Summary: DRAM/NAND spot prices up sharply; another 20-40% QoQ hike forecast for Q1 2026 under tight supply; Samsung RDIMM releases limited, market stays seller-driven into 2026.

Global DRAM memory basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

Memory spot prices surged as Samsung's RDIMM limitedly ease supply in late 4Q25

Global memory capacity remained tight with strong demand pushing DRAM and NAND flash spot prices sharply higher in November. Samsung Electronics planned to moderately release RDIMM modules mainly for server customers in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly easing shortages but leaving many smaller buyers struggling amid soaring costs.

DRAM and NAND prices surge sharply in November
November spot market prices for both DRAM and NAND Flash showed significant increases. Notably, DDR5 prices rose substantially for two consecutive months, widening the price gap with DDR4 of the same specifications. This indicates persistent tight supply-demand dynamics, pushing DDR4 16Gb chip prices to a record US$42.5 per unit, a monthly increase exceeding 60%.

After doubling in October, DDR5 16Gb spot prices remained robust in November with a 55% rise. Mainstream DDR4 8Gb also sustained a 56% jump. Meanwhile, Flash wafer 512Gb TLC pricing climbed to US$9, up 80% from October and tripling since February-March 2025.

Samsung's tail-end RDIMM release eases shortages, but benefits are uneven
As memory price pressures intensify, competition for supply has grown fiercer. Industry sources report that Samsung began small-scale shipments from late November through early December, releasing batches of DDR5 RDIMM and DDR4 modules. Although these volumes cannot fully meet demand, they offer slight relief compared to near-zero availability in October, helping ease shortages for electronic system vendors heading into year-end.

Recently released DDR5 RDIMM server module prices surged again, with official fourth quarter prices rising approximately 65-70% or more versus third quarter 2025, higher than earlier estimates of 50-60%. The memory market remains firmly seller-driven, as manufacturers continue raising contract prices and controlling capacity expansion, driving prices upward.

Market forecasts suggest another 20% price hike in the first quarter of 2026. While this quarter-over-quarter increase may moderate slightly from fourth quarter levels, under current "supply-first" conditions, hikes could reach 30-40%. Supply chain participants warn that if the first quarter of 2026 rises exceed 20%, many customers will struggle to absorb costs.

Smaller buyers face growing challenges amid prioritized CSP supply
Meanwhile, smaller firms face bleak prospects as upstream suppliers prioritize large CSP customers. Despite tight purchasing conditions, LPDDR5 products sold to servers command 50-60% higher prices than those for other applications. Consequently, consumer application orders are deferred behind server demands.

Some industry insiders reveal that after Samsung halted pricing quotes in October, it resumed DRAM chip quotations mid-November with average contract price increases of 30-40%. Yet actual DDR5 availability remains scarce, forcing inventory consumption while spot prices jumped 3-5x, escalating procurement cost pressures.

NAND Flash prices followed suit. Phison CEO Khein-Seng Pua noted nearly doubled prices in the fourth quarter. Sources indicate US-based NAND giants raised prices repeatedly, with November quotes 100-150% above October. Some NAND makers held prices steady in the fourth quarter but faced severe supply shortages.

Expectations point to even steeper hikes in the first quarter of 2026.

Benefiting from soaring memory average selling prices (ASPs), multiple memory module manufacturers across Taiwan and China have already met their annual sales targets ahead of schedule. With scarce resources at original makers and in the spot market, the industry favors a slower shipment pace, adopting selective or conservative delivery approaches. This trend is expected to keep overall memory prices elevated throughout 2026.

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https://t.co/88lknakVB9


Benefiting from soaring memory average selling prices (ASPs), multiple memory module manufacturers across Taiwan and China have already met their annual sales targets ahead of schedule

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


Summary: Nomura reiterates Buy on Samsung & SK Hynix, raising earnings estimates on stronger commodity DRAM/NAND prices; memory supercycle to persist through 2027F.

Nomura Global memory: Stronger memory prices drive up earnings

Revising up earnings for 4Q25F and beyond, reflecting a stronger commodity memory price outlook
We remain the most bullish in our earnings outlook for memory companies on the Street – since our report on memory supercycle published in September – given: (1) the surprisingly strong 2026F demand for commodity DRAM from AI servers, in addition to the strong HBM demand, and (2) the sharply increased 2026F commodity DRAM demand from conventional servers and SSD demand from both AI and non-AI servers, leading to memory customers commencing proactive purchases, with suppliers raising prices more than our previous forecasts. Data center expansion plans by global AI companies have exceeded expectations despite recent concerns about AI capex capability, and we expect additional government-led AI investments to continue globally, along with the US investment for the Genesis Mission for AI. Still, we expect meaningful memory supply increase to happen in 2028F at the earliest. We therefore reiterate that the memory supercycle should continue until at least 2027F, and revise up earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics (SEC; 005930 KS, Buy) and SK Hynix (000660 KS, Buy) to reflect the stronger-than-expected memory prices.

Strong commodity prices likely to drive memory players’ 4Q25F OP surprise
We forecast memory players’ 4Q25F OP to strongly beat the Bloomberg consensus based on greater-than-expected rise in commodity memory prices. DRAM prices for consumer products, including PC and mobile, have increased 30-40% q-q, and DRAM prices for servers, for which demand is tangibly growing, have increased 40-60% q-q, depending on the category, by our estimates.

Regarding NAND, while price increases for certain mobile applications have been relatively slow, we estimate that enterprise SSD prices will increase by 30-40% q-q in 4Q25F. Hence, our previous forecast of commodity DRAM’s average price growth of +25% q-q in 4Q25F appears conservative, and thus we revise up 4Q25F OP for SEC/Hynix by 22%/8% to KRW21.5tn/17.5tn, reflecting the stronger-than-expected memory price increase. SEC/Hynix’s commodity memory profitability has surpassed/is approaching their respective HBM profitability, in our view. We see room for an additional 20-30% price increase for commodity memory prices in 1H26F, and thus revise up our 2026F OP for SEC/Hynix by 21.5%/9.7% to KRW133tn/109tn (vs. Bloomberg consensus of KRW93tn/79tn).

Supply shortage likely to last until 2027F; suppliers can be flexible in product mix depending on each product’s profitability
Investors have already been monitoring memory players’ supply expansion efforts, but we think memory supply shortage will continue until at least 2027F, considering greenfield, brownfield, and upgrade plans until 2028. Memory companies have allocated capacity primarily to HBM so far, but we expect them to more flexibly produce commodities than before, as commodity profitability rapidly improves. This should also underpin their bargaining power for HBM price negotiations with ASIC customers in the future.


TSMC's revenue growth potential is expected to far exceed the market's previous expectations

Summary: Shares UBS analysis that TSMC earns $1–2B per GW of AI server buildout; $34.4B revenue opportunity from OpenAI deals alone, far exceeding prior market expectations.

Why is TSMC the one sweeping up the money in AI infrastructure? UBS sees it this way: TSMC will earn USD 1–2 billion per GW

Amid the global investment boom in cloud AI servers, TSMC, the leading large foundry, is facing an unprecedented growth opportunity.

According to the latest report from UBS, every 1GW server project brings TSMC a revenue opportunity of USD 1–2 billion, which corresponds to 1.0–1.5% of its expected 2025 sales. As OpenAI and multiple hyperscale cloud service providers have announced server build-out plans on the order of tens of gigawatts, TSMC’s revenue growth potential is expected to far exceed the market’s previous expectations.

The demand differences between different AI platforms are very pronounced

According to the report’s analysis, the total revenue that TSMC will actually generate from NVIDIA’s next-generation AI GPU platforms will gradually increase over time. For each 1GW server build-out, TSMC earns about USD 1.1 billion from the Blackwell Ultra/Rubin platform, and when the transition is made to the Rubin Ultra/Feynman platform, this figure rises to USD 1.4–1.9 billion.

This growth is the result of multiple factors acting in combination. The key drivers cited include migration to more advanced process nodes, an increase in the number of GPUs installed per rack, the application of advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS, and the potential transition to panel-level packaging (PLP) in 2028.

From a capacity consumption perspective, NVIDIA’s Blackwell Ultra requires about 3,500 wafers per month, of which xPU chips consume 2,300 wafers per month, CPUs 500 wafers per month, and networking chips 700 wafers per month. CoWoS packaging capacity demand comes to about 2,300 wafers per month.

Broadcom’s ASIC solutions show a striking advantage in terms of efficiency. Thanks to higher efficiency tailored to specific workloads, ASIC chips can drive higher chip demand than GPUs. The TPU v7p that Broadcom designed for Google requires about 4,900 wafers per month of N3 capacity per 1GW, a level far above NVIDIA’s 2,000–4,000 wafers per month.

On the basis of revenue share relative to rack value, ASIC solutions generate greater actual total revenue for TSMC, at as high as 10–11%. In contrast, GPU solutions are at the 4–6% level. Specifically, in the case of Google’s TPU v7p project, TSMC’s revenue opportunity per 1GW comes to USD 1.895 billion.

AMD’s AI GPU capacity demand is the lowest among the major players. The upcoming MI455 adopts a chiplet structure, so the N2 capacity required per 1GW is only about 1,000 wafers per month, resulting in a TSMC revenue opportunity of roughly USD 745 million.

The massive business opportunity created by a 1GW server build-out

The UBS report breaks down AI server investments in detail. To support a 1GW server build-out, TSMC needs to provide 2,000–5,000 wafers per month (kwpm) of capacity on advanced nodes such as N3 or N2, along with an additional 3,000–6,000 wafers per month of advanced CoWoS packaging capacity.

From a capital expenditure (capex) perspective, each 1GW project entails wafer fab equipment (WFE) investments of USD 1–2 billion for logic chip production, including both front-end capacity and CoWoS packaging capacity. This means that every time AI infrastructure is expanded, it directly translates into increased demand for TSMC capacity and higher capex.

The USD 34.4 billion revenue potential hidden in the OpenAI deal

UBS conducted a detailed estimate of the deals that OpenAI has already announced. The total scale of the deals OpenAI has signed with NVIDIA, AMD, and Google is 26GW, consisting of 10GW with NVIDIA, 6GW with AMD, and 10GW with Google.

Based on these deals, TSMC’s potential revenue amounts to USD 34.4 billion. Of this, USD 11.0 billion comes from NVIDIA, USD 4.5 billion from AMD, and USD 18.9 billion from Google. Assuming an operating margin of 40–45%, these projects could generate around USD 14.6 billion in operating profit for TSMC, clearly illustrating how the AI infrastructure build-out boom can powerfully boost TSMC’s earnings.

$TSM $AVGO $NVDA $AMD


UBS raised NVIDIA's total GPU production at TSMC to 6.9 million units in 2025 and 7.4 million units in 2026

Summary: UBS raises CoWoS demand forecasts for NVDA and AVGO; favors TSMC and ASE as key beneficiaries of AI packaging buildout.

UBS Raises CoWoS Demand Forecasts for NVIDIA and Broadcom, With Rubin and CPX as Key Growth Drivers

UBS (T. Arcuri, Oct 8, 2025)

UBS has raised its CoWoS demand forecasts for NVIDIA and Broadcom in its latest report. The firm had previously revised TSMC’s CoWoS capacity forecast for the end of 2026 from 100,000 wafers per month to 110,000 wafers per month.

For NVIDIA, UBS increased its 2025/2026 CoWoS demand estimates by 5% and 26%, respectively, based on three key factors:

1. Strong Blackwell shipment growth, expected to rise by about 30% QoQ in Q3 (previously 17%) and remain at 1.6–1.7 million units in Q4.

2. Clearer mass production trajectory for Rubin, starting in mid-2026.

3. The newly introduced CPX variant within the Rubin family, which will bring additional CoWoS packaging demand.

As a result, UBS raised NVIDIA’s total GPU production at TSMC to 6.9 million units in 2025 and 7.4 million units in 2026 (previously 6.5 million and 6.7 million).

For Broadcom, UBS also raised its 2026 CoWoS demand forecast for AI accelerators, reflecting stronger growth momentum from Google’s TPU v7p and OpenAI projects.

UBS noted that NVIDIA’s Rubin project on TSMC’s N3 process is progressing smoothly, with small-scale shipments to begin in Q2 2026 and mass production starting in Q3. Rubin’s trial production will be completed this month, and samples are expected to be distributed to supply-chain partners this quarter in preparation for mass production in the second half of the year. UBS lifted its 2026 production estimate for Rubin at TSMC from 1.3 million to 2.3 million units.

In addition, NVIDIA’s newly launched Rubin CPX version, which uses a single-GPU package with GDDR7 memory, is also believed to employ TSMC’s CoWoS packaging. The key advantage of this design lies in the use of embedded deep trench capacitors (eDTC), which enhance voltage stability by embedding capacitors into the interposer—thereby preventing GPU performance degradation. UBS estimates that with Rubin ramping up and CPX contributing, NVIDIA’s CoWoS demand will rise from 444,000 wafers in 2025 to 678,000 wafers in 2026.

On the investment side, UBS continues to favor TSMC as the leading cloud and edge AI foundry, benefiting from its moat in advanced process and packaging technologies. The report also highlights ASE (Advanced Semiconductor Engineering) as a key beneficiary in advanced packaging and testing. As cloud AI demand continues to expand, UBS expects significant opportunities for the advanced packaging and CoWoS equipment supply chain.

$NVDA $AVGO


UBS also raised its 2026 CoWoS demand forecast for AI accelerators, reflecting stronger growth momentum from Google's TPU v7p and OpenAI projects


UBS continues to favor TSMC as the leading cloud and edge AI foundry, benefiting from its moat in advanced process and packaging technologies


ASE (Advanced Semiconductor Engineering) as a key beneficiary in advanced packaging and testing


Summary: Global memory shortage is structural with 50% contract price upside in 6-9 months; SK Hynix best positioned via HBM/DRAM focus; Samsung and Micron supply-constrained near-term.

(Exclusive) 2026 Capacity Sold Out! CSPs Trigger Early "Two-Year LTA" War for Memory

The explosive growth of AI demand is accelerating the global memory market into an unprecedented shortage frenzy. Industry sources point out that with major memory manufacturers' 2026 production capacity almost fully booked, a full-year shortage is irreversible. Multiple hyperscale Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) are proposing Long Term Agreement (LTA) negotiations for one year or longer, extending the battlefront to 2027-2028 to lock in future capacity requirements for the next two years ahead of schedule.

The memory shortage presents an unprecedented level of "madness." With AI being the primary driver making servers the largest application outlet, and CSP giants wielding massive procurement funds, they fell into a panic buying spree in the second half of 2025. Consequently, companies are inclined to build higher inventories for 2026-2027, resulting in purchasing volumes far exceeding actual consumption.

Industry insiders revealed that memory manufacturers' expansion plans for 2026 are too slow to meet immediate needs, resulting in the entire year's capacity supply being nearly fully booked. This has prompted major CSPs to seek discussions with memory players early regarding 2027 supply capacity. Major CSPs from the US and China are accelerating their pace, conducting "bundled negotiations" that combine 2026 procurement volumes and pricing with subsequent purchasing targets.

This implies that the bargaining power of memory sellers has significantly increased, ensuring a continuous price hike in 2026. There will be no chance for price drops even in the second half of the year, reshaping the pricing model of the memory industry.

To avoid falling behind in the AI arms race, server operators are willing to offer higher premiums to secure capacity. As the main source of profit for original manufacturers, they are bound to become the priority customer group for supply. However, to qualify for long-term agreements, some CSP giants may propose more favorable conditions to persuade manufacturers—such as advance payments or funding equipment procurement—thereby locking in capacity for 2027-2028 ahead of time. It is reported that supply LTAs for 2027 could be finalized as early as the first quarter of 2026.

It is not just DRAM that is in severe shortage. Phison CEO K.S. Pua recently pointed out that NAND Flash prices are skyrocketing rapidly; there are even cases where suppliers have proposed price hikes but ultimately still have no stock to sell. He believes that the situation of "clients holding cash and asking manufacturers to start production" will happen very soon.

Server OEM operators also privately noted that while AI GPU supply or production yields are currently smooth with stable output, memory shortages have become the shipment bottleneck for the entire supply chain. There are even rumors in the industry of buyers frantically searching for stock with cash in hand. This will cause the memory industry to shift from the past business cycle model to a structural transformation of "securing orders first, then expanding production."

ADATA Technology Chairman Chen Li-bai also confirmed: "Currently, every major CSP is taking the lead in wanting to sign contracts exceeding one year."

However, only one or two major CSPs are likely to sign relatively long supply contracts. Other CSP operators will at most secure one-year contracts, while buyers outside of CSPs basically cannot sign any contracts.

It is understood that the few major CSPs currently signing long-term agreements mostly depend on faster decision-making in the second half of 2025. They realized early on that memory supply could not meet demand and responded quickly by requesting to sign contracts for one year or longer, yet only about 30% of CSP operators managed to secure LTA qualifications.

After all, memory suppliers cannot overcommit capacity. Chen Li-bai admitted that an LTA is just a dream; 90% of manufacturers cannot sign long-term agreements. Some operators with better relationships might negotiate once a quarter, but the majority can only negotiate monthly, or cannot even confirm supply status for one month later.

From the perspective of memory manufacturers, recent spot prices are already at an "abnormally high" level. While a correction in the future cannot be ruled out, contract prices remain far lower than spot prices. It is expected that there could still be room for a 50% price hike in the next 6 to 9 months.

According to current planning by memory manufacturers, SK Hynix has no plans to expand NAND wafer capacity in 2026, concentrating firepower on capital investment for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DRAM. This includes the new M15X plant in Cheongju, which is planned as a dedicated facility for HBM production, with production expected to start as early as the beginning of 2026.

However, Samsung Electronics and Micron are unlikely to have significant capacity contributions in the short term. New plant construction may not be completed until the second half of 2027. Coupled with equipment installation and the wafer production cycle, there will not only be a lack of new capacity in 2026, but output contribution in 2027 will also be relatively limited.

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https://t.co/hIvtpNrG36


NAND Flash prices are skyrocketing rapidly; there are even cases where suppliers have proposed price hikes but ultimately still have no stock to sell


SK Hynix has no plans to expand NAND wafer capacity in 2026, concentrating firepower on capital investment for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and DRAM. This includes the new M15X plant in Cheongju, which is planned as a dedicated facility for HBM production, with production expected to start as early as the beginning of 2026


Samsung Electronics and Micron are unlikely to have significant capacity contributions in the short term. New plant construction may not be completed until the second half of 2027


Summary: Shares J.P. Morgan's bullish AMD thesis: OpenAI deal adds $4–4.50 EPS, a 50–60% boost above 2027 consensus, positioning AMD to capture far larger AI GPU TAM share.

(J.P. Morgan) Investor Commentary on the AMD–OpenAI Deal

– Investors broadly welcomed the deal, calling it a major step for AMD to meaningfully expand its installed base in AI computing. In fact, the scale of the deal is impressive (about 60% the size of OpenAI’s NVDA contract) and effectively serves as a powerful “stamp of approval” for AMD’s Instinct GPUs by associating them directly with OpenAI.
Harlan estimates that the planned 6 GW deployment of AMD GPUs will drive roughly $35 – 38 billion in revenue on an annualized basis between 2027 and 2030, translating to an additional $30 – 35 billion per year of OpenAI-related revenue, equivalent to about $4.00–4.50 of incremental EPS—a 50–60% earnings boost over the current 2027 market consensus of around $7.60.

Investors I spoke with emphasized that this partnership is crucial for facilitating the Helios ramp-up and improving the competitiveness of ROCm (AMD’s software platform), while more importantly validating the technology and paving the way for broader adoption. Harlan added that this deal vividly demonstrates how enormous the demand for AI computing will be over the next several years, and that AMD is now positioned to capture a far larger share of the overall data-center GPU TAM than its current mid-single-digit percentage.

Opinions were divided on what this means for ASIC demand. Harlan noted that the ASIC roadmap remains separate, though some investors mentioned that ASIC programs could act as a pressure card in today’s tight GPU-pricing environment.

Early in the session, there was strong short covering, followed by some profit-taking from real-money investors as the stock rose (a pattern seen broadly across AI names). Most activity occurred through block trades between institutions (“through the pipes”). Overall investor sentiment, however, remained quite positive. Many said this was probably the best possible outcome AMD could hope for—they “can’t write a $100 billion check,” but they’d gladly accept a 10% dilution if it means a $600 share price.

Still, skeptics pointed out potential shareholder dilution and the possibility that part of the 6 GW deployment could overlap with revenues from the Stargate project, leading to some double counting concerns.

$AMD


we maintain our forecast for total GB200/300 rack shipments in 2025 at 28,000 units... We forecast GB200/300 rack shipments in 2026 to reach 60,000–70,000 units

Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley's bullish GB200/300 rack shipment outlook: 28K units in 2025, 60K–70K in 2026, no yield issues; implies sustained NVDA demand.

Morgan Stanley: GB200/300 rack shipment outlook maintained (28,000 units)

Based on industry supply chain channel checks, we maintain our forecast for total GB200/300 rack shipments in 2025 at 28,000 units.
Fourth-quarter shipments are expected to increase significantly to 14,000–15,000 units, representing a substantial rise compared with the 8,000–8,500 units shipped in the third quarter.

Rack production in October increased by approximately 3% month-over-month, which enhances confidence in achieving the fourth-quarter shipment target.

GB200 rack production is expected to continue through the first quarter of 2026, and GB300 production has already begun, with a stable ramp-up anticipated over the coming months.

During discussions with multiple supply chain vendors at the San Jose OCP Summit in mid-October, no specific yield issues related to GB300 were reported.

We forecast GB200/300 rack shipments in 2026 to reach 60,000–70,000 units.

$NVDA


Goldman raised its forecast for Alibaba Cloud's external revenue growth from 30% / 25% / 17% → 33% / 29% / 19%

Summary: Shares Goldman Sachs bullish revision on Alibaba: raised cloud revenue growth forecasts, RMB 460B CapEx base case, AI cloud triple-digit growth for 8 consecutive quarters.

Goldman Sachs: Major Upward Revision of Alibaba’s Capital Expenditure Outlook

In its October 13 report, Goldman Sachs stated that
Alibaba’s AI-related cloud revenue has achieved triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters,
reaching 20% of total cloud revenue in the June quarter.

Citing full-stack AI capabilities and the rapid surge in multimodal AI demand,
Goldman raised its forecast for Alibaba Cloud’s external revenue growth from
30% / 25% / 17% → 33% / 29% / 19%.

It also significantly increased its three-year CapEx forecast to RMB 460 billion($64.4B),
calling it one of the most aggressive projections on Wall Street.

Analysts believe this investment scale will strengthen Alibaba Cloud’s leadership in China’s AI-cloud market
while driving rapid international expansion.
By FY2028, international business is expected to contribute 25% of Alibaba Cloud’s external revenue.

Interestingly, Goldman’s analysts compared Amazon AWS and Google Cloud’s historical data,
concluding that Alibaba’s growth trajectory lags U.S. cloud giants by roughly two years —
a gap that coincides with the technological breakthroughs of ChatGPT (late 2022) and DeepSeek (January 2025).

Goldman estimates Alibaba’s current data-center capacity at 3–4 GW,
with plans to expand to 20 GW by 2032, implying about 2 GW of new capacity per year.
Assuming 1 GW ≈ 1 million GPUs, this expansion indicates massive capital investment over the next three years.

Regarding capital expenditure (CapEx), Goldman outlined three scenarios:
    • Base case: FY2026–2028 total CapEx RMB 460 billion, CapEx-to-Revenue conversion ratio 0.2–0.3
    • Optimistic case: Total CapEx RMB 550 billion, conversion ratio > 0.3
    • Pessimistic case: Total CapEx RMB 380 billion, conversion ratio < 0.2

$BABA


Summary: Long SK Hynix as largest holding, committed to holding through 2026.

@aric96748244 SK Hynix is currently my largest holding, and I plan to keep holding it through 2026.

@jukan05 Are you seeing $mu micron as a good pick as compare to sk hynix for 2026, not only considering the technical advancement and market share, but also market accessibility and fund inflow, and valuation expansion


I'm genuinely starting to think Google is going to eat Microsoft 365 alive

Summary: Google will take significant share from Microsoft 365; Copilot unlikely to fend off Google's enterprise push.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

I’m genuinely starting to think Google is going to eat Microsoft 365 alive.

Can Copilot really fend off Google’s invasion? https://t.co/a1T4D18pAU


Google is going to eat Microsoft 365 alive


Summary: Goldman shares constructive WFE outlook for 2026; AMAT and LRCX benefit from memory tightness, TER draws interest with Titan, TSMC CapEx rising 10% YoY.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Goldman Sachs: Key Takeaways from SEMICON West 2025

We attended the SEMICON West conference held in Phoenix, Arizona, on October 7–8, meeting with various industry players including AMAT, TER, ENTG, and MKSI. Overall, we came away from the event with a gradually more positive view on 2026 WFE (Wafer Fab Equipment) growth, consistent with our recent WFE outlook update. Below we summarize the key industry insights and company-level highlights.

⸻

Industry Takeaways

1. 2026 WFE Outlook
While most companies avoided providing specific figures for their 2026 WFE outlook, many indicated expectations for improvement in the memory segment, even though there has been no notable change in current order trends. We estimate that the WFE market will grow 9% YoY to about USD 120 billion in 2026, driven by strength in leading-edge logic, HBM, and NAND.

2. Leading-Edge Logic
As AI data center build-outs continue to expand, the leading-edge logic segment is expected to maintain growth momentum into next year. The transition to the N2 (2nm) node is likely to support this investment trend. Our colleague Bruce Lu projects TSMC’s 2026 CapEx at USD 44 billion, up about 10% YoY.

3. DRAM
The DRAM investment cycle should remain active as competition in the HBM market intensifies and demand grows for solutions such as 4F² that require higher capital intensity. Equipment suppliers with large memory exposure—such as Applied Materials and Lam Research—are expected to benefit from the ongoing supply tightness.

4. NAND
Although companies did not highlight additional NAND equipment orders, our channel checks suggest utilization rates at suppliers are ramping rapidly. This implies more equipment upgrades through 2026.

5. Testing
As chip complexity rises, innovative solutions are needed to shorten test times and reduce customers’ time-to-market. Teradyne recently introduced its new AI-oriented product, Titan, which features excellent thermal management capabilities and is drawing strong customer interest.

6. Materials and Wafer Consumables
Most industry participants maintained a relatively positive outlook for the consumables business in 2026, particularly in leading-edge logic and DRAM. However, this optimism is partially offset by the weak utilization in legacy logic and analog semiconductor segments.

⸻

Company-Specific Highlights

Applied Materials (AMAT)
Management maintained a constructive stance on its competitive position across logic, DRAM, and advanced packaging. While avoiding specific commentary on 2026 WFE figures, they emphasized that there is typically a time lag between market demand signals and actual equipment orders.

They expect their market share to expand through the transition to 4F² DRAM, as 3D structures become more critical—requiring additional material engineering steps such as deposition and etch.

Regarding China, management noted that despite comprehensive export controls, AMAT’s China business remains focused on ICAPS (IoT, communications, automotive, power, and sensors)—areas still permitted for trade—and expressed confidence in competing effectively within those boundaries.

They also highlighted progress in hybrid bonding technology, stating that customer qualification is underway and adoption is expected to begin in the logic market first, followed later by the DRAM segment.

$AMAT $LRCX


Teradyne recently introduced its new AI-oriented product, Titan, which features excellent thermal management capabilities and is drawing strong customer interest


Bruce Lu projects TSMC's 2026 CapEx at USD 44 billion, up about 10% YoY


U.S. Brokerage Firms Raise Target Prices ... major U.S. brokers revised their EPS estimates for 2025–2027 upward to $63.6 / $76 / $102.9, and simultaneously increased their target prices based on a 2026E PER of 22x

Summary: Shares/endorses major U.S. brokers raising TSMC EPS estimates and target prices post Q3 beat, with CoWoS expansion and N2 margin upside.

■ 2330 TSMC: U.S. Brokerage Firms Raise Target Prices

TSMC’s Q3 gross profit margin (GPM) and EPS exceeded expectations from major U.S. securities firms, and its Q4 revenue and GPM outlook also surpassed market forecasts.
As a result, the company raised both its full-year revenue guidance and capital expenditure (CAPEX).

Following the earnings release, major U.S. brokers revised their EPS estimates for 2025–2027 upward to $63.6 / $76 / $102.9, and simultaneously increased their target prices based on a 2026E PER of 22x.

Management stated that they plan to significantly expand CoWoS production capacity next year, noting that demand is broadening beyond AI-related applications.

The company emphasized its core strategy of “Moore’s Law 2.0,” highlighting that continuous progress in both front-end process technology and back-end packaging is essential.
Currently, advanced packaging accounts for about 10% of total revenue.

Brokerages also project that wafer prices will rise by 3–5% in 2025, and assess that the profit margin structure of the N2 process will be superior to that of N3.

早安！10/17 外電綜合整理

- 2330台積電: 美系升目標
3Q 毛利率/EPS優於美系大行預估，4Q營收/毛利率展望亦優於預期，同時上調今年營收目標及資本支出。美系大行會後上調25-27年EPS至$63.6/$76/$102.9，以明年22xPE評價，同步升目標。

管理層表示全力擴充明年的 CoWoS 產能，以縮小供給缺口。CoWoS


It's still a long way before the cycle reaches its peak.

Summary: Author endorses Morgan Stanley's AI-driven memory super-cycle thesis; cycle still far from peak.

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

“It’s still a long way before the cycle reaches its peak.” https://t.co/KGnSmxmaav

Morgan Stanley: This memory “super cycle” will far surpass the historical peak

Morgan Stanley pointed out that a new memory “super cycle” driven by AI has already arrived, and its intensity and logic are completely different from any previous cycle.

Morgan Stanley stated that, https://t.co/rstNpd3NdK


Summary: Shares analyst call: Samsung and SK Hynix earnings to 2x+ by 2028 AI semi peak; HBM drives structural upcycle, no downturn in earnings or share prices until then.

“The peak of the AI semiconductor cycle will come in 2028… Samsung and SK Hynix’s earnings will double over the next three years”

The artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor cycle is expected to reach its peak in 2028, and by then, the earnings of Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK Hynix (000660) are projected to more than double from current levels.

At a press briefing hosted by the Korea Exchange on the 14th, Noh Geun-chang, head of research at Hyundai Motor Securities, said, “Considering NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s comment that data center investments will reach $1 trillion (about KRW 1,427 trillion) by 2028, it’s highly likely that AI semiconductor investments will peak around that time.”

Noh continued, “As data center investments concentrate during this period, the earnings of domestic semiconductor firms have room to at least double over the next three years,” adding that transistor computing performance and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) capacity will expand by about 2.5 times compared to today. He also stated, “Given the strong earnings visibility through 2028, current concerns over high valuations are not particularly worrisome.”

He added, “Semiconductor stocks are unlikely to see a downturn in either earnings or share prices until 2028,” and noted that “small and mid-cap semiconductor stocks will only see a rotation once the sector enters a breather phase.”

While the semiconductor upturn this year has been driven by commodity DRAM, he forecast that from next year, HBM and advanced foundries will take center stage. He explained, “HBM is not a simple memory product but a made-to-order item, signaling the semiconductor industry’s shift from a ‘commodity’ business to a structurally growing industry,” emphasizing that “both Samsung and SK Hynix are positioned at the core of this cycle and will continue to achieve record-high earnings.”

Noh further pointed out that collaborations among global players such as OpenAI, Broadcom, SoftBank, and Oracle are broadening HBM distribution channels, a development favorable to Samsung Electronics. “The AI ecosystem has so far been led by NVIDIA, TSMC, and SK Hynix,” he said, “but as OpenAI partners with SoftBank and Oracle, a new current is forming — one that opens fresh growth opportunities for Samsung.”

Finally, he projected, “By next year, memory for AI servers will account for 70% of the entire DRAM market,” adding that “despite weakening consumer demand, structural growth centered on high-performance computing (HPC) will persist, and the expansion of inference services will drive a simultaneous recovery in demand for solid-state drives (SSDs).”

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https://t.co/M4xma9ohfb


Summary: BofA reiterates Buy on NVDA (undervalued, EPS ~$8 in 2026 at 24x P/E), AVGO, AMD, LRCX, KLAC, AMAT; AI skepticism seen as contrarian positive, not fundamental risk.

BofA: The “AI bubble” narrative is actually a positive for semiconductor stocks, helps avoid overcrowding, and Nvidia is undervalued

On the recent “AI bubble” narrative, Bank of America presented a clear contrarian view: it is a “reverse positive” for semiconductor stocks, helping to prevent excessive crowding. There is a clear undervaluation in Nvidia, with the share price failing to reflect its true growth potential.

In its latest report, Bank of America stated that the widespread skepticism about AI capital expenditures at this point is not a risk but rather a “reverse positive” that ensures this track can deliver sustained returns. Such skepticism helps prevent excessive crowding in the sector.

The bank believes that the recent volatility in AI semiconductor stocks stems from fixable macro factors rather than a deterioration in the fundamentals of the AI spending cycle. In fact, given the strong performance of AI-related complementary industries and Nvidia’s optimistic outlook, underlying demand remains solid.

Bank of America added that doubts about OpenAI’s grand plans are a narrow and fragmentary argument. What truly drives AI investment is the defensive strategy of large tech companies. In particular, it pointed out that the current share price of industry leader Nvidia does not reflect its true growth potential and is clearly undervalued.

AI skepticism: a healthy “contrarian positive” signal
Although large AI semiconductor stocks fell by an average of 7–8% last week, Bank of America does not see this as a sign of problems in the AI spending cycle. Rather, the price moves were triggered by macro factors—concerns about a U.S. government shutdown, weak employment data, tariff turmoil, and misunderstandings of comments related to OpenAI—all of which are fixable short-term noise, not fundamental negatives.

The real fundamental signals are quite the opposite. The report highlighted the strength of AI-related complementary areas—for example, memory and small-/mid-cap optical module stocks rose 14% last week—indicating that AI infrastructure build-out is rolling out across the board.

It also assessed that Nvidia’s recently disclosed outlook at GTC for its data center business in fiscal years 2025/26—exceeding $500 billion—further proves that AI demand is strong and persistent.

Therefore, Bank of America believes that widespread skepticism actually helps keep the market cool-headed, and it reaffirmed its “Buy” ratings on the core beneficiaries of AI build-out. These include Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD in data centers, and Lam Research (LRCX), KLA (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT) in semiconductor equipment.

Rebutting the “AI spending is unsustainable” critique: defensive investment by Big Tech is key
A common bearish narrative in the market is: “If OpenAI can’t justify its $1.4 trillion long-term commitment, then AI stocks must be overvalued.” Bank of America dismisses this as a “lazy and out-of-context argument.”

First, OpenAI’s grand plan has not yet materialized and will be constrained by real-world factors such as power and data center space. More importantly, most current AI spending is not coming from startups but from profitable, publicly listed hyperscalers.

For these tech giants, Bank of America views upgrading from traditional CPU computing to accelerated computing as not only “mission-critical” but also a “defensive” investment.

The report cites Google as an example: its $92 billion in capital expenditures is “defending” the leadership of a search business that generates over $200 billion, preventing users from shifting to emerging competitors such as ChatGPT and Perplexity.

At the same time, private AI companies such as OpenAI (with over 1 million commercial customers) and Anthropic (with over 300,000 commercial customers) are rapidly attracting enterprise users, which in turn continues to pressure publicly listed software and IaaS providers to increase AI investment. Therefore, the core drivers of AI spending are solid and powerful.

Nvidia: not a bubble, but undervalued
The report emphasizes that Nvidia’s stock is highly attractive, and the current valuation reflects only a “very cautious AI deployment.”

Based on approximately $500 billion in data center orders for fiscal years 2025/26 recently disclosed by Nvidia, Bank of America estimates the company’s EPS could reach about $8 in 2026.

This implies that a company with revenue/EPS growing 50%/70% annually is trading at a P/E of just 24x—roughly in line with the market average—meaning the valuation is “not high.”

To further illustrate its potential, the report presents a scenario assumption:

Even if by 2030 AI capital expenditures reach only 50% of Nvidia’s projected $3–4 trillion range, the company’s EPS at that time could exceed $40 per share. This would imply a forward P/E of under 5x at the current share price.

Bank of America regards this number as “beyond common sense,” using it to reaffirm the following view: despite media headlines being filled with bubble narratives, Nvidia’s stock is in fact undervalued.

$NVDA


reaffirmed its "Buy" ratings on the core beneficiaries of AI build-out. These include Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD in data centers


reaffirmed its "Buy" ratings on the core beneficiaries of AI build-out. These include … Lam Research (LRCX), KLA (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT) in semiconductor equipment


reaffirmed its "Buy" ratings on the core beneficiaries of AI build-out. These include … KLA (KLAC)


reaffirmed its "Buy" ratings on the core beneficiaries of AI build-out. These include … Applied Materials (AMAT) in semiconductor equipment


NVIDIA accounts for only 30% of global CAPEX in calendar year 2025. There's still plenty of room for NVIDIA to expand.

Summary: Bullish NVDA: only 30% of global CAPEX share in 2025 leaves significant room for further expansion.

NVIDIA accounts for only 30% of global CAPEX in calendar year 2025.
There’s still plenty of room for NVIDIA to expand. https://t.co/ruYayp0bP6

UBS’s Dissection of NVIDIA’s GTC

Aside from several new partnerships (detailed below), NVIDIA’s (NVDA) latest demand guidance indicates that the market’s current earnings expectations remain significantly underestimated.
This view is also supported by recent findings from supply https://t.co/8CBVwwpPGL


Summary: Taiwan AI server supply chain (Quanta, Wistron, Foxconn, Pegatron) set for unusually strong 2025 Q4 and 2026 driven by Nvidia GB300 demand, breaking seasonal patterns.

Nvidia AI servers drive strong electronics demand, breaking seasonal downturn in 2026

With demand for AI servers accelerating, Taiwan's electronics supply chain is preparing for an unusually strong fourth quarter in 2025 and a 2026 first half that shows little sign of the traditional slowdown.

Quanta Computer says shipments of its next-generation AI servers will begin ramping sharply from the fourth quarter of 2025 and gain momentum through the first quarter of 2026. Wistron, another major supplier, similarly expects its first-quarter 2026 performance to match what is typically the year's high point: the fourth quarter.

In past years, without the tailwind from AI servers, downstream electronics makers would see customers pull back orders after November, with weakness often lasting into the second quarter. But with AI infrastructure demand running hot, those seasonal patterns appear to be fading.

Supply-chain executives say much of the strength stems from Nvidia's GB300 server cabinets, which will not reach meaningful production levels until late 2025. As cloud customers transition rapidly to higher-end systems, expanded chip output is expected to lift demand throughout the ecosystem. The first quarter of 2026, they say, could become the strongest slow season in history.

Quanta expects volume shipments of new AI server platforms to surge in early 2026, followed by another refresh cycle in the second half of the year. Those newer systems carry higher average selling prices, the company noted, suggesting even stronger revenue momentum later in 2026. Taken together, Quanta anticipates a rare scenario: a first half that is not soft, and an even stronger second half.

Wistron expects its revenue in the first quarter of 2026 to remain on par with the fourth quarter of 2025, with sequential growth anticipated across the remainder of the year. According to President and CEO Jeff Lin, the company recorded triple-digit growth in its AI server business in both 2024 and 2025. Lin noted that “no one would believe” forecasts of another year of triple-digit expansion in 2026, given the elevated base. Still, he added that double-digit growth remains well within reach.

Hon Hai Technology Group (Foxconn) is similarly upbeat. Chairman Young Liu said AI's importance will rise sharply in 2026, with deeper collaborations expected with major North American cloud providers and a broader range of solution offerings. He identified AI servers and AI cabinets as Foxconn's most critical growth engines for the year.

North America's five largest cloud service providers are projected to spend close to $600 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 — much of it earmarked for AI data-center expansion. Foxconn, citing that figure, believes the market for AI server cabinets could at least double.

The company expects its AI cabinet shipments to jump threefold in the third quarter of 2025 and continue growing at a high double-digit pace in the fourth quarter, as earlier testing and yield bottlenecks are resolved. Growth should extend into the first quarter of 2026, although the year-over-year slope will flatten due to the high base effect.

To meet soaring demand, Foxconn is investing in sovereign AI projects across the United States, Taiwan, and Japan, while continuing to develop platforms spanning GPU and ASIC architectures. The company expects its market share — roughly 40 percent today — to rise further in 2026.

Foxconn also plans to extend its value chain downstream, moving from server components and full-system assembly into turnkey data-center system integration (SI/EPC). It is also pushing modular data-center (MDC) deployments, which it says carry higher-than-average margins. Benefits from those initiatives should begin to appear in 2026.

Pegatron, despite posting strong third-quarter 2025 results, remains under pressure at the operating-profit level. But President & CEO Kuang-Chih Cheng said the company's 2026 product mix will undergo a meaningful shift as its AI-related server business expands. With AI server demand robust, Pegatron expects a resilient fourth quarter and stronger growth in 2026.

Pegatron has started shipping Nvidia's GB200 and GB300 systems in the second half of this year, boosting revenue. Its current customer base mainly includes mid-size and smaller enterprises, but the company is also working with regional sovereign AI players and emerging data-center operators, and is in discussions with top-tier cloud providers.

To support that growth, Pegatron is expanding capacity worldwide. Beyond its existing Taoyuan facility, it has acquired two additional factory buildings, converting most of the space into server production lines. Its Mexico plant offers L1–L11 manufacturing capability, while a newly built Texas facility, focused on later-stage assembly, will support L6–L11 production beginning in the first quarter of 2026. Pegatron expects that additional capacity to help it capture orders from major cloud providers next year.

$NVDA

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https://t.co/57tuJDcUW8


Quanta expects volume shipments of new AI server platforms to surge in early 2026, followed by another refresh cycle in the second half of the year

Quanta Computer listed on TWSE as 2382.TW


Wistron expects its revenue in the first quarter of 2026 to remain on par with the fourth quarter of 2025, with sequential growth anticipated across the remainder of the year


Foxconn believes the market for AI server cabinets could at least double


Pegatron expects a resilient fourth quarter and stronger growth in 2026


Samsung had achieved the best results in the memory industry in terms of operating speed and power efficiency… a green light has been turned on for Samsung Electronics' supply of NVIDIA HBM4 in the first half of next year… the volume of HBM4 Samsung is required to supply next year by NVIDIA far exceeded internal expectations

Summary: Samsung HBM4 rated best among Big Three in NVIDIA tests, green-lit for H1 supply with volumes exceeding internal expectations; bullish for Samsung earnings.

[Exclusive] Samsung’s HBM4 Rated ‘Best’ Among the Big Three Memory Makers in NVIDIA Test…Green Light for Supply Next Year

Samsung Electronics’ HBM4 is said to have received the highest score in tests for NVIDIA’s next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator “Vera Rubin,” set to be released next year.

According to the semiconductor industry on the 21st, an NVIDIA-related team visited Samsung Electronics last week to receive an update on the progress of HBM4 SiP (System in Package) testing. At the meeting, it was shared that Samsung had achieved the best results in the memory industry in terms of operating speed and power efficiency.

Accordingly, a green light has been turned on for Samsung Electronics’ supply of NVIDIA HBM4 in the first half of next year. It is reported that the volume of HBM4 Samsung is required to supply next year by NVIDIA far exceeded internal expectations. This is also expected to significantly help improve Samsung’s earnings.

Samsung is said to be planning to officially sign a supply contract in the first quarter of next year, taking into account the expansion pace and production capacity of its Pyeongtaek P4 production line. It is then expected to begin full-scale supply from the second quarter.

Samsung says it cannot officially confirm matters related to NVIDIA’s tests. However, a Samsung official said, “Unlike with HBM3E, the overall mood within the development team is that we are taking the lead in HBM4 development,” adding, “We expect to achieve meaningful results next year.”

Of course, SK hynix completed preparations for mass production of HBM4 at the end of September, putting it about three months ahead of Samsung. In particular, SK hynix is known to be supplying paid samples to NVIDIA, and is thus effectively considered to have entered mass production. However, considering that there was a one-year gap during the HBM3E mass-production phase, the gap has narrowed rapidly.

In particular, since full-scale mass production is expected to take place in the second quarter of next year, Samsung—which scored highly in SiP—may increase its supply volume even further.

SiP refers to a technology that integrates multiple semiconductor chips into a single package. In the case of HBM4, it means that the graphics processing unit (GPU), memory semiconductors, interposer, power chips, and the like are all included in one package. In the semiconductor industry, the SiP test is interpreted as the final gate for verifying mass production—checking whether factors such as speed, heat generation, and power signals are within controllable levels.

Samsung recently regained the No. 2 spot in the HBM market from Micron in just three quarters. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research on the 21st, based on third-quarter revenue, Samsung’s HBM market share was 22%, placing it second after SK hynix (57%). Micron followed in third with 21%, behind Samsung.

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https://t.co/0BrkSE4B9o


I project that Apple will raise the prices of its products, including the iPhone, within the first half of next year... this will lead to reduced shareholder returns

Summary: Bearish AAPL: expiring LTAs expose Apple to memory price surge, cash buffer will reduce shareholder returns, product price hikes coming H1 next year.

What I find hard to understand is that the sell-side and the market are significantly overestimating Apple's supply chain management capabilities.

In my view, Apple is also likely to take a significant hit from this memory price surge. The LTAs (Long-Term Agreements) that Apple previously secured are already expiring.

According to my supply chain channel checks, Samsung and SK Hynix are planning to raise memory prices for Apple starting next January.

Folks, if you are planning to buy electronics, buy them right now. This is the cheapest they will be.

$AAPL

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Of course, Apple sits on a massive pile of cash, which will serve as a strong buffer to withstand this memory price surge.

However, while this may be beneficial for expanding market share (based on the logic that Apple uses its cash to offset product cost increases), I believe everyone is overlooking the inevitable fact that this will lead to reduced shareholder returns.

Finally, I project that Apple will raise the prices of its products, including the iPhone, within the first half of next year.


Summary: Long BTC for the long term.

@Tientientien121 Japan’s rate hikes won’t hurt equities, and I think Bitcoin is worth holding for the long term.

@jukan05 What are your thoughts on ETH and BTC?
Also, how do you think Japan’s interest rate hike on December 19 will affect the U.S. stock market?


Summary: Samsung finalizes HBM4 supply to Nvidia, ramps 1c DRAM to 200k wafers/month; author shares bullish thesis on Samsung's DRAM recovery and HBM market recapture.

Samsung finalizes HBM4 supply to Nvidia… begins expanding 1c DRAM

The 10-nanometer (nm)-class 6th-generation DRAM (hereinafter 1c DRAM) production capacity that Samsung Electronics aims to secure by 2026—200,000 wafers per month on an input basis—is a considerable scale, approaching one-third of the company’s total DRAM output. It is no exaggeration to say that the center of gravity of Samsung’s DRAM will shift to 1c next year.

Samsung Electronics’ moves are aimed at the artificial intelligence (AI) market. First of all, its confidence in recapturing the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market is seen as having led to this production capacity investment.

Samsung Electronics has struggled to supply HBM to Nvidia. Nvidia is the world’s No.1 in AI semiconductor chips built by combining graphics processing units (GPUs) with HBM.

However, because Samsung failed to deliver HBM in a timely manner, its leadership in the DRAM market also weakened. As HBM is manufactured by vertically stacking DRAM, an increase in HBM sales must be accompanied by an increase in DRAM shipments.

From the first to the third quarter of this year, Samsung Electronics ceded the No.1 spot in DRAM market share to SK hynix. Demand for HBM has surged due to AI infrastructure investment, but Samsung’s response lagged behind that of its competitors.

Samsung traced the primary cause back to the underlying DRAM. Judging that DRAM quality directly translates into HBM competitiveness, it embarked on an extensive design overhaul.

1c DRAM is the fruit of these efforts. It is now being recognized internally for its productivity. Yields are around 70%, and stable production (yields of 80–90%) is imminent. The yield of HBM4 produced with 1c DRAM is also understood to have exceeded 50%.

After this period of hard reflection, Samsung Electronics has now secured HBM4 supply to Nvidia. It plans to begin supplying initial volumes from the fourth quarter of this year. With an explosive surge in HBM4 demand virtually assured, the company has jumped into securing 1c DRAM production capacity.

Demand for server, PC, and mobile DRAM has also driven Samsung’s investments. Server DRAM demand is skyrocketing due to increased AI data center investment. As data center operators competitively invest in infrastructure to implement AI services, server DRAM prices are also surging.

The PC and mobile markets, whose growth had slowed, are also stirring again—thanks to on-device AI. As the trend of implementing AI directly on laptops and smartphones without connecting to the network spreads, it is pulling up DRAM demand.

To run AI computation on the device itself, large-capacity memory is essential. That means far more DRAM is required. PCs and mobiles are also expected to become one of the pillars of DRAM demand, contributing to a supply shortage.

Fundamentally, it is this strong demand for high-performance memory that has driven Samsung to increase the share of 1c DRAM production. On top of that, the fact that 1c DRAM is a differentiated weapon unique to Samsung has further accelerated the pace.

Samsung has decided to build HBM with 1c DRAM while its competitors are using 1b DRAM. Having fallen behind in response, it is aiming to turn the tables with a generation-ahead product. It appears the company is massively expanding production capacity to upend the market with 1c DRAM.

An industry insider said, “Samsung Electronics has led the market by leveraging its formidable production capacity compared with competitors,” adding, “There is a high likelihood that this strategy will be replayed in 1c DRAM as well.”

Preparation for 1c production is proceeding through both capacity expansion and process conversion. Capacity expansion is centered on Pyeongtaek Plant 4 (P4), where equipment move-in and installation (setup) are currently in full swing.

Process conversion will be done by changing 10-nanometer-class 1st to 3rd-generation (1x, 1y, 1z) DRAM lines into 1c manufacturing lines. This is a tech migration. In this case, existing line equipment is utilized as much as possible and only essential equipment is newly brought in. This enables the rapid establishment of DRAM manufacturing lines and allows the company to increase its speed in responding to the market.

The effect of cost reduction relative to investment is also significant. It can also be read as a determination to realize a “super gap” by reducing production of older-generation DRAM—where China’s chase has been fierce—and concentrating on next-generation DRAM. Tech migration is said to be proceeding simultaneously across each line.

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https://t.co/vOGCVt4gw2


Summary: Intekplus entering TSMC CoWoS inspection equipment qualification threatens KLA's exclusive supply position; success would erode KLAC's market share.

Korean Local Semiconductor Equipment Company Enters TSMC CoWoS Equipment Qualification Testing; Success Could Impact KLA

Intekplus is attempting to enter TSMC’s advanced packaging ecosystem with its semiconductor visual inspection equipment.

According to industry sources on the 9th, Intekplus began the quality evaluation of TSMC’s “Chip on Wafer on Substrate (CoWoS)” visual inspection equipment last month through a Taiwanese outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) company.

The customer is presumed to be ASE, the world’s largest OSAT company. ASE handles most of TSMC’s advanced packaging volume.

Following its supply of the six-sided visual inspection equipment “iPIS-HX Series” to Samsung Electronics’ advanced packaging sector, the company has now turned its focus to TSMC. The equipment currently under delivery and evaluation is a customized model optimized for CoWoS.

CoWoS is a packaging technology that places processors such as GPUs on a substrate and connects them to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) through an interposer. NVIDIA’s AI accelerators adopt this CoWoS approach.

As global foundry and advanced packaging demand centered on AI semiconductors continues to concentrate on TSMC, and investments to expand CoWoS production capacity accelerate, Intekplus is expected to benefit if it enters the supply chain.

The company expects to begin mass production supply next year. Currently, CoWoS inspection equipment is exclusively supplied by U.S.-based KLA.

Previously, Intekplus was recognized for its technical capabilities after directly supplying TSMC with its “ISIS-NTV” automatic optical inspection (AOI) equipment for flip-chip ball grid array (FC-BGA) substrates last year.

A company official stated, “The equipment quality evaluation is expected to take at least six months,” adding, “We cannot confirm specific customer information.”

$KLAC

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https://t.co/BYvr8zK2vL


Summary: Shares Citi Buy reiteration on Samsung Electronics with PT raised to ₩145,000 on AI inference memory demand and sharply higher 2026 OP estimate of ₩80.1T.

Samsung Electronics (005930.KS)
Regaining Market Position with OP Upside from AI Inference Memory Demand

⸻

CITI’s View

Citi raises its 2026 operating profit (OP) estimate for Samsung Electronics to ₩80.1 trillion.
This revision reflects expectations that, following the aggressive AI investments by U.S. hyperscalers, Chinese hyperscalers will also accelerate their AI inference infrastructure build-out.
In addition, the rapid surge in tokenized data generated by AI agents is expected to deepen the shortage of commodity memory.
Given Samsung’s solid market position in server DDR5, GDDR7, and eSSD, the company is expected to benefit directly from the expansion of AI inference memory demand.
The target price is raised from ₩133,000 to ₩145,000, with a Buy rating maintained.

⸻

Memory Business: Core Beneficiary of AI Inference Demand

With the memory market strengthening on the back of aggressive AI investments by U.S. hyperscalers,
Citi projects that Chinese hyperscalers will also initiate large-scale investments to prepare for AI inference.

As a result, demand for high-performance memory products such as server DDR5, GDDR7, SOCAMM2, and eSSD is expected to rise,
driving Samsung Electronics’ earnings recovery in 4Q25 and 2026.

⸻

2026 Global Memory ASP Outlook
    • DRAM: +37% YoY (from +25%)
    • NAND: +39% YoY (from +23%)

Citi revises up its 2026 DRAM average selling price (ASP) growth forecast from +25% to +37%,
and NAND from +23% to +39%.

The upward revision is based on:
    1. A sharp increase in demand for AI inference memory solutions in China, and
    2. AI agents’ token generation outpacing bit supply growth.

Accordingly, the shortage of commodity memory is expected to intensify further,
likely extending beyond DRAM to NAND as well.
The acceleration of AI inference and token generation is projected to trigger additional NAND demand,
leading both DRAM and NAND ASPs to rise +37% and +39% YoY, respectively, in 2026.

⸻

2026 Operating Profit Forecast: ₩80.1 Trillion

Samsung Electronics’ 2026 operating profit has been revised up from ₩61.5 trillion to ₩80.1 trillion,
reflecting expectations of stronger-than-anticipated memory price increases driven by
tight commodity memory supply and surging AI inference memory demand.
    • 2026 Semiconductor OP: ₩63.0 trillion (vs. ₩21.6 trillion in 2025, a sharp increase)
    • Smartphone shipments: 229 million in 2025 → 232 million in 2026 (+1%)
→ Supported by successful launches of new foldable and flagship models
    •    2026E OP by division:
    •    Semiconductor: ₩63.0 trillion
    •    Mobile: ₩12.7 trillion
    •    Display: ₩3.1 trillion
    •    CE (Consumer Electronics): ₩0.9 trillion

⸻

Target Price Raised to ₩145,000 / Rating: Buy Maintained

Citi has raised its 2026E/2027E operating profit estimates by 30% and 25%, respectively,
to reflect earnings upside from incremental AI inference demand in China
and the explosive growth of tokenized data generated by AI agents.

Based on 2026E EV/EBITDA SOTP analysis,
Citi raises its target price to ₩145,000 (from ₩133,000)
and reiterates its Buy rating.


Summary: Shares rumor of ABF substrate price hikes (25% special-spec, 10–20% others) with supply shortages to 2027H1; Kinsus and Nan Ya PCB are direct beneficiaries.

Kinsus Interconnect Technology 3189.TW Taiwan substrate

(Rumor)

ABF price hike expected at the end of this month — Kinsus / Nandem (Nan Ya PCB)
Special-spec ABF products will see a 25% price increase, while other categories will rise by 10–20%.
The companies expect supply shortages to continue until the first half of 2027, and the upcoming price hike will be implemented in one go.

Currently, all ABF production capacity at Nandem’s four factories has been fully reserved by NVIDIA,
meaning there is no available capacity left until the new plant is completed by the end of next year.

As a result, the market is expected to enter a price hike and supply shortage cycle,
similar to what Nanya Technology experienced in the past.

傳
ABF月底調漲 景碩/南電
ABF特殊規格產品調整25%、其餘10-20%不等
公司預期缺貨缺到2027年H1，漲價會一次調整到位
南電目前四個廠ABF產能全被輝達包下來
目前全部無產能可用，要等到明年底廠房蓋好
將進入漲價缺貨循環，比照南亞科辦理

 #零級分


all ABF production capacity at Nandem's four factories has been fully reserved by NVIDIA, meaning there is no available capacity left until the new plant is completed by the end of next year

Nan Ya PCB (NYPCB) listed on TWSE as 8046.TW


Samsung has staked its competitiveness on the HBM market and is beginning to see tangible results. The yield of its HBM4-grade 1c DRAM has reportedly reached around 50%

Summary: Samsung's aggressive EUV expansion and 50% HBM4 yield progress bullish for Samsung; ASML tagged as the EUV equipment supplier beneficiary.

[Exclusive] Samsung Electronics Bets Big on EUV in Memory—Counters SK hynix with Facility Investment

Following its adoption of the latest EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography equipment for its foundry (contract manufacturing) business, Samsung Electronics is now expanding its production capacity in memory as well, having secured five additional EUV lithography machines dedicated to its memory division.

Coinciding with the arrival of the “memory supercycle,” the competition between Samsung and SK hynix is heating up as both companies ramp up investments in semiconductor manufacturing equipment to seize leadership in the next-generation DRAM and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) markets—core enablers of the AI era.

According to semiconductor industry sources on the 17th, Samsung Electronics has decided to introduce two of the latest “High-NA (High Numerical Aperture) EUV” machines for its foundry business, and will additionally bring in five regular EUV systems exclusively for its memory division.

The strategy aims to establish memory-dedicated production lines to maximize efficiency and specialization.

EUV equipment is essential for sub-10-nanometer ultra-fine manufacturing processes. The High-NA EUV machine is a next-generation system used for sub-2-nanometer advanced nodes. Semiconductor manufacturers are competing to draw ever-finer circuit patterns to produce chips that are both higher-performance and lower-power. EUV lithography uses much shorter wavelengths than conventional technologies, allowing for extremely fine patterning and dramatically increasing chip density several-fold.

Each regular EUV machine costs about 300 billion KRW, while a High-NA EUV system is estimated at around 550 billion KRW. Samsung plans to invest roughly 2.6 trillion KRW solely in EUV equipment as part of its preparations for the next upcycle.

Five EUV Systems Dedicated to Memory — A Preemptive Investment for the Supercycle

An industry insider explained, “Until now, the Pyeongtaek campus shared EUV equipment between the foundry and memory divisions, but recently the direction has changed—five new units will be introduced solely for memory production.”

Samsung has also secured two next-generation High-NA EUV systems, which will be used in its foundry for 2-nanometer processing.

“One unit will be installed at the Hwaseong campus, and the other’s location is yet to be decided,” said the source. “If additional orders arise from major North American clients, the remaining unit may be sent to the Taylor, Texas plant,” indicating a flexible deployment strategy based on customer demand.

Samsung’s aggressive investment move is closely tied to the industry’s entry into a “memory supercycle.”

During the previous downturn, memory manufacturers drastically reduced capital expenditures (CAPEX), but as the AI market has exploded, demand for high-performance memory has surged. This has caused severe supply shortages and rapid price increases.

In fact, Samsung’s production lines are operating at maximum capacity. Another insider said, “The wafer input volume for DRAM at the Pyeongtaek campus has reached its highest level this year,” adding, “The P2D line, which produces 1b (fifth-generation 10-nm) DRAM, is processing about 150,000 wafers per month, while the P1D line, which produces 1a (fourth-generation 10-nm) DRAM, is handling roughly 140,000 per month.”

The total DRAM production capacity of Samsung’s Pyeongtaek plant is estimated at around 300,000 wafers per month. The recent increase in the contract amount and acceleration of construction timelines for Samsung Electronics’ Pyeongtaek Fab 4 (P4) Phase 4 project—handled by Samsung C&T and Samsung E&A—also reflects this production expansion trend.

To Be Used in HBM — 50% Yield Achieved, Intensifying Rivalry with SK hynix

Rival SK hynix is also significantly increasing the number of EUV machines and planning to expand its DRAM production facilities next year, signaling an even fiercer “equipment war” between the two giants.

The new EUV equipment introduced by Samsung will play a critical role not only in general DRAM but also in HBM manufacturing.

Samsung has staked its competitiveness on the HBM market and is beginning to see tangible results. The yield of its HBM4-grade 1c (6th-generation 10-nm) DRAM has reportedly reached around 50%. Each new DRAM generation delivers higher performance, and the 1c node is a full generation ahead of the currently commercialized 1b (5th-generation 10-nm) DRAM.

“The P3 line in Pyeongtaek continues to process wafers for HBM4-grade 1c DRAM,” said another insider. “The yield is around 50%, though still volatile depending on process conditions.” While yield stabilization is still in progress, industry observers see this as a major step toward full-scale mass production.

Regarding the additional EUV equipment, Samsung Electronics stated, “We cannot confirm details of that matter.”

$ASML

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https://t.co/Wx0H3VHel8


Summary: Shares Goldman Sachs bullish NAND outlook: 2.5% supply shortfall in 2026, prices +33% YoY with uptrend through 4Q26.

NAND memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, Kioxia, SanDisk

Outlook for the 2026 NAND Market — Goldman Sachs

The supply side faces multiple constraints. First, SK hynix and Micron, due to wafer capacity limitations, will prioritize high-margin DRAM in 2026, resulting in limited NAND expansion. Second, U.S. export controls on manufacturing equipment for Korean memory plants in China have blocked Samsung and SK hynix from upgrading their capacity in China. Third, leading companies are focusing on 3D NAND technology migration—such as moving to higher layer counts—rather than adding new capacity, so global NAND capacity growth in 2026 is expected to be only 5%. Amid this supply–demand mismatch, Goldman Sachs has raised its NAND price outlook, projecting a 2.5% supply shortfall in the global NAND market in 2026, with prices up 33% year over year and the uptrend extending through 4Q26 (previously, the peak was expected in 3Q25).

Insights from Goldman Sachs’ latest memory report:

Currently, Samsung’s HBM3E price is 5% lower than SK hynix’s, but Samsung may further cut HBM3E prices to regain market share.

HBM pricing trend: HBM3E prices are expected to decline 28% YoY in 2026 (from $15/GB to $10/GB) https://t.co/ZqDB4EHmFn


expectations seem to have run even further ahead... To keep enjoying a valuation premium over Nvidia as it does now, I think the company needs to show more

Summary: AMD Analyst Day guidance failed to exceed already-elevated AI expectations; needs more catalysts (e.g. new mega-scale customers) to justify current premium valuation — implied cautious/bearish lean.

AMD: Why didn’t Analyst Day get the dopamine flowing?

Hello, this is Moon Junho from Samsung Securities.”

AMD held its Financial Analyst Day overnight and presented its mid- to long-term outlook.

With bubble concerns resurfacing across the sector, the stock fell during regular trading and was up about 4% after hours; in the end, that amounts to only a 1–2% gain versus yesterday’s close. In other words, it didn’t get the dopamine flowing.

Compared with consensus:

■ AMD’s medium- to long-term guidance for the next 3–5 years
    1.    Revenue CAGR +35%
1-1) Data center revenue CAGR +60%
1-2) AI revenue CAGR +80%
    2.    Gross margin 55–58%
    3.    Operating margin 35% or higher
    4.    EPS above $20

They offered a somewhat ambiguous “3 to 5 years (?)” window, but since there isn’t any compiled consensus for 2030 anyway, let’s assume it refers to 2028, three years out.

The 2025–2028E overall revenue CAGR consensus (FactSet) is around 29%, which is above expectations. The 2028 EPS consensus is only $10, which likewise makes this a surprise.

However, we’ve been saying the stock’s narrative is AI. The 2025–2028E AI GPU revenue CAGR consensus is already 82%, so it’s hard to say this meaningfully exceeds market expectations. For reference, the 2028 gross margin consensus has already climbed to 60%.

Of course, in absolute terms, this is undeniably an impressive growth outlook, but expectations seem to have run even further ahead.

To keep enjoying a valuation premium over Nvidia as it does now, I think the company needs to show more, such as securing new mega-scale customers.

Thank you.

(Published material on 2025/11/12)


I still haven't bought any pure NAND companies, and I probably never will

Summary: Avoids all pure NAND companies permanently; NAND boom structurally unsustainable due to fragmented supply base, Kioxia/SanDisk CAPEX overhang, and no HBM-like capacity absorber until HBF ~2027–28.

A Random Thought — How Long Will the NAND Boom Last?

Everyone probably knows that HDD lead times have been pushed out to more than 52 weeks.

Because of that, hyperscalers are gradually shifting from HDDs to SSDs — specifically, to QLC SSDs.

It’s gotten to the point where there are even rumors that 1TB QLC SSDs are being completely swept up.

However, what I want to talk about today is this:

Unlike DRAM, I believe the NAND boom cannot last for several years.
Let me explain why.

• There are simply too many players

In the DRAM cycle, we’ve seen companies reduce investment during downturns and over-invest during booms — and that’s what created the cycle.

As I posted recently, the management teams of Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron have finally learned their lesson:

It’s more profitable in total to invest less during booms and thereby extend the cycle.

The three players are now indirectly aligned in this behavior.
Even if they increase CAPEX, there’s the “magical product” called HBM, which absorbs most of the incremental capacity.

(Meaning: since a large portion of DRAM wafers are consumed in producing HBM, the supply of commodity DRAM has actually decreased.)
However, in NAND, the situation is different — there are not only the three memory giants but also SanDisk, Kioxia, and YMTC, which are pure NAND players.
These companies, even when they make money, have nowhere else to invest but NAND.

In other words, unlike the three memory makers who can also allocate CAPEX to DRAM, these companies have no alternative investment targets.

For Kioxia or SanDisk, increasing NAND CAPEX is inevitable.
Since NAND is their only business, not investing in it would raise questions about the company’s very purpose of existence.

In fact, Kioxia has publicly stated that it plans to double its CAPEX within the next five years.
If that happens, do you think Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron will just sit back and watch their market share erode?

I don’t think so.

Eventually, the three memory makers that also produce DRAM will have to increase NAND investment as well —
and that means the traditional memory-cycle dynamics will inevitably reappear in NAND, at least until HBF arrives.

If HBF is commercialized, this story could change.
If HBF can, like HBM, consume a large share of NAND wafers and thereby reduce the supply of commodity NAND,

then the NAND industry could be re-rated.

However, the commercialization of HBF is expected around 2027–2028.
If the AI bubble bursts before then, NAND will likely fall back into another state of oversupply.
That’s why I still haven’t bought any pure NAND companies, and I probably never will.

This is not investment advice.


SanDisk (spun off from WD) listed on Nasdaq as SNDK


I'm considering selling my AMAT holdings

Summary: Considering selling AMAT holdings; disappointed by the small WFE opportunity ($8B per $100B AI capex) implied by Lam Research's presentation.

One of the most striking parts of Lam Research’s recent presentation was their statement that every $100 billion increase in AI investment creates about an $8 billion market opportunity in WFE.

Honestly, is that considered small, or is it a satisfactory figure?

No matter how much higher margins the companies selling shovels (like fabless firms such as NVIDIA) enjoy compared to those making shovels (semiconductor equipment makers), this number still feels somewhat disappointing to me.

I’m considering selling my AMAT holdings.

What do you all think?


the price target is raised again—from USD 205 to USD 235—and the report notes that the stock's setup ahead of earnings in three weeks looks structurally attractive

Summary: Shares/endorses UBS Buy on NVDA, PT raised $205→$235 on EPS upgrades, CoWoS capacity, and Blackwell ramp; MU cited as HBM4 supply partner beneficiary.

UBS’s Dissection of NVIDIA’s GTC

Aside from several new partnerships (detailed below), NVIDIA’s (NVDA) latest demand guidance indicates that the market’s current earnings expectations remain significantly underestimated.
This view is also supported by recent findings from supply chain checks.
As a result, the report raises its 2026 EPS forecast to approximately USD 7.72 and 2027 EPS forecast to USD 9.42, projecting data-center revenue to reach about USD 377 billion in 2027 (versus roughly USD 190 billion this year).

However, current production capacity and HBM support still appear insufficient to sustain the shipment volume and revenue scale implied by NVIDIA (details below).
One possible reason is that NVIDIA’s recognized GPU shipments for this year are expected to be roughly 15% lower than actual production, mainly to allow channel inventories to gradually clear before GB300 cabinet volumes ramp up.
After adjusting for this factor, performance could align more closely with NVIDIA’s implied expectations and potentially lift 2026 EPS further to around USD 8.75.
NVIDIA also suggested that if customers place orders sooner—allowing delivery cycles to accommodate additional shipments before the end of 2026—there remains further upside potential.

The upward forecast revision is based on several drivers:
NVIDIA’s 2026 CoWoS capacity allocation has increased by about 10% compared with earlier plans, while HBM4 supply agreements with SK Hynix and Micron (MU) are still under negotiation.
The new model assumes GPU shipments of about 6 million units in 2025 and 8 million units in 2026, consistent with UBS Global Semiconductor Team’s capacity estimates, but not yet fully reflecting several billion USD of inventory on NVIDIA’s balance sheet, which could provide additional upside.

In addition, the model does not yet include the China market factor.
If a future Trump administration allows export to China of GPUs with roughly 80% of the B200’s performance—representing a USD 50 billion annual market of which Chinese domestic suppliers can meet only USD 10–20 billion—then the China market could become a major upside “wild card.”

Beyond growth assumptions, the key investor concern now is whether NVIDIA’s high profit margins can remain sustainable amid the rapid development of custom ASICs.
The report concludes that such margins are likely to remain sustainable for the foreseeable future, owing to the company’s strong lead in cabinet-level ecosystem integration and explosive market demand growth.
Based on higher earnings expectations, the price target is raised again—from USD 205 to USD 235—and the report notes that the stock’s setup ahead of earnings in three weeks looks structurally attractive.

View on Upcoming Earnings

NVIDIA’s third fiscal-quarter (ending October) results are approaching, and the company is expected to report on November 19.

Although the full consensus has yet to converge, fundamentals heading into the report appear very optimistic.
The company is expected to guide revenue around USD 63 billion, with gross margin in the mid-70% range.
Considering current production conditions and the large volume of chips and boards already on its balance sheet (ready to ship), analysts believe quarterly revenue could reach USD 66 billion, well above the USD 61 billion market consensus.

From a qualitative standpoint, while much of NVIDIA’s demand outlook has already been partially priced in, analysts still expect the tone of the earnings call to be highly confident and constructive.

GTC Summary and Demand Clarification

At the recent GTC event, NVIDIA (NVDA) stated that, based on products shipped through 2025 and expected shipments through the end of 2026, the combined lifetime revenue of Blackwell and Rubin series could reach USD 500 billion.
This figure includes networking revenue and is roughly five times the lifetime revenue of the Hopper series.
The CEO’s reference to “five quarters” was clarified internally—not to mean that USD 500 billion would be achieved within the next five quarters.

According to a bottom-up GPU model, analysts estimate Hopper’s lifetime revenue at around USD 130 billion (including last quarter’s stronger-than-expected tail contribution).
Thus, the “five-times revenue” remark broadly validates the model’s reasonableness.
As for forward potential, the model currently assumes Blackwell + Rubin (excluding Rubin Ultra and China sales) will generate USD 395 billion in total revenue from about 8 million GPU units, slightly below NVIDIA’s implied cumulative shipment figure of 10 million.

NVIDIA is also accelerating construction of seven new U.S. supercomputers, including two systems at Argonne National Laboratory:
    • Solstice (equipped with 100 K Blackwell GPUs)
    • Equinox (equipped with 10 K Blackwell GPUs)

The company additionally announced these collaborations:

1. Nokia – launch of an AI-native 5G/6G base-station platform bringing AI to edge computing; T-Mobile US expects to begin joint pilots with Nokia/NVIDIA in 2026.

2. Uber – support for its Hyperion 10 autonomous-driving platform, targeting expansion to a 100 K-vehicle fleet by 2027.

3. NVQLink – an open system architecture connecting quantum processors (QPUs) to GPUs, already supported by 17 QPU vendors.

4. CrowdStrike & Palantir – partnerships expanding AI applications in cybersecurity and systems optimization.

5. Omniverse updates – introduction of DSX (for AI factories and data centers) and Mega (for manufacturing AI applications).

⸻

Analysis and Key Takeaways

Following last month’s UBS Asia Tech Tour and UBS Taiwan Conference, analysts raised TSMC’s CoWoS monthly capacity forecast from 100 K to 110 K wafers by end-2026, identifying NVIDIA as the primary beneficiary of the expansion.

GPU shipment forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lifted by 23%.
From a product-mix standpoint, Blackwell series is expected to account for 73% of total revenue in 2025, peaking at 83% in 2026.
The Rubin series should represent about 13% of 2026 shipments, spanning R200, VR200, and CPX models.

Rubin CPX revenue contribution is projected to begin in Q1 2027.
A Vera Rubin CPX cabinet contains 18 trays, each housing 2 VR200 and 8 CPX chips (a 1:2 ratio).
By end-2026, the CPX cabinet adoption rate is expected to reach roughly one-third.

⸻

Valuation: Target Price USD 235 (previously USD 205)

Applying a 28× P/E multiple (in line with large-cap tech peers) and raising average 2026–2027 EPS estimates from USD 7.01 to USD 8.57,
the report lifts its price target from USD 205 to USD 235.


HBM4 supply agreements with SK Hynix and Micron (MU) are still under negotiation


Savvy foreign investors have started buying Samsung Electronics again. foreigners have resumed net buying this month, recording a net purchase of 500 billion KRW as of the 1st to the 4th

Summary: Bullish Samsung on HBM4 qual pass for Google TPU, Nvidia GPU qual imminent, and resumed foreign net buying.

Samsung HBM4, Final Approval for Google TPU... "Next Year's Supply Contract Completed"

Samsung Electronics has finally passed the qualification test (Qual Test) for HBM4 (High Bandwidth Memory), which will be mounted on Google's next-generation AI chip, the Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), and has completed the supply volume contract for next year. It is reported that Samsung has secured orders for more than three times the volume compared to this year, including the HBM3E previously supplied.

According to related industries, Hock Tan, Chairman and CEO of Broadcom, visited South Korea earlier this week and met with Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun (Head of DS Division), who oversees Samsung Electronics' semiconductor division, to sign the HBM4 supply contract. Broadcom serves as the design and production hub for Google's TPU and acts as a practical gateway responsible for the procurement, integration, and certification of core components like HBM.

An industry insider stated, "CEO Hock Tan brought relevant executives and finished discussions with Samsung Electronics," adding, "They requested an HBM supply contract through 2028, but the Samsung side gave a firm commitment only for next year's volume, with future volumes to be discussed later." Google's 7th generation TPU is scheduled to use the 5th generation HBM3E, while next year's 8th generation model will use the 6th generation HBM4.

The supply contract Samsung Electronics signed with Broadcom this time amounts to half of Samsung's annual HBM production capacity (CAPA). Broadcom requested a larger volume, but it is known that the Samsung side expressed reluctance due to supply commitments for Nvidia's Graphics Processing Units (GPUs).

Since the release of Google's AI model 'Gemini 3', the AI ecosystem, previously centered on Nvidia GPUs, is rapidly diversifying toward Google TPUs. Wall Street estimates Google TPU volumes to grow from approximately 1.5-2 million units this year to 8-9 million units by 2028. This forecasts a growth of over five times in three years.

There are also observations that Samsung Electronics will obtain HBM4 qualification approval for Nvidia GPUs within this month. Attention is focused on whether Samsung Electronics, which has been making determined efforts after losing HBM leadership to SK Hynix due to delayed Nvidia qualification for HBM3E, can regain the market leader position through the passing of TPU and GPU HBM4 qualification tests.

Savvy foreign investors have started buying Samsung Electronics again. Foreigners, who net bought over 7 trillion KRW in October pushing Samsung to '100,000 KRW Electronics', turned to net selling over 2 trillion KRW in November to realize profits. Samsung Electronics' stock price has also fallen about 8% from its peak after hitting 110,000 KRW. However, foreigners have resumed net buying this month, recording a net purchase of 500 billion KRW as of the 1st to the 4th.

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https://t.co/oMLbnhwSHY


AWS currently has a $200 billion backlog... cloud revenues for CSPs will start to rebound significantly

Summary: Shares Citi's bullish AI adoption note: CSP cloud revenues to rebound late 2025, accelerate in 2026; $4.4T US hyperscaler CAPEX over 5 years.

251103_Updating AI Industry Model on Accelerating Adoption - CITI

(1) Citi raised its estimates for AI service revenues for 2025–2030.

(2) *AI service revenues are projected to grow from $43 billion in 2025 to $975 billion in 2030 [CAGR +86%].
*AI services include: ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, Microsoft AI Foundry, Grok, etc.

(3) Citi also estimates that over the next five years, U.S. hyperscalers’ total CAPEX will reach $4.4 trillion, while global CAPEX will total approximately $7.75 trillion.

(4) The firm believes that the market still underestimates the impact of AI on

1. corporate productivity,

2. consumer behavior, and

3. the scale of infrastructure investment required to realize it.

(5) AI adoption within enterprises is transitioning from the Proof of Concept (PoC) stage to full-scale production, while at the same time, capacity constraints are being alleviated through expanded computing infrastructure.

(6) Considering that AWS currently has a $200 billion backlog and Azure AI’s sales are being constrained by capacity shortages (i.e., demand exceeding supply), Citi expects that by late 2025,

1. cloud revenues for CSPs will start to rebound significantly, and

2. growth momentum will accelerate in 2026.


Azure AI's sales are being constrained by capacity shortages... growth momentum will accelerate in 2026


cloud revenues for CSPs will start to rebound significantly, and growth momentum will accelerate in 2026

US cloud computing sector proxied by CLOU ETF


We believe demand for the iPhone 17 series could surpass that of the iPhone 16. Given the continued strength in iPhone demand, we have raised our EPS forecasts by an average of about 3% for fiscal 2025 through fiscal 2027.

Summary: Shares Goldman Sachs bullish AAPL call: iPhone 17 demand poised to surpass iPhone 16, EPS raised ~3% FY25-27; supply-chain rally including TSMC and Foxconn seen continuing through year-end.

Goldman Sachs: “Has the iPhone Entered a Super Cycle?”

Apple shares rose 4% on Monday to a record high of $262.24. With Counterpoint Research data indicating strong demand for the iPhone 17 series, speculation is spreading among investors that an iPhone super cycle has arrived.

Goldman Sachs’ latest report highlights that delivery (shipping) lead times for the newest iPhone models have been somewhat extended, emphasizing this as another sign of strong demand. Buoyed by this optimistic report, the share prices of Apple’s major supply-chain partners in Asia also rose.

According to the latest data from Counterpoint Research, sales of the iPhone 17 series in the first 10 days after launch in the U.S. and China increased by 14% compared to the same period for the iPhone 16 series. Counterpoint Senior Analyst Mengmeng Zhang wrote in the report:

“The base model of the iPhone 17 is highly attractive to consumers and offers strong value for money.”

In the report, the team led by Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng pointed out that demand for the iPhone 17 series could surpass that of the iPhone 16, citing as supporting evidence longer delivery lead times, higher production capacity planning, and active feedback from carriers.

“How does the demand trend for the iPhone 17 compare to previous generations? Are we entering an iPhone super cycle?” On this question, Michael Ng stated in the report:

“We believe demand for the iPhone 17 series could surpass that of the iPhone 16.”

The report cited the following evidence:

(1) Noticeably extended delivery lead times versus the 16 series; (2) An increase in total production planning; (3) Positive recent feedback from carrier channels.

Globally, during the 33 days after pre-orders began, the iPhone 17 series had an average delivery lead time of 24 days, exceeding the iPhone 16 series’ 20 days in the same period in 2024.

Base model: Lead times are distinctly longer than for the base models of the iPhone 15 and 16
Pro and Pro Max: Somewhat longer than the equivalent iPhone 16 models
iPhone Air: Initially shorter than the iPhone 16 Plus, but has now flipped

By region, delivery lead times for the iPhone 17 have already surpassed those of the iPhone 16 series during the same period in the U.S., U.K., India, Japan, and Hong Kong. In mainland China, there are delays for the iPhone Air model, but lead times for the other iPhone 17 models still robustly exceed those of the prior year’s period. Goldman Sachs noted that there may be some distortion in the mainland China data. Consumers who would originally have chosen the Air model may have shifted to other iPhone 17 models, potentially leading to an overestimation of demand.

Before Apple reports earnings on October 30, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng projected that iPhone sales would rise 10% year over year and Mac sales 12% year over year, leading Apple’s fiscal Q4 2025 revenue and EPS to beat expectations. The projected gross margin is 46.5%, reflecting roughly $1.1 billion in tariff costs. The report stated:

“Given the continued strength in iPhone demand, we have raised our EPS forecasts by an average of about 3% for fiscal 2025 through fiscal 2027.”

Since the iPhone 17 was announced on September 9, the strong momentum of the iPhone 17 series has triggered concurrent share-price gains among Apple’s supply-chain companies in Asia. Key suppliers that rely on Apple for more than half of their revenue—such as Luxshare Precision, LG Display, and LG Innotek—have all seen their share prices rise more than 20%. Although valuation doubts remain, the record high in Apple’s share price could keep the rally in supply-chain companies going through year-end.

According to Bloomberg, Apple’s recovery is also having a positive impact on Taiwan’s stock market. Even amid the artificial intelligence boom, TSMC and Hon Hai (Foxconn) still rely significantly on Apple-related revenue. These two giants account for as much as 47% of the Taiwan Weighted Index, making the iPhone 17’s success effectively an invisible stimulus for the Taiwan market.

That said, as the Goldman Sachs analyst emphasized, whether this marks the start of an “iPhone super cycle” remains to be seen.

$AAPL


TSMC and Hon Hai (Foxconn) still rely significantly on Apple-related revenue. These two giants account for as much as 47% of the Taiwan Weighted Index, making the iPhone 17's success effectively an invisible stimulus for the Taiwan market.


Hon Hai Precision 2317.TW Taiwan (Foxconn)


I'm going to buy Google the moment the market opens

Summary: Buying Google at market open.

@zephyr_z9 Then try the exact same thing on Gemini if you don’t believe me lol.

I’m going to buy Google the moment the market opens.


Summary: Endorses Morgan Stanley bullish memory call; author says the cycle upcycle is far from over, don't exit on peak fears.

"The party’s not even halfway over yet."

Surging demand, depleted inventories, memory is already a “seller’s market”… Morgan Stanley: investors shouldn’t exit on “peak fears”

The demand wave triggered by AI is reshaping the global memory market.

On October 19, Morgan Stanley noted in its latest report that the memory https://t.co/kAnPASNxR9


Summary: Rates SK Hynix more highly than Samsung Electronics following reduced Rubin volumes for 2026.

@JEONwh7859 It’s difficult to predict which one will outperform.
However, now that Rubin volumes for 2026 have been reduced, I rate Hynix more highly.

@jukan05 1. Samsung Electronics vs. SK Hynix
"Do you know why people are suggesting that Samsung Electronics' stock performance will likely outperform SK Hynix's moving forward? Do you consider this rationale to be reasonable?"


Summary: Bullish NAND into 2026 on supply discipline + QLC server SSD penetration acceleration; Kioxia and Samsung seen as key beneficiaries.

Kioxia: FY2Q25 (September 2025 quarter) Earnings Release Comment
[Daishin Securities / Semiconductor / Hyungkeun Ryu]

■ Kioxia FY2Q25 (September 2025 quarter) Review

• Both the results and guidance fell short of the market’s elevated expectations. As a result, memory semiconductor share prices are showing weakness.

• One notable point in the results is the blended ASP. The blended ASP declined by a low single-digit percentage QoQ, but Kioxia’s business characteristics need to be taken into account.

• In the September quarter, it is the peak season for mobile products (centered on Apple), which have lower pricing compared to servers. On the server side as well, sales were focused on discrete components with relatively lower unit prices, so we believe there was clearly an impact from the change in product mix.

■ In 2026, a surprise could come from NAND

Given Kioxia’s results, which came in below expectations, and its guidance for the next quarter, we believe some may be concerned about the NAND cycle. We see such concerns as excessive. On the contrary, our view is that the surprise could come from NAND.

1. Strengthening supply discipline

Everyone is exercising restraint. Production lines for low value-added products with weak demand are being permanently shut down (withdrawn), and capex is being executed at a restrained level. Next year as well, it is highly likely that production growth will fall short of demand growth.

2. Upward revision of demand

• The penetration of server QLC is set to begin in earnest. In Kioxia’s case, it is on the verge of obtaining certification for high-capacity eSSD products (122TB QLC) for North American hyperscalers, and Samsung Electronics is also planning to actively respond to high-capacity eSSD demand with its V9P process.

• Even if the products are not the 2Tb devices where customer demand is strongest, customers are buying any product as long as it is QLC. This shows that SSD penetration within servers is accelerating. Given the nature of SSDs, which have relatively higher pricing, we believe there is now an open opportunity for further profitability improvement driven by price hikes.


we believe there is now an open opportunity for further profitability improvement driven by price hikes


Samsung Electronics is also planning to actively respond to high-capacity eSSD demand with its V9P process