Summary: Argues NVDA's $4T market cap is justified by CUDA moat, upward integration, and Sovereign AI tailwind; bullish on continued growth.

Is a $4 Trillion Market Cap Justified for NVIDIA? — WallstCN

In July 2025, history was rewritten.

NVIDIA, the company founded by a man with a penchant for leather jackets, saw its market value skyrocket past the $4 trillion ceiling, leaving a host of traditional giants in its dust to become the absolute core of the global capital markets.

In an instant, applause, gasps, bubble theories, and doubts intertwined. Media headlines were dominated by Jensen Huang's quotes, the staggering wealth effect, and the grand narrative of AI devouring everything. But for every decision-maker in the midst of this industrial wave—be they investors, corporate strategists, or tech leaders—the real questions are far more important than the rise and fall of stock prices:

What exactly underpins this vast empire? Is it the GPUs that are being frantically snapped up? When AMD, Intel, and even the major cloud vendors all claim to have their own AI chips, why does NVIDIA's "throne" seem so unshakable? After $4 trillion, how will its growth story continue?

To find the answer, we decided to employ an "old-school" but most effective method—deep conversations with the people who are truly shaping this industry. Leveraging our extensive expert network in Silicon Valley, we spoke with several anonymous experts on the front lines of the AI battlefield. Among them were a former head of AI infrastructure at a top cloud vendor, a chief architect leading large-scale model training, and a top VC partner identifying the next tech trends on the streets of Silicon Valley.

Now, allow us to present these precious first-hand insights to you. This is not just a deconstruction of a company, but a deep analysis of the core driving force of an era.

01. The Deepest Moat Is Hidden in Invisible Code
When we asked almost every expert the same question—"What is NVIDIA's most critical barrier to entry?"—not a single one answered "chip performance." Instead, they all pointed to a creation born nearly two decades ago: CUDA.

A senior technical director who once built AI platforms at a FAANG company began our conversation with a vivid analogy:

"The biggest misconception from the outside world is still viewing NVIDIA as a hardware company. That's like thinking Coca-Cola's success lies only in its bottle. Since officially launching CUDA in 2006, Jensen Huang hasn't been selling chips; he's been 'preaching a gospel.' He built the 'Church of NVIDIA,' and CUDA is its bible."

"Today, when any customer buys an H100 or B200, they are not just paying the price of silicon; they are buying a 'ticket' into this church's ecosystem. It's an invisible, yet almost universally mandatory, 'ecosystem tax'."

CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture), a name that sounds rather technical, is the starting point of the entire NVIDIA mythos. When GPUs were still just "treasures" for gamers, Jensen Huang had the foresight to invest heavily in opening up the heart of the GPU—its thousands of parallel computing cores—to general scientific and commercial computing.

This grand strategic move has been playing out for nearly 20 years.

It is not a product, but an ecosystem. CUDA is not just a programming interface; it includes a rich set of highly optimized math libraries (like cuDNN for deep neural networks, cuBLAS for linear algebra), a powerful compiler, intuitive debugging tools (like NVIDIA Nsight), and a massive developer community.

It created a perfect model of network effects. The more developers use CUDA, the more CUDA-based applications and frameworks (like TensorFlow, PyTorch) emerge. These killer apps, in turn, attract more users and developers to the CUDA ecosystem. Once this flywheel starts spinning, the gravitational pull it generates is immense.

Today, there are over 4 million developers worldwide using CUDA. For any AI PhD student, their first line of model code is almost certainly run on CUDA. This has formed a powerful "muscle memory" that has spread from academia to industry, becoming the de facto industry standard.

02. Invisible Costs, Visible Barriers
"If CUDA is so powerful, why can't competitors like AMD's ROCm or Intel's oneAPI just create something better to replace it?" This was the question we posed to a chief AI architect responsible for large model training. He smiled and asked us in return:

"Do you know what the real cost of migrating a top-tier company's core AI business from the NVIDIA platform to another is? It's not the hardware cost of purchasing tens of thousands of new chips. It's a 'technical bill' so long it's despairing, with an amount that could be several, or even ten times, the hardware cost."

With this expert's help, we got a glimpse of the tip of this "technical bill" iceberg:

- Code Refactoring and Migration: This is by no means a simple "find-and-replace." Countless kernels, painstakingly handwritten and optimized for the low-level architecture of NVIDIA GPUs, must be almost completely rewritten for AMD or Intel chips. The underlying hardware architecture differences involved are hard for outsiders to imagine.

- Performance Optimization Hell: Even if the code is successfully migrated, the new hardware won't achieve the performance of the NVIDIA platform "out of the box." Engineers need to spend months, or even years, on tedious performance tuning, fixing all sorts of unexpected bugs, just to slowly "approach" the original efficiency. For the AI race where every second counts, this time cost is fatal.

- The Toolchain Chasm: NVIDIA provides extremely mature performance analysis and debugging tools like Nsight and NVProf, which help engineers quickly pinpoint bottlenecks. Competitors' toolchains are still years behind in terms of stability, ease of use, and feature richness. The architect confessed, "A problem that can be solved in an afternoon on NVIDIA might take a week on other platforms, and you still wouldn't know where the problem is."

- The Talent Pool Discontinuity: The harsh reality is that the number of engineers proficient in CUDA on the market is likely hundreds or thousands of times greater than those proficient in ROCm. For companies, this means higher recruitment costs, longer training cycles, and a huge risk of project delays.

- Ecosystem Inertia: Model communities like Hugging Face have the vast majority of their open-source models pre-trained and optimized for NVIDIA GPUs. When a team wants to quickly validate a new idea, the fastest path is always to "download the model and run it on an NVIDIA GPU."

"To sum it up," the architect concluded, "NVIDIA's moat wasn't dug by itself. It was built for them over the past fifteen years by millions of developers, with every line of code, every debugging session, and every project. To fill this moat, you don't need money; you need time, and an equally massive and loyal army of developers. As of now, no one can do it."

03. Upward Integration: From Selling Shovels to "Gold-Mining Factories"
If CUDA is NVIDIA's "software soul," then its "hardware" evolution strategy is equally filled with wisdom. A top VC partner with 20 years in Silicon Valley gave us a unique business perspective:

"To understand NVIDIA's business model, you can't just look at the GPU. you have to look at how its 'average transaction value' has increased step by step. This is a textbook case of 'Upward Integration.' It's essentially not selling a product, but constantly solving bigger and more valuable problems for its customers."

This top VC partner depicted NVIDIA's strategy as a four-stage rocket:

Stage 1: Selling "Parts" - GPU Chips. This is the starting point. From the G80 to Fermi, and to today's Blackwell architecture, NVIDIA has consistently maintained leadership in single-card performance. This is the foundation of all its business.

Stage 2: Selling "Equipment" - DGX/HGX Servers. NVIDIA quickly realized that customers didn't need 8 separate GPUs, but a "monster" that could make these 8 GPUs work together efficiently. Thus, it used high-speed interconnect technology NVLink and NVSwitch to tightly couple the GPUs and launched the DGX server. It was no longer selling parts, but an "out-of-the-box AI supercomputer." The average transaction value leaped from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Stage 3: Selling "Production Lines" - SuperPOD Clusters.
When customers needed to train models with hundreds of billions or trillions of parameters, one DGX was not enough. NVIDIA, through the InfiniBand high-speed networking technology acquired from Mellanox, connected hundreds or thousands of DGX servers into a massive cluster and provided a full suite of software to manage it. This is the SuperPOD. It was no longer selling equipment, but a complete blueprint for an "AI model production line." The average transaction value soared to tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars.

Stage 4: Selling "Factories" - Data Center-Level Solutions.
Today, NVIDIA is moving towards its ultimate form. It partners with cloud service providers to launch DGX Cloud, allowing customers to rent a complete "AI factory" on demand. It even gets directly involved in the design of customer data centers. What it sells is "AI capability" itself.

Through this tiered strategy, NVIDIA transformed itself from a chip supplier into an indispensable "general contractor" providing full-stack solutions within its customers' AI strategies. Each integration solved a deeper customer pain point, while also bringing higher profit margins and stronger customer stickiness.

Conclusion
The story up to this point seems legendary enough. But for a $4 trillion empire, its ambitions are far from over. Take NVIDIA AI Enterprise (NVAIE) for example; it's like the "Windows Operating System" of the AI era. After purchasing NVIDIA's hardware, enterprises can subscribe to the NVAIE service in exchange for the stability, security, technical support, and performance guarantees necessary to run mission-critical operations.

This not only opens up a new, high-margin software subscription market for NVIDIA but, more importantly, transforms its relationship with customers from a one-time transaction to a long-term service partnership.

And when this "hardware + software + service" full-stack capability is polished to perfection, it perfectly aligns with one of the most important new trends of the 21st century: Sovereign AI.

An expert specializing in geo-technology revealed the final chapter of the NVIDIA story for us:

"We are entering an era of 'Sovereign AI.' Every nation will realize that having its own independent AI infrastructure, its own foundational large models, and AI trained on its own national data is as much a part of 21st-century national sovereignty as having its own currency and military. And who can provide these nations with the complete toolkit to build 'Sovereign AI'? Today, there is only one answer—NVIDIA."

This elevates NVIDIA beyond the scope of a commercial company; its products become strategic resources in 21st-century geopolitics. This not only opens up a brand-new blue ocean market with "nations" as the unit of sale but also raises the certainty and irreplaceability of its business to an unprecedented level.

$4 trillion. This number is not a myth, nor a bubble.

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https://t.co/8slUiaRi2F


Summary: UBS raises CoWoS demand forecasts for TSMC, Nvidia (+10/8%), AMD (+23%), and Broadcom (+51%) on cloud AI capex growth and TSMC capacity expansion to 100k wpm by end-2026.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

CoWoS Demand Forecast Revised Upward: TSMC's Expansion and Cloud Provider Investment Drive AI GPU and ASIC Growth
UBS (S. Lin, 12/08/25)

UBS has raised its 2025-26 CoWoS demand forecast for AI GPUs and ASICs, driven by TSMC's capacity expansion and increased capital expenditure from US cloud service providers. It also anticipates that advanced packaging technology will accelerate its development in multiple directions.

TSMC's CoWoS Capacity Expansion and Rising Nvidia Demand
UBS expects TSMC to expand its monthly CoWoS capacity from approximately 70k wafers per month (wpm) to 100k wpm between the end of 2025 and the end of 2026. Investment in cloud AI by US cloud service providers is projected to grow by 62% in 2025 and 19% in 2026. Nvidia's CoWoS demand forecast for 2025/26 is revised upward by 10% and 8%, respectively, mainly due to higher production volumes of Blackwell GPUs and a modest incremental increase from the H20. The total number of GPUs using CoWoS packaging in 2026 is expected to increase from 6.1 million units to 6.7 million units.

Strong Demand for AMD and Major ASIC Products
AMD's 2026 CoWoS demand forecast is raised by 23%, reflecting the potential from the larger package designs of the MI400 and Venice server CPUs, with related wafer demand expected to grow by 83% year-over-year. On the ASIC front, Amazon's Trainium is projected to double its CoWoS wafer demand in 2026, driven by upgrades to Trainium 3 and 2.5; Broadcom's TPU demand is expected to increase by 51%, and Meta's MTIA project will also see a significant rise in CoWoS demand.

WMCM Mass Production Plans and Advantages
TSMC plans to mass-produce WMCM (Wafer-on-Wafer Multi-Chip Module) packaging for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro in Q4 2025, with an initial monthly capacity of about 10k wpm, potentially ramping up to 30-50k wpm. Compared to InFO, WMCM offers higher interconnect density, better thermal performance, and a thinner form factor. By packaging the application processor and DRAM side-by-side, it supports devices like foldable screens and has the potential to support future chiplet architectures.

Expansion Outlook for Multiple Advanced Packaging Technologies
In addition to CoWoS and WMCM, UBS expects TSMC and its supply chain to accelerate the capacity expansion of other advanced packaging technologies such as SoIC (System on Integrated Chips), Panel-Level Packaging (PLP), and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO). SoIC monthly capacity is projected to double to 8-10k wpm in 2025 and increase to 20-30k wpm in 2027-28. Trial production of 310x310mm² specifications for panel-level packaging is expected in the second half of 2026. CPO is anticipated to be commercialized in 2027-28, with a scaled-up upgrade for xPU integration to be completed between 2028-30.

$TSM


Nvidia's CoWoS demand forecast for 2025/26 is revised upward by 10% and 8%, respectively, mainly due to higher production volumes of Blackwell GPUs


AMD's 2026 CoWoS demand forecast is raised by 23%, reflecting the potential from the larger package designs of the MI400 and Venice server CPUs


Broadcom's TPU demand is expected to increase by 51%


Summary: Samsung Securities sets 74,000 KRW target for Samsung Elec and 340,000 KRW for SK Hynix; HBM cycle extending into 2026 with earnings re-rating.

The HBM Party Extends Next Year.
[Samsung Securities Semiconductor, IT / Lee Jong-wook]

1. HBM ASP (Average Selling Price) will likely decline in 2026 (annual).

Now, with new products commanding a price premium and older products starting to be discounted, the market will shift to one where prices (P) gradually decrease and quantities (Q) increase. We estimate next year's ASP to decline by 4%. This phenomenon is more natural when looking at other semiconductors. I don't think there's too much cause for concern.

The key is whether new products command a price premium. For HBM, new products quickly replace old ones, so the importance of a first-mover advantage for new products will not change.

2. Is HBM3E 12-layer product overbooked?

I don't think so. Production is better than expected, and while demand has been slightly pushed back, leading to the term "overbooked," cloud customers' investment intentions have not diminished. There might be concerns about inventory accumulation somewhere before the GB300 launch, but I believe this will be resolved upon its release.

3. Will cloud customer investment falter?

It's true that it's slowing down. We should acknowledge that we are in the latter half of the cycle. However, the critical point is when the CSP investment inflection point will occur, and I believe it's still time to enjoy the party a bit longer.

4. Cycle Extension to Next Year - Stock Prices Reflect Next Year's Earnings

We do not expect a re-rating of stock valuations in the latter half of the cycle. However, as the visibility of increased AI investment and earnings growth next year improves, the market is beginning to reflect next year's earnings in stock prices. Q3 holds many events that could enhance next year's visibility. Against this backdrop, our target prices of 74,000 KRW for Samsung Electronics and 340,000 KRW for SK Hynix apply the upper end of this year's valuation to next year's earnings.

Thank you.


Summary: Hanmi Semiconductor and Besi seen as beneficiaries as Samsung's SEMES struggles with hybrid bonder development, opening doors for alternative suppliers.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Report: Samsung Subsidiary SEMES Faces Difficulties in Hybrid Bonder Development… Hanmi Semiconductor to Benefit Indirectly?

As Samsung Electronics faces difficulties in developing hybrid bonders, industry attention is focused on whether it will reach out to Hanmi Semiconductor. The observation is that with Samsung's semiconductor equipment subsidiary, SEMES, making little progress in its hybrid bonder development, an opportunity may arise for Hanmi Semiconductor.

The hybrid bonder is a piece of equipment expected to be used in next-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). HBM is made by vertically stacking multiple DRAMs, and existing HBM used TC bonders for this process. However, as the number of layers increases, it is projected that future HBM will eliminate the bumps between DRAMs and connect them using hybrid bonders.

According to the semiconductor industry on the 31st, SEMES is experiencing difficulties in developing its hybrid bonder. A semiconductor industry official stated, "I understand that SEMES is having trouble finding companies to collaborate with, and the performance itself is not very good."

Hybrid bonders require technology from various front-end and back-end process equipment, such as CMP (Chemical Mechanical Polishing), plasma activation, cleaning, bonding, and laser dicing equipment. For this reason, the global semiconductor company Applied Materials is developing its hybrid bonder in collaboration with the Dutch equipment company Besi, and Hanmi Semiconductor is conducting research with TES. Hanwha Semitech absorbed the front-end process equipment division of its affiliate, Hanwha Momentum, in 2024.

It appears that although SEMES is a comprehensive equipment company with both front-end and back-end process technologies, the performance of its hybrid bonder is not reaching a satisfactory level, and it is also struggling to find partners.

Besides SEMES, Samsung Electronics is currently collaborating with the Applied Materials-Besi alliance in the hybrid bonder field, but 'high price' is pointed out as the biggest obstacle.

An official said, "It's true that the Applied-Besi equipment is better than competitors', but the price is too high." They added, "I understand that because of this, Samsung has asked various equipment companies to form clusters and present their solutions."

Samsung Electronics' difficulties are expected to act as an opportunity for Hanmi Semiconductor. This is because Hanmi Semiconductor has been actively expanding its customer base this year in response to its main client SK hynix's vendor diversification policy.

When SK hynix awarded a TC bonder order to Hanwha Semitech in the first half of the year, Hanmi Semiconductor increased its proportion of business with the American memory company, Micron.

Hanmi Semiconductor is developing a hybrid bonder in collaboration with the domestic front-end process equipment specialist TES, and plans to invest 100 billion KRW to build a hybrid bonder factory. A Hanmi Semiconductor official stated, "Rather than targeting a specific client, we are building (the hybrid bonder) from various angles and are developing it so that all three major memory companies can use it."

Another semiconductor industry official commented, "Samsung Electronics gave its subsidiary SEMES the task of developing a hybrid bonder, but it's not going well," adding, "It seems there will be an opportunity for Hanmi Semiconductor."

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https://t.co/KSEP3TZ6FC


Summary: Samsung leads GDDR7 supply; SK Hynix holds HBM4 first-mover pricing leverage; GP DRAM shortage likely in 2026.

250915_SEC: CLSA Investors’ Forum 2025 – CLSA

[Key Takeaways]

1. Demand for general-purpose DRAM, centered on GP servers, is increasing, with expectations of GDDR benefiting from rising inference demand.

2. For HBM4, the first supplier will secure a pricing advantage, but in-house base-die production enables fast quality response, strengthening competitiveness.

[Contents]

(1) General-purpose servers and On-Device AI driving DRAM demand

- Strong demand for high-density DIMMs [96/128/256GB, 1-b node] is emerging in general servers.
- Adoption of LPDDR5X in server platforms is accelerating.
- DRAM demand from PCs and smartphones remains robust in both 1H25 and 2H25. This strength is driven not only by seasonality but also by the spread of On-Device AI features.

(2) Expansion of GDDR7 adoption in AI inference chips

- The large-context AI inference GPU Rubin CPX [equipped with 128GB GDDR7] is scheduled for launch in 2H26.
- SEC leads the GDDR7 market. It is the sole supplier for RTX5090 and expressed confidence in leading supply for Rubin CPX as well.
- There is also potential supply to China-bound low-cost GPU B40, raising the likelihood of a general-purpose DRAM shortage in 2026.

(3) Awaiting NVIDIA HBM4 certification

- SEC is confident in HBM4 for NVIDIA but acknowledged that the first certified supplier [= SK Hynix] will have pricing negotiation leverage.

- No aggressive price cuts are planned for HBM3E, but with full-scale HBM4 adoption in 2026, competition among suppliers is inevitable.

- Since HBM4 production costs have risen significantly, ASPs are also expected to surge to defend margins.

- SEC emphasized that because it produces the HBM4 base die in-house, it can respond quickly to any quality/reliability issues.

(4) Update on China NAND Fab and shareholder returns

- Around 50% of China capacity has been converted to 236L.
- Transition to 290L may face delays due to U.S. regulations; discussions are ongoing with the U.S. and Korean governments.
- Share buyback program will conclude on October 8. Additional shareholder return policies will be discussed afterward.


raising the likelihood of a general-purpose DRAM shortage in 2026

Samsung Electronics listed on KOSPI as 005930.KS


the first certified supplier [= SK Hynix] will have pricing negotiation leverage


Summary: Bearish MU: HBM4 redesign raises costs, compresses margins, and may force resource shift away from HBM; profitability at risk.

KIS Comment on Micron HBM4 Issues (KIS was among the first to raise concerns about Micron’s HBM4 speed)

Q. What is your view on Micron’s 11Gbps HBM4 comment?

A. We see two possible scenarios regarding Micron’s statement that it has already submitted improved samples. Considering that the speed issue emerged only within the past month and a half, there would not have been sufficient time to prepare actual improved samples.

    1. The first possibility is that Micron sent estimated data based on a redesigned version of the product.
    2. The second is that Micron selectively supplied sample quantities by picking only the “good dies” running at 11Gbps or higher from its current wafers.

Either way, the current wafers cannot support full-scale mass production at the higher speed, and a redesign appears unavoidable. Channel checks suggest that Micron has decided to respond by redesigning the metal layers using its in-house CMOS process.

Since Micron itself mentioned achieving 11Gbps, the issue is no longer about HBM4’s overall market share but rather about profit margin differences among the three DRAM makers. In other words, profitability will hinge on how many dies per wafer can reach 11Gbps (or NVIDIA’s hurdle of 10Gbps), which will directly impact both production supply capability and gross margin.

For Micron, however, redesigning metal layers and wiring is likely to increase HBM4 costs, further narrowing the profitability gap between HBM and conventional DRAM. Given Micron’s traditional strategy of prioritizing margin improvement and FCF maximization over market share, it is possible the company may eventually shift some resources back from HBM toward conventional DRAM.

$MU


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley's cut to GB200/300 shipment forecast; implied bearish on NVDA.

MORGAN STANLEY CUTS GB200/300 SHIPMENT FORECAST

$NVDA


Reasons for a bullish outlook on ASML... I believe this benefits not only TSMC, but also equipment makers such as ASML

Summary: Bullish ASML (and TSMC): HPC shift to 2nm nodes refutes the bear case that HPC demand won't drive cutting-edge equipment spend.

Reasons for a bullish outlook on ASML:

Ahmad Khan, President of KLA’s Semiconductor Products & Solutions Division, recently stated at a Goldman Sachs event that TSMC has secured about 15 customers for its first-generation 2nm (N2) process node, of which around 10 are high-performance computing (HPC) customers. Khan noted that inspection and metrology processes are becoming increasingly important at advanced nodes when making this point.

What stands out is that the majority of the 2nm customers are in HPC. Traditionally, TSMC’s new advanced nodes had been adopted mainly by mobile application processor (AP) customers such as Apple and Qualcomm. However, with the advent of the AI era, demand for implementing high-performance computing has surged.

In my view, this serves as a rebuttal to the long-standing argument that has weighed on equipment makers like ASML: namely, that because HPC players don’t use the most advanced nodes, even if TSMC earns money, it won’t translate into demand for cutting-edge equipment.

In other words, if HPC makers in the past felt little need to adopt the most advanced nodes, they are now starting to recognize that necessity and are acting on it.

I believe this benefits not only TSMC, but also equipment makers such as ASML.


Summary: Shares Fubon's 2026 ASIC volume and revenue contribution estimates for Broadcom; implied bullish.

Estimation on 2026 ASIC volume and revenue contribution

Source: Fubon

$AVGO https://t.co/mtUBrSGxip


Summary: Shares GF Securities Outperform on SanDisk with TP raised to $132; bullish on NAND upcycle through 2026 driven by CSP eSSD demand surge.

GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Communication
☄ SanDisk: Is NAND approaching its “HBM moment”?

☀ Maintain Outperform rating and raise target price to USD 132: Following our September 9 upgrade of SanDisk, based on supply chain research with memory manufacturers and NAND procurement teams in the smartphone/PC sectors, we have become more optimistic on NAND. We believe NAND manufacturers remain disciplined in their 2026 expansion guidance, with limited new capacity additions. We estimate overall NAND supply growth in 2026 at ~15%, including YMTC’s planned expansion of 50KPM (about 50,000 wafers/month). By contrast, NAND bit demand growth is likely to exceed 20%, mainly driven by stronger adoption of eSSDs by CSPs. We believe this demand-driven upcycle could run through 2026. Accordingly, we raise SanDisk’s target price (TP) to USD 132, based on 10x CY2026E P/E, equivalent to 1.8x FY2026E P/B.

☀ NAND’s “HBM moment”: We observe that incremental eSSD demand from CSPs equates to around 10% of global NAND demand, driven by the surge in tokens generated by AI inference workloads. During inference, KV caches are stored in HBM, but once a response is generated and the session ends, this data is offloaded from HBM to HDDs or SSDs. As AI usage and token generation accelerate, the volume of data requiring storage is rising rapidly. However, HDDs remain in shortage, with lead times exceeding 52 weeks, creating a bottleneck and forcing CSPs to turn to the more expensive eSSDs. Our supply chain research indicates that eSSD demand has already been booked out through 2026, with CSPs even requesting fulfillment with lower-capacity SSDs to meet demand.

☀ NAND pricing may be stronger: In recent visits to NAND procurement teams at smartphone/PC OEMs, we noted a significant change in market sentiment following the surge in CSP eSSD orders. Previously, the industry broadly anchored to a down-cycle narrative, but the sudden ramp in eSSD volumes is shifting the story. Procurement teams are increasingly worried about supply shortages in 2026, which could prompt them to adopt more aggressive pricing strategies in order to secure short-term NAND supply. Our current model assumes NAND ASPs rise 6–8% QoQ in Q4 2025, and we believe there is still upside to this assumption.

轉

《廣發海外電子通信》
☄ 閃迪：NAND 是否迎來 HBM 時刻？

☀ 維持跑贏大盤評級並上調目標價至 132 美元：繼我們在 9 月 9 日上調閃迪後，基於與存儲廠商及智能手機/PC 的 NAND 採購團隊的供應鏈調研，我們對 NAND 更加樂觀。我們認為各 NAND 廠商在 2026


We believe this demand-driven upcycle could run through 2026


Summary: DRAM and NAND prices set to rise further in Q4 and 2026 driven by AI-led structural demand surge; Micron flagged as beneficiary.

Global DRAM basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix

DRAM, NAND Flash Prices to Rise Again in Q4

The new wave of computing power demand driven by generative AI and large language models is pushing the global memory market upward. Recently, both DRAM and NAND Flash have experienced shortages, with supply gaps proving more severe than earlier forecasts. Prices are expected to rise further in Q4 and throughout 2026. Industry insiders note that global cloud service providers (CSPs) have significantly revised upward their 2026 orders, leaving the current inventories of the three major memory suppliers insufficient. This shortage could mark the beginning of a global memory supply crunch in 2026.

At the same time, traditional hard disk drive (HDD) makers are cutting production, which could result in at least half a year of undersupply and force some orders to shift toward SSDs, further tightening the NAND supply chain. Most industry players believe that Q4 memory price hikes are already inevitable. While October contract prices have yet to be finalized, upstream suppliers are taking a more aggressive stance, with price increases likely to exceed earlier projections.

Specifically, DDR5 contract prices were previously expected to rise by 10–15%, with spot prices up 15–25%. DDR4 contract prices were forecast to increase by more than 10%, with spot prices climbing over 15%. All these numbers now have room for upward revision. The market is reacting quickly: leading memory module maker ADATA announced it would suspend DDR4 quotations starting from the 29th, prioritizing DDR5 and NAND supply for major customers.

NAND controller chip leader Phison recently resumed some quotations and directly raised prices by around 10%, a signal that the NAND Flash market is entering an uptrend. Meanwhile, memory giant Micron’s latest earnings report highlighted that AI-driven demand is spreading across data centers, PCs, smartphones, and automotive applications, laying the foundation for growth in 2026.

Global server shipments in 2025 are now projected to grow 10% year-on-year, a significant upward revision from earlier estimates. AI server demand is the strongest driver, but it is also fueling a rebound in traditional servers. The integration of AI technology into product design and manufacturing is boosting productivity by 30–40%, increasing wafer image analysis workloads fivefold year-on-year, shortening R&D timelines, and improving yields.

PC demand is strengthening due to the phase-out of Windows 10 and the rise of AI PCs. In smartphones, the high-capacity trend is accelerating, with one-third of flagship models already equipped with 12GB or more of DRAM.

In automotive, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and AI-powered in-cabin experiences require more memory, boosting demand for high-end DDR5 and LPDDR5. Real-world AI applications such as robots, drones, and AR/VR devices are also emerging as new growth engines in the embedded market.

Industry experts point out that AI is extending from data centers to personal devices and vehicles, comprehensively driving up memory demand. With AI servers ramping up, PCs and smartphones moving toward higher capacity, and rapid expansion in automotive and embedded markets, the global memory industry is entering a new phase of structural growth.

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https://t.co/R5Cfvsczge


the NAND Flash market is entering an uptrend

Global NAND sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, Kioxia, SanDisk


memory giant Micron's latest earnings report highlighted that AI-driven demand is spreading across data centers, PCs, smartphones, and automotive applications, laying the foundation for growth in 2026


Summary: Endorses TSM as one of the safest AI-era plays, citing CoWoS capacity dominance.

$TSM is one of the safest choices in the AI era. https://t.co/khmeQuQHJt

Morgan Stanley's Detailed Analysis of the TSMC CoWoS Capacity Battle: NVIDIA Secures 60%, Cloud AI Chip Market to Surge 40-50% by 2026

According to a recent research report from Morgan Stanley, a detailed forecast has been released regarding the allocation of CoWoS capacity https://t.co/unpdIBsicl


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley bullish note on HPE: raised Juniper synergy target to $600M, accretive EPS in Y1, Juniper to drive >50% of operating profit.

HPE: Synergies Target Raised, Juniper Drives Network Business Growth
Morgan Stanley (M. Marshall, 25/07/10)

Morgan Stanley notes that HPE has raised its Juniper acquisition synergy target to $600 million annually and emphasized Juniper's strong growth potential in the data center and AI networking fields, expecting the acquisition to significantly improve HPE's overall earnings structure.

Juniper 2Q25 Orders and Revenue Significantly Exceed Expectations
Juniper's second-quarter orders grew over 40% year-over-year, and revenue increased over 20% year-over-year, significantly exceeding previous expectations of approximately 10%. This was primarily driven by data center clients, followed by campus and branch scenarios. AI clients showed growth in both front-end and back-end, including deployments connecting over 1 million GPUs in new cloud services and sovereign cloud clusters.

Juniper Empowers HPE to Build a Complete AI and IT Platform
Management believes that Juniper's network stack will enhance HPE's overall AI solutions, building a more complete IT platform. Concurrently, HPE's scale advantage in global sales channels will help Juniper expand its market share, especially in international markets.

Synergy Target Raised from $450 Million to $600 Million Annually
HPE has raised its synergy target for the next three years to $600 million annually, stating that one-third will be achieved in the first year, with the remainder completed in the subsequent two years. The focus will be on G&A cost savings (e.g., real estate) and COGS improvements from supply chain optimization.

Juniper to Become a Key Component of HPE's Profit Structure
Upon completion of the acquisition, HPE's networking business (including Juniper) is expected to contribute over 50% of operating profit. Juniper is projected to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS in the first full year post-acquisition and drive free cash flow growth in the second and third years. HPE plans to release its three-year financial guidance at the SAM conference on October 15.


Summary: Bearish on ASML; short-term growth limited and High-NA EUV demand won't scale until early 2030s.

This analysis can be summarized as meaning that ASML’s short-term growth momentum is limited, and large-scale demand for High-NA EUV is unlikely to materialize until the early 2030s.

I don’t want to buy ASML stock.

Barclays' bottom-up $ASML EUV model - muted outlook:

"Though we model large leading-edge capacity additions, we do not see any increase in EUV exposures at N2 vs N3, and expect a 25% increase at A14 from N2 (only 20% without backside power), but that could be optimistic given


Samsung Electronics (OW) preferred. 1x P/B level (undervalued) → stock defensibility despite short-term performance weakness. HBM3E/4 supply chain re-entry expands DRAM revenue leverage in 2026.

Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley Asia Memory note: OW Samsung on valuation/HBM re-entry, EW Hynix on margin pressure, Neutral/cautious Micron on competition, positive Winbond on DDR4/NOR.

Asia Technology: Memory Outlook – Bad Is Good, Good Is Not (Morgan Stanley)

📉 Memory Market Outlook: Bad is Good, Good is Not

(Key Analysis on HBM and Memory Cycle in 2026)

🔑 Key Summary

- 2026 will be a year to verify the sustainability of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) profitability.
- HBM and commodity memory (DRAM/NAND) prices are highly likely to decline over the next six months, and stock prices are expected to reflect this.

HBM competition intensifies, leading to price pressure.

- HBM3E (12-hi) 2026 unit price negotiation: Expected to be $1.56-$1.74/Gb next year, down from $1.88/Gb this year.
- Samsung's potential re-entry into the Nvidia supply chain increases the risk of further declines due to aggressive pricing.
- HBM4 initial negotiations also face continued price pressure due to intensifying competition.

DRAM double-dip cycle is confirmed.
- Inventory adjustment in 2H25-1H26 after early inventory stockpiling in 1H25.
- PC/server DDR5 price negotiations delayed, customers refuse price increases.

NAND remains range-bound.
- Rebound of 5-10% in 3Q25, then decline again in 4Q25-1H26.
- AI server (especially eSSD) demand is the only growth driver.

🏭 HBM Detailed Outlook (Samsung Focus)
Samsung Electronics' return to Nvidia supply chain becomes more visible.

- HBM3E 12-hi: Customer sampling by end of August, mass production possible in Q4.
- HBM4: Samples shipped in August-September, qualification expected in 4Q25.
- 1c node ramp-up may secure process advantage over SK Hynix and Micron.

Over-supply concerns expand (2026).
- HBM bit supply +50% YoY (Samsung utilization 60% → 100%).
- Demand is expected to be +67% (16bn Gb → 27bn Gb), but supply will exceed demand at 34bn Gb.
- Inevitable price pressure, potentially falling to HBM3 levels ($1.7/Gb).

🌀 DRAM Cycle (W-shaped trend)

2H25 price weakness expected.
- PC/server DDR5 attempting 3-8% price increases, but subject to adjustment due to customer resistance.
- Legacy nodes like DDR4 and GDDR6 show sharp increases of 25-40% → supply reduction effect.

1H26 inventory digestion period.
- Early demand in 2Q25 due to tariff concerns → consumption contraction in 1H26.
- AI demand sustained, but commodity DRAM continues a gradual downturn.

💾 NAND Outlook

2H25-2026 demand slowdown.
- Smartphone demand slowdown (end of China subsidies) leads to eMMC/UFS price weakness.
- PC demand also shows early purchases due to tariff risks, followed by contraction.
- AI server eSSD and tray (4TB→8TB) increase are the only growth engines.

YMTC (China) expands production to 200k WPM in 2026.
- Full-scale supply to CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) with eSSD, bit growth +35-40% YoY.

📊 Investment Implications

Samsung Electronics (OW) preferred.
- 1x P/B level (undervalued) → stock defensibility despite short-term performance weakness.
- HBM3E/4 supply chain re-entry expands DRAM revenue leverage in 2026.

SK Hynix (EW).
- Maintains HBM leadership, but intensifying price competition leads to margin pressure.

Micron (Neutral).
- Valuation burden due to intensified competition in both HBM and DRAM.
Winbond (NOR Flash/DDR4).
- Strong DDR4 and NOR Flash prices expected to improve profitability in 2025.


SK Hynix (EW). Maintains HBM leadership, but intensifying price competition leads to margin pressure.


Micron (Neutral). Valuation burden due to intensified competition in both HBM and DRAM.


Winbond (NOR Flash/DDR4). Strong DDR4 and NOR Flash prices expected to improve profitability in 2025.

Winbond Electronics listed on TWSE as 2344.TW


Summary: Long SK Hynix as primary H20 HBM beneficiary on export resumption; long Samsung on H20 HBM spillover, GDDR7 for B30, and MI308 supply wins.

NVIDIA and AMD are expected to resume GPU exports to China, correct? Currently, SK Hynix is the primary supplier of HBM for H20.

1. Regarding H20: I believe SK Hynix will benefit from the resumption of H20 exports. The absorption of HBM volume supplied for H20 in 1Q25 could accelerate with this export resumption, and given its proven quality stability, SK Hynix products are expected to be supplied predominantly.

The next likely beneficiary appears to be Samsung Electronics. Micron, from what I understand, is not currently addressing NVIDIA's H20 demand.

For Samsung, a pre-production and then sales strategy might even help resolve the accumulated HBM inventory issues. I understand Samsung currently holds approximately 1 trillion KRW worth of HBM3E inventory.

2. Regarding B30 (RTX Pro 6000D): This product will feature GDDR7, and Samsung is estimated to supply most of it this year.

3. Regarding MI308: Samsung Electronics is also estimated to largely handle this.


The next likely beneficiary appears to be Samsung Electronics... a pre-production and then sales strategy might even help resolve the accumulated HBM inventory issues... Samsung is estimated to supply most of it this year... Samsung Electronics is also estimated to largely handle this.


Summary: Samsung foundry utilization at Pyeongtaek hitting maximum; legacy process recovery expected to shrink annual deficit and lift operating profit H2.

Report: [Exclusive] Samsung Electronics' Pyeongtaek Foundry Utilization Rate 'Hits Maximum'... Secures Series of Additional Orders in Mature Processes

It has been determined that the utilization rate of the legacy (mature) process production lines, which had been holding back Samsung Electronics' foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing) business, has entered a recovery phase. As mass production of newly won orders in legacy processes—previously cited as the cause of the foundry division's large operating losses—begins in earnest, forecasts suggest that the annual deficit will shrink.

According to industry sources on the 1st, the utilization rate of the production lines at Samsung's Pyeongtaek Campus P2 and P3, which had fallen below 50% last year, has reportedly reached its maximum level recently. These production lines are responsible for legacy processes such as 4nm (nanometer, 1 billionth of a meter), 5nm, and 7nm. It is also understood that the utilization rate of the legacy production line at Samsung's Giheung Campus is recovering rapidly as the input of mass production volume for the 8nm process increases.

Samsung's legacy production lines were identified as the main culprit for the large operating losses after suffering from low utilization in the first half of the year. During its 2Q earnings conference call on the 31st, Samsung Electronics stated, "We posted sluggish results as the low utilization of mature process lines continued." A mature process refers to a legacy process that has been in mass production for a long time, with stabilized yield and performance. Recently, the 4nm process has also begun to be classified as a legacy process. Samsung's foundry division is known to have recorded an operating loss in the 2 trillion KRW range in the second quarter of this year.

It is analyzed that profitability was hit after shipments of products for Baidu, a major 4nm process client for Samsung, were halted due to the impact of U.S. sanctions against China. Samsung had been mass-producing Baidu's artificial intelligence (AI) chips using its 4nm process. In its earnings call, Samsung stated, "An inventory provision was established due to the impact of sanctions against China on AI chips."

However, it is reported that since June this year, mass production volume has been continuously fed into the legacy production lines, bringing the utilization rate to its maximum. The analysis suggests that the utilization rate has gradually recovered through the mass production of the 'base die' for the 6th generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) developed by Samsung's Memory Division, along with cryptocurrency miners for a Chinese client, Google's mobile application processors (AP), and previous-generation APs from the System LSI Division.

The utilization rate of the legacy production line at Samsung's Giheung Campus is also understood to be increasing. In particular, mass production of orders from domestic and international clients for the 8nm process is reportedly beginning in earnest. A semiconductor industry official stated, "In addition to advanced processes of 3nm and below, Samsung has been competing for orders by advancing its legacy processes where it judges it has a competitive edge over TSMC to improve performance," adding, "It's understood that mass production input is increasing, especially in the 4nm, 5nm, and 8nm processes."

With the rising utilization of legacy processes, which had been dragging down the performance of Samsung's Device Solutions (DS) division, analysis suggests that the deficit can be reduced in the second half of the year. Seo Seung-yeon, an analyst at DB Financial Investment, said, "In the second quarter, the operating deficit widened compared to the previous quarter due to a slower-than-expected improvement in foundry utilization and inventory provisions from sanctions on AI semiconductors for China. However, starting from the second half, the company's overall quarterly operating profit is expected to increase due to improved foundry utilization."

A Samsung Electronics official explained, "We cannot confirm specific figures regarding the foundry division's utilization status," but added, "it is true that the foundry business is also expected to follow a 'sangjeohago' (weak in the first half, strong in the second) trend of gradual recovery in the second half."

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https://t.co/OEEvsafy31


Summary: Shares Bernstein estimate: NVDA China revenue recovery of $15-20B in FY2026 could add $0.40-$0.50 EPS, 10%+ above consensus.

Bernstein Estimates:

For every $10 billion increase in NVIDIA's revenue from the Chinese market, there could be an EPS uplift of approximately $0.25. If NVIDIA can recover $15-20 billion in revenue in FY2026 (ending January 2026), EPS is expected to increase by $0.40-$0.50, which represents more than a 10% upside to current market consensus estimates.


Summary: GS raises NVDA TP from $185 to $200 on higher hyperscaler CapEx, Blackwell ramp, and raised FY27 EPS to $6.75.

NVIDIA Preview, TP Raised from $185 → $200 (GS)

1. Earnings Outlook and Guidance

• FY2Q26 and FY3Q26 revenue forecasts are $41.9bn and $51.5bn, respectively, exceeding consensus by 2% and 8%

• Sales and EPS estimates for FY26–28 raised by an average of 7%

• Reflecting expected hyperscaler CapEx increases in FY27/28 (+$60bn and +$90bn, respectively) → Nvidia Datacenter revenue estimates raised by +$24bn and +$36bn

• AI startup contribution is reflected more conservatively (FY27/28 lowered by -$4bn/-$6bn)

• Contribution from China has not yet been factored into estimates, but if export licenses are approved, there is potential for FY27 revenue/EPS to be boosted by +$20bn / +$0.40

2. Key Earnings Events and Stock Reaction Points

• In FY3Q guidance, the ramp-up speed and scale of the Blackwell product lineup will have the greatest short-term stock impact

• If there is mention of the timing and scale of resuming H20 shipments to China, the stock could react

• Need to watch gross margin: if previously accrued H20 inventory (~$2.5bn) is recognized, there is room for profitability improvement

3. Mid- to Long-Term Growth and Valuation

• Investor focus is shifting from upside in 2026 to sustainability of growth in 2027

• FY27 EPS estimate raised to $6.75 (from $6.29)

• 12-month target price raised to $200 (from $185), P/E 35x

4. Investor Sentiment and Market Expectations

• Most investors in the market are holding long positions ahead of this earnings release, and expectations are already high

• As a result, market expectations for 2H25 guidance are very high, and a sensitive reaction is possible if guidance falls short


Summary: Morgan Stanley (adopted): H20/RTX PRO China license resumption is structurally positive for NVDA; AMD, AVGO, ALAB, MRVL also benefit from licensing loosening.

Nvidia: Resumption of Shipments to China Expected to Bring Structural Revenue Upside, but Short-term Supply and Licensing Processes Remain Uncertain
Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 25/07/16)

Morgan Stanley noted that the U.S. government is expected to issue licenses to Nvidia to resume exports of H20 and RTX PRO GPU products to the Chinese market. Although this change still faces short-term supply and process obstacles, it is generally a significant positive for Nvidia's stock, especially considering that China AI revenue was set at a zero baseline in previous financial reports.

U.S. Government Plans to Issue H20 Export Licenses, Potentially Restarting China Market Revenue Contribution
Nvidia announced it is awaiting U.S. government approval to resume sales of H20 and RTX Pro products in China. This license is expected to receive official support, and if implemented, it will reverse the stagnation in the Chinese market caused by previous export restrictions. Before 2023, China accounted for approximately 25% of Nvidia's data center revenue, which rebounded to 11% to 14% after the introduction of H20.

Limited H20 Spot Supply, Short-term Supply Constraints May Restrict Revenue Recovery Pace
Although Nvidia had previously made a $4.5 billion impairment charge for export restrictions, a significant portion of this included costs for canceled purchase commitments and some scrapped semi-finished products. Additionally, the company has shifted its production focus to the Blackwell architecture, and H20 spot resources are limited, facing certain cycle pressures to restart production.

Export Licensing Process Still Requires Individual Customer Applications, With Delays and Additional Restrictions
While the U.S. government has expressed support for issuing export licenses, the specific process requires each Chinese customer to submit an application to the Department of Commerce. Even under a "presumed approval" framework, the relevant process may still be lengthy, and it is not ruled out that individual licenses may come with further performance or usage restrictions.

B30/RTX6000 Positioning Ambiguous, Still Disagreement on Whether It Competes with H20
There is still debate on whether RTX6000 (formerly B30) will be affected by demand diversion from the H20 restart. This product does not contain high-bandwidth memory, has simple packaging, low production difficulty, and can be manufactured on the same line as gaming chips, but its market role is not yet clear, and some customers still view it as an intermediate transitional solution.

Long-term Chinese Demand Has Structural Upside, Especially Benefiting AMD and ASIC Vendors
Although the short-term impact is mainly concentrated on Nvidia, AMD may have a higher market share in the Chinese AI market, and if licenses are restored, it will bring greater marginal benefits. In addition, as ByteDance is Broadcom's third-largest ASIC customer, the loosening of licenses will also benefit its deployment in the $600-900 billion TAM by 2027. At the same time, H20 connector suppliers such as ALAB and MRVL are also expected to benefit, although the short-term numerical impact is limited.

$NVDA


AMD may have a higher market share in the Chinese AI market, and if licenses are restored, it will bring greater marginal benefits


as ByteDance is Broadcom's third-largest ASIC customer, the loosening of licenses will also benefit its deployment in the $600-900 billion TAM by 2027


H20 connector suppliers such as ALAB and MRVL are also expected to benefit


Summary: Bullish NVDA: sharing Dion Harris's 10x ROI case for GB200 NVL72, implying strong durable demand for Blackwell.

NVIDIA Product Leader Dion Harris:

An AI infrastructure investment of $3 million in the GB200 NVL72 can generate $30 million in revenue over three years.

Even if you received GPUs with only one-quarter the performance of Blackwell “for free,” you would still incur an opportunity cost (lost revenue) of more than $20 million.

$NVDA

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https://t.co/oCOmLGvXMx


Rating and Target Price Upgraded... more upside risk than downside risk

Summary: Morgan Stanley upgrades ASMPT rating and PT: AI data center demand driving mainstream equipment recovery, TCB growth, auto/industrial at trough with limited downside.

ASMPT listed on Hong Kong Exchange 0522.HK

ASMPT Quarterly Report: AI Data Centers Drive Mainstream Equipment Recovery, Optimistic on TCB and China's Advanced Packaging Growth Potential
Morgan Stanley (D. Dai, 25/07/24)

Morgan Stanley states that as AI data center construction begins to drive demand for mainstream semiconductor equipment, ASMPT is poised for an inflection point in its performance. Although the automotive and industrial sectors remain at a low point, overall risks are converging, and the company is performing positively in TCB and the Chinese market.

AI Data Centers Drive Mainstream Equipment Demand, Reshaping Growth Expectations

Previous conservative ratings for ASMPT stemmed from the slow recovery of the mainstream semiconductor market, while the TCB business accounted for only about 10% in 2024, making it difficult to fully offset the impact. Now, AI data centers are beginning to drive demand for mainstream equipment, including wire bonders and molding equipment. The company is expected to benefit from NVIDIA's dominant 800V HVDC data center power architecture upgrade, and supply chain customers are willing to invest in new technologies to meet its demands.

TCB Order Performance Steady, China Market Provides Future Growth Space

ASMPT continues its positive trend in TCB. C2S solution orders are growing among packaging partners of leading foundries, and AOR technology shipments for C2W are expected to increase in 2025. Although NVIDIA's Rubin platform still uses traditional processes, some HBM customers are already using ASMPT's TCB tools for small-scale production in HBM4 12H. The company also benefits from advanced packaging and HBM investments in China, giving it a competitive advantage.

Automotive and Industrial Sectors Hit Historical Lows, Limited Future Downside

Affected by weak demand, the automotive and industrial businesses' share of revenue has fallen from 41% in 1H22 to the current 23%, continuously dragging down the company's profit performance. Management expects short-term demand to remain weak, but as Tier 1 inventory gradually depletes and the Chinese automotive market performs steadily, Morgan Stanley believes this business segment is likely to rebound between 2026 and 2027.

Attractive Valuation, Rating and Target Price Upgraded

ASMPT, as a relatively lagging stock in the advanced packaging sector, has been constrained by weakness in the mainstream market and automotive/industrial sectors. Currently, AI servers are driving demand for mainstream tools, and the automotive/industrial segment is at a trough, indicating more upside risk than downside risk.


2026/2027/2028 EPS are projected at $180 / $240 / $300, significantly above market expectations. Current valuation remains inexpensive, and the recent stock price correction offers a very attractive buying opportunity.

Summary: Long Alchip (3661): Trn3 no delay, EPS $180/$240/$300 well above consensus; correction is attractive buying opportunity.

Alchip (3661) Trn3 Has No Delay; 2026/27 Earnings to Beat Market Expectations

    1. 2026 Trn3 Volume Above Expectations
    • Estimated at about 3–4 million units, especially with demand projections boosted following the release of Sonnet 4.5 for inference applications.

    • Contrary to market rumors, there has been no delay: Trn3-1 taped out in Q1 2025 and will enter mass production in Q1 2026; Trn3-2 taped out in Q3 2025 and will enter mass production in Q2 2026.

    2.    Capacity Planning With Annapurna
    • Management recently returned from the U.S. after discussions with customers about capacity planning.

    • It is reported that Annapurna has recently requested Alchip to prepare more capacity.

    • All turnkey production for Trn-2 will be handled by Alchip.

    • Market concerns about Annapurna self-fabbing chips have had no significant impact on Alchip’s demand.

    3. Trn4 Timeline
    • Customer frontend design for Trn4 is expected to be finalized in Q4 2025.

    • Netlist files will then be delivered to Alchip to begin backend design.

    4. Earnings Outlook

    • 2026/2027/2028 EPS are projected at $180 / $240 / $300, significantly above market expectations.

    • Current valuation remains inexpensive, and the recent stock price correction offers a very attractive buying opportunity.

$MRVL

轉
世芯3661 Trn3沒有遞延，2026/27年獲利優於市場預期
1. 2026年Trn3量優於市場預期(約3-4m顆)，尤其在Sonnet 4.5發布後對推理需求量預測提升。沒有如市場傳聞的遞延，其中Trn3-1已於Q1 25 tape out，Q1 26量產。Trn3-2 已於Q3 25 tape out，Q2 26量產。
2.


Goldman currently maintains a 'Buy' rating on Nvidia (NVDA) with a 12-month price target of $200

Summary: Shares Goldman's tactically cautious view: NVDA, AVGO, AMD, MRVL all likely to underperform or consolidate in H2 2025 amid lack of new hard catalysts; NVDA Buy maintained with $200 PT on 12-month basis.

Goldman Sachs: Nvidia’s stock likely to struggle to outperform large-cap peers in the second half… autumn will be a season of harvest

Amid the AI frenzy, Nvidia’s stock seems to follow a certain seasonal rhythm of “harvest in autumn, conserve in winter.”

In a report released on August 24, Goldman Sachs presented a tactically cautious view on Nvidia’s stock. While maintaining a stance of being “very optimistic” about Nvidia’s long-term growth outlook, the bank argued that based on historical trading patterns, the stock is unlikely to outperform large-cap peers over the next few months.

The bank noted that Nvidia’s stock performance shows a pattern: it rises in the first half of the year due to clear positive data but comes under pressure in the second half due to a lack of new hard catalysts. For example, its stock surged 149% in the first half of 2024, but only rose 12% in the second half.

Analysts believe that until new quantitative data points emerge that are sufficient to drive earnings expectations higher, uncertainty over the long-term outlook (i.e., into 2027) will suppress stock trends through the end of 2025, similar to trading patterns in the second half of 2023 and 2024.

For investors, this means Nvidia may be entering a tactical consolidation period, an “AI autumn.” Goldman Sachs pointed out that from now until January 2026, when hyperscale computing customers provide formal capital expenditure guidance, the market will closely monitor three potential drivers: any quantitative comments from hyperscalers in October, the company’s disclosure on the timing of its next-generation “Rubin” platform launch, and further clarity on China operations and U.S. export controls.

However, Goldman emphasized that this is only a short-term tactical judgment. The report reiterated that based on positive capex commentary from hyperscale customers and demand prospects from non-traditional customers, it remains “very optimistic” about Nvidia achieving extraordinary growth in 2026.

History repeating? “Surge in the first half, consolidation in the second half”

Goldman’s analysis revealed a distinct pattern in Nvidia’s stock performance. Nvidia’s stock usually performs strongly in the first half of each year, driven mainly by hyperscale customers like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google releasing annual capex “quantitative guidance.” These concrete numbers provide the market with solid growth expectations, boosting earnings forecasts and the stock price.

However, in the second half, the situation often changes. Although these customers continue to make qualitative comments on capex direction, the lack of new hard data to further raise expectations allows other factors to weigh more heavily on the stock.

This pattern was especially evident in the past two years:

2024 review: Nvidia’s stock surged 149% in the first half, thanks to better-than-expected capex guidance early in the year. But in the second half, market concerns about a “peak” in 2025 capex, competition from ASICs, and doubts over the timing of Blackwell’s launch emerged, leading to only a 12% gain in the second half.

2023 review: Similarly, after ChatGPT ignited the AI narrative, Nvidia’s stock soared 189% in the first half of 2023. But in the second half, even with strong fundamentals, investors began questioning the sustainability of the spending boom, compressing valuations and limiting second-half gains to 17%.

Three key variables determining performance before year-end

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, Goldman believes that in the absence of new annual guidance from major customers, Nvidia’s stock performance will depend on the progress of three key variables.

1. Hyperscale customer comments in October earnings reports.
The market will be searching for any quantitative clues on 2026 capex scale, not just directional descriptions.

2. Timing of Nvidia’s next-generation “Rubin” architecture launch.
Any clear information about the platform’s rollout will shape views on its future technological leadership and growth cycle.

3. Clarity on China business.
With U.S. export control policies evolving, further visibility on China market prospects will significantly impact investor sentiment. Goldman believes that if no substantive progress is made on these fronts, the stock may come under pressure due to a lack of catalysts.

Despite issuing a short-term caution, Goldman has not changed its long-term positive view on Nvidia. The report reiterated that based on positive commentary from cloud service providers and demand prospects from non-traditional customers, they remain “very optimistic” about Nvidia delivering excess growth in 2026.

Goldman currently maintains a “Buy” rating on Nvidia (NVDA) with a 12-month price target of $200, based on standardized EPS of $5.75 and a P/E multiple of 35x.

Divergence among AI peers: Broadcom aligned, AMD and Marvell may consolidate

The Goldman report also provided tactical outlooks for several other AI-related semiconductor companies.

Broadcom: Expected to show trading dynamics in the second half of 2025 similar to Nvidia, as the market has largely digested its AI business guidance for fiscal 2026 and 2027. Incremental data from new XPU customers and AI networking will be key to whether the stock can outperform the market.

AMD: Its potential growth in data center GPUs for 2026 and short-term strength in PC and server CPUs are already reflected in the current share price. The company’s investor day in November will be the “litmus test” for data center GPU revenue expectations and its 2026 outlook.

Marvell: Expected to remain range-bound for the rest of the year. Visibility into growth from Amazon’s custom computing business and Microsoft’s business in the second half of 2026 will be key to a breakout.

$NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL


Broadcom: Expected to show trading dynamics in the second half of 2025 similar to Nvidia, as the market has largely digested its AI business guidance for fiscal 2026 and 2027


Its potential growth in data center GPUs for 2026 and short-term strength in PC and server CPUs are already reflected in the current share price


Marvell: Expected to remain range-bound for the rest of the year


Summary: Author confirms H20 back in production, validating TSMC CoWoS capacity orders; bullish for both NVDA and TSM.

I heard about it a few days ago too.
It's true.
The H20 has definitely gone back into production.

Rumor: Nvidia has already started to prep supply chain partners for H20 production, including asking TSMC for 5,000 to 9,000 wafers of capacity, media report, adding H20 production takes around 4-months due to CoWoS advanced packaging. $NVDA $TSM #China #semiconductors


This absolutely does not mean that one should short Micron. As wafers are increasingly consumed by HBM, it is almost certain that the price of general-purpose products like DDR5 will rise. Micron can achieve profit margins of over 50% on DDR5.

Summary: Bullish Micron: DDR5 price rises as wafers shift to HBM, with 50%+ margins possible even outside HBM.

This absolutely does not mean that one should short Micron. Why is everyone thinking in such extreme terms?

As wafers are increasingly consumed by HBM, it is almost certain that the price of general-purpose products like DDR5 will rise.

Micron’s decision to allocate part of its HBM capacity to DDR5 comes from the judgment that even selling DDR5, it can still generate sufficient high profits. Of course, not as much as selling HBM, but I believe Micron can achieve profit margins of over 50% on DDR5.

To give you some additional context on this,

NVIDIA originally requested 9Gbps for HBM4.

However, when Samsung failed on d1b and instead applied d1c and SF4 to HBM4, it turned out they could hit over 10Gbps.

Micron said 10Gbps was impossible, while SK Hynix responded by saying


Summary: Author shares/endorses MS note confirming Rubin is on track with no delays; bullish read for NVDA.

Morgan Stanley confirmed that Rubin has not been delayed.

$NVDA

MS on Rubin Timeline

$nvda Rubin is on track: NVIDIA's first Rubin silicon should be out from the TSMC fab this October (first tape-out was in June). Meanwhile, our checks suggest NVIDIA's Rubin engineering sampling (ES) is on track for 4Q25, although the fine-tuning of the


Summary: Expects GE Vernova to continue rising.

@zephyr_z9 I have a feeling that GE Vernova will rise further.


Micron is likely to shift its HBM4 capacity to general-purpose DDR5 due to HBM4 speed issues... Micron's monopolistic position in CPU-targeted LPDDR5x and SoCamm (SoCAMM) is expected to weaken

Summary: Bearish MU: HBM4 speed issues cause delays vs Samsung/Hynix, capacity shift to DDR5, and monopoly in LPDDR5x/SoCAMM weakening.

Micron is likely to shift its HBM4 capacity to general-purpose DDR5 due to HBM4 speed issues

Micron is projected to face delays in its CS schedule compared to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix due to HBM4 speed issues for NVIDIA. Industry sources estimate that providing samples meeting NVIDIA’s speed conditions by 2025 will be difficult. While issues arose with HBM, Micron is expected to offset this through demand in server-oriented DRAM above 96GB and QLC eSSD.

Due to insufficient supply of server DDR5, Micron is reported to shift part of its 2026 HBM sales plan toward DDR5. Considering NVIDIA-targeted HBM4 speed issues, Micron is likely to allocate additional capacity away from HBM and into DRAM. It is interpreted as a strategic decision, taking into account structural changes in the HBM market landscape, additional Capex burdens from HBM, etc.

However, Micron’s monopolistic position in CPU-targeted LPDDR5x and SoCamm (SoCAMM) is expected to weaken. This is because SoCAMM, initially expected to be adopted in GB300, has been canceled, and Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are both preparing to supply alternatives.

$MU

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Source: KIS


Summary: CLSA reiterates Buy on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix; dips are buying opportunities on conservative CapEx, HBM demand visibility, and SK Hynix's HBM dominance.

250718_Korea Memory Sector Outlook: Read Across from TSMC's 2Q25 Call - CLSA

(1) TSMC maintains an optimistic stance on demand from AI and HPC customers.

(2) Furthermore, the company anticipates a moderate recovery in the non-AI market in 2025.

(3) Notably, TSMC's remark that "there is no change in customers' purchasing behavior" is a positive signal that could boost investor sentiment regarding semiconductor demand.

(4) However, the uncertainty surrounding US tariff negotiations and their direct and indirect impact on IT demand remains a significant uncertain factor.

(5) For these reasons, TSMC has chosen to maintain its annual CapEx guidance unchanged.

(6) Accordingly, memory companies are likely to maintain a conservative stance on CapEx, which could be positive in reducing oversupply concerns in 2H25/2H26.

(7) Meanwhile, ASML withdrew its previous guidance for revenue growth in 2026 just one day prior.

(8) This is due to customers being unable to finalize their investment plans because of tariff and geopolitical issues.

(9) Nevertheless, TSMC's robust short-term demand comments and conservative CapEx plans are judged to be positive for memory supply and demand.

(10) Hyperscaler CapEx forecasts are being revised upwards, which is increasing HBM demand visibility.

(11) However, ASML's conservative stance and TSMC's conservative CapEx execution suggest that memory companies are likely to maintain a cautious CapEx approach.

(12) Especially in HBM, performance and power efficiency are key competitive factors, and SK Hynix is expected to maintain its lead in these areas.

(13) Furthermore, customization demand for HBM4E is expected to fully materialize from late 2026, which will be positive for strengthening SK Hynix's dominance.

(14) Overall, we maintain a positive view on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and regard any stock price corrections as a buying opportunity.


SK Hynix is expected to maintain its lead in these areas... we maintain a positive view on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and regard any stock price corrections as a buying opportunity


GB200 servers are expected to begin smooth shipments starting in the second quarter of 2025, coupled with strong shipments of ASIC servers, signaling that US-based cloud service providers are poised to deliver impressive cloud performance

Summary: Supply chain analysis signals accelerating CSP data center deployments via dual Nvidia Blackwell + ASIC engines; TSMC raised full-year guidance; ODMs Quanta, Wistron, Wiwynn all bullish on H2 server growth.

Nvidia and ASIC dual engines accelerate CSP data center deployments

The GB200 servers are expected to begin smooth shipments starting in the second quarter of 2025, coupled with strong shipments of ASIC servers, signaling that US-based cloud service providers (CSPs) are poised to deliver impressive cloud performance. According to the supply chain, despite tariff-related adjustments, clients have been actively stocking up, and current orders show no signs of easing. This indicates that the AI boom will continue heating up throughout the second half of 2025.

Cloud demand remains robust despite AWS layoffs
US CSPs are set to release their second-quarter financial reports soon. Recent news about layoffs at AWS has drawn attention to the future momentum of cloud business growth. Supply chain analysis suggests that, based on shipment trends in the second quarter, CSP demand remains robust and may be reflected positively in their upcoming quarterly earnings.

Supply constraints ease as dual-system approach gains traction
The server supply chain notes that although GB200 shipments began at the end of 2024, they have been facing challenges, which also slowed down CSP cloud data center deployment progress. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy recently mentioned that if supply capacity improves, cloud business growth could be even stronger, citing difficulties in sourcing certain components such as motherboards.

According to the server supply chain, all major CSPs are simultaneously adopting Nvidia's Blackwell chip servers alongside their own developed ASIC servers. ASIC server shipments have been smoother in comparison. With these two major systems powering forward together, CSP data center construction is expected to accelerate.

Tariff concerns fail to dampen growth outlook
The supply chain further explains that in response to reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, clients aggressively stocked inventory in the first half of the year. While there were concerns about a potential slowdown in purchasing momentum during the second half, TSMC's recent earnings call reassured stakeholders. Despite tariff uncertainties, TSMC raised its full-year revenue growth forecast, driven primarily by strong demand from AI and other high-performance computing (HPC) applications.

TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei stressed that client behavior remains unchanged for the second half of the year. Server original design manufacturers (ODMs) hold a positive outlook on orders for the latter half, expecting continued growth. The only variable is the generational transition of Nvidia GPUs, which may cause short-term fluctuations; however, server shipments are projected to grow both year-over-year and compared to the first half of the year.

Server momentum drives ODM optimism
Quanta and Wistron both assess that servers will remain the main growth driver in the second half. Wistron's President and CEO Jeff Lin noted that tariffs inevitably impact economic conditions, especially mature products like notebooks and smartphones. However, AI servers are still in the development phase, with clear customer demand, representing a rigid demand that is less affected by tariffs.

Wiwynn also reported strong shipments of both the GB series and ASIC servers in the second half. Wiwynn's President and CEO William Lin stated that benefiting from simultaneous shipments of Nvidia's GB series servers and ASIC servers, CSP cloud data center deployments will proceed more smoothly in the coming months.

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https://t.co/jFZJytBZCV


TSMC raised its full-year revenue growth forecast, driven primarily by strong demand from AI and other high-performance computing (HPC) applications


Quanta and Wistron both assess that servers will remain the main growth driver in the second half

Quanta in server/ODM context = Quanta Computer, TWSE 2382.TW


Wiwynn also reported strong shipments of both the GB series and ASIC servers in the second half


Summary: Shares/endorses UBS Buy on NVDA with PT raised to $205, driven by strong Blackwell ramp, CSP capex, and China revenue recovery.

NVIDIA FY26Q2 Earnings Preview: Strong Upside Momentum
UBS (T. Arcuri, 25/08/21)

Earnings Outlook

FQ2 (July) revenue is expected to be around $46.0 billion, about $1.0 billion above the prior quarter. FQ3 (October) guidance is $54.0–55.0 billion (ex-China), and could reach $57.0 billion including China. Compute business is expected to grow 20%–25% QoQ in FQ3, contributing about $7–8 billion incremental revenue; Networking is expected to be around $6.0 billion, with total data center revenue reasonably expected at $49.0 billion.

China Market and H20 Factors

The company may leverage already provisioned H20 inventory, while also adding Hopper wafer orders and developing a Blackwell version for China. H20 demand remains uncertain: on the one hand, customers are being discouraged from purchasing; on the other hand, projects such as Deepseek R2 were delayed due to lack of H20. Overall, China’s market is expected to restore several billion dollars of revenue per quarter, but a 15% license fee must be borne, which is expected to impact gross margin by 50–60bps. FQ3 gross margin is expected to be 73.5%.

Supply Chain and Shipments

GPU output increased +20% QoQ in CQ2 and is expected to rise another +30% in CQ3, reaching about 5 million units for the year, with an ASP of about $33,000, still below UBS Asia team’s forecast of 6.5 million units. Hon Hai expects Q3 cabinet shipments of about 4.6k units (vs 1.15k in Q2), while Quanta confirmed that customers are ramping Blackwell Ultra. The UBS team raised its 2025 cabinet shipment forecast from 27k to 28k, with potential to reach 30k.

Demand and Capital Expenditure

Overall demand is strong, with Texas data centers adding 40GW of new power demand. The four major CSPs’ 2026 Capex forecast was raised by $75 billion in July, reaching nearly $400 billion, with capital intensity expected to rise to 41%, almost double that of 2023.

Valuation and Price Target

UBS estimates F2026/C2025E EPS at $4.53, F2027/C2026E EPS at $6.85, and F2028/C2027E EPS at $7.05. Based on a 29x PE, UBS raises its price target from $175 to $205, maintaining a Buy rating.

$NVDA


Summary: Shares Barclays raise in AI server revenue forecasts alongside NVDA ticker; implied bullish endorsement.

Barclays: AI server revenue raised to $235B in CY25 and $324B in CY26.

$NVDA https://t.co/ubw1y7Qsx2


NVIDIA's GB200/300 shipments are expected to remain strong, with Vera Rubin set for mass production from 2H26. No signs of schedule delays so far.

Summary: JPMorgan sees no AI CAPEX peak, forecasts +20% growth in 2026; maintains positive view on TSMC, SK Hynix, Hon Hai, Delta; strong NVDA shipments expected with Vera Rubin in 2H26.

250825_Asia Tech Strategy: No signs of excesses in Gen-AI – JPMorgan

[Key Takeaways]
1. No signs of overheating in the AI industry at present.

2. Top 4 CSP CAPEX forecast: $398bn in 2026 → $468bn in 2027 (YoY +18%).

3. Adoption rate of reasoning models among ChatGPT users has increased 3–7x within just a few months.

[Contents]

1. Over the past week, concerns have re-emerged in the market about an AI CAPEX peak-out in 2026.

2. The reasons are:
- ROI still low due to limited AI adoption,
- Concerns about companies’ ability to continuously finance CAPEX.

3. On top of that, there is a lack of near-term momentum in NVDA/AMD’s GPU shipments to China.

4. However, our view is different.

5. We see no signs of overheating in AI investments.

6. The top four hyperscalers are still funding CAPEX with growing OCF, and we see sufficient growth potential even into 2027.

7. Even if OCF increases by just +10% in 2027 while FCF remains flat at 2026 levels, the top four hyperscalers could still raise CAPEX by +18%.

8. In addition, large private AI labs and sovereign AI efforts are expanding (Human, Stargate, Anthropic, etc.).

9. On the consumer side, the scope of AI is expanding significantly, and adoption of reasoning models is still in its early stages—with token consumption rising steeply.

10. Currently, 7% of free ChatGPT users and 24% of paid users are leveraging reasoning models. Just a few months ago, the figures were only 1% and 7%, respectively.

11. In 2027, we expect further growth driven by wider adoption of reasoning models and the emergence of enterprise/agentic AI workloads.

12. China is also only at the beginning stage of CAPEX growth, implying additional demand potential.

13. Overall, we forecast AI CAPEX to grow by at least YoY +20% in 2026.

14. We maintain a positive view on TSMC, SK Hynix, Hon Hai, Delta as key leaders, while also seeing opportunities in substrates, OSAT, and Chinese AI infrastructure companies.

15. In 2026, the Google TPU supply chain will likely show the largest growth, followed by those related to NVIDIA, AMD, and Amazon.

16. NVIDIA’s GB200/300 shipments are expected to remain strong, with Vera Rubin set for mass production from 2H26. No signs of schedule delays so far.

17. For NVIDIA’s quarterly earnings this week, we expect topline growth of around QoQ +14%, excluding shipments to China.

18. Positive factors: growth in inference tokens, rising demand beyond the U.S. top four hyperscalers, resumption of shipments to China.

Negative factors: competition from ASIC adoption (e.g., TPU, Trainium).


We maintain a positive view on TSMC, SK Hynix, Hon Hai, Delta as key leaders


lack of near-term momentum in NVDA/AMD's GPU shipments to China


Summary: Shares BofA Buy on AMD with PT raised to $200; bullish on AI GPU revenue, CPU share gains, and above-consensus 2025/2026 estimates.

AMD, PT Raised to $200 from $175 (BofA)

1. AI GPU Revenue Momentum

- Potential to resume shipments of MI308 AI GPU to China in 2025 (premised on U.S. BIS approval).
- 2025 revenue upside: Approx. $0.7–1.0bn.
- 2026 revenue upside: Approx. $1.5–2.0bn.
- Strong pricing for current-generation MI355X GPU ($20K+ vs. consensus $17K) → ASP improvement.
- Increase in cloud Capex → Continued strong demand for AI.
- In the total AI GPU market, AMD has the potential to reach approx. $12bn in revenue by 2026 (+70% YoY).

2. PC Market Outlook: Risks Priced In

- 2H25 PC demand is low compared to seasonality (similar to INTC).
- INTC Q3/Q4: Expected +4%/+2% QoQ (down from traditional +9%/+4%).
- AMD Q3/Q4: Expected +2%/+0% QoQ (lower than traditional +15%/+14% → already reflects conservative outlook).
- Some Q2 PC demand was pulled forward due to tariff issues → a headwind for the second half.
- Intel's 18A products to launch in Q4 2025, with a significant impact from 2026 → AMD's competitive advantage is expected to continue.

3. Expectation of CPU Market Share Expansion

- Total CPU (PC + Server) market share: Expected to grow from <20% in 2023 to >30% in 2026.
- Competitor estimates: Intel 73% → 59%, ARM 8% → 11%.
- AMD continues to have a competitive advantage over Intel in the x86-based PC and cloud markets.
- PC: AMD commands a +17% premium over Intel.
- Server: AMD commands a +64% premium over Intel.

4. Potential for Upward Revision of Financial Guidance

- Q2 revenue estimate: $7.5bn+ (consensus $7.4bn).
- Q3 revenue estimate: $8.5bn+ (consensus $8.3bn).
- Full-year 2025 revenue/EPS forecast: $33bn+ / $4.10+ (consensus $32.2bn / $4.01).


I think Intel's 18A will have a hard time succeeding. Especially from what I've heard from people at Intel, 18A can't even make chips with large dies like AI GPUs. When the die size gets bigger, the process errors become so severe that it becomes difficult to manufacture.

Summary: Bearish Intel foundry: 18A process has fatal yield issues with large dies, undermining its ability to win custom ASIC customers.

I think Intel’s 18A will have a hard time succeeding.

Especially from what I’ve heard from people at Intel, 18A can’t even make chips with large dies like AI GPUs.

When the die size gets bigger, the process errors become so severe that it becomes difficult to manufacture.

My intiuition still says, @Intel foundries best customer option is the custom ASIC, both custom CPUs and XPUs, from the likes of Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft etc.,  Those volumes, depending on year are in the 5-6 million range and $10-15b in foundry revenue.


Global leaders such as Besi and ASMPT… conducted preliminary tests in hopes of supplying sample equipment to SK Hynix, but have been unable to advance further

Summary: Hanwha Semitec leads hybrid bonder race as sole SK Hynix sample supplier; Hanmi defending HBM turf via alliances; Besi/ASMPT locked out of SK Hynix memory hybrid bonder so far.

“Hanwha Semitec is the only company to supply hybrid bonder samples to SK Hynix”… Hanwha Semitec takes the lead

Beating out global semiconductor equipment giants, Hanwha Semitec has been carrying out exclusive R&D with SK Hynix, solidifying its position in the hybrid bonder market — a technology expected to become critical in high bandwidth memory (HBM) manufacturing. The company plans to reflect the expertise gained from joint development into its second-generation product, set for release early next year, and aims to secure an edge in upcoming mass production qualification tests. In response, Hanmi Semiconductor (042700), eager to defend its foothold in the HBM equipment market, has been building alliances with equipment makers such as TES (095610) and HPSP (403870). LG Electronics (066570), also expanding into the equipment field, has teamed up with domestic player Justem (417840), intensifying the three-way competition to capture the next-generation bonder market.

According to industry sources on the 15th, Hanwha Semitec — a subsidiary of Hanwha Vision (489790) — is currently the only company to have supplied hybrid bonder sample equipment to SK Hynix. Since 2022, SK Hynix and Hanwha Semitec have been testing the tool’s performance, safety, and areas for improvement. The second-generation hybrid bonder, scheduled for launch in early 2026, incorporates the improvements identified in collaboration with SK Hynix. Hanwha Semitec also intends to supply samples of this second-generation equipment to SK Hynix and carry the process through to full-scale mass production quality verification.

The hybrid bonder is the next-generation HBM bonding tool that succeeds the TC bonder. While the TC bonder uses solder balls (tiny spheres of solder for electrical connections) to bond chips, the hybrid bonder directly bonds chips without solder balls. Hybrid bonding boosts data transfer speeds and allows more compact semiconductor packaging. With each HBM generation requiring higher stack heights, hybrid bonding is increasingly viewed as indispensable technology.

Though Hanwha Semitec was a latecomer in the TC bonder race, it is now seen as moving ahead in the emerging hybrid bonder market. Global leaders such as Besi and ASMPT, which dominate the hybrid bonder market in non-memory areas like CMOS image sensors (CIS), also conducted preliminary tests in hopes of supplying sample equipment to SK Hynix, but have been unable to advance further.

An industry insider commented, “Hanwha Semitec is widely regarded as having the leading edge in hybrid bonder performance. By early next year, SK Hynix’s preferred equipment supplier should become clearer.”

Hanmi Semiconductor, which has led the TC bonder market, is also accelerating efforts to secure hybrid bonder capabilities to maintain leadership in the next-generation segment. Although its product launch timing is seen as somewhat late, the company has recently revealed partnerships with domestic equipment maker TES and is reportedly pursuing collaboration with HPSP as well. Unlike TC bonders, which primarily required back-end semiconductor process expertise, developing a hybrid bonder also demands front-end process capabilities such as cleaning, thin-film deposition, and annealing. Hanmi is aiming to accelerate development timelines by partnering with these companies.

LG Electronics, which has entered the bonding equipment market, is likewise pushing ahead in technology development by working with Justem on government-funded hybrid bonding equipment projects. ASMPT and Besi are also stepping up efforts to extend their hybrid bonder expertise from system semiconductors into the memory sector.

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https://t.co/NvKtwXScFU


Summary: Shares JPM's bullish Ironwood revenue forecast for Broadcom: $9B in 6-7 months, $15B+ lifetime.

JPM expects Ironwood to generate $9 billion in revenue for Broadcom within the next 6–7 months and to contribute over $15 billion in total lifetime revenue.

$AVGO


지금은 샤오미가 더 저렴해보여서요

Summary: Xiaomi is the only real Tesla rival among Chinese EV makers and currently looks cheaper; implied long.

@jeff_in_every BYD가 다들 테슬라의 경쟁자라고 ���하지만...저는 BYD보다 샤오미가 유이한 테슬라의 경쟁자라고 봐서요 ㅎㅎ

중국 메이커중에 엔비디아 칩 사서 자율주행 훈련시키면서 차도 꽤 품질 좋게 만드는 메이커는 샤오미가 유일하다고 생각합니다

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@jeff_in_every 물론 테슬라가 가장 기술력 좋다고 생각하지만...지금은 샤오미가 더 저렴해보여서요


the meeting was to discuss increasing the adoption of Micron's DRAM in the S26. $MU

Summary: Rumor that Samsung MX may shift S26 DRAM supply to Micron due to Samsung DS LPDDR5X technical issues; bullish for MU share gains.

Rumor: The reason why Samsung MX Division President TM Roh recently met with Micron’s SJ is that Samsung DS Division’s 1bnm-class LPDDR5X is facing technical issues (such as overheating and performance degradation), and the meeting was to discuss increasing the adoption of Micron’s DRAM in the S26.

$MU


Summary: Bullish global DRAM: 4-year memory supercycle 2024–2027, AI-centric demand reshaping TAM via HBM, SOCAMM, and Edge AI to 53% AI share by 2027.

Changes in DRAM TAM Share from HBM, SOCAMM, and Edge AI

• In 2023, AI DRAM TAM was essentially 100% HBM. By 2025, it will account for 33% of total DRAM, and by 2027, it is expected to expand to 53%.

• Structural demand expansion will emerge as dependency on pure HBM gives way to the combined growth of SOCAMM (server CPU memory) and Edge AI demand.

• The structure of DRAM demand will rapidly be reshaped into an “AI-centric” model.

Entering a 4-Year Memory Supercycle (JPM)

1. Global Memory Cycle
    • With surging datacenter and AI compute demand, a four-year upcycle is expected from 2024–2027.
    • Global memory TAM revised up by 6–24% versus prior estimates.
    • Introduction of HBM4E in Rubin Ultra https://t.co/IL9PiWxb6i


Summary: Long Korean defense stocks; still at attractive valuations.

Korea defense basket: Korean Air, Hanwha Aerospace, Hyundai Rotem

@stevehou I agree. Korean defense stocks are still trading at attractive valuations. https://t.co/oNHGIgxXZW

Korean defense and Asian defense in general is under-appreciated as an investment theme.


SK Hynix has established itself as NVIDIA's main partner starting from the HBM3e generation and is ahead in both technology and production for HBM4. It is scheduled to be the priority supplier for NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin GPU, securing market trust and a basis for market share expansion.

Summary: BofA note: SK Hynix dominant in HBM4 (60% share, Rubin priority supplier); Samsung delayed and losing NVIDIA share; Micron benefits from 2027 supply tightness; HBM4 price premium 20-40%+ supports DRAM re-rating.

Global Memory Tech (BofA)

1. HBM Competitive Landscape

1. HBM4 Mass Production Timing and Market Share Outlook
- SK Hynix to begin early mass production of HBM4 for NVIDIA’s next-generation GPU Rubin in 4Q25, while Samsung is expected in 1Q–2Q26.

- 2025 will remain centered on HBM3e (led especially by SK Hynix), with full-scale HBM4 competition beginning in 2026.

- 2026 market share outlook: SK Hynix ~60%, Samsung ~20%, Micron the remainder.

2. Price Premium Structure
- Initial HBM4 shipments (4Q25–1H26) could carry more than a 40% price premium over HBM3e (current estimate 30%).

- Even during large-scale shipments in 2H26, a premium of 20%+ is expected (higher than the previously expected 15–20%).

- In 2027, with Rubin GPU memory capacity increasing (288GB → 384GB/1TB), potential supply shortages could maintain the price premium.

3. Samsung Electronics Situation
- Samsung’s large-scale mass production of HBM4 is delayed, and media reports of production starting at the end of 2025 (Nov–Dec) are considered lacking in basis.

- Samsung’s 12-layer HBM3e production volume is focused on secondary customers rather than NVIDIA as a main customer, indicating delays in obtaining full qualification from NVIDIA.

- Current 12-Hi HBM3e capacity expansion at Samsung is more centered on non-NVIDIA customers.

4. SK Hynix Advantage Factors
- SK Hynix has established itself as NVIDIA’s main partner starting from the HBM3e generation and is ahead in both technology and production for HBM4.

- It is scheduled to be the priority supplier for NVIDIA’s next-generation Rubin GPU, securing market trust and a basis for market share expansion.

- Based on the 1c node, DDR5 will also be launched in the market starting 4Q25, enabling reliable customer response in both HBM and DDR5.

5. Structural Characteristics of the Market
- HBM4 competition is viewed as a “win-win structure”: SK Hynix will maintain its lead, but Samsung will also secure some share.

- With the significant increase in Rubin GPU’s memory demand in 2027, overall HBM demand could exceed supply, benefiting all three major players.

- With price premiums and strong demand, HBM4 is expected to be the key driver for DRAM makers to defend profit margins and for stock re-rating.

2. CHIPS Act and Equity Stakes

- Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have low likelihood of transferring or newly issuing equity stakes to the U.S. government.

- Strong opposition is likely due to shareholder value dilution and concerns over U.S. government intervention in management.

- The unfavorable scenario is if CHIPS Act subsidies are injected directly into U.S. fab assets rather than into the parent company’s equity.

- Samsung holds over KRW 100 trillion in cash, and SK Hynix, with record-high profits, may be able to operate U.S. plants even without subsidies.

3. DRAM and Server Demand

- Beyond HBM competition issues, strong orders for server DDR5 have been confirmed.

- Demand is segmented: 96GB in China, 128–256GB modules in the U.S.

- 4Q server DDR5 bit growth expected at 10%+, with supply limited to below that level → ASP projected to rise 5%+.

- SK Hynix’s 1c DDR5 expected to enter the market in 4Q, while Samsung’s 1c node is focused on HBM4 sampling.

$MU $NVDA


Samsung's large-scale mass production of HBM4 is delayed, and media reports of production starting at the end of 2025 (Nov–Dec) are considered lacking in basis. Samsung's 12-layer HBM3e production volume is focused on secondary customers rather than NVIDIA


With the significant increase in Rubin GPU's memory demand in 2027, overall HBM demand could exceed supply, benefiting all three major players


Micron also projected that its market share in HBM4 would rise compared to 2025… In its fourth-quarter earnings report, Micron posted an earnings surprise… EPS came in at $3.03… far exceeding Wall Street consensus estimates

Summary: Shares bullish Micron news: HBM4 elimination rumors denied, beat-and-raise quarter, rising HBM market share projected, $100B HBM market by 2030.

Micron CEO Denies Rumors of HBM4 Elimination… “Mass Production to Begin in First Half of Next Year”

Micron has effectively denied rumors circulating in the Korean securities market that the company had been eliminated from the HBM4 competition.

On the earnings conference call held on the 23rd (local time), Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO of U.S. memory chipmaker Micron, said:
“Micron plans to transition to HBM4 in 2026, and we can provide industry-leading data processing speeds of 11 gigabits per second (Gbps) to meet customer requirements,” adding that “the first shipments will be in the first half of 2026.”

Micron also projected that its market share in HBM4 would rise compared to 2025. The company stated that it is currently in discussions with customers about specifications and volumes, and that it plans to finalize sales contracts for the remaining supply of its entire 2026 HBM capacity within the next few months. Regarding HBM3E, Micron announced that pricing negotiations for the bulk of its supply have already been completed with most customers.

Recently, in the semiconductor industry—especially among securities analysts—speculation had been spreading that Micron failed to meet NVIDIA’s requirement of achieving 10Gbps performance in HBM4.

However, given the disclosed mass production schedule, it is possible Micron hurriedly redesigned its product to meet NVIDIA’s demands, since its timeline specifies production next year rather than this year. The company also said that for the next generation HBM4E, it will cooperate with TSMC to produce the base logic die.

The CEO also offered an optimistic outlook for the HBM market:
“By 2030, the HBM market will reach $100 billion,” said Sanjay, noting that “HBM’s growth trajectory is clearer than that of general DRAM, and this trend will continue in 2026 as well.”

In its fourth-quarter earnings report (June–August), Micron posted an earnings surprise. The company recorded revenue of $11.32 billion (about 15 trillion KRW) and operating profit of $3.96 billion (about 5 trillion KRW), up 46% and 126.6% year-over-year, respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.03, up 156.8% compared to the previous year, far exceeding Wall Street consensus estimates of $11.12 billion in revenue and EPS of $2.87.

DRAM sales drove the strong results. Micron’s Q4 DRAM revenue rose about 70% year-on-year to $8.98 billion. In contrast, NAND revenue fell 5% year-on-year to $2.25 billion, as the recent uptick in NAND prices had not yet been reflected.

For its fiscal Q1 2026 guidance, Micron projected revenue of $12.2–12.8 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.60–3.90.

Sanjay emphasized:
“As the only memory manufacturer in the United States, Micron is in a unique position to take advantage of the upcoming opportunities in the AI industry.”

$MU

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https://t.co/KWUhHb5CMn


Summary: Bullish memory cycle; Samsung TP KRW 93,000 and SK Hynix TP KRW 430,000 on 2026 OP forecasts as commodity DRAM/NAND upcycle extends into 1H next year.

The Commodity Fever
[Samsung Securities, Semiconductor/IT – Jongwook Lee]

The recent rally in memory stock prices is due to the rise in commodity prices.
Many investors believe that the memory price upcycle is still at an early stage, and we are also witnessing strong FOMO for Asian tech stocks, not just in Korea.
It may be useful to calmly consider how long this rally can last, and what events could mark the turning point.

1. Why is it rising?
It is still more about supply than demand.
Since supply has been aligned with conservative demand assumptions, even a small increase in demand can trigger a sharp price reaction.
There’s also the bad memory of last year when DRAM prices fell because server-side commodity demand didn’t materialize as consumer demand turned out weak.
Yield deterioration and supply disruptions due to technical issues are also commonplace.
This time, however, there has been a modest increase in demand from general servers.

2. Why now?
We believe that with stronger cloud investment and capacity build-outs for AI inference, commodity memory demand crossed a tipping point after 3Q.
As a result, memory makers gained pricing power in 4Q negotiations, both on inventory and demand fronts.
The decisive factor for investors was that HDD price hikes and Samsung’s QLC disruptions spread the rally further into NAND prices.

3. How long will it last?
We think the probability of memory price increases lasting into the first half of next year has risen significantly.
Directly speaking, prices can keep rising repeatedly until memory suppliers decide on new commodity capacity expansion.
We see three conditions for the end of this commodity rally:
    1. new capacity expansion,
    2. suppliers overcoming technical hurdles, and
    3. the end of interest rate cuts or a shift to rate hikes.

4. Profit outlook
We forecast for 2026:
    • Samsung Electronics OP of KRW 46 trillion, target P/B of 1.4x, TP KRW 93,000
    • SK Hynix OP of KRW 51 trillion, target P/B of 2.1x, TP KRW 430,000

The key points are:
    1. Unlike HBM, all memory players will benefit, which means relative “catch-up” pricing will work, and
    2. current earnings and target prices are in an upward revision trend; more importantly, this signals a turning point in memory capex direction.

Please refer to the full report for further details.

Thank you.


SK Hynix OP of KRW 51 trillion, target P/B of 2.1x, TP KRW 430,000