Summary: Stablecoin legislation selloff overblown; stablecoins are far from hurting Visa/Mastercard earnings, implying both are oversold.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Visa is now down 5% and Mastercard 8% last week, due to the U.S. Senate passing stablecoin legislation.

imo, there is still a long way to go before stablecoins start hurting their bottom line. https://t.co/Q7nZGkDfQK


I think $TSLA is a falling knife. Tesla's fundamentals aren't misunderstood. They're deteriorating in plain sight.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: dismisses bull case; fundamentals deteriorating openly despite apparent discount.

I think $TSLA is a falling knife. Here’s why:

1/ Tesla looks like it’s on sale:

– $900B market cap
– Real profits (rare for EVs)
– 1st-mover advantage in autonomy, storage, charging
– “The next Apple,” if you believe the bulls

But Tesla’s fundamentals aren’t misunderstood. They’re deteriorating in plain sight.


Google's Gemini is almost never last in any list. This, combined with Google's already pretty big stronghold on the search and browser business means they have a significant advantage over the competition when it comes to AI and browsers

Summary: Bullish GOOG despite antitrust/AI competition fears; strong moats in search/browser, AI capability, 17x forward earnings seen as attractive after ~15% drop.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

How screwed is $GOOG really?

Perplexity and OpenAI are both supposedly going to “challenge” Google’s search business, and that’s rattling investors everywhere.

This is interesting because Google’s total ad revenue in Q1 2025 was ~$67bn, and Search contributed for nearly 74% of that.

And, according to the DOJ filings in the ongoing antitrust case, about 35 % of all Google search queries originate inside Chrome, driving “billions in Search revenue.”

Meaning, three-quarters of every dollar Alphabet makes still flows through ads, most of which start in a browser tab. Every point of share that Chrome loses risks a direct dent in Alphabet’s main cash engine.

Barclays estimates a 5-point loss of Chrome share could shave >$3 B off quarterly Search sales. That’s a big dent.

However, It’s good to know that all the commotion so far is still - just commotion. For reference, Google has dominated the browser race since the introduction of chrome in 2008, with a ~68% global share. The next in line is Edge with a ~13% share.

Additionally: "Historically, only ~20% of Google searches were monetizable. With Al-driven personalization and intent inference, this funnel is expanding."

Coming to the ~15% drop in $GOOG, Q1 saw double-digit top-line growth and a fat 34 % operating margin for Alphabet. Yet sentiment is ruled by forward risk, and the stock is now priced at ~17x forward earnings.

The public sentiment about who’s leading the AI race changes every other week, but Google’s Gemini is almost never last in any list. This, combined with Google’s already pretty big stronghold on the search and browser business means they have a significant advantage over the competition when it comes to AI and browsers. (it’s pretty well known that Google has implemented AI into chrome for a good while now)

Search(ads) and browsers are Google’s moats. Google knows this, and they haven’t stopped innovating.

Looking ahead, the hard catalyst is the antitrust ruling for Chrome in August. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s browser is supposedly weeks away, and Perplexity’s ‘Comet’ is already in Public Beta.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments below👇


Summary: Bullish rebound setup on both NVO and LLY: duopoly controls 90%+ of GLP-1 market, supply constrained, $150B TAM in 5 years.

Here is an interesting rebound setup:

( $NVO) Novo Nordisk is down 50% due to competition from ( $LLY) Eli Lilly, and Eli Lilly is down 15% due to Novo Nordisk.

But combined, they control 90%+ of the GLP-1 market both globally and in the U.S.

Currently, neither of them can make enough medicine to satisfy the demand.

Finally, just the GLP-1 market is expected to reach $150 billion in the next 5 years.


I feel their performance as a whole will become apparent in the earnings when they release the sales of their new Instinct MI350 series GPUs. If it holds up the performance in the real world, it will take away a huge chunk of revenue from Nvidia.

Summary: Bullish AMD into upcoming earnings on MI350 GPU cycle; rejects overrated label, sees significant Nvidia revenue displacement ahead.

Calling $AMD overrated just because they're competing with Nvidia doesn't seem correct.

I feel their performance as a whole will become apparent in the earnings when they release the sales of their new Instinct MI350 series GPUs.

For reference, AMD claims these chips have 60% more memory than Nvidia chips, and can create 40% more generated tokens for every dollar spent.

If it holds up the performance in the real world, it will take away a huge chunk of revenue from Nvidia.

These are IMO most overrated stocks in the market:

- $PLTR, looks like the company is growing in this AI bull market, but its not growing even close enough to justify its valuation.. its also highly reliable on donatios of the gov. Once we are out of the bull market this had


Summary: Shares Wells Fargo's raised PT of $210 on AMD, currently at $155, boosted by potential MI308 China shipment restart.

Wells Fargo has raised $AMD target price to $210.

It’s currently trading at $155!

This comes after AMD could restart its shipments of MI308 chips to China

$AMD is the second biggest winner in my portfolio, up 15.44% since my analysis

[tracker link in comments] https://t.co/wADIw8gi1J


Summary: Endorses ASML's monopoly on EUV as indispensable to AI-era chip manufacturing; implicitly bullish.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

@MGStockTalk Without ASML's EUV technology, it would be impossible to manufacture the world’s most powerful silicon chips – the kinds powering the current AI boom.

The trajectory of our computational advancement is concentrated in the hands of a provider with a 100% monopoly.

This morning I bought $ASML.

I don't have a model, I don't have a fancy DCF, I don't have an earnings forecast or some price target.

Earlier this year I read "Focus: The ASML Way" by Marc Hijink. My takeaway: $ASML has a monopoly on the world's most important technology, and if https://t.co/xNefgPIElA


This is the biggest market overreaction I can remember in a while - and probably the biggest buying opportunity... this is a good time to add to the position

Summary: Strong buy on ASML after ~11.5% post-earnings drop; 2030 DCF implies $1,500/share (13.5% CAGR), market overreacted to short-term 2026 concerns while ignoring long-term growth.

$ASML has now dropped ~11.5% since its earnings! This is the biggest market overreaction I can remember in a while - and probably the biggest buying opportunity.

ASML rocked their earnings - coming in with a double beat. Even their most important metric (arguably) - Net Bookings, almost doubled since Q1.

But the market ignored all of this to focus on their short term concerns. ASML’s management were concerned about their growth in 2026, mainly due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

This is fair, because in the ongoing climate - you can’t really guarantee growth.

But everyone seemed to ignore their optimism for long-term growth:

Doing a quick back-of-the-envelope valuation:

• 2030 revenue of $60bn (management midpoint), keeping the net profit margin at 30% and share buyback at 1% (current buyback pace).

• Assuming no valuation gain (exit PE of 30x), we will get a 2030 target price close to $1,500, which is a 13.5% CAGR, which leaves us with enough margin of safety.

These are pretty good results even on conservative estimates.

Going over the earnings and the investor call, it’s clear that the market has severely overreacted.

In my deep dive, I mentioned that you should open a small position and gradually increase it depending on the landscape of AI and the U.S.-China relations.

That still stands (and this is a good time to add to the position).

The AI industry is growing rapidly, with power and efficiency at its core. Companies like Nvidia and AMD are designing increasingly advanced chips than ever before.

At the same time, companies like Samsung and TSMC are handling the manufacturing side, meeting the growing demand for AI.

But there’s only one company making the tools to enable that — and they have zero competition.


Summary: Bullish GOOGL: AI threat to search is overstated; Google's ad moat, ecosystem, and Gemini integration make it the long-term search winner.

Search is $GOOGL Google’s biggest earner. They made $50Bn just from search in Q1 '25.

But recently, they’ve come under fire for losing the market share to Open AI and Perplexity.

If you still buy that, read this post.

The only speculation for Google’s earnings is their search business. The main argument against Google Search is the effect on revenue once AI is fully integrated, and widely adopted.

Will manual search still prevail, when you could instead get a more immersive and direct search experience?

This is a layered discussion.

1/ If the danger is that Chat GPT and other LLMs are gonna cannibalize Google Search - then it’s a non-issue.

As it stands, there’s several issues that need to be addressed before LLMs can even begin to seriously replace Google in search. Hallucinations, inability to handle high-intent commercial queries and the lack of a platform (like a browser, which Google dominates too) to name a few.

Even beyond this, Google dominates the ads market in search. It has been for the most part since the existence of search and online ads. Over 55% of Google’s business is search.

If anyone can solve this problem, it’s probably Google with Gemini. Google already has a massive advertiser base, and offers tools like PPC infrastructure and ROI optimization. These are not just conveniences, they’re mini-moats.

Advertisers are more likely to continue partnering with Google even if the LLMs were to become the primary mode of search because of their existing relationship with Google search.

2/ If the argument is that AI itself(even Google’s own AI) is going to destroy search, then it’s still not as big an issue as most would have you believe.

It's important to understand that AI opens more doors for Google Search than it closes. AI even expands Google’s monetizable search volume:
AI can help Google increase its revenue through various innovations already underway - like the integration of Gemini in every single Google product from Chrome to Google Workspace. Nobody has the ecosystem and AI prowess combination that Google does.

Gemini is even being integrated into android phones, which are used by ~3 billion people online. Think asking your phone directly to help you out with your diet plan to then being served ads for gym equipment. AI is just another for Google, thanks to their deeply integrated ecosystem.

It’s still not 100% clear where the search industry is headed - it won’t be for a couple of years at least. But wherever it goes, Google will come out on top.


Summary: Bullish AMD and ASML on U.S. data-center expansion and GPU supercluster buildout by xAI and Meta.

The U.S. Currently Holds 44% of Global Data Center Power.

That's only gonna go up.

Both XAi and Meta have announced their plans for expansion of their GPU superclusters including AMD and Nvidia.

The future is looking electric for $AMD and $ASML https://t.co/NHQVESo4qp


Summary: Bullish ASML: key headwind behind weak guidance (tariffs on semi equipment) removed by EU-US trade deal.

The biggest reason for weak guidance from $ASML just got negated.

No more tariffs on semiconductor equipment in the new EU deal with the U.S. https://t.co/p1muDQBz6z


Tesla is a falling knife. Tesla's autonomous driving isn't safe, let alone scalable. Tesla's fundamentals are all over the place, and so is their guidance.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: robotaxi is PR not product, AV tech unsafe/unscalable, earnings missed across the board, margins down 35% YoY, guidance unreliable.

3 weeks ago, I  wrote about why $TSLA Tesla is a falling knife.

Last week, after their earnings, it became clear why. And the stock is down 5% since.
However, not all drawdowns are equal, and not every company that goes down can come back up:

The launch of robotaxi in Austin was more PR than a demo of autonomous driving.

Tesla’s  autonomous driving isn’t safe, let alone scalable. It still relies on only visual tech, which is bound to fail more than LiDAR - and yet, Tesla uses it.

The system, even after ‘years’ in development and promises, still runs red lights, veers into different lanes and requires frequent driver intervention.

It’s way off being truly autonomous, like Elon has been promising.

And this didn’t fly well with investors. After all, years of resources, effort and promises only led to a system that is nowhere close to being finished, let alone competing with their competition.

Unlike Waymo, which just logged 10 million unsupervised miles, Tesla is still stuck needing human intervention.

Much like Blackberry when Apple released their iPhone, Tesla has been disrupted in this segment.

It’s not just robotaxi, Tesla's entire business is underperforming. Here’s a snapshot of their earnings:

• EPS (non-GAAP): $0.33 vs. $0.39 est
• Revenue: $22.5 vs. $22.7B est
• Net income (GAAP): $1.17 billion

Even the margins fell 35% YoY.
Even production has taken a hit. Tesla produced ~410,000 cars and delivered only 384,000, down 14% YoY.

Even Elon warned about the possibility of the upcoming quarters being rough. Naturally, along came a new set of promises like:

• Robotaxi would be ready and available to half of U.S. by the end of next year
• A new sub $30,000 car will enter production soon
• Optimus (robot) would be the next big thing

Tesla’s fundamentals are all over the place, and so is their guidance. Yet, the stock only dropped 8%(now 5%). There’s really no saying what the stock will do at any given moment.


Summary: Bullish on both NVO and LLY as the two dominant players in the GLP-1 market with massive revenue potential.

GLP-1 drugs are set to generate nearly double the U.S. revenue of the iPhone’s first 10 years - and there are only two companies that dominate the market. $NVO $LLY

I’m gonna tell you how you can build an optimal GLP-1 portfolio: https://t.co/LdvgThPupH


the market isn't factoring the long-term potential of their flagship products... This will directly increase the demand for $NVO Novo Nordisk

Summary: Bullish NVO and LLY long-term: FDA crackdown on unregulated GLP-1 market + direct distribution channels will drive demand recovery; market underpricing long-term GLP-1 potential.

$NVO Novo Nordisk is down 28% right now.

But the market isn’t factoring the long-term potential of their flagship products.

The GLP-1 market is projected to have $470Bn revenue by 2030!

Here’s why the stock is down, and why you should be watching closely: https://t.co/uJtsYapaWT

---

1/ Guidance Cuts

$NVO Novo Nordisk cut its full-year guidance massively. Sales guidance is down to 11% from 17% and operating profit down to 13% from 20%.

The drop comes mainly from the slow growth in Wegovy (GLP-1 drug) in the U.S. market.

Even Ozempic has underperformed due to competition from $LLY Eli Lilly and other unregulated drugs.

The cash flow forecast was also cut to $6.1B.

---

2/ Weakening Demand for GLP-1 Drugs

GLP-1 drugs face huge competition from the unregulated market in the U.S.

Unregulated drugs were originally allowed to exist due to the shortages in the GLP-1 market and the inability of both $NVO and $LLY to sustain the demand.

Despite the FDA grace period ending in May, unsafe compounded GLP-1 drugs remain widely available - and cannibalize licensed GLP-1 drugs.

The average price of the unregulated drugs is close to $199/month and licensed drugs cost anywhere from $900 to $1300.

Thus, competing with the unregulated market is incredibly challenging.

$NVO Novo has started pursuing legal action against but warns that without government intervention, patient safety and demand will continue to suffer.

---

Overall, the investor sentiment is undoubtedly shaken.

Novo isn’t able to guarantee a good sales forecast for the future, without external help. The lack of hedging by Novo doesn’t imbibe investor confidence (rightfully so)

But, since the FDA grace period for unregulated drugs has ended, the government should start cracking down on the unlawful market - and at least begin reducing that supply.

This will directly increase the demand for $NVO Novo Nordisk and $LLY Eli Lilly.

Additionally, Novo’s initiatives to distribute the drugs directly to the patients through their channels like Novocare are showing significant promise.

The weekly prescriptions are now at a total of 31,000.

Both of these factors show significant promise in GLP-1 sales for the long-term.

---

I research and analyze world-class stocks in a major drawdown, with excellent rebound potential.

Follow me if you found this post insightful, and retweet to share it with others!


This will directly increase the demand for $NVO Novo Nordisk and $LLY Eli Lilly


I'm confident in FICO. Their systems are deeply integrated into the financial ecosystem.

Summary: Long FICO: deep ecosystem integration beyond mortgages, expanding software business, and strong score adoption offset regulatory headwinds.

Despite the shakeup, FICO is mostly confident. CEO Will Lansing emphasized the superior predictive power of FICO scores, calling that their core “moat.”

During the company’s Q3 2025 earnings call on July 30, executives noted that no major lenders had yet shifted to VantageScore, and they downplayed immediate competitive threats.

---

They also reiterated that the FICO Score still underpins a vast infrastructure of underwriting, risk models, and compliance processes, making any transition costly and slow.

Nonetheless, they acknowledged the FHFA’s direction and are actively engaged with regulators to ensure FICO remains a trusted standard.

---

Even though FICO is positive about their growth and their long-standing reputation in the market, the mere availability of alternatives threatens FICO to some degree.

Tomorrow, the regulation bodies could signal further policy action against FICO to promote more competition across the credit market.

It’s not in their hands, and until recently they hadn’t even hedged against this.

---

And yet I’m confident in FICO. Their systems are deeply integrated into the financial ecosystem.

Beyond mortgages, FICO scores are widely used in auto lending, credit cards, and personal loans. None of these areas are affected by the FHFA decision.

The company also continues to expand its software business and roll out next-gen scores like FICO 10T and BNPL-integrated models.

The results are out there, the software bookings were up 22% QoQ and down 3% YoY.


Summary: ASML below $700 is a compelling opportunity; implied bullish at current levels.

@dividendology $ASML below $700 is insane https://t.co/r4X2fZ8q00

What do you think are the best opportunities on the market right now?


The market hasn't priced this in yet. I'm gonna tell you how you can build an optimal GLP-1 portfolio

Summary: Bullish NVO and LLY on Medicaid GLP-1 coverage expanding TAM by 20M patients, not yet priced in.

Medicaid will cover GLP-1 drugs soon $NVO $LLY

That’s a 20 million increase in GLP-1’s TAM!

The market hasn't priced this in yet.

I’m gonna tell you how you can build an optimal GLP-1 portfolio: https://t.co/P9RmwsFfPc


Summary: ASML below $700 is an extraordinary bargain; implied strong buy.

@TacticzH $ASML below $700 is diabolical https://t.co/zKNPgXlJd6

Which company do you think is the best buy right now?

- $NVO at $48

- $UNH at $237

- $ASML at €595

- $GOOGL at $190

- $SOFI at $21

- $SPOT at $627

- $FICO at $1381

- $RKLB at $45

- $ZETA at $15

- $TSLA at $302


Summary: Bullish ASML as the key beneficiary; counters 'all roads lead to NVDA' with ASML instead.


Summary: Long NVO and LLY as GLP-1 dominators by 2030; bearish HIMS as compounded GLP-1s are now illegal and FDA-unapproved.

$HIMS is not a threat to the GLP-1 industry

The GLP-1 market is projected to have $470Bn revenue by 2030!

$NVO Novo Nordisk and $LLY Eli Lilly are both positioned to win

Here’s why $NVO and $LLY will come out on top: https://t.co/zKYKhCNq9W

---

1/ $HIMS can’t legally sell GLP-1

Initially, compounded GLP-1 drugs were allowed to be sold in the market due to:

a/ shortages of branded drugs.

b/ if a patient had specific needs that the branded drugs couldn’t meet.

$HIMS started selling compounded GLP-1 drugs during this period, and it quickly became 1/3rd of their total business.

But the shortages are over - and the FDA has officially declared that compounded drugs aren't legal anymore.

$NVO and $LLY invested billions into R&D and clinical trials to ensure the quality and safety standards of the drug.

Companies that compound these drugs, take the active ingredient from branded drugs (semaglutide in this case) and mix it with their own concoction.

These drugs aren’t FDA approved either.

---

2/ $NVO Novo Nordisk

$NVO Novo Nordisk has massive investments into the GLP-1 industry.

Apart from the billions invested into the development of the drug, they also put over $2B in production, and $4.1B into a factory in North Carolina to reduce shortages.

Additionally, Novo is in the final stages of releasing oral pills for their weight-loss drugs. These pills will directly go out through their B2C channels like Novocare - for a more direct approach.


$HIMS is not a threat to the GLP-1 industry

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic


Summary: Bullish on NVO and LLY as Medicaid/Medicare GLP-1 coverage expansion and FDA ban on compounded drugs channels demand to branded manufacturers.

4/ Overall, things are looking up for branded drug-manufacturers.

Both are advancing into producing better GLP-1 drugs, and competing fairly.

Soon, Medicaid and medicare will cover GLP-1 drugs - and with the FDA actively declaring compounded drugs illegal, the bookings should directly go towards $NVO and $LLY.

3/ $LLY Eli Lilly

$LLY Eli Lilly is gaining ground fast through tirzepatide - the active ingredient in their weight loss drugs.

Eli Lilly’s orforglipron is among the first oral small‑molecule GLP‑1s to complete Phase 3 trials, offering easier production and lower cost.

$LLY


Summary: Bullish NVO; expects it to win the legal/competitive battle over compounded semaglutide.

@mvcinvesting Looks like a snipe at $HIMS. Either way, I think $NVO comes out on top:

https://t.co/TtHpacqCRk

🚨 JUST IN: Novo Nordisk expands legal action to protect US patients from unsafe, non-FDA-approved compounded semaglutide.

$NVO $HIMS

- The company has filed more than 130 lawsuits across 40 states, resulting in 44 permanent injunctions to stop unsafe, illegal marketing and https://t.co/ezPlQ9yxxD


Summary: Maintains buy rating on AMD; data-center weakness is temporary as MI350 deployment only began in June, with results expected next quarter.

Let’s talk about $AMD AMD.

AMD stock is down 10% in 5 days - after the earnings.

While they had a revenue beat, the all-important data center revenue dropped by 13% QoQ and was only up 14% YoY
Since my thesis for the AMD buy rating was based on expected growth in data center revenue due to their new MI350 chips, does the latest data change it?

No - at least till the next quarter.

The MI350 series began deployment in data centers in June. Thus, the performance and results haven't been realized yet.
Coming to the numbers, revenue went up 2.7% QoQ and 32% YoY. Net profit was up 23% QoQ and 229% YoY!

All segments did well mostly, but client and gaming did exceptionally well - 69% and 362% respectively.

The guidance is positive too. $AMD expects the revenue to increase 28% YoY and gross margin by 54% YoY.


Summary: MFN drug pricing policy will crash US healthcare stocks by forcing Medicare to match lowest peer-nation drug prices, hitting NVO, LLY, MRK, BMY.

Trump's Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy will crash the U.S. healthcare stocks.

Medicare will be forced to pay the lowest drug price paid by peer nations.

The U.S. drug prices for many medications are 4–5 times those in peer-developed markets:

$NVO $LLY $MRK $BMY https://t.co/t8qu1xolkE


Summary: Bullish UNH on scale, pricing power, market dominance, insider buying, and low 11x P/E.

Institutional investors currently own 88% of $UNH Stock.

The purchasing from several funds is heating up again.

Even insider buying is spiking, with CEO Stephen J. Hemsley buying close $25M worth of UNH stocks.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise when you see UnitedHealth’s scale, pricing power, and market dominance.

Add to that the low P/E ratio (11x) and it starts to sense.


Does that make it a good buy? ... the stock rebounded all times ... Trade Desk's customers from the largest categories like e-commerce, are competitors of Amazon, and most likely wouldn't want to share their data with Amazon

Summary: Implicitly bullish TTD after 60% drawdown: Amazon threat overstated, Kokai AI driving 95% retention, historical drawdowns all reversed.

$TTD The Trade Desk is down 60%. Does that make it a good buy?

For context, TTD has been through several drawdowns over the years:

1/ During the 2020 pandemic, it fell 46%
2/ In early 2021, it fell 20% in just 2 days
3/ In early 2022, the stock fell nearly 60% (!)

The drawdowns were justified through various specific reasons (full report link in comments), and therefore the stock rebounded all times.

Currently, it fell ~40% just after the earnings (due to weak guidance)

Additionally, investors feel Amazon poses a significant risk to the TTD’s growth model in the long run.

But this shouldn’t be a threat since Trade Desk’s customers from the largest categories like e-commerce, are competitors of Amazon, and most likely wouldn’t want to share their data with Amazon.

This, combined with Trade Desk’s proprietary AI solutions like Kokai are helping in boosting customer retention (95% gross retention)

To read more about TTD, and my recommendation, read the full report below:


We're tracking 3 of these stocks in our rebound portfolio

Summary: Long TTD, UNH, and FICO as rebound plays; all in portfolio despite steep YTD declines, supported by strong fundamentals.

The worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year.

We’re tracking 3 of these stocks in our rebound portfolio:

a/ $TTD The Trade Desk: -61%
The balance sheet is very strong with $1.7 billion in cash & short-term investments with zero debt.

Last month, the company reported a 25% YoY growth in revenue and margins expansion to 8%. The forward guidance projects continued growth for Q2’25.
b/ $UNH UnitedHealth: -57%
Company fundamentals are still growing — Revenue went up 10% YoY and memberships increased by 780,000.

Strong balance sheet with $79 billion in cash with $5.5 billion in free-cash-flow per quarter.
c/ $FICO Fair Isaac Corp: -33%
FICO’s dominance and decades-long relationships might mean that lenders might not be willing to risk their money for an additional $1.45 per application, to the competition.


this is just the beginning. The market still hasn't priced everything. Novo is going to take the lead again in the GLP-1 industry

Summary: Bullish NVO: FDA MASH approval for Wegovy opens major new market beyond weight loss; market hasn't fully priced the upside yet.

$NVO Novo Nordisk is up 10% pre-market!

And this is just the beginning.

The market still hasn’t priced everything.

Novo is going to take the lead again in the GLP-1 industry.

Here’s why the stock is up, and why you should watch closely: https://t.co/tBnmJoxHPa

---

1/ FDA approval for MASH

This is a big step for $NVO.

Wegovy has been approved by the FDA to treat MASH (1 in 20 US adults suffer from this disease that affects the liver)
This makes Wegovy the first GLP-1 drug approved for treating MASH!

Results (after 72 week trial):

• 63% of the patients treated with Wegovy were achieved complete resolution of liver inflammation (steatohepatitis) (vs. 34% on placebo)

• 37% of the patients showed improvement in their liver fibrosis (vs. 22% on placebo)

• 33% achieved both resolution of steatohepatitis and fibrosis improvement through Wegovy

This is fascinating because this opens up a major market for $NVO Novo for Wegovy beyond its weight-loss applications.

Expect the Wegovy subscriptions to have a massive turnaround.


This should put a rest to everyone saying $GOOG Google's AI is eating its own search business. This is simply not true.

Summary: Bullish GOOG: AI-driven SEO shift is a win-win, not a threat — higher-conversion traffic + ability to charge premium ad rates.

$GRPN Groupon CEO says their traditional SEO traffic is declining due to AI. $GOOG
But the overall effect is still positive.

This should put a rest to everyone saying $GOOG Google’s AI is eating its own search business

This is simply not true.

SEO won’t die, it’ll just cater and optimize for a completely different algorithm

Here’s what I think will happen:

As the CEO of Groupon described, they’ve begun optimizing to show up on LLM chatbots results now, to show up as sources for queries.

Additionally, the users that come in through these links have higher conversion rates than the traditional audiences.

And this is a situation that 9/10 companies would pick, over higher traffic but lower conversions.

This is a win-win for both Google and the advertisers since Google should be able to charge a higher fee for a more concentrated user, and the advertiser would pay more for the same reason.

As for other LLMs like ChatGPT and Perplexity, they’re actually expanding search for Google instead of replacing it (see image 2)


Summary: Bullish NVO: direct-channel pricing preserves revenue, price cuts counter compounders and create a MFN-compatible middle ground.

$NVO Novo Nordisk is now taking compounders head on. They’ve cut down the prices of Ozempic by 50% - down to $499 now. They also reduced the prices of Wegovy to $499.

Currently, there’s ~1 million patients using compounded versions of GLP-1 drugs.

The prices aren’t closer to the compounded prices but they’re still competitive, given how these drugs are FDA approved.

Novo kept these prices for the patients that purchase directly from them through channels like Novocare. This should enable them to keep more of their revenue, since they control most of the supply chain.

However, this isn’t the entire story.

The price reduction also helps Novo subside the Most Favored Nation (MFN) policy implemented by Trump. This way, Novo has created a middle-ground for their international and U.S. drug pricing.

By reducing the prices of the drugs, Novo can now increase the prices of the drugs internationally, but not exponentially since they only have to match the U.S. prices.


AMD is actually in a pretty good position with their GPUs. Recently, Tiny Corp claimed that AMD has nearly closed the software gap with Nvidia. AI hyperscalers(like Meta and xAI) are already integrating AMD into their workforce

Summary: Bullish AMD on GPU momentum: software gap nearly closed, hyperscalers integrating AMD, could challenge Nvidia if it slips.

Intel $INTC is up 16.8% this week (6% in just the past 2 days) !

This is primarily because Softbank invested $2B for a roughly 2% stake in the company. And, reports of Trump admin looking to get involved (for a 10% stake in the company)

This has directly caused $AMD AMD shares to fall 7% this past week.
I don’t think investors understand what’s really going on behind the scenes.

What Trump really wants is for more of the foundry business to come to the U.S., as opposed to Intel gaining the CPU market back from AMD.

More evidence of this is the government giving grants to TSMC for their Arizona factory.

On the other hand, AMD is actually in a pretty good position with their GPUs.

Recently, Tiny Corp claimed that AMD has nearly closed the software gap with Nvidia.

So much so that if Nvidia slips up even one generation, AMD could do to Nvidia what it did to Intel.
I can believe that, given that AI is at such a pivotal junction. AI hyperscalers(like Meta and xAI) are already integrating AMD into their workforce, and are actively looking to accumulate as many GPUs as they can.

The major gap here, beyond hardware capabilities, was also the software integration.

If AMD is able to close that gap, then Nvidia wouldn’t have a hanging ‘moat’ over AMD anymore.


Summary: Long FICO on durable moat: switching costs for lenders far exceed marginal price increases; toll-collector economics.

$FICO FICO is the quintessential stock for why I started Rebound Capital.

Like I’d mentioned in my original thesis, $FICO is a quality company with an incredibly strong moat.

They’ve had the dominance for decades, and it’s highly unusual for them to be in a drawdown.

As Dev (Portfolio Manager of Valley Forge Capital Management) says, $FICO is well integrated with several lenders, to the point where it’s basically the industry standard now.
And in my opinion, this could be their moat now.

The bottom line is that shifting entire workflows, and adapting to new policies for big lenders is going to cost way more than the additional $1.45 that FICO is charging per score.

It’s classic toll-collector economics.

When the price difference between calculating the score is less than a percent of an average transaction, the lenders will consider factors like stability, credibility, and relationships instead of cost - where FICO has an undeniable hold.

In short, long FICO.


Summary: Bullish RDDT; expects another earnings beat next quarter after 70% rise post-Q2 crush.

I don’t think I’ve seen any other stock fly under the radar this much

$RDDT shot up 70% ever since my report on it, after crushing its Q2 earnings.

And they’re gonna do it again next quarter.

Here’s what nobody’s seeing: https://t.co/XTa2O1ZxV1


the market isn't pricing in their AI innovation, called Kokai

Summary: Bullish TTD: market underprices Kokai AI product despite weak guidance; Samsung Europe result shows 43% growth uplift.

$TTD is down 61% from its ATH.

This is due to their weaker guidance(14% growth) compared to expectations

But the market isn’t pricing in their AI innovation, called Kokai.

This product single-handedly gave Samsung a 43% boost in growth across Europe.

Here’s what the market’s missing:


Summary: Bullish NVO: international expansion (UK sales +2600%, strong emerging market/China share) and new CEO signal underappreciated global GLP-1 growth.

60% of $NVO Novo’s revenue comes from North America.

But that’s going to change soon.

Recently, their sales in the U.K. spiked 27x (2600%+), and several first-time users.

Investors are too focused on their business within the U.S. to realise their prowess internationally:

(Market share)
Emerging markets: +56%
Europe + Canada: 63%
APAC: 54%
China: 81% (!)

Additionally, Maziar Mike Doustdar who headed the international sales until now, recently got promoted to CEO.

All fascinating signals that $NVO Novo’s management knows the importance of the rest of the world for GLP-1 drugs.

All eyes on how they handle the Most Favorable Nation (MFN) policy now 👀


Summary: Bullish on ASML (dominant semiconductor equipment monopoly) after -30% drawdown; signals it's a buying opportunity to watch.

Every iPhone, every console, and even every query to ChatGPT, in a way, pays a toll to this company.

They’re the biggest company that makes the equipment to make semiconductor chips.

And, they have zero competition.

Their stock is down -30% right now.

This is why you should be watching:


Summary: Bullish GOOG: currently undervalued; Chrome divestiture overhang removal would re-rate the stock higher.

Let’s just take a moment to see how crazy $GOOG Google has been since earnings:

The DOJ news will decide the future (short-term at least).

If Chrome isn't looming over Google anymore, the stock won't be as undervalued as it is now.


Novo Nordisk is the gift that just keeps on giving. Things are slowly turning around now and they are in Novo's favor.

Summary: Bullish NVO on STEER trial showing Wegovy cuts CV events 57% vs tirzepatide; Lilly's LLY loses ground on the cardiovascular protection narrative.

Novo Nordisk is the gift that just keeps on giving

The results are in, STEER (trials) demonstrates that Wegovy cuts the risk of heart attack, stroke or death by 57% (in patients suffering from obesity) when compared to Lilly’s tirzepatide

2 out of 3 deaths from heart diseases are due to obesity. It’s the leading cause of disability worldwide.

Zepbound may still be stronger on pure weight loss, but if patients prioritize cardiovascular protection, Wegovy looks like the safer long-term bet.

Things are slowly turning around now and they are in Novo's favor.

$NVO $LLY


Zepbound may still be stronger on pure weight loss, but if patients prioritize cardiovascular protection, Wegovy looks like the safer long-term bet.


Summary: Long ASML on unassailable lithography moat — China 20 years behind, pricing power across every node from 5nm to 2nm.

Morgan Stanley released an incredible finding about ASML today.

China is at least 20 years behind in lithography tech, and they’re the closest competition.

It’s crazy, because 20 years ago ASML was here:

There’s a lot for the competition to catch-up, and by then ASML will be much further off.

Every step in the semiconductor industry runs through ASML’s moat - from 5nm to 2nm processors.

That's the most optimal form of pricing power in any industry.

Long $ASML.


the demand should make a return. Additionally, LVMH's reducing CapEx but stable revenues... ability to simplify their cost structure, and achieve higher long-term margins over time

Summary: Long LVMH: Chinese demand engagement, easing tariffs, US manufacturing investment, and improving cost structure point to higher margins ahead.

LVMH is going up at an incredible pace (+13% this month alone)

The biggest catalyst was the new finding from HSBC Holdings.

While the American customers are facing short-term hurdles, the Chinese customers are bound to become more engaged.

But that alone isn’t the catalyst.

In my analysis, the chart for European spending on luxury items peaked in February, and is 21pp below that high.

This was primarily due to the introduction of tariffs, and the cut-back in spending on tourism in Europe.

As those restrictions are loosening, along with $LVMH investing in manufacturing in the U.S., the demand should make a return.

Additionally, in the chart below, a great signal is LVMH’s reducing CapEx but stable revenues.

That shows LVMH’s ability to simplify their cost structure, and achieve higher long-term margins over time.

Track LVMH, and other quality stocks in my rebound watchlist below:


Summary: Long GOOG; author agrees with BofA that it remains undervalued, sees fair value ~$276 on PE re-rating + AI/Cloud/YouTube upside.

BofA released an incredible finding recently:

Google $GOOG is still undervalued after its rally.

The market hasn’t priced its individual businesses yet.

I agree. Here’s why Google has more potential still:

Historically, Google has traded at a slight premium to the rest of the market:

10-year average: 22x forward PE vs. 18x for the S&P 500

However, recently, it has been at a discount.

$GOOG had been trading at 20x as of 9/2/25; adjusting for the bump recently, that's still only 21.8x, compared to the S&P 500's 22x.

If Google re-rates to a 4-point premium (26x vs. 22x), consistent with its historical positioning and superior growth profile, that would imply a fair value of ~$276!

In my opinion, this should be the base case.

The bull case is that Google comes out on top in the AI race.

It's not a far fetched thought.

For example, their Cloud business alone grew 32% QoQ in Q2 2025.

That’s just one division. They’ve still got Youtube, search, and other bets to capitalize on with AI.

Google “winning” AI is a  realistic possibility, although one that does not provide for any margin of safety.


only one company is doing that - Google. $GOOG … Google will win again

Summary: Bullish GOOG: only company conquering all 3 AI pillars (hardware, models, distribution), positioned to win the AI race.

I’m convinced that only one company will win the AI arms race.

It’s simple.

There are three pillars of the AI ecosystem - Hardware, Models and Distribution.

Conquering all 3 means you’ve won the AI race.

And currently, only one company is doing that - Google. $GOOG

Google has time and again displayed its capability to be a leader in trillion dollar market.

And I believe, with AI, Google will win again.

To expand on this further, I created a 2-part report breaking-down and fairly valuing Google.

The first part is out now, for free:


I'm convinced that Adobe will adapt AI into its services faster than challengers can displace them

Summary: Bullish ADBE post-earnings: AI integration will outpace competitive displacement.

Is $ADBE Adobe a good buy right now?

When I first started looking at Adobe, it was one of the worst-performing large-cap tech stocks.

Down 25% in 2024 and another 23% in 2025.

But, after their earnings call, I’m convinced that Adobe will adapt AI into its services faster than challengers can displace them 👇


Google is still so undervalued right now… I've bought more Google today

Summary: Added to Google long; sum-of-parts analysis shows deep undervaluation even accounting for elevated capex.

Google is still so undervalued right now.

I just did a Sum-of-parts evaluation, and it’s nuts how Google is trading at this valuation.

“But capex!” - yup, and that’s the point.

Thus, I’ve bought more Google today.

You can play around with my models where I valued Google (with your own assumptions) to understand the valuation (model attached in the link)


UNH is moving in the right direction. If UNH's analysis is correct, both the insurer and customers win. The hallmark of a great business.

Summary: Bullish UNH: star ratings boost revenue, forecast maintained, acquisitions covered; called a great business moving in the right direction.

$UNH is up 11% this week, and 38% this month alone!

What changed?

UNH revealed that about 78% of members could be enrolled in plans with four stars or higher for the 2027 payment year.

The CMS assigns these ratings, and plans that score four stars or better qualify for bonus payments, which can boost revenue for insurers.

In this case, UNH.

Additionally, UNH maintained its forecast for the year, which is a great signal for the company.

It’s still slightly below analyst expectations but it covers their recent acquisitions like Amedisys.

Overall, UNH is moving in the right direction.

If UNH’s analysis is correct, both the insurer and customers win.

The hallmark of a great business.


Summary: Bullish ASML; momentum building and fundamentals will eventually be reflected in the price.

$ASML is quietly up 9% past week and 16% over the last month.

Eventually, the stock price has to reflect its fundamentals. https://t.co/NBTU2Jj2iC

Every iPhone, every console, and even every query to ChatGPT, in a way, pays a toll to this company.

They’re the biggest company that makes the equipment to make semiconductor chips.

And, they have zero competition.

Their stock is down -30% right now.

This is why you https://t.co/qX1X63LRzy


Summary: Long GOOG on data centre demand tripling by 2030, with Google Cloud growing 30% QoQ from 12% market share.

According to Mckinsey, data centre demand will nearly 3x by 2030.

70% of that will come from AI.

In my eyes, one stock has the potential to be at the forefront of this.

And that’s Google.

Google cloud is only 12% of the market right now. But it’s growing 30% QoQ.

Can you imagine where it’ll be in 2030?

This is just cloud growth. Google is expanding everywhere.

We’re still early. Long $GOOG.


Summary: Long GOOG: Gemini-Chrome integration beats Perplexity/OpenAI browsers to AI-first search, antitrust win unleashes execution speed.

Google just solved the final piece of the puzzle.

Weeks after winning the anti-trust suit, Google has now fully integrated Gemini into Chrome.

Perplexity and OpenAI's browsers were meant to disrupt Google with their AI-first approach.

Google just beat them to it.

It's incredible the speed and consistency at which this company can move when it's unleashed.

Long $GOOG


Summary: Bullish GOOG: distribution advantage via TV deployment is why Google wins the AI race vs OpenAI.

This is exactly what I was talking about when I said Google wins because of distribution.

OpenAI (or anyone else) could never so widely deploy on your something like your TV 🤷♀

$GOOG https://t.co/H0fm7vr9Ao

Today, we’re introducing Gemini for Google TV, so you can talk more naturally to the big screen to find the perfect movie, brainstorm a family trip or get help with studying. Just say “Hey Google” or press the microphone button on your TV remote.


These value picks held their ground as the markets fell yesterday … With literally ~0 competition, it's still baffling how wide the moat for this company is.

Summary: Bullish ASML as a value pick with an unrivaled moat and zero competition in lithography equipment.

These value picks held their ground as the markets fell yesterday

1/ $ASML: With literally ~0 competition, it’s still baffling how wide the moat for this company is.

They manufacture machines that are used to create the silicon for GPUs and chips in most modern devices. https://t.co/ahF0N9gGNL


Summary: Bullish GOOG on rapidly accelerating MoM traffic to Google's AI domains.

Incredibly Bullish $GOOG

MoM traffic for Google's AI domains is increasing at an incredible rate. https://t.co/hdop612MEr


Summary: Shares Pershing Square's bullish NKE thesis: margins depressed but will recover to historical levels over several years.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square released an investor update on $NKE Nike.

"While Nike’s margins are currently depressed due to intentional actions taken to effectuate the turnaround, we believe the company can return to historical levels of profitability over the next several years"


Summary: Long ADBE: AI image generation still far from replacing professional editing software, plateau in AI progress protects Adobe's moat.

I'm long $ADBE Adobe for 3 reasons [thesis]:

1/ AI Image Generation:

While the AI image generation is good, it's still way off from generating professional-quality images.

With the plateauing progress in AI (for those who were tracking, GPT-5 was supposed to be AGI), it does not look like the models will replace professional editing software in the near future.


Summary: Bullish GOOG as end-to-end AI juggernaut, bolstered by Jensen Huang praising Google's TPUs.

"Google is really special...We have to show respect" - Jensen Huang $NVDA CEO

Doesn't get better than this for Google's TPUs

$GOOG is really just gonna be an end-to-end AI juggernaut https://t.co/6LOrv0kyUR


Summary: Bearish on LULU (unclear sales decline + trade war), FIG (25x P/S far above intrinsic value), and MRVL; none expected to rebound.

Not all drawdowns are equal.

For example, I don't think $LULU, $MRVL and $FIG will rebound.

Here's why:

$LULU - Lululemon :

Difficult to understand why they're losing sales:

The recent drop in U.S. sales could be due to weakening consumer sentiment, a loss of brand relevance, increased competition, or a combination of these factors.

Because the exact cause of the sales decline is unclear, we are not able to model and value the company.

Add to this, there seems to be no end to the ongoing trade war, and $LULU profitability will continue to be affected.

---

$FIG - Figma

Nose Bleed Valuation:

While Figma has a solid business model and a long growth runway, its valuation is a major concern.

It's trading at roughly 25x its price-to-sales multiple, significantly higher than the typical 4x to 12x for most software companies.

This valuation already prices in many years of future growth, placing the stock far above its intrinsic value.

We'd consider buying at a more reasonable 10x to 15x price-to-sales multiple.


This valuation already prices in many years of future growth, placing the stock far above its intrinsic value


Summary: Bullish NVO: tariff impact minor since Novo is building in USA; stock at $55 seen as attractive entry.

The good news for all $NVO investors is that Novo is building in the USA.

The effects should be minor.

🚨 The stock is already at $55 🚨

Great time to start building a position!

Tariff man is back with some new tariffs. 😂 https://t.co/ERfdu9Et6r


The company's key advantages… are beginning to meaningfully widen Google's moat and competitive differentiation in AI.

Summary: Shares Pershing Square's bullish thesis on Google: AI moat widening via models, chips, data, and 2B-user distribution.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square released an investor update on $GOOG Google:

"The company’s key advantages – stemming from industry-leading models, a full-stack approach to technical infrastructure (including proprietary chips), access to high-quality data, rapidly improving product launch velocity and a robust distribution ecosystem of seven different apps with over two billion users each – are beginning to meaningfully widen Google’s moat and competitive differentiation in AI."


I'm convinced that one stock will skyrocket... $ASML is the toll collector for everyone that's trying to compete in AI

Summary: Long ASML: sole EUV vendor collects toll on all AI chip production; 42% EUV supply growth by 2028 and $1.1T equipment spend through 2030.

PwC just released their semiconductor industry outlook for 2030.

I analyzed it and I’m convinced that one stock will skyrocket.

The stock is currently in a 12% drawdown, and we’re relatively still early.

Here’s the thesis:

EUV is the only way to produce the most advanced chips that are driving the AI revolution.

And EUV is unambiguously a single-vendor market - controlled entirely by $ASML.

Simply put, $ASML is the toll collector for everyone that’s trying to compete in AI.

According to PwC, the supply of EUV equipment will rise by 42% in 2028.

Additionally, the global spending on equipment from 2024-30 will be $1.1T with just one company at the core - $ASML.


Summary: Shares/endorses Goldman Sachs Buy thesis on ASML: EUV pause temporary, DRAM adoption accelerating, China exposure manageable, AI-driven leading-edge demand strong.

Goldman Sachs buy thesis on $ASML:

"We believe the  pause in Lithography intensity is temporary, and as such see an increase in EUV  exposed layers in the subsequent nodes post the 2nm process (given it is materially  difficult to execute an architectural transition in tandem with incremental shrinkage).

Additionally, we believe that any negative impacts from this temporary pause on the  Logic side would be offset in future by accelerating EUV adoption in DRAM as  customers accelerate layer additions leveraging the 3800E tool.

Further, we see a  clear path for EUV penetration to rise further as DRAM roadmaps progress from 1β to 1γ nodes and beyond.

Meanwhile, on the Logic side, as GAA matures, customer  focus is expected to shift from architectural transition toward continued EUV shrink, supporting a renewed step-up in lithography intensity.

As such, we continue to see Lithography as a key strategic technology to manufacture smaller and more powerful chips which would be needed to fulfil the increasingly complex compute requirements going forward.

ASML recently stated that it expects a gradual normalisation of its China exposure in  coming years, with Chinese sales contributing around 20% of total revenues going forward vs mid 20s today.

We note that management’s confidence  is underpinned by healthy demand due to an emphasis on domestic production in  areas such as Automotive. While management expects China demand to soften in 2026, we view the SMIC capacity additions as a positive driver, albeit SMIC’s  ambitious approach on 7nm Logic could to some extent be balanced by a lack of access to EUV (and a long tail of smaller Chinese players has seen spend dampened  to some extent by reduced local government activity).

Further, on the positive side, incremental investment from Memory players should also impact demand levels  positively, though the US redefinition of advanced DRAM has slowed progress on cutting-edge memory ramps.

More broadly, we continue to see healthy revenue and GM margin contributions from China as the region continues to develop self-sufficiency in the semis space.  We note that recent  datapoints from our GS Communacopia conference point towards continued strong  demand for leading-edge semis specifically as a result of AI.

Furthermore, we view the Samsung and Tesla deal as a positive for ASML given it broadens the Lithography customer base (assuming Samsung is successful) and lowers ASML’s dependence  on one particular customer."


Summary: Long FICO with $1600 price target; fee doubling to $10 drives 25-30%+ revenue growth and higher operating margins.

Rebound update: $FICO

The company with 88% operating margins on its core business is about to have even higher margins, with even quicker growth.

FICO just doubled its fee to $10, from $4.95. This is a huge change for FICO, and the stock is up 21% since yesterday!

This is because FICO can now directly license its score to lenders, as opposed to bureaus that would then give it to lenders (with a markup)

$FICO will now sell two models:

1) Lenders can directly access the FICO score for $10

2) The second is a performance-based model where the lenders will pay $4.95 upfront but give $33 for a successful loan closure. This helps the lenders as previously, they paid $10 for even unsuccessful loans.

By our estimates of most of the business shifts to this model. FICO's revenue could go up by >25%-30% with an even larger increase in operating profits.

As a result, we’re revaluing FICO to $1600 per share.

After today's events:

The company with 88% OPERATING margins on its core business is about to have even higher margins, with faster growth and a wider moat

Winners keep winning.

$FICO https://t.co/LBGymNqwar


Summary: Long GOOG citing 50% Gemini traffic growth and share gains vs all other AI competitors.

From last month:

1/ $GOOG Gemini traffic has increased by 50%

2/ every other AI has either dropped share or maintained it.

Listen to the signal. Long $GOOG https://t.co/K18QZHARHQ


Summary: Dismisses the 10% selloff as overblown; ~90% market share is too entrenched to be threatened by a $5/score pricing difference.

This is the reason $FICO is down 10%?

I don't think a difference of $5/score is going to make a dent on FICO's ~90% market share.

You're going to have to make a bigger play than pricing to convince lenders to jump ship. https://t.co/csHJnXcNrL


Summary: Bullish ASML toward JPM's $2100 high case on memory-bandwidth upside and conservative guidance history.

$ASML High/low/moderate case by JPM

Best case: $2100; 35x multiple (likely)

Moderate case: $1237; 25-30x multiple (most likely)

Low case: $653; 20x multiple (very very unlikely)

I think the cases are still below what they should be for two reasons:

1. ASML has a bunch of upside in the memory-bandwidth space, especially when companies like Samsung are now using High NA for the same.

2. ASML is known to promise less in their guidance (the base for these cases)

Personally, I think ASML will end up close to the high case here.

We're already pretty close to moderate, and I'm not convinced that the stock will flatline here.

---

Photos and insight from @PythiaR


Summary: Bullish GOOG on what author calls their best quarter in 20 years; implied durable strength.

$GOOG just had their best quarter in 20 years! https://t.co/8soq8UapNs


Summary: Bullish GOOG on Google Cloud's 32% YoY growth cementing its Big Three status.

Okay but can we acknowledge how $GOOG has turned Cloud from "a Cloud-computing Upstart" to one of the"The Big Three"

It's growing 32% YoY at the moment.

Very bullish $GOOG

This is how dead AWS is:
$AMZN https://t.co/jcQhNobRoe


Summary: Bullish Google: vertical integration (models, hardware, distribution) insulates it from OpenAI instability risk that threatens the rest of the AI market.

The entire AI market, except one company, falls if OpenAI isn’t stable.

Here’s how:

Morgan Stanley reported that OpenAI makes up $330B out of $880B of contracts from Microsoft, Oracle and CoreWeave.

Basically, a lot of the AI market relies on OpenAI’s stability.

When you bring AMD and Nvidia into the picture, consider at least $50B more.

You’ll notice Google is absent from this massive equation.

That’s because Google creates its own models, hardware and distribution.

That’s independence on an entirely different scale, in an industry where $100B customer contracts are the norm.

That is why Google will keep standing, regardless of other companies.

---

Read my 2-part deep dive on Google, to understand Google’s moat:

https://open.substack.com/pub/reboundcapital/p/deep-dive-alphabet-inc-goog?r=5tpz56&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false


Summary: Holds GOOG; still considers it undervalued by own framework — bullish forward stance.

@WOLF_Financial $GOOG up 47%.

Still undervalued according to my framework.

What is the #1 best performing stock in your portfolio today?


Summary: Bullish ASML as a key enabler of AI memory bandwidth solutions via EUV/High-NA tools for next-gen HBM and DRAM.

Here's the quiet part loud from $ASML's earnings.

Memory is quickly becoming a big part of their sales.

Why?

Because hardware Memory bandwidth is becoming the choke point slowing down the entire AI market.

For reference, 100k H100 GPUs can burn close to $6M/day sitting idle due to memory-bandwidth.

$ASML can play a significant role in solving this.

Here’s how:

During 2018–2022, transformer model size grew ~240× every 2 years, while memory per accelerator grew only about 2× every 2 years.

This has pushed the entire industry into a “memory wall”.

In simple terms, the chips are processing much quicker than the memory is able to supply them with data - increasing the time per task significantly.

To solve this, ASML is already working with memory manufacturers like SK hynix to deliver EUV/High-NA tools that enable finer patterning for next-gen high-bandwidth DRAM and 3D integration.

The applications for this are massive, $MU Micron even stated that their EUV process for DRAM was 20% more power efficient and had 15% more performance.

$ASML is truly becoming a one-stop shop for all AI hardware needs.


$ASML is solving one of the slowest and most capital intensive processes in making semiconductor chips - packaging. The new XT:260 is 4x more productive than the previous generation.

Summary: Bullish ASML: new XT:260 packaging tool 4x more productive, enabling higher throughput and orders — a missed earnings catalyst.

A lot of folks are missing this in the earnings.

$ASML is solving one of the slowest and most capital intensive processes in making semiconductor chips - packaging.

$TSMC $INTC

The new XT:260 is 4x more productive than the previous generation.

It doesn't mean TSMC will suddenly package chips 4x quicker (how I wish) but the process should be much quicker allowing for more orders/month.


Summary: Bullish GOOG on owned models/distribution/hardware moat; bearish ORCL/AVGO/NVDA/AMD as OpenAI-dependent market cap at risk if ChatGPT growth slows.

This is very interesting.

The growth rate of consumers spending for ChatGPT in Europe is slowing down, per DB.
If the numbers from DB about OpenAI's growth rate are correct, it's doesn't just affect them, it affects the entire market.

It's a little scary how a lot of the market depends on OpenAI's success to remain stable.

Hypothetically, if this trend follows worldwide, all of OpenAI's investments will render meaningless. That includes the billions of dollars in market cap that pumped into $ORCL $AVGO $NVDA and $AMD.

But $GOOG will remain stable.

That's because they have their own models, distribution and hardware.

And this is Google's moat.

For example:

They've changed the pricing model of Gemini in their products like Google workspace - earlier they used to offer it as an add-on, but now included it in every plan and raised the prices.

This happened at the beginning of the year, and there hasn't been any significant drop in subscribers, publicly at least.

That's Google's moat in distribution.

And that's why I think Google will come out in the AI arms race - purely because they're single handedly competing with 5+companies and still succeeding.

---

Thanks @RihardJarc for the charts.


all of OpenAI's investments will render meaningless. That includes the billions of dollars in market cap that pumped into $ORCL $AVGO $NVDA and $AMD


Summary: Bullish ASML: earnings guidance is overly conservative; China competition threat is overstated and won't impact sales until at least 2027.

Here's why I think ASML's earnings were very conservative (as always)

1/ China's threats

China is still 2 decades behind ASML.

ASML isn't allowed to sell EUV machines to China, and still sells DUV machines which are based on an older technology.

The reports of China being building competitors to ASML are all based on the machines that ASML created in 2007: the NXT:1950i.

It could theoretically be used to create 7nm or even 5nm chips - but the caveat is that the yield would be extremely low.

To achieve this through multi patterning, ASML had developed the NXT:2000i which was generations ahead of the previous model.

Coming back, this is where China is at. Speculation is that they're testing this currently, and will start volume production in 2027 (per FT)

Meaning, even if China started in H2 of 2026, the effects of the sales shouldn't be felt until at least 2027.


Summary: Long ASML as Intel foundry buildout forces large EUV machine purchases; Intel foundry also seen benefiting from Trump support.

3/ Speculation: $INTC Intel getting deals is good for ASML

Ever since Trump got a stake at Intel, I've speculated that Intel will suddenly start doing well with the help of Trump.

Soon, Nvidia had made a surprise deal with intel(not with their foundry)

I'm still convinced that Trump will do a lot for Intel's foundry business.

And this will become an alpha for ASML.

Regardless of how Intel's foundry ends up, the set up itself will require them to compete with TSMC - who is one of the biggest customers for ASML.

This is great news, because to hit the ground running with any vendor, Intel will have to get the same machinery from ASML, and get started at scale to show that they can sustain bigger orders.

Intel was already one of the first customers to buy ASML's latest EUV machines last quarter ($350Mn/ machine) and I only expect that to go up.

---

If you found this thread insightful, you should follow me and subscribe to my newsletter (link in bio)

I release an analysis twice a week, and ASML is one of the companies I monitor closely.


I'm still convinced that Trump will do a lot for Intel's foundry business


Summary: Bullish ADBE; author believes Adobe is not being disrupted by AI.

Guys, I think $ADBE Adobe will be fine.

I don't think they're getting disrupted by AI 👍 https://t.co/4Wg65Qefm3


In my opinion, Google will win undoubtedly win the AI race. They're the only company out there that dominates all 3 elements in the AI market - Hardware, Models, and Distribution. Undoubtedly bullish $GOOG $GOOGL

Summary: Long GOOGL: dominant across AI hardware, models, and distribution makes it the clear AI race winner vs competitors like OpenAI spending billions to catch up.

$GOOG $GOOGL

You're probably seeing this image go around a lot - for good reason.

Here's some more context around it:

In my opinion, Google will win undoubtedly win the AI race.

They're the only company out there that dominates all 3 elements in the AI market - Hardware, Models, and Distribution.

It's simple really.

If you're missing either one of those, you're gonna be left behind.

Take OpenAI for example, they've gone a spending spree this past month trying to do the same -

1) Deal with Nvidia/AMD for the chips
2) Deal with oracle/Salesforce for the distribution and data centre

Billions of dollars thrown around just to compete with what Google already does in house.

And that's why Google will win this race.

I published a report last month emphasizing the same facts. Find the link in the comment to this post.

Undoubtedly bullish $GOOG $GOOGL

---

Deep dive: https://open.substack.com/pub/reboundcapital/p/deep-dive-alphabet-inc-goog?r=5tpz56&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false


This is undoubtedly bullish for Google $GOOG $GOOGL. I'm confident Waymo can scale enough to become a fantastic business under Google's umbrella.

Summary: Bullish GOOG on Waymo's ride-hailing growth potential, 200K weekly rides, DoorDash partnership, and London expansion within Google's broader ecosystem.

This is undoubtedly bullish for Google $GOOG $GOOGL

GS estimates the auto ride-hailing market will reach up to $25Bn by 2030.

And there’s just one company at the core of this - Waymo.

Waymo is Google’s subsidiary that started off as an experimental business. Now, they’re doing 200,000 rides a week.

And they’re expanding at an incredibly rapid pace.

Just last week, they announced their partnership with Doordash to start food delivery in a pilot program, and their plan to expand to London in 2026!

I’m confident Waymo can scale enough to become a fantastic business under Google’s umbrella.

They’re already dominating in several industries through Youtube, Search, Android, and LLMs, and I think the auto ride-hailing market is Google’s next big bet that’ll pay off.

To know more about Google’s other businesses, read my 2 part deep dive:

https://open.substack.com/pub/reboundcapital/p/deep-dive-alphabet-inc-goog?r=5tpz56&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false


Summary: Bullish Constellation Software: headline P/E misleading due to acquisition-driven amortization; cash flow is 3x net income and forward P/E adjusted for intangibles is only 25.

Constellation Software Inc. trades on TSX as CSU.TO

Do not ignore Constellation due to its high P/E.

At first glance, Constellation Software trades at a P/E of 90, and it makes no sense to invest in a company with such a high valuation (especially if you are a value investor).

However, if you dig a bit deeper and understand their business model, the numbers begin to make sense.

Constellation grows by acquiring companies. Part of the price of the acquired company is for intangible assets, such as customer lists, software code, and the brand. Constellation has to amortize this cost over an estimated life span (5-15 years).

This amortization cost was $1.04 billion in 2024, which was 1.4x of its net income. This is why the “E” in P/E is depressed. Meanwhile, if you look at the cash flow, the Cash Flow from Operations is 3x of their net income.

Due to the acquisitive nature of the company, it’s much better to see the economics through cash.

Finally, you can check the forward P/E for the company, which is now only at 25. For the forward P/E, earnings are adjusted for acquired intangible amortization, which reveals the actual earnings.


Here's a +40% rebound setup - $CSU Constellation Software Inc. … I've closed some of our positions to make $CSU 30% of our entire portfolio.

Summary: Long CSU: 28% drawdown mirrors prior 25% bottoms; confident drawdown reasons will subside; targeting +40% rebound; sized to 30% of portfolio.

Constellation Software listed on TSX as CSU.TO

Here’s a +40% rebound setup - $CSU Constellation Software Inc.

$CSU focuses on buying Vertical Market Software(VMS) firms that usually generate <$20M in revenue.

In the past 30 years, they’ve acquired over 500 firms.

Additionally, over the course of those years, $CSU has had 3 massive drawdowns, each close to 25%.

That’s where the stock is right now too - a 28% drawdown.

There are two main reasons for the drawdown, which I'm confident will subside.

To expand on the rebound thesis, I’ve published a 2000+ word deep dive on the stock which should give you everything you need to build your own conviction.

PS: Since the deep dive, I’ve closed some of our positions to make $CSU 30% of our entire portfolio.

https://t.co/kxENsrIuSF


Summary: Bullish Google on quantum computing dominance; surprised anyone doubted them on this.

$GOOG $GOOGL

So Google just crashed the 6 biggest players (apart from itself) in the quantum computing space.

I'm more surprised about the fact that people were betting against Google on something so major 🤷♀ https://t.co/rwKs1MYTr2


ASML is inherently the best positioned company in semiconductors. All roads lead to $ASML when it comes to semiconductors.

Summary: Long ASML as the monopoly backbone of chip manufacturing, best-positioned for the 4-6 quarter memory supply shortage driving wafer demand.

$ASML

ASML has a monopoly on the most critical tech in chip manufacturing.

The 41% share makes perfect sense when you realize there's no competition.

$ASML is inherently the best positioned company in semiconductors.

What’s more, is that ASML is also perfectly positioned for the boom in memory demand.

In a nutshell, memory manufacturers are already quoting 25% higher prices for DRAM and NAND flashes - due to the lack of supply.

This shortage is expected to last 4-6 quarters.

To catch up, you need more wafers than ever, and for more wafers you need TSMC - who ultimately rely on ASML.

All roads lead to $ASML when it comes to semiconductors.

I’ve covered $ASML thoroughly over the months, and the stock is up ~28% since then. But is it a buy right now?

I’ve explained everything in my earnings review:

https://t.co/HQfbgSmyXh


Google has yet again shown why they're the best positioned to win the AI arms race

Summary: Bullish GOOG: best positioned to win AI arms race via massive token processing scale, in-house TPU infrastructure, and new TPU cloud sales to Anthropic.

$GOOG $GOOGL

Google has yet again shown why they’re the best positioned to win the AI arms race.

Recently, Google announced that they process 1.3 quadrillion tokens/month.

OpenAI does ~260 trillion tokens/month.

This is accounting for the fact that Gemini is spread across Google’s ecosystem - from Gmail to training their flagship LLM Gemini.

And Google is able to do it without $100B deals with other companies. Completely in-house.

That’s not all. Up until now Google didn’t license the TPUs to anyone. But they are now going to sell additional GCP compute instances with TPUs to Anthropic (Claude).


Summary: Bullish NFLX: 16% ATH drawdown driven by one-time Brazil tax; ex-tax EPS would have beaten by 4.5%, making this a temporary overreaction buying opportunity.

$NFLX Netflix plunged 10% this week.

This reminds me of the market overreaction after ASML’s earnings.

$ASML stock dropped -16%, and is +45% since.

Netflix is down 16% from its ATH right now.

All of this because they got hit with a one-time tax from Brazil for $619Mn.

Here’s a back of the envelope evaluation on Netflix:

EPS: $5.87
Tax = $619 Mn
Shares = 435 Mn
Effect of tax/ share = 619,000,000/ 435,000,000 = $1.42
EPS without tax = $5.87 + $1.42 = $7.29

Without the tax break, Netflix would’ve had a 4.5% beat on the EPS.

This is a classic example of a quality stock being in a temporary drawdown.


This is so incredibly, undeniably, inevitably bullish $GOOG $GOOGL

Summary: Bullish Google on Anthropic's ~1M TPU deal securing over a gigawatt of capacity in 2026.

Today, we announced that we plan to expand our use of Google TPUs, securing approximately one million TPUs and more than a gigawatt of capacity in 2026.


Summary: Long GOOGL: dominates AI ecosystem by controlling hardware (TPUs), foundation models (Gemini), and distribution (Cloud/Search), with a valuation model supporting the thesis.

$GOOG $GOOGL

Google's Right to Win in the AI Ecosystem

Google will dominate the AI ecosystem as it is the only company that controls all three pillars of the ecosystem:

1) Infrastructure (Hardware): Google makes its own semiconductor chips. This reduces its reliance and spend on Nvidia chips and enables them to serve customers at a lower cost.

2) The Brains (Foundation Models): Google’s Gemini model is consistently top-ranked in multiple benchmarks.

3) The Reach (Distribution and Development Platforms): Alphabet has unmatched reach to both consumers via the Gemini app and web traffic and to businesses through Google Cloud.

This chart aptly shows why Alphabet has a unique advantage which no other company can match:

Now that Google is reaching ATHs, my thesis is coming true.

I have a 2-part deep-dive with a valuation model that fairly values Google through a QGV framework.

---

Read both parts here:
https://reboundcapital.substack.com/p/deep-dive-alphabet-inc-goog?selection=607eb869-3ff4-421d-86f3-7a2d90611b8f


Summary: Maintains $302/share price target on Google ahead of Q3 earnings; bullish on cloud growth and AI monetization.

Google reports Q3 today after market close.

All eyes will be on cloud revenue growth and AI market share gains/monetization.

My price target remains $302/share https://t.co/USmzQzJWqf


Google has just proven why their AI stack trumps all. This deal also showcases how far ahead Google's models are compared to the market. majorly bullish for both Google and Adobe

Summary: Adobe-Google partnership bullish for both: validates Google's AI stack lead and removes disruption overhang on Adobe.

$GOOG $GOOGL $ADBE

Google has just proven why their AI stack trumps all.

Adobe has partnered with Google to create a one-stop solution for all creators.

This deal runs through Google’s entire stack:

1. Gemini and Veo : Adobe customers will gain access to Google’s latest AI models directly within Adobe’s creative apps.

2. Vertex AI : Adobe’s enterprise customers will be able to use Google’s AI models on Google Cloud’s Vertex AI platform and apply their proprietary data for customization through Adobe Firefly Foundry.

This is majorly bullish for both Google and Adobe:

1. This can put to rest the concerns investors had about Adobe getting disrupted by AI, and

2. This deal also showcases how far ahead Google’s models are compared to the market.

I’ve published detailed deep dives with my investment thesis on both the companies.

I’m also covering Google’s earnings in detail today, in my earnings review. Get subscribed to my newsletter read that if you haven’t already!

https://t.co/WUwYoTwDT0


This can put to rest the concerns investors had about Adobe getting disrupted by AI. majorly bullish for both Google and Adobe


Summary: Bullish GOOGL: 70% of Cloud customers on AI products, B2B distribution moat, and OpenAI can't replicate Google's enterprise upsell capabilities.

$GOOG $GOOGL

Google vs ChatGPT

1/ 7B tokens per minute vs 6B/minute
2/ 650M monthly users vs 800M weekly

This is what everyone saw.

And everyone pointed out that ChatGPT is still miles ahead because of their weekly users surpassing Google's monthly.

What most investors missed, was 70% of Google Cloud's customers use their AI products.

70% paying customers.

These are B2B customers. Companies like Best Buy fully onto Google's stack.

This is the power of Google's distribution, and their ability to upsell through their moat.

I firmly believe ChatGPT won't be able to compete in this scenario.

Every collab OpenAI makes with 3rd party vendors like Spotify or PayPal, Google can make too.

But OpenAI can't do what Google's doing. That's the difference.

Full earnings breakdown for Google: [https://t.co/Bzt59mUqn9]


Summary: Long Google; AI mode dominance + 15% YoY search growth prove it will dominate search regardless of AI disruption fears.

Here's something interesting:

1/ TikTok took 9 months to reach 100 million monthly active users.

2/ ChatGPT took ~2 months.

3/ Threads took 5 days.

But Google beat all of them.

Google's AI mode in search now has 75 million DAILY active users after one quarter.

Let that sink in.

Don't forget that just a few months ago, the most popular sentiment was that AI was going to disrupt Search entirely.

Google flipped that sentiment around in just 2 quarters.

AI mode and AI overview being such massive hits in such less time just proves what I've believed in for a good while now - Google will dominate search no matter what.

Search grew ~15% YoY, and that should be signal enough for Google's future.

Full earnings review out now:
[https://open.substack.com/pub/reboundcapital/p/earnings-review-unh-and-goog?r=5tpz56&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false]

$GOOG $GOOGL


Summary: Bullish TPL: excellent business model with unrealized potential, currently in a 45% drawdown seen as opportunity after 100x 15-year run.

The chart below is NOT a meme coin

This company has generated 100x returns in the last 15 years.

That’s 4x of Apple.

And they’re currently in a 45% drawdown (not uncommon for this stock)

This is after the stock tripled in 2024 (+233%)

$TPL Texas Pacific Land Corp is one of the most polarizing companies I’ve looked into, and simultaneously one of our most requested companies recently.

The business model is excellent, and the potential is entirely unrealized.

Here’s my 2000+ word deep dive, complete with our proprietary quality rubric, our DCF model and our stock rating:

[ https://t.co/dJh3DIt1dh ]


Summary: Bullish ADBE: professional users won't churn at $70/month given the ROI; dismisses AI disruption fears.

Precisely what most casual users miss.

No one will mind paying $ADBE $70 per month if it's enabling them to make $100K per year.

As a designer, the only things you need to get your work done are Coffee, a laptop, and Adobe software.

Guys $ADBE is LITERALLY a professional software ––> you were never the target customer

And no real designer is letting AI puke out an image and call it a finished ad campaign https://t.co/TWGAhuTlVs


Summary: Bearish META: current 28x PE leaves significant downside vs 2022 trough of ~10x, with rising CapEx headwinds.

For everyone quoting $META here, the company is barely down 18%.

In 2022, Meta bottomed at ~10x PE ratio.

It's currently at 28 with Zuck guiding even faster CapEx growth for 2026.

Ok Mr. Market... time to pick another mega-cap to crush the sentiment of & pronounce dead so I can add at a discount.


highlighted Lululemon $LULU as a company that is not a good rebound prospect, as it's facing structural challenges to its business

Summary: Bearish LULU: not a rebound candidate due to structural business challenges, corroborated by founder's public critique.

It’s just as important to know what not to buy.

Two months ago, we highlighted Lululemon $LULU as a company that is not a good rebound prospect, as it’s facing structural challenges to its business.

https://reboundcapital.substack.com/p/why-all-drawdowns-are-not-equal

Last month, Chip Wilson, the founder of Lululemon, took out a full-page ad in the WSJ to highlight issues at the company.


Would $META be a 2022 redux? ... If there is an economic slowdown in 2026 (which seems likely, given all the layoffs), then advertising spending will be hit. This hit to revenue, coupled with increased CapEx spending, can further deteriorate Meta's Free Cash Flow.

Summary: Bearish META: reckless CapEx surge + AI underperformance + ad slowdown risk mirrors 2022 overspend that caused >70% drawdown.

Would $META be a 2022 redux?

The company is in a 20% drawdown as investors are once again worried about Meta's ROI.
Meta has guided to ~$71B in CapEx in 2025, up from $39B in 2024.

And now it is saying expenses will grow faster in 2026!

It's unclear why Meta needs to be so aggressive with its capital spending, especially given that Meta’s current AI models are not as good as those from Google, OpenAI, or Grok.

We are not saying the rankings are perfect, but we have yet to hear anyone say that Meta is leading in the race to super intelligence.

If there is an economic slowdown in 2026 (which seems likely, given all the layoffs), then advertising spending will be hit.

This hit to revenue, coupled with increased CapEx spending, can further deteriorate Meta’s Free Cash Flow.

There is a history of Mark Zuckerberg getting too bullish on a particular theme and overspending on it. Back in 2022, Meta fell >70% because of the CEO’s reckless spending on virtual reality (Metaverse), even as the core business was a bit weak. In 2022, Meta bottomed at ~10x PE ratio.

The stock finally recovered, but only after Mark had conveyed spending discipline to the market.


Summary: Sell AMD: valuation far ahead of fundamentals; payoff slower than expected, any execution miss will punish the stock.

$AMD is down ~5% after hours after reporting better-than-expected results.

EPS: $1.20 adjusted vs. $1.16 expected
Revenue: $9.25 billion vs. $8.74 billion expected

The reason for the drop, even after an earnings beat, is that AMD's payoff might come in slower than expected.

This is exactly why we issued a sell rating after the AMD x OpenAI deal.

The valuation has run way ahead of the fundamentals and anything other than perfect execution & guidance will cause the stock to drop.


Summary: Building a basket long in MORN, FDS, and LSEG; expects bounce-back once macro headwinds ease and Fed rate cuts boost deal activity.

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'

Financial data companies are rarely in a drawdown because their subscriptions are sticky and their revenues are stable.

But we now have a few high-quality companies in a steep drawdown.

Morningstar $MORN is down 40%
FactSet $FDS is down 45%
London Stock Exchange $LSEG is down 23%.

To put this in context, the last time $FDS was down more than 40% was during the 2008 GFC.

The key issue is that the industry as a whole is becoming more cautious about spending on data.

Macroeconomic concerns (tariffs, a cooling labour market, etc.) are forcing financial services firms to cut discretionary spending.

Slowing deal activity due to high-interest rates was also a headwind.

@rebound_capital, we are building a basket of these stocks to invest in.

We expect these companies to bounce back once macro worries are over. Also, the Fed rate cuts should be a good tailwind (more deal activity).

One final thing to show how good these businesses are:

Morningstar sells Morningstar Direct (a $15K subscription) to more than 18,000 businesses.

The annual revenue renewal rate for Morningstar Direct was 101% in 2024 and 2023.


London Stock Exchange Group trades on LSE as LSEG.L


Just because a stock is down 60% does not make it a value play... Even after the drawdown, the stock is at 76 P/E. This leaves very little room for error for the company, and growth is normalizing

Summary: Bearish DUOL despite 60% drop: still at 76x P/E with decelerating growth, won't re-rate until it proves TAM capture.

PSA: Just because a stock is down 60% does not make it a value play (even if you like the product)

Just 4 months back, $DUOL was trading at a very reasonable P/E of.. check notes.. 168.

Even after the drawdown, the stock is at 76 P/E.

This leaves very little room for error for the company, and growth is normalizing with the latest quarter showing mid-30% YoY compared to 50%+ earlier this year.

The stock won't re-rate until the company can demonstrate it can capture the massive TAM in Chess and reaccelerate growth.

I’ve long been a DAU on @duolingo (love chess) but it’s been interesting to see their stock battered this year, in part because people worry AI hurts the business both via real-time translation reducing language learning and lowering barriers of competitor entry.

IMO translation https://t.co/HHS830wREN


Summary: Shares Berkshire's $4.3B Alphabet stake alongside bullish AI thesis; implied endorsement of GOOGL long.

Berkshire Hathaway has just purchased a $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet, $GOOGL. https://t.co/JQhTkZzkB5

I’m convinced that only one company will win the AI arms race.

It’s simple.

There are three pillars of the AI ecosystem - Hardware, Models and Distribution.

Conquering all 3 means you’ve won the AI race.

And currently, only one company is doing that - Google. $GOOG

Google https://t.co/vQkUBwGfFf


Summary: Long AMZN: discounted vs peers, AWS acceleration, e-commerce margin expansion via robotics, 3P shift, and $60B+ ad business growing 20%+ YoY.

$AMZN is now trading at a significant discount compared to other AI hyper-scalers.

My thesis for Amazon:

1. AWS is adding massive capacity over the next 2 years. The recent quarter's result, where AWS growth accelerated to ~20% YoY from 17.5% YoY (in the last quarter), is a sign of things to come.

2. Investors are underestimating the margin expansion that's going to come from robotics in their e-commerce division.

3. Amazon is now focusing more on its 3P business over 1P. This is a more profitable and less capital-intensive segment.

4. Amazon’s advertising business is the third largest in the world and is a >$60B business growing at >20% YoY.

Amazon’s unique ability to generate massive, consistent cash flow across multiple dominant segments gives it significant staying power and a clear advantage over cash-burning upstarts.


There's only one company that will win the AI arms race, and it's Google.

Summary: Long GOOG as the sole AI arms-race winner: proprietary TPUs, unmatched data, top balance sheet, and full-stack hardware/model/distribution advantage.

Google just dropped Gemini 3, and it’s beating every other model in the reasoning benchmark.

Here’s the crazy part: $GOOG used its own processors (TPUs) to train the model.

There’s only one company that will win the AI arms race, and it’s Google.

They have a massive user base across apps, more data than anyone else, and one of the strongest balance sheets in the world.

It’s also the only company with everything one needs to dominate AI - Hardware, models, and distribution.

---

Benchmark stats:

https://x.com/DeryaTR_/status/1990764528309797303


Summary: GOOG will be the world's most valuable company by end of 2026; strongly bullish.

Calling it now.

$GOOG will be the most valuable company in the world by the end of 2026.


Summary: Bullish ADBE: P/E at 2012 lows, AI integration ahead of upstarts, financials solid, share buybacks, enterprise moat via copyright guarantee.

On $ADBE

The company has now lost half its value amid growing concerns about the impact of Gen-AI tools. The last time Adobe traded at its current P/E level was in 2012,  before it moved to a subscription model!

We now have one of the best opportunities to invest in the company with the management aggressively repurchasing shares.

While hobbyists may shift away from Adobe, the majority of Adobe’s revenue comes from professionals. Most professionals will not mess with their workflow just to gain some additional features (Look at how Excel is still thriving).

Adobe has been doing this for 4 decades, and it’s more likely that Adobe will successfully integrate AI into its products than that an AI upstart will replace it.

Adobe has already embedded most models (Gemini, Runway, etc.) into its ecosystem and, more importantly, has given an uncapped legal guarantee against copyright to enterprise clients.

For all the talk about “disruption”, the financials show no sign of slowing: Revenue was up 11% YoY, and net income was up 10.6%.

AI-first ARR (Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant, GenStudio for Performance Marketing) already beat the >$250M FY25 target.

The negative sentiment stems mainly from hobbyists who may feel Adobe’s Creative Cloud is expensive.

But for a design professional making $100K+, paying $70 per month to Adobe is a no-brainer.

---

On the risk of seat compression:

https://t.co/wuEZmq2MCb


Summary: Bullish ADBE: seat compression risk offset by massive pricing power headroom vs. cost of a designer.

Simple.

$ADBE subscription costs $70 per month, whereas a designer costs $10K per month.

If their product is so good that one person can do 3x the work, they can easily charge 10x the current pricing.

$ADBE bulls - what’s your take on seat compression risk?


the key risk everyone is missing is seat-count deflation due to AI… no way these companies can bump up their prices proportionally

Summary: Bearish on MORN, FDS, LSEG: AI-driven seat-count deflation will erode per-seat subscription volumes faster than price increases can offset.

There is a lot of discussion around why high-quality financial stocks like Morningstar, FactSet, LSEG, etc., are in a drawdown.

While macroeconomic issues are definitely there (high interest rate dampening deal flow), the key risk everyone is missing is seat-count deflation due to AI.

Investors used to assign a premium valuation to these companies, driven by the historically sticky nature of their ~$20,000-per-seat subscriptions for financial institutions.

But now the issue is that if one analyst can do the job of 3 to 5 analysts using AI, there is no way these companies can bump up their prices proportionally.

Both Citigroup and Morgan Stanley have now cut thousands of jobs, highlighting AI optimization & reduced need for grunt work.

Goldman Sachs hasn't done a layoff but has slowed replacement hiring, effectively shrinking the size of the new batch.

It will be interesting to see how this will play out.

$MORN $FDS $LSEG


Two long-term catalysts can re-rate the company. 1. Take rate expansion... 2. Airbnb Experiences

Summary: Long ABNB on two re-rating catalysts: take rate expansion and Experiences becoming a standalone market, backed by improving fundamentals.

While $ABNB is still down 16% from its listing price five years ago, underlying fundamentals are improving.

- Revenue has nearly doubled from $6bn in 2021 to an estimated $12bn in 2025.

- EBITDA margins have risen to an industry-leading 35%.

- Strong balance sheet with ~$10 bn cash and minimal debt.

- Still founder-led.

Two long-term catalysts can re-rate the company.

1. Take rate expansion: “Take rate” is how much money Airbnb makes for every booking on its platform. The number has been slowly creeping up (from 12.8% in 2021 to 13.8% in 2025). I expect this % to go up as Airbnb grows and matures. The incremental benefit a new host brings to the marketplace is less valuable once the platform is big enough.

2. Airbnb Experiences: Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky, during their latest earnings call, said that "In Q3, almost half of the people who booked an experience did not have an Airbnb stay. So we’re giving people another reason to use Airbnb."

This is incredible, as it looks like Airbnb Experiences is becoming a whole new market rather than just something you cross-sell to customers who are already booking an Airbnb room.


Summary: Long AMZN: custom Trainium chips + Anthropic partnership to drive AWS growth above market expectations, repricing in 2026.

Just as $GOOG repriced in 2025, $AMZN will be next in 2026.

Amazon's largest AI data center is already operational in Indiana, with half a million AWS Trainium2 chips entirely devoted to Anthropic.

By 2027, it's expected to ramp up to 2.2 gigawatts, exclusively for AI workloads.

The Trainium chips are custom-designed by Amazon to reduce data center costs (by avoiding paying the Nvidia premium).

The chips are now so good that they compete effectively with Nvidia GPUs and Google's TPUs.

The recent quarter's result, where AWS growth accelerated to ~20% YoY from 17.5% YoY (in the last quarter), is a sign of things to come.

This silicon strategy, coupled with the long-term Anthropic partnership, is why I expect AWS's growth rate to exceed market expectations in the coming quarters.


Amazon is the most misunderstood company going into 2026. The company's underlying valuation has declined consistently over the past 5 years and is now trading at a significant discount relative to other AI hyper-scalers.

Summary: Long AMZN into 2026: trades at discount to AI hyper-scalers despite accelerating AWS growth, 23%-growing ad business, and high-margin 3P shift providing AI-slowdown hedge.

Amazon is the most misunderstood company going into 2026.

The company’s underlying valuation has declined consistently over the past 5 years and is now trading at a significant discount relative to other AI hyper-scalers.

But under the hood, Amazon’s all high-margin businesses are growing rapidly.

Amazon Advertising: Is now a $60B business growing at 23% YoY (faster than Meta & Google)

Amazon Third Party: Latest earnings reports indicate that Amazon is now focusing on third-party (3P) e-commerce, which yields higher margins.

Amazon Web Services: The elephant in the room — AWS is critical to Amazon, and they have showcased impressive progress on their custom silicon program (Trainium 3), and we expect rapid adoption given its cost advantage.

The recent quarter's results, in which AWS growth accelerated to ~20% YoY from 17.5% last year, are a sign of things to come.

Finally, given the diversity of its revenue streams, Amazon stands to lose the least in the event of an AI slowdown.

A classic Heads I Win, Tails I Don’t Lose (Much)!


Summary: Long GOOG: Gemini gaining AI market share (21% from 6% YoY), with advantages in foundation models, proprietary GPU infrastructure, and unmatched distribution vs OpenAI.

On $GOOG

Every day, we get more insight into why OpenAI has declared a “Code Red” against Google.

Gemini has consistently gained market share relative to ChatGPT over the last 3 months. Gemini’s market share is now 21%, up from 13% 3 months ago and just 6% a year back.

Unless OpenAI pulls a rabbit out of the hat with its next update, Google will continue to gain market share (just like how it did with browsers 20 years ago!).

1. Foundation Models: The latest Gemini 3 models are either better or as good as OpenAI’s models.

2. Infrastructure: Google has its own GPUs, which give it a cost advantage. This allows Google to offer services at a lower cost and, in some cases, free versions with more features.

3. Distribution: Google has multiple touch points with customers - something that OpenAI cannot replicate in a hurry.


Summary: Long AMZN: Anthropic enterprise gains via Project Rainier expected to accelerate AWS revenue growth in 2026+, driving a rerating.

$AMZN should get rerated in the next few quarters.

Anthropic is often less mentioned in the news, but is rapidly gaining market share in the enterprise with popular products like Claude Opus 4.5.

The company has a strong partnership with Amazon (Project Rainier), which is expected to help AWS accelerate revenue growth in 2026 and beyond.

If Anthropic dominates the enterprise use cases, then Amazon will be a major beneficiary.


Summary: Bullish TIC Solutions on AI/energy infrastructure supercycle, >80% recurring revenue, and synergistic merger creating dominant inspection platform.

Here’s a potential opportunity from the AI ‘picks and shovels’.

TIC Solutions was formed by a leveraged merger between Acuren and NV5, creating a dominant inspection platform for the AI and energy infrastructure supercycle. Here's why we are bullish on the business.

• Led by a legendary value creator with a proven track  record in executing leveraged mergers.

• >80% recurring revenue. These inspections aren’t optional.

• The merger is highly complementary in terms of the service offering. Acuren's infrastructure inspection business gets the high-tech, data-driven capabilities of NV5 (digital twins, geospatial analysis, etc.). This should enable the merged entity to grow faster than the sum of its parts.

As Al-driven power demand surges and North America invests to maintain aging infrastructure, we estimate that $TIC will be a major beneficiary in the years to come.


We will be buyers of this fear (at the right price). Axon's core revenue is anchored in Tasers and body-worn sensors. These can't be vibe-coded. rare opportunity to buy a high-growth compounder (>20% revenue growth in 2026) at a discount

Summary: Long AXON: physical moats insulate it from AI software disruption; >20% rev growth compounder being dumped in software selloff creates buying opportunity.

The market is in a ‘sell first, ask questions later’ mode with software stocks. Software valuations are derating as investors worry about terminal value in an AI world. But in the panic, the market is dumping companies with physical moats simply because they have a software component.

Enter Axon!

While pure-play software may be disrupted, Axon’s core revenue is anchored in Tasers and body-worn sensors. These can’t be vibe-coded. No police department will replace Axon’s devices because another firm has better software. In fact, AI will help Axon deliver more value.

As Axon becomes cheaper, we may have a rare opportunity to buy a high-growth compounder (>20% revenue growth in 2026) at a discount. Axon isn’t a software company; it’s the system of record for better public safety. We will be buyers of this fear (at the right price).


$AMD down 17% post-earnings may be an over-reaction... trading at a 10x PE based on 3-5-year out earnings

Summary: Bullish AMD post-earnings selloff; hyperscaler capex ramp + 60% DC revenue CAGR guided puts stock at 10x PE on 3-5yr earnings — compelling long.

$AMD down 17% post-earnings may be an over-reaction.

All Hyperscalers (Meta, Google, and Microsoft) have announced a significant ramp-up in their capex. To benefit from this massive spend, AMD does not need to beat Nvidia; it just needs to be a strong second source, and it will increase its GPU revenues multifold.

CEO Lisa Su, who is generally conservative, has guided for 60% revenue growth over the next five years in the Data Center division. She already has an anchor customer in OpenAI and discussed collaborating with other large customers during the latest earnings call.

If you model the guidance, the company is trading at a 10x PE based on 3-5-year out earnings. The only question is whether you believe the management’s guidance!


Summary: AMD selling off because GPU revenue expectations were set too high, not due to Intel competition fears.

@JonathanAMcB With the DC Server market growing strongly, I don't think that the market is reacting to potentially higher competition from Intel and selling off AMD. The GPU revenue expectations were too high.