Summary: Long AAOI: even partial execution on targets warrants a large re-rating; author is convinced by the bull case.

The base case scenario is they become more of a US Innolight/Eoptolink (which are still valued at $50B+) if they don't manage to scale up laser capacity and buy from $COHR.

If they even hit 60-70% of their targets should re-rate a ton anyway in my opinion.

So these base cases convinced me.

@aleabitoreddit How would you rate your confidence 1-10 on if $aaoi can execute


Summary: XLU is a multi-year long thesis on rate cuts, grid modernization, and AI inference demand; requires patience.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

@bilbooo__ Yeah $XLU is a 2 year long waiting for rate cut, grid modernization, and inference to take off.

If something is a multi-year long... Might require you to wait more than 2 weeks.

@aleabitoreddit I went $xlu instead 😭. This thing moves too slowly.


Summary: Long JETS as a way to play an Iran war resolution; down 15% YTD, low IV ~28-30, moves inverse to oil.

@orrdavid Long $JETS and airliner ETFs for lower IV over individual names.

Down 15% YTD, very low IV ~28-30 2028, moves inverse to oil as you’ve mentioned.

Besides short oil, what's another way to bet on the Iranian war ending with a great result within 3 weeks?

Something obvious, not convoluted.

Also, anything with options?


I extremely disagree with analysts posts saying "it's priced in" and telling retail profits at $250M. After $SIVE confirmed $JBL confirmed they were using them for their upcoming transceivers. After $SIVE are in O-Net supply chains. institutions are trying to acquire positions off retail hands

Summary: Bullish Sivers: analyst 'priced in' calls are wrong; JBL and O-Net adoption confirms demand, and institutions are accumulating from retail.

Sivers Semiconductors on Nasdaq Stockholm as SIVE.ST

Yeah. I extremely disagree with analysts posts saying "it's priced in" and telling retail profits at $250M.

-> After $SIVE confirmed $JBL confirmed they were using them for their upcoming transceivers.

-> After $SIVE are in O-Net supply chains.

Then saying it's "Sentiment Driven" after one of the largest T1 optical suppliers now is a confirmed Sivers buyer.

Again, this is currently majority retail owned, so it's my opinion institutions are trying to acquire positions off retail hands.

@aleabitoreddit Appreciate you

I hope people don't get shook out I think you find the axti of this year


Summary: Bullish LPTH on ~$100M backlog and impending supply chain shift from foreign germanium to Black Diamond.

@Ren_aramb Yeah $LPTH is backlogged with ~$100m. Demand is there, looks like a waiting game for companies to switch over to black diamond from foreign owned germanium supply chains https://t.co/sgVpFZFwMa

@aleabitoreddit $LPTH had a glorious day +20%, it’s been a while


Summary: Holding XLU long despite Iran war disruption to original thesis; still bullish on grid modernization and hyperscaler capex flowing into power.

War in Iran threw a knife into the original $XLU thesis since a large part of it hinged on rate cuts (which were widely expected to be ~3 for 2026).

Alongside blowing up parts of the energy trade.

I don't know what happens next, but I'm personally holding. Could always wait for a better energy but regardless:

I do expect America to modernize the grid and have hyperscaler capex flowing down into power.

@aleabitoreddit thoughts on the XLU leaps you posted? maybe not the best time and should exit and look for a different entry?


the $500M buyback is a red flag to me instead of a positive thing to me. But issuing billions in SBC to "Talent" and executives -> going into further debt (especially the $500M buyback) -> paying additional debt interest blows that model apart.

Summary: Bearish SNAP: SBC issuance, debt-funded buyback, and interest costs destroy the FCF model; red flag on capital allocation.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

I modeled $SNAP GCP opex cuts and memory monetization into FCF and it looked undervalued moving forward with the Perplexity deal.

But issuing billions in SBC to "Talent" and executives -> going into further debt (especially the $500M buyback) -> paying additional debt interest blows that model apart.

This is all in the hands of Evan to make that change if he lowers SBC notably. But the $500M buyback is a red flag to me instead of a positive thing to me.

@aleabitoreddit You had it at the top of your strong buy list at the end of Jan. I see you reconsidered due to the SBC stuff.

Worth pointing out that they posted their first profitable quarter and with digital storage going from cap expense to rev, perhaps more to come. Time shall tell.


Summary: Bearish IREN on endless dilution risk unless it pivots to pure colo; prefers NBIS management.

Not a fan of $IREN as a long unless they stop doing GPU offerings and pivot to do pure colo. investors now will be met with endless dilution to monetize their 3GW capacity.

That being said it does carry higher potential returns but I personally trust in $NBIS management more.

I’ve had a lot of debates in the past between $NBIS vs $IREN but time will tell whose right

@aleabitoreddit I’d be very curious to hear any updated opinions on $iren.

Personally owned them over $nbis as at least in the short term the secured power I think we’ll go a long way where $nbis is fully contracted out and to get power online will take time.

Ie more short-term catalysts for


I personally trust in $NBIS management more


Summary: Long AEHR: agrees it has meaningful scaling potential over the next few years tied to inference demand.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Appreciate it! I kept seeing a questions pop up around $AEHR.   Especially because of jargon like "Fox-XP" or "silicon carbide and gallium nitride power semiconductors".

Felt like majority of X would have a hard time, so wanted to make it more digestible for readers. Agreed that it has potential for scale over the few years.

@aleabitoreddit Also own $AEHR and love the simple breakdown. It's one of the stocks I found when I looked for businesses that would scale insanely well with inference demand going vertical.


Summary: Stay long photonics names (TSEM, AAOI, COHR, LITE) on sold-out capacity and AI buildout; macro noise is a distraction.

$TSEM and the Photonics Supercycle…

Doesn’t like they’re bothered with Iran or Silver and Gold crashing?

Almost every name from $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE, to $LITE is green.

This is what happens when capacity is sold out for the next few years or it’s in the center of scaling the AI buildout.

Better to stay long rather than get distracted by macro.


Almost every name from $AAOI, $COHR, $SIVE, to $LITE is green


I see zero compelling case to hold $IREN. The risk reward is just not there anymore.

Summary: Avoid IREN on ~50% dilution risk/reward; favors CIFR (colo/hyperscaler model) and NBIS (diversification, derisked capex) as superior longs.

I see zero compelling case to hold $IREN.

Especially given the new $6B share dilution at a $12.8B marketcap.

People will likely see that marketcap inflate to $20-$25B.

But the value of their shares decrease over time.

The risk reward is just not there anymore.

Companies like $CIFR offer much more asymmetrical upside given their colo model for $AMZN and $GOOGL through Fluidstack.

And companies like $NBIS offer much better diversification (robotaxis, clickhouse), derisked execution, and are well supported for capex.

With $IREN, there’s no way to justify being diluted close to half the market cap and cheering that on.

Even with a new hyperscaler deal there’s risk reward is just not there.

I was bullish $IREN last year but sold it. As holders went from:

-> 3GW capacity, asset lite, Colo model (was a fan of this)

-> Buying GPUs for $MSFT and cheering on execution risks from the pivot (not a fan)

Into

-> Cheering on $6B of new share dilution + getting sold on the open market against their positions. (AMC bagholder territory)

If you’re trying hard to justify why new ~50% dilution is a good thing sold against your positions and trusting in management:

Sorry to tell you, that you’re now in the $AMC equivalent club for datacenters.

There are much better longs out there.


Companies like $CIFR offer much more asymmetrical upside given their colo model for $AMZN and $GOOGL through Fluidstack.


companies like $NBIS offer much better diversification (robotaxis, clickhouse), derisked execution, and are well supported for capex.


Summary: CXMT/YMTC threat is overblown for MU/Hynix (minimal China exposure, shifted to HBM); real impact falls on legacy players Nanya and Winbond.

There's a lot of disinformation around $MU, SK Hynix, and Memory after the new Nikkei Asia piece.

Expected this to happen, since this is so badly written and misleading when the memory industry is so nuanced.

This has close to 0 material impact on Micron and Sk Hynix.

CXMT and YMTC are blacklisted by US government and supply chains outside of China.

This is domestic only and is written as a sensational hit piece.

eg. "China’s two major memory manufacturers view the global supply shortage as an opportunity..."

YMTC is fully banned (US Entity List) - DoD Section 1260H list (Chinese Military Companies)

CXMT - DoD Section 1260H list. Military-linked list. The U.S. Commerce Department is likely to slap more export controls on this firm.

The biggest impact it would have is on "legacy fill in the void" type companies like Nanya + Winbond, which should have been the focus.

But the article and people who want a dip-buying opportunity decided to clickbait/spread disinformation by throwing in Micron and others for views.

Naunce is Micron, Sk Hynix, and Samsung have largely  hollowed out their demand from China (eg. ~10% micron, ~15-18% Sk hynix), and shifted dram capacity to hbm3e and hbm4.

Only Samsung is slightly affected given their share with mobile/consumer devices.

There is no effect on the hyperscaler AI memory trade.


The biggest impact it would have is on 'legacy fill in the void' type companies like Nanya + Winbond

Nanya Technology listed on TWSE as 2408.TW


Winbond Electronics listed on TWSE as 2344.TW


just saw this as an attractive opportunity, I'll probably cost avg one more time if it drops another few percent

Summary: Cost-averaging into SOL bounce from $100-120 range; planning heavy adds to MSTR and CRCL on further weakness.

@hedgedwolf Lost count of how many times I’ve seen stuff like $SOL bounce from $100-120 range to $165-$185.

Anyway just saw this as an attractive opportunity, I’ll probably cost avg one more time if it drops another few percent.

I’ll probably heavy add $CRCL and $MSTR to the list as well

@aleabitoreddit Same thoughts think we are rounding the bottom out especially with all this FUD on my timeline on BTC and Microstrategy


I'll probably heavy add $CRCL and $MSTR to the list as well


Summary: All three Neocloud names bullish: GPU depreciation fears eased, hyperscaler capex rising, and demand surging simultaneously.

Jensen Huang on CNBC: "GPUs sold six years ago are increasing in price."

GPU depreciation was the largest concern for $NBIS, $IREN, and $CRWV.

But now, they have:

- Tailwinds from increased capex spend across hyperscalers
- Increased demand across the board
- GPU depreciation fears eased.

Every tailwind just hit at once for Neoclouds.

According to 3Fourteen Research: GPU availability across major cloud services have dropped immensely in Feb.

This comes as $META, $AMZN, $GOOGL have increased infrastructure capex spend immensely.

The major victors, Neoclouds:

$IREN, $NBIS, and $CRWV are the three with AI https://t.co/Oc8kq9sTSk


just flipped bullish when Retail on X, Regards on WallStreetbets, Jim Cramer are now all doomposting indexes

Summary: Contrarian flip to long equities / short oil as retail, WSB, and Cramer pile into doomposting indexes and oil $150-200 calls.

Am I the only one that just flipped bullish when:

- Retail on X
- Regards on WallStreetbets
- Jim Cramer

Are now all doomposting indexes and are:

Either are long crude oil contracts or think oil is going to $150-$200? https://t.co/GoUXV3UM2q


either are long crude oil contracts or think oil is going to $150-$200


Summary: Bullish SK Hynix on outstanding fundamentals and balance sheet strength overriding macro concerns.

FCF numbers are way too strong for memory. Single digit forward p/e across the board.

I’d expect a very short term pullback (which is healthy) for some the names into ATHs is my guess.

There are some individual companies where fundamentals like Sk Hynix are just too ridiculous. Balance sheet > macro.

@aleabitoreddit Thanks for sharing your insight. I guess it is time for a mild pullback for the memory sector?


Summary: Bullish AEVA as an overlooked play on humanoid robots, specifically Boston Dynamics Atlas supply chains.

@JuhongH $SIVE -> $AEVA is already well known.

People often cite $AEVA for more industrial stuff like trucking and maybe defense.

But I like it for humanoids in specific. And I don't think anyone mapped $SIVE to possible Boston Dynamics Atlas supply chains at all yet.

@aleabitoreddit What drove you the most for the possibility of SIVE -> AEVA mapping?


Summary: GOOGL rejecting CPO is bullish for pluggable optics ecosystem; LITE, AAOI, FN, Innolight are large winners; IQE, AXTI secondary/tertiary; Soitec is downgraded.

$GOOGL rejecting CPO is a massive structural win for the entire pluggable optics ecosystem.

Most people missed this in the Needham analyst note on the $LITE $850 PT upgrade today:

Large beneficiaries: $AAOI, $FN, Innolight, transceiver companies.

Secondary beneficiaries (epiwafers): $IQE, Landmark

Third Order Beneficiaries (substrate): $AXTI, Sumitomo

Downgrade (CPO): Soitec

Quote:  "LITE sees an unexpected bonus that its primary transceiver module customer (Google) currently has no plans to adopt CPO in its TPU architecture from what we have seen."


Secondary beneficiaries (epiwafers): $IQE


Third Order Beneficiaries (substrate): $AXTI


Soitec listed on Euronext Paris as SOI.PA


Summary: Conditionally bullish IQE: if Taiwan sale closes and capacity repurposed for AI transceivers, stock could be significantly rerated upward.

No, the risks around the debt are real. Their current gross debt is ~£45M. Plus, if $IQE repurposes their epiwafer capacity towards transceivers for the AI trade, it will take even more capital to refactor the hardware.

Hence why the Taiwan sale is critical, if it falls through, there will likely be more dilution to shareholders to cover short term costs.

But if it goes through and they're able to repurpose successfully, could be rerated like landmark.

@aleabitoreddit Are the risks around their debt over inflated? I am not saying it is not a risk but worst case a large cash raise would get soaked up quickly.


Summary: Bullish on BE as a major beneficiary of GW-scale DC power demand from 2026+; personally positioned via XLU rather than individual names.

Energy/Power/Grid sector will be a massive theme in 2026 onward as inference/training require GW scale DCs.

$BE is a large beneficary and likely at the center of it. I personally ended up going with the $XLU sector as a whole rather than picking individual names (mainly because i don’t personally have enough domain knowledge in energy names)

@aleabitoreddit what do you think of $BE ? Bloom energy


I personally ended up going with the $XLU sector as a whole


cash + inventory makes up majority of its MC not including other assets like IP. They're fabless semi, $80m revenue, high gross margin for robotics/industrial vertical. So current valuation has an extreme disconnect.

Summary: Long VLN: cash+inventory covers most of market cap, core fabless semi business with $80M revenue and high margins effectively priced at zero — extreme valuation disconnect.

Yes for $VLN, cash + inventory makes up majority of its MC not including other assets like IP. They’re fabless semi, $80m revenue, high gross margin for robotics/industrial vertical. So current valuation has an extreme disconnect.

I put out another post recently questioning how markets basically assign no value to the core business like $ETOR if they’re Israeli when they’re majority cash now.

So TLDR: no clue what’s going on and why companies from Israel keep dropping.


Summary: Prefers OTM XLU calls for US power/grid exposure; VST, CEG, TLN also seen as long but XLU offers better upside via options.

This is a riskier option for maximum returns using OTM options in an extremely low volatility ETF in $XLU for US power/grid exposure.

You won't get the same returns from $VST, $CEG, or $TLN, even if they double.

Don't need to pick individual winners with ETFs, sector as a whole should benefit.

@aleabitoreddit Why not just buy leaps in $VST or $CEG  or $TLN direct?


You won't get the same returns from $VST, $CEG, or $TLN, even if they double


Summary: Personal projection of ~400% upside in Soitec by late 2027.

@WaterJunkieCat Late 2027 maybe 400% is my personal projection for Soitec.


Summary: Long EWY calls: MMs mispriced IV at 32% vs realized 7-13% daily moves; expects vega expansion.

Zero exposure to $KORU. I've been warning people not to touch 3x leveraged instruments for this exact reason.

I do have $EWY long calls mainly as a IV arbitrage play as MM's mispriced this at 32% IV.

Stock moving up and down 7-13% a day is evidence they heavily mispriced it, and should benefit from vega expansion.

@aleabitoreddit You 500% long $KORU aren't you ?


Summary: Holds 50% of portfolio in BTC at ~$73K and RKLB; both named highest-conviction long-term assets.

I have pure and completely regarded conviction in Bitcoin.

Just put in 50% of my portfolio into it around $73K.

Bitcoin and $RKLB are my highest conviction assets on a long term timeframe.

I’m happy holding it through any volatility. https://t.co/IskCechnmA

Just woke up from a nap to see everything down 15% from $MU to $SNDK.

Even $CRDO is down 13%, haven’t seen it in the $90s in forever.

What a wild selloff. https://t.co/tytlogNw5o


Bitcoin and $RKLB are my highest conviction assets on a long term timeframe.


Summary: Pluggable optical transceiver companies like AAOI are net beneficiaries once market corrects its misunderstanding of CPO; today's selloff is overdone.

そうそう！市場は『CPO＝フォトニクス』だと勘違いしちゃったんだと思う。CPOなんてそのセクターのほんの一部に過ぎないのにね。
今日はその市場の誤解のせいで、全体が売られちゃった。でも、 $AAOI みたいなプラガブル光トランシーバー企業との違いをみんながちゃんと理解すれば、実は彼らにとってはプラスなんだよね！
それって、『ビットコイン＝金融セクター』だと思い込んで、ビットコインに何かあった時に銀行株まで全部投げ売りするようなものだよ。

🌟フォトニクス全般 勘違い売り

$AVGO CEOの発言を市場が誤解
👉フォトニクス銘柄が朝に一斉売り。 $LITE  や $COHR などが下落。

しかし発言の本質は逆。

話題になった CPO（Co-Packaged Optics） とは、AIサーバー用スイッチチップのすぐ横に光通信を組み込む「【次世代】光接続技術」。


Summary: Author is bullish on MU despite macro headwinds dragging all names lower.

@alejandrobatiz I never said it shouldn't be higher. I'm bullish on $MU, but there's broader macro dragging down every name.

I'm just saying if people like myself were able to model in $MU gross margins for earnings, it shouldn't come to markets as a "surprise beat" that others are claiming.

@aleabitoreddit Definitely. But that does not mean that Micron is not extremely cheap at the moment (sorry for the double negative).

And if the stock price does not go up now for whatever reason, will get cheaper still.

Eventually the stock price will follow those profits.


Summary: Ranks US photonics picks: AXTI top for supply-chain value, LITE undervalued on 2-year view, COHR #3, AAOI #4 moonshot on Maia/Trainium hyperscaler ramp.

$AXTI is my favorite just because of their strategic value to the photonics supply chains.

Otherwise $LITE is runner up, and largely undervalued if you fast forward two years. But as of now it looks a little overextended.

Prob $COHR #3 and $AAOI #4 as another moonshot with hyperscaler qualifications just for Maia and Trainium ramp.

That being said don’t personally like high allocations in smaller stocks like $AXTI, highest might be in $COHR despite it being #3

@aleabitoreddit If you had to start a new position in photonics in US - which would you pick? Multiple? What % allocation in your portfolio


$LITE is runner up, and largely undervalued if you fast forward two years


$AAOI #4 as another moonshot with hyperscaler qualifications just for Maia and Trainium ramp


I swing trade them and think they're still great longs

Summary: Still long both CRDO and ALAB as swing trades in photonics/CPO, though CRDO has lost de-facto leadership premium.

Lot of my copper longs last year like $CRDO and $ALAB ended up becoming pure play photonics/cpo positions this year.

I swing trade them and think they’re still great longs but stocks like $CRDO lose that de-facto leadership status that gives them premiums as you see with $LITE now.

@aleabitoreddit Do you still like $ALAB as a long?


Summary: Staying long Korean memory (SK Hynix, Samsung, EWY) on 100%+ NAND/DRAM price hikes; macro fears overblown, operational income to beat expectations.

IV $EWY trade was successful. Volatility of the Korean Index went from 32% IV -> 46-48%.

Now it's more of a directional long on memory from SK Hynix/Sasmung.

NAND prices hiked up 100%+ Q1 and Samsung reportedly jacked up 100%+ again Q2. DRAM prices also hiked way past expectations.

Helium/Oil/LNG fears are overblown currently so I'm staying long on Korean memory sector.

Operational income should blow away any macro fears.

@aleabitoreddit What is the status of the EWY Trade?


Now it's more of a directional long on memory from SK Hynix/Sasmung


I'm staying long on Korean memory sector


Summary: Long EWY calls: MMs underpricing IV at ~41% vs peers; upcoming leveraged ETFs + DeFi derivatives will expand volatility, benefiting vega.

$EWY looks like it's about to get more volatile.

Market makers might not be pricing in leap option IV correctly as IV may expand past 55%.

Two reasons due to unrealized (but upcoming) volatility.

- 10X leveraged Samsung / Sk Hynix through Defi are here as they begin ramp-up.

This creates a great amount of unrealized volatility from liquidations and hedging on futures like $EWY if this ends up becoming large.

$EWY is half Sk Hynix / Samsung, and the South Korean index is already really volatile.

- 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs for Samsung and SK Hynix are coming

In January 2026, South Korean regulators officially announced they will permit domestic 2x leveraged single-stock ETFs.

Again, this just adds to unrealized volatility.

But as it stands right now regarding option IV pricing.  $EWY moves pretty extreme amounts.

If I had to give a comparison, it definitely moves in greater % ranges than $MRVL, which sits at 55-56% IV (while $EWY is 41% still).

Samsung's equivalent is probably $MU (70%-ish), Sk Hynix is closer to $SNDK (91%) but likely in 70-80% range.

And... South Korea's index is basically just Sk Hynix and Samsung.

This volatility would likely be the new norm as Samsung/SK Hynix begin their re-rating from the memory supercycle. But MMs are still probably using garchr models or volatility forecasting projections against long-term averages (where index was completely flat)

And the amount of leveraged derivatives from 10x will just create more hedging/volatility on these individual stocks from counterparties and market makers -> that gets priced in late to $EWY.

TLDR: $EWY calls likely benefit from vega expansion as MMs aren't pricing in IV and unrealized volatility correctly.

Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel:

Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models.

$EWY long options seem mispriced.

This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix).

The stock https://t.co/mz3gYCiopH


Summary: Holds RDDT as a core long position around $137 cost basis.

@RB1Patrick Yes $RDDT is one of my core longs around $137.

I’m just upset it went below my cost average.


Summary: Bullish SK Hynix and Samsung: both will pass on higher costs via memory price hikes and demand remains resilient vs 2022 downturn.

The main thing was that markets were pricing increased costs eg. crude, LNG, but they're probably missing that it would just get passed onto hyperscalers as they battle for allocation.

But of course it's multifaceted, with possible currency devaluation, profit taking, then deleveraging.

But in the end fundamentals regarding FCF, earnings, and others are what matters most.

And I don't see a world where SK Hynix, Samsung don't pass on costs and hike memory costs more. Memory demand is also not on a downturn like 2022 for consumer/laptop segments.

@aleabitoreddit Agreed. Think Iran's ability to continuously block Hormuz is overestimated in public media. The US + GCC would not tolerate that. They already destroyed most of the Iranian navy in the Gulf of Oman. Easy to police with drones, too, once air superiority has been reached (soon)


Summary: ARM deserves a higher valuation multiple on 5x revenue growth from a new product line.

@mi20483980476 Not exactly. I'm just saying $ARM probably deserves to be a re-rated a tad higher if they're 5xing their revenue from a new product line.

@aleabitoreddit Are you saying you’re bullish ARM


Summary: Made AAOI a core holding; 900%+ revenue growth projected, single-digit PER if achieved, 2028 ramp not yet priced in.

$AAOI の決算は本当に凄かった！というか、それすら控えめな表現だよ！

売上高は900%以上の増加予測で、もし達成できればPERは1桁台になる。しかも、2028年に向けてのさらなる成長（ランプアップ）はまだ織り込まれていないんだ。

だから、この銘柄を自分のコア（主力）銘柄にしたよ！当然、事業遂行リスクや株式の希薄化リスクもあるけど、それ以上にアップサイドを狙う価値があると思ったんだ。特に米国最優先の企業だっていうのが大きいね。

🌟 フォトニクス銘柄
　$AAOI まとめ 【byセレ様】

① 時価総額シナリオ
現在：約50億ドル
→ 来年250〜300億ドルの可能性
※会社の業績予測達成が前提

② アメリカプレミアム
テキサス拠点の米国企業
競合：Lumentum / Coherent / Fabrinet / Broadcom / Innolight / Eoptolink


One of my long positions ... $AEHR has potential as it's now scaling up real-volume after years of R&D and qualification

Summary: Long AEHR: inflection from R&D to mass production, $14M burn-in order, two revenue streams, mgmt guided $60-80M H2 2026 bookings in a large capex cycle.

A simpler overview of $AEHR - $1.1B (without the jargon). One of my long positions:

With AI, thermal is a known bottleneck.

With new gen $NVDA or $AMD type chips that gets hot,  if one chip melts down, it's a disaster.

So tech giants -> every single chip stress tested with heat to see if it fails prematurely in the field.

$AEHR sells the machines that does the testing of these chips.

Last year, they were like $POET (pre-qualification/test phase)

-> but now they've passed.

We're seeing that inflection from R&D to mass production:

Today:

-> $14M order for $AEHR burn-in systems to help scale chip production (wafer level)

But that $14M machine order can only handle a finite number of wafers per week.

-> As this AI customer scales up, they will physically run out of thermal testing throughput.

so they buy more if they like $AEHR, and this ramps up revenue.

They also have a separate product line (Sonoma) for testing chips after they're packaged.

Hyperscalers have been ordering this, so two different testing stages, two revenue streams.

Management guided for a massive second half 2026 $60M to $80M in new bookings (which is big growth).

You can look at $TER ($51B) or Advantest (~$125B) to see the ceiling of how big a lot of these companies can get.

They also do testing across other data center layers too:

- So they're working with NAND Flash memory suppliers
- Silicon photonics

Tried to strip out as much technical jargon as possible so it's more understandable to majority, but it's a very nuanced/technical field.

$AEHR has potential as it's now scaling up real-volume after years of R&D and qualification.

And we're sitting in an enormous capex cycle (think $ASML cycles, where people order a lot of machines for the buildout).


Summary: Still holds SSYS shares; core long thesis intact on US-supply-chain security moat for domestic hardware/defense prototyping despite correcting scale-production assumptions.

I’m issuing a correction to my earlier thread regarding the robotics supply chain bottlenecks.

I removed the original $SSYS post to avoid confusion, as I worded the argument too strongly given the timeframe between OpenAI's announcement to writeup.

Thesis revolved around plastic <- metal, but I mistakened the demos/prototypes with production/scale humanoids and made too strong of casual assumptions. $SSYS revolves around prototyping, rather than production at scale.

Regarding my post around supply chain mapping, this was speculation and I worded it too strongly again.

Example: Q3 2025 Earnings Call (Nov 2025), Stratasys: "global leader in social networks, AI, and VR" purchased F3300 systems.

I assumed this to be $META Humanoids, given the description. But this is unnamed.

There's not many large AI/VR social network companies out there though.

 - For Boston Dynamics:

Nylon 12CF for the Electric Atlas was a technical deduction. EG. electric humanoid jump or flip, keeping distal mass low matters.

"Aluminum is too heavy. Standard plastic (PLA/ABS) is too weak and snaps upon impact.  Main material currently on the market that is light as plastic but strong enough to replace aluminum without expensive tooling is Carbon-Fiber Reinforced Nylon (PA12-CF + Stratasys effectively corners the market on Gov certified Nylon 12CF printing with its F900 and F3300 series + Large-Format FDM Nylon 12CF. "

Boston Dynamics may have used CF-nylon ( Nylon 12CF) for prototype structures. But the production Atlas uses Hyundai Mobis as a confirmed supplier from CES.

That being said, $SSYS still have robotics customers + the rest of their defense contractors are there + defense certification stronghold for military related applications rings true.

But for robotics production at scale, other companies are probably more asymmetrical and I got my thesis off.

Despite the production mix-up, I still hold shares since the core catalyst remains: OpenAI is seeking a US-based supply chain.  $SSYS remains the "Security Moat" for domestic hardware design since it's a risk to have "Physical AI" prototypes on Chinese printers (Bambu Lab) for Defense/DoD applications. (Also Debbie Schultz is long.)

But just wanted to make a correction since my thesis was off after doing more research.

Three things:

1.  I'll refrain from posting novel information synthesis thesis type posts during market hours given how many HFT algorithms now scrap my content to trade.

2. I'll do better with wording in the future given how nuanced the industry is.

3. I'll spend more time on research to make sure I get stuff down correctly first try

Sorry again


Summary: Bullish RPI on institutional validation of its AI infrastructure thesis; TAM expansion with AI agents pending execution.

Raspberry Pi Holdings listed on LSE as RPI.L

Bloomberg on the Raspberry Pi ( $RPI ) and the OpenClaw / PicoClaw / NanoClaw thesis:

In their interview with Adam Montanaro, a fund manager at Montanaro Asset Management:

"Thematically the evolution of a Raspberry Pi from hobbyist board into a core piece of AI infrastructure is correct"

Henry Ren from Bloomberg also stated:

"Another positive for Raspberry Pi has been a rash of share purchases by founder and Chief Executive Officer Eben Upton, who has bought stock on five  separate occasions since late January, filings show."

It's great to see institutional validation of Raspberry Pi's transition from educational hobbyist boards into core infrastructure for AI hardware orchestration.

That being said, the rest depends on the company's execution to grow into their new TAM with AI agents.

Glad my $RPI x OpenClaw 🦞thesis made it to Reuters.

Raspberry Pi’s cheap educational boards had a TAM expansion overnight.

As they’ve become the cheaper standard for AI Agent Orchestration + AI Swarms alongside the $AAPL Mac Mini.

Raspberry Pi has a de facto monopoly in the https://t.co/qemsD902TB


Summary: Long XLU on grid modernization, rate cuts, and AI inference/training power demand.

$XLU was my long of choice for energy/grid modernization, coupled with rate cuts and mass usage from inference/training.

There’s no rush to enter these trades, utilities and power typically move like dinosaurs. But if you’re doing leaps make sure IV is priced correctly at 14-16%, not inflated strikes.

@aleabitoreddit Would you say $XLU still has room for entry for leaps 🤔

The theory and idea makes sense, Jensen said power is the limiter for everyone

First you roll out power plants , then you upgrade grid to handle the increased capacity of 3-5+ GW of power  per year

Grid needs upgrades


Summary: Buy AI stocks over cash; photonics sector is at the start of its cycle with more upside ahead.

@dubiousnoob Best hedge against AGI and general AI is buying AI stocks, not sitting on cash imo.

But not late, things will make new ATHs every day. Just in the middle of the cycle right now for some things (memory) and at the start of others (like photonics)

@aleabitoreddit Am i too late i went cash in all the crazyness of the last couple weeks


Photonics sector basket of optical component names


Starting to feel like the bull cycle is over for $HOOD after their earnings... likely stay rangebound for awhile... short term too many headwinds

Summary: HOOD bull cycle seen as over post-earnings; expects rangebound action near-term on revenue deceleration and stretched valuation.

Starting to feel like the bull cycle is over for $HOOD after their earnings.

I don’t think it’s going to crash, but likely stay rangebound for awhile.

Seeing revenue deceleration to 27% y/y and forward 35 p/e estimates possibly balloon to 45-50+ at a $80B MC.

That growth was partially bought as well (eg. Bitstamp acquisition) rather than new feature monetization like they’ve done in the past.

Long term it still has potential but short term too many headwinds.

The saving grace is crypto market recovering.

Or

- International stock expansion ASAP ( $IBKR is eating up a ton of inflows as investors want exposure to other countries like Japan or Korea)

- Token launch on their new blockchain, so they can bump up balance sheets like BNB and Binance.

With some other ideas, etc.

Don’t think relying on prediction markets is the right choice to go down. It’s definitely a bad optics for short term gain.


Summary: Bullish NBIS: convertible note structure viewed favorably vs equity dilution; stock must rise past high strike for conversion.

Just in: Following the new $27B Hyperscaler Cumulative Deal with $META.

$NBIS launches a proposed $3.75B in convertible note offerings to fund the buildout.

Markets view this as vastly superior to straight equity ATM dilutions.

As the debt only converts to equity if the company successfully drives the stock price up past that high strike.

More details for Nebius are likely to come soon.

Just in: $META signs an enormous $27 Billion cumulative AI spend contract with $NBIS.

Nebius was my top Neocloud AI Infrastruture DC pick.

Glad management is executing toward their $7-9B ARR target.

Nebius is up 14.79% premarket to $129.66. https://t.co/RaaDWm1if0


Summary: Long NBIS with $400 bull-case PT by Q4 on $8B ARR + Clickhouse/Avride sum-of-parts, despite near-term ATM/dilution/macro headwinds.

I covered $NBIS 2 days ago. The momentum trade is now memory/photonics since neoclouds are in the silent buildout phase (with little new news weekly) after getting hyperscaler deals last year.

That being said I still like $NBIS, $400 bull case PT Q4 earnings given they hit $8B ARR, Clickhouse + Avride carries sum of parts (Clickhouse hit $15B valuation, Eg if they raise at $40B that 28% equity is 11.2B, almost half their current valuation).

That being said there’s a lot of short term pressure from ATM overhangs + possible dilution as they raise for the 3GW pipeline from ER, macro (largely), and capex spend during the buildout.

@aleabitoreddit Okay I genuinely want to know why u dont cover $NBIS anymore, u were the biggest mega bull for NBIS and no post for their earnings when u had them at a $500 PT by the end of this year


The company's sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B

Summary: Long AAOI: Rosenblatt says sub-$8B market cap too low vs $4B 2027 revenue potential; author endorses and extends bull case to photonic names broadly. Also implies prior bullish thesis on AXTI.

$ORCL likely $AAOI hyperscaler client per
Rosenblatt analyst.

When I first posted about $AAOI everyone had extreme doubts like on my thesis post on $AXTI.

But don’t take it from me.

My exact same sentiment I shared after earnings is now echoed by other institutional analysts:

“The company’s sub-$8B market cap is too low when its 2027 revenue potential is $4B “

- Rosenblatt.

Likely a long way to go for repricing photonic names given revenue ramp.


everyone had extreme doubts like on my thesis post on $AXTI


Summary: Photonics still early: AXTI and AAOI very early, COHR has room to go, LITE more priced in; IQE early but risky restructuring play.

Probably very early to $AXTI and $AAOI. $LITE slightly more priced in. $COHR has some way to go.

$IQE is very early but I wouldn’t recommend it to people since it’s inherently risky due to restructuring. I’m just sharing why I entered the trade and celebrating along the way.

Then for cpo in 2028 there’s a different set of picks for next year to frontrun.

@aleabitoreddit Is it too late to buy in these photonic stocks?


$IQE is very early but I wouldn't recommend it to people since it's inherently risky due to restructuring. I'm just sharing why I entered the trade


Summary: Bullish IQE on LSE: epiwafer foundry value play, expects Taiwan ops sale to clear debt, key to Western supply chains despite dilution risk.

$IQE is on LSE.

It's basically a bet that they sell their Taiwan operations to get out of debt. Then their epiwafer foundry hard carries valuation (which I think it will as long as they figure out finances).

Risk is future excessive dilution.

But either way it's incredibly important to Western supply chains.

@aleabitoreddit How does one buy $IQE ? OTC markets?


Summary: Bullish on Korea (EWY may double); SK Hynix deeply undervalued vs earnings power, set to earn more than Google by 2027.

Probably. For the IV arbitrage, it’s on the tail end on IV expansion but still a good opportunity with $EWY.

IV 45% does not move 6% a day, especially before 10x perps and 2x leverage ETFs come out.

That being said Korean index will likely keep going up and maybe double. Sk Hynix is making more than Google in 2027 and is valued at like 1/9th the mc.


Sk Hynix is making more than Google in 2027 and is valued at like 1/9th the mc


Summary: Initiating a small long position in INFQ as quantum computing exposure; first public pure-play in neutral-atom QC with real NASA/military use cases.

Decided to go long on $INFQ.

Infleqtion is a brand new Quantum Computing IPO that I've been watching.

Quantum names like:

$IONQ ($11B+) or $RGTI ($5.1B) typically command large premiums (trapped-ion/superconducting qubits).

But, Infleqtion is the first public pure-play in neutral-atom quantum computing.

While most others are speculative, Inflection already has use cases as their quantum sensing division + products like quantum optical clocks, RF receivers, and inertial sensors, are utilized by NASA and the US military.

I've been erring on the side of caution on Quantum Computing names, as Quantum especially, is not valued based on traditional P/E, P/S.

But the technology + national security risks are monumental, and foreign governments are pouring money into the space. And $INFQ seems to be head of the game.

As a result, I personally decided allocate a small percentage toward Infleqtion ( $INFQ ) as exposure to quantum computing.


To me: Yes, Unequivocally. Given the marketcap is a small $7.5B now, I don't think markets will wait for q2 2027 to start pricing it in.

Summary: High-conviction long AAOI to $47.6B MC on photonics moat, US reshoring, and hyperscaler demand; also flags AXTI as under-the-radar upstream photonics play.

Feels like $AAOI ($7.5B MC) is one of the highest upside AI trades right now?

With photonics lot of institutions miss upstream bottlenecks $AXTI, so retail can spot them before they get priced in.

With AAOI, there’s a clear path to a $47B+ valuation from:

Economic moat:
> laser fab, the design, and the assembly
> tripling laser capacity in Texas
> made in America (some assembly in Taiwan but reshoring that to US in 2027)

Projections:
> $378m revenue per month in q2 2027
> guided 35-38% gross margins -> q3 40% gross margins

Demand:
> Hyperscalers buying out any capacity $AAOI / $LITE / $COHR can make

If they hit their 2027 H2 revenue target:

Laser Component Weight: 20% × 18.9x ( $LITE est. multiple) = 3.78x

· Assembly Component Weight: 80% × 8.5x (Innolight/Eoptolink Multiple) = 6.80x

· $AAOI’s Blended SOTP Multiple = 10.58x Forward Sales

You still get a $47.6B Market Cap if they deliver projections.

This is not including any potential Made in America premiums that get assigned to companies like $MU vs. SK Hynix.

And any margin expansion they get from optimizing the transceiver supply chain in-house.

Given the marketcap is a small $7.5B now, I don’t think markets will wait for q2 2027 to start pricing it in.

Is the $AAOI upside worth the execution risk?

To me: Yes, Unequivocally.


With photonics lot of institutions miss upstream bottlenecks $AXTI, so retail can spot them before they get priced in


Summary: Implied bullish lean on HIMS short squeeze potential given 40%+ short interest.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

@EikonDD Yeah seems pretty likely at this point. People were talking about $ENPH doubling off 14% SI but this is 40%+

Was really memorable seeing $GME go from $3->$150 that one year. Don’t think we’ll ever see a repeat of that but curious where $HIMS heads.

@aleabitoreddit It could be great short squeeze. 85% inst +19% Insiders > 100% Shares outstanding.
Add 40% shares sold short and you have a problem... for shorts...

Btw huge rehypothecation here. https://t.co/bOQFC2FFnJ


I'd be personally buying at these levels

Summary: Buying CRDO at current levels after 11% drop; sees panic selling as an opportunity.

@AndrewP64090323 Probably at a “Panic Sell Everything It’s All Over”.

Crazy $CRDO is down 11% so far today, I’d be personally buying at these levels. https://t.co/y96M174lG4

@aleabitoreddit What’s the fear index on $CRDO?


Summary: Plans to invest in Soitec next year; sees it as an indispensable bottleneck play when CPO proliferates around 2028.

@beauty_oe ソイテック（Soitec）はまだ少し早すぎる気がします。なので、投資は来年にしようと思っていました。でも、2028年頃に普及するCPO（共同パッケージ光技術）にとっては、大きなボトルネック（不可欠な存在）になりそうですね！

🌟次のCPO時代のボトルネック銘柄は？　by セレ様／調査中

🔸CPO時代とは？

CPO（Co-Packaged Optics）＝
GPU/スイッチの横に光通信チップを直接載せる技術

👉 AIクラスタが巨大化
👉 電気配線では速度・電力が限界

→ 800G → 1.6T → CPOへ進むと予想される

そこで登場するのがSoitec
$SLOIF


Summary: Suggests looking for entry points in fear-driven selloff across PYPL, COIN, and MSTR as fundamentals have been overridden by sentiment.

Stock markets have entered Fear territory after $PYPL dropped 20.7%+ today.

Crypto markets are now in Extreme Fear after $COIN crashed 48% and $MSTR crashed 51% in the last 3 months.

It looks like retail is panicking.

Cash is a position, but it should have been one a week ago.

Now might be a good time to look for entry points. Especially when Fear has overridden fundamentals.


industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'


Summary: Bullish MU; endorses parent's thesis, citing former TSMC chairman's $8M open-market purchase as a bullish signal.

@GVDInvestor Completely agree, having the former chairman of $TSM buy $8m of $MU on the open market last week is a bullish tell.

@aleabitoreddit I wrote a full article on $MU. I think it can get up to a 30 PE based on the growth of HBM and its nearest competitors trade at those levels.

The low PE comes from the concern of its business cycle as cyclic.

Ai has flipped than on its head as HBM is just as important as the


I buy when fear is max. I expect this to be a short term liquidity shock which I'm buying into, not quantitative tightening. Then a recovery once institutions reposition net long

Summary: Buying BTC into max fear; expects short-term liquidity shock to resolve with institutional repositioning net long within days to weeks.

We went from Greed to Extreme Fear and “bear market/crypto winter” in just one day from the silver forced deleveraging lol. This is the 4th period within the last few years.

As someone who’s been through every crypto cycle since 2016, I buy when fear is max.

I expect this to be a short term liquidity shock which I’m buying into, not quantitative tightening.

Then a recovery one institutions reposition net long which could be in another day or two or weeks.

@aleabitoreddit The problem is the underlying. If you believe in the 4 year cycle then BTC is heading into hibernation for awhile which will leave all crypto stocks zombies for the next year. If you believe BTC will become bullish, then why not just bet on that instead? There’s even BITX for 2x


Summary: Bullish AAOI on optical transceiver demand surge to 2027+; sees rotation into upstream suppliers AIXA, VECO, IQE, AXTI and peers LITE, COHR as photonics paradigm shift begins.

$AAOI's 10x projected rev surge in optical transceiver demand by 2027 for $4.3B ARR off a $5.5B MC...

Is enormous.

$LITE and $COHR might be crowded, but.

We'll likely see rotation upstream like:

$ASML-type suppliers:

- Aixtron (ETR: AIXA): ~75% share for inp MOCVD
- $VECO - MOCVD and MBE (Molecular Beam Epitaxy) systems, probably second.
- Oxford Instruments: Supplier to $AAOI and $COHR for plasma etch and deposition systems

Merchant Epiwafer Fabs (Foundaries for photonics):

- $IQE: largest outsourced compound semiconductor epiwafer manufacturer. Basically $TSM of photonics world but lot of legacy drag.
- LandMark Optoelectronics: Most direct, pure-play for optical transceiver unit growth
- IntelliEPI (TPE: 2462): MBE rather than MOCVD to create high-performance InP epiwafers

Raw Substrate Suppliers (base materials):
- $AXTI/ Sumitomo : everyone knows by now

Transceiver ramp projections is staggering, and this is only 2027.

It's likely exponentially increasing into 2028.

$AAOI's record-breaking earnings signals the start of a new paradigm for photonics, it's a great idea to get exposure.


Aixtron (ETR: AIXA): ~75% share for inp MOCVD


$VECO - MOCVD and MBE (Molecular Beam Epitaxy) systems, probably second


$IQE: largest outsourced compound semiconductor epiwafer manufacturer


Still is Nebius. I'm just saying it was my first Neocloud pick and my favorite Neocloud pick. I have high conviction in Weebius

Summary: High-conviction long on Nebius as top neocloud AI infrastructure/DC pick.

@Viv_Kumar_ Still is Nebius. I’m just saying it was my first Neocloud pick and my favorite Neocloud pick.

I have high conviction in Weebius

@aleabitoreddit "was"

Whats your top neocloud AI nfrastruture DC pick now boss?


Summary: Strongly bullish HIMS into Monday: 40% short float + lawsuit dropped + NVO partnership + global expansion sets up massive short squeeze; author was previously bearish but now turning long.

Monday could make history.

As one of the largest short squeezes in history could unfold.

> Institutions shorted 40% of $HIMS (extraordinarily large)

> expecting 0 revenue growth

> betting the FDA and $NVO would bankrupt the company

All in one day:

> $HIMS lawsuit with Novo Nordisk dropped.

> Hims sudden revenue acceleration begins again.

> All while $HIMS expanded to Canada, Australia, and Japan via Eucalyptus in the meantime.

> $HIMS expanded to UK and Europe with Zava

> Now suddenly a legal global distribution network, healthy balance sheet, $NVO partnership, and 40% of the float shorted.

Likely 0 people expected this.

Especially short sellers who now face billions in infinite losses, that thought HIMS would be bankrupted.

I was bearish on $HIMS too, but this is a massive turnaround story.

The two likely scenarios:

1. One scenario is a Volkswagen-type short squeeze on Monday if all the short sellers tries to cover at once Monday

It's very likely some short sellers want to exit before others do at $22 for risk-management and this causes immediate buying pressure.

2. The other scenario is growth in $HIMS reignited with the $NVO partnership and a slower $TSLA-style squeeze over time as company fundamentals improve.

Given $HIMS was once trading at $70 and now it's back at $22, with both legal clarity + revenue acceleration.

I would personally hop on the boat on Monday to add fuel to the fire to see where this heads.

Could be history in the making.


Summary: Long AIRO: central to Pentagon Replicator drone program; mass drone proliferation drives mass demand for its interceptor bullet drones, boosting revenue.

$AIRO is now up 76.07%.

Don’t think it’s had more than 1 red day since the original posts.

Simple thesis TLDR: central to Pentagon "Replicator", which aims to field thousands of low-cost, disposable drones.

Their “bullet drone” basically intercepts drones or cruise missiles.

And destroys them.

Given warfare is moving to drones, $AIRO just benefits from the sheer, sheer amount of bullet drones needed to intercept and destroy the mass production of other drones.

Everyone mass producing drones?

-> You need someone to mass produce drones that destroy those drones.

Mass production = higher revenue, hence long $AIRO

I’ve taken a position in $AIRO and it’s up +23% since this post 3 days ago.

Markets still don’t know about this Aerospace & Defense stock, despite $ONDS hype.

It’s a drone stock ~$300m MC, with $120m+ est. for 2026 (~2.5 fwd p/s)

Others trade at 30-40+ multiples and bigger https://t.co/HxgEzUXKZE


Summary: AVGO is a solid long overall, but not the best vehicle for optical sector exposure given ASIC-driven growth dominates.

Same as going long on Sumitomo instead of $AXTI.

You're buying a big giant for lower direct exposure to the sector growth. Once might be up 15% YTD, the other might be up 300%.

Buying $AVGO for optical related stuff when a large portion of their growth comes from ASICs is not a great idea. But as a long itself, it's solid.

@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on $AVGO? Thx 🙏


Summary: Long SK Hynix: structurally undervalued on AI-driven memory demand, ~$300B projected 2-year operating profit vs ~$400B market cap.

Memory demand is structural due to AI. Price hikes might not be.

When there's Morgan Stanley projections of:

~$132.9B (2026) + ~$167.0B (2027) = ~300B operating profit from SK Hynix in the next two years and SK Hynix's marketcap is ~$400B.

They will be sitting on piles of cash. I'm not even citing bull-case projections where Macquarie projects $500B operating income because it looks absurd.

But in the base case event that record operating income goes back to earlier levels if dram/nand prices decrease.

It still looks undervalued as AI demand makes memory structural.

AI fundamentally changes how labelled "commodities" work like GPUs or memory.

This is not 2022 where smartphone/consumer electronic decreases crash prices and you can just cite low/pe = short like commodity cycles before.

@aleabitoreddit I think valuations were just absurdly stretched


Summary: Long-term bullish INTC; downside protection from US government strategic need.

@AleMissakian Long term bullish on $INTC. You have downside protection from the government, since America needs Intel to succeed.

Great hold if you have the patience, won't be a 100-200% a month type stock for sure.

I've been guilty of swing trading it recently instead of holding.

@aleabitoreddit What’s your thesis on Intel? Do you have a position in it?  Thanks, as always, for sharing.


$CODA looks very fundamentally sound. High cash balance, net income positive, and extremely high margins for the sector + sensors. Iran placing mines in the Strait just gave sonar/detection stocks like these and $KRKNF the biggest tailwind of the decade.

Summary: Long CODA on strong fundamentals + Iran strait-mining as decade-tailwind for sonar/detection; also bullish KRKNF on same theme; AVAV flagged as drone-warfare beneficiary.

Not exactly, $CODA looks very fundamentally sound.

 High cash balance, net income positive, and extremely high margins for the sector + sensors.

If anything, Iran placing mines in the Strait just gave sonar/detection stocks like these and $KRKNF the biggest tailwind of the decade.

Warfare in Venezulea focused more on drones like $AVAV and never really went underwater.

So this is probably one of the first times everyone sees the applications now + leads to more sector inflows, even if TAM didn't exactly increase too much.

@aleabitoreddit Aren't you afraid of $CODA earnings coming soon?


Iran placing mines in the Strait just gave sonar/detection stocks like these and $KRKNF the biggest tailwind of the decade.

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'


Warfare in Venezulea focused more on drones like $AVAV


Summary: Bullish LITE and memory names through 2028 on sold-out demand visibility; holds through volatility as long as fundamentals intact.

There’s always a bull market somewhere. I’m typically good at spotting it early (eg. 2024 was $MSTR Bitcoin halving frontrun) so doesn’t always apply to AI supply chains.

But hard to see a bear market if companies like $LITE are sold out until 2028? And memory names are sold out until 2028?

There’s short term volatility, but with that type of demand visibility, hard to see medium term drawdowns unless there’s a major macro event. And in those cases, if fundamentals don’t change and it’s just liquidity, then I’m a holder.

@aleabitoreddit Congrats on amazing results. Do you hold everything even through bear markets as long as fundamental story doesn’t change?


Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung


$REMX is a good critical materials ETF. I'm sure it's great exposures to the sector

Summary: Recommends REMX as a good ETF for critical materials sector exposure.

@estcstfreedom $REMX is a good critical materials ETF. I haven’t looked at the portfolio weightings of the names above but I’m sure it’s great exposures to the sector

@aleabitoreddit Is there an ETF that has all of these?


Summary: Long NBIS as top long-term AI exposure pick; NVDA's $2B investment is a strong signal given the market cap.

@beauty_oe $NBIS の時価総額を考えると $NVDA による20億ドルの投資はとてつもなく大きく、彼らの今後の成長を裏付ける超強力なシグナルだ！Nebiusは、AIの未来にエクスポージャーを取るための長期銘柄として一番のお気に入り

🌟 $NBIS についてのセレニティの考え

僕はNebiusは将来的にAmazon級のハイパースケーラーになる可能性があると確信している。

なぜなら、Nebiusは5つの事業を持つ企業群で、それぞれが前年比3桁成長（トリプルディジット成長)しているからだ。

内訳：
・Nebius
AIクラウド事業で


Summary: Bullish VPG as a silent beneficiary of the Optimus ramp.

@sovereignsense Yeah I’ve been talking about $VPG a lot recently. Up 22% this week, silent winner from Optimus ramp.

$VPG breakout +++. Not sure which acct introduced me to this stock but thanks! Was it @aleabitoreddit ? https://t.co/28ajMGx9UB


Summary: MCB seen as biggest alpha opportunity if algorithms misfire on Monday following regional bank collapse news.

Thanks. Was looking for different short/long opportunities after seeing the news of a regional bank collapse.

Looks like Metropolitan was an isolated incident, not related to silver or others.

$MCB is probably the biggest alpha in case algorithms mess that up on Monday though.

@aleabitoreddit Always great commentary!


Summary: Long RDDT: silo structure shields advertisers while war-driven engagement spikes; Iran conflict is net bullish and mispriced.

Shares only. I was looking Elon's posts about X having record engagement back to back:

-> Venezuela: Record engagement
-> Iran: Even higher record engagement.

And was looking at other comments around $PINS / $META bear case indicators of advertisers pulling spend due to timelines.

But $RDDT is perhaps the one of the only few social media companies that has isolation + benefits from a massive spike of user engagement/traffic during war.

Hence why I think the conflict in Iran is net bullish for Reddit and markets are pricing it wrong.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting take, never thought about Reddit as a wartime winner but it actually tracks.

Subreddits act like perfect silos so advertisers don’t freak out and pull budget the way they do on X or META when the For You page turns into nonstop geopolitics doomscrolling.

Plus


Summary: Long DPRO as one of the only public Canadian drone companies positioned to benefit from $1B+ DND 2026/27 budget.

@digestive_bisc Missed out on that huge point thanks. $DPRO benefits a lot from that as one of the only public CAD drone companies.

@aleabitoreddit Also just to mention here

$DPRO

$1B+ DND 2026/27 Budgeted for Canadian Domestic Drone Manufacturing ,
DPRO is one of only two Canadian ‘Qualified’ Manufacturers”

This is directly from the needham growth slides the ceo presented


Summary: Buying photonics stocks on today's dip caused by market misreading AVGO CEO's CPO/copper remarks.

@PhotonCap 전적으로 동의합니다! 시장이 CPO와 구리선 수명 연장에 대한 $AVGO CEO 발언의 미묘한 뉘앙스를 제대로 파악하지 못한 것 같습니다.

오늘은 이러한 오해로 인해 전반적으로 크게 하락한 포토닉스(광반도체) 관련주들을 줍기(매수하기)에 아주 좋은 타이밍이었습니다.

This is true.

Don’t let a single headline mask the big picture; as clusters scale and reach requirements grow, photonics becomes an inevitability, not an option.

While the market panicked over CPO delays, they missed the massive lifecycle extension granted to traditional


Summary: IQE and AAOI flagged as early-stage, not yet priced in; AAOI a potential 10x on end-to-end execution and margin expansion.

Only ones probably not priced in are the more niche ones like epitaxy process on top of the InP substrates or maybe new laser/transceiver players that hit their inflection point.

I mentioned $IQE was extremely early (but more high risk), given their peer Landmark was priced at $3.5-$4B.

This depends on restructuring.

$AAOI is also very early, it's more nuanced since they do end to end (laser -> design -> assembly). If they can execute across each layer and cut out $FN/Innolight type players and expand margins, could be a 10x.

This largely depends on execution though.

$AXTI maybe if Shkreli joins their board and teaches them how to hike prices.

@aleabitoreddit Which one is early and still hasn't 10x?


$AAOI is also very early, it's more nuanced since they do end to end (laser -> design -> assembly). If they can execute across each layer and cut out $FN/Innolight type players and expand margins, could be a 10x


Macronix does look like the mini $SNDK of Taiwan at a $7.89B MC... They're the world's largest suppliers of NOR flash memory, SLC/MLC NAND. So they get free price-hike reign now off legacy nodes that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron left behind.

Summary: Bullish Macronix as the dominant NOR/NAND legacy-node supplier with pricing power after major players' exit.

Woah, Macronix (TPE: 2337) is out here casually outperforming $AXTI?

201.04% vs. 188% Year to Date return, feels bad.

Macronix does look like the mini $SNDK of Taiwan at a $7.89B MC...

They're the world’s largest suppliers of NOR flash memory, SLC/MLC NAND.

So they get free price-hike reign now off legacy nodes that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron left behind.

Interesting beneficiaries post $SNDK earnings that I own:

Phison (TPE: 8299) and Macronix (TPE: 2337).

Similar to Nayna (1,035.96% 1Y) that filled legacy dram void from $MU, Sk Hynix, and Samsung:

Phison does the same with Sandisk with flash (inventory). And Macronix with https://t.co/tbKU03azS6


Summary: Long NBIS: bullish on Nebius as next hyperscaler with 5 high-growth subsidiaries and Nvidia's $2B investment validating the thesis.

Just in: Nvidia has invested $2B into $NBIS.

I'm convinced Nebius is the next Amazon-level hyperscaler over time.

As they're 5 companies all growing sum-of-parts triple digits Y/Y:

- Nebius: $7-9B ARR from AI Cloud as the next AWS.

- Clickhouse: DB powering majority of fortune 500 companies, last valuation at $15B

- Avride: Robotaxi and FSD-4 level technology, now scaling up live with Uber.

- Toloka: Data Labeling platform, funded by Jeff Bezos and used by $AMZN

- TripleTen: Education platform, not as sexy as the rest, but still fast growing.

With sidequests from the widely used benchmarks like SWE-rebench.

Jensen's $NVDA investment into Nebius shares the same sentiment:

Nebius is at the forefront of AI and leading the wave to meet the growing demand for compute.


Summary: Long XLU as a 2-year power/grid sector trade; prefers ETF over picking individual names like BE.

few things:

1. behind the meter seems like a bandaid for the massive GW power required by AI DCs.
2.  grid needing massive upgrades isn't a bear case? probably gives them even more pricing power
3. soec and smr are probably later on past 2029, this is a 2year trade.

$XLU is an ETF so I don't need to pick individual winners like $BE. I'm long power/grid as a sector rather than getting the individual names right.

@aleabitoreddit How about $BE
Isn’t the grid not ready to support this increase? Perhaps behind the meter is the most realistic and quickest way to get energy? And based on recent earnings call, they can also provide chilling.
And looking more into the distant future, with SOEC, combined that


Summary: Shares Citi initiation of NBIS with $169 PT; adopts the bullish stance.

Just in: Citibank initiates coverage in Nebius < $NBIS > and assigns at PT of $169.

Per Bloomberg Terminal https://t.co/y9cYcS6SgK


this is the risk I'm personally willing to take, as clear statements like these means they're heading down the right direction

Summary: Long IQE: restructuring + AI/photonics pivot on 6-inch InP wafers should re-rate it from ~$250M MC to $1B+.

$IQE is up ~70% since I’ve posted.

This is one of the largest InP Epifabs in the world.

However, there’s tons of legacy drag affecting $IQE.

And as a result, smaller pure play peers like Landmark sit at $4.2 Billion MC while $IQE trades at depressed valuations.

With massive reactor latent capacity, and a ~$250M MC, the only thing they needed to do:

Cut Drag. Restructure to clear debt. Focus capacity toward AI.

And the CTO finally went out to reiterate my thesis focusing on photoics:

“For InP, that means 6-inch wafers. IQE was the first to demonstrate 6-inch InP technology more than four years ago, having recognised this need early.

IQE has shown the purity, uniformity and repeatability needed for high-speed optical devices on 6-inch wafers

IQE is primed to help enable the next wave of AI hardware and data centre innovation.”

Although this looks like a bland marketing post, this is the thesis they need to focus on to be re-rated as a billion dollar company.

More industry executives should listen to markets.

The risks are obviously present with restructuring.

But now it’s up to management to successfully execute and put focus on AI/photonics, not legacy segments.

However, this is the risk I’m personally willing to take, as clear statements like these means they’re heading down the right direction.


Summary: Upstream photonics plays IQE, AXTI, VECO, Aixtron not priced in vs crowded downstream names LITE/COHR; bottleneck hunting the photonics capex ramp.

Second order effects from $AAOI earnings:

-> Extreme demand for MBE/MOCVD reactors.

They're needed for epiwafers.

This signals two things for "manufacturing":

- $IQE is sitting on an absolute gold mine

- capex cycle to ( $VECO $1.85B, Aixtron $AIXXF  $3.7B) type players.

Quote: 3-4 hyperscalers, likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT. demand maxed out for transceivers.

->  Innolight, Eptolink, $COHR, and others will probably go through a capex cycle to meet demand too.

This largely benefits both outsourced foundries for epiwafers:

-> $IQE ($175M) ~100+ reactors
-> Landmark (~$3.68B) ~27-30 reactors.

So that's probably the reason why $LITE has been heavily using $IQE, and Landmark has been hitting record revenues. $AAOI's has been building capacity from their texas fab.

TLDR:

1. Aixtron, $VECO benefits from mini $ASML style capex cycle this year. When Aixtron said 2026 "continued softness in overall market environment expected" from feb guidance, maybe they're sandbagging or orders havent come in yet.  That being said, best exposure imo is probably not the machine sellers.

2. $IQE is sitting on a gold mine of capacity to meet demand across $LITE and others hyperscalers for inp epiwafers. They just need to restructure succesfully, to be rerated more like their $3.65B friend in Taiwan.

3. $AAOI earnings is just insane demand for both transceiver makers and the components/materials required to assemble them, definitely not priced in yet.

4. $AXTI as always happens to be the bottleneck of everything as I mentioned last year.

The more well known the name is ( $LITE, $COHR ) the likely more crowded/priced-in.

But when you go more upstream, there's a ton of hidden gems markets haven't priced in yet that benefit from the massive photonics ramp.

It's the new gold rush for investors, but bottleneck hunting.


Aixtron, $VECO benefits from mini $ASML style capex cycle this year


$AXTI as always happens to be the bottleneck of everything


The more well known the name is ( $LITE, $COHR ) the likely more crowded/priced-in


Summary: Long LASR as the sole US pure-play on directed-energy weapons; endorses Baird's 'One of One' Stay Long thesis, citing Iron Beam momentum and Golden Dome TAM expansion.

$LASR: “A One of One Company; Stay Long”.

This is exceptionally strong wording coming from Baird.

Analyst reports typically never illicit this strong of wording with Outperform ratings.

However the excitement is real:

Especially after live videos of an operational the Iron Beam this week ( $LASR known supplier ), lasering down incoming missiles.

And with the imminent TAM expansion with America’s Golden Dome Project.

$LASR is the only publicly tradeable US pure play exposure to energy directed weapons.

I share the same sentiment with Baird  analysts that it is a One of One company.


Summary: CRCL: bearish-neutral near-term on QT/Warsh headwinds, very bullish long-term at $14.9B market cap.

Rare earth sector from $MP to $USAR sell-off was an algorithmic mistake due to Reuters publishing false information -> retracting it later.

However, like Bitcoin's initial liquidation from Binance errors, the damage has been done.

I see Warsh is unfortunately net bearish $CRCL. So it's extremely nuanced since these two things contradict each other: shrinking the balance sheet (Quantitative Tightening) is "tightening," while cutting rates is "easing.

But if the Fed cuts (bullish for crypto/AI growth) and long-term Treasury yields stay elevated because of a smaller Fed balance sheet, Circle can continue to earn high interest on its reserves while the broader crypto market rallies. (this is goldilocks scenario).

Otherwise QT and rate cuts just hurts Circle a lot. But despite this, USDC volume/supply remains ATHs above $70B+ and I remain bearish-neutral short term, very bullish long term at $14.9B MC.

Going back to rare earths, it's essentially neutral. Like Samsung/TSM in foreign countries, even though there might be some headwinds. Ultimately US policy with AI growth cannot function without them + or rare earths so they're a necessity in the supply chain.

Fundamentally after a major crash like that (even if it's fake) recovery takes longer but presents good dip opportunities. But they're still up a ton YTD, which is why there might be further volatility ahead (eg. $USAR 58% YTD).

@aleabitoreddit What’s your take on nuclear and rare earths? Pre rev like oklo smr uuuu? And how does warsh affect your crcl thesis?


Summary: Strong buy on RDDT at $135; insanely undervalued vs growth/profitability, wartime engagement boost, NOL carryforwards add upside.

Agreed, there’s actually some net operating loss carry forwards but even if you model that out a few years from now.

$RDDT is insanely undervalued relative to growth and profitability.

And I think wartime actually boosted 2026 q1 engagement metrics/revenue numbers past expectations.

People just look at the chart and think the drop is ugly, but Reddit is of the strongest buys for me right now.

Seeing a ton more chatter about $RDDT now…

I did a deep-dive on them 2 months ago and quite frankly, the only thing that held me back was valuation.

At $230, the risk-reward wasn’t there.

At $135…what are people thinking?

Trading at 11 p/s, 30x fwd P/E with 70% growth. https://t.co/vBHxmj50Ux


Summary: ARM's new AGI CPU is a large tailwind as it pivots from licensing; TSM is the main beneficiary as the 3nm fab.

$ARM announces new AI chip called "AGI CPU"

According to Arm, the company "Expects it to add billions in annual revenue".

- 136 Neoverse V3 cores, built on $TSM 3nm process

- Custom-built for "agentic AI" workloads with OpenAI and $META as lead customers.

$AMD and $INTC have recently received a tailwind from enterprise CPU shortage.

You might be wondering:

Does ARM Solve the Shortage? Architecturally, yes. Physically, no.

Main beneficiary is $TSM, but this is a large tailwind for $ARM moving forward as they pivot from licensing.


테슬라 옵티머스 수혜주 중 서구 로봇 공급망 쪽에서는 정말 알짜배기 니치 종목이거든요. 여기가 진짜 기회라고 생각해요

Summary: Long VPG as a high-quality niche play in Western robot supply chain; sees real opportunity while market focuses on AI.

@leavego8102 $VPG 를 이제라도 알게 되셔서 다행이네요! 테슬라 옵티머스 수혜주 중 서구 로봇 공급망 쪽에서는 정말 알짜배기 니치 종목이거든요. 다들 AI에만 몰두하느라 우주나 로봇, 드론 공급망 쪽은 아직 많이들 안 보는데, 그래서 저는 여기가 진짜 기회라고 생각해요

@aleabitoreddit 고맙습니다. 덕분에 또 매력적인 회사를 알게되었습니다


Summary: Bullish MU: NAND price hikes drive margins to 77.2%, forward P/E compresses to 8.2-8.5x, stock can't keep up with improving fundamentals.

@sarfatti_IR Yeah this is incredible for $MU and all these price hikes break traditional modeling.

I did some calculations again and forward p/e might compress to ~8.2-8.5 of 77.2% gross margins

The valuation can’t keep up with the stock price

@aleabitoreddit "Reports indicate that Samsung Electronics has now initiated a new round of negotiations with clients regarding NAND prices for the second quarter, with the market generally expecting the upward price trend to continue into the second quarter."

Will probably see further pricing https://t.co/tPoTwsu8co


Summary: AAOI outperforms over next year on small-cap size and leapfrogging optical peers; COHR, AXTI, LITE more defensible long-term.

@SkiIIls No over the next year I think $AAOI will outperform just due to its small MC size + leapfrogging the other optical companies.

$COHR, $AXTI, $LITE are much more defensible long term.

@aleabitoreddit So would you say as of right now $aaoi is a much better long term pick than $Cohr and $lite?


$COHR, $AXTI, $LITE are much more defensible long term


Summary: Long XLU calls for US power/grid exposure as a play on Musk's AI chip surplus / power bottleneck thesis.

@r0ck3t23 For people wondering the best trade for what Elon just said:

$XLU long calls for US power/grid exposure, just putting it out there.

Elon Musk just identified the next crisis in AI. It’s not a shortage. It’s an unusable surplus.

Musk: “By the end of this year, chip production will outpace the ability to turn chips on.”

For three years the world was starved for silicon. Every lab, every government, every https://t.co/KptxIQKZjG


Summary: POET has low downside risk given $400M cash vs $1B MC and MRVL partnership; good upside for patient holders, though better entry may be latter half of 2026.

I just found $POET to be low downside risk given they're sitting on like $400m cash with a $1B MC. Then $MRVL probably won't swap them out for 2028-2029 commercialization ramp.

That being said, will sit on close to $0 revenue for awhile, so I personally found maybe waiting latter half of 2026 is probably better.

For others who have the patience now, seems like good upside for the wait.

@aleabitoreddit $POET, do you think we should wait?


it's a liquidity drain. Not a catalyst for crypto

Summary: Clarity Act is a liquidity drain, not a bullish catalyst for crypto; bearish view on sector.

Crypto sector ETF BITQ avoids quoteType mismatch

@2dogs1chic If you look at the actual clarity act clauses it’s a liquidity drain. Not a catalyst for crypto

https://t.co/O8lLPuTwal

The Clarity Act passing will finally give guidance to institutions that legally cannot buy Bitcoin today.

That means:

• $40T in U.S. pensions
• $30T in corporate & institutional treasuries
• $7T in insurance capital
• $11T in sovereign wealth funds
• $10T in 401(k) &


Summary: Bullish MRVL on MSFT ASIC ramp and photonics exposure; waiting for H2 entry personally but clearly a forward long lean.

Absolutely. I do like $MRVL. They're especially tethered to $MSFT ASIC ramp and seem to be touching upon a lot of hot areas like photonics like you mentioned after Celestial.

There were reports last year that Maia 200 was pushed back by about 6 months. I don't have $MRVL right now, since I'm personally waiting for H2 (thats just me), since financial ramp starts later this year into 2027.

@aleabitoreddit What are your thoughts on $MRVL? They seem like they’d benefit massively from the photonics AND custom ASICs.


$ARM のAI CPUの収益拡大予想、マジでヤバいね

Summary: Bullish ARM on AI CPU revenue expansion potential; excited as he was about SK Hynix and Samsung.

@beauty_oe SKハイニックスやサムスン以来、大型株でこんなにワクワクしたのは久しぶり! $ARM のAI CPUの収益拡大予想、マジでヤバいね。

🌟セレ様PF更新
私は $ARM （Arm Holdings） を139ドルでロングしました。

市場が「トレーニング中心 → 推論」へシフトしていく中で、時価総額1430億ドルでも十分に魅力的なロングだと考えています。

その後は、ARMのAI向けCPUが推論市場を侵食し、 $NVDA のシェアを食っていく展開。


The $4.23 Billion monopoly that every tech company in the world is fighting over… Disclosure: I own positions.

Summary: Long Nitto Boseki (NBCLF) as an 80-90% market-share monopoly on T-glass used in AI semiconductors, sold out through 2026, with Apple/Nvidia/TSM fighting over supply.

Nitto Boseki - $NBCLF | 3110:

The story of an extreme bottleneck for AI:

> Spin Yarn/Glass in 1923
> Be good at it
> Create "T-Glass" for tennis rackets
> Wait 100Y, everyone needs it
> $TSM for CoWoS
> $APPL for M-Series Ultra/Max
> $NVDA for Blackwell + Vera Rubin
> $TSLA for chips inside FSD cars
> $AMD for MI300/MI400 AI accelerators
> $ANET for 800G to 1.6T and 3.2T
> Have Apple to Nvidia to TSM fighting over supply
> Sold out through 2026
> Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm sends teams live on site to literally beg this Yarn Maker for glass supply
> Now is 80-90% market share of the high-end T-glass used in semiconductors

The $4.23 Billion monopoly that every tech company in the world is fighting over:

A random Japanese Yarn Spinner.

Disclosure: I own positions.


Summary: Long LPTH as domestic germanium-optics beneficiary of US-EU supply-chain disruption; current dip seen as indiscriminate selloff.

$LPTH is actually one of the big benefiaries of conflicts between US and EU for supply chain disruption as US imports significant amount of germanium from Germany and Belgium.

And Lightpath offers the bottleneck alternative with black diamond manufactured 100% in US (precursors mainly US too)

This is probably just a wide indiscriminate selloff.

@aleabitoreddit $LPTH has dropped a bit pre-open too


Summary: Long MU: 133% rev / 319% EPS growth, HBM re-rating underway; target $672/share near-term, $1.5T market cap by 2027.

$MU forward P/E is still ~11.6

It's projecting:

- 133% Y/Y Revenue Increase
- 319% Y/Y EPS Increase

This is called the memory supercycle for a reason.

Even after a 40%+ this month, it's still hasn't even been fully re-rated yet.

At current prices, it would still be valued like a slow growth commodity at $387.

This is why every single dip gets bought by institutions during the re-rating process, since HBM is now extremely valuable

IMO Micron deserves at least a 20 fwd P/E at today given growth/profit margins, ~$750B so $672/share.

In 2027, wouldn't be surprised if Micron was trading at $1.5T.

Never bet against the White House.

$INTC is probably one of the most asymmetrical longs in the semi space right now. https://t.co/ow1BO48XO4


Finding companies that weren't priced into current pluggable cycles (EMl-transceiver companies like $LITE and $COHR)

Summary: Bullish on LITE, COHR (underpriced pluggable cycle), SOI (substrate revenue upside), SIVE and POET (CPO/silicon photonics supply chain), AAOI (800G/1.6T pluggable cycle).

Three things:

1/ Generally, the lower the marketcap, the higher the upside (but more risk)

2/ Finding companies that weren’t priced into current pluggable cycles (EMl-transceiver companies like $LITE and $COHR)

3/ Pure play to the upcoming cpo/silicon photonics paradigm shift.

In terms of chasing “highest upside”:

If you look at $MRVL Celestial to $TSM COUPE they’re both already massive companies. And it’s just a fraction of their revenue. So that’s likely excluded unless traders use options.

Stuff like SOI substrates for $SOI will make a more material difference toward revenue (higher upside).

Then others like upstream laser supplier $SIVE to ->$POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> hyperscaler supply chains, I’ve identified as a high potential beneficiary.

But there’s still a massive upside for companies like $AAOI in the 800g/1.6T pluggable cycle.

I’m sure there’s a lot of mispriced or unknown opportunites out there… as

The TAM for cpo scale up is like a vertical like up, but things like $SIVE are used for light sources in scale up and laser arrays for scale up.

@aleabitoreddit Or all the photonics opportunities, which would you say has the highest upside?


upstream laser supplier $SIVE to ->$POET -> $MRVL Celestial -> hyperscaler supply chains, I've identified as a high potential beneficiary

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ


there's still a massive upside for companies like $AAOI in the 800g/1.6T pluggable cycle


If a company files for $6 Billion in ATM dilution, you should expect them to use it and position accordingly... ATM dilution wiping out all value has happened multiple times. The company will likely end up fine don't conflate that with the performance of your shares.

Summary: Bearish IREN: $6B ATM dilution expected to obliterate retail shareholder value, citing management track record with BKKT and ASST wiping out 98-99% of equity.

The primary argument for Iren’s $6B dilution was:

“Trust in $IREN management with managing dilution.”

If you look at the actual history of IREN management with:

$BKKT and $ASST.

Both companies have completely obliterated shareholder value from
ATM dilution.

Dropping all original retail share value down by 98-99%.

Companies like Bakkt have been doing okay.

But both stock based compensation to executives + dilution wiped out all equity value from retail.

If a company files for $6 Billion in ATM dilution, you should expect them to use it and position accordingly.

Maybe $IREN turns out differently.

But saying “Trust in Management” then looking at the track record of management of hype retail stocks -> ATM dilution wiping out all value has happened multiple times.

The company will likely end up fine don’t conflate that with the performance of your shares.

I care the most about retail shareholders over corporate executives, which is why I’m sharing the red flag about $IREN $6B ATM.

$IREN $6 Billion ATM is massive.

For the people who hold $IREN, the truth you might not want to hear is:

-> Wait until existing holders get diluted to oblivion
-> Use them to "buy the dip" of $6 Billion in new shares for you.
-> Go long after.

If you're long now:

That https://t.co/RNOw5xG7za


Summary: Bullish AXTI long-term: China export controls harm competitors like Sumitomo, giving AXT control over InP supply chain as a critical photonics chokepoint.

No? Export controls are good for them since it harms their competitors like Sumitomo as upstream materials the need come from China.

Since they require them to make InP substrates.

It’s a double edged sword short but gives $AXTI more control over the InP supply chain in the long run.

As you’re seeing now, the photonics buildout relies on AXT, which now makes them a critical chokepoint at the top of the supply chain

@aleabitoreddit What do you think about China’s export controls? Most of the thesis relies on China lifting them no? So they can meet/exceed revenue or no? Because if its unclear, Id think most would bypass them and go straight to Sumitomo no?


Summary: Author holds a live long position in VPG, viewing its foil-tech moat as securing high-end Optimus sensor supply.

So that’s just the direct quote from the article, haven’t gone further into analysis. It did mention “hundreds of Chinese suppliers” so other threats may be Keli Sensing, Hanwei Electronics, Donhua, etc.

Regarding $VPG, agreed I’d assume they’re required high-end Optimus versions given their moat in their foil tech. And I still have positions.

That being said it’s always good to publish risk disclosure so people can do their own research, since the chance they get designed out is nonzero. Elon is targeting $20K Optimus for mass production after all

@aleabitoreddit $VPG manufactures high-precision sensors for robotic joint force measurement. Everwin produces the metal structural components and connectors needed for mass assembly. Do not be concerned by the tweet saying "sensors" alongside Everwin. Totally different parts of the BOM.


Summary: Sees good buying opportunities in SMCI, ON Semiconductor, AAOI, and AEHR at current levels.

@DegnFarmer Oh I am. There's a ton of good opportunities ON, $SMCI at $18.5, $AAOI at $86, $AEHR, etc.

@aleabitoreddit You not interested in this $SMCI dip?


Wouldn't be surprised if Samsung were trading at $2.5T in the future (from $1T now). It does have that same feeling as $TSM 2 years ago, where it looks like a no-brainer long.

Summary: Bullish Samsung ($2.5T target vs $1T now), SK Hynix (cheap vs cumulative operating income projections), and KOSPI/EWY as both stocks dominate the index in price discovery mode.

$KOSPI and $EWY, South Korea’s index is something people shouldn’t try to TA or compare to stuff like Silver.

SK index is in price discovery mode as it’s carried by two stocks:

Whose operating profit projections from Morgan Stanley and Macquarie are:

Samsung
2026: ~$182.0B - ~$210.8B USD
2027: ~$235.1B -  ~$333.7B USD

SK Hynix:
2026: ~$132.9B - ~$190.5B USD
2027: ~$167.0B - ~$312.8B USD

If SK Hynix is valued at $500B and their projected operating income for FY 2026 and 2027 is $510B.

It just looks silly. (From Macquarie's bull case projections on the right)

I’d probably go off Morgan Stanley projections instead (which is a lot more grounded) but the point still stands that these companies are just so profitable.

Wouldn’t be surprised if Samsung were trading at $2.5T in the future (from $1T now).

It does have that same feeling as $TSM 2 years ago, where it looks like a no-brainer long.


If SK Hynix is valued at $500B and their projected operating income for FY 2026 and 2027 is $510B. It just looks silly.


$KOSPI and $EWY, South Korea's index is something people shouldn't try to TA or compare to stuff like Silver. SK index is in price discovery mode


Summary: Long RDDT at $139 post-earnings dip; long OSS as moonshot on edge AI/defense with potential $200M contract re-rating.

$RDDT feels like a strong buy again after drop to $139 post earnings. Earnings felt great, looked option related selloff.

$OSS is a moonshot type small cap pick for edge AI + defense spend. I made a post that showed they were already validated in Venezuela combat. If they can secure that $200m contract, could easily be re-rated.


$OSS is a moonshot type small cap pick for edge AI + defense spend. If they can secure that $200m contract, could easily be re-rated


$RKLB again I felt was near term overvalued but I'd add heavy concentration if it dropped further

Summary: RKLB near-term overvalued at current levels; would only add on further price decline.

@DanielM16458500 Oh I forgot to include $FLY as a moonshot pick for their medium lift launch with $NOC. I have a lot of weird niche picks in my personal porffolio that I didn’t include.

$RKLB again I felt was near term overvalued but I’d add heavy concentration if it dropped further.


$ALAB (Leo) ... Especially Astera. If it becomes a new architectural paradigm, companies like Astera maybe would sell millions of net-new CXL controllers to manage the external memory pools. Recent drop across the board presents a good opportunity for these three.

Summary: Bullish on ALAB, AVGO, MRVL as the top US CXL plays on DeepSeek-driven memory architecture shift; recent dip is a buying opportunity.

If you're bullish on DeepSeek LLMs with Engram (v4), going long on CXL seems like a idea.

- $ALAB (Leo)
- $AVGO
- $MRVL are your big three in the US.

Especially Astera.

If it becomes a new architectural paradigm, companies like Astera maybe would sell millions of net-new CXL controllers to manage the external memory pools.

That being said, lot of reports are usually sensational around DeepSeek (internal benchmarks perform different than IRL), and might just be relegated to offline batch processing

Recent drop across the board presents a good opportunity for these three.


$AVGO ... your big three in the US. Recent drop across the board presents a good opportunity for these three.


$MRVL are your big three in the US. Recent drop across the board presents a good opportunity for these three.


Summary: Bullish IQE on latent InP epiwafer capacity; waiting for restructuring/debt clearance via Taiwan asset sales as catalyst.

@BobbaPaddop I really like $IQE just given latent capacity if they refactor toward InP epiwafers...

There's not really much going on, just waiting for any restructuring announcements, since that's debt is the main overhang (and Taiwan asset sales would clear it)

@aleabitoreddit and yet IQE is still THE most undervalued at £248mc


Summary: Bullish indium (InP supply crunch + photonics ramp not started); bearish Lumentum as hyperscalers can vertically integrate it away but not raw materials.

Fair points and two misunderstandings:

- US requires InP for AI buildout. This is non-negotiable. And we saw that "trade", $NVDA GPUs for unblocking critical materials/feedstock/substrates bans recently. US and China unfortunately are dependent on one another despite being the biggest geopolitical adversaries.

- We're already seeing 7n indium reach ATHs on SMM (depsite recent dip today), and photonics ramp hasn't even started the curve yet. You say SiPh substitution, but you can't substitute away InP. Custom chips might use hybrid w/silicon + InP laser but you still need it.

- It scales up exponentially, $NVDA secured EML capacity, $MSFT maia is expected to take up double digits of inp supply chain. Highly doubt there's enough inventory for everyone to keep it accessible.

- Sure, or they can price hike to make up for yield

- This is not something you can vertically integrate. The entire supply chain is a physics/materials problem because majority is only accessible in China.

Hyperscalers can vertically integrate away $LITE but not the raw precursors or materials.

@aleabitoreddit Fair points on the supply chokepoint - here's what keeps me cautious though:

- geopolitical trap: US company, China manufcaturing. Export permits are already delaying revenue. One policy shift kills the chokepoint instantly.

- SiPh substitution risk - if InP demand grows slower


Micron fundamentally keeps getting cheaper every day and stock price can't keep up

Summary: Bullish MU: price hike drives forward P/E down to ~8.9, stock undervalues improving fundamentals.

@TechEquityEng With this insane price hike, some napkin math calculations might bring $MU back to forward p/e ~8.9 from previous expectations.

Micron fundamentally keeps getting cheaper every day and stock price can’t keep up.

@aleabitoreddit Let the party begin $MU. I grabbed as much shares as I could spare few weeks ago 🙏


I've added to my $AVAV positions on the 16% dip. Markets made a mistake... So I personally ended up buying the dip today.

Summary: Added to AVAV on 16% dip; argues SCAR contract was misread as cancelled, crown jewel Switchblade intact.

I’ve added to my $AVAV positions on the 16% dip.

Markets made a mistake with regarding the Scar program news.

- Markets thought SCAR program was canceled hence 15%+ selloff.

- It’s not. In the 8-K regulatory filings they said they would “continue providing capabilities and products for the SCAR program.”

- This was contract re-negotiation. Not cancelled.

Also this was a small $175m fw revenue contract. $AVAV crown jewel is Switchblade via Replicator

So I personally ended up buying the dip today.

I've initiated positions in $VPG ($573m).

This is my actual/main robotics sector exposure going forward, tethered to $TSLA Optimus.

Markets have completely overlooked this robotics sector play:

For every Tesla Optimus deployed, $VPG likely takes an exceptionally high BOM for https://t.co/c21atQhoMe


Summary: Bullish AXTI as a duopoly in InP/feedstock bottlenecks; bullish IQE on potential pure-play pivot re-rating.

Yep, that’s a good analysis! $AXTI is basically a duopoly in two different bottlenecks (upstream feedstock processing and InP substrates).

$IQE is really critical but most people don’t really do the mapping to $LITE to other hyperscalers.

It’s probably the largest western epiwafer fab, and landmark is $3.85B MC. vs IQE $150m mainly due to balance sheet and pure play exposure.

If they just pivot to pure play the cut the drag could be rerated quite a bit

@aleabitoreddit Good map. Most  stop at $LITE $AAOI the real leverage is upstream. $IQEPF is critical, but not a true monopoly like $AXTI.

It’s who controls Western-qualified InP capacity under export pressure.

If geopolitics tightens, hyperscalers won’t want full reliance on Asian epi lines.


If they just pivot to pure play the cut the drag could be rerated quite a bit


Summary: Bullish XLU into 2026: AI-driven rate base expansion + rate cut tailwinds boost EPS and P/E multiples for regulated utilities.

Two things:

1. Mixing up profit margin with TAM
2. Statement you made conflates ROE with stock market returns.

You're correct in saying earnings = allowed roe × rate base and roe is capped for regulated utilities. Don't need allowed roe to go up, just rate base to explode (it is now since hyperscalers are paying for grid upgrades)

The main thing is that one specific metric ROE, does not equate to multifaceted stock performance.

Stock % returns are driven by EPS, P/E expansion from rate cuts, future expected growth (especially looking at DC growth from AI inference + capex cycle).

Given the massive AI spend coupled with rate cut tailwinds, I expect 2026 to be the anomaly.

@aleabitoreddit Question for you (and there is a real chance I'm missing something)

XLU is comprised of ~85% regulated generation, transmission, and distribution monopolies (e.g., NextEra, Southern Co., Duke, AEP).

Only a ~10–15% minority fraction is allocated to Independent Power Producers


Summary: Bullish on underwater defense names KRKNF, OPTT, and CODA as Iran mine threat drives investor attention and potential defense contracts.

WSJ: Iran’s Sea Mines Are One of Its Most Powerful Weapons

“Mines have been among the most destructive weapons that the U.S. Navy has faced”

More attention is now being poured into the Underwater defense sector.

Ocean defense names such as $KRKNF, $OPTT, and $CODA that are popular on X for sonar and mine neutralization applications.

May finally see more investor attention and possible defense contracts.

Especially as US media cycles focus on the mines beneath the Strait.


Summary: LASR named the purest play on directed energy weapons following US DoD confirmation; bullish on defence laser exposure.

$LASR (NLight), a $2.2B US company does these directed energy weapons.

They build the "Death Ray" - Lasers that shoot down ballistic and hypersonic missiles.

This can be adapted to Orbital death rays beaming from Space down to Earth.

Israel's Iron Beam system (Laser Air Defense) uses NLight too.

So if you want to invest in Directed Energy Weapons, $LASR is the purest play.

BREAKING:

US Department of War confirms the existence of directed energy weapons. https://t.co/Pe1oZ2lpdx


Summary: Bearish CRWV (NVDA deal a casino trap) and CRCL at $200; bullish NBIS as an algorithmically oversold neocloud with better FCF profile.

This aged well, $CRWV down ~28% in the past month.

I feel like the best bears would actually be long investors or swing traders.

If you see red flags, with Coreweave or $CRCL at $200, can always play the other direction instead of avoiding it.

That being said, $NBIS and others have been being brought down algorithmically with the sector

I’ve noticed this again and again, not all Neoclouds are built the same.

- One Neocloud might have billions in yearly debt interest hurting FCF

- The other Neocloud might not…

Thinking about buying $CRWV on the $NVDA deal?

Here's the way to think about it:

A casino gives you more money, so you could take on more debt with collateral to gamble.

Then all the extra money goes back to the Casino (aka. $NVDA).

That doesn't make Coreweave a good long. https://t.co/aVGmvnYlnw


$CRCL at $200, can always play the other direction instead of avoiding it


$NBIS and others have been being brought down algorithmically with the sector


Summary: Bullish on MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix into open on DRAM +70% and NAND +100% price hikes signaling memory supercycle.

@jukan05 Wow. I've seen DRAM estimates be ~55% – 60% and NAND ~33–38%.

So the jump to 100% is just... unbelievable.

Memory supercycle for a reason with $MU, Samsung, and SK Hynix. This is going to be fun when markets open.

Just in: Samsung has raised DRAM prices by 70% in Q1 and is now hiking NAND flash prices by 100% (According to reports from South Korea’s local press)


Summary: Bullish AMZN: hyperscaler orders won't slow given 800G/1.6T networking is a genuine bottleneck with no capacity relief.

Yep lot of people have PTSD from management in the past. I just felt the risk-reward was extremely asymmetrical if they deliver even 65%% of their guidance.

Also I do feel like hyperscalers like $AMZN won't pull back orders this time as 800g/1.6T it's genuinely a bottleneck with no end to capacity relief in sight.

@aleabitoreddit But have to acknowledge management has bad record in the past… they over promised and under delivered. But even they only achieve 70% it’s still very attractive


$CEG, $VVST and others are independent so they have more pricing power... power capacity prices are skyrocking

Summary: Bullish on independent power producers CEG and VVST (and XLU) on pricing power + AI-driven demand exceeding supply funding historic grid expansion.

@adenois few things, $CEG, $VVST and others are independent so they have more pricing power. they're also a large % of $XLU concentration +  power capacity prices are skyrocking.

And with AI, yes demand > supply and mag7 is largely funding this new historic grid expansion.

@aleabitoreddit Makes sense due to the low IV. Any thoughts on regulatory overhang that limits pricing power? Or is your thesis, demand>supply will eventually end up adding to the bottomline of these companies?


they're also a large % of $XLU concentration + power capacity prices are skyrocking


Summary: Strongly bullish CRCL at $54/$12B MC; USDC supply $70B+ and stablecoin growth thesis intact despite price reset from $150-200.

I really, really like $CRCL at $54.

Valuation has been completely reset back to $12B MC.

Everyone was rushing to buy it back at $150-200 but at $54, it's a ghost town. USDC supply still $70B+ and I expect stablecoins to continue growing in usage. https://t.co/R2Habycf7d


Summary: Selloff in Mag7 has gone too far; risk/reward compelling on hyperscaler spend, expects rotation back into US tech.

Feel like Mag7 selloff from $META at $593 to $MSFT at $373…

Has gone a bit too far?

At this point, risk/reward feels on hyperscaler spend vs. ROI vs. macro climates, feels compelling.

And we should see capital rotations back into the American tech sector soon. https://t.co/KBCi7gMfGT


Summary: Holds a long position in AEHR as a play on thermal/test equipment for high-performance semiconductors and photonics.

@thephillydegen I went long on $AEHR for this segment

@aleabitoreddit Seriously check out some of the testing. It’s gonna be needed. The thermal and test equipment is needed to validate high-performance semiconductors and photonics components. That’s what $INTT is doing.


I bought $AAOI $28-32. And I'm a heavier buyer at $88-$90. I don't see how this company should be worth anywhere close to $6.4B if they get even close to these capacity targets.

Summary: Long AAOI; actively buying and believes current market cap of $6.4B vastly undervalues the company's capacity potential.

@k_a_y_b_e_e_ I bought $AAOI $28-32. And I’m a heavier buyer at $88-$90.

I don’t see how this company should be worth anywhere close to $6.4B if they get even close to these capacity targets.

@aleabitoreddit I DCA'd the hell out of it at 86. Bought deep in the money leaps. At 37.  Thought it's better than common stock


$EWY long options seem mispriced. Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index.

Summary: Long EWY calls: index IV (~32%) mispriced vs Samsung/SK Hynix volatility; vega expansion expected as memory supercycle reprices forward vol upward.

Trade idea that I published to my shower thoughts channel:

Korean Index volatility arbitrage and taking advantage of Black-Scholes models.

$EWY long options seem mispriced.

This is Blackrock's Korea Index, which is majority memory (Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix).

The stock swings 2-5+% a day, and is up 136.25% 1Y, despite priced like a normal index IV.

Samsung is volatile. SK Hynix is volatile (eg. 65% - 80% est).

But the combination of the two through the index is priced way less than both low beta $GOOGL (37.33%) and $AMZN (39.12%) at ~32% IV.

I've been watching $EWY for a bit and it does look volatile.

As for pricing my guess is MMs priced in IV based on historical averages (5-10 years), where the Korean index was completely flat. And were expecting calls 2 years out to revert to the mean.

But this volatility should be the new norm as markets price in the new memory supercycle (eg. $TSM went from 30% IV to 46.2% IV).

Long calls should benefit from both Samsung + Sk Hynix carrying the index.

And the main benefit is vega expansion that you won't get from $KORU.

You also can't get this option MM pinning like individual US stocks since this is Korea's national index and long term.

TLDR: Individual components SK Hynix + Samsung are highly volatile.

They're basically half of the index, but options in index are priced with low volatility, perhaps due to historical 5-10 year data.

Long calls benefit from vega expansion that weren't priced in correctly as MM forward vol estimates are anchored too heavily on historical realized vol, which was low for $EWY over the past 5-10 years

These numbers are staggering:

Samsung and SK Hynix are projected to become the most profitable companies in the world by 2027.

Their projections exceed $APPL and $GOOGL, both ~$4T companies in operating profit.

For reference, Samsung is valued at ~$820B and SK Hynix is valued https://t.co/uW629DkHr3