Summary: Long GLW; holds positions in glass core substrate names with 2027 as the commercialization inflection point for advanced packaging.

Digitimes: $GLW leads glass core substrate vs. KCC and LX Glass

"Glass core substrates ... are key to next-generation advanced semiconductor packaging".

On top of its structural importance, the commercialization timeline for glass core packaging seems to be accelerating as well. We're close to H2 and 2027 is probably the inflection point.

I do have positions in the glass core names upstream, but recent news confirms the importance.


Summary: AI capex spend rally expected to last at least 1 more year, benefiting all major OpenAI counterparties named.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

OpenAI is the tech equivalent of Iran.

They would have caused so much contagion - like Iran sending drones to all their neighbors - with funding they didn’t have….

From $MSFT compute backlog, $ORCL Stargate, $AMD deals, $NVDA deals, $CRWV deals, $AMZN deals. SoftBank deals.

Deals with private companies like Cerebras and many others.

So much so, that if they went down, so would a huge part of what gave these companies their valuations.

OpenAI raised a whopping $122B, my guess is partly weaponizing this contagion like what Iran is doing to the Strait.

So now the AI capex spend rally is likely to last another 1 year min.

They’re the first to start the AI rally; and if they go under, at this point they’ll be the one to pop the bubble.


Summary: Bullish INTC; author is a fan, citing US semiconductor sovereignty and subsidized capex path to profitability.

@Adnan_M01 I’m a fan of $INTC now and that was the very first company I worked at.

America needs to secure sovereignty over its advanced semiconductor supply chains.

Part of that is subsidizing the capex until profitability.

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on $INTC? I am holding it since 20s and added a bit on its way. Thinking to add more around here.


Summary: Bearish IREN on massive $6B dilution; bullish NBIS as a derisked play alongside ORCL and MSFT.

How are there people still long on an F-tier Neocloud like $IREN.

Amid a $6,000,000,000 dilution?

When $NBIS is up there with $ORCL and $MSFT looking derisked? https://t.co/vIdzdk4Hqi


$NBIS is up there with $ORCL and $MSFT looking derisked

industry='Internet Content & Information'


It's an endless dilution machine just because they secured power. I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing.

Summary: Short IREN as a dilution machine with no real NVDA funding; long NBIS as the superior neocloud with actual Nvidia equity backing.

As I said before $IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS.

$NVDA didn’t give $IREN funding yet.

So IREN needs to figure out how to buy enough GPUs to monetize 5GW capacity through their 6B ATM and other means.

It’s an endless dilution machine just because they secured power.

I call $IREN holders 0 IQ because they just buy in it to get diluted without understanding nuances of financing.

Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds.

While Nvidia got a free no-risk purchase agreement for allowing $IREN to use their logo.

$IREN is basically a marketing company at this point, while the other Neoclouds actually allow equity appreciation.

I still am bearish on $IREN.

Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up.

However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes.

So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 https://t.co/bERp6GLRac


$IREN is basically dogsht compared to $NBIS. Nvidia actually gave $NBIS funds.


Summary: Long SIVE to $3B near-term / $10B+ next year as laser chokepoint supplier for CPO/1.6T optical; LITE stalled by capacity constraints.

I didn’t say it should be valued at $10B+ today.

I said I expected $SIVE to be around ~$3B if they were listed on US markets. And could be $10B+ next year

Since they likely are the laser supplier to $JBL, $MRVL, $AMD, Ayar, onet(els), Lightmatter, $POET and many others for CPO or 1.6T optical transceivers.

And high confidence work with $AAPL on SiPH for their consumer devices.

CPO overall tam goes from 0 to $91B in the next two years from GS report.

Sivers supplies to major players, and captures overflow from $LITE getting stalled out by capacity allocations from $NVDA and volume ramps over 2027.

Then they just need to pull a $LITE $COHR then vertically integrate IP downstream by doing the full ELS by buying packaging IP or more optical engine IP.

But that starts off by owning the laser chokepoint which they do now

@aleabitoreddit I genuinely don’t understand how $Sive can be valued at 10+ Billion $ like you claim.

Can you elaborate a bit on your thesis??


Summary: Endorses DRAM ETF as a solid way to get memory exposure, especially for those without access to foreign stocks.

If you want exposure to memory, $DRAM is a genuinely great ETF.

I normally don't praise ETFs, but this is solid.

1. $MU - 24.63%
2. Samsung - 24.11%
3. SK Hynix - 23.08%
4. $SNDK  - 4.9%
5. Kioxia - 4.86%
6. $WDC - 4.77%
7. Nanya - 3.89%
8. Winbond - 2.4%

Disclosure: Friends over at @roundhill did reach out about the launch, but I'm not getting paid to say this (just in case you think this random post is sponsored, it's not).

Just a genuinely great ETF for memory exposure if you don't have access to foreign stocks.

And I’d encourage more institutions to make ETFs like this.


People aren't bullish enough after the new $LITE backlog report. The demand visibility lasts past 2029 for optical companies…

Summary: Long AAOI and LITE on 800G/1.6T capacity leadership and LITE backlog signaling demand visibility past 2029; market not bullish enough.

Yeah… I’m cooking super hard.

$AAOI +10.65%

People aren’t bullish enough after the new $LITE backlog report.

The demand visibility lasts past 2029 for optical companies… https://t.co/XCh0QUFPUl

I'm not sure people understand yet:

$LITE backlog order fill into 2028 signals extreme demand. And a lack of capacity.

Then by second order effect of hyperscaler demand spillover:

Guess who is projected to have the largest 800G/1.6T capacity in America?

$AAOI.

They fab https://t.co/kUbRFDeYF9


$LITE backlog order fill into 2028 signals extreme demand. And a lack of capacity.


Summary: Bearish on SLNH, BKKT, ASST, IREN — all dilutive ATM vehicles that will destroy retail investors; 'absolutely terrible longs.'

$SLNH is a shtco like $BKKT, $ASST, and $IREN.

That is actively diluting everyone with a $500M ATM.

Not sure why anyone even listens to a guy who has consistently crashed retail portfolios over and over.

I’m going to watch them raise $500M off retail bagholders that get diluted to $0.

Then say “we have $500m on our balance sheets, MC should be higher” and award themselves SBC off the ATM.

They’re all absolutely terrible longs.


Summary: Long LITE, SIVE, TSEM, SOI and others for high-beta exposure to CPO supercycle; CEO confirms massive supply-demand imbalance and $91B TAM by 2028.

$LITE CEO basically confirmed GS TAM expansion + CPO Supercycle.

From ~close to nothing -> $91B. From H2 2026 to 2028:

“ I think what we’ve said is that we will have a massive supply demand imbalance on CPO”

Demand > Supply.

“Largest single growth driver, scale-up CPO”

Massive revenue driver is CPO.

“is very much in its infancy”.

We’re at the beginnings.

This is exactly why I have positions in $SIVE, MSScorps, Shunsin, $TSEM, $SOI and others for high beta exposure to the start of the CPO supercycle.

Just reiterating my disbelief:

I have never seen a sector more bullish than CPO.

GS reported Optical TAM 9X from $15b in 2026 -> US$154b in 2028

CPO making up $91B of that.

Starting from ~$164M (Modor for 2026 / sampling) to $91 Billion (GS 2028)

55,000%+ CPO growth curve


I have positions in $SIVE, MSScorps, Shunsin, $TSEM, $SOI and others for high beta exposure to the start of the CPO supercycle


Summary: Bullish XFAB on power semi revenue growth + silicon photonics in EU ecosystem + Western AI supply chain thesis.

X-FAB Silicon Foundries listed on Euronext Paris as XFAB.PA

Yep, there’s a lot of interesting things going on with $XFAB in terms of European’s photonics ecosystem and existing gov funding.

Basically power semi exposure, for primary revenue growth, and silicon photonics in EU ecosystem as extra.

Regardless I like the idea of supporting and securing Western supply chains for AI.


Summary: Long AXTI despite Chinese policy risk, reasoning that optical buildout depends on it.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

@deron0903 Of course I did. But if $AXTI goes down, the optical buildout with $LITE and others goes down too.

Which is why I thought it was worth it to go long anyway.

@aleabitoreddit When you initially bought AXTI, did you consider the policy risks from the Chinese government? If so, why did you still decide to buy it? Thank you!


Summary: Long TTD (40-50% upside to low $30s), HIMS (mean reversion to $40), and RDDT (recovering to $200+).

Stuff like $TTD at $22 is compelling, probably 40-50% upside back to low 30's.. Same with $HIMS at $28, I can see mean reversion to $40.

And $RDDT at $163, went long around $140, posted some thesis on the way down to $125, but glad it's recovered a bit.

Could probably chop a bit but I do see it recovering to $200+ in better macro.

@aleabitoreddit What would be some good ones to barbell with?


$HIMS at $28, I can see mean reversion to $40

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic


$RDDT at $163, went long around $140... I do see it recovering to $200+ in better macro


Summary: Long SOI on strong moat; also holds conviction in SIVE and AAOI as hypergrowth photonics plays.

@Blinklebloop Agreed $SOI has arguably one of the strongest positions out of everything.

$SIVE and $AAOI were the hypergrowth rocket ships following $AXTI for me. Lot of debate around them but I have conviction in them both

While everyone is debating the $SIVE

$SOI has a moat, and is undervalued on real metrics and real numbers.

My biggest Photonics position.


Summary: Long photonics pure-plays TSEM, AEHR, SIVE, SOI, Win Semi, LITE, AAOI into H2 2026 CPO/SiPH supercycle re-rating on $110B+ TAM.

Please stop trying to model 2025-2026 revenue for future CPO/SiPH ramp…

When I looked at $TSEM back at ~$115 last month (round to $200 now).

The forward p/e compressed to rates like ~16-18 (down to 10-12 in growth scenarios)

Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names.

This is H1 2026. Volume ramp hits H2 2026.

We’re at the very beginning of a massive supercycle and these are my more pure play exposure picks for the next architectural changes in photonics:

For testing, cw lasers, substrates, and foundries in next paradigm shift in the photonics supercycle.

Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I’ve longed last year cover multiple cycles.

However, the most returns comes from anticipating what benefits the most Mc wise relative to future revenue/TAM growth (not priced into current earnings).

Not looking back at 2 year historical returns to calculate fair value.

And when we’re looking at massive new photonics TAM ($110B+ bull case from lightcounting), largely driven from architecture that use CW lasers as an example or struggle with yields.

A lot of these companies are likely going to re-rate hard.

Especially when you look at the start of the next architectural changes, happening around H2 2026.


Same applies to $AEHR / $SIVE / $SOI /Win Semi and other names


Companies like $LITE or $AAOI that I've longed last year cover multiple cycles


Summary: Favors AAOI over LITE/COHR on transceivers and Win Semiconductor over TSEM on foundry side for highest ROI over 6 months.

@kishwarAI Lower the marketcap, higher the growth usually if they have similar customer profiles.

$AAOI probably highest ROI vs $LITE / $COHR on transceiver side.

Then Win probably outperforms $TSEM on the foundry side.

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit will foundries like Win/Tower price grow faster than LITE/COHR in terms of price/MC? How do you think about this? I want to think through which investment will have a higher ROI in the next 6 months.


Win probably outperforms $TSEM on the foundry side

Win Semiconductors foundry Taiwan; retrying .TWO suffix


I do have $RDDT! They're one of the few extremely profitable growth companies out there.

Summary: Holds RDDT; bullish on its rare combination of profitability and growth, despite price not yet reflecting fundamentals.

@XtineFang I do have $RDDT! They’re one of the few extremely profitable growth companies out there.

Just sadly hasn’t really reflected in market price so far.

@aleabitoreddit do u own any RDDT Serenity?


If you're curious why $SIVEF is up even more today. $SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient: Now likely powers the Golden Dome.

Summary: Bullish SIVEF/SIVE as CHIPS Act recipient powering Golden Dome via YSS/York Space defense chain; also implicitly long YSS as national defense prime contractor.

If you’re curious why $SIVEF is up even more today.

$SIVE, as a CHIPS act recipient:

Now likely powers the Golden Dome.

As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers’ lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS.

York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome.

So Sivers, a mini Swedish company, basically got a backdoor to powering the US space buildout.

$SIVE +200% something in only 2.5 weeks

all credit to @aleabitoreddit, made me more than I made in crypto past 5 months https://t.co/EP4ANATQis


As the upstream semi supplier since Sivers' lead customer ALLSPACE got acquired by $YSS. York happens to be a national defense prime contractor with links to the Space Force, Space Development Agency, DoD, and Golden Dome.


I'm more bullish on stablecoin issuers like $CRCL than i am on individual networks like $ETH

Summary: Prefers stablecoin issuer Circle over ETH; relatively bearish on individual L1 networks vs stablecoin infrastructure plays.

@rockwell0790 USDC and others are blockchain agnostic so they can settle on Solana or their own EVM compatible network that pays fees in stablecoins.

I’m more bullish on stablecoin issuers like $CRCL than i am on individual networks like $ETH.

@aleabitoreddit You are bullish eth right?


more bullish on stablecoin issuers like $CRCL than i am on individual networks like $ETH


Summary: Bullish AEHR: hyperscaler customers moving from test to mass production will drive multi-year revenue growth; current financials less important than customer profile and scale-up metrics.

もし、シリコンフォトニクス分野などの顧客がテスト段階から大量発注（量産）の段階へと移行すれば、それは同社に数年間にわたる収益拡大をもたらすはずです。

$AEHR はまだ初期段階にあり、現在多くのハイパースケーラーが同社のテストを行っているところですので、あなたの要約は的を射ています。現在の財務状況は、顧客プロファイル（顧客層）や量産拡大の指標ほど重要ではないと私は考えています。

$AEHR 決算について：
セレ様「今回は重要でない。問題は量産体制できるか否か」

・現在の受注残（バックログ）：四半期末時点で3,870万ドル（実質ベースでは5,090万ドル）
・FY26後半（H2）ガイダンス：後半の売上は2,500万〜3,000万ドルを見込むと再確認

決算に対する考え方：


Summary: Bullish IQE as photonics epiwafer chokepoint; MTSI's $45M strategic investment validates prior thesis.

Just now, $MTSI looking to invest $45 Million into $IQE and sit on the board.

What did I say anon??? Landmark was overcapacity...

+ IQE was a structural chokepoint in photonics the supply chain back at $100M MC.

This deal is also to secure long term epiwafer supply. https://t.co/lS2TGFI6v6


$MTSI looking to invest $45 Million into $IQE and sit on the board


Summary: Bullish XFAB at $1.5B MC as sole US high-volume SiC foundry with dual US/EU government critical-infrastructure status, CHIPS Act inclusion, and 2027-28 production ramp.

I genuinely think $XFAB is very compelling at $1.5B MC, despite recent volatility.

Per NIST filings stated they were the only high volume SiC foundry in America.

Making them extremely “critical infrastructure”… Verbatim from the US Gov.

And they’re the first comprehensive pure play foundry for SiC/GaN.

So it’s very compelling exposure as  $NVDA pushes 800 VDC and as other power semi players from $NVTS and $WOLF are all re-rating hard.

For long term photonics exposure:

They were literally listed in CHIPS Act 2 blueprints… with $NOK / $NVDA evaluations right now.

And production ramp up in 2027/volume production H1 2028 expected.

So you have a company at $1.5B MC:

Critical both on the power semis front to the US government.

And critical to both photonics front to the EU government.

Coming off of a legacy drag cycle with auto and others (similar to Soitec).

I think I’d follow EU/US government signals for what’s critical infrastructure given expected dual continent subsidies…

Over random media analysts trying to cause unnecessary volatility saying it’s a memestock with no fundamentals.


other power semi players from $NVTS and $WOLF are all re-rating hard


listed in CHIPS Act 2 blueprints… with $NOK / $NVDA evaluations right now


Summary: Conditional long AAOI: if execution delivers on largest laser fab + 1.6T capacity, could reach $30B+ market cap within a year.

@bartlett_d26245 $AAOI depends on the earnings. Back at $60 I said it should be valued at $11-$13B, and finally hit that projection.

Depends on execution now, but if they deliver becoming largest laser fab + 1.6T capacity America, could easily be a $30B+ company in a year.

@aleabitoreddit Still a good time to enter  $AAOI or too high?


doesn't feel too bad going long on the SKC ecosystem? … I do have very small exposure to both

Summary: Long both SKC and HB Technologies on glass core substrate theme; small exposure, sees copper-foil drag bottoming and markets pricing in glass as next major trade.

For Glass Core Substrates, doesn't feel too bad going long on the SKC ecosystem?

SKC (011790) - Is one of the Glass Core Substrate leaders with CHIPS ACT funding at ~$5.5B MC

HB technologies (078150) - automated optical inspection / yields piggy backing off of SKC Absolics at ~$250M.

SKC's copper foil / EV legacy drag seems to be bottoming. Their financials seem like a dumpster fire, but it's kinda priced into MC + better than US companies with $6B+ in dilution.

HB seems lower risk, low p/e and yields for glass is going to be pretty important.

I do have very small exposure to both.

Was going to wait a bit longer but seems markets are pricing in Glass as the next possible memory/photonics trade.


HB seems lower risk, low p/e and yields for glass is going to be pretty important. I do have very small exposure to both


Summary: Expects SOI CPO/siph ramp to play out; transceiver cycle laggards (AAOI, LITE peers) to catch up to re-rated names in H2.

@Niatama195432 $SOI takes a bit of time for CPO/siph ramp. It's only up ~11% or so since my original thesis, but depends on entry point.

Lot of the current transceiver cycle players like $AAOI and $LITE have re-rated currently, but I expect the others to catch up H2.


another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like... MSSCorps (yields)

Summary: Strongly bullish on CPO ecosystem names (SIVE, MSSCorps, Shunsin) on Goldman's projected 9x optical networking TAM expansion and 142% CPO CAGR 2026-2030.

MSSCorps is MSSCorp 6830.TW per tweet context

Goldman Sachs Projections on Optical Networking.

Aggregate TAM would increase 9x:

From $15B to $154B. CPO contributes $91B.

What the actual?

Yep... And another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like $SIVE (laser), MSSCorps (yields), or Shunsin (packaging).

This is frontrunning the next supercycle. I don't think people realize how wild these projections are yet.

Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO.

Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry).

“The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)”

“The scale-up CPO segment is projected https://t.co/vbxcqARa25


another confirmation why I'm so incredibly bullish on CPO names like... Shunsin (packaging)

Shunsin Technology listed on TWSE as 6451.TW


Just in case you're wondering why I'm bullish on $CRCL and Stablecoins

Summary: Bullish CRCL and stablecoins; stablecoins eliminate FX/fee friction vs App Store/Stripe, banks lobbying to control them confirms momentum.

Just in case you’re wondering why I’m bullish on $CRCL and Stablecoins.

8605 subscribers at $1.00:

-> $1595.

Not even including int. like Canada paying 46% more (2 CAD vs $1 USD subscription) and the FX/rounding disappearing into the void.

I’m not here for subscription revenue so I don’t plan on changing anything.

But just found this pretty amusing even if you factored in pro rata or holds/delays.

You would reduce 30% App Store fees, Stripe card TX fees, and other black box fee mechanisms like foreign currency rounding.

Stablecoins are definitely the future, and you can already see banks trying to control it with Clarity Act lobbying.


Summary: Holds a long position in Win Semi.

Win Semiconductors Taiwan; retrying .TWO OTC suffix

@ram_blings I went long on Win Semi because there's too many puns I can make with updates along the way up.

@aleabitoreddit lets Win this! good pick.


Anything they make is likely to be bought out by hyperscalers. Current financials don't really mater if you look at $1.41B quarterly revenue ramp by mid 2027 projections ($471 x 3) vs current MC. And the overarching 9x TAM curve from GS projections.

Summary: Long AAOI: hyperscaler buyout candidate with $1.41B quarterly revenue ramp by mid-2027 and 9x TAM growth per GS, still undervalued at $11.5B MC.

I’ve said this before when $AAOI was $6.49B.

Now it’s $11.5B and this is the same story:

Basically this is the Optical version of $INTC, where they’re scaling capacity from laser fab to assembly Made in America.

Anything they make is likely to be bought out by hyperscalers.

Current financials don’t really mater if you look at $1.41B quarterly revenue ramp by mid 2027 projections ($471 x 3) vs current MC.

And the overarching 9x TAM curve from GS projections.

$AAOI looks very undervalued at $6.49B.

If we model ASP and their newest capacity projections today:

Revenue from Capacity:
Q2 2026: ~$312.1M
Q4 2026: ~$1.41B
Q2-2027: ~$1.53B
Q4-2027: ~$1.97B

This is absurd ramp (off ~34-40% est. gross margins).

ASP modeled off https://t.co/351g7Csz9J


Summary: Bullish on Win Semi (3105) private placement despite 9.4% dilution — likely another Tier-1 customer (possibly NVDA) taking a strategic stake, as happened with Broadcom previously.

Win Semiconductors Corp Taiwan; retrying .TWO suffix

So private placement is ~9.4% dilution via 40M new shares via Win Semi (3105).

Any other stock I'd be cautious... but last time Win did this, $AVGO took a stake in Win Semi.

And Broadcom became their lead customer.

Maybe T1 semi like $NVDA, given their recent funding of $MRVL, $LITE, $COHR.

There's also a 3 year holding period.

I said before Win Semi is foundational to photonics, humanoids, and space (eg. SpaceX) and it's likely another T1 customer using them long term.

It's nuanced but actually bullish.

@aleabitoreddit 3105  Win Semiconductors Corp just announced a private placement today.

What’s your take on this?
How do you think it impacts the stock price


Summary: Bullish MP Materials as critical to US national security amid China weaponizing rare earths supply.

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'

Yes $MP is paramount to national security. Again China has weaponized Rare Earths against us.

It’s incredibly stupid for FT and other news outlets to go and get rile up the US population…

At the US government spending to secure our supply chains??? So we don’t rely on Russia and China?

Are they all stupid?

@aleabitoreddit Agreed - if anything $MP is even more compelling now


Summary: AAOI won't be displaced by CPO transition — owns full supply chain for both pluggable and CPO (ELSFP) markets.

$AAOI does laser -> design -> assembly -> then sells the transceiver. So they have the whole supply chain.

Pluggables won't go away so they'll fill that gap.

Then on the side, they build ELSFPs (external light sources), so laser -> design -> packaging on the CPO side.

So they do both. They don't get replaced in the transition.

@aleabitoreddit What I don't yet understand about $AAOI is where they stand on the laser market. I understand they mostly focus on transceivers but they also sell stand-alone lasers. Where does that leave AOI regarding the framework you just explained?


Summary: Bullish IQE: MTSI stake removes debt burden and brings a strategic investor.

@LNMDad This is incredibly positive having $MTSI take $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor.

@aleabitoreddit Serenity, what do you think of this dillution of $IQE and $MTSI taking a stake at a large discount?


Summary: Bullish on laser chokepoint plays; Sivers (SIVE) most compelling at ~$290m MC in JBL/MRVL CPO roadmap; also picks MRVL, LITE, SOI.

100% lasers. I personally wouldn't go downstream into assembly and others.

But with the laser chokepoint it's really hard to pick a winner between stuff like Luxnet, Furukawa, Sumitomo, $SIVE, $MTSI, $LITE, $SMTC (after heico cw acqusition) and others...

But I found Sivers to be really compelling since they're in $JBL 1.6T +  $MRVL CPO roadmap at ~$290m MC.

---

@FranGGlez Oh one from each category:

1. $MRVL
2. $SIVE
3. Win
4. $SOI
5. $LITE


Summary: Short SLNH: no equity appreciation case given $1B dilution against $219M market cap; called utter garbage.

@SingularityRes $SLNH is utter garbage for equity appreciation.

I'm just in disbelief people think they're going to have it appreciate in value when they're getting actively diluted $1 BILLION off a $219m MC.

@aleabitoreddit I talked with the $SLNH management last year. They couldnt pivot the existing crypto mining to data centers. In the mega AI tsunami the best they did was colocation of crypto machines for other companies (not even GPUs). Also, the massive failure in the 900MW Western Sahara


It's at the beginning of discovery stage to institutions. But no, it's still early

Summary: Still early for IQE; institutional discovery just starting with Point72 buying last week, more upside ahead.

@marv_jones6 Point72 literally just started buying $IQE last week.

It’s at the beginning of discovery stage to institutions.

The only reason it feels “late” is because I pointed it out extremely early and it’s already up few hundred %.

But no, it’s still early

@aleabitoreddit I’m trying to understand if he classifying IQE as undiscovered still. If so, fine.  But we’re talking almost 1000% in 6 months


Summary: Long AAOI on 1-year view; $6B market cap seen as very undervalued given $379M/month ramp of laser fab supply chain.

@SarAEsQMd So I'm confident in 1 year time, with $379m/month ramp laser fab -> design -> assembly supply chain. That $6B is very undervalued for $AAOI.

But we'll likely experience extreme volatility in the meantime from war.

If you want to play it safe you can sell CSPs few weeks out.

@aleabitoreddit You are a bull on $aaoi

Would you buy the dip here or do you think we have more pain to come? https://t.co/b8OwN5RVXO


Summary: Bullish SIVE as Tier 1 CPO laser supplier amid COHR/LITE capacity constraints; AMD/hyperscalers scrambling upstream; SIVE at center of chokepoint early next year. GFS also named as a primary beneficiary route.

It's pretty insane to see $SIVE become a Tier 1 laser supplier for CPO.

This is my prediction/guess with est. mapping:

$NVDA ate up all the capacity with $COHR, $LITE after their new $2B+ spending spree.

Same playbook with EML early 2025, causing the bottleneck seen today.

Now, $AMD / hyperscalers are scambling for upstream laser suppliers.

Hence why $SIVE + Win / $GFS became likely primary route to go down.

You can see this with:

-> $MVL CPO through Celestial (Nvidia signed a deal, but they don't have lasers)
-> $AMD CPO
-> Ayar
-> $POET
-> Lightmatter
-> and other programs (eg. Jabil 1.6T)

As a result, Sivers/Win emerged as the Tier 1 bleeding edge + critical independent laser supplier.

And there's hints for this when:
1. $GFS listed $SIVE / $LITE as the two only public laser suppliers in their ecosystem.
2. Ayar removed $LITE / $MTSI off their website and elevated $SIVE to their primary laser supplier.

So everyone else ended up going with Sivers since $COHR / $LITE are fully allocated.

My guess is that a lot of the secondary suppliers also capture overflow as architectures standardize.

But scramble for this chokepoint will be insane early next year given $NVDA bottleneck.

And a small $1.2B Swedish company in $SIVE will be in the center of it.


Summary: Still long SIVE (lasers designed into Apple/Marvell/JBL); past longs in RKLB and HOOD now closed at higher prices as context.

I was long $RKLB in the 10's, because of their reusable rocket success rate. Despite banks/analysts claiming it would crash.

I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments.

I'm long $SIVE because their lasers look designed into $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, and other sector leaders despite being so small.

Media was against all of them while they were small. But just need to look past that noise.

@aleabitoreddit But how do you know? The big boy has all the resources and advantages. How you tell these small players can outpace the big whale? What can be the indicator?


I was long $HOOD in the 10's because of their massive consumer base and TAM expansion into other segments


Summary: Long US rare earth equities USAR and MP as #1 national security priority; backs Trump admin funding of domestic supply chain sovereignty.

This is the most egregious headline I’ve read from FT.

“US BETS BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ON UNPROVEN GROUPS IN RARE EARTHS DEALS”

No sht.

Maybe they’re “unproven” since we have nothing??

$USAR to $MP are incredibly important.

Since US rare earths supply is the #1 national security priority right now.

The United States owns almost none of the upstream capacity/refineries for AI, Robotics, to Space, as we rely on other countries from Canada to China.

This is probably the best domestic policy move from the Trump administration to fund these unprofitable efforts.

In order to secure US supply chain sovereignty instead of relying on Russia and China?

It’s almost like FT is trying to make the US public mad…

At genuinely great efforts to secure American’s independence by how they word these articles.


Summary: Long AXTI: InP substrate scarcity from photonics ramp makes it a critical bottleneck that will keep growing.

I think this is just $LITE corporate wording for:

“We don’t have enough InP substrates”.

Remember I sad last year that as photonics ramps up, $AXTI will just keep growing as a critical bottleneck? https://t.co/DfeQa3haIK


Summary: Long HPS.A, Hammond, and POWL on multi-year transformer/switchgear bottleneck driving DC delays; structural long thesis on backlog + extreme demand.

Unfortunately, not all my names go up triple digits in a week.

$HPS.A is only up ~17% so far.

Hammond was my pick for the transformers/switchgear DC bottleneck since it had a lower MC but high dry transformer market share.

$POWL was another good switchgear long that I came across often; I ended up passing but just throwing that out there.

Transformers/Switchgear are probably under-appreciated as a bottleneck but many types are sold out for the next 2-5 years.

Because of this, they’re causing widespread DC delays and should be a good structural long from backlog visibility + extreme demand.

The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear.

Trade Idea: Long Hammond  (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD.

They dominate the market for:

-Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market),

-serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck)

-and manufacture liquid too https://t.co/1r8ZJMfGUu


they're causing widespread DC delays and should be a good structural long from backlog visibility + extreme demand

Hammond Power Solutions trades on TSX; ~2.2B CAD


$BOT is the biggest red flag. NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92. You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it's valued at $39B. Retail just looks like exit liquidity.

Summary: Short BOT: trading at massive premium to NAV ($37.92 vs $7.34), implies $200B+ valuation vs $39B actual, $2B dilution risk, retail is exit liquidity.

$BOT is the biggest red flag.

NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92.

You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B.

Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail.

Not the appreciation or underlying fundamentals.

To make matters worse:

There’s $2B dilution as valuation arbitrage as you all get diluted to oblivion.

I got a lot of fund managers dming influencers like myself about it but in reality:

Retail just looks like exit liquidity.


It's probably extremely bullish for the Neocloud segment like $NBIS (and even $CRWV) more than markets think

Summary: Extremely bullish on Neocloud players NBIS and CRWV as hyperscaler buildout delays spill demand to secured-capacity providers.

I’ve been thinking about this report more from last month…

It’s probably extremely bullish for the Neocloud segment like $NBIS (and even $CRWV) more than markets think.

Because of the hyperscaler buildout delay spillover.

And partly why $META might have signed a $27B deal.

Companies that already have secured capacity/component orders for their buildout are likely to be major winners as other competition stalls.


Yes I'm long on $AEHR. But it's highly compelling long from here

Summary: Holds long position in AEHR; describes it as highly compelling from current levels.

@jaimecarralon Yes I’m long on $AEHR.

Also used inevitable to poke some fun at others using that format with $LITE, don’t really mean that.

But it’s highly compelling long from here


Shunsin (Packaging)... one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle

Summary: Bullish CPO supercycle; named beneficiaries Sivers (lasers), Shunsin (packaging), MSSCorps (yields), Win Semi/TSEM (foundry), with NVDA and AVGO as architectural drivers.

Just in case you’re wondering why I’m so bullish on CPO.

Like $SIVE (Lasers), Shunsin (Packaging), MSSCorps (Yields), Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry).

“The CPO market is projected to grow sharply by a 142% CAGR from 2026 to 2030 (excl. ELS)”

“The scale-up CPO segment is projected to surpass scale-out applications before 2030 and become the dominant market.

You have almost parabolic growth over the next few years.

With many players like Sivers having no material exposure to previous 800g pluggable optics but are the bleeding edge leaders of CPO as the laser supplier.

This is one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle for an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO.


MSSCorps (Yields)... one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle


Win Semi / $TSEM (Foundry)... one of the best and earliest opportunities of the next optical supercycle

Win Semi Taiwan foundry; retrying .TWO OTC market suffix


an architecture driven by $NVDA and $AVGO


Summary: Long SIVE as a $10B+ opportunity on CPO scale-up from 2027; long MRVL on Celestial volume ramp exponentially increasing 2027–2029.

Pls stop tagging me in stuff where random retail investors or journalists tries doing an analysis on $AXTI or $SIVE.

For $AXTI:

Majority of folks have 0 clue what they’re talking about.

Samsung Foundry or $LITE InP fab are completely different parts of the supply chain and this is like conflating NAND and DRAM as memory.

Even talking about Sumitomo displacing AXT means they don’t understand the upstream extraction/processing/crucible bottlenecks that InP substrate level players like $COHR or Sumitomo don’t do.

For $SIVE:

This is mass inflection point of CPO scale up 2027 onwards.

I have idiots out there with no understanding of photonics looking at gross margin, burn rate, and former revenue numbers for previous years or even the current year.

For the biggest architectural inflection 2027 onwards.

If you look at $MRVL Celestial point its starting volume ramp 2027 and exponentially increasing 2028, 2029.

That’s why I said $SIVE can be a $10B+ company one day since it’s looking at forward growth and this is the earliest out on.

What I do is find alpha:

This is what markets might have mispriced like all the analysts saying 14-17% fwd growth with $RPI.

Then I modeled 55% and it turned out to be 58%.

One is a photonics bottleneck for a reason.

The other is designed into Jabil and Celestial for a reason.


Summary: Acknowledges Reddit's censorship flaws but calls it very profitable as a long.

Got banned from the subreddit after posting about $AXTI so a little salty.

Mods didn’t like it when a stock goes from $15 to $70 and retail actually makes money. But they encourage everyone to lose their life savings on 0dte $PLTR options.

Reddit is one of the biggest social media sites for censorship + echo chambers, albeit very profitable as a long.

@aleabitoreddit Thought for sure we’d see $RDDT on this list


I still am bearish on $IREN. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.

Summary: Bearish IREN: NVDA partnership is a risk-free option/brand deal, not real funding; $6B ATM dilutes retail while 5GW buildout requires ongoing share issuance.

I still am bearish on $IREN.

Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up.

However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes.

So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors.

It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B.

This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to.

There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.


Summary: Bullish AEHR on hyperscaler/optical transceiver qualifications plus new silicon photonics customer, expecting volume order visibility soon.

Nice return on $AEHR, pays dividends to be extremely early with that 132% return.

Lot of hyperscalers / optical transceiver customers for the next supercycle are qualifying Aehr right now, and the new siph customer 3 days ago is extremely positive news.

And I think we'll get insight how that translates to volume orders soon enough.

@aleabitoreddit Couldn’t agree more.. that’s exactly why $AEHR is a top 3 position in my growth portfolio. https://t.co/ZFoh53AkZE


It's a pretty high conviction position for me medium term at this level.

Summary: High-conviction long FOCI (3363) medium term; leading CPO supplier to NVDA/TSM, $3B MC vs $91B+ 2028 TAM, severely undervalued vs development-stage peers.

FOCI fiber optics Taiwan; retrying TWO (OTC market) suffix

Honestly I’m expecting FOCI (3363) to blow away projections over next two years.

It’s a pretty high conviction position for me medium term at this level.

Since they’re expected to be the leading supplier to $NVDA and $TSM and get frequently cited as a bottleneck for that $91B+ 2028 CPO TAM (GS).

Insane how it’s $3B MC as a critical CPO bottleneck required for scale, while LightWave Logic literally has around the same valuation at $2.7B in development stage.

@aleabitoreddit This is actually very interesting, their forecast EPS for 2028 is 47 TWD, which give them a PE OF 18, this is insane! Good find!


Summary: Long AAOI; expects it to outperform the market even if SPY/MSFT/AMZN fall another 20%.

@Ungrate11057544 Let's just say even if $SPY, $MSFT, $AMZN crashes another 20% I expect $AAOI to outperform the market.

@aleabitoreddit Is there not a huge risk of the AI bubble being popped right now ? UAE is funding a lot of AI + oil fields are on fire + helium supply constrained + etc+etc= funding being cut


Summary: Long SIVE supply chain and Win Semi (3105) as compelling plays on photonics supercycle driven by NVDA/GOOGL/AMZN/MSFT CPO ramp.

I'm telling you all...

Lot of stuff in the $SIVE supply chains make very compelling longs.

Win Semi (3105) just goes up 10% a day then halts trading after hitting its max.

Obviously they do things for $AVGO or SpaceX, but photonics ramp spearheaded by $NVDA and followed by $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT

Would make photonics a massive growth vector for Win.

Frontrunning 1.6T/CPO within the broader photonics supercycle is the most compelling investment to me.

I have high conviction in that statement.

Which is why I'm long the entire supply chain (+1 extra bottlenecK)

1. $SIVE - Their laser revenue scales aggressively with $JBL,


$AAOI at $12B… $AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything from laser fab to assembly in America. $471M/month… that's in 2027, the TAM increases exponentially in 2028.

Summary: Top 4 picks: AAOI, SIVE, Foci, Shunsin on photonics/AI capacity ramp; runner-up XFAB on EU CHIPS Act silicon photonics.

- $AAOI at $12B
- $SIVE at $2B
- Foci at $2.8B
- Shunsin at $2B

Usually the best risk/reward to me currently. Lot of my answers before like $AXTI already 10x’d, so different lineup this time.

$AAOI due to absurd H1 2027 revenue projections from capacity ramp, doing everything from laser fab to assembly in America.

$471M/month… that’s in 2027, the TAM increases exponentially in 2028.

$SIVE is also ramping absurdly high, 77% revenue pipeline growth of the entire company’s history to ~$799M

Primarily from photonics… in a single quarter. And they’re projecting 60% gross margins off that.

Foci - $NVDA / $TSM primarily FAU supplier and bottleneck for COUPE. Genuinely not sure how this is $2.8B.

BOM share for their passive components + FAU are massive in 2028. Just a bit early H1 2026.

Shunsin - Legit you see Foxconn get CPO/photonics related orders over and over for $NVDA and others.

Just nobody knows the packaging/testing gets done by Shunsin.

A lot of contracts are also under Shunsin’s subsidiary too.. so markets/algorithms don’t know what’s coming imo.

Runner up is $XFAB, they’ll probably be central to EU CHIPS act 2 for silicon photonics at ~$1.5B MC.

And of course SiC/GaN foundries should go brr with 800vdc push by Nvidia.

Especially if they’re the only high volume one in United States per Dpt. Of Commerce.

And it’s such a low price/book ratio so you’re kinda getting the company upside for free, while US Gov/EU Gov subsidize their capex.

@aleabitoreddit What are your top 4 stocks to buy right now, at current market capitalizations and offering the best risk/reward, if you could only choose 4?


Foci at $2.8B… Genuinely not sure how this is $2.8B. BOM share for their passive components + FAU are massive in 2028.

Foci Taiwan CPO; retrying .TWO for Taipei OTC listing


Shunsin at $2B… markets/algorithms don't know what's coming imo.


Runner up is $XFAB, they'll probably be central to EU CHIPS act 2 for silicon photonics at ~$1.5B MC.


jumped on the boat as a short term catalyst trade... I'm going to go ahead and guess they'll likely rerated once they announce their hyperscaler orders maybe anytime in the next 3 months

Summary: Long FLNC at $3B valuation as a short-term catalyst trade on imminent hyperscaler order announcements; GOOGL/MSFT mentioned only as deal partners.

Agreed high-level directionally, $FLNC compelling at $3B valuation post-earnings after taking a closer look.

Very rare to see a US energy player that small get 2 direct Hyperscaler deals...

The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT.

The hyperscaler deals were framework agreements, which are likely to convert "soon" Q3 this year, and aren't included in numbers.

Once that's released it's major positive catalyst, similar to qualification -> volume ramp in semi players.

Citi Analyst: "The possibility of a hyperscaler order will likely overshadow everything else in the quarter. We expect a positive reaction to the announcement"

I'm going to go ahead and guess they'll likely rerated once they announce their hyperscaler orders maybe anytime in the next 3 months so I jumped on the boat as a short term catalyst trade. (not just 1 but 2)

Also, if they hit ~$288M net income off gross-margin expansion ($6B revenue, 13.0% gross margins) from their software segment expansion, ~11.6x fwd p/e for 2027.

The current stock price is -50% Feb's prices despite hyperscalers + backlog de-risking the company looks like a great entry point to me (NFA).

Just listened to the earnings call from $FLNC and decided to add to my position at $16.67.

The earnings were spectacular in my opinion. Yes, they missed revenues due to a delayed shipment of $80 million, but the backlog keeps rising and Fluence management is confident they can https://t.co/bKItxbRMtI


The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT


not including new hyperscalers backlog like $GOOGL or $MSFT


Summary: Bearish LWLG (overvalued at $2.2B for a single trial agreement); bullish SIVE as most undervalued opportunity on hyperscaler optical laser ramp.

@SidkMena $LWLG has one developer agreement trial with $TSEM and is valued at $2.2B

$SIVE is shipping lasers that likely ends up in every hyperscaler optical program next year and is valued at $820m

One of the most undervalued opportunities I see today.

@aleabitoreddit Its all priced in now. 30X multiple is overvalued imo.


Summary: High-conviction long SIVE as last pure-play merchant laser supplier winning hyperscaler CPO allocations from NVDA, AMD, MRVL; also implies MRVL strength on CPO laser demand.

I'm happy Japanese communities started positions in $SIVE after doing research!

A stronger international shareholder base is always positive.

As for some thoughts, my read on the market looks like:

1. $NVDA bought out allocation from $LITE / $COHR
2. $AMD CPO went with $GFS + $SIVE / Win for remaining laser supply maybe $LITE if there’s still allocation.
3. And… $MRVL CPO will need lasers regardless.

$SIVE looks like one of the last remaining pure play merchant laser suppliers.

So Marvell will go with $SIVE (fits Celestial specs already) directly with multi-source down the road (maybe $MTSI). After they vertically integrate away interposer packaging process IP that feeds into Celestial.

Just some interesting things to back that up:

-> Ayar removed $MTSI and $LITE from their website and went with $SIVE as primary. Ayar’s connected to AlChip/GUC and others.

-> If look at the $GFS slide there's only two public players with $SIVE and $LITE after $AMD went with Globalfoundries for their CPO program.

-> $SIVE likely has agreements with Win since last year for laser capacity scaling.

$NVDA likely hasn't fully allocated that laser supply, so the remaining companies like $JBL, $AMD, and others go to Sivers for overflow.

Since $LITE signaled they were already fully allocated for 2028.

I could be wrong, but just based on public information that’s what it looks like.

As for why I think it's a good long:

-> Sivers also basically had no exposure to 800G or previous generations.
-> European markets price in previous 12 months revenue... hence previous depressed valuations
-> they get all the hyperscaler overflow created by market panic from $NVDA

But they also happen to be in the bleeding edge of CPO and even for gen-2 1.6T ( $JBL LRO) scaling next year in 2027.

Then for H2 2027 or 2028, they scale in adjacent areas like Silicon Photonics for likely $AAPL consumer devices.

Or FMCW 4D AI companies like $AEVA.

Many many years of development, finally coming to fruition next year.

I personally think markets are missing something big here, that the public uncovers over time with mapping hyperscaler relationships, website digging, or presentation slides.

Hyperscalers suppliers don't randomly choose a $1B Swedish laser company for no reason.

The direct contract with $JBL was the biggest signal of that.

And it’s my high conviction long moving forward.

インタラクティブブローカーズで、

$SIVE

遂に買えたァァ‼😭
10日くらいかかった😂😂✨

さすがに調整あるだろうから、半額買って調整待つーっ‼


Summary: Bought Jabil and added to COHR today; both flagged as interesting positions.

@SidkMena Maybe $JBL is interesting here too. Ended up buying Jabil and more $COHR today

@aleabitoreddit Appreciate it mate. Could you please suggest the gems for 2026. I just entered the market.


Ended up buying Jabil and more $COHR today


CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B. 100% monopoly over CPO yields... can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B

Summary: Long three CPO/HBM small-caps: SIVE (CPO laser, $10B+ target), MSSCORP 6830 (CPO inspection monopoly, $5-9B target), Auros 322310 (HBM hybrid bonding metrology, 3x to $630M).

MSSCorp (6830) Taiwan-listed CPO inspection monopoly

As for 3x brrrs these levels:

1. $SIVE
2. MSSCORP (6830)
3. Auros (322310)

Are my best guesses. Here's my thought process:

1. $SIVE: I genuinely do see them being $10B+ next year, they're the literal bleeding edge for CPO lasers alongside $LITE and $COHR.

At a $1.3B MC... For likely mapping:

Photonics: $AMD CPO, $MRVL Celestial CPO, $JBL 1.6T, Lightmatter, Ayar, ALChip, GUC, O-Net (ELS), $POET.

For Space + Defense: Golden Dome via $YSS, $RTX / $ERIC / Bae Systems.

Silicon Photonics: $AAPL (Apple Watches).

This is just a stupid amount of customers and it's still increasing.

They can always TAM expansion downstream through IP acquisitions or vertically integrate to speedrun $LITE's $60B MC one day once they get more funding.

2. MSSCORP (6830): CPO monopoly over inspection at ~$1.2B.

100% monopoly over CPO yields, $TSM, $AMAT, $NVDA, $LCRX, $INTC, and others are all likely customers.

"The company’s goal is to seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market"

This basically means 100%, they just don't want antitrust.  If they defend their monopoly and CPO ramps, can easily see this worth ~$5B-$9B from $1.2B

3. Auros (322310): Samsung / SK Hynix supplier at ~$210M for Hybrid Bonding Metrology.

Basically pure play on two products:
-> HBM4 / HBM4e / HBM5 cycles, that $KLA had a monoply over for IR metrology.
--->  Getting qualified now likely in Samsung factories, H2 volume ramp est. Sk Hynix likely qualifying too when they upgrade to hybrid bonding.
-> Thin-film thickness measurement.
---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year.

They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year.

Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market?

Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping.

But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.

@aleabitoreddit Stay with us and Give us some more x3 brrrrrr


Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market

Auros Korean equity 322310; retrying KOSDAQ .KQ suffix


Summary: Bullish SNDK and AAOI; short sellers misunderstand forward growth, bottlenecks, and TAM expansion — shorts become rally fuel.

$SNDK is a perfect example why you don’t trust firms named after tangerines.

Forward earnings compresses extremely hard with Sandisk and $AAOI.

My opinion is that shorts are just fuel to the rally…

Since people who took the other end of the trade, show a lack of understanding of forward growth, bottlenecks, and extreme TAM expansion.


Forward earnings compresses extremely hard with Sandisk and $AAOI


Summary: Bearish IREN until $6B ATM overhang clears; bearish VCX trading at 2000% NAV premium to SpaceX.

With $IREN, you have $6B in newly minted selling pressure. This ATM is structural overhang in any rally.

If the marketcap is $11 Billion and they're selling up to $6,000,000,000 worth of new shares against you in the open market.

I would not go long until the ATM is finished and existing holders get diluted.

Same with $VCX, if you're trading at 2000% NAV of SpaceX (valued at $34 Trillion), eventually the math will work against you.

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts about $IREN? Overvalued or worth buying?


if you're trading at 2000% NAV of SpaceX (valued at $34 Trillion), eventually the math will work against you


$IREN simply cannot monetize the rest of their capacity without using that. It's not 'optionality'. Financial structure nuance matters when you're choosing winners for equity appreciation.

Summary: Bearish IREN on massive dilution treadmill with no real optionality; bullish NBIS on superior funding structure (NVDA-backed convertibles) showing up in YTD returns.

Do you guys think there’s only $5,650,000,000 dilution to go with $IREN?

Very surprising that people haven’t switched to $NBIS or other names if you’re long Neoclouds.

One already has confirmed funding with $NVDA + convertibles from institutions.

The other is likely actively selling new shares on the open market to get funding off retail shareholders.

The sad reality is:

$IREN simply cannot monetize the rest of their capacity without using that. It’s not “optionality”.

Financial structure nuance matters when you’re choosing winners for equity appreciation.

Nebius is clearly has the better financing structure and this is already showing up in YTD returns.

$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC.

That is not noise.

This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market.

If you want some history on how this turns out:

Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and https://t.co/mc7R3VP28x


One already has confirmed funding with $NVDA + convertibles from institutions. Nebius is clearly has the better financing structure and this is already showing up in YTD returns.


Summary: High conviction long FOCI; markets underpricing future CPO bottlenecks.

@RayT168 Pretty high conviction in FOCI, markets underpricing future CPO bottlenecks right now just like $AXTI last year

@aleabitoreddit My first foray into Taiwan exchange 🫰

3633 FOCI https://t.co/E42MS2WeC9


Summary: Long-term bullish IQE on debt clearance and MTSI as locked-up strategic investor; short-term bearish on arbitrage risk from convertible-note holders.

@Mellokhai Nuanced, long term bullish especially with $MTSI as an investor and clearing debt. Macom is not a day trader so that 45M is locked up.

Short term bearish if the other half of the offering was sold to investors that arbitrage convertible notes.

@aleabitoreddit Any comment about $IQE equity offer ? I think it’s bullish !


$MTSI as an investor and clearing debt. Macom is not a day trader so that 45M is locked up


Summary: Bullish on SIVE, MRVL, POET, ASE on CPO ramp catalysts and hyperscaler client wins; forward earnings growth from lasers to accelerate.

No, they didn't have the same fundamentals. This is what majority of retail investors don't understand and it's so frustrating.

$SIVE literally landed $JBL as a hyperscaler client, and O-Net which serves Asian hyperscalers.

Then $MRVL ended up getting $2B from $NVDA and gave projections on their Celestial CPO ramp (which trickles down to $SIVE).

$POET also gave projections and volume ramp delivery H2, which was earlier than expected.

ASE literally went out and projected CPO volume ramp H2 2026, way earlier than expected.

So if we map forward earnings growth from lasers, it should accelerate a lot.

Markets price in future growth, not backward 2025 fundamentals.

@aleabitoreddit Yeah sure, everything you’re saying here might be true but all these stocks had the same fundamentals before but it only showed in the stock price after you and all the other X accounts posted these. I live in Sweden and have been investing in Sivers before you started posting.


$POET also gave projections and volume ramp delivery H2, which was earlier than expected

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ


ASE literally went out and projected CPO volume ramp H2 2026, way earlier than expected

ASE Technology Holding Co US ADR ticker ASX


Long term I think it will go much higher. This or next $AEHR earnings will likely hit like a truck once they all switch to volume orders.

Summary: Long AEHR long-term; hyperscaler/AI customer qualifications (AMD, GOOGL, INTC) expected to convert to volume orders, hitting earnings hard.

I haven't seen a company get so many hyperscalers/AI companies qualifying it before... think it's $AMD, $GOOGL, $INTC, and more optical companies, so line up is kinda insane.

This or next $AEHR earnings will likely hit like a truck once they all switch to volume orders.

As for timing, can't help you there. Long term I think it will go much higher, short term not sure.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think aehr would be a good buy here ? I just started following you and wanted to buy it but I know you’ve been in it longer


69% Y/Y, 91.5% gross margins... with GAAP net income close to 31% of their revenue... Next quarter projections shows it's still growing at a rapid pace

Summary: Bullish RDDT: high-growth money printer with 69% Y/Y revenue, 91.5% gross margins, near-31% GAAP net income, and continued rapid growth next quarter.

They grew 69% Y/Y, 91.5% gross margins... with GAAP net income close to 31% of their revenue.

Lot of software companies mask profitability with SBC like Snapchat.

But $RDDT figures are high revenue growth with an immense portion of that adding to their cash balance sheets.

Next quarter projections shows it's still growing at a rapid pace.

@aleabitoreddit do you mind explaining why is $RDDT high growth money printer?


Summary: Long AAOI to $40B market cap; hyperscaler demand supports execution-driven upside.

@Yolo365247isme Yeah I believe in $40B MC $AAOI one day… their whole name of the game is execution.

Since hyperscalers are just buying anything they can make. We’ll see how it turns out over the next year, risk/reward was worth it for me personally.

@aleabitoreddit $AAOI can still do multiples from here imo


Summary: Iran ceasefire expected to lift record short pressure on European equities; European photonics names IQE, SOI, SIVE already bouncing.

European photonics sector finally coming back to life.

Today:
$IQE: up 10.78%
$SOI: up 9.96%
$SIVE: up 12.7%

This is amid the FT report:

“Hedge funds make record bets against European stocks” due to Europe’s hypersensitivity to the Iran War.

Now that there’s a ceasefire in Iran, it’s likely we’ll see a lot of the pressure will get taken off of European equities.


Soitec listed on Euronext Paris as SOI.PA


Sivers Semiconductors listed on Nasdaq Stockholm as SIVE.ST


Summary: Endorses FORM and ONTO as solid picks in an accelerating ecosystem.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

@labubu_trader Hard to go wrong with $FORM or $ONTO. The whole ecosystem is just accelerating so fast right now.

@aleabitoreddit I like $FORM and $ONTO more than the others.


Summary: Long IREN but only after dilutive funding round completes; current dilution via $6B ATM makes timing unfavorable for near-term entry.

I really find it hard to disagree with my assessment.

I said $IREN was accretive long term. But short term holders are the one funding the buildout by getting diluted.

So the best thing to do for equity appreciation is go long after they get the funding, not while they're actively diluting.

$IREN would not file a $6B ATM just for "optionality" if they didn't need to use it. Especially to monetize their 4.5GW capacity.


Summary: Bullish on HBM supply-chain names (MU, Hynix, Samsung, Japanese structural monopolies) as market focuses on CPUs but HBM4 capex cycle accelerates.

Markets are looking at CPUs right now and kinda forgot about memory.

But... there's increased capex spend with Sk Hynix, $MU, Samsung around now, with Samsung starting HMB4 production recently.

$TSM also signaled record capex across the board.

But just like $LPK in glass core substrates...

There's a decent amount of structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan.

That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles.

Over in Korea, things like Hanmi Semi (KRX: 042700) have been taking off, up 27.6%+ today, so I'd guess the other companies around the world might play catchup soon.


structural monopolies over in the HBM camp markets that I'm thinking about in places like Japan. That markets may have forgotten? They would largely benefit from current HBM4 capex cycles

Japan HBM basket: Advantest, Renesas, Furukawa, Shin-Etsu


Summary: Bullish Sivers Semiconductors; personal model sees $2B+ MC as reasonable today on JBL LRO ramp alone, with additional Marvell/Ayar upside.

Sivers Semiconductors on Nasdaq Stockholm as SIVE.ST

I did some modeling of $JBL LRO scale up.

And from personal est. it brings in:

~$120M 2027
~$280M 2028.
~$480M 2029

For ARR to Sivers, which is extremely significant given Sivers MC, from that customer alone. Not including Marvell, Ayar, and other unidentified buyers.

I thought $2B+ today was reasonable personally, we’ll see what happens.

@aleabitoreddit Absolute gold mine brother! 1.5B mc looking like a conservative estimate for the year. What do you think?


Summary: Still holding SIVE long-term (next LITE thesis) and AXTI (multi-year photonics supercycle); no plans to sell either.

There's stuff I trade, and stuff I invest in.

I haven't sold a single $SIVE share since I bought it last month. I expect this to be the next $LITE if they play their cards right, and this is a long term investment.

As for stuff like $AXTI, I'm up over 1000%+ but I'm still holding. For multi-year supercycles (photonics), don't need to sell.

I do take short-term capital gains tax if I see an end of a cycle nearing or there's material changes, like took all of mine on $HOOD, $MSTR, and crypto names earlier. Or drone names after Greeland peace deal. There's also short term recovery trades like on $META or $MSFT that I take short-term on too.

Otherwise, for long term investments, can just hold, let it compound, and use margin withdrawal to not trigger capital gains.

@aleabitoreddit Serenity,do you have any general rules you follow for holding for capital gains tax versus selling? (not talking about SIVE)But let’s say something has shot up and you expect it to trade sideways,do you have any rules of percentage or dollar figures relative to time to 12 months?


Summary: 1-year market-cap targets for AAOI $70B, SIVE $30B, Foci $15B, Shunsin $10B — all implying significant upside.

@Batemanzm75 I’m gonna go ahead and make a random prediction in a year:

$AAOI - $70B MC
$SIVE - $30B MC
Foci - $15B MC
Shunsin - $10B MC

@aleabitoreddit How much upside do you see for AAOI, Foci, and Shunsin in an years time?


Summary: Long AEHR: upcoming earnings call with hyperscaler signal will trigger re-rating ahead of 2027 mass orders.

Again, if mass orders happen 2027, $AEHR will re-rate today. And we'll get more indication about it in their earnings call now as they signaled "significant forecasts from our lead hyperscaler".

$AAOI got re-rated 2-3x after earnings because the CEO signaled $378m/month H2 2027.

I would not look at current near-term qualification orders in financials to indicate where it's heading next year.


Summary: Recommends SIVE, AEHR as purer plays, AAOI on next dip, and WIN/SOI/MRVL as safer picks at an early inflection point.

Not really late too the party, it’s extremely early and at the beginning of the next inflection point.

I personally like $SIVE, $AEHR if I had to pick two more smaller purer play companies around now, maybe throw in $AAOI on the next drop.

For safer, Win, $SOI, $MRVL seem solid?

Quite a lot of names…

@aleabitoreddit For those who are late to the party and with limited capital to invest (less than 10k) , which 2-3 stocks should we go for?


Win Semiconductors foundry Taiwan; retrying .TWO suffix


Summary: Long CPO-adjacent names (COHR, LITE, SIVE) ahead of CPO scale-out revenue starting H2 2026 and scale-up H2 2027; advises frontrunning before market prices it in.

$COHR earnings note:

Coherent's CEO basically reaffirmed GS research note about CPO being a massive revenue driver:

Transcript: “One of the most important long-term growth opportunities for Coherent”

In terms of timeline implications on $SIVE, $LITE, and other CPO adjacent names, just confirms timelines:

"Initial scale-out CPO revenue is expected to begin in the second half of calendar 2026, with scale-up CPO revenue following in the second half of calendar 2027"

"Coherent is working with multiple other customers and expects CPO solutions to be widely adopted." - This also reaffirmed adoption level.

Scale-up CPO is the biggest value driver across the board that happens start of H2 next year. We're still in H1 2026 entering H2 2026.

So this is the ideal time to frontrun CPO names before anything hits the balance sheet.

This is known as "alpha"... pricing in things market fully don't know yet by looking at financials.

Markets are typically forward looking 8-12 months... So if massive volume ramp happens July 2027 (might get pushed forward again)...

And it's May 2026, a lot of that gets priced in between July 2026 and July 2027... between volume agreements H2 2026, and pre-production ramp H1 2027.

2 months before markets price in the largest volume drivers is what I call "frontrunning" the next CPO Supercycle.

We know it's coming. Just a matter of waiting.

Just for the visual learners about CPO:

This is what the CPO market growth looks like from GS + $LITE transcript confirmations.

There's certain names that are very high-beta correlated to CPO.

Maybe... not the best idea to copy firms named after Orange Peels on $AAOI to $SNDK https://t.co/0NbPPifMU2


In terms of timeline implications on $SIVE, $LITE, and other CPO adjacent names, just confirms timelines


Summary: Still long NBIS (up 3x since entry, retains bullish stance); dismisses IREN as a dumpster fire implying bearish view.

Look who joined team $NBIS.

5.6% is a pretty massive stake, maybe he realized by now it’s miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN.

That being said: Nebius is now up ~3x since I went long last year.

Weebius has plot armor. https://t.co/JYZvf3GJND


miles better than the dumpster fire that is $IREN


Summary: Bullish SIVE on uncapped 1.6T demand, faster-than-expected mass production timeline, dramatic moat in laser architecture, and material revenue vs current market cap; secondarily bullish JBL as co-manufacturer.

$SIVE mass production for 1.6T optical transceivers with $JBL:

Is now earlier than expected per JP Morgan Fireside chat.

Here's what they announced:

> "Relatively dramatic moat" implied with $SIVE laser architectures

> Extreme demand for their 1.6T, which was previously unknown in terms of volume.

> Faster than expected timelines, pulling revenue realization window forward.

The statement:

1. Jabil’s 1.6T LRO: "Goes into different qualifications across the next 1 to 4 months"

“The quals can take anywhere between 2 to 6 months"

Given its May H1 2026, mass production and revenue realization could begin in anywhere between 3 months to 10 months.

So late 2026 with 6.5 month midpoint.

Lot of former estimates were H2 2027.

3. Architecturally it's "which is about 11 kilowatts dramatically lower than current 1.6T power profiles"

Hyperscalers would like to hear this, and this is the competitive differentiation + relatively dramatic moat proven with $SIVE as the critical photonics chokepoint.

4. "At this point, it's not about share. It's really about keeping up with the organic growth of the entire market."

Again this shows that the enormous demand has outstripped supply.

The implications are that it’s more of a matter of how much Sivers + Jabil can build together, as anything they make would be bought.

This type of statement is just incredibly material for Sivers revenue relative to their current marketcap.

The market was previously uncertain about the exact volume demand and commercial timeline from Sivers X Jabil.

Jabil just publicly confirmed that the demand for their 1.6T LRO with $SIVE lasers is essentially uncapped.


they're trading at .54 book value and a forward P/E of 11.4 so it's probably undervalued anyway. Just reverting to Book Value of 1 is immediate 80-85% upside.

Summary: Long Nippon Chemical (4092) on 80-85% upside to book value + critical InP substrate chokepoint; also holds small AXTI position as structural bottleneck play.

Nippon Chemical Industrial listed on TSE as 4092.T

A Guide by Serenity:

How to Cripple the Western Hyperscaler buildout with just $170m.

Just take over Nippon Chemical (4092) with $169m!

For InP substrates, you need: Indium and High Purity Phosphorus.

Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck.

NCI is actually the leader of the high purity red phosphorus chokepoint holding 26-27% of the market share (Rasa has less share, then the rest is China).

And they export to $AXTI, Sumitomo, JX that need it to make InP substrates.

So… if you have $160m to spend to acquire NCI (plus Rasa as smaller capacity), you can remove the leading Western world’s production of 6N/7N red phosphorus needed to make InP substrates!

And without InP substrates: no photonics.

Fun fact: China’s tech companies would get pretty disrupted with it too by NCI.

For $AXTI, the mapping/reliance is actually pretty interesting:

- AXT's Tongmei outlined its structural reliance on importing high-purity precursor materials from Japan on their STAR Market listing

- WITS data showing ~$460/kg high-purity phosphorus flowing from Japan into China

So they secretly do depend on NCI.

China does have capacity like Wylton Chemical, Qin Xi New Materials, Jinding Electronics, and Chuxiong Chuanzhi, Guizhou Wylton Jinglin Electronic Materials as well.

However, they’re all smaller players so can’t make up for high purity red phosphorus capacity provided by NCI for InP substrate production at scale.

$LITE CEO already said inp substrates keeps him up at night.

So now with NCI, you can give the guy permanent insomnia?

For just $169M.

So here's what the supply chain looks like:

-> DGC phosphate rock mine and ships it to NCI
-> NCI refines Yellow Phosphorus into High Purity Red Phosphorus
->  Sumitomo / JX / AXT melt the Red Phosphorus with Indium to grow InP Substrates
-> $COHR / $LITE fab InP substrates into Lasers
-> Innolight/Fabrinet package them into 800G/1.6T transceivers
-> $NVDA / $GOOGL use them for ASIC/GPU clusters.

And basically, the entire West depends on NCI to make InP substrates for photonics.

I hold some very small positions, just for fun. However, Japan is not well known for price hiking.

So you’d probably run into regulatory problems eg. FEFTA if you bought the company and hiked prices 15000% (like government seizing back the company once they realize)…

Maybe 30-50% hikes is possible to compress fwd p/e? But very likely wont end up like $AXTI.

Regardless, this company is a massive, massive national security risk priced at ~$160m.

As for fundamentals, they’re trading at .54 book value and a forward P/E of 11.4 so it’s probably undervalued anyway.

TLDR:

->  Is it the next $AXTI? No.

-> Is it an unknown structural bottleneck + critical vulnerability of the Western hyperscaler buildout with photonics? Yes.

-> Is there still room for re-rating?

Just reverting to Book Value of 1 is immediate 80-85% upside. Maybe more if you give it multiples past 11 fwd p/e.

Regardless, it’s fun to find a major point of failure in the hyperscaler supply chains for $169m.


Thought $AXTI was a bottleneck? NCI is the bottleneck of the bottleneck.


Summary: Bullish ARM on CPU bottleneck thesis: orchestration/RAG workloads and growing localized inference demand.

Bruh it’s only been one day with $ARM.

How does a $200B+ company go up 12% https://t.co/4BNSjjk88c

Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. MS shows stuff like Orchestration/RAG requiring CPUs.

But I'm predicting parts of localized inference to be handled by CPUs more and more... as models like Gemma get  lightweight in the future.

Not every robot https://t.co/YTHPm63Pxi


Summary: Long SIVE with $2B+ valuation target on Jabil supply-chain win; secondary bullish lean on JBL as the hyperscaler conduit.

This is finally supply chain mapping validation with $SIVE.

$JBL is ****** massive and Sivers lasers now will likely go into Jabil's hyperscalers clients like $AMZN, $GOOGL.

This is such a structural change and I would personally value Sivers over $2B+ after official confirmation.

@aleabitoreddit Thank you for this awesome pick and your epic level research Serenity.


It's probably extremely bullish for the Neocloud segment like $NBIS (and even $CRWV) more than markets think.

Summary: Bullish on Neocloud names NBIS and CRWV on hyperscaler buildout delay spillover; Jensen Huang endorsement of NBIS cited.

Jensen Huang from $NVDA:

“ $NBIS will take care of you. “ https://t.co/lIRrnAC3fc

I’ve been thinking about this report more from last month…

It’s probably extremely bullish for the Neocloud segment like $NBIS (and even $CRWV) more than markets think.

Because of the hyperscaler buildout delay spillover.

And partly why $META might have signed a $27B deal. https://t.co/z6kY5Kbru5


Summary: Long Nextronics (8147) on CPO supplier thesis: 2x fwd P/E by 2028 implies 10x re-rating to $2B+ MC; NVDA named as key customer driving upside.

So here's the napkin math I did on Nextronics (8147) when I went long.

They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules.

And I modeled around 2 FWD p/e for 2028, which is why I think risk-reward is very compelling for a potential 10x rerating to ~$2B+ MC in 2028.

Just for their CPO exposure:

-> CPO connector runs roughly $15 to $25
-> ELS thermal cages, maybe ~$50 from est.

18 units per switch: 18x50 = ~$900
CPO Connectors: 72 Optical Engines per switch 72 x $15 = $1,080
(If $NVDA scales their Spectrum-X switch, it goes to $1,920 for CPO connectors).

Total Nextronics Content: ~$1,980 (rounded to $2k for calculations) in conservative case.

Implied BOM % of rack: 0.08%. Maybe ~1.5% of switch.

This looks microscopic to institutions so it probably is ignored.

Is it material to Nextronics, a ~$200m company?

Yes, absolute massive.

For calculations: Applying 50% haircut to Nextronics' share of the Nvidia connector market/cage market because of multi-source.

And I’m using GS projections, and assuming $AVGO, $MRVL, ASIC CPO ecosystem is 30% size of $NVDA.

Net Income Margin: 22.4% (at 38% GM)- 24.0% (at 40% GM).

But going off other projections from just, a rack shipments:

2026: CPO revenue ~10.1M, net income (22.4%)

~2.26M + $12.5M base = $14.7M (540k units for connectors, cage, 40K units, already divided by 50%)

2027: CPO revenue: ~$172M, net income (22.4%): ~$38.53M = $51.03M (~8M units for connectors, ~1.03M units for cage)

2028 scale up expansion: CPO revenue: $450m, net income: $100.93M, ~$11.3M base (~40M units for connectors, 2.98M unit for cages, eg. Nvidia ELS volume is 19.9M)

So implied fwd p/e 15.4x for 2026, 4.45x for 2027, 2x for 2028.

Of course at scale, blended margins might go down, there might be other players bringing market share down to like 25%, etc. and projections might be more or less than GS.

But regardless seems highly asymmetrical even if I'm off by a whole 50%.

2028 is usually the massive re-rating for CPO players, 2026 is still really early.

Hope my math is right, but 20x fwd p/e multiple would be $2.26B MC.

Even if we drop:

->  market share to just 15%.
-> compress their net income margin down to 14%.
-> connector ASP to $10.

At a 20x multiple, the stock would still achieve a ~4.5x return to a $1B+ market cap.

We'll see if this is right or not. (NFA, just speculative financial modeling)

@aleabitoreddit It'd be great if you included your revenue models and projections whenever you share positions you enter.

I know in the past you've said it's to simplify for retail, but easier to build conviction when we can see your reasoning and actual numbers (and allow us to double check).


They're the $NVDA CPO supplier for CPO connectors and cage thermal modules


Summary: Bearish IREN near-term: ATM dilution wipes current shareholders before any long entry; implied bullish NBIS as the better-performing alternative.

There's a reason $IREN is down -7.9% YTD.

While $NBIS is up 61.1% YTD.

The amount of delusion buying into a $6,000,000,000 ATM is unreal.

Even after this, IREN AMC bagholders still can't admit they're wrong?

Markets are the biggest arbiter of truth, and massive performance difference between Nebius and Iren is telling.

As I said before, the marketcap for $IREN will keep going up, but people's share values will decrease.

That's how ATMs work. Excessive ATMs are not accretive to current shareholders.

It's better to let all existing bagholders get wiped out first, then go long after the ATM is finished.

@aleabitoreddit Too bad you fked up being an iren bear


Summary: Bearish IREN: calls current holders exit liquidity in a $6B ATM, warns community is encouraging bagholder behavior.

@NieMehrKrieg Sometimes it's best to just tax harvest and long an asset that might actually appreciate in value.

Current holders are just exit liquidity for $IREN $6,000,000,000 ATM. And the community tries their best to encourage others to baghold with them.

@aleabitoreddit You’re right but for many of us the question is where do we go from here? I am down 20% Should I be holding? What do you think?


Summary: Long IQE with 10x to $1B+ market cap target, contingent on photonics pivot and balance sheet clean-up.

In my original thesis, I cited landmark was a benchmark at $3.8B with less inp reactor capacity than $IQE.

But $IQE had debt but a lot of assets, just needed to refactor all those toward photonics + finish asset sales to clear up balance sheet for re-rating.

I thought 10x to $1B+ was possible, we'll see.

@aleabitoreddit What's the approximate price target, boss?


Summary: Bullish quantum sector; top pick ALRIB as machine/equipment supplier benefiting from R&D capex; IONQ/RGTI/QBTS also benefit regardless of which platform wins.

$ALRIB is my favorite for that sector, especially now that markets found out $MSFT Quantum buys from them.

It's still a bit early, but the machine sellers benefit from the entire R&D capex cycle today and you don't need to pick between $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS, $GOOGL or others winning.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think of the recent quantum sector ramp? And which is your favourite?


Summary: Bullish on photonics names AEHR, LITE, AAOI, and SIVE; favors laser exposure.

@peedgdev Bullish on $AEHR, but not my #1 pick.

I'm actually a fan of $LITE and $AAOI in the photonics space the most. Then highest upside is $SIVE.

I like laser exposure the most.

@aleabitoreddit Is AEHR your most bullish pick?


I'm actually a fan of $LITE and $AAOI in the photonics space the most


Summary: Long 5 Taiwan CPO photonics stocks: Win Semi, Shunsin, Foci, MSSCorp, Nextronics; expects Nextronics to 3x and others to gain attention post-Computex/NVDA event.

Win Semi (3105) is almost never mentioned in photonics analyst reports.

But they’ll probably show up as an important bottleneck for scaling lasers next year.

Glad to see Shunsin (6451) start picking up steam from my TW longs.

Foci (3363), MSSCorp (6830) should start getting some attention too imo after Computex / $NVDA conference next month.

Nextronics (8147), I personally kinda expect to 3x down the road.. once disposition is over.

5 of my favorite CPO exposure longs over in Taiwan, especially at current prices.


Foci (3363), MSSCorp (6830) should start getting some attention too imo after Computex / $NVDA conference next month


Summary: AMZN underrated robotics play on opex/automation upside; TSLA among general-purpose humanoid winners over 5–10 years.

@Dog_Ziller I actually think $AMZN for robotics is extremely underrated.

Since since there’s immediate practical upside to lower opex + headcount for automation.

But for general purpose $TSLA, Unitree, Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agibot, Agility, and others should do well.

@aleabitoreddit What are the robotics/humanoids that will pop off in the next 5-10years?


for general purpose $TSLA, Unitree, Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agibot, Agility, and others should do well


$IREN is a horrendous long. I can't imagine anyone that cares about portfolio appreciation to buy into a $6B ATM while executives award themselves record high SBC

Summary: Bearish IREN: $6B dilution machine with record SBC and a power moat that no longer exists.

$IREN is a horrendous long. I can’t imagine anyone that cares about portfolio appreciation to buy into a $6B ATM while executives award themselves record high SBC.

People are just buying in to get diluted because of a promise of secured power (which is no longer a moat, it was last year)

@aleabitoreddit wait so u don't like $IREN


Nebius is the clear winner... they're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex... ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT

Summary: Long NBIS as clear Neocloud winner on superior financing + $46B backlog; short CRWV on crippling $1.5B+ annual debt interest; cautious on IREN due to dilution risk via ATM.

My thoughts on $NBIS, $IREN, $CRWV and the current Neocloud market.

One of them ends up as the next AWS in 5 years:

My guess it’s Nebius.

It's not winner takes all (DigitalOcean is there with Amazon), but there's clearly superior structures and likely winners.

The downside:

-> Low chance of rate cuts from Iran conflict.

->Broader market doesn't appear to want to fund the CapEx cycle. But want to reap the benefits

With $IREN:

We get it, 4.5GW = X revenue. But who is funding the GPUs?

Whoever is buying into the $6,000,000,000 ATM right now.

The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted.

The reality is, they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models.

And they didn't find other financing methods, so they went through ATMs because of a cult community that will buy into anything they sell.

However, I agree it will be accretive long term. Just not as much for the retail buying in now.

With $CRWV:

They did everything right... $NVDA backing. Hyperscaler clients...

But they financed completely wrong. Now, $1.5B+ yearly debt interest is eating Coreweave alive and cuts into FCF.

Almost like credit card debt, Coreweave gets a job to pay off that debt, but eventually, the debt interest is too high that working doesn't really cover that and expansion too.

If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest.

With $NBIS:

They're doing as much as they can right... $NVDA funding $2B to fund capex.

Convertible note offerings (convertible note short hedging is annoying for short term price appreciation).

But this is the best way to do financing structures with much lower interest than Coreweave.

They now have ~$46B+ in backlog from $META and $MSFT, two of the most profitable hyperscalers out there, without direct OpenAI linked contagion like Coreweave.

And unlike others; there’s appreciation from their other companies (Clickhouse equity appreciation: avride robotaxi scale up; toloka triple digit growth)

From my take: Nebius is the clear winner.

However, current macro environments does not favor short term holders across the board with indexes dropping 7%.

Especially so if they're buying into active ATMs.

Long term, the benefits when they scale up eg. $NBIS Q4 2026 (yes, even $IREN), will be immense.


If any company goes down, $CRWV is the first to go the massive debt load and interest


The winners will be whoever enters after holders get fully diluted... they don't have enough funding to monetize their capacity through GPUs without colo models


Summary: Long AAOI on continued growth from optical transceiver demand and Made in America supply chain tailwinds.

Who thought it was a good idea to give Tangerine Peel inspired companies the funds…

To short the fastest growing names in photonics and memory?

$SNDK and $AAOI have been on a hyperbolic run.

And I see names like AAOI continuing to grow as optical transceiver + Made in America supply chains grow.


Summary: Expects IQE, AXTI, SIVE and related photonic supply chain names to compound another triple-digits as institutional capital pours in; SIVE especially highlighted on upcoming Nasdaq listing.

My $IQE call… might actually outperform my legendary $AXTI thesis soon?

It’s only been 2 months:

Now it's up over +316% after institutions started publicly buying… and keeps going up.

Fun time for critical chokepoints like $ALRIB, $SIVE, and $SOI recently in Europe.

Probably expect them all to compound another triple digits from here, even after all their rallies.

Retail is just extremely early for the first time.

So, expect a lot of institutional capital to pour into these critical supply chains companies soon, especially $SIVE after Nasdaq listing.

@ravietweet Not exactly! I'm just a tad more familiar with photonic supply chains than I am with energy so I like picking potential winners.

Just wanted to introduce $IQE into the equation like i did with $AXTI, so I could do a "Did you Listen Anon?" post 3 months later if it turns out https://t.co/yGoVCwTr9p


My $IQE call… might actually outperform my legendary $AXTI thesis soon? It's only been 2 months: Now it's up over +316% after institutions started publicly buying… and keeps going up


Summary: Bullish on HIMS and TEM as a combined personalized AI medicine platform; entire human population as TAM with inelastic demand.

Personalized AI medicine will likely be huge.

Nobody wants to die early.

Combining $HIMS to $TEM has immense potential.

Here's just one example with Gitlab's CEO:

> In 2023, Sijbrandij was diagnosed with osteosarcoma
> In July 2024, he announced the cancer had returned, despite multiple treatments
> By late 2024, he had reached the absolute end of standard of care medical options.
> Rather than accepting death, Sijbrandij decided to treat his cancer the same way he built GitLab as an engineering problem
> He began feeding ChatGPT massive amounts of his personal medical data from scans, blood test results, and tissue sample data.
> ChatGPT and AI made novel targeted treatments after identifying mutations, then how to attack them
> From there, he applied for unapproved, experimental drug and received it
> The approach worked. Sijbrandij managed to stall and turn around a terminal prognosis with AI.

We've seen this success story with Gitlab's CEO ( $TEM was explicitly listed the partner he used for the bulk RNA sequencing of his tumor ).

As well as someone curing their own dog with AI recently.

The potential if you can combine $HIMS (DTC distribution network) and $TEM (Personalized sequencing and AI treatment) into a scalable product is massive (though extremely challenging).

The entire human population is the TAM.

And similar to the $AXTI InP situation with hyperscalers:

People will pay anything to not die (bottleneck). This is just a hint into where the future of healthcare is heading.


Combining $HIMS to $TEM has immense potential. The potential if you can combine $HIMS (DTC distribution network) and $TEM (Personalized sequencing and AI treatment) into a scalable product is massive


Personally think it heads back to $200+ over time (repricing doesn't happen in a day) since it's a growing money printer

Summary: Long RDDT to $200+ on blowout earnings + 50% revenue growth; still cheap despite post-quarter bounce.

Finally vindicated on my $RDDT long 6 weeks later.

Funny thing is…

It’s still down 28% YTD after that absolute blowout of quarter earnings and projections.

Personally think it heads back to $200+ over time (repricing doesn’t happen in a day) since it’s a growing money printer.

$RDDT is getting ridiculous.

Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months.

If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous.

And they’re growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth.

If https://t.co/nRrjjUPxte


I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC. IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC.

Summary: Long Win Semi at $4.1B MC; semi-monopoly foundry chokepoint in optical transceivers, LEO/Starlink, and humanoids with parabolic demand ahead; 2027 fwd multiple seen as sandbagged.

I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC.

I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM).

IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC.

They sit in almost every major chokepoints:

-> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO supply chain.
-> As $AVGO, $LITE, $MTSI, $SIVE InP foundries for optical transceivers
-> then as the body/eyes of humanoids as the GaAs foundry for TOF lasers possibly mapping to Boston Dynamic Atlas
-> With legacy from MediaTek / Qualcomm / $AAPL from their previous business.

But Win appears to be bottom of the legacy drag (like with $SOI), with optical as one of their largest growth vectors.

Then... Win has the largest TAM expansion/revenue acceleration out of almost any foundry:

With: LEO, humanoids / CW laser, 800g, 1.6t, 3.2t optical transceiver massive ramp up over the next few years.

Especially with Broadcom as their anchor client ( $AVGO owns ~5% of Win).

$NVDA doesn't care who makes the lasers, whether it's $LITE or $COHR.

They just care if there's enough.

There's not enough.

-> Demand for CW lasers will likely go parabolic. (they make the lasers that companies like $SIVE designs)

-> Demand for LEO satellites (SpaceX Starlink) will likely go parabolic.

-> Demand for humanoids will likely go parabolic.

As, Win Semi sits as a semi-monopoly chokepoint in the three most frontier and fastest growing industries for photonics/AI, robotics/humanoids, and space.

Especially with Optical TAM explosion:

Win fwd earnings for 2027 roughly in ~35x range, I do think this is sandbagging it and forward multiples will end up dirt cheap.

Win will largely benefit from TAM expansion and accelerated revenue growth.

Of course: Win will win. So I am long Win.


Summary: Bullish IQE, AXTI, and Sivers Semiconductors; confident institutional follow-in buying as laser chips power hyperscaler connectivity.

Bro everyone was doubting me on names like $IQE.

Yet how come… all these institutions from UBS or Point72 buy in after my thesis posts?

Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI?

I’m very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others…

with links to $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and other hyperscalers.

@aleabitoreddit Another institutional buyer joined the IQE party! @aleabitoreddit https://t.co/TYu5W4yzFo


Not sure if Swedish media bearposting $SIVE realized who found $AXTI?


I'm very confident institutions will likely follow-in soon given Sivers lasers power $MRVl, $JBL, Ayar, and others


$6,000,000,000 ATM dilution being a structural overhang… There's going to be half the market cap minted out of thin air, then sold into the open market

Summary: Short IREN on $6B ATM structural dilution overhang eroding shareholder equity on every rally; contrasts with NBIS outperformance.

When is it time for the $IREN bagholders to admit I was right about the:

$6,000,000,000 ATM dilution being a structural overhang?

-> $NBIS is up 48% YTD
-> $IREN is down 13% YTD.

While IREN’s marketcap goes up (ATMs benefit the company), shareholder equity goes down.

This is the warning about excessive dilution that people don’t understand or want to hear.

Likely in every rally to raise funds to monetize their GW capacity though GPUs:

There’s going to be half the market cap minted out of thin air, then sold into the open market.


Summary: Long AEHR to $420 (~2yr) on growing hyperscaler/AI qualification pipeline; cites AAOI as precedent.

$420 looks inevitable on $AEHR.

Maybe 2 years?

Don’t think I’ve seen so many hyperscalers or AI companies qualifying a small $1.1B company before?

Last time was $AAOI back at $25 and now it’s $104 a few months later. https://t.co/PaYZoCmMNl


I ended up taking positions on following GS... it looks very material relative to MC as Nvidia's CPO program scales up

Summary: Long Nextronics (8147), ~$210M MC CPO/cage thermal supplier to NVDA; material upside as CPO program scales, flagged by Goldman Sachs.

Nextronics Engineering Corp listed on TWSE as 3038.TW

Just putting it out there with the Goldman Sachs $NVDA supplier note.

There’s a very interesting ~$210m MC company Nextronics (8147) that I ended up taking positions on following GS.

That supplies CPO connectors and Cage Thermal Modules to Nvidia CPO supply chains.

They’re also in $AMZN supply chains and Humanoids. And massage chairs too.

Just thought I’d share an interesting idea (NFA/DYOR), I’ll do a BOM analysis later, but it looks very material relative to MC as Nvidia’s CPO program scales up.

Of course risks are multi-sourcing/getting designed out, but there’s probably a reason why GS flagged this micro supplier multiple times among $4-10B+ companies.

Today I learned there’s a $NVDA CPO supplier that builds massage chairs and US Humanoids on the side.

The Toto toilet HBM meme keeps showing up everywhere.


Summary: Long-term hold on LITE; fully booked through 2028 with NVDA as anchor, TAM expanding from $15B to $154B, but short-term direction is a coin flip.

$LITE basically does everything, CW/EML lasers, optical engines, etc.

I used CPO growth curves mainly for pure play names like $SIVE or MSSCorps that didn't have previous exposure.

For Lumentum you want to look at overall TAM which was $15B -> $154B since they're kinda targeting most things, including CPO.

They're basically fully booked through 2028, especially with $NVDA that's the biggest indicator. I don't see how they don't beat earning projections.

But the "beat" is pretty much expected, so dunno which way it goes short term and a lot of it is option flow/coin flip.

Directionally long term it's still a hold in my view, anyone's guess what happens short term.

@aleabitoreddit Hey @aleabitoreddit, curious about your take on something.

There's a Korean finfluencer community that's been heavily influenced by your CPO thesis .
But right after LITE's earnings beat, several of these channels are calling for a sell-on, saying "go to cash and buy the dip"


Americans just understand hyperscaler demand and photonics better than random retail and media in Europe. If Swedish retail want to transfer their frontier laser company over to American institutions and miss out on the upside, it's their choice.

Summary: Bullish on the Swedish frontier laser/photonics company (SIVE/SIVEF context); American institutions buying the upside Europeans are missing.

Sandvik AB listed on Nasdaq Stockholm as SAND.ST

@princebtc28 It’s not fomo. Americans just understand hyperscaler demand and photonics better than random retail and media in Europe.

If Swedish retail want to transfer their frontier laser company over to American institutions and miss out on the upside, it’s their choice.

@aleabitoreddit you seeing the dispersion between sive and sivef today? 10% difference... americans fomoing


Summary: Implicitly endorses going long IBKR into earnings, citing new account growth as a catalyst.

You’re welcome $IBKR?

But it legitimately is the better brokerage right now, I’m surprised $HOOD doesn’t have international stocks. https://t.co/yMEZOXtI9w

How crazy is it to legit long $IBKR into earnings tmrw due to the thousands of brand new @aleabitoreddit 'serenity' accounts started in the last 2 months?


Summary: Pivoted into SiPh/CPO names AEHR, SIVE, SOI; still long memory and expects SK Hynix/Samsung earnings to trigger a rally.

@B38B37 I personally pivoted concentration in memory more toward siph/cpo names like $AEHR $SIVE and $SOI.

I still have a good amount of memory exposure but less than earlier this year. However I do expect the upcoming sk Hynix and Samsung earnings to trigger another rally

@aleabitoreddit Thanks a ton as usual boss. Would you still keep exposure to $MU / SK HYNIX or go more heavily into $SIVE $AEHR $SOI instead ?


I do expect the upcoming sk Hynix and Samsung earnings to trigger another rally


Summary: Long AEHR with higher concentration on new silicon photonics T1 customer; bullish AAOI in a supercycle where shorts face infinite losses.

yeah i decided have a higher concentration on $AEHR after the new silicon photonics t1 customer like $LITE, $AVGO, or $COHR.

a ton of of retail investors misunderstood qualification cycles -> volume ramp so they went short.

its crazy to see retail try and short $AAOI and $AEHR just to face infinite losses in a supercycle.

@aleabitoreddit Wow what a beast !! 🚀🚀 Another great call !!


its crazy to see retail try and short $AAOI and $AEHR just to face infinite losses in a supercycle


If they $RDDT knows people's info for account verification. The sad reality is that their targeted ad revenue goes up like $META

Summary: Account verification would boost RDDT's targeted ad revenue, implying long-term upside.

@SidG1293 If they $RDDT knows people’s info for account verification. The sad reality is that their targeted ad revenue goes up like $META.

@aleabitoreddit Off topic here, but what are your thoughts on $RDDT's announcement on crackdown on bots as well as potentially introducing account verification?

Couldn't this in the long run take away their 'moat' of anonymity


this is why I don't like companies with single customer concentration risk

Summary: Bearish POET after Marvell cancelled purchase orders; single-customer concentration risk, Marvell was basically the entire bull case.

$MRVL cancelled $POET purchase orders after the CFO went out and violated NDA when getting angry.

Ouch to Poet, down -46%, this is why I don’t like companies with single customer concentration risk.

On the bright side for $POET holders they do have $420m cash buffering downside risk and a few other customers (though Marvell was basically the entire Poet bull case story)

It does look like Marvell delayed their own timelines as well by doing this.

That being said, the packaging side is easier to design out for Marvell and they still need to source lasers.