Samsung Electronics' MX Business Division has reportedly set sales targets for the Galaxy S26 and Z Fold/Flip 8 series 10% higher than their predecessors

Summary: Mobile DRAM super-cycle driving smartphone price hikes across Xiaomi, Samsung, and Apple; bullish on mobile DRAM prices and Samsung's higher ASP trajectory into 2026.

Xiaomi to Hike Prices for New Smartphones; Samsung and Apple Weigh Options

China's Xiaomi is set to implement a price increase for its new smartphone models. This decision comes as the company can no longer withstand the pressure of soaring memory prices. With Samsung Electronics and Apple also preparing for next year's product launches, both giants appear to be agonizing over the possibility of raising their own prices.

According to industry sources on the 24th, Xiaomi will unveil its new flagship, the "Xiaomi 17 Ultra," on the 25th at 7:00 PM (local time in China). The official domestic starting price is expected to be at least 6,999 yuan (approximately 1.45 million KRW). This represents a roughly 10% increase compared to the previous "Xiaomi 15 Ultra" (6,499 yuan). Global launch prices are anticipated to be set about 10% higher than the Chinese domestic prices.

Industry experts agree that Xiaomi's price hike is a direct consequence of the supply shortage in mobile DRAM. Facing a "semiconductor super cycle," the surge in mobile DRAM prices has led to a significant increase in component costs. Since DRAM accounts for about 20% of a smartphone's total bill of materials (BOM), a rise in DRAM prices inevitably leads to higher product pricing.

During the third-quarter earnings call, Xiaomi President Lu Weibing foreshadowed the price hike, stating, "We have reached a point where price increases alone cannot offset the burden of rising costs." To prepare for even sharper memory price hikes expected next year, the company also moved up the release date. The new flagship is being revealed just nine months after the launch of the Xiaomi 15 Ultra last March.

Following Xiaomi's move, changes in pricing strategies are expected across the entire smartphone market. Samsung Electronics' MX (Mobile eXperience) Business Division has reportedly set sales targets for the Galaxy S26 and Z Fold/Flip 8 series 10% higher than their predecessors. This is interpreted as a countermeasure to offset declining profit margins caused by rising manufacturing costs.

The race to secure memory is also intensifying. Roh Tae-moon, President of the DX (Device eXperience) Division overseeing smartphones and home appliances, is scheduled to hold a high-level meeting with Micron in the U.S. during CES 2026 this coming January. This move comes as memory supply alarms go off; despite requesting long-term DRAM contracts from Samsung's own DS (Device Solutions) division, they were only able to secure a 3-month short-term contract.

Apple is also not immune to "Phone-flation" (smartphone + inflation). While the global launch prices for the iPhone 17 series released last September remained unchanged from the previous generation, the iPhone 18 series faces increased cost pressures due to DRAM upgrades and other factors. Furthermore, with the upcoming launch of Apple's first foldable phone, the use of more advanced technology and high-performance components is inevitable compared to the standard series.

Counterpoint Research, a market research firm, projected that "manufacturing costs for smartphones will increase by 25%, 15%, and 10% for low-end, mid-range, and high-end models, respectively, next year," and added that "consequently, the average selling price (ASP) is expected to rise by 6.9%."

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https://t.co/AxJqaf394x


Summary: SMIC's ~10% price hike signals mature-node pricing inflection; multiple structural drivers (AI demand, rising input costs, tightening supply) support sustained price recovery.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

SMIC signals mature-node price turnaround with reported 10% hike

China's leading foundry, SMIC, is reported to have issued price increase notices to selected customers, marking the start of a pricing adjustment. The company has yet to formally confirm the move.

Industry sources in China say that from December 23, parts of SMIC's mature-process capacity notified customers of price increases of around 10%, with multiple downstream clients already receiving the notices.

The move is widely viewed as a potential inflection point for supply-demand dynamics in China's mature-node foundry segment, signaling that pricing is gradually emerging from the cycle trough.

Analysts say the adjustment reflects multiple structural drivers rather than a single trigger.

First, AI server demand has surged over the past year, becoming a key engine of semiconductor growth. Beyond advanced logic, AI workloads are also lifting shipments of mature-node products such as memory, power management ICs, and peripheral control chips, gradually tightening previously loose mature-process capacity.

Another factor is rising input costs across the supply chain. Since the second half of 2025, prices for key materials, including metals, chemicals, and energy, have continued to climb, pushing up manufacturing costs. For mature processes built on large-scale capacity, the ability to absorb these pressures is nearing its limit, making price adjustments increasingly unavoidable.

Third, structural shifts in the global foundry landscape have also strengthened pricing power. As leading players exit mature nodes, the global supply of 8-inch wafers and certain mature processes has tightened, improving pricing leverage for major suppliers such as SMIC.

SMIC's management has long taken a cautious approach to pricing. Co-CEO Zhao Haijun previously stated that the company would not be the first to raise prices, but would not rule out following peers. With players such as TSMC adjusting capacity allocation and mature-node supply tightening, the move is seen as a response to more supportive conditions.

Operationally, SMIC's 8-inch equivalent monthly capacity reached 1.023 million wafers by the end of the third quarter of 2025. Revenue from 12-inch and 8-inch wafers accounted for 77% and 23%, with utilization at 95.8%. Third-quarter shipments totaled about 2.499 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, up 4.6% quarter on quarter, while average selling prices rose 3.8%, driven by a higher mix of complex, higher value-added mature-node products.

On market trends, Zhao said AI demand has driven rapid increases in memory prices, with cost pressures spreading across the semiconductor supply chain. As memory customers seek foundry capacity, some displacement of other chips may occur, creating additional room for price adjustments.

Against this backdrop, the moderate rise in SMIC's average wafer prices reflects its effort to balance supply, demand, and costs. As mature-node conditions continue to improve, the move may serve as an early indicator of the next phase of price recovery.

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https://t.co/UJKUZ8ZMlj


JP Morgan stated that Baidu's investment narrative is undergoing a fundamental shift... sales of Kunlun chips and demand for GPU computing are expected to significantly drive revenue growth rates

Summary: Shares JPM Buy-thesis on Baidu: transitioning to AI infrastructure provider with GPU compute revenue set to double in 2026, cloud valued at $34B.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

JP Morgan: Kunlun Chip Sales Increase, Baidu's Cloud Business Valued at $34 Billion

In a report dated November 23, JP Morgan stated that Baidu's investment narrative is undergoing a fundamental shift. The company is transitioning from a traditional search advertising company to an AI infrastructure provider, and sales of Kunlun chips and demand for GPU computing are expected to significantly drive revenue growth rates.

This forecast is based on a structural shift where major Chinese cloud service providers are accelerating the adoption of domestic AI accelerators. Starting in 2025, China's major hyperscale cloud companies—Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance—are accelerating the purchase and deployment of domestic AI accelerators, moving from pilot applications to large-scale multi-vendor procurement.

JP Morgan expects Baidu's GPU computing revenue (subscription-based AI cloud infrastructure revenue) to double in 2026. Third-quarter GPU rental subscription revenue increased by 128% year-over-year, accelerating further compared to the approximately 50% increase in the previous quarter.

Analysts stated that starting from 2025, Baidu's cloud business has clearly shifted to an 'AI-first' and 'GPU-intensive' growth phase. AI cloud revenue increased by 26% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, accelerated to 42% in the first quarter, and maintained robust growth of 27% and 21% in the second and third quarters, respectively. During this period, AI cloud has grown to account for approximately one-quarter of Baidu's core revenue, becoming a major growth engine.

In the Q1 Large Language Model (LLM) bidding market, Baidu Smart Cloud ranked first by winning 19 projects and recording a bid amount of approximately 450 million RMB, leading other major model suppliers. These contracts typically involve multi-year projects to deploy generative AI applications on Baidu AI Cloud, locking in future revenue streams for GPU and accelerator usage.


Summary: Memory prices will peak ~late 2026, not sustain through end-2027; bearish on memory pricing outlook beyond 2026.

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

I’d like to point out that expecting memory prices to keep rising all the way through the end of 2027 is far too optimistic.

In my view, memory prices will peak around late 2026. https://t.co/tf381E5M1a


Summary: Author shares BofA Korea head's bullish thesis: Samsung and SK Hynix share-price gains to continue on HBM supercycle, stable long-term contracts, and AI sovereignty demand.

BofA Research Center Head: This memory supercycle is different from the past; Samsung and SK Hynix will go further

“The current boom for semiconductor companies is different from past cycles. Customers are trying to secure high-quality memory on a stable basis even if it is expensive. The memory from Korean semiconductor companies, which used to be off-the-shelf, has turned into a luxury product.”

Simon Woo, head of Korea Research at Bank of America (BofA) (photo), on the 4th forecast that the share-price gains of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and others that have recently led the KOSPI rally will continue for some time. He said that the shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) semiconductors for artificial intelligence (AI) has changed the standing of memory companies. Woo has analyzed the Korean market at domestic and overseas securities firms for more than 30 years. BofA recently raised its target price for SK Hynix to 700,000 won.

As reasons for anticipating further share-price increases, Woo pointed to the fact that “in the past, the profits of Korean semiconductor companies fluctuated with the cycle, but now they are securing stable results through long-term contracts.” He added, “Unlike before, they are not engaging in excessive capital spending to expand supply; instead, they are responding to the boom by raising memory prices, which is also a positive factor.”

From October through the 4th of this month, Samsung Electronics’ share price has risen 25.03%, and SK Hynix’s 68.63%. Target prices have also continued to be raised, with Samsung Electronics at 170,000 won (SK Securities) and SK Hynix even appearing at 1,000,000 won (SK Securities).

Woo assessed that the global AI industry is growing on the back of earnings, making it unlikely that a bubble will burst as it did during the dot-com crash.

He said, “Already, the profits of AI big-tech companies amount to as much as several tens of percent of sales, so the situation is different from the dot-com bubble, when investment rose without substance,” and emphasized that “so far the United States has accounted for most of the demand for AI semiconductors, but as countries invest to secure AI sovereignty, the results of Korean semiconductor firms will increase further.”

Woo went on to stress, “If a company makes luxury chips, there is no need to be overly bound by the current valuation.” He added, “Memory chips play a key role in the U.S. AI ecosystem, and those chips do not come out of the United States, Taiwan, or China.”

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https://t.co/D0c3X1mz2x


BofA recently raised its target price for SK Hynix to 700,000 won


Summary: SK Hynix to reach ₩800,000, surpassing all-time high of ₩646,000; bullish on continued undervaluation.

@JEONwh7859 I think SK Hynix can reach 800,000 KRW.

@jukan05 2. SK Hynix Price Outlook
"Do you think SK Hynix will break its all-time high(￦646,000) later this year or early next year? What is your estimate for the peak price in this current bull market? I’m asking because I believe the stock is still significantly undervalued."


earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are being revised upward... Samsung Electronics' annual operating profit for next year has increased by about 28%

Summary: NAND supply crunch driving prices sharply higher; Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia earnings estimates revised up ~28% on surging AI-driven NAND demand.

Competition to secure NAND flash heats up after DRAM… “Negotiations for 2027 supply also begin”

As growth in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry leads to a shortage in memory semiconductor supply centered on DRAM, competition to secure NAND flash is also reportedly intensifying as demand surges. With production capacity at memory semiconductor companies concentrated on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and commodity DRAM, NAND supply is expected to be constrained, driving NAND prices sharply higher. As next year’s NAND volumes are effectively sold out, some big tech customers are said to have already begun negotiations for supply in 2027.

According to industry sources on the 19th, memory semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Kioxia are in talks with some big tech companies over supply volumes for 2027. With NAND supply limited and next year’s volumes effectively sold out, pushing prices higher, companies are taking the unusual step of preemptively negotiating NAND supply volumes two years in advance. A semiconductor industry official said, “Demand for NAND is increasing, centered on eSSDs installed in AI data centers, but it is true that production capacity is limited,” adding, “Some big tech companies that are expanding their data centers have already begun supply negotiations to secure volumes.”

NAND demand is rising in step with the growth of the AI market. Kim Rok-ho, an analyst at Hana Securities, analyzed, “NAND demand next year is expected to increase by 18% year-on-year, but demand will exceed supply by 5%.” Kioxia, the world’s third-largest NAND company, stated in its earnings announcement that the NAND market will grow at an average annual rate of 20% from this year through 2029, and that demand is increasing mainly in the AI sector. The company also projected that AI-related products will account for about half of NAND demand by 2029.

Despite rising demand, most NAND manufacturers are focusing on maintenance and process migration to advanced nodes rather than aggressive investment, leading to a steep upward trend in prices. New production lines being added by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the world’s No. 1 and No. 2 NAND players, are centered on HBM and commodity DRAM. For NAND, instead of additional capacity expansion, investments are mainly going into converting to advanced processes, leaving supply unable to keep up with demand. Last month, the average fixed transaction price of general-purpose NAND flash products for memory cards and USBs (128Gb 16Gx8 MLC) was 4.35 dollars, up 14.9% from the previous month. This is the highest level of the year and marks ten consecutive months of increases since January.

For these reasons, competition to secure NAND volumes is said to be becoming even fiercer. A semiconductor industry official said, “Some suppliers have completed next year’s contracts and are changing the unit of price and volume contracts from one quarter to two–three quarters. Many have also begun negotiations for 2027 supply volumes,” adding, “Compared to solid demand, NAND companies’ stance on capacity expansion remains conservative, and as a result, supply continues to lag demand, which in turn is expected to keep the upward trend in prices intact.”

With profitability expected to improve significantly not only in DRAM but also in the NAND business, earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are being revised upward. According to financial information provider FnGuide, the forecast for Samsung Electronics’ annual operating profit for next year has increased by about 28% over the past month, from 59.6927 trillion won to 76.5275 trillion won. Over the same period, SK Hynix’s operating profit forecast was also revised up by about 28%, from 55.0499 trillion won to 70.5481 trillion won.

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https://t.co/HCQhI01eRe


SK Hynix's operating profit forecast was also revised up by about 28%, from 55.0499 trillion won to 70.5481 trillion won


Kioxia, the world's third-largest NAND company, stated in its earnings announcement that the NAND market will grow at an average annual rate of 20% from this year through 2029


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley bullish note on NVDA: Blackwell ramp, accelerating demand, raised target.

Morgan Stanley vs. Street Consensus on NVIDIA https://t.co/Lnue1GSNhk

NVIDIA: Full-Scale Ramp of Blackwell, Demand Accelerating, Outlook Raised, Target Price Increased
Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 25/11/14)

Morgan Stanley stated that over the past 45 days, industry conditions have clearly inflected to the upside, Blackwell cabinets have entered a https://t.co/gjURAPLWM5


Lumentum's EML (External Modulated Laser) demand is rising rapidly, with price increases expected in 2026. Its OCS (Optical Communication Systems) business shipments are projected at 15 thousand / 30 thousand units in 2025 / 2026, representing about 30 % market share in 2026.

Summary: Long Lumentum, Fabrinet, and Chinese optical-module makers on surging CoWoS/TPU-driven 1.6T optical-module demand through 2025-2026.

GFHK: CoWoS and Optical Module Demand in 2025/2026

NVIDIA’s CoWoS demand in 2025/2026 is projected to reach 377,000 / 630,000 wafers, respectively, of which 50,000 wafers will be for the Vera CPU, with the remainder driven by Rubin’s mid-2026 packaging shipments. From a CoWoS capacity perspective, Blackwell/Rubin-related product shipments in 2026 are estimated at 5 million / 2 million units, corresponding to a 1.6 T optical-module demand of 20 million units.

For Google, due to its own cluster upgrades and the announcement of 1 million TPU demand from companies such as Meta and HPE, its CoWoS demand may rise to 220–230 thousand wafers. TPU shipments are expected to reach 2.7 million / 4 million units in 2025/2026, driving Google’s 800 G / 1.6 T optical-module demand to 6 million / 10 million units, respectively. Consequently, Google’s 1.6 T optical-module forecast will also be revised upward.

The NVIDIA Rubin GPU is equipped with two CX9 NIC (Network Interface Card) chips, doubling bandwidth compared with Blackwell.
Rubin Ultra adopts four CX9 chips per GPU, further doubling bandwidth.

Google plans to complete its large-scale cluster migration in 2026. In the vertical-expansion layer, it will deploy optical interconnects, where the TPU-to-1.6 T optical-module ratio is about 1 : 1.5; in the horizontal-expansion layer, about 1 : 2.5; overall, the TPU-to-optical-module ratio will be roughly 1 : 4 (1.6 T basis).

In Meta’s Minera architecture, each ASIC chip is paired with two NICs, and the ASIC-to-optical-module ratio will expand as bandwidth increases.

Lumentum’s EML (External Modulated Laser) demand is rising rapidly, with price increases expected in 2026.
Its OCS (Optical Communication Systems) business shipments are projected at 15 thousand / 30 thousand units in 2025 / 2026, representing about 30 % market share in 2026.

In the CPO/OIO (Co-Packaged Optics / On-Interposer Optics) field, NVIDIA’s CPO switch shipments are expected to reach 2 k / 20 k / 35 k units in 2025 / 2026 / 2027, respectively.
Starting in 2027, NVIDIA and ASIC vendors will launch OIO solutions, driving incremental demand for CW (Continuous-Wave) lasers, FAUs, and optical engines.

Beneficiaries include Lumentum, FN, and leading Chinese optical-module manufacturers.


Beneficiaries include Lumentum, FN, and leading Chinese optical-module manufacturers.


Chinese optical module basket: Eoptolink+Innolight proxies


Summary: Samsung Securities analyst calls the SOX/Samsung Electronics/SK Hynix selloff a temporary correction, not a peak-out, with rebound catalysts in 1H 2026 earnings and CES.

SOX/Philadelphia Semiconductor Index best proxied by SMH ETF

Reasons Why I Believe This is a Temporary Correction

[Samsung Securities Semiconductor, IT / Lee Jong-wook]

Last Friday (Dec 12), the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 5.2%, and in the aftermath, as of 9:20 AM today (Dec 15), the stock prices of Samsung Electronics (-3.3%) and SK Hynix (-3.4%) are undergoing a correction. Media reports stating that Oracle has delayed the completion of some OpenAI data centers from 2027 to 2028 due to labor and material shortages had an impact, although Oracle has officially denied these facts.

1. Recurring Highlight of AI Risks

I believe the first correction of this cycle was Sequoia Capital’s "AI Bubble" theory in July 2024. Since then, risks have been highlighted in the stock market on a quarterly basis, continuing with the interest rate hike risk in October 2024, the Deepseek shock in January 2025, tariff issues in April, the Sam Altman issue in July, and Michael Burry’s bubble theory in November.

2. The Common Denominator is the ROI Time Lag Issue

There are causes commonly found in stock price corrections:

- Massive Capex scale

- Weak links to profit (OpenAI, Oracle, NeoCloud)

- Burden of short-term stock price surges

Looking at it more fundamentally, it is the "time lag issue between investment and return." It is the fear that while AI seems likely to generate money, it is unknown how much it can make. Since higher valuations mean future earnings have been priced in (pre-reflected), this fear naturally grows larger.

3. How to Distinguish Between a Cycle Correction and a Peak-out

A period where there is no way to find out the unknown is a correction.
When the unknown parts become certain, it is a peak-out.
In a period where future profits are unknown, only investor sentiment wavers, and concerns can turn into cheers at any time.
We view the events where future AI profits become concrete as:

1. Full-scale operation of AI DTs (2028)

2. Operation of TSMC Ph2, Hynix Yongin, and Micron ID fabs (2H 2027)

3. OpenAI IPO (2H 2027)

Before these events, no conclusion can be reached on whether things will get worse or better, and thus the cycle is hard to break. Therefore, we view the current situation as a correction.

4. Rebound Scenario

The correction phases until recently have been resolved by customer-side profits and services.

1. Service Expansion: Increase in AI traffic (token usage, etc.), expansion of service areas (humanoids, etc.), competitive performance improvements (GPT-5.2, etc.)

2. Earnings: Highlighting the solid growth stories of CSPs like Google and MS, or profitability improvement in weak links like OpenAI or Oracle.
Ultimately, proving the increase in user utility due to AI is the yardstick that drives a return to the rally. From this perspective, we look forward to the earnings announcements in January 2026 and CES.

5. Micron

I believe the guidance figures are the most important part of Micron's earnings. We can check the magnitude of future memory price increases and the profit upside of the supply chain in the interim.
Good results are never bad. However, the clue to resolving the AI sector correction must be found in the "end market." This is due to the causal relationship of added value. With Micron alone, we cannot distinguish whether the cause of good results is due to the boom of AI customers or their sacrifice.
Thank you.

(Published Data 2025/12/15)


Reasons Why I Believe This is a Temporary Correction


Summary: Turning cautious near-term on NAND/DRAM pricing into 2Q26 on consumer weakness; long-term still constructive on NAND with SNDK as an explicit name.

NAND semiconductor basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, SanDisk

GFHK) Memory Supercycle: Time for a Brief Pause

After a strong run in stock prices, we are turning more cautious on short-term memory cycle, especially for NAND. The key concern is weakening consumer electronics demand due to rising BOM costs. We are seeing major local Android OEMs and Samsung planning at least a 10% decline in units in 2026. As consumer electronics still represent 37% of total DRAM demand and 56% of total NAND demand, this slowdown is likely to materially narrow the demand–supply gap in 2026. Additionally, our checks suggest that channel inventory will like support Android OEMs moving toward more normalized inventory levels in 1Q26, reducing the urgency for aggressive restocking. As a result, we expect price increases in both DRAM and NAND to moderate significantly in 2Q26.

(....)

NAND – More exposed to weakness; LT supply-demand healthy

We expect NAND contract price increase to slightly fall behind DRAM and we maintain our 30- 35%/25-30% QoQ forecast. We are turning cautious on NAND pricing in 2Q26, as our surveys indicate higher NAND inventory accumulation among local smartphone OEMs than in DRAM, while non-CSP demand still accounts for ~56% of total NAND demand in 2026, leaving NAND more exposed to consumer electronics weakness. As a matter of fact, we already see Kioxia’s smartphone price hike in 1Q26 already down to 10-15% vs 25%+ in 4Q25. In a longer run, we still like NAND cycle thanks to the inflection point in 2027 for token-driven eSSD demand and refrained NAND expansion. NAND capacity additions remaining disciplined, with meaningful expansions limited to Kioxia/SNDK’s K2 and YMTC. Samsung’s P4L has shifted away from NAND and foundry foward DRAM and Micron/SK has no plans for NAND expansion for their ID1/M15X fab.

$SNDK


we expect price increases in both DRAM and NAND to moderate significantly in 2Q26

DRAM semiconductor basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung


In a longer run, we still like NAND cycle thanks to the inflection point in 2027 for token-driven eSSD demand and refrained NAND expansion


Summary: Bullish NVDA: five strategic defenses (speed, NVLink, OpenAI investment, US alignment, power moat) ensure continued dominance despite ASIC market share growth capped at 10–20%.

Concerns Over ASIC Market Share Limits… NVIDIA’s “Five Strategies” to Block the Counterattack

GPU vs. ASIC: Not a Substitution, But a Coexistence

Global cloud service providers (CSPs) such as Google, AWS, Meta, and Microsoft continue to purchase NVIDIA’s AI GPUs in large quantities while simultaneously accelerating the development and production of their own ASICs (application-specific integrated circuits) to reduce reliance on NVIDIA.

However, supply-chain insiders note that “NVIDIA still holds five strategic lines of defense that will allow it to maintain its absolute dominance in the AI market.”

The prevailing industry view is that GPUs and ASICs complement each other rather than substitute for one another. AI GPUs are highly versatile and flexible, while ASICs are optimized for specific purposes.
In short, “GPUs specialize in training, while ASICs specialize in inference,” and the two technologies are evolving in parallel.

Therefore, even if CSPs develop in-house ASICs, these efforts are more likely to serve as cost-saving supplements rather than genuine threats to NVIDIA’s market dominance.

ASIC’s 20% Market Share Ceiling… NVIDIA’s Profitability Remains Overwhelming

Industry participants cite a lack of flexibility as ASIC’s biggest limitation.

When AI model architectures or algorithms change, ASICs must be redesigned — an expensive and risky process.
As a result, many believe ASICs will ultimately capture only around 10–20% of the total market.
Currently, the adoption ratio between GPUs and ASICs in the AI accelerator market is estimated to cap out at roughly 6:4, even under favorable assumptions for ASICs.

In that case, NVIDIA would still claim the overwhelming majority of total AI semiconductor profits.
According to supply-chain data, NVIDIA occupies more than half of TSMC’s CoWoS (2.5D packaging) production capacity and, together with Apple, has emerged as one of TSMC’s largest customers.

In other words, even if ASIC volumes grow, NVIDIA’s dominance in allocation and scale remains unchanged.

NVIDIA’s “Five Strategic Defenses”

① Rapid Generation Turnover — “Winning With Speed”

Industry observers note that NVIDIA is already executing an ultra-fast product generation-cycle strategy to counter the ASIC camp’s challenge.

AI semiconductors now generate hundreds of billions of dollars annually, and NVIDIA has shifted to releasing a new AI GPU every year.

For example, the transition from B200 → B300 is already underway, with VR200 currently in testing and scheduled for mass production in Q3 2026.

This accelerated cadence leaves competitors no time to catch up and forces the entire supply chain to align its production rhythm with NVIDIA’s cycle.
In short, “speed itself becomes the entry barrier.”

② NVLink Fusion — The Start of Platform Expansion
This year, NVIDIA announced its “NVLink Fusion” strategy, introducing a new standard that seamlessly connects its GPUs with other CPU architectures.

In particular, it is collaborating with Intel to extend NVLink to the x86 CPU ecosystem — a move expected to become a key bridge for the future of heterogeneous computing.

③ Investment in OpenAI — Building an “AI Perpetual Motion Machine”

NVIDIA has made large-scale investments in OpenAI, aiming to create an integrated hardware-software “AI perpetual motion” ecosystem.
By anchoring OpenAI’s model-training infrastructure on NVIDIA GPUs, the company further entrenches its platform as the core of the entire AI ecosystem.

④ Aligning With “America First” Amid U.S.–China Tech Tensions

Although U.S. export controls and AI regulations have repeatedly posed challenges for NVIDIA, CEO Jensen Huang has turned these into political opportunities.

At the upcoming GTC DC (Data Center Conference), NVIDIA is expected not only to showcase its AI technological prowess but also to deliver a message of goodwill toward the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda.
In effect, this is a strategic gesture to realign with the U.S. government and minimize political risk.

⑤ Electricity — The New Bottleneck

Finally, the industry is recognizing that “the real bottleneck for AI is now electricity.”

A single AI server (equipped with eight GPUs) consumes over 10 kW of power.

Large-scale data centers require hundreds of megawatts (MW) — comparable to a small nuclear power plant.
Thus, the future growth limit of the AI industry may come not from computational capacity, but from power scarcity.

In other words, the sustainability of AI hinges on securing sufficient electrical infrastructure — signaling a massive structural transformation across global power grids, renewable energy systems, and cooling technologies.

$NVDA

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https://t.co/52wxn7tYeo


Summary: Shares Goldman Sachs NDR note on Samsung: HBM growth not priced in, upside remains; DRAM/HBM earnings turnaround expected in 2026.

Samsung Electronics: Top 5 Points from the U.S. NDR – Outlook for Tight Memory Supply–Demand in 2026 (Goldman Sachs)

1. Memory market outlook

• Both DRAM and NAND demand are expected to exceed supply in 2026

• Given today’s low inventory levels, Samsung judges that a meaningful supply increase in the short term is difficult

• Goldman Sachs estimates DRAM demand +23% YoY (supply +20%), NAND demand +19% YoY (supply +17%)

• In 2026, DRAM is expected to face a supply shortfall of about 3.3%, and NAND about 2.5%

2. 2026 investment strategy and production plans

• Despite strong memory demand, Samsung maintains a conservative approach

• No specific annual guidance due to uncertainty in the second half of 2026

• P4 cleanroom to be used mainly for DRAM production, preparing for HBM4 on the 1Cnm process

• DRAM demand remains solid across all applications, while NAND demand is more limited and server-centric

• Given low margins in NAND, additional CapEx is currently limited

3. DRAM competitiveness and flexibility

• Continued investment even during downturns has secured cleanroom headroom versus competitors

• Focus on the new P4 fab for 1Cnm HBM4; 1Bnm will concentrate on node transitions to serve general DRAM

• HBM3E is based on 1A–1Bnm, while HBM4 will expand centered on 1Cnm

• DRAM supply flexibility is expected to act as a competitive advantage

4. HBM technology progress

• Supplying HBM3E 12-Hi to all customers, with implied potential for Nvidia qualification

• HBM4 samples achieve 11 Gbps speed and low power that exceed JEDEC standards

• HBM4 core die (1Cnm DRAM) and base die (4nm foundry) are each produced in-house on Samsung’s own processes

• Introduced a dual-track strategy for Custom HBM (customers can choose the foundry)

5. NAND segment strategy

• No intention for large-scale expansion given the low margin structure

• 2026 NAND bit demand is expected to be in the mid-teens, but Samsung’s production growth will be below that level

• Despite server-led demand recovery, limited cleanroom space leads to DRAM-first allocation, keeping NAND supply tight

6. Overall implications

• Expected to enter an earnings turnaround phase centered on DRAM/HBM in 2026

• Structural earnings improvement possible on broad memory undersupply and strengthened HBM competitiveness

• Conservative CapEx and limited NAND investment act positively for price stability

• At the current share price, HBM growth momentum is not fully reflected; upside remains


Summary: Shares JPM raise on SK Hynix to KRW 650K on HBM-led structural upcycle, record 56% OP margin forecast, and 2026 EPS ~20% above consensus.

SK Hynix: Transitioning from Cyclical Volatility to Structural Stability, Target Price Raised to KRW 650,000 (JPM)

⸻

1. Key Investment Points
    •    The company is seen entering the early stage of a memory upcycle, with greater structural stability than in previous cycles.
    •    Its AI solution execution capabilities and high-margin, HBM-centered portfolio have significantly strengthened profit resilience compared to the past.
    •    DRAM/NAND ASPs are projected to rise +24% / +18% YoY, with the 2026 operating margin forecasted to reach a record 56%.
    •    Applying an average P/B of 2.4x for 2026–2027, JPM raises the target price from KRW 460,000 → KRW 650,000.
    •    This reflects the visibility of a long-term upcycle through 2027 and a sustained high-margin structure.

⸻

2. Demand and Industry Outlook
    •    Continuous memory procurement of DDR5/LPDDR5 by CSPs, with AI inference demand surging and reinforcing Token Economics.
    •    HBM revenue share within DRAM expected to rise from 43% in 2025 → 50% in 2027.
    •    Launch of 1TB HBM stack solutions to drive high-capacity product sales expansion.
    •    Broader collaboration with OpenAI and major CSPs is expected to support mid- to long-term demand.
    •    Supply expansion remains limited due to cleanroom constraints and the HBM transition, which raises HBM’s share of total DRAM capacity from 21% in 2025 → 30% in 2027.

⸻

3. Profitability and Valuation
    •    Operating margins: 2025E 46.2% → 2026E 55.5% → 2027E 51.7%.
    •    2026 JPM-estimated EPS is about 20% above consensus.
    •    ROE: 2025E 42.8% → 2026E 40.7% → 2027E 33.3%.
    •    EV/EBITDA: 2025E 6.1x → 2026E 3.5x → 2027E 2.6x.
    •    Free Cash Flow: 2025E KRW 1.86 trillion → 2027E KRW 3.98 trillion.
    •    JPM allows for the upper range of historical peak valuations, reflecting a sustained expansion cycle lasting over four years.

⸻

4. Major Growth Drivers
    •    Transition from HBM3E → HBM4 → HBM4E to reinforce technological leadership.
    •    Continued ASP premium driven by growing demand for AI accelerators (ASIC/HBM).
    •    HBM OP mix projected to account for ~42% of total operating profit by 2027.
    •    CapEx growth restrained at around +23% YoY through 2026, maintaining supply discipline.
    •    Potential long-term upside if the “Stargate Project” materializes into new AI infrastructure memory partnerships.


J.P. Morgan's answer is very clear: Stay Long. This implies that top players still have over 50% market upside from current levels.

Summary: Shares J.P. Morgan's bullish 2026-27 memory outlook: Stay Long, 50%+ upside, longest/strongest up-cycle in history, DRAM shortage persists through 2027.

Global memory semicon (DRAM/NAND/HBM) basket

J.P. Morgan 2026 Memory Market Outlook: Memory Giants' Market Cap Approaching $1 Trillion This Year, to Reach $1.5 Trillion in 2027

In its latest research report, J.P. Morgan noted that the total market capitalization of top memory chip manufacturers is nearing $1 trillion. Based on historical valuation medians, this figure is projected to surge to $1.5 trillion by 2027, implying that top players still have over 50% upside potential.

On December 14, J.P. Morgan stated in its latest report that the current cycle will be the longest and strongest memory up-cycle in history.

Investors are concerned that new capacity in 2027 will lead to DRAM oversupply. However, J.P. Morgan's data model shows that such concerns are unnecessary. Due to HBM capacity crowding out and structural demand from AI inference (inference consumes 3x the memory of training), DRAM bit supply growth will still lag behind demand growth over the next two years.

The market is experiencing "Dual-track" pricing. B2B (Enterprise/AI) demand strongly supports high prices, whereas B2C (Consumer) faces cyclical pressure. However, JPM argues that overall, the upside in server demand will fully offset the downside risk in the consumer sector.

Valuation Reshaping: Towards $1.5 Trillion

J.P. Morgan addressed investor concerns directly in the report: With memory stocks having risen sharply over the past three months and approaching the $1 trillion market cap barrier, what is the next step?
J.P. Morgan's answer is very clear: Stay Long.

Based on the "Market Cap/TAM (Total Addressable Market)" valuation framework, J.P. Morgan predicts the memory market size will reach approximately $420 billion in 2027. Applying the median Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 3.5x from the 2018 and 2021 cycles, the combined market cap of top storage and memory makers is projected to approach $1.5 trillion in 2027. This implies that top players still have over 50% market upside from current levels.

The Truth of Supply and Demand: Still Short in 2027

The biggest short thesis currently in the market is that new fab ramp-ups and accelerated tech migration in 2027 will trigger DRAM oversupply. J.P. Morgan refutes this view through a bottom-up "Capacity-Bit" analysis model.

- Shortage Persists: Although the supply-demand gap may narrow from 5% in 2026 to 3% in 2027, it will remain in a shortage state.

- Capacity Crowding Out: Strong CSP (Cloud Service Provider) demand forces manufacturers to allocate more capacity to HBM. HBM's share of total DRAM capacity will rise significantly from 19% in 2025 to 28% in 2027.

- Supply Constraints: Regular DRAM capacity in 2026 is actually expected to decline year-over-year. Even with new capacity coming online in 2027, such as Samsung P4 and Hynix M15X, DRAM bit shipment growth will be limited to under 20% due to cleanroom space constraints and natural capacity loss from increased process steps.

B2B Feast and B2C Cycle

CSPs and specific tier-2/3 consumer electronics brands aggressively securing resources have triggered the recent sharp rise in memory prices. J.P. Morgan predicts a distinct price polarization in the market from 2H 2026 to 1H 2027.

- B2B (AI Driven): Prices will remain firm supported by AI inference demand.

- B2C (Consumer): Will face cyclical price declines due to customer resistance to high prices.

Key Data Forecasts:

- FY26E: J.P. Morgan models show DRAM Average Selling Price (ASP) skyrocketing 53% and NAND ASP rising about 30%.

- FY27E: Even against the backdrop of an extended duration of high prices, DRAM ASP is expected to rise only slightly by 1%, while NAND ASP may correct slightly by 6%.

AI Growth Drivers: Structural Opportunities in HBM and eSSD

HBM (High Bandwidth Memory): Beneficiary of GPU vs. ASIC Competition.
JPM points out that positive feedback on Google Gemini 3.0 has triggered a route competition between GPUs and ASICs, but this serves as a double tailwind for HBM demand.

- Spec Upgrade: Google's next-gen 2nm TPU is likely to adopt HBM4, and the 4x capacity increase brought by Rubin Ultra GPUs will continue to pressure the supply chain.

- Continued Shortage: J.P. Morgan expects the HBM supply shortage (gap of about 8%-12%) to persist through 2027 and possibly extend into 2028.

SSD (Solid State Drive): Key to Inference Applications. The rise of AI inference is driving the expansion of the enterprise SSD (eSSD) market. AI servers carry 3x the SSD volume of regular servers.
Since HDD (Hard Disk Drive) manufacturers' capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is conservative, J.P. Morgan expects eSSD to enjoy massive demand tailwinds over the next 6 months, driving NAND prices up 27% in FY26.

Capital Expenditure (Capex): Increasing but Disciplined

Although memory makers have announced a series of capacity expansion plans, J.P. Morgan believes the actual bit supply growth generated will be offset by physical migration challenges.

- Equipment Spending Leads: Growth in Memory Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) is expected to significantly outpace overall capex growth (DRAM WFE growing 19%/26% in 2026/2027 respectively).

- Intensity Control: Implied capital intensity for both DRAM (below 30%) and NAND (below 20%) will be lower than the 5-year average. This implies that significant discipline is still being maintained on the supply side.


it will be difficult to achieve a production growth rate of more than 20% year-on-year in 2026… forecast that production in 2026 will be limited to growth of around 9% versus 2025

Summary: Relays bearish analyst note on MU: DRAM CAPA growth capped ~20% in 2026 due to EUV/fab constraints; NAND growth ~9% as company retreats from China.

If you’re a Micron investor, you really need to see this.

There’s a comment about Micron in a report written by Hyung Geun Ryu at Daishin Securities, whose work I personally like to follow.

To sum it up… it’s basically saying that Micron’s CAPA increase next year won’t be that big.

I’ll translate the full text.

DRAM: It is estimated that the number of EUV layers within DRAM 1c was reduced in the process of transferring to mass production.

As a result, the process line is likely to have become longer than before, and constraints on fab space are also likely to have increased.

Until Idaho Fab 1 (1Q27 wafer in, 2Q27 wafer out) begins operation, available fab space will be limited, and given that the yield base is high, it will be difficult to achieve a production growth rate of more than 20% year-on-year in 2026.

We forecast DRAM production growth of up to 20%.
-------------------------------------------------------
NAND: We estimate that the company has made efficiency its overarching business principle.

Amid geopolitical risk and the rise of YMTC, we believe the company will drastically reduce its dependence on the Chinese market, where medium- to long-term competitiveness deterioration is inevitable, and will restructure its business with a focus on responding to the server eSSD market, where demand growth is strong.

We estimate that it is even considering reducing medium- to long-term capacity, and we forecast that production in 2026 will be limited to growth of around 9% versus 2025.

$MU


Morgan Stanley has cut PC OEMs' price targets across the board… DELL OW → UW, TP $144 → $110

Summary: Shares/endorses Morgan Stanley downgrade of DELL to Underweight, PT cut to $110, on memory-cost headwinds to general-purpose server demand.

The part I’m especially worried about is this.

Traditional, general-purpose servers are already suffering from weak demand, and memory now accounts for about 53% of their BOM cost.

This means that when memory prices rise, general-purpose server prices inevitably rise as well.
And if that happens… demand for general-purpose servers will deteriorate even further.

This is a very important signal.

Morgan Stanley has cut PC OEMs’ price targets across the board due to the sharp rise in memory prices.

They revised their targets as follows, projecting that OEMs’ EPS could face a headwind of up to -16%:

• DELL
o OW → UW, TP $144 → $110.
o https://t.co/8bu5guIU8A


Summary: Shares HSBC Buy-equivalent coverage on Broadcom with $535 PT, citing CoWoS capacity ramp and ASIC wins at Google, Meta, and Anthropic.

HSBC states the following in its latest Broadcom coverage report:

- Broadcom’s CoWoS capacity for 2026 has increased significantly to around 250,000 wafers.

- Accordingly, Google’s TPU shipments in FY2026 are expected to rise from 1.7 million units to 3.1 million units.

- Meta’s ASIC shipments are also revised up from 750,000 units to 900,000 units, driven by the ramp of its Athena and Iris chips.

- The announced fourth customer is Anthropic, which is expected to contribute around USD 5 billion in ASIC revenue in FY2026.

- Target price: USD 535.

$AVGO


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley Overweight on SK Hynix, PT raised to 630K KRW (+15% upside); 2026 DRAM ASP forecast lifted to +30% on AI-driven inventory tightness through 2026.

Morgan Stanley: “Memory supply tighter, price upcycle to last through 2026”

According to Morgan Stanley analysts Shawn Kim and Duan Liu in a report dated October 29,
SK hynix’s “sold-out” signal suggests that supply will become even tighter and the upward price trend will continue through 2026.

Accordingly, the Morgan Stanley analysts raised their 2026 DRAM price increase forecast from the previous 26% to 30%,
and re-evaluated SK hynix’s earnings outlook to a level comparable to the 2017–2018 super-cycle.

With this adjustment, Morgan Stanley raised its 2025–2027 earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for SK hynix by 5%, 14%, and 15%, respectively.
In addition, based on the Residual Income Model, it raised its target price from 570,000 KRW to 630,000 KRW.
This implies a 2026E P/B of 2.6x and about 15% upside from the current level,
and the firm maintained its “Overweight” rating and “Attractive” industry view.

AI-driven memory tightness… DRAM inventory down to “two weeks”

The explosive growth in AI inference demand is the key driver of this memory market boom.
Morgan Stanley assessed that the spread of AI servers is significantly stimulating demand for commodity memory (DRAM and NAND),
rapidly drawing down industry inventories and supporting the ongoing price uptrend.

SK hynix management stated that inventories are extremely tight.
    • DRAM (DDR5) inventory is down to about two weeks, effectively at a “produce-and-ship” level.
    • NAND inventory has also normalized to about 4–5 weeks.

This reflects the surge in demand from data center servers and eSSDs for storing AI-generated content.

On this basis, Morgan Stanley expects DRAM contract prices in 4Q25 to post a high-teen-digit QoQ increase,
and NAND prices to rise by 10–15% QoQ.

The analysts said, “market participants are already prepared to reward SK hynix,” and
that the AI memory (HBM) business, which currently accounts for about 20% of total revenue,
is expanding into DRAM and NAND as a whole, thereby securing strong pricing power.

⸻

HBM leadership intact… CAPEX seen at 35 trillion KRW in 2026

According to Morgan Stanley, SK hynix’s 2026 capital expenditure (CAPEX)
is expected to expand to around 35 trillion KRW, up 30% from about 27 trillion KRW in 2025.
    • The share of WFE (wafer fab equipment) and infrastructure will rise from 55% to 60%,
    • DRAM is expected to account for about 90% of total WFE spending.

The M15X fab has started up earlier than scheduled and equipment installation is under way.
This fab will play a core role in HBM production in 2026.

Both DRAM and NAND will be expanded through technology migration.
    • 1c DDR5,
    • Migration to 321-layer QLC (from 238-layer TLC).

Based on this, Morgan Stanley estimates that total CAPEX in 2026 will increase by about 42% to 35 trillion KRW.

The report also stressed that “surging AI inference demand is lifting commodity memory demand, drawing down inventories, and sustaining price momentum.”
On the back of its solid leadership in HBM,
SK hynix is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of the structural increase in commodity memory demand and the rise in prices across the board.

Morgan Stanley concluded that
the recent unexpected spike in commodity DRAM and NAND demand has laid the groundwork for a severe supply shortage in 2026,
and that the stronger market conditions could last through 2026.

⸻

Target price raised, “Overweight” maintained

The Morgan Stanley analyst team revised its key assumptions as follows:
    • 2026 DRAM blended ASP growth: +20% → +30%
    • EPS revisions:
    • +5% for 2025
    • +14% for 2026
    • +15% for 2027

Under the new valuation model, the target price is 630,000 KRW,
the 2026 P/B is 2.6x,
and the investment rating is maintained at Overweight.

The report concluded,
“SK hynix is the biggest beneficiary of the sharp rebound in prices across commodity memory, underpinned by its HBM leadership,
and the stock still has meaningful upside potential.”


Summary: Bullish NVDA: even with rising ASIC adoption, NVIDIA expected to capture majority of AI semiconductor profits.

"Even if the adoption rate of ASICs increases, NVIDIA is still expected to capture the majority of overall profits in the AI semiconductor market."

👀 https://t.co/yBil2j400I

Concerns Over ASIC Market Share Limits… NVIDIA’s “Five Strategies” to Block the Counterattack

GPU vs. ASIC: Not a Substitution, But a Coexistence

Global cloud service providers (CSPs) such as Google, AWS, Meta, and Microsoft continue to purchase NVIDIA’s AI GPUs in large https://t.co/XfQEdfy8uk


Summary: Citi reiterates Buy on NVDA, raises PT to $220; expects beat-and-raise on Oct-quarter $57B vs $55B consensus, Jan-quarter guide $62B vs $61B, on Blackwell ramp and CoWoS supply constraints through 2026.

Citi: Maintains Buy on NVIDIA, raises target price from $210 to $220

Citi presented a “30-day short-term bullish” view on NVIDIA, betting that the earnings scheduled to be announced on November 19 will deliver a “beat and raise” (revenue surprise and guidance increase).

Analysts Atif Malik and Papa Sylla pointed out in the report that, despite questions about the funding sources for AI investment, a more fundamental fact is that due to advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity constraints, AI chip supply will continue to fall short of demand until before 2026.

Citi indicated that NVIDIA’s stock remains attractive at current levels. The report stated that NVIDIA’s current price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is about 28x, which is more appealing in valuation compared with AI peers Broadcom at 38x and AMD at 37x.

Earnings surprise imminent?
Citi expects NVIDIA’s upcoming results to easily surpass Wall Street consensus. The report forecasts that the company’s October-quarter sales will reach $57 billion, exceeding the market average expectation of about $55 billion.

For the outlook, Citi expects NVIDIA to guide January-quarter sales to $62 billion, also above the market expectation of about $61 billion.

The report cited the strong shipment momentum of NVIDIA’s Blackwell-architecture GPUs as the backdrop for this optimistic view. Citi’s analysts believe that NVIDIA’s disclosure at the GTC Washington conference that it has already shipped 6 million GPUs is a strong signal that October- and January-quarter results may beat expectations.

In the report, Citi stated that its model assumes NVIDIA’s data-center sales will grow 24% and 12% quarter-over-quarter in the October and January quarters, respectively—more aggressive than the market’s expectations (19% and 15%, respectively).

Rebuttal to the AI bubble narrative
In response to the spreading “AI bubble” argument, Citi presents the opposite view. The core thesis of the report is that the main contradiction in today’s AI chip market is “undersupply,” not “insufficient demand.”

Citi explained as follows:
“While there are concerns about debt and circular financing structures surrounding an AI CapEx bubble, we fundamentally see that due to CoWoS capacity constraints, AI supply will fall short of demand until before 2026, and may only catch up at some point in 2027.”

So the report wrote. This judgment means that robust demand is real, not a product of speculative froth.

To further substantiate the strength on the demand side, Citi pointed out that hyperscalers’ cloud revenue is reaching an inflection point starting in 2025 and is expected to accelerate further in 2026, with the main driver being the proliferation of enterprise AI applications.

Target raised to $220
Based on strong confidence in NVIDIA’s growth prospects, Citi not only raised its target price but also broadly lifted its forward financial forecasts. The new $220 target price is derived by applying a 30x PER to an EPS estimate of $7.24 for the 2026 calendar year.

According to the report, Citi raised its EPS forecasts for NVIDIA’s FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 by 2%, 7%, and 8%, respectively, to better reflect the bank’s revised global AI CapEx model. Notably, Citi continues to assume zero sales to Chinese data centers in its model, implying additional upside could materialize if there is any policy easing.

AI chip market not at the peak yet?
Citi’s bullish stance extends beyond NVIDIA itself to the broader AI semiconductor market. The report sharply raised its forecast for future market size, arguing that the AI wave has not yet peaked.

According to Citi’s latest model, by 2028 the total addressable market (TAM) for global data-center semiconductors is expected to reach $654 billion, 16% higher than the previous projection of $563 billion. The report explains that the main reason for the upward revision is “higher-than-expected demand from key AI players such as OpenAI.”

Risks cannot be overlooked
Although the overall tone is very optimistic, the original report also clearly identifies the risks and market focal points that investors should watch—factors that should not be ignored in investment decisions. The main risks listed by Citi are as follows:

Intensifying competition: In the gaming and AI GPU markets, competition from rivals such as AMD could lead to NVIDIA losing market share.

Slow adoption of new platforms: If the adoption pace of new platforms in data centers and gaming falls short of expectations, sales will be affected.

Market volatility: Demand in the automotive and data-center markets may experience cyclical fluctuations.

Cryptocurrency impact: Changes in cryptocurrency mining demand may interfere with sales of gaming graphics cards.

$NVDA


Summary: Shares UBS Buy reiteration on MU with PT raised to $225, driven by HBM demand expansion and higher Rubin unit volumes.

"Higher NVIDIA (Rubin) unit volumes into next year, now expected at 7.4 million units versus 7.0 million prior."

👀

UBS Raises $MU PT to $225 from $195 - Buy

Analyst comments: "Following recent announcements across the compute space and updated CoWoS supply checks, we have increased confidence that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) demand will expand significantly again in calendar 2027.

In the


The bottlenecks in power consumption and cooling are driving an explosive increase in the value of power and liquid cooling solutions... power and cooling challenges brought by AI hardware upgrades are transforming into massive business opportunities for power and cooling suppliers

Summary: Bullish power/cooling suppliers as AI hardware upgrades drive explosive value growth; per-cabinet power solution value to 10x by 2027.

The bottlenecks in power consumption and cooling are driving an explosive increase in the value of power and liquid cooling solutions.
One of the most notable insights from the report is that the power and cooling challenges brought by AI hardware upgrades are transforming into massive business opportunities for power and cooling suppliers. This segment is viewed as one of the fastest-growing value drivers in the current upgrade cycle.

In the power domain, as the total power consumption per server cabinet rises sharply, traditional power architectures are becoming unsustainable.
The report predicts that power systems will transition to 800V high-voltage direct current (HVDC) architectures, a shift expected to significantly enhance the value content of power solutions.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2027, the power solution for Rubin Ultra cabinets adopting the Kyber architecture will have a per-cabinet value more than ten times that of the current GB200 server cabinets.
It also projects that by 2027, the value of power solutions per watt of consumption within AI server cabinets will double compared with current levels.

Morgan Stanley stated in its latest report that the total value of cooling (thermal) components in a single GB300 (NVL72) server cabinet amounts to approximately $49,860.

For the next-generation Vera Rubin (NVL144) platform, as the cooling demand for both the computing trays and https://t.co/668Mb01WE5


LG Display's Q3 operating-profit consensus stood at ₩440.4 billion—almost double the ₩223.4 billion projected six months ago. Analysts expect LG Display to post an 'earnings surprise' for Q3 and return to annual profitability for the first time in four years

Summary: Korean display makers dominate iPhone 17 OLED supply at 98%; LG Display expected earnings surprise and first annual profit in 4 years; Samsung Display operating margins above 15% in H2.

Korean Display Makers Dominate iPhone 17 OLED Panel Supply with 98% Market Share as China’s BOE Struggles with Quality Issues

As Apple’s iPhone 17 series continues to exceed sales expectations, Korean display manufacturers Samsung Display and LG Display have virtually dominated the OLED panel supply chain for the devices. China’s largest display panel maker, BOE, has reportedly faced difficulties delivering panels due to quality problems. With Samsung and LG responsible for more than 98% of iPhone 17 panel shipments, their earnings outlooks are improving significantly.

According to display market research firm UBI Research on the 28th, the total number of OLED panels supplied for the iPhone 17 series so far this year is estimated at approximately 88.9 million units. Apple’s panel procurement network consists of three players: Samsung Display, LG Display, and BOE. Of these, Samsung Display shipped about 57.3 million units, accounting for 64.5% of the total, followed by LG Display with 30.3 million units (34.1%). In contrast, BOE supplied only around 1.3 million units (1.4%).

Industry insiders predict that the strong sales momentum of the iPhone 17 will further boost panel shipments from Korean display companies. Apple enhanced key specifications such as the camera, display, and battery in the iPhone 17 series while keeping prices unchanged. The base model, in particular, has earned positive reviews for its improved chipset performance, increased brightness, and upgraded front-camera quality, offering strong value for money. In China—one of Apple’s largest markets—sales of the base model are estimated to have nearly doubled compared with the previous generation, according to Counterpoint Research. Reflecting this trend, Japan’s Mizuho Securities recently raised its annual iPhone 17 shipment forecast by 6.8%, from 88 million to 94 million units.

Apple restructured its panel supply chain this year to align with the four iPhone 17 models (Air, Standard, Pro, and Pro Max). Samsung Display continues to supply panels for all models, maintaining its position as the largest supplier by volume. However, roughly 60% of its shipments are for the lower-priced Air and Standard models. LG Display, on the other hand, provides panels for the Air, Standard, and Pro Max models—of which the high-end Pro Max accounts for about 70% of LG’s total supply. Panel pricing varies considerably: about $40 for the Standard model and $60–70 for the Pro Max, roughly 1.5 times higher. Industry observers note that “Apple had initially planned to assign BOE to produce panels for the Pro models and reduce LG Display’s share, but BOE’s quality issues have disrupted those plans.”

Despite Apple’s strategic “support” for BOE, the Chinese manufacturer is still struggling to overcome technological limitations. According to Kim Jun-ho, a researcher at UBI Research, “BOE has faced production difficulties for the Pro models, making even its year-end certification target for supplying base-model panels uncertain. Its total shipments this year are now expected to fall more than 1 million units below the already-revised forecast of 3 million.” Consequently, total iPhone 17 panel supplies are expected to reach about 83–88 million units from Samsung Display, 46 million from LG Display, and 2 million from BOE.

Buoyed by the iPhone 17 boom, both Samsung Display and LG Display are seeing improving financial results. As of October 26, LG Display’s Q3 operating-profit consensus stood at ₩440.4 billion—almost double the ₩223.4 billion projected six months ago. Analysts expect LG Display to post an “earnings surprise” for Q3 and return to annual profitability for the first time in four years. Daishin Securities’ Park Kang-ho noted, “LG Display’s share of iPhone panel supply has steadily risen over the past two to three years, and this structural shift is translating into profit growth,” projecting an annual profit of about ₩859 billion for 2024.

Samsung Display is also expected to continue its strong earnings trajectory. Brokerages estimate its Q3 operating profit at ₩1.2–1.4 trillion, more than double the previous quarter’s ₩500 billion. Eugene Investment & Securities’ Lim So-jeong explained, “Driven by robust sales from key clients such as Apple, Samsung Display’s Q3 operating margin will improve sharply from 7.8% in the prior quarter.” KB Securities forecasts Samsung Display’s H2 operating profit at ₩2.5 trillion, slightly above last year’s ₩2.4 trillion, while Hyundai Motor Securities projects ₩2.7 trillion. Both expect Samsung Display to maintain a stable operating margin above 15% in the second half of the year.

---

https://t.co/yK6dccAZ3q


Samsung Display is also expected to continue its strong earnings trajectory. Brokerages estimate its Q3 operating profit at ₩1.2–1.4 trillion, more than double the previous quarter's ₩500 billion


Doosan has established a plan to expand its CCL production capacity by 50% compared to current levels by early 2027… Supply to new GPU clients, rather than existing ones, is expected to gain momentum

Summary: Bullish Doosan Electro-Materials on accelerating CCL capex (+23%), 100%+ utilization, NVIDIA supply wins, AWS/Google qualification pipeline, and 50% capacity expansion by 2027.

Doosan Electronics CCL supplier context 006280.KS

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Doosan Expands Facility Investment for CCL… Accelerating Push into AI Chip Market

Doosan’s Electro-Materials BG is rapidly expanding its Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) production capacity. It has been revealed that the company recently increased this year's facility investment scale compared to its original plan. This is interpreted as a strategy to address the rapidly growing demand for high-value-added CCLs amidst the global competition in AI semiconductor development.

According to Doosan on the 14th, the company plans to invest approximately 107 billion KRW in CCL-related facility upgrades this year. This marks an increase of about 23% from the originally projected investment size of 86.5 billion KRW.

CCL is a core material for semiconductor PCBs (Printed Circuit Boards), manufactured by laminating copper foil onto an insulating layer composed of resin, glass fiber, fillers, and other chemical substances. Currently, it is used across various industries, including semiconductor packaging, electronic devices, and telecommunications.

Recently, demand for CCL has been surging, driven by the AI semiconductor market. This is a result of not only global fabless companies like NVIDIA and AMD but also Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) such as Google, AWS, and Meta entering the development of their own in-house AI accelerators. Since AI semiconductors must process massive amounts of data, they require CCL products equipped with superior high-frequency, high-speed, and low-loss properties.

As a result, some of Doosan’s CCL production lines in Jeungpyeong and Gimcheon are currently exceeding a 100% utilization rate, leading to tight supply availability. Consequently, Doosan has established a plan to expand its CCL production capacity by 50% compared to current levels by early 2027.

Recently, the company has also been expanding the scale of its investment. According to the company's quarterly report, Doosan plans to invest 107 billion KRW in facility investments for CCL this year. This is an increase of approximately 20 billion KRW compared to the 86.5 billion KRW figure presented mid-year. This is interpreted as a strategy to accelerate investment as CCL demand proves stronger than anticipated.

Doosan Electro-Materials BG began supplying NVIDIA in 2023 and achieved significant milestones last year by establishing itself as a key part of the supply chain for major AI semiconductors, such as the 'B100'. Furthermore, it is projected that the company will secure a substantial supply share for the 'Rubin' chip, which NVIDIA plans to launch in the second half of next year.

In particular, Doosan is leading the Compute Tray CCL sector, and its market position is evaluated to be even more solid. CCLs are categorized into Compute Trays and Switch Trays depending on the application, with Compute Tray CCLs known to have higher technical entry barriers.

Customer expansion is another key expectation. Currently, Doosan is in discussions regarding CCL supply with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google, in addition to NVIDIA. Full-scale supply is expected to begin next year.

Yang Seung-soo, an analyst at Meritz Securities, stated in a recent report, "Supply to new GPU clients, rather than existing ones, is expected to gain momentum." He added, "Supply of switching CCLs to North American CSP 'Company A' has newly commenced, and regarding ASIC CCLs for 'Company G', joint qualification (quality testing) with a domestic substrate manufacturer has been completed, with full-scale mass production expected in the first half of next year."

---

https://t.co/xHiXzwrdip


the memory (storage) sector is in the early to middle stages of a strong up-cycle, and that even though related share prices have hit record highs, the 'best' part of the rally may still lie ahead—so investors should not leave the market too early due to 'peak fears'

Summary: Morgan Stanley says memory upcycle is early-to-mid stage, peak fears are misplaced, stay long; SK Hynix and Samsung as key names with strong earnings momentum ahead.

Surging demand, depleted inventories, memory is already a “seller’s market”… Morgan Stanley: investors shouldn’t exit on “peak fears”

The demand wave triggered by AI is reshaping the global memory market.

On October 19, Morgan Stanley noted in its latest report that the memory (storage) sector is in the early to middle stages of a strong up-cycle, and that even though related share prices have hit record highs, the “best” part of the rally may still lie ahead—so investors should not leave the market too early due to “peak fears.”

Worsening supply shortage, shifting to a seller’s market
Through channel checks, Morgan Stanley found that, aided by a surge in orders from U.S. cloud service customers, memory chip makers are quoting price hikes of up to 25% for DRAM and NAND flash for the fourth quarter of 2025. This shows the market is rapidly tilting toward the seller and that the momentum for price increases is strong.

The report emphasized that the supply-demand imbalance in commodity memory is more severe than expected. DRAM vendors’ inventories have fallen sharply to less than two weeks, and NAND flash inventories have also returned to below their long-term average levels.

The firm expects it will still take 4–6 quarters for new capacity to catch up with demand, and that supply delays will persist. Such an environment typically prompts customers to build buffer inventory, further solidifying the seller’s-market structure.

“We believe the current rally is still in the early to middle stages… A return of prices to historical peaks would imply ‘double’ the potential from here. We have seen no evidence that seasonal demand softness will affect memory pricing for the first quarter of 2026… Such conditions typically lead customers to build buffer inventories, thereby strengthening the seller’s market.”

How much further can prices rise? Morgan Stanley: still a “long way” from the peak
Morgan Stanley believes current prices still have considerable upside before reaching historical highs.

NAND flash: Given strong AI-led demand, prices are expected to “double” from current levels and return to the peak of about $0.13/GB seen in the second quarter of 2022.

DRAM memory: Server memory module prices peaked at $10/GB in the first quarter of 2018, while current negotiated prices are about $5.4/GB. Considering that the potential total addressable market (TAM) for AI memory is expected to surpass that of the traditional commodity DRAM market by 2027, the report sees “sufficient grounds” for the price peak in this cycle to exceed the past.

Move beyond “peak fears,” the key is “earnings momentum”

Regarding the widely prevalent “peak fears” among investors, Morgan Stanley asserts this is a classic cognitive bias.

“New highs usually call for higher highs, and this time there are sufficient earnings to support them; ‘staying in the market’ is more important than timing the market. The best phase of this rally is likely still ahead.”

The report stresses that what drives stock prices is not merely the AI narrative but “earnings momentum.” Taking SK hynix and Samsung Electronics as examples, SK hynix’s share price has risen about 140% over the past 12 months, underpinned by a 62% upward revision in earnings forecasts; by contrast, Samsung Electronics’ share price rose only about 64%, with earnings forecasts raised by just 14%. This difference clearly shows that “stronger earnings upgrades deliver stronger share-price returns.”

Analysts Shawn Kim and Duan Liu wrote in the report that it is almost impossible to time the market precisely, and that historical cycles show that during upswings, “time in the market” matters more than “timing the market.”


SK hynix's share price has risen about 140% over the past 12 months, underpinned by a 62% upward revision in earnings forecasts


Samsung Electronics' share price rose only about 64%, with earnings forecasts raised by just 14%


Summary: Nvidia is cheap; implied bullish.

@ryanTesling Nvidia is cheap right now.

I don’t have a view on Meta.

@jukan05 top underrated AI stock right now ?
what do you think of Meta?


Summary: Goldman raises TSMC TP to $344/NT$1,720, maintains Conviction Buy on sustained AI demand, N2 ramp, CoWoS growth, and upward revenue guidance revision.

Goldman Sachs) TSMC: Strong 3Q GM Performance; Sustained AI Growth to Keep Multi-Year Trajectory; Raises TP to $344, Maintains Buy Rating

1. AI Demand Expansion
TSMC held its 3Q25 earnings call on October 16, 2025. The company reported a strong gross margin (GM) for the quarter, and its 4Q GM guidance indicated a further 50bps (0.5ppt) improvement quarter-over-quarter. We believe one of the most important takeaways from the call was TSMC’s progressively more positive stance on AI. Management acknowledged that AI token generation is growing exponentially every three months, confirming that demand for advanced nodes is real. While TSMC maintained its long-term AI revenue CAGR guidance in the mid-40% range, management did not rule out a potential upward revision amid continued AI strength.

2. Advanced Packaging Continues to Gain Attention
CoWoS remains another key focus area among investors. TSMC stated that it is working very hard to expand 2026 capacity and narrow the demand-supply gap. Overall, with CoWoS adoption expanding beyond AI into non-AI sectors, we continue to expect more sustained and diversified growth in CoWoS demand. We maintain our projection that CoWoS capacity and shipment will grow at CAGRs of 61% and 54% respectively from 2025–2027, with annual capacity expected to reach 675K / 1.2M / 1.74M wafers and shipments at 664K / 1.08M / 1.566M wafers.

3. Upward Revision to Annual Guidance
Although management provided limited detail on the 2026 outlook, for 2025, TSMC raised its full-year revenue growth guidance (in USD terms) from 30% to the mid-30% range. Capex guidance was also slightly lifted from $38–42B to $40–42B. Furthermore, TSMC lowered its gross margin dilution guidance from overseas fabs from 2–3ppt to 1–2ppt. Overall, we raise our 2025–2027 EPS estimates by 5–9%, lift our 12-month target price (TP) from NT$1,600 to NT$1,720, and maintain our Buy rating (on Conviction List).

4. Stronger AI Demand Drives 2025 Guidance Upward
Citing robust and sustained AI demand, TSMC revised its 2025 full-year USD revenue growth guidance upward from 30% YoY to the mid-30% range. Management emphasized that AI-related demand remains even higher than it was three months ago. For non-AI applications, TSMC noted that markets have bottomed and are gradually recovering. Overall, we now forecast TSMC’s USD revenue growth of 35.4% in 2025 and 21.7% in 2026 (previously 34.1% and 18.9%, respectively), supported by strong AI-driven demand for leading-edge nodes.

5. Solid N2 Demand Led by Smartphones and AI/HPC
Management stated that the N2 process remains on track for mass production in 4Q25, with expansion expected to accelerate in 2026 driven by smartphone and AI/HPC demand. We remain constructive on N2 development. At our Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025, management reiterated that smartphone and HPC customers will drive the initial adoption, with continued customer migration sustaining momentum thereafter. We expect AI to form the second adoption wave by late 2026/2027.
We project N2 capacity to reach 660K/1.23M wafers in 2026/2027, with shipments at 405K/990K wafers.

In conclusion, we expect N2’s revenue contribution during its ramp-up phase to be significantly higher than N3’s, driving a faster top-line increase. We now estimate that N2 will contribute 9.0% and 19.8% of wafer revenue in 2026/2027, compared with N3’s 5.1% and 17.8% in its first two years. As a result, we view 2027 as a year of reacceleration for TSMC, following already strong 21.7% YoY USD revenue growth in 2026. We now model TSMC’s USD revenue growth at 22.1% in 2027 (previously 20.4%).

6. Potential Upward Revision to Long-Term AI Revenue Outlook
During the call, management faced numerous investor questions about whether it plans to revise its five-year CAGR guidance for AI accelerator revenue, initially presented in the mid-40% range starting from 2024. Although management did not formally update this outlook, it did not rule out an upward revision and noted that further details will be provided in early 2026.
This commentary aligns with our previous view (see prior note) that TSMC’s AI-related revenue growth will likely match or exceed the overall AI infrastructure market CAGR of 42.3% over the next five years. Leveraging its leadership in both advanced nodes and advanced packaging, we expect TSMC to continue gaining share in the AI infrastructure market, with AI revenue growth potentially outpacing total AI infrastructure TAM expansion.

$TSM


SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, which are vying for the industry lead, has already been fully contracted out through next year's production

Summary: Big-tech AI demand has fully booked SK Hynix and Samsung HBM/DRAM through next year; supply crunch structurally bullish for all three memory makers including Micron.

[Exclusive] Microsoft and Google stationed in Korea pleading for supply… Get fired if you fail to secure Samsung and SK volume

Earlier this month, purchasing executives from Microsoft (MS) who visited Korea held long-term agreement (LTA) and price negotiations with SK hynix. At this meeting, SK hynix expressed the position that “it is difficult to supply under the conditions MS wants.” An industry source explained, “Upon hearing this, an MS executive could not contain their anger and stormed out of the meeting.”

According to the industry on the 25th, as the global shortage of artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors intensifies, procurement executives from global big tech firms such as MS and Google are flocking to Korea to secure volume. An official in the semiconductor industry said, “To sign memory supply contracts with Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK hynix, procurement executives from the headquarters of major big tech companies including MS, Google, and Meta are practically stationed in Korea.” They are waging an all-out war to preempt memory semiconductors essential for AI chips and data center build-outs, including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), DRAM, and enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD).

The reason big-tech procurement executives are entreating SK hynix and Samsung Electronics is that without high-performance, low-power memory semiconductors they cannot secure a competitive edge in the AI industry. AI’s training and inference capabilities are determined by the performance of graphics processing units (GPUs), tensor processing units (TPUs), and data centers. GPUs and TPUs require HBM, and AI data centers need LPDDR in order to deliver high performance. There are only three companies in the world capable of producing high-performance HBM and LPDDR: SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron. In particular, it is known that the HBM and DRAM output of SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, which are vying for the industry lead, has already been fully contracted out through next year’s production. As memory semiconductors have effectively dried up in the market, big-tech procurement executives are staying in Korea, pleading for supply.

Google, which is pushing to sell its in-house AI accelerator TPU to external customers, is understood to have fired the executives in charge after running into a memory supply crunch. Currently, about 60% of the HBM mounted on TPUs is supplied to Google by Samsung Electronics. As recent TPU demand exceeded expectations, Google sounded out SK hynix and Micron on whether additional volume could be secured. The answer was “impossible.” Google’s management is said to have dismissed the procurement personnel responsible, holding them accountable for creating supply-chain risk by failing to sign LTAs in advance. It is a disciplinary personnel measure against the working-level staff who did not secure volume in time.

Big tech firms are even changing their hiring practices in order to put everything on the line in managing Asian supply chains, going beyond simply placing volume orders. Whereas in the past memory procurement managers worked at headquarters in Silicon Valley or Seattle, recently they are increasingly being hired to work in Asian regions such as Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. This is seen as an attempt to closely manage the supply chain on the ground in Asia, where key semiconductor manufacturers like Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and TSMC are located.

In fact, Google recently posted a job opening for a Global Memory Commodity Manager, seeking an expert to establish sourcing strategies for data-center memory such as DRAM and NAND flash. Meta is also recruiting talent under the title Memory Silicon Global Sourcing Manager, looking for someone capable of collaborating on technology roadmaps. The strategy is to place experts with engineering knowledge in the field to simultaneously conduct technical coordination and secure volume, going beyond simple purchasing. One industry insider said, “Big techs are currently placing open-ended orders with the three memory companies, effectively saying ‘Give us all the volume you can, regardless of price,’” adding, “Since both Samsung and SK’s advanced HBM and other cutting-edge process lines are already running at full capacity, it is physically difficult to meet all of these demands.”

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https://t.co/gs8riSJdby


To sign memory supply contracts with Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK hynix, procurement executives from the headquarters of major big tech companies including MS, Google, and Meta are practically stationed in Korea


There are only three companies in the world capable of producing high-performance HBM and LPDDR: SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and Micron


Summary: Bullish on Lotte Energy Materials and Doosan as they enter Nvidia's supply chain via HVLP copper foil/CCL collaboration, targeting 20–30% AI circuit foil share by 2028.

Lotte Energy Materials 020150.KS Korea copper foil

A Potential Korean Competitor to Mitsui Emerges: Lotte Energy Materials Enters Nvidia Supply Chain in Collaboration with Doosan

Remember the company I covered on Substack last month? Korean media has reported that Lotte Energy Materials is aiming to enter Nvidia’s supply chain through a collaboration with Doosan.

The structure is that Doosan supplies CCL to Nvidia, and Lotte enters the supply chain by providing a portion of the HVLP copper foil used in those laminates.

Lotte Energy Materials has stated its goal to capture a 20–30% market share in AI circuit foil by 2028.

In reality, market entry is difficult as Mitsui Mining & Smelting currently dominates the circuit foil market with a 98% share. However, analysts suggest that an opportunity has opened up for Lotte Energy Materials due to client demands for vendor diversification. The industry assessment is that Lotte Energy Materials is the only company in Korea possessing the relevant capabilities. It is understood that Doosan BG's CCL, utilizing Lotte Energy Materials' HVLP4, is currently awaiting re-approval from Nvidia.

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Related: https://t.co/QI8HWsVxHc


Doosan supplies CCL to Nvidia, and Lotte enters the supply chain by providing a portion of the HVLP copper foil used in those laminates


it's unsustainable for SK Hynix to maintain the kind of overwhelming HBM technology lead it had in 2025

Summary: Author endorses thesis that SK Hynix's HBM dominance fades by ~2028 as Samsung and Micron close the gap, with Samsung best positioned on capacity.

I share that outlook as well.
The view is that it’s unsustainable for SK Hynix to maintain the kind of overwhelming HBM technology lead it had in 2025.

'A semiconductor industry official said, "By around 2028, there is a high possibility that Samsung Electronics and Micron will both overcome HBM technological barriers and share profits similarly to SK Hynix," adding, "They have already caught up significantly, and assuming that the technology of all major manufacturers becomes sufficient to meet Nvidia's requirements soon, Samsung Electronics, possessing the largest capacity among memory companies, will be able to occupy an advantageous position."'

Samsung Electronics Fired Up on HBM... SK Hynix's 'Iron Fortress' Shaken

Interpretations are emerging that SK Hynix's stronghold is shaking due to Samsung Electronics' aggressive HBM investments. While SK Hynix has effectively monopolized the initial volume of the latest HBM https://t.co/SWHmmPLKMf


Samsung Electronics, possessing the largest capacity among memory companies, will be able to occupy an advantageous position


Samsung Electronics and Micron will both overcome HBM technological barriers and share profits similarly to SK Hynix


Samsung Electronics… pushing to raise NAND prices… internally considering price hikes of 20–30% or more

Summary: NAND supply cuts by all four major makers driving 40-50%+ price surge; Samsung, Hynix, and Micron positioned to benefit from rising ASPs and QLC shift.

Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Kioxia and other NAND makers sharply cut NAND flash supply… A full-fledged price surge amid ‘short supply’

Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Kioxia, and Micron—the four global NAND flash manufacturers—are collectively reducing NAND flash supply in the second half of this year. While steering price increases through supply control, analysts note that production losses are inevitable as production equipment is being replaced with the quad-level cell (QLC) process, for which demand is surging, centered on AI data centers.

At the same time, Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Kioxia are pushing to raise NAND prices, which had stayed at cost levels throughout last year. In particular, Samsung is said to be discussing next year’s NAND supply volumes with major overseas customers while internally considering price hikes of 20–30% or more.

According to annual NAND flash production data from market researcher Omdia obtained by ChosunBiz on the 12th, Samsung Electronics has lowered its target for NAND wafer output this year to around 4.72 million sheets, about 7% down from the previous year’s 5.07 million. Kioxia also adjusted its output from 4.80 million last year to 4.69 million this year. Omdia expects the production-cut stance at Samsung and Kioxia to continue into next year.

SK hynix and Micron are likewise keeping output conservatively constrained in a bid to benefit from higher prices. SK hynix’s NAND output fell about 10%, from 2.01 million sheets last year to around 1.80 million this year. Micron’s situation is similar: it is maintaining production at Fab 7 in Singapore—its largest NAND production base—in the low 300,000-sheet range, keeping a conservative supply posture.

As major suppliers move in unison to control production, average selling prices (ASPs) for NAND products are rising sharply. NAND prices, which climbed 15% in just the last quarter, could surge a further 40–50% or more going forward, according to overseas market research firms. TrendForce reports that the spot wafer price of the most widely used 512-Gb triple-level cell (TLC) NAND chip rose 14.2% from the previous week to $5.51. Spot prices refer to prices for immediate transactions in the distribution market; when this price rises, it means the product has become harder to obtain.

That TLC-based NAND is in short supply also implies that major NAND suppliers are focusing on QLC, which offers higher profitability, instead of TLC. QLC and TLC refer to the number of bits stored in a single cell, the basic unit of NAND flash. TLC stores three bits per cell, whereas QLC stores four. For the same area, QLC can secure 30% more capacity than TLC, making it advantageous for producing high-capacity SSDs essential for AI data centers.

A semiconductor industry source explained, “As existing TLC-based NAND production lines are converted to QLC, which is essential for AI data-center SSDs, a natural production-cut effect—where some TLC NAND production equipment goes idle—is occurring at all four major suppliers. As is customary, the ‘losses’ in output that occur during equipment and process transitions tend to lead to sharp rises in market prices.”

Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which had long struggled with oversupply, are also moving to maximize profitability amid signs of NAND price increases. Earlier, U.S.-based SanDisk was said to have raised contract prices for NAND products by up to around 50% starting this month. With major North American big-tech firms, concerned about soaring NAND prices, embarking on “stockpiling,” some analyses suggest that next year’s NAND supply volumes are already sold out.

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https://t.co/pOeySfy90b


SK hynix… moving to maximize profitability amid signs of NAND price increases


Micron… maintaining production… keeping a conservative supply posture


Amid the accelerated ramp-up of TSMC's CoWoS, the total volume of GPUs and ASICs that can be shipped in 2026 is being revised upward

Summary: Daishin note: TSMC CoWoS ramp drives upward revision to 2026 GPU/ASIC/HBM volumes; NVDA, AVGO, AMD all raising HBM orders.

Daishin Securities December 1 Note – Key Points

1. Amid the accelerated ramp-up of TSMC’s CoWoS, the total volume of GPUs and ASICs that can be shipped in 2026 is being revised upward. The same applies to HBM.

2. It is estimated that Nvidia has increased its orders for 12-high HBM3e in order to maximize GB300 shipments, and Broadcom is also believed to have raised its HBM3e orders to prepare for strong volume growth from major customers such as Google and OpenAI.

3. AMD is likely to place more HBM4 orders than expected. In the AMD market, attention should be paid to the larger-than-expected HBM4 purchasing TAM.

$TSM $NVDA $AVGO $AMD


Nvidia has increased its orders for 12-high HBM3e in order to maximize GB300 shipments


Broadcom is also believed to have raised its HBM3e orders to prepare for strong volume growth from major customers such as Google and OpenAI


AMD is likely to place more HBM4 orders than expected. In the AMD market, attention should be paid to the larger-than-expected HBM4 purchasing TAM


HBM sector basket: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron


Summary: Bearish ARM: SoftBank's Masa Son overhang means any rally will be sold into.

@xfan0209 Masa is holding way too much.
If the stock even looks like it might go up a little, Masa will probably dump it.

@jukan05 What's your take on ARM? The stock has been flatlining for 2 years


Summary: JPMorgan: ASE, Amkor, Advantest, Chroma, and GPTC are key beneficiaries of AI advanced packaging demand surge and CoWoS/test market growth into 2026-27.

ASE Technology Holding US ADR ticker ASX

251203_ Asian Semis: Mapping out the Advanced Back-end market for AI - JPMorgan

[Key Takeaways]

(1) CoWoS demand is expected to exceed supply until 2027.

- Robust demand for GPUs/ASICs, 2) N3 yield bottlenecks (due to EUV usage, etc.), 3) Preparation for CoPoS.

(2) The trickle-down effect to OSATs is expected to continue, with high growth in the Test market fully materializing in 2026.

(3) Meanwhile, TSMC's CoPoS pilot line is scheduled for completion in early 2026. A follow-up on the related value chain in 2H26 is necessary ahead of the scheduled full-scale ramp-up in 2027.

[Contents]

(1) Due to the recent surge in AI chip demand and limited expansion of packaging CAPA, there are numerous inquiries regarding AI and 2.5D/3D chip advanced packaging.

(2) First, ASE is expected to be a major beneficiary of expanded outsourcing from TSMC, specifically in 1) On-Substrate & Wafer Probing, and 2) Full-process 2.5D packaging.

(3) Amkor is also expected to benefit from increased outsourcing by Broadcom.

(4) In the test equipment sector, Chroma and Advantest are expected to benefit, primarily due to "increased test intensity."

(5) Among packaging equipment vendors, we view GPTC positively due to the potential for CoWoS CAPA expansion and increased orders for CoPoS starting from 2H26.

(6) CoWoS demand in '26–'27 is projected to exceed supply by +20–30%.

- CoWoS Capacity: 105K (End of '26) → 125K (End of '27).

(7) Even with outsourcing to external vendors, the excess demand situation is expected to persist for customers like NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD, and Amazon.
(8) TSMC appears to be proceeding cautiously with CAPA expansion, centering on CoWoS-L, and it will likely remain difficult to satisfy all overall customer demand.

(9) Furthermore, as the N3 Front-end process is likely to become a bottleneck, it is judged that aggressive CoWoS expansion in '26 will be difficult.

(10) AP07 and AP08A are already filled with capacity expansions for WMCM/SoIC and CoWoS-L, and some processes have been offloaded to OSATs.

(11) Additionally, due to the possibility of technological replacement by CoPoS in the future, TSMC continues to maintain a cautious stance on CoWoS CAPA expansion beyond '27.

(12) Meanwhile, ASE is already receiving outsourcing orders for On-Substrate and Wafer Probing, which is projected to account for more than 80% of its LEAP (Leading Edge Advanced Packaging) revenue in '26.

(13) ASE's 2.5D Full Processing packaging CAPA is expected to reach 15–20K by the end of '26.

- Major customer: AMD (Venice CPU, legacy MI series, etc.).

(14) There is also a probability of securing orders for NVIDIA's Vera CPU and a portion of Broadcom's Tomahawk Switch IC.
- '27 Outlook: CoWoS revenue ~$1bn, LEAP total revenue ~$5bn.

(15) ASE has executed CAPEX 3–4 times higher than Amkor over the past two years and is projected to capture approximately 70–80% of TSMC's outsourcing demand.

(16) In Amkor's case, while it struggled due to the blocking of NVIDIA H20, it is entering a recovery phase with increased CoWoS-S outsourcing from Broadcom in '26.

(17) Its 2.5D packaging capacity is expected to grow from the existing 6–8K to 12–15K by the end of '26.

- Major customers: Broadcom (Tomahawk 6, potential for TPUs), NVIDIA (GB10, ARM CPU, potential for Vera CPU).

(18) Limited CAPA within Taiwan is a bottleneck for securing TSMC outsourcing, and expansion at the Korea K5 plant is slow. Meaningful growth is difficult until the Arizona Peoria facility comes online in '28.

(19) TSMC's CoPoS (310x310mm) pilot line is expected to be completed in early '26.

(20) If yield issues are resolved, there is a possibility that CoPoS will be adopted in NVIDIA's Feynman Project in '28.

(21) Orders for CoPoS CAPA are expected to start appearing as early as 2H26, with ramp-up anticipated in '27.

(22) Lastly, the Test market is projected to increase very strongly in '26.

(23) Factors such as 1) N3 process transition, 2) expanded adoption of Chiplets, and 3) introduction of HBM4 will drive longer test times, strongly boosting demand for new testers.

(24) For NVIDIA GPUs, KYEC is expected to maintain a high market share for Blackwell and Rubin, while ASE may capture a small share of Rubin by the end of '26.

(25) According to our channel checks, certification for Advantest's Burn-in Oven is currently not proceeding smoothly, which will be a limiting factor for ASE's Final Test share expansion.

(26) In ASICs, KYEC is expected to continue its good positioning in Broadcom testing (Alphabet TPU + Meta MTIA), while ASE/Amkor are projected to benefit from the ramp-up of Amazon Trainium 3.

(27) For AMD, Chroma's SLT (System Level Test) is expected to be qualified for the MI450, and it is anticipated to sustain a 100% share in NVIDIA Rubin SLT thereafter.


Amkor is also expected to benefit from increased outsourcing by Broadcom

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'


Chroma and Advantest are expected to benefit, primarily due to 'increased test intensity'


industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'


Summary: Morgan Stanley raises MU PT to $325; author shares/adopts the bullish stance.

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Micron to $325.

$MU https://t.co/Z7Zhu6NPxr


I had been holding Broadcom for a long time but recently decided to sell it… it is impossible for Broadcom to permanently and consistently earn profit margins from its ASIC projects that are on par with what Nvidia makes… the profits Broadcom earns from ASIC projects can only trend downward over time

Summary: Sold AVGO; bearish on structural margin erosion as ASIC know-how transfers to customers; implicitly favors NVDA's durable margin model.

This is also why I had been holding Broadcom for a long time but recently decided to sell it.

“AVGO only handles the back-end design in Google’s TPU project… Google carries out the remaining 100% entirely in-house.”

Exactly. What I keep emphasizing is that it is impossible for Broadcom to permanently and consistently earn profit margins from its ASIC projects that are on par with what Nvidia makes.

By its very nature, what Broadcom does inevitably transfers its know-how to its customers, and that means the profits Broadcom earns from ASIC projects can only trend downward over time.

$AVGO $NVDA

A very informative interview with an $AMD employee on the ASIC vs $NVDA battle and $GOOGL's TPUs:

1. In the case of the $GOOGL / $AVGO TPU relationship, he thinks that $AVGO doesn't know everything about the chip anymore. In the first two generations, they collaborated on the https://t.co/9nLOpfJttX


it is impossible for Broadcom to permanently and consistently earn profit margins from its ASIC projects that are on par with what Nvidia makes