This packaging investment is evidence that Intel has secured a certain degree of advanced foundry process customers… The 18A process combined with expanded advanced packaging investment could be the starting signal for Intel's foundry revival.

Summary: Bullish INTC: large-scale EMIB packaging investment + 18A ramp signals foundry revival with secured customers.

Intel Accelerates Foundry Revival, Spearheaded by Advanced Packaging

Intel is accelerating the revival of its foundry (contract manufacturing) business through large-scale investment in advanced semiconductor packaging. By expanding infrastructure such as materials, components, and equipment, Intel is significantly scaling up its advanced packaging capacity to strengthen its response to the foundry customers it has recently secured.

According to industry sources on the 28th, Intel is currently placing large-scale purchase orders for materials, components, and equipment from its global supply chain partners. Multiple supply contracts for materials, components, and equipment have reportedly already been signed. Some Korean materials/components/equipment companies are also participating.

An industry official familiar with the matter said, "Advanced packaging facility investment on the scale of several trillion won is underway," adding, "Considering equipment lead times and the timing of materials and component supply, full-scale operation is expected next year." Intel is also discussing cooperation with some partners regarding facility investment in 2028. The investment locations cited as major packaging production hubs include the United States as well as Vietnam and Malaysia.

This investment is said to be focused on expanding capacity for "EMIB (Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge)."

EMIB is Intel's proprietary 2.5D packaging technology that connects different semiconductors (dies). Signals are exchanged between chips via a silicon bridge embedded in the semiconductor substrate, and it is known to offer superior cost and productivity compared to the silicon interposer-based 2.5D packaging led by TSMC. In particular, it enables precise 2.5D packaging by connecting only the necessary areas with bridges.

Intel is advancing EMIB further with technologies such as EMIB-T, which applies through-silicon via (TSV) technology to the bridge, and packaging that integrates glass substrates. The aim is to broaden its customer base by diversifying its packaging technologies. This materials/components/equipment investment also includes numerous new technologies to be applied to next-generation packaging.

This packaging investment is a strategic move to strengthen foundry capabilities. Intel declared its re-entry into the foundry business in 2021 and pursued the development of advanced (front-end) processes, but it has struggled to secure major customers. This was largely due to TSMC's dominance in advanced chip foundry, including AI semiconductors.

The packaging investment is also interpreted as a strategy to strengthen Intel's differentiated capabilities to attract foundry customers. Because the limits of circuit miniaturization mean the entire industry faces constraints in boosting chip performance through front-end processes, Intel is seen as attempting to break through this bottleneck with advanced packaging (back-end) and place its entire foundry business on a stable trajectory.

Intel is also pursuing front-end advancement in parallel to maximize synergy. Last year, Intel brought its "Intel 18A" process—equivalent to the 2-nanometer (㎚) class—into full-scale operation. It has continued facility investment not only for its own chips but also to serve foundry customers.

Another industry official predicted, "This packaging investment is evidence that Intel has secured a certain degree of advanced foundry process customers," and "The 18A process combined with expanded advanced packaging investment could be the starting signal for Intel's foundry revival."

$INTC

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https://t.co/bbp6JYEGBB


The smartphone situation is only going to get worse — it certainly won't get any better. I personally think this target is overly optimistic as well.

Summary: Bearish Android smartphone sector; Xiaomi CFO's -10% YoY revenue floor seen as too optimistic, expects worse declines.

Android phone sector proxy: Qualcomm + Samsung

The smartphone situation is only going to get worse — it certainly won't get any better.

Someone from the @TMTBreakout Chat mentioned that they met Xiaomi's CFO last week.

According to them, the CFO said:
"Our goal is to make sure that the smartphone division's revenue doesn't fall more than -10% (YoY basis)."

I personally think this target is overly optimistic as well.

Long Memory, Short [Android] Smartphone https://t.co/5QvZWX1SXB https://t.co/ZwrGvmbs0b


Summary: Long ASML on surging DUV demand, with CXMT bidding up reserved slots.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

ASML’s DUV demand is apparently going through the roof, and CXMT is said to be buying up other companies’ reserved DUV slots at higher prices.

Insane. Long $ASML

ASML的DUV需求完全爆表了，长鑫在到处加价“收条子”——之前定机器的

要知道一年前市场还在担心DUV受中国+ intc影响呢

有种感觉半导体研究没意义了，token指数级需求增长，供不应求才是常态，大家都没涨到位


FC-BGA is seeing a sustained sold-out trend from the second half onward in a demand environment where additional capacity expansion is inevitable… With a 10% upward revision to our FC-BGA price estimates, we are raising our substrate materials division operating profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to KRW 386.1 billion and KRW 504.6 billion, respectively—up 185% and 41% year-over-year

Summary: Shares Mirae Asset Buy thesis on Samsung Electro-Mechanics: FC-BGA price hikes + sold-out demand drive 185%/41% OP forecast upgrades for 2026/2027.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics listed on KOSPI as 009150.KS

Samsung Electro-Mechanics Raises FC-BGA Prices… 185% Operating Profit Growth Forecast for This Year

Samsung Electro-Mechanics has recently raised prices on its flip-chip ball grid array (FC-BGA), a high-performance semiconductor substrate. Market expectations for earnings improvement and mid-to-long-term growth are rising accordingly.

According to industry sources on March 31, Samsung Electro-Mechanics is reported to have raised prices on select FC-BGA product lines. The move is interpreted as a measure to defend profitability amid rising raw material costs for FC-BGA.

Additionally, as demand surges rapidly for these components—essential to AI servers and high-performance computing—suppliers' pricing power has strengthened, which is another driver behind the price hike.

The decision to raise substrate prices, underpinned by rising raw material costs and enhanced bargaining power, is expected to have a positive impact on both revenue and operating profit.

FC-BGA has recently been experiencing near-"sold out" levels of scarcity. Samsung Electro-Mechanics recently achieved the milestone of supplying FC-BGA to NVIDIA.

The structural shift in the semiconductor industry toward high-end compute devices such as CPUs and GPUs is also driving mid-to-long-term growth in the FC-BGA market.

FC-BGA is an essential substrate for packaging top-tier semiconductors like CPUs and GPUs, and demand is surging alongside the proliferation of AI servers.

However, a severe "supply bottleneck" persists. Production capacity for advanced package substrates has failed to keep pace with rapidly growing global demand, and the substrate shortage is now constraining the pace of AI server supply chain expansion.

At a recent shareholders' meeting, Samsung Electro-Mechanics CEO Jang Deok-hyun stated: "Demand for server and data center FC-BGA exceeds production capacity by more than 50%," adding that "we are making supplementary investments and expanding some facilities."

According to market research firm Prismark, FC-BGA is projected to record a CAGR of over 15% from 2025 to 2030, the highest growth rate among all PCB product categories.

Even as suppliers like Nittobo expand production, demand growth is outpacing capacity additions, and the surge in demand for low-loss materials used in AI high-performance substrates is creating supply chain constraints.

The sell-side also views Samsung Electro-Mechanics as entering a phase of full-scale profitability improvement driven by FC-BGA price increases.

In a report dated March 31, Mirae Asset analyst Park Jun-seo wrote: "FC-BGA is seeing a sustained sold-out trend from the second half onward in a demand environment where additional capacity expansion is inevitable," and noted that "negotiations for further price increases are understood to be progressing favorably." He added: "With a 10% upward revision to our FC-BGA price estimates, we are raising our substrate materials division operating profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to KRW 386.1 billion and KRW 504.6 billion, respectively—up 185% and 41% year-over-year."

Prices for high-end MLCCs (multilayer ceramic capacitors) used in AI servers are also being raised as supply tightens amid growing demand. Mirae Asset Securities estimates that a 15–25% increase in AI server MLCC prices could generate hundreds of billions of won in additional operating profit.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics is restructuring its portfolio around high-end products such as FC-BGA and MLCC. It is also expanding supply capacity through facility expansion at its Philippine production base. In the aerospace sector, the company is building a new growth pillar by expanding supply of high-reliability MLCCs for satellites and aviation. As a result, Samsung Electro-Mechanics posted record-high revenue of KRW 11.3145 trillion last year.

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https://t.co/EQ0MErnRQH


Summary: Severe glass fiber shortage drives spillover demand for Taiwanese CCL/glass fiber makers—Elite Material, FULLTECH FIBER, Baotek, and Grandsys—ahead of NVIDIA Rubin ramp in 2H26.

Severe glass fiber shortage drives spillover benefits for Taiwanese glass fiber makers

• Ahead of the mass production ramp of NVIDIA’s Rubin platform in 2H26, AI servers and high-speed switches are being upgraded from the existing 112G generation to the 224G PAM4 high-speed transmission generation. As a result, demand is surging for high-performance Low-Dk and Low-CTE materials that reduce signal loss and thermal deformation.

• Taiwan’s major CCL supplier Elite Material is currently facing a shortage of its highest-end M7 and M8 materials, with supply unable to keep up with demand. The company plans to begin early shipments of next-generation M9-grade materials from 3Q this year, making 2027 likely the first year of full-scale mass production for high-end materials.

• The high-end Low-CTE glass fiber market is tightly supplied, as Japanese companies such as Nittobo effectively dominate the segment. This is creating significant spillover benefits for Taiwanese glass fiber manufacturers. FULLTECH FIBER is entering the AI server and high-speed switch supply chain with Low-Dk and Low-CTE products, while Baotek is expanding its high-strength glass fiber, or T-Glass, portfolio. Grandsys is benefiting from price increases in general-purpose products and is developing next-generation new materials, including Q-cloth and Q-glass.

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https://t.co/dSyBdtAJbc


FULLTECH FIBER is entering the AI server and high-speed switch supply chain with Low-Dk and Low-CTE products

Fulltech Fiber Glass 3035.TW Taiwan glass fiber materials


Baotek is expanding its high-strength glass fiber, or T-Glass, portfolio

Baotek Industrial Materials 3051.TW Taiwan glass fiber


Summary: MLCC suppliers Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics named as beneficiaries of Nvidia's Vera Rubin shift away from Panasonic SP-CAPs toward multi-sourced high-cap MLCCs, with demand exceeding supply.

▶ Vera Rubin Compute Tray Design Unfinalized as Nvidia Pushes Supply Diversification

- Nvidia's next-gen platform Vera Rubin is slated for mass production in Q3 2026, though the GPU compute tray design remains unfinalized, raising the possibility of partial shipment delays.

- Supply chain diversification strategy intensified to mitigate component shortage risks — ongoing design revisions driven by the shift toward multi-vendor structures and elimination of single-source dependencies.

- As a result, Panasonic SP-CAPs (polymer aluminum capacitors) will not be adopted in the Vera Rubin compute tray; the high supplier concentration inherent in that component conflicted with the broader supply diversification strategy.

- High-capacity MLCCs emerging as the alternative, enabling both performance compliance and multi-sourcing from suppliers such as Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics.

- AI server racks require approximately 15,000–25,000 MLCCs per unit; rising ASPs and increasing content per system are positioning MLCCs as a major BOM cost item alongside GPUs and memory.

- On the Nvidia GB300 platform, up to 30,000 MLCCs are needed per system — roughly 3x an automobile, 10x a mining rig, and 30x a smartphone.

- Murata reports high-spec MLCC demand exceeding production capacity, with lead times extending from 10–12 weeks to 14–16 weeks, signaling tightening supply conditions.

- The Vera Rubin platform's elevated spec requirements and design complexity mean that not only supplier technical capability but also speed of response to design changes is becoming a key competitive differentiator.

- Despite being in the pre-mass production stage, portions of the BOM remain unfinalized in terms of component specs and supply structure, with final adjustments still underway.

- Near-term shipment timelines may be impacted, but longer-term this is viewed as a necessary process to strengthen supply chain resilience.

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https://t.co/wzHPK5QUDc


Murata reports high-spec MLCC demand exceeding production capacity, with lead times extending from 10–12 weeks to 14–16 weeks, signaling tightening supply conditions

Murata Manufacturing Co., listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange


HBM revenue is expected to triple YoY this year. Capacity is already sold out. From Q3 of this year, HBM4 revenue will account for more than half of total HBM revenue. The supply-to-demand fulfillment rate is at a historic low. 2027 demand is already being booked in advance by customers.

Summary: Bullish Samsung: HBM revenue tripling YoY, capacity sold out, historic-low supply/demand ratio, 2027 demand already booking ahead, and 2nm foundry contracts materializing.

Samsung Electronics 1Q26 Conference Call Q&A Key Takeaways (1)

1. Is Samsung also pursuing LTAs?
Yes. Contracts have already been signed with some customers. Unlike prior trust-based agreements, these carry substantial binding force. By covering investment amounts, duration, and technical difficulty, they lower CAPA operational risk and enhance business stability and visibility for both customers and Samsung.

2. Union bonus negotiations — were any provisions booked in Q1, and at what scale?
Labor-management negotiations are still in progress, so no provisions were booked this quarter. The size of any Q2 provision will be determined based on the outcome of the negotiations.

3. Detailed memory results
• Q1 DRAM bit growth met guidance
• NAND grew by high single digits, exceeding guidance
• ASP rose by low 90% for DRAM and high 80% for NAND

4. Impact of the May general strike on results and management response
A general strike is scheduled for May 21 – June 7. The company will do its utmost to prevent any production disruption.

5. Geopolitical risks
Production lines are operating normally, with no supply chain risk following the Middle East conflict. Some process gases are sourced from parts of the Middle East, but inventory has been secured and the supplier base is diversified, so there is no medium- to long-term supply risk.
On rising electricity prices, the company will continue to secure a stable power supply through close cooperation with the government. There is, however, some impact from higher freight costs driven by oil prices.

6. Q2 memory business outlook
Industry-wide supply expansion constraints will persist for the time being. The supply-to-demand fulfillment rate is at a historic low. 2027 demand is already being booked in advance by customers. Based on demand received so far alone, the 2027 supply-demand gap is expected to widen further versus 2026.
Bit growth is expected to increase by mid-single digits for DRAM and low single digits for NAND QoQ.

7. HBM sales expansion outlook and HBM4E business status
HBM revenue is expected to triple YoY this year. Capacity is already sold out. From Q3 of this year, HBM4 revenue will account for more than half of total HBM revenue.

8. Foundry business outlook
Customer demand to secure memory and foundry on a turnkey basis is increasing. The company is in discussions with multiple HPC customers on 2nm/4nm processes, and 2nm contracts with some customers are expected to materialize in the near future.
Beyond silicon photonics devices, Samsung is also developing advanced-node processes, 3D packaging, and CPO technologies. Mass production for optical communication module customers is scheduled to begin in 2H26.

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Samsung Electronics 1Q26 Conference Call Q&A Key Takeaways (2)

9. How will Samsung manage the mix between HBM and conventional DRAM?
Conventional DRAM has actually been delivering higher profitability than HBM recently. Conventional pricing is negotiated on a quarterly basis while HBM is on an annual basis, and as conventional’s quarterly price increases have widened, a profitability reversal has occurred.
However, given that the HBM supply-demand gap continues to widen, the profitability gap between the two products is expected to narrow significantly in 2027.
Running a P-mix weighted toward conventional based solely on short-term profitability could constrain AI infrastructure build-out itself. A balanced supply is needed to sustain continued AI demand creation.
Samsung will execute a balanced P-mix taking into account medium- to long-term growth and long-term customer relationships in a comprehensive manner.

10. MX division outlook
The 2026 market is expected to grow slightly in value terms, but unit volumes will drop sharply. Profitability deterioration is unavoidable.

11. NAND market outlook
Demand for high-performance storage such as TLC-based PCIe 6.0 SSDs is expected to grow. The need to address data movement latency stemming from performance gaps between HBM, DRAM, and storage will also increase.
In the QLC space, the V9 transition is also accelerating.

12. Plans for additional investment in the Taylor fab, and how to address relatively low utilization at legacy fabs?
Taylor Fab 1 held its equipment move-in ceremony on April 23. After fab ramp-up in 2026 and the start of mass production in 2027, 2nm capacity will be expanded in stages. For Fab 2, initial reviews for construction are underway in parallel with discussions on global customer orders.
Less competitive processes are being decisively phased out. For CIS and DDI — where process migration is expected to continue — capacity will be converted to 17nm, while 8-inch lines currently mass-producing PMIC, DDI, and similar products will be sequentially closed.


buy names tied to Nvidia's CPO ecosystem

Summary: Bullish on stocks tied to Nvidia's CPO ecosystem as the leading play on co-packaged optics commercialization.

If you want to make money from CPO stocks right now, it would be smart to buy names tied to Nvidia’s CPO ecosystem. Other companies are dragging their feet because of existing vested interests.

Do your own research. https://t.co/nY1Q3NBJ1k

When will CPO actually see mass production?-Digitimes

The market continues to closely watch the deployment of co-packaged optics (CPO) technology in cloud AI, driven by the desire of the silicon photonics (SiPh) ecosystem to see a tangible revenue impact. Cloud AI vendors are https://t.co/qM5hoOp1vo


Summary: Bullish on Lotes; endorses the parent's thesis on CPU socket exposure and optionality.

Lotes Co. 3533.TW Taiwan connector maker

@HighBorrowCost I’m also positive on Lotes.

@jukan05 Why not Lotes? Geared to CPU via LGA sockets. And plenty of optionality to be second source when SOCAMM (finally) adopted, and second source for LGA NPO sockets + ELS connectors (most obvious second source to FIT?)


Summary: Long ABF substrate and HBM stocks as chip bottlenecks; skeptical on gas turbine stocks as power theme looks overblown.

ABF substrate basket: Ibiden, Unimicron, EMC, Tripod

A striking sentence I read today:

We don’t think power is the constraint for TSMC’s chip demand, at least for 2027, but ABF substrate and HBM supply are major gating factors. -Morgan Stanley

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My view: hyperscalers will find a solution on the power side, whether that means buying transformers from China or buying natural gas generators instead of transformers.

But the chip bottleneck cannot be worked around.

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Isn’t it a bit late to be buying gas turbine stocks at this point? I think ABF and HBM stocks are still worth buying even now.

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For now, the power shortage theme looks a bit overblown to me.


HBM sector basket: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron


Isn't it a bit late to be buying gas turbine stocks at this point

Gas turbine basket: GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, MHI


Summary: Bullish semiconductor equipment sector broadly; author expects supply tightness beyond EUV alone, echoing Fubon/MS views on an equipment bottleneck.

Semiconductor equipment basket: AMAT, Lam, KLA, ASML

Two sell side firms I usually pay close attention to came out with a similar view today.

Fubon Research: Even if TSMC wants to increase capex next year, EUV shortages may limit how much it can actually raise capex.

Morgan Stanley: Around 2028, memory makers may try to execute unprecedented capex programs, and at that point EUV could emerge as the next bottleneck, potentially triggering a boom in the semiconductor equipment sector.

Personally, I think the shortage won’t be limited to EUV. Semiconductor equipment broadly could become tight.


Summary: Bullish INTC: 14A process ramping better than expected, implying TSMC technology transfer thesis may have legs.

Were Jensen Huang and C.C. Wei wrong when they said that TSMC’s technology cannot be copied just because a few people leave the company?

Intel 14A seems to be ramping much better than I had expected.

终于知道为什么台湾动用全国力量围剿罗唯仁了。
这是真的决定人类命运的一次跳槽，英特尔真有能力去把那一册子N2 A16 A14机密变成世纪大翻盘。真有能力扭转美国半导体乃至美国国家的命运。

这比梁孟松还要梁孟松，已经是这个世纪最难以置信的逆转故事 $INTC https://t.co/bkOuczPy2b


Summary: Shares Counterpoint Research bullish thesis on Samsung: record 2026 earnings, strong DRAM margins until 2027, HBM4/4E leadership.

Counterpoint Research: Memory prices to rise further in Q2… Samsung’s Q2 results likely to improve further

According to Counterpoint Research's memory price tracker, memory demand relative to supply remains strong, with Q2 prices expected to rise over 80% for mobile and over 50% for PC. Samsung's earnings are projected to improve further in Q2, with 2026 full-year results expected to reach record levels.

Counterpoint senior researcher Choi Jeong-gu noted: "Samsung's strong performance is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Memory demand is robust across the board, generating high margins in commodity DRAM, and this trend is likely to persist until supply expansion becomes visible around 2027. In HBM4, Samsung has solidified its leadership by adopting 1c-nano process core dies and 4nm foundry-based base dies, and it can be said to hold an advantageous position over competitors in the upcoming HBM4E as well."

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https://t.co/QlFX1QBQwE


전 좀 영업이익 전망치를 낮춰야한다고 생각합니다

Summary: Author believes SK Hynix operating profit estimates need to come down, implying bearish on the stock.

@treeapple33 전 좀 영업이익 전망치를 낮춰야한다고 생각합니다.

@jukan05 그런 의미에서 내년 메모리 영업이익 추정치가 상당히 갈리고 있는 것처럼 보이네요. 필히 가격을 낮추고 장기 안정성을 얻는 방향으로 갈 것 같은데 그렇게 보면 닉스 400조 영업이익이 과연 가능할지..


Summary: Legacy foundry prices rising into shortage; bullish on legacy foundry sector.

Legacy foundry basket: UMC, SMIC, United Micro

What did I say? Everything is going to go into shortage.

Legacy foundry pricing is going up. https://t.co/bYTwui6b53

UMC Wafer Price 📈📈📈 https://t.co/xf8uu3xS4t https://t.co/Ly6cEfmurW


Summary: Bullish AMAT on structural advantage from broad equipment portfolio enabling bundled fab solutions vs single-tool specialists.

AMAT’s strength is that even if each individual tool may lag competitors in performance, AMAT has an extremely broad equipment portfolio, allowing it to propose bundled solutions across multiple tools. That gives them a structural advantage over companies that focus on refining individual tools one by one. After all, a fab does not run on a single piece of equipment.

$AMAT


Summary: Bullish Ibiden as a beneficiary of tight substrate supply chain, with customers prepaying to secure capacity.

Ibiden Co. Ltd 4062.T Japan ABF substrate

“A couple of customers have prepaid for substrates, because the substrate supply chain is very tight – so I need to put up the money to secure this material…(and it shows) the commitment to me – so that’s very exciting.”

LFG Ibiden!!!

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan sat down with CNBC’s Jim Cramer to talk about Apple; Intel 14A rivaling TSMC's top chip production technology; Shortages of CPUs and substrates; and the state of Intel's turnaround.

How to know when Intel signs Apple or other foundry customers:
Intel CEO


Summary: Author reads Samsung/Hynix push for multi-year LTAs as a bearish signal — memory companies locking in prices because they expect prices to fall, not rise.

Memory sector basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

To be honest, the fact that they are only signing new LTAs is somewhat concerning to me.

Because that essentially suggests that memory companies do not expect memory prices to rise much further from here.

Think about it. If prices were going to keep rising, would they really try to lock them in now? The only reason to lock in prices would be if they believe prices are going to come down.

One-year contracts are a thing of the past… Samsung and SK hynix won't sell without 3–5 year long-term supply agreements

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have effectively abandoned the practice of signing one-year short-term memory supply contracts with global big tech https://t.co/hzN7eJhgm6


Samsung and SK hynix won't sell without 3–5 year long-term supply agreements


Unimicron expects revenue growth to accelerate further in 2Q as the impact of price hikes is gradually reflected. Unimicron's utilization rates for ABF, BT substrates, and HDI all reached around 90% in 1Q and are expected to remain at high levels in 2Q

Summary: Bullish Unimicron: revenue growth accelerating in 2Q on price hikes, 90% utilization, 40% ABF capacity expansion, AI revenue rising from 40% to 60%.

Unimicron Technology listed on TWSE as 3037.TW

▶ Taiwanese ABF + HDI substrate maker Unimicron reported April revenue of NT$13,932.8mn, up 6.5% MoM and 27.6% YoY

- Monthly revenue hit a new all-time high.
- Supply-demand imbalance for ABF substrates is intensifying, driven by AI server platform upgrades and rising demand for high-speed computing.
- Unimicron expects revenue growth to accelerate further in 2Q as the impact of price hikes is gradually reflected.
- Unimicron’s utilization rates for ABF, BT substrates, and HDI all reached around 90% in 1Q and are expected to remain at high levels in 2Q.
- The company plans to increase ABF substrate capacity by around 40% this year, while AI-related revenue contribution is expected to rise from about 40% last year to 60% this year.


Summary: Long ASML; hopes TSMC capex guidance boosts ASML shares.

I hope C.C. Wei blesses us with even more capex on this earnings call, so my ASML shares can go up.


Summary: Added to Murata position; ongoing long.

Murata Manufacturing 6981.T Japan MLCC leader

It feels like everyone is gradually starting to realize this.

P.S. I recently added to my Murata position. https://t.co/trMvuFiEeh


Summary: BofA: Anthropic cloud spend on AWS could drive $1.3B+ Q1 QoQ growth, well above ~$1B consensus, plus $1B+ more in Q2; bullish AMZN upside surprise.

BofA: Anthropic's Claude Revenue Growth Trajectory Could Surprise AWS to the Upside

Anthropic's ARR increased by approximately $21 billion during Q1 (from $9 billion to $30 billion, see Exhibit 1), implying a quarter-over-quarter revenue increase of over $3 billion. Given that a significant portion of Anthropic's workloads run on AWS (Anthropic has reaffirmed that AWS remains its primary cloud provider and training partner), and factoring in the quarter-over-quarter increase in training-related spending, we estimate that Anthropic-related revenue alone could contribute over $1.3 billion in quarter-over-quarter growth to AWS revenue in Q1. This significantly exceeds the current Street consensus, which implies approximately $1 billion in quarter-over-quarter growth (we estimate Amazon's total quarter-over-quarter growth could reach $2 billion). Looking ahead to Q2, we project that Anthropic alone could contribute an additional $1 billion-plus in quarter-over-quarter growth.

$AMZN


Summary: Bullish Advantest: SoC share 56%→66%, first silicon photonics ATE order; stock deserves premium valuation.

Advantest earnings highlights:

- SoC tester market share increased from 56% in CY24 to 66% in CY25, clearly reinforcing its advantage over Teradyne.
- The company received its first high-volume ATE order for silicon photonics.

One-line take: Advantest clearly proved why its stock deserves to trade at a premium.


Summary: Bullish ASML on continued substantial DUV equipment sales to China going forward.

I think ASML will continue to sell a substantial amount of DUV equipment to China going forward. ASML probably knows that too, which is why they set up such a large booth at Semicon China, right?

At Semicon Shanghai one of the most interesting booth’s on display was the ASML booth. Last year it was a single space in a corner of a hall, with a few staff. This year, it was front and center taking up several booths’ worth of space and many staffers. 2025 vs 2026 https://t.co/odaepYLvg3


Summary: CCL shortage crisis with prices +74.5% YoY drives bullish case for Doosan (sole Blackwell CCL supplier), Samsung Electro-Mechanics, and Daeduck Electronics as demand surges across AI/data center/auto.

Doosan Electronics (CCL for Blackwell) 006280.KS

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

"Even China Has No Volumes"... CCL Shortage Reaches Crisis Level

A PCB manufacturer in the Seoul metropolitan area recently placed advance orders worth 10 billion won with two Taiwanese CCL (copper clad laminate) producers, EMC and TUC. The volume is more than five times the company's average monthly usage of 1.5 to 2 billion won. The company's CEO said, "We placed bulk orders out of concern about a CCL shortage, but we have no idea when they'll actually arrive," adding, "I've been in the PCB business for over 20 years, and this is the first time we've been unable to manufacture products because we couldn't get CCL."

CCL Import Prices Break Through $20,000 Per Ton

Prices for CCL — a core PCB material — are surging as supply falls dramatically short of demand. CCL is a panel made by laminating a thin copper foil onto an insulating substrate, and it functions as the key building-block material for PCBs. The shortage has spread as demand has surged simultaneously across major advanced industries, including AI semiconductors, data centers, and autonomous vehicles.

According to data released by the Korea Customs Service on May 3, the import unit price of CCL came to $20,728 per ton in March — up 74.5% from $11,880 in the same month last year. This is the first time the CCL import unit price has broken above $20,000/ton since the relevant statistics began being compiled in 2000. The biggest driver behind the spike in CCL import prices is rising demand for CCL used in AI chips. On top of this, the use of high-spec CCL is also increasing across 5G/6G telecom infrastructure, automotive autonomous driving systems, and data center servers.

CCL Players' Share Prices Rally Sharply

Korea's CCL supply chain is built around copper foil suppliers (Lotte Energy Materials, SK Nexilis), CCL manufacturers (Doosan, LG Chem), and PCB substrate manufacturers (Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Daeduck Electronics). PCBs are split between premium products — which go into the most advanced GPUs such as Nvidia's Blackwell — and general-purpose products. Premium semiconductor substrates in this top tier use CCL based on high-grade T-glass material, while small- and mid-sized domestic PCB makers use E-glass-based CCL to produce general-purpose PCBs.

As demand for high-spec PCBs has surged and unit prices have jumped, CCL-related companies have moved quickly to reallocate their limited production lines toward high value-added products. This is the backdrop to the spike in CCL export prices: last month, the average CCL export unit price stood at $30,998, up 65.2% year-on-year.

Companies in the global CCL manufacturing supply chain are seeing both earnings and share prices rally sharply. Industry participants attribute the CCL price hikes primarily to PCBs going into Nvidia GPUs. Doosan, known to be the sole supplier of CCL for Blackwell, saw its share price jump from 152,300 won at the end of April 2024 to 1,596,000 won at the end of last month — a more than 10x gain over two years. Over the same period, Samsung Electro-Mechanics rose 5.3x and Daeduck Electronics rose 4.8x.

Even Pivoting to China — "No Volumes Available"

By contrast, companies left out of the advanced industries are unable to secure adequate CCL supply, with some now facing the prospect of having to halt factory operations. Major Korean semiconductor equipment makers, in particular, are reportedly suffering from CCL supply constraints. Some companies are reportedly switching from ocean freight to air freight in an effort to pull forward their CCL delivery schedules. One industry source said, "In the past, you could secure the volumes you wanted just by waiting about a month after placing an order, but now even if you place an order today, you have to wait at least six months to receive any volumes."

Soaring CCL prices are also a heavy burden. With FX rates and oil prices also rising, not only product prices but also transport costs are climbing sharply. With CCL supply schedules becoming increasingly uncertain, many firms are worried about missing the PCB delivery timelines they originally committed to. Another industry source said, "We've secured Chinese suppliers in addition to our existing channels, but we've been hit by a string of delivery-delay notices recently. There's no clear-cut countermeasure, and it feels hopeless."

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https://t.co/lOgUHYzluY


Daeduck Electronics 353200.KS Korea PCB maker


Summary: Watchlist leans: Advantest for test-step upside; Montage over Rambus on CXL exposure; QCOM bullish if Nuvia data-center CPU launches in June.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

My current watchlist:

Advantest — As GPU architectures become increasingly complex, the number of required testing steps could rise exponentially. Could there still be more upside here?

Montage — If CPU adoption increases, usage of memory interfaces should also surge. I prefer Montage over Rambus in particular because Montage also has exposure to CXL.

Delton Technology — A specialized CPU substrate manufacturer with a meaningful presence in the CPU substrate market.

Qualcomm — If Qualcomm really launches its data-center Nuvia CPU in June, it could potentially reverse the current overly short-biased sentiment.

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Sorry, The reason I prefer Montage is that it has a higher share of revenue from physical chip sales than Rambus.


I prefer Montage over Rambus in particular because Montage also has exposure to CXL

Montage Technology 688008.SS China STAR Market memory IC


could potentially reverse the current overly short-biased sentiment


Summary: Shares KeyBanc supply chain survey: INTC Overweight PT $70, negative AVGO/ARM, slightly negative NVDA.

From KeyBanc's supply chain survey report:

$INTC (positive, Overweight, increasing estimates, increasing PT to $70 from $65) – Positive takeaways include: 1) Server CPU demand remains outsized; 2) INTC increases pricing twice for both server and client CPUs; 3) 18A yields continue to improve to 65% as Panther Lake ramp continues; 4) Wins 14A design win at AAPL for low-end Mseries processor for MacBook and iPad; 5) Google’s “Humu Fish” TPU will use EMIB-T, which we size at $4B-$5B in revenues.

KeyB neg $AVGO, neg $ARM, slightly neg $NVDA: https://t.co/VM4ZiiVx8x


Summary: JPM survey: AVGO sole TPU v9 supplier (long); Google SRAM engine hurts MediaTek TAM (short); possible bearish read on INTC EMIB-T losing to CoWoS-L.

JPM's supply chain survey indicates that Google is developing an SRAM-based compute engine in collaboration with Marvell (a concept similar to NVIDIA's Groq LPU), and this is expected to negatively impact MediaTek's TAM. (@FundaAI made a really impressive call.)

Additionally, JPM forecasts that in Google's TPU v9, $AVGO (Broadcom) is highly likely to be the sole supplier using TSMC's CoWoS-L technology.
(Bearish on $INTC's EMIB-T?)


this is expected to negatively impact MediaTek's TAM


Summary: Upgrades SNDK to Buy with $1,277 PT on surging NAND ASPs, KV cache demand, and superior valuation vs Micron; implies relative underperformance for MU.

【GF Overseas Electronics & Communications】
SanDisk FY3Q26 Preview: NAND Is in a Better Position

☄ SanDisk FY3Q26 Preview: NAND Is in a Better Position

☀ Upgrade to Buy, new PT of $1,277: SNDK reports FY3Q26 on April 30. Combined with the recent contract price trajectory, we expect both results and guidance to come in strong. NAND ASP rose in the 70% range in FY1Q26, and is accelerating further to +90–100% in FY2Q26. The biggest upside surprise this cycle is coming from consumer electronics: despite volume cuts from domestic Chinese Android OEMs, the supply-demand balance remains tight, pushing smartphone makers to accept price hikes to $0.25/GB — versus just $0.12/GB in FY1Q26. In eSSD, the current negotiation range is $0.35–0.37/GB, driving blended ASP up ~90% QoQ. On this basis, we forecast FY3Q revenue of $4.9B at 71.5% OPM, and guidance for FY4Q26 revenue north of $10B with OPM above 84%. Another important catalyst is the step-up in contract liabilities, reflecting LTA prepayments flowing through. We forecast FY2027 EPS of $286.52, and apply 4x FY2027E P/B to derive our $1,277 price target.

☀ KV cache demand growth accelerates into 2027: SNDK has indicated that KV cache will generate 100EB of incremental NAND demand in 2027, with demand potentially doubling in 2028. However, given the recent surge in token demand, OpenRouter traffic up 17x, and accelerating AI agent adoption, we view this forecast as conservative. 100EB already equates to ~7% of total 2027 NAND demand, and even accounting for improvements in compression rates, demand still looks set to grow exponentially. On the supply side, NAND capacity additions remain measured: SK Hynix's core focus is on technology migration, while new capacity is concentrated in SNDK/Kioxia's K2 fab, Samsung's P5 line (coming online in 2028), and YMTC.

☀ Cost optimization may reshape the NAND vs. DRAM competitive landscape: We expect the memory market to approach $1 trillion in size by 2027, with CSPs accounting for 40–45% of total demand and memory spend representing over 40% of CSP CAPEX. On this basis, we believe the cost advantage will progressively tilt the revenue mix toward NAND (server DRAM is priced at ~$2.2/Gb, vs. eSSD at just $0.35–0.37/GB). Tiered storage architecture is the core structural driver of rising NAND share in AI workloads, and the arrival of HBF from 2028 onward should further amplify this. On valuation, Micron currently trades at 4.3x FY2027E P/E versus SNDK at just 3.4x — on both multiple and long-term positioning, SNDK offers more compelling allocation value.

$SNDK


Micron currently trades at 4.3x FY2027E P/E versus SNDK at just 3.4x — on both multiple and long-term positioning, SNDK offers more compelling allocation value


Samsung Foundry is expected to swing to profit as early as the second half of this year, or at the latest in the first half of next year. After a prolonged slump, it has clearly entered a recovery phase.

Summary: Samsung foundry 4nm fully booked through next year; HBM4 + Big Tech orders drive expected H2 profitability turnaround after prolonged losses.

Samsung Foundry's 4nm "Fully Booked" Through Next Year… Set for H2 Profitability Turnaround

Samsung Electronics' foundry flagship 4nm line has entered "fully booked" status through next year. The result reflects the convergence of HBM4 volume ramp and orders from global Big Tech. Industry observers expect the chronically loss-making foundry division to fire its first signal of recovery as early as the second half of this year.

According to the semiconductor industry on the 3rd, Samsung Electronics' 4nm foundry process has recently secured order volumes extending into next year's production. A semiconductor industry source who requested anonymity said, "The 4nm process has recently demonstrated better-than-expected stability among global customers, and demand is exploding," adding, "The line is running so tightly that it is effectively impossible to take additional orders through next year."

The core driver of these orders is HBM4. Samsung Electronics produces the base die mounted in its HBM4 on the 4nm foundry process. As the company begins full-scale HBM4 supply to AI accelerator vendors such as NVIDIA and AMD, the utilization rate of the supporting 4nm foundry line has likewise reached its ceiling.

Demand for the 4nm process is not confined to memory. Global fabless companies that previously relied on TSMC are now knocking on Samsung's door, factoring in supply-chain diversification and cost-effectiveness. NVIDIA and Google currently appear on the customer roster for Samsung's 4nm node. With improved yields and verified power efficiency (performance per watt), the "love calls" from Big Tech continue to come in.

With high-value-added HBM4 and global Big Tech volumes filling the 4nm line, expectations for an earnings turnaround are also rising. The 4nm process has already completed its large-scale investment phase, easing the depreciation burden. The structure is one in which profitability rises sharply as utilization is maximized.

A source at a Samsung Foundry partner company assessed, "Thanks to the stabilization of the 4nm process and the strong demand anchor of HBM4, Samsung Foundry is expected to swing to profit as early as the second half of this year, or at the latest in the first half of next year," adding, "After a prolonged slump, it has clearly entered a recovery phase."

That said, the industry points to the new fab under construction in Taylor, Texas, as the biggest variable for future earnings. The substantial initial operating costs and labor expenses incurred during fab completion and ramp-up preparation could swing reported earnings depending on how they are accounted for on the books.

Another semiconductor industry source said, "Since the Taylor fab currently being built sits on U.S. soil, whether the related performance is booked under the U.S. subsidiary (DSA) or consolidated into the domestic foundry results remains to be seen."

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https://t.co/acLrMbO2s2


Summary: Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins Broadcom as FC-BGA substrate customer; LG Innotek also named as key AI supply-chain partner — bullish on both Korean component makers.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics listed on KOSPI as 009150.KS

[Exclusive] Samsung Electro-Mechanics to Supply AI Substrates to Broadcom

Riding the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, not only memory semiconductor companies but also Korean electronic component makers have moved to the center of the global materials, parts, and equipment (MPE) supply chain. Major players including Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek have emerged as key partners for Big Tech firms seeking to resolve AI bottlenecks. Analysts say an era of "component-supplier supremacy" has arrived, with Korean companies now holding the upper hand in the supply chain — a reversal from the past subcontractor-style structure in which they relied on orders from finished-goods makers.

According to industry sources on the 21st, Samsung Electro-Mechanics has secured Broadcom of the U.S. as a new customer for Flip Chip Ball Grid Array (FC-BGA) AI semiconductor substrates. Following major Big Tech names such as NVIDIA, Google, Amazon, and Apple, Broadcom has now joined Samsung Electro-Mechanics' customer roster. Samsung Electro-Mechanics will begin supplying substrates for Broadcom's most advanced AI accelerators starting in the second half of this year.

FC-BGA is a core component that connects semiconductor chips to the mainboard, transmitting electrical signals and power. Only a handful of companies are capable of manufacturing these substrates — Samsung Electro-Mechanics, LG Innotek, and Japan's Ibiden and Murata among them.

A tectonic shift is also underway in the Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor (MLCC) market. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is supplying large volumes of ultra-high-capacitance MLCCs for AI servers to NVIDIA and other major global Big Tech firms. AI servers use three to four times more MLCCs than conventional servers. In particular, these components must withstand high-temperature, high-pressure environments, requiring advanced technical capabilities, and unit prices run three to five times higher than standard products. This is why Samsung Electro-Mechanics and other Korean companies with specialized technologies, such as Amotech, are being courted by Big Tech.

There is also a growing view that the global AI supply chain is being restructured in such a way that it can no longer be sustained without Korean component makers. This is because Korean firms possess unrivaled technological capabilities in addressing the critical bottlenecks that determine the performance of AI accelerators.

An industry official said, "Korean companies have demonstrated irreplaceable technological capabilities in high-performance substrates and materials, and are now facing an unprecedented golden window of opportunity."

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https://t.co/PtLYll9scl


Major players including Samsung Electro-Mechanics and LG Innotek have emerged as key partners for Big Tech firms seeking to resolve AI bottlenecks

LG Innotek 011070.KS Korea camera modules


Summary: Shares Bernstein's raised PT of $1,250 (blue-sky $3,000) on SNDK based on 11x through-cycle EPS multiple.

Bernstein raises $SNDK target price to $1,250, with a blue-sky upside scenario of $3,000.

Base-case valuation applies an 11x multiple to through-cycle earnings, defined as the average of FY26-29 Bernstein base-case EPS of $113.93.

In the blue-sky scenario, applying a 13x multiple to peak earnings yields a valuation of approximately $3,000 per share, or roughly $2,950 based on bull-case peak EPS estimates.


AMD's earnings could be worth getting excited about

Summary: Bullish AMD into earnings: picked up TSMC 4/5nm capacity vacated by Qualcomm/MediaTek; CPU supply tight with customers lining up.

I didn’t realize this before. I naturally assumed Intel would have a supply advantage over AMD in CPUs.

But Qualcomm and MediaTek apparently cut their TSMC 4/5nm orders because mid- to low-end smartphone shipments literally collapsed. AMD seems to have taken over that capacity.

Right now, even CPUs produced on older nodes are being bought up by customers lining up for supply. AMD’s earnings could be worth getting excited about.


Now I'm debating whether I should add more Advantest

Summary: Author considers adding to Advantest position after Teradyne acknowledged its CPO testing capabilities on earnings call.

Interesting…

According to GFHK’s analysis, low TSMC SoIC yields have led the industry to lower its near-term — i.e., 2026 — CPO shipment forecasts.

For what it’s worth, I was a bit disappointed that Teradyne seemed to acknowledge Advantest’s capabilities during this earnings call.

I had thought Teradyne would be overwhelmingly dominant in CPO testing. Now I’m debating whether I should add more Advantest.

[GF Overseas Electronics & Communications]
Teradyne 1Q26 Review: Entering a Transition Period in 2H26

☄ Teradyne 1Q26 Review: Entering a Transition Period in 2H26

☀ Strong 1Q results, but full-year 2026 guidance fell short of expectations:
Teradyne reported 1Q26 revenue of


Summary: Positions DRAM ETF as the fitting pure-play vehicle on the memory cycle for investors wanting direct exposure to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

Today, ticker 'DRAM' finally begins trading.

With roughly three-quarters of its portfolio concentrated in the memory Big 3 — Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron — this ETF is effectively a direct investment vehicle for the memory semiconductor industry.

In particular, for overseas retail investors who have faced regulatory or institutional barriers to buying Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix directly, $DRAM could serve as a highly attractive alternative.

Of course, $EWY also carries significant exposure to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, but it includes sizable allocations to other major Korean corporates such as Hyundai Motor.

So if your goal is to take a pure bet on the memory cycle itself, $DRAM is the more fitting choice.

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More info: https://t.co/WNeJz9xTdj


Summary: Bullish Ajinomoto on 30% ABF price hike + near-monopoly pricing power; bullish IC substrate sector on AI-driven Super Expansion Cycle through 2027–2028.

Ajinomoto Japan 2802.T; dominant ABF market share

▶ Ajinomoto Raises ABF Substrate Film Prices by 30%

- Japan’s Ajinomoto has decided to raise prices for its core ABF build-up film by 30%, with the new prices set to take effect from Q3 2026.

- Taiwanese package substrate makers said they have officially received notice of the price increase, at a time when cost pressures remain elevated across the IC substrate supply chain.

- Specific new pricing is still under negotiation with suppliers, but in the near term, the hike is expected to increase production costs before being gradually passed through to product ASPs.

- Despite the ABF price increase, the largest cost burden is still understood to come from repeated price hikes in upstream raw materials, particularly CCL.

- With urgent demand from AI chip customers continuing, quarterly price increases for ABF and BT substrates are expected to persist through year-end. The magnitude of price hikes could widen further in the second half.

- Ajinomoto holds more than 95% share of the global ABF market, giving it strong pricing power across the supply chain.
IC substrate makers noted that the previous price increase took place around early 2025, roughly a year ago, and said the latest 30% increase is also a “reasonable level” given strong customer demand.

- Unlike Nittobo, whose conservative capacity expansion stance has deepened the shortage of T-Glass fiberglass for IC substrates, Ajinomoto had already anticipated changes in ABF supply-demand dynamics three years ago and moved ahead with proactive capacity expansion.

- As a result, despite its near-monopolistic market position, the supply bottleneck is viewed as relatively limited.
Ajinomoto recently announced plans to build a third ABF plant in Gifu Prefecture, Japan, in order to address demand beyond 2030.

- The company has secured land for the project with an investment of around JPY 12 billion, or approximately USD 76 million, and plans to begin construction in 2028, with mass production targeted for 2032.
The new Gifu plant is expected to be much larger in scale than Ajinomoto’s existing production sites in Kanagawa and Gunma prefectures.

- In addition, as AI chip packaging layer counts are expected to expand from the current 3+3 level to 11+11 layers, and potentially to 13+13 layers after 2030, ABF demand is likely to sustain structural growth.

- According to the industry, as the AI CPU, GPU, and ASIC upgrade cycle accelerates, demand is rising for larger substrate area and higher layer counts. As a result, ABF substrates are understood to have re-entered a supply shortage phase from 1H 2026.

- Shortages are also emerging simultaneously across the upstream value chain, including fiberglass, copper foil, and drill bits. Therefore, the ABF supply-demand imbalance in 2027–2028 is more likely to intensify than ease.

- The industry expects the IC substrate sector to enter a so-called “Super Expansion Cycle” over the next two to three years, which should improve order visibility across the sector.

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https://t.co/koAzxvobUe


The industry expects the IC substrate sector to enter a so-called 'Super Expansion Cycle' over the next two to three years, which should improve order visibility across the sector

IC substrate basket: Unimicron, Unitech, Tripod, Ibiden


consensus is that Anthropic's 10-trillion-parameter model, Mythos, was trained on NVL72

Summary: Shares JPM note implying Anthropic's massive model trained on NVDA NVL72 with no ASIC threat; bullish for NVDA demand.

*JPM: The consensus is that Anthropic’s 10-trillion-parameter model, Mythos, was trained on NVL72.
*JPM: Our analysts are not currently seeing anything that would suggest Anthropic is developing its own ASIC.

$NVDA


Samsung Electronics raised from KRW 270,000 to KRW 330,000... valuations remain remarkably cheap. On Daishin's revised estimates, Samsung and SK Hynix trade at just 4.8x and 4.0x 2027E P/E

Summary: Shares/adopts Daishin Buy upgrade on Samsung (PT KRW 330k) and SK Hynix (PT KRW 1.7M) on memory supercycle; bearish Kioxia and SanDisk on legacy DRAM shortage disadvantage.

Daishin Securities analyst Hyung-Geun Ryu published a memory report today, packed with significant alpha.

Key takeaways:

1. Apple is exploiting the memory shortage amid growth stagnation in the North American market. As I've noted previously, Daishin Securities estimates that Apple is capitalizing on competitors' struggles by pursuing an aggressive shipment strategy to expand the iOS ecosystem and strengthen its dominance in the end-device market. In other words, Apple is hoarding memory to prevent competitors from producing smartphones. They've even reportedly raised their iPhone shipment target for this year to 240 million units. As Apple stockpiles memory, Chinese smartphone OEMs have panicked into buying as well.

- Some Chinese customers accepted mobile memory prices in 2Q26 that are 90–100% higher QoQ, following similar increases in 1Q26.
- As a result, 2Q26 mobile memory prices are expected to rise ~80% QoQ.
- Despite this, customers are not pushing back on pricing. Per Daishin's channel checks, some mobile customers are locking in annual contracts at the sharply elevated 2Q26 prices and seeking to increase purchase volumes in H2.

2. DRAM capacity shortages are forcing a reduction in HBM4E stack counts. Originally expected at 16-hi and 20-hi, the products are now shifting to 12-hi and 16-hi.

3. HBM4E I/O speed is increasing to 15–16 Gbps, pushing the commodity DRAM-to-HBM trade ratio from the previous 3:1 to as high as 5:1.

4. Legacy DRAM shortages in SSDs are becoming severe. The three major DRAM makers, which can self-supply legacy DRAM (DDR4) used in SSDs, will gain a structural advantage in NAND as well. Bearish Kioxia, SanDisk.

5. Kioxia is expected to increase this year's capex by 40% vs. prior plans.

6. Samsung Electronics earnings revisions: 2026E OP raised from KRW 307T ($208.27B) to KRW 342T ($232.02B); 2027E OP raised from KRW 335T ($227.27B) to KRW 410T ($278.1B).

7. SK Hynix earnings revisions: 2026E OP raised from KRW 232T ($157.3B) to KRW 263T ($178.4B); 2027E OP raised from KRW 260T ($176.3B) to KRW 332T ($225.2B).

8. Target price upgrades: Samsung Electronics raised from KRW 270,000 to KRW 330,000; SK Hynix raised from KRW 1,450,000 to KRW 1,700,000.

9. Despite the upgrades, valuations remain remarkably cheap. On Daishin's revised estimates, Samsung and SK Hynix trade at just 4.8x and 3.9x 2026E P/E, and 4.0x and 3.1x 2027E P/E, respectively.


SK Hynix raised from KRW 1,450,000 to KRW 1,700,000... valuations remain remarkably cheap... 3.9x and 3.1x 2027E P/E


SanDisk (spun off from WD) listed on Nasdaq as SNDK


Demand is bound to grow exponentially... Astera Labs, a leading retimer company, is also seeing revenue grow. Its first-quarter revenue this year came in at $308.4 million, nearly double the figure from the same period a year earlier.

Summary: Bullish ALAB as the leading retimer beneficiary of exponentially growing PCIe-driven demand in AI servers.

In the AI Era, the 'Retimer' Rises — The Key Component That Resuscitates Signals

The retimer is emerging as a hidden core component of the AI chip era. A retimer is a part that sits between chips, reviving weakened signals and retransmitting them. Its role is growing as communication speeds between the CPU and GPU increase.

Inside a server, CPU-to-CPU and CPU-to-GPU communication runs over PCIe (Peripheral Component Interconnect Express). As PCIe advances through each generation, communication speeds rise, giving way to channel loss — the phenomenon in which the signal weakens and its waveform becomes distorted.

On the 24th, a senior official at a domestic system semiconductor company said, "CPUs talk to each other, and CPUs and GPUs communicate heavily over PCIe," adding, "As these distances grow longer, speeds get faster, and channel counts increase, chips called 'retimers' have started to see widespread use."

Today's high-performance servers use PCIe 5.0, which runs at 32 GT/s (gigatransfers per second). At this speed, even with ultra-low-loss printed circuit boards (PCBs), the distance over which a signal can arrive intact is extremely short. The retimer revives the dying signal at this point, enabling high-speed processor-to-processor communication even over longer distances.

In the past, redrivers were used. A redriver only amplifies a weakened signal and cannot fully restore it. The retimer, by contrast, restores the signal completely. This difference is what is driving up demand for retimers.

The key point is that as PCIe advances through each generation, faster speeds shorten the distance a signal can travel intact. As that distance shrinks, more retimers are needed. Demand is bound to grow exponentially. The same official forecast, "As communication speeds rise, the number of retimers required will increase several times over from current levels."

Astera Labs, a leading retimer company, is also seeing revenue grow. Its first-quarter revenue this year came in at $308.4 million, nearly double the figure from the same period a year earlier.

$ALAB

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https://t.co/YizYQmOrlH


Summary: Bullish INTC: buying back Ireland fab stake signals improved financials and optimism about CPU business.

Intel buying back the stake in its Ireland fab is genuinely surprising. It is remarkable that the company’s financial position improved so much in such a short period of time. It can also be interpreted as a sign that the company is very optimistic about its CPU business going forward.

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https://t.co/cWp95B7ZbZ


What makes the LTAs being discussed this time different from the ones in the past is that hyperscalers are paying upfront deposits. That's very interesting.

Summary: Bullish SK Hynix: hyperscaler LTAs with upfront deposits signal stronger demand lock-in than prior agreements.

What makes the LTAs being discussed this time different from the ones in the past is that hyperscalers are paying upfront deposits. That’s very interesting. https://t.co/0rfB9gyw92

MS and Google Pursuing LTA with SK Hynix

SK Hynix is entering into long-term supply agreements (LTAs) for DRAM with major global AI companies including Microsoft (MS) and Google. Big Tech is moving to lock in DRAM—a product known for high price volatility—over extended periods. https://t.co/8qYYpygMQu


Summary: Bullish memory sector: agentic AI drives CPU DRAM integration 4x typical scale, prolonging shortage.

'According to industry sources on the 2nd, CPU manufacturers are pursuing the integration of 300–400GB of DRAM into AI CPUs. This is up to four times the overwhelming scale compared to typical CPU products (96–256GB).'

It’s similar to what I’ve been thinking. Agentic AI will benefit CPUs as well, but it will make memory even more scarce.

AI CPUs Are Devouring DRAM — Memory 'Shortage' to Last Another Year

The memory industry has posted record-breaking results driven by commodity DRAM prices that have surged more than 100%, and with the proliferation of AI-purposed central processing units (CPUs) now coming into https://t.co/5UvPYMk0pz


Summary: Samsung strike could disrupt memory output 1–2 months, benefiting SK Hynix and Micron on tighter supply; Samsung itself faces production and shipment losses.

"Samsung Union Strike Could Disrupt Memory Mass Production for At Least 1 Month"… Industry Concerns Mount

Labor-management conflict at Samsung Electronics is intensifying over the size of performance bonuses. The Samsung Group Cho-gi-eop Union's Samsung Electronics chapter (hereinafter "the union") reaffirmed on the 23rd at a resolution rally its intent to push ahead with an 18-day general strike starting on the 21st of next month.

On the 25th, concerns emerged within the semiconductor industry that the Samsung Electronics union strike could have a significant ripple effect on the memory semiconductor market.

While the union has announced an 18-day strike period, when factoring in the time required to bring equipment back online to normal operating conditions, production disruption could last at least one month or more. The impact on mass production stretches to at least double that period. There are also forecasts that, amid the memory supercycle, only Samsung Electronics' competitors will reap windfall benefits.

One semiconductor engineer explained, "If setup and maintenance (CS) work on semiconductor equipment is suspended for an extended period, restoring equipment to normal operation can take more than a month," adding, "The impact could be even greater in a supercycle situation where memory shipments need to be aggressively ramped up."

The union strike is not an issue confined to Samsung Electronics alone. If Samsung Electronics—which holds the world's largest production capacity—experiences disruptions in mass production, the memory supply crunch could worsen further. For global Big Tech and IT companies, this means greater pressure from rising manufacturing costs.

In such a scenario, competitors such as SK Hynix and Micron could enjoy the windfall of a steeper rise in memory prices. Volatility is expected to be particularly pronounced in high-performance server DRAM and eSSD (enterprise SSD) segments, where only a handful of companies are capable of mass production.

Another semiconductor engineer said, "When personnel are pulled out of the fab, equipment starts going offline one by one, creating problems," and added, "If memory equipment isn't properly managed, output can immediately drop by 10–20%."

The union is demanding that 15% of annual operating profit be distributed as performance bonuses and that the bonus system be made more transparent. Approximately 40,000 people (police estimate) gathered at the resolution rally held on the 23rd at Samsung Electronics' Pyeongtaek campus, where the same message was emphasized. More than half of the 76,100 members of Samsung Electronics' first-ever majority union in the company's history attended the rally. If a labor-management agreement is not reached, the union will proceed with a general strike.

At the rally, Union Chairman Choi Seung-ho warned, "If the company treats devoted union members as mere numbers, we too will respond with numbers—by demonstrating the massive production disruptions and losses that a strike will cause." Estimated losses from the strike have been pegged at up to 30 trillion won.

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https://t.co/rQlCFt8C0w


production disruption could last at least one month or more. The impact on mass production stretches to at least double that period


Earnings surprise: +49.7% — Highest operating profit in the past five quarters — Highest operating margin in the past five quarters: 42.8%

Summary: Samsung 1Q26 blowout: op profit KRW 57.2T vs consensus KRW 38.2T (+49.7%), highest margin in 5 quarters at 42.8%; durable beat implies bullish.

🔴 Samsung Electronics (Market Cap: KRW 1,321.3T)
📁 Preliminary Earnings Results Based on Consolidated Financial Statements — Fair Disclosure
 Apr. 30, 2026, 08:46 (Current price: KRW 226,000, +1.8%)
Revenue: KRW 133.8734T (Consensus: KRW 117.4850T, +13.9%)
 Operating Profit: KRW 57.2328T (Consensus: KRW 38.2309T, +49.7%)
 Net Income: KRW 47.2253T (Consensus: KRW 31.5201T, +49.8%)
* Recent Earnings
 (Period / Revenue / Operating Profit / Net Income)

1Q26: KRW 133.8734T / KRW 57.2328T / KRW 47.2253T
 4Q25: KRW 93.8374T / KRW 20.0737T / KRW 19.6417T
 3Q25: KRW 86.0617T / KRW 12.1661T / KRW 12.2257T
 2Q25: KRW 74.5663T / KRW 4.6761T / KRW 5.1164T
 1Q25: KRW 79.1405T / KRW 6.6853T / KRW 8.2229T

- Earnings surprise: +49.7%
- Highest operating profit in the past five quarters
- Highest operating margin in the past five quarters: 42.8%


Macronix returned to profitability in the first quarter of 2026, with rising prices continuing to drive operational growth... surpassing the previous monthly record... Revenue for the first four months of the year totaled NT$16.38 billion, up 93.5% year over year

Summary: Macronix and Winbond named as dominant 2D NAND beneficiaries with expanding share, pricing power, and margin expansion as major producers exit the market.

Macronix International 2337.TW Taiwan NOR flash

2D NAND shortage spirals after Samsung, Micron, and rivals exit market

Major international NAND manufacturers are gradually exiting the mature-process 2D NAND market, triggering panic buying and a sharp spike in prices. Industry sources suggest the supply shortage may be difficult to resolve. While vendors are seeking alternative solutions, product specifications are expected to become increasingly polarized as scarcity persists.

Supply chain sources said multi-level cell (MLC) NAND has become extremely difficult to secure, with prices rising at least 20–30% in April 2026 alone. Spot market prices have climbed even faster. For example, MLC 64Gb 8GBx8 products are currently trading at US$19–20, with some offers reaching US$28, compared with only around US$6–7 at the end of 2025 — representing an increase of roughly 200–300%.

Single-level cell (SLC) NAND prices have also surged sharply. Spot prices for SLC 2Gb products recently reached around US$4–4.5, up roughly 120–150% from late 2025 levels.

Industry sources said that although other players are interested in entering the 2D NAND manufacturing market, second-hand equipment phased out by major NAND makers has recently become highly sought after. However, companies including Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia, and Micron Technology currently have no plans to license MLC technology externally, making it more difficult for new entrants to break into 2D NAND manufacturing.

The challenge is particularly acute for niche applications that remain dependent on 2D NAND, where transitioning to alternative products is difficult, and qualification cycles are typically lengthy. Although some Chinese manufacturers are interested in entering the market, their production capacity remains limited. End customers are also reluctant to take on higher supply risks, especially for critical applications.

The global NAND market is estimated to have reached around US$73 billion in 2025, with the six major NAND suppliers focusing heavily on 3D NAND development. Yet only around 1% of the overall NAND market remains tied to 2D NAND products. Despite the small share, price increases for both MLC and SLC products over the past six months have significantly outpaced those of 3D NAND.

Macronix and Winbond gain pricing power in shrinking 2D NAND market
Macronix and Winbond are expected to remain the leading suppliers of MLC and SLC NAND, respectively. Based on an estimated 2025 market value of around US$600 million, the two Taiwanese companies already account for roughly 59% of the 2D NAND market, with their combined share expected to expand further in 2026.

Macronix returned to profitability in the first quarter of 2026, with rising prices continuing to drive operational growth. April revenue reached NT$5.91 billion (US$188 million), up 33.7% sequentially and 153.7% from a year earlier, surpassing the previous monthly record of NT$5.68 billion set in September 2021. Revenue for the first four months of the year totaled NT$16.38 billion, up 93.5% year over year.

Macronix president Miin Wu said the company plans to gradually raise the proportion of NOR and NAND products, including eMMC, toward a 1:1 ratio through capacity expansion. He noted that current 4GB–32GB eMMC applications align closely with Macronix's product offerings.

Wu added that there remains a clear supply gap in MLC eMMC products, with shortages expected to persist for the foreseeable future. He estimated that meaningful new competition is unlikely to emerge for at least another three years.

Winbond recently said it will focus on maintaining a stable supply of SLC NAND and NOR Flash products and does not plan to enter the MLC NAND market.

The company expects SLC NAND bit growth to exceed 80% over the next year. In particular, its new 24nm process accounted for only 1% of Flash-related business in the first quarter of 2026, but the contribution of 24nm SLC NAND is expected to increase from the second quarter onward, gradually becoming a meaningful revenue driver. Winbond also expects SLC NAND gross margins to surpass those of NOR Flash as it pushes toward becoming a leading SLC NAND supplier.

Winbond president Chen Pei-ming said the current Flash shortage appears difficult to resolve and that the market is showing two clear trends.

The first involves products originally requiring only 16GB or 32GB storage being upgraded toward higher-capacity UFS solutions such as 36GB and 48GB. The second involves customers previously using 4GB eMMC solutions compressing or optimizing code to reduce storage requirements from above 1GB down to around 1GB, enabling the adoption of 8Gb SLC NAND products and creating new business opportunities.

---

https://t.co/W6a2xE8OFZ


Winbond expects SLC NAND gross margins to surpass those of NOR Flash as it pushes toward becoming a leading SLC NAND supplier... SLC NAND bit growth to exceed 80% over the next year

Winbond Electronics listed on TWSE as 2344.TW


Summary: Shares/endorses GF upgrade to Buy on SNDK with PT $1,277 ahead of FY3Q26 earnings on April 30.

So… smartphone NAND prices have already doubled in Q2, and even eSSD prices have surged massively?

…OPM of 71.5%? And FY4Q26 guidance at 84% OPM?

【GF Overseas Electronics & Communications】
SanDisk FY3Q26 Preview: NAND Is in a Better Position

☄ SanDisk FY3Q26 Preview: NAND Is in a Better Position

☀ Upgrade to Buy, new PT of $1,277: SNDK reports FY3Q26 on April 30. Combined with the recent contract price trajectory, we


Summary: Shares/adopts GF Overseas Buy on AMD with PT raised to $465, driven by data-center CPU growth, MI455/MI550 ramp, and new Anthropic partnership.

GF Overseas Electronics & Communications — AMD (AMD US, Buy): Key Focus Areas and Catalysts Ahead of Earnings Call

Buy rating, target price raised to US$465:
Following the recent share-price rally and Intel’s better-than-expected results, market expectations have already moved higher. However, we remain optimistic and outline the key issues to watch during and after the earnings call. Incorporating our updated pre-earnings preview and higher CPU/GPU shipment assumptions, we raise our 2026E/2027E EPS forecasts by 2%/6%, respectively. We lift our target price from US$311 to US$465, based on 38x 2027E P/E.

Strong CPU business and capacity:
We expect AMD’s data-center CPU business to grow 55%/48% YoY in 2026E/2027E, driven by:

1. CPU price increases in April / 4Q26;
2. ramp-up of the Venice platform in 3Q26;
3. market-share gains from product leadership and customer expansion.

In the near term, driven by cloud demand, we expect ODM server shipments to grow around 10% QoQ in 2Q. On the demand side, agentic AI is expected to drive the CPU-to-GPU ratio back toward a more balanced level, while AMD’s competitive advantage continues to expand with its N2-based Venice platform. Based on our ASE report published on April 29, we believe AMD has secured 160k–180k wafers of CoWoS capacity for 2027.

New partnership with Anthropic:
According to Wccftech’s April 17 report, supply constraints prompted Anthropic to sign an agreement with AMD to use MI450 chips. This could become a key focus of the upcoming earnings call. Unlike AMD’s five-year, 6GW partnerships with Meta/OpenAI in exchange for AMD warrants, we expect this collaboration to be more flexible in both GW scale and transaction structure. However, given Anthropic’s rapidly growing ARR, the first-year scale of the partnership could be larger.

MI455 progress:
Following our April 14 report, Demand Far Exceeds Supply, in which we noted a downward revision to MI455 shipments due to the complexity of its stacked design, we believe the supply chain is still maintaining its target of starting shipments in mid-3Q. Meanwhile, downstream readiness has improved with support from Wistron and Foxconn Industrial Internet. With multiple GW-scale customers including OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic, we expect strong MI455 demand to continue into 2027/2028.

MI550 versus Rubin Ultra:
As stated in our March 31 report, we believe Rubin Ultra has been changed to a dual-chip design, with a second MCM version used to connect two sets of dual chips, while 16-high HBM4e may be revised down to 12-high due to capacity constraints. For AMD, given its experience in 2.5D/3D packaging, we believe MI550 remains on track, using a four-chiplet / 8-XCD package with 12-high HBM4e. Combined with the 2nm process node, MI550, as a single GPU, could deliver superior performance.

$AMD


SEMCO is the only company in the world that operates both a silicon capacitor business and a substrate business... if a company can deliver both the substrate and the silicon capacitor to Intel's EMIB on a turnkey basis, that maximizes SEMCO's bargaining power and value. This is precisely why SEMCO's stock has been surging recently

Summary: Long SEMCO as unique turnkey supplier of substrate + silicon capacitor for Intel EMIB with $1B+ contract; also long Murata on its Ibiden/EMIB relationship.

Why Are Silicon Capacitors Becoming Important? And Why Is SEMCO's Stock Surging?

The reason silicon capacitors have failed to grow into a large market until now is clear. TSMC, which holds an overwhelming share in substrates for AI packaging, has historically sourced silicon capacitors in-house. As a result, it has been effectively impossible for silicon capacitor suppliers outside of TSMC to break into the AI packaging value chain.

But with the rise of Intel's EMIB, the situation is changing.

Silicon capacitor suppliers like Murata and SEMCO are now supplying silicon capacitors for Intel's EMIB, and have begun to benefit directly from AI demand.

The existing silicon capacitor market was effectively an oligopoly dominated by Murata and TSMC. SEMCO was closer to a latecomer.

Yet even SEMCO—the latecomer—has managed to land a supply contract worth more than $1 billion. For context, SEMCO's silicon capacitor revenue last year was a mere few million dollars.

So how did SEMCO ramp its revenue this quickly? It comes down to the fact that SEMCO is the only company in the world that operates both a silicon capacitor business and a substrate business.

The reason silicon capacitors have become important for Intel's EMIB is that Intel cannot make its own silicon capacitors and must source them externally. On top of that, within Intel's EMIB BoM, the highest value-added component is the substrate.

So if a company can deliver both the substrate and the silicon capacitor to Intel's EMIB on a turnkey basis, that maximizes SEMCO's bargaining power and value. This is precisely why SEMCO's stock has been surging recently.

Of course, this isn't to say Murata will benefit less. Murata still maintains a very close relationship with Ibiden—Intel's first-vendor for substrates—and is clearly positioned to benefit from EMIB. That said, my view is that the emergence of a new player like SEMCO should by no means be underestimated.


Murata still maintains a very close relationship with Ibiden—Intel's first-vendor for substrates—and is clearly positioned to benefit from EMIB

Murata Manufacturing Co., listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange


Summary: Bullish MSFT: stronger coding AI position than Google via GitHub Copilot.

Why does it feel like people talk so little about GitHub Copilot? I think $MSFT is in a stronger position than Google when it comes to coding.


Summary: Long ACMR as a beneficiary of China's semiconductor localization push.

@EquityBrian $ACMR

As you know, China is going to keep pushing for localization.

What’s your best under-$5B market cap idea right now?

Bonus points if you explain the bull case.


Summary: Long NVDA: deep structural moat in anticipating LLM compute demands 3-5 years ahead; Blackwell/Rubin/Feynman roadmap precisely aligned with next-gen model architectures like DeepSeek V4.

Thoughts after reading the DeepSeek V4 paper:

- NVIDIA really is something else. Remember how back in 2024 people were bashing Blackwell as overspec'd and dismissing FP4 as just marketing? Turns out it was all groundwork for the next generation of models. Maybe NVIDIA's moat is its ability to anticipate the trajectory of mainstream LLM technology and the new demands on accelerators 3–5 years out, plan and position accordingly, and bake that foresight into product design. Other GPU companies don't anticipate demand — they react to it.

- Have NVIDIA and DeepSeek been talking to each other? Looking at the 6144 FLOPs/Byte passage — I'd been wondering why NVIDIA was pushing HBM4 pin speeds up so aggressively, and it turns out raising Rubin's HBM4 pin speed isn't "overkill" from the perspective of a model like V4. It's a precisely balanced design.

- NVIDIA is once again working hard to crank up bandwidth on Rubin Ultra, which is telling: it implies that Rubin Ultra's FP4 compute is getting too fast relative to HBM bandwidth, and that HBM bandwidth could once again become the bottleneck when training MoE models like DeepSeek-V4.

- Why is the next-gen NVIDIA chip scaling up the NVL domain? Why are they moving toward Kyber? You can read this as an attempt to push up the bandwidth-density of the interconnect fabric, pulling compute — which has surged above the threshold — back into a communication-friendly balance.

- The upshot is that the DeepSeek paper is essentially telling us NVIDIA's current chip design lines up with DeepSeek's model patterns. If Blackwell alone produced this much evolution, imagine what Rubin and Feynman will deliver.

- NVIDIA's G3.5, unveiled this year, is almost uncanny. It's a new tier sitting between local NVMe SSDs and object/file storage — one that exists only for AI inference — meaning NVIDIA has created an entirely new memory-tier category exclusively for AI workloads. And in §3.6.2 of the V4 paper, DeepSeek argues that the KV cache can break out of GPU HBM's limits and be permanently offloaded to NVMe storage. That maps exactly onto the ICMS rack NVIDIA showed at CES. NVIDIA called it precisely — they saw that labs like DeepSeek would need this.


Summary: Goldman Sachs raises Samsung Electronics operating profit forecasts materially for 2026–2028; author shares/adopts bullish stance.

Goldman Sachs raises its Samsung Electronics operating profit forecasts:

2026: KRW 315tn ($213.7B) → KRW 355tn ($240.9B)

2027: KRW 307tn ($208.3B) → KRW 438tn ($297.2B)

2028: KRW 318tn ($215.8B) → KRW 495tn ($335.9B)


Summary: Shares Nomura's bullish thesis: UMC and Vanguard raising chip prices, utilization climbing, with 2Q revenue guidance well above street consensus.

Taiwan UMC, Vanguard Raise Chip Prices — Impact of "De-China" Supply Chain Restructuring

As the decoupling between China and non-China semiconductor supply chains peaks, Taiwan's tier-2 foundries UMC and Vanguard (VIS) have gained the leverage to raise chip prices, according to a recent assessment. Years of supply chain restructuring have eroded the cost-advantage argument for shifting production elsewhere, and TSMC's concentration on leading-edge nodes has further benefited these tier-2 players.

In its April 15 report titled "Taiwan Tier-2 Foundries: Price Hikes Materializing," Nomura Securities noted that UMC and Vanguard plan to raise chip prices and that fab utilization is also climbing.

One Taiwanese media outlet reported that Vanguard plans to raise foundry prices across all platforms by 10% starting in April. UMC has notified customers that it will adjust foundry pricing in the second half. In both cases, the drivers are pass-through of rising input costs and tight fab utilization.

Nomura cited "the peak-out of supply chain decoupling effects" as one of the key rationales behind the price hikes at both companies. Over the past 2–3 years, customers looking to migrate volume to Chinese foundries have effectively completed that shift, reducing the customer-attrition risk for UMC and Vanguard.

As geopolitical risk has elevated the importance of supply chain diversification, flexible production migration has diminished, and the incentive offered by price cuts is no longer what it once was. Taiwan foundries now have less reason to engage in the chicken game being waged by Chinese competitors.

The shift in TSMC's strategy also matters. As TSMC concentrates its resources on preparing next-generation fabs set to come online from 2028 and on optimizing leading-edge nodes, mature nodes have been deprioritized.

Nomura pointed to Vanguard's expanding foundry business with Renesas for AI server PMICs and its growing share within Qualcomm as supporting the price hike. Products on ≤180nm nodes are now shipping as soon as they come off the line. Vanguard's 1Q fab utilization is estimated to have risen to 80–85%.

UMC's 1Q utilization is estimated at roughly 70% for 8-inch and 80% for 12-inch fabs. Both are expected to break above 80% from 2Q onward.

Nomura noted that demand for analog and mixed-signal chips from IDMs — which account for roughly 20% of UMC's revenue — is driving performance. Strong Apple device sales this year are also contributing to higher UMC fab utilization. Representative examples include OLED DDIs designed by Novatek and Samsung System LSI for Apple products, as well as ISPs from Samsung System LSI. These products are primarily manufactured on 22/28nm nodes.

Nomura forecasts UMC's 2Q revenue to grow 7–9% QoQ, significantly exceeding the street consensus of 2%. Vanguard's 2Q revenue is expected to grow more than 15% QoQ as the price hikes fully flow through — also well above the consensus of 6%.

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https://t.co/dF5Praw6WN


Summary: Samsung foundry revival thesis: Anthropic chip order, Tesla AI5/AI6, NVIDIA LPU production signal return to foundry profitability next year.

Samsung Electronics Eyed for Anthropic Chip Order… Foundry Revival Begins

Samsung Electronics has made an investment in Anthropic, the U.S. AI company behind the AI model "Claude," raising the possibility of a foundry partnership in which Samsung would manufacture Anthropic's chips on a contract basis.

Samsung's foundry business, which has run at a loss for several years, has recently landed a string of major global customers, fueling growing expectations for a return to profitability next year.

On the 28th (local time), Anthropic announced that it had raised $65 billion in its recent Series H funding round, with its post-money valuation assessed at $965 billion (about 1,440 trillion won).

The three major memory semiconductor manufacturers—Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron—participated in this funding round as "strategic infrastructure partners."

Anthropic emphasized that "the technologies of these companies play a critical role in the global supply of memory, storage, and logic chips," adding that "partnerships with them will be a great help in reliably scaling computing capacity to meet customer needs."

Anthropic's mention of "logic chips" in its announcement has prompted speculation about a foundry partnership with Samsung Electronics. The process of manufacturing logic chips is foundry work, and aside from Samsung Electronics, neither Micron nor SK Hynix has a foundry division. For this reason, the industry analyzes that Samsung Electronics and Anthropic will newly collaborate not just at the memory level but also in foundry.

This implies a high likelihood that Samsung Electronics will produce the AI chips used in Anthropic's flagship model "Claude." Anthropic, alongside OpenAI, is regarded as one of the world's leading AI model companies and a core AI player. The prevailing view is that Samsung's foundry has secured yet another major customer, following Tesla, NVIDIA, and others.

Earlier, Samsung Electronics won orders for Tesla's next-generation AI chips, "AI5" and "AI6." Samsung's foundry is also handling production of an upgraded version of "AI4." NVIDIA's inference-dedicated language processing unit (LPU) chip "Grok3" is likewise being produced through Samsung's foundry. Samsung Electronics also plans to supply the image sensor to be mounted in Apple's new iPhone next year.

Accordingly, attention is focused on whether Samsung Electronics' foundry business—which has run at a loss in recent years—can regain its vitality. As of last year, Samsung Electronics held second place (7.2%) in the global foundry market, but the gap with first-place TSMC (69.9%) reaches 62.7 percentage points.

Regarding Samsung's investment in Anthropic, the industry views it as strategic cooperation spanning "AI semiconductors, memory, foundry, and AI infrastructure." Samsung Electronics is positioning a "one-stop solution"—encompassing high-bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced foundry processes, and advanced packaging—as its differentiation point. As the AI market evolves into an ecosystem centered not only on HBM supply but also AI chip design, production, packaging, and system optimization, the move is interpreted as Samsung strengthening partnerships by leveraging its competitiveness across the semiconductor spectrum.

A semiconductor industry official said, "Samsung's investment is not a simple equity stake in an AI company, but is interpreted as a signal that Samsung is earnestly expanding strategic relationships with the key players of the AI era," adding, "Expectations are growing as to whether Samsung's foundry business can seize another opportunity amid the expansion of the AI market."

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https://t.co/rVUzI49t6v


ASML株持ってるから、ラピダスがEUVをガッツリ買ってくれるといいな〜

Summary: Holds ASML; hopes Rapidus buys EUV heavily, implying continued bullish position.

@dottomato ASML株持ってるから、ラピダスがEUVをガッツリ買ってくれるといいな〜 って思ってるよ（笑）

@jukan05 日本人として応援しているし、チャレンジはするべきだ

ただ投資するかと言われれば…🤔


Summary: Long BESI: TSMC's SoIC capacity expansion to 50K wafers/month in 2027 drives more hybrid bonding tool orders.

DigiTimes published a report on TSMC's packaging this morning, and there's a lot of alpha in it.

To summarize:

1. TSMC is significantly expanding SoIC capacity in 2027 (from 10K wafers/month to 50K wafers/month), with NVIDIA locking up most of this SoIC capacity. Only 10% will be allocated to CPO.

-> Positive for BESI. More hybrid bonding tool orders should follow.

2. CoPoS is delayed… first product shipment expected in Q4 2030.
CoWoS's lifespan is now expected to be longer than previously anticipated. CoPoS is just too difficult to push through. According to DigiTimes, with large orders pouring in not only from NVIDIA and AMD but also from ASIC customers, TSMC's CoWoS capacity for the next two years is already fully booked. CoPoS was originally expected to take the baton with mass production in 2028, but per the latest schedule:
Q3 2026: R&D equipment move-in begins. R&D line buildout takes about 1 year.
Q3 2027: Pilot line equipment orders placed. Equipment lead time of about 3 quarters.
Q2 2028: Pilot tools moved into the Chiayi P7 fab. Validation and fine-tuning needed for about 1 year afterward.
Mid-to-late 2029: Mass production equipment finalized, supply chain orders placed. Lead time of 3 quarters.
Q1 2030: Mass production equipment move-in. First packaging product shipment possible 6 months to 1 year later, in Q4 2030.
In particular, "uniformity" and "warpage" are reportedly causing significant difficulties in implementing CoPoS.

-> Negative for the CoPoS supply chain. TSMC is reportedly even imposing a policy that anyone joining the CoPoS development effort will be barred from selling externally.

3. Lastly, the CoWoP project led by NVIDIA and SPIL (矽品) is reportedly facing a potential suspension. Because of the higher technical difficulty and elevated cost, SPIL and Taiwanese PCB vendors are showing low willingness to participate, and only Chinese PCB vendors are showing intent to continue R&D.

-> Those who were pushing CoWoP should be ashamed of themselves. The ones who were pumping mainland Chinese names...

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https://t.co/itAP0GluPN


Summary: Shares Nomura's DRAM PER-based valuation with Buy-implied targets: Samsung KRW 590K, SK Hynix KRW 4M.

Nomura argues that DRAM makers should be valued on a PER basis, with a target price of KRW 590,000 for Samsung Electronics and KRW 4,000,000 for SK Hynix.🤯 https://t.co/aR970ogxgW


Summary: SiPh test bottleneck shift to FormFactor/MPI seen as bad news for Teradyne.

It sounds like bad news for Teradyne.... https://t.co/weCkWo74UW

FormFactor and MPI vie to break SiPh test bottleneck as ficonTEC reportedly exits

As AI data centers officially enter the silicon photonics (SiPh) era, the industry faces severe challenges in testing accuracy and throughput on the path toward mass production of co-packaged


Summary: Endorses MLCC long thesis by affirming the shortage backdrop driving the call.

MLCC basket: Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Yageo

@superposition_V "Everything is in shortage."

한줄 요약
MLCC 롱

요즘 뭣만 하면 계속 롱인가도 싶지만 🤔🤔


Summary: Sold Samsung / bought SK Hynix on strike risk weighing on Samsung's share price near-term.

@yzliu88 It’s hard to dismiss the strike factor as a reason for Samsung’s weak share price performance. I sold Samsung in the short term and bought SK Hynix instead.

@jukan05 Hi Jukan, may I ask you what's your perspective on SEC Strike. Do you think they will reach an agreement similar to Sk Hynix say 10 percent? Or there might be chance of halting production. Do you think this risk is the main reason why SEC performer worse than Hynix recently?


Summary: CPU supply shortage + price upcycle through 2026–2027 benefits INTC, AMD, TSMC, and the broader foundry/OSAT/equipment supply chain.

▶ Strong CPU Pull-In; Supply Chain: Prices Continue Rising in Q3

- CPU price increases are driven by two factors: 1) surging AI server demand, and 2) deepening supply shortages caused by capacity concentration on leading-edge nodes

- Intel raised PC CPU prices in March and server CPU prices in April, improving 2Q margins, with room for an additional ~8–10% hike in 2H

- AMD is likewise expected to raise prices in both 2Q and 3Q this year, centered on server CPUs, with cumulative annual increases projected at 16–17% — marking entry into a broad CPU price upcycle

- As 2nm/3nm processes enter mass production and capacity expansion phases, capacity competition among AI chips, CPUs, GPUs, and TPUs is intensifying, putting upward pressure on foundry pricing and lead times

- CPUs are currently in a clear state of undersupply, with the supply-demand imbalance persisting and the price upcycle likely to be prolonged

- TSMC is, unusually, continuing to expand 3nm capacity — driven by simultaneous CPU and AI ASIC demand growth and the fact that Intel, AMD, and Nvidia's Vera CPU all adopt 3nm

- Intel recently strengthened its control over leading-edge capacity by repurchasing the 49% stake in its Ireland Fab 34 ($14.2B)

- The facility is the core production base for Intel 4 and Intel 3 processes, ranking among the highest-volume leading-edge fabs

- For the 2026–2027 CPU market, capacity — rather than demand — will be the key variable; if AI infrastructure investment continues to expand and process/packaging bottlenecks persist, the price uptrend is expected to hold, with benefits spreading broadly across the foundry, OSAT, equipment, and materials supply chain

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https://t.co/fFVy1wXIbd


AMD is likewise expected to raise prices in both 2Q and 3Q this year, centered on server CPUs, with cumulative annual increases projected at 16–17% — marking entry into a broad CPU price upcycle


TSMC is, unusually, continuing to expand 3nm capacity — driven by simultaneous CPU and AI ASIC demand growth


benefits spreading broadly across the foundry, OSAT, equipment, and materials supply chain

Foundry sector basket: TSMC, Samsung, UMC, SMIC


TSMC 케파가 정말 빡빡해질거 같거든요

Summary: TSMC capacity will get very tight as CPU demand adds to HBM base-die load; bullish on TSMC capacity utilization.

@treeapple33 지금 제 견해로는...삼성을 제외한 디램 2사가 과연 HBM 베이스 다이를 위한 케파를 넉넉히 확보할 수 있을지 조금 걱정됩니다. 이제 CPU마저 쇼티지되면 TSMC 케파가 정말 빡빡해질거 같거든요.

물론, 삼성도 TSMC랑 베이스다이 논의하고 있습니다?

@jukan05 삼성파운드리가 있다는게 삼성 메모리에 정말로 유리한게 맞는지 아직은 잘 모르겠네요 ㅎ


Summary: Bearish enterprise software sector: multiples will never recover to 50x revenue; companies fighting for survival, not just growth.

iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF IGV US

Software will never return to the era when it commanded 50x revenue multiples…

Software companies now have to fight not just for growth, but for survival itself.

This is a truly great piece. You should definitely read it.

In August I wrote a thesis I never published. The funds I was warning were key Crossover Research clients, so I stayed quiet. Since then, 𝗦𝗼𝗳𝘁𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝟱𝟬%+. Salesforce $CRM, ServiceNow $NOW, Adobe $ADBE, Workday $WDAY all off 40% from


Summary: Long Samsung Electro-Mechanics as the sole play on both ABF substrate and MLCC supercycles.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics… it’s up 70% in just one month.

Did you hear me? Anon?

Samsung Electro-Mechanics is the only company that can benefit from both the ABF substrate supercycle and the MLCC supercycle. https://t.co/Zd7nvCBOgw


Summary: Warning to ASML shorts ahead of TSMC earnings; implied bullish catalyst from C.C. Wei's expected commentary.

To those shorting ASML, you might want to be careful. TSMC earnings are tomorrow, right?

We already know what Uncle C.C. Wei is going to say there.

$ASML


Intel has carried out two rounds of CPU price hikes since the start of 2026... The full-year target is a cumulative 30% price increase... Server CPU demand is strong globally, with orders already up 50% YoY vs. 2025... Intel's production line utilization has reached 95%

Summary: Shares bullish CPU channel check: INTC executing 30% cumulative price hikes, 95% utilization, surging server demand; AMD gaining server share on stable supply and price-performance.

A very spicy piece of information here. A must-read for everyone (especially if you're interested in the CPU shortage).

- Intel has carried out two rounds of CPU price hikes since the start of 2026. The first round in February was 10–15%, and the second on March 16th was 15%, bringing the cumulative increase to ~20% vs. January.

- The full-year target is a cumulative 30% price increase, aimed at recouping investment and meeting capital market expectations.

- A third round of price adjustments is reportedly planned for May.

- Server CPU demand is strong globally, with orders already up 50% YoY vs. 2025.

- Chinese CSPs in particular are placing additional orders — Tencent is scaling its server CPU procurement from ~300K units in 2025 to a 2026 target of 900K–1M units, deploying them toward AI infrastructure buildout.

- Alibaba has the largest procurement scale among Chinese CSPs, and is also expected to grow 30–35% YoY.

- Consumer CPU shipments are also picking up, driven by local AI PC demand, with a projected ~20% YoY increase in shipments (though I find this one a bit dubious). Intel's consumer CPU share remains stable at 65%.

- Intel's production line utilization has reached 95%, but is not yet physically at full capacity. Server market deliveries are smooth (China Q1 orders +60%, deliveries +27%), but on the consumer side, despite orders doubling (+100%), deliveries actually declined 3.8%. This is due to PTL yield issues and new product supply being prioritized for North America — Intel is managing this by extending lead times to 3 months.

- Intel's consumer CPU market share remains stable at 65%.

- On the server side, Intel's share has dropped from 65% in 2025 to 50%, primarily due to AMD's stable supply and superior price-performance.

- A particularly noteworthy point: the CPU-to-GPU ratio in AI servers has risen from 1:12 to 1:8, with a target of 1:4, meaning the share of CPU procurement is increasing. Very important.

- Cloud providers' AI servers generally have excess compute capacity, and there are no plans for large-scale traditional server expansion for the time being.

- AI applications are expected to drive ~10% of incremental demand for consumer CPUs, with long-term growth dependent on product usability.

$INTC $AMD $ARM

CPU紀要

漲價情況
Intel 2026年已執行兩輪CPU漲價：2月首輪漲10-15%，3月16日第二輪漲15%，��計較1月上漲約20%。目標是全年累計漲30%，以回收投資並滿足資本市場預期。5月計劃第三輪調價，但受AMD與ARM競爭影響，進一步大漲空間有限。

需求表現
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On the server side, Intel's share has dropped from 65% in 2025 to 50%, primarily due to AMD's stable supply and superior price-performance


I'm increasingly convinced that semiconductor equipment could become seriously scarce going forward

Summary: Bullish semi equipment on scarcity; SK Hynix outperforming Samsung in HBM4; HBM price renegotiations failing to lift prices.

Global semicon equipment basket: AMAT, Lam, KLA, ASML, TEL

Things I’ve looked into recently:

I’m increasingly convinced that semiconductor equipment could become seriously scarce going forward. Based on channel checks, the “tera-fab” project appears to be much more serious than expected. Intel needs to absorb foundry customers from TSMC while also expanding capacity for its own CPUs. Samsung also seems to have recently secured multiple customers. And TSMC may raise its capex guidance in Q3 this year.

SK hynix appears to be performing better than Samsung in HBM4.

HBM price renegotiations do not seem to be going smoothly. Hyperscalers appear very reluctant to renegotiate the prices under the long-term agreements they signed last year.


SK hynix appears to be performing better than Samsung in HBM4