Summary: Canadian energy stocks expected to rally on a Conservative election win Monday.

Only the Liberals would have the moxy to put a tax (GST) on a tax (carbon tax)!! How is that even legal? All for the enviro crime of drying her crop to feed fellow Canadians. Energy stocks (and anyone feeling taxed to death like this farmer) need a Conservative win on Monday.

@JustinTrudeau 's climate plan: carbon tax + bankrupt our farmers for FEEDING US while he flies around in 2 planes to preach the urgency of the climate crisis while China, the world's largest CO2 emitter, no longer buys our agricultural goods thanks to Trudeau. Insanity.


Summary: Long Canadian energy stocks on coming oil supply crisis; long reserve lives, low decline rates, narrowed differentials driving FCF and capital returns.

Canadian energy stocks are ideally positioned to benefit from the coming oil supply crisis. With a combination of long reserve lives, low decline rates, and a narrowed differential free cash flow and return of capital is maximized.  "The wall of cash" is finally here... https://t.co/a2m6YLx3uY


Summary: Aggressively accumulating Canadian midcap energy stocks at 35%+ FCF yields, implying superior value to Buffett's OXY position.

Canadian midcap energy: BTE, WCP, ATH, ARC

If OXY trading at an estimated 22% free cashflow yield at $100WTI gets Buffett this excited...imagine how I feel being able to accumulate Canadian midcaps trading at 35%+ FCF yields!!! https://t.co/dpSZw6D3LI


Summary: Bullish energy stocks on valuation/setup; WTI ~$70 floor supported by massive stock draws ahead.

Every day above $70WTI is a GREAT day. Energy stocks DO NOT need higher oil prices to be able to go up meaningfully higher...especially given the past week's sell off and the prior lack of participation as oil rose to $75.  Massive stock draws ahead should support a ~$70 floor. https://t.co/6XMmKjcEzu


Summary: TMX approval is a material positive for Canadian energy stocks, triggering a trading multiple re-rate with shovels in ground this summer as next catalyst.

TMX approved!!! While this should have been a total no-brainer, given the chronic disappointments that CDN energy investors have suffered over the years skepticism remained high heading into today. Now looking for direction on timing for "shovels in the ground" #OOTT https://t.co/7HN2tkog7y

---

"The company (@TransMtn ) has plans to have shovels in the ground this building season." While the cynical will still say nothing matters until oil is flowing through TMX, today is (better be!) a material positive for CDN oil stocks = beginning of a trading multiple re-rate #OOTT

---

"We have been assured by the company that the plan is to have shovels in the ground this Summer." This distinction was critical for stocks to react tomorrow. Today is a clear win. Next catalyst is First Nations buy-in. #OOTT


Summary: Bullish oil stocks; generalist money just starting to buy in, many names still have 2x+ upside.

2019 WTI strip is now at $64.99/bbl...are you feeling like you've missed the rally? Don't! Many oil stocks are still doubles or more and according to the best trading desks in Canada generalist money has JUST started to buy in.  GET LONG! #OOTT : https://t.co/QNvGZHSZRQ


Summary: Shares Goldman's bullish oil view: Brent fair value $110 in 2023 even in adverse scenario vs. Canadian energy stocks priced for $50 oil.

Brent crude futures proxy on Yahoo Finance

Goldman: “With inventories at record levels and with a potential increase in Saudi/UAE production further depleting record low spare capacity, we reiterate our view that the skew to prices from here is squarely skewed to the upside.”

---

Goldman “adverse scenario”: Russia no production decline + Saudi/UAE adding 0.5MM bbl/d + European recession + global GDP declines at half of what Europe does still = “fair value” of $110 Brent in 2023 vs. CDN energy stocks discounting $50ish after the June/July massacre.


CDN energy stocks discounting $50ish after the June/July massacre


Summary: Bullish oil stocks into 2021; setup now much better than pre-COVID when oil was at $60.

As better as we all likely feel after the past 2 month rally, remember that many oil stocks are still down 60% YTD = further 150% move needed to get back to where they were pre-COVID19...and the setup for 2021 is now MUCH better than it was in January when oil was at $60 https://t.co/BDea1wZAPr


Canadian energy stocks are the most attractive of any geography in the world. Great backdrop on why many can be multibaggers in the coming oil bull market

Summary: Canadian energy stocks most attractive globally; multibagger potential in upcoming oil bull market.

Canadian energy stocks are the most attractive of any geography in the world. Great backdrop by @CDNEnergyCentre on why many can be multibaggers in the coming oil bull market:  https://t.co/dzx3R89qRV


Summary: Bullish energy sector; buy any short-term pullback as inventory normalizes and post-COVID demand returns.

Consensus is shaping up around a material tightening by Summer with normalized inventory levels. Energy stocks looking to a post-COVID world...buy any short-term pull back. https://t.co/FJyrjy51ci


Bears just want to be bears... Despite the "peak demand" headlines this doesn't look like a sunset industry to me

Summary: Bullish E&P sector: depressed valuations + massive FCF generation means peak-demand fears are overblown; not a sunset industry.

Hold on...I'm supposed to be worried about peak oil demand in 20 years when between now and then (given currently depressed valuations) E&P's could privatize themselves 2 to 4+ times over out of free cash flow?!? Bears just want to be bears... #OOTT https://t.co/mKNlnT34Zf

---

Despite the "peak demand" headlines this doesn't look like a sunset industry to me... #OOTT https://t.co/6DyW2iOtYv


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy equities: cheapest valuations in history even in worst-case Liberal-win scenario, with pipeline/rail/FCF/TMX tailwinds.

Even with a Liberal win in Oct’ energy equities trade at their cheapest valuations in history despite $60/bbl oil, 400k bbl/d of pipeline optimizations by Q1/20, crude by rail ramping to 600k bbl/d, massive FCF, and likely TMX construction. That is our worst case scenario. #OOTT

Federal Polling:

LPC: 33% (+1)
CPC: 32% (-3)
NDP: 14% (-)
GPC: 14% (+2)
BQ: 4% (-)
PPC: 3% (+1)

Campaign Research / July 12, 2019 / 1896 Respondents / MOE 2.3% / Online

(% changes compared to June 6th)

#cdnpoli #lpc #cpc #ndp #gpc #ppc https://t.co/GqxfVdd136


Summary: Bullish oil and Canadian energy stocks: inventories near 2011-15 levels that supported $95 WTI, yet stocks down 70%+ despite oil 19% higher — deep mispricing.

OECD oil inventories nearing the 2011-2015 average when WTI averaged $95WTI ($97.94CAD) over 4 years. Today, given weakness in CAD WTI in CAD$ terms is $117/bbl! Yet, given the profound multiple compression some stocks are down 70%+ despite oil being 19% higher! Energy ignorance! https://t.co/FTm8CY3Zm7


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: free cash flow strong enough to retire all debt in 4.4 years, suggesting the rally has further to run.

Think the party is over for oil stocks after last year's monumental rally? At close to the current oil price, the average Canadian energy company could privatize and pay off all of its debt in just 4.4 years with free cash flow. 🚀 https://t.co/mPvL8B0Stw


Summary: Structural oil bull market in 2021 elevates Canadian energy to top global destination for low-decline, high-FCF energy investment.

As oil enters a structural bull market in 2021 global energy investors will increasingly search for low decline, long reserve life, high free cash flowing companies.  Canada, for the first time in many years, will finally take top spot globally! https://t.co/eGItjZs0R4


Summary: Bullish on energy/oil sector: 17% FCF yield at $70 WTI, 50-100% capital return commitments, and structurally challenged supply growth.

Is a sector that is trading at an average free cashflow yield of 17% at $70WTI, whom have committed that 50%-100% of that will be returned to investors via dividends and share buybacks, at a time when oil supply growth is structurally challenged, attractive to you? https://t.co/vGdf0nwgTt


Summary: Bullish oil macro and E&P sector in 2019 as capex discipline holds despite WTI above budget levels.

Still questioning E&P discipline this year? The proof is in the numbers. Read my lips: capex budgets will not be widely increased in 2019 even though WTI is now well above budgeted levels. Positive for both the oil macro and the investability of E&P's. Time to get bullish #OOTT https://t.co/FjAf9otsRF


Summary: Long Canadian energy stocks: valuations at 20-year lows with free optionality on higher oil prices in a structural bull/energy-crisis scenario.

With Canadian energy stock valuations at 20 year lows at CURRENT oil prices investors are getting free optionality on possible HIGHER prices such as this scenario, or that which my structural bull market/energy crisis scenario would suggest in the years ahead. https://t.co/K4Sw404gcp


Summary: Long Canadian oil equities: all-time low valuations, worst sentiment, and imminent re-rating catalysts; Goldman concurs.

5) So where to invest? Goldman out today agreeing with me...Canada. Lowest valuations + worst sentiment + imminent catalysts to re-rate valuations that are currently at all-time lows... #OOTT https://t.co/5FfeWkudNJ

1) As the market freaks out over short-term demand destruction from the coronavirus (SARS dented demand by 0.26MM Bbl/d in '03) , I'm focusing on what will matter after the panic ends: US growth deceleration, peaking of global offshore production, and Canadian egress solutions: https://t.co/WmVYvxXKMw


Summary: Bullish on Canadian midcap oil equities at $60+ WTI; multi-bagger potential flagged; gas trade is over.

Canadian midcap oil stocks sector: BTE, WCP, ATH

@BDEPardell Don’t read into the cash position too much (it’s much lower now). I didn’t want to take the risk of 11.5 months of hard work squandered in the final 2 weeks when liquidity dries up. Gas trade is over for now but $60+WTI = multi-bagger potential in CDN midcap oil stocks #OOTT

#oott Eric’s nine point energy fund... 30%+ cash now as of end of December no meg arc... anyhow have a look. Happy trading. https://t.co/QZvHi6Kf7j


Summary: Bullish oil equities from depressed base; many names below liquidation value with spectacular upside potential at sentiment turn.

@smacpher1 We had a 10% WLL weight going into the "sentiment turn" in February 2016 and it gapped up ~20% a day for 3 days in a row. When you inflect from such a low base, as we are at today (many names below liquidation value), the upside can be spectacular #OOTT https://t.co/yh5OKHnYwT

@ericnuttall I was waiting for a breakout, was buying options today - didn't buy a lot previously since didn't want to waste $ on premium.

If/when a break out happens, it'll be quick. Reminds me of the options I had bought in #WLL in Jan 2016 (Eric had liked it then I believe).


Summary: Energy stocks are a generational long; oil supply crisis incoming, sector pricing in <$60 WTI understates the bullish outlook.

It's time to connect the dots...the world is headed towards an oil supply crisis and with energy stocks discounting an oil price <$60WTI still in my opinion represent a generational opportunity. Read more in this Wednesday's @financialpost. https://t.co/AUpGNdKSSj


Summary: Bullish energy stocks into 2021; multibagger opportunities remain despite 120%+ rally off lows.

Given the apocalyptic implosion this year (-79% at the low) energy stocks have rallied by 120%+. Have some "missed it" this time as well??? The setup for 2021 is far better now than in January...despite the move from the lows we still see many multibagger opportunities from here https://t.co/96wLq17omM

Given the rally in energy stocks off the March 18th lows it would be easy for some to think that they've missed out on the opportunity. Have they? I've been using 2016 as my playbook: from the January lows energy stocks rallied by ~60% in 2 months... #OOTT https://t.co/HDUc4v9zmj


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: new takeaway capacity by YE22 to narrow WCS differentials and close discount to global peers.

An important milestone for Canadian energy stocks and 1 of 2 projects that by YE'22ish add almost 1MM Bbl/d of new takeaway capacity. WCS differentials $10-12/bbl in 2022 and $8-10/bbl in 2023 IMO. Landlocked/end of pipe CDN discount to global peers to soon come to an end??? https://t.co/oNRbPqyexl


Summary: Bullish energy stocks despite YTD gains; valuations compelling and the run has only just begun.

The most common question I get now from prospective clients is "haven't I missed the run in energy stocks?" Despite strong YTD gains valuations clearly remain highly compelling...the run has only just begun! https://t.co/G5D1W6aqCd


Summary: Long Canadian energy stocks: CPC win = catalyst; if not, sector already priced for worst case at 15%+ FCF yields — win either way.

With CDN energy stock valuations at their lowest levels in history (both from macro energy worries + "made in Canada" issues) a CPC win would be a clear win for the space. If not, stocks already discount worst case scenario (expensive egress) with 15+% FCF yields. Win/~Win #OOTT


selling large caps to buy beaten up smalls -10%WTD. Buying some names at less than 2.5X '22 EV/CF

Summary: Rotating from energy large caps into beaten-down small-cap energy names down ~10% WTD at <2.5x EV/CF.

Trading colour: selling large caps to buy beaten up smalls -10%WTD. Given oil plunge finding supply is not as easy as you would think...good sign. In general stocks holding up well with another 4% crude selloff. Buying some names at less than 2.5X '22 EV/CF. Thank you volatility! https://t.co/dIeirx9Amu


Summary: Bullish on oil and oil stocks; calls the start of a major bull market with WTI heading to $50 on inventory draws.

Both @bp_plc and a sector veteran throwing in the towel on oil yesterday. It's been a tough go yet all the signs are there: we stand at the cusp of the next great bull market for oil stocks. Step 1 is $50 WTI on accelerated inventory draws: https://t.co/1B1Qmoo18T


Summary: Energy stocks (US & Canadian) are stunningly underperforming WTI's YTD highs, implying a catch-up long thesis.

WTI making new YTD highs this morning with 2019 strip almost at $60/bbl...the extent of the underperformance of energy stocks (both CDN and US) is stunning to me #OOTT : https://t.co/dao0eTkGQc


Summary: Strongly bullish energy stocks and oil: demand recovery + structural undersupply from slowing US shale/offshore will reassert; current pricing a historic gift.

Oil and energy stocks have not been this mispriced since the Financial Crisis. Demand will ultimately return, 2021-2024+ supply crunch remains, and energy stocks discounting ~$46/bbl will be seen as a gift. Coronavirus info courtesy of Medcan: #fintwit https://t.co/15yOiZN6yM

---

A good note out by Michael Lowen at Scotia. This too shall pass..and when it does the structural undersupply from decelerating US shale growth + peaking of offshore will matter again. F.E.A.R. = false evidence that appears real. #fintwit https://t.co/0TBjT0Qu5U


Summary: Buy the dip in oil stocks on healing oil market fundamentals; inventory back to 5-year average, YOY surplus down 18%.

The oil market is healing! Huge oil draw driven by drop in net exports but the more comprehenisve "Big 3" YOY surplus fell by 18% last week to now only 53MM Bbls. Inventory levels now back to the 5 year average. Buy the recent dip in oil stocks...some down 10%+ this week. https://t.co/mXyEudr8BR


Summary: E&P stocks are thoroughly mispriced/undervalued; bullish on long-term global energy demand with no oil substitute.

XOP as broad E&P proxy; context is global

Dramatic (and uninformed) headlines like this show how far  sentiment has swung = thoroughly mispriced E&P stock valuations. Governments cannot control LT population growth nor the desire to increase one's living standard = doubling of global energy demand with no oil substitute https://t.co/xDwrulXA4b


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy equities on record FCF, buybacks, dividends, and 29% FCF yield at $80 WTI.

Every day above $80WTI is a phenomenal day!!!
Record amount of free cashflow generation + commitment to flow it back to investors and mute growth = meaningful buybacks and dividends in 2022.  Average FCF yield (to equity) at $80WTI of the energy stocks I follow in Canada? 29%! https://t.co/XCUVLIK6ZV


Summary: Long Canadian energy stocks over US peers on cheaper valuations, lower debt/decline rates, better FCF, and stronger shareholder returns in 2022.

Why am I primarily invested in Canadian energy stocks (blue dots) over those in the US? Cheaper, less debt, lower decline rates, positive rate of change with differentials, more free cashflow... all = greater ability to return meaningful amount of FCF back to shareholders in 2022 https://t.co/pmwDZbv1GT


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil sector: EV adoption slower than consensus means oil demand runway is longer, supporting cheap FCF valuations.

AutoNation CEO on CNBC this morning: electric car sales to make up 20%-25% of total sales by.........2030. Could the runway for oil displacement be a bit longer than consensus believes? Relevant when the avg. CDN oil company could privatize and be debt free in 4.8 years of FCF??? https://t.co/fIrnQrZEWG


Summary: Generalist long-only money has yet to rotate into energy en masse; author sees a second wave of upside ahead.

Energy specialist salesmen at both banks and boutiques confirming that generalist long-only money has not yet begun to buy energy stocks en masse.  Conversations have increased and tone improved but not yet translating into buying = 2nd wave of upside #OOTT


Summary: Bullish Canadian heavy oil names led by SU: Berkshire re-entry signals returning capital flow on underappreciated FCF + improving export.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

"Peak apathy for CDN E&P's?" part 2: Company XYZ, $1.5BN market cap,at current spot ($55WTI, $20WCS diffs in 2020) trades at a 13% FCF yield (29% FCF yield at $60WTI) and has a 30 year proved reserve life index. They could privatize 4x from FCF using just their 1P reserves. #OOTT

---

Berkshire Hathaway reestablishing a position in SU = money flow coming back to Canadian heavy oil names. Why? Enormous and underappreciated FCF generating capabilities + epic apathy + improving export capabilities. #OOTT https://t.co/ERnMHPLKyk


money flow coming back to Canadian heavy oil names. Why? Enormous and underappreciated FCF generating capabilities + epic apathy + improving export capabilities

Canadian heavy oil sector: ATH, CVE, CNQ, BTE


Summary: Author's $60 WTI base case intact on demand recovery + shale decline; sees multibagger upside in Canadian SMID oil equities; cites JPM $70 Brent as upside scenario.

Canadian SMID E&P basket: ATH, Baytex, Whitecap, Cenovus

Valero: gasoline demand to be "fairly normal" by Q3. By then the 53MM Bbl US products surplus / ~185MM Bbl global oil surplus will have normalized. Supply? Not so much with ongoing US shale declines. $60WTI case intact and with it multibagger potential for many SMID CDN oil co's https://t.co/rzkTzbRLig

---

JP Morgan: I"ll see Nuttall's $60WTI forecast and raise him ~$8...calling for $70 Brent by end of 2021. I'm going to have to update my FCF chart... https://t.co/qDOoBUMpYl

---

What if JP Morgan is right (~$70WTI by year-end 2021)??? Kind of negates any worry about terminal value if a company can entirely privatize and delever in 4 years from free cash flow... https://t.co/Isr2rJrRWD


Summary: Bullish Canadian E&P sector: massively underowned and undervalued, rally feels real with WTI near $65 and AB curtailments persisting.

With WTI approaching $65 and AB curtailments likely to last into 2020 until Line 3 comes online this chart shows how undervalued many CDN E&P's remain.  The rally feels real...don't underestimate a massively underowned + undervalued sector #OOTT https://t.co/AciYH1wmcV


Summary: Multi-year bull market for oil; generational long opportunity in energy stocks with imminent re-rating catalyst.

Webcast replay alert: 45 minutes that cover why we believe we are in a multi-year bull market for oil, the generational opportunity in energy stocks, and the imminent catalyst that we believe will re-rate energy stocks meaningfully higher.  https://t.co/Id9fDhubai https://t.co/hfeCZOlJPu


Summary: Bullish energy stocks; draws 2016 analog where sector rallied another 82% after initial bounce, implying significant upside remains.

Given the rally in energy stocks off the March 18th lows it would be easy for some to think that they've missed out on the opportunity. Have they? I've been using 2016 as my playbook: from the January lows energy stocks rallied by ~60% in 2 months... #OOTT https://t.co/HDUc4v9zmj

---

...for those who thought that they had "missed it", energy stocks then went on to rally another 82% by year-end...will history rhyme this year...??? https://t.co/T5kAaGo2x9


Summary: Long energy stocks; author calls it a generational opportunity supported by IEA reports and WTI price scenarios.

XLE as global energy stocks proxy (context is predominantly US/Canada)

My next column in the @financialpost will focus on what I believe to be a generational opportunity in energy stocks. Reports like today's from the @IEA only help the case. Due to popular demand here is my $70WTI chart pack (you should see what the $100WTI ones look like!). https://t.co/xf5G45vRGo


Summary: TMX pipeline construction clarity should be a material catalyst for Canadian oil equities.

Confidence/clarity on Transmountain construction actually beginning should serve (in a normally functioning energy market) as a material catalyst for Canadian oil stocks #OOTT


Summary: Bullish oil; Canadian oilpatch named most attractive investment jurisdiction globally.

Brent crude futures as global oil commodity proxy

I was happy to do a podcast yesterday with the Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors in which I spoke about the bullish outlook for oil and why the Canadian oilpatch is the most attractive jurisdiction in the world for investment

LISTEN: We’re half way through 2020, and June’s episode of the WeldCor Supplies CAODC Podcast gets you caught up on all things CAODC/Canadian oil & gas! Special guests include @ericnuttall from Ninepoint Partners and CAODC President & CEO Mark A. Scholz. https://t.co/cdmEUrWt0w


Summary: Bullish energy stocks for 2023 on positive oil macro and record FCF to be returned via buybacks and dividends.

Join me today at 12ET on @BNNBloomberg with @AndrewBellBNN. I'll be focusing on recessionary fears' impact on the oil price + why I believe 2023 will be another great year for energy stocks. Keep the ?'s short and perhaps we can even bring back the Marketcall Minute!

---

@BNNBloomberg @AndrewBellBNN Wonderful to be back in studio with @AndrewBellBNN for @marketcall after a 2+ year "virtual" break. I covered why I believe 2023 will be another great year for energy investors due to positive oil macro+ record FCF to be returned via buybacks adn div's.  https://t.co/0Be45SotvZ https://t.co/YFbh5oBW60


Summary: Bullish crude to $130–$150+ on irreplaceable Russian export losses; energy stocks expected to follow.

Join me tomorrow on @marketcall at 12ET. Major theme: the loss of Russian oil exports are irreplaceable, even with an imminent Iranian deal. Oil needs to go high enough to kill discretionary demand...$130-$150+. What's the upside in energy stocks? Tune in tomorrow. https://t.co/X0Zj1nDPvB


Summary: Bullish E&P/oil equities sector: quality names at all-time lows or below liquidation value, expects gap to fair value to close.

$780MM of fresh capital to go to work in a sector with many quality companies either trading at all time lows (with oil at $57/bbl) or trading below their liquidation value (historic!)...godspeed on helping close the gap between current market valuations and fair value!!! #OOTT

ARC Financial Corp. closes ARC Energy Fund 9 https://t.co/mOS5rfTJ2Y


Summary: Oil stocks materially undervalued at $60 WTI; gas stocks look fully valued without winter demand showing up soon.

After such a strong December for energy stocks (and some funds!) it’s an encouraging start to the year! Oil stocks still materially undervalued with $60WTI but Winter better show up soon or else gas stocks look fully valued to me #OOTT


Summary: Bullish energy stocks for rest of year; oil near 3-year high while stocks at historic lows vs oil strip creates upside via buybacks/dividends rerating.

Oil trading near a 3 year high yet some oil stocks down 15% this month trading ~ a 10 year low versus the oil strip.  Confused? Frustrated? Excited? I'll walk through my oil playbook for the rest of the year and the potential upside for energy stocks today at 12ET on @marketcall https://t.co/um00Ue9qBm

---

MEANINGFUL share buybacks / dividend increases/initiations financed from egregious levels of free cashflow are the answer to shaking generalists from their coma and rerating stocks currently trading at historic lows while oil is $1 away from a 3 year high. https://t.co/6PosazpUw8 https://t.co/VtkPWvCKML


Summary: Actively buying Canadian small-cap nat gas producers; scarce supply of stock seen as bullish signal.

Small Canadian nat gas producers: Advantage, Birchcliff

Wondering why Canadian small caps are rallying when SU/CNQ are down as are US E&P's??? There is no supply of stock available! I've been buying 1MM of a small cap nat gas producer today (<$2MM worth)...took an entire day for the trader to find it. Sellers strike = Bullish sign. https://t.co/d4KQ5Cvf5W


Summary: Buying energy stocks at <2.5x EV/CF; expects oil bottom in and 2H 2020 recovery driven by OPEC cuts, Libya outages, China ramp.

With a likely 1MM+ Bbl/d cut this week by OPEC, Libyan production remaining -1MM Bbl/d, Chinese activity slowly ramping, flat Jan/Feb Chinese imports (ie. dip buying)...have we seen the bottom for oil? Continuing to buy energy stocks at <2.5x EV/CF with a view to a 2H'20 recovery https://t.co/tva0YHjbrl


Summary: Bullish energy stocks: cashflow growth outpaces YTD price gains, leaving valuations cheaper than early 2021.

The question remains the same: how can I possibly buy energy stocks/fund when stocks have rallied so much? Answer: many energy stocks are cheaper today than they were on January 1st '21 despite the YTD rally! Cashflow expansion > YTD stock appreciation: https://t.co/NDyTtdhvU2


Summary: Implies oil-linked equities are undervalued vs WTI's 28% YTD gain; bullish on energy stocks trading at 25% FCF yields.

PSA: 2019 WTI strip just made a year-to-date high. WTI is up 28% so far this year...some stocks are still down...that are trading at 25% free cash flow yields...make the connection... #OOTT https://t.co/wT2DsqBup2


Summary: Bullish WTI to $60+ and oil equities on moderating US supply growth vs global demand driving OPEC call and sector inflows.

I reiterate, a looming bullish catalyst is the realization that US supply growth is moderating BELOW global demand growth = call on OPEC. $60/WTI + sector inflows = multibagger potentials #OOTT

Rystad Energy recently revised down US oil production exit for 2019 down from ~13.4 mb/d to ~12.9 mb/d.

#OOTT


Summary: Bullish Canadian E&P stocks on a potential Conservative election win in October; sector at historically low valuations.

Political leanings aside, a Conservative win in October would be a very meaningful positive catalyst for CDN E&P stocks that are now trading at their lowest valuations in history...partially due to @JustinTrudeau #OOTT

I get that we live in partisan times.

But the headline below is not a parody.

It is a very real question whether, in breaking Canada’s ethics laws Justin Trudeau has ethically disqualified himself from high office.
 https://t.co/XabCpi4F9j


Summary: Bullish energy stocks; still fundamentally mispriced at <3X EV/CF and 20% FCF yields, multiple expansion hasn't started yet.

It's important to reflect on just how far we've come in a year. Despite strong YTD gains oil stocks remain fundamentally mispriced...I can still buy names at <3X 2022 EV/CF at $60WTI and 20% FCF yields.  The re-rate/multiple expansion has yet to begin...early innings still.

This week to me has felt a lot like 2009 & 2015 with energy stocks plunging 5%+ a day and continuing to decouple from the oil price.  Base case remains that demand hit to be a short-term event...is it rational then to impair the value of a 10+ year asset by 35% (or more) YTD??? https://t.co/bAkK3toLxM


Summary: Bullish on Canadian oil producers at 52-week/all-time lows; highlights sustainably high dividend yields down to ~$50/bbl vs 2% on 30yr Treasuries.

ARC Resources TSX ticker, context confirms Canadian E&P with dividends

52 week low watch (with oil +20% YTD): ARX (all time low), WCP (9 yr low), TVE, PGF (all time low), TOG (all time low), KEL (all time low), NVA (all time low), BNE (all time low), CFW, ATH (all time low), IMO, HSE (16 yr low), BTE (all time low),VET (15 yr low),TCW. Brutal. #OOTT https://t.co/ibb2HSvIaG

---

Addendum to my 52 week low tweet...dividend yields of some which generally are all sustainable down to ~$50/bbl: ARX 10.5%, WCP 9.4%, TOG 9.3%, HSE 5.8%, VET 14.2%. 2020 WTI strip $51.84 and 2021 strip $50.66 at the moment and 30 year US treasury paying you 2%! . #OOTT


Summary: Bullish oil & gas equities on collapsing shale growth, peak offshore, historically low valuations, underweights, and buybacks.

Recipe for a rally = shale growth rate imploding + '20 offshore peaking + lowest valuations in history (15%+ FCF yields at spot) + massive sector underweights + juicy sustainable dividend yields + share buybacks (2019 = past 10 years combined) + huge lag b/w stocks and WTI #OOTT https://t.co/YcPbqcLDgZ


Summary: Long energy stocks; coronavirus panic selloff is an overreaction and presents an epic buying opportunity.

Coronavirus panic watch: Purell/hand sanitizer is completely sold out at Shopper's Drug Marts in downtown Toronto.  The 1 remaining location that has some is rationing them...1 per customer.  Epic opportunity in energy stocks once fear subsides and rationality returns #OOTT https://t.co/9YCj0yGRxD

---

Coronavirus Panic Watch Part 2: the stock market is an emotional beast and fear makes us do stupid things in the short term. It’s natural. Selling energy stocks down 20%+ on a short-term demand hit will in time be regarded as a poor decision. Lysol wipes shelf this morning #OOTT https://t.co/NA4OUJpK4A


Summary: 100% allocated to Canadian energy: lowest-ever valuations, FCF growth, long inventory life, re-rate potential as US shale falters.

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF, best Canadian energy sector proxy

We are for the first time in recent memory 100% invested in Canada...the land of peak pessimism, lowest valuations in history, growing free cash flow, low decline rates, & long inventory life assets. Growing US anti-oil sentiment + faltering shale models=re-rate potential #OOTT


Summary: Bullish on energy stocks into 2022 on RBC price target hikes, positive earnings revisions, and cheap valuations (<2X P/CF).

RBC increasing its oil price deck (2022 WTI $50 ->$57) and boosting energy stock price targets (up 26%). This matters greatly to both generalists (sentiment boost) and quants (who follow positive earnings revisions). Many names < 2X P/CF! Epic bull market next year...get long! https://t.co/lfzZMlbiXp


Summary: Long US energy stocks post-COVID: shale wounded, offshore declining, demand normalizing = multi-bagger upside.

US oil rig count falls 58 (down by 160 in 3 weeks) to 504.  2020 exit likely down more than 1.5MM Bbl/d. US shale growth mortally wounded + global offshore declines + demand normalization + shut-in well damage = multi-bagger upside in many energy stocks post COVID-19 https://t.co/4w0MVVwe5g


Summary: Bullish energy sector: stocks near historic low valuations with multi-bagger potential at $60+ oil; selling pressure exhausted, gap-ups expected when real money returns.

Increasingly, generalist investors are appearing in the media highlighting the attractiveness of the energy sector. This change in tone is palpable.  $60bbl+ in 2020 = multi-bagger potential for many energy stocks still trading near their lowest valuations in history #OOTT

---

Trading observation: I tried to buy a beaten up CDN oil stock today. Bid for 5MM shares with the stock already up 4% on the day. Got filled on 300k. Lesson? Selling pressure has been exhausted. There is no supply. When the real $ returns to this sector, stocks will gap up #OOTT


Summary: Bullish midcap energy stocks on 20-40%+ FCF yields and faster-than-expected demand normalization; expects re-rate in coming months.

What would it take for a midcap energy stock to double? While most are up ~100% from the lows they are still down 50%+ YTD. '21 FCF yields of 20%+ at $50 and 40%+ at $60 + demand normalizing faster than most though possible a few months ago = likely re-rate in the next few months https://t.co/ojgMfrAQhw


The worst is over for oil. Market wrongly obsessed with 'when will demand reach pre-COVID19 levels?' versus realizing that global oil inventories should reach balance by year-end '20 due to massive shut-ins and production declines.

Summary: Bullish crude oil: global inventory balance by year-end 2020 due to shut-ins/production declines; demand obsession misses the supply side.

The worst is over for oil. Market wrongly obsessed with "when will demand reach pre-COVID19 levels?" versus realizing that global oil inventories should reach balance by year-end '20 due to massive shut-ins and production declines. Demand is only half the equation. #OOTT https://t.co/q7Ltbtl6Sl

---

Gasoline is leading the recovery up 30% from the lows (with much of the US economy still under lock down).  While jet fuel will take longer to recover (given limited business travel) the gasoline market is ~3 times its size...the one to watch. https://t.co/vGY8cCd00V


Summary: Multi-year bull thesis intact: oil undersupplied, SPR ending, China reopening ahead; oil equities cheap on FCF with strong shareholder returns.

There are times when the financial demand for oil implodes while the physical demand for oil remains strong. This is one of those times. Tune out the noise: the market remains undersupplied, SPR ends in 3 months, China will unlock one day, & OPEC spare capacity exhaustion cometh. https://t.co/NsL8Ndy2JQ

---

Despite a constant bombardment of daily "recession" headlines, we see no erosion in our multi-year bull market thesis. Valuations are the lowest we have ever seen, FCF builds every day, and the commitment of companies to return it back to shareholders remains steadfast. https://t.co/DTepC47WfT


Summary: Energy demand fears overdone as UK avoids full lockdown; bullish lean on energy sector.

By far, the biggest headwind to energy sentiment = worries of a repeat of the historic demand shock due to a 2nd wave yet the UK's actions today (more masking, pubs shutting at 10pm,...) show the lack of political willingness to repeat March's lock-down.  Demand fears overdone??? https://t.co/qvJNEr302A


Summary: Endorses RBC's $61-63 WTI forecast for 2021-22; reiterates buying E&P pullbacks as buyback potential is massive.

A great note by RBC's @michael___tran calling for $61WTI in '21 and $63WTI in '22. Many E&P's would be able to buy back >50% of their outstanding shares over this time frame. I reiterate: use every pullback to your opportunity. https://t.co/VqNgHltwOp

---

If RBC (and Goldman, JP Morgan, RJ,....) are right about       >$60WTI for the next 2 years the average company on this chart could retire 1/3 of their entire capital structure (ie. share buybacks and debt retirement). Staggering! https://t.co/M0XKMgoeT0


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: TMX + KXL pipeline construction narrowing WCS differentials sets up a strong sector re-rate.

MAJOR positive for Canadian oil companies (and a great scoop by @geoffreymorgan). Many (myself included) had thought the probability of construction ahead of the US elections was nil...happy to be proven wrong this time. #OOTT  https://t.co/mH9UE7lgvo via @nationalpost

---

TMX pipe going in the ground as we speak and KXL construction to start in March. The days of uber wide WCS differentials are soon coming to an end...strong re-rate potential for Canadian energy stocks once the market starts to believe. #OOTT https://t.co/WSmmrtlL5o


Summary: Bullish mid-cap oil equities; argues massive FCF yield / fundamentals disconnect will close in their favor.

Mid cap oil stocks trading at ~20% FCF yields talking dividend increases and buybacks...the market WILL care one day. Biggest disconnect b/w stock prices and fundamentals that anyone alive has ever seen. #OOTT https://t.co/I4vAApv5ix


Summary: Bullish energy sector: stocks oversold vs flat oil despite improving demand/supply fundamentals; sentiment overly negative.

Since July 1st oil is flat yet energy stocks have fallen by 15% with some near their March lows. Sentiment has taken a beating from BP peak demand, 2nd wave, Cali ICE ban, hydrogen/green diesel hype...yet all the while demand has been slowly normalizing + supply falling =F.E.A.R. https://t.co/HyWd1hCAcX


Summary: LNG Canada FID is bullish for the entire Canadian energy sector; signals renewed investor confidence.

LNG Canada a go! Solid indication of confidence in Canada by some of the largest Oil Co’s in the world. Canada no longer the “land of no”...good for the entire sector.

BREAKING NEWS: We've announced a Positive Final Investment Decision and green light for LNG Canada's LNG export facility in #Kitimat, #BC. #LNG4Canada Full release: https://t.co/W7JEp4PI8u https://t.co/n2XnKaMVD4


Summary: Strongly bullish Canadian energy equities: cheapest globally, best FCF profile, 20%+ FCF yields at $70 WTI, generational opportunity.

Canadian energy stocks: cheapest in the world (same valuations as Russian E&P's), ESG leaders, best FCF profile, over-piped in 2022+ (tight differentials going forward), and best ability to return egregious levels of FCF back to investors. 20%+ FCF yields at $70WTI! https://t.co/VkdWx51icM

Oil is in a multi-year bull market and energy stocks represent a generational opportunity amidst the fog of energy ignorance. Hear why in this 45 minute webcast recorded earlier today: https://t.co/HR4OoDaUxX https://t.co/YQi3xphizm


Summary: Strong conviction long energy sector on vaccines, global mobility recovery, Brent term structure improvement, and beaten-down valuations.

3 vaccines = ability to believe in a post-COVID world + global mobility trends showing positive inflection + Brent term structure improving+stocks breaching resistance levels + FOMO kicking in + many energy stocks still -50+% YTD...If you're not long energy now you never will be. https://t.co/ugfgqbqcmW


Summary: Bullish Canadian WCS-leveraged oil producers as differential narrows to rail economics ($20-25/bbl) by end of Q1.

WCS-leveraged Canadian oil producers: ATH, CVE, BTE

I applaud @RachelNotley for her recent decisiveness on the issue of record high oil differentials. Today’s announcement should see WCS differentials approach rail economics ($20-25/bbl) by the end of Q1 (6 months early). Highly positive for CDN WCS levered names.


Summary: Bullish energy stocks into year-end and beyond; only needs generalists to believe in a $60+ WTI floor, not higher oil prices.

We do NOT need higher oil prices for energy stocks to continue to rally into year-end (and beyond) but only for  the generalist to believe in a higher, sustainable floor of $60+WTI. Read more tomorrow about how I'm positioned heading into year-end in the @financialpost tomorrow! https://t.co/cwRdHM9co5


Summary: Energy equities attractive at $60 WTI; oversold vs modest oil decline, bullish into Q1 earnings.

Energy stocks have overshot the modest sell-off in oil this past month, largely on low volume. Equity investors more worried about Iran/India 3rd wave/NOPEC than commodity investors? Stocks remain extremely attractively valued at $60WTI and Q1 earnings is just around the corner. https://t.co/UQD7Mij9ui


Summary: Bullish oil structural thesis (shale exhausted, OPEC spare capacity gone, demand destruction needed); implies Canadian energy stocks are a generational buy at ~$60 WTI discount.

So if US shale hyper-growth is over, OPEC is soon out of spare capacity, the supermajors cannot grow for years, and demand must get killed via higher oil prices, are CDN energy stocks still a "generational opportunity" given they discount an oil price of ~ $60WTI??? https://t.co/ZDd8PE5CS6


Summary: Bullish oil to $100 WTI by year-end; energy stocks still a generational buying opportunity.

Is oil likely to reach $100WTI by year-end and if so how much potential upside still remains in energy stocks? Read why energy stocks still represent a generational opportunity in my 17th column for the @financialpost https://t.co/r18DN3qtYU


Summary: Strongly bullish WTI to $100 on structural supply constraints + very bullish Canadian energy stocks discounting only $60 WTI.

My view is that even after the last cruise missile falls, that sanctions on Russian energy will be enduring, structurally impacting 1MM+ Bbl/d of exports + loss of productivity from restricted access to services/capital...

---

My focus remains on what matters: demand normalization and 2H'22 surge, the end of US shale hypergrowth, OPEC spare capacity exhaustion, and insufficient investment by the supermajors. Everything else to me is a distraction...

---

As I explained in my @financialpost column, inventory levels fundamentally support $100WTI. With the past 2 days weakness there is no political risk premium in the oil price IMO. With CDN energy stocks discounting $60WTI, I remain very bullish. The golden era of FCF is here! https://t.co/sO6y4yaESL


Summary: Bullish oil to $60+ in 2H 2020 and Canadian mid-cap energy on coronavirus-driven sell-off viewed as buying opportunity.

Oil trading near a 1 year low on caronavirus panic and CDN mid cap energy stocks "no bid"???  Sounds like time for my next @marketcall appearance...tomorrow at 12ET where I'll discuss why I see oil recovering to $60+ in 2H'20 and why the recent energy sell-off is a gift #OOTT https://t.co/KNywjo0X3N


energy stocks represent a generational opportunity amidst the fog of energy ignorance

Summary: Author bullish on oil and energy equities as a multi-year, generational opportunity driven by end of US shale hyper-growth and restored discipline.

The era of US shale hyper growth is over. External sources of funding are no longer available, compensation metrics have changed, and variable dividends codified. "Discipline" is the new normal.  The sins of the past will not be repeated. https://t.co/nfYgkkrXHc


Summary: Declares bull market in Canadian energy (XEG above 200dma) driven by generalist and algo inflows into midcap E&Ps.

Trading update: multiple inbounds from all across the Street this morning bidding for a wide variety midcap E&P's in size. Generalists coming back + momentum/algos. The turn is in with XEG smashing through its 200 day moving average. Bull market in 2020+ #OOTT https://t.co/VTmN6P1UIQ


Summary: Bullish energy stocks and oil on multi-year bull thesis independent of geopolitics; energy equities lagging WTI spike is opportunity.

I don't know who needs to hear this, but the multi-year oil bull market thesis doesn't hinge on war in Ukraine or an Iran deal, and energy stocks have been lagging the recent spike in WTI.  Investors need not believe in the calls for $100+ to still be excited about energy stocks. https://t.co/6NsvkGG3kg


Summary: Bullish energy sector: buybacks at generational-low valuations will force a re-rating; 3-5 year buyback capacity implies massive upside.

"If you don't see the value in our stock, then we do" is now becoming the mantra of energy companies, expressed with meaningful share buybacks, until they either privatize, or force a re-rating from near generational low valuations. https://t.co/Ki9HlEqLbX

---

To be clear, I do not want nor expect sector wide privatizations.  It is the re-rating that I'm after that such action must force -> What is the value of the last remaining share if you have 20+ years of inventory and can buy back all of your shares in only 3-5 years???


Summary: Bullish energy equities on 3x EV/CF and 23% FCF yield; meaningful capital return catalyst expected in September.

Q2 results so far have been stellar across the board.
I'll talk to the lack of response in the energy equities tomorrow on @BNNBloomberg (Summer doldrums not helping!) but every day above $70WTI is a great day...FCF accumulating for some serious shareholder returns coming soon!

---

Very clearly with energy stocks trading at 3.0x EV/CF and an average 23% FCF yield we do NOT need oil to rally further for the stocks to do quite well. It will all come down to meaningful "return of capital" messaging in September and is something I'm working on aggressively. https://t.co/9f7ZmDUpz0


Ignorant 'sunset industry' belief = suppressed trading multiples for energy stocks. Key to re-rating? Ending energy ignorance.

Summary: Long energy stocks: persistent hydrocarbon demand means 'sunset industry' discount is unwarranted; long-dated reserves are deeply undervalued.

Amazing stat: the market for lubricants, essential to electric cars and wind turbines, is HUGE at 60% the size of the entire edible oil (olive, soybean,etc) market [source: How the World Really Works]. Tell me again how oil demand is going to zero, even as we “transition”???

---

Similarly, what do electric cars drive on? Rubber tires and asphalt…both made from…oil. Why does this matter? Ignorant “sunset industry” belief = suppressed trading multiples for energy stocks. Key to re-rating? Ending energy ignorance.

---

We will, I believe, consume hydrocarbons for the rest of our lifetimes, and at quantities far in excess of what is commonly believed. This has a profound impact on the value of long-dated reserves, for which you pay nothing today, as companies can privatize in ~4-5 years with FCF


Summary: Bullish on Canadian E&P TSX-deletion candidates: oversold ~$50MM+ vs <$20MM actual selling pressure; strong buy opportunity into index fear.

Best short term opportunity right now? E&P's that are likely TSX index deletion candidates on Sept.20 that have shed $50MM+ in market cap since the predictions first came out yet selling pressure amounts to <$20MM which one fund could easily absorb. Take advantage of fear! #OOTT

I’m a buyer of fear. I’m a buyer of panic. I’m a buyer of capitulation. Right now feels like all 3. January 2016 is when I killed it and this feels very similar. Putting 15% cash to work this afternoon. #OOTT


Summary: Bullish Canadian midcap WCS oil producers: trading 3-4x EBITDA, 17-34% FCF yields, 30yr reserves; can buyback ~1/3 of shares/yr, effectively privatizing in ~3 years.

WCS-exposed midcap producers: ATH, Baytex, Cenovus

Crude-by-Rail Update: AB Gov't commits to 120k Bbl/d by mid-'20. Supports our view of '19 exit of 450k Bbl/d = ~$17.50WCS diff in 2020/21. On strip some midcap WCS producers trading 3x-4x EBITDA and 17%-34% FCF yields with 30 years of proved reserves #OOTT https://t.co/thYlzlEU4v

---

Reflect on that: due to ongoing apathy towards Canada at near WTI/WCS strip pricing some companies can keep production flat and also buy back a 1/3 of their shares per year out of FCF...basically privatizing in ~3 years, 10x over before they exhaust their proved reserves #OOTT


Summary: Bullish oil: global onshore surplus down 94% YTD + US deficits widening = multi-year bull market; dips are noise.

US / global oil inventory trajectories remain bullish...the global onshore surplus according to @kpler is now down 94% YTD to 12MM Bbls while US deficits widened this week. Any weakness from short-term political pressure is a tiny blip in what is a multi-year bull market for oil. https://t.co/4r10uiougX


Summary: Bullish natural gas: inventories drawing when they should be building, forecasting epic summer 2022 storage draws.

Inventories drawing when they need to be building...Summer '22 draws are going to be epic. https://t.co/exQlgFurt5


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector on potential AB royalty holiday + CBR capacity compressing WCS differentials to a '2 handle' in Q1/19.

RBC quality research piece out this morning floating a great idea: temporary AB royalty holiday that could remove 190k bbl/d of excess CDN supply and cut AB storage glut by 25% in 4 months. This + 440k bbl/d '19 CBR = "2 handle" WCS diffs in Q1/19? Time to own Canada energy IMO.


Summary: Bullish oil in multi-year bull market; energy stocks still a generational long despite YTD rally.

Oil is in a multi-year bull market and despite the impressive rally YTD, energy stocks in my opinion still represent a generational opportunity. Hear why in a presentation I recorded yesterday: https://t.co/raVGWCPdnd https://t.co/Kd0dPtg7Ay


Summary: Strongly bullish energy sector on cheap valuations and oil macro tailwinds; generalists haven't even piled in yet.

With energy stocks ripping you would naturally think that generalists had finally shown up to the party...even if a little fashionably late. Trading desks report: still not yet! With cheap valuations and oil macro tailwinds...if you're not long now you never will be. https://t.co/84FbdizDmU


Summary: Long oil and oil stocks on impending demand normalization, OPEC spare capacity exhaustion, and severe undervaluation with egregious free cash flow generation.

With each passing day we get closer to global herd immunity, closer to demand normalization, closer to the exhaustion  of OPEC spare capacity, and closer to the beginning of the oil rip show. Oil stocks remain severely mispriced...the generalist return and stock rerating cometh. https://t.co/mUJ3FovEdY

---

I'm optimistic that Q1 press releases will spell it out for generalist investors: free cash flow generation at the current oil price is egregious! Here's an example from this morning...$1.8BN in free cash flow at $55WTI over 5 years versus a $1.6BN market cap!!! https://t.co/WmbQdO0vp8


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy equities: extreme sector apathy has left oil stocks stupidly mispriced; 22% FCF yield example supports deep undervaluation thesis.

Day 2 of positive divergence b/w WTI and CDN energy stocks. Are investors realizing how stupidly mispriced oil equities had become due to the highest level of apathy towards the sector in history? #OOTT

---

Peak apathy ex #3: a $1.3BN CDN oil producer (40% Eagleford) is trading at a 22% FCF yield at $60WTI (2019/2020 strip ~$57 currently). With 10 years of proved reserves one could hedge the next 2 years of production, keep production flat, and buyback close to 50% of the S/O #OOTT https://t.co/4LeEsxTf3D


Summary: $70 WTI is the new floor; energy stocks continue to rally as investor confidence in current oil prices builds into 2H22 OPEC spare-capacity exhaustion.

The global oil surplus to the '17-'19 average is now down 82% to only 40MM Bbls according to @Kpler. $70WTI sure feels like the new floor for oil and is a healthy level to stay at until 2H'22 when OPEC spare capacity exhaustion becomes more obvious to the masses. https://t.co/NgnND0FV1g

---

Reminder: we do NOT need higher oil prices for energy stocks to continue to rally IMO...we need only investors to believe in the oil price that they already see on their screens. https://t.co/0wxIB0XWV4


Summary: Strongly bullish energy sector on 30%+ FCF yields and multi-bagger potential, with Q1'21 as first proof point.

In honour of @EnergyAspects boldly reaffirming their "$80WTI in 2022" forecast this morning I present my "dare to dream" graphs.  With free cashflow yields of 30%+ the multi-bagger potential of the energy sector is obvious. Q1'21 results = first demonstration of FCF potential. https://t.co/dF6XKDiPIY


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil sands / heavy oil: strategic importance of Canadian supply rising materially, rerate begins tomorrow on 15%+ FCF yields and 50+ years of reserves.

Canadian oil sands/heavy oil basket: CNQ, CVE, ATH

Keystone XL and Line 3 read through? The strategic importance of Canadian supply just went up materially. Oil sands/ CDN heavy oil rerate begins tomorrow. 15%+ fcf yields with 50+ years of reserves.

TRUMP SAYS HE HAS INFORMED ALL APPROPRIATE U.S. AGENCIES "TO EXPEDITE APPROVALS OF THE OIL PIPELINES CURRENTLY IN THE PERMITTING PROCESS IN TEXAS AND VARIOUS OTHER STATES"


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy (SU, CNQ) on attractive valuations, improving takeaway, and better 2021 outlook; fully invested in Canada.

Will energy investors look through the next few months towards a significantly better outlook in '21? Will US investors ever return to Canada? Yes to both! Morgan Stanley (presumably for a US client) massive buyer of SU and CNQ past 2 days. CDN energy = best upside post the storm https://t.co/tGcbOxIPKu

---

Looks like this mystery was finally solved! So much for Canadian oil companies not being attractive to foreign investors! We are 100% invested in Canada given highly attractive valuations and improving takeaway capacity and it's interesting that Saudi Arabia agrees with us #OOTT https://t.co/1UsEPXAIJj


Morgan Stanley (presumably for a US client) massive buyer of SU and CNQ past 2 days


We are 100% invested in Canada given highly attractive valuations and improving takeaway capacity


Summary: Bullish TVE: at $70 WTI, 5-year FCF equals 1.5x current market cap (33% yield), with dividend/buyback catalyst in early 2022.

TVE: what they said -> leverage goal to be reached in early 2022 = dividend + buyback then. $70WTI = FCF of ~$350MM = 16% dividend at 50% of FCF. What they forgot to say: $1.7BN of FCF over 5 years at $70WTI = 1.5x their current market cap (33% FCF yield) + how much to investors? https://t.co/g68nBXC1O8


Summary: Energy stocks are a generational buying opportunity.

Energy stocks: a generational opportunity https://t.co/ftLhUuTasz


Summary: Bullish US E&P sector at 15%+ FCF yields; massive buybacks possible at $60 WTI strip could create 50% share count reduction over 2 years.

2019+2020 WTI strip now averaging $60/bbl...many E&P's trading at 15%+ FCF yields...time for MEANINGFUL buybacks if balance sheets allow...some could lock in pricing certainty and retire 50% of their shares outstanding over the next 2 years. TIME TO ACT. #OOTT https://t.co/7BePpy1pkC


Summary: Bullish energy stocks: sector is deeply under-owned, stocks need 50%+ recovery, trading at steep discount to historical valuations.

It's amazing that many energy stocks need to rally by 50%+ to get back to where they were in November '18 when oil was last ~$64.  Even then they would still trade at only 10%-15%+ free cash flow yields and ~50% of historical valuations #OOTT

---

IF this is the turn in sentiment (it would only have required a 42% oil price rally!), and only time will tell if this was the case, don't underestimate how under-owned this sector is and how low the bases are that stocks need to recover from #OOTT


Summary: Long Canadian oil equities: 25%+ FCF yields make further multiple compression unlikely and meaningful selling improbable from here.

@ChrisKostopoul1 CDN oil stocks are trading at the cheapest valuations that I have ever seen so further multiple compression seems unlikely. Once you hit 25%+ free cash flow yields...tough to imagine meaningful selling emerges today.

---

@ChrisKostopoul1 What the Line 3 delay will achieve is deferring the return of some US capital flows back to Canada. The AB curtailments are generally disliked south of the border despite the obvious benefits. Longer to wait for the CDN E&P rerate.


Summary: Bullish Baytex and Athabasca Oil; dismisses bankruptcy risk, says analysts using stale $52 oil vs $60 reality means Q1/Q2 upward earnings revisions are coming.

@JohnTavaresJr I have recently posted a graph showing debt:cash flow levels for both companies you mentioned. It should be clear neither face bankruptcy risk. Most analysts are using a stale strip price deck. $60/bbl vs $52 makes a world of difference. Q1/Q2 = impending upward revisions.

@ericnuttall Other analysts express less bullish sentiment & concern about high debt levels at CDN midcap oil companies & advise against purchasing the stock of your top recommendations like Baytex & Athabasca Oil because of their precarious finances & bankruptcy risk. Why the disconnect?


Summary: Bullish on Canadian oil equities as the best global value play in a multi-year oil bull market: cheapest valuations, longest reserves, best FCF for dividends/buybacks.

I continue to search the world for undervalued oil stocks that most benefit from the multi-year oil bull market. Where do I keep ending up? Right at home: cheapest valuations, lowest declines, longest reserve lives, and best free cashflow profiles for juicy dividends and buybacks https://t.co/smjJE9Hvw1


Summary: Bullish energy sector into year-end; generalist funds underweight and missing the rally creates continued upside pressure.

Why won't energy continue to rally into year end??? So few people are properly positioned and if I was a generalist fund manager underweight energy I would be terrified at the moment after missing the 35% November rally and watching it continue into December...


Summary: Targets WTI $70 by September; holds Canadian small-cap oil names and expects energy sector to re-rate on Q1 return-of-capital messaging.

Canadian small cap oil companies: ATH, BTE, WCP

In January with WTI at $53 we amassed strategic stakes in several CDN small cap oil co's believing we would see $60 by June. Today with WTI at $63, it feels like I should be thinking $70 by September. In that context valuations remain very compelling. https://t.co/82aPHwDS41

---

Optimism is growing in the sustainability of higher oil prices. When will energy stocks begin to reflect this??? I'm hopeful that Q1 "return of capital" messaging will be the catalyst and reinforce how much free cash flow the sector is capable of generating. https://t.co/Ma6uXdbZMK


I'm hopeful that Q1 'return of capital' messaging will be the catalyst and reinforce how much free cash flow the sector is capable of generating


Summary: Policy-driven US production cut of ~3MM bbl/d would surge oil to $100+ and rocket Canadian oil sands equities.

Canadian oil sands stocks: CNQ, CVE, ATH

@ianbremmer 100% utter stupidity. US production would fall by ~3MM bbl/d in the first year alone and many 100,000’s of thousands of oil workers would be laid off. Oil would surge to $100+/bbl easily. The positive? CDN oil sand stocks would skyrocket! #OOTT

One of the worst policy suggestions I’ve seen from any candidate.

Would be an economic disaster...and simultaneously bring about major additional climate damage (by increasing demand for coal).


Summary: Strongly bullish energy equities at $70 WTI; cheap valuations in a multi-year structural bull market make the dip a buying opportunity.

Perhaps I'm completely desensitized to days like today after watching energy stocks fall by as much as 50% in a single day in 2020 but...how can you NOT be excited buying names at 2.0x EV/CF and 25%+ FCF yields at $70WTI in a multi-year structural bull market?!?!?!?!?!?!? https://t.co/wWfXT5hllN

---

Canvassed the street to buy 1MM shares of a stock down 6%. "No selling in hand" replied 3 brokers. Today is more about a buyers strike/consolidation phase versus panic selling . Still a down day but calm and orderly...what you want to see in a sell-off.


Summary: Contrarian long energy stocks; analyst apathy/bearishness signals opportunity.

Has energy sentiment fully turned? Not quite yet. I just left a meeting with an E&P analyst in which I asked him "how do I make money today in energy stocks?" His reply: "do you short?" Pervasive and lingering bearishness/apathy = opportunity #OOTT


Summary: US E&P capital discipline (lower drilling, buybacks) seen as macro/micro positive for the sector; RES signals activity decline in 2H19.

US E&P capital discipline continuing: RES saying "indications that drilling and completion activities will decline during the 2H of 2019." Q2 earnings reporting theme to be lowering of growth estimates and increasing share buybacks? Good for the micro and the macro #OOTT https://t.co/oGCvpSEU4L


Summary: Bullish Canadian E&P sector on record-low valuations, inflecting sentiment, and incoming M&A-focused Imperial Oil leadership.

Is M&A about to pick up in Canada? Rich Kruger of Imperial Oil retiring in 3 months...being replaced by the former head of global M&A at Exxon.  Valuations for CDN E&P's are at their lowest in history and sentiment is only just beginning to inflect. Happy hunting! #OOTT https://t.co/lyQVc63Wep

---

IMO Q3 conf call on M&A saying they will be cash taxable in 2021 & interested in acquiring long life, high quality resource. If only there was a midcap oilsand producer with massive tax losses, 68 years of reserves trading at a discount to PDP reserve value & a 25%+ FCF yield... https://t.co/dFC2Xs0WUb


Fear of missing out = next ingredient for energy stocks rallying into year end

Summary: Long energy sector into year-end; underweight managers will be forced to chase, driving FOMO-led rally.

Live shot of a generalist fund manager still underweight the energy sector who was hoping for a pullback today.  "Fear of missing out" = next ingredient for energy stocks rallying into year end. https://t.co/xk3ygahlwi


Summary: Bullish CVE and Canadian energy on strengthening WCS differentials via CBR ramp and Line 3; multi-bagger opportunity from peak pessimism.

CVE confirming WCS differentials to significantly strengthen next year with CBR ramp to 450k bbl/d in '19 and L3 in Q4'19 = rail economic $ differential in 2019 and sub $20/bbl diffs in 2020. Peak pessimism = multi-bagger opportunities in Canada


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector: 75% FCF return pledge implies 22% dividend yield and re-rating from 2.6x to 5-6x EV/CF.

To CDN energy co's...this is your competition for capital: a US shale co. just went to 75% of FCF to "returns" ->translates to an 11% yield this year and 16% in 2023. Stock up 7%. Time to get serious and get more aggressive NOW! 75% is the minimum industry standard going forward.

---

With the average energy company trading at a 30% free cashflow yield at $100WTI, a pledge of 75% of FCF to "returns" = 22% '23 potential dividend yield...rerating 2.6x EV/CF back closer to 5x-6x??? https://t.co/PLKg8vvfLk


Summary: Bullish Canadian E&Ps: trading at discount to proved/PDP reserve value with buybacks as catalyst.

Reminiscing the good old days when E&P's used to trade at a premium to 2P reserve value (proved+probable).  Sadly, due to a temporary lack of sector interest CDN E&P's are now trading at a discount to proved and in many cases to blowdown (PDP) value. Buybacks!!! #OOTT https://t.co/6vnZV43FHm


Summary: Bullish energy sector and WTI crude into 2021; massive institutional underweight + forced buying stampede expected to drive sector doubling or more.

When the Vice Chairman of Blackstone calls for $65WTI generalist institutional investors listen. How much longer will they remain massively underweight a sector that could double (or more) in 2021???  The inevitable buying stampede will be like elephants through a keyhole. https://t.co/XygmR4iNlH

---

Just how underweight are large generalist institutional investors??? Here is the $136BN Fidelity Contrafund...0.3% weight in energy. To get to just a market weight they would have to buy all of my fund's holdings 15X over...and that is only one fund! https://t.co/CerRluXVE2


Summary: $100 WTI floor intact even with recession; Canadian energy stocks deeply undervalued at that oil price on FCF and EV/CF metrics.

Worried about the impact of a recession on oil demand/inventories? Energy Aspects is modelling recession in US and Europe in '23...and STILL has inventories falling by 0.4MM bbl/d next year. Challenges to supply growth to outweigh any demand weakness. ~$100WTI floor still valid.

---

What does this mean for energy stocks after the worst week since March 2020? At $100WTI, we model the avg. CDN energy co. is able to privatize with just 3.4 years of free cashflow and trades at 2.4x EV/CF vs. 15 years of stay flat inventory = 13 years of 29% "returns" for free. https://t.co/LKrM0H4z6C


Summary: Strongly bullish on energy sector: universally positive earnings, strong capital return guidance, and glaringly cheap valuations with 15%+ FCF yields.

There has not been a time in my 18 year career when energy earnings releases have been so universally positive, guidance on return of capital has been so uniform, and stocks in my opinion so glaringly cheap. 15%+ FCF yields are now the norm (for now)!


Summary: Bullish on oil and energy stocks even amid recession concerns.

Can you believe in recession yet still be bullish on oil and wildly excited about energy stocks? Read the answer in my 27th column for the @financialpost. https://t.co/fDWlbTdvFv


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil stocks; changing the narrative will re-rate trading multiples higher.

Change the narrative = change the trading multiples of CDN Oil stocks #OOTT

My interview with @BNNBloomberg:

https://t.co/d1OXTDE20x

@AndrewBellBNN


Summary: Remains bullish on energy stocks despite market selloff; free cashflow intact and many trading <2x EV/CF at $100.

Energy stocks getting caught up in the overall market contagion. With stocks -4%, what isn't changing that much today? The free cashflow hitting the corporate bank accounts and daily multiple compression that brings. With many stocks trading <2x EV/CF at $100, we remain bullish! https://t.co/DbRbWn81NE


Summary: Long energy stocks: sector priced for high-$50s oil vs $81 spot, with OPEC spare capacity exhausted and demand recovering to pre-COVID levels.

Trusted advisor @EnergyAspects on Iran:  earliest return of barrels is Q3'22 and Iran may not even want a deal. My take? The world needs the bbls by then anyway with exhausted OPEC spare capacity + demand back to pre-covid levels. Energy stocks discounting high $50's vs. $81 spot https://t.co/t6I2YzNGO8


Summary: Bullish on an unnamed cash-rich sector offering 21x S&P dividend yield; calls it a generational opportunity.

Imagine a sector that is so awash in cash that it could become debt free in less than a year, and then pay a dividend yield 21x higher than the S&P500. Would you call that a "generational opportunity"??? https://t.co/80mPCejG6u


Summary: Bullish energy stocks: Saudi supply shock is a lasting catalyst to revive fund flows into a sector with strong fundamentals priced for dead.

5 minute take on why Saudi's supply shock is not just a one day event but rather a much needed catalyst to bring fund flows back into a sector that was being priced for dead despite strong fundamentals #OOTT https://t.co/rGrYfNov6m https://t.co/2Q9HaPEpYl

I'll be on BNN at 2pm today to discuss why Saturday marks the beginning of what will be a very powerful rally in energy stocks.  Today is just the beginning. The market is just starting to figure that out. #OOTT https://t.co/lAN8X1a4GU https://t.co/5grTeBwTki


Summary: Rotating out of large-cap Permian into Canadian midcap oil companies trading at all-time lows despite WTI +20% YTD; actively buying alongside aligned management.

Yesterday I was selling large cap permian to buy CDN midcap oil co's (many of which are making all-time lows despite WTI +20% YTD). Turns out I was buying alongside the CEO of one of my purchases. He personally owns ~9% of the company already and with the stock -69% over... #OOTT

---

...the past year is feeling the pain.  Total alignment.  His reply then to my email was enlightening and a reminder that to mentally survive this bear market we all need to have a superior psychology. This too shall pass. #OOTT https://t.co/ITiZ7nCSFk


Summary: Energy stocks still meaningfully mispriced with multi-bagger upside in a post-COVID world.

Those few of us who were seeing through the fear and calling for better days are not so lonely anymore...yet stocks have yet to reflect a post-COVID world.  Energy stocks are still meaningfully mispriced with multi-bagger status intact. https://t.co/oBnuVofpeu


Summary: Bullish energy stocks that survive near-term; prices at bankruptcy levels offer upside once COVID resolves and a rebound follows.

4) Closing point: while oil could fall further waiting on COVID-19 resolution many energy stocks are being priced for bankruptcy down 80%+ YTD. One's goal should be to invest in companies that can make it to the other side (there are many) and benefit from the inevitable rebound

1) Energy stocks have completely diverged from reality. The "walking dead" are trading down as much as heavily hedged companies with manageable debt levels. I'm getting many panicky emails a day asking "will XYZ survive the next 6 months??" given 20% a day price declines... https://t.co/a8y1TMQQJe


Summary: Bullish crude: 3.3mm bbl/d supply tightening from Iran/KSA/Libya/VZ with no demand decel per XOM/MPC/PSX confirms oil market is tight.

Iran exports down 1.7mm bbl/d since sanctions announced. Misguided 1.8mm bbl/d surge by KSA/UAE/Russia corrected by 1.3mm bbl/d. CDN curtailments of 0.3mm bbl/d to last to late Q2. Aggregate of 3.3mm bbl/d of tightening = lots of margin for US growth and demand deceleration #OOTT

---

Add on continued losses from Libya and a likely 0.2+ mm bbl/d loss from VZ this year. Oh, and XOM, MPC, and PSX all said last week no signs of demand growth deceleration.


industry='Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing'


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector; stocks need 100–150% rally to recover Jan levels as oil demand rebounds to 90% of pre-pandemic.

The BNN curse is broken! I'll be on @marketcall today at 12ET to discuss multibagger opportunities in the Canadian energy sector. Oil demand is now back to 90% of pre-pandemic levels yet many stocks need to rally by 100%-150% to get back to where they were in January. Tune in! https://t.co/Hf2lUMFZn3

---

Was great to be on BNN with energy stocks in the green...here is a link to the full show: https://t.co/Ncv6PMRA5f https://t.co/QxCkWT3vbu


Summary: Deploying cash into energy sector heading into year-end; OPEC production deferral seen as green light for generalists to go market-weight.

With RSI's reading 75+ in many names we should expect a temporary pullback. For those who missed this month's rip show use weakness to your advantage as a consensus OPEC production deferral next week = green light for generalists to sector weight up heading into year end. https://t.co/NMixK6d5QN

---

Regardless of which way Thursday's OPEC+ meeting goes (worst case bullish draws get delayed by a few months), the window for generalists to go at least market weight the sector heading into year-end is quickly closing...I'll be deploying my 23% cash position in the coming days. https://t.co/4WUOzetHv0


Summary: Long midcap oil equities in Q1/23 on China reopening, SPR tailwind, and buybacks; bullish on WTI at $80.

First day of trading for '23 and the scoreboard has been reset to zero. My Q1/23 playbook remains the same: long midcap oils with a view to China gradual reopening, SPR over, and ongoing meaningful buybacks (even at $80WTI for now). No services/natural gas. We remain bullish!


Summary: Bullish crude oil to $50+ next year; oil stocks offer 10%+ FCF yields at current strip, presenting a buying opportunity.

Thank BP's peak demand scenario and the renewables headline bombardment  for crushing sentiment and giving you free optionality to better crude macro + oil prices next year ($50+)...some oil stocks now trading at 10%+ free cash flow yields at today's 2021 WTI strip ($43). https://t.co/v01RHgvUDd


I'm topping up positions trading <1.8x EV/CF

Summary: Topping up energy stock positions at <1.8x EV/CF; bullish on energy with Brent fair value seen at $108 vs stocks discounting <$60.

@CornerstoneOil saying Brent fair value is $108. Energy stocks discounting <$60. In between sandcastles and water slides, I’m topping up positions trading <1.8x EV/CF. This too shall pass!


Summary: Bullish energy sector: valuations attractive, sentiment near bottom, many names still down 60%+ despite WTI +26% YTD; catalysts ahead for a sharp reversal.

1) A big mistake energy investors made in January 2016 (when energy stocks bottomed and began to rally after a massive selloff) was believing that they had "missed it" when stocks rallied by 20%+ in a short period. By the end of the year my fund had rallied by ~143%.... #OOTT https://t.co/lIs66acVrZ

---

2)There are parallels to today even though valuations are more attractive and sentiment is far worse. With many names still down 60%+ (with WTI +26% YTD) things can turn quickly. Fundamentals are on our side. It is just sentiment that needs to inflect. Many catalysts ahead! #OOTT


Summary: Bullish small-cap energy stocks for the year ahead; sector is misunderstood and offers significant upside.

This clip shows just how misunderstood many small cap energy stocks are and why they offer so much upside in the year ahead. @AndrewBellBNN @BNNBloomberg  https://t.co/dSIjxybpGE

---

Why do I generally focus on smaller companies? That is where the best opportunities are! Fewer eyeballs looking = less efficiencies and more multibagger potential when interest level positively inflects (like in 2021...). Smaller company size does not = a riskier business!!! https://t.co/TbIIS7pzOO


Summary: Bullish WTI to $60-65 by May on Saudi discipline + OECD inventory draws; implies 100%+ upside in E&P equities on high FCF yields.

Saudi discipline -> imminent OECD inventory drawdowns -> $60-$65/WTI by May -> over 100% upside in many E&P's given 20%-30%+ FCF yields. #OOTT https://t.co/31kC82CtDg


Oil is in a multi-year bull market and energy stocks represent a generational opportunity amidst the fog of energy ignorance

Summary: Bullish oil and energy stocks: supply constraints from ESG pressures outpace demand concerns, prices can rise even post-peak demand.

Peak demand is likely 10+ years away yet the fear of peak demand is leading to the reality of peak supply.  ESG pressures are impacting production more than demand...prices can still rise even post-peak = this is NOT a sunset industry. https://t.co/A4VwFxfnxY


Summary: Long E&P sector on extreme FCF yield dislocation vs WTI; PE buyouts seen as inevitable catalyst for rerating.

2019 WTI now at $59/bbl...up 25% YTD. E&P's in many cases are lagging the YTD WTI move by 30% and at $60/bbl are trading at free cash flow yields of 25%+. When will the madness end? When will PE step in and buy up 10-30 year long 25%+ annuities?  #OOTT

---

This is a 2020 free cash flow yield matrix for a midcap CDN heavy oil producer...33% free cash flow yield with 34 years of proved production at $60WTI.  E&P stocks cannot trade at such ridiculous levels forever and while apathy remains patience will eventually be rewarded #OOTT https://t.co/4gQMEOdEXZ


Summary: Bullish on oil to $180 and energy stocks; falling inventories and OPEC spare capacity cited.

Energy investors need not f.e.a.r. a recession. Hear why in this 30 minute recorded conversation with Amrita Sen, energy analyst Rockstar of @EnergyAspects. We discuss falling inventories, OPEC spare capacity, $180 oil, and my outlook for energy stocks. https://t.co/oGgsaoMypZ https://t.co/4D6T7HpqQl


Summary: Bullish energy stocks: mispriced at decade-lows due to propaganda-driven underinvestment; supply crisis expected within 5 years.

It is intellectually-stymied and fiction-based environmental propaganda like the below that is leading to energy stocks trading at their lowest levels in 10+ years AND the underinvestment in future production that WILL lead to a supply crisis in the coming 5 years @CanadaAction

Get your money out of fossil fuels while you can.

These investments are going to plummet when the market finally figures out where we're headed.

#divest #divestment #climatechange
https://t.co/TtDTMtGtOC


Summary: Bullish on the semiconductor/tech sector; buy any dip as new money rotates downcap and FOMO kicks in.

Brokers actively looking for blocks. New guys coming back to the sector and going downcap. This is exactly what I want to see. Big run in some so maybe a pullback (or not) but things feeling very healthy. Buy any dip.  The FOMO is real!!!! https://t.co/rZovj5E2Il


Summary: Bullish oil & gas equities: near-debt-free sector with 27% FCF yields at $100 WTI, rising shareholder returns via buybacks and dividends in 2023.

With the sector nearing debt free levels, our "ask" of our holdings is simple: 50% of free cashflow now to shareholder returns (buyback + dividends) and 75% in 2023 once debt is fully paid off. With average FCF yields of 27% in '23 at $100WTI, it is investor's time to get paid. https://t.co/YqaG4Yw36O


Summary: Bullish on small caps for outsized returns vs large caps.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF for US small caps

I never thought I’d be disappointed to be up “only” ~11% in a day...large caps the first to run but small caps are where the outsized returns will be found. https://t.co/zsZvI4Ihzg


Summary: Bullish on energy stocks; cites Montney producer at 40% FCF yield as evidence of extreme cheapness.

How cheap are energy stocks??? I just met with a $500MM Montney producer trading at a 2023 40% FCF yield (to their EV). They think they can keep production flat for 10 years = ability to privatize and payoff all their debt 4 times over before their project starts to decline…


Summary: Bullish SU, CNQ, CVE on massive FCF generation enabling near-term balance sheet repair and unprecedented buybacks at $65 WTI.

At the current oil price ($65WTI) SU and CNQ could privatize in 5 years using free cash flow while CVE could do it in less than 4. Some small caps 3 years or less.  Balance sheet repair now...massive buybacks in 1-2 Q's once leverage is in check??? Unprecedented.


SU and CNQ could privatize in 5 years using free cash flow while CVE could do it in less than 4


$80 Brent before Saudi meaningfully reacts is my call. S.A. needs higher oil prices.

Summary: Bullish crude: calls $80 Brent before Saudi supply response materializes; SA needs higher prices, US restraint + China deal support.

Brent crude futures proxy on Yahoo Finance

$80 Brent before Saudi meaningfully reacts is my call. Actions more important than words and INTENT trumps all...S.A. needs higher oil prices.  VZ at multi-decade low at the same time + US production restraint + China trade deal in Summer...wow. #OOTT

SAUDI ARABIA IS WILLING TO RAISE OIL OUTPUT TO COMPENSATE FOR POTENTIAL LOSS OF SUPPLY IF U.S. ENDS IRAN OIL WAIVERS BUT KINGDOM MUST SEE IMPACT ON OIL MARKET FIRST - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH SAUDI THINKING

#oott


Summary: Long Canadian heavy oil stocks on TMX pipeline approval and imminent construction start providing a massive sentiment boost.

Canadian heavy oil stocks: ATH, CVE, CNQ

Excellent sleuthing by @geoffreymorgan finding evidence that not only will TMX get approved but work is likely to begin before the election. Given how dour sentiment is a sign of imminent construction = massive sentiment boost for heavy oil stocks #OOTT https://t.co/8dULya9NBg


Summary: Bullish Canadian heavy oil producers: Pemex + Venezuela export declines tighten WCS differentials, boosting FCF.

Canadian heavy oil producers: CNQ, CVE, ATH, BTE

Great news for Canadian heavy oil producers...Pemex forecasting a 70% drop in heavy oil exports (our biggest competitor) between 2021-2023 (US currently imports ~750k bbl/d from Mexico). This + Venezuelan declines = tighter WCS differentials = more FCF.
https://t.co/85b6ay5bIH


Summary: Bullish energy sector; Abqaiq damage worse than thought, multi-month outage, more upside after profit-taking exhausted.

Rockstar oil analyst @CroftHelima : "damage at Abqaiq much more extensive than originally thought, multi-month outage, likely US military response on Iranian targets." This is only the beginning. Energy stocks to rally much further once initial profit taking is exhausted #OOTT

---

@CroftHelima Not to be outdone respected barrel counter @michael___tran : "Saudi has 27 days of inventories...if 2/3 of Abqaiq remains offline = bone dry inventories in 1.5 months. Net spec length in oil lower today than when WTI = $27." Again, today is only the beginning #OOTT


Summary: Long energy equities as a generational opportunity; massive FCF yields available for free due to market ignorance of the sector.

What excites me??? Getting something for nothing. Energy ignorance provides the opportunity to get in some cases decades worth of FCF equivalent to a 40% FCF yield (ie. potential dividend) at $100WTI...for free. That's why I think energy stocks still = a generational opportunity.


Oil sell off a gift to investors… the opportunity in energy stocks following the worst selloff since March 2020

Summary: Bullish on energy stocks; views recent oil selloff as a buying opportunity.

"Oil sell off a gift to investors: Nuttall." Here is a video I recorded with Larysa Harapyn of the @financialpost to discuss the opportunity in energy stocks following the worst selloff since March 2020:
https://t.co/xOlb3Zo6gE https://t.co/GMgB8AOYhI


Summary: Bullish oil stocks; macro backdrop (normalizing inventories, growing US deficit) makes recent weakness a buying opportunity.

Macro check-in: no signs of distress as global oil inventories close to approaching normal and US oil/products deficit continues to grow. OPEC noise is just that and the weakness in oil stocks is a huge opportunity  IMO. https://t.co/icDZesdDEr


I've been buying some natural gas stocks for the first time in many years in the Ninepoint Energy Fund. 3 month tactical call

Summary: Tactically long natural gas stocks for 3 months on cold weather demand spike, despite multi-year sub-$3/mcf supply overhang.

Energy investors should pay attention: very impactful to energy (mainly natural gas) demand. I’ve been buying some natural gas stocks for the first time in many years in the Ninepoint Energy Fund. 3 month tactical call as multi-year abundance of <$3/mcf supply still exists #OOTT

Nov 04:

A STAGGERING 1,204 U.S. SITES RECORDED THEIR COLDEST-EVER OCTOBER TEMPS LAST MONTH

The sun is suffering its deepest solar min of the past 100+ years -- the jet stream is 'buckling' as a result, diverting brutal Arctic air anomalously-far south:

https://t.co/z91xSMlD2s


Summary: Bullish US energy sector: 5% S&P weight forces generalist fund inflows + buybacks.

The S&P 500 Energy Sector Index looks like it is about to break the Bloomberg Relative Rotation Graph! https://t.co/DtenxTPTRy

---

With energy now surpassing the psychologically important 5% weighting threshold of the S&P500, I don't believe generalist Fund Managers can ignore the sector any longer. Positive sector funds flow + meaningful share buybacks coming soon??? https://t.co/LVG59Jiujf


Summary: Oil inventory normalization may drag WTI to $60 by summer; Canadian energy stocks are multi-baggers at current levels on 10% FCF yield.

Real-time satellite imagery shows the crude oil inventory overhang from COVID is quickly normalizing (and pace increasing)...now down 57% from the high. Could we reach normalized inventory levels (and $60WTI) by Summer??? https://t.co/q5rlbGUNHE

---

What upside is there in Canadian energy stocks if/when oil hits $60WTI in 2021? Start here: what is a reasonable FCF yield? 10%? If so many stocks are multi-baggers from current levels. https://t.co/2cMZaFI4qh


Summary: Bullish natural gas on potential record 560Bcf draw from Texas freeze-offs, ~50% above prior all-time record.

Reason to be bullish natural gas: given the forecast for heavy freezing rain in Texas, if meaningful freeze offs/shut ins do occur, National Bank forecasts a potential 560Bcf draw next week...~50% higher than the prior all-time record! Got gas??? https://t.co/JZQmVvrelB


Summary: Bullish on oil E&P equities: $11 find cost vs $70+ oil = ~$25 net margin, stocks trading at ~16% FCF yield with buyback catalyst.

Why do I like the oil business? Companies can find and develop a barrel of oil for $11, sell it for over $70, and net a profit of ~$25. Then because of equity mispricing take the free cashflow and buy back their stock trading at a ~16% FCF yield. https://t.co/1BDKg4FIWV


Summary: Bullish US natural gas as the dominant fuel to meet 31% electricity demand growth over the next 15 years.

After decades of flattish growth in demand, US electricity demand is forecast to grow by 31% over the next 15 years. Natural gas has gone from a bridge fuel to THE fuel of choice to satisfy much of this growth going forward (affordable, available, reliable). https://t.co/MLxTcJpKSA


Summary: Canadian oil/liquids-rich gas companies with strong FCF returns are profoundly undervalued at current oil prices above $100 CAD/bbl.

With oil trading firmly > $100CDN/bbl, we believe that energy stocks (in particular select Canadian oil/liquids rich gas companies with decades of stay-flat inventory and 75% or more of their record free cashflow going to shareholder returns) remain profoundly undervalued. https://t.co/706g1w1lIA


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy stocks: outperforming major US indices YTD yet sentiment remains low, implying more upside ahead.

Canadian energy stocks year-to-date are now outperforming the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and the DJIA. We are winning, yet no one wants to believe and sentiment seemingly remains very low??? https://t.co/YBlg5Jfdls


Summary: Energy sector at most oversold levels since COVID 2020 after brutal tax-loss selling; implied mean-reversion long.

Energy stocks are the most technically oversold since the early days of COVID in 2020! Tax loss selling season has been vicious, and reports of energy being a source of funding for other sectors (ie. fartcoin, quantum computing, AI, etc). https://t.co/JQBEwxn92y


Summary: Bullish Canadian oil equities; tariff impact (~7% cashflow hit) already more than priced in after poor stock performance.

Tariff headlines are grinding sentiment lower and lower, and it feels like all of Canada is for sale. Just a reminder, a 10% tariff on Canadian oil would only lower cashflow by about 7%, and given poor stock performance we believe is MORE than priced into stocks. https://t.co/sV6i7vugXF


Summary: Bearish Canadian natural gas producers on self-inflicted oversupply; prefer US gas exposure instead.

First Trust Natural Gas ETF tracks US nat gas producers

This is why CDN natural gas producers can't have nice things: self-inflicted oversupply that floods one of the already weakest gas hubs in North America with unnecessary growth, "chasing the dream" of LNG/AI demand growth. Brutal. This is why we prefer the US for gas exposure! https://t.co/NUgOA2VXJ8


Summary: Long energy sector: record FCF, accelerating buybacks post-1H capex, and buyback-driven re-rating will reward patient holders.

PSA: Energy stocks are now outperforming tech year-to-date. It's time for the chronic pessimism and morosity to end. Companies are generating record free cashflow and with 1H heavy spend over are buying back their stock hand over fist, and the proof is in the filings. We believe significant share repurchases, will in time inevitably force a re-rating in valuations. Patience has and will we believe be rewarded.


Summary: Bullish Canadian oilsands/heavy oil stocks: TMX linefill ~April catalyzes sentiment shift via lower WCS discount and reduced volatility.

Canadian oilsands/heavy oil stocks: CNQ, CVE, ATH, BTE

TMX linefill in ~April in my opinion will act as a turning point for sentiment towards Canadian oilsand/heavy oil stocks, by not just lowering the WCS discount to ~$10-12/bbl (from $20+) but as importantly greatly reduce WCS volatility, a major reason why foreign investors have avoided the patch. Next up: Federal election in 2025 (or sooner).
https://t.co/zuhdNl2huC


Summary: Bullish oil stocks: biggest opportunity since COVID lows, tipping point approaching, meaningful upside ahead.

Join me at 12ET today on @marketcall. I'll explain why oil stocks represent the biggest opportunity since the COVID lows of April 2020, why we are soon approaching the tipping point for oil, and why we see meaningful upside ahead.


Summary: Remains bullish US natural gas and US nat-gas equities; LNG demand growth drives thesis as 2026 strip approaches $4/mcf marginal cost.

We always just hope for normal Winter weather as our bullish natural gas thesis revolves around the meaningful increase in LNG demand. With the US 2026 strip again approaching $4/mcf, our estimate for the marginal cost of production, we remain bullish on US natural gas stocks: https://t.co/ILV11yvsRZ


Summary: Bullish oil (+$14/bbl undervaluation) and energy equities on false narratives; US shale twilight, strong OPEC+ cohesion, and normal 2025 demand growth.

I was going to let this go but those who feed ongoing false narratives that directly impact sentiment, the desire to own energy equities, and oil stock valuations must be held to account. In September it was suggested by Bloomberg that the construction of the Matterhorn pipeline would lead to a surge in Permian OIL production. Not NGL's. Oil. This surge would "come at an awful time" for OPEC+, and fueled the false narrative that such further market share loss would lead to the end of the OPEC+ deal to curtail volumes leading to a price crash. Our due diligence could not corroborate this thesis last September.

We now have the official data (https://t.co/W8ZA88Btv8):
September Texas + New Mexico Oil Production: 7.89MM Bbl/d
December Texas + New Mexico Oil Production: 7.84MM Bbl/d
Where is the 0.4-0.5MM Bbl/d of OIL production growth that Bloomberg forecasted??? NGL's don't count...

We believe that the false narratives of surging US shale production, faltering OPEC+ cohesion, and weak demand are negatively impacting sentiment leading to oil trading $14/bbl below fair value. What do we believe to be true?
1) US shale has entered its twilight and will grow less than consensus believes
2) OPEC+ cohesion is strong and barrels will only be returned slowly and cautiously (3 P's)
3) Global demand growth in 2025 will be within historical norms and peak demand is much further away than consensus.


Summary: Bullish oil and energy equities; selloff unjustified, summer draws + all-time-low inventories by YE; deployed cash into energy stocks.

We do not believe the selloff in oil this week is justified by fundamentals and is an opportunity for energy investors. With meaningful Summer draws just around the corner and global oil inventories to reach all-time lows by YE, we have deployed our cash buying decades worth of FCF for free: https://t.co/7toa00VmHH


it's not looking great for natural gas near-term

Summary: Near-term bearish on natural gas (warm weather), medium-term bullish; gas stocks pricing in $3.50+/mcf vs oil stocks below $60/bbl makes stock selection critical.

When you can pick up your girls from school with the roof down in February…it’s not looking great for natural gas near-term! We remain medium-term bulls but timing and stock selection key as many gas stocks discounting $3.50/mcf or higher vs. some oil stocks <$60/bbl. https://t.co/HpJflKdyhs


Energy remains an under-owned, out-of-favour, generally loathed, contrarian sector despite: record low global oil inventories, record high global oil demand

Summary: Bullish global energy sector on supply/demand tightness, sanctions, shale twilight, OPEC+ discipline, high FCF yields, and strong balance sheets.

Energy remains an under-owned, out-of-favour, generally loathed, contrarian sector despite:
➡record low global oil inventories
➡record high global oil demand
➡~1 year high natural gas prices
➡imminent US sanctions enforcement on Russia and Iran
➡2024 = lowest rate of growth in US shale since its inception = twilight of US shale
➡disappointing non-OPEC supply growth
➡strong OPEC+ cohesion and tightly held spare capacity
➡record free cashflow / buybacks
➡fortress strength balance sheets
➡44% currency uplift for CDN producers
➡many stocks trading at 15%+ FCF yields at $75 (10% at $70)


Summary: Bullish Canadian energy sector: TMX entering service removes a key foreign-investor barrier, with the top barrier also to be resolved by Fall '25.

The Canadian energy sector has awaited this news for far too long, yet here it is!!! TMX to go into service in May...huge positive and eliminates the 2nd largest reason why foreign investors have avoided the CDN oil patch (with the #1 reason to be addressed by Fall '25). https://t.co/tkQSEse1Az


Summary: Disputes bearish oil consensus (shale discipline, demand, OPEC); base case $80 WTI in 2024 with bullish energy sector lean.

Consensus now seems to be that US shale companies have lost discipline and will flood the market, that oil demand is terrible, and that the OPEC+ deal is nearing collapse and they will flood the market to regain lost market share. I do not believe any of this. Yet, with all of that bearish narrative, 2024 WTI strip is $70.31. This is what the energy sector looks like on a relative basis at $70 (and at $80WTI which is still our base case for 2024):


Is the worst behind us for energy stocks? Bottoms are found in capitulation...when the last (or 2nd last) towel has been thrown in and stocks approach deeply oversold levels. Yesterday, the RSI hit its lowest level since oil went negative in March 2020 and is at levels that historically has = a bottom. Fundamentally, we also believe current dividend yields of 5%-8% sustainable at $45-$55WTI offer support.

Summary: Bullish energy stocks: RSI at 2020-lows signals capitulation bottom; 5-8% dividend yields sustainable at $45-55 WTI offer fundamental support.

Is the worst behind us for energy stocks? Bottoms are found in capitulation...when the last (or 2nd last) towel has been thrown in and stocks approach deeply oversold levels. Yesterday, the RSI (relative strength index) hit its lowest level since oil went negative in March 2020 and is at levels that historically has = a bottom. Fundamentally, we also believe current dividend yields of 5%-8% sustainable at $45-$55WTI offer support.  Sentiment has clearly taken a hit, more by the velocity than the magnitude. Reports show aggressive share buybacks...the only positive spin on macro/paper market tantrums like the past several weeks.


Summary: Remains bullish on oil and sees top energy investment opportunities in Canada.

Join me this Thursday at 2pm ET for a one hour webinar where I'll explain why "we remain bullish" on oil and why we see the very best energy investment opportunities here in Canada. Register and submit questions: https://t.co/WviMQ1F4YJ https://t.co/0Xa21tjHJ2


We remain bullish on Canadian heavy oil/oilsand companies

Summary: Bullish on Canadian heavy oil/oilsands companies as TMX pipeline expansion approaches.

Canadian heavy oil/oilsands: CNQ, CVE, ATH

TMX is coming (eventually). "We remain bullish" on Canadian heavy oil/oilsand companies.
https://t.co/ByhYZaGsD3 https://t.co/LRRJx7wZGW


Summary: Strongly bullish oil and energy equities for multi-year cycle: record demand, low inventories, OPEC+ discipline, record FCF with 60-100% shareholder returns.

I continue to believe that we are very early in what will be a multi-year bull market for oil and energy stocks. Skepticism remains high and investors scarred from the worst bear market in history remain afraid of being hurt again, yet fundamentals to me have never looked better. Demand is at a record high, inventories at a multi-year low and headed lower, and OPEC+ under the strong leadership of HRH ABS is determined to provide stability to the oil price. Given the strongest balance sheets in history, the highest free cashflow in history, and an ironclad commitment to return 60%-100% of that free cashflow back to investors once final debt targets are reached in the coming months, I can arrive at only one conclusion...we remain bullish!


Summary: Endorses bullish case on Range Resources as natural gas strip trades at $4.50/mcf for 2026.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

With the 2026 US natural gas strip now trading at $4.50/mcf, it was great to sit down with the CEO of Range Resources for a quick chat on why investors should be bullish on natural gas https://t.co/VmzfMrlX3v


Summary: Remains firmly bullish on oil and energy equities; fundamentals point to higher prices as demand grows, shale growth falls, OPEC spare capacity exhausts, and inventories draw.

The antidote to fear is facts. While banking sector panic-induced crude liquidation may continue, leading to still lower oil prices, when the dust eventually settles, what do oil fundamentals and energy stock valuations look like? Some thoughts: https://t.co/Zca0Uqwa4y

---

The past year has been a struggle for oil bulls. The positive catalysts of a reopening China, US shale hyper-growth ending, and OPEC spare capacity exhaustion have been trumped by recessionary f.e.a.r.s and the largest SPR release in history. Price is now setting narrative. https://t.co/1uOgjaRkxD

---

Despite a softish start to the year, mainly due to a very warm Winter in NA and Europe, we expect draws to accelerate as China fully normalizes and works down their domestic inventory levels. https://t.co/HoT8GZ5BHO

---

But what about a recession? Even accounting for recessions in the US and Europe, with OECD demand falling by 0.6MM Bbl/d, Energy Aspects still sees challenged supply growth + non-OECD demand growth = meaningful stock draws Q2 onwards = multi-year low inventory levels by YE'23. https://t.co/U67WnYXSWZ

---

Do we remain bullish? Absolutely. Why? Even in a recession we believe demand grows, yet short-cycle US shale growth is radically falling and long-cycle investment remains too low. All while OPEC spare capacity is set to be exhausted. Falling inventories = higher price, eventually

---

Let's assume we are wrong. What do valuations and free cashflow look like at near-current prices? At $70WTI the average energy stock we model trades at 3.7x EV/CF and a 12% free cashflow yield, all with perhaps the strongest balance sheets in history. https://t.co/TN1ujA3ejh

---

What if the multi-year bull market for oil isn't over, but just delayed until macro panic subsides? Our favourite companies we believe are now trading at 30% free cashflow yields with over 30 years of stay-flat inventory and have pledged 75%+ of FCF to shareholder returns. https://t.co/kdRuSFhVpC

---

In summary, we remain bullish. Not because we are perma-bulls (we are not) but rather because fundamentals suggest to us that the oil price is headed much higher, in time. So for now, patience. This too shall pass.


We remain bullish on the outlook for Canadian energy stocks in 2026

Summary: Bullish on Canadian energy stocks into 2026.

Last BNN appearance of 2025, a volatile yet generally successful year for energy investors. "We remain bullish"™on the outlook for Canadian energy stocks in 2026. From my family to yours, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
https://t.co/w4qOvw4uWB https://t.co/0RFrsxYCVp