Summary: Uber-bearish oil, yields, and equities into H2 2024-2025 on liquidity deflation thesis; uber-bullish bonds and defensive stocks.

#HFL crowd sees  RESURGENT INFLATION.

I see the exact opposite now as EVERYTHING changed (for me) in March, confirmed in April, and I doubled down in May.

I am Uber-bearish oil & yields & equities big picture.

I am Uber-bullish bonds & defensive stocks & cash.

I call it:
LIQUIDITY DEFLATION

I was on the other side of #HFL since early May & I am on the other side of #SoftLanding since early July.

I expect a bear market into H2 2024 & 2025 caused by falling global credit demand, larger-than-expected rate cuts, a slowing U.S. economy with higher unemployment, not to


I am Uber-bullish bonds & defensive stocks & cash.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker


XLU utilities; XLP consumer staples defensive ETFs


Summary: All-in long silver and gold for clients.

For my clients balls-to-the-walls silver & gold:

https://t.co/7wqZsOSrOx


Summary: Author has a live bearish oil call, reinforced by cited agreement.

Fits with my bearish oil call!

🎩@GavinSBaker
Notice @elonmusk agrees. 😅 https://t.co/J3Uw1wFRAF


Summary: Bullish GOOGL (PT $181.54), META (blue skies), AMD ($152 support); short TLT (turnaround at $91.32).

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Reviewed bullish $TLT, $GOOGL $META $AMD in our LaDucTrading member slack huddle today with Hans @HansCashFlow.

 - gave $181.54 as PT for $GOOGL which is just about to hit
- short target of $91.32 as turnaround for $TLT
- $META blue skies
- and bet $152 for $AMD gets supported


Summary: Author holds a TSLA NOV risk reversal (short $200P / long $250C), expects the trade to work with TSLA pushing toward $250.

Fabulous fundamental factoids - on $TSLA.

And as presented to LaDucTrading clients yday when @HansCashFlow and I presented our respective trades live, that NOV risk reversal ($200P sold to finance $250C) is going to work well I think 😉 - esp with $TSLA pushing $240 AH. 🤗

The first of the Magnificent 7, $TSLA, reported and as I just discussed with @jchatterleyCNN it was very good.

As background, Tesla’s stock hit a high of $410 on 11/4/2021, near the peak of the easy money hysteria with revenues growing 71% that year. It then collapsed to $108 on


Summary: Firmly expects oil to tank and pull yields down with it.

@DannyDayan5 I also believe firmly oil will tank and drag yields lower with it ;-)

@DannyDayan5 Same way I knew the 2Y chart I showed you was about to collapse + "Bonds stop going up" August 2020, or "Time For Yield Spike" premarket Sept 18th.

I use a funky version of intermarket analysis with technical, macro w fundamental, narrative w sentiment, and quant/positioning.


Summary: Short IWM (selling not done) and long QQQ (melt-up not done) into the Fed-cut week ahead.

Here’s my “Week Ahead”:

Selling is not done in $IWM and Melt-up is not done in $QQQ.

Fed cuts but intonates Jan pause. HAGW!

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 12/13/24

We are ALL bond traders now…

So, the timing of my client review yday morning AND client post Dec 12th was well timed: YIELDS ABOUT TO BREAK HIGHER? This is the update to TLT + ZN Bond Short, USDJPY long, VIX long... DXY too.


Summary: Bearish crude oil; expects $65.65 level to fail and price to fall to $40 next year.

@ReutterDavid Clients KNOW my famous $65.65 crude level.
I am not bullish for more than a trade, but if you are eager to chase, then 65.65 is your level that MUST close above on wkly to stay long.

I am more than confident it won't hold and we will see as low as $40 next year. But you do you!

@SamanthaLaDuc I want to buy crude so bad


Summary: Very bearish oil long-term, targeting $40 WTIC by end of next year at latest.

@Noneotherthanwe I have been since the headline Tues after market open ONE WEEK AGO - but only for a trade into Middle East conflict. That and refiners for a swing long. Big picture, still VERY bearish oil into $40 WTIC by end of next year latest.

@SamanthaLaDuc Are you finally bullish on oil Samantha?


Summary: Firmly bearish MAG7; believes they are heading down regardless, with an additional accelerant.

@vixologist Jim I firmly believe they are going down anyway. This will just accelerate it. MAG7

@SamanthaLaDuc Sounds as though you think this could be bad news for quite a few big companies.


Summary: Bullish on a growth rotation similar to Summer 2024.

IWF iShares Russell 1000 Growth; VUG Vanguard Growth ETF

As said last week in our Macro-to-Micro OPTIONS power hour with @HansCashFlow ...

I'm Bullish a Growth Rotation ala Summer 2024

https://t.co/BfHbXZ4kpe


Other than the demand coming from the AI capex (malinvestment) binge (which won't last), most other tech end markets are weak. $SMH 2025

Summary: Bearish SMH into 2025: AI capex is unsustainable malinvestment and all other tech end markets are weak.

ASML's warning yesterday: "While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected. This is expected to continue in 2025, which is leading


Summary: Bearish S&P 500/SPY: extreme 14:1 leveraged-long AUM ratio is an outlier that will revert sharply.

Margin debt use to be a great tell for market turns, but with leveraged ETFs, it has lost a lot of its predictive warning powers.

14:1 AUM long is what I call an outlier waiting to revert with velocity...

The S&P 500 $SPY is up about 4% over the past 3 weeks. Leveraged long ETF assets are up 16%.

There is now almost $14 in leveraged long ETFs for every $1 in leveraged short funds, above the prior record from Dec 27, 2021.

The ratio has jumped 62% just since the end of October. https://t.co/aJehiuRgDv


Summary: Still holding BMY long since July; stock gapping up 12% as ABBV schizophrenia drug failed while BMY has FDA-approved rival.

Thank you Dr Alex - our brilliant healthcare analyst/trader who posts in our Slack workspace for members.

Already long $BMY since July and through earnings.👍Today it's gapping up 12% on news $ABBV schizophrenia drug failed while $BMY already has FDA-approved Schizophrenia drug. 🔥

See his deep-dive analysis & trades by becoming a member of CLUB/EDGE.
https://t.co/85J3RNOK5Y


Summary: Long gold and silver on China external drain / anti-FX-reserve mechanics and rising US cost of living.

"It is probably going to take 1 or 2 years for people to understand what is a Gold a Spread.

Spread is widening on Silver to 10%.

It means discharge/ external drain in China.
I don't know why people don't understand what an external drain is...
It's simply the ANTI FX AS RESERVES.
That's why the USD is not making a new high versus CNH since 2022, DESPITE China having lowered rates the whole time.
External drains are the norm in 400 years of history, and China has dusted off that old tool.
And by the way it's why cost of living are rising in the US. Same mechanics..." @GraphCall

Two very different ways to arrive at the same place: Long gold & silver.

@SamanthaLaDuc @GraphCall Its just the number in the disaggregated commitment of traders data highlighted in first table below. Everyone always asks why I don't net out the longs...and I just point to the volatility of the Swaps' gross short, which is so much crazier than the volatility of their long https://t.co/Qo5ufRw6t9


Summary: Bullish natural gas and producers AR/EQT on peak production environment over next 4-5 months amid polar vortex freeze-offs.

Peak natural gas production next 4-5 months!? $AR $EQT #NG_

With the polar vortex hitting by the end of week 1 in January, Lower 48 gas production will drop massively due to production freeze-off.


Peak natural gas production next 4-5 months!? $AR $EQT #NG_


Summary: Bearish oil and yields big-picture since May, reinforced into 2025.

And another reason I turned bearish oil and yields BIG PICTURE since May.

#2025


Summary: Short financials (XLF, KIE) on JPM NII warning from lower rates; expects tech to follow banks lower.

Already positioned clients short on THIS THESIS last week!

$XLF $KIE

$JPM warned much  lower rates will hurt net interest income.

AND "When we lose banks, tech will follow."


Summary: Oil spike incoming; long oil and refiners VLO, PBF, MPC, DINO, PSX plus energy ETF XLE as ways to play it.

USO United States Oil Fund tracks WTI crude

Ways to play my OIL SPIKE INCOMING thesis from Tuesday.

Trade Idea: Oil Spike & Refiners

Discussed: $WTIC, $XNGUSD, $VLO, $PBF ( $MPC, $DINO, $PSX), $XLE, $OXV

https://t.co/9G9y8P5cBs


Ways to play my OIL SPIKE INCOMING thesis

industry='Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing'


Summary: Long XLE as a play on an oil spike thesis.

Hans @HansCashFlow and I talk market/sector direction using options. We size up $XLE to play an oil spike thesis. VIX & Bond option review & more!

https://t.co/zfGCYt4YIE


Summary: Long LLY with $793 support level; short NVO from $138 with $106 price target on same H&S pattern.

$LLY rec'd TREND long since $200 was forming a Head & Shoulder's pattern into earnings. I said to protect down to $800 as $793 is strong support.

And yet, already short $NVO on same pattern since $138 with $106 PT. We are close on both.

Join us: Profit & Protect.

$LLY earnings and revenue missed estimates and the company is cutting the high end of its full year revenue guidance. "There is an excess supply, but we haven't been stimulating demand the way we had originally planned," says CEO David Ricks on GLP-1 inventory levels. https://t.co/FfTh9m5TEI


already short $NVO on same pattern since $138 with $106 PT. We are close on both.


Summary: Gold pullback stronger than expected; price could slice through $2600 support, dragging GLD/SLV/GDX lower.

Even though I warned clients Oct 29th to expect Gold to pullback to $2600... today's gap down was stronger than I expected. Translation: could slice right thru.

👉https://t.co/Edj42oEPFP
$SLV $GLD $GDX https://t.co/KeoaKYijKR

Gold -  This has been the strongest 4 day down move in a very long time.


My 'most bullish' intermarket chart posted for clients APR 3... was of silver/gold.

Summary: Bullish silver vs gold ratio with a new upside target shared with clients.

SI=F COMEX silver futures on Yahoo Finance

My "most bullish" intermarket chart posted for clients APR 3... was of silver/gold.

I just posted this update with target for clients ;-). https://t.co/cnndzk7Ysw


Summary: Author recommended FXI to clients and remains bullish, noting explosive options activity as confirmation.

One word: LIFO

And this is from a woman who recommended $FXI to clients MONDAY Sept 23rd!

https://t.co/VJpbk0qt1W

Don't see this a lot --FXI calls were the most actively-traded options in the entire market today, topping SPY https://t.co/4BvzNxmNQQ


Summary: Bullish TSLA via Nov 200P/250C risk reversal; expects the structure to pay off with TSLA pushing higher into expiry.

Nice to the start of earnings season ;-)

$TSLA November 200P/250C bull risk reversal I rec'd Tues & Wed for clients will be lit.

Fabulous fundamental factoids - on $TSLA.

And as presented to LaDucTrading clients yday when @HansCashFlow and I presented our respective trades live, that NOV risk reversal ($200P sold to finance $250C) is going to work well I think 😉 - esp with $TSLA pushing $240 AH. 🤗


Summary: Bearish SMCI: author vindicated on prior fraud suspicions; quotes own thesis that fraud marks the top, implying further downside.

"Are the revenues real?"
😉

I got lambasted for asking last year. 😂
$NVDA $SMCI

I also said I am a very patient woman.
And that "Fraud Always Marks The Top"

NEW FROM US:

Super Micro—Fresh Evidence Of Accounting Manipulation, Sibling Self-Dealing And Sanctions Evasion At This AI High Flyer

https://t.co/TaWfYbJVUA $SMCI

(1/x)


QTUM at ATH, QTUM rotation. All quantum bets = hot fire flames

Summary: Long QTUM/IBM/GOOGL on quantum momentum; IWM bearish below 241 with 230 PT; long GLD/SLV into CPI+FOMC; NVDA needs catalyst.

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 12/10/24

China digesting: See # market-thoughts: Promises Promises. ;-)

QTUM at ATH, GOOGL gapping higher with 194 swing long PT; IBM into Oct/ATH at 238. All quantum bets = hot fire flames.

"Sometimes the most profitable is the easiest" and why I have also said “I’m not worried about AAPL, TSLA, AMZN”.

NVDA back down to 136 with semis soft on China investigations and QTUM rotation. Needs time/trigger to move higher - may need AVGO earnings 12/12 and FOMC 12/18th out of way.

Small cap index is weakest, as foretold from falling breadth & net selling indicators. Below IWM 241 should see the 21D at 236.36 break with 230 PT at 55D.
Otherwise, above 241 is bull flag and heading higher... but for that I need to see breadth reverse the 3 days of losses/weakness and net buying to kick in after selling since Dec 2nd.

GLD, SLV calls were cheap, as I showed last week and said would be likely bid into CPI + FOMC.

VIX hedge working.

There’s More… a lot more…

https://t.co/lhCzApK69R


GOOGL gapping higher with 194 swing long PT


GLD, SLV calls were cheap, as I showed last week and said would be likely bid into CPI + FOMC


Summary: USDJPY rallies to 155 then falls below 150 on BOJ hike; after Fed pauses, bonds/yen/gold/silver bid and equities fall.

Japan wanted inflation. They got it!
In prices anyway.

Every data print is 🔥

Best guess:
$USDJPY tries one more time to rise into 155.
Then BOJ hikes in Jan which pushes it back <150.
Fed cuts Dec 18th then pauses Jan 29th.

Then US bonds, yen, gold/silver are bid, equities fall.
🤔


US bonds, yen, gold/silver are bid, equities fall


Summary: Long oil and USD on Middle East war escalation driving hedging demand and supply fears.

RED OCTOBER

Middle East War.
Folks scrambling for hedges.
US dollar bid.
Oil Spike Incoming.

https://t.co/YCkPaueycA


Summary: Author has recommended and remains long CCJ, URA, FLR, PWR, and BWXT as nuclear trend plays over multiple years.

Rec’d Trend Longs past few YEARS…

CCJ
URA
FLR
PWR
BWXT

JOIN US: https://t.co/2KkP0W68vY

A List of Nuclear Stocks UPDATED:

Small Modular & Micro Reactors
$SMR NuScale
$OKLO Oklo
$NNE NANO Nuclear
$RR.L Rolls Royce
$GEV GE Vernova
$BWXT BWX Technologies

Services and Equipment
$LEU Centrus Energy
$CW Curtiss-Wright
$GEV GE Vernova
$BWXT BWX Technologies
$PWR Quanta https://t.co/XnDyF7n6GT


Summary: Loose monetary policy bullish for gold; confiscated Russian assets bearish for bonds.

@infraa_ @KingKong9888 So what's the trade for you?

gold loves loose monetary policy.

bonds do not like confiscated Russian assets. https://t.co/1EBfyyDs9o

@SamanthaLaDuc @KingKong9888 But we already knew that negative real rates were the only way to delever the insane leverage of the federal govt

Now, we know a little bit more about how it will actually look


Summary: Long BABA on dystopian valuations: outperformed AMZN on revenue growth and margins over 10 years, plus Alipay optionality.

Geoffrey @GraphCall was way ahead of this fundamental read of strength on BABA back in February:

Posted to our clients:
“DYSTOPIAN VALUATIONS
$BABA far outperformed $AMZN in the last 10 yrs.

$AMZN multiplied its sales by 7.5X.
$BABA? 25.17X

$AMZN NEVER had EBIT MARGINS ABOVE 6.7% in 10 yrs.

$BABA NEVER BELOW 8.5% in 10 yrs.

Don't forget: BABA is tied at the hip with Alipay which has 1.5 billion clients and a 33% stake.

At some point, cheap becomes stupid cheap and a buy.”

#China

I am very glad this thesis on China has worked well for clients.

And we even had the pause that refreshes!

This week, those 13-Fs showed lots of money interested in $BABA $JD $KWEB $FXI etc.

Typical with trend reversals: Slowly then all at once. 🇨🇳

https://t.co/9u1lOK5KNV


$NVO stock looks sickly past few months. Big ol Head-N-Shoulders on weekly chart. I would expect Novo Nordisk to lose some weight in its market cap.

Summary: Bearish NVO on H&S pattern + RFK/MAHA policy risk; also bearish LLY on same thesis.

$NVO stock looks sickly past few months. Big ol Head-N-Shoulders on weekly chart.

If Trump wins, and #RFKJr gets his way to #MAHA, I would expect Novo Nordisk to lose some weight in its market cap.

Also beloved $LLY


Summary: Currently short MRK due to Keytruda competition from SMMT.

@SPYSTSignals But we are currently (past 1-2 months) short $MRK on keytruda busters $SMMT - so good reminder about Ivermectin! @DrBenJamminK

https://t.co/iltu7qdXOq

@SamanthaLaDuc Long Merck, maker of Ivermectin


Chasing $NVDA Short to $96 is one thing. But I'm really excited about that May 2023 gap.

Summary: Bearish NVDA with downside target at $96 and eyes on filling the May 2023 gap below.

Chasing $NVDA Short to $96 is one thing.

But I’m really excited about that May 2023 gap. 😉

Gamma Flows & Dealer Hedging & Nvidia News

CLUB/EDGE client post Tuesday, September 3rd, 2024.

Focus on dealers offside in VIX and chasing NVDA short.

https://t.co/x3fnAtM2W0


Summary: Warns value stocks (IWM, DIA) will sell off more, pulling SPX and QQQ lower; markets crash from oversold conditions.

And why… WHY I warned clients Monday about value selling off even more - $IWM $DIA

“MARKETS CRASH FROM OVERSOLD NOT OVERBOUGHT.”

- would pull lower $SPX $QQQ

Updated trading room notes and detailed market thoughts have been posted for clients.

14th straight down day for value stocks. Previous record was 9. https://t.co/nzAJsQR8yQ


Summary: Holding and pressing short on bank sector; argues bank selling is a broad market warning signal.

Live Trading Room review of my Bank short - before they rolled over this week + reasons to press.

In time, keep in mind:
If They Sell Banks, Why Buy Anything Else?

https://t.co/BcHK4uRubX


Summary: Bullish NVDA post-earnings as base case; targets SMH $272.46 by EOY/January.

$NVDA moving higher post earnings is a base-line bet BECAUSE I have $SMH $272.46 as price tag by EOY/Jan. 😉

I think the $NVDA move is underpriced.

Not the "1-day" that most focus on, but bigger picture.

This AM we see NVDA with a 7% implied ER move, a neutral Skew Rank of 0.6, and a subdued IV Rank of 38%.

Attached is 1-month skew on earnings day for today (teal) vs the previous 3 https://t.co/hmAHlkbmQH


I have $SMH $272.46 as price tag by EOY/Jan


Summary: Bearish BTC/ETH/crypto as liquidity vacuum suppressing commodities; without crypto inflows, commodity prices would rise as money chases real assets.

DJP broad commodity ETN; PDBC Invesco commodity ETF

Trump’s blessing on bitcoin could back-fire big time.

Many are hoping China “stimulus” helps hard commodities get a durable bid, or USD falling does.

But not gonna happen if Bitcoin + crypto keep rising.

Why?
BTC serves as the off-ramp to suck out any liquidity that would otherwise go into commodities - both as speculation or investment.

By design:
As BTC rises, inflation is controlled by suppressing commodity prices from lack of speculation and investment AND as source of funds re-routes liquidity from THINGS we actually consume & use in industrial applications (oil, corn, copper, gold, etc) into the popular delusion of an intangible token that has no use as an input into building goods and services to consume/trade, or as a claim on revenues/cash flows that determines its value, or for any purpose at all in the real economy.

What’s the alternative?
Imagine if money didn’t flow into Bitcoin… Traders would actually put money to use in chasing/hedging inflationary assets. This would drive commodities (and interest rates) higher.

BTC Price To $1M?
Ironically … bitcoin competes for the very dollars that could be used for productive investments - projects that deploy commodities/employ people - to support a higher standard of living and real economic growth.

Who Benefits Exactly?

BTC /ETH /Crypto serves the self-interests of the largest holders/most wealthy while siphoning money away from value stocks, US bonds, world commodities … not to mention investments in infrastructure, R&D, more jobs.

Bitcoin to $1M or $13M is less an argument about digital scarcity of BTC then it is about short-changing America’s ability to focus on and fund our real future.


Summary: Author's nat gas client is bullish on LNG and EQT driven by LNG terminal demand plus unexpected power-gen upside.

My Nat Gas client weighed in:

“There's already a 2-3 year backlog for gas turbines so it's a good question.  My gas bull bet is based on LNG demand from the terminals that are already in construction.  Hadn't even factored in more demand for power gen.    The refresh rate for infra construction is way slower than for software.    Have read that current GPU's are power pigs but newer ones won't be.  However what revenue model supports throwing away billions in obsolete chips over the next couple years?” $LNG $EQT

The AI narrative has shifted from "More GPUs" to "More Power."  While the popular talking point is that new nuclear plants will supply this power, the NRC has effectively smothered the industry for decades. So where is the power going to come from? #AiMania https://t.co/GhLcujD9X7


Summary: Bearish PLTR; endorses insider-selling bubble thesis — insiders dumping billions while retail buys.

🚨 BREAKING NEWS 🚨

CEO ALEXANDER KARP AND CO-FOUNDER PETER THIEL HAVE SOLD OVER $2.5 BILLION WORTH OF $PLTR STOCK SINCE SEPTEMBER

AND JUST FRIDAY THE CEO SOLD $400M WORTH OF THE STOCK WHICH IS NEARLY PLTR’S YEARLY REVENUE

THIS IS THE LARGEST BUBBLE IN U.S STOCK HISTORY…
$SPY https://t.co/BEdmQfoNu9


Summary: Long silver (target mid-$30s), gold, and precious metals miners on USD devaluation, fiscal dominance, and China settling trade in gold.

With new “MAGA” prime Minister of Japan, and China strategically easing on both monetary and fiscal front - with lots of financial engineering in the China capital markets now - it likely means BOJ will not be hiking rates anytime soon.

With US dollar weak/falling, and as long as labor market remains strong, Fed may pause easing right after the election. If cuts, precious metals continue rising.

Since Feb/March 2024, @GraphCall has called for silver to rise into mid30s based on FISCAL DOMINANCE, balance of trade causing China to settle in gold, & USD devaluation into inflation.

In a nutshell, without fiscal budget constraint, Geoffrey believes, USD continues lower.

Great backdrop for gold/silver miners. He has updated silver’s path + price target by year-end for our clients.

#LaDucTradingEDGE


If cuts, precious metals continue rising


Summary: BTC higher if Lutnick wins; gold favored under Bessent; USD weakens under either pick.

Howard Lutnik is also pro-Bitcoin. So of course, that's the trade: $BTCUSD goes higher.

But so does the speed at which we turn banana republic.

Scott Bessent is pro-Gold. His largest position in fact as of Nov 4th.

NEITHER have a grasp on how to support or value the USD.

Would be interesting to hear more people weigh in on this for @realDonaldTrump to consider feedback.

My view fwiw is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice, whereas @howardlutnick will actually enact change.

Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt, so we need change


Scott Bessent is pro-Gold. His largest position in fact as of Nov 4th.


Summary: Author is long gold and updating the call to protect existing long positions.

Gold: Updating My Call To Protect Longs

https://t.co/c8sRVk6wkI


Keeps my client rec'd Trend Long play in $ORLY bid past few years

Summary: Maintains long position in ORLY, sustained by rising car insurance premiums driving auto parts demand.

Keeps my client rec’d Trend Long play in $ORLY bid past few years.

#Hurricanes
#CarInsurance

[NEWS] A perfect storm brewing in the car insurance market:

The average premium (for full coverage) in June was $2,543—up 26% YoY.

And in some states like New Jersey, increases were well over 40%.

The reasons?

Insurance companies are trying to recoup their losses from


Summary: Bullish nuclear energy plays on AI-driven demand catalyst (Ellison/ORCL) + potential uranium supply squeeze from Putin export threat.

Oh the timing:

Ellison of $ORCL yday talking up need for nuclear energy for AI boom followed by Putin threatening export restrictions on uranium. 💣

$URA $URNM $CCJ https://t.co/gu9G2oUgIJ

Probably read it 3 times already .. a mega trend staring at your face .. will disrupt lot of industries… just need cheap and reliable energy. https://t.co/WIKw54q6zS


Gold and Silver should fall on Trump removing sanctions on Russia. the geopolitical risk premium in $GLD + $SLV is removed

Summary: Geopolitical risk premium removed from gold/silver as Russia sanctions lifted; both GLD and SLV should fall despite China-buying macro tailwind still intact.

That’s the big one for many long precious metals.

Gold and Silver should fall on Trump removing sanctions on Russia.

It is still a trend long on other macro considerations - China selling USD to buy Gold in Yuan - but the geopolitical risk premium in $GLD + $SLV is removed.

@SamanthaLaDuc End of war are usually not good for Soft and PM commodities.


Summary: Short AAPL targeting 238/237; NVDA still needs 145 gap fill; SMH facing monthly resistance with 252.33 gap fill below.

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary 1/7/25

I did warn Monday premarket: 10Y yields were about to leave the Goldilocks' Zone. The ISM data hit this morning. It showed hot prices which is inflationary and the 10Y yield spiked exactly into my 4.69% level. Are we done? I don’t think so. I can see 10bp higher before *they* try to intervene - beyond Trump trying to talk it down this morning. Lol

“TOO MUCH TOO SOON” I updated my NVDA trade yday for CLUB/EDGE clients, where I wrote: “As for the trade I proposed, it has happened to produce results much faster than expected, so taking half off is really smart as I do expect 145 gap to be retested before the weekly breakout can hold. SMH is also doing its thing - gapping INTO monthly resistance at 262.26 with 252.33 gap fill below to protect against…”

And then today happened ;-) LOL

Oh, and part of that SWING update for CLUB/EDGE clients was this note: “reminder premarket that the market underneath is still in need of repair with lots of potential for chop …”

And today we had this happen:

SPX opened at 5993, hit 6K and reversed to 5890. I have 5903 as level to trade below Wed to negate the Post-Santa “first 5 days of Jan” barometer as per Stock Trader’s Almanac.

NVDA opened at 153.10 and dumped thru 152.89 resistance level given to 145 daily gap fill before breaking all the way to 140 (-8.56% intraday peak to trough) and still not at daily gap fill of 138.88. GREAT CHASE SHORT TODAY

SMH opened 263.58 + immediately sold off with NVDA back to 253 wkly support with gap fill still to hit of 252.33. GREAT CHASE SHORT TODAY

QQQ gave chase short below 524 with 519.07 as PT with 517.86 overshoot. It closed at 515.

AAPL is still my fave FANG short into 238/237 as noted repeatedly.

PLTR chase short on break of 21D (after waiting patiently for weeks) was extremely well-timed for $5. THAT WORKED.

MBLY update yday in SWING was well timed. After a 50% increase (on stock basis), I warned it would struggle here for awhile, retesting 19.65 breakout. It did. Today. After I closed my trading room. Lol. Ditto with RIVN long. Warned 16.50 would struggle. Yup.

Stalking New Swings...

UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE AT https://t.co/uD7G1gC9t8

https://t.co/CgeVQE8a6G


I do expect 145 gap to be retested before the weekly breakout can hold


Summary: Implies SoftBank CEO's bullish $9T AI investment thesis is self-serving; author notes NVDA as the play on this AI/data center narrative.

Nine trillion dollar investment in ‘Super-AI’ isn’t that much, says SoftBank CEO

He is clearly talking his book!!!
$NVDA #AI #DataCenters

https://t.co/KgXs8qz7kg


Summary: Tariffs on major gold/silver producers would drive capital into NDX, BTC, and related assets as off-ramp destinations.

I don’t think Trump would tariff gold and silver from China, Canada, Australia, and Mexico - the largest producers of gold and silver - unless he really wants money to off-ramp to NDX, BTC, etc.

Oh wait…

***#Gold and #Silver Alert***

Could the #Trump #Tariffs be the answer to higher gold and silver prices?

What does #Mexico, #Canada, #Australia, and #China all have in common? They are some of the largest producers of gold and silver. Setting a tariff on these countries would


Summary: Short TLT and ZN bonds, long USDJPY, long VIX, and bullish DXY in updated client trade.

Update to $TLT + #ZN Bond Short, $USDJPY long, $VIX long...  #DXY too

If you aren't a https://t.co/2KkP0W68vY member, you can see this detailed client post in my Substack tomorrow ;-0

https://t.co/0USqMMFvy3


Summary: Strong bear on oil (WTI to ~$40 in ~1yr); secondary long JPY/short USDJPY on historical oil-yen correlation.

In April/May/June I turned big oil bear big picture.
I've been showing this chart of $WTIC to clients every week since. Yes, we can play the counter-trend bounces on geo-political stress, but overall, my strong view is that we could be closer to $40 in next yr or so.

Citi out with its view that supports.

One thing that bears watching in particular:
Typically, when oil price falls, the yen strengthens.

https://t.co/9Zmi803n3d

This is one way I was able to catch the yen-carry-trade unwind in July for clients. 😉
$USDJPY

Citi posts view that a Trump victory and red wave are bearish for oil. See downside risk to 2025 global demand growth (tariffs) and maintain incoming prez might coax more bbl from cartel. Base case is Brent at $70/bbl 1-3 mos.; $65/bbl 1Q25; $60/bbl 2Q&3Q25; and $55/bbl for 4Q.


why it most likely will not help the $KWEB + related plays get 'above the wall'

Summary: Bearish China equities and KWEB: Trump tariffs (10-60%) will crush China export biz for 4+ years; fiscal support won't overcome the wall.

You do understand why China is offering fiscal support IF TRUMP WINS, right?

And why it most likely will not help the $KWEB + related plays get “above the wall”… $SSEC

I wrote about this HERE Oct 5th!
https://t.co/4uRvrlttuT

Trump will push 10-20% tariffs on $3Trillion of US imports AND threaten 60% tax on products from China - which will have big impact on US corporate profitability and hurt US consumers in short-term, but really hit China’s export biz for 4 yrs, at least!

China stocks are cheap for a reason.

#AnotherTrumpMacroTrade

Another Trump Macro Trade - potential:

"CHINA COULD UNVEIL ENHANCED FISCAL MEASURES IF TRUMP SECURES U.S. PRESIDENCY."

Adds to the long list of trades I listed here:

https://t.co/hgWUIf76nc

#PoliciesDrivePrice


Summary: Confident SMH will hit 272 (a downside target), contradicting the parent's bearish framing but confirming a move lower to that level.

@baby_binki I am quite sure SMH will tag 272. Not if just when.

@SamanthaLaDuc I find that shocking (not sarcastic). Demand just pointed to top of the bubble, for $SMH to go higher you need to believe in even more multiple expansion. Flows arent that strong + earnings will accelerate downside. But you are good at what you do so maybe I am missing something


Summary: Bullish commodities broadly — gold, silver, agri ETFs plus steel, coal, aluminum, natgas, lumber — on currency debasement thesis; charts confirm; early innings.

I never looked at “silver shorts” as reason to rec’d swing/trend long to clients since Mar/Apr, but this would help, if true.

Best reason, as @GraphCall puts it:

“when a gov is broke, they don't want to see the currency fall further/ faster than commodities - either soft or PM....”

But that is exactly what’s happening. Very bullish commodities big picture - $GLD $SLV $DBA …

Plus the charts still look great! 😉

Sizing up Steel, Coal, Aluminum, Natural Gas, Lumber…for clients past few weeks. Early innings.

The #silver shorts covered 30 million paper ounces this week. The silver short position is still absolutely massive and ridiculous. This is the most controlled asset on earth. That is the reason you should buy as much as possible. Godspeed patriots. #silversqueeze https://t.co/KvTXGmkxu3


Sizing up Steel, Coal, Aluminum, Natural Gas, Lumber…for clients past few weeks. Early innings.


Summary: Yields breaking higher; short TLT and 10Y bond futures, long USDJPY, long VIX, long DXY.

»CLUB/EDGE client post Tuesday, December 12th.

I remember when so many were excited about buying bonds & I said, not so fast. Read why I warned:

YIELDS ABOUT TO BREAK HIGHER
Update to $TLT + #ZN Bond Short,
$USDJPY long, $VIX long... #DXY too

https://t.co/u50994sZgG


Summary: Long gold/silver on China arbitrage + Fed easing; short US equities starting next year on reversing liquidity/rising risk premium; bearish USD as China exits.

Is China really trying to dump USD to buy gold in order to  “unseat” the USD and “destroy” America’s currency hegemony?

Or…

Is it just a stealth old-school playbook move for a WEALTH TRANSFER to help China’s economy and property markets. 😉

Think about it:
Nixon prevented G-7 countries from dumping USD into the Gold markets - because it would make them less dependent on US/USD.

But China - and no doubt other BRICS nations - have been running a very profitable arbitrage play for past year, as @GraphCall has foretold:

China is selling USD to buy cheap Gold in New York then selling expensive Gold in Shanghai for Yuan.

Why?
It is a smart way to devalue the Yuan against Commodities and avoid losing purchasing power versus the US (something that consumers in Japan have to endure because US colonized them in exchange for military protection).

China can then go ahead and cut rates while maintaining FX trade balances BECAUSE it is devaluing Yuan against Gold as a way to influence its consumption/production.

China doesn’t even need to print or run ever-larger fiscal deficits as a result - UNLIKE US!

This is the good old “External Drain” that was banned by Nixon!

And there is nothing that the US can do about it
- short of better trade arrangement with China AND better fiscal deficit management of our own affairs.

This is also why THEIR equity market valuation is too cheap and US is too expensive!

So with Fed easing and China leaving UST & USD behind, is it any wonder gold and silver have run so high?

And is it any wonder how policy interference by Fed/Treasury has a diminishing rate of return?

With that, US Equities will suffer (starting next year most likely) as Fed liquidity and money flows reverse, while risk premium demands rise against a falling growth backdrop.

Only when the US starts to manage its out of control budget will gold/silver be a short.


Summary: Bearish oil: Saudi Arabia raising output from December drives prices lower.

Ha!
Oil price falls as Kingdom prepares to raise output from December.

After the elections... but front-running now.
Great for my bearish oil call!

So until then, we have strong labor prints & the longshoreman strike for higher wages for 45K people & Maersk shipping surcharges & Helene... for an inflationary impulse that started with CTA positioning on Fed day spiking the 10Y from 3.6% to 3.8% (as expected/warned) on way to 3.9% with overshoot to 4.1% potential by YE.

Before it all unwinds again.
And market will go back to pricing in deflation. 😉

It's a dance.💃

https://t.co/ccKBN9oupj


"One More High" still in play. As BIG TECH reports dead ahead. #MAG7

Summary: Expects one more high in Mag7 big tech stocks into upcoming earnings reports.

“One More High” still in play.

As BIG TECH reports dead ahead. #MAG7

 https://t.co/xPOE0tVaDr


Summary: Bearish NVDA and SMH: higher PT targets are a magnet to sell into, then the move is over; SMCI accounting issues add overhang.

💯 - ONLY reason I am bullish into these higher $NVDA price targets is because the option flow is already there, and in size, and they will act as magnet to sell into. And then it's done IMO. $SMH $SMCI

Analysts at Raymond James and Susquehanna raised their price target on $NVDA to $170 and $180, respectively.

Meanwhile, $SMCI, which is Nvidia's third biggest customer, is going to get delisted for accounting fraud and shine the spotlight on Nvidia's accounts receivable and https://t.co/UvtMhuSThJ


Summary: Bullish on China-linked equities and ETFs; describes the trade as 'working'.

CHINA - Working…

$KWEB $FXI $YINN $CHAU $BABA $BIDU $JD $SSEC

https://t.co/4wUOcq5eiW


Summary: No capitulation yet; warns against chasing markets higher into new year; downside target SPX 5775–5375 if negative gamma triggers below ~5850.

AUGUST 5TH VIBES, SORT OF

Since I posted this chart of VX3M:VIX ratio, warning https://t.co/MrMkwZYdvt clients M/T that I was expecting it to fall and pull down markets, I wanted to share some thoughts on how it differs from the August 5th low, even if it ultimately fell to the same place.

Differences between the DEC 18th VIX spike (75%) versus AUG 5th VIX spike (64%):

🎩As @Alpha_Ex_LLC pointed out:
Realized 1M Vol spiked from 6.7 to 12.4 - a doubling of RV in one day on the SPX -3% print.

- VIX beta to SPX 12/8 was a larger % INCREASE (75% VS 64%) than 8/5.
- VIX to SPX % move is typically 6x. Both of these were 20X.

Few were positioned for a VIX spike that was the 2nd biggest 1-day % increase in history. There were tells, however, and this is what I saw prior & shared with clients:

1. "VIX UP, SPOT UP" was a tell in both cases, as was VVIX trending higher before SPX sold off. I highlighted this specifically to clients Monday: "Market is becoming more unstable: VXN +10% with QQQ +1.6%, VIX +4% with SPX +.5%"

2. Breadth Matters. For me the BIG difference was the size of the breadth destruction under the surface prior to yday's sell-off. I  monitor net selling under the surface so as to time when the air pocket underneath will present.

- I posted Monday a detailed set of charts warning that the selling was not done and QQQ + SPX would catch down next:  "INTERMARKET REVIEW WEEK ENDING DEC 13TH, 2024 - Melt-Up Into Instability"

- The net selling was much bigger in NYSE leading into 12/18 - and started Dec 2nd as warned - before the macro trigger of FOMC pricing out cuts (my baseline bet for Jan Pause) - which caused folks to chase protection.

- Remember, in July/Aug 5, market was falling with yields, dollar and oil which triggered the yen carry trade unwind, forcing the de-risking in concentration bets, so that value got a bid (relatively) vs MAG7. This time, value was crushed going into 12/18 & why I warned clients Mon/Tues that markets "crash from oversold not overbought", betting IWM + DIA were about to crater + pull down SPX + QQQ.

3. Deep Backwardation can be garden variety or covid-style, where selling needs to finish before it's safe to go long again. In both events, VX3M:VX tagged similar spots, but selling of SPY stocks was in full view over the prior month into the 8/5 capitulation low with the convexity of short covering on top of of 66% of puts sold on 8/5.

- There is no sign of capitulation low yet from 12/18 even though VX3M:VIX tagged similar level to 8/5. Not saying we won't mini bounce, but the conviction of a sustainable bounce is not present yet.

- One rule of thumb I use with clients, for which you are welcome to become, is <19.29 VIX>: Above is market bearish, below is market bullish. Keepin' it simple sometimes is best.

4. Macro Matters and why I warned Dec 12th "YIELDS ABOUT TO BREAK HIGHER" - and why I warned July 11th "TIMING DEFLATION & QQQ TOP & ROTATION"

- USD + 10Y crashed LOWER with oil and USDJPY into/including 8/5.
- USD + 10Y crashed HIGHER with USDJPY with oil flat into/including 12/18.

5. Negative Gamma - should it kick in ~$5850 SPX, below that and you know the saying: "Selling begets Selling". If we get that trigger - on govt shutdown drama, dollar wrecking ball, spiking 10Y yields (with spiking term premia), widening HY spreads, etc - then there is no reason not to expect SPX 5775 down to 5375.

For now, we've had but a mere flesh wound, a -5% correction from very overbought. But... if this 10Y2Y yield curve continues like I expected/posted for clients BEFORE this sell-off as main reason for the sell-off, then you may want to consider waiting to chase markets higher in the new year.

Keeping in mind, “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall” in 2025.

ARE YOU PRAYING FOR AN AUGUST 5TH CONVEXITY SHORT-COVERING RALLY?🙏🤲 https://t.co/dlHFqq059W


It's pretty much all bubbly because internals are strong, liquidity is still present, sellers have not stepped in. And option flow has been stupid bullish.

Summary: Melt-up warning: strong internals, present liquidity, absent sellers, and stupid-bullish option flow signal further upside for SPX and NVDA.

This is part and parcel for my warning of a melt up.

It’s pretty much all bubbly because internals are strong, liquidity is still present, sellers have not stepped in. And option flow has been stupid bullish.
$SPX $NVDA

https://t.co/RKM41wmeVd


Summary: Author is swing long silver, gold, and miners; endorses thesis that silver rallies ~100% in 12 months once China 2Y yield breaks below 1.6%.

China's Falling Yields and Skyrocketing Silver?

This is not my work, but that doesn't mean I can't admire it!

Jacek @lorek14728 presents a case for a potential big run in Silver I thought was worth posting - given we are also playing China bounce right now AND continued swing long in gold/silver/miners.

His main point is that once Chinese 2Y bond yield is below 1,6%, Silver has rallied 100% in the next 12 months.

I will admit, I have never noticed this, but I do now!


GDX gold miners; PICK metals & mining ETF


NVDA managing to stay above weekly ATH of 152.89 Nov high will indeed bring my $160-170 by earnings Feb 19th. (My exact PT is 171.70 in Q1)

Summary: Long NVDA to $160-170 by Feb 19 earnings (PT 171.70 Q1); SMH swing long target 272.46 once above 264.

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 1/6/25

NVDA: I posted my new MAR financed call spread trade Dec 20th:
"I don't understand techie as much as I understand NVDA getting supported at 129.80 100D and moving back into critical 55D 136 during a market swoon where SPX dropped 5%. Once it can get/stay above 136 this can move higher above daily trendline resistance at 140 ... and bring SMH + QQQ with it."

Today I posted stacked above it in #swing-ideas:
"NVDA - An UPdate. Too much too soon? Or too much of a good thing? Either way, that MARCH financed call spread is up a decent 5600% or $5.60/contract.

So what's next? Well, NVDA managing to stay above weekly ATH of 152.89 Nov high will indeed bring my $160-170 by earnings Feb 19th. (My exact PT is 171.70 in Q1, but we know trading is not a game of perfect.)"

Reason for the season?
Falling DXY on Trudeau announcing a rumored exit Sunday night. Plus CES event all week with Jensen as keynote speaker - as discussed Friday morning - plus expected Q4 semi sales of strength. All together, semis ignited higher and dragged SMH sector and QQQ with it.

SMH gapped $10 higher - $10 from swing long PT of 272.46 and $10 above its Friday close. Gravity more likely to take hold before it can get/stay > key monthly resistance at 262.26. Once above 264, the next open air PT is 272.46. Add time.

QQQ - opened up ~1% but I said in live trading room, "above 594 is bullish" (before it ran to 527.92), "below is not" (where it is just toying right now.

With net buying under the surface and option flow on aggregate bullish, very tough to short, AND YET, as I warned in my #samanthas-market-thoughts premarket, the MARKET IS REPAIRING under the surface and cumulative flows are still bearish! Don't be complacent/Expect chop at a minimum.

Let’s review Swing Trades, Stocks of Interest, and Macro Trades…

UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE AT https://t.co/uD7G1gC9t8

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 1/6/25

NVDA - An UPdate. Too much too soon? Or too much of a good thing? Either way, that MARCH financed call spread is up a decent 5600% or $5.60/contract.

UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE

https://t.co/XqMBOGxslD


SMH gapped $10 higher - $10 from swing long PT of 272.46 ... Once above 264, the next open air PT is 272.46


They are eating their competitor's lunch for starters! And they serve a PREPAID client base (read: poor and growing demographic). $TMUS

Summary: Bullish TMUS on competitor share gains and expanding prepaid/lower-income demographic.

@nope_its_lily They are eating their competitor’s lunch for starters! And they serve a PREPAID client base (read: poor and growing demographic). $TMUS

$TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. Q3 2024 Earnings Call Key Highlights:

📈 Strong Postpaid Growth:

T-Mobile delivered the best Q3 postpaid phone net additions in a decade, driven by record low churn and continued growth in gross adds. Postpaid customer additions are expected to reach 5.6 https://t.co/vtnhdtMLCT


Summary: Holding swing longs in XLU, XLP, XLV for clients since March 25; defensive sector rotation play.

2000 you say.

$XLU outperformance.

Rec'd swing long for clients since March 25th this year - with $XLP $XLV.

#GrowthValueRotation

Fun #finTwitt fact:
Utilities is the top S&P 500 sector YTD at 20.3% vs 14.7% for the SPX. If it holds, it will be the 4th time since 1973 ranked #1. The other 3 were 1977, 2000 & 2011. Any guesses as to how the SPX did in those years?
"One of these things is not like the other." https://t.co/zVvGFzp3Aa


Summary: Expects oil spike to $79-80 and VIX to 25 imminently.

Oil Spike Incoming

"$WTIC $79-80 and $VIX at 25 in a New York minute"

https://t.co/iiWbBNWVuq


Price Discovery in Big Pharma stocks still has room to go...This will remove the liability shield Big Pharma (& their investors) have had, making them accountable for injuries caused by their products.

Summary: Bearish on Big Pharma ETFs; repeal of 1986 vaccine liability shield removes key protection, implying further downside price discovery ahead.

Price Discovery in Big Pharma stocks still has room to go...

One bill that is co-sponsored by Massie is to repeal the The National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986

This will remove the liability shield Big Pharma (& their investors) have had, making them accountable for injuries caused by their products.

$XLV $IBB $XBI

The new Congress begins on January 3rd, but President Trump doesn’t take office until January 20th.

With MAJORITIES in the House and the Senate, we should have at least a dozen bills to shrink government overreach on his desk awaiting his signature by the first day of his term!


it remains: A massive utility/staple With a massively wide moat (Bank of Apple) That makes investors lazy rich. So we can't unload it because it's ubiquitous and AI-enabling its way into our 'best future self'

Summary: Bullish AAPL despite valuation concerns: wide moat, utility-like stickiness, AI optionality, and unholdable/unloadable position.

$AAPL - say anything negative you want about it but it remains:

A massive utility/staple

With a massively wide moat
(Bank of Apple)

That makes investors lazy rich.

So we can’t unload it because it’s ubiquitous
and AI-enabling its way into our ‘best future self’

While making the majority of users dumber from less critical thinking & more hyper/addicted than sugar itself!

Perfect business model!

$AAPL Selling for $3.43trln.

FY 2024 Net Income at $94bln, so ~34X Earnings.

Yet no growth... In fact, PRODUCTS had a negative growth, saved by Services. https://t.co/U6irv0Nkzq


Summary: Bearish BTC targeting 50K → 40K → 4K; only wrong if price gets and stays above $70K.

@BittelJulien Respectfully, I am so taking the other side of this trade.
$BTCUSD more likely to break 50K on way to 40,000 on way to 4000 next.

I am wrong and long only if it can get and stay above $70K but I sincerely doubt it.

This year’s Bitcoin price structure is starting to look eerily similar to 2019...

Take a close look at the chart – it’s almost a perfect fractal of what we saw back then.

Bitcoin has been stuck in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation https://t.co/8p6tDTIBoL


$MSFT moving higher into ATH levels as part of the "Bullish a Growth Rotation ala Summer 2024" since Dec 2nd

Summary: Long MSFT targeting ATH levels on bullish growth rotation; #NotDone implies move continues.

$MSFT moving higher into ATH levels as part of the “Bullish a Growth Rotation ala Summer 2024” since Dec 2nd as $IWM breadth broke down on that day + has continued since.
#NotDone

JOIN US to see when it is ;-)


Melt-up SWING long targets STILL in play for momentum: $QQQ 548

Summary: Still-active melt-up swing long targets: QQQ $548, TSLA $474, SMH $272, BTC $130-135K, ETH next to run, MSTR not done.

Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 12/16/24

Melt-up SWING long targets STILL in play for momentum:
💠$QQQ 548 - since OCT 7th: “QQQ support of $465 meant $478.83 and then $493.15 as short-term targets with $495.41 still in view. Melt-up PT: $548”
💠$TSLA 474 - since OCT 17th: “> $237, it could double - in time - to $474 area.”
💠$SMH 272 - since Oct: “"One More High" of SPX $6010 and $SMH 272 is still in play until year-end.”
💠$BTC $130-135K since Oct 17th: “> $65K area (green arrow), then it could double to $130k in time”
💠$ETH is next to run
💠$MSTR not done going up, even if it is the 2021 meme stock of 2024
and more!!!

UPGRADE TO PRO FOR ALL MACRO-TO-MICRO TRADE SET-UPS!
 https://t.co/5YYbDNvL1R


$TSLA 474 - since OCT 17th: "> $237, it could double - in time - to $474 area."


$SMH 272 is still in play until year-end


$MSTR not done going up, even if it is the 2021 meme stock of 2024


Summary: Short SMCI below $606 with price targets $428.69 and $357, erasing all YTD gains.

Way before Hindenberg, there was @theOrcaFin

His May Substack as 🔥
https://t.co/zxnxVv6e4D

As discussed in my #LiveTradingRoom Mon:
Short $SMCI below $606 with 2 PTs:
$428.69 and $357

Yes, $357 because that = Jan 2024 breakout. Translation: ALL gains erased for the year.


Summary: Long TLT since April; productivity > wages reduces inflation/wage-spiral risk, giving Fed room to run hot — bullish bonds.

Another reason why I have rec'd bonds to clients since April. $TLT

They love productivity > wages.

Goolsbee said, "nothing is more important than the productivity growth rate."

Why? If productivity growth offsets wage growth, then the Fed has less fear higher wages can stoke inflation. No wage spiral.

He also said if productivity continues to run above long-term trend, "it will definitely change the way we think about the economy."

Translation: Fed can let it run hot, as long as productivity is outpacing wages.

So what asset class cares most about (wage) inflation? All of them, but especially, BONDS!

Another thing bonds just love and forgot to mention yday:

PRODUCTIVITY > WAGES > INFLATION

*(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: 2.3% V 1.8%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 0.9% V 1.7%E

And higher jobless claims pulling recession risk forward = SAFETY PAYS.


Summary: Short DIA to 433.20/422.62, IWM to 224.23, and QQQ/SPX as catch-down trades on breadth breakdown, yield spike, and VX3:VIX ratio warning.

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 12/17/24

💠Growth over Value still in play, but for NYFANG, QTUM & BITCOIN only. And VXN with VIX past few days. Value still not safe. Today’s victim: REM (REITs) - with XLF, KRE + KIE (remember my warning earlier this month that insurers were rolling over? Do they all smell the yield spike now?

💠I showed not only the continued breadth breakdown and net selling under the surface but also warned that ‘crashes occur from oversold not overbought’ territory. And my repeated mantra: in lieu of sector rotation there will be volatility.

💠I showed my VX3:VIX ratio warning that it would likely push below 1.20 ratio and pull market lower. It did.

💠I showed my US-JP yield differential as bearish and how it would influence stocks. It reversed lower Dec 4th and now QQQ with SPX are looking as a catch down trade.

💠DIA en route short to 433.20 ~100D with 422.62 overshoot if we see that 55D break, and IWM at my 230 PT with 55D just below at 230.30 looking unlikely to hold so 224.23.

💠and so much more…

UPGRADE TO PRO!

https://t.co/EqbVewNf7Y


IWM at my 230 PT with 55D just below at 230.30 looking unlikely to hold so 224.23


QQQ with SPX are looking as a catch down trade


Summary: TLT more likely to rise on a Trump victory than a Kamala victory; bullish TLT.

@SehrLangsam2 @DannyDayan5 Much more likely $TLT rises on a Trump victory in my opinion.

@DannyDayan5 @ubenjammin2 @SamanthaLaDuc @ces921 @trentkelp Buy $TLT ahead of a Kamala victory ( $XBI $XBH $KRE $TAN) - mark it down.
Divided Congress (senate def going GOP), lame duck prez, but better social.
Vol heading back to sub 15 regardless...


Summary: Don't short gasoline/crude amid extreme cold snap hitting 80M Americans; implied long WTIC.

Clients know: “Don’t short gasoline” h/t @oilin60 🎩

$WTIC #OOTT

Nearly 80 million Americans will be below 0°F by next Tuesday when extremely cold Canadian / Siberian Arctic air descends on the Lower 48.

The nationwide average low temperature will be only 6°F https://t.co/1tK8M7ijex


If China does a second devaluation of the CNH versus Gold ... then we are likely to see the CNH plunge versus Gold, and if they maintain their relative FX at the same time the USD will plunge along with the CNH versus Gold

Summary: Long Chinese equities and gold on CNH devaluation thesis; CNH and USD both lose vs gold as China pushes asset prices higher via currency debasement.

China's Saturday "hot mic" moment - txs @Luther97777506 for the share!

By default or design, it will hold investors' interest in China stocks big picture, as they await for fiscal spending to be approved & then announced. Discussed repeatedly in my client posts:

1. THE CHINA BAZOOKA - Sept 24th
2. IS THE CHINA BAZOOKA STICKY ENOUGH? - Oct 3rd
3. HOW TO PLAY CHINA'S PARABOLA - Oct 5th
4. CHINA'S RHETORIC/STIMULUS MEETING SATURDAY - Oct 11th

So far, this is all playing out perfectly.

But here's the BIGGER reason to own Chinese equities, even if they don't pass fiscal ...
H/t @GraphCall

When you buy Gold with your own currency, commodities (assets, stocks, property) go up versus the currency. That is the devaluation China has been doing all year!

So for this recent round of monetary & capital market stimulus,

"If it is not enough they will devalue the CNH versus Gold more (that's the normal way to do a devaluation BTW), and the USD will move also against Gold, and the USD assets will move "up", but by less than the USD goes down against the Gold. And the Chinese assets will be in a pressure cooker and move much faster because they are much cheaper... "

Classical Economics is a marvelous edge in understanding Macro & at LaDucTrading, we are at a distinct advantage in having Geoffrey as macro advisor for clients!
https://t.co/IWXWxOfOLZ

"I think people in the West should be careful what they wish for on CHINA deval. If China does a second devaluation of the CNH versus Gold (remember they don't need USD to buy Gold, they have a Gold exchange in Shanghai in Yuan), then we are likely to see the CNH plunge versus Gold, and if they maintain their relative FX at the same time  the USD will plunge along with the CNH versus Gold.

China absolutely DOES NOT need a devaluation for exports, trade balance, production / consumption purposes - like Argentina.

The CNH is down huge versus Gold. And the replacement costs for real-estate got a big pump upwards in China.

Basically,
When you push down your currency vs Gold that moves up asset prices...."

“Wanna discuss the specific numbers?”
“Not now …”

At today’s presser, China’s Minister of Finance whispering with his deputy. This is one of the most striking moments at today’s presser.

It suggests that specific numbers of fiscal stimulus had been discussed and are in the https://t.co/SFTZsWd8sK


Summary: ETH looks poised to double; related crypto plays BTCUSD, HOOD, MARA, MSTR, ETHE all implied bullish.

$ETH Looks Like A Double In The Making

$BTCUSD $HOOD $MARA $MSTR $ETHE

https://t.co/cRwSoACSAK


Summary: Uber-bearish oil, yields, equities; uber-bullish bonds and defensive stocks under a 'Liquidity Deflation' thesis.

Respectfully disagree.

You see RESURGENT INFLATION.

I see the exact opposite.

Everything changed (for me) in March, confirmed in April and I doubled down in May.

I am Uber-bearish oil and yields and equities. I am Uber-bullish bonds and defensive stocks and cash.

I call it:

LIQUIDITY DEFLATION

@SamanthaLaDuc ICYMI, here is my piece about why they shouldn’t be cutting at all.


Uber-bullish bonds and defensive stocks and cash


Summary: BTC to $130K then crashes; gold picks up; SPX tops Mar-May into recession; USD falls on Trump policies dragging foreign equity flows out.

I couldn’t agree more with Joseph here. @josephwang

And I’ve already gone on record with clients on these points:

1. Fed cuts more than 50 basis points! Attempted January pause doesn’t last.

2. Cuts are not seen as bullish (and take place into inflation - see term premia).

3. Market stability - in place since Nov ‘23 - Dec ‘24 save one-n-done Aug VIX 65 print - makes way to market instability. Many more bouts AS markets top into health, war, growth slowdown fears - actual or perceived.

4. Here we have different process, same result…

Joseph:
Equities decline with USD so foreign funds leave.

Me: Trump policies devalue dollar - USD demand falls.
Foreign funds leave. Equities decline more.

5. Bitcoin $130K still in play since Oct call (if $65K then $130K) but then crashes. Gold flows pick up as BTC falls. SPX tops Mar-May and recession risk is pulled forward end of 2025.


Summary: Watching SVXY for bounce at 100W; QQQ/SMH may tag downside targets (548/272) in Q1 before a bigger short conviction forms.

Samantha's RECORDED Live Trading Room - 12/19/24

💠FOMC hawkish cut I expected, and the SEP reinforced this point, so pricing out rate cuts is still working itself out as govt shutdown looms. The market reaction reflected a tightening of conditions, for which PCE Friday morning might help to loosen. Translation: bonds, yen, gold/silver might find some brief relief tomorrow.

💠Today's market bounce is a convexity move from VIX being sold at 27, a very popular/historic place to sell btw. Just keep in mind my intermarket review this morning from first hour + last 5 min of room: I see no confirmation yet the selling is done, so for the next few days this market is still at risk AND I still see selling underneath - even today as I showed.

💠SVXY has come down into its 100W, so this is where I would look for a reversal/bounce potential start to form, but not until next week. USDJPY is at resistance on wkly at 157.62; 10Y T-Note futures tagged all 3 short targets; NYSE fell into 19000 target I gave Monday. So we are on a lot of support.

💠But...I'm waiting for highest conviction swings based on my indicators basing and turning back up. That will be helped when VIX gets/stays < 19.29 again, for example. Until then I will suggest caution and patience.

💠Macro still worries me in 2025, and the spiking higher USD + Yields could be foreplay. But I also have QQQ 548 and SMH 272 still to tag in Q1 before I get more convicted for big picture short. NVDA held pretty well in this sell-off, ironically.

JOIN US LIVE at https://t.co/MrMkwZYdvt or UPGRADE TO PRO on Substack.

 https://t.co/u924mRl0Ea


QQQ 548 and SMH 272 still to tag in Q1 before I get more convicted for big picture short


Summary: Author flags nuclear/energy beneficiaries of Chris Wright's nomination as Energy Secretary; implied bullish on uranium and nuclear stocks.

"energy is the agent of change" - Chris Wright, Liberty

Our new Secretary of Energy

Big nuclear proponent.

$URA $OKLO $SMR $FLR

Chris Wright, the Chief Executive of Liberty Energy and Board Member of the Oklo Advanced Nuclear-Technology Company, has been tapped by President-Elect Donald J. Trump as Secretary of Energy. https://t.co/WmWmIGkgx7


Summary: Long BTC-proxy basket MSTR/HOOD/COIN/MARA plus TSLA as earnings/Trump/crypto trade; positions still held.

Yes, I recommended bitcoin swing Long to clients weeks ago using $MSTR $HOOD $COIN and $MARA as proxies. MARA earnings 11/12 holds special interest.

Oh and $TSLA was rec’d earnings, Trump & crypto trade 🎯

Sector rotation turns basket trading - when they all move together 🔥

Gonna be nuts.  It's a crash-up in Elon/crypto land.  Props to @SamanthaLaDuc for calling MARA perfectly


industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'


$TSLA was rec'd earnings, Trump & crypto trade


Summary: Short DIA targeting 433.20 / 422.62 overshoot; short IWM targeting 224.23 on 55D break below 230.30.

Pretty sure this would have helped to have leading into today...

💠"DIA en route short to 433.20 ~100D with 422.62 overshoot if we see that 55D break, and IWM at my 230 PT with 55D just below at 230.30 looking unlikely to hold so 224.23."

#LiveTradingRoom

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 12/17/24

💠Growth over Value still in play, but for NYFANG, QTUM & BITCOIN only. And VXN with VIX past few days. Value still not safe. Today’s victim: REM (REITs) - with XLF, KRE + KIE (remember my warning earlier this month that insurers


Summary: Holds ongoing short HIMS and long LLY, both positions already established and still live.

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

$HIMS was already a swing short past 2 months and $LLY was already a trend long past 2 years. 👍✊

https://t.co/SECKcSleV8

$LLY is now selling vials of its blockbuster weight-loss drug Zepbound to patients for half the price to boost access and supply.

This is not good for the companies that try to sell compounded knockoffs -- $HIMS down 8% pre-market on the news. https://t.co/KK6xyo4sCN


$LLY was already a trend long past 2 years


Summary: NVDA seen heading higher into year-end, up to 148-150, on pure hopium before semis top and roll over into 2025.

These guys are players!!!
Sell off China stocks on disappointing fiscal promises, then trick US into buying back up before the weekend.
🔥🫶

Warning: This could be the game for a few months - I still think China will trigger fiscal spend AFTER the election to suck in lots of US spec money - away from NVDA et al.

But, in the meantime, I can see $NVDA headed higher into YE. Like up to 148-150 kind of higher. On pure hopium and one last gasp as semis top & roll over into 2025.

China will likely time their fiscal easing then ;-).

Well, well, well. The plot thickens.

From MarketWatch:
Take two — Beijing sets new press conference for fiscal discussion on Saturday

Good time to read this:

https://t.co/qkFrUhN9UN


Summary: Bearish QQQ and SPX; US-JP yield differential reversal signals a catch-down trade lower.

Also posted for clients yday:

"💠I showed my VX3:VIX ratio warning that it would likely push below 1.20 ratio and pull market lower. It did.
💠I showed my US-JP yield differential as bearish and how it would influence stocks. It reversed lower Dec 4th and now QQQ with SPX are looking as a catch down trade."

and now QQQ with SPX are looking as a catch down trade.

GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS
https://t.co/Qs53c4MwmW


Summary: Held short SMCI (uber bearish) vs long NVDA, SMH, QQQ (uber bullish); client up 600% short SMCI.

I LOVE running a live trading room & helping clients make money.

"Hi Sam I am short SMCI up 600%… should I be more greedy? I have 350P expiring October 4. Thoughts?"

I have been uber bullish $NVDA $SMH $QQQ but uber bearish $SMCI. 😉❤🔥🙏

BREAKING: Super Micro Computer stock, $SMCI, has now been halted 3 TIMES and is down 13%.

This comes just minutes after the US Justice Department announced a probe into the company.

$SMCI recently delayed their 10-K filing for FY2024.

The company said additional time is needed https://t.co/Mbbrt6uzE4


I have been uber bullish $NVDA $SMH $QQQ


Summary: Tactical short SPY at 540 and QQQ at 447 into the Friday NFP session; warns bulls need Monday gap to get bought.

My #LiveTradingRoom NFP review for clients pre-market, PLUS my rant to be careful PLUS my tactical short into $SPY 540 + $QQQ 447 Friday - something for everyone!!

Oh, and why I say "Bulls Better Hope Monday Morning Gap Gets Bought" ;-)

See ya tomorrow!

https://t.co/5uDXj7dxTz


Summary: Author holds a short oil position, reinforced by Trump's pledge to cut energy prices 50%.

That works well for my short oil thesis.

But does he know that yields follow oil? 🤔🤫

Trump says he vows to bring energy prices down 50%, per Bloomberg.


Summary: Bitcoin trade not over; BTC can double from here, bullish on BTC and related equities MSTR, COIN, MARA, PYPL, SQ.

From $65K to $100K, is this bitcoin trade over?

Nah, as I said to clients then: Bitcoin Can Double
 – $BTCUSD $MSTR $COIN $MARA $PYPL $SQ

https://t.co/xmXSw3CTQy


Bitcoin Can Double – $BTCUSD $MSTR $COIN $MARA $PYPL $SQ


Summary: Bearish on SPX and QQQ; expects market to retrace to Nov 1 2023 Fed Pause levels.

Recorded this for clients at the MAG7 top on 07/09/2024.

I still contend market is on its way to revisiting the Nov 1st 2023 Fed Pause & Yellen Yahtzee price.

$SPX $QQQ #NFP #10Y

The last time a MAG 7 stock made a new ATH on a CLOSING basis was over 60 days ago on July 9th.


I don't see higher oil now into EOY. Demand (actual and speculative positioning) is simply not strong enough to compensate short-term supply disruptions.

Summary: Bearish crude oil into EOY; demand insufficient to offset supply disruptions, with $65.65 as critical support already reached.

From my JUNE 19th client post on Crude Oil falling to $65.65.  $WTIC

We. Are. There.

“I don’t see higher oil now into EOY.

Demand (actual and speculative positioning) is simply not strong enough to compensate short-term supply disruptions.

As such, I am paying closer attention to the yen carry trade as oil serves as a sort of “currency hedge” against Yen devaluation.

By that I mean, if oil prices go down, typically the yen strengthens. And we know that is not allowed. The Yen is a political instrument, not economic one.

So I see lots of reasons WHY the yen would continue to fall, but what if…

Crude breaks lower not higher, and what if it breaks critical support at $65.65, and stays below?

How do US 10Y yields rise if yen carry trade unwinds …”

https://t.co/3Bk5efnTbX

CLIENTS have my daily updated analysis on yen, yields, oil price targets. Become one!

#Oil is falling off a cliff!
This will add to the ‘we are heading for a US #recession’ narrative. https://t.co/7hjwrydmwQ


Summary: Expects US 10Y yield to fail above 4.09% and fall back, supporting a bond price bounce.

After calling for a yield spike pre-market Fed day Sept 18th, I told clients I don't expect the US 10Y yield to get/stay above 4.09% big picture. Overshoot then back below, like Jacek expects, would also work. It would be the "fake breakout, fast failure" to support bond bounce.

10Y Yield update:
I don't expect higher yield than 4,2%
Downward minimum target - 2,9-3% https://t.co/NGpz0PKP7K


Summary: Bullish INTC; expects price to recover back to book value.

God Candle for Intel $INTC https://t.co/vKdu5hGSvy


Summary: Expects Trump strike on Iran: oil and USD spike, US yields up, equities crushed on yen-carry unwind, then peace.

@Rebecca98869736 I really really think Trump is gonna go after Iran - soon after he’s in power. It just doesn’t pass the smell test.

US yields will spike with dollar - and oil vey!

Equities will get crushed as yen carry forces an unwind of both the carry and basis trades.

Then peace 🙏

@SamanthaLaDuc Rumors are that Iran is already unhappy about Russia’s attitude in regard to Israel, which makes me believe there are big things happening behind the curtains. Most of the Russian seized assets are in Europe though and Europe’s response is unclear now. https://t.co/n2xPdXAuzN


Summary: Bullish NVDA into 11/20 earnings, expecting a beat.

So what's left on my "One More High" from Sept 18th now that $SPX $6010 has hit?

$SMH $272.46

Oh, NVDA... counting on you to crush earnings 11/20!

Yes, I still think your round-tripping is coordinated collusion, but I also know it takes years for Proper Ponzi's to play out! So let's make hay while the sun shines!!

https://t.co/RkpvJuVVwJ

@hoanandony We’re 5% away from 6000. I’ve got 5820 with 6010 on my bingo card as the overshoot for 2024. Let’s hit it and call it a day shall we?


Summary: Bullish semis: NVDA higher off $136, SMH into $272.46, ARM long working, QQQ to $548 target — AVGO earnings seen as the sector turn.

I have no edge with earnings, but I was pretty confident that $AVGO earnings would be the turn for semis :-)

$NVDA to move higher off $136, finally.
$SMH to move higher into $272.46, finally.
$ARM as chase long to position in yday: working.
$QQQ to push into $548 target price #2024

JOIN US 💚: https://t.co/5qudNqgwEe

$ARM. I put this in a one month timeframe to highlight. Yesterday @SamanthaLaDuc highlighted this as a chase at the open. I have been adding to my allocations per trade all year. This was the highest allocation I did for a chase and it netted me 2%. This could turn into a swing https://t.co/qal2jEJ41o


$SMH to move higher into $272.46, finally.


$ARM as chase long to position in yday: working.


$QQQ to push into $548 target price #2024


Summary: If BOJ delays until March, JPY and US bonds fall, 10Y yields rise, acting as headwind to equity melt-up.

I remind...
Ueda has a press conference then BOJ decides...

As McElligott of Nomura suggests what we already feel: A potential melt-up for markets is afoot.

Unless, as I contend, we get a macro trigger to interrupt the flows.

BOJ would be that trigger IF they price in more than an expected 25bp (dovish) hike.

And if BOJ pushes out until March, JPY & US BONDS will fall hard, pushing higher US 10Y yield, serving as headwind to this market advance.

PLACE YOUR BETS

https://t.co/WEfgNKKLhb


Summary: Endorses long hard assets (gold, oil) over paper; bearish USD on dedollarization and structural supply issues persisting despite geopolitical easing.

💯

I said “What’s the trade” for Trump removing sanctions on Russia. The trend is still a morass of money printing that has caused USD & UST to be worth less big picture.

THINGS OVER PAPER™

@SamanthaLaDuc The kneejerk answer is short oil and gold, but I think the decrease in geopolitical tensions won't stop dedollarization, nor will it solve the long-term structural supply issues for crude oil. The genie is already out of the bottle. Long hard assets


Summary: Bearish precious metals: SLV down 10% with more downside ahead; GLD implied same.

@jg255mass @KingKong9888 @infraa_ The reaction to precious metals made perfect sense to me. In fact, I warned clients strongly on Oct
29th - while also on record expecting a Trump win.

$SLV dumped 10% and it’s not done. $GLD

https://t.co/Edj42oEPFP

@SamanthaLaDuc @KingKong9888 @infraa_ The reaction of metals to his win makes no sense


I bet energy and mining stocks in, or invested heavily in, Canada are going 'work well'

Summary: Bullish on Canadian energy and mining stocks over years if Poilievre wins, citing removal of policy malaise.

Canadian energy & mining ETFs; XEG energy, XMA materials

If this guy wins, Canada is going to grow faster than US. 🚀

We’re talking years of malaise and repression removed!

And I bet energy and mining stocks in, or invested heavily in, Canada are going ‘work well’. 😉

JUST IN: Pierre Poilievre HITS BACK:

Trump is right. Trade is unfair.

"You're buying our oil at a discount. We should build more refineries....and bypass you... and you can buy from Venezuela and Iran" https://t.co/Jdb9HyvsUM


Summary: BTC to $130K then crashes; gold benefits from BTC decline; SPX tops Mar-May with recession risk by end-2025; USD weakens on Trump policies dragging equities lower.

I couldn’t agree more with Joseph here @josephwang

And I’ve already gone on record with clients on these 2025 market calls:

1. Fed cuts more than 50 basis points! Attempted January pause doesn’t last.

2. Cuts are not seen as bullish (and take place into inflation - see term premia).

3. Market stability - in place since Nov ‘23 - Dec ‘24 save one-n-done Aug VIX 65 print - makes way to market instability. Many more bouts AS markets top into health, war, growth slowdown fears - actual or perceived.

4. Here we have different process, same result…

Joseph:
Equities decline with USD so foreign funds leave.

Me: Trump policies devalue dollar - USD demand falls.
Foreign funds leave. Equities decline more.

5. Bitcoin $130K still in play since Oct call (if $65K then $130K) but then crashes. Gold flows pick up as BTC falls. SPX tops Mar-May and recession risk is pulled forward end of 2025.


Summary: Bearish NVO continuing lower; expects LLY to break below critical $800 support.

@ThetaBurnVictim $NVO has already started its descent. It will be hit more - bringing $LLY below critical $800 level.


Summary: Endorses $210 PT on BABA, originally rec'd long at $68 in Jan 2024; collaborator still uber bullish China.

OMG Geoffrey @GraphCall has a $210 price target on $BABA!

I rec’d long to clients in Jan 2024 (at 2016 IPO price of $68) and he did a FULL fundamental analysis for clients in Feb for $baba + others. 🔥����

He is still Uber bullish China!

https://t.co/hwkQFNyk7w https://t.co/UBUQUk5fP3

@SamanthaLaDuc At 210USD /share $BABA should at fair value on Sum of the parts....


Summary: Bullish gold: multiple marginal buyers plus global currency debasement driving demand for hard assets over paper.

Excellent point on who buys gold NOW.

I would add it’s not only an excellent FX hedge, but as local currencies are devalued globally, folks would prefer to buy THINGS OVER PAPER!

Pre-2020, Gold had one marginal buyer, that being gold-backed ETFs.

Today, gold has at least 3 marginal buyers that can overlap or alternate each other. They are:

- Gold backed Western ETFs (which buy, sell or hold based on US real rates);

- Central Banks seeking higher gold https://t.co/X6O57SBLnP


Summary: Bullish META as next mover, MCD continuing to work, and COIN as a sustained long play.

$TSLA worked! $META up next!
$MCD working! $COIN in it to win it!

Last Wed @HansCashFlow and shared our market views & option plays. We meet this Wed after the close & do it again. Join us!

https://t.co/LygCCmUIuY


I have reviewed this $GLD chart for clients literally every day in my live trading room with $250 target from $194

Summary: Long GLD with $250 target from $194 on swing-trade basis; also reviewing SLV and GDX alongside it for clients.

No dig on day trading or AI for trading triggers, but why don't more people swing trade?

I mean 247 to 250 is cool, but I have reviewed this $GLD chart for clients (with $SLV $GDX) literally every day in my live trading room with $250 target from $194.

My point: zoom out!
THERE IS SO MUCH MONEY TO BE MADE IN SWING TRADING!!

Especially if you use options with time & roll em.

$GLD is on tear. AI predicts close to 250 soon https://t.co/jMZqZcWVer


I have reviewed this $GLD chart for clients (with $SLV $GDX) literally every day in my live trading room


Summary: Bullish GOOGL on Willow quantum chip breakthrough; frames it as a sea-change akin to NVDA/AI, with client adding to long-held core position.

I have a wealth manager client who has a core position in $GOOGL he built up 10yrs ago.

He last added to it: 2 yrs ago

And then again: 2 days ago

This is a sea change.

My 2024 price target of $194 for him was taken out today!

$GOOGL: the new $NVDA
#Quantum: the new #AI

🚨🇺🇸GOOGLE’S “WILLOW” QUANTUM CHIP MAKES CLASSICAL COMPUTERS LOOK LIKE DINOSAURS!

Google just flexed its Quantum AI muscles, claiming its “Willow” chip solved in 5 minutes what classical computers couldn’t crack in billions of years. Yes, billions!

The 105-qubit chip brings https://t.co/veQzOB2Jp0


bullish on Nvidia for the next 3-6 months given TSM's revenue guidance and Nvidia's comments about "insane demand"

Summary: Bullish NVDA for 3-6 months on TSMC guidance and insane demand, then bearish into 2025 on lower TSMC capex.

In a nutshell:

“bullish on Nvidia for the next 3-6 months given TSM’s revenue guidance and Nvidia’s comments about “insane demand” but to expect slower than expected growth in all of 2025 for Nvidia given TSMC’s lower capex guidance for 2024.”

$TSM $NVDA $SMH

So when do they front run the turn 🤔🤨

$TSM, the primary fab for both $NVDA and $AAPL, reported strong results and guidance this morning.

As it relates to Nvidia, High Performance Computing (HPC) revenue at TSMC grew 11% q/q in Q3 versus 6% in Q3 of 2023. In addition, TSM mentioned robust AI demand for the second


Summary: Conditional calls: Trump win = short gold/silver, bonds defended; Harris win = long gold/silver.

I hate Trump.
But his team... his team is actually incredibly competent.

Ron Paul
Elon Musk
RFKJr
Tulsi Gabbard
Vivek
Shanahan
Vance

My bet: IF Trump gets elected, we will have short term market & economic PAIN, but bonds would get defended and gold/silver would suffer.

If Harris, it's business as usual and we need MUCH more gold & silver.

@SamanthaLaDuc Not a chance. He bankrupted six times, now tell me again how financially responsible he is.


Summary: Bullish crude oil and energy equities; ULSD short covering still ahead, fits Tuesday client trade setup.

Imagine, ULSD oil shorts haven't even covered much...

$WTIC $XLE #OOTT

Fits really well with this trade set-up for clients Tuesday: https://t.co/9G9y8P5cBs

ULSD - HEY SHORTY! ..... shifting focus from CL, latest CFT-SEE data shows ULSD MM shorts still at record highs, OI data suggests little has changed in the late week rally post report, interesting to see how this gets resolved, these positioning extremes seldom end quietly #OOTT https://t.co/uMmlomEG5b


Summary: NVDA calls at $118 now targeting $122; bullish continuation call on NVDA.

Just need to keep it together post boring Jobless Claims & expected ECB 25bps cut for the open!

Those $118 $NVDA calls now look good to 122 ;-)

#LiveTradingRoom
#MarketStructure
#OptionFlow

How NVDA saved the market: https://t.co/v0a8Jn4lBY

They knew.

1st thing I said premarket in my live trading room:

“They are hammering $NVDA calls. At close Tues, then at open with 10/4 strike and Jan all the way up to $118!”

Amidst all the great shorts, this one green-on -the-screen has played out well!


Summary: Short basket across NVDA, QQQ, SPX, oil, and gold from Thursday morning live trading room.

Basket Trading Short:
NVDA, QQQ, SPX, OIL, YIELDS & GOLD

From my #LiveTradingRoom Thursday morning!

https://t.co/Jtnu14CLJI


Summary: Bullish gold: USD structural decline from US trade competitiveness loss is driving gold higher.

US Trade Deficit deepened A LOT
Why does it matter?

Higher US rates & inflation make terms of trade ugly- esp with USD as reserve currency.

Geoffrey says "it has to stop or you get an abrupt deval - like the UK in 1927"

The Problem is: US production has become less + less competitive.

The "Solution", according to Trump, Lutnik & Bessent: The loss of competitiveness from US manufacturers means the USD has to fall! And that will save the US manufacturer.🤔😬

Logically, this is one really big reason why Gold is rising past year.

And ironically, this is why China has risen the past few decades.

"If the US did not have FX as reserve, CHINA would probably never have been able to advance so much like they did."

More words of wisdom from Geoffrey.
Engage with him directly here:
https://t.co/FR5sZU6PAp


Summary: Bearish S&P: endorses MS QDS view of $100–350bn forced systematic selling still ahead; says just flush it.

Just flush it.

"As the market continues to go lower and future forced systematic supply builds, many are asking how much more there is to go. Macro systematic length coming into Tuesday was in the 80th %ile versus the last 5 years, so the answer is a lot: at -2.2% in SPX QDS is forecasting nearly $100bn for sale over the next week. If leverage was to fall to the lows in Aug 2024 there would be an additional $100bn of supply ($200bn total). In a return to the leverage seen in the 2022 lows there would be an additional $150bn of supply on top of that ($350bn total)." (MS QDS)


Summary: Short AVGO into $170 target.

I actually didn't set this up until a client in my live trading room wanted to go long $AVGO on Monday and I said it was a  much better short into $170. 😉💃🎯

https://t.co/C2TEpvGYiA https://t.co/5kYHUYozXo


Summary: Bullish TSLA: China's retaliatory tariffs may actually help given Tesla's deep China investment exposure.

Good thread on impact of China's retaliatory 15% tariffs - which are specific to US energy/vehicle industries - versus Trump's blanket 10% tariff hit against China.

But given $TSLA is already heavily invested in China, Musk should do okay. In fact, this might even help. 😉🚗

🚨🇨🇳 China's retaliatory tariff will hit the United States tomorrow.

Here is how the U.S Corporations and consumers will be impacted - a thread🧵 https://t.co/Gi15CNOQNj


Summary: Baseline bet: yields crash to 3.5%, bonds/yen/VIX surge, dollar and oil fall, forcing an emergency Fed cut as basis trade unwinds.

VIX is a basis trade short with NDX long.
Bonds are a basis trade short with NXD long.
Yen is a basis trade short with NDX long.

My baseline bet has been:
As "oil as inflation hedge" crashes lower with yields crashes lower with dollar...
Yen & bonds crash higher with VIX.

Bessent wants the basis trade unwound.
Wall St IS positioned for this.
Main St is not.

---

Agree: "this time those who are short VIX are also short the basis -long futures, short bond. That's the achilees heel to watch. If it blows up, u can sell your 10s at 3% before FED does emergency anything."

My bet has been: 10Y yield breaks 4.1 to 3.9% then 3.5% Fed does an emergency cut.


oil as inflation hedge crashes lower with yields crashes lower with dollar


Summary: Bullish gold as the key fear/volatility asset amid sovereign default risk.

GOLD is the new VIX

Only sector that matters in a dance to the edge of default

https://t.co/5Ba4a9OeBa


Summary: Bearish US equities, banks, tech, dollar, yields, and oil: refi rejections signal duration risk, credit contraction, M2 decline, and equity selloff.

Mortgage Refi Rejections are stopping an even steeper equity sell off.

Hear me out!
Homeowners are sitting on $17 trillion in equity.

I expected Refis to pick up under 4.2% 10Y. ✅

But mortgage apps are being rejected at the highest rate in decades. 🤯

Lots of theories out there about folks not qualifying. I don’t buy it. Here’s why:

How about because bad things happen to banks when mortgage refinancing accelerates causing falling mortgage rates amidst no refi supplies (high coupon asset pools).

Banks are tight, rejecting credit demand - likely worried about a Duration Grab.

It’s going to plan as we get tighter MBS spreads, then more refinancing, then lower net interest margin at banks, then less credit formation, leading to more M2 declines.

And what’s negative for banks will be negative for tech and equity markets!

It makes me much more bearish dollar, yields and oil then I was back in July 2024!

Agreed, I was not referring to the generational REFI waves that took place at 2001, 2009, 2020 lows. Just an unlock of housing activity & refinancing on break of 4.2% 10Y yield.

As highlighted inside @TXMC chart...
To stimulate any refi activity, Fed would only need to have Fed https://t.co/GulnNTPeA3


Summary: Bearish ASO: below $47 support is broken, targeting $40 then $28 minimum after 5-wave monthly top at $75.

Fun game. My pick - even if doesn't fit your parameters above: $ASO - Rebranded IPO in Oct 2020 of $12. Now after a 5-wave monthly topped at $75, it has fallen to 'support' at $51, but it is 'ovah' below $47,  with $40 strong support for bounce until that breaks when $28 is in view (min).

$KKR will take a write-down. Bigger question: how many PE firms like KKR backing China-dependent US companies?

🚨 New recommendation alert...

Our team of analysts have been working on a Company with a $4+ billion market cap, which is sourcing more than 60% from China sees a potential margin pressure, potential store closings for the remainder of 2025.

Report/analysis/fin.model will be


Summary: NVDA defended by chip demand thesis; MAG7 faces re-rating and continued volatility post-DeepSeek.

"Demand for Intelligence" as your AI investment thesis - great line by @natebjones.

That and "we still need the chips to build and SERVE the next model"

Translation: $NVDA very likely gets defended with semis BUT MAG7 gets re-rated & volatility continues post DeepSeek.

https://t.co/unkA5DDA4Y


Summary: Author warns FOMO will meet FOMU (fear of messing up) on BABA and China tech broadly after >100% run; implied caution/bearish lean.

KWEB China internet tech; CQQQ China tech ETF

Oh boy. Now more people see it - AFTER our $BABA has risen >100% on stock basis. @GraphCall  😉

As I warned clients this week: “FOMO will meet FOMU on $BABA” -  & soon rest of China/China tech”

$BABA AI-iBaba (get it?) huge beats & ACCELERATION across the board. 👍 Tmall & Taobao +9% (up from +2%). Cloud +13% (up from +7%!) w/ superb AI growth! 🤪. International ecom +36% 😮 Wowowow! Logistics biz slow (1)%. Cost control 👍. $52bn cash pile.

BABA IS BACK, BABY! 🐉 https://t.co/1U1p3iJvXb


Squeezing margins on sky-high valuations... not priced in

Summary: Bearish WMT: implied price controls squeezing margins on sky-high valuations not yet priced in.

Implied Price Controls to make Trump's base feel protected...expected.
Squeezing margins on sky-high valutaions... not priced in.

Trump: Walmart should STOP trying to blame Tariffs as the reason for raising prices throughout the chain. Walmart made BILLIONS OF DOLLARS last year, far more than expected. Between Walmart and China they should, as is said, “EAT THE TARIFFS,” and not charge valued customers


Summary: Bearish oil: OPEC+ supply restart triggers a dump alongside yields and equities.

LOL - ya know what. I know this guy.

Oil dump. With yields. With equities.

IYKYK ��

OPEC+ to Begin Long-Delayed Supply Restart Amid Trump Pressure

OPEC+ will proceed with plans to restart halted oil production after repeated delays, despite pressure from President Donald Trump to reduce oil prices.

In an unexpected move, the group led by Saudi Arabia and


Summary: Bullish AAPL as a major beneficiary of DeepSeek/model commoditization thesis.

$AAPL a big DeepSeek winner

“in few years every apple device will ship with agi on board”

some people didn’t get my apple post about execs smiling this morning, so let me break it down a bit. the r1 news is massive for apple—like, generationally massive. apple bet early on model commoditization. they didn’t blow capex on some me-too race, didn’t overreact, didn’t


Summary: Long SMIC (#3 holding) and BABA (#1 holding); thesis: China will dominate chips in 10 years as sanctions accelerate domestic ecosystem build-out.

"China is the largest market for Chips.

China bought a lot of lower end DUV because because the Sanctions gave a fantastic impulse to build-out the China ecosystem.

The sanctions changed everything.

Now the Chinese companies CAN NOT defend buying Western Equipment when there is a China alternative.

They have 2 advantages: Low cost of capital (low rates to invest  in capex and invest in R&D), and they have 10X the amount of STEM graduates than the US.

I think in 10 years the Chip industry in the West will be destroyed and China will be a net exporter of Chips."

Geoffrey has been long $SMIC at 17 (#3 holding) and long $BABA (#1 holding) since the lows last year - sharing when & why with our clients.

Learn more about Geoffrey here:
https://t.co/ero6OhofM4


long $BABA (#1 holding) since the lows last year


Summary: Strongly bearish crude oil; expects WTI to print a $40-handle soon.

Not only was this an under-rated tweet… but we are going to see $WTIC with a 4-handle soon.

Also, about the yen …

In April/May/June I turned big oil bear big picture.
I've been showing this chart of $WTIC to clients every week since. Yes, we can play the counter-trend bounces on geo-political stress, but overall, my strong view is that we could be closer to $40 in next yr or so.

Citi out https://t.co/Z4LScXADxY


Summary: Very bearish crude oil; targets WTIC $60–40 by end-2025; any Iran-driven spike is a shorting opportunity.

I can see that Iran escalation by Trump 💯 - all but the higher-for-longer oil call. I am very bearish oil big picture. Last year said WTIC would fall into $60-40 range by end of 2025 (from $70-80 range 2024). Any spike on geopolitical tensions will be a short.

MAGA: Make America Go-It Alone 😆🎯


Summary: SLR relaxation for banks on treasuries seen as a bullish catalyst to keep the XLF/financials rally going.

This is one way they can keep the rally going …

#SLR $XLF #BondStuffing

“Who is going to buy our treasuries?”

We are…they are going to relax the SLR for banks regarding treasuries.
https://t.co/mMhyu5Bv2e


Summary: Bearish oil: WTIC below $67 still heading lower; Aramco's 32% dividend cut signals anticipation of further price declines.

Aramco plans to cut its dividend by 32% in 2025. This would be a very strong indication the world’s largest oil company is tightening its belt in anticipation of lower oil prices.

h/t @Alyosha745

As WTIC breaks $67, I still see lower... even before OPEC+ long-delayed supply restart

It also goes with my "oil dumping with yields and equities" since Feb 19th. https://t.co/mCkGcPc8gz


Summary: Bullish shipping costs/sector: 90-day tariff pause triggers supply shock, sold-out ships, and spiking freight rates.

BOAT global shipping ETF; BDRY dry bulk freight ETF

Another 90-day tariff delay that causes another supply-shock to spike shipping costs & trigger further delays/stress that further inflates prices.

Our ocean freight bookings from China to US increased 35% in the first day since the trade deal. A big backlog is looming, soon the ships will be sold out.


Summary: Short DAL with $42 PT; author's short rec from Jan 22 doubled down Mar 3 and still sees further downside as of Mar 13.

"Shares of Delta Air Lines were down more than 3% in afternoon trading after Jefferies downgraded the carrier, the most profitable in the U.S., to a hold rating from buy, and nearly halved its price target to $46, several weeks after the airline cut its first-quarter guidance."

$DAL - rec'd this short to clients JAN 22nd & doubled-down MAR 3rd & still said Mar 13th it wasn't done with $42PT... from $70.

Now they downgrade it? LOLOLOLOL

The Big Shorts - my Top Ten version anyway ;-)

$DAL $UAL $JETS $ARM $CVNA $ANF $IRM $INTU $NVO $FDX

https://t.co/j1MkgIb2Vn


Summary: Bullish on cloud and select chip plays as hyperscaler capex rises 40%; theme continues working.

CLOU Global X Cloud Computing; SKYY First Trust Cloud ETF

From chips to cloud. (This theme keeps working for us.) And also select chip plays ;-)

https://t.co/lz892lf5T8

MAG4 AI Capex spending expected to jump 40% this year.

Jefferies: The initial reaction to DeepSeek, namely that the hyperscalers would spend less, has been abandoned. Companies are now on course to invest $320bn in capex this year, up from $230bn last year. https://t.co/xA7oDAx9y9


SMH VanEck; SOXX iShares semiconductor ETFs


Selling in munis is likely forced selling from a collateral trade. Careful...

Summary: Muni selloff is forced/collateral-driven not fundamental; current dip in muni ETFs is a buying opportunity, not a true outflow.

💩 Munis are not, repeat, not MONEY GOES HOME mantra. It's already home!

Selling in munis is likely forced selling from a collateral trade - like gold since April 2nd and bonds since April 7th.

Careful...

---

Foreign holdings of municipal bonds ~3%.

$HYD $ITM $MUB $VTEB $SUB
MUB has $39.52 billion AUM.

Not usual for these to dump like they have. https://t.co/biwm1Kskvh


Not usual for these to dump like they have


Summary: PLTR expected to top and pull back from $106 before making another run to $126 months later; near-term bearish.

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 2/4/25

I’m back from a mini-vaca/long weekend with much to catch up on! On again/ Off again tariffs is clearly the theme. That, and much head-scratching and agenda-pushing around DeepSeek and NVDA/semis. You have my detailed thoughts on this - https://t.co/T4fWmdYzrU - so just going to summarize my market positioning view here: THE GAME is bullish until either the macro flows or fundamentals disrupt them.

PLTR was a nice gift to return to: PLTR hit my “$100 Q1” price target post earnings this morning. Let’s review this trade as I have been as laser focused on it since May 2023 when it broke-out > 8.94 on the biggest volume I had ever seen come into a earnings beat. Client Tim can attest, this has been front-and-center for both of us for nearly 2 yrs AND at $40 I said “$79 by EOY, $100 Q1”. And that’s exactly what has happened. Thank you options market for it showed the way - despite the fact that PLTR beat on a measly $39M, moving the market cap $39B or that, as Ross Hendricks spotted, “Stripping out stock comp from income and you have a stock trading at over 700x earnings”. Point is: I have a ‘mom-alert’ for fraud and story-stocks, and this is probably both, but for now: $106 was my pre-market point for this to top and turn until months from now when it likely makes another run into the hot-hot sun ($126).

MORE BELOW BUT TO FULLY UNLOCK UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE AT https://t.co/uD7G1gCHiG

https://t.co/nvzhw27ooN


Summary: Bullish gold, bearish USD: dollar collapse + rising yields signal loss of control; gold continues higher.

"Gold is up +19% as USD continues to crash lower. The risk of US yields continuing to rise with gold as dollar falls is a sure sign that they are losing control."

https://t.co/5Ba4a9OeBa


Summary: Bearish US equities, HY credit spreads widening, and USD weakening as tariff-driven slowdown, trapped Fed, and capital outflows to ROW compound.

HYG iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF

Yes, you know by now the Atlanta Fed Nowcast GDP for Q1 just went negative. And you are thinking: BIG SLOWDOWN!

But keep in mind it was driven by folks pulling forward imports on tariff risk so exports relatively cratered. Goods went negative; Services fell marginally. Personal income & outlays weak.

"We have priced a very aggressive forward curve now and the degree of that being realized is HOW much credit spreads rise." @Globalflows

I have written to clients I fully expect HYOAS credit spreads to rise - and laid out a case why.

This sell-off in equities is just starting as commodities roll-over hurting credit, and credit vol hits equities...

Point is: FED IS TRAPPED or at least on sidelines given sticky inflation, expectations & swaps.

ROW is cutting rates on falling global credit demand attracting capital into their markets. And China is/will be seen as more reliable AI partner for ROW. Translation: money will continue to flow abroad OUT OF US.

American businesses will put this together & start their labor shedding, which will trigger the real economic contraction that future Atlanta GDP reports will show - but this one is not it. 😉

After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (@BEA_News) and the @uscensusbureau, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real https://t.co/sXg8qrsnrn


Summary: Bearish BTC: won't significantly rise without QE, and even if QE restarts, bitcoin ultimately crashes; trapped in fiscal dominance regime.

Financial conditions are not easing. They are being reset to push down dollar, yields and oil so as to unwind equity leverage from Wall St to stimulate real growth from Main St .

All the examples of BTC troughs triggered by falling USD were in fact global central bank POLICY INTERFERENCE & LIQUIDITY INFUSIONS - led by US - to suppress dollar, yields and volatility.

Now we’re in Fiscal Dominance (& trade wars) where rising yields inflate assets & falling yields deflate them - opposite to the prior macro landscape of rate repression to keep speculation bid.

This time really is different!

My bet: $BTCUSD will not significantly rise until/unless QE is restarted.

And if/when QE is foolishly restarted, after the initial risk-on excitement, bonds will crash with stocks and bitcoin.

Bitcoin is trapped.

The move in the DXY this week was absolutely massive.

This kind of decline has only happened three other times in the last twelve years. And when we look at what it meant for Bitcoin going forward, it's pretty eye-opening...

Back in August 2015, when we saw that -4 standard https://t.co/WUwWhvX5NK


Summary: No weakness in gold or SLV; sees continued strength, especially with tariff risk.

@ThetaBurnVictim I see no weakness in either right now. Quite the opposite. And especially if Trump does the stupid Mexico/Canada 25% tariffs Saturday. Dumb & Dumber. It only makes us MORE dependent on China.

@SamanthaLaDuc @SamanthaLaDuc do you think gold and SLV sell off with the broader market? The case for both is quite strong globally imo..


Summary: Selling under the surface in NYSE, QQQ, and SPX is not done; money still going home (risk-off), near-term bounce notwithstanding.

DAY 2 OF GLOBAL MARGIN CALL would make MONDAY GAP DOWN best bet for bull bounce.

But a Sunday night CR bill passing would set up futures for a strong bounce.

Big Picture however... the SELLING UNDER THE SURFACE that I spied for clients DEC 2nd for NYSE and FEB 19th for QQQ & SPX is not done.

MONEY WILL STILL GO HOME... but slower.

@dapstats @MotherCabriniNY @MarketsPuke @bbm010 @dedkatbouns @DiMartinoBooth @dailyjobcuts @ChallengerGray @WARNTracker @MacroEdgeRes @coloradotravis @Danstringer74 @jennablan @m3_melody @JCOviedo6 @tyillc @GlobalMktObserv @PekalaLaw @PiQSuite @GratkeWealth @texasrunnerDFW @SamanthaLaDuc @spomboy ...because everyone knows global trade wars only last 3-5 business days https://t.co/hJMcQPbt1Z


Summary: Bullish oil: $20B SPR refill signals supply/war-shock hedging; sarcastic Q implies oil won't drop to $50 before govt buys.

Trump admin commits to a new bitcoin reserve - but with seized crypto so no new investment.

More importantly, Friday they announced a sizable $20B investment in the purchase of oil for the SPR. Think: supply +/or war shocks.

Q: will they wait until it's $50 to buy? ;-) $WTIC

*US ENERGY CHIEF PLANS TO SEEK $20 BILLION TO REFILL OIL RESERVE


Summary: Endorses Fitzpatrick view: hold long bonds 4yrs, long HK equity indexes on China-US deal necessity.

THIS is real...

consumer & corporate confidence is falling off a cliff. Dawn Fitzpatrick, Soros CIO

She thinks Bessent will change the SLR to allow banks to buy Treasuries that won't be punitive while relieving the basis trade leverage that HFs took on post Covid.

Not taking profits on long bond trade as trades won't go lower next 4yrs.

Also long Hong Kong equity indexes on expectations of China-US deal out of economic necessity. "Money forced into that market."

Russia dropping out of OPEC+ is the wildcard!

Bond issuance out of EU is going materially higher, so likelihood of a failed auction out of Europe in next 2yrs. UK & France most vulnerable.

@SamanthaLaDuc I love this lady, great insights (like you) https://t.co/6THoYJp33h