on $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap into CPO ramp.

But having $AMD CPO go with $GFS de-risked the company quite a massive amount. Then there's $AAPL SiPH markets don't know about yet.

I'm honestly expecting $MRVL to buy directly from Sivers now like what $JBL did.  But just multi-source + vertically integrate the packaging IP side of thing after buying lasers.

That actually might increase the valuations more long term (direct to T1 like Jabil, Marvell) than one-hop through a packaging partner.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for consistently sharing … must be tough having a lot of people ping you lol

You think this causes any delays / issues to you $sive thesis long term given the delay to the celestial roadmap?

Looking to position on $sive on market open tomorrow


Summary: Expects HIMS to recover to at least $40 over time.

@realstockfox I think it at least recovers to $40 over time? We’ll see

@aleabitoreddit Yes $HIMS is one of my top positions. Been patiently waiting for it to catch some momentum


Summary: Optical ground infrastructure bottleneck creates longs across station operators and photonics hardware makers; RF names as fallback if optical mesh fails.

The Space Bottleneck: Optical ground infrastructure.

- "The industry has built roughly 10 percent of the optical ground infrastructure"

Now, who are the beneficiaries?

- $EOS.ASX (operating stations at Mt. Stromlo equipped with "adaptive optics.")
- $SKPJF (TYO: 9412) |  $NTTYY | Space Compass is JV with NTT and satellite operator SKY Perfect JSAT
- $SGBAF - Works with Cailabs to for terrestrial optical terminals
- $SAFRY - Manufacturer of the optical ground stations

Then if it fails fallback would be names like:
$VSAT, $GILT

Analysis states that if the optical mesh fails due to clouds or lack of stations, the architecture "falls back to Ka-band RF links".

-> Near term capital flows to Relay Providers (Kepler, Space Compass, General Atomics).

-> Long term structural winners will be the photonics hardware manufacturers (Cailabs, Safran).

-> Then companies like SpaceX wins by default. Many are private.

"This infrastructure deficit is no longer just an engineering problem but a direct threat to a major White House [Golden Dome] policy objective"

Orbital laser communications market are hard-capped until physical ground infra scales, hence the current bottleneck.

But not quite sure if capex is to the scale of hyperscaler AI buildouts yet to benefit these companies enough.


$NTTYY | Space Compass is JV with NTT and satellite operator SKY Perfect JSAT


$SGBAF - Works with Cailabs to for terrestrial optical terminals


$SAFRY - Manufacturer of the optical ground stations -> Long term structural winners will be the photonics hardware manufacturers


fallback would be names like: $VSAT, $GILT


I'd rather go long on $BIRD here than $BIRD

Summary: Prefers long BIRD over IREN; implied bearish on IREN relative to BIRD.

@daniel_koss I'd rather go long on $BIRD here than $IREN.

@aleabitoreddit I wouldn't be so quick to jump to conclusions. They have around the same amount of top tier ai factories as IREN (0).

It's a joke, don't kill me guys 😂


I'd rather go long on $BIRD here than $IREN


Summary: Long SIVE, LPK, AAOI, IQE as photonics/advanced-packaging supply-chain chokepoints set to be materially higher in 3-4 years on AI-driven optical supercycle.

When I see comments like this (and there are a lot) from retail investors:

I immediately think they lack the technical depth.

I'll walk through each one from $SIVE to $LPK:

1. Photonics TAM goes from $14B -> $154B In just two years time, and it's likely going to keep scaling past 2030 as it's the next generation architecture of choice.

It's not going away in 1 year. It's not going away in 3 years, which is why $LITE premiums keep going higher since they're backlogged into 2028.

$SIVE supplies CW lasers and is highly tethered to CPO and now pluggable transcivers for 1.6T and 3.2...

For expected companies like $JBL, Ayar, Lightmatter, Lightelligence, $POET, $MRVL Celestial, and $AMD.

This isn't a "trade", it's the core chokepoint and IP holder for the next generation of photonics.

And it's a comfortable hold for the next few years as they scale to become the next $LITE.

The risk I personally see (since they're already qualified with so many players), it's mainly how much TAM they can capture of the overall optical supercycle. (And potential risks with Win Semi volume ramp, but Win is massive so I can sleep tightly there).

As just supplying lasers isn't enough to justify valuation.

It's TAM expansion downward into making the entire ELS or entire pluggable transceiver that makes these laser companies so valuable.

Then afterward, they can vertically integrating upward for gross margin expansion upward like $COHR into doing the laser fabs or even substrate level.

And that in my view is a very asymmetric risk/reward ratio as we've already seen this done with $LITE as they went from $2B to $80B.

 2. $LPK - Is the purest exposure, without the messy financials of SKC Absolics, as the next advanced packaging shift for glass substrates.

Almost every single major semi company from $INTC to Samsung are adopting glass substrates.

$LPK is basically $ASML of this chokepoint, since they supply to ~80% of the global players currently.

Yes, there's "trade cycles" for equipment suppliers like $ASML, where if there's more foundry capex, ASML scales up. But if there's downturns, these tend to perform poorly, and don't capture all the volume ramp that happens after.

However, if the MC is $650m and they're making $100-200M, revenue per costumer volume ramped, the amount they make from the glass substrate cycle will likely exceed current valuations.

And they'll have baseline fundamentals (as more companies adopt the packaging shift), that keeps their valuation up.

It's just a waiting game for volume ramp at this point.

3. $AAOI - This is literally $INTC but for America + Photonics. It's like saying Intel is not a long term investment.

Guess where all your optical transcivers are made?

China. Thailand. Malaysia. If you look at Innolight, Eoptolink, $FN, and others.

AOI is building the largest Made in America supply chains for both CW laser fab, as well as 800g, 1.6T assembly.

Yes, there are pluggable cycle ups and downs to this as well. There's going to be a wave for 1.6T next year, then CPO cannibalizes pluggables down the road.

But since they make the entire supply chain in house, they have extreme optionality for other segments. And like $NVDA older gen-GPUs, there's going to be sovereign DC requirements for older gen pluggables from names like $AAOI.

It's likely going to keep rising as it hits that $400m+/month revenue target H2 2026.

There's just a lot of different short term volatility along the way like the $600m dilution.

4. $IQE - ??? It's one of the most important players in the Western word for epiwafers.

$MTSI went out of their way to pay off IQE's debt because they can't have them going under. $IQE is also supplying to $LITE.

The world is currently bottlenecked both on the epiwafer level from Landmark comments and InP substrate levels.

Their financials were track but the raw book value, and value they hold to the entire Western supply chain... completely justifies their valuation. And other optical companies will not let their core upstream supply chain go under.

As these tens of millions worth of materials would screw up tens of billions worth of downstream products.

Again photonics is the next generation architecture required to scale AI. It's not Quantum where it's just "In development".

It's literally here and the architecture of choice by $NVDA.

I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time.

People who think it's one and done in 3 months time  "only because I mentioned it" don't know what they're talking about.

Institutions would have bought up the name eventually (like Point 72 on $IQE) and retail would only find out after their valuations are 600% higher.

Should really do the research before adding comments like these:

These are all forward growth companies that require in-depth supply chain knowledge.

This is my current portfolio

As I said, I wouldn't sell any positions

And I’ve kept my word, the money for the new position in $PENG does not come from my existing investments

At the moment, I don’t see better opportunities in the market than what is already in my portfolio https://t.co/r0hgEczvaT


I would not be surprised if all of these are a lot higher in 3-4 years time


Summary: Author is long TSEM and sees it as a $22B+ stock, implying significant further upside.

I still find it funny $TSEM was flat the entire year to date.

I go long and now it’s close to doubling in 3 weeks.

This is a $22B+ stock BTW (close to $NBIS size).

Maybe institutions started copy trading? https://t.co/kUqw9b6Ksk

I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics.

My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi.

Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week:

I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst.

Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T https://t.co/Au3HYKNm7V


Summary: Still long Shunsin despite being down; expects it to outperform over the next year as Foxconn's CPO optical/testing arm.

@GeorgeMakro91 Yep! I get definitely get things wrong on short term timeframes too.

I mentioned Shunsin April 12th, so 13 days ago as Foxconn's CPO optical/testing arm. I'm down too on that (sadge), but I expect it to outperform over the next year.

@aleabitoreddit Its okay some of us have Shunsin stock in our portfolio to remind us that you are human :p (30% down..sob)


Summary: Still bullish MRVL on MSFT Maia custom AI inference and GOOGL revenue visibility past 2028.

@StocksAREnuts I liked $MRVL back at $80 and even here, mainly because of $MSFT Maia.

But having $GOOGL as a likely customer for revenue visibility past 2028 helps a lot too. They're really milking that Celestial acquisition.

@aleabitoreddit Like already mentioned in several posts $MRVL is a must-have for custom AI inference and photonics. They sit at the very core position in this AI revolution. S&P 500 inclusion shouldn‘t be too far away.


Summary: Soft bullish lean on Robinhood after gold card product reveal.

Woah, the $HOOD gold card is sexy.

Long Robinhood? https://t.co/Sth8jBHnG9


Summary: MRVL benefits long-term via vertical integration; SIVE, MTSI, LITE benefit as direct laser suppliers to MRVL.

@O_bhaina $MRVL benefits long term by vertically integrating the packaging process.

They will likely just make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI, and maybe $LITE is my guess.

@aleabitoreddit Who will get the order instead? Who will benefit?


make a deal and buy lasers directly from $SIVE, $MTSI


$FORM, $KEYS, $ASE, and $ATEYY are popular ones in this bottleneck eg. optical alignment

Summary: Long FORM, KEYS, ASE, ATEYY, AEHR as plays on CPO/SiPh testing bottleneck ahead of mass order ramp by 2026.

Digitimes: Taiwan tackles CPO testing bottlenecks to scale SiPh for AI data centers.

Huge. Emphasis. on: "CPO and Silicon Photonics bottleneck" + "Testing."

$FORM, $KEYS, $ASE, and $ATEYY are popular ones ones in this bottleneck eg. optical alignment.

Then there's $AEHR for exposure to SipH yields/testing bottlenecks.

Forecasts show that by 2026, over 50% of data center transceiver sales will come from silicon photonics (SiPh) modules.

Right now, in 2026, there's quite still a few qualification cycles:

But expect mass order ramp to hit anytime.


$AEHR for exposure to SiPh yields/testing bottlenecks


Summary: Long LITE and CPO names broadly on supply-demand imbalance; CPO scale-up cited as largest early-stage growth driver.

Early? It's at the very beginning, and everyone gets to frontrun the next major supercycle.

$LITE literally went out and said there's an incredible supply demand imbalance for CPO. And that scale up CPO is their largest single growth driver that's still at its infancy...

This is incredibly bullish for CPO names.


Summary: Frontrun CPO/SiPH names ahead of H2 2026 ramp; names SIVE, Win Semi, TSEM, SOI as plays on CPO mass production starting this year.

$NVDA is driving CPO, extremely, extremely hard.

As seen with investments in $MRVL, $LITE, and $COHR.

But, what's interesting is: CPO timelines are also happening way earlier than expected.

New report:

" $ASE Reportedly to Break Ground on Six New Plants in 2026, CPO Mass Production Expected to Begin This Year "

"He also revealed for the first time that mass production of CPO is expected to begin this year"

Probably a good time to frontrun CPO related names like $SIVE (lasers), Win Semi (foundry), $TSEM (foundry), $SOI (substrates), and others around now, before ramp really picks up.

The demand curve goes up exponentially all the way past 2029+, and I'm sure they'll break many projections.

But basically, I was talking about frontrunning CPO/SiPH names before OFC/GTC.

Turned out I was right on timing again?

CPO Ramp now looks like it's beginning H2 2026, get ready.


Summary: 85% long overall but warns drawn-out Middle East war would be very bearish via supply chain/funding disruptions; AAOI and LITE seen as outperformers; NVDA and AAPL vulnerable.

I'm still long on markets (now 85% long, now 15% cash/hedges).

Even during wartime, I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform.

However...

The World is largely interconnected now.

The current administration might not realize the severity/fragility of upstream supply chains.

They might look at $AAPL "Made in America".

or  $TSLA "Made in America" but if you look at the source for Tesla Humanoids:

-> It's in China. Actuator materials stem from Russia feedstock. Materials come from partners in Canada.

-> For Starlink, massive amount of supply chains stem from Win Semi Taiwan to companies in Korea.

For where the funding from OpenAI, private equities, megacap, and others come from:

-> Large part of it comes from UAE, Middle East, and others (that might need to pull out liquidity) as their oil fields get blown up.

Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish.

I was initially expecting the "Shock and Awe" and US to claim victory and for short term War shock to be bought back.

But I would not encourage US to head toward a drawn out War.

This especially is not good for Asian partners (SK, Japan) or our allies in Europe either.

The main beneficiaries of War are:
#1: Israel
#2: Russia

The rest of the World, including the US, are getting dragged down from War.

It looks like "Oil/Energy prices going up is good for US":

But it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on.

@BillAckman This is vastly underestimating second, third, fourth order effects of supply chains and the energy crisis.

If Iran blows up a lot of oil fields in UAE and the Middle East and causes disruptions.

Lot of institutions over there largely funding US private equities, megacap, and


I expect many names from $AAOI to $LITE to outperform


Extended disruptions (US ground invasion) for spanning multiple months, is very bearish... it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on


it takes down a lot of supply chains that the hyperscalers from $NVDA to even $AAPL relies on