Summary: Shares/endorses Citi raising QCOM estimates and target price on HUMAIN contract; modest bullish revision with caveats on competitive positioning.

251028: QCOM Joins AI Race - CITI

1. Today, Qualcomm announced two new AI-related products [AI200/AI250] and signed a chip supply contract with Saudi Arabia’s HUMAIN worth up to 200MW.

(2) We estimate that this contract will contribute approximately $1 billion in additional revenue and a positive EPS impact of about $0.25 for Qualcomm.

(3) For reference, Broadcom’s revenue per 1 GW is roughly $10 billion, whereas this deal is only 200 MW in scale and involves lower-priced chips.

(4) In terms of competitiveness, Qualcomm remains several years behind NVIDIA/AMD/Broadcom and, since it does not use HBM, is disadvantaged in high-performance compute.

(5) The current market competition prioritizes maximum compute performance rather than cost efficiency.

(6) Nonetheless, we slightly raise our earnings estimates and target price following this deal:
 ■ FY26(F) Revenue: $43 bn → $44 bn / EPS: $9.03 → $9.24
 ■ FY27(F) Revenue: $48 bn → $49 bn / EPS: $10.75 → $10.97

⸻

[Implication]

(1) AI200 is a rack-level AI inference-only solution designed to drastically improve TCO, while AI250 adopts a near-memory computing architecture delivering over 10× memory bandwidth with lower power consumption.
 ■ AI200 to be commercialized in 2026, AI250 in 2027
 ■ Equipped with Direct Liquid Cooling system
 ■ Supports PCIe (scale-up) and Ethernet (scale-out) configurations
 ■ Includes Confidential Computing for secure AI workloads
 ■ Rack-level power draw: 160 kW

(2) The AI accelerator market continues to multiply, with multiple vendors driving diverse product innovations.

(3) Although the HUMAIN contract is not large in scale, securing a meaningful customer for a rack-level solution at this stage is impressive.

(4) Moreover, Qualcomm is the first to commercialize an architecture that reduces data-movement bottlenecks by placing compute units close to memory.

(5) This design minimizes data movement by positioning compute cores directly adjacent to memory; however, it is limited to inference, not training.

(6) There is no need for premature conclusions regarding HBM; it is worth tracking whether Qualcomm secures additional meaningful contracts going forward.

(7) As the overall AI market expands, diverse and fragmented demand will emerge, giving rise to differentiated products targeting the low-cost + high-efficiency inference segment.

(8) The memory-centric computing paradigm will persist.

$QCOM


Summary: AVGO guiding AI revenues above all Street estimates for F2026; $73B backlog ships within 12 months.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

- The $73B AI backlog is expected to be shipped within 12 months.

- Anthropic is currently the only rack customer, while OpenAI is expected to be a traditional ASIC customer.

Ultimately, AVGO is confident it can deliver AI revenues above current Street expectations for F2026, indicating it will beat any estimates seen on the buy-side or sell-side.

$AVGO


Summary: H200 export-to-China scenario benefits Amkor (packaging), Samsung (legacy HBM), and TSMC if White House allows H200 exports.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Thoughts on Reuters’ report that the White House is considering allowing exports of the H200 to China:

1. Has the idea that the H20 is just too weak finally spread within the White House?

The H20 was from the start a low-performance, neutered chip. As Rutnik said, it wasn’t a first-tier or second-tier product, but more like a fourth-tier chip.

Because its performance wasn’t that good, China could confidently block imports of the H20. With that level of performance, they can come up with something comparable using Chinese chips.

In particular, while the U.S. political establishment was arguing back and forth over exports of the H20 to China, its relative performance was only getting worse (in other words, AI chips with better performance than the H20 kept coming out).

But the H200 is a different story. It is more powerful than any existing Chinese chip and has a level of performance China would clearly covet.

Even if there is opposition within U.S. political circles to exporting it to China, the Chinese leadership will welcome imports of the H200.

2. Perceptions within the Trump administration

Trump has said before that Blackwell would be monopolized by the United States.

There was also a media report saying that for the B30A, exports to China would be allowed around the time Rubin ramps up.

In light of this, here’s how I interpret this latest Reuters report about allowing exports of the H200.

Now that Blackwell has begun to be deployed in the United States, members of the Trump administration seem to be thinking: since Blackwell is rolling out domestically, it should be fine to export Hopper to China as well.

The idea is that although the H200 is powerful, the most powerful chips are still owned by the United States, so the U.S. continues to hold the upper hand in computing power.

Expected beneficiary companies

• Amkor, which was packaging the H20

• Samsung Electronics, which is strong in legacy HBM

• TSMC


Samsung Electronics, which is strong in legacy HBM


Citi's analyst emphasized that 'in an industry where unit growth typically averages around 50% from peak to peak, the current 11% shortfall in shipments gives us confidence that there is still substantial upside left in this cycle.'

Summary: Shares Citi's bullish semi cycle call: 16% revenue growth to $731B in 2025, shipments 11% below peak, ample upside; NVDA named as key driver.

Global semiconductor sector proxied by SMH ETF

Citi: The Semiconductor Cycle Still Has Significant Upside Potential 🧵/1

Citi analyst Christopher Danely expects global semiconductor sales to rise 16% in 2025 to reach an all-time high of $731 billion. However, he emphasized that this revenue growth is entirely driven by pricing, while shipment volumes remain well below previous peaks.
This indicates that inventory levels are low and the industry still has substantial room for further growth.

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According to Citi’s data, the current semiconductor industry’s revenue growth has been primarily driven by the surge in logic chip prices.

Citi noted that the average selling price (ASP) of logic computing chips (including AI accelerators) has risen 24% over the past three years, far exceeding the 2% growth rate of the previous decade. The share of logic computing chips in total semiconductor sales has also climbed from 27% in 2020 to 39% in 2025. 🧵/2

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Within this segment, logic computing revenue is expanding rapidly at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53%, rising from about $29.6 billion in 2022 to approximately $106.4 billion in 2025, with its share of total semiconductor sales jumping from 5% to 15%. 🧵/3

The average selling price of logic computing chips is expected to soar from $7.80–$8.50 during 2018–2022 to $26.40 in 2025, representing a 47% compound annual growth rate.

Citi identified NVIDIA’s rapid data center expansion as the key driver behind this transformation. The company’s data center business share of logic chip sales has surged from less than 10% in 2021 to 66% in 2025, while its share of total semiconductor sales has also increased from less than 3% in 2021 to 24% in 2025.

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Shipments Still Below Peak Levels, Inventories Remain Low 🧵/4

While semiconductor revenue has reached a record high, Citi’s analysis indicates that shipment volumes still have significant room for growth.

Currently, total semiconductor shipments are about 11% below their previous peak, and in the current upcycle have increased only 18%, far short of the historical average growth rate of 60%.

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By product category: 🧵/N

- Microcontroller (MCU) shipments are 27% below their 2021 peak,
- Logic computing chips are 15% lower,
- Microprocessors are 12% lower.

Citi interprets this gap between current and peak shipment levels as a sign that supply chain inventories remain lean, leaving ample room for further growth in the future.

Citi’s analyst emphasized that “in an industry where unit growth typically averages around 50% from peak to peak, the current 11% shortfall in shipments gives us confidence that there is still substantial upside left in this cycle.”


Citi identified NVIDIA's rapid data center expansion as the key driver behind this transformation


I've been telling people to buy Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron all together

Summary: Buy all three memory players — Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron — as every company benefits in a memory supercycle.

@MMehri54 Why did you sell? It’s true that Micron is lagging behind in HBM4,
but that doesn’t mean Micron won’t make money.

In a memory supercycle, every company benefits.

I’ve been telling people to buy Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron all together.

@Jukanlosreve Hi, are you 100% convinced that Micron is behind in HBM4? I've sold 70% of my MU holding at open then prices surged 5% yesterday 😒


Summary: Bullish Samsung; hoping US export restriction lift on Korean HBM to China catalyzes the stock.

@stevehou I really hope Trump lifts the restrictions on exporting Korean HBM to China.
Please put a rocket under my Samsung stocks, Trump! 🚀

I think the US-China trade deal increasingly looks like a win-win. Everybody won. Congrats to all!


Summary: Relays bullish analyst/bank forecasts: DRAM shortage inevitable over 1-2 years, Samsung+Hynix combined OP up 64% YoY; memory market entering once-in-a-decade boom.

Prolonged DRAM Shortage Forecast… Surge in ‘Pre-Order’ Requests to Samsung and SK Hynix

Demand for memory semiconductors required for artificial-intelligence (AI) infrastructure is soaring, and as data generated by AI agents such as OpenAI and Gemini explodes, demand is surging not only for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) but also for commodity DRAM. Consequently, some large overseas electronics and server companies are rushing to hoard memory inventory—requesting long-term supply contracts with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

According to industry sources on the 23rd, amid growing concerns about a DRAM shortage, a number of electronics, IT, and data-center companies in the U.S. and China are signing medium- to long-term DRAM supply contracts with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, typically spanning two to three years. Ordinarily, electronics manufacturers and server vendors sign DRAM supply agreements lasting only a quarter to a year in order to maintain inventory flexibility, but with forecasts pointing to a prolonged shortage of commodity DRAM, buyers are now moving to secure inventory well in excess of normal levels.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—together controlling more than 70 percent of the global commodity-DRAM market—are currently focusing their fabrication investments on HBM. On the supply side, this inevitably reduces production capacity for standard DRAM. An industry insider explained, “If we assume one DRAM wafer yields 100 conventional DRAM chips, HBM would yield roughly half that amount. Because HBM now occupies a greater share of DRAM production lines, the shipment volume of general-purpose DRAM is likely to remain constrained.”

With both companies prioritizing higher-margin HBM, analysts say expansion of commodity-DRAM output will remain difficult for the time being.  Ryu Hyung-keun, analyst at Daishin Securities, noted, “Concerns over DRAM supply shortages are spurring pre-emptive buying sentiment among customers, and some server clients are already negotiating supply volumes extending beyond 2027.”  Citigroup likewise assessed that “given these dynamics, DRAM supply growth over the next one to two years will be limited, making a severe shortage inevitable.”

According to market-research firm DRAMeXchange, spot prices for 8 Gb DDR4 DRAM—the benchmark commodity product—stood at US $7.30 yesterday.  It is the first time DRAM spot prices have surpassed $7 since October 2018 ($7.042), when the previous memory-super-cycle ended.  Considering prices were just $2 in April, this represents a 265 percent surge in barely six months.

Foreign investment banks are also saying the memory-semiconductor market has entered a “once-in-a-decade boom.”  UBS recently raised its forecast for fourth-quarter DRAM contract-price growth from 5 percent quarter-on-quarter to 17 percent, citing the sharp increase in AI-server demand.  “The memory market is set to experience a ten-year-high boom by 2026,” UBS predicted.

As rising memory prices feed directly into stronger earnings, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to post soaring profits.  Kim Dong-won, analyst at KB Securities, estimated, “The combined operating profit of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix next year will climb 64 percent year-on-year to ₩128 trillion.  With demand from AI data centers and general-server replacement cycles occurring simultaneously, a prolonged supply shortage and sustained price increases are unavoidable, while any near-term capacity expansion in memory remains virtually impossible.”

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https://t.co/tCz0OycLYn


Summary: Bullish Korean memory sector; endorses Morgan's raised price targets as confirmation of an incoming memory boom.

Korea memory sector: SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics

Morgan, who once warned that “winter is coming” for memory, has finally raised the target prices of all the Korean memory makers!!

The memory boom is coming. https://t.co/iAGhIYelnl


starting by offering back-end advanced packaging services is not a bad way to break into the AI chip supply chain... If Intel fails to seize this opportunity to win some projects and gain experience, the business for this type of advanced-packaging alternative will end up being carved up directly by traditional OSAT providers

Summary: Bullish INTC: EMIB attracting Marvell, MediaTek, Apple, Qualcomm as CoWoS alternative, opening a new revenue stream in AI chip back-end packaging.

Intel’s EMIB Becomes an Alternative to TSMC’s CoWoS? Rumors Say Marvell and MediaTek Are Eager to Try

Recently, as TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging capacity has become extremely tight, only a handful of leading AI chip makers have the ability to “lock in capacity” on a large scale, while other specialty chip (ASIC) and second-tier AI chip vendors are finding it difficult to secure sufficient CoWoS capacity support. Notably, there have been a steady stream of market rumors that Intel’s EMIB advanced packaging process has become one of the options under consideration for chip companies. Within the semiconductor industry, it is widely rumored that networking chip giant Marvell, and even MediaTek, are actively looking to try it, and that there could even be a new business model where “front-end wafer fabrication is done at TSMC, and back-end is handed over to Intel.”

Intel’s Advanced Packaging Capabilities Are Solid, EMIB Is Attractive

According to industry sources, Intel’s EMIB technology itself is relatively affordable and also performs well in terms of heat dissipation. For products whose technical specifications are not so demanding, it can indeed provide sufficient support. It is rumored that some ASIC vendors, such as Marvell and MediaTek, have already tried adopting EMIB as a process option in order to offer lower-cost solutions for their customers to consider. There is also word that EMIB already has confirmed adopters that are “non-Intel” customers.

In fact, the tightness in CoWoS capacity is not a recent development; it has persisted for some time. However, as investment in and demand for cloud AI chips continue to surge across the market, both TSMC and the test and packaging supply chain that works with its CoWoS process are operating at full capacity and rushing to fulfill orders.

This is evident from the fact that TSMC’s high-performance computing (HPC)-related revenue showed virtually no quarter-on-quarter growth last quarter, indicating that existing capacity is already fully utilized. What troubles the market even more is that an increasing number of U.S. customers now have requirements for domestic U.S. production. Although TSMC’s front-end wafer foundry processes in the U.S. are gradually coming online, all back-end processing still has to be shipped back to Taiwan, which makes it impossible to fully satisfy customers’ local-manufacturing requirements.

Both the shortage of capacity and the gap in U.S. domestic manufacturing have turned Intel’s EMIB into an alternative option worth considering.

Apple and Qualcomm Are Also Moving; Intel’s 2.5D/3D Advanced Packaging Are Both on the Table

Both Apple and Qualcomm have recently, and rather quietly, added “familiarity with EMIB technology” as a requirement in their job postings.

According to players in the semiconductor supply chain, given Apple’s and Qualcomm’s technical requirements for cloud AI chips, one is likely to focus on its own cloud ASIC, while the other is targeting Tier-2 AI accelerator card products. In these cases, CoWoS is not necessarily required, and the more cost-effective EMIB may even deliver better overall benefits. For other ASIC projects aimed at inference applications with relatively lower compute requirements, EMIB can indeed provide adequate support as well.

Although some in the semiconductor industry view EMIB as a way for Intel to mask its shortcomings in wafer-level circuit design by shifting part of the compute burden onto the substrate, EMIB is in fact a relatively mature technology with a solid track record. It is indeed capable of supporting certain urgent Tier-2 projects that need to go from design to mass production within a short timeframe.

In today’s environment, where ASICs and second-tier AI compute chips place increasing emphasis on price-performance, EMIB does offer certain advantages. People familiar with IC design say that the number of companies working with Intel to conduct cooperative testing on EMIB is on the rise. While shipment volumes may not be large in the short term, over the longer run, if the results of these collaborations are good, Intel’s 2.5D EMIB, or even its 3D Foveros packaging process, could have opportunities to secure a steady stream of orders.

Front-End Wafers at TSMC, Back-End with Intel: Not a Mission Impossible

Supply-chain sources stress that the approach currently being discussed in the market involves integrating TSMC’s front-end wafer foundry processes with Intel’s EMIB back-end process. Bringing the two together into a seamless flow will indeed take some careful effort.

However, for Intel, given that its wafer foundry services are not yet able to convince these leading companies, starting by offering back-end advanced packaging services is not a bad way to break into the AI chip supply chain.

After all, the current window in which CoWoS capacity is in short supply may only be temporary. If Intel fails to seize this opportunity to win some projects and gain experience, the business for this type of advanced-packaging alternative will end up being carved up directly by traditional OSAT providers such as Amkor, ASE Technology Holding, and SPIL.

MediaTek’s spokesperson system indicated that it will not make any public comments regarding the technical details of its ASIC-related business.

$INTC $TSM

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https://t.co/h2ERFnrmOl


the shortage of DDR5, DDR4, and DDR3 is expected to persist until 2027. This quarter, the company's DRAM revenue, shipments, and prices are all expected to grow significantly, with active customer demand and long-term contract inquiries. Stable growth is also anticipated to continue through 2026

Summary: Winbond bullish: DRAM shortage persists to 2027, revenue/shipments/prices to grow significantly this quarter and through 2026.

Winbond Electronics listed on TWSE as 2344.TW

• Winbond Electronics: The memory semiconductor industry is undergoing a structural transformation, and the shortage of DDR5, DDR4, and DDR3 is expected to persist until 2027. This quarter, the company’s DRAM revenue, shipments, and prices are all expected to grow significantly, with active customer demand and long-term contract inquiries. Stable growth is also anticipated to continue through 2026.

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https://t.co/B9S6QG7795


SK Hynix: Even under conservative assumptions, the HBM market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of more than 30% over the next five years. Bullish 🔥

Summary: Bullish SK Hynix on 30%+ annual HBM market growth over next five years under conservative assumptions.

SK hynix 3Q25 Earnings Call – Key Q&A (5)

⸻

9. Possibility of early shipments or preparations related to M15X and the Yongin fab (May 2027)

•    Regarding new fab preparation plans: To meet the substantial wafer capacity requirements driven by HBM demand, we began


this move is essentially equivalent to Intel poaching TSMC's N2 process know-how, and expectations within Intel are said to be very high

Summary: Bullish INTC: hiring TSMC's N2 strategy SVP seen as poaching key process know-how with high internal expectations.

Sources say that Wei-Jen Lo, former Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy Development at TSMC, has joined Intel.

According to the sources, this move is essentially equivalent to Intel poaching TSMC’s N2 process know-how, and expectations within Intel are said to be very high.

Source: Own

$INTC

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Related: https://t.co/wousOJttLV


Current market consensus estimates $60 billion in 2027 AI revenue, suggesting 50–70% upside potential. Including Google's TPU revenue (~$20 billion), total AI revenue in 2027 could approach $100 billion.

Summary: JPM analysis: AVGO, NVDA, AMD all have significant 2026–2028 earnings upside on AI accelerator demand; AVGO 50–70% consensus upside, NVDA and AMD estimates likely revised higher.

AI Accelerator Market Revenue per GW – Growth Potential of AVGO, NVDA, and AMD (JPM)

⸻

1. Overall Market Outlook
    • With the recent expansion of large-scale AI compute capacity contracts, interest in the AI revenue potential of NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD, and Broadcom (AVGO) has surged.
    • JP Morgan estimates GPU/XPU-based data center revenue on a per-gigawatt (GW) basis to project the upside potential of AI-related revenues over the next 3–4 years.
    • The AI accelerator market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 40–50%, gradually diversifying from GPU-centric to XPU (custom AI SoC)-based architectures.
    • Although conservative risks remain (e.g., funding, competition, and execution), the ramp-up of large customer contracts (e.g., OpenAI, Google) could drive further upward revisions.

⸻

2. Broadcom
    • A 10GW custom AI silicon and rack system supply contract with OAI will significantly accelerate Broadcom’s AI revenue structure.
    • The price of XPU systems is about 30% lower than GPUs, but efficiency is 30% higher, leading to roughly $27 billion per GW of revenue.
    • Based on Ironwood TPU v6p (3nm, Google reference), the result is consistent at approximately $28 billion per GW.
    • Including networking (30%) and rack components (30%), total revenue per GW is around $28 billion.
    • If the 10GW contract is deployed over the next 3–4 years, it implies $70–90 billion in annual revenue potential between 2027–2029.
    • Current market consensus estimates $60 billion in 2027 AI revenue, suggesting 50–70% upside potential.
    • Including Google’s TPU revenue (~$20 billion), total AI revenue in 2027 could approach $100 billion.

⸻

3. NVIDIA
    • Management has indicated that 1GW of AI data center capacity represents a $35–40 billion revenue opportunity, roughly 60% of total data center CapEx.
    • Blackwell (BW) and Blackwell Ultra (BWU) are estimated at $27–29 billion per GW, while Rubin (R) and Rubin Ultra (RU) are projected at $30–35 billion per GW.
    • Rack power density is expected to jump from 120kW (BW) to 1.1MW (RU) — about 9x higher. Although GPU count per rack decreases, ASP per GPU triples.
    • GPU revenue per unit rises from approximately $52,000 (BW) to $300,000 (RU).
    • The market currently assumes 10GW of AI data center capacity by 2027, but actual deployments could exceed that due to multiple large-scale projects.
    • Consequently, AI revenue estimates for the next 2–3 years are likely to be revised upward.

4. AMD
    • The OpenAI contract is explicitly described as being worth several billion dollars, implying at least $20 billion per GW.
    • The Helios platform is assumed to be priced about 20% lower than NVIDIA’s Rubin, with networking contributing roughly 5% of total revenue.
    • Accordingly, the MI450 (Helios) system is estimated at $20 billion per GW, and the next-generation MI500 could exceed $25 billion per GW.
    • If OpenAI’s 6GW deployment plan is fully realized, it represents $30–35 billion in annual revenue potential.
    • The market currently assumes $31 billion in 2027 data center GPU revenue, suggesting room for upward revision.

5. Comparative Summary

AVGO: approximately $28 billion per GW
NVDA: approximately $35 billion per GW (Rubin Ultra basis)
AMD: approximately $20 billion per GW (Helios basis)

Broadcom benefits from a broader scope including networking and rack components. NVIDIA’s growth is driven by rising GPU profitability per unit. AMD targets market share gains through aggressive pricing and major customer wins.

6. Investment View
    • All three companies have significant earnings upside potential for 2026–2028, driven by accelerating AI demand.
    • NVIDIA leads in high-performance platforms, Broadcom in XPU and networking integration, and AMD in Helios-based large customer expansion.
    • If long-term AI infrastructure CapEx continues to grow, all three are positioned for sustained re-rating and valuation expansion.


AI revenue estimates for the next 2–3 years are likely to be revised upward


The market currently assumes $31 billion in 2027 data center GPU revenue, suggesting room for upward revision


Summary: Samsung seen gaining HBM market share and margins in 2026 as Google's primary HBM supplier; SK Hynix growth constrained by Nvidia concentration and limited Google volume upside.

[Exclusive] Samsung Succeeded in Turnaround... Supplied 'Over 60%' of HBM for Google

It has been confirmed that Samsung Electronics supplied "more than 60%" of the total High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) volume for Google through Broadcom this year. This is analyzed to be the result of boosting HBM3E (5th generation HBM) performance through the redesign of DRAM used in HBM and increasing supply volumes to key customers. Google develops its own AI accelerator called the TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) through Broadcom, which specializes in custom semiconductor design for clients.

Regarding "HBM4" (6th generation HBM), the next-generation HBM for which the market opens next year, Samsung Electronics is reportedly expecting quality certification results from major customers as early as the beginning of this month. In the semiconductor industry, there is an analysis that "Samsung has resolved the gap with competitors, and its market share and margins will improve next year."

Google HBM 'Primary Supplier' is Samsung
According to the semiconductor industry on the 1st, it was confirmed that Samsung Electronics accounted for more than 60% of the HBM volume supplied to Google through Broadcom so far this year. Although SK Hynix had a higher share of Broadcom/Google HBM in the first half of the year, it is known that Samsung Electronics succeeded in a "reversal" on an annual basis by increasing supply in the second half. Google, recently in the spotlight for its TPUs, develops semiconductors through Broadcom, a company specializing in custom semiconductors (ASICs). Broadcom also handles HBM procurement for TPUs.

Samsung Electronics' expansion of HBM supply to major customers is also confirmed in export data. According to alternative data platform Aicel, the cumulative export amount of complex structure chip integrated circuits (including HBM) from Asan, Chungnam, where Samsung Electronics' HBM packaging line is located, from July to October this year was $8.2 billion (approximately 12 trillion won), a 19.2% increase compared to the same period last year ($6.9 billion).

The reason Samsung was able to increase supply to Broadcom/Google in the second half of this year is thanks to resolving heat issues through the redesign of 1a DRAM. The turning point was initiated by Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun, who took office as the head of the Samsung Electronics Device Solutions (DS) Division in May last year. He ordered the redesign of 1a DRAM for HBM3E early this year, and the HBM development team, working with a "do-or-die" determination, solved the heat generation problem. A semiconductor industry official predicted, "Although they passed Nvidia's HBM3E quality test in late September, Samsung Electronics' strategic customer was Broadcom," adding, "Next year as well, Samsung Electronics will play the role of Google's 'primary supplier' through HBM delivery to Broadcom."

Samsung Electronics, HBM4 Quality Certification Early This Month
Competition between Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix for HBM4 delivery is also igniting.

Samsung Electronics was the first to achieve an operating speed of over 11 gigabits (Gb) per second through a winning move of developing and producing logic dies utilizing 10-nanometer (nm) 6th generation (1c) DRAM as the base die and a 4nm foundry process. At the "International Solid-State Circuits Conference (ISSCC) 2026" held on the 26th of last month, it unveiled HBM4 equipped with 36 gigabytes (GB) of capacity and a bandwidth (data processing capability) of 3.3 terabytes (TB) per second.

Samsung Electronics is currently sending HBM4 samples to major customers such as Nvidia and undergoing quality tests. Observations inside and outside Samsung suggest that they will receive "positive results" early this month. It is known that Samsung Electronics has established a "mass production system" to increase supply volume as soon as it receives HBM4 quality certification. A semiconductor industry official explained, "Samsung has virtually resolved the technology gap in HBM, and we expect improvements in market share and margins next year," adding, "The proportion of HBM in total DRAM (based on bits) is about 15%, so there is significant room for expansion."

SK Hynix, Dismisses HBM4 Redesign Rumors
SK Hynix, the No. 1 HBM company, recently faced difficulties due to rumors that "Nvidia requested a redesign of HBM4." SK Hynix plans to produce HBM4 through 10nm 5th generation (1b) DRAM and TSMC's 12nm foundry process. At a recent IR event held by a foreign securities firm, SK Hynix stated regarding the HBM4 redesign rumors, "As we mentioned in the third-quarter conference call, both price and volume for next year have been finalized," and clarified, "There are no issues regarding yield, redesign, or certification delays."

They also expressed confidence regarding the supply of large-scale HBM4 volumes to major customers. SK Hynix emphasized, "We will begin full-scale wafer input in the fourth quarter of this year," and "Meaningful production volume will emerge starting from the end of the second quarter of 2026."

SK Hynix's main target is Nvidia, the world's No. 1 AI accelerator company. The prevailing analysis is that SK Hynix is highly likely to play the role of "primary supplier" for HBM4 as well, based on its long-standing cooperative relationship with Nvidia.

Regarding HBM delivery for Google, they indicated that "it is not easy to increase volume in the short term." It is known that SK Hynix's sales proportion for customers other than Nvidia, such as Google, is around 30%. SK Hynix stated, "The major source of demand for HBM4 in 2026 is the main customer," and "There is no significant change in the proportion of customers in 2026."

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https://t.co/BcCTujAeCf


SK Hynix's sales proportion for customers other than Nvidia, such as Google, is around 30%... There is no significant change in the proportion of customers in 2026


Summary: Citi raises SK Hynix TP to W830k on multi-year demand visibility, structural memory upcycle, and sharply raised DRAM/NAND ASP forecasts for 2026.

251124_Multi-year Demand Visibility Supports Structural Growth Outlook; Raise TP to W830k – CITI

[Key Takeaways]

(1) Multi-year demand visibility supports SK Hynix’s structural growth. TP raised from 770,000 won → 830,000 won.

(2) Despite extremely strong demand for server DRAM and eSSD for AI inference, the memory market’s supply shortage is expected to deepen as suppliers focus CAPA expansion almost entirely on HBM.

(3) Global DRAM/NAND ASP growth forecasts are raised from YoY +37%/+39% to +53%/+44%. As a result, SK Hynix’s 2026 OP is revised up by +12%.

⸻

[Contents]

(1) We expect that in 1H26, global commodity memory supply will fall short of total demand based on *FPO, and will be able to meet only about 60% of total demand.
*Firm Purchase Order

(2) The remaining 40% of customers will not receive supply, and we believe they will move to secure memory chips—paying higher premiums if necessary—to avoid supply disruptions.

(3) Moreover, since next year’s capacity additions are almost entirely focused on HBM, global DRAM ASP in 2026 is expected to increase YoY +53% [previous +37%], and NAND ASP to increase YoY +44% [previous +39%].

(4) As highlighted at Citi Korea Corporate Day, we believe SK Hynix’s demand visibility has expanded to as much as 2–3 years, compared to the 2017–18 memory upcycle.

(5) Even for commodity DRAM, major customers have already been allocated CAPA based on FPOs, and some customers have even communicated purchase intentions for 2028 volumes in advance.

(6) With server DRAM/HBM accounting for 80% as of end-3Q25, the volatility that used to arise from consumer-facing memory has also been significantly reduced.

(7) We believe the memory market has entered the early stage of a structural upcycle driven by the explosive increase in data/tokens generated by AI inference demand.

(8) Reflecting our DRAM/NAND outlook, we revise up SK Hynix’s OP forecast by +12%, and apply 3.3x to 2026(F) BVPS, raising our TP to 830,000 won.


global DRAM ASP in 2026 is expected to increase YoY +53%

Global DRAM basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix


Global NAND sector basket: dominant NAND producers


Summary: Goldman sees DRAM/HBM demand significantly outpacing supply through 2026, with conventional DRAM prices potentially rising double-digits QoQ every quarter and HBM margins expanding.

DRAM sector basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix

Goldman Sachs DRAM Commentary: Supply Growth Modest, Demand Continues to Significantly Outpace Supply

Demand for both High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and conventional DRAM continues to outstrip supply. Overall, full-year 2026 HBM volume and pricing negotiations for most DRAM suppliers appear to be effectively concluded. HBM4 shipments are projected to commence in 2Q26, with a meaningful ramp-up expected in the second half of the year. Due to anticipated price declines in HBM3E, the blended HBM ASP (inclusive of HBM3 and HBM4) is expected to dip in 1H26 before rebounding in 2H26. Most suppliers anticipate continued margin expansion throughout 2026.

Broadly, industry-wide capacity expansion remains constrained by a shortage of available cleanroom space. Suppliers are focused on bringing in Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) as quickly as possible to fabs (such as SK Hynix’s M15X) to boost HBM production. At this stage, there appear to be no plans among vendors to convert HBM production lines to conventional DRAM or to repurpose NAND lines for DRAM.

Conventional DRAM supply-demand dynamics appear even tighter, particularly in the near term. Volume forecasts for conventional DRAM continue to be provided by customers, while pricing negotiations remain on a quarterly basis. Given current demand levels and persistent supply-demand imbalances, some suppliers see potential for conventional DRAM prices to rise by double-digit percentages (%) quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) throughout every quarter of 2026.


Suppliers are focused on bringing in Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) as quickly as possible to fabs (such as SK Hynix's M15X) to boost HBM production


Most suppliers anticipate continued margin expansion throughout 2026

HBM sector basket: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron


Summary: Shares Nomura bullish call on Samsung and SK Hynix; raises 2026F OP forecasts on stronger DRAM/NAND price outlook.

Nomura: For Samsung Electronics, we expect the outperformance versus our prior forecasts to continue from 4Q25F onward, and we therefore raise our 2026F operating profit (OP) forecast to KRW133.4tn. In 2026F, we forecast Samsung’s DRAM and NAND prices to rise 68% y-y (commodity DRAM +81% y-y) and 73% y-y, respectively.

Nomura: For SK hynix, as we expect commodity prices to beat our previous estimates from 4Q25F onward, we also raise our 2026F OP forecast by 9.7% to KRW109tn. In 2026F, we expect SK hynix’s average DRAM/NAND prices to increase 46.7%/70.6% y-y (commodity DRAM +81% y-y).

Nomura Global memory: Stronger memory prices drive up earnings

Revising up earnings for 4Q25F and beyond, reflecting a stronger commodity memory price outlook
We remain the most bullish in our earnings outlook for memory companies on the Street – since our report on memory


we also raise our 2026F OP forecast by 9.7% to KRW109tn


Summary: Shares bullish CoWoS capacity upgrade thesis; positive view on KYEC, ASE, Marketech unchanged; $TSM tagged as beneficiary of CoWoS ramp.

King Yuan Electronics (KYEC) 2449.TW Taiwan

CoWoS: U.S. brokers raise capacity forecast

A major U.S. securities house has revised up its forecast for next year’s CoWoS production capacity growth by 20–30%. In other words, it has raised its estimate from 100,000 wafers per month to at least 120,000–130,000 wafers per month. The new capacity will be added to the AP8 fab’s P1 and P2 lines, and the exact timing will depend on the progress of plant construction and equipment installation.

The positive view on the Taiwanese companies under its coverage — King Yuan Electronics (KYEC), ASE, and Marketech — remains unchanged.

$TSM

早安！11/18 外電綜合整理

- 記憶體產業: 美系再升目標
*升目標：南亞科、華邦電、力積電、旺宏
美系大行觀察DDR4 的重要性仍被低估，因eSSD 和部分 HDD 也需要 DDR4 做為快取記憶體。DDR4 16Gb 在通路端已幾乎沒有庫存情況下，券商預期明年合約價與現貨價都有更大上行空間，尤其在1Q26。


ASE Technology Holding Taiwan listing 3711.TW


Marketech International 6196.TW Taiwan semiconductor equip


A major U.S. securities house has revised up its forecast for next year's CoWoS production capacity growth by 20–30%


Samsung Electronics has received positive signals during the 6th generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) verification process currently underway with Nvidia... the signing of a supply contract is imminent

Summary: Samsung received positive HBM4 qualification feedback from Nvidia with supply contract imminent, signaling recovery in HBM competitive position.

[Exclusive] Samsung HBM4 Receives "Good News" Rating from Nvidia... Supply Deal Imminent

It has been confirmed that Samsung Electronics has received positive signals during the 6th generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) verification process currently underway with Nvidia. The likelihood of Samsung and Nvidia proceeding with an HBM4 supply contract in the near future has also increased.
According to industry sources on the 10th, Samsung Electronics is currently conducting HBM4 qualification tests (qual tests) with Nvidia. It is reported that Nvidia recently provided feedback regarding Samsung's HBM4 performance, stating that "there will be good news."

The industry interprets this as a positive assessment of the qualification test results and forecasts that the signing of a supply contract is imminent.
Typically, Nvidia is known not to notify vendors of pass/fail results based on specific performance indicators or evaluation items. Instead, once a certain level of performance is secured, they deliver positive feedback and naturally transition to the contract stage. This is why the mention of "good news" is being interpreted as a sign that the process has entered the steps toward a formal contract.

Samsung recently initiated internal Production Readiness Approval (PRA) procedures and has already completed preparations for mass production. Industry observers are lending weight to the view that, given PRA is typically the stage immediately preceding actual mass production, virtually only the supply contract remains for Samsung's HBM4.
Samsung was evaluated as having a weakened presence after falling behind SK Hynix in the HBM3E competition last year. However, it is understood that by improving completeness using 1c-based DRAM and utilizing the 4-nanometer (nm) foundry process to enhance the performance of the logic die (the component acting as the brain), they have boosted operating speeds to over 11 gigabits per second (Gbps).

---

https://t.co/Fop4lMWyU5


Summary: Bullish SEMCO as biggest beneficiary of T-glass shortage; secured inventory early, added 4 new customers, full utilization through 2027, valuation re-rating accelerating.

▶ Acceleration of T-Glass Shortage and Its Future Impact (ft. Samsung Electro-Mechanics)

[Yang Seung-soo, Meritz Securities / Electronics & IT Components]

[T-Glass Shortage Accelerating]

• T-glass is a key material that lowers the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and prevents warpage of substrates.

• Recently, the T-glass shortage has intensified, and the impact of this supply shortage is spreading across the entire ABF/BT substrate industry.

• There are two main reasons why the T-glass shortage is accelerating.

1. Japan’s Nittobo continued to expand capacity conservatively without fully anticipating the surge in AI demand.

• Although Nittobo has recently announced aggressive T-glass capacity expansion plans, it takes time to expand furnaces, so the actual increase in supply is expected to materialize only from 2027.

• Competitors are also successively launching low-CTE glass fiber products, but there are differences in quality and capacity. Recently, as Nittobo has reallocated internal production capacity toward T-glass, tight supply-demand conditions have been spreading to other glass fiber products as well.

•  2. Nvidia has secured volumes in advance by entering into a mid- to long-term binding contract with Nittobo.

• As a result, it has become even more difficult for other customers to secure Nittobo’s T-glass, and this tight supply-demand situation has recently begun to spread even to general IT set customers such as Apple.

[Future Price Increases and Vendor Diversification Expected]

• Substrate makers are now actively moving to improve profitability in specific product groups by taking advantage of the current T-glass shortage phase.

• So far, ABF/BT price hikes have been applied mainly to relatively smaller customers (i.e., non-Nvidia/Apple) or memory customers, largely reflecting the rise in raw material (copper, gold) and BT CCL prices.

• However, as the supply shortage is expected to deepen further going forward, the likelihood of price hikes being passed on to major customers is also gradually increasing.

• In fact, Nittobo hinted at the possibility of raising prices even for existing customers (Nvidia and Apple) in its recent earnings announcement.

• In particular for ABF, as the production difficulty of AI ABF substrates rises and volumes expand, continuous price hikes that reflect both the T-glass shortage and higher raw material costs are expected to persist over the next several quarters.

• Based on the tight T-glass inventory situation, moves to diversify the supply chain in AI ABF substrates are also expanding.

• As production bottlenecks are worsening for AI ABF substrates due to higher manufacturing complexity, some players that secured T-glass in advance have succeeded in winning multiple new customers and are actively leveraging their supplier advantage.

[Implications for Domestic ABF Substrate Makers]

• According to our channel checks, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO) is emerging as the biggest beneficiary of the T-glass shortage.

• The key factor is that among companies with the technological capability to supply AI ABF substrates, Samsung Electro-Mechanics was one of the first to successfully secure T-glass inventory.

• On this basis, it has added four new customers, including North American GPU and CPU customers, in addition to its existing ASIC customers, and is expected to operate at effectively full utilization through 2027.

• In the past, the ABF substrate business was centered on mass-producing identical products according to the roadmap of the leading player, Intel. With AI, however, it is shifting to a customized business that tailors specifications to each customer.

• As a result, separate design and verification processes are required for each product, which has a capacity-diluting effect. In addition, since these substrates are fundamentally used in CoWoS packaging, larger panel sizes and higher layer counts are required, causing yield declines and making supply even tighter.

• Consequently, the supply-demand imbalance for AI ABF substrates is worsening, and the degree of benefit accruing to the small group of players participating in this market, including Samsung Electro-Mechanics, is expected to increase further.

• We believe Samsung Electro-Mechanics has entered a phase where valuation re-rating driven by ABF substrate growth is set to accelerate in earnest, and we maintain our existing view that its investment attractiveness is high within our large-cap IT hardware coverage.


Summary: Raises INTC TP $50→$54 on 14A customer wins (Apple, NVDA, AMD), EMIB AI accelerator pipeline, and IFS GM turnaround; endorses Buy on AAPL, NVDA, AMD, MediaTek, TSMC.

GFHK) Intel-related update (18A yield, 14A external customer wins, and EMIB developments)

More to come, raise TP to $54: On Nov 28, Intel share price was up 10% owing to news of order win for Apple’s M-series in 2027. We’ve highlighted the potential order win of M-series in our earlier Intel report (Belief in the Story Takes Hold on Oct 24) and indeed, the progress is earlier than expected. We expect more to come and now expect the upcoming win in Apple (AAPL Buy) non-pro smartphone SoC based on Intel 14A for 2028; coupled with the likely engagement with Nvidia (NVDA Buy) and AMD (Buy)’s server SKUs, we believe its 14A will be a strong node. For back-end, we expect Intel to benefit from the CoWoS undersupply and potential “Made in USA” trend. As highlighted in our MediaTek (2454 TT Buy) Upgrade report on Nov 28, we expect TPU v8e to adopt EMIB, and we also expect Apple to be an important customer. Near term, despite memory concerns, server CPU sales are expected to accelerate due to increasing general purpose compute. In all, we believe the recent developments bode well for IFS in the longer term. We raise TP from $50 to $54, now based on 2x FY27E BVPS, reflecting the better visibility of earnings improvement trajectory.

18A the key to build customers’ confidence: According to Intel, Panther Lake is on track to enter HVM and debut on Jan 5 at CES 2026. We believe the yield rate has reached 60-65% in November and targets 70% by end-2025. We also expect the entry-level Wildcat Lake to start HVM in 1Q26, with much higher yield rates due to smaller die area.

Robust IFS customer pipeline with top-tier U.S. fabless: We still expect Intel to ramp 18A and 18A-P at small scale in 2026 to ensure yield and quality. That said, the external customer is expected to start by end-2026. In addition to the aforementioned Apple M-series on 18A-P in 2027, we expect 14A to be driven by the potential wins for: 1) Apple’s non-pro smartphone SoC in 2028 (we expect firm visibility by end of 2025); 2) Nvidia & AMD server projects in 2028; 3) Tier-1 Ethernet switch in 2028. With thoughtful cost/scale management, we expect its IFS GM turnaround by end-2026, followed by a strong ramp of 14A in 2027.

Backend EMIB to win AI accelerators on “TSMC + Intel” model: We believe that EMIB emerges as an alternative to CoWoS, given the capacity constraints at TSMC (2330 TT Buy), higher design flexibility and larger reticle size (vs. OSAT’s). As said, we expect TPU v8e to adopt EMIB-T in 2027, as Google provides a very aggressive volume in 2027 and 2028. We also see high chance for Intel to win more ASICs, likely Broadcom and Apple’s. Capacity wise, we expect Intel to add equipment order in 1Q26. Aside from current Malaysia factory, it would be making sense for Intel to accelerate in New Mexico Fab to benefit from TSMC’s Arizona. In sum, we estimate its advanced packaging business will contribute >$1bn revenue in 2027E, with growth in the following years through more project wins.

Risks: 1) execution in product & foundry; 2) weak macro; and 3) peer competition.

$INTC


Summary: Shares Goldman NAND bull thesis: supply shortfalls into 2027, QoQ price increases ahead; SanDisk flagged as top upside pick on Google eSSD contract win.

Goldman Sachs NAND Commentary: Supply/Demand Significantly Tightening; Incremental SSD Data Points

NAND supply and demand has tightened significantly over the last two quarters, driven by a combination of production discipline from the supply side—including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and YMTC—and robust demand (from legacy markets such as smartphones and the AI inference sector). We have not heard reports of plans to add new NAND wafer capacity; instead, typical technology migration via upgrades appears to be the consensus plan across suppliers.

Suppliers generally project 2026 NAND bit supply growth to be in the mid-10% range. Bit demand growth has the potential to reach the high-teens to 20% range, primarily driven by data center applications, with recent surges in demand for AI inference and HDD replacement. Consequently, we expect supply shortages to persist for at least the next several quarters, and potentially through 2027. We also anticipate this will lead to sequential (QoQ) pricing increases over the coming quarters, with companies having higher exposure to channel and retail markets relative to fixed contract pricing (including SanDisk) likely realizing greater upside.

Regarding the Enterprise SSD (eSSD) market, hyperscalers and the enterprise sector continue to drive demand. Our partner checks indicate that SanDisk has secured a second hyperscaler contract for eSSD from Google. Volume shipments are scheduled to ramp up in 1H 2026, with the potential to surpass the existing customer (Meta) in terms of volume.

$SNDK

Goldman Sachs DRAM Commentary: Supply Growth Modest, Demand Continues to Significantly Outpace Supply

Demand for both High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and conventional DRAM continues to outstrip supply. Overall, full-year 2026 HBM volume and pricing negotiations for most DRAM https://t.co/crvJQ3GMIO


supply shortages to persist for at least the next several quarters, and potentially through 2027. We also anticipate this will lead to sequential (QoQ) pricing increases over the coming quarters


Nvidia and AMD, armed with huge cash reserves, will continue to push partners to invest in AI capex... The biggest beneficiaries of all this will be the semiconductor supply chain

Summary: Long NVDA and AMD as the primary beneficiaries of GPU capex supercycle as hyperscalers slash headcount to fund AI infrastructure buildout.

Amazon laid off 30,000 employees today, an even larger cut than during the industry contraction in 2022. The reason is simple:

They don’t have enough capex left to buy GPUs.
As a result, AWS growth has slowed, the market has punished them harshly, and now they must cut salaries to save money for GPU purchases—so the financials look better and they can tell a story of “AWS growth bottoming out.”

Every internet company software engineer (SDE) should buy Nvidia/AMD stock as a hedge—compensating for the risk of being squeezed out of the value chain by GPUs.

Entering 2024–2025, the main factor behind weak employment for American SDEs is no longer the massive over-expansion of 2021, nor the competition from lower-wage overseas engineering centers, and not yet the reduced demand caused by AI efficiency gains.

A new boss has arrived: GPU capex.
GPU capex is creating a strange “prosperous depression” inside internet companies:

The company’s revenue growth looks strong, stock prices keep rising—but wage expenses have become immovable constraints for management. Everyone worries about their jobs. Continuous layoffs increase the workload for those who remain. Morale collapses. It feels like the Great Depression all over again.

This isn’t a traditional recession. It’s capital’s radical redistribution between manpower and compute power.

Amazon’s 30,000-person layoff has been rumored for two months. The mid-year performance review, usually in July, was delayed to mid- or late August. The return-to-office (RTO) policy also served as a major excuse for the cuts. The AGI group will remain untouched; PXT, Devices & Services, and Operations will be the hardest hit. By convention, AWS will likely announce its cuts later—probably after AWS re:Invent—to squeeze every bit of output first.

Meanwhile, AWS’s Q2 backlog reached $195 billion, up 25% YoY.

This shows customers want to buy but AWS can’t deliver—demand remains scorching hot, and they simply can’t buy GPUs fast enough.

In an era where AI server supply can’t keep up with explosive demand, shifting opex (wages) to capex directly boosts company performance. Capital will ruthlessly punish any CSP or hyperscaler that fails to fully embrace this path.
Meta has quietly entered a “5% layoff every six months” rhythm. Recently, it cut 600 people in its AI org and also removed many directors across departments—same logic again: AI datacenter capacity is insufficient. In the past year, Meta revised up its 18-month capacity plan three times. Each time they thought they had overestimated demand—only to painfully realize a few months later that they had underestimated it.

Does this mean internet companies no longer need people?

Of course not. But after the hiring budget is slashed, they’re forced to squeeze productivity internally to compensate.

Big tech companies are now pulling every possible lever: building internal tools with agent functions, encouraging “one-click deployment vibes,” setting KPIs for AI usage rates, requiring departments to report AI adoption progress and use cases, and mandating periodic peer learning sessions.

All these frantic moves aim for just one modest goal: ~20% efficiency improvement.
What happens next?

To maintain growth and competitiveness—once efficiency gains plateau and layoffs hit the bone, when opex yields no more savings—the next step will be to sacrifice cash flow. Some, like Oracle, may even take on debt to sustain growth.

Nvidia and AMD, armed with huge cash reserves, will continue to push partners to invest in AI capex—just like OpenAI has done.

The biggest beneficiaries of all this will be the semiconductor supply chain.

A new normal may emerge: semiconductor companies’ profit margins surpass those of internet firms.

But they also bear the greatest risk:

Once VCs or hyperscalers notice token demand slowing—or even just growth decelerating—they’ll ruthlessly cut orders.

The transmission of that shock will be far faster than semiconductor production cycles.
When might that point arrive?

One reference indicator: when enterprise adoption reaches ~50%.
During the March 2000 internet bubble burst, U.S. internet penetration was around 52% (some data say 43%).
Currently, major internet companies’ GenAI daily-user penetration is rising from 50% toward 90%, while overall enterprise AI adoption is still under 10%.

That means growth is safe for now. Historically, the fastest phase of any technological revolution is when corporate adoption moves from 10% to 50%.
The Cisco bubble won’t repeat itself so simply.

This time, information flow is vastly richer. There will always be enough skeptics warning about bubbles—ensuring that when it does burst, it won’t be nearly as catastrophic.

今天Amazon裁员3万人，比2022年行业收缩期裁的还厉害，原因很简单

买GPU的钱capex不够，导致AWS增速下降，被市场严厉的惩罚了，只能砍工资来省钱买GPU，让财报好看一点，营造一个AWS增速触底的故事

每一个互联网公司的SDE打工人，都应该买入Nvidia/amd作为风险对冲，弥补自己被GPU挤出价值链的风险 https://t.co/nAzA2nsAfi


Every internet company software engineer (SDE) should buy Nvidia/AMD stock as a hedge


UBS maintains SK Hynix as its "Key Call Buy", raising the target price from ₩434,000 to ₩516,000

Summary: UBS raises HBM forecasts; Key Call Buy SK Hynix (PT ₩516K), Buy Micron, Neutral Samsung; NVDA GPU volume raised to 7.4M units for 2026.

Raising NVIDIA Purchase Forecasts and Including OpenAI ASIC Model for the First Time — Significant Expansion in HBM Market Size

UBS (N. Gaudois, 251008)

Based on the latest industry research and bottom-up model updates, UBS has raised its forecast for global High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) end-market consumption. HBM shipments are projected to reach 17.1 billion Gb in 2025, up 99% YoY, and further rise to 27.2 billion Gb in 2026, up 59% YoY. Corresponding revenue is expected to reach $33.2 billion in 2025 (+103%) and $54.5 billion in 2026 (+64%), at which point HBM will account for 9% of total DRAM shipments and 29% of DRAM revenue.

At the company level, UBS raised NVIDIA’s 2026 AI GPU purchase volume from 7.0 million to 7.4 million units, reflecting stronger expectations for the Rubin project, and for the first time included OpenAI’s ASIC in its model, estimating initial shipments of 700,000 units in 2026. UBS expects HBM bit demand to maintain around 35% YoY growth in 2027.

UBS noted that OpenAI’s ASIC is expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026, with a significant ramp-up in 2027, adopting an HBM3E 12-Hi packaging configuration. Preliminary estimates suggest that OpenAI could account for about 10% of global HBM bit demand in 2027, comparable to Google. Samsung is expected to be the primary supplier, with SK Hynix as the secondary. As a result, UBS has raised its 2027 DRAM CAPEX forecasts for both Samsung and SK Hynix.

In terms of market share, UBS projects that in the 2026 HBM bit market, SK Hynix will maintain around 51% share, followed by Micron and Samsung at 25% and 24%, respectively.

By customer structure:

    • SK Hynix’s share with NVIDIA, Google, and Amazon is expected to exceed 60%, 67%, and 84%, respectively.
    • Micron’s share with NVIDIA, Meta, and AMD is projected at 24%, 63%, and 34%, respectively.
    • Samsung’s share with NVIDIA, AMD, Google, Amazon, and Meta is estimated at 15%, 66%, 33%, 16%, and 37%, respectively.

In terms of investment recommendations, UBS maintains SK Hynix as its “Key Call Buy”, raising the target price from ₩434,000 to ₩516,000; Micron is also rated Buy; Samsung remains Neutral, with a target price raised from ₩85,000 to ₩93,000.

$NVDA $MU


Samsung remains Neutral, with a target price raised from ₩85,000 to ₩93,000


UBS raised NVIDIA's 2026 AI GPU purchase volume from 7.0 million to 7.4 million units


Broadcom has adopted Intel's EMIB and entered the back-end process of AWS Trainium 3. Also, Broadcom is said to be very active on Trainium 4.

Summary: Broadcom wins Trainium 3 back-end with Intel EMIB, taking share from Marvell/Alchip; active on Trainium 4.

Rumor: Broadcom has adopted Intel’s EMIB and entered the back-end process of AWS Trainium 3.

Also, Broadcom is said to be very active on Trainium 4.

$AVGO $INTC

Just in: I'm not sure if I can share this, but it seems  that $AVGO did break into Trainium 3 back-end by proposing an Intel-EMIB solution and will gain share from Alchip and $MRVL (should be proportionally decreased?).

One more thing: $AVGO is also very "active" in Trainium 4.


Broadcom has adopted Intel's EMIB and entered the back-end process of AWS Trainium 3.


will gain share from Alchip and $MRVL (should be proportionally decreased?)


the contract price of server memory for the fourth quarter has skyrocketed by 40–50%… DDR5 prices have risen sharply since late September… shortages and price increases are expected to continue

Summary: Severe DRAM shortage with server memory prices up 40–50%; shortage expected to persist through end-2026, bullish for memory makers including Samsung and large Korean DRAM producers.

Global DRAM memory basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

Severe Memory Shortage… Major Customers’ Fulfillment Rate Plunges to 70%, Server DRAM Prices Surge 50%!

The memory shortage storm has entered a “grim” phase. Recently, upstream international original manufacturers have successively finalized contract prices for the fourth quarter of 2025. It is reported that due to fierce competition for supply, the order fulfillment rate of many first-tier major customers in the U.S. and China is only about 70%. Meanwhile, the contract price of server memory for the fourth quarter has skyrocketed by 40–50%, and the capacity allocation effect has also impacted other non-priority customers — their fulfillment rate over the next two quarters may fall below 40%.

The explosion of AI demand has triggered a widespread memory shortage and a rapid price surge across the entire industry. According to the supply chain, the shortage began to take a “turning point” in the third quarter, and now it’s too late to secure supply. Many memory module manufacturers may face an “out of stock” crisis in October, while large Korean manufacturers have “stopped giving quotes altogether.” DDR5 DRAM dies are completely sold out — buyers can only queue again for new orders in November.

Industry insiders privately admit that judging from the attitude of the original manufacturers, it’s not just October — the entire fourth quarter will likely be difficult to secure supply. “If you really have an urgent order,” one said, “just buy at the spot price.”

Looking at the spot market, DDR5 prices have risen sharply since late September, becoming the fastest-rising product line recently. Compared with the $7–8 range for 16Gb DDR5 in September, prices have now jumped to around $13, and shortages and price increases are expected to continue.

It is learned that Samsung Electronics recently announced its fourth-quarter contract pricing. With strong server demand and production capacity prioritized for advanced nodes, server applications have become the focal point of this wave of price hikes. Among them, enterprise SSDs rose by 15–35%, while server memory (RDIMM) prices soared by 40–50%, far exceeding the previously expected 30% increase.

Although memory makers have significantly raised prices for the fourth quarter, the supply chain estimates that the pressure of the supply scramble has already spread across the industry. Major U.S. and Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) cannot fully meet demand, with order fulfillment around 70%, based on the average delivery volume from the first three quarters of 2025.

As the four major U.S. hyperscalers account for about 50% of global data center share, and with OpenAI and Oracle expected to ramp up data center shipments in the second half of 2026, strong server memory demand means the DRAM supply shortage will likely persist until the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, the stocking pressure on small and medium-sized firms, distributors, and module makers continues to intensify. Since they cannot compete with first-tier manufacturers in delivery prioritization, their average fulfillment rate is only 35–40%, depending on company size and shipping capacity. The memory industry believes that at least until the first quarter of 2026, it will be difficult to resolve the “no stock available” dilemma.

Nanya Technology previously pointed out that DDR4 currently accounts for about 20% of the global DRAM market, of which more than 10% is DDR4 and the rest LPDDR4. Although PC makers are rapidly switching to DDR5, TV, networking, consumer, and IPC applications are less willing to transition. The industry also believes that data center switches still largely use DDR4. While the supply gap will gradually narrow over time, the long-tail effect will not disappear within the next one to two years, leaving more than 10% capacity shortfall.

Industry experts note that overall, the memory shortage not only drives price increases but may also trigger supply chain disruptions. As PC makers shift to DDR5 as the mainstream specification, DRAM contract prices continue to rise, OEM inventory levels are falling, and PC DRAM shortages are tightening further.

Although the supply chain pulled in orders early in the first half of 2025 due to tariff concerns, even if tariffs ease and the economy recovers in 2026, PC OEM customers may not be able to secure sufficient volumes even at high prices. When PC demand rebounds, it could resemble the “supply chain collapse and shortage” seen during the pandemic.

Recently, Xiaomi executives also revealed that the rise in memory chip costs has far exceeded expectations. This cost pressure has already been reflected in new product pricing and could intensify further in the future — showing that the memory price surge and shortage are gradually spreading to the PC and smartphone industries.

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https://t.co/f8jjUqVUYH


Samsung Electronics recently announced its fourth-quarter contract pricing… server memory (RDIMM) prices soared by 40–50%


the DRAM supply shortage will likely persist until the end of 2026


large Korean manufacturers have 'stopped giving quotes altogether'


positive signals are strengthening for the data center value chain, including companies such as Digital Realty and Equinix. These companies are expected to benefit over the medium term due to the tight supply in the data center market

Summary: Sharing Goldman read-through: raised hyperscaler CAPEX forecasts drive medium-term bullish view on DLR and EQIX on tight supply and accelerating pricing power.

251104_Americas Data Centers: Read-through to our coverage from 3Q25 hyperscaler earnings - Goldman Sachs

(1) Following 3Q25 results, we have raised our 2025(F)–2026(F) CAPEX forecasts for the major hyperscalers.

(2) CAPEX estimates
■ 2025(F): $377.9bn → $403.9bn [+7%]
■ 2026(F): $459.7bn → $551.7bn [+20%]

(3) This is because GPU-centric infrastructure investment is accelerating amid a surge in AI and cloud demand.

(4) Meanwhile, positive signals are strengthening for the data center value chain, including companies such as Digital Realty and Equinix.

(5) These companies are expected to benefit over the medium term due to the tight supply in the data center market.

(6) In particular, Digital Realty noted that when renewing contracts of 1MW or larger, the current renewal spread is about +20%.
■ Renewal spread = [new rent − prior rent] / prior rent = rate of increase.

(7) Demand for data center space remains very strong, further accelerating these companies’ pricing power.


Summary: SK Hynix locked in HBM4 supply to NVIDIA at ~$560/device (+50% vs HBM3E), above $500 market expectations, setting stage for record earnings next year.

SK hynix Raises HBM4 Supply Price by 50%
Agrees with NVIDIA on ~$560 Per Device
Confirms Dominant Position in 6th-Gen HBM

SK hynix has reportedly raised the price of its 6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), HBM4, by more than 50% in its supply contract with NVIDIA, the world’s largest AI semiconductor company. Despite a rival’s market entry, SK hynix successfully secured a steep price increase, reaffirming its dominant leadership in the HBM market and setting the stage for strong earnings growth.

According to SK hynix on the 5th, the company has completed negotiations with NVIDIA regarding both pricing and volumes for HBM4 supply next year. A source familiar with SK hynix stated, “HBM4 will be supplied at a price more than 50% higher than HBM3E.”

The supply price agreed upon with NVIDIA for HBM4 is confirmed to be around $560 per device (approximately 800,000 KRW). The market had expected SK hynix to supply HBM4 at about $500, but the actual contract price exceeds those expectations by more than 10%. Compared to the currently-supplied HBM3E (approximately $370), the HBM4 price is over 50% higher. It is also known that SK hynix recently shared guidance on HBM4 pricing and profitability during investor relations (IR) meetings with institutional investors.

With SK hynix concluding HBM4 price and supply negotiations with NVIDIA, expectations are building for record-breaking earnings next year. The global expansion of AI infrastructure is driving price increases not only for HBM but also for general-purpose DRAM. SK hynix recorded 11.3834 trillion KRW in operating profit in the third quarter of this year, and market projections suggest that quarterly operating profit may exceed 15 trillion KRW next year.

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Original article:
https://t.co/PqtsY7MVie


Summary: Holds both Samsung and SK Hynix long, with a larger position in SK Hynix.

@momqoqyoy I hold both Samsung and SK hynix, but I hold more of SK hynix.


I agree with Jefferies' note — Micron needs to redesign its HBM4. to achieve commercially viable yield and profitability.

Summary: Bearish MU: author agrees Micron must redesign HBM4 to reach viable yield/profitability, implying near-term competitive disadvantage.

"He said he heard from his engineering sources that Micron is currently redesigning its HBM4 chip."

I agree with Jefferies’ note — Micron needs to redesign its HBM4.

to achieve commercially viable yield and profitability.

This Jefferies note on $MU reads really intg imo. Would love to hear what @Jukanlosreve or other specialist in the space have to say:

"Notes from Call with Jeff Kim on Samsung TOP PICK. He thinks $MU Micron needs to do a redesign to be able to deliver HBM4 in scale and may be https://t.co/Tn4e80ueJ0


there's a real possibility that the shortage of commodity DRAM could worsen as CXMT reallocates capacity toward HBM

Summary: Commodity DRAM shortage likely to worsen as CXMT shifts capacity to HBM, bullish for DRAM pricing/supply tightness.

Commodity DRAM basket: Micron, Nanya, Winbond

I think there’s a real possibility that the shortage of commodity DRAM could worsen as CXMT reallocates capacity toward HBM. https://t.co/lwfVqCdP2j


J.P. Morgan's latest research argues that...the AI-driven semiconductor upcycle has not yet peaked and will extend to 2027

Summary: Shares JPM thesis: AI/semi upcycle extends to 2027, Asia tech has further upside, TSMC top pick Overweight.

AI semiconductor-focused Asia tech basket

J.P. Morgan: The AI- and semiconductor-led upcycle extends to 2027; Asia tech still has upside next year

J.P. Morgan’s latest research argues that despite persistent market concerns about an AI bubble, the AI-driven semiconductor upcycle has not yet peaked and will extend to 2027, transcending the usual rules of the cycle.

In a report published on November 11, 2025, the bank raised its outlook, forecasting global semiconductor revenue growth of 18% in 2026 and 11% in 2027. This view is based mainly on the still-steep early adoption curve of generative AI, the strong capital-expenditure commitment of leading cloud service providers (CSPs), and conservative expansion strategies at key points in the supply chain.

J.P. Morgan said Asia’s tech market will be in a “subtle” equilibrium in 2026. On one hand, investors will continue to fret about a cycle peak; on the other, they will keep seeing sustained upward revisions to EPS powered by AI infrastructure build-out and price increases in some components. The bank believes this powerful earnings-upgrade trend will ultimately drive further gains in Asia tech stocks over the next few quarters.

This view directly challenges the growing market narrative that an “AI bubble is about to burst,” offering investors a new lens for evaluating the tech sector. J.P. Morgan argues that given the unique character of the current cycle, past rules of thumb cannot be applied wholesale; instead, more attention should be paid to its embedded structural drivers.

Coexistence of divided opinions and earnings upgrades
In the report, J.P. Morgan notes that by classical gauges—such as cycle duration and the magnitude of earnings growth—the current upcycle may look late-stage, but that does not mean the trend is about to reverse. In the first half of 2026, Asia tech still has room to rise on the back of strong profit growth at leading AI companies.

Over the past three months, EPS-upgrade momentum for Asia tech has visibly accelerated, driven by memory chips and other general tech products. The report points out that strong AI demand is “crowding out” supply across the industry, creating shortages from advanced packaging (CoWoS), leading-edge foundry and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), to mainstream OSAT, MLCC, and commodity DRAM/NAND. Because capacity additions by suppliers in this cycle are far slower than normal, the resulting price increases should further propel earnings upgrades.

Four reasons supporting an extra-long cycle
J.P. Morgan’s analysts believe several unique features of this cycle distinguish it from the broad, GDP-led recoveries of the past and are sufficient to extend the upcycle to 2027.

First, this is a “K-shaped recovery.” Since mid-2023, the market has seen a split between AI and non-AI demand. AI-related demand is strong, while other areas of tech are in a corrective phase.

Second, generative AI adoption is rising along a steep S-curve, with a trajectory more akin to the early phases of smartphones or public cloud. The report notes that it took smartphones roughly seven years and public cloud about nine years before annual growth fell below 20%. By contrast, generative AI is only in year four and is expected to maintain 50–60% year-over-year growth in 2026, underscoring enormous growth potential.

Third, leading CSPs have both the capacity and the will to keep investing. While there are concerns about free cash flow (FCF) at smaller CSPs, J.P. Morgan’s analysis suggests capex at the top six CSPs will surge 67% in 2025 and can grow another ~32% in 2026. Even assuming flat free cash flow in 2027, these companies would still have room to lift capex by a further 13%, indicating balance sheets can support continued expansion of AI infrastructure.

Lastly, the supply response in core areas is sluggish. Semiconductor equipment spending has been notably conservative in this cycle, and supply is highly concentrated among a handful of firms such as TSMC and SK hynix. The report expects TSMC’s capex to increase 16% in 2026, while DRAM industry capex rises only 11%. This implies that shortages in key stages—3nm, CoWoS, and HBM—will persist through 2026, prolonging chip tightness.

Based on these judgments, J.P. Morgan proposes a “barbell” portfolio strategy for 2026: on one end, front-line AI enablers; on the other, companies poised to benefit from price increases and margin expansion with clear earnings-upgrade potential. The report maintains an Overweight on TSMC and names it a top pick.


The report maintains an Overweight on TSMC and names it a top pick


Summary: Bullish Samsung and SK Hynix: DDR5 supply tightening from HBM capacity shift drives above-expected Q4 price hikes persisting through H1 next year.

Samsung Electronics listed on KOSPI as 005930.KS

Server DDR5 prices, additional year-end hikes becoming a reality … A signal that the memory market is overheating again

Server DDR5 prices are turning upward again ahead of year-end, making signs of overheating in the memory market increasingly clear. As factories and manpower have been heavily shifted toward expanding HBM (high bandwidth memory) production, the production capacity for commodity memory has declined, while DDR5 demand is rapidly increasing on the back of AI server proliferation. Against this backdrop, the view that the magnitude of the fourth-quarter contract price hikes is turning out larger than expected is gaining traction.

According to the semiconductor industry on the 14th, major memory suppliers are in talks with customers over plans to raise fourth-quarter DDR5 contract prices once more compared with the previous quarter. The biggest reason is that, with production capacity (CAPA) concentrated on HBM not returning easily, the available volume of server DRAM has decreased.

In particular, in the second half of this year, the ramp-up preparations for HBM3E and early HBM4 supply overlapped, creating severe bottlenecks at leading-edge process nodes, and DDR5 production has effectively been pushed down the priority list. Within the industry, the consensus is that as production lines are being reconfigured around HBM, supply pressure on commodity memory is intensifying and the extent of DDR5 contract price hikes in the fourth quarter will be visibly greater than in the first half.

The strategies put in place by the three global cloud giants to lock in next year’s volumes are also cited as another factor fueling price increases. Major cloud service providers (CSPs) such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are accelerating early contracts by prioritizing next year’s DDR5 volumes in order to speed up AI infrastructure build-outs, and in the process, DDR5’s premium pricing structure has become entrenched.

In the DDR4 era, prices were adjusted through quarterly negotiations, but DDR5 is creating a new market order in which demand outstrips supply. The growing prevalence of advance purchases and early-allocation contracts, rarely seen in the traditional commodity memory market, is part of the same trend.

The inventory days of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix also lend support to the outlook for further price increases. The DRAM inventory days of both companies have fallen to the lowest level in the past three years, providing a basis for additional price hikes. As DDR5 is already in a structurally “tight supply-demand” state in the market, analysis is emerging that its strength is likely to continue into next year without any short-term correction.

The fact that surging AI server demand is simultaneously tightening both commodity memory and HBM is another key variable. While the share of HBM has increased as AI training GPUs require high-performance memory, the baseline configuration of AI servers has also expanded, pushing DDR5 installed capacity significantly higher compared with the past. AI companies and CSPs are competing to scale up their AI models, and the dominant assessment is that the likelihood of server DRAM demand settling at a lower level next year is not high.

Manufacturers project that the upward pressure on prices will persist at least through the first half of next year. In the initial phase of HBM4 mass production, it will take time to stabilize processes and secure yields, and during this period, production capacity is unlikely to stretch far enough to cover DDR5. Within the semiconductor industry, the prevailing view is that as HBM4 preparations move into full swing, tight conditions across overall DRAM will be maintained at least through the first half, and in the near term, DDR5 prices are more likely to see further increases than any meaningful correction.

Semiconductor industry experts and market analysts judge that the current DDR5 price hikes should be seen not as a mere seasonal factor but as a “medium- to long-term inflection point” created by changes in AI infrastructure and process transitions. With yet another round of price increases signaled for year-end and upward pressure likely to persist across memory into the first half of next year, how cloud and server companies respond is expected to become another key point of interest for the industry.

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https://t.co/Saw141jWTd


Summary: Holds a live long position in AMAT.

@ArikCR23 I hold a long position in AMAT.

@Jukanlosreve How do you think this will affect AMAT KLAC CAMT NVMI?


Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for NVIDIA's FY2027 revenue/EPS to 298.5 billion U.S. dollars / 7.11 U.S. dollars and increased its target price from 210 to 220 U.S. dollars. It maintains an 'Overweight' rating.

Summary: Shares/endorses Morgan Stanley Overweight on NVDA, PT raised to $220 on Blackwell full-ramp, accelerating demand, and raised FY2027 estimates.

NVIDIA: Full-Scale Ramp of Blackwell, Demand Accelerating, Outlook Raised, Target Price Increased
Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 25/11/14)

Morgan Stanley stated that over the past 45 days, industry conditions have clearly inflected to the upside, Blackwell cabinets have entered a phase of fully accelerated shipments, and this quarter is expected to be the strongest in several quarters. While the stock’s performance this year has not been weak, it has already clearly lagged AI peers, and the firm believes this trend will reverse.

According to supply-chain research, cabinet-related issues have been completely resolved and demand on NVIDIA’s side is heating up sharply. Bottlenecks are now more visible in related infrastructure such as memory, servers, power and data-center space, but not to a degree that restricts GPU shipments. Customers and suppliers broadly report that demand is accelerating, whereas market expectations for NVIDIA’s growth remain low, creating a clear mismatch with the signals coming from the broader ecosystem. CEO Jensen Huang noted at GTC that revenue for the next five quarters needs to be raised by 70–80 billion U.S. dollars, yet the share price is currently about 10% lower than it was at that time.

Cloud providers’ 2026 Capex was revised up by 142 billion dollars in the third quarter, and the ROIs of major hyperscale customers remain very solid, supporting continued expansion. On the ODM side, Quanta expects its AI server revenue to double in 2026 and plans to double capacity as well; Wistron forecasts that AI servers will grow quarter-on-quarter throughout 2026; and Hon Hai (Foxconn) is expected to achieve “strong double-digit growth” in cabinet shipments in the fourth quarter. Downstream demand for key components such as optical modules, DRAM and NAND is likewise very strong.

Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for NVIDIA’s FY2027 revenue/EPS to 298.5 billion U.S. dollars / 7.11 U.S. dollars and increased its target price from 210 to 220 U.S. dollars (applying a 26x multiple to 2027 MW EPS of 8.43 U.S. dollars). The firm believes that although a higher ASIC mix next year could put some pressure on NVIDIA’s market share, enthusiasm for alternative solutions will decline markedly after Rubin is launched, and product leadership will remain intact. It maintains an “Overweight” rating.

$NVDA


Samsung has finally secured a place in NVIDIA's supply chain — a development that is expected to reshape the global HBM market landscape

Summary: Samsung HBM3E confirmed for NVIDIA GB300; re-entry into NVIDIA supply chain after 19 months seen as highly meaningful with HBM4 qualification potentially accelerated.

[Exclusive] Samsung’s HBM Confirmed for NVIDIA GB300 — Jensen Huang Sends Letter to Lee Jae-yong

NVIDIA has officially decided to equip its latest AI accelerator, the GB300, with Samsung Electronics’ (005930) fifth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM3E). After years of setbacks, Samsung has finally secured a place in NVIDIA’s supply chain — a development that is expected to reshape the global HBM market landscape.

According to industry sources cited by News1 on the 9th, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang recently sent a letter to Samsung Chairman Lee Jae-yong, informing him of NVIDIA’s decision to adopt Samsung’s HBM3E 12-high stack for the GB300 system.

This letter effectively served as Huang’s official notification that Samsung had passed NVIDIA’s HBM3E qualification tests and that NVIDIA intended to place an order. The two companies are now said to be finalizing the details of supply volume, pricing, and schedule.

This marks Samsung’s re-entry into NVIDIA’s supply chain after about 19 months. During NVIDIA’s GTC 2024 in March last year, Huang personally signed “Jensen Approved” on Samsung’s 12-high HBM3E module, fueling speculation about a potential supply deal.

However, Samsung repeatedly failed to secure the contract. Matters worsened when Huang remarked at CES 2025 in January that “HBM needs to be redesigned,” embarrassing the company publicly. Around that time, Chairman Lee’s call for a “tougher Samsung” pushed the firm to deliver a redesigned sample in the first half of this year.

Although the industry is already transitioning to sixth-generation HBM4, the supply volume of Samsung’s HBM3E 12-high chips for GB300 is expected to be limited. Still, the fact that Samsung has overcome its long-standing technical bottlenecks is considered highly meaningful. The successful qualification of Samsung’s upcoming HBM4 could also be accelerated.

Industry observers attribute the breakthrough to Lee Jae-yong’s personal sales diplomacy. Following his acquittal by the Supreme Court in August, Lee spent much of that month in the United States holding business meetings — reportedly including a meeting with Jensen Huang. Upon returning to Korea after his first U.S. trip on August 15, Lee told reporters, “I’ve been preparing for next year’s business.”

Meanwhile, sources say that in their letter exchange, Lee also expressed Samsung’s intention to purchase 50,000 NVIDIA GPUs. Although the specific purpose remains unclear, the GPUs are believed to support Samsung’s AX (AI transformation) initiative and expansion into AI-related businesses.

At a press conference during IFA 2025 in Berlin last month, Roh Tae-moon, acting head of Samsung’s DX (Device Experience) division, stated that the company aims to apply AI to 90% of its business operations by 2030. Some industry insiders believe the purchased GPUs could be used in the Pohang AI data center jointly built by Samsung and OpenAI.

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https://t.co/lMJ2i3U5CG


Summary: Shares Citi bullish note on Micron: DRAM next AI contract wave, margins to peak, estimates/PT raised.

Will OpenAI sign a contract with Micron?

$MU https://t.co/zyya6QpivJ

Citi) Micron – Following the Footsteps of AI: DRAM Expected to Face Unprecedented Demand Next; Margins to Return to Peak Levels, Estimates and Target Price Raised

We believe that DRAM will be the next semiconductor to sign long-term contracts with AI-related companies — similar


Summary: Shares J.P. Morgan view that AI/semi upcycle extends to 2027 with Asia tech upside; capex at top CSPs surging 67% in 2025 and growing further through 2027.

"While there are concerns about FCF at smaller CSPs, J.P. Morgan’s analysis suggests capex at the top six CSPs will surge 67% in 2025 and can grow another ~32% in 2026. Even assuming flat free cash flow in 2027, these companies would still have room to lift capex by a further 13%, indicating balance sheets can support continued expansion of AI infrastructure."

J.P. Morgan: The AI- and semiconductor-led upcycle extends to 2027; Asia tech still has upside next year

J.P. Morgan’s latest research argues that despite persistent market concerns about an AI bubble, the AI-driven semiconductor upcycle has not yet peaked and will extend to https://t.co/EveRsVnFAt


the AI-driven semiconductor upcycle has not yet peaked and will extend to


revenue guidance for the second quarter is projected at up to $19.1 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $14.4 billion

Summary: Bullish MU: record revenue beat, Q2 guide $19.1B vs $14.4B consensus, rising DRAM prices, 1γ ramp driving further growth.

Micron’s Performance Soars Despite Dwindling China Revenue, Fueled by Rising DRAM Prices

Micron Technology recently delivered an "earnings surprise" despite a decline in mobile DRAM sales to the Chinese market. A steep upward trend in commodity DRAM prices bolstered the overall performance. As a result, observers suggest that while Micron may lag behind competitors in the next-generation HBM4 market due to technical hurdles, its broader profitability remains on a high-growth trajectory.

According to Micron’s results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (September–November 2025), revenue reached $13.643 billion (approximately KRW 20.146 trillion), a 55.6% year-over-year increase. This figure surpassed the market consensus of $13 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also came in at $4.78, significantly exceeding the average market estimate of $3.93.

During the conference call, Micron stated, "The company achieved record-high revenue overall, as well as in DRAM, NAND Flash, and HBM segments." The company added, "We plan to increase DRAM and NAND bit shipments by approximately 20% next year." Despite the planned supply expansion, Micron explained that market demand is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future.

This earnings surprise is particularly noteworthy because it comes at a time when Micron's supply of commodity DRAM to China has significantly decreased. According to industry sources, Micron’s revenue from mobile DRAM products such as LPDDR4 and LPDDR5 supplied to China has seen a substantial drop.

An industry official noted, "Micron's mobile DRAM revenue from China fell by about 30% compared to last year. While demand from Chinese clients for commodity DRAM remains high due to supply shortages, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China have restricted Micron’s sales, leading to a decline in actual shipments."

As a U.S.-based company, Micron is more susceptible to geopolitical risks than its competitors. The official added, "In the Chinese market, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix only go as far as slightly lowering supply prices compared to local firms like CXMT, but Micron faces direct pressure on shipment volumes themselves."

However, the overall impact on revenue was limited, as Micron diversified its mobile DRAM supply to various clients, including Apple and Samsung Electronics. Furthermore, the rising prices of commodity DRAM are generating significant profits. Market research firm TrendForce predicts that the price gap between HBM3E and server-grade DDR5 will narrow from the current 4–5x range to 1–2x by the end of next year.

To maximize profitability, Micron is currently using quarterly contract structures for all customers instead of Long-Term Agreements (LTA). Another industry source explained, "Micron previously utilized LTAs or MOUs to secure volumes for key customers and negotiate prices. However, with the recent volatility in price increases, they have reportedly withdrawn these practices without exception."

There is also speculation that Micron may allocate more capacity to commodity DRAM. Nvidia, the largest consumer of HBM, prioritizes speed for the next-generation HBM4. However, Micron's design focuses on power efficiency, failing to meet these specific requirements. Compounded by redesign issues, Micron is evaluated as a latecomer in the Nvidia HBM4 supply chain. Consequently, Micron may pivot a significant portion of its capacity toward commodity DRAM such as GDDR7 and DDR5.

Meanwhile, Micron provided an optimistic outlook for the next quarter. The revenue guidance for the second quarter (December 2025–February 2026) is projected at up to $19.1 billion, far exceeding the market expectation of $14.4 billion. Micron stated, "The 1γ (gamma, equivalent to 1c) DRAM process is ramping up smoothly. It will be a key driver for DRAM bit growth next year and is expected to account for more than half of total bit production by the second half of the year."

$MU

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https://t.co/0Oqh5FDZ9c


Summary: Price targets: Samsung at 97,000 KRW and SK Hynix at 440,000 KRW implying upside from current levels.

SK Hynix KRW 440,000 https://t.co/IEFJDrh27x

Samsung -> 97,000 KRW https://t.co/Qrphdd2tfX


Summary: Bullish on Cisco.

@blueskyalpha I still don’t have conviction about the MI450.

Cisco looks good.

I don’t have a view on IBM.

@jukan05 What's your view on AMD 2026 releases onwards? And on IBM and Cisco?


Samsung is expected to secure the No. 2 position in NVIDIA's HBM4 supply chain next year

Summary: Samsung set to capture ~30% of NVIDIA HBM4 in H2 2026; bearish on SK Hynix margins and Micron's HBM4 competitiveness as Samsung disrupts the supply chain.

Samsung Expected to Rank Second in NVIDIA-Bound HBM4 Market Share… “Positive Shift in Samsung DS Division’s Morale”

Samsung Electronics, which had long struggled in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, is seeking a turnaround. Although it did not achieve notable success with the previous-generation HBM3E, industry observers say the atmosphere is shifting with the next-generation HBM4. In particular, visible collaboration with NVIDIA — the largest HBM customer — is positioning Samsung as a potential “game changer” capable of reshaping the market landscape.

According to industry sources, Samsung is expected to secure the No. 2 position in NVIDIA’s HBM4 supply chain next year. While SK hynix is likely to maintain exclusivity in the first half, the competitive landscape is projected to be reorganized in the second half. Semiconductor industry insiders anticipate that SK hynix’s share of NVIDIA’s HBM4 orders will fall from 100% in the first half of next year to around 60% in the second half, while Samsung could capture up to 30% and Micron between 10–15%.

Given that Samsung’s share of NVIDIA’s HBM supply was previously at 0%, this represents remarkable growth. If these projections materialize, Samsung will not only break SK hynix’s near-monopoly but also widen the gap with competitor Micron.

An industry official stated, “NVIDIA has largely completed negotiations with SK hynix for first-half HBM4 supply,” adding, “Since SK hynix was the first to submit customer (CS) samples, it’s likely to complete qualification testing by year-end, making a monopoly structure inevitable for the first half.” The official continued, “However, from the second half onward, both Samsung and Micron will enter the supply chain, which will completely reshape the landscape.”

The fact that NVIDIA only finalized supply for the first half with SK hynix — the No. 1 HBM supplier — already signals a shift in its procurement strategy. Normally, NVIDIA signs one-year HBM supply contracts with vendors, but in the case of HBM4, the company is cautiously adjusting volumes and prices, anticipating new entrants.

Micron, meanwhile, has found itself at a disadvantage after failing to meet NVIDIA’s requirements for higher HBM4 speeds. The company’s strategy of producing base dies in-house prioritized power efficiency, but that approach has limited performance improvement. Although Micron officially announced in its latest earnings release that the issue had been “resolved,” skepticism remains within the industry.

“The base die issue Micron faces isn’t something that can be fixed in a month or two,” another industry source said. “It’s likely they were referring to samples that happened to perform better than average.”

Samsung’s HBM4 yield still requires improvement but has shown progress compared to before. Another industry insider noted, “Samsung’s current 1c DRAM sample yield exceeds 70% for DDR5 and has reached about 50% for HBM4. That’s definitely an improvement over the past,” adding, “However, it’s still insufficient for full-scale mass production. To begin mass production of HBM, yields need to surpass at least 70%.”

Even if Samsung is waging an “aggressive pricing offensive” for HBM in the second half, ramping up wafer input at this stage would sharply erode profitability. The key task is to improve yields before shifting to volume production. If the company can also resolve heat dissipation issues, its competitiveness could rise significantly. “Samsung’s HBM4 design is structurally advantageous for bandwidth expansion,” the insider said. “If it manages thermal control as well, it could become a very competitive chip.”

With these positive signals around HBM4, morale has reportedly improved within Samsung’s semiconductor (DS) division. Earlier this year, the team had been demoralized by falling behind competitors — to the extent that, during executive gatherings, conversation was often minimal.

One company insider shared, “Honestly, up until the first half, the department’s mood was terrible. Many engineers felt a sense of relative deprivation watching SK hynix perform so well,” adding, “But recently, there’s been a renewed sense of energy and determination — people are motivated again.”

Meanwhile, Samsung’s faster-than-expected emergence as a “catfish” (disruptor) in NVIDIA’s HBM supply chain is expected to put pressure on SK hynix’s profitability. The previous-generation HBM3E 12-layer product is already projected to see prices fall by around 30% within a year. Currently, SK hynix’s HBM3E 12-layer chips are priced roughly 30% higher than Samsung’s.

Samsung’s “HBM volume offensive” is thus likely to drive SK hynix’s product prices downward, bringing both companies’ prices to similar levels by the end of next year. “HBM4 will likely follow a similar trend,” one industry figure explained. “SK hynix will be able to maintain a price premium as the ‘sole vendor’ in the first half of next year, but from the second half onward, it’ll be difficult to sustain that margin.”

$MU

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https://t.co/y0o4tv4MIm


Samsung's 'HBM volume offensive' is thus likely to drive SK hynix's product prices downward… SK hynix will be able to maintain a price premium as the 'sole vendor' in the first half of next year, but from the second half onward, it'll be difficult to sustain that margin


Micron, meanwhile, has found itself at a disadvantage after failing to meet NVIDIA's requirements for higher HBM4 speeds… skepticism remains within the industry


If I have more capital, I'm going to buy Xiaomi. They're a truly excellent company.

Summary: Would buy Xiaomi; views it as a truly excellent company.

@TacticzH If I have more capital, I’m going to buy Xiaomi.
They’re a truly excellent company.


With performance differing by more than 6x while price differs by only 1.3x, from this perspective, the analysis is that the H200's cost-effectiveness and attractiveness will rise significantly.

Summary: H200 China supply confirmed at only 1.3x H20 price but 6.7x performance; author endorses the bullish read on NVDA demand uplift.

China-bound H200: China supply essentially confirmed, yet only ~1.3x pricier than the H20…

According to Chinese media reports, Nvidia’s H200 sales to China are said to be virtually confirmed.

Also, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (黄仁勋) is reportedly scheduled to visit China in January 2026.

According to Chinese media, the H200 8-card module is priced at 1.4 million yuan (about $200,000), which is slightly more expensive than the H20.

Nvidia’s H20 initially came in a 96GB HBM3 memory version, and earlier this year it released an upgraded 141GB HBM3e version. The price of this 8-card module once rose from 880,000 yuan to 1.05 million yuan.

Wu Zihao (吴梓豪), CEO of Ronghe (蓉和) Semiconductor Consulting, stated that on a performance-per-density (TPP) basis, the next-generation “special supply” product H200 has a compute value of 15,832, about 6.7x that of the H20.

He added, “TPP performance density is a more objective comparison at the physical layer, whereas TFLOPS floating-point operations often produce comparison errors because manufacturers use different calculation methodologies.”

With performance differing by more than 6x while price differs by only 1.3x, from this perspective, the analysis is that the H200’s cost-effectiveness and attractiveness will rise significantly.

$NVDA

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https://t.co/p48Dp35ms2