Summary: Long Enplas at ~$985M market cap: dominant MLA supplier for photonics (1.6T/3.2T) + oligopoly IC test socket supplier for AI chip testing, strong balance sheet with net cash.

Enplas (6961) at ~$985M seems kinda interesting.

They hold two chokepoints:

1. Dominant supplier for MLAs (micro lens arrays). Eg. SiPH switches, 1.6T, 3.2T for photonics.

2. Oligopoly supplier for IC Test sockets (AI Chip Testing)

Cash on hand: ~$155M, no debt.  Equity-to-Asset Ratio: ~89% (50%+ usually is solid), so low downside risk imo.

And their speculated customers:

1, Photonics (MLAs): Highly probable: Innolight, Eoptolink, Furukawa, Intel (SiPh). And prob $COHR, $LITE.

2. GPU/ASICs (Test Sockets): prob $TSM, ASE, types use these to likely test $NVDA GPUs, $GOOGL TPUs (Google Ironwood is highly probable).

"expanding mass production orders for major GPU manufacturers, and for ASIC-related projects for hyperscalers."

Then at OFC:

OFC: “We will be showcasing our new products for 800Gbps and 1.6Tbps transceivers and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) that support today’s rapid technological advancements in AI.”

Basically you have a company that supplies T1 semis, foundries, hyperscalers, that benefits from 1.6T from MLA photonics segment + CPO TAM expansion later from OFC products.

Was one my positions wanted to share my thoughts about since it seemed p cool at sub <$1B MC.


Summary: Bullish SIVE as Apple's InP laser array supplier for 50M+/yr consumer hardware; tailwind also for AAPL and GOOGL as adopters.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

The secret is that $AAPL 🍎 is using $SIVE InP laser arrays for mass production of consumer hardware (high confidence).

Launch date around late H2 2027 from estimates and the graph provided.

Imagine Apple mass producing consumer hardware with 50M+/units a year…

Off a $850m MC laser supplier lol.

Then with whatever Apple does, you’ll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next.

@SiversSemicond @aleabitoreddit a bit cryptic, thoughts?


you'll get $GOOGL, Samsung, and the others following along next

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: SIVE seen as highest upside (next LITE, potential 20x+); Foci/Shunsin expected to 3-4x on structural re-rating from FAU/component/packaging demand.

Foci Taiwan CPO; retrying .TWO for Taipei OTC listing

$SIVE is highest possible upside, since I see them being the next $LITE (which started at ~$2.6B as well in 2024, but now is $80B).

As laser chokepoints are known to downstream TAM expand, then vertically integrate assembly/fabs after.

Foci/Shunsin I kinda expect to 3-4x.

They're more structural re-rating from FAU/component revenue growth... or just more demand on packaging/test. But hard to see them going up 20x.

@aleabitoreddit At these levels where do you see more upside SIVE or plays like Foci and Shunsin


Shunsin Technology listed on TWSE as 6451.TW


I think it's with the shot of investing in $LITE at the start

Summary: Bullish LITE: competent management, photonics supercycle tailwind, hedge fund attention helping escape small-cap obscurity.

We’ve just seen $LITE pull off this exact same playbook and go up 3600%+...

You don’t need to reinvent the wheel.

I actually think management is competent and they’ve gone down the right path with the resources they had (eg. Nondilutive grants, Win semi fabless, etc.)

Then they attempted photonics spinoff in 2024-Feb 2025, but didn’t work because that was before photonics had a super cycle.

But I think the recent attention may have helped them escape the valley of doom in small cap Sweden, lot of hedge funds are researching them now.

So I think it’s with the shot of investing in $LITE at the start.

@aleabitoreddit It sounds to me you need a very competent management team to pull this off… I’m long SIVE but I’m not sure if they have experienced enough leadership to execute all of these? Or perhaps once institution gets in to guide them?


I'd expect that number to just keep on compounding exponentially as we approach H2 2027, which is the true inflection of scale up CPO

Summary: Bullish on co-packaged optics (CPO) space: 77% growth is just the start, compounding exponentially into H2 2027 inflection.

@RyanU_1F42B This is 77% growth, from literally the start of the CPO supercycle H1 2026.

I’d expect that number to just keep on compounding exponentially as we approach H2 2027, which is the true inflection of scale up CPO.

@aleabitoreddit Very true, I did like hearing about the ratio of photonics to wireless and their invitation to continue with their US Gov contracts as well…seems like they are well diversified for the buildout..and yea 77% is just the start 🤯


Summary: Extremely bullish on SIVEF long term, citing Goldman Sachs CPO demand growth trajectory.

@TR7016 Extremely bullish on $SIVEF, especially long term.

If you look at Goldman Sach’s report on CPO it’s just a massive vertical line up over the next few years.

@aleabitoreddit Are u still bullish for sivef longterm or has it already run ?


Summary: Bullish on AMD and its named Taiwan supply-chain partners (ASX, SPIL, Sanmina, Wiwynn, Wistron, Inventec) on AMD's $10B+ Taiwan ecosystem investment.

Just as I say this:

$AMD invests $10B+ into Taiwan ecosystem (for securing capacity/scaling infra)

AMD is collaborating with $ASX and SPIL.

As well as ODM partners like “ $SANM, Wiwynn (6669), Wistron (3231) and Inventec (2356).

PTI, Unimicron, AIC, Nan Ya PCB, and Kinsus were also name dropped as direct beneficiaries.

And of course second order beneficiaries  like Foci or MSScorps also benefit.

But bullish on Taiwan supply chains all around from $AMD news.

Just in case you want to frontrun the next major catalyst:

$NVDA June 1 Computex/GTC Taipei keynote should be heavily bullish Taiwan optical ecosystem?

Just like when I went long on $TSEM and others in Nvidia’s US event.

Shunsin, Foci, Nextronics, MSScorps, and a lot of my https://t.co/Ko8kpvJsCz


Context: AMD collaborating with ASX (ASE Technology ADR)


ODM partners like $SANM, Wiwynn (6669), Wistron (3231) and Inventec (2356)


Summary: Currently focused on CPO/silicon photonics plays including SOI and TSEM.

정말 재미있게 읽었습니다. 공유해 주셔서 감사합니다!

최근 이슈들에 대한 내용은 대부분 정확하네요! 저는 요즘 $SOI나 $TSEM 등을 포함한 CPO(공동 패키지 광학)/실리콘 포토닉스 분야에 확실하게 집중하고 있습니다.

몇 가지 사소한 정정을 하자면, 5억~10억 달러($500m - $1B) 규모의 수치는 $SIVE 가 아니라 셀레스티얼(Celestial)에 해당하는 내용인 것 같습니다. 그래도 흥미롭게 잘 읽었습니다.


Summary: Bullish SIVE as the likely CPO laser light source in GFS's SCALE ecosystem, powering hyperscaler buildouts via AMD and others; also bullish GFS on SCALE announcement.

Yes, markets might have missed this with $SIVE + $GFS SCALE.

The inclusion of $SIVE as 1 of 2 public laser suppliers in $GFS ecosystem image presentation is a highly bullish indicator for Sivers.

Whenever semis like $AMD (using $GFS for CPO), builds their optical solutions with GlobalFoundries.

Sivers is the likely light source for their buildout and powers companies like $AMD -> Hyperscalers.

The hyperscaler buildout with CPO flows down to this tiny $1.7B MC laser light source in $SIVE.

@aleabitoreddit Today GFS announced its SCALE™ solution, and went up 4.3%. This is bullish for $SIVE.


Summary: Added to Shunsin position after exit from Taiwan disposition measures.

@Rumbourbon23 Yes, Shunsin is now out of disposition. I added some more positions today.

@aleabitoreddit Good news is that they should soon be available to buy soon! They were in Taiwanese “stock jail” (disposition measures) from 4/20 to 5/4 because it got too hot. Buy/sell only every 20 mins with limited liquidity.


Summary: 10x upside target for AEHR over 3 years.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

@Ud197601 $AEHR looks like a 10x in 3 years.

@aleabitoreddit How do you get feel AEHR potential mcap targets


$SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver... Sivers being on the precipice of mass production for 2027

Summary: Bullish SIVE as sole-source laser supplier to JBL 1.6T LRO, Ayar, AEVA, POET; volume ramp imminent into 2027.

Sivers Semiconductors on Nasdaq Stockholm as SIVE.ST

$JBL literally announced in their fireside chat…

Mass production of their 1.6T LRO with excessive demand in 3-10 months.

$SIVE is likely sole source laser supplier for this specific optical transceiver.

Ayar raised $500M for volume ramp recently, and $SIVE is the primary / sole source laser supplier.

2025 annual report, $SIVE signaled start of volume ramp with both (likely) $AEVA and $POET.

This is how you do supply chain mapping on qualification cycles.

Anything they make, Sivers makes revenue off lasers.

If you ask AI they will keep confidently citing 2024 revenue numbers without knowing volume hints.

Which is why I keep seeing these false claims like this over and over, despite Sivers being on the precipice of mass production for 2027.

@aleabitoreddit Why haven’t there been contract announcements or an update of expansion etc?
How are you certain that revenue is due imminently?


Summary: Long HPS.A and LITE on multi-year bottleneck visibility; bearish SNDK as a meme stock.

Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn’t a meme stock at this point.

But as I’ve said, bottlenecks with multi-year visibility like $HPS.A or $LITE tend to perform better. https://t.co/WkjoG1jIYu

The nice thing about multi-year bottlenecks from:

$HPS.A to $SNDK to $LITE

Is that you can sleep a easier despite market volatility like today.

Knowing demand will be extreme even 1 year...

Even if Trump wants to nuke Bikini Bottom and other companies might be more https://t.co/pw1VCxNY2p


Nobody can convince me $SNDK isn't a meme stock at this point


Summary: Long NBIS as a future hyperscaler (multi-year compounder); avoid IREN as a low-quality name unworthy of the same conviction.

Not sure if people realized this but unless a thesis completely breaks, companies like $NBIS can keep growing.

Just look at $AMZN or $GOOGL over the past 15 years.

If people "trim" it often triggers taxes. And a lot of corrections are typically less than those taxes paid.

By the time a "50% crash happens", it's probably already compounded hundreds of even thousands of percent.

If people need to pay expenses, once you hit 7-8-9 figures, you can always borrow against those assets and keep letting them appreciate.

NFA, just personal opinion. You all do you, but it's highly, highly, dependent on the companies you pick.

Can't do this with something trash like $IREN. But I do believe $NBIS is positioned to be the next hyperscaler.

@aleabitoreddit $NBIS You gave me NBIS at 80 i made my biggest position on it like 100k i know you said its for you an 2-5 year play i dont know if i should trim now or hold . Thank you for this❤ what is your way for NBIS ?


Can't do this with something trash like $IREN


Summary: Long MSSCorp to frontrun CPO supercycle ramping 2027; long Auros on SK Hynix/Samsung qualification ahead of H2 volume ramp.

MSSCorp (6830) TWSE-listed CPO yields inspection company

MSSCorp is a CPO names... CPO really starts to ramp up in 2027.

You don't really have any volume H1 2026, so there's probably going to be volatility up until then. But I think the time wait is compelling enough to frontrun one of the largest supercycles at the very start.

As for Auros, they supply to Sk Hynix/Samsung and are qualifying their products. My thesis was mainly about waiting for volume ramp sometime to hit H2.

@aleabitoreddit Thought on MSScorps and Auros? Still going for 3X in these short period?


My thesis was mainly about waiting for volume ramp sometime to hit H2

Auros Korean equity 322310; retrying KOSDAQ .KQ suffix


Summary: Bullish INTC on semi earnings tailwinds, Made-in-America theme, CPU bottlenecks, and Intel Foundry ramp.

Holy **** $INTC.

Semi earnings, Made in America, CPU bottlenecks, and Intel Foundry go brrr. https://t.co/st3D8wfsFi


Summary: Expects Win Semi to compound steadily via TAM expansion and optical revenue acceleration.

Win Semi Taiwan foundry; retrying .TWO OTC market suffix

@Ren_aramb There’s probably no rush. I expect Win Semi to be a slower compound growth company like $TSEM that benefits from both TAM expansion and revenue acceleration from optical.

@aleabitoreddit First! (Jk…jk…) https://t.co/2DWx0LzfOS


Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long.

Summary: Long Hammond Power Solutions at 184 CAD; dominant transformer/switchgear supplier to AI data centers, 122% Y/Y backlog growth, cheap fwd P/E with margin expansion and capacity coming online Q2 2026.

Hammond Power Solutions trades on TSX; ~2.2B CAD

The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear.

Trade Idea: Long Hammond  (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD.

They dominate the market for:

-Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market),

-serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck)

-and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck)

I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation.

You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”…

Then you go further:

“To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers”

Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US?

Hammond

Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart:

“Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”.

Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know?

Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers")

Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry).

The most compelling signal:

-> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD.

Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog.

Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD.

Also:

“Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now.

Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike.

Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp.

But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition.

Regardless still looks cheap.

Just a TLDR:

$AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear.

Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online.

I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long.

Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.


Summary: SIVE identified as likely Apple silicon photonics supplier with 50M unit RFQ matching Apple Watch scale; author sees undiscovered alpha ahead of H2 2027–H1 2028 ramp.

It's pretty clear by now that $SIVE is the likely holy grail silicon photonics supplier for $AAPL...

Markets just don't know about it (this is called Alpha).

If you're curious how to map Apple to Sivers:

> "US Fortune 100" customer.
> RFQ (request for quote) for 50 MILLION units a year.
> Apple sold roughly 53.9 million Apple Watches in 2022 and averages between 38m-50m units annually
> $SIVE / Carnegie research released 135 Wavelength arechitectures, which matches Apple application specifications.

literally... what other US Fortune 100 company in world can casually produce 50 million units of consumer wearables a year? Even Samsung does 10-15M units.

That coincidentally matches with the laser architecture and applications.

$SIVE on their X did tease volume ramp from development timelines, which I guessed was Apple (H2 2027 ramp or H1 2028), but could be Ayar or Jabil.

@aleabitoreddit We might be so early if Apple is really that customer 🫠🫠


Summary: Bearish INTU on AI tax-filing disruption; bullish RDDT and SNAP on AI-driven opex cuts boosting profitability.

It's nuanced, I do think companies like $INTU are going to get slightly disrupted by Claude and others doing taxes + filing for you. And it's not a great contrarian buy-the-dip opportunity.

On the flip side certain software names like $RDDT / $SNAP are likely going to end up more profitable with AI due to opex cuts (only if Evan's wife stopped using Snapchat like a piggy back).

Disruption is real, but there's a few winners.

@aleabitoreddit Everyone on X is talking about how oversold SaaS stocks are right now. Any thoughts? What would be your best long plays for 2026?


certain software names like $RDDT / $SNAP are likely going to end up more profitable with AI due to opex cuts


Summary: Holds long positions in both SIVE and Win Semiconductor; Win's foundry ties to AVGO/SpaceX/hyperscalers de-risk SIVE's volume ramp.

@Sopcaja No, because $SIVE volume ramp is de-risked by Win Semi, my other long.

Win is the foundry for $AVGO and existing SpaceX/Hyperscaler supply chains, so it's heavily dependable.

@aleabitoreddit While the thesis is compelling,  do you not fear execution risk at this scale ?


Summary: Long RDDT: compelling non-AI name with fast growth and true profitability; puzzled by underperformance.

I still think $RDDT is one of the few non-AI names that is extremely compelling.

Just by how fast they’re growing + true profitability post-earnings.

Honestly still not sure why they’re underperforming the market… https://t.co/C9T3qbc8vZ


Summary: Bullish Win Semiconductors on a hard re-rating over the next two years, analogous to TSEM's re-rating.

Win Semiconductors Taiwan foundry; retrying .TWO suffix

@norriswalker Claude is right, Win does slap.

I think Win can pull a $TSEM and get re-rated rlly hard over next two years

@aleabitoreddit 0.16 peg ratio
Did some Claude research on it - actually slaps as the worlds largest GaAs pure play foundry for non silicon conductors.

I'm in.


Summary: Bullish Riber (MBE duopolist) as a quantum computing capex play on apparent Microsoft Quantum adoption; VECO named as duopoly partner.

Riber SA listed on Euronext Paris as ALRIB.PA

$MSFT looks like a secret buyer of Riber
< $ALRIB > for Microsoft Quantum.

The broader market and algorithms likely don’t know this connection yet.

MBEs are important for quantum computing, quantum dot lasers, VCSELs, and silicon photonics.

But the long-term implications are sizable if Microsoft Quantum:

-> Are starting to buy from this European equipment manufacturer

Quantum is still very early and risks to early stage industries are material.

But since this company looks like an $AIXA for Quantum and trades at a profitable  ~27x est. forward P/E, as a duopoly for MBE with $VECO, it looks interesting.

From open LinkedIn intelligence, having a US hyperscaler use Riber MBE equipment to fab frontier quantum chips.

At the very least helps validate the company’s importance as a technology.

And makes it appear well positioned to capture quantum computing and quantum dot capex cycles in the near future.


as a duopoly for MBE with $VECO, it looks interesting


Summary: Extremely bullish SIVE on CW laser bottleneck position, Win Semi capacity lock-in, hyperscaler pluggable TAM expansion, and H2 volume production ramp; AEVA and NOK flagged as beneficiaries.

$SIVE 2025 annual report analysis.

TLDR: Extremely Bullish.

Sivers main growth vector is CPO, but they've TAM expansioned to pluggable transcivers + multiple new qualifications/development.

1. "We are currently seeing great interest...  testing our DFB lasers across multiple manufacturers in pluggable transceivers"

For pluggable angle, we've seen this with $JBL 1.6T LRO already, but annual report hinted they're developing/qualifying with more hyperscaler suppliers.

"Our serviceable markets have now been expanded to include pluggable optical interconnects as well as scale-up and scale-out architectures for co-packaged" (TAM expansion)

2. "Discussions with hyperscalers and pluggable transceiver suppliers indicate a shortage of CW lasers in the coming years"

$LITE already signaled CW laser bottlenecks, and they had to buy externally from competitors. So we kinda guessed CW Laser was a bottleneck.

And this confirmed it, so was wondering about Win semi.

"The partnership announced with high-volume supplier Win Semiconductor in March 2025 now gives us a strong position to meet growing demand"

$SIVE likely has capacity locked in with Win from this nuance, which is exactly what I wanted to know.

This positions Sivers in the CW laser as both a bottleneck and CPO laser architectural leader.

VOLUME PRODUCTION H2 INDICATIONS (BULLISH):

3. "The collaboration positions both companies to address the rapidly growing market for optical AI connectivity, with prototypes to be demonstrated to customers during the first half of 2026 and with the goal of scaling up production by the end of 2026"

H1 is more preproduction, H2 production signaled starting with names like $POET.

4. "We are pleased that our largest LIDAR customer will increase production starting in the fourth quarter of 2026"

$AEVA start of volume production Q4 with $SIVE = bullish for both.

Revenue floor from LIDAR as their CPO scales.

5. Sivers announced a partnership with LIGHTIUM AG to integrate their CW lasers directly onto TFLN wafers. 3.2T+ cycle. (future proofing)

FYI no decent investor cares about last year's 2025 financials from development contracts aside from Swedish Media/Locals.

Especially when you're forward looking for the 2027-2028 CPO supercycle.

But the hint from you can take away from financials + geography that is $NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE.

TLDR:

-> Win Semi implied capacity lock in during CW laser bottleneck
-> Hints of new group of hyperscaler suppliers testing/qualification for pluggable transcivers, which is massive TAM expansion.
-> New customers for CW lasers
-> Volume production scaling starting H2 for both photonics and lidar.


$NOK is now the high confidence customer of $SIVE


Summary: Long AXTI and SNDK as multi-year supply chokepoints in the current supercycle.

These are chokepoints over multiple year supercycles not bottlenecks.

$AXTI, $SNDK fit the definition of a bottleneck.

But stuff like glass core or dfb lasers should scale past 2028 and this is the beginning of the next volume ramp from architectural shifts in photonics or advanced packaging.

@aleabitoreddit When identifying bottlenecks, what time horizon do you usually focus on, 1 year, 2 years, or longer?


Summary: CPO is an unpriced TAM expansion for photonics; bullish LITE, SIVE, and SOI as new beneficiaries of the architectural shift.

$LITE was priced in for EML and current pluggable optical transceivers.

CPO is a completely new opportunity and massive TAM expansion for all photonics players.

It's a massive architectural shift, and completely new optical companies benefit like $SIVE or $SOI that didn't as much before.

@aleabitoreddit $LITE: If you say that this still isn’t priced in, then why has the stock risen by nearly 300 percent over the last six months?


Summary: Holding INTC, RKLB, and NBIS long-term through 2029; letting positions compound rather than rotating.

@realstockfox Yep, I'm pretty sure $INTC, $RKLB, and $NBIS will be around in 2029...

Don't need to keep entering new/different US positions, just let the ones you have compound over time.

@aleabitoreddit Let the winners win, as they say.


Summary: RDDT is the most compelling large-cap software/social media name; bullish stance.

@Rumbourbon23 There's nothing more compelling in the larger cap software/social media bucket than $RDDT

@aleabitoreddit 91.5% gross margin. 7th consecutive quarter of 60% sales growth. Just WOW.

I even added before and after the earnings calls. Really think I don’t own enough 🤣


It's highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.

Summary: Bullish on SIVE as a ~$300M undervalued photonics disruptor supplying WDM DFB arrays to hyperscalers, and Win Semi (3105.TWO) as its foundry; JBL named as next-step in supply chain.

You cant spell Winner without Win.

Because of that: I’m bullish on $SIVE supply chain.

$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow.

If you compare to $LITE and others that’s also in the same CPO CW WDM space.

There’s a reason why:

-> $POET / $MRVL Celestial.
-> Ayar / $JBL and O-Net use $SIVE.

It’s designed in as the light source for the next-gen photonics architecture for hyperscalers.

At a ~$300M valuation.

And I do think WDM DFB arrays are the superior architecture for scale up. And are incredibly hard to develop.

It's not a zero-sum architectural game and will likely be split with how you handle scale out with single emitters like $LITE and $COHR.

As well as captive suppliers like $MRVL and how they design their architectures.

But if you look at the MC difference (~$300m with $SIVE, $55B with $LITE).

Anyone can see how clear how valuable the $330M incoming disruptor in $SIVE is to the photonics space.

And especially with the $4B foundry in Win Semi that captures fabless laser production from $SIVE, $AVGO, $MTSI and other players at scale.

It’s highly asymmetrical to long both the supply chain as exposure to where photonics and hyperscalers architecture are heading.

I am long Win Semi (3105.TWO) at $4.1B MC.

I believe markets are sleeping on of the most important foundries in the world (aside from $TSM).

IMO their strategic positioning exceeds far beyond $4B MC.

They sit in almost every major chokepoints:

-> In the SpaceX Starlink LEO https://t.co/xNxc1f9nuh


$SIVE -> WIN (TPE:3105) -> Ayar SuperNova -> $JBL -> Hyperscalers, as one flow.


FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure… I'm very confident about this theme directionally over time… over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated

Summary: Long FOCI as a pure-play CPO name: leading FAU/optical supplier for NVDA/TSM with up to 50% share, as CPO TAM grows from near-zero to $91B in 2 years.

FOCI fiber optics Taiwan; retrying TWO (OTC market) suffix

FOCI (3363) is looks extremely compelling around now at ~$3.35B MC for CPO exposure.

1. $TSM COUPE advanced packaging director hinted that FAU supplies by FOCI be a pretty big bottleneck for mass production.

2. Leading supplier for $NVDA and $TSM expected with up to 50% market share from Morgan Stanley note.

3. $HIMX signaled record demand and that Foci should scale up capacity (meaning high medium term demand visibility)

4. FAU and optical components make a large % of CPO related BOM from Goldman Sachs research note.

5. Overarching CPO tam basically goes from near 0 to $91B in the next two years from the GS note.

I’m very confident about this theme directionally over time (NFA), despite any recent market volatility.

Risks include getting designed out for later generations.

But over the next 1-2 years, I think it has high potential to be re-rated compared to other names but might need to be actively monitored.

Just throwing out ideas over long positions I hold, for more purer play CPO exposure.


Summary: Bullish SIVE on Apple Watch laser revenue (~50M units/year); LITE cited as the comparable.

@piyush1337 Yeah $SIVE is like a mini $LITE.

$AAPL Watch if/when it gets released is likely going to massive for Sivers revenue given they do ~50M units/year.

@aleabitoreddit I also did my deep research yesterday on photonics as a whole..got to know that LITE's first customer after their rebirth was Apple..so now I understand why you are so convinced that apple is the SIVE's new customer for lasers


Summary: Expects Shunsin to 3x, on a slower timeline than 1 year.

@yuntungshieh Shunsin I expect to 3x as well, just on a slower timeframe.

@aleabitoreddit I expect ShunSin to be on the list as well! For 1 year timeframe


Amazon's robotics program have the simplest route for mass production since each one they make internally lowers opex, cuts headcount, and improves profitability

Summary: Bullish AMZN robotics as simplest mass-production path; bullish Nextronics (8147.T) as undiscovered supplier that scales with Amazon.

Now that I think about it more…

Nextronics (8147) is a pretty undiscovered supplier to robotics supply chains like $AMZN too.

So as Amazon scales up, so does their revenue (it’s only ~$200m mc so it should be material if they’re hitting 38-40% gross margins).

I was only focusing on $NVDA CPO supply chains as their largest growth vector earlier.

But I do think Amazon’s robotics program have the simplest route for mass production since each one they make internally lowers opex, cuts headcount, and improves profitability.

And their whole ecosystem should benefit.

@Dog_Ziller I actually think $AMZN for robotics is extremely underrated.

Since since there’s immediate practical upside to lower opex + headcount for automation.

But for general purpose $TSLA, Unitree, Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agibot, Agility, and others should do well.


Summary: Bullish AAOI on largest projected 1.6T US capacity from laser fab to assembly; compares to early SNDK trajectory.

@Market_Nick_ $AAOI does look like an early $SNDK.

Largely dependent on execution, but the fact they project they'll have the largest 1.6T capacity in the US from projections (from inp laser fab to assembly), is pretty bullish.

@aleabitoreddit I can see $AAOI pull a $SNDK type move


Summary: SIVE has potential to reach $10B+ market cap like MTSI or LITE over 2-3 years; implicitly bullish on all three.

@CryptoGuru365 I think $SIVE has the potential to be a $10B+ laser company like $MTSI or $LITE

@aleabitoreddit Price target in the next 2-3 years in your opinion?


Summary: Hyperscaler deal conversions expected in coming months will likely force short-side derisking, creating buying pressure in FLNC.

@pennycheck Yeah not sure why many funds like directionality shorting US energy companies...

Having 2 hyperscaler deals convert sometime in the next few months with unknown figures is probably scary for them. Would probably make them derisk $FLNC over time, adding to buying pressure.

@aleabitoreddit this could get painful for some https://t.co/JNFcMGi2z0


there's one relatively small 2B+ CAD company with a very large market share

Summary: Bullish on a ~2B CAD Canadian transformer company as the single beneficiary of the hyperscaler scramble amid 2–5Y transformer supply bottlenecks.

Hammond Power Solutions ~2B CAD Canadian transformer maker

@clarity_99X Yeah there’s a pretty big transformers bottleneck right now ~2Y for one type and 3-5Y for the others.

Hyperscalers are kinda scrambling abroad for them, and it just so happens there’s one relatively small 2B+ CAD company with a very large market share. https://t.co/qUZ4TsWOys

@aleabitoreddit I just saw this on the news 3 days ago.. crazy you covered it so quick https://t.co/ABgLKq15t9


Summary: Long TOWA: big-3 memory capex increases + HBM4 buildout flow upstream to Towa.

TOWA Corp listed on TSE as 6315.T (HBM compression molding)

$TOWA biggest signal is SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung since this is upstream... and the big 3 increased capex projections + building out HMB4 so that capex does flow to Towa.

MSSCORP more nuanced. This is for CPO, which is not volume ramped yet... You'd probably want to look at like $ASX and other signals.

But they all get derived mainly from hyperscaler capex as an overarching umbrella, which was largely bullish today.

@aleabitoreddit $TOWA and $MssCorp go brrr!


Summary: Prefer direct long SK Hynix over SK Square; avoids holding-co discount with no arbitrage mechanism.

Not a fan of SK Square. Holding companies trade under NAV for a reason since there's no good way to force an arbitrage on their assets.

That's exactly why Grayscale holdings and others were traded under NAV of their crypto assets in the past.

Better to just long Sk Hynix itself.

@aleabitoreddit Thoughts on SK Square (ticker $402340)? Holding company that owns ~20% of SK Hynix. Seems very discounted considering their ownership is worth a lot more than the company itself?


Not a fan of SK Square. Holding companies trade under NAV for a reason since there's no good way to force an arbitrage on their assets.


they said they're expecting significant near term volume from one of the hyperscalers (this part is bullish) This is not reflected in current financial statements but in next quarter earnings

Summary: Bullish AEHR next quarter on expected significant volume ramp from a hyperscaler, not yet in current financials.

It’s nuanced. If you look at current numbers alone, it’s not bullish because $AEHR is currently in their qualification cycles.

It’s all about volume ramp, and they said they’re expecting significant near term volume from one of the hyperscalers (this part is bullish)

This is not reflected in current financial statements but in next quarter earnings.

@aleabitoreddit So you feel positive on that results because I'm confused 🤔


Summary: Bullish SIVE as validated laser supplier in GFS/AMD CPO ecosystem ahead of 1.6T/CPO inflection; Swedish media criticism dismissed as non-technical meme labeling.

I'm genuinely laughing. This is gotta be the funniest headline I've seen to date since $RPI.

You have non-technical journalists in Sweden, with no understanding of semiconductors/photonics.

Doing an analysis on $SIVE and telling all the locals (who hold majority) to sell, because it's a "meme".

Don't understand hyperscaler qualification cycles from upcoming $JBL 1.6T or $MRVL CPO ramp?

Or the fact they just got validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand?

> Must be a meme. It's only possible to value a company based on TTM 2025 balance sheets and old revenue projections right?

At least this volatility helps transfer control over to US investors/institutions before CPO/1.6T inflection point next year.

Just 1 month ago, journalists and media tried downplaying my $SOI and $RPI thesis.

As “meme stocks that were set to crash” citing my WSB tag without analyzing the underlying thesis.

They’re both up 100% and held their gains.

Same is happening to companies like $SIVE.

I never https://t.co/skDvrU0ZJQ


validated as the laser supplier in $GFS ecosystem with $AMD driving new CPO demand


Summary: Bullish AAOI on material TAM increase from optical transceiver projections, disagrees with bearish consensus.

Great callout on $HIMX and now down -31.54% (accelerated by macro).

This is a good lesson around chokepoints.

They missed two things on this "Meme Stock":

- Chokepoints can be designed out.
- Chokepoint may not be material enough to translate into revenue like $AXTI.

$AAOI on the other hand, has material TAM increase if you look at optical transciever projections that they've been bearish on.

Largely disagreed with a large number of photonics picks (eg. calling for $POET at 7x the valuation over $SIVE the laser supplier).

Or being bearish on $AAOI without looking at optionality + revenue ramp in a massive TAM.

But we'll see who's right or wrong in a years time, most of the recent drop across the board was accelerated by macro (not whether a $SIVE or $HIMX thesis was wrong).

But very interesting to see chip designers go the other way of plays mentioned by analysts.

$HIMX -31.54% since I published my analysis rebutting the @citrini / @hntrbrkmedia report.

The thesis was simple:
- Himax's microlens monopoly for TSMC COUPE Gen 1 & Gen 2? Real.
- The market treating it as an unbreakable moat? Wrong.

1. My full patent-by-patent breakdown: https://t.co/eALFIxVtmF


if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028... Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long

Summary: Dip in photonics names seen as repositioning opportunity; bullish LITE, COHR (sold out to 2028), SIVE (CW lasers, $340M MC), and AXTI (substrate bottleneck).

Photonics are not having a fun time.

Laser Companies from:
$LITE, $SIVE, $COHR, $MTSI, $AAOI all down.

Substrate, Foundries, and Epiwafer from:
$IQE, $AXTI, $SOI, $TSEM all down.

Almost everything is red.

From 6% on lower beta like Coherent all the way to to 22%.

Good lesson to learn:

Embrace the volatility and don't use leverage.

If a name can go up 25% in a day, it can also drop 20% today.

Macro-driven liquidity vacuums and stop losses cause pretty violent swings.

However, if companies like $LITE and $COHR are sold out until 2028...

Or if you know $SIVE is coming next for CW lasers at a ~$340M MC and $AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates.

Crashes like these from Macro are often a way to exchange hands for those who can reposition long.


$AXTI will become a bottleneck for substrates


It's hard to see the stock appreciating much in value when $6,000,000,000 of structural dilution works against you in every rally. Better to wait after current shareholders get diluted first before going long.

Summary: Bearish IREN: $6B ATM dilution destroys rallies and GW moat is gone; bullish NBIS on hyperscaler deals and NVDA backing as the differentiated alternative.

It still baffles me how people are still “Buying the Dip” on $IREN.

Amid their $6,000,0000,000 ATM, diluted and sold into the open market.

Thinking that it will increase their share price.

While $NBIS was able to differentiate themselves and secure more hyperscaler deals + $NVDA backing.

$IREN GW raw asset moat they had two years ago is now almost gone.

It’s hard to see the stock appreciating much in value when $6,000,000,000 of structural dilution works against you in every rally.

Better to wait after current shareholders get diluted first before going long.


$NBIS was able to differentiate themselves and secure more hyperscaler deals + $NVDA backing


Summary: Bearish IREN: no NVDA funding means dilutive capital raises needed to fund GPU purchases for 5 GW build-out.

@LMutaaya People were saying "WERE YOU KIDDING" when I posted I was bearish on $IREN at $71.

$NVDA isn't giving them any funding, so they need to raise elsewhere to buy GPUs for their 5 GW capacity.

Convertible notes is actually a lot better way to go than ATMs though.

@aleabitoreddit Let me also leave this here https://t.co/nukvBpiTVY


Summary: Bullish photonics supercycle; 50%+ upside still in LITE/COHR, transitional bridge plays AAOI/JBL, and early-stage CPO/quantum-dot names AXTI, POET, ALMU.

It's highly nuanced, and I'll explain why it's not late, but late to some:

Photonics is the newest supercycle (maybe H1 into H2 2025 was the start).

Then there's many different architectural changes in each supercycle:

-> $LITE, $COHR, Innolight, $AXTI and these names led the first

I did a thesis post on mentioning all four of them as the largest beneficiaries (all are up 500-1000% 1Y)

-> $AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge (eg. 1.6T pluggable)

-> $SIVE, Celestial, Ayar, $POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now)

-> VisEra, QD Laser, $ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years.

Of course, $LITE does everything. $AXTI will be used for everything.

But the amount of pure play exposure for each architectural shift in each mini supercycle is different.

For example, inp usage with quantum dot is still there, but less used. Or DFB laser arrays for CPO instead of EML.

There's probably still 50%+ with $LITE and $COHR. And you're a little on the "late" side of things.

But you're extremely early to new architecture generations.

What I'm trying to do is point regular retail investors into the direction of new gold mines for free.

Before institutions figure out sooner or later by paying $20k for equity research reports.

@aleabitoreddit Missed the opportunity to make money by investing in photonics. Do you think there is 50% upside from here?


$AAOI, $JBL and others types of names are benefit immensely as the transitional bridge


$POET are others future gens eg. CPO (what I'm focusing on now)

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ


$ALMU and others are likely going to be future gens (quantum dot, different packaging types, etc) if you fast forward 4 years


Summary: Author holds a long position across JBL, GOOGL, MRVL, GFS, AMD with NVDA CPO investment as additional catalyst stack.

It's legit coincidence that it's catalyst ( $JBL ) after catalyst (Nasdaq listing) after catalyst ( $GOOGL + $MRVL ), after catalyst ( $GFS ),  after catalyst ( $GFS + $AMD ).

Alongside $NVDA investing into CPO everywhere.

I just timed my long after OFC but did not expect all of this lol.

@aleabitoreddit Good find, I love how you are able to find the greatest links and make connections to existing supply chain!


catalyst ( $GOOGL + $MRVL ), after catalyst ( $GFS ), after catalyst ( $GFS + $AMD )


after catalyst ( $GFS ), after catalyst ( $GFS + $AMD )


Summary: SIVE and COHR named as beneficiaries of LITE being forced to source CW lasers externally due to EML contracts through 2027-2028.

This is new information discovery that $LITE is forced to buy CW lasers from external competitors.

Likely because they have EML contracted from 2027-2028 and can't produce enough CW...

So $SIVE is a massive beneficiary of other hyperscaler suppliers going to other CW laser suppliers + the big ones in Asia like Sumitomo + $COHR.

We'll see if markets can put 1+1 together.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting to see how SIVE will react to the earnings of LITE today 🧐


my long term opinion doesn't change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others

Summary: Reaffirms unchanged long-term long theses on MRVL, AMD, ARM, LITE, NBIS, and AXTI despite short-term entry-point adjustments.

Wow, majority of these 30 stocks I’ve liked are up a lot in just two weeks (just a recap to new folks)

By the way, my long term opinion doesn’t change on any of them from $MRVL, $AMD, $ARM and others.

Short term entry points do though with names like $AAOI to $AEHR. And they make the difference between +10-20%.

I focus a lot about the “undiscovered” ones like Riber or $SIVE or $RPI or $IQE in analysis when I make a new entry -> wait for it to play out.

But the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same.

And I don’t need to post that same thesis multiple times, since it’s not new anymore.

But the reason they’re not new is because markets have validated the thesis and are repricing the stocks live because of them.

Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why:

1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security
2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count
3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai
4. $COHR - They


the same thesis around $LITE or $NBIS or $AXTI from last year is still the same


Summary: Bullish RKLB and AMD: sentiment-driven skepticism creates early-entry opportunities before eventual validation; waiting costs upside.

You had the media/banks/analysts going after $RKLB because everyone thought they couldn't compete against SpaceX.

Then you have the media going against $AMD because they couldn't compete against $INTC (and now $NVDA).

They were genuinely the leaders in the space, as seen with Rocketlab success with their small reusable rockets.

But it's hard to find because sentiment is always going against these small players until they get "validated".

By the time they do, you miss out on all the upside.

@aleabitoreddit Just follow the leader boys


Summary: Bullish US semi supply chain sector next quarter on massive hyperscaler capex ramp from META, MSFT, AMZN.

I've monitored the situation for you.

TLDR on hyperscaler capex spend (signal aside from $TSM).

From $MSFT, $AMZN, $META earnings:

Upstream semi supply chains go brrr.

$META: 2026 FY capex $115-$135B
Revised Q1 ER: $125B-$145B capex raised.

-> Higher component prices (price hikes)
-> Aggressive AI infra spending
-> Custom Model Training

$MSFT: was actually $31.9B vs ($35.29B) but due to supply chain bottlenecks, rather than lack of resources.

Still waiting for confirmation around $AMZN but their original capex projection was ~$200B from Jassy's note earlier this year.

So you can sleep easy, all the semi supply chain names still likely to keep going brr next quarter, since there's so much capex funneled into them.

Then you get the new fed chair who is gung-ho all in on AI + rate cuts, with Jerome keeping stuff chill in the back (which markets probably like)


Summary: Bullish AXTI; institutions driving valuation, retail shorts risk being badly wrong, vertical integration and substrate scarcity support upside.

It’s majority institutions moving $AXTI at these valuations, retail shorts might turn out terribly wrong.

If AXT goes down from export controls the photonics buildout does too. (Eg. AXT -> IQE -> Macom/lite) and there are bigger problems to worry about.

If you just split out AXT’s 10+ upstream JVs into one merchant Western company it would probably be worth more strategically than 5N.

Also revenue numbers are misleading since these are TTM contracts, not new ones signed. All the upstream materials like 7n high purity indium has spiked immensely since last year.

It’s all vertically integrated so there might be a NAND style price hike off limited substrates, but unlike Sumitomo, AXT does the entire supply chain minus a few like red phosphorus.

So it’s more dangerous than you think.

@aleabitoreddit Like I said in my replies, you nailed this trade and early. I'm jealous I didn't buy it in the low teens when I first had it hit my radar. I do think it's gotten way over done and they've used these moments to dilute shareholders multiple times. There's export risks, valuation


This is bullish for $AEHR and I expect sometime this quarter we'll see how much revenue that translates to

Summary: Bullish AEHR on confirmed near-term production ramp and significant follow-up orders; expects revenue translation this quarter.

@r99rr99r In $AEHR ER, they confirmed near term production ramp, and “signficiant” follow up orders.

This is bullish for $AEHR and I expect sometime this quarter we’ll see how much revenue that translates to.

I wouldn’t look at today’s numbers to price in future earnings.

@aleabitoreddit So long-term buy, short-term uncertainty?


Summary: Bought AAOI at ~$84; $6.6B MC seen as too cheap given new $500M warchest.

@mi20483980476 I personally bought a decent amount of $AAOI at ~$84 just now, $6.6B MC feels way too cheap for me, especially with their new $500m warchest.


Summary: Bullish AEHR: hyperscaler volume ramp confirmed, transitioning from qualification to mass production, follow-on order expected in FY2027.

$AEHR earnings:

- Current Backlog: $38.7 million as of the end of the quarter, with an "effective backlog" of $50.9 million

-H2 FY26 Guidance: Reiterated expectations for $25 million to $30 million in revenue for the second half of the year

Thoughts on earnings:

Can just ignore current earnings, main indicators are around hyperscaler volume ramp H2.

Volume ramp indication confirmations:

1. "We are seeing significant forecasts from our lead hyperscale customer for our Sonoma systems for high-volume production burn-in of their custom AI processor ASICs"

2. "We expect a significant near-term follow-on production order from this customer for a large number of systems to be shipped during Aehr's fiscal year 2027"

This is what is expected with $AEHR transitioning from qualification to mass volume like $AAOI and we got that confirmation.

H2 is probably more confirmation around siph customer volume ramp into 2027.


Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs... $15B annual revenue target.. Starting to look reasonable?

Summary: Long ARM on inference shift back to CPUs, edge AI rollout, and ARM-based hyperscaler chips driving toward $15B revenue target.

Bullish on $ARM, given the new bottleneck shifting back to CPUs. MS shows stuff like Orchestration/RAG requiring CPUs.

But I'm predicting parts of localized inference to be handled by CPUs more and more... as models like Gemma get  lightweight in the future.

Not every robot needs to be able to solve the mysteries of the universe.

Data centers will need an astronomical amount of traditional CPU compute (AWS Graviton, $GOOGL Axion, and $MSFT Cobalt), which are all ARM based.

$META + OpenAI are also buyers of the AGI CPU.

And AI will flow down to edge.

$15B annual revenue target.. Starting to look reasonable?

FYI: I went long on $ARM at $139.

Genuinely a compelling long at $143B MC as markets shift more from training -> inference.

Then $ARM AI CPUs cannibalize the market for inference and $NVDA market share.

Especially as LLMs get more lightweight.

The projections to https://t.co/xvoSrRw1cu


Summary: Just entered MSSCorp; bullish on fundamentals and market cap rather than chart performance.

@forget8106 I’d disagree, I personally just entered MSSCorp recently.

It’s better to look at fundamentals and MC rather than just looking at the chart to see how much it ran up.

@aleabitoreddit imo only reasonable ones to enter now are towa and probably lpk on a pullback

long term obviously all early in their journey but the rest of these have ran/priced in imo


Summary: Would open new positions in SIVE (CPO/1.6T lasers), LPK (glass core substrates), Shunsin (optical test/packaging), HPS.A, and SOI this week.

@wdh37 $SIVE for CPO/1.6T lasers
$LPK for glass core substrates
Shunsin for optical test/packaging.

Many others I like though like $HPS.A or $SOI.

@aleabitoreddit If you were opening new positions this week which 3 would you be opening into


Summary: NVDA's $2B investment validates MRVL's CPO roadmap; SIVE flagged as overlooked light-source supplier beneficiary.

Just in: $NVDA invests $2B in $MRVL.

This deal is largely for “joint silicon photonics work” and validates Marvell and Celestial AI's optical fabric CPO roadmap.

But… guess who powers the light source for $MRVL that markets might have missed? (Hint: $SIVE) https://t.co/9lqJLIx7nG


Summary: Holds high-conviction long NBIS; stellar earnings, $7-9B ARR 2026 target, 40% EBITDA margins vastly outperforming expectations.

$NBIS earnings were stellar and it’s now trading $200+ premarket.

Reiterated $7-9B ARR in 2026. 40% adj. EBITDA margin projections, which is vastly outperforming expectations.

4 GW contracted capacity. $6.3B capital secured by $NVDA off solid financial offering structures.

Glad my high conviction Neocloud pick is performing wonders and happy management is executing so well.

In the words of Jensen: “Nebius will take care of you”


I expect PCL Technologies (4977) to double as well. Since they're doing everything in $AVGO photonics ecosystem for assembly, optical, testing.

Summary: Expects PCL Technologies (4977) to double on AVGO photonics ecosystem assembly/optical/testing work.

PCL Technologies (4977) TWSE-listed in AVGO photonics ecosystem

I actually don’t have positions but gave some slight DD away for subscribers earlier.

I expect PCL Technologies (4977) to double as well.

Since they’re doing everything in $AVGO photonics ecosystem for assembly, optical, testing.

Think I mentioned this around ~$450M MC? https://t.co/vmgilSKANV

Shunsin (6451). Foxconn’s optical packaging/assembly arm.

Previously 15-16% gross margins as OSAT but CPO/1.6T could be 30-35%, which brings blended up.

Since they’re doing harder FAU optical alignment in $NVDA CPO supply chains.

Compared to $FN or $ASX that trades in the


I'm not sure why anyone still uses Robinhood for investing anymore

Summary: Recommends switching from Robinhood to IBKR for international equities; dismisses HOOD as no-longer relevant.

US retail investors should switch from $HOOD to $IBKR for international equities.

I’m not sure why anyone still uses Robinhood for investing anymore.

Unless you have $50 and no clue what you’re doing.

They had their chance to innovate but focused on Melania Coin integrations

@aleabitoreddit bro how do we buy these tickers 😭 they don't even show up in my brokerage


US retail investors should switch from $HOOD to $IBKR for international equities


This announcement is the most bullish catalyst for $HIMS revenue re-acceleration to date. Short sellers are likely in trouble

Summary: Long HIMS: FDA peptide reclassification is a major bullish catalyst; high short interest, new acquisitions, and peptide subscription ARR potential signal forced short covering. Incidental bearish lean on NVO via lawsuit mention.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

This announcement is the most bullish catalyst for $HIMS revenue re-acceleration to date.

This is amid:
- 30%+ of the float sold short
- new $NVO partnership/lawsuit dropped
- new global acquisitions
- recovering macro climate.

The share price is still $25, down from $70 last year.

Short sellers are likely in trouble:

$HIMS can capture market share at the ~70%-80% gross margins typical of their compounded products for the holy grail of the "Grey Market" TAM for peptides.

- EG. Healing: BPC-157 and Thymosin beta-4
- Hair & Skin: GHK-Cu
- Weight Loss & Muscle: MOTS-c and Ibutamoren

And now they're probably the world's largest independent DTC distribution network to date from their new acquisitions...

So just running a peptide protocol subscription between $150 to $300, for 200k subscribers is $360M+ in high-margin ARR.

As just one example, but now they have a worldwide net of customers.

They burned through capex last year to acquire peptide manufacturing facilities too... so now that's turned into a massive cash-cow business.

I said $HIMS would need fundamental changes in order to force shorts to cover, and this is probably that signal as seen with market data.

And $HIMS is turning into a fundamentally sound company after regulatory de-risking.

Today, we took long-overdue action to restore science, accountability, and the rule of law.

In September 2023, the Biden FDA pushed a number of peptides into Category 2 — “Bulk Drug Substances that Raise Significant Safety Risks” — driving a dangerous black market that puts


Summary: Favorite exposure is LPK for broad supply chain; also long glass core substrate plays like Samsung and INTC as bigger names in the space.

No. $LPK is probably my favorite exposure right now since they supply to everyone.

I'm just saying if people are long glass core substrates, Samsung, $INTC, and others are probably a bit bigger.

SKC is probably the lowest MC leader in that space.

Then if you see them succeeding, then HB gets a piggyback + probably ends up supplying yields related stuff to the other players.

@aleabitoreddit Do you prefer these over $LPKFF?


Summary: Long Sivers Semiconductors to $10B+ MC as AI DC laser underdog; MRVL/AVGO called out as likely acquirers or supply-chain beneficiaries.

I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company.

Not later this year.

Since I’m not sure how:

- $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation

- packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation.

- laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions.

And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer.

There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either.

So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream.

Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions.

Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post.

Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE.

DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.

@aleabitoreddit $SIVE is ripping today too and still have along way to go, do you still support your 2/3B MC for this year ?


it's a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream


Summary: Bullish Win Semi as undervalued at $5.4B given strategic role in robotics, space, and AI hyperscaler supply chains.

What a sleeper OP pick.

Still almost nobody talks about Win Semi ($3105.TWO)…

From $LITE to $SIVE. And $AAPL to $AVGO to SpaceX.

Feels like everyone uses them?

$5.4B price tag is underselling its importance to robotics, space, and AI hyperscaler supply chains imo. https://t.co/lMg92KzufM


Summary: High-conviction long AAOI into 2027 on massive revenue ramp and domestic supply chain advantage.

$AAOI is now up ~6-7x at $200+.

Feels like nobody else was long last year aside from me and like two other people on X?

Remains one of my top high conviction optical longs moving forward into 2027 due to massive revenue ramp + Made in America supply chains. https://t.co/HD0724F2vE


Summary: Long AAOI on end-to-end 800G/1.6T scale, insatiable hyperscaler demand, US manufacturing premium and tax credits; near-term dilution headwind noted.

Yes $AAOI has the end-to-end manufacturing scale for 800G/1.6T optical transceivers in a time where hyperscalers will buy anything $AAOI or optical players can make.

The fact they're trying to do it all in America + receive tax credits (eg. Texas) should give it premiums.

Just annoying there's a $600m dilution affecting near term prices.

@aleabitoreddit I am a Korean investor.
Do you continue to see the outlook for AAOI positively?


Summary: Long both Sivers (SIVE) and Win Semi as the two beneficiaries of the laser architectural supercycle for mass production.

This is exactly why I long the $SIVE laser ecosystem with Win Semi (3105).

The beneficiaries of the next architectural supercycle for laser mass production?

Sivers + Win.

Especially with the announcement yesterday that Sivers is powering $JBL 1.6T optical transceivers. https://t.co/05wYF3fR0U


Summary: Bullish FOCI and MSScorps; retail found them early on TSMC COUPE/AI optics theme before mainstream institutions pile in.

Oh look, a new UDN article about $TSM COUPE + AI optical markets.

Institutional investors are optimistic that Taiwanese companies:

FOCI (3363), and MSScorps (6830) are expected to benefit

But... that "Institutional" should be changed to retail investors on X?

For FOCI: "Its FAU products have been developed in cooperation with TSMC for at least three years, and the specifications have been promoted to 1.6T,  3.2T, and the subsequent mass production schedule has become the focus  of market observation."

For MSS: "cut into the silicon photonics and CPO detection analysis, the main  "light loss detection" technology ... and launch of the silicon photonics test  platform, lock in research and development, engineering verification,  failure analysis and a small number of diverse test applications."

These are still two extremely small companies... and things like MSS weren't even mentioned by GS, despite the news claims about relations.

So feels like X found this early, mainstream institutions are likely about to enter after seeing this sort of confirmation.


yes I have positions, as I've disclosed earlier

Summary: Confirms holding a long position in HIMS.

@commieserenity Thats a weird question to ask considering I’m talking about $HIMS and their pills.

But yes I have positions, as I’ve disclosed earlier


Summary: High-conviction long on AEHR in the semiconductor test space.

@TD_btc24 Yeah $AEHR is high conviction now in the test space. Tons of potential there


NT $12.72B revenue 2027 ... ~NT$17.61+ EPS to $20+ ... should scale up based on optical projections for 2028, 2029, 2030

Summary: Detailed 2027 model for Shunsin: NT$12.7B rev, 26% gross margin, NT$1.87B net income, EPS NT$17.61–$20+, driven by 3.5–4M SiPh/CPO units at NT$2,350 ASP in Hanoi/Bac Giang.

Good question! Basically:

-NT $12.72B revenue 2027
-Gross profit (26% margin): NT $3.3B
-Opex (~NT$1.1B)
-Operating income: NT $2.2B
-Blended Tax + non-op: NT$330m
-Net income: NT$1.87B
~NT$17.61+ EPS to $20+

Lot of capex/depreciation in former years because of scaling up CPO facilities in Hanoi/Bac Giang, so gross margin expansion and 80% utilization to 26%.

Modeled based off Shunsin capturing 3.5-4M SiPh/CPO packaging units witH ASP NT$2,350

3.5M × NT2,350= NT $8.2B

Legacy Business (Stabilized): NT$4.5B

8.2 + 4.5 = 12.7B rev for 2027. And should scale up based on optical projections for 2028, 2029, 2030.

@aleabitoreddit What are the assumptions behind your earnings estimate for 2027?


Summary: Long XFAB on Silicon Photonics/CPO, SiC foundry, EU/US CHIPS Act grants, power semi exposure via NVTS/POWI, and depressed 1.29x P/B with 2028 fwd PE of 6.5-8.5x.

X-FAB Silicon Foundries listed on Euronext Paris as XFAB.PA

$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.

Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.

> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI

> Silicon Photonics / CPO exposure with $NVDA as evaluation stage for high volume manufacturing (optical transceivers/switches)

> The only high-volume SiC foundry in the US.

> One of the critical MEMS foundries

> ~1.29 P/B, which was around what $SOI was sitting at when I went long. Depressed valuations due to legacy drag

> ~6.5-8.5 fwd p/e 2028 personal est.

> backstopped by Government:

- EU CHIPS act, $128M Euros
- US CHIPS act $50M PMT (department of commerce).

With likely more coming (just signals critical importance to Western supply chains).

So at a certain point with all the grants, they’re just getting the capex funded by the Governments.

EU CHIPS act 2 is coming out this week, and I’m gonna go ahead and guess $XFAB might get included given they were before, and this package is specifically targeting photonics.

~$1.3B MC seems compelling to me if it can pull a Soitec reversal (low p/b, very high growth segments, auto legacy drag).

As for the $NVDA silicon photonics relationships it’s under “photonixFAB”.

Markets probably missed this silicon photonics relationship (like $TSEM when I went long) with Nvidia since XFab leads this…  Just under a different name.

For power semis, XFAB is named for SiC + $NVTS. In PCN-22181, $POWI explicitly names XFAB as its foundry.

Given its exposure to power semis and photonics as growth, low P/B, gov backstop (of course dyor, just sharing my personal thoughts)

Thought it personally seemed compelling.


Summary: High-conviction long AAOI on revenue ramp into a massive optical transceiver TAM.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Yes that's a great way to approach it from the tech angle.

Whether something is a great long, is extremely multifaceted.

I was also looking at $HIMX if it translated into material revenue as well and decided not to take a long position.

$AAOI I have high conviction on given revenue projections ramp in a massive TAM for optical transceivers.

Disagree with many picks and went the other way. Not all lesser known chokepoints make great longs.

@aleabitoreddit Appreciate the thoughtful breakdown.
Agreed. The recent drop was accelerated by macro, not purely stock itself.

Time will tell how much of each.

From my side, I focused strictly on the technology. Wether the chokepoint is structurally durable or designable-out. That was the


Summary: Small semi supply chain players likely benefit from META's aggressive $145B capex spending.

Small cap semi supply chain; SOXX covers broad semi sector

@joestar1402 So markets might not like $META aggressive capex spending $145 billion… but i think the small semi supply chain players do lol.

Depends on what you’re looking at. But earnings were generally positive across the board.

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts with how earnings will affect market in the short term with only Google being up?


Summary: Bullish on SIVE, IQE, and SOI as core European photonics plays; dips expected to be bought at current levels.

Just your average day in European photonics?

With $SIVE, $IQE, and $SOI all hitting double digit recoveries.

These are all core players going forward, hard to see any dip not being bought out at these levels. https://t.co/fYaYAov3Vn


Summary: Bullish AXTI as a bottleneck, TSEM on capacity maxing out in 1-2 years, SOI on monopoly in SOI substrates driving material revenue growth from siph/cpo demand.

$AXTI is a bottleneck.
$TSEM not yet so far, but I'd expect it to be maxed out on capacity next year or two.
$SIVE upcoming with CW lasers.
$COHR does way too much, on EML yes, on other things no.
$SOI not exactly a bottleneck but it's a monopoly over soi substrates, which are required for siph and cpo. so this leads to material revenue increases from everything that gets made.

@aleabitoreddit How about $SIVE $AXTI $TSEM $COHR $SOI etc ?


I'd expect it to be maxed out on capacity next year or two


Summary: Long AAOI as favorite US photonics play; sees 4-5x return in 12-24 months once ATM selling pressure clears.

$AAOI is actually my favorite photonics exposure in the US market right now.

I went long last year with low sizing at $28, back when I guessed they were qualifying with $AMZN and $MSFT.

High conviction post earnings at ~$70, when they announced 1.6T and other volume orders with hyperscalers.

Capacity projections at $90 for 2027 timelines were bullish.

Now at $150, the story from 2025 is coming together with all the laser fab bottlenecks, GS optical TAM projections, Made in America efforts, $NVDA / $AMD discussion rumors.

The only thing holding them back is ATM after ATM, and now another $600m ATM…

I personally think it easily rerates once the mechanical selling pressure stops.

And personally think it could be a 4-5x return in 12-24M.

Also I don’t know who calculates those forward p/e’s on the screener websites but they’re all extremely off.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think of $AAOI at these levels? Too late? Looking at a 12-24 month horizon, it’s got a super high fwd PE like around 85 or higher


Summary: Long XFAB on EU CHIPS Act catalyst, 800V power semi exposure via NVDA/NVTS/POWI, and silicon photonics/CPO thesis.

Appreciate the more neutral coverage by Reuters and Bloomberg on $XFAB today.

Although it would be nicer to focus more on the structural thesis presented…

Around 800 vdc power semis $NVDA exposure + with ongoing $NVDA / $NOK evaluations for photonics.

And around CHIPS Act semiconductor sovereignty as the near term catalyst.

Rather than around volatility from novel information synthesis.

I spend a lot of time looking at regulatory filings to find compelling things market missed you know…

$XFAB (photonics + power semis) is an interesting long idea at $1.28B MC, that I took positions in.

Given EU CHIPS act 2 is today as the catalyst for European photonics players.

> 800 VDC power semi exposure to $NVDA push through $NVTS + $POWI

> Silicon Photonics / CPO https://t.co/AZFFLbQk8O


I'm still bearish on $IREN due to $6B ATM overhang, even if there's rumors they're doing colo.

Summary: Bearish IREN on $6B ATM overhang despite colo rumors.

@BitcoinAIGuy I’m still bearish on $IREN due to $6B ATM overhang, even if there’s rumors they’re doing colo. I was long last year you know.

@aleabitoreddit well well well, look who’s back


Summary: Bearish FUTU and TIGR on Chinese regulatory risk; avoid broad China exposure including BABA and PDD due to lack of legal recourse.

Feels like $FUTU and $TIGR are kinda screwed? The Chinese Gov is going after their historical revenues.

There's basically no fair law in China (esp. with IP), so if Gov wants something done, courts will be rigged against them.

So no chance of an appeal, unless they make a hidden deal. Also don't think the brokerages are able to pull a $GOOGL like their 20 decillion fine, given local operations

So TLDR: Good lesson learned to avoid Chinese exposure from $BABA to $PDD as much as possible...

And (as seen with $META + Manus + this case), even if something looks cheap.

There's a reason why all the US equities have premiums, even if a little high.


Good lesson learned to avoid Chinese exposure from $BABA to $PDD as much as possible


$LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time. This find looks structurally massive for $SIVE as it undercuts narratives about $LITE and others being primary suppliers

Summary: SIVE likely primary laser supplier for AMD/Ayar CPO program, displacing LITE and MTSI; structurally massive positive for SIVE.

Woah... Sivers looks like the primary laser supplier to $AMD's CPO program if AMD goes the Ayar route at $GFS.

The interesting thing is: $LITE and $MTSI were silently removed from Ayar's website sequentially over time.

(Special thanks to one of my followers Setian for the DM.)

So $SIVE likely became the primary laser supplier for Ayar first-gen... and by extension for all of Ayar's customers routing through Alchip or other ASIC design firms.

Ayar also raised $500M last month for VOLUME PRODUCTION, where $SIVE is designed in.

This find looks structurally massive for $SIVE as it undercuts narratives about $LITE and others being primary suppliers.

And especially about $SIVE having only a small % laser share for CPO if they're likely to be the primary laser supplier.

The $AMD and $GFS CPO announcement is probably bigger than markets expect for $SIVE.

With the news, it's likely $SIVE lasers power $AMD's CPO program.

Either through two potential paths:

1. Enosemi (AMD's in-house PIC design post-acquisition). Enosemi's chiplets are fabbed at


Summary: Bearish IREN, SLNH, and BKKT on massive dilutive ATM offerings destroying equity value for retail holders.

$IREN and $SLNH investors are probably the most braindead communities I've interacted with on X.

I've never seen a community so bullish on a $219M MC stock that has a new $1,000,000,000 dilution.

And an ongoing $500,000,000 ATM.

Then you have $IREN, with $6,000,000,000 active ATM, sold over time into the open market.

Maybe, it's a better idea to just go long on a stock without the toxic financing... So you can actually benefit from equity appreciation without just being liquidity?

It's just so hard to explain to people the nuances in financial dilution who lack the brain cells.

And it just so happens $SLNH gets mentioned positively by $BKKT, $IREN investors the moment after they file a $500M ATM since they need exit liquidity.

The company is selling offloading shares directly to these idiots.


an ongoing $500,000,000 ATM... The company is selling offloading shares directly to these idiots


$SLNH gets mentioned positively by $BKKT, $IREN investors the moment after they file a $500M ATM since they need exit liquidity


it's actually extremely positive so far contrary to market reactions. It's a forward growth story

Summary: Bullish AAOI: market mispriced earnings; 800G capacity ramp + sell-out demand = forward growth story into Q3.

$AAOI reported earnings, it's actually extremely positive so far contrary to market reactions.

Like all 2027 hyperbolic forward growth companies:

Nobody should care about current financials.

Key things market missed was:

AOI: hit They hit 100K units/month capacity for 800G transceivers.

And: -> "Significant larger growth expected starting in Q3 as capacity comes online"

If you do look at financials:

It's ~29.2% non GAAP gross margin

on ~$151.1M revenue, guiding $180-$198m Q2.

We already know from Lumentum earnings that it's more of capacity bottleneck, not a demand one. And anything they make they sell out.

It's a forward growth story, so important thing aside from these notes is the earnings call on hyperscaler demand implications and capacity ramp.


Summary: Bullish FLNC: two hyperscaler MSAs in one quarter, high short interest squeeze potential, and possible generational run if GOOGL signs a massive contract.

I actually think $FLNC should be a lot higher.

The implications of having 2 incoming direct hyperscaler contracts in 1 quarter is enormous.

$MSFT to $AMZN don't sign tiny deals.

Obviously markets like to wait more until actual news/purchase order numbers come out... in the off-chance it doesn't go through or lower than expected.

But a company doesn't just randomly announce 2 hyperscalers MSas and an expectation of the orders to hit Q3.

Also winning multiple hyperscaler deals, in a single quarter is a leading indicator for more, especially as Fluence BESS becomes standardized.

Given short interest is around 27.69%, I'm not sure if pre-earnings short sellers are very comfortable to take a risk...

I think there's a chance for a generational run if a hyperscaler like $GOOGL signs a massive contract.

@aleabitoreddit @Jess252530 Buying the flnc dip as well


there's only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI

Summary: Bullish Sivers (SIVE) on imminent US institutional inflows via NASDAQ listing + $1B MC unlock; LITE/COHR/MTSI cited as rare CPO/silicon-photonics plays with similar demand tailwinds.

Fun fact: don’t think any large US institution had positions in $SIVE / $SIVEF since it was a majority owned local Swedish retail stock.

There’s also fund mandates preventing US funds from entering (eg. Nasdaq listing / $1B MC)

That’s definitely changed now thanks to European media shaking out the local holders, Sivers upcoming NASDAQ listing, and hitting $1B+ MC.

Again $1.3B is literal spare change for hyperscalers and US institutions.

And I have high confidence many would want exposure to CPO, silicon photonics and lasers, since there’s only a few in the entire world like $LITE, $COHR, and $MTSI.

Especially… a CHIPS Act laser supplier likely in $AMD, $MRVL, $AAPL, Lightmatter, Ayar, AlChip, GUC, O-Net and other supply chains like the Golden Dome.

Part of it is game theory for share accumulation.

Since US/Western retail now owns a large part of the float (off of the Swedish sellers).

And US institutions now want exposure.

Also feels like there’s an infinite TWAP on $SIVE

Price goes up, long time holders sell, price goes up even more.

Feel like large institutional bids averaging their buys.


Nike has definitely lost its 'cool factor' and when the stock is at 26 fwd p/e, maybe there's better longs out there

Summary: Bearish NKE: brand lost cool factor to On/NB/Lululemon/Vuori, valuation at 26x fwd P/E looks unattractive versus better opportunities elsewhere.

$NKE is a good lesson to trust your real life instincts.

- If you see everyone wearing Oncloud / new balance shoes instead of Nike

- You see everyone wearing vuori or lululemon shorts instead of Nike

- Even Uniqlo / GU for casual/athletic wear instead of Nike

Then the only place you see Nike are at your local Walmart or Ross discount stores.

Nike has definitely lost its “cool factor” and when the stock is at 26 fwd p/e, maybe there’s better longs out there.


Summary: Bullish AAOI on path to $55B MC from $7B today on $1.8B Q4-2026 revenue potential; COHR cited as comparable at that scale.

@KaneCapz Revenue hasn’t even hit $AAOI earnings yet?

If they’re implicitly saying they can do $1.8B q4 2026… and it’s a $7B MC today.

They have the potential to be a $COHR or Innolight at $55B.

@aleabitoreddit CPO ramp same for AAOI correct?

Man so u still think these names have >12 months to go? Insane


Summary: Iran peace deal could squeeze excessive short positions in AAOI, LITE, and SMH.

This has gotta be the biggest taco supreme I’ve ever seen?

Yesterday: “GG Iran as a civilization”

Today: “Hurray for World Peace, Iran can reconstruct, US is helping flow of passage through the strait. Big money to be made”

Too many shorts on $AAOI to $LITE and $SMH right now that might be screwed.


Summary: Bullish on CPO inspection market leader; sees $5-10B MC from current $1.4B on 90% market share thesis.

CEVA Inc NASDAQ-listed semiconductor IP company

CPO is the holy grail of next-gen photonics architectures.

The CEO's claim was to "seize a 90 percent share of the CPO inspection market" (basically 100% but they can't say that otherwise antitrust).

$5-10B+ MC isn't far fetched from $1.4B if they manage to maintain their status.

@aleabitoreddit What’s the upside potential with this one you think?


Summary: Bullish Towa: market has overlooked it despite record capex from memory makers.

@reallldealll I think markets missed Towa given record capex spend from all your memory makers https://t.co/iVmufEGXF8

@aleabitoreddit is there something that did not go brrr yet ?😭


this just means you're early to the next supercycle and there's a lot of room to go

Summary: Bullish photonics supercycle; SIVE, TSEM, AAOI named as early-stage plays with lots of room to run.

What an insane day for photonics.

$SIVE up 31.3%
$TSEM up 23.1%
$AAOI 20.01%.

It feels like a lot… but this just means you’re early to the next supercycle and there’s a lot of room to go.

Lot of people on X ask what’s next after $SNDK?

Here they are. https://t.co/jTeHpYtf0n


Summary: SIVE should be ~$3B now, $10B next year on volume ramp, with multi-year path to challenge LITE at $60B+.

I think $SIVE realistically should be valued around ~$3B today after information discovery/news around $YSS + Golden Dome and Lightmatter.

NASDAQ listing doesn’t change it fundamentally, but gives it more liquidity to bridge that valuation gap.

Next year $10B very possible on volume ramp.

And I see a realistic path to competing with $60B+ $LITE over next few years if they want to speedrun it with downstream IP acquisitions.

@aleabitoreddit Honestly and realistically, what’s possible this year in a conservative case ?


Summary: Bullish AXTI: controls ~40% of InP supply chain upstream chokepoints with pricing power.

You're comparing Sumitomo finished InP substrates vs AXT.

$AXTI owns many many material chokepoints upstream required to make the finished substrates. And they're roughly ~40% of the entire InP supply chain like indium/gallium/precursors to pBN crucibles + processing.

It's a materials problem, they can always price hike if they wanted to.

@aleabitoreddit Doesn’t $SMTOY produce more than $AXTI despite being less than 1% of revenues?


Reddit looks like a literal, high growth money printer. I do have Reddit positions. Reddit money printer go brrr.

Summary: Long RDDT with held positions; blowout quarter with 69% revenue growth, massive EPS beat, and strong forward guidance make it a high-growth compounder.

Wow, $RDDT just posted an absolute blowout quarter.

-> $663M revenue (69% growth Y/Y) vs. ~$608M consensus.
-> $1.01 EPS reported vs. $0.6 consensus (68.3% beat).
-> 91.5% gross margins.
-> Q1 GAAP net income was $204M. This is probably the most important figure for true profitability since it includes SBC.

Next quarter they projected, $715M to $725M revenue growth with $285 million to $295 million adjusted EBITDA.

Reddit looks like a literal, high growth money printer. (Disclosure: I do have Reddit positions.)

Expect a lot of chart volatility from short term option flows.

But fundamentally, if you look at Reddit earnings without the noise, Reddit money printer go brrr.


Summary: Bullish RDDT; dismisses competitive threat from Facebook Forums as a reason to leave Reddit.

@EndratoxHatesW Really doubt anyone is quitting $RDDT to join FB's Forums.

@aleabitoreddit Are you still bullish on RDDT after all the bad news? Thinking of entering


if there's any indication that they hit their targets and macro clears up, we probably won't see current valuations again

Summary: Long AAOI: largest 1.6T transceiver capacity in US, $4.35B annualized revenue potential by H2 2027, vertically integrated supply chain; current valuation won't persist once execution risk clears.

Just a gentle reminder:

$AAOI expects to have the largest production capacity of 1.6T optical transceivers in America.

Just as optical TAM is expected to ramp to $100B in a bull case (Lightcounting).

AOI: “We expect that we will soon have the largest production capacity for … 1.6T transceivers in the US” from their former ER transcript.

They expect shipments to begin Q3 of 2026 and projected $378M / month capacity starting H2 2027, which is $4.35B annualized if hyperscalers buy anything they make.

We’re in H1 of 2026, so it’s a tad early to be panicking from market volatility.

Since AOI does the entire supply chain from InP laser fab, design, and assembly all captive.

And especially in the USA + Taiwan operations that they’re reshoring (rather than sourcing to China/Malaysia/Thailand)

Markets miss this part especially:

-> They have TAM expansion optionality for ELS to merchant models in any parts of their vertically integrated supply chain.

$AAOI is trading at $6.4B largely because of execution uncertainty and macro. And execution will always be an speculative overhang until it comes time to deliver.

But if there’s any indication that they hit their targets and macro clears up, we probably won’t see current valuations again.


Summary: Bullish MRVL on CPO/Celestial scale-up ramp; bullish SIVE as direct laser supplier to Celestial with 2x+ revenue ramp ahead.

$MRVL earnings were a bullish indicator on the broader CPO theme (and $SIVE as the likely laser supplier).

- “Scale-up interconnect represents one of the newest and most strategically important opportunities emerging in AI infrastructure.”

CPO thematically go brrr

- Confirmation Celestial was selected by T1 hyperscaler for scale up.

I’ve found Celestial $AMZN warrants in the past)… so probably Amazon.

- Scale-up optics revenue next year should be more than 2x prior ~$150M outlook with Celestial

Forward revenue ramp expectations go brrr.

- Celestial team plus $MRVL optics team was a “home run”.

Marvell sees celestial as growth vector, upstream celestial suppliers go brr

- $MRVL is now focused on bringing Celestial to high volume manufacturing.

Volume ramp indicator

If you don’t recall, there was OSINT mapping $SIVE directly to Celestial, not through $POET.

So Celestial forward growth is a volume ramp indicator for Sivers lasers.


Summary: Multi-year long on NEXT (sold-out capacity); LNG exporters like LNG benefit from Iran geopolitics.

Extremely solid multi-year long (eg. 3-5 years) for $NEXT, especially when capacity is sold out already. LNG production is first half of 2027 though? Though I do think the sector as a whole will get attention.

The main beneficiaries of Iran are the LNG exporters like $LNG now backstopping the rest of the world though.

@aleabitoreddit Looked at $NEXT yet big dawg?


The main beneficiaries of Iran are the LNG exporters like $LNG now backstopping the rest of the world


I do think $AAOI outperforms macro climate personally

Summary: Long AAOI: supply bottleneck and low BOM share of optical transceivers make it outperform despite macro headwinds.

I'm actually bearish on the market.

However, there's some individual stocks like $AAOI that I expect to outperform despite macro climate.

If you're sold out because nobody can make enough... even if hyperscalers cut back capex, you have the same problem in the bottleneck.

Also BOM share of optical transceivers is actually not that much compared to others like memory, so they'd happily pay.

TLDR pretty nuanced, but I do think $AAOI outpetforms macro climate personally.

@aleabitoreddit I think you’re ignoring an elephant in the room. People are offloading volatile stocks because Trump may start a retarded war


Summary: Long LITE on extreme backlog demand into 2028; long AAOI with $40B MC target on 800G/1.6T capacity leadership and vertically integrated InP laser fab.

I'm not sure people understand yet:

$LITE backlog order fill into 2028 signals extreme demand. And a lack of capacity.

Then by second order effect of hyperscaler demand spillover:

Guess who is projected to have the largest 800G/1.6T capacity in America?

$AAOI.

They fab their own inp lasers, design their own transceivers, and assemble it.

If $AAOI can execute on capacity ramp, that likely all translates into revenue due to everything being sold out.

My $40B MC price target from $5B is starting to look more and more likely?

We're now in the photonics supercycle.

The trio from $COHR, $LITE, $AAOI in America are expected to perform well from a surge in demand.

New Report:

" Lumentum is experiencing a surge in demand from the artificial intelligence sector, with its order pipeline now fully https://t.co/gGjrxL7AZ6


My $40B MC price target from $5B is starting to look more and more likely?


Summary: Rotated from LITE/COHR into CPO names like SIVE; bullish on photonics supercycle/CPO paradigm; still sees upside in COHR and Lumentum but less explosive.

A good looking guy that would mog Clavicular side by side has no impact to any fundamentals.

I cut some exposure too in $LITE $COHR like Leopold, last month.

But rotated it to a specific optical theme with CPO names like $SIVE / Foci.

The entire photonics supply chain is in the start of a massive supercycle and there’s nothing more compelling going long on CPO as an architectural paradigm shift.

Markets conflate two companies as the entire theme and sell off anything with it.

Great buying opportunity for people who understands the nuance though.

I still think there’s upside for Lumentum and $COHR, just less likely to double at current prices as fast if you’re going shares only.

@aleabitoreddit People panicking Leopold exited optical stocks, what do you think on that ?


I still think there's upside for Lumentum and $COHR, just less likely to double at current prices as fast


I still think there's upside for Lumentum and $COHR

Lumentum Holdings trades as LITE on NASDAQ


I'm hanging on to $AAOI for potential $40B MC one day

Summary: Still holding AAOI with a long-term target of $40B market cap.

@raghavrmehta I’m hanging on to $AAOI for potential $40B MC one day.

@aleabitoreddit How much more runway do you think these stocks have? What in your opinion is the fair value?


I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC ... I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long

Summary: Long MSSCorps (6830) as a functional monopoly in CPO inspection with massive pricing power, litigation moat, and re-rating potential.

MSSCorps is MSSCorp 6830.TW per tweet context

I am now long MSSCorps (6830) ~$1.4B MC

This appears to be a functional monopoly in CPO for inspection.

But markets might have conflated that with Material/Failure Analysis with MA-tek and iST (oligopoly).

For customers from mapping:
1. $TSM
2. $NVDA
3. $AAPL
4. $AMAT
5. $LRCX
6. $ASML
7. $INTC

And high probability $AVGO, MediaTek, Samsung, $MRVL, and others (they did mention EU too).

If you're curious:
 - Taipei times names TSM as a client that Msscorps provides them with advanced material and failure analysis and name drops Apple, Nvidia, Lam, AMAT (also S/O to Latent for doing DD with me on this. there's other supply chain relationships to Nvidia through things like linkedin)
- For $AMSL, Taipei Times, Sept 10, 2024 "ASML adopted Msscorps' ultra-sensitive materials analysis of photoresists"

For Intel -  Material analysis lab MSSCORPS has secured orders from major manufacturers such as Nvidia and Intel (Industrial Technology Research).

For inspection (non-destructive infrared (IR) leakage detection), they're a monopoly.

And have aggressively used litigation (like the Enli Tech lawsuit) to lock out rivals, which I view as a positive thing.

This creates massive pricing power with yields and every major player goes through them.

CPO inspection market is also extremely critical and like $AXTI in the InP substrate section, this massive chokepoint has pure pricing power with price hikes.

The risk is the patent suit doesn't go as plan, but Nvidia and other hyperscalers aren't likely to go with other parties in case MSSCorps wins, so this creates a massive multi-year advantage anyway. Hyperscalers aren't going to wait to see how an emerging competitor is going to win or not + take the risk.

I do see the massive re-rating potential with MSSCorp holding a critical yields chokepoint over CPO, so I went long (NFA, DYOR), this is just my thought process.


Summary: Long SIVE, SOI, XFAB (and IQE) as EU Chips Act 2.0 funding beneficiaries per blueprint inclusion.

Yeah would not be surprised to see $SIVE, $SOI, and $XFAB funding with EU Chips Act 2.

Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint, I didn’t see that earlier in my research!

Looks like formal announcement got pushed back to next week though. https://t.co/2SdG4Gocql

@aleabitoreddit It was included in the March 2026 blueprint. Let’s see the publication of today and the proposal for EU CHIPS ACT 2.0 https://t.co/pIqOJ0Fczi


Glad to all my longs there (aside from $IQE) listed on the blueprint


매크로 환경이 다시 긍정적으로 돌아서면 주가도 회복될 것입니다

Summary: RDDT selloff is macro-driven not fundamental; expects price to recover when macro turns positive.

@Banbo_Insight $RDDT 에 대한 새로운 소식은 없습니다. 저는 이번 매도세가 기초 펀더멘털의 문제라기보다는 매크로(거시 경제) 요인 때문이라고 느꼈습니다.

따라서 매크로 환경이 다시 긍정적으로 돌아서면 주가도 회복될 것입니다.


$IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling "5 GW capacity" moat.

Summary: Short IREN on endless dilution/weak NVDA deal; long NBIS as the superior Neocloud with real Nvidia capital and equity-appreciating financing.

$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46.

I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read?

$NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing.

-> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS.

$NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital.

-> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat.

$NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures.

And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both.

I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%.

The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points.

IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.

I still am bearish on $IREN.

Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up.

However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes.

So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 https://t.co/bERp6GLRac


$NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing. $NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital. $NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures.


Summary: Long-term bullish on Mag7 recovery despite near-term liquidity drains from SpaceX IPO and geopolitical uncertainty.

Mag7 proxied by MAGS ETF (Magnificent 7)

The US tech selloff from $MSFT, $GOOGL and $META looks really overdone now?

Mag7 roughly down:

Microsoft down -21.9% YTD
Google down -7.69% YTD
$AMZN down -7.36 YTD
Meta down -8.54% YTD

What makes things worse is SpaceX IPOing at $1.7T if they get fast-index inclusion.

Mega-IPOs typically serve as a massive market liquidity vacuum (good for SpaceX though)

However, I don’t think markets are truly convinced War in Iran is ending anytime soon.

-> Massive liquidity drain from large caps, -> more upcoming soon with SpaceX IPO
-> despite improving fundamentals

= don’t touch short term options.

Long term I expect Mag7 to recover.


Summary: Bearish HOOD on strategic missteps (prediction markets/crapcoins over intl equities) causing missed earnings; IBKR benefiting with all-time high new accounts.

Product innovation from $HOOD would have been enabling international stock trading ASAP.

Instead they doubled down on "prediction markets" + "raffles" + new crapcoin listings where retail recklessly lose their money.

They also lost retail to $IBKR that now enabled Korean stock trading.

Especially due to international stock growth from Taiwah, Korea, Europe, Japan.

As a result, we saw new IBKR accounts grow to an all time high this quarter (just from qualitative experiences).

My opinion is $HOOD missed earnings since they lost track of what they should actually do to help out retail investors.

If they had retail investors all spending tons of TX fees from int. Equities trading, likely more margin usage, fees, cash on platform, wealth appreciation, and so on, which is the basis of the platform.

Maybe things would have gone better despite digital asset downturn.


They also lost retail to $IBKR that now enabled Korean stock trading. As a result, we saw new IBKR accounts grow to an all time high this quarter


I think it's probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis). I've been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.

Summary: High conviction long photonics sector (CPO focus) on TAM expansion; adding to LITE, AAOI, SIVE on dip despite near-term AAOI ATM overhang.

Photonics sector basket of optical component names

Interesting photonics selloff today on no news?

$LITE down -4.95%
$AAOI down -4.85%
$SIVE down -14.8%
$SOI down -5.73%
$AXTI down -8.13%
$IQE down -12.13%

I think it’s probably the most compelling theme going forward (even more than power semis).

Just tends to be very volatile on the way up.

Surprised about $AAOI though given there’s some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside.

$SIVE as well, given EU Chips Act 2 is next week around photonics, and they’re listed on the blueprint. Same with MSCI/NASDAQ omx inflow next week.

I’ve been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme (CPO especially) given TAM expansion overall next 2 years.


I've been personally adding to positions since I have high conviction in the photonics theme


Surprised about $AAOI though given there's some institutional notes apparently about long term $AMD or $NVDA agreements. (Rosenblatt). Maybe $600m ATM caps some near term upside.


Summary: Long SIVE on MSCI inclusion buying pressure, $6.6M CHIPS Act funding, and gov backstop as critical chokepoint.

Sivers Semiconductors on Nasdaq Stockholm as SIVE.ST

$SIVE just got MSCI inclusion and that's another likely tens of millions buying pressure in 2 weeks.

Then there's new $6.6M CHIPS ACT funding coming in, which is an amazing capital injection.

The largest thing is revenue implications from this CHIPS ACT development, whatever black magic they're working on. Gov backstopping Sivers as a critical chokepoint is a cherry on top.

I personally think it's going much higher.

@aleabitoreddit You love to see it but i have unfilled orders...


Summary: Expects next institutional rotation into external light sources for CPO tech, naming MTSI and Furukawa Electric as beneficiaries.

日本の視聴者に向けて、最新の注目テクノロジーについて発信してくださるのは、いつも本当に素晴らしいですね！

機関投資家の次のローテーション（資金の向かう先）は、「CPO」や $MTSI 、古河電工などの企業が手掛ける同技術向けの「外部光源」になるのではないかと考えています。

とはいえ、現在の個別銘柄の値動きの多くは、マクロ環境の影響を大きく受けているのも事実です。

CPO業界構図（Miraeアナリストノート）

■ Scale-Across（スケール横展開領域）
・CPO ASIC： $AVGO $MRVL
・光トランシーバー： $COHR  $LITE Innolight
・DSP / PAM4： $AVGO $MRVL
・コヒーレントDCI： $CIEN $NOK
・OCS装置：iPronics、Polatis
・光ケーブル / ファイバー： $GLW


if they ban out all the competition, that's largely bullish for SOFI

Summary: Conditional bullish on SOFI if competition is banned out; reduced competitive pressure seen as tailwind.

@FinDataByLig I’m looking out for retail investors, don’t give a sht about lining up the pockets of $SOFI CEO.

But yes if they ban out all the competition, that’s largely bullish for SOFI but enjoy the sht interest rates.

@aleabitoreddit Sounds good for $SOFI then right? Even if overall destructive


Summary: Bullish IQE: MTSI buying it out of debt as strategic investor removes bearish case.

@JeremyMaine4 $MTSI plans to buy $IQE out of debt and be a strategic investor? How could this be bearish.

@aleabitoreddit are you bullish on $IQE after this? isn't dilution a concern?


Summary: Picks 4 high-upside rockets (SIVE, MSSCorp, PCL, AAOI) and 4-5 compounders (Shunsin, Sumitomo, Furukawa, COHR, LITE) for a sub-$300k portfolio.

MSSCorp (6830) TWSE-listed CPO yields inspection company

@Meatusmax Maybe here's what I'd do personally:

"High Upside Rockets":
1. $SIVE
2. MSSCorp
3. PCL
4. $AAOI

Compounders:
1. Shunsin
2. Sumitomo
3. Furukawa
4. $COHR
5. $LITE

@aleabitoreddit For those of us with a sub $300k portfolio. Which 5 names would you pick assuming we want one compounder and 4 high upside rockets?


PCL is PCL Technologies 4977.TW per context


Shunsin Technology listed on TWSE as 6451.TW


Sumitomo Electric listed on TSE as 5802.T in photonics context


Furukawa Electric Co listed on TSE as 5801.T


Summary: Bullish on directed-energy plays like LASR; bearish on legacy missile makers LMT and RTX as funding should shift away from expensive missiles.

Or... instead of spending billions on "cheaper missiles".

Since blowing $3-4M Patriots to down cheap drones isn't working.

We start to do more research and deploy Energy Directed Weapons like $LASR and HPM?

With HEL (High Energy Lasers):

 It's a beam of light... pew pew. $3.50 per shot.

With HPM (High Powered Microwaves) - It's a cone of energy for drone swarms.

Maybe ~$0.05 per burst? Ammo is basically free and infinite.

Even though $LMT and $RTX are developing these too... it's like we just keep buying expensive missiles to line their pockets at this point.

More funding around this infinite ammo new tech, instead used for all those missiles...

Probably could have made energy weapons better by now (eg. fixing problems with dwell time, weather changes, range, power).

Firing billions of dollars of missiles at cheap drones clearly is not sustainable for extended conflicts in Iran.


it's like we just keep buying expensive missiles to line their pockets at this point