Summary: Long Soitec ~2.5x in ~1 year on silicon photonics/CPO substrate ramp + bottom of legacy drag cycle; AAOI implied faster re-rating.

@excu4e16421 $SOI is slow rerating compared to $AAOI but I do think it’s the bottom of their legacy drag cycle but they get upside from silicon photonics/cpo ramp up with the substrates they provide.

Maybe 2.5x in a years time (which is still good, not everything triples in 3 months)

@aleabitoreddit How much upside does Soitec really have from here? it serve as infrastructure base for optical communications, is the upside less explosive ？And is there a risk that its existing cyclical businesses continue to hold back the stock even as its photonics business grows? Thanks


Summary: Bullish on WOLF post-restructuring, LPKFF for glass substrates/LIDE tech at $169M MC with 10x upside, and MTRN for Beryllium dominance; all passed on for now but flagged as interesting.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

$WOLF was probably the most interesting one up there after restructuring.

$LPKFF also for glass substrates and they own the laser induced deep etching at a $169m MC, so possibly most explosive 10x upside.

$MTRN is probably the most stable one up there with decently high upside given it owns the mountain for ~65% of the world's Beryllium.

There were a few others but just the fundamentals were either really bad or their bottleneck was too niche.

$LPTH's bottleneck for example spreads across both defense, AI, drones, etc.

$AXTI's bottleneck was so big and AI is such a big sector so it doesn't need to be spread across (but InP is used in a lot of other sectors too).

@aleabitoreddit After AXTI and LPTH, what was the 3rd best that you passed on for now?


$MTRN is probably the most stable one up there with decently high upside given it owns the mountain for ~65% of the world's Beryllium


I'm long $TSEM as an asymmetrical upside for upstream photonics foundry layer. I expect the $NVDA GTC conference to be that catalyst that brings it to premium valuations.

Summary: Long TSEM as asymmetric upstream photonics foundry play; expects NVDA GTC catalyst next week to reprice stock to premium valuations on SiPh capacity leadership and 70% pre-reserved capacity.

I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics.

My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi.

Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week:

I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst.

Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T silicon photonics last month (hint hint for GTC), likely pushing the downstream players to use it.

And now, Tower is the leading supplier of 1.6T SiPh PICs and the primary foundry for scale-up CPO architectures. (the other being global foundries)

From my forward est:
2028 Forward P/E: ~16.8x to ~18.1x

(Tower set a target $2.84B revenue by 2028, with ~31.7% operating margin, ~$750M in net profit)

The thing to note is over 70% of their planned SiPh capacity is already reserved through 2028. And photonics haven't even ramped up yet.

So, I expect them to strongly beat earning projections due to extreme photonics scaling + allocations price hikes that's not modeled into projections.

Also, $TSEM is heavily de-risked by 70% of capacity already being reserved. MC is likely due to $TSEM being a very obscure upstream player in the photonics supply chain.

But I expect the $NVDA GTC conference to be that catalyst that brings it to premium valuations.

I'm long $TSEM as an asymmetrical upside for upstream photonics foundry layer.


Summary: Favorites: AXTI & SOI (semi-monopoly substrates), TSEM & COHR (compounders), SIVE highest upside as next LITE, AAOI second.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

I tend to like semi-monopolies... So $AXTI and $SOI on substrate level are probably kinda my favorites?

$TSEM and $COHR were my two steady compounders.

As for highest upside, I do think $SIVE takes the crown as the next potential $LITE. Maybe $AAOI second place.  And $AXTI third?

@aleabitoreddit Out of all of these, which is your favorite company(and undervalued)


$TSEM and $COHR were my two steady compounders


Summary: Long LITE long-term; ~8-12% of Google TPU BOM not yet priced in, with ramp accelerating in 2028.

@mhayavkay You do realize a lot of the ramp happens 2028 right?

For stuff like $LITE which is ~8-12 of Google TPU BOM, I don't quite think it's priced in long term yet (short term yes, it rallied 70% 1M). https://t.co/ZFfhiLTrXI

@aleabitoreddit Nice list, but I think because they have run up a lot, everything is priced in already.


Summary: Long BESI/BESIY on supply chain importance of hybrid bonding to advanced packaging, though limited upside vs peers.

$BESIY / $BESI was in my informal bottleneck ETF! Still need to catch up to the $LRCX, $AMAT and BESI news though.

Does definitely validate how important hybrid bonding is to advanced packaging. So good long just based on supply chain importance.

But don't really see it going up 300% like other names above like $AAOI.


Summary: Bullish SNDK: 2027 forward P/E looks low and growth trajectory is compelling.

@yepyepmf Where did I ever say $SNDK was the weakest link?

It’s just the most volatile memory company out the bunch but forward p/e for 2027 looks low, so the growth trajectory looks hilarious. https://t.co/OFhiqtOH4O

@aleabitoreddit Interesting, out of all Memory Supercycle companies you believe $SNDK to be the weakest link?


Summary: Long INTC multi-year on US gov foundry backstop; asymmetric risk/reward despite weak near-term fundamentals.

I don't think anyone expected $INTC to deliver everything in 1-2 quarter.

It's one of the most asymmetrical longs there are, since it's a waiting game with infinite backstop from US Gov to buildout their foundry.

I'd say it's a long on policy, not fundamentals. In terms of timing the amount of short term way OTM calls are a bit worrysome.

But it shouldn't really matter if you're long for the next few years.

@aleabitoreddit any thoughts on intc sell off? is it a good time to buy?


Summary: Bullish DPRO: infrastructure setup + capacity ramp + subcontractor model means earnings beats algos may not yet price in.

Pigybacking off of this, meant to say ev/revenue not p/s above.

But yeah I looked at $PDYN before too, interesting company. Also there's nothing too new with the $DPRO post since it's already popular on finx.

It's just really nuanced with the infrastructure setup + large capacity ramp + no flashy contracts since it's a subcontractor -> hits Q reports that algos might not price in.

A lot of people missed that aspect, so just wanted to post my own thoughts about it.

@aleabitoreddit Two drone plays that go together beautifully.

$DPRO - the drones
$PDYN - the AI swarm software


Summary: Long NBIS on strategic NVDA-backed financing; short IREN on toxic ATM dilution suppressing share value.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

$NBIS vs. $IREN.

The difference is night and day.

Nebius: $2B dilution from $NVDA, zero immediate selling pressure to the public float

Iren: $6B dilution from ATM into selling pressure into the open market. This extracts liquidity directly from the public and suppresses momentum

Very clear, which company leads to higher share value appreciation from capex financing.

One is strategic with Nvidia, the other is toxic financing.


Iren: $6B dilution from ATM into selling pressure into the open market. This extracts liquidity directly from the public and suppresses momentum


Summary: Bullish on MSFT LEAPS via OpenAI liquidity unlock catalyst; bullish META post blowout earnings despite Avocado delay given ad revenue resilience.

@TheVantaBlack Not yet, but leaps on $MSFT, especially with OpenAI liquidity unlock feels more compelling here?

Same with $META with blowout earnings, delaying Avocado launch doesn’t materially change earnings much short term since they sell ads but does impact optics.


$META with blowout earnings, delaying Avocado launch doesn't materially change earnings much short term


one of my biggest positions … strongly believe Intel is one of the rare opportunities in the market … this is a high conviction long on US policy

Summary: High-conviction long INTC on US government/policy backstop + foundry TAM expansion; ~7x upside to TSM's market cap. Also endorses TSM as a long.

$INTC is basically the $RKLB to SpaceX and is one of my biggest positions.

Everyone knows it will catch up to TSM as the de-facto semi arm of the US government with Nvidia to Apple backing it.

It’s more of a matter of time.

At a $234B MC ( $TSM is $1.5T), ~7X return just for waiting.

Whether it’s in 2 years or 10 years, I strongly believe Intel is one of the rare opportunities in the market where you can invest in the White House and infinite money printer subsidizing the cash burning foundry development.

It’s not winner takes all, the TAM of semis will keep going up, $TSM is a great long, but US hyperscalers from Google to Nvidia would be pressured to use Intel when available.

United States won’t let Intel fail, this is a high conviction long on US policy.


Summary: Still buying SK Hynix despite 300% rise; projected operating income to surpass Apple next year justifies continued accumulation.

I like to tell all the people who draw charts that stocks are more about fundamentals and catalysts.

I'm still buying into SK Hynix for example even after the 300% 1Y rise at $500B because their operating income (~$156B) is projected to surpass $AAPL ($3.8T) next year.

Obviously hyperscaler revenues are more persistent vs. memory (unless it becomes structural).

But just given the sheer amount of money printing, can just be confident to buy even after a 10% increase the previous day.

@aleabitoreddit How do you get the confidence to play names that doubled the past month or more?


Summary: RDDT is author's top pick; still holding conviction as AI-disruption concerns are misplaced for this name.

Still doing research into software segment for opportunities. $SPOT, $NFLX is something that's not disrupted by AI because majority of it is licensing. Netflix drop is more multifaceted bc of acquisition.Those two were richly valued though.

$DUOL make more sense. Dont know enough about $ADBE.

It's a good time to figure out what gets disrupted, and what has no material effect (but gets sold off in the bucket).

$RDDT was my top pick, I'm still looking for others.

@aleabitoreddit it's been bit by the bug that has devoured $ADBE $DUOL $SPOT and $INTU


Summary: Long AXTI as top photonics pick; also bullish LITE/COHR/AAOI on demand ramp, IQE/AXTI for upside, Soitec/TSEM for 2-3x over 2 years.

$AXTI is my personal favorite since inp substrate/feedstock is used across any photonics bottleneck.

I just need someone to join their board and tell them that they're a semi-monopoly and to price hike.

For timeframes:
$LITE, $COHR, $AAOI probably get their time to shine next two years from extreme demand ramp.

The exponential curve for pluggables probably dwindles a tiny bit in 2028 from cpo? So would be more cautious with innolight/eoptolink type players.

$AAOI manufactures their own lasers, so I'm sure they'll get qualified if there's any time for a pivot.

TLDR: For safest, $COHR. They're widely diversified.

Highest upside probably $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI given their small starting point.

Significant upside for Soitec, $TSEM could probably double or triple in 2 years. But probably dead capital for 2026.

@aleabitoreddit What is your favorite photonics play at the moment? Even after such massive runs do you still see significant upside over the next 12 months or are these more long term plays?


$LITE, $COHR, $AAOI probably get their time to shine next two years from extreme demand ramp


For safest, $COHR. They're widely diversified


Highest upside probably $AAOI, $IQE, $AXTI given their small starting point


Significant upside for Soitec, $TSEM could probably double or triple in 2 years

Soitec listed on Euronext Paris as SOI.PA


$TSEM could probably double or triple in 2 years


I think there's a lot of room to go but certainly depends on execution

Summary: Bullish AAOI; not yet crowded, still entering radars, plenty of upside if execution delivers.

@yianisz Agreed! But I don’t quite think it’s crowded quite yet.

Most people are in names like $LITE and $COHR and $AAOI is just getting out on their radar.

I think there’s a lot of room to go but certainly depends on execution.

All fair points and this is exactly the right framework to pressure-test the bull case.

Here’s how I see it.

$AAOI valuation is no longer cheap. At ~$79 the stock is trading on forward execution, not optionality.

The easy re-rate phase (legacy CATV > AI pivot) is behind us.


Summary: Bullish HIMS: network/DTC moat is massive, regulatory hurdles cleared, upside clear with latent monetization streams.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Did you just skip over the entire post?

Network capture and retail distribution network at masses is $HIMS moat, not the pills they sell.

And that moat is massive. This cannot be understated for latent monetization streams.

eg. $HOOD with cross-selling new products.

$HIMS is genuinely the first of its kind to reach this sort of scale DTC for healthcare. And there's always going to be bear cases like with $HOOD with $18.

The upside is clearly there with $HIMS and all their main regulatory problems were cleared last Friday.

It's more of whether or not they can figure out new monetization avenues.

@aleabitoreddit HIMS has no moat. it is a glorified drug store. they don't make their own drugs, they repackaged other people's drugs and resale them. HIMS has no patients, no moat, nada. HIMS is all marketing. They can only drive up meaningful top line by increasing ad spend. There's nothing


Summary: Long VPG as a hidden Tesla Optimus supply-chain play; $500–$1,200 revenue per robot with 10M-unit target implies massive upside for a $574M company.

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'

I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m).

This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus.

Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play:

For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for each.

It's a pretty open secret by now that VPG is likely a main supplier for Tesla Optimus Ramp.

This was first discovered by Citron Research (not taking credit for this).

In April 2025, Citron Research published a report calling VPG the "Hidden Tesla Optimus Play."

They pointed out that VPG announced a "major design win" with a humanoid developer in November 2023, right before Tesla revealed the Optimus Gen 2 in December 2023.

Citron: "The evidence is conclusive: VPG is not only supplying Tesla Optimus but expects substantial revenues from this ramp-up, revenue currently invisible to the market due to confidentiality"

I've cross-checked with recent Sellside/Buyside analysts much later in 2025/2026 regarding VPG:

Many from Signia Capital mention for $VPG: "The most notable application would be Tesla’s Optimus robot, which was prototyped in 2022 and is targeting production in 2026".

However, this was completely forgotten given robotics ramp from Optimus and others were nonexistent through 2023-2025 for the prototyping phase.

However, given OpenAI's push to robotics last week per Bloomberg:

I expect robotics to hit the inflection point this year.

This company is extremely solid fundamentally already:

- $79.7 Million Revenue (up 5.3% Y/Y but this should ramp up exponentially due to robotics sector)
- 40.5% Gross Margins
- ~$65 Million Net Cash ($86m Cash, $20m Debt)

$VPG has a material science/patent moat for Bulk Metal Foil, introduced Z-Foil technology, and is vertically integrated. Can't say I understand it all, but it's the reason why $TSLA has been prototyping and scaling their Optimus iterations with Vishay.

As for BOM:

There are BOM estimates like:

Legs/Locomotion: ~$21,300 (38% of cost): concentrated in high-torque actuators.

Core Stability: ~$15,600 (28%): structural torso and shoulder mechanisms.

Dexterous Hands: ~$9,500 (17%): Actuators and VPG-style sensors.

Compute/AI: ~$2,100 (4%): Dual FSD chips and 8-camera array.

But generally, we can estimate 3-8% of each robots value is est. $VPG since Shoshani explicitly stated that VPG expects to capture between $500 and $1,200 in revenue per robot in ERs.

Elon likes to claim big numbers, but if you take it at face value "10-million-unit annual target at Giga Texas"

10M robots/year × $750/robot = $7.5 Billion in annual revenue for VPG.

Considering $VPG is a small $574M company deep in the robotics supply chain right now, I entered long positions given the asymmetrical upside

- of high probability correlation to $TSLA Optimus supply chains
- high BOM of each robot deployed.
- very clean balance sheet, which is rare.

Please do your own research, this is my own personal thought process of why I entered this long.

I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m).

This is an end-to-end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the $RKLB to Ondas.

$ONDS went from ($.51 -> $15, 13x) and was looking for an equivalent.

Here’s what markets (and myself missed).

Draganfly is a https://t.co/CQsR9Cem4K


Summary: Long XLU as a once-in-a-lifetime run on US grid/power modernization driven by AI capacity needs.

Elon is completely right when he sounds the alarm that power/grid is vital for US dominance in AI.

My call for the once in a lifetime run for $XLU (grid/power utilities ETF) is playing out real time.

New calls are already up ~100%+ in the week alone.

Power generation and the grid is a measurement of industrial capacity and the US has every motivation to modernize and expand it.

Electricity output is the single best proxy for industrial capacity


Summary: Long AXTI: photonics ramp, rising 7n InP prices, and China export controls on Japan tightening inventory over the next year.

@DanilSer33 $AXTI same view, photonics ramping up, 7n InP prices are going higher. China export controls on Japan will tighten inventory.

We’ll see how it plays out over the next year

@aleabitoreddit Nice
What’s your take on $axti?


$RDDT is probably the most compelling dip buy at $138, ~$26.5B MC. You don't get more profitable + high growth than Reddit.

Summary: Long RDDT at $138 dip: 54% forward growth, 34.7% net margin, zero AI disruption risk, money-printer fundamentals.

$RDDT is probably the most compelling dip buy at $138, ~$26.5B MC.

You don’t get more profitable + high growth than Reddit.

Forward 54% Y/Y growth rate coming off 70% ~$2.2B FY 2025 revenue.

Net profit margin is literally 34.7% of revenue and expanding because Reddit is so profitable.

Reddit gets sold off with the software bucket but has zero disruption from AI.

This is a money printer that is here to stay.

Price action makes you doubt your thesis sometimes, but the fundamentals of Reddit are way too compelling.


Summary: Likes both AVGO and MRVL here on a buy-and-wait basis; market misread AVGO's ASIC recognition timing and MRVL delay is already priced in.

$AVGO got sold off bc of their ASIC backlog but markets misunderstood how recognition timing works.

$MRVL makes a tiny bit more sense bc of Microsoft reportedly had a 6M delay with their Maia asics so revenue recognition might be delayed.

Obviously don’t need to time the market if you buy now and just wait a year but I like them both here too

Since my $SOXL sale on Monday at $66 we have seen a pretty sharp decline down to $50.

Yet, here is what I like in the rubble *today* related to chips:

1. $MRVL Marvell
Celestial AI acquisition = optical connectivity capabilities not being priced in. Maybe it works out, maybe https://t.co/2H2TfX9TP3


$IQE is definitely one of those moonshots "why didn't you tell me this earlier" if it ends up going 10x type picks

Summary: Bullish IQE as a high-risk moonshot with 10x potential on InP epiwafer capacity refactoring, despite dilution risk.

Thanks! $IQE is definitely one of those moonshots “why didn’t you tell me this earlier” if it ends up going 10x type picks.

But reason for a lot of upside is materially higher risk from debt and execution -> refactoring capacity toward InP epiwafers.

Just wanted to put my thesis out there and see how it goes, but it’s definitely not a trade for everyone due to high risk of dilution.

Agreed, it does remind me of Bitcoin miners, they have all the capacity just need to put it toward good use.

Serenity makes a compelling case here for a 10x of $IQE. Once upon a time I was focused exclusively on special situations in the HF world. This is a top notch pitch, reminds me of $iren and $cifr in early 2025


Summary: Bearish IREN: compares holders defending the $6B ATM to AMC bagholder-tier denial.

@MikeFReichmann If the $IREN community’s main response is to say mentioning the $6B ATM is communist propaganda paid off by the Soviet Union.

Sorry to say you’re in $AMC bagholderterritory. https://t.co/mK0TwgxArO

@aleabitoreddit Hard Agree I honenstly feel bad for $IREN holders at this point


Summary: InP supply-chain emergency validates bottleneck thesis: long AXTI on substrate scarcity, long POET/ALMU as alternatives, long COHR as Western substitute; potential disruption risk for LITE.

Executive Order: "President Trump orders HieFo to divest indium phosphide assets"

A follow-up report on the Jan 2nd EO shows that President Trump targeted HieFo's InP wafer fabrication operations of Emcore Corp.

As $AXTI and Sumitomo control ~80% of the supply chain (Fastmarket Research), by forcing the sale, the US likely ensures the InP supply chain remains available for US defense contractors and AI semiconductors.

The original reporting on the 2nd was broad regarding the "chip design and fabrication assets" with light references to InP.

But it's now clear this is now InP supply chains is becoming a silent emergency for the US government so the AI buildout continues.

This is further validation of the InP bottleneck thesis if the US President is now signing executive orders to gain access to the InP supply chain.

We'll likely see third order effects where:

-> US starts rushes engineering alternatives from $POET (optical interposers) to $ALMU (quantum dot)

-> InP bottleneck increase near term with $AXTI (InP supply chains + substrates)

-> Potential influence supply chain disruption of $LITE and optical suppliers (this is debated from analyst reports over stockpiled)

-> Western alternatives like $COHR becoming more critical after Sumitomo/JX are blocked off China material supply from export controls.

Markets are witnessing a supply shock happen real time with InP.

Here's the timeline this week:

Fastmarket Research, 2025:

US-based $AXTI and Japan's Sumitomo control nearly 80% of the InP market.

China Commerce Ministry - Jan 6 2026: China announces new export https://t.co/piaM9hnEw2


US starts rushes engineering alternatives from $POET (optical interposers)

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ


Western alternatives like $COHR becoming more critical after Sumitomo/JX are blocked off China material supply


Potential influence supply chain disruption of $LITE and optical suppliers


Summary: Bullish AAOI; insane guidance not yet priced in, expects significant upside.

@Meatusmax Uh if they price in $AAOI projections, definitely getting sent a lot higher. That guidance is insanity

@aleabitoreddit Is there more upside here in your opinion? Or do you think it’ll chop sideways for a bit?


Summary: Samsung 100% NAND price hike vs 33-38% estimates could push MU gross margins to 73-75%+; bullish memory supercycle for MU, Samsung, Hynix, SNDK.

Holy crap. This just happened:

"Samsung increases NAND prices by 100%" - ETNews

Estimates were 33-38% Q/Q growth - Trendforce

This is an absolute shock.

It's called the "Memory Supercycle" for a reason with $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix + $SNDK.

In simpler terms:

That extra 65% increase (from 35% to 100%) is pure, added high-margin profit.

If $MU guided for 68.0% gross margins Q2 2026, and we see a 100% NAND hike from 33-38% est, that could bring gross margin projections over 73-75%+.

This is a blowout.

$MU looks like the next Nvidia.

When Nvidia was $400B (now $4.5T+), markets thought GPUs were a short-term cycle.

Same with memory today.

AI has broken that cycle.

With the same "Made in America" and White House backing like $INTC:

Don't overthink things with Micron. https://t.co/LBhbVjoKGz


It's called the 'Memory Supercycle' for a reason with $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix + $SNDK.

Samsung Electronics listed on KOSPI as 005930.KS


Summary: Author is long VPG to front-run the robotics ramp.

@alecolace That's fair if you're bearish on $VPG! Drone sector has a lot more catalysts than robotics for sure, but thought I'd personally frontrun the robotics ramp with $VPG.

Again these are just my own personal opinions, I don't expect a lot of people to agree.

@aleabitoreddit I am currently:
🐂ish on $DPRO
🧸ish on $VPG

my 2 cents...always grateful for your content


Summary: Long TSEM as a compounder in photonics for AI, with NVDA GTC as a near-term catalyst.

$TSEM does not concern itself with the rest of the market.

Tower semi is one of my favorite photonic names, as a safer $TSM like compounder.

For the new paradigm of AI.

Up 5.8% today. https://t.co/UcH1K6C4UI

I'm long $TSEM, the $TSM of photonics.

My top two picks for CPO are $SOI and Tower Semi.

Given the $NVDA GTC catalyst on new photonic related architecture next week:

I expect Tower Semi to get a huge catalyst.

Nvidia laready directly collaborated with Tower to scale 1.6T https://t.co/Au3HYKNm7V


it looks increasingly likely they'll default at some point... there's a lot better longs out there than taking a risk on OpenAI... I don't think it can be sustained over the years

Summary: Bearish ORCL long-term: massive capex funded by debt on sole/risky OpenAI counterparty, OpenAI contagion risk, and loss of revenue share to Gemini make it unsustainable.

I've been saying this about $ORCL in the 300's though too when they projected $25B capex to $50B+ in just 1 year time.

This is to fulfill $500B+ in backlog. But that backlog doesn't matter when it's OpenAI (eg. $300B Stargate).

They're borrowing so much to build out on a sole customer, which happens to be the most obvious + extreme counterparty risk given OpenAI's other contractual obligations.

When you compound that with losing revenue share to Gemini, it looks increasingly likely they'll default at some point. I have high doubts Sam will find a way to sustain $1T+ in contractual obligations, even with an IPO (they just signed another $10B+ one with Cerebras the other day) + are just spreading contagion so they try and get backstopped by US government if they run out of funds.

This type of debt buildout on a questionable counterparty overshadows their other business verticals, and my opnion is that there's a lot better longs out there than taking a risk on OpenAI.

Just my opnion though, we might see a short term oracle recovery bc of openai's recent funding from softbank and others but I don't think it can be sustained over the years.

@aleabitoreddit Well, this is certainly a post to be bookmarked.
Thanks for a very solid breakdown.

As for the ORCL - fair concern on the capex, but ORCL has strong underlying fundamentals: database business still generates massive cash flow, cloud infrastructure revenue growing steadily, and


Summary: Bullish AAOI: execution risks priced in, hyperscaler demand + NVDA ecosystem tailwind, 10x upside if they execute.

The base case I’ve seen from $AAOI short sellers was that the $250m ATM doesn’t cover the capacity ramp and they needed $50m-$278m more (which is pennies given scale)

The main argument is always around execution and potential headwinds:

- whether they can reshore Taiwan assembly to US
- scale up laser capacity so they don’t need to use $COHR here and there
- executing on manufacturing expansion.
- whether there’s margin compression from Chinese players
- cpo arrival ( $GOOGL + $AVGO confirmed its way out)

I don’t see it being a customer concentration problem since every hyperscaler from $AMZN, $MSFT, $META are trying to buy up any supply they can make.

But I see the risk being priced into MC already and hyperscaler demand + $NVDA funding the ecosystem is probably the biggest tailwind + signal.

It sorta does gives me $RKLB neutron vibes if they can execute. And if they can flawlessly I see it being a 10x. And if they don’t, that’s the risk I’m taking for the upside.

@aleabitoreddit Would love to ape into this one, but honestly I don’t understand the space well enough yet and I’m already mega excited about $NBIS. Still, a few thoughts:

Management execution doesn’t seem as bad as many people here claim. It looks more like heavy customer concentration and a https://t.co/anfrTh1Hn5


Summary: Dismisses EWY pullback fears; long Korean equities on SK Hynix and Samsung re-rating with long way to go on repricing.

Not really, Gemini is just very confidently wrong. I tried asking it similar questions just now and they were super off.

Basically reason it's a straight line up is because analyst projections (which LLMs haven't trained on), projects that Sk Hynix makes more net income than $AAPL next year.

SK Hynix is still a ~$430B company compared to $3.7T. Then Samsung net income is just astronomical.

There's likely a long way to go for repricing.

Fundamentals > TA.

@aleabitoreddit aren't you worried of $EWY pullback? from TA side it looks overextended similar to $SLV before end of January 30% correction..i asked gemini and the bot is quite bearish lol


Sk Hynix makes more net income than $AAPL next year


Summary: States AEHR is one of their favorite longs.

@mi20483980476 @moderndayvenom $AEHR is one of my favorite longs. Unfortunately the question asked me to pick 5 only

@aleabitoreddit @moderndayvenom What about AEHR? Don’t you think that’s the next bottleneck


I'd rather hold 50% in Bitcoin around $70K than sit on cash to lower volatility

Summary: Long BTC as 50% position vs cash; bearish VPG on TSLA vertical integration risk.

@Bonek2801 Risk management purposes. I’d rather hold 50% in Bitcoin around $70K than sit on cash to lower volatility.

Also the downside risk of $VPG is $TSLA creating their own sensors and vertically integrating it away. Similar bear case with $GOOGL and OCS with $LITE though.

@aleabitoreddit Why did you invest 50% port in btc instead $VPG?


the downside risk of $VPG is $TSLA creating their own sensors and vertically integrating it away


Summary: Long LPTH: US defense supply chains shift from China germanium to Lightpath Black Diamond; 4-year window before Korea Zinc competes, vendors lock in for production.

$LPTH is incredible.

My thesis is most US companies will move off China germanium supply chains (especially for defense) and use Lightpath black diamond in the next 2 years (most of the catalysts).

They have a 4 year window until Korea Zinc starts ramping up in 2030.

But by that time I'd assume many vendors like Lockheed Stingers to Andruil Ghost are locked into Lightpath's material for production.

@aleabitoreddit Added $LTPH this week such a great company


this is one of the worst companies in the entire market... endless cycle of news fomo -> ATM/massive dilution that only harms retail... $BKKT so far is of the biggest retail capital destruction companies I've seen

Summary: Bearish BKKT: serial ATM dilution, toxic financing structure, and value transfer from retail to executives make it uninvestable.

$BKKT is down -23.87% premarket after a new $300M ATM dilution.

In my opinion, this is one of the worst companies in the entire market.

I feel sorry for people who followed a  certain influencer at $45 since retail portfolios are now wiped over 64%.

There’s an endless cycle of news fomo -> ATM/massive dilution that only harms retail.

This is the history $BKKT endlessly tries to hide:

Feb 2024: Issued ~1.4M shares + warrants in a registered direct offering.

Jul 2025: Issued another ~6.75M shares + pre-funded warrants in a $75M public offering, when the stock was trading around $24, but sold them to institutions at ~$10 (60%+ discount).

September: Mike Alfred joins -> he starts posting about the stock every day. Management after rally tries to issue 24% dilution awards to executives to sell

Today: $300 Million ATM dumped in the public market on retail, when MC is only $500m

$BKKT so far is of the biggest retail capital destruction companies I’ve seen.

Stocks are a positive sum game where everyone benefits, but this just looks like a value transfer from retail pockets to executives.

After influencer promotion -> ATM or executive grant dilution

I have zero positions but as a spectator:

This is the perfect example of why you should do your own research into companies that have completely toxic financing structures

Warning to retail investors:

Stay away from $UAVS until the result of the vote on the 22nd.

I was researching drone stock recs, and found SEC filings where the shady board voted for a wealth transfer from retail to arbitrage.

It's a drone company that's been getting retail https://t.co/P2gZHshw4q


It's the South Korea index not some random meme stock

Summary: Not too late to enter Korea index and SK Hynix; fundamentals support further upside despite recent run.

@AntoineLavenant It’s the South Korea index not some random meme stock.

SK Hynix was a $400B company last week and projected to make more than $AAPL next year. So I think there’s some ways to go.

More important to look at fundamentals over the chart

@aleabitoreddit Would you say it's too late to enter those? I'm always anxious of chasing a stock that has run so much already.


SK Hynix was a $400B company last week and projected to make more than $AAPL next year. So I think there's some ways to go


$POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself? It's feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B) packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B.

Summary: Long SIVE as an undervalued InP laser play for CPO/silicon photonics comparable to LITE's prior run; POET seen as overvalued vs its laser supplier SIVE.

I’m long $SIVE at $140M.

I believe this is the next $LITE that markets and institutions missed.

$SIVE makes InP CW DFB lasers.

Closest comparison is $LITE in the current EML laser bottleneck.

But instead of supplying to Innolight/Eoptolink for current optical transceivers cycles.

They supply the lasers to $POET Starlight, Ayar SuperNova.

And others for the future CPO/silicon photonics architectures spearheaded by $NVDA.

Current valuations make 0 sense to me personally.

$POET is advanced packaging for $SIVE type lasers…

But $POET commands worth 11x+ more than the company making the laser itself?

It’s feels like valuing a more advanced $FN (~$20B)  packaging at $400B when $LITE is valued at $40B.

So now at $130m:

-

- You have a likely mini $LITE like laser supplier to Marvell Celestial + hyperscalers through $POET.

- Laser supplier to Ayar ( $NVDA, $INTC ), though they do multi source with $LITE, Sumitomo, $MTSI.

And other potential up and coming suppliers potentially like Lightmatter that they’ve name dropped (eg. Q2 2023 earnings). This is unconfirmed but supply chain BOM is confidential.

On top, for revenue, they expected $453M "pipeline next few years”.

And, they have capacity expansion through WIN: “Win Semi foundry qualification in progress for volume production from Laser designs from Sivers."

Sivers feels the silicon photonics/CPO version of $LITE, with actual rapidly growing customers like Celestial through $POET, Ayar, with more to come.

I wouldn’t have liked it last year, but just 3 weeks ago, they refinanced all their debt successfully to $12M convertible loan (10.85%) and a $5M term loan (12%), which cleans up debt.

It’s $17m total, which feels like nothing to US markets when $AAOI is doing a $500m ATMs every other week.

Best of all, this is their pure play inp laser segment for silicon/photonics + cpo.

Their Lidar segment is ramping up and they have $53-138M projected revenue coming in.

Downside risk:

- execution (as always)

- dilution to scale up capacity to compete with $LITE and others.
- $LITE, $COHR competition on scale after $NVDA just gave them $4B
- CPO ramp gets delayed.

I have no clue how, $LWLG, a pre-revenue science project with $TSEM, is valued at $1B+ MC.

Or how $POET, is worth ~9-10x more than its laser supplier.

When $SIVE, the mini $LITE equivalent for CPO/Silicon photonics, is valued at $140M.

I do believe this is largely undiscovered by institutions, since this is some random company in OMX Nordic Exchange (similar to micro $AXTI before I started posting about the inp substrate bottleneck).

But I do think it will get a lot of institutional attention as Celestial and Ayar scale up.

Especially if $POET and $SIVE gets qualified with other customers.

If CPO completely replaces pluggable transceivers in the next generation of hyperscaler architectures.

Sivers, with possible WIN Semi qualifcation and if they become the multi-source lasers for NVIDIA, Marvell, Intel, and Broadcom architectures, can be strongly rerated.

Just as how $LITE did today going from $16 -> $622.

This is just my personal thesis I'm sharing, DYOR/NFI.

 TLDR:

InP Lasers are the current bottleneck in photonics as seen with $LITE valuations.

$SIVE looks like the mini $LITE for the upcoming CPO/Silicon Photonics ramp.

I personally took long position in $SIVE, as I believe they’re a large beneficiary of the upcoming silicon photonic/CPO architectural changes by $NVDA (with GTC cataylst).

The upside here just way too compelling for me personally as the next possible $LITE.


Summary: Long XLU via OTM 2-year LEAPS; thesis: once-in-a-lifetime rerating on utilities from rate cuts + AI inference + grid modernization.

Don’t think people realize how big this move on one of the

Slowest. Moving. Sectors.

In the world is.

2.56% in a week on $XLU.

Especially if IV is 14%.

All time return since year 2000 is 79.73% for the boring power/grid sector (not including dividends).

Option values are easily up double digits or triple digits.

That being said if IV is elevated (eg. above 17.5%) probably stay away.

My thesis was this was the once in a lifetime rerating on the most boring sector in the world due to rate cuts, AI inference usage, and grid/power modernization.

Hopefully this is the start my thesis playing out.

If I had to turn $100k -> $1M in 1 year.

It would be: $XLU OTM 2 year leaps

2026 is the first time in modern history markets have:

-  falling interest rates
- AI inference + buildout

There's a potential ~40%  for XLU (1000%+ OTM), from mapping.

Here's my macro thesis: https://t.co/R3Lcbwam38


Summary: Bullish META; ~33.5% y/y growth guidance at $1.5T+ scale suggests capex spending is paying off.

@mktoperative They guided ~33.5% y/y growth ($53.5B- $56.5B) as a $1.5T+ company.

Think whatever Zuck is spending on with $META seems to be working.

@aleabitoreddit Or its mkt putting them in penalty box for reckless spending with no ROI insight


Summary: High-conviction long SIVE post-restructuring as Jabil light source; also bullish JBL and POET in photonics supercycle.

Yes in my original post, I published financials. The restructuring February, made $SIVE much more highly compelling.

So, I see $SIVE being more low risk, high reward. Not high-risk anymore.

And it's now my high conviction small cap after they were announced as the light source for Jabil.

You have $JBL bridging the MASSIVE gap for 1.6 pluggable optical transceivers, rather than waiting for CPO.

Then $POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN, $MSFT.

Then Ayar -> AiChip/others -> $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, and others.

Then onet -> Asian supply chains for CPO.

Also I don't think any revenue forecasts should be accurate given TAM expansion/ramp for photonics supercycles.

@aleabitoreddit Gm, was a great call from you and looks like high risk, high reward. Did you already published dd about the finnlancials from this company (debt,revenue or forecasts)?


$POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> $AMZN, $MSFT


Yamamura glass (TYO: 5210) is a banger. You're basically buying the business for free? And their photonics division is growing 91% Y/Y for optical communication caps.

Summary: Long Yamamura Glass: buying below book value with a fast-growing AI DC photonics division and 5.5% dividend signaling structural value unlock.

Took a closer look: Yamamura glass (TYO: 5210) is a banger.

You’re basically buying the business for free?

And their photonics division is growing 91% Y/Y for optical communication caps.

You are paying $240M for a company that does $500M sales with $360M+ in actual book value (factories, equipment, cash) and a fast growing AI DC photonics division.

Before this was a trap but

-> they upped dividend amount to 5.5%, which is the biggest signal that value is now unlocked. And now from their Feb 12th earnings, they confirmed this was structural (not just one off that markets were fearing)

It’s just wait and chill basically?


Summary: Bullish VPG as Optimus ramp supplier; napkin math shows $850M–$8.5B revenue potential vs $589M market cap.

Elon Musk from $TSLA earnings: "We are replacing the Model S and Model X production line in Fremont with a line capable of producing up to 1 million Optimus units per year"

Just some napkin math on $VPG (a $589M company):

1M * $850 midpoint ($500-$1.2k per robot quoted by CEO from ER) = $850m revenue/year near term.

If you scale that to Elon's 10m target, $8.5B revenue/year...

Off 50% to 55% gross margins.

Pretty interesting figures for such a small company.

FYI: Markets often miss statements in earnings calls like $TSLA and their second order effects (price them in much later)

This is probably one of the biggest news for robotic supply chains of Optimus like $VPG.

Especially that Optimus will ramping up now and that Elon has


Summary: Initiated long SIMO as asymmetric NAND backdoor play: record revenue guide, TAM expansion into NVDA enterprise boot drives, debt-free with ~50% GMs at <20x forward earnings.

$SIMO for NAND exposure is another trade idea that I took positions in today.

SIMO operates effectively as a duopoly (alongside Phison) for merchant controllers and supplies basically:

- Samsung
- SK Hynix
- $MU
- $WDC
- Kioxia
- YMTC, and others.

- Revenue: Q4 2025 reached $278.5 million (+46% yoy and +15% qoq).
- Gross Margins: ~49.2%
- Net Income: ~$47.7 million (up 107% YoY).
- Net Cash: $277.1 million, no debt.

But, management announced 2026 will be the highest revenue year in the company’s history.

They guided Q1 2026 revenue to between $292m-$306m, which is +76%-84% YoY growth rate for the quarter.

They also started shipments to a "Leading AI GPU maker" likely $NVDA for enterprise boot drives, which is TAM expansion.

Memory makers basically outsourcing parts of the SSD controller spaces (eg. mobile/consumer) as they shift to HBM so now quite a bit is sourced exclusively from Silicon Motion.

So you have a profitable, debt-free company with ~50% gross margins profiting off of NAND volume demand, while expanding its TAM into high-margin Nvidia and AI enterprise storage pipelines.

While it doesn't exactly profit from all the NAND hikes (but can do price hikes of its own), it feels like a pretty asymmetrical tailwind/backdoor plays for memory.

At a $4.56B MC and under 20x forward earnings (assuming, $1.2B rev/$6.5 EPS), it's a little later to the game. But upside seems compelling given TAM expansion and the memory supercycle.


They also started shipments to a "Leading AI GPU maker" likely $NVDA for enterprise boot drives, which is TAM expansion


Summary: Long Soitec 2-3x over ~1 year as CPO substrate monopoly; demand inflection expected 2027–2028.

I feel like Soitec ( $SLOIF ) is a free 2-3x if people have the patience to wait a year?

They're a genuine monopoly over CPO for substrates.

Lot of folks looking at Shin-Etsu but they're just licensing Soitec's stuff.

It's not a current materials bottleneck like $AXTI, but a demand one (they have none right now since CPO hasn't scaled up).

But we all know it's coming later in 2027 -> 2028.

Main thing is opportunity cost, but just a matter of when markets want to frontrun it. Still better than your index returns imo?


Summary: Author sees SIVE as next 10x, AAOI another 4x; VNP, SOI, IQE, TSEM, LITE, COHR as varying-conviction longs in photonics/compound semiconductors.

So my 10x moonshot $AXTI ended up landing on the moon.

If you felt like you missed the rocket:

-> $SIVE is my personal favorite next 10x AXT moonshot at today's prices.
-> $AAOI already up 4x since I've mentioned it, but I still think it can 4x again from these levels.

If you want to play a bit safer:
-> $VNP is the Western $AXTI
-> $SOI is the $AXTI for silicon photonics/CPO, but it hasn't really ramped up yet.
-> $IQE is more binary based on restructuring.
-> $TSEM, $LITE, $COHR are the steadier compounders.

I haven’t mentioned $VNP (5N Plus) much yet but it’s genuinely one of the most important companies in Western supply chains as the counterbalance to $AXTI.

Basically it supplies: indium, germanium, gallium, tellurium, bismuth. Solar cells for LEO. Substrate feedstock for photonics.

There's always more opportunities in the market!

$AXTI has now reached the legendary status of $69.69.

Was expecting close to 10x returns in a year and half, not a few months…

Everything from $AAOI to $SIVE are ridiculously outperforming.

As for AXT valuations at $4B? Is it overvalued. Yes.

Would hyperscalers pay $10B to https://t.co/FGeiljgkSo


5N Plus trades on TSX main board as VNP.TO


$IQE is more binary based on restructuring


$TSEM, $LITE, $COHR are the steadier compounders


Summary: Space stocks RKLB and ASTS expected to go parabolic around SpaceX IPO day (~3 months out), with RKLB particularly undervalued vs SpaceX.

SpaceX to be valued at $1.75T ahead of June IPO (3M from now).

Having a weird feeling all your space stocks from $RKLB to $ASTS are going to be parabolic around the time of IPO day.

Especially when everyone see SpaceX's next biggest competitor in Rocketlab valued at 2.3% of SpaceX's valuation.


Summary: Ongoing bear on IONQ/RGTI/QBTS; initiated long INFQ as preferred pure-play quantum exposure with sensing applications.

If you've read my previous posts, I've been bear posting $IONQ, $RGTI, $QBTS since the dawn of time.

However, just from industry discussions, everyone I've talked to seems to know it's coming. It's feels like a matter of time, whether it's 2 years or 5.

I've been watching $GOOGL Willow and other breakthroughs, but there hasn't been any pure play exposure I thought it was worth to take the risk on. But  decided to pull the trigger with $INFQ.

As for "applications" it's largely national security and doesn't feel very commercial. Eg. breaking encryption, so Governments have a huge incentive to fund research into this area. But you can see other applications with $INFQ + quantum sensing.

@aleabitoreddit There is no quantum computing market. None of it has real application, not now, not in 20 years, besides breaking old at-rest encrypted data (which is not going to be a big industry fwiw)


Summary: Bearish ORCL on excessive capex, OpenAI counterparty risk, and GPU profitability issues; CRWV flagged as similarly debt-burdened with FCF headwinds.

I've been covering Neoclouds for awhile so I'm familiar with $ORCL. It's nuanced:

Main thing is CapEx -> $50B from $35B, and $200B+ or so in DC leases.

This is mainly for the Stargate project, mainly for OpenAI, which presents incredible counter party risk.

As you know OpenAI has $1T+ in contracted capex spend, but not enough money to pay for it. So that $300B+ in contracted revenue you see in earnings for ROI spend, could easily just disappear.

You might think it's easy to just get another customer but any utilization lag, combined with asset/lease depreciation, hurts. A lot.

Second part is

-> It's incredibly hard to turn this into a high margin business.

You have to combine GPU depreciation, GPU orchestration (which is really difficult Nebius, Coreweave are the few currently that can do this well), amid other things to turn that revenue into FCF.

And when you take on a lot of debt as seen with $CRWV, and $ORCL that cuts into any FCF + you still need to pay it off.

The Information leaked news a month or two ago that Oracle was facing a lot of issues with profitability on their GPU segment (GPU utilization issues, etc). So that took a toll.

Overall, main uncertainty is counterparty risk with OpenAI. It's core business is strong, but new buildout is shaky.

So I would argue it's excessive Capex for a shaky counterparty and questions on whether that turns into FCF or more losses.

I’m not sure why Oracle’s stock is trading sideways. Is it because its core business is software, so it’s included in the short SaaS basket? Or is it because no LLM trained on Blackwell has been released yet?

It doesn’t seem like a sufficient explanation to simply say the stock


when you take on a lot of debt as seen with $CRWV, and $ORCL that cuts into any FCF + you still need to pay it off


They're going to get their positions nuked on $SNDK? Zero clue, just adds fuel to the fire for the rally

Summary: Dismisses Citron's short; expects SNDK rally to continue as short squeeze adds fuel.

@ZeroKnowledger_ They’re going to get their positions nuked on $SNDK? Zero clue, just adds fuel to the fire for the rally

@aleabitoreddit Whats your opinion on CITRON short $SNDK?


Summary: Long oil, rare earths, and semiconductors as geopolitical supply-chain weaponization drives massive funding into all three sectors; AXTI flagged as a specific photonics/AI bottleneck play.

The World is fighting over:

Oil, Rare Earths, and Semiconductors.

The reason being... Every supply chain is being weaponized right now.

And it so happens, US biggest geopolitical enemies own most of the chokepoints.

I was one of the first to connect $AXTI's bottleneck to photonics + AI hyperscaler supply chains.

But there are many more that I'm scared to broadcast, just due to national security vulnerabilities.

But the thematic investments hold true:

Massive amounts of funding will be poured into these three sectors to either go to war over them, secure them domestically, or engineer around them for 2026.

As a theme, if your portfolio is not overweight into those three right sectors the entire world is fighting over...

Maybe you're might be something wrong?


Massive amounts of funding will be poured into these three sectors


Summary: Still long AAOI with high conviction.

@usbastats $AAOI is up over 3x since I went long… I just forgot about it since there were too many names

But yes high conviction with $AAOI

@aleabitoreddit Are you as confident about $AAOI as you are with $AXTI or $SIVE?


Wouldn't be surprised to see Meta at $800+ in the upcoming weeks. ... When you have half of the world using a company daily, maybe it's time to rethink your position and go long.

Summary: Long META to $800+ on 33.5% y/y revenue growth, capex fears overblown, and FCF expansion.

Not sure why FinX is so bearish on $META.

They’re guiding $53.5B – $56.5B.High end is ~33.5% y/y growth.

This is insane.

People were citing 2026 Capex Guide: $115B – $135B as a bear case

Where est. ~$110B

$META is growing like a startup again even at a $1T valuation.

It’s clear wherever capex spend is going, it’s delivered in revenue and future FCF ROI, not going into a black hole.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see Meta at $800+ in the upcoming weeks.

This was pure optics last time around with BBB earnings (even though they grew 26% Y/Y and delivered $10B+ FCF).

And that same $META narrative is still being parroted today.

When you have half of the world using a company daily, maybe it’s time to rethink your position and go long.

Btw this $META call at $625 was only 2 weeks ago. 🎯

Hope it goes up even more over the next few weeks, capex spend was overblown since they’re printing money and growing at astounding rates. https://t.co/ElqIsW49al


Summary: Bullish on photonics transceiver space including LITE and COHR; demand outstrips supply and photonics is a known bottleneck.

Three to four hyperscaler orders for all the capacity they can make a year out doesn’t mean risk of cancellation? Not sure where you’re getting that from.

What 20% margin ceiling? They cited 40%.

Also they’re Made in America supply chains which is rare, $LITE and $COHR do assembly in Asia.

But makes sense of people have ptsd from $AMZN order cancellation many years ago. But this time should be different since photonics is a known bottleneck and demand outstrips supply

@aleabitoreddit Great call so far but how do you get comfortable with execution of the team. They have been very early or wrong before.

They are by definition late to the transceiver game a bit, lagging LITE by years.

Suggests they are marginal supply and there’s risk of customers


I expect IV to increase further after this week's events (alongside underlying stock to go up)

Summary: Still holding EWY 2028 calls; expects underlying to go up alongside further IV expansion.

@exitvalley Yeah! I think the underlying actually dropped more after I bought some strikes but calls are close to double anyway off volatility expansion alone.

And I expect IV to increase further after this week’s events (alongside underlying stock to go up) https://t.co/TwCJrLo0Z3

@aleabitoreddit Goated indeed! Are you still holding the EWY 2028 calls?


Summary: Long SOI, AAOI, AXTI long-term as photonics becomes the dominant AI architectural paradigm.

@Jacktecau990 There's always going to be better buying short term opportunities like with $SOI, $AAOI, or $AXTI.

But long term I expect them all to go up as photonics becomes the new architectural paradigm for AI.


Summary: Long AAOI: 900%+ revenue growth forecast, completely sold out on 800G/1.6T transceivers, hyperscale demand, and pricing power suggest significant upside from $5.5B MC.

$AAOI looks like an early $SNDK. And is likely going much higher than a $5.5B MC over the next year.

On their earnings call:

- 3 hyperscale customers (probably $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT)

- "they would like to buy all the transceiver we can make for 800G and 1.6". - completely sold out, like memory.

- 900%+ revenue growth forecast to $4.3B off $5.5B MC.

There is unprecedented demand for photonics, and $AAOI just confirmed it.

And they can always begin price hikes to increase gross margins from 40%. Of course there are execution risks...

But this is one example where you look at fundamentals over chart.

After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B-$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections.

And they're one of the only "Made in America"  (Sugarland, Texas) companies out of

- $LITE (global)
- $COHR (global)
- $FN (Thai)
- $AVGO (global)
- Innolight (China), https://t.co/xhqPPmyz9B


short-medium term IREN's upside is capped due to the $6B ATM

Summary: IREN capped near-term by $6B ATM dilution; NBIS preferred for equity appreciation on superior capex structure.

It’s not that $IREN will crash.

It’s moreso short-medium term IREN’s upside is capped due to the $6B ATM.

If you’re investing in IREN it’s better to wait after existing holders get diluted to oblivion from up to $6B in selling pressure, then go long after.

If you’re chasing equity appreciation, $NBIS has a much superior capex financing structure.

@aleabitoreddit Sorry about these people very mad at you. Could I please ask you to clarify though? Do you think IREN will fail? Or just underperformed competition yet still go up in value?

Trying to decide to hold for breakeven @ 55 run away now


$NBIS has a much superior capex financing structure


the setup looks prime for a short squeeze. Due to revenue reaccelerating, new acquisitions for global expansion, no threats of balance sheet insolvency, and now a partnership with $NVO

Summary: Bullish HIMS into Monday: NVO partnership flips short-squeeze setup with 40%+ float short, revenue reaccelerating, and insolvency risk removed.

$HIMS overnight trading will begin soon after finishing Friday at $22.

Previously it traded at $70, but given:

- $NVO / US Gov lawsuit threatening to bankrupt the company

- $HIMS revenue deceleration from GLP-1.

Short sellers shorted 40%+ of the company’s float.

All of that flipped Friday after hours once $NVO partnered up with $HIMS per Bloomberg, in an extremely surprising event.

Due to revenue reaccelerating, new acquisitions for global expansion, no threats of balance sheet insolvency, and now a partnership with $NVO:

Short sellers now face infinite losses, selling close to half of the float short.

And the setup looks prime for a short squeeze.

However, the outcome primarily depends on how retail reacts or if they capitulate to short sellers.

Either way, everyone will be watching Monday to see whether $HIMS cactus pills serves as a macroeconomic flight to safety against crude oil.

Monday could make history.

As one of the largest short squeezes in history could unfold.

> Institutions shorted 40% of $HIMS (extraordinarily large)

> expecting 0 revenue growth

> betting the FDA and $NVO would bankrupt the company

All in one day:

> $HIMS lawsuit with Novo https://t.co/5FTEJtvpT8


If your answer to that is "likely, might be good to get exposure to Korean, Japanese, or Taiwanese equities

Summary: If memory shortage proves durable (AI-cycle 'oil'), get exposure to Samsung and SK Hynix ahead of projected 2027 profit supremacy.

These numbers are staggering:

Samsung and SK Hynix are projected to become the most profitable companies in the world by 2027.

Their projections exceed $APPL and $GOOGL, both ~$4T companies in operating profit.

For reference, Samsung is valued at ~$820B and SK Hynix is valued at ~$410B.

That would make a ~$410B company in SK Hynix more profitable than $GOOGL ($3.7T) in 2027.

By Morgan Stanley estimates earlier, SK Hynix and Samsung are est. to bring in:

~$387.7 Billion USD combined operating income.

America’s two most profitable companies $APPL and $GOOGL combined brought in $263 Billion USD for 2025. (Google $129-132B, Apple $133.1B)

2027 est.
Samsung Electronics: ~$226.7 Billion
Sk Hynix: ~$161.0 Billion

2027 est:
Apple: ~$156B-$165B
Google: ~$168B-178B

The statistics of smaller Korean equities exceeding multi trillion dollar US hyperscalers in profitability is staggering.

It’s a genuinely interesting point, that a $410B company exceeds $4T+ hyperscalers in profitability.

But the bigger question markets are pricing in is if the memory shortage is ephemeral, or if they become a necessary “Oil” like GPUs for the AI buildout.

If your answer to that is “likely, might be good to get exposure to Korean, Japanese, or Taiwanese equities.


Summary: Expects HIMS, DUOL, BMNR to drop 50-70%+ in Q1 2026 as markets turn sour; CRWV and ASST also implicitly bearish as retail darlings in a turning market.

This data is alarming... Robinhood users lost a collective:

- $24.6 Billion USD in Q4 2025.

With Robinhood portfolios on X consisting of :

$HIMS, $DUOL, and $BMNR.

Q1 2026 is likely to be even worse, as these names drop 50-70%+.

Everyone thinks they're Warren Buffet, making profit from Duolingo, $CRWV, and $ASST in an extreme bull market.

But as markets turn sour:

We'll start to see the real traders and investors, who are able to profit in any market condition.


Everyone thinks they're Warren Buffet, making profit from Duolingo, $CRWV, and $ASST in an extreme bull market


Summary: Strong long MU on US national-security moat, policy backstop, and 11x forward P/E; INTC also backed by same policy floor.

It's extremely easy to overthink things with qualification risk or Sk Hynix ramp + competition.

$MU has the biggest moat in the world:

US national security + Made in America supply chains.

The White House + US hyperscalers won't let $INTC or $MU fail. And it's trading at 11 forward p/e.

This is the easiest long on US policy.

@aleabitoreddit Very true.
Waiting for a pullback, which may never come.
It's just very hard to buy with the price climibng from 240 so fast.


The White House + US hyperscalers won't let $INTC or $MU fail


Summary: Long TSEM targeting $35B market cap, ~2.5x upside over ~18 months via re-rating.

@PhotonCap Oh yeah I like $TSEM. I think it could get rerated to $35B MC which is like 2.5x from here.

Feels like a matter of time, maybe another year and a half?

@aleabitoreddit so i believe you still like TSEM or waiting for a target range in terms of price??


Summary: Long LASR as a top way to gain exposure to directed-energy lasers.

@metapata If people ever want to see this in their lifetime, $LASR has one of the best exposure to energy directed lasers https://t.co/eNPepoBrk7

@aleabitoreddit own stock with cool tickers. Lasers!


Prob not... Feels more like a narrative headwind than anything material to earnings

Summary: TurboQuant is a narrative headwind not material to DRAM earnings; dismisses bear case for memory stocks; sees ARM as modest beneficiary via on-device AI.

Google's TurboQuant...

And it's effect on $SNDK, $MU, SK Hynix, and others:

What it does:
-> 6x reduction in KV cache memory footprint
-> 8x Speedup on H100 GPUs

It's a compression algorithm.

Now... Will it beat down memory?

-> Prob not.

Implications might be bullish for $ARM and others though where you can run AI locally, rather than DRAM heavy DCs.

However:

->This is basically DeepSeek round 3. You can make algorithms more efficient. But that doesn't replace either memory or GPUs.
-> It could structurally (and slightly) reduce DRAM demand.
-> think it's only been tested on small models so far like Gemma, Mistral, and Llama-3.1 (and paper's been out for a year)

Also, markets conflated DRAM with NAND... this algo compresses the KV cache (DRAM). Doesn't do anything to NAND storage?

Regardless:

Algorithms will always get more efficient. People keep saying Jevons Paradox, which is true since this just scales use cases.

Main thing to look out for is hyperscaper capex projections, not Google Algorithms that made things more efficient.

Feels more like a narrative headwind than anything material to earnings.


SanDisk (spun off from WD) trades as SNDK on NASDAQ


Implications might be bullish for $ARM and others though where you can run AI locally


Summary: Most bullish on RKLB long-term, though considers it overvalued short-term.

@AstronautCoin Long term, $RKLB is probably my most bullish stock.

Short term though it's pretty overvalued. So I just leave them out.

This is more like a short-med term list for me.


Summary: Sees KR equities as compelling long; SK Hynix at high $300B MC and Samsung boosting NAND prices in Q2 to beat operating income projections.

Lot of discussion around LNG/JKM fears still look overblown, even if it's not just helium. Majority of SK’s LNG imports would be largely unaffected if Hormuz were closed as they arrive via Hormuz-free routes like Australia, US, Malaysia, Indonesia.

Then 82% of 2024 imports for example were long term contracts, not spot, but likely oil indexed and I'd agree with you there on looking at oil impact.

However, even if costs shot up, opex would be passed onto hyperscalers through price hikes rather than see margins being compressed.

Which is why I see KR equities still be a compelling long around now, as Sk Hynix drops to high $300B+ MC and Samsung doubles nand prices again in q2 to boost operating income past projections

This is very reminiscent of the “WDC is a zero because of neon gas shortage from Ukraine” episode.

The impact of higher oil, or more importantly JKM prices, for Korean equities is a real discussion. This helium stuff is not though.


Samsung doubles nand prices again in q2 to boost operating income past projections


$IQE is my $IREN equivalent for photonics. They have the reactors and capacity. And they're not some unknown company as they're a known $LITE supplier. They just need to completely restructure away from legacy drag, restructure debt from Taiwan asset sales, and pivot to photonics for AI.

Summary: Long IQE as a photonics-for-AI play with existing reactor capacity and LITE supplier credibility, pending debt restructuring and legacy pivot.

$IQE is my $IREN equivalent for photonics.

They have the reactors and capacity. And they’re not some unknown company as they’re a known $LITE supplier.

They just need to completely restructure away from legacy drag, restructure debt from Taiwan asset sales, and pivot to photonics for AI.

@aleabitoreddit Landmark at 4B vs IQE at 250M is wild. Clearing debt via asset sales is the only way to catch up.


There's a raw, unadulterated upside when you look at $AAOI laser -> design -> assembly supply chain valued at $7.5B. And compare it to their Asian or Western counterparts all valued at $50B+

Summary: Bullish AAOI: vertically integrated photonics supply chain at $7.5B vs $50B+ comps implies massive re-rating potential.

$AAOI has exceptionally strong buying pressure.

All major photonics names are down today:

$LITE down -4.74%
$COHR down -8%
$AXTI down -2.5%
$IQE down -20%.
$FN down -3.98.

But $AAOI is the photonics name green.

There’s a raw, unadulterated upside when you look at $AAOI laser -> design -> assembly supply chain valued at $7.5B.

And compare it to their Asian or Western counterparts all valued at $50B+

$AAOI is extraordinarily exciting.

There is a chance this re-rates to $35B+ or higher next year from $7B if they can execute.

I'll give a TLDR of the landscape and a simple explanation why:

Assembly:

-> Lasers from $LITE / $COHR -> assembles from blueprints ->  then sell https://t.co/DFi5TiujG1


Summary: Long entire photonics AI supply chain: AXTI, SOI, AAOI, LITE, COHR, TSEM as the new AI paradigm.

@demarscrypto There's nothing wrong with buying the entire photonics supply chain if you see it being the new paradigm of AI.

Substrates: $AXTI, $SOI
Assembly/Laser/Transceivers/supply chain: $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR
Foundry: $TSEM

Were the names I've liked.

@aleabitoreddit Stop bro I don’t have enough money to buy all this shit


Summary: Long AAOI long-term once ATM offering finishes; views current price as undervalued relative to revenue potential.

@Jornka329996 It makes sense, since there is an ongoing ATM at $100.

I've been saying this is the ceiling for short term $AAOI since they're selling $250m worth of shares at that price.

But once that finishes, I personally it's very undervalued given long term revenue potential.

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit will we have a day where $AAOI hits 150$ usd. This stock is getting wrecked for no reasons


Summary: Long AEVA on 4D Physical AI/LiDAR + LG $50M deal for humanoids; long SIVE as likely CW laser supplier for FMCW LiDAR in the SIVE→AEVA→LG→Boston Dynamics chain.

If you don't remember:

$AEVA was my long for 4D Physical AI + World Models.

-> LG $50m in $AEVA to co-develop FMCW 4D LiDAR, explicitly citing Humanoids
-> LG (Boston Dynamics vision spuplier).

But...

Guess who makes those CW lasers for FM-CW Lidar?

The very same company for scaling photonics with 1.6T+ pluggables with $JBL to CPO in $MRVL Celestial.

Is the likely 4D AI CW laser supplier for humanoids and 4D physical AI.

One highly possible mapping:

-> $SIVE -> $AEVA -> $LG -> Boston Dynamics.

Both $SIVE and $AEVA were my two longs, but frontier sectors in 4D Physical AI to photonics tend to overlap.


Summary: AVAV is a great dip buy; market overreacting to $175M contract renegotiation vs $1B+ core Switchblade revenue.

@__visionxry__ IMO $AVAV is a great dip buy on the 15% drop.

Main revenue is $1B+ switchblade replicator.

Markets are trolling if they’re panicking over a $175m contract that’s getting renegotiated.

@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on the SCAR update with $avav? Concerning or dip buying opportunity you think?


Summary: Pair trade: short IREN, long NBIS.

@aleabitoreddit If you had to short something what would you short?


Summary: Pair trade: short IREN, long NBIS.


Summary: Strongest conviction on SIVE as highest-upside CW laser play for CPO scale-up and 1.6T pluggables; also bullish AVGO, MTSI, COHR, LITE, TSEM, JBL on laser/photonics bottleneck theme.

$SIVE has gotta be the highest upside stock I’ve seen in this market since $AXTI?

No way markets missed the CW laser light source for Jabil, Marvell (Celestial via $POET), O-Net, Ayar ( $NVDA, Mediatek backed)…

At a $140M valuation. ($350m now)

Not only do you get the most direct laser exposure to future CPO scale up?

But also this cycle’s 1.6T pluggables with $JBL (formerly Intel Silicon Photonics division) coming soon.

With Win Semi bridge capacity scaling needed for hyperscaler supply chains.

Don’t think 99.9% of people realized the sheer scale of this yet.

Every industry leader...

Especially $AVGO (Physical Layer Products division) in this statement today.

Cites Lasers as a bottleneck for semiconductors.

If you aren't long...
-> CW Lasers: $SIVE | $MTSI
-> EML Lasers: $COHR | $LITE
-> or their foundries in $TSEM/Win Semi https://t.co/U2jL4zwbtW


this cycle's 1.6T pluggables with $JBL (formerly Intel Silicon Photonics division) coming soon


I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially.

Summary: Long IQE: distressed valuation vs massive photonics capacity; debt clearance via Taiwan asset sale could trigger material equity rerate.

Here's a deeper look into $IQE ($179M):

IQE's hidden InP optionality versus LandMark's $3.5B valuation. And the $IREN / $CRWV "miner" pivot to photonics:

Before I did a high-level shower thought overview eg. $AXTI -> $IQE -> $LITE -> $GOOGL TPUs, but this is slightly more DD.

Basically: IQE is the largest independent merchant compound semi epitaxial foundry in the world by reactor count and physical capacity.

However, it's trading at distressed valuations because it's burdened by a low-margin legacy wireless business, and near-term liquidity constraints.

LandMark Optoelectronics (TPEX: 3081) is the closest comparison. As a pure-play proxy for AI InP demand in the 800G and 1.6T optical interconnect market, LandMark commands a ~$3.8B billion market cap with large premiums in comparison to $IQE which is trading at a $175M MC.

But if you look deeper at the physical hardware, the disconnect is pretty fascinating:

LandMark's operational scale is physically limited. They only operate around 27 to 30 Metal-Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) reactors out of a single campus in Taiwan per some estimates.

IQE, by stark contrast, possesses well over 100+ MOCVD and MBE systems globally.

The underlying replacement value and structural capacity of IQE’s photonics asset base looks to vastly exceeds its current public market valuation.

Kind of like if a Bitcoin miner has 3GW capacity, vs 750 MW, there's large optionality to monetize it if they convert it.

And we're seeing an transceiver bottleneck too:

-> The downstream demand for optical transceivers is experiencing unprecedented acceleration.

-> Extreme demand, from $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN and others flow directly up the hardware supply chain.

This puts immense pressure on transceiver integrators like Innolight, optical component manufacturers like $COHR, $LITE, and $AVGO, and ultimately, the merchant epitaxial foundries that grow the raw epiwafers required for the foundational laser chips.

And since other players are hitting a physical capacity ceiling, vertically integrated players like $COHR are capped out, hyperscalers and module makers are desperate for alternative capacity in players like $IQE

And..

Hidden entirely beneath IQE's consolidated corporate lines is a massive fleet of Aixtron AIX 2800G4-TM reactors.

These are natively dual-capable (GaAs/InP) and can be repurposed for InP production at a relatively modest cost ($500K-$1.5M per reactor) but take few months or year to refactor. And obviously qualification and yield risk added to execution (similar to Bitcoin miners doing software orchestration to GPUs like $CRWV).

But still,  IQE has the capacity kinda like $IREN or Bitcoin miners that pivoted to HPC. And LandMark is proof of the valuation pure play exposure brings.

The Major Question..  Unlocking Trapped Value:

While IQE generates significantly higher top-line revenue than LandMark, it's priced ($175M MC) for bankruptcy because of its gross debt of 45M.

But the debt looks like pennies to hyperscalers:

The explicit, stated goal of their ongoing Lazard-advised strategic review is to definitively conclude the sale of IQE Taiwan (their legacy GaAs wireless business) and utilize the proceeds to completely and permanently extinguish the parent company's restrictive debt profile.

Once again their convertible loan notes is a norminal face value of £21.2 million, for proceeds of £18 million for the company. Then they're net debt, £23.5 million.

-> The immediate debt burden requiring clearance: £23.5M HSBC facility + £21.2M CLN = ~£45M.

Assuming a highly sale price for the IQE Taiwan unit of between £100 million and £150 millio (not guaranteed), IQE would net £50 million to £100 million in surplus cash after becoming completely debt-free.

However, RF GaAs is not currently "hot", so in a distressed asset sale it might only be £50M to £60M, which gives it enough room to clear debt alone and little cushion room.

The Geopolitical Pivot:

Once debt-free, IQE can shift its massive, currently underutilized manufacturing capacity in places like North Carolina and Wales toward the InP epiwafer market for datacenters.

It creates a fully capitalized, purely Western-based supply chain for the most critical bottleneck in photonics, eliminating more dependency on Asia at a time when the US and UK are heavily prioritizing domestic semiconductor infrastructure.

Basically, just given the amount of raw assets $IQE has:

 -> Successfully selling off their Taiwan business wipes out the going-concern risks, clears all debt, and leaves them to monetize their 6-inch inp epiwafer tech directly for the Tier 1 optical transceiver players.

It's a deep asset value trade on a successful restructuring to unlock trapped value. And a currently well-known supplier for optical networking for hyperscalers (so not a science project).

Downside risks are excessive dilution and failure to restructure. But given it's geopolitical importance to Western supply chains and hyperscaler supply chains, it seems to have more cushion.

I personally decided to enter this long as a massive potential turnaround. But again, it's not for everyone and it's extremely high risk.

TLDR:

-> IQE is priced like a distressed RF supplier.
-> It owns real photonics-capable infrastructure.
-> If gross 41M debt is removed and management reallocates capex toward InP, the equity could rerate materially.
-> Restructuring + capacity optionality trade with extreme risk but extreme upside.

Closest comparison is Bitcoin miners like $IREN or $CIFR that pivot their GW capacity to AI HPC. They have a ton of physical hardware (GW capacity), and need funds to pivot (either through sale of Taiwan business or dilution).

It's an optimistic trade I took they can do it (with wiggle room like $INTC given their geopolitical importance to the West).

The downside is extreme dilution, which is always a possibility (meaning your equity gets wiped out to 0 to clear their debts or to help them refactor).

I just found that 45M gross debt (14.4% of float + debt) wasn't the most and management was looking to clear that through asset sales rather than dilution to shareholders.

Just wanted to publish deeper breakdown and more risks of this very binary **high risk**, but potentially high upside trade.


Summary: Memory names (SK Hynix, Samsung) and EWY seen as compelling longs post-war-volatility on intact fundamentals vs. overblown oil/LNG fears.

$EWY IV is starting to look seriously mispriced.

The volatility on the South Korean index and SK Hynix / Samsung is just insane.

That being said, three things regarding memory names:

1. Crude Oil costs and LNG as a byproduct are likely to have little to moderate material effect.

- Price hikes are a small haircut to SK Hynix/Samsung margins, but DRAM/NAND hikes makes up for all of that

- Found low disruption to Helium/LNG given shipping routes / SK Hynix statements.

2. Majority of the fears seem overblown and markets are pricing in the worst case fears of Oil to $200 + global recession.

3. Liquidations causing exaggerated effects.

The operating income of these stocks are likely in tact.

But short term repricing does make sense as markets are derisking of future oil spillovers.

However, I do believe memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear.

Also a good lesson not to use margin during volatile periods like these.

The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on

Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either:

Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown.

The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise.

Here's why:

1. Crude Oil: https://t.co/pbJoQoUWlE


memory names serve as compelling longs once the War volatility is over given fundamentals > fear


Summary: Stay long AI buildout beneficiaries — AVGO, memory (Hynix/Samsung/MU), TSM, NVDA as core plays; AAOI, POET, LITE as hidden beneficiaries; hyperscaler capex blowout validates the trade.

Markets have been hit with an AI capex shock.

This is effectively an AI arms race between hyperscalers and foreign nations.

Between 2025 to 2026, capex has increased from:

$GOOGL: $91B - $93B to $175B – $185B
$AMZN: $125B to ~$200B
$META: $72B to $115B-$135B
$MSFT: $110B to $150B
$TSLA: $8.5B to $20B+

When Google says they are spending $185 Billion in 1 year (on DCs, TPUs, infrastructure), from $92B the previous year, that is enormous.

Capex projections like $AMZN are mixed from robotics to space, but the same memory companies and semiconductors actually benefit twice.

Markets might not appreciate $GOOGL spending that much but AI supply chains upstream certainly do.

Especially the most obvious ones that benefit from most such as:

ASICs: $AVGO (Google TPUs, Meta MTIA, etc.)
Memory: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron
$TSM (You cannot build God without TSM)
$NVDA (training)

There's hidden beneficiaries in each buildout (eg. $AAOI with $MSFT to $POET with $MRVL, $LITE with $GOOGL). But sometimes, the braindead obvious plays like memory or $TSM are are just the best.

The biggest signal of whether the AI trade continues is hyperscaler spending:

And they just blew all expectations out of the room.

Stay long in the AI buildout, fundamentals matter more than macro and short term liquidity shock.


Summary: Bullish Soitec as a legitimate monopoly in SOI substrate; endorsed by Citrini.

Thanks. Soitec is a legitimate monopoly in SOI substrate space that Citrini also likes.

Unfortunately as my account gets bigger, the amount of spammers or people who stray away from stock discussion and go into personal attacks (like the guy below) also increases so I end up blocking.

Happy to hold a conversation with anyone as long as it’s in good faith

The amount of hate @aleabitoreddit is getting is wild.
From what I see, he’s smart, consistent, and actually does the work.
Let’s be real: people don’t hate on average.
They hate on winners.

Similar to what @daniel_koss is experiencing.

Keep up the great work guys😎


Summary: Bullish MRVL as a play on Microsoft Maia ASIC ramp, not photonics.

@kingcoinmatt $MRVL is too big. I would buy them for $MSFT Maia ASIC ramp not photonics like Celestial.

@aleabitoreddit How come you don’t mention marvel


Summary: Bearish SNAP: SBC masks negative real FCF, buybacks funded by expensive debt to offset stock grants, not excess capital.

$SNAP Just reported earnings and issued a $500M share buyback.

The buyback is a red flag.

Q4 Report:
- Revenue: $1.716 Billion (+10%)
- FCF: $206M (+13%)
- Net Income: $45M
- Gross Margins: 59%

$SNAP recognized $257.2 million in STOCK BASED COMPENSATION, ending the year with $1.017 billion in SBC.

If $SNAP paid employees/executives in cash instead of stock, If their "Free Cash Flow" for the quarter would actually be -$51M.

You see a $3B balance sheet, but they are net cash -$490 Million, because they are going into $3.5B+ in long term debt to do buybacks.

These are not $META or $NVDA buybacks because of excess capital from their balance sheet.

It's to offset any stock grants going to their executives and "Talent".

They are paying market rates of (6.875%) for their debt.

 That debt interest is now over $30M+ a quarter, so $120m+ a year just for "buybacks".

Earnings look great, but the stock compensation optical illusion makes the reality look horrendous.

I would personally not invest in a Victoria Secret model's private piggy bank.

$SNAP is close to all time lows at $6.7, despite growing revenues/profit.

Here's why:

The financial engineering looks criminal.

Snapchat is a $11.5B company that has ~1B MAU with Q3 adjusted EBITDA ~$132M.

However:

- $SNAP stock comp for the last 12M?

$2.5 Billion. Yes https://t.co/7gLKLGBDks


I think there's a lot of room for rerating a $2B company when the future of AI is scaled with photonics

Summary: Long AXTI: duopoly control of photonics feedstock/substrates warrants major re-rating as AI scales with photonics.

Depends how big you think photonics is and how much value you think hyperscalers would place to secure their supply chain.

If you look at $SNDK and NAND, we’ve already seen what it’s like.

The more downstream you go like lasers or finished transceivers typically have higher revenue/margins.

But if you’re a duopoly and hold a major chokepoint around both feedstock and substrates, I think there’s a lot of room for rerating a $2B company when the future of AI is scaled with photonics.

@aleabitoreddit My biggest question is still do we see a lot of room for axti to run?


Summary: Bullish LITE to $1000+ next year and COHR on NVDA funding, S&P inflows, Google TPU BOM exposure, and reasonable forward P/E given growth.

They're really well priced right now, and I expect companies like $LITE to probably end up $1000+ next year.

Each of them just got $2B each in new funding from $NVDA at way higher share values and now have billions in S&P index passive inflows.

So this is structurally a large tailwind for the photonics sector, minus AH MM pinning/shenanigans today.

If you look at Google TPU BOM $LITE is ~8-12% of it and Google's expanding capex enormously this year alone (eg. ~$180B).

Pretty sure both of them have 2028 mid ~20s or low 30s fwd p/e, which makes sense given their growth ( $COHR does everything, $LITE OCS monopoly).

@aleabitoreddit Everyone knows now that S&P 500 inclusion is meant for Exit liquidity for initial Investors, no one wants to FOMO in at these nosebleed prices for $LITE & $COHR


Pretty sure both of them have 2028 mid ~20s or low 30s fwd p/e, which makes sense given their growth ( $COHR does everything, $LITE OCS monopoly)


Summary: Long EWY via LEAPS calls; MMs mispriced volatility, creating a call vega expansion opportunity.

@jseth53 Just saying $EWY leaps is still might be a good trade idea from call vega expansion since MMs likely priced in volatility wrong.

@aleabitoreddit so your saying to full port $ewy?


Summary: Bullish ARM: new product adding billions to $4.67B revenue base would be materially positive.

@GiovandomenicoC If $ARM does $4.67B annual revenue.

Then $ARM introduces a new product that does billions in annual revenue.

That would be very material. Of course need more time to look into details.

@aleabitoreddit i don‘t really get the notion though that it‘s a buy really, more so the other mentioned tickers


I still think Samsung/SK Hynix outperformance will carry $EWY index regardless so I'm personally holding

Summary: Holding EWY long on Samsung/SK Hynix outperformance; also prefers direct SK Hynix over EWY proxy given KRW devaluation.

@HeLiuLeo So $EWY as a proxy has gotten a tad worse due to current devaluation from Oil/War tensions.

So individually holding SK Hynix might be better as of now.

However, I still think Samsung/SK Hynix outperformance will carry $EWY index regardless so I’m personally holding

@aleabitoreddit Makes sense. I’m slightly concerned about SK’s new fab investments in China and how geopolitically they will play out. Do you like EWY as a proxy for Samsung and SK?


individually holding SK Hynix might be better as of now


Summary: Buy MCB on any mistaken algo/short-seller selloff; buy KRE if sector sells off on bank-failure headlines — both seen as isolated, not systemic.

The first US Bank of the year has just collapsed:

Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust has been shut down and placed into receivership by the FDIC.

Here's what likely happened and how markets might react:

The Chicago bank was a community bank by asset size ($261M), but operated with the risk of a boutique investment bank.

They operated in three segments:

- Tech-Infused Sports
- Digital Media
- Niche Real Estate Construction

From public information, we're able to see high concentration of risk in these two volatile sectors.

Namely, TMRW Sports, the venture founded by Tiger Woods. The bank didn't just facilitate the equity; it lent against it.

By providing "secured stock loans" and "NAV-backed financing", the bank allowed investors to borrow money to buy into the SPV.

Since the TGL venture dropped and the investment was illiquid, the collateral for these loans likely became worthless. The borrowers, facing liquidity constraints, would default on the loans.

The bank also financed "strategic add-on acquisitions" for clients in the digital media industry and Niche Real Estate Construction.

The bank’s involvement in "gap financing" for construction projects was likely equally toxic. MCB&T’s "creative" gap loans likely suffered total losses on projects that stalled or were foreclosed as construction sectors in 2024-2025 faced difficulty.

Snippet reveals that MCB&T held $43 million in FHLB advances against $261 million in assets (~16.5% of the balance sheet was funded by FHLB borrowing).

A series of terrible investments/loans likely caused the bank to collapse.

_

Commentary:

You'll probably see headlines regarding bank collapses and silver trades.

Yes, community banks are designed to be conservative institutions but they this bank in specific took on a high-risk venture debt models.

This wasn't a bank run, just a terribly run leveraged investment fund.

But here's what to look out for:

$MCB - Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp is not  Metropolitan Capital Bank.

The alpha is that if there's an algorithmic sell-off or short sellers mistaking the two, this would be a good buying opportunity.

$KRE - Looks like a buy if the sector sells off largely on "bank failure" headlines.

The bank ran a "casino" model on a community bank balance sheet, but this is isolated.

Look for commercial real estate exposure from small-cap Illinois/Midwest banks like CRE Loans or uninsured deposits ( > 50%) that might be affected.

However, this looks to be an extremely small regional bank and isolated incident so not much market opportunity here.


$KRE - Looks like a buy if the sector sells off largely on "bank failure" headlines


Summary: Bullish VPG as a sensor play on Tesla Optimus ramp, flagging CEO's scale-to-hundreds-of-robots-per-week-by-2026 comment as an inflection catalyst.

Been awhile since I covered $VPG.

This was a sensor play for $TSLA Optimus Ramp.

Very important breadcrumb this week at the Sidoti Conference:

"Potential to scale to hundreds of robots per week by the end of 2026."

Kinda sounds aligned with Optimus? No?

If we go off their CEO "$500-$1.2k per robot" statement: Not too shabby.

But of course, a lot of robotic supply chains are kind of dead money until the actual inflection point humanoids at scale hits.

Maybe Unitree IPO sparks some life into robotic supply chains soon?


저는 $NBIS 가 현재 매우 매력적이라고 생각합니다

Summary: Long NBIS (5 fast-growing units, 20-30% EBIT margin target) and CIFR (colocation); bearish CRWV on $1.2B+ debt interest eroding FCF.

저는 $NBIS 가 현재 매우 매력적이라고 생각합니다. $CIFR(네오클라우드가 아닌 코로케이션 부문) 같은 특정 종목들도 마찬가지입니다. 반면 $CRWV 는 그만큼 설득력이 있지는 않네요.

네비우스(Nebius)의 비즈니스 모델은 기본적으로 전년 대비(Y/Y) 100%씩 성장하는 5개의 회사가 하나로 합쳐진 형태입니다. ($UBER와 협력하는 자율주행 Avride, 약 150억 달러의 가치로 평가받는 Clickhouse, Toloka(AI 라벨링), 그리고 에듀테크). 여기에 약 70억 달러의 ARR(연간 반복 매출)을 기록한 주력 사업 부문이 포함됩니다.

따라서 이러한 낙관적인 매출 수치들은 실제 창출되는 FCF(잉여현금흐름)를 통해 면밀히 살펴봐야 하겠지만, 사측에서는 장기적으로 20%~30%의 EBIT 마진을 제시하고 있습니다.

가장 중요한 차이점은 코어위브(Coreweave)의 경우 12억 달러 이상의 부채 이자가 FCF를 잠식하고 있는 반면, 다른 기업들은 2~3% 수준의 저금리를 확보했다는 점입니다.

@aleabitoreddit CRWV and other Neocloud stocks have solid concepts and are clearly essential, but I’m hesitant to bet on a single stock.

My concern is the displacement risk. I feel like these players could be replaced at any time (though I could be wrong).

From an asymmetric risk-reward


$CIFR(네오클라우드가 아닌 코로케이션 부문) 같은 특정 종목들도 마찬가지입니다


$CRWV 는 그만큼 설득력이 있지는 않네요. 코어위브(Coreweave)의 경우 12억 달러 이상의 부채 이자가 FCF를 잠식하고 있는 반면


I'm long $RDDT at $139. Reddit presents an incredible opportunity after the -44.9% drop last month. Blowout Q4 earnings... Reddit is a money printer waiting for premiums to catch up.

Summary: Long RDDT at $139 after -44.9% drop; blowout Q4 earnings, ~$2.5B cash, 0 debt, 70% YoY growth, forward P/E ~27-30, durable network effects.

I'm long $RDDT at $139.

Reddit presents an incredible opportunity after the -44.9% drop last month.

Blowout Q4 earnings, but likely short-term option chain + liquidity influencing price.

Results TLDR:

Q4 Revenue: $726M (70% Y/Y growth)
Net Income: $252M
Cash: ~$2.5 Billion, 0 Debt.
Q1 2026 Guidance: $595M – $605M (52% – 54% YoY)

Data licensing was only $36 Million of it (so this was all operational).

This is $HOOD levels profitability and incredible blaance sheet. To have net income reach close to ~1/3 of revenue, while growing 70% Y/Y, is incredible.

Modeled forward P/E may be around ~27-30 ( $WMT for reference 46+ now growing in line with inflation)

Reddit is not going anywhere. You can't disrupt Reddit by vibecoding it with Opus 4.6 and Cursor, because the main point of it is network effect.

Reddit is a money printer waiting for premiums to catch up.


$ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies... Fwd EV/revenue multiples was ~28s+ now for Ondas... So IMO higher upside with other drone companies

Summary: ONDS richly priced at 28x+ fwd EV/rev vs peers; prefers AVAV, KTOS, DPRO, AIRO for drone exposure on cheaper multiples.

Personally speaking, I feel like $ONDS is richly priced compared to other drone companies.

I have $AVAV, $DPRO, $KTOS, and $AIRO for drone exposure.

(Just going off the top of my head, dont take this too literally) Fwd EV/revenue multiples was ~28s+ now for Ondas. Even AVAV was 8-9 and they were in the replicator program.

Airo was for counter UAV for replicator 2.

When I bought $AIRO was trading at ~2.5 fwd p/s (probably higher now, maybe 3-4's).

Even $DPRO might even be potential 2.8 from some rev calculations.

So IMO higher upside with other drone companies.

@aleabitoreddit I loved $MP earlier last year, but sold it at $100 after that extreme run up even though I considered it a long term hold, the gains were too nice to turn down. Fell off my radar recently but would love an entry back in.

What’s your thoughts on $ONDS? I’m not sure if you’re


I have $AVAV... for drone exposure. Even AVAV was 8-9 and they were in the replicator program


$DPRO might even be potential 2.8 from some rev calculations


I have $AVAV, $DPRO, $KTOS, and $AIRO for drone exposure


When I bought $AIRO was trading at ~2.5 fwd p/s... So IMO higher upside with other drone companies


$AAOI doesn't need it since they're likely in $AMZN, $MSFT, and $ORCL / $META roadmaps

Summary: Bullish AAOI: doesn't need NVDA partnership given likely design wins in Amazon, Microsoft, Oracle, and Meta roadmaps.

@Sher_Lockknows No. But $AAOI doesn’t need it since they’re likely in $AMZN, $MSFT, and $ORCL / $META roadmaps.

@aleabitoreddit Think $AAOI will get a nvidia partnership ?


Summary: Long EWY: expects it to double again as leveraged ETFs and SK Hynix/Samsung perps gain popularity, driving further IV expansion.

Makes sense though, 2028 leaps were extremely mispriced, not short dated options.

Would probably be a 200% gain alone off IV expansion off 2028 OTM $EWY options.

It’s caught up a decent amount but would probably double again once 2x leveraged ETFs and 10x leveraged SK Hynix and Samsung perps gain popularity.

@aleabitoreddit Thinking running debit call spreads on this was a mistake, didnt capture the full IV expansion but would have got some of it, but they were shorted dated and OTM so decent gains simply of EWY moving up, still slightly annoying wondering if leaps would have been safer and better


$AXTI I'm actually extremely bullish on out of the group of stocks I've posted and im a net buyer at these levels

Summary: Extremely bullish on AXTI, net buyer at current levels on rising indium prices and photonics ramp into 2027.

$AXTI I’m actually extremely bullish on out of the group of stocks I’ve posted and im a net buyer at these levels.

I’ll make a follow-up post but I just see 7n indium prices increase every day. And the photonics ramp are incredible if you look at 2027-2027.

I did take cut on others like $OSS, after a 100% rally but still hold positions. $LPTH there was some concerning stuff regarding cheaper germanium alternatives so I did trim some positions.

I’m in a weird situation where I need to be truthful/objective but don’t enjoy posting bear updates or when I sell since I don’t want to spread panic. So I just lean on the side of caution by refraining from it unless it’s extremely material (like an ATM)

Last time I posted about selling $IREN I had a flood of negative comment spam for the next few weeks.

@aleabitoreddit Did you rotate out of $AXTI $OSS $VLN $LPTH or any of those other somewhat recently entered positions?


Summary: Long AXTI and IQE as upstream photonics BOM plays; IQE held as position, AXTI seen as moonshot on supply-chain re-rating.

Was the first to talk about $AXTI in relation to photonics BOM/supply chains:

$IQE is very interesting too as one of the only Western suppliers.

Basically if you look at photonics flow on $GOOGL TPU/hyperscaler ASICs kinda looks like this (very likely, but undisclosed):

Optical Transceivers (highest BOM):

Lumentum/Cloud Light:
~ Vital / $AXTI-> $AXTI/Sumitomo/JX -> $IQE (Epi-Wafers) -> $LITE / Cloud Light -> $FN (Contract Manufacturing) -> $GOOGL TPU

Merhcant optical supply chain:

~ Vital / $AXTI -> $AXTI / Sumitomo / JX  -> → $LITE / $AVGO / $COHR (EML) + $MRVL / $MTSI / Semtech -> Innolight/Eoptolink -> $GOOGL

So if you want moonshot-type photonics BOM / price-hikes stocks deeper upstream in the photonics BOM: $AXTI, $IQE and your way to go.

$AXTI had terrible fundamentals before but the recent Northland fundraising round cemented its run.

$IQE has terrible fundamentals now (Net debt £23.5 million) but is probably one of the most critical parts of the supply chain. If they manage to sell their Taiwan operations, wouldn't be surprised if it went up quite a bit just from their inp business.

There's £18m convertible notes (which is basically nothing), then there's 120 to 154m new shares (~12% to 15%), which is also kinda nothing relative to current size.

On the other hand, others $LITE and Innolight are probably more established.

TLDR:

$IQE -> seems critical to Western supply chains, $130MC. Net debt, if they sell Taiwan business -> strong re-rating or they might just dilute you anyway.

But if the Taiwan business fails to be sold, probably expect to be diluted to oblivion like Wolfspeed. So huge, huge, risk ad do you own research into risks.

But $AXTI and $IQE might are personally interesting to me (I do own $IQE).


It doesn't change my bullish thesis around $378/month US supply chain from laser -> design -> assembly being very mispriced at $8B with $AAOI

Summary: Still bullish AAOI on mispriced US supply chain thesis at $8B, despite ATM dilution concerns.

It doesn’t change my bullish thesis around $378/month US supply chain from laser -> design -> assembly being very mispriced at $8B with $AAOI.

But it does change some views on share appreciation, as ATMs are very net negative way to get there ($250m was fine after projections).

Doubling that by another $250m after the first ATM gives left a very bearish impression like what $POET did.

And now, main concern is doing it again after their new round finishes. Which is why $AAOI should have just announced the amount they needed form the start.


Summary: Long AAOI as a rare pure US-fab optical play commanding a valuation premium.

@Investmnt_Eagle $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AVGO, and Eoptolink.

$AAOI is one of the only pure "Made in America" texas fab. So it will get the premium.

@aleabitoreddit Projecting this forward. What other companies could announce something similar?


Summary: Holding SNDK shares; dismisses WD share-sale overhang, fundamentals will prevail medium-to-long term.

@visheratin No? If i were holding 1 week options I would be but I'm just holding shares of $SNDK.

Fundamentals matter more than share sales over the medium-long term.

@aleabitoreddit Aren't you afraid it'll drop even more until WD unloads their remaining shares?