Summary: EMC and TUC are beneficiaries of AI server upgrade cycle; M8/M9-grade CCL penetration rising 40%→70% by 2026, driving capacity tightness and ASP gains.

Report: US copper tariffs send prices soaring, but AI server demand boosts Taiwan's CCL makers

As the US prepares to impose steep tariffs on imported copper, global copper prices have rebounded, raising concerns about rising costs across copper-intensive industries. Among the most vulnerable is the copper-clad laminate (CCL) industry, a foundational pillar of printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing, where higher raw material prices could compress margins and trigger price hikes downstream.

Despite the focus on tariff-driven price changes, industry analysts indicate that attention is now gravitating toward the growing demand for advanced materials, fueled by a surge in AI server upgrades. Suppliers based in Taiwan, including Elite Material Co. (EMC) and Taiwan Union Technology Corp. (TUC), are emerging as likely beneficiaries amid this evolving market dynamic.

Trump tariffs fuel copper price volatility
Copper prices have swung sharply in recent months, partly in response to US President Donald Trump's proposed tariff policies. Trump has announced plans to implement a 50% import duty on copper, categorizing it as a strategic raw material, effective August 1, 2025. Although copper prices have not surpassed the May 2024 peak of US$10,116 per metric ton, futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to US$9,481 on July 21, 2025, marking a two-week high.

Manufacturers of CCL in Taiwan report that the rising copper costs are placing pressure on cost-control efforts. However, much of the increased expense is typically transferred to downstream PCB customers through pricing mechanisms linked to average copper prices. Industry insiders suggest that moderate fluctuations in copper prices could potentially stimulate customer orders and contribute to a more stable demand cycle.

AI demand outshines copper volatility
Although copper accounts for a significant portion of overall costs, some CCL firms believe that carefully managed price increases could create profit opportunities. Industry sources point out that AI remains the primary driver of demand in the global technology market, leading to strong orders for premium CCL materials. Meanwhile, Chinese and mid-tier competitors are still facing challenges related to overcapacity and intense price competition in the low- to mid-range product segments, limiting the possibility of widespread price increases.

For suppliers based in Taiwan, the emphasis has shifted beyond copper tariffs. Renewed optimism has emerged following a positive outlook from a leading global foundry regarding AI-related demand in the second half of 2025. As a result, industry participants are increasingly focusing on securing high-margin contracts for next-generation AI server components.

Rubin GPUs and new ASIC servers to boost CCL penetration
Market analysts anticipate that Nvidia's upcoming Rubin-series AI GPUs will upgrade from M8-grade to M9-grade CCLs, featuring higher layer counts and more stringent technical specifications. Concurrently, US-based cloud service providers are expected to roll out a new generation of AI ASIC servers in 2026, a move projected to significantly boost demand for both upstream CCL materials and downstream PCB manufacturing.

Forecasts suggest that as demand for AI servers and ASIC chips grows from late 2024 onward, penetration of M8/M9-grade CCLs will jump from 40% in 2025 to 70% by 2026. This will likely lead to capacity constraints for EMC and TUC's high-end production lines, with extended lead times and rising average selling prices (ASP) anticipated.

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https://t.co/hZjFuFwHMT


Summary: Goldman reiterates Buy on DELL, raises 12-month PT from $130 to $140 after HQ visit; confident in AI server tech advantages and $14.4B backlog.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Goldman Sachs: After Visiting Dell Headquarters, More Confident in its AI Server Technology Advantages

Earlier this year, Dell reached a $5 billion agreement with Elon Musk's xAI to provide advanced AI servers to support the startup's next-generation AI computing workloads. Dell also recently signed an agreement with AI hyperscaler CoreWeave to deliver high-performance server racks, supporting its rapidly expanding cloud services platform.

On Thursday, a team of Goldman Sachs analysts led by Michael Ng visited Dell's headquarters in Round Rock, Texas. They met with several Dell executives, including Arthur Lewis, President of Infrastructure Solutions Group, and Paul Frantz, Head of Investor Relations, to gain a deeper understanding of Dell's rapid innovation and execution capabilities in the AI infrastructure space.

Ng told clients: "This site visit gave us a deeper appreciation for Dell's engineering and design capabilities for AI servers, which we believe is its core competitive advantage in the market." The analysts' main conclusion is that Dell has successfully established its dominant position in the AI infrastructure domain, thanks to its world-class engineering strength, deep relationships with customers and suppliers, and the growing demand for AI servers—with a current backlog of advanced server orders reaching $14.4 billion.

Analysts stated that Dell's engineering and design capabilities are outstanding. Following the first shipments of NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 servers on July 3, just seven months after the earlier first shipments of GB200 NVL72, the analysts' on-site visit to the AI lab further deepened their understanding of Dell's leading capabilities. Dell assigns dedicated teams ("pods") comprising thermal, networking, storage, and system architects to AI clients, working closely with them to meet evolving AI demands. Dell can also design and deliver multiple custom components to meet specific scenario requirements, strongly supported by its top-tier supply chain management. Furthermore, Dell collaborates closely with key suppliers to pre-position new product deliveries, which will lead to operational leverage as revenue expands.

Meanwhile, Dell's AI labs and first fiscal quarter (F1Q26) results show strong AI server demand: last quarter, Dell recorded $12.1 billion in AI server orders, and the backlog increased to $14.4 billion. Despite converting $12.1 billion in orders into sales, Dell's orders continue to expand, reflecting sustained strong demand for AI systems. While sovereign government customers contributed to the growth, the primary demand still comes from Tier 2 Cloud Service Providers (CSPs). Analysts interacted with several AI team members in the lab, gaining a deeper understanding of the complex elements involved in server execution, including cooling, rack design, power, cabling, networking, and software.

Additionally, Dell's traditional server refreshes continue, and the storage business is also progressing: 70% of Dell's traditional installed base is still 14th generation or older products, presenting a clear refresh opportunity. Enterprises are also attempting to consolidate data center equipment to optimize power and cooling efficiency. Although traditional servers have achieved year-over-year growth for six consecutive quarters, the growth primarily comes from increased average selling prices and configurations rather than unit shipments, indicating that most equipment is still relatively old. While the storage business was impacted by the gradual phasing out of VXRail products, Dell's self-developed technology has driven three consecutive quarters of storage revenue growth, with positive progress particularly in private cloud, AI, and security domains.

Goldman Sachs maintained its "Buy" rating on Dell and raised its 12-month price target from $130 to $140.

$DELL


Summary: JPM maintains Overweight on Hanmi Semi and BESI, Neutral on ASMPT; selectively bullish on ASE and Unimicron as advanced packaging beneficiaries, cautious on mainstream semi recovery and hybrid bonding adoption pace.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Asian Tech- JPM

Key highlights from BESI 2Q25 results

Semiconductor Equipment Industry Outlook: Hopes and Concerns for H2 2025 📊

🌅 Mainstream Recovery, but Double-Dip Concerns...

BESI's Q2 results were still impacted by weak demand for mobile and automotive semiconductors, but management emphasized early signs of recovery in mainstream semiconductors. They stated that demand for HPC in high-end mobile and consumer markets is driving growth, and they anticipate a semiconductor upturn in H2 2025. This aligns with ASMPT's recent outlook.

However, we are more cautious about the mainstream semiconductor recovery. Recent guidance from fabless companies and IDMs suggests a potential double-dip in the second half of this year. This is due to the fading impact of Chinese subsidies and the strong tariff avoidance demand seen in the first half of the year also diminishing.

🔗 Hybrid Bonding, Driving Force in HBM4 and Logic... But Cautiously

BESI reported that hybrid bonding revenue more than doubled year-over-year in H1 2025 and expects significant order increases in H2. Management expressed confidence that hybrid bonding is progressing smoothly in HBM4 (estimated to be Samsung's 16-Hi HBM4) and logic (primarily TSMC's SoIC-X), preparing for customer qualification in 2026 and mass production in 2027.

However, we remain cautious about the rapid adoption of hybrid bonding, especially in DRAM applications. We believe that TCB will remain the preferred option for the next two years due to better TCO and improved throughput. The transition to hybrid bonding is likely to start with 20Hi/24Hi HBM4e or HBM5 stacks.

In logic, SoIC adoption also remains slow (only AMD among AI customers by 2027, and for high-end Mac processors like Apple's M5 Pro/Max. Nvidia seems more cautious, and CPO appears delayed). NAND's 3D stacking could emerge as a new application for hybrid bonding in the mid-term, but it will require much lower specifications and precision.

🎯 Focus on BESI's New TCB Platform, Memory TCB Market Intensifies

BESI's new TCB platform is attracting decent interest (estimated to be from Micron). The improved cycle time and accuracy of the next-generation TCB platform look highly competitive. BESI announced that it plans to ship 5 system orders (revenue scale over $20 million) in late Q3 to Q4 this year, which appears to be for pilot testing given the low volume.

We believe the memory TCB market is becoming increasingly competitive. Multiple vendors (ASMPT, Hanmi Semiconductor, Hanwha Systems, Shinkawa, SEMES, BESI, etc.) are competing for market share. This competition will put pressure on margins and necessitate further innovation to maintain a competitive edge.

🚀 Advanced Packaging Market Growing Rapidly - Selective Beneficiaries Expected

The advanced packaging market is expected to show rapid compound annual growth (Advanced Packaging ~12% CAGR to '29, High-Performance Packaging ~37% CAGR to '29). This will benefit major OSATs like ASE and substrate manufacturers like Unimicron. Meanwhile, increasing complexity and precision requirements are likely to positively impact test vendors (BESI noted the assembly equipment market needs to grow 63% from 2024-29).

Nevertheless, we maintain a more selective view on equipment vendors due to the challenge of fierce competition among multiple vendors in some areas. We maintain an Overweight rating on Hanmi Semiconductor and BESI, and a Neutral rating on ASMPT.


ASMPT listed on Hong Kong Exchange 0522.HK


Unimicron Technology listed on TWSE as 3037.TW


Summary: Long BESI as winner in hybrid bonding race; long AMAT as best-in-class CMP equipment provider and BESI's largest shareholder.

@foggycap I ultimately think BESI will win. Hybrid bonders require the CMP process, and AMAT is the best at CMP equipment — plus, AMAT is BESI’s largest shareholder, right?

@Jukanlosreve Gotcha, so no bumps when stacking NAND.

Who do you think will win in the memory hybrid bonding race?

BESI clear leader today but hasn’t seemed to figure out memory yet… ASMPT similar. Then Hanmi/Hanwha/LG etc all talk about HBonder launches by ‘27-28


AMAT is the best at CMP equipment — plus, AMAT is BESI's largest shareholder, right?


Morgan Stanley raised its July quarter revenue estimate to $46.6 billion... maintained its "Overweight" rating and lifted its price target from $200 to $206

Summary: Morgan Stanley reiterates Overweight on NVDA, raises PT $200→$206 on strong demand, supply improvements, and ~85% market share through 2026.

NVIDIA 2Q Earnings Preview: Strong Demand and Supply Improvements Support Continued Growth
Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 25/08/18)

Earnings and Target Price Update

Morgan Stanley raised its July quarter revenue estimate to $46.6 billion (previously $45.2 billion) and October quarter revenue estimate to $52.5 billion (previously $51.3 billion). The firm maintained its “Overweight” rating and lifted its price target from $200 to $206, reflecting an approximate 4% increase in FY27 EPS.

Demand Remains Strong

Hyperscale customers described demand using terms like “remarkable” and “insatiable” in earnings calls. The focus has shifted from last year’s supply constraints toward a surge in inference demand, underscoring the durability of NVIDIA’s growth. All four major hyperscale customers are maintaining strong growth, while second-tier cloud providers such as CoreWeave and sovereign customers are also adding new momentum.

Supply Bottlenecks Improving

- Cabinet assembly is accelerating: Hon Hai expects Q3 cabinet shipments to be three times higher than in Q2.

- China hardware teams estimate that the top four ODMs will double cabinet output in Q3, reaching about 34,000 cabinets for the year, equivalent to roughly 2.4 million GPUs, or about $90 billion in revenue.

- Testing bottlenecks are easing: KYEC expects Q3 test volumes to rise to 1.5 million units.

- Overall, every stage of the Blackwell supply chain is showing improvements.

Product Mix and China Uncertainty

- Hopper production has ceased; in Q2 it still contributed around $6 billion, but is expected to decline to $2.8 billion in July.

- B200 server shipments are compensating for cabinet shortages, but with lower ASPs and less additional content.

- The company may exclude China contributions from October guidance; however, if license approvals accelerate, there could be upside.

- Previous U.S. Commerce Department restrictions on China created about $8 billion in headwinds, and recovery for the H20 remains uncertain.

Competitive Landscape Outlook

- Morgan Stanley expects NVIDIA to further expand market share in 2025 and maintain close to 85% share in 2026.

- Even with Google ramping up ASIC development, its spending on NVIDIA is still expected to grow over 3x YoY.

- AMD’s UALink is projected to scale in 2026, but NVIDIA will already be ahead with the Rubin platform’s next-gen NVLink Fusion.

- Overall, competitors are unlikely to surpass NVIDIA in mainstream workload performance.

Conclusion
Morgan Stanley believes that in the short term, supply remains the main constraint, while demand determines the outlook through 2026. Even excluding China, NVIDIA’s revenue remains below actual demand, and growth momentum will continue into next year.

$NVDA


HBM plays a critical role in performance improvement within the AI market. Considering its continued importance, there is no doubt about its growth potential. High growth will continue. Given the secured visibility for HBM supply next year, we decided to make proactive investments to respond in a timely manner. We expect to be able to respond quickly with additional supply. SK Hynix will strive to take leadership in new memory areas like PIM

Summary: SK Hynix 2Q25 earnings call: strong HBM demand visibility into 2026, proactive capex, NAND normalizing, and resumed NVDA China exports as upside catalyst — durably bullish.

■ SK Hynix 2Q25 Earnings Call Key Q&A (1)

1. What is the mid-to-long-term demand outlook and growth momentum for HBM beyond 2025?

- The AI market is showing rapid growth driven by expanding big tech CAPEX, increasing token usage, and the growth rate of AI startups.

- In particular, AI demand is expanding from training to inference and becoming more sophisticated, leading to a steep increase in workloads. Bandwidth bottlenecks are also intensifying.

HBM plays a critical role in performance improvement within the AI market.Considering its continued importance, there is no doubt about its growth potential. The AI market is expanding into areas such as AI agents, which will increase computational demands. This will drive market demand growth.

Moving forward, while the HBM market may not experience the initial explosive growth rates, it is seeing rapid expansion and diversification of its customer base.Considering the launch of their new products and services, high growth will continue.

2. What is the status of supply negotiations with key customers for HBM 2026?

- It is difficult to discuss customer-related specifics in detail. Things are proceeding as planned. We are closely discussing product mix and pricing due to the increasing diversity of customer projects.

As a collaborative partner in AI semiconductors with our key customers, we are negotiating for optimal supply conditions. We are preparing to stably supply the highest quality products on time, grow with our customers, and respond to increased supply needs in a timely manner.

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■ SK Hynix 2Q25 Earnings Call Key Q&A (2)

3. What was the intensity of the pull-in demand impact in Q2, current inventory levels, and the demand outlook for the second half?

- Our shipments in Q2 significantly exceeded the initial guidance, indicating higher-than-expected purchasing demand.

- Customers had initially aimed for conservative inventory levels in the first half of this year but shifted towards securing adequate inventory due to tariff uncertainties.

- Purchasing demand significantly increased from customers who had been holding low inventory.

- Additionally, for some legacy products, there was competition to secure volume among small and medium-sized companies, including module makers.

We achieved much higher shipments in the first half than initially planned. Demand slowdown persists in the second half.
We believe there's a low probability of abrupt market supply-demand fluctuations.
Customers' inventory levels in Q2 did not rise to concerning levels.
Memory suppliers' inventories have also substantially decreased, so future supply increases will only be possible due to production increases.
While purchasing demand may be influenced by future tariff policies,we will focus on stable business operations, primarily for products with secured demand visibility.

4. Concerns about reduced utilization of Chinese factories. What are the future operational plans for Chinese fabs?

- Currently, there are no issues with the Validated End-User (VEU) status that SK Hynix secured in October 2023. We plan to continue operating Chinese fabs while complying with regulations and considering customer needs.

Recent circumstances show that the supply and demand for legacy DRAM are creating concerns for Chinese fab operations. For instance, the industry-wide expansion of HBM mass production is acting as a constraint on general DRAM. A shortage of legacy supply is emerging during the transition process to D5/LPD5 products.
We addressed the short-term increase in legacy demand with inventory from the last quarter. After reviewing the IT ecosystem, we've determined that demand for legacy products will remain at a certain level for a considerable period, so we plan to actively utilize our Chinese fabs to address legacy products.
Chinese fabs are also important production facilities for global memory semiconductor supply and demand. We will continue to monitor US regulations and communicate with various countries in the future.

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■ SK Hynix 2Q25 Earnings Call Key Q&A (3)

5. NAND Q2 shipment growth significantly exceeded guidance. What's the background?

- In the last earnings announcement, we provided a guidance of 20%.
- At that time, there were signs of rising spot prices and decreasing customer inventory, but demand visibility for some products wasn't high.

However, in Q2, hyperscaler customers increased their AI investments, leading to increased eSSD demand.
There was also pull-in demand, primarily for component products, due to tariff impacts.
Furthermore, mobile demand increased thanks to promotional events in China.
With the increase in Q2 sales volume, our inventory levels have dropped to a normal level.
We'll continue to appropriately manage production and inventory according to future market conditions.

6. As we move to HBM4, there are concerns about HBM profitability in the market due to increasing cost rates. What's the company's opinion on this?

- HBM4 is a product with many technical changes, such as an increased number of I/O due to bandwidth and design modifications.

We aim to reflect the increased costs of HBM4 in its pricing as much as possible. We want to establish optimal pricing with customers to revitalize the HBM market.

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■ SK Hynix 2Q25 Earnings Call Key Q&A (4)

7. What are your operational plans for DDR4 products going forward?

- With some suppliers deciding to exit, short-term supply shortage concerns have emerged.
- As this is a period of generational transition from D4 to D5, we view this more as a demand concentration phenomenon rather than a significant change in D4 itself.

Our D4 revenue proportion has been continuously decreasing since 2023 due to expanding D5 and HBM demand. From a double-digit percentage last year, it has fallen to a single-digit percentage this year. While we do have plans to end production of D4 for the mass market in the future, we will continue to support customers with long-term contracts.

8. Capex. How much will this year's investment increase compared to the original plan? Will the increase be in equipment investment or infrastructure?

- We are simultaneously pursuing investments for future growth and financial soundness. This year's investments are primarily focused on meeting the volumes agreed upon with customers. Long-term growth infrastructure investments, such as M15X and the Yongin fab construction, are also underway.

Given the secured visibility for HBM supply next year, we decided to make proactive investments to respond in a timely manner. Accordingly, our investment scale this year will increase compared to the original plan, with most of the increase going towards HBM equipment investment. The exact investment amount will be finalized once investment discussions with key customers are complete.Going forward, we will adhere to capex discipline while enhancing investment efficiency.

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■ SK Hynix 2Q25 Earnings Call Key Q&A (5)

9. Concerns about limited capacity expansion due to no available space in M16 fab. Considering M15X investment, what is the ramp-up plan by the end of next year? What is the timeline for 1c DRAM to ramp up to a meaningful proportion of 15-20%?

- As the HBM market grows and demand increases, SK Hynix has been converting a lot of its general DRAM capacity to HBM.
- Compared to the past, the required cleanroom size for producing the same volume has also significantly increased.
- Currently, SK Hynix's existing fabs are being utilized for product mix optimization, technology transitions, and securing TSV.
- For the mid-to-long term, M15X, Yongin, and advanced packaging US fabs are being prepared simultaneously.

M15X is scheduled to open in Q4 this year. Mass production will begin next year.We plan to mass produce next-generation HBM products primarily. Since customer volume visibility for next year has been secured, we plan to gradually increase capacity.
While it's difficult to disclose the M15X capacity plan for the end of next year, inferring the intent of the question, we can comment that there will be no instances where we cannot meet customer demand due to fab space constraints.
1c transition will begin in the second half of this year. Next year will be the full-scale period. We will share concrete plans once they are finalized.

10. Growth has slowed compared to the past, and suppliers remain conservative. NAND profitability improvement is limited. How long is this situation expected to continue?

- The current slowdown in NAND market growth is due to stagnation in customer IT set demand and AI investment not yet leading to storage device purchases.

However, the need for storage investment will gradually emerge. Increased AI utilization and a significant rise in token generation will make it difficult to cope with existing data processing methods.
Therefore, we plan to offload AI inference data caching to eSSD. Initial demand will emerge in 2-3 years. If this trend materializes, eSSD will become part of the computing cache rather than just a storage device, increasing its proportion in AI systems. From this perspective, we expect significant growth to begin in the NAND market.

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■ SK Hynix 2Q25 Earnings Call Key Q&A (6)

11. Will next-generation DRAM technology also be efficient for HBM DRAM Die production?

- Traditionally, the technologies pursued by memory companies have been reaching their limits in terms of performance and capacity. SK Hynix is primarily considering a transition to a Vertical Gate Platform and 3D technology based on groundbreaking changes in structure and materials below 10nm.

- The Vertical Platform is a next-generation technology that significantly improves area efficiency and power efficiency by vertically stacking gates. 3D DRAM is a technology that achieves high capacity without further miniaturization. We are striving to secure technological capabilities so that these technologies can overcome existing weaknesses and become standardized.

- However, technological attempts require time to secure stability and mass production feasibility. We will continue to maintain technological leadership by actively pursuing miniaturization with existing methods.

- One of the foundations of SK Hynix's HBM competitiveness is its core DRAM technology. We expect that preparing for next-generation memory DRAM will allow us to maintain our competitive edge in the next generation as well.

12. Regarding the issue of a major customer resuming AI chip exports to China. What is the upside demand effect?

- It hasn't been long since the major customer resumed exports to China, so we are also currently verifying the information on the HBM products for those specific products.

- However, we have been a key vendor supplying HBM products for those specific products until the export restrictions were imposed. We expect to be able to respond quickly with additional supply.

- Based on close collaboration, we will work to ensure that this situation also brings a positive outcome for our company.

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SK Hynix 2Q25 Earnings Call Key Q&A (7)

13. There are concerns about intensifying HBM competition. As a leader in HBM, what is the company's future strategy in response to this?

- Concerns about intensifying competition are natural. Competition is an inherent part of operating a memory business. It's crucial to deliver strong performance and bring value to investors.
- As HBM has emerged as a critical product, the memory market has transformed from a pure commodity market. Now, leading players hold significant bargaining power. HBM greatly influences the performance of AI chips and AI systems. As a result, the advantage of proactively negotiating with customers is much stronger than in the past.
- SK Hynix's corporate culture also contributed to its rise as a leader in the HBM market, where it was once weaker. Our customer-centric mindset and strong organizational teamwork are not easily copied by other companies. Ensuring our continued presence with HBM customers will be a key competitive advantage in the future HBM market.
- To overcome the current constraints in AI Computing, we must respond with HBM and new memory products. SK Hynix will strive to take leadership in new memory areas like PIM, aligning with customer needs.


I believe Samsung has no choice but to pull it off — I've heard too much from people on the inside.

Summary: Bullish Samsung: insider signals suggest the company will overcome HBM yield/stack challenges through sustained R&D push.

Semiconductors aren’t an industry that runs because of one genius. It’s a factory powered by hundreds of reasonably smart people working together.

Samsung has recently been pushing countless engineers into nonstop R&D.

I believe Samsung has no choice but to pull it off — I’ve heard too much from people on the inside.

@Jukanlosreve I think you understimated the leaps that need to be done. 1a/1b DRAMs aren’t sufficient to bridge the gap. 1c has to yield a good HVM’able yields for 12Hi/16Hi outs to make sense. Coupled if this culture story is true, its a challenge to tackle both issue. https://t.co/JOrSOJSvbV


Summary: JPMorgan adopts positive long-term DRAM/HBM growth outlook: cHBM customization, power efficiency, Edge AI TAM 21% CAGR to $50B by 2030, hybrid bonding ahead of schedule.

JP Morgan: Positive Long-Term DRAM Growth Outlook After the Memory Executive Summit

1. From Passive to Active: Customized HBM Redefines the Role of Memory

• In XPU-to-XPU environments connecting hundreds of chips, memory is expected to account for a larger share of total cost of ownership (TCO) in advanced AI infrastructure design. Memory vendors anticipate HBM evolving into an active component of system intelligence. Customized HBM (cHBM) will integrate diverse features, processing capabilities, and logic die designs (e.g., LPDDR working alongside HBM and compute logic integrated within HBM stacks), making customization a key differentiator of performance. Vendors disclosed that multiple customer projects are already underway, stressing the importance of collaboration with foundries and supply chain partners.

• Investor concerns over GPU vendors taking control of next-generation logic die design were deemed excessive. Memory companies are now providing full-stack solutions that include HBM dies, logic dies, LPDDR, PIM (processing-in-memory), and storage solutions across multiple AI infrastructure layers.

2. AI-Driven Explosive Power Consumption: HBM as the Key to Reducing AI Infrastructure TCO

• Compared to HBM3/3E, vendors are placing greater emphasis on HBM’s power-saving value proposition. With training compute demand increasing ~4x per year and power consumption surging accordingly (data center power demand rising from 1.5% of global electricity in 2025 to 3.0% in 2030; AI servers expected to account for 65% of data center consumption by 2030, representing a 56x increase vs. 2023), vendors shared design challenges and solutions for energy efficiency. Every 10% improvement in HBM power efficiency reduces rack-level power consumption by ~2%, enabling large-scale system-level gains.

3. Expansion of Emerging Memory Solutions Targeting Customized AI Markets

• Similar to creative approaches in packaging back-end processes (CoWoS, CoPoS, etc.), memory vendors are focusing on commercializing new memory solutions optimized for specific applications.

4. Edge AI as the Next Growth Phase: Expanding AI Inference Market

• As the focus shifts from training to inference, the Edge AI hardware TAM is projected to grow at a 21% CAGR between 2023–2030, reaching $50B by 2030. Demand is expanding from cloud toward edge devices, with smartphones, automobiles, and consumer electronics requiring low-latency, low-power, high-bandwidth memory. Winbond highlighted its CUBE (4-Hi HBM with TSV and TCB stacking) technology, while other vendors are expected to prepare VFO (Vertical Fan-Out) solutions for Edge AI. Suppliers anticipate advanced Edge AI solutions achieving meaningful market adoption within 2–3 years.

5. Accelerated Adoption of HBM Hybrid Bonding Solutions

• Vendors are moving faster than the base case scenario of 2H 2027 for adoption of hybrid bonding in HBM. Testing is already underway not only for 20-Hi HBM but also for 16-Hi HBM4E.


Summary: CLSA reiterates positive view on Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron; US curbs on China ops seen tightening memory supply mid-term.

250901_US curbs SEC/Hynix China operations - CLSA

[Key Takeaways]

(1) This U.S. Department of Commerce action will not cause production disruptions in the short term.

(2) If disruptions do occur, memory supply will become even tighter.

(3) In the mid to long term, domestic companies are expected to reduce their production share in China and accelerate fab construction in Korea.

(4) Maintain a positive view on SEC/SKH/MU.

[Contents]

(1) Status of Korean memory companies’ China fabs as of 1H25

SKH DRAM: 185K [36% of SKH DRAM / 10% of global DRAM]
SKH NAND: 85K [37% of SKH NAND / 6% of global NAND]
SEC NAND: 120K [30% of SEC NAND / 9% of global NAND]
(2) For SKH’s DRAM fab, process upgrades to 1-a are underway, but still 50% remains on 1-z and 1-y processes. For NAND, mainly 144-layer, with review underway for upgrade to 192-layer.

(3) For SEC’s China NAND fab, mainly based on 128-layer.

(4) This U.S. action aims to restrict Korean companies from expanding production capacity and upgrading processes in China.

(5) In the short term, there will be no production suspension, but the burden of securing export licenses each time U.S. equipment is purchased will increase, leading to greater uncertainty.

(6) However, in the long term, fabs in China will face upgrade restrictions, falling behind fabs in Korea in terms of competitiveness, which could result in cost structure deterioration for domestic memory companies.

(7) Accordingly, the need for Korean companies to accelerate construction of new domestic fabs will increase.


I remain bullish on Samsung's stock. I believe it has at least 20% upside from the current level.

Summary: Long Samsung 20%+ upside; bearish on Micron and SK Hynix as Samsung's HBM3E pricing war pressures peers and HBM3E ASP may fall as early as Q4.

I remain bullish on Samsung’s stock. I believe it has at least 20% upside from the current level.

Micron’s sharp drop yesterday and SK Hynix’s plunge today are both driven by Samsung effectively declaring a game of chicken in the HBM3E market.

HBM customers like Nvidia are using Samsung as leverage to push down HBM3E pricing — and that’s unavoidable.

I’m starting to think that the ASP of HBM3E might begin to decline as early as Q4 this year.

What We Can Glean from Samsung Electronics' Earnings Release

The increase in DRAM's ASP (Average Selling Price) was lower than expected. The company announced a 30% increase in bit growth. Since Q1's bit growth was 600 million Gb, Q2's was nearly 800 million Gb. This suggests


Micron's sharp drop yesterday and SK Hynix's plunge today are both driven by Samsung effectively declaring a game of chicken in the HBM3E market.


SK Hynix's plunge today are both driven by Samsung effectively declaring a game of chicken in the HBM3E market.


Buying more AMD doesn't seem like a bad idea either

Summary: Endorses buying more AMD shares.

@treasureh8nter I’m using an iPhone 15 Pro, haha. Buying more AMD doesn’t seem like a bad idea either.

@Jukanlosreve what are you using now?

is the iphone Air an actual upgrade?! 😅

how about buying $AMD shares instead 🤣


Summary: AMD MI350 price hike drives higher AI chip revenue ($15.1B est.); Samsung benefits via HBM pricing power and expanding AMD partnership.

Report: AMD Raises Price of New AI Chips; Samsung Anticipates HBM Benefits

AMD, a U.S. fabless semiconductor company, is significantly raising the price of its new artificial intelligence (AI) chip. Samsung Electronics, which supplies High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for this product, is also expected to benefit directly and indirectly.

As AMD's AI chip profitability increases, its room for component unit price increases will grow, allowing Samsung Electronics to sell HBM at a higher price.

According to industry sources on the 28th, analysis suggests that the average selling price of AMD's recently launched new AI chip, the 'MI350,' has increased by $10,000 (KRW 14 million) to $25,000 (KRW 35 million) from previous estimates.

Experts believe that the MI350's performance rivals that of Nvidia's latest AI chip, the 'Blackwell B200,' leading to a higher price for the MI350 than initially anticipated by the market. Although still 30% cheaper than the Blackwell B200, the price has risen significantly.

The MI350 is primarily used in AI data centers, with AI computing performance improved by up to 4 times and inference performance by up to 35 times. As this chip incorporates eight 12-layer 5th-generation HBM3E units, it could be good news for memory companies.

As AMD's AI chip prices rise, the demand for AI chips in the AI market is expected to grow further.

Global investment bank HSBC commented, "AMD's MI350 is now capable of competing effectively with Nvidia's Blackwell B200 in the market," adding, "AMD's AI chip revenue next year will be $15.1 billion, a significant increase from the previous estimate of $9.6 billion."

As the price of AMD's MI350 increases, Samsung Electronics, which supplies HBM for this chip, can sequentially increase its profitability.

This is because as the profit margin from AMD's MI350 expands, the acceptable range for increasing component supply prices, including HBM, can widen. Conversely, if AI chip prices decrease, pressure for component supply price reductions intensifies.

Furthermore, with the expansion of demand for AMD's AI chips in the AI market, Samsung Electronics' HBM price negotiation power is also likely to increase. As HBM supply becomes tighter, memory suppliers gain greater negotiation leverage.

Previously, AMD officially confirmed the adoption of Samsung Electronics' HBM3E in the MI350 series in June. As Samsung Electronics has not yet passed Nvidia's HBM3E quality verification (qual-test), expanding HBM cooperation with AMD is considered more important than ever.

In addition, attention is focused on whether Samsung Electronics will succeed in supplying 6th-generation HBM4 for AMD's next-generation chip 'MI400,' scheduled for release next year. Unlike its competitors, there has been no news yet of Samsung Electronics' HBM4 sample supply. Samsung Electronics aims for HBM4 mass production in the second half of this year.

An industry official stated, "Samsung's negotiation power can increase at a time when HBM demand is rapidly growing," adding, "We need to observe more closely whether they will cooperate with AMD for HBM4 as well."

---

https://t.co/e2DPQCZiLF


As the price of AMD's MI350 increases, Samsung Electronics, which supplies HBM for this chip, can sequentially increase its profitability


Upgrade to Buy, Target Price USD 175: Dell's stock has risen 16% over the past month, driven by accelerating AI infrastructure trends.

Summary: Shares/endorses GF Securities upgrade of DELL to Buy with $175 PT on GB300 demand acceleration and storage recovery.

GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Telecom Report

☄ Dell (DELL US): Significant Growth in GB300 Demand by 2026, Plus Strengthening Storage Business

☀ Upgrade to Buy, Target Price USD 175: Dell’s stock has risen 16% over the past month, driven by accelerating AI infrastructure trends. On the AI server side, we expect GB300 momentum to pick up speed. We estimate FY26/FY27 NVL72/144 rack shipments will reach 5.5k/10k units, supported by demand from xAI and CoreWeave. Meanwhile, we expect strong HDD+SSD demand to underpin Dell’s storage business and support margin performance. In the near term, we expect Dell’s stock to react positively ahead of the October 7 analyst meeting, as long-term upside remains. Considering increased NVL72/144 racks, reduced HGX demand, and improved storage demand, we raise our FY26/FY27 EPS estimates by 3%/10% respectively, and adjust our target price to USD 175. This is based on 15x FY27E P/E, reflecting improved visibility in AI servers and easing margin concerns. Given attractive valuation and better risk/reward, we upgrade Dell to Buy.

☀ Notable Increase in GB300 Demand by 2026: We now estimate Dell’s FY26 GB200/300 NVL72 shipments at 5.5k units, above our previous forecast of 4.5k, while AI HGX server shipments are expected to decline to 26k units as the market shifts toward NVL72/144 configurations. For FY27, we forecast NVL72/144 rack shipments of 10k units, supported by xAI’s Colossus 2 and CoreWeave’s agreements with OpenAI/Meta. Dell’s strong positioning at the L11/L12 tier will also help. We project FY26/FY27 AI server revenues at USD 24.5bn/39.0bn, both above consensus. With increased order visibility for GB300 among second-tier cloud service providers, Dell’s AI server pipeline is expected to continue growing, becoming the primary growth driver of the ISG business.

☀ Storage Business Recovery Supporting Margins: In our report “A Stronger NAND Cycle in 2026”, we highlighted that eSSD demand for 2026 was revised upward, driven by AI data centers and HDD replacement. Dell previously guided for flat storage business in FY26, but we now expect slight upside and a stronger rebound in FY27, benefiting from rising storage demand tied to AI infrastructure. With Dell’s IP and higher proportion of all-flash product mix boosting profitability, we expect momentum in storage improvement to support overall margin recovery, alleviating key investor concerns. We forecast storage revenue growth of +2%/+6% YoY in FY26/FY27.

《广发海外电子通信》
☄ 戴尔 (DELL US) ：2026年GB300需求显著增长，加上存储业务增強

☀升评至买入，目标价175美元：DELL股价过去一个月上涨16%，受AI基础设施趋势加速推动。在AI服务器方面，我们预计GB300动能开始加速动，预估FY26/FY27


N2 is more profitable than N3. Structurally… all nodes below N7 are very tight. Demand for 5nm, 3nm, and future 2nm is very strong. This kind of strong demand has not been seen for a very long time.

Summary: TSMC 2Q25 call summary: all nodes below N7 tight, N2 more profitable than N3, AI/HPC demand explosive, CoWoS expanding — structurally bullish.

TSMC 2Q25 Conference Call Key Comments & Q&A Summary

▶ Key Q&A

Q. Is the previous outlook for CoWoS supply-demand balance by 2026 still valid?

- AI demand is growing stronger, and we are working hard to narrow the CoWoS supply-demand gap.

- The momentum remains strong and very healthy.

Q. Any changes in the outlook for on-device AI?
- It takes 1-2 years for customers to complete new product designs, and development is still ongoing.

- While the increase in the quantity of edge devices is moderate, die sizes are increasing (by about 5-10%).

- We expect full-scale growth in 6 months to 1 year.

Q. According to the guidance, revenue seems to decrease in Q4. Is this due to the consumer segment?

- We are being conservative, considering the potential impact and uncertainty of tariffs.

Q. Considering the resumption of H20 shipments to China, is it possible to revise upward the 5-year CAGR for AI accelerator growth to the 40% range?

- It's too early to revise the outlook upward due to the resumption of H20 shipments to China.

- It would be more appropriate to answer this in the next quarter.

Q. What is the expected revenue contribution of N2 ramp-up in 2026? Will it be similar to N3's 10-11% (based on the second year)?

- New nodes have historically ramped up through smartphones, but now HPC products are also participating in the ramp-up.

- Since N2 prices are higher than N3, the revenue contribution will definitely be larger.

Q. With the N5→N3 transition mostly complete, is there a possibility of N3 supply becoming tight in the coming years? Conversely, will N5 utilization rates decline?

- The tight supply situation will continue for the next few years.

- N5 is also very tight.

- The high demand is because many AI products are still on the N4 node.

- These products will transition to N3 within the next two years.

- Currently, all nodes below N7 are very tight.

- One of our strengths is having GIGAFAB clusters.

- 85-90% of equipment from N7, N5, N3 to N2 is common.

- This allows for easy CAPA adjustment and transition between nodes.

- We are currently utilizing N7 CAPA to support N5.

Q. Can wafer prices be adjusted upward to offset increased costs like exchange rates?

- Pricing is just one of several factors; other factors can also be utilized.

Q. Please provide examples and quantify the benefits of integrating AI across the fab, contributing to cost structure improvements and profits.

- Even a 1% improvement in productivity due to AI represents a value of approximately $1 billion.

Q. Large-scale fab investment plans and ability to meet GW-scale demand?

- Recently, AI data center demand has exploded globally.

- Demand for 5nm, 3nm, and future 2nm is very strong.

- This kind of strong demand has not been seen for a very long time.

- We are working very hard to close the gap between supply and demand.

Q. N2 ROI level compared to N3 and future N2 development direction?

- Structurally, N2 is more profitable than N3.

- N2 development is proceeding as planned, with ramp-up starting in the second half of this year, and revenue contribution expected in the first half of next year.

Q. Possibility of CapEx increase in 2026-2027?

- CapEx plans for 2025 were made considering macroeconomic uncertainties.

- It's too early to discuss future CapEx, but there won't be a drastic reduction.

Q. Any change in the 2025 AI growth rate from the previous 100% guidance? Possibility of further CoWoS Capa expansion in 2025?

- We are working very hard to narrow the gap between supply and demand.

- The demand momentum is very strong and healthy.

- We are continuously expanding CoWoS capacity to support customer demand.

Q. Prioritization of advanced packaging technology development?

- We are simultaneously developing various advanced backend packaging technologies.

- These are closely linked to cutting-edge node processes.

- Some transferability between technologies is also secured, allowing for efficient response.

Q. Scale and opportunities in the humanoid robot market?

- It's difficult for humanoid robots to play a significant role within this year, and 2026 is also too early, we believe.

- The medical industry will likely be the first area where humanoids are utilized.

- Humanoid robots require a wide variety of sensors, as well as extreme stability and precision.

Q. Are customers pulling demand forward into 2H25 before the 2026 price increase?

- No pull-in demand from customers detected.

- Considering the 3nm process cycle time of approximately 4 months, even orders placed now would be difficult to produce within this year.

- Current process capacity is also very tight, so there is no room to pull demand forward.

Q. Have AI and HPC entered a phase where they, along with smartphones, are driving A16 demand?

- Yes. Until now, HPC customers have used N+1, N+2 nodes, but moving forward, AI demand will rapidly shift to A16.

$TSM


Summary: Author turned bullish on NAND, references HBF as part of the thesis.

I wrote this piece on HBF and NAND.
I hope you find it helpful.

Why did I turn bullish on NAND? feat. HBF

https://t.co/hwvIBaqsWA


Summary: Citi: Samsung HBM3E qualification nearing completion, HBM oversupply fears easing on commodity demand surge and HBM4 transition; bullish read for Samsung and MU.

250922_Samsung’s HBM3e Progressing; HBM Oversupply Risks Easing on HBM4 Transition and Strong Commodity Memory Demand - CITI

(1) According to the Korean media outlet Chosun Media, Samsung has reportedly passed NVIDIA’s qualification test for HBM3E 12hi.

(2) If this is true, Samsung will have joined NVIDIA’s HBM3E 12hi supply chain approximately 19 months after first beginning development of the product.

(3) We believe the qualification test is now in the final stages, and the results are expected to come out between late September and early October.

(4) If Samsung passes the qualification test, it could potentially be adopted in the B300, which for the first time will be equipped with liquid cooling.

(5) However, we expect Samsung’s HBM3E 12hi supply volume to be more limited than the level anticipated by the market.

(6) Meanwhile, although concerns remain about HBM oversupply due to Samsung’s entry, the recent surge in commodity memory demand is expected to offset much of this risk.

(7) In addition, Samsung is prioritizing HBM4 development over HBM3E 12hi in order to regain memory leadership, and the specification upgrade [10Gbps] is also expected to slow down the overall pace of HBM supply growth.

$MU


Samsung has reportedly passed NVIDIA's qualification test for HBM3E 12hi


Summary: GB300 on track per Dell/CoreWeave delivery; supply chain expects continued AI server revenue growth in H2 2025, bullish for NVDA.

Report: With GB300 on track and no Cordelia detours, Nvidia eyes a strong AI finish in 2025

With Nvidia's GB200 series products entering volume shipments starting in the second quarter of 2025, the GB300 has also begun its delivery recently, as Dell chairman and CEO Michael Dell has unveiled that his company's GB300 NVL72 products have officially been delivered to AI cloud computing provider CoreWeave for use. This indirectly confirms that the GB300, originally expected to start small-volume shipments in the third quarter of 2025, has not been affected by the volume ramp-up of GB200 and is shipping according to plan.

Suppliers are taking comfort from the momentum driven by both GB200 and GB300, viewing it as a positive sign for business performance in the second half of 2025.

At Nvidia GTC in March 2025, the company first revealed the architecture and products of GB300, announcing plans to begin engineering sample shipments and limited test orders in the second quarter of 2025, with mass production and initial shipments slated for the third quarter of 2025. However, since the GB200 series had yet to reach volume in the market at that time, there was concern whether this would cause cannibalization or delay GB300 shipments.

According to supply chain sources, key challenges related to manufacturing process technology, liquid cooling systems, and thermal management pushed back the mass production timeline for GB200 products from September 2024 to the second quarter of 2025. Many suppliers then expected that GB300 might also face delays as a result.

However, in April 2025, reports emerged that the Cordelia architecture initially planned for GB300 would be replaced by the existing Bianca architecture used in GB200. This change boosted confidence among industry players regarding GB300's planned volume shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025. Dell's delivery to CoreWeave further confirmed that GB300's shipment schedule remains on track.

In addition, many designs and components originally tailored for GB300 were reportedly deferred or scaled down, favoring mature designs based on GB200.

Supply chain insiders noted that the overall design and manufacturing processes have become more refined, making the launch of GB300 less challenging. The critical factor now lies in real-world testing. Previously, GB200 encountered problems requiring fixes only after being shipped for field testing.

Demand for AI servers remains strong on the client side, with manufacturers working overtime to support client deliveries. Major GB200 shipment leaders such as Foxconn, Wistron, Quanta Computer, and their associated supply chains are expected to continue benefiting from the growing market demand for AI computing power, anticipating revenue growth in the second half of 2025.

Supply chain experts believe that because architectural changes are limited, the overall learning curve should shorten for GB300. Provided field tests meet targets smoothly and upstream semiconductor supplies remain stable, downstream assembly and supply chain partners can fully cooperate.

As for clients potentially shifting investment focus from GB200 to GB300, supply chain insiders said this depends entirely on considerations of return on investment. Regardless of whether it is GB200 or GB300, supply chain stakeholders expect to continue enjoying the benefits brought by the AI wave throughout the latter half of 2025.

$NVDA

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https://t.co/NmTHEVIaXI


Summary: Shifting view on NAND; expects shortage conditions ahead, turning bullish on the segment.

To be honest, I used to overlook NAND too.

But lately I’ve been starting to change my mind. I think NAND could actually end up in shortage. https://t.co/GL6GOFH5vy

Morgan Stanley: Why We Forecast Strength in the NAND Market in the AI Era https://t.co/EH5trLt4RT


Summary: Shares Goldman Sachs bullish thesis on China AI: H20 supply resumption eases compute bottleneck, 44% QoQ capex surge in 3Q25 drives sustained cloud revenue growth.

China AI Application Tracking: Improved External Compute Supply + Local Model Evolution + Accelerated Enterprise Adoption Jointly Drive China's AI Development into a New Phase

Goldman Sachs (R. Keung, 25/07/15)

Goldman Sachs believes that with the expected resumption of NVIDIA H20 chip supply, China's AI compute bottleneck is likely to ease. Coupled with the continuous evolution of local models, accelerated enterprise adoption, and increasingly clear commercialization paths, China's AI ecosystem is poised for multiple catalysts in the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs expects Chinese cloud vendors to initiate a new capital expenditure cycle in 3Q25, with overall Capex seeing a 44% quarter-over-quarter growth, driving sustained growth in AI cloud revenue.

Rapid Evolution of Local Chinese Large Models, Gradually Narrowing the Technology Gap

While a gap still exists between top-tier Chinese and U.S. models, recent launches of models like Kimi, Tencent Hunyuan, and ByteDance Doubao, which feature capabilities such as code generation and MoE inference optimization, demonstrate rapid progress in model capabilities by Chinese internet platforms and AI startups.

Significant Acceleration in Generative AI Adoption by Enterprises

According to Gartner data, over 40% of Chinese enterprises are piloting generative AI tools, a significant increase from 8% last year. Meituan's recently launched code agent tool, NoCode, is an example, indicating that enterprises are accelerating AI deployment for internal tools and efficiency improvements.

Clear Commercialization Paths for To C, Accelerated Adoption in To B Sector Led by Healthcare

In the To C (to consumer) segment, subscription-based AI tools like Kuaishou Keling are achieving steady Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth. Ad-driven search and assistant AI (e.g., Quark, WeChat Qbot, Baidu) are enhancing their commercial closed-loop capabilities through improved advertising technology. In the To B (to business) segment, Alibaba DAMO Academy and Ant Group have launched a model that can identify gastric cancer up to six months in advance and an AI health application, respectively, reflecting substantial breakthroughs for AI in the healthcare vertical.

Intensifying Competition in Video Generation Models, All Leading Platforms Have Deployments

Kuaishou Keling's AI revenue is projected to grow from $142 million in 2025 to $400 million in 2027, representing a 2-year compound annual growth rate of 68%. Additionally, ByteDance's Seedance, Alibaba's Tongyi Qianxiang (integrating Qwen3 multimodal capabilities), and Baidu's Steamer-I2V and MuseSteamer have also entered the video generation market, indicating a fiercely competitive landscape.


Goldman Sachs expects Chinese cloud vendors to initiate a new capital expenditure cycle in 3Q25, with overall Capex seeing a 44% quarter-over-quarter growth, driving sustained growth in AI cloud revenue


Morgan Stanley's base case is Scenario 2, where TSMC upgrades its full-year revenue growth to a high double-digit percentage... This scenario has a 60% probability, with an expected stock price increase of 2%

Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley Buy-thesis on TSMC: Q2 beat, full-year guidance upgrade likely, earnings call July 17 as catalyst with base-case 2% stock upside.

TSMC: Q2 Revenue Exceeds Expectations, Increasing Likelihood of Full-Year Guidance Upgrade; Focus on Information from the Earnings Call

Morgan Stanley (C. Chan, 14/07/2025)

Morgan Stanley notes that TSMC's Q2'25 revenue in USD surpassed the high end of its guidance, significantly increasing the probability of an upward revision to high double-digit growth for the full year. Strong AI demand persists, with customers pulling in orders ahead of schedule. The earnings call on July 17th is expected to be a catalyst for the stock price.

Q2'25 USD Revenue Reaches $29.6 Billion, Exceeding the Upper Limit of Company Guidance and Morgan Stanley's Expectations

TSMC announced preliminary Q2'25 revenue of NT$933 billion. Based on an average exchange rate of 31.5, this corresponds to a USD revenue of approximately $29.6 billion, a 16% sequential increase. This figure exceeds the company's guidance ceiling of $28.4-29.2 billion and is also higher than Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of +15% QoQ growth. Morgan Stanley believes that about 3-4 percentage points of this quarter's revenue growth came from customers pulling in orders early in response to tariffs.

Full-Year Revenue Growth Guidance Likely to Be Upgraded to a High Double-Digit Percentage

Previously, Morgan Stanley had forecast a 27% year-over-year growth in full-year USD revenue, which was higher than the company's original guidance of mid-teens growth. Assuming a 1% QoQ growth in 3Q and flat performance in 4Q, this 27% growth target is now achievable. Morgan Stanley's industry research indicates that even with moderate demand for mobile phones and PCs, TSMC's capacity utilization will remain high in the second half of the year. Furthermore, adjustments in some PC CPU orders have been offset by demand from cryptocurrency mining, reflecting customers' intent to place orders early before the price hikes in 2026.

Semiconductor Tariffs Remain an Unresolved Uncertainty

One of the three major uncertainties facing TSMC is the issue of tariffs. The market is currently focused on whether the Section 232 investigation will grant the semiconductor industry a grace period of 1-1.5 years, similar to the pharmaceutical industry. Morgan Stanley believes that due to its expanding investments in the U.S., TSMC is likely to receive an exemption or a grace period, and could also benefit from new U.S. tax credit policies.

Earnings Call is a Key Catalyst; Market Focus on 2025 Revenue Outlook and 2026 Wafer Price Hike Plans

At the July 17th earnings call, the key focus will be whether the company revises its full-year revenue guidance upward. Morgan Stanley's base case is Scenario 2, where TSMC upgrades its full-year revenue growth to a high double-digit percentage, provides guidance for slight sequential growth in 3Q, maintains its $40 billion capital expenditure plan, and hints that the 2026 price hike strategy will continue. This scenario has a 60% probability, with an expected stock price increase of 2%.

Two Other Scenarios Correspond to Stronger/Weaker Stock Price Reactions

In Scenario 1, TSMC would upgrade its full-year growth forecast to over 30% and explicitly state its price hike plans, potentially leading to a 5% increase in the stock price. In Scenario 3, TSMC would maintain its original growth guidance and project a sequential revenue decline in 3Q, which could cause the stock price to fall by 5%. The outcome of the earnings call will significantly impact market sentiment and stock price trends.

Key Questions for the July 17th Earnings Call:

- What factors will TSMC consider for its 2026 wafer pricing, and will this include foreign exchange impacts?
- What is the sustainability of demand for cloud AI semiconductors, and what will TSMC's CoWoS capacity be in 2026?
- How will TSMC capitalize on the strong AI demand opportunities in China?
- How will semiconductor tariffs affect customer ordering behavior? Does the company anticipate a recovery in other semiconductor segments besides AI?


Summary: Bullish TSMC on strong N2 customer adoption; quality endorsement.

Also, it’s shocking that TSMC has already gathered 15 customers for N2.

TSMC is an incredible company.

Reasons for a bullish outlook on ASML:

Ahmad Khan, President of KLA’s Semiconductor Products & Solutions Division, recently stated at a Goldman Sachs event that TSMC has secured about 15 customers for its first-generation 2nm (N2) process node, of which around 10 are https://t.co/pysGHzPcb5


Pricing power now favors AMD. AMD's revenue share sits above its unit share, while Intel's revenue share trails its unit share. This signals AMD is winning higher-value sockets and holding better ASPs

Summary: Shares/endorses thesis that AMD has pricing power advantage over INTC in servers, winning higher-value sockets while Intel discounts.

"Pricing power now favors AMD. AMD’s revenue share sits above its unit share, while Intel’s revenue share trails its unit share. This signals AMD is winning higher-value sockets and holding better ASPs, as Intel discounts during its platform transition."

👀

$AMD

The big takes from the latest Mercury Microprocessor Report on @Intel @AMD  ( $INTC $AMD ) market share and pricing dynamics in servers:

Pricing power now favors AMD. AMD’s revenue share sits above its unit share, while Intel’s revenue share trails its unit share. This signals


Intel's revenue share trails its unit share... Intel discounts during its platform transition


Summary: BofA reiterates Buy on AMD, $200 PT, raises 2025-27 EPS estimates; implies bearish on Intel losing CPU share.

BofA: AMD - Reiterate Buy, Raising Estimates, China AI Not Essential for Growth

Despite a Q2 revenue beat of $300M (4%) and Q3 revenue guidance that was $450M (5%) above consensus, AMD shares are trading down in the after-hours on what we believe is ignorable earnings-related noise: 1) No China GPU license yet. While this did not impact guidance, it may have disappointed investors who were modeling a ~$500M/quarter China contribution in Q3/Q4. 2) Much of the Q2 beat was driven by gaming consoles. The Data Center segment was largely in-line with estimates, with MI GPU sales slightly below $1B in Q2. 3) The stock has surged over 80% during the quarter, including a 15% rise since July 15th on news of a potential China license.

In our view, most of the above is noise that overlooks AMD's increasing participation in the ~$1T AI market and its opportunity to continue gaining PC/server CPU share against a struggling Intel (INTC). We are removing the China MI contribution from our estimates and raising our annual revenue forecasts for 2025/26/27 by about 3% each, leading to adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates of $3.85/$6.00/$7.50, up 1%/7%/10% respectively. Longer-term, we see $9-$10 in EPS power for a company with 15-20% top-line growth. We are adjusting our 2026 target Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple to a slightly lower 33x (from 36x) to reflect near-term China uncertainty, but we maintain our Buy rating and $200 price objective.

Positives: Improving Pipeline in a Large TAM, Strong FCF
AMD continues to execute successfully on its AI GPU pipeline. The MI355X (Blackwell competitor) is on track for a production ramp with multiple customers in the second half of the year, and the MI400 series (Rubin competitor) and Helios rack system are also on track for a 2026 launch. AMD now expects Q3 GPU revenue of ~$1.7B without the ~$800M China loss. This implies a ~$500M raise to the rest-of-world outlook compared to the pre-sanction consensus of $2.0B. Server CPUs also continue to perform well, taking share from incumbent Intel (INTC) in both cloud and enterprise. Overall, we expect AMD to be a company that consistently generates 20%+ Free Cash Flow (FCF) margins long-term.

Risks: GPU Competition, High Opex, China Uncertainty
(1) Meanwhile, NVIDIA (NVDA) is now ramping its Blackwell Ultra systems and will launch its next-gen Rubin platform in 2026. While AMD has made significant progress, we see NVIDIA's hardware as generally 0.5-1.0 year ahead, especially in its system/rack approach, where AMD still lacks experience in large-scale deployments. (2) AMD will need to maintain a high level of operating expenses (opex) to support this effort. (3) There is currently no guarantee on when, or if, AMD will receive a license to resume shipments to China, and even if a license is granted, it could take another 8-9 months for the supply chain to fully normalize. By that point, AMD's current MI308 product may no longer be competitive in the Chinese market.

$AMD


opportunity to continue gaining PC/server CPU share against a struggling Intel (INTC)


Summary: Morgan Stanley raises China WFE TAM to $4.03B for 2025 on AI-driven logic foundry demand; bullish on ASML, KLA, AMAT, Naura, AMEC.

China Semiconductor Equipment: Strong China WFE Demand Expected in H2 2025, Anticipating Growth
Morgan Stanley (C. Chan, 25/07/17)

Morgan Stanley believes that China's semiconductor equipment (WFE) market will continue to grow, driven by strong logic foundry demand and increasing localization needs, with demand expected to rise significantly in the second half of 2025. Based on surveys in Taiwan and Beijing, China's WFE demand is anticipated to strengthen remarkably in H2 2025, with AI-driven logic foundry being the primary growth engine. Morgan Stanley has also adjusted its 2025/2026 outlook for the Chinese WFE market, further raising its Total Addressable Market (TAM) and forecasts.

Rising Demand in China's WFE Market: According to Morgan Stanley's survey, China's logic foundry spending in H2 2025 could significantly exceed that of H1. Morgan Stanley expects China's lithography equipment demand to be stronger than anticipated in Q2. China's AI demand far exceeds the current AI chip supply, which is expected to drive more logic foundry spending.

Growth in China's Local Equipment Market Share: Morgan Stanley points out that approximately 25% of China's foundry CapEx in 2025 is expected to be allocated to local WFE equipment, an increase from 20% in 2024. Chinese WFE manufacturers are expanding their product portfolios; for example, Naura has launched ion implantation equipment in Q1 2025. AMEC expects its product pipeline to cover 60% of wafer processes in the next 5-10 years.

Maturity Node Oversupply: Although semiconductor equipment import data from January to May indicates a decline in demand for China's mature nodes, Morgan Stanley's industry survey suggests that the government's willingness to promote localization may override economic rationality in H2 2025. Despite some government-supported projects facing limited demand and low capacity utilization rates, government policies to promote localization of the semiconductor industry may continue to support WFE demand.

2025 China WFE Market Outlook: Morgan Stanley has revised its 2025 China WFE market forecast upwards from $3.66 billion (down 12% YoY) to $4.03 billion (down 3% YoY). Although the increase in 2025 primarily comes from Taiwan and South Korea, China remains the largest region for global WFE demand. The Chinese WFE market is expected to grow to $3.62 billion by 2026, despite a 10% YoY decline.

Foreign Equipment Suppliers Optimistic on China Market: According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, foreign equipment suppliers have improved their outlook on the Chinese market. For instance, ASML expects the Chinese market to account for over 25% of its total sales, up from a previous expectation in the low 20% range. KLA and AMAT have also raised their outlook for their China businesses, reflecting strong confidence in the 2025 China WFE market.


KLA and AMAT have also raised their outlook for their China businesses, reflecting strong confidence in the 2025 China WFE market


Naura has launched ion implantation equipment in Q1 2025

Naura Technology Group listed on Shenzhen exchange


AMEC expects its product pipeline to cover 60% of wafer processes in the next 5-10 years

AMEC = Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment, Shanghai STAR Market


Summary: Amazon pulling TR2.5/TR3 wafer orders from Marvell/Alchip to place directly with TSMC; bearish Marvell, bullish TSMC on $5B direct order flow in 2026.

According to a discussion with a business representative from a certain company, among CSP operators, Amazon—driven by the goals of strengthening cooperation with TSMC and reducing costs—plans to take back most of the wafer orders for the TR2.5 and TR3 projects that were previously commissioned through ASIC vendors Marvell and Alchip, and place them directly with TSMC via its own subsidiary, Annapurna. As a result, in 2026, the value of its self-placed orders is expected to reach USD 5 billion.

$MRVL


strengthening cooperation with TSMC and reducing costs—plans to take back most of the wafer orders… and place them directly with TSMC via its own subsidiary


Summary: Shares bullish news: Micron raising DDR4/DDR5/LPDDR prices 20–30%, suspending quotes amid supply shortage vs customer demand — implied long MU.

Micron to Raise Prices by 20%–30%, Suspends Quotations

Xincun News, 2025-09-12 11:28

Evolution Beyond Single-Processor Embedded Systems

Following SanDisk’s announcement last week of raising storage product prices by more than 10%, today Micron has informed channels that it will increase storage product prices by 20%–30%.

Starting today, all quotations for DDR4, DDR5, LPDDR4, and LPDDR5 products are suspended. Prices for contract customers are all canceled, and quotations are paused. It is expected that all product quotations will be suspended for one week.

It is reported that this adjustment involves not only consumer and industrial storage products, but also automotive electronic products, which are expected to see a 70% price increase.

According to supply chain sources, Micron executives have seen a significant supply shortage relative to customers’ FCST (forecasted) demand. Therefore, they urgently suspended all product quotations and will readjust subsequent pricing.

$MU

美光即將漲價20%-30%,暫停報價

新村社 2025-09-12 11:28

超越單處理器嵌入式系統的演進

繼上週閃迪宣布將存儲產品價格上調10%以上之後, 今日美光向渠道通知存儲產品即將上漲20%-30%。 https://t.co/9AIzBDDUnO


Summary: Relays Samsung Securities view that NVDA-Intel tie-up brings short-term uncertainty and downward price pressure on TSMC.

@dons_korea 삼성증권에서는 인텔에 엔비디아가 투자한 것 자체가 TSMC에게는 단기적 불확실성, 노이즈, 주가에 하방압력을 가져올 것이라고 하던데...

궈밍치 분석:
엔비디아–인텔 협력의 세 가지 핵심 포인트

애널리스트 궈밍치는 이번 엔비디아와 인텔의 협력이 PC 생태계, 서버 시장, 그리고 TSMC의 지위 세 가지 측면에서 의미가 있다고 짚었음.

1. AI PC 생태계의 재편 가능성

엔비디아가 자체 ARM 기반 프로세서를 개발하는 건 불확실성이


Summary: JPMorgan reiterates Overweight on AVGO as top semi pick; raises PT on AI revenue now projected $45B in FY2026 (+125% YoY) and >60% in 2027.

Broadcom – JPMorgan

Broadcom reported quarterly results in July that exceeded market expectations and also provided a solid revenue outlook for the October quarter. AI revenue came in at $5.2B, up 18% QoQ, and is expected to increase to $6.2B in the October quarter (+19% QoQ, +66% YoY). This is above the consensus of $5.7B, and the company is targeting approximately $20B in AI revenue for FY2025. These results were driven by the ramp of Google’s next-generation 3nm TPU (V6, Ironwood) and demand for the Tomahawk 5 switching platform.

One of its major customers (believed to be OpenAI) has been secured as an official client, with a $10B order for AI inference. Ramp-up for this customer is expected to begin in the second half of FY2026, leading to AI revenue growth far above prior guidance (+60% YoY), now expected to exceed 100%. Accordingly, we have raised our forecast for Broadcom’s AI revenue in FY2026 to $45B (+125% YoY), and we expect growth of more than 60% in 2027 as well. In addition, we project that the next-generation AI ASIC project with SoftBank and Arm could emerge as a key customer driver going forward.

Outside of AI, semiconductor orders have increased by more than 20%, showing gradual recovery. In the infrastructure software segment, the transition to VCF full-stack solutions and upselling are proceeding steadily. This structural growth is supported by strong capex from cloud and hyperscalers, rising AI training and inference workloads, Google TPU v6/v7 3nm ASICs, new projects with Meta and OpenAI, and demand for AI networking. Broadcom also highlighted that it secured a technological lead by being the first in the industry to complete tape-out of a 2nm process and 3.5D packaging in the second half of 2025.

We have raised our price target and earnings estimates in line with the strengthened fundamentals. Our investment rating is Overweight, and Broadcom is presented as a top pick in the semiconductor sector.

$AVGO


Summary: Citi bullish on AI infra, Ethernet/optical, and storage; bearish on consumer hardware/PC/smartphone on tariff uncertainty; 2026 cloud capex +15% vs 9% consensus.

US data center/AI infra sector proxied by DTCR ETF

North American Hardware & Communications Outlook: AI-Driven Growth Sustains Infrastructure Spending, Consumer Electronics Face Uncertainty

Citi (A. Malik, 25/07/11)

Citi notes that while AI infrastructure spending remains resilient, the consumer side faces uncertainty due to tariff impacts. Citi is optimistic about AI-related communications and storage sectors and advises avoiding consumer-oriented hardware companies.

AI Infrastructure Spending Continues to Strengthen, US Top 5 Cloud Vendors' 2026 Capex Expected to Grow 15%

Citi raised its forecast for the year-over-year growth rate of data center capital expenditure for the top five US cloud vendors in 2026 to 15% (market consensus is 9%), primarily driven by AI. Although enterprise AI applications are still in their early stages, sovereign AI demand is growing rapidly. Due to limitations in power, connectivity, and computing power, there are some imbalances in AI infrastructure construction, but long-term growth potential remains significant.

Ethernet Demand Accelerating, 2025 Data Center Switch Shipment Forecast Revised Up from 14% to 23%

In AI backend networks, the trend of Ethernet replacing InfiniBand is clear, driving accelerated 800G shipments. Data center switch growth is expected to reach 23% in 2025. As GPUs evolve to next-generation products, demand for optical modules will also increase, benefiting communications infrastructure vendors.

AI Evolution Towards Inference Era Drives Demand for High-Performance Storage

AI inference applications place higher demands on data collection and processing. Hard drive manufacturers are focusing on high-capacity and high-performance storage products while addressing supply tightness. The overall storage industry fundamentals are benefiting.

Increased Tariff Uncertainty Puts Pressure on Consumer Electronics

The current average tariff rate is approximately 15%. If a new round of tariffs is implemented as scheduled in August, it could rise to 20%. Key raw materials such as copper and semiconductors may face higher tariffs, increasing consumer-side uncertainty and impacting demand for PCs and smartphones. Citi advises avoiding consumer-related stocks.


Citi is optimistic about AI-related communications and storage sectors

US optical/comms infra basket: Coherent, Ciena, Lumentum; IIVI merged→COHR


The overall storage industry fundamentals are benefiting

High-capacity HDD storage basket: Seagate (STX), Western Digital (WDC)


Citi advises avoiding consumer-related stocks

Consumer electronics proxied by XLY consumer discretionary ETF


Summary: HBM supplier consolidation post-HBM4 favors SK Hynix and Micron over Samsung, which faces difficulty breaking into key customers like AMD and ASIC makers.

Here are some insights from Micron at the KeyBanc Forum:

“With HBM becoming more customized, it’s highly likely that each customer’s HBM suppliers will be narrowed down to one or two.”

What does this mean?

I’ll explain in this thread.🧵 https://t.co/uCkpIdnVLo

---

Micron stated that as major customers’ demand shifts to post-HBM4 standards, the trend will likely become even more pronounced for them to work with fewer suppliers rather than diversifying their memory sources.

This is a highly provocative comment — and, indirectly, a strong criticism of Samsung.

It stands in stark contrast to the previous narrative that customers would expand their pool of HBM suppliers, leading to falling HBM prices and even talk of oversupply.

---

Of course, it could also be an implicit suggestion that Samsung will enter the largest demand source — Nvidia. * Most companies outside of one or two will most likely work with only one or two HBM suppliers.

However, for companies like ASIC makers or AMD, which receive comparatively smaller volumes of HBM than Nvidia, this can be interpreted as confidence that they would choose SK hynix or Micron over Samsung, making it difficult for Samsung to break in.


they would choose SK hynix or Micron over Samsung


Summary: Morgan Stanley sharply revises up 2025/2026 global cloud capex forecasts; all four hyperscalers signal surging AI infrastructure investment above consensus.

Global Cloud Capex Outlook: Sharp Upward Revision (Morgan Stanley)

- Global cloud Capex for 2025 is estimated at $445B, a +56% Y/Y increase. This figure represents a +12 percentage point (approx. $35B) upward revision from two weeks ago.
- The majority of this upward revision is driven by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, which account for 77% of the total Capex growth.

2026 Outlook: Significantly Higher Upside Than Consensus

- While the 2026 consensus forecast is for +16% Y/Y growth ($518B), Morgan Stanley's estimate is for +31% Y/Y growth ($582B), projecting a Capex-to-revenue ratio of 21.6%—an all-time high.
- Morgan Stanley believes there is a high probability that Capex estimates will be revised further upward within the next 12 months.

Summary of Messages from the Big 4 Hyperscalers

- All four—MSFT, META, AMZN, and GOOGL—emphasized clear expectations for a return on investment from their Capex expansion and stressed the necessity of responding to the surging demand for AI infrastructure.
- MSFT provided guidance for F1Q26 Capex at $30B (an increase from the consensus of $23B).
- GOOGL raised its CY25 Capex guidance to $85B.
- META raised the lower end of its Capex guidance to $66B.


META raised the lower end of its Capex guidance to $66B

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta, which account for 77% of the total Capex growth


GOOGL raised its CY25 Capex guidance to $85B


we maintain our preference ranking of Asian memory makers as SKH > SEC > Nanya. We continue to support SKH's technology leadership in HBM and believe concerns about 2026 OP declines are excessive

Summary: JPMorgan maintains positive view on memory: SKH top pick on HBM tech lead, SEC OW on legacy upcycle underpricing + HBM4 upside, MU/DRAM ASP strength into 2026.

250821_Memory Market Update: HBM FAQs – JPMorgan

(1) In this report, we aim to address recent investor FAQs related to the HBM industry.

(2) The most frequently asked questions are:

2026 pricing outlook,
changes in logic die specifications and design ownership,
the impact of CSP CAPEX expansion on HBM supply/demand.
(3) In conclusion, we maintain our preference ranking of Asian memory makers as SKH > SEC > Nanya.

[HBM Base Die]

(4) Who is responsible for the HBM4E base die design? Why does NVIDIA want to directly control base die design?

(5) Up to HBM3E, since the design involved I/O circuit structure, memory makers traditionally handled the die design.

(6) However, starting with HBM4, the role and significance of this design has become much more important in controlling HBM performance.

(7) Recently, as reported by TrendForce [NVIDIA direct entry], discussions regarding customers [NVIDIA = memory makers’ customer] entering base die design are being actively debated among investors.

(8) In other words, NVIDIA may directly design the logic die for HBM4E at the 3nm process starting from late 2027.

(9) We believe NVIDIA’s insourcing signals 1) cost control [one of the main drivers of high BOM cost in HBM4], and 2) supply chain diversification.

[Are Memory Makers Being Excluded?]

(10) We believe it is an over-interpretation to say that memory makers are being excluded from HBM.

(11) In HBM4E, customers will have two choices:

(12) First, custom HBM dies embedding the GPU/ASIC customer’s core IP to pursue “performance differentiation.”

(13) Second, generic EKDLs where memory makers continue to handle design as they do today.

(14) Embedding IP into custom logic dies is important, but at the same time, integrating and stacking them into HBM is also critical.

(15) With HBM4E expanding to 16-high stacks, the stable yield and mass production capability of memory makers will become even more essential to supply chain stability.

(16) Therefore, it is too early to conclude that the value of memory makers will disappear or that HBM will become commoditized.

[Rising Importance of Thermal Management in HBM4]

(17) As HBM specification requirements increase, thermal characteristics are becoming even more important.

(18) Recently, customers have requested that memory makers raise HBM4 reading speed from ~8Gbps to ~10Gbps.

(19) This is because, with double the I/Os versus HBM3E, both performance and thermal control become far more critical.

(20) SKH’s advanced MR-MUF and Micron’s strong base die performance are currently viewed as superior to SEC up to the 5th generation HBM in terms of thermal management.

(21) NVIDIA’s chips consume ~700W per chip, far higher than other GPU/ASICs [300–400W].

(22) Therefore, the leading suppliers who can meet NVIDIA’s upgrade requests and thermal requirements will likely remain in a favorable position.

[HBM4 Qualification Tests: SKH Advantage Continues]

(23) SKH is about to begin customer sampling, with results expected around November this year.

(24) Meanwhile, Micron and SEC will start customer qualification in November, with results expected by February 2026 at the earliest.

(25) If the JEDEC standard [HBM4: ~8Gbps] does not change, this spec change will be optional rather than mandatory.

(26) However, if stricter spec requirements are added, the qualification process could lengthen, and the 2Q25 GPU launch schedule [with HBM4 onboard] could become challenging.

(27) If the launch of the new Rubin GPU slips to late 2026, SKH’s early qualification advantage may be diluted in its competition with MU/SEC.

[2026 HBM Pricing Outlook]

(28) We maintain our HBM4 ASP outlook at $19/GB, $2.4/Gb.

(29) The rationale is: 1) wafer die penalty from large die sizes, 2) yield loss from increased I/Os, 3) additional new logic die costs compared to prior generations.

(30) SKH management has also stated that “profitability maintenance” is the top priority for next-gen HBM, making a +30–40% premium vs. HBM3E reasonable.

(31) By contrast, the HBM3E market shows signs of easing.

(32) SEC is expected to start shipping HBM3E 12-high to Broadcom/AMD in 3Q25.

(33) We expect HBM3E bit mix to peak by 1H26, then gradually decline from 3Q26.

(34) We estimate 2026 HBM3E 12-high ASP to fall -11% YoY.

SKH: 4Q25 -7% → 1Q26 -7% → 2Q26 -7% → 4Q26 -10%

(35) For 2026, bull/bear case HBM operating profit is $18.2bn / $12.5bn respectively.

[CSP CAPEX Update]

(36) CSP CAPEX expansion is positively impacting HBM bit demand, with ASIC demand growth and B30A as key variables.

(37) Major firms reported 2Q25 cloud and AI revenue above expectations and raised CAPEX.

(38) While noise around AI ROIC persists, CAPEX trends remain upward.

(39) Our channel checks indicate HBM suppliers also see stronger procurement needs across customers versus 3 months ago, and that 2026 volumes will largely be decided in current CAPEX negotiations.

(40) In 2026–27, if ASIC demand rises +10%, HBM bit demand would increase by +3% and +2% respectively.

(41) Memory makers have recently detected production codes for B30A, which is reportedly targeting 2026 mass production.

(42) These products could use HBM3E 96GB or 144GB.

(43) If 1,000K chips are produced in 2026, this could add +3–4% to HBM bit demand.

[DRAM Outlook]

(44) The DRAM market is expected to remain tight into early 2026, driven by strong GPU server demand.

(45) Beyond HBM, ASP uptrends are also appearing in legacy DRAM/NAND.

(46) Micron recently raised guidance, which we attribute to D4/D5 price strength.

(47) ASP strength is expected to continue through 4Q25, with server customers likely to further raise GP server purchases over the next 6 months.

(48) Rather than the mild year-end decline initially expected, demand recovery looks stronger, and visibility into early 2026 is improving.

[Positive View on Memory Sector Maintained]

(49) We maintain a medium-term positive view on memory stocks.

(50) The main market debate centers on 2026 HBM ASP and supply-demand, with 2026 volume and price negotiations to be announced within 1–2 months.

(51) We continue to support SKH’s technology leadership in HBM and believe concerns about 2026 OP declines are excessive.

(52) The market is pricing in an annual OP growth scenario even in 2026, with gradual share price recovery expected into year-end.

(53) Over the past month, SEC has outperformed SKH, driven by 1) expectations of new foundry orders, and 2) better-than-expected 2H25 HBM outlook.

(54) HBM4 could provide SEC with a rebound catalyst, and we estimate SEC has a 30–40% chance of securing HBM4 orders in 2026.

(55) We also believe the recovery effect of the legacy memory upcycle has not been fully priced into SEC, and we maintain an OW rating on SEC as well.


we maintain an OW rating on SEC as well. We believe the recovery effect of the legacy memory upcycle has not been fully priced into SEC


The DRAM market is expected to remain tight into early 2026, driven by strong GPU server demand. ASP strength is expected to continue through 4Q25


we maintain our preference ranking of Asian memory makers as SKH > SEC > Nanya

Nanya Technology Corp listed on TWSE as 2408.TW


CITI lowered its NVIDIA price target to $200 due to intensifying TPU competition. forecasts NVIDIA's GPU revenue in 2026 will decline by about $12 billion

Summary: Shares Citi's PT cut on NVDA to $200 on XPU competition; implied AVGO beneficiary of GPU share shift.

CITI: NVIDIA Price Target Cut, Broadcom XPU and GPU Pose a Real Threat

• CITI lowered its NVIDIA price target to $200 due to intensifying TPU competition. As a result, it forecasts NVIDIA’s GPU revenue in 2026 will decline by about $12 billion. Specifically, the 2026 XPU market is expected to grow +53% YoY, significantly outpacing the AI GPU revenue growth rate of +34% YoY. This growth will be mainly driven by production capacity expansions at Google, Meta, and Amazon.

$NVDA $AVGO


TP was raised from NT1,210 to NT1,370... TP was raised to NT$1,310... TP was raised to NT$1,275... N2 revenue contribution is expected to be much larger than N3 during its initial ramp-up phase

Summary: Shares multiple analyst upgrades (GS/Nomura/JPM/Citi) all raising TPs and EPS on TSMC; relayed bullish thesis adopted by author.

250718_2Q25 TSMC Comment

(1) Goldman Sachs

- TSMC stated that there were no signs of softening demand from AI customers, delivering a positive earnings announcement.

- Consequently, the N2 revenue contribution is expected to be much larger than N3 during its initial ramp-up phase, especially in the first two years, indicating future strength in the HPC segment.

- N5/N3 wafer revenue estimates were upgraded, and the 2026 5nm/CoWoS ASP growth rates were raised from +3%/+5% to +7%/+8% respectively.

- For 2026 GPM, the forecast was raised by +380BP from the previous 54.1% to 57.9%. Ultimately, TP was raised from NT1,210toNT1,370.

(2) Nomura

- Leading-edge process supply remains tight, and customers are still focusing on securing 2026 leading-edge process and CoWoS CAPA rather than tariff uncertainties.

- CoWoS CAPA is judged not to exceed 90-100K per month by the end of 2026.

- It is highly likely that Apple will adopt N2 across all applications in 2026.

- EPS Growth for 2025-2027 was raised by +3-5%, and TP was raised to NT$1,310.

(3) JPMorgan

- Encouragingly robust margin despite the unprecedented strength of the TWD and margin dilution from overseas fabs.

- Q4 2025 is expected to be the bottom for GPM, and 2026 GPM is projected to improve due to 1) ASP increases, 2) N3 process yield improvements, and 3) accelerated cost reduction.

- CoWoS CAPA is expected to remain tight until 2026, and AI demand remains robust from CSPs, Sovereign AI, and new demand from China.

- EPS Growth for 2025-2026 was raised by +5% and +4% respectively, and TP was raised to NT$1,275.

(4) CITI

- Strong margins were recorded due to robust demand in leading-edge processes and high production efficiency, despite negative FX effects.

- N2 process will begin mass production from 2H25 and expand to a larger scale in 2H26; N2P/A16 processes are also expected to enter mass production from 2H26.

- NVIDIA's H20 has not yet received concrete orders, but products based on the license for the recent resumption of China exports will be able to meet China's AI demand.

- This is identified as a factor that can positively impact global AI growth and will be a favorable factor for the overall AI Value-Chain supply chain.

$TSM


Potential for Gradual Upside to Nvidia's Revenue Estimates... resumption of even partial revenue from the Chinese AI market... would have a substantial impact on Nvidia's overall revenue performance. This represents an upside not currently reflected in market consensus estimates.

Summary: Stifel analysis: NVDA China chip resumption = gradual revenue upside above consensus + long-term US-China trade thaw benefiting US AI ecosystem.

Stifel) Our Analysis on Nvidia Resuming AI Chip Production Compliant with China Export Controls

Reports last week indicated that Nvidia is set to release another scaled-down version of its AI chip for the Chinese market. Currently, U.S. export controls restrict China's access to cutting-edge AI infrastructure, leading Nvidia to sell a series of modified chips compliant with these export control regulations in the Chinese region.

The upcoming AI chip platform is a derivative of the server-oriented 'RTX Pro 6000D' platform, expected to be priced between approximately $6,500 and $8,000. This chip will not include Nvidia's proprietary networking technology, 'NVLink'. Reports related to this processor emerged ahead of the International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing this week.

Our analysis of this news is as follows:

1. Potential for Gradual Upside to Nvidia's Revenue Estimates: Following the most recent U.S. export control measures, Nvidia has not included China-based revenue in its revenue guidance. Although this new chip is not expected to generate as much revenue as the previously restricted H20 chips, the resumption of even partial revenue from the Chinese AI market (estimated by CEO Jensen Huang to reach $50 billion in the coming years) would have a substantial impact on Nvidia's overall revenue performance. This represents an upside not currently reflected in market consensus estimates.

2. Potential Thawing of U.S.-China Trade Relations: Beyond a short-term perspective, and considering CEO Jensen Huang's direct communication with the White House, we view Nvidia's resumption of AI chip sales for the Chinese market as indicative of improving prospects for U.S.-China trade relations. If this holds true, it is expected to act as an upside factor that positively impacts the entire U.S. AI ecosystem in the long run, much like the proverb, "a rising tide lifts all boats."

However, these potential tailwinds are still several years away, and inherent obstacles in U.S.-China relations, such as national security concerns, still persist. Therefore, we will continue to pay close attention to further news related to this and continuously monitor the evolving AI supply chain.


Summary: Goldman Sachs downgrades SK Hynix to Neutral from Buy (PT KRW 310K) on 2026 HBM oversupply, ASP decline, and 19%-below-consensus operating profit forecast.

SK Hynix, Downgraded to Neutral (Goldman Sachs)

- Investment opinion has been downgraded from Buy to Neutral, with a target price of KRW 310,000, representing approximately 5% upside potential from the current stock price.

- The long-term growth potential of the HBM market itself is positive, but from 2026 onwards, oversupply and intensified competition are expected to exert downward pressure on prices.

- It is highly probable that HBM prices will record their first decline in 2026. Customer bargaining power is strengthening, and SK Hynix, with its high proportion of GPU-bound HBM, is vulnerable to price defense.

- In 2025, strong demand for HBM and general-purpose memory will lead to upward revisions in earnings. However, the 2026 earnings outlook has been lowered under the premise that HBM average selling prices (ASPs) will fall by a double-digit percentage.

- The 2026 operating profit forecast is calculated to be approximately 19% lower than the consensus, predicting negative growth unlike market expectations (17% annual growth).

- SK Hynix's stock price has risen 73% year-to-date, outperforming KOSPI (which rose 33%). It is assessed that the short-term valuation burden has increased.

- Currently trading at a 12-month forward P/B of 1.8x (historical average 1.3x), it is judged that the risk and reward are nearly balanced.

- HBM demand is still predominantly driven by GPUs, but ASICs (application-specific AI chips) are rapidly increasing, leading the overall growth trend.
2026 HBM demand growth is expected to be 23% for GPUs and 82% for ASICs.
Within GPUs, the transition from B300 to Rubin shows limited increase in HBM content, leading to a slowdown in GPU contribution growth.
ASIC families like TPU and Trainium are seeing rapid increases in HBM content, leading to strong demand growth momentum.

- On the HBM supply side, total industry production capacity is expected to expand to 485K WPM (wafer per month) level by the end of 2026, with supply likely to exceed demand.
Supply growth rate is revised up to 48%, while demand growth is expected at 38%.
2026 HBM ASP is projected to decrease by approximately 10% year-on-year.

Scenario-based Outlook:
Base Scenario: HBM3E ASP drop of 30%, HBM4 premium of 45%, HBM margin of 59%, operating profit of KRW 37 trillion (19% lower than consensus).
Bull Case Scenario: Samsung Electronics' delayed entry to key customers, HBM3E ASP drop of 10%, HBM4 premium of 55%, margin of 65%, operating profit of KRW 45 trillion (at consensus level).
Bear Case Scenario: Samsung Electronics' early entry, HBM3E ASP drop of 35%, HBM4 premium of 35%, margin of 50%, operating profit of KRW 32 trillion (29% lower than consensus).

Q2 2025 earnings are revised upward to around KRW 9 trillion in operating profit, expected to meet expectations due to stronger demand compared to the previous quarter.


Summary: UBS data shows AMD taking share from Intel in client and server CPUs; AMD expected to keep expanding share through 2025 at Intel's expense.

CPU Industry Update: Server CPUs Continue to Outperform Seasonality, AMD's Momentum Persists
UBS (T. Arcuri, 13/08/25)

UBS data shows that server CPU shipments in the second calendar quarter (CQ2) once again surpassed seasonal trends, while PC MPU (Micro-Processor Unit) shipments fell below seasonality. AMD continues to take share from Intel in both the client and server segments, particularly expanding its market share in dollar terms.

PC MPU Below Seasonality
According to Mercury Research data, global PC (desktop + notebook) MPU shipments in CQ2:25 grew approximately 2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). This is below the 3-year seasonal average and showed no clear signs of tariff-related pull-in. Desktop and notebook CPU shipments increased by 1.6% and 2.0% QoQ, respectively. Intel's notebook share gained 190 basis points (bps) QoQ, but its desktop share fell by 420 bps QoQ, maintaining an overall market share of about 76%. In dollar terms, AMD's market share increased by 120 bps QoQ, benefiting from a $10 increase in notebook Average Selling Price (ASP) (a $30 increase on a trailing-twelve-month basis) and a $3 increase in desktop ASP.

Server CPU Shipments Again Exceed Seasonality
Server CPU shipments were flat QoQ, significantly outperforming the 3-year seasonal trend of a ~4% decline. Shipments were up 18% year-over-year (YoY), marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth and reflecting strong cloud demand. Intel's unit shipments were flat QoQ (+13% YoY), driven by a 12% QoQ increase in Emerald Rapids and a small-scale ramp-up of Granite Rapids/Sierra Forest; Sapphire Rapids, while gradually declining, remains the main product. AMD's overall shipments grew 1% QoQ (+34% YoY), driven by an 88% QoQ increase in Turin to 435,000 units, which was partially offset by declines in Bergamo and Genoa shipments. ARM-based server CPUs grew 15% QoQ (+147% YoY), but their absolute scale remains small. AMD's server CPU unit market share held steady at about 27%, while its dollar market share increased by 150 bps QoQ.

2025 Outlook
UBS forecasts global PC shipments to grow by approximately 2% YoY in 2025, a downward revision from the previous forecast of 5%. This is mainly because the replacement cycle benefits from the end-of-life of Windows 10 are being offset by uncertainties in the tariff environment, declining commercial procurement budgets, and macroeconomic pressures on the consumer side. Global PC shipments in 2025 are projected to be around 249 million units, with desktop and notebook shipments up 1.1% and 2.2% YoY, respectively. In this environment, AMD is still expected to continue expanding its market share in both the client and server segments, directly eroding Intel's share.


it's not too late to buy SanDisk and Kioxia yet, right? I should buy them now

Summary: Author signals intent to buy both SanDisk and Kioxia, implying bullish forward stance on both.

SanDisk (spun off from WD) listed on Nasdaq as SNDK

Fuck, it’s not too late to buy SanDisk and Kioxia yet, right? I should buy them now. https://t.co/7rHeZIrHG8