Summary: Bullish TSMC on rising Google/Broadcom CoWoS orders; singled out Guangsheng as the most undervalued Google supply-chain play at 80% revenue exposure.

Rumor: Meta is reportedly considering purchasing Google’s TPUs.

Regardless of whether the deal materializes, Google (through Broadcom) has been raising its planned TSMC CoWoS wafer starts every month for next year.

#市場小作文 #RUMOR
轉

繼Anthropic之後，Meta也在考慮買Google TPU來用，姑且不論會不會成，Google （透過Broadcom）在台積明年CoWoS 的投片每個月都在上修。

台股裡面Google supply chain最被低估的鑽石就是光聖，80%的營收是Google


Summary: Bullish AVGO: Street estimates far too low despite Google COT risk debate; diversification into Anthropic/OpenAI mitigates reliance.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

UBS: AVGO / Google COT Debate

Following our meeting with AVGO CEO/CFO immediately after earnings (here), we have been fielding questions this past week about risk – real and perceived – to AVGO’s Google relationship.

The debate is around a potential longer-term desire to move to a customer owned tooling (COT) relationship where Google owns the mask sets and AVGO moves to more of a IP block provider. Google’s engagement with Mediatek for
v7e (here) is part of this debate, but the debate is broader than just this engagement. We ultimately feel that it will be very hard for Google to move away from AVGO, but in our meeting, even AVGO management acknowledges that the Google relationship may evolve over the coming years. AVGO is willing to work with customers to monetize its IP and may be open to arrangements where it is paid royalties per chip vs recognizing
revenue on the entire ASIC under the current arrangement. AVGO also highlighted its strong efforts to diversify its customer base (Anthropic, OpenAI, etc..) to mitigate such a heavy reliance on Google for its XPU business. To this point we think that AVGO's engagement for Anthropic's TPU rack orders (at relatively lower GMs of 45-50% vs XPU 55%) is a part of that strategy and serves to build the relationship in light of Anthropic's own XPU program. Ultimately, AVGO expects the AI model competition to continue to
drive investments in hardware an increasingly complex system-level innovations where AVGO can add value with its combination of XPU and networking portfolio.

Furthermore, we expect other LLM makers to have less internal know-how and continue using AVGO for ASIC programs. Our opinion is that after the 7th generation of TPU, Google has built more advanced internal XPU capabilities, but is still heavily reliant on key IP blocks from AVGO (SerDes, etc..). However, we do believe that this debate will remain front and center for AVGO going forward and may cap the multiple even as we believe Street estimates are still far too low.

$AVGO


Summary: Bullish Samsung and SK Hynix on AI-driven NAND demand pushing their OPM above NVDA's this year.

NAND companies will record higher profit margins than Nvidia this year!🤯 https://t.co/PVEHxqbFXs

Samsung & SK NAND Operating Margins Forecast at 70%+ … AI-Driven Memory Rally Extends Beyond HBM Across the Board

A surge in AI-driven memory demand is expected to push Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's NAND operating profit margins (OPM) up to the 70% range this year. While https://t.co/lVXfw1HC1t


it's basically a done deal that both Samsung and Hynix are going to make an absolute ton of money this year

Summary: Bullish Samsung and SK Hynix on massive earnings ahead; sell-side estimates not yet fully reflecting SSD price increases.

Honestly, lately when I look at the operating profit estimates for Samsung and SK Hynix coming out from sell-side analysts, it feels like they’re not fully reflecting the SSD price increases.

Anyway, it’s basically a done deal that both Samsung and Hynix are going to make an absolute ton of money this year.

Among the current numbers floating around, the median seems to be this KB Securities forecast, and according to it, Samsung’s operating profit in 2026 would rank as the 6th highest in the world.


Broadcom's revenue from Google in 2026 is expected to roughly double versus 2025, and in 2027 it could grow again to nearly double compared with 2026

Summary: Shares Citi's 2026-27 AVGO outlook showing accelerating ASIC revenue from Google, Meta, xAI, OpenAI, AWS, and Microsoft; implied bullish.

I’m only just getting around to reading Citi’s 2026 semiconductor outlook… and this table is genuinely fascinating.

1. Broadcom’s revenue from Google in 2026 is expected to roughly double versus 2025, and in 2027 it could grow again to nearly double compared with 2026.

2. Meta-related revenue likely starts to show up meaningfully in 2027.

3. ByteDance’s ASIC shipments look small through 2026, but it seems to enter true volume production toward late 2026.

4. Revenue from Anthropic could be nearly on par with Google in 2026, but then drop sharply in 2027.

5. xAI’s ASIC really starts to take off in 2027.

6. OpenAI’s ASIC appears to start mass production in late 2026 and see large-scale deployment in 2027.

7. Broadcom seems to have secured meaningful orders from AWS and Microsoft, with major revenue upside expected in 2027.

$AVGO


Broadcom's CoWoS allocation has been increased by ~20k in recent month and hence its 2026 total TPU volume has also risen from 4mn to 4.3mn

Summary: Broadcom's 2026 CoWoS allocation raised ~20k and TPU volume up 4mn→4.3mn; bullish supply read.

"There’s recent rumor lately that Broadcom’s 2026 CoWoS allocation was cut meaningfully in order to compensate for NVDA’s CoWoS demand. This is apparently wrong…In fact, Broadcom’s CoWoS allocation has been increased by ~20k in recent month and hence its 2026 total TPU volume has also risen from 4mn to 4.3mn; Instead, AWS 2026 CoWoS allocation is cut in order to compensate for NVDA’s strong CoWoS demand."


Samsung recently passed the qual test for NVIDIA—the world's leading AI semiconductor company—beating its competitors to become the first to do so, and is now ahead of mass production shipments. As technological recovery and supply shortages coincide this year, the company is expected to proceed with facility investments quite aggressively

Summary: Bullish Samsung: first to pass NVIDIA HBM4 qual, 18% DRAM capacity expansion underway, AI-driven memory supercycle and supply tightening support aggressive investment.

[Exclusive] Samsung to Expand DRAM Capacity for HBM4 by 120,000 Wafers per Month

Samsung Electronics is embarking on an initiative to increase its new DRAM production capacity by nearly 20% this year, centered around its Pyeongtaek Plant 4 (P4). The core of this expansion is to significantly boost the production of 6th-generation 10nm-class (1c) DRAM, which serves as the primary material for 6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4). This move is interpreted as a strategic plan for aggressive facility investment, driven by a sharp recovery in the company's HBM4 technical competitiveness and the ever-increasing demand for DRAM from Artificial Intelligence (AI) customers.

According to industry sources on the 5th, Samsung Electronics has established a strategy to build a new DRAM production line at 'P4' in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province—the company's latest semiconductor factory—capable of producing 100,000 to 120,000 wafers per month by the first quarter of next year. This line will specifically house the 1c DRAM production infrastructure used for HBM4.

HBM is a type of memory created by vertically stacking multiple DRAMs. It is faster and has a larger capacity than single DRAM units, making it a highly sought-after product in the AI industry, which requires complex computations.

HBM4 is the latest HBM product that Samsung Electronics will supply to AI semiconductor companies such as NVIDIA and AMD starting this year. Samsung produces HBM4 by vertically stacking 12 units of 1c DRAM, the most advanced product currently available.

Industry experts evaluate Samsung’s establishment of a new 1c DRAM line for HBM4 as a substantial investment. To date, Samsung Electronics possesses lines capable of producing 660,000 DRAM wafers per month. Adding up to 120,000 wafers of new capacity would mean a maximum 18% increase in DRAM production capability within a single year.

The production ratio of 1c DRAM for HBM4 is also expected to rise. Samsung Electronics is known to have established a production line for 60,000 to 70,000 1c DRAM wafers monthly as of last year. If the lines are completed as planned, the capacity for 1c DRAM for HBM4 will reach nearly 200,000 wafers per month, meaning HBM4-specific DRAM alone will account for 25% of the total production process.

Furthermore, the 4nm process line at S5, the Pyeongtaek foundry plant that manufactures HBM4 base dies, is reportedly operating in "full-throttle" mode. Construction on the exterior of 'P5,' currently being built in Pyeongtaek, is also moving busily to align with the timing for semiconductor manufacturing equipment delivery as early as the first quarter of next year.

The company is also reportedly considering expanding the production of general-purpose 1c DRAM used in mobile devices and home appliances. This involves a large-scale process transition to 1c DRAM, primarily at Hwaseong Line 17, where previous generation processes were located.

Samsung Electronics’ decision to significantly strengthen its 1c DRAM production capacity this year stems from growing confidence in its latest technology and the arrival of a memory "super cycle" driven by the expansion of the AI market.

The atmosphere within Samsung Electronics has recently seen a surge in technical confidence. Until last year, the company struggled significantly with the manufacturing of HBM4 and 1c DRAM. Consequently, Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun, who was appointed as the new head of the Device Solutions (DS) division in 2024, decided on a redesign of the 1c DRAM. This strategy proved successful, leading to a rapid recovery in technology since the first half of last year.

In the HBM4 sector specifically, Samsung recently passed the "qual test" (qualification test) for NVIDIA—the world's leading AI semiconductor company—beating its competitors to become the first to do so, and is now ahead of mass production shipments. Faced with a situation where HBM4 production must be scaled up rapidly, the company has entered the stage of building new lines centered on P4, its most advanced facility.

Additionally, the company must increase production capacity to respond to tightening memory supply chains caused by the AI boom. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, the price of 64GB DDR5 DRAM for servers rose by 98% in the first quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter of last year, marking a significant price hike.

An industry official stated, "Samsung Electronics possesses abundant production capacity and capital, allowing it to respond relatively flexibly to surging demand. As technological recovery and supply shortages coincide this year, the company is expected to proceed with facility investments quite aggressively."

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https://t.co/Eo1kzeltQg


AI Agent EDA will dramatically lower the barriers to chip development... This will trigger a revaluation of EDA companies' valuations

Summary: Bullish EDA sector: AI Agent EDA will slash chip-dev costs 70%, trigger valuation rerating; incumbents like Synopsys partnering with NVIDIA are best positioned.

EDA sector basket: Synopsys and Cadence (ANSS is simulation, not EDA)

Future Prediction 1

Won’t EDA companies thrive going forward?

I believe design automation and AI technology will inevitably merge with EDA.
In particular, Agent AI like Claude Code is bound to emerge in semiconductor design as well.

But can xAI or OpenAI actually pull off Agent AI in the semiconductor space?

While EDA can be broadly seen as SaaS, the technical barriers are on a completely different level from typical SaaS.

The massive data and IP moat built up over decades of history makes it nearly impossible for new entrants to challenge—it’s a true economic fortress.

So I think the EDA industry will evolve along these lines:
1.  EDA companies will partner with NVIDIA (Synopsys is already doing so) or collaborate with frontier labs.

2.  Instead, the development of AI Agent EDA will most likely be led by the incumbent EDA companies themselves.

3.  AI Agent EDA will dramatically lower the barriers to chip development—potentially slashing 70% of chip development costs.

4.  This will trigger a revaluation of EDA companies’ valuations. It will also create enormous opportunities for foundries, as it removes the critical human resource bottleneck in the chip design industry.

5.  Perhaps the semiconductor trend will shift from today’s low-variety, high-volume production to high-variety, low-volume production.

6.  ASICs, currently the exclusive domain of big tech with massive capital, could become a viable option for mid-sized companies as well.


Summary: Avoid Rambus (crashes on earnings); buy actual memory manufacturers to ride the memory super cycle.

The advice I’m giving you is this: if you want to fully ride the memory super cycle, buy companies that actually manufacture memory. Not IP companies like Rambus.

This fucking company crashes every single time they announce earnings. https://t.co/QhOVVYnk5U


if you want to fully ride the memory super cycle, buy companies that actually manufacture memory

Memory manufacturers basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, Nanya


Summary: Shares Nomura thesis: Sandisk poised to raise enterprise SSD NAND prices 100%+ QoQ in Q1, bullish for SNDK.

Nomura: Sandisk could raise enterprise SSD NAND prices by more than 100% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q1.

$SNDK https://t.co/XHG3q8mIsn


I confidently told them I expected ASPs to rise by 50%... now it feels like the sell side is starting to catch up with me

Summary: Author's 50% memory ASP increase forecast for Q2 was more aggressive than all sell/buy side; vindicated, bullish Micron.

During my U.S. trip, quite a few people I met asked me what I thought memory prices would look like in the second quarter.

So I confidently told them I expected ASPs to rise by 50%.

Then one of them said that was the most aggressive number he had heard across both the sell side and the buy side.

But… now it feels like the sell side is starting to catch up with me, doesn’t it?

GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Communications | Micron FY2Q26 Review: No Need to Worry About the CAPEX Increase

☀ Results significantly beat expectations; target price raised to US$623: Micron delivered a very strong performance in fiscal 2Q26, with revenue reaching


Summary: Bernstein reiterates Outperform on SNDK with $300 TP; NAND undersupply tightening further on AI/datacenter KV cache demand, prices rising at unprecedented pace.

Bernstein: Sandisk (SNDK - Outperform, $300 TP)

Sandisk sees the CES keynote comments on Vera Rubin KV cache from Jensen Huang of Nvidia as incremental new NAND demand that is not previously in the demand forecast. Prior to the forecast, Sandisk estimated that NAND was 8% undersupplied and this incremental demand will just make the extremely tight situation even tighter. The company couldn't quantify the impact as it was quite new information but felt that the impact was significant. Sandisk forecasted Datacenter NAND demand growth at 45% vs. mid 20s% for overall NAND bit demand growth compared to supply growth in the teens%. We estimate the KV cache could indicate an additional 16TB per GPU, vs. 3-4TB per GPU today. This would equate to >5x jump in NAND content.

The company reaffirmed that they are not adding capacity and doesn't see any significant new capacity coming online besides some from YMTC. Sandisk is currently taking a cautious approach towards supply additions following a few years of low profits. They need to see demand consistently outstrip supply with margins significantly higher than this before even considering capacity additions. In addition Sandisk is careful to consider the long-term impact of supply additions, which are essentially permanent. There was some discussion around competitors and how YMTC is really the only NAND player that is adding capacity and isn't acting rationally (arguably).

Long term agreements are becoming a hot topic but currently less than 10% of business is locked in on longer-term price deals. Therefore, over 90% of SNDK's business is on short term (i.e. one quarter or less) price agreements. In an up-market this is a good thing as they are therefore more levered to the market price increases.

Sandisk mentioned that they are rising prices faster than the company ever has. Prices are increasing substantially every week in a manner that is unprecedented in the memory industry.

Where NAND supply bit growth is coming from:

• For SNDK its entirely from technology migration to BiCS 8, which is offset by loss in wafer throughput due to the added layers. This in turn is offset by expansion in clean room space.

• NAND industry supply growth is in mid to high teens, which is SNDK's goal. For 2026, SNDK may be below that.

• Very few cleanrooms available for NAND expansion besides SNDK/Kioxia's Kitakami Fab (but this is planned to offset wafer throughput loss from BiCS8 ramp), and YMTC. Any new cleanrooms would take 2-3 years before having significant impact on the market due to the long lead times.

Where all the NAND demand growth is coming from:

• Disproportionally most of the incremental demand growth is coming from datacenters, which in turn is coming from AI. Datacenters will be the largest portion of overall NAND demand for the first time this year.

• Traditional NAND markets like mobile, have more price sensitivity than datacenter customers, which don't appear to be sensitive to price increases.

• Although the rapid price increase is not expected to impact datacenter demand, overall NAND demand will be impacted due to some demand impact in mobile and PC markets (in the form of lower content growth or lower unit growth or both. Even with this weakness the market is still expected to be very tight due to the strong and price insensitive datacenter customers.

High Bandwidth Flash (HBF) showing promise and remaining on track:

• HBF is a flash based replacement for HBM used for inference.

• Currently working with SK Hynix to standardize the interface for HBF

• SNDK is on target to deliver HBF component samples in 2H26 and full solution samples by 1H27.

$SNDK


NVIDIA's Feynman GPU could potentially adopt Intel's EMIB-T packaging, which could translate into an approximately $1 billion annual revenue opportunity for Intel Foundry

Summary: Shares Wells Fargo note that NVIDIA Feynman GPU may use Intel EMIB-T packaging, creating ~$1B annual revenue opportunity for Intel Foundry.

Wells Fargo noted in its NVIDIA GTC 2026 preview report that NVIDIA’s Feynman GPU could potentially adopt Intel’s EMIB-T packaging, which could translate into an approximately $1 billion annual revenue opportunity for Intel Foundry.

$INTC


ASML's DUV upside is currently overlooked by the market

Summary: Bullish ASML: DUV upside ignored by market, implying undervaluation.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

"ASML’s DUV upside is currently overlooked by the market."

$ASML https://t.co/ugdWA4I1B5


Long-term supply agreements would provide more than three years of demand visibility, allowing companies to invest with confidence and maintaining margins at reasonable levels by preventing dramatic price declines

Summary: Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix all benefit from historic LTAs with hyperscalers providing multi-year demand visibility, enabling confident capex and margin stabilization.

BIG: Samsung Pursues Long-Term Supply 'Lock-In' with Google and Microsoft… A New Memory Paradigm Emerges

Samsung Electronics is reportedly in talks to establish long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with Google and Microsoft. While various contract structures are under discussion, the most likely arrangement is one where large volumes are committed over an extended period with pricing remaining variable. If finalized, this would mark the first binding long-term supply contract in the industry's history — a significant historical inflection point.

◆ Big Tech Gets Desperate, Seeks Long-Term Supply Commitments

According to industry sources on the 20th, Samsung Electronics has recently been in negotiations with Google and Microsoft over long-term supply contracts. As memory has emerged as a critical bottleneck for AI data center buildouts, major tech companies are racing to secure commitments from Korean memory makers.

Despite concerns over an AI bubble, U.S. hyperscalers have continued — and even accelerated — their capital expenditure programs, exacerbating memory supply shortages. Commodity DRAM prices have surged to the point of rivaling HBM margins, prompting Big Tech to pursue LTAs with memory manufacturers in order to secure stable supply.

The exact structure of the contracts remains under discussion, but the most likely format involves fixed volume commitments with pricing linked to spot market rates. Under this arrangement, Big Tech customers would pay large upfront prepayments to Samsung, which would be drawn down if the customer fails to take the agreed volumes within the three-to-five year contract window. However, pricing would remain tied to spot prices, adjusting upward or downward if spot prices move beyond a defined range.

Memory semiconductor pricing is typically divided into spot prices and contract prices. Spot prices are determined daily by immediate supply and demand in B2C markets such as distributors and small-to-medium PC assemblers. Contract prices, on the other hand, serve as the benchmark for large-scale supply deals between manufacturers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix and major global firms such as Apple and Amazon.

Under this type of structure, Samsung would gain long-term demand visibility, enabling it to accelerate capacity expansion while avoiding inventory buildup — thereby preventing the steep price declines seen in past cycles. "This long-term supply agreement is essentially a green light to expand capacity," said one industry official. "By committing to large volumes over an extended period, manufacturers will be able to invest with confidence."

Micron is also inking long-term supply agreements. In its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings call, Micron disclosed that it had "signed its first-ever five-year Strategic Customer Agreement (SCA)." SK Hynix is also said to have already reached LTAs with select customers, and it is expected that memory manufacturers will have concluded agreements with all major hyperscalers by mid-year.

In response, a Samsung Electronics representative said, "We are unable to confirm details related to specific customers," while adding, "All major customers are currently requesting large volumes of memory."

◆ "This Time Is Different" — Prepayment First, Supply Later

The significance of these contracts lies in the potential paradigm shift they represent for the memory industry. Historically, the sector has been plagued by periodic down-cycles driven by the mismatch between large-scale capacity additions and fluctuating demand.

Long-term supply agreements, however, would provide more than three years of demand visibility, allowing companies to invest with confidence and maintaining margins at reasonable levels by preventing dramatic price declines.

The defining feature of this round of LTAs is their enforceability. While long-term contracts were attempted around 2019, they carried no binding force — customers could cancel orders at will. This year's agreements, by contrast, enforce commitment through large upfront prepayments. "My understanding is that Samsung is in discussions to receive over $10 billion in prepayments from Microsoft, with the prepayment balance drawn down if Microsoft fails to take the agreed volumes," said another industry source.

The successful conclusion of LTAs is expected to drive further expansion of Samsung's investment plans. With demand visibility materially improved, there is little reason to hesitate on capex. Micron, for its part, has already announced plans to invest over $25 billion in fiscal 2026 — nearly double the $13.8 billion invested the prior year.

At Samsung's annual general meeting on the 18th, Vice Chairman and CEO Jeon Young-hyun stated: "For the semiconductor division, it is critically important to minimize uncertainty in our medium-to-long-term business and maintain a healthy supply-demand balance in memory. By securing long-term supply through multi-year agreements, both our customers and ourselves can enhance predictable business stability and visibility."

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https://t.co/WfcyBuFWca


Micron is also inking long-term supply agreements. In its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings call, Micron disclosed that it had 'signed its first-ever five-year Strategic Customer Agreement'


SK Hynix is also said to have already reached LTAs with select customers


Summary: Kioxia expected to soar when the Japanese market opens, following SNDK's move.

@savignyxyz That said, those companies also make HBM, so they aren’t pure-play NAND names.

Kioxia will likely soar as well once the Japanese market opens today—similar to SNDK.

@jukan05 doesnt sndk have <5% market share and samsung 35+, hynix 25+, then MU and kioxa?


Summary: Samsung and SK Hynix NAND margins projected to hit 40–50% in H1 on surging enterprise SSD demand and 55–60% ASP rise; decade-high profitability outlook.

Samsung and SK to Hit Record NAND Margins: "Unprecedented in a Decade"

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are set to aggressively hike NAND flash prices through the first half of this year. Consequently, NAND margin rates for both companies are highly likely to reach the 40–50% range. The industry anticipates that NAND products will achieve their highest profitability in nearly ten years, a level not seen since the memory super-cycle of 2017.

According to industry sources on the 4th, the NAND margin rates for Samsung and SK Hynix in the first half of this year are projected to approach the 40–50% mark.

As of the fourth quarter of last year, NAND margins for both companies were estimated to have climbed into the 20% range. Specifically, SK Hynix, which maintains a higher proportion of Quad-Level Cell (QLC) technology, demonstrated stronger profitability compared to Samsung Electronics. QLC, which stores 4 bits of data per cell (the minimum storage unit of memory), is being actively adopted in enterprise SSDs due to its advantages in high-capacity implementation.

With global Big Tech firms aggressively expanding investments in AI infrastructure, the demand for enterprise SSDs is surging. Notably, Nvidia is increasingly placing orders not only for QLC but also for Triple-Level Cell (TLC; 3 bits per cell) products.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to significantly raise NAND prices in the first half of this year, centering on high-value-added products. Market research firm TrendForce analyzed that the Average Selling Price (ASP) of NAND increased by 33–38% in the fourth quarter of last year and is expected to see an even sharper rise of 55–60% in the first quarter of this year.

Accordingly, it is highly probable that NAND margins for both companies will reach 40–50% in the first half of the year. The industry regards this as an unprecedented level of profitability, even when compared to past memory super-cycles.

"NAND margin rates hitting the 40–50% range is a phenomenon unseen since 2017, when the memory super-cycle and 3D NAND growth were in full swing," said a semiconductor industry official. "Achieving even a 30% margin is considered very difficult; seeing profitability soar this much in such a short period is truly remarkable."

Another official added, "The outlook for NAND prices to rise in a stepwise fashion through the first and second quarters is already a certainty. The conservative approach to NAND facility investment previously taken by memory suppliers is now resulting in a severe supply shortage."

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https://t.co/snql0TZzdH


NAND margin rates for both companies are highly likely to reach the 40–50% range


Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have informed their customers of plans to significantly raise DRAM prices again in Q2… cumulative price increases could reach 130% for the full year

Summary: DRAM prices up 130% by year-end; Samsung and SK Hynix raising prices into Q2 with volumes sold out through next year — structural bull case for both memory makers.

Samsung & SK Hynix to Sharply Raise DRAM Prices in Q2… Surge Expected to Continue Through Next Year

The world's two largest DRAM manufacturers, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, have informed their customers of plans to significantly raise DRAM prices again in Q2. With DRAM demand surging on the back of expanding global AI investment far outpacing the two companies' supply capacity, some observers project that cumulative price increases could reach 130% for the full year.

According to semiconductor industry sources on the 27th, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have notified customers of Q2 DRAM supply price increases and have begun price negotiations. While the magnitude of increases varies by customer, non-major clients are reportedly being told they must accept substantial price hikes to secure DRAM volumes.

An industry source said, "Samsung Electronics' current production capacity can only cover about 60% of continuously surging DRAM demand," adding, "Customers are also more focused on securing volumes than resisting price increases, so there should be no difficulty pushing through significant hikes."

Some in the industry suggest that certain customers may need to accept price increases of more than double their previous contract prices to receive DRAM allocations. The DRAM price surge that began in H2 last year amid the AI infrastructure buildout frenzy has completely upended traditional trading practices, widening the purchasing power gap between large and small-to-mid-sized customers.

Typically, global big tech companies such as NVIDIA and Apple hold structural advantages in DRAM procurement. Big tech firms purchasing DRAM in large volumes negotiate contracts on a quarterly or semi-annual basis, setting volume and price ranges with final supply prices adjusted to market rates at the time of delivery. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix also extend preferential pricing to big tech customers who purchase at scale regardless of market cycles, in order to maintain their supply chain relationships.

However, small-to-mid-sized customers have traditionally contracted on a monthly basis reflecting spot market prices. Since Q4 last year, when DRAM prices began surging, Samsung and SK hynix have shifted these customers to quarterly volume-based "forward commitment" contracts that favor the suppliers. As a result, Samsung and SK hynix have presented steep price increase proposals to customers whose contracts come up for renewal in Q2.

Another industry source explained, "Contract volumes for both large and small customers will see price increases reflecting market prices," adding, "However, when existing contracts expire and new ones are signed, the absence of a previously agreed price range means the magnitude of increases will inevitably be even greater."

Analysis suggests DRAM prices could more than double over the course of this year. On the same day, global market research firm Gartner released a forecast projecting that memory prices, including DRAM and solid-state drives (SSDs), will rise 130% by year-end.

According to DRAMeXchange, DDR4 8Gb product prices, which stood at around $1.30 in March last year, surged to $9.30 by the end of last year, and have climbed a further ~40% to $13.00 as of February this year.

The industry views the price surge not as a temporary supply-demand imbalance but as a structural problem where supply chronically cannot keep pace with demand. This is driven by the AI industry's transition from simple search-based applications to "agentic AI" that replaces specialized human functions. As agentic AI is adopted across enterprises, governments, and even personal smartphones, demand for DRAM—which supports inference and computation—continues to explode.

Meanwhile, the three major memory makers' DRAM production capacity this year is expected to remain flat or increase by only about 7% (SK hynix) compared to last year. An industry source said, "As companies adopt not just one but two or three AI models simultaneously for different use cases, DRAM demand is growing even further," adding, "Volumes through next year are already sold out, so the price increase trend is expected to continue."

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https://t.co/RUVTOu10cX


Volumes through next year are already sold out, so the price increase trend is expected to continue


Summary: Bullish Samsung on structural shift: hyperscalers paying upfront prepayments signals memory escaping its commodity cycle.

Did you see this? Hyperscalers are now literally paying upfront prepayments to memory companies! This is it — memory is finally breaking out of the cycle!

"Under this arrangement, Big Tech customers would pay large upfront prepayments to Samsung, which would be drawn down if the customer fails to take the agreed volumes within the three-to-five year contract window."

BIG: Samsung Pursues Long-Term Supply 'Lock-In' with Google and Microsoft… A New Memory Paradigm Emerges

Samsung Electronics is reportedly in talks to establish long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with Google and Microsoft. While various contract structures are under discussion, https://t.co/nxdAn9g2V4


Initiating with Buy, TP NT$420... We view ASE as a core AI beneficiary, with its margin-accretive LEAP (advanced packaging) business growing rapidly... ASE has pulled back ~12% over the past two weeks due to systemic risk, and we see current valuations as attractive.

Summary: GF Securities initiates ASE (ASX US / 3711TT) at Buy, PT NT$420, on LEAP advanced packaging growth to $4.7B by 2027 and OSAT upcycle driving margin expansion.

《GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Communications》 | ASE (3711TT, Buy) Initiation: Packaging the AI Boom

Initiating with Buy, TP NT$420: We initiate coverage on ASE (3711TT / ASX US) with a Buy rating and a target price of NT$420, based on 25x 2026/2027E EPS (or 22x 2027E EPS). We view ASE as a core AI beneficiary, with its margin-accretive LEAP (advanced packaging) business growing rapidly toward revenue of US$3.2bn / US$4.7bn in 2026E / 2027E. Meanwhile, driven by advanced node demand, traditional business recovery, and pricing increases, the OSAT upcycle should be sustained, keeping utilization and margins elevated. Given tight CoWoS supply, we expect TSMC to raise CoWoS prices 10–15% in 2026, acting as a sector catalyst. We further expect AMD-driven Full Process business and CoWoP to become the next wave of growth from 2027 onward. We forecast ASE's 2026/2027E EPS at NT$14.6 / NT$19.2, up +57% / +31% YoY. ASE has pulled back ~12% over the past two weeks due to systemic risk, and we see current valuations as attractive.

Multiple Tailwinds for LEAP: On February 5th, management raised its 2026 LEAP revenue guidance to US$3.2bn — above the prior "at least US$1bn incremental" commentary — representing a doubling from 2025's US$1.6bn. We forecast LEAP revenue of US$1.6bn / US$3.2bn / US$4.7bn in 2025/2026/2027E, representing 13% / 20% / 24% of ATM revenue, driven by: 1) oS (outsourced substrate/interposer) — the primary driver, benefiting from larger interposer sizes and rising interconnect complexity alongside TSMC outsourcing and Rubin platform ramp; 2) CP (wafer probe/testing) — benefiting from TSMC outsourcing probe testing for most AI chips including NVIDIA; 3) FT (final test) — orders from non-NVIDIA customers already secured from 2025, with potential NVIDIA/Google supply chain entry expected in 2H26; 4) Full Process — forecast to triple YoY in 2026, reaching ~10% of LEAP revenue, with further acceleration in 2027 driven by AMD Venice CPU adoption in general servers and agentic AI applications. Finally, we continue to expect NVIDIA CoWoP to enter mass production in 2H27, with ASE/SPIL as the primary packaging suppliers — commanding higher value-add given the novel processes and equipment required.

Structural Gross Margin Improvement from OSAT Upcycle: Driven by AI demand and chiplet design trends, we expect structural growth in the OSAT industry to persist. Accordingly, we expect LEAP acceleration to drive a meaningful improvement in ATM profitability in 2026, with management guiding for ATM gross margin to remain within a structural range of 24–30% and improve sequentially each quarter, reaching the upper end of that range by 2H26. Traditional business is also expected to recover modestly on restocking and industrial demand recovery, although mobile/PC weakness remains a watch item. Overall, we forecast ASE's consolidated and ATM-level gross/operating margins to trend upward.

$ASX


Summary: Micron excluded from Vera Rubin HBM4 supply chain; Samsung and SK Hynix confirmed as sole HBM4 suppliers, securing dominance for 1-2 years.

NVIDIA's Vera Rubin to Use Only Samsung and SK Hynix HBM4

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's sixth-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4) will be incorporated into NVIDIA's next-generation AI accelerator "Vera Rubin," slated for release in the second half of this year. Micron, the world's third-largest memory company, has been excluded from the HBM4 supply chain for Vera Rubin — a result widely interpreted as a recognition of Korean memory makers' technological superiority in key HBM4 performance metrics such as operating speed and bandwidth.

According to industry sources on March 8, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have been confirmed as suppliers on NVIDIA's Vera Rubin vendor list. The two companies have been provisionally selected as HBM4 suppliers for the flagship next-gen AI accelerator, whose performance hinges critically on this component. HBM4 is an AI server memory chip manufactured by stacking 8 to 16 layers of advanced DRAM built on 11–13nm process nodes atop a base die, enabling rapid delivery of large volumes of data to the GPU in AI accelerators.

Micron, which currently supplies HBM3E to NVIDIA, has been dropped from the Vera Rubin HBM4 vendor list. The company is expected to supply HBM4 for mid-tier AI accelerators optimized for inference — such as the "Rubin CPX" — rather than for Vera Rubin itself.

The selection of Samsung and SK Hynix as the sole HBM4 suppliers reflects their ability to meet NVIDIA's performance and yield requirements. Samsung has effectively passed NVIDIA's bifurcated HBM4 qualification tests targeting operating speeds of 10Gb/s and 11Gb/s. SK Hynix is in the process of optimizing its product for the 11Gb/s test. Samsung's foundry division has also won an order to produce NVIDIA's GPU "RTX 3060," which the company has decided to resume manufacturing, with production set to begin shortly on an 8nm process.

Only Samsung and SK Hynix at the Heart of NVIDIA's "Monster AI Chip" — Micron Eliminated

Since around 2022, when the AI era began, NVIDIA has been the company that determines the fate of memory semiconductor firms. Those that made it into NVIDIA's HBM supply chain became central players in the AI industry; those that didn't saw their standing diminish. Samsung was a prime example — the two-year crisis narrative that plagued Samsung Semiconductor was triggered by delays in HBM3 supply to NVIDIA and only subsided last September when Samsung passed NVIDIA's HBM3E 12-layer qualification test.

Against this backdrop, the selection of Samsung and SK Hynix — and exclusion of Micron — as Vera Rubin HBM4 suppliers is being assessed as highly significant. It opens the door to large-scale NVIDIA shipments over the next one to two years, securing their HBM dominance.

High-Spec HBM4 Orders

According to industry sources on March 8, Vera Rubin hardware will be unveiled for the first time at NVIDIA's developer conference GTC 2026, scheduled for March 16 in Silicon Valley. While no official launch date has been set, a second-half 2026 release is expected. NVIDIA is putting everything into making Vera Rubin's performance more than five times greater than its predecessor, in order to decisively outpace rivals including AMD and Broadcom. More than 80 partner companies worldwide are aligning with NVIDIA to support the launch of this "monster AI accelerator."

Since last year, NVIDIA has identified HBM4 as the critical component underpinning Vera Rubin's success, pushing memory companies to develop high-performance products. It demanded operating speeds exceeding 10Gb/s — well above the 8Gb/s JEDEC standard — for Vera Rubin's HBM4. Capacity has also been scaled up: Vera Rubin will incorporate 16 HBM4 stacks totaling 576GB, surpassing the 432GB HBM4 capacity in AMD's competing next-gen AI accelerator, the MI450.

Micron Eliminated from Vera Rubin

Global memory companies competed fiercely for Vera Rubin HBM4 supply contracts. Winning over NVIDIA — which commands over 80% share in the AI accelerator market where HBM is heavily integrated — means both technological validation and guaranteed strong earnings.

The race for Vera Rubin HBM4 has narrowed to Samsung and SK Hynix. Micron does not appear on the vendor list. "Micron isn't even being discussed as a Vera Rubin HBM4 supplier," one industry source said.

Between the two, Samsung has recently pulled ahead. Samsung has effectively passed NVIDIA's bifurcated qualification tests for both 10Gb/s and 11Gb/s variants of HBM4, and began shipping finished products to NVIDIA last month, albeit in limited volumes. SK Hynix is continuing product optimization with NVIDIA to pass the 11Gb/s test. Given that the process from HBM4 DRAM wafer input to final packaging takes over six months, both companies are expected to begin full-scale HBM4 production as early as this month.

Micron is not entirely out of the HBM4 picture, however — it is likely to supply HBM4 for mid-tier products in the Rubin series rather than for Vera Rubin itself.

Commodity DRAM Pricing Is a Wild Card

Volume allocations and pricing for Vera Rubin HBM4 have yet to be finalized. Some industry observers suggest that while SK Hynix will retain more than half of NVIDIA's total HBM shipments — including HBM3E — this year, Samsung may emerge as the largest supplier when it comes to Vera Rubin HBM4 specifically. Samsung recently expressed strong confidence, stating that its HBM revenue this year will be triple that of last year.

A key variable is commodity DRAM pricing, which has been roughly doubling quarter-over-quarter. The per-Gb price of server DRAM modules such as SOCAMM2 has reportedly risen to approximately $1.30 — approaching the level of HBM3E, the flagship HBM product. From Samsung's perspective, producing commodity DRAM — which does not require the additional expensive stacking processes that HBM4 demands — may be more profitable.

Jensen Huang's meeting with SK Hynix engineers in Silicon Valley to encourage HBM4 development is also being interpreted as a move to check Samsung's growing negotiating leverage. "Samsung holds HBM4, commodity DRAM, and other products, giving it a diverse set of negotiating cards it can play with NVIDIA," one industry observer noted.

$MU

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It opens the door to large-scale NVIDIA shipments over the next one to two years, securing their HBM dominance


村田製社長、データセンター用コンデンサーで値上げの議論-株上昇

Summary: Murata Mfg discussing MLCC price hikes for data centers amid 2x order-to-supply ratio; stock up 6.9%; AI demand expected to continue 3–5 years.

Murata Manufacturing President Discusses Price Hikes for Data Center Capacitors — Stock Rises

▶ 村田製社長、データセンター用コンデンサーで値上げの議論-株上昇

∙ In an interview on the 17th, Murata Manufacturing emphasized that MLCC demand for data centers continues to grow on the back of the AI boom, and that the company has begun full-scale discussions on price increases.

∙ On whether MLCC prices will be raised, management noted: “It is important to accurately assess real demand, and we expect to have a clearer read on demand levels by next quarter.”

∙ The company added that it will carefully determine price hikes, taking into account the broader impact on the market and industry.

∙ Murata also projected that data center investment, led by hyperscalers, will continue over the next 3–5 years.

∙ Current order inquiries for MLCCs are running at approximately 2x the company’s supply capacity, underscoring that AI is not a temporary boom.

∙ Following the report, Murata’s stock reversed into positive territory during afternoon trading, rising as much as 9.2% intraday to ¥3,585 (the highest since July 29, 2024), before closing up 6.9% at ¥3,509.

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Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley's bearish INTC view: capacity constraints, server share loss, margin pressure block re-rating; CPU supply shortage may benefit AMD more.

Morgan Stanley's Intel Earnings Outlook: CPU Supply Shortages Could Boost Results, But It Might Actually Benefit AMD More

Morgan Stanley pointed out in a January 20 report that, amid the currently complex semiconductor cycle, Intel is in a very unusual position. While the supply shortage in the server CPU market could temporarily lift the stock price and lead to better-than-expected earnings in the short term, serious long-term risks—such as production capacity constraints and loss of market share—lie behind this shortage. Morgan Stanley expressed concern that this situation makes it difficult to support a long-term revaluation of Intel's value.

Short-term Tailwind vs. Long-term Concerns

For the earnings report to be released this week, Morgan Stanley believes Intel has a chance of delivering a slight positive surprise in EPS (earnings per share). Analysts expect the data to exceed market expectations thanks to the supply shortage. Specifically, non-GAAP revenue for the December quarter (Q4) is projected at $13.31 billion, down 6.7% year-over-year, which is slightly below Wall Street consensus ($13.407 billion). However, the Data Center & AI (DCAI) segment is forecast to grow 11.5% quarter-over-quarter.

Yet this short-term earnings support cannot mask deeper structural problems. Analyst Joseph Moore highlighted in the report that “even with modest growth, the fact that internal production capacity is already fully sold out is itself concerning.” This means Intel is unable to fully capture the fruits of this demand rebound, and most of the incremental market is being handed over to competitors. AMD has publicly stated it will further expand its leadership in the server market this year with the Venice series, and analysts note that Intel’s current products still lag significantly in performance.

Product Roadmap Gaps

In terms of product competitiveness, Intel is currently in an awkward transition period. While Panther Lake (based on the 18A process) has shown some potential in the notebook segment and demonstrated the viability of the new process, the server and high-end desktop markets still require considerable waiting, according to the analyst.

The report states that regaining competitiveness in the high-end desktop market will require waiting for Nova Lake, expected in the second half of 2026. The server side is even more serious. Management has hinted that Diamond Rapids may lack SMT (hyper-threading), meaning Intel may need to wait until Coral Rapids in the second half of 2027 to truly overtake competitors in performance. During this multi-year gap, current product lines cannot properly capitalize on surging market demand, which will continue to limit upside potential for the stock price.

Foundry Business Credibility Crisis

Intel’s foundry business (wafer foundry), a core part of its transformation strategy, is also being overshadowed by the current supply shortage situation. Morgan Stanley has long been skeptical of Intel’s foundry story, and the present production capacity constraints are amplifying those concerns.

From an external customer’s perspective, seeing that Intel is struggling to meet even the modest growth needs of its own products raises significant doubts about entrusting orders to them. Customers were already worried about having to compete with Intel’s internal products for production resources—and reality has now confirmed those fears. While the foundry narrative has been supporting the stock price to some extent, unless Intel’s product division can capitalize on surging demand, it remains a major hurdle for the foundry business to attract real customers and drive a meaningful valuation increase.

Financial Outlook and Valuation Perspective

For next quarter (March quarter / Q1), Morgan Stanley expects revenue of $12.552 billion, slightly above Wall Street consensus ($12.525 billion). However, they forecast gross margin at 34.9%, below market expectations (36.1%), due to continued pressure from Lunar Lake’s lower margins and early-stage 18A process costs.

Intel currently trades at approximately 35× forward 2027 estimated EPS, a multiple higher than the average for large logic semiconductor companies. This reflects the market assigning a premium to Intel’s future recovery leverage and foundry business optionality. However, considering the lack of server product competitiveness, the reality that most incremental demand is flowing to AMD, and ongoing margin pressure, Morgan Stanley’s analysts judge that current earnings power is insufficient to support further re-rating of the stock. Unless Intel convincingly demonstrates recovery of server market share, an upgrade to investment grade appears difficult...

$INTC


Samsung may hold a relative advantage due to the rising importance of the 'logic die' (base die) starting from HBM4. Samsung possesses this technology in-house

Summary: Samsung favored over SK Hynix in HBM4 race: in-house logic die capability vs. SK Hynix's TSMC dependency and Wuxi fab legacy-fication risk.

Nvidia Ups HBM4 Specs; "SK Hynix’s Structural Vulnerabilities Exposed"

Nvidia has significantly raised the specifications for the 6th generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4), a major inflection point in this year's AI memory market. This forces Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix back to the starting line to modify their next-gen HBM to meet these demanding requirements. Experts observe that Samsung may hold a relative advantage due to the rising importance of the "logic die" (base die) starting from HBM4. Samsung possesses this technology in-house, whereas SK Hynix relies on Taiwan's TSMC, creating a structural differentiation. The logic die serves as the "brain" of the HBM, managing the "traffic control" of power and signals.

Particularly in the case of TSMC, the consensus among domestic and international experts is that they are struggling to keep up with the overwhelming foundry (contract manufacturing) demand fueled by the AI semiconductor boom, making it difficult for them to prioritize investments in HBM logic die production capacity or process migration. This is cited as a vulnerability for SK Hynix, which lacks the independent capability to design and produce its own logic dies.

Escalating Requirements for the "Brain" of HBM
According to industry sources on the 15th, Nvidia updated and delivered its HBM4 supply standards to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the fourth quarter of last year. In response, Samsung is accelerating development, focusing on heat control and performance enhancement by revising logic die designs in collaboration with its Foundry Division.

Generally, HBM is a structure where multiple DRAM dies are stacked vertically. In HBM4, the logic die is the chip attached to the very bottom of this stack, performing functions that DRAM dies alone cannot handle. Consequently, the timing and routing of data transmission, as well as power management, depend on the performance of the logic die.

While the initial standard for HBM4 targeted data transfer speeds of 8–10 Gb/s, Nvidia raised this to 13 Gb/s, significantly increasing the importance of the logic die. At such high-speed intervals, heat and power fluctuations generated by the HBM can lead directly to data processing errors. Therefore, the specifications of the logic die that controls these factors must be improved. This implies that the competition for HBM performance has expanded from DRAM density to logic die design capabilities.

Samsung Confident in In-House Synergy; SK Hynix Faces "TSMC Bottleneck"
A source familiar with Samsung Electronics explained, "Increasing data transfer speeds is manageable through minor revisions to logic die design and processes. Reaching the 13 Gbps per pin level requested by Nvidia is achievable; the real challenge is heat management. However, this is not an issue that will take long to resolve." Previously, Young-hyun Jun, Head of Samsung's DS Division (Vice Chairman), also expressed confidence in HBM4 leadership during his New Year's address.

On the other hand, experts anticipate that SK Hynix will face some difficulties in this process. A professor at a private university in Korea noted, "As HBM generations evolve, technological gaps are beginning to emerge at the logic die level. In SK Hynix's case, they are entirely dependent on TSMC for this technology. From the perspective of TSMC, which is already struggling to meet demand, facility investment and line expansion for logic dies remain a lower priority."

Geopolitical Risks and the "Legacy-fication" of the Wuxi Fab
SK Hynix is also facing a disadvantage compared to Samsung regarding DRAM process migration—the raw material for HBM. In particular, concerns are being raised about the widening technology gap between the Wuxi fab in China, which handles more than 30% of SK Hynix's DRAM production, and its core Icheon fab in Korea. The Wuxi fab faces the risk of needing to obtain "Validated End-User" (VEU) status from the U.S. annually due to sanctions, and equipment imports must comply with standards set by the U.S. government.

Observations suggest that if export licensing procedures become permanent, it will take longer to procure equipment and parts, acting as a barrier to transitioning to advanced processes within China. Korea Ratings recently analyzed in a report that "if restrictions on bringing semiconductor equipment into China persist in the long term, both DRAM and NAND flash fabs located in China will undergo 'legacy-fication' (becoming outdated), which could act as a downward factor for operating performance due to decreased production capacity."

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SK Hynix will face some difficulties in this process… entirely dependent on TSMC for this technology… facility investment and line expansion for logic dies remain a lower priority


Summary: Short MSTR.


Summary: Bullish MU: pushing the largest mobile DRAM price hikes among major memory makers with sufficient demand regardless of Samsung MX's response.

Samsung to Use 50% Micron DRAM in Galaxy S26 — Pricing Negotiations a Key Variable

Samsung Electronics has been found to be producing the initial batch of its Galaxy S26 series — set to launch on the 26th — with Micron DRAM comprising 50% of the mix. Samsung's Mobile eXperience (MX) division has managed to secure volumes more easily amid the recent memory supply shortage, but has been unable to fend off component price pressure.

The DS (Device Solutions) division has already doubled the price of LPDDR5X supplied to Apple, and is unlikely to offer parts to MX at a discount either. With Micron also signaling steep price hikes, significant pressure on MX's profitability is expected, which is predicted to drive price increases for the Galaxy S26 as well.

A source familiar with Samsung's internal affairs said, "Samsung's MX division is producing the Galaxy S26 series initial batch with LPDDR5X from the DS division and Micron at a 50/50 split," adding, "production volumes beyond the initial batch have not yet been determined, so there is effectively no concept of a 'first vendor' at this point."

The mobile DRAM being supplied this time has seen prices rise across the board for both Samsung DS and Micron products, though pricing is understood to have been set at levels below what each company charges competitors. In DS's case, the price increase is reportedly smaller than what it is charging Apple for iPhone DRAM.

For the preceding Galaxy S25 series, Micron DRAM was used exclusively for the first three months after launch. At the time, Micron's products were assessed as superior to Samsung DS's offerings in terms of performance and yield. DS subsequently improved quality, rapidly boosting its mobile DRAM competitiveness, and MX readjusted its sourcing mix. The Galaxy S25 series ultimately settled at a supply structure of roughly 60% DS and 40% Micron.

An industry source noted, "Up until about two years ago, DS's consumer DRAM had intermittent recall (refund) issues, but quality has improved significantly through design margin enhancements."

Starting with the Galaxy S26 series, however, a conventional memory supply shortage has compounded the situation, making volume procurement MX's top priority. The division engaged in intense negotiations with both DS and Micron during Q4 last year, ultimately settling on a 50/50 supply split for the initial batch.

Both suppliers are currently providing LPDDR5X based on the 1b process node. Micron has also submitted LPDDR5X samples based on its 1-gamma (γ; equivalent to 1c) process to MX, but adoption was deferred as it was deemed premature for actual deployment. Instead, for this initial batch, Micron is supplying a product with modestly refined circuit linewidths compared to the LPDDR5X used in the Galaxy S25 series, achieving a 15% improvement in productivity — an opportunity for Micron to enhance profitability.

With Galaxy Unpacked and the S26 reveal approaching, MX is reportedly relieved to have secured initial memory volumes smoothly. The supply mix beyond the initial batch is still under negotiation, though industry observers believe a similar structure is likely to be maintained.

Experts, however, view pricing negotiations as the critical issue. Both DS and Micron plan to push for substantial LPDDR5X price increases in post-initial-batch negotiations. MX plans to partially offset cost pressures by raising Galaxy S26 series pricing and incorporating its in-house Exynos 2600 application processor (AP) in roughly 30% of units. Even so, the consensus is that the steep memory price trajectory will be insufficient to fully relieve profitability pressure.

Samsung's DS division plans to push through with its price hike stance despite being part of the same corporate family. It has already shifted from long-term agreements (LTAs) to quarterly contracts with MX to maximize profitability. Apple — MX's smartphone rival — has also been confirmed to have secured DS's LPDDR5X for the iPhone 17 series at double the previous price. Apple recently held an emergency meeting with DS to negotiate first-half delivery volumes in order to stabilize memory procurement.

A semiconductor industry source said, "Samsung's DS division originally strategized to raise LPDDR5X prices for Apple's iPhone by about 60%. However, at the first negotiation table, they opened with a 100% increase (intending to converge toward 60%), and Apple accepted it on the spot — so that became the final price. That's how desperate smartphone makers are to secure memory inventory."

Micron is also preparing to notify MX of elevated pricing. With limited production capacity, Micron is expected to push the highest mobile DRAM price increases among the three major memory makers. Even if Samsung MX declines, Micron judges that demand from other customers is more than sufficient. Samsung Electronics CEO and DX Division head Roh Tae-moon held an emergency meeting with Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra on the first day of CES 2026 to discuss memory supply issues.

An industry source explained, "The pricing negotiations following the initial batch will determine the share that DS and Micron each hold within Samsung MX's supply chain. The shortage is so severe that even if MX reduces purchase volumes, neither DS nor Micron would have any reason to be concerned."

Meanwhile, Samsung's MX division will hold its "Galaxy Unpacked 2026" event at 3:00 AM KST (Korean time) on the 26th in San Francisco, California, to unveil the Galaxy S26 series. Domestic pre-orders will run from the 27th — the day after Unpacked — through March 5, with the official launch scheduled for March 11.

$MU $AAPL

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Summary: UBS raises INTC PT from $40 to $49 on improved product OpM outlook and foundry 14A narrative, while maintaining Neutral; shared as an endorsement of the raised target.

UBS: Intel FQ4 Earnings Preview

Summary Thoughts

Despite supply that remains tight, we still see an upside bias for FQ4 (Dec) results on PC/server demand strength and see Street numbers (which are about in-line w/normal seasonal) as okay for FQ1 (March) guidance - especially off the stronger Dec Q base.

Fundamentally, we see a mixed (albeit improving) picture this year as CQ1 should also be the worst of INTC's capacity issues (mix shift off Intel 10/7 to more volume for Granite Rapids (Intel 3) and ramp of Panther Lake (18A)). On the flipside though, history tells us that we should expect memory price increases to arrest some of the recent positive momentum in the PC market (see Figure 2).

If INTC guides 2026 revenue (unlikely), we would see low single digits as a reasonable (if not conservative) bar but expect some broader commentary on gross margin (drop-through 40-60%, UBSe full year ~38%), gross/net capex (UBSe ~$19B/$12B or both up slightly Y/Y), and opex $16B (in-line w/ prior guide).

More important though than fundamentals will be the "narrative" around foundry - where we believe things are improving and several potential customers may be engaged for 14A (NVDA (gaming) and potentially Google, AVGO, AAPL (maybe M-Series?)). Momentum on the 14A narrative should start to build once the PDK for the engineering version of the process is out (we think this Q) and PDK 1.0 is released more toward year-end (this would enable customer designs by 1H:28, now only ~2yrs out).

We maintain our estimates for INTC's C25/C26 Revs of $53B/$55B (vs Street at $54B/$56B) and our C25/C26 EPSε at $0.37/$0.51 (vs consensus $0.34/$0.59) as we remain cautious on margins in light of DC/Client share losses. Despite no change to estimates, we are feeling a little better about the OpM that the standalone product business may be able to sustain and now see something more in the mid 20%s (see Figure 12). When considered together with current foundry valuations per installed wafer capacity + higher MBLY valuation, we raise our PT from $40 to $49 but maintain our Neutral rating.

Data Center Demand Likely More Durable vs PCs

At our Conference last month, INTC reiterated a strong demand environment for both DC and Client products. Given the limited supply on INTC 7/10 nodes, the company is de-emphasizing lower-end PC products which we think will offer near-term tailwinds for the Client business.

While we remain bullish on Data Center demand (UBS forecasts traditional servers growing 6% Y/Y - Figure 1), we believe PC demand may moderate from increasing memory pricing given memory accounts for 25-30% of PC BOM. UBS recently revised PC growth forecasts for C2025F/2026F to 7%/4% from prior 4%/3% and another 2% growth Y/Y in C2027F (Figure 4). Total PC units are expected to decline 8% and 8% in Dec Q and Mar Q, but we expect INTC revenues to outperform PC units in Dec Q as it benefits from a richer mix.

We Expect Upwards Bias for Capex

According to INTC, earlier in C2025 the team was emphatic that C2026 Capex would have been down Y/Y from $18B, but we noted a shift in tone at the last earnings call and at our Conference as INTC was suggesting that it continues seeing durability of demand environment as well as CEO's increasingly bullish 14A narrative: we model C2026E Gross Capex at $19B but think it may be biased higher, particularly as INTC's potential customers make decisions on 14A platform in 2H26.

PT $49 (from $40)

We raise our PT from $40 to $49 based on our SOTP valuation framework that values each business separately. For our SOTP valuation, we previously modelled eventual run rate INTC Products OpM at 20% (below peer group and INTC's historical Products segment OpM), assuming a long-term significant margin reduction for Product business in light of INTC's struggles to control OpEx coupled with competitive pressures in the CPU market.

We now increase our OpM estimate to mid-20%, closer to INTC's previously reported 24% (in C23) and as we see broader peer group OpM Avg at 25% in C26 and expanding 300bps to 28% in C27 as we think the mgmt. team is focusing on improving long-term competitiveness of INTC Products.

We value INTC's product business on a consistent 15x EV/EBIT multiple, and netting off the non-controlling interest (basically debt represented by the SCIP agreements for Arizona and Ireland). Our framework looks at an independent valuation for Intel's manufacturing assets based on how other global foundry comps are valued per installed wafer of capacity.

We value INTC's wafer capacity using a higher EV per capacity of $193 (vs. prior $158) based on the same group of peer foundries as well as TSMC (applying a 45% haircut to reflect node and yield gaps, customer stickiness, and utilization risk). See Valuation and Multiple Justification.

$INTC


Summary: Shares Kiwoom Securities Buy on Samsung Electronics, PT 210,000 KRW, on non-memory profitability return, Exynos 2700 ramp, and HBM4 pricing tailwinds.

"Samsung Expected to Turn Non-Memory Business Profitable Next Year" – Kiwoom Securities

Kiwoom Securities forecast on the 10th that Samsung Electronics' non-memory division "will return to operating profit next year," maintaining a 'Buy' rating and a target price of 210,000 won.

Analyst Park Yu-ak of the firm said, "Yield improvements in the 2nm second-generation (SF2P) process to be used for the Exynos 2700, growing customer demand for cost reduction, and improved benchmark performance will lead to greater market share for the Exynos 2700." He added, "The Exynos 2700 will enter full-scale mass production on Samsung Foundry's SF2P process in the second half of this year, and is expected to achieve around 50% adoption within the Galaxy S27."

Accordingly, Kiwoom Securities estimates Samsung Electronics' non-memory division will post revenue of 36.4 trillion won next year, up 21% year-over-year, with operating profit turning to a 1.8 trillion won surplus.

Park noted, "As the market raises its expectations for non-memory earnings, this will serve as additional upside momentum for the stock."

Kiwoom Securities projects Samsung Electronics' total revenue and operating profit this year at 500 trillion won and 173 trillion won, respectively—up 50% and 295% year-over-year. This is based on expectations that commodity DRAM and NAND prices will rise 109% and 105%, respectively, over the same period. The firm also believes the surge in commodity DRAM prices and profitability will create favorable conditions for price negotiations on sixth-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4).

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Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley's bullish META call: PT raised to $825, ad revenue to surpass Google Search in Q2 2026 on AI-driven growth.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Morgan Stanley: Meta Price Target Raised to $825, Meta's Ad Revenue to Overtake Google Search Ads in Q2 2026

In its latest report, Morgan Stanley predicts that Meta's advertising revenue will surpass Google Search advertising revenue for the first time in the second quarter of 2026.

- While Google Search had a 15% growth rate when its quarterly revenue was at the $57 billion scale, Meta is recording high-speed growth of 34–35% at the same revenue scale.

- In Zuckerberg's eyes, the current system is still at a 'primitive' level. Morgan Stanley believes that if the current system is primitive, long-term opportunities and improvements are likely to bring even more growth.

- According to Morgan Stanley's model measurements, Meta's quarterly ad revenue will officially surpass Google Search ad revenue in Q2 2026, and the gap will widen further from then on.

- This not only symbolizes Meta's strengthening dominance in the advertising market but also proves that AI-based recommendation algorithms have an absolute advantage in securing user time and advertiser budgets.

Morgan Stanley analyzed in detail how Meta is converting AI technology into actual revenue.

- Through more efficient model scaling, Instagram Reels watch time increased by over 30%. Facebook increased views by 7% through architecture simplification.

- The application of GEM, an AI ad ranking model, was expanded to all Reels and trained using double the GPU resources. As a result, Facebook's ad click-through rate (CTR) rose by 3.5%, and Instagram's conversion rate improved by over 1%.

- The introduction of a new runtime model improved Instagram conversion rates by 3%. The rollout of internal AI coding tools for employees increased engineer productivity by 30% in 2025, with some power users showing productivity gains of up to 80%.

Regarding capital expenditure (Capex), a key market interest, Morgan Stanley provides a clear outlook. Meta's 2026 Capex guidance is $115 billion to $135 billion, which will be primarily used for the Super Intelligence Lab and core business infrastructure. Infrastructure spending, including cloud expenses and depreciation, is expected to increase by approximately $36 billion, accounting for about 75% of the increase in operating expenses for 2026.

$META


I'm now positive on Silicon Motion as well

Summary: Author is now bullish on Silicon Motion, excluding Fadu as a comparable.

Silicon Motion Technology listed on Nasdaq as SIMO

@chipflare I’m now positive on Silicon Motion as well—excluding Korea’s Fadu.


Summary: Shares UBS Buy-equivalent call on MU, PT $450; memory supply deficit through 2027 + DC demand + margins peaking ~80%.

UBS raised its price target on Micron to $450 with the following commentary...

"More importantly, synthesizing industry conversations suggests that memory supply shortages could extend deeper through C2027 — DRAM could remain in a supply deficit through C4Q27, and NAND could be in shortage through C1Q27.

This is occurring despite our view that accelerating memory price inflation will cause some demand destruction and spec-downs in PCs and smartphones (accordingly, we have lowered related estimates). The key takeaway is that strong data center demand is more than offsetting these headwinds.

(omitted)...

We are modeling gross margins of 69.9%, with an increase sequentially in the May quarter (MayQ) to approximately 74.4%. Accordingly, we expect gross margins to peak in the low 80% range across C1Q27E/C2Q27E."

$MU


Summary: Long VNET as a key beneficiary of ByteDance's RMB 300B capex increase.

ByteDance reportedly increased its capex to RMB 300 billion this year.

From my perspective, $VNET looks poised to benefit significantly from this. https://t.co/bslzCf4OT5


Summary: JPM/Micron mgmt: DRAM/HBM supply deficit persists beyond 2026; DRAM pricing up ~60% Y/Y in CY26; bullish MU on sustained supply-demand tightness.

From JPMorgan’s meeting with Micron management:

Expect DRAM/HBM demand to outstrip supply beyond 2026, even as new capacity comes online, underpinning further strength in pricing. Mgmt reiterated its previous assertion that it is only able to serve 50% to two-thirds of key customers’ medium-term bit demand, adding that even with greenfield clean room capacity starting to come online in CY27, demand will likely continue to outstrip supply. In terms of capacity additions, MU has already pulled forward the timing of first wafer-out for its Idaho 1 fab by about one quarter to mid-CY27, but emphasized that the ramp-up of this greenfield capacity will be gradual (not constrained by capital but rather by physical limitations), and this will be similar for competitors ramping greenfield capacity in late-2027 and 2028, all while demand continues to move up and to the right. On net, we expect this ongoing supply-demand tightness to continue to support pricing strength through CY26 at a minimum (JPMe forecasts average DRAM pricing up almost 60% Y/Y in CY26).


Expect DRAM/HBM demand to outstrip supply beyond 2026, even as new capacity comes online, underpinning further strength in pricing

DRAM sector basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix


Summary: AI-driven PMIC/BCD demand is tightening legacy-node capacity; SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor named as prime beneficiaries of the ongoing price-hike cycle.

SMIC listed on HKEX as 0981.HK (also 688981.SS)

AI Infrastructure Investment Surge: Is the Next Bottleneck PMICs?

While the semiconductor market’s attention is fixated on leading-edge technologies such as HBM and GPUs, subtle but meaningful tectonic shifts are being detected in the legacy-node market. Signals are emerging that the boom in AI infrastructure investment is tightening not only the leading-edge supply chain, but also the legacy-node ecosystem.

Looking across recent industry developments, a new wave of foundry price hikes appears to be spreading. According to reports by China’s Security Times and Kechuangban Daily, China’s largest foundry SMIC and TSMC’s subsidiary VIS (Vanguard International Semiconductor) have moved in tandem to raise prices. In particular, SMIC has sent formal price-increase notices to downstream customers, primarily targeting 8-inch BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) processes, with an average hike of around 10%. VIS has likewise notified customers of a similar increase and has joined this broader trend.

Everyone who saw this news must have been pretty stunned. Weren’t legacy foundries the kind of business where prices collapsed day after day because of a China-driven chicken game? Apparently not. The surge in AI infrastructure investment is bringing warmth to legacy foundries as well. High-performance AI servers and data centers consume enormous amounts of power, and precisely controlling that power requires large volumes of power management ICs (PMICs). The BCD process—central to PMIC production—is a technology that maximizes power efficiency by integrating analog, digital, and power circuits into a single platform. As demand for AI servers explodes, BCD manufacturing capacity (Capa) is being rapidly depleted.

Within China, companies such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, United Nova Technology, and CR Micro that possess BCD platforms are at the center of this benefit cycle. The key point is that this round of price hikes is unlikely to stop at BCD. Industry sources are identifying high-voltage CMOS (HV-CMOS) as the next target for price increases. As BCD demand surges and 8-inch line utilization reaches saturation—pushing BCD pricing higher—HV-CMOS, which had been relatively cheaper, is also likely to rise in a “level-setting” move.

In conclusion, amid structural supply constraints driven by TSMC scaling back 8-inch investment in order to focus on leading-edge nodes, AI-triggered PMIC demand is creating an unexpected “supplier’s market” in the legacy-node space. This suggests that the semiconductor cycle is not confined to cutting-edge memory alone, but that warmth is spreading into legacy processes that underpin power efficiency as well.

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https://t.co/nnivZz9Nyq


Hua Hong Semiconductor 1347.HK Hong Kong


Literally, everything is becoming a bottleneck, isn't it?

Summary: Bullish broad semiconductors: price increases spreading across automotive, analog, power, networking, and CPUs — everything bottlenecked.

Global semiconductor sector proxied by SMH ETF

Automotive chips, industrial analog semiconductors, power switches, high-performance networking chips and connectivity components, CPUs…

Literally, everything is becoming a bottleneck, isn’t it?

Beyond Memory to Non-Memory… Semiconductor Prices Rising Across the Board

Price increases are spreading not only in memory semiconductors but also across the non-memory space. Following the AI infrastructure investment boom that has driven up DRAM and NAND flash prices, supply https://t.co/2nOSEX1wA3


Summary: Endorses JPM's bullish TSMC estimate revisions; impressed by pricing power with 50–100% premium expedited orders.

Holy shit, lol — some customers are willing to pay up to 100% more just to have TSMC make their chips.

"The backdrop is that ~10% of total orders are being processed on an expedited basis with substantial pricing premiums (half at ~50% premium “hot runs” and the other half at ~100% premium “super hot runs”)."

J.P. Morgan: Upward Revision of TSMC Estimates

Our analyst Gokul has recently upgraded his TSMC estimates. The key differences versus consensus are that J.P. Morgan (JPM) forecasts 2026/27 revenue growth of +31%/+25%, which exceeds consensus (~+27%/+22%), and JPM’s 2026/27 gross https://t.co/1bdZumwOMi


Summary: Shares Wolfe Research note suggesting Jensen's pod-production comments imply revenue far above current CY27 estimates; bullish NVDA upside scenario.

Wolfe Research’s analysis on Jensen Huang’s remarks from the Lex Fridman podcast:

“Lastly, we think it is worth paying attention to CEO Jensen Huang’s comments on last week’s Lex Fridman podcast. In that podcast, Jensen said, ‘Contextually, we probably need to make about 200 of them a week.’ We generally take Jensen’s comments seriously, though not always literally. Still, we could not resist running the math: 200 pods per week would imply roughly $120 billion of revenue per month, versus our current CY27 estimate of $482 billion.”

$NVDA


DB HiTek Positioned as a Key Beneficiary... The retreat of giants like Samsung and TSMC from the 8-inch space could provide a significant tailwind for DB HiTek.

Summary: DB HiTek is key beneficiary of Samsung/TSMC 8-inch retreat; already at full capacity with backlog as customers migrate toward it.

DB HiTek 000990.KS Korea KOSPI 8-inch foundry

[Exclusive] Samsung to Shutter Parts of 8-Inch Foundry This Year to Focus on 12-Inch Operations

Samsung Electronics is set to close a portion of its 8-inch foundry fabs within the year. The move is aimed at phasing out low-profit legacy processes and concentrating resources on advanced 12-inch (300mm) production. As TSMC is also scaling back its 8-inch footprint, the global 8-inch foundry market appears to be in a period of contraction.

According to industry sources on the 14th, Samsung Electronics plans to shut down its 'S7' 8-inch line in Giheung during the second half of this year. Samsung currently operates three 8-inch fabs in Giheung (S6, S7, and S8), and has decided to retire one while maintaining the remaining two.

The closure of S7 will reduce Samsung's total 8-inch production capacity from approximately 250,000 wafers per month to below 200,000. S7's monthly capacity is estimated to be around 50,000 wafers. It is reported that the process of migrating existing customers to other lines is already underway. The future utility of the S7 facility has not yet been determined.

Currently, the utilization rate of Samsung's 8-inch fabs is known to hover around 70%. As flagship products such as CMOS Image Sensors (CIS) and Display Driver ICs (DDI) migrate to 12-inch wafers, 8-inch utilization has declined. Furthermore, the need to reassign development personnel to 12-inch advanced processes has increased the burden of maintaining underutilized 8-inch lines.

An industry insider commented, "Unlike specialized pure-play foundries, Samsung's foundry model focuses on high-volume production for a smaller number of large-scale customers. From their perspective, there is little incentive to maintain three separate fabs while utilization remains low."

A Global Shift in the 8-Inch Market
This reduction is not unique to Samsung. Market research firm TrendForce predicts that global 8-inch fab capacity will decrease by 2.4% year-on-year. TSMC began reducing its 8-inch capacity last year and plans to fully decommission some fabs by 2027. TrendForce estimates that Samsung also began its 8-inch scale-back initiatives last year.

Interestingly, while supply is being consolidated, demand for certain segments remains resilient. Driven by the surge in power semiconductors (PMICs) for AI servers, the average global 8-inch utilization rate is projected to rise from 75–80% last year to 85–90% this year. Consequently, some foundry players are considering price hikes of 5% to 20%.

DB HiTek Positioned as a Key Beneficiary
The retreat of giants like Samsung and TSMC from the 8-inch space could provide a significant tailwind for DB HiTek.

DB HiTek is currently operating at full capacity, with a substantial order backlog making it difficult to accept new contracts. The company specializes in analog processes, such as BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS), and maintains a high-variety, low-volume production system tailored for PMICs and DDIs. As Samsung and TSMC reduce their 8-inch footprint, customers are expected to migrate toward DB HiTek.

However, competition remains intense. Players like Taiwan's Vanguard (VIS) and UMC, China's SMIC, and Israel's Tower Semiconductor are all vying for market share. In particular, SMIC is aggressively expanding its volume based on price competitiveness. Meanwhile, Key Foundry is maintaining a utilization rate of around 90%, though its profitability is reported to be relatively low.

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https://t.co/4UhEznYTQp


Summary: Samsung Foundry utilization surpassed 80% in Q1; non-memory division expected to hit breakeven in Q4 with full profitability ramp in 2026.

Samsung Foundry Revival… Q1 Utilization Surpasses 80%, Breakeven as Early as Q4 This Year

Samsung Electronics' (005930) semiconductor foundry utilization rates have surpassed 80%, led by leading-edge nodes, with earnings improving rapidly. As chips developed in-house using Samsung's foundry—including 6th-generation HBM4 and Exynos 2600—have proven their performance, orders from global big tech companies are flooding in, making quarterly profitability within the year highly likely.

According to industry sources on the 22nd, utilization at Samsung Electronics' Pyeongtaek Campus P2 and P3 foundry production lines climbed to the 80% range in Q1. These lines, which produce semiconductors on mature nodes including 4nm, 5nm, and 7nm, struggled with insufficient production volume in H2 2024, with utilization falling well below 50% last year.

However, since H2 last year, Samsung's foundry division has applied its 4nm process to HBM4 base dies for the memory division, achieving the industry's best-in-class performance and driving a surge in order volume. On top of this, big tech companies from both the U.S. and China are placing successive chip production requests, with Samsung's semiconductor business spreading both wings wide. A source well-versed in Samsung's semiconductor production noted, "With orders from global big tech continuing to grow, centered on mature nodes, foundry utilization will comfortably exceed 80% in the first half of this year."

Production volume on Samsung Foundry's cutting-edge 2nm process is also increasing, brightening the earnings outlook. Samsung's in-house mobile application processor (AP), Exynos 2600, is being produced on the 2nm node, and with its performance reportedly surpassing Qualcomm's chips, supply volume for the Galaxy S26 is expected to increase.

Accordingly, Samsung Electronics' non-memory division (Foundry + System LSI) is expected to achieve an earnings turnaround as early as Q4. In particular, starting next year—when production of Tesla's AI5 chip, Apple's image sensors, and other products ramps—overall operating profit is likely to swing to positive.

An industry source noted, "With the foundry business recovering, Samsung Electronics' competitiveness as an integrated semiconductor company will be significantly strengthened."

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https://t.co/yu5F3wfzY4


Summary: Taiwan CCL suppliers — especially EMC and TUC — set to lead AI ASIC server build-out as M8-grade spec upgrades accelerate and margin improves into 2026.

EMC = Elite Material Co. Taiwan CCL maker 2383.TW

▶ASIC server demand boosts Taiwan's high-end CCL shipments

- Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) continue to maintain robust capital expenditures (CAPEX), driving steady growth in the AI server and high-speed network switch markets.

- Against this backdrop, the advancement of CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) material specifications is accelerating, with a gradual increase in orders for high-value-added products.

- Taiwan’s top three CCL manufacturers achieved significant revenue growth in 2025, with all three recording double-digit year-over-year increases.

- Looking ahead to 2026, the penetration of Taiwanese firms into the high-end market is expected to expand further as AI GPU and ASIC server customers begin upgrading to M8-grade or higher CCL materials in earnest.

- Consequently, Taiwanese CCL suppliers are positioned to be key beneficiaries of the expanding investment in AI infrastructure.

- At the same time, price hikes in glass fiber fabrics and copper foils are pushing up prices for low-to-mid-range product lines, which is expected to further improve profit margins.

- However, some concerns have been raised that the benefits for Taiwanese suppliers might fall short of initial expectations due to design change rumors suggesting a potential downgrade in CCL specs for Nvidia’s next-generation products, alongside pressure from competitors such as South Korea's Doosan and China's Sytech.

- Nevertheless, when focusing specifically on the AI ASIC market, EMC and TUC are projected to maintain their positions as dominant suppliers.

- EMC successfully entered the AI server and 800G switch markets, recording a 46.39% YoY revenue increase in 2025—the highest growth rate among the top three.

- While shipment momentum slowed slightly at year-end as some CSP customers entered a product transition phase in Q4, overall performance remained in line with company guidance.

- TUC is also benefiting from increased ASIC server shipments; with the revenue share of high-spec CCL (M7-grade and above) expanding, its 2025 revenue rose 31.53% YoY.

- Iteq is targeting both AI and non-AI server markets simultaneously, achieving a 12.66% revenue increase in 2025 compared to 2024.

- The company identified M7-grade CCL materials for PCIe Gen6 server platforms as the key driver for expanding shipments in 2026.

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https://t.co/A8umkTBnRm


Taiwanese CCL suppliers are positioned to be key beneficiaries of the expanding investment in AI infrastructure

Taiwan CCL sector; EMC 2383.TW confirmed; TUC/Lianmao tickers rejected


Summary: Shares CLSA Buy calls on SK Hynix (PT KRW 1.25M), Samsung (PT KRW 260K), and Micron (PT $495) on HBM4 ramp and memory mix shift driving re-rating.

CLSA estimates that Samsung Electronics began commercial shipments of HBM4 to NVIDIA earlier this month, making a preemptive move ahead of competitors. However, insufficient yields on the 1c nm process are expected to limit meaningful market share gains in the near term.

CLSA projects the following HBM4 market share breakdown going forward: SK Hynix at 55%, Samsung Electronics at 25–30%, and Micron at 20%.

The firm notes that rising commodity DRAM prices are improving profitability, which in turn provides positive support for HBM pricing as players compete over limited production capacity. CLSA assesses that the ongoing shift in revenue mix toward high-value and customized products will continue to drive valuation re-rating for memory stocks.

Target prices: SK Hynix at KRW 1,250,000; Samsung Electronics at KRW 260,000; Micron at USD 495.


Summary: Shares HSBC thesis that agentic AI lifts CPU demand 3-4x vs conventional AI; names INTC and AMD as plays on the trend through 2028.

>> 'Agentic AI' Rise: The CPU's Comeback?

• According to HSBC, approximately 44% of tasks in agentic AI workflows rely on the CPU — roughly 3–4x higher than in conventional AI compute architectures. This signals that CPUs and memory are emerging as the primary bottlenecks constraining compute performance in data centers.

• HSBC has accordingly raised its 2026 global server shipment forecast to +20% YoY. The firm also notes that given supply chain capacity constraints, actual market demand could surge by as much as 60%, with growth tailwinds expected to extend through 2028.

$INTC $AMD

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https://t.co/Mfg4EbLv0r


Nomura has revised up SK hynix's 2026F operating profit to KRW 256 trillion... and its 2027F operating profit to KRW 365 trillion

Summary: Shares Nomura's sharply raised SK Hynix profit estimates on DRAM/NAND price surge; implied bullish endorsement.

Nomura’s latest memory semiconductor comment:

"Second-quarter memory price increases are now expected to significantly exceed previous forecasts. Commodity DRAM is projected to rise 51% QoQ and NAND 50% QoQ, far above prior estimates of +6% for DRAM and +20% for NAND. Accordingly, Nomura has revised up SK hynix’s 2026F operating profit to KRW 256 trillion (approximately US$175.3 billion, up 36% from the previous KRW 189 trillion estimate) and its 2027F operating profit to KRW 365 trillion (approximately US$253.1 billion, up 37% from the previous KRW 267 trillion estimate). Operating margin is projected at 74% in both years. Net profit is forecast at KRW 205.5 trillion for 2026F and KRW 293.5 trillion for 2027F."


Summary: Memory shortages to persist through 2026 as AI server demand outpaces supply for DRAM and NAND; pricing power remains with producers Samsung, Hynix, Micron, Nanya, Winbond, Phison.

Samsung Electronics listed on KOSPI as 005930.KS

Memory shortages to persist through 2026 as AI server demand surges

Global memory markets are expected to remain tight through 2026 as aggressive spending by cloud service providers (CSPs) on AI infrastructure continues to outstrip supply growth for both DRAM and NAND flash, pushing prices higher, according to industry estimates.

The outlook follows a volatile 2025 for memory makers, who entered the year grappling with geopolitical uncertainty and lingering oversupply before conditions tightened sharply in the second half. Analysts expect the imbalance to persist as AI servers take up a growing share of industry output and suppliers allocate capacity toward higher-margin products.

Industry estimates show DRAM bit supply rising about 15% to 20% in 2026, while demand is projected to grow faster at roughly 20% to 25%. NAND flash shows a similar pattern, with bit supply growth of 13% to 18% compared with demand growth of 18% to 23%.

The gap is most pronounced in server applications. Analysts estimate DRAM and NAND consumption tied to servers will expand by 40% to 50% year on year in 2026, driven by sustained investment in AI training and inference at major cloud platforms.

DDR4 exit tightens legacy supply
A rapid pullback from legacy DRAM production has emerged as a central driver of the shortage. Leading suppliers are accelerating the phaseout of DDR4 processes, reallocating wafer capacity to newer and higher-margin products. Industry sources said the share of DDR4 wafer starts at Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is expected to fall to low single digits by the second half of 2026, sharply reducing available supply.

The contraction has fueled a sharp rebound in DDR4 prices. Despite a gradual shift toward DDR5 in some segments, the spot price gap between DDR4 and DDR5 widened into the fourth quarter of 2025, pointing to sustained demand for the older standard. Market participants estimate DDR4 supply will continue to trail demand by around 10% in 2026, keeping prices elevated through at least the second half of the year.

Taiwan-based suppliers have benefited from the shift. Nanya Technology has reinforced its position as the world's largest DDR4 supplier, while Winbond Electronics has raised capital spending and expanded capacity. Winbond plans to lift monthly output at its Kaohsiung facility from about 14,000 wafers to roughly 24,000 to 25,000 wafers, industry sources said.

HBM crowds out DDR5
Supply constraints are intensifying as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) takes up a growing share of advanced production. Capacity for HBM3E at SK Hynix, Micron Technology, and Samsung Electronics is largely booked out, according to industry estimates. With SK Hynix's HBM4 already passing customer validation, rivals are expected to move quickly into HBM4, further tightening supplies of standard DDR5.

At the same time, AI servers and new CPU platforms are adopting higher capacity DDR5 RDIMM configurations, reinforcing suppliers' focus on enterprise and AI products. Market estimates show the contract price for Samsung's 64GB DDR5 RDIMM rose from about US$265 in the third quarter of 2025 to around US$450 in the fourth quarter and could approach US$480 in the first quarter of 2026, with additional increases possible.

Excluding HBM, prices for conventional DRAM climbed by close to 50% or more in the fourth quarter of 2025, analysts said. That momentum is expected to carry into the first half of 2026, and the scale of the supply gap suggests limited scope for price declines even later in the year.

Demand for 128GB and higher capacity DDR5 modules, along with SOCAMM2 configurations using LPDDR5X, is expected to absorb a larger share of DRAM output in 2026. HBM4 also involves higher wafer consumption and more complex yield management, adding to structural supply pressure.

As memory makers increasingly suspend formal quotations and push through repeated price increases, buyers in non-AI and consumer segments face rising procurement costs and difficulty securing supply.

NAND capacity offers limited relief
On the NAND side, capacity additions remain constrained. While Kioxia and YMTC are building new facilities, industry sources said meaningful output contributions are unlikely before the second quarter of 2026, limiting any near-term impact on supply conditions.

The surge in AI inference is also reshaping NAND demand. Capital spending tied to inference infrastructure overtook training workloads in 2025 and is expected to rise further in 2026, driving rapid growth in enterprise SSD demand. North American cloud operators are increasingly seeking 128TB to 256TB SSDs, prompting a shift from TLC to QLC NAND to balance cost and storage density.

Aggressive capacity reservations by cloud providers have already pushed NAND prices sharply higher. Wafer prices jumped by roughly 95% to 100% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to market estimates, and some buyers were unable to secure supply even at higher prices. Analysts expect NAND shortages and price increases to extend into 2026, although the pace of increases is likely to moderate.

Module makers brace for margin pressure
Tight supply conditions are forcing memory module makers to ration shipments and prioritize strategic customers. While higher average selling prices support revenue growth, rising input costs are squeezing margins and intensifying competition for supply.

Adata said the market is likely to become increasingly polarized in 2026, with some module vendors able to secure a stable supply while others face persistent shortages. Industrial memory supplier Innodisk said cloud AI will be the key driver next year, adding that faster adoption of AI inference and edge applications could benefit vendors with established AI-focused portfolios.

Controller maker Phison Electronics said it secured part of its 2026 supply during the seasonal slowdown, but volumes remain insufficient to meet demand. The company expects the supply imbalance to persist for several years and plans to scale back retail shipments while concentrating resources on higher-value enterprise customers.

Analysts cautioned that risks remain, including execution challenges in advanced memory production and potential shifts in cloud spending. Heading into 2026, AI-driven demand and structural supply constraints continue to leave pricing power firmly with memory producers.

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https://t.co/e4erPPclae


Capacity for HBM3E at SK Hynix, Micron Technology, and Samsung Electronics is largely booked out


Nanya Technology has reinforced its position as the world's largest DDR4 supplier

Nanya Technology Corp listed on TWSE as 2408.TW


Winbond Electronics has raised capital spending and expanded capacity

Winbond Electronics listed on TWSE as 2344.TW