Summary: Maintains Buy on Samsung & SK Hynix; bullish NAND theme benefits SNDK and MU on surging ASPs (mid-to-high 40% QoQ) and tightening supply-demand.

Kioxia: There Won't Be a Second Shock
[Daishin Securities Semiconductor / Ryu Hyung-geun]

This is a Kioxia FY3Q25 (CY4Q25) Review. We maintain our existing view that a surprise will emerge from NAND. This value needs to be further reflected in Korean semiconductor stock prices. We maintain our Buy recommendations on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Kioxia FY3Q25 (CY4Q25) Review: Please Forget Last November's Disaster

- Results were in line with consensus. The guidance was the surprise. The company issued guidance significantly above consensus, creating a markedly different atmosphere from last November's earnings release.

- Throughout the recent upcycle, Kioxia's high revenue concentration toward a single customer has been a double-edged sword. Pre-negotiated long-term contracts meant products were supplied at prices below market rates, which was the key reason behind Kioxia's lower ASP growth relative to peers.

- Recently, the company appears to have aggressively leveraged the tight supply-demand environment to push through price revisions. Starting from CY1Q26, the revised pricing policy is expected to take effect (estimated ~50% QoQ ASP increase for the North American customer in CY1Q26). This marks the moment Kioxia breaks free from its legacy constraints and the moment mobile NAND ASPs normalize.

- Opportunities are also expanding on the server side. On top of a favorable market backdrop, competitiveness in high-capacity products of 128TB and above is expected to drive outperformance.

NAND Is Just as Strong as DRAM

- AI inference is strengthening the role of storage and driving higher content per unit. In addition, new products are set to be unveiled. At the upcoming GTC 2026 event, new products based on a next-generation solution (Gen 6 Controller) are expected to be announced.

- The supply-demand balance is tightening to historically unprecedented levels. While concerns over weak set-level demand persist, opportunities in the server segment are more than offsetting them.

- Meanwhile, supply discipline is strengthening across the industry. The prevailing approach is to respond through conversion investments and product mix shifts—which carry lower depreciation burdens—rather than new capacity additions. This signals a management philosophy increasingly centered on profitability and long-term supply-demand stability.

- As a result, NAND ASPs are surging. 1Q26 NAND ASP is expected to rise in the mid-to-high 40% range QoQ, and we believe we will soon see operating margins reach the 50%+ levels that marked the previous peak.

$SNDK $MU


structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


NAND ASPs are surging. 1Q26 NAND ASP is expected to rise in the mid-to-high 40% range QoQ


Summary: NAND prices doubling Q1→Q2 with uptrend expected to persist; bullish Samsung, SK Hynix, and NAND pricing broadly.

NAND Now Commands Whatever Price It Wants… Samsung to Double Supply Prices in Q2

Samsung Electronics is reportedly set to raise its NAND flash supply prices by approximately 100% in the second quarter. The company has been cutting NAND production to focus on high-value products such as High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), while surging global AI investment has driven a sharp spike in demand for NAND, the storage memory segment.

According to industry sources on the 6th, Samsung Electronics — the world's largest NAND supplier — has decided to set its Q2 price increase at a level similar to Q1. Samsung is said to have already raised NAND prices by approximately 100% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, meaning that by Q2, Samsung's NAND supply prices will have roughly doubled compared to late last year.

Final supply prices may vary slightly by customer, but the industry does not expect Samsung's decided increase to deviate significantly in practice. A senior semiconductor industry executive noted, "Memory manufacturers now hold unprecedented negotiating leverage, so buyers will have little choice but to accept Samsung's asking prices. SK Hynix, Kioxia, and other producers are also preparing additional price hikes."

Major NAND makers have indeed been raising prices in unison, led by Samsung. According to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the average fixed contract price for 128Gb MLC NAND — a mainstream commodity product — surged to $12.67 last month, up 33.9% from the prior month and a staggering 452.3% higher than a year ago.

The steep price trajectory reflects NAND's growing role as AI evolves from the training phase into inference, where systems must process and respond to user requests in real time, requiring massive data storage at scale. Surging investment in AI data centers by Big Tech is further fueling storage demand.

With Samsung and SK Hynix — the #1 and #2 NAND suppliers — having sharply curtailed NAND output to prioritize high-margin products like HBM, the price uptrend is expected to persist for the foreseeable future.

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https://t.co/qcgLzu1iSp


SK Hynix, Kioxia, and other producers are also preparing additional price hikes


Summary: Shares/endorses GF Buy on Broadcom with raised PT $450 on higher TPU shipment forecasts.

So....

1. MediaTek will ship only 400,000 TPUs this year.

2. MediaTek’s Zebrafish has not even entered testing yet.

3. AMD will use AVGO’s CPO? https://t.co/yd61AZSoiv

GF Overseas Electronics & Communications
☄ Broadcom (AVGO US Buy): Raising 2027 TPU Forecast

☀ Maintain Buy; raise target price to US$450:
We forecast total TPU shipments to reach 4.5 million units in 2026 and 7.9 million units in 2027, above our previous estimates of 4.5


Xiaomi (1810 HK, Buy): Stress Test... we lower our target price from HK$52 to HK$45, based on a SOTP valuation implying 32x/27x 2026E/2027E P/E

Summary: GF Securities reiterates Buy on Xiaomi with PT cut to HK$45 from HK$52; memory cost and EV demand headwinds weigh but Buy maintained.

《GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Telecom》 Xiaomi (1810 HK, Buy): Stress Test

Target price lowered to HK$45.0: Xiaomi's share price is down 11% YTD and 12% over the past three months, primarily pressured by rising memory prices and softening EV demand in China. We believe Xiaomi is entering a "stress test" phase, and investors are unlikely to re-engage with the stock until signs of a slowdown in the memory upcycle emerge or the company demonstrates margin resilience. Per TrendForce, memory price increases have exceeded expectations significantly, meaning the most acute impact on Xiaomi's smartphone gross margins will materialize in 1Q26/2Q26 — we await signals of price moderation driven by highly conservative consumer demand and capacity releases from CXMT. Accordingly, we cut our 2025/2026 smartphone shipment estimates to 165M/147.5M units; combined with lower gross margin assumptions and broader EV market demand softness, we reduce earnings estimates by 10% and 33% respectively, and lower our target price from HK$52 to HK$45, based on a SOTP valuation implying 32x/27x 2026E/2027E P/E.

4Q25 results preview — adjusted net profit estimated at RMB 5.2bn: IDC data shows Xiaomi's 4Q25 shipments at 37.8M units, down 13% QoQ and 11% YoY, pressured by rising costs and weakening demand. Factoring in soft IoT performance, in-line internet services, and EV deliveries of 146K units, we estimate 4Q25 revenue of RMB 114bn, up 1% QoQ and 4% YoY. Overall gross margin is expected to decline to 20.7%, down 2.2ppt QoQ, dragged by smartphone gross margin of 8.1% and EV gross margin of 22.5%, resulting in adjusted net profit of RMB 5.2bn, down 54% QoQ and 38% YoY — broadly in line with already-lowered consensus. On the EV side, deliveries recovered to 146K units in 4Q25; however, due to a significant decline in the Ultra model mix and promotional discounts, we estimate gross margin fell to 22.5% (vs. 25.5% in the prior quarter) and expect margins to remain near this level in the near-to-medium term.

Memory cost stress test: Per TrendForce and our estimates, LPDDR5X prices are expected to rise 45%/91% QoQ in 4Q25/1Q26, primarily driven by server applications crowding out supply, while eMMC prices are expected to rise 35%/60% QoQ — placing enormous pressure on smartphone OEM gross margins. Although the pace of price increases may moderate in 2Q26, memory prices will remain elevated. To mitigate margin pressure, we expect Xiaomi — which holds some memory inventory — to optimize its product mix, maintain lean inventories, and selectively downgrade eMMC specs on lower-end handsets. Nevertheless, accounting for inventory drawdowns, we project Xiaomi's smartphone gross margin will fall to 8.1% in 4Q25 and bottom out near this level through the current cycle.


Samsung Electronics will become the world's first to mass-produce and ship the next-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), HBM4 — a 'game changer' for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors with the world's highest performance — after the Lunar New Year holiday

Summary: Shares report that Samsung is first to mass-produce HBM4, shipping to NVIDIA post-Lunar New Year with 11.7 Gbps performance and 3x HBM sales growth expected YoY; implied bullish on stock.

Samsung Electronics to Begin World's First HBM4 Mass Production After Lunar New Year Holiday…Seizing Initiative in Next-Generation Market

Samsung Electronics will become the world's first to mass-produce and ship the next-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), HBM4—a 'game changer' for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors with the world's highest performance—after the Lunar New Year holiday.

This strategy aims to overcome the setbacks with previous-generation products that sparked crisis concerns in its semiconductor business, seize the initiative in the next-generation market, and solidify its position as the world's number one memory manufacturer.

According to industry sources on the 8th, Samsung Electronics has decided to begin mass production shipments of HBM4 to NVIDIA after this Lunar New Year holiday, possibly as early as the third week of this month.

Samsung Electronics passed quality tests with NVIDIA early on and received purchase orders (PO), and reportedly finalized this schedule after comprehensively considering NVIDIA's launch plans for the 'Vera Rubin' AI accelerator that will incorporate HBM4.

The volume of HBM4 samples Samsung Electronics is supplying for customer product module testing is also observed to have expanded significantly with this PO.

NVIDIA is expected to unveil 'Vera Rubin' featuring Samsung Electronics' HBM4 for the first time at its technology conference 'GTC 2026' next month.

This marks the world's first mass production shipment of next-generation HBM4.

Moreover, Samsung Electronics' HBM4 is evaluated as having world-class performance.

From the start of HBM4 development, Samsung Electronics set its goal to achieve top performance exceeding JEDEC (international semiconductor standards organization) standards.

Accordingly, it made the bold move of simultaneously applying 1c (10nm-class 6th generation) DRAM and 4nm foundry process to this HBM4.

With this industry-unique process combination, Samsung Electronics' HBM4 achieves data processing speeds of up to 11.7 Gbps (gigabits per second), surpassing the JEDEC standard of 8Gbps.

This represents a 37% improvement over the JEDEC standard and 22% over the previous generation HBM3E (9.6Gbps).

Additionally, Samsung Electronics' HBM4 achieves memory bandwidth of up to 3TB/s per single stack, a 2.4-fold improvement over its predecessor, and offers capacity of up to 36GB with 12-layer stacking technology.

Future application of 16-layer stacking technology could enable capacity expansion up to 48GB.

It can significantly reduce power consumption and cooling costs for servers and data centers through low-power design while maximizing computational performance.

Samsung Electronics, as the world's only semiconductor company capable of providing one-stop solutions encompassing logic, memory, foundry, and packaging, plans to leverage the synergy between its advanced memory and foundry process capabilities to deliver top-tier HBM performance.

The company also expects HBM sales volume to increase more than threefold year-over-year this year and has decided to install new production lines at its Pyeongtaek Campus Plant 4 to expand HBM production capacity.

Following the achievement of stable yields despite applying cutting-edge processes and commencing mass production shipments, yields are expected to improve further as production scales up.

Furthermore, Samsung Electronics is likely to establish optimal HBM4 production plans based on thorough review of overall memory market conditions.

In a situation where prices are soaring not only for HBM but all memory products, the company intends to efficiently distribute and utilize its world's largest production capacity.

This confidence is also based on the belief that Samsung Electronics can control market share while maintaining leadership, given that its HBM4 enters the market first with top performance.

An industry official stated, "Samsung Electronics, with the world's largest production capacity and most diverse product lineup, has proven its restored technological competitiveness through the world's first mass production of top-performance HBM4," adding, "Building on this foundation, it will be able to lead the market from the most advantageous position."

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https://t.co/22hXlZ79VT


Reiterate Buy Rating, Raise Target Price to $286: We recommend continuing to stay long NVIDIA, with key drivers being strong H200 demand and an unchanged Vera Rubin 200 (VR200) timeline

Summary: GF Securities reiterates Buy on NVDA, raises PT to $286 on H200 demand + VR200 ramp; also reiterates Buy on AVGO.

GF Securities Overseas Electronics Communication

☄ NVIDIA (NVDA US Buy): Upside Potential from H200, Followed by a Leap with Vera Rubin [Report Uploaded]

☀ Reiterate Buy Rating, Raise Target Price to $286: NVIDIA’s stock has declined 11% from its November peak last year, driven primarily by concerns over Google competition, OpenAI models and financing, and fears of an AI bubble. However, recent investor feedback indicates signs of reversal in the prior “long Google TPU, short OpenAI/NVIDIA” pair trade. We recommend continuing to stay long NVIDIA, with key drivers being strong H200 demand and an unchanged Vera Rubin 200 (VR200) timeline—both critical to widening its product leadership. In the near term, we expect revenue upside to be driven by H200, where we have observed significant demand and emerging supply-chain build-up plans. Incorporating H200 shipment volumes, we raise FY26/FY27 EPS by 0% and 6%, respectively, and increase the target price from $270 to $286, still based on 36x FY27 P/E.

☀ Both Gemini and OpenAI Provide Positive Signals:

Google: DeepMind VP Oriol Vinyals stated that Gemini 3’s strength stems from pre-training and post-training improvements, implying that major performance gains are still possible through pre-training mechanisms without increasing parameter counts—this suggests continued scaling benefits in pre-training can drive significant model progress.
OpenAI: User feedback on the latest GPT-5.2 is mixed, but investors are more focused on the upcoming new model trained on Blackwell. On the financing front, The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI is seeking a funding round of up to $100 billion at an $830 billion valuation, and our investor conversations reflect high optimism. With a potential post-funding IPO on the horizon, we expect concerns around OpenAI to ease.

☀ Strong Demand Leads to Upward Revision of H200 CoWoS Capacity Plans: Bloomberg reported on January 8 that China is expected to approve H200 purchases this quarter. Accordingly, we raise TSMC’s CoWoS-S capacity build-up plan by 30,000 wafers, primarily in 2Q26, implying roughly 800,000 H200 units. Combined with approximately 700,000 units in inventory, we estimate the current H200 shipment plan at around 1.5 million units. Factoring in a discount for policy uncertainty, we now forecast H200 volumes of 250k / 450k / 1.1 million units for the April quarter, July quarter, and FY2027, respectively. This translates to total sales of $74 billion / $89.5 billion for the April and July quarters, exceeding consensus by 4% and 14%. We concur with Reuters’ December 30 report that orders exceed 2 million units, with major customers accounting for roughly 40%.

☀ VR200 Moves to Full Production, Enhancing Product Competitiveness: At CES 2026, Jensen Huang stated that Vera Rubin delivers 5× higher inference performance and 3.5× higher training performance compared to Blackwell. Relative to Google’s TPU, Vera Rubin is expected to significantly outperform TPU v7 (targeted at Blackwell) and likely lead v8AX as well. While we remain positive on Broadcom (AVGO Buy) and highlighted potential TPU external sales since August last year, we believe external customers will be limited to non-Tier-1 CSPs such as Anthropic—contrary to the market view of broad adoption including Meta—due to AI competition dynamics and the TPU software learning curve. On timing, we reiterate that VR200 will start production in June, followed by a full ramp in 3Q26.

$NVDA


we remain positive on Broadcom (AVGO Buy)


Summary: Shares/endorses GF Securities Buy on NVDA with raised PT $286 on H200 upside and Vera Rubin catalyst.

GF Securities Overseas Electronics Communication

☄ NVIDIA (NVDA US Buy): Upside Potential from H200, Followed by a Leap with Vera Rubin [Report Uploaded]

☀ Reiterate Buy Rating, Raise Target Price to $286: NVIDIA’s stock has declined 11% from its November peak last year,


Summary: Strong long on TSMC; rigorous supply-chain checks confirm demand is not a bubble, author endorses the bull case.

CC Wei’s comment about being “scared by the scale” should basically be taken as a light joke to shift the tone of the call in the moment. What we should focus on is that, after conducting extremely rigorous supply-chain checks—including validating demand all the way down to their customers’ customers—TSMC has concluded that the demand we’re seeing right now is not a bubble.

TSMC is also well known for having an outstanding analyst team. Many former TSMC analysts have continued to build excellent track records across the semiconductor industry.

Don’t bet against TSMC!

If they did it on purpose, it’s moral hazard; if they didn’t know, it’s incompetence!!

@theinformation Shame on you!!


We are currently passing through the most favorable risk-reward phase of the memory cycle. We define the inflection point as the moment when the rate of investment growth exceeds the rate of earnings growth, which we expect to occur after 2027. In the near term, caution is warranted around 3Q as the pace of DRAM price increases decelerates. However, given the durability of earnings, any correction is likely to be temporary.

Summary: Bullish MU: most favorable risk-reward phase of memory cycle now; supply inflection not until 2027, any near-term correction on DRAM price deceleration seen as temporary.

Micron Actively Refutes HBM4 Disqualification Rumors

[Samsung Securities Semiconductor, IT / Jong-wook Lee]

Micron held a conference call to address the HBM4 disqualification controversy, and its stock rose 10%.
How should we interpret this?

1. What Micron Said
1.Guidance: Noted that DRAM price increases will drive results above what was indicated at the December 2025 earnings call. No specific figures provided.
2. DRAM market: Some customers are receiving only 50–66% of requested volumes. HBM is sold out. LTA (long-term agreement) commitments expanding. Inventory levels are very lean.
3. AI technology: AI demand is driving an increasing share of HBM and high-performance LPDDR. Hyperscaler capex is expected to reach $800 billion. CY26 server demand growth in the mid-teens percent (maintaining prior guidance).
4. HBM4: HBM4 shipments have begun — one quarter ahead of prior guidance.
5. NAND: Gaining NAND market share in both TLC and QLC.
6. New capacity additions: Idaho (ID1) to come online mid-2027, Taiwan Taoyuan (P5) by end of 2027, Singapore NAND fab in 2H 2028.
7.HBM’s capacity cannibalization effect: As HBM generations advance, wafer cannibalization intensifies, exacerbating memory supply shortages.

2. Implications of Micron’s Comments
1.HBM4: Micron aggressively countered market rumors of HBM4 disqualification by using the phrase “shipments have begun.” However, we still believe Micron’s shipments are limited to lower tranches with modest volumes, and its market share will decline year-over-year. Starting with HBM4E, Micron’s competitiveness could recover as it adopts foundry-based base dies. The equity market appears largely indifferent to the HBM competitive dynamics.
2. Bullish market outlook: Profits ultimately come from the commodity business. The company officially flagged DRAM price increases and strong earnings, and the market is cheering robust demand and consecutive earnings surprises.
3. Timing of the supply inflection point: Micron’s investments will not impact supply until mid-2027. Until then, the company has limited strategic options to address high-end, AI-driven demand.

3. Our View
1.We are currently passing through the most favorable risk-reward phase of the memory cycle. We define the inflection point as the moment when the rate of investment growth exceeds the rate of earnings growth, which we expect to occur after 2027.
2. In the near term, caution is warranted around 3Q as the pace of DRAM price increases decelerates. However, given the durability of earnings, any correction is likely to be temporary.

Thank you.
(Published 2/12/2026)
$MU


Summary: GF Securities initiates bullish thesis on EMC: above-consensus EPS forecasts for 2026/2027, PT NT$3,499 on AI CCL capacity expansion and margin recovery from 2Q26.

CCL context: EMC = Elite Material Co. 2383.TW not US EMC

《GF Securities Overseas Electronics & Communications》

☄ EMC 4Q25 Review: AI CCL to Accelerate from 2Q Onward

☀ Aggressive Capacity Expansion; Profitability Structure to Improve in 2Q: EMC announced aggressive CCL capacity expansion plans on its 4Q25 earnings call, targeting monthly capacity of 9.45 million sheets — a 54% increase from its current 2026 monthly capacity of 6.15 million sheets. Meanwhile, EMC's 4Q25 gross margin declined 1.5ppt due to an AI platform transition. Although upstream raw material costs (particularly copper and fiberglass) surged significantly in 1Q26, we believe price increases will materially alleviate margin pressure from 2Q26 onward. Our supply chain checks indicate that M7+ material price hike negotiations stalled in 1Q26, as PCB customers were unable to renegotiate pricing for existing AI products. However, as new AI platforms ramp in 2Q26, new PCB pricing should support at least a 10% price increase on EMC's AI CCL. Based on the combination of price increases and capacity expansion, we forecast EMC's 2026/2027 EPS at NT$78.65/139.96, representing 12.0%/24.9% above consensus. We set our target price at NT$3,499, based on 25x FY2027E P/E.

☀ New Platforms Ramping Gradually from 2Q:

1. AWS: The T3 platform begins ramping in 2Q26, with volumes expected to recover to 3Q25 run-rate levels; EMC holds ~90% market share.

2. Google: Google's TPUv7 switch boards use M8 materials, with EMC capturing ~80% market share — significantly higher than the sub-30% share on prior platforms. Google became EMC's largest AI customer in 1Q26, with monthly shipments exceeding 800,000 sheets.

3. NVIDIA: The Rubin platform's midplane transitions to M9 materials and begins ramping in 2Q26; EMC remains the second-tier supplier for switch trays. EMC's revenue growth is expected to accelerate in 2Q, driven by the new AI platform ramps.

☀ CCL Material Upgrades Continue to Progress: The Rubin platform midplane upgrades to M9, and driven by higher data throughput and signal integrity requirements, switch trays are also expected to adopt M9 materials alongside the introduction of CPX boards. Looking ahead to Rubin Ultra, CCL is expected to fully transition to M9, and the Kyber platform midplane should meaningfully increase CCL content value. Additionally, M10-grade CCL samples for the Feynman platform are expected to begin qualification in 2Q26. On the ASIC side, new M9 design wins are also emerging in products such as Google TPUv8e/p. The ongoing CCL material upgrade cycle should benefit EMC, given its industry-leading R&D pace.


Summary: China approving Nvidia H200 purchases as soon as this quarter — bullish catalyst for NVDA near-term.

*CHINA TO APPROVE SOME NVIDIA H200 PURCHASES AS SOON AS THIS QTR

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https://t.co/J48u4eniEm


Summary: Nomura reiterates Buy on Unimicron, raises TP to TWD418 (+53%) on AI substrate bottleneck cycle; also carries Buy on TSMC and Resonac.

Unimicron Technology listed on TWSE as 3037.TW

Nomura: Unimicron Technology reiterate Buy with a higher TP of TWD418, implying ~53% upside

Recently, TSMC (2330 TT, Buy) announced record capex (USD52-56bn) for 2026E, well-above consensus of USD48-50bn, on booming AI demand (report), and Resonac (4004 JP, Buy) announced to raise its prices for all kinds of CCLs and PPs by 30%, effective 1 March, given the tight supply of T-glass and E-glass, and rising costs (link). We think the announcements indicate faster-than-expected demand growth for AI chips; and, the challenging supply-demand (S-D) situation for key materials and cost increases have led to earlier and faster price hikes of materials. We believe this will likely drive more price hikes for both BT and ABF substrates in the coming months. We expect the substrate bottlenecks will likely shift from the current T-glass level to the ABF substrate level from late-2026F to 2028F. We raise our earnings by 7.8%/24.0% for 2026F/27F, on stronger AI growth and faster price hikes. We raise TP to TWD418, based on 25x 2027F EPS of 16.72 (vs prior TWD270, on 20x 2027F EPS of TWD13.5). We raise our target PE from 20x to 25x, at the high end of its historical band (7-25x), as we are in the early stage of the bull cycle. The stock currently trades at 16x 2027F EPS of TWD16.72.

T-glass S-D worsening, despite some supply additions from 1Q26F. The bottleneck could shift to “ABF substrate” level from late-2026, and worsen in 2027-28F

In our 2 Dec report, we had highlighted that T-glass shortage, the root cause of substrate material shortage, will likely continue for another year, until end-2026F, and Nittobo (3110 JP, Not rated) is converting some low-Dk/Df glass for PCB to support T-glass for substrate from late-1Q26F. However, despite increased supply, of late, the T-glass S-D gap continues to deteriorate into 2Q-3Q26F, as demand growth from AI is even faster. TSMC’s surging capex also implies tighter S-D dynamics for “ABF substrates” in 2027-28F; while T-glass supply bottlenecks may ease after Nittobo completes its 2-3x capacity expansion in 1H27F. ABF substrate expansion lags T-glass expansion through 2027F. Meanwhile, E-glass lead time has doubled from 8 weeks to 16 weeks, and we expect E-glass supply will likely deteriorate sharply in the coming months, underpinned by Resonac’s price hikes for both T-glass and E-glass CCLs. The potential E-glass shortage stems from many glass fiber cloth makers shifting production from E-glass to T-glass — and the conversion takes 6 months with less output, while new supplier/product qualifications could take another 3-4 months (if not longer). This indicates unavailability of glass fiber cloth capacity for 10-12 months.


TSMC (2330 TT, Buy) announced record capex (USD52-56bn) for 2026E, well-above consensus


Resonac (4004 JP, Buy) announced to raise its prices for all kinds of CCLs and PPs by 30%

Resonac Holdings (formerly Showa Denko) listed on TSE as 4004.T


Summary: Shares UBS thesis: Samsung back to peak DRAM profitability, FCF surging, $30.7B special dividend possible — implicitly bullish.

"This would propel FCF to Won105tn in 2026E, and could pave the way for Won45tn of exceptional dividend."

UBS expects Samsung to pay $30.7 billion in special dividends this year alone (paid separately from its regular recurring dividends).

That’s insane.

UBS: Samsung Electronics
Back to peak DRAM profitability in earnest

DDR and NAND contract pricing off to a roaring start
4Q25 DRAM blended ASPs ended up stronger than we initially expected post prelims (link), as Samsung successfully raised server DRAM contract pricing by about


Summary: Samsung HBM revenue tripled YoY in Q1, DRAM sold out, Q1 operating profit forecast at KRW 40T — bullish into next week's earnings.

Exclusive: Samsung HBM Revenue Triples… Operating Profit Nearing $26.33B

Samsung Electronics has confirmed that its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue more than tripled year-over-year in Q1 this year, riding the global wave of artificial intelligence (AI) investment. With conventional DRAM already sold out through next year's volumes and HBM orders surging, forecasts are gaining traction that Samsung Electronics could become the first Korean company to post quarterly operating profit of KRW 40 trillion.

A source with direct knowledge of Samsung Electronics said on the 30th, "Samsung's Q1 HBM revenue grew by more than 300%," adding that "it was driven by a sharp increase in supply volumes to NVIDIA." Samsung Electronics is set to report its Q1 earnings next week.

Samsung Electronics has seen a vertical rise in HBM-related revenue since it began supplying its 5th-generation HBM3E to NVIDIA in the second half of last year. In February this year, it became the first in the world to begin mass production of 6th-generation HBM4, which will be mounted on NVIDIA's next-generation AI accelerator "Vera Rubin."

With conventional DRAM prices (based on DDR4 8Gb) rising approximately tenfold compared to Q1 last year, combined with the surge in high-margin HBM revenue, the possibility is being raised that Samsung Electronics could exceed KRW 120 trillion in revenue and KRW 40 trillion in operating profit in Q1. An industry source expressed confidence, saying, "We expect Samsung's Q1 operating profit to come in at around KRW 40 trillion."

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https://t.co/TljOqZ5o1A


Summary: Bernstein reiterates Market-Perform on INTC with $36 PT; estimates below consensus, sidelined on fundamentals/valuation despite positive sentiment.

Bernstein: Intel Earnings Preview

For Intel, we up our server market assumptions but lower our PC assumptions going forward; overall our estimates move up slightly. We now model Q425 at $13.5B/$0.10, up from $13.3B/$0.08 prior, and slightly above consensus at $13.4B/$0.09. For Q126 we now model $12.2B/$0.04, mostly unchanged, and below consensus at $12.5B/$0.07.

For this year (2026) we now model $52.9B/$0.47, up from $51.9B/$0.41 prior, and below consensus at $54.1B/$0.62. For next year (2027), we now model $56.4B/$0.68, up from $55.9B/$0.64 prior, and below consensus at $56.7B/$1.09.

Sentiment on Intel has certainly turned upward in recent weeks amid the 18A launch, foundry hopes, and (yes) Presidential tweets. On the positive market dynamics at least in servers seem supportive, getting 18A out the door helps the narrative, and of course the favor of the administration helps. At the same time, however, share losses seem ripe to continue, supply constraints seem more due to customers opting for older products vs new, and while it feels like beating a dead horse we still believe CPUs have been over-shipping PCs for some time (perhaps this will all come to a head amid potential PC headwinds this year). In the meantime 18A yields (while presumably improving) likely have quite a ways to go, and a bigger decision to go in on foundry is going to have to be accompanied by higher capex. And Street estimates appear to mis-model SCIP-related NCI with overall numbers going forward still looking high to us. Fundamentals and valuation keep us sidelined even amid Trump's blessing. Bumping PT to $36 on higher numbers; MP.

$INTC


Summary: Bullish NVDA: dismisses H100 price-drop narrative, noting even A100 prices are rising.

How about we stop with the bullshit about H100 prices dropping already? Even A100 prices are going up?

$NVDA https://t.co/K4ir0Zvksu


Summary: HBM3E prices surging 50%+ on AI demand; supply constraints persist into 2026, keeping prices elevated — bullish for Samsung and SK Hynix.

China Exports & AI Competition Heat Up… HBM Prices Hike by 50%

As the competition for artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy among global big tech companies intensifies, the prices of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) semiconductors, a key component, are soaring. Although Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recently raised HBM prices by more than 50%, selling prices continue to skyrocket as big tech firms keep demanding larger volumes.

According to the semiconductor industry on the 26th, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are proposing prices that are more than 50% higher when renewing contracts for HBM3E 12-layer products with existing clients. It is also reported that new customers must offer even higher prices to secure volume.

While the HBM3E 12-layer was known to be around the $300 range per chip, companies that recently renewed contracts are understood to be paying in the $500 range. This implies that the market price of HBM3E has effectively jumped to the level of the next-generation product, HBM4.

HBM, made by stacking DRAM, has seen its value fly high as global prices for general-purpose DRAM have risen since the second half of this year. Particularly, with the AI performance competition among big tech firms catching fire recently, industry insiders are even going as far as to say that prices are "skyrocketing."

OpenAI's GPT and Google's Gemini, which are at the center of the AI performance competition, released their latest versions this month, each claiming superior performance. Additionally, xAI, created by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, recently unveiled the 'Grok Voice Agent' surpassing the performance of Google and OpenAI, while Anthropic's Claude and China's DeepSeek AI also released new versions to advance their capabilities. To improve AI chip performance, high-performance, low-power memory—HBM3E—is essential for all of them.

The United States is also fueling the rise in HBM prices. As the Donald Trump administration allowed the export of Nvidia's AI chip 'H200' to China this month, the prices of even the HBM3E 8-layer products equipped in the H200 are rising.

The trend of high HBM prices is highly likely to continue into next year. Samsung Electronics is converting NAND flash production lines to DRAM lines, but with HBM4 mass production scheduled for next February, expanding supply volume is a challenging situation. SK Hynix will also be able to supply new volume only after its M15X plant in Cheongju begins mass production in the second half of next year. An industry official predicted, "Due to the shortage of supply compared to increasing demand, the rise in HBM prices will continue for the time being next year as well."

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https://t.co/cIkhqYNewi


Summary: DRAM supply shortage expected through at least 2028-2030 as CAPA grows only 4.8%/yr while AI demand surges; shortage may become structural.

DRAM sector basket: Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix

Someone asked me today how long the DRAM supply shortage would last... I answered 2028, but I may need to revise that answer.

According to SEMI's data, while AI infrastructure investment is expanding rapidly each year, DRAM production capacity (CAPA) is expected to grow at a relatively low annual rate of just 4.8% from last year through 2030.

What's more, even this incremental capacity will be concentrated on HBM, meaning supply for legacy and special-purpose DRAM will be even more constrained.

Perhaps... DRAM being in short supply may become the new normal.


Short-term share price correction is a buying opportunity… We maintain a positive outlook on Micron… Micron's earnings are expected to continue trending upward

Summary: Shares Korea Investment & Securities Buy thesis on MU: HBM4 delay immaterial, commodity DRAM/NAND ASP upside drives 2026 earnings higher; dip is a buying opportunity.

Micron Technology: It's Okay If HBM4 Is a Bit Delayed – Chae Min-suk, Korea Investment & Securities

Micron's HBM4 schedule delay is inevitable
- Micron's stock weakened after SemiAnalysis reported it would adjust Micron's share in NVIDIA's HBM4 to 0%
- However, we had already updated in our August 2025 report that Micron's HBM4 schedule would be delayed due to HBM4 speed upgrade issues
- Our HBM model already adjusted Micron's 2026 HBM4 market share to around 1%, factoring in redesign and sample schedule delays

Impact on earnings expected to be minimal
- The delay in Micron's HBM4 is not expected to significantly impact earnings
- This is because most of the upside in the 2026 memory market will be driven by commodity DRAM and NAND ASP increases
- As of Q4 2025, commodity DRAM operating margins likely already exceeded HBM operating margins
- Unlike HBM, where prices are determined on an annual basis, commodity DRAM ASPs are rising significantly on a quarterly basis, meaning the share of commodity DRAM in revenue and operating profit will expand considerably in 2026 compared to 2025
- According to our HBM model, HBM is estimated to account for 9% of Micron's DRAM by volume, 11% by revenue, and approximately 8% of DRAM operating profit in 2026
- Additionally, the current tight supply environment will also work in Micron's favor
- Even if Micron cannot supply HBM4, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have limited additional supply capacity due to constrained capacity
- While market entry for HBM4 may be limited in 2026, full-scale supply should be possible from 2027 onward following the submission of improved samples

Short-term share price correction is a buying opportunity
- We maintain a positive outlook on Micron
- HBM remains a strategically important product, but its contribution to earnings in 2026 is relatively less significant compared to 2025
- In particular, the current tight supply environment limits competitors' ability to expand supply further, serving as a floor for Micron's earnings
- Data center memory demand will translate into rising commodity DRAM ASPs, and based on this, Micron's earnings are expected to continue trending upward

$MU


Summary: Samsung foundry expected to outperform YoY as Chinese fabless clients return with non-regulated chip orders and diversify away from TSMC.

Signs of Thawing U.S.-China Tensions: Chinese Fabless Firms Increase Orders to Samsung Foundry

"Last year, many Chinese clients utilizing Samsung Electronics’ foundry services frequently abandoned their projects just prior to mass production. This was primarily due to the high level of uncertainty caused by peak U.S. regulatory pressure on China. However, we expect a different landscape this year."

An industry official shared this insight on the 26th, identifying the U.S.-China conflict as the primary factor behind the slump in Samsung's foundry performance last year.

According to industry sources, Samsung Foundry faced significant hurdles in securing Chinese clients during the first half of last year as U.S. semiconductor export controls tightened. During this period, extreme regulatory uncertainty led a succession of Chinese fabless companies to halt projects or defer decisions immediately before the mass production phase.

"The first half of last year was exceptionally challenging," another industry representative noted. "Many cases resulted in the forced abandonment of mass production due to U.S. sanctions."

At that time, the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) under the U.S. Department of Commerce had intensified export controls on China, focusing on chips for AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC). Consequently, concerns arose that certain chips slated for production at Samsung Foundry might fall under these regulations. These products were reportedly advanced-process chips equipped with High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

This situation weighed heavily on Samsung Foundry's financial performance. Industry insiders suggest that had these projects transitioned to mass production, the foundry division's revenue might have significantly improved, potentially outperforming the System LSI division.

A Turnaround in Late 2023: Re-approaching via 'Non-Regulated' Chips
The industry consensus is that the atmosphere began to shift in the second half of last year. As U.S. regulatory criteria became more specific, inquiries and orders from Chinese customers began to rebound, focusing on chip specifications that do not directly fall under the scope of the restrictions.

Specifically, there is a visible move toward re-evaluating Samsung Foundry for general-purpose and low-power chipsets, which carry less regulatory burden compared to high-performance AI accelerators or HBM-integrated chips.

"Starting from the latter half of last year, Chinese clients have been knocking on our doors again with designs and applications that can bypass regulations," said an industry source. "Compared to the first half, the sales environment is showing signs of stabilization."

Heightened Expectations for Samsung Foundry Amid TSMC’s Geopolitical Risks
There are growing forecasts that Samsung Foundry will post better results this year than in previous years. This is largely driven by Chinese fabless firms seeking Samsung as a viable alternative due to the geopolitical risks associated with relying on Taiwan's TSMC.

As the U.S.-China rivalry persists alongside ongoing geopolitical instability in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese companies are feeling the pressure of over-reliance on a single production region. In this context, Samsung Foundry is being re-evaluated as a practical and strategic alternative.

A representative from a domestic design house stated, "Recently, we’ve seen a surge of interest in Samsung Foundry from Chinese clients. We anticipate a much stronger momentum this year compared to last."

However, the U.S.-China technological hegemony race and export restrictions remain critical variables. Experts believe Samsung Foundry's success this year will depend on its ability to manage risks in the Chinese market while simultaneously expanding its non-Chinese customer base.

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https://t.co/n9IlxYI2It


Summary: Reiterates bullish ASML thesis: record orders, fully booked 26/27 capacity, targets 40-50x forward PE as equipment market turns into seller's market.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

《GF Securities Overseas Electronics Communication》- ASML Performance Commentary

🌟Event: ASML released its 4Q performance, with 4Q25 revenue of €9.7bn and a gross margin of 52.2%. On the other hand, the company's orders greatly exceeded expectations, with new orders amounting to €13.2bn (vs. market expectation of 8bn+, Guangfa forecast of 10bn🌹). Among the new orders, €7.4bn was for EUV. The company expects full-year revenue for 2026 to be €34-39bn. Additionally, ASML announced a €12 euro stock repurchase plan, which will be executed by December 31, 2028.

🌟Commentary: The company's orders greatly exceeded expectations, with TSMC, storage, and China all showing significant upward revisions. We see that ASML's 26/27 capacity has been fully booked, and the semiconductor equipment market has turned into a seller's market. We continue to be optimistic about the super cycle of global semiconductor equipment, and ASML is also expected to return to the 40-50x forward PE of the 2020-2022 shortage cycle.


Summary: Shares bullish thesis on Samsung and SK Hynix: NVIDIA skip-qual HBM4 demand, Morgan Stanley projects 4-5x profit growth, Korean memory firms now hold AI supply-chain bottleneck.

[Exclusive] NVIDIA to Samsung: Skip HBM4 Qual Tests, ‘Supply First’ Requested

NVIDIA, the undisputed leader in Artificial Intelligence (AI) semiconductors, has reportedly requested that Samsung Electronics accelerate the supply of 6th-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4). Samsung is currently undergoing final quality testing for mass production shipments scheduled for February, yet NVIDIA has requested supply regardless of the test results. Analysts suggest that NVIDIA is racing to secure HBM4 volumes amidst fierce pursuit from competitors like AMD and Google. This move is being evaluated as a shift in the status of Korean memory companies, elevated to the realm of a "Super Supplier" (Super-Eul) riding the wave of a "Memory Super Cycle."

The Peerless Stature of K-Memory
NVIDIA recently requested that Samsung Electronics supply HBM4 even before reliability or quality evaluations are fully finalized. Currently, both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are conducting final quality tests for HBM4. It is interpreted that NVIDIA is pushing to bypass detailed testing and expedite supply now that a certain level of quality has been verified.

The positions have flipped in just one generation; previously, Samsung was anxious over whether it would pass NVIDIA’s HBM3E quality tests. NVIDIA plans to integrate HBM4 into its next-generation AI chip, "Rubin."

This shift demonstrates that Korean memory companies have risen to a peerless position in the global AI and semiconductor supply chain. Previously, the initiative in the AI ecosystem was held by NVIDIA, which produces Graphics Processing Units (GPUs), or Big Tech firms operating AI models. However, the situation has changed as AI competition intensifies. Without HBM to back up computational performance, cutting-edge AI accelerators cannot function. As securing HBM directly impacts AI chip launches and data center expansions, Korean memory giants like Samsung and SK Hynix now hold the "bottleneck" of the global AI industry.

According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are projected to hold 54% and 28% of the global HBM4 market share this year, respectively, combined accounting for over 80%. Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, noted, "The recent performance of Samsung and SK Hynix mirrors TSMC, which controls the majority of advanced semiconductor production and can raise prices at will. While NVIDIA's GPUs were the essential assets of the AI era, this necessity is now extending to memory."

The general memory shortage caused by firms concentrating on HBM production is also increasing their bargaining power. According to DRAMeXchange, consumer DRAM prices skyrocketed 750% from $1.35 in January last year to $11.5 this past January. NAND flash prices also rose from $2.18 to $9.46 during the same period. Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, remarked after a dinner with Taiwanese supply chain executives last month, "We will need a tremendous amount of memory this year. Demand is so high that the entire supply chain is likely to face challenges."

K-Semiconductor Earnings Soar
The changing status of memory semiconductors is reflected in the earnings forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Global investment bank Morgan Stanley projected this year's operating profits for Samsung and SK Hynix at 245 trillion KRW and 179 trillion KRW, respectively. This represents a 4 to 5-fold increase compared to last year's operating profits of 43.6 trillion KRW and 47.2 trillion KRW.

Morgan Stanley stated, "In 2026, both companies entered an unprecedented stage of supply constraints, and this year's entire memory volume is already sold out. Compared to the past, capital efficiency is higher, and a high-margin structure has been established." Professor Kim Jung-ho of KAIST added, "As memory semiconductors gradually transition into customized products, the influence of domestic companies with superior design and production capabilities will grow even further. In the AI era, memory will come to dominate the industry."

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https://t.co/RS9Lv9UU2c


Broadcom's margins should improve, then.

Summary: Bullish AVGO: growing customer base distributes IP costs, improving margins as XDSiP scales.

"As the customer base grows, IP development costs are distributed and Broadcom's margins improve — a scalable structure."

This is really interesting. I didn’t realize it was structured this way. Broadcom’s margins should improve, then.

$AVGO https://t.co/9qxAw4TBYU

The Next Big HBM Customer's Move… Broadcom Ships First AI 3.5D XDSiP

Broadcom has completed development of its system-in-package (SiP) technology for custom artificial intelligence (AI) data centers utilizing hybrid bonding — an industry first — and is beginning initial mass https://t.co/BOJmp3lwTz


1500원대 진짜 돌파할거 같네요...

Summary: Expects USD/KRW to break above 1,500 won level.

[단독]정부, 은행에 환전우대 서비스 자제령… 환율방어 총력

환율을 방어하랬지,
누가 원화 팔고 싶게 만들랬냐
이러면 달러를 더 갖고 싶어지잖아.

부동산도 똑같다
투기과열지구 지정은 사실상
쪽집게 과외선생이 여기 오른다고 찍어준 격. https://t.co/qE62vM3NlC


Summary: Tags GLW as beneficiary of fiber optic prices hitting all-time highs on AI/drone demand surge and supply constraints.

>> Fiber Optic Prices Break to an All-Time High… Tight Supply Amid AI and Drone Demand (Shanghai Securities News)

• In March, with demand from both drones and AIDC construction rising at the same time, the price of G.657.A2 optical fiber surpassed RMB 210 per core-kilometer, reaching a record high. China Galaxy Securities noted that as AI and computing network deployment accelerates, demand for optical fiber and cable is surging, while near-term capacity expansion remains difficult, causing supply constraints to further drive price increases.

• In particular, as AI infrastructure investment expands, demand is rising rapidly for data center interconnects (DCI) and all-optical network buildouts. In other words, this is not merely a simple price increase, but a sign that network infrastructure bottlenecks in the AI era are becoming a reality.

$GLW

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https://t.co/l1eClcmhSl


Summary: Author endorses GF Securities Buy on AMD with raised PT $308, citing CPU/GPU tailwinds.

Jeff Pu was right again.

$AMD https://t.co/EbOPR9xGco

《GF Overseas Electronics & Communications》
AMD (Buy, AMD US): Performance Outlook, Tailwinds in CPU and GPU

Raising Target Price to $308: Since last November, AMD's stock has been consolidating, but it rebounded 15% in the past week, mainly driven by reports of CPU price


spending $1.8 billion for that simply doesn't make sense to me. In my view, the PSMC fab is worth $1 billion at the absolute most. I just can't rationally make sense of this deal.

Summary: Bearish on Micron's PSMC deal: $1.8B price tag for a tiny, legacy-process fab worth at most $1B is value-destructive.

Thoughts on the Micron-PSMC Deal

Honestly... I just don’t understand why SJ made this deal.

The production capacity secured through this acquisition is only around 20,000 wpm (wafers per month).

That’s less than 1% of global DRAM production capacity—an extremely insignificant volume.

The PSMC fab that Micron is buying is tiny compared to competitors: Samsung’s P4 fab (200,000 wpm) or SK Hynix’s M15X fab (900,000 wpm).

Even if the deal closes, actual wafer starts and chip output won’t happen until mid-2027 or later.

On top of that, despite being a new fab, the PSMC facility was built for legacy processes, making it very difficult to introduce EUV equipment.

In other words, the most advanced DRAM this fab can realistically produce is around the 1a node, and spending $1.8 billion for that simply doesn’t make sense to me.

In my view, the PSMC fab is worth $1 billion at the absolute most.

I just can’t rationally make sense of this deal.


맥쿼리, 삼성전자 목표가 24만원 제시

Summary: Shares Macquarie's ₩240,000 price target for Samsung Electronics; implied bullish.

Macquarie sets a ₩240,000 price target for Samsung Electronics.

맥쿼리, 삼성전자 목표가 24만원 제시 https://t.co/aU9y0OUg3J


Summary: Xiaomi's annual in-house AP roadmap and overseas expansion implies reduced Qualcomm content; bearish QCOM.

Xiaomi President Lu Weibing said in an interview with CNBC that Xiaomi plans to release its own smartphone application processor (AP) every year going forward, and ultimately aims to incorporate it into overseas products as well.

$QCOM
https://t.co/v9PxaOLzSO


Summary: Author endorses BofA bullish chip/NVDA thesis and personally views the selloff as excessive, regretting inability to add more exposure.

US semiconductor sector proxied by SMH ETF

BofA (Bank of America) analyst Vivek Arya concluded that it doesn’t make logical sense for the chip sector and the software sector to sell off together. He argued that a decline in chip stocks implies deteriorating AI investment returns (ROI), while a decline in software stocks implies AI adoption will become extremely widespread—so those two conclusions are hard to reconcile at the same time. In his view, the market is overreacting.

Arya noted that the market’s implicit judgment behind the selloff in AI-related chip stocks is that “AI investments have deteriorated to the point where achieving ideal returns is difficult, limiting future growth runway.” By contrast, the selloff in software stocks reflects a different judgment: “AI adoption will be broadly disseminated and meaningfully boost productivity, replacing software businesses and application business models.”

Arya wrote that “these two outcomes cannot occur simultaneously.” He said this positioning resembles the fear seen during the “DeepSeek shock” in January this year—an episode that ultimately proved to lack factual grounding. At the time, the market worried that DeepSeek could build competitive models at lower cost, reducing demand for high-performance chips.

Arya believes what the market actually witnessed after the “DeepSeek shock” was more AI spending and accelerated growth in AI tokens. In his report, he estimated that 2025 cloud capex growth could reach 69%, far above the initial expectation of 20–30%.

He also argued that even if current AI models are highly capable, it may still take years to truly “prove value” from a productivity standpoint—so he does not expect AI investment to slow in the near term. Even if a major productivity breakthrough emerges in the future, models will need continuous improvement to sustain user engagement, meaning investment is unlikely to decline.

His conclusion is that while the ultimate end-state of the software industry is uncertain, the chip industry has already benefited from the AI buildout cycle—and that tailwind should continue. He added that enterprise AI adoption is still early, and more sovereign nations are beginning to increase AI investment. Arya also pointed out that chip-sector valuations already reflect concerns about slowing spend or downward revisions to earnings expectations, but those concerns “may not actually materialize.”

From a trading perspective, this drawdown looks closer to a “narrative-driven correlation shock.” When the market sells software on the thesis that AI will displace it, while simultaneously selling AI chips on the thesis that AI ROI is worsening, core AI assets like Nvidia can easily get dragged down in the process—through position unwinds and broad risk re-rating.

Arya concluded that what Nvidia investors most need in the near term is clarity on whether this price action reflects a real change in AI capex and demand fundamentals, or whether it’s coming from indiscriminate, cross-sector de-risking triggered by the narrative that “AI beats software.”

That was Arya’s interpretation, and I also don’t really understand this selloff.

If I had to find a reason, you could argue that there was simply too much leverage in the system recently, and mechanical selling—like CTA-driven flows—may have contributed.

Still, I think the magnitude of the drop is excessive.

I’m really bummed that I don’t have any cash right now, so I can’t buy more even after this drop.


I also don't really understand this selloff… I think the magnitude of the drop is excessive. I'm really bummed that I don't have any cash right now, so I can't buy more even after this drop


Summary: Relays institutional Buy on Unimicron (PT TWD 520) on EPS beat, ABF capacity expansion ~40%, LTA margin protection, and AI substrate demand into 2026–2027.

Is the Stock Pullback a 'Diamond-Buying' Opportunity? IC Substrate Maker Unimicron Locks in Volume—Not Price—via Long-Term Contracts; Institutions Maintain Buy (Commercial Times Taiwan)

- IC substrate and PCB major Unimicron Technology previously broke above TWD 500, hitting an all-time high, but fell to TWD 432 on March 6 amid a broader Taiwan market correction. Institutional investors, however, continue to maintain a Buy rating with a target price of TWD 520.

- According to institutions, the company's preliminary January EPS came in at TWD 1.23, significantly above the market consensus of TWD 0.80, driven largely by gains on financial asset revaluations. Meanwhile, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical (MGC) raised CCL prices effective March 1, and Unimicron passed through the raw material cost increase to customers nearly simultaneously. As a result, margins are expected to show a notable improvement vs. Q4 last year, with a continued quarter-over-quarter improvement trend anticipated.

- Another key factor cited by institutions is the company's long-term supply agreements (LTAs). Unimicron has signed multi-year contracts with several customers—primarily 5-year terms, with some at 3 or 7 years. Prepayments will be recognized this year and used to fund ABF substrate capacity expansion. Critically, these contracts lock in capacity but not price, allowing the company to adjust selling prices in line with market supply-demand dynamics—a structure that is highlighted as enabling effective margin defense.

- Looking at 2026, the company plans a significant expansion of ABF substrate capacity. Through the Phase 3 ramp at its Guangfu plant, debottlenecking at the Yangmei facility, and expansion of mid-tier substrate lines, ABF capacity is expected to grow approximately 40%. Conversely, reflecting softening smartphone demand, BT substrate capacity will be trimmed by 15–17%, concentrating resources toward higher-value products.

- The AI HDI segment is also viewed favorably. Once key equipment at the new Luzhu plant comes online in H2 and capacity adjustments are completed, both revenue and margins are expected to improve simultaneously. AI substrates currently account for roughly 60% of ABF product mix, serving GPUs, ASICs, AI peripherals, and general-purpose server CPUs. The market has also begun to raise the possibility of AI substrates entering a new supply shortage cycle by 2027.

- Institutions characterize Unimicron as a key supplier to multiple ASIC companies, with de facto sole-source status on certain products. As AI accelerator demand broadens and next-generation GPU substrate mass production commences, earnings growth drivers are expected to strengthen. Given the strategy of expanding high-value ABF mix, the 2026 earnings outlook remains optimistic.

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https://t.co/HHImNFw5gu


Summary: Bullish SNDK if 2027 margin outlook not yet priced in; stock could have more room to run.

Does Sandisk's recent sharp stock price surge already reflect the company's tremendous operating profit margin in 2027?

If it hasn't been fully priced in yet, then the stock price could still have a lot more room to run going forward. https://t.co/sOqJkyo7cA

Over the next three years, NAND companies are basically going to be printing money. Just look at these insane gross margins.

$SNDK $MU https://t.co/aGz3aW28io


Summary: DRAM boom drives 60-70% QoQ price hikes; Samsung and SK Hynix operating profits forecast up 253%/224% YoY; server DRAM ASP +144% this year.

DRAM Boom Shakes Up Hotels… ‘Business Trip War’ to Secure LTAs

Business hotels in Pangyo, Gyeonggi Province, such as DoubleTree and Nine Tree, have been enjoying a "semiconductor special boom" since last month. This is due to a flood of demand for long-term stays from procurement staff visiting from the headquarters of global cloud companies like Amazon and Google, as well as smartphone and PC companies like Apple and Dell. The reason they visited Korea is the "war to secure DRAM" taking place among big tech companies. It is reported that they visit Samsung Electronics' DS Division in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province, and SK Hynix's headquarters in Icheon—located 30 to 40 minutes away—almost every day to request Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) that guarantee a certain volume for 2 to 3 years.

◇ Samsung and SK Reject Long-Term Contracts

According to the semiconductor industry on the 5th, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are rejecting LTAs with clients and sticking to "quarterly" contracts. This is because it is obvious that DRAM prices will rise in a stepwise manner every quarter until 2027. Far from long-term contracts, Samsung and SK have proposed supply prices for the first quarter of this year to major server DRAM clients that are raised by 60-70% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. They are also proposing similar price increase levels to PC and smartphone DRAM clients.

Behind the unprecedentedly high price increase proposal lies a greater-than-expected demand for 5th generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM3E). As memory companies struggle to respond to HBM3E orders, the shortage of server DRAM is intensifying. The US government's permission to export Nvidia's 'H200' AI accelerator to China served as the 'trigger.' The H200 contains eight HBM3E products. The volume of new H200 orders placed by Chinese clients since last month is estimated at $3 billion (approx. 4.3 trillion KRW). In addition, Broadcom, which develops custom AI accelerators for clients like Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), is increasing its HBM3E orders, contributing to the DRAM shortage.

Some analyze that weight should be placed on structural changes in the memory industry rather than immediate supply and demand. As AI inference-based services like Gemini and Copilot gain popularity, big tech companies are accelerating investment in inference servers. Whenever this happens, demand for general-purpose memory also increases.

◇ “Server DRAM to Rise 144% This Year”

Clients seem to be accepting the price increase margins proposed by Samsung and SK. Reflecting this, market research firm DRAMeXchange presented a forecast for the fixed transaction price growth rate of server DRAM in the first quarter of this year at 60-65%. An industry insider explained, "Clients are aware that it is difficult for Samsung and SK to increase production capacity in the short term."

This trend is expected to continue until the end of the year. Global investment banks (IBs) forecast that the average selling price (ASP) of server DRAM will rise by up to 144% year-on-year on an annual basis this year. Earnings forecasts are also being raised. Citi presented Samsung Electronics' operating profit forecast for this year at 155 trillion KRW, 253% higher than last year (approx. 44 trillion KRW). Morgan Stanley also viewed SK Hynix's operating profit for this year at 148 trillion KRW. This is a 224% surge compared to last year's estimate (46 trillion KRW).

◇ Growing Burden on Finished Product Makers

The burden on smartphone, PC, and server companies is growing due to the sharp rise in memory prices. This is because costs are surging. According to market research firm IDC, the proportion of memory semiconductors in smartphone costs has recently risen from the 15% level to over 20%.

Smartphone companies like China's Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo, as well as PC companies like Dell and HP, have set out to defend profitability by raising prices. Samsung Electronics, which is about to launch its premium AI phone, the Galaxy S26, next month, has also entered deep contemplation. Roh Tae-moon, Head of the Device Experience (DX) Division at Samsung Electronics, said in an interview with Reuters on this day, "The global memory chip shortage is putting pressure on the profitability of Samsung's smartphone business."

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https://t.co/fnZces6Swa


Morgan Stanley also viewed SK Hynix's operating profit for this year at 148 trillion KRW. This is a 224% surge compared to last year's estimate


server DRAM will rise by up to 144% year-on-year on an annual basis this year

Korea DRAM sector: Samsung Electronics + SK Hynix


Summary: DRAM prices doubled Q/Q and set to keep rising into Q2; Samsung, Hynix, Micron all benefiting from AI-driven supply crunch.

Global DRAM memory basket: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung

Samsung Confirms Q1 DRAM Price Hike at '70→100%'… Another Jump in Just One Month

Samsung Electronics has confirmed a Q1 DRAM price increase of over 100%. The price hike, initially negotiated at around 70% in January, widened further in just one month. The aftershock of surging memory demand driven by the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) has now triggered month-over-month price swings in DRAM.

According to industry sources on the 4th, Samsung Electronics finalized Q1 DRAM supply pricing with major customers last month. The average price increase for commodity DRAM used in servers, PCs, and mobile devices is estimated at approximately 100% quarter-over-quarter. This means prices have effectively doubled compared to Q4 last year, with some customers and products reportedly seeing hikes exceeding 100%.

An industry source familiar with the matter said, "Samsung Electronics has wrapped up DRAM supply price negotiations, and some overseas customers have already completed payment," adding that "additional increases were made to reflect price movements between January and February."

As of January, Samsung's quarterly DRAM price increase stood at 70%, while NAND was at around 100% (refer to the January 26 front page of ETNews). Even then, the steep hikes caused significant ripples across the industry. Despite the sharp rise in memory prices, customers continued to line up. Some overseas Big Tech firms reportedly visited Korea to proactively secure supply volumes by meeting with Samsung Electronics and other memory manufacturers.

Samsung Electronics has been conducting ongoing price negotiations with customers in consideration of its supply capacity. Demand continued to surge even during supply discussions, leading to further price increases following the January round.

Memory supply contracts for DRAM and other products were traditionally done on an annual basis. Due to recent supply shortages, memory manufacturers have been pushing for quarterly contracts — but with prices now fluctuating so rapidly, even monthly pricing is becoming a consideration.

Samsung Electronics is not the only one continuously raising memory prices. The industry estimates that SK Hynix and Micron have also closed Q1 supply contracts at similar levels.

The global expansion of AI infrastructure investment is what has driven this extraordinary situation. As more AI service providers (data centers) purchase AI semiconductor chips, demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to support computation has surged. With Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron concentrating their production capacity on HBM, supply of commodity DRAM for servers, PCs, and mobile devices has become constrained. Demand is overflowing — not only for AI servers but also AI PCs and AI smartphones — yet supply remains tight, pushing prices through the roof.

With AI growth still ongoing, memory price increases are expected to persist for some time. NVIDIA, the world's largest AI chip company, posted record-breaking earnings on the 25th of last month, dispelling concerns over an AI bubble. Market research firm Gartner forecasts that DRAM and solid-state drive (SSD) prices will rise 130% year-over-year (on a combined basis) this year.

An industry source said, "DRAM and NAND prices will continue to rise in Q2 as well," adding that "while the pace of increase may moderate, price hikes themselves are unavoidable at this point."

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https://t.co/GoF4iSVQFR


Samsung Electronics has confirmed a Q1 DRAM price increase of over 100%


SK Hynix and Micron have also closed Q1 supply contracts at similar levels


Citi forecasts Samsung's 2026 operating profit at $173.9B (KRW 251 trillion) and set a target price of KRW 280,000

Summary: Shares Citi's Buy-equivalent call on Samsung with KRW 280K PT and sharply raised DRAM/NAND ASP forecasts.

Citi forecasts Samsung’s 2026 operating profit at $173.9B (KRW 251 trillion) and set a target price of KRW 280,000.

Citi also expects 2026 global DRAM/NAND ASP growth (forecast) to reach +171% / +127% YoY (vs. its previous estimates of +120% / +90%).

The outlook is even stronger for the server segment. Citi forecasts 2026 server DRAM and SSD ASP growth at +290% / +153% YoY.


Summary: Buy LRCX as the highest-NAND-exposure semicap play; supercycle expected to benefit the industry through 2026-2027.

Ultimately, memory makers have no choice but to expand capacity, and that will keep the memory industry cyclical.

That said, it doesn’t mean memory stocks will fall right away.

Micron’s Singapore NAND fab won’t come online until 2028, so it doesn’t undermine the view that the supercycle should continue to benefit the industry throughout 2027—and at least all of 2026.

If timing the cycle feels daunting, buy semicap instead. Among semicap names, $LRCX has the highest NAND exposure.

Micron is the first to announce a NAND capacity increase, excluding Kioxia and YMTC.

https://t.co/QGhxhNdqU2


Samsung Electronics also sees advanced packaging as the next key battleground following HBM and is strengthening its related business... observations suggest that an opportunity will soon come to Samsung

Summary: Bullish Samsung as a beneficiary of TSMC's CoWoS bottleneck; turnkey advanced packaging could win Broadcom/AMD customers.

A Major Opportunity Approaches Samsung... Going All-In on Advanced Packaging

Every December, senior executives from AI semiconductor giants like NVIDIA and Broadcom gather at TSMC’s headquarters in the Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan. Their goal is to secure even just one more slot on TSMC’s "Advanced Packaging" production lines, which integrate GPUs and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to create AI accelerators. The allocation of these lines, known as "CoWoS" (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate), determines the volume of AI accelerators they can produce the following year. In fact, Google reportedly lowered the production target for its proprietary AI accelerator, the Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), by 1 million units from its original goal of 4 million because it lost out to NVIDIA in the battle for CoWoS capacity.

"Advanced Packaging," which mounts high-performance semiconductors like GPUs and HBM onto a special material called a "silicon interposer" to make them function seamlessly as a single chip, has emerged as the decisive battleground for supremacy in the AI semiconductor market this year. As ultra-fine processes—narrowing circuit linewidths to the 1-nanometer (nm) range to pack multiple functions into a small chip—reach their technical limits, semiconductor companies are turning to advanced packaging to connect multiple chips and operate them as a single unit.

Consequently, the related market is projected to grow from $43 billion (approx. 62 trillion KRW) last year to $64.3 billion (approx. 93 trillion KRW) by 2028. Currently, the advanced packaging market is dominated by TSMC. The situation has reached a point where companies cannot produce AI accelerators on time even if they have secured GPUs and HBM, simply because they haven't been allocated enough of TSMC's CoWoS lines. In response to repeated demands from NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, and others, TSMC has decided to invest $7.5 billion (approx. 10.85 trillion KRW) this year—its largest amount ever—to significantly expand its advanced packaging capacity.

Samsung Electronics also sees advanced packaging as the next key battleground following HBM and is strengthening its related business. It is reported to be marketing a "turnkey" solution—offering advanced packaging bundled with DRAM and foundry services—to companies like Google, AMD, and Amazon, who were unable to secure sufficient CoWoS lines due to NVIDIA’s dominance.

To produce the AI accelerators—often called the "pickaxes" of the gold rush in the AI era—chips must undergo two stages of advanced packaging (a process that makes multiple chips work like one). The first is the fabrication of HBM, which involves stacking up to 16 DRAMs. Once this process, which is far more difficult than standard DRAM production, is cleared, an even greater challenge awaits: "2.5D Packaging," which connects the HBM and GPU on a special substrate called a silicon interposer to function as a single chip.

No matter how good the GPU and HBM are, if the advanced packaging fails, the AI accelerator cannot perform properly. It is a high-difficulty process, with industry leader TSMC's yield remaining at only 50–60%. As TSMC fails to keep up with the flood of orders from NVIDIA and AMD, 2.5D packaging has become the biggest bottleneck hindering the expansion of the AI market.

◇ Alternatives to the Limits of Ultra-Fine Processes

Packaging is broadly divided into traditional packaging and advanced packaging. Traditional packaging refers to the process of placing a single chip on a mainboard and connecting it electrically. It is part of the "back-end" process, which was previously evaluated as a "less critical" technology in the semiconductor ecosystem.

However, the situation changed as demand for high-performance chips exploded in the AI era. Until the early 2020s, semiconductor companies went "all-in" on "ultra-fine processes," narrowing circuit widths to below 2nm to pack more functions into smaller chips. But this competition backfired. Profitability declined due to the need to purchase Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment costing up to 500 billion KRW per unit. Technical challenges were also formidable; as linewidths narrowed, interference increased, and leakage current grew, making it difficult to control heat generation.

The solution found was packaging. Instead of cramming complex functions into a single chip via ultra-fine processes, connecting several moderately advanced chips could achieve the same performance. The industry attached the modifier "Advanced" to this technology because its technical difficulty far exceeds that of traditional packaging.

◇ Severe Shortage of CoWoS Capacity

The frontrunner is TSMC. Its main weapon is a 2.5D advanced packaging technology called "CoWoS-S." It places a silicon interposer—a special material layer acting as a bridge—on top of a substrate and arranges multiple chips horizontally. The silicon interposer consists of Through-Silicon Vias (TSV), which are vertical passages connecting the bottom substrate to the top chips, and a Redistribution Layer (RDL), which connects signals between chips. It is called 2.5D packaging because the interposer and chips are stacked vertically (3D) on the substrate, while the chips are arranged horizontally (2D).

As demand for high-performance chips grew with the AI era, NVIDIA and AMD recognized the power of CoWoS. Thus, AI accelerators like the B200 and H100, connecting HBM and GPUs, were born.

According to Samsung Securities, TSMC’s CoWoS production capacity (converted to wafers) increased from 35,000 sheets per month in 2024 to about 70,000 sheets last year, and is expected to rise to about 110,000 sheets this year. However, evaluations suggest this is still insufficient. Considering that the CoWoS allocation for NVIDIA by TSMC is around 55%, the calculation suggests that only 8.91 million "Blackwell" AI accelerators can be produced this year. This volume can support data centers with a maximum capacity of 18 gigawatts (GW), which accounts for only 50% of global data center investment capacity this year. Samsung Securities analyzed, "There is a possibility that TSMC will not be able to meet even NVIDIA's demand this year."

◇ Samsung Electronics Aiming for a Niche

Samsung Electronics is looking for an opportunity. Although the domestic company Rebellions verified Samsung's technical capabilities to some extent by developing its latest AI accelerator, "Rebel Quad," using Samsung's 2.5D packaging service "I-Cube," Samsung has not yet secured significant global customers.

However, as the "TSMC bottleneck" shows no signs of resolving, observations suggest that an opportunity will soon come to Samsung. Samsung is reportedly proposing a "turnkey service"—providing AI accelerator-related memory, foundry, and advanced packaging all at once—to companies like Broadcom (maker of Google's TPU) and AMD, who have not been allocated sufficient CoWoS volume due to NVIDIA.

SK Hynix is also paying attention to 2.5D packaging. It has begun full-scale R&D centered on its Future Technology Research Institute and Packaging & Test (P&T) organization. Although SK Hynix draws a line by stating it is "to make better customer-customized HBM," the industry observes a high possibility that it will enter the 2.5D packaging business in earnest in the future.

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https://t.co/gSoGDDimh3


Summary: Endorses Bernstein Outperform/$300 TP on SNDK; NAND makers prioritizing profitability over supply adds, structural bullish setup for the sector.

"They need to see demand consistently outstrip supply with margins significantly higher than this before even considering capacity additions."

My take is that the NAND companies that “came back from the dead” have no choice but to prioritize extreme profitability right now.

Let me share one anecdote.

During a severe downturn in the NAND industry, one NAND manufacturer was on the verge of bankruptcy — and at that point, none of its customers wanted to buy its products.

Why? Because once the company went bankrupt, customers could procure NAND far more cheaply by buying up its inventory at distressed auction prices.

And after the company actually went bankrupt, DRAM buyers swooped in like hyenas and feasted on that inventory.

NAND makers remember that period vividly.

They also remember exactly how poorly they were treated by demand-side customers during the brutal 2022–2024 NAND downturn.

Now, NAND manufacturers have no intention of compromising. They have no intention of adding supply.

Bernstein: Sandisk (SNDK - Outperform, $300 TP)

Sandisk sees the CES keynote comments on Vera Rubin KV cache from Jensen Huang of Nvidia as incremental new NAND demand that is not previously in the demand forecast. Prior to the forecast, Sandisk estimated that NAND was 8%


NAND manufacturers have no intention of compromising. They have no intention of adding supply.


Summary: Morgan Stanley (shared/adopted): memory supply structurally tight through 2026+; selling memory stocks on 2H27 supply fears is premature; bullish MU, Samsung, Hynix, DRAM broadly.

Interesting parts from Morgan Stanley's Micron commentary:

"Memory producers currently have virtually no inventory. Customers lower on the supply priority list—such as Chinese Android OEMs and consumer PC makers—are struggling to secure any inventory at all, and even the highest-priority customers face a similar situation. These top-tier customers are absorbing every incremental unit of supply and paying premiums over contracted prices just to receive shipments even 30 days sooner.

This tight supply-demand environment is reflected in Samsung and SK Hynix posting only low-single-digit (LSD) quarter-over-quarter bit growth heading into Q1—a clear sign that near-term fab output growth alone cannot keep pace with demand.

Even over the medium to long term, the pace of supply expansion remains constrained. Factoring in new fabs such as CXMT Shanghai, Hynix M15, and Samsung P4L, wafer starts are expected to grow only about 7% year-over-year by the end of CY26. Micron's Boise project and its partnership with PSMC are also unlikely to contribute meaningful capacity before 2027.

Demand, on the other hand, is overwhelming. Summing up the expected quarterly revenue increases from key players through the end of 2026:

- NVIDIA: +$30 billion in quarterly revenue
- AMD Data Center: doubling to ~$10 billion per quarter
- Broadcom Semiconductors: doubling to ~$25 billion per quarter
- Marvell + Intel: ~$1 billion in incremental revenue

Annualized, the memory industry faces roughly $200 billion in incremental revenue it must support over the next 12 months—a figure that exceeds the entire logic semiconductor market in 2020. The surge in HBM demand, in particular, means DRAM suppliers will need to operate at significantly higher capital intensity.

In short, as long as AI growth maintains its current CAGR, closing the supply-demand gap will be no easy task. In this structurally robust growth environment, selling stocks solely on concerns about supply increases in the second half of 2027 appears premature."


Samsung and SK Hynix posting only low-single-digit (LSD) quarter-over-quarter bit growth heading into Q1


as long as AI growth maintains its current CAGR, closing the supply-demand gap will be no easy task


Summary: Samsung and SK Hynix hiking LPDDR prices ~80-100% QoQ for Apple; profitability set to surge in Q1 with margins expected in the 60%+ range.

Even 'Whale' Apple Surrenders... Samsung and SK Hynix Hike LPDDR Prices for iPhone

It has been reported that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have recently increased the price of Low Power Double Data Rate (LPDDR) DRAM supplied to Apple by nearly double compared to the previous quarter. Apple, a major smartphone manufacturer, has traditionally utilized its dominant market position to procure LPDDR at relatively low prices.

However, as the memory supply shortage has intensified since mid-last year, Apple appears to have been unable to resist the overall trend of rising prices. Conversely, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are now positioned to maximize the profitability of their DRAM businesses starting in the first quarter of this year.

According to industry sources on the 27th, Samsung and SK Hynix have agreed to significantly raise LPDDR prices for the iPhone through negotiations with Apple.

LPDDR is a type of DRAM that focuses on power efficiency compared to standard DRAM (DDR). It is a critical component for mobile devices, and the 7th-generation product, LPDDR5X, is currently the most widely used. Apple is a major customer for this memory, with annual iPhone shipments estimated at approximately 250 million units as of last year.

Recently, memory prices, including LPDDR5, have seen a sharp upward trajectory. This is because demand for DRAM has surged due to aggressive AI infrastructure investments by global big tech companies, while suppliers have shifted a larger portion of their production capacity to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), exacerbating the supply shortage of conventional chips.

Through these negotiations, Samsung and SK Hynix have significantly raised the prices of LPDDR supplied for iPhones in the first quarter. Specifically, Samsung Electronics reportedly proposed an increase of over 80% compared to the previous quarter, while SK Hynix suggested an increase of around 100%.

There is also a possibility that LPDDR prices for Apple could rise further in the second half of the year, coinciding with the launch of Apple's latest flagship, the 'iPhone 18.'

An industry official noted, "Apple typically signs annual Long-Term Agreements (LTA), but due to the recent memory crisis, they have reportedly finalized unit prices only through the first half of the year. Prices may see additional hikes in the second half to align with new product releases."

Despite the hike, the price of LPDDR for Apple is not considered objectively high. As a 'whale' in the memory market, Apple has historically used its leverage to secure LPDDR at lower prices than its competitors. While exact unit prices remain confidential, the industry views these negotiations as having significantly addressed the long-standing price imbalance between Apple and memory suppliers.

The reflection of these price hikes is expected to further boost the profitability of memory suppliers in Q1. Market research firm TrendForce anticipates that general-purpose DRAM prices will rise by 55–60% this quarter compared to the previous one.

Another official remarked, "LPDDR prices already rose by about 40% in the fourth quarter of last year. With an even larger increase in the first quarter, profit margins are expected to reach at least the 60% range."

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https://t.co/p1KjlFsQwY


Samsung and SK Hynix have significantly raised the prices of LPDDR supplied for iPhones in the first quarter


TSMC's SoIC (System on Integrated Chips) as a critical enabling technology

Summary: TSMC SoIC adoption for NVDA Rubin Ultra/Feynman identified as a structural tailwind for TSMC, Besi, AMAT, and TEL on hybrid bonding/advanced packaging demand.

NVIDIA’s Next-Generation Chips: TSMC Prepares with SoIC (Taiwan Commercial Times)

• NVIDIA unveiled its AI chip roadmap at GTC 2026, presenting an enhanced Rubin Ultra platform for 2027 and the next-generation Feynman architecture for 2028. The Rubin Ultra platform is expected to feature seven chips and five rack configurations, while Feynman is set to adopt custom HBM, high-density chiplets, and advanced 3D stacking technologies.

• Industry sources view TSMC’s SoIC (System on Integrated Chips) as a critical enabling technology. SoIC vertically stacks dies to significantly increase transistor density, helping extend scaling beyond the limits of traditional Moore’s Law. As the Rubin Ultra generation drives larger chip sizes and greater HBM integration, packaging complexity is expected to rise sharply. With manufacturing efficiency for single-package solutions becoming more constrained, the importance of 3D stacking is becoming even more pronounced.

• In particular, the Feynman generation is expected to mark a major inflection point for SoIC demand. Based on copper-to-copper hybrid bonding, SoIC enables shorter interconnects and lower power consumption, making it a key technology for addressing AI compute bottlenecks. Compared with conventional 2.5D packaging such as CoWoS, it offers higher bandwidth and better energy efficiency, making it well suited for next-generation AI training and inference chips.
•On the manufacturing side, TSMC is expected to build SoIC capacity of around 11,000–15,000 wafers per month by 2026, with further expansion planned to meet demand from major customers such as Broadcom and AMD. Relative to CoWoS, SoIC requires significantly higher capital investment, with roughly $6.8 billion to $7.0 billion in capex needed for every 10,000 wafers of capacity. This underscores both the high technical barriers and the strategic importance of the technology.

• From an equipment standpoint, hybrid bonding and related process requirements are expected to benefit companies such as Besi, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron. Among Taiwanese firms, Hongsu (All Ring Tech), GMM, and CSUN are also expected to capture opportunities across relevant process segments.

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https://t.co/eClRW1COeU


hybrid bonding and related process requirements are expected to benefit companies such as Besi


hybrid bonding and related process requirements are expected to benefit companies such as Besi, Applied Materials, and Tokyo Electron


Summary: Bullish on semiconductor equipment names long-term; near-term headwind from memory capex discipline, but durable demand ahead.

Semiconductor equipment basket: AMAT, Lam, KLA, ASML

Well, when you look at the fact that the profits memory companies are making are not flowing straight into equipment CAPEX, that is negative for equipment makers in the short term. But over the longer run, it will still lead to more disciplined investment. It may not be reckless, massive-scale spending, but even that disciplined CAPEX will still be quite meaningful. I still like equipment names.

@jukan05 But this is not good for machine manufacturers like ASML, KLA, NVMI, etc. ?


Summary: GF Securities reiterates Buy on AAPL (strong memory procurement) and NVDA (performance/cost-per-token lead); cautious on Hyperscaler Capex boost and ODM/OEM demand.

《 GF Securities Overseas Electronic Communications 》

Analysis of Memory Price Impact on Consumer and AI Segments

High Memory Prices Leading to Smartphone "Downgrading"
Due to the continuous price hikes of LPDDR and NAND, smartphone manufacturers' profit margins are being squeezed amidst moderate market demand. Memory now accounts for 20-30% of the smartphone Bill of Materials (BOM). While upgrade plans for high-end and flagship models remain unchanged, a "downgrading" trend for mid-to-low-end models has become inevitable. We observe that some Chinese manufacturers are evaluating external storage solutions or re-introducing MicroSD card slots in flagship models to reduce internal storage capacity. Consequently, we have revised down the 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast to a 6% year-on-year (YoY) decline. We believe price wars will gradually ease, as further price cuts are unlikely to stimulate new demand. On the other hand, we remain bullish on Apple (AAPL Buy), benefiting from its formidable procurement capabilities and ongoing negotiations for favorable memory supply terms with Korean vendors.

1GW GB300 NVL72 Rack Deployment Cost to Reach $36.8B by Year-End (Previously ~$35B)
During Microsoft’s earnings call, management noted that "rising memory prices will affect capital expenditure (Capex)," triggering investor concerns regarding Capex expansion. However, our analysis shows that recent memory price increases will add approximately $300,000 in costs per rack, or an additional $1.8 billion per 1GW data center deployment. This represents a 7% increase in rack BOM and a 5% increase in total investment. Therefore, we believe recent Capex upward revisions by Hyperscalers (e.g., Meta) primarily reflect rising memory costs and higher prices for general-purpose servers. General-purpose servers typically account for 20-30% of Hyperscaler Capex; if their BOM rises by 30%, it would result in a 7-8% overall increase in Capex. Notably, the entire AI supply chain is prioritizing this issue, particularly Neo-clouds, which are more sensitive to these costs.

Higher Cost Pressure on HGX 8-GPU and General-Purpose Servers
According to our estimates, rising memory costs will lead to an 11% BOM increase for HGX 8-GPU B300 AI servers, aligning with recent reports of 15-20% hikes in system prices. For general-purpose servers, memory and storage costs now represent 72% of the total BOM (up from 42% previously), putting significant pricing pressure on server brands. Consequently, we expect OEMs to further raise prices to protect their profitability levels.

Impact on Equities
We believe the Capex upward revisions by Meta and potentially other Hyperscalers have no substantial positive impact, as the majority of the increase merely reflects rising memory costs. Furthermore, while subsequent price hikes for 8-GPU and general-purpose servers are a short-term positive for ODMs/OEMs, demand uncertainty from small-to-mid-sized cloud customers may dampen this effect. Overall, we maintain a positive outlook on Apple (AAPL Buy) due to its strong procurement power, and NVIDIA (NVDA Buy) for its leading advantage in performance and cost per token.


NVIDIA (NVDA Buy) for its leading advantage in performance and cost per token


That's hugely bullish for the HBM makers

Summary: Feynman GPU expected to use 1TB/1.3TB HBM5 per JPM, hugely bullish for HBM makers; MU called out explicitly.

HBM memory makers: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron

Looks like Feynman’s specs may have changed lol.

According to JPM’s estimate, it’s expected to use even more HBM capacity than Rubin Ultra.

JPM appears to expect the Feynman GPU to use 1TB/1.3TB of HBM5.

That’s hugely bullish for the HBM makers.

$MU


we have raised our 2027 earnings forecast. We now forecast Zhen Ding's 2026/2027 EPS at NT$14.00/22.42, which is 15%/33% above market consensus. Based on 15x the average of 2026E/2027E EPS, we set our target price at NT$273

Summary: Bullish Zhen Ding on AI/substrate supercycle; 2026/2027 EPS 15%/33% above consensus, PT NT$273 on optical module 10x growth and ABF ramp.

Zhen Ding Technology listed on TWSE as 4935.TW

《 GF Overseas Electronics & Communications 》

☄Zhen Ding 4Q25 Review: Entering the AI Era

☀Rising confidence in AI and substrate businesses:
Zhen Ding reported 4Q25 revenue of NT$56.9 billion and a gross margin of 22.6%, both above market expectations. On the earnings call, management expressed strong confidence in AI-driven growth, targeting 6–7x revenue growth in optical modules and AI server PCB businesses. In addition, management reiterated its optimistic outlook for the IC substrate business in both revenue and profitability. Given improving profitability in the substrate segment, alongside cost pressure from upstream PCB materials, we have slightly adjusted our 2026 earnings forecast. Meanwhile, with better visibility in the AI business, we have raised our 2027 earnings forecast. We now forecast Zhen Ding’s 2026/2027 EPS at NT$14.00/22.42, which is 15%/33% above market consensus. Based on 15x the average of 2026E/2027E EPS, we set our target price at NT$273.

☀A substrate supercycle is coming:
We estimate AI demand accounted for 30% / around 50% of total ABF demand in 2025/2026, and AI-related demand is expected to double again in 2027. To support surging customer orders, Zhen Ding is pushing ahead with an aggressive capacity expansion plan. Fab 1 expansion is set to be completed in 2026, while equipment move-in for Fab 2 will begin in 2H26. Together, the two facilities will support annual output value of RMB 7 billion. In the first two months of 2026, Zhen Ding’s ABF revenue grew more than 50% YoY. Higher prices for low-CTE glass, together with better utilization, should further drive earnings upside. Management also stated that the ABF business is expected to turn profit-contributive in 2026, after dragging down 2025 EPS by NT$1.5.

☀AI business continues to ramp:
We reiterate our forecast of RMB 5.7 billion AI revenue in 2026, above consensus expectations. Optical modules will be the key growth driver in 2026, with management indicating this segment could achieve nearly 10x growth this year, followed by another doubling in 2027. In AI PCB, driven by demand ramp from ASIC customers (AWS/Google), scaling of NVIDIA compute trays, and capacity expansion at the Huai’an plant in 3Q26, Zhen Ding’s AI business revenue is expected to accelerate starting in 2Q. Looking ahead to 2027, CoWoP will become another important revenue contributor. Product R&D is progressing smoothly, and FII is advancing the SLT project, with Zhen Ding being one of the key suppliers.


Summary: AMD-Samsung partnership on HBM4, DRAM/NAND supply, and foundry could accelerate AMD earnings and Samsung's foundry profitability recovery.

Samsung·AMD 'Memory·Foundry' Partnership Takes Shape

AMD CEO Lisa Su is making her first-ever visit to Korea, drawing significant attention to the scope of potential collaboration with Samsung Semiconductor.

According to industry sources on the 16th, Su is set to arrive in Korea on the 18th. She is scheduled to meet successively with Naver CEO Choi Soo-yeon and Samsung Electronics DS Division Head Vice Chairman Jun Young-hyun, followed by a meeting with Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Jae-yong. It will be the second meeting between Chairman Lee and CEO Su in roughly three months, following their last encounter in the U.S. in December. AMD is widely regarded as NVIDIA's primary competitor in the AI accelerator market.

Su's visit to Korea is highly unusual — it marks her first trip to the country since taking office in 2014. Historically, Su's Asia itinerary has centered on Japan, China, and Taiwan. Japan has been active ground for automotive semiconductor collaboration through AMD's acquisition of Xilinx; Taiwan is home to TSMC, the world's largest foundry; and China remains one of the world's largest markets. Korea's emergence on this circuit underscores how dramatically Samsung Memory's strategic importance has grown.

Industry sources indicate that the visit will cover discussions on long-term supply agreements spanning commodity DRAM and NAND flash in addition to broader memory categories — a signal that even hyperscale customers like AMD are facing serious memory procurement constraints. The agenda also includes HBM4 supply terms: Samsung's sixth-generation High Bandwidth Memory is expected to be incorporated into AMD's latest MI450 series AI accelerators.

Foundry collaboration is attracting attention on par with the memory discussions. The two companies are reportedly negotiating a contract for AMD to allocate volume to Samsung's leading-edge foundry process. If realized, a formal foundry partnership between the two would be essentially unprecedented. Samsung did produce some AMD graphics chips on its 14nm process back in 2016, but that engagement was not considered meaningful in scale — unlike more recent wins such as the Tesla order.

Should Samsung Foundry secure AMD chip orders, the earnings recovery trajectory would likely accelerate further. It could serve as a pivotal validation of Samsung Foundry's technical capabilities as a credible "alternative to TSMC" in the eyes of other major fabless customers. With Samsung Memory already entering an unprecedented upcycle, the question now is whether Foundry can pull forward its own path to profitability.

A senior industry official noted, "Samsung and AMD are understood to be coordinating plans to jointly disclose the details of this collaboration directly," adding that "Samsung Semiconductor's strategic importance is set to be reaffirmed."

Su is also reportedly pursuing meetings with Blue House officials or other government figures during her stay. This follows SoftBank Group Chairman Masayoshi Son's visit to Korea last December, during which he visited the Blue House directly to discuss AI cooperation.

$AMD

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https://t.co/89wLB3otbf


Samsung Memory already entering an unprecedented upcycle, the question now is whether Foundry can pull forward its own path to profitability