Summary: Meritz bullish on Doosan Electronics (NVIDIA CCL supply chain, H2 momentum) and ISU PETASYS (ASIC PCB, long-term uptrend) as AI hardware supply chain concerns dissipate.

Doosan Electronics 006280.KS Korea CCL maker

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

[Meritz Securities Electronics/IT Components Yang Seung-soo]

▶ Review of Key Trends in AI Hardware

<NVIDIA Supply Chain Concerns Dissipate>

- In the first quarter, NVIDIA's ODMs such as Foxconn, Wistron, and Quanta experienced yield issues, leading to sluggish shipments of the GB200 NVL72 server racks. This continuously raised the possibility that the shipment forecast for the entire supply chain in the second half of the year could be significantly revised downwards.

- This was because, although NVIDIA's business structure recognizes revenue at the time of shipping UBB (for HGX) or Bianca (for GB) boards under contracts with CSPs, regardless of the final GB200 NVL72 server rack shipment, the potential for Blackwell GPU production adjustments in the second half was highlighted due to the continuous inventory burden on downstream ODM companies (Refer to Figure 1).

- However, concerns about production cuts are expected to be resolved from both top-down and bottom-up perspectives.

Top-down: The expansion of inference and AI agents into the B2C domain signifies a surge in the number of tokens generated. This implies that AI hardware demand is structured to continuously expand, contrary to concerns about a reduction in AI capex. Furthermore, national-level infrastructure investments, such as for sovereign AI, are also beginning in earnest.

Bottom-up: The ramp-up speed of the GB200 NVL72 by Taiwanese ODM companies has been gradually improving through April and May, which is alleviating the inventory burden contrary to market concerns. On an annual basis, NVL72 shipments are also expected to be better than the market's feared range (10,000-15,000 units).

- It is noteworthy that the earnings momentum for the entire NVIDIA-centric supply chain could strengthen again in the second half of the year (Our covered stock: Doosan).

<ASIC Supply Chain Also Exceeds Expectations>
- The entire Taiwanese ASIC supply chain is demonstrating performance that exceeds expectations (e.g., Wiwynn, and GCE, FHT, EMC which supply PCBs and CCLs for AWS Trainium).

- The growth drivers for the ASIC market are 1) the full-scale expansion of the inference market and 2) the strengthening of CSPs' negotiation power against NVIDIA.

- Consequently, in addition to the currently mass-produced Google TPU and AWS Trainium, custom-designed ASICs by U.S. CSPs are scheduled to enter mass production starting from the second half of 2025.

- As a result, we maintain a positive view on the ASIC supply chain, as it is expected to continue a stable, long-term upward trajectory (Our covered stock: ISU PETASYS).

<PCB, CCL Hardware Supply Chain Diversification – Expectation of NVIDIA Supply Chain Premium>

- The trend of supply chain diversification for PCBs and CCLs within the AI supply chain is accelerating. This is because 1) the supply shortage of high-specification glass fiber with low dielectric constant (Low Dk) and low coefficient of thermal expansion (Low CTE) characteristics is intensifying due to the surge in AI demand, and 2) moves to reduce supply chain dependency on China are expanding due to the intensifying U.S.-China tech hegemony competition.

- For CCLs, supply chain diversification is occurring within the relatively cost-sensitive ASIC supply chain. Representatively, Taiwan's TUC is presumed to have newly joined AWS's Trainium supply chain, and EMC is increasing its share within the Google TPU supply chain, which was virtually monopolized by Panasonic. Additionally, Korea's Doosan Electronics is also conducting sample tests for both clients.

- However, in NVIDIA's case, it prioritizes delivery time and quality based on stable demand, and its attempts at supply chain diversification are understood to be limited at present. A premium for the NVIDIA supply chain is expected to be maintained for CCLs (Refer to Figures 13, 16).

- In the PCB sector, the trend of diversifying production bases to countries like Thailand and Malaysia, away from China, continues. However, for high-difficulty PCBs, the skill level of the workforce is a key variable in securing yield and quality. In this aspect, the relative competitiveness of ISU PETASYS, which is building its 5th factory in Korea, is expected to be highlighted in the mid-to-long term.


we maintain a positive view on the ASIC supply chain, as it is expected to continue a stable, long-term upward trajectory (Our covered stock: ISU PETASYS)

ISU Petasys 007660.KS Korea PCB ASIC supply chain


AMD is demonstrating formidable ambition in the AI sector... putting significant pressure on NVIDIA... effectively putting NVIDIA in a hardware-catching-up role

Summary: Bullish AMD on MI500/N2P roadmap + RX 9060 XT value proposition; bearish NVDA as AMD's competitive push forces hardware catch-up.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Report: AMD MI500 to be mass-produced using TSMC's N2P process, signaling direct competition with NVIDIA

AMD is demonstrating formidable ambition in the AI sector. The MI500 series, slated for a 2027 launch, is already mapped out in its product roadmap, featuring the EPYC “Verano” CPUs and an AI rack-level solution, putting significant pressure on NVIDIA. In the consumer segment, AMD has recently launched its mainstream graphics card—the RX 9060 XT—which offers a better price-to-performance ratio compared to NVIDIA’s RTX 5060 Ti. Supply-chain sources estimate that the Verano CPU will be manufactured using TSMC’s second-generation 2 nm process (N2P), fully embracing TSMC by leveraging advanced process nodes and the latest packaging technologies to confront NVIDIA head-on with the strongest hardware.

At the “Advancing AI 2025” event, AMD Chair and CEO Dr. Lisa Su unveiled a clear product lineup. In the AI accelerator space, AMD is presenting a complete solution—from next year’s “Helios” AI cabinet system to the MI500 series GPU in the following year—continuing its strong push in the AI field, with a significant leap expected in 2026.

In contrast to NVIDIA’s upcoming “Vera” CPU, AMD’s Helios AI rack-level product, equipped with the Venice CPU, already employs TSMC’s 2 nm process technology for high-performance computing (HPC) and features up to 256 cores—a 33 percent increase over the previous generation. Supply-chain analysts believe that the next-generation Verano will continue to use the N2P process, and it is not ruled out that the MI500 GPU will further advance its process node, effectively putting NVIDIA in a hardware-catching-up role.

Consumer-grade products are advancing in parallel. AMD’s mainstream market card, the RX 9060 XT, starts at just USD 299—approximately 8 percent cheaper than competing products—without compromising performance.

$AMD $NVDA

---

https://t.co/zzJW4MPnxh


effectively putting NVIDIA in a hardware-catching-up role


Summary: UBS: Samsung HBM3E 12Hi cert delayed to Q4 2025; Micron seen as beneficiary.

* UBS: SAMSUNG'S HBM3E 12HI NVIDIA CERTIFICATION DELAYED TO Q4 2025, MICRON TO BENEFIT


SAMSUNG'S HBM3E 12HI NVIDIA CERTIFICATION DELAYED TO Q4 2025


Summary: Author plans 2x leveraged short on crude oil despite Hormuz closure news and JPM $120–130 projection.

JPMorgan has projected that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil prices could rise to $120–130 per barrel.

I'm preparing to take a 2x short position on crude oil :)

> Iran's parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with the final decision resting with the Supreme National Security Council, according to Press TV.

WTF?


Summary: Goldman reiterates Buy/CL on TSMC and MediaTek; AI sentiment improving as ODM yield gains reduce risk of further NVDA GB200/GB300 order cuts.

Goldman Sachs: Generative AI / Broader AI Theme Back in Focus, Stocks on the Rise

Our analyst Bruce, currently on a trip related to TSMC (and Asian semiconductor equipment names), reports signs of improving investor sentiment, particularly in the AI space. In contrast, investors remain cautious about non-AI demand amid continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty.

Please also refer to Bruce’s recent investor marketing sessions conducted in both the U.S. and Asia (TSMC analyst). According to him, while investor sentiment is showing signs of improvement in the AI segment, there remains a cautious stance toward non-AI demand due to persistent macro and geopolitical risks. Key discussions focused on TSMC (Buy-rated, on Conviction List), MediaTek (Buy-rated, on Conviction List), and UMC, a second-tier foundry.

On AI, Bruce noted:

“We believe investor sentiment around AI demand has become increasingly positive. With improved assembly yields at downstream ODMs for AI server racks, the mismatch between upstream and downstream supply chains is easing. This reduces the likelihood of further and larger-scale AI order cuts in the near term. Previously, during our investor meetings in Hong Kong in March 2025 (see note), investors had broadly expressed concerns about potential downside risks to AI demand — particularly the risk of further order reductions for NVIDIA’s GB200/GB300 NVL72 AI server racks. However, as ODMs are now achieving better assembly yields, we believe the probability of significant further AI order cuts has diminished.”


MediaTek (Buy-rated, on Conviction List)


the probability of significant further AI order cuts has diminished


Summary: Marvell faces weakness; MediaTek flagged as a positive watch.

Marvell will likely have a hard time avoiding weakness. However, MediaTek is worth keeping an eye on. https://t.co/Qceg6TIlKe

---

What will happen to non-TSMC OSAT companies? I think their growth is slow. https://t.co/ezfJXtMGw8

---

This table reveals two key points:

1. The B300A was thought to be canceled, but it still exists. However, its shipment volume is limited.

2. Chinese ASIC companies have no access to nodes below 7nm. https://t.co/StdjJn6jpT


Summary: NVL72 rack shipments rising sharply MoM (1-1.15k→2-2.5k) with June expected higher; bullish demand signal for NVDA.

A major U.S. investment bank (Morgan Stanley) observed that shipments of NVIDIA's NVL72 racks are increasing noticeably.

- Shipments in May are estimated at around 2,000–2,500 units, compared to approximately 1,000–1,150 units in April.
- Analysts expect the shipment volume to continue rising in June.

Breakdown by supplier:
- Hon Hai (Foxconn): ~1,000 units
- Wistron: Equivalent to ~900–1,000 racks based on compute trays
- Quanta: ~400 units

早安！6/10 外電綜合整理

- AI供應鏈追蹤報導：
美系大行觀察NVL72 rack出貨量有感增加，訪查5月應有2-2.5k(~四月1-1.15k), 券商估計6月出貨量續增。
其中鴻海1k, 緯創compute tray相當於900-1k rack, 廣達400。

- 2376技嘉: 月營收靚
美系大行重申Top Pick,


Summary: JPMorgan reiterates bullish stance on Hon Hai: GB200/AI server revenue doubling QoQ, two-year datacenter visibility, smartphone/EV diversification offsetting 2H tariff/FX caution.

Hon Hai Precision 2317.TW Taiwan (Foxconn)

Hon Hai: GB200 ramping up, long-term visibility in AI servers, diversified growth from smartphones and EV expansion
JPMorgan (G. Hariharan, 25/05/16)

(1) GB200 server rack shipments accelerating, AI server revenue doubling

Hon Hai’s AI server revenue share rose from 40–42% in 2024 to 50% in Q1, driven primarily by the large-scale ramp-up of GB200 production starting in late March. Management expects AI server revenue to double quarter-over-quarter in Q2 and maintains its full-year growth guidance. The 2025 target is over 30,000 server rack shipments, including around 10,000 units of GB200/GB300 NVL72. U.S. capacity has already begun shipments, and global capacity is sufficient to meet demand for the next 1–2 years.

(2) Limited integration bottlenecks, manageable margin impact
The main bottlenecks for AI servers are hardware-software integration and final testing. While the initial ramp-up is expected to take two quarters, margins were not significantly eroded due to pricing and cost hedging in contracts. The transition to GB300, which shares a similar architecture with GB200, will be smoother, and future modular GPU add-in card designs are expected to improve yields and maintainability.

(3) Inventory remains high, reflecting long-cycle demand
Q1 inventory increased over 20% YoY due to pre-build in March, mainly resulting from the long 6–8 week lead time for GB200 servers (compared to just 2 weeks for generic servers). Management expects high inventory levels to continue for several quarters to accommodate long-cycle demand driven by liquid cooling, networking, and integration complexity.

(4) Dual growth drivers from AI and traditional servers, two-year visibility
Hon Hai’s datacenter business has two-year visibility. Management remains confident in achieving double-digit growth for both AI and general-purpose servers in 2025. Beyond AI servers, the company will also benefit from synchronized growth in smart consumer electronics and computing products.

(5) Smartphone and EV geographic expansion diversifies risk and boosts momentum
Smartphone production capacity in India and Brazil is ramping up quickly and is expected to account for 15–20% of group capacity, helping Hon Hai gain greater share in high-end smartphone assembly. The recent EV design project with Mitsubishi signals entry into traditional OEMs. If more design wins are secured, the 5% EV market share target becomes attainable.

(6) Tariff and FX headwinds make 2H outlook more cautious
The company plans to increase 2025 capex by over 20% YoY, with 60–70% allocated to expansion in India, the U.S., and Mexico. Due to front-loaded shipments and demand uncertainty in 1H, management adopts a more conservative outlook for 2H. Every NT$1 appreciation in the TWD leads to a ~3% decline in local revenue and a 0.1ppt drop in gross margin, cited as a key reason for the downward revision of Q1 guidance.


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley raising 2025 semiconductor revenue growth forecast to 14.8% on strong AI-driven memory; bullish on memory and AI/analog/equipment cyclicals.

SIA Semiconductor Revenue: May Overall Performance Exceeds Expectations, Strong Memory Drives Upward Revision of Full-Year Growth Forecast
Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 25/07/07)

Morgan Stanley notes that despite significant month-over-month declines in analog, discrete, and MCU segments, the May SIA monthly data was better than overall expectations, primarily driven by strong AI-led memory demand. The full-year revenue growth forecast has been raised from 12.9% to 14.8%.

Memory Market Shines, DRAM and NAND Both Significantly Outperform Seasonality
DRAM saw a 48.4% month-over-month increase, exceeding Morgan Stanley's 33% forecast and the five-year average of 40.7%, mainly driven by strong bit shipments. NAND increased by 37.4% month-over-month, also significantly outperforming expectations, with both bit shipments and Average Selling Price (ASP) exceeding forecasts. Morgan Stanley believes this reflects the sustained pull from AI for memory demand, potentially accompanied by some pull-in effects.

Analog, Discrete, and MCU MoM Data Significantly Below Expectations, Broad Market Softens in Short Term
In May, analog chips declined by 3.4% month-over-month, discrete devices by 10.2%, and MCUs by 5.4%, all falling below seasonal averages and estimates. This indicates that the broad market weakness was worse than expected. Despite this, Morgan Stanley still judges this trend to be a short-term anomaly, believing that relevant sectors are in the process of channel recovery for inventory replenishment.

Overall SIA Revenue MoM Growth of 9.5%, Significantly Higher Than Expected and Historical Average
Morgan Stanley's estimate was 6.2%, and the historical 10-year average was 6.3%. Regional performance showed significant divergence, with Asia Pacific and the Americas leading the growth (at +29.1% and +23.8% respectively). China and Europe showed moderate performance, while Japan experienced negative growth (-5.4%).

2025 Growth Forecast Raised to 14.8%, Primarily Due to Improved Memory Shipment and Pricing Expectations
Morgan Stanley has raised its 2025 growth forecast from 12.9% to 14.8%. The full-year upward revision is primarily attributed to the strong performance of the memory industry. Although strong performance is expected in the short term, given the record-high DRAM Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) investment, the long-term memory growth path still requires caution regarding potential challenges.

Recommended Portfolio Remains Unchanged, AI-Driven and Quality Cyclical Beneficiaries Remain Key Allocation Focus
In the phase where overall inventory shifts from destocking to restocking, Morgan Stanley maintains a positive view on AI-related companies and analog/equipment cyclical beneficiaries. Although some areas showed below-seasonal data in May, the three-month average trend remains near its annual high, supporting the recovery judgment.


Morgan Stanley maintains a positive view on AI-related companies and analog/equipment cyclical beneficiaries

US semiconductor sector proxied by SMH ETF


I personally think a short-term rebound in the stock price won't come easily

Summary: Skeptical a short-term rebound in Micron is coming; implicitly bearish near-term.

@OmerCheeema I enjoyed reading your post! That said, I personally think a short-term rebound in the stock price won’t come easily.

@Jukanlosreve I wrote an article on $MU a couple of months ago. In my model, I was expecting a ramp up to $1.5B for Micron HBM memory. Morgan Stanley is more bullish at $2.5B.

Our fair stock price estimates are similar.

Full article is here:

https://t.co/VjKCAJXeBP


NVIDIA's Growth Will Continue to Outpace ASICs

Summary: Jensen Huang argues NVIDIA's AI chip growth will outpace ASICs due to fast architecture cadence, cost reduction, and NVLink collaboration potential.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang: NVIDIA’s Growth Will Continue to Outpace ASICs

Jensen Huang explained that the reason he believes NVIDIA’s AI chips have greater growth potential than ASICs is because, while there are many ASIC projects emerging in the world, about 90% of them fail. He compared this to how new startups constantly emerge, but most of them end up failing. Even if some projects manage to avoid failure, he emphasized that sustaining them over the long term is often difficult.

In contrast, he stated that continuing NVIDIA’s growth is not particularly difficult, and that this is precisely his responsibility. Since NVIDIA develops at a very fast pace, anyone trying to build an ASIC would have to make one that’s at least better than NVIDIA’s own ASICs.

While acknowledging that market competition is indeed fierce, Huang emphasized that NVIDIA continues to optimize its architecture and is aggressively working to reduce costs. As a result, its technology is already widely adopted. He pointed out that ASIC vendors must compete not only with NVIDIA, but also with one another.

He also revealed that many companies are trying to develop semi-custom AI infrastructure and have approached NVIDIA to request access to its high-speed GPU interconnect technology, NVLink. NVIDIA welcomes this, he said, and sees potential benefit from such collaborations.

https://t.co/IyaxQCdvD2


Summary: Expects strong performance from Broadcom going forward.

I expect strong performance from AVGO.

$AVGO https://t.co/FKflGg9LYQ


Summary: JP Morgan Overweight Samsung, SK Hynix; prefers Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Hanmi on HBM/DDR5/3D NAND equipment cycle into 2026.

Semiconductor Equipment / Foundry: Marginal Improvement in Industry Sentiment
 JP Morgan (J. Kwon, May 20, 2025)

1QCY25 results and outlook indicate that as chip stacking and process node evolution continues, demand for testing high-performance memory such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and DDR5 is rising sharply. This is driving stable to mid-single-digit growth in both front-end and back-end testing and wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) markets. While the WFE market is projected to reach approximately $100 billion for the full year 2025 with a broadly optimistic outlook for 2026, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties—especially tariffs—in 2H25 remain key concerns. We prefer Samsung Electronics (SEC), SK Hynix, Tokyo Electron, Advantest, and Hanmi to capture long-term structural opportunities.

• WFE Market: Solid Growth Momentum

• Leading manufacturers forecast the 2025 WFE market at $99–110 billion, indicating stable to mid-single-digit growth.

• Leading equipment vendors (LAM, KLA) are optimistic about continued adoption by leading foundries and logic fabs. Tokyo Electron expects double-digit growth in 2026.

• DRAM and NAND together are projected to account for around 35% of WFE demand, with DRAM growing to 20% due to HBM and DDR5 transitions, and NAND reaching 10%.

• HBM and Substrate Testing Ramping Up

• Front-end equipment suppliers like KLA and TEL classify HBM as a testing-intensive technology, benefiting from increased stacking layers and stricter quality control.

• Back-end testing equipment vendors (Advantest, Hanmi) report a significant increase in demand for HBM-related tools, with orders expected to continue releasing through 2H25.

• Applied Materials forecasts over 40% YoY revenue growth from HBM and DDR5 customers in 2025, reflecting surging demand for high-value-added memory process equipment.

• DRAM Technology Evolution Drives Equipment Refresh

• ASML is promoting broader use of EUV to simplify DRAM multi-patterning to single exposure, improving efficiency and output.

• LAM Research (LRCX) has made breakthroughs in etch technology, with its Akara system adopted for critical applications by major DRAM makers.

• ASMI sees increased demand for ALD and epitaxy tools due to high-k metal gate processes and future 4F² or vertical channel transistor adoption.

• NAND Demand Driven by Technology Transition

• LRCX’s ALTUS Halo system advances atomic layer deposition (ALD) for 3D NAND inter-layer technology, enabling low-resistance interconnects for 256+ layers.

• 3xx/4xx-layer NAND processes are expected to be adopted gradually over the next 3–5 years, driving a new round of equipment upgrades.

• Tokyo Electron has secured new orders in NAND channel etch and low-temperature dry etch, expecting 2026 NAND investments to focus on brownfield upgrades and capacity enhancement.

• Macro and Tariff Risk Mitigation

• While direct tariff impact is limited, the industry is closely watching potential disruptions to end-customer purchasing patterns and CapEx decisions.

• Major equipment vendors are strengthening supply chain diversification and regionalization to improve geopolitical risk resilience.

• Test equipment vendors like Advantest and Teradyne state that HPC and AI markets are relatively insulated from tariffs but continue to monitor macro demand shifts closely.

• China Market Developments
• China contributed 27% of total sales in 1Q25, down from 38% in 2024. ASML remains most optimistic, forecasting over 25% of its sales from China.

• LRCX, KLA, and AMAT all reported reduced spending in China on DRAM and mature logic nodes, though capacity build-out continues for 28nm and above.

• ASMI reported strong margins in China, and Teradyne saw a slight increase in local customer share. Overall demand in the China market is expected to gradually stabilize.

• Investment Recommendations and Catalysts

• We maintain an Overweight rating on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, as valuation risks are low and fundamentals are expected to improve.

• In the SPE (semiconductor production equipment) sector, we prefer Advantest and Tokyo Electron, which are set to benefit from equipment growth driven by HBM, DDR5, and 3D NAND technologies.

• Medium-term catalysts include:
1. Progress in 2026 equipment order negotiations among major manufacturers,
2. Tariff resolution developments, and
3. Expansion of AI accelerated computing demand.


we prefer Advantest and Tokyo Electron, which are set to benefit from equipment growth driven by HBM, DDR5, and 3D NAND technologies.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'


Summary: Shares TSMC's own bullish forecast: mid-40% CAGR over 5 years driven by AI accelerators and broad 2nm adoption.

Taiwanese media reports that TSMC is optimistic about AI accelerators driving its revenue growth, forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the mid-40% range over the next five years starting in 2024. It is also expected that the following chips will be manufactured using TSMC’s 2nm process:

1. Apple M6 Mac chip, A20 (2026)
2. Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Elite 3 (2026)
3. MediaTek Dimensity 9600 (2026)
4. AMD EPYC server processor (2026)
5. Fujitsu TSMC 2nm AI CPU
6. Microsoft MAIA 300 (2026)
7. AWS Trainium 4 (2027)
8. Google TPU v8p/e (2027)

Rumor: The price per wafer for TSMC’s 2nm process is $30,000, and the A14 process could reach as high as $45,000.

$TSM
https://t.co/nsPkXwU35h


Summary: TSMC Arizona Fab 2 accelerating; wafer price hikes of 3-5% expected next year plus 10%+ on US fab quotes; supply chain benefits flow through.

Report: 3nm Process on Track! TSMC's US Fab 2 to Start Early, Specialty Gas and Chemical Firms See Upside

To meet growing customer demand for US manufacturing, TSMC is accelerating construction at its Arizona fabs! Supply chain sources reveal that Fab 2 (P2), planned for 3nm advanced process configurations, began construction in April 2025. The overall timeline currently shows signs of acceleration, with equipment installation anticipated in Q3 2026 and a push for online production in 2027. The fab construction speed is being compressed to approximately two years, operating at full throttle to meet customer demand.

With TSMC's Arizona Fab 2 commencing construction in April, supply chain analysis suggests that TSMC is actively cooperating to meet customer demand and address US government tariffs, leading to an accelerated overall timeline. Equipment move-in could happen as early as September next year, with the first wafer output expected in 2027. Equipment vendors admit that after fab construction is complete, internal facility operations still require about two years for adjustment and configuration. In terms of fab construction speed, TSMC's actions are already very fast.

Supply chain sources indicate that TSMC's acceleration benefits Taiwanese facility engineering firms like United Integrated Services (UIS) and Marketech International Corp. (MIC), as they have accumulated learning experience from constructing Fab 1 (P1), which is expected to improve long-term profitability.
Supply chain vendors also revealed that they will begin entering the fab after mid-year to cooperate with TSMC's US P2 project. Specialty gas and chemical segments are also expected to receive North American orders sequentially, with institutional investors optimistic about companies like Topco Scientific and Sunshine Chem.
However, advanced packaging will still rely on Taiwanese capacity. Institutional investors judge that despite TSMC's declaration to invest in two advanced packaging fabs in the US, related evaluations, including human resources and factory permits, require time. Arizona AP1 (the first advanced packaging fab) is expected to break ground at the earliest in Q3 next year and will primarily focus on SoIC (System-on-Integrated-Chips). In other words, CoWoS will still need to be shipped back to Taiwan for production.

Fab construction cannot be completed overnight. Facility engineering firms estimate that due to the massive scale planned for the US fabs, only partial progress can be made to the perfected stage, with most fabs unable to fully come online and begin production before 2029. With international conditions and industry cycles continuously changing during the construction period, institutional investors anticipate that TSMC will raise wafer prices again by 3% to 5% next year to reflect construction costs and strong AI demand, while US fab quotations will see adjustments exceeding 10%.
Taiwan's importance remains irreplaceable. From TSMC's strategic layout, nine new fabs and 11 production lines are simultaneously under construction this year, especially the upcoming 2nm production and the highly demanded advanced packaging capacity, all of which are progressing concurrently.
Relevant industry sources reveal that TSMC's Kaohsiung 2nm Fab F22 Fab 2 will move in equipment in Q3 2025, followed by the completion of Fab 3 in Q1 2026. Advanced process research and development continue, and judging by the fab construction timelines, production will first take place in Taiwan.

$TSM

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https://t.co/LjOWDLZ7UR


Summary: Bullish ASML on continued EUV intensity ramp and 1000W source power milestone; bullish ASMI as sole vertically integrated ALD leader.

BofA) Expert Call with Former Intel Lithography and Foundry Executive

Yesterday, we hosted an expert call with Klaus Shuegraf, currently VP at Photonic and formerly Director of Lithography Sourcing and VP of Foundry Strategy & Planning at Intel.

1. EUV Source Power and Increasing Lithographic Intensity Expected to Continue

Shuegraf acknowledged that the transition from N3 to N2 nodes does not significantly shrink feature sizes due to the Gate-All-Around (GAA) structure. However, he projected that lithographic intensity will continue to increase for nodes beyond that. He expressed confidence in ASML achieving 1000W source power from the current 600W, but noted that reaching 1500W would approach technical limitations.

2. 18A Node Outlook and High-NA Adoption Timing

In line with industry trends, Shuegraf stated that Intel must first prove the viability of its 18A node through its own products before attracting potential customers such as AVGO (Broadcom), NVDA (Nvidia), and AAPL (Apple M-series). He predicted that 2026 would be the mainstream ramp-up period for 18A, which would be about one year behind TSMC’s 2nm node production schedule. Regarding High-NA EUV, he noted that TSMC’s full adoption would likely be in the late 2020s, as it will take time for ASML to scale up production capacity.

3. Potential Expansion of EUV Adoption in DRAM

Shuegraf suggested that if leading HBM suppliers adopt EUV, it could drive broader EUV adoption across the DRAM industry. This is due to trends such as AI PCs and advanced packaging making DRAM a more specialized, rather than purely commoditized, product segment. While some customers may be able to maintain current lithographic intensity levels through 4F2 architecture, others are expected to adopt additional litho layers alongside 4F2.

4. Additional Notes on China and ALD

(A) Regarding China’s development of EUV using DPP (Discharge Produced Plasma), Shuegraf acknowledged that for AI use cases, high wafer throughput is not always essential. However, he commented that DPP is economically inefficient and presents challenges in supply availability.

(B) On the topic of ALD (Atomic Layer Deposition), he emphasized that ASMI remains the leading player due to its position as the only vertically integrated vendor with an in-house chemical supply chain.


ASMI remains the leading player due to its position as the only vertically integrated vendor with an in-house chemical supply chain

ASM International Amsterdam; US OTC ADR ASMIY


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley bullish note: GB200 shipments accelerating toward Q2 target of 5k-6k units; Giga-Byte top pick among AI server ODMs, followed by Hon Hai, Quanta, Wistron, Wiwynn.

NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 May Shipments: Accelerating Continuously, 2Q Target Within Reach
Morgan Stanley (S. Shih, 2025/06/09)

Morgan Stanley estimates that GB200 rack shipments in May rose significantly month-over-month to 2,000–2,500 units. If this momentum continues in June, the total for Q2 is expected to reach 5,000–6,000 units.
• Quanta: Stable Increment
Morgan Stanley estimates Quanta’s May revenue at approximately NT$160 billion (MoM +4%, YoY +58%), driven by 3.8 million NB shipments (MoM +15%) and around 400 GB200 rack shipments. Rack shipments rose slightly from April’s 300–400 units.
• Wistron: Significant Ramp-Up
Morgan Stanley estimates Wistron’s May revenue at NT$208.4 billion (MoM +56%, YoY +162%), with cumulative April–May revenue accounting for 76%–79% of the estimated Q2 total. Strong shipments in NB (+6%), DT (+47%), and monitors (+7%), along with Wiwynn’s May revenue of approximately NT$71 billion (+11%), drove GB200-equivalent rack shipments in May to 900–1,000 units, a nearly 6-fold increase from April’s ~150 units.
• Hon Hai: Slight Decline from High Base
Based on supply chain checks, Morgan Stanley notes that Hon Hai’s cloud and networking business saw a slight decline in May due to a high base and unfavorable FX conditions. However, GB200 rack shipments still reached nearly 1,000 units. Looking ahead to Q2, Hon Hai is expected to ship a total of 3,000–4,000 units.
• OEM/ODM Preference Ranking
Morgan Stanley highlights that among downstream AI server OEM/ODMs, Giga-Byte is rated the “top pick” for its stable deliveries and strong price-performance ratio; followed by Hon Hai, Quanta, Wistron, and Wiwynn, in that order.

$NVDA


Giga-Byte is rated the 'top pick' for its stable deliveries and strong price-performance ratio


followed by Hon Hai, Quanta, Wistron, and Wiwynn, in that order


Quanta Computer listed on TWSE as 2382.TW


Summary: Bearish AAPL: US blocking Chinese AI on iPhone accelerates China sales decline, echoing Samsung's exit trajectory.

@kyleichan Absolutely. If the U.S. blocks China’s AI from being integrated into the iPhone, it will only accelerate the decline of iPhone sales in China, likely leading Apple to follow the same path as Samsung.

The US wants to block Apple from running Alibaba’s AI models on iPhones in China, according to the New York Times.

I think blocking iPhones from using Chinese AI models will eventually make the iPhone irrelevant in China where Chinese smartphone makers are expanding AI features. https://t.co/rX2zXQDXY8


Summary: JPM: GB300 Bianca switch is positive for ASPEED and Foxconn, negative for Wistron on OAM/UBB board content loss.

ASPEED Technology listed on TWSE as 6674.TW (BMC supplier)

JPM’s report on GB200/GB300

Nvidia Returns to Bianca Design for GB300

We previously pointed out that GB300 was delayed due to changes in board design. To accelerate GB300 growth, Nvidia plans to switch back from the Cordelia board to the Bianca board and delay Cordelia’s adoption until Vera-Rubin. However, this may require additional testing and could result in delays in board-level mass production. We expect board mass production to begin between July and August, with GB300 systems entering mass production in November.

The design change for GB300 impacts various components as follows:

• Positive for BMC supplier ASPEED: GB200 features higher BMC content compared to GB300 (1–2 BMCs per system for GB200, vs. 1 for GB300). Although there are concerns that GB300 compute boards may integrate HMC and SCM modules, we believe customers will stick with the original design to accelerate the ramp-up.

• Negative for OAM/UBB manufacturers (Foxconn, Wistron): The Bianca board integrates two boards, resulting in lower OAM/UBB board content compared to Cordelia’s separate OAM/UBB boards. Previously, we expected Wistron to gain some market share with Cordelia, but with the switch back to Bianca for GB300, Foxconn is likely to remain the primary compute board supplier this year.

• Negative for socket suppliers: The adoption of LGA GPU and memory CAMM sockets has been canceled.

• Negative for cold plate and quick-disconnect (QD) suppliers: Bianca compute boards feature significantly less QD and cold plate content compared to Cordelia (approximately threefold difference).

• Neutral for power supply suppliers: GB300 consumes slightly more power than GB200 (1.4kW for the B300 GPU vs. 1.2kW for the B200 GPU). However, we haven’t seen changes in PSU specifications between GB300 and GB200. Steady growth in GB racks could benefit Delta’s power and thermal revenue in the coming quarters.

Meanwhile, we expect GB200 shipments to continue increasing in 2H 2025 due to improved yields. Given strong customer demand, we anticipate customers will increase GB200 orders in the second half of 2025. Overall, we project the shipment ratio of GB200/300 systems this year to be approximately 80%/20%.


Foxconn is likely to remain the primary compute board supplier this year

Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) 2317.TW Taiwan


Negative for OAM/UBB manufacturers (Foxconn, Wistron): The Bianca board integrates two boards, resulting in lower OAM/UBB board content


Summary: Shares NVIDIA price hike news; implied bullish on margin/revenue uplift.


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley analysis implying NVDA European revenue 8x+ by 2026 with 150%+ growth rate; bullish outlook adopted.

Morgan Stanley analysts made the following assumptions in their review report of NVIDIA's European GTC:

If Hopper chips (approximately $22,000 each) are exclusively used in the European market in 2024, and then transitioned entirely to Blackwell chips (approximately $18,000 each) in 2026, this would imply an over 8-fold increase in Nvidia's European market revenue in 2026 compared to 2024. The analyst further projected that the annual growth rate in 2026 alone could exceed 150%.

$NVDA


Summary: Bullish MRVL: AI market upwardly revised 26%, ASIC market ~$41B by 2028 at ~50% CAGR plus ecosystem at ~90% CAGR.

Summary of the Marvell Event

At the Marvell event, the 2028 AI market size was revised upward by 26% compared to previous estimates:
• 2028 data center CAPEX: $1 trillion
• AI accelerators (GPU + ASIC): $349 billion
• 2028 ASIC + related ecosystem market size: $55.4 billion
• Of that, ASIC alone: $40.8 billion (2023–2028 CAGR of approximately 50%)
• ASIC-related ecosystem: $14.6 billion (2023–2028 CAGR of approximately 90%)


valuation is expected to be revised upwards… Morgan Stanley… maintained its target price of NT$1,288… TSMC's 2026 USD revenue will grow by 20% year-over-year… Leading process technology, customer stickiness, and AI trends jointly support its long-term growth prospects

Summary: Shares/endorses Morgan Stanley Overweight on TSMC: three uncertainties resolved, 20% 2026 revenue growth, NT$1,288 PT maintained despite TWD FX headwind; valuation re-rate expected.

TSMC: Three Major Uncertainties Resolved, AI-Driven Growth Continues, Valuation Expected to Re-rate Under Exchange Rate Influence

Morgan Stanley (C. Chan, 2025/06/15)

Driven by strong and continuous AI demand and price increases, despite the appreciation of the TWD compressing gross margins, TSMC's fundamentals remain robust, with sustainable growth projected for 2026, and valuation is expected to be revised upwards.

Three major uncertainties gradually resolved, TSMC stock price rebounds significantly.

TSMC's stock price has risen by 31% in the past three months, mainly due to the denial of Intel JV rumors, confirmed strong AI demand, and easing tariff concerns. Despite this, some investors still question why its performance lags behind NVIDIA (which rose 53% during the same period). Morgan Stanley believes the impact of TWD appreciation on gross margin is a key influencing factor.

Exchange rate appreciation impacts TSMC's gross margin, potentially leading to a 6% EPS cut for 2025.

Management noted at the shareholder meeting that every 1% TWD appreciation will compress gross margin by 40bps. The current 8-10% appreciation could result in a gross margin impact of over 3%, leading to a revision of 2H25 gross margin from the original forecast of 58-59% down to 55-56%. Morgan Stanley thus lowered its 2025/26 EPS forecasts by 6% and 12% respectively, but maintained its target price of NT$1,288, pointing out that TWD appreciation has historically led to PE expansion and increased QFII holdings.

2026 revenue expected to grow by 20%, Capex flat at US$40 billion.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that, benefiting from 1) 30-40% growth in cloud AI semiconductor revenue; 2) Intel outsourcing NovaLake CPU and GPU to TSMC 2nm; 3) potential orders for China-specific AI GPUs (e.g., B30); 4) a global average wafer price increase of 3-5%, with US fabs seeing up to 10% increases; and 5) 2nm capacity expansion to 90kwpm, TSMC's 2026 USD revenue will grow by 20% year-over-year, with capital expenditure maintained at US$40 billion.

Robust AI growth momentum, active 2nm expansion pace supports future growth.

Morgan Stanley emphasizes that strong 2nm demand in 2026 will drive TSMC to continue significant capacity expansion, with full-year Capex including 20kwpm for US 3nm capacity. Although some investors worry about capacity and capital expenditure scale, TSMC's global pricing power and customer demand structure support its expansion logic. Leading process technology, customer stickiness, and AI trends jointly support its long-term growth prospects.


I still don't recommend Qualcomm stock. It's way overvalued.

Summary: Short QCOM: overvalued and facing 10-15% chip price erosion as Xiaomi's in-house Xring chip pressures Snapdragon pricing, similar to Apple's modem displacement.

I don’t understand why my friends are so dismissive of Xiaomi’s in-house chip. They say things like, “Qualcomm signed a multi-year deal with Xiaomi, so what’s the point of Xiaomi’s own chip?”

But this is what I want to say. Qualcomm said something similar about Apple’s modem.

In an interview this past March, Cristiano Amon emphasized that Qualcomm would continue supplying modems to Apple. But unfortunately, starting with the iPhone 18, it’s highly likely that almost all models will feature Apple’s own modem.

I believe what Amon says is just meant to reassure shareholders.

To say that Xiaomi’s in-house chip has no impact is obviously a lie. Why else would Xiaomi push so hard to reach flagship-level performance? It’s to lower the price they pay for Qualcomm’s flagship Snapdragon chips.

Take Samsung as an example—by using Exynos, Samsung is estimated to have saved as much as $20–30 per chip compared to the prices Chinese OEMs pay for Qualcomm chips.

That’s clearly what Xiaomi wants too. I expect Xiaomi will be able to cut Qualcomm’s chip prices by about 10–15% through Xring. In other words, Qualcomm will earn that much less.

I still don’t recommend Qualcomm stock. It’s way overvalued.

---

Link:
1. https://t.co/ORB5hJWtTB

2.
https://t.co/Cp4tHh2AnV


AMD's server market share surged further to 39.4%, with expectations to easily surpass 40% for the full year… AMD is confident it will capture 50% of the server processor market in 2026

Summary: AMD gaining server share (39.4% → 50% by 2026) at Intel's expense as supply chains shift and TSMC partnership widens process advantage.

Report: AMD nears 40% server market share in 1Q25, poised to match Intel in 2026

In 2017, AMD held nearly zero market share in the server processor segment. After CEO Lisa Su implemented a comprehensive platform strategy overhaul, AMD set ambitious goals for annual market share growth. This effort led to reaching 25% in 2023 and soaring to a new high of 33% in 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, AMD's server market share surged further to 39.4%, with expectations to easily surpass 40% for the full year.

Supply chain sources reveal that AMD is confident it will capture 50% of the server processor market in 2026, establishing a competitive balance with Intel.

Record-breaking quarter across all segments
According to Mercury Research's first quarter 2025 report, AMD has demonstrated strong growth in cloud and enterprise markets, achieving a record 39.4% revenue market share in servers. Additionally, driven by Ryzen channel sales and AI PC demand, its client-side market share also shows robust expansion.

AMD's server revenue market share in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 6.5% year-over-year and 3.1% quarter-over-quarter, reaching 39.4%. Client product revenue market share grew 10.2% year-over-year and 2.7% quarter-over-quarter, hitting 26.5%.

Desktop product revenue market share rose sharply by 15.2% year-over-year and 6.4% quarter-over-quarter. Notebook product revenue market share increased by 7.3% year-over-year and 0.5% quarter-over-quarter. Overall revenue market share expanded by 9% compared to the same period in 2024 and 2.9% quarter-over-quarter, reaching 31.6%.

Financial performance exceeds expectations
AMD reported revenue of US$7.44 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up 36% year-over-year, with net income soaring to US$709 million from US$123 million in the same quarter of 2024. Gross margin stood at 50%. The data center business unit generated US$3.7 billion in revenue, growing 57% year-over-year, fueled by increased sales of Epyc CPUs and Instinct GPUs.

Growth across server, notebook, and desktop platform processors has been key to AMD's revenue increase.

Cautious optimism amid geopolitical headwinds
Looking ahead to the second quarter and full year of 2025, AMD expects second-quarter revenue to remain roughly the same as the first quarter while maintaining an overall growth trajectory. However, AMD cautioned that US AI chip export restrictions on China could reduce its 2025 revenue by US$1.5 billion.

Since 2019, with TSMC's support, AMD has significantly improved performance, yield, and time-to-market across server and other platforms. Meanwhile, Intel continues to face supply shortages due to process delays, prompting supply chains to increasingly favor AMD products.

The path to processor parity
Industry sources note that AMD's server platform emphasizes high cost-performance, gaining increasing market acceptance. Its market share has climbed from near zero to almost 40% and continues to rise. Expansion in notebook and desktop segments is breaking Intel's near-monopoly, with the potential to reach parity by 2026 and possibly surpass Intel within three years. Beyond AMD's technological and strategic enhancements, a critical factor is its partnership with TSMC for advanced 7-nanometer and below manufacturing processes.

On June 13, 2025, Taiwan time, AMD will hold its "AMD Advancing AI 2025" conference in San Jose, featuring participation from major customers and supply chain leaders.

$AMD $INTC

---

https://t.co/j3tjKm3qLE


Intel continues to face supply shortages due to process delays, prompting supply chains to increasingly favor AMD products… breaking Intel's near-monopoly


We maintain our "Buy" ratings on both SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics (SEC).

Summary: Goldman reiterates Buy on SK Hynix and Samsung on accelerating DRAM ASP growth from HBM3E ramp and rising NAND prices in Q2-Q3 2025.

Goldman Sachs Korea Technology: May 2025 Memory Price Trends

Q2 Price Outlook Largely Maintained; Commodity DRAM in Line with GSe Forecasts

Compared to last month, TrendForce’s outlook for Q2 2025 prices (Commodity DRAM: +3–8% QoQ; NAND: +3–8%) remains largely unchanged. When compared with GSe (Goldman Sachs estimates), the commodity DRAM forecast is broadly in line, while the NAND outlook is more optimistic. Although the outlook for Q3 2025 remains fluid, we expect Korean companies to see an acceleration in DRAM ASP growth, driven by the full-scale ramp-up of 12-layer HBM3E production. Meanwhile, the price increase for commodity DRAM may moderate. We maintain our “Buy” ratings on both SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics (SEC).

DRAM:
• Q2: Despite a sharp price spike in legacy DDR4 (which has a smaller market share), PC and server DRAM prices are expected to rise 3–8% overall. This has narrowed the price gap with next-generation DDR5.
• Q3: As high-value HBM3E enters full-scale production, overall DRAM ASP growth is expected to accelerate. However, the price increase for commodity DRAM could slightly decelerate.

NAND Flash:
• Q2: Prices are expected to rise 3–8% QoQ. Notably, outlooks for PC and mobile NAND have been revised upward.
• Q3: Driven by solid demand for server SSDs, the projected price increase has been revised up from 0–5% to 5–10%.


Summary: Shares/adopts MS Underweight on Foxconn Tech: revenue surge not translating to profits, front-loaded performance risk, low-value assembly constraints.

industry='Electronics & Computer Distribution'

Foxconn: Switch 2 Drives Revenue Surge, Limited Profit Elasticity, Front-End Sales Possibly Overly Concentrated
Morgan Stanley (S. Shih, 25/06/12)

Switch 2's sales exceeded 3.5 million units within the first four days of its launch. Foxconn Tech's revenue for 1H25 tripled year-on-year due to inventory stocking, but profit only increased by 21%, indicating that the assembly business is more sensitive to revenue than profitability.

Switch 2 Assembly and Supply

Foxconn Tech is the exclusive contract manufacturer for Switch 2, responsible for producing metal parts and thermal modules; its inventory preparation began late last year, possibly to pre-empt rising tariffs.

Revenue and Profit Divergence

Consolidated operating revenue in 1H25 increased by approximately 200% compared to the same period last year, but net profit only grew by 21% because BoM (Bill of Materials) costs increased while service fees remained unchanged, preventing Foxconn Tech from sharing in the benefits of economies of scale.

Early Performance Driven by High-End User Pre-orders

Switch 2's initial launch was stronger than Switch 1's, primarily due to purchases by core gamers; if subsequent demand from casual users falls short of expectations, Foxconn Tech's performance this year may be significantly front-loaded.

Profit Margins Under Pressure

While assembly projects bring substantial revenue, Foxconn Tech finds it difficult to achieve a corresponding increase in profit due to low added value and cost structure constraints.

Investment Rating and Risk Warning

Given the potentially highly front-loaded performance and insufficient profit conversion, Morgan Stanley maintains its "Underweight" rating on Foxconn Tech; future attention should be paid to the sustained sales and gross profit margin of Switch 2.


Summary: Shares brokerage reiterating Nvidia, TSMC, and Gigabyte as top picks; NVL72 shipment forecast raised to 25–30K units, B300 demand growing.

AI Supply Chain Tracking Report:

The U.S.-based global tech team reiterates Nvidia, TSMC, and GIGABYTE as their current top picks.

Currently, shipments are focused on HGX racks. Following Computex, the brokerage has revised up its shipment forecast for NVL72 to 25,000–30,000 units this year. However, the brokerage sees the ultimate target as “1,000 units per week,” implying over 10,000 units in the coming quarter. They suggest closely monitoring the monthly revenue trends of Taiwan’s supply chain companies as a result.

The brokerage maintains its forecast of 390,000 units for CoWoS-L this year.

Finally, it sees the B30 shipped outside of China as equivalent to the RTX PRO 6000, with an estimated volume of 500,000 units, and notes that demand continues to grow.

6/3 外電整理

6274台燿：亞系升目標,
亞系券商上修25-27年EPS至$11.3/$14.6/$17.4，給予明年17xPE評價，同步升目標，現在僅交易在11xPE。


Summary: LG Display set to gain iPhone share as BOE fails LTPO qual tests; BOE faces structural exclusion from iPhone 17+ supply chain.

Report: China's BOE's Approval for Apple's Successor Products Unclear… Will Korean Displays Benefit?

LG Display's decision to concentrate its new investment capacity of 1.26 trillion Korean Won on 6th-generation small and medium-sized organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) is drawing attention. This is because small and medium-sized OLEDs, primarily smartphone panels, are considered a red ocean, making it difficult to undertake investment without a clear demand source.

Industry speculation suggests that LG Display may have already reached a strategic agreement with Apple, including securing commitments for future iPhone panel supply volumes.

According to industry sources on the 18th, China's BOE has yet to pass the quality test for LTPO OLEDs for Apple's premium smartphone model, the 'iPhone 16 Pro'. The iPhone 16 Pro is equipped with LTPO (Low-Temperature Polycrystalline Oxide) OLED, a display capable of low-power operation.

Apple has so far applied LTPO OLED only to iPhone Pro models, but from the upcoming iPhone 17 series, scheduled for release in the second half of this year, this panel will be installed across all models. For this reason, BOE's entry into the iPhone 16 Pro supply chain is considered a preliminary hurdle to gauge its entry into subsequent models. If BOE fails the test, Apple's long-maintained 3-vendor (Samsung Display, LG Display, BOE) supply chain will narrow to a 2-vendor system.

An industry official explained, "While Samsung Display and LG Display have already started mass production of panels for the iPhone 17, BOE is struggling, failing to even pass the qual test for the preceding iPhone 16 Pro." They added, "LTPO is highly difficult in terms of low-power driver design and oxide TFT uniformity."

As BOE struggles with the qual test, the iPhone panel volumes it previously handled are expected to be transferred to LG Display. According to market research firm Omdia, BOE's total OLED share in the iPhone 16 series last year was in the late 10%. In the same survey, Samsung Display accounted for over 50%, and LG Display was in the early 30% range.

The industry anticipates that display volumes for this year's iPhone 17 series will be allocated to Samsung Display and LG Display at a 6:4 ratio, respectively. Furthermore, even if BOE succeeds in entering the iPhone 17 supply chain, it will likely be challenging for it to stably enter the technically more advanced iPhone 18 and 19 series.

According to major US media, Apple is highly likely to introduce its first foldable model with advanced LTPO technology starting with the iPhone 18 series. Samsung Display and LG Display have been strengthening their 'LTPO+' panel capabilities since last year, which is expected to further widen the technological gap with BOE.

An industry official stated, "Even if BOE secures some volume in the iPhone 17 series, it's hard to see them continuing to enter subsequent generations." They added, "There's talk in the industry that LG Display has pre-coordinated a certain level of demand from Apple."

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https://t.co/o5pNv0jCfl


Even if BOE secures some volume in the iPhone 17 series, it's hard to see them continuing to enter subsequent generations

BOE Technology Group 200725.SZ Shenzhen B-share


Summary: Shares Goldman Sachs bullish thesis on optical module sector: raised estimates up to 42%, target prices 23-82%, 800G volumes up 10-58% vs prior forecasts; stocks still undervalued.

Optical modules basket: Coherent, Lumentum, Ciena, AAOI

Goldman Sachs: AI Technology's Rapid Advance Drives Increased Integration of AI Chips and Optical Modules, Fueling Industry Growth

As AI technology rapidly advances, the integration of AI chips and optical modules continues to increase, acting as a key growth driver for the optical module industry.

 * The trend of increasing optical modules used per AI chip is significantly boosting the industry's mid-to-long-term growth potential. Notably, the projected shipments for 800G optical modules in 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 19.9 million and 33.5 million units, respectively, representing increases of 10% and 58% from previous forecasts. Consequently, the market size is expected to grow by 60% and 52% during the same periods.

 * Reflecting this projected increase in demand, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2025-2027 net income estimates for covered optical module companies upward by up to 42%, and their target prices by 23-82%. This clearly indicates high confidence in the industry's outlook.

 * The core reason for this trend is the continuous increase in the number of optical modules required per GPU or ASIC chip in AI servers. For example, NVIDIA's H100 typically required 3 optical modules, but the next-generation B300 will require 4.5, and some ASIC chips are evolving to demand as many as 8 modules. This is rapidly accelerating the demand for high-speed optical modules.

* Although optical module-related stocks have already rebounded from their April lows, their current stock prices are still considered undervalued. Furthermore, the valuation gap among industry-leading companies is likely to narrow significantly in the future.


Summary: Bullish copper long-term: PwC report implies it becomes a strategic material as climate-driven supply disruptions worsen through 2035–2050.

The PwC report, in essence, suggests that copper will also become a 'strategic material' like rare earth elements. That's how I interpret it.

To summarize parts of the report:

Increased Copper Supply Risk: Most of the 17 countries supplying copper to the semiconductor industry are expected to face drought risks by 2035. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, is already grappling with water shortages that are slowing down production. Currently, 25% of Chile's copper output is at risk of supply disruptions, rising to 75% within a decade and to 90-100% by 2050.

Importance of Copper: Copper is essential for making billions of tiny wires inside every chip's circuit, and currently, there is no match for its price and performance.

Long-term Outlook: The report warns that the risk will only increase over time if innovation in materials does not adapt to climate change, and a more secure water supply is not developed in the affected countries. Regardless of global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, approximately half of each country's copper supply is projected to be at risk by 2050.

Mention of Past Cases: The report cited the previous global chip shortage (fueled by a pandemic-driven demand spike coinciding with factory shutdowns), which cost the U.S. economy a full percentage point in GDP growth and Germany 2.4%, emphasizing the potential economic impact of copper supply disruptions.

It's quite a striking coincidence that on the very day Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper, PwC released a report stating that global semiconductor production could be destabilized by copper supply disruptions due to climate change.

Given this, should one invest in copper https://t.co/X2qwlaGGob


Summary: Morgan Stanley Equal-weight on MRVL (key AI beneficiary but execution risk); prefers NVDA and AVGO over MRVL near-term.

Marvell: AI Custom Chip Opportunity is Real, But Growth Execution is More Closely Watched Than Long-Term Targets

Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 06/18/25)

Marvell's vision in the AI custom chip space is impressive. However, despite raised long-term expectations, the market is more focused on seeing near-term revenue materialization. Overall, Marvell should still be considered a key beneficiary of AI infrastructure.

Raised Datacenter Market TAM and Introduced New "XPU attach" Concept, Targeting $19B in Revenue

Marvell has raised its 2028 AI Datacenter Total Addressable Market (TAM) forecast to $94 billion, targeting a 20% market share. The newly proposed "XPU attach" concept covers custom networking, memory, co-processor, and other chips that support custom XPU chips, with a combined TAM of $55.4 billion. Marvell projects its revenue from AI datacenters to reach $19 billion by 2028, with $11 billion coming from XPU compute and attach.

Added 6 XPU-related Sockets, Bringing Total Designs to 18; Project Funnel Reaches $75B

The company disclosed two new XPU accelerator projects and four XPU attach sockets, with customers including two "emerging hyperscalers." It has now won a cumulative 18 socket designs. Meanwhile, the custom chip project pipeline exceeds 50 projects across 10 customers, with a potential total lifetime revenue of $75 billion. XPU-type projects account for about one-third of this, with a scale of several billion dollars, while attach projects typically last 2 to 4 years and contribute several hundred million dollars in revenue.

AI Chip Customization Platform is Well-Developed, But Differentiation from Competitors like AVGO is Limited

The institution believes that while Marvell's IP portfolio (e.g., SRAM, SERDES, advanced packaging) is strong, it is not exclusive to the industry. Competitors like Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD also possess world-class capabilities, and AVGO has superior experience in actual mass production, such as with TPUs. Nevertheless, the market for AI custom chips is vast, and AVGO's exclusivity with certain customers still provides Marvell with opportunities to enter the market.

Market Sentiment is Cautious; Investors Focus on Revenue Materialization, Not Another Long-Term Guidance Hike

The institution notes that several past analyst days have featured lofty targets that were not met (e.g., 5G, ARM server chips, the 2023 AI day). Although this announcement is positive, against the backdrop of weaker-than-expected performance in the first half of 2025, investors would rather see revenue materialize than another upward revision of the 2028 forecast. In comparison, the institution still prefers NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO), maintaining its "Equal-weight" rating on Marvell.

Growth Inflection Point May Appear in 2026; Progress on Maia and Trainium 3 Remains in Focus

Microsoft has confirmed that its Maia project is developing well, while it remains debated whether Marvell is leading the XPU for AWS's Trainium 3. Even if it is an XPU attach rather than the core XPU, the project could still drive growth in the partnership with AWS and potentially have higher profit margins. Overall, the majority of Marvell's projects are expected to enter the mass production cycle between 2026 and 2027.


the institution still prefers NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO)


Morgan Stanley believes demand is significantly exceeding expectations… leading to potential sharp earnings upside

Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley bullish thesis: NVDA demand ahead of consensus with sharp EPS upside potential; MRVL tech edge intact; AVGO AI/networking strength; sector recovery by Q4.

Semiconductor Weekly: AI & Networking Face Supply-Demand Bottlenecks — NVDA & AVGO Under Short-Term Pressure, But Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong
Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, June 2, 2025)

Leading players like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) maintain a strong competitive edge in AI and networking, and while short-term challenges persist due to supply-demand imbalances and policy risks, their long-term growth trajectories remain robust.

⸻

• NVIDIA $NVDA
• Q1 results exceeded expectations, with strong revenue outside of China,
• Networking business has rebounded,
• And the rack server supply chain is steadily scaling.
• While export controls to China have raised market concerns,
→ The company has not shown meaningful signs of slowing,
→ Although it did not issue clear guidance for 2H25,
→ Morgan Stanley believes demand is significantly exceeding expectations.
• As rack supply bottlenecks ease,
→ Supply for the “Bianca” card (next-gen AI accelerator) will likely tighten,
→ Leading to potential sharp earnings upside.

⸻

• Marvell $MRVL
• Faces short-term pressure in optics due to the Trainium project reset and China export restrictions,
→ But these impacts are expected to be temporary.
• The Trainium program is on track to ship ~$2 billion worth in 2025, in line with expectations.
• Morgan Stanley believes Marvell retains a technological edge in AI and optical interconnects,
→ And valuation recovery could follow once market sentiment bottoms out.

⸻

• Broadcom $AVGO
• Custom ASIC revenue is primarily driven by Google,
• Products for Meta and ByteDance are in mass production but showing limited incremental upside.
• Networking remains strong, supported by the increasing use of Ethernet in AI systems.
• The software business continues its transition to a subscription model,
→ Over 60% of customers have now migrated,
→ FY2025 software revenue is expected to grow 24% YoY.
• Short-term pressure exists in non-AI segments due to cyclical fluctuations,
→ But the company’s long-term positioning in AI and networking is a clear strength.

⸻

• Sector Outlook:
• Capital continues to flow rapidly into AI infrastructure and applications.
• The market is closely watching the supply-demand dynamics of leading players such as NVDA and AVGO.
• Once bottlenecks in rack servers and custom ASICs are resolved,
→ The resulting supply shortage could act as a major earnings catalyst.
• Non-AI semiconductor demand is expected to recover in Q3,
→ With a notable rebound likely in Q4,
→ Supporting a continued recovery in overall industry sentiment through the end of the year.


Morgan Stanley believes Marvell retains a technological edge in AI and optical interconnects, and valuation recovery could follow once market sentiment bottoms out


the company's long-term positioning in AI and networking is a clear strength… once bottlenecks in rack servers and custom ASICs are resolved, the resulting supply shortage could act as a major earnings catalyst


Non-AI semiconductor demand is expected to recover in Q3, with a notable rebound likely in Q4, supporting a continued recovery in overall industry sentiment through the end of the year


Summary: Shares Australian broker downgrade: Topco Scientific cut to Neutral, Chun-Yuen cut to Underperform on CoWoS order deferrals and SoIC/CoPoS delays.

"Another brokerage has downgraded the CoWoS supply chain. An Australian brokerage estimates CoWoS capacity for 2025–2027 at 70K, 90K, and 110K wafers per month (wpm), respectively. They also believe that some orders have been deferred from 4Q25 to 1Q26. SoIC and CoPoS still require more time to develop, leading the firm to downgrade its rating on Topco Scientific to Neutral, and Underperform for Chunghwa Precision Test Tech (Chun-Yuen).

AI Supply Chain Tracking Update:
A major U.S. investment bank reiterated that demand for CoWoS-L used in Blackwell remains unchanged, maintaining forecasts of 390K units for this year and 540K units for next year. They estimate that NVIDIA will consume around 160K units in the first half of this year, and over 100K more in 3Q. The brokerage believes demand is not an issue; if assembly yields improve, it will further accelerate chip inventory consumption."

早安！5/16 外電綜合整理

- 3131弘塑、3583辛耘：澳系降評
又一家券商降評CoWoS供應鏈，澳系券商預估CoWoS 25-27年產能為70、90、110wpm, 同時認為有部分訂單從4Q25遞延到1Q26。SoIC, CoPoS也尚待時間，是故降評覆蓋裡弘塑的評等到Neutral, 降評辛耘到Underperform。

- AI 供應鏈追蹤報導：


Investment Opinion: Outperform (Buy)
Target Price: KRW 360,000 (Up 16% from previous)
12-Month Expected Return: 47%

Summary: Shares Macquarie Outperform on SK Hynix, PT raised to KRW 360K (+16%), 47% upside on HBM leadership and DRAM upcycle.

SK Hynix: Securing Leadership in HBM- Macquarie Research

🔍 Executive Summary
- Investment Opinion: Outperform (Buy)
- Target Price: KRW 360,000 (Up 16% from previous)
- Current Stock Price (as of 6/19): KRW 246,000
- 12-Month Expected Return: 47%
- 2025E PER: 5.0x, P/B: 1.7x

📌 Investment Points Summary

1. Securing HBM Leadership

- HBM revenue proportion within DRAM expected to increase from 45% to 74% by 2027.
- Effectively a leading monopoly in HBM, a high-value-added segment within DRAM.
- Major Customers: Nvidia (65%), Broadcom (20%), AWS (15%).

2. HBM Market Structure and Tight Supply

- Three major structural constraints:Front-end wafer capacity shortage (die increase limited by geometry shrink alone).
- Yield degradation due to increasing die size (TSV count increases from HBM4 to HBM5).
- Increased production complexity due to rising heat generation.
- HBM is a bottleneck for AI computing, leading to stronger demand than general DRAM.

3. HBM Profitability: Margin Pressure vs. Economies of Scale

- HBM4 may see some margin decline due to outsourcing the base die to TSMC.
- However, HBM revenue is expected to reach KRW 56 trillion in 2025 (+330% YoY), with operating profit of KRW 40 trillion.
- This would account for half of total DRAM revenue and 60% of total operating profit.

[2] Memory ASP and Bit Growth Rate
- DRAM ASP: $3.5 in 2024 → $7.6 in 2027.
- HBM ASP: $12.7 → $18.2.
- DRAM Bit Growth Rate: Maintained at 17% annually.
- HBM Bit Growth Rate: Rapid increase at 60-100% annually.

🔧 Strategic Implications
- Entering DRAM Up-cycle: Increased server and mobile DRAM content.
Examples: iPhone 17 → 12GB, Galaxy S26 → 16GB.
- DDR4 discontinuation → DDR5 transition leads to server DRAM module increases to 64GB/96GB.
- Limited entry of Chinese competitor (CXMT) into high-end DRAM → Maintaining technological gap.

📉 Risk Factors
- M15X / Yongin fab construction delays.
- Difficulty in technology upgrades for Wuxi Fab due to lack of EUV.
- Potential entry of CXMT into HBM/DDR5.
- Risk of HBM4 yield degradation and production disruptions.

🧠 Investor Perspective Summary
- 2025-26 cumulative profit of KRW 87 trillion > total capital of KRW 74 trillion → ROE excess return period.
- Increased likelihood of share buybacks: Excess cash generation expected after 2026.
- Current P/B of 2.4x is not overvalued; expected to drop to 1.2x by 2026.

🔄 Factors for Upward Revision vs. Consensus

- Stronger KRW (1,426 → 1,381 KRW/USD), upward revision of DRAM prices.
- 2026 operating profit estimate revised up by +6%.
- HBM ASP lowered somewhat conservatively (-5% YoY), but bit growth rate maintained.


Summary: NVDA expected to deliver strong earnings within guidance; robust non-China AI demand and CSP capex growth support the print despite H20 ban headwinds.

Wafer Input Costs at TSMC’s U.S. Plant Soar, NVIDIA GPU Prices “Rise Across the Board” -Digitimes

Sources in the supply chain have revealed that NVIDIA is facing multiple crises. Following a reported $5.5 billion write-down in its quarterly earnings due to the ban on downgraded H20 chips being sold to China, CEO Jensen Huang has been shuttling between the U.S. and China in hopes of minimizing the impact and persuading the U.S. government to ease AI chip restrictions.

At the same time, market rumors indicate that in order to maintain stable profitability, NVIDIA has recently raised official prices for almost all its products, allowing its partners to increase prices accordingly.

For example, ASUS’s high-end RTX 5090 graphics card, launched earlier this year at a retail price of around NT$90,000, has recently surged to NT$100,000 through distribution channels—an increase of more than 10%. Prices for H200/B200 GPU modules and servers have also gone up.

Given that AI chip demand outside China remains robust and cloud service providers (CSPs) continue expanding capital expenditures, NVIDIA is expected to deliver strong quarterly earnings within guidance by the end of this month.

Since April, U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed reciprocal tariffs and tightened AI chip export rules, effectively blocking NVIDIA’s downgraded H20 chips from entering China. As a result, NVIDIA has become a major target of these trade restrictions.

Jensen Huang is doing everything he can to defuse the situation and minimize the impact.

In response to Trump’s “Made in America” initiative, NVIDIA announced a $500 billion investment over four years to establish AI server manufacturing sites in the U.S. in partnership with TSMC, Foxconn, and others. Production of 4nm Blackwell chips has already begun at TSMC’s Arizona facility. Huang has also appeared alongside Trump, expressing that U.S. policies should focus on enhancing the competitiveness of American companies. He warned that restricting chip exports to China and other nations would undermine America’s technological leadership. He also visited Chinese government agencies during a sensitive time.

As Huang works both sides of the U.S.-China divide, he is seeking a resolution while repeatedly stressing to the U.S. government that China’s AI capabilities are catching up fast. He has warned that broader restrictions on AI chips could seriously harm U.S. chipmakers and accelerate China’s development efforts.

In a recent joint appearance with Trump, Huang even mentioned Huawei—blacklisted by the U.S.—noting that it has entered the AI chip field, achieving excellent performance in computing and networking technologies. He reiterated that U.S. policy should prioritize strengthening domestic competitiveness, and that limiting chip exports to China and others would threaten America's current technological lead.

It’s not just Huang raising concerns. AMD CEO Lisa Su also recently stated that China represents a "huge opportunity" for the global semiconductor and AI industries, urging a balanced approach between export controls and AI advancement. Rumors have emerged that the Trump administration is considering loosening some of the existing AI chip restrictions.

According to the supply chain, NVIDIA’s Jensen Huang is actively participating in public events and issuing warnings to the Trump administration, while reiterating support for the “Made in America” initiative.

On the operational side, NVIDIA has historically maintained strong control. Despite uncertainty around tariffs and AI chip restrictions, the company is striving to post stable earnings. Numerous products have reportedly seen official price hikes, and partners have followed suit with their own increases.

Take the high-demand RTX 50 series as an example: the RTX 5090, upon global launch earlier this year, was immediately snapped up at premium prices. Chinese AI chip buyers, in particular, paid without question—willing to purchase at any cost. The RTX 5090, originally priced around NT$80,000, quickly doubled in channel pricing.

After the AI chip ban was enacted, the RTX 5090 became even harder to obtain, pushing prices higher. Due to the sharp decline in Chinese orders, companies have introduced bundled offerings to maintain profitability and clear inventory. ASUS and others have pushed packages that include power supplies or fully assembled systems. The price of the RTX 5090 surged from around NT$90,000 to NT$100,000 overnight. Other RTX 50 series cards also saw price hikes of 5–10%.

Additionally, NVIDIA has reportedly raised prices for H200 and B200 chips and modules in response to rising costs and platform transition strategies. The price increases have rippled out, with server vendors also adjusting their quotes to clients—by approximately 10–15%.

The supply chain notes that shifting Blackwell chip production to TSMC’s U.S. plant has led to noticeable cost increases in manufacturing, materials, and logistics. Much like TSMC itself, NVIDIA has the pricing power to pass these costs on to customers, making the price hikes expected.

Even though AI chips like the H20 are banned from being sold to China, Chinese buyers still manage to acquire them through other channels outside the mainland. Meanwhile, demand from U.S. CSPs and other international customers remains strong. NVIDIA is expected to post impressive earnings within guidance in its upcoming report.

NVIDIA’s fiscal Q4 earnings for the period ending January 26, 2025, beat market expectations.

Revenue reached $39.33 billion, up 12% quarter-over-quarter and 78% year-over-year. Data center revenue came in at $35.6 billion, rising 16% QoQ and 93% YoY. The overall gross margin was 73%.

Looking ahead to Q1 of fiscal 2026, NVIDIA estimates revenue of approximately $43 billion, a 65% increase YoY, although this growth is slower than the 262% surge in the same period a year earlier. Gross margins are expected to reach 70%.

NVIDIA plans to release its earnings at the end of May. Before that, Jensen Huang will visit Taiwan on May 12 to meet with supply chain partners, dine with major manufacturers on the 17th, and deliver a keynote speech on the 19th—reviving what many call the “trillion-dollar banquet,” with full momentum behind the AI boom.

---

https://t.co/GthtAfqaWg


Summary: DRAM prices rising 8-13% QoQ in Q3 on Chinese stockpiling + US AI demand; Samsung and SK Hynix earnings outlooks sharply revised upward; memory boom may extend beyond 2025.

Report: DRAM Prices to Continue Rising in Q3… Driven by Chinese Stockpiling and Expanding US AI Demand

According to market research firm TrendForce, DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 8-13% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. In particular, prices for general-purpose PC DDR4 products are projected to increase by 13-18%. This is an upward revision from initial forecasts of 5-10% for server DRAM and 3-8% for PC DRAM. The industry considers it extremely unusual for prices of older memory products to show stronger growth than new products.

Prices for the newer DDR5 are also on the rise. This is attributed to the expanding investment in AI server data centers by major US tech companies, leading to a comprehensive increase in demand for high-performance memory. Previously, demand was limited to NVIDIA's high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs), but recently, Google and Microsoft are also expanding their own AI infrastructure, broadening the demand for DDR5.

NVIDIA's agreement last month to supply AI chips to the Middle East is also stimulating memory demand. The Middle East has not traditionally been a region for AI chip demand. This suggests the possibility of HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand diversifying from its current North America-centric focus to regions like the Middle East and Europe.

An industry source explained, "While it was initially expected that pre-order demand from Chinese set manufacturers would be a temporary boost in Q2, there's a growing observation that additional orders will continue into the second half of the year. Simultaneously, with expanding AI investment demand from major US tech companies, the upward trend in memory prices is likely to continue for some time."

Due to these factors, the Q2 earnings outlooks for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are being sharply revised upwards. According to financial information provider FnGuide, as of June 5, the consensus operating profit forecasts from securities firms for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were KRW 6.8692 trillion and KRW 8.7538 trillion, respectively, representing double-digit increases compared to a month ago. This is because the average selling price (ASP) increase for memory is larger than previously expected, and demand for high-spec AI memory, such as HBM, is steadily growing.

Noh Geun-chang, a researcher at Hyundai Motor Securities, stated, "Considering that the substantial demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell Ultra will likely materialize after 2026, memory demand is highly probable to continue into the second half of this year. Furthermore, with AI investments from Middle Eastern countries, the memory boom could extend longer than previously anticipated."

---

https://t.co/Y7oUQx8eHn


the upward trend in memory prices is likely to continue for some time

Global DRAM basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix


Summary: Shares/endorses HSBC upgrade of AVGO to Buy, PT $400; ASIC explosive growth + multiple re-rating thesis with FY27e EPS 32% above consensus.

Broadcom (AVGO) - HSBC

📌 Executive Summary (Investor Perspective)

Rating Upgrade
- Previous: Hold → Current: Buy
- Target Price: USD 240 → USD 400 (approximately 58% upside from current price)

- Basis: Applying 32x P/E to FY27e EPS of USD 12.54 (10% premium over historical high of 29x)

📈 Investment Points

1. Explosive Growth Expectation and Visibility in ASIC Business
- Expected expansion from 3 existing customers → 7 by FY27
- Surging demand for Hyperscalers' in-house AI chips (ASIC) → Broadcom emerging as a key partner
- FY26-27 Estimated Revenue: USD 28.4bn → 42.8bn (42-69% above consensus)
- Industry-wide ASIC market CAGR: 96%, double the growth rate of the AI GPU market

2. Explosive Rise in ASIC ASP (Average Selling Price)
- Specification advancement from 5nm → 3nm, HBM3e → HBM4e

- FY26 ASP expected to increase 92% y-y, FY27 ASP expected to increase 25%
- Anticipated revenue and margin leverage effect due to price increase

3. CoWoS (Advanced Packaging) Supply Advantage

- Broadcom's CoWoS capacity growth rate of 48%, significantly higher than competitors Nvidia (11%) and AMD (15%)

3. Mitigation of Concerns Regarding VMware and Wireless Businesses

- Apple's wireless chip replacement speed slower than expected → Apple's share expected to increase to 88% by FY26
- VMware's existing customer contract conversion is on a 3-year cycle → Low likelihood of revenue slowdown until FY26

🔍 Performance and Valuation Outlook

For FY25e, revenue is expected to be $62.5 billion, with adjusted EPS at $6.82. The EV/EBITDA multiple is projected at 35.1x, and the free cash flow yield is 3.3%.
In FY26e, revenue is projected to grow to $82.6 billion, with adjusted EPS at $9.60, EV/EBITDA at 24.4x, and FCF yield rising to 4.3%.
By FY27e, revenue is forecasted to reach $102.7 billion, adjusted EPS at $12.54, EV/EBITDA at 19.0x, and FCF yield at 5.3%.

- HSBC's estimated EPS for FY27 is 32% above consensus.
- The company's valuation remains undervalued compared to its ASIC growth potential.
⚠ Risk Factors
- Failure to meet expectations for new ASIC customer count
- Lower-than-expected unit price premium

- Accelerated decline in Apple wireless chip market share
- Slowdown in VMware customer conversion speed
📌 Conclusion
Broadcom is judged to be capable of steep earnings growth + multiple re-rating by reflecting much stronger ASIC revenue growth and price premiums than previously anticipated. There is a high probability of a scenario similar to Nvidia's past AI GPU rally, involving an "earnings revision → stock price rally," and the current stock price does not yet reflect this, making it a timely opportunity to buy.

$AVGO


earnings are likely to exceed market expectations. Guidance is also expected to meet or exceed market expectations. With HBM production capacity increasing and sales volume continuing to grow, positive guidance is anticipated

Summary: Bullish MU into FY3Q25 earnings (Jun 26): DDR4/DDR5 price tailwinds, solid server demand, and HBM ramp expected to drive beat-and-raise.

Semiconductor: Micron’s US Investment Announcement

[Daishin Securities – Semiconductors / Hyungkeun Ryu]

Micron Details Its US Investment Plans
Yesterday, Micron announced its US investment plan. The core of this announcement is that Micron will establish six advanced fabs in the US (two in Idaho, up to four in New York) and expand its existing Virginia fab, with the mid- to long-term goal of producing 40% of its DRAM in the United States.
Existing plants are reaching the limits of their fab space.
According to the current design capacity, the remaining fab space is only about 50–60K wafers per month. As process technology advances, the length of the process line is increasing overall, making it difficult to respond to mid- to long-term production needs through conversion investments alone. Thus, new fab projects have been initiated. For the Idaho plant, production is expected to begin contributing from 1H27. The initial operation is estimated to be on a DRAM 1c line.

Meanwhile, the Hiroshima Plant 2 is expected to be delayed compared to initial plans. Recruitment and infrastructure construction are overall being delayed, so it is deemed difficult to start operations within 2027. The New York plant is a long-term project set for after 2027. Thus, the short-term impact of this US investment decision on production will be limited.

Micron’s Upcoming Earnings Announcement: Proof of Cycle Improvement
Micron is scheduled to announce its FY3Q25 (March–May 2025 quarter) earnings on June 26th, Korea time. Through the quarterly results and guidance for the next quarter, we expect to get a sense of the short-term market environment. Due to the phase-out and steep production cuts of DDR4 in the supply industry, DDR4 prices are soaring (up over 30% quarter-on-quarter), and as customers normalize inventories amid tight supply-demand conditions, prices for DDR5 and LPDDR5 continue to rise. As such, earnings are likely to exceed market expectations.
Guidance for the next quarter (June–August 2025) is also expected to be in line with market expectations. The rebound in demand for mobile and sets is continuing into CY2Q25, and purchasing orders for servers remain solid, so the short-term outlook remains favorable. With HBM production capacity increasing and sales volume continuing to grow, Micron is expected to provide positive guidance. We believe that this earnings release will strengthen confidence in the short-term profit growth of Korean semiconductors.

Micron Technology Announces US Investment
Yesterday, Micron announced a new US investment plan. They plan to invest a total of $200 billion (with $150 billion in manufacturing and $50 billion in R&D), and the core of the new US investment plan is to establish six advanced fabs in the US (two in Idaho, up to four in New York) and expand the existing Virginia fab, with the goal of producing 40% of their DRAM in the US in the mid- to long-term.

What Is the Background of This Fab Expansion?
So far, Micron has expanded its capacity mainly through M&A. However, as the trend of treating semiconductors as strategic assets strengthens and domestic protectionist policies for the semiconductor industry are reinforced, it is becoming increasingly difficult to expand capacity via M&A. With the DRAM industry structure consolidated into three major players (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) plus China, there are fewer new fab sites to acquire via M&A.
The option of acquiring Nanya’s fab in Taiwan is under consideration, but since Nanya continues to focus on consumer products, the feasibility of that M&A is considered low.

As available space at existing fabs decreases, it seems inevitable that Micron would choose to build new fabs. The remaining space at current fabs is estimated to be just 50–60K wafers per month (with current capacity at 320–330K wafers/month and maximum capacity at 380K). With process miniaturization, process lines are getting longer overall, so increasing production just through conversion investments is not sufficient for mid- to long-term production needs. Therefore, Micron is actively pursuing new fab projects.

- Currently, three new fab projects are underway (for front-end process): Hiroshima Plant 2 in Japan, a new plant in Idaho, and the New York project. Among these, the Idaho plant is expected to come online first, contributing to production starting in 1H27 (wafer input in early 2027, wafer output in 1H27), initially operating a DRAM 1c line.

- The start-up of Hiroshima Plant 2 is expected to be delayed compared to the original plan. As the Trump administration’s onshoring policy for semiconductor supply chains strengthens, the burden of ramping up US fabs has likely increased. For Hiroshima Plant 2, overall hiring and infrastructure buildout are believed to be delayed, and given the current situation, it is judged unlikely to start up within 2027.

- The New York project is a long-term one and is unlikely to contribute to production within the next three years (2025–2027).
- As for the Taiwan site, while there is available land, due to geopolitical risk, fab investment has not yet been considered.

Will Korean Companies Also Invest in US Front-End Fabs?
The US’s semiconductor strategy since the Biden administration has been to build a domestic semiconductor supply chain to enhance supply chain stability and stimulate the economy directly and indirectly. The use of tariffs despite an underdeveloped domestic semiconductor manufacturing supply chain is ultimately a strategic choice to accelerate the localization of fab construction in the US.

However, there are practical concerns about mass production of memory semiconductors in the US. While government subsidies are expected via the CHIPS Act (potentially reducing building depreciation costs), the operation efficiency of US fabs is considered inferior to that of Asia. Because semiconductor fabs operate 24/7, managing fixed costs such as labor and electricity is critical, but the US faces significantly higher fixed costs compared to Asia. In the memory semiconductor industry, where costs remain critical, an increase in fixed costs is a burden for building new production lines.

Even if Korean semiconductor companies decide to build new US front-end fabs, it is considered realistically impossible for the new fab to come online within the Trump administration’s term. Given the current US construction market, it is expected to take at least 40 months to complete a fab, and considering the time needed to make an investment decision, it is realistically unlikely for the fab to be operational within the administration’s term. Investment in back-end process lines or R&D facilities, which require shorter construction times than front-end fabs, seems possible.

Are There Any Disadvantages?
Ultimately, I believe any disadvantages will be limited. There is still time before Micron’s US projects come online, and it will take at least until after 2028 for the US production lines to ramp up enough to fully meet local demand. This means the supply-side still holds the initiative, and the effectiveness of the Trump administration’s semiconductor tariff policy will be limited accordingly.

Micron’s Upcoming Earnings Announcement: Impact on Korean Semiconductors?
Micron is scheduled to announce its FY3Q25 (March–May 2025 quarter) earnings at 5:30 a.m. KST on June 26. Through the quarterly results and next-quarter guidance, we believe we can get a sense of the memory semiconductor market. As DDR4 has been phased out and production drastically reduced in the supply industry, DDR4 prices have surged, and with customer inventory normalization and tight supply-demand conditions, prices for DDR5/LPDDR5 continue to rise. This means that earnings are likely to exceed market expectations.
Guidance is also expected to meet or exceed market expectations. The rebound in set demand (restocking demand from customer inventory normalization, preparations for new product launches in the second half of the year, etc.) continues into CY2Q25, and purchasing orders for servers remain solid, so the short-term outlook is expected to remain favorable. With HBM production capacity increasing and sales volume continuing to grow, positive guidance is anticipated, which we believe will lead to increased confidence in the short-term earnings of Korean semiconductor companies.

$MU


These initiatives are set to significantly expand Broadcom's market opportunity, with projected revenues rising from approximately $75 billion in FY2027 to over $100 billion in FY2028

Summary: Long AVGO: AI ASIC dominance, TPU/MTIA/OpenAI ramp, and revenue projected to grow from ~$75B in FY2027 to >$100B in FY2028.

AI ASIC and Networking Chips

Broadcom’s dominance in the AI ASIC market is striking, with over 100 chip designs completed across 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm process nodes—firmly securing its No.1 position with over 80% market share. In the high-performance switching and routing chip sector, Broadcom also holds a commanding lead, boasting more than 80% market share with its Tomahawk 5 and Jericho 3 chipsets.

Broadcom is set to begin mass production of its next-generation 3nm Tomahawk 6 switch chipset in the second half of 2025. The chip supports 102Tbps switching throughput (200Gbps SERDES) and is positioned as the highest-performing Ethernet networking chipset globally, placing Broadcom 1–2 generations ahead of competitors.

Meanwhile, Broadcom’s AI ASIC programs are progressing rapidly.
Google’s TPUv6 3nm ASIC has entered mass production, featuring
two 3nm compute dies and eight HBM3e stacks per package,
and is hailed as “the world’s most powerful custom AI XPU.”
The project is expected to bring Broadcom over $15 billion in lifetime revenue,
with revenue contributions starting in July 2025 and full-scale production in October and into the first half of 2026.

Broadcom has completed design for the next-gen TPUv7 3nm,
and has already started collaborating with Google on the TPUv8 2nm project,
targeting mass production in 2027–2028.

With Meta, Broadcom co-designed 7nm and 5nm MTIA AI chips (mainly for inference workloads),
and has sampled its next-gen 3nm MTIA chip,
which is powerful enough to support both AI training and inference,
with mass production expected in 2026.

Additionally, Broadcom’s AI ASIC projects with OpenAI and SoftBank/ARM are also steadily progressing,
utilizing TSMC’s 3D SoIC chip stacking technology.
These projects are expected to tape out in the second half of 2025,
with mass production slated for mid to late 2026.

These initiatives are set to significantly expand Broadcom’s market opportunity,
with projected revenues rising from approximately $75 billion in FY2027
to over $100 billion in FY2028.


Summary: Bearish Getty Images: generative AI undercuts image-licensing revenue; stock won't recover if it falls.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

My opinion on Getty Images: If its value drops, it will keep dropping; there's no way it's going up.

I recently watched a shocking video on YouTube Shorts. It was a viral video introducing a website that converts copyrighted images into royalty-free generative AI images.

Watching that, I realized that businesses selling images for profit might no longer be sustainable.

Especially among the small Korean media outlets I know, most are already using generative AI to create images for their articles instead of buying them.

Can Getty continue its business? I really don't know. While places like Bloomberg or NYT might keep buying images from Getty, I can definitely foresee Getty's revenue steadily declining.

This is not a buy or sell recommendation.


Summary: Shares JPMorgan note: NVDA mid-long term AI cycle intact despite short-term supply mismatch; ASIC growth (Broadcom) slows in 2026 before reaccelerating in 2027.

250519_AI Servers Update – JPMorgan
[Key Takeaways]

(1) AI server demand remains solid, but in the short term, there is a supply imbalance between upstream and downstream, which presents a short-term downside risk.

(2) In the mid-to-long term, 1) macroeconomic uncertainty and 2) a shift in CSPs’ resource allocation stance—from proactive computing infrastructure buildout to optimization/utilization—lead to downward revisions in AI GPU shipment growth rates for 2026 and 2027.
■ '26 AI GPU Shipments YoY +28% [Previous +38%]
■ '27 AI GPU Shipments YoY +10% [Previous +17%]

(3) While the ASIC market is expected to experience slower growth in the short term, growth will reaccelerate from 2027 as projects from Meta and OpenAI are reflected.
[Contents]
(1) Final demand for AI remains solid, but the gap between upstream production and system manufacturing is widening.

(2) JPMorgan maintains its forecast of 5.5 million GPU modules produced by NVIDIA, but adjusts the GPU mix.

(3) Specifically, the production share of H200 increases, while the proportion of Blackwell HGX products is reduced.

(4) Over the past 6 months, adoption of AI inference has increased, and demand for AI training continues, indicating a solid foundation for AI demand.

(5) The recent upward trend in CAPEX by U.S. CSPs also supports this view.

(6) However, a mismatch has emerged between GPU module production [Upstream] and GPU board/rack assembly [Downstream].

(7) In other words, a growing mismatch between GPU supply and actual demand within the supply chain is forming, potentially signaling a period of downside risk.

(8) Considering the preemptive computing infrastructure built this year and more cautious IT budget execution, the growth rate of CAPEX for AI servers may moderate.

(9) Accordingly, AI GPU shipment growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are revised downward by -10% and -7%, respectively.
■ '26 shipment growth rate: YoY +28%; '27: +10%, factoring in average selling price (ASP) increases

(10) While there are short-term risks from inventory and policies (e.g., tariffs), the AI up-cycle is expected to continue over the medium to long term.

(11) The most critical timing will be Q3, when GB200 GPU rack production normalizes.

(12) In 1Q25, production was delayed due to GB200 supply issues, but in 2Q25, system assembly yields are improving, and ramp-up is accelerating.

(13) The key focus for customers is whether they will adopt the GB200 instead of the delayed GB300.
(14) Our base case is: 1) continued learning curve improvement for GB200, 2) solid AI demand, and 3) projected GB rack shipments at approximately 25K units.
■ 1Q25: 1.0–1.5K
■ 2Q25: 4–5K
■ 3Q25: 8–10K
■ 4Q25: 8–10K

(15) Meanwhile, NVIDIA's growth will ultimately be led by the four major U.S. hyperscalers, while ASIC growth is expected to slow.

(16) According to our analysis, the combined data center CAPEX of the four major U.S. big tech firms will reach approximately $280 billion this year, consuming about 2.0 million Blackwell GPUs.

(17) This is expected to account for around 40–50% of NVIDIA’s topline GPU shipment growth.

(18) In addition to demand from these big tech firms, secondary CSPs are projected to drive total NVL72 GB rack demand to approximately 38K units.

(19) In contrast, ASIC server growth is expected to slow next year.
(20) This is because ASIC-based platforms like Google TPU and AWS Inferentia are already large, and macro uncertainties may have an impact.
(21) However, ASIC-related projects from Meta and OpenAI are structurally likely to grow in the coming years.
(22) Overall, 2026 ASIC shipments are expected to grow by YoY +10%, with a reacceleration of growth in 2027 driven by new projects.

$NVDA $AVGO $TSM

「 AI Servers: End demand intact, but rising gap between upstream build and system production (2025.5.18)」

📌 Key Summary

🧠 1. AI Server Demand Remains Solid, but Supply Chain Mismatch Deepens
• NVIDIA’s 2025 high-end GPU shipment forecast remains at 5.5 million units

• https://t.co/cJucmPA4GS


ASIC server growth is expected to slow next year


Summary: Shares HSBC upgrade of AVGO from Hold to Buy, PT raised to $400 (~58% upside) on 32x FY27e EPS.

HSBC's AVGO Outlook Chart 1 https://t.co/YIkt1ogaPi

Broadcom (AVGO) - HSBC

📌 Executive Summary (Investor Perspective)

Rating Upgrade
- Previous: Hold → Current: Buy
- Target Price: USD 240 → USD 400 (approximately 58% upside from current price)

- Basis: Applying 32x P/E to FY27e EPS of USD 12.54 (10% premium over historical https://t.co/dAo3tvBbQE