THIS IS A CATALYST. One long One short $BABA $NVDA

Summary: BABA long / NVDA short: BABA's new AI chip development buries NVDA's H20 China sales hopes.

$BABA develops and announces new AI Chip, to fill in the hole left by the Americans.

Seems $NVDA's hopes of selling the H20 or whatever version of it into China, are now buried.

The Chinese are serious x serious in this race, and they will not be threatened by the likes of https://t.co/fIqaZY5p9e


structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


Summary: Names ASTS as a top stock pick, framing it as resilient to recession and Musk-related risks.

Something new I'm trying out...
Let me know what you think!

$ASTS: Recession & Musk-Proof Top Stock Pick

https://t.co/nqWW9rVvKD


that's good for a short term gold pull back

Summary: If Supreme Court doesn't take up the case Sep 29, expects a short-term gold pullback.

Trump: under pressure

So if the Supreme Court doesn’t take up the case on September 29, that’s good for a short term gold pull back…

NEW: Every living former Fed chair (Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen) ...

have joined several former Treasury secretaries (Rubin, Summers, Paulson, Geithner, Lew) ...

and CEA chairs (Hubbard, Mankiw, Romer, Furman, Rouse, Bernstein) who served presidents of both parties ...

in an


Summary: Long gold trend intact; short-term pullback on Trump-Putin peace talks is just a dip, not a reversal.

Macro, Intermarket, Technical Tells For Gold Trend Long

*short-term pullback into Trump-Putin "peace talks" is just that 😉 https://t.co/2HohRBM7TL


this nasty gap down on W/M charts post Epstein file reveal... means it can easily head much lower in time. $65K > 49K > 38K > 26K

Summary: Bearish BTC after tagging $65K target; gap down on weekly/monthly charts signals path to $49K, $38K, $26K.

@Jaketh1747091 Yes, Bitcoin just tagged my $65K call from Oct 2025, but this nasty gap down on W/M charts post Epstein file reveal... means it can easily head much lower in time.
$BTCUSD

$65K > 49K > 38K > 26K... https://t.co/MK47uhLOWN

@SamanthaLaDuc As a btc relative newbie (since 3/24) I was stunned by a comment you made back in the “good old days” (BTC = 110K+) In response to another writer suggesting to a fomo victim that they “jump in with two feet now before it’s too late.”  I believe you said something to the effect


falling global oil demand ... The market just doesn't see it yet.

Summary: Bearish oil: rising EV adoption signals falling global demand, market hasn't priced it in yet.

All I read is:
“falling global oil demand”

And US makes up 20% of GLOBAL oil supply/sales…

The market just doesn’t see it yet.

President Trump cannot have his cake and eat it!

"Trump administration officials said on Friday that Canada would regret its decision to allow China to import up to 49,000 Chinese EVs, and that those cars would not be allowed to enter the United States.
"I think they'll look https://t.co/iB1KBLmxAo


Summary: BTC bounces to ~110K near-term then rolls to 65K by summer; author calls it a bull trap of size.

My bet: $BTCUSD bounce into 110K at some point in the next month or two before rolling down to 65K by summer.

Bitcoin is a bull trap of size.
Especially if it doesn’t hold 65,000 …

Tom Lee expects Bitcoin to break into a fresh all-time high by the end of January 2026. https://t.co/kB0gh1d3ee


Summary: Still holds long-term targets of $6K gold and $150 silver; expects digestion period after recent volatility but maintains bullish stance.

Thank you. Yes, I still have $6K gold & $150 silver.
Doesn't mean we can't have volatility.

I called the OCT 2025 metals volatility in advance & I caught this one too:

Warned Jan 22nd, then 28th, then 29th.
Now we see how long the digestion period, but this one should take longer. Unless we bomb Iran.

@SamanthaLaDuc Hi @SamanthaLaDuc great call on Precious metals !! However do you thons that gold can go 6k oz, or moré in the ne t years or so ? Seems like gold will continue to outperform stocks. Thank you, have a nice weekend !!


Summary: Bearish BTC and ETH: as USD weakens, both will follow lower despite equities rising; crypto is trapped.

Again, “BTCUSD IS trapped”, as warned.

BTC price Mar 7, 2025 is same as Jan 27, 2026

And now as USD moves lower, BTC will follow. ETH too. Despite rising equities. 😉

We moved from digital back to physical. And only real inflationary assets & stores of value will do. ⏳

Financial conditions are not easing. They are being reset to push down dollar, yields and oil so as to unwind equity leverage from Wall St to stimulate real growth from Main St .

All the examples of BTC troughs triggered by falling USD were in fact global central bank POLICY


The copper market — like aluminum — is a textbook demonstration of how Trump's tariff policies turn a weak demand-supply balance into higher prices anyway.

Summary: Tariffs drive copper and aluminum prices higher regardless of weak demand-supply; bullish on copper/aluminum producers and ETF.

“The copper market — like aluminum — is a textbook demonstration of how Trump’s tariff policies turn a weak demand-supply balance into higher prices anyway.”

$COPX $FCX $AA $CENX


Summary: Long gold, silver, and copper as the new structural commodity cycle; warns of near-term volatility ahead.

Metals Are The New Oil

$GLD $SLV $XME $COPX

Big bull of #gold, #silver, and #copper since April 2024 doesn't mean I don't warn when I can see volatility approaching...

$XAGUSD $XAUUSD https://t.co/zC9FIscN4O


Summary: Silver retail FOMO could start this week and run ~3 months before the parabola breaks.

SI=F COMEX silver futures on Yahoo Finance

@GregorPepe I wouldn't be surprised if it started this week and  could run ~3 mos of FOMO before it breaks. But it is a parabola nonetheless. #Silver

@SamanthaLaDuc Imho, I don’t believe that

— BB’s frenetic short covering,
— the CME Group halting trading due to almost empty order book,
— canceling buy orders,
— or a sudden liquidity injection from the Fed

are signs of FOMO. Retail FOMO will only begin once silver reaches the $80–$100


Summary: Bitcoin target $65K to downside; swing shorts active on HOOD, APP, TSLA with VIX as risk guide.

Shorts Working. So Are Volatility Tells

From Friday’s live trading room:

Bitcoin to $65K, updates on swing shorts & $VIX levels to manage risk in this risk-filled week.

$BTCUSD $HOOD $APP $TSLA $VIX

https://t.co/ZLJgFiLysk


I would not hold the 30 yrs under waterboarding. If you want more active timing of bond shorts, clients can attest: Geoffrey & I don't suck at it.

Summary: Strongly bearish 30-year US Treasuries; won't hold them and actively trades bond shorts.

Geoffrey, tell us how you really feel?

"I would not hold the 30 yrs under waterboarding." 🤭

If you want more active timing of bond shorts, clients can attest: Geoffrey & I don't suck at it.
https://t.co/V1yrzM8SnW

Five is a nicer number, round number. I like 5 🙃
It's a yuuuuuge number, it's the most beautiful number in the world.
It's a number everyone likes, it's the most buuuuuuuuuutiful number in the world. https://t.co/BCPH6tOoXd


Summary: Maintains $60–40 oil range forecast into 2026, consistent with Goldman/JPM downside calls; bearish crude outlook.

USO United States Oil Fund tracks WTI crude

November 2025: Brent Oil Price is $60.

2026 Oil Forecast bottom range:
Goldman Sachs: $40
JP Morgan: $30

I gave mine in April 2024 for EOY 2025:
$WTIC $60-40 😉😜
Gonna stick with it for 2026.
Any lower and...
Houston, we have a problem. https://t.co/3KeMXtzfRu


$GOOGL invested in SpaceX early... And that was based on the $350 billion valuation from late 2024. If SpaceX hits the $1.5 trillion target, the paper gains from this single position could exceed $80 billion more.

Summary: Bullish GOOGL on massive SpaceX paper gains and new ASTS stake; bullish ASTS on Google's 3.22% investment.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

$GOOGL invested in SpaceX early.

"In Q1 2025, Alphabet reported $8 billion in unrealized gains from a “non-marketable equity security in a private company.” Bloomberg confirmed it was SpaceX. That $8 billion boost represented nearly 25% of Google’s entire net income for the quarter."

And that was based on the $350 billion valuation from late 2024. If SpaceX hits the $1.5 trillion target, the paper gains from this single position could exceed $80 billion more."

Guess what: last month $GOOG invested in $ASTS and now owns 3.22%. 😉+😉

In January 2015, Google and Fidelity wrote a combined $1 billion check for roughly 10% of SpaceX. The company was valued at $12 billion. Google’s portion: approximately $900 million for 7.4%.

At the time, SpaceX had just successfully landed a Falcon 9 first stage for the first


last month $GOOG invested in $ASTS and now owns 3.22%


Summary: Bullish on metals/minerals/materials sector as the new oil; endorses critical mineral stocks list.

REMX rare earth; PICK metals & mining ETF

METALS ARE THE NEW OIL™

I should expand that to cover:
Metals, Minerals, Materials

Not a bad list of 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀👇

𝗔 𝗟𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀

𝗥𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗵𝘀
$MP MP Materials
$IDR Idaho Strategic Resources
$USAR USA Rare Earth
$TMQ Trilogy Metals
$REEMF Rare Element Resources

𝗠𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶-𝗠𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹𝘀
$CRML Critical Metals Corp
$TMC TMC the metals https://t.co/KpPJmdTgZ5


Swing Long $BA review from Dec 2nd client post: $200 to $250 ;-) ... so that, once above, it can continue into my 245-260 higher targets. I like it again!

Summary: Long BA targeting 245-260 on CFO's delivery ramp, positive FCF outlook for 2026, and recovery momentum above 214 pivot.

Swing Long $BA review from Dec 2nd client post: $200 to $250 ;-)

"BA - wow, what a move! Opened right above 197.68 daily support which I called out as bullish to 200 for a chase - $200 because that was 10W/400W. It just kept going and closed > 205 so 10%... on solid news I might add. Now it needs to make its way back up into pivotal 214 monthly... so that, once above, it can continue into my 245-260 higher targets. I like it again!

...optimistic comments from the company’s new CFO, Jay Malave, during an appearance at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference. He indicated that Boeing expects higher deliveries for both its 737 and 787 jet models in 2026 compared to 2025, signaling a potential turnaround after years of challenges including safety issues, production delays, strikes, and negative cash flow.

Malave also projected that Boeing will achieve positive free cash flow in 2026, in the low single-digit billions, following an estimated $2 billion outflow in 2025. He emphasized that the company’s recovery is “in full force” and reiterated a long-term goal of reaching $10 billion in annual free cash flow. Additionally, Boeing is on track to complete its acquisition of key supplier Spirit AeroSystems by year-end, and a U.S. Department of Justice penalty related to the 737 MAX crashes has been deferred to 2026. These updates have boosted investor confidence, as Boeing has not generated positive annual cash flow since 2023."

GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS.


Summary: Author reaffirms bullish consumer cyclical rotation call is still ongoing and not done.

My consumer cyclical rotation call mid-Nov has been a VERY profitable one.

#NotDone https://t.co/o0kadaTbRy

2026 Prediction: ROTATION & RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS

Consumer Cyclical Rotation Got Popular

About That Yield Curve Steepener

My Top 2026 Trading Themes Remain My Focus

https://t.co/imW7A5HJXb


Summary: Long TRI & IGV; chasing NFLX into price target; QQQ target in sight; also setting up APP, INTU, ORCL, MSTR chases.

my RIGHT TAIL set up Tues AM was right on schedule with continuation today

already long yday $TRI & $IGV profiled below

$NFLX chase into PT with $QQQ target in sight

also set up $APP $INTU $ORCL $MSTR chases

all working! join us live & get the trade before it happens

Left Tail Delayed; Right Tail Green Shoots

https://t.co/9mH4bWEu3y


Color me skeptical. $IWM is same price as NOV 2021 - 4 yrs later - with constant calls for the rally to 'broaden out'. How does that work when they leave the junkiest companies in the Russell 2000... IWM has a growing, not falling, number of unprofitable companies

Summary: Bearish IWM: stagnant 4-year price, rising unprofitable constituents, K-shaped economy, and high unemployment fears undermine small-cap bull thesis.

Tom Lee says we’re going to 10,000 soon because Valuations are low & earnings growth is massive. 🙈

Others say lack of Fed independence will push down rates which will help small caps. Oh & somehow Trump pulls off an industrial renaissance so wages rise & earnings rise. 🤨

Color me skeptical.

$IWM is same price as NOV 2021 - 4 yrs later - with constant calls for the rally to "broaden out".

How does that work when they leave the junkiest companies in the Russell 2000, moving out the high-performers to the mid-cap tier?

Also, IWM has a growing, not falling, number of unprofitable companies ...
amidst a worsening K-shaped economy...
with highest unemployment fears since the GFC.

The ONLY reason it is even relevant of late is because of the metals/commodity revival on dollar debasement theme!

That and continued policy intervention from repressed yields, financialization & AI hype.

Now imagine a time it is not so easy to keep yields down and AI up. 😱

Then is your bullish bet that money will rotate out of Growth into Value? Sure, high-quality value, but that's NOT the Russell 2000!

When we get a growth scare of size, more likely cash is raised and commodities get bid. But then, that's a select group of IWM - not the index at large.

My point: KNOW WHAT YOU OWN & WHY.


Summary: Long TLT as a trade on anticipated Russia-Ukraine peace deal + sanctions lifted, with record 27% short interest as a squeeze catalyst.

The other side of this Venezuela trade isn’t being talked about very much, but should be…

If/When Russia-Ukraine peace deal be presented soon, and Russia get all sanctions lifted & assets unfrozen…

Long US bonds (for a trade).

$TLT currently has 27% SI for example…an ATH.

Venezuela is now couped. Maduro has been taken out. US now controls VE oil. And most of world's oil. The rest of what I said in this attached post about olive branch to Russia (to make it ditch China) is likely to follow👇


Summary: Bullish precious metals as USD/UST recycling abates amid US-China trade tensions and reduced technology transfer.

US reshoring is very problematic!
This paper explains. Geoffrey sums it up well:

The system works "as long as there is demand for USD via the energy cartelization which is priced in dollars (to make it) artificially expensive for exporters to the US (as it) generates demand for the USD.

There is (was) also the willingness of the creditor to the US (China) to lend money to the US or do vendor financing.

As long as there is a technology transfer it's ok, but if there is not so much technology to transfer, the willingness to recycle (USD & UST) abates, and the precious metals under both pressures moon." @GraphCall

https://t.co/hsQxUJJ9mF

Very interesting paper by Chinese economists on the role of multinational corporations in the US–China trade conflict:

US-based multinational corporations (MNCs) depend on extracting surplus value from China via a "financialization–offshoring nexus", with 4 parts:

1. MNCs https://t.co/6vPpcQjHEz


$PEP as one of my "Oversold Consumer Cyclical" plays with news we can use

Summary: Long PEP as an oversold consumer cyclical with a positive catalyst from the Elliott-driven price-cut agreement.

$PEP as one of my “Oversold Consumer Cyclical” plays with news we can use

PEPSI AGREES TO CUT PRICES BY UP TO 20% IN THE 🇺🇸

PepsiCo $PEP made an agreement with activist investor Elliott Management, committing to cut costs across the company and lower prices in its slowing food business

The maker of Pepsi-Cola, Lay’s and Doritos said it would reduce https://t.co/IM6HDatBKZ


Summary: Fade the CPI-driven bounce in MU once it tags $271 target; bearish after that level is hit.

Hard to believe...😉😉 #CPI

but regardless, it will be a lovely bounce to fade after $MU tags $271 as warned this wk for clients.

The November CPI was much lower than expected, with core CPI up just 0.2% over the *two months* through Nov.

This is likely to raise questions over certain adjustments statisticians had to make given the void in the October data.

Core CPI: +2.6% y/y
Headline CPI: +2.7% y/y


Summary: Bearish BTC: synthetic ETF hypothecation creating phantom liquidity; expects another -30% funding stress event with retail tapped out.

$BTC down -30% is yet another funding stress incoming. WHY?

“the crypto ETF’s are synthetically propping up hedge funds and institutional players with liquidity that doesn’t exist.”

And retail is tapped!

👉https://t.co/r1OoQdr8nZ

Ummm. Our old friend hypothecation at it again. How the crypto ETF’s are synthetically propping up hedge funds and institutional players with liquidity that doesn’t exist.

TDLR: we are F’d

https://t.co/9VIHCLmOi9

The integration of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products


Summary: Bullish silver (and gold/miners) — sees no durable reason to short without rate hikes, trade war reversal, or balanced budget; structural USD/Treasury loss of faith drives the trend.

Why would silver pull back - other than scared longs on profit taking or scared shorts, minor interruptions from rebalancing or dollar pop…

Yen intervention
VIX

More durable reason to short:

Rate hikes
Reversal of trade wars/Peace/Political stability in US

Only macro reason:
Balanced budget
Surplus

"the silver stampede represents a growing chorus of consensus in the lack of faith in the US dollar (hegemony), US collateral (treasuries), US leadership (military) and economic growth (inelastic supply meets price inelastic demand)."

$SLV $GLD $GDX $SIL


the silver stampede represents a growing chorus of consensus in the lack of faith in the US dollar


Summary: Staying short crude oil into 2026 on falling global demand, rising EV adoption, and renewables cost-competitiveness.

Why I’m Staying Short #Oil Into 2026

Still bearish on #crudeoil despite widespread bullish calls - Rick Rule etc.  I have focused on falling global demand, rising EV adoption & Geoffrey's take on renewables as cost-competitive. @GraphCall
$WTIC #CL1

https://t.co/V1yrzM8SnW https://t.co/t9DNdaLyxF

---

Here's the link on our YT channel where we also offer the option of view-only live trading room YouTube Membership

https://t.co/iq7AFpf6rF


Summary: Long EUR/gold, short US equities and oil: USD devaluation + foreigners dumping USTs/equities mirrors 1973 crack-up boom then crash.

1973 IS COMING - BUT NOT FOR OIL

There is falling global dollar AND treasury demand, but not for US equities.

25% of USTs are owned by foreigners (down from 33% a decade ago)

25% of US Equities are owned by foreigners (up from 18%)

USD share of global foreign reserves as fallen 33%. As a result: Gold is #1 reserve asset on global central banks - not USD anymore.

USD wasn’t in a hurry to fall without Fed/Treasury intervention Oct 2022 - but then Trump entered the scene JAN 2025 to make USD devalutation a feature not a bug.

Now, with Fed pressured to lower rates & monetize deficits, the USD is falling faster as foreigners stay away from USTs & bypass USD, UST & Petrol-dollar (Oil) for trade settlement in Gold.

THIS macro roadmap was laid out early last year as basis of potential crack-up boom reaction in stocks.

The problem is when the USD weakens too much as Fed cuts, forcing the Fed to later re-tighten... just like what happened in 1973 ... THEN the equity rally falters & fades WITH the USD falling, setting up an even more aggressive selling of both foreign-held equities & treasuries & dollars.

In the same way 1973 caused USD to fall hard with equities, US is setting up for a strong case of foreigners selling EVERYTHING once inflation picks up state-side and Fed intonates hiking.

Bad news will be very bad news - ala 1973 - 1974 - and it won't have to do with oil.

Remember my mantra last year:

METALS ARE THE NEW OIL™

Geoffrey: @GraphCall
"Now the Fed is going to cut rates and resume balance sheet expansion. DO THEY BELIEVE THEY OPERATE IN VACCUM?

So now you know why I am long the euro"

It's all about BALANCE OF TRADE & CAPITAL FLOWS.

"once the DXY is at 0.8 you should get better terms of trade IF the Treasury manages to shrink primary deficit as a % of GDP.  A much lower FX with not TOO MUCH inflation is the cure."

PLACE YOUR BETS

$EURUSD $WTIC $SPX

https://t.co/NcKcmjafDU


Summary: Bullish gold as global store of value displacing USD; bearish USD and implicitly bearish crypto vs gold.

Excellent point on India.

I made the same point in a podcast a few months ago on Chinese citizens hoarding gold

 … and how their appetite for gold elevates the wealth of their country as China settles global trade in gold - outside of USD & UST & US OIL.

Also, and this is really important to… how in contrast Americans hoard crypto crap instead of gold. 😤😩👎

1/ In 5 years, Indian households could turn out to be worlds best investor , they are shorting the USD via INR and buying gold.

2/ If gold hits $10,000 per ounce, Indian households will hold around $10 trillion worth of gold ( assuming 30000 tonnes ) — a staggering store of https://t.co/b5SNEo0W0b


Summary: Active 2-month short on NFLX and SPOT pair-trade; both breaking down on weekly chart with failed bounces toward key monthly support.

Lucky Or Good: 2 Month $NFLX Short

The $NFLX – $SPOT pair-trade still working as both stocks break down on weekly chart: same distribution pattern, with failed bounces, driving them to key monthly support levels - long before Friday’s $NFLX news. 💃

https://t.co/Sgen5wnLWw


The $NFLX – $SPOT pair-trade still working as both stocks break down on weekly chart


Summary: Bullish silver, gold, and related miners/ETFs as dollar hegemony, treasuries, and US leadership lose credibility driving precious metals demand.

"the silver stampede represents a growing chorus of consensus in the lack of faith in the US dollar (hegemony), US collateral (treasuries), US leadership (military) and economic growth (inelastic supply meets price inelastic demand)."

$SLV $GLD $GDX $SIL
https://t.co/42fR3tgCk4


Summary: Multiple calls: long WVE 14→20, short LLY/XLV, long ASTS, long RKLB, short GOOGL, long ORCL, swing short NFLX and SPOT.

This was my premarket rant, live - even before I had my coffee...💃

$WVE 14 to 20 😳🤣🚀
$LLY nice short with $XLV

UPDATE on my fave trend: $ASTS 🫶
Bonus: $RKLB with $TE 😉

Chase short in $GOOGL, long in $ORCL
And continued swing shorts in $NFLX & $SPOT

Have a great week!! https://t.co/CjBiJpzi7U


Summary: Bearish HYG: three consecutive weeks of outflows and tightening credit liquidity seen as just the beginning.

@yieldsearcher $HYG HYOAS

TXS for pointing out the 3 consecutive weeks of outflows.

Agree, credit market tightens liquidity as equities fall.

And I think it’s just starting.

HYG is an extremely liquidity-sensitive product. When you are a $1.5t asset class sandwiched between a $50t Treasury & IG corp credit market and a $60T equity market, flows from major asset allocators will have a much outsized impact. The asset class is simply too small for large https://t.co/XhYQTF7tac


You had me at "If Google were to make those TPUs commercially available at scale and reasonable price, Nvidia's dominance would end, price wars would begin, and compute would become a commodity." $GOOGL

Summary: Bullish GOOGL on TPU commercial potential displacing NVDA; if realized, NVDA dominance ends and compute becomes commodity.

You had me at "If Google were to make those TPUs commercially available at scale and reasonable price, Nvidia’s dominance would end, price wars would begin, and compute would become a commodity." $GOOGL

Hot take on Gemini 3.  Points 4 and 5 might literally change the world. Also, OpenAI is in trouble.

• Great model, but it’s not AGI; has the same kind of problems all earlier models have had. Hallucinations and unreliability persist.

• In short, scaling isn’t getting us to


Summary: Bullish on China AI/tech sector; argues the market has not yet priced in China's AI competitive position.

KWEB China internet; CQQQ China tech ETF

"This all fits into a story that's been emerging from China's AI scene since the beginning of this year ala DeepSeek..."

Yupper. I wrote at length about it in Jan 2025:

THIS IS THE MANHATTAN PROJECT 2.0
https://t.co/NXzg6cZPSp

And no, "China's AI scene" is not priced in.

CNBC just laid it out clearly:
🇺🇸 US tech giants are expected to spend $700B on AI infrastructure by 2027.
🇨🇳 Chinese cloud firms? Less than $80B combined.

And yet, Chinese models like Kimi, Tongyi Qianwen, and Qwen are already neck-and-neck with top US models on standard https://t.co/8WBzSG0Dp5


the NEW way MONETIZES GOLD so NDX>USD>GOLD or yen>gold... *THEY* ARE SETTLING OUTSIDE THE DOLLAR INTO GOLD & SILVER

Summary: USDJPY rising; yen carry unwind now routes into gold/silver as global capitals settle trade outside USD, with silver having too much speculation priced in per bonus note.

Maybe $USDJPY keeps rising...

and with it a stealth yen carry trade unwind we can't see...

from converting yen into GOLD...

since the new Japanese PM entered the scene...

>>the OLD way of using yen to buy USD to buy NDX etc before an unwind NDX>USD>YEN...

>>the NEW way MONETIZES GOLD so NDX>USD>GOLD or yen>gold...

Has anyone thought, maybe, Japanese are tired of buying a currency that is not devaluing their lives into prosperity and/or that Japanese capital no longer wants to hold junk bonds when gold is being used by countries to settle trade outside of USD, UST & Petrol-dollar (Oil)??

USDJPY is to GOLD as USDCNY is to SILVER.

*THEY* ARE SETTLING OUTSIDE THE DOLLAR INTO GOLD & SILVER.

Bonus thought: But one has way too much speculation priced in & an official price war that isn't priced in. 😉

Yen weakness continues, this is bad for Japanese consumers as their pricing power continues to fall. Yen is near that 160 level after which intervention becomes a given. Recent bond sell off in JGBs complicating Ueda's decision. Huge issue for Ueda as BOJ meets next 2 days. BOJ


USDJPY is to GOLD as USDCNY is to SILVER. *THEY* ARE SETTLING OUTSIDE THE DOLLAR INTO GOLD & SILVER


Summary: Reiterates 2yr-old call: USD has peaked and is falling; inflationary real assets outperform paper assets.

REET global real estate; PDBC commodities as real assets

So much talk of dollar debasement picking up speed. Well, it was one of my predictions >2yrs ago:

"USD Has Likely Peaked and THINGS OVER PAPER".

I did an interview with @RogerHirst3 with a few themes that have stuck LIKE... the falling value of USD & why INFLATIONARY REAL ASSETS would outperform. 😉

I just updated my market/sector/themes if interested across all assets 👇

MANIFESTO INCOMIMG 🤣

My 2026 INTERMARKET ANALYSIS ROADMAP For Market/Sector Direction & Key Themes

https://t.co/G0u4ZTZSGg


A metals-treasury roadmap of currency debasement & inflation. #Gold

Summary: Bullish gold on currency debasement and inflation dynamics.

Trump's Federal Reserve chairman-designate will not be able to stop the bull market in gold: https://t.co/9VQlbiYQUj


Summary: IONQ should be repriced to zero; strongly bearish.

@MattocksHunter @SpecialSitsNews $IONQ in the ZERO DOLLAR CLUB deserves to be repriced


I'm expecting to hear a flushing sound soon.

Summary: Bearish on memory stocks SNDK, MU, WDC, STX — calls it an overtraded bubble with a crash incoming.

Another great case of overtrading a bubble - this one in memory. 🧻

I’m expecting to hear a flushing sound soon.

$SNDK $MU $WDC $STX

Memory is the new toilet paper, in the AI era

$SNDK reminds me of the toilet paper hoarding during Covid. I recall Costco of all places declining to take back toilet paper because of the massive hoarding consumers did during Covid.

Memory business is cyclical, it is not meant


Summary: Author hints PFGC still has more upside after booking profits on calls.

@DJ_Tao @LaDucTrading outstanding job!
PS. doesn't look done ;-)

Not a single Twitter account, Discord, or Tiktok had this name because NOBODY else is watching it.

But at @LaDucTrading we will not only show you the names that no one else is looking at, but we will show you how to maximize profit on them!

Booked profits on $PFGC calls today https://t.co/PkeT8Uh77H


Summary: Long gold (GLD/SLV): best inflation proxy with surging demand, limited supply, geopolitical stress, and dollar debasement tailwinds.

“Gold is now the purist form of an inflation proxy WITH exploding demand against limited supply ALL wrapped neatly against the backdrop of growing geopolitical stress AND dollar dedollarization, devaluation & debasement.”

Me in a podcast back in early October 😉 $GLD $SLV


Summary: Bullish gold: foreign nations are buying commodities instead of recycling USD into USTs, driving the sector rotation into gold.

You want to really understand why gold has led this monster sector rotation? Listen to our Classical Economist Geoffrey:

“They stop the vendor financing and do an external drain.”

What’s an external drain?

“When foreign countries don't recycle their USD acquired in trade for UST. Instead they buy all sort of commodities in high demand” @GraphCall

It’s a trend. The FOMO & mania follow and reinforce the trend.

https://t.co/1ArgV7af2v

@Dhrumit08 Great reminder of foreign holdings of USTs
and the biggest sellers last 12mos:

CHINA
BELGIUM
INDIA
ABRAZIL
SAUDI ARABIA
MEXICO
INDONESIA
DENMARK
TURKEY

h/t @Dhrumit08 https://t.co/Q8JPvUSg6F


$RIVN - up +43% on stock basis since rec'd and today hit 20 target - with 22/23 by Feb still in view

Summary: RIVN still targeting 22-23 by Feb; ALB and AA remain bullish pending pullbacks staying above 125 and 44 respectively.

" $LULU - up +25% on stock basis since rec’d and today hit 220 target - overshot to 226 where I warned it would likely soften. It dropped $10.

$RIVN - up +43% on stock basis since rec’d and today hit 20 target - with 22/23 by Feb still in view

$ALB - up +65% on stock basis since rec’d and just needs to stay > 125 on pullback, which I expect shortly.

$AA - up +41% on stock basis since rec’d and just needs to stay > 44 on pullback, which I expect shortly."

https://t.co/1jZLDbJ6rJ


$ALB - up +65% on stock basis since rec'd and just needs to stay > 125 on pullback, which I expect shortly


$AA - up +41% on stock basis since rec'd and just needs to stay > 44 on pullback, which I expect shortly


Summary: Bearish SPX targeting 6666 and bearish BTC ('winter is here') amid expected equity collateral damage.

Epstein is suspected of triggering the great financial crisis & even “potentially“from the dead, looks like he’s ready to trigger the second one.

(emphasis on “potentially“ dead…
Vegas odds are rising strongly for serious collateral damage in equities)

I told clients last week I expect $SPX $6666 to be the first target.

$BTCUSD winter is here

So let me get this straight…

Jeffrey Epstein admits he spoke with Satoshi, paid the salaries of roughly 60% of Bitcoin’s core developers, was a lead investor in Blockstream (responsible for the majority of major protocol changes, the centralized Lightning Network, and


Summary: Enthusiastically endorses IVOL ETF for its long rate vol, inflation-protected bonds, and SOFR curve steepener exposure.

How did I not know about this $IVOL product by @nancy__davis 🤯

Long interest rate volatility✅
Long inflation protected bonds in tax efficient way✅
Long steepener...✅Oh yeah

Better yet, long steepness of SOFR curve (cheaper than the 2Y10Y spot 50bp vs 71bp)❗

#FixedIncome https://t.co/q0IZs62ZNL


Summary: Bearish INTC back to $37 after selling into earnings; prior $53 bull thesis now reversed to downside target.

After being very bullish $INTC with a $53 target from $37, I told clients it had turned FOMO & was not safe into earnings. In fact, I rec'd selling that juicy 200IV in the options for the inevitable 'option crush'. That worked great. #NotDone
Back to $37!
https://t.co/VJBNMnODyJ https://t.co/0MGj3zEznK

Swing Long $INTC from client post Dec 2nd:

"INTC - gorgeous bounce off the 10W at 35 on cue, getting back above 37.16 monthly support and 40 monthly trendline resistance. I’m afraid my bullish thesis may have been buried as I posted it on the chart. I will pull out and highlight https://t.co/mkrw5M4Usr


Summary: Short TMUS targeting 190; short CVNA targeting 288-292.84 on weekly 50MA.

•ORCL long awaited swing short from Wed Sept 10th at 339.69 into “NOT IF JUST WHEN” 243.49 finally tagged TODAY!! Congrats shorts!!
•TMUS swing short also still in play with one of my fave trend reversal patterns post gap down on wkly below 248, breaking 208 target on way to 190 soon.
•CVNA swing short into 292.84 target with 50W right below at 288 where it’s headed next.

UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE AT https://t.co/uD7G1gC9t8


CVNA swing short into 292.84 target with 50W right below at 288 where it's headed next


Summary: Software/tech remain structurally broken post growth-to-value rotation; any oversold bounce won't repair major support breaks, staying bearish.

As I said to clients Wed:
Software Needs An Intervention!!

After calling this growth-to-value rotation Nov & saying it should working into Feb... we are there!

But big picture, software stocks are really busted & for good reason. #AI #SaaS

$IGV $QQQ $XLK $XLP $IYT $XLB $XLE

---

GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

Sign up for more market timing calls reviewed in our YouTube channel, or better yet: JOIN US LIVE!

A reflexive, over-sold bounce won't quickly repair the major long-term support & investor confidence breaks. $XLK

 https://t.co/uinYjGijM0


A reflexive, over-sold bounce won't quickly repair the major long-term support & investor confidence breaks


the de-dollarization movement is also one really big reason why Gold is rising over the past year

Summary: Bearish USD on de-dollarization + tariff spiral; bullish gold on same de-dollarization trend continuing.

Let's go back, way back to a year ago when I wrote for clients a long post entitled:

BALANCE OF TRADE IS THE END GAME

"I have written repeatedly about the current administration putting into play policies that would “reduce demand of USD” by foreign investors on top of the de-dollarization movement already under way.

We can see that movement grow - from trade settled locally between nations or in gold, to China’s mandate to move away from oil as largest imported commodity and with it their dependence on the petrol-dollar in trade.

The Problem is clear: US production has become less & less competitive.

The "Solution", according to Trump, Lutnik & Bessent: The loss of competitiveness from US manufacturers means the USD has to fall! And that, they contend, will save the US manufacturer.

The de-dollarization movement is also one really big reason why Gold is rising over the past year. And ironically, this is why China has risen the past few decades."

So this news out on Trump torpedoing Korea is part and parcel of his STRATEGY OF CHOAS, another post I did for clients in March of last year.

What else did I write on this topic?

The more the dollar falls, the more Trump will raise tariffs. ✅

https://t.co/gQyLKiG4Qr


Summary: Strongly bullish copper, FCX, COPX, and XME; author teases new upside target well above prior $6/lb call, framing metals as the new secular bull theme.

Me in July '25 last year:

"Trump making EVERYTHING that uses copper more expensive for US manufactures and consumers.  🙄 But it is very good for my rec’d $FCX swing long with $COPX & $XME - from May for clients!"

Now that XME has tripled & copper spot price is at my $6/lb target (from 2023), you will not believe my upside target on copper!!

METALS ARE THE NEW OIL

Chamath's best trade idea for 2026 is not a stock. It is copper.

"We are still completely underestimating how short we are in terms of the global demand and supply dynamics of a handful of critical elements that we need.

The asset that is set up to go absolutely parabolic is https://t.co/jXvD5GKokB


very good for my rec'd $FCX swing long with $COPX & $XME


Summary: Maintains long-term targets of $6K gold and $150 silver; near-term volatility expected but longer digestion period ahead.

I still have $6K gold & $150 silver.
Doesn't mean we can't have volatility.

I called the OCT 2025 metals volatility in advance & I caught this one too:

Warned Jan 22nd, then 28th, then 29th.
Now we see how long the digestion period, but this one should take longer. Unless we bomb Iran.

@SamanthaLaDuc What am
I missing not a subscriber but video you shared said 6k gold By you


$JD has the edge. The market just doesn't see it yet.

Summary: Bullish JD; market underestimates its edge, endorsed by analyst who called BABA early.

$JD has the edge. The market just doesn’t see it yet.

Geoffrey knows. He saw $BABA early and China when they were “uninvestible” and now $JD…

Get the EDGE:
https://t.co/SICj0bSILF

$BABA, $JD , Meituan
The antitrust regulator is launching a probe for excessive competition in fast retail.

The Whole sector is jumping on the news, BABA and Meituan the most.

JD is jumping the least on the news because JD launched the involution war.

Why?
Because they can and


Summary: Long RIVN targeting ~22 in Q1; short TLT targeting 85.48 by EOY.

"Short Chases/Swings of late: NVDA, AAPL, META, MRVL, NFLX, CRDO, HOOD, AVGO, ORCL

Consumer Cyclical Longs (from late Nov): LULU, JBHT, ANF, EL, DG, DLTR, ADBE, CRM, TGT

RIVN - Swing long from 14 working GREAT & said I was bullish into AI & Autonomous day before Friday it spiked low to high 24% - hitting wkly resistance at the 30W near 18.77. Still in good shape for higher into 22 in Q1.

TLT - working nicely lower, hitting 87.24 on target with 85.48 potentially by EOY"

UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE.
Good morning!!

Macro-to-Micro In A Nutshell

sample of what I post for clients every day after my trading room - if interested ;-)

https://t.co/2cxyAz372d


Summary: Short META on technicals; sees a major trend reversal to the downside.

@timztweet44 THAT!!
anyway, I see META as a YUGE trend reversal short - on technicals alone.

@SamanthaLaDuc Pretty much invalidates any user activity metrics they try to spin about how much people use their apps


I forgot to even talk about RECESSION RISK on oil demand. 🙅♀

Summary: Stays short crude oil into 2026; adds recession risk to demand bears on top of EV adoption and renewables competitiveness.

Why I’m Staying Short #Oil Into 2026

Still bearish on #crudeoil despite widespread bullish calls - Rick Rule etc.  I have focused on falling global demand, rising EV adoption & Geoffrey's take on renewables as cost-competitive. @GraphCall
$WTIC #CL1

https://t.co/V1yrzM8SnW https://t.co/t9DNdaLyxF


Summary: Holding swing long positions in ORCL, LULU, RIVN, and BA.

Update on Swing Longs:

$ORCL $LULU $RIVN $BA https://t.co/DRfuCyz8Xs


Summary: Bitcoin is done; gold/silver benefit from real commodity shortages; US equities to retreat as anti-financialization policies undermine buyback-driven returns.

My THINGS OVER PAPER™mantra I've posted since 2020 is in full view these days!

Now Trump wants to discourage "financialization" to incentivize US investment in US. One sector to start: defense, where he has leverage given massive govt contracts.

Bitcoin is done! BTCUSD was offramp for inflation that drove NON-productive speculation. Then, finally, Gold & Silver attracted both physcial & spec investors as REAL COMMODITY SHORTAGES trump imagined.

Now, how will Trump give the stock market a "soft landing" if he is to punish corporate stock financialization which is responsible (with easy money & liquidity support) for outsized-US market returns?!

Policies dictate price. If anti-financialization policies force capitalism to retreat, so too will the economy. The stock market IS the economy.

How long before he is pressured to talk this back? Or will he actually roll it out? The slower the 'better' as equities would retreat with economic growth with UST collateral with US dollar.

US was the best performing stock market for one major reason along with earnings and that was stock buybacks.

Companies would show increased earnings due to buybacks and executive compensation was linked to stock prices .. so there was vested interest in seeing higher stocks https://t.co/NUaowCyGCZ


Gold & Silver attracted both physical & spec investors as REAL COMMODITY SHORTAGES trump imagined.


Summary: Bearish GME; dismisses Burry's bull thesis — calls it a money-losing pump with no credible path to $100B.

No.
Just No.

No, Ryan Cohen will not become anything close to Warren Buffett - not even his driver.

No, Burry can’t be serious or taken seriously if he is seriously pumping a stock like
$GME, which is where money goes to die.

No is a complete sentence.

In short, Burry argues that if $GME can rally into the $30s, doubling the tangible BV to $20, it would become the catalyst to unleash Ryan Cohen and give him the necessary resources to become the next Buffett resulting in $GME hitting $100B in market cap and $10B in annual


Summary: Institutions de-risking into offshore gold; author endorses bullish gold thesis on US jurisdictional/geopolitical concerns.

US institutions are buying gold offshore. JPM moved its gold trading desk to Singapore last week. Folks are getting justifiably nervous.

Venezuela
Epstein
Dollar

The thing discussed last week is no longer speculation: for some reason, US institutions are de-risking away from US jurisdiction for their gold holdings. My thread below suggests they already shadow-accumulated gold and it is slowly surfacing now.
HT @KingKong9888 https://t.co/HHpII137bA


Summary: After a -10% drawdown, author implies gold/silver/miners move is not done — bullish continuation.

That gold volatility timing was good for -10% drawdown. Now what if I told ya it doesn't look done... Clients know where I see it going next!

$GLD $SLV $GDX #GC


Summary: CNC and OSCR remain elevated on political risk that ACA subsidies could be reinstated via discharge petition.

"Speaker Johnson has misread his caucus. He made the call to Trump to end the ACA subsidy talk. Now that is blowing up as talk of more retirements and talk of more discharge petitions come forward. He may be in danger of losing power and then so will Trump…this is why CNC  and OSCR are still up. There is a chance that a discharge petition gets the ACA subsidies reinstated…" @DrBenJamminK on our team🎩


my thesis April 2024 when I made the call for Crude oil's new range of $60-40 by end of 2025

Summary: Bearish crude oil; global demand decline driven by China peak demand supports $60–40/bbl range by end of 2025.

See, China’s falling oil demand continue - which peaked in 2023 as Geoffrey accurately called THEN - translates into GLOBAL falling oil demand, which was my thesis April 2024 when I made the call for Crude oil’s new range of $60-40 by end of 2025. 🕺💃

#WTIC #OOTT

1/2
Gasoline demand down 9% from peak.
Told ya'.
You think it stops in China? 🤭

Far from a peak, China's gasoline demand is estimated to have fallen 9% in October on the year to 12.5 million tons https://t.co/GzmZVpekVp


Summary: Bullish on Rivian and Xpeng into 2026 based on options flows and vanna dynamics.

$RIVN & $XPEV Dealer Option Review

@WizOfOps demos his new screener & vanna tools to highlight how Rivian and Xpeng match my views for a bullish pattern into 2026.
In this short video, Jason interprets option flows, vanna dynamics & how to play using longer-dated expiries. https://t.co/BEMbgn8iBg


Summary: Swing short setups in CRDO, HOOD, NFLX, NVDA; simultaneous swing longs in LULU, XRT, JBHT.

Updating swing short growth play set ups Thursday for clients: $CRDO, $HOOD, $NFLX & $NVDA - same time rec'd swing longs in $LULU, $XRT and $JBHT.

Lots more VALUE names long & GROWTH plays short I review live & daily for members. Join us! https://t.co/cPA7ZNCXN0


same time rec'd swing longs in $LULU, $XRT and $JBHT


industry='Integrated Freight & Logistics'


Summary: Shares JPM note implying NVDA's soft-guide points to materially better Blackwell/Rubin revenue vs consensus through C4Q26.

JPM on $NVDA

The slide was visibility into $500b revenues (for 20m GPUs), of which 6m have already shipped. So implication is $350b Blackwell & Rubin revenue from C4Q25 through C4Q26... Not including China.

Comparing this to consensus F4Q25 DC revenue $56b & F26 revenue $258b only gets you $314b (those forecasts may include some Hopper, but also China).

Bottom-line sounds like a materially better soft-guide. Wonder, though, if they can ship this.... I have no idea if he intended to soft guide up... Strange (Joshua Meyers, JPM)"


Summary: Reiterates swing short on NFLX and SPOT with downside targets still in play.

As I was saying…

$NFLX is the swing short that keeps giving - with $SPOT ironically. Targets still in play!


Summary: Bullish metals, miners, and materials on US govt subsidies reclaiming supply/price control from China; price floor coming soon.

I did this premarket rant for clients Thursday. Then was sent this video making the rounds that matched my warning:

Metals & Miners Price Floor Coming Soon

$GLD $SLV $XME $COPX $XAGUSD $XAUUSD

US subsidizing metals, miners & materials to reclaim supply & price control from China will support my METALS ARE THE NEW OIL™ & US GOVT AS VENTURE CAPITALIST™to stimulate reshoring, inflation & higher prices in THINGS OVER PAPER™

---

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https://t.co/9JH1BxlV8G


US subsidizing metals, miners & materials to reclaim supply & price control from China will support my METALS ARE THE NEW OIL


METALS ARE THE NEW OIL™ & US GOVT AS VENTURE CAPITALIST™to stimulate reshoring, inflation & higher prices in THINGS OVER PAPER


Summary: 2026 intermarket roadmap: long solar, gold, silver, copper, SMIDs, value, RoW; short oil, USD, tech pause; yields at inflection.

My 2026 INTERMARKET ANALYSIS ROADMAP For Market/Sector Direction & Key Themes

THE JANUARY BAROMETER
WE. ARE. HERE.

BREADTH TREND IS FRIEND UNTIL IT ENDS...
GROWTH-TO-VALUE REBALANCING
TECH TAKES A PAUSE
SMIDs OUTPERFORM

ENERGY REVISITED...
METALS ARE THE NEW OIL BUT NOT OIL COMPANIES
LONG SOLAR/SHORT OIL
COMMODITIES OUTPERFORM

METALS ARE STILL BULLISH...
GOLD TO OUTPERFORM SPX, AGAIN
SILVER'S PARABOLA HAS A RAISED FLOOR
PALLADIUM & PLATINUM UPDATED
COPPER COILING

THE BIG MACRO TRENDS...
DOLLAR DIGESTING BEFORE DEBASING
US YIELDS AT INFLECTION POINT
REST OF WORLD  OUTPERFORMING

BONUS:
YIELD CURVE SCREAMS WARSH AS NEXT FED CHAIR

Wow. Sincere thanks!!
@gave_vincent @LukeGromen are 🔥🎩🧠

BTW: I just worked two full days on my next post to be released to https://t.co/2KkP0W5AGq clients 1st then spread out to Substack over time.

It's my secret sauce that helps me come up with my market timing calls in https://t.co/vYz9EDMgap


IWM Russell 2000 small cap; IJH S&P 400 mid cap ETF


IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value; VTV Vanguard Value ETF


Summary: Long TE targeting $10 from $6; also bullish ASTS as related solar-in-space play.

From Nov 5th client post:

"TE - new name, looks very supportive for higher big picture > 3.36 wkly close. (Trina Solar ancillary play from China)

Now $6 on way to $10.
$ASTS

$TE: Fun Fact - did you know that $ASTS AST SpaceMobile takes commercial grade silicon-based solar modules and hardens them for use in space?

Historically, space companies used extremely expensive Gallium Arsenide solar modules both for their higher efficiency (30-45%) and https://t.co/7AcRkiJhG1


Summary: Targets gold up to $6000 and BTC down to $65,000.

Gold into $6000
&
BTCUSD into $65,000

That should do it. 😉


Summary: Bullish GOOGL as winner of the AI assistant race as Gemini 3 displaces ChatGPT.

Can you feel the #OpenAI burn and $NVDA GPU churn?

$GOOGL

WINNER TAKE ALL™

Holy shit. I’ve used ChatGPT every day for 3 years. Just spent 2 hours on Gemini 3. I’m not going back. The leap is insane — reasoning, speed, images, video… everything is sharper and faster. It feels like the world just changed, again. ❤ 🤖 https://t.co/HruXhc16Mq


Forced liquidation BEFORE a MARGIN HIKE on ALL precious metals is one way to temper the buying frenzy. #Gold #Silver #NotDone

Summary: Author implies margin-forced liquidation is a temporary dip in a continuing precious metals rally; #NotDone signals bullish continuation.

CME MARGIN HIKE ALERT ON ALL PRECIOUS METALS

A Second MARGIN increase in 3 days.
Maintenance increases
A 33% increase for gold futures
A 36% increase for silver futures
A 25% increase for platinum futures
A 14% increase for palladium futures

This is going into effect Monday Feb https://t.co/2TMNN88D9C


Summary: Short NVDA: break of $183 targets $153; $173 support won't hold on next test, expects flush.

@Seniorstrategen $NVDA is a short on break of $183 to $153.
It won't hold $173 next time. It'll just flush.

And it's Ms. LaDuc thank you very much ;-)

@SamanthaLaDuc Guess Mrs LaDuc is running the buy puts playbook from the april lows😄


Summary: Endorses JD and XPEV as undervalued opportunities crowded out by government agenda.

@whrohde $JD in particular!! $XPEV too.
Agree, US government has an agenda and American investors sadly love to be lied to.

@SamanthaLaDuc It happens to $NIO and $JD both growing at stellar rates but govt intentionally have crowded out them when they are cheap like never before… value everywhere but investors blind only buying US bubbles


$BIDU evolving into the backbone of China's AI compute layer wasn't on anyone's bingo card

Summary: Bullish BIDU as China's AI compute backbone; bearish NVDA as Deepseek replaces its hardware with Baidu Kunlun chips.

$BIDU evolving into the backbone of China’s AI compute layer wasn't on anyone's bingo card.

This weekend, Deepseek completely replaced its $NVDA hardware with baidu kunlun chips.

Alternate lede:
DEEPSEEK DUMPS NVIDIA FOR KUNLUN CHIPS

https://t.co/h0Fg4j44Ph

---

CNBC even concedes…

https://t.co/V2xdzeOpNJ


Summary: QQQ upside target 631.19 ('not if but when'); SPX equivalent ~6925, expected by Friday.

"QQQ - I have 631.19 (not if but when upside target)."

Given clients Mon/Tues/Wed for Friday.
ALMOST THERE ;-)
= ~ $SPX $6925

🔥💃Upgrade to PRO or JOIN US LIVE!

Some Macro but lots more Micro: VIX, QQQ, ASTS, TE, GOOGL, WVE, LLY, XLV, NFLX, SPOT, RIVN, ORCL, BA, CVNA

https://t.co/sAEDM0ncSh


Metals likely won't stop going up UNTIL Fed hikes rates.

Summary: Bullish gold and silver: metals keep rising as long as Fed stays on hold; yield suppression is inflationary.

Metals likely won’t stop going up UNTIL Fed hikes rates.

Another unpopular opinion.

Yield suppression is INFLATIONARY

#Silver #Gold

The US Inflation Rate (CPI) ended 2025 at 2.7%, the 58th consecutive month above the Fed's 2% target level. The last time inflation was this high for this long? 1997, when the Fed Funds Rate was over 5%. The Fed should be hiking interest rates, not cutting. https://t.co/7VsmAOG7ag


already rec'd 11/28 to clients as such & gorgeous trend reversal. $UPS

Summary: Long UPS; already recommended to clients as a double, citing a gorgeous trend reversal.

@PantexCap Agree - already rec’d 11/28 to clients as such & gorgeous trend reversal. $UPS


I forgot we shorted $CVNA too! 😂 I break down growing risk in $CVNA tied to credit pressure.

Summary: Short CVNA on credit pressure; renewed interest in ZM on investment news; CSCO as a favourite trend long.

I forgot we shorted $CVNA too! 😂

One Chase, One Swing, One Trend: $CVNA, $ZM, $CSCO

I break down growing risk in $CVNA tied to credit pressure.

Review $ZM renewed interest after investment-related news, and highlight $CSCO as a fave trend long..

https://t.co/XN5gshViNK


Review $ZM renewed interest after investment-related news


Summary: Endorses bullish case on WVE, highlighting team alert at $13s ahead of move to $20.

This is why I love working with a team.
@DrBenJamminK alerted our members when $WVE was in the $13s. It exploded to $20. He gave the bullish case well ;-)

This was my premarket rant, live - even before I had my coffee...💃

$WVE 14 to 20 😳🤣🚀
$LLY nice short with $XLV

UPDATE on my fave trend: $ASTS 🫶
Bonus: $RKLB with $TE 😉

Chase short in $GOOGL, long in $ORCL
And continued swing shorts in $NFLX & $SPOT

Have a great week!! https://t.co/CjBiJpzi7U


Summary: Short FNMA; F&F privatization thesis is bogus.

Great point on
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

F&F “privatization” is a fugazy

$FNMA short thesis

The 50 year mortgage idea is so idiotic. A lot of people won’t even live long enough to pay it back. Plus the only way this can work is through a massive government subsidy from  @FannieMae @FreddieMac. Yet the fact that the White House is actually talking about this only


Summary: Short USD (after bounce), long gold/silver/industrial metals and Canadian miners for next two years as metals replace oil as key commodity.

No like Carney?
😉

Personally, I think the best trade on Venezuela has nothing to do with oil long or short, and it has nothing to do with Canada long or short…

If China does nothing to retaliate for losing face & access to 6% of its oil supply, Trump “wins”.

But more likely, the trend n falling demand for USD & UST continues which pushes dollar lower (after a bounce) and metals higher.

METALS ARE THE NEW OIL™
(as I’ve been saying well over a year)

In fact, that USD bounce is a great time to convert dollars to CAD and buy gold + silver + industrial metal & rare earth mineral MINERS in Canada… and just hold them for the next two years 😉🔥🤔

@mario4thenorth Canada just lost its oil leverage wrt CUSMA. We need to aggressively focus on rare earth elements https://t.co/lVM1wyKaPb


XMA Canadian materials ETF; REMX rare earth/strategic metals


Summary: Long AMD: author frames it as the next NVDA, backed by Lisa Su's 35%+ annual revenue growth and 80% AI data center CAGR guidance.

$AMD the new $NVDA

Per Bloomberg: Annual revenue growth will average more than 35% a year over the next three to five years, Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su said Tuesday at a company event in New York…Su projected the company’s AI data center revenue will increase by an average of 80% over the next three to five years…The total AI chip market, including accelerators, processors and networking products, will reach $1 trillion by 2030, Su said.


Summary: Middle East/EU war escalation risk not priced in; implied bullish on geopolitical risk assets, particularly oil.

Pro-Israel, Epstein-compromised UK Prime Minister Starmer authorizes US strikes on Iran from British military bases

So not just Middle East but EU war now

Iran already struck base on Cypress & French base in UAE

Iran declaring “jihad” & “fatwa” against America…

Not Priced In

Prepare For A Protracted Middle East War

No, I do not think even Khamenei's death, if true, will change the fact that Iran Risk Is Not Priced In
 https://t.co/Wb8BCiX2zJ


Summary: Bearish near-term targets: QQQ to 603, SPX to 6650, SPY to 666/662 after prior downside levels hit.

“QQQ target given Mon for 618.42 into 613: HIT. Now looking for 603…

SPX target given Mon for 6749 into 6700: almost there. Now looking for 6650...

SPY target for 666 with overshoot to 662....”

RISK HAPPENS FAST!

UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE AT https://t.co/uD7G1gC9t8

ALL LEVELS UPDATED LIVE THIS MORNING!!


SPY target for 666 with overshoot to 662....


Summary: Still short AVGO with updated downside targets; high conviction, not done to the downside.

Go you have my targets?

$AVGO has been a HIGH CONVICTION short from 374.23 to "not if but when 308.78 which hit yday - with updated short targets this am from my live trading room. #notdone

https://t.co/dgkJ5vwEx7

@SamanthaLaDuc AVGO under the 200 SMA & EMA as of this moment..huge tell if it continues. https://t.co/cnUI3rDqE9


Summary: Long AA, MT, FCX, RIO as oversold commodity debasement plays on falling USD; gold and silver also benefiting.

"Debasement" Trades

Falling USD is driving “debasement trades" beyond  #gold & #silver. Check out my oversold commodity longs like $AA, $MT, $FCX and $RIO. 🫶

A steepening 10Y–2Y curve above 0.64bp raises macro risks.

https://t.co/x0sJdd5L0J


my oversold commodity longs like $AA, $MT


my oversold commodity longs like $AA, $MT, $FCX


my oversold commodity longs like $AA, $MT, $FCX and $RIO

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'


Falling USD is driving debasement trades beyond #gold & #silver


Summary: OpenAI margin news will algorithmically pressure GOOGL and bid up MSFT regardless of fundamentals.

Margin expansion at #OpenAI

SUUUURRRRRE

but whatever, it will hit $GOOGL & bid $MSFT cuz algos don’t do forensic accounting.

OPENAI BOOSTS COMPUTE MARGINS AMID AI RACE

OpenAI has significantly improved margins on its paid products, according to The Information. Its “compute margin,” measuring revenue after model-running costs, reached about 70% in October, up from 52% at the end of 2024 and roughly


bid $MSFT cuz algos don't do forensic accounting


Summary: Expects JD to awaken/rally by mid-to-end of Q1.

@SamanthaLaDuc Hopefully $jd finally awakens from its slumber


Summary: Still holding AVGO short and LULU long; both positions actively working.

Freaken awesome $AVGO short set up.
And $LULU long still working. 🫢

$LULU Long $AVGO Short

From my pre $AVGO earnings AND again pre-market Friday... where to chase short AVGO & where to cover. Down -12% but even the trigger of 374 to 359 made for a 10X return in Fri's $360P! $LULU also solid pre-earnings play. https://t.co/fzDIDqGz97


Summary: Long CSCO with $82 price target; still active swing long, expects target will be hit.

"CSCO - of my 3 top swing longs from past few months (GOOGL, AAPL, CSCO) - even during the pullbacks last month - the one that has yet to hit my price target is CSCO with 82. Not if just when."


Summary: AAPL targeting $285 monthly resistance; AMZN still has $264.78 upside target after ATH spike.

“For tonight, given AAPL & AMZN reported, here’s what you had in advance: )

•AAPL - $285 is monthly resistance and 12.75 Fib level for taget higher. Well… Apple just hit 284.99 afterhours. That is called CLOSE ENOUGH. If you are long using calls, and you are worred about weakness before the open Friday, a tactic that I like is to SELL SHORT the stock here to lock in those gains.

•AMZN - In my Live Trading Room this morning I expected they would crush it & be in ATH territory. My AI transcript notes lack the same enthusiasm, but Amazon did spike 14% afterhours! I still have 264.78 as upside price target.:

“Amazon, seen as the “slowest performer” in the AI arms race, is considered a potential surprise that could “outperform” and reach all-time highs if it demonstrates innovation and scale.”

All from yesterday morning 👇


I still have 264.78 as upside price target


Summary: DOW and LYB near a bottom, tradeable chase over a few weeks despite significant damage.

@SLawohio $DOW & $LYB are close but only for a chase (few wks). Much distruction. But yes, I track each week.

@SamanthaLaDuc You seeing any signs of bottoming in some of the chemical names


Summary: Reaffirms long solar / short oil pair trade through 2025–2026, naming FSLR, TAN, FLNC, TE as the long legs.

Chamath pitching a SOLAR ROTATION of size was not on my bingo card…

My Long Solar, Short Oil call for all 2025/2026 is still 🔥

$FSLR $TAN $FLNC $TE

The next shoe to drop?

A $500B Tax Equity Fund can pay the electricity costs of all US homeowners forever by paying for each home to get solar + storage.

If this happens, it will be historic.

The OBBBA already has the tax law codified to enable the Mag7 to do this right now.


Summary: Swing long basket of value stocks (LMT, GD, TXT, UPS, NKE, URI) as they push higher while tech pulls back.

Growth Shorts To Fund Value Longs (Part 2)

From new blue skies to oversold trend-reversals in process, there are a bunch of great value stocks pushing higher - while tech pulls back - that are working great as profitable swing longs. Join us!

$LMT $GD $TXT $UPS $NKE $URI https://t.co/OjaWwuGHAm

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Summary: Bullish precious metals with caveat during yen/VIX spikes; author tracks Gold:SPY ratio closely.

@Nicolas48963641 Yes indeed. My Gold:SPY ratio has not triggered above 2016 levels however. Trust me: I track closely.

Precious metals are still VERY bullish - except during yen & VIX spikes.

@SamanthaLaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc the ratio gold vs sp500 looking very very bullish for gold for the next years


Summary: Bearish Japan: Nikkei parabola ending, PM unstable; short Nikkei/EWJ, USDJPY implied higher (yen weaker).

Japan's new PM is not going to last long.
And neither is that parabola in the Nikkei.
$USDJPY #NIKK $EWJ

🇨🇳🇯🇵China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism solemnly reminds Chinese tourists to avoid traveling to Japan in the near future, and Chinese tourists already in Japan should pay close attention to the local security situation.
#CHINA #JAPAN #GEOPOLITICS


Summary: Short financials: AXP working, bearish XLF/GS/C on sector weakness, and newly flagging ALLY as a short candidate.

Losing Financials; Already Lost Consumer Lending

Long before Citrini🙄

Consumer lending weakness in play since OCTOBER. Then early Feb warning we were losing Financials. Recent $AXP short working great! $XLF $GS $C

Plus continued downside in $CVNVA!
Just noticed $ALLY ;-) https://t.co/Ga2hHItrB1

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Summary: Still bearish on NVDA following earnings report.

As I said, I'm still bearish after NVDA reports ;-)


Summary: Bullish gold/silver/copper miner ETFs on thesis that US government will act as venture capitalist investing in miners.

"Why is a policy directive that subsidizes demand that initiates a PRICE WAR with China important for miners? Because it’s the kind of proclamation that drives my thesis of US GOVERNMENT AS VENTURE CAPITALIST. US govt investing/buying gold/silver/copper miners is coming."

$GDX $GDXJ $SIL $SILJ $XLB $XME

Macro Sidebar of Importance
&
A LOT OF TRADE UPDATES
   - Tech Shorts
   - Value Longs
 https://t.co/lvXBppPrXn


Silver isn't just 'going up.' It's repricing because the system behind it is cracking.

Summary: Bullish silver: endorses thesis that silver is undergoing a structural repricing, not merely trending up.

Risk happens fast.
Silver moved even faster.

‘Silver isn’t just “going up.”
It’s repricing because the system behind it is cracking.’

(A THREAD) : What’s coming next in #silver won’t be a trend, it will be a moment. The kind that almost never happens… and the kind people talk about for decades

Bookmark this. Screenshot this. Read twice.

The silver market is entering a phase we’ve only seen a handful of times https://t.co/gRIwUCaSQA


Summary: Remains bearish oil (short-the-rip only) while staying very bullish on refiners.

No - I have not turned bullish on oil. Still very bullish refiners though ;-)

I can see the massive shorts in VIX, but that doesn't make me bullish VIX - except for a trade when the shorts unwind on a macro trigger... but the Trump Admin (WH, FED, TREASURY) work very hard to control those triggers. Then they position FOR the trigger & my job is to see their footprints before the move. ;-)

I can see the massive shorts in TLT, but that doesn't make me bullish TLT - except for a trade when shorts unwind with yen... which I timed with precision last year (July 19th) which lasted one month. I repeatedly told clients I saw no yen carry trade unwind coming in 2025. And I look for it everyday as that is my job. Recession/Unemployment can pull that trigger, but not here yet.

I can see NO massive shorts or longs in CFTC in OIL (as posted yday to clients) as they have better things to trade. I can see an argument of why Trump invaded Venezuela to procure their heavy stuff for US refining ... BUT even that doesn't make me bullish oil. It only makes me more bearish!

I don't see a reason to be bullish oil except for ROTATION... like I wrote about in March 2021 when I called for WTI to double from $65.65. We hit $130 in early March 2022. ;-)

Here's how a commodity 'super cycle' can work: 1st gold triggers, then silver, then the other precious & industrial & base metals advance... after all that inflationary build-up in metals, oil catches a bid on INFLATION ROTATION.

But oil spiking higher is the most violent to Trump's economic agenda, so VZ infrastructure build-out needs to start NOW if they really want to control oil price later.

Better bet in the near term, Trump is trying to avoid an oil & gas industry recession (worse than 2014-2106) from the path of oil right now: deflation in prices < $54 WTIC.

So for all kinds of strategic reasons - macro, fundamental, technical - I cannot be bullish oil for more than a trade and even then it will be a short-the-rip event.

@SamanthaLaDuc @GraphCall Sam, have you finally turned bullish on oil?


I cannot be bullish oil for more than a trade and even then it will be a short-the-rip event


Summary: Short BTC (fraud), long gold on dollar debasement, long miners still running, short USD bounce.

👍 here are mine:

Bitcoin is a fraud;

Presidential grift & over-reach are not bullish;

Dollar debasement IS the reason to own gold;

Trump’s China trade war is the reason commodities are rising;

Miners (my “outliers revert with velocity call Apr ‘24) are not done;

AI is deflationary to jobs;

Fed has a consensus problem & Warsh is a Trojan horse;

Iran risk is not priced in & USD bounce will not last;

2026 is the year where inflation will start to matter more than liquidity.

Trump is a lame & sitting duck.

Micheal Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital & GLIndexes, returns to the Metals and Miners pod and shares why Bitcoin is really the canary in the coal mine, why the Supreme Court decision isn't bullish, what's driving gold and precious metals, why he doesn't believe there's a https://t.co/qibZXpjGy0


Miners (my "outliers revert with velocity call Apr '24) are not done


Summary: Bearish long-end Treasuries; Fed independence concerns mean long-end bond holders remain screwed.

Irony:
Most Fed critics (even #EndTheFed bashers) I’ve followed over the years are now scared to death that loss of Fed independence means Trump gains control of monetary policy.  🥺

Long-end bond holders are still screwed.

NEW: Trump's decision on the next Fed chair comes down to who he believes will be more successful in delivering substantially lower rates, which has struggled to get under Powell. That prerequisite creates a credibility problem for whoever is selected, one that will be difficult https://t.co/rDSYWF7AQd


Summary: Long INTC; thesis targets 2x book value = ~$53/share on undervaluation, fab assets, and potential Apple foundry win in 2026.

Swing Long $INTC from client post Dec 2nd:

"INTC - gorgeous bounce off the 10W at 35 on cue, getting back above 37.16 monthly support and 40 monthly trendline resistance. I’m afraid my bullish thesis may have been buried as I posted it on the chart. I will pull out and highlight here for easier reference:

INTC has a market cap of $190Bn and book value of $106Bn which is roughly $22.22/share - as I have mentioned past few years: Intel is very undervalued.

Opportunity: Even though INTC has nearly doubled in price - post US GOVERNMENT AS VENTURE CAPITALIST...

With over $200Bn worth of advanced fabs, IP & other assets on the books, and if large “tier one” external foundry customers such as Apple are on board in 2026 ...

then a 2x book value = $250Bn makret cap = ~$53/share."

WE ARE THERE 💃

Join us for my next high-conviction chase, swing or trend trade - along with my amazing team who post their detailed analysis & trades in our member portfolios!!


Summary: Bullish Silver, drawing analogy to the 1973 silver spike amid current macro backdrop.

BTW 1973 is also a spike year for Silver.
- Geoffrey reminds 😉😉

https://t.co/SICj0bSaW7

Engage with us live for more insights like these.

1973 IS COMING - BUT NOT FOR OIL

There is falling global dollar AND treasury demand, but not for US equities.

25% of USTs are owned by foreigners (down from 33% a decade ago)

25% of US Equities are owned by foreigners (up from 18%)

USD share of global foreign reserves as https://t.co/efmDeSGpoi


Well someone is hedging the Euro & EU… #Italy #GOLD

Summary: Bullish gold as a hedge against Euro/EU deterioration amid Italy-ECB gold ownership dispute.

Indications of EU fragmentation grow.

(Gold as proxy for EU deterioration,
Growing dissent among euro nations on gold treatment.)

Italy’s renewed push to assert state ownership over its gold reserves has triggered formal objections from the European Central Bank, which argues https://t.co/w5CdDeaUCu


Summary: Bearish NVDA: data center capex math ($8T / $800B interest) makes infinite GPU demand thesis dead on arrival.

Infinite GPU demand at risk…
$NVDA

Unlikely given expected $8T of capex is needed to create 100GW of data center energy that requires $800B profit JUST to service interest expense.

D.O.A.

$IBM CEO says that at today’s costs it takes about $80B to build & fill a 1 GW AI data center, so the ~100 GW of announced capacity implies roughly $8T of capex & “no way you’re going to get a return on that,” since you’d need “about $800B of profit just to pay for the interest” https://t.co/76I5OpsRTa


Summary: Still long uranium via CCJ/URA; reaffirms a 10-year trend from Nov 2020 now only halfway through.

Fascinating how uranium is just getting on the radar for many 🤔

I strongly recommended November 2020 as a 10 year trend Long play of which we are only halfway through!

I have many client write ups on this, repeating the same mantra.

THINGS OVER PAPER™

$CCJ $URA etc etc

Uranium looks like it's the next commodity to move higher.

Then again, every commodity looks like the next commodity to move higher.

Long the Periodic Table. All of it.

$U.UN https://t.co/8E8ynff5Bu


Summary: Short TTWO at open with potential add after 200-day break; Google Genie seen as watershed threat to video game industry names TTWO, U, RBLX.

industry='Electronic Gaming & Multimedia'

Luke at the open in my live trading room:

"shorted TTWO at the open and it just broke the 200 day. so i may add here. wrote a lengthy post about the turing test being passed across multiple audio/visual forms, but last nights google genie release was a watershed moment for video game industry. @DJ_Tao 🔥🎇🎉 $TTWO $U $RBLX

https://t.co/AYGh1aU1FJ


Summary: Short SPOT highlighted as especially working within the tech short basket.

Growth Shorts To Fund Value Longs (Part 1)

$AMD $TSLA $ORCL $NFLX $AAPL $CSCO $AVGO $PLTR $SPOT

I cover active short trades across major tech and AI stocks, highlighting failed breakouts, key downside targets, and why many names remain weak. https://t.co/O5xF6Y7qdK


Earnings growth for China's tech megacaps … poised to overtake MAG 7

Summary: Bullish China tech megacaps via KWEB/FXI/KSEC on earnings growth poised to surpass MAG 7.

Earnings growth for China’s tech megacaps … poised to overtake MAG 7

$KWEB $FXI $KSEC https://t.co/xb7rd6dzu2


Summary: MBS buying = QE → bullish commodities/gold/equities as debasement plays; bearish USD and bitcoin as liquidity flows elsewhere.

THAT'S QE ⚠🚀

Fed bought Mortgage Backed Securities during Covid, but this time IS different:

“Buying assets while inflation is high is road to perdition." #MBS

I wrote about it here:
https://t.co/s1wbPygP5o

see sections:
👉Leveraged Collateral Shortage, Meet Fed Buying Assets

👉Phase III of this Monetary Illusion & Money Bubble

"Real Commodities are your hedge against inflation if Fed begins buying assets again, because that liquidity they inject will go right to debasement (falling dollar) trades: equities, gold, commodities - not US treasuries, dollars, bitcoin."

NEW: Trump says he's instructing unnamed representatives to buy $200 billion in MBS in a bid to narrow mortgage spreads and bring down rates. https://t.co/gTX89jVCfi


that liquidity they inject will go right to debasement (falling dollar) trades: equities, gold, commodities


Summary: Short AVGO targeting $331.42 then $308.78; long LULU pushing through $220 target.

$AVGO all the way to/thru $331.42 where it can bounce before $308.78, and...

$LULU just as much a beast higher as AVGO was lower. Pushing up/thru my $220 target!!

Freaken awesome $AVGO short set up.
And $LULU long still working. 🫢


$LULU just as much a beast higher as AVGO was lower. Pushing up/thru my $220 target!!


Summary: Endorses copper bull case; supply disruption risk at major mines (incl. FCX/Grasberg) is underpriced, supporting higher copper and copper-miner prices.

And… BMI estimates that the world's 20 largest copper mines will account for 36% of global output, and mine dangers & disruptions (like Grasberg/FCX) are underpriced.

Why you need to consider Copper as a investment bet :

• Copper leads growth
For 175 years, every industrial upcycle has been preceded by higher copper prices, well before GDP or PMI confirm it.
• Demand is locked in
EVs need ~80 kg copper vs ~20 kg in ICE cars. Grids,


BMI estimates that the world's 20 largest copper mines will account for 36% of global output, and mine dangers & disruptions (like Grasberg/FCX) are underpriced


Already strongly rec'd long $FSLR from $138 and $TE from $3.50 for clients & still see higher for both

Summary: Still long FSLR and TE for clients, sees higher prices for both despite recent solar pushback calls.

Already strongly rec’d long $FSLR from $138 and $TE from $3.50 for clients & still see higher for both - and despite recent pushback calls on solar.

Might be time for US to join ROW in its strong embrace for alternatives & EV over oil & ICE. We’ve been plain wimpy about it.

Trump has spoken.  Data Centers need captive “inside the fence” power generation.  The shortest term solution (with $GEV $SIEGY sold out on gas turbines) and nukes taking 6-10 years… are things like $BE $FSLR $TE.  Our note on $TE is below.  $VST $TLN $NRG $CEG and more are all https://t.co/tOpLCZsWmb


Summary: Bearish PLTR and NVDA; endorses Burry's short thesis, calls accounting gymnastics fraudulent and says it marks the top.

Great read -

While most $PLTR bulls are saying it’s only ½ way to its $1T valuation, here’s a good look at what accounting gynastics are needed to get there. And why Burry is betting big it won’t. $NVDA too.

FRAUD ALWAYS MARKS A TOP

$PLTR: Greatest 🫧 of All? 🤔

P/E 690× | $500B market cap | $5B total annual revenue 😳

Find out how they’re legally adjusting earnings while masking weak organic growth.

GAAP EPS: $0.15 vs est. $0.17 (MISS!)

Full report ⬇

https://t.co/yVtnSScEn2 https://t.co/AJCnvGS0x0


Summary: Gold and silver not done moving — implied bullish continuation after the metals volatility discussed in quoted post.

Not Done #gold #silver

https://t.co/24yL1TAHcC

Catching This Falling Knife Of Metal Madness

💫‘Rare’ Is An Understatement
💫Let’s Roll The Tape
💫Crypto Followed Metals
💫About That Dollar Bounce & Warsh Nod
💫Metal Volatility Triggers Equity Volatility

Posting now for clients ;-)


Summary: Has short price targets on NVDA; prefers other trades over it.

There Are Better Things To Trade Than Nvidia

also my short price targets on $NVDA

https://t.co/LGkqEyi3XF


Don't forget $PBF - perfectly outfitted for the heavy stuff from Venezuela. Maybe that's why Carlos Slim has accumulated so many shares past few years...

Summary: Bullish PBF as a Venezuela oil beneficiary, noting Carlos Slim's accumulating stake as validation.

industry='Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing'

Don’t forget $PBF - perfectly outfitted for the heavy stuff from Venezuela.

Maybe that's why Carlos Slim has accumulated so many shares past few years...🤔

🇺🇸 7 US Energy Stocks Likely To Benefit From Venezuela Oil Takeover:

• $CVX | Chevron
• $XOM | ExxonMobil
• $COP | ConocoPhillips
• $HAL | Halliburton
• $SLB | Schlumberger
• $VLO | Valero Energy
• $MPC | Marathon Petroleum https://t.co/iezwv7UsJT


Summary: Bearish oil: author endorses structural decline in global oil demand for 2026 and beyond.

Translation: FALLING GLOBAL OIL DEMAND

As we've been saying early & often...
https://t.co/SICj0bSILF

1/16
STRUCTURED REASONING ON OIL DEMAND FOR 2026 AND BEYOND
a.
2023-2024 LOWEST GROWTH IN OIL DEMAND OUTSIDE OF A RECESSION
b.
DEMAND FOR ROAD TRANSPORTATION WAS THE DRIVER OF TOTAL GROWTH IN OIL DEMAND BUT IS NOW FLAT
c.
A STRUCTURAL SHIFT : OIL DEMAND GROWTH WAS BEFORE


Summary: Bullish gold and silver as investors rotate from paper economy to hard assets; author has next upside targets after current volatility subsides.

'My THINGS OVER PAPER theme since summer 2020 takes on all new meaning with investor moving from the PAPER ECONOMY to the HARD ASSET ECONOMY.'

I give my next targets for gold & silver - after this metal volatility has subsided. 😉

Paper Longs & Shorts Are At Risk
Metal Commodities As Next Inflation Wave
What’s Fair Value For Silver & Gold?

Is Paper Silver About To Burn?
$SLV $GLD $GDX $GDXJ

https://t.co/e26FghOWLC


Summary: Long Cameco and URA on Uranium Renaissance thesis, position held since Nov 2020.

US GOVT AS VENTURE CAPITALIST

$CCJ $BAM

Trend long rec’d Cameco since Nov 2020 with $URA is en fuego on Uranium Renaissance

https://t.co/0m2XZ0MntS


Summary: Bearish BTC; author believes the crypto selloff only just began as of Feb 1 2026, with more downside ahead.

ROGUE MONEY™ indeed -
the thing everyone believed was free was already owned.

$BTCUSD #Epstein

Many hope this crypto crap selloff is “overdone”. To me, it looks like it just started Feb1st 2026. https://t.co/ZZlJidfANv

If 75% of Bitcoin's code was written on a convicted sex trafficker's dime, what exactly are you holding?


Summary: Bullish refiners VLO and PBF on durable jet fuel demand with no EV substitution threat.

Gonna say it again: there is no EV equivalent for jet fuel...

#Refiners $VLO $PBF

https://t.co/5A8N3DTrOh

A little background of jet fuel flows:

Most of China's jet fuel goes to South East Asia, Australia, Hong Kong and sometimes Japan.

South Korean jet fuel mostly goes to Australia and South East Asia.

When the arb is open, USWC (looking at you, California) imports jet fuel https://t.co/nr2m8Bx6Gx


Summary: Bullish gold in Q4, expects significant gains ahead.

@PlopTslq75821 Gold will do much better in Q4

@SamanthaLaDuc Btw respect- you were very correct on gold. I thought that countries would react defensively to the Strait closing which would drive safe assets. I did not anticipate the Nothing wrong here response.


Summary: Short META; author estimates it is only halfway through its decline from the high.

@Captionella $META is such a fabulous swing short. By my estimation it is about half-way done from its high.

$META nothing like committing $135B in AI capex and acquiring two AI companies, only to end up licensing Google's Gemini instead.... https://t.co/tjxAlSv8dM


Summary: Bullish crude oil: Hormuz closure + mine-clearing delay + insurer risk-off mean supply shocks remain unpriced.

the Hormuz has been closed for 58 days with no end in sight, and even if there was one, it would take 6 months to clear the mines while insurance companies stay risk-off.

Supply shocks are still not priced in.

Market, show me you care. #OOTT $WTIC

Goldman Sachs just upgraded their oil forecast.
Published yesterday. Most people haven’t read it yet.
Here’s what they’re actually saying. 👇 https://t.co/KxhiZRDEAd


Summary: Cautions against shorting JETS/XLF as both bounce off 100W EMA; stay long refiners which have worked for months.

@SkepticalBaba JETS & XLF bouncing off their 100W EMA, so I would wait until its over... next week might be better...
In the meantime, long refiners hasn't disappointed for months.

@SamanthaLaDuc I shorted $JETS today.

Wish me luck.


JETS & XLF bouncing off their 100W EMA, so I would wait until its over


long refiners hasn't disappointed for months


Summary: Bearish IT services names ACN, BAH, CTSH on dual headwinds: DOGE-driven govt contractor cuts and AI disruption.

IT services dumping ... started in JAN '25 with DOGE & Trump incoming, promising to shrink govt employee base. I set it up for clients then - that for every one govt employee laid off, three govt contractors are affected - and many programs.

AI disruption was the frosting on the cake.

$ACN $BAH $CTSH

The AI eating up IT services and consulting has begun I think.

$ACN

Next $INFY $WIT $CTSH $TCS


Shorts on 'support' but markets are not safe. Rising #crudeoil, yields, dollar & VIX still reward patient bears.

Summary: Bearish XLF, TLT, and SPX; rising oil, yields, dollar, and VIX reward patient bears; OPEX may offer only brief stabilization.

Fragile Markets For Banks, Bonds & OPEX
$XLF $TLT $SPX

Shorts on "support" but markets are not safe.

Rising #crudeoil, yields, dollar & VIX still reward patient bears.

OPEX flows may offer brief stabilization - emphasis on *may*. https://t.co/XIcBupeCGG

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I gave $SLV $61 with overshoot to 58.56 . How we doin'?

Summary: Bearish SLV with downside targets at $61 and overshoot to $58.56; metals fall fast when collateral stress hits.

Folks often forget Gold is a collateral trade.

Once stuff really starts to break, metals fall fast.

I gave $SLV $61 with overshoot to 58.56 . How we doin’?

JOIN US LIVE. Trading room starts ...

Gold Is Just Another Risk Asset

Precious Metal Miners Have Further To Fall

https://t.co/BiIpfFJ2fA


Summary: Iraq force majeure on foreign oilfields (inc. XOM) cuts supply, pushes oil higher; de-dollarization pressures USD.

Force Majeure on “foreign companies” meaning $XOM … and Force Majeure on ~ 5% of global oil production & ~8% of global reserves.

Also, Iraqi was forced post US invasion to route all petrol-dollar flows from Iraqi oil revenue to … NY Fed Bank. So that stops too.

Iraqi will work/trade with China & Russia more closely & outside USD.

Trump is fast-tracking higher oil prices AND de-dollarization. Market, show me you care!

BREAKING: Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign companies as the region's military operations disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing most of its crude exports from moving, oil ministry sources said https://t.co/j7yObA5det https://t.co/CFLATlDFNe


Summary: Short QQQ; target not yet reached, bearish position still active.

Protection Warning Paid

But QQQ Has Not Hit My Short Target, Yet

https://t.co/JrWv0IsUS5


it's time to retreat... yes, even from $ASTS. $40B valuation for <$300M is just not gonna make it in this hostile environment. You can buy it again cheaper later.

Summary: Bearish ASTS: $40B valuation vs <$300M revenue unsustainable in current environment; advises selling now to rebuy cheaper later.

@kenr0966 My dear, it's time to retreat... yes, even from $ASTS

$40B valuation for <$300M is just not gonna make it in this hostile environment.
You can buy it again cheaper later.
It's already reached my target given in Feb 2025 for 2027/28! It's time to rest already!!


I didn't know the reason, but I knew the target: $460 $MSFT given to clients as high conviction trade Wed when $415

Summary: High-conviction long MSFT with $460 target, given to clients at $415.

I didn’t know the reason, but I knew the target: $460 $MSFT
given to clients as high conviction trade Wed when $415 with $ORCL & $NOW 🔥

https://t.co/AKyMF0KxNK

Axios: Microsoft is expected to unveil new software that allows users to have AI agents perform tasks locally on Windows PCs.

$NVDA $MSFT https://t.co/b5aVcSLL3O


Summary: Aluminium Bahrain production cut is inflationary and bullish for Alcoa.

Inflationary. But good for $AA

#Aluminum

*ALUMINIUM BAHRAIN SUSPENDS 19% OF TOTAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY


Semis Are Done Going Up. The AI Bubble Is Bursting. Semi Sector Is Next.

Summary: Bearish semis: AI bubble bursting, liquidity leaving, semi sector set to fall amid energy crisis and recession risks.

SMH VanEck; SOXX iShares semiconductor ETFs

Countdown To A Global Energy Crisis & Recession

💫Liquidity Is Leaving. Semis Are Done Going Up.
💫The AI Bubble Is Bursting. Semi Sector Is Next.
💫A Semi Supply Hit Bigger Than Oil
💫Higher Oil, Dollar & Yields As Tech Wrecking Ball
💫Tail Risk Is Still Rising
💫Countdown To A Global Energy Crisis & Recession

https://t.co/AGPnvoJE6Y


Summary: Expects QQQ to revert sharply from historically extreme extension above 50 SMA.

$QQQ is now trading 9.8 ATRs above the 50 SMA

This has literally never happened before in the history of the QQQ ETF since its inception in March 1999.

We are truly in uncharted territory! https://t.co/oCFmI7rKxm


Summary: 2025 conviction longs on INTC and CSCO: entrenched boomer stocks with US strategic importance become inflationary assets in AI/reshoring cycle.

2025 Conviction longs should rest now:
$INTC & $CSCO

The thesis: “boomer stocks” with entrenched systems & U.S. strategic importance would become the new inflationary assets in an AI-driven & reshoring cycle. https://t.co/cc3fPtWxLn


Summary: Still long XLE vs SPY; overbought but not done, ongoing recommendation.

$XLE Over $SPY Still In Play

A fab long recommendation to clients since January - now overbought. But that doesn't mean it's done ;-)

#OOTT $WTIC https://t.co/mlMJdgqOFk

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Summary: If US-Iran conflict escalates and fails, global energy and food markets will price in physical shortages — implied long both sectors.

Trump is going for it?
#NavalEscort #Hormuz #Iran

If Trump follows through + fails - which has exceedingly high odds - he will have lost the war for US-Israel.

And the world will price in physical shortages across energy & food markets the world over.

PLACE YOUR BETS

⚠MarineTraffic confirms the Gerald R Ford (CVN-78) CSG is transiting the Suez canal, also confirmed by Chinese satellite imagery. All shipping traffic is anchored at each entrance.

Looks like Trump is forcing his commanders to reposition for Hormuz escorts. Deadly mistake. https://t.co/Ddx0mu1KiK


Summary: Bearish SPX post-ceasefire rip on weak fundamentals; expects oil, dollar, yields, and VIX to stay elevated against bullish consensus.

"CEASEFIRE" and $SPX 6800 – Now What?

Markets ripping yet risk remains high with fundamentals weak behind the move.

My bet: Oil, Dollar, Yields & VIX won't fall as much as bulls hope.

Also, some trading tips on hedging swing short exposure. https://t.co/by1pQIVgSP

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Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target … How High Can Oil Go

Summary: Bullish crude oil on Strait of Hormuz / Iran risk premium being priced in; article sets an upside price target.

Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target

💫Iran Risk Is Starting To Get Priced In
💫Day 4 of Operation Epic Folly
💫Wars Are Not Deflationary
💫How High Can Oil Go
💫Tech To Lose Its Key Source Of Funds

https://t.co/kHyaoLnd0l


Summary: Strongly bullish oil: trading at inflation-adjusted avg with Iran risk not yet priced in; expects material upside.

Yup:

“people are extremely naive if they think oil prices cannot go materially higher from here.

we are simply trading at a long term inflation adjusted average today. we arent even in the phase of pricing the risk we see in headlines quite yet”

Iran Risk Is Not Priced In


Summary: Bullish CVX and oil majors: Trump allies banking on elevated oil prices, and oil/gas seen as a catchup trade vs other commodities.

Thought provoking client comment:

"The US as a net exporter of crude with a large trade deficit is in a position to benefit, not get hurt, from this - and anyone saying that $5 diesel is going to be a problem hasn't looked at the price of every other product that has gone up 3x what it was in 2005, but oil and gas have materially stayed flat. This is just a catchup trade…" 👀

Plus you KNOW Trump & his $CVX et al buddies are banking on this elevated oil spike. BANKING!!

https://t.co/qWIPV4ELIY


Summary: Semis beginning a mean reversion to the upside; bullish SMH and MU even after today's move.

Yes, even after today ;-)
Semis Are Just Starting To Mean Revert
$SMH $MU

#LiveTradingRoom https://t.co/AhrFbzFcVB

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Summary: Iran geopolitical risk is not priced in; implied bullish on oil/risk assets tied to Iran escalation.

Pretty simple, the fundamentals go like this:

"Iran will be sent back to the Stone Age, where they belong."

Trump, last night.

Me, on repeat: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In

https://t.co/pIYOLN90wD


Summary: Higher-for-longer oil ($80-90 floor) for up to 24 months on unsatisfied demand + inventory drawdown; oil & gas producers set for margin expansion and big repricing.

I have the smartest clients!

"Trump + Bessent averted the big oil spike that the energy supply shock required, but instead they have put us in higher for longer oil prices.

Here's why: energy supply shock met fiscal (lower gas+diesel taxes) + fabricated risk assets melt up + oil price capped (result of multiple tricks, jawboning, agressive futures selling, historical SPR drawdowns, China collaboration slowing purchases last month…).

Well now we are left with a demand that has not been destroyed as it should, a +1,5B oil barrels drawdown from comercial+strategic inventories, and incentives across the globe to replenish oil+product inventories at higher levels that before war.

Result imho up to + 24 months of higher for longer oil prices where the curve will flatten finding a floor at $80-$90 dollars.

And guess what that level might not be enough for expanding big oil&gas capex required to contain price hikes through increased supply.

IMHO this will create a situation for big margin expansions for oil&gas producers and big repricing ahead. " Client Jose

🎯🧠🛢


this will create a situation for big margin expansions for oil&gas producers and big repricing ahead

XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF


Summary: Bullish crude oil; China export suspension on Persian Gulf disruption accelerates path to upside price targets.

We are going to get to my targets much faster than I thought at this rate:

JUST IN: 🇨🇳 China orders major oil refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports as Persian Gulf conflict disrupts crude supply.

Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target

💫Iran Risk Is Starting To Get Priced In
💫Day 4 of Operation Epic Folly
💫Wars Are Not Deflationary
💫How High Can Oil Go
💫Tech To Lose Its Key Source Of Funds

https://t.co/kHyaoLnd0l


Summary: Iran risk not priced in; energy infrastructure attacks bid oil, dollar, and yields higher from here.

Every attack on energy supply/infrastructure is an immediate bid in higher oil, dollar & yields.

Which is why I keep highlighting:

IRAN RISK IS STILL NOT PRICED IN
&
The Only Risk To Market Bears Is A Cease Fire

https://t.co/lHkxAnEgfw

JUST IN: 🇶🇦🇮🇷 Qatar confirms fire at Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG facility following Iranian attack.


The fraud exists as long as Magnetar has a position. They have only exited ~50% of $CRWV so there's time still…

Summary: Bearish CRWV; author implies ongoing fraud risk while Magnetar holds remaining ~50% position.

The fraud exists as long as Magnetar has a position. They have only exited ~50% of $CRWV so there’s time still…

Wall Street just pulled off the exact move that turned 2008 from a housing problem into a global collapse.

They turned Nvidia graphics cards into bonds, stamped them investment grade, and started selling them into the funds that hold retirement money.

Here is what happened https://t.co/DVZMAPLqqZ


Summary: Bearish QQQ: GCC fallout from Iran strikes damages US tech/AI sponsors; author views continued selling as near-certain.

Trump has been pushing to get the market to crash since beginning of the year - EVERY weekend there was a tape bomb. Finally he dropped real ones. Now our major US tech/AI sponsors in GCC suffer  major collateral damage after Trump abandoned them. How is selling not assured? $QQQ

WSJ: Arab governments were furious about Israel’s attack and the U.S. failure to head it off, officials said. They had aggressively lobbied the Trump administration to stop U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and now feel a target has been put on their


Summary: Long oil, refiners (VLO, PBF), and petrochemicals (DOW, LYB) on straightforward higher-price call.

Really straight-forward:
Higher Oil & Refiners & Petro Chemicals

$VLO $PBF
$DOW $LYB

#LiveTradingRoom https://t.co/R6GSztrjiZ

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Higher Oil & Refiners & Petro Chemicals

$VLO $PBF


Higher Oil & Refiners & Petro Chemicals

$DOW $LYB


Summary: Shorting MU and BE: memory stocks broke down after earnings confirming short setups, spilling into data center names.

Shorting Memory Darling & Data Center Flower
$MU $BE

Memory stocks like $MU and peers have broken down after earnings, hitting key downside targets and confirming short setups across the group... and spilling into data center-related names like $BE. https://t.co/eWlx1m14Oa

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https://t.co/ArOW6AxxFo


Summary: Bearish gold (reframed as a risk asset) and short precious metal miners with further downside ahead.

Gold Is Just Another Risk Asset

Precious Metal Miners Have Further To Fall

https://t.co/BiIpfFJ2fA


Precious Metal Miners Have Further To Fall


Summary: Shorting MU, SNDK on memory selloff and META, NVDA on AI news/yields/geopolitics; NASDAQ volatility VXN not done rising.

War Wreaks Havoc On US Tech Market

Timing a sharp selloff in memory stocks $MU $SNDK and continued shorts across tech $META $NVDA - driven by AI news, higher yields & Trump-Netanyahu’s War on Iran.

PS. NASDAQ volatility $VXN does not look done!

https://t.co/SlG57vlc5B


continued shorts across tech $META $NVDA


Summary: Bearish semis/tech as AI bubble bursts and liquidity exits; bullish oil and dollar amid energy crisis/recession countdown.

Another big client post this weekend:

Countdown To A Global Energy Crisis & Recession

💫The AI Bubble Is Bursting
💫Liquidity Is Leaving. Semis Are Done Going Up
💫Higher Oil, Dollar & Yields As Tech Wrecking Ball
💫Tail Risk Is Still Rising
💫Countdown To A Global Energy Crisis & Recession

You will not want to miss it.


Higher Oil, Dollar & Yields As Tech Wrecking Ball


Summary: Short gold to $4200 target with sideways into Q3; miners/silver can stay oversold for months while dollar remains bid with yields.

Mostly right.

BPGDX is a specialty of mine.
That’s one reason I warned clients early JAN 2026 that precious metals were about to top.

I also gave continuous contract gold 4200 as a price target short and that we could go sideways until Q3.

Of important note:
Gold & silver can stay oversold with miners for months.

And it is not just institutional sellers “clearing the float”. It’s actual central banks like Turkey and Russia selling gold from Iran War.

Currently the dollar is bid with yields and oil. While dollar catches a bid, precious metals don’t.

But my bet is this correlation will end once oil falls back below pre-Iran War levels - and dollar strength fades.

@minenergybiz Zero BPI is not a prediction, it's a signal. Every prior instance of miners hitting zero has been within 6 weeks of a multi-year sector low. GDX is sitting at $78 after printing $117 in April — a 33% drawdown with gold still in a long-term uptrend. The institutional sellers are


Gold & silver can stay oversold with miners for months


Summary: Deeper equity pullback as Iran risk, higher oil/yields, and capital flight from risk assets are not priced in; inflation & recession risks rising.

As warned: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In

A frank talk with @RealJohnGaltFla of  @MacroEdgeRes predicting a deeper pullback driven by Trump-Netanyahu's War on Iran that causes higher oil & yields AND capital leaving risk assets. Inflation & recession not priced in.

$SPX $DXY $VIX https://t.co/tR8zRjNqw0

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Summary: Bullish crude oil; Iran risk still not priced in, Gulf states may pull overseas investments under war strain.

Again, we haven't even felt this yet:

Gulf states might review overseas investments to ease financial strains caused by Iran war - FT

Iran Risk Is Still Not Priced In


Summary: Geopolitical Iran risk thesis: bullish oil, USD, USDJPY; bearish bonds, equities, AI investment on higher inflation expectations.

Iran Is Winning, Which Is Dangerous

💫Odd Man Out
💫Confirmed Bear
💫Higher Oil, Higher Dollar
💫Higher Oil, Higher Yields
💫Higher Oil, Higher USDJPY
💫Higher Oil, Higher Inflation Expectations
💫Higher Oil, Lower AI Investment
💫Higher Oil, Lower Markets

https://t.co/WEe7RNmgRh


Summary: Bullish oil on Saudi supply disruption from pipeline and production hits reducing capacity by 1.3 mbpd.

More oil going offline

Market, show me you care

#SaudiArabia $WTIC

Saudi Arabia confirms hits to the critical East-West pipeline (a pumping station), which led to a 700 kbpd throughput loss.

As well as confirmed strikes to upstream production assets (!!) that have reduced Saudi production *capacity* by 600 kbpd.

On top of downstream https://t.co/OxbiE4INam


Summary: Bullish US LNG equities (Cheniere, Venture Global) as Qatar LNG damage removes supply glut and US firms fill the gap via GCC restructuring deals.

“Just enough damage to knock competing infrastructure offline. U.S. LNG steps into the gap. The competing corridor is gone before it opens.”

US LNG stocks are outperforming as LNG glut is removed & US restructuring plans in GCC are quietly negotiated.

#IranWar

So…Qatar LNG gets hit. By morning Cheniere is at an all-time high, Venture Global up 61%, and Wall Street has buy notes out before the damage assessment is in.

European firms had signed forward supply deals for U.S. LNG seventeen days earlier.

What the headlines missed: every https://t.co/IsrQyKvjEf