I can see $255-265 H/S target before resistance rejection. This time we don't have that momentum unless NVDA earnings repeat this week which I doubt.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: head-and-shoulders target $255-265 then rejection; lacks AI/NVDA momentum catalyst of prior rally.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

@SimpleSwings I can see $255-265 H/S target before resistance rejection. Last time the breakout rally had fuel from AI + NVDA blowout. This time we don’t have that momentum unless NVDA earnings repeat this week which I doubt.

$TSLA - You guys notice anything?✍ https://t.co/rO37eGEyB7


Summary: MSFT showing diamond top + MACD crossover — bearish technical setup.

@Mr_Derivatives Looks like a broad top candidate. $MSFT diamond top + macd crossover too

Today is an INTERIM top on $SMCI and $NVDA.

Notice I didn’t say THE top. Just interim.

Don’t cancel me.


I think we follow the gann line up to 206-213 with some chop downwards to 192-194. Looking to buy the dip next ~2 weeks.

Summary: Expects TSLA to rally to 206-213 following gann line, with dips to 192-194; plans to buy the dip over next ~2 weeks.

Always tough predicting short term movement, but $TSLA looks like it's going to re-test $196 by Monday. It would be a repeat pattern setup from Dec 1 2022. 20sma + gann fan + fib chan + trendline resistance confluence around there https://t.co/vYB8vLBjRH

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Within $2 of projection. I can see 20sma touch around 196.50 Monday though, and unless Tues China numbers surprise (unlikely during CNY), we going down to 180 and possibly 165 real fast. Sold all my calls today at 193 that I got from 177-182. Adding to my short/hedged positions on $TSLA

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Took profits on $TSLA short positions today at bottom yellow arrow. I expect an inverse head/shoulders setup (194 neckline) going into next week. If it fulfills expect a 206 gap fill and possibly 213. After that, I'd expect a measured move down to 146-167 https://t.co/XdMZ7ajjg3

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Taking almost 3x gains (here at 198 green arrow) on my March 200c's I bought at 183 (bottom yellow arrow). I think we follow the gann line up to 206-213 with some chop downwards to 192-194. Lots of resistance at 197/198 + 200 + 206/207 + 210-213. Lots.

Looking to buy the dip next ~2 weeks. Keep in mind that $TSLA moves fast.


$TSLA isn't in profit maximizing mode. They're in hyper growth mode. Large cap companies are not near $TSLA growth projection of 50%+ a year

Summary: Bullish TSLA: hyper-growth mode with 50%+ annual growth projection, not yet profit-maximizing — analogous to early Amazon.

@Masterstroke420 @jpr007 $TSLA isn’t in profit maximizing mode. They’re in hyper growth mode. Large cap companies are not near $TSLA growth projection of 50%+ a year; can’t have growth and profits maximized at same time. Refer to $AMZN for reference and look where they at now.

@jpr007 I have a friend that is trying to argue that Tesla is ‘only’ profitable from selling regulatory credits, could I trouble you for a rebuttal?


Summary: Short TSLA; 2024 bottom not in, EPS and volume growth estimates still too high, rally to $1T unlikely.

Now $TSLA investors are thinking 'rally back to 1T' - my take: unlikely. Today's +5% movement is driven by FSD bullishness but amplified by bullish reversal TA patterns. A convincing break above ~$184 is confirmation of a double bottom. Unlikely with earnings coming up Apr 23.

Anyone saying mathematical models from TA are useless, look at this simple trading 101 Fibonacci extension for $TSLA. Accurate within $0.01.

I do not think the bottom for 2024 is in yet. EPS and vol growth est are still too high at $2.80 and ~1.97m.

Disclosure: been short since $257 with 60+ DTE puts (deep in profit) but bought Apr 12 calls on Friday to hedge upside.


Summary: Long PYPL on inverse head-and-shoulders; targets $72.50 gap fill then $79 confluence with weekly Ichimoku cloud top.

Watching $PYPL inverse h/s setup - target 1 $72.50 gap fill, target 2 $79 - confluence at $79 w/ ichi weekly top of cloud + momentum is bullish @gurgavin @saxena_puru


Summary: Bearish TSLA near-term: sub-450k Q3 deliveries, <$0.75 EPS, no breakout from trading range until mid-2024.

@TSLAFanMtl Hmm. Sounds like Q3 sub 450k deliveries and <0.75 EPS more likely than not. Been saying for 12+ months that we likely aren't breaking out of this trading pattern until ~mid-2024. A potential refresh MY will also hamper deliveries. 2025+ nothing changes though.

This changes things for me from a forecast perspective for Q3-23.

Tesla IR appears to be trying to lower expectations for both deliveries and production heading into the end of the quarter. This may suggest that they won’t be as aggressive on price to hit a volume target. Maybe https://t.co/6vML35VmAE


Summary: Author sold/hedged TSLA and plans to re-enter only at $123–156, implying further downside ahead from current levels.

Well, sucks for $TSLA investors who didn’t capitalize. Fortunately, I sold and hedged hard between $235 and $414 as I saw margin compression and demand gap year 2023-24. Plan to re-enter around $123-156

1 YEAR AGO ANALYSTS EXPECTED TESLA TO MAKE OVER $7 DOLLARS IN PROFIT PER SHARE IN 2024

EARNING ESTIMATES ARE NOW DOWN 50% TO JUST $3.70 YET THE STOCK IS AT THE SAME EXACT PRICE

$TSLA https://t.co/RyDHuGBOS0


Fundamentals and technicals are shit. FYI that's a textbook diamond top

Summary: Bearish TSLA: fundamentals and technicals weak, chart forming a diamond top reversal pattern.

@cryptocantoncat I remember discussing $TSLA with you months ago when you thought it would break above $300 and I was calling for $180. Fundamentals and technicals are shit.

FYI that’s a textbook diamond top


Summary: NVDA not overvalued; AI potential + earnings growth still in early innings — bullish.

$NVDA early reaction is this stock is not overvalued given AI potential + earnings growth and we're still in the 1st inning


Tsla bottoms around $75-80. Let's get there soon then trade sideways until July/Aug when CT releases

Summary: TSLA bottoms at $75-80 then trades sideways until Cybertruck release in July/Aug; implies a floor and eventual recovery.

@EmmetPeppers Tsla bottoms around $75-80. Let’s get there soon then trade sideways until July/Aug when CT releases

These Tesla price cuts in US are clearly a step back for margins in Q1 (maybe Q2 too?) and my gut says $TSLA stock may drop significantly, anywhere from 5-20% tomorrow/Monday as either one day or two day drop

Just another week in the life of being a $TSLA shareholder


$TSLA likely dips into or after Q3 earnings and this will be one of the fundamental reasons that leads into a technical bearish setup into EOY

Summary: Bearish TSLA into/after Q3 earnings; overvaluation at 1.9x PEG sets up technical bearish case into EOY.

S&P 500 Magnificent 7:
- $AAPL most expensive (2.6x) on PEG, $META cheapest (1.2x)
- $TSLA offers highest forward EPS growth (+29% CGR) but at 1.9x PEG no longer that cheap
- $NVDA looks cheap on PEG (1.3x) https://t.co/NT23iLSN4I


Summary: Implicitly still long TSLA; mainstream misunderstanding of FSD/Robotaxi potential remains the edge.

@SawyerMerritt The mainstream misunderstanding of $TSLA has been one of the main reasons why being long has been so profitable.

The amount of 🤡 that showed up in my replies today reinforces my thoughts that so many people have no idea what FSD/FSD Beta is, the tech behind it, the potential of it and what a Robotaxi network will do to Teslas balance sheet. Their ignorance and lack of research is our gain.


"No competition" does not apply to China for $TSLA

Summary: Bearish TSLA: Xiaomi's 50k EV orders in 27 mins shows meaningful competition exists in China, undermining TSLA's moat narrative.

So…yesterday I said I wouldn’t be surprised if Xiaomi got 20k orders in the first 24 hrs.

Well guys…I was wrong…turns out, they got 50k orders in 27 mins!

I repeat…50k orders! in 27 mins!

Congrats @leijun and the entire @Xiaomi team! https://t.co/Wk8YeXw196


Summary: Raises 2021 EOY TSLA PT range to $1600-2000 at 25-35% probability; 50% chance $1000-1400, on Q1 beat and 1M+ delivery outlook.

My 2020 $TSLA price target was $2000 pre-split ($400 post split). For 2021, I’m targeting $1240 with 50% probability and 80% it’s between 1000-1400. I believe there’s a 10-15% chance it ends the year 1600-2000.

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Increasing my 2021 end of year $1600-2000 PT probability to 25-35% with the recent Q1 massive beat and 1m+ deliveries increasingly likely. 50% between $1000-1400 and <15% it's below $1000


Summary: Setup for a delivery beat vs lowered expectations; TSLA could deliver 320k+ in Q1.

@TeslaAndDoge With expectations being lowered due to the Shanghai closure (which might have near-zero impact on Q1 deliveries), there's a setup for a big beat here. I think we delivery sub 315k but I wouldn't put it past $TSLA to deliver 320k+


Summary: Expects TSLA downside move to continue into Q4 earnings print, fueled by margin calls.

@EmmetPeppers @micki_bruin Without a doubt. $TSLA had traders pile on during the long runs, can happen for the short runs too. Margin calls are blood in the water. Likely continues into Q4 print

@micki_bruin This feels like it could be part of it


Still holding 1/2 my puts I've had for 70+ days. I still expect a disaster call w/o Drew/Zach fwiw.

Summary: Still holds TSLA puts; expects further downside toward $135–$150 range, anticipates a bad earnings call.

If you weren't short $TSLA before this week, I'd probably avoid opening. IV is sky high and it's already -40% YTD. I can see a $150 retest in the next week or so based on technicals.

On the contrary, I can see ~$135 this week as well. Both of these price ranges are priced into weekly options.

Still holding 1/2 my puts I've had for 70+ days. I may consider opening some offsetting puts to hedge upside.

If you do open a position, always consider spreading to maximize ROI in a high IV env.

I still expect a disaster call w/o Drew/Zach fwiw.


Long here too. Looking at 830-1000 by August.

Summary: Long NVDA with $830–$1000 price target by August.

@saxena_puru Long here too. I projected 5.15 EPS within 0.01. Looking at 830-1000 by August.

NVIDIA Q4 results -

Q1 revenue guidance $24b (plus or minus 2%)

I'm long $NVDA https://t.co/nxUvTj9yNj


Summary: TSLA EPS consensus of $2.85 is too high; expects it to fall to $1.60–$2.20, implying downside to estimates and stock.

@garyblack00 $2.85 EPS too high. Needs to drop to 1.60-2.20 range.

Our view on $TSLA is that investors will not get excited about the 8/8 robotaxi unveil until TSLA can provide assurance FSD will be 99.99% intervention free, and that TSLA is prepared to assume liability for injury or damages to appease regulators tasked with granting robotaxi https://t.co/RT2LhnLKRV


Summary: Long PLTR via Jan 2026 30c's; expects rally to ~$25 if price holds above $20.30 fib channel.

Rolled my Feb 9 18.50c's (took 15% profits in 1 day) into Jan 2026 30c's for $PLTR - hedges my upside by roughly 50% but accounts for some dramatic swings likely from now until EOY. I still expect a rally to ~$25 if it holds above $20.30 fib channel


Summary: Bought PLTR January $30 calls; bullish bet on Palantir.

@pakpakchicken Just bought PLTR Jan 30c’s

Just sold $pltr puts ( bullish move )

5.4% easy money https://t.co/uVEoRAAAyv


Summary: Expects TSLA down 5–10% tomorrow on Karpathy not returning news.

@wholemars @elonmusk @elonmusk had to have known months ago - yet he still reaffirmed FSD by EOY. Possible offsetting announcement incoming from @tesla or @aelluswamy ? Although market will surely not like this (-5 to -10% % tmr in cards).


Summary: Bearish TSLA near-term; suggests selling and rebuying around $150 or hedging through 2024 demand pocket.

@teslashanghai Come to peace with the fact that 2024 will be a demand pocket year. Either sell and buy back around $150 or just hedge

Tesla needs a $25k car, and it should be released for immediate delivery. Hoping to get more information about 25k car and FSD during the earnings call. Or,we done.  $TSLA


Summary: Long NVDA ($2000 pre-split by 2027-28) and PLTR as AI software proxy; short TSLA on demand-gap thesis, actively trading around core positions.

Some people have been asking for my positioning. It hasn't changed for 3 months.

Long $NVDA
Long $PLTR
Short $TSLA

The rotation from $TSLA in Mag7 into $NVDA was only one thesis. $TSLA is in a demand-gap year. I've been saying this for 9+ months. I closed my $TSLA shares I bought sub $40 from 2015-2020 in 2022 for an avg above $280 if you include my hedging profits.

$NVDA, even in a recession or high int. rate env, will flourish. The risk/reward, forward PE or PEG setup is not comparable.

$PLTR is my AI proxy on the software level. Yes, I know $NVDA has CUDA and NIMMs.

Hope for the best for $TSLA as a company, but also be prudent when it comes to your money.

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Closed half my $TSLA short position (puts) today at $150. I got these originally above $200.

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Closed my remaining $TSLA short position (puts) yesterday and today around 160.

I think the bottom isn't in yet (at least for 2024), but near-term is skewed to the upside.

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Taking profits off $NVDA, within 5% of my $1200 price target for 2024. Going to be some wild swing going into the 10:1 split. Keeping a close watch for re-entry

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Back in today. I expect to sell again before the split but we’ll see what happens. TSM is a good proxy hedge to NVDA if you can’t write calls.

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Once again taking chips off table for $NVDA. My end of year 2024 PT is $1400 but $1200 was my original target.

I can see it rallying to 1265-1380 though. Still super bullish. $2000 pre-split PT by 2027-28 (around $5T).

Will monitor for re-entry again.

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Back in at about 50% exposure - lower entry than when I sold.

Increasingly likely we get to 1350-1400 pre-split range in June. Then I'd expect a correction to 1000-1100 but still ending the year around 120-150 range post-split

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$1400 on the dot. Closed my positions earlier between $134-140.


$PLTR is my AI proxy on the software level


$TSLA is in a demand-gap year. I've been saying this for 9+ months


Summary: Bullish TSLA into Aug 8 robotaxi reveal; FSD monetization via leasing/financing seen as catalyst over next 5 months.

Double plot twist. Looks like the Reuters article had some merit. It was suspicious that Elon did not out-right deny the article in its entirety.

M2 delay/scrap, key brass departure, FSD monthly price drop all point to one outcome. Robotaxi beta reveal Aug 8 with a car w/o a steering wheel. Likely some interesting leasing/financing options baked into FSD (which will obviously be a must-have). I would bet money that the engineers were blindsided by Aug 8 in both China/US $TSLA offices. Aug 8 (as Elon pointed out) is 8/8 and 8 is a significant number among Chinese culture. Yet, there's no significant presence of FSD in China due to regulatory hurdles.

Going to be a choppy and pivotal next 5 months.

We can confirm that the "Tesla Model 2" or "$25,000 Tesla" is indeed scrapped for now.

Elon denied the original report from Reuters presumably because they mentioned the words "canceled" and "scrapped" and you can argue that it is "postponed" instead, but effectively, nothing is


Summary: Bullish PLTR: analogizes to TSLA's 2019 Model 3 ramp + profit inflection as a durable growth catalyst.

@farzyness $PLTR reminds me of $TSLA in 2019 with the model 3 ramp and profit inflection

I think $PLTR has just turned a corner.

They have a very strong balance sheet with $2.5B in cash, ~$800M in TOTAL liabilities, and is now profitable.

What is Palantir's long term TAM? How fast can they scale?  Can their competitors displace them?


$TSLA fast tracking to $135 with this news. Might even happen before earnings.

Summary: Bearish TSLA to $135 on Model Y price cuts; expects the drop before earnings.

BREAKING: Tesla has dropped all Model Y trim prices in the U.S. by $2,000.

• Model Y RWD: $42,990 (from $44,990)
• Model Y Long Range: $47,990 (from $49,990)
• Model Y Performance: $51,490 (from $53,4900) https://t.co/zEd17otmKp


Summary: TSLA long at the $146 gap level.

I AM STILL NOT A BUYER OF TESLA HERE AFTER THIS 40% CRASH

TESLA NEEDS TO DROP ANOTHER 50% + TO GET ME INTERESTED

$TSLA https://t.co/D44gw0efXm


It's clear '24/25 EPS multiples are currently still too high despite the stock decline

Summary: TSLA '24/25 EPS multiples still too high vs other growth megacaps; bearish valuation stance despite recent stock decline.

Likely all accurate takes Gary. It’s clear ‘24/25 EPS multiples are currently still too high despite the stock decline (especially when compared to other growth megacaps).

Question: if mgmt declares vol reductions and price stability over price cuts, how do you think WS reacts? I’m uncertain since FSD 12 is showing promise, then Tesla should maximize vol for FSD install base

With one week left in 1Q, there’s risk $TSLA 1Q volumes come in well below 1Q consensus ests which stood at 468K this morning.  My 1Q estimate is 425K which is roughly flat with 2023 1Q of 423K. TSLA will likely send out their IR-compiled summary Fri or Sat and report 1Q volumes https://t.co/2HczCbLPY5


Summary: Bullish TSLA: FSD revenue recognition expected to be high this quarter.

@Tesla Interesting timing for this video. $TSLA FSD revenue recognition gunna be high this Q

Tesla Full Self-Driving capability demo in Austin

FSD capability features use vision neural networks to perceive & understand the world, just like humans do.

Via our unique fleet learning approach, we are able to collect anonymized data from our vehicles—meaning the neural https://t.co/CWAS5h0jGH


Summary: Short AAPL: hit resistance at ~191 (50 SMA + cloud + fib confluence), expects more downside within cloud.

This is $AAPL on the daily chart. It hit strong resistance at ~191 where the 50 SMA + cloud resistance sit. Additionally, there's confluence of the 2 key fib channel crossovers (white and yellow dotted lines). Expected move is more downside within cloud until it breaks above https://t.co/6w7fb7O309

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Still stuck within the daily cloud https://t.co/C4Sok8BGkZ


Summary: Bullish TSLA to new all-time highs in 2025-26 on $25K car news as mega catalyst.

@DoctorJack16 Great interview and great news. This is the first unexpected + undisputable mega bullish news I've heard from Elon in a while. I think $TSLA hits new highs in 2025-26

I just finished watching the interview by Sandy Munro of Elon Musk.

I was pleasantly surprised to hear that the $25K car is already very far along & that it will be made in Texas first because Mexico would have taken too long.  I'd be surprised if it is not released by the end


Summary: Expects TLT to fall to $75 bottom over the next 6–12 months.

@KobeissiLetter 75 bottom for next 6-12 months imo

Treasury bond tracking ETF, $TLT, is now seeing its highest volume on record.

There were an average of ~32 million shares traded PER DAY in September 2023.

Today alone, we have seen 60 million+ shares traded.

To put this in perspective, even in March 2020, daily average volume https://t.co/Jm2TkpNubj


On a scale of 1-10, this is a 0. China is a major problem for Tesla. Xiaomi SU7 sells 100k+ in ~60 hours. It's a M3 killer. There are multiple of potential MY killers coming too. Besides FSD, the list of upside is short and thin.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: disastrous Q1, China market under threat from Xiaomi SU7 and other competitors, upside list short and thin.

Surprised you didn't call this a black eye print Dan. On a scale of 1-10, this is a 0. China is a major problem for Tesla. Xiaomi SU7 sells 100k+ in ~60 hours. It's a M3 killer. There are multiple of potential MY killers coming  too.

I hope you take a realistic approach to this on @squawkstreet so retail investors aren't mislead. Besides FSD, the list of upside is short and thin.

While anticipating a bad 1Q, this was an unmitigated disaster 1Q that is hard to explain away. We view this as a seminal moment in the Tesla story for Musk to either turn this around and reverse the black eye 1Q.  Otherwise darker days ahead. Will discuss on @SquawkStreet 👇


Summary: Long BABA into earnings; inverse H&S setup targets $148 in 2025, needs convincing break above $88.

@gurgavin $BABA earnings tmr could be the breakout you've been waiting for. The inverse head/shoulders setup is suggesting $148 by sometime 2025. Need to convincingly breach $88

SHUTTING UP AND WAITING IS THE NAME OF THE GAME

NOT SURE WHY ALMOST EVERYONE HERE IS OBSESSED WILL MAKING MULTIPLE TRADES EVERY SINGLE DAY / WEEK


Expecting $TSLA to test 1700 again by Monday and 1850 by EOW

Summary: Expects TSLA to test 1700 by Monday and 1850 by end of week.


China is a serious problem. Most retail have 0 clue what's going on there. I have family/friends there. It ain't good for $TSLA

Summary: Bearish TSLA on deteriorating China business situation that retail investors are underestimating.

@EmmetPeppers @TeslaLarry You’re dead on Emmet. China is a serious problem. Most retail have 0 clue what’s going on there. I have family/friends there. It ain’t good for $TSLA

@TeslaLarry thanks Larry, this is the one addendum I think we need to pay careful attention to over the next several weeks, Tesla China business may be on thin ice
https://t.co/SPwbC7hB1f


Summary: Author's own FY24 EPS estimate ~$2 is well below consensus ~$2.70; bearish implied on earnings power.

@garyblack00 $2.70 '24 EPS is still too high. I'm already closer to $2. Need FSD subscription/take-rate to significantly ramp to justify 2.70 imo

Tonight I expect $TSLA analysts to reduce FY’24 adj EPS to ~$2.70 (from $2.93) and FY’25 adj EPS to ~$3.60 (from $3.93).  There’s no way to sugarcoat 1Q deliveries as anything but negative. M-Y inventories are at an ATH and TSLA FG inventories are now at 29 DIO vs 15 in 4Q. https://t.co/2wRt33SPg6


Summary: Implies Jonas's TSLA PE estimates are too low, suggesting bullish view on TSLA earnings trajectory beyond 2022.

@garyblack00 His PE estimates beyond 2022 are hilariously low

MS’ Jonas reiterated his $1,300 $TSLA PT, but adjusted the value components. Jonas lowered his FY’22 vols and auto GM %, but raised his 2022 EPS ests (lower SG&A) and lowered 2023 ests. He raised WACC from 8.0% to 8.5%. Jonas believes FSD L4/L5 at scale is at least a decade away. https://t.co/Ez6ohkO7Og


Buying $AAPL at 181.80 today. Decent chunk. I expect it to remain above the weekly/monthly ichi clouds ~178

Summary: Buying AAPL at $181.80, expects price to hold above ~$178 ichi cloud support on weekly/monthly charts.

Buying $AAPL at 181.80 today. Decent chunk. Bought each dip below $182 past 2 months for good gains. Am aware of a potential close below 200sma on daily. Risk/reward is solid here but will monitor for a breakdown and possibly hedge with covered calls.

I expect it to remain above the weekly/monthly ichi clouds ~178

Image is the monthly chart with fib channels


Summary: Endorses $300 post-split NVDA target within 3-4 months.

@TickerSymbolYOU Same. I expect it in the next 3-4 months. Will be nice to have more flexibility when writing NVDA covered calls

My current $NVDA price target is $300

After a 4 for 1 split


Summary: Targets TSLA -10% to the .236 Fibonacci retracement level by tomorrow.

$TSLA -10% tmr would put it exactly at the .236 fib retrace https://t.co/6MuuuUkYUF

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🎯 https://t.co/DticmILREY


Summary: Bearish TSLA: EPS will miss $4/share for 2024; consensus well below $4 and declining.

@sspencer_smb @garyblack00 Better than 50/50? Definitely taking under on that. Consensus is significantly below $4 EPS and falling

@garyblack00 It is better than 50/50 that Tesla will print $4/sh for 2024. Assuming the market remains strong TSLA will likely hit your price target in q4.


I still expect a -5-10% drop on Apr 2 ... I expect $135-146 before earnings on Apr 17 ... If the print is sub 423k, I expect ~157 as the likely near-term low until earnings. The next low targets would be ~146 and ~135

Summary: Short TSLA: expects -5-10% drop on Apr 2 delivery print, with downside targets of $135-157 before Apr 17 earnings.

Today's $TSLA movement (7%+ at high) from bullish FSD news sets up an interesting inverse h/s pattern going into Apr 2 delivery print. I expected ~165 into the print, but this bumps my expectation up to ~171-175.

I still expect a -5-10% drop on Apr 2 although unsure how much bad news is priced in (let's see company compiled results hopefully by Thursday). A -10% drop from $177 would be $160 and a potential double bottom bounce despite potential negative YoY print being unequivocally bad news. Otherwise, I expect $135-146 before earnings on Apr 17 with a small chance of a short squeeze going to ~195-200 (as the inverse h/s pattern suggests)

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$TSLA ended up collapsing intraday, closing within several bearish patterns + printing a shooting star candle (bearish) + below 20 daily sma https://t.co/vg7Q6zxx22

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Looks like 171-175 will be accurate into the print as predicted. If the print is sub 423k, I expect ~157 as the likely near-term low until earnings. The next low targets would be ~146 and ~135


Summary: Long TSLA into 2026+; $108 is great entry with 2-3x potential despite near-term headwinds.

@gmpbev @TSLAFanMtl $150 is good, closer to $108 is great. Still a bad year+ outlook so if you can hold into 2026+ should be solid 2-3x potential


Summary: Expects TSLA to break below a key trendline from the COVID high that is currently being tested.

Haven't posted my $TSLA charts in a while but things are going exactly as predicted for the past 8 months. Here's a simple key trendline from covid high that is being tested right now. I expect it to break soon. https://t.co/IWAyTQ7Q49


NVDA is going to continue separating itself to the upside from the AI pack over the next few months. Fundamentally, $NVDA still has the most appealing forward PE at my 40x '25 $35 EPS. I expect $NVDA to outperform for the foreseeable future

Summary: Long NVDA to outperform AI peers over coming months; most appealing forward PE at 40x 2025 $35 EPS.

Technically, it looks like $NVDA is going to continue separating itself to the upside from the AI pack ( $AMD $SMCI $ARM $TSM $PLTR etc.) over the next few months. Fundamentally, $NVDA still has the most appealing forward PE at my 40x '25 $35 EPS. All AI-related boats may rise with the tide but I expect $NVDA to outperform for the foreseeable future

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So it begins (it would seem) https://t.co/YOpLsvevZI


Summary: Any TSLA dip from Elon's tax-driven selling is a non-fundamental buying opportunity.

@SawyerMerritt True. Non-fundamental dip is just a buying opportunity.

If Elon has to sell to pay taxes & or doesn't want more loans, I support his decision to sell. Honestly, if he does sell & the stock dips, It allows those with high conviction in Tesla to buy more $TSLA at a cheaper price. It's true we've all made a lot of $$ cuz of Elon.

1/2


Summary: Robotaxi unveil on 8/8 seen as bullish catalyst for Tesla.

First bullish event to look forward to in quite some time. I wonder if the robotaxi app (likely connected to the Tesla app) will allow for any Tesla owner to participate - and if not, interested to see how soon that’ll happen


Summary: Charts indicate NVDA rally has further upside ahead.

$NVDA - my charts tell me this rally isn't over


Summary: Bearish TSLA as NVDA's digital-twin simulation erodes its real-world data moat; bullish NVDA as the gap to autonomy closes fast.

I’ve said for 12+ months that $NVDA poses a threat to $TSLA (one of the reasons why I trimmed/hedged before selling). Today’s #GTC2024 reaffirmed my suspicions that the path to autonomous driving and robotics will not be as obvious as it once seemed due to digital twin sims circumventing $TSLA real-world data trove advantage (yes I know Tesla does sims too). I never thought Waymo Cruise etc. would beat Tesla to autonomy but worried instead about a visually trained model from $NVDA or someone similar. Yes $NVDA is currently far behind but that gap might be closing fast


Summary: Bullish NVDA; continues beating high bars, whisper numbers, and guidance.

$SPY SP500 is now the SP1 with $NVDA continuing to crush high bars, whisper numbers and guidance


It looks like it's going to break the double-bottom setup tomorrow/this week which would remove one of the two remaining major bullish reversal patterns against 6+ bearish patterns currently formed/forming. I did not expect movement sub-160 before earnings, but that has changed quickly after today's revelations.

Summary: Bearish TSLA into earnings: double-bottom setup breaking, 6+ bearish patterns forming, now expects sub-160 move before the report.

$TSLA charts at a pivotal intersection a week before earnings. It looks like it's going to break the double-bottom setup tomorrow/this week which would remove one of the two remaining major bullish reversal patterns against 6+ bearish patterns currently formed/forming.

The street knows this layoff news is to offset a likely poor report next week. I did not expect movement sub-160 before earnings, but that has changed quickly after today's revelations.


Summary: Re-entered short TSLA at ~$177 based on trendline resistance + Ichimoku; expects price capped below $183 into earnings.

$TSLA retail wondering why is the stock back above it's pre-delivery print? Technicals.

There's many at play, but I'll keep it simple. On the left is a key trendline from 2020 pre-covid peak being re-tested right now at $177. It coincided with 3 other indications at 177 to prompt a sharp, clean rejection.

On the right is the 4h ichi clouds which have been pivotal the past month. You can see the white trendline here too.

I re-entered my short (closed most of it at 163 for a nice profit). I do not expect movement above $183 into earnings. If price does break 183 convincingly, I'll re-assess.


Summary: Values Nvidia at $1000–1200 on 50–60x multiple; bullish on sustained revenue and earnings growth.

@bastion_manager @GregCrennan Yep. Company is worth $1000-1200 on a 50-60x multiple which isn't absurd considering its revenue and earnings growth

@GregCrennan Nvidia has a forward P/E of 35x. The company does not even rank in the top 20% of the most expensive by this measure. https://t.co/A8hbjtQkaV


Summary: Leaning bullish on PLTR, watching NVDA as a correlated signal.

@cryptocantoncat Good points. I am leaning bullish, waiting to see what $NVDA does due to high correlation w/ $PLTR


Summary: Bear flag on NVDA points to $320 target where the earnings gap sits; implied bearish.

@TrendSpider This bear flag suggests $320 target which is exactly where the gap from earnings sits

$NVDA Hard to ignore this potential bear flag forming just below previous channel support on NVIDIA. 🐻🚩 https://t.co/GFIn6I3T97


Summary: Endorses long NVDA / short TSLA pair trade; TSLA's P/E premium vs NVDA unjustified given profit divergence.

@freshjiva Exactly why option flow is heavily long $NVDA and short $TSLA - it’s obvious for this reason among others

why does $tsla deserve a 50% premium price-to-earnings multiple to $nvda (54x vs 36x)? the latter just quintupled net profit over the past year while the former's went down -28%, and that divergence is likely to continue in 2024. https://t.co/q6X5kUWVkT


short $TSLA - it's obvious for this reason among others


Summary: Bullish TSLA on future upsell potential via software updates and Full Self Driving monetization.

@aija_tweet Garbage content by CNBC. Profitability is not the be-all-end-all of an EV market still in its infancy. Win the market then focus on unit economics. There are MANY ways for $TSLA to up sell new and existing users with future software updates *cough Full Self Driving*

All 4 of these panelists along with CNBC as a whole should be sued for slander and conflict of interest.

Blatant stock manipulation. At least one of them holds a sizable $tsla short position and uses this platform to misinform investors. It’s criminal. https://t.co/4jfAtmvH6V


Summary: Bought PLTR near session low; wrote covered calls against the position.

Bought a decent chunk of $PLTR today near session low and wrote weekly 18.50c's


Summary: Bearish GPRO: camera-only business with no serious innovation points to continued decline.

$gpro stock tanks and this is surprising, because why? it's in the camera business, we all know how this will end without serious innovation


I've said weeks ago that $165 into Q1 delivery print April 2 is most likely and that still holds true today. We'll see some sharp bounces but the destination to $108 looks increasingly likely by EOY

Summary: Short TSLA: $165 target into Apr 2 delivery print, then $108 by EOY on expected disastrous Q1 deliveries and no rate cuts in H1 2024.

My past 4 large $TSLA plays since July 2023 have been scary accurate. I predicted the move up to 290 and down to 220 before the recent 252-265 rally and fast move down to 170-180 we just saw. This is the result of months of research and planning.

Next, I expect a move up to 206-220 the next ~2 weeks and then a large move down into Q1 delivery print Apr 2 and earnings Apr 17.

This is the culmination of TA, option flow, dark pool prints and fundamentals. I may adjust my projections due to unforeseen news/patterns and will update them here. Not financial advice.

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Almost 4 weeks later: $TSLA touched $206 then sold off exactly as I predicted. I’ve said weeks ago that $165 into Q1 delivery print April 2 is most likely and that still holds true today. We’ll see some sharp bounces but the destination to $108 looks increasingly likely by EOY https://t.co/xw98WC0kqm

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The more I look at $TSLA and a potential disastrous Q1 deliveries print Apr 2, the more I see ~$135 as an increasingly likely target (~30-50% chance) as I expect ~$167 into the print. $TSLA typically moves 5-10% on delivery prints, so -10% would be ~$150 (my previous target) - however, this print has the potential to cause a massive drop of -15-20% due to data I'm seeing of a likely large miss (40k+ shortfall) even after the street has reduced estimates significantly. This drop could happen in 1-day, but potentially over a few days.

Tesla ex-shutdowns has never had a YoY delivery decline. If this happens, it will not digest well among WS + MSM. $108 might come sooner than I expected (which was closer to Q3-Q4). Also, investors cheering for rate cuts have been very quiet lately. I did not expect any cuts 1H 2024 6 months ago and still do not today. Powell likely reaffirms a hawkish stance tomorrow.

On the contrary, FSD v12 has been promising and is a x-factor to the upside but I doubt it can fully offset deliv/earnings material decline.

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Short term price movement is always tough, but here's my last prediction into Q4 earnings
https://t.co/CgNCZjhqRI


Summary: TSLA earnings beat was stronger than peers; implied bullish on durable strength.

@DivesTech Let’s not forget $TSLA crushing earnings relatively better than any of the above

Let’s think about the narrative so far in tech; Netflix a disaster followed by robust Microsoft and Qualcomm numbers and a much better than feared Facebook print. Alphabet mixed but overall fine. Valuations in tech are so oversold that the Meta reaction AH so dramatic positive


Summary: Bearish TSLA: Wyckoff distribution + rising wedge breakdown; expects bounce into earnings then next leg down (possible c-wave).

I called the gap fill around $290 last year and $260 recently. 2024 fundamentals aren't great and it's a demand gap year. You were saying $300+ not long ago, but your charts are off. Wyckoff distribution from a bear bat + rising weekly wedge. Not much to be bullish about technically or fundamentally rn. We just hit the weekly cloud bottom so a bounce into earnings is likely, then next leg down (possible c-wave)

$TSLA Hearing some of my bearish friends targeting that 144.43 gap.

Gulp….

That would be disastrous for bulls.


Summary: Near-term bearish on TSLA: Q3 deliveries miss will break lower support; ATH resistance holds until 2024.

@TrendSpider Q3 deliveries likely short by 10k+ estimates, that'll break the lower support. I'm a bull but don't see us breaking above that ATH resistance until 2024

$TSLA Extremely well-defined support and resistance zones for Tesla heading into Q4...

Will we see one break before year end? ⚡ https://t.co/Hz2kMNOvoT


Summary: Wyckoff distribution + MACD crossovers signal 1-3 month decline across SPY, QQQ, TSLA, NVDA, PLTR; TSLA distribution near fulfillment.

Seeing Wyckoff on $SPY $QQQ and $TSLA + MACD crossovers on $SPY $QQQ $VIX $DXY.. might be a bumpy ride down for 1-3 months

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I expect $TSLA to hit 258-260 before moving down if this pattern fulfills

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add $NVDA and $PLTR to this list https://t.co/NT5RyDBpAr

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Month later update: this is playing out textbook. We are currently in phase D of Wyckoff distribution. I expect a bounce to $243-247 for $TSLA before earnings and a correction down to ~207 quickly after (C-wave)

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As I expected, textbook Wyckoff has played out. I expected a rebound Phase D before earnings to ~243 but it looks like we're into Phase E https://t.co/B9GxIs4wn4

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$TSLA wyckoff distribution nearing/at fulfillment https://t.co/5viGquc82C


$TSLA wyckoff distribution nearing/at fulfillment


it's forming a huge bear flag which points to $155 and $108-123

Summary: Bearish TSLA: bear flag formation targets $155 then $108–123.

@SawyerMerritt No.. it’s forming a huge bear flag which points to $155 and $108-123

Jim Cramer on $TSLA: It does feel like there is some big portfolio manager making a stand and not letting it go any lower; There could be a Cathie Wood imitator out there buying." https://t.co/heRkcyNs2Q


Summary: Advises holding TSLA LEAPS; implied long with recovery expected over time.

@yiffzer @pakpakchicken You have plenty of time - hold

@pakpakchicken I’ve got $650 strike 2023 LEAPS bought when $TSLA was at $850. It’s lost 50% of its value since the “crash”. Given the market fear of interest rates rising, it is likely that Tesla may not see its former price for a long while. What would you do?


Summary: Bullish NVDA; chip demand stays higher for longer over the next 2 years.

@munster_gene Here’s the trend for the last 2 years and next 2 years. Higher for longer. Rates and chips.

Despite shares of $NVDA being down slightly today, there's more good news for the company. CNBC is reporting that Musk is directing Nvidia chips away from $TSLA (used for FSD training) to X and xAI. What jumps out to me is huge companies continue to fight over Nvidia chips, which


Summary: Short TSLA to $180-207 EOY on Diamond Top pattern confirmation and sub-450K delivery expectations.

@garyblack00 @TroyTeslike @MartinViecha Yup. Sub 450k very likely. $TSLA unfortunately looking downward to $180-207 by EOY with Diamond Top pattern confirmation

Everyone should already know this. Both @TroyTeslike and I have been talking about this for weeks (my $TSLA 3Q deliveries est 445K vs WS at 462K) due to lack of M-3 inventory in China in front of M-3 Highland deliveries start in Oct. @MartinViecha https://t.co/rLWxxwCBl0


Summary: Bearish TSLA: parent's $2.5T valuation ex-AI/robotics is a stretch even at above-guidance growth; current $1.5T already generous.

@CuriousPejjy 2.5T without AI or robotics at current growth rates, even increased beyond management guidance, would be a stretch for $1.5T

$TSLA in 2028:

Revenue: $330B
Net Income GAAP: $50B
P/E: 50
Market cap: $2.5T
Stock price: $800

This EST doesn't include FSD or BOTS. Purely vehicles & energy.

If to include FSD, double net income GAAP EASILY while revenues would be ~35% more (FSD is 60%+ gross profit). Market


Summary: Bullish TSLA: traders/HFs buying ahead of the split + bullish cup-and-handle pattern forming.

@garyblack00 I know you aren’t one for technicals Gary, but traders and HFs will also pile in to front the split and play the bullish cup and handle forming

Hedge fund 13F filings are due today. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more new $TSLA positions beside Soros Fund Mgmt ($20M), given huge YTD positive revisions, several catalysts, and cheap valuation on FY’23 EPS (38.7x my FY’23 EPS of $24).


I've extended my price target for 2H 2025 to $1280

Summary: Raises NVDA PT to $1,280 by 2H 2025, implying largest-company-in-world status.

Agreed. $NVDA also hard for non-tech to understand the core value prop of the company and AI growth waves and will look like a 'bubble' despite booming fundamentals. I expect $1000 by 2H 2025

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Looks like I was too conservative. Underestimated WS but happily captured excessive gains during the past 3-week run up. I’ve extended my price target for 2H 2025 to $1280 (yes, the largest company in the world)


Summary: TSLA likely tests $740 resistance / 50-day MA next week; bullish short-term price call.

@garyblack00 Good chance it tests resistance at 740 for the 50 day MA next week

Monday thoughts:  $TSLA huge 1Q delivs beat (+7% vs Street) will likely be partially offset by concerns about higher 10-yr Treas ylds (1.72% +5.1 bp), following today’s strong March employment results. Net, I still believe $TSLA can move 5-10% higher next week ($695-$725). https://t.co/Wo0D4FlTwW


Summary: Long NVDA with $1200+ price target this year and anticipated 4:1 stock split in summer or Q3.

$NVDA entry explained. A bearish pennant was canceled (yellow) and formed a bull flag (white) into a bull pennant (blue). I bought a chunk of shares at $843.80 (green pin). Both bullish patterns reached their price targets the next day.

I do expect chop between 890-910 as the bull pennant price target was fulfilled quickly today.

Fundamentally, I believe the stock is worth north of $1200 this year and will split this summer or Q3 at 4:1 (like last time).

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Fun to revisit old thoughts, this one nailed it. Predicted the split (not 4:1 though) and the $1200 price target


Summary: Record-high TSLA global inventory (~75k units) heading into Q2 end implies bearish delivery/demand pressure.

Global $TSLA inventory levels have never been this high - especially going into quarter end.

Historically, we can apply around ~6x the numbers shown for more accurate levels. That puts inventory globally around 75k going into Q2. https://t.co/wbVX2oErU4


Summary: Holds a long position in PLTR, purchased at $7.88.

@pakpakchicken Any fundamental/technical reasoning to this purchase? I grabbed some at $7.88

$300k buy order $pltr https://t.co/uf8ESIWb9w


Summary: Bearish TSLA; expects revisit below $250 if margins disappoint institutional investors this week.

@dana_marlane Unlikely. Fundamentals are on deck this week and unless margins appease inst investors, we're going to revisit sub-250 soon. From a TA standpoint, your supporting trendline seems a bit contrived, try using fib channels on your log chart - that better explains the movement imo

Bears are going to murder me for this, but $TSLA is about to explode higher. https://t.co/CBuuGH6caP


Summary: Long Unity Software, bought at $35.69, will add more at $28-33; bullish technical setup into earnings.

@cryptocantoncat Bought $U at $35.69 ytday - will buy more around 28-33. 5th wave + Descending wedge + potential H/S likely still some chop until earnings.


Summary: Bearish TSLA (Model 3 losing China share to Xiaomi SU7) and AAPL (scrapped EV project unable to compete with Xiaomi).

Best English review of the Xiaomi SU7 I’ve seen yet. This is likely the reason why $AAPL scrapped their Project Titan. They knew what Xiaomi was releasing and couldn’t come close to competing on specs, value or software. Also, this seems like an obvious $TSLA Model 3 killer in China. The reservation numbers speak for themselves. 100000+ resos in 72 hours   https://t.co/41kkYA5pfN


Summary: Adds to bullish Tesla thesis: 1-2 more gigafactory announcements plus existing factory expansions ahead.

@heydave7 5. 1-2 more gigafactory plans announced and existing factory expansion plans underway

Tesla's next few years of growth will be bonkers...

1. Austin/Berlin factories will come online and ramp (in addition to Fremont/Shanghai expansion)

2. Cybertruck & Semi start deliveries

3. $25k gen car announced

4. Possible first Robotaxi deployments


Expecting C-wave to ~207-213 by early Feb … I still expect $147 gap to fill in 2024

Summary: Bearish TSLA: expects C-wave drop to ~207-213 by early Feb and $147 gap fill in 2024, based on bear bat, Wyckoff distribution, and Elliott wave count.

$TSLA hit my 258 target within a day. There's several strong technical forces (bear bat, wyckoff, ATH trendline) around here that can send the stock much lower into Q4 delivery/earnings print. Long-term holders can do nothing or hedge by selling calls/buying puts

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$TSLA 4h chart showing wyckoff distribution https://t.co/KHOS1UL1ng

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$TSLA bearish bat pattern if this point D is the top into q4 delivery print https://t.co/wlb8avnwP9

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With $TSLA likely completing the 5th wave + bear bat (above) and Wyckoff distribution, looking for a bounce around 240-244 to form the A correction wave before hitting ~213 C-wave in January unless Q4 deliveries surprise to upside https://t.co/JFPcNwpUXO

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Looks like the bounce will happen around 230-235 instead (around where we are now). That would complete the A-wave into a B-wave bounce into Jan 24 earnings. Expecting C-wave to ~207-213 by early Feb https://t.co/6IGgnPCkvV

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Looking back ~30 days, these patterns above have all fulfilled very accurately. Called a potential top at $414 in 2021 and 2022-23 highs around 265-300. More difficult to call a bottom (didn't expect $101) but I still expect $147 gap to fill in 2024 $TSLA


Tesla has throttled output at Berlin and Texas due to 4680 slow ramp + weakened demand. 2024 looking like a demand gap year. Rates won't fall as fast as people expect - and if they do, it's because larger recession issues looming

Summary: Bearish TSLA: throttled output, 4680 ramp issues, weakened demand, 2024 demand gap year, rates staying higher or recession risk.

@EdwardDiGi @ItsJso @garyblack00 @TSLAFanMtl @TroyTeslike Many don’t realize that Tesla has throttled output at Berlin and Texas due to 4680 slow ramp + weakened demand. Also as Troy pointed out. 2024 looking like a demand gap year. Rates won’t fall as fast as people expect - and if they do, it’s because larger recession issues looming

@ItsJso @garyblack00 @TSLAFanMtl @TroyTeslike Macro is changing for the worst.. 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 are cancelling many BEVs incentive. So @TroyTeslike is right I guess


Summary: Short thesis reinforced by $2.3M put sweep; expects TSLA to drop to ~$180 within ~2 weeks before potential reversal setup.

Dec 1 2022 - a similar pattern forming (I know that's when Elon was selling which amplified the sell off). I expect $180 within the next ~2 weeks to form a potential inverse head/shoulder or diamond bottom setup going into end of Feb https://t.co/MsV5GFYCAV

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Adding to the short thesis for next week, an extremely large $2.3m put sweep above ask around 193 (top of vwap) https://t.co/sMI2Vf3DBs


Time for the street to revise those 1.2 - 1.3m annual estimates to 1.5 - 1.7m

Summary: Bullish TSLA; beat delivery numbers warrant upward revision of annual estimates to 1.5-1.7M from 1.2-1.3M.

Tesla just announced its 4Q delivery number which beat even the bull case whisper number on the Street. This was a “trophy case” quarter for Musk & Co. with massive momentum moving into 2022. 309k deliveries vs. the Street's 266k and bull case whisper numbers in the 275k range.


Added more $TSLA today at $588 - I think the sell off is over

Summary: Added to TSLA at $588; believes selloff is over, bullish into ARK PT update.

Added more $TSLA today at $588 - @ARKInvest likely to publish new PT for $TSLA afterhours today, or sometime next week (Cathie appearing on CNBC Monday 3pm EST). I think the sell off is over, but there's still a good chance we test 500


Rather bet on the future NVDA we haven't seen with the prospect of AI than the past NVDA. R/r is skewed in favor of the former.

Summary: Risk/reward skewed to the upside for NVDA on AI-driven future growth prospects.

@VladTheImputer @saxena_puru Rather bet on the future NVDA we haven’t seen with the prospect of AI than the past NVDA. R/r is skewed in favor of the former.

@mrwgreig @saxena_puru As opposed to a future we have seen?


Summary: Skeptical of the RSI long entry; warns TSLA goes lower without a reversal pattern forming.

@TrendSpider Better hope for another inverse HS setup or diamond bottom or else it’s going lower this time

This $TSLA strategy enters long when daily RSI closes back above 30 after a previous close below.  It then exits 15 candles later.

Over the last two years:

✅ +62% total return vs -31.6% buy & hold
✅ +7.17% average return per trade

Just took another entry on Thursday. https://t.co/oLVXQhBjsz


Summary: Bullish NVDA: enormous upside, sub-40 forward PE, top retail stock by value.

@TSLAFanMtl Upside is enormous and forward PE reasonable (sub 40). Replaced $TSLA as top traded stock by value and #1 among retail. Not surprising.

Every $NVDA dip is ferociously consumed.


Summary: Long LULU at ~$360; oversold -30% with multiple technical support levels in the 320-360 range.

I rarely buy consumer retail brands, but I grabbed long positions in $LULU today at ~$360. I believe it's oversold at -30% with poor guidance + many, many technical support levels 320-360 range.


Summary: Expects TSLA to pull back to ~$120 again, offering another buying opportunity.

@Gfilche I had a limit set for 101.80, missed bottom by 0.01 - extra salty. I think we will see 120 or so again though for another chance

dam $TSLA under $500B was a steal. salty I missed it 🥺


sentiment is clearly bearish. Big money is positioning themselves for further downside… Bottom line: hedge into $TSLA earnings if you can

Summary: Bearish TSLA into earnings: bleak macro, no rate cuts, China lost, hybrid trend, street won't give a pass; recommends hedging.

Here's how $TSLA option flow over $500k+ looked today. Some of the puts are not above ask, so it's possible they were multi-leg strats or cash covered. Regardless, sentiment is clearly bearish. Big money is positioning themselves for further downside (as they have been for 3+ months).

The writing is on the wall. Macro setup looks bleak, interest rates are not getting cut anytime soon or nearly as steep, and China is a lost battleground. Oh, and apparently hybrids are the new trend in NA.

Even if Elon vindicates the Model 2 plans on tmr's call, I doubt the street will give them a pass. Any $BTC and FSD rev recognition should get backed out.

I expect Elon to *heavily* emphasize the 'don't look here, look over there (FSD/robotaxis)' narrative tomorrow. Not saying he's wrong, but I doubt it'll digest well.

Bottom line: hedge into $TSLA earnings if you can


Summary: Expects price to reach 195 then 208 before the next selloff; near-term bullish targets.

@Hi_Pr_Trades @robmaurer Yeah - there's lots of resistance to slog thru, but I'm targeting 195 and 208 before we sell off again

@mrwgreig @robmaurer We've got the weekly 200 ema at 185 to slog through first.


Summary: Bullish NVDA flow returning; bearish TSLA into earnings with strong historical skew to downside moves.

Last few weeks were mostly bearish flow for $NVDA and $TSLA.

Today we're back to bullish $NVDA and bearish $TSLA flow.

The smartest thing you can do as a $TSLA investor is to always hedge into earnings. I did this for 5+ years. The <10-15% post earnings that rally are easily offset by the 85%+ that fall -5-10%. Do not expect much upside without Zach/Drew on the call.

Past 4 $TSLA earnings have been down -10%+


The smartest thing you can do as a $TSLA investor is to always hedge into earnings. The <10-15% post earnings that rally are easily offset by the 85%+ that fall -5-10%. Do not expect much upside without Zach/Drew on the call.


Summary: Bearish TSLA for 9-12 months on macro headwinds, chart trend, China uncertainty, and Twitter overhang.

@farzyness Fundamentals are in the backseat right now Farzad. Extremely bearish macro outlook + chart trend + uncertainty around China + TWTR episode. Fundamentals might make a recovery in Q1 23 print but I suspect not until 9-12 months from now

$TSLA is currently trading at ~17 P/E on ~$23B 2023 earnings. Is this fair value?


do the exact opposite of what Mark Spiegel and $TSLAQ say. It's been going well so far

Summary: Sarcastic jab at TSLA bears; implied bullish on TSLA as fading the short thesis has been profitable.

Alright, my new investment strategy for 2020 is to do the exact opposite of what Mark Spiegel and $TSLAQ say. It’s been going well so far. $TSLA


Summary: Bullish TSLA from 2025 onward despite near-term headwinds over the next 6-18 months.

@garyblack00 Likely 6-18 months of some cloudy skies but 2025+ looking solid

Here’s the $TSLA investment debate in 3 slides.

The most important driver of a company’s stock price are future earnings. As $TSLA bears are quick to point out, TSLA fundamentals and earnings revisions have been declining for over a year now:  2024 Adj EPS has declined to $3.93 https://t.co/u5Tz9cAxaj


Summary: Expects short-term dip from Musk share sale but forecasts TSLA back at all-time highs within a year; fundamentals unchanged.

Nothing fundamental with $TSLA is changing even if @elonmusk liquidates 10% of his shares. Will we dip this week? Likely. But we'll be back at all time highs next year.


Summary: TSLA expected to hit ~$1300 tomorrow, setting up breakout to $1400–1420 by Monday.

Looks like $TSLA may hit ~$1300 tomorrow to setup for another Fri/Mon breakout - would put $1400-1420 in play for Monday


Buy a great company at a mediocre price instead of a mediocre company at a great price' applies here

Summary: Endorses long BABA, framing it as a great company available at a mediocre price.

@gurgavin ‘Buy a great company at a mediocre price instead of a mediocre company at a great price’ applies here

ALIBABA IS CURRENTLY WORTH $195 BILLION AND IT HAS $92 BILLION IN CASH

IN 4 YEARS ALIBABA WILL HAVE MORE CASH ON HAND THAN ITS ENTIRE MARKET CAP

ALIBABA SPENT ~$5 BILLION ON SHARE BUYBACKS IN Q1 OF THIS YEAR AND STILL HAS $32 BILLION DOLLARS LEFT IN ITS BUYBACK PLAN

$BABA https://t.co/YfFzzNQz1O


Summary: Short-term bearish TSLA into Q3 deliveries; expects further downside in October unless a beat materializes.

Looks like $TSLA will test $280 tomorrow (purp arrow > key fib channel double crossover). I can see us going as high as $290 to fill the gap before retracing into Q3 deliveries (yellow arrow). If we finally breakout from a Q3 beat, $TSLA will likely test $330-$415 by EOY https://t.co/HrXzmQkAGW

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$TSLA also tends to like plus/minus 3/5/10% days, given today's large move I'd suspect a 3-5% movement tmrw (bias towards upside) which would put us around 281-290

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This chart prediction is aging well - likely more downside ahead with near-term macro headwinds (FOMC next week) + Q3 delivery shortfall, potential price cuts (MY inventory is high). Seeing lots of option hedging for TSLA to hit 200 and below by mid Jan

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Weekly update: chart is🎯- predicted the top within $1 and now providing short-term support around 253-256. If we fall thru here, likely 243 next and we range 243-262 into deliveries (as predicted)

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Weekly update: within $1 of expected price moving into Q3 deliveries. Unless we beat, expect more movement down in Oct. Will post chart updates next week depending on the report https://t.co/Ca4uiYi8Zs


I expect EPS sub 0.70 with those price cuts. I really don't think Musk/Tesla care about earnings and keeping stock price afloat.

Summary: Expects TSLA Q4 EPS below $0.70; bearish on near-term earnings as price cuts and volume-over-margin strategy weigh on results.

@TSLAFanMtl I expect EPS sub 0.70 with those price cuts. I really don’t think Musk/Tesla care about earnings and keeping stock price afloat. Their objective is volume growth. Will be interesting to see with S/X increase in volume + inventory price cuts (and Uber incentive)

Tesla’s Q4-23 eps will fundamentally depend on Tesla’s ability to drive down automotive cost per vehicle. I am optimistic that they have continued to progress here.

The other component that will determine automotive gross margin is automotive revenue and ASP, ofc. Hard to


A full candle close below weekly/monthly clouds will be extremely bad for the stock's rebound potential. RSI/MACD also very bearish. not abnormal for $TSLA to trade sub 30 RSI for an extended period before further downside

Summary: Bearish TSLA into earnings: ichi cloud breakdown, weekly/monthly MACD crossovers down, sub-30 RSI can persist before further downside.

$TSLA ichi clouds aren't looking good going into earnings. D/W/M from left>right. A full candle close below weekly/monthly clouds will be extremely bad for the stock's rebound potential.

RSI/MACD also very bearish. In the last 2 months, we've had MACD on weekly/monthly crossovers to downside.

Daily RSI is oversold, yes - but not abnormal for $TSLA to trade sub 30 RSI for an extended period before further downside.  This happened 3 times in 2022 on the way down to $101.81


Summary: Short/hedged TSLA from 250+; bearish on 2024 demand gap and lack of guidance from management.

@DivesTech @CNN @CNNBusiness I usually agree with you but your recent bullish takes I had to disagree with. Nothing wrong with that, but I went short/hedged from 250+. Still respect your analysis long term. Expected this from Musk and co. on the call. 2024 demand gap year w no guidance.

We were dead wrong expecting Musk and team to step up like adults in the room on the call and give a strategic and financial overview of the ongoing price cuts, margin structure, and fluctuating demand,” he wrote in a note Thursday
👇

https://t.co/H0Ywkh0rY8 @CNN @CNNBusiness


Summary: Short TSLA: expects drop to ~$200 post-earnings and $146 gap fill by year-end.

@rtmasse @Mr_Derivatives TSLA -10% right after past 4 earnings. It’ll be more clear once we form the B correction wave. Probably go into earnings around $220ish and drop to 200 is my best guess. I still expect $146 gap filled by end of year though.

@mrwgreig @Mr_Derivatives Where do you see it going?


Summary: TSLA potentially forming diamond bottom pattern with ~$262 gap target by year-end.

$TSLA is currently being driven by traders and could be forming a diamond bottom between 187 and 237 which would imply around $262 (gap target) by EOY


Summary: Bullish TSLA: shorts miss its software moat; legacy auto cannot easily retrain mechanical engineers as software engineers.

@garyblack00 $TSLA shorts also never understood software advantages thinking legacy auto can suddenly switch their platoons of mechanical engineers into software engineers

$TSLA shorts never got the uniqueness of the Tesla brand as creator of the EV category. I have tried warning HF PMs shorting TSLA to research Tesla’s brand equity as EV creator, given consumer anxiety about range, charging, tech, etc. Most have no idea what I am talking about.


Summary: Holds TSLA with $125 cost basis, averaged up to $650; ongoing long position.

@stevenmarkryan 125 after averaging up. Bought up to $650

What's your $TSLA cost basis?

After today's buying I'm at $158. Cost basis has about doubled in the last year or so. Still buying, still cheap IMO. If I keep this up it may crack $1,000 eventually.


Summary: 2018 predictions: ZRX reaches top-5 crypto market cap; TSLA breaks $500.

My predictions for #2018 - $ZRX top 5 market cap crypto; $TSLA breaks $500 USD; InVision Studio dethrones Adobe and Sketch; VGK lose to NSH in conference finals; NSH beats TBL for Stanley Cup


We're on a fast track to 130s. Q1 EPS might even be negative.

Summary: Bearish TSLA on disastrous delivery print and China concerns; sees price heading to the 130s with possible negative Q1 EPS.

@garyblack00 Disastrous print. No way to spin this. China is a real concern for TSLA. We’re on a fast track to 130s. Q1 EPS might even be negative.

$TSLA (-7% pre-mkt) delivered 386.8K vehicles in 1Q -8.5% YoY and it’s first YoY decline since Covid in 2020 2Q.  This was far below consensus 1Q of 431K.  We expect analysts to reduce vol and eps estimates for FY’24.  This will renew the narrative about TSLA’s 60x 2024 P/E with https://t.co/uoRc39z1uR


Summary: Pair trade: long NVDA, short TSLA — author confirms this position aged well and remains in the trade.

$TSLA investors expecting the fed to drop rates 2x more than the fed’s guidance, ask yourself: the only way this happens is if we are approaching a hard landing, which inherently suggests a recession. Both a recession or elevated rates (450bps as guided by fed) outcome are not enough to stimulate demand to 2.3m+ and bearish if anything. A soft landing would be undeniably bullish for Tesla but this will take time to confirm (likely beyond 2024).

My take: 2024 is a demand pocket year for $TSLA with bad macro backdrop continuation. We have multiple model refreshes happening concurrently, CT ramp (challenging and slow like model X), EPS + vol growth decline, $TSLA energy bright spot, Optimus advancing faster than many expected, FSD many false dawns but improving. Bottom line: the bull narrative isn’t as strong as it was 2020-21 *but* long term (2026+) is still intact.

Keep an eye on $TSLA 2.1 PEG - currently not great vs $NVDA in mag7. Elon will sacrifice EPS for vol growth to sustain Tesla’s mission. Nothing wrong with this plan, but at 2.1 PEG, don’t expect much upside for the stock price.

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This aged nicely and profitably going long $NVDA and short $TSLA


Summary: Expects NVDA to dip to ~$830-850 then reverse sharply; plans to sell puts on the flush.

Seeing some $NVDA crosscurrents going into tomorrow. Chance of a bottom channel test around ~$830 which is conveniently the same price target of the recently formed bear flag and recent low on Apr 9.

Daily ichi cloud (850) and fib chans/exts/retrace suggest it may stop short at ~850 before a fast reversal but the spectrum of probabilities favoring a quick dip and vicious reversal is set. 50 SMA on daily is also fast approaching at ~838 tmr.

I will likely sell $NVDA puts Jun 21 800p if this does happen.

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update 2 sessions later, fulfilled target from bull flag. Also bounced off bottom of a large bull flag channel + fib channel https://t.co/vckdZMv9FX


Summary: Short TSLA to $130-150 by August and $108 by EOY; bear flag on chart and weak fundamentals vs NVDA on forward PE.

As a long-time $TSLA shareholder (7+ years), it's disappointing to see the direction this is going but the charts are clear. The massive bear flag needs to be prevented for more downside. Weak fundamentals (ex. $NVDA cheaper relative to $TSLA forward PE) are also not helping. I still expect ~$130-150 by August and as low as $108 by EOY. Hopefully next year will be a breakout year for the stock back above $300.

$TSLA $NVDA $AMD $PLTR $TSM


Summary: Expects TSLA to reverse sharply upward ~$106 to ~$208 next week based on prior rally patterns.

@robmaurer Yep, this is mostly TA driven with maybe 30% fundamentals. What can go down fast can go up fast too. $TSLA did a $106 reversal in 2 of the last reverse rallies, puts it around $208 next week which is a key resistance

Turns out tax loss harvesting, additional float, margin calls, stop losses, panic selling, and momentum shorting can add a lot of volatility and maybe cause stocks to drop a little too far sometimes... $TSLA


Summary: Holds PLTR long bought at $16.70; cites Munger 'good company at OK price' thesis as justification.

@gurgavin Glad I sidestepped these two. Meanwhile I bought $PLTR at 16.70 before earnings. What’s that Munger quote? Better to buy a good company at an OK price than an OK company at a good price? Seems 🎯 for $BABA $PYPL


Summary: TSLA to $1400 before UBER doubles; PTON could double via acquisition; U and AFRM also candidates to double first.

@Jason $TSLA will likely be $1400 before $UBER hits $50. $PTON could be first if acquired though. Other choices are $U and $AFRM (even after recent boost)

What public tech stock will be the first to double in value from today? Explain why for bonus points.

I’m talking my book and will say $uber, in < 18 months


Other choices are $U and $AFRM (even after recent boost)


Summary: Bearish COIN: bear flag formation at 50dma, recommends buying puts with time.

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'

@Mr_Derivatives Puts with time, printed a bear flag

$COIN 134 and dropping and near it’s 50dma…

What to do here?


Summary: Bearish butterfly pattern canceled by 10%+ move; author is long NVDA with near-term resistance ~$1059.

One more day like this (~3%+) for $NVDA puts it at risk of forming a bearish butterfly if it sells off around 944-950 https://t.co/ysfi8BGZg9

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I should add, this doesn't have to happen tomorrow. The formation holds if this occurs in the next few weeks

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This pattern is in the process of fulfilling today. It holds pattern up to $1000 (1.6 fib ext). Major event (earnings) May 22 will likely determine direction amplified by this pattern or the recent bull flag prints.

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Pattern canceled with today's 10%+ move. Good news for us longs. There's near-term resistance around ~1059


Summary: NVDA PT $1200 likely by August 2024; bullish into the 10:1 stock split.

$NVDA stock split coming in June exactly within the window I predicted (sometime during summer) months ago. I thought 4:1 would happen but 10:1 is welcome news.

My 2024 PT $1200 is looking likely by August. https://t.co/DnqOIYoZym


Summary: Bearish TSLA; sees 2024 as a demand trough with price falling to $150.

@garyblack00 I’ll repeat it again. 2024 will be a demand pocket year and bumpy ride down to $150. Hedge if you can or buy the dips.

$TSLA has cut M-Y prices by 4-9% (avg 6%) across several Europe countries.  M-3 prices were unchanged.  We estimate Europe M-Y accounts for just 11% of TSLA volume (54K/485K in 4Q). We expect European inventory discounts to be cut by about the same amount, at least for the time https://t.co/xSNMn2xahx


Summary: Bearish TSLA; after hitting $157 target, expects next support at $133.

Well we hit $157 as I predicted but it took a few weeks.  I expect the next support zone around $133

Going into Q1 print, haven't changed my 414k estimate. Looking at $TSLA price movement:

1) my short term price target is now $157 for technical reasons. A -10% drop from today's close is exactly there. A -5% drop puts the price at a key fib retrace level of $165. $160 is a potential double-bottom bullish reversal candidate

2) a 'sell the rumor, buy the news' outcome is also possible. The short thesis has been obvious for 30+ days so unless $TSLA reports below 423k tomorrow, I can see minimal downside until earnings

Will update once numbers are out.


Summary: MSFT, AAPL, TSLA will be Tier 1 big tech with a growing gap over the rest of large-cap tech.

@DivesTech $MSFT $AAPL $TSLA will be Tier 1 big tech and the gap will grow

Meta we view as a completely different situation than the rest of larger cap tech as the company is facing Apple iOS privacy issues, massive digital media headwinds, social media share losses, and transforming its biz model at the worst possible time with Zuckerberg as the pilot https://t.co/yESBE1iyWt


Summary: Bearish TSLA: diamond top pattern targets gap fill at $147 within 6-9 months.

@realMeetKevin $TSLA printed a massive head/shoulder last  year that contributed to the downward pressure as well. $TSLA also just printed a massive diamond top and that has a large gap to fill at $147. Doubt we get there by EOY but within 6-9 months looking more likely than not

Tesla stock is crashing $TSLA.
✅Tax-loss harvesting season is upon us.
✅✅However, that is predicated on people actually having gains to offset, so this tax-loss season may be LESS damaging than last year.
✅Last year Tesla dropped ~$100 from Dec 1 - Dec 31. Buckle up.
✅HSBC https://t.co/HmChegsUs1


Summary: Still short TSLA; targets $101-123 on bad charts, weak fundamentals, and rate-cut thesis failing.

I closed half my remaining short (puts) today. I've been swinging the short position since $292 in Sept/Oct when it became clear the next 9-12 months were ominous.

The charts look horrible and fundamentals are equally as bad. The brightest 2024 bull narrative of 'rate cuts' isn't happening as expected. $TSLA can easily revisit 101-123 from here. Ex-FSD improvements, not much to cheer for.

With $TSLA at 52-week lows today, if you’re still short, at what price are you hoping to cover your short and get clear?


Summary: Bearish TSLA on executive departures; author views Zach and Drew losses as significant and not spinnable positively.

Agreed. In the Isaacson book, Musk has had critical disagreement with many top brass over the years on robotaxi and model 2.

When we heard of Guillen leaving ( $TSLA community downplayed it as ‘he’s been there for a while etc.’) and Zach with a similar spin - it’s clear in the book that Jerome (and very likely Drew/Zach) were due to underperformance or a lack of conviction.

It cannot be spun any other way. I’ve followed the company for a decade. This is very bearish - especially Zach and Drew as they were the two most prominent brass in my eyes.

Biggest executive loss since Zach and Jerome Guillen. This is no longer the Tesla of old.


Summary: Bearish TSLA into Wednesday earnings; little upside expected.

Right before earnings season. First up in Mag7 is $TSLA this Wednesday and I wouldn’t hold much upside hope

$QQQ Measured move complete. ✅ https://t.co/Mg2Yb4dHWd


Summary: YoY volume decline in China will pressure TSLA stock in Q1.

@TSLAFanMtl YoY vol decline not gunna go over well with the stock

Very soft week in China especially considering all of the discounts available right now. Q1 looking very soft. My last fc of 430k may still be too high. Quarter now trending towards 420k.


Summary: Bearish TSLA: price-cut strategy for FSD market share will weigh on earnings and stock over 6–12 months.

Today's $TSLA price cuts say more than it seems. It looked like $TSLA was going for the path of maximum earnings, throttled production and remove price cuts.

However, it looks like it's decided to go down the other path: maximum user base for FSD. This means price cuts will keep happening.

This is really bad news for the stock next 6-12 months.


Summary: Re-entered NVDA long at $843 on dip, sees support 800-830; monitoring for further upside.

Re-entered my $NVDA long position (sold 910-970) today around 865. I see a potential Wyckoff distribution + several key supports between 818-860

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Closed at 885 today (4h ichi) for +25% 1-day gains due to some bearish pattern forming (rising wedge etc). Monitoring for re-entry to upside. Buying dips below 818-860

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Re-entered and bought dip with a chunk of shares at $843 yesterday.

I'm seeing Wyckoff distribution form + lots of support 800-830

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To those curious of my entry thesis and following

https://t.co/3RQasfv751

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Sold $NVDA Jun 21 800p (cash covered) within 0.50 of session high today, spot $840


Summary: Bearish TSLA: YoY Q1 volume decline will be a disastrous narrative for the stock.

@garyblack00 These numbers are actually respectable. I'm at $2.20 2024 EPS. Regardless, the vol decline is the real story here. YoY decline for Q1 will be a disastrous narrative for the stock

Another $TSLA 1Q and FY’24 delivs cut - UBS. https://t.co/KU3KZVR2iw


Summary: Bearish TSLA to $130-150; recommends hedging via selling calls/buying puts through 2024 on no improvement in growth story since 2022.

@teslashanghai These reasons are why I hedged hard from 250-400 the past 2 years. I haven't seen the growth story improve since 2022. I strongly recommend long-term investors hedge (sell calls/buy puts) throughout 2024 to smooth out the turbulence as we likely going to $130-150

Tesla seems to be facing a reality check. Let's think about the catalysts we still have:
1. FSD? Delayed.
2. Gross Margin? Continues to decrease with price cuts.
3. New factories? Delayed.
4. Model Q? Not visible in the next 2 years.
5. Stock buyback? I think Elon doesn't


Summary: TSLA could bottom at $60-75 in a bad recession but would be an amazing buy opportunity at that level.

@WR4NYGov Good advice, avoid margin unless you are 100% certain you know what you are doing. Agree, $TSLA can see $60-75 as a potential bottom if recession is worse than we think. Will be an amazing buy opp

Don’t get carried away. Yes I see $TSLA going to $2000 and higher by 2030.

But margin is dangerous. Wall Street doesn’t see 2030 or even 2025.

In a bad recession $TSLA could fall to $60 or lower this year. https://t.co/BOYcxaZRI8


Summary: Bullish TSLA on robot upside, though skeptical FSD alone gets it to NVDA scale.

@Gfilche Even if $TSLA solves FSD it won’t be 1/4 $NVDA. Robot has huge upside though

$TSLA flat/minimal growth in 2024 could be a massive buying opportunity before an Nvidia moment in 2025/26 with FSD, Robotaxi & Teslabot


Summary: TSLA at ~267–265 Fibonacci channel resistance; a convincing weekly close above would signal a bullish breakout.

@TSLAFanMtl This line is actually more accurately represented as a Fibonacci channel, and on the weekly it suggests 267 this week and 265 next week FYI. A convincing weekly close above this would be considered a breakout

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@TSLAFanMtl This also explains your 'false breakout' on the daily


Summary: Long TSLA to $1400 EOY on Jefferies upgrade, China Q4 beat, and potential split catalyst.

@thetradingchick It’s $TSLA sold from overreaction of @elonmusk tweet proposal meanwhile Jeffries bumps to street high $1400 PT and China numbers come out swinging to start q4. Buy. $1400 PT by EOY (higher if split announced).

pop-quiz: do you buy or sell here? https://t.co/h4hd7H5qBF


Opened some low 200 $tsla positions looking forward to the #model3 tomorrow

Summary: Long TSLA; opened positions in low $200s ahead of Model 3 event tomorrow.


This is awful news. $TSLA growth not only slowing, but going in reverse. Xiaomi SU7 is the epitome of what's wrong with $TSLA in China and how they misunderstand what the local consumer wants in their EV.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: China insured units declining, losing ground to Xiaomi SU7 as company misreads local consumer preferences.

$TSLA 🇨🇳
NEWS: Tesla China insured units

<Apr 2024>
1-7 : 1,907
8-14 : 6,212
15-21 : 5,168 https://t.co/5mMQbHmdYx


I can't help but laugh at anyone driving an ICE vehicle - lining up to fill up at these astronomical prices $TSLA

Summary: High gas prices make EVs compelling; implicitly bullish on Tesla as the EV beneficiary.

With gas flirting with $2 CAD/litre, which is around $5.30 USD/gallon, I can’t help but laugh at anyone driving an ICE vehicle - lining up to fill up at these astronomical prices $TSLA


Summary: Bearish on Tesla: drastically cut deliveries and evaporated margins compress PEG and forward PE, valuation no longer supported.

@theartofvalue @sashayanshin Rose tinted glasses on retail left and right. Deliveries until 2030 reduced drastically, profit margins 65%+ evaporated. Both materially impact PEG and forward PE but hey nothings changed

@sashayanshin 'No matter if the underlying numbers haven't changed one iota.' Have you looked at the growth numbers, for instance" compared to a couple of years ago?


Summary: Bearish TSLA: more bearish than bullish technical patterns, break of $160 triggers sharp downside, Q1 earnings seen as next leg lower.

@TSLAFanMtl Shows how much was priced in. Technical patterns are mostly all in tact still (and there are more bearish patterns than bullish) - if we break $160 it's going south fast.

Q1 earnings likely next leg down. Until then, choppiness between 160-170.


Summary: Near-term bearish on NVDA expecting downward trend for months, then buying the dip at $110-115.

Called the top for $NVDA and the resulting correction of -20%. I think we see a downward trend for a few months, but I'm buying the dip around 110-115 with the intention of writing calls https://t.co/maecrCQW85


I'm buying the dip around 110-115 with the intention of writing calls


It'll follow technical patterns at least to $137 gap. I think its most likely bottom is around there as it's also -67% from ATH

Summary: TSLA likely bottoms around $137 (gap fill, -67% from ATH); bearish with downside target.

@28delayslater It’ll follow technical patterns at least to $137 gap. I think its most likely bottom is around there as it’s also -67% from ATH

I thought $TSLA would bottom at about $166.  I was wrong! Share your guess below. Where does this end?


Summary: Endorses NVDA bullish thesis; valuation still reasonable at sub-50 forward PE.

@TickerSymbolYOU Forward PE still reasonable below 50

$NVDA cracked $900 and its run has just begun. Still to come:

• H200 server GPU
• GH200 super chip
• B100 Blackwell GPU
• GB200 next-gen super chip
• Next-gen Infiniband for AI networking

This is why it's so important to understand the science behind the stocks! https://t.co/nyubKQzrPQ


I don't think this really rallies to 300+ until 2H '24 and can still fill the $147 gap before then

Summary: Bearish near-term: weak fundamentals into Q1/Q2 2024, expects gap fill at $147 before any rally to $300+.

Unfortunately the fundamentals (GM ex-RC + EPS) are not looking good going into q1/q2 ‘24 and will likely not breach ATH trendline or waste the breakout. It’s possible with a delivery beat Jan 2 though. However, I don’t think this really rallies to 300+ until 2H ‘24 and can still fill the $147 gap before then


Summary: Bullish TSLA; Model 3 worth $40k at $28k net price implies significant value, author a long-term investor.

@Mr_Derivatives Easily. Car is worth $40k. Reason I invested in 2016.

I know half of my followers love Tesla. Half my followers HATE Tesla.

But there is denying…

A Model 3 net fed tax credit and gas savings for just $28k….

Is a GAME CHANGER.

Just need those auto loan rates to chill.

My 2c. https://t.co/Z8YVPHV3dw


The odds of the $TSLA Q1 earnings call going off the rails just spiked upwards. Brace yourself, long 2024 ahead.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: key departures raise risk of Q1 earnings chaos; today's -5% is just the start of a rough 2024.

The odds of the $TSLA Q1 earnings call going off the rails just spiked upwards. Zach and Drew were the two most reasonable voices for investors for the past 5+ years. I'd argue that today's -5% movement is more in a response to key brass departures than the 10%+ company-wide layoffs.

Brace yourself, long 2024 ahead.


Summary: Expects AMZN earnings hard miss: AWS losing share, inflation headwind for ecomm, rising logistics costs.

@anyatrades hard miss - AWS losing market share, inflation not good for ecomm, logistic costs are up

$AMZN earnings beat or miss after market close today?


Summary: Own Q1 delivery estimate of 171k above consensus, driven by China + S/X; Elon silence and no email leaks read as bullish signals.

Expecting around 171k Q1 deliveries announced tomorrow $TSLA up from my previous 166k estimate mostly from China and some S/X

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I initially had 181k as my forecast but severely reduced it after seeing @garyblack00 @TroyTeslike @robmaurer post their estimates. To their defence, I think they know this more than I do. However, @elonmusk being silent + no email leaks were bullish signals


Summary: Disclosed long TSLA position while dismissing bearish valuation comparison as flawed analysis.

@dillonloomis @charliebilello Dangerous commentary, missing forest for the trees. I'm long $TSLA but this analysis is shoddy at best

In August of 2020, the market cap of $TSLA reached $780B

Tesla's TTM (trailing twelve month) figures at the time:

Deliveries: 430,350
Operating margin: 6.1%
GAAP net income: $556M
FCF: $1.9B

Current $TSLA market cap: ~$755B

Current TTM figures:

Deliveries: 1.73M
Operating https://t.co/z1UnjujyTB


Summary: Bullish TSLA into Q4 earnings on expected blowout results, product updates, and Musk factor driving market cap surge.

@garyblack00 Absurd to witness this. Q4 earnings featuring @elonmusk has the potential to be the most dramatic increase by market cap w/ earnings blowout + product updates and some Elon X-factor

Huge distinction between $NFLX and $TSLA:  NFLX growth has plunged because of Covid overhang and competition.  TSLA growth accelerating as EV adoption soars and competition still can’t replicate TSLA. TSLA now trading at 47x 2023 EPS - lowest since mid-2020 at height of Covid.


Summary: Short TSLA: expects break below $235 key level, $217 gap fill likely, sub-$180 by EOY.

@TSLAFanMtl $235 is a key level, it coincides as a double key trendline (one being diagonal) this week. If we break that, which I expect ($230 bottom during AH), then 217 gap fill is very likely and sub 180 by EOY also likely.

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@TSLAFanMtl Looking back at my projections, this aged well James, although about a month off. Not a 'told you so' tweet at any level. Trying to journal my thoughts vs projections


Summary: Bearish TSLA with price targets 160-175 and sub-175 by January based on bearish diamond top and pennant formation.

@garyblack00 Again, while this news definitely contributes, $TSLA printed a very bearish diamond top formation and a bearish pennant in past 2 months. Price targets are 160-175. We are oversold in short term but do not be surprised if we see sub 175 by Jan.

$TSLA weakness today could be due to big $ON guidance miss (-18%).  ON sells silicon carbide chips to EV makers and cited “increased risk to automotive demand due to high interest rates.” ON sells to automotive players with over 50% share of global EV sales, including 4 of the


Summary: Bearish TSLA: expects gap fill at $146 this year, possibly not the bottom.

@TSLAFanMtl Hopefully you hedged. I’ve been pounding the table for $TSLA investors to hedge since mid 2023. We will fill the $146 gap this year and that may not even be the bottom


Summary: Bearish TSLA: China EV share loss to Xiaomi, hybrid preference, aging lineup, and thin long-term upside beyond FSD/energy storage.

Blaming interest rates? They've been over 400bps since 2022 and lowered QoQ from Q4 2023.

Let's try acknowledging China's EV competitive landscape (see Xiaomi SU7) where $TSLA is clearly losing market share fast, hybrid preference for non-early adopters and an aging product lineup that has belated ads (which should've began in early 2023 at latest). Outside of FSD and energy storage, there's thin upside to the 'long term growth story being in tact'

I have a different explanation than $TSLA about why March deliveries were ugly. Big picture; I believe this will pass because Tesla is making the right decisions for the long-run. https://t.co/i87106Mfe3


Summary: Bearish MSFT (diamond top, 5th wave complete, MACD crossover) and NVDA (selling off at top of rising broadening wedge); both signal potential market top.

$MSFT (left) diamond top forming + potential 5th wave completion; potential market top with $NVDA (right) selling off at top end of its rising broadening pattern. Both daily views. https://t.co/57NvNgaaRh

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$MSFT MACD crossover on daily as well https://t.co/u8xHZjsbRS


$NVDA (right) selling off at top end of its rising broadening pattern


Summary: Bearish TSLA: erratic pricing, email spam, weak Q1 delivery signals all point negative.

@garyblack00 Getting email spam from Tesla sales past month. Seeing product hero page changes. Price cuts left and right and telling people prices going up in a few weeks. Delivery numbers looking sub 450k for Q1. None of this is bullish

$TSLA appears likely to take M-Y RWD and LR prices back up tomorrow by the same $1,000 TSLA cut on 2/11. We don’t like the strategy of dropping then raising the price three weeks later (since it trains would be buyers to wait for a deal), but on the TSLA website this morning TSLA https://t.co/QLXC7IVCIF


There's also a diamond top there suggesting 150-165

Summary: Diamond top pattern on TSLA weekly chart targets 150–165 downside.

@TrendSpider There’s also a diamond top there suggesting 150-165

$TSLA Weekly symmetrical triangle breakdown after missing EPS estimates for the first time since Q4 2020 🪫

Price is now testing multi-month lows. https://t.co/Uo1v6OQ860


Summary: Bearish TSLA: Gann fan support breached, expects sub-$150 post-earnings, ~$133 rebound but no further upside in 2024.

A simple Gann fan from 101.81 multi-year bottom is shown in this key $TSLA chart. A picture is worth a thousand words. https://t.co/f6iCWB6pLh

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This bottom blue line (8/1 Gann) was breached premarket today and is now being retested. I expect it to act as resistance into earnings next week. I expect sub $150 after the print. $133ish for a rebound target but do not expect further upside anytime soon in 2024.


Summary: TSLA upside targets 206 and 213 via inverse H&S pattern, gap fill, and 50% fib retrace.

@TSLAFanMtl Not true. The inverse head and shoulder neckline is around there but it can breakout/re-test it. Necklines almost always get re-tested. The next 5 days will be mixed. Upside targets are 206 and 213 which align perfectly with a gap fill and 50% fib retrace though

I think $TSLA needs to close over $194.60 at the end of the day for sustained bullish momentum.


Summary: Large above-ask opening buy on NVDA 2026 call LEAPS; still an open trade, currently up 2x within 30 days.

$NVDA large above ask opening 2026 call leaps https://t.co/qHHJROlLLk

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Good to always revisit abnormal, large moves especially before an event (earnings in this case). This play was definitely bought and is currently still an open trade at 2x (or up 18m) within 30 days.


Summary: Bearish TSLA short-term: fib re-test at ~160.50 then -5% drop to ~152.50 tomorrow.

$TSLA charts showing decent chance of a ~160.50 fib ext re-test then -5% intraday drop to ~152.50 tomorrow.

Short-term movement is tough to predict, but signals are aligning.


I followed and grabbed some too. Let's go

Summary: Followed parent's trade and bought TSLA Jan 07 1150 calls; bullish into next week.

@Fiilismies08 So this was the buyer I saw on my alerts. I followed and grabbed some too. Let’s go

Bought 300 $TSLA Jan 07 1150 call options for around 300k. Fingers crossed for next week.


Summary: Diamond top pattern on TSLA weekly chart signals bearish reversal from Aug rally high of 299.

@PeterLBrandt Diamond top on Aug weekly rally to 299 as well https://t.co/zIJYl1Cfq7

Diamonds are a girl's best friend $TSLA https://t.co/A8ceUrBGhw


Summary: Bullish TSLA on Model 3 preorder momentum surpassing 250k deposits.

#model3 preorder deposits surpass 250k. The forward thinking buyers have spoken $tsla


Summary: Bearish: Wyckoff distribution + bear bat + rising wedge fulfilled at 265; expects a bounce then decline below $210.

@cryptocantoncat As I mentioned before, textbook Wyckoff distribution happening from a bear bat + rising wedge that fulfilled at 265. I still expect a rebound into earnings before sub $210 https://t.co/HM0cWIIjBV


Summary: Opening long call spreads on NVDA into earnings; expects earnings to outweigh bearish technical signals.

$NVDA hitting fib chan upper resistance going into earnings today at ~750 - possible near-term top into earnings. Am bullish but can see pullback https://t.co/kYOBs5pKKO

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My rebound target is ~$680 or around -5% from here

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680 target hit right on queue before earnings. I see MACD crossover and some other bearish technicals forming but earnings tmr will outweigh those heavily. Opening long call spreads

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Large above ask sweep call leap opening order about 25 mins ago on $NVDA https://t.co/uzrEloBu79


Summary: Half SPY short still open; bearish TSLA into Oct/Nov on likely Q3 delivery miss and diamond top formation.

@BCalusinski Nice trade. I just closed half my SPY short - still holding $TSLA puts/covered calls into Oct/Nov. Q3 deliveries (Oct 2) likely a big miss + diamond top formation = strong bias to downside. Any plans to open a position on $TSLA before Oct?

$SPX And just like that, the main target has been satisfied only 5 sessions later

4510 —>4333 (August lows)

Next up: I will be looking to catch a short-term bounce

More on that soon 🎥 https://t.co/C4YP8u2sP9


So roughly $2.20 2024 EPS. A fair multiple is 50. Some argue that's too high given recent margin/growth trends. That's $110 fair value.

Summary: Implied bearish: TSLA fair value ~$110 on $2.20 EPS × 50x, well below current price, with downside risk if multiple compresses further.

@TSLAFanMtl So roughly $2.20 2024 EPS. A fair multiple is 50. Some argue that’s too high given recent margin/growth trends. That’s $110 fair value.

How far we’ve fallen. I remember 2024 EPS was supposed to be over $7.00 not even a few years ago.

If you can't be bothered to read Part 1 and Part 2 (with explanations), here is the TLDR version:

Revenue $21.45B (-8% YoY)
Auto Gross Margin Ex Credit = 15.8% (last quarter was 17.2%, last year was 19%)
Operating Margin 6.1%  (last quarter was 8.2%, last year was 11.4%)
$0.48


Summary: Bullish TSLA: legacy automakers cannot replicate TSLA's software advantage, making autonomy lead more durable than parent's $960 PT implies.

@garyblack00 while I appreciate and respect your $TSLA analysis - I think you're far off the mark here. Most, if not all, car mfrs are not fundamentally designed to build software. It will be drastically more difficult for legacy auto to build software than it was for TSLA to build cars

If you look at the history of innovation in the auto industry, once one mfr comes up with something better, all other mfrs reverse engineer it and quickly copy it. $TSLA is way ahead of everyone on autonomy, but TSLA will not be the only one who can apply AI to autonomy. $960 PT.


Summary: Short-lean on TSLA into Q1 delivery print; expects sub-423k deliveries, -5-10% move, with re-entry considered at $115-137; technicals 65/35 bearish.

$TSLA company compiled consensus is at 431k. I estimated 430k as the whisper number several weeks ago - now I wonder if it's actually lower (~420k). Regardless, any number below 423k is a YoY decline and will result in a negative reaction to the stock. How much depends on what the market has already priced in I think anything below 423k will result in -5-10% move w/ a potential sharp rebound. I believe ~$150 and $137 present the next best bounce candidates.

I'm at 412k deliveries for Q1 2024.

Also, I'm considering re-entering my $TSLA position around 115-137. This will be about -50% less then when I sold. Will also closely monitor how the stock moves around 150 as this is a key level for many reasons.

There are 2 large bear flags + a massive diamond top (log chart) going into this Q1 print and a large descending wedge (bullish) + inverse head/shoulders (bullish) so the technical direction is about 65/35 leaning bearish in my view.

To be clear, I'm hoping the best for $TSLA as a business but I've been shrewd when it comes to an investment perspective (hence writing calls at 300-414 and mostly selling above $250). I identified 2023-24 as demand gap years (I still believe 2023 was propped up by IRA) back in 2022 and continue to believe 2026+ will present the next growth wave for $TSLA as a stock). Not trying to brag, just trying to help investors manage expectations. Not financial advice.

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I should add that the company compiled consensus *median* is 431k. The actual average is 443k.


Summary: Base case $600 by 2030, bull $1200-1500 on FSD/Robotics; bear $330 or lower.

@garyblack00 Reasonable base case and I agree with most of this except GM ex-RC bottoming. I have $600 as my base case 2030 too. If FSD and Robotics flourish, bull case $1200-1500. Bear case is around $330 or lower.

Attached is my updated 2024-2030 $TSLA volume, margin, and EPS forecasts. I’ve updated consensus ests for 2024-2030 volumes and eps.

I assume EV adoption continues to grow at 35% per year, to 60% by 2030.  I assume gross margins ex-RC stabilize at 17.3% in 2024 and expand to https://t.co/CJg9awpN0r


Summary: Expects TSLA to fill the $146 gap in 2024, with potential confluences in mid-Feb, early May, and mid-Aug.

I've been fortunate enough to be very accurate on $TSLA movement the past 6 months. If I continue this trend, I expect the $146 gap to fill in 2024. The question is when. My charts have a few potential confluences around mid Feb, early May and mid Aug
https://t.co/zfKmFNAWTy


Summary: Short TSLA on technical bear flag and Wyckoff distribution pattern; dismisses fundamental explanations.

@garyblack00 Technicals. Bear flag into Wyckoff distribution. Everyone trying to justify it with fundamental reasoning is wasting their time.

No clear reason why $TSLA weak today (-2.8% vs NDX -0.1%). China weekly ins registrations were 3,200 which is respectable (+220% QoQ, +52% YoY); always low the first week of the quarter since emphasis is on exports to Europe. Maybe investors feel other mega caps offer better


This is very bearish. I've followed $TSLA for almost a decade as an investor. This ranks up there as one of the most concerning departures with Zach and Karpathy.

Summary: Calls Baglino's departure very bearish for TSLA, ranking it among the most concerning executive exits in company history.

This is very bearish. I’ve followed $TSLA for almost a decade as an investor. This ranks up there as one of the most concerning departures with Zach and Karpathy.

Would like to thank Drew for all his efforts. Battery day was one of my fav events I’ve ever seen. 18 years with Elon is no easy task.

$TSLA

TESLA SENIOR VP DREW BAGLINO IS SAID TO LEAVE THE COMPANY


Summary: Bearish TSLA: Q1/Q2 2024 volume decline risk + margin compression with still-high forward multiples; advises waiting on any long entry.

You can wait on $TSLA Puru. I have some of the best price predictions/insights on the stock for the last 5+ years. 2024-25 ex-FSD level 5 breakthrough is looking bleak. FSD 12 is promising upside but Q1/Q2 2024 at risk of YoY volume decline (would be disastrous for the stock) + margin compression (forward multiples still high). I bought sub $40 and sold above $300 and shorted since $260 fwiw.

After monster run, reduced position in $NVDA

Increased $MBLY and $GTLB

Watching $TSLA for starter position for Optimus opportunity


Summary: Bullish TSLA long-term on Cybertruck ramp and AI milestones; near-term headwinds from deliveries and margins keep Wall Street cautious until 2024-25.

@realMeetKevin While I agree - I think sentiment won’t change until 2024-25 when CT ramps and more tangible milestones on the AI front are unlocked. Short term has many headwinds (deliveries likely down QoQ + margin pressure). LT investors should be happy but WS still <12 month outlook

A few months ago, I WARNED that $TSLA was HEAVILY under-capitalized by institutions, especially after Bank of America released THIS report, which we covered on YT.

This basically says:
~Only 35% of funds have Tesla
~Of those 35%, their allocation is relatively LOW

Compared to https://t.co/c7g4QmbXDW


Summary: Betting FB outperforms AMZN on market cap gap over the next year; long FB relative to AMZN.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

$fb and $amzn only some $300m in market cap difference. Interesting to see how this compares next year. I'm betting $fb widens the gap


Summary: Bearish TSLA: multi-year diamond top on log chart with earnings as the potential breakdown trigger; prior 2023 diamond top already fulfilled its target.

$TSLA critical multi-year diamond top on log chart. Earnings print is a breakpoint candidate. https://t.co/9scNz7boBo

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Some context, $TSLA formed a diamond top in 2023 which fulfilled its price target recently

https://t.co/I342RkRFrb


I'm leaning towards upside with long calls I've gotten since 600-730 and again today at 880. $1200 is my short-term PT; $1400 2025 PT

Summary: Long NVDA via calls with $1200 short-term PT and $1400 2025 PT, based on fundamentals, TA, dark pool, and options flow; still holding May calls.

$NVDA bull pennant into GTC next week - $1200 is my short-term PT; $1400 2025 PT. Months of research/planning. Based on fundamentals, TA, darkpool prints and option flow. Of course, $NVDA can sell off next week during the conference, as all things (especially trades) are a spectrum of probabilities. I'm leaning towards upside with long calls I've gotten since 600-730 and again today at 880

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Call flow for $NVDA has also been extremely bullish this week, filtering above $1m and above ask (very likely long positions) https://t.co/2GPgF9reCo

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Update: haven't opened/closed any $NVDA calls. Felt like the conference was within expectations but still bullish with platform potential and energy savings above expectations (I believe). Want to see $NVDA hold above 1h ichi cloud and break above 920 fib chan

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Today we have $NVDA breaking above the 1h ichi cloud and the very resistant ~920 fib chan which it tested for more than a week (and through #GTC2024 )

Next short term targets are $950-970 then $1000 (psychological number + fib chan) and $1080.

$1240 PT 2024 remains unchanged.

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Closed some call spreads today for 2.5x. Still holding April and May calls

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Closed all my April calls at a loss - holding May still. I expect chop between 820-960 until next earnings. Will look to exit May calls around 920-950 unless I see a bullish pattern form (right now it's predominantly bearish)

Overall net gains were exceptional for $NVDA


Summary: Bearish TSLA: current 84x P/E is too high in a 4%+ rate environment; valuation only made sense during ZIRP.

@alojoh 84x is too high if rates stay elevated (4%+). 80x made sense during ZIRP

Based on my estimates, Tesla currently trades at 84.2x P/E.

Historically, Tesla traded around 70x-75x on later reported numbers (ie 100% forecast accuracy). Assuming my forecasts are broadly correct, Tesla enterred overvaluation territory with a P/E in the 80ies and based on https://t.co/AmE8ahKKRu


Forward PE is above 50. It's too high. That's what matters.

Summary: TSLA forward PE above 50 is too high; implied overvaluation bearish stance.

@oguzerkan @StockMarketNerd Forward PE is above 50. It’s too high. That’s what matters.

@StockMarketNerd $TSLA is currently trading at 34 PE which gives it $147 per share.

It looks hard for 2024 deliveries to pass 2023 deliveries.

So, if you subtract $0.60 from 2023 Full Year Eps of $4.30, you get $3.70 in annual eps.

Even at 34 PE, it implies 17% overvaluation for $TSLA.


Summary: Expects TSLA to reverse at multi-year resistance trendline rather than break out to new ATH.

@TSLAFanMtl basic TA is not bogus, and is evident by the millions in salaries it pays out to traders annually. Yes, this trendline is on every noob to pro's charts and will likely start a reversal

I know some of you think technical analysis is bogus, and that’s fine. But I think there is some merit to it.

Regardless, from a TA perspective, $TSLA is approaching multi-yr resistance. A break of this line would be very bullish and open up the prospects of new ATH. https://t.co/FZPTIiBtE9