HBM and DRAM will continue to serve as main memory for large-scale model training and general-purpose inference servers... the memory hierarchy spanning SRAM, HBM, and DRAM will become increasingly multi-layered, ultimately driving an expansion of the total addressable market (TAM) for the memory industry as a whole

Summary: SRAM-based inference chips are not a substitute for HBM/DRAM; memory TAM expands as hierarchy becomes more granular, keeping HBM demand intact.

Global HBM memory basket: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron

KIS: Commentary on KOSPI Decline

KOSPI Falls on Reports of NVIDIA's Upcoming Inference Chip Using Groq Architecture

Memory stocks weakened on news that NVIDIA is developing a new inference chip leveraging Groq's on-chip SRAM-based architecture. The concern was that SRAM usage could reduce demand for main memory, including HBM. NVIDIA is reportedly set to unveil the architecture at GTC in March.

SRAM Is Far More Expensive and Lower in Capacity Than DRAM

The claim that the emergence of a "low-cost" SRAM-based inference chip will reduce usage of existing main memory such as HBM reflects a poor understanding of memory. SRAM has a larger cell area and lower density than DRAM, making its cost per bit significantly higher. SRAM generally requires 5–10x the die area of DRAM for the same capacity. Its structure also makes it difficult to scale density, limiting capacity expansion. For these reasons, SRAM has historically been used for cache or on-chip buffer applications requiring extreme low latency, rather than serving as main memory for storing large volumes of data.

SRAM Architecture Is Not a Substitute for DRAM—It's a Separate Option

SRAM-centric architectures offer the advantage of much lower access latency and minimized data movement compared to DRAM. NVIDIA therefore plans to leverage Groq's architecture in a form optimized for specific inference workloads that are difficult to address with GPUs. Ultimately, the adoption of an SRAM-centric architecture should be understood not as a strategy to replace HBM or DRAM, but as a distinct option for specific data center workloads requiring ultra-low latency and for Physical AI edge applications such as robotics and autonomous driving that demand real-time responsiveness. In fact, OpenAI is already deploying Cerebras's SRAM-centric chips in its data centers, and the inference services built on them charge higher API costs than standard GPU-based inference services.

The Memory Hierarchy Is Becoming More Granular, Expanding the Overall TAM

The proliferation of Groq-based SRAM-centric architectures will further segment the memory hierarchy within AI infrastructure. HBM and DRAM will continue to serve as main memory for large-scale model training and general-purpose inference servers, while SRAM-based architectures will fulfill a separate role for ultra-low-latency inference and edge AI. As the AI industry advances, the memory hierarchy spanning SRAM, HBM, and DRAM will become increasingly multi-layered, ultimately driving an expansion of the total addressable market (TAM) for the memory industry as a whole.


Summary: Bearish AAPL in reaction to Samsung doubling Google Gemini AI devices, implying Apple loses competitive ground.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

$goog

SEOUL, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics plans to double this year the number of its mobile devices with AI features powered by Google's Gemini, its co-CEO said, which would give the U.S. firm an edge over rivals as the global race in artificial intelligence hots up.


Summary: UBS reiterates Buy on Samsung Electronics, raises PT to Won172,000 on peak DRAM profitability, strong DDR/NAND pricing cycle, and HBM4 progress; 32% above consensus OP forecast.

UBS: Samsung Electronics
Back to peak DRAM profitability in earnest

DDR and NAND contract pricing off to a roaring start
4Q25 DRAM blended ASPs ended up stronger than we initially expected post prelims (link), as Samsung successfully raised server DRAM contract pricing by about 65% QoQ. We hence now estimate total DRAM blended ASPs up 43% QoQ in 4Q25 (DDR: +47%). From this already high level, we believe that Samsung should be able to increase blended DDR contract pricing by 56% QoQ in 1Q26, and total blended DRAM ASPs by 50%. We forecast NAND ASPs up 27% QoQ in 1Q26. This means that Samsung DDR contract pricing could be close to the 3Q18 peak. Even from that elevated level, we expect DDR contract pricing to continue to increase till 1Q27, and for NAND, 3Q26. This would propel FCF to Won105tn in 2026E, and could pave the way for Won45tn of exceptional dividend. We see further upside to the stock from 1/ strong earnings upgrades ahead; 2/ investors re-thinking the duration of the cycle, but also, longer term economics - both offsetting HBM execution still in flux.

Getting closer to deliver HBM4 working samples
Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun reportedly messaged earlier this year that Samsung is "back" with HBM4 competitiveness (link). We believe that Samsung is getting closer to send HBM4 working samples, with a qualification window at Nvidia later in 1H26. We believe SK Hynix has been shipping HBM4 to Nvidia since last October. We maintain our forecast for HBM volume shipments to reach 7.5bn Gb (+77% YoY) in 2026, after 4.2bn Gb in '25E.

Significantly increasing forecasts, again
We increase our '26 OP forecast to Won171tn (was Won135tn), 32% above VA consensus of Won130tn. This is on the back of revised up DDR/NAND contract pricing forecasts, more than offsetting downside in Smartphone margins. For the same reasons, we raise '27E OP to Won181tn (was Won144tn), 10% above consensus of Won165tn. We now have DRAM operating margins peaking out at 75% in 4Q26E, compared to prior peak of 72% in 3Q18.

Valuation: PT Won172,000 from Won154,000 - Buy
We value Samsung ordinary shares at 2.03x NTM book (was 1.97x) considering our 2026-30 average ROE estimate of 18.0% (was 16.3%) and CoE of 8.9% (was 8.3%). We also raise our Samsung GDR PT to US$2,970, from US$2,610, with the latest FX.


The memory market has entered a "Hyper-Bull" phase that surpasses the historic peak of 2018. Driven by relentless demand for AI and server capacity, suppliers' pricing power has reached an all-time high.

Summary: Memory sector in 'Hyper-Bull' phase with pricing power at all-time highs; RDIMM prices projected to hit $700 by March 2026, potentially $1,000 later in 2026.

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

Memory Prices Surge ~50% in Q4 2025, Additional Increases Expected in H1 2026

- Memory Price Trend: The price of 64GB RDIMM, which was $255 in Q3 2025, surged to $450 in Q4 2025 and is projected to reach $700 by March 2026
- Changes in BoM Cost Structure: Rising memory prices are fundamentally reshaping hardware manufacturers’ BoM structures
- Memory Supply Outlook: Capex is increasing, but supply easing is expected to be delayed

The memory market has entered a “Hyper-Bull” phase that surpasses the historic peak of 2018. Driven by relentless demand for AI and server capacity, suppliers’ pricing power has reached an all-time high. According to Counterpoint Research’s recently released [Memory Monthly Pricing Tracker (Jan 2026)](https://t.co/1xMh4URa0Y), memory prices are forecast to surge 40–50% in Q4 2025, with an additional 40–50% increase in Q1 2026 and roughly 20% further rise in Q2 2026.

Memory Price Trend: Breaking Historical Records

The 64GB RDIMM price, which stood at $255 in Q3 2025, jumped to $450 in Q4 2025 and is expected to hit $700 by March 2026.

- The $1,000 Era: It would not be surprising to see prices reach $1,000 this year. This equates to approximately $1.95 per Gb—nearly double the 2018 peak of $1.00 per Gb.

Changes in BoM Cost Structure

Rising memory prices are fundamentally altering hardware manufacturers’ BoM structures.

- Impact on Smartphones: As of 2025, memory accounted for more than 10% of the iPhone 17 Pro Max BoM, a significant increase from 8% for the iPhone 12 Pro Max in 2020. For flagship models equipped with 16–24GB LPDDR5X RAM and 512GB–1TB UFS 4.0 storage, recent price surges could push memory costs to over 20% of the total BoM.
- Pressure on Legacy Products: Major players including Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and China’s CXMT are shifting production to high-margin server DDR5, rapidly reducing supply of older technologies such as LPDDR4 and eMMC.

Memory Supply Outlook: Capex Rising, Supply Relief Delayed

- Supply-Demand Gap: DRAM production in 2026 is projected to grow 24% year-over-year. Although capital expenditure (capex) is expanding, it is expected to take time before actual demand can be fully met.

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https://t.co/BPCxlsjAOC


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley PT raise to ¥33,000 on Kioxia; CY2026 NAND ASP forecast lifted to +100% YoY with sharply upgraded earnings outlook.

Morgan Stanley raises Kioxia target price to ¥33,000

The firm significantly raised its CY2026 ASP growth forecast for Kioxia from +75% YoY to over +100% YoY, with Q1 ASP expected to surge approximately 90% QoQ, followed by an additional 10% QoQ increase in Q2.

This suggests Kioxia has achieved a breakthrough in price negotiations with its key OEM customer, implying that Apple will have to procure NAND at significantly higher prices than previously anticipated.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley sharply upgraded Kioxia's earnings outlook. For FY2027 (ending March 2027), the revenue forecast was raised from ¥2,689.8 billion to ¥4,280.1 billion, non-GAAP operating profit more than doubled from ¥1,171.8 billion to ¥2,723.2 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 64%. EPS is projected to jump from ¥1,550.2 to ¥3,562.9, with net income expected to reach ¥1,930.3 billion.


Securities analysts have raised the possibility that a new substrate supply shortage cycle could emerge in 2027. AI-related demand remains robust, and Unimicron's Guangfu Fab 1 is actively ramping next-generation substrate production for GPU customers. Unimicron is a key substrate supplier to multiple ASIC companies and holds a de facto sole-source position with certain customers; company operating momentum is expected to grow in tandem with expanding AI accelerator shipments.

Summary: Bullish Unimicron: ABF substrate shortage cycle feared 2027, sole-source ASIC position, 40% capacity expansion, AI revenue ~60% of total, improving product mix.

Unimicron Technology listed on TWSE as 3037.TW

▶ Unimicron: Customers Rush to Lock In ABF Substrate LTAs — Supply Shortage Feared for Next Year

- Amid continued upstream material cost inflation, IC substrate maker Unimicron will implement an additional ABF substrate price hike starting in March.

- Customers are accelerating the signing of long-term agreements (LTAs) with Unimicron to secure production capacity; most contracts span 5 years, with some at 3 or 7 years.

- LTA-related prepayments are expected to begin flowing in this year and will be used to fund ABF substrate capacity expansion investments.

- Unimicron's ABF substrate production capacity is projected to grow approximately 40% by year-end versus end of last year.

- Unimicron shares are currently subject to 5-minute trading restrictions; the stock hit the daily limit-down yesterday, but was trading up approximately 7.67% at NT$449 as of 9:42 AM today.

- AI-related substrate revenue is expected to account for approximately 60% of total revenue this year, encompassing demand from GPUs, ASICs, AI peripherals, and general-purpose server CPUs.

- Securities analysts have raised the possibility that a new substrate supply shortage cycle could emerge in 2027.

- AI-related demand remains robust, and Unimicron's Guangfu Fab 1 is actively ramping next-generation substrate production for GPU customers.

- Unimicron is a key substrate supplier to multiple ASIC companies and holds a de facto sole-source position with certain customers; company operating momentum is expected to grow in tandem with expanding AI accelerator shipments.

- Unimicron is restructuring its production mix this year — planning to expand ABF substrate capacity by approximately 40% while reducing BT substrate capacity by approximately 15%.

- The shift toward high-value-added products is expected to improve the overall product mix; the market currently forecasts full-year 2026 EPS of approximately NT$14.25.

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https://t.co/irv8om7ZyL


Summary: SK Hynix benefits from sustained high DRAM margins as conversion investments tighten supply; Micron flagged as a risk via aggressive capacity expansion.

Highlighting Profitability of 'General-Purpose' DRAM, SK Hynix Accelerates Conversion Investments

SK Hynix is undertaking a major overhaul of its Icheon DRAM lines. Amid the strong upward trend in conventional DRAM prices, the company plans to convert to the most advanced products to enhance productivity.

At the same time, analysts suggest that strategic production cuts due to conversion investments could also be expected. In a situation where supply shortages persist, shipment volumes will be adjusted during the conversion investment period. As a result, the high-margin trend for DRAM is likely to continue for some time.

◇ Expanding Conversion of Legacy DRAM Lines to Cutting-Edge Lines

According to industry sources on the 22nd, SK Hynix is considering converting all of its 10nm-class 4th generation (1a) DRAM lines in Icheon to 10nm-class 6th generation (1c) DRAM lines. Initially, the plan was to maintain a certain volume of 1a DRAM lines, but the direction is shifting toward converting them all to 1c.

This is influenced by the recent strong upward trend in conventional DRAM prices. Currently, DRAM is facing an unprecedented shortage due to the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) investments by big tech companies. Some consumers are even equipping PCs with DDR4 due to the burden of DDR5 prices.

Spot prices for DRAM have shown sharp monthly increases in recent months. Market research firm TrendForce forecasts that DRAM prices will rise by 55-60% in the first quarter alone. Including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the increase is expected to be 50-55%. Among these, LPDDR prices are reportedly rising the most sharply.

The background for SK Hynix's aggressive conversion investments includes the ability to naturally increase DRAM production through generational shifts. SK Hynix has stated that the productivity of 1c DDR5 has improved by more than 30% compared to the previous generation, 10nm-class 5th generation (1b) DDR5.

Considering that the existing lines were for 1a DRAM, the productivity improvement is expected to be even greater. Of course, 1c DRAM has drawbacks. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) required for conversion investments and the increased use of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) photoresist (PR) result in significantly higher cost burdens than previous generations.

However, in the current phase where DRAM margins are high, these cost burdens are not seen as major constraints. The industry estimates that conventional DRAM margins have reached 60-70%. With DRAM prices expected to rise further in the first quarter, margins are likely to improve even more.

The 1b DRAM lines in Icheon will be maintained. Along with the M15X 1b DRAM lines in Cheongju, they are estimated to be used for HBM core die production.

Once SK Hynix's DRAM conversion investments are completed, only the Wuxi fab will remain producing 1a DRAM. Since advanced front-end equipment like EUV cannot be imported to Wuxi, this effectively reorganizes all fabs to the most advanced processes.

A semiconductor industry official said, "I understand that the decision was recently made to convert the 1a DRAM lines that were planned to be retained (in the Icheon DRAM fab) to 1c lines," adding, "As a result, additional investments by SK Hynix are expected."

◇ Warnings of Demand Contraction Amid DRAM Price Surge

In some parts of the memory industry, there are concerns that continued sharp rises in DRAM prices could lead to a contraction in customer demand.

This phenomenon is already appearing first in consumer product segments. Consumer resistance to rising laptop prices is reportedly significant. TrendForce forecasts that global laptop shipments in 2026 will be only 173 million units, a 5.4% decrease from the previous year.

The aggressive capacity expansions by companies like Micron and Kioxia are also pointed out as risk factors that could lower memory margins in the future. Micron recently acquired Taiwan's PSMC P5 fab. The plan is to produce DRAM there starting from the second half of next year.

A memory industry official noted, "It's true that orders from major customers are continuing," but added, "If memory prices exceed a certain level, there will come a time when key customers reduce their CAPEX, and that could be a turning point for the market."

---

https://t.co/2PlZ84rvnn


The aggressive capacity expansions by companies like Micron and Kioxia are also pointed out as risk factors that could lower memory margins in the future


Summary: Goldman Sachs sees 1Q26 DRAM/NAND pricing rising above 4Q25 levels, with upside to consensus earnings for memory names.

Goldman Sachs: Memory prices are expected to post strong growth again in 1Q26

"Based on our discussion with investors, expectations for 1Q26 conventional memory pricing growth has been consistently rising throughout the past few weeks, and now at a level similar to or even higher than the increase seen in 4Q25. Based on our checks, certain customers in the mobile market have started to accept 1Q26 pricing quotes where for both DRAM and NAND the growth rates are meaningfully higher than what was agreed in 4Q25. As a result, we expect other customers to likely agree on a meaningful memory pricing growth in 1Q26, and along with the rapidly increasing spot pricing, there could be additional upside to the Street's expectation on near-term memory pricing and hence earnings for the memory names."


Summary: Nomura raises SK Hynix 2026/27F OP estimates sharply on commodity DRAM/NAND price beats; author shares the bullish revision.

Nomura SK Hynix Comment: SK Hynix 2026/27F Operating Profit Forecast at $130.8B / $184.8B

"We estimate that commodity memory price increases in 1Q26 significantly exceeded our initial expectations. We estimate commodity DRAM/NAND prices rose +90%/+60% QoQ in 1Q, substantially surpassing our previous forecasts of DRAM +56% and NAND +40% QoQ. Reflecting this, we raise our 1Q26F operating profit (OP) estimate for Hynix from KRW 29T to KRW 36T. We also raise our full-year 2026F commodity DRAM/NAND price growth forecasts from +126%/+115% YoY to +176%/+146% YoY. Accordingly, we revise up our 2026/27F operating profit (OP) estimates to KRW 189T / KRW 267T. We expect Hynix to achieve DRAM/NAND operating profit margins (OPM) of 76%/57% in 2026F. Factoring in higher quarterly performance bonus costs, we estimate 2026F DRAM/NAND cost per bit will increase +26%/+18% YoY, respectively."


Summary: Bearish SK Hynix margins: HBM4E on TSMC 3nm drives substantial cost/margin compression vs Samsung's 4nm approach.

Samsung is reportedly using an improved 4nm process for HBM4E compared to HBM4... but can it really beat SK Hynix's HBM4E, which uses TSMC's 3nm? I'm worried about this.

Of course, SK Hynix will see significant — or rather, substantial — margin compression. TSMC's 3nm is far more expensive than 12nm, after all...

"No Choice" — Samsung's 'Bold Gambit' Deepens SK Hynix's Dilemma

"Our stance is to dramatically increase supply of premium HBM4 (6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory) to NVIDIA."

These were the words of Samsung Electronics' Hwang Sang-joon, EVP and Head of Memory Development https://t.co/lw7fcvGmkB


Summary: GF Securities reiterates Buy on ONTO, raises PT to $282 on HBM VPA, GAA/2.5D-3D share gains, and new 2027 catalysts (SoIC, panel packaging, CPO).

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

《GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Communications》

Onto Innovation 4Q25 Review: Upside Potential Remains

Maintaining Buy rating, target price raised to $282: Onto Innovation's 4Q25 revenue came in at $267M, largely in line with expectations. The company guided 1Q26 revenue to a range of $275–285M, with 2Q26 revenue expected to surpass $300M. Memory and GAA capacity buildouts, combined with the company's continued market share gains in 2.5D/3D, underpin robust growth. Management indicated that in 2026, advanced packaging revenue will grow 30% and advanced node revenue will grow 15%. G5 qualification is expected to be completed in 1H26, and potential G5 applications present additional upside to earnings. We forecast Onto Innovation's 2026/2027 revenue at $1.3B/$1.5B respectively, and derive our $282 target price based on 30x 2027E P/E.

Market share gains accelerating: The company's market share expansion is progressing well. Management announced a large-scale HBM Volume Purchase Agreement (VPA) with a leading HBM customer worth over $240M, of which more than $60M is earmarked specifically for 3D bump metrology. This single HBM order alone is nearly equivalent to the company's entire AI packaging revenue for full-year 2025. In CoWoS, G5 has completed qualification at a foundry customer, and the company is recapturing sub-micron inspection market share. Additionally, Firefly and Iris thin-film metrology continue to drive share gains.

New catalysts emerging for 2027: We highlight several new growth vectors for Onto Innovation. 1) SoIC: NVIDIA's Feynman platform will adopt a 3D architecture combining SoIC and CoWoS. SoIC is poised to become a core growth driver in 2027, and the company's G5 product holds distinct advantages in both sub-micron inspection and 3D applications. 2) Panel-level packaging: Onto Innovation secured orders for JetStep and 8 Firefly systems in 4Q25 to support capacity at a panel-level packaging facility; G5 equipment is expected to be delivered to TSMC by year-end for a panel packaging pilot line. 3) CPO: The company has initiated early-stage engagements with CPO customers, including V-groove metrology solutions. CPO is expected to become a meaningful revenue contributor starting in 2027.

$ONTO


Summary: Author expects Broadcom to invest in Intel next, following Apple and Nvidia; implicitly bullish on both INTC and AVGO.

It’s being reported that Apple has invested in Intel, following Nvidia.

I expect Broadcom will be next.

$INTC

BREAKING: President Trump says $AAPL Apple has invested in Intel.

About the $INTC Intel investment, he says:

“They did a great deal for themselves because their stock has gone up. As soon as we (US Government) went in, $AAPL Apple went in, $NVDA Nvidia went in. A lot of smart https://t.co/0Y3BwaNwme


It's being reported that Apple has invested in Intel, following Nvidia.


Summary: Bearish AAPL: street too optimistic; DRAM price hikes from Samsung and SK Hynix will pressure Apple margins.

Samsung's DS division has recently raised the price of DRAM supplied to Samsung's MX division by about 60–70%.

They’re pushing such an absurd condition even on MX, which is part of the same family— so just imagine how much they’re raising prices for other companies.
I think the street is way too optimistic about Apple. Samsung and SK hynix are already planning to raise DRAM prices to Apple starting this month.


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley report naming NVDA as top pick; strong customer preference, 80%+ NVIDIA growth among ASIC/AMD users, Rubin demand in CY26.

Morgan Stanley has published an excellent report.

To quote a few particularly memorable lines:

“There appears to be a cohort of investors who are positioning 2026 as the exit point for memory.”

“The reason we named NVIDIA—not Micron—as our top pick is that investor sentiment toward NVIDIA is more negative than toward Micron.”

“This is by no means a negative call on MU.”

“Based on our checks, we continue to see a strong preference for NVIDIA in many cases—even in areas where competitors emphasize lower total cost of ownership (TCO). In addition, our checks suggest that the two largest ASIC users and the two potentially largest AMD users are each likely to grow their business with NVIDIA by 80%+ in CY26.”

“However, the product that every customer is most focused on—including ASIC and AMD users—is NVIDIA’s Rubin, which will ship in the second half. Customers will only be able to secure a portion of the volumes they want, so much of the competitive dynamic is still likely to be ‘Blackwell vs. competitors,’ and we expect Blackwell to hold up very well.”

“While GPUs (processors) themselves may become less scarce soon, the real bottleneck could shift to other components and infrastructure (memory, storage, optics, power, CPUs, etc.). This transition could cause some near-term volatility in the stock, but it may ultimately work in NVIDIA’s favor from a share perspective.”


Summary: Long NAND makers (SNDK, MU) on 3-year supply discipline + fat margins; short NAND equipment makers on weak demand outlook.

Over the next three years, NAND companies are basically going to be printing money. Just look at these insane gross margins.

$SNDK $MU https://t.co/aGz3aW28io

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This implies two major things:

1. NAND makers have little incentive to ramp supply, so the NAND market is likely to remain meaningfully undersupplied over the next three years.

2. As a result, NAND-focused equipment makers are unlikely to see strong performance, and we would expect their results to remain relatively weak.


NAND-focused equipment makers are unlikely to see strong performance, and we would expect their results to remain relatively weak

NAND equipment makers: AMAT, Lam, TEL, KLA


Summary: Very bullish on HBM makers; NVIDIA's bandwidth-driven architecture pursuit means HBM demand will keep growing with each GPU generation.

Seeing this remark from Ian Buck, I definitely realized something. (Very bullish on HBM makers)

Quote (Ian Buck): reducing token cost is the goal that every generation of NVIDIA architecture pursues.

We keep thinking about what technologies to adopt and scale, and where we should place our bets.

Including which communities or partners we should bring technology in from.

Because the goal is not to improve performance by a few percent, but by “multiples.”

Then wouldn’t today’s MoE models also be able to achieve multiple-fold performance gains?

We don’t hesitate to spend more money per GPU.

HBM is far more expensive than conventional memory.

But that only increases cost by a few percent.

On the other hand, if you attach HBM and connect that enormous bandwidth to the floating-point compute units,

end to end, you can achieve multiple-fold performance improvements overall.

Did you know NVIDIA also runs a podcast?

In it, Ian Buck explains MoE himself, and it’s genuinely fascinating.

It’s a perfect choice for the first podcast of the new year.

The link is below. https://t.co/RTs81lzC1v


Summary: Morgan Stanley raises ASML PT to €1,400 on surging EUV demand; raises TSMC unit estimates and sees Intel/Samsung momentum building in 2027.

Morgan Stanley: Raising ASML’s price target to €1,400:

Demand in advanced logic seeing upside, at least at TSMC.

At its 4Q25 print earlier this week, TSMC gave a 2026 capex guide to $52-56bn, up 32% y/y at the mid-point (2025: $40.9bn; 2024: $29.8bn), with 70-80% allocated to advanced processes. The company intimated that this could go higher again over the next few years. In alignment with this we raise our TSMC estimate to 29 units in 2026 (prior c.20) and raise our 2027 units from 28 to 40 as we pull forward more capacity build at A14 next year in readiness for 2028 use. We continue to see c.18 low NA EUV tools shipping to TSMC in 2025. Aside TSMC, we expect improving momentum with process development at Intel and Samsung to materialise and shift both to taking 5-6 EUV tools each for foundry/logic in 2027 given our expectations for emerging customer momentum. Altogether we expect c.52 tools to ship to logic/foundry in 2027 vs our prior estimate of 25-30.

$ASML $TSM $INTC


we raise our TSMC estimate to 29 units in 2026 (prior c.20) and raise our 2027 units from 28 to 40


we expect improving momentum with process development at Intel and Samsung to materialise and shift both to taking 5-6 EUV tools each for foundry/logic in 2027


Bernstein remains very bearish on Kioxia. They've effectively issued a sell call and are recommending investors take profits. (Target price: ¥7,000 vs. current share price: ¥22,845.)

Summary: Shares Bernstein's sell call on Kioxia with PT ¥7,000 vs ¥22,845 current price; author adopts the bearish direction by relaying it.

Bernstein remains very bearish on Kioxia.

They’ve effectively issued a sell call and are recommending investors take profits. (Target price: ¥7,000 vs. current share price: ¥22,845.) https://t.co/b9MEVySUmM

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I still don’t really understand why Bernstein sees it this way. For context, Bernstein has been warning about YMTC for a long time, and they’ve generally had a negative view on memory stocks.


Summary: Shares Deutsche Bank view: TSMC capacity crunch forces top customers to Samsung/Intel alternatives, reducing TSMC's advanced-node share from 95% to 90%.

Deutsche Bank: As TSMC's capacity fills up, Samsung and Intel are expected to benefit from the "6 major customers" including Apple and Nvidia

Deutsche Bank stated in a recently released research report that global semiconductor foundry giant TSMC is facing a "happy dilemma." Its 3nm process production capacity is extremely tight, with orders fully booked not only through 2026 but extending into 2027, leaving TSMC no choice but to significantly increase its capital expenditure plans.

This capacity bottleneck is reshaping the market landscape, prompting TSMC's top-tier customers—who have traditionally relied heavily on the company—to seriously consider Samsung and Intel as alternatives, Deutsche Bank noted.

Analysts including Robert Sanders pointed out in the report that TSMC has guided 2026 capital expenditures at $52–56 billion. This substantially exceeds Deutsche Bank's estimate of $50 billion and the market consensus of $46 billion.

The analysts assessed that this guidance effectively acknowledges that TSMC's 2025 capital expenditure plan was "too conservative" relative to the explosive AI demand. The current situation goes beyond mere excess demand for CoWoS packaging capacity; it reflects a severe supply shortage in core wafer fabrication capacity—particularly the 3nm process.

This supply-demand imbalance is creating a direct market overflow effect. Despite Samsung and Intel having a "chequered record" in foundry performance, Deutsche Bank emphasized that the "6 major customers"—Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and MediaTek—have no choice but to seek alternative production capacity. As a result, TSMC's share of the advanced-node foundry market is expected to decline from 95% to 90%.

Deutsche Bank noted that, given TSMC's full capacity booking for 2026 and order backlog extending into 2027, the sharp increase in spending is not surprising.

Previously, the initial bottleneck from the AI demand surge was concentrated in CoWoS packaging, causing some orders to overflow to ASE and Amkor. However, the situation has now become more severe, with demand significantly outstripping supply—especially for the 3nm process.

According to Deutsche Bank estimates, TSMC plans to expand 3nm monthly production capacity to 190,000 wafers (190k wpm) by the end of 2026, but this will still fall short of customer demand.

Deutsche Bank remarked, "It is common for customers to want more capacity under TSMC's high utilization rates, but this level is unprecedented."

Due to the extreme capacity tightness, TSMC is adopting a more aggressive strategy. Deutsche Bank reported that TSMC is delaying new 3nm development projects and encouraging customers to shift more 2027/2028 mass-production products to the 2nm GAA process. At the same time, TSMC is using pricing strategies to "facilitate" this transition, which is expected to be reflected in strong guidance for Q1 2026.

In this capacity competition, Deutsche Bank analyzed that Samsung's Taylor fab (SF2P) is more likely to be preferred over Intel.

The report stated, "For customers seeking alternative supply, Samsung's Taylor fab is more likely to become the first destination."

Specifically, Qualcomm and AMD are the most likely to consider Samsung, while previous discussions indicate that Apple and Broadcom are evaluating Intel. However, the analyst added that although Intel has potential with its 14A process, "there is still much work to be done."

$TSM $INTC


Samsung and Intel are expected to benefit from the '6 major customers' including Apple and Nvidia


Maintain Buy rating; raise target price to $571. We believe Micron's valuation still lags the pace of earnings upgrades. We expect the company's near-term operating margin to rise into the 80% range.

Summary: Shares GF Securities Buy on MU with PT raised to $571; estimates FY2Q26 revenue $23B / GM 77% well above consensus, memory upcycle intact into 2027.

《GF Overseas Electronics & Communications》

☄ Micron FY2Q26 Earnings Preview: Memory Cycle Moving Higher

☀ Strong earnings expected, easing investor concerns:

We expect DRAM pricing to remain firm over the next several quarters. We forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 100% in 1Q26 and at least 30% QoQ in 2Q26. Based on current pricing trends, there is still further upside ahead. For Micron, we estimate FY2Q26 revenue of $23 billion and gross margin of 77% (vs. consensus of $19 billion revenue and 69% GM). Looking ahead, the company’s FY3Q26 revenue guidance could reach $29 billion, with gross margin further improving to 83% (vs. consensus of $26–27 billion revenue and 76–77% GM). On HBM, Micron has already secured HBM4 orders, with small-scale volume shipments set to begin in March.

☀ The memory upcycle remains intact:

1. Inventory restocking continues: CSPs are targeting inventory days equivalent to 4–6 months, versus the current level of only 2 months. Smartphone OEM inventory stands at around 7 weeks, up from 4–5 weeks in 4Q25, but still below the historical average of 7–9 weeks.

2. Supply shortages are likely to persist into 2027: Although Micron’s Idaho fab, SK Hynix’s M15X, and Samsung’s P4L are all accelerating capacity expansion, meaningful wafer output is expected to be concentrated in 2H27. At the same time, AI-related demand is expected to account for more than 75% of total DRAM demand in 2027, meaning supply shortages could persist through 2H27. As a result, earnings visibility for memory makers has improved significantly, and negotiations for 3–5 year LTAs are already underway.

3. Memory BOM impact remains manageable: As noted in our previous report on memory cost impact, we expect memory’s share of AI server BOM to rise from 8–9% in 2025 to 15% by 4Q26, with most of the increase concentrated in 2026.

☀ Maintain Buy rating; raise target price to $571:

We believe Micron’s valuation still lags the pace of earnings upgrades. We expect the company’s near-term operating margin to rise into the 80% range. Even under a historical downcycle scenario where DRAM prices fall by about 60%, Micron could still sustain an operating profit margin of around 50%. Historically, Micron has traded at an average 1.4x P/B, corresponding to an average 15% OPM. Given our forecast for 50%+ OPM, we believe the current 4x P/B remains reasonable even within a downcycle valuation framework. We have revised our BVPS base to the average of FY26/27E, and raise our target price to $571.

$MU


씨티, 삼성전자 목표가 20만원 제시

Summary: Shares Citi's price target of 200,000 KRW on Samsung Electronics, implying significant upside.

Citi sets Samsung Electronics’ price target at 200,000 KRW.

씨티, 삼성전자 목표가 20만원 제시 https://t.co/2KNpDnUjwD


Summary: Bullish SK Hynix on extraordinary profitability: server DDR5 OPM potentially 90% in H1, memory companies minting gold.

Comment from Korea's BNK Investment & Securities:

"SK Hynix's server DDR5 OPM was 70%, but considering the recent price increases, the server DDR5 OPM could reach 90% within the first half of this year."

No way lol OPM 90%? Does that make sense?

Memory companies are literally minting gold.

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Why make HBM? LOL—DDR5 is way more profitable.


Summary: Bernstein raises SanDisk PT to $1,000; author shares/adopts the bullish call.

Bernstein raises SanDisk price target to $1,000… https://t.co/Z2M7yQZbuz


Summary: Sharing bullish article on Samsung foundry turnaround via Tesla AI5/AI6 contracts; potential $100B business upside cited, with Tesla's deep involvement signaling durable partnership.

Samsung Begins Tesla AI5 Wafer Processing… "Musk Also Attending Meetings"

Samsung Electronics will soon begin pilot production of Tesla's AI5 chips. While the AI5 and AI6 chip foundry contracts are loss-making in the short term, the level of interest is high enough that Tesla CEO Elon Musk is personally involved in working-level meetings with Samsung Electronics staff, raising expectations for revenue growth through expanded cooperation.

Samsung Electronics was previously reported to have secured a $16.5 billion (approximately 24 trillion won) contract from Tesla in July last year for foundry production of AI6 chips. The contract runs through 2033. Additionally, Samsung Electronics has also secured a portion of AI5 chip production, which had been expected to be produced entirely by TSMC. The opportunity arose for Samsung due to TSMC's limited production capacity and lower price competitiveness. Samsung Electronics will manufacture the AI5 and AI6 chips using its cutting-edge 2-nanometer process.

According to industry sources, Samsung Electronics will begin wafer processing for pilot production of Tesla AI5 chips as early as this month. Samsung's Taylor foundry fab in the United States had been expected to begin operations in the second half of this year, but the timeline has been moved up as Tesla recently completed the AI5 chip design. Considering that it takes three to four months from the first wafer input to produce finished products, initial AI5 chip samples are expected to be available as early as the first half of this year. Full-scale mass production is expected in 2027.

Tesla is investing significant effort in the AI chip development and production preparation process with Samsung Electronics. In particular, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is reportedly leading the project by personally overseeing key progress updates.

One semiconductor industry insider said, "Tesla CEO Elon Musk is paying close attention to the collaboration with Samsung Electronics. He personally participates in working-level technical meetings of Samsung Electronics' foundry division related to AI5 and AI6 chip work," adding, "I've heard he actively checks on progress point by point and offers his input during meetings."

Samsung Electronics had previously allowed Tesla to be involved in the manufacturing process, considering the risks that could arise during the initial mass production phase. CEO Elon Musk also expressed his willingness to be deeply involved in the project, emphasizing a close cooperative relationship with Samsung Electronics. This has gone beyond public statements to actual participation at the working level.

For the next-generation AI6 chip, which Samsung Electronics is exclusively responsible for, pilot production is expected to begin next year with mass production starting in 2028. During its recent fourth-quarter earnings conference call, the company expressed confidence, stating, "Our second-generation 2-nanometer process is on track for mass production in the second half of the year, meeting yield and performance targets," and "We are conducting power, performance, and area (PPA) evaluations and test chip collaborations with major clients for product design, with technology verification proceeding as planned."

The industry is paying attention to the mid-to-long-term value of Samsung Electronics' Tesla contract. While this deal is essentially a loss-making contract in the short term, it holds significant strategic importance considering future scalability. The contract volume for AI5 chips has not been disclosed but is known to be small. The AI6 chip contract is valued at $16.5 billion. Considering that Samsung Electronics is spending approximately $37 billion (about 54.2 trillion won) to build the Taylor foundry fab through 2030, annual revenue of around $3 billion is not a large proportion relative to the investment.

However, the potential expansion of applications for Tesla's AI5 and AI6 chips is a point where future revenue growth is expected. The chips could be deployed across Tesla's entire AI value chain, including not only autonomous vehicles but also robotaxis, humanoid robots, and proprietary AI servers. Another semiconductor industry insider said, "The specific applications for the AI chips are expected to become clearer in the first half of this year," adding, "If Samsung Electronics' chip quality meets expectations, there is a high possibility this could expand into a $100 billion business."

The industry is also raising the possibility that Samsung Electronics' foundry division could achieve a turnaround to profitability next year. The division has continued to post annual losses of several trillion won until recently. Potential turning points for improved performance include the adoption of the next-generation mobile application processor "Exynos 2600" in the Galaxy S26 series, potential orders from big tech companies like Qualcomm and AMD, and increased utilization rates for 4-nanometer and 8-nanometer processes.
Kiwoom Securities noted in a recent report, "Samsung Electronics' foundry and System LSI divisions are expected to post annual operating losses of around 4 trillion won (this year), but there is also a possibility that the deficit could narrow further, driven by increased utilization of advanced process nodes." Heungkuk Securities projected, "As TSMC capacity shortages intensify, the visibility of Samsung Foundry's turnaround is increasing, with the Tesla contract as a catalyst."

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https://t.co/ZFzsb8YLPR


Tesla CEO Elon Musk is personally involved in working-level meetings with Samsung Electronics staff, raising expectations for revenue growth through expanded cooperation


Summary: Shares Goldman/BofA Buy calls on Taiwan PCB/CCL names — Taiwan Union, Unimicron, Elite Material — with raised PTs on AI server ABF supercycle.

Taiwan Stock Market 2026 Barometer: ABF 'Supercycle' Ignites… AI Infrastructure Driving PCB & CCL Demand Explosion

- As AI server and high-performance computing (HPC) demand ramps up in earnest, the long-struggling PCB sector has entered a strong rebound phase. After enduring weak consumer electronics and inventory destocking pressure, the advancement and higher specifications of AI server architectures are driving across-the-board increases in substrate layer counts, material grades, and per-unit value, serving as key catalysts for both industry fundamentals and share prices. Related names have surged sharply year-to-date, drawing significant market attention.

- Capital is flowing back into high-end materials and process supply chains, with PCB, ABF, and CCL simultaneously entering a new growth cycle. Most major players posted January revenues well above year-ago levels, hitting all-time highs. High-end PCB makers exposed to AI server demand led the earnings recovery, while ABF substrates are also seeing a rapidly tightening supply-demand structure as AI/HPC proliferates, prompting assessments of a 'supercycle' entry.

- In a January report, Goldman Sachs identified PCB and CCL as key beneficiary sectors of next-generation AI infrastructure. The global AI server PCB market is projected to surge from $3.1B in 2024 to $27.1B in 2027, with 2026–2027 YoY growth of +113% and +117%, respectively. The upstream CCL market is expected to expand from $1.5B in 2024 to $18.7B in 2027, with even steeper 2026–2027 YoY growth of +142% and +222%. As AI servers rapidly evolve toward M9-grade materials and higher-layer designs, R&D and CAPEX barriers are rising, creating a competitive environment that favors leading players with the requisite technology and production capabilities.

- On a company basis, Taiwan Union Technology is expected to benefit from ASP uplift as M9-grade materials are adopted in VR200/300, with a stable share within the NVIDIA supply chain cited as a key strength. The price target was raised from NT$2,060 to NT$2,250.

- Unimicron is seeing a continued increase in AI PCB revenue mix, driven by expanding share in ASIC projects for Amazon Web Services, Google, and Meta. 2025–2027 EPS is projected at NT$19.24, NT$37.90, and NT$67.13, respectively, with the price target raised from NT$805 to NT$925.

- Elite Material is considered a primary beneficiary of the supply shortage, expected to absorb transition demand and expand its share within the AI server supply chain. 2025–2027 EPS is estimated at NT$13.03, NT$28.39, and NT$48.51, with the price target adjusted from NT$615 to NT$650.

- BofA also views Unimicron positively. Citing full utilization of high-end capacity and strong ASIC demand, the company has raised this year's CAPEX to a record level. January revenue beat expectations, leading to a 2026 revenue forecast of YoY +44%. 2026–2028 EPS estimates were revised upward by 5–10%, and the valuation multiple was lifted from 18.5x to 20x.

- At the broader industry level, the Taiwan Printed Circuit Association (TPCA) and the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) forecast global PCB output value at $92.36B in 2025 (YoY +15.4%) and $105.2B in 2026 (YoY +13.9%). AI is now firmly established as the core driver of industry premiumization and value-added growth.

- On the supply chain front, U.S.–China trade tensions and tariff barriers are reshaping the global division of labor. According to TPCA, amid the 'de-China' trend, U.S.-based customers are expanding non-China production in sensitive areas such as AI servers and low-earth orbit satellites, with Taiwanese PCB makers absorbing the resulting transition demand. Under the latest Taiwan–U.S. tariff regime, the export duty on Taiwan-made PCBs to the U.S. stands at ~15%, highlighting a competitive edge versus China's 45%. Taiwan has already emerged as the largest PCB import source for the U.S. in 2025. However, establishing local U.S. factories requires careful consideration of ROI and customer negotiation terms, and in the near term, Asia-based manufacturing is judged to retain a competitive advantage.

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https://t.co/mLTPWaylcy


Elite Material is considered a primary beneficiary of the supply shortage, expected to absorb transition demand and expand its share within the AI server supply chain. The price target adjusted from NT$615 to NT$650.


Samsung Electronics' foundry division has set a target of exceeding 2 trillion won in operating profit next year… management believes a return to profit is possible as early as Q4 of this year, with full-year profitability achievable next year

Summary: Samsung Foundry targets 2T won OP next year on Tesla AI chip ramp, Exynos volume, and mature-node expansion; first full-year profit in 5 years possible.

[Exclusive] Samsung Foundry Targets Over $1.3 Billion in Operating Profit Next Year… Attempting Return to Black After 5 Years

Samsung Electronics' foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing) division has reportedly established an internal target of surpassing 2 trillion won in operating profit next year. This comes as big tech orders are ramping up in earnest—starting with Tesla's AI chips—and as mature-node customer production volumes expand. Attention is now focused on whether the foundry division, which had been posting trillion-won-scale operating losses amid an order drought, can achieve its first full-year profitability in five years.

According to industry sources on the 3rd, Samsung Electronics' foundry division has set a target of exceeding 2 trillion won in operating profit next year. The division had been recording losses in the trillions since 2023, plagued by poor order intake due to low yields at advanced nodes. However, with advanced processes now stabilizing and mature-node demand expanding, management believes a return to profit is possible as early as Q4 of this year, with full-year profitability achievable next year.

Next Year: Tesla AI Chip Mass Production Begins, Exynos Volumes Expand

Samsung's foundry division had been unable to supply Exynos application processors (APs) for the Galaxy series produced by Samsung's MX (Mobile eXperience) division for several years due to poor yields. However, as 2-nanometer process yields have begun to stabilize, the division has been supplying the Exynos 2600 starting this year. Galaxy models launching next year are expected to include more Exynos-equipped variants, driving higher production volumes for the foundry division.

Samsung's foundry division plans to mass-produce Tesla's AI chips on the 2nm process at its Taylor, Texas fab next year. It will manufacture AI5 and AI6—the AI chips serving as the brains behind Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot, robotaxi, and autonomous driving systems. Notably, the AI6 chip is reported to be exclusively manufactured by Samsung's foundry division.

Building on stabilized advanced-node yields, the division is also actively pursuing orders from Qualcomm, AMD, and others. Qualcomm was previously a Samsung foundry customer, and the likelihood of renewed orders is growing as the 2nm process stabilizes. AMD is also seen as likely to come knocking at Samsung's door, given TSMC's constrained production capacity.

Mature Node Orders Also Expanding… Rising Demand for HBM Logic Dies, Grok AI Chips, and More

Increased utilization at mature nodes (4–8nm) is also seen as contributing to improved profitability. Through its mature processes, Samsung manufactures the logic die that serves as the brain of 6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4), as well as AI chips for xAI's Grok (the AI semiconductor startup backed by Nvidia), IBM chips, Nintendo chips, and more. As the HBM market expands, demand for foundry-produced logic dies is growing, while order volumes from tech companies are also reportedly increasing.

An industry source noted: "The 4–8nm mature processes have achieved stability through repeated high-volume production. Existing customers leveraging these nodes are increasing their production volumes, which is driving improved profitability."

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https://t.co/uXyCJNnCAn


Summary: Reacts bullishly to UBS raising MU PT, endorsing the memory LTA pricing thesis.

"Our supply chain work on Long Term Agreements (LTAs) across the memory industry suggests that up to 30% of DDR volumes industry-wide will be soon locked in at pricing that is just slightly below current levels"

HOLY SMOKES

UBS raising $MU pt to... $1,625 https://t.co/jVO4G5ldq1


Summary: Bullish BESI: Samsung likely to buy more Besi hybrid bonding equipment than expected as SEMES alternative is less mature.

"Samsung Electronics has likewise already introduced Besi equipment for development purposes, and has recently begun quality-testing a hybrid bonder from SEMES as well. However, the SEMES tool is understood to be less mature in terms of completeness."

Samsung may end up buying more BESI equipment than expected.

SK Hynix Places First Order for Applied Materials–Besi Hybrid Bonding Equipment

SK Hynix has decided to purchase production-grade hybrid bonding equipment for the development of next-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

According to industry sources on March 31, SK Hynix https://t.co/BvIErBRI6C


Summary: Bullish Ajinomoto on 30% ABF film price hike; rising prices are a positive earnings catalyst.

Congratulations to the hedge funds that bought stakes in Ajinomoto and pushed for ABF film price hikes.

Ajinomoto is finally raising ABF film prices by 30%, apparently. https://t.co/NY2UeAxtef

Prices of ABF substrates, key to heat control in AI chip packages, are expected to rise further in the 2nd half amid rising material costs, higher spot prices, and tighter capacity, media report, citing unnamed supply chain sources. Taiwan’s 3 top makers all reported record high


Samsung Electronics is estimated to have recorded Q1 operating profit of KRW 40–45 trillion… both companies would be setting new records roughly double their prior highs

Summary: Record-breaking memory earnings for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron; continued DRAM/NAND price surge and upward revisions expected through at least 2027.

DRAM Prices Double… Samsung and SK Hynix Profits Likely Doubled Too

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are estimated to have posted record-breaking earnings in Q1.

This is attributed to strong HBM sales momentum, compounded by steep price increases in commodity DRAM and NAND flash.

According to sell-side estimates as of April 2, Samsung Electronics is estimated to have recorded Q1 operating profit of KRW 40–45 trillion, while SK Hynix is estimated at KRW 36–39 trillion. At the start of the year, Samsung's OP consensus stood at KRW 36–37 trillion and SK Hynix at around KRW 31 trillion, but continued memory price increases led to upward revisions throughout the quarter.

Samsung's previous all-time quarterly OP record was KRW 20.1 trillion, achieved in Q4 last year. SK Hynix's was KRW 19.17 trillion, also set in Q4. If sell-side estimates prove accurate, both companies would be setting new records roughly double their prior highs. Companies generating over KRW 10 trillion in monthly operating profit are exceedingly rare globally — limited to the likes of NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Saudi Aramco.

Micron's earnings, reported last month, were also a blowout. FY2026 Q2 (Dec 2025–Feb 2026) revenue came in at $23.86 billion, beating its own guidance of $18.7 billion by 27%. Non-GAAP operating income was $16.5 billion, exceeding the guidance-implied estimate of $11.3 billion by 46%.

According to TrendForce, Q1 DRAM and NAND flash contract prices rose 90–95% and 55–60% QoQ, respectively. Further increases of 58–63% for DRAM and 70–75% for NAND are forecast for Q2. As such, upward earnings revisions across the memory industry are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

The industry expects new cleanroom expansions to translate into actual supply additions no earlier than late 2027 to 2028. AI cloud service providers are currently negotiating 5-year long-term purchase agreements to secure volumes. Supply shortages in the commodity market are set to persist.

The consumer electronics industry is feeling the pain. IDC forecasts that global smartphone shipments will decline 12.9% and PC shipments 11.3% this year due to component cost pressures from surging memory prices. IDC described the impact of soaring memory prices as "tsunami-level." Memory prices have risen to the point where OEMs are actively downgrading product specs or eliminating budget lineups entirely. Display panel manufacturers are also reportedly lowering their shipment targets for the year as a result.

Jitesh Ubrani, Research Manager at IDC, said, "The memory shortage will persist through 2027. Even if prices begin to moderate from 2028, they will not return to 2025 levels."

An industry insider noted, "The key mid-to-long-term variables for the memory industry are whether memory efficiency technologies like Google's TurboQuant actually reduce server purchase volumes, and whether cloud datacenter players maintain their current pace of capex."

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https://t.co/XWSJO8CEN8


SK Hynix is estimated at KRW 36–39 trillion… upward earnings revisions across the memory industry are likely to continue for the foreseeable future


Micron's earnings, reported last month, were also a blowout. FY2026 Q2 revenue came in at $23.86 billion, beating its own guidance of $18.7 billion by 27%


Summary: Long ASML: EUV slots sold out through 2027, Samsung ordered 20 tools for one fab, still cheap with DRAM capacity expansion thesis playing out.

I've been calling ASML since October last year, predicting that DRAM would face a severe supply shortage, and that as the three major DRAM makers ramp up capacity expansions, ASML's EUV tools would become the subject of an intense scramble.

My thesis is gradually playing out. ASML's EUV slots are already fully sold out through 2027, and negotiations for 2028 allocations are now underway.

Most recently, Samsung alone ordered 20 EUV systems for a single fab.

ASML is still cheap.

Samsung Electronics Orders ~20 EUV Tools for P5… "First Cleanroom Completion Next Year"

Samsung Electronics has reportedly placed orders for approximately 20 extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools—critical equipment for sub-10nm advanced processes—with Dutch semiconductor https://t.co/ThQQiLGq1y


Summary: Bullish NAND: Samsung LTA floor price above 0.5, implying eSSD pricing will be stronger than Q3; challenges bears.

LTAs : We believe that Samsung’s floor price of LTA is above 0.5!

This means the LTA eSSD price is even higher than this year’s Q3 eSSD price…

Are you still bearish on NAND, anon?


Revenue: US$39.0–40.2bn vs. consensus: US$38.1bn (midpoint +4% above)

Summary: TSMC 2Q26 guidance midpoints beat consensus on revenue (+4%), GPM (+2.4ppt), and OPM (+2.3ppt); all metrics above Street.

▶ TSMC 2Q26 Guidance
- Revenue: US$39.0–40.2bnvs. consensus: US$38.1bn (midpoint +4% above)
- GPM: 65.5%–67.5%vs. consensus: 64.1% (midpoint +2.4ppt above)
- OPM: 56.5%–58.5%vs. consensus: 55.2% (midpoint +2.3ppt above)


Summary: Bearish on memory sector: CXL adoption will reduce overall memory consumption, contrary to consensus bullish view.

Many people seem to think CXL is a positive for memory companies, but I see it a bit differently.

CXL, by its very origin, came from the idea of how to use less memory more efficiently. Because of that, the adoption of CXL will inevitably reduce memory usage. That is precisely why Google is seriously considering CXL, especially in a memory apocalypse like the one we are seeing now.

Below is a passage quoted from The Diligence Stack:

"If CXL-attached memory pools become cost-effective at scale, they would absorb some of the overflow we currently expect to land in NVMe flash. This would not eliminate the storage opportunity but would resize it, potentially materially."

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https://t.co/dtWzNPZI0m


Summary: Bullish MediaTek (EMIB-T risk reduced by VP hire) and INTC packaging (TPU v9 order held); bearish TSMC on lost packaging share.

Former TSMC packaging vice president Douglas Yu has joined MediaTek, and MediaTek insiders reportedly expect that his arrival will make it much easier to manage the technical and mass-production risks associated with the first adoption of EMIB-T than previously feared.

The media outlet that reported the news cited an industry source as saying, “TSMC assumed customers would not leave, but they did.” The outlet also commented that while TSMC is now rushing to fill the packaging gap between CoWoS and SoW, based on the current timeline, it appears difficult for TSMC to reclaim the TPU v9 packaging order.

$INTC

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https://t.co/F0qID1wsNQ


TSMC assumed customers would not leave, but they did. based on the current timeline, it appears difficult for TSMC to reclaim the TPU v9 packaging order


based on the current timeline, it appears difficult for TSMC to reclaim the TPU v9 packaging order


Summary: Shares/adopts GF Buy on Lumentum, PT raised to $1,174 on laser supply tightness, booked-out capacity through 2028, and EML pricing power.

GF Overseas Electronics & Communications

☄ Lumentum (LITE US, Buy): Earnings Preview — Outlook Becoming More Certain

☀ Maintain Buy rating; raise target price to US$1,174:
We forecast FY3Q/FY4Q26 revenue of US$840 million / US$1.02 billion, versus consensus of US$830 million / US$970 million. We estimate EPS of US$2.4 / US$3.1, versus consensus of around US$2.3 / US$2.7. We expect earnings visibility to improve further as laser capacity approaches being largely booked out through 2028, alongside tightening EML supply and stronger pricing power. Accordingly, we raise our CY26/CY27 EPS estimates to US$13 / US$31. To reflect improved medium- to long-term visibility, we roll our valuation forward to CY28 and raise our target price to US$1,174, based on 20x CY28 P/E.

☀ Structural supply tightness, combined with improving demand visibility, strengthens EML pricing:
Upstream laser supply remains structurally tight. The increase in prepayments from optical module makers in 1Q indicates that lasers continue to be in short supply. We expect laser capacity to be largely booked out through 2028. Given the limited number of suppliers and the long lead times required for capacity expansion, we believe EML prices still have room to rise.

☀ CPO / NPO / OCS:
Although the market has recently been discussing CPO yield issues, we believe the industry trend remains intact. At the same time, visibility is improving for NPO solutions in CSP ASICs. As NPO/CPO solutions begin to scale, laser suppliers should fully benefit from their critical position in the value chain. In addition, Google recently disclosed at its conference the use of OCS in TPU v8i, enabling a cluster-level, high-radix, reconfigurable optical interconnect architecture to improve network utilization and system scalability. We expect OCS to be adopted by more cloud service providers over time.

$LITE


Summary: Memory cycle not over — AAPL acknowledging rising costs signals further price increases; TSMC leading-edge tight; Amkor raised as a bullish idea on Apple supply chain.

Thoughts from Apple’s earnings call:

Memory does not seem to be the bottleneck preventing Apple from shipping products. Rather, it is a cost variable pressuring margins. In contrast, SoC / leading-edge node capacity appears to be the supply constraint that is actually limiting unit shipments.

Apple seems to be able to secure enough memory. The issue is that it cannot ship enough products because it is not getting sufficient SoC supply due to tight TSMC leading-edge capacity.

Mac mini and Mac Studio demand has been stronger than expected, as they are increasingly being recognized as strong platforms for AI and agentic tools.

→ There is currently no AI platform that can really match Apple’s unified memory architecture.

Amkor bullish?

Memory costs were already higher in the March quarter, and Apple expects significantly higher memory costs in the June quarter.

→ Memory prices are likely to rise even more sharply in calendar 2Q. If even Apple — arguably the strongest buyer in the world — is acknowledging memory cost pressure, then this cycle is not over yet.

$AAPL


SoC / leading-edge node capacity appears to be the supply constraint that is actually limiting unit shipments... it is not getting sufficient SoC supply due to tight TSMC leading-edge capacity


Summary: Shares Citi's raised PT on Samsung to KRW 300,000 with Q1 2026 operating profit forecast of KRW 51T; implied long.

* Citi raises its price target on Samsung Electronics to KRW 300,000.

* Citi expects Samsung Electronics to post a market-high KRW 51 trillion in operating profit for Q1 2026. ($33.62 billion)

* Citi raises its 2026 global DRAM/NAND ASP forecast to +190% / +172% YoY.


Summary: Hung Ching Precision is the standout long on CPO test equipment + SLT dominance (60–70% share); Auras Technology leads MCCP ramp; Jentech pursues MCL.

Hung Ching Precision 3443.TW Taiwan test equipment

>> AI Thermal War Heats Up: MCCP and MCL to Coexist, While CPO Test Demand Surges (Commercial Times, Taiwan)

• As AI chip power density rises sharply, cooling technology competition is becoming a key variable. Ahead of mass production for NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform, test equipment maker Hung Ching Precision said MCCP and MCL are more likely to coexist rather than compete directly. MCCP is currently moving quickly into mass production, led by Auras Technology, while MCL is being developed by companies such as Jentech Precision Industrial. MCL carries higher cost and technical difficulty, but also has stronger performance potential. Cooler Master is pursuing both technologies in parallel. Hung Ching Precision expects MCCP to enter mass production first in Q3, improving thermal density efficiency by 2x, while MCL should follow after validation. From the customer perspective, however, adoption will likely be mixed depending on cost and product-specific requirements: some products may use MCL, others MCCP, and others conventional liquid cooling.

• At the same time, the real growth opportunity in the industry is shifting beyond cooling and toward CPO. Hung Ching Precision has secured a leading position in optical-electrical co-test equipment and expects large-scale mass production demand from late this year into next year. ASPs for this equipment are significantly higher than conventional electrical test systems. In addition, the integration of vision inspection systems to protect high-value AI chips is pushing equipment prices up by another 10–15%.

• On top of this, the expansion of ASICs is also driving higher demand for SLT. Hung Ching Precision currently holds roughly 60–70% share in this market. Ultimately, in the AI era, the key battleground extends beyond the chip itself to the full-stack infrastructure of cooling, packaging, and testing. Cooling will likely be a coexistence story, while profitability should expand meaningfully in CPO and test equipment.

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https://t.co/FrX4oQ2bDL


Summary: Daishin Securities bullish on memory semis: spot price softness is overstated, server/mobile demand remains robust, and market concerns are excessive.

Memory semiconductor basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

On the Decline in Memory Semiconductor Spot Prices [Daishin Securities Semiconductor / Ryu Hyung-geun]

What is the problem?

Memory semiconductor share prices continue to decline. The fundamental backdrop, if there is one, would be macro uncertainty, but from a sector perspective, the market appears to take issue with four key factors:

1. Pricing: Decline in spot prices and a deceleration in memory semiconductor price growth rates.

2. Demand: Concerns that the emergence of AI efficiency solutions such as Turbo Quant could dampen medium-to-long-term memory semiconductor demand.

3. Supply: Concerns over capex increases across the supply industry and the potential recurrence of oversupply.

4. Profitability: The possibility that the pace of profitability improvement may slow amid elevated base effects.

Where problems exist, a proper diagnosis is warranted. In this report, we examine the decline in spot prices.

A moderation in spot prices does not signal a trend reversal in pricing

Recently, a moderation in spot prices has been observed in certain product segments. The market has historically used spot prices as a tool for diagnosing industry conditions and informing share price decisions, and has been selling shares on the back of elevated price base effects and the recent softening in spot prices. In conclusion, we believe these market concerns are excessive.

- As the demand landscape shifts toward a server-centric structure, the correlation between spot prices and contract prices continues to diminish. The spot market is primarily composed of PC and consumer products, and its share of total market transactions is in the low-single-digit percentage range at best.

- Under the current demand structure, what matters for memory semiconductor earnings are mobile and server products. It is worth reiterating that these segments account for a negligible share of spot market transactions.

- Given the nature of the spot market, the sharp price run-up may have been felt as a burden by consumers. However, we do not believe this phenomenon will drive contract price declines in other application segments.

- According to our channel checks, one major CSP has decided to purchase server DDR4 at a price exceeding that of HBM3e. If genuine demand had begun to weaken, it would be impossible to explain why buyers are paying premiums for legacy products.

- Even in the Chinese market, where spot price declines have been observed, an acute memory semiconductor supply shortage persists. For some mobile customers, downward revisions to annual smartphone shipment targets are unavoidable due to memory supply constraints.

- Some large accounts are seizing this shift as an opportunity to expand market share. Considering the changing power dynamics at the set-maker level, there is a reasonable possibility of an unexpected surprise emerging from the mobile segment.


Summary: Entry-level smartphones are finished; MediaTek, Chinese smartphone brands, and KYEC all face significant headwinds.

Entry-level smartphones are literally finished.

MediaTek, Chinese smartphone brands, and KYEC will all take a big hit. https://t.co/ANLH0Vsz8O

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https://t.co/EwfuqGLTkh


Chinese smartphone basket: Xiaomi+Sunny Optical HK


Summary: Confirms/endorses Buy rating on Hyundai Motor.

@zephyr_z9 Why not? They have a Buy rating on Hyundai Motor. https://t.co/OLWRNhrmdV

@jukan05 do they have buy rating on Hyundai motors or not??


Summary: Bullish on power semiconductors sector as NVIDIA's 800V DC push signals explosive, durable growth in AI server power demand.

Power semicon basket: Wolfspeed, ON Semi, STMicro, Infineon

NVIDIA has reportedly visited Korean power equipment companies and asked them to design data center infrastructure around an 800V-class DC architecture, according to Korean media.

This is being interpreted as an effort to minimize power conversion losses in order to handle the explosive growth in AI server power consumption.

The era of power semiconductors is arriving. This is only the beginning.

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https://t.co/r43vnpYosT


Summary: Author pushes back on bearish DRAM price forecasts; data shows prices up 26% MoM, implying bullish DRAM outlook.

Korea DRAM sector: Samsung Electronics + SK Hynix

Who the hell said DRAM prices were going to drop? 😂 On the contrary, they've risen 26% compared to March prices? https://t.co/zDrMbJkkNX

Preliminary April Korea semiconductor export figures:

* DRAM: $9.25bn (+15% MoM, +83% QoQ)
* DRAM modules: $6.14bn (-17% MoM, +70% QoQ)
* NAND: $1.67bn (-34% MoM, +17% QoQ)
* MCP: $8.16bn (-5% MoM, +67% QoQ)
* SSD: $3.84bn (+20% MoM, +181% QoQ) https://t.co/XHNwN0bkIR


This might be the first time I've ever agreed with Burry.

Summary: Author endorses Burry's long position in Microsoft, agreeing with the bullish thesis.

* Michael Burry initiated a new long position in Microsoft.

This might be the first time I’ve ever agreed with Burry.

Why does it feel like people talk so little about GitHub Copilot? I think $MSFT is in a stronger position than Google when it comes to coding.


환율하방압력 꽤 커보이는데

Summary: Expects downward pressure on USD/KRW (KRW appreciation) as foreign retail investors buy Korean equities.

@Alisvolatprop12 환율은 어떻게 될까요? 해외 리테일 이렇게 한국 주식 막 사는거보면....환율하방압력 꽤 커보이는데...

“2%도 쉽지 않다더니, 앞다퉈 상승 버튼”…韓경제 눈높이 높이는 해외IB - 매일경제

이 추세가 안 꺾이면… 아마 하반기엔 하이 싱글을 말하는 곳들이 나타날 겁니다. https://t.co/ztyp9jrp7a


Samsung has scrapped its mass production plan for its 10nm-class 7th-generation DRAM (1d DRAM)… management concluded that mass production was not viable… raises the possibility of partial delays in Samsung Electronics' next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) memory roadmap

Summary: Samsung scraps 1d DRAM mass production on yield/ROI failure, threatening HBM5E roadmap; SK Hynix leads with 50%+ D1d yields.

[Exclusive] Samsung Scraps 7th-Generation DRAM Mass Production Plan… Red Flag for Future HBM Leadership

Samsung Electronics has scrapped its mass production plan for its 10nm-class 7th-generation DRAM (1d DRAM, hereafter D1d). Although the company had initially planned to begin actual D1d production after going through the Production Release Approval (PRA) process in Q1 of this year, it is understood that Samsung did not proceed with mass production after considering the deterioration in Return on Investment (ROI) stemming from the failure to meet yield targets.

According to a source familiar with Samsung Electronics' internal affairs on the 22nd, Samsung's management recently reviewed the yield and ROI of D1d and concluded that mass production was not viable. With process difficulty rising exponentially and stable product quality difficult to guarantee, management determined not to force line operations.

D1d is a core product that Samsung plans to apply to HBM5E, the 9th-generation High Bandwidth Memory. While 1c DRAM can handle the 6th through 8th generations (HBM4, HBM4E, HBM5), stable supply of D1d is essential starting from HBM5E.

This mass production cancellation raises the possibility of partial delays in Samsung Electronics' next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) memory roadmap. Previously, at GTC 2026 which opened on March 16 (local time) in San Jose, California, Samsung Electronics Memory Development VP Hwang Sang-joon stated, "D1d will be used as the core DRAM for HBM5E." The decision contradicts Hwang's presentation at the time, in which he expressed confidence in leveraging leading-edge processes.

Given the nature of the semiconductor business, a 1% difference in process yield is an indicator that determines trillions of won in operating profit. Samsung Electronics' current D1d appears to lack sufficient customer demand for the raw product to justify recouping the massive investment.

A source familiar with Samsung's internal affairs explained, "Along with the yield shortfall, management made the cold assessment that there are no customers willing to take or wait for D1d products at the current level." The judgment is that forcing mass production could lead to company-wide ROI deterioration.

With the mass production plan falling through, the approximately 400-person D1d mass production Task Force (TF) assembled for the project has effectively been left idle. The D1d mass production TF has been operating with mass production in mind for the past two years, but with the development product acceptance approval failing to come through, key engineers are reportedly confined to merely exchanging information at the development stage.

Inside Samsung Electronics, concerns over the DRAM technology gap with rival SK Hynix have reignited. SK Hynix is understood to have already completed D1d development and secured stable mass production yields of over 50%. Industry observers note that Samsung's strategy last year of simultaneously developing 6th-generation (1c) and 7th-generation (1d) DRAM dispersed its capabilities, leaving it at risk of falling behind rivals that relatively concentrated their firepower on a single generation.

A source familiar with Samsung's internal affairs said, "Samsung Electronics plans to indefinitely postpone the mass production schedule until D1d yields reach target levels, and as of now has not confirmed a timeline for resumption," adding, "The company is comprehensively re-examining its process roadmap and focusing on further boosting yields."

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https://t.co/ejUhyu0bAu


SK Hynix is understood to have already completed D1d development and secured stable mass production yields of over 50%


Summary: GF reiterates Buy on NVDA, raises PT to $308; above-consensus revenue forecasts of $80.6B F1Q and $91–93B F2Q guidance on Blackwell ramp + LPX contribution.

GF Overseas Electronics & Communications
 NVIDIA (NVDA Buy): Earnings Preview — Product Mix Offsets the Impact of Rubin Delay

Reiterate Buy rating; target price modestly raised to $308:
Driven by rising market expectations ahead of the upcoming earnings call and the U.S. approval on May 14 to export H200 chips to 10 Chinese companies, NVIDIA’s share price has reached a new all-time high. For the May 20 earnings call, we expect results to be in line with expectations, with guidance slightly above expectations. Given the company’s sizeable cash position and free cash flow, the announcement of a new share repurchase program during the earnings call would be a reasonable expectation.

In addition, Rubin’s timeline remains a key market focus. We reiterate our view that mass production will be delayed by about one month to September, while the 2300W specification remains unchanged.
Beyond GPUs, with Vera CPU and LPX, the company is expected to capture a larger share of value within the data center silicon TAM. For product re-rating, we still believe NVIDIA needs to launch an inference-focused GPU, potentially Feynman.

Taking into account higher Blackwell shipments and ASPs, lower Rubin shipments, and LPX contribution, we adjust our FY27E/28E EPS forecasts by +0%/+13%, respectively, and modestly raise our target price from $292 to $308, based on 28x FY27E/28E P/E.

Earnings preview — expected to be moderately positive:
Driven by normal GB300 NVL72 production, approximately 10% QoQ growth in Blackwell shipments, and a small contribution from RTX6000, we now expect F1Q revenue of $80.6 billion, compared with Bloomberg consensus of $78.8 billion and buy-side expectations of $80.0 billion.

As Blackwell shipments continue to increase, we expect F2Q guidance of $91.0 billion, or actual revenue of $93.0 billion, compared with Bloomberg consensus of $86.2 billion and buy-side expectations of around $90.0 billion. Our forecast does not include any Rubin contribution, as we believe it has already been delayed to mass production in September. Given the company’s sizeable cash position and free cash flow, its capital return plan is also worth watching.

Blackwell, Vera, and LPX will offset the widely known impact of Rubin’s delay:
According to our monthly report published on the 12th, due to earlier heatsink design changes, we expect Rubin’s timeline to be: QS in July, MP in September, and rack mass production in October. In terms of performance, we believe the redesigned version will still maintain the 2300W specification this year.
On the other hand, LPX rack ramp-up is faster than expected. We still expect 16,000 LPX racks to ship from 4Q26 through 2027, contributing approximately $70 billion in revenue during this period.

In addition, we believe NVIDIA may have shifted N3 wafer capacity from Rubin to Vera CPU in order to capture the Agentic AI trend. Overall, with deeper software–chip integration, the company is likely to capture a larger share of the data center silicon TAM.

$NVDA


Amazon is still trading near a 10-year low on CY26 EV/EBITDA. But as the rivalry between the two AI labs escalates and Amazon begins to collect its 'toll-gate revenue,' we believe the market is likely to gradually move toward a re-rating.

Summary: Long AMZN: shares Mirae Asset thesis that market will re-rate Amazon as AI toll-gate beneficiary collecting cloud fees + silicon adoption from OpenAI/Anthropic rivalry, currently near 10-yr low EV/EBITDA.

The most interesting comment I read in today’s report:

All of Anthropic's unusual moves around the GPT-5.5 launch ultimately converge on a single conclusion: in order to secure compute, Anthropic must bind itself far more deeply — and far more dependently — to those who possess these physical resources. This conclusion was crystallized in the $100B deal formalized a few days ago. The most representative example is the deal with Amazon. The key terms are as follows:

- Amazon will inject an additional $5B into Anthropic immediately, with up to $20B more in follow-on investment to come. Combined with the existing $8B, cumulative investment reaches up to $33B.
- Up to 5GW of compute capacity secured, of which roughly 1GW is scheduled to come online by year-end 2026.
- Anthropic has committed to spending $100B+ on AWS technology over the next 10 years (including usage requirements for AWS silicon such as Trainium and Graviton).
- Purchase rights secured for Trainium2/3/4 and future Trainium generations. Trainium2 is currently sold out, and Trainium3 is largely booked as well.
- The Claude Platform will be offered natively on AWS.

Just how large is the 5GW Anthropic has committed to? It is equivalent to roughly five nuclear power plants. Given that Microsoft's total global data center footprint in 2024 is estimated at around 5–6GW, this means Anthropic alone is locking in incremental capacity — for AI training and serving — that rivals the entirety of MSFT's historical physical infrastructure. Coupled with Anthropic's announcement of having reached $30B ARR, the market is reading this deal as "Anthropic pre-signing Amazon's invoice in order to keep its growth going."

It is also worth noting Dario Amodei's (Anthropic CEO) remarks accompanying the announcement: "Users tell us that Claude is becoming increasingly essential to how they work. We need to build infrastructure to keep up with rapidly growing demand." Last month's blog post from Anthropic — directly admitting that "surging enterprise/developer demand is placing unavoidable strain on our infrastructure, affecting reliability and performance" — was effectively a teaser for this deal.

What matters is that the structure of this deal is more favorable to Amazon than to Anthropic. Amazon has already invested in OpenAI as well (up to $50B). In other words, the more fiercely OpenAI and Anthropic compete to eat each other's lunch, the more Amazon benefits simultaneously along three axes: cloud usage fees from both, adoption rates for its in-house silicon (Trainium as XPU, Graviton as CPU), and visibility on the recovery of data center CAPEX. This is structurally almost identical to the valuation premium Google historically enjoyed under the "full-stack player" framing.

The market, however, has not yet fully come around to recognizing Amazon in this light. (Sentiment has admittedly improved compared to two weeks ago.) Amazon is still trading near a 10-year low on CY26 EV/EBITDA. But as the rivalry between the two AI labs escalates and Amazon begins to collect its "toll-gate revenue," we believe the market is likely to gradually move toward a re-rating.

(Excerpt from Mirae Asset Securities’ AI Hot Issue report, dated April 24, 2026)

$AMZN


Morgan Stanley's latest SK hynix operating profit forecasts... KRW 222 trillion → KRW 277 trillion... KRW 298 trillion → KRW 408 trillion... KRW 226 trillion → KRW 403 trillion

Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley's raised SK Hynix operating profit forecasts for 2026–2028, implying a bullish stance.

Morgan Stanley’s latest SK hynix operating profit forecasts (as of April 19, 2026):

- Previous forecast for 2026: KRW 222 trillion (US$150.177 billion) → KRW 277 trillion (US$187.382 billion)
- Previous forecast for 2027: KRW 298 trillion (US$201.588 billion) → KRW 408 trillion (US$276.0 billion)
- Previous forecast for 2028: KRW 226 trillion (US$152.882 billion) → KRW 403 trillion (US$272.618 billion)


Summary: Samsung and SK Hynix shift to 3–5yr LTAs with big tech, structurally raising margins and reducing cyclical downside risk.

One-year contracts are a thing of the past… Samsung and SK hynix won't sell without 3–5 year long-term supply agreements

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have effectively abandoned the practice of signing one-year short-term memory supply contracts with global big tech companies, opting instead to supply products exclusively through 3–5 year long-term agreements (LTAs). The strategy aims to build a stable, high-margin business model through strategic collaboration with customers from the earliest stages of AI memory development.

According to industry sources on the 8th, Samsung Electronics has established a policy of applying a minimum three-year LTA to all new contracts starting this year. Until last year, the company had been accommodating even quarterly ultra-short-term contracts, but has now decided to fully transition its supply policy to an LTA framework. At the annual general meeting on March 18, Samsung Electronics DS Division CEO (Vice Chairman) Jeon Young-hyun stated: "We are pursuing a shift in supply contracts with our customers from the current annual and quarterly basis to multi-year agreements spanning 3–5 years." Accordingly, Samsung is expected to secure stable three-year memory supply commitments with major customers including AMD — with which negotiations are in the final stages — as well as Microsoft and Google.

Furthermore, SK hynix has reportedly been pursuing a five-year commodity DRAM long-term supply agreement with Google. While a three-year term was initially considered the leading option, an internal assessment that "even three years is too short" led to a decision to extend the contract period to five years to maximize supply stability. Given that SK hynix is currently the primary supplier of 5th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM3E) to Google, the company is said to be negotiating an additional two-year extension by leveraging next-generation HBM supply as a condition. Negotiations that were originally slated for completion by year-end are now expected to be finalized within the first half.

Historically, the memory market was built on commoditization. Commodity DRAM for PCs and smartphones was mass-produced and sold based on quarterly fixed transaction prices or daily-fluctuating spot prices. As a result, even slight demand fluctuations triggered price collapses, leading to trillion-won-scale losses — the inescapable "curse of the cycle." Suppliers were unilaterally exposed to market conditions in a classic subordinate position.

By contrast, a shift to an LTA framework minimizes the risk of order cliffs. By locking in volumes for three to five-plus years, companies can defend earnings with pre-committed prices and volumes even amid demand shocks from economic downturns — effectively securing downside rigidity where profits no longer plunge during downturns. Samsung Electronics is reportedly reviewing supply pricing policies to hedge against DRAM price volatility alongside minimum annual supply volume provisions as part of the LTA transition.

The shift is also effective from a capital expenditure efficiency standpoint. With volumes already committed, disciplined and calculated CAPEX becomes possible, replacing reckless capacity expansion races. The semiconductor industry expects that as the share of long-term contracts rises, memory companies' margins will stabilize at levels structurally higher than in the past. In particular, for products like HBM — where process complexity is high and customer requirements vary — a made-to-order supply system based on "secure orders first, produce after," akin to the foundry model, is essential to eliminate inventory risk at the source and maximize production efficiency.

An industry official commented: "The era of memory companies anxiously stockpiling inventory while worrying about price declines is over. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have now been elevated beyond mere memory suppliers to strategic infrastructure partners for global big tech."

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https://t.co/u9i3jEUT28


Summary: DRAM supercycle extends well beyond 1H next year; NVIDIA alone to absorb 72% of total LPDDR supply driven by GB200/VR200 LPDDR5X demand.

Global DRAM sector basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix

Hana Securities’ bull case estimates that next year, NVIDIA alone will account for 72% of total LPDDR supply.

Did you hear me, anon? https://t.co/a9MdGHZeXT

People who think the DRAM supercycle will end in 1H next year don't know what they're talking about.

The GB200 uses 17TB of SOCAMM2, but the VR200 uses over 50TB of SOCAMM2. That alone has NVIDIA hoovering up so much LPDDR5X that even smartphone OEMs are panic-buying — and do


we remain positive on FormFactor's four key growth drivers... We raise our 2026/2027 EPS forecasts to $2.75/$4.30. Applying an unchanged 40x 2027E P/E multiple, we set a target price of $193.

Summary: GF reiterates Buy on FormFactor; raises EPS estimates and sets $193 PT on AI probe card share gains, HBM ramp, and CPO testing commercialization.

GF Overseas Electronics & Communications — FormFactor 1Q26 Review: Sufficient Growth Momentum Ahead

Gross margin beat expectations; industry momentum continues

FormFactor reported 1Q26 revenue of $230 million, with gross margin reaching 49.0%, up 5.1 percentage points QoQ and 2.5 percentage points above the high end of prior guidance.

Management guided for 2Q26 revenue of $240 million, with gross margin rising further to 49.5%.

As previously argued, we remain positive on FormFactor’s four key growth drivers: AI-driven share gains, accelerated HBM business ramp, and the commercialization of CPO testing. The May 11 Investor Day will be the next important catalyst, where we expect management to raise its long-term revenue target to around $1.6 billion.

We raise our 2026/2027 EPS forecasts to $2.75/$4.30. Applying an unchanged 40x 2027E P/E multiple, we set a target price of $193.

AI probe card share is steadily rising

Through its deep partnership with Teradyne, FormFactor has become a core probe card supplier to Mellanox, helping Nvidia become a customer accounting for more than 10% of FormFactor’s revenue for the first time.

Looking ahead, the company is expected to enter the AI probe card market starting with Nvidia’s Rubin platform. MediaTek’s Humufish platform scale-up in 2H27 should also bring another wave of incremental revenue.

On HBM, management stated that its second-largest customer is the biggest source of incremental revenue, which we believe refers to Samsung.

Notably, HBM4 probe cards carry a 20% premium over HBM3E probe cards. Combined with 70% YoY growth in HBM wafer shipments, this should drive both revenue growth and gross margin improvement.

Insertion 1 leadership remains solid; CPO probe cards open up new growth opportunities

The company’s 2026 CPO-related revenue is moving toward the high end of its $10–20 million guidance range.

With its Triton series, FormFactor has established a clear leadership position in the Insertion 1 probe station market. We expect shipments to exceed 100 units in 2027, corresponding to CPO revenue of more than $100 million.

In addition, the Keystone acquisition should further strengthen the company’s probe card technology capabilities in CPO testing. This incremental contribution has not yet been included in current revenue forecasts.

$FORM


Summary: Shares bullish news: Apple signed deal to use Intel 18A-P for M7 and 14A for smartphone chips, implying meaningful foundry wins for INTC.

From GFHK Monthly Call: Apple and Intel already signed an agreement in December 2025. The M7 chip will use Intel 18A-P and is expected to enter production by the end of 2027, while the smartphone chip will use Intel 14A and is expected to enter production by the end of 2028.

$INTC


Summary: High-spec MLCC/resistor shortage widening; full-capacity utilization + order suspensions signal price-hike cycle; high-voltage MLCC makers named biggest Vera Rubin beneficiaries.

Murata Manufacturing 6981.T Japan MLCC leader

- China's largest passive component maker, Fenghua Advanced Technology, has suspended order intake across all 0402/0603-size chip resistors and MLCC product lines in response to surging orders.

- The company said order volumes for its RC/RS series 0402/0603 resistors have spiked, with unfilled backlog now far exceeding current production capacity; utilization has already reached roughly 90%.

- The supply chain attributes the order concentration to expanded preemptive (pull-in) ordering aimed at securing inventory, amplified by fears of supply shortages.

- The industry reads the surge in forward orders as the product of shortage fears in high-spec passive components colliding with the need to rebuild inventory. An order suspension is typically interpreted as a signal of an oncoming price-hike cycle.

- With inventory levels drawing down on recovering Chinese-market and automotive demand, and chip-resistor costs pressured by rising silver prices, the high-spec passive component shortage is expected to widen further.

- Rising silver prices in particular are weighing on chip-resistor costs, and the high-spec MLCC shortage could intensify further in 2027.

- Major Asian MLCC makers have likewise entered full-capacity production: Murata's and Samsung Electro-Mechanics' utilization rates have surpassed 90%, with Samsung Electro-Mechanics' Tianjin plant already running flat out.

- Holy Stone and PDC are similarly seeing extended lead times and utilization approaching full capacity, led by high-voltage MLCCs for AI power.

- Once the Vera Rubin platform launches in the second half, the supply squeeze on non-AI products is expected to intensify, positioning high-voltage MLCC makers as the biggest beneficiaries of the GPU platform generational transition.

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https://t.co/gxf6c0rQgS


Samsung Electro-Mechanics' utilization rates have surpassed 90%, with Samsung Electro-Mechanics' Tianjin plant already running flat out


An order suspension is typically interpreted as a signal of an oncoming price-hike cycle

Fenghua Advanced Technology 000636.SZ China MLCC


high-voltage MLCC makers as the biggest beneficiaries of the GPU platform generational transition

High-spec passives basket: Samsung EM, Murata, Yageo, TDK


Summary: Holds ASML as preferred play on selling equipment to all chipmakers regardless of who wins.

@Xgngu12 @Xterbase @PhotonCap 저는 오히려 메이커가 누가 이길지 찍는거보다 모든 메이커에게 장비를 파는 회사가 좋더라고요. 그래서 ASML 들고 있어요

@Xterbase @jukan05 @PhotonCap ㅋㅋ 바쁘신데 알림 너무 가면 귀찮으실까봐😂

저는 장비쪽은 싸이클 못맞추면 투자 관점에선 너무 재미가 없어지다 보니까 좀 무서워서 잘 안건드리게 되더라구요. 매출이 계절성 상관없이 잘 나오는 곳들을 투자처로 선호합니다ㅋㅋ

그래도 올려주시면 또 제 편향일 수 있으니 열심히 살펴볼게요!


Summary: Kioxia dropping SLC/MLC implies NAND supply tightening; author signals a buy in the space.

Kioxia has announced the discontinuation of SLC and MLC.

You know what to buy, right? https://t.co/fmei5RhONs


Summary: Long Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Murata as oligopolistic MLCC winners in AI server upcycle; DRAM prices also rising with Q2 gains expected.

▶ Demand for AI infrastructure spreads shortages beyond memory chips to MLCCs

• The supply shortage, previously centered on memory chips, is now spreading to MLCCs due to expanding AI infrastructure investment, with lead time increases confirmed across the industry

• As of Q1 2026, most major suppliers—including Kyocera, Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK, Yageo, and Walsin—are experiencing delivery delays, with Vishay being the sole exception

• The key drivers of the tight supply-demand balance are surging demand for high-spec MLCCs in AI servers and automotive electronics, with major manufacturers’ production lines already operating near capacity limits

• Samsung Electro-Mechanics’ MLCC lines are effectively running at full utilization, leaving limited room to accommodate additional demand

• Supply shortages are causing order delays and priority-based allocation; industry leader Murata has begun pricing discussions, signaling broader price increases across the sector

• Rising lead times are generally interpreted as a leading indicator of price increases and an industry recovery, highlighting the potential onset of a new MLCC upcycle

• The AI server MLCC market is forming an oligopolistic structure centered on Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Murata, positioning them as primary beneficiaries if prices rise

• Meanwhile, DRAM prices rose sharply QoQ in Q1 2026, with further increases expected in Q2

• The DRAM price uptrend is spilling over into other electronic components such as MLCCs, as AI-driven demand ripples across the broader component supply chain

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https://t.co/QGNwxIS2vH


Murata Manufacturing Co., listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange


DRAM prices rose sharply QoQ in Q1 2026, with further increases expected in Q2


Summary: Bullish SK Hynix Q2 on Trendforce-revised DDR5/DDR4 contract price forecasts up +18%/+23%, hitting $37.5 by end-April.

Hey guys, Trendforce just revised April DRAM contract price forecasts even higher. They bumped DDR5/DDR4 up by +18% and +23% respectively vs. the March estimates lol.

The contract prices to be announced at the end of April are expected to hit $37.5 for both DDR5 and DDR4 — that's +27%/+21% MoM gains.

SK Hynix's Q2 is going to be way stronger than Q1.


Summary: Bullish on AT&S.

AT&S Austria listed on Vienna Exchange ATS.VI


Summary: Bearish Broadcom as Google/MediaTek partnership erodes its 15-20% ASIC turnkey margin; bullish MediaTek as the beneficiary.

"Google is adopting a disaggregated ASIC model through its partnership with MediaTek, aiming to eliminate the 15–20% markup embedded in Broadcom’s turnkey model."

In other words, Google aims to use MediaTek to reduce the 15–20% margin Broadcom captures under its turnkey ASIC model.

𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗧𝗲𝗸 𝘁𝗼 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝟭 𝗶𝗻 𝟰 𝗔𝗜 𝗔𝗦𝗜𝗖 𝗦𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝘂𝘁𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟴

@Google’𝗌 𝗅𝖺𝗍𝖾𝗌𝗍 𝖳𝖯𝖴 𝗏𝟪 𝗀𝖾𝗇𝖾𝗋𝖺𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗆𝖺𝗋𝗄𝗌 𝖺 𝗌𝗍𝗋𝖺𝗍𝖾𝗀𝗂𝖼 𝗂𝗇𝖿𝗅𝖾𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗉𝗈𝗂𝗇𝗍, 𝗌𝗁𝗂𝖿𝗍𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝖿𝗋𝗈𝗆 https://t.co/pKNyPhy2fx


Google is adopting a disaggregated ASIC model through its partnership with MediaTek