Summary: Bullish on AI capex beneficiaries: NVDA, AXTI, SOI, SIVE, IQE, NBIS, MU, SNDK as $3-4T annual spend by 2030 flows through photonics, memory, and neoclouds.

AI capex spend is expected to go to "$3 to $4 trillion annually" by 2030 from $NVDA Jensen Huang projections.

You're not bullish enough.

And it might be a good idea to stay exposed + own the keys of the AI Kingdom:

-> $AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics.
-> $SOI controls the AI buildout with silicon photonics.
-> $SIVE controls laser chokepoints for CPO.
-> $IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics.

All these started off as tiny companies, yet the trillions of projected capex gradually upward to them.

There's many more in other industries as well.

-> AI Capex flows to Neoclouds like $NBIS.
-> AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK.

And many of the "commodity" materials or "science projects" for the past 20 years now a sudden shift in exponential TAM expansion.

We're witnessing the next industrial revolution with Artificial Intelligence + Physical AI.


$AXTI controls the materials buildout with photonics

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'


$IQE controls Western epiwafer supply chains for photonics


industry='Internet Content & Information'


AI Capex flows to memory like $MU and $SNDK


Summary: Bullish FLNC at $3B valuation: rare dual hyperscaler deals + $5.6B+ backlog derisk growth and likely drive massive re-rating.

It’s still premarket…

But +18.66% off $FLNC having 2 direct hyperscaler contracts coming up.

Especially at this tiny MC, having these types of contracts typically leads to massive re-rating. https://t.co/fVroq5VrN4

Agreed high-level directionally, $FLNC compelling at $3B valuation post-earnings after taking a closer look.

Very rare to see a US energy player that small get 2 direct Hyperscaler deals...

The $5.6B+ backlog derisks the company growth, not including new hyperscalers backlog https://t.co/v4xAvGRifv


Summary: Bullish AMSC on expected Trump/DoE funding bias toward 'American'-named companies.

@auer_trist24737 I liked it $AMSC more for exposure because it's called "American Superconductor Corp"

And Trump + DoE are more likely going to give funding to the names with America in its name tbh...

@aleabitoreddit Glad you're in $AMSC as well. Good times ahead!


Summary: Long Harmonic Drive as Western leader in harmonic reduction gears with high humanoid BOM value; author holds a position.

I do like Harmonic Drive (6324) as the Western Leader (eg. harmonic reduction gear) at ~$4.2B MC.

Very large part of robotics/humanoid BOM value.

I actually like Leader Drive more (since it's cheaper for mass production, covers more parts). And maybe Sanhua for $TSLA Optimus.

But prefer to advance Western supply chains with my capital over ones in China.

It's not just profiting off markets, but what you want to get accomplished as well (helping advance US supply chains and Robotics leaders).

Imo harmonic drive (6324) one of the better humanoid exposure names at $4B valuation listed in GS research report.

Personally I picked some up for exposure.

Chinese competitors might be used for mass production.

But personal preference in investing in Western supply chains + https://t.co/ZMHaAOXBQT


Summary: Long AAOI; bullish projections for late-H1 2027 growth mean current earnings misses are irrelevant.

@Jess252530 Yeah I ended up buying that drop and cost averaging up.

It was actually extremely bullish projections, people shouldn't care about the current earnings reports for $AAOI if it's a 2027 late H1 growth company.

@aleabitoreddit Really appreciate that Serenity will post even through volatility. One of very few who do this.  As retail who aren’t as experienced it can be hard to sit through even when you think you’re right.


Summary: Bullish AEHR past $60 on mass order ramp from a major optical transceiver customer; not overvalued, driven by fundamentals.

It's not greed, it's fundamentals. $AEHR went up in price is because they landed the leader in optical transcivers.

This could be $AVGO, $LITE, $COHR, $MRVL, $CSCO or others.

Markets are forward looking. IMO it will blow away $60+ if it shifts into mass order ramp like $AAOI earnings.

@aleabitoreddit $AEHR is interesting but ahead of itself heading into Tuesday earnings…can easily see it fading back to $35-37, orders arent revenues.  And even if they can do $100M in sales, the stock is fairly valued now.  You gotta buy the fear and sell the greed in all of these names.


Summary: Bearish IREN due to $6B ATM dilution financing buildout; would only flip long after dilution cycle completes.

I saw large potential with $IREN last year.

The reason I flipped bearish is because... who is funding the monetization of their GW capacity? It's existing holders getting diluted.

$IREN filed a $6B ATM since they likely didn't have any other way to finance it.

I would consider flipping long again after they already financed their buildout from dilution.

@aleabitoreddit Massive potential on $IREN as will imo. Got the highest ceiling out of the three thanks to their business strategy. It’s the high risk, high reward play in the Neocloud market.


Summary: Expects Enplas to double in 6 months; sub-$1B company serving hyperscalers with chokepoints in photonics/ASIC-GPU testing.

@Letterkees I still think Enplas doubles within 6 months.

Normally you don't see <$1B companies serving to hyperscalers stay in that MC range for too long and they own two different chokepoints in photonics/ASIC-GPU testing.

@aleabitoreddit Carrying me out of the underclass is an understatement 😭

I wanted to ask what your realistic expectations are for Enplas given Japanese companies don’t price hike

Thanks for all you do legend


Summary: Sarcastic reaction to Cramer going all-in on Marvell; implied bearish on MRVL.

****. Sorry $MRVL holders. https://t.co/JMZ16QJRsL


Summary: Long AAOI at $6.69B market cap; vertically integrated transceiver supply chain with hyperscaler demand is a steal.

And... this is why I don't like Jane Street owning the same stocks I do like $AAOI.

They trade volatility, especially with retail favorite names and trigger stop losses/panic.

If you know what you own though:

$6.69B for a US company that makes the entire transceiver supply chain:

From Laser -> Design -> Assembly.

With likely $MSFT, $AMZN, $ORCL buying anything they can make, is a steal for me personally.

With high beta stocks, it's really important to build conviction and manage sizing correctly before entering a trade.

Otherwise you'll end up capitulating the bottom and buying the top over and over.


est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M. We're able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM

Summary: Bullish Sivers on $15-20M passive inflow from NASDAQ Stockholm index + upcoming MSCI inclusion driving institutional buying.

Sivers Semiconductors on Nasdaq Stockholm as SIVE.ST

Wow, NASDAQ just added $SIVE to its Stockholm index.

This is est. to be around ~$15-20M worth of passive inflow, with strict ETF-only being around ~$.5M.

We’re able to see a lot of institutional inflow into Sivers, as this is on top of the MSCI index inclusion EOM. https://t.co/qHYeT8b3Ja

@aleabitoreddit Sweden finally brining in some Sive acceptance.
 https://t.co/Go6l4YaTe1


Summary: Long AAOI as CW laser bottleneck beneficiary with own fab; also long SIVE as elevated Tier-2 player freed from Nvidia allocation constraints.

Yes, $LITE admitting they're forced to buy CW lasers from their competitors is a massive win for $AAOI.

Since they have their own CW Laser fab (and target 350% increase in capacity by 2027).

The massive nuanced takeaway from $LITE earnings call: $NVDA caused a massive upstream bottleneck for CW lasers.

It's likely $COHR and $LITE have multi-year EML agreements, so they're locked up and can't produce enough CW lasers.

A lot of the former "Tier 2" players I own like $AAOI and $SIVE, are likely elevated in status now given they're not fully allocated to Nvidia.

@aleabitoreddit Isn’t this a win for $aaoi because they manufacture their own CW lasers? If they scale that up successfully then it’s clear skies for them


Summary: Strongly bullish on Sivers Semiconductors as deeply undervalued photonic stock not yet priced for upside, with CPO timelines accelerated by NVDA.

Hi, appreciate the more productive discussion.

But I've never seen anyone aside from Europeans complain about 2.5% $13M dilution to get listed on NASDAQ.

Over in the US... we have random Bitcoin miners with $6B+ dilution (over half the MC) just to attempt a pivot and buy GPUs. So the amount to hyperscalers supply chains is very tiny.

And you do realize you're talking about US hyperscalers suppliers right? Like $JBL, $MRVL... All the CPO timelines have been accelerated by $NVDA recently.

If anything Sivers is one of the most undervalued photonic stocks I've seen in the market and definitely not priced for upside yet.

US markets typically price things 12 months in advance, but I understand if Europe does things previous 12 months.

@aleabitoreddit Not sure abot $SIVE's timing. You are confusing  bullish wins with volume production.
- Dilution: 125M SEK issue post-Jabil
- Slow ramp: partners guiding for 26/27
- Priced for perfection: hype means any slip = fast 40% drawdown
Stellar 2-yr thesis, risky short-term.


with the $6B ATM I'm extreme bearish due to structural overhang

Summary: Extremely bearish IREN due to $6B ATM structural overhang from dilution; would only flip long once ATM is exhausted.

Yes, basically it. I’ve been bullish on $IREN last year.

But with the $6B ATM I’m extreme bearish due to structural overhang. But if they manage to raise all that after diluting existing shareholders.

I’d consider flipping long again. This is just market mechanics of dilution…

@aleabitoreddit In fairness to @aleabitoreddit previous posts (last 2 wks), he clearly said he thinks $IREN will do well long term.
He also said he is ok to rebuy only  after the $6B ATM is exhausted on the open market.

The author isn't doom posting about $IREN or scaremongering anybody TBF.


Summary: High-conviction long FOCI as the CPO bottleneck/main supplier for TSM and NVDA; POET seen as overvalued relative to FOCI at comparable market cap.

FOCI fiber optics Taiwan; retrying TWO (OTC market) suffix

HOW DOES $POET ($3.14B) HAVE A HIGHER VALUATION THAN FOCI (3363, $3.1B)???

FOCI IS LITERALLY THE BOTTLENECK FOR CPO VOLUME RAMP AND MAIN SUPPLIER FOR $TSM AND $NVDA.

High conviction Foci outperforms once institutions find this name.

Also, can Foci management please pursue NASDAQ ADR like $HIMX? Thank you.

FOCI (3363) is one of the most undervalued CPO players in the entire market right now at ~$3B.

Their BOM is massive relative to MC and they're expected to capture a dominant market share for $NVDA / $TSM.

You only start to see this show up 2027 / 2028, even though we're https://t.co/QVbwrUPS4E


HOW DOES $POET ($3.14B) HAVE A HIGHER VALUATION THAN FOCI (3363, $3.1B)???


Summary: Long AEHR long-term as customer ramp is early-stage with more wins expected over coming years, though near-term upside is priced in.

@workoutwithp $AEHR long term is very early. The only started volume ramp with one customer…

And others will pick up (like their t1 optical transceiver one) over the next few years.

For current valuations, I’d say it’s more priced in near term.

@aleabitoreddit Are we still early on AEHR?


people are buying into a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM that's slow dripping via a equity facility. Retail not only gave: Exit liquidity. But exit liquidity at massively inflated valuations... you're basically playing pyramid hot potato with the float

Summary: Bearish BOT: trading at 4x NAV with $2B ATM dilution, illiquid assets at inflated valuations, retail exit liquidity trap.

I'm not sure how anyone thought it was a good idea to buy $145m worth of illiquid assets in $BOT that frequently trade under NAV.

For $750M MC.

Even after the 37% drop, it's still ~$490M MC.

On top of that, people are buying into a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM that's slow dripping via a equity facility.

Retail not only gave:

> Exit liquidity.
> But exit liquidity at massively inflated valuations
> While wealth transferring whatever you buy over after the effective ATM got filed.

Maybe the fund had good intentions, but at current valuations:

If you are a retail investor, you're basically playing pyramid hot potato with the float.

$BOT is still trading at 4x NAV.

With a $2,000,000,000 effective ATM.

Even after the 21% drop.

So now it’s ~$600M MC, off $146M in private assets.

Then off those assets, they own ~$37M of Figure.

Which you’re essentially buying at $160B valuations while the leading humanoid https://t.co/nCfgcm0rWJ


Summary: Bearish IREN: upside structurally capped by excessive and toxic dilution structures.

@IggyPacoRico1 I see no reason to long $IREN today when upside is structurally capped with excessive and toxic dilution structures.

$AAOI would have returned 300%+ in the same period $IREN was flat to negative.

@aleabitoreddit This should be fun to watch.  Legend Serenity is a definite IREN bear. Stud Leopold Aschenbrenner has IREN as one of his largest holdings. Only one can be correct. Who is right?


Summary: Bullish on photonics/AI supercycle plays SIVE, AAOI, AEHR, NBIS, AMKR, POET; OpenAI $122B raise fuels 2-year rally, with new supercycles just getting started.

Modest +1,124.09% return over the past year.

Anon, only a few years left to escape the permanent underclass due to AI?

OpenAI raising $122B is enough to fuel the rally for another 2 years.

And new supercycles from photonics < $SIVE to $AAOI >, testing with $AEHR, $NBIS DCs, and advanced packing from $AMKR to $POET.

Is just getting started.


Summary: Dismisses SIVE pullback fears: $700M supply-chain spend + CHIPS Act receipts support forward growth; JBL and MRVL are named beneficiaries.

What pullback it’s $700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains?

People also forget $SIVE was a CHIPS act recipient with likely more follow-ups.

Better to do fundamental analysis on forward growth to derive MC and just wait for it to play out, not look at swiggly lines.

@aleabitoreddit Bit afraid of a $SIVE PULLBACK after the Sharp run.. your take ?


$700M going into $JBL, $MRVl, Ayar, O-Net and other supply chains


Summary: MRVL is a good long-term long.

@StocksAREnuts $MRVL is a really good long term long.

I’m just sharing thought about how a competitor could potentially chokepoint their growth verticals for a rounding error of $350m with $SIVE


I didn't manage to time the very bottom for $META but don't need to in the long run. Not every day does mag7 growing at record paces sell off -20% in short timeframes

Summary: Long META for the long run; views the -20% selloff as a rare buying opportunity in a record-growth Mag7 name.

@mi20483980476 Nice… I didn’t manage to time the very bottom for $META but don’t need to in the long run.

Not every day does mag7 growing at record paces sell off -20% in short timeframes. https://t.co/kLtzZeuFQl


Summary: Bullish FLNC on two new hyperscaler deals not yet in backlog/financials, significant upside for company size.

@Kevin1151268 Uhh… going all in is never the best idea.

But on the bright side $FLNC has two new hyperscaler deals not included in their massive backlog / financials yet.

Supplying to two different hyperscalers is enormous for a company this size, who knows how big the contracts are.

@aleabitoreddit yesterday  all in 😂 https://t.co/g8xJolYM3Z


Summary: Still long RDDT; added more at $125 on the drawdown.

@ram_blings I've trimmed concentrations here and there, but remain long overall. This is $RDDT for example, but I did buy more at $125. https://t.co/u8x8jgEebD

@aleabitoreddit are you reducing exposure to your other longs? im so tempted to use margin on the drawdowns


Summary: LITE capacity booked to 2028 signals massive photonics demand; bullish read across photonics names.

@thgstar2 $LITE capacity order filled into 2028, signaling massive demand for photonics across the board.

@aleabitoreddit Why are all these iqe, soitec, nitto, sive, .. up massive this morning? Any specific news or just picking up from where they left when the war started?


Summary: Long COHR and MRVL as underappreciated 'do-everything' semis; targets 50-100% gains over the next year.

I feel like $COHR and $MRVL are the two "They Do Everything" longs.

That nobody actually knows what they do if you ask them in public.

$NVDA? GPUs.
$INTC? Foundry.

Marvell? No clue.
Coherent? No clue.

They're the Deloitte of Semis.

Both are really solid profitable longs over the next year.

Probably not 200% gains but 50-100% seem reasonable here.


Summary: Long ASML/TSM on capex cycle, UMC on foundry price hikes, and Taiwan OSATs (Shunsin 6451) on demand outstripping supply in CoWoS/SiP/optical packaging.

Just some TLDRs to save you time:

1. $ASML, $TSM earnings = Good Outlook. Semis + capex go brrr.

2. Opus 4.7 + Anthropic go brrr. Software = sad.

3. Samsung go brrr because of partly bc of $TSLA AI Chips.

4. $UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr.

5. Training = brrr in China. H100 rental increase go up. Neoclouds happy.

6. Helium supply shortage = not significant... I've already said this before, but I'm not sure how many times $TSM needs to say this.

7. MLCC, inductor prices = price hike. Will cover beneficiaries later.

8. "Taiwan's OSAT expansion could tighten global test capacity and raise costs"

I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion.  (cowos, sip, optical).


$UMC = price hike for foundry. foundries go brrr.


I went long on Taiwan OSATs recently like Shunsin (6451) for a reason. Demand will just outstrip supply, even after expansion.


They're literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are. And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B.

Summary: Bullish XFAB on CHIPS Act funding, SiPH evaluation by NVDA/NOK, and only high-volume SiC foundry in US; also constructive on power semi peers NVTS, POWI, WOLF and SOI.

X-FAB Silicon Foundries listed on Euronext Paris as XFAB.PA

Bro media… how is $XFAB a meme stock?

Can you not repeat the same mistake with $RPI this time?

They’re literally getting CHIPS ACT funding from the EU because of how critical they are.

And have $NVDA / $NOK evaluating their SiPH side of things, while they traded at a low ~1.28 P/B.

This just reminded me of $SOI low p/b but high growth verticals out of legacy segment drag.

$XFAB was literally mentioned for CHIPS ACT 2 next week in the blueprints… Which focuses around photonics.

The main revenue ramp was around power semis with $NVDA pushing 800 vdc.

So $NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently.

Markets just missed $XFAB, because they’re a lesser known foundry in power semis…But US Dpt. Of commerce pointed them out as the only high volume SiC foundry in the US 2Y ago.

 I just happened to point out the connections.

Just because you don’t understand something, don’t just go call it a “meme stock” with price detached from fundamentals.


$NVTS, $POWI, $WOLF and everyone have been taking off recently.


Summary: AMD/GFS CPO announcement underappreciated for SIVE as likely laser supplier via Ayar SuperNova for MI500 2027; LITE also designed in.

The $AMD and $GFS CPO announcement is probably bigger than markets expect for $SIVE.

With the news, it's likely $SIVE lasers power $AMD's CPO program.

Either through two potential paths:

1. Enosemi (AMD's in-house PIC design post-acquisition). Enosemi's chiplets are fabbed at GF but for the ELS, $AMD could source it from multiple players with $SIVE as the underlying multi-source laser source.

2. Ayar ( $AMD invested in March 2026, Series E). Ayar's SuperNova light source already uses $SIVE DFB laser arrays alongside $LITE.

Ayar's SuperNova is the most likely first-gen CPO path for MI500 in 2027 given timelines and the enormous fundraise last month. That path already has $SIVE designed in alongside $LITE and they both appear with $GFS's slide.

Enosemi becomes more relevant for 2028+ generations?

Regardless, $AMD through Enosemi/Ayar needs lasers for their 2027 MI500 rollout...

It seems likely Sivers ends up powering $AMD's CPO program as the light source since they're designed into Ayar.

The $AMD / $GFS materiality looks large for Sivers.

What a crazy timeline?

Today, $AMD announced it's pushing into CPO and collaborating with $GFS.

This is highly bullish for $SIVE since for CPO/SiPH, it requires external laser light source.

And... guess who are the two public laser suppliers in the GlobalFoundries CPO https://t.co/prOl6zPkAA


Ayar's SuperNova light source already uses $SIVE DFB laser arrays alongside $LITE


Net negative and very material to short term trade ideas. Since it expands the float and it introduces short term selling pressure. I personally cut concentration on the surprising news since it's changes my trade idea with the float structure.

Summary: Cut FLNC concentration on share unlock expanding float; near-term selling pressure overhang, still holding some.

$FLNC 20M share offering if you’re wondering why it’s trading down.

The 20M share is not dilution, but share unlock + transfer. So change of hands.

The biggest problem was the clause that made active shelf-registered resale capacity of the 117,666,665 shares, so there’s an unlock of the other remaining ~97m shares to my knowledge.

Net negative and very material to short term trade ideas. Since it expands the float and it introduces short term selling pressure.

That’s the overhang…

I personally cut concentration on the surprising news since it’s changes my trade idea with the float structure.

But holding some anyway to see where it heads after hyperscaler deals.

Definitely not telling people what to do, presenting new material overhang created by company management.


Summary: Long SIVE as core laser supplier across hyperscaler AI DC and physical AI supply chains; long AEVA for 4D lidar in robotics and self-driving.

Fun fact: Lot of the same companies are often used across different supply chains.

One likely example is: $SIVE as the upstream laser supplier to Boston Dynamics via:

Sivers -> $AEVA FMCW (CW DFB lasers) -> LG Innotek -> Boston Dynamics.

I actually personally liked Aeva for 4D AI first.

Just so happened to find out Sivers was their high confidence laser supplier for 4D FMCW lidar.

So you actually get robotics exposure with photonics while the same CW lasers used for hyperscaler AI DCs.

Near term revenue ramp though it's probably $SIVE supplying laser volume ramp for $NVDA self-driving car related architectures though Aeva.

Humanoids are probably later in 2028?

You can always get more indirect exposure like MU with memory or $INTC with edge CPUs, but of course there's  more direct exposure out there.

Think I've already covered a lot of names in the past like $VPG or Harmonic Drive. But hilariously enough CPO players like $SIVE are a core part of frontier physical AI development.

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts re physical AI so far?


Summary: Long AXT as InP substrate upstream chokepoint; long CPO (co-packaged optics) as next major supercycle.

Did you remember my $AXTI InP substrate bottleneck call last year anon?

IntelliEPI CEO (Q1 2026 ER):

"The InP substrate shortage is a bottleneck for the entire AI infrastructure"

Digitimes: "Taiwan's IntelliEPI warns of severe indium phosphide supply shortage"

I said as photonics ramps: There was going to be a major InP bottleneck as all the next-gen AI architectures go optical.

This was most goated call with AXT as the upstream chokepoint.

I'm usually a few months ahead of time, but they play out directionally.

While I'm sitting in existing bottlenecks up 1800%+, I'm long CPO as the next major supercycle.

@Yalovenko Thanks, we might not see a InP substrate bottleneck yet, but we’ll likely see it when hyperscaler ASICs (TPU, Trainium, Maia, etc.) ramp up -> supply strains like memory mid-2026.

That doesn’t quite mean material providers should be valued like $LITE, but the fact that the


I'm long CPO as the next major supercycle


if they state mass order ramp for 2027 in their earnings call, it's going to get priced in now

Summary: Bullish AEHR: mass-order ramp announcement in earnings call will be priced in immediately, justifying current valuation above near-term revenue.

If $AEHR lands a major optical company like $LITE or $COHR.

It’s not going to show up in current financial numbers because these are small qualification orders before mass volume ramp.

This is misunderstanding how qualification cycles work. Markets are forward looking so if they state mass order ramp for 2027 in their earnings call, it’s going to get priced in now.

@aleabitoreddit $1 billion+ Market Cap for a company who “Reiterated expectations for $25 million to $30 million in revenue for the second half of the year”

🧐🤔🤨

I’m all for investing ahead of financial catalysts but sheeeshhhh


$IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market … There are better longs out there than $IREN

Summary: Bearish IREN: $6B ATM structurally wipes out retail equity; excessive dilution at any price, dwindling moat — avoid.

$IREN filed to dilute $6,000,000,000 at a $11.7B MC.

That is not noise.

This is Iren's way to monetize their 4.5GW capacity by selling all those new shares onto the open market.

If you want some history on how this turns out:

Look at $BKKT that crashed 99% with Mike and $IREN board of directors history with excessive ATMs. Or his recent company $ASST.

It’s accretive to the company and executives: Because it wipes out all retail shareholders and they can always issue SBC.

So they don’t actually care what stock price it needs to be at to sell.

After they’re finished, they have $6B in new cash to use for scaling without paying interest.

But the reason why convertible notes with interest, and $NVDA funding balance sheets is much better for retail capital:

Is because it doesn’t wipe out retail equity to achieve this. Because at this point $IREN looks like the $AMC of datacenters with a dwindling moat, and looming $6B in shares sold into the open market.

Reason I post about $IREN is because

- people dismiss a $6B ATM as “Noise”
- it’s one of the most popular retail “buy the dip” companies that they’re buying into a $6B dilution machine
- people still don’t understand the risk at all.
- the amount they have now is not enough to finance GPUs/GW capacity monetization.
- they likely will have to use the ATM, it’s not “optionality”

Again: I have zero positions in the company.

I’m just warning retail investors that this ATM structurally wipes out your equity appreciation by how structural mechanics of $6B+ ATMs work.

Because $IREN likely needs to sell new shares at any price to monetize their GW, otherwise there would be zero need to file it.

Executives actually don't need to care because they can make up for stock price dropping by issuing SBC like $SNAP.

If you have to wonder if your equity gets wiped out from an excessive ATM:

There are better longs out there than $IREN.

@aleabitoreddit @Kaizen_Investor I feel like you are way too much focused on the dilution. If they excecute their GW pipeline properly the dilution is just noise. Demand for available GW is so massive and i do think most data centers will have massive delays and also though time to get financed. So imo $iren ☝


Summary: Bullish SIVE: Celestial AI's Marvell deal means MRVL buys lasers directly from Sivers, bypassing POET; vertically integrating for higher margins.

Great find. Basically from old investor deck + fundraising amounts:

Looks like Celestial has been direct customers of $SIVE.

So: $MRVL is likely buying lasers direct from $SIVE now instead of through Poet (which bought Sivers lasers to package them).

Since Celestial is designed around Sivers lasers originally.

Marvell probably prepared to vertically integrate away packaging IP +
assembly for higher margins anyway.

Going direct to $MRVL is very bullish for $SIVE.

Just remembered something that we dug up a couple of years ago, and it solidifies our firm belief that Sivers ( $SIVE / $SIVEF ) already has a direct connection to Celestial AI. 🚨

While retail algos panic-sold the Marvell/POET cancellation thinking the bridge was burned, smart https://t.co/ozSvoxdhHX


Summary: Bullish YSS on expected expansion of defense budgets into space.

@LNMDad Don’t have open positions but $YSS is very compelling since I expect defense budgets to keep expanding into space

@aleabitoreddit Serenity, any thoughts on $YSS. Owned it a few weeks back and was just thinking it looked interesting again and now a big pop today on this news


Shunsin (6451). Lot of these exponentially scaling volume shipments won't show up in balance sheet yet, but will likely soon H2. This is called frontrunning the next supercycle.

Summary: Long Shunsin (6451.TW) as Foxconn's advanced optical subsidiary set to ramp CPO switches to 10K units in 2026 with explosive growth; H2 upside not yet in balance sheet.

Per Foxconn shareholder meeting:

CPO switch products expected to begin Q3. 10K units 2026, explosive grow to next year.

Aims/expected to be #1 globally.

Anyone remember which Foxconn subsidiary handles their advanced optical work?

cough.. cough.. Shunsin (6451).

Lot of these exponentially scaling volume shipments won’t show up in balance sheet yet, but will likely soon H2.

This is called frontrunning the next supercycle.


Summary: Holds a long position in FLNC post-earnings, sees 2 new hyperscaler deals as compelling given hyperscalers rarely sign small contracts.

Not sure why people ask these types of questions across every single stock from $AAOI to $LPK under every post?

I've already said multiple times, I have positions after $FLNC earnings announced 2 new hyperscaler deals.

But I do think $FLNC Is compelling since hyperscalers from $GOOGL to $AMZN don't sign small deals in general.

Especially when you look at $MSFT contract with $NBIS a lot of it is a major surprise.


Summary: Bullish NVDA on expected Win Semi stake acquisition; believes market will misread as bearish but it's actually positive.

@Sim_Wizard My guess was $NVDA buying Win Semi stake given their recent history in photonics + size.

Algos/people might mistake this as bearish and sell, but I think it's actually bullish given the nuance of Win Semi's history.

@aleabitoreddit Nvidia stake incoming? Bullish


I expect $RDDT to outperform broader market after these earnings. they just keep printing FCF and growing at fast rates, and raw net income usually drowns out the false narratives

Summary: Long RDDT post-earnings; FCF growth and net income will outperform broader market despite AI-disruption narrative.

@ruth_capital Yeah I expect $RDDT to outperform broader market after these earnings. Algorithms bundle Reddit up with software names disrupted by AI.

But they just keep printing FCF and growing at fast rates, and raw net income usually drowns out the false narratives.

@aleabitoreddit 2X from here very doable and realistic to say the least


Summary: More bullish on POET and SIVE as beneficiaries of NVDA's $2B Marvell spend boosting the celestial ecosystem.

@B38B37 @PhotonCap $NVDA handing $2B to $MRVL does make me a bit more bullish on the celestial ecosystem like $POET and $SIVE.

@aleabitoreddit @PhotonCap "liked" as in it have changed and you are now more bullish on $POET than before ? 😜


Summary: Long both Sivers Semiconductors and GlobalFoundries on fabless scalability via Win Semi and GFS partnerships.

@Leon8995385220 $SIVE likely locked up allocation agreements with Win Semi to scale. And works with $GFS.

Which is why I'm long on them both, easy to scale as fabless, kinda like $NVDA + $TSM.

@aleabitoreddit What about Sivers' production capacity? Isn't that also pretty quickly exhausted given the company's current size?


Summary: CPO is extremely early; optical names like LITE, SIVE, and MSSCorps still have massive upside as CPO will dwarf projections.

@MontagueCap Anything CPO is EXTREMELY early. All the optical companies from the pluggable supercycles like $LITE are now in the tens of billions.

CPO will dwarf a ton of projections, and companies like $SIVE, MSSCorps are still in the $1B range.

@aleabitoreddit Are all those photonics still a buy at these levels or too late now?


companies like $SIVE, MSSCorps are still in the $1B range

MSSCorps is MSSCorp 6830.TW per tweet context


Foci (fau/optical components) ... personally my favorites right now for CPO related stuff. Since they all basically go from 0 to 100 full steam ahead in the next 2 years.

Summary: Author's top CPO picks: SIVE, Foci, Shunsin, MSSCorp — all expected to surge in the next 2 years.

Foci Taiwan CPO; retrying .TWO for Taipei OTC listing

$SIVE (laser), Foci (fau/optical components), Shunsin (packaging/test), MSSCorp (yields) are personally my favorites right now for CPO related stuff.

Since they all basically go from 0 to 100 full steam ahead in the next 2 years.

@aleabitoreddit Can one enter AXTI or SOI now, Serenity? What do you suggest for small retailers: go full port on SIVE, or diversify across 3 to 4 of your picks?


Shunsin (packaging/test) ... personally my favorites right now for CPO related stuff. Since they all basically go from 0 to 100 full steam ahead in the next 2 years.

Shunsin Technology listed on TWSE as 6451.TW


MSSCorp (yields) ... personally my favorites right now for CPO related stuff. Since they all basically go from 0 to 100 full steam ahead in the next 2 years.

MSSCorp (6830) TWSE-listed CPO yields inspection company


I wouldn't have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren't likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time

Summary: High-conviction long on an unnamed $850M photonics company ramping to Apple, Marvell, Jabil, and Ayar within a year.

@centraly22 I wouldn’t have high conviction long on a $850m MC photonics company if they weren’t likely volume ramping to $AAPL, $MRVL, $JBL, Ayar, and others in a years time.

@aleabitoreddit holy shit you are absolutely right. https://t.co/VTRJO3GdjF


Summary: CPU supply tight through 2026-27; INTC and AMD raising prices Q3, TSMC boosting capex — all implicitly bullish on pricing power and demand.

CPU "serious supply shortage"

It's still funny to see CPUs become more like memory day-by-day with the price hikes like $SNDK.

"Server CPUs have jumped between 10% and 20% since March" with

$INTC and $AMD planning to further price hikes Q3.

"CPU supply is likely to remain tight through 2026 and 2027" with "server CPU shortages reaching up to six months for Intel and 8-12 weeks for AMD"

$TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage.

"The main reason behind the fear is the simultaneous outbreak of CPU and AI ASIC demand; inventory currently includes Intel, AMD mainstream generation CPU, and $NVDA's upcoming Vera CPU, all using 3nm process

Looks like we've come full circle?


$TSM is also increasing capex in response to this shortage


Summary: Bullish memory (MU, SK Hynix) on structural demand and high gross margins; bearish EWY on macro/war/energy crisis risk overriding individual performance.

No, I'm largely bullish on memory since I think demand is structural. Price hikes are not, but gross margins will be high for $MU to SK Hynix moving forward.

However, Macro/War overshadows $EWY and other names.

So individual performance won't matter as much if there's a global energy criss.

@aleabitoreddit Do you think memory, namely $EWY is cooked?


Macro/War overshadows $EWY and other names. So individual performance won't matter as much if there's a global energy criss


Summary: Bullish on IQE (5-10x on restructuring/InP), POET (low downside, upside on new partners), AXTI ($10B+ if supply chain weaponized), AAOI (4x in a year possible).

$IQE probably has most binary upside at these levels and legitimately could 5-10x upon successful restructuring and conversion toward InP AI segments.

$POET has pretty low downside risk due to cash balance sheet. I personally wasn’t a fan… but I see the upside if they can qualify with other leading partners aside from Celestial.

$AXTI if they weaponized their supply chain I can see it being $10B+ from $3B. Otherwise current valuations are reasonable .

$AAOI is more so. Can they do it? Yes they can for a 4x in a year.

We’ll see what happens, there’s obviously downside risks with each too like $IQE debt. My thesis was just their raw value in terms of reactors/underlying capacity relative to landmark outweighs mc.

Haven’t said too much since it’s waiting periods for news

@aleabitoreddit In terms of current price what would you ranks the 3 for potential returns

I feel like the best value rn is

$POET $AXTI $AAOI then $IQE


$POET has pretty low downside risk due to cash balance sheet. I see the upside if they can qualify with other leading partners aside from Celestial


$AXTI if they weaponized their supply chain I can see it being $10B+ from $3B


$AAOI is more so. Can they do it? Yes they can for a 4x in a year


Summary: Author very bullish on Shunsin (6451.TW) as a hidden NVDA CPO ramp beneficiary; also implies AVGO CPO/SiPH orders are a durable positive.

Interesting report that I missed that Shunsin (6451) landed $AVGO CPO/SiPH orders…

And their EPS growth rate could reach over 1240%.

Of course this is confidential and is media speculation.

But makes sense that all your top players use Foxconn for optical packaging/test. https://t.co/aqnUQEQdYS

Pretty sure institutions like GS missed Shunsin (6451) at $1.65B for CPO packaging/test/assembly.

Which is why I'm very bullish on it as a completely backdoored, hidden + major beneficiary of $NVDA CPO ramp.

Foxconn is a major supply chain partner among $TSM and $ASX.

But… https://t.co/fTdwipUDXj


Shunsin (6451) landed $AVGO CPO/SiPH orders… And their EPS growth rate could reach over 1240%


Summary: Long LPK as pure-play monopoly on glass substrate laser etching; INTC flagged as having drag vs pure-play exposure.

@MickaelLacoste2 No. Glass substrates are the next advanced packaging wave.

And $LPK has a functional monopoly over laser induced deep etching.

It’s more of pure play exposure to the next packaging paradigm without the drag SKC has or other segments $INTC has.

@aleabitoreddit Bonjour, jouer les résultats qui ont lieu demain n'est t'il pas risqué ? Merci


Summary: FORM likely continues higher but author prefers lesser-known Taiwan/Japan players for more upside.

@JonkooTrades I was long $FORM earlier this year/last year. IMO probably going to keep going up but there’s higher upside from some lesser known players over in Taiwan/Japan.

@aleabitoreddit $FORM I am actually really interested in. Is this a position you’re also long on?


Summary: Long TTD at $22 as a short-term mean reversion play; low conviction; ChatGPT ad monetization angle seen as undervalued catalyst.

Can you believe $TTD was once $139 not too long ago?

Think the short-term ChatGPT monetization angle is undervalued given they’re moving to ads.

I do have short term positions at $22 as a potential mean reversion the bottom, but this is not high conviction by any means. https://t.co/7VMfVACrrl

@TD_btc24 Stuff like $TTD at $22 is compelling, probably 40-50% upside back to low 30's.. Same with $HIMS at $28, I can see mean reversion to $40.

And $RDDT at $163, went long around $140, posted some thesis on the way down to $125, but glad it's recovered a bit.

Could probably chop a


Pretty negative. They have a massive dilution vote from 45m -> 95m shares in 2-3 weeks as well, and I have an extreme distaste for massive dilution cycles.

Summary: Bearish ATOMERA: no-revenue R&D partnership plus massive upcoming dilution vote (45m→95m shares).

Pretty negative. It's big news, but a no-revenue R&D partnership like $LWLG and $TSEM.

They have a massive dilution vote from 45m -> 95m shares in 2-3 weeks as well, and I have an extreme distaste for massive dilution cycles.

But I expect people to just buy into the fomo/news anyway.

@aleabitoreddit What do you think of $ATOMERA? And their recent collab with Synopsys? Theirs definitely some validity there.


there's some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own

Summary: Author suggests LPK, ALRIB, and Towa as monopoly/duopoly plays with multibagger potential in glass substrates, quantum/MBE, and HBM4 molding.

European “monopolies” like $LPK (Glass Core Substrates) have also been going brrr lately.

$ALRIB is technically a duopoly but it’s there too… (Quantum / MBE)

Then there’s some over in Japan like Towa for (HBM4/compression molding) too that I own.

Usually monopolies get higher multiples.

I'll mention some more over time, just gotta find them all.

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit  Hey Serenity. what other gems do you suggest for multibagger returns like SIVE? Just want to diversify the portfolio a bit. Thanks!!


Summary: Both POET and SIVE flagged as beneficiaries/key suppliers to NVDA and MRVL Celestial platform.

@marioyep5 Yes, $POET is beneficiary but $SIVE is incredibly important to $NVDA and $MRVL Celestial now as the light source. https://t.co/mn3oESTKlw

@aleabitoreddit Should $POET experience some upside as well given the integration


Summary: Still long 2028 LEAPS on EWY and flags DRAM ETF as vehicles for memory exposure, expecting Samsung/SK Hynix to be printing.

@ArkhamInvests I'm still personally long 2028 leaps on $EWY for memory exposure. Those are up over triple digits, since I expect Samsung/Sk Hynix to be printing.

$DRAM was another good vehicle for exposure.


$DRAM was another good vehicle for exposure


Summary: TOWA remains a critical chokepoint even under HBM5 hybrid bonding; not threatened by the process shift.

TOWA Corp listed on TSE as 6315.T (HBM compression molding)

@johndoestocks Good question, $TOWA is still a must have so not a concern.

Even with hybrid bonding end of decade hbm5, they might just lose one step of the process but remain a critical chokepoint

@aleabitoreddit Any concerns with HBM5 expected to use hybrid bonding instead of $TOWA compression?


今年の下半期に向けてTOWAの業績は伸びると確信してるよ。それに、市場は今回の決算を誤解してると思うから、たぶんここから持ち直すんじゃないかな。

Summary: Bullish TOWA into H2: earnings growth expected and market misread Q results; expects price recovery from here.

うん、現実の人たちの生活に影響が出るってわかってるから、たとえ短期的なスパンであっても、自分の考えが間違っていると本当に辛いんだ。
だから、間違いないって確信できるくらい、全力でリサーチするようにしてる。
全てが思い通りにいくわけじゃないけど、それでも今年の下半期に向けてTOWAの業績は伸びると確信してるよ。
それに、市場は今回の決算を誤解してると思うから、たぶんここから持ち直すんじゃないかな。

@aleabitoreddit 日本株は値動きはげしいね。
セレニティが推奨した銘柄買う人は、エントリーについて特に日本株は気をつけてほしい。


AXTI becomes a mini-monopoly. The valuation comes from owning the entire supply chain, not just 'InP substrate creation'

Summary: Long AXTI: controls entire InP supply chain (raw materials, pBN crucibles, substrates), not just substrates — mini-monopoly thesis; COHR dependent on AXTI upstream.

Retail short sellers should really not touch $AXTI.

I keep seeing people misunderstand $AXTI as only "InP Substrate" with Sumitomo, over and over but just never made a comment.

This is wrong.

They are literally 40%+ of the InP supply chain, which is why institutions are funding them.

They hold MANY chokepoints, not just InP Substrates.

As seen with the Gulf, removing ~20% of a supply is catastrophic, but do that with 3-4 other chokepoints.

-> All the raw materials (indium, gallium, germanium).
Vital and $AXTI (captive, JinMei) are the duopoly alongside Chinese companies. With Western 5N and others only holding a small fractional share.

Since China (Vital, AXT) controls majority.

-> pBN Crucible chokepoints:

$AXTI is a another massive chokepoint (BoYu). there's a few other players like ShinEtsu/Morgan/etc, but this is another bottleneck in refinery layers.

InP substrates:
$AXT / Sumitomo are duopoly here, with JX, $COHR holding just a tiny percentage.

There's many other processes (eg. Red Phosphorus) here too (eg. Nippon Chemical/Rasa) in the middle.

This is a materials problem.

$COHR can't just make InP substrates without all the upstream materials + refineries that $AXT controls.

If $LITE CEO can't sleep at night because of InP substrates, $5B valuations mean nothing to the Western hyperscaler buildout stay online.

Japan is actively getting export controlled on upstream materials, while AXT holds them all captive.

So TLDR: It's not just "InP Substrates" that i see a lot of short sellers conflating.

It's all the indium, gallium -> refinery processing -> pBN Crucible that goes into the final duopoly InP substrate creation process they share with Sumitomo.

if Vital and multiple chokepoints upstream stops shipping, downstream to the Western InP substate makers.

AXTI becomes a mini-monopoly.

The valuation comes from owning the entire supply chain, not just "InP substrate creation" that even institutional analysts dont understand.

$AXTI is a short bro. If they 4x quarterly revenue by 2028, that puts them at ~$400M annual revs. They are a $5.2B MC company. We paying 13x FY28 revenue for this stock for real?

Yes, they are one of few suppliers of InP, but it's not necessarily proprietary. It was a small TAM


$COHR can't just make InP substrates without all the upstream materials + refineries that $AXT controls


Summary: Bullish RDDT: underappreciated despite high profitability and growth because it lacks AI capex narrative.

There's some things in the market that don't make much sense.

$RDDT is the perfect example post-earnings.

One of the most profitable names right now with high growth...

But if it's related to software or not burning $1T+ in AI capex, markets don't care? https://t.co/uWJ55OuZMO


Summary: Bearish COIN: author claims Coinbase will betray the crypto industry after securing its conditional banking charter under the Clarity Act regime.

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'

Let's get this straight: The Clarity Act is a bank lobbyist bill.

Where JPM and others lobbied both sides to get control over digital assets / $CRCL stablecoins.

$COIN is probably going to sell out the industry because they got their conditional banking charter approved.

But effectively, this bans competition in yields:

-> So banks can continue offering .3% interest checking accs.

Instead of handing out 4.3% treasury yields and keep the 4% difference.

-> Hands them chokepoints over on/off-ramps and stablecoins.

-> Bans any non-banks from offerings, like startups giving out 4.3% yields by holding stablecoins.

Their claim?

1. “Safety”. These are the same institutions that operate on fractional reserve models and would GG on a bank run vs. 1-1 collateralized tokens.

2. “Just become a bank”. While they secretly lobby behind the scenes to prevent any new competitive firm from becoming a bank.

If you want to see how it's things are doing under this administration:

Just look at how things are going.

Any genuinely helpful to retail are just going to get banned.

The last administration drove away the digital asset industry. It’s time to welcome them home with clear rules of the road.

Pass the Clarity Act.


Summary: Still bullish VLN despite market disagreement; EV ~$27M vs $105M net assets and 60% margins makes valuation look deeply undervalued.

As for $VLN, I don't think I'm wrong. But markets clearly disagree with my opnion.

 I've learned two things:

- Some stocks like Japanese ones can trade way under book value
- Markets don't like stocks from Israel like $ETOR for some reason (lost a lot on that too).

I still think it's undervalued. Net assets ($92.6M pure cash) vs. $132M MC.

Net assets is $105M with zero debt.

So EV is ~$27M? For a growing company with 60% GAAP gross margins on $70.6M FY 2025 revenue.

So valuation looks stupid. But somehow stocks operate that way.

@aleabitoreddit What about $VLN ? The valuation mismatch or name misunderstanding which you believed never played out ?


Summary: Bullish LITE as a supercycle beneficiary blowing away projections.

@Liudas Was showing baseline modeling, if they hit upper bounds of unit projections (eg. ~4m units instead of 3.5), it hits 20.

And I do expect the next architectural "supercycle" to blow away a lot of projections like what's happening with $LITE and their supply chain rn.

@aleabitoreddit Help me understand. Your model shows NT$1.87B net income in 2027. At ~20x that's roughly NT$37B market cap — but the stock is already at NT$46B today. What multiple are you actually using?


個人的に銘柄としてすごく推してたのに！

Summary: Strongly recommends Shunsin (6451) as a rare de-risked play in NVDA's CPO supply chain.

@beauty_oe 日本の人たちが6451にアクセス（取引）できないのはショックだな。個人的に銘柄としてすごく推してたのに！

$NVDA のCPOサプライチェーンで、あそこまでディリスクされた企業はレアだったよ。

6451 Shunsin

日本から買える証券会社探しましたが、ありませんでした🥺


Summary: Bearish AXTI if dilution vote passes on the 14th; also flags IREN's $6B dilution as a red flag with same bearish logic.

If you’re curious about $AXTI:

It’s down 21% on the new potential dilution news.

Board wanted to add 50M more shares (up to $2B worth to dilute) for shareholders vote in the 14th.

70m -> 120m shares.

I say this about $IREN excessive $6B dilution and it’s the same with AXT price proposal that I hold.

I would not “trust in management” to use it wisely and the fact it’s filed is a red flag.

That being said: we’ll see what happens on the 14th. If it passes for 50m more share authorized dilution, I personally would not hold.

But it fails, I expect a recovery.


I say this about $IREN excessive $6B dilution


Summary: Extremely bullish CPO sector on 55,000%+ growth curve from $164M to $91B by 2028; names SIVE, SOI as key plays on NVDA-driven architectural shift.

Just reiterating my disbelief:

I have never seen a sector more bullish than CPO.

GS reported Optical TAM 9X from $15b in 2026 -> US$154b in 2028

CPO making up $91B of that.

Starting from ~$164M (Modor for 2026 / sampling) to $91 Billion (GS 2028)

55,000%+ CPO growth curve starting from today

This is exactly why algorithms / analysts mess up because they might look at TTM revenue at these CPO names.

But everything happens in the next two years with $SIVE to Shunsin to MSSCorps to $SOI.

This is Zero to 100 from a massive architectural shift pushed by $NVDA.

I genuinely still don't think retail or markets understand what's coming yet.


This is Zero to 100 from a massive architectural shift pushed by $NVDA


Summary: Bullish AEHR into earnings; multiple hyperscaler/optical transceiver qualifications suggest volume ramp projections and positive repricing around this ER.

$AEHR earnings should be fun.

I haven't seen so many hyperscalers/optical transceiver (prob $AMD, $GOOGL, $INTC, and others) companies qualifying a small $1.3B company before.

My guess is maybe next earnings, we'll see more volume ramp projections? They just begun qualification with that new optical transceiver company last week.

Would be nice if it happened this ER though. Markets are forward looking, so a lot of the repricing would happen around now imo.

@aleabitoreddit $AEHR’s earnings is this week by the way


Summary: Long SIVEF and AAOI on near-term CPO volume ramp; bearish ALMU/QD as years away from relevance.

MicroLED still feels far away before any CPO related volume ramp per Goldman Sachs note.

Quantum Dot like $ALMU / QD isn't even mentioned since it's way way out by years.

In a correction, "premiums" disappear, but valuation floors are backed by revenue.

$SIVEF or $AAOI on the other hand are volume ramping soon <8M and directly in the CW space.

Would prefer immediate upside after years of R&D/expansion...

Than waiting years at the beginning for R&D into sampling into qualification... Then inflection point of volume ramp.

"Technology readiness" is low for MicroLED.

@aleabitoreddit Its because MicroLED is far superior


Quantum Dot like $ALMU / QD isn't even mentioned since it's way way out by years


it does matter for future revenue recognition, when they dont have satellites in space... this hurts forward earnings growth a lot... Seems like in a pretty bad spot

Summary: Bearish ASTS on delayed launches hurting forward revenue/earnings growth; bullish RKLB as beneficiary of Blue Origin failure.

Space sector with $ASTS looks like it’s having fun.

Lot of optimism on X somehow, even after Blue Origin had a major failure... (positive for SpaceX and byproduct $RKLB.)

As for $ASTS it does matter for future revenue recognition, when they dont have satellites in space.

Blue Origin launches probably got delayed a ton of months, maybe like ~4-7M?

If a company that is priced primarily by forward growth gets delayed.

Then it's not just one satellite, but the subsequent ones ones as well... this hurts forward earnings growth a lot (since it doesn’t look like they hit 45 targets)

After months of investigation Blue Origin will likely be backlogged from $AMZN Kuiper and DoD payloads too.

Seems like in a pretty bad spot being dependent on their competitor SpaceX.

Definitely not "immaterial" as others were claiming with their squiggly line charts, but no comment about buying opportunity.


Summary: Long XFAB for long-term growth in power semis and photonics; not trading volatility, committed to the thesis.

I mean all my European longs from $SOI, $IQE, $RPI, $SIVE, $ALRIB followed this trend if we just look at chart.

Long term they’ve all ended up directionally right, and now they’re all up hundreds of percent.

I don’t control or trade volatility with $XFAB, but interested in being a part of their long term growth vectors with power semis/photonics.

@aleabitoreddit you have a great track record and seem to do this for the right reasons, and you have specific knowledge of the tech. Price currently only 10%  up on yesterday. Don’t expect $SIVE success but even a 2* rating would be a win. If people want a 1 day win they should looks elsewhere


Summary: Extremely bullish AAOI on manufacturing scale; extremely bullish Sivers on unique IP moat with major CPO hyperscaler adoption.

$AAOI is more pure manufacturing scale and I'm extremely bullish on them.

So it's more like Furukawa + Innolight in my view? So extremely bullish for revenue ramp.

$SIVE is just pure one-of-a-kind IP, where major CPO hyperscaler supplier seems to all use them, like Ayar/Celestial and others.

Even $JBL made groundbreaking 1.6T LRO moats with Sivers.

Sky is the limit here with Sivers and they can always vertically integrate like $COHR / $AAOI down the road too with capex spend.

But their main focus right now should just creating the largest IP moat possible + outsource manufacturing to keep capex light.

Can always vertically integrate the assembly, laser fab down the road too.

I like them both for different reasons.


Summary: Bullish MRVL on earlier-than-expected Celestial volume ramp; bullish Sivers on accelerating CPO orders past 2027.

CPO expectations have been bumped up months with $NVDA accelerating everything in the ecosystem as seen with $ASX. So I expect Celestial to be delivering volume much earlier than $MRVL projections than 2028.

Main thesis was $SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027.

Markets usually are forward looking

@aleabitoreddit the Celestial AI photonic fabric isn't expected to generate meaningful Marvell revenue until ~2028. the Amazon warrant vests on actual purchases through 2030. the volume ramp is years away


$SIVE was $JBL 1.6T bridging the gap with Sivers into accelerating volume orders past 2027


Summary: Long SIVE as top CPO/photonics pick; targets $80B+ market cap long-term; holding and adding; LITE cited as valuation comp implying eventual upside.

$SIVE is the most compelling CPO/photonics exposure to me.

Addressing the disinformation: I haven’t sold and don’t plan to sell a single share.

I do think this ends up the next $80B+ $LITE one day from ~$2.1B.

And I personally have plans to acquire more ownership + support their M&A prospects.

I believe earnings transcripts will be strongly positive.

As in the part few months we’ve discovered:

> AlChip/Amazon private placements, which is positive for Ayar -> $SIVE implying Trainium 4 design in

> Wiwynn + Ayar CPO scale up

> $JBL 1.6T optical transceiver ramp with Sivers incoming faster than markets expected (with relatively dramatic moat + demand as much as they can produce)

> O-Net scaling up ELS efforts with $SIVE

> $YSS acquisition of $SIVE allspace lead partner, designing Sivers into Space defense primes

> New CHIPS ACT funding for $SIVE

> $POET H2 volume ramp and their new $50m -> $500m order (with $SIVE as light source)

> information discovery around $AAPL using $SIVE lasers for next gen consumer devices

> information discovery around links to Lightelligence (went public $10B+ MC) + Lightmatter as likely customers.

> Celestial volume ramp with $MRVL indicators.

> new customers working on TFLN with $SIVE like Lightium

> $AMD going with $GFS for CPO, and GFS listing sivers as one of two laser suppliers

> Ayar removing $MTSI / $LITE from their website and signaling $SIVE as primary source/sole source

> Ayar raising $500m for volume ramp (intel, Mediatek, Nvidia, amd etc)

> pluggable TAM expansion signaled from 2025 annual report

> Nasdaq listing expected soon

> MSCI small cap index / Nasdaq omx inclusion, making Blackrock, Vanguard and others passive buyers

> M&A signaled from 2025 annual report + 2 new board members that have experience in that area

> $NOK as likely customer from 2025 annual report.

> $LITE getting cw bottlenecked from EML contracts, $SIVE signaling capacity agreements in place with Win, making the a likely bottleneck owner + chokepoint in CPO sector.

All of this market research was done before earnings.

Any results is just confirmation of supply chain mapping done.

I don’t think anyone cares about former quarter revenue since $SIVE is an exceptionally compelling 2027 long, especially H2 onward.

Only thing I’m looking at are:

> TAM expansion of the overall photonics supercycle (eg. optical engine, ELS, pluggables) either from M&A or developments

> volume ramp expectations from existing companies

> Nasdaq listing timelines for more liquidity to support their M&A efforts

> any new customers signaled for CPO/Pluggables


My favorite... i made a mini ETF of with $AMSC

Summary: Long basket of Defense Production Act grid-infra beneficiaries (AMSC, CLF, PLPC, HPS.A held; POWL flagged for likely DOE contracts in 3-6 months).

Yes. The President invoked the "Defense Production Act" 2 days ago.

To expand on domestic infra.

Implicit beneficiaries were:

Transmission & Advanced Conductors:
$AMSC - HTS Wires (advanced conductors), power electronics
$PLPC - advanced conductors
$ATKR - transmission components
$VMI - grid components

Power Electronics
$AEIS - power control electronics
$VICR - power delivery

Capacitor Banks
$VSH - power capacitors and capacitor banks

Substations & High-Voltage Circuit Breakers
$POWL - substations/switchgear
$AZZ - substations

Transformers
$HPS.A - My favorite for transformers
$SPXC - power transformers

Electrical Core Steel
$CLF - Only producer of electrical steel in America?

This included:
-Transformers
- transmission components
- advanced conductors
- power electronics
- substations
- high-voltage circuit breakers
-  protective relays, capacitor banks
- electrical core steel

TLDR: The executive action declared a national energy emergency regarding the domestic supply chain for grid infrastructure. Authorized federal funding, purchase commitments, and expedited actions to rapidly expand the manufacturing.

Lot of beneficiaries, I made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A; dont have any of the others.

There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like " DoE Awards ___ to $POWL " off this act is my guess.

@aleabitoreddit Did you look into superconductor companies like $asmc yet?


i made a mini ETF of with $AMSC, $CLF, $PLPC, and then $HPS.A


There's probably going to be a bunch of DOE contracts in the next 3-6 months like 'DoE Awards ___ to $POWL' off this act is my guess


Summary: Author says POET and SIVE are not fully priced in on large purchase orders and MRVL supplier relationship.

Oh wow, I missed this.

That's probably why $POET is up 20.2% pre-market confirming "far in excess" of purchase orders on top of $MRVL supplier relationships.

That translates materially to $SIVE laser production as well.

Markets haven't fully priced in either yet imo.

@aleabitoreddit $POET CFO also said that he's expecting purchase orders "far in excess" of the $5 million order they received last Oct.

If these orders come through, revenues could ramp meaningfully in the coming quarters https://t.co/jKUN350TIm


I'm actually bullish on $ETH again around $1.6k-2.2k

Summary: Bullish ETH at current $1.6k-2.2k range after prior bearish stance at $3-4K.

@halldj00 So I was bearish on Ethereum earlier at $3-4K. I’m actually bullish on $ETH again around $1.6k-2.2k.

That said, I’m slightly bearish overall on the market due to escalating Iran tensions, and Ethereum typically isn’t the flight to safety asset.

@aleabitoreddit Are you bullish on Ethereum?


Summary: Bullish AAOI into next year; another 3x possible if it becomes the largest 1.6T + laser fab in the US.

@ExtensiveRsrch I called out $AAOI at like $30 and it's like $160 now?

Less likely to 3x as fast but next year it's possible if they become largest 1.6T + laser fab capacity in US.


Summary: Regrets not being long VIRT via calls; market makers benefit from volatility spike on Hormuz blockade news.

The US navy to blockade any ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz.

Not quite sure what the game plan is here?

Regardless, I completely forgot to take call options on market makers like $VIRT.

Since they are probably cheering and profiting off of increased volatility in these environments…


going long on Broadcom and Marvell doesn't hurt too

Summary: Long AAOI, JBL, SIVE as top beneficiaries of 1.6T optical module mass adoption supercycle; also long AVGO and MRVL as cited beneficiaries.

“1.6T optical modules are near mass adoption this year”

So nothing new but this just confirms timelines for volume production/mass adoption H2 2026.

$AVGO and $MRVL are cited as main beneficiaries in the report but names like $AAOI are probably the most profound beneficiaries (largest 1.6T capacity US projected) for the pure play exposure.

$JBL also set to go brrrr but my guess is H1 2027 with wave2 architectures since their LRO architectures remove the DSP (with $INTC SiPH acquisition IP).

Jabil would be a good contrarian long in the broader 1.6T supercycle coming up if this gets broader adoption from $META validation but benefits anyway.

And especially $SIVE that powers Jabil 1.6T LRO, that when they scale, it scales laser demand too.

I think everyone focuses on the upstream supply chains nowadays but going long on Broadcom and Marvell doesn’t hurt too.


names like $AAOI are probably the most profound beneficiaries (largest 1.6T capacity US projected) for the pure play exposure


Jabil would be a good contrarian long in the broader 1.6T supercycle coming up


Summary: Recommends IBKR as best broker for international stock access with best execution.

@japhy_zeng I recommend $IBKR for international stock access. Probably want to get an account anyway since they have the best execution

@aleabitoreddit How do you trade international stocks like $SIVE . It is not available to buy on platforms like Webull and Fidelity. Great work by the way. 🐐


Summary: Long ALRIB on hyperscaler quantum/silicon photonics exposure; duopoly supplier re-rating to triple digits. VECO named as duopoly partner at low multiples.

It doesn't need to be detailed with $ALRIB?

> Riber effective, profitable duopoly with $VECO on MBE equipment, that traded at low fwd multiples.
> $MSFT Quantum as core hyperscaler buyer of Riber from public information discovery
> $IQE, QD Laser (Quantum dot), IntelliEPI and others using it.

Thought process:

What other companies under $1B supply directly to hyperscalers like $GOOGL to $MSFT for their frontier programs?

And are critical suppliers that can't be replaced?

Can't really name any aside from $AEHR, but that's now $2.3B from $600m...

So thought $ALRIB was compelling for Quantum/Silicon Photonics exposure.

If a profitable ~300m company is powering a hyperscaler's quantum frontier program…

Probably going to get re-rated triple digits over time.

@aleabitoreddit I think many people are interested in your detailed thoughts on $ALRIB.


disclosure I do own Sandisk... Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year

Summary: Long SNDK and memory sector broadly; blowout Q3/Q4 guidance confirms memory companies will keep marching higher through the year.

$SNDK earnings are just way too good...

Q3 earnings:
Revenue: $5.95B vs. ~$4.7B (252% Y/Y growth, 26% beat)
EPS: $23.41 vs. ~$14.5 (62% beat)
Gross Margin: ~78.4% vs. 67.3% (+1,110 bps vs. Est.)

Q4 2024 projections:
Revenue: $7.75B-$8.25B vs. ~$6.5B (23% above estimates)
EPS: $30-33 vs. ~$23 (37.0% above estimates)

Memory companies (disclosure I do own Sandisk) are a bit easier to price in ahead of time vs. names like $RDDT (off of traffic data).

Just purely from third party stuff like NAND price hike reports... so all the repricing does happen ahead of time, not on actual earnings.

Regardless, this is formal confirmation that memory companies are going brrr...

Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year.


Astronomical earnings from memory players and they'll likely keep marching upward over this year

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, Macronix, Winbond


Yeah there's bear cases around Meta capex but it's growing forward revs 30-33% Y/Y round ~17 fwd p/e so that spend is definitely delivering ROI. But at this point the selloff looks way overblown

Summary: Buyer of META and RDDT; selloff overblown — META growing 30-33% at 17x fwd P/E, RDDT at 24x EV/FCF with 91% margins and 52% growth.

Are we not using social media anymore?

$SNAP down -50.6% YTD
$RDDT down -44.6% YTD
$PINS down -32.2% YTD
$META down -26.35% 6M

Companies like Snapchat with excessive SBC makes sense…

Yeah there’s bear cases around Meta capex but it’s growing forward revs 30-33% Y/Y round ~17 fwd p/e so that spend is definitely delivering ROI.

But at this point the selloff looks way overblown especially with Reddit with fwd ev/fcf: ~24x; 91% gross margins, 52% growth?

Everyone’s hyper focusing around “AI” disruption but if anything, it makes these social media companies more lean/profitable.

I’m a buyer here. But a confused one.


the selloff looks way overblown especially with Reddit with fwd ev/fcf: ~24x; 91% gross margins, 52% growth? I'm a buyer here.


Summary: Long SIVE as architecturally unique CW laser chokepoint for CPO players with volume ramp in 2027; also long AAOI into H1 2027 ramp.

Photonics is nuanced and using ChatGPT/Gemini makes you miss all of it:

1. $SIVE is actually a chokepoint and partially a bottleneck.

The reason it's a chokepoint is leading CPO/optical hyperscaler players go through Sivers, likely:

Ayar. Celestial. Lightmatter. Lightelligence. Poet.

If you take out Sivers, you literally can't make some of their products + delay their roadmap by years.

As many are sole/primary source but are heading the direction on multi-source.

As for the bottleneck argument: Win Semi is the bottleneck for scaling laser production.

But... the nuance is when you have capacity allocated for the next few years.

You become part of the bottleneck itself if players fight you for allocation of finished lasers.

That's the nuance people miss with capacity allocation dynamics.

It's like saying $SNDK is not part of the NAND bottleneck when Kioxia makes all of it.

But when Sandisk has the ultimate control of output supply, they become the bottleneck + have all the pricing power.

Sivers controls output supply of CW lasers given allocations, and as seen with $LITE earnings, CW laser is currently bottlenecked as everyone seems to be stuck producing EMLs.

2. Like how LLMs always uses em-dashes.

You can tell when people use AI when they always use the same "CW is a dumb interchangeable laser" argument or compare "power" specs after conflating different architectures.

That's why your "analysts" using AI will get this wrong over and over.

There's CW lasers... and then there's a specific architectural design that Sivers achieves with DFB lasers.

If you compare power specs with $LITE vs. Sivers, Lumentum wins in isolation. But they're completely different laser architectures.

All the leading CPO players like Ayar, chose $SIVE for an architectural reason for high power, low thermal, laser arrays. $JBL 1.6T LRO also made one of the most dramatic moats cited by their fireside chat, using Sivers lasers.

If you think CW lasers are interchangeable with Sumitomo/Furukawa, and others. And can be plug-and-play... i don't know what to tell you?

Again: $SIVE makes architecturally unique CW lasers for leading CPO players.

3. I'm not sure how many times I need to say this:

$SIVE for 2024-2025 has been going through development contracts. People using TTM revenue or former P/S metrics are using completely the wrong metrics, when there's volume ramp in 2027.

It's the same with $AAOI which volume ramps in H1 2027.

$AEHR which volume ramps after qualification.

$LPK that volume ramps after qualification.

This is just missing qualification cycles in semiconductors and how to model financials currently.

As for the $LITE comparisons (which was also my long last year):

$LITE literally started off selling laser dies before acquisition of Cloud Lite and other downstream optical engine components.

This is where $SIVE is at today with starting off in the laser chokepoint for CPO:

People are modeling laser revenue off very isolated TAM projections. Meanwhile Sivers is targeting M&A to expand revenue for TAM projections.

This is not a simple component FAU + ramp valuation modeling over with a Taiwanese company.

Since Laser companies like $LITE, $COHR are known to downstream expand to make their lasers more valuable, then vertically integrate (fabs, assembly) afterward.

Again, Sivers worked with Ayar and these types of companies before they all became billion dollar companies. I have high conviction knowing they know what to acquire down the ELS/optical engine stack + pluggable transceiver for TAM expansion.

It's just annoying when I get people who don't understand the nuances backseat commenting wrong things about my longs.

I got the same thing about $AXTI is not a bottleneck! InP isn't needed! China! back at $14.

Now it's $140

I got the same thing about $AAOI "is going down 50%!" back at $65. or "AOI management is shady at $30".

Now it's $170

I got the "there's nothing new with $SOI" back at $45.

Now it's $170.

I think I'm one of the few who actually understands the nuances with photonics, since I did call out $LITE, $TSEM, Innolight, $AXTI, $AAOI, $SOI, that outperformed both photonics markets and overall markets over the past year.

And now I'm long on $SIVE.


Summary: Bullish AAOI: endless hyperscaler orders + potential to become largest 800G/1.6T US player implies massive revenue upside.

Applied Optoelectronics ( $AAOI ) said it received a new $71 million order from its hyperscaler customer today.

The orders flowing in are endless.

If they become the largest 800G/1.6T capacity in the US and optical demand does take off.

The revenue translation would be pretty insane.


Summary: Long SIVE/SIVEF; author claims 10x upside in ~1 year as Apple, Jabil, and Marvell ramp laser mass production in 2027.

Did you listen anon?

The fact that $SIVE is up 600%+.

But still can 10x from here in a year... once ~ $AAPL, $JBL, and $MRVL require mass production of their lasers in 2027.

Is incredible.

Probably my most legendary thesis post since $AXTI. https://t.co/8rOZNdV9bX

The more I look into Sivers
< $SIVE /  $SIVEF >

the more I wonder:

How is the laser company for the hyperscaler photonic supply chains…

Valued at ~$200M USD MC?

All the companies that buy and repackage their lasers are now worth $1-4B+?

Pre-product SV AI companies are https://t.co/0hrfWo98Or


Summary: Bullish on SIVE and AMZN via Ayar/AlChip Trainium supply chain connection, calling it more bullish than POET's $500m order.

@DanilSer33 The new $SIVE / Ayar / AlChip / $AMZN trainium supply chain is more bullish than the recent $POET $50m -> $500m purchase order.

Markets probably won’t see the connection between Ayar AlChip and $SIVE unless someone points it out though.

@aleabitoreddit Well.. I haven't thought the news flow will this bullish in such a short period of time


Summary: GFS CPO/photonics webinar names SIVE, FN, LITE, ATEYY, KEYS as architectural suppliers; author flags inclusion as bullish for each named beneficiary.

Did $GFS give the first direct confirmation about $SIVE...

As the laser supplier for their CPO / photonics ecosystem?

This is explicit laser architectural inclusion vs. previous supply chain mapping with Ayar/Celestial.

You get a hint of the other major players here:
- $FN / $ASX for assembly
- $LITE / $SIVE for lasers
- $ATEYY / $KEYS for testing.

There's no text-based news yet, since this was the $GFS March 2026 webinar image-based presentation.

But having a <$1B company on the tiny list of laser providers next to $LITE...

Quite special right?


industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'


I still have my AXT positions. But selling off any laser or upstream player doesn't make much sense and it's a good buying opportunity for some.

Summary: Still long AXTI; views any selloff in laser/upstream photonics players as a buying opportunity.

They're all different parts of the supply chains. $AXTI makes the materials needed for anything to do with photonics. I still have my AXT positions.

Packaging layer players might be impacted given nuances of hyperscaler vertical integration.

But selling off any laser or upstream player doesn't make much sense and it's a good buying opportunity for some.

@aleabitoreddit Will this impact $AXTI ? You still long on this one?


Markets are more resilient than people think... I'd remain long

Summary: Remain long on US markets: heavy short positioning + OpenAI capex spend alleviates contagion fears; indexes still down YTD.

Markets are more resilient than people think.

Obviously escalation is concerning, but there's too many people short right now (which adds fuel to the fire) and indexes are still down YTD.

OpenAI raised $122B+ for capex spend, so I'd remain long (main contagion fears recently were related to them not being able to fulfill contract obligations)

@aleabitoreddit If this sticks, markets going to get crushed this week.  Things intensifying..


Summary: Long POET as massive Celestial AI/Nvidia ecosystem beneficiary; long SIVE as overlooked light-source supplier for POET's ELS.

@InvestWithFelix Yep $POET is a massive beneficary. It’s more well known with Celestial.

Even analysts miss though Poet’s light source for ELS comes from $SIVE.

But huge for their whole ecosystem that Nvidia is validating it

@aleabitoreddit I think you’re missing Poet here as they have a partnership with Celestial AI


Summary: Long SIVE frontrunning 2027 architectural supercycle now in H1; also bullish current optical transceiver cycle names AAOI, LITE, COHR, Innolight.

$SIVE / Win benefits from CW lasers from the next architectural supercycle in 2027. I'm just frontrunning that now H1 like $LITE last year.

You already kinda know they're in $MRVL Celestial, $JBL 1.6T LRO, and O-Net so thats huge ramp into 2029.

Stuff like $AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight are current optical transceiver cycles.


$AAOI, $LITE, $COHR, Innolight are current optical transceiver cycles


Same with Shunsin as Foxconn's photonics packaging/test arm

Summary: Long Win (3105) and Shunsin (6451) over 12 months; CPO-related names expected to heavily outperform and reach new ATHs despite macro/geopolitical volatility.

I think many newcomers will be surprised to learn:

Stocks don’t move in a straight line up as seen with Win (3105) and Shunsin (6451) today.

Win is very compelling over the next 12 months, despite short term volatility. Same with Shunsin as Foxconn’s photonics packaging/test arm.

Probably going to be War volatility, with Iran seizing two ships…

But I expect CPO related names to heavily outperform any macro climate and lead to more ATHs.


I expect CPO related names to heavily outperform any macro climate and lead to more ATHs

CPO photonics basket; removed delisted FNSR


Summary: Author suggests buying macro-crashed names MSFT, RDDT, HOOD and crypto ETH/IBIT, as rate-cut odds spike and Korean equities near ATHs.

Samsung, SK Hynix both back close to ATHs with $EWY following suit.

Buying back some names that crashed from macro like $MSFT (-21%), $RDDT(-36%), or $HOOD (-31%)…

Or others like $ETH or $IBIT here might not be the worst idea.

Especially as rate cut odds (2-3) spiked on derivative markets today.

Looks like markets and derivatives really believe in TACO Tuesday this time.

This has gotta be the biggest taco supreme I’ve ever seen?

Yesterday: “GG Iran as a civilization”

Today: “Hurray for World Peace, Iran can reconstruct, US is helping flow of passage through the strait. Big money to be made”

Too many shorts on $AAOI to $LITE and $SMH right now https://t.co/TXZymzkvUj


others like $ETH or $IBIT here might not be the worst idea


$ETH or $IBIT here might not be the worst idea


Samsung, SK Hynix both back close to ATHs with $EWY following suit


Summary: MRVL/GOOGL TPU talks seen as structural multi-year catalyst; POET and Sivers named as likely photonics beneficiaries past 2028.

$MRVL in talks to develop $GOOGL TPU for two different chip models.

High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well.

Especially as their custom ASIC likely pushes Celestial IP for scale up (Photonic Fabric) in the MPU's architecture. And this maps to both $POET and Sivers.

Custom ASICs take years, so there's probably no material revenue from Google until H2 2028.

Vendors are also probably multi-sourced, but having Google as a likely end user is a structural multi-year catalyst past 2028.

Markets are typically forward looking.


POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ


High possibility $SIVE likely became the light source for Google's supply chains if talks go well


$AAOIがInPレーザーのファブ（製造）から組み立てに至るまで、すべてをアメリカ国内で完結させているところが本当に気に入っています。そしてこれにより、彼らはマイクロンやSKハイニックスのようなプレミアム（プレミアム評価）を獲得できるだけでなく、マーチャント・モデル（外販）への移行や、まだ過小評価されているTAM（獲得可能な最大市場規模）の拡大という新たな機会へピボット（方向転換）するためのオプショナリティ（柔軟な選択肢）も得られるのです。

Summary: Bullish AAOI: full US vertical integration (InP laser fab to assembly) enables premium valuation, merchant-model pivot, and underappreciated TAM expansion.

実行リスクは常につきものです！しかし、$AAOI
がInPレーザーのファブ（製造）から組み立てに至るまで、すべてをアメリカ国内で完結させているところが本当に気に入っています。
そしてこれにより、彼らはマイクロンやSKハイニックスのようなプレミアム（プレミアム評価）を獲得できるだけでなく、マーチャント・モデル（外販）への移行や、まだ過小評価されているTAM（獲得可能な最大市場規模）の拡大という新たな機会へピボット（方向転換）するためのオプショナリティ（柔軟な選択肢）も得られるのです。

🌟ちょっとしたリマインダー
byセレ様

$AAOI は、米国内で 1.6T光トランシーバーの最大生産能力を持つ見込み。

また、光通信市場は強気シナリオでは 1,000億ドル規模まで拡大すると予想されている。

AOI（決算説明会の過去発言）：


Summary: Long SIVE as bleeding-edge CPO play targeting $10B+ by next year as CPO supercycle starts H2 2026; ecosystem names JBL, MRVL, POET, GFS, AMD, AEVA all mapped as beneficiaries.

Just a recap of recent information discovery + likely mapping with $SIVE:

-> $JBL 1.6T
-> Lightmatter
-> Ayar
-> $MRVL Celestial
-> Lightelligence
-> $POET
-> $GFS ecosystem
-> $AMD CPO
-> O-Net / Enablence
-> $AAPL Silicon Photonics
_
-> $YSS Golden Dome/DoD
-> $RTX / $ERIC (Space)
-> Bae Systems
-> $AEVA

With $JBL to Ayar feeding into hyperscalers like $MSFT, $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META.

With likely Lightelligence to O-Net feeding into Asian Hyperscalers like Tencent, Bytedance, and Baidu.

On top of that... the overarching TAM with CPO from the GS report goes from 0 ->  $91B.

And Sivers happens to be the bleeding edge for CPO (also starting from 0).

This is definitely high-beta and volatile.

But if Win volume ramps alongside $SIVE, I see them both becoming $10B+ companies next year.

This is just extremely early on (H1) before the CPO supercycle starts H2 2026.


They control 40% of the InP supply chain. Both in the raw materials and processing. Two separate different bottlenecks... the current valuation is derived from strategic control. Then the main value comes when AXT exerts its control with price hikes: Since the AI buildout with photonics has no other choice at scale.

Summary: Long AXTI: controls 40% of InP supply chain — a dual chokepoint on photonics; pricing power when AI buildout scales with no alternative at scale.

Introducing the Strait of $AXTI:

20% of the world's total global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

It is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy trade.

Now... Double That with $LITE and $GOOGL instead of South Korea/Japan as recipients?

Welcome to $AXTI.

They control 40% of the InP supply chain.

Both in the raw materials and processing. Two separate different bottlenecks (think of Iran producing oil, then shipping it through the Strait).

So, if you 2x the chokepoint with the Hormuz oil bottleneck (but on AI industry level for photonics, instead of Country economies):

You suddenly realize AXT's chokepoint (and China) on the photonics market.

The current valuation is derived from strategic control. Then the main value comes when AXT exerts its control with price hikes:

Since the AI buildout with photonics has no other choice at scale.


Summary: Long aluminum plays (CNEX, AA, CME ALI futures) on supply shock from Iran drone strike on UAE aluminum plant.

Iran has now just drone striked the major UAE Aluminum Plant.

If your first thought like everyone else was:

How do I profit off this?

Here's how:

$CNEX - Smelting process for aluminum production. They benefit when primary aluminum prices hike from global prices.

$AA - Bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting. They capture mine -> refinery -> smelter as a pure play way for Aluminum.

And of course: Long CME/COMEX Aluminum (ALI).

Most people are long oil, but Aluminum from Iran drone striking everything, is a large beneficary of the war.


$AEHR is cooking. Once you reach a certain point with MC it's mostly institutions driving price. If you find a name that a ton of hyperscalers use… it's feels bound to get repriced?

Summary: Bullish AEHR: hyperscaler adoption by multiple major customers will drive institutional repricing.

Told ya. $AEHR is cooking.

Once you reach a certain point with MC it’s mostly institutions driving price.

If you find a name that a ton of hyperscalers use… it’s feels bound to get repriced? https://t.co/AHqpgbqHJK

$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC.

Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI.

If we look at the timeline and speculated customers:

Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, https://t.co/QszZmBJUDo


short interest can only be so much of the float… So it's inherent buying pressure to cover over time, which does limit downside if fundamentals improves

Summary: Bullish HIMS: 36%+ short interest creates inherent buying pressure to cover, limiting downside as fundamentals improve.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

It’s still pretty incredible $HIMS is down 44% even after:

1. $NVO de-risking + partnership
2. Multiple global acquisitions expanding DTC distribution network
3. Peptide arc, with Huberman saying HIMS was set to soar under these conditions
4. Entering a friendlier macro climate.
5. Short interest reaching unsustainable 36%+

The good news is: short interest can only be so much of the float… So it’s inherent buying pressure to cover over time, which does limit downside if fundamentals improves.

Huberman did say $HIMS was set to soar… in this type of arc playing out today.

Interesting to see takes from Stanford professors on public equities. https://t.co/jqVtpEaoGB


Summary: Bullish RKLB on narrative/implication boost from $90M Space Force contract and US space buildup momentum ahead of SpaceX IPO.

$RKLB $90M US Space Force contract.

Not much revenue, but implication/narratives go brrr with the US space buildup.

Fun to see before the SpaceX IPO as well. https://t.co/jamx5EHans


Summary: Bullish SIVE to $10B+ by 2027 (8-10x); uses LITE's historical 60x run as comparable upside scenario.

I personally think $SIVE ends up a $10B+ company in 2027, so 8-10x.

$LITE did go from $2.8B to $80B in 2 years, so not really impossible do a 60x in the next few years if the stars align.

They're going down the right path.
> $LITE / UC Berkeley executives running company.
> Likely more US executive photonics related board members.
> NASDAQ listing
> Likely US institution private placement for funding
> use that for downstream IP acquisition.
> sell full pluggable transceiver/ELS for TAM expansion
> every hyperscaler kinda maps to Sivers right now, just no scale yet since CPO hasnt ramped up.

They just capture more revenue expansion along the way like $LITE did starting from the laser source.

@aleabitoreddit yes! 5x more from here i think in 3 years based on my modeling


Summary: Long NVTS (small position) as a SiC/GaN IC play on Nvidia's push to 800V DC infrastructure.

$NVDA actively pushing to 800V, and today was a pretty big signal.

"On April 22, 2026, NVIDIA has initiated discussions with major South Korean power equipment companies to explore designing DC infra based on an approximately 800V direct current (DC) system"

Previous named Nvidia partners include: Infineon, $TXN, $STM, $NVTS, Delta, Flex, $ETN, Schneider, and $VRT.

It's been known they're been pushing for this but... looks like Nvidia is really driving it.

Personally very small exposure to $NVTS since they're they have a high exposure for SiC/GaN ICs for 800V DCs.

I know others really liked $VICR for exposure.


$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR. feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.

Summary: Bullish AEHR at $1.1B MC; customer win timeline across AI ASICs, silicon photonics seen as a catalyst for mass orders within 1-2 quarters.

$AEHR looks extremely promising at ~$1.1B MC.

Aehr is starting to remind me of an early $TER, mixed with pre-earnings $AAOI.

If we look at the timeline and speculated customers:

Feb 11th: Sonoma production win for Hyperscaler's AI ASIC processors. (likely $GOOGL, $AMZN, $META).

- Probably Google? Aehr bought Incal, who was speculated to be used by Google for their TPUs.

Feb 26th: $14 million from AI lead customer (likely $AMD, $NVDA)

- Probably $AMD here for Instinct MI300/MI400.

March 3rd: Lead silicon photonics customer for one FOX-XP system (likely $INTC siph)

- Very likely $INTC has been their lead customer.

March 31st: Initial order from major new silicon photonics customer (likely $AVGO, $MRVL, $CSCO )

- New customer (rules out Intel), prob one of these transitioning to 800G/1.6T silicon photonics transceivers

(All speculative, very confidential BOM)

Regardless. This timeline is just bottling up for $AEHR.

Could be next earnings. Or two quarters from now.

But feels like a matter of time before we see mass orders.


$LITE sold out into 2029. Confirmation CPO mass production H2 2026.

Summary: Long LITE on sold-out capacity to 2029 and CPO mass production H2 2026; NVDA CPO/photonics upstream supply chain bullish.

@itsakek - $LITE sold out into 2029.
- Confirmation CPO mass production H2 2026.

$NVDA CPO/photonics upstream supply chain go brrr

@aleabitoreddit I’m surprised at optics and semicon strength. What do you think is the reason why it’s holding up so strong?


$NVDA CPO/photonics upstream supply chain go brrr


the most obvious ideas like long $LNG. Are probably the best ones instead of contrarian longs in Wartime?

Summary: Long LNG exporters (Cheniere + Chevron) as obvious plays on geopolitical escalation; still more upside if tensions rise.

Honestly... the most obvious ideas like long $LNG.

Or going long on $CVX.

Are probably the best ones instead of contrarian longs in Wartime?

Especially with low 18-30 IV, this would have easily been a few hundred percent gain by now.

There’s probably a lot more for oil and LNG exporters to run if tensions escalate.

@dfyz_ivan US/Australia and Indonesia/Malaysia can also up their exports to SK. I’m sure there’s alternatives like you mentioned.

But one of the biggest catalyst was for US exporters like $LNG. However point of the data was that lot of disruption/pricing fears are overblown to SK


Or going long on $CVX. Are probably the best ones instead of contrarian longs in Wartime?


Summary: Bullish Shunsin: low forward P/E, positioned in NVDA's CPO supply chain as Foxconn's optical packaging arm.

@KDREAM111111 Are you stupid. Shunsin is literally Foxconn's optical packaging arm with low forward P/E in $NVDA's CPO supply chains.

@aleabitoreddit Beware the pump. I am bag holding 6451


Summary: Long SIVE as a bleeding-edge photonics leader for AI/robotics/space with massive TAM; also names AAPL, LITE, COHR as sector leaders.

I mean $SIVE is a stock I don't plan on selling.

Photonics TAM is absolutely massive for AI, robotics, consumer hardware (eg. $AAPL), Space...

And Sivers happens to be in the bleeding edge for next-gen arhictectures and one of the few publicly traded leaders apart from $LITE and $COHR.

TAM expansion is also massive, especially with IP acquisition downstream.


one of the few publicly traded leaders apart from $LITE and $COHR


$MSFT to $META has largely crashed due to Macro, and we might see a recovery if this plays out. I wouldn't try and fade this rally.

Summary: Bullish broad large-cap equities (MSFT through META) on potential US-Iran war resolution; don't fade the geopolitical relief rally.

The War is finally over?

$MSFT to $META has largely crashed due to Macro, and we might see a recovery if this plays out.

Trump: "We'll be leaving very soon," he told reporters in the White House's Oval Office, adding that the exit could take place

"Within two weeks, maybe two weeks, maybe three."

This is following Iran's President to end the War, giving the US an Offramp:

"Expresses 'Necessary Will' to End War with US and Israel, Seeks Assurance Against Recurrence of Aggression"

It's likely a back channel deal if this date is said with this much confidence.

I wouldn't try and fade this rally.


Summary: Long Towa (6315.T) into H2 2026 on margin inflection, HBM compression demand ramp, sandbagged guidance, and dividend hikes; near-term algo selloff seen as noise.

For Towa (6315):

Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad.

But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1.

TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking)

Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY),
Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY).
Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY)

News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%"  or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff.

1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines.

-> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year.

-> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter.

So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off.

However:

Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal.

Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something?

Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment.

2. Order book "miss":

"Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands."

This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines.

But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2.

_

Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future.

IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat.

Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too

Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months.

But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company.

TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines.

Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.

@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit What do you think of TOWA earnings report? I'm thinking of adding a bit more today 🤔


Their profitability is absurd and they're still growing at insane rates. Valuations will catch up to fundamentals eventually.

Summary: Bullish RDDT: strong profitability + high growth rate means valuation will eventually reflect fundamentals.

@ConfusedNDazzed I would ignore the lines on the chart and just look at pure numbers for $RDDT. Their profitability is absurd and they’re still growing at insane rates.

Valuations will catch up to fundamentals eventually.

@aleabitoreddit Wish the market treated it as such.


Summary: Long Towa as a steady compounder on monopoly HBM capex inflows; long Enplas on AI segment sandbagging with 225%+ op profit growth and 1.6T optical lens ramp.

Wow, names like $TOWA (6315) are super boring to watch…

Especially since KR/TW markets are closed today.

Only up ~11% so far. But like Hammond or Tower Semi…

Towa seems like a pretty steady compounder up throughout the duration of new memory cycles.

Bc it receives unavoidable capex inflows from $MU, SK Hynix, and Samsung their monopoly status.

At least Enplas has some volatility… (, they grew their AI test segment 225%+ operating profit y/y)

Then "Mass production of lenses for 1.6T optical transceivers has launched."

Pretty sure they’re sandbagging + have legacy drag confusing algorithms regarding AI segment acceleration.

Good time to take a break from watching markets I guess.

So just putting it out there: Towa (6315), at $1.35B...

Is a rare, living definition of monopoly over HBM4 (compression molding).

It's been kinda flat YTD, but every memory company like $MU, Sk Hynix, Samsung are their customers. And each of the memory company earnings signaled https://t.co/EDFFGl6ytB


Pretty sure they're sandbagging + have legacy drag confusing algorithms regarding AI segment acceleration.