Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks on compelling valuations and de-escalatory tariff signals improving risk/reward.

Canadian energy stocks have been hammered on tariff uncertainty. These demands by the new Commerce Secretary (nominee) seem both reasonable and de-escalatory. Many CDN stocks are trading at compelling/adequate pre/post tariff valuations...risk vs. reward. https://t.co/Pla1L7ah7y


Summary: Structural long natural gas; short-term cautious on oil despite medium-term bullish thesis intact.

We believe natural gas is in a structural bull market while the short-term outlook for oil is challenged (medium- term bullish thesis intact). Hear why in our Ninepoint Energy Strategies Weekly Update: https://t.co/yWQfOLnNmd


Summary: Long energy stocks at current oil prices with massive free-cash-flow upside; optionality to higher oil in months ahead.

Why do we see MEANINGFUL upside for energy stocks at ~CURRENT oil price, thus getting enormous free optionality to a stronger price in the months ahead? Company XYZ, a 10% weighting in the Ninepoint Energy Fund, will free cashflow 110% of their current share price over the next 5 years at $75WTI ($3 below current). At $90WTI we model them free cash flowing 275% of their share price over the same time frame.


we cannot intelligently explain the MTD selloff in energy stocks given $80WTI, massive free cashflows, and ongoing significant share buybacks, and are actively adding to key names

Summary: Actively adding to energy stocks; selloff unjustified given $80 WTI, strong FCF, and buybacks.

It's a great day when you get to share the screen with the one and only @CroftHelima. We cannot intelligently explain the MTD selloff in energy stocks given $80WTI, massive free cashflows, and ongoing significant share buybacks, and are actively adding to key names.   https://t.co/SjCoQsonue


this has become an alpha generating opportunity, with clarity in the coming weeks. Canadian energy names have lagged their US peers by ~8% since Premier Smith's comments spooked the market. fundamentally valuations in several names are already discounting a full tariff

Summary: Long Canadian energy names: tariff risk overpriced, 17-19% FCF yields at $75 WTI already discount worst case, lagged US peers ~8% on sentiment.

We believe that it is unlikely (<25% chance) that President Trump will place tariffs on Canadian oil. How can he do so (60% of US imports) while also committing to "maximum pressure" on Iran (1.7MM Bbl/d) and enforcing new sanctions on Russia (0.75-1.5MM Bbl/d) and Venezuela (~0.1MM Bbl/d and an alternative to CDN heavy oil). Further, PADD 2 imports ~3MM Bbl/d from Canada via pipeline with limited/no alternatives. Tariffs also assumed direct pass through to US consumer = inflationary when US 10 year treasuries at 4.6%.

I met with the CEOs of most CDN oil companies earlier this week and no strong views other than would be temporary and "this too shall pass."

Canadian energy names have lagged their US peers by ~8% since Premier Smith's comments spooked the market. With WTI spot at $78 and 2025 strip at $73 some names are trading at 17%-19% free cashflow yields at $75. A full tariff (and likely VERY temporary) would lower this to still over 10%. While knee jerk reactions are always possible/likely, given the lag in CDN names to the recent rise in WTI fundamentally valuations in several names are already discounting a full tariff.

We are seeing tariff angst amongst clients and trading desks report heavy US HF selling/shorting. Uncertainty creates opportunity and while no one can be truly certain on the outcome, to us this has become an alpha generating opportunity, with clarity in the coming weeks.


Summary: Long US natural gas producers on 20+ yr inventory, LNG/data-center demand tailwinds, and 11%+ FCF yields amid energy sector apathy.

First Trust Natural Gas ETF tracks US nat gas producers

Hated and left for dead: energy now makes up just 2.7% of the S&P500.  This apathy creates opportunity = we like US focused natural gas producers: 20+ years of inventory, closest to sources of demand growth (LNG, data centers), and 11%+ FCF yields at strip/marginal supply cost: https://t.co/O7oJlIbjbT


Summary: Bullish crude oil into 2026+: US inventory deficit widening, OPEC+ spare capacity overstated, non-OPEC growth ending, supply/demand balance increasingly tight.

Brent crude futures as global oil commodity proxy

US oil inventories reached their widest deficit to average levels since June 2022 while the US "Big 3" deficit continued to widen. We are told by some that inventories no longer matter because OPEC+ has ample spare capacity. We disagree! We believe actual OPEC+ spare capacity = ~4MM Bbl/d and is largely held by KSA. With meaningful US shale / non-OPEC production growth forecasted to be coming to an end in the near future, the market will soon look to 2026+ balances which are increasingly bullish.  At that point, global oil inventories at all-time lows combined with demand at record highs will become much more relevant.


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector: record oil demand, low inventories, tight OPEC spare capacity, ~12% FCF yield, and fading political risk discount.

Today redefined what "Happy New Year" means...record high oil demand, record low global inventories, tightly held OPEC spare capacity, a sector trading at a ~12% FCF yield at spot, and now the real potential for the elimination of the CDN political risk discount in CDN stocks. https://t.co/Y8QSzdgCrN


Summary: Bullish on energy stocks for a multi-year bull market despite recent weakness.

Suddenly in need of some hand holding with energy stocks 🔽 even though oil has remained strong? Need a reminder as to why we are in a "multi-year bull market" for energy stocks and why "we remain bullish™"? Join me next Thursday at 2pm ET for a webcast: https://t.co/cQh52O9trq https://t.co/lTm6QuFbBX


Summary: Long natural gas; author believes a multi-year bull market is underway.

Today on @marketcall I reviewed how we are positioned for the 2 key unknowns in the oil market, and for what we believe to be a multi-year bull market in natural gas: https://t.co/9EEQS8S9zd https://t.co/KmMPdjLwSM


Summary: Bullish oil on inventory drawdowns to record lows by year-end; bullish natural gas and oilfield service stocks into 2025.

We remain bullish on the 2H'24 and 2025 as oil inventories will soon sharply draw heading to record lows by year-end while natural gas and service stocks offer upside to a much better natural gas price in 2025:  https://t.co/KnBxB5LZyp https://t.co/LYotnYxqNc


service stocks offer upside to a much better natural gas price in 2025


Summary: Bullish near-term oil on Strait closure, US SPR depletion, and supply recovery delays; oil equities mispriced with $75-80 WTI floor in 2027+.

Takeaways from spending a day with some of the smartest energy people on the planet:
🛢 The risk of a US product export ban is real if the national average gasoline price hits ~$5/gallon
🛢the most important questions to come up at dinner were "how does this end?" and "why would Iran give up the Strait at this point?"
🛢base expectation broadly is the Strait will NOT reopen soon as neither party is feeling enough pressure and both sides believe they are winning - military reopening not politically palatable and lacks European buy-in (you broke it, you fix it)
🛢I believe the Kuwaitis, Saudis, and Emiratis will NOT ship through the Strait under an Iranian toll system. Incremental workarounds underway with more to come but will take years...Strait oil exports will never reach past levels
🛢many expect US tank bottoms in July and US SPR to approach minimum operating levels in July/August (!) - the US has front-loaded emergency responses not having expected the closure to last as long as it has and now has limited recourse after July - Presidential jawboning has made the imbalance worse as demand has not yet been impacted. Regional product shortages are being masked (bring your own jet fuel)
🛢skepticism around available data - China believed to be drawing from SPR even though satellite data does not show and Strait voyages OUT believed to be potentially higher than reported
🛢how long will it take for production to recover? Weeks/month for majority (~80%) for KSA, UAE, Kuwait, the last 20% is the hardest, and big question mark for Iraq (~2.9MM Bbl/d shut-in) given geology and bureaucracy
🛢biggest reason why the expected shortage has been delayed? Chinese drop in imports of ~4.0MM Bbl/d leveraging their SPR. Much skepticism around reported demand "destruction" of 5MM Bbl/d
🛢Net/net: bullish near-term oil price with significant frustration on price action. "New normal" ahead with energy security priority 1, 2, and 3 = increased influence of Western Hemisphere (ie. Canada if we seize it). Many oil stocks discounting <$65WTI with an expected floor price of $75-$80 in 2027+


we see investor attention returning to Canada, especially with the elimination of our 'political risk discount' likely in the months ahead

Summary: Long Canadian oilsands over US shale: buyback compounding + fading political risk discount vs shale inventory depletion.

Einstein said the most powerful force in the universe is compound interest. For energy stocks, the cumulative compounding impact of meaningful share buybacks we believe will lead to an inevitable forced re-rating of valuation, given how valuable the remaining shares become over time. Here is one example, a Canadian midcap oilsand stock, able to retire 62% of their shares over 5 years at a flat $70WTI price deck, thereby inflating their FCF yield to over 30%, at which point they would still have 29 years of stay-flat inventory. US shale companies, given lack of inventory depth, do not have this ability, and as the "twilight of shale" becomes more obvious, we see investor attention returning to Canada, especially with the elimination of our "political risk discount" likely in the months ahead.


Summary: Bullish energy stocks at 15% FCF yield on $80 WTI; tight inventories + OPEC discipline imply >$90 Brent in 2025.

Energy investors are under assault by headlines fueled by either wonky data or those with eco-evangelical, policy advocacy driven agendas. It is hard, but necessary, to tune out the noise and focus on what matters:
1) Demand is "fine" - consensus still remains ~1.4MM Bbl/d, and even with lower #'s global inventories will still draw more than normal.
2) US Shale - the rig count is too low for meaningful growth, with ~0.4MM Bbl/d of growth this year and potential declines in '25 unless it goes up.
3) OPEC+ - discretionary cuts will not come onto the market if conditions don't warrant (pull vs. push), and compensatory cuts will be watched by those who matter, negating much of the potential adds.
4) US inventories - seasonal draws should begin any week, and YTD all major product inventories have been tightening vs. average levels.
5) Global inventories - YTD flat vs. 78MM Bbls build last year. The deficit to '17-'19 baseline has widened YTD from 31MM Bbls to 85MM Bbls. 2H'24 draws should lead to a record low.
6) OPEC Cohesion - remains strong and "will and intent" is working.
7) 2025: even with the full return of OPEC+ barrels, "days of supply" will remain at record low levels (41 vs. 2017-2023 avg. of 47) which implies >$90 Brent (we use $80WTI in our stock selection and modelling).

Sentiment is challenged, fundamentals are not. We believe the sector now trades at a 15% FCF yield at $80WTI and "we remain bullish"™ on energy stocks.


2025: even with the full return of OPEC+ barrels, 'days of supply' will remain at record low levels (41 vs. 2017-2023 avg. of 47) which implies >$90 Brent

Brent crude futures Yahoo Finance symbol


Summary: Bullish oil and oil equities: supply disruption lasting months/years, higher floor price, political risk premium, SPR restocking demand all support higher levels.

A few thoughts with oil down 11% on the SoH being "opened" (until April 22nd):
🛢voyage time for tankers out is ~25 days to Asia and 25 days back = ~ 2 months of continued production loss = ~600MM Bbls = still heading to lowest inventory levels in history
🛢IEA yesterday saying will take ~ 2 years to fully normalize production
🛢80 facilities have been damaged, 1/3 "severely or very severely" which will take quarters/years to fix
🛢political risk premium of $10+/bbl likely and the floor price for oil is now higher given inventory reset
🛢SPR restocking will = ~0.3MM Bbl/d of new demand for the next 4 years
🛢oil equities were on average discounting $70WTI. Won't matter at the open but will again soon.


the bullish gas thesis... 13%-16% FCF yields in US gas stocks

Summary: Bullish US nat-gas equities: normal Feb weather + 3Bcf/d LNG demand + supply discipline = 13-16% FCF yields.

Winter is not over yet, and neither is the bullish gas thesis. Normal weather forecasted for February (🤞) + 3Bcf/d of incremental LNG demand + proven US discipline... $4USD marginal cost of supply = 13%-16% FCF yields in US gas stocks. https://t.co/fbHRPiXt2j


Summary: Energy stocks remain profoundly mispriced, hated, and underowned; the trade is still in early innings — bullish on the sector.

Three years ago today. As far as we have come since then, we believe energy stocks remain profoundly mispriced, that the sector remains hated and underowned, and that the energy trade is still very much in its early days. https://t.co/CF8Lj6hP2b


We remain bullish on energy stocks, especially after this recent algo/CTA induced selloff

Summary: Remain bullish on energy stocks post algo/CTA selloff; 11-18% FCF yields, 75-100% capital return via buybacks will force multiple re-rating.

"We remain bullish" on energy stocks, especially after this recent algo/CTA induced selloff. Why? We can buy companies with 30+ years of stay-flat inventory and low-to-no debt, trading at 11%-18% free cashflow yields actively returning 75%-100% of their free cashflow back to investors, mainly via buybacks, and we believe the compounding effect of such meaningful buybacks will force a re-rating in trading multiples. What other sector can compete with that???


Summary: WTI floor seen at $80 with further upside; North American oil producers underpriced vs new commodity floor.

We believe that the average North American oil producer is discounting ~$70WTI, while the new floor price for WTI is $80 with meaningful further upside in the years ahead: https://t.co/GGpXQZjCRO


Summary: Bullish on US oil midcaps at $70 WTI: 15% FCF yields + buybacks seen as eventual sentiment catalyst.

Sentiment stinks, investors are exhausted, momentum is so bad it is literally "off the chart", and it feels like every other sector is lapping us. Yet, at $70WTI we estimate several midcaps to be trading at 15% free cashflow yields. Buybacks = eventual apathy curative??? https://t.co/I9g2zXFN4W


Summary: Bullish natural gas: $4/mcf floor sound on higher heating demand, DUC drawdown, Haynesville cycle times, and ~3Bcf/d incremental LNG demand.

Given the recent change in weather forecasts, Winter heating demand is now expected to be higher than average (we always just pray for normal). Given the DUC drawdown in 2025, production having been brought forward last Nov/Dec to take advantage of pricing, 6-9 month cycle time in the Haynesville, and ~3Bcf/d of incremental LNG demand, our $4/mcf fundamental floor appears sound given forecasts that we could enter next Winter at the bottom of the 5 year average. A $0.50/mcf ⬆ in natural gas = ~33% ⬆ in FCF yields from already attractive 11%-14% levels.


Summary: Oil and energy stocks are underpriced vs fundamentals; bullish both despite negative market sentiment.

The fear in the market is palpable...here I discuss what is driving negative sentiment and why we do not think the price of either oil or energy stocks currently reflect fundamentals: https://t.co/DEuqsqryhQ https://t.co/vUoUoiFP9y


Summary: Long Canadian E&P sector: strong balance sheets, buybacks, dividends sustainable to $45-55 WTI; market too bearish, sector attractively valued at current oil price.

Biggest takeaway from 3 intense days of 1-on-1 meetings with Canadian E&Ps? The stark contrast between the panic felt by the  market and the calmness expressed by CEO's. Balance sheets have never been stronger with avg. forward debt:cashflow of 0.8X at current pricing. Dividends (4%-8% yields) + maintenance capital for most sustainable down to $45-$55WTI with rigs getting dropped at $65WTI or lower.  Share buyback programs getting stepped up too which is a visible "show of faith" in their business models. We believe the market remains far too bearish on oil and that even at the current oil price the sector is attractively valued.


Summary: Bullish natural gas as the primary fuel for surging power demand; affordable, available, and reliable.

You can't be bullish the first without being bullish the second...natural gas is the fuel of choice to satisfy the significant increase in power demand scaling in real-time: affordable, available, and reliable. https://t.co/uM0uvgASEn


Summary: Bullish on Canadian heavy oil producers; endorses view that WCS will become the most coveted barrel globally.

Canadian heavy oil producers: CNQ, CVE, ATH, BTE

Great conversation with respected “barrel counter” @michael___tran: “WCS (Western Canadian Select) will become THE most coveted barrel in the world.” We remain bullish…especially on Canadian heavy oil producers! https://t.co/z7bAHgDgcr


Summary: Bullish oil equities on record demand, low inventories, strong FCF yields, solid balance sheets, and TMX catalyst.

Live shot of oil stocks despite $76WTI (+7% YTD), lowest global oil inventory levels since at least 2017 drawing counter-seasonally, record high demand, “will and intent”, 10%-15%+ FCF yields at spot, superbly strong balance sheets, TMX in a few months, rapidly decelerating shale, …


oil stocks remain a contrarian call... we continue to find compelling value where others are not yet looking

Summary: Bullish oil equities and crude: demand beats, US supply falling, inventories near all-time seasonal lows, OPEC spare capacity disciplined; sentiment still bearish = contrarian buy.

It is baffling to me that oil stocks remain a contrarian call and sentiment, as measured by fund flows, remains bearish. Oil demand is exceeding expectations, US supply growth is plummeting, global oil inventories are near all-time seasonal lows and "days of supply" to reach all-time lows this Summer, OPEC spare capacity is largely held by Saudi whose "will and intent" is working, and the "energy transition" false narrative is crumbling before our eyes. While the "generals" are discounting near spot WTI, we continue to find compelling value where others are not yet looking.


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy equities and oil: oversold technicals, 12%+ FCF yields, peaking non-OPEC supply, OPEC spare capacity absorption by ~2028, and sustained demand growth all support a long.

Panic is palatable, with technical indicators reaching the most oversold levels since COVID and 25 energy stocks making 52 week lows yesterday on almost 2x normal volume. Energy stocks, especially in Canada, are clearly for sale and valuations/dividends have now approached levels that have typically offered support (12%+ FCF yields and 5%-9% sustainable dividend yields). Why is sentiment so terrible? Enormous volatility and enormous uncertainty:
1) CND energy tariffs - we think will be short-term, and if not impacts cashflow by only 7% max over a full year
2) "Drill, baby drill" / "Trump wants $50 oil" - shale grew at its slowest pace (ex-COVID) since its inception in '24 and has entered its twilight = the world has lost its most meaningful source of short-cycle supply. The WH cannot outweigh geology and capital discipline.
3) OPEC spare capacity - we estimate ~4MM Bbl/d in a 105MM Bbl/d market and has provided clarity for its gradual and adaptable return. The ~130k bbl/d per month cadence is hugely dependent on market conditions. We do not believe OPEC+ has any incentive to tank the oil price.
Where do things stand today?
1) Global oil inventories, the barometer for market tightness, remain at multi-year seasonal lows
2) US shale company guidance corroborates no meaningful black oil supply growth (~0.2MM Bbl/d)
3) Demand is forecasted to grow by ~1.3MM Bbl/d
4) Global tariff uncertainty -  likely to remain, unfortunately
5) Iran/VZ/Russia  oil sanctions - Iran is estimated to be exporting at/near max levels and Russia is bound by the OPEC+ voluntary agreement.
6) OPEC+ has begun the process of reducing spare capacity which now is the largest overhang on sentiment
We continue to see non-OPEC supply peaking + the absorption of most of OPEC spare capacity by ~ 2028, yet many years of demand growth ahead. This is not a sunset industry, yet uncertainty and volatility are allowing energy stocks to trade as such.


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: record free cash flow and shareholder payouts signal sustained strength.

Energy investors are winning...energy stocks are only narrowly lagging tech stocks year-to-date while more than tripling the broader Canadian market. Business models have never been stronger with record free cashflow and payouts to shareholders: https://t.co/MX8ZPLuk4t https://t.co/0OCqPl7MUu


Summary: Bullish natural gas long-term on 20+ Bcf/d LNG demand growth + 4-10 Bcf/d data-centre demand by 2030.

With 20+ Bcf/d of LNG demand growth over the next 5 years and now data centre demand being actualized (project = 300MMcf/d or ~4% of Alberta's current demand; North America = 4Bcf/d-10Bcf/d growth to 2030), natural gas has gone from a BRIDGE FUEL to THE FUEL of the future. https://t.co/wyrXebgROM


Summary: Long energy stocks: market underestimates FCF generation at $80 WTI; 20% FCF yields with 75-100% return commitments signal deep undervaluation.

There is a profound misunderstanding of how much free cashflow is being generated at today's oil price, let alone where I believe we will be later this year. Many energy stocks trading at 20% FCF yields at $80WTI while committing to return 75%-100% of it back this year.


Summary: Medium/long-term bullish on natural gas on long-dated inventory value.

Another @marketcall in the books with the focus on the value in long-dated inventory, why we have become medium/long-term bullish on natural gas, and where we continue to find opportunities...we remain bullish!
https://t.co/Ur1nQQeNWD https://t.co/xE6gMuC5wX


We remain bullish! We believe the pace of draws will meaningfully accelerate in the coming months and that global oil inventories will end the year at 10+ year lows.

Summary: Bullish oil: inventory draws to accelerate, global stocks ending year at 10+ year lows.

US "Big 3" inventories are now back to a multi-year deficit. We believe the pace of draws will meaningfully accelerate in the coming months and that global oil inventories will end the year at 10+ year lows. We remain bullish! https://t.co/z18sy1kz9U


we remain bullish on natural gas as it is gone from a bridge fuel to THE fuel of the future

Summary: Remain bullish on US natural gas; short-term selloff overblown with LNG demand tripling by 2030, flat supply, and FCF yields accelerating at $4-5/mcf.

Despite the 18% MTD selloff, "we remain bullish" on natural gas as it is gone from a bridge fuel to THE fuel of the future:
➡Short-term selloff driven by mild Spring, very heavy LNG maintenance, and weak power burns
➡LNG demand to grow by ~3Bcf/d in 2026 and reach ~29Bcf/d (vs. 15.5bcf/d now) by 2030
➡Power demand growth is real (GE Vernova backlog = 8Bcf/d of future demand)
➡Total demand growth 2025-2030 = 16+Bcf/d
➡Total US natural gas production flat since March (S&P Global) with limited/no growth in 2H'25
➡Haynesville growth YTD driven by DUC drawdown (now normalized) with current rig count now at/near maintenance mode. This is THE main growth basin with marginal supply cost of $4+/mcf.
➡Average well productivity (length adjusted) falling 3%-5%/year
➡Flat/falling US oil shale production = less associated gas production (helping to offset rising GOR's)
➡At $4/mcf we estimate 10% FCF yields and 16%+ FCF yields at $5/mcf...LNG Canada ramp = tightening differential to ~$1.10
➡Similar to CDN oilsand stocks 2 years ago, US gas producers deleveraging with near-term meaningful inflection in share buybacks = catalyst.


Summary: Bullish on natural gas stocks, finds them compelling.

4 potential final outcomes in the MEG/CVE/SCR soap opera + some thoughts on why natural gas stocks are so compelling: https://t.co/5wXxCdsCJq https://t.co/g0mPt1x9Oh


Summary: Structural bull case for oil to all-time highs later this year; Canadian oil stocks severely mispriced to the upside on geopolitical premium + fundamental rerating.

We continue to face the worst energy crisis in history. Global production has fallen by ~7mm bbl/d while flows have fallen by ~15mm bbl/d. Even when the Strait eventually opens, the impacts will be enduring. Lifting of Russian sanctions have killed the “glut” narrative as sanctioned floating barrels will be quickly absorbed resetting balances. We expect at least a $10/bbl political risk premium to remain in place for some time raising the floor price to ~$70. When the market’s focus eventually shifts from geopolitics to fundamentals, the structural bull market that we have long championed will we believe become the new oil narrative later in the year, ultimately leading to all-time highs. Given all this, we view Canadian oil stocks to be in many cases severely mispriced.


we remain bullish on Canadian energy stocks

Summary: Remains bullish on Canadian energy stocks.

Why “we remain bullish”™ on Canadian energy stocks: https://t.co/ezelAJarC1 https://t.co/wgsxeGX9Pv


Summary: Bearish oil consensus fading; bears going into hibernation + rate cuts historically bullish oil; nat gas setup very bullish for 2026 on normal/cold winter.

Takeaways from listening to some of the largest energy traders in the world at the @EnergyAspects conference in London:
🛢everyone's balances short-term are negative yet the track record of consensus trades working out is very poor - ie. EVERYONE is bearish
🛢everyone wants oil to go lower and then will buy, so will it? If oil cannot sell off now given poor anticipated supply/demand fundamentals, then when will it?
🛢short-term view is negative, yet big focus on dwindling OPEC spare capacity, flat '26 exit/'25 exit production growth, and stronger than expected demand
🛢China has the same balances as everyone else, yet they continue to buy (strong renminbi helping). Little insight given they are a very good poker player.
🛢builds have not been as large as expected (the "glutters" have been wrong) and not happening in visible pricing centers. OECD inventories remain well below 5 year average and that is a key metric that OPEC is watching.
🛢interest rate cuts have historically been very bullish oil
🛢natural gas: if we get a normal Winter the setup for 2026 is very bullish; if a cold Winter then we may have to price out LNG exports to balance the market.
In summary, I wouldn't say there are many outright 🐂's quite yet, but the 🐻's seem to be going into hibernation.


Summary: Remains bullish on natural gas; also notes anticipated oil supply glut (bearish oil context implied but not a clean directional call).

Why "we remain bullish" on natural gas and a quick update on "the most anticipated oil supply glut in history"™: https://t.co/C5QK50nMVz


Summary: Long energy sector on strongest-ever balance sheets, record FCF soon returned to shareholders, and an imminent catalyst.

A chart worth 1,000 words: still hated and under owned, despite their strongest balance sheets in history and record free cashflow soon to be meaningfully returned to shareholders, the energy sector represents IMO compelling deep value with a catalyst on the near horizon. https://t.co/CuEuBDPEjO


Summary: Bullish oil: financial positioning near historic short extreme while physical demand revised up, inventories at all-time lows, and CTA/HF positioning at multi-year lows — contrarian long setup.

Implosion in the financial demand for oil with net length once again nearing lowest levels in history...all the while physical oil demand growth is being revised UP, global oil inventories are at all time-lows, Energy Aspects says CTAs approaching max short, and hedge fund positioning in energy stocks at ~20 year lows. What a setup!


Summary: Bullish natural gas: peak US supply, need $4-5 strip to grow, +13Bcf/d LNG + 2-4Bcf/d data center demand by 2030, declining shale productivity.

Met with the 2 largest US natural gas producers at the RBC Energy Conference in NY today whom account for ~ 12% of US supply. Both said they are at peak production for the year (declining into YE) and need a "structural price change" to start growing again ($4-$5 strip for next ~3 years). On demand, 13Bcf/d of LNG demand growth + 2-4Bcf/d from data centers by 2030. One noted a "few % per year decline" in productivity per rig going forward = maturing of US shale / degrading incremental rock quality. Very encouraging meetings! Hard to find chinks in the bullish natural gas thesis other than consensus long amongst energy specialists + always the potential for a Mother Nature curve ball.


sentiment towards the energy sector remains at a record low...I'm hopeful that this pivot by the IEA will lead to a meaningful improvement in sentiment towards energy stocks

Summary: Bullish energy equities: record-low sentiment + supply constraints + IEA narrative shift should drive meaningful re-rating of depressed valuations.

Important development: sentiment towards the energy sector remains at a record low, and in my opinion one of the largest reasons for this has been the relentless doomsday preaching by the IEA proclaiming "the end of oil." This narrative, supported by eco-evangelistic "scenarios" based on hope and political aspirations, completely distorted investors' and politicians' views alike on the long-term outlook for oil.

The result? Lack of interest in energy equities (= depressed valuations) and an accepted belief in "stranded asset risk" which lead to rise in investor activism encouraging oil companies to pivot towards renewables. For those who succumbed to the pressure, the result was the incineration of billions of dollars from poor investments. Too, given the change in investor demands, companies stopped adequately investing in new projects, with the growth rate of non-OPEC supply forecasted to peak this year. We will soon wake up to a world where the largest source of incremental supply of the past decade (US shale) is no more, OPEC will have little if any spare capacity, and yet the fairy tale of imminent peak oil demand will now be replaced with the view that the demand for oil will grow for decades more!

I'm hopeful that this pivot by the IEA will lead to a meaningful improvement in sentiment towards energy stocks, while also allowing politicians, especially in Canada, to see the world through a more realistic energy lens. The era of "energy ignorance" must come to an end...it has cost our country too much already.


Summary: At ~$80 WTI strip for 2026/2027, sees compelling upside in select energy equities.

The 2026/2027 WTI strip is now ~$80, a price level where we see very compelling upside in select energy stocks: https://t.co/5BPIlFqLkr


Summary: Bullish US natural gas and producer equities; strip pricing supports massive buybacks on LNG/AI/winter demand catalyst.

With the marginal cost of meaningful US supply @ $4/mcf and the 2026/2027 strip averaging ~$4, US natural gas producers could buy back 24%-28% of their shares outstanding over 2 years while maintaining 20+ years of stay flat inventory. Winter (+ more LNG/AI demand) is coming soon!


US natural gas producers could buy back 24%-28% of their shares outstanding over 2 years while maintaining 20+ years of stay flat inventory


Summary: Bullish TC Energy on 40bcf/d NA natural gas demand growth over the next decade, contradicting peak-demand forecast.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

TC Energy: 40bcf/d of North American natural gas demand growth over the next ~ decade. Didn't our own Minister of Natural Resources call for peak natural gas demand "by the end of this decade"? Perhaps there is a business case after all!
https://t.co/bDWkrhdtGT https://t.co/TIJqCdbInt


Summary: Bullish Canadian oilsands/heavy oil companies; expects record free cashflow next year driven by WTI above $90.

Canadian oilsands/heavy oil companies: CNQ, CVE, ATH

"Every day above $90WTI is a spectacular day." Hear why + why we see record free cashflow next year for Canadian oilsand/heavy oil companies:
 https://t.co/oJq1ntfoPw https://t.co/iiDcqSzRfr


Summary: Bullish oil despite recession/China demand fears; Canadian oilsands/heavy oil stocks seen as greatest opportunity.

Canadian oilsands/heavy oil stocks: CNQ, CVE, ATH, BTE

Join me today at 12pmET on @BNNBloomberg. I'll be discussing "will" and "intent", why we remain bullish on oil despite recessionary/China demand f.e.a.r.s, and why we see the greatest opportunity on earth in Canadian oilsands/heavy oil stocks.


Summary: Bullish natural gas as the clear winner from AI power demand surge; consensus view from Energy Aspects London conference.

One ChatGPT query to generate an image consumes the same amount of electricity as fully charging an iphone! Clear consensus in London from the
@energyaspects energy conference panel on AI/power...natural gas is going to be the clear winner.


Summary: Global oil inventories at record lows and falling further, bullish crude oil outlook despite bearish headwinds.

According to @Kpler, global oil inventories have erased the builds of the past 2 months and now stand at their lowest levels as far back as their dataset goes (2017).  "Weak" demand, Iranian export surge, SPR release, disappointing China re-opening, etc...despite it all, here we are...and heading lower still.


Summary: Low nat gas prices unsustainable; marginal supply cost = $4/mcf implies prices must rise, with 11–14% FCF yields in US gas names.

Despite uncooperative Winter weather so far, Peters & Co. reminds us why currently low natural gas prices should not last. We believe marginal cost of supply = $4/mcf = 11%-14% FCF yields available in US gas names. https://t.co/9ge5N5izvr


Summary: Canadian energy cos are resilient at $60 WTI with low leverage and 6% yields; implicitly bullish on the sector.

Canadian energy companies can weather the oil price storm with strong balance sheets (<1X D/CF at $60WTI) and business models that require only $51WTI on average to keep production flat while sustaining an average 6% dividend yield. https://t.co/uWeNk5msoB


Summary: Energy stocks likely to recover as mutual fund tax-loss selling ends and oil speculative positioning near historical bottoms.

For most mutual funds in Canada today is the last day to trigger capital losses, so the selling pressure in energy stocks may soon ease. Further, net speculative length in oil is now at levels that at least historically have been near bottoms. https://t.co/d4sXmBHJZa


Natural gas has entered a multi-year bull market due to LNG buildout / new demands for power and is no longer a 'bridge fuel' but rather THE fuel of choice

Summary: Oil >$15 below fair value on risk-off oversell; nat gas in multi-year bull on LNG/power demand; energy equities at >15% FCF yields offer opportunity.

What we believe to be true:
1) the recent selloff in oil has more to do with risk-off than OPEC returning barrels to the market and is >$15 below fair value
2) "drill, baby drill" is toothless and despite what the Energy Secretary said yesterday, oil at $66WTI is in the "death zone" for growth
3) US shale is nearing its peak rate and go-forward growth rates will be below consensus
4) OPEC spare capacity is less than people believe and over the next 18 months will likely only be ~1MM Bbl/d of real barrels being returned to the market
5) Global oil inventories remain low and will remain below average levels
6) Non-OPEC supply will peak in the next few years = significantly more power/market share to OPEC in the years ahead
7) Natural gas has entered a multi-year bull market due to LNG buildout / new demands for power and is no longer a "bridge fuel" but rather THE fuel of choice.
8) At our $70WTI and $4NYMEX base case, we can find stocks trading >15% free cashflow yields with decades of stay-flat inventory, uncertainty = opportunity


No more: … have all prevented foreign investors from buying Canadian energy stocks leading to a political risk discount. No more

Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: political risk discount from hostile energy policy now removed, foreign investors can return.

I've been waiting many years to do this interview. "Phase them out", Bill C69/C59, emissions cap, carbon tax, "no LNG business case" have all prevented foreign investors from buying Canadian energy stocks leading to a political risk discount. No more: https://t.co/4D5SGrKAfG https://t.co/vGa6B29E9c


Summary: Bullish natural gas as the only near-term solution to AI-driven power demand surge.

For the first time in history, global spending by technology companies exceeds that of global oil and gas companies. Is there a risk of an AI overbuild? Sure. Yet, even so the magnitude of the growth in power demand is enormous. The only way to satisfy it near-term? Natural gas. https://t.co/32gp6SnV89


Summary: Hunting for an oil/Brent bottom; 4 of 5 contrarian-long signals already triggered, one (onshore build trajectory) still pending.

Searching for a sign of the bottom:
1) Universal bearishness ✅
2) Most anticipated supply glut in history ✅
3) Brent short interest at most extreme in history✅
4) Market net short oil (!) ✅
5) Onshore build trajectory easing ❌ https://t.co/1z0en3VjmA


Summary: Bullish US energy stocks: sentiment at rock bottom, China demand likely bottomed, yet FCF yield at 3x market with strong balance sheets at $70 WTI.

Sentiment, as measured by tweet comments at least, feels rock bottom.  "Everyone knows" that China demand is in the pits (likely bottomed according to @EnergyAspects). Everyone thinks the US is in, or will be in recession. Whatever risk premium was in the oil price (a negative one now) is gone. And yet, the 2025 WTI strip (admittedly a terrible prognosticator) is at $70. So what do energy stocks look like at $70? Triple the FCF yield of the broader market with fortress-like balance sheets.


Summary: Bullish energy sector: low generalist interest and cheap valuations ($67 WTI discount, 4.5x EV/EBITDA, 13% FCF) signal an opportunity.

RBC on investor sentiment: "energy specialists continue to dominate the energy trade flow with generalists still preferring to overweight tech. Some conversations of generalists indicate an appetite to evaluate energy once an Iran resolution occurs and a more defined oil market is established. Energy stocks on average discounting $67WTI and trading at 4.5X EV/EBITDA / 13% FCF yields at strip." Apathy = opportunity.


Summary: Bullish GEV on massive backlog implying gas demand growth; bullish nat gas on LNG+power demand with $4+ marginal cost floor.

GE Vernova: 55GW in backlog/reservations = ~8Bcf/d in implied future natural gas demand growth. Brutal month (-19%) with disappointing cooling demand + private rig ramp, but the real story is 13Bcf/d of LNG demand growth + 6+Bcf/d in power demand and marginal cost of supply $4+. https://t.co/0N6xS2Czp3


13Bcf/d of LNG demand growth + 6+Bcf/d in power demand and marginal cost of supply $4+


Summary: Very bullish on Canadian oilsands/heavy oil stocks based on analysis of Saudi intent and energy market dynamics.

What do I believe is the "will" and "intent" of HRH ABS and why is it important for all energy investors to understand? That was my opener on @marketcall today. Also hear why I'm very bullish on Canadian oilsand/heavy oil stocks: https://t.co/a6fAQQHnjV https://t.co/48KaYheDij


Summary: Ongoing bullish stance on natural gas stocks.

"We remain bullish"™ natural gas stocks. https://t.co/JzcFgXHzet


Summary: Canadian energy cos. can sustain dividends/production at $51 WTI; US shale production to fall 0.5MM+ Bbl/d at current oil prices.

Canadian energy co.'s can weather this storm. $51WTI by our estimates on average to sustain both dividends and production vs. US shale to fall by 0.5MM Bbl/d or more at current levels, representing the theoretical demand loss of a 0.5% drop in global GDP!
https://t.co/Uf9KqPwRSs https://t.co/khJt8ml0YX


Summary: Bullish energy stocks into 2024; dismisses inventory build/demand concerns and argues sector can outperform without oil price tailwind.

The debate that was not meant to be (for now) -> hear why I do not believe in Q4'23/2024 inventory builds, weak oil demand, and hyper-growth from Iran/Iraq in '24 + why energy stocks do NOT need a higher oil price to be able to do very well: https://t.co/QhJ4hHfEww https://t.co/EqnkhtgZDc


Summary: Energy stocks still have upside to close the gap vs oil's recovery.

Queued up and ready to go! Oil has recovered all of its macro-anxiety induced losses...energy stocks still have some work to do. https://t.co/uaR30yFNWf

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Every day above $80WTI is a spectacular day! https://t.co/tHJHrULWFN


Summary: Author endorses TPH thesis: Gulf Coast nat gas faces emerging supply crisis with ~5 Bcf/d shortfall by 2030 deepening to ~9 Bcf/d by 2040 on LNG demand surge.

Reason to be bullish natural gas: "we believe the Gulf Coast natural gas market faces an emerging supply crisis driven by surging LNG demand. Currently tight, the market could experience a ~5 Bcf/d shortfall by 2030, deepening to ~9 Bcf/d by 2040." -TPH


Summary: Bullish Brent crude to $90 by YE2024 on OPEC cuts driving inventories to record lows.

With an expected continuation of Saudi/OPEC voluntary cuts into 2H'24, we see global oil inventories falling to record low levels by YE'24, supportive of $90 Brent (zero political risk premium). https://t.co/u7cedNNi04


Summary: Bullish energy sector and oil in 2H 2023 on historic inventory draws, bombed-out valuations, and deeply negative sentiment.

So far 2023 has been an exhausting grind filled with non-stop recessionary fears + confusing government policy (Russia, US ->Iran/VZ) that has lead to terrible sentiment as measured by net length. This feels like the mirror opposite of 2022 when in June sentiment was euphoric and energy stocks were flying. Given our view of impending historic inventory draws + bombed-out valuations (12% avg. sector FCF yield at $70WTI), we remain bullish on the 2H of 2023...there is still a lot of year left!


Summary: Cautious/bearish on oil near-term: inventory builds running far above historical norms, rising OPEC+ exports, flat demand, and net length near highs.

Brent crude futures proxy on Yahoo Finance

Why do we remain cautious on oil in the short-term?
🛢Global oil inventories have grown by 272MM Bbls YTD vs. 33MM Bbls last year and 64MM Bbls  5 year average – Source: Kpler
🛢Total global oil stocks YTD have risen by 199MM Bbls (9.77BN Bbls to 9.97BN Bbls) vs. 45MM Bbls last year and 5 year average of 127MM Bbls – Source: OilX
🛢Global oil demand has averaged 104.7MM Bbl/d YTD (January-June) vs. 2024 demand of 104.2MM Bbl/d      (+0.55MM Bbl/d YOY), with demand being flat/down YOY for the past 4 months – Source: OilX
🛢OPEC+ exports are rising in line with announced intentions, with Saudi exports up 253,000Bbl/d June vs. May. We expect the OPEC+ voluntary (V8) deal to be completely unwound by October.
🛢Energy Aspects is forecasting 2026 stock builds of 1.9MM Bbl/d. This would take days of supply to 51 by Q4/26 vs. 2017-2023 avg. of 47 days. If this actually came      to pass, regression of days of supply: price would suggest an average Brent 2026 price of $57 with a Q4/26 price of $51. I think OPEC acts ahead of this, so NOT our base case.
🛢Net length is ~ back to the normalized highs of the past 2 years
🛢US shale must act as the balancing mechanism. With the current strip >$60, we struggle to see how this happens.


time to be contrarian??? ... we do not need an oil price higher than spot ($80WTI) in order for Canadian oil companies, many with decades worth of low-decline inventory, to do very well

Summary: Contrarian long on Canadian oil producers: low-decline inventory means they thrive at current $80 WTI; sentiment trough = opportunity.

PSA: we do not need an oil price higher than spot ($80WTI) in order for Canadian oil companies, many with decades worth of low-decline inventory,  to do very well. Sentiment still stinks...time to be contrarian??? https://t.co/N0KykIXEWc


we remain bullish on Canadian oilsand/heavy oil stocks

Summary: Bullish Canadian oilsands/heavy oil equities on WCS >C$100/bbl, CAD cost structures, low decline rates, long inventory, strong balance sheets, and 75-100% FCF return commitment.

In Canadian $, the price of Canadian heavy oil (WCS) is already trading over $100/bbl. Combine this with cost structures in CAD, low corporate decline rates, multi-decade long inventory lives, the strongest balance sheets in their history, and a commitment to soon return 75%-100% of FCF back to investors, and you can understand why "we remain bullish" on Canadian oilsand/heavy oil stocks.


Summary: Bullish energy stocks and forecasts avg $80 WTI in 2025 on OPEC+ discipline and below-average global inventories.

Will OPEC+ return curtailed production back onto the market and what does it mean for the oil price?
🧵THREAD

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Global oil inventories are now at their lowest level as far back as Kpler satellite data exists (2017). This is in spite of disappointing Chinese demand and the absorption of 215MM net bbls from the SPR, and involved herculean efforts and leadership on the part of HRH. https://t.co/IIXSzE9TDP

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Assuming the full return of curtailed volumes as outlined by OPEC+, "days of supply" would remain below average levels but global inventories would rise and exceed "normal" historical levels. This suggests OPEC+ would be "pushing" barrels onto the market vs. having them "pulled." https://t.co/2rqEGLcbka

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This "forecast" ignores the impact of compensation cuts (despite recent success) which would more than offset all of the scheduled increase in production through 2024. "Speak softly and carry a big stick" seems to now be working, yet the market remains deeply skeptical. https://t.co/Nok3cJgaGE

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The market is split and so am I. In the face of uncertain global demand conditions, returning barrels would go against the doctrine of "preemptive, proactive, and precautionary." Yet, the outlined plan remains highly flexible and market dependent, and helps promote "family unity"

---

My guess then? We see OPEC+ cautiously follow through in October, the cheaters feet are continued to be held to the fire, and if inventories begin to seasonally build more than normal in Q1/25 we see a pause. We remain bullish on energy stocks and believe in avg. $80WTI in 2025. https://t.co/cYvF4XkL3E


Summary: Brent fair value above $80 through end of 2026; inventories below average support price despite OPEC+ output rise.

OPEC+ to begin gradual return of voluntary barrels to the market in April...with emphasis on "gradual" and "adaptable". Was not the consensus outcome. Despite this output rise we see inventories remaining below average with Brent "fair value" staying > $80 to end of 2026: https://t.co/VjgHyZ5r3l


global oil inventories will still go to record lows…we will still lose over 1BN barrels of production…expect a higher floor with an embedded political risk premium. The market may think the crisis is over...it's not.

Summary: Structural bull case for oil: record-low inventories, 1BN bbl production loss, product shortages, SPR restocking, peaking non-OPEC, thin OPEC spare — higher floor ahead even if Strait reopens.

Let's just go there...the Strait "opens" today. What does it mean???
🛢global oil inventories will still go to record lows
🛢we will still lose over 1BN barrels of production
🛢refined product shortages/outages will persist for several quarters
🛢SPR restocking will = ~0.3MM Bbl/d of new demand for the next 4 years (33% boost per year)
Meanwhile, US shale will still be in its twilight, non-OPEC production will still be peaking, and OPEC spare capacity (adjusted) will still only be ~1.5MM Bbl/d, and whose value is less today than before given the potential for another disruption down the road. We are not going back to the old normal...expect a higher floor with an embedded political risk premium. The market may think the crisis is over...it's not.


Summary: Bullish Brent oil $85-$105 over next year, driving record FCF and buybacks for Canadian oilsands/heavy oil equities.

We believe that oil will trade between $85-$105ish Brent for the next year, leading to record free cashflow (and share buybacks) for Canadian oilsand/heavy oil companies.

Is "Vision 2030" behind Saudi Arabia's voluntary oil production cuts?
@ericnuttall decodes along with his outlook for oil prices.

$WTI | $BRENT | @TanvirGill2 | @WillKoulouris https://t.co/bKIeHajjUY


leading to record free cashflow (and share buybacks) for Canadian oilsand/heavy oil companies


we remain bullish™ on energy stocks as a multi-year investment theme

Summary: Bullish WTI oil to ~$80 floor and energy equities as multi-year theme; consensus $60 seen as wrong given structural supply losses and inventory draws.

Let's ignore the additional sea mine emplacing yesterday and just go with it..."the days away" peace deal is signed and the Strait is going to "open." What is the most bearish scenario for oil???
🛢the most optimistic scenario floated is the Strait will gradually begin to open in 30 days. That takes us to ~July 1st. By then, we will have forfeited ~1.4BN barrels of production
🛢Sultan Al-Jaber of UAE last week said it would take at least 4 months to return to 80% of normal supply. This suggests ~585MM barrels of additional forfeiture amounting to a staggering 2BN barrels of cumulative losses, and that is now the likely best-case scenario
🛢We need to assume no damage to productive capacity from fields forcibly shut-in while the workers were dodging drones and cruise missiles. Iraq most at risk. Large oilfield service co. speculating >5% of total shut-ins at risk = ~700,000bbl/d potential losses. Assume zero.
🛢We need to assume that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are okay paying an "environmental tax" for SofH access to the IRGC who for the past 88 days have been directly attacking them, otherwise we cannot go back to pre-war levels and workarounds are not enough to offset this loss of flow.

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How do balances then look under the most optimistic scenario? There were ~800MM Bbls of excess inventories coming into the war before the global refinery system got pushed into operational stress, and as of April 23rd according to JP Morgan 280MM Bbls had been consumed. With pre-war SofH flows of ~22MM Bbl/d, workarounds of 6MM Bbl/d, refinery run cuts of 6MM Bbl/d, we are still drawing ~6-8MM Bbl/d from global inventories, visible or otherwise, every day. Early July continues to triangulate for when things begin to break. That is when we go from pricing deficits to pricing shortages (h/t Jeff Currie).

So, under the most optimistic scenario, we still reach tank bottoms in certain geographies = shortages, US inventories still get pulled down to historic levels before price reduces exports or we get a US refined products export ban, SPR restocking + inventory refilling = >0.45MM Bbl/d of new demand for the next 3 years, a political risk premium likely remains in the oil price, some element of loss of OPEC productive capacity remains, and a 2027 WTI strip of $74 appears too low to incentivize meaningful short-cycle growth.

This to us is the most optimistic "day after." While consensus is that we just go back to normal and oil falls to $60, we believe the likely new floor price is ~$80WTI. Given energy stocks are discounting $65-$70WTI, "we remain bullish"™ on energy stocks as a multi-year investment theme.


Summary: First LNG exports from Canada's terminal later this year seen as a significant positive catalyst for Canadian natural gas producers.

Canadian nat gas producers: Tourmaline, Advantage, ARC

While to build our first LNG export terminal it took Canada longer than it took the US to first land a man on the moon, first gas exports later this year = significant positive catalyst for Canadian natural gas producers. https://t.co/lbS1jIrbYo


Summary: Bullish multi-year oil bull market call starting 2026; expects meaningful rally in oil equities as inventory/supply headwinds resolve.

We believe we are approaching a multi-year oil bull market that will = a meaningful rally in oil equities. For now though, we wait as inventories are⬆ more than normal and non-OPEC supply growth remains healthy. Market dynamics will change for the better in 2026... https://t.co/HUmpG5roSI


Summary: Bullish oil from 2H 2026 onward and bullish natural gas immediately, based on Canadian E&P meetings.

Takeaways from a day of meeting with Canadian E&P's and why we remain bullish on oil (2H'26+) and natural gas (now!): https://t.co/XqNrJ6DAMm


we remain bullish on Canadian heavy oil producers for the rest of 2023+

Summary: Bullish on Canadian heavy oil producers through 2023 and beyond on strong jet fuel demand.

Just finished up a thorough due diligence trip evaluating European jet fuel demand. Happy to report it remains strong! Here is a podcast I recorded recently about why “we remain bullish” on Canadian heavy oil producers for the rest of 2023+.

https://t.co/2fMNCS3k9t https://t.co/Ynxkv3ylAK


Summary: Strongly bullish energy sector: lowest debt, highest profitability/FCF, and 75-100% return-of-capital inflection months away.

It's a mystery to me why the energy sector remains so hated and ignored. No other sector remotely comes close to comparing: lowest debt + highest profitability, combined with highest free cashflow and months away from 75%-100% return of capital inflection. https://t.co/gckYf1xZNm


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: Supreme Court ruling against C-69 removes political risk discount and may delay emissions cap.

Today the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that Bill C-69, the "no more pipelines bill", was largely unconstitutional. This ruling could mark a significant turning point in Canada's approach to oil and gas production (for the positive), helping to remove the political risk discount applied to CDN energy stocks. Also, is the imminent emissions cap proposal now not so imminent???
https://t.co/qevqrczYyo


Summary: Bullish oil ($85-$105 target) and energy stocks on Saudi supply discipline, falling US rig count, low inventories, and solid demand; expects oil to stabilize and move higher into year-end.

We are now experiencing the 3rd (!) 10%+ plunge in oil this year, once again owing to recessionary f.e.a.r.s, despite there being no evidence of weak aggregate demand in actual data. Why do we remain bullish, and still think a $85ish-$105ish range makes sense? Saudi is in the driver's seat and to doubt their "will" and "intent" would be foolhardy. The US oil rig count has fallen by 19% YTD and 2023 looks like a peak US shale growth rate. The challenges of insufficient investment by the supermajors persist. Global oil inventories sit at multi-year lows and look to end 2023/24 at a 302MM Bbl / 647MM Bbl deficit to normal, and did I mention that demand is just fine??? By our estimates, energy stocks are discounting <$60WTI vs $82WTi spot, and every day get nearer and nearer to their final debt targets. Once we emerge from seasonal refinery turnarounds, the resumption of meaningful inventory drawdowns should we believe allow oil to stabilize and move higher into year-end.


Summary: Remain bullish Brent crude into summer; supply drawdown to record lows by year-end implies >$90.

Weak financial demand for oil ->large paper liquidation over the past week. We remain bullish heading into the Summer as we see "days of supply" falling to record low levels by year's end suggestive of >$90 Brent.


Summary: Adding to midcap energy/commodity names amid selloff; sees opportunity in stocks trading <3X EV/CF, >15% FCF yields with 20+ years of inventory.

I'm seeing very little buying interest in the midcaps at the moment with largest large vs. midcap divergence in a long time. Makes sense as most are waiting to make sure the macro unwind/volatility has passed. Opportunity is where the "risk" is IMO with many midcaps trading <3X EV/CF and >15% FCF yields with 20+ years of stay flat inventory. That is what we are adding to amidst the selloff.


Summary: Long CNQ and MEG Energy as attractive plays on tariff-uncertainty-driven dislocation in Canadian oil stocks.

I was able to highlight the opportunity that tariff uncertainty is creating in Canadian oil stocks to our American friends in Barron's today, and explained why CNQ and MEG are two attractive opportunities:
https://t.co/4PtDKst4Rf https://t.co/xCmXVjBeTJ


We remain bullish, especially on Canadian heavy oil producers with 30+ years of reserves, rock solid balance sheets, record free cashflow, and a commitment to return 75%-100% of it back to us in the coming quarters

Summary: Bullish Canadian heavy oil producers on tight WCS discount, long reserves, strong FCF, and 75-100% shareholder return commitment.

The discount on Canadian heavy oil (WCS) is now down to $11/bbl, the lowest in ~ a year. "We remain bullish", especially on Canadian heavy oil producers with 30+ years of reserves, rock solid balance sheets, record free cashflow, and a commitment to return 75%-100% of it back to us in the coming quarters.


Summary: Energy equities are undervalued vs current WTI/strip pricing; implied long on the sector.

With WTI trading near $80 and 2025 strip now at $74, very clearly (in our opinion) many energy equities are not discounting current pricing: https://t.co/bBfQTzoW5z


Summary: Bullish on energy stocks broadly; sees exciting opportunities in Canadian energy names.

Join me this Thursday at 2pm ET for a live webinar where I'll be covering the "3 False Narratives" of the oil market that are damaging sentiment, why "we remain bullish" on energy stocks, why we see exciting opportunities in Canada, and more. https://t.co/Sr61oLHlVp https://t.co/Bvu4CjyYai


Summary: Bullish energy/oil stocks even without higher oil prices; lower volatility will drive re-rating.

Allow me to reiterate: we DO NOT need a higher oil price for oil companies/energy stocks to do very well. Inevitably I believe, aided by lower volatility, "seeing" will = "believing." https://t.co/pOhB4OaPSs


Summary: Exclusively bullish on Canadian oilsands/heavy oil equities; argues they thrive even without higher oil prices.

Join me at 12ET on @marketcall today where I'll be covering 2 main themes: why the only thing I want to own are Canadian oilsand/heavy oil stocks, and why I believe we do NOT need higher oil prices for energy companies to do very well.
https://t.co/bxutIjYd3g


Summary: Prefers natural gas stocks over oil near-term given coin-flip WTI outlook and building inventories.

"The most anticipated oil supply glut in history"™ watch part 4: onshore inventories are finally building, though too soon to say if more than seasonally normal. 2026 WTI strip of $60.01 suggests little panic yet. $55/$65 a coin flip short-term = prefer natural gas stocks. https://t.co/pwSVWC29Y5


Summary: Bullish Canadian E&P equities: deep inventory, strong balance sheets, favorable government, cheap valuations as US shale twilight drives capital north.

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF covers Canadian E&P sector

US E&P's, necessitated by the twilight of US shale, are starting to wake up to the opportunity in Canada: deep and high quality inventories, pristine balance sheets, friendly(er) government, and cheap valuations:
https://t.co/Ze93Qj9Dx7


Summary: Bullish on the out-of-favour energy sector as a contrarian opportunity.

Energy remains an out-of-favour, non-consensus, contrarian investment. As a contrarian investor myself, I love it...the best opportunities are where no one else is looking. https://t.co/1zZnnR1RNA


Summary: Author argues current is the most attractive entry point for oil stocks since COVID lows, implying a strong long.

Why I believe this is the most attractive entry point for oil stocks in my career other than the COVID low in April 2020: https://t.co/iP0REphalS


Summary: Prefer natural gas over oil: WTI range-bound at $50-$60 for next 9-12 months; high conviction on nat gas at $4-5/mcf with LNG Canada catalyst.

Given our expectation of a $50-$60ish WTI trading range for oil  and $4-5/mcf  range for natural gas for 2H/2025 + 1H/2026, if you own the TSX energy index for your energy allocation, you’re likely far too overweight oil.

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Why $50-$60WTI for the next 9-12 months? A couple of “if/thens” but demand growth is moderating and OPEC V8 intent on retuning barrels (actual vs. paper) given ongoing cheating = shale declines necessary. $60/$50 = ~0.5/1.0mm bbl/d declines exit:exit. OPEC spare capacity normalization + twilights of US shale = next bull market for oil. For now, we prefer natural gas given 15%-20% FCF yields at $5/mcf, LNG Canada to shrink AECO price differential to ~$1.10/mcf, and higher conviction near-term investment thesis with US/CDN LNG build out and necessary supply growth from higher cost basins like the Haynesville.


Why are we medium/long-term natural gas bulls? New sources of demand. Nat gas is not a bridge fuel...it is THE fuel.

Summary: Medium/long-term bullish natural gas on surging AI data-centre demand adding significant new load to supply.

Why are we medium/long-term natural gas bulls? New sources of demand. Proposed AI data centre in NW Alberta = 1.1Bcf/d of natural gas demand at full capacity. That's 6% of Canada's natural gas production. Nat gas is not a bridge fuel...it is THE fuel.
https://t.co/Q29OFTbdgk


you need not believe in a higher oil price (though we do!) to be bullish on energy stocks

Summary: Bullish energy stocks: even at current oil prices, average company can sustain 16% dividend with flat production.

You need not believe in a higher oil price (though we do!) to be bullish on energy stocks. Believe only in the price that you already see on your screen and the average company we estimate can pay a 16% dividend while keeping production flat. https://t.co/oryc5dmByP


Summary: Shares Goldman's call: Brent to average $77/bbl next quarter on normalization of extreme speculative underweighting and tightening physical market.

Goldman: “In contrast to stronger physical demand, oil financial demand dropped to its new all-time low, and has plummeted by a massive average 7mb/d over the past two months. Together with the tightening physical market, any normalization from the currently extremely low speculative positioning and sizable undervaluation of the Brent 1M/36M timespread should help crude prices to recover further, and we expect Brent to average at $77/bbl next quarter.”


Summary: Author endorses bullish view on Canadian oilsands: improving buyside sentiment on TMX/Pathways progress, superior fundamentals vs L48 shale, cheap valuations.

TPH: ". Between TMX and progress on Pathways Alliance, potentially in the months to come, buyside sentiment on the group [CDN oilsands] may continue to improve, building on the fundamental considerations vs. L48 shale in terms of low-to-no decline production supported by robust reserve life, for less expensive valuations." We agree!


Summary: Oil stocks are mispriced at $60 oil; $80 WTI floor creates meaningful re-rate upside for energy equities.

Ninepoint Energy Strategies Weekly Update: "the investment case is not that oil is going to spike to $200/bbl, it is that many oil stocks are discounting oil in the $60's and we think the new floor is $80WTI offering a meaningful rerate potential": https://t.co/gxSeAOGlv9


Summary: Remains bullish on energy equities with $80 WTI as the 2024 base case.

"We remain bullish" on energy stocks, and believe that an $80WTI base case remains reasonable for 2024. https://t.co/6TuFdEihod


Summary: Bullish energy sector: glut thesis dead, floor raised to $70-80, security of supply dominant — sector now relevant to generalists.

Energy investors should focus on what "the day after" looks like: the glut thesis is dead, the floor price is raised to $70-$80, the energy sector is now finally relevant to generalist investors, and security of supply trumps all else. https://t.co/xY9YDgK4OF


Summary: Long natural gas producers on data-centre demand tailwind; trading at compelling 12-15% FCF yields at strip.

Another day, another newly announced data centre being powered with natural gas. If you're bullish the Mag 7, you have to be bullish natural gas producers, especially with them trading at ~12%-15% FCF yields at strip.
https://t.co/kC8tihoiFm https://t.co/HVOjKBbvFy


we remain bullish on Canadian heavy oil/oilsand stocks

Summary: Bullish Canadian heavy oil/oilsands on TMX linefill, $70-80 WTI, 10-15%+ FCF yields, strong balance sheets, and 100% FCF return by YE24.

Canadian heavy oil/oilsands basket: CNQ, CVE, ATH

TMX linefill in the next few months + $70-$80WTI is why "we remain bullish" on Canadian heavy oil/oilsand stocks: 10%-15%+ FCF yields at spot, strongest balance sheets in history with debt rapidly falling further, and the prospect for 100% of FCF to be returned to shareholders for most companies by YE'24. https://t.co/puLGSu7r4m


Summary: Bullish oil on multi-year bull market thesis; bullish natural gas as part of the 2026 energy outlook.

Last @marketcall of 2025! Oil and natural gas macro, why it has been such a spectacular year for energy investors despite oil's selloff, our outlook for 2026, and why oil is on the cusp of a major multi-year bull market: https://t.co/9uhUyoeaVB https://t.co/be7lJQBajG


Summary: Meaningfully overweight natural gas producers in energy fund; bullish thesis linked.

Why we are bullish on natural gas producers and are meaningfully overweight them in our energy fund: https://t.co/waReDkEPQY https://t.co/Gkfg5R28k2


Summary: Long oil & gas sector; market misprices it as a sunset industry despite deep inventory available cheaply and strong FCF yield.

The oil & natural gas sector is NOT a sunset industry, yet  it is being valued as such when you can get decades worth of inventory for nothing. Too, look at the lack of differentiation between the "haves" and "have nots" with respect to inventory depth: FCF yield in what may be one of my Top 5 favourite charts that we've made.


Energy stocks have greatly lagged the rise in the oil price and are reflecting on average ~$70WTI. we remain bullish given the twilight of US shale, the peaking of non-OPEC production, the lack of meaningful OPEC spare capacity, and the decades ahead of oil demand growth

Summary: Bullish oil ($10/bbl+ political risk premium, glut thesis dead) and energy equities (lagging oil, reflecting ~$70 WTI vs $76 strip) on structural supply tightness and demand growth.

While the worst energy crisis of our lifetimes remains, the Strait of Hormuz was always going to reopen, eventually. I'm more interested in "the day after":
🛢while noisy, oil-on-water inventories are falling by over 5MM Bbl/d with less than 35MM bbls of Russian and Iranian floating storage to unsanction. Production is down ~10MM Bbl/d and will take time to be restored even when the Strait fully opens. The "oil glut" narrative is officially dead as those barrels are gone forever. Too, look for SPR refilling and product hoarding. Biggest bear thesis is no more.
🛢We expect there to be an enduring political risk premium of at least $10/bbl and a renewed focus on "security of supply." We are only one drone away from halting 20MM bbl/d of flows all over again and spare capacity is only valid if you can get it to your customers.
🛢Energy stocks have greatly lagged the rise in the oil price and are reflecting on average ~$70WTI. 2026/2027 strip = $76WTI. Stock picking  matters!
🛢Geopolitical spikes are never good for energy stock price performance..."we remain bullish"™ given the twilight of US shale, the peaking of non-OPEC production, the lack of meaningful OPEC spare capacity, and the decades ahead of oil demand growth.


Summary: Bullish energy sector: fund-flow reversal expected in current year driven by record demand, low inventories, OPEC normalization, shale decline, and improving nat gas fundamentals.

Energy funds experienced massive net redemptions last year (largest since at least 2016) resulting in ongoing selling pressure. We are optimistic that with record high oil demand, record low oil inventories, normalizing OPEC spare capacity, the twilight of US shale, and meaningfully improving natural gas fundamentals, that sentiment could shift this year resulting in funds flow tailwinds vs. headwinds.


Summary: Remains bullish on energy stocks despite crude selloff, OPEC+ barrel adds, and tariff headwinds.

Ninepoint Energy Strategies Weekly update: crude selloff, market panic, OPEC+ V8 adding barrels, tariffs, and 7 examples of why "we remain bullish" on energy stocks: https://t.co/3eOun9v6Bi https://t.co/Yy4Ggkagrz


Summary: Canadian oil equities are underpriced despite 39% FX revenue uplift and ~$100 CAD/bbl realizations; implied long.

The CAD is trading at a multi-year low against the USD. As a result, Canadian oil companies get a 39% revenue uplift + due to excess pipeline capacity (ie. tight differentials) are still getting ~$100CAD for a light barrel of oil! You wouldn't know it in their share prices... https://t.co/XluU8QIxL6


Summary: Bullish on Canadian energy producers: a Montney gas name with 50% production growth + 50% buyback, and an oilsands name with 60% buyback capacity at $70 WTI.

Montney nat gas producers: Tourmaline, Advantage, ARC Resources

What opportunities do we see in Canada? Here is a ~$3BN market cap Montney producer which we estimate over the next 5 years will grow production by 50% while also buying back 50% of their shares outstanding, at which point they will still have 28 years of stay-flat inventory. https://t.co/bAHr2sU6Zj

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Or a ~$3BN market cap oilsands producer with over 50 years of stay flat inventory able to buy back ~60% of their shares outstanding with free cashflow at $70WTI flat. Twilight of shale = need to replace depleted inventory = 🇨🇦. https://t.co/n5AfjfBnea


Twilight of shale = need to replace depleted inventory = 🇨🇦

Canadian oilsands producers: CNQ, Cenovus, Athabasca


we remain bullish on oil and natural gas

Summary: Remains bullish on oil and natural gas going into 2H/25 per their ongoing thesis.

Why "we remain bullish"™ on oil and natural gas, a lookback at the 1H/25, and most importantly our view on where we go from here: https://t.co/lJ0hESYtgT


Summary: Expects weaker CAD from rising taxes/falling productivity; sees this as a tailwind for Canadian energy companies via 38% revenue uplift vs US peers.

I’m an optimist, so the upside I can find in rising taxes and further falling productivity/competitiveness is a likely weaker Canadian currency…a huge benefit for Canadian energy companies who now get a 38% revenue uplift vs. their US peers. Sunny ways!


we remain bullish on natural gas as LNG demand continues to ramp from 17Bcf/d to 29Bcf/d by 2030, power demand is growing at its fastest pace in decades, North American demand is set to grow by 45Bcf/d (~36%) over the next decade

Summary: Bullish natural gas long-term on LNG ramp, surging power demand, 45Bcf/d NA demand growth, and $4+/mcf floor from higher-cost supply.

Weather has not cooperated this Summer, but "we remain bullish"™ on natural gas as LNG demand continues to ramp from 17Bcf/d to 29Bcf/d by 2030, power demand is growing at its fastest pace in decades, North American demand is set to grow by 45Bcf/d (~36%) over the next decade, the "rapid transition" narrative is crumbling, and desperately needed supply growth must come from higher cost basins supporting $4+/mcf over the long-term.


Summary: Multi-year bull case for oil ($80 WTI floor) and energy equities: falling inventories, geopolitical risk premium, production shut-ins, refiner windfall, SPR refill demand, and massive FCF/buybacks ahead.

While we remain deeply skeptical, let's assume that today is "the day after." What does it mean for energy stocks???
🛢the glut narrative is dead as global oil inventories will continue to fall over the next several months, approaching "normalized" levels in the next 2 weeks and still likely all-time lows by ~ end of May (product rationing/shortages still imminent) = higher baseline for fundamental floor price ($70-$80WTI vs $60 before?)
🛢what will prevent Iran from ever doing this again (halting flows through the most important energy chokepoint in the world with a $30,000 drone)? = political risk premium of $10-20/bbl ADDED onto the new floor price = ~$80WTI?
🛢production shut-ins remain at ~11MM Bbl/d...for this to return we need tankers to leave the Strait, empty, and return (~2.5-3 months) = enduring impact even IF the Strait fully opens (500MM+ Bbls!)...the prospect for formation damage is not zero (especially in Iraq) and lead time to full restoration long even with adequate offtake (Kuwait said 3-4 months to normalize production)
🛢still TBD extensive damage to refining capacity = expect higher-for-longer crack spreads and windfall for refiners/integrateds...product stocks were already low coming into the "excursion"...will take years to normalize
🛢will the Saudis and Emirates allow Iran to "toll" the SofH and have a de facto chokehold on flows? Seems unlikely and new pipeline bypasses would take years
🛢the ~400MM Bbl SPR release will be refilled = future demand for several years (~350k Bbl/d for 3 years?)
🛢energy is once again relevant to large generalist US investors and many would have been hesitant to chase the recent rally = sector is now much more investable
🛢net/net - we still believe $80WTI is reasonable for 2027, with many stocks trading at 15% FCF yields, and some even lower than when the war began

Summary: we believe that oil remains in a multi-year bull market and stocks were never discounting the recent oil price spike. Production growth will remain muted, share buybacks will continue, and our favourite names at $80WTI will be able to retire 30%-50% of their outstanding shares over the next 5 years while retaining 30-50+ years of stay-flat inventory at a time when non-OPEC production is peaking and pre-conflict OPEC spare capacity is low.


Summary: Bullish Brent crude: paper market net short for first time ever while physical inventories at all-time lows — extreme contrarian long setup.

Calling all contrarians! Not only is net length (ie. financial demand for oil) at its lowest level in history, but the paper market for Brent is now NET SHORT...first time in history. All the while physical global oil inventories are at or near ALL TIME LOWS. What a set up! https://t.co/p3XpivZeaN


Summary: Bullish oil: global inventories rolling over to 6-month low now, expected to hit 5+ year low by year-end.

It has been a long and exhausting wait, but global oil inventories, both onshore and oil-on-water, are finally rolling over.  Current global inventories are now at a 6 month low, and we expect them to fall to a 5+ year low by year-end. https://t.co/oLIjLj1S3e


Summary: Bullish energy sector: strong fundamentals (shale twilight, OPEC capacity, LNG/AI gas demand) + compelling valuations vs strip pricing.

Energy remains hated, yet show me another sector that is working, has such strong current and medium-term fundamentals (twilight of shale, OPEC spare capacity exhaustion, LNG and AI natural gas demand growth), and trades at such compelling valuations at strip ($60WTI + $4/mcf) https://t.co/P39fRH5g7W


Summary: Bullish on energy stocks at current $75 WTI; attractive FCF yields without needing higher oil prices.

Oil is currently trading at $75WTI. At $75WTI we estimate that many energy stocks are trading at attractive FCF yields = we believe we do not need a higher oil price for many energy companies to do well.


Summary: Long WTI to $100+ and oil producers on Strait of Hormuz closure; positioned via call spread.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains "closed" (🚢 down ~84%) I believe WTI could reach $100/bbl by Wednesday and make all-time highs 1-2 weeks thereafter. Every day the situation gets exponentially worse. We are positioned in oil producers and a $100/$110 WTI call spread accordingly.


Summary: Bullish natural gas; cautious near-term on oil but medium/long-term bull.

Why are we bullish on natural gas, what is sentiment like on oil, where do we see opportunities, and why have we been cautions on oil recently but remain a medium/long-term bull? I joined @trevor_rose_ a few weeks ago to discuss: https://t.co/MjrQVDPu74 https://t.co/EWNt6Wedl2


we remain bullish on Canadian oil and natural gas stocks

Summary: Remain bullish on Canadian oil and natural gas equities with several supporting reasons.

Several reasons why "we remain bullish" on Canadian oil and natural gas stocks:
https://t.co/RKcfvDLF6F


Summary: CDN energy stocks already fully price in 10% tariff impact; no need to panic, author sees no fundamental case for further selling.

What does a 10% tariff mean for CDN energy stocks?
🛢assuming tariffs last a full year, average cashflow falls by 7% and free cashflow falls by 20% (includes hedging)
🛢Base case $70WTI FCF yields = 13.9%. With full tariff this falls to 11.2%, so we would argue that stocks are fully discounting the tariff - no need for panic!
🛢we believe we are being conservative ($17WCS differential vs. spot $15 and estimates of ~$16)
🛢a rising oil price + falling currency will buffer much of the tariff impact
🛢we believe most of the tariff on CDN oil will be a complete cost passthrough to the US consumer, yet are not modelling this (would mean lower WCS diff)
🛢given modest CF impact we do not see production volumes being impacted, though flows on TMX to Asia (and less to US refineries) could ~0.3MM Bbl/d.
🛢at this point modelling integrated names involved too many unknown variables = low confidence in #'s
🛢we can never, ever allow ourselves to be treated like this again. More pipelines are the answer, and I'll have more on that soon.


Opportunity??? Sentiment remains poor despite record oil demand, US shale stalling, and 'Will and Intent' working.

Summary: Bullish Canadian/global energy sector: top performer with weak flows and poor sentiment = contrarian opportunity on record oil demand + stalling shale.

Unusual year so far: energy is the top performing sub-index (at least in Canada) yet has had the weakest flows. Sentiment remains poor despite record oil demand, US shale stalling, and “Will and Intent” working.  Opportunity??? https://t.co/qHlJu1j62J


The energy sector remains strong at even distressed price levels like $50WTI, benefitting from several years of deleveraging. balance sheets remain in check and dividends covered until the storm passes. Strap in!

Summary: Bullish energy sector: balance sheets and dividends intact even at $50 WTI; ride out the downturn.

The energy sector remains strong at even distressed price levels like $50WTI, benefitting from several years of deleveraging. While not super compelling on a FCF basis, most importantly balance sheets remain in check and dividends covered until the storm passes. Strap in! https://t.co/i5NyhBFJji


Summary: Multi-year bull call on oil and natural gas; recorded client presentation on thesis.

We believe we are on the cusp of a multi-year bull market for oil. Hear why (plus our bullish views on natural gas) in an abridged 20 minute video we recorded for our clients: https://t.co/Bjww403l8R


Summary: Canadian E&P stocks trading far below fair value; aggressive 2024 buybacks expected as companies hit debt targets.

Peters & Co: "Canadian E&P's bought back $1.6BN of stock in September, the highest monthly total YTD." With many companies soon reaching their final debt targets + stocks in our opinion trading far below fair value, we expect buybacks in 2024 to be very aggressive.


Summary: Energy companies will outperform regardless of oil price direction, supported by record demand and record low inventories.

Record high oil demand, record low oil inventories, and "we do not need oil to go any higher for energy companies to do egregiously well" were my key themes with the always on-point @JonErlichman on @BNNBloomberg this morning: https://t.co/qVK2tGGkah https://t.co/HPwjlZsTzI


Canadian energy companies will be the "last man standing" and will weather this oil storm just fine

Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector; expects it to outperform amid oil market stress.

Canadian energy companies will be the “last man standing” and will weather this oil storm just fine: https://t.co/FdeqybCZCu https://t.co/KvLy2KPG9d


Summary: Bearish oil near-term (several months pause), bullish natural gas on better risk/reward.

"Cause for pause" for oil over the next several months while the seeds of the next oil bull market (at some point in 2026) take root...seeing much more favourable risk:reward in natural gas for now: https://t.co/fag3o0gWIq https://t.co/wT1iOo5ldV


Summary: Bullish energy sector: stocks hitting all-time highs while still undervalued/for sale, powered by share buybacks.

Energy stocks continue to make all-time highs, all the while the sector remains for sale. If ever you needed proof of the power of share buybacks, this is it! https://t.co/F73lnEtDJD


Summary: Long Canadian oilsands on long-duration, low-decline, high-FCF characteristics now getting market recognition.

We really like long duration, low decline, high free cashflow assets like the Canadian oilsands, and they are finally starting to get the credit they deserve: https://t.co/3vVNpgf8vz


Summary: Remains bullish on energy/oil-gas equities after Peters & Co. conference; FCF real, deleveraging ongoing, 60–100% FCF return to shareholders in months.

Just back from 2 days of meetings at the always stellar Peters & Co. conference. My takeaways: the free cashflow is real, deleveraging is happening in real-time, the commitment to return FCF back to shareholders is unassailable, and the timeline to being paid 60%-100% of free cashflow via buybacks/dividends is now measured in months. Smiles abound, yet CEO's question why generalists do not see what we see...patience. We remain bullish!


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks; argues upcoming election could remove political risk discount via pro-energy policies.

In one month we have the opportunity to eliminate the political risk discount applied to our energy stocks by voting for:
🇨🇦repealing the pipeline killing C-69 legislation (and C-48/59) and declaring key energy projects in the "national interest"
🇨🇦scrapping the self-flagellating oil production cap that will cost 40,000 jobs and $20.5BN in lost GDP
🇨🇦building more oil pipelines to both coasts to crucially diversify our customer base
🇨🇦eliminating any risk of windfall taxes on the energy sector by choosing a pro-energy PM
🇨🇦recognizing the "business case" in LNG
Let's bring it home!


Summary: Buy Canadian oil stocks on tariff-driven weakness; thesis supported by $70+ WTI, 44% FX uplift, tight differentials, strong balance sheets, and 2025 buybacks.

The most visible cost of living  is when an American pulls up to the gas pump to fill up their car every week. Tariffs on Canadian oil, 60% of US imports and irreplaceable at scale, would be a direct cost passthrough to the US consumer. If implemented, we think tariffs would likely be very short-term and consequently, weakness in Canadian oil stocks to be an opportunity given $70+ WTI, a 44% forex uplift, tight differentials, fortress strength balance sheets, and a commitment for meaningful share buybacks in 2025.


Summary: Oil price spike seen inevitable on massive Middle East supply loss; energy stocks lagging physical reality and must reprice higher.

Given the magnitude of Middle Eastern production losses (13MM Bbl/d) and the inability of meaningful short-term supply adds elsewhere, it is inevitable that demand will have to fall as inventories continue to be sharply drawn down. The challenge though is the magnitude. Even with 3MM Bbl/d of SPR release and modest run cuts to date, we likely need to reduce demand by the same amount as during COVID, the biggest demand shock in history (in bbl/d terms). This is either achieved by government actions like rationing (happening) or price. Likely both. Physical barrels are already trading over $130-$140 and likely heading higher, while the paper oil market will at some point have to reflect the physical reality. Even with a full opening of the Strait of Hormuz today, given voyage lag time a coming price spike seems inevitable, presidential jawboning or not. With each passing day, the floor price is rising, well above what energy stocks are currently discounting.


historical 'days of supply' now implies a 2025 avg. Brent price of $89. Strip now is ~$71 = $18 undervalued

Summary: Oil (Brent) is $18 undervalued; 2025 avg target $89 vs ~$71 strip on OPEC+ schedule extension and mispriced spare capacity.

Depressed sentiment of EPIC proportions is preventing the oil market from seeing just how bullish last week's outcome was. Deferring the return of curtailed volumes to April (avoiding Q1 seasonal demand dip) and extending said schedule to 18 months vs. 12 months is HUGE... 🧵 https://t.co/Lhfb93m72v

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With an expected "final" surge of non-OPEC growth of 1.4MM Bbl/d in 2025 + modest demand growth, had the V8 gone ahead with the prior schedule, inventories were set to exceed historical averages. That is your $50WTI scenario, which is now off the table. https://t.co/gINVYnWQap

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What we now have is the gradual return extending into 2026 when non-OPEC supply growth begins to meaningfully decelerate. OPEC can then have bbls "pulled" from them, and historical "days of supply" now implies a 2025 avg. Brent price of $89. Strip now is ~$71 = $18 undervalued. https://t.co/Qv4RElkoP3

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Why the disconnect? One reason is the market believing in 6-8MM Bbl/d of spare capacity (ie. inventories no longer matter to price when it is so large). We think the real number is ~4MM Bbl/d, and is largely held by Saudi Arabia. "Will and intent" matters! https://t.co/yNsX6wJuVQ

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Summary: even with likely too-high non-OPEC supply growth forecasts in '25 and modest demand growth, OPEC+ can now begin normalizing spare capacity without  building inventories and negatively impacting price. We believe oil is mispriced due to erroneous views on spare capacity.


Summary: Bullish US natural gas: disagrees with bearish broker report — production overstated, LNG exports understated, producers more disciplined, ~$4/mcf marginal cost supports strong FCF.

There is a negative broker report out on US natural gas. While weather certainly didn’t cooperate this Summer we think they are too high on production, too low on LNG exports, and wrong about the lack of producer discipline. Marginal supply cost of ~$4/mcf = 11%-14% FCF yields.


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector: aggressive buybacks set to continue in 2025, retiring ~10% of shares outstanding, driving valuation re-rating.

Are energy companies "walking the talk" and buying back their shares? Yes, and here is the proof: in 2024 CDN energy co's bought back $16.5BN of stock ($52BN since 2022) and have since 2022 on average retired 9% of their shares outstanding.  With the sector only recently returning most/all of FCF back via buybacks, we see many companies able to retire a further 10% of their S/O in 2025...rinse and repeat until valuations ultimately re-rate.


Summary: Long energy stocks; record FCF + debt targets hit → meaningful buybacks will drive price appreciation.

Don't fret the short-term inaction of energy stocks to the rising oil price. What I care about is free cashflow. Stock action will eventually reflect the record amount of free cashflow being generated, especially with final debt targets being hit in the coming months, leading to much more meaningful share buybacks.


Summary: Remains bullish on energy stocks for 2025; names still trading at 15–20% FCF yields after Dec tax-loss selling.

December '24 was the worst tax loss selling event in energy stocks that I can recall. We had a front row seat to it. Much of YTD gains is just recovering from that selling pressure. At spot WTI you can still find names trading at 15%-20% FCF yields. "We remain bullish"™ on '25.


we remain bullish on Canadian energy stocks

Summary: Author remains bullish on Canadian energy stocks.

Why "we remain bullish"™ on Canadian energy stocks: https://t.co/lcQHenngnD


Summary: Still early in a multi-year bull market for Canadian energy stocks.

We believe we are still very early in what is a multi-year bull market for Canadian energy stocks. https://t.co/NkoLj1qYRd


we remain bullish on oil and Canadian energy stocks

Summary: Remains bullish on oil and Canadian energy/oilsands stocks, sees record sector free cashflow in 2024 and higher oil prices ahead.

Hear why "we remain bullish" on oil and Canadian energy stocks in this 1 hour webcast in which we outline our case for a higher oil price in the years to come, why we see record sector free cashflow in 2024, and explain the value proposition in Canadian oilsand and heavy oil stocks: https://t.co/wSUQbUGRzI


Canadian energy ETF, oilsands/heavy oil focused


Summary: Long US natural gas on 52% electricity demand growth; US gas producers deeply undervalued at current strip prices vs 19Bcf/d demand growth ahead.

US electricity demand is forecast to grow by 52% over the next 15 years, up from an earlier estimate of 31% just one year ago(!). Staggering growth relative to prior decades, and hugely bullish we believe for natural gas. https://t.co/FNNXKAuJlE

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19Bcf/d of natural gas demand growth over the next 4 years (4.75Bcf/d per year) and a 4-year average natural gas strip of $3.65/mcf are not compatible. At $4/mcf, several large US gas producers are trading at 14%+ FCF yields. https://t.co/ofSJVx9kXp


At $4/mcf, several large US gas producers are trading at 14%+ FCF yields


Summary: Bullish on Canadian heavy oil names; expects massive inventory draws to take global oil inventories to 10+ year lows.

Canadian heavy oil sector: ATH, CVE, CNQ, BTE

Recessionary fears are preventing many from seeing what is coming...massive inventory draws that we believe will take global inventory levels to 10+ year lows. A quick 5 minute chat with @JonErlichman on oil and why I'm focused on Canadian heavy oil names.
https://t.co/AUo4sNNpYF https://t.co/1115qvzDXR


Summary: Remain bullish on Canadian energy stocks for rest of year after ~16% YTD outperformance vs TSX.

It may not feel like it, but with energy stocks outperforming the TSX by ~16% YTD, energy investors are winning, and we remain bullish on the outlook for the rest of the year.
https://t.co/qMaoYI7Xap https://t.co/J59uEsjkrU


Summary: Argues peak bearishness on oil is misplaced; bullish on energy stocks into 2025.

Have we reached peak bearishness on oil and what is the outlook for energy stocks in 2025? Join us this Thursday at 2pm ET for an "advisor only" webcast in which we will walk through our case for why today's uber degree of pessimism is misplaced. https://t.co/JapZboEH4l https://t.co/CFzqokGtWv


Summary: Long energy sector for a multi-year bull market.

How to be invested for the multi-year energy bull market ahead: https://t.co/9YVJ83nwu6 https://t.co/9W6OwoeGwN


Summary: US shale plateau/decline will push oil and natural gas prices higher as OPEC gains power and long-life reserve assets gain strategic value.

The twilight of US shale (plateau vs. decline dependent on price) will have a profound impact on the oil market:
⬆ strategic value of long-life reserve assets
⬆ influence/power of OPEC
⬆ oil AND natural gas price
☠ of US “energy independence” https://t.co/lGUW8WoNza


Summary: Long Canadian midcap energy stocks; views them as mispriced at 18%+ FCF yields with strong balance sheets and deep inventory.

Canadian midcap energy: BTE, WCP, ATH, ARC

We continue to believe that many Canadian midcap energy stocks are mispriced, trading at 18%+ free cashflow yields despite strong balance sheets and decades worth of stay-flat inventory. How to overcome investor apathy? Either M&A, like today, or meaningful share buybacks. https://t.co/sTRC7Obxbo


We estimate the sector trades at a 13% free cashflow yield and 3.9x EV/CF at $80WTI. Further, balance sheets are in great shape positioning companies to still return incrementally more FCF back to shareholders. we remain optimistic on the year ahead! "We remain bullish."

Summary: Remain bullish on energy sector into 2024; attractive FCF yield/valuation at $80 WTI with strong balance sheets, though ceiling lowered to ~$90.

"We remain bullish"...just not by as much as we were earlier this year. Why? We were right on 2 calls: global oil inventories reaching multi-year lows + demand vastly exceeding the ongoing bearish narrative (recession=demand destruction). What did we get wrong? The quantum of supply growth, namely from US and Iran. US supply is outpacing expectations due to moderate efficiency gains, but mainly (2/3 of the growth) from privates goosing production ahead of sales processes (leading to inventory exhaustion). This is non-repeatable. Secondly, Iranian exports are up 0.4MM Bbl/d YTD due to the WH turning a blind eye to sanction enforcement. So, while inventories sit at multi-year lows, the "how did we get here?" is equally as important. We have more spare capacity to chew through in 2024 than initially thought, so the ceiling price is lower ($90?). This does not make us bearish on energy stocks. We estimate the sector trades at a 13% free cashflow yield and 3.9x EV/CF at $80WTI. Further, balance sheets are in great shape positioning companies to still return incrementally more FCF back to shareholders. A rangebound market in 2024 ($80-$90?) means stock picking will be critical. Looking at the entire energy complex (oil, natural gas, services), we remain optimistic on the year ahead! "We remain bullish."
https://t.co/bfeOte1LJz


Summary: Bullish Canadian low-decline, long-reserve-life oil assets as Permian flat growth + consolidation tightens oil macro.

The now 3rd largest Permian producer is guiding for ~FLAT production growth in 2025: US shale is NOT surging. Permian consolidation is very positive for the oil macro, and 31% base decline rates should reveal the overlooked value of low decline, long reserve life assets in Canada


Summary: Bullish oil demand beyond consensus; non-OPEC peak 2027 + Canada's environmental standing make Canadian energy a long-term long.

Canada is in economic trouble. Under the Trudeau government GDP per capita is flat, productivity growth is the lowest in the G7, and debt per Canadian is up >35%. To place a de-facto production cap on a sector that = ~15% of the Canadian economy (costing 51,000 fewer jobs and ~$45BN/year in lost GDP) is economic treason.

We zealously attack a sector that makes up only 0.1% of global emissions when 1 year of Chinese coal plant growth would completely wipe out our efforts. For what gain then?

Industry cannot even vocally defend itself now under existing law (C-59) that threatens oil and gas companies with fines = 3% of global revenue per "offense" of speaking up about their environmental leadership.

I believe the demand for oil will grow much longer and stronger than consensus believes. With non-OPEC production expected to peak in 2027 and Canada's high environmental standing, we are part of the global "solution", not the "problem."

To willingly cede market share to others, many of whom do not respect the environment, is purposeless, self-inflicted economic repression. The world needs MORE, not less Canadian energy.


Summary: Bullish energy stocks; share buybacks will rerate valuations higher.

Weekly video update: 30 minute overview on oil and natural gas macro, and why we believe ongoing, meaningful share buybacks will rerate energy stock valuations: https://t.co/0MJYhtRxOc https://t.co/YiC6tZA5KV


we see 'fair value' for Brent exceeding $90 in Q4

Summary: Bullish crude: Brent fair value >$90 in Q4, WTI floor $80+, on OPEC discipline + demand beat + weak US shale growth.

We believe the June OPEC meeting will result in the gradual return of curtailed barrels due to "stronger than expected" demand and "weaker than expected" US shale growth. In time, the narrative can then shift back to shrinking spare capacity, supportive of a $80+WTI floor. The OPEC cuts and "will and intent" are working exceptionally well.

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Directionally, even with the tapering of OPEC cuts in 2H we see "fair value" for Brent exceeding $90 in Q4. This excludes any political risk premium which in today's environment seems warranted. $90 is a fair price for both the producer and the consumer, and any higher in an election year risks another round of political intervention.


Summary: GE Vernova backlog data implies 8.6% incremental US natural gas demand; author explicitly bullish nat gas.

GE Vernova: 33GW backlog + 29GW slot reservations = 9.3Bcf/d of natural gas demand growth (up 16% sequentially from Q2 and = 8.6% of current US supply). Very bullish natural gas! https://t.co/1DeYDE1XWl


Summary: Remains bullish on energy stocks with 3 mid-cap picks for the year ahead.

I was happy to sit down with @baystreetamber on her new podcast @inthemoneypod to chat all things energy: tariffs, natural gas, oil, politics, why "we remain bullish" on energy stocks, and 3 mid-cap picks for the year ahead:
https://t.co/A33mYoExIS https://t.co/MiiCycjFf6


Summary: Bullish on unnamed $12BN Montney/Duvernay E&P: cheap at 4.6x cash flow, 11% FCF yield, 7% dividend, <1x debt — energy sector mispricing as opportunity.

Want proof that the energy sector is inefficient = opportunity rich? You can buy a $12BN market cap Montney/Duvernay company with 25+ years of stay-flat "premium" inventory, dividend yielding 7% with little debt (<1X), at 4.6X cashflow and an 11% FCF yield at $60WTI. https://t.co/dKLy6uicGS


Summary: Bullish oil and oil equities: Red Sea disruption to forfeit >1.8Bn barrels, safety buffers exhausted, seasonal demand rising; $75 2027 WTI strip too low, equities pricing in $70 or lower is a buying opportunity.

Helima Croft: "we are very skeptical of a June grand reopening or even that maritime traffic will return to February 27 levels for the foreseeable future."

Even with a July reopening, we now think the world will forfeit >1.8BN barrels of oil, a staggering sum that the world is completely apathetic to. Safety buffers (SPR, inventory surplus, ships in transit) have now been exhausted and demand is set to seasonally strengthen. We expect regional product shortages to soon begin to manifest leading to a reality check in the coming weeks. The oil price will have to act as the balancing mechanism requiring a significantly higher price, and given the to-date effective WH jawboning, will now last longer than it would have without the direct market intervention. Oil equities are discounting $70WTI or lower and we think the 2027 WTI strip of $75 is too low. Complacency = opportunity.