Summary: Holding NBIS long; views it as undervalued, won't sell even at $150, operates on 6-month to 1-year timeframes.

I mean right now $NBIS is undervalued I'm just holding it so I wouldn't sell even if it jumped to $150. But if it randomly jumps to $100B marketcap tomorrow or $300+ a share, I would probably sell look to rebuy lower.

It really depends.

5 years down the road nobody really knows. Hyperscaler chips come online, Neoclouds might pull an $SMCI at 5B+ quarterly revenue with margin compression and less revenue ramp.

Or they might become the new AWS. I can't make that prediction yet, which is why I do things in 6 months -1 year timframes.

@aleabitoreddit At what point do you think you’ll sell NBIS?

Do you think all of them will share marketshare 5 yrs down the line or do you think eventually a few will come out on top and the others go bust/sideways?


Summary: Speculative long AAPL: expects post-event dip to reverse as buybacks and narrative shift (iPhone Air) drive a rally days later.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Sometimes I like to gamble too.

$APPL somehow always falls every Apple event when people say it’s bad.

Then a few days later rallies when they do buybacks and change public narrative like with Apple Intelligence.

I quite like the iPhone Air. This play is extremely high risk. https://t.co/d8Y1B0aDFP


Summary: Long FLY as a 2026 medium-lift play; recommends tax-harvest then re-enter same position.

So $FLY is a interesting one here because it's in the tax harvesting lot since it's down 57% YTD.

I like it because it's a 2026 play for medium-lift, not exactly a short term hold.

But since you're using too much margin, then it might be a good idea to tax harvest now then re-rebuy 1 month later, so you can lower any taxable gains while having the same position 1 month later at possibly similar costs.

Yeah as you mentioned better to tax harvest on a better time rather than right after a 6.3% drop, feels bad but it's hard to go against the tax-harvesting flow EOY and I always underestimate it too personally when trading stuff like $SNAP or $ETOR.

@aleabitoreddit How are you feeling about $FLY now? I've been looking for positions to sell to lower my margin debt (which ballooned during the great crash of last week), and was thinking of loss harvesting $FLY and re-entering after the 1mo wash sale restriction, but idk feels iffy selling low


Summary: Long NBIS: undervalued at $21B with Level 4 robotaxi launching soon plus multiple other core businesses; calls it most misunderstood growth stock.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Yeah, zero clue why people aren’t talking more about $NBIS for robotaxis when they have fsd level 4 and are launching in a few days.

People buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for exposure, but $NBIS is just sitting there at a $21B marketcap with many other companies + core businesses to go alongside robotaxis.

Probably one of the most misunderstood and undervalued growth companies in the market.

Unfortunately finx is a tiny bubble so even if people start to understand it here, majority of people elsewhere wouldn’t even know Nebius owns a robotaxi company that’s been in development for the past 7 years

Agree, $NBIS rerate coming after they prove and scale this tech.  Supposed to launch in Dallas this year (Dec) with $UBER.


I'm seeing something different with SMM prices and increased future pricing power with $AXTI, but people are free to sell if they want to react to deferred revenue from contracts made in 2024

Summary: Bullish AXTI on rising SMM prices and increased future pricing power; dismisses selling pressure from 2024-contract deferred revenue.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

@itsdsha It’s been a solid 13 days since posting about the substrate bottleneck happening now.

I’m seeing something different with SMM prices and increased future pricing power with $AXTI, but people are free to sell if they want to react to deferred revenue from contracts made in 2024. https://t.co/Sxuw0B3rez


Summary: Bullish NBIS; views recent development as a positive catalyst and validation of competitive moat.

@foogleman1234 It's good to ignore the noise and do your own thinking.

For example, I liked $HIMS but I would call out that something is a headwind (eg. TrumpRX) if I thought it actually was a net negative.

Here I just see it as a positive for $NBIS and others and a validation of moat.

@aleabitoreddit Thought I was crazy for thinking this was good for NBIS, glad to see your post ❤


Summary: Prefers AMD over NVDA: OpenAI deal + larger re-rating potential from smaller market cap.

@arpit_sidana $AMD over $NVDA because of the OpenAI deal and market cap has higher re-rating potential just due to size.


I don't think $UNH or $DKNG cares at all, so took advantage of the dip

Summary: Bought UNH and DKNG on the dip; both insulated from US-China trade war, supported by rate cuts and seasonality tailwind.

@ThetaHarvest Even if US escalates a trade war with China, I don’t think $UNH or $DKNG cares at all, so took advantage of the dip.

Bottom wise, no clue.

I just think two more rate cuts and seasonality is an extremely strong tailwind and like the last tariff drop, it will sort itself out

@aleabitoreddit Waiting for the 9/21 cross on spy 🫠. What’s your thesis on this bottom ?


Summary: Would sell TSLA at current levels; better opportunities elsewhere.

@LiquidB_B There's cult stocks like $PLTR, $TSLA that you don't short. BC regular ppl will put their paychecks into them without looking at fundamentals.

I had TSLA at $150 but wouldn't ever touch at these levels and would sell it imo. Better opportunities elsewhere.

@aleabitoreddit If you're a $TSLA cultist ... (I'm half and half i suppose for the gains alone) ... sell CCs if you expect chop for a while... or buy calls on the 2x. Small price to pay for possible big upside.


Summary: Long CIFR with $16 target; long NBIS on dips, adding calls on conviction in fundamentals.

@taleino93 Don't know enough, I'd just concentrate in $CIFR likely to head back to $16 imo.

Ended up with $50k-ish in calls so far. Happy with $NBIS dip. I'll keep adding calls if they drop again since I'm convinced about fundamentals https://t.co/ahm6Bw4T1a

@aleabitoreddit thoughts on $BITF as a sympathy play to $CIFR?


Happy with $NBIS dip. I'll keep adding calls if they drop again since I'm convinced about fundamentals


Summary: Bullish NBIS and UBER on Avride robotaxi integration driving scale and cost savings as human drivers are phased out.

So this is amazing for $NBIS Avride how $UBER is doing it.

How it works from what I understand is when someone requests a ride with ubebx and the usual, they get matched a $NBIS Avride robotaxi pickup from $UBER and have the option.

(this is huge for scale since it's not going out of the way to select a separate robotaxi section for more cost like uberx black).

There's a human behind the wheel at the start, just to monitor if things go well. But they'll be phased out like Waymo.

IF this works out well, $UBER can ramp up their robotaxi network and save the costs of human drivers (and this benefits $NBIS too).

@aleabitoreddit Nice. Do you know if it’s going to be unsupervised or will it have a safety driver?


$UBER can ramp up their robotaxi network and save the costs of human drivers


algorithms are shorting the maximum amount of shares at these levels to the point they're about to run out for $VLN. They really messed up modeling

Summary: Bullish VLN: algorithmic short sellers have maxed out available shares and mispriced the model, implying a squeeze setup.

@sslickith I still can’t believe algorithms are shorting the maximum amount of shares at these levels to the point they’re about to run out for $VLN

They really messed up modeling https://t.co/BUFviLSUX6

@aleabitoreddit already up 10% thank you


Summary: Go long equities into Oct-Dec on macro tailwinds, rate cuts, and seasonality; specifically names NBIS, AMZN, LULU as beneficiaries.

Personal thoughts for trading this October (macro + tailwinds):

1. Government shutdown is 97% likely, already priced in Polymarket.

Again, this was already known way ahead of time. Which is why stuff like $VIRT or $VIX that I posted is a asymmetrical hedge during times of volatility.

Don't be a panickan, this is already priced in and known in advance, usually during the actual news, what WSJ reports, people might panic sell or buy Puts.

Use this opportunity to buy stocks on dips. Historically  initially, stocks drop on the news but ends up increasing new the tail end (eg. Oct 2021 (Debt Ceiling) 15 days, SPY +1.34%).

Right now, it's an especially great time to go LONG and if you don't have positions setup, use this time of uncertainty to stock up, not panic sell.

2. Polymarket is pricing in 56% of 75bps rate cuts this year. There's still a ton of macro tailwind for high growth stocks like $NBIS or RKLB or small caps on Russel.

This decreased ~8% last fed meeting off positive economic data, but it's still likely just for risk management, so adjust accordingly. (eg. growth stocks that rely on forward earnings, stuff like Zillow or others that benefit from increased housing sales from lower rates, or small cap stocks with floating interest debt cut).

But we'll likely get rate cut frontrunning in Oct after the short lived gov shutdown drop (if there is any)

3. SEASONALITY TAILWIND. October (front-running) -> November -> December. Huge opportunity for stocks.

E-Commerce like $AMZN, tech like $APPL retail like $LULU, etc. All benefit from seasonality such as Christmas shopping, Nov black friday deals.

Tech also performs great in December, so if you're position you can leverage longs aiming for March, on a government rate shutdown dip and just ride the wave until Jan.

I don't know how how it's going to play out exactly, but just going off assumption that stocks drop off confirmation fears, it's likely short term and a great time to build long positions, not sell, because of macro + seasonality tailwind + immateriality of government shutdowns historically.

Lot of inspirational trader mindsets going around X lately like:

"It will pay off. Be Patient". All BS.

Traders consider sector momentum, catalysts, valuation, pullbacks, macro, IV, option flows, etc.

Here's my mindset for short term trading for various stocks:

1. $NBIS -


macro tailwind for high growth stocks like $NBIS


Summary: Bullish NBIS: market is mispricing the parent of Uber's self-driving cars relative to UBER and TSLA.

WHAT IS THE MARKET SMOKING???

Wall Street sent $UBER, a $180B+ company, up 3.4%, $6B+ today off of its self-driving cars.

But $NBIS, the parent company of the self-driving cars Uber uses, got sent down -3% and is now worth less than $24B. https://t.co/ahpz7B0mwx

Make this make sense...

$TSLA: FSD level 2 robotaxis -> market adds ~$300B off a $1T+ valuation.

$NBIS: FSD level 4 robotaxis -> down 3.55% off a $23B marketcap. https://t.co/kMGzihza3V


Summary: Bullish SMCI: thesis points to recovery driven by forward revenue backlog by Q2 2026.

@LandoInvests Happy to debate $SMCI, I put my thesis here on why it's bound for a recovery due to forward revenue backlog in  Q2 2026.

https://t.co/FJj3yXlhGT

@aleabitoreddit I’d love to hear the thesis on $SMCI I’m a firm hater


Summary: Long NBIS as most undervalued growth co at $21B mktcap; 700%+ Y/Y core revenue, $7.6B portfolio, MSCI inclusion inflows imminent — last month under $90.

Nebius [ $NBIS ] is the most undervalued growth company right now.

And it has the potential to become the next $GOOGL at a $21B market cap. There's one simple reason:

It's portfolio companies are mindblowing.

The most incredible example on this concept is the company $FTX. Here's the story:

When we look at how $META grew into a $1T+ company, it wasn't just Facebook. It was their portfolio companies Instagram, Whatsapp, and others made Meta dominate the social media landscape.

$FTX was doing something similar, but in digital assets and frontier technologies.

Four years ago, in 2021, $FTX invested $5.8B into a large basket of assets. And put a large chunk into these three core companies:

1. Anthropic, 13.56% at a $2.5 Billion valuation.
2. Robinhood [ $HOOD ] 7.6% at a $8.54B valuation
3. Solana [ $SOL ], 41M+ tokens.

Fast forward to today, that would have been:

· Anthropic in it's latest round is worth $350B. That stake would have been worth ~$47.4B.

· Robinhood is now worth over $100B. That stake would be worth ~$7.6B.

· Solana is now worth  $131.5 per token, making the stake well over $5.7B.

Those three companies alone generated well over $55B+ in value in 4 years time, and this is not even including FTX's tens of billions of dollars + hundreds of other investments + holdings in Chime, Layerzero, Aptos, Hidden Road (bought by $COIN), and crypto.

Their portfolio companies outlasted their core business (and imagine, how much it would have been worth if the core business kept scaling like $GOOGL search did alongside Youtube).

$NBIS now has the same setup as $FTX did in crypto, $META in social media, but in artificial intelligence with a legitimate and incredibly rapidly growing core business.

Nebius owns:

1. Clickhouse, 28% at a ~$7B valuation ($6.3 H1 2025)
2. Avride, 83% at a ~$6B valuation. (post Uber raise)
3. Toloka AI, ~65% at a ~$640 million valuation
4. TripleTen, 100% at a ~$300m valuation.

· Clickhouse powers Anthropic, $META, $TSLA, $NET, and many fortune 500 companies.

· Avride is a self-driving car robotaxi company, spun out of Yandex that $UBER invested in a $375M round in to compete with Waymo.

· Toloka is a AI labeling platform that Amazon, Microsoft, Anthropic, and Shopify uses.

$1.96B + $4.96B + $416M + $300m = $7.6B valuation in portfolio companies that are growing faster than most public growth companies.

But if we look at their core business that is scaling to 700%+ Y/Y to $7-9B ARR, with $4.8B in cash, powering $META, $MSFT, Cursor, governments, and many more...

This might be the last month it's under $90 before it receives hundreds of millions to low billions of extra inflows from MSCI inclusion today. There's no other datacenter growth company that has this type of portfolio if we look at crowd favorites like $IREN or $CIFR.

$NBIS is only valued at $21B and the market is sleeping on this opportunity.

The Neocloud Sector Tierlist.

Post Q3 earnings + Market Sector Drop:

[S] Tier: $NBIS
[A] Tier:  $CIFR, $WULF, $IREN
[B] Tier: $GLXY, $CORZ
[C] Tier:  $APLD, $CLSK
[D] Tier: $WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI
[F] Tier, $CRWV*, $SLNH
[U] Tier: $GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF,  $HIVE, $RIOT ** https://t.co/FT5PDtyULL


Nebius's structural model (full-stack + orchestration + amortization) still points to sustainably higher margins than miners like IREN using middleware

Summary: Bullish NBIS on structurally superior margins via full-stack + orchestration; bearish IREN as middleware-dependent miner with inferior margin profile.

That’s not true, $NBIS margins include colo fees and the costs are reflected in the 29% cost of revenue.

$IREN owns the sites too, but it doesn’t give much of a margin advantage over $NBIS. Thing you didn’t read was software (orchestration, utilization) and no revenue margin cut (fluidstack, poolside), drives higher margins.

Saying intelligent people stopped comparing tradeoffs between capacity and margins is the dumbest take I’ve seen so far, congrats.

---

@FransBakker9812 Also I’ve been more conservative with margin estimates in case it’s a one-off quarter.

Even adjusting for normalization, Nebius’s structural model (full-stack + orchestration + amortization) still points to sustainably higher margins than miners like IREN using middleware


$IREN owns the sites too, but it doesn't give much of a margin advantage over $NBIS


Summary: Expects META to dip/flush back to ~$650 short-term but advocates cost averaging into it, implying buy on weakness.

@rioferdy838 $META might 2 day flush so -15% intraday low or back to $650 later. Which is why I said cost averaging is important.

Usually you don’t buy right after earnings but Mag7 is an exception due to high liquidity.

Also correction to post, 2-6 day recovery, not full recovery

@aleabitoreddit I didn’t go leaps but wish I had got some more shares around 650ish. Argh. Too late.


$LTC has a ton of room to run with etf approval and Litecoin treasuries. Given the MC is so small, we'll likely see some massive spike when enough gets accumulated. $200+

Summary: Bullish LTC to $200+ on ETF approval and treasury accumulation; bearish SOL (frontrun) and XRP (absurd fundamentals).

@mamadamacdonald $SOL already got frontran and $XRP fundamentals are just as absurd as $PLTR.

$LTC has a ton of room to run with etf approval and Litecoin treasuries. Given the MC is so small, we’ll likely see some massive spike when enough gets accumulated. $200+

@aleabitoreddit what do you think about LTC? Thank you


$XRP fundamentals are just as absurd as $PLTR


Summary: TSSI likely a buy on DELL/SMCI forward revenue after -42% drop; CRWV selloff seen as overreaction to short-term delay.

Wow, disgusting -42.69% drop on $TSSI, sorry if you have that. It's likely part of the datacenter selloff and looks like they missed on earnings due to operational blunders.

I haven't looked at it for a awhile, but if they're still  piggybacking on $DELL, then it's likely a good buy. Lot of forward revenue, including with $SMCI coming in 2026 Q1-Q2. SMCI quoted backlog delays too. And lot of $DELL backlog with the DC buildout.

Markets tanked $CRWV too for short term delay on buildout.

@aleabitoreddit @accounting_ds Pls checkout $TSS, looks like crazy overreaction based on YoY comparison. Would appreciate your thoughts since you had looked into this player before. High concentration risk but looks like a crazy value now.


Markets tanked $CRWV too for short term delay on buildout


Summary: CRWV sell-off on datacenter delay is a one-off; expects dip to be bought back next quarter.

Neocloud Earnings Today + Why Michael Burry is Wrong:

$WULF - ER was positive, $17B TCV from 520 MW HPC capacity.

240 MW JV in Texas for DC expansion + $5B financing.

Nothing special like $CIFR ER with AWS, just conf (eg. deal finances) and site dev.

$CRWV - ER was bearish near term due to lower forward revenue Q4.

$55.6B backlog ($22.4B from OpenAI). Slight earnings beat 1.36B vs. 1.29B (129% Y/Y), EBITDA margins (61%).

Stock dropped on datacenter delay, this hurts FY 2025 (505-5.15B vs. 5.29B consensus). Operating margins was lowered, which I predicted due to debt financing with interest (~1B+ interest/year) that cuts into margins, while other Neoclouds don't have that same issue.

That being said this was a one-off issue, and we'll likely see any sell-off bought back after next quarter since markets are forward looking.

_

As for Michael Burry arguing on GPU deprecation: he's completely wrong, but partially right about understating it.

His general claim: capex of chips on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives

-> in Google's case, their TPUs from 7 years ago are being run at 100% utilization lol. Repeat 7 years ago.

Amin Vahdat, said that Google currently has seven generations of its TPU hardware in production, and that the “seven- and eight-year-old TPUs have 100 % utilization.”

"Google says TPU demand is outstripping supply, claims 8yr old hardware iterations have “100% utilization” -Data Center Dynamics

-> in Nvidia's case A100 (PCIe and SXM4 variants), are still in operation. They were launched in 2020. It's 2025 now. Older models keep their value and still deliver equity. They don't just get nuked since it's an add-on to compliment newer models.

Nvidia’s A100 can be partitioned into isolated instances to maximize utilization, and older-gen accelerators are still monetized for inference or lower-prio tasks rather than getting nuked as what he claims. They actually have residual value and still re-sale for a lot 5 years later.

He's completely wrong here on shelf-life, but might be correct in how some hyperscalers stretch the idea of utilization to justify aggressive capex.

It's a nuanced argument but Neocloud thesis remains in tact and stronger than ever.

The Neocloud List got updated:

$IREN - IREN secured a $9.7B GPU cloud contract with Microsoft, including 20% upfront prepayment, to deploy NVIDIA GB300s over five years.

$CIFR - CIFR secured a $5.5 billion, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AWS).

The Neocloud https://t.co/vPeLY3cRgY


These $META calls are probably going to print! I'm kinda expecting it to drop again tomorrow to shake people out so I was going to buy a second set of calls on Friday.

Summary: Buying META calls; expects short-term dip then recovery, planning to add more calls on Friday.

@soulbiri1 These $META calls are probably going to print!

I’m kinda expecting it to drop again tomorrow to shake people out so I was going to buy a second set of calls on Friday.

@aleabitoreddit Burning money in AI capex is a testament to strength not weakness, means this company prints cash https://t.co/sFnbmQNNZz


Summary: Sees Meta as a good dip buy despite disagreement with capex scaling.

@rioferdy838 @DivesTech @Benzinga My personal take is that it’s a good dip buy but at the same time I disagree with scaling capex spend when it’s not required.

@aleabitoreddit @DivesTech @Benzinga What’s your take on buying the Meta dip?


I wouldn't sell it if I had it now at $75

Summary: Wouldn't sell CRWV at $75 despite high debt/FCF drag; would rotate proceeds into NBIS as preferred holding.

Accident! I didn’t feel like editing my post when I read it over again. So $CRWV is weird since it’s oversold, $55B backlog (think $22B of which is OpenAI), Neocloud sector leader, spare capacity backstopped by $NVDA.

Miss on recent earnings due to revenue lag from delays but this shouldn’t matter too much if you wait a bit. But core reason was extremely high debt interest compared to others cutting into fcf and low balance cash sheet ~$1.8B cash if I remember correctly.

I wouldn’t sell it if I had it now at $75, but I wouldn’t long term hold it either and would rotate it into $NBIS, so I was probably wondering what category that fits in lol

@aleabitoreddit Excuse me？Why you put crwv both hold and avoid？


Summary: NODE is a good way to get exposure, avoiding rebalancing/stock-picking hassle; implied buy.

@matthew_sigel ^. Also $NODE is a great way to get exposure without worrying about portfolio rebalancing and stock picking. https://t.co/hNThPPqP5u


Summary: Both HIMS (short squeeze potential +150%) and NBIS (fundamental growth +100%) are bullish within 3-6 months.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

@GrassKaniKani $HIMS has 42% short interest and can short squeeze 150% any moment.

$NBIS is likely to rise another 100% just based on fundamentals.

HIMS has highest upside potential under a short squeeze scenario, NBIS likely rallies just based on staggering growth.

Pick your poison.

@aleabitoreddit Is this better than $HIMS special? I'm thinking about exiting my HIMS position and moving into $NBIS but i'm unsure which one has the higher upside potential within the next 3-6 months?


$NBIS is likely to rise another 100% just based on fundamentals


Summary: Holds six-figure position in NBIS post-Microsoft deal; bullish on 300%+ Y/Y revenue for 7 years not yet priced in.

@daniel_koss Yep, $NBIS 26% up on the month (46% on the day) on 300%+ Y/Y revenue for 7 years is not priced in at all.

Again there are execution risks like high debt, or termination clauses. Aside from that I do own 6 fig worth after the contract because uncertainty eased for me.

$NBIS is ridiculously underpriced after a mere 50% jump on the Microsoft deal.

It's honestly comical. Just look at the numbers.

They got a $17.4-19.4B revenue deal from $MSFT.
Market cap only increased by $7.55B.

Cloud businesses have INSANE NDR (Net Dollar Retention) of


AXT goes up 100% once markets find out it's the single point of failure for the AI supply chain

Summary: Bullish AXTI: claims it is the single point of failure for the AI supply chain and could rise 100% once markets discover this.

I mean most of my posts from $AXTI and $AIRO are novel information synthesis based on public info.

So makes sense if stuff like AXT goes up 100% once markets find out it’s the single point of failure for the AI supply chain.

Or in this case markets didn’t know about $OSS involvement in Venezuela.

That aside I’m just posting my own thought process or just novel analysis to test my thesis against the markets. Not advice or recommending others to follow along.

@aleabitoreddit Am i the only one thinking your posts bumps the stock immediately within hour lol


Summary: Pair trade: short CRCL / long COIN if CRCL revisits $200, with $10B+ unlock selling pressure by Dec 2 and CRCL overvalued vs COIN given revenue-sharing dynamics.

Rant: this $CRCL chart is a great lesson on why TA means very little - fundamentals matter more.

When people were posting $BULL TA's at IPO, I was doing arbitrage between warrants and rolling my eyes.

BULL went from $10 to $70+ but people were trading on 1% of float. When shares were unlocked, BULL went back to $10 IPO price.

For CRCL, we saw the rally from $31 IPO price to $200+ because people are trading on a limited float and MC was almost the same as $COIN. (which has 50% interest revenue sharing with Circle on top of their crypto exchange)

When 1.4m+ Circle shares had early unlock, the price crashed back down to $130.  If you ever see $CRCL at $200, it's an easy short Circle long Coinbaes play.

The full 180 day lock up is December 2nd and you have another $10B+ USD of potential selling pressure in two months.

I am bullish on USDC and Circle/Coin but with the existing business model it doesn't make sense that $CRCL should ever be worth more than 1/2 of $COIN today at $200 given how Stablecoin businesses like Tether make money off interest income.

TA doesn't mean anything with upcoming share lockups.

Lesson: Float & fundamentals > lines on a chart.

$CRCL is a $200 stock trading at $130.

Has a similar business model to Tether, which is stupidly profitable & does $90M per employee(!!!).

Circle's revenue growth is remarkable. https://t.co/YtkNUWEQcv


industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'


Summary: Bullish NVDA on backlog, SMCI on revenue growth/guidance raise, SNAP as undervalued with FCF catalysts, HIMS on growth+buybacks, and long-term on SK Hynix/TSMC as top-tier compounders.

So I can argue the bear case for $NVDA too, that hyperscalers are building their own ASICs. But in cases like these, you look at numbers rather than narrative like, the backlog for Nvidia, it's wild.

$SMCI is nowhere close, which is why it's down 40% in 3 months but it's still growing revenue 50%+ Y/Y and even raised FY guidance from $33B to FY $36B.

As for $SNAP, it's materially undervalued if you're value investing. Perplexity deal adding $400m in value, then net FCF from memory monetization is +$630M. Yet it's trading 25% down from the start of the year.

$HIMS has Zava acqusition and is expanding to Europe. Amazon and others already launched competitors but Hims I think is still growing 20%+ Y/Y into next year and has buybacks.

They're obviously not god-tier stocks like Sk Hynix, TSM, Lite, and others just growing at insane rates but this is the point of being over-sold + revert to mean a lot faster. And upside could be higher.


it's still growing revenue 50%+ Y/Y and even raised FY guidance from $33B to FY $36B


it's materially undervalued if you're value investing. Perplexity deal adding $400m in value, then net FCF from memory monetization is +$630M


Hims I think is still growing 20%+ Y/Y into next year and has buybacks


god-tier stocks like Sk Hynix, TSM, Lite, and others just growing at insane rates


stock price should be a good swing trade especially as it trades near 1Y low. Markets are pricing in doom and gloom + accounting issues. I believe $SMCI is past that accounting issues, and 1 quarter delay is not too material + margins should recover.

Summary: Long SMCI: PEG <0.5, 50% Y/Y revenue growth, accounting issues behind it, margin recovery expected, sovereign AI upside; trades near 1Y low.

Sure, $SMCI trades at PEG <.5, compared to $DELL ~1.2 PEG, despite growing 4x faster.

Revenue is increasing 50% Y/Y, and the main drop recently was due to backlog delays from Q1 to Q2, not loss. They even increased revenue projections from $33B -> $36B.

The main issue was gross margin compression, which I believe is transitory, just given new DLC segments and acquiring new customers (where it will increase at scale).

I think markets are missing sovereign AI, where other countries rely on OEMs like $SMCI for DC deployments. And other countries. eg. Malaysia, would likely command higher margins too.

Regardless $17B valuation for less than .5 P/S, seems pretty attractive. But a lot of the revenue increase is pass through from more expensive components, so gross margins are the things to watch.

TLDR: Markets are pricing in doom and gloom + accounting issues. I believe $SMCI is past that accounting issues, and 1 quarter delay is not too material + margins should recover. So stock price should be a good swing trade especially as it trades near 1Y low.

@aleabitoreddit Do you have an in-depth thesis on $SMCI?


Summary: Long LITE on TPU/GPU BOM dominance, long AAOI as MSFT Maia + AMZN Trainium ASIC play with revaluation catalyst, long AXTI as photonics materials supplier.

"Late".

$LITE is a $26B MC in the center of every future $GOOGL TPU deployment, $NVDA/ $AMZN / other GPU/ASICs.

8-12% BOM share of every Google TPU v7. This is like saying $NVDA was "late" when price it was a $1T MC.

But if you want want another player, $AAOI.

$MSFT is using them for Maia ASICs and are likely creating a new architecture with $AAOI.

They also have a $4B warrant + purchase agreement with $AMZN.

So it's more of a long $MSFT Maia + $AMZN Trainium ASIC play but markets haven't really cared about those two hyperscaler ASICs yet.

If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast.

Everyone jumped on the $GOOGL TPU bandwagon after $META reportedly was going to buy a bunch though.

---

@manukafirth Another good one is $AXTI which is the materials supplier for $LITE / photonics. $500m mc


If there's any positive news about those two $AAOI will revalue extremely fast


$AXTI which is the materials supplier for $LITE / photonics. $500m mc


Summary: Long UPWK: ~2B mktcap, 77.8% gross margins, ~9x P/E, $100M buyback, expanding margins — most undervalued profitable stock to hold.

$UPWK just announced it's buying ~5% of it's float back with a $100M repurchase program.

Let's reiterate this one more time:

1. ~2B market cap, with 773M yearly revenue and 77.8% gross margins.

 2. Big Cash Pile, profitable, ~9 p/e. Expanding margins + new business acquisitions not priced into forward revenue.

If you're worried about $RKLB, $CRWV, $IREN, $HIMS, $WULF and other high beta stocks from September, seasonality doesn't matter if your market cap is this low and you're printing money.

Upwork is probably the most undervalued and immensely profitable stocks to hold in this market.

$UPWK is the safest value play, even over $UNH, $NVO, $GOOGL, and others.

Market makers flushed Upwork call open interest for August 15th, and now it's rallying where it should be above $17.5+.

A 1.8B software company with ~80% gross margins doing 770m in annual revenue is https://t.co/uADbSl08F8


Summary: Sector selloff is buying opportunity for de-risked neoclouds NBIS/IREN (Mag7 take-or-pay contracts); ORCL/CRWV face real counterparty risk from OpenAI exposure.

The alpha is knowing what types of contracts lead to isolation from current fears and where there's mispricing on individual components in the sector.  Compute capacity contracts are take or pay for $MSFT, $META, and others.

Companies like $NBIS, $IREN and others are effectively de-risked due to **no counterparty risk** from Mag7 (infinite balance sheets) and 5 Year contracts.

However, their drops were different reasons ( $NBIS, 25M share ATM), $IREN fears over dilution for monetizing their rest of the 3 GW capacity pipeline for AI Cloud  instead of colo.

However, the main overarching fear was that $ORCL, $CRWV faces severe counterparty risk from OpenAI insolvency + inability to pay, but this causes a sector algorithmic selloff because they're the two largest players.

But this sector sell-off is a good buying opportunity for some of the unaffected (minus credit tightening) / misunderstood companies.

Also AI is a growing market, and there's likely compute strain for the time being (eg. anthropic, gemini, and other models) but it's basically 100% utilization for hyperscaler contracts on $NBIS, $IREN.

Obviously if there's overbuild, there's probably margin compression but we're not seeing that right now.   What happens after 5 years I don't know.

@aleabitoreddit Question: if OPENAI cannot absorb the increasing buildout of data center and compute, which means that AI arm race cools off, wouldn’t that cause margins compression for Neocloud sector as a whole?


$ORCL, $CRWV faces severe counterparty risk from OpenAI insolvency + inability to pay


Summary: Bearish UAVS: convertible structure gives arbitrage investors rights to mint shares 50% below market, diluting retail; company has history of fake press releases.

$ONDS convertible note at a higher strike is wildly different and this is a delusional take.

$UAVS gave control to arbitrage investors of over 100% the marketcap where they can mint $100 million worth of shares at $1.23 (-50% under current prices) and just pocket the difference.

This only works if retail buys into this arbitrage. And as we’ve seen the same company would do anything from putting out fake press releases like $AMZN partnerships to get retail to buy.

I'm long. If the company is this tightly controlled, they would be foolish to not allow it to squeeze much harder. Company has recent military orders from all over. I think it's reasonable for them to get a contract soon.

You could make similar comments about risk with $ONDS and


Summary: ORCL undervalued on forward revenue if OpenAI pays up; great buy contingent on OpenAI IPO and continued backing.

@ccjdjff It's undervalued based on forward revenue under the condition OpenAI will pay up on its contract.

Assuming it goes public and government/MSFT/NVDA/etc. keeps backstopping it, $ORCL great buy.

Also they managed to buy a large part of TikTok at a crazy low valuation.


Summary: Bought $500K of NBIS; highest-conviction 1-year pick with $225 price target.

Bought $500K worth of $NBIS.

My highest conviction stock out of anything for a 1 year time period.

$225 PT https://t.co/buW9CV4WWH


Summary: Highest conviction long RKLB over 5 years; also long HOOD and TSM within a decade timeframe.

@paramdan42454 It's what I have the most conviction in the next 5 years, or a 2 year time-frame.

For stocks like $RKLB ($16 - When I first bought, $28 - When I developed conviction).

Things from $HOOD, $TSM, are in random order, it's  just what I believe in the most within the next decade.

@aleabitoreddit Didn’t get the 5-2 year ones,
Does Rklb being on 5 years mean you bought 5 years ago, or you are convicted for the next 5 years?


what I believe in the most within the next decade


Summary: Long AXTI as the dominant InP substrate supplier capturing margin arbitrage + price surge; COHR and LITE also named as constrained IDMs benefiting from capacity monopolization by NVDA.

The InP substrate shortage and "Spread" Arbitrage - $AXTI

Market research is showing InP and optical components to become analogous to the HBM shortage and price craze.

The initial bottleneck was caused by $NVDA monopolizing of the production capacity of EML from $COHR to $LITE (TrendForce).

Here's the breakdown:

$NVDA has reportedly engaged in strategic capacity reservations for EML laser chips, pushing lead times for these specific components beyond 2027.

By booking out the finished goods capacity of IDMs like $LITE and $COHR (who are constrained by InP), Nvidia has effectively removed the capacity for optical engines.

The "Second Order effect": As a result, many hyperscalers have likely delayed their roadmaps/ramp from $MSFT to $AMZN and are looking for capacity.

Optical makers have also scrambled for alternative sources.

Since the primary IDMs are booked, hyperscalers are moving upstream to secure wafers, substrate, and feedstock capacity directly, creating a effect that is amplifying demand at the materials level.

Both 6N and 7N Indium are at all time highs on the Shanghai Metal Markets; prices sit higher on Western markets, representing a price bifurcation between China and Western markets.

6N for example sits ~$412.83-$425.46 per kg.

6N Western prices are ~$668.00 (Jan 1st, source: Indium Corporation at 5-9 kg quantities), over 50%+ premium. (Spot direct negotiations to hyperscalers would likely have different prices).

Premiums for 7N would likely higher margin, with  substrates commanding the most premium (not public data, but some estimates go into triple digit premiums)

However, the bottleneck has now migrated upstream to substrate itself (and third order effect, feedstock) to secure capacity.

$AXTI perhaps plays one of the most critical roles and unique roles as "40% of the InP supply chain" ( $AXTI CEO ER quote) in the InP bottleneck:

Low costs: AXTI's factory is in Beijing. They source materials (own 10+ materials suppliers) and refine them themselves into finish substrates.

Sell High: They sell finished InP substrates to the global market, where prices are inflated by the shortage and the Western Indium price.

Arbitrage: As long as AXTI continues their export permits, they capture the massive spread between low Chinese manufacturing costs and high global selling prices.

This is compared to Western companies that are largely affected by upstream material costs and Western premiums. As a result $AXTI, margins next quarter should expand rapidly on top of their production capacity funded by the $100m share sale injection by Northland.

This is implicated from reports from late December reports from Asian Metal, indicating that Chinese suppliers explicitly "raised offering prices" for exports to the US:

December 19, 2025: Asian Metal reported that "Indium ingot suppliers raise offering prices in United States," marking the beginning of the specific divergence in Western pricing.

December 24, 2025: They subsequently reported that "Suppliers of indium ingot raise quotes in China," confirming that the pricing pressure had solidified across both domestic and export channels by the end of the week.

This stems from capacity monopolization by hyperscalers, extended lead times, and a decoupling of "AI" material pricing from commodity baselines.

The conditions for a "Massive Price Increase" for InP substrates are not just present, they are active.

Throughout 2026, both the price of InP substrates, and by one-hop, the commodity price of Indium would likely see a rapid surge as hyperscalers go upstream to secure demand.

The company that benefits both ways from the a possible parabolic rally in InP substrate + InP feedstock prices would be $AXTI, presenting an asymmetrical upside at $16, ~$850M MC. However, the risks are present as they're heavily reliant on export permits and US-China trade relations.

TLDR, AXT:

1. Sits in the center of both InP substrate and InP feedstock bottlenecks

2. Benefits from margin arbitrage and substrate price surges between China production and US hyperscaler premiums during allocation battles.

3. Controls a major a major percentage of the world's merchant output for substrates required for the Western hyperscaler AI buildout.

Hyperscalers saw Nvidia monopolized EML capacity and are likely looking at companies like $AXTI, Sumitomo or feedstock (Vital, $AXTI, $DOWA) to secure their roadmaps now.

AXT is one of the most interesting companies at $850m given it controls the critical bottleneck to the hyperscaler AI buildout and captures both the InP substrate price surge + margin arbitrage opportunities.

$AXTI CEO - “We are 40% of the Indium Phosphide supply chain”

Has there ever been a company this small ($700M) that controlled a critical bottleneck for a multi-trillion dollar industry? https://t.co/tn7EOMPgas


$NVDA has reportedly engaged in strategic capacity reservations for EML laser chips, pushing lead times for these specific components beyond 2027. By booking out the finished goods capacity of IDMs like $LITE and $COHR (who are constrained by InP), Nvidia has effectively removed the capacity for optical engines


By booking out the finished goods capacity of IDMs like $LITE and $COHR (who are constrained by InP), Nvidia has effectively removed the capacity for optical engines


Summary: Dismisses Citi's $30 HIMS sell rating as conflicted/fabricated, implying the target is invalid and the stock should be higher.

True story: I had lunch with a former Citi sellside analyst the other day.

He told me they pull numbers out of thin air so they can get along better at the corporate events and investors dinners.

Unfortunately their partners are short $4.5B+ on $HIMS and ppl know the PT is bs

🚨 BREAKING: CITI REITERATES $HIMS SELL RATING, $30 PRICE TARGET

CITI SAYS IT IS WORRIED INCREASED FDA SCRUTINY WILL INCREASE CUSTOMER ACQUISITION COSTS (CAC)


I've been putting $ORCL on avoid and this earnings was the reason why on the 11% drop

Summary: Avoid ORCL on OpenAI-dependent backlog risk; long NBIS and other neoclouds sold off with it as hyperscaler-backed thesis intact.

I’ve been putting $ORCL on avoid and this earnings was the reason why on the 11% drop.

I need more time to look into it but it’s not just capex spend that’s worrying, a large part of it is because of OpenAi (which doesn’t have the funding for the backlog) that a lot of the spend is for.

Other neoclouds like $NBIS don’t have this problem because their backlog is from $MSFT that actually have the money. And hyperscaler capex funnel was the core Neocloud thesis, not levered/contingency on OpenAi which oracle faces.

So selloff on other Neoclouds that got brought down with it presents a good opportunity

@aleabitoreddit Take on $ORCL earnings and how itll affect the sector? I feel like coreweave and oracle really cooked the market


Other neoclouds like $NBIS don't have this problem because their backlog is from $MSFT that actually have the money


selloff on other Neoclouds that got brought down with it presents a good opportunity

Neocloud basket of HPC/AI cloud infrastructure names


Summary: Strong long NBIS as a full-port pick; implicitly bearish on IREN (more speculative), CRWV (worse valuation), ALAB (lower growth).

@soulbiri1 Honestly $NBIS this is one of the only stocks I'd be fine telling a friend to full port.

Less speculative than $IREN, better valuation than $CRWV, future growth higher than $ALAB.

@aleabitoreddit Just convinced my wife to dump her entire IRA into Nebius.


I'll DCA another 6 figures into $META at $610

Summary: Will DCA 6 figures into META at $610 and cost-average up on NBIS; calls both amazing buying opportunities now.

@rioferdy838 @Nykonikus @John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger I’ll DCA another 6 figures into $META at $610. For $NBIS I’ll always cost average up for longs if I trim other positions

But if others don’t have positions they want in those right now it’s an amazing buying opportunity

@aleabitoreddit @Nykonikus @John12321043976 @DeepValueBagger Are you buying any dips? Meta? NBIS? Or just sitting tight.


For $NBIS I'll always cost average up for longs


Summary: Long NBIS and CRWV as full-stack Neocloud winners with moats/margins; sold off HPC miner pivots CIFR, IREN, WYFI, WULF due to lack of asymmetric upside and execution risk.

The harsh reality is:

Many of these HPC miner pivots will fail.

The lack of asymmetrical upside is why I sold off miners like $CIFR, $IREN, $WYFI, and $WULF and into full-stack AWS Neoclouds like $NBIS

However, miners that pivot well like $CRWV have very high upside 📈

Why?

As a trader, I rode almost every single Neocloud from  $BITF to $IREN as a narrative momentum trade. And most are up 50%-250%+.

But none of them aside from $CRWV have contracted AI workloads or cash-flow visibility at scale. Currently, many just look at Coreweave when it comes time to execution.

When the new report that $ORCL, a $800B hyperscaler, lost $100M on their buildout and only had 14% gross margins, this should have sent alarm bells regarding moats, buildout risks, and margins.

I took this as a lesson that HPC is actually a huge moat and gross margins matter a ton more than capacity buildout. These tradeoffs are what people should think of when weighing the execution risk when putting money into $200M market caps like $SLNH.

This is not a bear post, I am still bullish on the Neocloud buildout as a whole, this about execution risks and the reality of the situation.

However, my guess is: The market will price this in before earning reports come out and margins are scrutinized.

We will likely see several popular names sell-off and consolidate into the Neocloud winners whether that's $NBIS or $IREN, and people are free to speculate which one will succeed.

The reality is when there's a new emerging market, not every company succeeds. But if you choose the right winner like $NVDA, there's generational returns.

I just started early, selling off many miners like $CIFR to $SLNH to $IREN to $BITF and consolidating into likely winners like $NBIS.

When Nebius already has hyperscaler contracts + large moats in full stack + high gross margins + high cash balances + subsidiaries, the downside risk is a lot less, and the asymmetrical upside is a lot higher.


miners that pivot well like $CRWV have very high upside


I sold off miners like $CIFR, $IREN, $WYFI, and $WULF


このセクターにとって最大級の追い風であることに変わりはありません。これにより、収益化（マネタイズ）までの期間に伴うリスクが大幅に低減され $CRWV などがガイダンス下方修正の要因として挙げていた「繰延収益」の計上も加速することになります。個人的には、この法案は3回分の利下げよりもポジティブだと考えています

Summary: Bullish CRWV: SPEED Act removes permitting bottlenecks, accelerates deferred revenue recognition and CapEx-to-FCF conversion faster than 3 rate cuts.

おっしゃる通り、AIデータセンター業界には信用の引き締め（クレジットタイトニング）や物理的な制約といった懸念材料が依然として存在します。この法案ですべての問題が解決するわけではありません。

しかし、エネルギー供給と許認可プロセスのボトルネックを解消するという点で、このセクターにとって最大級の追い風であることに変わりはありません。これにより、収益化（マネタイズ）までの期間に伴うリスクが大幅に低減され $CRWV などがガイダンス下方修正の要因として挙げていた「繰延収益」の計上も加速することになります。
個人的には、この法案は3回分の利下げよりもポジティブだと考えています。なぜなら、金利低下以上に、膨大な設備投資（CapEx）をより迅速にフリーキャッシュフロー（FCF）へと転換できることの方が重要だからです。

@aleabitoreddit I see the logic, but I think the SPEED Act’s impact is being slightly overstated.
It mainly streamlines NEPA reviews and litigation, not the core physical bottlenecks—interconnection queues, transformer lead times, transmission/substation capacity, and equipment/labor


Summary: Bearish LUNR long-term vs ASTS/RKLB; bearish SNAP on wrong strategic direction (AR instead of competing with TikTok).

$LUNR is an enigma. I've sold puts on it because of high IV but I don't like it long term compared to $ASTS or $RKLB.

With $SNAP, I've always maintained that fundamentally it was extremely undervalued from 1.1B MAU but it just needs a change of CEO. They're heading the wrong direction with AR and should just compete with Tiktok.

With $DJT, yeah never short the President's company. 0 clue. Could be a 10x if the President wants to use his powers to help his own company, we'll never know.

@aleabitoreddit Unrelated but what are your thoughts on:

- $DJT I like this chart and hearing chatter on a possible Tik Tok deal. With the company having his name I'd assume he wants to pump it

- $SNAP Has volume picking up with a growing user base

- $LUNR space company


they're heading the wrong direction with AR and should just compete with Tiktok


The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400. When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it's a matter of time and execution.

Summary: Long NBIS with $400 1Y PT; institutional accumulation, 700%+ Y/Y ARR growth, and fundamentals intact despite -33% drawdown.

Nebius ( $NBIS ) crashed -33.61% last month, falling to a $21B market cap.

Despite this, new 13F filing data shows $NBIS institutional ownership increase:

· 38.36% → 44.6% 🟢 (+6.24%)

with Fintel placing it closer to ~46.3%.

 Nebius is a $21B MC full-stack Neocloud with:

· $7-9B forward ARR (700%+ Y/Y), 30% EBIT margins, powering $MSFT Azure, $META | enterprises from Cursor to Shopify | and Governments.

· $4.7B+ Cash, $7B+ NAV in portfolio companies that power Cloudflare, Tiktok, Tesla, Netflix and Antrophic.

As expected from last month, institutions are starting to realize this once-a-generation growth, as Neoclouds are the center of the AI DC buildout and Mag7 AI compute.

The institutional ownership of Nebius was always low <28%, due to how their unusual IPO. With high-value companies, ownership typically ranges from 60-80%.

So, we're seeing mechanical flows down + retail capitulation + margin liquidation-  > dark pools/block trades -> for institutions to accumulate at lower prices.

This type of accumulation pattern has not changed and we've seen this same story before with Robinhood ( S-st ), now at 74.62% ownership, before their rally from $20 to $150.

Irrational fear and capitulation is how institutions accumulate off shareholders. The recent drop is a change in stock price, not in fundamentals. The 1Y price target on $NBIS remains $400.

When forward growth backs up any market cap projections, it’s a matter of time and execution.

We're seeing a live crash in AI + DC stocks right now with $IREN down 37.88% this week to $NBIS down 35.27% this month.

Panic stems from Credit Tightening, High Interest Debt, OpenAI contagion, Macro, and most importantly: Irrational Fear.

Here's what happening real time:

1. https://t.co/aN6iWYEV3k


Summary: Prefers AIRO over AVAV for higher upside in a higher-beta portfolio.

@aleabitoreddit Do you prefer $airo over $avav for a higher beta portfolio?


Summary: High conviction long NBIS with cost-averaging strategy; CRWV sold recent position but watching for re-entry while holding neocloud names.

Thanks! Forgot to add above that portfolio positioning is extremely important just in case you get timing wrong + something unexpected happens so you can cost average.

So if you have $100 portfolio for example, $30k cash.  $NBIS drops $117-> $112, you can do like $15k at that level. If it drops $112 -> $105, do another $15k. If it drop $105 -> $95, you can switch that $30k to calls.

If you're doing only shares with less risk tolerance eg. 25% allocation, you shouldn't think "i should have full ported it went up 3%".  3% profit off 25% of your portfolio is already good.

Obviously just examples, from something higher conviction like NBIS, I don't really know about $PATH.

For something like $CRWV I actually bought yesterday on some drop to $120 then sold $139-140ish, and will likely wait for another entry point while I hold other neoclouds like NBIS.

---

@taleino93 Adding on to this, for long term holds, you should cost average up.

If it's materially positive like Meta for $CRWV or MSFT of $NBIS, just hold it and buy more if you think forward rev potential is not priced in from a rally.


will likely wait for another entry point while I hold other neoclouds like NBIS


Summary: Long IREN with $70 target over a year horizon; holds position bought at $40.

@chickvestor I mean I bought $IREN on Friday at $40 and still have it. Personally not a fan of buying after a 9.72% day so this is based on today's prices

I try to time the bottom a lot but if you're holding for a year, doesn't matter if you buy now and wait for $70

https://t.co/ls4L5BDxgq

@aleabitoreddit Why do you think $IREN is a HOLD position? I’m just curious.


Summary: Bullish VLN: algorithmic suppression from data typo has kept it undervalued; fundamentals suggest fair value around $7.

It’s algorithmic price suppression due to ingesting data from the $82m typo. Otherwise $VLN might be a $7 stock by now.

I’d suggest you try modeling yourself what a AI fabless semi would be valued at with $93m cash, $11m in inventory, $70-80m yearly revenue with 60%+ blended gross margins, 20-30% y/y growth, in automotive and robotics computer vision segments.

@aleabitoreddit Interesting thesis but I am confused on the inventory typo piece as this didn't seem to move the stock with it being basically flat since November. Was this an issuer earlier than Nov.? https://t.co/bXPKLfwEGa


Summary: Long BTC at $114k; sell ETH at $4.2k; long MSTR on NAV recorrection potential during Bitcoin bull run, plus long-term nationalization thesis.

I'm long Bitcoin at $114k, but sell Ethereum at $4.2k. I don't think I said to buy ETH anywhere above $3k+.

$MSTR has historically been trading between 1.6-2x NAV during Bitcoin runs. Recently it's been short MSTR/long BTC, so NAV is under 1.5x and there's potential for recorrection on a Bitcoin run (which usually goes up in Oct).

Long term, MSTR probably has the highest likelihood of being nationalized into the US treasury given how much BTC they have. I don't see ETH OR BMNR being a strategic importance for the US gov.

Otherwise I'd just recommend longing the underlying asset like BTC, or ETH if you really believed in it compared to buying the asset.

@aleabitoreddit Could you please explain why you put $MSTR as a buy, but $BMNR as a sell, with the explanation to buy $ETH instead. Wouldn't the same thesis apply for $MSTR, to buy $BTC instead? I'm just curious, trying to learn. Thanks for all the content you've been posting!


there's potential for recorrection on a Bitcoin run (which usually goes up in Oct)


Summary: Bullish SG: mass exits by others signal a good buying opportunity now.

Completely ignore it, it's better to make independent decisions based on companies. Only upside is if it helps you know when they panic sell, but you usually see mainstream news about it.

Eg. when Berkshire exited $BYD it's probably a decent buy now.

Or when everyone was panic selling $ALAB at $50 was a good time to buy.

Many of them all exited $SG so good time to buy now too.

@aleabitoreddit When you see info like this, can it be used to aid in decision making or is it just noise?

https://t.co/YhfGEguasL


Summary: China's graphite/lithium battery export controls are bullish for US domestic graphite and lithium battery stocks.

US lithium/graphite battery stocks via LIT and REMX ETFs

@EccShibaInuInv Depends on the news source but other headlines were "BREAKING: China imposes export control on graphite and lithium batteries."

No export from China = American made Graphite/Lithium battery stocks go up.

@aleabitoreddit How did you even come to those names from that headline?


Summary: Market misprices neocloud sector together; NBIS and IREN isolated from OpenAI contagion via MSFT anchor and low-cost debt, while CRWV faces junk-level 9.25% bonds.

Yep that’s a good example. If you look at convertible offerings for $NBIS and $IREN both their interest rates were 1-2.5% roughly because $MSFT (mag7) is their shared backlog.

A lot of Neoclouds are affected by OpenAi though and even by two hops like $APLD from $CRWV(main tenant), which had to sell junk bonds at 9.25%.

$NBIS is paying ~$73m/year from interest, while $CRWV is paying upwards of $1.3B. But the market seems to move the whole sector together from OpenAI contagion without discerning individual companies that are isolated.

The difference in interest debt, risk, and customer anchors is massive.

@aleabitoreddit Well said.  That would also explain why $CRWV raised funds at 9% interest rate on $2B while $IREN got less than 1% on $2B.


$CRWV is paying upwards of $1.3B... had to sell junk bonds at 9.25%


$IREN got less than 1% on $2B... their interest rates were 1-2.5% roughly because $MSFT (mag7) is their shared backlog


Summary: Long NBIS as clear neocloud leader; expects market to re-rate on forward growth/margins, surpassing CRWV in market cap.

@babyfolio It’s already the clear leader in my view! Just waiting for market to price in $NBIS forward growth/margins and the marketcap overtaking $CRWV.

Exactly why $NBIS is going to be the clear leading **NEOCLOUD**


sitting in some small $21B marketcap company is Avride, one of the only Level 4 developers out there… we can see this scale up extremely rapidly over the next year alongside their core business

Summary: Bullish NBIS as undervalued Level-4 autonomous play; also sees GOOGL/TSLA as robotaxi exposure but prefers NBIS given valuation and Avride's Uber partnership scaling rapidly.

🎯 Spot on commentary of my point. People see robotaxis as a trillion + dollar market.

$GOOGL Waymo is expanding rapidly and has first mover advantage. $TSLA is banking on low cost + cameras to achieve FSD robotaxis at scale but aren't quite there yet.

And people buy $TSLA or $GOOGL for that self-driving car robotaxi exposure through trillion dollar companies.

Yet, sitting in some small $21B marketcap company is Avride, one of the only Level 4 developers out there (that's been in development for 7+ years since Yandex).

Uber sees an immense threat from Tesla + Waymo so they're expanding with $NBIS Avride (hence the $375m investment + partnership) and we can see this scale up extremely rapidly over the next year alongside their core business.

@aleabitoreddit Investors keep reaching for autonomy exposure through trillion dollar firms like $GOOGL or $TSLA, yet one of the few fully driverless platforms in the US just happens to sit inside $NBIS.

Avride is already on the short list of Level 4 operators with real partners ( $UBER,


$GOOGL Waymo is expanding rapidly and has first mover advantage


$TSLA is banking on low cost + cameras to achieve FSD robotaxis at scale


Summary: Long SG with targets of $10 (swing) and $14+ (investing); cites potential earnings catalyst and prior $40 history.

@okcnav On WSB I said $10 if you’re swing trading.

Realistically it could go back to $14+ if earnings are good.

People forget $SG was $40 not too long ago lol so worth the risk just holding it for investing.

@aleabitoreddit Whats your target exit on $SG?


Summary: High-conviction long CRCL at $84 ($18B MC) as private-sector US Treasury extension / digital dollar; also long NBIS into 2026.

The 1000%+ Circle Thesis: USDC and the Rise of a Private-Sector Federal Reserve.

Circle $CRCL, alongside names like $NBIS, is now my high-conviction long going into 2026 for one reason:

Circle has become the private-sector extension of the US Treasury.

At a $18B MC.

A 10x+ generational opportunity capitalizing on the monetary shift on the Dollar becoming programmable and purely digital.

Circle is not a fintech company. It shouldn't be valued like a traditional one. It's a national security interest of the US Government as the digital money printer.

Here's the qualitative reasons to long Circle:

1. Circle Buys US Debt and collects interest as the private-sector extension of the US Treasury.

- As USDC market cap expands, Circle buys more short-dated US Treasuries. They are becoming one of the largest single holders of US debt in the world.

- In an era where BRICS and other blocs are trying to de-dollarize, the US government needs a digital dollar export. Circle spreads USD hegemony instantly to anyone globally, bypassing local banking restrictions.

- Circle becomes an effective "short" against other foreign currencies (with low interest or devaluation) -> convert local currencies to Circle (USD) -> buy into the US debt.

For $CRCL: The US government cannot afford to let Circle fail. It has an implicit "state-backed" strategic moat that traditional fintechs do not have.

At an $18B valuation.

2. Network effect:

Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect.

- There's hundreds of stablecoins now. Paypal USD, FDUSD, USD1, USDe, and many more to come. But Circle + USDC has already captured the network effect for the US markets (USDT, is still widely used internationally).

Everyone settles with Circle USDC now, whether that's Visa, Stripe, Banks, or more. The network effect is why Meta/Reddit have their moats. Or why Bitcoin has a 1.5T+ market cap. And exactly why USDC won't be displaced by new stablecoins.

USDC has already become the standard for settlement, issuance, storage, and cannibalizes all former settlement methods from T+2 or more rails such as Swift/ACH.

Circle has secured the ultimate network effect both in adoption + agreed upon settlement infrastructure.

With this, as more usage grows -> Circle prints more money.

3. The Private-to-Public Lag:

Lot of people don't know but I help SV venture capital firms with DD as well for fintech Seed/Series A/B type investments on the side.

From personal experience, I've seen a record breaking amount of funding pour into USDC-related companies: whether that's Stablecoin Neobanks (banks like Mecury, just powered by USDC) or settlement infrastructure with USDC.

And of course many public-news about private sector acquisitions such as Stripe acquisition of bridge for $1.1B or Banks starting to look into M&A to create USDC related products.

Many years ago this was AI and we've seen it come into fruition from Anthropic to NVDA's rise a year or two later.

Now it's stablecoins + USDC.

Public markets are lagging indicators and they haven't priced in the inevitability of USDC becoming the agreed upon settlement rail (Bitcoin for digital gold, USDC for USD/settlement).

We've seen a selloff of Circle mainly due to float dynamics, but we'll likely see hedge funds try and accumulate control of the future money printer of the USD.
_

$CRCL isn't just a "crypto stock" or "fintech company" and shouldn't be valued like one (especially pricing profitability from interest rates cuts).

It's basically the private sector digitization of the US dollar.

Ever since the GENIUS act, we're seeing companies like Circle file for charters, and effectively connect USDC into the federal reserve system.

And now we're finally seeing the start of a new Central Bank Digital Currency, but this time issued and privatized through Circle.

Go extraordinarily long on Circle at $84 ($18B MC) as both a geopolitical instrument, standard settlement currency, and as the private sector extension of US Treasury.

I’ve added 2 new stocks to my extreme growth high conviction basket in my personal portfolio.

I’ve never been wrong before about high conviction stocks on longer timeframes (eg. $HOOD $18 -> $100+)

My 5 high conviction multi-bagger stocks for 2026 are now:

$NBIS -  AI Compute


Circle $CRCL, alongside names like $NBIS, is now my high-conviction long going into 2026


Summary: Bearish CRWV on cash burn, debt load, and OpenAI backlog risk; bullish NBIS as better-capitalized neocloud alternative.

Agreed. But to @_melonBird with the SemiAnalysis ranking on $CRWV, I agree with that table. Coreweave and $NBIS are the two with full-stack nailed down in the whole Neocloud sector.

Coreweave spent many years and billions of USD on acquisitions to get software right.

However, that table doesn't mean anything when you look at company financials.

Coreweave only has $1.9B cash equivalent left and faces $1.2B+ a year from debt interest. And they'd need to raise more for buildout for their other hyperscaler contracts during a period of credit tightening (when much smaller players like $NBIS has $4.9B+ to spend on capex)

On top, 1/3 ($22B+) of their backlog comes from OpenAi which has no funding for that $1T+ promised yet, and $CRWV / $ORCL  is building out capacity for them, which presents a massive risk.

@aleabitoreddit I think exactly like you actually.
This $CRWV placement might trigger some, but it's very deserving


much smaller players like $NBIS has $4.9B+ to spend on capex


I'm omega long on $AVAV. This is probably the coolest company in the "Venezuela Invasion port"... $4b backlog, $887m contract recently, 150% y/y revenue growth (which is unholy for a military contractor), and a lot more coming from the $1.5T Department of War funding.

Summary: High-conviction long AVAV: $4B backlog, $887M contract, 150% YoY revenue growth, beneficiary of US military drone demand across multiple theaters.

I’m omega long on $AVAV.

This is probably the coolest company in the “Venezuela Invasion port”

If you want a TLDR pitch: they made the Kamikaze drones primarily used in Venezuela.

-> US invasion of Greenland? Profit
-> US drone striking Mexican Cartels? Profit

$4b backlog, $887m contract recently, 150% y/y revenue growth (which is unholy for a military contractor), and a lot more coming from the $1.5T Department of War funding.

If you want a 5 kill streak Call of Duty style Drone Strike company used in every military engagement by the Department of War, $AVAV is long.

And... We're off to the races.

"Nation Building Port" Performance Today:

$GDRZF +95.83%
$AVAV +14.7%
$CVX +5.19%
$ASHM +5.2%
$HII +3.82%
$TRGP -3.14%

I'm surprised Gold Reserve $GDRZF is only up 95%, given they're still a $333m MC with ~$8.1B in claims.

Another surprise is https://t.co/JVQjzucHN0


$TSM can raise their prices anytime for higher margins... whole AI buildout is on top of TSM, it doesn't care about who wins like $AMD vs $NVDA. Pure monopoly.

Summary: Long TSM: pricing power, margin expansion, monopoly position on AI buildout regardless of AMD/NVDA competitive outcome.

$TSM can raise their prices anytime for higher margins (which they projected 3% increase) and $NVDA will be forced to use them anyway.

Also earning projections were a blowout as expected, whole AI buildout is on top of TSM, it doesn’t care about who wins like $AMD vs $NVDA. Pure monopoly.

@aleabitoreddit @pepemoonboy Why TSM over NVDA?


Summary: Personally holding NBIS long-term with a $100B market cap target, minimum 1-year hold.

@soulbiri1 @accounting_ds $CIFR hit 16% dilution at $16 or so and now it's back at $19, it's not doom and gloom if it hits convertible note number.

For short term trading, it's a smart to take profits on stuff like $NBIS at $140, but I stand by $100B MC so I'm personally holding 1 year min.

@aleabitoreddit @accounting_ds I have more calls than shares from buying all the way down haha, do you recommend deleveraging at some point senpai? I was thinking of taking some profits off the table around $140 because of the convertible notes at $138.75 (~7% max dilution) but curious to hear your thoughts.


Summary: Bullish NBIS as core AI infrastructure with 1400% forward revenue growth; recent selloff seen as unwarranted.

AI is the largest national security issue and race in history.

AI can design nuclear weapons or create life changing discoveries based on compute.

$NBIS is the new infra of AI and Mag7 with 1400% Y/Y forward revenue.

🥭And it sold off 5.4% because of Seed Oils and Soybeans. https://t.co/VRd8RoLB4a

🧙♂ Summoning Exodia, the ideal Neocloud Deck

Exodia Deck:
🧩 $NBIS – Head
🧩 $WLAC – Left Arm
🧩 $IREN – Right Arm
🧩 $CIFR – Left Leg
🧩 $WULF – Right Leg

Pot of Greed Setup:
🏭 $TSM
⚡ $FLNC
🏡 $GLXY

When all five are in your port, Sydney Sweeney descends from the Neocloud https://t.co/dlnjgCAIxl


shorts are trapped… A surprise product launch like this, which increase forward revenue + upcoming rate cut can trigger explosive upside given short covering & stock repricing… So stupid short since they'll likely keep expanding

Summary: Strong long HIMS: 36% short interest trapped by new product launches, EU expansion via Zava, TRT market optionality, and rate-cut catalyst; HOOD cited as favorable analogy for retail-base monetization.

HIMS is 36%+ shorted.

Normally people say “shorts are trapped” for random microcaps, but with $HIMS they really are.

A surprise product launch like this, which increase forward revenue + upcoming rate cut can trigger explosive upside given short covering & stock repricing. https://t.co/3YhLuZgBQM

---

If $HIMS were just another telehealth company, I’d understand the shorts.

But they have a massive retail client base and just acquired another 1.3M users in the EU through Zava.

If the product is in fact TRT, capturing just 5% of the TRT market could add ~$125M in ARR, and they’re rolling out new products that further boost revenue.

Like $HOOD expands with crypto, banking, and card offerings for retail, $HIMS monetizes its retail base in healthcare. So stupid short since they’ll likely keep expanding.


Like $HOOD expands with crypto, banking, and card offerings for retail


that's kinda why I go with valuation approaches (in my previous post on how you get to $100B MC for $NBIS)

Summary: Bullish NBIS to $100B market cap on neocloud TAM, hyperscaler deals, and utilization-driven margin expansion; CRWV also flagged as beneficiary of Meta $14B deal and growing GPU utilization.

I've actually found AI tools like @AskPerplexity, Grok and others to be extremely off when looking at Neoclouds and sectors with new news every day.

They miss a lot of details, eg. with $NBIS you have utilization information from Whitepapers comparing Nebius to $CRWV and others that aren't publicly viewable to AI (which insinuated growing gross margins from GPU utilization).

When Meta struck a $14B deal with $CRWV and you have earnings report last week from $AMZN, $MSFT, and others you have increased capex spend into AI, and they might miss tailwinds that don't mention $NBIS directly with increased changes of more hyperscaler deals.

Or when there's an additional rate cut a few days ago that boosts forward earnings especially with Neoclouds that involve debt. Or when there's new information about subsidiaries or portfolio companies like Clickhouse that AI might put 1+1 together with.

FinX retail does a lot better job with piecing all this information together into forward growth and AI/Neocloud TAM is really hard to model given how speculative and rapidly growing it is.

That's kinda why I go with valuation approaches (in my previous post on how you get to $100B MC for $NBIS), but if you look at $UPWK and more standard businesses. I do valuation modelling differently

@aleabitoreddit @grok Analyze $NBIS’s key growth metrics over past 3 yrs: revenue/EPS/FCF per share growth, ROIC, debt/equity. Project FCF/share & stock price growth for next 3 yrs.  Give only accurate using current market data, financials, trends. No info provided without direct reference.


you have utilization information from Whitepapers comparing Nebius to $CRWV and others that aren't publicly viewable to AI (which insinuated growing gross margins from GPU utilization)


Summary: Very confident NBIS rises significantly by end of year; recommends trimming losers to buy more.

@soulbiri1 I think it's worth trimming some losing positions to buy more, just for tax loss harvesting end of year!

Very confident about $NBIS rising a lot until end of year.

@aleabitoreddit I ran out of funds to buy nebius, sad!


Summary: Bullish AXTI as InP/indium monopoly bottleneck for AI hyperscaler buildout with input materials at parabolic ATHs.

You're watching the InP "bottleneck" play out real time while hyperscalers scramble for material.

7-N Indium (required for photonics) is now parabolically exploding on SMM, reaching daily ATHs in 2026.

This is a live "Game Theory" scenario for materials controlled by $AXTI. https://t.co/3YDMVfjGTx

$AXTI is effectively a monopoly for InP, and the single point of failure for the AI buildout for:

- Nvidia ($4.6T)
- Microsoft ($3.59T)
- Meta ($1.64T)
- Amazon ($2.57T)
- Google ($3.89T)

after China's export control ban on Japan.

Looks like markets are starting to find out. https://t.co/rxGkcHYBtS


Summary: Author believes market is mispricing ETOR to the downside; implied bullish despite being at a loss.

@LegalEagle123 @BaronAfanas I'm like cost average $ETOR $48 at this point so I'm at a loss, my $VIRT is down 30% but it's expected if VIX stays low.

Thought government shutdown would have spiked VIX for a bit but turned out not to.

But yeah for $ETOR, I think the market is extremely off about this

@aleabitoreddit @BaronAfanas Bought VIRT at 35 and ETOR at 42 🤷🏻♀ trusting the process and your DD :) plan to hold both, but if your analysis on them changes, pls provide an update.


Summary: Long AXTI: export controls disrupt Japan supply chains, AXTI is a Western AI photonics monopoly at $1.3B with room to grow vs $10B+ peers.

$AXTI is just getting started imo. This is only beginning the ramp up after the export control nuke on Japan's supply chains.

This is single point of failure and a monopoly for Western's AI deployment using photonics valued at $1.3B.

You have random quantum and energy companies are valued at $10B+. I think there's room to grow.

@aleabitoreddit $AXTI almost up 20% again, trading at 24. Is it too late to establish a position at these prices?


$1B+ in interest debt a year, which is an extremely big drag on FCF + margins... the debt interest is just ridiculous

Summary: Bearish CRWV on crushing debt load vs peers; bullish NBIS as lower-risk, higher-upside alternative with better utilization and no debt drag.

For $CRWV it was $CORZ acquisition failing to get approved. Core scientific would have delivered so much more value than that 9B price tag. Having more GW capacity added to their full stack model (on top of their existing contract with them), would have been omega bullish with the acquisition.

Coreweave also has $1B+ in interest debt a year, which is an extremely big drag on FCF + margins (compared to $NBIS, $CIFR, $IREN with did convertible notes).

$NBIS already achieved what $CRWV did with full-stack vertical integration, but higher utilization + better orchestration/performance (as per their whitepaper) + no massive interest on debt + high backlogs, so markets see other lower risk, higher upside, alternatives emerging.

If $CRWV get approved for US Gov contracts though, that would be another huge catalyst upside. But we already have visibility into large contracted backlogs like $14B with $META but the debt interest is just ridiculous.

@aleabitoreddit CRWV not looking good these days. Any take on the recent happenings and near future? I'm holding quite a bit 😅


$NBIS already achieved what $CRWV did with full-stack vertical integration, but higher utilization + better orchestration/performance... + no massive interest on debt + high backlogs, so markets see other lower risk, higher upside, alternatives emerging


Summary: Reluctant Buy on SNAP: new update cuts OpEx and boosts revenue but not yet priced in.

@robswainept I still hate $SNAP from the bottom of my heart and would prefer other stocks any day of the week.

But numbers wise, the new update reduces OpEx by a ton and increases revenue, but clearly hasn't been priced in yet.

Obviously a bit early, so probably just a Buy.

@aleabitoreddit So you have this as a buy or a strong buy? 👀


Summary: Long AXTI as a current and future bottleneck supplier for photonics.

@Long311203 Yes I personally like $AXTI miles better since they're a current bottleneck and will still be one for anything photonics related.

@aleabitoreddit Isn’t that a pointless thought when you can invest in $AXTI


Summary: Holds LASR as asymmetric long: pure-play energy directed weapons, operational, small-cap with favorable risk/reward.

@SpilledMocha No clue where this heads, I just wanted exposure to energy directed weapons and found $LASR to be pure play + operational + small enough that risk/reward was asymmetrical from here


Summary: Bearish IREN: $6B ATM creates immense long-term selling pressure and egregious dilution for existing shareholders.

The $6B dilution is absolutely immense long term selling pressure for $IREN.

A lot of people understate how egregious that ATM actually is for existing shareholders.

If you believe that TA quoted where $IREN randomly goes to $130 off the chart alone when close to half of their float is diluted and later sold, idk.

@aleabitoreddit “If a company is valued at $13B issues $6B new shares then sells all of that on the open market.”

…Clearly implying that $IREN would issue the entire $6b ATM at today’s market cap.


$1m seems inevitable to me, it's how long you want to wait (like 8 years maybe)

Summary: Long BTC to $1M in ~8 years on generational wealth transfer, finite supply, digital gold; same wealth-transfer thesis applied to HOOD.

@nwongmd Extremely popular among age 30 and under.

Wealth transfer (same thesis as $HOOD) down to next generation. Finite supply, digital gold.

$1m seems inevitable to me, it’s how long you want to wait (like 8 years maybe)

@aleabitoreddit what's your thesis for bitcoin?


Wealth transfer (same thesis as $HOOD) down to next generation


Summary: Implies bullish interest in LITE supplier as a turnaround play in upstream photonic epiwafer supply chain.

Not telling people to invest, I’ve already maintained multiple times its net debt and inherently risky due to dilution and just sharing why I found it interesting.

That aside, they’re one of the largest epiwafer fabs in the world for upstream photonic supply chains and a known $LITE supplier.

The other leader is Landmark over in Taiwan and it’s sitting at $3.85B as a benchmark, so I do think there’s a turnaround potential.

@aleabitoreddit You don’t have any reservations telling people to invest in a stock with that low market cap?


Summary: Bullish POET: no debt, ~435M cash vs $1B MC, war chest to ramp Celestial production; drop is an overreaction, current price is below underwriter levels.

$POET is in an extremely good spot if you look at the financials today.

Of course this is at the expense of former retail shareholders.

No debt, ~435M cash to $1B MC. And they can use that war chest to ramp up production/inventory for Celestial.

Dilution isn't like $BMNR to put $200m into Mr. Beast's chocolate bar company.

So I'd say the drop was quite the overreaction and it's nice to get in 4%+ underneath underwriter prices.

@aleabitoreddit I added a ton to my position at this price, this over reaction seems completely dumb.


This is the biggest tailwind of the year for underwater defense companies... don't think they've been priced in yet

Summary: Long CODA, KRKNF, EXALF as unpriced beneficiaries of Iran mining Strait of Hormuz; biggest tailwind of the year for underwater defense.

Iran is now deploying mines in Strait of Hormuz.

You might be wondering like everyone else: How do I profit off Iran mining the waterway for oil?

Here's how:

Sonar for Minefields:  $CODA, $KRKNF.

Coda Octopus ( $CODA, $174M): 3D/4D/5D volumetric sonar for mines in muddy water. DAVD for U.S. Navy EOD to defuse mines.

Kraken Robotics ( $KRKNF, $2.97B):  KATFISH towed underwater vehicle is actively used by NATO navies for high-speed, high-resolution seabed mapping and minehunting

Mine Identification and Disposal:

Exail ( $EXALF, 2.2B MC ): Operates MIDS - Mine Identification and Disposal Systems

This is the biggest tailwind of the year for underwater defense companies:

As the battle moves from land to underseas: Search and Destroy for Iranian mines in the Straight.

Given this is brand new news, that came out a few minutes ago, don’t think they’ve been priced in yet.


industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'


Summary: Japan's $550B investment plan; names likely winners across synthetic diamonds for semis, gas power for data centers, and deepwater oil terminals.

A new release shows Japan is investing:

$550B USD (86 Trillion Yen) into several sectors.

The first round of investments go into these three:

1. Synthetic Diamonds for Semis (heat sink for AI chips)

- J-TEC Corporation (3446.T)
- $COHR - diamond substrates into optical (likely partner). They launched bondable diamonds in Jan 2026. Likely Element Six grows Diamondond Wafer -> $COHR bonds it to AI processors.
- EDP (7794.T)
- Element Six

Are the likely winners for this sector. The text mentions a "synthetic diamond production plant," but it does not name these companies. They are the logical technical winners.

2. Gas Power for Data Centers

- SoftBank (Explicitly named)
- GE Vernova $GEV
- Quanta Services $PWR
- Hitachi (6501.T)

3. Deepwater Oil Terminals

- EPD $EDP
- ENEOS (5020.T)
- Idemitsu Kosan (5019.T)

Sorry couldn't find English version of the article yet (and translation tools were off).

Phase 1 is $40–45 Billion (approx. 6–7 Trillion Yen).


$COHR - diamond substrates into optical (likely partner). They launched bondable diamonds in Jan 2026. Likely Element Six grows Diamond Wafer -> $COHR bonds it to AI processors


Summary: Long GOOGL capex chain (LITE, AXTI, IQE), memory on DRAM/NAND price hikes, and XLU on power/grid expansion theme.

I’m flattered lol. But I’m happy with the performance even with a relatively flat index!

A large part of it is mapping where all the spend goes.

Eg. $GOOGL $180B capex -> TPU program -> BOM of TPU -> 8-12% $LITE -> upstream materials from $AXTI or epiwafers from $IQE.

Or just the DRAM/NAND price hikes -> as simple as going long on memory.

Recently it’s been power/grid focused from Elon and OpenAI pushing for grid expansion and more capacity, so long $XLU.

I guess it’s just getting lucky with momentum?

@aleabitoreddit ur 🐐 serenity. an absolute legend. beating out market by all the possible odds.


Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung


Just fundamentally undervalued at 25-30 forward p/e when their net income is 1/3rd revenue, and they grew revenue ~70% Y/Y. Reddit is one of the few software names not disrupted by AI but sold off in the bucket. Long term they should be directionally right if you do the research.

Summary: Long RDDT long-term: fundamentally undervalued at 25-30x fwd P/E, 70% revenue growth, not disrupted by AI.

There’s no catalyst. Just fundamentally undervalued at 25-30 forward p/e when their net income is 1/3rd revenue, and they grew revenue ~70% Y/Y.

Reddit is one of the few software names not disrupted by AI but sold off in the bucket.

That being said, markets don’t always play in your favor in the short term, which is why weekly options are a bad idea.

Long term they should be directionally right if you do the research.

@aleabitoreddit What could be the catalyst for $RDDT to go up now? Datas are precious but market think its a SW company


Summary: Top robotics pick VPG as asymmetric humanoid ramp play; compares to SMCI/SNDK multi-bagger setups at inflection point.

Looks like markets are starting to find out about $VPG.

This is my top robotics sector stock.

And reminds me of $SNDK at $30 before current memory rally to $470.

Or $SMCI at $1.3 before the AI buildout rally to $100.

This may be the inflection point for robotics humanoids. https://t.co/POgwnIJyu8

$VPG is one of the least known robotic supply chain stocks.

However, it's likely the single best asymmetrical exposure to robotics Humanoid ramp for

- $TSLA Optimus

~ Figure AI

as this $580m company makes:

est. ~3-9% BOM cost of every humanoid.

$8.5B revenue may come from https://t.co/IBG9j0e0XW


I've initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m). This is an end-to-end war drone contractor... took small speculative positions in $DPRO as it's setup to be the Infrastructure of Drone Warfare

Summary: Initiated small speculative long in DPRO on drone infrastructure thesis, Army micro-factory contracts, DJI ban beneficiary, and potential 1000%+ revenue growth.

I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO ($240m).

This is an end-to-end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the $RKLB to Ondas.

$ONDS went from ($.51 -> $15, 13x) and was looking for an equivalent.

Here’s what markets (and myself missed).

Draganfly is a vertically integrated defense prime, not just a drone maker.

$DPRO controls the entire ecosystem, from the factory infrastructure to the end-drone. And it’s the largest beneficiary of NDAA that banned DJI, which controlled est. 70-80% of market share.

The biggest moat I didn’t understand earlier: embedded production.

I looked small current revenue numbers but missed the that they’re buildout distributed manufacturing throughout many US bases.

Draganfly’s contract with the U.S. Army (Sept 2025) isn't just to ship drones; it is to install Micro-Factories at US bases.

It integrates Draganfly into the fabric of US Dpt. of War, creating a layer of "stickiness" that is impossible for competitors to displace.

Here's why I entered positions: they went from $5M drone capacity ramp in 2025 to $400m.

Combining this with its partnership with Global Ordnance (where it’s a sub-contractor and Ordnance received $750 Million IDIQ), US-CAD programs (benefits from both) like $220m CAD funding to NATO.

It’s possible for $DPRO from triple digits or possibly 1000%+ revenue growth rates Y/Y.

And... revenue hits balance sheet by surprise in the earnings.

Each drone player from $AVAV, $AIRO, $ONDS, have their own specialty, $DPRO focuses on the nonkinetic and infrastructure aspect:

-> European countries like Sweden use $DPRO drones (2026) for life-saving operations.
-> DEF-C -> reconnaissance drones for Ukraine conflict -> Global Ordnance (massive defense contractor)
-> U.S. Department of War (US Army)

and those nonkinetic drones can be transformed with kinetic applications.

With $51M cash on hand (healthy balance sheet), just 20% of capacity ramp would be ~2.2 fwd p/s.

This is a very speculative venture style bet as they've been rapidly expanding infrastructure (like $RKLB at the start), with Northland giving $20 PT's.

And this is a hunch that the revenue will catch up to the infrastructure they've deployed across the US army (esp. with Replicator programs and is hidden until earnings).

$DPRO has already been popular on FinX (and it took some convincing from other users) so I've personally joined the party as I'm curious to see where it heads.

TLDR: took small speculative positions in $DPRO as it's setup to be the Infrastructure of Drone Warfare (like $RKLB back at $2 for space) with high potential upside.

 As it's extremely early, there's lot of risks as well with revenue recognition from capacity buildout.

I've initiated positions in $LPTH ($621M).

Lightpath is incredible.

Every modern thermal weapon (Missiles, Drones) requires Germanium glass, which China owns (70%)

LPTH is the only US alternative with: Black Diamond

Users?

- $ONDS
- L3Harris
- Lockheed
- Andruil (likely)
- https://t.co/XdzME21cvo


Summary: Long AXTI: $2.5B MC monopoly on photonics supply chain for AI buildout; sees $20B+ MC next year on pricing power and competitor export controls.

$AXTI controls the supply chain needed for the AI buildout for photonics. At a $2.5B MC.

I would not be surprised if it were trading at $20B or more next year.

$NVDA today showed how critical photonics are for the next few years. If AXT wanted to AXT could price hike 500% the next day for new contracts and everyone from $LITE or $COHR would happily pay it to secure allocation.

Their main competitor over in Japan got export controls by China and will likely be capacity strained in the future.

I would happy sleep on a $2.5b monopoly for the trillion dollar AI buildout

@aleabitoreddit How long we should be long on this master.


$NVDA today showed how critical photonics are for the next few years


if retail wins and doesn't capitulate, it could end up triggering one of the largest short squeezes reminiscent of GameStop from $3 to $150+

Summary: Bullish HIMS: Novo partnership + 40% short float sets up a potential GameStop-style short squeeze next week.

Just in: CEO of $HIMS announces partnership with $NVO.

This is confirmation of the report on Friday from Bloomberg.

With 40%+ of the float sold short and transparency around the Novo partnership:

This next week will end up as a battleground stock for:

Retail vs. Short Seller.

And if retail wins and doesn’t capitulate, it could end up triggering one of the largest short squeezes reminiscent of GameStop from $3 to $150+.


Summary: Long AAOI as a top photonics position on ~10x revenue growth, 6.4x forward P/E, hyperscaler demand, and Made-in-America premium; also long LITE on Google TPU/capex exposure.

$AAOI feels like must-have photonics exposure to me.

Their earnings report is genuinely black magic.

$LITE ($50B MC): FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B
$AAOI ($5.6B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR.

Their growth projections literally leapfrogged $LITE for 2026.

Not even kidding.

Gross margins are ~40% for $AAOI, maybe 45% for $LITE with OCS monopoly.

"-term objective of gross margins to around 40%,"

Don't get me wrong, $LITE is an amazing long due to 8-12% BOM of $GOOGL TPU and Google capex spend...

But $AAOI top line growth for revenue is close to 10X revenue growth from last year's revenue, which is just insane.

And if you go off napkin math modeling:

"By Q2 2027, management forecasts monthly transceiver revenue potential of $378 million"

~ $4.30B target, 40% margin (in-house), $1.72B gross profit, maybe ~$600m capex/opex:

Net income ~$896M.

Forward P/E (on 2027 NI): ~6.4x forward p/e off ~900%-ish Y/Y growth.

And if you look at photonics ramp, it's expected to increase exponentially toward 2030.

From their management call hyperscalers likely ( $GOOGL, $MSFT, $AMZN ) are buying out all available capacity for transceivers.

Reminds me of a early $ALAB or $CRDO where all the hyperscalers are their customers.

And if you get to likely price hikes like NAND for $SNDK:

+15% ASP Price Hike: $1.41B net income
- (4.1x forward p/e)
+30% ASP Price Hike: $1.92B net income
- (3.0x forward p/e)

This is why I got so excited about $AAOI post-earnings.

Not even including $AAOI "Made in America" transceiver supply chains that would give them a premium where $FN, Innolight, Eptolink, and others do theirs abroad.

Kinda like $INTC to $TSM or $MU to SK Hynix premiums.

The ROI for this is just astronomical if they hit their projections and price hikes give them a 3 p/e rate off 800%+ growth in photonics segments.

Again, these are management projections, execution is the biggest the name of the game.

Regardless, I'm making $AAOI one of my largest photonics positions because this looks like black magic and the beginning of the next $SNDK.

There's a nonzero chance we might see this at a $50B $LITE valuation one and a half year from now if they can execute on their projections.


$LITE is an amazing long due to 8-12% BOM of $GOOGL TPU and Google capex spend


Would hyperscalers pay $10B to secure their AI buildout? Yes. Lot of these bottlenecks can't be valued with traditional metrics.

Summary: Bullish AXTI despite apparent overvaluation; hyperscalers could pay $10B, traditional metrics don't apply to AI bottleneck plays.

$AXTI has now reached the legendary status of $69.69.

Was expecting close to 10x returns in a year and half, not a few months…

Everything from $AAOI to $SIVE are ridiculously outperforming.

As for AXT valuations at $4B? Is it overvalued. Yes.

Would hyperscalers pay $10B to secure their AI buildout? Yes.

Lot of these bottlenecks can’t be valued with traditional metrics.


$XLU is a once a generation type long due of AI creating critical importance to the boring grid sector... potential triple digit return long if my thesis plays out correctly

Summary: Long XLU as a generational trade: AI-driven grid demand, US grid upgrade spend, low IV, rate cut tailwind — triple-digit return potential.

Thanks, I do think $XLU is a once a generation type long due of AI creating critical importance to the boring grid sector.

Don't think we've ever seen a shift like this in awhile and IV is pricing in historical averages (flat since the dawn of time).

US will spend a lot to upgrade the grid and demand cannot be fulfilled from US hyperscalers.

Usually high interest rates hurt, but there's the tailwind of additional rate cuts too.  So, I do think this is a potential triple digit return long if my thesis plays out correctly.


Summary: Bullish AAOI on ~900% revenue growth blowout, $4.53B ARR by mid-2027 at ~40% margins; geopolitical risk dismissed.

$AAOI does not concern itself with a war in Iran.

The photonics stock with surprise ~900% revenue growth blowout projections to:

$4.53B ARR by mid-2027, off ~40% margins.

Coupled with double digit directional SI stuck.

Might not need to be. https://t.co/qKReNvBMYh

$AAOI feels like must-have photonics exposure to me.

Their earnings report is genuinely black magic.

$LITE ($50B MC): FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B
$AAOI ($5.6B MC) H2 2027: $4.35B ARR.

Their growth projections literally leapfrogged $LITE for 2026.

Not even kidding.

Gross margins https://t.co/R6BSOngtMK


Does nobody else see the parallels to $HIMS and $META and $HOOD? $HIMS literally just bought out the largest players around the world... I can't be the only one who sees potential from $HIMS global DTC retail distribution network and latent revenue monetization?

Summary: Bullish HIMS: global DTC acquisitions create a META-like retail network with cross-sell monetization potential now regulatory headwinds are clearing.

Does nobody else see the parallels to $HIMS and $META and $HOOD?

$HIMS literally just bought out the largest players around the world:

- Zava (Europe/UK)
- Livewell (Canada)
- Eucalyptus (Australia/Japan)

Without antitrust blocking it?

$META did that a decade ago with companies like WhatsApp and Instagram with minimal friction.

Now no social media company anymore can go on buying sprees due to regulator PTSD after $META ended up a trillion dollar monopoly.

$HIMS now is the largest independent global retail DTC distribution network in the world, after their M&A spree.

And just needs to figure out how to cross-sell products like what $HOOD did for financial products?

$HOOD previously had the SEC + Gary trying to block all their crypto offerings. But ever since they got regulatory headaches cleared up, they managed to scale to become a $70B company off cross-selling fintech products to their retail audience.

I'm seeing strong parallels to $NVO / Regulators trying to block $HIMS product offerings.

However, that regulatory uncertainty is now cleared up after $NVO partnered with $HIMS and FDA dropped their threats. The potential is there?

I can't be the only one who sees potential from $HIMS global DTC retail distribution network and latent revenue monetization?

Feels like people aren't articulating the bull case for $HIMS correctly:

Here's my view.

The main moat of $HIMS is network capture of retail audiences.

And the bull case is latent revenue monetization.

$HOOD achieved that same effect in fintech over 2025.

$META (fully https://t.co/LGmgQFcam0


Summary: Long POET, ALMU, and AXTI as beneficiaries of AI infrastructure bottleneck — engineering workarounds and direct exposure.

POET Technologies trades as POET on NASDAQ

@crux_capital_ Great writeup! I'm sure all players benefit both in engineering workarounds like $POET and $ALMU as well as the bottleneck itself like $AXTI.

Lot of opportunities by identifying the right players.

Pretty much sums up my entire thesis I wrote on the 7th!
$POET $ALMU $LITE $COHR

Here are excerpts from the full piece -

The Infrastructure Crisis
Artificial Intelligence creates an unprecedented computational demand and we have hit a physical wall. Data center architectures


I'm sure all players benefit both in engineering workarounds like $POET and $ALMU


as well as the bottleneck itself like $AXTI


I'm extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time

Summary: Extremely confident NBIS is a core long that will strongly outperform.

Year to Date: 316.4%

From January 2026 into February 2026.

Reflection of my short term trades and longs:

> Swing traded tax harvested stocks like $GLXY, $SMCI, and $IREN start of the year

> Rode Venezuela stocks from Gold Reserve, $AVAV, to $CVX (calls) up

> Bought into defense like $LPTH, $OSS, $AIRO after invasion from war + $ONDS “follow the leader” catalyst

> Catalyst traded $INTC and timed earnings correctly.

> Swing traded $CRDO off wire color change fears

> Swing traded $MRVL after erroneous reporting on hyperscaler client losses

> Got earnings right like $META

> Portfolio margined into $NBIS and $CIFR on the major selloff to $70 and $11.

> Swing trades things from $HOOD drop to $CRDO drop into recovery.

> Bought Bitcoin dip to $73k and heavy margin on $62k into recovery

> Recovery plays like $ETOR after selloff and ER helped.

> Getting catalysts on companies like $RPI correct

> Time lag arbitrages between Asian equities and European/US time zones.

> IV expansion off $EWY and other indexes.

> Timing rotation into power/grids like $XLU and currently swing trading stuff like $RDDT,

I’m sure I missed a bunch but these were the main ones I posted about!

On the side I would day trade:

Eg. $ORCL 8% selloff from offering into recovery or random 10% selloffs on immaterial $SOFI sellside downgrades.

I don’t post stuff like these on my main timeline since I don’t want to influence when people buy/sell.

Just want to give directional ideas and let people come to their own conclusions.

Aside from that I’m happy everything went up today, including my hedges.

This is all while my core long portfolio from:

- Photonics and memory from SK Hynix to $AXTI to supply chain bottlenecks like $AEHR and $FORM have been mogging Burry’s $PLTR $415/year returns.

- Longs from Korean/Japanese equities like Nittobo, Kioxia, and Unimicron have hard carried US equity drawdowns.

Not everything in my portfolio is green like $CRCL, $CPSH, $VLN, $NBIS or recently $INFQ.

But what matters is you have more concentration in green than red. This is all while SPY is YTD: .55% and most high beta stocks are heavily red YTD.

I also don’t want people to follow along everything since sector rotation, option arbitrage, and substrate bottlenecks are hard to digest. Since I also rotate around like 30 different stocks based on macro/earning catalysts, whereas most people focus on a few and hold on for years.

But it does hurt when more if get something wrong with short term drawdowns from Q4 2025 (if people bought short term options) and it’s only now recovered past cost average.

However, I’m extremely confident in core longs like $NBIS to strongly outperform in due time.

Hopefully people can take away one or two trade ideas that they find interesting or learn something!

——

Just some reflection, i think a reason for my recent popularity is I’m not trying to sell anything. This is also not my full time job (I run a tech company) and I was just doing this for enjoyment, so very surprised by the recent popularity.

I do think my edge is probably information synthesis and mapping -> discovering alpha markets missed -> into actionable long ideas across fintech and semis.

Compared to accounts that publish breaking news or excel in breakdowns of one or two specific stocks.

Regardless, I publish all my ideas for free just to get fulfillment if I can help others.

So it does bring me gratitude that people find my ideas interesting or high-signal enough to listen.

There’s different levels between traders:

Level 1: understanding financials, technicals, and catalysts

Level 2: becoming an analyst

Level 3: finding unpriced alpha

Level 4: finding free real estate time lag arbitrage methods

Level 5: making market makers cry after https://t.co/k5WCISQDTh