Summary: Bullish NVDA: China demand to shift from supply-constrained to performance-driven, sustaining Chinese CSP adoption.

However, the fact that Chinese CSPs are choosing Nvidia chips due to supply constraints is expected to change by next year.

As the FT previously reported, China is planning to expand its fab capacity to produce an enormous number of semiconductor chips.

Chinese CSPs will choose Nvidia chips not because of supply shortages, but because of performance.

Nvidia is bound to succeed in China.

China’s competing chips are still inferior to Nvidia’s, and now Nvidia is about to launch a chip in China that is six times more powerful than the H20.

$NVDA https://t.co/DiWOmLlsNw


Bank of America's analyst team led by Wamsi Mohan reaffirmed a "Buy" rating on Apple and maintained a $250 price target

Summary: Shares/endorses BofA Buy on Apple with $250 PT, as services overtake iPhone in gross profit contribution.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Why BofA Is Bullish on Apple: Apple Is No Longer Just a Hardware Company but a Service Empire

Apple’s profit core is quietly shifting from hardware sales to the services business.

Bank of America pointed out in a research report released on August 15 that Apple is undergoing a meaningful transformation. The report projects that starting in fiscal year 2025, services will overtake the iPhone to become the company’s largest contributor to gross profit.

According to the report, in fiscal year 2025 the services business is expected to account for 42% of Apple’s annual gross profit, with the iPhone trailing at 41%. This marks the first historic moment when services surpass the iPhone.

More importantly, this gap is expected to widen further going forward. In fiscal year 2027, the contribution from services is projected to expand to 44%, while the iPhone will decline to 39%.

Two Key Drivers

1. Higher Profitability
The profitability of services far exceeds that of hardware. As of the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, the gross margin of the services business reaches 75.6%, while the products business is only 34.5%.

2. Faster Growth Rate
Bank of America’s model expects services revenue to maintain a “low double-digit” (about 12%) annual growth rate over the next few years, while iPhone revenue growth is expected to be in the “mid single digits” (about 6%).

Thanks to higher margins and faster revenue growth, the services business is likely to continue contributing more to the annual year-over-year increase in gross profit than the products business.

⸻

Factors That Raise the Valuation Multiple

Because the services business has higher margins and lower cyclicality, the analysis is that as its profit contribution grows, Apple deserves a higher valuation. This is the key logic behind Bank of America’s $250 price target and maintained “Buy” rating.

⸻

Nature of Earnings: From Cyclical to Secular

The report emphasizes that iPhone sales exhibit a degree of “cyclicality,” being susceptible to product launch cycles and the macro consumption environment. In contrast, services revenue is regarded as “secular,” with more stable and predictable growth.

In addition, thanks to the optimization of the business mix, the company’s overall gross margin has been steadily moving toward 50%, after hovering around 40% for more than a decade. As the share of services grows, cash flow and earnings elasticity are significantly strengthened.

The report summarizes this as follows:

“If a higher share of gross profit comes from the stable and secular services business, it naturally deserves a higher valuation multiple.”

⸻

Conclusion

Bank of America’s analyst team led by Wamsi Mohan reaffirmed a “Buy” rating on Apple and maintained a $250 price target.


Samsung has reached its target yield earlier than planned in the development stage of its next-generation DRAM product, the 10-nano 6th generation (1c) DRAM, and is preparing for initial mass production... could start ramp-up 3 to as much as 6 months ahead of SK hynix

Summary: Samsung 1c DRAM yield ahead of schedule, HBM4 ramp could beat SK Hynix by 3-6 months; foundry wins Tesla/Apple orders and US tariff policy acts as tailwind.

Samsung, Why the Confidence in HBM4 Next Year? Higher-than-expected Yield and Ramp-up Timing

While Samsung Electronics is solidifying its foundation for the revival of its semiconductor business, Chairman Lee Jae-yong recently returned from visiting big tech companies in San Francisco and Silicon Valley for two weeks, leaving behind a meaningful remark: “We have prepared for next year’s business.” Analysts interpret this as the company chief personally stepping in to reinforce the customer base for a full revival, as Samsung’s semiconductor division faces difficulties from memory to foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing).

Lee’s mention of next year’s business is widely seen as a step to validate the results Samsung has been preparing since the first half of this year with major customers in the second half, and then begin mass supply starting next year. In fact, after showing sluggish performance for 1–2 years in general-purpose memory, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and foundry, Samsung has recently aligned the focus of all its businesses toward next year, steadily completing next-generation technologies one by one.

◇ Next-generation DRAM business with repeated redesigns and verification… “Faster than competitors”

According to industry sources on the 19th, Samsung Electronics has reached its target yield earlier than planned in the development stage of its next-generation DRAM product, the 10-nano 6th generation (1c) DRAM, and is preparing for initial mass production. Samsung originally expected to begin mass production at the same time as SK hynix or about 1–2 months earlier, but at the current pace, it could start ramp-up (large-scale mass production) 3 to as much as 6 months ahead of SK hynix.

The reason 1c DRAM is important is because it is mounted on the next-generation HBM, HBM4 (6th generation HBM), and serves as a key material that will determine the success of the HBM market. A source familiar with Samsung Electronics said, “Hwang Sang-jun, head of DRAM development, who enjoys the full trust of Vice Chairman Jun-Young Jeon, has been taking cautious steps, like knocking on a stone bridge multiple times before crossing it,” and added, “To avoid repeating mistakes made with 1a and 1b DRAM, he carried out several rounds of redesign and verification early on, and recently, encouraging results have been reported internally.”

Samsung, which repeatedly stumbled with its HBM3E (5th generation HBM) 12-layer product, is also seeing momentum toward supplying its largest customer, Nvidia. Global securities firms such as Morgan Stanley (U.S.) and GF Securities (Hong Kong) are lending weight to the “August test pass” speculation regarding Samsung’s HBM3E. In the case of HBM4, it will be completed through Samsung Electronics’ foundry division process, making it a critical turning point where the memory and foundry businesses can create synergy.

An industry insider said, “The investment boom in generative artificial intelligence (AI) is creating immediate market reactions and demand for server memory technology upgrades,” adding, “If Samsung succeeds in mass-producing state-of-the-art DRAM based on 1c technology, it could demonstrate a ‘scale’ advantage in production capacity over SK hynix and Micron, thereby monopolizing larger profits.”

◇ Will foundry turn into a cash cow?

The foundry division, which has been cited as the cause of Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor slump with quarterly losses in the trillions of won, has recently shown signs of recovery. Right before Lee’s departure for the U.S., Samsung announced a 22.7648 trillion won foundry contract with Tesla, and during his U.S. trip, news also emerged of winning orders from Apple. While Apple did not specify the type of chip, the industry expects it to be an image sensor (CIS) for the next-generation iPhone.

President Trump’s semiconductor tariff policy has, in effect, become advantageous for Samsung Electronics, which already operates fabs in the U.S. Unlike TSMC, which is rushing to build fabs in Arizona and elsewhere, Samsung has been running its Texas foundry for over a decade. More recently, it is preparing to operate its Taylor plant. Having cooperated with local companies for a long time, Samsung is said to have gained an edge in securing orders for automotive chips and other sensor products.

In 2014, when Samsung beat out TSMC to secure Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 14-nano mobile application processor (AP) order, it was also evaluated as a successful result of its localization strategy. At that time, Samsung signed a production license agreement with U.S. foundry company GlobalFoundries (GF) to expand production capacity and stabilize manufacturing, an unconventional move that helped secure the deal with Qualcomm.

Not only in Taiwan and Japan, but also in Europe, many semiconductor companies have relied on either in-house production or outsourcing to TSMC. However, with the launch of the Trump administration’s second term, it is highly likely they will look for partners to manufacture chips locally in the U.S. In Japan and Europe, there are numerous companies designing chips in fields ranging from sensors to automotive, consumer electronics, and security. While Samsung Foundry has traditionally focused on major customers and advanced process orders, it is said to have recently shifted course, building a solid performance base by expanding its portfolio through mature processes.

---

https://t.co/hRoUdxbbgu


Samsung originally expected to begin mass production at the same time as SK hynix or about 1–2 months earlier, but at the current pace, it could start ramp-up 3 to as much as 6 months ahead of SK hynix


Summary: UBS raises DDR/NAND price forecasts to +5% QoQ in 4Q25 and sees a modest up-cycle into 2026; bullish memory sector, mixed on individual names with Samsung lagging on HBM certification.

DRAM semiconductor basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

Semiconductor Memory Commentary: Returning to a Modest Up-cycle Before 2026
UBS (N. Gaudois, 12/08/25)

UBS expects a stronger-than-anticipated performance in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25) and is significantly raising its DDR and NAND contract price assumptions, reaffirming its view of a modest up-cycle leading into 2026. Growth in HBM demand, improving end-market demand, and capacity constraints at some competitors will support price trends.

4Q25 Pricing Expectations Raised
In 3Q25, average contract prices for both DDR and NAND rose by approximately 3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). Current inventory levels are around 9-10 weeks for PC/mobile DDR, 13-14 weeks for server DDR, and 8-13 weeks for NAND. Demand from smartphones and PCs is stable, with initial signs for Q4 being positive. A decreased risk from U.S. Section 232 tariffs also provides support. A recovery in demand from hyperscale customers for DDR and enterprise SSDs has prompted UBS to raise its 4Q25 QoQ contract price forecast for DDR and NAND from the previous -3% and -5%, respectively, to +5%.

Modest Price Up-cycle Before 2026
UBS forecasts that DDR and NAND contract prices will continue to see small sequential increases each quarter until 3Q26. The reasons for this include: HBM demand diverting production capacity, improving end-market demand (e.g., servers), and limited yields for CXMT's 16nm DDR5 making a repeat of last year's DDR4 oversupply unlikely. In the long term, the rising proportion of HBM should help mitigate the volatility of traditional memory cycles. This current DDR contract price cycle is expected to see a 23% increase from trough to peak. The next down-cycle (2027-28) may see a 43% decline, followed by a projected 28% increase in the subsequent up-cycle (2028-29).

HBM Demand Forecasts Raised
The 2025 HBM bit demand forecast has been raised by 4% to 16.9 billion Gb (+96% YoY), and the 2026 forecast is raised by 3% to 26.1 billion Gb (+55% YoY). This is driven by upward revisions to shipment expectations for Nvidia's AI GPUs, especially Blackwell Ultra and H20. Nvidia's AI GPU procurement volume is estimated to be 6.5 million units in 2025 and 7.0 million units in 2026.

Supply-Side Dynamics
SK hynix's 2026 HBM bit shipment forecast is revised down to 16.1 billion Gb (+27% YoY), primarily due to constraints on its capacity expansion. Micron's shipments for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 5.3 billion and 8.9 billion Gb (+67% YoY), respectively, with its new Boise factory not expected to produce its first wafers until the second half of 2027. Samsung's shipments for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 4.6 billion and 7.6 billion Gb (-9% and +63% YoY, respectively); it has not yet received Nvidia's certification for HBM3E 12-Hi, and its HBM4 wafer input is not expected to begin before January-February 2026. UBS believes the HBM supply-demand situation will be largely balanced in 2026.


Micron's shipments for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 5.3 billion and 8.9 billion Gb (+67% YoY), respectively


SK hynix's 2026 HBM bit shipment forecast is revised down to 16.1 billion Gb (+27% YoY)


Samsung's shipments for 2025 and 2026 are projected at 4.6 billion and 7.6 billion Gb (-9% and +63% YoY, respectively); it has not yet received Nvidia's certification for HBM3E 12-Hi

Samsung in semiconductor context = Samsung Electronics, 005930.KS


2026 Could Be a Key Year for Valuation Revisions … the preliminary forecast for 2026 is a 9% year-over-year decline, but the risk is skewed to the upside. If the order structure proves favorable, there's potential for upward revisions to the outlook

Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley bullish note on KLA: DRAM-driven process control intensity rising, 2026 forecast conservative with upside risk skewed higher.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

KLA: Focusing on DRAM Upside Potential, 2026 Could Be a Key Year for Valuation Revisions
Morgan Stanley (S. Brett, 2025/07/20)

Morgan Stanley notes that while KLA's September quarter guidance was slightly better than market expectations, it wasn't a substantial catalyst. Market focus has shifted to the strength of DRAM-driven demand in the second half of the year and its potential impact on upward revisions to 2026 forecasts.

September Quarter Guidance Slightly Raised, Meets Expectations but Unlikely to Be a Valuation Catalyst
KLA expects September quarter revenue to see a low single-digit sequential increase (approx. $3.1 billion), which is better than the market's expectation of a 1% sequential decline but broadly in line with buyer expectations. As the market generally anticipated China and DRAM to drive second-half growth, the current guidance is unlikely to lead to further valuation re-rating.

DRAM is the Market Focus, Determining the Upside for 2026 Earnings Revisions
Morgan Stanley believes that the market will not reward valuation increases driven by China, but it will react positively to DRAM-led growth. SK Hynix might be a major client in the second half. If its spending is for improving yields on existing production lines (rather than new capacity builds), it would resemble TSMC's strategy of reinvesting in older process nodes.

Declining Yields Drive Demand for Process Control, KLA Benefits Significantly
The application of EUV and HBM in DRAM is lowering yields, prompting manufacturers to increase investment in process control. KLA notes that the intensity of process control in DRAM has increased from 8-9% to 9-10%. This is expected to further increase by 100-200 bps with higher HBM penetration, which is favorable for its product demand.

Decreased DRAM Output Efficiency Further Boosts Demand for KLA
DRAM bit output per wafer is estimated to decline year-over-year in 2024, marking the first such decrease since 2012. This is mainly due to yield issues at EUV nodes and low HBM die utilization (estimated die discount of 3x in 2024, reducing bit output by 8%). Manufacturers need to either improve yields or expand capacity, both of which present opportunities for KLA.

2025 Market Share Expected to Rise, 2026 Forecast Remains Conservative
Institutions expect KLA's DRAM revenue to grow by 28% year-over-year in 2025, significantly higher than the industry's +5% increase, with market share rising from 5.8% to 7.4%. The preliminary forecast for 2026 is a 9% year-over-year decline, but the risk is skewed to the upside. If the order structure proves favorable, there's potential for upward revisions to the outlook.


~7% and 5% EPS upside for LAM and AMAT in 2026, respectively

Summary: Morgan Stanley raises 2026 semi-equipment bull case to $50B on stronger memory prices, implying ~7% EPS upside for LRCX and ~5% for AMAT.

Memory Semiconductor Equipment: Stronger Memory Prices Push 2026 Bull Case Expectations Higher

Morgan Stanley says that strengthening memory prices are pushing up the 2026 semiconductor equipment bull case scenario to USD 50 billion (vs. previous estimate of USD 43.8 billion), which implies around 7% and 5% EPS upside for LAM and AMAT in 2026, respectively.

The firm noted that 2026 DRAM bit growth expectations have been raised to 22%, corresponding to potential DRAM equipment investment of USD 35 billion; NAND bit growth was revised up to 26%, corresponding to NAND equipment investment reaching USD 15 billion.

Although capital expenditure in the second half of 2025 is unlikely to see a clear near-term upside, the tight NAND supply–demand balance and the trend of eSSD replacing HDDs are reinforcing the possibility of ramped-up investment in 2026.

(Morgan Stanley, S. Brett, 16-Sep-2025)

$LRCX


Summary: Morgan Stanley cuts AMD PT to $168, maintains Equal-weight; lowered confidence in China demand and no clear AI upside catalysts make current valuation hard to sustain.

AMD: Weaker 3Q EPS Guidance
Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 08/25/25)

Each business segment performed strongly this quarter, but the timing of a recovery in the Chinese market is more ambiguous than expected. The GPU business lacks clear short-term upside, which may make it difficult to sustain the current high valuation premium. However, the MI400 remains the core source of market optimism for 2025 and is the key value driver for the stock.

Key Points

- AMD's third-quarter revenue guidance of $8.77 billion exceeded market expectations, but the EPS upside was weakened by rising operating expenses.
- Shipments of the MI308 to China were not included in the guidance, mainly due to the uncertain timing of license approvals. This was in line with expectations, but management's tone was more conservative than we anticipated.
- The MI400 series is still viewed as a significant milestone in the AI field, and the company remains optimistic about the product's potential.
- We are lowering our price target to $168 and maintaining our Equal-weight rating due to decreased confidence in China demand and a lack of overall AI upside drivers.

Revenue Growth Remains Strong, but It's Hard to Sustain Optimistic Expectations

Although AMD's third-quarter guidance was well above market expectations, several factors make the revenue growth appear less attractive:

1. The outperformance in the second quarter was primarily driven by the console gaming business, which is one of AMD's lowest-quality segments.

2. Data Center GPUs are expected to grow year-over-year in the third quarter, which we estimate will exceed $1.6 billion. Combined with management's mention of strong server growth and growth in the Embedded and Client businesses, we believe the overall figure will not be $100-200 million higher than this level. Therefore, we are only raising our full-year Instinct revenue forecast by $250 million. Uncertainty remains for the fourth quarter, and the company has not provided clear guidance for this business. Considering the stock's forward P/E multiple has increased 15x over the past three months due to rising expectations for the AI business, we would have preferred to see an upward revision to the 2025 AI-related revenue forecast rather than for the gaming business, especially given the tight supply-demand situation for AI computing power.

3. Operating expenses exceeded expectations, limiting the extent of EPS improvement.

Sales to China Not Yet Included in Guidance, Management Tone More Cautious

AMD did not include any potential impact from selling the MI308 to China in its guidance because license approval remains uncertain. This is similar to NVIDIA's statements. AMD did not suggest that it could quickly convert inventory into shipments once licenses are approved, and the phrase "could take several quarters" mentioned in the conference call implies a much longer timeframe than we expected. It's worth remembering that in April this year, the company had estimated the China market gap to be $700 million. We believe this conveys a degree of conservatism and also reflects that the company is less optimistic about the overall opportunity in the Chinese market than we previously anticipated, even though this could have been a multi-billion dollar annual opportunity for AMD.

MI400 Remains a Key Driver of Future Value

The MI400, as the next-generation product, remains the core factor driving the stock price. Management's comments on the product were generally positive and in line with expectations. On the conference call, the company reiterated that its performance is expected to meet or exceed the level of Rubin and create "billions of dollars" in AI revenue in the future.

However, aside from this "billions of dollars" statement, the company did not provide guidance for its AI business beyond the current quarter. It did not offer a more specific breakdown of this year's "strong double-digit growth," nor did it specify when these "billions of dollars" would be realized. We do not see this as a sign of caution, but rather as the company's reluctance to define success or failure based on the performance of a single year.

Other Businesses Besides AI

The Embedded business is continuously recovering and is expected to return to growth in the second half of the year, which will help gross margin performance. The company is also ramping up the MI355.

The Gaming business has performed remarkably well over the past two quarters and is set to grow approximately 2.5x year-over-year, mainly due to an acceleration in console shipments after a prolonged inventory destocking cycle. However, without the launch of a new generation of consoles, we believe it is unrealistic for annual revenue to return to the $6 billion level of 2022/2023.

The PC business also remains strong. Although we expect a digestion period after several quarters of strong performance, we have not yet seen this trend. We remain conservative on this market. Intel has clearly stated that it sees signs of pull-in demand in the market, and if subsequent unit shipment growth is lower than expected, we would be concerned about Intel's more aggressive competitive approach. But what is certain is that AMD is continuously gaining market share, and this trend is unlikely to change in the short term.

Detailed Segment Data

The company's revenue for the quarter was $7.685 billion, up 3.3% sequentially and 31.7% year-over-year, higher than the market consensus of $7.415 billion and our estimate of $7.393 billion.

By business segment:

- Data Center revenue was $3.24 billion, down 11.8% sequentially but up 14.3% year-over-year.
- Client revenue was $2.499 billion, up 8.9% sequentially and 67.5% year-over-year.
- Gaming revenue was $1.122 billion, up 73.4% sequentially and 73.1% year-over-year.
- Embedded revenue was $824 million, up 0.1% sequentially but down 4.3% year-over-year.
- Gross margin was 43.2%, in line with the market consensus (43.1%) but slightly below our expectation of 43.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) were $0.48, consistent with both market and our expectations ($0.48 and $0.49, respectively).

Third Quarter Outlook

- The company guides for third-quarter revenue of $8.7 billion (midpoint), up 13.2% sequentially, which is higher than the market consensus of $8.323 billion and our estimate of $8.280 billion.
- The company expects a third-quarter gross margin of 54.0%, a significant increase of 1080 basis points sequentially and 44 basis points year-over-year, in line with the market's expectation of 53.9% but below our expectation of 55.9%.

Forecast Adjustments

- We now forecast Q3 revenue of $8.73 billion, a non-GAAP gross margin of 54.1%, a non-GAAP operating margin of 24.8%, and EPS of $1.16.

- For fiscal year 2025, we are raising our forecast to $33.419 billion in revenue, a 52.0% non-GAAP gross margin, and EPS of $4.28 (previously $32.413 billion / 52.5% / $4.20).

- For fiscal year 2026, we expect revenue growth of 20% to a total of $40.044 billion, a non-GAAP gross margin of 55.9%, and EPS of $6.13 (previously $38.920 billion / 55.7% / $6.12).

View on the Stock

Our previous investment thesis was that AMD could maintain a high valuation premium based on its AI business, especially with the potential upside from the China market and traditional customers. However, the current revenue performance has not led us to significantly raise our 2025 AI revenue expectations. The China market could still bring upside, but management's tone on this market is more cautious than expected. Against the backdrop of the current unprecedented AI investment frenzy, AMD's lack of short-term catalysts makes it difficult for us to get excited, especially considering the stock's current valuation is still higher than companies that have already started to deliver on AI upside.

The future MI400 could improve AMD's position, but this remains to be seen amidst the rapid advancements of ASICs and NVIDIA. Although AMD remains strong in its other business areas (partly thanks to Intel's disarray), the uncertainty in AI leads us to maintain an Equal-weight rating. We would like to see more explicit enthusiasm from customers for AMD's mid-to-long-term AI product roadmap, which is not yet apparent.

Our previous price target was based on a median 2026 EPS of $5.49, corresponding to a 34x P/E multiple. We are now raising our EPS estimate to $5.59 but lowering the valuation multiple to 30x (or 27x on a non-GAAP basis), primarily due to decreased confidence in the China market as a driver, which was one of the reasons for our previous premium valuation. The current valuation is still higher than its peers but lower than AI leaders NVIDIA and Broadcom. Therefore, we are lowering our price target to $168.

$AMD


Summary: Shares JPM NVDA outlook: F4Q rev $63-64B above $61.5B consensus, beat-and-raise probability very high.

JPM’s NVIDIA outlook:

• For FY26, total rack shipments are expected to be around 28,000–30,000 units.

• J.P. Morgan expects F4Q revenue of $63–64B, above the F3Q revenue consensus of about $55.8B.

(Street consensus: $61.5B.)

• The probability of a beat-and-raise is very high.

And… what really stands out to me is this:

“We expect the average selling price (ASP) of HBM4 to rise by 30–40% versus HBM3e, but what is more noteworthy is that we see LPDDR price increases as an even bigger source of pressure. NVDA is already going to reflect higher HBM ASPs in how it prices Rubin and lock in HBM4 prices with memory manufacturers in advance, but in the case of LPDDR it is likely to remain exposed to floating market prices. As far as we can tell, in the current pricing environment long-term supply agreements (LTAs) allow you to secure volume but not price.”


Summary: Relays bullish thesis: memory era incoming via HBF (2027-28); SK hynix and Samsung best positioned; Micron/SanDisk potential Nvidia acquisition targets.

“Father of HBM: Nvidia May Acquire a Memory Company Like SanDisk”

Professor Jung-Ho Kim, known as the “father of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)” and a professor in the Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering at KAIST, appeared in a YouTube video and made a bold claim — that Nvidia could acquire a memory company such as SanDisk or Micron.

(He previously recommended buying SK hynix stock back in 2017.)

1. Shift of Market Power: From GPU to Memory

Kim argues that as the AI era unfolds, the driving force of the stock market is shifting from GPU (Graphics Processing Units) to memory.

If the GPU is the castella cake, memory is the whipped cream — to improve AI performance, memory upgrades and capacity expansion are essential.

2. Memory Determines AI Speed

The speed at which generative AI produces words in response to prompts is determined by memory, and this is even more critical during inference than during training.

3. Explosive Memory Pressure

As AI model sizes (parameters), user counts, and data types (text → image → video) grow exponentially, the demand pressure on memory capacity is reaching its peak.

4. From HBM to HBF Era

The professor predicts that the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) era is ending, and the HBF (High Bandwidth Flash) era is about to begin — which will have an even greater impact on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix stock prices in the future.

5. What Is HBF?

The “F” in HBF stands for Flash Memory.

HBF will serve as the device that stores AI’s core knowledge — the “encrypted books” or priors, also known as KV (Key-Value) caches.

6. Characteristics of Priors

These “encrypted books” require massive capacity and are read-intensive (much more reading than writing).

Compared with HBM (~100GB beside the GPU), stacking the same 16 layers of HBF provides roughly 10 times the capacity.

7. Structure of HBF
HBF is built by stacking NAND Flash, just as HBM stacks DRAM.

Since NAND already uses 3D stacking technologies (128 layers, 256 layers, etc.), stacking 16 layers of HBF could yield 2,000–3,000 total layers.

8. Hierarchical Memory Structure in AI Computing

SRAM (inside GPU): fastest, smallest capacity.
HBM (bookshelf beside desk): used for encoder/decoder computation, fast read/write.

HBF (basement library): used for inference, refilling HBM when needed — acts as first-level backup.

Network storage (public library): vast memory storage connected via optical networks.

9. Technical Differences: DRAM vs NAND
DRAM (HBM) leaks charge, requiring refresh cycles, but supports unlimited reads/writes.

NAND Flash (HBF) traps electrons like a prison, retaining data without refresh, but uses tunneling during writes, damaging cell walls over time — limiting its endurance to about 100,000 cycles.

10. Commercialization Timeline
HBF products are expected to launch around 2027–2028.

11. Competitive Landscape
Companies experienced in stacking memory — such as SK hynix and Samsung Electronics — are best positioned to develop HBF.
Unlike HBM, where SK hynix led, the NAND Flash market (Samsung ~30%, SK hynix ~20%) creates a more level playing field, meaning both firms will compete on equal footing.

Kim also forecasts that AI memory bandwidth and capacity requirements will double every two years, implying a 1,000× increase over 20 years, which could expand revenues from hundreds of billions to tens of trillions of dollars.

12. Nvidia’s Potential Strategy
He argues that Nvidia, in its effort to reduce dependence on external suppliers (Samsung, SK hynix), may avoid using both HBM and HBF simultaneously — possibly shifting entirely to HBF — and could therefore acquire a memory company such as Micron or SanDisk.

13. The Future Is Memory

With GPU performance growth stagnating (the slowdown of Moore’s Law), innovation in memory technologies like HBM and HBF will drive further AI computing advancements.

He concludes that this signals the arrival of a “Memory Era”, where memory companies will power the next wave of stock market gains.

---

Full video(in Korean):

https://t.co/oBiJYG7Nkq


Nvidia… may… acquire a memory company such as Micron or SanDisk


the AI power semiconductor market is mainly shared by three players: Infineon, and Renesas and Monolithic Power... the technological leaders have already moved to secure an early lead

Summary: Shares Barclays thesis: Infineon among top beneficiaries of 10x power semiconductor content growth per rack as NVIDIA's 800V architecture reshapes the market from 2027.

Why are power semiconductors the future? Barclays:

The power consumption of AI chips is rising rapidly. NVIDIA’s current Blackwell-generation GPU chips have already reached around 1.2 kW, and the power consumption of GB200 rack-level servers is about 120 kW.

Even more striking is the Rubin Ultra chip scheduled for release in 2027. The power consumption of this GPU is expected to reach three times that of Blackwell, and the power consumption per server rack will rise to around 600 kW. By the time of the Feynman architecture, power is expected to increase by another 1.5 times, reaching more than eight times the current Blackwell level, with rack-level server power consumption likely to hit the megawatt (1 MW) range.

To address this issue, NVIDIA has announced a new power system called “Kyber,” which adopts an 800 V architecture. This will significantly increase the content of power semiconductors, and all major power semiconductor manufacturers are now competing to enter this supply chain.

Power semiconductor content to grow 10x, reaching $140,000 per rack

The report expects GPU power demand to grow about fivefold over the next few years, while rack power demand will grow tenfold, with 1 MW-per-rack demand already coming into view.

Currently, the value of power semiconductors in a single rack is around $12,000–$15,000. Taking into account the reference design and the increase in power demand, the report projects that by 2027, the power semiconductor content (on a BoM basis) will grow more than sixfold, and by 2029 it will increase by more than another 50%, reaching about $140,000 per rack (at today’s prices).

What is noteworthy is that even under the most optimistic assumptions, power semiconductors still account for less than 1% of total rack spending. This clearly illustrates how much “leverage” power semiconductors have within the overall system.

800 V architecture reshapes the power semiconductor market landscape

The traditional 54 V power delivery architecture scales poorly once rack power demand exceeds 200 kW. NVIDIA’s proposed 800 V data center architecture is a fundamentally different approach that overturns this limitation.

In the new architecture, it is no longer a matter of converting 54 V DC down to 1 V, but implementing a large-step conversion from 800 V down to 1 V. This change will significantly reduce, or in some cases entirely replace, the role of PSUs (power supply units) in data centers. As a result, it can save space, while also reducing power loss and copper usage.

This new architecture is expected to begin deployment from 2027, coinciding with the launch timing of NVIDIA’s Rubin Ultra chips.

New opportunities for wide-bandgap semiconductors, with companies like Infineon set to benefit

The report points out that in recent years, silicon carbide (SiC) has struggled due to oversupply, while gallium nitride (GaN) has been mostly confined to consumer applications. However, the surge in AI power demand is creating major new opportunities for both of these materials.

In future server architectures, GaN could account for up to 30% of the bill of materials (BoM), while SiC is expected to account for around 10–15%.

A hundred-billion-dollar-scale market is taking shape, with the competitive landscape likely to be reshaped

The report estimates that if AI data center capacity increases by around 16 GW every month, the annual market size for power semiconductors will reach 1.4–8.5 billion dollars. This projection is based on the assumption that all newly added capacity adopts the new 800 V architecture.

At present, the AI power semiconductor market is mainly shared by three players: Infineon, and Renesas and Monolithic Power, which are outside the coverage of this report. However, NVIDIA has already released a long list of potential suppliers for its 800 V architecture, with a total of 14 companies named as potential vendors.

As the 800 V data center era begins in earnest, competition among power semiconductor suppliers is expected to intensify. The report assumes that, over the forecast period, AI power semiconductor prices will see a low- to mid-single-digit annual decline.

This “energy efficiency revolution” triggered by AI compute demand is reshaping the structure of the power semiconductor industry. As the 800 V architecture is gradually commercialized from 2027 onward, a hundred-billion-dollar-scale new market is quietly taking shape, and the technological leaders have already moved to secure an early lead.


the most severe, panic-level, large-scale shortage in the history of memory is approaching, and the NAND Flash supply shortfall is expected to exceed 80%

Summary: Panic-level NAND/DRAM/HBM shortage approaching with 70-80% supply gap persisting through 2026+, bullish on memory broadly — NAND, HBM3E, SSDs, HDDs all in simultaneous shortage driven by AI inference surge.

Silicon Motion Technology listed on Nasdaq as SIMO

(Must read) Gou Jiazhang of Silicon Motion (慧榮): The most severe, panic-level, large-scale shortage in the history of memory is approaching, and the NAND Flash supply shortfall is expected to exceed 80%.

Gou Jiazhang of Silicon Motion (慧榮) stated that this time, all types of memory—DRAM, NAND, SSD, and HDD—are, for the first time ever, experiencing a simultaneous, large-scale shortage. The growth of AI inference has already surpassed AI training, and inference drives demand for memory—especially high-capacity SSDs—much more strongly. He asserted that the current shortage is nearing a “panic” level and that the supply shortfall will not be resolved throughout 2026. He said this, too, is a conservative view, and that if this trend continues, smaller, less competitive firms could face an existential crisis.

AI inference is driving a surge in HBM3E demand

Sharing takeaways from a recent business trip to Korea, Gou said customers kept coming to discuss only capacity and never price; the mood was that simply getting a capacity allocation would be fortunate. He said HBM demand is very strong, and since AI inference demand emerged, HBM3E demand has expanded. It is not only NVIDIA’s GPUs that require HBM3E; all cloud providers’ in-house ASICs also need HBM3E. At present, Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are prioritizing capacity allocation to HBM and DDR5. From a capacity-consumption perspective, each unit of HBM requires roughly three times the number of wafers compared with DDR5. As a result, HBM is in short supply now—and so is DDR5.

The HDD shortage is shifting demand en masse to the NAND industry

In the China market, starting from the second quarter of this year, SSD demand has rapidly stepped up from the past 16TB/32TB to 64TB/128TB. Looking closely at the cause, because sufficient HDD volumes could not be secured, high-capacity SSDs were purchased as substitutes. Gou also analyzed that, thanks to strong AI inference demand, even if you add up all NAND Flash capacity worldwide, it still cannot meet even one-tenth of data centers’ annual warm-data demand. Therefore, over the next 10 years it will be impossible for SSDs to replace HDDs. He added that timing is the only question.

Tracing the current HDD shortage back, during the pandemic the blow from excessive inventories made HDD makers’ business models more conservative, shifting them to expand capacity only to the extent of the orders they received. This has made it difficult to absorb the sudden volume surge from the AI boom all at once. On top of this, the North American hyperscalers’ demand for ultra-high-capacity SSDs has increased to an even more astonishing level. The industry must wait for NAND technology to transition from TLC to QLC; at the earliest, in 2027 the global bit output of QLC may overtake that of TLC NAND.

The NAND shortage could trigger a reshuffle of the global smartphone market

Apple has removed the 128GB model in the iPhone 17 and pushed capacity straight up to 2TB, and Samsung is expected to follow. For 2026, overall smartphone bit growth is forecast at about 32%. In the context of a NAND Flash shortage, major vendors will defend premium smartphones from impact, but low-end models may see capacity cut. A recent example is smartphone storage in Africa and Southeast Asia falling from 128GB to 64GB.

The NAND Flash shortage will also affect the competitive landscape of the global smartphone market. Apple need not worry about shortages, and Samsung can be supported by its in-house NAND. The focus should be on branded smartphones in the China-based Android camp. Although the local NAND giant YMTC長江存儲 is actively expanding, it is estimated it can meet only 50% of local vendors’ demand. Recently, Xiaomi announced price hikes for new models citing rising memory prices. Going forward, whether smartphone vendors can secure sufficient NAND chips—and what choices they make between specifications and cost/selling price—will determine how market shares shift.

Questions about an AI bubble

Gou stated that concerns about an AI bubble will not materialize in the short term. From cloud AI to edge AI, inference consumes memory in very large quantities. The supply gap in the NAND market is 70%–80%, already at a panic-level shortage. Some overbooking naturally exists, but the key is how the major memory makers allocate and plan capacity. Including customer groups such as cloud, smartphones, autos, and PCs, many Chinese automakers still have not recognized the severity of the shortage. Moreover, all capacity cannot be diverted solely to cloud providers; doing so would lead to fragmentation of the technology industry, which is undesirable.


HBM demand is very strong, and since AI inference demand emerged, HBM3E demand has expanded


Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron are prioritizing capacity allocation to HBM and DDR5


HDD shortage is shifting demand en masse to the NAND industry


HDD makers' business models more conservative, shifting them to expand capacity only to the extent of the orders they received

Seagate Technology listed on Nasdaq as STX


Summary: Relays/endorses Goldman MD Molavi's bullish thesis: don't fight the AI capex wave, rate cuts incoming, tech-driven bull intact; gold and BTC outperforming in real terms.

“Pessimists sound smart, but optimists make money.”

“The market may be noisy, but the real rewards go to the optimists.”

Bobby Molavi, Managing Director and veteran trader at Goldman Sachs, recently wrote these words.
He emphasized, “There are indeed signs of a bubble in the market, but the main pillars supporting this long bull run—especially the massive capital expenditure boom triggered by AI—are crystal clear.”

Molavi warned, “Until the long-term AI narrative becomes reality, fighting against that enormous flow of capital is futile.”
In other words, what investors need now is “to see the signals, ignore the noise, and recognize that the success or failure of AI won’t be determined in the short term.”

It is precisely these optimists who are crushing the pessimists in today’s “tech-driven super-bull market.”

⸻

■ U.S. Stock Market: Staying Above the 50-Day Moving Average for Over 100 Days

Recently, U.S. equities have shown astonishing resilience.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have remained above their 50-day moving averages for more than 100 trading days, setting fresh all-time highs.

Investor enthusiasm has reached extreme levels:

    • Retail investors: Net buyers for 21 of the past 24 weeks
    • ETFs: Inflows on 183 of the last 185 trading days
    • Call-option volume: Record-breaking 40 million contracts in a single day

Particularly, “heavily shorted stocks” and “unprofitable tech names” have surged, while future-theme sectors—nuclear energy, quantum tech, drones, AI—continue to gain strong momentum.

Goldman Sachs’ High/Low Short Interest Index (GSPUWSHI) recorded the most powerful short-covering rally since the meme-stock frenzy of 2021.

■ The AI Debate Is Still “Ongoing”… But Capital Has Already Moved

The debate over whether AI is a “revolution” or a “bubble” may persist for several quarters—or even longer.
However, Molavi points out, “What matters more than the debate is where the money is actually going.”

Citing one study, he noted:

“By 2029, cumulative capital expenditures by hyperscale cloud companies are projected to reach $2.8 trillion,
while total global CAPEX is expected to hit $5.5 trillion.”

Molavi likened this flow of capital to “a massive oil tanker—once it starts moving, it takes a long time to stop or change course.”
Thus, short-term corrections of one or two quarters are meaningless within a five-year investment cycle.

He concluded, “Just as the old saying went ‘Don’t fight the Fed,’ the new mantra is now ‘Don’t fight the CAPEX.’”

⸻

■ Three Tailwinds: Rates, Earnings, and Labor-Market Shifts

Beyond AI, Molavi highlighted three other tailwinds sustaining the market:

1. Interest Rates:
He sees a rate-cut scenario as “virtually certain.” Whether driven by cooling inflation, slowing growth, or political pressure, lower rates would inject fresh liquidity into asset markets.

2. Corporate Earnings:
AI not only boosts margins through productivity and cost savings, but also compels companies to prove efficiency simply by claiming AI adoption—forcing leaner cost structures.

3. Employment:
While AI-driven efficiency may lift unemployment, this does not signal economic weakness.
Instead, it represents a re-pricing of the market around productivity, as investors increasingly value output over headcount.

⸻

■ The Market Is Already in “Party Mode”

Market exuberance has reached historical extremes.
According to Goldman Sachs, average daily call-option volume over the past 20 days has hit 40 million, more than double three years ago.

• On certain days, calls made up 65% of all option trades.

• Even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new highs, 57% and 51% of their constituents, respectively, fell.

In short, a handful of mega-cap tech stocks are driving the market.
Tech and tech-related equities now account for 56% of total U.S. market capitalization, while defensive sectors have fallen to a record-low 16% share.

Molavi captured the moment vividly:

“It’s like a party at two in the morning.
Nobody thinks it’s time to go home.
But the hangover—though delayed—always comes.”

⸻

■ “Fake Prosperity” Under a Weak Dollar: What Should Assets Be Measured In?

Molavi offered another provocative angle:
“This bull market may not be pure price appreciation—it could simply be the reflection of fiat-currency debasement.”

Since the pandemic (in USD terms):
    • Nasdaq +165%
    • S&P 500 +102%
    • In gold terms:
    • Nasdaq +7%
    • S&P 500 –18%
    • In Bitcoin terms:
    • Nasdaq –78%
    • S&P 500 –84%

In other words, the rally measured in dollars may be an illusion born of currency weakness, while real value has appreciated far more in non-dollar assets such as gold and Bitcoin.

Molavi concluded:

“When assessing investment returns,
the unit of account matters more than ever.
That’s why alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold
are once again back in focus.”


optimists make money… the main pillars supporting this long bull run—especially the massive capital expenditure boom triggered by AI—are crystal clear


tech and tech-related equities now account for 56% of total U.S. market capitalization… future-theme sectors—nuclear energy, quantum tech, drones, AI—continue to gain strong momentum


Summary: Memory sector safe through 2026 but faces downturn from H1 2027 as new capacity from Micron Idaho and SK Hynix Yongin comes online; chaebol CAPEX behavior makes cycle end inevitable.

Memory semiconductor basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

Thought: The end of the memory supercycle is inevitable.

As @evrgn11112231 correctly pointed out, for the cycle to be sustained, the majority of excess cash in an upturn must be returned via dividends/buybacks, thereby suppressing excessive reinvestment into WFE/greenfield.

However, after thinking it through, I’ve concluded that it will be difficult to prevent the enormous profits in this supercycle from being reinvested into WFE.

Let me explain why.

Among the Big Three in memory, Samsung and SK hynix are owned by Korean chaebol.

Do you know what characterizes Korean chaebol? Strong leadership.

Put bluntly, it means they can control companies with small equity stakes and make unilateral decisions without being beholden to shareholders.

I believe this helped Korea establish a solid position in the memory semiconductor industry, but conversely, I want to point out that it has trapped the memory industry in the swamp of an eternal cycle.

In other words, even when they make a lot during an upturn, chaebol-owned semiconductor companies do not pay additional dividends or conduct share buybacks.

Instead, based on the enormous money earned in the upturn, they have executed massive CAPEX—and will continue to do so.

This inevitably leads to oversupply and brings about a downturn.

Even if Micron tries to manage for profitability on its own, if the two chaebol expand capacity with huge sums, Micron will also have no choice but to pour in huge sums and expand capacity. You can’t walk when everyone else is running.

In the end, memory falls back into a slump.

That said, as I’ve said before, 2026 should be safe. There are no cleanrooms available to expand capacity immediately, so fabs have to be built.

However, from the first half of 2027, when Micron’s Idaho and SK hynix’s Yongin come online, we may have to worry about a memory downturn.

Also for “this time to be different” you aren’t just making a bet on capacity discipline IMO, but rather also what happens to pricing and industry returns when demand inevitably softens and producers are sitting on excess inventory and underutilized fabs.

What does “this time is


from the first half of 2027, when Micron's Idaho and SK hynix's Yongin come online, we may have to worry about a memory downturn


TSMC is once again accelerating CoWoS capacity expansion... CoWoS output in 2026 is projected to grow 56% YoY

Summary: JPM raises CoWoS capacity estimates; demand revisions up for NVDA, Broadcom, AMD; TSMC output +56% YoY in 2026 with supply remaining structurally tight, benefiting OSATs.

CoWoS capacity significantly revised up; AI packaging to remain tight in 2026–27
JPM (G. Hariharan, 25/11/13)

JPM notes that TSMC is once again accelerating CoWoS capacity expansion, and now expects capacity to reach 105k wafers per month by end-2026 (vs. the previous estimate of 95k wpm), mainly due to the earlier-than-expected ramp of the AP8 fab and surging demand from NVDA and ASIC customers. Capacity is expected to further rise to 141k wafers/month in 2027, while non-TSMC capacity will begin to contribute after 2H26, accounting for 9%/11% of total capacity in 2026/27, respectively. Driven by strong demand, TSMC’s CoWoS output in 2026 is projected to grow 56% YoY, but overall supply will remain structurally tight.

Nvidia: GB300 demand has been revised up meaningfully in recent months, pushing up its 2026 CoWoS usage to 700k wafers. Rubin will start to ramp from 2Q26, with a smooth volume ramp expected in 2H26; its package area will be 50–60% larger than Blackwell, reducing the number of dies that can be cut from a single CoWoS wafer to 9–10. As Rubin CPX does not use HBM, it is more likely to adopt FCBGA rather than the CoWoS-S approach suggested in some market rumors.

Broadcom: Demand has likewise been continuously revised up, with its 2026 requirement now expected at 20k wafers, mainly driven by Google TPU v6p/v7p, Anthropic orders, and the migration of Tomahawk 6 to CoWoS-S. MediaTek’s TPU demand in 2027 is also projected to be as high as 40k wafers.

AMD: Supported by strong demand for MI450 and the Venice CPU, its 2026 usage has been revised up from 80k to 90k wafers, but there is still potential delay risk as production is concentrated in 2H26.

AWS: Trainium 3 demand is stable, with around 80k wafers required in 2026.

JPM emphasizes that TSMC is becoming more stringent in approving new projects, and from 2026 roughly 70% of back-end steps for CoWoS-L will be outsourced to ASE/SPIL. It is also accelerating the outsourcing of probe testing to Ardentec, ASE and Kyec; from 2027 onward, some AI accelerator projects will be further outsourced to OSATs.

SoIC capacity is also being brought forward (22k/30k wafers in 2026/27) to meet AMD and Apple demand, with 2027–28 set to mark the period when 2nm ASICs are widely adopted. To address demand for larger packages, TSMC is actively pushing ahead with its CoPoS process on 310 × 310mm glass panels, with mass production expected in 2028, while CoWoP, given its technical difficulty, is still more likely to exist as a lower-cost, non-leading-edge solution.

WMCM is expected to be first adopted by the iPhone A20 Pro in 2026, and then gradually extended to the full iPhone/iPad/MacBook lineup, with potential future outsourcing to SPIL and Amkor.


GB300 demand has been revised up meaningfully in recent months, pushing up its 2026 CoWoS usage to 700k wafers


Demand has likewise been continuously revised up, with its 2026 requirement now expected at 20k wafers


its 2026 usage has been revised up from 80k to 90k wafers


roughly 70% of back-end steps for CoWoS-L will be outsourced to ASE/SPIL


Summary: Commodity DRAM prices stay elevated through 2026: HBM supply crunch limits overall DRAM supply even if general-purpose server demand cools.

Commodity DRAM basket: Micron, Nanya, Winbond

The strength of commodity DRAM this year can literally be explained by the replacement cycle of general-purpose servers.

Driven by the mindset of "Let's replace the general-purpose servers that are due for a refresh while we're aggressively building out AI servers," commodity DRAM sales have been strong. (Amazon played a major role in this.)

This is data from Goldman Sachs. As you can see, there is significant growth in the TAM for general-purpose servers in 2025 compared to 2024.

Then, you might ask this question:

"Looking at this data, the growth of general-purpose servers appears to be slowing down again. Won't the current surge in commodity DRAM prices come to an end soon?"

That is a great question. However, I would like to confidently tell you: No.

The reason is singular: even if the demand for general-purpose servers remains at current levels, the overall DRAM supply is not increasing.

The shortage of HBM supply remains persistent, and cleanroom space is scarce.

Structurally, it is difficult for supply to increase significantly until the second quarter of 2027.

Even taking a conservative view, I want to state that it is difficult to foresee a decline in commodity DRAM prices within 2026.


Summary: Shares Citi Buy reiteration on NVDA with PT raised to $220, ahead of Nov 19 earnings beat-and-raise call.

More and more of the sell side is shelving the “AI capex peaks in 2027” thesis and turning bullish on AI again.

Is that a good sign?

A true bubble is when everyone is cheering—unlike now, when a sizable number of people are still pessimistic. https://t.co/gRykazZ1UE

Citi: Maintains Buy on NVIDIA, raises target price from $210 to $220

Citi presented a “30-day short-term bullish” view on NVIDIA, betting that the earnings scheduled to be announced on November 19 will deliver a “beat and raise” (revenue surprise and guidance increase). https://t.co/VDe3WCkZyy


Summary: BofA reaffirms AI/DRAM/HBM super-cycle; key longs SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron on HBM/DDR5 mix; legacy DRAM names also benefit from price rebound through 2026.

Confirmation of Strong Memory Market: Reaffirming an AI·DRAM·HBM-Driven Super-Boom Cycle (BofA)

1. Industry Overview

• All three experts — Nanya Tech CEO, an AI semiconductor specialist, and a TrendForce analyst — expressed a bullish view on the market outlook based on improving prices and supply–demand dynamics.
• The global memory market is experiencing structural demand expansion centered on AI servers, which aligns with BofA’s super-cycle thesis.
• In particular, TrendForce significantly raised its forecast for DRAM and NAND price increases compared to prior estimates, projecting that demand will far exceed supply even in 2026.

2. TrendForce View

• 4Q25 DRAM +30–35% (previous +18–23%), NAND +25–30% (previous +20–25%) — upward revision.
• 1Q26 DRAM +20–25% (previous +8–13%), NAND +20–25% (previous +18–23%).
• The 2026 supply-demand sufficiency ratio is expected to remain low — demand far stronger than supply.
• DRAM makers are intentionally slowing shipments and building inventory strategically to induce higher selling prices later.
• Rising memory prices may lead to higher end-product prices in 2026, including notebooks and smartphones.
• Despite the 50–60% price premium of HBM4, the average HBM ASP in 2026 is still expected to decline about 10% YoY (although a shift from HBM to DDR5 could cause price increases).

3. Nanya Tech View

• Price uptrend expected to continue in 4Q; October revenue approached the peaks of 2018/2021.
• DDR5-to-DDR4 production conversion is relatively easy, enabling flexible response to customer demand.
• New fab expansions planned for 2026 will realistically only begin in 2H27, meaning bit growth in 2026 will be virtually flat.
• Pricing negotiations are shifting from quarterly to monthly, reflecting a supplier-dominant market.
• Channel inventory remains low, leaving room for further price increases.

4. AI Semiconductor Expert Robert Castellano’s View

• OpenAI’s massive AI infrastructure investment is driving structural demand for DRAM/HBM.
• OpenAI does not own its own datacenters; CapEx expansion is carried out through partners (cloud providers, semiconductor companies, building leases) — approximately USD 1.4 trillion commitment over 8 years.
• OpenAI’s annualized revenue is growing to around USD 28 billion.
• U.S. big tech’s AI server chips (GPU+HBM) represent a shift toward “high-value, high-density memory,” unlike the dot-com/cloud bubbles of the past.
• AI data center and sovereign AI infrastructure investment is expected to deepen HBM supply shortages.
• Memory makers, unlike in past cycles, are pursuing “profit-centric” strategies and refraining from aggressive capacity expansions; simultaneous bottlenecks in HBM and DDR5 are tightening overall DRAM supply.

5. Investment Implications

• AI-driven demand for DRAM/HBM is expected to maintain structural growth for the next 1–2 years.
• Supply increase remains limited, and memory makers are shifting toward price-focused profit optimization.
• During the HBM4 transition period (2026–27), DDR5 production capacity is likely to shrink, supporting continued strength in commodity DRAM pricing.
• Key beneficiaries: SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, Micron (HBM supply expansion, DDR5/HBM mix improvement).
• Legacy DRAM makers (Nanya, Winbond, etc.) may also benefit from short-term price rebound.
• The likelihood of a memory super-cycle through 2026 is strengthening, with the industry entering a high-profit phase supported by prolonged AI CapEx.


Legacy DRAM makers (Nanya, Winbond, etc.) may also benefit from short-term price rebound

Nanya Technology Corp listed on TWSE as 2408.TW


Winbond Electronics listed on TWSE as 2344.TW


The likelihood of a memory super-cycle through 2026 is strengthening, with the industry entering a high-profit phase supported by prolonged AI CapEx

DRAM sector basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix


NVIDIA remains our Top Pick and continues to offer the greatest upside potential. Accordingly, we raise our price target from $240 to $300. This implies more than 60% near-term upside

Summary: Cantor Fitzgerald raises NVDA PT to $300 (27x 2027E EPS $11); Top Pick with 60%+ upside, EPS estimates 50% above consensus through 2027.

Cantor Fitzgerald) NVIDIA: Raises Target Price to $300 Amid Accelerating AI Infrastructure Growth

“Last week, we hosted an investor meeting in New York with NVIDIA’s senior management, including CEO Jensen Huang, CFO Colette Kress, IR head Toshiya Hari, and other executives. Compared to a year ago, much has changed—exponentially. As expected, Jensen Huang was highly optimistic, and with good reason. We are still in the early innings of a multi-trillion-dollar AI infrastructure build-out. Even just among hyperscalers, we see substantial visibility into hundreds of billions of dollars of demand over the next several years—not to mention other growth engines such as neo-cloud, enterprise AI, and physical AI. Thus, this is not a bubble; we are at the beginning of this investment cycle.”

“One particularly notable point from the meeting was the new partnership with OpenAI, through which NVIDIA aims to help build OpenAI into a self-hosted hyperscaler. The core of this vision is to eliminate ‘margin stacking’ by server ODMs (original design manufacturers) and CSPs (cloud service providers), thereby narrowing the cost gap between NVIDIA GPUs and ASICs to roughly 15% on average. This is a true win-win for both parties and could put further pressure on the ASIC market. With full-stack solutions like CUDA-X, NVIDIA continues its annual cycle of ‘Extreme Co-Design,’ enabling end-to-end optimization of the entire AI infrastructure (nobody just wants to buy chips—they want large-scale AI deployments). Simply put, Jensen Huang and his team are more focused, more competitive, and running harder than ever before—to ‘produce results,’ as he puts it. We find it hard to envision a scenario where NVIDIA fails to capture at least 75% of the AI accelerator market in the long term. After three days of meetings, our conviction in the growth of AI infrastructure and NVIDIA’s share into the 2030s has only strengthened.”

“We continue to believe that achieving EPS of $8 by 2026 (vs. consensus of $6.26) is highly attainable, followed by $11 in 2027 (vs. consensus of $7.36). Given that long-term consensus estimates may still be 50% too low, NVIDIA remains our Top Pick and continues to offer the greatest upside potential. Accordingly, we raise our price target from $240 (based on 30× 2026E EPS of $8) to $300 (based on 27× 2027E EPS of $11). This implies more than 60% near-term upside, with even greater long-term potential as the company pursues its ambitious goal of $50 EPS by 2030 amid a $3–4 trillion AI infrastructure market. To borrow from the Boss—Bruce Springsteen—baby, NVIDIA was ‘Born to Run’… and it’s still running.”

$NVDA


Major win for AMD... the deal still serves as strong validation of AMD's data-center AI roadmap... AMD believes this project provides clear visibility toward achieving its initial $10 billion annual AI revenue target in 2027 and potentially exceeding $100 billion in the following years

Summary: Shares Wolfe Research's bullish AMD analysis: 6GW OpenAI deal validates AI roadmap, $10B-$15B per GW revenue, $1.25-$1.70 EPS accretion from first tranche alone.

Wolfe Research) AMD: OpenAI to Deploy 6GW of AMD GPUs

This morning, AMD announced a 6-gigawatt (GW) GPU supply agreement with OpenAI, spanning the next five years. According to AMD, every 1GW deployment represents “significant double-digit billions” in revenue. The first batch is expected to begin in the second half of 2026, following the mid-2026 launch of the MI450-Helios rack. AMD believes this project provides clear visibility toward achieving its initial $10 billion annual AI revenue target in 2027 and potentially exceeding $100 billion in the following years. The company noted that gross margins (GM) for this business will be consistent with previous guidance — slightly below the corporate average — but emphasized that the deal will generate meaningful operating leverage and EPS accretion.

⸻

Key Takeaways

● Major win for AMD.
The first 1GW batch begins deployment in late 2026. Although the MI450 specifications are not fully disclosed, assuming similar power consumption to NVIDIA’s VR200 and rack pricing of roughly $2 million–$3 million (vs $3 million for Blackwell and $4 million for Rubin), the first 1GW could yield $10 billion–$15 billion in revenue. This figure exceeds AMD’s expected 2025 data-center AI revenue of roughly $6.5 billion, making the contract highly significant. AMD has guided for “tens of billions” in data-center AI revenue by 2027. Accounting for warrant dilution and assuming margins near the corporate operating margin (OM), Wolfe estimates incremental EPS of $1.25–$1.70 per share from the first 1GW tranche alone.

● Funding mechanism raises mild concerns.
As part of the deal, AMD will issue stock warrants to OpenAI, exercisable in tranches tied to GPU deployment volume. Wolfe views this as a form of equity-financed transaction — in contrast to NVIDIA’s prior OpenAI partnership, where NVIDIA indirectly helped fund OpenAI’s hardware purchases. Assuming the first tranche equals 26.7 million shares (one-sixth of total warrants), this represents a $6 billion transfer of value to OpenAI at current share prices, which OpenAI could liquidate to pay for GPU purchases.

● Validates AMD as a key AI player.
The 6GW agreement follows NVIDIA’s reported 10GW OpenAI contract and Broadcom’s $10 billion custom-chip deal disclosed in its September earnings (believed also linked to OpenAI). Although the unique financing structure likely influenced the award, the deal still serves as strong validation of AMD’s data-center AI roadmap — OpenAI would not have signed if AMD’s solution were unproven.

● Rack-level assumptions.
While MI450 specs and pricing remain undisclosed, Wolfe assumes the following based on NVIDIA’s VR200: 1.8 kW per GPU, 72 GPUs per rack, and 200 kW per rack including overhead. That implies ~5,000 racks per GW. Using a $2 million–$3 million rack price (vs $3 million for GB200, $4 million for VR200), AMD would generate $10 billion–$15 billion per GW — broadly consistent with AMD’s own “significant double-digit billions” comment.

● Warrants.
AMD will issue up to 160 million common-stock warrants to OpenAI, vesting over time as OpenAI scales AMD deployments to 6GW. The first tranche vests with the initial 1GW MI450 rollout; later tranches vest as deployments expand and specific technical/commercial milestones are achieved. Vesting is also tied to AMD share-price targets, with the final tranche activating at $600 per share. Assuming proportional allocation, the first tranche equals 26.7 million shares worth $5.8 billion — a material portion of GPU contract value.

● EPS impact.
After factoring in dilution from 26.7 million additional shares and assuming $10 billion–$15 billion incremental revenue at a 25% operating margin, Wolfe estimates $2.2 billion–$2.8 billion in incremental net income — translating to $1.25–$1.70 of annualized EPS accretion from the first 1GW segment.

$AMD


Broadcom's custom ASIC project for OpenAI is expected to enter small-scale production between late 2026 and early 2027

Summary: Positive views on Phison (QLC NAND adoption), Broadcom (OpenAI ASIC ramp), and Alchip (Trainium3 no cuts).

• Meta:
Meta plans to prioritize QLC NAND adoption in its data centers to reduce costs.
As a result, analysts reaffirmed a positive view on Phison (8299).

• ASIC Segment:
Broadcom’s custom ASIC project for OpenAI is expected to enter small-scale production between late 2026 and early 2027.

• AWS Trainium3:
There are no signs of production cuts.
Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Alchip (3661).

早安！10/21 外電綜合整理

- OCP大會：
美系大行整理此次大會的四大重點為：AMD 的 Helios 機櫃（ORW）、800V 直流電架構、Google Deschutes 2MW 冷卻配電單元（CDU）以及 ESUN 網路。

* Helios 機櫃採用雙寬設計（2T），明年下半年開始出貨。其中，Meta 與 AMD


Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Alchip (3661)


Summary: Shares/endorses Goldman Sachs doubling SanDisk PT to $280, bullish on NAND supply shortage persisting through 2026 + AI server demand, EPS estimates up 79%.

Goldman Sachs has doubled its target price for SanDisk, citing strong confidence that the ongoing NAND supply shortage will significantly drive pricing power and profit growth.

The firm raised its target price to $280 and assessed that the supply shortage in the NAND flash memory market will persist through 2026. This environment grants manufacturers substantial pricing power, which is expected to translate directly into soaring profit margins.

As a result, Goldman Sachs has revised its EPS forecasts for 2025–2027 upward by an average of 79%.

The key driver is the tightening of production capacity due to surging demand for AI servers. Goldman Sachs pointed out that market participants have not yet fully priced in the substantial earnings leverage embedded in this supercycle.

$SNDK

高盛直接將 SanDisk 目標價翻倍！NAND 供不應求將極大推動定價能力和利潤率增長

高盛將SanDisk目標價上調，稱 NAND 快閃記憶體市場供不應求將持續至 2026 年，賦予製造商強大定價權，並最終體現在利潤率的飆升上，將 2025-2027 年 EPS 預測平均上調 79%，AI


I'm positive on it through the second quarter of 2026.

Summary: Bullish on MU (and Samsung) through Q2 2026 on Blackwell/Rubin demand and consumer business exit.

@EdwardDiGi I’m positive on it through the second quarter of 2026.

@jukan05 Yeah that seems the sentiment feeling. But as nobody has modelled Blackwell and Rubin demand, plus H200 and MU and Samsung exiting consumer business

I mean, all this is not mega bullish for 2026?


the gross profit margins of Samsung's memory division and SK hynix in Q4 this year are expected to be around 63–67% respectively, surpassing TSMC

Summary: Memory semis entering a golden age: Samsung, Hynix, and Micron gross margins set to surpass TSMC in Q4/Q1, driven by AI inference demand surge.

Memory semiconductors to overtake TSMC in profits

The profitability of Samsung Electronics’ memory division and SK hynix this year in the fourth quarter will overtake Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s No. 1 foundry (contract chipmaker). It will be the first time in seven years—since the fourth quarter of 2018—that memory profitability surpasses foundry profitability. As the center of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry shifts from GPU-led “training” to “inference,” where storing data and retrieving it whenever needed becomes crucial, memory demand is surging. Evaluations are emerging that a full-fledged “memory-centric” era—where high-performance DRAM and NAND flash determine the pace of AI advancement—has begun.

According to the semiconductor and investment industries on the 21st, the gross profit margins of Samsung’s memory division and SK hynix in Q4 this year are expected to be around 63–67% respectively, surpassing TSMC (company’s official guidance: 60%). Gross profit margin, calculated by dividing gross profit (revenue − cost) by revenue, is considered a key profitability indicator. Micron, the No. 3 memory company in the U.S., officially announced on the 17th that its gross profit margin of 56% in fiscal 2026 first quarter (Sep–Nov) will jump to 67% in the second quarter (Dec–Feb next year). This means that in the first quarter of next year, Micron, too, will surpass TSMC in profitability.

Over the past two to three years, TSMC has taken charge of manufacturing AI accelerators for Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and others by leveraging cutting-edge processes at 3 nanometers (nm; 1 nm = one-billionth of a meter) and below, as well as state-of-the-art packaging. As AI accelerators determined AI training performance, TSMC became a main protagonist of the AI semiconductor era alongside Nvidia, which designs GPUs.

The era of AI inference brings a “golden age of memory” … “$440 billion market next year” Memory gross profit margins surpass
foundry

“An ‘Nvidia moment’ (a moment when a specific company reshapes the industry framework, like Nvidia leading the AI semiconductor revolution) has begun for the memory semiconductor industry.”

After Micron, the world’s third-largest memory semiconductor company, presented “67%” as its gross profit margin (gross profit ÷ revenue) forecast for fiscal 2026 second quarter (Dec–Feb next year) on the 17th, such reactions emerged in the semiconductor industry. It was forecasting a profit margin comparable to Nvidia (72%), the “lead actor,” by surpassing TSMC (60%), despite having been seen as merely a “supporting actor” in AI. A semiconductor industry official said, “A ‘memory-centric’ era in which memory determines the pace of AI industry development is opening in earnest.”

---

https://t.co/4tPX8gocTK


Micron, too, will surpass TSMC in profitability… An 'Nvidia moment' has begun for the memory semiconductor industry


We see substantial upside potential in NVIDIA's 2026 estimates and consider the risk/reward attractive... we raise our estimates and price target within this report. 12-Month Price Target: $210.00

Summary: Goldman Sachs raises NVDA PT to $210, sees substantial 2026 upside; risk/reward attractive despite circular-revenue concerns.

Goldman Sachs) NVIDIA: Impact of OpenAI and Strategic Investments on Business

12-Month Price Target: $210.00

NVIDIA has announced a series of strategic investments and partnerships with companies including OpenAI. This announcement has sparked investor debate over the nature of these transactions — particularly the extent to which NVIDIA’s equity investments in partner firms may be reused by those firms to purchase NVIDIA GPUs, allowing NVIDIA to recognize this as “circular revenue.”

The sustainability of OpenAI’s infrastructure spending will increasingly depend on equity and debt financing. Considering OpenAI’s publicly stated plans for infrastructure investment — including building its own data centers using NVIDIA GPUs, funding the Stargate project, and its Oracle partnership — the firm’s reliance on capital raising is likely to rise significantly, potentially reaching up to $75 billion in 2026 alone. Thus far, such initiatives (e.g., Oracle’s $18 billion debt financing to support OpenAI) have met strong market demand.

We view potential “circular revenue” from these strategic investments as a factor that could dilute NVIDIA’s valuation multiple. As with any strategic investment in customers with limited self-funding capacity, investors are likely to focus on the fundamentals of the investee companies. When the investor is also the supplier, dual roles can create a circular nature of revenue, warranting closer scrutiny.

However, we also believe NVIDIA’s investments are strategically significant as ecosystem-building moves. Specifically, NVIDIA’s actions have clear strategic merit in the following ways:

1. They strengthen the CUDA software ecosystem among developers.

2. They act as a signaling mechanism to other investors, conveying NVIDIA’s conviction in the size of the market opportunity.

We see substantial upside potential in NVIDIA’s 2026 estimates and consider the risk/reward attractive, given that “circular” transactions are expected to account for less than 15% of projected 2027 revenue. Alongside strong growth momentum from core customers, NVIDIA also benefits from incremental upside driven by nontraditional clients. Accordingly, we raise our estimates and price target within this report.

$NVDA


I'd say there's still substantial upside left for NVIDIA

Summary: Author believes UBS's 678K CoWoS wafer estimate is too conservative vs supply-chain checks; sees substantial upside for NVDA.

UBS’s estimate of 678,000 wafers still looks conservative compared to what I’ve heard from the supply chain…

I’d say there’s still substantial upside left for NVIDIA. https://t.co/ry47yjaqXf

UBS Raises CoWoS Demand Forecasts for NVIDIA and Broadcom, With Rubin and CPX as Key Growth Drivers

UBS (T. Arcuri, Oct 8, 2025)

UBS has raised its CoWoS demand forecasts for NVIDIA and Broadcom in its latest report. The firm had previously revised TSMC’s CoWoS capacity https://t.co/hpDhkezpdG


Summary: Relays BofA Hartnett's bullish gold call: $6,000 by next spring on dollar devaluation, Fed chair change, and historical 300% bull-market pattern.

BofA Hartnett: “If History Repeats, Gold Could Reach $6,000 Next Spring”

• Hartnett noted that although gold prices surpassed $4,000 last week, there are still very few long-term investors betting on gold. According to his calculations, gold accounts for only 0.5% of personal assets and 2.3% of institutional assets among Bank of America clients.

• He argued that the early nomination of a new Fed Chair, stimulus and asset-bubble-style policies (citing Argentina’s bailout case), and the coming revaluation of gold (as seen in 1934 and 1973) could all act as favorable catalysts for a U.S. dollar devaluation (“devalue trade”).

• Hartnett stated, “History doesn’t guarantee the future, but in the past four gold bull markets, prices rose an average of 300% over about 43 months.” If the same pattern repeats, he projected that gold prices could reach $6,000 by next spring.


Summary: Morgan Stanley: chip/packaging bottlenecks resolved; investment shifts to downstream HBM, power, cooling, racks, and networking; NVDA dominates AI demand; foundries/CoWoS de-rated as growth drivers.

HBM memory basket: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron

OCP Conference Focus: Foundries and CoWoS Are No Longer the Bottleneck; AI Chip Bottlenecks Lie in Downstream Value Chains Such as Memory, Racks, and Power

The AI semiconductor industry will see another year of strong growth in 2026, but the investment logic in AI hardware is undergoing a profound shift.

On October 20, a Morgan Stanley report pointed out that over the past two years the market’s focus had been concentrated on upstream capacity bottlenecks such as TSMC’s CoWoS packaging and leading-edge process nodes.

However, according to the latest remarks from NVIDIA and TSMC and the signals from the 2025 OCP Conference, this phase has already changed. Through large-scale expansions, the chip manufacturing and packaging stages are no longer the key factors constraining AI progress.

Morgan Stanley emphasized that the real bottlenecks are moving downstream and are concentrating in the associated infrastructure—data center space, power supply, liquid cooling, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server racks, and optical modules.

The report sees this as meaning that investment opportunities are spreading from upstream foundries and packaging to a broader downstream supply chain. Going forward, data centers that cannot secure sufficient power and physical space will become laggards in the competition for AI compute.

Upstream Capacity Is No Longer the Sole Bottleneck; Chip Manufacturing and Packaging Have Already Expanded Significantly

There was a time when there were major doubts about whether AI chips could be supplied in sufficient quantity, and TSMC’s advanced CoWoS packaging capability was regarded as the critical bottleneck. But the latest industry trends show that the situation has changed markedly.

On its recent earnings conference call, TSMC stated that “AI demand is stronger than we imagined three months ago,” and said the company is working to “narrow the demand–supply gap.” Crucially, TSMC said the lead time to expand CoWoS capacity is only six months, which gives the supply side very significant flexibility.

Although wafer front-end capacity at leading nodes such as 4 nm and 3 nm remains tight, AI semiconductors clearly have higher priority than cryptocurrency ASICs or Android smartphone SoCs.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang likewise made it clear in recent exchanges that semiconductor capacity is not the limiting factor it once was. After the surge in demand a few years ago, the manufacturing and packaging stages across the supply chain have “expanded dramatically,” and the company is confident it can meet customer demand.

In sum, even as overall demand continues to grow rapidly, global CoWoS demand in 2026 is projected to reach 1.154 million wafer starts, up 70% year over year, and the supply side’s ability to respond quickly has been noticeably strengthened.

Bottlenecks Shift: Downstream Infrastructure Emerges as the New Challenge

If chip supply is no longer the toughest problem, the bottlenecks naturally move downstream.

NVIDIA pointed out that the bigger constraints now stem from the availability of data center space, power, and related infrastructure, and that the build cycles in these areas are far longer than those for chip manufacturing.

The OCP Conference contents corroborate this. As AI clusters move toward “hundreds-of-thousands-GPU” scale, data center design philosophy is being re-architected:

Power and Cooling:
Deploying large-scale GPU clusters entails enormous power consumption and heat/cooling challenges. At the OCP Conference, liquid cooling has become the default configuration for new AI racks, and demand for power-delivery solutions such as high-voltage DC (HVDC 800 V) is steadily increasing.
This benefits companies such as Aspeed, whose BMCs (baseboard management controllers) are expanding beyond servers to a wide range of equipment including cooling.

Storage and Memory:
AI workloads impose extreme demands on data storage and access speed. Meta has made it clear that, for cost reasons, it will prioritize QLC NAND flash in its data centers. At the same time, Seagate noted that HDDs (mechanical hard drives) will still keep about 95% of total capacity online to meet the needs of large and remote data centers.
Above all, demand for HBM (high-bandwidth memory) is surging, and the report projects that global HBM consumption will reach 26 billion GB in 2026, with NVIDIA alone consuming 54% of it. Such highly concentrated, intense demand makes HBM supply a key variable affecting AI server shipments.

Racks and Networking:
To realize ultra-large deployments, OCP has put forward standardized blueprints such as the “AI Open Data Center” and “AI Open Cluster Design,” covering racks, liquid cooling, power interfaces, and more.
On the networking side, Alibaba stated that pluggable optics remain the best choice due to total cost of ownership and flexibility, and technologies such as LPO (linear-drive pluggable optics) are also drawing attention.
CPO/NPO are expected to be realized in 2028 as manufacturing processes mature.

Demand Outlook Points to Explosive Growth in Downstream Components
The importance of downstream infrastructure is validated by demand forecast data.

Morgan Stanley analysts expect global cloud services capex to increase 31% year over year in 2026 to $582 billion, far exceeding the market’s common expectation of 16%.

Assuming a higher capex mix for AI servers, this implies that AI server capex could grow about 70% year over year in 2026.

On the demand side, major AI big techs continue “stockpiling.” The report breaks down AI chip demand in 2026 in detail:

CoWoS capacity consumption: NVIDIA 59%, Broadcom 18%, AMD 9%, AWS 6%.

AI compute wafer consumption: NVIDIA leads with 55%, followed by Google 22%, AMD 6%, and AWS 6%.

In summary, the signals conveyed by the OCP Conference and cross-validation with industry-chain data clearly point to a new direction for AI hardware investment. As capacity bottlenecks at the chip manufacturing and packaging stages are gradually resolved, the market’s focus will inevitably shift to the infrastructure that supports ultra-large-scale AI compute.

For investors, the report sees this as a call to broaden their view from individual chip companies to the entire data center ecosystem and to find the “pick-and-shovel” players with core competitiveness in downstream stages such as power, cooling, storage, memory, and networking.


the real bottlenecks are moving downstream and are concentrating in the associated infrastructure—data center space, power supply, liquid cooling, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server racks, and optical modules

Power and cooling basket: Vertiv, SMCI; no single ETF


Foundries and CoWoS Are No Longer the Bottleneck

TSMC listed on NYSE as TSM (ADR); also 2330.TW


NVIDIA alone consuming 54% of it. Such highly concentrated, intense demand makes HBM supply a key variable affecting AI server shipments


JPM raises Samsung Electronics' price target to ₩135,000

Summary: JPM raises Samsung Electronics PT to ₩135,000; author shares bullish rating.

JPM raises Samsung Electronics’ price target to ₩135,000.


Summary: Goldman endorses Fujikura's new fusion splicer launch as further strengthening its dominant 50%+ global market position.

Goldman Sachs) Fujikura (5803.T): Launch of New Optical Fiber Fusion Splicer and Fiber Cleaver; Enhanced Competitiveness Through Reduced Work Time

On October 10, Fujikura announced that it would begin sales in October of a new core-alignment-type optical fiber fusion splicer and a new fiber cleaver. These products are used for long-distance optical fiber connections in fields such as telecommunications infrastructure and data center interconnect (DCI). Unlike existing products, they can splice two fibers simultaneously, reducing splicing work time by 20%.

Fujikura holds the world’s No.1 market share in the fusion splicer segment (over 50% global share), and we believe that this differentiated new product launch will further strengthen its dominant market position. Since optical fiber fusion splicing is a labor-intensive process, the work-time reduction provided by these products will bring substantial cost-saving benefits to customers in terms of installation efficiency (for more details on fusion splicers, refer to our March 7, 2025 report on Fujikura’s Sakura Plant visit).

⸻

Key Details

• Fujikura announced that it will begin sales in October of the new core-alignment-type fusion splicer “100S” and the new fiber cleaver “CT60.”

• The “100S” employs a core alignment method (aligning the central axis of the light-transmitting core) to splice single-core optical fibers used for long-distance transmission. Unlike previous models, it enables simultaneous splicing of two fibers.

• According to the company, when used in combination with the single-fiber stripper “SS05” (capable of dual-fiber simultaneous coating removal) and the new fiber cleaver “CT60” (capable of dual-fiber simultaneous cutting), total splicing work time can be reduced by 20%.

• The “100S” is also newly equipped with GPS functionality, allowing splicing test results to be recorded along with location data. This is expected to improve installation management and enhance traceability.


We expect the NAND market to remain undersupplied through 2026. We raised our 2026 data-center demand growth outlook from +25% to +40%. NAND prices were higher at the end of the quarter than at the beginning, and that trend is expected to carry into next quarter.

Summary: Bullish SNDK: NAND undersupply through 2026, data-center demand outlook raised to +40%, rising prices carrying into next quarter, QLC mix expanding.

SanDisk Earnings Call — Q&A

Q: You mentioned the contract structure with customers has changed versus the past. What exactly has changed? And what’s the bit-shipment outlook for 2025–2026?
A1: In the past, most contracts were on a quarterly basis. Now, data-center customers are sharing demand forecasts out through 2027 and are asking for long-term supply agreements.

⸻

Q: What does supply look like over the next few years? Any plans to add new wafer capacity?
A1: We expect the NAND market to remain undersupplied through 2026. Demand is extending far enough that customers are already discussing supply for 2027. At present, we have no plans to add additional wafer capacity.
A2: We raised our 2026 data-center demand growth outlook from +25% to +40%.

⸻

Q: Is the HDD shortage affecting enterprise SSD demand?
A1: HDDs and SSDs are more complementary than substitutes. With AI proliferating, a larger share of data is moving to SSDs.
A2: Over the long term, SSD demand will grow much faster. Starting in 2026, data centers are expected to become the largest end market for NAND, replacing the traditional mobile-centric mix.

⸻

Q: Within data-center demand, how do you see the mix of QLC vs. TLC? And what role does “Big Sage” play?
A1: Both QLC (cost-optimized, high-capacity storage) and TLC (higher-performance compute) have solid demand. QLC currently accounts for about 20% of total revenue and is expected to reach around 40% by 2026. The Big Sage node is optimized to deliver efficient, high-performance QLC.

⸻

Q: Why is gross margin jumping from 33% to 41–43% this quarter?
A1: Pricing. NAND prices were higher at the end of the quarter than at the beginning, and that trend is expected to carry into next quarter.

$SNDK


Summary: KIS Memory Q&A: DRAM and NAND ASP both rising through 2026; supply constrained, demand robust; tagging MU and SNDK as beneficiaries.

Summary of Key Q&A from KIS Memory Semiconductor Asia Marketing

Q. The premium gap between DRAM Spot Price and Contract Price has widened abnormally. Why?

A. The DRAM Spot Price is currently not a price that reflects the actual market situation. This is because there is almost no DRAM inventory in the channel market, so the prices of a few abnormal transactions with extremely low trading volumes are being reflected in the Spot Price. Major suppliers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are forced to drastically reduce channel supply because they lack sufficient volume for their contract customers. Channel suppliers such as A-Data and Phison are accumulating inventory and sharply reducing channel circulation, judging that DRAM and NAND price increases will continue in the future.

Because of this, the Spot Price may face a short-term correction, but this does not imply a change in the industry cycle; rather, it should be viewed as a short-term adjustment due to increased volatility in the Spot Price. In terms of directionality, it is estimated that both Spot Price and Contract Price will continue their upward trend throughout 2026. However, considering the volatility of the Spot Price, it is judged that it would be somewhat unreasonable for the Contract Price to rise to the level of the Spot Price.

Q. What is the outlook for HBM prices in 2026?

A. We have consistently mentioned through our reports that a decline in HBM3e prices is inevitable. This is not due to intensifying competition, but rather a process of the HBM3e price premium dissipating due to the launch of the new product, HBM4. Nvidia’s HBM3e requirements have actually increased, and the HBM supply shortage continues to intensify. Furthermore, in a situation where the margins of conventional DRAM could surpass those of HBM due to rising conventional DRAM prices, memory suppliers have no incentive to lower prices to compete in HBM.

While the blended ASP of HBM in 2026 is bound to decline compared to 2025 as the proportion of HBM3e expands, it is necessary to understand that, as mentioned above, this is a process of HBM3e premium dissipation and not due to HBM competition overheating or oversupply.

Q. Until when and to what extent can the DRAM ASP (Average Selling Price) rise?

A. It is known that the supply fulfillment rate against server customer demand is at the 60% level. Considering this, a sharp rise in ASP is natural. However, the question to consider is up to what level clients can absorb the ASP increase in terms of BOM (Bill of Materials) cost. Simply comparing it to the previous server super-cycle prices of 2017–2018, server DRAM ASP rose 100% in one year, reaching $1 per Gb.

This could be considered a primary resistance line, but considering that current demand is not inventory restocking demand, the possibility of ASP rising beyond this cannot be ruled out. However, since the average price of HBM3e in 2026 is $1.25–$1.35, it is judged that the possibility of conventional DRAM prices rising to exceed HBM prices is low.

Q. What is the impact of the increased burden on clients' BOM costs due to the rise in DRAM ASP?

A. Mobile and PC sectors, which have relatively lower margins compared to data centers, are facing pressure from increased BOM costs. Among mobile suppliers, Apple and Samsung Electronics find it relatively easier to procure DRAM, and considering that Chinese mobile companies can procure some from CXMT, it is estimated that the burden on mobile is less than that on PC.

In the case of PC OEMs, operating profit margins are only 5–7%, so margin pressure is most severe when DRAM prices rise. We see only two options: passing the price increase on to consumer prices or downgrading specs to sell cheaper models. If PC consumer prices increase, PC shipments may decrease due to reduced consumer purchasing desire, and if specs are downgraded, DRAM content per unit may decrease. Both are negative for DRAM demand, but since PCs account for only about 10% of DRAM, the impact on overall DRAM demand is estimated to be somewhat insignificant.

Q. All three DRAM makers are revising their Capex upward. Is there no risk of supply increase?

A. Most of the Capex of the three DRAM makers will be used for mid-to-long-term infrastructure investment. It is estimated that the supply increase resulting from this will contribute from late 2027 or 2028 at the earliest. Samsung Electronics' Pyeongtaek P5 is scheduled for completion in late 2027, and SK Hynix's Yongin Y1 is scheduled for completion in the third quarter of 2027; considering the lead time for equipment move-in, full-scale production contribution will be possible from 2028. All three DRAM makers emphasized that the Capex increase is for securing mid-to-long-term competitiveness, and notably, SK Hynix mentioned in its conference call that it would maintain "Capex Discipline."

Q. What is the current status of CXMT?

A. It is judged that the market impact of CXMT's supply increase will be limited until 2026. CXMT's market share is 16% based on Capa (capacity) as of the end of 2025, but it is expected to be 6–7% based on shipments. The inability to fully utilize Capa is due to relatively low yields, limited applications centered on mobile, and restrictions on sales to non-China customers. Until the IPO in the first quarter, they appear likely to maximize sales of DDR4 and LPDDR4 to maximize profitability.

However, they plan to accelerate the transition to the 1z node within 2026, and the center of gravity will shift to DDR5 and LPDDR5 from 2027 onwards. Nevertheless, in 2026, DRAM supply growth will be limited compared to Capa growth rates due to the node transition within the year. Capa expansion somewhat stalled in 2025 but is seen to resume from 2026. Currently, CXMT's Capa is at the level of 300K wafers per month, and they have a goal to double this by 2030.

Q. Can the trend of rising NAND ASP continue like DRAM?

A. The current shortage of NAND supply is because NAND suppliers have been reducing supply for three years. Unlike DRAM, where physical cleanroom space is insufficient, NAND still has room. However, it is important that NAND suppliers have absolutely no intention of increasing utilization rates. This is because NAND suppliers implicitly agree that the demand structure for NAND is weaker compared to DRAM, and increasing supply could quickly turn the industry into a downturn.

Since 2026 is the year when node transition from V7 to V9 takes place, the decline in utilization rates due to process transition will also act as a constraint on NAND supply. Therefore, it is estimated that NAND ASP will also continue its upward trend throughout 2026.

$MU $SNDK


it is estimated that NAND ASP will also continue its upward trend throughout 2026


SKH remains our top pick, backed by 1) its dominant market share in the high-growth, high-margin HBM market, and 2) its strengthening technological moat. We raise our TP from KRW 710,000 to KRW 845,000.

Summary: CLSA reiterates SK Hynix as top pick, raises TP to KRW 845K on HBM dominance, DRAM/NAND ASP upgrades, and OP estimates +21-33% above consensus through 2027.

251119_SK Hynix: Solid positioning and superb execution - CLSA

(1) SKH remains our top pick, backed by 1) its dominant market share in the high-growth, high-margin HBM market, and 2) its strengthening technological moat.

(2) We expect blended DRAM/NAND ASPs to rise more than previously expected through 2026–27 and raise OP by +6% and +26%, respectively.
■ 26(F): KRW 83.0trn → KRW 87.8trn
■ 27(F): KRW 85.8trn → KRW 108.6trn

(3) The revised estimates are +21% and +33% above current market expectations, respectively.

(4) Accordingly, we raise our TP from KRW 710,000 to KRW 845,000.

(5) The target price is based on 2.5x 2Q26 BVPS, which is roughly 2x higher than the past 10-year average 12M(F) P/B of 1.2x.

(6) In particular, SKH’s book value is projected to grow by +49% in 2025, +76% in 2026, and +49% in 2027.

(7) DRAM ASP outlook
■ 26(F): 1Q +10% → 2Q +4% → 3Q +5% → 4Q +5%
■ 27(F): 1Q +2% → 2Q Flat → 3Q -4% → 4Q -4%

(8) NAND ASP outlook
■ 26(F): 1Q +12% → 2Q +4% → 3Q +5% → 4Q +3%
■ 27(F): 1Q +1% → 2Q Flat → 3Q -5% → 4Q -5%

(9) CAPEX outlook
■ 26(F): +30%
■ 27(F): +20%

(10) FCF and shareholder return outlook
■ The company shifted to a net cash position in 3Q25, and as FCF expands sharply in 2026–27, we see a high likelihood of 1) higher dividends and 2) increased shareholder returns via share buybacks/cancellations.