Macquarie raised its target price from KRW 240,000 to KRW 340,000 in just one month… Samsung Electronics is the only company capable of smoothly ramping new fabs over the next three years… stands to be the biggest beneficiary of the upcycle

Summary: Shares Macquarie's bullish thesis on Samsung: PT raised to KRW 340K, biggest upcycle beneficiary via P4/P5 ramp, DRAM/NAND prices expected to double in Q1 2026.

[Exclusive] "Responding Faster to the Semiconductor Supercycle"... Samsung Electronics' Pyeongtaek Campus Also in 'Speed Mode'

Buoyed by semiconductor supercycle expectations, target price upgrades, and National Growth Fund support, Samsung Electronics is accelerating its investments. In particular, the Pyeongtaek Campus P4, P5, and P6 fabs are progressing faster than originally planned, taking on the character of an all-out sprint. The convergence of an industry upturn and policy funding is lending significant momentum to these mega-scale semiconductor investment projects.

Samsung Pyeongtaek P5: Preempting the Supercycle

According to investment industry sources on the 27th, Fab 6 (P6) is understood to have a first temporary occupancy permit scheduled for May 2029. A temporary occupancy permit marks the stage at which equipment move-in and trial operations become possible — effectively the start of the countdown to fab activation.

Typically, cleanroom interior finishing and equipment setup have taken roughly one year per line, but the recent trend is toward drastically compressed timelines. Sources say Samsung Electronics, as the commissioning party, is pressing hard for schedule acceleration, placing growing strain on contractors. The possibility of workforce expansion and overnight shifts is even being discussed. A source familiar with local conditions said: "Because the client's demand for schedule compression is so intense, contractors are reviewing options such as adding headcount and expanding weekend shift rotations."

Fab 5 (P5) has also seen notably accelerated progress. Column installation, originally scheduled for early April, reportedly began in early this month — roughly two months ahead of schedule. At the P6 site, demolition of the existing logistics warehouse (CDC) has also been moved up from the original plan, and workforce deployment timing has been brought forward as well. The source said: "The P6 CDC was originally supposed to be demolished in May before handing over the site, but the schedule was pulled forward so that personnel will be deployed to the site starting next month."

Fab 4 (P4), which has already entered the operational phase, has Phase 1 in operation, while Phase 3 is reported to have largely completed equipment move-in and setup. An investment industry source commented: "Given that yield stabilization typically takes about a year after equipment setup due to the nature of semiconductor processes, some lines appear to be effectively approaching mass production."

On the eastern side of the P5 site, an office building (Office Building 5) was originally planned, but the plan has been changed to the construction of a data center. This is interpreted as an infrastructure investment aimed at advancing semiconductor design automation and process optimization. Data centers are considered core facilities for realizing unmanned, autonomous fab operations. An industry source said: "Overall, the trend is toward compressing schedules after they've been set. While this is still at a pre-disclosure stage, judging from the design work and on-site progress, it's reasonable to view P6 as also moving into full-scale development."

National Growth Fund Support to Enable Early P5 Activation

Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics' Pyeongtaek P5 has been selected as the first mega-project under the National Growth Fund and will receive KRW 2.5 trillion in low-interest loans. Pyeongtaek P5 is a large-scale semiconductor investment with total spending exceeding KRW 60 trillion. Of the KRW 8.8 trillion in first-phase capex, KRW 6.3 trillion will be self-funded by the company, while the remaining KRW 2.5 trillion will be supplied through KRW 2 trillion from the Advanced Strategic Industries Fund (at government bond-level interest rates) and KRW 500 billion from five major commercial banks (at rates in the 3% range), each with five-year maturities.

With this financial support, Samsung Electronics plans to bring forward the equipment activation timeline from 2030 to 2028 and strengthen its competitiveness in next-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and AI semiconductor foundry services. The Financial Services Commission noted: "Unlike typical semiconductor fabs recently built with two floors, the P5 fab is being constructed as a three-story structure, which will enable more efficient expansion of semiconductor production capacity."

In particular, Samsung Electronics has also agreed to establish a KRW 200 billion special guarantee program in partnership with the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund, and to pilot domestic equipment at the Pyeongtaek P5 process line — expanding its co-prosperity model with materials, parts, and equipment (MPE) companies.

Street expectations are also rising. Global investment bank Macquarie raised its target price from KRW 240,000 to KRW 340,000 in just one month. Macquarie stated: "Commodity DRAM and NAND prices are expected to double in Q1 2026," forecasting that memory semiconductor price momentum will persist throughout the year.

Macquarie observed that Samsung Electronics stands to be the biggest beneficiary of the upcycle through its Pyeongtaek P4 and P5 lines. It added: "The company appears to be carefully allocating shipment volumes considering customers' inventory levels and its role within the technology ecosystem," and assessed that "Samsung Electronics is the only company capable of smoothly ramping new fabs over the next three years."

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https://t.co/LJVuKIzkyE


Summary: NAND prices up 100%+ in Q1, supply can't keep up with AI-driven demand; price hikes expected to continue into Q2, benefiting Samsung, Hynix, SanDisk, and Micron.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Samsung Raises NAND Prices by 100% in Q1... "Supply Can't Keep Up with Demand"

Samsung Electronics has raised the price of NAND flash memory by more than double in the first quarter. This is due to a surge in demand for NAND-based storage devices driven by the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI), while supply has not increased significantly. The memory shortage and price hike trend are expected to continue for some time.

According to industry sources on the 25th, Samsung Electronics increased the supply price of NAND flash by more than 100% in the first quarter of this year. It is understood that the company completed supply contracts with major customers at the end of last year and applied the increased prices starting from January. Following DRAM prices that were raised by up to nearly 70%, the upward trend for NAND has also intensified significantly.

NAND price increases are not a recent phenomenon. Since the end of last year, as memory supply shortages became full-blown, NAND has also been affected.

According to market research firm TrendForce, the NAND price increase in the fourth quarter of last year was 33-38% compared to the previous quarter. A similar level of increase was forecasted for the first quarter of this year, but the actual supply prices have exceeded that.

The doubling of NAND prices is not limited to Samsung Electronics. SK Hynix is also observed to be at a similar level. The two companies hold the No. 1 and No. 2 market shares in NAND. Overseas securities firms like Nomura have reported that SanDisk, the No. 5 player in the market, also plans to raise NAND prices by 100% this new year.

An industry official said, "Similar to DRAM, NAND manufacturers are successively joining the price hikes," adding, "In fact, price increases across the entire NAND market are inevitable."

The sharp rise in NAND prices is due to an imbalance between demand and supply. Demand continues to grow, but supply is insufficient. First, demand has surged, particularly for enterprise solid-state drives (eSSDs), driven by expanded investments in AI infrastructure. Additionally, the adoption of high-performance, high-capacity storage devices in mobiles and PCs has spread. This is fueled by the strong trend of 'on-device AI,' where AI computations are performed directly on the end device.

On the other hand, supply has been limited. There were no large-scale expansions of NAND flash production last year, and supply volumes did not increase significantly due to process transitions and other factors. Samsung Electronics has also been conservative in NAND investments. The consensus is that while it did not reach the level of production cuts, shipment expansions were restricted.

NAND prices are expected to rise in the second quarter as well. Samsung Electronics is reportedly in discussions with customers for NAND supply price increases in Q2.

The market impact from price hikes in memory such as DRAM and NAND is significant. First, the cost of building AI infrastructure is rising sharply. There's even talk that memory is becoming a bottleneck in AI proliferation. Price increases for various devices equipped with memory, such as smartphones and PCs, are also inevitable.

An industry official stated, "Not only AI data centers but also smartphone and PC manufacturers are planning to raise final product prices due to memory costs," adding, "Since memory supply cannot be drastically increased immediately, this trend is likely to continue for a while."

$SNDK $MU

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https://t.co/PsCPq9p06p


SK Hynix is also observed to be at a similar level


SanDisk, the No. 5 player in the market, also plans to raise NAND prices by 100% this new year


NAND manufacturers are successively joining the price hikes


Summary: Samsung passed NVIDIA/AMD HBM4 quality tests and enters mass production, signaling technology gap vs rivals closed and product leadership recovery.

[Exclusive] Samsung's HBM4 to Make Official Debut at March GTC 'Rubin' Announcement

Samsung Electronics' next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM), HBM4 (6th generation), will make its official debut alongside the next-generation AI accelerator 'Rubin' at NVIDIA's technology conference 'GTC 2026' in March.

According to the semiconductor industry today (25th), Samsung Electronics has recently passed the final quality tests for HBM4 from NVIDIA and AMD, and will enter mass production next month. The HBM4 mass-produced products shipped from Samsung Electronics in February are scheduled to be received by NVIDIA and immediately used in the performance demonstration of the next-generation AI accelerator Rubin, which will be unveiled at the March GTC event.

Samsung's HBM4 is reported to have the industry's highest specifications, operating at 11.7 Gb per second, faster than the 10 Gb required by NVIDIA and AMD. It is said that last year, it passed verification without redesign despite customer requests for performance upgrades, proving its technological completeness.

In the industry, evaluations are emerging that Samsung's memory technology has normalized starting with this shipment. It is assessed that the technological gap with competitors exposed in HBM3 and HBM3E has been resolved in HBM4, entering a phase of recovering its past product leadership.

However, full-scale large-volume supply is expected around June. Since HBM4 is a component integrated into the main body of AI accelerators like NVIDIA's 'Rubin', it is linked to the customer's final finished product mass production schedule. Considering that major customers are currently in the process of producing next-generation chips through foundries, Samsung Electronics' HBM4 shipment volume is also expected to be adjusted according to the customer's actual mass production schedule and required quantities.

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https://t.co/eAMTGoLXVE


Revenue: $34.6–35.8bn vs. consensus: $33.2bn (+6% vs. consensus)

Summary: TSMC 1Q26 guidance significantly above consensus on revenue (+6%), gross margin (+4.4pp), and operating margin (+5pp); implicitly bullish.

▶ TSMC 1Q26 Guidance

- Revenue: $34.6–35.8bnvs. consensus: $33.2bn (+6% vs. consensus)
- Gross margin (GPM): 63.0%–65.0%vs. consensus: 59.6% (+4.4pp above consensus)
- Operating margin (OPM): 54.0%–56.0%vs. consensus: 50.0% (+5.0pp above consensus)


Samsung is emerging as the 'super supplier' that will shape the global memory market this year, as its recovery in HBM technological competitiveness coincides with rising commodity DRAM prices… HBM revenue tripling year-over-year, Samsung is expected to narrow the gap with SK hynix

Summary: Bullish Samsung on HBM4 pricing power, commodity DRAM recovery, ~30% HBM share, and tripling HBM revenue driving a profitability supercycle.

HBM4, 20% More Expensive Than Its Predecessor… Samsung, the 'Super Supplier,' Devises Maximum Profitability Strategy

Samsung Electronics, which became the first in the world to begin mass production shipments of HBM4, is crunching the numbers to maximize profits.

Samsung is emerging as the "super supplier" that will shape the global memory market this year, as its recovery in HBM technological competitiveness coincides with rising commodity DRAM prices.

According to industry sources on the 18th, Samsung's recently mass-produced HBM4 products are priced at approximately $700, 20–30% more expensive than HBM3E.

Unlike with previous generations, Samsung is reportedly in a stronger position in price negotiations in the HBM4 market. As commodity DRAM profitability has converged with that of HBM products, Samsung's influence has grown as the company holds competitive advantages in both segments.

Accordingly, Samsung is recalibrating its production capacity (capa) allocation between commodity DRAM and HBM to achieve maximum profitability this year.

An industry source said, "With commodity DRAM profitability now exceeding that of HBM, Samsung no longer has a reason to maximize HBM4 volumes at the expense of its commodity DRAM lines. Having proven its HBM competitiveness recovery through best-in-class performance and industry-first mass production shipments, Samsung is now reportedly adjusting capacity carefully from a profitability standpoint."

Samsung holds the largest capacity among the three major memory makers and still derives a significant share of revenue from commodity DRAM. With memory prices—both DRAM and NAND—expected to continue rising this year, some forecasts project annual operating profit of around KRW 250 trillion.

This year's HBM market is expected to remain centered on HBM3E, while all three memory makers are expected to compete fiercely for HBM4 market share.

According to industry sources, NVIDIA is the only big tech company that has requested HBM4 supply this year. Google, Broadcom, and others are expected to continue adopting HBM3E as their primary product this year, as they did last year. If AMD—which positions itself as a competitor to NVIDIA—equips its next-generation AI accelerators with HBM4, Samsung is considered the most likely supplier given their long-standing partnership.

Samsung is projected to capture approximately 30% of the global HBM market this year. With HBM revenue tripling year-over-year, Samsung is expected to narrow the gap with SK hynix.

Meanwhile, AI accelerators equipped with Samsung's HBM4 are set to be unveiled at NVIDIA's technology conference "GTC 2026," which opens on March 16. As Samsung was the first among the three memory makers to successfully deliver, attention is focused on whether CEO Jensen Huang will mention Samsung when introducing the "Rubin" GPU during his keynote address.

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https://t.co/AesILLnC0P


Summary: Reacts to AMD's report as insanely bullish; implied long.

What an insanely bullish report.

$AMD https://t.co/8Xedh15823


Summary: Shares GF Securities Buy on AMD with raised PT to $308, driven by CPU/GPU tailwinds.

"To alleviate wafer supply concerns, we maintain our view that server CPUs may adopt Intel's 14A process by 2028."

Jeff Pu still believes that AMD will use Intel 14A.

《GF Overseas Electronics & Communications》
AMD (Buy, AMD US): Performance Outlook, Tailwinds in CPU and GPU

Raising Target Price to $308: Since last November, AMD's stock has been consolidating, but it rebounded 15% in the past week, mainly driven by reports of CPU price


Summary: Bullish DISCO Corp as beneficiary of Samsung's next-gen wafer dicing process adoption for HBM4.

DISCO Corp 6146.T Japan dicing/grinding equipment

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

I’m a big fan of DISCO. https://t.co/x5CZdBhrm3

Samsung Electronics to Enhance HBM4 Quality with Next-Generation Wafer Dicing Process

Samsung Electronics is transitioning its wafer dicing process — a critical step directly tied to semiconductor quality and yield — to a next-generation approach. The company plans to expand its https://t.co/WBl2cdKd02


Summary: GF Securities reiterates Buy on ASML, raises TP to $2059 on seller's market dynamics, TSMC-driven demand, memory supercycle, and 2027 EPS of €43.62 vs buy-side €38-40.

《GF Overseas Electronics Communication》 ASML Analysis

☄ASML: Customers Scrambling for Orders

☀SPE Now Shifts to a Seller's Market: We believe the WFE market has recently turned into a seller's market. Core customers like TSMC are chasing ASML's sales team every day to demand machines, with an enthusiasm unmatched even in the previous industry upcycle before 2024. ASML's EUV capacity is fully booked for 2026-2027, and customers are still applying for additional capacity to meet their own needs. All production factories are operating at full capacity, and the entire industry is gripped by supply anxiety.

☀More Optimistic Outlook for 4Q25 Performance: On the other hand, we are increasingly bullish on ASML's order volume for 4Q25. Driven by TSMC's procurement needs and strong demand from the memory industry, we currently predict that the quarter's new order total will reach 10 billion euros. At the same time, ASML is continuously expanding EUV capacity, and we believe this capacity expansion is expected to support the company in raising its full-year performance guidance, with revenue growth of at least 15% year-over-year.

☀Maintain Buy Rating, Target Price Raised to 2059 USD: Historical data shows that SPE companies outperform SOX during industry upcycles; and under the dual drivers of TSMC's accelerated expansion and the memory industry's super cycle, we believe the prosperity of this industry upcycle is significantly higher than the 2023-2024 cycle. Clear performance growth expectations should support higher valuation levels. Specifically for ASML, previously when intense competition among foundries like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung triggered EUV supply shortages, the company's Forward P/E reached a peak of 40x. Now, AI-driven demand is tightening the EUV market again, putting ASML into a seller's market, with capacity fully sold out for the next two years. Based on this, combined with our prediction that the company's 2027 EPS will reach 43.62 euros (vs buy-side expectations of 38-40), we are optimistic about ASML's valuation repair to the high level of 40x Forward P/E from the previous cycle, thereby raising the company's new TP to 2059 USD. Text Views

$ASML


we believe this capacity expansion is expected to support the company in raising its full-year performance guidance, with revenue growth of at least 15% year-over-year


NVIDIA is just universally the right answer, because we're flexible

Summary: Jensen Huang argues NVIDIA's flexible, unified GPU architecture delivers superior TCO vs specialized chips, implying durable competitive advantage.

Jensen Huang: Why NVIDIA’s Solution Is the Right Answer? — From the CES 2026 Analyst Q&A

"And so, my point is, because the workloads are changing so fast and because the world is innovating so fast, that's one of the reasons why NVIDIA is just universally the right answer, because we're exible. Does that make sense?

If your workload is changing from morning to night and depending on what customer you have, we're equally -- we're versatile, we're good at almost everything, and you might be able to take one particular workload and push it to the extreme, but that 10% of the workload or even 5% of the workload or 12% of the workload, if it's not being used, then all of a sudden, that part of the data center could have been used for something else. It's for 90% of the workload, and you deprived it because you only have 1 gigawatt.

The trick is to think through that one data center, not as innite money and innite space, but you have nite power. And so you have to utilize that nite power for the overall consumption of the data center, and the more flexible it is, the better it is. The more unied architecture it is, like, for example, if we updated a new DeepSeek model, and every single GPU in the data center, all of a sudden, every one of their performance go up.

I uploaded the -- updated the library for a Qwen model, and the whole data center go up. I do it for -- does that make sense? But if you have 17 dierent architectures, one is good for this thing, one's good for that thing, then as it turns out, the overall TCO is not as good. So that's the challenge.

And even when I'm building these things, I know what the challenge is. It's very hard. It's very -- I'm exploring ways to beat myself all the time and it's hard. We're exploring all kinds of dierent chips to try to build a better solution than even the one we have. It is extremely hard. But the exercise is worth it. Isn't that right?

If I'm constantly trying to come up with a new way to even do better than what I currently have, if I'm doing that myself, then I'm exploring all of the nooks and crannies. I'm trying to disrupt myself all the time, okay? So, I think that at the moment, CPX is exactly as you say, but it also reduces the exibility of the data center."


If profit growth through 2027 remains highly visible, the potential for long-term appreciation in DRAM stock prices is significant. We expect the risk of multiple de-rating to be extremely limited until the first half of 2027

Summary: Shares Samsung Securities' bullish DRAM call: profit visibility through 2027, bit-growth cap limits competition/demand risk, top-of-band P/B justified for DRAM stocks including Hynix and Micron.

DRAM sector basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix

Samsung Securities’ January 27 memory report:

LTAs as a Catalyst for Increased DRAM Price Volatility
Many investors perceive that Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) have enhanced the stability of the DRAM business. However, for LTAs to actually provide industry stability, two prerequisites must be met:

1. Fixed pricing must be maintained even during market booms.

2. Order volumes must be guaranteed even during market downturns.

In reality, most current LTAs do not fix prices at the time of contract. Similar to how stocks with low trading volumes experience higher price swings, a higher proportion of LTAs in total DRAM volume increases the price volatility of the remaining "free" supply. When LTA prices are indexed to rising market rates, overall market volatility intensifies. Notably, TSMC maintains a dual-pricing structure by applying a premium to "Hot runs" (urgent orders), separating them from standard LTA pricing.

The sustainability of LTAs during a slump remains questionable. It is still unclear whether memory suppliers can effectively enforce contract fulfillment through litigation or penalties when customers attempt to cancel orders. The crux of the matter is whether suppliers can increase the sunk cost of switching to a competitor. If enforcement is impossible, LTAs will ironically amplify DRAM price volatility during downturns.

Sustainability of DRAM Profits through 2027 via Production Constraints
Despite skepticism surrounding LTAs, the reason DRAM manufacturers' profits are expected to persist through 2027 is the clear limit on bit growth, capped at a maximum of 20% for the three major players in 2026. When production capacity is inherently limited, companies do not need to fear strategic shifts from competitors and become less vulnerable to demand fluctuations.

If profit growth through 2027 remains highly visible, the potential for long-term appreciation in DRAM stock prices is significant. Regardless of the cyclical nature of the industry, high visibility for 2027 earnings will prevent a valuation de-rating in 2026. Based on this outlook, it is justifiable to apply a P/B multiple at the top of the historical band to the BPS (Book Value Per Share). We expect the risk of multiple de-rating to be extremely limited until the first half of 2027, when SK Hynix’s Yongin Phase 1 (Y1) and Micron’s Idaho Phase 1 (ID1) fabs are scheduled to open.


the risk of multiple de-rating to be extremely limited until the first half of 2027, when SK Hynix's Yongin Phase 1 (Y1) and Micron's Idaho Phase 1 (ID1) fabs are scheduled to open


Summary: Bearish SBUX on cheap Chinese bubble tea and ice cream flooding US market, eroding competitive position.

Wow. China is dumping insanely cheap bubble tea and flooding the U.S. with delicious, affordable ice cream now. The key stronghold Times Square has fallen. Our trade defenses are crumbling! https://t.co/ViaIvc3Laj


Taiwan's three leading InP epitaxy companies—IET-KY (4971), Visual Photonics (2455), and LandMark (3081)—are riding this price increase wave

Summary: Long Taiwan InP epitaxy trio (IET, Visual Photonics, LandMark) on AI-driven InP substrate shortage forcing inevitable epitaxy price hikes and capacity lock-in demand.

Visual Photonics Epitaxy listed on TWSE as 2455.TW

AI Drives InP Epitaxy Price Hike; IET, Visual Photonics, LandMark Ride the Price Increase Wave

Driven by AI, demand for optical communications remains strong. A shortage has emerged in the upstream key material indium phosphide (InP) substrates for optical communications, prompting InP epitaxy manufacturers to prepare price increases. Following memory and copper-clad laminates, InP has become the latest AI-critical material to see price hikes. Taiwan’s three leading InP epitaxy companies—IET-KY (4971), Visual Photonics (2455), and LandMark (3081)—are riding this price increase wave.

IET, LandMark, and Visual Photonics are all positive about the outlook and are actively expanding InP epitaxy capacity to capture the shortage-driven price increase opportunity. Among them, IET’s second-phase U.S. plant began construction in July last year and is expected to be completed this year; LandMark has recently been successively expanding epitaxy capacity, with output projected to continue rising in the coming months; Visual Photonics is continuing to purchase new equipment for capacity expansion.

Industry analysis indicates that demand for optical communications from AI data centers continues to grow, with NVIDIA’s newly launched Rubin platform particularly igniting an optical communications “super cycle.” Combined with constrained substrate capacity and other factors, InP substrate prices have already risen 3% to 5% recently, and InP epitaxy prices are showing signs of movement. To ensure on-time delivery to customers, optical communication chip manufacturers are actively negotiating capacity lock-in agreements with InP epitaxy suppliers, driving intense market demand.

Industry sources note that InP substrates experienced supply bottlenecks last year due to geopolitical issues. Although related export restrictions were gradually lifted by the end of Q3 last year, the rapid surge in AI market demand has prevented upstream substrate suppliers from expanding capacity in the short term, making the supply-demand imbalance even more severe. To secure sufficient substrates and epitaxy, buyers are willing to pay higher prices, with “highest bidder wins” becoming the market norm.

Substrates are the raw material for epitaxy, and epitaxy is the raw material for optical communication chips—the supply chain is tightly interlinked, with every link affecting the whole. Now that substrate shortages and price increases are a reality, epitaxy prices are naturally poised to follow. As the substrate price rise continues, an epitaxy price increase is virtually inevitable.

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https://t.co/XnrlzrSzvx


Industrial humanoids, on the other hand — I've become far more bullish on them

Summary: Bullish industrial humanoids; skeptical/bearish on non-industrial/consumer humanoids as wage destruction eliminates purchasing power for consumer robots.

Industrial humanoids/robotics proxied by BOTZ ETF

Thoughts after reading Citrini’s piece.

Ultimately, this is one enormous game of chicken.

AI frontier labs can never reduce investment. The moment they do, they fall from a galloping horse and suffer irreversible damage. The dilemma Citrini described for incumbents — “sit still and die slower?” — applies equally to the AI labs themselves.

And the structure of this game is self-reinforcing. The more I cut to the bone, the more capacity I free up to invest, and more investment translates into stronger intelligence that can overwhelm competitors. Because the other side is running the same calculation, no one can turn the wheel first.

As Citrini precisely identified, AI investment occurs not as CapEx but as OpEx substitution, and this is how the game of chicken spreads from the labs to the entire economy. AI may not replace every job that relies on intelligence, but it structurally reduces the necessity of human intelligence. For companies, adopting AI is not a choice — it is a condition of survival.

Right now, NVIDIA is hiring aggressively. But someday even NVIDIA will freeze hiring, cut headcount, and pursue maximum efficiency through AI. The reason is simple. Competitors like AMD will aggressively leverage AI to build the capability to challenge NVIDIA. Standing still while competitors ride AI upward means obsolescence.

This is the most uncomfortable truth of this scenario. Each company’s individual response is rational, but the collective result is catastrophic — in Citrini’s words, “a feedback loop with no natural brake.” We have no choice but to invest in AI as intelligence. Even if it means letting our people go. And that decision to let people go forces someone else to make the same one.

In a game where the one who turns the wheel loses, no one turns the wheel.

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If I were to make one prediction, it would be that no employee is safe from this wave. Not even researchers at AI frontier labs.

Even the frontier labs themselves will have to let people go. To buy more compute.

And on non-industrial humanoids… I’ve grown skeptical. If wages are disappearing, where is the purchasing power for such toys? Industrial humanoids, on the other hand — I’ve become far more bullish on them.

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The core point is this: excessive efficiency improvement destroys the market.

The wheel, the steam engine, the internet — these were efficiency improvements within a range that humans could absorb. The pace of progress stayed within the speed at which society could adapt, so we embraced them willingly and built new economies on top of them.

AI is different. The improvement is exponential. And more importantly, it is not a one-time event. The steam engine was invented once, and society adapted over decades. AI gets better every quarter and cheaper every quarter. It gives no room to adapt.

As a result, we are not wielding AI as a tool — we are being displaced by it.


Summary: Venezuela invasion play: long US oil cos, long Korean shipbuilders, short US shale gas, long ENI on Venezuelan gas fields.

Investment ideas that came to mind while watching the U.S. invasion of Venezuela

1. Investing in U.S. oil companies (this is probably an obvious move that everyone will consider).

2. Investing in South Korean shipbuilders (if oil field development ramps up in Venezuela, won’t they need ships?).

3. Weakness in U.S. shale gas companies (short).

4. Europe’s ENI (ticker: E) holds natural gas fields in Venezuela.


Korea shipbuilders: HD Hyundai Heavy, Samsung Heavy, Hyundai E&C


Weakness in U.S. shale gas companies (short)

US shale gas companies proxied by XOP ETF (oil & gas E&P)


Europe's ENI (ticker: E) holds natural gas fields in Venezuela


Summary: Author endorses Citi view: favor lower-OpenAI-exposure names (Broadcom benefits from Google doubling); AMD faces volatility risk from high OpenAI exposure amid unsustainable capex.

Citi argues that as OpenAI’s bills start to come due in 2H26 and concerns rise over the debt burden required to fund the AI infrastructure build-out, investors should favor stocks with lower OpenAI exposure (they also expect AMD, given its higher OpenAI exposure, to be more volatile).

What’s especially interesting is Citi’s view that OpenAI’s 2029 capex could exceed that of the four major CSPs combined.

In my view as well, OpenAI’s level of capex is not sustainable.

I’m only just getting around to reading Citi’s 2026 semiconductor outlook… and this table is genuinely fascinating.

1. Broadcom’s revenue from Google in 2026 is expected to roughly double versus 2025, and in 2027 it could grow again to nearly double compared with 2026.

2. https://t.co/91MKDiO5Y7


Broadcom's revenue from Google in 2026 is expected to roughly double versus 2025, and in 2027 it could grow again to nearly double compared with 2026


ASML's revenue from TSMC would grow 27% YoY based on TSMC's new capex guidance. This is substantially higher than consensus expectations

Summary: Bernstein relays bullish ASML thesis: TSMC capex surge drives 27% ASML revenue growth vs 10% consensus; EUV shipments have upside to even Bernstein's above-consensus 62-unit forecast.

Bernstein: Why would TSMC’s strong capex guidance benefit ASML the most among semicap names?

Yesterday (Jan 15th), TSMC smashed market expectations with a strong capex guidance of $52-56bn. This is great news for all semi equipment names, and especially for ASML given the high litho intensity in advanced logic. We quantify the implications for ASML.

Strong TSMC capex guidance. TSMC 2026 capex guidance of $52-56bn, up 32% YoY from 2025 capex of $40.8bn at the midpoint (Exhibit 1). Revenue guidance is 30% YoY, so the capex intensity remains high at 33%. The allocation to advanced logic increased to 70-80% (up from 70%) last year. This is offset by the decreased allocation to equipment, as TSMC needs to accelerate the build out of new clean rooms in anticipation to stronger capacity needs in 2028/2029. We conclude that 1. advanced logic equipment growth in 2026 is strong at around 30%; 2. equipment demand will further accelerate in 2028/29 when the new clean rooms are ready to be filled with equipments.

Litho intensity for advanced logic is above average.
TSMC’s capacity addition is mostly for N3 and N2 this year, which is very high on litho intensity and hence benefits ASML more than other companies. We estimate that the litho intensity is as high as ~36% for N3, before coming down slightly to 32% in N2 (Exhibit 2). As currently ASML litho intensity is around 25% (Exhibit 3), the increased spending in N3 is more positive for ASML relative to other processes. We estimate that ASML’s revenue from TSMC would grow 27% YoY based on TSMC’s new capex guidance. This is substantially higher than consensus expectations, which imply TW system sales will grow only 10% YoY (Exhibit 4).

TSMC alone could buy 30 EUV... upside to EUV shipment. When we upgraded ASML (link), we forecasted 62 EUV unit shipment in 2026. Client feedback was the number was too high. Now with the TSMC capex guidance, we think there is upside even to our number. Based on the capex, we see the possibility for TSMC to add 120-130k wpm N3+N2 capacity (current model: 100k). As every 10k wpm needs 2.5 EUV machines at N3/N2, the capacity addition means TSMC alone may need to purchase 30 EUV machines, presenting upside to our forecast in EUV model (Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6).

$ASML


Summary: Bullish SNDK ahead of GTC; expects potential ICMS rack unveil as catalyst.

Do you think there will be any mention of SNDK at GTC? SNDK is looking very strong.

My guess is… they might unveil an ICMS rack.

$SNDK


Maintain Buy Rating, Raise Target Price to $60 ... we remain bullish on the stock and recommend investors accumulate positions during the pullback

Summary: GF Securities reiterates Buy on INTC, raises PT to $60; pullback is a buying opportunity on foundry progress and server CPU tailwinds.

《GF Securities Overseas Electronics Communication》
☄ Intel (INTC US Buy): Pullback is a Buying Opportunity

☀ Maintain Buy Rating, Raise Target Price to $60: Intel's stock price has risen 38% year-to-date, benefiting from the release of Panther Lake at CES and strong momentum in server CPUs. Therefore, given the high expectations driven by multiple sell-side upgrades, Intel's weak 1Q26 guidance triggered a 12% after-hours stock drop. However, we remain bullish on the stock and recommend investors accumulate positions during the pullback, considering positive progress in its foundry business: 1) Steady improvement in 18A yields; 2) Discussions on 18A-P with internal/external customers; 3) 14A has released PDK 0.5, with customer formal orders expected as early as 2H26 to 1H27. Indeed, we believe memory/substrate shortages and PC weakness will persist, dragging gross margins in the short term. Nonetheless, we expect profitability to gradually recover in future quarters, benefiting from higher 18A yields/sales and continued tailwinds in server CPUs, as well as easing capacity constraints. Longer-term, we reiterate expectations for improved foundry execution and a solid external pipeline for 14A (Apple, Nvidia, AMD, etc.). Considering performance, guidance, and product mix changes, we lower our 2026E/2027E earnings estimates by 11% and 1%, respectively. Target price of $60 based on 2.3x 2027E BVPS.

☀ Weak 1Q26 Guidance: 4Q25 revenue of $13.6 billion, flat QoQ, mainly driven by strong data center performance. Gross margin of 37.9%, above the guided 36%, primarily due to higher revenue and lower inventory provisions, as well as gradual improvement in data center profitability. EPS of $0.15, with adjusted free cash flow expanding to $2.2 billion. For 1Q26, the company guides: 1) Revenue of $11.7-12.7 billion, midpoint below consensus of $12.6 billion; 2) Gross margin of 34.5% below expectations; 3) EPS at breakeven. By segment, CCG operating margin declined to 27%, while DCAI operating margin continued to rise to 26.4%. On capital expenditures, Intel raised its 2026 capex guidance to flat to slightly down YoY, compared to prior guidance of a decline YoY.

☀ Steady Progress in Foundry: Based on our previous reports, we believe 18A yields are steadily progressing toward 70% in 1Q26, benefiting from the successful release of Panther Lake and the addition of more product categories. For 14A, the earnings call provided more positive updates, including the release of PDK 0.5 and potential customer commitments as early as 2H26 to 1H27. We reiterate expectations for potential order wins, such as Apple's mobile SoC and Nvidia/AMD x86 server chips. Additionally, we do not rule out the possibility of upward revisions to capex in subsequent earnings calls.

☀ Tailwinds in Server CPUs: CPU demand is now very strong, mainly due to their increasingly important role in data centers, managing GPU loads and handling I/O, networking, storage, and other tasks. Therefore, benefiting from strong demand from major US CSPs and data center modernization, we expect DCAI segment revenue to grow 15% YoY in 2026, accompanied by potential CPU price increases and continued gross margin improvements.

$INTC


Samsung management presented a constructive memory market outlook, expecting tight supply-demand conditions to continue through 2027... HBM3E pricing in 2026 will come in above 2025 levels. This diverges from sell-side expectations — including JPM's own — that HBM3E prices would decline in 2026. (Additional upside?)

Summary: Relays Samsung mgmt's bullish memory/HBM3E pricing outlook through 2027, flagging potential upside vs consensus on HBM3E price trajectory.

JPM Samsung Korea Conference – Key Takeaways

eSSD supply shortage to persist through 2027.

Samsung management presented a constructive memory market outlook, expecting tight supply-demand conditions to continue through 2027 (with DRAM/NAND bit demand growth significantly outpacing supply growth). Management also noted that given capex spending by suppliers is concentrated more heavily on DRAM than NAND, the eSSD NAND supply shortage is expected to be severe and prolonged.

Limited cleanroom space at P4 is cited as the primary driver of slowing supply additions, and management noted that technology migration will be the key driver of bit supply growth — particularly in NAND.

P5 construction has commenced, with management expecting approximately three years until wafer output begins.

Another notable point: Samsung management projected that HBM3E pricing in 2026 will come in above 2025 levels.

This diverges from sell-side expectations — including JPM's own — that HBM3E prices would decline in 2026. (Additional upside?)


Summary: Rubin CPX pivoting to HBM from GDDR7 signals deeper-than-modeled HBM demand; supply shortage to intensify, bullish for HBM producers including MU.

HBM sector basket: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron

KIS: Rubin CPX pivots from GDDR7 to HBM adoption

According to our channel checks, Rubin CPX is estimated to adopt HBM instead of GDDR7. NVIDIA had previously announced plans to offload prefill operations—a relatively less memory-intensive segment of AI inference workloads—onto a separate GPU, Rubin CPX, equipped with GDDR7. This design strategy was presumably based on the assessment that prefill operations require relatively lower memory bandwidth, making HBM unnecessary. The fact that Rubin CPX's memory specification has ultimately been changed to HBM is therefore highly significant. It demonstrates that even prefill operations demand high memory bandwidth and capacity in real-world production environments, and that GDDR7 is ultimately insufficient to deliver adequate performance efficiency. As NVIDIA has not yet officially announced this spec change, we have not incorporated Rubin CPX-related HBM demand into our HBM model. Should this latent demand materialize, the HBM supply shortage is expected to intensify further.

$NVDA $MU


Summary: BofA raises SK Hynix PT to KRW 1,000,000; memory oversupply not a concern until 2028+, capacity growth constrained to single digits.

Simon Woo at BofA raised his price target on SK hynix to KRW 1,000,000 and made the following comments:

- The possibility of a memory oversupply driven by new fabs should not really be debated until 2028. Even then, if the increase in memory content per NVIDIA GPU—such as with Rubin Ultra—continues, it would be hard to argue that 2028 would immediately signal a memory downturn.

- Despite the memory chipmakers’ record-high capex, DRAM and NAND wafer capacity is likely to grow only at a single-digit (%) rate per year.


I've been bullish on Micron since it was at $100, and that hasn't changed

Summary: Reaffirms ongoing bullish stance on Micron; conviction unchanged despite recent 15% cap decline.

@BullishMostly I’ve been bullish on Micron since it was at $100, and that hasn’t changed.

@jukan05 there are basically three companies in the world that make memory at the scale required by customers.
It seems ridiculous the market has removed 15% of $MU cap in a month for what? Because Samsung puts out a headline?


Most customers are experiencing difficulties in securing memory volumes and continue to demand supply expansion. Especially server customers are in a situation where secured volumes immediately lead to set builds. Inventory levels are continuously decreasing. As we move into the second half of this year, inventory levels will decline to even lower levels.

Summary: SK Hynix Q&A reveals persistent memory supply shortage, tightening inventory into 2H25, strong server demand, HBM4 on track with overwhelming share target — all pointing bullish for the stock.

SK Hynix 4Q25 Q/A

1) Regarding HBM4
HBM4 also aims for overwhelming market share, just like HBM3 and 3E.
Preparations for HBM4 are proceeding with mass production of customer-requested volumes according to the schedule agreed upon with customers.
HBM4 has achieved customer-required performance even based on 1b nano.
Plans to secure yields at the level of HBM3E using MR-MUF.
Even with current production maximization, demand cannot be fully met at 100%, so competitors' entry is expected, but competitiveness will be maintained.

2) Regarding LTA
In the past, LTAs existed, but they were somewhat loose contracts regarding volumes and flexible depending on market conditions.
In contrast, recent LTAs under discussion reflect strong commitments.
This is because suppliers also need high visibility on demand.
Customers want LTA periods to be multi-year contracts unlike before, but it is difficult to respond to all due to CAPA constraints.

3) Inventory status by major applications, owned inventory status
Most customers are experiencing difficulties in securing memory volumes and continue to demand supply expansion.
Especially server customers are in a situation where secured volumes immediately lead to set builds.
Inventory levels are continuously decreasing.
There is not enough volume to accumulate inventory, and the speed of using memory through set builds is very fast.
As it is recognized as a bottleneck in data center expansion, server companies' purchases to secure volumes are expected to continue.
PC/mobile customers are also directly or indirectly affected, experiencing difficulties in supply and demand, with inventory levels continuing to decrease.

Our company's inventory also decreased in the 4th quarter compared to the previous quarter.
As we move into the second half of this year, inventory levels will decline to even lower levels.

For NAND as well, rapid inventory reduction by server companies is observed, especially centered on eSSD.
Our company's inventory level for NAND at the end of last year was also at the same level as DRAM in terms of inventory weeks.

---

SK Hynix 4Q25 Q/A (2)

4) CAPA Optimization Strategy
Rather than focusing only on short-term performance, it is important to respond to customer demand while building trust.
Maximizing production volume as much as possible.
Currently expanding 1b nano CAPA at M15X and making efforts to improve yields.
For general DRAM, accelerating the transition speed to 1c nano and 321 layers.

5) Regarding Additional Dividends, Treasury Stock Purchase and Cancellation, ADR Plans
The financial soundness goal is to continuously hold an appropriate level of cash that allows stable business operations even during industry fluctuations and execution of CAPEX despite such fluctuations.
The required CAPEX scale will continue to increase.
There is no change in the belief that reinvesting available resources into the business to increase corporate value is the best way to utilize cash.

Due to achieving record-high performance last year, financial soundness improved faster than expected when announcing the current shareholder return policy.
Performance improvement is expected to continue this year as well.
Based on the financial capacity secured last year, as we are implementing additional shareholder returns, we will continue to review the timing and methods for additional shareholder returns in the future according to performance and cash flow.
For the return method, we will maintain the current return policy's direction while flexibly seeking the optimal approach.

There are no specifically confirmed matters regarding ADR.

6) Storage Market Outlook, Mid-to-Long-Term NAND Business Direction
We are paying attention to the fundamental changes in the AI server architecture itself.
SSD is changing into a device that performs a core role in the computation pipeline.
Along with developing conventional storage lineup, preparing next-generation storage.
Additionally, concretizing the concept of HBF technology.

---

SK Hynix 4Q25 Q/A (3)

7) Impact on Sets Due to Price Increases
PC and mobile customers are showing purchase adjustments due to increased cost burdens.
Some customers are conservatively adjusting shipment plans, reviewing spec adjustments centered on low-spec products with low price sensitivity.
However, this will not expand into a contraction of overall market demand.
This is because on-device AI is driving demand centered on high-spec products.

8) Regarding AI Corporation Establishment and Synergies
Aiming to leap beyond a simple component supplier to become a partner in the AI data center ecosystem.
Will perform the role of discovering and investing in companies that have secured core AI capabilities.
The investment commitment scale of the AI corporation will not be large compared to SK Hynix's performance or cash.
Actual investment expenditures will be made sequentially after the investment scale is confirmed.

9) Regarding CAPEX
The CAPEX scale for 2026 is expected to increase to a considerable level.
Will maintain CAPEX by comprehensively considering demand visibility and investment efficiency.
Even with the absolute CAPEX scale increasing, sales are also expected to increase, so there will be no issue in maintaining it at mid-30% of sales.
Investments in the AI corporation are not included in CAPEX and will have no impact on FCF calculations.

10) Regarding Tariffs and Additional Fab Construction in the US
Overseas semiconductor factory construction has many variables to consider, both domestically and internationally.
Currently, we are in a situation of watching the consultations being conducted by the governments of both countries.
We will share related matters in the future.


Summary: CCL and IC substrate supply chain entering ASP upgrade cycle driven by AI platform spec inflation; structural long on CCL/substrate names including Unimicron, Nanya PCB, Kinsus.

Unimicron Technology listed on TWSE as 3037.TW

▶ Entry into a price increase cycle for CCL and substrate companies alongside the advancement of AI platform specifications

- As AI server platforms rapidly evolve toward high-speed transmission and multi-layer stacking structures, the PCB and IC substrate supply chain is entering a phase of comprehensive upgrades across materials, structures, and sizes.

- As process specifications are raised to the next level, so-called "Specification Inflation" is becoming a full-fledged reality, and this is expected to act as a structural background for future product price adjustments.

- With the continuous rise in power consumption and operating frequencies of AI GPU and ASIC platforms, CCL is shifting from the existing M8 to M9 structure, and glass fiber is transitioning from Low Dk (Low Dielectric Constant) 2nd Generation to the application of Quartz Glass (Q-Glass).

- According to the supply chain, next-generation platforms such as the Vera Rubin CPX server and 1.6T switches are scheduled to adopt the combination of M9-grade Quartz Glass + HVLP4 copper foil, notably starting from the second half of 2026.

- As "Specification Inflation" led by AI servers emerges as the key keyword for next-generation technology transitions, the physical specifications of IC substrates are also continuously expanding, alongside material upgrades.

- Unimicron unveiled large-scale mass-production substrates (93×93mm) with increased layer counts from 22 to 24 layers at a 2025 exhibition, and development specifications have already expanded to 120×150mm.

- The industry is also raising the possibility of further expansion to over 150×150mm after 2027, which demands a much higher level of technical difficulty regarding process equipment and yield management.

- In addition to mainboards, demand for substrates for CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and optical modules is also rapidly increasing alongside the spread of Heterogeneous Integration.

- For CPO substrates, trends include upsizing to over 110×110mm and miniaturization to line/space widths of 5/5μm levels; consequently, demand for low-loss dielectric materials and Ultra Low Roughness (ULR) copper foil is expanding rapidly.

- Considering the rise in package module manufacturing costs, the market assesses that the entire supply chain has already secured the capacity for price adjustments, and mentions the possibility that price normalization for some product groups may precede the recovery of final demand.

- Furthermore, major substrate companies such as Nanya PCB and Kinsus are sequentially introducing high-spec materials and design standards to respond to structural changes in BT and ABF.

- Although subject to macroeconomic variables in the short term, structural drivers such as rising technical entry barriers and increased material costs remain valid. The CCL and substrate supply chain is judged to have currently entered a "new cycle where specification upgrades drive ASP adjustments."

---

https://t.co/q5bHYL36WP


major substrate companies such as Nanya PCB and Kinsus are sequentially introducing high-spec materials and design standards


Kinsus Interconnect Technology 3189.TW Taiwan


The CCL and substrate supply chain is judged to have currently entered a 'new cycle where specification upgrades drive ASP adjustments'

CCL/substrate basket: EMC, Unimicron, Ibiden, Tripod


Vibe coding will boost Apple's revenue even further

Summary: Bullish AAPL: vibe coding lowers dev barriers → more App Store submissions → higher App Store profit.

Lately I’ve been building a thesis I call the “Apple Bull” theory.

Vibe coding will boost Apple’s revenue even further.

By lowering the barrier to entry for programming, vibe coding will lead to more apps being submitted to the App Store, which in turn will generate more App Store profit for Apple.


Low Risk-Reward Attractiveness… Maintain Hold Rating… mild guidance for 1Q26 (gross margin and utilization) and 2026 TAM, which implies potential stock price pullback

Summary: Shares GF note: Hold UMC (pullback risk from mild guidance), Buy TSMC on mature-capacity shift, Buy TXN on industrial restocking recovery.

【GF Overseas Electronics Communication】
UMC (2303 TT Hold) Analysis

☄UMC (2303 TT Hold): Low Risk-Reward Attractiveness

☀Maintain Hold Rating, Raise Target Price to NT$67: UMC's stock price has risen strongly over the past 6 weeks, reflecting wins in silicon photonics orders and improvements in the pricing environment for mature processes. Nevertheless, the earnings call focused investor attention on the 2026 outlook and pricing. Although the company did not provide 2026 gross margin guidance, management believes the pricing environment has become more favorable, but it gave mild guidance for 1Q26 (gross margin and utilization) and 2026 TAM, which implies potential stock price pullback. At the same time, the company stated that cooperation with Intel is progressing smoothly and expects silicon photonics and advanced packaging to become new drivers. As mentioned in our previous report, TSMC's (2330 TT Buy) reduction in mature process capacity is a key observation point and may gradually accelerate. Considering the earnings, guidance, and higher gross margin assumptions (partly benefiting from NT$ depreciation), we raise our 2026E/2027E earnings by 22% and 51%, respectively. Our target price of NT$67 is based on 15x 2026E/2027E P/E, and we roll our valuation method from 15x 2026E to 2026E/2027E to capture the long-term improvement in the pricing environment.

☀Improving Pricing Environment: Despite UMC's moderate overall utilization, its gross margins remain resilient, benefiting from positioning in specialty processes such as high-voltage, NVM, and BCD. From a supply perspective, given TSMC's tight advanced packaging capacity, we expect TSMC to gradually adjust its 8-inch and 12-inch lagging process capacities over the next three years, shifting toward advanced packaging. According to TrendForce, global 8-inch capacity will decline by 2.4% in 2026 and may accelerate in 2027 due to TSMC closing more 8-inch capacities. At the same time, restocking demand has emerged, as shown in TI's (TXN Buy) earnings call, where industrial sector pull-in demand has recovered. On the other hand, 28nm capacity in the industry is relatively aggressive, which has both positive and negative impacts on UMC.

☀Mild 1Q26 Guidance: 4Q25 earnings exceeded expectations, with EPS of NT$0.8, down 33% QoQ and up 19% YoY, mainly benefiting from gross margin improvement. Gross margin reached 30.7%, up 90 bps QoQ, primarily driven by NT$ depreciation and product mix. For 1Q26, the company guides wafer shipments to be flat QoQ, mainly due to seasonality, increased consumer demand, and declines in communications and automotive sectors, with USD-denominated ASP stable. Based on the current NT$ exchange rate, management expects gross margin in the high-20% range, which is below expectations, possibly due to depreciation cost impacts. For 2026, the company guides its business to outperform the addressable market, with the addressable market expected to grow in the low single digits YoY. On the other hand, depreciation expenses are expected to grow in the low-teens.


TSMC's (2330 TT Buy) reduction in mature process capacity is a key observation point and may gradually accelerate


TI's (TXN Buy) earnings call, where industrial sector pull-in demand has recovered


Rubin is utilizing top-tier, high-spec HBM4... Nvidia's strategy of using fewer units of high-spec HBM4

Summary: NVDA Rubin superior on HBM4 bandwidth and cost structure; AMD MI455X faces higher costs, yield risks, and supply chain disadvantage with 12-stack HBM4.

Thoughts on NVIDIA Rubin and AMD MI455X

Let’s dive into a comparison between Nvidia’s Rubin and AMD’s MI455X, both unveiled today.

Starting with Rubin, it utilizes an 8-stack HBM4 configuration. It boasts a memory bandwidth of 22TB/s, leveraging memory with a per-pin Fmax of around 10.7Gbps.

On the flip side, the MI455X opts for a 12-stack HBM4 setup. However, it delivers a bandwidth of 19.6TB/s, using memory with a per-pin Fmax of roughly 6.4Gbps.

Considering the current JEDEC standard for HBM4 is 8Gbps, the difference is stark: Rubin is utilizing top-tier, high-spec HBM4, while the MI455X appears to be relying on HBM4 that falls below the standard spec.

This highlights a distinct divergence in corporate strategy: Using top-tier components vs. Brute-forcing capacity.

AMD likely adopted this approach because securing top-speed HBM4 volume is challenging for them. However, this strategy carries two significant risks.

First, the cost and yield implications. Mounting more HBM stacks requires a larger interposer area, which directly drives up unit costs. Furthermore, a larger footprint inevitably lowers the yield for 2.5D packaging assembly. In other words, the strategy of using more units of lower-spec HBM4 could paradoxically end up being more costly than Nvidia’s strategy of using fewer units of high-spec HBM4.

Second, the impact during memory shortages. This approach exacerbates supply chain bottlenecks. A 12-stack configuration consumes 50% more HBM chiplets/stacks per GPU compared to an 8-stack design. The tighter the global HBM4 supply, the more AMD’s shipment volume becomes capped by memory availability.

Of course, in the early stages where yields for high-spec HBM4 are low, this isn't a major issue—low yields for top-bin parts naturally result in an abundance of lower-binned supply.

But what happens as the yield learning curve improves? As yields for high-spec HBM4 rise, suppliers will have more incentive to allocate wafers to the higher-margin chips destined for Nvidia. This makes it increasingly difficult for AMD to source large volumes of low-performance HBM4 at low prices. Furthermore, with Samsung performing well in the HBM4 space, AMD won't be able to pick up inventory at "clearance" prices like they did during the HBM3E cycle.

Ultimately, AMD is facing an inherently more disadvantageous cost structure at the chip level compared to Nvidia's Rubin.


AMD is facing an inherently more disadvantageous cost structure at the chip level compared to Nvidia's Rubin


Summary: Bullish on HPSP: connects Thiel/Vance/Intel political ties, Intel fab proximity, ex-Intel exec appointment, and Thiel fund commitment to hold as signals of an undisclosed catalyst.

HPSP Co. 403870.KQ Korea KOSDAQ HP annealing equipment

I'm also researching HPSP.

Peter Thiel sponsors JD Vance.

JD Vance represents Ohio as his district, where Intel's largest fab is located.

HPSP has unusually high sales to Intel among Korean semiconductor equipment companies.

Peter Thiel's fund appointed Lee Chun-heung, the former senior vice president in charge of Intel's packaging, to HPSP.

Peter Thiel's fund, Cresando, has stated that it will not sell HPSP but will continue to hold it.

Something... something is happening.

I learned of this niche Korean semiconductor equipment firm called HPSP that has a virtual monopoly in high-pressure
hydrogen annealing equipment which is used by the most advanced nodes. The most interesting part is Peter Thiel is the biggest investor.

https://t.co/PQVhOUVoPJ


Summary: BESI singled out as the only good bonding company; implied bullish stance.

@RealPoliBear I’m not investing. Bonding companies are all bad except BESI.


we believe Google has meaningfully raised the volume expectations on MediaTek's TPU v7e for 2026 and 2027. We forecast MediaTek's TPU sales to reach US$0.8bn in 2026, US$4bn in 2027 and US$5bn in 2028... we see notable upside potential for our revenue estimates

Summary: UBS bullish on MediaTek on Google TPU v7e volume ramp; TSMC benefits as foundry for trial production.

UBS: MediaTek’s TPU-related update:

We have written extensively in recent months on Google and MediaTek's ongoing progress for TPU v7e (link, link). While many investors remain skeptical about execution,
the project made a meaningful breakthrough for tape out in early Oct 2025. With fast growing TPU demand, which may exceed the capacity that Broadcom could secure, we believe Google has meaningfully raised the volume expectations on MediaTek's TPU v7e for 2026 and 2027. We forecast MediaTek's TPU sales to reach US$0.8bn in 2026 (vs guidance of US$1bn), US$4bn in 2027 and US$5bn in 2028. Assuming TPU demand to remain robust and no major performance issues for the chips, we see notable upside potential for our revenue estimates—especially for 2027 and beyond. Our current
estimates imply MediaTek's TPU shipments to reach ~1mn units in 2027E. In an upside scenario, volumes could be in the multimillions, in our view.

TPU v7e is now through trial production at TSMC. We believe samples could be delivered to Google and MediaTek by Q126 for performance and functionality tests. Chip performance and competitiveness would be key to determining the overall project volume, in our view.

By its nature, ASIC / TPU business should have lower GM vs MediaTek's corp GM of mid 40%, but we are optimistic about the strong operating leverage if MediaTek could ship >1mn units of TPU in 2027. We estimate OPM of the project should be well above MediaTek's corp OPM of ~17% in 2025.


TPU v7e is now through trial production at TSMC. We believe samples could be delivered to Google and MediaTek by Q126


Summary: Bearish QCOM: losing Apple modem share to zero, misallocated capital into auto semis instead of ASIC, and Samsung Foundry yield improvement means Exynos chips outcompete Qualcomm in Galaxy lineup.

After reading the KeyBanc meeting report with Qualcomm's management, I still feel like $QCOM has no real future ahead.
First, let me share the key points from the report:

1. Qualcomm acknowledged in discussions with smartphone customers that the rise in memory prices and its potential impact is currently the biggest concern.
However, they say they have already reflected the increased foundry costs for the next-generation AP in their negotiations, so at this point they believe there will be no impact on gross margin (GM).

2. Qualcomm is maintaining its existing forecast that its modem share in iPhone 18 will be 20%, and in iPhone 19 it will drop to 0%.

3. They hope that the 2nm contract with Samsung Foundry will help them recover their share in Galaxy S27 after having only 75% share in Galaxy S26.

What I find difficult to understand is this: Qualcomm made an enormous amount of cash by selling modems to Apple, yet instead of investing that money into something like the ASIC business, they poured it into the automotive semiconductor business. And now they're trying to increase sales to Samsung by ordering their own flagship chips from Samsung Foundry...
But if Samsung Foundry's yield improves, wouldn't it make far more sense for Samsung to just produce more of their own Exynos chips rather than manufacturing Qualcomm chips? For that reason, I personally find it extremely, extremely difficult to agree with the outlook that Qualcomm's chip share will increase in the S27.


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley and KGI buy-side upgrades on TSMC with raised PTs, projecting +25% revenue in 2027 and +20% in 2028 on four bullish catalysts.

Morgan Stanley Raises TSMC Target Price, Projects Strong Revenue Growth in 2027–2028 on Four Key Catalysts (Commercial Times)

- Morgan Stanley raised its target price on TSMC to NT$2,288, citing four bullish catalysts: capacity expansion, faster-than-expected production ramp-up, rising capex, and strong revenue growth. KGI Securities also lifted its target to NT$2,420, reflecting the potential for expanded CoWoS advanced packaging capacity.

- Morgan Stanley noted that TSMC is expanding capacity more aggressively than anticipated, with infrastructure buildout — including cleanroom construction — proceeding ahead of schedule. The company plans to build a total of 12 new front-end wafer fabs by end-2027, including 3nm facilities in Arizona and Kumamoto, Japan, along with four advanced packaging plants.

- Wafer fab equipment (WFE) capex in 2027 is projected to grow +20–30% YoY, prompting upward revisions to TSMC's capex outlook — now estimated at $65B in 2027 and $70B in 2028.

- Morgan Stanley noted that significant efficiency gains across process node transitions, cleanroom construction, and equipment installation have shortened the investment-to-revenue conversion cycle by approximately nine months. As a result, TSMC revenue is now projected to grow +25% YoY in 2027 and +20% YoY in 2028.

$TSM

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https://t.co/3HUQozvCZB


Summary: Macquarie sharply raises PTs for Samsung (+24% to KRW 340k) and SK Hynix (+21% to KRW 1.7M) on surging earnings forecasts.

Macquarie sharply raises earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics / SK hynix

1. Samsung Electronics

• Target price: KRW 340,000 (+24% vs. prior)

• Operating profit (OP): FY26E KRW 301tn (US$208.8B) / FY27E KRW 477tn (US$330.9B)

2. SK hynix

• Target price: KRW 1,700,000 (+21% vs. prior)

• Operating profit (OP): FY26E KRW 272tn (US$188.7B) / FY27E KRW 447tn (US$310.2B)


SK hynix • Target price: KRW 1,700,000 (+21% vs. prior)


Macquarie projected in a recent report that SK Hynix's NAND OPM will reach 79% this year… SK Hynix's operating profit this year will surge 476.8% year-over-year

Summary: Shares Macquarie bullish thesis: NAND OPMs surging to 75-79% at Samsung/Hynix on AI inference demand; SNDK tagged as beneficiary.

Samsung & SK NAND Operating Margins Forecast at 70%+ … AI-Driven Memory Rally Extends Beyond HBM Across the Board

A surge in AI-driven memory demand is expected to push Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's NAND operating profit margins (OPM) up to the 70% range this year. While high-bandwidth memory (HBM) has been the primary earnings driver so far, analysts say we have now entered a phase of a "full-spectrum memory rally," with conventional DRAM and NAND both surging in tandem.

According to industry sources on the 2nd, global investment bank Macquarie projected in a recent report that SK Hynix's NAND OPM will reach 79% this year. Considering that NAND OPM was around 12% last year, this represents a more than sixfold improvement in profitability within a single year.

Samsung Electronics' NAND OPM, which had been hovering near cash-cost levels as recently as 2023, is now expected to reach approximately 75.9% this year.

"Cash-cost level" refers to a stage where a company barely covers its minimum manufacturing cash costs, excluding depreciation and similar charges — effectively a breakeven zone generating almost no profit. The key driver behind NAND's emergence as a strategic product for memory makers, alongside HBM, is the shift in AI workloads from training to inference.

While HBM played a critical role in the ultra-high-speed computation required for training, large-scale storage capable of storing and retrieving massive datasets is essential for running inference at scale for global users. NVIDIA's upcoming "Rubin" GPU, for instance, incorporates 16 terabytes (TB) of eSSD per unit. On a server rack basis — with 72 GPUs per rack — that translates to 1,152 TB of storage capacity per rack, structurally driving NAND demand higher.

Rather than expanding cleanroom capacity, manufacturers are focusing on process transitions such as higher layer-count stacking, leaving supply significantly short of demand. SK Hynix, which began mass production of its 321-layer (321L) QLC NAND in the second half of last year, is aggressively ramping up the product's share, with the new product expected to account for half of total NAND shipments (by capacity) by year-end.

DRAM is also on a steep upward trajectory alongside NAND. SK Hynix's DRAM contract prices are estimated to have risen approximately 100% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025 alone. The company's full-year DRAM average selling price (ASP) increase is projected at 160%.

Accordingly, Macquarie forecasts SK Hynix's operating profit this year will surge 476.8% year-over-year to KRW 272.269 trillion.

Samsung Electronics is likewise expected to see a significant boost in profitability, centered on its memory business, mirroring SK Hynix's trajectory. Macquarie stated that "Samsung Electronics' net profit will increase tenfold between 2025 and 2028."

$SNDK

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https://t.co/8XyLSomG8K


Samsung Electronics' net profit will increase tenfold between 2025 and 2028


When 3D NAND was introduced, Lam Research's revenue doubled. We expect a similar revenue opportunity with DRAM. SAM to expand by 1.7x to 1.8x, new dry photoresist equipment to generate cumulative new revenue of $1.5 billion over the next five years

Summary: Long LRCX: 3D DRAM transition to expand SAM 1.7-1.8x, new etch/TSV/dry-PR equipment poised to replicate NAND revenue-doubling opportunity.

Lam Research: "DRAM Architecture Evolving from 4F² to 3D"

DRAM memory is expected to evolve from its current planar structure to 3D DRAM, driven by the need to overcome the limits of miniaturization.

Doug Bettinger, CFO of Lam Research, said at a recent Morgan Stanley Media Conference: "As we've emphasized for some time, semiconductor architectures are largely evolving in the 3D direction. DRAM will transition from 6F² to 4F², and ultimately evolve into 3D DRAM."

F refers to the minimum feature size achievable in a given semiconductor manufacturing process, and F² (F-square) denotes the cell area defined by that feature size. In the 6F² structure, a single cell is rectangular at 3F × 2F, whereas in the 4F² structure, the cell is square at 2F × 2F.

The transition from 6F² to 4F² reduces cell area, which is known to improve wafer-level chip productivity by approximately 20%. For this reason, major DRAM manufacturers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are developing 4F² DRAM with a vertical transistor structure as their next-generation product. The planned approach involves bonding a cell array wafer — which stores data — with a peripheral circuit (peri) wafer via hybrid bonding.

The 3D DRAM that Bettinger referenced represents a further step beyond this. It involves vertically stacking multiple cell layers of the 4F² DRAM structure, analogous to 3D NAND, which stacks flash memory cells. This enables higher density per unit area. The physical limits of scaling in conventional planar (2D) semiconductor structures are well established, and following NAND, DRAM has now also committed to a 3D architecture for vertical integration.

Lam Research expects the 4F² structure to be commercially adopted one to two process nodes from now. Over this transition, the company projects its serviceable addressable market (SAM) to expand by 1.7x to 1.8x, as 3D stacking requires high-aspect-ratio etch equipment to drill through-silicon vias (TSVs) and electroplating equipment to fill TSVs with copper.

Bettinger noted: "When 3D NAND was introduced, Lam Research's revenue doubled. We expect a similar revenue opportunity with DRAM." The company has launched a new etch system, Akara, which is specifically designed for 4F² and 3D DRAM processes. It also offers Syndion, an etch system for TSV processing, and Sabre 3D, an electroplating system.

Lam Research forecasts the front-end equipment market to grow 23% this year. To meet customer demand, the company is expanding production capacity at facilities including its Malaysia plant. That said, the current industry constraint is not equipment production capacity per se, but rather a shortage of cleanroom space. This bottleneck is carrying over equipment demand into next year, with high performance expected to continue.

Lam Research has recently been pursuing its "Beyond NAND" strategy, which centers on diversifying its product portfolio beyond memory equipment into foundry, logic, and advanced packaging equipment. Last year, foundry and logic revenue accounted for approximately 59% of total revenue — a reversal from 2022, when memory represented 60% of total equipment sales. The Akara, Syndion, and Sabre 3D systems for 3D DRAM manufacturing are all part of this diversification strategy.

The company has also entered the track equipment market for lithography processes for the first time. Bettinger stated that "new dry photoresist (PR) technology equipment has been deployed and is now running in the actual production lines of our largest DRAM customer." Lam Research uses its deposition technology to form the photoresist on wafers, offering higher productivity compared to conventional wet chemical methods. The company expects the new equipment to generate cumulative new revenue of $1.5 billion over the next five years.

$LRCX

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https://t.co/66oqLiDE48


Summary: GF International: Buy NVDA on CPO roadmap acceleration; bullish Lumentum on CW Laser demand; neutral Coherent; expect Browave (3163 TT) to benefit from CPO Shuttle Box ramp.

《GF International Electronics & Communications》

AI Networking: NVIDIA's Accelerated Roadmap, CPO Technology Debate Heats Up

Key CPO Takeaways from Recent Earnings Calls: Coherent mentioned it has secured a significant order from a leading AI data center customer to supply CW Lasers for its CPO systems. Initial revenue is expected to begin in 4Q26, with more meaningful contributions starting in 2027. Lumentum stated it has received hundreds of millions of dollars in CW Laser commitments for Scale-out CPO, with volume production contributions beginning in 1H27. Assuming combined order value of $400 million for laser suppliers such as LITE and COHR in 2027, this implies approximately 80,000 Scale-out CPO switches will be shipped that year. We believe this CPO switch shipment volume is consistent with downstream suppliers' capacity buildout plans.

NVIDIA May Accelerate Scale-out CPO Switches: At GTC 2025, NVIDIA (NVDA, Buy) unveiled its CPO switches, with Quantum-X planned for launch in 2H25 and Spectrum-X in 2H26. NVIDIA's first-generation Scale-out CPO (Quantum-X) adopts a pluggable architecture rather than true CPO. The system supports 115.2T switching bandwidth and integrates 36 pluggable optical engines, making it more accurately classified as NPO. However, due to its lack of cost-performance advantage over traditional pluggable solutions, customer adoption has been limited, with minimal shipments in 2025. For GTC 2026, we expect NVIDIA may unveil a next-generation CPO switch. This generation is expected to feature 115.2T bandwidth, with the CPO portion manufactured by TSMC. We believe this CPO design offers significant improvements in thermal performance and bandwidth, with cost-performance far exceeding the previous generation. The supply chain is expected to begin ramping in 2Q26 and accelerate through 2H26/2027. Driven by NVIDIA's aggressive push and bundling sales strategy, we are raising our NVIDIA Scale-out CPO switch shipment estimates for 2025/2026/2027 to 2,000/20,000/80,000 units. As for 2027, despite the surge in shipments, our estimate represents only a single-digit percentage of total Scale-out switch shipments for the year.

NVIDIA Scale-up CPO Progress Update: According to recent earnings calls, Lumentum emphasized that as copper interconnects approach their limits, optical Scale-up represents a long-term structural opportunity beginning in late 2027. As we noted in our report, we expect NVIDIA to introduce CPO/NPO within the NVL576 architecture starting with Rubin Ultra in 2H27, specifically for Scale-up interconnects. Within the NVL576 architecture, Compute trays and Switch trays are expected to continue relying on backplane connections, while inter-rack interconnects may transition to CPO- or NPO-based optical interconnects. Technically, CPO holds clear advantages in power consumption and bandwidth density, while NPO is easier to manufacture and maintain. We believe TSMC's Scale-up CPO solution has already provided samples, but mass production readiness remains uncertain, indicating that the NPO vs. CPO debate will persist in the near term.

Key Beneficiary Stocks: Overall, Scale-up CPO represents a purely incremental opportunity for the optical interconnect supply chain, as it aims to replace copper interconnects without affecting Scale-out. Furthermore, Scale-up and Scale-out CPO solutions share the same suppliers. Accordingly, we expect the primary beneficiaries to be component suppliers of FAUs, CW Lasers, ELS FP modules, and Shuffles. Our views: 1) Bullish on Lumentum, given upside potential in CW Laser demand; 2) Neutral impact on Coherent; 3) We expect Browave (3163 TT) to benefit, given its approximately 50% market share in CPO Shuttle Boxes, unit price of $5,000–6,000, and volume production ramp beginning in 2Q26.

$COHR $LITE $NVDA


Bullish on Lumentum, given upside potential in CW Laser demand


Coherent mentioned it has secured a significant order from a leading AI data center customer to supply CW Lasers for its CPO systems. Initial revenue is expected to begin in 4Q26, with more meaningful contributions starting in 2027

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'


Summary: Memory pricing expected to cool off; sustainability of price rises in doubt as hyperscalers signal budget constraints.

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

IMO, memory pricing will cool off. The hyperscalers keep complaining that they’re out of money.

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Now, what matters isn’t how much memory prices rise, but whether they can be sustained.


Summary: Long Ciena and Cisco as leading beneficiaries of AI-driven optical networking supercycle; Scale-Across DCI and 800G coherent module demand to drive prolonged growth.

OFC 2026 Preview: The New Optical Module Supercycle Driven by Scale-Across

■ As AI infrastructure investment expands, datacenter networking is emerging as a new bottleneck. While the previous AI investment cycle was centered on GPUs and servers, the optical network infrastructure responsible for data movement is now rising as the critical limiting factor on performance. Accordingly, analysts are arguing that the optical communications industry is entering a new supercycle.

■ Datacenter architecture is also transitioning from the traditional Scale-Up model to a Scale-Across paradigm. Previously, the dominant approach was to increase GPU counts within a single datacenter, but as model sizes have grown dramatically, limitations in power, cooling, and network architecture have become apparent. As a result, configurations that connect multiple datacenters via high-speed optical networks are proliferating, and demand for datacenter interconnect (DCI) is surging.

■ This structural shift is driving rapid growth in the optical module market. In particular, demand for coherent optical modules — used for long-distance datacenter connectivity — is growing quickly, and the technology generation is rapidly transitioning from 400G to 800G. Market data suggests that the 800G optical module market will grow approximately 10x year-over-year in 2026.

■ Changes are also visible at the network architecture level. Rather than the integrated optical systems traditionally supplied by telecom equipment vendors, hyperscalers are adopting ZR/ZR+ pluggable optical module architectures that insert directly into routers and switches. This approach offers advantages in cost reduction, power efficiency, and network design flexibility, and is becoming the standard architecture for hyperscale datacenters.

■ Cisco and Ciena are identified as the leading beneficiaries of this optical network upgrade cycle. Ciena holds approximately 30% market share in optical transport and maintains a competitive advantage through its WaveLogic DSP technology, while Cisco has secured a strong position in the pluggable optical module market. As AI infrastructure investment enters a phase where both compute and networking grow in tandem — rather than compute alone — the optical communications industry is expected to enter a prolonged growth phase.

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https://t.co/PKn7hZQTL7


Cisco has secured a strong position in the pluggable optical module market


Summary: GF maintains Hold/PT $270 on CLS but flags TPU + networking upside; also flags Hon Hai capturing ~20% TPU share vs 5% consensus.

《GF Overseas Electronics & Communications》

Celestica (CLS US Hold): TPU and Network Upside Potential Offsets ODM Share Rebalancing

Maintain Hold Rating and Target Price of 270 USD: We expect Google's TPU server supply chain to further expand in 2026, with Hon Hai starting L10/L11 production in 1Q26 and potentially capturing a higher-than-expected share. Celestica remains a key supplier for Google's TPU L6 and rack-level solutions. Meanwhile, CLS's communications segment benefits from accelerating network demand, including continued growth in 800G and the ramp-up of 1.6T in 2026, which will support upside potential in gross margins and EPS. Therefore, we forecast 2026E/2027E EPS at 8.7/12.3 USD. The target price remains at 270 USD, based on a 22x 2027E P/E ratio.

Google's TPU Server Supply Chain Further Expands: Hon Hai is expected to start TPU server L10/L11 production in 1Q26. We anticipate Hon Hai could capture about 20% market share, higher than the current consensus of about 5%, considering Hon Hai's strong manufacturing capabilities and scale. We believe this reflects a broader supply chain rebalancing, influenced by overall volume allocation. CLS remains the key leading provider for Google's TPU L6 and rack-level solutions. At the same time, we believe Meta has halted further development of the Iris project (retaining Iris Plus) due to increased design complexity. In 2026, Iris's CoWoS capacity is expected to shift to Google, implying a downward revision in Meta AI server revenue and a higher contribution from TPU.

Communications Segment to Continue Benefiting Significantly from Rapid Industry Growth in 2026/27: We expect continued upward revisions in Google's TPU demand to drive corresponding upgrades in the network supply chain, including optical modules, lasers, and switches. We anticipate sustained growth in 800G switch demand next year, while 1.6T switches will begin ramping up in the second half of this year and accelerate rapidly in 2026. CLS is well-positioned to capture this upside potential; moreover, given that switch gross margins are higher than servers, we believe the network business will provide a more significant positive contribution to overall gross margins and EPS. Additionally, we are optimistic about emerging O trends; as a key contract manufacturer in the Google ecosystem, we expect CLS to also have growth potential in O switch assembly.


Hon Hai is expected to start TPU server L10/L11 production in 1Q26. We anticipate Hon Hai could capture about 20% market share, higher than the current consensus of about 5%

Hon Hai Precision 2317.TW Taiwan (Foxconn)


It's still cheap, and the competitive edge is really strong. Still, I can't bring myself to sell after holding it this long, so I'm just going to keep HOLDing…

Summary: Continuing to hold NVDA; views it as still cheap with strong competitive edge despite underperformance vs Korean stocks.

My biggest mistake this year was holding Nvidia. I should’ve bought Korean stocks with that money instead!

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Still, I can’t bring myself to sell after holding it this long, so I’m just going to keep HOLDing…

It’s still cheap, and the competitive edge is really strong.


Summary: Samsung to benefit as NVIDIA's HBM4 dual-bin strategy favors top-spec suppliers; Samsung's 11.7 Gbps HBM4 positions it as the preferred top-bin source.

NVIDIA's AI Accelerator 'Tiering' Coming... Focus on HBM4 Processing Speed

Big tech companies including NVIDIA are expected to devise a 'high-performance-centric' memory supply strategy to maximize next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) accelerator performance. In this scenario, Samsung Electronics—which holds a technical edge in specifications within the 6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) market—stands to benefit.

According to industry sources on the 19th, NVIDIA is reviewing a 'Dual Bin' structure to simultaneously secure HBM4 supply stability and performance. Dual binning is a strategy where chips based on the same design are supplied in top-tier and second-tier grades based on speed, power efficiency, and other criteria.

Big tech companies are expected to apply 'top bin' chips rated at 11.7 Gbps or above to their flagship products, while using 'second bin' chips in the 10 Gbps range for complementary products in parallel.

In NVIDIA's case, rather than expanding lower-spec volume, the company is likely to focus on high-performance bins for its flagship products—driven by the symbolic importance of achieving peak AI accelerator performance.

Big tech firms are grappling with memory bottlenecks as they develop next-generation AI accelerators. While compute units (GPUs) operate at high speeds, memory transfer speeds cannot keep pace, degrading overall system efficiency.

Samsung Electronics' HBM4 operates at 11.7 Gbps on paper. It utilizes 1c (6th-generation 10nm-class) DRAM and a 4nm-based base die. This exceeds the JEDEC standard of 8 Gbps by approximately 46%. It represents a 1.22x improvement over HBM3E (9.6 Gbps), with prospects of achieving up to 13 Gbps going forward.

An industry official explained, "Rather than simply focusing on volume procurement, NVIDIA is prioritizing accelerator performance maximization," adding that "Samsung Electronics' influence will strengthen as it can stably produce top-bin parts."

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https://t.co/xcTrDp3JsC


Summary: Samsung wins sole HBM4 supplier deal with OpenAI for Titan chip, following earlier wins with NVIDIA and AMD; cements leadership in advanced AI memory.

[EXCLUSIVE] Samsung Electronics Breaks Into OpenAI — Sole Supplier of 800 Million Gb HBM4

Samsung Electronics will become the first and sole supplier of next-generation High Bandwidth Memory 4 (HBM4) to OpenAI, the world’s largest artificial intelligence company. OpenAI plans to integrate Samsung’s HBM4 into its first-generation in-house AI chip, codenamed “Titan.” With this win following its earlier HBM4 supply agreement with NVIDIA, Samsung is being credited with cementing its leadership in the advanced AI chip market.

According to industry sources on the 19th, Samsung Electronics has agreed to supply OpenAI with up to 800 million gigabits (Gb) of HBM4 (12-layer product) in the second half of this year. That volume represents approximately 7% of Samsung’s total planned HBM output for the year (over 11 billion Gb), and roughly 15% of its HBM4-specific production (approximately 5.5 billion Gb). The allocation is understood to be the third largest after NVIDIA and AMD.
The HBM4 units Samsung will deliver are destined to sit alongside OpenAI’s first-ever AI chip, Titan Gen 1, developed in partnership with Broadcom. TSMC is expected to begin production in Q3, with a launch targeted for year-end.

The deal is seen as particularly significant given that OpenAI — the company that ignited the generative AI boom with the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 — selected Samsung as its inaugural HBM supplier. OpenAI also sits at the center of the United States’ Stargate Project, a planned $500 billion AI infrastructure initiative.

First Fruits After the JY Lee–Altman Meeting… AI Chip Orders Keep Coming
OpenAI operates hundreds of thousands of AI chips across its data centers to deliver generative AI services, having relied heavily on NVIDIA’s general-purpose AI semiconductors. More recently, the company concluded that it needed its own custom chips optimized for inference workloads — a trend that has become central to next-generation AI development.
An industry insider noted that “OpenAI has been investing heavily in R&D to successfully mass-produce its Titan chip,” adding that “Samsung satisfied the stringent HBM4 requirements that OpenAI set out, which is what made this deal possible.”

Given that OpenAI has chosen Samsung as its first-ever HBM supplier, observers believe Samsung HBM is likely to be incorporated into future Titan generations as well.

HBM stacks multiple DRAM dies vertically — similar to floors in an apartment building — delivering greater capacity and faster data transfer speeds than conventional DRAM, making it the memory of choice for AI applications. Micron Technology has projected that the global HBM market will grow from approximately $35 billion in revenue last year to around $100 billion by 2028.

Samsung’s HBM business had a difficult stretch through last year, suffering back-to-back failures in NVIDIA’s qualification tests for HBM3 and HBM3E — a significant blow to the pride of the world’s top memory chipmaker. The turnaround came in May 2024, when Vice Chairman Jeon Young-hyun made the bold decision to redesign the DRAM at the core of Samsung’s HBM.

This year, Samsung passed NVIDIA’s HBM4 qualification without a single design revision, enabling direct shipment of mass-production units. On March 18th, AMD announced it had designated Samsung as its preferred HBM4 supplier. Demand for the prior-generation HBM3E is also said to be surging. Samsung is reportedly targeting over 5 billion Gb of HBM3E for Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) — also developed in partnership with Broadcom — in addition to its NVIDIA supply commitments.

Behind the OpenAI HBM4 deal, JY Lee, Chairman of Samsung Electronics, reportedly played a pivotal role. In October of last year, Lee met with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and exchanged a Letter of Intent (LOI) covering the supply of cutting-edge AI memory including HBM, laying the groundwork for the agreement that has now come to fruition.

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https://t.co/l9Qt2mh5nd


I find it hard to recommend AMD outright. AMD's x86 CPU division is full of excellent people, but the business environment is not especially favorable. On top of that, AMD does not have its own fabs, so it has to compete with other companies for TSMC capacity.

Summary: Prefers TSMC and Intel as CPU bottleneck plays on tightening wafer capacity; cautious on AMD (no fabs, unfavorable environment) and ARM (smartphone royalty headwinds).

Yesterday’s CPU bottleneck trade — among AMD, ARM, and Intel, which was actually the best trade?

Let me share my view.

Obviously, CPU price increases are positive. They should help earnings materially.

That said, what we need to understand is that hyperscalers have been moving toward in-house CPU ASICs for quite a long time. They still procure x86 CPUs for external customers, but for internal workloads, many are already relying on their own CPU ASIC solutions.

That is why I find it hard to recommend AMD outright. AMD’s x86 CPU division is full of excellent people, but the business environment is not especially favorable. On top of that, AMD does not have its own fabs, so it has to compete with other companies for TSMC capacity.

As for ARM, I do not think it is really a pure CPU trade at this point. Because of the memory apocalypse, it seems quite obvious that smartphone royalties — still its largest revenue source — are likely to take a meaningful hit.

Therefore, in my view, the better CPU bottleneck trade is foundry companies.

First, TSMC. If everyone starts rushing to produce CPUs as well, TSMC wafer capacity will become even tighter, which will further strengthen TSMC’s bargaining power. I think a lot of people are missing this point.

Second, Intel.

Because it has its own fabs, even if not immediately, Intel should be in a better position than competitors to expand CPU supply over time. Also, as TSMC capacity becomes increasingly constrained, it is possible that more companies will look to manufacture ASICs and CPUs at Intel Foundry, which is another positive.

I also want to comment on GUC. GUC’s core business is building server CPUs using licensed ARM IP, but I am skeptical about whether GUC can really compete against ARM’s own CPU efforts.

$AMD $INTC $ARM $TSM


I do not think it is really a pure CPU trade at this point. Because of the memory apocalypse, it seems quite obvious that smartphone royalties — still its largest revenue source — are likely to take a meaningful hit.


If everyone starts rushing to produce CPUs as well, TSMC wafer capacity will become even tighter, which will further strengthen TSMC's bargaining power.


Intel should be in a better position than competitors to expand CPU supply over time. Also, as TSMC capacity becomes increasingly constrained, it is possible that more companies will look to manufacture ASICs and CPUs at Intel Foundry, which is another positive.


Summary: Samsung and SK Hynix cutting NAND production into strong AI-driven demand will drive price increases and margin expansion; $SNDK also flagged as a beneficiary.

Samsung and SK Hynix to Cut, Rather Than Increase, NAND Flash Production This Year… “Maximizing Profits in Super Boom Period”

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which together hold more than 60% of the global NAND flash market, are expected to reduce their NAND flash production this year. As competition in inference-type artificial intelligence (AI), led by Nvidia, intensifies, tight supply of NAND flash—a key component—is likely to drive price increases across servers, PCs, mobiles, and other sectors. Analysts say this will be a major positive factor for improving the operating margins of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, on par with DRAM.

According to data from market research firm Omdia obtained by Chosun Biz on the 20th, Samsung Electronics has slightly lowered its NAND wafer production from 4.9 million wafers last year to 4.68 million this year. This is a further reduction from the production cuts implemented last year due to a sharp drop in NAND profitability in 2024. SK Hynix is also projected to follow a similar path, reducing NAND production from around 1.9 million wafers last year to 1.7 million this year.

Given that the NAND market this year is seeing strong AI-driven demand, supply adjustments by the leading suppliers—Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—are highly likely to exacerbate shortages not only in AI servers but also in mobiles and PCs. According to Citigroup, Nvidia’s next-generation AI accelerator “Vera Rubin,” set for mass production in the second half of this year, will feature solid-state drives (SSDs) with a capacity of 1,152 terabytes (TB)—more than 10 times that of the current “Blackwell” product. With Vera Rubin shipments projected at 30,000 units this year and 100,000 units next year, this translates to new demand of 34.6 million TB in 2026 and 115.2 million TB in 2027.

The reduction in NAND production by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is largely attributed to lower investment priority for NAND facilities compared to DRAM, which currently shows the highest profitability. Additionally, as demand grows for high-capacity SSDs in AI data centers, the transition to quad-level cell (QLC) technology inevitably leads to natural production losses. Switching from existing triple-level cell (TLC) technology to QLC, which is better suited for AI data centers, involves various factors such as facility setup, stabilization periods, and initial yield rates.

Management at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix reportedly see no reason to aggressively increase NAND production. For years, NAND has suffered from poor profitability, requiring both companies to focus on price defense. Now, in this memory super-boom cycle, they aim to maximize profits as much as possible. An industry insider commented, “Whether the NAND production cuts by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are intentional or natural, the benefits from reduced supply will be greatest this year.”

Some analysts suggest the moves are also a response to growing supply of commodity NAND from China. Unlike Samsung and SK Hynix, China’s YMTC has been increasing its presence and output in the NAND market since last year. This is interpreted as a strategy to counter low-price competition from China by reducing supply in mobile and PC segments to protect profitability while increasing higher-margin server and enterprise volumes to manage the product mix.

Major market research firms are forecasting a strong NAND price uptrend starting in the first quarter and closely monitoring production discipline by key suppliers. TrendForce predicts NAND flash contract prices will rise 33–38% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, noting that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are maintaining a conservative production stance. IDC also expects NAND supply growth this year to be around 17%—lower than the average of recent years.

$SNDK

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https://t.co/iSiEmOtSAU