Summary: Bullish oil: Gulf force majeure + Iran conflict escalating to global energy crisis will reprice oil sharply higher; dismisses Bessent's futures suppression as insufficient.

Trump & Netanyahu’s war on Iran hasn’t just triggered a Middle Eastern War but soon World War as their physical energy supply system just declared force majeure - driving this from a regional oil shock to global oil crisis WHICH WILL REPRICE EVERYTHING

Bessent suppressing the US oil futures market won’t fix this!

"Qatar expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks and drive oil to $150 a barrel, the country's Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times in an interview published on Friday.
"Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect


Summary: Highest-conviction long on INTC into 2026; position given to clients early and still unfolding.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

And another highest conviction stock pick from 2025 for 2026 given to clients early & often ... is "so old it's new" 😉and just starting to get noticed.

Join us - and get the trade before it happens.

One Of My Highest Conviction Stock Picks From 2025 For 2026: INTEL ($INTC)

https://t.co/wBM5pIbn9u


Summary: Bearish HY credit (JNK/HYG accident waiting to happen); expects HY spread widening + leveraged loan repricing; private credit/IG alt managers (BX/OWL/APO/ARES) already hit.

So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling.

Wait and see mode only lasts so long...
Geopolitical shocks can trigger financial shocks. Oil spikes are inflationary & often recessionary.
Private credit cracks can turn into ravines.

But somehow, high yield spreads have stayed range-bound - up 28% from Jan bottom & back at March '25 levels (before they exploded 50%) - but still contained why IG is hit ($BX $OWL $APO $ARES).

Color me skeptical. $JNK & $HYG look like an accident ready to happen. Not if just when.

Software-concentrated credit across both private and public books has yet to be repriced. I expect further spread widening in leveraged loans/HY as tighter refinancing conditions develop this year.

Why bulls remain steadfast now is because HY credit & corp earnings have not deteriorated, yet.

But when they do, we will already be IN a bear market.

Watch the 10Y yield rise > 4.33% into 4.6 soon. Then everyone will see what I see coming.

Also, @tradingNQdaily summed up well:

"IG underperforming HY on dislocations is the tell. When the high-grade names are more dislocated, it means duration risk is the real problem, not credit risk. The Fed has a bond market problem, not just an equity problem."

This year, duration risk and credit risk will be the problem. The market just doesn't see it yet.

A New York Fed index signaled that the US corporate bond market saw more dislocations in March, with the high-grade bond market more bruised than its high-yield counterpart https://t.co/VcXR6NTmpb


Summary: Short AAPL runner targeting $287; also set up memory sector shorts and bank longs.

$AAPL got to my $293 with ease. Holding at least a runner for 287 in the next week makes a lot of sense. #LiveTradingRoom

Today, I set up memory shorts & bank longs.
JOIN US.

I gave $316 on the upside as swing long target post earnings in April as long as $265 held. It held. And Last week I gave $316 as short level for reversion to mean trade back to 293/287. Also working. #LiveTradingRoom


Summary: Acknowledges GOOGL Cloud/AI strength but warns gasoline above $5 triggers recession risk that will weigh on equities at all-time highs.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Congrats $GOOGL - Cloud/AI biz crushing it!

But Americans won’t care once gasoline gets/stays above $5/gallon.

Recession Into All Time Highs™ will start to trend.

The $GOOG numbers were absolutely MIND-BLOWING.

Revenue +22%. Cloud +63% (WTF???) up from +48% in Q4, with record margin at 33% despite huge capex. Search accelerated yet again to +19%. The opposite of dead! Total Op margin at 36.1% (+200bps) = staying lean!

Just STUNNING. 🤯 https://t.co/RFLJJQ2MCq


Summary: Endorses gold/risk-asset rally and dollar weakness from Fed independence erosion, but says pace yourself — in time.

"Gold and risk assets should rip higher. Dollar should get wrecked."

To which I say: in time... pace yourself: https://t.co/oZHU1EvIv3

@SamanthaLaDuc I'm not getting it.

•End of Fed independence
•External political influence
•A new “inflation measure” (designed to understate it)

This is all clearly about hiding real inflation so they can cut rates, ease policy, print more, and accommodate for the medium to long term.


Summary: Active short positions in GOOGL and META, author sees further downside ahead.

$GOOGL & $META Shorts Working Well

And where I see them going... https://t.co/uBSCjBPv1C

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Summary: Sustainably higher oil → higher global yields → USDJPY up, USD up/yen down → bonds and equities fall.

Higher for longer! (Oil, that is)

And clients know my mantra:

"sustainably higher oil → higher global yields → usdjpy up → usd up/yen down = bonds & equities fall"

https://t.co/5HAmJsOd5H

@KobeissiLetter Iran just created the most aggressive de-dollarization checkpoint in history.

Every toll paid accelerates the yuan's role in commodity trade and builds a template for dollar bypass that survives any eventual conflict resolution.

The $2 million flat fee per transit runs roughly https://t.co/Xn3gB4irvR


Summary: Turned bearish on housing/Fannie Mae and crypto-backed mortgages after news of FNMA accepting crypto-backed loans.

I wasn't bearish housing industry until THIS news.

$FNMA $BTCUSD #CryptoBackedMortgages

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $4.3 trillion mortgage provider Fannie Mae to accept crypto-backed mortgages, WSJ reports.


Summary: Ceasefire seen as a specific positive catalyst for ORCL via Middle East data center expansion.

'Ceasefire' helps Data Centers in the Middle East and AI Tech back home...

but also $ORCL specifically...

Why Iran's Blockade Is an Oracle Story

https://t.co/wXbcfdzMK7

@LukeGromen @thedreydossier

Last week, Luke Gromen appeared on Grant Williams’ podcast, and the insights were quite compelling. Key takeaways are summarized below:

Key Points

1. A US-Iran ceasefire was announced, with both sides claiming total victory. Gromen's base case is that it will not hold, but he


Summary: UAE exit from OPEC+ accelerates regional oil pricing and petrodollar bypass, bearish for oil and USD.

UAE leaving OPEC+ speeds the transition to regional oil pricing sooner … with trade outside purview of SA & USD… transacting outside the petrol-dollar … all of which is bearish for the post-war oil market and USD

There have been countless premature OPEC obituaries written over the years, and they've all turned out to be wrong—I expect they'll muddle through this latest blowup, too.

But make no mistake: the UAE announcing its departure from the producer group is a massive crack, arguably


Summary: Bearish on stocks (QQQ) and bonds (TLT): rising yields, sticky oil/dollar are macro headwinds; TLT on monthly support with weakening internals.

Bond Bulls Need To Defend Now
$QQQ $DXY $TLT #crudeoil

Rising yields — with sticky oil & dollar —are setting up to be solid macro headwinds for stocks. Same time as $TLT is sitting on monthly support with weakening internals.

Bond bulls need an intervention! https://t.co/DYabnJenlY

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Trump sending US troops to invade Iran's Kharg Island will quickly trigger even higher global oil prices

Summary: Kharg Island invasion scenario would send oil, yields, and USDJPY sharply higher via strait closures.

Bookends!

Straight of Hormuz on one side and Bab Al Mandab on the other!

Trump sending US troops to invade Iran’s Kharg Island will quickly trigger even higher global oil prices, yields & USDJPY. #NotSafe

⚡BREAKING

Yemen to close Bab al Mandab strait if US forces try to capture Iran's Kharg Island

It will cause devastating economic consequences - Tasnim https://t.co/mNKTExRcew


$WMT was a rec'd short for clients post earnings. It's still working well.

Summary: WMT remains a live short recommendation for clients; still working post-earnings.

$WMT is disappointed in results from OpenAI partnership, whereby Walmart users are allowed to shop via ChatGPT and OpenAI would receive a commission on these purchases

“Conversion rates—the percentage of users following through with a purchase of an item shown to them by https://t.co/Ba2QLWpjN0


Summary: Bullish gold and risk assets, bearish USD on Fed independence erosion, policy easing, and inflation obfuscation; 'pace yourself' implies medium-term.

@Tariko_MuyRico "Gold and risk assets should rip higher. Dollar should get wrecked."

in time... pace yourself https://t.co/blfCIoq1g0

@SamanthaLaDuc I'm not getting it.

•End of Fed independence
•External political influence
•A new “inflation measure” (designed to understate it)

This is all clearly about hiding real inflation so they can cut rates, ease policy, print more, and accommodate for the medium to long term.


Summary: Higher-for-longer yields assured; bearish on long-duration bonds (TLT short, 10Y yields up).

“Higher For Longer” Yields Assured

#10Y $TLT #USD

Not if but when... https://t.co/aJIjUdf18H

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Summary: Crude oil $120 target triggered; SPX $6666 target active; updated short positions in JETS and FDX.

My Crude Oil Price Shock Target Of $120 Triggered – Now What?

$WTIC worked & so did $VIX

GAP DOWN MON that saw puts monetized & bounced on queue!

Oh yeah, and my $SPX $6666 is more than a price target👿

Updated shorts in $JETS $FDX too

#LiveTradingRoom

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https://t.co/AcBGV7CYoO


industry='Integrated Freight & Logistics'


US oil prices are on track for their largest weekly gain on record in data going back to 1982, now up +34.5% this week - and still not at my target...

Summary: Crude oil still has further to run; author's price target not yet reached despite record 34.5% weekly gain.

Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target

💫Iran Risk Is Starting To Get Priced In
💫Day 4 of Operation Epic Folly
💫Wars Are Not Deflationary
💫How High Can Oil Go
💫Tech To Lose Its Key Source Of Funds

https://t.co/kHyaoLnd0l


Summary: Highest-conviction long on INTC for 2026.

One Of My Highest Conviction Stock Picks From 2025 For 2026: INTEL ($INTC)

https://t.co/wBM5pIbn9u


Summary: Semis, gold, and broader market liquidity have all topped; expects prolonged mean-reversion rollover from here.

This will not be a popular opinion, but it's mine:

Semis, Gold & Liquidity Have Topped This Year

From my live trading room March 20th... semiconductors, gold & broader liquidity trends have peaked after a multi-year rally. Mean reversion = prolonged rollover.

$SMH $GLD $SPX https://t.co/lbkxNh43At

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Summary: Reiterates long recommendations on refiner and nat gas plays VLO, PBF, COP, EOG, OXY, and FCG after recent digestion.

industry='Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing'

Refiners & Nat Gas Power Higher

Lots of clients trading the oil & gas plays, so I reviewed my long rec'd refiner plays & $FCG nat gas index stocks that still look good after some needed digestion.

$VLO $PBF $COP $EOG $OXY https://t.co/lXeUTMgA6j

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$FCG nat gas index stocks that still look good after some needed digestion


Summary: Bullish MSFT if OpenAI prevails against Musk in court.

@_LeeHutchinson Indeed. But if OpenAI somehow prevails in court with Musk… $MSFT WILL GO BOOM

@SamanthaLaDuc At the risk of making that nasty cough worst - https://t.co/whfUTyft44


gold is bouncing right on cue as highlighted in advance to clients once it reached my short target! Strong $4200 technical support ✅ Oversold from an options positioning & skew perspective ✅

Summary: Covered short at $4200 technical support; gold now bouncing long on oversold options positioning and macro regime change.

And gold is bouncing right on cue as highlighted in advance to clients once it reached my short target!

1. Strong $4200 technical support ✅

2. Oversold from an options positioning & skew perspective ✅

3. Macro regime change on use of funds in trade settlement ✅

“This doesn't mean the structural case for gold is broken. The dollar standard is still ending. Surplus countries still need an alternative to Treasuries and gold is still the most obvious destination.

But it does mean gold is going to be more volatile along that structural trend than most people expect, and the volatility will correlate with global growth and surplus generation rather than with the old drivers.

Gold rallies when surpluses expand. Gold sells off when surpluses contract.

Even if the reason for the contraction is rising geopolitical risk that, under the old model, should have sent gold to the moon.”

Gold and silver are not acting well in a period of rapidly rising geopolitical risks. We have an Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, rising volatility. In the old framework, that setup should be close to ideal for gold. But once you understand what is now driving gold, this move


Summary: Bullish gold as petrodollar displaced by petro-yuan with gold as settlement mechanism outside USD.

PetrolDollar meet PetrolYuan
- all settled outside USD in GOLD

They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY…

…and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to China in CNY.

People selling gold today are likely to be sorry.