Summary: Long FUBO on revenue growth, ad platform expansion, DirecTV blackout tailwinds, and likely antitrust lawsuit win enabling content unbundling and cost reduction.

1/n I think $FUBO's risk reward here is compelling. The position is only 3% of my portfolio but I will add more if it drops to $1.55 before earnings.

Financials:

$Fubo remains on track to be profitable and free cash flow positive in FY’25. I believe the company is inflecting. The highlights from the last earnings call that make me bullish:

1. Revenue Growth: $Fubo reported impressive revenue growth of 26% year-over-year in North America, reaching $382.7 million in Q2 2024, with global revenue up 25% to $391 million. Subscriber numbers in North America grew by 24%, totaling 1.45 million.

2. Advertising Revenue: Advertising continues to be a key strength for Fubo, generating $25.8 million in Q2, a 14% year-over-year increase. The company’s ad growth is expected to be even higher in Q3 2024 due to election-related advertising, which traditionally boosts revenues during election periods.

3. New Advertising Platform: $FUBO is testing a new advertising platform, which aims to optimize ad placements and increase revenue. This platform is expected to further improve Fubo's already strong position in the ad space, particularly in sports content where it continues to see high CPMs.

4. Profitability Progress: $Fubo has made significant strides toward profitability, with a 511 basis point increase in gross margin to 13%. Net loss decreased to $25.8 million from $54.2 million year-over-year, while the adjusted EBITDA margin improved from -9.8% to -2.8%.

5. Debt Reduction: Fubo strategically repurchased $46.9 million in convertible debt below par value, improving financial flexibility and reducing overall debt, all while minimizing shareholder dilution.

6. Fubo Free Tier & Ad-Supported Growth: Fubo launched its "Fubo Free Tier," which offers nearly 200 free ad-supported TV channels. This free-tier service is a potential driver for advertising revenue growth as more users join the platform, providing Fubo with new opportunities to increase ad impressions and expand its user base.

7. Sports Programming Success: Fubo's strength in sports programming remains a key driver of subscriber growth. The company saw strong performance from major soccer events and added strategic sports content like the YES Network, which boosted trial sign-ups and subscriber retention.

These catalysts, including the new advertising platform, election-related ad growth, and the potential for ad revenue from free subscribers, position $Fubo for continued success and further growth in the coming quarters.

---

2/n I first came across $FUBO when a friend mentioned it last week after he subscribed to the service to watch college football games in Canada, as other platforms were unable to provide the coverage.

While researching the company, I also stumbled upon the ongoing @DIRECTV blackout situation with ESPN. Many subscribers mistakenly blame DirecTV for the blackout, but the real culprits are actually the sports-focused television networks, such as ESPN, TNT, and Fox Sports.

To better understand the situation, it’s important to break down the TV industry into three fundamental tiers:

1. Creation: The development of television content.

2. Programming: The packaging of that content by networks.

3. Distribution: The delivery of television to consumers.

Here's how these tiers operate:

1. Sports leagues and governing bodies create content by organizing and scheduling sporting events, which they then license to television networks.

2. Sports-focused networks like ESPN, TNT, and Fox Sports, along with traditional broadcasters such as ABC and Fox, package the sporting events for broadcast, adding value through commentary and other production elements. These networks, in turn, license the distribution rights to distributors.

3. Distributors, such as DirecTV and Fubo, deliver these packaged channels to consumers.

The networks generate revenue by selling advertising during the broadcasts and through licensing their channels to distributors via carriage agreements, which dictate the terms of channel access, advertising rights, and programming inventory.

The Bundling Issue:

While this system has benefits, it comes with the significant drawback of bundling. Programmers often force distributors to carry multiple channels as part of a bundle. For instance, Disney might require a distributor to carry its entertainment channels, like the Disney Channel, in exchange for access to ESPN. Distributors have little say in this, meaning consumers end up with channels they don't want or watch.

Bundling comes with minimum penetration requirements, meaning distributors must offer certain channels to a specific percentage of their subscriber base. For example, if $FUBO agrees to distribute Disney’s Nat Geo Wild, it may be required to make the channel available to 85% of its subscribers, regardless of how many actually watch it.

Programmers often use this bundling to extract more revenue from underperforming channels by tying them to high-demand channels (e.g., ESPN). They can double their profits by bundling must-have channels with less popular ones, while setting high penetration requirements to maximize affiliate fees. This approach also provides an incubator for niche channels that might otherwise struggle to be profitable.

Unbundling is rare for sports-focused networks because these channels are extremely valuable to both programmers and distributors. However, recent shifts in consumer behaviour, driven by changes in the pay-TV industry, are challenging this traditional "fat" bundle model, where hundreds of channels are offered for a single monthly fee. Consumers are increasingly rejecting these bundles in favour of more tailored options, forcing both programmers and distributors to adapt.

The cost of these fat bundles is then passed on to consumers, leading to a 30-50% increase in prices. In reality, DirecTV is fighting on behalf of consumers, as escalating TV deals keep raising the costs for distributors, which ultimately get passed down to the viewers.

Both @DIRECTV  and Fubo have been pushing for a "skinny bundle," which would offer consumers more choice and lower prices, but their requests have been met with resistance. The defendants in the Venu case even falsely claimed they were never asked for a "skinny sports bundle," despite being approached multiple times. It’s clear that there's little intention from the networks, particularly ESPN, to offer such an option, even as DirecTV advocates for it.

---

3/n The ongoing contract dispute between Disney and @DirecTV, which led to the removal of key channels like ESPN and ABC from DirecTV’s lineup, has left many subscribers frustrated, particularly as the blackout coincided with the start of the NFL and college football seasons. With sports being such a crucial driver of viewership, the blackout has had a significant impact, disrupting Monday Night Football, college football games, and even the first presidential debate.

While many consumers initially blamed DirecTV for the blackout, the root of the issue lies with the networks, including ESPN and Disney, pushing for higher fees and forcing bundled channel agreements. DirecTV is pushing back, advocating for a "skinny" bundle that would allow them to offer fewer channels at a lower cost, aligning with consumer demand as more viewers cut the cord and opt for more affordable streaming options.

In response to the blackout and to minimise customer churn, DirecTV is offering a $30 credit to customers who switch to streaming services like Sling or $Fubo, both of which carry ESPN’s full suite of sports networks. This move is a clear win for $Fubo, which specializes in sports content and offers subscribers access to all major live sporting events, including college football, a major draw during this time of year.

By offering this credit, DirecTV is essentially funnelling frustrated sports fans directly to Fubo, where they can continue watching the content they love without interruption. For Fubo, this represents a significant opportunity to attract new subscribers who may decide to stick around for the long term, particularly given the platform’s robust offering of sports programming.

Fubo is well-positioned to capitalise on the blackout, and the added $30 incentive from DirecTV could give potential subscribers the final push they need to make the switch. As the dispute drags on and sports fans search for alternatives, Fubo stands to benefit from increased visibility and subscriber growth, reinforcing its position as a top destination for live sports streaming.

This can be clearly seen from the Google Trends data as well. Fubo experiences an uptick in new subscribers during this time but this year’s spike is meaningfully higher than prior years. This means that irrespective of what Fubo gets from the damages from the lawsuit, the business itself is having a huge tailwind and the earnings this quarter will most likely be very strong.

---

4/n In February 2024, Disney, Fox Corporation and Warner Bros announced the formation of a joint venture (the “JV”) to create a new television streaming service centred on live sports content. The JV was known internally among the partners as Venu.

On April 8, 2024, Fubo filed an Injunction (the “Motion”) to temporarily block the JV from launching or stop the JV Defendants from enforcing certain contractual restraints in their licensing agreements which Fubo claims.

When it comes to live sports programming, the 3 companies own over 60% of the telecast rights to nationally broadcast live sports, and an even larger share of the most-watched sports like football and basketball.

After the JV was announced, the JV defendants explicitly agreed to “stay clear” of supporting another platform like theirs for 3 years. If this is not collusion and anti-competitive then what else is? This would have been an existential threat for $FUBO and its stock price dropped almost 75%.

The JV will offer 14 of the top sports channels in the United States completely unbundled from any other of the JV Defendants’ networks. The target consumer will—for the first time—be able to subscribe to a vast array of the sports content. This is the version of a skinny bundle that $FUBO has been asking for but can’t get and the only time it has been granted is this time, to their own JV.

Fubo is seeking relief from anticompetitive practices by Disney, ESPN, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery, which have forced Fubo to pay above-market prices and bundle unwanted non-sports channels with its core sports content. Specifically, Fubo wants to stop these companies from requiring it to license non-essential content (such as entertainment channels) alongside essential sports content, which it argues restricts its ability to offer a streamlined sports-only package at competitive rates.

If Fubo wins the lawsuit, it could achieve the following:

1. Unbundling of Content: Fubo could gain the ability to license and distribute sports channels separately from non-sports content, significantly reducing its licensing costs and allowing it to offer a more affordable sports-focused service to consumers.

2. Lower Prices: Fubo may be able to negotiate more favorable terms in its carriage agreements, reducing the supra-competitive prices it currently pays due to the "most-favored-nation" (MFN) clauses that benefit its competitors like Hulu and YouTube TV. This would enable Fubo to lower its prices for subscribers and leading to an explosive revenue growth and reduction in cost of revenues.

3. Market Positioning: A victory could enhance Fubo's ability to position itself as a pure sports streaming service, aligning with its original vision and giving it a stronger competitive edge in the growing sports streaming market

---

5/n What did the judge say:

I will cover some of the most important lines from the injuction order issued by the judge which make me think that $FUBO is highly likely to win this lawsuit.

It is important to note that getting an injunction is very hard and one is not granted unless there is a 50%+ chance of a company to win the case.

1. “The Court has carefully considered all of the briefing, testimony, evidence, and argument offered in support of and in opposition to the Motion. Because Fubo is likely to be successful in proving its claims that the JV will violate this country’s antitrust laws, because Fubo and American consumers will face irreparable harm in the absence of an injunction, and because the equities and the public interest weigh in favor of preserving the status quo pending full and fair adjudication of all issues in this matter.”

2. “The JV will receive “most favored nation” status on affiliate fees: paying no more than any distributor within an agreed-upon set of six comparable distributors.”

3. “On August 2, 2024, non-parties Sports Fans Coalition, American Economic Liberties Project, the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Open Markets Institute, and Public Knowledge (collectively, the “Amici”) moved for leave to file a brief as amici curiae in support of Fubo’s Motion. The Amici describe themselves as “five organizations devoted to advocacy on behalf of consumers and the public interest in the context of antitrust policy and litigation, as well as other issue areas.”

4. “To obtain a preliminary injunction, therefore, Fubo must make a clear showing that (1) it is likely to succeed on the merits, (2) it is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief, (3) the balance of the equities tips in its favour, and (4) an injunction is in the public interest. For the reasons discussed herein, Fubo has met all four factors.”

5.“To establish a likelihood of success on the merits, a plaintiff need not show that success is an absolute certainty. It need only make a showing that the probability of prevailing is better than fifty percent.’”

6. “Fubo is ultimately likely to succeed in demonstrating that the JV will substantially lessen competition or tend to create a monopoly in contravention of this country’s antitrust laws.”

7. “Applied to the facts of this case, these principles lead inexorably to the conclusion that a joint venture between three horizontal competitor programmers, in a market segment with high barriers to entry and dominated by a relatively small number of companies, who together control “one-half of the essential product of the industry” in a downstream distribution market, must be enjoined as anticompetitive.”

9. “At this preliminary stage of the case, the Court need not perform a comprehensive market analysis.
However, the Court does find, even on an incomplete record, that the JV Defendants are unlikely to be successful in their claims that the broader Pay TV Market is the relevant market.

The Court also finds, for the reasons discussed herein, that Fubo has offered evidence sufficient for a finding that it is likely to succeed in showing that the JV will at least tend to lessen competition in the Live Pay TV Market."

10. “Basically [Charter, Comcast, DIRECTV, Hulu, and YouTube TV are] the only one’s with enough leverage to really push us, plus most operators by the time they renew won’t be big enough to really matter.”) (emphasis added). An explicit agreement with such significant “anticompetitive potential” “warrant[s] scrutiny even in the absence of incipient monopoly.”

---

6/n Risks:

The primary risk to the Fubo investment thesis is dilution. However, this risk is mitigated as management has explicitly acknowledged it during the most recent earnings call, emphasizing that they are sensitive to the issue and have sufficient cash on the balance sheet to avoid further dilution in the near future.

Lawsuit risk exists but is minimal. Based on conversations with two lawyers, there is a strong belief that Fubo is highly likely to win its case, which is reflected in the bond market, where Fubo's bonds have risen from trading at 49% to 78% of face value. This uptick indicates growing confidence in Fubo’s legal position. Additionally, ESPN's insistence that DirecTV agree not to pursue legal action strongly suggests that ESPN is aware of its weak standing, especially in New York courts, which only reinforces the view that Fubo is likely to prevail.

Another potential risk is ESPN’s unwillingness to negotiate with DirecTV, but this is countered by the possibility that DirecTV may file its own lawsuit against ESPN for anti-competitive practices and failing to negotiate in good faith. This threat could pressure ESPN into more favorable terms, further diminishing the risk to Fubo.

There is also a risk that the lawsuit could drag out over time. However, this risk is also not significant. The injunction placed on Venu has already prevented immediate harm, and the ongoing situation with DirecTV has actually strengthened Fubo's business, as it continues to gain subscribers during the blackout. This means that the investment thesis for Fubo is not entirely reliant on a swift resolution to the lawsuit. The company is in a stronger position regardless, with the lawsuit acting as an added potential catalyst rather than a necessity for growth.

Overall, while there are risks, the dilution and legal concerns appear manageable and do not significantly detract from the bullish case for $Fubo.

---

7/7 Conclusion:

$Fubo is in a strong position both operationally and legally, making it a compelling investment opportunity. The business continues to grow, with strong revenue increases, expanding ad platforms, and a growing subscriber base, driven by its sports-centric programming. Fubo's ability to introduce a free ad-supported tier and capitalize on the Disney/DirecTV blackout further strengthens its position, potentially leading to stronger earnings in the upcoming quarters.

While there are risks, they seem manageable. The primary risk of dilution is mitigated, as management has acknowledged it and confirmed they have enough cash to avoid further shareholder dilution. Additionally, lawsuit risk is minimal. Legal experts and bond market trends both suggest that Fubo is highly likely to win the case, as evidenced by the increase in the company’s bond prices. ESPN’s reluctance to negotiate and their push for DirecTV to waive legal claims indicate their acknowledgment of a weak position. Even if the lawsuit drags out, the injunction on Venu has already provided Fubo with protection, and the business is thriving in the interim.

The potential for substantial returns lies in a blue sky scenario where Fubo wins the lawsuit, gains the ability to unbundle content, and secures better terms for its sports-first packages. This would significantly reduce costs and improve profitability. Moreover, any cash settlement from the lawsuit would be an additional boost. With its business fundamentals already strong and thriving, Fubo’s success is not entirely dependent on the lawsuit, but winning would offer a substantial upside to its current trajectory.

In summary, Fubo’s current market position, combined with the potential benefits of the lawsuit, positions the company for both immediate growth and long-term gains. The risks are present but controlled, while the potential for future success, particularly with the "skinny bundles" and a possible settlement, makes the investment case even more compelling.


Excited to see how the $COIN thesis plays out tomorrow.

Summary: Holding COIN long into tomorrow's catalyst; excited about exchange volume hitting 1-yr highs in Nov/Dec.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Financial Data & Stock Exchanges'

Added a little bit more to the position today. Analyst expectations are quite high but the volume on the exchange seems to be materially higher in November and December and appears to have hit a 1 Yr high today.

Added to $DEFTF as well. They reported a significant amount of https://t.co/2eYlF3PGax


Summary: Holds a small speculative long in Brilliant Earth, bullish on Taylor Swift engagement ring search traffic driving lab-grown diamond demand.

Very smart marketing by $BRLT. Taylor Swift's ring is a "Old Mine Cut" and Brilliant Earth is running ads for the keyword and Ranks #1. "Engagement ring" and "lab grown diamond ring" trends have been strong this season and this event could accelerate them even further. Have a small speculative position in the company.


Summary: Strongly bullish FUBO on management execution, multiple catalysts, asymmetric upside potential, and high odds of favorable JV settlement.

For sure. I think the execution has been phenomenol by the management team. Given the tough industry and everything they have had to endure with compeitition and unfair trade practices. There are so many catalysts for $FUBO that I feel like the chances of assymetric upside are immense. The Capri Tapestry situation also makes me think that their chances of succeeding are astronomically high, won't be surprised if the JV settles outside of court.

@IamNGupta8 have a small position. am liking what they are working with despite dominance of Amazon Prime & YoutubeTV. am of the belief that their recent ads (admittedly not as funny as they are imagining) can drive real engagement from potential subscribers. thanks for your thoughts!


Summary: Bullish CELH; expects upcoming Nielsen data to turn positive, plus smart money loading up after orchestrated sell-off.

@DGretta_Author For what’s its worth, here in Canada, they barely had any shelf space. This week Walmart had a huge section just for them. A little tin foily but I think that was an orchestrated attack to dump so smart money could load up. Upcoming Nielsen data is gonna start to look bullish IMO

Here's my Top 10 Catalysts for $CELH stock (no order)
1. Analyst price targets in the $87-90 range
2. In just past 8 months $CELH has doubled number of Institutional investors
3. "water in a can" to compete w Liquid Death
4. SP500 inclusion. Also QQQ inclusion. (MNST already in


Summary: Adding to FUBO long; expects lawsuit win to unlock significant damages and cheaper bundles to boost service appeal.

@LohiaVasumann I am planning to add in the range low as well. I strongly believe that $FUBO wins this lawsuit which unlocks the potential for a significant amount of damages. Also, the company should be able to get cheaper skinny bundles which will make their service more desirable.

@IamNGupta8 Do you believe its a good time to add some $FUBO here with stock price almost around 1.35 levels where you’d suggested to buy earlier?


Summary: Long CROX on continued brand heat; risk/reward remains favourable despite modest return expectations.

Pet $CROX released today and already sold out on both the USA and Canada websites. The brand heat they have been able to maintain is remarkable. Probably won’t generate tremendous returns but the risk reward continues to remain favourable. https://t.co/xZkjz25FoP


really feel $CPRI 's bad results increase the probability of the merger going through

Summary: Capri's weak results raise merger probability; bad fundamentals undermine FTC's competition argument, making deal likelier.

Some people on here might not agree but really feel $CPRI ‘s bad results increase the probability of the merger going through.

Lina Khan’s whole case is based on the fact that Capri and Tapestry are near perfect competitors and follow each other’s policies very closely like Capri raising its wages after Tapestry decided to do so and the employees will be at a disadvantage if the entities were to merge.

Given the erosion in Capri’s numbers, Capri needs to right size which could involve lay-offs and other cost cutting measures that could impact various stakeholders directly, including the employees which will undermine a crucial aspect of the FTC’s argument.


Summary: Bullish WEN on Krabby Patty awareness driving substantial revenue this quarter despite mid reviews.

$WEN early momentum continues with the Krabby Patty coming out. Early reviews have been mid, however, the awareness is quite substantial and will drive a substantial amount of revenue this quarter as people want to try it out regardless. https://t.co/RKvTdyZWmm

Sold half of my $WEN $17 Feb 21, 25 calls. Thanks so much to @BBbojangles and @tickerplus community.


Summary: Bullish INOD at $45; Q3/Q4 upside not yet in guidance, confirmed on earnings call.

$INOD management just confirmed this on the earnings call.

$INOD print is pretty decent. Stock might dump. I will be a buyer at the $45 level. They raised revenue guide again but I believe that q3 and q4 will be big quarters which are not yet baked into the guidance. From my review of job postings and discussion boards, they were hiring


Summary: Long FWONK on F1 movie tailwinds, blockbuster Q4 setup, US TV deal driving earnings+multiple expansion; also long DBO as exclusive F1 Arcade haptic supplier.

Looks like the F1 movie is having the desired impact for $FWONK. The search trends are starting to spike, Silverstone (British GP) is sold out. The next US race in Austin is roughly at the same time as last year but the search interest in the US is already spiking. It is important to note that in 2024, the Vegas GP was irrelevant with the championship winner already decided and was the primary reason for the underwhelming revenue as Liberty has spent a lot of money to make it a success. If Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri can keep it close, come late November, $FWONK can have a blockbuster Q4.

With the US TV deal looming there can be earnings expansion which will lead to multiple expansion as well as the market realises the potential of this business and the valuation mismatch IMO, pretty good setup for larger funds. Obviously benefits, $DBO with them being an exclusive official supplier of haptic systems for F1 Arcade.


Summary: Bullish BTC: retail not yet participating, search trends at bear-market lows, tighter float from institutional buying — more upside ahead.

@LogicalThesis 100%! Case in point is this chart, addresses owning > 1 $BTC has continued to go down while the price has exploded. Retail is not even here yet as the search trends for crypto and $BTC are at bear market levels. Looks very promising. Got lucky with the prediction last week. https://t.co/phJcYdPiOG

@nitinkinvests It's actually great that all these companies are emboldened to raise capital and buy crypto and there's clearly appetite for it
That creates not just buying pressure but a tighter float for the underlying at least in the near term


My target for this stock has been $6.50... I believe the target I shared should be reached within the next 6-9 months

Summary: Long BZFD to $6.50 within 6-9 months on multiple catalysts: Q4 outlook call, board overhaul, take-private potential, profitability, and easy comps.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

My target for this stock has been $6.50. I took profits along the way, started buying in July, maybe should have taken more in hindsight. But I like to buy companies which have catalysts and I think there are many for $BZFD.

The previous earnings call was < 9 minutes and the company said they will be sharing the Q4 outlook on another call, so I think that is a catalyst. The other catalyst is the board being overhauled by prominent media personalities led by @VivekGRamaswamy himself.

The other catalyst for the stock is potential take private deal led by a consortium of these prominent personalities especially now that the company is going to be profitable and has more cash then debt.

The previous quarter was also the first quarter where they were profitable and the comps are going to be very easy to beat ex-Hot Ones so that is another catalyst. Won’t be surprised if Huff Post is also sold soon. So there are various catalysts, the nearest one being the Q4 outlook call and I think the management will explain the rationale behind the sale and the market will realize that this news is actually bullish for $BZFD. The content business growth will be clear and I believe the target I shared should be reached within the next 6-9 months.

@IamNGupta8 Do you see this as a binary news event swing play, or a longer term position over the 6M-1Y mark?


Summary: New long positions in LSF, BOF, FUBO; initiating a significant scaled entry in WILD.TO as a social arbitrage play.

Adds this morning:

1. $LSF
2. $BOF
3. $FUBO

Started a position in $WILD.TO

$WILD is a pure social arbitrage play. Plan to buy a significant amount but want to scale in. Will share research hopefully later today.


Summary: Long TPB to $75-90/share in a few years on Zig Zag/Stoker's core + FRE nicotine pouch optionality; also had considered PM but passed.

Reading through Maran Partners Q2 fund letter, disappointed at myself for missing out on $TPB. Was looking at $PM but didn't go forward with it due to the size of the company. Here is their summary and thesis:

"In my first quarter 2024 letter, I indicated that we had purchased shares of a company, making it our sixth largest position. This company is now firmly in our top five. It will be familiar to long-time partners and readers of these letters: Turning Point Brands (“TPB”).

Turning Point Brands is comprised of Zig Zag rolling papers and a portfolio of non-combustible nicotine products, including Stoker’s (oral tobacco) and—spoiler alert—a non-tobacco nicotine pouch product called FRE. Zig Zag benefits from the tailwind of cannabis legalization currently underway in the U.S., and Stokers continues to take share and benefit from an industry pricing umbrella.

There are times when stocks get ahead of themselves; when a thesis breaks; when fundamentals weaken; or management makes mistakes. We must always attempt to be rational in the face of change, and when faced with certain situations, to sell and move on. Just as importantly, when we know a name well, it makes sense to continue to track it as the set-up may improve and create opportunities down the line. I have followed TPB since its IPO in 2016. We owned it as a core position from the first quarter of 2017 through the third quarter of 2018, and then again from the second quarter of 2020 (following its merger with its parent holding company, Standard Diversified) through the third quarter of 2021.

Despite its solid core in Zig Zag and Stoker’s, Turning Point had a tumultuous 2022 and 2023 as investments it made in vaping faltered, among other challenges. I continued to monitor the company during this period, though, doing checks on the brands, business, and team.

While investors fled the stock, the company was making numerous beneficial changes: it transitioned its senior management team (new CEO, CFO, and Chief Revenue Officer), de-emphasized the vaping segment, optimized inventory, generated cash (as always), paid down debt (including buying some of its converts at a discount), and incubated FRE. As a result, I think the TPB story is as exciting as ever, but it is only just starting to get back on investor radars.

TPB has a ~$650 million market cap and $225 million of net debt, bringing its enterprise value to approximately $875 million. It should generate approximately $100 million of EBITDA and $50-$60 million of free cash flow this year.

TPB is trading at a high single-digit free cash flow yield (low teens on our cost basis). Its core brands (Zig Zag and Stokers) should drive mid-single-digit growth in EBITDA. If the stock re-rates from just over 10 times free cash flow to the mid-teens over the next three years, that would add over 10 percentage points per year to the expected return. These components (high single-digit starting yield, mid-single-digit growth, 10%+ from multiple expansion) should therefore drive an expected mid-20% return profile (the “three-year double” for which I like to underwrite).

If this were the whole thesis, it would be sufficient. But there is an additional source of meaningful upside that I believe the market does not yet appreciate. This is the company’s nicotine pouch product called FRE.

Nicotine pouches deliver nicotine without tobacco. ZYN, owned by Philip Morris International (PM), is the market leader in this category, and will almost certainly remain in that position. That said, Turning Point has an excellent playbook for capturing market share and growing brands under the umbrella of larger competitors. It has grown Stokers to a high single-digit market share against entrenched competitors, for example.

Nicotine pouches are riding a huge wave of global growth—one which could continue to build for decades. The U.S. nicotine pouch market is $2.5-$3 billion and will likely double in the next few years. To give a sense of the growth rates, PM’s ZYN has grown from 13 million cans sold in the U.S. in 2018 to 174 million in 2021 to 385 million in 2023. It will likely top 550 million cans this year if production can keep up (there have been numerous recent reports of ZYN out-of-stock issues).

Despite FRE’s small market share, it has a number of competitive advantages and moats. First of all, it has PMTAs (premarket tobacco product applications) for each of 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15mg pouches, and is already in market with the latter four dosages. Most of its competitors are only in market with 3mg and 6mg versions, and don’t even have PMTAs for higher dosages (which means it could take them several years to launch them, if they chose to try).

While FRE capacity is a fraction of ZYN’s, FRE has established a robust supply chain. It has expanded capacity and is positioned to continue to do so. This should drive trials and conversion while ZYN faces capacity limitations.

FRE has been a fun one to research. I still think it is very early days and that not many investors are paying attention to it. The company has kept disclosure regarding FRE close to the vest, so independent research has been rewarding.

Based on both top-down and bottom-up assumptions, I believe FRE has a chance of growing to a $100 million revenue brand in the next few years. If things go very well, it could even take 5% share of a $5 billion (and still growing) market over time (i.e., $250+ million of revenue).

What is a high-growth, high-margin consumer brand in an emerging category worth? PM paid over seven times revenue for Swedish Match (the prior owner of ZYN). Even four times revenue (which implies a low double-digit multiple of EBITDA) would mean that FRE could attain a value of $400+ million in the next few years (and the blue-sky scenario is that FRE could eventually be worth $1 billion or more). These are very meaningful numbers relative to TPB’s current market cap of ~$650 million.

In my interactions with the TPB board and management team, there seems to be a renewed energy and determination, kindled in part by FRE. They appreciate the magnitude of the current opportunity and want to take advantage of it. These insiders are putting their money where their mouths are. Several executives, including the Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Strategy Officer, have recently purchased TPB shares in the open market. Additionally, TPB’s newest board member purchased over 2% of the company, a position worth over $15 million.

Capital allocation remains a further lever for value creation. After paying off its convert with cash on hand this summer, TPB restarted its buyback. TPB could comfortably repurchase up to one million shares per year (on a base of 17.6 million), even while continuing to invest in FRE. Compared to legacy tobacco companies, which generally have no—or negative—growth and pay high dividends, TPB is unique: a growth nicotine and cannabis-adjacent company that can be a share buyback machine. We already own the “NVR of the U.K.” in Vistry (OTCPK:BVHMF); I’m hoping TPB, this time around, can become the “Autozone of nicotine and rolling papers.”

TPB should generate $3.50-4.00 of normalized free cash flow per share next year, and over $5.00 by 2027. If it trades at a 15-18x multiple, that would put its value at $75-90 per share in a few years, and there is no reason to think that TPB can’t continue to compound from there (that is, if it isn’t bought out by one of the tobacco majors first). It just needs to avoid distracting M&A, execute on the brands it owns, and shrink the share count while maintaining appropriate leverage—and I believe, under the current management team, that it will.

The profile of our investment in TPB is similar to many of my prior favorites. I believe that we have limited risk of permanent capital loss; a core business that can drive excellent performance on its own; and an additional asymmetric source of potentially meaningful upside. If FRE disappoints, our investment in TPB should still be solid. If FRE is a real winner, though, then watch out."


Was looking at $PM but didn't go forward with it due to the size of the company


I think due to the ample inventory available, the launch feels weak. Most people were preparing to wait forever but now that they know that they can get one whenever they want, the second half of the year will be where the "shortage" happens.

Summary: Disagrees with parent's short thesis; bullish NTDOY as strong Switch 2 launch + H2 demand surge expected.

industry='Electronic Gaming & Multimedia'

From whatever I have read, the launch has been very strong. Moreover, they also ramped up production massively before launch and built inventory to discourage any scalping. Buyers are very happy with this. I think due to the ample inventory available, the launch feels weak. Most people were preparing to wait forever but now that they know that they can get one whenever they want, the second half of the year will be where the “shortage” happens.

$NTDOY is a short.

Switch 2 sales are abysmal.

Everyone is looking at BestBuy seeing them sell out.

But you need to look and mom & pop shops and talk to the owners. Demand is way less than expected.

Such basic research that no one does. I don't even have a position (yet).


Won't be surprised if they hold a combined share of ~20% or so by the end of this year

Summary: Bullish CELH: Alani Nu LTO strategy + social traction driving combined energy drink share toward ~20% by year-end.

The LTO strategy and the treasure hunt type product drops employed by the company are nothing short of genius. The social traction is clearly there. They are probably going to come in at 17% this Q (combined share). Best case will be to see $CELH team take some marketing inputs from the Alani team and employ those. Won’t be surprised if they hold a combined share of ~20% or so by the end of this year. Been doing some channel checks at various stores Alani generally appears to have no promotions and the most sell through.

Alani Nu search volume picking up for months now. $CELH https://t.co/FbIasJc9Pp


Summary: Bullish FUBO; management executing well with multiple catalysts ahead, dismisses bankruptcy concerns.

Potential big news for $FUBO. The management keeps executing with so many catalysts coming and experts on here think they are going bankrupt 🤦♂.

“The multiyear tie-up will first see Fubo integrated into live game blogs, with future plans for further placements in preview articles, newsletters, and product sections of the site.

“As the sports ecosystem continues to evolve, one of the main pain points for fans is finding where to stream a specific game,” said Sebastian Tomich, chief commercial officer of The Athletic. “We think this partnership helps us solve that.”

https://t.co/LgR0WXKTd7


Summary: Bullish SEZL into earnings: GMV ~$935M, yearly EPS up to $4.35 base case makes valuation reasonable given growth, though managing risk on long-term take rate and regulatory concerns.

Hey Dan, I like the $SEZL setup going into earnings. Data looks very strong and I think GMV will come in at around $935M. EPS sequentially might be flat which is not too bad because the management mentioned they had some one time tailwinds in prior Q. I think the yearly EPS estimate will probably go up to $4.35 (base case) which makes the valuation reasonable given the growth. Long-term I am not sure if they can sustain the take rate as it seems significantly higher and regulatory risk with this admin is elevated as managing my risk with this position accordingly. Hope this helps.

@nitinkinvests what’s your current take on $SEZL?


Summary: Bullish COIN as a beneficiary of substantial Base volume in the current crypto cycle.

@LogicalThesis The volume on Base has been substantial over the last 3 months. $COIN will be a beneficiary as well IMO.

Something to understand on crypto rn
If it's late cycle behavior
People willl chase on chain coins
The main chains are $ETH and $SOL
That means ETH SOL likely benefit from here


Summary: Bullish TIGR: trading cheaply post-strong print with good growth runway.

Surprised to see the muted reaction in the PM after the amazing print from $TIGR. Trading cheaply here with a good runway for growth.


I've been building $GAP into a portfolio-sized position over the last couple of weeks

Summary: Building a portfolio-sized long in Gap on viral TikTok momentum and new accessories business; expects easy comp laps and strong risk/reward.

The social traction at Gap right now is just staggering, which is why I’ve been building $GAP into a portfolio-sized position over the last couple of weeks. Their TikTok following has exploded by 225% in the last month and they have racked up 3x more likes in the past 30 days than in their entire history. In my experience, you just don't see that kind of sustained momentum. This viral campaign, along with the introduction of the new accessories business, gives me conviction that they'll be lapping comps relatively easily. The risk/reward here is extremely enticing, IMO.


Summary: Bought ASCCY (yen-denominated) over ADR on 11% spread dislocation; bullish on Nikkei rebound generating FX alpha.

Purchased some shares of $ASCCY. Makes the most sense as they are Yen denominated shares. Trading at a whopping 11% spread with the ADR shares $ASCCF. If the Nekkei bounces back (trading outside 99% standard deviation) they would be some alpha generated with the xchange rates.


Feeling more confident in this position by the day. Watch for traffic spikes across the board and growth in subscribers.

Summary: Long LSF; organic marketing via Laird podcast appearances expected to drive traffic spikes and subscriber growth, reinforcing long-term thesis.

Wonder if Laird's appearance on Julian Edelman's podcast moves the needle for $LSF. His previous appearances have led to traffic spikes for $LSF in the past. It was part of my thesis for this company. This step growth is going to come from these organic marketing activities.

They talk to health and fitness and how Laird goes about being the best at what he does. It is the right way to go about marketing as it is more organic and connects costumers to the story of the man behind the company and not just the product, leading to loyal customers.

Watch for traffic spikes across the board and growth in subscribers.

Laird also showed up on a lesser known podcast a couple of weeks ago but I think these appearances will go up with the holiday season approaching. Feeling more confident in this position by the day.

https://t.co/NhClkFiJWd


Summary: Long FUBO; compelling risk/reward with plan to add on dips; expects profitability and FCF positive in FY25.

@mulberryboi You can check out my $FUBO thesis here. @tickerplus also did an in depth article on it. Link: https://t.co/ONDjmDMRHn

1/n I think $FUBO's risk reward here is compelling. The position is only 3% of my portfolio but I will add more if it drops to $1.55 before earnings.

Financials:

$Fubo remains on track to be profitable and free cash flow positive in FY’25. I believe the company is inflecting.


Initiated a small position in $OLPX. the valuation here is extremely compelling. Trading at ~ 1.15 times book and ~ 9 times FCF. I think Olaplex is a very strong brand and will become an acquisition candidate at these prices.

Summary: Initiated 1% long OLPX on compelling valuation (1.15x book, 9x FCF) and M&A optionality despite weak product trends.

Initiated a small position in $OLPX. The trends don’t look great for the products and competitors like Kerastase (my wife’s favourite) and K18 have taken significant share and continue to do so.

I have been a long term critic of their social media strategy and have passed on the name multiple times in the past. but the valuation here is extremely compelling.

Trading at ~ 1.15 times book and ~ 9 times FCF. Given the lack of near term catalyst for value unlock, the position is only 1% of the portfolio. Might double it if we trade below 1 time book. I think Olaplex is a very strong brand and will become an acquisition candidate at these prices.


Summary: Endorses bullish LULU setup into earnings; favorable risk/reward at support.

$LULU seems like an obvious play going into earnings next week. Overreaction going into earnings, right into important support. Risk reward seems extremely favourable. Reminds me of Netflix in 2022.


This is an important zone. Just need to flip $30.50. $GME

Summary: Bullish GME; $30.50 is the key level to flip, aligning with quoted $36 conservative target.

Just looking at the charts, I know a lot of people might not like this but the $GME chart looks extremely bullish. My conservative target is $36. I think we will have some sort of an event soon.


Summary: Bearish SBUX near $98 on brand erosion and turnaround difficulty; bullish BROS on agile market-share gains vs incumbents.

$SBUX has more issues than just the CEO. The brand is not as aspirational as it used to be and they have completely fumbled the ball with their biggest demographic.

Incumbents like $BROS are taking market share and are more in-tune with the customer trends, they are way more agile and growing market share at an incredible pace.

Not to mention $QSR with Tim Hortons which is a staple and also gaining market share with its affordable pricing and accessible locations in Canada.

I don’t generally short stocks but might do so if given $98 today or tomorrow as the market will realize that the $SBUX ship is going to require an incredible amount of energy to turnaround.


Incumbents like $BROS are taking market share and are more in-tune with the customer trends, they are way more agile and growing market share at an incredible pace


Summary: Bullish HAS despite selling on analyst upgrades; expects the stock to run as analysts catch up.

@raymondching 4 now! DA Davidson increased the target on $HAS as well. It will run. Just needs some time potentially. Nice to see the analysts catching up to the trade.

@nitinkinvests 3 big boy upgrades today and the stock trades down. Not sure what's going on...


Summary: Expects DBO.TO buyout in H2 2025 or H1 2026 based on CNK earnings call breadcrumbs; Q3 F1 revenue tailwind also cited.

$DBO.TO $DBOXF As expected Cinemark had the best Q for Dbox revenue in Q2. The full benefit from the F1 movie should be realized in Q3. July box office collections were the highest this YTD. $CNK dropped some very interesting bread crumbs in their earnings call which make me think a buyout is coming sometime in H2 or possibly H1'26, will share a detailed analysis this weekend.

$DBO.TO mentionned in Cinemark’s earnings presentation today 👀


Summary: Bullish AAVE as a structural winner from ETH staking/burn mechanics driving liquidity and aToken demand; also long ETH on supply reduction from staking burns.

Great analysis as always! I’d add $AAVE seems like a winner no matter what, especially with $ETH staking and burn mechanics in play. As more people stake ETH, the burn reduces supply, potentially driving token price up—meanwhile, Aave benefits from increased liquidity and aToken demand. It almost feels too obvious: more staking = more burns = higher AAVE value.

Just realized something
All these mining companies, crypto treasury companies, crypto utility companies
This is just the alt coin phase brought to the tradfi equity world
Welcome my brothers. These are the trenches.
Good luck

The one difference here is that treasury companies


As more people stake ETH, the burn reduces supply, potentially driving token price up


Summary: Long BBWI targeting $41.20, ~12-15% gain on mean-reversion from oversold levels.

Nice pop on $BBWI. Stock looked extremely oversold. This is a reversion to mean trade for a target of $41.20. Hopefully a quick 12-15%.

The wife wanted to go to $BBWI works this week and the store was really busy. Asked a couple of clerks about how busy they have been and got a response, “Extremely”. Sample size is small with only one store but this dip looks like algo driven one. Potential earnings play here.


my conviction in the bullish thesis comes down to one core concept: information asymmetry... Hobonichi a compelling low-risk, decent-reward investment poised to capitalize on the very factors that currently keep it in obscurity

Summary: Firmly bullish 3560.T on information asymmetry, accelerating global search demand, e-commerce capacity constraints, zero debt, and expected record Q1 earnings catalyst.

Why I'm Bullish on the Japanese Cult Brand Hobonichi 3560.T.

Hobinichi is a Japanese company that sells premium paper planners. Hobonichi is far beyond a stationery company. It's a content-driven, community-powered lifestyle brand with a fiercely loyal global following.

I believe the a compelling information gap currently exists in the name. I believe the company is at a growth inflection point. The opportunity exists due to the quirky business model and a structurally illiquid stock. This however creates a potential opportunity for those willing to look closer. While significant headwinds exist, the alternative data is showing major strength. Here’s a breakdown of the powerful tailwinds, the major risks, and why I am firmly bullish.

The Tailwinds:

1. Search data shows a significant and accelerating interest in the Hobonichi brand. The company’s sales cycle is highly seasonal, with a massive product launch every year on September 1st. Predictably, Google search interest for "Hobonichi" begins to build in August and explodes in early September. YoY growth in this search volume is a powerful leading indicator for sales growth, and recent trends show this interest is expanding rapidly into new international markets. A staggering 408% rise in search interest in a region like Mexico is a good indication of the growing demand and reach.

2. The company’s e-commerce infrastructure cannot keep up with demand. On September 1st, dubbed "Hobonichi Day" by fans, the brand’s official website, https://t.co/LyKfrlCN8C, overwhelmed the servers, leading to crashes and "server is busy" messages for hours. While frustrating for customers, this is an incredibly bullish signal for investors. It indicates that customer demand is so far in excess of the company’s transactional capacity that the reported sales figures for that period may actually understate the true level of market demand. The most sought-after items sell out in minutes, fueling a sense of scarcity and a robust secondary market on eBay. This is a clear sign of exponential, not linear, growth.

3. Hobonichi is strategically expanding its distribution via Amazon. In recent years, the brand has established dedicated storefronts on Amazon in the U.S. and other regions. This is a brilliant move that both de-risks the business and expands its market. It provides an alternative for international customers concerned about direct import costs and logistics while simultaneously introducing the brand to millions of new customers through Amazon's powerful discovery algorithm.

4. The brand’s most powerful asset is its community. Hobonichi benefits from an intensely active, creative, and self-organizing user base. Social media platforms are flooded with an endless stream of high-quality, organic marketing material. This UGC  serves as powerful social proof and is the primary driver of new customer acquisition. Competitors can replicate a planner, but they cannot replicate a decade of authentic community. This is a formidable competitive moat that fuels the brand's pricing power and long-term defensibility.

The Headwinds: Biggest Concerns/Risks

1. The most immediate risk is the new US tariff regime. The recent suspension of the $800 de minimis exemption for imports directly hits US customers, and could impact demand. An order that was once duty-free now faced a 15% tariff plus processing fees, representing a material price hike. This could cause demand destruction or push customers to domestic competitors.

2. Arguably the most significant long-term risk is the "paper problem." Hobonichi's premium reputation is directly linked to the unique qualities of its Tomoe River paper. Following a change in the paper's manufacturing, there have been widespread and credible reports from the community detailing a decline in quality. For the brand's core audience of fountain pen enthusiasts, issues like ink feathering and bleed-through are dealbreakers. This directly attacks the company's core value proposition. Reviews for this year have been mostly positive but this trend is important to watch.

3. Finally, the competitive landscape is only heating up. For years, Hobonichi was in a class of its own. Now, a new wave of boutique "Hobonichi-killer" brands many founded by former Hobonichi fans are emerging. These agile competitors often use the same high-quality paper and iterate on the design to appeal to users with different aesthetic preferences. The combination of rising prices for Hobonichi and its perceived quality decline makes the brand more vulnerable to this competition than ever before.

Why I'm Bullish: The Information Asymmetry Opportunity

Despite these serious risks, my conviction in the bullish thesis comes down to one core concept: information asymmetry. I believe the market fundamentally misunderstands Hobonichi, creating a potential mispricing that can be exploited.

The misunderstanding is twofold. First, the market fails to grasp its highly seasonal business model. Hobonichi's fiscal year ends on August 31st, meaning the vast majority of its sales from the September 1st launch fall into its first fiscal quarter (Q1). A sequential revenue decline from a blockbuster Q1 to a seasonally weaker Q2 could be incorrectly flagged by automated financial screens as a sign of a struggling business. The true measure of health is the YoY performance of Q1, and the digital tailwinds all point to a powerful upcoming report.

Second, the stock is extremely illiquid. With an average trading volume in the low single-digit thousands, it’s practically invisible to large institutional investors. This lack of professional analyst coverage means there is no one to tell the story. This illiquidity is a major practical risk, but it's also the very condition that allows the opportunity to exist.

My bet is that the powerful leading indicators will translate into a record-breaking Q1 earnings report and a decent Q2 report. Such a report could serve as a powerful catalyst, forcing the market to re-evaluate its understanding of the company's growth trajectory and seasonal model. The combination of strong top-line growth, a fortress balance sheet with zero debt, and a formidable brand moat makes Hobonichi a compelling low-risk, decent-reward investment poised to capitalize on the very factors that currently keep it in obscurity.


Summary: Bullish PTON: right-sized business, strong subscription revenue, easier comps ahead, looks attractive.

@TysonTimko That’s what I am thinking on $PTON as well. Seems like they have right sized the business and the subscription revenue is still strong. The comps should start to get easier as well. Does look attractive.

@IamNGupta8 $PTON Q324 first time being FCF positive in three years. $8.6 million FCF; also David Einhorn of DME initiated a $22 million position last quarter seems kinda bullish for a potential buyout


I started a small position in the long term portfolio today... the risk reward is starting to get enticing

Summary: Initiated long AMD position; AI division from $0 to $5B this FY, gaming set to inflect, Su ready to compete, risk/reward compelling.

$AMD - I think we will see the gaming division starting to inflect. The street is solely focused on the AI division which I think we should not forget went from $0 to an expected $5 billion this FY. Lisa Su's interview with Time makes me think she is ready to take the fight to her cousin.

I started a small position in the long term portfolio today, the PA looks really bad so I'd rather be a little late then too early but the risk reward is starting to get enticing.

$AMD is starting to feel interesting here. The gaming division is starting to become immaterial and AI chips are going to be the story moving forward but with Su at the helm and the stock beaten down so badly with no one focusing on them, I think it is starting to get https://t.co/uigkTBx3SS


Summary: Long COIN with very high conviction; earnings beat $2.27B vs $1.87B revenue and $4.68 vs $2.04 EPS.

$COIN

Revenue $2.27B vs $1.87B
EPS: $4.68 vs $2.04

Conviction was very high going into this one.


Summary: Bullish Gap: cheap at 8x cash flow, winter collection buzz, any progress heavily rewarded.

@_MikFlair_ Yeah their winter collection is getting a lot of buzz. Gap has been stagnant for so long. Any progress there is going to be heavily rewarded. Trades at 8 times cash flow. Could do really well.


looks promising. Wilson's rackets, golf, and tennis products are experiencing a huge surge in search trends. At the same time, Arc'teryx is seeing a non-seasonal material trend surge for its jackets and shoes, and Peak Performance also appears to be inflecting. Salomon will likely continue its growth trajectory.

Summary: Early-stage bullish on Amer Sports: Wilson, Arc'teryx, Peak Performance, and Salomon all showing positive trend signals.

In the last few days, I've been researching Amer Sports $AS, looks promising. Wilson's rackets, golf, and tennis products are experiencing a huge surge in search trends. At the same time, Arc’teryx is seeing a non-seasonal material trend surge for its jackets and shoes, and Peak Performance also appears to be inflecting. Salomon will likely continue its growth trajectory. Research is still in its early stages, but what's particularly noteworthy is that Wilson's racket trends have for the first time met or exceeded those of Yonex which reported a robust set of numbers.


I believe the OLED industry is entering a dynamic new phase of expansion... beat the market over the next 3 years

Summary: Long $OLED on multi-year OLED IT expansion: blue emitter breakthroughs, tandem stacks, foldables, and rising material content per device driving sustained earnings growth.

After the decent success of my $SNDK trade I have decided to try to expand my circle of competence and hence wanted to shared an idea that will most likely beat the market over the next 3 years. However, due to the nature of the business, it might not move up as violently as Sandisk. I only have a small tracker position due to the lack of massive upside.

$OLED Next Growth Cycle: Blue might be the New Gold

I believe the OLED industry is entering a dynamic new phase of expansion, moving beyond the smartphone and setting its sights on a vast, untapped market. The catalyst for this next wave of growth is the increasing adoption of OLED technology in tablets, laptops, and monitors where OLEDs currently represent less than 5% of the market.

The opportunity here is significant. According to Omdia Market Research, OLED IT unit shipments are forecasted to more than double from 23 million in 2024 to nearly 49 million by 2027. We are already seeing early signs of this shift in consumer interest, with search trends for "OLED monitors" steadily increasing as users seek out superior display quality for their desktops and laptops.

At the heart of this expansion is a pivotal technological breakthrough: the maturation of high-performance blue OLED emitters. For years, blue has been the challenging color, limiting efficiency and lifespan. Now, with the advent of technologies like phosphorescent blue (PHOLEDs) and tandem stack architectures, that paradigm is shifting.

These innovations are a game-changer for two key reasons:

1. Superior Performance: They enable brighter, longer-lasting, and more power-efficient displays, which are essential for the larger screens of laptops and monitors.

2. Increased Material Demand: Crucially, these advanced structures increase the volume of emissive material required per device. A tandem stack, for example, can effectively double the amount of material needed to produce a single screen, driving revenue growth even with the same number of units sold.

This trend of "more material per device" is amplified by innovations in form factors. Panel makers continue to showcase an array of foldable, rollable, and stretchable displays that capture the imagination. As UBI Research reports, foldable device shipments are expected to more than double by 2029. These complex designs can require two to three times the amount of material compared to a traditional single-layer phone, further fueling demand.

The primary reason for this being only a tracker position is that consumer electronics sector is inherently cyclical, and revenue growth can be lumpy as new product adoptions and manufacturing lines take time to ramp. We can't expect a massive surge overnight.

However, I view these converging factors of untapped market penetration in IT, breakthrough blue display technology, and innovative form factors as the foundation for powerful, multi-year cyclical tailwinds. These tailwinds could also be aided by the PC and TV upgrade/replacement cycle too. As the demand for larger, more complex, and technologically advanced OLED screens grows, the path for sustained earnings growth over the next few years becomes increasingly clear.


Summary: Long NAGE: beat-and-raise, FCF positive, DTC growth, biotech optionality cheap, no dilution risk.

$NAGE is truly one of a kind company. Another beat and raise just from their OTC products. The CEO also teased a vial that they plan to sell online for the IV product and launch a $HIMS type platform in the next 24 months. Free cash flow generating company with DTC growth and you basically get the BioTech side of the business for very cheap. No capital raise required either.


Summary: Bullish DEFTF as the best equity play on crypto; higher BTC/SOL prices boost its top/bottom line; Nasdaq listing and takeout potential as catalysts.

I don’t think the market still quite understands the positive impact higher $BTC and $SOL prices have on $DEFTF $DEFI top line and bottom line. I think it’s unequivocally the best equity play on crypto. Nasdaq listing coming soon too. Obvious take out target as well.


Why I'm bullish on $LBTYA... Liberty Global is a compelling value play with a robust buyback program, forthcoming strategic spin-off, and strong balance sheet. Risks exist, but the potential upside outweighs them.

Summary: Long LBTYA: aggressive buybacks, $3.2B cash, Sunrise spin-off injecting $1.7B, mgmt NAV of $50/share vs $17.20 market price.

Why I think Liberty Global Ltd. is a great value play - 🧵

A stock with a "Heads I win, tails I don’t lose" potential? Let's dive into Liberty Global Ltd. ($LBTYA $LBTYB $LBTYK), a telecom giant poised for a rerating📈.

---

🌐 About Liberty Global: A global fixed-mobile convergence communications company, serving residential & business customers across Europe, with ownership in major operations.

---

📉 The Setup: Stock has seen a decline, losing customers in a competitive market. But, recent developments hint at a turnaround, offering a substantial margin of safety at $17.20.

---

💡 The Thesis: Why I'm bullish on $LBTYA:

---

1⃣ Buyback: History of aggressive buybacks, with plans to buy 10% of float in 2024, 3% of which was bought back in Q1 (60% has been bought back since 2017). Recent drop may fuel more aggressive buybacks, offering a solid floor price.

---

2⃣ Strong Balance Sheet: Sitting on $3.2 billion in cash, with low risk of default. Willing to sell assets to replenish cash balance (Market cap is only $6.5 billion).

---

3⃣ Sunrise Spin-Off: Targeting Q4 for spin-off of Sunrise Switzerland. Expected to inject $1.7 billion pre-spin, enhancing equity value. Sunrise's dividend alone represents a 4% yield on the entire market cap of Liberty Global.

---

3⃣.1⃣ Investors peg the value of Sunrise @ $11.00. Management believes it should be close to $21.00. The current capitalisation of the entire company is $17.20.

---

4⃣ Valuation: Management has pegged the value of the shares @ $50. The company also has a venture portfolio with a fair value of $2.4 billion or almost $7 share.

---

5⃣ Post Spin-Off Potential: Positioned as a major player post-spin-off, with over $25 billion in annual revenue and $9.3 billion in annual EBITDA.

---

❗ Risks: Complexity in corporate structure & uncertainties surrounding Sunrise's valuation.

---

🔍 Conclusion: Liberty Global is a compelling value play with a robust buyback program, forthcoming strategic spin-off, and strong balance sheet. Risks exist, but the potential upside outweighs them.

---

💼 Investor Perspective: An opportunity to capitalize on the disconnect between implied value and current stock price.

---

📈 In Summary: With the market reevaluating assets, Liberty Global presents an attractive opportunity for value investors. Read detail analysis here: https://t.co/GTtlglpDgt


Summary: Bullish GAP: business fixed, entering product virality phase similar to ANF's prior run, aided by macro backdrop.

I would love to see that happen. Spent a lot of time going to various stores and talking to the employees at $GAP and I think there issue right now is that their products are a little bit behind still. The thing with $ANF was the supply chain and marketing/product was moving in unison which led to the stock doing what it did. $GAP is in the initial stage. They have fixed the business and I believe they are just entering into that product virality phase. Also, the market cap larger which limits the upside to some extent. I think they are trying to give an $ATZ vibe but for lesser prices which should also benefit them in the current macro backdrop.

@IamNGupta8 i didn’t fully appreciate that..that’s awesome. also, hot take..$GAP brands >>>>> $ANF, in my mind i see GAP as quite bit more valuable and robust in terms of demand. well see i guess


$AMC could get really interesting. The company's TikTok account is seeing substantial growth with the success of Wicked. I believe it is a massive under followed social arbitrage play here.

Summary: Bullish AMC as an underfollowed social arbitrage play on TikTok growth driven by Wicked's success.

$AMC could get really interesting. The company’s TikTok account is seeing substantial growth with the success of Wicked. I believe it is a massive under followed social arbitrage play here. https://t.co/szNJWjJNLm

🌟 Check out our latest "What's Trending" article:
$WMT $DIS $GAP $DJT $PEP and more...

https://t.co/8GM7bVZMbh https://t.co/ZGZfkMyiIT


Summary: Author moved entire position from SLV to PSLV, recommending others do the same amid silver squeeze context.

If you can’t buy physical. Consider transferring your positions from $SLV to $pslv. Transferred the whole position yesterday. #silver #silversqueeze

OMG, SLV increased 61350 shares NEW all time one day record change....please retweet. https://t.co/ePWXQvOiFz


Summary: Bullish FUBO conditional on FTC non-intervention; sees significant upside as most don't understand the business.

The guy is a winner. This is a big win for everybody. He has always preached that he would want these bundles to be cheaper for the consumers but hasn’t been able to do that due to the exorbitant amount of money they were being charged by the big 3. If FTC stays away, I feel like we are going much higher. Judging by some posts on X, I think most people don’t understand the industry or $FUBO’s business entirely.

@IamNGupta8 @FinancewithJohn @davidgandler @IamNGupta8, it's quite remarkable how $fubo has managed to navigate challenges while maintaining positive cash flow. david gandler's leadership indeed seems pivotal in this scenario.


the price might 3x overnight. Earnings in August will be a blowout. Compliance issues figured out, mgmt extremely transparent. Bought more today. Re-rating happening soon.

Summary: Long WALD: expects 3x on name-change catalyst, blowout August earnings, compliance resolved, re-rating imminent; added today.

industry='Household & Personal Products'

$WALD should drop ‘acquisition corp’ from its name, the price might 3x overnight. Baby being thrown out with the bath water. Earnings in August will be a blowout. Compliance issues figured out, mgmt extremely transparent. Bought more today. Re-rating happening soon.


Summary: Long CROX: TikTok trends, HeyDude improving, Australia growth, and sub-10x earnings valuation mean any momentum gets rewarded.

$CROX starting to trend on TikTok again with HeyDude trends also looking really good. Keep an eye on the momentum in Australia as the company has been growing substantially there. Given the valuation, any momentum will be rewarded IMO.

Terence Reilly starting to do his thing at HeyDude with the Sydney Sweeney collab. HeyDude has been such a huge detractor for the $CROX brand that any positive numbers there would change the trajectory of the stock trading below 10 times earnings. Still a core position.


the correlation between Gtrends for "Coach" and their earnings is moderately high and is set to play out again this quarter

Summary: Google Trends signal for Coach correlates with TPR earnings and is set to repeat positively this quarter; implied bullish.

From my Substack post from this morning, Coach is 75% of $TPR’s revenue; the correlation between Gtrends for “Coach” and their earnings is moderately high and is set to play out again this quarter. Check out the post if you haven’t already. https://t.co/RiB9TqSbd2 https://t.co/hd5bSB7wfj


Summary: Calls October bottom with explicit upside targets for DJI/NDX/SPX and a mega rally into December EOY.

The bottom is coming up in October. Been saying this for 6 months. No one believes in equities anymore, investor confidence is at an all-time low and BTD is apparently dead. Expect a huge rally end of this year.

---

Again, "END OF THIS YEAR".

DJI: 26K - 27.5K
NDX: 9.7K - 10.3K
SPX: 3.2K - 3.4K

Markets bottom out before the negative news cycle does. Unless the world comes to an end the best companies in the world will figure it out as they always do.

---

Would recommend reading Buffett's letters through the 90s; equities outperformed everything, and so they will again. Need some consolidation going into October and November for a mega run in December.


$SNAP continues to increase ad monetization of their platform... revenue could ramp further as more advertisers rush to the platform and ad prices ramp

Summary: Bullish SNAP on improving CPMs, low churn, and ad monetization growth driving further revenue acceleration.

$SNAP continues to increase ad monetization of their platform. Talked to a few Digital Marketeers and they have mentioned that the CPMs are better on Snapchat compared to other platforms. If the conversions remain good and churn stays low, revenue could ramp further as more advertisers rush to the platform and ad prices ramp.

$SNAP so far so good. Upgrades from Bernstein, Morgan Stanley, Roth Capital and UBS since this tweet all citing better product launches. Options were dirt cheap. Appreciate the insights by @moneygurg on this one.


Summary: Bearish RBLX: PR disaster driving CCU decline as parents pull kids; expects continued stock impact.

August 13th marked the lowest number for CCUs for $RBLX over the last 30 days. This could get really interesting as more parents are finding out about this and stopping their kids from playing the game. This has been a complete PR disaster for the company. https://t.co/k5yHKVisWI

The $RBLX situation is getting bigger by the day. Major news outlets are starting to pick up on the story. I don’t see a scenario where this doesn’t impact the company and the stock atleast in the short term. Oct 17 $100 puts up 41% today.


Summary: Long HAS into earnings; expects any dip to be bought, driven by SDCC catalysts and likely guidance raise on MTG/Wizards.

Really like the setup for $HAS going into earnings tomorrow. The stock is almost at 3 year highs but has gotten multiple analyst upgrades since this post owing mostly to the strong demand outlook for MTG. It is highly likely that they raise guidance for Magic huge part of Wizards which constitutes all of their profits.

Price action wise, I see two scenarios:

1.) Move up to $86 range and absorption at the open or 2.) Great numbers and guide and the price corrects massively with buyers coming in during the day and price closing above $72.

I think the dip will be bought up in anticipation of some huge announcements at the SDCC later this week including the announcement of its much anticipated AAA title with Sabre Interactive. Sabre is the team behind the super successful Warhammer 40k ($GAW) game which I covered last year. Looking forward to how this plays out.

$HAS - almost 3 year high and happy to say options doing really well. GS upgraded the stock based on exactly what I had mentioned in my tweet last week. So many catalysts coming over the next 12 months.

GS upgraded Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS) to Buy from Neutral and raised its price


when the floor is secure, you leave a lot of opportunities for capital appreciation and blue sky scenarios. Not saying LBTYA will 10x but...the stock leaves room for a lot of appreciation

Summary: Bullish LBTYA: debt is non-recourse at sub level, parent cash/venture portfolio covers market cap, leaving significant upside optionality.

Fair enough but again the entirety of the debt is on the sub level and not the parent level which still has cash and venture portfolio which is close to the market cap of the company. So even if we were to assign 0 value to the subs (which we both know is a near 0 event, the stock leaves room for a lot of appreciation. So I still would say the debt structure makes the balance sheet strong. Malone is good at this, has been forever.

I had a similar investment I made in India back in 2020 in a company called Nava bharat ventures. Same deal, holding company made up for the market cap and sub was valued at 0 with a lot of debt but non-recourse. The stock 10x’d with some expected and unexpected tailwinds that came from the sub. Not saying LBTYA will 10x but when the floor is secure, you leave a lot of opportunities for capital appreciation and blue sky scenarios.

I was looking at your account, just curious do you think LBTYK is a bad investment? Have you been in it for a long time and burned by the company in the past?

@IamNGupta8 Yeah I don’t disagree Malone is amazing and structure is sensible but saying strong balance sheet is not quite right. If a sub goes to zero it wipes all the equity value don’t forget! No vmo2 would wipe out $7bn of equity value for example.


Summary: Still bullish ZVIA over 2-year horizon on MAHA narrative despite trimming 20% after 50% gain.

Took 20% off. Was not expecting 50% in 2 weeks. Still believe $ZVIA has really good potential over the next 2 years especially with the MAHA narrative.

$ZVIA Investment Thesis: Asymmetric Upside Potential Amid Emerging Trends

After recent analysis, I’ve shifted my stance on Zevia, due to the October Amazon data showing a significant surge in e-commerce sales. While the upcoming Q3 results may still underperform based on


Summary: Bullish FWONK as F1 popularity continues to grow; Apple bid adds further tailwind.

$FWONK $AAPL - Apple bids for Formula 1 rights, feels kinda obvious in hindsight. The popularity is only going to grow. Also, very excited to see what they do with MotoGP. https://t.co/bZyFXrOVcS

$AAPL executive Eddy Cue said: "At the start of a screening you ask the audience how many have seen a race, and very few people actually raise their hand (survey says 18%) compared to the number of people in the theater.

When we finish and we ask how many of you would like to


Summary: Bought QLD and nibbled on ASCCY today.

@StockMarketNerd $QLD for the most part and nibbled on some $ASCCY.


Summary: Bought QLD and nibbled on ASCCY today.


Summary: Re-entered WIF long at support; high confluence and favourable risk/reward.

Bought this back. High confluence of support here. Risk reward seems favourable. I think it got too crowded when we initially took it. Hat stays on $WIF


Summary: Still long LSF; trades at ~1.5x sales with material sales growth, not expensive.

$LSF officially a two-bagger for me. Averaged up on the way but initial entries were in the $3.7 to $4.3 range. When you buy right things tend to work out. Still trading at ~ 1.5 times sales with the sales growing materially so not expensive by any means.


Summary: Bullish LWAY: strong kefir sales trends suggest Danone's acquisition offer could come in higher once poison pill expires.

Nice move on $LWAY today. Wonder if there has been any update on the Family/Corporate Drama at the company or if this is a delayed reaction to the strong sales data. Kefir trends continue to look strong and translating into revenue which makes me think that Danone's offer could end up being higher after the poison pill expires.


Summary: Holds and is actively adding to a full position in BZFD, bullish on the post-demerger setup.

Added more today. Full position now. Will add more given the opportunity $BZFD.

$BZFD Pro Forma financials post demerger for anyone interested.


$QLD is such a simple way to be long the market. Averaging at right times always beats the market.

Summary: Endorses QLD as a simple leveraged long on the market; advocates averaging in at right times.

Up almost 21% on my $QLD long from last week. It has been a 20 IQ move that has worked out 100% of the times for me during times of panic.


I think the merged entity won't be investable for a little while

Summary: Merged TPR+CPRI entity viewed as uninvestable near-term due to complexity of turning around 5 brands including MK.

Listening to the $TPR earnings call, the management seems incredibly confident that this deal will go through.

They acknowledged the decline in financials for $CPRI but remain committed to the deal. Could be good long term with the free cash flow generation potential but I think the merged entity won’t be investable for a little while.

Turning around one brand is tough, $TPR will have 5, including a big brand like MK.


Summary: Long BTC/IBIT: expects consolidation 28-30 range with flush to $25 then face-melting Wall Street-driven rally, backed by Fink/BlackRock incentive to keep price high.

Opened a long on $BTC here. Major support at this level. I think we will consolidate around this level before the march higher. My thesis is quite basic but I think Fink saves us. The TA should be done on $IBIT imo.

---

@trading_axe is not directly said it but I think this is his thesis as well. IBIT’s opening day high was $29.63 and opening price was $28.05. The price should open at that level tomorrow and I think we will see massive buying coming in.

---

BlackRock has over $10 trillion in AUM and their products by design are going to underperform the markets. So BTC is important for them. Price is the greatest narrative, if they want to sell the product to their clients the price has to be high and YTD performance is imperative.

---

I believe we will see absorption in the 28 to 30 range with an exhaustion wick to $25 after which we will come back strong for a face melting run. With Fink behind us and a 70% chance of a DJT government, patient allocators will be rewarded.

---

This is the dip we all wanted, are we gonna capitulate or take advantage of this gift that we have been handed.

---

Fink is a powerful man and he has supported $BTC quite openly in the media. From what I can see, the dude has a lot of pride and ego. He has so much power, what makes you think he won’t get people to invest in this asset with his reputation on the line.

---

I seriously believe we have a huge upside move coming at some point during the year that will be the most hated rally ever and it would be driven my Wall Street.

---

Follow for more 📊 #crypto #investing #trading #Bitcoin #stocks


The TA should be done on $IBIT imo. IBIT's opening day high was $29.63 and opening price was $28.05. The price should open at that level tomorrow and I think we will see massive buying coming in.


Summary: Holds a small long position in HNST; bullish on skincare category growth, stellar management, and easier comps ahead.

Started a small position for earnings a couple of weeks ago based on the data below. I believe the skincare category is worth watching and the growth will mostly come from there. The management is stellar and I think the comps should start to get easier. Will be watching it closely and will make a decision based on that. https://t.co/GYvqkU6x0p

@IamNGupta8 Yea. Good play. Any thoughts on $hnst ?


Summary: Long DEFT on structured-product pipeline and SolFi sub optionality; also holds DFDV.

Pretty much yeah! Have some $DFDV as well. I like $DEFT because they have mentioned doing something with launching other structured products around the treasury formation phenomenon. I think they might actually do some alt ones as well. Could be an interesting play especially with the SolFi sub.

@nitinkinvests So just playing it through DEFT?
I'm an idiot and didn't stick to UPXI cuz I heard there was some off things about the co
Had no conviction so I got shaken out


Summary: Bullish ASICS: disciplined management, top-line growth, expanding margins — undervalued vs US-listed peers.

$7936.T $ASCCY is a remarkable story. Top line growth like all other major brands but with a disciplined management and continued bottom line expansion. The stock would be much richly valued if it was listed in the States.


Summary: Crypto total market cap breakout above ATH likely to trigger a large upside move.

@LogicalThesis Total ATH also acting as resistance, breakout will probably lead to another big violent move.

$BTC goes up
$BTC dominance comes down at the same time

We party https://t.co/nM96Ly9hz3


I think it is worth keeping an eye on Anta Sports... PE @ 15 so relatively cheap. Good play on $AS as well as they own almost 44% of the company. No position yet but tracking closely as a China recovery play.

Summary: Bullish on Anta Sports as a cheap China recovery play; 4% buyback, 3% div, 25%+ margins, PE 15.

I think it is worth keeping an eye on Anta Sports $ANPDY - $2020.HK The trend for Anta look strong but Fila a little underwhelming. 4% buyback, 3% dividends, 25%+ operating margins. PE @ 15 so relatively cheap. Good play on $AS as well as they own almost 44% of the company.

No position yet but tracking closely as a China recovery play.


Summary: Highest-conviction long bets this earnings season: TPR set up for a blowout quarter, alongside WALD.

Working on my next post. Going to do a deep dive on $TPR and why the upcoming quarter could be a blowout. Probably the highest conviction bet of this earnings season so far besides $WALD.


Probably the highest conviction bet of this earnings season so far besides $WALD


Summary: Long LSF as a social arbitrage play: major turnaround, expanding margins, 30% retail scanner sales growth, positive FCF outlook, and strong brand momentum.

1/ Excited about the potential of Laird Superfood $LSF? Let’s dive into why this stock is a great social arbitrage play!

---

2/ Founded by celebrity athletes Laird Hamilton & Gabby Reece, Laird Superfood specializes in plant-based, functional ingredients. Recently the stock has surged, but still underfollowed.

---

3/ Major turnaround in the past 12 months with growth in all revenue channels. From a going concern disclosure on their FS to a thriving DTC brand with expanding margins.

---

4/ Google Trends show steady increase in web traffic and the keyword, “laird” and rising searches for “mushroom coffee,” “mushroom powder,” and “protein coffee.” https://t.co/bKBc1U2lYk

---

5/ The global plant-based food & beverage market is booming, expected to hit $74.2B by 2027. Laird Superfood is perfectly positioned to capture this growth!

---

6/ Leveraging social media with celeb owners’ following has driven website traffic and sales. Two videos hit 600k+ views in the last 4 months! #SocialMediaMarketing https://t.co/lVSeswfXiY

---

7/ Retail scanner sales up 30%, but internal net sales only 10% – indicating destocking. Expecting higher sales from the channel as inventory levels normalize.

---

8/ Top products like Laird Superfood Creamer and Protein Creamer have lead the market on Amazon. HYDRATE Coconut Water Powder sales have doubled this year! Amazon sales charts below, check out the SS for all data scraped from Amazon for the quarter. https://t.co/T0GIXC2F86

---

9/ Reducing Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) while increasing advertising efficiency – more sales on Amazon & DTC with less spend.

---

10/ Revenue growth across all channels, projected positive free cash flow. Strategic initiatives include enhancing e-commerce, expanding retail, and new product launches.

---

11/ Laird Superfood transformed from a turnaround to a growth story. Baseline sales around $10M/quarter ensure break-even. Strong potential ahead!

---

12/ Check out the in-depth analysis on my Substack for the full report. Link in the Bio! Also check out @DMetropolitan article about it more an in-depth analysis of the fundamentals #Investing #microcaps


Summary: Long TPR into 15th earnings; channel checks positive, expecting double beat and raised guidance.

Follow up from my Substack post (link in bio). The trend for Coach and $TPR only seems to be increasing. Visited a few stores in a couple of cities close by and the employees corroborated the finding. Earnings on the 15th should be fun. Expecting double beat and raised guidance. https://t.co/6CCUqlKKms

---

$TPR - major risk is the overhang from the $CPRI deal. https://t.co/8dpPKQZo6W


Summary: Long BOF on compelling risk/reward: $4M revenue + cash-flow-positive Q1 expected, sub-$15M mktcap with $4 price target.

The risk reward on $BOF seems extremely compelling here. Expecting $4 million in revenue and to be cash flow positive in Q1 and could ramp up significantly from there. Current market cap is less than $15M. Could easily see $4. Know someone from the team, one of the smartest people I know.


Summary: Continuing to accumulate WALD with Aug 26 as expected inflection point despite lock-up supply pressure.

Absolutely no volume whatsoever in $WALD. Still believe August 26th will be an inflection point. Although there is going to be supply from the lock-up period coming to an end. I continue to keep nibbling as I can.


I have a small position in the stock. Will buy if this drops substantially. I am huge believer in Jared Isaacson as a capital allocator.

Summary: Holds FOUR and will add on dips; conviction in CEO as capital allocator.

$FOUR - this looks so interesting. I have a small position in the stock, would be interesting if we see some post earnings madness like we did last week. Will buy if this drops substantially. I am huge believer in Jared Isaacson as a capital allocator. https://t.co/Kkl4hTAezk


Summary: Bullish PINS into earnings on strong search trends/web traffic with tempered expectations.

$PINS looks interesting for earnings this week, the search trends and web traffic looks extremely bullish with expectations tempered by the previous ER. No position yet. https://t.co/AExil5ovwl


Summary: Added BTC to HODL portfolio at current level; bullish macro view on Bitcoin for the fiscal year.

I closed by $BTC trade here. Added some to the HODL portfolio. Seemed like a layup. Check this thread for my macro view on #Bitcoin and #Crypto as a whole for this FY. https://t.co/qzSYYXKABL

Opened a long on $BTC here. Major support at this level. I think we will consolidate around this level before the march higher. My thesis is quite basic but I think Fink saves us. The TA should be done on $IBIT imo.


Summary: Long CELH: easier comps from Q2 last year's PepsiCo inventory situation, strong shelf velocity, and seasonal LTOs set up a multi-quarter run.

Comps will get easier starting next Q. Recall Q2 last year was the largest due to the whole PepsiCo inventory situation. Pepsi merchandisers have been saying $CELH is flying off the shelfs recently. Add on top the Witch's Brew LTO and the Winter Wonderland LTO (Q4) and this stock has room to run.

@nitinkinvests 3% Celsius brand growth through US retail channels was one of the few black spots


given the valuation, the sequential momentum could be rewarded massively by the market. risk reward feels extremely favourable at these levels

Summary: Long ZVIA on favourable valuation, rising X mentions from influencer partnership, and improving sequential momentum despite lacking explosive growth.

$ZVIA X mentions going up substantially since @JoshPateCFB partnered up with them. Small position still but given the valuation, the sequential momentum could be rewarded massively by the market. Seeing more UGC content on social media too. Still lacking explosive growth but risk reward feels extremely favourable at these levels.

Just 48hrs after I asked for zero sugar soda recommendations I am proud to announce Pate State has partnered with @Zevia

I have inhaled this stuff since Monday https://t.co/dZ6CAtq8t4


The $BZFD thesis is still very simple. We have a guy who has a huge following and is a self made billionaire leveraging the power of social media. The float is so low too, the ultimate election social arbitrage trade.

Summary: Long BZFD on low float + Vivek Ramaswamy's following and business track record as a social/election arbitrage play.

Added to my $BZFD bags today. I feel like there is no better social arbitrage stock than this and the risk reward profile is really enticing. The company is going to 0 but we think @VivekGRamaswamy business acumen and record, they might have a chance.

https://t.co/g6INiNarPk


Summary: Short RBLX on creator/community backlash, DAU risk, and potential regulatory scrutiny from Schlep controversy.

$RBLX could be a potential SOCIAL ARB SHORT candidate.

Schlep, a Roblox YouTuber known for his predator catching investigations on the Roblox had his account terminated. He has since posted screenshots of what the cease and desist notice from Roblox Corporation. According to the notice, Roblox accused Schlep of violating its terms of service by interfering with its safety measures and staging chats that can harm children. The company argues that his methods disrupts its moderation and safety systems and can potentially increase the risk for players. In response, Schlep has taken his fight to a U.S. Senator, framing the company's actions as punishing him for protecting children.

The repercussions of the Roblox and Schlep situation could become far reaching. The termination of Schlep’s account and the subsequent legal warnings have created FUD among other Roblox creators. Many now are thinking that their own attempts to address serious issues on the platform, or even just create content that touches on controversial subjects, could lead to similar punitive actions. Some creators are alradyy publicly criticizing Roblox and calling for more accountability from the company, even suggesting a mass exodus from the official Star Program for top content creators.

This growing dissatisfaction could evolve into a larger community-wide protest.. A widespread player and creator boycott could directly impact the company's daily active user (DAU) metrics and, consequently, its revenue and bookings.

Furthermore, the public nature of this conflict, including Schlep's appeal to a U.S. Senator, could lead to increased regulatory and legal scrutiny. Roblox has faced criticism in the past regarding child safety, and this new controversy could provide new fuel for regulators to take a closer look at the platform. The company's actions are now being framed as prioritizing its terms of service over the safety of its young user base, which could lead to governmental inquiries and potential legal challenges from child safety advocates or other bodies.


Summary: VSCO likely to fall on upcoming earnings; author advises waiting for that dip as entry rather than chasing here.

Been covering $VSCO for a while. Continues to be extremely resilient in a tough market. I wouldn’t FOMO in here. Highly likely to fall on earnings at which point participants can consider an entry.

$VSCO is worth keeping an eye on. The show is coming back after 5 years and will be streamed live on their social platforms. If this goes well for them and is able to gain traction, I think the returns could be substantial and quick.


Summary: Bullish CELH: Eric Hanson addition and Alani marketing playbook adoption expected to drive LTO expansion and social media growth.

@svdeo21 100%! The Eric Hanson addition is also very positive. I think $CELH will take a lot of pages out of the Alani marketing playbook and expand LTOs and social media traction the way Alani has over the last year or so.

@nitinkinvests I'm looking forward to $CELH earnings and a turnaround in sales trends. I did like the Alani merger!


Summary: Bearish GME: management's share dilution and early earnings release will hurt the squeeze dynamic and suppress the price.

$GME management is so dumb. The price is the narrative. This thing is working because demand and supply are squeezed. Adding more shares to the float and reducing @TheRoaringKitty percentage will have an adverse effect + earnings released early too, just like we expected 🤦♂

$GME earnings are on the 11th, I think it would be prudent not to hold your longs going into earnings just in case they disappoint which I think they most likely will. Hopefully we can get to 3 figures by then. 🚀🚀


Bought a small position yesterday. Might size up based on research.

Summary: Holds a small long position; early-innings turnaround thesis, may add.

$DTEAF trends don’t look too good but looks like the company might be in the early innings of a turnaround. Need to do more work into it. Bought a small position yesterday after @OlivierColombo mentioned it. Might size up based on research.


Summary: Expects ZVIA price to move up soon; entered recently and implies current price is a temporary low.

It should be next week hopefully. Glad you were able to enter on time. I use @tickerplus. $19/mo for invaluable data. I don't think the price will stay here for too long tho honestly. There is so much that you can take advantage of, exploding trends, website traffic data, amazon data and whole lot more. Highly recommend checking it out.

@IamNGupta8 @ArcotterCapital Thank you so much for your work on $zvia. Just started position last week. Where did you get the graphs and how long are we gonna take to see the full October trend chart?


Summary: Long GAP: Get Loose campaign drives brand revitalization, stock under-followed with strong alt-data/social traction into earnings.

Looking forward to seeing how $GAP turns out on earnings. The company has been trying to revitalize its image and be culturally relevant again. The vitality of the Get Loose Campaign should drive the brand for the next few months and the stock is still under followed IMO.

$GAP has showed up on Google Trends so many times over the last few days. It’s not common to see this. Get Loose dance is all over TikTok with the alt data and social media traction looking very strong.

Check out our write-up on it here: https://t.co/DnZLUrcu7e https://t.co/lxWCgnbmL1


Summary: Long FUBO; bankruptcy risk removed via Disney deal, expects significantly higher prices from here.

Worth checking out my initial 🧵on $FUBO. $DIS knew they couldn’t win so they decided to join hands with them. The biggest issue for the co was a potential bankruptcy and now that is behind them we are heading much higher. Up 65% 😇

1/n I think $FUBO's risk reward here is compelling. The position is only 3% of my portfolio but I will add more if it drops to $1.55 before earnings.

Financials:

$Fubo remains on track to be profitable and free cash flow positive in FY’25. I believe the company is inflecting.


Summary: Bullish BOF on MicroDried agreement catalyst; expects further upside ahead of earnings.

Looks like the $BOF move today is a delayed reaction to the MicroDried agreement announcement. Earnings should be interesting. A lot of room to run for this name IMO.

The risk reward on $BOF seems extremely compelling here. Expecting $4 million in revenue and to be cash flow positive in Q1 and could ramp up significantly from there. Current market cap is less than $15M. Could easily see $4. Know someone from the team, one of the smartest


Summary: Not investable; multi-year downtrend ahead on selective consumers and activewear competition at lower price points.

How long until $LULU starts getting pitched as a value stock? The co is not investable ATM, the consumers are being very selective with their wallets and there are so many companies that are getting into the activewear space at way better price points. I think we are going to be in a multi year downturn for this stock.

Longed $LULU for earnings last time won’t this time. Lulu has their core customer that swears by the product and will continue to grow at a 5-10% clip due to the international market expansion but the North American growth is going to slow down unless they reinvent themselves.


Summary: Adding $LSF: subscription DTC revenue, retail scanner outpacing sales, falling CAC, and expanding margins signal a strong move higher from current ~$4 levels.

I have been adding in the same range as well. $LSF has shown tremendous growth. I am actually surprised with the fact that market doesn’t realize 50% of their DTC revenue has been subscription based for the last 2 quarters and retail scanner data growth has outpaced their sales data by 20%. Their CAC keeps going down as well and margins have increased substantially. Great entry point before the next surge up.

@IamNGupta8 Will give it a read, thank you! I just started a position when it pulled back to $4 yesterday. I really like the setup on it, and foresee a really strong H2 of 2024