Summary: Bullish on China tech as tariff delay removes overhang and refocuses attention on the sector.

KWEB China internet; CQQQ China tech ETF

Tariffs delayed. Again.

We can go back to focusing on China tech again.

My Sunday Sermon

https://t.co/NXzg6cZi2R


Summary: Reaffirms Jan 14th call for higher bonds and stronger yen (lower yields), with US govt shutdown March 14th as a key catalyst.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Beware The Ides Of March

Earlier this week for clients I posted:

“My call for higher bonds & yen Jan 14th is still in play (lower yields).
US Govt shutdown March 14th will greatly influence this trade.”

While Elon & the work of DOGE are stealing the light and sound-bytes, the reality is that Congress still has the power AND the checkbook. Only way to shut that down is, literally, to shut that down!

Trump Is Fine With A US Govt Shutdown

https://t.co/2HsWdPhe7q


Summary: Bearish NVDA: tariffs will compress already-declining gross margins, back-door chip routing via Malaysia poses regulatory risk.

The end-runs being made under Trump's nose are just 🔥and why I wrote about this for clients Feb 27th before the sell-off:

DOES TRUMP WANT TO PUNISH NVIDIA?

https://t.co/DipPTjOUtN

"Trump timed his announcement today on additional 10% China tariffs on purpose - after NVDA announced earnings, as NVDA is still trying to make opaque their “sales by destination.

Assume it matters to US regulators, but it should also matter to investors, as client George @Vera_Icona_23 pointed out early & often:

"US sales relatively flat. Sales growth almost all due to "Singapore" and China."

Trump knows these tariffs are going to hurt Nvidia's precious 72% gross profit margins (that keep falling every quarter btw)."

So $NVDA does the back-door deals with Malaysia ...

Nvidia Chip Shipments to Malaysia Skyrocket to Record Highs Despite U.S. Warnings — March 2025 Update

On March 23, 2025, the Financial Times reported that U.S. officials asked Malaysia to monitor every shipment entering the country when it involves Nvidia chips. "[The U.S. is] https://t.co/n7EdMReqxR


liquidity is waning so there is no interest in bidding up. Until the next pump & dump.

Summary: Bearish BTC and MSTR on waning liquidity and no new Bitcoin reserve buying; expects downside to mid-70s pulling Nasdaq lower.

Counting on it. 😉
$BTCUSD $MSTR

Bitcoin is simply a speculation + liquidity tell. And right now, liquidity is waning so there is no interest in bidding up.

Also the newly pimped bitcoin reserve only uses seized bitcoin/crypto assets. It doesn’t buy any! No new investment allocation = Just a big show to gird up Trump’s base of bitcoin maxis.
Until the next pump & dump.

@SamanthaLaDuc Saylor’s plan to stuff taxpayers with Bitcoin he bought at highs failed. If Bitcoin moves down to mid 70s, it will start feeling the gravitational forces of Saylor’s break even at mid 60s. That can pull Nasdaq down as well,


Summary: Bearish gold; calling a top in price.

Catching a Gold Top 💃

👉👉https://t.co/Z420ieiPwn


I only had $180 from $390 rec'd short - which I cover live in my trading room daily

Summary: Author holds live TSLA short from $390 targeting $180; rhetorically challenges NVDA buy-rated analysts, implying bearish lean on NVDA.

Dang. I only had $180 from $390 rec’d short - which I cover live in my trading room daily.

$120 is fine too, but wow!

So … when do ANY of the $NVDA “solid buy” analysts re-rate it? https://t.co/94bkbxgi8D

Breaking: $JPM cuts $TSLA price target to $120. Sees ~50% downside from here.


Summary: Rotation out of NVDA/semis into value/RSP on DeepSeek; also long yen/bonds, short dollar and oil as concentration unwind continues.

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary -1/27/25

Topping is a process, not an event. And the race for AI superiority just took a dramatic turn: advantage, China. More on this in my market thoughts. For now, the key takeaway is that rotation took a big turn: out of NVDA & SEMI stocks and into RSP & value stocks on DeepSeek deep-sixing semis. This is sudden and yet part of the concentration unwind I have written about - that includes but is not limited to falling dollar, yields and oil as bonds, yen, value get bid up.

UPGARDE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE AT https://t.co/uD7G1gCHiG

https://t.co/Za5m6q5EkI


yields and oil as bonds, yen, value get bid up


Summary: Team member recommended short UNH ahead of DOJ Medicare billing investigation.

DOJ Launches Investigation Into Unitedhealth Group's Medicare Billing Practices - WSJ

Our resident doctor, @DrBenJamminK on my amazing trading team, recd short $UNH in anticipation.
🎯🔥

Get all his amazing trades before they happen - like $CADL +40% past wk!

https://t.co/5qudNqh4tM

I don’t care if this sounds naive, but where does this $663 million end up?

So how much of this massive difference goes to pharma cos vs lobbyists vs politicians… like I’m fascinated how the fraud mechanics work!


Summary: Bearish LLY; expects it to stay capped below 800 and roll over.

@rsrindy LLY will stay below 800 and rollover in due time. Patience is a virtue. Do you have that virtue?

@SamanthaLaDuc Lly just bounced off 740.


Summary: Bearish NVDA: over-hyped, customer migration accelerating, semi cycle ending; META migration away from NVDA is implicitly positive for META.

To cut reliance + costs… $META (among others) migrates away from $NVDA

And despite DEEPSEEK & QWEN & MANUS oh my, not one $NVDA analyst has a sell-rating on this over-hyped, round-tripping, sanction-running fraud.

The semi rotation started this cycle in 2015 & $NVDA will end it.

$META TESTING ITS FIRST AI TRAINING CHIP WITH $TSM TO CUT $NVDA RELIANCE & AI COSTS  👀 https://t.co/hh4u7rQOb0


$META (among others) migrates away from $NVDA

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: USD has much further to fall; bullish gold and silver as dollar weakens on external drain of UST recycling.

Geoffrey nails it:

“External Drain. Someone is not recycling their dollars acquired in trade into UST.”

He has been so ahead on this macro play for our clients! https://t.co/yLau2ZoVYV

TRANSLATION:
US Dollar has much further to fall. #Gold #Silver

HOLY SHITARSKY!
Another 5,148,338 ounces of silver deposited into the Comex vault system on Wednesday.
That makes the 3-day deposit total (Mon-Wed) over 12,500,000 ounces or 388 metric tonnes!!
Yes, that's a lot and it's unprecedented.
Big question: Where is it coming from?? https://t.co/yrmVZFOWyv


Summary: Bearish BTC: falling alongside USD as capital flows and confidence weigh on the dollar.

“No counterparty risk” can also mean hard to mitigate risks. As such, some would say “Bitcoin has no value”.

At the very least - Be Careful What You Ask For From Bitcoin - bitcoin is falling with USD as capital flows & confidence pressure the USD lower.

https://t.co/ltdTySAcUq

Bitcoin has no counterparty risk.
No company. No country. No creditor. No currency. No competitor. No culture. Not even chaos.


Summary: Bearish on NVDA going into the print/event; watching for next move after.


Summary: Gold and silver remain in an uptrend.

A short video on why Gold & Silver Are In Still Trend.

@HansCashFlow and I meet again today after the close for MACRO-TO-MICRO OPTIONS POWER HOUR. Join us!

https://t.co/J77zkI06wM


Summary: Gold and silver remain in an uptrend.


Summary: Bearish ANF; author endorses it won't reclaim $200.

"You're never gonna see Abercrombie back at $200." $ANF  ;-)))

The Big Shorts - my Top Ten version anyway ;-)

$DAL $UAL $JETS $ARM $CVNA $ANF $IRM $INTU $NVO $FDX

https://t.co/j1MkgIb2Vn


Summary: Bearish BTC: won't rise without QE, and even if QE restarts bonds/stocks/bitcoin crash after initial excitement; Bitcoin is trapped.

Financial conditions are not easing. They are being reset to push down dollar, yields and oil so as to unwind equity leverage from Wall St to stimulate real growth from Main St .

All your examples of BTC troughs triggered by falling USD were in fact POLICY INTERFERENCE & LIQUIDITY INFUSIONS.

Now we’re in Fiscal Dominance (& trade wars) where rising yields inflate assets & falling yields deflate them.

This time is different!

$BTCUSD will not rise until/unless QE is restarted.

And if/when QE is started, after the initial risk-on excitement, bonds will crash with stocks and bitcoin.

Bitcoin is trapped.

The move in the DXY this week was absolutely massive.

This kind of decline has only happened three other times in the last twelve years. And when we look at what it meant for Bitcoin going forward, it's pretty eye-opening...

Back in August 2015, when we saw that -4 standard https://t.co/WUwWhvX5NK


Summary: Expects NVDA and SMH to be defended/supported soon once Trump acts, implying near-term bounce.

What did I write to clients yday? 🤣👍����

“NVDA and SMH likely get defended soon - as soon as Trump realizes he has to. “ https://t.co/9nfUbC5Zwa

A Red Swan Disrupts US Big Tech
And what does this mean for $BABA?

https://t.co/icaqjHe5rQ


Rec'd short $WMT & $COST before earnings and after earnings and until this downturn is over.

Summary: Recommends shorting WMT and COST through earnings and until the downturn ends, citing tariff pressures on Chinese suppliers.

Rec’d short $WMT & $COST before earnings and after earnings and until this downturn is over. 👇👇

Walmart has the gall to demand Chinese suppliers to take 100% of the tariff cost which will push Chinese suppliers into bankruptcy. Now the CPC is getting involved. The CPC will no longer allow foreign companies to press Chinese companies like this...🧵

https://t.co/jJlyFldxt5


$PLTR short for clients is still looking great this morning. Down -10% on learning their Chief Accounting Officer quit FEB 12th but PLTR didn't announce publicly - just buried in their 10-K.

Summary: Holds PLTR short on CAO departure disclosure; bullish on undervalued China equities as US money rotates out of overvalued US stocks.

$PLTR short for clients is still looking great this morning. Down -10% on learning their Chief Accounting Officer quit FEB 12th but PLTR didn’t announce publicly - just buried in their 10-K. 😏

Symptom of US overvalued stocks gonna make my case for me as money rotates into undervalued China plays.

😳

i guess I don't suck at this.

$PLTR $126 back to $106 in a NY minute.


it's going to be a BIG rotation in money flow that the market doesn't see yet

Summary: Bullish China tech/KWEB/BABA on DeepSeek-driven rotation; bearish MAG7 concentration into year-end.

From the tippy top in 2021 to the bottom in 2024, I have guided clients through every twist and turn with surprising precision.

When everyone was getting excited in October that “this was the big one“ I said not yet. Ditto in December. Back then I said wait until ~March.

This recent bounce in Chinese ADRs specifically China Tech started early with DEEPSEEK bombshell, and it’s going to be a BIG rotation in money flow that the market doesn’t see yet.

But also headwind to the CONCENTRATION RISK that is MAG7 toward rest of year. $KWEB $BABA

Parabola risk is here.

https://t.co/1zLvpmFfut

What a helluva week for China tech! Hang Seng Tech Index up another 5.56% on Friday 2/14.��� $KWEB $KTEC $CWEB

Almost all major components post gains larger than the index led by AI-related names:

$BABA +6.3%
$TCEHY +7.4%
$JD +7.6%
$MPNGF +6.4%
$XIACF +7.3%
$BILI +14.9%‼
$KUASF https://t.co/UXVOyVRMEI


This recent bounce in Chinese ADRs specifically China Tech started early with DEEPSEEK bombshell, and it's going to be a BIG rotation in money flow that the market doesn't see yet


Investment into the 'uninvestible' is underway. Market, and especially MAG7 bulls, just don't see it yet.

Summary: Bullish China tech / BABA on foreign investment inflows and AI model traction; bearish MAG7 which hasn't priced the rotation yet.

KWEB China internet tech; CQQQ China tech ETF

and THIS...

China to fully eliminate foreign investment restrictions in manufacturing sector
- via mktnews

Investment into the "uninvestible" is underway.

Market, and especially MAG7 bulls, just don't see it yet.

Led by CHINA TECH outperforming US.

DOWNLOAD COUNT FOR ALIBABA'S TONGYI QIANWEN OPEN-SOURCE MODEL HAS SURPASSED 200 MILLION - via MKTnews

$BABA


Summary: USD and US equities falling together as capital repatriates; prior long-equity rationale (USD real value decline) has broken down; trade is now long real money vs USD.

the trade is all about value of USD against “real money”

The real value of USD falling versus nominal price rising was a key reason to be long US equities.

Now, nominal price of USD is falling WITH equities as MONEY GOES HOME.

Since Jan 2024 to today,

SPY +21% total return
QQQ +19%
IWM +4%
HYG +10%
TLT -4%

Vs.
Gold +47%
BTC +95%

Really not complicated what is going on here.
We just spend way too much energy and time on stocks and bonds when the trade is all about value of USD against “real money”


the trade is all about value of USD against "real money"


Summary: Oil short still active; ANF and AAPL cited alongside as shorts still working.

USO United States Oil Fund tracks WTI crude

Oil Short Still Working With $ANF + $AAPL

#WTIC real test is coming...

https://t.co/G7vpkHWpOv


Summary: Bearish oil in 2025; Saudi $50/bbl warning validates prior call, reinforced by yen carry trade risk.

Such a good reminder: Saudi warning Russia of $50 crude in 2025 dovetails with 2 important calls I made for clients:

1. Bearish oil this year - part of my 2025 top predictions.

2. Falling oil & yields can trigger Yen Carry Trade Part 2 - as I detailed Jan 11th:

https://t.co/WEfgNKKLhb

Idk this account nor do I know if what he’s saying is legit, but I do know that this exact scenario is a REAL risk and I’ve been warning about it for over a year now.

@BurggrabenH
#Oil https://t.co/7yTMrGX9HQ


I expected $NVDA to pull down into $106~ before most likely getting defended next week and moving higher into 124 with overshoot to 139 (best bullish case I've got before rejection)

Summary: Expects NVDA to dip to ~$106, get defended, then rally to $124 with possible overshoot to $139 before rejection.

"I highlighted $NVDA Monday morning in my live trading room. PRO subs can go review: Min 23.56 - 25.22.

I literally said I expected $NVDA to pull down into $106~ before most likely getting defended next week and moving higher into 124 with overshoot to 139 (best bullish case I’ve got before rejection)."

And no, it wasn't because of option flow.
https://t.co/GryucBTPQh


Summary: USD set to fall further vs EUR/CAD/JPY/CNY; gold and silver already leading the trade.

DXY - If I’m reading these macro tea leaves correctly, USD is about to fall further as euro, cad, yen, yuan rise.

What's the trade?

[Gold & Silver smelled it already.]

Gold Is Still Doing Awesome 🤩

Join us for more nuggets tomorrow after the close - with @HansCashFlow

https://t.co/3fIO4iedJZ


Summary: Capital rotating out of US assets into gold and EU debt as China sells USTs.

MONEY GOES HOME™

And chases gold & EU  debt.

#ChinaSellsUST https://t.co/HXS9rJ8VWB


Summary: Stay long China Tech; endorses JPM's view to keep China Tech exposure.

KWEB China internet tech ETF; CQQQ China tech ETF

Sell the rip.
Stay long China.

How times change, when changes time.
😉😉

JPM: We like more the tactical buy the dip in the US, but with a sell the rally mentality. We keep China Tech but we would tactically unwind the short Nasdaq side.


Some call it round-tripping. Others Keiretsu. Both are a closed loop. One is a circle jerk. FRAUD ALWAYS MARKS A TOP

Summary: Bearish CRWV; author alleges its business model is fraudulent round-tripping/Keiretsu and that fraud marks a top.

CoreWeave deep-thoughts:
https://t.co/zc7wcnAgDQ

Playahs:
$NVDA
#Magnetar
$CRWV
#OpenAI
#Softbank
$MSFT

My $.02s:
Some call it round-tripping. Others Keiretsu.

Both are a closed loop.
One is a circle jerk.

I simply called it like I saw it Sept 2023

👉FRAUD ALWAYS MARKS A TOP

https://t.co/0mxJs2N7mV

Totally made-up thought experiment:

Could three traders with no tech background convince Wall Street they're an AI tech company worth roughly twice as much as:

Snapchat, Twilio, Zillow, and WiseTech

...by renting NVIDIA GPUs?

What if they rented GPUs primarily to clients


Summary: Gold rising in anticipation of debt-limit concerns.

Debt limit is closer than we think & Gold isn't taking any chances...

https://t.co/AeLf8Fy5H0


Summary: Bullish GLD/SLV on technical breakouts + macro tailwinds; long BABA/China tech on DeepSeek disruption; warns of rotation risk to US tech.

Samantha’s Live Trading Room Summary - 1/30/25

AI euphoria is still in the house. I wrote my detailed thoughts on what to look for later when everyone is looking for the same door: THIS IS THE MANHATTEN PROJECT 2.0

All eyes on AAPL tonight and QRA Monday with China reopening on the 5th, then NFP next Friday. Never boring!!

IMPORTANT: WEDNESDAY’S MACRO-TO-MICRO OPTIONS POWER HOUR HAS BEEN RESCHEDULED TO TODAY AT THE CLOSE!

Let’s review some of my recent themes:

GOLD! Great trade so far:

GLD: Technical breakout I anticipated a month ago (Jan 6th), plus weekly gap up is still very bullish.

SLV: Technical breakout I added last week based on how silver lags gold. AEM + AGI as my preferred miners are pushing nicely higher.

Chinese New Year: According to The World Gold Council, there is a correlation between the Lunar New Year and higher gold prices. Makes sense!

Macro: Falling dollar and yields is bullish precious metals, but specifically I made a bet Jan 14th that rising US bonds and yen would pull gold higher with it.

Tariffs: Expected Trump tariffs causing London to move/deliver gold & rumors there’s too little of it. This has put a bid on spot as well.

DBA: I mentioned last month that rising food prices/soft commodities would pull SLV higher with it. See Eggs, Cocoa, Beef and now Lettuce!

CHINA! Great trade so far:

BABA was discussed last week before all the Deepseek market drama which revealed BABA had a DeepSeek equivalent that may even perform better.

China Tech is now on radar for many US investors given the disruption China just made with a better, faster, cheaper product in DeepSeek.

The market is closed in China until Feb 4th, so take care chasing into that event.

The China Wall - my monthly chart of resistance I showcased yday - will likely show a nice move above next week. Now, price action has to see follow-through/not break back below.

The danger is to US tech stocks should money rotate STRONGLY into China tech & ROW.

IGV & IPO: Strong sector rotation so far:
...
Trend Long Updates:
...
Chase/Earnings Review:
...
UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE AT https://t.co/uD7G1gCHiG 💃

https://t.co/HzgCvwnnM1


Technical breakout I added last week based on how silver lags gold


AEM + AGI as my preferred miners are pushing nicely higher


BABA was discussed last week before all the Deepseek market drama which revealed BABA had a DeepSeek equivalent that may even perform better


China Tech is now on radar for many US investors given the disruption China just made with a better, faster, cheaper product in DeepSeek


rising food prices/soft commodities would pull SLV higher with it


Summary: Short IRM; government inefficiency (paper-based records mining) signals vulnerability to digitization/disruption.

Federal employee retirements are processed using paper, by hand, in an old limestone mine in Pennsylvania.  700+ mine workers operate 230 feet underground to process ~10,000 applications per month, which are stored in manila envelopes and cardboard boxes.  The retirement process https://t.co/dXCTgpAWLs


Summary: Long AEM, AGI, WPM — top recommended gold miners to clients for months, two at blue-sky highs.

@HitDaWallAgain BOE instability and/or US REPATRIATION are best bets.

$AEM, $AGI, $WPM are my best recd miners  to clients for many months. They are doing great with 2 in blue skies.

@SamanthaLaDuc Paper gold funds get bailed out by governments, otherwise contagion spreads to other ETFs. I don't think this is the US buying, i think it's holders repatriating on US instability, tarrif rumors, BOE instability (hell, just generally British instability), and a coordinated run by


Summary: Bullish China tech near-term; sees institutional rotation into Chinese stocks, not just a bounce, timing from money flow and Fed liquidity signals.

I focus on money flow (institutions’ positioning, options, Fed liquidity, etc), and then match it against MOTIVATIONS. 👇

Here’s why we are close to a rotation to Chinese stocks  and not just for a bounce.

I timed the entirety of the bounce in October - bottom and top  - and again in Dec warning it ‘wasn’t the big one - wait until March’. We are getting closer.

#ChinaTech

@SamanthaLaDuc Trump or not, there’a a serious case for holding China tech in portfolio from now on, at least as far as I’m concerned.


Summary: Short SPOT, NFLX, PLTR as new rollover trades; NDX100 broadly just starting to roll over.

$SBUX from 110 to 75 was one of my newest 'big shorts' for clients...so was $SPOT (just starting) & $NFLX (just starting) & $PLTR (just starting)...

That's the crazy thing: a LOT of NDX100 is JUST STARTING to roll over.

GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS

https://t.co/UsjO1AvXq6


Summary: Bearish crude oil below $67; expects further downside even ahead of OPEC+ supply restart, part of broader oil/yields/equities down thesis since Feb 19.

As WTIC breaks $67, I still see lower... even before OPEC+ long-delayed supply restart

It also goes with my "oil dumping with yields and equities" since Feb 19th. https://t.co/mCkGcPc8gz

I won't be invited to Vienna anyway... https://t.co/PtxKySACVn


Summary: NVDA defended into 2/26 earnings but faces binary risk afterward depending on Trump's stance on Singapore/China sales.

Kakashiii has been so diligent, patient & right.
🎩

$NVDA likely gets defended into earnings 2/26, but then Trump either approves the grift - "spilt milk" - or says no more.

#SingaporeSales https://t.co/w62QK04Taq

Singapore x Nvidia - A Billing Location for Chinese Entities? A Violation of CHIPS Act?

If you recall, the 10-Q filing last week revealed that it obtained $2.7 billion, or 15 percent of its $18 billion revenue for the quarter from Singapore.

The comparison is even more stark https://t.co/qBOZ0pH8ij


Summary: Author discloses a short position in NFLX.

Short-Term Jump Risk / Macro-To-Micro Options Power Hour / Mar 26, 2025

I talk about a $NFLX short & answer the question:
"Are we really at risk of a short squeeze in markets? NO"

@HansCashFlow talks about portfolio protection.

https://t.co/4LUKs6PvjR


Summary: Bearish BTC near-term; expects a proper washout/selloff before any meaningful recovery.

THAT was predictable. In fact I did in my #LiveTradingRoom Friday! 🫰

INFLATION has to escape somewhere ... Bitcoin is an inflation absorber. As Geoffrey @GraphCall has explained many times:

"#BTC is non-inflationary liquidity decoy to absorb this excessive liquidity without creating inflation. If the liquidity was going into food and metals, this would create inflation with 2nd & 3rd consequences."
https://t.co/hiilgdd3bS

So too are precious metals.
Gold fell after Tariffs were announced WITH GOLD/SILVER MARGIN INCREASES. They also serve as a collateral trade in a GLOBAL MARGIN CALL. Now bitcoin sells-off on liquidity crunch.

We need a proper washout of bitcoin before we really get to see what this market is made of 😉⏳

JUST IN: $200,000,000 liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the past 60 minutes.


Summary: Bottom-fishing trend-reversal long setups in MMM and GLW for clients.

Want to see what I look for in bottom-fishing TREND reversal longs for clients?

👉 $MMM & $GLW

Boring But Profitable!
https://t.co/M47KqSaOlu


I bet the market, because it's so whacked, that it will get bought hard after this selling and make "One More MAG7 High"

Summary: Expects a hard bounce after selling to produce one more MAG7 high, despite viewing overall rally as fake/sucker's rally.

Yup, Semis clobbered. Market cared!!

Here’s the irony:
I bet the market, because it’s so whacked, that it will get bought hard after this selling and make “One More MAG7 High”.

Because the market is fake and price discovery is not really possible for more than a few weeks.

The disruption, however, is real. And the risk China represents.

But the market mindset is  still “CONSENSUS: RISK ASSETS RALLY HARD” which is why I mocked it in my market thoughts post this weekend.

Which is why last Wednesday I said it felt like a sucker’s rally. Didn’t know DeepSeek would be giving the sucker’s punch.

But that’s why we say:
Risk Happens Fast!

THAT’s called Trader’s Instinct:

“I feel this is a Sucker’s Rally”

Minute 15:18-17:00 - from last Wed’s Macro-To-Micro OPTIONS Power Hour 😉

https://t.co/DO2FgBGa1L


Summary: Long NVDA as a national security asset immune to DeepSeek fallout; short SMCI as likely scapegoat.

If I were a betting woman…

I would bet on  $NVDA

1. Because Nvidia is a national security interest now. #DeepSeek

2. And the market’s fortunes, and therefore the US economy’s, is dependent on this Ponzi Shell game continuing.

3. $SMCI on the other hand can easily be made scapegoat with $NVDA fanning indignation. 😈

🚨STOCK NEWS:  $NVDA

• The FBI and White House are investigating DeepSeek's use of Singapore intermediaries for Nvidia chips, crucial for Nvidia's supply chain to China.

** Singapore has been a gateway for Nvidia GPUs into China, showing its importance in tech trade.


$NFLX is priced to perfection. Both are overvalued & due a deeper correction IMO

Summary: Both NFLX and SPOT overvalued and due a deeper correction; bearish on both amid tariff/services risks.

@RealJohnGaltFla $NFLX is priced to perfection.

$SPOT is also defended as recession-proof and yet, is the poster child of financialization.

Both are overvalued & due a deeper correction IMO

@SamanthaLaDuc That's the nuke on us Samantha.

What happens when counter-tariffs hit our services and production industries like Hollywood.


$SPOT is also defended as recession-proof and yet, is the poster child of financialization. Both are overvalued & due a deeper correction IMO


Summary: Bullish China equities; record HK inflows fuel parabolic upside continuation in KWEB, FXI, and Shanghai Composite.

China still bid. Parabola Potential continues.

Join me live as we set up & keep up with this massively profitable rotation.

https://t.co/FPSfC9UYXB

$KWEB $FXI #HCI $SSEC

🇨🇳➡🇭🇰 Chinese mainland investors bought HK$22.4 billion worth of Hong Kong stocks on Tuesday, the biggest daily inflow since early 2021 and the fourth largest on record.
The strong inflows into HK's equities have reduced the premium between onshore and Hong Kong shares to around https://t.co/oB5ItQ288r


Summary: Ongoing macro basket: long 10Y bonds, yen, gold, and silver on expected USD decline as EUR/CAD/JPY/CNY rise.

👇👇👇

My rec’d macro trade since JAN 14th: higher 10Y bonds + yen. Gold before that + silver last week. See how I saw this basket trade in the video review from last Wed Macro-to-Micro Options Power Hour. 💃

https://t.co/UMkewSnrdL

DXY - If I’m reading these macro tea leaves correctly, USD is about to fall further as euro, cad, yen, yuan rise.

What's the trade?

[Gold & Silver smelled it already.]


SI=F COMEX silver futures on Yahoo Finance


Summary: Parabolic upside potential into March for China-linked ETFs and Alibaba; recommends keeping a runner.

I did say “PARABOLA” potential is HIGH into March… that, and “Keep A Runner”!

From my live trading room summaries last week. JOIN US 😉😊💃👍🤑

#China $KWEB $FXI $BABA $HSEC https://t.co/Gm4P602eI8

🇭🇰📈HANG SENG TECH INDEX RISES OVER 2%, HANG SENG INDEX UP MORE THAN 1.3%.
#CHINA $HSI $KWEB $FXI $HXC $DRAG $YINN $YANG #TENCENT $TCEHY
https://t.co/Yp1KFyd1PW https://t.co/5tt90qpqnL


Summary: High-conviction short on airlines sector via puts; ongoing theme from start of year.

Clients know this is one of my SECTOR THEMES SHORT from start of the year.
I rec'd March & June puts.
High conviction trade. 👍👍👍
#Airlines

Airliners are crashing post market
$UAL $DAL $JETS


Summary: Active swing long BABA since Jan; expects durable rally in Chinese ADRs from March.

Since last year - even with catching the October AND December surprise, I said I didn’t expect a durable rally in Chinese ADRs until March.

$BABA is front-running that hard (already active swing long this Jan) - on AI announcements similar to DeepSeek.

https://t.co/CqGl0TM4Gj

Article is further support 😉

Could China stocks be the ultimate Trump trade? Our non-consensus view.
https://t.co/k6XhP6Y6NN


Summary: Bearish NVDA: Trump's China tariffs will compress 72% GP margins and force pullback on Singapore/China-routed sales.

CLIENTS KNOW: I already expected THIS selloff into Friday morning & gave them exact levels for $NVDA, $QQQ, $SPX etc.

As for the Trump Tariffs...
NOTICE HE ANNOUNCED THEM POST-NVDA EARNINGS...

He announced EXTRA 10% tariffs this morning.
then, China pushes back.
Trump doubles them to 20%!

Why? TO PUNISH $NVDA!

These tariffs are going to hurt Nvidia's precious 72% GP margins & FORCE them to pull back on 'Singapore Sales'.

Think about it - and client @Vera_Icona_23 pointed it out early & often:

"US sales relatively flat. Sales growth almost all due to "Singapore" and China."

JOIN ME LIVE: https://t.co/uD7G1gCHiG
GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS.

Aaaand since just this morning, Trump-proclaimed tariffs on China has doubled to 20%!

AFTER...

CHINA'S COMMERCE MINISTRY: CHARGING FEES ON CHINESE SHIPS ENTERING U.S. PORTS WOULD DISRUPT GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS, BACKFIRE ON U.S. ECONOMY, EMPLOYMENT - XINHUA

CHINA WARNS THAT


Summary: Holding directional puts on airline basket (DAL, UAL, AAL, JETS); targets ~$43 on DAL before bottoming; high-conviction short on airlines.

Tis true. High conviction - "health, war, growth scare".

I rec'd MAR & JUN directional puts - early & often.

The March $57.50P are up 12X. I have ~$43 until we bottom $DAL. I call this basket trading ;-)

$JETS $UAL $AAL

@unusual_whales @SamanthaLaDuc was way ahead of this. Has been saying be short airlines since January because they were way extended. Some traders have great/curious timing and some traders are just good.


Summary: Exited NVDA long at $136; now expects NVDA to fall back to $96 by Q3, with further downside later.

💃👌🫶

I got my $136 by earnings from $96 - as repeated early/OFTEN. $NVDA

I am out!

And expect $96 again by Q3. Lower later. 😉

https://t.co/1gCq5IJcSL

@LaDucTrading @SamanthaLaDuc Michael Burry's Scion Asset Management 13F filing, today. No reason for panic, only 49% of his portfolio is now in $NVDA puts. Not even 50%! Clearly a lack of conviction. https://t.co/knv38fy1ar


$XLE $XOM long was exactly what I rec'd to clients Monday

Summary: Holds live long positions in XLE, XOM, GLD, GDX; added protection on gold longs this morning.

Actually, $XLE $XOM long was exactly what I rec’d to clients Monday as $OVX came down with $VIX 😉

And this morning, I rec’d protection on $GLD $GDX longs. 😉😉

#LiveTradingRoom

While everyone is looking at tech and index drawdown, XLE is up +4% this week, with WTI/Brent +2-3 to $64/67 respectively.

Gold and oil up, rates and equities selling off.

Stagflation > Recession narrative this wk.


Summary: Inflation spike incoming as China-US trade shutdown hits supply chains; yields rising with it.

Market isn't pricing a supply-shut-down in.

Media hasn't talked about shortages, yet.

By the time consumers race to the store to hoard toilet paper again, inflation will be spiking with yields. They won't wait this time.

The White House has put itself and the country in a bad situation but doesn’t realize it yet.

Around April 10th China to USA trade shut down.

It takes ~30 days for containers to go from China to LA.

45 to Houston by sea, 45 to Chicago by train.

55 to New York by sea.

That https://t.co/8vnGDMWCpt


Summary: Bearish BTC and MSTR; liquidity waning removes bid, endorses parent's mid-70s gravitational pull thesis.

Counting on it. 😉
$BTCUSD $MSTR

For me, bitcoin is simply a speculation and liquidity tell. Right now, liquidity is waning so there is no interest in bidding this up.

And the newly pimped bitcoin reserve only uses seized bitcoin/crypto assets. It doesn’t buy any - no new investment allocation.

@SamanthaLaDuc Saylor’s plan to stuff taxpayers with Bitcoin he bought at highs failed. If Bitcoin moves down to mid 70s, it will start feeling the gravitational forces of Saylor’s break even at mid 60s. That can pull Nasdaq down as well,


Summary: Currency swaps recycling dollars amid debasement/de-dollarization/devaluation pressures drives demand for gold.

I’m starting to wonder if these swaps - Argentina 2x now; South Korea next - is less a bail-out for them and more a bail-in for US to recycle dollars as falling demand from debasement, de-dollarizarion & devaluation bids Gold

S. KOREA SEEKS ARGENTINA-STYLE CURRENCY SWAP WITH US: MUNHWA


Summary: Held long positions in Chinese equities and ETFs with conviction on SSEC breakout momentum continuing.

Patience I said. Much patience.
$BIDU $BABA $JD $KWEB $FXI
Very long & strong for weeks as the $SSEC was firmly in breakout mode before the US stocks triggered.

GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS 💃 https://t.co/rIlZRenTAV


$APO "can offer credit solutions to the S&P500 behemoths -- and on better terms than traditional bank lenders."

Summary: Bullish on APO and XLF; Apollo's competitive advantage in credit over traditional banks seen as a durable positive.

$APO “can offer credit solutions to the S&P500 behemoths -- and on better terms than traditional bank lenders.” $XLF

If you are looking for something to listen to, highly recommend you listen to this podcast episode.

Really high level overview:

- Apollo owns the insurance company, Athene, which gives Apollo a lot of long-term capital to invest (Athene sells annuities products, with https://t.co/a5ykcR47xN


$APO "can offer credit solutions to the S&P500 behemoths -- and on better terms than traditional bank lenders." $XLF


Summary: Author is actively running a short on TSLA live this morning, describing it as working.

It was fun to chase short $ORCL & long $TSLA, which triggered perfectly Thurs morning live in my trading room - before I knew Musk spent $1B in the open market to buy shares which made him $17B richer - a 1,600% 1day ROI🤣

And live this am we did it again!
$TSLA short chase working ;-)


Summary: Bullish physical gold and silver as China's top silver refiner cuts output 17% amid surging demand; dollar funding squeeze looms, bearish USD.

This is fascinating actually -

So China’s largest silver refiner has throttled back output (17%  of globally refined silver so not a small amount) - just as demand balloons.

Perception (paper) meets Reality (physical) - just as US credit market wobbles & USD flexes from the metal squeeze that can trigger a dollar FUNDING squeeze.

👉🔥⚠ I wrote about THIS exactly:
https://t.co/L6g4a7j67d

This morning: Trump walks back tariffs on mining just in time? Or we enter that uncomfortable period where:

METAL WARS ARE CAPITAL WARS

It is going to be physical metals liquidity vs USD liquidity. Let’s see which runs out first.

They can print U.S. dollars but they cannot print physical #Gold and #Silver.


China's largest silver refiner has throttled back output (17% of globally refined silver so not a small amount) - just as demand balloons


Summary: Long gold/metals as entrenched-inflation proxy on dedollarization/demand/supply; skeptical of BTC and oil; crack-up boom thesis, not secular bull.

My Sunday Sermon last week:

"I wanted to point out something that I think folks miss - because they deeply disagree:

I DO NOT see oil spike as reason for next inflation wave - like SO MANY fear.

I see METALS: Gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum…

And THIS isn’t a “commodity super cycle” with oil. No.
There is actually falling global oil demand, but the market doesn’t see it yet

Gold is now the purist form of an inflation proxy WITH exploding demand against limited supply ALL wrapped neatly against the backdrop of growing geopolitical stress AND dollar dedollarization, devaluation & debasement.

Also I believe BTC’s purpose as inflation off-ramp will not fix this. BTC is only as strong as NDX is strong + as a LIQUIDITY tell - from the MONEY BUBBLE that Fed/Treasury/White House created to keep the MONETARY ILLUSION in tact.

Story stocks can continue to rise with financialization, policy intervention, liquidity and dollar falling. AI hope is real but manic - ala 2000. Productivity gains will come but MUCH later.

Focus on gold is the tell:
Inflation is entrenched.
Fiscal Dominance is here.

Crack-up BOOM is not the same thing as a “secular bull market”. Fed cuts & Treasury T-bill issuance & White House stimulus only make the boom-bust worse, as “growing our way out of debt” will now trigger ever more inflation.

No matter what happens to NDX & BTC, there will be no deflation for non-asset holders which are the MAJORITY of humans on this planet!

I know we are taught everywhere in this soul-corrupting political & social media world: “Greed is Good”.

But it’s not really. It’s a sin actually. What isn’t is treating capital as if it is not disposable and living within our means. Good luck & God bless everyone."

In conversation with @MacroEdgeRes, we discuss weakening labor data, sticky inflation & dollar devaluation as backdrop to gold’s surge & AI-fueled melt-ups, and how fiscal dominance & credit cracks can turn this boom into a “recession at all-time highs.

https://t.co/ZkBcChiCDF


I see METALS: Gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum…


I rec'd $WPM $AEM $AGI to clients as swing longs in April 2024 and they haven't done anything wrong to remove them

Summary: Still holding WPM, AEM, AGI as swing longs; no reason to remove them.

I rec’d $WPM $AEM $AGI to clients as swing longs in April 2024 and they haven’t done anything wrong to remove them. We talked about this on your show a year ago!


Summary: Trade balance deterioration is bullish for Gold.

@Andrea_Texas_82 @GraphCall nice share Andrea on trade balance going the wrong way. It is however very good for Gold.

@SamanthaLaDuc Samantha, nobody is talking about the lousy balance of trade statistics that have just been released!

https://t.co/u2gOz1pWep


Summary: Bullish physical silver on 360:1 paper-to-physical ratio squeeze thesis; bearish on paper silver.

Wow, that's a chart:
Ratio of paper silver to physical silver: 360:1

Understanding the Current Silver Squeeze
h/t @TheBubbleBubble

https://t.co/ju17jN4aXU

BTW, this is great from physical metals. Not so much paper. Esp if #SilverThursday starts to trend. https://t.co/iUiqUmzJln


Summary: Long gold on fiscal dominance, de-dollarization, debasement, inflation, and CB demand; Bitcoin fails as a macro hedge.

Gold’s Perfect Storm Is Here
$GLD $BTCUSD $DXY

Gold’s breakout is a macro story driven by fiscal dominance, de-dollarization, debasement, inflation and global central bank demand — and why Bitcoin isn’t the hedge many think.

https://t.co/1jrEaA5pds


Summary: Holds and recommends long NEM and gold/silver miners; trend longs continuing to shine.

@Andrea_Texas_82 @TheBubbleBubble long and strong. I review rec'd swing long $NEM & miners daily for clients. Gold & Silver trend longs continue to shine.

🚀 What an incredible year for $NEM shareholders – smashing 75% returns! 📈💰

Mining’s that underrated sector with skimpy analyst coverage, hiding epic bargains just waiting to be unearthed. 💎 @TheBubbleBubble @SamanthaLaDuc, what’s your take on gold miners like Newmont right https://t.co/AuSeNPxee9


Summary: Shutdown-driven unemployment spike pulls recession risk forward: bearish gold, bullish bonds, with AI animal spirits driving recession-into-ATH paradox.

If true, the only reason for Gold to fall and Bonds to rise.

For furloughs that turn into firings and a big unemployment spike that triggers “recession risk pulled forward” (by EOY) while AI keeps the animal spirits chasing so we also get…

RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS™

President Trump on Government Shutdown

“Because of the shutdown, which I think they made a big mistake, we’re able to take out billions and billions of dollars of waste, fraud, and abuse.

And they’ve handed it, you know, on a silver platter.”

Reporter: “How many permanent https://t.co/pMRbzuesCX


Summary: MSFT cited as key bullish tell; swing long themes working across the board.

6/6 & 6/9 /2025 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades

"While so many are expecting a melt-up, I present a few names that have already melted up - stalking for chase shorts.

And a few that still are… MSFT as biggest tell and why.

Plus updates on my swing long themes that are working across the board!!!"

https://t.co/Iy8EDLGufW


Summary: Long gold as the real macro hedge driven by structural China-led shift; bearish Bitcoin as Western hype.

Why Gold, Not Bitcoin, Is The Real Hedge
$GLD $BTCUSD $DXY

Gold’s outperformance over stocks and Bitcoin past 3 years isn’t a fluke. It’s the result of a structural macro shift driven by China, while Western crypto hype only delays the dollar’s decline. https://t.co/0sUp0kAWt2

---

Full interview can be found on our YouTube channel:
https://t.co/1jrEaA5X30


Summary: Expects QQQ to fill the gap at 568.54 after hitting the 559 short target; implied near-term upside from here.

$GOOGL Judge in antitrust case rules that Google will have to share information with competitors in online search but won't have to sell Chrome division.

That's gonna help $QQQ fill that gap down at 568.54 after tagging my $559 short price target given to clients/live last Wed.


Summary: Holding long uranium/nuclear energy basket as diversifier with alpha; trend still en fuego.

Uranium and nuclear energy plays are so old they’re new!

And being/staying long and strong has rewarded the patient value investors, while helping to diversify portfolios away from the passive & tech-focused concentration risk- all without sacrificing the alpha.

$CCJ $URA $FLR $SMR $PWR $BWXT

(link below!)

---

It’s So Old It’s New

URANIUM TREND IS EN FUEGO

$CCJ $URA $FLR $SMR $PWR $BWXT

https://t.co/vcdXUtAiq4


Summary: Short QQQ triggered at 607.33 on weakening breadth and intraday selling signals; expects continued pullback.

Caught that market dump LIVE with QQQ short trigger 607.33 - after doing a whole rant about how it was time for a pullback from weakening breadth & start of some intraday selling under the surface. Plus my $VIX $VXN analysis with #USD $EURUSD... FX, Rate & Equity vol on watch!

🎙 Live Trading Room is on now with @SamanthaLaDuc reviewing all the morning's action & sharing her Macro-to-Micro analysis live for members
Join CLUB by LaDucTrading for full access
Sign up to Get the trade before it happens
https://t.co/tQUEmsMLpP

#optionstrading https://t.co/Tb04U8HcCx


Summary: Bullish gold on any dip; short-term pullback and USD strength dismissed, big picture remains long.

Short-term pullback in gold doesn't worry me.
US dollar exceptionalism doesn't worry me.

Soooo many reasons for gold to get bought on any dip. Big picture, GOLD is all bulled-up.

Will yields follow?? 🤔
@HansCashFlow $GLD $XAUUSD https://t.co/zRNsQ4X2dh


Gold is outperforming SPY & BTC over a 3Y time horizon. Gold is no longer viewed as a lost asset class or speculative asset... but an off-ramp for inflation; a debasement hedge; a hard asset used in goods production; a central bank reserve asset; AND an under-owned wealth tool.

Summary: Bullish gold as inflation hedge, debasement hedge, hard asset, CB reserve, and under-owned wealth tool outperforming SPY and BTC.


Summary: Bullish NVDA; author characterizes its earnings management as a sophisticated beat-and-raise machine despite H20 ban headwinds.

"beautifully sophisticated operation to keep the beat-and-raise game alive." $NVDA

Let’s talk about the elephant in the room—again.

The H20 export was basically banned in the first week of April. Since then, Nvidia hasn’t had a real product to offer chinese for their data centers. Nvidia even admitted they lost around $8 billion in H20 revenue in Q2 alone. https://t.co/b1I39zg6dX


EXTEND & PRETEND about to hit a wall… $XLF $KRE

Summary: Bearish regional banks and financials: CRE loan stress + rising NPLs mirror S&L crisis patterns; extend-and-pretend ending.

EXTEND & PRETEND about to hit a wall…

“Studies suggest a 1% increase in non-performing loan ratios can decrease GDP growth by 0.1%, creating vicious cycles where economic weakness worsens credit quality. The concentration of regional bank problems in CRE mirrors historical patterns from the S&L crisis of the 1980s, when similar interest rate and real estate pressures caused widespread failures.”

$XLF $KRE

🦔 Regional banks are facing a perfect storm of credit problems, with commercial real estate loans comprising 44% of their portfolios versus just 13% for large banks. Office loan delinquencies have hit 10.4%, approaching 2008 crisis levels, while over $1 trillion in CRE loans https://t.co/EHcrsrCakc


Summary: Pair trade: long China names (BABA/BIDU/KWEB/FXI/JD) vs short NVDA; warns to protect into end of month.

China / $NVDA Pair Trade & Time To Protect

Clients know: Trading $BABA $BIDU $KWEB $FXI and $JD while watching downside risk in $NVDA has been a phenomenal 'pair trade'.

Chaulk it up to 'trader's instinct' but I am also warning it's time to protect into EOM.

JOIN US LIVE https://t.co/ja7XQdeRrv


$NEM - a swing long rec'd has been crushing it for months

Summary: Long precious metals complex — NEM highlighted as a crushing swing trade; bullish on gold/silver supply constraint thesis across miners and streamers.

$NEM - a swing long rec’d has been crushing it for months

$B $XAGUSD $WPM $FNV $AEM $GDX

Now that gold supply will be constrained from US treasury confiscation … what’s your  trade in precious metals?

🧵 Newmont, the world's largest gold producer, achieved a record-breaking all-in sustaining cost (AISC) margin of $1,727 per ounce of gold produced last quarter, up 120% (!) versus Q2 2024.
Over the last four quarters, Newmont's core business has become a huge cash cow. Now, https://t.co/QqrEjISZZx


SLV iShares Silver Trust; XAGUSD is spot silver


Summary: Pre-existing bullish chart thesis on both BTC and ETH; cautions that the China crypto rumor driving the afterhours spike is unverified.

As highlighted in yday’s market thoughts: bullish Bitcoin & Ethereum charts...

Both are screaming higher afterhours on this FinTwit “news”:

CHINA ALLOWS OWNERSHIP OF BITCOIN & CRYPTO AGAIN

But I can find NO PROOF and NO SOURCE for this news. So careful.

https://t.co/aT2kh3tYXV


Summary: Bullish gold: China's dominant inventory position means it now controls gold pricing, framing it as a structural upward driver.

China has the most in gold AND oil inventories.

They aren't just the 'marginal buyer' anymore.

They control the price.
Let's call it...
THE CHINA COLLAR™

Shanghai gold inventories at RECORD highs.

Goldman estimates China buying 10x more gold than officially reported.

55 tonnes in Oct ’24 alone.

The quietest, biggest gold squeeze on earth is happening right now. https://t.co/txCTcj3hl1


Summary: Remains short crude oil targeting continuation of decline toward $40 range; tactical long to ~$70 already given, but primary trend stays short.

I'm no bro, but...
Those who follow closely & clients for sure know  I made the call with crude oil at $85 LAST APRIL 2024 that it would fall into the $60-$40 range by end of 2025. We hit $56, so it’s working phenomenally, thank you very much.

Big picture: I am short on oil (#NotDone), but I also gave clients a tactical trade long 2 wks ago for crude to travel higher into 70 before it rolls over again.

$WTIC

GET THE TRADE BEFORE IT HAPPENS:
https://t.co/uD7G1gC9t8

Where are the 40$ oil bros? https://t.co/wxpdPkftLG


Summary: Long uranium sector trend trade is paying off; ongoing bullish position.

5/23/25 Live Trading Room Market Recap & Trades

⭐ Short Updates
⭐ Commodities
⭐ Uranium WOW
⭐ FX Updates
⭐ Stock Updates

Trend Long Uranium Sector: REALLY WORKING!

https://t.co/2Yo4w8IYmd


Summary: Bearish NVDA: lobbying spend wasted and Trump intent to punish the company implies ongoing headwinds.

Great research. $NVDA not getting its money's worth on lobbying costs. I still contend:

TRUMP WANTS TO PUNISH NVIDIA

https://t.co/dK40fC2Ipg

Nvidia's expenses on lobbying reached a record high in its history—$940,000 USD in just the first quarter of 2025. In comparison, they spent a total of $640,000 in all of 2024 and $510,000 in all of 2023. This means Nvidia spent nearly the combined total of 2023 and 2024 lobbying https://t.co/JbH5kGl70e


Summary: Bullish gold, silver, and miners; bearish Bitcoin and Ethereum as retail rotates from crypto to underweighted metals.

I know I pitched this earlier, but I’m gonna do it again:

At what point do Bitcoin HODLers say...

"We're riding the wrong horse!"

#GOLD #SILVER #GOLDandSILVERminers
#IndustrialMiners #REALthings

Retail is way under-exposed to METALS but over-exposed to Crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum...
⏳

Outliers Revert With Velocity™

SILVER update:

The SILVER shortage is REAL.

“Australia’s Perth Mint, trusted worldwide, has fully suspended all sales of silver products. Not a single coin or bar leaves the facility—effectively erasing one of the world’s key sources of new physical supply.
In INDIA, the


Summary: Weakest: GTLB & AI; favorite swing long SOUN; PLTR buy-the-dip until parabola cracks.

$SOUN $INOD $PLTR $AI $GTLB $APP - Sept 21 client report was well-timed:

Of the 6 names I said the weakest are GTLB & AI.

The strongest in chase mode are INOD (+24% since) & APP +12% into 726 (hit).

My favorite swing long SOUN (just starting +10%)

& PLTR for buy-the-dip when/if we get it until the parabola cracks.

Upgrade to Pro or join us live at https://t.co/MrMkwZYdvt 💃


PLTR for buy-the-dip when/if we get it until the parabola cracks


It looks like a price crash, but it's actually a funding squeeze. 🎯🚀 #Silver #Metals

Summary: Bullish silver: reframes apparent price crash as a funding squeeze, implying upside from here.

It looks like a price crash, but it’s actually a funding squeeze.
🎯🚀 #Silver #Metals

🧵 Silver is starting to behave like it’s entering a squeeze phase.
Let’s decode what’s really happening beneath the charts (a thread)
1⃣ The structure has flipped.
Spot > SI 2 > SI 1 — that’s backwardation, not contango.
It means immediate metal is worth more than future https://t.co/bFr6kHIgLq


Summary: Author is pressing a short theme on homebuilders/consumer lending; names XHB, RKT, CVNA, SOFI, AFRM, UPST, COF, APO as consumer lending sector in trouble.

My Clients knew two months ago exactly where I expected home builders to get rejected. ✅. And then I pressed this short theme knowing…

CONSUMER LENDING SECTOR IS IN TROUBLE

https://t.co/gGD9ZOY5py

$XHB $RKT $CVNA $SOFI $AFRM $UPST $COF $APO

Why is nobody talking about homebuilders/suppliers crashing the past two weeks?

$HD -12%
$LOW -15%
$PHM -16%
$LOW -14%

Concerning. https://t.co/6xvplK9c1n


When I rec'd $ASTS in Feb '25 for clients' TREND LONG portfolio, never did the thought of "Golden Dome" enter my mind.

Summary: Still long ASTS in client trend portfolio; anti-Musk thesis was the original driver, now validated.

When I rec’d $ASTS in Feb ‘25 for clients’ TREND LONG portfolio, never did the thought of “Golden Dome” enter my mind.

But the “anti-Musk” thesis most certainly did. 🎯

https://t.co/aYcWOkaywZ

My take:  yes*

And, the Ligado deal woke up people.  Guys saw Cerberus and then started digging.  There is also the bridge financing going around, which is forcing big funds to study the name.  At the same time, it doesn’t take much work or much calling around to figure out that


Summary: Short QQQ from $559.


Summary: MSFT is the strongest MAG7 name; bearish scenario only if OpenAI rift drags it down, implying current bullish lean.

$MSFT is the strongest of the #MAG7 stocks. If this OpenAI rift & lawsuits brings Microsoft down, don't be surprised if market falls. #sentiment


Summary: Selloff is planned/mechanical deleveraging, not a real top; bullish gold/silver as inflation/supply-risk signals, and equities resume higher once hedges unwind.

Marko, you are brilliant, but no.

CHINA HAS THE GOLD & SILVER & RARE EARTHS & OIL & AI … AND DOES NOT NEED US. TRUMP IS PISSED HE CANNOT CONTROL THEM!

But even before that…
GOLD & SILVER FUNDING STRESS TRIGGERED FX VOL WHICH TRIGGERED EQUITY VOL & THEN TRUMP’S TIRADE

MECHANICAL DELEVERAGING TRIGGERED FORCED SELLING

Bullish Valuations from Nirvana AI Stories & Leverage & Fraud don’t just stop on a tweet. We are far from a real top. Because US buyers are far from reasonable or afraid.

Market behavior is predictable -  like people. Also like people, it LOVES to be lied to.

Try not to project this sell-off as anything more than it is: PLANNED & PATTERNED EVENT RISK TO MAXIMIZE POSITION HEDGES.

Once unwound, we go back to the same ol’ same ol’

More policy intervention AND fraud AND financialization AND political expediency of self-preservation.

But next time… market “may” be a little bit wiser to hedge the REAL RISKS NOT PRICED IN… like GOLD (silver, metals) telling US that we are not ready for the inflation & supply risks & consumer/labor weakness that are about to hit US shores and that CHINA (not Trump)  is the price-setter NOT price-taker.

Selloff today has little do with tariffs. Extreme leverage/valuations, fraudulent cos that rallied 2-3x in the last month of the bubble. Bucket of fuel, waiting for a spark. Many knew its a bubble and played it assuming they will know when to exit.


like GOLD (silver, metals) telling US that we are not ready for the inflation & supply risks


$JD China Play Is In Play … position for a breakout using call spreads or a broken-wing butterfly

Summary: Bullish JD on unusual call-options flow; positioning for breakout via spreads/butterfly; also covers BABA, BIDU, ASTS.

Mispriced Options: $JD China Play Is In Play

@HansCashFlow and I discuss $JD unusual options setup — 400K Jan $40 calls with IV spiking while price stays flat.

We break down how to position for a breakout using call spreads or a broken-wing butterfly to profit without overpaying for vol.

Also discuss $BABA $BIDU $ASTS


Summary: Bearish on mega-cap 7 at super-peak valuations (33.7x earnings, 27x index P/E); prefers AVGO over TSLA in the group.

Beyond “super peak” valuations

“Trading for 33.7x current earnings, the 7 have pushed the index P/E dangerously to over 27x (on margins near record highs). Capital expenditures at Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta and Broadcom are consuming a now huge proportion of cash earned in operations, feeding Nvidia and their own internal capex.”

MAG7 to include $AVGO not $TSLA

Stunning. The 7 largest U.S. stocks reached a combined $20 trillion in market value, an unprecedented 37% of the S&P 500. That’s 55% larger than the index at its 2000 and 2007 peaks. It matches where the index first traded in April 2017 and larger than the March 2020 Covid low. https://t.co/QMYJjGI7TW


Summary: Long AAPL on AI-to-edge thesis; GOOGL and QQQ also bullish following antitrust win bounce.

$AAPL Long As AI Moves To The Edge With $GOOGL

Apple looks strong in its consolidation channel, and Google’s antitrust win gave both stocks — and $QQQ — a stick-save bounce.

h/t @HansCashFlow - know what else he is trading? $NBIS 😉🔥 That worked.

Join us at https://t.co/MrMkwZYLl1


Apple looks strong in its consolidation channel, and Google's antitrust win gave both stocks — and $QQQ — a stick-save bounce


Google's antitrust win gave both stocks — and $QQQ — a stick-save bounce


Summary: Long-term bullish gold, silver, uranium, miners on de-dollarization; macro bearish equities into year-end on unpriced war risk.

Dancing Closer To Global Bond Volatility

"While stocks have rallied on liquidity and policy interventions, Samantha warns that this is a "monetary illusion" masking deeper structural problems. Amidst this, she remains long-term bullish on gold and commodities—particularly miners, silver, and uranium—due to strong fundamentals and continued global de-dollarization."

I might add that this macro-focused talk was before escalation between Israel & Iran! So I am even more macro bearish into end-of-year as volatility rises with war not priced in.

Link below

---

Here's the link from my interview recorded on Jun 11 with Jason Burack of WallStForMainSt as we discuss the growing risks to the U.S. economy and financial markets as fiscal policy takes center stage. @JasonEBurack

https://t.co/DMtiJOOUQF


long-term bullish on gold and commodities—particularly miners, silver, and uranium


PICK iShares Global Metals & Mining; GDX gold miners


Summary: Bearish NVDA: tariff-driven markup multiplier on Taiwan-sourced hardware will compress already-declining margins further, not priced in.

Don’t forget- it isn’t just adding tariff increases to COST of goods/services for a company, but adding the MARKUP MULTIPLIER… to maintain margins!

Nvidia margins have already fallen from 90 to 70%…
Where are fundamental analysts expecting them to be post tariffs?
#NotPricedIn

So a 20% tariff on Taiwan means a 20% increase in the cost of any Nvidia GPUs and hardware coming from Taiwan.

Will Microsoft and Meta buy fewer GPUs? Has this already been priced into their newly announced capex?


Summary: Remains bullish on ASTS despite research report being from early March.

@KenTabor I hope you noticed that this research report on ASTS was from early March - I’m not sure if the analyst situation has evolved since but the my bullish bent remains regardless. 🙏

@SamanthaLaDuc Glad to hear your insights on one of my favorite stock choices.

Especially appreciate your round-up of current analyst coverage.

Feels like something people need to hear more about when it comes to $ASTS.


Summary: Bullish MSFT: $40B revenue growth on flat headcount, now net negative after layoffs — operating leverage thesis.

“Past 3 yrs MSFT increased revenue >$40 billion. Same timeline headcount was flat...until last week w/ 3% layoff or ~6K ee's. Now net negative & $40B bigger. Let that sink in.“ @AntithetosCptl


Summary: Short consumer lending names SOFI, AFRM, UPST, RKT, APO, KKR as credit standards tighten; CVNA flagged as the next short.

"The reversal in credit froth will continue.
The standards are going to tighten which will cripple more weak entities."

h/t Geoffrey @ https://t.co/SICj0bSILF

Clients have hugely benefited from our Consumer Lending shorts of late:

$SOFI $AFRM $UPST $RKT $APO $KKR
$CVNA next https://t.co/97Zerh85MM


Clients have hugely benefited from our Consumer Lending shorts of late: $AFRM


Clients have hugely benefited from our Consumer Lending shorts of late: $UPST


Clients have hugely benefited from our Consumer Lending shorts of late: $RKT


Clients have hugely benefited from our Consumer Lending shorts of late: $APO


Clients have hugely benefited from our Consumer Lending shorts of late: $KKR


Summary: Author's short watchlist on regional banks/consumer lending is paying off; maintains bearish stance on the sector including ZION and WAL.

Bears Reminding: WE HAD THIS CONVERSATION ALREADY

Consumer Lending Sector Is In Trouble
📣 SEPT 30TH
https://t.co/riqITbJBmJ

MY WATCHLIST OF 32 SHORTS I review live with clients daily is a sea of red (great for our shorts) because “regional banks hit by bad loans” headline finally breaks😉

REGIONAL BANKS HIT BY BAD LOANS.

Shares of Zions Bancorporation ( $ZION) fell up to 6.4% after a $50M charge-off tied to a loan from California Bank & Trust. Western Alliance Bancorporation ( $WAL) dropped 11% over a collateral issue with a borrower and exposure to the collapse


MY WATCHLIST OF 32 SHORTS I review live with clients daily is a sea of red (great for our shorts)


gold/silver trend long for macro reasons with miners to outperform from falling energy prices & margin expansion

Summary: Long gold/silver and miners (GDX/GDXJ) on macro tailwinds and margin expansion from falling energy costs; remains short oil.

🫶 @JasonEBurack interviewed me JUNE ‘24, DEC, JUNE ‘25- each time we talked about exactly this: gold/silver trend long for macro reasons with miners to outperform from falling energy prices (I’m still oil bear) & margin expansion!

🎯🌟🙏 $GDX $GDXJ

Gold miners: The highest profit margins ever - by far! 🪙💰 We've never seen such stellar margins or this kind of margin expansion in such a short period of time.
Now, imagine: The Q3 AISC margin numbers are about to get even better. The average sale price of gold for the https://t.co/FCXVH7LceV


gold/silver trend long for macro reasons


Summary: Short consumer lending names UPST, AFRM, ALLY, SOFI, and CVNA on sector trouble.

In my Live Trading Room this morning, I reviewed recent shorts rec'd:

$UPST, $AFRM, $ALLY, $SOFI & soon $CVNA.

Consumer lending sector is in trouble.
@GraphCall alerted clients before the selling 🕺


soon $CVNA. Consumer lending sector is in trouble.


Summary: Long refiners VLO/PBF/MPC on ongoing refiner thesis; also long gold/silver/miners on parabola move, plus China rotation plays.

industry='Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing'

Bob & I have been rec'd $VLO to clients since 100 now pushing > $170!

Every day in my live trading room I review the refiner thesis long: $VLO $PBF $MPC.

Along with my high conviction China rotation plays & Gold/Silver/Miner parabola.

There are bull markets outside AI Tech😉

OIL - VAL-AIR-OH!
@SamanthaLaDuc https://t.co/ZfJR84p632


Summary: Holding gold miner longs since last summer and adding two more positions this week; bullish continuation on GDX, WPM, AEM, AGI.

The hiccup to the Gold Miner advance will be the oil spike, and how long that lasts… $GDX

OTHERWISE, THEY HAVE BEEN PHENOMENAL. CONTINUATION SWING LONGS SINCE LAST SUMMER FOR CLIENTS.  $WPM $AEM $AGI -

Adding two more this week

Gold Miners: Q2 margins are poised for another banner quarter!
The average gold price in Q1 was $2,860 per ounce. For Q2, the avg. POG is currently estimated to be $3,350/oz, which is up 15% QoQ. Imagine the AISC margins of the most profitable & leading gold producers. 💰👇 $GDX https://t.co/fBYY7ahPA1


Summary: Bearish NVDA: market will eventually be forced to price in China AI tech domination risk, causing significant downside.

@fredwalton216 @MotherCabriniNY Txs Fred. Even if not "this" Wed, there will be a time where market is forced to price the China AI Tech domination risk in & $NVDA will suffer greatly as a result.

@MotherCabriniNY I thought this was a very timely read, ahead of Wednesday.


Summary: Bullish metals (gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum) as inflation proxies amid dedollarization; bearish BTC (NDX-correlated liquidity tell) and oil (falling global demand).

I wanted to point out something that I think folks miss - because they deeply disagree:

I DO NOT see oil spike as reason for next inflation wave - like SO MANY fear.

I see METALS: Gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum…

And THIS isn’t a “commodity super cycle” with oil. No.
There is actually falling global oil demand, but the market doesn’t see it yet

Gold is now the purist form of an inflation proxy WITH exploding demand against limited supply ALL wrapped neatly against the backdrop of growing geopolitical stress AND dollar dedollarization, devaluation & debasement.

Also I believe BTC’s purpose as inflation off-ramp will not fix this. BTC is only as strong as NDX is strong + as a LIQUIDITY tell - from the MONEY BUBBLE that Fed/Treasury/White House created to keep the MONETARY ILLUSION in tact.

Story stocks can continue to rise with financialization, policy intervention, liquidity and dollar falling. AI hope is real but manic - ala 2000. Productivity gains will come but MUCH later.

Focus on gold is the tell:
Inflation is entrenched.
Fiscal Dominance is here.

Crack-up BOOM is not the same thing as a “secular bull market”. Fed cuts & Treasury T-bill issuance & White House stimulus only make the boom-bust worse, as “growing our way out of debt” will now trigger ever more inflation.

No matter what happens to NDX & BTC, there will be no deflation for non-asset holders which are the MAJORITY of humans on this planet!

I know we are taught everywhere in this soul-corrupting political & social media world: “Greed is Good”.

But it’s not really. It’s a sin actually. What isn’t is treating capital as if it is not disposable and living within our means. Good luck & God bless everyone.

My Sunday Sermon 🙏


I see METALS: Gold, silver, copper, palladium, platinum…


PALL Aberdeen Physical Palladium Shares ETF


PPLT Aberdeen Physical Platinum Shares ETF


There is actually falling global oil demand, but the market doesn't see it yet


Summary: Bullish ASML after a year of basing; claims the move is not over and expects further upside.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

TECH TRIFECTA: $AAPL $TSLA $ASML - all working as advertised!!!

AAPL ✅
TSLA ✅ tagged 479.44 today before sharp pullback we also caught live 🔥
ASML ✅

I mean, look at this oversold, strategic chip fab player just itching to explode higher after ONE YEAR OF BASING! Did I waste client’s time recommending before Sept 5th? No I did not - saving a lot of frustrations & wasted option premium from non-directional chop. My timing was spot on - and…ASML isn’t done ;-)

Upgrade to Pro or Join us live at https://t.co/1cI3g5CVHC


Summary: Reaffirms crude oil short with $60-40 target range by EOY 2025, suggesting even that target may be too high given China fusion energy news.

Maybe my crude oil short call  last April 2024 for new $60-40 range by EOY 2025 is just too high? #OOTT

It Burns For 17 Minutes: China's Artificial Sun Reaches 180 Million Degrees And Terrifies Global Energy Markets Forever https://t.co/6mAnm8hTYN


Summary: Bullish gold and silver as real inflation hedge / USD debasement plays; trend outperforming SPY and BTC on 3yr lookback, though caution flagged.

THE MOST POWERFUL MACRO TREND

Gold (but also Silver & Metals) remains in a most powerful macro trend - outperforming both $SPY & #Bitcoin on 3yr lookback.

Central banks aren't the only ones turning to metals as real inflation hedge & USD debasement. But it's time to take care! https://t.co/96CUYI6Unw


Summary: VIX bottoming near 15.50 mid-July/Aug before spike; equity melt-up leads to eventual melt-down.

"Since late April I've warned clients that “I don't see volatility until ~15.50 about mid-July/Aug”.
With Trump's Trade Tariffs continuing to get pushed out, it could extend the VIX bottoming process. Translation: we are still in the grips of a MELT-UP INTO MELT-DOWN baseline bet."

https://t.co/lTXEBnejY4


Summary: Bearish NVDA as China-recovery thesis is unpriced risk; China will push domestic alternatives over NVDA chips.

I've been writing about this since JAN so I have been expecting this!

My bet: China will discourage Chinese firms from buying $NVDA chips - even if currently more advanced then in-country alternatives.

Expecting Nvidia sales to recover in China is a risk not priced in. $SMH

Scoop: China seeks to triple output of AI chips in boost to DeepSeek ambitions

*New capacity: 3 plants for Huawei + SMIC doubling (now ~30K WPM)
*Cambricon 690 & Huawei 910D to natively support UE8M0 FP8
*Unprecedented alignment to build own AI ecosystem

https://t.co/ZXGIS6xNvb


Summary: Hedge QQQ (bearish equity), long crude oil, VIX rising to ~22, SPX testing ~5900 support.

Yup - my team uses these great SpotGamma tools & saw the same thing for https://t.co/R7vVGDvkqf clients.

Early this week I suggested a QQQ hedge and Crude oil long - with VIX pushing to 22 before getting tested/rejected most likely  ~ $SPX 5900 area.

https://t.co/ofK6d1gadi

$SPX we see the huge JPM 5,905 as major support and very little in the way of put positioning below that.

Our read on the VIX is there ain't much calls, either.

So, IMO, we lack fuel for huge downside and traders need to be forced to now add puts to spool up more selling. https://t.co/ILSs8GCCPV


$NVDA missed but market doesn't get it yet.

Summary: Bearish NVDA: datacenter rev miss despite strong hyperscaler capex is a warning sign the market hasn't priced in yet.

“when there is an issue with a semiconductor company after a few years of beating consistently, you should beware…

Nvidia’s miss in datacenter revs is despite a strong quarter from Nvidia's big hyperscaler customers and strong capex expectations.”

$NVDA missed but market doesn’t get it yet. #China

I thought NVDA would report a very strong quarter and was more concerned about their China commentary. I was wrong.

In reality, they missed expectations of datacenter revs (though by just 1%) for the first time since the intro of ChatGPT in late 2022 and beat overall rev


Summary: Bullish on uranium/nuclear complex (URA, CCJ, OKLO, FLR, SMR, URNM) on AI energy demand, energy security, and supply deficit.

This is my AI avatar, but the market analysis is real AND created without AI.

In this 10min video, I explain how renewed global interest in nuclear energy—fueled by AI infrastructure needs, energy security concerns, & deepening supply deficit—continues to validate my bullish positioning.

LINK BELOW!

$URA $CCJ $OKLO $FLR $SMR $URNM

---

Uranium Trend Long: It's So Old It's New

https://t.co/UNCyBeyqdO


continues to validate my bullish positioning


Summary: Bullish ORCL as a winner-take-all AI growth story embraced by the market.

WINNER TAKE ALL $ORCL promises unbelievable future AI growth: market screams in delight.

BLS revises jobs down by 2.5 million (March 2023 to March 2025) - market silence is deafening.


Summary: GDX hit prior price target but author sees further upside from here.

Took 3 months, but $GDX just hit my price target given to clients June 3rd.

And what's shocking, it doesn't look done.


Summary: Bearish crypto (BTC/ETH), bullish gold, silver, and miners; retail overexposed to crypto and underexposed to metals — expects mean reversion with velocity.

At what point do Bitcoin HOLDers say...

"We're riding the wrong horse!"

#GOLD #SILVER #GOLDandSILVERminers
#IndustrialMiners #REALthings

Retail is way under-exposed to METALS but over-exposed to Crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum...
⏳

Outliers Revert With Velocity™

---

*HODLers, sorry 😁
I'm so clearly TradFi I can't even get the meme right 😅


GDX gold miners ETF; SIL silver miners ETF


Summary: Bullish gold/silver miners on earnings + macro tailwinds, and Chinese tech on stimulus-driven rally from oversold levels.

Samantha's Fave Sectors, Still

Gold & silver miners keep crushing earnings with macro tailwinds, while China’s stimulus fuels a rally in oversold tech.
$GLD $GDX $BIDU $BABA $JD $KWEB


China's stimulus fuels a rally in oversold tech


Summary: Tactical long crude from $62, now at $69; sees $73 with overshoot to $75.65 as runner, then expects rejection. Trend bearish into EOY but short-term long still valid.

“I am trend bearish oil into EOY … but I still see room for crude to rise on a tactical swing long that is working well since June 2nd recommendation at $62 $WTIC into 70 PT. Now at 69 I can now see 73 with overshoot to 75.65 (runner only), but that's where I would really expect rejection.” #OOTT

https://t.co/uD7G1gC9t8


analysts/investors buy it. But it's a bad bet. ... there is a massive effort underway to de-Nvidia the AI technology stack, pushed from the top of the system

Summary: Bearish NVDA: Jensen's $50B China market claim is a bad bet as Xi is actively driving de-Nvidia'd tech stack from the top.

Jensen says China 'could be' a $50B market.
And analysts/investors buy it. But it's a bad bet.

"The problem for Huang and Nvidia is that Xi Jinping made it clear at the April Politburo study session that he wants China to de-Americanize the AI technology stack:

'Xi Jinping emphasized that to seize the initiative and gain the advantage in the AI field, breakthroughs must be achieved in fundamental theories, methods, tools, and more. We must continuously strengthen basic research, concentrate resources to overcome challenges in core technologies such as high-end chips and foundational software, and build an independent, controllable, and collaboratively functioning AI foundational hardware and software system [集中力量攻克高端芯片、基础软件等核心技术,构建自主可控、协同运行的人工智能基础软硬件系统]. We should use AI to lead a paradigm shift in scientific research and accelerate technological innovations and breakthroughs across various fields.'

“An independent, controllable, and collaboratively functioning AI foundational hardware and software system” means a de-Nvidia’d Chinese technology stack.

Huang can make his case to the media and to the US government, directly and through a growing army of lobbyists and proxies, but the ground truth in China is that there is a massive effort underway to de-Nvidia the AI technology stack, pushed from the top of the system."

https://t.co/WRvqtosxOv


Summary: Bullish AMD / bearish NVDA on Modular/Mojo breaching CUDA moat.

@Allen58028224 @thrashima I like it!! $AMD ~> $NVDA

#nvidia #AMD #MOATS
@thrashima @SamanthaLaDuc

AMD just partnered with the software firm Modular, and announced that (reading between the lines) Nvidia's software moat 'CUDA' has just been breached.

Modular offers a new computer language called 'MOJO' which is  similar to


Summary: MSFT, META, PLTR not sustainably shortable given AI/defense contract backdrop; implied bullish on all three.

OpenAI wins $200 million U.S. defense contract

There are no coincidences in markets.

$MSFT $META $PLTR - just not shortable against this backdrop for more than a trade. 👇


Summary: Very bullish on China/Chinese ADRs: long SSEC, BABA, BIDU, JD, KWEB, FXI; all working well and staying focused on the space.

Clients know I'm very bullish $SSEC & US Chinese ADRs: $BABA, $BIDU, $JD, $KWEB, $FXI.

All working really well. Very focused on this space.

Get the trade before it happens. Join us. 😊🔥


Summary: Widening trade deficit bullish for gold, bearish for USD.

Nice reminder on trade balance going the wrong way.

It is however very good for Gold but not for US dollar.

Last month, Bessent highlighted a narrowing U.S. trade deficit and credited tariffs for the improvement. 📉 But July's data shows a sharp reversal:

Deficit widened to -$78.3B from June's -$60.2B, exceeding forecasts of -$75.7B. What will he say now? #TradeDeficit #Tariffs https://t.co/rY0VZNBjpu


Summary: Long AAPL to ATH $260, TSLA to $480, ASML to $1K; bearish XHB on recession/yield risk; long UBER above $100, VRT, and CEG.

From Monday's Live Trading Room Review:

“Growth Rotation still in play. AAPL & TSLA making the day.”

* AAPL - pushed firmly above 250 target given last week on way to ATH at 260.
* TSLA - pushed firmly higher (Must-Trump at Charlie Kirk memorial shaking hands helped)… still have 480 in view.
* ASML - fast approaching my $1K PT from 800 given 2 wks ago as semis still hot.
* XHB - fell back on cue at 120 into 110; you know I don't trust it because I see recession risk & rising yields
* UBER - my “if 80 then 100” just needs to stay above 100 nowto continue to hit blue skies.
* VRT & CEG - working nicely higher as posted last few weeks.
👇
UPGRADE TO PRO OR JOIN US LIVE

*⃣ Best-of-breed MACRO analysis
*⃣ Get-the-trade-before-it-happens MICRO
*⃣ OPTIONS Mastery courses, mentoring & custom trade support


fast approaching my $1K PT from 800 given 2 wks ago as semis still hot


my 'if 80 then 100' just needs to stay above 100 now to continue to hit blue skies


VRT & CEG - working nicely higher as posted last few weeks


Summary: Bullish defense/space tech names ASTS, RKLB, UFO on US government as VC/whale theme continuing to drive the sector higher.

Defense/space tech is a sector that continues its rocket launch from my theme of US Government as Venture Capitalist & Whale.

$ASTS $RKLB $UFO


Summary: Short crude oil ($60-40 range on falling demand), long gold/silver on debasement, higher UST yields ahead, and weaker USD from fiscal dominance / stealth QE.

If you know I've been bearish oil for over a year when crude was $85, then you know that I see a new lower range for crude oil in the $60-40 based on FALLING GLOBAL DEMAND.

RISING GLOBAL DEMAND will underpin Gold/Silver as I posted to clients in Spring of last year as durable macro trend long.

RISING UST SUPPLY will underpin higher yields.

When the conditions change back from FISCAL DOMINANCE to MONETARY DOMIANCE, so too will my analysis, but I see no reason for that now.

In fact, I see the rate of change to trigger strongly higher yields picking up next year as all these DC policies are inflationary in an attempt to run the economy hot on rate cuts and stealth QE forcing the value of the dollar lower in a MONETARY ILLUSION of wealth.

It's not a "commodity supercycle".
It's debasement, dedollarization, devaluation of the US dollar, treasuries and oil.


RISING GLOBAL DEMAND will underpin Gold/Silver as I posted to clients in Spring of last year as durable macro trend long


Summary: Short PLTR, MSFT, SMH; bearish NVDA earnings; growth scare + stagflation risk drives shorts, SPX $6666 target viewed skeptically amid macro headwinds.

Market has been pricing in rate cuts. But now: growth scare.

And exactly when my Growth: Value Ratio hit resistance last Thursday 😉🎯

CHASE Shorts from my live trading room delivered

$PLTR $MSFT $SMH

But it’s a dance:

1. Powell trapped at Jackson Hole (stagflation)
2. NVDA earnings risk disappointment
3. NFP, if allowed, warns

After all that, market is still hell-bent on $SPX $6666

🚨This is INSANE:

The BLS is set to revise DOWN US job numbers by 550,000-950,000 for 12 months ending March 2025 on September 9, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

That’d be the biggest 12-month downward revision in 15 YEARS.

Total cut over 2 years would reach 1.5M jobs. https://t.co/6S2KDLypQN


Summary: Morgan Stanley's 60/20/20 shift implies a structural sell of US Treasuries driving yields higher; gold allocation rises as bonds are sold.

$MS just buried the lede!

The only way to go from a 60/40 portfolio to a 60(stocks)/20(bonds)/20(gold) portfolio is to SELL BONDS.

This is a major sell rating on U.S. Treasuries!

And this will help yields rise not fall!

Morgan Stanley has revised the classic 60/40 portfolio by splitting the 40% that was traditionally allocated to bonds with gold. So it’s now the 60/20/20 portfolio. If investors follow this advice, both long-term interest rates and gold prices are headed much higher.


Summary: Dollar failure + inflation from rolling short-term UST debt drives inflationary assets higher; bullish gold/commodities, bearish USD.

The gold market sees what is coming.

The failure of the dollar is the reason for inflationary assets to advance - even more than AI narrative.

Rolling short-term UST debt every few months keeps Fed trapped from hiking so inflation will rise with interest expense.
h/t @infraa_
https://t.co/Kb18SydXMC


Strip those out, and the company posted a pre-tax loss... creates the illusion of strength while masking underlying weakness

Summary: Bearish AMD: net income almost entirely artificial (tax reserve release + discontinued ops); cash flow inflated via receivables factoring and delayed vendor payments; underlying business at a pre-tax loss.

"AMD reported $872 million in net income. But that number was almost entirely artificial—padded by an $834 million one-time tax reserve release and a $104 million gain from discontinued operations. Strip those out, and the company posted a pre-tax loss.

Management also touted strong cash flow. But a deeper look reveals the “cash” came from selling off future revenues—literally factoring receivables to pull money into the current quarter. That trick alone added $330 million. They also delayed $836 million in payments to vendors, inflating the optics of free cash flow. Artificially boosting cash flow by factoring receivables and delaying vendor payments distorts the true health of the business—and creates the illusion of strength while masking underlying weakness." @1CoastalJournal

https://t.co/er5wdHG3vb


Summary: MSFT and META delivered on 14% forward earnings growth; author bullish both as market moves into rarified air.

Pretty sure $MSFT & $META just delivered on this 14% forward earnings growth expectation.

So who is next?

Because once there… market is in rarified air.


China become the 'collar price' on Oil & Gold... ensures the beginning of the end for the petrol-dollar... Gold can be used as electronic warrants as collateral for global trade instead of the USD

Summary: China anchoring gold/oil pricing and enabling non-USD trade settlement signals structural long gold, long oil, short USD thesis.

Not only has China decoupled from US...
And not only has China become the 'collar price' on Oil & Gold...

But this ensures the beginning of the end for the petrol-dollar that US has weaponized against oil importing nations, supports global GDP growth ex-US, and (as @GraphCall reminds):

"Gold can be used as electronic warrants as collateral for global trade instead of the USD."

Again, no need to settle trade in US dollar, treasuries or oil.

Bloomberg Reports

CHINA MAKES POWER PLAY FOR GLOBAL GOLD – EYES CONTROL OVER FOREIGN RESERVES TO CHALLENGE DOLLAR DOMINANCE

•Beijing pushes to become the world’s custodian of foreign sovereign gold, aiming to shake up the bullion market.

•The People’s Bank of China woos


China become the 'collar price' on Oil & Gold


I see a new lower range for crude oil in the $60-40 based on FALLING GLOBAL DEMAND

Summary: Bearish crude ($60-40 target on falling demand), long gold/silver on debasement, higher yields ahead, bearish USD on fiscal dominance/devaluation.

@SamanthaLaDuc Samantha, you have been bearish oil most of the time. Do you see this👇happening within the next 6-12 months?

https://t.co/bfI5sNkd2U


Summary: Record auto repossessions are bullish for CVNA short holders; author endorses the short thesis.

Good for a $CVNA short holder. Bad for consumer lending, income & spending.

#AutoRepossessions

2025 On Course for The Highest Auto Repossession Volume in Recorded History, Nearly 3 Million Cars Set to Be Seized — CUReposession

#MacroEdge


Summary: Rhetorically argues no fundamental basis for gold/silver trend reversal absent fiscal/trade balance; structurally bullish both on dedollarization/debasement.

Short of a balanced US trade +/or fiscal budget, what reasons are there for gold + silver to reverse this trend?

And if you say USD rises, you'd be right but only for a trade...

#dedollarization
#devaluation
#debasement

DB just lifted its 2026 targets: Gold avg $4,000 (range ~$3,550–4,450), Silver $45.

Drivers: softer USD, lower real yields, strong CB buying, weak recycling. Risks: hot equities, Q4 seasonality. Positioning still light; silver in deficit. #gold #silver https://t.co/WIuMuxwakb


market hasn't priced in either: compliance cost OR Trump's payback when they refuse. Concentration risk meet confiscation risk

Summary: Bearish NVDA: market not pricing in compliance costs or government retaliation risk; concentration + confiscation risk.

So no surprise:

$NVDA doesn’t want to share profits with US Govt & market hasn’t priced in either: compliance cost OR Trump’s payback when they refuse.

Concentration risk meet confiscation risk ⚠

🔴 Nvidia: Any request for a percentage of revenue may subject us to litigation. $NVDA


Summary: Long uranium; author reaffirms bullish thesis as even more relevant now.

Uranium Trend Long - Thesis & Update

Even more relevant today.

https://t.co/pcmXmi44Gp


Summary: SPX stalling after volatility spike; SLV at risk of quick reversal after surging to 2011 highs near $48.38.

Bear Market Rallies & Metal Squeeze Risks

In my client post & live trading room I share why $SPX can stall after volatility roared.

Also, $SLV surging into $48.38 (2011 highs) is now at risk - for quick reversal from slow down in pace of price gains.

JOIN US LIVE #AllAssets https://t.co/lK7XC4czC6


very good for my rec'd $FCX swing long with $COPX & $XME - from May for clients

Summary: Holding recommended swing longs in FCX, COPX, and XME since May; positions benefiting from copper's historic surge.

Trump making EVERYTHING that uses copper more expensive for US manufactures and consumers.
🙄

But it is very good for my rec’d $FCX swing long with $COPX & $XME - from May for clients! 💃

https://t.co/VUg8TLT72u

JUST IN 🚨: Copper gets a God Candle as it explodes by more than 13% for its biggest gain IN HISTORY 📈📈 https://t.co/rnj0KrtsZa


Summary: Expects falling global oil demand and an oil industry recession heading into 2026; bearish oil.

Conoco Phillips this week announced they’re reducing 25% of workforce & now Halliburton layoffs as oil activity slumps.

Falling global oil demand & an oil industry recession are not on many 2026 bingo cards - but mine. https://t.co/1l5E4IJxfT


Summary: Warns UAMY's parabolic move traps longs and risks liquidation-driven selloff.

industry='Other Industrial Metals & Mining'

$UAMY - From 12X to 17X in ONE DAY is called a parabola which is really trapped longs that can trigger volatility and then liquidation.

Don't be complacent metal & mining piggies!


Summary: Still holding long positions in uranium ETFs and CCJ since Nov 2020; expects dotcom-style frenzy then long sustained nuclear bull market.

Good take on this uranium & miner run into the hot hot sun:

“A dotcom-style frenzy panic buy on all things nuclear, huge gains, then a major reset (like 2000 dotcom bust), then a L-O-N-G sustained nuclear bull market, just as all things Internet have been in a sustained bull since the 2000-2003 washout cleaned up the dotcom mal-investment.”

$URA $URNM $CCJ

Rec’d & still trend long since NOV 2020

https://t.co/TDXj3gN0su

Non-consensus Uranium view:

As much as I've been an outspoken bull on uranium fundamentals for over two years, I don't think this is about fundamentals any more.

If I learned anything from running a small HF, it was that market inefficiencies and vicious or virtuous cycles of


Summary: Bullish nuclear power demand outlook; tags uranium ETF and Cameco as plays on growing nuclear electricity needs.

“The United States is dominant in energy, and has some of the lowest prices for gasoline in the world. But the problem is that we need more electricity, and more of that electricity needs to come from nuclear power, and the supply chains for nuclear power run through Russia and China.” $URA $CCJ
@35quai

https://t.co/ju3TbIJRNf


Summary: Long gold as global reserves rotate away from US Treasuries into Chinese bonds and ultimately gold as the final settlement asset.

"As Japan and China reduce their U.S. Treasury exposure, their reserves are quietly re-anchoring elsewhere. The correlation between Treasuries and global reserves has broken, flows are now moving through Chinese bonds and ultimately into Gold, the final settlement asset beyond debt and politics" @SunilRe89392848 🎯


Summary: Bullish gold miners and precious metals ETFs; weekly client chart is bullish, 100-level reading is a positive not a negative.

I have posted my bullish precent gold miners chart for clients each week and also said early last month... "rising into and staying at 100 is not bearish gold miners - just the opposite".

https://t.co/bWFFY5tU3q

$GDX $GDXJ $GLD $SLV

Gold miners are printing money.

Margins have never been this fat.

And yet… most gold stocks are still trading like it’s 2015. https://t.co/ZE5d7ecTE4


rising into and staying at 100 is not bearish gold miners - just the opposite


Summary: Reaffirms long gold / short oil position held since Apr 2024, with China controlling gold and oil pricing as thesis.

Bessent saying China is in depression without US is such a bold-faced lie.

Not only does China now control the pricing of Gold AND oil - as I’ve posted repeatedly past few months - but the Chinese are richer as a result!

LONG GOLD, SHORT OIL was my call since APR 2024!

@onechancefreedm Gold manages FX convertibility, liquidity mismatch, and collateral scarcity (even BIS calls gold collateral), and gold's price rise in the last year alone has improved Chinese consumer balance sheets by an estimated $1.2T.


Summary: Still holding long gold / short oil pair trade initiated last spring; both legs remain active.

RISK HAPPENS FAST

LONG GOLD, SHORT OIL TRADE SINCE LAST SPRING STILL WORKING, AND SO IS THAT VOLMEGEDDEN CALL!!

https://t.co/FaJxoAwK2s


Summary: Bullish on uranium trend; names CCJ, URA, FLR, SMR, PWR, BWXT as plays.

It’s So Old It’s New

URANIUM TREND IS EN FUEGO

$CCJ $URA $FLR $SMR $PWR $BWXT

 https://t.co/vcdXUtAiq4


Summary: Gold will continue to outperform oil; long GLD / short USO on intermarket analysis confirmation.

@LeopoldHeinrich Excellent chart. I love intermarket analysis and this is for the proof that gold is far out performing oil and will continue to

The #GLD:#USO ratio confirms this view. Golden cross, parabolic curve,higher highs and higher lows... https://t.co/9CVOgopo9h


Summary: Expects NVDA short to work, following a successful MSFT short call.

From last Wednesday's Macro-to-Micro Options Power Hour...

$MSFT SHORT WORKED & SO TOO WILL $NVDA SHORT 😉💃 https://t.co/WK7OCj3REQ


Summary: Strong conviction long gold through March 2024 despite being 18% above 10M EMA; watching for a pullback trigger but bias firmly bullish.

@DKlemitz XAU/USD is 18% above its mean (10M EMA), so watching for a trigger for it to come in a bit, but yes: strong, strong incentive to go long GOLD March 2024 & stay long!!

XAG/USD next? https://t.co/yanoPG1DpV


Summary: Short ORCL position; long SPX toward $6666 target set months ago.

Nice way to close a week:
$50 $ORCL short - 😆😚

And almost to my $6666 $SPX target given months ago.

🙏 Enjoy your weekend 🙏


Summary: Google's search restriction deepens its moat; bearish Reddit which loses impressions from the change.

$GOOGL as gatekeeper just created an even deeper moat.

DeepMind and Gemini will benefit. $RDDT will not.

 "88% of sites saw a drop in impressions"

https://t.co/nRI2hI0uwY

Google just made a subtle but massive change

Last month, Google quietly removed the num=100 search parameter.

This means you can no longer view 100 results at once. The default max is now 10.

Why does this matter?

- Most LLMs (OpenAI, Perplexity, etc.) rely (directly or https://t.co/nR1rJMRp7K


Summary: China's dollar bypass + gold settlement supports gold (long GLD) and pressures oil prices lower.

China’s Pricing Power Over Oil & Gold

Our Geoffrey @GraphCall has been way ahead of this transition & how to trade it…

China’s move to settle trade in gold, push EV adoption, and bypass the U.S. dollar that will reshape global markets.

These shifts pressure oil, support gold, and create growth advantages for countries outside the U.S. $GLD #WTIC

https://t.co/mxOm2Efmly


Summary: Long gold and gold/silver miners: dollar debasement, ATH room to run, and low investor expectations set up outsized upside.

"Ironically, the chronic underperformance of mining companies is why they have been left-for-dead by many active traders let alone passive investors.

And that is likely why I am most excited about this sector.

🧵

---

1. Foreign Central Banks will not stop converting USD for gold as long as US is in Fiscal Dominance. Debasement of the dollar is bullish gold.

2. Gold is at ATH nominally, but not relative to USD. It has room to move much higher relative to history.

---

3. Central Bankers need gold (not gold equities) to circumvent USD, but gold/silver stocks will appreciate nominally as the underlying prices rise.

4. Gold & Silver chasers will point to the $35 to $850 gold run during the 1970s, when stagflation occurred in the US during an inflationary wave.

---

5. Investor expectations are currently extremely low for miners, which is a great set up for my mantra that Outliers Revert With Velocity."

The above was part of my client post April 5, 2024.

To see more of my rationale for recomending TREND LONG GOLD: https://t.co/t037QHwGDx


gold/silver stocks will appreciate nominally as the underlying prices rise


Summary: US rare earth dependency risk not priced in; bullish on rare earth assets.

REMX VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF

Excellent job, Ed.

I say it again, US Rare Earth Dependency:
Not priced in. Not even close.

https://t.co/eZ9XtsWI7O

🎥 What on earth are rare earths?
Why do they matter so much?
Why do they nearly all come from China?
And how worried should we be about the latest chapter in the trade war?
These and more questions answered in my latest primer👇 https://t.co/VKMw3CscJE


Summary: Short oil; any war-driven price spike won't last — fade the rip.

@richardhirschs1 It won’t last.

#ShortTheRip

#OOTT

⚠BREAKING
WAR BREAKS OUT WITH IRAN.

#OIL SHOCK 3.0 POSSIBLE.

If this war causes an oil price spike (as it did in 1973), then that will devastate the world economy, and stoke #inflation.

 A third #oil crisis will be the ultimate #stagflationary impulse.

Oil price spikes are https://t.co/eXKT6A8MLS


My $BABA price target given clients early 2024 is fast approaching: "If $120 them $240"

Summary: Bullish BABA with $240 price target; says target is fast approaching.

A few points:

1. ASI - super artificial intelligence - exciting/scary stuff 🫥

2. China is way ahead of US & will keep it that way.

3. My $BABA price target given clients early 2024 is fast approaching: “If $120 them $240”

🇨🇳Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu: AGI is not the end point, ASI is the beginning
On September 24, at the 2025 APSARA Conference, Eddie Wu, chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, said that AGI is an intelligent system with human-like public cognitive ability, and it has become a real world in https://t.co/57Sva25UA7


Summary: Bullish BABA toward $182 Q4 target (hit early), BIDU working, JD described as next mover.

How many days in a row, weeks in a row have I written and said to clients:

“BABA - gorgeous”
“BIDU - working”
“JD - next”

BABA is approaching the $182 I gave for Q4 …in Q3! 🚀
THAT is gorgeous!!


we have GLOBAL oil demand falling - with price - the market just doesn't know it yet

Summary: Bearish crude oil: global demand falling driven by China-led EV displacement of ICE, price to follow as market catches up.

And y’all wonder why I keep saying past year plus that we have GLOBAL oil demand falling - with price - the market just doesn’t know it yet.
$WTIC

Our Geoffrey warned this China-led EV revolution would replace ICE cars in many countries. @GraphCall 🎩

https://t.co/RqYliIMUWK

Chinese Innovation Strikes Again https://t.co/DfdhVZK2xa


Summary: Chase short ORCL; chase long NVDA on AI outlook lifting markets.

"The Market Is Not Pricing In Anything Bad – That's Why It's Bullish!" 😆

@HansCashFlow and I discuss $ORCL chase short, $NVDA chase long on AI outlook lifting markets with misinterpreted PPI drop fueling #Fedcut hopes. https://t.co/c7xOAjGDUt


$NVDA chase long on AI outlook lifting markets


Summary: UUUU extended but still bullish — expects digestion to ~10.74 before higher highs continue.

$UUUU sideways consolidation above its 10W EMA = SIDEWAYS when frothy/extended. Only one tag of its 10W EMA but never closing below so doing nothing wrong. It's extended again NOW - which translates to likely digestion back down with tag of 10.74 vs 8.21 warning then. Higher highs. Still working.

@SamanthaLaDuc also said it was frothy 40% ago 🤷♂


Summary: Reiterates bearish crude oil call targeting $60-40 range by end of 2025, framed as inevitable oil industry recession.

Not a question of IF just WHEN the Oil Industry Recession hits US.

Again, here's our Geoffrey @GraphCall

"50% of the demand is for ground transportation. And EVs are 5X cheaper per mile. And with high power density batteries with Sodium (cheap raw material), new  EVs will be cheaper than ICE."

And my call last APRIL 2024, that crude would trade in $60-40 range by end of 2025.

Weekly unemployment insurance claims in some of the big Permian and Eagle Ford Counties.

This is not a chart that I enjoy seeing go up.

Latest data point a/o May 17th. https://t.co/0pJPWHB31F


Summary: Bearish USD on de-dollarization/debasement, bearish long-duration USTs as bond bears entrenched, bullish commodities as inflation reprices them higher.

DJP broad commodity ETN; PDBC Invesco commodity ETF

Recession can drive a short-term rally in dollar and bonds BUT I do not see a trend reversal higher for the dollar without falling term premium demanded on longer duration notes and bonds, and that’s not likely because the US currency is shite.

Dollar would be bullish if Trump/Congress actually focused on fiscal restructuring not trade wars, if grift was kept to a dull roar not magnified from crypto crap & stable cons, if fiscal dominance was reversed not accelerated by removing Fed independence…

So… de-dollarization, devaluation and debasement are the entrenched trends the market does not see yet that will further erode consumer purchasing power and reprice commodities higher.

Result: Inflation is entrenched and so are Bond Bears.

Fed cuts won’t help and recession will trigger growth scares that will only drive a weaker dollar big picture as MONEY GOES HOME FASTER, pushing G7 yields even higher.

I think it will surprise many when US bonds don’t get bid for more than a trade but yields do.

Crack-up boom phase is coming.

@SamanthaLaDuc but what if the dollar does strengthen when yields rise?  what is your thesis then?


Summary: Still holding gold, silver, and miners long; original April 2024 thesis remains intact.

Every word still holds true as rationale to hold gold/silver/miners trend long:

(Posted April 5th, 2024) https://t.co/rW8mohZThX


Summary: Bullish gold/silver miners on extreme undervaluation vs physical mania; bearish AI tech growth rally as China rare earth ban threatens forward earnings.

Tale of Two Markets:

There are forward earnings in AI TECH MANIA stocks brought way way forward that have driven the growth rally. Very hard to achieve with China rare earth ban. 😬

And then there are forward earnings in GOLD & SILVER MINING stocks that are so undervalued despite a REAL MANIA in physical buying of their underlying. 🚀

The ULTIMATE ROTATION is close! 💰💸🤑

Except for one problem:
China controls the ultimate price on both sectors. 🫥🔥🥺

@TaviCosta FCF up 11x while price only 2.5x. Value trap resolving.

Miners at 0.5x NAV with record margins are finally getting re-rated.

If gold consolidates here and FCF stays elevated, these stocks have another 2-3x just to reach historical valuation norms.


Summary: Bullish on gold/silver miners (GLD, GDX, SLV) on earnings + macro tailwinds, and China internet names (BIDU, BABA, JD, KWEB) on stimulus-driven rally.

My Fave Sectors, Still

Gold & silver miners keep crushing earnings with macro tailwinds, while China’s stimulus fuels a rally.

$GLD $GDX $SLV
$BIDU $BABA $JD $KWEB https://t.co/S1hQXZWGHZ


Summary: Long ASTS, flagging options update with massive gains.

TREND LONG $ASTS

Options Update +60,000%

Good Enough?

https://t.co/vFKEIX0O3w