Summary: Long VPG as the best asymmetric play on humanoid robotics ramp via Tesla Optimus and Figure AI; bull case $47–83B MC from $580M on BOM capture + 55% margins.

$VPG is one of the least known robotic supply chain stocks.

However, it's likely the single best asymmetrical exposure to robotics Humanoid ramp for

- $TSLA Optimus

~ Figure AI

as this $580m company makes:

est. ~3-9% BOM cost of every humanoid.

$8.5B revenue may come from $TSLA alone ($850 midpoint * 10M) every year if Elon hits his 10M Giga Texas production target in 2027.

This is based on $VPG CEO's quote on value capture of $500–$1,200 per robot ($850 midpoint) and Elon's ambitious projections on production targets.

Again this math is extremely speculative, but Elon quotes $20-30k/humanoid at scale and you can derive an est. ~3%-9%+ of BOM from each Tesla Robot produced (if this does ever happen) for $VPG.

If you consider Elon Musk saying "About 80% of Tesla's Value Could Eventually Come From Optimus Robots": This looks like great exposure for robotics ramp for such a small company that's critical in the robotics supply chain.

What I believe markets also missed is factoring in low end corporate margins to for blended margin estimates: ~40%

However, the humanoid-specific gross margin at scale is projected to be 50% to 55% (and with current robotics ramp, blended margins would likely increase significantly).

Their integrated actuator/sensor Modules (sensor + housing + electronics) is likely directly tethered to humanoid exposure, (measurement systems segment which houses these complex assemblies), which the CEO said on their earnings call achieves margins of "55% or so".

In a bull case scenario where Elon hits his 10M humanoid projections in 2028 (single customer, not including Figure, OpenAI, or other potential customers)

55% margin off $8.5B revenue at :

- 20x P/E would be $47.6 Billion
-30x P/E $83.3 Billion

from $580m MC.

It sounds stupid, but when I look at $SMCI pre-server rack rally ($3 -> $113) or $SNDK's rally ($30 -> $453), it looks possible.

Again this is speculative best case possible scenario, but the operating leverage is the real story here.

So I think it's likely for this small $580m company to be strongly re-rated if the stars align for robotics ramp.

Now downside risk:

- The other humanoid provider is likely to be Figure due to timeline mapping. But this is not confirmed. (not taking credit for either mapping research, they were done by other analysts). These figures are hypothetical modeling based on third-party estimates like Citron, gross margins might be compressed if there's competitors or revenue ramp might not play out.

- $TSLA has likely been using $VPG since 2022 and is starting to ramp up. There is always a risk they figure out the patented technology/materials in-house and drop a customer. This bull-case scenario is tethered to Tesla Optimus ramp and there's always a risk they get dropped that markets might price in.

- Again this is a humanoid scale play. If Elon's projections are too ambitious and face delays, this might be stagnant like 2025 (which was still ~85% return).

But TLDR:

My opinion was that institutional analysts like Citron were way too early.

However, given OpenAI's push into robotics last week:

I believe 2026 to be the inflection point for robotics and $VPG likely captures the best exposure to Tesla and Humanoid robotics ramp.

Especially when a small company likely has high % BOM cost of each robot deployed and high gross margins:

I've taken long positions to see where this ends up. Of course DYOR on this, I just wanted to share how I came to develop my own conviction on this long.

I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m).

This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus.

Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play:

For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for https://t.co/c21atQhoMe


Summary: Strong long on UAMY as rare US antimony player with $245M sole-source contract; also implicitly long copper via COPX.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'

I've been looking into $SHMD awhile back since one of their customers was reportedly $AVGO. But still can't wrap my head around taking a long position yet.

I put $COPX up there as Copper.

$UAMY is an amazing long for antimony one of the only US players. $245m sole source contract is huge too for stockpiles.

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts about $SHMD, $UAMY, Copper?


Summary: Bullish AVAV, AIRO, and RKLB; expects market caps to follow their tech advancements.

@Nerd_0ne Kamikaze drones from $AVAV to $AIRO are really cool. I think the marketcaps follow the tech eventually like $RKLB!

@aleabitoreddit Kamikaze drones FTW!

Moat - I was able to find 10 patents associated with "Aspen Avionics" (AIRO acquired in 2020). The newest was filed in 2023. Couldn't find any underneath "AIRO" or "AIRO Group Holdings"  Cheers 🍻 https://t.co/hyghDZ8RK3


marketcaps follow the tech eventually like $RKLB


Summary: Bullish AAOI despite insider selling; $378M revenue at 36-40% gross margins H2 2027 at $7B MC makes insider sales immaterial if they execute.

Insider selling is probably the least material thing I look at if a company gives projections or serves as a bottleneck.

$AAOI gave projections of $378M/revenue off ~36-40% gross margins H2 2027 and they're a $7B MC.

Don't care if someone sells their shares as long as they execute and hit projections.

Same concern was said about $AXTI on Reddit 2 months ago when I first posted it around $12 and it's tripled since then.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think of insider selling in AAOI?


I'm long shares on $AXTI. AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play for the impending hyperscale photonics ramp in 2027 -> onward.

Summary: Long AXTI as the InP substrate/precursor bottleneck for hyperscale photonics ramp; supply shortages expected H2 2026 into 2027+ buildout.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

I'm long shares on $AXTI.

We're seeing the HBM/NAND supercycle with $SNDK, $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung today.

With constant price hikes due to extreme demand.

The next? -> Photonics | CPO | Optical Interconnects.

Demand scale up looks parabolic. (Lightcounting)

My thesis was on on AXT was that they're the material bottleneck from InP Substrates to the precursor supply chain. And LightCounting's projections tripled the demand forecast in the past few months.

This is a physics/material problem.

In the future, Western supply chains can engineer away less InP substrates/feedstock usage with SiPh or $POET interposers. But hyperscalers can't get around it.

Currently, midstream bottlenecks like $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, and others rely on Western supply chains like Sumitomo | JX (Japan).

But many precursors that companies these companies originated from China. After China's most recent export controls, the Japanese companies have some production, but without raw precursors, they are likely using inventory (maybe 1 year, there is no public information).

But as hyperscaler demand ramps up, the inventory will disappear, leaving more control of the supply chain to $AXTI.

We've already see $NVDA secure EML capacity (which uses InP). CPO CW lasers, SOA, and other components also use InP.

The "shortage" bottleneck is the same InP wafer lines that $AXTI chokepoints.

Judging from the projections, I expect hyperscalers to start securing inventory for the 2028 ramp in 2026, leading to supply shortages H2 2026.

$AXTI's main issue is export controls + 60D administrative delays. China is likely playing their hand with $AXTI to force American hyperscalers to become dependent on their supply chain over Japan.

This has been a double edged sword as seen with their pre-earnings release with delayed revenue recognition. But these export controls hurt their competitors in Sumitomo the most.

Even if we don't see 100% monthly price hikes upstream, the base-case is ramped up demand for InP substrates and precursors increasing AXT's bottom line revenue.

AXT remains my most bullish material chokepoint play for the impending hyperscale photonics ramp in 2027 -> onward.

Before I expected this to be a short few month play for risk management, but after looking new data and architectures involving photonics, I think $AXTI will likely be a critical player for the AI buildout moving forward.

My thesis might be early, or perhaps this may very well be the inflection point.

Korean memory stocks likely have a lot of repricing to do.

Forward P/E for 2026 (Morgan Stanley):

SK Hynix ~4.3x
Samsung Electronics ~5.1x

For exposure: $EWY or $FLKR | $HY9H.

Even after going up 15-30% every month, they're cheaper than ever. https://t.co/lzUH0jWxk1


Hope it goes up even more over the next few weeks, capex spend was overblown since they're printing money and growing at astounding rates.

Summary: Bullish META from here; capex fears overblown, strong cash generation and growth rates support further upside.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Btw this $META call at $625 was only 2 weeks ago. 🎯

Hope it goes up even more over the next few weeks, capex spend was overblown since they’re printing money and growing at astounding rates. https://t.co/ElqIsW49al

I added positions in $META at $625

My theory:

Big beautiful bill wrecked their last earnings despite record beat.

This caused an speculated algorithmic selloff from artificially low looking EPS (-80% drop)

This works in reverse for next earnings.

Q4 earnings -> EPS looks https://t.co/IwOckolGLW


Summary: Bullish on photonics supply chain — IQE, AAOI, and Lumentum repricing higher as optical transceiver boom and $4.5B AAOI ARR projection drive institutional flows into upstream photonics.

The two largest photonics epiwafer fabs

- $IQE ( $LITE supplier) is up 62.53% this week

- Landmark is up 23.95% this week.

And they’re both on a tear.

Both are up 7-9% today so far.

Markets are probably pricing in the optical transceiver boom signaled from $AAOI earnings and Nvidia’s investment into Coherent and Lumentum.

Photonics is a new paradigm shift for AI  for the foreseeable future and institutions are aggressively repositioning into upstream bottlenecks in the photonics supply chains.

Markets are typically forward looking, so if companies like $AAOI project $4.5B ARR a year from now, then AAOI along with the entire supply chain will start to get repriced in now.


if companies like $AAOI project $4.5B ARR a year from now, then AAOI along with the entire supply chain will start to get repriced in now


institutions are aggressively repositioning into upstream bottlenecks in the photonics supply chains


Summary: Even in a downside execution scenario, AAOI remains undervalued at $6B market cap.

@HeLiuLeo even if they can’t scale up internal laser fab (buying from $COHR) and end up as a US Innolight/eoptolink, $AAOI is still undervalued at $6b

@aleabitoreddit What do you make of execution risks?


That's $AXTI with the InP substrate + feedstock supply chain and hyperscalers

Summary: Long AXTI: irreplaceable InP substrate/feedstock bottleneck means hyperscalers will pay a massive premium over raw cost — traditional P/S or P/E metrics miss this.

I keep this all over X:

Stop trying to model bottlenecks with traditional metrics like P/S or P/E…

For $AXTI:

It’s like you found a restroom after eating 20 Tacos with Pinto Beans from Taco Bell.

You’re out of the toilet paper… but it’s urgent.

A random guy next to you offers you toilet paper for $20.

But the toilet paper raw cost is $1 from Amazon.

But because there’s no supply, and you need that Toilet Paper:

You’re happy to pay $20.

That’s $AXTI with the InP substrate + feedstock supply chain and hyperscalers.


Summary: Short CRWV on debt interest burden + GPU depreciation; long NBIS and CIFR as a hedge in a pair trade.

$CRWV is probably the only $50B+ company I can think of that is likely going to go bankrupt. At least $ORCL has a profitable core business and owns tons of assets like  15% of Tiktok.

Coreweave is a clear short to me purely because a large part of their revenue will be used to pay off debt interest. Then you compound that with GPU depreciation.

But it's a good idea to hedge. I would personally long $NBIS, $CIFR short $CRWV, seems decent for long term. Nvidia is keeping them alive for now.

@aleabitoreddit lost my shirt shorting $CRWV this month.... will try again after march. I think it's a very clear short, just don't have the money to short it now.


I would personally long $NBIS, $CIFR short $CRWV, seems decent for long term.


Summary: SIVE and TSEM flagged as more attractively valued alternatives to AXTI at current levels.

@beauty_oe あなたも10ドル台から $AXTI をカバーしていましたよね！あそこまで上昇したのは本当に見事です。
今の水準だと少し高値圏にあるので、バリュエーション的にもっと魅力的かもしれない $SIVE や $TSEM といった他の銘柄もシェアしておきたいと思いました。

🌟セレ様、フォトニクス銘柄について語る

自分の10倍狙いの銘柄 $AXTI は、結果的に本当に月まで到達した。

もし乗り遅れたと感じているなら：

→ $SIVE は、今の株価水準での次の10倍候補として個人的に一番のお気に入り
→ $AAOI


medium-long term this is actually bullish. A strong dollar makes the AI companies the ability to buys globally cheaper, and Warsh's 'AI Productivity Boom' thesis allows short term rate cuts, which fuel high-growth tech

Summary: Medium-long term bullish on US AI/high-growth tech: strong dollar enables cheaper global buying and rate cuts fuel growth.

Broad US AI/tech sector best proxied by QQQ

Silver dropped 28% and Gold dropped 8.35% on Friday, est. ~$7.34T wiped out.

This creates a large liquidity vacuum where other assets from Bitcoin, tech, to small cap gets sold off to meet margin calls or raise cash.

Is this likely a short term (eg. 24-48) hour flush, with CME raising margin requirements by another few percent on the 2nd. However, medium-long term this is actually bullish.

A strong dollar makes the AI companies the ability to buys globally cheaper, and Warsh’s "AI Productivity Boom" thesis allows short term rate cuts, which fuel high-growth tech.

@aleabitoreddit Black Monday my ass. We’re on!


Summary: Long AAOI for next year; sees limited downside from $5B even if projections missed by 40%, upside if execution delivers.

My first buy was in the high 20s, low 30's so around the same! I just remember hyperscaler qualifcation and expected them to pull an $ALAB.

Yeah name of the game is execution with $AAOI, but if they hit, the ROI is just enormous.

I don't really see too much downside from $5B here even if they miss projections by 40%, so I'm in for the ride for the next year.

The excitement around $AAOI is palpable

This was a name that for the most part sat on the sidelines of the optical supercycle while others like $LITE $COHR $GLW etc. ripped

I think the reason this is so exciting is because of that very fact.

Everyone sees the gains that these


hyperscalers wanted to buy anything they can make. It's moreso production ramp and just drives the first point home that demand > supply across the board

Summary: Long AAOI: only US-made 800G/1.6T supply chain play, hyperscaler demand far outstrips supply, no flood risk, potential upside from export controls on Chinese competitors.

- even if everyone produces 800g/1.6T there’s not enough. Demand far outstrips supply.

It’s not quite the trio Samsung/sk Hynix/micron but $AAOI is probably the only one from made in America supply chains since $COHR does assembly in Malaysia and $LITE -> $FN Thailand and other places in Asia.

- in their call they detailed hyperscalers wanted to buy anything they can make. It’s moreso production ramp and just drives the first point home that demand > supply across the board.

Don’t think we’ll see flooding bc demand will eat up anything the players can make for the foreseeable future. And nonzero chance there’s export controls like cmxt/YMTC from memory on Chinese players

@aleabitoreddit Very compelling idea. thanks for sharing. Highly uncovered by the street and somehow 2027 ests didn’t move that much post the call.. creating lots of opportunity for this to drift upward as we get revisions

Some questions (that may not matter near term):

Given AAOI has to


Summary: Agrees $13B valuation is a buying opportunity; hard to see it go below $10B given fundamentals.

@gofallingknife Agreed, $13B valuation for $SMCI looks like a buying opportunity to me as well.

Could be near term fluctuations around the level but hard to see it going below $10B given fundamentals

@aleabitoreddit Already bought it at $22. Headlines create the best opportunities and this is no where near a broken company.


Summary: Slightly positive lean on AXTI medium-term as US EO tightens InP supply chain control, validating bottleneck thesis.

Good question, I didn't put 1+1 together at the time and missed the one-hop relational impact with $AXTI.

My take is basically, no impact short/medium term, but leans slightly positive for AXT since there's a 6 month limbo. Emcore is very tiny in comparison, but US gov is trying to gain control of any little % of the upstream control.

This was just affirmation that US government now views InP supply chains as a national security priority and is validating the InP bottlenek thesis I put out earlier.

TLDR: EOs seizing InP supply chain assets was a move to regain independence from China long term, but short-medium term bottleneck is even more severe with $ATI

@aleabitoreddit I got the EO on Jan2, but couldn't connect it to this,  so in basic terms this should ease the bottle necks on InP for us in general but will be more or alternative source for AXTI ?

Would you care to clear that angle , thanks.


InP substrates is a massive bottleneck for photonics. 7N Indium High Purity Indium (non standard) has reached all time highs on SMM, recently. $AXTI is very. highly. correlated. Demand does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon.

Summary: Long AXTI: InP substrate bottleneck + 7N indium at ATH; demand not slowing, no NAND-style price hike yet.

As expected from my original $AXTI thesis:

InP substrates is a massive bottleneck for photonics.

And:

7N Indium High Purity Indium (non standard) has reached all time highs on SMM, recently.

$AXTI is very. highly. correlated.

Tracking derivatives on SMM and other markets is likely the best insight you'll get into performance.

Demand does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. We haven't gotten to the point of NAND-style price hikes yet either.

Warning: The entire AI industry will likely be bottlenecked by two companies:

1. $AXTI ($700M)
2. $SMTOY ($31.7B)

Which both control 60–70%+ of the world's InP substrates.

Future $NVDA, $GOOGL TPU v7 pods, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN hyperscaler clusters require InP-based lasers and https://t.co/8mqrgONJbb


Summary: Still long NBIS into 2026 and long VLN on undervaluation: $120m cash, $200m MC, $80m fwd rev, 63% GM — expects MC to catch up to fundamentals.

Thesis should play out by itself without me posting. My thesis with $NBIS for 2026 hasn't changed at all since last year.

Same with $VLN, it's basically sitting on $120m off $200m MC right now doing $80m forward revenue, 63% gross margins.

MC should catch up to fundamentals once market makers stop with their shenanigans from mass OI expiry today across the board.

@aleabitoreddit When ya gonna post on $VLN again :)


MC should catch up to fundamentals once market makers stop with their shenanigans from mass OI expiry today across the board


Summary: Long AAOI (5x to ~$30B MC) and SIVE (20-30x) on optical supercycle capacity ramp; also flags LWLG as undervalued at $1.1B+.

I feel like markets should value:

$AAOI $93 -> $162 (~$13B MC) after their new capacity projections today.

and

$SIVE should be valued at 7.7 -> 38.5 ($1.1B MC) at least?

If one is ramping to ~$1.97B capacity EOY 2027 (which is basically revenue, since hyperscalers are buying anything they can make)

Then the other is the likely laser supplier to hyperscaler supply chains from $AMZN Trainium to $MSFT Maia Clusters?

At the very least, should price in forward revenue growth.

This is including execution uncertainty, and without premiums assigned to others like $LWLG at $1.1b+.

If Win semi qualifies $SIVE and $POET/Ayar/and others scale up. I feel like $SIVE valuation could easily 20x-30x from here?

If $AAOI hits $378M/month projections, could easily 5x from here to a ~$30B MC.

These possible price targets is how insane the optical supercycle is (like memory), but largely depends on how each company can execute.


without premiums assigned to others like $LWLG at $1.1b+


Summary: Bearish BTC-correlated miners IREN/CIFR/WULF on BTC price drop; prefers NBIS as purer HPC/neocloud play.

Negative until they have less correlation with Bitcoin given Bitcoin's recent price drop. Neoclouds like $NBIS are a bit more pure play to the sector.

Last I recall, $CIFR balance sheet had a lot of Bitcoin exposure and a lot of $IREN's profit comes from Bitcoin mining.

Revenue numbers are a lot of noise since revenue from Bitcoin mining vs HPC hits the balance sheet a lot different. But as they scale up, it should be less materially impacted.

@aleabitoreddit What do you expect for $BTC correlated, DC companies, e.g. $IREN $CIFR $WULF?


Neoclouds like $NBIS are a bit more pure play to the sector


Summary: Bullish XLU: Trump data-center energy deals reduce regulatory risk, guarantee infrastructure funding, and clear the AI energy trade bottleneck.

Trump's State of the Union is now ongoing.

The President is expected to announce "data center energy deals" during his speech.

This is a positive tailwind for the Power/Grid sector as there's:

1. Reduced Regulatory and Political Risk

- Regulated utilities in $XLU are expected to cost burden to hyperscalers from Google to Microsoft.

2. Guarantees Funding for Massive Infrastructure Growth

- The AI race requires a massive a new buildout of grid capacity and generation. Having hyperscalers commit to "pay their own way" provides utilities with highly capitalized counterparties.

- Utilities get to build the new infrastructure (which drives EPS growth) without worrying about if the end-user can pay up.

3. Clears the Bottleneck for the "AI Energy Trade"

- Regulators in states like Virginia and Ohio have been actively debating how to slow down data center approvals specifically because of the cost fears. These agreements directly addresses the biggest hurdle to new data center construction.

For the Power/Grid sector in $XLU, this is fundamentally good news.

We'll see what Trump's actual remarks are on the sector soon.


Summary: Stay long US equities; tariff/Greenland noise doesn't matter given strong US economic growth.

@SukhTatla Bitcoin markets are a pretty good proxy, there’s almost no price drops.

I don’t think markets seem to care much about tariffs anymore since this is a daily occurrence.

US economic growth is an absolute powerhouse, so i personally would just stay long and ignore the noise

@aleabitoreddit Thanks, what do think this Greenland/Tariff will do to the markets on Tuesday?


Summary: Bullish EWY: IV expansion to ~60% could double calls again, plus upside from EWY price appreciation.

@jflood215 Anytime, I like to publish my ideas for free for anyone to read!

IV could easily expand to ~60% given the volatility, so calls might double again off IV expansion (not including $EWY price going up)

@aleabitoreddit My OTM leaps have doubled since your post 🚀 Thanks again


Summary: Korean memory stocks have major repricing to do; SK Hynix ~4.3x and Samsung ~5.1x 2026 P/E are cheap; play via EWY/FLKR.

Korean memory stocks likely have a lot of repricing to do.

Forward P/E for 2026 (Morgan Stanley):

SK Hynix ~4.3x
Samsung Electronics ~5.1x

For exposure: $EWY or $FLKR | $HY9H.

Even after going up 15-30% every month, they're cheaper than ever. https://t.co/lzUH0jWxk1

The Memory Supercycle is here.

New reports from Morgan Stanley est.

- Samsung's net profit ~$163.0B USD
- SK Hynix's ~$120.9B USD.

That would make Samsung the most profitable company in the world, even more than $NVDA and $GOOGL.

Here are the top 10 rankings:

1. Samsung https://t.co/EllvfY0dxq


Summary: Endorses SIMO as a great long despite its prior rally.

@LAMINAR27174405 Nope but great long. This one is the very start of the cycle, $SIMO has already rallied quite a bit.

@aleabitoreddit $SIMO fits this description


I'd expect sk hynix/samsung to heavily carry returns

Summary: Bullish EWY; expects SK Hynix/Samsung to carry returns despite FX headwind concerns.

@NicholasBardy I’m more worried about currency exchange rates on $EWY than I am on individual companies.

But regardless I’d expect sk hynix/samsung to heavily carry returns

@aleabitoreddit I been white knuckling this shit, brutal how much I was down. Still am, knuckles getting whiter.

Leaps on EWY may still be exposed some as Korean economy is only 50% memory companies


Summary: Still long NBIS with major ARR ramp expected Q4/Feb; acceleration into year-end and post-midterms.

$NBIS major ramp up to $8B ARR is q4 earnings so maybe Feb of next year? Still one of my favorite longs but right now is just silent buildout phase.

Should see acceleration toward end of this year and past midterms.

I think in recent history post-midterm, 100% of the time indexes went up. And pre-midterm was around 60%.

@aleabitoreddit Do you still see $NBIS as a long? I rememebr you had $400 target by EOY...


Summary: Bullish SNDK; expects Citron short position to add fuel to the ongoing rally.

@MrHase0 Congrats on 67% YTD!

Yeah $SNDK and $AXTI have been hard outperforming the market both up over 100%+ in the last two months.

I think the recent Citron shorts to Sandisk will just add fuel to the rally. https://t.co/s15nu19khI

@aleabitoreddit Dont listen to them, bro, haters gonna hate. Just keep up the good work💯

bcs of you, my portfolio challenge look like this. Thanks for recommending AXTI and SNDK https://t.co/uO7uEXStRm


Yes I own $RPI. It's a very small weighting in my portfolio.

Summary: Holds a small position in Raspberry Pi; bullish thesis based on unpriced revenue growth and TAM, not meme-stock narrative.

Raspberry Pi Holdings listed on LSE as RPI.L

Yes I own $RPI. It’s a very small weighting in my portfolio.

What gets me riled up is this: "fondness for the company itself rather than financial performance or potential".

The whole thesis was around unpriced financials from revenue growth to TAM.

I’d rather not have a profitable fabless semi like Raspberry Pi turn into a meme stock just because the media wants to make something up.

@aleabitoreddit Are you still holding $RPI? I suppose if it went on to become a meme stock, it would make for a good story... Lots of Brits would get behind it.


Long $JETS (US Airliner ETF) 2028 calls where IV is 25%... $JETS at sub 30 IV is the best way to go

Summary: Long JETS 2028 calls as the best way to play inverse crude; also implicitly bearish oil as it reverts to mean.

For trade ideas if you want to inverse Jim Cramer on the oil trade:

Long $JETS (US Airliner ETF) 2028 calls where IV is 25%.

It’s priced low beta (25% IV) but it moved -20% this month.

Individual long on $DAL or $AAL carries elevated 55%+ IV, while the ETF basically moves relatively around the same rate.

US is largely insulated regarding oil compared to the rest of the world as well and the ETF is concentrated around US airliners.

Not exactly a very well kept secret airliners move in the opposite direction of oil.

Of course this trade carries risks in the event Jim Cramer, Wallstreetbets, and X doomposters are actually right about $200 oil.

But given the date, there’s enough time for oil prices to revert to mean + Venezuela production to get rolling.

TLDR: if you want to go the other direction of crude oil, $JETS at sub 30 IV is the best way to go.

There’s only one certainty in life.

If Jim Cramer. Wallstreetbets. And retail doomposters on X.

All agree on one thing:

Oil to 150-200 and a possible recession.

It’s wrong.

Crude Oil has since dropped 16% intraday from 116 to 98. https://t.co/xgjgxLRCq1


if you want to go the other direction of crude oil


Summary: Bullish AAOI: $200M hyperscale 1.6T order confirms $378M/month revenue trajectory; insider sales fears overblown, fundamentals intact.

$AAOI Receives First $200M Volume Order of 1.6T Data Center Transceivers from Major Hyperscale Customer”

“We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for 800G and 1.6T transceivers in the U.S”

This is gradual confirmation of $378m/month revenue from their earnings projections.

People were panicking over insider sales, but what matters is execution and fundamentals.

Especially when they’re getting volume orders from Hyperscalers like $AMZN, $META, or $GOOGL


Summary: Rotating fintech into power via long XLU leaps; also holding CVX leaps.

@Sandeman52 Thanks! Biggest concentration in memory, photonics, and semi bottlenecks right now. Tons of random Japanese and Korean supply chain names like Nittobo and SK Hynix.

Shifting a lot of my fintech positions into power like $XLU leaps + holding some $CVX leaps.

@aleabitoreddit Amazing.  Got me beat.  What are your biggest positions?


Summary: Shares Macquarie projections showing Samsung and SK Hynix at absurdly low forward P/E (3.7x / 2.2x by 2027), implying both are deeply undervalued; author's astonishment signals bullish lean.

My mind is blown on Samsung and Sk Hynix projections - $EWY?

Macquarie projects Samsung Electronics to make:

FY2026: ~$210.8 billion USD (+73% increase from prior KRW 172.1 trillion)
FY2027: ~$333.7 billion USD (+82% from KRW 260.1 trillion)

Sk Hynix:

FY2026: ~$190.5 billion USD (+58% from KRW 272.2 trillion)
FY2027: ~$312.8 billion USD (+77% from KRW 447 trillion)

(Numbers heavily depend on conversion rates).

If these projections are true:

The operating profit from SK Hynix from 2026+2027 are close to eclipsing it's current marketcap.

Macquarie's report slashed their projected forward P/E ratios to an absurd 3.7x by 2027 for Samsung and 2.2x for SK Hynix for 2027.

It feels unreal but these are genuine projections from Macquarie's desk.


Macquarie's report slashed their projected forward P/E ratios to an absurd 3.7x by 2027 for Samsung


Summary: Long Samsung and SK Hynix as obvious high-conviction trades; projected to become world's most profitable companies by 2027.

Honestly just looking at the quoted net income chart…

Makes you wonder why people try and full port it into contrarian turnaround plays like $PYPL, $FIG, or $DUOL

I feel like sitting back and chilling in profitable, hyper-growth companies like Samsung or SK Hynix is just the easiest thing to do?

They’re relatively small compared to Mag7, but projected to become the most profitable companies in the world in 2027.

Sometimes the best thing to do is just join in on the no-brainer trades and live life on easy mode.


sitting back and chilling in profitable, hyper-growth companies like Samsung or SK Hynix


Summary: Bullish ARM on its pivot to AI CPUs as a massive game changer with strong revenue projections, overcoming RISC-V concerns.

@piyush1337 I didn't long $ARM bc of RISC-V cannibalizing their model, but pivot to AI CPUs themself...

It's an incredibly massive game changer, esp if you look at revenue projections.

@aleabitoreddit I have been long on this when it was 80 around


Summary: Bearish HOOD: Robinhood Ventures concentrated in overvalued late-stage names like Stripe, Databricks, Revolut at inflated valuations.

Robinhood Ventures $RVI, is a major red flag.

$HOOD concentrates in firms that raised at inflated valuations like:

- Stripe @ $140B
- Databricks @ $134B
- Revolut @ $75B

A real venture fund would look like:

1. Lightmatter
2. Cerebras
3. SiFive
4. Anduril
5. Anthropic
6. World Labs
7. Fireblocks
8. Bytedance
9. Discord
10. Physical Intelligence

amid others.

Majority of this fund is concentrated in firms that freshly raised extremely high valuations.

I would not touch this from a mile away.


Summary: Bullish Samsung and SK Hynix on expectations of massive net profits in 2026-2027 and growing US investor demand for Korean equity exposure.

@Alisvolatprop12 삼성전자와 SK하이닉스가 2026~2027년에 거둘 것으로 예상되는 순이익은 정말 엄청난 수준입니다. SK하이닉스가 미국 증시에도 상장될 예정이라고 들었는데, 많은 미국 투자자들이 한국 주식에 대한 투자 기회(익스포저)를 원하고 있을 것이라 확신합니다.

한국 메모리 반도체 종목들의 가격 재평가가 이뤄진다면, 지금 코스피 지수는 우스운 수준이 되겠죠.

곧 리테일(개인) 외국인 투자자들을 위한 옴니버스 계좌가 옵니다.


SK하이닉스가 미국 증시에도 상장될 예정이라고 들었는데, 많은 미국 투자자들이 한국 주식에 대한 투자 기회(익스포저)를 원하고 있을 것이라 확신합니다


Summary: Impressed by AAOI earnings; photonics scale-up seen driving the stock much higher.

@crux_capital_ I don’t think I’ve been this impressed by earnings before.

That photonics scale up on $AAOI is just crazy.

Probably going much higher.


$LEU is a $5.83B MC company. They're the only company in the US that can currently enrich uranium into HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) for SMR nuclear power plants. DOE said one campus would attract "50 Billion in investments" from enrichment to recycling. It's only up 2% on the news, which was surprising.

Summary: Bullish LEU as sole US HALEU enricher for SMR plants with $50B DOE investment draw; surprised muted +2% reaction implies upside still ahead.

♻ $LEU is a $5.83B MC company.

And Centrus was the another company on the original bottleneck list.

They’re the only company in the US that can currently enrich uranium into HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) for SMR nuclear power plants.

DOE said one campus would attract “50 Billion in investments” from enrichment to recycling.

It’s only up 2% on the news, which was surprising.

“The Trump administration has made nuclear power a cornerstone of its national energy policy”

I'm surprised majority of the X detectives in the comments guessed this right.

I'll do a write-up on this mystery company soon.

From my research, it was unique to have US company own a large % of the AlSiC supply chain, as this material could be used for $NVDA Rubin gen for


Summary: If US strikes Iran, longs in oil (CVX, XLS), defense (AVAV, ITA), and pistachio play JBSS on supply disruption.

The funniest beneficary if US invades Iran was:

Pistachios.

Not even joking.

Did you know US (California) and Iran operate a virtual duopoly in pistachio production?

This is the $AXTI InP situation as the two control ~70-80% of the world’s supply.

Companies like $JBSS might benefit from Pistachio prices going up (if California becomes a monopoly)

Unfortunately there’s no Pistachio Futures, so I’m not taking any positions but I just found this fun fact amusing, so wanted to share.

I’ll do another writeup on more nuanced second order effects and potential longs soon.

US strikes seem likely so standard oil  like $CVX or $XLS and Defence like $AVAV or $ITA might be good longs/hedges here.


standard oil like $CVX or $XLS and Defence like $AVAV or $ITA might be good longs/hedges here


Defence like $AVAV or $ITA might be good longs/hedges here


Summary: CODA seen as the biggest direct beneficiary of the relevant trend vs peers.

@DanzTrader So far I’ve found $CODA to be the biggest direct beneficiary compared to the others. Still looking into other names though.

@aleabitoreddit $OPTT I think might be benefit the most. Their autonomous surface vehicles directly ties into the Navy's USV expansion plans, and potential new contracts, partnerships, etc…,

2nd bet will be $KRKNF


it's likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities

Summary: Bearish IREN on $6B dilution/share sales undermining the colo thesis; conditionally bullish HIMS now that NVO dropped lawsuit and partnered.

Most people on X make the mistake of getting married to a stock.

If your thesis materially changes with $HIMS or $IREN, so should your position.

If the bull case with $IREN last year was monetizing 3GW capacity through colo.

Then if the company:

-> inevitably dilutes you $6B off a $12.2B MC
-> sells those shares into the open market in every rally
-> pivots to GPU offerings

Your thesis has changed.

And it’s likely a time to exit to pursue more asymmetric opportunities.

If your thesis with $HIMS was that they’re the Amazon of healthcare.

But they get sued to oblivion by $NVO and the US gov. It’s respectable to exit.

But if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there’s nothing wrong with going long again.

A lot of things change every month with catalysts or fundamentals.

If you’re still cheering on an inevitable $6B worth of new shares getting sold against your $IREN positions on every rally.

And your only qualifier is “Trusting in Management” like $AMC investors.

Maybe it’s a good time to ask yourself this:

Are you ignoring every red flag because you’re married to the stock?

I see zero compelling case to hold $IREN.

Especially given the new $6B share dilution at a $12.8B marketcap.

People will likely see that marketcap inflate to $20-$25B.

But the value of their shares decrease over time.

The risk reward is just not there anymore.

Companies https://t.co/RZSnkkDZvy


if the thesis is back online given $NVO dropping their lawsuit and partnering up, then there's nothing wrong with going long again

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic


$LASR is the only US publicly traded, pure-play Energy Directed Weapons stock... markets may have missed the two-hop relation to NLight... $LASR is the pure play exposure for the future of warfare at a tiny $3.5B MC

Summary: Long LASR as the only pure-play US directed-energy weapons stock; Iron Beam's live debut validates its laser engine role, and markets may have missed the connection.

$LASR is the only US publicly traded, pure-play Energy Directed Weapons stock.

$LASR is the laser engine for Rafael's Iron Beam.

And markets may have missed the the two-hop relation to NLight.

The Iron Beam was live for the first time today and wildly successful.

An article: "America’s ongoing quest to stop firing $4 million missiles at $30,000 drones" was also put out today:

"For years, laser weapons were the novelty tool of the defense industry, always five years away and ten billion dollars over budget. Since late 2025, the dream is officially operational, baking threats in mid-air like dinner rolls.

The appeal is pure, unadulterated Einsteinian art. Instead of launching a sophisticated interceptor that  requires a PhD to maintain, the Iron Beam focuses a 100kW high-energy laser onto a target until its structural integrity ceases to exist.

There is no explosion, no exhaust trail to track, and, magically, no reload time. As long as the generator has that sweet, sweet diesel, you have an infinite  magazine."

$LASR is the pure play exposure for the future of warfare at a tiny $3.5B MC.

$LASR Energy Directed Weapons from the Iron Beam.

Is probably the single largest beneficiary and validation from the US / Israel vs. Iran conflict.

Hezbollah Fired Rockets into Israel.

-> $LASR (Nlight) laser engine inside of Rafael's Iron Beam shot them down.

It's https://t.co/m1EeFM5GwB


Summary: Long TSEM and SIVE as new positions; NBIS is top Neocloud sector pick.

@Ricky_Macchiato $TSEM and $SIVE are my two new choices.

$NBIS is my #1 Neocloud sector long.

@aleabitoreddit What is your favorite tech companies except Nebius and Soitec ? 😁 I read your post about IREN. I decided to take my profit from IREN. So i'm looking for a new position. Thank you !


Summary: Short crude oil: US Treasury considering futures market intervention to suppress prices; don't fight the government.

The $150-200 Crude Oil longs:

Are about to get a taste of what the Silver paper price manipulation is like.

This time, it’s coming from the US Gov, not bullion banks/CME.

Per Financial Times:

“US Treasury was considering measures to lower oil prices, including intervention in futures markets.”

The speculation was that it could be from the US Treasury,” he added, noting that the government has previously intervened in other markets.

I would not position against the US government wanting to contain crude oil prices.


Summary: Sell-off on Bloomberg Stargate headlines is a buying opportunity; AI spend now backed by profitable hyperscalers META and GOOGL, not just OpenAI.

It’s honestly impressive Bloomberg titles have managed to crash the Semi Market for a second day in a row.

$LITE down 14.4%
$NVDA down 3.5%
$TSM down 4.4%.

On the news that Oracle and OpenAI are not expanding a part of their Stargate project.

This looks more legitimate than yesterday’s report as the OpenAI contagion is spreading.

At the very bottom, they left added:

$META, to step in and consider leasing the planned expansion site in Abilene, Texas, from developer Crusoe.

This looks like a buying opportunity for specific names, as the AI trade has expanded far beyond OpenAI now and is now funded by profitable hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $META.


the AI trade has expanded far beyond OpenAI now and is now funded by profitable hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $META


No I'm long on memory and volatility increases. Q2 NAND prices were doubled by Samsung and likely SK Hynix, around 4-10 times more than analyst expectations. I expect that sector to directionally outperform.

Summary: Still long EWY; expects memory sector to outperform on NAND price surge 4-10x above analyst expectations.

@eclement04 No I’m long on memory and volatility increases. Q2 NAND prices were doubled by Samsung and likely SK Hynix, around 4-10 times more than analyst expectations.

There’s a lot of macro backdrop affecting majority of stocks, but I expect that sector to directionally outperform.

@aleabitoreddit Did you fully exit $EWY?


Summary: Long NBIS into earnings and beyond; expects $7-9B ARR EOY 700%+ y/y with $5B capex converting to $8B revenue by H2 2026-Q1 2027.

After seeing $IREN report earnings with no new hyperscaler deals.

And seeing hyperscaler capex exponentially increasing:

-> It looks more and more likely $NBIS has something cooking for earnings through process of elimination.

Few other TLDR tailwinds past few weeks:

- Older GPUs have massively increased in price (see previous). Better for balance sheet

- GPU availability dropped off the roof (increased demand)

- Hyperscaler capex spend blowout (a large portion was cited for DCs)

- $NBIS likely went through the 25M share ATM this quarter so hopefully the end of dilution is in sight.

- Clickhouse raising at $15B valuation (getting close to main company valuation)

- “Uber is not returning to developing its own robotaxis” and relying on partners like Avride (Nebius subsidiary)

Things are looking good.

With the price reset to $92, if Nebius is still on track for $7-9B ARR EOY (700%+ y/y), should be a positive hold through earnings.

Of course I expect most of the ramp to happen H2 2026 to Q1 next year as the $5B in buildout capex spend converts to recognized $8B midpoint revenue + FCF.

With $NBIS, you’re basically holding 5 companies, each growing triple digits Y/Y and waiting for valuation to reflect Sum of Parts + growth.


Summary: Endorses long VPG thesis on its likely Optimus BOM inclusion, corroborated by institutional reports.

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'

@kacper_kalinski Yes sorry I should have added highly likely.

$VPG link to Optimus was found by Citron. And cross checked that with a few institutional reports/newsletters recently that mentioned long $VPG because of Optimus. https://t.co/1THByp4zKP

@aleabitoreddit The $VPG share in Optimus BOM is not confirmed and highly speculative, no?


Summary: LITE is undervalued on a 2-year horizon despite being near-term overextended.

@ValarMorghuliz9 $LITE is very undervalued if you fast forward 2 years.

But as of now, it’s probably a tad overextended and markets have done a bit too much frontrunning imo.

@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on $LITE and where it is currently? - it doesn't want to take a break and be rationale 😳


Summary: Adding SIVE at market open on news; bullish JBL as major hyperscaler supplier in the space.

@Be_nice_dot_com I don't have enough $SIVE... Especially after this news and I'll probably add more market open.

$JBL is probably one of the largest players in this space and basically supply to all the hyperscalers.

@aleabitoreddit To the moon we go Serenity!


Summary: Bullish Macronix as the purest NOR Flash play with 30-35% market share and smaller MC vs peers.

Macronix I've talked about earlier on for NOR Flash. It's probably the most pure play out of the bunch since it's 30-35% of the market with a smaller MC of $6.7B compared to the others at $15B+

The hikes have been pretty modest so far, for it to pull a $SNDK, it will need to be a lot steeper.

@aleabitoreddit All have had huge run ups last 6 m


Summary: Buy BTC and ETH now while Fear & Greed hits extreme fear (15); historical extreme-fear entries returned 6–43% over 2 months.

Just In -- Today, Crypto Fear and Greed Index Hits:

15. Extreme Fear.

This has only happened in 3 periods since 2023:

~ 3/11/2025
~ 4/7/2025
~ 11/22/2025

If you bought $BTC and $ETH on each of those days and waited 2 months, here were the returns.

3/11: +33.7% (BTC), +39.5% (ETH)
4/7: +33.5%, +43.1%
11/22: +5.9%, +6.2%

The March/April dips were generational buying opportunities.

The November dip was a slower recovery, but very profitable nevertheless.

Regardless, this is a tale as old as time, buy during the fear, sell during the greed.


If you bought $BTC and $ETH on each of those days and waited 2 months


Summary: Long SIVE, AXTI, and SOI for multi-year hold on CPO TAM exponential growth thesis.

Just look at this graph. Straight line up for CPO TAM next few years.

Normally markets are scared of one-and-done cycles, but this looks exponential.

I said $SIVE could be the next $LITE so I’m long for awhile. Same with substrate providers like $AXTI and $SOI.

As for current transceiver bottlenecks, would re-evaluate next year.

@aleabitoreddit Are you considering those for long term holding, like 10+ years or short term trades?


High conviction long: $AAOI. I genuinely think this could easily be a 3x by next year. $AAOI remains an asymmetrical 1Y high conviction as long as management delivers.

Summary: High-conviction long AAOI as the only pure Made-in-America optical transceiver play; sees 3x in ~1 year as it leapfrogs LITE and others on revenue and margins.

High conviction long: $AAOI.

I genuinely think this could easily be a 3x by next year.

Nvidia funded $COHR, who does Malaysia manufacturing for 800G/1.6T.

$LITE uses FN in Thailand for volume production, and has it's own manufacturing in Thailand.

I will keep hammering this home but Applied Optoelectronics is only pure Made in America, optical transceiver play.

Again, the two "American" optical companies outsourced it to Asia, while $AAOI spent the years building up capacity and fabs in Texas.

Nvidia funded both $COHR and $LITE just now to build out a US-version to  insulate its most critical supply chain from geopolitical risks.

But guess who already has the supply chain setup and is years ahead in that regard? $AAOI.

$LITE ($55B) FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B

$AAOI ($7.1B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR.

$AAOI will actually leapfrong Lite FY 2026 projections if management executes (and with ~40% gross margins).

Once again. $AAOI ($7B) will leapfrog $LITE ($55B MC) entire 2026 revenue projections if they deliver their projections.

$FN over in Asia, 2026 projections are actually around the exact same as AAOI.

~4.39B revenue off 12.4% gross margins. And it's a $20B MC (with much lower margins)

Even if $AAOI hits 70% of their target, it's likely to be heavily re-rated way past it's current marketcap.

TLDR: Hard to see downside with $AAOI at these levels, especially with 3-4 hyperscalers (likely $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN) wanting to buy up any capacity it can make for years out. And with $GOOGL not going the CPO route.

$AAOI leapfrogs $CRDO, $ALAB, $LITE, and others in growth + benefits from photonics theme vs. copper (from the first two).

$AAOI remains an asymmetrical 1Y high conviction as long as management delivers.


Nvidia funded $COHR, who does Malaysia manufacturing for 800G/1.6T


just feel like $RKLB is a tad overvalued right now but long term it's my favorite pick

Summary: RKLB viewed as tad overvalued near-term despite long-term bullishness; AVAV added as a buy at $259.

$OSS, $AIRO, $DPRO, $LPTH (sorta) are defense stocks. Forgot to include $AVAV up there but I’d add that in at $259.

There was peace with Greenland so no really military catalysts recently. But they might pick up again with new Iran tensions.

That being said just feel like $RKLB is a tad overvalued right now but long term it’s my favorite pick

@aleabitoreddit No exposure to space/defense stocks like RKLB or KTOS?


Forgot to include $AVAV up there but I'd add that in at $259


Summary: High conviction long RDDT; views today's weakness as market-wide, not stock-specific.

@swingtrader003 @CryptoVandelay High conviction in $RDDT long term. Nothing changed about it other than the market dropping as a whole today

@aleabitoreddit @CryptoVandelay What is your level of conviction for RDDT? Surprised it is acting poorly even in today’s tape?


we'll likely see that full 'trade-deal made' so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs

Summary: Tariff panic is a valuation gift; defense/AI/drone/space names unchanged, markets will ATH once trade deal is announced.

There's a lot of panic about a potential market crash from

$OSS -6.1% to $ONDS -4.85% dropping ON.

But now, Trump is already starting to de-escalate as markets go red.

From the history of Trump's tariffs

We know one thing.

Trump cares too much about the market:

$1.5T in proposed defense spending from

- $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs
to
- Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others.

is still the same.

Nothing in the AI buildout from

- $LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout
or
- $INTC, $SKY role in US domestic hardware

has changed.

We're seeing the largest buildup from drone, critical material stockpiles, AI buildout, Space scale-up, and Made in America supply chains in history.

My opinion is that this volatility is often a "valuation gift" since these are all empty threats. And the leaked messages between the EU/US leaders shows dialogue is taking place.

Trump is just doing his "Maximum Pressure" rhetoric to see what can be negotiated.

And, of course, Trump views the S&P 500 as his real-time approval rating, which is why he's forcing so many rate cuts before midterm elections.

As US markets go red overnight, we're seeing the walk-back happen already.

And we'll likely see that full "trade-deal made" so he can claim he succeeded -> markets hit ATHs.

US Futures are down due to Greenland Tariff news.

Many popular names on EU stock exchanges are now down:

$ONDS (-8.55%) or $RKLB (-7.65%).

Here's how to potentially profit off the situation:

Tier 1: Supply Chains

This is a dispute with NATO Allies. This threatens supply https://t.co/VC94PsnSxF


$1.5T in proposed defense spending from - $AVAV Replicator Switchblade drone programs


Replicator 2 counter-UAV with potential for $AIRO, $ONDS and others


$LITE, $COHR role in $GOOGL and hyperscaler ASIC buildout


calls will benefit from vega expansion. So further out IV looks to be mispriced from my view

Summary: Long calls on memory names (MU, SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix) via 2028 LEAPs; author sees IV mispriced low given memory volatility and steep operating income projections.

My assumption is MMS used garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages.

Korean indexes were range bound for 10-20 years. If it looks at previous years, models typically assume volatility might re-revert to mean in 2 years.

But if we look at MS's steep operating income projections on Samsung/Sk Hynix + inherent volatility with memory like $MU / $SNDK, it looks calls will benefit from vega expsnion. So further out IV looks to be mispriced from my view.

@aleabitoreddit Looking at some 2028 leaps today 🤝


MS's steep operating income projections on Samsung/Sk Hynix


Summary: Long AXTI as the enduring winner in photonics.

@kingcoinmatt $AXTI is always the winner as long as photonics is a thing.

@aleabitoreddit Isn’t AXTI a clear winner here?


Summary: Avoid CRWV (debt-laden casino customer); long NVDA as the house that collects regardless.

Thinking about buying $CRWV on the $NVDA deal?

Here's the way to think about it:

A casino gives you more money, so you could take on more debt with collateral to gamble.

Then all the extra money goes back to the Casino (aka. $NVDA).

That doesn't make Coreweave a good long.

But it does make Nvidia one.

Bet on the house, not the one with $14.7B+ in debt with $1.2B+ in yearly interest payments.


But it does make Nvidia one. Bet on the house


the shorts are going to be in for a brutal ride on $AAOI. It's really elevated at 16%

Summary: High short interest (16%) sets up a brutal squeeze in AAOI; implied bullish.

@CameronBoswell8 Nice! On a side note, the shorts are going to be in for a brutal ride on $AAOI. It’s really elevated at 16% https://t.co/pPmOxjMV6Y


Summary: Bullish AEHR as a diversified toll-booth play across HBM4, SiC wafers, and photonics testing.

@PhotonCap Agreed! I really like $AEHR especially, since they're a toll booth for a lot of things like hbm4, SiC wafers, photonics, etc

@aleabitoreddit Great posting and thanks for sharing it with us

(photonics perspective only)
My view aligns on AEHR and FORM over AAOI because the technical hurdles of 800G and 1.6T production make testing equipment more critical than manufacturing due to rising yield risks. (considering Pam4


Phison does the same with Sandisk with flash (inventory)... Phison happens to be sitting on a massive stockpile of lower-cost NAND from 2024/2025

Summary: Long Phison and Macronix as legacy NAND void plays: Phison on cheap NAND stockpile arbitrage, Macronix on MLC NAND production fill as SNDK/Samsung pivot to enterprise/HBM.

Phison Electronics Taiwan; retrying .TWO OTC market suffix

Interesting beneficiaries post $SNDK earnings that I own:

Phison (TPE: 8299) and Macronix (TPE: 2337).

Similar to Nayna (1,035.96% 1Y) that filled legacy dram void from $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung:

Phison does the same with Sandisk with flash (inventory). And Macronix with MLC NAND (owns wafer fabs).

So another "legacy void" play.

As $SNDK pivots their NAND wafers toward enterprise SSDs to focus on AI, Phison/Macronix looks to fill the vacuum.

Esp. when Sk Hynix and Samsung stop making MLC NAND to focus on HBM, the "Last Man Standing" for legacy storage would be those two.

Phison happens to be sitting on a massive stockpile of lower-cost NAND from 2024/2025.

And Macronix are upping their MLC NAND production to fill the void from the Samsung/SanDisk pivot.

So for Nanya v2 left by Sandisk:

Phison = Massive stockpile price abritrage

Macronix = MLC NAND

$SNDK: "Sandisk will pay Kioxia USD 1.165 billion for manufacturing services and continued availability of supply".

Kioxia and SanDisk together operate one of the world’s largest NAND flash manufacturing sites.

Sandisk's earnings looks like a blowout, but many second order https://t.co/aX5FjQOQls


Macronix with MLC NAND (owns wafer fabs)... Macronix are upping their MLC NAND production to fill the void from the Samsung/SanDisk pivot

Macronix International listed on TWSE as 2337.TW


Summary: AAOI looks extremely cheap at ~6.3-7.8x forward P/E on napkin-math $4.3B revenue / 40% gross margin estimates.

@MarkoTominic $AAOI forward p/e might sit around ~6.3-7.8x from some napkin math if they hit ~$4.3B revenue, 40% gross profit. But of course need some more time to do modeling.

That's why I'm saying it's looks extremely cheap.

@aleabitoreddit Nice forward pe 😂 https://t.co/8vLZM4CUD7


Summary: Bullish IQE on potential re-rating if debt and non-core business drag removed; compares favorably to Landmark's $3.75B MC.

Yes landmark is an amazing name! Basically like $IQE for InP epiwafer for 800/1.6t transcievers but without the balance sheet drag.

Landmark's a $3.75B MC company while $IQE is a $135m company but IQE Is significantly larger production capacity (not as pure play though)

So just felt like if they got rid of all the debt and random business drag, it could re-rate quite a bit.

@aleabitoreddit FYI back when they were looking at a Taiwan IPO of the Taiwan biz, in Nov 24 the house broker estimated at a cyclical low revenue of £40M back then, that float might trade at a £190EV based on a 20% discount to Landmark at the time https://t.co/U3NvXs7STn


Summary: Long AAOI as the only US domestic assembler for 800G/1.6T transceivers; geopolitical manufacturing premium + $4.5B ARR/40% margin projections make long-term value understated.

Yeah $AAOI is the only true domestic player assembling in Sugar Texas for 800G and 1.6T transceivers. $COHR does their stuff in Malaysia/Vietnam, and $LITE uses $FN and others.

There's likely going to be a huge geopolitical premium for American domestic manufacturing on top if they hit their $4.5B ARR/40% margin projections.

That being said:
-> execution risk is always present
-> $250m ATM overhang does impact short term stock pricing.

But long term value creation is understated.

@aleabitoreddit Crazy cheap on a forward basis and given the growth rate, multiple should be that much higher


Summary: Bullish Nebius: META deal expansion from $3B to $27B cumulative signals it is the AI infra provider of choice.

@daniel_koss Yep, but markets are forward looking.

Originally their deal with $META was $3B but it’s 9’xed to $27B cumulative…

This is a huge signal of confidence to Nebius as the infra of choice for AI.

@aleabitoreddit Won't effect their 7-9B ARR target this year though. This deal's capacity only comes up 2027+

Obviously still insanely bullish for 27+


Summary: Implied buying opportunity in UAMY after 17% drop on a Reuters article the company and Energy Dept. both called false.

$UAMY is now down 17% after the Reuter's article.

But this just in:

"Inaccurate and Misleading Reuters Article" - Press Release by UAMY.

"Yesterday's Reuters article that was released to the public, is  completely inaccurate, misleading, and inconsistent with the facts"

"U.S. Antimony maintains binding, long-term relationships and contractual  arrangements with U.S. government agencies that remain fully in effect"

"The Energy Department told Reuters in a statement after the story was  published that the article was "false and relies on unnamed sources that  are either misinformed or deliberately misleading"

I wonder if markets think a inaccurate press release presents a good buying opportunity after a 17% drop.


Summary: Long INTC as highly asymmetric play: White House backing, TSM comp implies ~7x return potential.

Never bet against the White House.

$INTC is probably one of the most asymmetrical longs in the semi space right now. https://t.co/ow1BO48XO4

$INTC is basically the $RKLB to SpaceX and is one of my biggest positions.

Everyone knows it will catch up to TSM as the de-facto semi arm of the US government with Nvidia to Apple backing it.

It’s more of a matter of time.

At a $234B MC ( $TSM is $1.5T), ~7X return just for https://t.co/d7upeoxC1b


Summary: Bullish LASR as a major beneficiary of the Golden Dome energy-directed weapons program, larger in scale than Israel deployment.

@DA_Capital_ Basically. If it works in Israel, $LASR is likely going to be a huge part of energy directed weapons in the Golden Dome, which is much wider in scale

@aleabitoreddit Thesis: goybeam go brrrr


昨日のOpenAIに関するニュースは、絶好のカタリスト（材料）になったと考えています

Summary: Bullish SSYS as humanoid robot frame supplier; OpenAI news seen as a strong catalyst for the robotics ramp-up.

$SSYS は、ボストン・ダイナミクスの「Atlas」やMetaのヒューマノイドなど、あらゆる人型ロボットの**機体フレーム（骨格）**を担っているため、非常に興味深い銘柄です。
今後の展開はロボティクスの普及（ランプアップ）次第であり、本格的な立ち上がりには時間がかかるかもしれませんが、あるいは今まさに始まっている可能性もあります！いずれにせよ、昨日のOpenAIに関するニュースは、絶好の**カタリスト（材料）**になったと考えています。

"私は $SSYS  (9億3200万ドル) のポジションを持ち始めました。

Stratasysは、金属に代わるプラスチックによってロボット工学のボトルネックを解決します。

そして同社は、OpenAIの米国拠点のロボティクス推進サプライヤーの有力候補です（1時間前のブルームバーグ）。 $SSYS  の顧客：


I personally added $ETH ON drop since they're all down a ton

Summary: Bought ETH, SOL, IBIT, GLXY, HOOD, NBIS, and CRCL on the dip; buyer at current levels.

I’m just citing risks for extended selloffs given $ETH if you’re using margin.

Other than that I’m a buyer at these levels, I don’t know what’s going to happen.

I personally added $GLXY on the 9% drop + and $HOOD, $NBIS, $CRCL, $SOL, $ETH and $IBIT ON drop since they’re all down a ton.

@aleabitoreddit bro you're too early on the selloff warning but good call on liquidation cascade


I personally added $SOL ON drop since they're all down a ton


I personally added $IBIT ON drop since they're all down a ton


Summary: Bullish Raspberry Pi: TAM expansion from education into AI agents dramatically increases addressable market.

@dirtyculture OpenAI just bought OpenClaw... Don't quite think it will.

There's going to be a ton of other agentic variants from $META Manus to OpenAI OpenClaw, Picoclaw, and others.

TAM of Raspberry Pi just shot through the roof from education to AI agents.

@aleabitoreddit lol wait people are actually trading on raspberry pi drama now? that's wild!

OpenClaw will dissapear...


Summary: Most bullish on RKLB over a 10-year horizon; willing to trim if overextended above $90 but core long conviction intact.

Yeah sorry for not clarifying the nuance. $RKLB is my most bullish pick with Bitcoin on a 10 year timeframe.

That being said, if it looks overextended to $90+, I’m not afraid to trim and wait for opportunities to buy it if it drops again.

Markets don’t move in a straight line up

@aleabitoreddit Appreciate the reply. You mentioned it along with $RKLB as long-term conviction holds. Hence my confusion...


Summary: Long KOSPI/EWY, SK Hynix, Samsung: energy/helium selloff driven by bad math; 70%+ margins easily absorb cost headwinds, making the dislocation a buy.

The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on

Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either:

Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown.

The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise.

Here's why:

1. Crude Oil:

The a likely scenario if oil prices increase 31% and oil floats to $120/bbl:

In this case, the effect on oil has almost no material impact on SK Hynix and South Korean memory equities.

There are increased energy costs via oil-pegged LNG/JKM prices on Korean equities, mainly for companies surviving on razor-thin 5% to 10% margins.

However, a KEPCO 70% rate hike has little material affect on Samsung/SK Hynix, given memory prices have soared with Samsung doubling NAND prices Q2.

From disclosed financial from, their SK Hynix's annual electricity bill exceeds ₩1 trillion per DIGITIMES (~$750M). Which against FY2025 revenue of ₩97.15 trillion represents roughly 1–2% of revenue.

SK Hynix posted a 58% operating margin in Q4 2025. Against this backdrop, the energy cost shock is small:

 If we model a 50% increase in energy costs:

- Hit to SK Hynix quarterly OP (₩19.17T): ~₩134 billion-~₩146 billion (0.76%)

- Hit to Samsung DS quarterly OP (₩16.4T): ~₩407 billion (2.4%)

Every 50% energy cost spike would shave roughly .7% off SK Hynix margins and 2.4% off Samsung operating margins.

Analysts project SK Hynix margins could reach 70%+ on conventional DRAM in 2026. Energy costs do not meaningfully threaten Korean semiconductor operating margins, even if they were to increase by 100%.

However, this is material to companies with low operating margins of 5-10%

The Losers: Traditional heavy manufacturing (steel, basic chemicals, standard flat glass).
The Winners: Samsung/SK Hynix.

The main risk is second-order effects on supply chains such as increased material costs. This is very hard to model, but in an example where:

an industrial company forces 30% price hikes on raw materials (chemicals, specialty gases), it barely dents the fabs.

Materials are roughly 15-20% of semiconductor COGS, so mathematically, a 30% spike in material costs only shaves an additional ~2% off SK Hynix's operating margins.

A combined 3-4% direct (utilities) and indirect (materials) energy headwind is easily absorbed by an oligopoly printing 70% margins (and increasing prices).

In majority of cases, the costs likely get passed down to hyperscalers through NAND/DRAM price hikes.

In the very worst case scenario of oil prices increasing 3x or 5x.

The main affect on oil increasing hundreds of percent are two factors:

- Global macroeconomic shock, causing global inflation (affecting every single company, from $GOOGL to $COST).

- KRW (South korean Won) USD/KRW exchange rate blowout.

KRW depreciation from sustained high oil is a real second order risk, but historically Korean memory exporters benefit from won weakness on the revenue side. The majority of Samsung/SK Hynix sales are dollar denominated wheras costs are won denominated. So a weaker KRW is actually margin accretive for exporters, which partially offsets the energy cost headwind.

But in an extreme case of oil prices hiking 5x, the only longs in that apocalyptic world are crude oil itself, defense contractors like $LMT / $NOC, domestic US energy producers, and the US Dollar.

This is unlikely to happen.

The financial media and algorithms will likely panic, but , if crude oil goes from $91 to $120 and KEPCO increases energy costs:

The data shows there's little affect on Samsung / SK Hynix in specific, and the main impact are on players with razer-thin operating margins.

2. LNG:

If the Hormuz closed, the majority of South Korea’s LNG imports would be unaffected.

The media has been quoting Hormuz + LNG flows going to China, INdia, SK, and Japan. But if we look at the trade data from South Korea, that’s just a fraction of their total imports.

Majority of imports arrive via Hormuz free routes, eg. Australia (24.6%), US (12.2%), Malaysia, Indonesia (~20%), and Russia/Sakhalin (~4.6%). Then the rest filled in with minor sources from Nigeria, Peru, Brunei, PNG, etc.

The 82% of 2024 important were long term contracts that were oil-indexed, and as we've modeled above, increasing energy costs would hurt opex by 1-2% per 50% increase, but given DRAM/NAND price hikes and operating margins hitting 70%+, this would make a very little dent.

Even if they did, costs would be passed onto hyperscalers.

South Korea learned their lesson from 2022 and diversified sources, and there's little impact on LNG supply disruption. The main concern is oil impacting hiking of LNG.

3. Helium:

SK Hynix statement:  “Long secured diverse supply chains and sufficient inventory" of helium.

"Therefore there is almost no chance that the company will be affected [by helium].

The reality is larger players like $TSM to SK Hynix have diversified their supply chains against foreign events.

Helium is critical to semiconductor supply chains, but the media narrative is sensational. Especially when the largest memory company puts out an assertive statement that there’s no chance the company [SK Hynix] will be affected.

_

But to South Korean equities in Samsung/SK Hynix, fears around Oil/LNG/Helium look disconnected from reality:

The algorithms selling off SK Hynix because of helium and KEPCO rate hikes are acting on bad math. It is fundamentally a supply chain non-issue.

The main threat is oil and energy costs on global macroeconomic shock affecting everything from consumer goods to inflation.

March 3 "Black Tuesday" crash dropped KOSPI dropped 7.2% and SK Hynix fell 11.5% in a single session on exactly these energy security fears as the main catalyst. Of course, forced liquidations from leverage added fuel to the fire.

However, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action is the trade. If margins were actually threatened, the selloff would be justified.

But, the sell-off destroyed more value in one day than DECADES of hiked energy cost increases could have.

The fact that the math doesn't support the fear is precisely why it's Korea is a buy, as markets are selling off on emotion rather than looking at the structural expanding profitability despite increasing oil/energy costs.


algorithms selling off SK Hynix because of helium and KEPCO rate hikes are acting on bad math. It is fundamentally a supply chain non-issue


fears around Oil/LNG/Helium look disconnected from reality


Summary: VPG likely used in high-end/industrial Optimus versions and first thousands of Tesla humanoids, implying durable demand.

It’s a lot more nuanced than that. From my research, for cheap mass production $20k Optimus, it’s possible Tesla is designing two different models.

The mass production models may just be Chinese supply chains. However, the mass-market Chinese sensors haven't quite matched US high cost ultra specialized precision sensing.

$VPG may be used for high-end or high precision Optimus versions, like the Tesla giga factory grade/industrial versions.

So the first thousands of Tesla humanoids may use $VPG. This was just talking about possible mass production/consumer grade versions that likely went to China manufacturers for the lowest cost possible.

This also signals the threat China has on Made in America robotics supply chains.

@aleabitoreddit Does any of them replace $VPG?


Summary: Expects TSEM to double in 5 months from current $21B MC.

@vatsalBN Probably see it doubling again in 5 months

@aleabitoreddit Whats the growth upside do you see for TSEM? Currently at 21B MC.


Summary: Initiated long FIG and added to META via DCA.

@charlieliner Nice! Going from -5% to +7% on some of these names like $LPTH was extremely profitable 6 hour buy.

I ended up initiating $FIG positions myself and DCA $META (even though I told myself I wouldn’t buy software stuff).

Curious to see how that turns out https://t.co/FHRRQrj0Ub

@aleabitoreddit Bought $LPTH, some $OSS and $DPRO, I'm too big in $ONDS now. Bought some $IBRX for a swing too, already +36% during the day. Pretty nice opening so far. Reratings in $ONDS are coming hotttt, 16/17/19/25$ PT


Summary: Long AVAV at $13-14B valuation; triple-digit Y/Y growth off billions in defense contracts makes it cheap vs RKLB.

They’re all running it down Toplane. Hence why $VPG is the hard carry.

Jokes aside $AIRO, $LPTH and $AVAV were all mentioned last month.

$AIRO was up 24.9% since I mentioned it. Cost averaged up, so slightly green/breakeven after the drop. This was my catchup play to $ONDS and nothing about the thesis changed.

$LPTH is down a few percent as a Germanium choke point fix. Nothing too dire materially changed. This was a long term US germanium supply chain pivot away from China into black diamond. Short term prices in 2-3 weeks don’t matter much.

$AVAV is up, but I did talk about it in the $320s. $RKLB is a $45B+ launch company and AVAV is scaling triple digits Y/Y off billions in defense contracts. So at $13-14B I think this is a good long

@aleabitoreddit Hows your $AIRO $AVAV $LPTH


Summary: Holds long RDDT shares; avoids calls due to high IV.

@number1invest_ I’m just long $RDDT shares. IV is really high for Reddit calls so not a fan.


Summary: High conviction long SIVE at ~$400M MC; also bullish ARM and AAOI long term at current levels.

@Jornka329996 Thanks! $SIVE is high conviction for me personally. Even so at these levels around ~$400m MC.

$ARM and $AAOI seems promising long term at these levels too!

I did have two more large cap companies I'm looking at this week.

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit im a massive fan of yours. First time in history retail has the chance to get in first.
Thanks
Really sitting on cash and waiting for your next good play where you have conviction


Summary: Expects index to go up, lifting calls; also bought more leaps expecting IV expansion to ~55%.

@Veri_ta5321 @TheValueist Probably on tail end for the IV trade but calls will likely go up from index going up anyway.

Actually just bought more leaps at 47% IV today since I expect it to expand further to ~55% long term.

@aleabitoreddit @TheValueist I guess it's already late to go in? Family issues got me distracted for some weeks :S


Summary: Disclosed long positions in Sivers Semiconductors and POET Technologies, catalyzed by NVDA GTC and Jabil announcement in silicon photonics/CPO space.

Sivers Semiconductors on Nasdaq Stockholm as SIVE.ST

Was aware of it for awhile from all the $POET shilling back on Reddit as it's their #1 favorite stock over there.

And Sivers got name dropped from time to time.

Just felt like silicon photonics/CPO was quite a ways away so never went long.

But $NVDA GTC was the catalyst it needed, especially with the new Jabil announcement.  So ended up going long.

@aleabitoreddit How do you find these picks?


all the $POET shilling back on Reddit as it's their #1 favorite stock over there


memory is critical to the AI buildout. United States wont let their buildout stall... Just know that directionally, memory is critical to the AI buildout.

Summary: Remained bullish on memory names (EWY/MU/SNDK); Iran conflict supply disruption fears overblown, memory critical to AI buildout long-term.

Just a reminder:

While the entire community was doomposting about memory names.

From $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung), $MU and $SNDK.

during the initial Iran conflict.

Sayin “Kospi and memory names would drop 30-40% because of Helium or LNG.”

I was one of the only few analysts that remained bullish the entire time.

As I actually did the research to back up my claims about little material disruption of LNG, Crude, and Helium.

The Iran conflict is still ongoing, and there’s a lot of unknowns still regarding potential oil spikes:

But fear and sensational headlines drive short term prices. Operating income drives long term prices.

Just know that directionally, memory is critical to the AI buildout.

United Stares wont let their buildout stall, and lose China, in AI - the most transformative technology in history.

Over a Middle East conflict.

The sentiment around KOSPI | $EWY (SK Hynix / Samsung) on

Crude Oil / LNG / Helium either:

Disrupting Supply or Compressing Margins are overblown.

The supply chain disruption and energy cost threats to SK Hynix, Samsung are sensationalized noise.

Here's why:

1. Crude Oil: https://t.co/pbJoQoUWlE


I was one of the only few analysts that remained bullish the entire time


From $EWY (SK Hynix, Samsung), $MU and $SNDK


Summary: Rotated into crypto dip; long BTC via IBIT, SOL via SOLZ, LTC via LTCC, and COIN at current levels, hoping to have timed the bottom.

I ended up rotating a lot of my positions into the falling knife on crypto today.

Just felt like everything has recent from $COIN to $SOL has crashed a bit much

- Bitcoin $82.9k via IBIT ($46.9)
- Solana ($114.8) via $SOLZ
- Litecoin ($64.2) via $LTCC
- $COIN ($197)

Hope I timed the bottom correctly


industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'


Summary: Loaded up on both INTC and META; watching how they perform over the coming weeks.

@Neomeldir Nice! I personally loaded up on $INTC and $META, curious to see how those two do in the upcoming weeks.

@aleabitoreddit Been piling up on $META, let’s hope Zuck does us good tomorrow.


This one is an incredible long at $16B as they're foundational for: $MU and Samsung memory substrates, $NVDA Rubin/Blackwell, TSMC for CoWoS process

Summary: Long Unimicron as a high-conviction AI supply-chain choke point across HBM4, CoWoS, glass core substrates, and hyperscaler ASICs through 2026-2028.

Unimicron Technology listed on TWSE as 3037.TW

I've hold positions in the $MU that markets sleep on:

Unimicron.

This one is an incredible long at $16B as they're foundational for:

- $MU and Samsung memory substrates
- $NVDA Rubin/Blackwell
- TSMC for CoWoS process
- Apple (iPhones and M-series)
- Google TPUs
- AMZN/Hyperscaler ASICs
- Intel for ABF substrates
- Amkor that buys Unimicron substrates
- and all the world's semis.

Unimicron is one of the most significant "choke points" in the global AI supply chain as they provide the future:

- IC Substrates for HBM4 / Memory (DRAM/NAND) + GPUs/CPUs
- The "S" (substrate) in TSM CoWoS
- Glass Core Substrates for CoPoS

for 2026-2028

and all the foundational parts for customer devices like IPhones and semiconductors used today.

They're in the center of the memory bottleneck, CoWoS bottleneck, and interconnects bottleneck for Hyperscaler ASiCs.

As well as the future cycles with Glass Core substrates and more.

AI revolves around the other Micron and you get exposure to most popular bottlenecks like HBM today and tomorrow.

Memory Supercycle Supply Chain TLDR:

US Sleeper HBM4/Memory alpha picks that benefit from $MU and SK/Samsung:

$VECO ($2B) -Laser annealing
$PLAB ($2.1B) - Lithography photomask
$ADEA ($2.18B) - Hybrid bonding
$ACLS ($2.9B) - Ion implantation
$FORM ($6.43B) - HBM wafer testing https://t.co/dYDJ5scXEM


Summary: Author prefers NVDA, META, TSM as true safety plays via growth vs. dividend stagnation; implicitly bearish on UNH/PYPL/FISV.

$UNH has just crashed -19.48% to $283.31.

Dividend investors and Buffet copytraders are not having a fun time this year.

Others from

$PYPL are down -37.8% 1Y with $FISV down -72% 1Y.

This is a brutal wake-up call that by chasing a ~2.85% "dividends" with UNH or value investing, a single-day drop of 20% (like today) effectively wipes 6.6 years of waiting.

Safety isn't found in stagnation and dividends.

It's found in the most obvious growth companies like $NVDA, $META, or $TSM.


$1M order in 1 month is actually really bullish for $VPG if that's a follow-on order

Summary: Bullish VPG: $1M follow-on humanoid order in one month equals ~1/3 of prior total order flow, signaling accelerating demand.

@savelikameisha Thanks, I fell asleep during the call lol. $1M order in 1 month is actually really bullish for $VPG if that’s a follow-on order.

Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until Oct and they got 1/3rd that volume in 1 month basically

@aleabitoreddit ''Received orders of $0.8 million related to humanoid projects in 4Q25, which included a prototype order from a third humanoid developer customer. Total humanoid orders for 2025 were $4 million, which are expected to increase in 2026. Received a follow-on order of $1 million in


Summary: Long VPG as a held position tied to humanoid robotics ramp, already entered by institutions including Citron.

I normally don’t reply to disingenuous leading questions like this but I’m posting information synthesis on robotic supply chain stocks linked to Tesla Optimus.

Unfortunately I try and discover alpha to find the next $30->$453 $SNDK at the start rather than bull posting the same known $SOFI, $ASTS, $TSLA finx theme for confirmation bias.

And people really seem to dislike when the information turns out to be directionally right and companies like $OSS get re-rated 60%+. If it wasn’t, the company would crash the next day instead of constantly going up like $LPTH

Nobody knows how markets price in the information, it could be right or wrong. And I have no control what HFT algorithms do that scan my posts. That being said $VPG ended the day flat.

This is a long position tethered to humanoid ramp that several institution like Citron already entered last year. It’s just under the radar now considering the inflection point for robotics.

@aleabitoreddit Pumping low vol companies only ?


Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. I personally think it's a 3x from here so I went long.

Summary: Long Soitec (3x target) on CPO monopoly/depressed valuation; also bullish TSEM and AXTI as undiscovered CPO plays ahead of NVDA GTC catalyst.

Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure.

$NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture.

~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations)

Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status)

Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1.

I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet)

This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week.

I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.


I don't think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM


most probably haven't even heard of these names like $AXTI yet


Summary: Selloff driven by perception not policy; if new Fed chair aligns with Trump's pro-liquidity stance, current crash could be a major buying opportunity across stocks, Bitcoin, and silver.

Silver is crashing. Bitcoin is crashing. Stocks from $CRDO to $HOOD are crashing.

Happened to be around the same time as 2021 and chart looks basically the same.

The million dollar question, is it the same this time?

Structurally, yes.

It looks eerily similar with markets frontrunning a liquidity drain back in 2021.

The trigger last time was Quantitative Tightening after Powell stated the Fed would accelerate "Tapering" and QT for inflation to come down. And then they began QT faster than anyone imagined in Jan 2022.

This year, there's Midterms. Trump wants lower rates and higher liquidity to ensure a win in November. And, most of all, he cares deeply about the stock market.

And just 2 months ago in December 2025, Powell gave a stealth QE announcement to resume purchasing assets.

This time, it looks like optics and a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, the market operates off Vietnam flashbacks and PTSD, mainly given the look of the new Fed chair.

If the new Fed chair operates in line with Trump's policies (which one might expect), this could be one of the biggest opportunities since April.

This time, markets are selling off because of "perception" rather than any formal policy change.

History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme.


Summary: Net bearish near-term on AAOI: risk of dilution overhang if $250M ATM proceeds, echoing POET pattern.

It’s usually better to just hold stocks long term and forget about it. As you never know if there’s going to be a surprise hyperscaler deal the next day.

However, this is net bearish near term with a PTSD overhang that $AAOI pulls a $POET and keeps diluting if the new $250m atm is successful.

But if you bought at $28, you wouldn’t need to care about to short term -20% to 20% day to day changes happening around $100

@aleabitoreddit Damn should've taken some profit. Was up quite a lot earlier this week.  I got greedy


Summary: Bearish IREN: $6B ATM overhang creates structural selling pressure that will weigh against any rally.

@Agrippa_Inv We'll see how this bodes for $IREN. Cheering on the holders, but structurally the $6B ATM works against them in any rally.

Which is why it's probably better to hold other DC stocks that don't have that large overhang and likely selling pressure of half the MC.

@aleabitoreddit This will age like milk 😂

Already bookmarked & screenshotted (in case you delete). Going to be fun re-visiting this one…


Summary: Bullish SNDK: AI-driven hardware hoarding likely to triple revenue estimates vs analyst no-growth projections.

There's a hilarious hardware hoarding cycle right now like $SNDK SSDs.

Everyone is buying this, but not the stock (hasn't moved at all).

Analysts were projecting no growth, but hoarding from AI demand likely triples revenue estimates.

Wondering if anyone can guess?


$AVAV secured $1.4B+ in contracts in the past 4 months. This is a contract renegotiation (possibly better long term). Completely misunderstood

Summary: Bullish AVAV: $1.4B+ in recent contracts, FFP contract shift locks in volume pricing, valuation concern is misunderstood.

@victor_privin $AVAV secured $1.4B+ in contracts in the past 4 months.

This is a contract renegotiation (possibly better long term).

OTA agreements a lot of times is for prototyping and R&D. Moving to an FFP contract = locking in price for volume.

Completely misunderstood

@aleabitoreddit What’s the justification for a $17B market cap? Just because it makes drones?
If it can’t secure a $175M contract, why should it trade at 12× sales? Pretty boring.


Nothing's changed about $XLU, especially 2-3 weeks in. It's a boring 2 year trade on power grid modernization, ai inference, and rate cuts.

Summary: Still long XLU via LEAP calls; 2-year thesis on power grid modernization, AI inference, and rate cuts unchanged.

@RoshiPosts Nothing’s changed about $XLU, especially 2-3 weeks in. It’s a boring 2 year trade on power grid modernization, ai inference, and rate cuts.

@aleabitoreddit Has your thesis changed on those XLU leap calls or are they still good print potential?


took positions into $AEVA which is 4D LiDAR. Looks like the clearest functional midstream bottleneck exposure to the trend, from my research? ... Disclosure: I have long shares only of $AEVA, as speculative exposure to 4D AI + World Models for physical AI.

Summary: Long AEVA as speculative play on 4D LiDAR / World Models bottleneck for physical AI and humanoids.

Speaking of other bottlenecks like $AXTI.

I’ve been looking into 4D AI.

Convos with industry insiders leads me to believe it’s an upcoming trend eg. “World Models” for physical AI and humanoids post $NVDA Jensen’s conference.

So took positions into $AEVA which is 4D LiDAR.

Looks like the clearest functional midstream bottleneck exposure to the trend, from my research?

Unless someone has others they’d like to mention.

There’s stuff like $AMBA, $U (yes the games software), $TER, and $OUST but they’re larger companies without the clearest exposure.

That being said it’s still a new space so still doing research. Also, fundamentals are shaky, so this is more of a venture bet for the industry growth.

Disclosure: I have long shares only of $AEVA, as speculative exposure to 4D AI + World Models for physical AI.

$AXTI up 63.29% in 1 week to new yearly highs.

What a crazy photonics rally off $GOOGL earnings.

Markets are finally pricing in upstream bottlenecks. https://t.co/YdEOofJWN8


Summary: Bullish on crypto complex and related equities after reset from highs; institutions buying BTC post-liquidation, expects wave back up.

I've been in the memory/AI trade like $MU, $SNDK. But opportunities like this don't come often.

Every crypto name has been reset:

Bitcoin - $70K from $125k
Ethereum - $2.05K from $4k
Solana - $88 from $233
$COIN $162 from $415
$CRCL $56 from $240
$GLXY $19 from $40
$ETOR $26 from $68
$MSTR  $132 from $434

If people think Bitcoin is going back to $30K idk what to tell you, every institution I've seen personally is buying now after the liquidation wipeout.

Easy to wait out volatility and ride the wave back up.


Summary: LASR singled out as the only pure-play publicly traded name in energy directed weapons.

@geokoutalidis Yep great shout! There's other large players out there, like $DRS or $RTX and $ESLT. But nothing publicly traded really has pure play exposure to energy directed weapons aside from $LASR AFAIK.

@aleabitoreddit $ESLT is a large player with direct exposure


Summary: Still long XLU as a directional play on US power/grid over the next two years, though current IV at 21-23% is elevated vs ideal 14-16%.

@Investmnt_Eagle I still think so! Ideal would be 14-16% IV not the elevated strikes you're looking at ~21-23% IV.

Point was $XLU was a directional long on US power/grid over the next two years (that benefits from low IV).

@aleabitoreddit Thanks! Helped me a lot. You still think XLU is a valuable trade with calls? Since you posted they exploded in price. Current IV is priced around 21-23%


For $VPG that's actually really promising it's $1m for January 2026 and that's its follow up (maybe $500/humanoid, so 2K units) Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until October and they got 1/3.6th their volume in one month

Summary: Bullish VPG: $1M single-month order from Optimus ramp equals ~28% of prior total order flow, with more volume expected as Optimus scales.

For $VPG that’s actually really promising it’s $1m for January 2026 and that’s its follow up (maybe $500/humanoid, so 2K units)

Their entire order flow was $3.6M up until October and they got 1/3.6th their volume in one month from your numbers

I’d be more curious about future projections rather than previous ones since now we know Optimus is ramping up later in the year.

@aleabitoreddit They did mention this which sounds promising but pretty small for time being. Probably takes some time. Thoughts? https://t.co/Dpo5bVn9W3


Yes I'm buying at these levels and increasing my exposure as much as possible for $AAOI. If they hit their $4.3B ARR 2027 mid-year target. It's undervalued, even factoring in short term ATMs.

Summary: Actively buying and increasing AAOI exposure; undervalued on path to $4.3B ARR by mid-2027, with upside from potential price hikes.

Yes I'm buying at these levels and increasing my exposure as much as possible for $AAOI.

If they hit their $4.3B ARR* (ARR should be added to post) 2027 mid-year target. It's undervalued, even factoring in short term ATMs.

This is not factoring in price hikes either, which is a likely scenario is hyperscalers are trying to build for allocation.

@aleabitoreddit Do you even buy at these levels though? Or is theere some retracement to be had before an entry?


$LPTH Is existentially critical to the Pentagon + US National Security right now... Lightpath it's the main way around the Germanium chokepoint for Western countries at a small $670M MC.

Summary: Long LPTH as sole-source supplier of Black Diamond germanium replacement for US defense; no domestic alternative until 2030, supply shock from China export ban drives multi-year demand.

$LPTH isn't just important.

Lighpath is a critical point of failure for the US Dpt of War.

"Germanium" is the AI's InP for Lockheed Stinger Missiles and Anduril Ghost / $ONDS Drones.

Germanium's price tripled (~$4,150/kg+ in 2025/26).

There is a demand shock since US has 0:

The US has zero (Yes Korea Zinc in TN, but not until 2030).

US mines germanium ore (Red Dog mine in Alaska), but we do not have the industrial capacity to refine it into metal at scale.

60-70% of refined Germanium comes from China and the rest elsewhere like Canada (Teck), Belgium (Umicore), and Russia (also banned).

And China banned exports to US military programs.

There is effectively no new domestic capacity coming online between now (Jan 2026) and 2029/2030.

The Demand Shock:

At the exact moment supply was cut, demand exploded from three sectors:

- AI Data Centers: Germanium is essential for high-speed fiber optic cables.

- Space: It is the primary material for satellite solar cells (Starlink, etc.).

- Defense (The Big One): Every thermal Andruil drone, night vision goggle, and missile seeker head traditionally uses a Germanium lens.

$LPTH Is existentially critical to the Pentagon + US National Security right now.  You might think other companies can just make "germanium-free" glass, but it's hard.

The specific material Lightpath uses called Black Diamond, was invented by the US Naval Research Lab.  Lightpath holds the exclusive license to commercialize BLack Diamond.

If Lockheed or Raytheon wants to build a missile seeker that uses this specific, military-grade germanium replacement, they legally have to buy it from Lightpath.

There is no second source.

$LPTH is the Sole Source supplier of many advanced weapons.

Example 1) Allies are stockpiling Short Range Interceptor, eg. Stinger Missiles. Allies need to build thousands more now, but we can't get the Chinese germanium to build the seekers.

Lightpath is the "sole source" supplier for the optical assembly for companies like Lockheed.

Example 2) Drone companies build "Blue UAS" (government-approved drones). To stay off the blacklist, they must remove Chinese parts.

Companies like $ONDS or $UMAC have likely  sole-sourced their thermal camera supply to Lightpath to not use Chinese supply chains in their drone components.

2026 (Now): China bans exports. US stockpiles are critically low.

2030 (Earliest): The new "Super Smelter" in Tennessee (Korea Zinc deal) comes online to refine germanium domestically.

The Gap: For the next 4 years, the US has no domestic metal.

This situation seems absurd, but since the US closed most of its Zinc smelters, so we accidentally closed our Germanium supply with them. And for 30 years, it was cheaper to ship the ore to China/Canada than to deal with EPA regulations to refine it here.

The US military is currently in a position where it has the raw ore in Alaska but has to ask Canada or wait for a Korean company (in 2030) to turn it into a missile seeker.

People think $LPTH some cheap penny stock. But it's actually central to US national security now.

Lightpath it's the main way around the Germanium chokepoint for Western countries at a small $670M MC.

I've initiated positions in $LPTH ($621M).

Lightpath is incredible.

Every modern thermal weapon (Missiles, Drones) requires Germanium glass, which China owns (70%)

LPTH is the only US alternative with: Black Diamond

Users?

- $ONDS
- L3Harris
- Lockheed
- Andruil (likely)
- https://t.co/XdzME21cvo


Summary: Endorses bullish VPG thesis; robotics ramp seen as major opportunity.

@ThematicTrader Great thesis on $VPG! Fully agree, ramp up on robotics presents an incredibly opportunity

Vishay Precision Group $VPG is a silent monster in the making for the humanoid robotics era. One of the most important developments for robotics lies in high-precision tactile sensing. VPG dominates this niche through its proprietary foil technology, which provides the human-like


$ALAB selloff is a good buying opportunity... good long here

Summary: Buyable dip post-earnings selloff; CFO departure immaterial, gross margin compression optically distorted by Amazon deal — algorithmic overreaction.

$ALAB selloff is a good buying opportunity. Did a little more research into earnings

- CFO leaving is immaterial (he's still there though)
- gross margin compression is just optics, the Amazon deal artificially compressed it by 2% or so.

prob sold off algorithmically, missed the nuance. good long here

@aleabitoreddit ALAB cooked me so bad on earnings 😭


Summary: Long Mag7/META/GOOGL on strong earnings; long RDDT on growth; BTC/ETH not recovering signals near-term liquidity risk; broader recovery expected into midterms.

IMO Mag7 earnings are too strong for a full-blown correction. $META projecting guided ~30% revenue growth. $GOOGL's enormous $180B capex spend is funded by it's $132B+ operating income from 2025.

All those funds trickle down into AI, memory, semis and puts a floor on them (eg. memory is a huge percentage of BOM for AI clusters).

Even mid cap in other segments like $RDDT, is close to ~26-30 forward P/E estimates after 35% of revenue as net income -> 70% Y/Y revenue growth and 50%+ forward.

Growth still looks sustainable right now, and other segments like software are heavily discounted.

But the fact Bitcoin/Ethereum is not recovering yet is usually the best canary in the coal mine for short term liquidity issues. I'd expect a broader recovery going forward to midterms.

@aleabitoreddit And most are predicting 15-20% S&P crash. Completely disconnected to the sell off many are experiencing for months.


$GOOGL's enormous $180B capex spend is funded by it's $132B+ operating income from 2025


$RDDT, is close to ~26-30 forward P/E estimates after 35% of revenue as net income -> 70% Y/Y revenue growth and 50%+ forward


the fact Bitcoin/Ethereum is not recovering yet is usually the best canary in the coal mine for short term liquidity issues


Bitcoin/Ethereum is not recovering yet is usually the best canary in the coal mine for short term liquidity issues


Summary: Bullish INTC at current price; White House backing + Mag7/government support makes it a compelling buy.

@Crypto_fox7 Yep. Not every day do you get a company backstopped by the White House like $INTC.

Both the government and all the Mag7 companies like $NVDA and $APPL are just pushing for Intel to succeed.

@aleabitoreddit mmmh even at this price ?


Summary: Top high-conviction buys: TSEM, SIVE, SOI on silicon photonics/CPO theme; RDDT and AAOI as diversifiers on current prices/transceiver cycle.

@moderndayvenom I’d send it into silicon photonics/CPO since we know it’s coming from OFC and $NVDA GTC.

Names like $TSEM, $SIVE, $SOI were my favorite three higher conviction ones.

Then I’d diversify a bit, maybe $RDDT as a long as of today’s prices. And $AAOI for current transceiver cycles.

@aleabitoreddit Unreal, no words left! If u were to build ur port from scratch TODAY, what would be ur top 5 HIGH CONVICTION picks at this price for solid returns?


Summary: Prefers SIVE as asymmetric long on fabless model and multiple customers; IQE also a potential long on Taiwan sale catalyst and pure-play pivot, though debt-laden.

I personally don’t see much downside risk in the long run aside from dilution since $SIVE is the light for many customers like $POET, $JBL, Ayar, O-Net, and others rather than one.

And compared to $IQE they’re fabless through win semi so capex is more lightweight.

$IQE on the other hand has a lot of debt, but a huge amount of assets, and requires restructuring to be strongly rerated.

Risk profiles are extremely different, $SIVE definitely more assymetrical.

$IQE can possibly 2.5x in a day based on a successful Taiwan sale, and over the long run like Landmark if they become more pure play inp epiwafer. But of course lot of debt overhang

But I don’t put all my eggs in one basket and like to pick multiple horses that can win the race

@aleabitoreddit How do you see this comparatively from a risk perspective to names of similar size, appreciating they operate different business models eg IQE. Supporter of your work and think the perspectives you share trump a lot of paid material trying to take your money not support you.


Summary: Sees AXTI reaching $20B market cap within 1–2 years.

@DeFi_AdamZ would not be surprised if $AXTI traded at $20B in a year or two

@aleabitoreddit What’s your target price for $AXTI ?👀


Summary: Buying SNDK into the drop, cost-averaging over two weeks; sees it as a fundamentals-driven long despite short-term supply overhang.

Yep my friend @RJCcapital did mention that as an explanation for short term weakness.

That being said $SNDK looks like a possible $NVDA for me at $79B and fundamentals matter more to me than short term supply events.

So I'm buying into the drop but cost averaging over the next two weeks.

@aleabitoreddit Someone said that the pull back was because Western Digital might sell more $SNDK shares to pay off debts soon.