Summary: RELY is one of the author's largest positions; bullish on digital cross-border remittance growth.

One of our largest positions, $RELY Remitly reports after close today.

Digital x-border remittance markets are strong this year with $WU and $EEFT reporting healthy YoY transaction and revenue growth.

---

There level of dilution is standard for a tech firm with their growth.


Summary: Endorses long XMTR after beat-beat earnings with 25% marketplace revenue growth and EBITDA improvement.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

$XMTR beat beat, +42% on earnings

-Q2 market place rev growth 25% YoY
-Big adj. EBITDA improvement to ~3mm
-# Accounts with >50k spend increases 24%

We are long Xometry $XMTR

The leading disruptor in digital manufacturing and is in the ~second inning of a large secular growth story.

Business background & Thesis below 🧵


Summary: Expects significantly more QE under next Fed chair with single mandate to keep borrowing rates low; bullish on long-duration Treasuries.

buybacks of treasuries are the province of the Fed, not the Treasury.

the next Fed chair Trump appoints in 2026 will have marching orders to operate under a single mandate: keep borrowing rates low.

expect significantly more QE in our future.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who took a dim view of his predecessor’s debt issuance policy by alleging it inappropriately influenced financial conditions, said Treasury could increase buybacks of off-the-run securities if needed to stabilize markets https://t.co/0txeGybDkJ


We threw the towel in here. And no, the buybacks don't impress us.

Summary: Exiting/bearish on FISV; dismisses the $13.5B buyback thesis as unimpressive.

We threw the towel in here. And no, the buybacks don’t impress us. $FISV

Today, $FISV said they will generate $13.5 in free cash flow during 2027-29, and it will all go to share repurchases. That is 47% of the current market cap.


Summary: Long DNA at ~$220M EV; pivoting to robotics/AI dark-lab automation with viable differentiated tech, risk/reward skewed favorable despite early-stage traction.

$DNA could be interesting. The company is transitioning from a synthetic biology play that was an utter failure (stock is down ~99% since highs) into more of a robotics/AI play focused on the future of “dark labs.” Multiple expert calls seem to verify the underlying automation tech is viable and differentiated.

The company is burning roughly ~$150mm annually so has a few years of runway. With only ~220mm in EV the risk/reward skew appears favorable but highly non-concrete given traction is in early stages.


Summary: Bullish RELY as top EM payments pick; expects +20% revenue growth for the next decade.

@Eyal__Weiss Thanks Eyal, our favorite player in the EM space is $RELY. I think they will grow revenues at +20% for the next decade.

@pernasresearch Nice write-up. As a shareholder I agree that they are fairly priced (which is a good thing BTW).

Regarding EM, indeed that there are other players growing very fast in the EM space. Attached is a slide from the latest investors presentation of $DLO, showing that the growth in https://t.co/TYxe2AFkSH


Summary: Bullish SPT: SBC overhang screens bad but structural changes imminent as super-voting rights expire in December.

@joinyellowbrick @maxwiethe Yes that is in part why we are bullish, because it screens bad and the SBC problem (which is huge) is likely going to see big structural changes soon. It’s just not sustainable at this rev growth rate. Super voting rights expire in Dec.

@maxwiethe @pernasresearch @pernasresearch re: $SPT https://t.co/FEaYidYQ0L


Summary: Author views Remitly as a generational hold in digital payments/remittances.

I sat down with @TIP_Network  to discuss a few things:

· Our investment philosophy and track record
· Why portfolio management is a critical driver of returns
· The role of working capital and why investors should understand it deeply
· Digital payments and remittances, including why I view Remitly as a generational hold
· Where I see opportunities in AI for public equity investors

Thanks to @Clay_Finck for the interview!

On today’s episode of We Study Billionaires, @Clay_Finck is joined by Deiya Pernas @pernasresearch to discuss his investing philosophy, why he sees opportunity for investors in the digital payments space, and why he is closely following developments in AI.

Tune in to the https://t.co/9rn4vbmMvp


Summary: WU is the only remittance player vulnerable to a US ban on undocumented-worker remittances; implied bearish.

@PD13158196 The only player that is vulnerable to this is WU

25% of all remittance payments are sent by an undocumented worker

$WU $RELY $EFFT $IDT $IMXI $TIGO

“The White House announced that the United States will prohibit illegal immigrants from sending remittances abroad” (translation) https://t.co/0A6Zc29uwN


Summary: Autodesk seen as defensible against AI threat; implied bullish stance.

@pernasresearch What about Autodesk/Rand AI threat?


Summary: Bearish THRY despite 45% drop; dismisses it as not a respectable product company, rejecting entry.

$THRY down ~45% on admission of higher churn and guidance of ~0% growth in '26. If this were a respectable product company this might make for a good entry (we don't think it is).

I know lots of $THRY bulls out there. We passed on the company on our Stock Sonar 5/24/2023. Is it worth another look? https://t.co/L4UZJS88Qa


Summary: Holds ongoing long position in VPG as Tesla robot supplier play.

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'

@SingularityRes We have been long $VPG for a while now hah. Agreed with the other areas. Will be interesting to see what TSLA insources vs not.

@pernasresearch Metals, Chips, electricity equipment manufacturers, grid upgrade etc.

I know $VPG is a supplier to Tesla robots- nice place to start


Summary: Bullish PSFE: strong Q4 beat, 10% TPV growth, Digital Wallets worth more than entire EV, trading at under 7x EV/EBITDA.

$PSFE Q4/FY earnings were strong and surpassed our expectations: +10% TPV growth, +5% organic rev growth.

the only thing we didn't like to see was the buybacks which will take a back seat to deleveraging in '26. Growing company trading at <7x EV/EBITDA.

We don’t understand Paysafe’s valuation $PSFE. The space is deeply out of favor since $FISV blow-up.

Paysafe has a single asset that is worth significantly more than the entire EV of the company: Digital Wallets.

Digital Wallets carries a 45% EBITDA margin and ~$825mm of fwd https://t.co/BpAx3lP8Jw


Summary: Discloses active long position in Xometry.

@pernasresearch Not exactly pure product but your statement remind me of $XMTR.

instant manufacturing quotes + supplier matching with intelligence layer on top of it.

quoting algorithms, tolerance and DFM logic,& supplier reliability, capacity, and lead-time prediction.


Summary: Endorses bearish view on DUOL as overvalued at 20x FY25 revenue.

Was a great report from $DUOL.  But ah it is trading at 20x FY25 revenue after today's increase in guidance.  Shorted a bit ~453.  Will either cover ah (or pm tomorrow) under 430 or will sell puts against it in reg hours tomw.


Summary: Aggressively added to SPT; bullish on defensible moat via deep API integrations, premium network partnerships, and .8x EV/Sales valuation.

$SPT with a double beat and raise. At .8 EV/SALES, it trades at the rock bottom of the SaaS Application cohort. Stock reaction +9%

I noticed on the call that management is getting better at articulating why it's moat is defensible:

Deep API integrations and “premium network partnerships” across major social platforms are positioned as a core differentiator for Sprout.

90%+ of customers operate across five or more social networks simultaneously, increasing the need for a centralized orchestration and data normalization layer across fragmented ecosystems.

Maintaining integrations across dozens of evolving social APIs is a significant engineering challenge, requiring continuous adaptation to changing schemas, permissions, endpoints, rate limits, compliance requirements, and platform policies.

The company also spends a significant amount on data feeds from networks for social listening (~9mm annually)

Deep value SaaS small cap $SPT. We have added aggressively at recent prices and made our research on Sprout Social public…link in the comments.

Had fun doing this pod with @AndrewRangeley .
https://t.co/Dlv5a6eA7v


Summary: Trimmed TLT (bearish); rotated into GLD on thesis that countries will reduce USD/US asset dependency.

@orrdavid We trimmed TLT and recycled some of that capital into GLD. It seems the more the US looks like a gangster on the world stage the more countries are going to try and look for ways to reduce dependency.

The most talented portfolio manager I know had a 30% long $TLT position last weekend.  He sold it first thing when the premarket opened on Monday.

I asked him how he knew to sell.

He replied, "A hunch."


recycled some of that capital into GLD. It seems the more the US looks like a gangster on the world stage the more countries are going to try and look for ways to reduce dependency


Summary: Bullish UPWK: GSV growth disproving bear thesis despite macro headwinds.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

$UPWK quietly disproving the core bear thesis-- GSV is finally showing growth despite all the macro doom. https://t.co/g3tB4uxbrN


Summary: Bullish on FIG; likes the stock but wants a better entry price.

@Invesquotes We like FIG, wish it was cheaper

If $FIG reports good earnings that’s bad for $ADBE because they are eating their lunch

If $FIG reports bad earnings that’s bad for $ADBE because AI is eating their lunch

No way to win in this market!


Summary: Long NRP: clean balance sheet, ~20% yield, thermal coal comeback potential, soda ash profits expected in 2026-27.

Thoughts on $NRP earnings:

Management remains focused on increasing distributions.

Only ~$140M LT debt left—over $1B in costly preferreds & warrants paid off in the last decade.

Thermal coal could make a comeback in 2025 as plant retirements get postponed (onshoring & data centers demand more baseload power—see Duke Energy).

Soda ash is volatile, but as a low-cost producer, $NRP is positioned to benefit once supply/demand normalizes—expecting larger profits in 2026-27.

Even with weak commodity prices, NRP is yielding ~20%. It could dip lower, but with this balance sheet not concerned.


Summary: Long RELY as an example of buying cheap with strong thesis and adding along the way.

@MaaizKhan If it’s not working, valuation is cheap, no terminal value risk + strong thesis. We would buy immediately an add along the way. Similar to what is happening with $RELY. Obv patience is key here.

@pernasresearch Surprisingly this is worth considering for stocks you’re not in yet… waiting for a stock to start to work has saved me some headache especially in larger cap names.

Not as true for special situations or microcaps.


Summary: Bullish XMTR; author calls it a generational hold.

@trackdalf Yuup. It is looking more and more like a generational hold.


Summary: Still bullish on Remitly.

@TraderOver1 We will post something the week of the 5th on it. On X. Still bullish obv.

@pernasresearch Do you guys have any open/free updated look on Remitly by any chance? (I guess not) Where could I find your latest piece of analysis on it?

Thanks! Nice content👍


Summary: Avoid VITL until social-media perception problem is resolved; premium brand highly vulnerable to reputational damage.

$VITL Vital Farms. Down 62% YTD. As investors, sometimes you don’t have to worry about perception problems affecting fundamentals too much, and sometimes you absolutely do. This is a perfect example of when you do.

Vital Farms hasn’t taken the social media backlash seriously enough. Given the premium nature of their product, they’re highly vulnerable. We can't touch it unless the perception issue is adequately addressed. They should fire their PR department.


Summary: Still bearish on INMD despite 60% cash/mcap and 30% FCF yield to EV.

@IfkovicsA Yes, still bearish. Even with attractive optics

@pernasresearch You are still bearis on $INMD?

60% mcap in cash, 30% fcf yield relative to EV…


It's the best and largest freelancer market place. Tons of potential

Summary: Still bullish UPWK as best/largest freelancer marketplace with significant potential, though GMV consolidation taking longer than expected.

@k_ristovski It’s the best and largest freelancer market place. Tons of potential but GMV will probably take longer to consolidate than we originally thought.

The only other account I’ve seen bullish on $UPWK was @pernasresearch


Summary: Endorses TXN as a favored holding.

@pernasresearch BKNG, MUSA, CME, WRB, TXN


Summary: Bullish smaller-cap SaaS sector: incumbents will adapt to agentic AI threat, market underestimates their resilience; more value in smaller names.

WCLD WisdomTree Cloud Computing ETF proxies US SaaS sector

Thoughts on SaaS

-No, SaaS is not dead.

-“Vibe coding” replacing enterprise SaaS is not a serious argument. Building a competing SaaS product still requires making something meaningfully better, and in that delta, human ingenuity remains the bottleneck.

-AI tools are not the sole province of new entrants. The same advantage applies to incumbents.

-It is now easier to build a SaaS tool, but harder to build a SaaS company.

-The real threat is agents, but SaaS will adapt.

-The market is overlooking SaaS companies’ ability to make advances in the agentic layer.

-SaaS companies are not dinosaurs and, by and large, will respond well to the existential agentic threat.

-One of the reasons this shift is different for incumbents (SaaS) is that the adaptation response (implementing agents) doesn't have to cannibalize their economics and could even improve them.

-Most SaaS companies will retain important touchpoints with customers even in an agentic world.

-GUIs will still be a destination. This is a form factor optimized for our visual cortex. Even if part of the interaction layer is absorbed by agents, there will still be a need to go into applications. Just as fears that Alexa voice would replace online search proved wrong, there is a visual, low-friction nature to GUIs that give them staying power.

-From an investing standpoint, more value exists in smaller-cap SaaS names, but selectivity is important.

-While the future is uncertain, it is clear that some of the selling pressure is being fueled by narratives designed to provoke fear.


Summary: Bearish ADBE; buyback is a warning sign, not reassurance, for investors.

@Invesquotes Agreed, if anything this would worry me as an ADBE investor.

Seen a lot of posts claiming that Adobe's $ADBE buyback is not something a dying business would do.

While one can debate if Adobe is a "dying" business or not, I don't think that's the correct way to view this. Many companies that ended up being in secular decline (again, not https://t.co/L1WFWfcRmG


Summary: Bearish DXCM on CMS bidding pricing pressure on CGM devices and GLP-1 headwinds.

Accidently deleted this tweet:

$DXCM still no bulls have commented. We see vulnerabilities regarding new CMS bidding putting pricing pressure on CGM devices along with GLP-1 penetration presenting headwinds. https://t.co/MyKfBO5chY


Summary: Expects CVNA to hit new highs within a week.

@atelicinvest it will be making new highs in a week

Is there a polymarket bet on which year we finish arguing about whether CVNA is a complete fraud or the next trillion dollar co?


New Blackwell chips dramatically changes things: even if it's 2× the cost, it is 5x the throughput. Revenue grows way faster than cost, so margins climb sharply.

Summary: Blackwell's 5x throughput vs 2x cost drives sharply higher AI inference margins, implying strong demand for NVDA's latest chips.

Model-layer economics already look strong.

An H200 at $2.50/hr TCO can conservatively push about 3M tokens/hr. With mini-model API pricing around $2 per 1M tokens, that’s ~$6/hr revenue. This is ~50% gross margins.

New Blackwell chips dramatically changes things: even if it’s 2× the cost, it is 5x the throughput. Revenue grows way faster than cost, so margins climb sharply.


Summary: Added to Remitly position post-selloff; views decline as overdone, thesis intact at ~1.5x EV/sales.

@TraderOver1 We added after the sell off. Overdone, thesis still intact. Trading at ~1.5x EV to sales.

@pernasresearch U guys got any thoughts on recent action on Remitly? Earnings and pa?


Summary: Long PSFE: Digital Wallets segment alone worth ~$3.75B vs ~$2.7B total EV; levered to 'good enough' economy for sharp re-rate.

We don’t understand Paysafe’s valuation $PSFE. The space is deeply out of favor since $FISV blow-up.

Paysafe has a single asset that is worth significantly more than the entire EV of the company: Digital Wallets.

Digital Wallets carries a 45% EBITDA margin and ~$825mm of fwd revenue, ~$375mm of EBITDA, on LDD TPV growth. It’s highly portable/salable. At a ~10× EBITDA, the Digital Wallets segment alone is worth ~$3.75B vs. Paysafe’s current EV of ~$2.7B.

It’s a highly levered name, but if the economy continues its state of "good enough", we think the equity could re-rate sharply. Disc: long


$PSFE we have added to our position. Organic rev growth of ~8% guided for '25. Cash flow is strong and the company continues to pay down debt. Volumes continue to increase and take rates remain solid. We like Paysafe's positioning.

Summary: Added to long PSFE on ~8% organic rev growth guide, strong cash flow, debt paydown, and solid volumes/take rates despite post-earnings drop.

$PSFE we have added to our position.

Price dropped ~20% post-earnings. Surprising given the company pre-released the results on 2/11.

Organic rev growth of ~8% guided for '25. Cash flow is strong and the company continues to pay down debt.

Volumes continue to increase and take rates remain solid. We like Paysafe's positioning.

We are long $PSFE Paysafe

Stock is up 18% on takeover rumors. Our deep dive was released yesterday (epic timing).

Business background + Thesis:🧵


Summary: Bullish Dr. Martens: issues cyclical not structural, brand intact, inventory rightsized, D2C Americas recovering — rerating thesis remains.

$DOCS.L For our call on Dr. Martens...it's taken a while for a rerating and we missed the collapse in the sandals segment, but this is a unique brand that cannot be replicated.

The issues were cyclical, not structural. The brand is in no way impaired. We saw signs of a category rebound as other boot brands posted sequential improvements.

-Revenue down 8% YoY
-£83M in debt repaid
-D2C growth returns in the Americas
-Inventory reduced by £67M, ahead of expectations
-Rightsized inventory has management positioned for growth


$CGEH now up +600% since our initiation. We still own in size

Summary: Still holding CGEH in size; ongoing long position with implied continued upside.

Capstone $CGEH up ~150% since our research note in August with still plenty of potential upside: https://t.co/o5G7lLgYTM


Summary: Endorses bullish NRP view; adds thermal coal tailwind from deferred plant retirements and rising power demand.

@InvestSpecial Great points, thanks for sharing. Would add that thermal coal could see a new lease on life with coal plant retirements being pushed out due to EPA stance and power demand.

$NRP is starting to look interesting.

This is a cheap coal (80% met coal) royalty business that has been on a deleveraging path for the last 10 years. The company will likely pay off its remaining debt this year and begin paying dividends. Considering that it trades at less than


Summary: Long FISV; insider buying $1.5mm worth of shares, stock rebounding aggressively, seen as positive for the sector.

CFO and Chief Admin buy ~$1.5mm worth of shares of $FISV. Fiserv rebounding aggressively which could be just what the sector needs. disc: long https://t.co/tEpmXf91Az


Summary: Long SPT aggressively, framing it as a deep-value SaaS small cap and publishing research.

Deep value SaaS small cap $SPT. We have added aggressively at recent prices and made our research on Sprout Social public…link in the comments.

Had fun doing this pod with @AndrewRangeley .
https://t.co/Dlv5a6eA7v

---

https://t.co/yWd2PjuHra


Summary: Bullish RELY after Q2 beat; author dismisses all four bear-case fears (remittance tax, OBBB KYC burden, stablecoins, US/MEX corridor slowdown) as non-applicable.

$RELY pretty much smashed Q2. This one feels great. We had a few conversation with bears and strongly felt that none of the below fears would impact Remitly.

1. Remittance tax

2. Onerous operational layers (KYC etc) as a result of OBBB regs

3. Stablecoins

4. US/MEX corridor slowdown – (this was mainly attributable to illegal immigrants that were afraid to show up at their local cash remittance business. Not applicable to $RELY).


Summary: Long-term bullish on remittance providers on structural immigration tailwinds from low birth rates in western countries.

Birth rates in many western countries are lower than replacement rates.

This is why, even with the rise of nationalism globally,  immigration trends will continue to gain momentum.

bullish LT for remittance providers $rely $wise

Germany has a shortage of workers - so it's turning to India for help https://t.co/FE8FWs9mAE


Wise plc, LSE-listed WISE.L; remittance context confirms


If this narrative continues it's a generational buying opp for $V

Summary: Long V as a generational buying opportunity if the stablecoin-disrupting-payments narrative persists, given author sees no real headway in remittances.

I’ll continue looking for evidence to the contrary but I don’t see this going anywhere beyond crypto use cases. In no way are stablecoins making headway in remittances—like, zero. Perhaps there are some treasury functions that could benefit. If this narrative continues it’s a generational buying opp for $V.

$CRCL IPO will likely perform well. This likely will bring attention to the fact that stablecoins are a real crypto use case solving real problems (remittances etc.). I believe they can be a meaningful tailwind for banks and companies that can take advantage. Which is why we see


Summary: Bearish BILL: rising competition, slowing growth, and stretched valuation.

@RagingVentures rising competition and slowing growth. Valuation was also far too rich


Summary: Still sees plenty of upside in CGEH after 150% gain since August research note.

Capstone $CGEH up ~150% since our research note in August with still plenty of potential upside: https://t.co/o5G7lLgYTM


Summary: Endorses bullish view on RELY: optionality from product expansion and valuation support.

@Uzocapital Agree, lots of optionality and valuation support

@pernasresearch surprised theres been less spotlight on fact $RELY is undergoing the same transition as $WISE in 2018….expanding beyond just sending (interchange / interest etc) can double the earnings power vs remaining siloed to remittances….all while headcount now is kept flat


It is not clear to us how SaaS businesses built around mechanistic models maintain strong pricing power in an AI world. The problem is that the primary customers are large pharmaceutical companies that increasingly possess the data, compute, and now AI tooling to internalize more of these capabilities themselves.

Summary: Bearish CERT and SLP: AI erodes pricing power as pharma customers internalize mechanistic modeling capabilities; moat weaker than perceived.

$CERT $SLP It is not clear to us how SaaS businesses built around mechanistic models maintain strong pricing power in an AI world.

Mechanistic drug development modeling (physics based) becomes more important in an AI world, not less. Drug development becomes increasingly simulation driven. What we do not buy is the argument that AI and mechanistic modeling remain separate layers.

AI is getting very good at building mechanistic models, refining them, and calling them autonomously during simulations.

The “secret sauce” behind companies like Certara and Simulations Plus is not the formulas themselves. Most of the underlying science already exists in academic literature. The moat is parameterization: the correct biological assumptions, distributions, calibration, validation, and real-world refinement.

The problem is that the primary customers are large pharmaceutical companies that increasingly possess the data, compute, and now AI tooling to internalize more of these capabilities themselves.


surprised $RELY is down on the great print... $RELY trades at ~13x '28 EV/FCF. Still cheap for a secular grower with optionality from adjacent services

Summary: Long RELY: 25% rev growth, record EBITDA, trades at ~13x '28 EV/FCF — cheap for a secular compounder with adjacent optionality.

surprised $RELY is down on the great print

Q1 recap: Rev grew 25% YoY to $453mm with send volume +37%. Adj EBITDA reached a record $102mm (~22% margin) while FCF exceeded $70mm. SBC trended down to 6% of revenue.

After adding back ~80% of RELY’s net cash for regulatory/operational WC needs, we get to ~5.4B EV. We think the company can comfortably sustain ~22% rev CAGR through ’28 while scaling to ~25% adj EBITDA margins. Assuming SBC is ~5% of rev by ’28 and haircutting FCF for ongoing WC requirements, $RELY trades at ~13x ’28 EV/FCF. Still cheap for a secular grower with optionality from adjacent services.


Expect more deals like the one below. Even with efficiency gains from players like DeepSeek, a major short-term supply/demand imbalance in compute remains. $apld

Summary: Long APLD: video AI compute demand (1000x vs text) keeps supply/demand imbalance favorable for more data-center deals.

Expect more deals like the one below. Video generation models like Veo 2 require ~1000x more compute than text. Even with efficiency gains from players like DeepSeek, a major short-term supply/demand imbalance in compute remains. $apld

https://t.co/uBzdmytngQ


Summary: Bearish DLO: take rates under merciless pressure and couldn't gain confidence they decline asymptotically rather than collapse.

this is instructive and can be generalized:

The argument: “it’s acceptable that take rates decline as long as TPV growth is robust” is only a good argument if you can gain confidence that take rates are asymptotically declining. We couldn’t get there with $DLO.

$DLO dLocal reports earnings this week. It’s a beloved name on here and we gave it a hard look - but passed.

Given competitive dynamics and market structure, we think take rates are going to be under merciless pressure.

Good luck to those long the name and thanks for suggesting


Summary: Lab automation sector named as the first big beneficiary of Gen AI in biotech discovery.

Lab automation basket: TMO, DHR, Agilent, Repligen, Azenta

Gen AI transforms biotech discovery, slashing early drug design from years to months. However clinical trials remain the bottleneck: slow, expensive, and uncertain. AI accelerated the start but not yet the finish. Early days yet with lab automation looking like the first big beneficiary