Summary: Exit natural gas (trade DOA) and rotate into Canadian midcap oil equities at 15% FCF yields.

Canadian midcap oil stocks: BTE, WCP, ATH

@Energy_Tidbits Time to roll any remaining natural gas exposure into CDN midcap oil stocks trading at 15% FCF yields as the natural gas trade of 2019/2020 is looking DOA #OOTT

For perspective on a mixed NOAA 6-10 outlook cold in west/warm in east. Colored EIA residential demand by state to link to NOAA - red font for warm, blue font for cold temp. So mixed temp forecast, but negative to #NatGas as Jan normally sees warm states ~25 bcfd vs cold ~7 bcfd. https://t.co/9jfsOOpB0X


Summary: Long energy stocks: supportive oil inventory data and current ~$52 WTI pricing already discount enough; expects meaningful rerating after summer doldrums.

With the market in a tizzy over delta surges oil inventory data continues to be supportive. Importantly, after the recent sell off with stocks discounting ~$52WTI I don't believe we need higher oil prices to get a meaningful rerating in energy stocks post-Summer trading doldrums https://t.co/4CD1hbKY9y


Summary: Bullish Canadian E&Ps: cheapest globally with highest FCF yields; normalized differentials + buybacks/dividends post Q1 panic.

6) Canadian E&P's are the cheapest in the world yet have the highest free cash flow yields...without adequate egress. Normalized differentials in the medium term = another boost to FCF (and buybacks and dividends). Buy the panic...bull market post Q1 seasonal oil demand weakness https://t.co/vnGutgEdUL

1) As the market freaks out over short-term demand destruction from the coronavirus (SARS dented demand by 0.26MM Bbl/d in '03) , I'm focusing on what will matter after the panic ends: US growth deceleration, peaking of global offshore production, and Canadian egress solutions: https://t.co/WmVYvxXKMw


Generalists return en masse to the energy sector realizing that 40%+ free cashflow yields should not exist. Many stocks go up 100%+++

Summary: Multi-step bullish oil playbook: WTI $60+ through 2021-22 on inventory normalization, OPEC spare capacity exhaustion, and post-shale supply crunch; energy equities re-rate 100%+ higher.

My oil playbook: Step 1 is normalizing global inventory levels by ~June supporting a ~$60+WTI price for 2H'21. COVID demand shock is officially behind us while its structural impact on supply begins to become more obvious to the masses with the lack of meaningful US shale growth. https://t.co/qGXuQIjH7i

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Step 2 is OPEC slowly brings back shut-in capacity throughout 2021 as demand normalizes (~4.8MM Bbl/ of OPEC "core" plus "up to" 1.8MM Bbl/d from Iran). This effectively exhausts OPEC spare capacity by YE'21. Oil firmly set at $60 or higher now. US discipline is tested and holds. https://t.co/zrqxEmeAes

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Step 3: the world enters a post-Shale world in 2022 with exhausted OPEC spare capacity and plateauing/falling non-OPEC/US production due to 5 years of insufficient investment. Oil back then was >$70WTI...more bullish setup this time??? https://t.co/5jr3x29bec

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Step 4: Generalists return en masse to the energy sector realizing that 40%+ free cashflow yields should not exist. Trading multiples re-rate from 2x-4x to 4x-6x and EV FCF yields fall to 10% or less. Many stocks go up 100%+++. https://t.co/fAq4zvheZq


Summary: Bullish energy sector on falling inventories, surging demand, supply constraints, and strong FCF generation.

Oil -4% yet energy stocks in the green?!? Find out why as well as what I'm focusing on (and not on) in the coming months with @greg_bonnell at 3:30pm ET today on @BNNBloomberg

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Falling inventories, surging demand, and challenged supply growth is what matters...not geopolitics. Here is an 8 minute interview in which I speak to the incredible free cashflow being generated by the sector https://t.co/GisRwCAli9 https://t.co/eihPtLTZ85


Summary: Oil stocks near 10-year low vs oil strip with depressed speculative length — bullish setup into record FCF earnings season.

Oil stocks near a 10 year low versus the oil strip while net speculative length has fallen to the lowest level since December 2020…not the worst setup heading into what will be a barrage of record free cashflow earnings releases. https://t.co/qvGWifQbSj


Canadian energy stocks are exactly what global investors are going to want in 2021 with the backdrop of normalizing demand post-COVID and structural damage to supply growth

Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks into 2021 on post-COVID demand normalization and structural supply damage; Goldman Sachs agrees.

Catch my presentation (starts at the 20:50 mark) from last night’s @theCAODC symposium where I explain why Canadian energy investors should feel bullish heading into a post-covid world in 2021 https://t.co/B3w8SmSqIn

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Last night I said that Canadian energy stocks "are exactly what global investors are going to want" in 2021 with the backdrop of normalizing demand post-COVID and structural damage to supply growth. Tonight Goldman Sachs seems to agree: https://t.co/zXXhqhYzfU


Summary: Bullish on energy equities decoupling from near-term depressed oil prices as the worst of macro headwinds nears an end.

While short-term macro for oil is undeniably challenging with regional tank tops in the next 1-2 months, headlines like these should increasingly provide visibility that the worst is soon over + the end is in sight allowing energy stocks to decouple from ST depressed oil pricing. https://t.co/3OPbScPJOH

Big 3 weekly product build of 30.5MM Bbls (largest ever). It is amazing to see how much damage can be inflicted in just a few weeks (with more to come). Tank tops next 1-2 months likely with stock draws beginning by Q4. End is in sight. Peak fear within the next month??? #OOTT https://t.co/zlSTJ46Mwf


Summary: Biden win is net positive for Canadian oil stocks as KXL death + US permitting hurdles make Canada more attractive relative to US shale.

I'm asked everyday now "What will a Biden win mean for the energy sector?" While a frac ban on federal land seems obvious and permitting will likely become more difficult in general (further challenging shale growth), the biggest impact will be on KXL... https://t.co/qj5ty5MfvM

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With a Biden win, KXL is likely dead. 10 years ago this would have been negative for Canada. Today in a world of "no growth / maximize free cashflow" TMX+Line 3 provides more than enough future takeaway. Biden win = good for Canadian oil stocks (makes US less appealing), not bad. https://t.co/x5ilqiWU9q


Summary: Remains bullish on oil and energy stocks as a generational buying opportunity.

Join me tomorrow, Wednesday September 21st at 1pm ET, for a LIVE webcast. I'll be reviewing why we remain bullish on oil and why we believe energy stocks (still) represent a generational opportunity. https://t.co/dvKnDxKuwF https://t.co/RIVWZaxexI


Canadian energy stocks are the most mispriced in the world...15%+ free cash flow yields will not last forever

Summary: Long Canadian energy stocks; author argues they are the most mispriced globally and 15%+ FCF yields are unsustainable, implying re-rating ahead.

Are foreign investors returning to the Canadian oil patch? YES! Canadian energy stocks are the most mispriced in the world and the Ninepoint Energy Fund has a 100% weighting to them...15%+ free cash flow yields will not last forever.  #OOTT https://t.co/GHUAapbZSc


Summary: Bullish US energy stocks as oil market heals, inventories normalize, Big 3 below 5-year average for first time since Apr 2020.

Need another sign that the oil market is healing??? The US year-over-year oil surplus just fell by 35% in a single week (!) to now only 26.5MM Bbls while the "Big 3" YOY surplus fell by 18% to 44.8MM Bbls. Normalized inventory levels by Spring vs. Summer??? https://t.co/TGnCLEfwVJ

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For the first time since April '20 US "Big 3" inventories are now below the 5 year average.  Can we (and energy stocks) now finally look towards a post-COVID, post-US shale world??? https://t.co/XG0IvL8k7s


Small corrections are not only normal but necessary, as they offer a chance for those who thought they 'missed it' to join the party

Summary: Buy the dip in energy stocks; pullbacks after overbought rally are entry opportunities, not exits.

Energy stocks have ripped and became technically overbought. Small corrections are not only normal but necessary, as they offer a chance for those who thought they "missed it" to join the party. https://t.co/OsfLYrzZeJ


Summary: Long energy stocks: even at $70 WTI, generational returns available via 3X EV/CF and 30% FCF yields.

While things are feeling pretty phenomenal just a reminder: we don't need $80+ for energy stocks to offer generational opportunity type returns IMO. Perhaps rising prices allow the holdouts to believe in a meagre $70WTI (my '22 base expectation) = 3X EV/CF + 30% FCF yields on avg

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Time for investors to "connect the dots"... https://t.co/tgw8QA2J4I https://t.co/XZbungrg2X


25%+ free cash flow yields will not last. Either companies begin to launch MEANINGFUL share buybacks or PE will eventually step in and resolve the disconnect between fundamental vs. Market valuations. I'm recently buying positions in names trading at 2.5x EV/CF...this is historic

Summary: Actively buying Alberta energy names (CPG, PTE, VET) at 2.5x EV/CF; calls 25%+ FCF yields historically cheap with buybacks or PE re-rating as catalyst.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

25%+ free cash flow yields will not last. Either companies begin to launch MEANINGFUL share buybacks or PE will eventually step in and resolve the disconnect between fundamental vs. Market valuations. I’m recently buying positions in names trading at 2.5x EV/CF...this is historic

It is just a matter of time before we see this in Alberta. $CPG $PTE $VET @ericnuttall https://t.co/aFGWT87U75


Summary: Bullish Canadian nat-gas producers on better balance sheets, FCF, and infrastructure vs US peers; argues the valuation discount to US peers should close.

Canadian nat gas producers: Tourmaline, Advantage, ARC

I'm confused why Canadian natural gas producers still trade at such a humungous discount to their US peers (~1/2 the multiple)? We have better balance sheets, more free cash flow, and much improved regional infrastructure. Here is a chart from Peters & Co. Time for a rerate??? https://t.co/r2nW4Vghr1


32% avg. FCF yields will not last! ... this meaningful return of capital will drive a re-rating in valuations back closer to more reasonable levels

Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector: massive buybacks + 32% FCF yields signal a valuation re-rating higher.

Buyback update! In June, energy companies bought back $5.4BN of stock, which was the largest one-month repurchase of stock of any TSX sub-sector in ~2 years, and likely the busiest month for energy sector buybacks in history! https://t.co/GQg2CN6KIG

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With the average CDN energy company able to privatize and pay off all their debt in just 3.2 years with free cashflow, I believe this meaningful return of capital will drive a re-rating in valuations back closer to more reasonable levels...32% avg. FCF yields will not last! https://t.co/YnC0cVsxki


Summary: Shares RBC's bullish WTI $67/bbl call with upside skew; separately bullish on undervalued energy midcaps as fund flows are just beginning.

Respected oil forecaster/barrel counter @michael___tran at RBC calling for WTI to average $67/bbl for the remainder of 2019 with price risk "skewed to the upside" #OOTT https://t.co/jCIpph4BGU

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The change in energy sentiment is palpable...2nd day in a row of generalist fund managers on @BNNBloomberg talking about how undervalued the sector is and highlighting midcaps. Funds flow into them is just beginning...everyone was afraid to be early.


Summary: Energy stocks woefully undervalued vs bullish fundamentals; bearish macro fears create opportunity.

Eric Nuttall: Energy stocks remain woefully undervalued despite the massively bullish backdrop. Why? Recession fears? Energy ignorance? Read my explanation in my 22nd column for the @financialpost.
https://t.co/DNyLbMg7aC


Summary: Long energy stocks and WTI crude; author's $70 base case vs market's ~$55 implied price signals sector undervaluation.

At the risk of sounding redundant, reality is not matching up with the negative market narrative of imploding demand. With energy stocks discounting ~ $55WTI versus my 2022 base case of $70WTI, fundamentals offer solace when the day-to-day volatility does not. https://t.co/hP7Yl9MLZg


Summary: US shale deceleration repairing sentiment; energy stocks should better reflect fundamentals — implied bullish on energy equities.

US shale growth rate deceleration critical to repairing sentiment = allow energy stocks to better reflect actual fundamentals. June data just out...down over May and the YOY growth rate further declined to only 1.1MM Bbl/d...below July oil demand YOY growth rate of 1.3MM #OOTT https://t.co/0MAmi8hBqF


Summary: Canadian energy stocks will fare better under Biden than feared; implied bullish.

A Biden Presidency will have a much more benign (and potentially positive) impact on Canadian energy stocks than many feared.

Don't worry about Biden — 'Canada's oilpatch doesn't need Keystone XL anymore:' Eric Nuttall https://t.co/Ps3W72QzVH https://t.co/AdfcIrMikl


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy producers; calls the end of the oil downturn and expects a recovery.

@jkenney The end of this oil bloodbath is in sight and Canadian energy producers will prosper once again https://t.co/Eu4cjAs7SL

Western Canadian Select oil is now trading at negative prices.👇

Killing & delaying pipelines landlocked us.

#Covid19 collapsed demand.

The Russian-Saudi price war surged supply, filling up inventories.

The future of hundreds of thousands of Canadian jobs is at stake. https://t.co/n2pGHsh30E


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy names on strong fundamentals, 8%+ dividends, FCF, and deep YTD underperformance vs WTI; buyer strike seen as unjustified.

For those of us left (not many), to watch CDN energy names fall yet another 3%-6% despite strong balance sheets, 8%+ dividend yields sustainable with oil>$50/bbl, FCF, YTD underperformance vs. WTI of 20%+, and catalysts on the way, it is truly humbling. Total buyers strike #OOTT https://t.co/bTkxpMgPTk


Canadian E&P's = cheapest valuations + worst sentiment in the world + catalysts to change both. 2020 is the turn. Be exposed.

Summary: Strongly bullish Canadian E&P sector: cheapest valuations, worst sentiment globally, catalysts ahead; 2020 is the inflection point.

@BNNBloomberg Rafi and I are the 2 last remaining long-only energy fund managers of note left in Canada...and we both see profound opportunities domestically. Canadian E&P’s = cheapest valuations + worst sentiment in the world + catalysts to change both. 2020 is the turn. Be exposed. #OOTT

Canadian energy ‘on the edge of extreme profitability’: Canoe Financial’s Tahmazian https://t.co/a1XzTqNP4x


Summary: Bullish on US energy stocks: shale deceleration + US/China trade truce sets up a meaningful rally.

US shale growth update: US Silica guides down Q4 frac sand volumes to -15% Q4/Q3 vs. 10% previously. Goldman cuts '20 growth to 600k bbl/d. US shale growth deceleration + US/China trade truce = potential for meaningful rally in energy stocks #OOTT https://t.co/T4eUYV6R53

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Simmons: 13 US E&P's have provided 2020 capex budgets...$20.7BN vs. $24.6BN...down 16% YOY! Great for oil macro. Not so good for service stocks. Tempting valuations with massive discounts to replacement cost/book value but what can make them rally with this backdrop? #OOTT


Summary: Bullish Canadian resource sector if political scandal around Wilson-Raybould continues to escalate.

Canadian resource sector: energy + materials ETFs

“Privilege is not mine to waive” and hoping for the opportunity “to speak my truth” sound like fighting words to me. Resource sector to rally if this continues to snowball

‘I hope I have the opportunity to speak my truth’: Wilson-Raybould as vote on public inquiry quashed https://t.co/mZxAzAby6k


Summary: Long Canadian energy sector; deplorable valuations would re-rate if companies returned 50%+ FCF via buybacks and dividends.

Here is my "ask" of CDN energy CEOs and Boards: commit at least 50% of your FCF to shareholder returns via dividends and share buybacks. The average company with a D/CF of 0.7x could buy back 10% of its stock and pay a 7% dividend = rerating from currently deplorable valuations. https://t.co/YQAo0crORS


Summary: Bullish energy equities; current valuations are unsustainably cheap with 33% FCF yields at 2019 strip, M&A likely to close the gap.

Energy investors need to endure epic yet temporary frustration from the disconnect between oil and oil stocks knowing that the valuations of today will not last...ex: Company XYZ trading at a 33% free cash flow yield at 2019 WTI strip with 6 years of ~zero-capex production #OOTT https://t.co/DHkmlPHh9P

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How long until M&A? A corporate buyer could offer $6/share (a 50% premium) and would only be paying 3.9x EV/CF and 105% of proved NPV at $55WTI flat (and get $1.1BN of land and seismic for free) = 18% FCF yield at $60WTI with 6 years of zero-capex production


Summary: Bullish energy stocks; selloff likely over with highly material upside seen over months/quarters ahead.

Join me live this Friday at 11am ET for an all-access webcast...I'll be discussing why the worst of the energy selloff is likely over and why I see highly material upside in energy stocks in the months and quarters ahead #OOTT https://t.co/IfvzQOsXA2


Summary: Multi-year oil bull thesis; best expressed via Canadian heavy oil stocks once seasonal weakness and Chinese demand normalize.

Canadian heavy oil stocks: ATH, CVE, CNQ

Don't look now but the WCS differential just fell to a 9 month low! We remain very bullish on oil (once seasonal weakness passes and Chinese demand fully normalizes), and believe the best way to benefit from our "multi-year oil bull market thesis" is in Canadian heavy oil stocks. https://t.co/DeVLugMrku


Summary: Oil set to rally further on OPEC+ cuts, low Iranian exports, and no demand slowdown per XOM/MPC/PSX signals.

Beyond heavy technical/algo/quant selling oil has been weak due to global demand growth concerns and Iranian waivers. With 1.2MM+ Bbl/d OPEC+ cut AND low Iranian exports AND no signs of slowing growth (source:XOM, MPC, PSX)  oil is set to further rally. https://t.co/wQTyOh5yK1


industry='Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing'


Summary: Bullish on Canadian energy stocks as the place to be for energy investors in 2021, driven by peak supply thesis.

12ET today I'll be on @marketcall talking about how the fear of peak demand is leading us to the reality of peak supply + why Canadian energy stocks = the place to be in 2021.  Despite 3 little ones at home today (PD day) it will beat having to go on for this show in April!!! https://t.co/qW0Q4aSvuC

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Here is a link to the show...I tried to cover everything from peak renewable hype to why Canada will be the place to be for energy investors in 2021 to current thoughts on natural gas and short-term strategy. Have a great weekend to all!!! https://t.co/Ywz7TJMKMK https://t.co/zz8p0pC68M


Summary: Bullish Canadian E&P sector: Warren's anti-energy policies would redirect US fund flows northward, catalyzing a re-rate.

Eurasia group, a trusted advisor,calling Elizabeth Warren most likely to win the Democratic nomination. Her anti-energy policies (frac ban, ending oil exports) make our beloved leader look like a pro-energy crusader...bodes well for US fund flows to return to Canadian E&P=re-rate https://t.co/g2W90Y3fCJ


Summary: Bearish Tilray at 170x earnings vs bullish Encana at 15%+ FCF yield; oil stock far more attractive.

Encana rebranded to Ovintiv (OVV) in 2020

Tilray now has the same market cap as @encana ... it is trading at modest 170x 2021 earnings. Why would anyone want to own an oil stock trading at 15%+ free cash flow yields at today's oil price when they can buy that???


Summary: Remain bullish on oil and energy stocks for 2023: recessionary fears overblown, shale disappointment, falling inventories, stocks mispriced.

Our call for YE'22 $100WTI was clearly wrong. We remain bullish on oil and oil stocks for 2023 because we believe:
1) Recessionary fears on oil are overblown
2) US shale will continue to disappoint
3) Oil inventories will continue to fall
4) Energy stocks are profoundly mispriced


Summary: Implicitly bearish ARKK (69x EV/EBITDA overvalued) vs bullish Ninepoint Energy Fund (1.9x EV/CF, 34% FCF yield) as the better value.

Ninepoint Energy Fund / ETF on NEO Exchange

So Cathie Wood of ARK Innovation says her average tech holding is trading at 69X EV/EBITDA, while we estimate the average holding of the Ninepoint Energy Fund to be trading at 1.9X EV/CF at $100WTI (and a 34% FCF yield). Which sounds better to you??? https://t.co/txUcd8LZji


Summary: Bullish oil sector: stocks at 2-2.5x EV/CF are deeply undervalued; FCF-yield-based targets imply >2x upside and a sector rerating.

I believe we stand on the cusp of meaningful returns back to shareholders leading to a sector rerating...too many oil stocks trading ~ 2.0-2.5x EV/CF where target prices embedding 10%-15% FCF yields would equate to a more than a doubling in the share price. https://t.co/NlxOCZ13AK


Summary: Bullish on oil (structural bull market) and energy stocks as a generational buying opportunity.

I was happy to join @SullyCNBC this morning on CNBC to discuss the structural bull market in oil and why energy stocks (still) represent a generational opportunity. https://t.co/EICPsTBd1Q https://t.co/Wtz7O3XolL


Summary: Going all-in long on oil and US shale equities; believes SPR release is a rounding error and lows are in on valuation.

XOP is best proxy for US shale E&P sector

The short-termism of today's SPR release blows my mind. 32MM "new" Bbls is a rounding error yet introduces politically-induced price risk just as US shale co's think about 2022 budgets. IMO we've seen the lows for oil and stocks and I'm going "all in" today given valuations.


Summary: Bullish on CPG and Precision Drilling: extreme multiple compression vs. improved fundamentals means fund flows returning to energy sector will drive significant upside.

Investor apathy resulting from the worst energy bear market in history has led to jaw-dropping trading multiple compression. From January 1, 2017 to now @CPG_Corp is down 77% (while oil is flat at $54) despite CFPS up 2%, debt down 41%, and share count down 5%... #OOTT https://t.co/c2A0mizJcQ

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@CPG_Corp In service land, Precision Drilling is down 74% since January 1, 2017 despite EBITDA up 27%, debt down 27%, and share count down 4%. When funds flow ultimately return to the sector even a modest trading multiple re-rate will = significant share price upside. #OOTT https://t.co/sYRoT8y0Vg


Summary: Bullish on Canadian small/mid-cap energy as deeply mispriced with multibagger potential even at current oil prices.

Canadian small/mid cap energy: ATH, BTE, WCP, ARC

The Canadian small/mid cap energy sector is a target rich environment for potential multibaggers. Here is a ~10% Fund holding that demonstrates the profound mispricing of energy stocks...even using the current oil price: https://t.co/511ChtSycj


Summary: Bullish oil and oil equities; 15% plunge is a short-term speed bump in a multi-year bull market; buying the panic.

XLE dominated by oil majors (XOM, CVX, etc.)

Let's face it: a 15% plunge in oil can't be explained by oil fundamentals IMO. 10+ year long free cashflow streams have been impaired by 15%+ on what is likely a very short-term speed bump in what I believe to be a multi-year bull market. I'm a buyer of fear and a buyer of panic. https://t.co/QNWiSw25By


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector: lower leverage, lower decline rates, and rising takeaway capacity set up maximum free cash flow in a capital-return-focused environment.

In a world of low-to-no production growth, where global energy investors want one thing and one thing only, return of capital, Canada stands out from the pack. Lower leverage, lower decline rates, increasing takeaway capacity...the ingredients for maximum free cashflow. https://t.co/ToD4bWgvXh


Summary: Bullish energy sector into 2021, expecting an epic rally.

I'll be on @marketcall today at 12ET for my final appearance of 2020. Lots to cover: consolidation wave coming in Canada, oil bull market, demand recovery surprising (some) to the upside, and oil predictions for 2021 and beyond. Let me know what else you would like to hear about! https://t.co/qXyV5O3rqJ

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Thanks to everyone for the questions on my last BNN appearance of 2020. As bad as this year was it has set us up for an epic energy rally in 2021!!!https://t.co/PFk7GofW8k


Summary: Bullish energy sector and oil into Q4 on vaccine news, inventory normalization, and sentiment bottoming after 16% sector drawdown.

Good riddance to a miserable quarter in which oil was flat yet energy stocks dived 16% due to an epic negative headline pile-on (BP peak demand, Cali, hydrogen, RDS, etc.). Q4 = vaccine news + inventory normalization to accelerate. Feels like both oil and sentiment are bottoming. https://t.co/MFBfgIEACM


Summary: Bullish Canadian heavy oil producers on expected TMX approval next week, adding ~600k bbl/d of non-US takeaway capacity.

Canadian heavy oil producers: CNQ, CVE, ATH, BTE

TMX update:large diameter coated pipe is rolling through Calgary on its way to Kamloops. We reiterate our view that TMX gets approved next week providing line of sight to almost 600,000Bbl/d of incremental takeaway to non-US refineries. Very bullish for CDN heavy oil co's #OOTT https://t.co/5GSqPMsldN


Summary: Bullish energy sector: debt-free status + high FCF yield at $100 WTI to drive dividend/buyback growth and multiple re-rating from 2.7x EV/CF.

With the energy sector trading at an estimated 26% free cashflow yield at $100WTI, and quickly approaching "debt free" status, we see meaningful increases to dividends and share buybacks in the quarters ahead, potentially re-rating the sector from its current 2.7x EV/CF multiple. https://t.co/PKeQ7xvltx


tomorrow is going to be a spectacular day. At $57/bbl WTI 2020 strip many are doubles to triples from Friday's levels

Summary: Bullish E&P equities: with WTI 2020 strip at $57/bbl vs priced-in ~$47, many E&Ps could double or triple from Friday's levels.

With 2020 and 2021 strip rallying hard and E&P stocks pricing in ~$47/bbl, tomorrow is going to be a spectacular day. At $57/bbl WTI 2020 strip many are doubles to triples from Friday’s levels. #OOTT https://t.co/KIy2MhvXzT


Summary: Energy sector capitulation marks a bottom; bullish on improving demand (China, Japan, Atlantic Basin) and stalling supply growth.

Signs of capitulation over the past few days in some energy names. Good for marking a bottom but painful to endure (and  difficult to understand why someone would sell now with signs of demand improving [China,Japan,Atlantic Basin] and supply growth stalling [US, Brazil]) #OOTT https://t.co/niQADA7fJF


Summary: United Airlines domestic leisure demand recovery WAY ahead of expectations; implied bullish on UAL.

Demand watch: UNITED AIRLINES CEO SAYS DOMESTIC LEISURE DEMAND 'HAS ALMOST ENTIRELY RECOVERED' - U.S. AVIATION SUMMIT....this is WAY ahead of most expectations. https://t.co/ftTU8i80ga


Summary: Bullish Canadian E&P; adequate takeaway via TMX+Line 3, ~$10 WCS diffs, golden age incoming.

While the more takeaway capacity the better, TMX+Line 3 = adequate when few if any oil sand producers are likely to sanction meaningful brownfield expansion (over buybacks and deleveraging) any time soon. Likely ~$10WCS diffs even without KXL. Golden age coming for Canadian E&P.

Keystone XL pipeline faces prospect of being killed off for good https://t.co/8MM34Izkzk


Summary: Seasonal tailwind + low valuations suggest energy stocks, WTI, and BTE could rally again March-May.

Energy Thought of the Day #2: March-May is seasonally the strongest time of the year for energy stocks. Last April-May WTI rallied by $7/bbl and some names like BTE rallied by 75%+ in 1 month. Given the oil macro backdrop and stupidly low valuations could history repeat? #OOTT https://t.co/BdX5c0rjMt


some names like BTE rallied by 75%+ in 1 month. Given the oil macro backdrop and stupidly low valuations could history repeat?


Summary: Bullish on oil stocks; their resilience during a 4% oil selloff is seen as an encouraging sign.

It is still early in the day but pretty encouraging when oil stocks don't go down with oil selling off 4%. https://t.co/uoH6N137UW


Target rich environment: oil, natural gas, services

Summary: Long oil, natural gas, and oilfield services; buying land driller with positive FCF and upside at $50 WTI in a target-rich valuation environment.

Trading colour: you would think in the past month's bloodbath that there had been a wall of selling. Not always the case...it took me 12 trading days to buy 5.5MM shares in a land driller (~$5MM worth). Good sign for rerate potential when I'm no longer the only buyer in the world https://t.co/XBQpg5kMY7

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As bad as this year has been, it is hard to not get excited with current valuations. "Target rich environment": oil, natural gas, services. To be able to buy a stock with positive FCF during the worst possible environment with upside to it FCF'ing its current market cap at $50WTI https://t.co/EUUXkDnz6a


Summary: Actively buying Canadian junior oil equities at deep value multiples; 20%+ dividend yields imminent at $70 WTI.

Canadian junior oil: ATH, Baytex, Whitecap

I'm buying stakes in CDN junior oil companies trading at 1.9x-2.2x EV/CF and 25%-40% FCF yields at $70WTI that in some cases in the next few Q's can start paying a 20% dividend yield (and grow it). Opportunities like this should not exist...yet they do...for now.


Summary: Bullish energy sector: debt paydown complete, Q3 buybacks/dividends incoming should attract generalist investors.

I'm 8 meetings deep at the RBC Energy Conference and one theme is consistent: imminent and meaningful return of capital.  Debt has nearly been paid down. Q3 = sector wide share buybacks and dividend increases.  Perhaps this will wake the generalist from their coma. https://t.co/YdY3t6UP8W


Summary: CDN energy midcaps generating 15% FCF yields that won't last; implied valuation re-rating higher ahead.

Canadian midcap energy: BTE, WCP, ATH, ARC

Another day, another CDN midcap demonstrating how much free cash flow the sector is currently generating. 15% FCF yields will not last. #OOTT https://t.co/88tqcKjbu9


Summary: Bullish energy sector: debt-free soon, 15yr drilling inventory, epic dividends/buybacks ahead, valuations near generational lows.

The energy sector has entered a golden era of free cashflow. Debt free next year and with 15 years of drilling inventory on average, the tsunami of free cashflow can only go one place: shareholders. Epic dividends (and buybacks) ahead + valuations near generational lows! https://t.co/RzhRZnfCJE

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"We are in a golden era of free cash flow." Hear how the soon-to-launch Ninepoint Energy Income Fund (coming March 7th) will seek to benefit from this environment in a 7 minute interview recorded today on @BNNBloomberg with @AndrewBellBNN.
https://t.co/ncaqdc65ux


Summary: Shares multiple Wall Street upgrades to Brent and WTI price forecasts for 2020, implying bullish oil outlook.

Brent crude futures proxy on Yahoo Finance

Wall Street oil price upgrades today: Morgan Stanley increasing '20 Brent forecast to $65/bbl from $60. Citi ups '20 WTI to $61 vs. $56. Macquarie calling for $70WTI in "the next few months." A $5/bbll increase is significant...here's my matrix for a CDN midcap oilco: #OOTT https://t.co/LYg2h5oSLR


Summary: Bullish Canadian drillers/gas producers bought at distressed valuations (<3X EV/CF) and now re-rating; author holds live positions.

The best opportunities often come from periods of maximum fear when uncertainty is at its highest. This particular index event allowed us to scoop up shares in high quality companies at very distressed valuations [<3X EV/CF] that have all subsequently begun to re-rate.

ICYMI: Canada's largest drilling companies and major natural gas producers brace for another setback — exclusion from the S&P/TSX Composite index https://t.co/dYoVQ0x1gP via @nationalpost


Summary: Bullish E&P sector: crude demand will grow for decades yet E&Ps are priced as a sunset industry.

Sounds like the curtain is about to get partially pulled back on the over-hyped promises of "green" energy. The reality is crude oil demand will continue to grow for decades to come. Relevant when E&P's trade as if this is a sunset industry. #OOTT https://t.co/XLjj7s09vC https://t.co/Q14iUpGKuX


Summary: Bullish E&P sector; buybacks at WCP, ARX, CPG signal forced re-rating of trading multiples from generational lows.

Returns!!! WCP bought back a 19.2MM ($133MM) share block on Friday, ARX filed they bought back $100MM in stock in November, CPG announcing a $100MM 1H'22 share buyback. E&P's will (in time) FORCE the re-rating of trading multiples from generational low levels. More to come!!! https://t.co/kfKOHZz5cN


ARX filed they bought back $100MM in stock in November


E&P's will (in time) FORCE the re-rating of trading multiples from generational low levels


Energy stocks look to have bottomed March 18th… Following the same playbook as 2016 but with much more upside???

Summary: Energy stocks bottomed March 18; still multibagger upside from here following 2016 playbook, with stocks still down 70%+ YTD.

Energy stocks look to have bottomed March 18th (XEG/Fund +53%/+70%% since then). Oil printed negative ~ 1 month later on April 20th. Following the same playbook as 2016 but with much more upside??? Many stocks still down 70%+ YTD...still multibagger candidates from here #OOTT

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Energy sector sentiment has clearly improved with notable divergence in recent days (oil stocks up when oil is down). Demand for conference calls with advisors the highest in years + fund inflows nearly every day +Google search trends support that we've seen the worst #OOTT #EFT https://t.co/KXwKjBx48U


Summary: Bullish WTI to $50+ in 2021 on recovering gasoline demand and shrinking crude surplus; VLO demand rebound confirms worst is over.

Valero at the RBC energy conference saying that US gasoline demand is back to 82% of normal. Bull case: inventory builds proved that demand destruction was not as great as initially feared...now signs that demand is recovering faster than most would have thought. $50+WTI in '21 https://t.co/228X66k6CT

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Crude year-over-year surplus shrinks by 9MM Bbls (despite still high imports from Saudi) and DOE confirms VLO's gasoline demand rebound with demand +12% week-over-week. The worst is clearly over. Shale declines vs. return of shut-in production while demand gradually normalizes... https://t.co/XzvCLX5RGZ


Summary: Recommends Ninepoint Energy ETF as a basket of Canadian oil stocks best positioned for FCF returns to shareholders in 2022.

Looking for a focused basket of Canadian oil stocks that in my opinion are best positioned to return the most amount of free cashflow back to shareholders in 2022? Consider the Ninepoint Energy ETF (NNRG:NEO). Refer to the fund prospectus for more details. https://t.co/2etP2xsWLC https://t.co/DchxYYcx3U


People are clearly panicking. This month to me feels very much like December 2015 with energy stocks in free fall... From the end of January 2016 to YE 2016 our Fund rallied by 143%. Lesson: don't panic.

Summary: Bullish energy sector; draws analogy to Dec 2015 panic bottom that preceded a 143% rally; urges buying not selling.

People are clearly panicking. This month to me feels very much like December 2015 with energy stocks in free fall and the market stuck in a negative feedback loop begging for “good news.” From the end of January 2016 to YE 2016 our Fund rallied by 143%. Lesson: don’t panic.

In the past 28 years, there have been two times when every stock in the S&P 500 Energy sector was below their 10-, 50-, and 200-day average and more than half were trading at 52-week lows.

1) During the very depths of the 2008 financial crisis
2) Now


Summary: Bullish energy stocks: trade deal resolution could drive massive re-rate as demand worries ease.

Demand worries have trumped those concerning supply YTD. A successful outcome, even if just optically could easily lead to a massive re-rate for energy stocks. #OOTT

U.S. Negotiators Also Offer to Cancel New China Tariffs Set to Take Effect on Dec. 15 - sources


Summary: Contrarian long energy sector: stocks cheap, oil strip ~$10/bbl underpriced, sentiment bottomed, fundamentals improving.

Sentiment towards the energy sector stinks. I get it. 2020 was to be the turning point and then COVID hit. Yet, many stocks are cheap today at strip and strip is likely $10+/bbl too low while sentiment seemingly can't get worse and fundamentals improving. Time to be contrarian??? https://t.co/xySwo2g0UG


Summary: Bullish on deeply undervalued oil patch equities; 20%+ FCF yields unsustainable — expects re-rating via privatizations or price appreciation.

Coming soon to the oil patch? This is what happens when market valuations dislocate too widely from fundamentals...privatizations at 80%+ premiums. Stocks trading at 20%+ FCF yields will not last one way or another #OOTT https://t.co/4vjy16ng3s


Summary: Expects US/global inventory draws in coming weeks to ease demand fears and bring buyers back to oil and oil equities.

Brent crude futures as global oil commodity proxy

Divergence between the oil price and oil stocks continues to widen as the market suffers from an overall buyer's strike. We look for US (and global) inventory draws in the coming weeks to help diminish all-consuming demand growth fears and bring a bid back into the space!  #OOTT https://t.co/P4bCu6aQYZ


Divergence between the oil price and oil stocks continues to widen as the market suffers from an overall buyer's strike


Summary: Bullish E&P equities esp. Cenovus: deeply undervalued vs Altria comparables; could more than triple if sector returns FCF to shareholders.

"Stuck in an apathetic coma resulting from too many years of poor performance, energy ignorance, and ESG pressures, investors continue to ignore the generational opportunity right before their eyes." Read more in my 10th column for the @financialpost https://t.co/tLG6Wr7WTE

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What if E&P's pretended like the oil sector is  a sunset industry and just flowed all FCF back to investors??? To get to Altria's current valuation (11X EV/EBITDA, 7.5% div yield) a company like Cenovus would have to more than triple. ESG worries? Didn't seem to impact Altria! https://t.co/lvWddjyQN6


I'm still leaning towards Canadian, oily, and small

Summary: Bullish on small-cap Canadian oil equities; sees compelling value across energy with oil, gas, and services all cheap on free cash flow.

Canadian small cap oil equities: ATH, BTE, WCP

The biggest challenge for an energy investor right now? Deciding what to own when everything looks so compelling. Oil, natural gas, services...all generating gobs of free cashflow and trading at a fraction of historical levels. I’m still leaning towards Canadian, oily, and small. https://t.co/se1ONeR47J


Summary: Bullish Precision Drilling: buyback + debt reduction signals underappreciated opportunity that investors will eventually recognize.

"Plan B" continues to be adopted by industry: Precision Drilling this morning announcing a 10% share buyback plus ongoing debt reduction funded from free cash flow. One by one as these announcements stack up the investment public will one day wake up to the opportunity. #OOTT https://t.co/uVqqSoAjPq


Summary: Bullish oil: inventory normalization by spring supports $60 WTI floor; oil equities at 16%+ FCF yields are massively undervalued.

Another huge inventory week with the oil year-over-year surplus falling by 29% and the "Big 3" surplus falling by 18%. Looking like normalized inventories by Spring = $60WTI underpinning. Stocks at 16%+ FCF yields still massively undervalued!!! https://t.co/3mDkanU9Tf


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: sector priced below $60 WTI but offers ~27% FCF yield at $100 WTI with re-rate potential.

Looking for a silver lining to the WTI sell-off? It is better for all of us. CDN energy stocks discounting <$60WTI, $100-$120WTI "happy-enough" zone for consumers, and at $100WTI the sector trades at ~ 27% free cashflow yield, offering loads of "returns" and re-rate potential.


Summary: Bullish WCS producer stocks; 100%+ upside at $60 WTI / $17.50 WCS differential scenario.

WCS-exposed Canadian producers: ATH, CVE, BTE

@Stephen44193985 Jackfish has been soft shopped for 2 years. Not indicative of free cash flow generating capabilities nor improving takeaway backdrop for WCS producers. WCS stocks offer 100%+ upside at $60WTI/$17.50WCS diffs.


Summary: Bullish oil at $100 WTI floor in 2023+ on supply squeeze; energy equities poised to re-rate from 50%-of-historical-avg valuations on capital returns.

Oil trading down $3/bbl because OPEC forecasts oil demand to "only" grow by 2.2MM Bbl/d in 2023? Really?!? Why are so few asking the obvious question: where exactly are the incremental barrels going to come from??? A thread.

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The oil market has been undersupplied throughout the year, evidenced by falling inventories, despite recessionary fears, the largest SPR release in history, and China COVID-zero policies. An impressive feat! https://t.co/6VfynXDFFV

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US shale hyper-growth is over. "Discipline is the new normal" + another year of 15% service cost inflation means 0.5MM Bbl/d +/- of growth in '23 and Energy Aspects is calling for peak shale in '24. https://t.co/mfTEcvgKrX

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Headwinds of '22 becoming tailwinds in '23: SPR ending (~0.8MM Bbl/d) + China COVID-zero easing (0.5-1MM Bbl/d) + Euro fuel switching (0.3+ MM Bbl/d) + EU Russian import ban (0-1MM Bbl/d) = 1.6-3MM Bbl/d swing YOY. https://t.co/pt92PEVlth

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OPEC to the rescue? Not with spare capacity largely exhausted and long-cycle realities delaying meaningful adds to 2025-2027. https://t.co/tF7PJ7H2nx

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Outlook for 2023+? We believe in a fundamental floor of $100WTI. What of stocks? Debt targets being met in real time -> meaningful (finally!) return of capital to shareholders, offering the potential for a re-rate from valuation levels ~50% of historical averages. https://t.co/XZaZqGSLLP


happy to buy energy stocks trading at < 3x EV/CF and 20%+ FCF yields given the accelerating vaccine rollout and commensurate recovery in demand

Summary: Long energy stocks on vaccine rollout, demand recovery, and post-COVID supply-constrained environment.

“I am happy”...to buy energy stocks trading at < 3x EV/CF and 20%+ FCF yields given the accelerating vaccine rollout (I got mine yesterday) and commensurate recovery in demand. It’s all about a post-COVID, supply-challenged world. Everything else is short-term noise. https://t.co/ZZ55IsYYCu


Summary: Canadian small/mid-cap energy stocks down 30%+ are oversold and were mispriced to begin with; implied bullish.

Considering that oil is "only" down about 13% since the high in May, to find many CDN small/mid caps down over 30% is truly staggering, especially when I believe they were mispriced to begin with. Humans sitting on their hands and quants/algos having a field day. https://t.co/EZwTLrTDno


Summary: Bullish on Canadian oil stocks on current market dynamics and positive divergence.

I was privileged to chat with @PTertzakian and @JackieForrest, two luminaries in the oil sector, on their podcast. We covered current market dynamics and why I’m bullish on Canadian oil stocks. Solid week last week with positive divergence! #OOTT https://t.co/vn9K8Gb3nB


If you're not long energy stocks now...you never will be.

Summary: Decisive long call on energy stocks; author says this is the moment to be long.


Summary: Energy equities will decouple from spot oil weakness and rally as the oil market tightens materially in Q3 2020.

Canadian condensate and WCS negative! CNBC flashing WTI (May)-35%...biggest drop in history! Yet...energy names holding up fairly well (-1% to -4%). At some point stocks will diverge from the near-term and discount the meaningfully tighter oil market beginning in Q3'20 #EFT #OOTT https://t.co/gpPNBf7wdt


Summary: Bullish oil to $100 WTI and energy stocks broadly on supply crisis driven by shale discipline, supermajor underinvestment, and renewables hype.

The world is clearly approaching an oil supply crisis.  The ignorant assumption that renewables will displace oil usage in the short-term + shale discipline/exhaustion + supermajor wokeness = $100WTI in coming years. Energy stocks = enormous opportunity. https://t.co/lQ5znfCSFk https://t.co/pfNqeMotxi


Summary: Energy stocks are profoundly mispriced to the upside as markets look past COVID into a pandemic-free 2H21.

As the energy market looks beyond COVID to a pandemic free world in 2H'21 no chart better demonstrates how profoundly mispriced energy stocks are than this one. https://t.co/l4vw8nUxRZ


Summary: Bullish oil and energy equities on OPEC+ floor, SPR expiry, EU embargo, China reopening, seasonal demand, and cheap FCF yields.

"OPEC+ put" in place, SPR ending in 2 months, EU Russia oil embargo December 5th, China starting to re-open, seasonally strongest Q for oil demand, and near debt-free energy stocks trading at a 23%/27% free cashflow yields at $90/$100. What more Mr. Generalist do you need???


Summary: Bullish on energy stocks; author expects the sector to double over the next year.

The Road Ahead: find out why I think energy stocks can double over the next year in this new 12 minute video https://t.co/TUVTkdHMft https://t.co/V4wrFf7nZz


Summary: 100% invested in Canadian oil & gas; endorses Goldman's view that it's the world's top energy opportunity with multi-bagger potential.

Goldman Sachs out today supporting what we believe: Canadian oil & gas stocks represent the most compelling energy opportunity in the world. I'll be on @marketcall tomorrow at 12ET to discuss why we are 100% invested in Canada and what multi-bagger opportunities we see. Tune in! https://t.co/78ACScPcv2


Summary: Long Canadian E&P equities: rising US investor interest, 20%+ FCF yields, big re-rate potential despite oil +29% YTD vs stocks -5%-35%.

Heading to the annual Peters & Co Fall energy conference to discuss the need for meaningful share buybacks with many corporates over the next 2 days. Oil +29% YTD yet oil stocks -5%-35% should make for some productive discussions. Progress being made! #OOTT https://t.co/sr85p3xrRA

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Chatter from the hallways: several E&P’s saying interest from US accounts has perked up in recent weeks. “Meeting with people that haven’t wanted to see us in years.” Big re-rate potential. Supports 100% Canadian positioning. 20%+ FCF yields at spot WTI #OOTT


Summary: Bullish on smaller energy/oil stocks; expects 2x+ gains over next year even at ~$40 WTI, with optionality to $50-60 oil in 2021.

This might surprise some...but even at the unsustainably low  WTI strip of ~$40 some oil stocks are still bargains = free optionality to $50-$60 in 2021. The current level of gloom and doom is not justified and many smaller energy stocks can more than double in the next year. https://t.co/Dy0YgAkO6D


Summary: Bullish oil: inventories in deficit, demand recovered, shale discipline intact, underinvestment persists, yet stocks price only ~$60 WTI — upside from here.

With oil below $80WTI on SPR/COVID uptick, here is what really matters: global inventories are now at a deficit to '17-'19 avg (!), demand is back to pre-COVID levels, US shale discipline is the new normal, global investment still insufficient, and stocks are discounting ~$60WTI. https://t.co/hg7YqZ372g


Summary: Oil stocks priced for $50 WTI while trading above $100; Q2 FCF + buybacks + dividends to be spectacular — long oil equities.

Some days it feels like shouting into a hurricane, but truly every day above $100WTI is a win. Stocks are discounting $50WTI and every day FCF is building. Q2 results IMO to be spectacular with ongoing share buybacks and dividend increases. The day-to-day will be what it will be. https://t.co/SmmPNpYGnW


Summary: Bullish Canadian midcap oil producers on >10% FCF yields, 8%+ dividends, and strong balance sheets as macro sentiment improves and US shale deflates.

Canadian midcap oil producers: BTE, WCP, ATH

When sentiment improves on the global macro and the air continues to deflate from US shale co's, will investors realize how extremely attractive Canadian midcap oil producers are? FCF yields > 10%, 8%+ dividend yields, ~27% decline rates, and strong balance sheets #OOTT https://t.co/pkrV8llB2z


Summary: Bullish FANG: lauds $2B buyback (~13% of shares) as exemplary capital return vs Canadian energy peers.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Note to Canadian energy CEOs: this is how it's done and this is your competition for investor funds flow!!! FANG ($15BN market cap) announcing a $2BN share buyback = ~13% of shares outstanding. https://t.co/CLgGoCstJG


Summary: Bullish fossil fuel sector: ESG-driven capex shortage + growing hydrocarbon demand will trigger a supply crisis over coming decades.

@Galactic_George @DomFlanaganC300 @chigrl @AnitaSharma ESG forces will create (are creating) the next supply crisis given lack of capital to finance long-lead material projects in a world where hydrocarbon usage will continue to grow for decade/s. Eco-alarmists...be careful what you wish for!

@DomFlanaganC300 @chigrl This is what I'm talking about @ericnuttall & @AnitaSharma  when I say that climate change sentiment is being underestimated as a drag on fossil fuel energy share prices.


Summary: Bullish energy stocks: market pricing mid-$50s oil while FCF at $70 WTI supports 4.4-year privatization; compelling value.

I am a buyer of uncertainty, as that is what gives opportunity for the patient. With energy stocks discounting an oil price in the mid $50's and able to privatize in 4.4 years with free cash flow at $70WTI, don't buy bottoms, buy value.


Summary: Bullish energy sector; expects relief rally once tax-loss selling concludes.

Energy market happen to be tanking? Count on me being pre-scheduled for BNN that day. Here is a 7 minute overview of what happened in '18 and our outlook for 2019 and beyond. Relief rally coming soon once EPIC tax loss selling ends. @BNNBloomberg https://t.co/Zc3F6WUm5s


Summary: Bullish on US energy sector: CVX/APC deal + OXY/XOM Permian bids could break 4 years of bearish sentiment; APC is M&A target with 40% premium.

Let the M&A wave begin! Chevron buying Anadarko! If investors won’t act as the curative to the highest level of sector apathy (in history?) that has led to the lowest oil company valuations that I’ve ever seen in my career, then corporates will. #OOTT

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One never knew what the catalyst would be to break 4 years of bearish energy sector sentiment. I think Chevron/Anadarko 40% premium takeover could be it. That and $65WTI... #OOTT

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It just got even better...CNBC reporting that OXY also bid for APC.  HUGE. OXY and XOM to enter into the ring for Permian assets?


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: record oil inventory deficit + recession fears already priced in at $55 WTI discount creates buying opportunity.

Updated @kpler data = new record global oil inventory deficit to normal levels. F.E.A.R.ful of a recession??? @EnergyAspects is already modelling a US/European recession in '23 and inventories STILL fall further. With CDN energy stocks discounting $55WTI, fear = opportunity??? https://t.co/zIU76djSlj


Summary: Bullish on oil E&P equities at generational low valuations; FCF and dividend yield compelling even at lower oil prices.

Reminder: you need not believe in higher oil prices to get excited about generational low valuations. At an oil price $3 lower than 2022 strip the average company can privatize and become debt free with just over 5 years of free cashflow or pay a 27% dividend. https://t.co/QpXfOpcc3U


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil and gas equities; expects sector re-rating as energy ignorance is corrected.

Yes, there is a strong business case for Canadian LNG. Read how we can both lower global emissions and rain an abundance of royalties and taxes down upon all Canadians in my 26th column for the @financialpost. https://t.co/hp9gdazDhp

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I'm thankful to the @financialpost for offering a platform that allows much needed advocacy for the Canadian oil and gas sector. I'm optimistic that combatting energy ignorance will eventually lead to a meaningful re-rating in energy stock valuations. https://t.co/0i1X9EaLsK


Summary: Bullish energy equities: $60 oil floor creating 10-15%+ FCF yields that are unsustainably cheap and won't persist.

The biggest mistake an energy investor can make today is to look at where a stock has come from rather than where it might be going. $60 floor is feeling increasingly likely = 10% FCF yields for large caps and 15%+ for midcaps. That will not last. #OOTT https://t.co/u9pxFEtEh3


Summary: Bullish Canadian heavy oil producers: WCS:WTI differentials narrowing to ~$17.50 in 2020 = FCF machines on crude-by-rail hitting record volumes.

Spotted along the 401 heading to Ottawa yesterday. Crude-by-rail to hit record 550,000 bbl/d this month. Looking for ~$17.50 WCS:WTI differentials (or lower) in 2020 which = FCF machines for CDN heavy oil producers #OOTT https://t.co/OZYe1ig0dR


Summary: Bullish Canada energy equities and oil demand long-term; peak-oil thesis is flawed, developing-world growth ensures rising hydrocarbon consumption through 2050.

The road ahead: here is a new 25 minute presentation in which I go through why forecasts of imminent peak oil demand are flawed, why 100% renewables are not the future, and why Canada is the place to be for energy investors in 2021!  https://t.co/3uGhgJ3Om5 https://t.co/WsCZLyjMv5

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How can oil demand be imminently peaking when the global population is set to rise by 26% by 2050 largely in countries with rising living standards (ie. rising energy consumption) whom cannot afford "energy poverty" from significantly increasing renewables into their power mix? https://t.co/KlajcsX31L

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It's easy to see the world through the eyes of a North American/European where energy wokeness dominates, yet in countries that are gaining economic relevance and still use dung as an energy source...are Tesla and hydrogen a realistic near-term threat to their oil demand growth? https://t.co/QV4Wzs6l9m

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The world will grow by 2BN (26%) people by 2050. While woke governments will aggressively push "energy transition" the reality is this is not broadly appealing in developing countries. The "ugly" truth??? Demand for ALL forms of energy will grow for many years to come. https://t.co/14e4kfYSlZ


Summary: Bullish oil and energy stocks into 2023; views recent oil selloff as a buying opportunity.

Join me today at 12pmET on @marketcall with @AndrewBellBNN. I'll be discussing why I think the recent oil selloff is an early Christmas gift to investors, and my outlook for energy stocks heading into 2023. https://t.co/Rud5HQdvgy


Summary: Even at $80-85 WTI downside, energy stocks at 2.8x EV/CF with 25% FCF yields are deeply attractive; bullish energy equities.

Let's rip off the Band-Aid. Peace in Ukraine+ Iran deal + SPR release (again) = $80-$85WTI temporarily??? At $80WTI energy stocks are trading at 2.8x EV/CF, and investors get on average 10 years of 25% free cashflow yields for free! That's my downside scenario.


Summary: Bullish energy stocks with long-dated oil resources as market re-rates sector upward on multi-decade consumption outlook.

Energy ignorance is at the root of the severe trading multiple contraction experienced by energy stocks over the past several years. As we realize that oil consumption will continue for many decades, the most benefited are those with long dated resource.  https://t.co/6oFkHKZqel https://t.co/X4B1PQvoUU


Summary: Energy stocks are deeply mispriced to the upside; FCF yields at $50 WTI support a strong bullish case.

The 2021 WTI strip is now $49/bbl (!) so the FCF yields at $50 that I've been showing for 6+ months are no longer quite so unbelievable. There is no better way to show just how mispriced energy stocks are than this: https://t.co/MiDdsAnfWY


Summary: Fully bullish on energy sector into year-end: OPEC+ cleared, vaccine approvals imminent, stocks -50% YTD at 10%+ FCF yields.

Today's OPEC+ meeting was the final hurdle for institutional generalist investors to clear before adding energy sector exposure and going at least market weight. Many stocks still -50%YTD + line of sight to a post-COVID world = year-end rally potential. https://t.co/yWO1NhknTr

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We've avoided a potential OPEC faceplant, have imminent US vaccine approvals, have improving demand stats in Europe, China, and Japan, and have energy stocks -50+% YTD and trading at 10%+ free cash flow yields. If you're not long soon...you never will be. My cash is deployed! https://t.co/hZqioR3Nbu


Summary: Calls for a major energy bull market in 2021; urges getting long soon.

I respect Rafi as a formidable competitor. Our styles may differ but we both walk the lonely path as the 2 remaining energy fund PM's left in the country. This interview of his is worth watching. Major bull market in 2021...get long soon. https://t.co/8GVo9b1Puy


Summary: Bullish oil & gas sector on 13% return-of-capital potential at $70 WTI and re-rate from valuations at 1/3 of historic levels.

Meaningful dividends and share buybacks...the curative in my opinion for lingering investor apathy. $70WTI = 13% "return of capital" potential for the sector using only 50% of FCF in '22. Big re-rate potential from valuations at 1/3 of historic levels. "Great quarter guys!" https://t.co/RI5doQEd3G


Summary: Shares analyst view that the sector can double from current levels; implicitly endorsing the bullish call.

Ollenberger: "we see the sector offering a double or more from these levels." Still feel late to the party???
https://t.co/qe7SAdwcIj


Energy stocks have completely diverged from reality. The 'walking dead' are trading down as much as heavily hedged companies with manageable debt levels

Summary: Bullish on hedged, solvent energy producers being mispriced alongside 'walking dead'; expects they survive and recover.

1) Energy stocks have completely diverged from reality. The "walking dead" are trading down as much as heavily hedged companies with manageable debt levels. I'm getting many panicky emails a day asking "will XYZ survive the next 6 months??" given 20% a day price declines... https://t.co/a8y1TMQQJe

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2) XYZ is a $500MM light oil producer down 83% YTD. They have a combo of swaps/ 3 way hedges that protect CF down to about $28WTI and has $2BN of undrawn bank lines. Great example of a stock I believe will "survive" the ongoing storm and make it through to the other side https://t.co/aq4mn6m76C

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3) ABC is a $68MM liquids rich Montney producer down 90% YTD. They have ~58% of their liquids hedged and even at $30WTI will exit only 71% drawn on their lines yet is being priced for near-term bankruptcy! https://t.co/jlrmicVGae


Summary: Bullish oil and Canadian oil equities on missile-attack escalation; political risk premium now materializing, months-long fix to critical infrastructure.

I’ve talked for months about “time for a political risk premium?” when the 1st drones struck. If this was in fact a missile attack (vs. drones) tonight’s price action is just the beginning...oil will head much higher. Get long CDN oil co’s (or a certain energy mutual fund) #OOTT

Thx @the_Jeff_Jones f/ alerting to breaking news reported by @JavierBlas. US govt releases satellite pics showing direct hits on critical spheroids use to treat the crude. We think this is a mths fix, not days/weeks.  Oil going up even higher. #OOTT https://t.co/Ds7XPLAauV


Summary: Strongly bullish on small-cap oil stocks; cites deep value (2.1x EV/CF, 20% FCF yield at $60 oil, debt-free next year, privatization potential).

How can you NOT be excited about the opportunity in oil stocks?!? Just off the phone with the CEO of a small cap oilco: 20 years of quality inventory trading at 2.1x EV/'22CF + 20% FCF yield at $60. They could privatize 4x before inventory exhaustion. Oh and debt free next year! https://t.co/Nk3MHZbyKZ


Summary: Adding to core energy equity positions; sell-off driven by margin calls/de-grossing unrelated to oil fundamentals, expects recovery.

Oil nearly flat on the week yet many energy stocks down 10%+. Sell-off due to meme stock implosion -> margin calls ->liquidity needs and hedge fund de-grossing...nothing to do with oil fundamentals IMO. We've been using the weakness to add to core names. This too shall pass!


How mispriced are Canadian energy stocks despite strong year-to-date gains? The average company listed could privatize themselves THREE TIMES OVER at $70WTI before exhausting their drilling inventory.

Summary: Canadian energy stocks remain deeply mispriced at current WTI strip; drilling inventory supports massive further upside.

How mispriced are Canadian energy stocks despite strong year-to-date gains? The average company listed could privatize themselves THREE TIMES OVER  at $70WTI ($4 below the current 2022 strip) before exhausting their drilling inventory. 🚀 https://t.co/QtFi8PRFbt


Summary: Bullish CVE: new crude-by-rail deals signal tighter WCS market in 2019+; CVE is the first of more announcements to come.

CN CEO confirming publicly that more crude-by-rails deals have been signed since January that have not yet been publicly announced by their customers = tighter WCS market than believed in 2019+. CVE the first, not the last. #OOTT #crude


Summary: Bullish energy sector on 15%+ real FCF yields; urging rotation from speculative marijuana names into energy.

@amberkanwar Bring all that speculative money back to the energy sector! Actual (versus fantasized) free cash flow yields of 15%+ await you!

Scotia warns estimates for marijuana companies way too high, expects them to fall "sharply lower" on earnings day #NotableCall https://t.co/C7iX6ZCsvU


Summary: Bullish energy sector as a generational opportunity: debt-free, high FCF yield of 25%, 50-100% cash return, big re-rate potential.

How can I still view energy stocks as a "generational opportunity"??? Imagine a sector largely debt free in 2023, committed to low-to-no-growth, and codifying the return of 50%-100% of free cashflow back to investors with an average FCF yield of 25%. Big re-rate potential! https://t.co/XzkQeKmvAl


Multibagger potential from here. The dividend/share buyback potential for many is enormous.

Summary: Bullish energy stocks on post-COVID reopening thesis; sees enormous dividend/buyback potential and multibagger upside.

Now with at least 1 successful vaccine can the market begin to believe in a post-COVID world for energy stocks??? The dividend/share buyback potential for many is enormous. Multibagger potential from here. https://t.co/NKkypH5yKh


Summary: Long energy stocks over coming months: shale growth over, offshore flat, OPEC capacity exhausted by '22, demand up 10+ years.

I'm buying energy stocks for a post-COVID world in the coming months, in which US shale hyper growth is over, global offshore production is flat lining, OPEC spare capacity is exhausted by early '22, and demand grows for 10+ more years. Everything else is short-term noise. https://t.co/zWUz93Aq7I


Summary: Canadian heavy oil stocks MEG, ATH, BTE, CVE are underpriced given the Venezuelan crude sanction boosting demand for Canadian heavy crude.

And so it begins...when will the CDN heavy oil stocks (MEG, ATH, BTE, CVE) start to reflect this??? The market is not appreciating the significance of last night's announcement. #OOTT

U.S. refiners including Valero bought Canadian heavy crude Monday after the U.S. imposed a de facto sanction on imports of crude oil from Venezuela

BBG #OOTT


Energy stocks trading at less than 3X EV/CF and 20%+ free cashflow yields. Companies announcing buybacks and dividend increases... Stocks rocking. FOMO??

Summary: Bullish on energy stocks: cheap valuations, strong FCF yields, buybacks, dividends, and demand recovery all point higher.

When will generalists wake up??? WTI at $66. Energy stocks trading at less than 3X EV/CF and 20%+ free cashflow yields. Companies announcing buybacks and dividend increases. Vaccines rolling out. Demand normalizing. Discipline holding. Stocks rocking. FOMO?? https://t.co/ycftbVjXHj


Summary: Generalist investor rotation into energy sector is just beginning; strongly bullish on energy.

A client asked me yesterday what inning are we in of generalists coming back to the energy sector? My answer: the players have warmed up and are only now just taking to the field...the game hasn't even started yet. https://t.co/UUAeqFB7vZ


Summary: Still bullish energy stocks despite recent 10% move; YTD performance justifies entering now.

Public service announcement: if you are sitting there staring at energy stocks up another 10% today, mad that you never added/bought in during the epic selloff due to the  paralyzing fear of the (many) doomsayers...it isn't too late.  Focus on the YTD and NOT the MTD column! https://t.co/8c6XgbfFL1


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector on expected Conservative election win removing anti-sector policy headwinds; currently near all-time low valuations.

I'm doing my best to keep my tweets a-political but fair to say that a Conservative win next month would be materially positive for the CDN energy sector (which still trades near all-time low valuations partially due to the Liberal's constant attacking of the sector) #OOTT

Those were the days ... https://t.co/1CthTnHI6b


Summary: Bullish energy sector on compelling valuation — 34% FCF yield and 2.6x EV/CF signal it's time for generalist investors to return.

Is it just me, or are more guests on @marketcall highlighting the compelling opportunities in the energy sector recently? Could this be the beginning of the return of the generalist investor? With the avg. energy stock trading at a 34% FCF yield and at 2.6x EV/CF it's about time! https://t.co/9zyjzrmUlY


Summary: Bullish on Canadian heavy oil producers: WCS diff normalizes via curtailment adjustments, Maya well bid on Venezuela supply collapse.

@TSXcapital @markets Not likely. Curtailments will be adjusted targeting $17.50-$20/diff to draw down storage. Sub $10 is only temporary (I think). But Maya to remain well bid given VZ implosion. Solid outlook for CDN heavy producers.

@ericnuttall @markets Do you see a chance of WCS trading at a premium to WTI at any point?


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil stocks into year-end on inventory normalization, mobility data, and upcoming return-of-capital announcements.

Still no sign of slowing mobility data impacting global inventory normalization. With Canadian oil stocks discounting ~$52WTI and many to potentially announce meaningful return of capital initiatives this Fall I'm still expecting a strong finish to the year for the sector. https://t.co/DCiYv513yo


we believe that we are in an era of sustainably 'high' oil prices, and despite inevitable volatility that oil is in a multi-year bull market

Summary: Multi-year oil bull market on inventory deficits, Russia supply loss, thin OPEC spare capacity; energy stocks a generational opportunity.

Back from a week on the beach with the kids and time for an oil macro update. Where do things stand now and where are we headed? First, our compass...global oil inventories continue to plummet and the "gap to normal levels" continues to widen = bullish. https://t.co/A04Y13vjJy

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Last week the IEA released January OECD stocks: a massive counter seasonal drop with levels now at a 302MM Bbl deficit to the '15-'19 average and more importantly...a 51MM deficit to the Jan '10-'14 average...the time when oil last averaged $96WTI. https://t.co/mrRMnBBvCs

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Yet, the bombshells the IEA dropped were their estimate for potential lost Russian volumes...a staggering 3MM Bbl/d in April and an admission that OPEC spare capacity is extremely thin. An Iranian nuke deal + Venezuelan concessions are a drop in the bucket vs. 3MM Bbl/d. https://t.co/Liix0G8sND

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So how to replace 3MM Bbl/d in a market that is already short? Iran = 0.7MM Bbl/d and VZ maybe 0.2 = 0.9. US shale to the rescue? Not likely.  Tier 1 rigs / labour / tubular shortages + DUC exhaustion + variable dividends + Wall street angst = maybe 1MM Bbl/d in '22 exit-to-exit? https://t.co/7iJC8JmQ0s

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What about OPEC? Using Bloomberg February data, 4 of the 7 largest producers were already UNDERPRODUCING their quota and we believe OPEC will fully exhaust its spare capacity by the end of 2022 given a potential demand surge. https://t.co/uwqC1WwJEq

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Net/net, we believe that we are in an era of sustainably "high" oil prices, and despite inevitable volatility that oil is in a multi-year bull market. Energy stocks today, in our opinion, still represent a generational opportunity. https://t.co/fEAAMtQCnk


Energy stocks today, in our opinion, still represent a generational opportunity


Summary: Calling 5%+ rally tomorrow in Canadian energy stocks, with a larger move expected in October.

5%+ rally tomorrow for Canadian energy stocks...warm up for a much bigger move in October! #OOTT


energy stocks remain severely mispriced. Own energy stocks for a 2H'21 post-COVID world = demand normalizing while supply growth remains challenged

Summary: Long energy stocks into 2H21: severely mispriced after 10% correction, demand normalization + constrained supply growth post-COVID.

Monday morning check-in: after the 10% stock correction and WTI finding support ~$60WTI energy stocks remain severely mispriced. Temporary COVID setbacks = short-term noise. Own energy stocks for a 2H'21 post-COVID world = demand normalizing while supply growth remains challenged https://t.co/OKC6meYAuk


Summary: Bullish on energy stocks for months and years ahead based on 1H/22 review.

Why are we bullish on energy stocks? Here's a 13 minute recording in which I review the 1H/22 and speak to what I think lays ahead for energy investors in the months and years to come.
https://t.co/2nvYCb9e7F https://t.co/0Zp4rnn6lD


Summary: Long oil equities: average fund holding 25% below 52-wk high despite WTI at 1-yr high; sees 33-100%+ upside on multiple re-rate + $60+ oil in 2H21.

WTI is making a 1 year high yet my average Fund holding is still -25% from their 52 week high = 33% upside from multiple rerate + many calling for $60 (or higher) in 2H'21 = 100%+ upside for many stocks with 42% average free cashflow yields. What more do I have to say??? https://t.co/swZ1s6QuA3


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector: 20%+ FCF yields vs cannabis negative EBITDA; expects capital rotation back from pot stocks.

Significant outflows from the energy sector found their way into pot stocks over the past few years. Time for them to return? 20%+ FCF yields and free optionality versus negative EBITDA...

"Fun" fact: Canopy's market cap at its peak was about C$24 billion. Now, the 25 largest Canadian pot companies are worth about C$24 billion combined.


Summary: Bullish Canadian natural gas on record low inventories, falling production, improving egress, LNG optionality, Montney rock quality, and solar-minimum demand.

UNG is closest tradable nat gas proxy; AECO not directly tradable

Getting interested in CDN natural gas for the first time in many years: record low inventories, falling production, improving egress, longer term LNG optionality, top tier rock (Montney), and potential for seasonally strong demand due to solar minimum #OOTT https://t.co/57OitH8L8Z


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy midcap sector on strong FCF, 9% dividend yields resilient to $50 WTI, and discounts to PDP reserve value.

CDN midcaps (which have zero institutional ownership) continuing to show their strong FCF capabilities = best opportunity in Canada. 9% dividend yields supported down to $50WTI and discounts to PDP reserve value...what's not to love?Here is one that reported this morning: #OOTT https://t.co/3q6ElUj7nq


Summary: Long Canadian oil stocks: trading at discount to liquidation value with free upside optionality from TMX approval; pessimism overdone.

I’m on BNN tomorrow ~9:30am to discuss TMX approval. Despite today being a clear win there remains so much pessimism! My message: don’t let the fear of being disappointed (again..) blind you from seeing when things have materially improved. Identifying the inflection point is key

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The market is drowning in pessimism yet CDN oil stocks are already being valued using worst case scenarios. When names are at a discount to liquidation value am I not getting free optionality on TMX (or other) initiatives actually being built??? #OOTT https://t.co/7WefGmAnSV https://t.co/owppaqOeOy


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil sands equities: foreign capital returning on extreme valuation lows + massive FCF generation as US shale decelerates.

Canadian oil sands basket: CNQ, CVE, ATH

Foreign investors are coming back to Canada, recognizing the tremendous amounts of FCF being generated from companies with stock prices at all-time low valuations. US shale growth deceleration (and call on OPEC increasing) to accelerate this trend #OOTT

Why this oil sands bull likes the lack of new pipeline capacity https://t.co/05MR8xjkja @AmberKanwar @JonErlichman https://t.co/RZt7687dvB


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy equities: at ~$80 WTI, average name can buy back 28% of shares in one year of FCF.

The 2022 WTI strip is now $79.75.  At $80WTI, the average Canadian energy company I follow could buy back 28% of their shares outstanding with 1 year of free cashflow. 🚀 https://t.co/j048BsB1Ux


Summary: Bullish energy stocks and WTI crude: energy equities still cheap, run just beginning, structural thesis points to $80+ oil.

You need not believe in the structural multi-year oil bull market thesis (that will ultimately lead to $80+WTI) but rather merely in the price you already see on your screen...the run in energy stocks has only just begun and valuations remain shockingly cheap. https://t.co/NyzSv8J9K7


Energy stocks are trading at 20 year low valuations despite growing oil macro tailwinds and massively improving prospects for investors to finally get paid via meaningful dividends and equity valuation re-rating from share buybacks

Summary: Bullish energy sector on 20-year-low valuations, oil macro tailwinds, rising dividends, and buyback-driven re-rating.

Energy stocks are trading at 20 year low valuations (Peters & Co) despite growing oil macro tailwinds and massively improving prospects for investors to finally get paid via meaningful dividends and equity valuation re-rating (from 1/4 of the 20 year average!) from share buybacks https://t.co/GGkAdE8wTu


Summary: Bullish on Canadian heavy oil producers: light/heavy oil imbalance + Venezuelan sanctions set to become a meaningful multi-year theme from 2019 onward.

Beyond just the Venezuelan sanctions in the near term the trend of too much light, not enough heavy is likely to develop into a meaningful theme in 2019+ and is hugely significant for CDN heavy oil producers   https://t.co/CqusDYv3KG via @nationalpost


Summary: Long Canadian energy stocks: generational opportunity at <50% of historical multiples with 20%+ FCF yields.

Canadian energy stocks represent a generational opportunity trading at less than half of historical multiples and 20%+ free cash flow yields. https://t.co/jJGKNUGkZe


Summary: Bullish energy stocks: 20-year valuation lows + positive macro + rising capital returns signal upside.

IEA: HUGE OECD stock draw in July of  34MM Bbls (vs. 4MM build expected) and compares to the '15-'19 average build of 23MM Bbls.  Energy stock valuations at 20 year lows + positive macro backdrop + increasing return of capital announcements = 🚀 https://t.co/NrzXBxc1RH


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector on potential Trudeau exit; stocks at 10%+ FCF yields and PDP discounts with dramatic upside potential.

"Sunny ways my friends, sunny ways."  More cracks forming.  If Trudeau falls there is a hope of funds flow coming back to the CDN energy sector.  With stocks trading at 10+% FCF yields and discounts to PDP reserve value forgive me for thinking there could be some dramatic upside.

“I believe real leadership is about listening, learning &  compassion...central to my leadership is fostering an environment where my Ministers, caucus & staff feel comfortable coming to me when they have concerns” I did come to you recently. Twice. Remember your reactions?


Summary: Bullish energy stocks despite this week's sharp selloff; thesis intact with compelling upside remaining.

With energy stocks falling sharply this week, is the oil party now over??? Here is an 8 minute video that I recorded this afternoon to review our thesis and explain why energy stocks still offer compelling upside.
https://t.co/VItlAkr1Eq https://t.co/edbkmw01Zq


Summary: Bullish airlines: domestic bookings recovering signals structural supply-driven bull market post-COVID.

American Airlines -> domestic bookings now back to 90% of pre-COVID levels. Jet fuel = the weakest end market and was to be the last to recover. What does this tell us? COVID's lasting impact will not be on demand but on supply = structural bull market. https://t.co/9hqRQZYp0m https://t.co/UA15NbCnGa


Summary: Bullish WTI to $70+/bbl on tight physical market; energy stocks to reach 40%+ FCF yields.

Many are describing the PHYSICAL oil market as the tightest in 15 years while the FINANCIAL market for oil is apathetic and still traumatized from Q4/18's plunge...we see a potential for $70+/bbl WTI in the coming months..and many energy stocks therefore at 40%+ FCF yields #OOTT

As pressures pile onto crude markets, @energyaspects @ea_amrita considers what this means for #opec and financial markets https://t.co/BD1vleSitf #OOTD #crude #Oil


Summary: Bullish oil and oil stocks: outlook more positive than consensus, stocks can rise 2x-4x over the next year.

Feeling down about the ongoing lockdown and poorly performing oil stocks this month?  I'll be on @marketcall today at 12ET to discuss why the outlook for oil is much more positive than consensus and why oil stocks can go up 2x-4x over the next year. New backdrop by my kids #OOTT https://t.co/jfTsKFfZJl

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Today was all about bullish oil (and natural gas) macro...thank you to everyone who called in with questions...it was nice to be on during an increasingly frequent "up" day for energy stocks. #OOTT https://t.co/f6osf7q57v https://t.co/UIHzkut2En


Summary: Author endorses RBC top energy trader's reinvigorated bullish view on energy sector.

When Mastro, Canada's #1 energy trader, at RBC says his "energy bullishness has been reinvigorated" I pay attention! https://t.co/wtg9yQKdHI


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: priced for <$60 WTI while generating epic FCF at $90+; sell-off is modest and temporary.

With Canadian energy stocks discounting <$60WTI + epic levels of free cashflow being generated, truly every day above $90WTI is a spectacular day. Important to retain perspective on a modest, temporary sell-off.


Summary: Bullish Canadian heavy oil producers MEG/ATH/CVE/BTE on potential WCS differential tightening/premium driven by IMO2020, OPEC heavy cuts, and VZ supply risks.

Could we be heading into a "perfect storm" for WCS differentials? IMO2020 increasing marine gasoil demand by 2MM Bbl/d while US shale lightens global crude stream, gasoline inv. swell,OPEC cuts are predominately heavy, and now VZ potential flow restrictions to US GOM? #OOTT

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Question of the day: could WCS differentials trade at a premium to WTI in 2019? We had all assumed <$10/bbl WCS spot was financially driven by short covering...could it have actual fundamental backing?

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The implication for Canadian heavy oil producers (MEG, ATH, CVE, BTE) would be profound with cash flow increasing for some by 35% with every $5/bbl change in WCS differentials.


Summary: Bullish on natural gas companies: 27-year LNG deal signals long-term hydrocarbon demand the market undervalues, with names trading at 4-5x FCF.

China signs a 27 YEAR LONG LNG contract with Qatar worth $60BN. What do they know about long-term hydrocarbon demand that the stock market does not, with many natural gas companies able to privatize with just 4-5 years of free cashflow???
https://t.co/jEcTA7sEWS


Summary: Bullish travel demand recovery and jet fuel price rebound into late 2022, citing Disney World booking difficulty as evidence.

US Global Jets ETF covers travel/airlines sector

Anyone doubting the coming surge in travel demand (and recovery in jet fuel) should try to book a family trip to Disneyworld for December '22... https://t.co/AbhXD72xDY


Summary: Bullish energy stocks: oversold on recession fears, pricing in $55-65/bbl oil while inventories continue to draw to historically low levels.

Nothing like waking up to oil down $5/bbl on literally nothing...just recession f.e.a.r. Even in a recession, @EnergyAspects forecasts continued inventory draws to historically low levels. Energy stocks? They are discounting $55-$65/bbl and trade at 30%+ free cashflow yields. https://t.co/ZQuOcLQBXC


Summary: Bullish WTI above $70 and sees generational opportunity in energy stocks; steering fund through volatility.

Every day above $70WTI is a great day!!! Hear why today at 2pm ET, where I'll go through my views of the generation opportunity (still) in energy stocks and how I'm steering the Ninepoint Energy Fund through recent volatility. https://t.co/T5zz81KgBx https://t.co/9PgReXG3Tn

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Thank you to the more than 850 people who tuned in live to listen to the Ninepoint Energy Fund webinar update "Every day above $70WTI is a good day." In case you missed it, here is a replay: https://t.co/T5zz81KgBx


Summary: Rotate out of Permian into Canadian oilsands; oilsands long-dated reserves offer decades of free cash flow at a discount due to energy ignorance.

This is the year I believe we see energy investors sell the Permian to buy the Canadian oilsands. To me, the single best opportunity on the planet is in buying long-dated reserves for which, due to energy ignorance, you can get decades worth of free cashflow for free.


Awash in cash, long on inventory...Buybacks and dividends. Q1 results should mark the beginning of the 'golden era of FCF'

Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector: debt-free by mid-2023, excess cash to fuel buybacks and dividends entering a golden FCF era.

At the current oil price the CDN energy sector is debt free by mid-2023. Think about that! Awash in cash, long on inventory, it will literally have a cash problem...too much of it. What do do? Buybacks and dividends. Q1 results should mark the beginning of the "golden era of FCF"


Valuations are the lowest in history! ... walls of free cash flow that are being generated by industry ... Lowest valuations in history

Summary: Strongly bullish Canadian energy sector: Q2 FCF yields of 19-27% of market cap with historically low valuations.

The free cash flow generating capabilities of CDN energy companies are finally being revealed with Q2 reporting. A major Fund holding just reported FCF in the first 6 months equal to 19% of their market cap with 2 more Q's to go. Valuations are the lowest in history!  #OOTT https://t.co/mlwWzUbaof

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This morning another top Fund holding confirms the walls of free cash flow that are being generated by industry...$300MM of FCF on a $1.1BN market cap oil co = 27% FCF yield (with 4 years of PDP reserves = ability to privatize from FCF). Lowest valuations in history #OOTT https://t.co/ldR8fkA7VP


Massively significant to multiples... what happens as people realize demand growth likely for 10+ years at which point only slow decline IMO?

Summary: Bullish energy/oil & gas sector: multiple compression from stranded-asset fears will reverse as market recognizes 10+ years of demand growth ahead.

Energy affordability/reliability has been widely taken for granted...until now. Perhaps the world is at an inflection point,about to realize the true challenges of decarbonization and the role that oil and gas will play for decades to come IMO.  Massively significant to multiples https://t.co/gjhZ6SKjjx

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What has been the biggest factor in energy share price implosions? Not the oil price: trading multiple compression. Energy ignorance has led to "stranded asset risk" discount...what happens as people realize demand growth likely for 10+ years at which point only slow decline IMO?


Summary: Multi-year bull case for oil and energy equities on persistent demand, end of US shale hypergrowth, exhausted OPEC spare capacity, and underinvestment.

Oil is in a multi-year bull market and energy stocks represent a generational opportunity amidst the fog of energy ignorance. Hear why in this 45 minute webcast recorded earlier today: https://t.co/HR4OoDaUxX https://t.co/YQi3xphizm

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The makings of a multi-year oil bull market: persistent oil demand growth for at least another decade, the end of US shale hyper growth, the exhaustion of OPEC spare capacity, and flat/declining global offshore production due to 7+ years of insufficient investment. https://t.co/7QBWnBPcg5


Summary: Bullish energy sector on vaccine-driven return of flying/driving; sees multibagger re-rating in 2021 from stocks down 60-80% YTD.

Energy has by far been the most negatively affected sector from COVID19. With the return of flying and driving now in sight I'm hopeful for an imminent re-rating in energy stocks...many down 60-80% YTD. Multibagger potential from here in 2021.

Breaking News: Pfizer said early data showed its vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in preventing Covid-19, pushing the company to a lead in the vaccine race. https://t.co/HThqNKKPps


Summary: Bullish energy sector: underweighted generalists will rush back in, finding insufficient liquidity and driving prices sharply higher.

Like an elephant through a key hole...the day is not far away when generalists come storming back to the energy sector given ongoing underperformance from chronic sector underweighting...only to find a lack of sufficient liquidity at current prices. That is when the fun begins! https://t.co/ObcozMzeFB


Summary: Bullish COP on Montney play with $30/bbl supply cost, cheap PDP valuation, and 9.5% sustainable yield; market is indifferent.

How inefficient is the energy market? Conoco highlights their Montney play: 230 sections w/ $30/bbl supply costs. Stock XYX in Canada, trading at 1.2x of PDP (with no bookings for offsetting 300 sections of similar quality) and 4x EV/CF yields sustainable 9.5%. Care factor? Zero. https://t.co/ruADOwdbS4


Summary: Bullish energy stocks and oil into 2020: demand growth restored, offshore peaking, US shale decelerating, valuations at record lows.

XLE as global energy stocks proxy (context is predominantly US/Canada)

Oil demand growth improvement was the missing piece of my oil rally recipe. Now we have it. Bull market for energy stocks to begin sometime in 2020. 1MM bbl/d of demand growth + offshore peaking + US shale decelerating with record low energy stock valuations #OOTT

Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by 640 kb/d y-o-y in 3Q19, the biggest contributor to global growth.

IEA #oott


Summary: Energy stocks are profoundly mispriced to the downside after the oil selloff; peak uncertainty = peak opportunity.

I'm excited to be on @marketcall this Friday at 12ET to get the chance to put the recent sell off in oil into perspective and explain in detail just how profoundly mispriced energy stocks now are IMO. Peak uncertainty = peak opportunity for the patient. See you Friday! https://t.co/6bAhEom4FA


Summary: Bullish energy stocks; multi-year bull market thesis, calling it a generational opportunity.

Join me tomorrow at 11am ET for @TheEnergyRT 's free virtual event.  I'll be discussing the generational opportunity in energy stocks and why we're in a multi-year bull market.  I've even been called "too pessimistic" by another panelist so should be fun! https://t.co/UchNVxXf2P https://t.co/obzNDnqHUz


Summary: 100% invested in Canadian E&Ps as FCF leaders; CPG specifically highlighted with updated assumptions; Canada to stand out on free cash flow theme in 2021.

Production growth is passe...in the post-COVID world to attract investor attention E&P's will need to maximize free cash flow and this is where Canadian E&P's really shine (and why we are 100% invested in Canada). FCF = antidote for investor apathy via buybacks and dividends. https://t.co/Z5LYE7HU49

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Updated chart reflecting some changes to CPG assumptions (lower capex now for 2021). "Free cash flow generation and how to allocate it" to be the #1 theme in 2021= Canada to stand out from the rest. https://t.co/uKq9RhcHWm


Summary: Implicitly bullish on oil stocks: trading at 52-week/all-time lows with 15%+ FCF yields despite $55 oil — framing as a value opportunity.

I'm working on my next major investor write-up...with oil stocks getting hammered (again) today and many making 52 week/all time lows despite oil at $55 and FCF yields at 15%+ I thought a sneak peak might be of interest: https://t.co/GDJ8MOfkJD


Summary: Bullish on E&P sector multiple expansion as world abandons green energy and oil demand persists.

Perhaps oil usage isn’t going the way of the buggy whip after all? = multiple expansion for E&P’s? Lawrence Solomon: Trudeau stands alone as Canada — and the world — abandons green energy https://t.co/kgUnoYsN1c via @nationalpost


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil stocks on egregious free cash flow generation and attractive valuations.

Canadian oil stocks basket: CNQ, CVE, BTE, WCP

Think you've missed the energy rally??? Join me tomorrow at 12ET on @marketcall. The focus will be on the egregious levels of free cash flow the industry is currently generating and why Canadian oil stocks represent tremendous value. Let's keep the questions tight = more calls. https://t.co/lvRKBPZVGo


Summary: Endorses $114 WTI 2023 forecast; Canadian energy stocks offer ~33% FCF yield and ~25% shareholder returns at $110 oil.

Esteemed barrel counter @michael___tran raising his 2023 WTI forecast to $114 from $96 calling it "the strongest fundamental oil market setup in decades." At $110, we estimate the avg. CDN energy stock trades at a 33% free cashflow yield = "shareholder returns" of ~25% in '23! https://t.co/Xu5mtsxvWT


Summary: Canadian energy stocks could rally 20%+ if the Liberal government falls in October.

20%+ rally for Canadian energy stocks if the Liberal government falls in October.


Summary: Bullish WCS-exposed energy stocks on potential OPEC cuts + WTI rally above $60, implying 50%+ upside from deeply depressed levels.

WCS-exposed Canadian energy stocks: ATH, CVE, BTE

2019 WCS calendar strip just traded at $19.50! If OPEC cuts by 1.4MM+ Bbl/d and WTI rallies above $60 could we see a 50%+ rally in certain WCS exposed energy stocks? Many are still down 50%+ from their highs of 6 months ago...need to double to get back to prior highs #OOTT

WCS hysteria is in the air.  $50bbl differentials will not last and we are now at peak pessimism.  Futures market is thin and not reflective of reality.  1.1MM bbl/d of refining demand to return in weeks + Redwater refinery (80k bbl/d) + CBR ramp.  This too shall pass! #OOTT


Summary: Bullish energy sector: slowing US shale growth vs demand is a watershed moment that will dominate in months ahead.

US shale growth no longer satisfying global demand growth in 2020 (and beyond) is a watershed moment for the energy sector. Fear eventually fades...when it does this will become the dominant theme in the months ahead. I remain bullish.

U.S. shale oil output growth to slow in 2020 - Schlumberger CEO https://t.co/OWhqpSK20z


Summary: Long-only energy fund manager calls for energy sector bull run starting within 6 months.

As one of the last surviving long-only energy fund managers in the world, I'll be performing my monthly act of penitence tomorrow at 12ET on @marketcall. It feels like the world is against us right now but we are <6 months out from the beginning of the next bull run #OOTT https://t.co/Mo13C9o18f


Summary: Bullish energy/oil stocks: worst sentiment + cheapest valuations + largest supply disruption = powerful rally starting now.

I'll be on BNN at 2pm today to discuss why Saturday marks the beginning of what will be a very powerful rally in energy stocks.  Today is just the beginning. The market is just starting to figure that out. #OOTT https://t.co/lAN8X1a4GU https://t.co/5grTeBwTki

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Coming into the weekend...worst sentiment in history combined with cheapest valuations in history.  Combine that with the largest supply disruption in history and you get a very powerful rally in oil stocks #OOTT https://t.co/bEReuACYrE


Summary: WTI to $50 by year-end drives 100%+ upside in energy stocks as inventory normalizes and E&P optionality preserved.

WTI at $40/bbl = the perfect price level for now: balances preservation of E&P option value by taking them out of the death zone while further enforcing spending discipline to aid in the inventory normalization. $50WTI by year-end = 100%+ upside for energy stocks. https://t.co/KCqKVWJINj


Summary: Bullish energy sector; argues 35%+ YTD decline is irrational given demand hit is short-term and long-duration asset values remain intact.

This week to me has felt a lot like 2009 & 2015 with energy stocks plunging 5%+ a day and continuing to decouple from the oil price.  Base case remains that demand hit to be a short-term event...is it rational then to impair the value of a 10+ year asset by 35% (or more) YTD??? https://t.co/bAkK3toLxM


Summary: Bullish oil (market still short, Iran deal only defers spike to 2024) and energy stocks (Iran deal + weak economy already priced in at deeply discounted FCF/EV multiples).

What could an Iran deal mean for oil? 0.7-1MM Bbl/d over 6-9 months = 6 months of demand growth once China comes back. Defers the "$150+ spike" to 2024 (?), likely sets a higher floor as the last of the "low hanging fruit" capacity is brought online. Market still short IMO.

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With energy stocks trading at an estimated 20%/25%/29% FCF yields and 3.2x/2.8x/2.5x EV/CF at $80/$90/$100WTI, to me it feels like an Iranian deal + weak global economy have been fundamentally priced in. https://t.co/cEtiLd3lej


my average holding is still down 25% from its 52 week high and trades at a 41% free cashflow yield and 3.1x EV/CF at $60WTI. Still lots of upside ahead!!!

Summary: Holds energy equities with deep value (41% FCF yield, 3.1x EV/CF) still 25% off highs; sees significant upside from current levels.

Well, it took 11 very, very, very long months to achieve but my Fund is now ~ back to pre-COVID levels. Still lots of work to do but excited with how the macro continues to shape up and the opportunity ahead for energy investors! https://t.co/HCL1UAc4CZ

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Looking at that chart and feeling like upside from here is limited??? My average holding is still down 25% from its 52 week high and trades at a 41% free cashflow yield and 3.1x EV/CF at $60WTI. Still lots of upside ahead!!! https://t.co/KjE1JW2luB


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks on potential ESG-mandate-driven capital return and multiple re-rating.

Russian oil = bad
Non-Russian oil = good = ESG friendly

Canada = highest rated ESG barrel in the world
Canadian energy stocks = ESG greenlighted now???

Imagine if the $$$ that fled due to ESG mandates now returns? Think of the multiple rerating...

https://t.co/q9r1lStc2Q https://t.co/940DD6Sjnf


Summary: Bullish Canadian oilpatch: Trans Mountain approval removes final roadblock, shrinking differentials boost FCF, current 10%+ FCF yield valuations won't last.

The final potential roadblock to Canada adding 590,000 Bbl/d of new takeaway capacity has just been eliminated! Great news for the Canadian oilpatch. Shrinking price differentials = more free cash flow. Current low valuations (10%+ FCF yields) will not last.

#BREAKING: SUPREME COURT DISMISSES LEAVE TO APPEAL TRANS MOUNTAIN APPROVAL


I can buy energy stocks trading at broken valuations despite solid energy macro. This will not last.

Summary: Bullish energy stocks on broken valuations vs solid macro; specific holding trades at 37% FCF yield and deep drilling inventory — mispricing won't persist.

It still amazes me that I can buy energy stocks trading at broken valuations despite solid energy macro. Here is a top 3 Fund holding.  At $60WTI and strip gas trading at 2.0X EV/'22CF and a 37% FCF yield with a solid balance sheet and deep drilling inventory. This will not last. https://t.co/nYu3UDbskT


Summary: E&P stocks still cheap vs WTI rally, trading at 15% FCF yield and half historical EV/CF — rally has just begun.

Stocks (and 1 Fund in particular!) up 10%+ yesterday...is that the end of the rally? E&P's still greatly lagging WTI's 37% YTD rally and trading at 15% FCF yield, discount to liquidation value, and at < than half of historical EV/CF metrics. The rally has just begun #OOTT https://t.co/MeFuUgZjZe


Summary: Energy stocks are cheap; at current hedgeable oil prices, names generate enough FCF to buy back ~9% of shares in a single quarter.

How inexpensive are energy stocks? In Q1'22 alone, at an oil price that is hedge-able right now, the average name I follow could buy back ~9% of its shares outstanding from free cashflow. https://t.co/FF5slqht5h


I shift my energy fund to 100% Canadian E&P's this week

Summary: Rotated energy fund 100% into Canadian E&Ps over US E&Ps on valuation + regulatory risk; frac ban implies $100+ oil.

Why did I shift my energy fund to 100% Canadian E&P’s this week? Not just due to extremely attractive valuations. Insane rhetoric like this will plague US E&P’s for the next year. A Trudeau re-election in contrast isn’t looking so bad after all! A frac ban would= $100+ oil #OOTT

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It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas... https://t.co/JBU5fUBIlN


Summary: Multi-year bull market in oil and generational long opportunity in Canadian energy stocks.

Calling all energy insomniacs: join me on @CNBCWEX this Monday at 5:15am (sadly that is not a typo) with @SullyCNBC. I’ll be discussing the real impact of the Ukrainian conflict on energy, the multi-year bull market in oil, and the generational opportunity in CDN energy stocks.


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil producers: record CAD oil prices plus lean costs, low debt, and shareholder return focus make conditions historically optimal.

This is simply incredible: for a Canadian producer, it's literally NEVER been better than it is right now with oil trading at an all time high in CAD$!!! Now combine that with lean cost structures, low debt, and a commitment to "shareholder returns"... https://t.co/Wq68CYIE0O