I'm skeptical that Qualcomm can stage a meaningful rebound within this year.

Summary: Skeptical QCOM rebounds this year; on-device AI thesis undermined by Apple scaling back WMCM adoption and no DRAM upgrade.

I’m skeptical that Qualcomm can stage a meaningful rebound within this year.

Why did Apple choose to adopt WMCM packaging for the iPhone 18? It was precisely to enable the use of more DRAM for on-device AI.

However, according to recent industry checks, even Apple appears to have walked back full-scale WMCM adoption for the iPhone 18 and decided to use it only in the higher-end lineup. Even in the high-end models that do use WMCM, there appears to be no RAM upgrade versus the previous generation.

If even Apple — the company with the strongest buying power in the industry — is facing this reality, how exactly is Qualcomm supposed to deliver on-device AI?

If Qualcomm can deliver on-device AI without additional mobile DRAM, that would imply it has achieved some extraordinary algorithmic breakthrough that bypasses the memory wall. I’m skeptical of that.

My hottest and most wrong (year to date) take is also probably the only semi stock that Zephyr and I currently disagree on. Since December I’ve been bullish QCOM and he’s been bearish. Of course, he has been hugely right and I have not been - but I really think that’s going to


Summary: Bullish on Yageo and the MLCC supercycle as price hikes signal rising demand cycle ahead.

Taiwan’s Yageo mentioned for the first time on its earnings call that it has raised prices for some MLCC product lines in response to rising raw material cost pressures.

The MLCC supercycle is coming.


Summary: Strike risk at Samsung + structural supply cliff extends DRAM/NAND price peak well beyond Q3, bullish for memory producers into 2027.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

“Samsung Strike Fears Pour Fuel on Already-Burning Prices”… Memory Surge Cycle Set to Run Longer

With a strike at Samsung Electronics’ DS (Semiconductor) Division becoming increasingly likely, observers say the labor action could serve as a second catalyst that further inflames DRAM and NAND flash prices, which are already on a sharp uptrend. Major market research firms have previously forecast that memory contract prices will post their largest-ever quarterly increase in Q2. Analysts warn that the supply-side risk from a strike, coinciding with the cycle’s approach toward peak, could amplify the shock to the market well beyond current expectations.

According to industry sources on the 15th, a scenario is emerging in which strike risk at Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor union delivers a second shock to this year’s memory pricing cycle. Until now, domestic and overseas market research firms and investment banks had projected that DRAM and NAND prices would peak in Q3 before gradually stabilizing from Q4 onward. The breakdown in Samsung’s labor-management negotiations, however, has introduced a new variable.

After Samsung Electronics’ semiconductor union rejected the company’s proposal for additional negotiations the previous day, the situation has effectively moved toward strike action. Samsung’s major semiconductor customers are reportedly already taking pre-emptive steps to mitigate the risk. “Regardless of whether the strike actually happens, the current situation itself is already acting as a psychological driver pushing DRAM and NAND prices higher,” a semiconductor industry source said. “It is making Big Tech firms and PC and smartphone manufacturers — already struggling with memory shortages — even more anxious.”

According to earlier reports from major foreign media, Samsung semiconductor customers including Apple and HP have inquired about the impact of a potential strike, while HBM (high-bandwidth memory) customers are also closely watching for developments. Samsung Electronics has been attempting to reassure key customers by stating that “there will be no supply disruptions,” but some customers remain concerned about production setbacks and further upside in DRAM and NAND prices.

Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, characterized the situation as “pouring fuel on an already-burning market.” The global memory market has entered a “structural supply cliff” phase, in which supply cannot keep up with demand amid an explosion in AI infrastructure spending. A significant portion of DRAM output from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix has been allocated to HBM for AI servers, reducing supply of commodity DRAM and NAND. On top of that, U.S. hyperscalers are now offering large prepayments to secure capacity for AI datacenter buildouts.

According to KB Securities, if 30–40% of union members participate in the strike, the global supply disruption is estimated to reach 3–4% for DRAM and 2–3% for NAND. While these percentages may appear modest in absolute terms, experts argue that under current undersupply conditions, they could act as a decisive catalyst to drive prices sharply higher. Global DRAM inventory currently stands at only 4–6 weeks of demand.

This could extend the peak phase of memory prices well beyond previous forecasts. Major overseas investment banks and market research firms had built their supply-demand outlooks around the assumption that DRAM and NAND prices would peak in Q3 before gradually stabilizing from Q4. But if the Samsung semiconductor strike materializes, the peak could be pushed beyond Q4, potentially having an additional pass-through effect on consumer prices. TrendForce projects that the memory supply shortage will persist through 2027.

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https://t.co/XHb1Gjs9aO


a significant portion of DRAM output from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix has been allocated to HBM for AI servers, reducing supply of commodity DRAM and NAND


The global memory market has entered a 'structural supply cliff' phase, in which supply cannot keep up with demand amid an explosion in AI infrastructure spending


Summary: Shares GF Securities Buy on INTC with PT raised to $94.2; beats add AI6 order win catalyst.

According to Jeff Pu's estimates, Intel is expected to win a portion of the AI6 orders that were previously anticipated to be awarded exclusively to Samsung. https://t.co/cRM1i5BO2q

《GF Overseas Electronics & Telecom》
☄ Intel (INTC US, Buy): Earnings Beat — From Recovery to Strength

☀ Price target raised to $94.2: Despite already elevated market expectations, Intel's 1Q results still meaningfully beat, even though 2Q guidance was somewhat conservative.


Price target raised to $94.2 … we believe Intel's core CPU business will remain strong … we revise our 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS forecasts to $1.5/$2.4/$3.1, and raise our price target from $78.5 to $94.2

Summary: GF reiterates Buy on INTC, raises PT to $94.2; bullish on CPU strength, AI inference tailwinds, foundry 18A execution, and double-digit server CPU shipment growth through 2027.

《GF Overseas Electronics & Telecom》
☄ Intel (INTC US, Buy): Earnings Beat — From Recovery to Strength

☀ Price target raised to $94.2: Despite already elevated market expectations, Intel's 1Q results still meaningfully beat, even though 2Q guidance was somewhat conservative. Many in the market view this earnings call as carrying far greater constructive significance than Intel's routine updates. In fact, several brokers have already followed up with rating upgrades, as the narrative shifts from a "turnaround story" to "AI beneficiary + external foundry option." Overall, we believe Intel's core CPU business will remain strong, with the key watch points being the tightness of substrate and silicon capacitor supply, as well as order wins and execution in the foundry business — and as our prior updates have noted, both are progressing well. Reflecting the results, guidance, and higher margins, we revise our 2026E/2027E/2028E EPS forecasts to $1.5/$2.4/$3.1, and raise our price target from $78.5 to $94.2, based on 3.5x 2027 P/B.

☀ All-around beat: 1Q revenue of $13.6B came in $1.4B above the guidance midpoint and above consensus of $12.4B. Non-GAAP gross margin was 41%, above both guidance and consensus of 35%, with EPS of $0.29 (guidance: breakeven). Operating cash flow was $1.1B, while adjusted free cash flow was -$2.0B. 2Q guidance: revenue $13.8-14.8B (+2% to +9% QoQ) vs. consensus of $13.0B; Non-GAAP gross margin of 39%, reflecting a higher Panther Lake mix; EPS guidance of $0.20, with DCAI expected to deliver double-digit QoQ growth.

☀ Foundry on track: As we have repeatedly emphasized since our initiation report in July 2025 and our pre-earnings preview on April 16, we remain bullish on strong customer engagement from Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD on 18A-P (primarily 14A), and we believe Intel will secure a portion of Tesla's AI6 program on 14A by end-2028. On execution, management indicated that 18A yields are running better than internal expectations. External foundry revenue remains small at $174M, with an operating loss of $2.4B, though improving by $72M QoQ. Management expects losses to continue narrowing through the year.

☀ CPU continues to strengthen: Intel argues that AI workloads are shifting from training toward inference, agentic AI, robotics, physical AI, and edge AI, making the CPU increasingly important as the orchestration layer of the AI stack. Management noted that server CPU demand has improved materially over the past 90 days, and expects both the industry and Intel to deliver double-digit shipment growth in 2026, with the momentum extending into 2027. As flagged in our report, the 2Q26 CPU price hike was already within expectations, and we expect another 5-10% price increase by the end of 3Q. We now forecast DCAI to grow 39%/15% YoY in 2026E/2027E.

$INTC


Summary: UBS relayed: SK Hynix leads HBM4/Rubin at 60% share, raises 2027 HBM ASP to +36% YoY with further upside; bullish.

UBS: On SK Hynix's HBM4 Redesign

SK Hynix is understood to be close to completing a partial redesign of the logic and DRAM die for HBM4, working towards final qualification for Nvidia/Rubin. We adjust our HBM4/Rubin market share assumptions to 60% for SK Hynix, 30% for Samsung, and 10% for Micron. We slightly lower our SK Hynix HBM bit shipment forecast to 18.4bn Gb in 2026 (from 19.0bn) and 24.7bn Gb in 2027 (from 26.3bn), reflecting partial capacity allocation toward LPDDR5X. This mix shift leads us to raise overall DRAM bit shipment growth to 25.7% YoY in 2026, up from 22.5% previously. We believe HBM suppliers will remain focused on rebuilding the HBM pricing premium over DDR into 2027. We raise our blended HBM ASP assumption for SK Hynix in 2027 to +36% YoY from +6% prior, with further upside possible.


we see a very favorable setup for AMD and expect revenue to be guided up at least $1B Q/Q to the low $11B range (vs. Street consensus of ~$10.4B)

Summary: Shares UBS AMD preview: above-consensus revenue guide, 80% server CPU growth, competitive advantage through 2026; INTC undershipping implies share loss.

Citing UBS's AMD earnings preview:

- The market is clearly aware that INTC's guidance reads very favorably for AMD.
- This is particularly true for server CPU, given commentary implying that INTC is undershipping the market by roughly 20%.
- The key question here is AMD's supply, but our field work throughout the quarter indicated that supply of INTC parts has been far more constrained than that of AMD parts.
- We therefore see a very favorable setup for AMD and expect revenue to be guided up at least $1B Q/Q to the low $11B range (vs. Street consensus of ~$10.4B).
- Intel's CY2026 outlook implies its Data Center & AI segment growing ~40% Y/Y, and we now see AMD server CPU growing as much as 80% this year, with units up ~40–45% and pricing up around 20%.
- From a competitive standpoint, our checks remain constructive. AMD's CPU portfolio continues to compare favorably with Intel's offerings, and the lack of meaningful timeline updates for Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids reinforces our view that AMD should maintain a competitive advantage across the x86 ecosystem through C2026.

$INTC $AMD


INTC is undershipping the market by roughly 20%


Summary: Bullish INTC on massive earnings surprise.

Intel is insane… This is a massive earnings surprise.

$INTC


Summary: Bearish Samsung: appliance exit risks weakening Galaxy distribution, core component sales, and OLED/memory demand as Chinese rivals fill the void.

Korean home appliances are highly likely to cede market leadership to China before long.

What concerns me more is that this is not simply a matter of home appliances alone. Starting with appliances, this is a broader trend in which dominance across consumer electronics as a whole—including smartphones and laptops—shifts entirely to China.

For Samsung, home appliances are not inherently a high-margin business. Yet the reason Samsung has continued to maintain this low-profitability segment is clear: it secures offline retail presence and distribution networks, through which Samsung can cross-sell its broader ecosystem products, including Galaxy devices. In other words, home appliances have served not merely as a standalone business unit, but as a distribution anchor underpinning Samsung's entire consumer-facing business.

If Samsung were to exit the appliance business, however, the consequences would not end at simply selling fewer TVs or refrigerators. The very sales foundation of Samsung Galaxy could weaken. And a decline in Galaxy sales would, in turn, mean reduced sales of Samsung's core components that go into those devices.

The bigger problem lies further downstream. If Chinese players come to dominate consumer electronics markets such as laptops and smartphones, will they continue to actively adopt Samsung's OLEDs and memory? Memory demand may be partially sustained for a while, but even that is likely to face growing pressure for substitution with Chinese-made alternatives over the long term. In particular, as Chinese memory players like CXMT scale up, it is difficult to rule out the possibility that the resulting demand shifts will benefit local Chinese suppliers rather than Samsung.

The concerns are very real.

Chinese media report that Samsung has almost certainly decided to withdraw its home appliance business from China, and that its monitor business could also exit the market.

They also say that Samsung may eventually retain only its smartphone and memory businesses in China, while https://t.co/Ujwkww5u5a


Summary: Shares KIS thesis: sustained AI-driven demand for DRAM and NAND; memory ASP premium justified by system-level cost-per-token economics, supporting MU and SNDK.

KIS, which I consider one of the top three Korean sell-side firms, published a memory report, and there’s a comment from it that I wanted to share with you all:

Memory is the critical variable that determines GPU utilization. In particular, when HBM and DRAM capacity is insufficient, memory bottlenecks prevent GPUs from being fully utilized, leading to a decline in overall system efficiency. Conversely, expanding memory capacity raises GPU utilization, allowing the same GPU resources to process a greater number of tokens. This translates directly into a lower cost per token. As cost per token falls, more users are drawn in, ultimately driving a larger expansion in inference demand. This is precisely why hyperscalers, despite rising memory ASPs, are willing to go as far as proposing long-term supply agreements in order to secure greater memory allocation. The cost of purchasing memory rises, but at the same time, that purchase improves GPU utilization—lifting overall system efficiency and lowering cost per unit of performance.

With DRAM prices having spiked roughly 3x year-over-year in a short span, the market is now bracing for a subsequent decline in demand or prices. But this view stems from looking at memory purely as a standalone cost line item. Even if DRAM is purchased at 3x the price, if that spending allows more GPUs to run and more tokens to be processed, system-wide profitability can actually improve. The fate of the chips that once tried to challenge NVIDIA GPUs by leaning on MLPerf benchmarks—touting per-chip performance-per-watt and price-performance comparisons—illustrates this well. As Jensen Huang has repeatedly emphasized, comparing single-chip specs in isolation is meaningless. Huang has stated that NVIDIA GPUs deliver the lowest cost per token in the world, adding that the lowest cost per token and the highest performance per watt are the decisive metrics of AI economics. In other words, his consistent argument is that competition should not be waged on GPU hardware specs alone, but rather on cost per token at the full-system level. The same logic extends to memory. If "buying memory at a premium still pays off at the system level," then memory purchases by hyperscalers locked in the AI arms race will continue.

The same logic applies to NAND. Active efforts are underway to integrate NAND into AI infrastructure systems. Some argue that wider NAND adoption will eat into DRAM demand, but this too misreads the memory market as a zero-sum game with a fixed pie. As AI workloads have grown, the upper tiers of the memory hierarchy—HBM and DRAM—alone can no longer accommodate the demand, and NAND has emerged as a key element in extending that hierarchy. NAND, in particular, offers an overwhelmingly lower cost per unit of capacity than DRAM. As of Q1 2026, NAND prices stand at roughly $0.10–$0.12 per GB, whereas DRAM—even mobile DRAM, the lowest-priced application segment—has already surpassed $6 per GB on a contract basis. Even if NAND prices were to double or triple, they would still remain far below DRAM. If even a portion of AI workloads can be offloaded to NAND, it can directly contribute to lowering system-wide cost per token.

$DRAM $MU $SNDK


NAND has emerged as a key element in extending that hierarchy


lead frame manufacturers are expected to see meaningful gross margin expansion, benefiting from lower-cost inventory. All major Taiwanese lead frame players are expected to sustain steady sequential quarterly growth through 2026

Summary: Taiwanese lead frame suppliers CWTC, SDI, Jih Lin Technology to see margin expansion and steady sequential growth through 2026 on double-digit price hikes and volume tailwinds.

CWTC = Chin-Wei Technology Corp 2425.TW lead frames

▶ Copper price surge drives quarterly lead frame price hikes

∙ Lead frame packaging suppliers are pushing price increases to pass on rising costs across the semiconductor supply chain.

∙ Taiwanese manufacturers have already laid out new pricing adjustment plans to take effect in Q2 2026, with double-digit percentage increases expected across all product lines.

∙ Taiwan’s three major lead frame suppliers — CWTC, SDI, and Jih Lin Technology — initiated their first round of price negotiations in H2 2025.

∙ Initial increases ranged from 10% to 30%, applied in phases from Q4 2025 through Q1 2026, and have begun flowing through to revenue and profitability.

∙ CWTC noted that precious and base metal prices — specifically gold, silver, and copper — surged by over 30%, 90%, and 35% respectively since H2 2025, driving up overall process costs.

∙ Accordingly, CWTC will raise LED lead frame prices by 20%, with an even larger increase for IC lead frames — both measures taking effect simultaneously on April 1.

∙ SDI implemented pricing adjustments on roughly a quarter of its products earlier this year.

∙ However, with international refined copper premiums having doubled, SDI is set to execute a second round of price hikes, with an average increase expected in the double digits.

∙ SDI’s first round of increases primarily targeted IDM customers, but the second round will extend coverage to OSAT customers as well.

∙ Jih Lin Technology has ongoing price adjustments underway, with its second round of increases also expected to reach double-digit percentages.

∙ Once the initial phase of price increases is absorbed, lead frame manufacturers are expected to see meaningful gross margin expansion, benefiting from lower-cost inventory.

∙ All major Taiwanese lead frame players are expected to sustain steady sequential quarterly growth through 2026, leveraging both volume and pricing tailwinds.

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https://t.co/8FDXy5J7Iv


Summary: Bullish AMD, INTC, ARM on agentic AI driving structural CPU demand surge — 'at least twice as many CPUs' needed.

You would need at least twice as many CPUs.

$AMD $INTC $ARM https://t.co/5phuKGbXGM

🔥 CPUs are having a moment.

#Nvidia launched a standalone CPU. #Arm made its first chip in 35 years. #Intel & #AMD are raising prices amid a supply crunch.

What's behind it: Agentic AI needs far more CPU than anyone planned for — driving a structural shift in CPU:GPU ratios https://t.co/KroXoKJKdK


Summary: GF Securities Buy on MU and SK Hynix; DRAM market structurally tight through 2028 on AI demand, LTAs with floor prices >25% above Q2 2026; DDR5 over DDR4.

GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Communications: Memory Industry — It’s Too Early to Be Pessimistic

Spot prices need not be a major concern: We believe the recent spot price pullback is primarily due to elevated premiums persisting even after Q2 price increases. For example, Huaqiangbei 64GB DDR5 spot prices are ~$2,500, nearly double the Micron/Samsung Q2 2026 contract price of $1,250–1,500. Similarly, eSSD spot market pricing is near $0.5/GB vs. contract prices near $0.3/GB. We believe channel inventory and speculative position unwinding triggered the price decline, but expect spot prices to gradually stabilize underpinned by strong contract pricing.

AI is the key DRAM demand driver: We now estimate pure AI server demand (HBM + near-GPU DRAM) will account for ~37% of total DRAM demand in 2026, growing 74% in 2027 and 90% in 2028, primarily driven by platform transitions such as NVIDIA Rubin Ultra’s shift to 1TB HBM, higher CPU LPDDR capacity, and Google’s aggressive shipment plans. Despite investor concerns about 2028 expansion, we believe the DRAM market will remain structurally tight. AI demand alone can drive >40% incremental wafer-equivalent demand growth, far exceeding the ~15% annual supply growth from technology migration. Consequently, even with new capacity additions, memory capex in 2028 could approach $200B, and this still does not account for wafer output lag and robust general-purpose server demand.

LTAs underpin earnings visibility; valuations digesting rapidly: We have recently observed positive progress on LTAs between memory manufacturers and [hyperscaler] partners. Under new LTA terms, pricing will fluctuate with market conditions but with floor prices set to ensure minimum pricing. Notably, 2027 floor prices are >25% above Q2 2026 DRAM pricing, while 2028 LTAs (e.g., the Samsung–Google agreement) show further YoY increases. More importantly, these LTAs carry higher commitment levels, with upfront payments reaching billions of dollars. Thanks to these agreements, we believe current profitability levels can be sustained through 2028. Taking Micron (MU US, Buy) as an example, we estimate FY2028 BVPS could exceed $300, implying a current valuation of ~1.3x P/B. We believe the near-term memory trading focus remains DRAM pricing, but longer-term investors will pivot toward earnings sustainability.

DDR4 cycle has peaked: In contrast to DDR5, we believe the DDR4 cycle has peaked. On the demand side, DDR4 prices remain above post-Q2 DDR5 prices, which continues to incentivize customers to accelerate migration to DDR5 platforms. On the supply side, the DDR4 EOL timeline has been extended: 1) domestic (Chinese) DRAM manufacturers will not EOL DDR4 and will deliver an additional ~20% DDR4 supply uplift through technology migration; 2) Samsung and SK Hynix (000660 KS, Buy) have also pushed back their DDR4 EOL timelines to Q4 2026. We now expect DDR4 contract prices to rise 15–20% in Q2 2026, well below the 50–60% increase for DDR5, and anticipate meaningful pricing pressure in Q3 2026.


we believe the DRAM market will remain structurally tight. AI demand alone can drive >40% incremental wafer-equivalent demand growth

DRAM sector basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix


Summary: Shares SK Securities raised PTs: Samsung Electronics to KRW 500k (+88% upside) and SK Hynix to KRW 3M (+87.5% upside).

SK Securities raised its target price for Samsung Electronics to KRW 500,000, implying 88% upside.

SK Securities raised its target price for SK hynix to KRW 3,000,000, implying 87.5% upside.

SK Securities’ OP forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix:

2026E OP
Samsung Electronics: KRW 338tn ($233.83bn)
SK hynix: KRW 262tn ($181.25bn)

2027E OP
Samsung Electronics: KRW 494tn ($341.77bn)
SK hynix: KRW 376tn ($260.12bn)


SK Securities raised its target price for SK hynix to KRW 3,000,000, implying 87.5% upside.


Summary: GF Overseas reiterates Buy on INTC; 1Q26 beat, strong server CPU momentum, foundry on track; near- and long-term tailwinds intact.

GF Overseas Electronics & Communications
 Intel (INTC US, Buy) — 1Q26 Results Review
1Q26 results beat expectations

- Revenue: US$13.6bn, +7% YoY, above consensus of US$12.4bn
- Gross margin: 41%, +3.1 ppts QoQ, above guidance of 34.5%
- EPS: US$0.29, above consensus of US$0.01

Segment performance

- CCG: Revenue US$7.7bn, operating margin 32.6% (+5.6 ppts)
- DCAI: Revenue US$5.1bn, operating margin 30.5% (+4.1 ppts)
- Foundry: Revenue US$5.4bn, operating loss US$2.4bn, improving by US$0.1bn QoQ

2Q26 guidance also beat expectations

- Revenue: US$13.8–14.8bn, +5% QoQ, above consensus of US$13bn
- Gross margin: 39%, -2 ppts QoQ, above consensus of 36.5%
- EPS: US$0.20, above consensus of US$0.12

Other key takeaways

- The 1Q gross margin beat reflected higher sales, product mix optimization, pricing, and improved 18A yield.
- Gross margin is expected to decline modestly by 2 ppts QoQ in 2Q, due to a meaningful increase in the contribution from 18A.
- Capex is expected to be roughly flat with last year, while spending on equipment/tools is increasing significantly and is expected to grow by around 25% YoY.
- 14A is currently being developed with multiple customers on PDKs. Intel already has a 0.5 PDK and is targeting a 0.9 PDK. The company reiterated that early customer design commitments are expected in 2H26, extending into 1H27.
- The ASIC business performed strongly, with 1Q revenue up more than 30% QoQ and nearly doubling YoY.
- Panther Lake shipments are increasing. In 2Q, shipments could grow 6–7x QoQ versus 1Q. Panther Lake gross margin is improving quarter by quarter, though it remains below the company average.
- Gross margin in the second half needs to be monitored due to rising raw material costs, including substrates, T-glass, and memory prices.
- Intel increased its advanced packaging order backlog and announced an expansion of its backend facility in Malaysia to support order demand that is expected to convert into revenue in 2027.
- Intel expects the full-year PC market TAM to decline by low double digits YoY.
- Intel expects server CPU shipments to grow by double digits this year.
- Annualized ASIC revenue has already exceeded US$1bn.
- The GPU-to-CPU ratio is typically 7–8:1 during the model training stage, but changes to around 3:1 or 4:1 during the inference stage.

GF HK view
Intel rose 19% after hours, as both 1Q results and 2Q guidance came in far above expectations. Server CPU growth momentum is strong, and the foundry business is progressing according to plan, including rapid improvement in 18A yield and smooth progress on 14A.

We expect near-term results to continue benefiting from CPU tailwinds. Longer term, considering Intel’s favorable supply-chain positioning and improving execution in foundry, investor confidence and risk appetite toward Intel are gradually strengthening. We remain positive on the stock.

$INTC


NVIDIA is taking money from the hyperscalers and returning it to shareholders. That's bullish.

Summary: Bullish NVDA: capital extraction from hyperscalers returned to shareholders via buybacks/dividends.

@TShirtnJeans2 @benitoz @firstadopter @zephyr_z9 NVIDIA is taking money from the hyperscalers and returning it to shareholders. That’s bullish.

@benitoz @firstadopter @jukan05 @zephyr_z9 these are big promises. The rest of the Mag 7 are going to cancel buybacks while $NVDA will be buying back a trillion worth of shares. Could be even more if the dividends it pays out get auto reinvested.


Agentic AI could turn AI from a capex-heavy cost burden into a business where usage growth drives margin expansion... Goldman Sachs argues that this margin inflection is beginning to appear from 2026 onward

Summary: Endorses Goldman's AI bull case: agentic AI drives token usage, improves hyperscaler unit economics, margin inflection from 2026 onward.

AI infra/hyperscaler basket: NVDA, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META

industry='Internet Content & Information'

I read Goldman Sachs’ AI report, and I was genuinely impressed.

The core insight is as follows:

Agentic AI could turn AI from a capex-heavy cost burden into a business where usage growth drives margin expansion. As token costs fall, more complex agents become economically viable. These agents then consume far more tokens through longer context windows, repeated reasoning loops, validation, tool use, and always-on background monitoring.

This increase in token usage improves infrastructure utilization, strengthens unit economics, and gives hyperscalers and model providers more room to reinvest in model quality, distribution, and capacity.

In other words, the bull case for AI capex is not simply that usage will grow. It is that this usage growth can increasingly flow through at attractive incremental margins. Goldman Sachs argues that this margin inflection is beginning to appear from 2026 onward.

We have only just entered the early innings. https://t.co/keHgvgf20w


DB HiTek plans to raise its 8-inch foundry process pricing by a single-digit percentage per wafer starting in Q2 of this year... Utilization rates at the Bucheon and Sangwoo campuses are also high at over 90%... high utilization rates are expected to be maintained throughout this year

Summary: DB HiTek raising 8-inch wafer prices 3–5% from Q2 with 91%+ utilization; full benefit expected through year-end.

8-inch Foundry Prices on the Rise… Korean Foundries to See Full Benefit from Q2

The 8-inch foundry industry is enjoying a boom driven by rising power semiconductor demand and constrained production capacity.

On the 22nd, it was learned that DB HiTek plans to raise its 8-inch foundry process pricing by a single-digit percentage per wafer starting in Q2 of this year.

8-inch foundry refers to processes using wafers with a 200mm (millimeter) diameter. It is primarily used for mature (legacy) processes at 130 nanometers (nm) and above. While not cutting-edge, it mass-produces semiconductors essential across industries, including power management ICs (PMIC), display driver ICs (DDI), and CMOS image sensors (CIS).

The 8-inch foundry market began its full-fledged rebound last year. Power semiconductor demand has been rising across industries, while major players such as Samsung Electronics and TSMC have been gradually scaling down their 8-inch production capacity since last year.

Samsung Electronics is planning to completely shut down its Giheung 6-2 line, which produces 8-inch foundry output. An industry source explained, "Samsung Electronics is first clearing out products with poor profitability in 8-inch foundry," adding that "the related ecosystem is already within the sphere of influence."

As the 8-inch supply crunch intensifies, 8-inch foundries are also facing pricing pressure. China's SMIC already sent a notice to customers late last year informing them of a 10% price increase for its 8-inch BCD process. BCD is a power semiconductor process that implements three different power devices (Bipolar, CMOS, and DMOS) on a single chip, enhancing durability and power efficiency.

DB HiTek also mass-produces 8-inch BCD processes as its mainstay. It has been in continuous discussions with customers regarding process price increases. The price hike could be reflected as early as Q2 of this year, with the increase understood to be in the 3–5% range.

Utilization rates at the Bucheon and Sangwoo campuses are also high at over 90%. According to DB HiTek's Q1 business report, the company's average utilization rate stands at 91.96%.

An industry source stated, "Because there are various 8-inch processes, the situation differs slightly from case to case, but price increase discussions have been progressing steadily since late last year," and added, "As customers continue their inventory build-up stance, high utilization rates are expected to be maintained throughout this year."

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https://t.co/XeUX98Pj1x


Summary: Author picks Largan Precision as the top Apple value-chain play on potential iPhone 2027 production increase above 260-270M units.

Largan Precision 3008.TW Taiwan camera lens

It seems like a good time to invest in Apple’s value chain…

My pick is Largan Precision.

Korea’s SK Securities: Apple is considering increasing iPhone production by more than 5% in 2027 as well. Shipments could exceed 260 million units and potentially reach 270 million.


I'd been thinking the same for quite a while… we continue to prefer memory names — for example, MU, which we see as an inevitable re-rating story

Summary: Author endorses UBS view: long MU as inevitable re-rating; short STX/WDC as overvalued cyclicals trading at peak multiples that will fall off a cliff when HDD demand flattens.

I’d been thinking the same for quite a while, and UBS finally called it out clearly this time: why are HDD stocks being rewarded with premium valuations while memory stocks remain undervalued? Sharing this here:

"While we do not see any negative catalysts for STX or WDC in the near term, we believe it is problematic that the market is taking a structurally very different view of HDD stocks versus memory stocks, and we continue to prefer memory names — for example, MU, which we see as an inevitable re-rating story. Put a different way, the market is treating HDD stocks as if they are no longer cyclical - something we push back on aggressively as we believe customers will 2x order HDD capacity until demand starts to flatten - at which case revenue and EPS for HDD stocks will fall off a proverbial cliff. Even if we take an aggressive ~30% EB growth Y/Y, HSD% price increases, and LDD% costdowns for the next 2-3 years, STX still trades at 11x - almost 2-3 turns higher than the peak of previous cycles and the exact opposite of the expectations placed on MU despite the memory industry structurally changing. So, with a still-positive cyclical view for now and a negative structural view relative to the current peaky multiples, we remain Neutral; we continue to prefer MU and semicaps as better cyclicals to gain exposure to the AI buildout."

$MU


customers will 2x order HDD capacity until demand starts to flatten - at which case revenue and EPS for HDD stocks will fall off a proverbial cliff… STX still trades at 11x - almost 2-3 turns higher than the peak of previous cycles


we do not see any negative catalysts for STX or WDC in the near term… we remain Neutral


Summary: Korean WF6 suppliers SK Specialty and Foosung are windfall beneficiaries of China's tungsten export controls; Samsung faces higher supply disruption risk than SK Hynix.

SK Specialty (gas supplier, WF6 context) listed on KOSPI 285130.KS

EXCLUSIVE: "Worse Than the Iran Helium Problem"... Semiconductor Industry Faces 'Tungsten Crisis'

"Helium can be sourced from the U.S. or Russia. For tungsten, there's nowhere to go but China."

While concerns over semiconductor process material procurement — including helium — have emerged in the wake of the Iran war, the semiconductor industry points to tungsten hexafluoride (WF6) as an even more urgent supply risk.

Japanese suppliers, which account for roughly 25% of global WF6 supply, have signaled production cuts in the second half of the year. The reason: China's tightening of tungsten export controls toward Japan has made it difficult for them to secure raw materials.

According to multiple industry sources on April 3, Japanese WF6 suppliers such as Kanto Denka and Central Glass began notifying Korean semiconductor companies — including Samsung Electronics and DB HiTek — of raw material supply disruptions starting last week. A source familiar with the matter said, "They indicated they can maintain supply through May–June using existing tungsten inventory, but cannot guarantee anything beyond that for the second half." The source added, "They asked Korean clients to seek alternatives such as SK Specialty or Foosung."

Samsung Electronics has a higher dependence on Japanese WF6 than SK Hynix, making the switch to domestic suppliers more urgent. SK Hynix is reportedly in a relatively better position, as it already sources some volume from SK Specialty, Foosung, and the Chinese supplier Peric. Meanwhile, some foundries are now under pressure to fast-track process qualification of Korean-made WF6 — a procedure that typically takes over 18 months, parts of which are now being skipped given the urgency.

WF6 is a critical precursor used to deposit tungsten films on semiconductor wafers. These tungsten films serve as pathways for electrical signals within chips. While WF6 is used across DRAM, NAND, and logic, consumption is overwhelmingly concentrated in 3D NAND — its vertically stacked cell structure means that at 200 layers, tungsten must be deposited 200 times. A technology transition to replace tungsten interconnects with molybdenum is partially underway in leading-edge NAND processes, but full-scale adoption will take considerable time.

WF6 manufacturers import Chinese tungsten powder, react it with fluorine gas at high temperatures, then distill and purify it into high-purity gas for semiconductor use. China accounts for 80% of global tungsten powder supply.

Since February of last year, China has imposed an export licensing regime on strategic minerals including tungsten. On top of that, following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan in January of this year, China added export controls on "dual-use" items destined for Japan. Tungsten powder qualifies as a dual-use item — it is both a semiconductor material and a component used in weapons systems including tanks, missiles, and aircraft.

As China's export controls have taken hold, tungsten prices have surged relentlessly. Tungsten powder prices have risen 6–7x over the past year. According to Bloomberg, the international benchmark price for ammonium paratungstate (APT) — the raw material for tungsten powder — has climbed 557% since February of last year.

South Korea remains relatively free from China's export controls, and SK Specialty and Foosung have maintained their tungsten powder imports. However, SK Specialty has reportedly notified customers of a more-than-double price increase for WF6. Foosung is taking the same stance, as the cost structure is identical. An industry source said, "The bottom line is that domestic WF6 suppliers stand to benefit from the windfall."

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https://t.co/qzXEFp0WSC


Samsung Electronics has a higher dependence on Japanese WF6 than SK Hynix, making the switch to domestic suppliers more urgent


Summary: Maintains bullish directional view on SUMCO; admits timing was too conservative but thesis on epi wafer tightening and 300mm constraints intact.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

I fully agree with the broad logic laid out by SemiAnalysis. That said, I did not expect the stock to bottom and rebound this quickly.

It is true that the supply-demand balance for epitaxial wafers is tightening. However, there is one important nuance in the near term. We are now in a period where profitability in commodity memory has become higher than in HBM, which gives the Memory Big 3 a stronger incentive to prioritize commodity DRAM/NAND production.

In that scenario, the shipment mix of relatively lower-margin polished wafers could grow faster than that of higher-margin epitaxial wafers in 2026. In other words, even if wafer shipments recover, the improvement in company-wide ASPs and margins may be more gradual than the market currently expects.

This is especially relevant given that 85–90% of SUMCO’s 300mm revenue is under LTAs, while spot-price exposure is limited to only some memory-related demand. As a result, it is difficult for the memory supercycle to translate immediately into an explosive increase in wafer makers’ ASPs. And considering that the wafer industry typically lags the memory cycle, this rerating has happened much faster than I had expected.

Ultimately, the market seems to be pricing in post-2027 epi wafer tightness and 300mm supply constraints ahead of 2026 earnings. I do not think my directional view was wrong; rather, I was probably too conservative on the timing.

SemiAnalysis最近发了一组硅晶圆行业的分析，逻辑很清晰，简单转述一下。

需求端两条线。一条是先进制程逻辑芯片（7nm以下），晶圆需求预计明年开始加速，到CY28接近100万片/月，占300mm等效总需求约10%。用的是外延片（epi wafer），供需平衡收紧速度比市场预期快。另一条是HBM，8到16层DRAM


AMD is accelerating the introduction of its next-generation Helios rack-scale AI platform... AMD's MI300 and MI350 series, in particular, are establishing themselves as one of the core pillars of hyperscalers' future high-performance AI server expansion, positioning AMD as a key player in AI supply chain diversification

Summary: Long AMD on accelerating Helios rack-scale platform rollout, hyperscaler adoption (MSFT, Meta, xAI), and MI300/MI350 becoming core AI server pillars for diversification away from NVIDIA.

>> AMD Accelerates Helios Rollout… Taiwan AI Server Supply Chain Gears Up in Earnest

• AMD is accelerating the introduction of its next-generation Helios rack-scale AI platform, with full-scale mass production deployment set to begin in 2H26. As North American CSPs broaden their adoption of AMD AI GPU platforms, Taiwanese ODMs are also moving into production-ready mode.

• Major ODMs including Wistron, Wiwynn, and Inventec have already begun mass production preparations, with sequential shipments expected to start as early as late Q2 to Q3, followed by a full-scale ramp in Q4. The market views rising AMD platform penetration—alongside expanding rack-scale AI server demand—as a new growth engine for the Taiwan AI server supply chain.

• TrendForce notes that the top five North American hyperscalers are sharply increasing rack-scale AI server purchases this year to expand their AI training and inference infrastructure. Accordingly, NVIDIA GB300, AMD Helios, and CSPs' own ASIC platforms are all expected to enter large-scale buildout phases simultaneously.

• The industry view is that cloud companies have aggressively expanded AMD purchases over the past year to avoid excessive concentration of AI compute resources on NVIDIA. AMD's MI300 and MI350 series, in particular, are establishing themselves as one of the core pillars of hyperscalers' future high-performance AI server expansion, positioning AMD as a key player in AI supply chain diversification.

• Microsoft is currently the most aggressive CSP in adopting AMD AI infrastructure, having designated AMD as its second AI accelerator platform. Helios rack systems will begin mass production shipments in 2H26, with MI450-based AI rack systems targeted for deployment before year-end and MI500 series adoption planned for 2027.

• Meta is likewise leveraging AMD platforms as an important supplementary compute resource within its "Meta Compute" strategy, aiming to build a hybrid ASIC compute architecture beyond its NVIDIA-centric structure. xAI is also cited as a key customer that has adopted the AMD Helios rack system as core compute infrastructure for AI development.

• Within the Taiwan supply chain, Wistron has secured a substantial volume of AMD front-end board orders and will support shipments of the new platform through its newly built Zhubei Plant 2. Inventec is expected to see a meaningful shipment ramp from Q4 on the back of growing orders from large CSP customers, while Wiwynn is also projected to gradually increase Helios rack system shipments from Q3 onward.

$AMD

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https://t.co/vAisBgldQV


Summary: Long SK Hynix into Q2: record margins expected again as DRAM/NAND ASPs rise ~20-30% QoQ and bit shipments accelerate.

SK Hynix Set for Even Stronger Q2 — Memory Tailwinds Point to Record Profitability

SK Hynix posted its highest-ever profitability in Q1, driven by an unprecedented memory supercycle. The operating margin reached 72%, placing the company among the top tier of global manufacturers. SK Hynix is highly likely to deliver record profitability again in Q2, as DRAM and NAND prices continue to climb and shipments expand with a shift toward higher-value products.

According to industry sources on the 23rd, SK Hynix is expected to set a new all-time high operating margin in Q2 on the back of the continuing memory supercycle.

In Q1, SK Hynix reported revenue of KRW 52.5763 trillion and operating profit of KRW 37.6103 trillion. Revenue rose 198% YoY and 60% QoQ, while operating profit jumped 405% YoY and 96% QoQ.

These results mark a record high for the company. The 72% operating margin ranks at the top of the global manufacturing sector, exceeding the recent profitability of major players including TSMC, Nvidia, and Micron.

Memory bit growth in Q1 was limited — DRAM was flat QoQ and NAND declined roughly 10% QoQ. However, average selling prices (ASP) for DRAM and NAND rose by the mid-60% and mid-70% range respectively, driving a sharp expansion in profitability.

This was supported by rising demand for high-value server memory tied to AI infrastructure investment. Notably, excluding HBM — where price volatility is limited — commodity DRAM ASP is estimated to have increased by around 100%.

Q2 earnings are expected to expand further, as volume growth and price increases are set to materialize simultaneously.

SK Hynix guided Q2 DRAM bit growth to the high single digits and NAND to the mid-teens, with ASPs expected to continue rising. Current industry estimates place Q2 QoQ ASP increases at roughly 20% for DRAM and 30% for NAND.

A semiconductor industry source said, "Given current conditions, a sharp rise in memory prices through Q2 is all but locked in, and SK Hynix's operating margin is highly likely to set a new record high in Q2."

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https://t.co/LpLECpQ9qK


Lynx Equity raised Micron's price target to $825, a Street-high

Summary: Relays Lynx Equity Street-high $825 PT on MU; HBM/DDR5/LPDDR5 capacity fully booked through 2027.

Lynx Equity raised Micron’s price target to $825, a Street-high, and commented as follows:

"Beyond Micron management’s statement that its 2026 HBM capacity is already sold out, the company’s HBM, DDR5, and LPDDR5 production capacity has now been fully reserved through 2027.

With 2027 allocation now complete, Micron is currently in discussions with key customers regarding 2028 supply volumes and pricing terms."

OK… so 2027 is already fully booked?

$MU


Citi cuts Micron's price target to $425 from $510, citing weakness in memory spot prices

Summary: Shares Citi PT cut on MU to $425 from $510 on memory spot price weakness; implied bearish.

Just in: Citi cuts Micron’s price target to $425 from $510, citing weakness in memory spot prices.

$MU https://t.co/KAvNtTuBNs


Summary: Short MSFT in reaction to criticism of Office 365/SharePoint product quality.

Microsoft Office 365 is such a dog shit product.
Literally been breaking for the last 2 weeks when we try to buy more licenses.
We use Gmail and Slack, so it's silly to even use this.
Sharepoint is buggy a f too.
Why no one else make a functional collaborative file systems :( https://t.co/kO9ur2JYeP


we remain constructive over the long term on TER's AI-related share gains and CPO growth potential ... we lower our FY27 earnings multiple to 30x P/E and set a new target price of US$381

Summary: Remain constructive long-term on TER; cut FY27 multiple to 30x, new PT $381; near-term limited but CPO and AI upside materialize in 2027.

[GF Overseas Electronics & Communications]
Teradyne 1Q26 Review: Entering a Transition Period in 2H26

☄ Teradyne 1Q26 Review: Entering a Transition Period in 2H26

☀ Strong 1Q results, but full-year 2026 guidance fell short of expectations:
Teradyne reported 1Q26 revenue of US$1.28 billion and gross margin of 60.9%, beating market expectations. Despite the strong first-quarter performance, the company guided 2Q26 revenue of US$1.15–1.25 billion, with the midpoint implying a 6% QoQ decline.
Management noted that 55–60% of 2026 revenue will still be concentrated in 1H26, which is below the market’s optimistic expectations for CPO, memory, and AI businesses. Meanwhile, in the CPO testing segment, management expects the medium-term TAM to reach US$300–700 million.

After the earnings release, the stock fell 20%. Although we remain constructive over the long term on TER’s AI-related share gains and CPO growth potential, near-term catalysts are limited. The company currently trades at 47x FY2026 P/E, representing a valuation premium versus SPE peers. Given uncertainty around 2H26 revenue, we lower our FY27 earnings multiple to 30x P/E and set a new target price of US$381.

☀ 2H26 enters a transition period:
We believe the high first-half revenue weighting is partly due to the Mellanox business, where all 160–170 equipment shipments are concentrated in 1H26. Looking ahead, 2H26 will be a transition period for Teradyne’s business, with AI-driven growth expected to materialize more meaningfully in 2027.

Although Teradyne completed its first GPU tester shipments in 1Q26, these were mainly for Nvidia gaming GPUs. Testers for Nvidia’s Rubin platform are expected to begin shipping in 4Q26, with 2027 shipments ramping to 100–150 units. On the MediaTek side, a small number of tools will ship in 2026, while a more significant revenue contribution is expected in 2H27 as MediaTek’s Humufish capacity scales up.

☀ CPO revenue has upside potential:
Management stated that the medium-term TAM for CPO test equipment is US$300–700 million, and it is also positive on providing Insertion 2 testing solutions through its partnership with Ficontec.

We are more optimistic on the outlook for the CPO business. According to supply-chain checks, Teradyne’s 2027 CPO revenue could reach US$800 million. The company has an absolute competitive advantage in full-flow CPO testing, covering Insertion 1/2/4 stages.

The current bottleneck in the CPO industry is concentrated in the OE stage, where SoIC process yields remain low, leading the industry to revise down near-term CPO shipment expectations. We recommend closely tracking CPO industry progress, as this business represents Teradyne’s biggest potential upside driver in 2026.

$TER


Summary: Bullish DELL: Agentic AI CPU servers carry higher ASP and play to Dell's general-purpose server strength.

Dell is up a lot today…

Dell has significant growth potential thanks to CPUs.

CPU servers for Agentic AI share many components with general-purpose servers, but come with a higher ASP.

This is a major tailwind for Dell, given its strength in general-purpose servers.

$DELL

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Another major positive is that Agentic AI CPU servers do not necessarily require relying on Taiwanese ODMs or outsourcing work to them.


Summary: Shares news that Google is designing two ASICs (MPU + TPU) with Marvell; implicit bullish endorsement via cashtag.

THE INFORMATION: GOOGLE IS DESIGNING TWO ASICS WITH MARVELL

THE INFORMATION: ONE IS A MEMORY PROCESSING UNIT DESIGNED TO WORK ALONGSIDE GOOGLE’S TENSOR PROCESSING UNITS (TPUS), AND THE OTHER IS A NEW TPU OPTIMIZED FOR RUNNING AI MODELS.

$MRVL

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https://t.co/DvJgUpZbma


Summary: SoCAMM/LPDDR5 demand from Vera CPU + NVL72 likely exceeds 2026–2027 supply; DRAM shortage set to intensify, bullish MU and DRAM sector.

KIS comment on NVIDIA Vera CPU:

On today’s conference call, NVIDIA stated that it expects the standalone Vera CPU market to reach $20 billion in FY2027.

The unit price of Grace CPU is estimated at around $3,000–$5,000. Since Vera is the successor to Grace and is optimized for AI agentic workloads, we expect Vera to carry a higher ASP of roughly $5,000–$8,000 per unit.

Assuming a Vera CPU ASP of $8,000, a $20 billion market would imply 2.5 million CPUs.

It remains unclear whether standalone Vera CPU sales will include the same SoCAMM capacity as NVL72. However, assuming the same capacity is applied, each Vera CPU would have 8 SoCAMM slots. Assuming 192GB per module, SoCAMM capacity per Vera CPU would be 1,536GB.

Therefore, FY2027 SoCAMM demand for Vera CPU would be:

2.5 million CPUs × 1,536GB = 3.84 billion GB, or 30.72 billion Gb.

CY2026, which broadly overlaps with NVIDIA’s FY2027, SoCAMM supply from the three major DRAM makers is estimated at 30 billion Gb. Therefore, combined SoCAMM demand from NVIDIA’s standalone Vera CPU sales and VR NVL72 sales already appears likely to exceed the annual supply capacity of 30 billion Gb.

In our previous in-depth report, assuming CY2027 VR NVL72 shipments of 100,000 servers, we estimated the SoCAMM TAM at 44 billion Gb based on 192GB modules. If additional SoCAMM demand from standalone Vera CPU sales is added, the CY2027 SoCAMM TAM could exceed 80 billion Gb.

An annual 80 billion Gb of LPDDR5 would be nearly equivalent to the annual LPDDR5 TAM used for smartphones.

The shortage of LPDDR5 — and of DRAM overall — is likely to intensify further over time.

$MU $DRAM


NVDA's claimed 35x TCO advantage does not resonate strongly with the average AI engineer, and there is a widespread perception that its 70%+ gross margins are excessive. There is a clear willingness to improve economics by using ASICs or 'good enough' alternatives.

Summary: Shares Evercore ISI report highlighting NVDA margin vulnerability and customer willingness to switch to ASICs/alternatives; implied bearish on pricing power.

From Evercore ISI’s report:

NVDA’s claimed 35x TCO advantage does not resonate strongly with the average AI engineer, and there is a widespread perception that its 70%+ gross margins are excessive. There is a clear willingness to improve economics by using ASICs or “good enough” alternatives.

Some hyperscalers push back against NVDA’s 35x TCO advantage claim, arguing that the calculation does not account for power consumption around the chip, including cooling. The power component, including cooling, can account for 30–50% of total overhead costs.

No major issues have been observed at the hyperscaler level in the bring-up preparation for Rubin mass production.

Vera Rubin mass-production shipments are expected to be received by hyperscalers in 2Q26, while enterprise OEMs are expected to have access around September–October 2026.


Summary: TSMC's expected High-NA EUV adoption confirmation (A14 node, volume ~2029) is bullish for ASML as the sole High-NA EUV supplier.

An interesting sell-side prediction I came across: TSMC is expected to unveil its A14 enhanced node on April 22, and this node will likely signal the initial adoption of High-NA EUV at limited volume.

If realized, this would mark TSMC's first official confirmation of High-NA EUV adoption.

For context, TSMC announced the use of EUV for its N7+ node at its 2017 Symposium — roughly two years ahead of its 2019 volume production.

Given that TSMC's A14+ volume production is estimated for around 2029, it is plausible that TSMC will share details on this process upgrade in 2026–27, mirroring the 2017 precedent.

$ASML


Summary: Long Nittobo: dominant supplier of T-glass accelerating CapEx 50% to meet surging AI server and smartphone demand while defending market share.

Nittobo = Nitto Boseki, TSE 3110.T, glass fiber supplier

Why No Price Hike Despite a Severe Shortage? Why doesn't Nittobo raise prices to reap windfall profits?

The AI server boom has triggered an explosion in global demand for high-end glass fiber materials. Yet even as the market tightens into deepening shortage, Nittobo (Nitto Boseki, 日東紡) has opted for a counterintuitive strategy. Management made clear that the company currently has no plans for further price increases on its low-CTE (low coefficient of thermal expansion) glass fabric (T-glass), emphasizing that at this stage it will focus on expanding capacity to "defend market share."

According to Japanese media reports, Nittobo is a leading major supplier that commands the critical global supply of high-end low-thermal-expansion glass fiber. The company said it had initially planned to prioritize expanding low-Dk (low dielectric) glass fiber capacity, but as demand from AI servers and edge devices such as smartphones outpaced expectations, the supply-demand gap for low-thermal-expansion T-glass widened sharply. In response, it has decided to accelerate the pace of expansion, adding glass fabric production lines at its Fukushima site in Japan while also installing new glass melting furnace equipment in Taiwan.

Nittobo noted that T-glass demand is currently expanding rapidly. Not only is demand for the "thick fabric" used in semiconductor packaging substrates for AI servers continuing to climb, but the growth rate of the "thin fabric" used in edge devices such as smartphones is exceeding initial expectations by an even wider margin. The company emphasized that it has reached an internal consensus to further scale up the relevant capital investment in order to meet the strong demand from both thick-fabric and thin-fabric customers simultaneously.

Defending Market Share Over Short-Term Price Hikes

On the future price trajectory that the market is watching closely, Nittobo management responded that it currently has no plans to make further price adjustments to either T-glass or low-dielectric glass, and will continue selling at the prices set at the start of this fiscal year. The company reiterated that its top priority at present is expanding capacity to meet customer demand, thereby cementing its leadership position in the high-end materials market. It added that, so long as its products remain competitive and market demand holds firm, it will not hesitate to commit to capacity expansion.

Nittobo had previously announced that it would raise the capital expenditure (CapEx) budget in its FY2024–2027 medium-term management plan by a substantial 50%, from the originally planned ¥80 billion to ¥120 billion—a move intended to respond to product demand and shifts in the market environment.

Glass fabric is a critical component of IC substrates and printed circuit boards (PCBs), serving as the most fundamental chip-reinforcement layer material in electronic devices. As advanced chip packaging imposes extremely stringent requirements on micro-scale deformation, T-glass—with its low-thermal-expansion properties—can effectively prevent package warpage, establishing itself as a core element in ensuring the stability of high-end computing.

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https://t.co/3d8WWJ5Xsf


Kioxia will surpass Toyota's market cap within this year

Summary: Kioxia will surpass Toyota's market cap by year-end; strongly bullish on Kioxia's relative rise.

Kioxia will surpass Toyota’s market cap within this year.


Summary: DB HiTek named beneficiary of Chinese fabless order diversification away from SMIC; 98% utilization guidance bullish for Korean 8-inch foundry.

DB HiTek 000990.KS Korea KOSPI 8-inch foundry

SMIC's 8-Inch Price Hike Faces 'Headwinds'… China-Origin Volume Shifts to Korean Foundries

Following its price hike on 8-inch foundry services late last year, China's largest foundry SMIC reportedly resorted to rebates (returning overpaid amounts) after facing pushback from customers.

Among Chinese fabless companies, a clear trend is emerging of diversifying chip production away from domestic foundries toward overseas alternatives. Analysts note that as China's semiconductor localization policies intensify, wafer volumes are migrating to 8-inch foundries in Taiwan and Korea, creating a tailwind for those players.

According to semiconductor industry sources on March 31, SMIC notified its major domestic fabless clients in H2 last year of a 10–15% price increase on 8-inch BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) process foundry services. The hike was driven by rising chip volumes under Beijing's semiconductor self-sufficiency push, combined with tightening supply as Samsung and TSMC scaled back their 8-inch lines — prompting SMIC to raise prices to improve profitability. SMIC's fab utilization indeed remained in the mid-90% range during H2 last year.

However, as fabless clients pushed back harder than expected, SMIC reportedly offered rebates to key customers. As a result, the market estimates the effective price increase was only around 2–4%.

An industry source explained: "SMIC had to push the hike because utilization matters to them too, but they saw some slippage at that point. Customer pushback was fiercer than anticipated — not something they could brush off — so they gave rebates. The market view is that the headline 10% increase was never really applied in practice."

Industry observers say it will be difficult for Chinese foundries to sustain full utilization on their 8-inch lines. While Samsung and TSMC are reducing 8-inch wafer capacity, the current high utilization rates are largely attributed to set makers building inventory ahead of anticipated semiconductor price increases.

TrendForce noted: "Uncertainty around consumer electronics demand in H2 this year could lead to downward revisions in supply chain shipment forecasts. Utilization on 8-inch lines is likely to vary across foundries, making broad-based price hikes difficult."

In contrast, domestic Korean 8-inch foundry utilization is expected to remain elevated this year. Chinese fabless firms, under Beijing's semiconductor self-sufficiency mandate, are reportedly diversifying orders to overseas foundries including Korea as they continue ramping chip volumes. The Chinese government currently requires that more than half of computing chips for public data centers be sourced from domestic suppliers, with a target of 70% domestic adoption by 2027.

A prime example is DB HiTek, Korea's leading 8-inch wafer foundry, which has guided for 98% annual utilization this year. Utilization climbed from 76% in 2024 to 92% last year, with Q4 alone hitting 98%. China accounted for 62.7% of DB HiTek's annual revenue last year — well over half.

An industry source noted: "While SMIC's business is concentrated around roughly 10 large domestic clients, DB HiTek operates a high-mix, low-volume model across about 400 customers. SMIC's client base is primarily local consumer electronics and mobile set makers, making it directly exposed to domestic demand cycles, whereas DB HiTek's structure is relatively more insulated from such swings."

A DB HiTek representative said: "Foundry pricing is part of our internal strategy, so it's hard to define precisely, but we are watching how other companies respond to market price movements. As for maintaining full utilization through year-end, we see lingering market uncertainty and plan to monitor and adapt accordingly."

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https://t.co/DCTWeOitdv


pricing power is strengthening, and the 'normal range' of margins itself could structurally shift higher versus the past

Summary: Bullish MU: HBM/AI DRAM transitioning from bit-supply to bandwidth-performance business, enabling structural margin expansion and pricing power without customer pushback.

Micron's management presented an interesting view at their NDR with Cantor.

The key insight: the market is no longer focused on pricing on a per-bit basis as in the past, but rather on a per-bandwidth basis. In other words, while price-per-bit may rise in 2026, price-per-bandwidth will decline.

This is a remarkably interesting view.

Historically, the memory industry has largely been viewed through this lens:

- How many bits of memory chips were sold
- Whether price-per-bit went up or down
- When supply increases, bit pricing falls, and margins eventually collapse

But in the AI era, as products like HBM have become critical, what customers are buying is no longer simple storage capacity — it's "how fast can data be processed," i.e., bandwidth.

For example, whereas in the past the question was "what's the capacity of this memory?", today it has shifted to "how much data per second can this system feed to the GPU?" — or so Micron's management argues.

This is especially true in today's AI infrastructure, where the latter matters far more. Memory vendors are therefore being reframed — from simply selling bits to selling units of performance that enable high-performance computing.

So what does it mean when price-per-bit rises but price-per-bandwidth falls?

The essence is this:

- Even though it may look like customers are paying more,
- They are actually getting higher performance and more bandwidth,
- So price-per-performance can actually improve.

In other words, memory vendors can raise ASPs, and from the customer's perspective, it's not a rip-off — it can be perceived as an improvement in price-performance.

Why does this structure matter? Because even as memory companies raise prices, the magnitude of bandwidth improvement is larger, creating a logical framework where memory price hikes don't face customer pushback. In effect, memory is now being evaluated on a TCO basis.

To sum it up in one line: HBM and AI DRAM are no longer a simple bit-supply business — they are becoming an integral part of GPU system performance. That's why pricing power is strengthening, and the "normal range" of margins itself could structurally shift higher versus the past.

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P.S.: As expected, American companies are incredibly skilled at putting a positive spin on their own business. It's a realm Korean companies wouldn't dare attempt to match. Who would've thought they'd come up with a bandwidth-based bull thesis lol


For now, it looks high. Even DeepSeek's approach increases the importance of NAND, if anything — it doesn't reduce it.

Summary: Bullish Sandisk; DeepSeek's approach increases NAND importance rather than reducing it, ceiling looks high.

@teortaxesTex For now, it looks high. Even DeepSeek’s approach increases the importance of NAND, if anything — it doesn’t reduce it.

@jukan05 what's the ceiling for Sandisk?


Microsoft has recently been expanding its adoption of AMD platforms... it is expected to become one of the key customers for Helios platform-based rack-scale AI systems by year-end... Microsoft's cumulative purchase volume projected to reach at least 1 million units or more

Summary: Shares bullish AMD thesis: Microsoft expanding AMD platform adoption with Helios rack-scale systems and 1M+ unit cumulative purchases projected.

Cloud Big Tech Accelerates 'Dual-Track' Strategy for AI Infrastructure Build-Out (Taiwan Commercial Times)

• As AI compute demand surges, global cloud big tech and major CSPs have been pursuing a 'dual-track strategy' in hardware procurement since this year to build out AI infrastructure. DIGITIMES forecasts that dedicated ASIC-based AI server growth will outpace GPU-based AI servers, with expected growth of YoY +64% and YoY +44%, respectively. Within the high-end AI server market, shipment share is estimated at 38% ASIC and 62% GPU.

• Looking at Tier 1 CSP strategies, Microsoft is expanding its adoption of AMD platform servers, moving away from its existing dependence on NVIDIA architecture. Meanwhile, Google and Amazon are aggressively pursuing proprietary ASIC-based AI rack systems centered on TPU and Trainium, respectively. In the related key supply chain, beyond Wiwynn, Quanta, and Hon Hai, companies such as Inventec and Sunda are also expected to benefit from ASIC AI project expansion.

• DIGITIMES forecasts AI server shipments to grow from approximately 1.844 million units in 2025 to 2.723 million units in 2026, with penetration rising to 16.7%. High-end AI servers in particular are expected to grow YoY +67.5%, from 1.142 million to 1.914 million units. Strong growth is projected to continue in 2027 and 2028, at approximately YoY +60% and YoY +49% respectively, with shipments surpassing 3 million and 4.5 million units each year.

• By ASIC and GPU breakdown, ASIC servers are forecast at 660,700 units (YoY +64.2%) and GPU AI servers at 1,064,100 units (YoY +43.8%) this year.

• Microsoft has recently been expanding its adoption of AMD platforms. Beyond the existing MI200 series, it is expected to become one of the key customers for Helios platform-based rack-scale AI systems by year-end. Additionally, the next-generation MI300 series is expected to enter mass production and supply in H2 next year, with Microsoft's cumulative purchase volume projected to reach at least 1 million units or more.

• Google continues to expand its proprietary AI ecosystem, including its large language model 'Gemini,' and its TPU project is expected to serve as a core growth driver for the ASIC AI server market this year. At the same time, Amazon's Trainium-based proprietary ASIC servers are also expected to exhibit rapid growth this year.

$AMD

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https://t.co/jkgv6JGcxH


Summary: DRAM supply crunch driving LTAs with Big Tech; Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron all beneficiaries with record earnings projected on surging demand.

MS and Google Pursuing LTA with SK Hynix

SK Hynix is entering into long-term supply agreements (LTAs) for DRAM with major global AI companies including Microsoft (MS) and Google. Big Tech is moving to lock in DRAM—a product known for high price volatility—over extended periods. As concerns over DRAM supply shortages intensify amid the global AI infrastructure investment boom, Big Tech is strategizing to secure stable access to memory, a critical component for data centers. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the world's No. 1 and No. 2 DRAM makers, are ramping up capital expenditure in response to the growing supply-demand imbalance.

◇ MS and Google Arrive with Long-Term DRAM Contracts

According to industry sources on the 5th, SK Hynix is in final-stage negotiations with MS on a long-term supply agreement for DDR5. The deal, valued in the tens of trillions of won, would cover a three-year period starting this year. Discussions are reportedly centered on provisions such as a price floor to hedge against significant DRAM ASP declines during the contract period, and terms under which 10–30% of the total contract value would be paid upfront.

SK Hynix is also in discussions with Google on a long-term supply agreement. The negotiations reportedly cover not only its flagship High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) but also commodity DRAM used in servers. MS and Google are also pursuing long-term memory supply agreements with Samsung Electronics. Micron Technology, the U.S.-based No. 3 DRAM maker behind Samsung and SK Hynix, reportedly signed a similar contract last month.

◇ "Securing Volume Matters More Than Price"

A long-term supply agreement is a contract in which volume and pricing are predetermined over an extended period. This type of agreement is typically employed when prices for a specific product surge or supply becomes scarce. Until now, large companies like MS and Google had not entered into annual or multi-year memory supply contracts with memory manufacturers, given that memory is a highly cyclical product subject to significant price volatility.

Nevertheless, Big Tech has recently been approaching Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix with LTA proposals one after another due to an increasingly acute memory shortage. Memory supply has tightened significantly as AI infrastructure investment expands worldwide, and prices have surged accordingly. According to DRAMeXchange, the DDR4 contract price, which stood at just $1.35 in March of last year, skyrocketed to $13.00 by the end of last month.

Moreover, as the AI infrastructure hegemony race appears set to become protracted, analysts note that AI companies have shifted to a strategy of securing volume first. A senior semiconductor industry executive explained, "Right now, the fact that prices have risen so much is secondary—the real issue is that DRAM volume itself is extremely difficult to procure."

◇ Samsung and SK Hynix to Significantly Expand DRAM CAPEX

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have decided to aggressively invest in DRAM capacity this year in light of these conditions. Samsung Electronics is focusing on ramping up volume of 10nm-class 6th-generation (1c) DRAM—used in HBM4—at its main DRAM production base, the Pyeongtaek campus in Gyeonggi Province. At its Hwaseong campus, the company is accelerating process migration to 10nm-class 5th-generation (1b) DRAM, which serves as the base die for SOCAMM and commodity DRAM modules.

SK Hynix is addressing new HBM volume demand centered on M15X, its new production base in Cheongju, North Chungcheong Province. Its headquarters campus in Icheon, Gyeonggi Province, is also aggressively pursuing process migration to its most advanced 1c DRAM node.

Driven by the DRAM supply crunch, both companies' Q1 earnings are estimated to reach all-time highs. In a report on the 3rd, Meritz Securities projected Samsung Electronics' Q1 estimated revenue at KRW 122 trillion and operating profit at KRW 54 trillion. The estimated operating profit is more than triple the previous Q1 record of KRW 14.12 trillion set in 2022. FnGuide estimates SK Hynix's Q1 revenue at KRW 46.6252 trillion and operating profit at KRW 31.5627 trillion—4.2x the KRW 7.4405 trillion reported in the year-ago quarter.

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https://t.co/B2Mm6qvfRU


Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have decided to aggressively invest in DRAM capacity this year


Micron Technology, the U.S.-based No. 3 DRAM maker behind Samsung and SK Hynix, reportedly signed a similar contract last month


Summary: Long Unitika; E-glass price surge driven by AI server PCB demand will push the stock higher.

Holy shit, E-glass is gonna double in price this year alone? Then Unitika (3103 JP) is definitely gonna go up even more. https://t.co/Q0QxhXflUB

Glass Fiber Cloth and Copper Foil Costs Continue to Rise… 2026 Full-Year CCL Price Hikes 'Far From Over'

As demand for high-end PCBs from AI servers and switches surges, the supply-demand imbalance in upstream materials is intensifying. Industry sources note that copper clad https://t.co/5HUAjqPxES


Summary: Shares Nomura Buy-implied PT of KRW 2.34M on SK Hynix, 92% upside on DRAM/NAND price surge.

Nomura sets a target price of KRW 2.34 million for SK hynix, implying 92% upside from the current share price.

* Nomura expects DRAM and NAND prices to rise by 51% QoQ and 65% QoQ, respectively, in 2Q.
* As a result, the company’s operating profit is expected to increase 79% QoQ to KRW 68 trillion, or USD 45.9 billion.
* For the full year, Nomura now expects DRAM and NAND prices to rise by 175% and 280%, respectively, revised up from its previous forecasts of 166% and 206%.


Summary: Long BESI as global leader in hybrid bonding equipment, with Samsung adoption decision imminent and mass production of HBM expected next year.

Netherlands' BESI: Samsung's Hybrid Bonding Adoption Decision Coming Soon

Samsung Electronics is expected to introduce hybrid bonding technology — projected to be at the heart of next-generation semiconductor production — around the middle of this year.

Dutch back-end equipment company BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI) stated during its Q1 earnings conference call on April 23 that "we should see more definitive news around the middle of this year regarding Samsung Electronics' (hybrid bonder adoption)." This is largely consistent with the outlook shared during the Q4/full-year 2025 earnings call in February, which indicated Samsung would adopt hybrid bonding in Q2.

Unlike conventional thermo-compression (TC) bonding, hybrid bonding does not use fine metal bumps to connect stacked semiconductor dies. Instead, it is an advanced packaging technology that directly connects the copper (Cu) surfaces of two chips. When applied to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and new high-layer-count NAND flash, it can deliver performance improvements, reduced power consumption, and cost savings — because the direct copper-to-copper connection enables higher integration density and shorter interconnect lengths.

That said, some observers suggest that hybrid bonding adoption could be delayed as the Joint Electron Device Engineering Council (JEDEC) moves to relax packaging height limits for next-generation HBM. On this point, BESI CEO Richard Blickman explained, "The only reason (JEDEC) is looking to relax HBM thickness specifications is because one of the three memory companies needs that height for its process," adding that "the other two are not affected by this change." The major HBM players are Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. The implication is that two of these three are pursuing hybrid bonding adoption for reasons beyond height considerations.

Hybrid bonding produces chip-to-chip gaps of around 7 micrometers (㎛), which makes it advantageous for reducing the total thickness (height) of HBM packages. JEDEC is reportedly considering raising the height limit from the current 775㎛ to either 825㎛ or 900㎛. Analysts argue that if the package height limit is relaxed, the lifespan of existing TC bonding technology would be extended, while the introduction of hybrid bonding could be delayed — since hybrid bonding would no longer be required simply to reduce thickness.

Blickman emphasized, "The advantages of hybrid bonding over conventional TC bonding — faster circuit speeds, lower power consumption, and reduced heat — are being increasingly clearly demonstrated," and "as Samsung Electronics has publicly disclosed, because of these technical benefits, (the relaxation of HBM thickness limits) has not changed the pace or rate of hybrid bonding adoption."

Samsung Electronics introduced its hybrid bonding technology for HBM at NVIDIA's annual developer conference, GTC 2026, last March. At the time, Samsung stated that hybrid bonding improves thermal resistance by more than 20% versus TC bonding and supports 16-high and higher stacks. Interconnect density is also higher. According to BESI, hybrid copper bonding (HCB) offers 15× the interconnect density of TC bonding and more than 100× the energy-efficiency performance (EEP).

BESI expects mass production of hybrid-bonding-based HBM to begin next year. Blickman explained, "All three manufacturers are conducting equipment evaluations against the same criteria set by a specific end customer," and "that end customer has asked the memory makers to secure hybrid-bonded stacked products by the end of this year, with the goal of bringing finished products to market next year." The end customer in question is most likely NVIDIA.

BESI is regarded as the global leader in the hybrid bonding equipment market. It holds a technological edge in both precision and throughput, particularly in die bonding equipment. Applied Materials, the world's largest semiconductor equipment company, holds a 9% stake, making it BESI's largest shareholder.

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https://t.co/biBH4yqVwq


Summary: Google TPU v8x tape-out delayed again at MediaTek; implied beneficiary is Broadcom (AVGO).

According to a DigiTimes report, the Google TPU product being handled by MediaTek is undergoing yet another engineering change order (ECO).

The tape-out is now expected around mid-2026, and the product undergoing the design revision is the v8x product that MediaTek is responsible for.

In other words, the tape-out has been delayed once again.

$AVGO

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https://t.co/y4nqMxhQ7U


Summary: Bullish Tower Semi on implied design win with NVIDIA as the newly secured customer.

I think the customer Tower Semi secured this time is NVIDIA.


We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a US$162 target price. CoreWeave is well positioned to become a long-term core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom.

Summary: GF Overseas initiates CRWV Buy, PT $162; bullish on AI compute demand, contract backlog, declining debt costs, and profitability inflection by 2028.

GF Overseas Electronics & Communications

CoreWeave Initiation: Riding the AI Infrastructure Supercycle

We initiate coverage with a Buy rating and a US$162 target price. Leveraging its first-mover advantage in GPU deployment, pure-play focus on AI workloads, industry-leading operational efficiency, and long-term supply agreements with leading AI cloud customers, CoreWeave is well positioned to become a long-term core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom.

We are bullish on five core drivers:

1. AI compute demand continues to accelerate.
2. The company’s remaining performance obligations provide strong support for 2026–2027 revenue expectations.
3. Debt financing costs continue to decline.
4. Large long-term contracts are gradually entering maturity, driving an inflection in profitability.
5. Rising GPU rental prices are improving the profitability of newly signed contracts.

Looking back, CoreWeave’s share-price moves have largely been driven by the signing of large contracts. We believe the next key catalysts will be new contract wins, or further disclosure of the scale of the Anthropic order.

We forecast CoreWeave’s 2026/2027/2028 revenue at US$12.3bn / US$25.6bn / US$39.6bn, respectively, with adjusted EBITDA reaching US$7.6bn / US$14.2bn / US$18.8bn. Our US$162 target price is based on 10x 2028E EV/EBITDA.

AI data centers remain in a high-growth cycle, creating a vast market opportunity for neoclouds

1. Driven by exponential growth in token consumption, global AI data center power capacity is expected to reach 283GW by 2030. Due to cash flow constraints and capex limitations, the top five global cloud providers are expected to self-build only around 53% of incremental compute capacity. After deducting compute capacity built by enterprises and sovereign AI projects, the TAM for neocloud service providers from 2026 to 2030 could reach as much as US$1.7tn.

2. OpenAI and Anthropic have disclosed AI compute center buildout plans of more than 20GW and 10GW, respectively. CoreWeave is currently the only neocloud provider that has signed long-term agreements with both companies. Orders from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Microsoft are expected to contribute 60% / 56% / 47% of CoreWeave’s revenue in 2026/2027/2028, respectively, providing extremely strong earnings visibility.

Profitability is better than expected

We expect the company to turn profitable in 2028.

1. Most large contracts are currently still in the early construction and initial billing stages. As projects enter stable monthly billing and later commercial phases after contract completion, the pace of revenue recognition should accelerate significantly.

2. New orders signed in 2026 are expected to account for around 40% of current remaining performance obligations. Benefiting from continued increases in GPU rental prices, once these orders formally enter the monthly billing stage, they should lift the company’s blended ASP by around 20%.

3. CoreWeave’s financing costs continue to fall. The latest DDTL 4.0 interest rate is SOFR + 2.25%, down sharply from the rates on DDTL 1.0 / 2.0 / 3.0 of SOFR + 9.62% / +4.25% / +4.00%, respectively.

$CRWV


Summary: Bullish AMD: MI550 packaging advantage + Rubin Ultra HBM4E delay means AMD can realistically compete in 2H27.

"MI550 is positioning to challenge Rubin Ultra in 2H27. AMD's 2.5D/3D packaging expertise enables a 4-die/12 HBM4e design, vs Rubin Ultra 2-die package (and MCM for 2 sets of 2-die)."

Given that high-capacity HBM4E Rubin Ultra has been delayed, I think MI550 can realistically compete with Rubin Ultra.


Summary: Google TPU8 ramp benefits Celestica, Inventec (share rising 10→30%), Foxconn, MediaTek, Quanta, and AVC in the ASIC server supply chain through 2026.

Exclusive: Google ramps new TPU servers, Taiwan suppliers gain share

Google's unveiling of its eighth-generation tensor processing unit (TPU) at Cloud Next 2026 is expected to drive the next wave of growth in the application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) server supply chain, with Taiwanese manufacturers expanding their role, according to supply chain sources.

Assembly partners, including Celestica and Foxconn, are expected to begin volume production in the second half of 2026. Key component suppliers such as Asia Vital Components and Cooler Master are preparing shipments by the end of the second quarter, with Inventec reportedly set to begin production earlier.

Taiwan gains share across supply chain
Taiwanese vendors are taking on a larger role in Google's TPU server ecosystem. While Broadcom has historically dominated upstream IC design, MediaTek has also entered the supply chain, according to sources.

In server motherboard production, Inventec's share is reportedly rising from about 10 to 30%, gradually taking orders from Celestica. The companies declined to comment.

Supply chain sources said Taiwanese firms remain competitive in terms of flexibility, quality, and pricing, supported by long-standing experience in server manufacturing. Inventec is currently the world's second-largest server motherboard supplier.

ASIC servers to outpace GPU growth
ASIC servers are expected to be the fastest-growing segment of the AI server market in 2026, outpacing systems based on GPUs led by Nvidia.

DIGITIMES Research estimates ASIC server shipments will grow 64.2% year-over-year in 2026, compared with 43.8% growth for GPU servers.

Industry sources said rising ASIC shipments are also likely to support demand for general-purpose servers. Google's continued investment in ASIC infrastructure is expected to benefit its primary general server assembler, Quanta Computer, in 2026.

Dual-chip TPU highlights shift to inference
Google's eighth-generation TPU introduces a dual-chip architecture for the first time, separating training and inference workloads.

The lineup includes TPU 8t for large-scale training and TPU 8i for low-latency inference. Both chips are expected to launch later in 2026, with shipments projected before year-end, according to supply chain estimates.

The move reflects a broader shift in AI development. Over the past three years, the industry has focused on large-scale training, but leading chipmakers, including Google and Nvidia, are placing greater emphasis on inference, indicating a widening range of AI applications.

Google remains key ASIC player
Google continues to be a major driver of ASIC-based AI infrastructure. DIGITIMES Research estimates the company will account for 46% of the ASIC accelerator market in 2026, with shipments reaching about 3.33 million units.

The TPU v7, code-named Ironwood, is expected to remain the main product, accounting for 89% of Google's total TPU shipments.

Industry sources said Celestica remains the primary assembly partner for TPU servers, but Taiwanese firms are expanding their role. This is most evident in CPU motherboard production, where Inventec's share is increasing, and in L10 to L11 assembly, where Foxconn is involved.

$CLS

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https://t.co/hHrcN2SlAp


Inventec's share is reportedly rising from about 10 to 30%

Inventec Corporation 2356.TW Taiwan server ODM


Hon Hai Precision (Foxconn) 2317.TW Taiwan


MediaTek has also entered the supply chain


Google's continued investment in ASIC infrastructure is expected to benefit its primary general server assembler, Quanta Computer, in 2026

Quanta Computer listed on TWSE as 2382.TW


Key component suppliers such as Asia Vital Components and Cooler Master are preparing shipments by the end of the second quarter

Asia Vital Components (AVC) 3017.TW Taiwan


expectations are growing that the Foundry division's swing to profitability will come sooner than anticipated

Summary: Samsung Foundry 4nm yield >80% triggers early-than-expected profitability swing; bullish for Samsung Electronics.

[Exclusive] Samsung Foundry’s 4nm Yield Crosses the ‘80% Threshold’… Head-to-Head Showdown with TSMC

Samsung Electronics’ Foundry division has pushed its 4-nanometer (nm, one-billionth of a meter) process yield past 80%, entering the technically refined “mature process” stage. With its technical completeness now on par with Taiwan’s TSMC — the world’s largest foundry — Samsung’s 4nm is drawing a flood of orders from global Big Tech. As a result, expectations are growing that the Foundry division’s swing to profitability will come sooner than anticipated.

According to industry sources on the 29th, Samsung Foundry’s 4nm process yield has recently surpassed 80%. Since mass production began in 2021, accumulated manufacturing know-how has lifted the mature-process yield to a world-class level.

With the 4nm node reaching maturity, global AI chip companies are also flocking to Samsung Foundry. Groq — acquired by Nvidia late last year — has entrusted production of its Language Processing Units (LPUs) entirely to Samsung Foundry’s 4nm. Groq has placed deep trust in Samsung, outsourcing everything from its first-generation LPU (LP1) three years ago through this year’s LP3. Other clients on Samsung’s 4nm process include U.S. Big Tech IBM, automotive chip specialist Ambarella, Chinese conglomerate Baidu, and Chinese mining rig maker Faraday. Domestic Korean AI chip fabless players Rebellions and FuriosaAI are likewise leveraging Samsung 4nm to accelerate product development.

Synergies between the Foundry and Memory divisions are also expanding. The Foundry division is exclusively manufacturing the “base die” for the 6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4), which Samsung Electronics has mass-produced as a world first. The Foundry division’s performance is in turn reinforcing the competitiveness of Samsung’s Memory division.

Accordingly, forecasts are emerging that Samsung Electronics’ non-memory businesses (Foundry and System LSI) could see an earnings turnaround as early as the second half. An industry source said, “The price of 12-inch wafers for HBM4 base dies has surged more than 50% from prior levels, exceeding $20,000 (roughly 30 million won) per wafer,” adding that “HBM4-related revenue could exceed 30 trillion won.“

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https://t.co/3tHQMHZnx2


This would be a major negative for Broadcom and MTK. Broadcom/MediaTek's per-chip margin would fall, if this is true. That makes me more worried about Broadcom than MediaTek.

Summary: Bearish Broadcom (more) and MediaTek (less) on rumored Google COT shift to Annapurna-like model, compressing per-chip margins to design service fees.

Rumor: Google to shift to a COT model starting with TPU v9, downgrading the role of MediaTek/Broadcom.

This would be a major negative for Broadcom and MTK.

According to this rumor, starting with TPU v9, Google plans to move to a model similar to AWS’s Annapurna, where Google directly places wafer orders with TSMC.

In other words, Google would be doing COT directly.

What does that mean? Google would become TSMC’s direct customer, while Broadcom and MediaTek would be downgraded to IP support / design service roles.

Ownership of the chip and control over supply would shift toward Google.

In other words, Broadcom/MediaTek’s per-chip margin would fall, if this is true.

Instead of recognizing the full chip ASP as revenue, the model would shift toward design service fees / margin. That makes me more worried about Broadcom than MediaTek.

$AVGO


This would be a major negative for Broadcom and MTK. Broadcom/MediaTek's per-chip margin would fall, if this is true.


现在 ABF 和 CCL 就跟去年9月的记忆体行情差不多

Summary: Sell-side analyst analogy: ABF substrates and CCL materials now mirror memory's inflection point in Sep 2024, implying a similar upward run ahead.

Chinese term for ABF substrate; same basket

@yiqifacai 卖方分析师提到，现在 ABF 和 CCL 就跟去年9月的记忆体行情差不多。你明白我现在在说什么吧？

在X泡着还赚不到钱是要反思的，满世界专家不是每天都在送钱吗？ https://t.co/hO9HTCgq46


现在 ABF 和 CCL 就跟去年9月的记忆体行情差不多

CCL material global basket: EMC, Unimicron, Ibiden


Target price raised to NT$2,850; reiterating the views from our March 25 TPU upgrade report… we raise our target price from NT$2,750 to NT$2,850 and reiterate our Buy rating

Summary: GF reiterates Buy on MediaTek, raises PT to NT$2,850 on Meta AR, OpenAI edge AI win potential, and TPU 8t ramp; AP Memory benefits as SRAM supplier for Meta AR glasses.

GF Overseas Electronics & Telecom
☄ MediaTek (2454 TT, Buy): Two More Things!

☀ What’s new? Meta!
Since we published our MediaTek report on March 25, MediaTek’s share price has risen 50%, driven by multiple brokerages upgrading the stock and highlighting its Google TPU potential, while our earnings forecasts remain the highest on the Street. We now see increasing opportunities for MediaTek to win more customers.

Regarding Meta, we are highly positive on its next-generation AR glasses. The product will use two SRAM chips supplied by AP Memory (6531 TT) and one SoC supplied by MediaTek, replacing Qualcomm, with mass production targeted for the end of 2027. Following the success of Meta’s Ray-Ban Display glasses, we expect this product to reach annual shipments of 6–7 million units.

On the ASIC side, we expect MediaTek management to continue emphasizing its second ASIC customer during the upcoming earnings call, and we believe the company is targeting the Astrid and Apollo projects.

☀ What’s new? OpenAI!
In addition to the new Meta catalyst, we now believe MediaTek is highly likely to win the bid for OpenAI’s edge AI project, as the product SKU is focused on the mid-range market. We expect the project to be an N3-based SoC — with the modem still undecided — and to fully integrate OpenAI’s AI model.

The bidding process is ongoing, with tape-out targeted for 1H27. Regardless of shipment volume, we believe the symbolic significance of this cooperation would be very positive, as it could open the door for MediaTek to pursue ASIC collaboration opportunities with OpenAI.
That said, MediaTek’s capabilities have, at least for now, been validated through the TPU 8t tape-out, and the company can offer multiple backend solutions — including CoWoS, EMIB, and InFO — to compete for ASIC projects in what is currently the industry bottleneck.

☀ Target price raised to NT$2,850; reiterating the views from our March 25 TPU upgrade report
We reiterate the core views from our March 25 report:

1. The early redesign issues for v8x, i.e. 8t, have been quickly resolved, and risk production is now targeted for May.
2. MediaTek’s v8x CoWoS capacity allocation for 2027 has been raised from 70,000 wafers to 160,000 wafers, corresponding to 3.2 million packaged chips.
3. Humufish has an ASP of US$15,000, with shipments reaching 3.5 million units by the end of 2028.
4. Intel’s EMIB can support 9x to 12x reticle-size packages, but constraints in silicon capacitors and substrates are worth monitoring.

Based on a minor earnings adjustment from raising the average selling price of TPU 8t to US$4,400, we raise our 2026/2027 EPS estimates by 1%/4%, respectively. Applying 25x 2027 P/E, we raise our target price from NT$2,750 to NT$2,850 and reiterate our Buy rating.


two SRAM chips supplied by AP Memory (6531 TT)… with mass production targeted for the end of 2027


Summary: DRAM supercycle extends well beyond 1H next year driven by NVIDIA SOCAMM/LPDDR5X demand; NAND also in shortage through 1H 2027 though less confident beyond that.

Global DRAM basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix

People who think the DRAM supercycle will end in 1H next year don't know what they're talking about.

The GB200 uses 17TB of SOCAMM2, but the VR200 uses over 50TB of SOCAMM2. That alone has NVIDIA hoovering up so much LPDDR5X that even smartphone OEMs are panic-buying — and do you know how much SOCAMM goes into the VR300? 220TB.

A lot of people have only been focused on the VR300's 1TB of HBM4E, but you need to look at the SOCAMM too. Once NVIDIA starts consuming 220TB of SOCAMM, the LPDDR shortage could become so severe that it reaches a point where OEMs can't build smartphones even if they want to.

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PS. As for NAND, I’m a bit skeptical. Samsung recently decided to build a new NAND fab at P5. There are also widespread rumors that even SK hynix may open a new NAND fab in China.

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PS. Even so, I think NAND itself could remain in shortage through the first half of 2027. After that, I’m not confident enough to make a firm call.


Once NVIDIA starts consuming 220TB of SOCAMM, the LPDDR shortage could become so severe that it reaches a point where OEMs can't build smartphones even if they want to

LPDDR5X made by SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron; no direct ticker


I think NAND itself could remain in shortage through the first half of 2027

Global NAND sector basket: dominant NAND producers


Summary: Bullish Nan Ya PCB: near-full ABF utilization, improving pricing, AI/HPC-driven ASP uplift, and sustained margin improvement over next 3–5 years.

Nan Ya PCB (NYPCB) listed on TWSE as 8046.TW

▶ Strong AI Momentum — Nan Ya PCB's ABF Capacity Near Full Utilization

- Nan Ya PCB's overall substrate utilization exceeds 90%, with ABF substrates effectively running at full capacity; Kunshan fab utilization expected to rise further this year

- Plans to drive H2 growth through product mix improvement amid tight capacity; future expansion to be flexibly adjusted based on customer demand

- Actively negotiating cost pass-through with customers in response to rising raw material prices (copper foil, precious metals); pricing environment for 2026 expected to improve vs. 2025

- High yields on advanced ABF substrates continue to offset cost increases, sustaining margin structure improvement

- Industry competitive dynamics shifting from long-term contract-driven to co-development with customers on high-complexity technologies, strengthening lock-in effects and raising barriers to entry

- Nan Ya PCB maintaining and growing its market position through expanding projects including TPUs

- AI/HPC demand driving substrate evolution toward higher layer counts (26–30+ layers) and larger form factors (140×140mm+), with concurrent increases in ASP and technical barriers

- Glass substrate technology remains in early development stages with near-term displacement of existing materials unlikely; ABF substrate-centric structure expected to persist over the next 3–5 years

- Continued earnings improvement driven by rising utilization and increasing mix of advanced products

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https://t.co/31yDTdZDGZ


Summary: Bullish BESI on expected TSMC SoIC order increase; endorses hybrid bonding monopoly thesis.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

这两天聊了不少先进封装，耗材和设备都过了一遍。正好花旗这周更新了BESI（BE Semiconductor Industries），也来聊聊。

BESI在Hybrid Bonding设备上的垄断地位没什么好争论的，目前全球唯一有量产交付能力的玩家。花旗将BESI https://t.co/OMb8AcXvMG


Summary: Bullish on KOSPI continuing to rally toward 7000.

국장 코스피 장중 6,900pt 돌파! 역사적 신고가 하루만에 갱신!

웅장하다! 연휴 끝나자마자 6,800pt 넘어 6,900pt까지 도달!

웅장하다 시리지는 계속된다!! https://t.co/xV40tIJxX0


ABF... 엄청난 상방이 있습니다

Summary: ABF 기판 섹터에 엄청난 상방 여력이 있다는 강한 강세 전망.

ABF substrate basket: Ibiden, Unimicron, EMC, Tripod

@jukan05 이러나 저러나 기판이 노나겠네요. MEC 화이팅 👀