Memory conditions continue to improve, as we reports of intensifying shortages across the board... we are seeing a generational tightness across all areas... current spending levels do not seem likely to catch up to demand in the next few quarters

Summary: Morgan Stanley rebuttal: memory shortages intensifying across DRAM/NAND, supply can't catch demand for several quarters; bullish MU, Samsung, Hynix and NVDA on margin resilience.

Morgan Stanley’s rebuttal to the recent concerns about the memory semiconductor sector:

Memory conditions continue to improve, as we reports of intensifying shortages across the board. It seems most pronounced in DDR5 DRAM, where there is an active sense of crisis that product is not available at any price, whereas in other areas, such as consumer grade NAND, there is more of a sense that there will be a shortage, but less of a near term crisis. Nevertheless, we are seeing a generational tightness across all areas.

Stocks have sold off lately due to concerns about higher capital spending, or the view that shortages may be easing, but neither impacts our view. In terms of spending we saw multiple articles last week on increased investment activity from both Samsung and Hynix with Micron also speaking to "upside pressure" to their capital investment guidance from last earnings at a competitor conference. We recognize that's likely to invite additional skepticism on the longevity of the cycle, but context here is key. All three suppliers have spoken already to sold out market conditions in the face of accelerating cloud demand, and with the HBM trade ratio any attempts to catch-up to that demand needs to be met with higher capital spending. Samsung/Hynix will both see greenfield in 2026, MU closer to 2027 something that hasn't changed over the last few weeks.

We have argued that DRAM spending is high relative to longer term run rates, but the "correct" level of capital spending is driven by a somewhat steady state view of
demand, whereas currently we are clearly seeing strong demand on the back of the AI build; current spending levels do not seem likely to catch up to demand in the
next few quarters. China's memory efforts have not particularly inflected, though their spending is part of what we would point to as elevated vs. the longer term
trend line. That's more of a concern for investors in NAND than DRAM, as YMTC has had an outsized impact on that market in the past. But we would emphasize that all suppliers outside of China have taken a much more measured approach to serving domestic Chinese demand with MU specifically exiting large segments of that market in its entirety. YMTC is significant in scale, but the supply-demand imbalance in NAND is far more significant than the few percentage points impact YMTC is likely to have even in an aggressive capital expansion scenario. We also heard concerns that a pc OEM said that "memory is not a problem". But we are visiting with several DRAM customers in Asia this week, and while we will form conclusions at the end of that trip, it is very clear that the industry collectively does not have enough inventory, even if one employee from one OEM does feel comfortable. Generally speaking, the focus should not be on companies securing supply, it's what they have to do to get it. And we continue to hear about agreements that embed multiple quarters of significant pice increases, with large penalties if customers don't take the supply.

We also heard some concerns about NVIDIA's statement that they are aspiring to continue gross margins in the mid 70s even as input costs increase. While it is
true that HBM price increases are sticky, and thus will likely lag DDR5 pricing in the short run, we think that NVIDIA has a very good opportunity to pass through
memory increases. We believe that HBM costs for NVIDIA are about one third of cost of sales, or about 8% of revenues (given 75% gross margins), while those costs for competitors tend to run above 50% of cost of sales for companies with 50% gross margin - that is, HBM is closer to 25% of revenues. The most likely path for NVIDIA to maintain 75% gross margins is to raise prices slightly, given that peers would have to raise them by a higher percentage.

The risk in our view is demand destruction in consumer markets, but that likely seems to be a case for moderation of rate of change - which we already expect over the course of 2026 - rather than a reversal. In the most marginal areas of the market we're seeing this begin to play out (China’s SMIC Expects Memory Shortage to Hit Cars, Phones in 2026; PC hardware vendor PNY suspends Black Friday storage deals — cites rising NAND costs). As DRAM/NAND increasingly gets diverted to markets where buyers have the highest willingness to pay, and a situation where bit shipment growth is limited by production capacity - a good
outcome for memory earnings.


Samsung/Hynix will both see greenfield in 2026... all three suppliers have spoken already to sold out market conditions in the face of accelerating cloud demand

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


Samsung/Hynix will both see greenfield in 2026... generational tightness across all areas


NVIDIA has a very good opportunity to pass through memory increases... The most likely path for NVIDIA to maintain 75% gross margins is to raise prices slightly


Summary: Terse buy instruction on TSMC.


Summary: Citi reiterates Buy on MU, raises estimates and PT; expects DRAM long-term AI contracts to drive gross margins to 60% and peak EPS >$23.

Citi) Micron – Following the Footsteps of AI: DRAM Expected to Face Unprecedented Demand Next; Margins to Return to Peak Levels, Estimates and Target Price Raised

We believe that DRAM will be the next semiconductor to sign long-term contracts with AI-related companies — similar to what has happened with NVIDIA (NVDA), AMD, and Broadcom (AVGO) — due to its critical role in the AI ecosystem and the emerging supply shortage. This will benefit Micron through higher and more sustainable DRAM prices, driving its gross margins back to the peak 60% range and boosting peak EPS to over $23.00, nearly double its previous record of $12.26.

We are raising both our above-consensus estimates and target price, while maintaining our Buy rating on Micron (MU).

$MU


Summary: Author shares/endorses U.S. broker upgrades to CoWoS capacity and wafer demand forecasts for TSMC, NVDA, AVGO, and AMD into 2026-2027.

• 2330 TSMC: U.S. broker raises CoWoS capacity forecast

The U.S. securities house has revised up its CoWoS capacity outlook. It expects capacity to reach 105,000 wafers per month in 4Q26 (previously 95,000 wafers), and to reach 141,000 wafers per month by the end of 2027. The updates to wafer usage by major customers are as follows:

• Nvidia: Revised up
• The outlook for next year’s CoWoS wafer usage has been revised up to around 700,000 wafers (previously 580,000 wafers).
• Rubin is expected to start ramping from 2Q26.
• However, next year is still expected to be constrained by N3 and CoWoS-L capacity.
• CVP is expected to adopt CoWoS-R, as it is introducing SoCAMM memory for the first time.
• Rubin CPX is not expected to use CoWoS-S, and is ultimately likely to be manufactured with an FCBGA process.

• Broadcom (博通): Revised up
• The current expected wafer usage is 20,000 wafers, but actual customer demand may be higher than this.
• Demand for Google TPU (v6p / v7p) is strong, and Tomahawk 6 is scheduled to adopt CoWoS-S (Tomahawk 5 is mostly flip-chip BGA).
• Anthropic and internal token usage are both on an uptrend.

• AMD: Revised up
• Next year’s CoWoS demand has been revised up from 80,000 wafers to 90,000 wafers, reflecting strong demand for the MI450 series and Venice CPU, both of which are likely to use CoWoS.
• However, the broker still sees uncertainty in AMD’s outlook. Since the production schedule is mostly concentrated in the second half of next year, any issues with OpenAI’s custom designs or Helios rack assembly could cause delays.

• AWS: Unchanged (stable)
• Trainium 3 remains at around 80,000 wafers, with first wafer shipments expected to occur in 2Q26.
• For next year, around 700,000 additional Trainium 2 / 2.5 chips are also expected.

• Outsourcing (OSAT): Significant increase
• Some of the substrate packaging steps for CoWoS-L have already been outsourced, and by next year about 70% is expected to be outsourced to 3711 ASE (日月光).

• 3D-SoIC
• TSMC is making early capital investments to expand N3-SoIC capacity.
• It is observed that the goal is to increase N3-SoIC capacity to 22,000 wafers per month / 30,000 wafers per month next year / the year after.

• CoPoS (panel-level packaging)
• It appears likely to become a mainstream process route going forward.
• TSMC and the OSAT ecosystem are actively adopting 310×310mm square panels as the next-generation interposer material after 2028.
• However, since it remains quite difficult to secure good yield at very fine L/S (line width/spacing), CoWoP is likely to take the position of a lower-cost but not cutting-edge packaging solution going forward.

• WMCM (wafer-level module packaging)
• There is no change in the capacity outlook.
• Non-Apple customers (e.g., Qualcomm) are also seen to be interested in applying WMCM-type solutions to PC or flagship smartphone processors.

$NVDA $AMD $AMZN $AVGO $TSM

早安！11/14 外電綜合整理

- 2330台積電：美系上修CoWoS 產能
美系券商上修CoWoS產能在4Q26可達到每月 10.5 萬片（先前為 9.5 萬片），預估 在2027 年底可達每月 14.1 萬片。主要客戶用量更新如下：

*Nvidia: 上修。預估明年 CoWoS 晶圓用量至約 70 萬片（原先為 58 萬片）。預期 Rubin


The outlook for next year's CoWoS wafer usage has been revised up to around 700,000 wafers (previously 580,000 wafers)


Broadcom (博通): Revised up. The current expected wafer usage is 20,000 wafers, but actual customer demand may be higher than this


AMD: Revised up. Next year's CoWoS demand has been revised up from 80,000 wafers to 90,000 wafers


This is ridiculously fantastic to the point it's hard to believe lol. Revenue: midpoint $18.7B (vs. consensus $14.38B) … EPS: midpoint $8.42 (vs. consensus $4.71)

Summary: MU FY2Q26 guidance massively above consensus on revenue, GPM, and EPS; author calls it ridiculously fantastic — durable bullish read.

FY2Q26 guidance (Non-GAAP basis)
• Revenue: midpoint $18.7B (vs. consensus $14.38B)
• GPM: midpoint 68% (vs. consensus 55.7%)
• EPS: midpoint $8.42 (vs. consensus $4.71)

This is ridiculously fantastic to the point it’s hard to believe lol.

$MU


Summary: Bullish INTC: IFS wins Microsoft Maia 2 order with potential for multi-gen foundry relationship; 18A process proceeding smoothly.

"If this project goes well, we expect the next few generations of the Maia chip to also be manufactured (fabbed) at Intel. The last sentence is not an evaluation of Intel’s 18A or 18AP process, but rather a general statement about the project as a whole. From a process standpoint, as SemiAccurate has been saying for years, everything is proceeding smoothly without any issues."

from Semiaccurate

Just in: IFS wins Microsoft Maia 2 chip order – SemiAccurate

$INTC


Summary: Supply-side cuts + AI-driven demand surge point to sharp memory price rise in H1 next year; bullish Samsung, Hynix, Micron and memory sector broadly.

Memory chips basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

[Exclusive] Many smartphone makers temporarily halt memory chip purchases… some have less than three weeks of inventory left

On November 14, Jiemian News (界面新闻) learned from exclusive sources that as upstream memory semiconductor (storage chip) prices have soared, multiple smartphone makers have already temporarily suspended their memory chip purchases for this quarter. Smartphone makers such as Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo generally have less than two months of inventory, and some manufacturers have less than three weeks of DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) inventory left. They are hesitating over whether to accept the quotes from original manufacturers (Micron, Samsung and SK hynix), which include price hikes of as much as nearly 50%.

An employee at one original manufacturer, Jackey, told Jiemian News, “We are not in a situation right now where we’re worried about our products not selling. If the smartphone makers don’t want them, we can allocate our capacity to server customers. They’re also short of supply at the moment, and we can sell to them at even higher prices.”

The surge in data-center demand for memory chips driven by the boom in large AI models is one of the factors behind this round of sharp memory price increases. Server makers are generally willing to pay higher prices in order to secure memory chips. According to information obtained by Jiemian News, for the same memory product, the prices that distributors quote to server customers are typically more than 30% higher than those offered to smartphone makers.

According to a report by the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Daily (科创板日报), Samsung Electronics earlier became the first to suspend offering contract prices for DDR5 DRAM in October, and the issuance of new quotes is expected to be postponed until mid-November. This move drove spot prices for DDR5 up by 25% in just one week. At the same time, the four major memory makers—Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia and Micron—have all cut their NAND flash supply in the second half of this year in a concerted effort to push prices higher.

Samsung’s NAND wafer production target for this year has been lowered to 4.72 million wafers, about 7% down from last year’s level of 5.07 million. Kioxia has likewise reduced its annual output from 4.8 million wafers last year to 4.69 million. SK hynix’s NAND production is falling from 2.01 million wafers last year to around 1.8 million, a cut of 10%. Micron’s largest NAND manufacturing base, its Fab 7 plant in Singapore, is also keeping output at just over 300,000 wafers, maintaining a conservative stance on supply.

The report also pointed out that as more production lines are converted to 4-bit cell (QLC) processes in response to rising AI demand, an effective decline in NAND flash output will be unavoidable. North American tech giants, worried that NAND prices could spike, have already begun “panic stockpiling (panic buying),” and some suppliers’ NAND allocations for next year are already fully booked.

A week ago, flash memory leader SanDisk sharply raised its November contract prices for NAND flash by 50% in one go, which in turn spurred further price-hike moves by memory giants such as Micron.

Jackey explained to Jiemian News that “the typical stockpiling (inventory) cycle for smartphone makers is about three months, and at present, most companies have just over one month of DRAM inventory and around two months of NAND inventory left.” He added, “Right now we’re in a situation of ‘undersupply,’ so if smartphone makers want to build finished sets (final products) properly, in the end they have no choice but to accept the prices that the original manufacturers are currently quoting—it’s only a matter of time. That said, from the perspective of the original manufacturers, they cannot ignore their relationships with smartphone customers, so they can’t simply rely on the (server) market alone.”

Memory chips are known as “the second-largest component in a handset,” with their cost contribution ranking second only to the AP (application processor, i.e., CPU). Depending on the model and configuration, memory chips generally account for around 10–30% of total cost, and in high-end models with high-capacity configurations such as 12GB + 512GB, the share of memory can exceed 20%. Due to the sharp rise in memory chip prices in the third quarter of 2025, prices of mid- to high-end smartphones have generally increased by about 100–500 yuan, and for example, the price gap between the 12GB + 256GB and 16GB + 512GB configurations of the OPPO Find X9 series has reached as much as 900 yuan.

Meanwhile, this surge in memory chip prices is already affecting the broader smartphone industry. A representative of a domestic smartphone brand told Jiemian News reporters, “Right now, every company is closely watching rivals’ product strategies for next year. Under the backdrop of rising memory prices, it’s still undecided whether to lower specifications or to raise consumer prices, and quite a few projects have been put on hold because memory price hikes have pushed costs up too much.”

On November 13, Zhao Haijun (赵��军), co-CEO of SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, 中芯国际), said at the company’s earnings briefing for the third quarter of 2025 that “because of memory shortages and price increases, industries such as smartphones and network communications equipment have become somewhat more cautious about securing volumes.” He added that in order to handle urgent rush orders related to memory and analog, SMIC postponed shipments of some smartphone-related products in the third quarter.

According to supply-chain sources, original manufacturers typically hold about 6–8 weeks of inventory and adjust contract prices each quarter based on supply-demand conditions at the time. As inventories at several major original manufacturers have now begun to run low, there is practically no room left to make large concessions on price.

“We are currently in a phase where all parties are engaged in a tug-of-war,” one source explained. “To maintain customer relationships, the chip original manufacturers are trying to allocate inventory to smartphone makers first, while the smartphone makers are waiting to see who moves first and sets a reference price. Only then can they start further negotiations from that baseline.” The source added, “But in this kind of situation, the only company that truly has the clout to lead price negotiations is Apple.”

He also said, “Even if the original manufacturers decided to expand capacity now, it would still take at least one to two years to bring production capacity in line with current market demand. We cannot rule out the possibility that there is some froth in today’s hot AI demand, and we will only know the true scale of demand next year. At this point in time, it’s unlikely that original manufacturers represented by Samsung and SK hynix will blindly embark on capacity expansion; instead, they are more likely to opt for production cuts in order to secure higher profits.” Therefore, he predicted, “There is a high probability that memory chip prices will see another sharp rise in the first half of next year.”

---

https://t.co/YGRzcik5nO


the four major memory makers—Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia and Micron—have all cut their NAND flash supply in the second half of this year in a concerted effort to push prices higher


Samsung Electronics earlier became the first to suspend offering contract prices for DDR5 DRAM in October


SK hynix's NAND production is falling from 2.01 million wafers last year to around 1.8 million, a cut of 10%


Summary: Hanmi Semi faces Sell/Underperform from UBS/Macquarie on Micron HBM4 delays and near-zero Samsung supply chance; Micron HBM4 ramp pushed to 2027.

Despite Hanmi Semiconductor’s courting… “Samsung Electronics is unlikely to accept delivery of TC bonders.”

U.S. Micron, the world’s No. 3 player in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market after SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, is increasingly expected to face difficulty supplying its next-generation HBM4 to “major HBM buyer” Nvidia. Because it has begun to redesign HBM4 to meet Nvidia’s requirements, the view is that it will start deliveries only in 2027—about a year later than competitors.

As Micron’s HBM4 development falls behind, Hanmi Semiconductor, which supplies “thermo-compression (TC) bonders” (DRAM bonding equipment) needed for HBM manufacturing, is likely to take a hit as well. Micron accounts for a high share of its revenue, and the chances of breaking into Samsung Electronics as a new customer are almost nil. SK hynix began awarding work to Hanwha Semitec this year. Taking these factors into account, global investment banks (IBs) have downgraded Hanmi Semiconductor’s rating to “Sell.”

According to the semiconductor industry on the 4th, Hong Kong’s GF Securities said in an analysis report on the 3rd that “Micron is having difficulty meeting the data-processing speed of ‘10 gigabits per second (Gb)’ presented by Nvidia,” adding, “Because there are also yield issues, there is a high possibility that the timing of HBM4 mass shipments will be postponed to 2027.” Although Micron dismissed market concerns at the earnings briefing held in September, the aftershocks continue. By contrast, competitors SK hynix and Samsung Electronics have set up mass-production systems for HBM4.

It is also a negative for Micron that Nvidia, in a press release on the 31st of last month, officially referred to Samsung Electronics as a “core partner of the HBM4 supply chain.” If Samsung Electronics’ share of HBM4 deliveries increases, Micron’s position is more likely to narrow than SK hynix’s. SK hynix, which has firmly established itself as Nvidia’s No. 1 supplier for HBM3E, is expected by the industry to occupy the same position in HBM4.

Sparks fly to Hanmi… Global IBs recommend ‘Sell’

The spillover from Micron’s HBM4 slump is hitting Hanmi Semiconductor, a producer of TC bonders. This year Hanmi Semiconductor has increased Micron’s share of sales in place of SK hynix. In the first half, about 82% (269.9 billion won) of Hanmi Semiconductor’s sales (327.4 billion won) came from exports. As recently as last year, domestic sales (58.7%) were larger than overseas (41.3%), but with Micron exports increasing, the balance flipped in just one year.

In this situation, as HBM4 equipment orders from customers such as Micron were delayed, third-quarter results registered an “earnings shock.” Operating profit was 67.822 billion won, 38.7% below the consensus (the average of securities-firm forecasts) of 110.6 billion won.

Global IBs are rushing to issue negative opinions on Hanmi Semiconductor. On the 3rd, UBS said “the TC bonder outlook needs to be reset,” and downgraded its rating from Neutral to “Sell.” Macquarie also lowered its recommendation to “Underperform,” saying “the current share price already reflects rosy expectations (of supplying Samsung Electronics).” J.P. Morgan cut its 2026 EPS forecast by 15.8%, from 5,331 won to 4,488 won.

Low likelihood of a Samsung Electronics supply deal

To diversify its customer base, Hanmi Semiconductor is pursuing a plan to supply TC bonders to Samsung Electronics. The fact that the share price has risen 45.7% compared with late September is analyzed as reflecting expectations of a deal.

Hanmi Semiconductor Chairman Kwak Dong-shin even personally welcomed Song Jae-hyuk, President and Chief Technology Officer (CTO) of Samsung Electronics’ Device Solutions (DS) Division, during a booth tour at the “Semiconductor Grand Expo” held at COEX in Samseong-dong, Seoul, on the 22nd of last month, underscoring the effort being made.

However, the semiconductor industry assesses the likelihood of a deal as low. This is because Samsung Electronics is placing emphasis on strengthening cooperation with companies already in its TC bonder supply chain, such as SEMES.

An industry source well-versed in Samsung Electronics said, “You can assume there is almost no possibility that Samsung Electronics will order Hanmi Semiconductor’s TC bonder,” adding, “There will be no change in the existing TC bonder procurement policy.” Global IB J.P. Morgan likewise wrote in an analysis report that “it is uncertain whether Hanmi Semiconductor will receive TC bonder orders from Samsung Electronics,” cautioning against optimism because “Samsung Electronics prefers SEMES.”

---

https://t.co/MSybSwG8bp


Morgan Stanley projects AWS's revenue growth over the next two years at 23% and 25%, respectively, and expects the explosion in AI demand to generate an additional $6 billion in revenue in 2026

Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley bullish AWS/Amazon thesis: 23%/25% revenue growth, $6B AI upside in 2026, capacity expansion laying groundwork for 2026–2027 acceleration.

Morgan Stanley: AWS is suffering from compute bottlenecks, and AWS is now entering an “AI growth acceleration cycle.”

Morgan Stanley’s analyst summarized four key growth drivers.
① Rapid expansion of capacity:
By year-end, it will secure an additional 1 GW of compute capacity, and the number of Trainium2 chips will double.

② Structural expansion cycle:
Over the next 24 months, AWS plans to add 10 GW of data center capacity.

③ Surge in AI orders:
In October alone, new order volume exceeded the entire third quarter, and the new business signed in a single month amounts to about $18 billion.

④ Acceleration of innovation:
There is a high likelihood that Trainium3 will be unveiled by year-end, and the Bedrock software platform is also continuing to expand.

The report notes that AWS remains “capacity constrained” at present, and that “the supply shortage itself is becoming the core of the growth logic.”

According to Morgan Stanley’s analysis, AWS appears to have signed approximately $18 billion in new business in October alone.
This exceeds the total new business contract volume for the entire third quarter.

“If there were no compute bottlenecks, AWS’s growth would have been faster.”
“These expansion plans are laying the groundwork for another acceleration in 2026–2027,” the analyst stated.

Morgan Stanley projects AWS’s revenue growth over the next two years at 23% and 25%, respectively, and expects the explosion in AI demand to generate an additional $6 billion in revenue in 2026.
This is expected to lift the overall growth rate by about 4 percentage points.

Additionally, Morgan Stanley raised Amazon’s 2026/2027 capital expenditure (Capex) outlook by 13%/19%, projecting total capex of $169 billion/$202 billion. This implies Amazon would invest $140 billion/$170 billion in technology and infrastructure, respectively—figures higher than those of other big tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, and Google.

$AMZN $META $GOOG $MSFT


Summary: Citi bullish on analog semis into 2026 upturn; top pick Microchip, also positive on TXN, NXPI, ADI on low inventories and constrained supply.

Citi noted in its latest report that the biggest surprise within semiconductors in 2026 could come from analog semiconductors.

“Given currently very low inventories, constrained supply growth, and depressed margins, we expect an analog upturn in ’26. We maintain a positive view on Microchip, Texas Instruments, NXP, and Analog Devices, with Microchip as our top pick.”


We maintain a positive view on Microchip, Texas Instruments, NXP, and Analog Devices


Summary: GF Securities reiterates Buy on MU, raises PT to $323 on strong FY1Q26, blowout FY2Q26 guidance, HBM4 upside, and DRAM upcycle through 2026.

《GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Telecom》
☄ Micron FY1Q26 Earnings Review: DRAM Remains Strong

☀ Maintain Buy rating; raise target price to US$323: Micron reported strong FY1Q26 results, with revenue of US$13.6bn and EPS of US$4.78. FY2Q26 guidance far exceeded expectations, with revenue midpoint of US$18.7bn and EPS midpoint of US$8.42 (vs. recent buy-side expectations of ~US$6.5 and our prior forecast of US$7.34). We see Micron’s gross margin on a clear upward trend: 57% in FY1Q26, expected to exceed 68% in FY2Q. We remain bullish on the long-term AI-driven upcycle in DRAM. Micron’s HBM4 development has also exceeded expectations, with volume shipments starting in FY2Q26. Maintaining 4x FY2026E P/B, we raise our target price to US$323.

☀ DRAM cycle remains strong throughout 2026: After ~45% QoQ increases in DRAM contract prices, we expect prices in CY1Q26 to stay strong, with QoQ gains of over 30%. Although Samsung and SK are accelerating DRAM capacity expansion, we believe supply pressure will not emerge in the near term, as wafers from new capacity will only come online in 2027. Management stated that DRAM supply will remain tight for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, we see CSPs working to raise inventory to 3–4 months, versus current inventory of less than 2 months. CSPs have already begun discussions with memory makers on 2027 LTAs, and our channel checks indicate that Meta and Google are even negotiating with Samsung for 5-year LTAs. Despite weak demand in consumer electronics, we expect DRAM pricing to remain healthy in CY2Q26, supported by strong CSP demand, though the pace of increases should slow to 5–10%.

☀ HBM4 development exceeds expectations: Management stated that all HBM capacity for 2026 has been fully booked, including its industry-leading HBM4 products. We believe Micron’s HBM4 development has exceeded expectations and is planned for volume shipments starting in FY2Q26. Our channel checks show that Micron’s 11 GB/s HBM4 has passed NVIDIA certification, and we estimate FY2Q26 HBM4 shipments at ~300k units. Looking ahead, Micron raised its HBM TAM forecast to US$100bn by 2028, implying a 40% CAGR, reaching the US$100bn milestone two years earlier than previously expected.

$MU


Summary: Morgan Stanley raises PTs on Samsung (₩111k) and SK Hynix (₩480k); bullish DRAM cycle through 2026 on AI-driven demand, supply shortfall, and HBM expansion.

Korea Memory Revival – DRAM-Centric Bullish Cycle Resumes (Morgan Stanley)

⸻

1. Market and Cycle Outlook
    • Memory price uptrend in 4Q is steeper than expected; strong cycle expected to persist through 2026.
    • DRAM-driven supply-demand imbalance is deepening, with supply unable to keep up with demand for the next 4–6 quarters.
    • DRAM prices in 2025 could rise by more than 50% YoY; NAND also accelerating recovery, led by enterprise SSD demand.
    • Rapid AI token growth (50% MoM) is driving memory demand, mirroring past DRAM price upcycles.
    • Morgan Stanley sees DRAM as still undervalued relative to the semiconductor sector, leaving room for further valuation re-rating.

⸻

2. Samsung Electronics
    • Target price raised from ₩97,000 → ₩111,000, applying 2026E P/B of 1.62x.
    • EPS estimates revised up by +6.7% (2025), +9.3% (2026), +18.1% (2027).
    • DRAM price increase assumption revised from +26% → +35%, NAND from +10% → +15%.
    • Expanding DRAM capacity at Pyeongtaek P4 fab and transitioning to HBM4 production, slated for commercialization in 2026.
    • Over the next two quarters, HBM4 qualification and customer wins are seen as key share price catalysts.

⸻

3. SK Hynix
    • Target price raised from ₩410,000 → ₩480,000.
    • EPS estimates revised up by +6% (2025), +16% (2026), +26% (2027).
    • DRAM ASP assumption raised (4Q25 +15%) and NAND margin revised from 10% → 15%.
    • Expected surge in DRAM/HBM demand due to expanding AI infrastructure investments (including OpenAI’s Stargate project).
    • Reflecting higher HBM/DRAM shipment forecasts for 2026–27, 2027E EPS: ₩77,739.
    • Valuation based on 2026E P/B of 2.4x, similar to historical cycle peaks.
    • Additional profit leverage expected from full depreciation of Solidigm’s Dalian SSD fab assets.

⸻

4. Cycle and Valuation Insights
    • DRAM stocks remain undervalued relative to the broader semiconductor sector, but AI-driven memory TAM expansion (HBM expected to surpass DRAM by 2028) supports re-rating potential.
    • SK Hynix’s 2027E EPS estimated at ₩65,000–₩77,000, with bull-case target price of ₩580,000.
    • Both DRAM and NAND inventories have fallen below normal levels, with customer restocking worsening supply shortages.
    • While short-term overheating risks exist, valuations remain below past cycle peaks (Samsung P/B 1.3x, SK Hynix P/B 2.1x).


Target price raised from ₩410,000 → ₩480,000


DRAM prices in 2025 could rise by more than 50% YoY; DRAM stocks remain undervalued relative to the broader semiconductor sector

Korea DRAM sector: Samsung Electronics + SK Hynix


Summary: Bullish on memory sector; supply discipline by Samsung and SK Hynix limiting capex signals favorable pricing environment ahead.

Global DRAM memory basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

Finally, memory companies are colluding to limit supply. This is a welcome development.

An executive at Samsung Semiconductor stated, “Korean companies, too, have learned their own lessons about how to navigate a super-boom cycle,” adding, “In the past, many companies repeated the vicious cycle of overinvesting in equipment during a boom → oversupply → price collapse. In fact, since Samsung Electronics has the largest ‘scale’ in the memory industry, the cost of maintaining its invested facilities is enormous, so the company is taking an extremely conservative approach.”

SK Hynix, despite holding a dominant position in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) market, is also proceeding with facility investments as conservatively as possible. In particular, it has been cautious in placing orders for essential equipment such as TC bonders. Some analysts attribute this to Nvidia’s move to diversify its HBM suppliers from the sixth generation (HBM4) onward — adding Samsung Electronics and Micron alongside SK Hynix — but others believe the company is also mindful of the potential risk of HBM oversupply."

---

https://t.co/3hvmj6XgzP


the forecast that the 'memory super cycle' will continue beyond 2028 is gaining traction

Summary: DRAM supply shortage persists until H1 2027+; Samsung and SK Hynix adopt conservative CAPEX/profitability strategies, supporting memory supercycle thesis beyond 2028.

Global DRAM sector basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix

"DRAM Supply Shortage Unlikely to Ease Until H1 2027"

“We will minimize oversupply risks.” (Samsung Electronics)

“It is difficult to resolve the supply shortage until the first half of 2027.” (SK Hynix)

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which dominate approximately 70% of the global DRAM market, recently expressed a cautious stance regarding the possibility of aggressive supply expansion during investor relations meetings for global investment banks (IB). With semiconductor supply shortages spreading from server applications to PC and smartphone products, and considering both companies have announced production strategies centered on ‘profitability,’ the forecast that the ‘memory super cycle’ will continue beyond 2028 is gaining traction.

According to industry sources on the 1st, Samsung Electronics unveiled a conservative semiconductor supply strategy at an Investor Relations (IR) event hosted by Morgan Stanley on the 23rd of last month. Samsung explained, “We will employ a strategy of maintaining long-term profitability rather than rapidly increasing facilities,” adding, “We will minimize oversupply risks through a Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) strategy that finds a balance between customer demand and price.”

It is reported that Samsung Electronics’ Memory Business Division is currently able to supply only about 70% of its DRAM orders. As the supply shortage intensifies, the division has reportedly refused requests for long-term mobile DRAM supply contracts from major clients. Samsung stated, “While clients want multi-year long-term contracts, Samsung does not want to tie up volumes with specific clients during a phase where prices are surging.”

SK Hynix is in a similar position. At a recent IR event hosted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, SK Hynix stated it would convert about half of its general-purpose DRAM production capacity to the latest 10-nanometer (nm) 6th generation (1c) DRAM. However, the company explained that this is insufficient to meet client demand. A company official explained, “We plan to spend about 30% of our revenue on CAPEX in 2026 and accelerate the transition to 1c DRAM, but it is difficult to resolve the supply shortage situation.”

SK Hynix also anticipates that the upward trend in DRAM prices will continue for several years and is responding with ‘short-term contracts.’ An SK Hynix official explained, “We will lower the burden on clients through a strategy of phased contract price increases.”

---

https://t.co/nuIS5boUkR


Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which dominate approximately 70% of the global DRAM market, recently expressed a cautious stance regarding the possibility of aggressive supply expansion


it is difficult to resolve the supply shortage until the first half of 2027


Doosan may become the sole supplier of CCL for Rubin, Nvidia's new chip scheduled for release next year... sales from Nvidia to exceed 1 trillion won next year... operating profit at Doosan's Electronic BG is projected at 500.9 billion won this year, roughly four times last year's

Summary: Doosan locks in 1T KRW Nvidia CCL sales as sole GB300/Rubin supplier after EMC fails GB300 qualification; EMC structurally displaced from Nvidia AI chip supply chain.

Doosan Electronics CCL supplier context 006280.KS

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

Doosan semiconductor materials, 1 trillion won in Nvidia sales ‘locked in’, EMC fails GB300 qualification

Doosan’s Electronic Business Group (BG), which has been enjoying the AI semiconductor boom thanks to its high-quality copper-clad laminates (CCL), is expected to generate more than 1 trillion won in sales from Nvidia alone next year. This is because Taiwanese EMC, a competitor and the world’s No. 1 CCL maker, recently failed to clear Nvidia’s quality verification for the Blackwell GB300, raising the possibility that Doosan could become the sole supplier of CCL for Rubin, Nvidia’s next-generation AI chip, thereby solidifying its lead.

According to industry sources on the 19th, Taiwanese CCL company EMC recently failed the quality verification for CCL used in the computing tray (GPU connection substrate) for Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell model GB300. The CCL for the GB300 computing tray is a product from Doosan that has already passed Nvidia’s quality verification.

CCL is a product in which both sides of an insulating layer composed of resin and reinforcement materials are bonded to thin copper foil that serves as a conductor. PCB (printed circuit board) manufacturers drill holes into the CCL and, through processes such as electrolytic and electroless plating, add copper layers to the circuitry to create substrates through which electrical signals can travel. In this sense, CCL is effectively the most basic material for semiconductors.

The reason EMC failed to pass GB300 computing tray quality verification is that there is a very high technological entry barrier for high-end CCL used in AI semiconductors. EMC holds a 60% share of the global CCL market and is the No. 1 player. It supplied CCL for Nvidia’s Hopper series launched in 2022 alongside Doosan, but in the supply chain for the next-generation AI semiconductor Blackwell it has been completely pushed out.

There is also talk that Doosan may become the sole supplier of CCL for Rubin, Nvidia’s new chip scheduled for release next year. In effect, the CCL market is split between EMC and Doosan, and EMC has failed to meet even the GB300 quality requirements.

An industry insider said, “At this point, the likelihood that Doosan will supply CCL exclusively in the early stages of Rubin is very high,” adding, “Starting from the third quarter of next year, Doosan is expected to begin exclusive supply, and in the fourth quarter, as chip production scales up, a sharp increase in sales can be expected.”

The industry expects Doosan’s sales from Nvidia to exceed 1 trillion won next year. Doosan is already projected to have generated 660 billion won in sales from Nvidia this year, up from 100 billion won in the fourth quarter of last year, and there is analysis that this could grow a further 70% to reach 1.15 trillion won next year.

Doosan is enjoying an unprecedented boom as it expands supply of high-end CCL. Operating profit at Doosan’s Electronic BG is projected at 500.9 billion won this year, roughly four times last year’s 122.6 billion won. In particular, its operating margin has soared vertically from 12.2% to 27.4%. Next year as well, Doosan Electronic BG is expected to continue its growth, recording 717.5 billion won in operating profit with its profit margin approaching 30%. There are also expectations that Doosan will be able to supply CCL not only for Nvidia but also for custom ASICs ordered by global big tech companies such as Amazon and Google.

Doosan’s CCL plants are running in “full operation” mode, fueling the company’s sales growth. According to Doosan’s quarterly report, the utilization rates at the Electronic BG’s Jeungpyeong and Gimcheon plants are 130.4% and 125.2%, respectively, exceeding 100%. At both plants, utilization has continued to rise every quarter this year. As of the third quarter, Doosan has invested 60.3 billion won in expanding its CCL facilities, more than a 50% increase from last year.

---

https://t.co/kvuZR8vvFk


Taiwanese EMC, a competitor and the world's No. 1 CCL maker, recently failed to clear Nvidia's quality verification for the Blackwell GB300... in the supply chain for the next-generation AI semiconductor Blackwell it has been completely pushed out

CCL context: EMC = Elite Material Co. 2383.TW not US EMC


Summary: Micron CBO flags deepening DRAM shortage through 2026, HBM supply tight, 40–47% revenue growth guided; relayed bullish thesis adopted by sharing.

Micron Technology Chief Business Officer (CBO) Sumit Sadana: The shortage in the DRAM market will deepen through 2026, and the supply-demand imbalance will remain extremely tight.

According to Nikkei Asia, Sadana noted that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI applications requires about three times the wafer input compared to standard DRAM.

Despite Micron allocating significant production capacity to HBM products, clear supply constraints have emerged as new fabs take a long time to become operational and costs continue to rise. Micron’s HBM sales reached approximately USD 2 billion in the second quarter of 2025 (June–August), and the company expects revenue for the third quarter of 2025 (September–November) to grow by 40–47% year over year, driven mainly by HBM demand.

HBM4 sampling begins — preparation for 2026 commercialization

Sadana said that HBM supply contracts are expected to be finalized within a few months ahead of 2026. Micron has already started sampling its next-generation HBM4 product, and while shipment volumes will likely remain limited in 2026, he mentioned that it offers lower power consumption than competitors’ products.

Regarding the recent increase in DDR4 DRAM prices, Micron is struggling to fully meet demand due to limited production capacity. Sadana stated that while the company plans to gradually phase out DDR4 production, it will extend the production period to support key long-term customers through its U.S. fabs. However, he added that overall capacity may still fall short of market demand.

$MU


The firm maintains Overweight ratings on SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, expecting rising memory prices to push share prices to new highs and for memory makers' profits to significantly beat expectations.

Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley Overweight on SK Hynix and Samsung; AI-driven memory super cycle to push prices and profits well above historical peaks and consensus.

Morgan Stanley: This memory “super cycle” will far surpass the historical peak

Morgan Stanley pointed out that a new memory “super cycle” driven by AI has already arrived, and its intensity and logic are completely different from any previous cycle.

Morgan Stanley stated that, unlike in the past, this cycle is led by AI data centers and cloud service providers, whose customers have low price sensitivity, and inference workloads have become the main driver of general-purpose memory demand. Meanwhile, the latest channel checks indicate that in Q4, server DRAM contract prices have surged by nearly 70%, NAND contract prices are up 20–30%, and suppliers hold unprecedented pricing power.

The firm maintains Overweight ratings on SK hynix and Samsung Electronics, expecting rising memory prices to push share prices to new highs and for memory makers’ profits to significantly beat expectations.

Morgan Stanley noted that the core drivers of this cycle have changed in quality. The buyers are no longer traditional customers sensitive to price, but AI data centers and cloud-service giants engaged in an arms race to build compute infrastructure.

For them, securing memory is a strategic “must-have,” and price sensitivity has fallen to the lowest level. At the same time, HBM (high-bandwidth memory) production continues to structurally cannibalize traditional DRAM capacity. As Morgan Stanley emphasized in the report:

“The peculiar point is as follows: today’s memory demand has evolved into a competition led by AI data centers (compute-intensive platforms) and cloud service providers, and they are not as price-sensitive as traditional customers… The exponential upward trend in inference demand provides a solid foundation for this, and this is what makes this cycle fundamentally different from any previous one.”

According to Morgan Stanley’s latest channel checks, the DRAM price outlook turned sharply bullish in just two weeks. Q4 server RDIMM contract prices jumped about 70%, far surpassing the previous 30% expectation. The DDR5 (16Gb) spot price soared 336%, from $7.50 in September to $20.90 now. DDR4 prices also saw a 50% increase in offer levels. Most contract transactions will not be finalized until the end of this month, but customer acceptance seems inevitable—because they fear further price hikes and supply constraints.

Furthermore, NAND has fallen into a severe shortage:

NAND has become a key component of AI compute infrastructure and video storage. Prices of 3D NAND wafers (TLC and QLC) are expected to rise 65–70% quarter-over-quarter to respond to capacity constraints. Nearline storage specifications are shifting from 128TB to 256TB QLC SSDs. TrendForce forecasts that enterprise SSD bit-based server demand in 2026 will increase by about 50% year-over-year. Samsung’s bit production in the first half of 2025 was constrained by the transition from V6 176-layer to 321-layer V8 NAND, and in the second half it will ramp only gradually, resulting in this year’s bit shipment growth rate being limited to 10%.

There is still ample room for price increases, and the cycle is not at its peak yet
The market is often constrained by “peak fear,” assuming that once stock prices hit new highs a reversal will soon follow. However, Morgan Stanley emphasizes that in this AI-led market, the ultimate determinant is earnings growth, not historical valuation:

Currently, server DRAM prices are $1/Gb, whereas the peak of the cloud super cycle in Q1 2018 was $1.25/Gb. Given the scale of AI infrastructure investment and the dynamic nature of hyperscale customers, the peak price of this cycle is highly likely to surpass the previous high. Memory cycles typically last 4–6 quarters, and profits are in the process of being realized. The key, however, is comparison with market expectations—the market is showing noticeably greater enthusiasm for general-purpose memory prices. Valuation is not a predictor of future returns; it reflects supply and demand, not historical precedents.

Based on the strong long-term drivers of AI, memory price increases have already entered “no-man’s-land,” and earnings prospects far exceed the market’s general expectations. This implies there is still enormous upside potential in stock prices.

“As AI-related capital expenditures continue to expand, the share of memory in total spending is likely to keep rising—this will support P/B to far exceed historical peaks. In our view, this is a story where multiple expansion is layered on top of cyclical earnings recovery…

We believe analysts’ data revisions are always lagging—for SK hynix and Samsung, our 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts are 31~48% and 38~51% higher than market consensus, respectively.”

In sum, the drivers of this memory “super cycle” are more durable, the magnitude of price increases has surpassed historical records, and earnings prospects are higher still. Coupled with a strong cycle, this creates a rare investment opportunity for memory manufacturers that hold pricing power.


Western semiconductor equipment companies

Summary: Bearish Western semis/equipment: China's domestic EUV timeline is now concrete, warranting valuation discounts and share price pressure.

Western semicon equipment basket: AMAT, Lam, KLA, ASML, Onto

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

I want to argue that we now have a visible, concrete timeline for China’s EUV.

Of course, Western companies won’t collapse overnight.

But we’re playing a massive chess game here, right? I think it’s time we start treating China’s domestic EUV as a serious risk factor.

In other words, I believe valuation discounts and downside share price pressure could begin to apply to Western semiconductor-related companies.

@jukan05 Don’t be confused. They haven’t figured it out.


Morgan Stanley maintains NVIDIA as its top pick in the AI semiconductor sector. Reiterated an Overweight (OW) rating.

Summary: Morgan Stanley reiterates NVDA Overweight as top AI semiconductor pick; durable competitive moat, above-consensus growth expected for several years.

NVIDIA NDR Commentary: Broad Prospects for AI Infrastructure, Competitive Dynamics Remain Strong

Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, Oct 11, 2025)

Morgan Stanley stated that at its investor meeting in Boston, NVIDIA emphasized that its AI growth is still in the early stages, particularly that agentic AI applications in enterprise and industrial scenarios remain in the “embryonic phase.” Management presented strong arguments supporting the durability of NVIDIA’s competitive position and reiterated an Overweight (OW) rating.

Management noted that current AI demand growth is mainly driven by the migration of cloud computing CapEx from CPUs to GPUs, and there remains substantial room for further expansion. CEO Jensen Huang stated that most of the current growth stems from increasing NVIDIA’s revenue share within existing cloud CapEx (which is growing about 30–40%), while AI applications that could fundamentally reshape the labor market (such as enterprise- and industry-level AI) have yet to fully arrive.

In terms of AI and LLMs, hyperscalers are simultaneously supporting both third-party and self-developed model training. These foundational models will form the core of many future business models. Management highlighted that AI models are evolving from the “pre-training” phase to the “post-training” phase, shifting focus from knowledge accumulation to reasoning and action capabilities. This evolution has two key effects: (1) inference models’ token-intensive nature significantly increases compute demand, and (2) higher-performance models will generate more high-value applications. NVIDIA believes this evolution will trigger a structural transformation of the global labor market—AI will gradually replace traditional human labor. Following programming, healthcare, law, and industrial automation will become the next key application areas, and robotics will drive AI into the physical world.

The company projects that by 2030, the AI infrastructure market will reach $3–5 trillion, higher than most market assumptions. On the supply side, NVIDIA believes that wafer capacity is no longer the main bottleneck—manufacturing and packaging have already seen substantial expansion. The current constraints lie in data center space, power availability, and supporting infrastructure.

On financing and partnerships, the company emphasized that its role is that of an “accelerator,” not a “financier.” NVIDIA invests in companies such as CoreWeave and in projects with the UK and London sovereign funds to accelerate data center construction and innovation. This model will expand to include more partners in the future. Regarding OpenAI’s recent 10GW data center build-out target, NVIDIA views it as incremental upside but cautions against interpreting that figure too literally, advising investors to remain prudent when evaluating similar numbers announced by competitors.

On architectural strategy, NVIDIA reiterated that scale-up remains based on copper interconnects, scale-out will evolve toward co-packaged optics, and scale-across/DCI will continue to use optical modules. The company emphasized that its full-stack architecture and GPU flexibility constitute its long-term moat.

Regarding AMD competition, management noted that AMD’s collaboration with OpenAI is primarily advanced through cloud service providers, whereas NVIDIA directly signs agreements with non-cloud data centers and invests equity on a per-GW basis. AMD provides warrants to OpenAI as an incentive, but this does not directly drive CSP investment. NVIDIA argued that it remains uncertain whether CSPs would commit tens of billions of dollars to chips that are not yet mass-produced or performance-verified.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that the market’s three major concerns about NVIDIA are:

1. Whether long-term projections are becoming bubble-like,

2. Circular financing risks, and

3. Rising competitor confidence.

The company responded that although some three-year agreements with customers may include aggressive assumptions, even partial realization would be sufficient to sustain above-consensus growth for the next several years. Current spending is primarily driven by workload migration from CPUs to GPUs, not by speculative expectations. As for financing, most co-investment projects will materialize gradually after 2026, likely driving a positive inflection in 2027 performance.

On the competitive landscape, Morgan Stanley noted that whenever replacement competitors reach peak market hype, it usually takes another 12 months before any real productization. Historically, AMD, Intel, and ASIC vendors have all gone through similar cycles. NVIDIA continues to maintain a strong market share, and the company expects its XPU market share in 2026 to remain at the high-80% range, while still being undervalued relative to peers.

Morgan Stanley maintains NVIDIA as its top pick in the AI semiconductor sector.

$NVDA


Samsung will catch up faster than the market expects. Samsung is still cheap.

Summary: Long Samsung on cheap valuation + faster-than-expected share recovery; SK Hynix maintains leadership but faces market-share pessimism headwind.

I believe SK hynix will continue to maintain its leadership, but Samsung will catch up faster than the market expects.

While the leader suffers from pessimism about losing market share, optimism and expectations of gaining share tend to surround the second place.

Samsung is still cheap.


SK hynix will continue to maintain its leadership


Summary: Bullish TSMC despite geopolitical discount; calls it worth buying at current valuation.

@0kotatsu Naturally, it’s because Taiwan continues to suffer from a geopolitical discount due to the risk of a Chinese invasion.
Whenever China conducts even a minor military drill near Taiwan, foreign investors immediately panic.

I still think TSMC is a stock worth buying.

@jukan05 In your opinion why does TSMC trade at such a low valuation compared to ASML?

And what is your thoughts on TSMC current valuation? (Sub 24PE on TW exchange)


Summary: Bernstein bullish NVDA (demand scarcity, upward revenue bias) and AVGO (Street AI estimates far too low); incrementally bearish AMD as TPU viability threatens its GPU second-source thesis.

Bernstein’s comments on Google’s TPUs:

The success of Google’s TPUs is not new.
In fact they are the only really successful ASIC program in our opinion (certainly the only one that has truly reached scale). This should not be surprising; Google (partnered with AVGO) has been making these chips across numerous generations for well over 10 years. And they have been trying to push TPUs to more external customers for a while, most notably with Fluidstack earlier this year (though they also offered a multi-billion dollar backstop for the effort too). Meta would clearly be a greater coup though.

GPUs are clearly not going anywhere though…
Right now the overarching theme is of compute scarcity, and if anything this feels like an effort to secure more. We note others like OpenAI are taking a similar diversified approach, something that has not slowed NVDA down in the slightest given the state of compute demand with the company recently indicating hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue visibility going forward (with numbers that likely continue to have a solid upward bias) and a roadmap that suggests even more to come.

To that end, we still think the question of “ASIC or GPU” kind of misses the point.
Right now the real question should really be “is the opportunity in front of us still big, or is it not?” as (hopefully!) we are not yet in a mature, saturated market for AI hardware. In other words, it’s still the size of the pie that matters; if it’s big both GPU and ASIC should thrive (and if it’s not, they’re both in trouble).

AVGO would be a clear winner here as they are (of course) Google’s ASIC partner of choice, though we note they have also been working with Meta on their own ASICs (so we don’t know how much of any TPU usage might be incremental). AVGO’s stock has of course been on fire lately as the ASIC narrative has taken off, and while the stock is growing more expensive perhaps it is justified as we continue to believe that Street estimates look far too low ($40B in AI revenue in FY26, ~$63B in 27, numbers that have barely moved even after the OpenAI announcement).

If anything the news feels incrementally negative to the AMD narrative as the company has built their story around becoming the viable second source to NVDA, and hitched their wagon to OpenAI’s horse. In a world where Gemini hypothetically dominates over ChatGPT, and TPUs prove to be viable second sources for a broader swath of AI customers, will investors still be as eager to underwrite AMD’s targets out to 2030?


we continue to believe that Street estimates look far too low ($40B in AI revenue in FY26, ~$63B in 27, numbers that have barely moved even after the OpenAI announcement)


the news feels incrementally negative to the AMD narrative as the company has built their story around becoming the viable second source to NVDA, and hitched their wagon to OpenAI's horse


I think it'll keep rising until the second quarter of 2026.

Summary: Long SNDK; expects it to keep rising until Q2 2026.

@Tientientien121 I take a long-term view.
I think it’ll keep rising until the second quarter of 2026.

@jukan05 One more question,  Could you share your views on the stock $SNDK?
What price levels do you expect in the short term and the long term?
In other words, how high do you think it could go?
Thanks a lot.


TSMC's fab capacity has become so constrained that the costs are expected to rise at least twofold for those who need to pay for wafer production

Summary: Bullish TSMC: severe fab capacity constraints expected to drive wafer costs up at least 2x, boosting pricing power.

It’s highly interesting — TSMC’s fab capacity has become so constrained that the costs are expected to rise at least twofold for those who need to pay for wafer production. https://t.co/vZBfrNKQrY

A semiconductor consultant working with hyperscalers shares some interesting insights on the current $NVDA/ASIC buildout:

1. He thinks that some smaller data center deals might start hitting some headwinds because there is backlash starting in some areas from residents because https://t.co/2Tul6thyzs


Samsung's turnaround momentum is expected to accelerate... Industry watchers expect further improvement in the fourth quarter as Exynos 2600 shipments ramp up

Summary: Bullish Samsung: Exynos 2600 return to flagship lineup improves Foundry/System LSI losses, reduces AP procurement costs, with momentum accelerating into Q4 and beyond.

[Exclusive] Galaxy S26 confirmed to feature ‘Exynos 2600’—six times faster than Apple’s chip

The upcoming Galaxy S26 series, set for release early next year, will be equipped with Samsung’s in-house application processor (AP), the Exynos 2600. It is reported that not only the base and Plus models but also the flagship ‘Ultra’ model will likely adopt the chip. This marks the first time in four years—since 2022—that Samsung has used its own Exynos AP in a flagship model.

According to industry sources on the 20th, Samsung Electronics has decided to use the Exynos 2600 in the Galaxy S26 and has begun mass production. The company has traditionally employed a dual-sourcing strategy, using both Qualcomm and Exynos chipsets. The Exynos share in the S26 lineup is reportedly around 50%, with Qualcomm chips used in the U.S., Japan, and China, while Exynos chips power the Korean and European models.

From the Galaxy S1 in 2010 through the S6 in 2015, Samsung equipped most of its phones with Exynos chips. However, starting in 2016, it sharply increased Qualcomm’s share, switching to a mixed approach. The S23 (2023) and S25 (2025) series—except for lower-end and foldable models—did not use Exynos at all.

The AP serves as the “brain” of a smartphone. Analysts say Exynos’s return to the Galaxy S lineup reflects improvements in both performance and foundry yield (the ratio of good chips). While Apple and Qualcomm rely on TSMC’s foundries, Exynos chips are manufactured by Samsung Foundry.

The expansion of Exynos adoption is expected to improve the financial performance of Samsung’s Foundry and System LSI divisions, which have been struggling with losses, while also reducing semiconductor procurement costs for its smartphone division. Samsung spent ₩7.7899 trillion in the first half of this year and ₩10.9326 trillion last year on mobile AP purchases.

“Its performance no longer lags behind Apple’s latest A19 Pro chipset.”

Samsung’s decision to reintroduce its in-house AP into the Galaxy S series stems from major performance enhancements, which reportedly rival or exceed competitors.

According to internal testing results revealed by industry sources on the 20th, the Exynos 2600’s NPU (neural processing unit) performance is more than six times higher than that of Apple’s A19 Pro chipset. Its CPU multi-core performance is 14% higher, and GPU performance up to 75% better.

When compared to Qualcomm’s latest Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 Elite chipset, Exynos 2600 shows about 30% higher NPU performance and up to 29% higher GPU performance. The AP, which functions as the smartphone’s central brain, contains CPU, GPU, and NPU units responsible for AI computation, video processing, and overall system control.

The Exynos 2600 is produced using Samsung Foundry’s latest 2-nanometer (nm) process technology. To achieve the performance boost, the System LSI division reportedly took the drastic step of redesigning the chip’s architecture. For the North American market, Samsung is expected to continue using Qualcomm chips to ensure smooth local regulatory approvals.

Samsung is said to have focused heavily on AI performance during Exynos 2600’s development—positioning AI as its weapon to surpass Apple. While Samsung launched the world’s first “AI phone” (Galaxy S24) in January 2024, Apple has struggled to fully implement AI capabilities in the iPhone.

With its AI semiconductors—including HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), DRAM, and now system semiconductors—entering a recovery phase, Samsung’s turnaround momentum is expected to accelerate. Although the Foundry and System LSI divisions each recorded losses of around ₩2 trillion in the first half of this year, those losses reportedly narrowed to the ₩1 trillion range in Q3.

Industry watchers expect further improvement in the fourth quarter as Exynos 2600 shipments ramp up. The smartphone division’s profitability will also benefit, given reduced spending on Qualcomm chipsets—Samsung spent ₩10.9326 trillion last year on AP purchases.

The company’s business outlook beyond next year appears even brighter. As early as 2026, Samsung will begin producing Tesla’s autonomous driving chip (AI6) and Apple’s image sensors. In July, Samsung signed a $16.5 billion (₩22.8 trillion) semiconductor supply contract with Tesla, and in August, it agreed to supply image sensors for the iPhone.

---

https://t.co/9rJY61p47O


Summary: Picks Infineon and MediaTek as buys for semi exposure to industrial and mobile end markets.

Guys, it would be a good time to buy semi stocks with industrial and mobile semiconductors exposure. Source: A semiconductor industry leader who talks to customers on daily basis.


MTK = MediaTek 2454.TW Taiwan; context mentions Infineon MTK


Summary: DRAM shortage deepening with inventory at 2.7 weeks vs 8-week healthy level; supply-demand imbalance projected to persist 2+ years, bullish for SK Hynix and Samsung.

Global DRAM basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix

Memory Shortage to Worsen … DRAM Inventory Period Shortens from 3.3 Weeks to 2.7 Weeks

The semiconductor super-boom driven by investments in artificial intelligence (AI) is deepening the memory shortage.

According to market research firm TrendForce on the 23rd, the average global DRAM inventory at the beginning of the fourth quarter stood at 2.7 weeks. This means that once produced, products are sold out in roughly 19 days, a further decrease compared to the third quarter (3.3 weeks).

By company, SK Hynix’s average inventory was only 2 weeks, and Samsung Electronics’ was 4 weeks. In terms of the decline, Samsung’s inventory fell by as much as 2 weeks from an average of 6 weeks.

Given that the industry views a healthy inventory level as around 8 weeks, this means products are selling so briskly that inventory does not even reach half of normal levels. This appears to be due to a combination of growing AI server replacement demand from global big tech companies and disrupted product supply caused by sanctions against China.

A semiconductor industry official said, “Purchasing companies are practically offering higher prices almost every day,” adding, “Meanwhile, semiconductor manufacturers are conservatively managing their production capacity, so the shortage could intensify further.”

Kim Dong-won, a researcher at KB Securities, projected, “The supply-demand imbalance in DRAM could continue for at least the next two years.”

---

https://t.co/Vg40LiarSC


SK Hynix's average inventory was only 2 weeks


Samsung Electronics' was 4 weeks ... Samsung's inventory fell by as much as 2 weeks from an average of 6 weeks


Summary: Bullish Samsung: 2026 HBM production already fully sold out with additional demand still coming in.

@rwang07 Bro, what do you mean Samsung didn’t declare that next year’s HBM is sold out?

Listen to the conference call again — they clearly said everything’s already sold.

https://t.co/Kh6EfVkz13

---

Regarding next year’s HBM sales outlook, Samsung stated:
내년 HBM 판매 전망 관련, 2026년 HBM 비트 생산계획은 올해 대비 매우 대폭 확대 수립했으나, 해당 계획분에 대한 고객 수요를 이미 확보한 상태다. 다만 추가적인 고객 수요가 지속 접수되고 있어, 당사는 HBM 증산 가능성을 내부 검토 중이다.

“The 2026 HBM bit production plan has been set at a significantly higher level compared to this year, and we have already secured customer demand for that planned volume. However, as additional customer requests continue to come in, we are internally reviewing the possibility of further HBM capacity expansion.”

This means that Samsung has already sold out all the HBM volumes it planned to produce.


CFO Conference Call Suggests Strong AI Supply Expansion Visibility, Maintains 'Buy' Rating

Summary: BofA reiterates Buy on AMD after CFO call; OpenAI 6GW deal ($15–20B/GW) incremental to existing outlook, with operating margin expansion to mid-30s.

BofA) AMD CFO Conference Call: Positive on OpenAI Deal, Opens Opportunity for Market Share Expansion

CFO Conference Call Suggests Strong AI Supply Expansion Visibility, Maintains ‘Buy’ Rating

This morning, we hosted a conference call with AMD’s Chief Financial Officer (CFO) Jean Hu and Vice President of Financial Strategy and Investor Relations (IR) Matthew Ramsay, attended by many investors. The key points are as follows:

1. OpenAI’s first 1GW buildout will be shipped in the second half of 2026 using the MI450 series racks, with most deliveries concentrated in Q4.

2. AMD’s supply contribution will initially include GPU, CPU, and DPU components, valued at approximately $15–20 billion per GW (including <5% impact from warrant-related revenue deductions).

3. The total value of AMD’s contribution may increase over time, supported by higher average selling prices (ASP) and potential inclusion of networking components.

4. AMD will supply products to cloud service providers (CSPs) for the buildout and invoice them accordingly; this deal could lead to further AMD-based system deployments by CSPs.

5. OpenAI is financially incentivized to complete the full 6GW buildout before the warrant expiry in October 2030.

6. This transaction and opportunity are incremental to what AMD has already announced.

7. The choice and combination of accelerators (NVIDIA vs. AMD vs. Broadcom) are determined by the total cost of ownership (TCO) for each workload.

8. UALink is based on what AMD has developed over five to six generations with Infinity Fabric, representing a proven concept.

⸻

Initial Supply per GW: $15–20 Billion, with Potential for Expansion

According to AMD, its supply contribution to OpenAI’s rack-level solution will initially include AMD-based GPUs, CPUs, and DPUs. The net value (excluding warrant-related deductions) amounts to $15–20 billion per GW, with the warrant effect being less than 5%. As next-generation GPUs deliver significantly higher token generation per dollar with only minimal increases in power consumption, the total value could increase due to ASP expansion. This aligns with our previous assumption of $17.5 billion per GW, based on a GPU ASP of over $40,000 (see Figure 1).
AMD also noted that NVIDIA’s $35 billion per GW opportunity appears higher primarily because it includes roughly 30% additional elements—such as networking, cabling, power supply units, and OEM margins.

⸻

GPU Margins Slightly Dilutive to GM but Accretive to OpM

AMD indicated that its data center GPU products still slightly lag the company-wide gross margin average, as the firm continues prioritizing market share expansion during the early phase of AI infrastructure buildouts. However, AMD’s overall data center portfolio—covering CPU, DPU, and GPU silicon—significantly contributes to overall gross margin.
That said, since GPUs include high-cost HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) components in their bill of materials (BOM), there remains limited room to expand margins on that portion, making it a continued drag on gross margin.
AMD expects limited incremental operating expenses (opex) associated with GPU supply expansion, which should help it reach its long-term operating margin target in the mid-30% range (currently mid-20%). Separately, AMD confirmed that no separate HBM purchases are expected during the 6GW project period.

Warrant Conditions = OpenAI Buildout + AMD Stock Price

The two fundamental milestones for warrant vesting are:

1. OpenAI’s capacity purchases and actual buildout per GW, and

2. AMD’s share price performance.

To satisfy the first condition, AMD and OpenAI will work together to deploy AMD-based rack solutions across multiple CSPs (selected by OpenAI), potentially unlocking further opportunities for both first-party and third-party AMD cluster buildouts in the future.
For the second condition, each warrant tranche requires AMD’s stock to reach progressively higher price targets, with the final tranche set at $600 per share. The warrant expires on October 5, 2030, thereby incentivizing OpenAI to complete the full 6GW buildout before that date in order to receive the entire 10% warrant allocation.

$AMD


Micron's HBM4 delayed to 2027 due to redesign

Summary: Bearish MU: HBM4 delayed to 2027 due to redesign, author reacts with mockery implying negative view.

LMAO

Micron’s HBM4 delayed to 2027 due to redesign.

$MU https://t.co/ZztYk9QiA7

---

@insane_analyst


Summary: Bullish Samsung: projected to hold memory market No.1 in Q4 on commodity DRAM/NAND momentum and upcoming HBM3E/HBM4 ramp.

Samsung regains the throne in the memory market, overtaking SK Hynix to reclaim the No. 1 spot

In the third quarter of 2025, Samsung Electronics recorded $19.4 billion in memory sales, surpassing SK Hynix (which posted $17.5 billion) to reclaim the top position in the global memory market.

Samsung’s recovery was driven by strong demand for commodity DRAM and NAND. Although its HBM business underperformed earlier this year, it is expected to enter a full-fledged growth phase starting next year, supported by HBM3E and HBM4.

With continued momentum in both commodity DRAM and HBM, Samsung is projected to maintain its No. 1 position in the memory market in the fourth quarter as well.

---

https://t.co/LAiSLP1C6v


Summary: Endorses bullish NVDA thesis; Jensen's strategy to close cost gap vs ASICs strengthens competitive moat.

Why didn’t I think of this sooner…

“The core of this vision is to eliminate the margin stacking by server ODMs (original design manufacturers) and CSPs (cloud service providers), narrowing the cost gap between NVIDIA chips and ASICs to around 15% on average.”

Jensen Huang is doing whatever it takes to eliminate his competitors.

Cantor Fitzgerald) NVIDIA: Raises Target Price to $300 Amid Accelerating AI Infrastructure Growth

“Last week, we hosted an investor meeting in New York with NVIDIA’s senior management, including CEO Jensen Huang, CFO Colette Kress, IR head Toshiya Hari, and other executives.


Summary: Shares/endorses $338 price target on MU.


I've been waiting for SanDisk to pull back. I think it's a bit too expensive to buy right now. But… the correction just isn't coming.

Summary: Wants to buy SNDK on NAND shortage thesis but finds it too expensive; implicitly bullish, waiting for a pullback that isn't arriving.

NAND supply is expected to enter a shortage starting in Q4 2025.

I’ve been waiting for SanDisk to pull back.

I think it’s a bit too expensive to buy right now.

But… the correction just isn’t coming.🥲

$SNDK


Summary: Positive/bullish on ASE for OSAT demand tailwinds; prefers ASE over AMKR on advanced packaging exposure.

ASE Technology Holding US ADR ticker ASX

@MrThomG_ AMKR is still far from being able to handle CoWoS-level packaging.
Right now, AMKR is only handling H20 and GB10-class products.
I have a positive view on ASE.

@Jukanlosreve What abt OSAT demand tailwinds from Stargate or chap fab in the U.S. altogether?


Samsung Electronics' projected annual operating profit for next year was revised up from 76.6544 trillion won a month ago to 85.4387 trillion won

Summary: Shares bullish HBM3E supply/price dynamics driving upward earnings revisions for Samsung and SK Hynix into 2025.

“Next year’s HBM3E market will get even bigger”… Samsung Electronics and SK hynix raise prices in succession

As NVIDIA is reportedly set to ramp up exports to China of its AI chip H200, which is equipped with 5th-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) ‘HBM3E,’ memory semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are said to have raised their HBM3E supply prices for next year. This is because order volumes are surging not only from NVIDIA but also from companies such as Google and Amazon that design their own AI accelerators. It is also understood that the price hike was influenced by the fact that memory chipmakers are focusing their efforts on expanding production capacity for 6th-generation HBM (HBM4), for which demand is expected to spike next year, leaving them with insufficient room to respond to HBM3E.

According to the industry on the 24th, memory semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are reportedly raising HBM3E supply prices by close to 20%. Analysts say this is unusual given that prices typically fall ahead of the launch of next-generation HBM. The prevailing view is that the impact stems from upward adjustments in next year’s HBM3E order volumes by NVIDIA—formerly the largest customer for HBM3E—as well as by Google and Amazon, which design their own AI accelerators.

An industry source said, “This year, HBM3E established itself as the core product in the HBM market, but it had been expected that prices would ease somewhat next year as the HBM4 market takes off,” adding, “However, global big-tech companies other than NVIDIA are set to launch AI accelerators equipped with HBM3E next year, so demand for HBM3E is continuing to grow. From the perspective of memory chipmakers, they cannot forgo expanding HBM4 production capacity, so supply has failed to keep up with demand, resulting in a price premium of around 20%.”

HBM3E demand is believed to have expanded more than expected as exports to China of NVIDIA’s AI chip H200 were permitted. Each H200 is equipped with six HBM3E units. Reuters reported on the 22nd (local time) that “NVIDIA plans to fulfill initial orders with existing inventory, and shipments are expected to total 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules (about 40,000 to 80,000 H200 units),” adding that “NVIDIA informed Chinese customers of plans to expand new production capacity for the chip and will begin taking related new orders from the second quarter of next year.”

Global big-tech companies such as Google and Amazon are also in need of HBM3E. This is because Google’s TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) and Amazon’s Trainium, both equipped with HBM3E, are set to begin shipping next year. For both products, the amount of HBM installed increases by nearly 20% to 30% versus the previous generation. Google’s 7th-generation TPU is said to include eight HBM3E units per device, while Amazon’s Trainium3 is said to include four HBM3E units.

As Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are expected to focus on producing HBM4, the next-generation product, demand for HBM3E is exceeding supply. KB Securities analyst Kim Dong-won said, “Next year, the revenue mix in the HBM market is projected at 55% for HBM4 and 45% for HBM3E, and from the third quarter of next year HBM4 is expected to rapidly absorb HBM3E demand.”

Amid the surge in HBM demand and rising prices for key products such as DRAM, expectations for next year’s earnings for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are also rising. According to the financial information provider FnGuide, Samsung Electronics’ projected annual operating profit for next year was revised up from 76.6544 trillion won a month ago to 85.4387 trillion won, while SK hynix’s operating profit over the same period was revised up from 71.4037 trillion won to 76.1434 trillion won.

---

https://t.co/ZL63h7zT5Z


SK hynix's operating profit over the same period was revised up from 71.4037 trillion won to 76.1434 trillion won


Summary: Reiterates buy recommendation on all memory stocks including Micron.

Memory stocks basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

I was Googling my X header “jukan05,” and I saw someone saying I’m an MU hater.

That’s a bit disappointing — I still recommend buying all memory stocks, Micron included.

Let me state once again that I am not a Micron hater. https://t.co/24rdsr1CEK


Bernstein expects NVIDIA's AI server power-component TAM to exceed USD 8 billion in 2027, doubling from USD 4 billion in 2025

Summary: Shares Bernstein analysis projecting NVDA AI server power-component TAM doubling to $8B+ by 2027, implying sustained growth.

Bernstein: NVIDIA power component value

According to Bernstein, for Rubin AI cabinets, the power-component TAM needs to be an integer multiple of that of the GB200/GB300 series; from the GB200 series to the Vera Rubin series (including GB300, VR200, and VR Ultra), the power components will undergo multiple rounds of upgrades as products iterate, and the upgrade paths and key drivers differ across models.

Specifically, within the GB300 series, represented by the GB300 NV72, the share of power components increases by about 15% versus GB200, driven by higher BBU adoption; at the same time, because the GB300 has higher load dynamics, adoption of components such as capacitors will increase to mitigate AC grid interference, while the PSU share remains unchanged, as the GB200 cabinet itself has ample power redundancy (single-cabinet design supply capacity of 198 kW, total rated power of 130 kW).

The power-component upgrade is more significant for the VR200 series, where the share of power components in the power rack/power cabinet is expected to reach 2–3× that of the GB200 NV72 series. The core reason is that GPU TDP (thermal design power) rises from 1.2 kW for B200 to 1.8–2.3 kW for R200, driving the single-cabinet design supply capacity from 198 kW to 288 kW/330 kW; the PSU and BBU shares increase accordingly, and this series of power-cabinet form-factor products will adopt BBUs across the board.

The VR Ultra series (i.e., the Kyber cabinet equipped with the NV576 platform) relies on 800 V HVDC technology, with the power-component share expected to reach 7–8× that of GB200. On one hand, its GPU-cabinet density increases from 72 to 144 (the number of cores rises from 144 to 576), and GPU TDP is expected to reach 3.6 kW; traditional architectures cannot meet such high-power demand, hence the adoption of 800 V HVDC power cabinets. On the other hand, in addition to PSU and BBU increasing with the rise in single-cabinet design supply capacity, the shares of other power/mechanical components—such as power capacitors, e-Fuse modules, HVDC cooling systems, and enclosures—will also increase substantially.

Bernstein expects NVIDIA’s AI server power-component TAM to exceed USD 8 billion in 2027, doubling from USD 4 billion in 2025.

$NVDA


Summary: Confident NVDA will beat earnings, but doubts it can reverse the broader market's bearish trend.

Jensen Huang, please save this bear market.
You’re our only hope.

(I have no doubt that NVIDIA will deliver an astonishing earnings report, but I’m not sure if that alone can overturn the market’s bearish outlook.) https://t.co/XaJD3CkTp8


not sure if that alone can overturn the market's bearish outlook


Summary: Rebuttal to UBS: AI is a bubble; semis 35% above 200-DMA is overheated; hyperscaler capex concentration in NVIDIA mirrors bubble-era mega-deals.

US semiconductor sector proxied by SMH ETF

My rebuttal to UBS’s claim that “this is not yet a bubble”:

The fallacy of the “reasonable” TAM assumption:

UBS claims that it is “not unreasonable” to assume semiconductor spending will reach 1.3% of global GDP, but that figure is nearly double the current level (0.7%).
This assumption presupposes that AI infrastructure investment represents a structural, permanent upshift, not a one-off boom.

If AI-related capex eventually peaks and slows, doesn’t that undermine the 1.3% premise itself?

Rebuttal to “there is no Mega M&A in this bubble”:

Isn’t the hyperscalers’ collective $100 billion annual capex commitment effectively the “deal of the century” in this cycle?

Instead of acquiring a single company, they are, in effect, buying out an entire supply chain (NVIDIA) — the difference is semantic.

Price momentum:

The fact that semiconductor stocks are trading 35% above their 200-day moving average already reflects an extremely overheated market condition.

It’s only “lower” compared to the 70% seen in 2000, but that doesn’t make it normal by any means.

How big is the current AI bubble? UBS: This bubble is more “reasonable” than the TMT era, and the three peak signals have not yet appeared

UBS believes that although the current U.S. stock market already meets the seven preconditions of a bubble cycle, the “rationality” of the https://t.co/XMG6D49bgJ


they are, in effect, buying out an entire supply chain (NVIDIA) — the difference is semantic


Summary: Bullish Samsung on foundry turnaround: 3nm yield stabilization, Tesla AI5/AI6 wins, and foundry profitability expected by 2026.

Samsung secures Tesla AI5 chip order as 3nm yield gains boost profit outlook

Samsung Electronics has secured the foundry order for Tesla's AI5 chip, following its earlier win of the next-generation AI6 chip contract. Some industry observers believe this reflects the stability of Samsung's 3nm process yield, and note that the company is significantly ramping up the utilization rate of its 3nm production lines in an effort to attract more major customers.

Samsung and TSMC to jointly produce AI5 chip
According to South Korean media outlet Business Post, Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently confirmed during the company's third-quarter 2025 earnings call that both Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will jointly produce the AI5 chip. The AI5 was originally expected to be manufactured solely on TSMC's 3nm node.

Samsung currently produces Tesla's AI4 chips using its 4nm to 7nm processes. In July 2025, Samsung announced it had secured a US$16.5 billion wafer foundry order, which Musk later confirmed was for the next-generation AI6 chip built on Samsung's 2nm technology. Industry analysts believe that adding Samsung to the AI5 chip supply chain reflects Tesla's strategy to reduce costs and manage supply chain risks.

Samsung's 3nm process sees significant improvement
Notably, this collaboration signals significant improvements in Samsung's 3nm process. Between 2024 and early 2025, Samsung struggled to effectively improve the yield of its 3nm process, hindering efforts to secure large customers and putting the company in a challenging position. However, from the second half of 2025 onward, 3nm yields have gradually stabilized. This enabled the successful deployment of its Exynos 2500 mobile application processor (AP) in the Galaxy Z Flip7 foldable phone, marking a key turning point.

With the new 3nm order from Tesla, the market expects Samsung to secure more major customers in the 3nm segment. Qualcomm, Google, and Baidu, which all currently manufacture products on Samsung's 4nm to 7nm nodes, are considered potential candidates for its 3nm process.

Samsung foundry aims for profitability in 2026
Samsung's 3nm process is already ready for mass production, giving it the advantage of contributing to revenue starting in 2026. Samsung's foundry business recorded an operating loss of approximately KRW5 trillion (US$3.48 billion) in 2024 and is expected to see losses of around KRW1 trillion in the third quarter of 2025.

Reports indicate that Samsung plans to begin full-scale mass production of the Exynos 2600 based on its 2nm process in November 2025. Industry observers believe Samsung's foundry business could return to profitability as early as 2026.

With utilization rates rising significantly across 2nm and 3nm lines in 2026, the market predicts that Samsung's foundry business may generate operating profits worth several hundred billion Korean won. Jinman Han, the head of the foundry business, is expected to accelerate the previously projected timeline for returning to profitability from 2027 to 2026, based on the continued influx of orders.

---

https://t.co/Lp0aQcgGGM


ASE: Target price raised to NT$228… Both companies maintain an 'Overweight' rating

Summary: Morgan Stanley raises TPs and reiterates Overweight on ASE and KYEC on OSAT price hike cycle driven by AI demand and capacity constraints.

Chip Inflation Wave Expands — Morgan Stanley Expects OSAT Companies to Raise Prices in 2026, the First Upcycle Since the Pandemic

Morgan Stanley stated that the semiconductor inflation wave, which began with wafer foundries and memory, is now spreading downstream to back-end processes. Chip back-end (OSAT) companies are preparing for the first price hike cycle since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Morgan Stanley warned that the strong demand for AI semiconductors is severely straining packaging and testing capacity, giving back-end companies stronger bargaining power. Taiwan’s leading firms, ASE and KYEC, are expected to lead this price increase.

Analysts predict that due to three key factors, the price of advanced packaging will rise by 5–10% in 2026, marking the first price upcycle since the semiconductor shortage during the pandemic:

1. Surging AI demand — TSMC’s CoWoS capacity shortage is quickly spilling over to ASE’s CoWoS capacity and KYEC’s testing lines.

2. Capacity constraints — ASE and KYEC are rejecting lower-margin products or reallocating capacity from non-AI wire-bonding to AI flip-chip packaging.

3. Material cost inflation — Rising prices of gold, copper, and BT substrates.

Capacity Tightening Driven by AI

Morgan Stanley identified capacity shortage as the core driver of this price hike cycle. As TSMC’s CoWoS capacity remains undersupplied, orders are rapidly flowing to ASE and other OSAT firms.

Currently, ASE’s capacity utilization rate (UTR) in Q3 2025 has reached 90%, effectively indicating a shortage. This situation gives ASE strong leverage in 2026 price negotiations. To meet AI-related demand, ASE is shifting part of its wire-bonding capacity toward higher-margin flip-chip packaging.

Reflecting this positive outlook, Morgan Stanley raised its earnings forecasts and target prices for related companies:
    •    ASE: Target price raised to NT$228
    •    KYEC: Target price raised to NT$218
Both companies maintain an “Overweight” rating.


KYEC: Target price raised to NT$218… Both companies maintain an 'Overweight' rating


We see a high likelihood that NVIDIA and AMD's server SKUs will use Intel 14A

Summary: Shares/endorses GFHK bullish thesis: NVDA and AMD server SKUs likely to adopt Intel 14A, with PTL yields targeting 70% by end-2025.

GFHK: We see a high likelihood that NVIDIA and AMD’s server SKUs will use Intel 14A.

PTL yields reached 60–65% as of November, and the target is 70% by the end of 2025.

$INTC https://t.co/K6pcx7gakr


Summary: NAND majors (Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix) pivoting to high-margin server SSD/AI supply, cutting consumer exposure; persistent price hikes support profitability uplift.

"Name Your Price"... NAND Industry Focuses on 'Maximizing Profitability'... Samsung and SK Hynix Concentrate on Server SSD Production Instead of PC SSDs

The NAND flash industry is showing a changed stance by boldly phasing out low-profit production and aggressively raising prices.

Although NAND, used for data storage, was previously evaluated as facing inevitable market consolidation due to the large number of suppliers, the prevailing sentiment recently is that the players have become "ruthless." This is because they are executing a strategy to maximize profits without increasing production, despite concerns about prolonged supply shortages.

This is a scene not seen in past memory cycles.

According to the industry on the 15th, US memory manufacturer Micron has decided to operate 'Crucial,' its consumer memory brand for Solid State Drives (SSDs), only until the end of next February.

The industry views this suspension of the Crucial brand operations as a symbolic event marking the shift of the memory industry's center of gravity from consumers to enterprises.

Crucial is a brand launched by Micron in 1996 to create an environment where general consumers could upgrade computer performance themselves like professionals. Through this, Micron became the first company to sell memory directly to consumers.

However, Micron has now decided to be the first to withdraw from the consumer market.

Sumit Sadana, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer, stated the reason was "to improve supply and support for key strategic customers such as rapidly growing AI data centers." This implies that core customers are moving from PCs and smartphones to servers.

Micron's decision is consequently interpreted as meaning the memory industry will no longer sell products at bargain prices.

Recently, big tech companies like Google, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are sweeping up memory to build artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. As memory is a 'strategic asset' for the AI war, they appear willing to accept price hikes.

In this situation, the concerns of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are also growing. Since cleanrooms (manufacturing facilities) are limited, they must maximize product production efficiency.

There is high concern in the industry that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix might also reduce the production of consumer products.

A tech YouTuber active overseas recently claimed that Samsung Electronics would soon end production of 'SATA SSDs,' which are relatively low-value-added products. However, Samsung Electronics denied this.

However, with the memory industry operating with a focus on profitability, the observation is that Samsung Electronics could change its supply priorities at any time. SK Hynix is also reportedly concentrating on NAND production for AI data centers instead of PC SSDs, which have high concerns about slowing growth.

As a result, consumer NAND product prices may face continuous upward pressure.

According to the foreign media outlet Business Insider, global PC maker Dell plans to raise the prices of all enterprise laptops by 10-30% starting on the 17th.

An industry insider said, "Due to the unprecedented rise in memory prices, demand for smartphones and PCs may slow down starting from the second half of next year," adding, "Production strategies focused on server customers will likely intensify."

---

https://t.co/1FOcgd92c2


consumer NAND product prices may face continuous upward pressure

Samsung Electronics listed on KOSPI as 005930.KS


SK Hynix is also reportedly concentrating on NAND production for AI data centers instead of PC SSDs


Summary: Shares Morgan Stanley downgrade of DELL from OW to UW, PT cut to $110 on memory-price headwinds to OEM EPS.

Downgraded Dell to UW due to the sharp surge in memory prices, says Morgan Stanley https://t.co/QYhpPJOgei

This is a very important signal.

Morgan Stanley has cut PC OEMs’ price targets across the board due to the sharp rise in memory prices.

They revised their targets as follows, projecting that OEMs’ EPS could face a headwind of up to -16%:

• DELL
o OW → UW, TP $144 → $110.
o https://t.co/8bu5guIU8A


Summary: Shares/endorses bullish SK Hynix PT raise to 840,000 KRW on limited 2026 supply expansion and super-cycle OPM projections.

“Supply expansion in 2026 will be limited.”

“SK Hynix target price raised to 840,000 KRW.”

That’s insane. https://t.co/zVOjeP4hvy

"Consequently, we project OPM for commodity DRAM
and NAND to rise to levels seen during past super-cycle peaks, reaching 60-70% and 30-40%, respectively." https://t.co/I3o3l2ZKG6


Summary: DDR5 spot prices tripling and top-3 DRAM vendors restricting contract supply signal sustained pricing power for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron through 1H 2026.

Exclusive: Samsung delays DDR5 contract pricing to mid-November as spot prices triple

Memory shortages are intensifying as major cloud service providers (CSPs) continue expanding capital expenditures, with AI demand increasingly squeezing supply. Industry sources reveal that Samsung Electronics led the move by halting DDR5 DRAM contract pricing in October, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit. This disruption is expected to delay contract price announcements until mid-November, exacerbating supply constraints. Meanwhile, DRAM spot prices have surged sharply, with DDR5 prices more than doubling since late last month, driving procurement costs to soar.

Samsung stalls contract pricing; stricter supply strategies from top three vendors
Industry insiders note that although a memory contract price increase in the fourth quarter of 2025 was widely anticipated, Samsung's unexpected refusal to provide contract quotes before the end of October has left downstream customers without available stock. This caused DDR5 spot prices to jump 25% within just one week.

Market reports indicate Samsung plans to resume contract price confirmations only by mid-November. SK Hynix and Micron have also withheld contract pricing, signaling a tightening supply strategy among the top three suppliers, who will now offer quotes exclusively to long-term partners.

This shift suggests non-quote periods may become standard, forcing urgent buyers to compete aggressively in the spot market.

DRAM spot prices surge dramatically; DDR5 triples in value
While fourth-quarter contract prices remain unconfirmed, projections suggest DDR5 prices will experience "three consecutive jumps" from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the first half of 2026, with quarterly increases ranging between 30% and 50%. Under this trajectory, DDR5 16Gb chip prices could reach historic highs of near US$30 by early 2026.

Over the past month, DRAM spot prices have skyrocketed across the board. DDR5 16Gb prices soared to US$15.5, up from US$7.68 at September's end—a staggering 102% monthly increase—making it the fastest-rising product line.

DDR4 prices also climbed steadily: DDR4 16Gb modules exceeded US$25, with Taiwanese manufacturers' scarce DDR4 16Gb (1Gx16) units reaching US$27 due to limited availability.

The DDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) variant saw nearly 90% monthly growth, hitting around US$25, second only to the same-spec DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8).

Mainstream DDR4 8Gb modules rose 60% over the month, while DDR3 4Gb prices increased 40%, marking the highest single-month rise since 2025 began.

Flash wafer prices climb amid memory seller's market
Not only have DDR chip prices surged, but flash wafer quotations have also risen significantly. Since September, 512Gb TLC wafers climbed steadily, reaching US$5 by late October. Prices for 1Tb TLC/QLC wafers hit US$6.5-7.2.

Memory industry experts attribute these hikes to extremely tight circulating inventory. Despite restocking needs, suppliers hesitate to buy heavily due to high prices and limited supply, relying mostly on existing stock to maintain production.

With upstream manufacturers restricting fourth-quarter contract pricing mainly to tech giants and leading CSPs, DDR5 supplies are virtually unavailable to general customers, leaving many frustrated as the memory market fully shifts into a seller's market.

Major US CSPs recently raised their capex budgets: Amazon increased its capex from US$118 billion to US$125 billion, with further growth expected in 2026. Google, Meta, and Microsoft have also revised their spending plans upward, boosting investments in AI computing and high-end memory chips. This strong demand is causing structural capacity shifts in the overall supply chain.

According to market data, DRAM contract prices in the fourth quarter of 2025 have already surged 1.7x year-over-year. To maximize profits, manufacturers are shifting capacity toward higher-margin DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products. However, DDR5 supply shortages have exceeded expectations. With Samsung suspending DDR5 contract pricing first, module makers worry about worsening shortages. Yet if they refrain from purchasing, prices risk climbing even higher, creating a dilemma for procurement costs over the next six months.

---

https://t.co/zuAvPuRgTT


SK Hynix and Micron have also withheld contract pricing, signaling a tightening supply strategy among the top three suppliers