Summary: Long MSGM: rising DAUs/MAUs, deferred revenue conversion, DLC attach rates, F1 Arcade licensing ramp could drive a breakout move.

$MSGM some important charts for anyone interested and some analysis regarding the same.

1. DAUs & MAUs: DAU and MAU numbers have maintained the elevated levels observed since the Version 1.0 release, and the baseline lifted significantly following the v1.2 update in December. As the charts show, the numbers have held this higher baseline, which bodes incredibly well for Q1'26. The game almost broke its highest DAU record during the 12-hour testing event last weekend.

We might see a slight seasonal dip here, but expect a recovery later this month driven by the new DLC launch, alongside anticipated bug fixes and announcements regarding the Virtual Le Mans event. Keep in mind that the e-gaming segment has generated no revenue for two years, any contribution here will be a pure tailwind against $0 comps.

2. Revenue Estimate: The model suggests that revenue from base game sales will likely be flat QoQ. I am not concerned about this, as I expect top-line lift to be driven by Deferred Revenue converting to realized revenue this quarter. We should also see a better attach rate from DLC sales (following the large December release) and RaceControl revenue exiting the quarter at a potential $2.5M ARR. The average playtime chart proves our core thesis; players spending more time in game leads to higher retention and directly aids add-on sales.

3. F1 Arcade: The Las Vegas F1 Arcade opened in October (their largest location with the most sims), which will meaningfully boost the licensing revenue portion of the business. My estimation is that this segment is already doing > $1M ARR. There are 8 F1 Arcades open right now, and Kindred Concepts plans to scale to 30 by the end of 2027. This business alone could add more than $3M in recurring revenue by the end of next year at 85%+ gross margins. To put that into perspective, the company's total revenue for 2024 was ~$8.7M.

It is entirely possible this stock goes from being completely ignored to a darling of FinTwit. Execution risks remain elevated, but the setup has the potential to deliver a $DBO.TO like move.

$MSGM looks like people were waiting for the earnings date announcement to position long.


Summary: Bullish TBTG.L into earnings: expects stellar numbers and FY'26 guide above consensus on Currentbody + Hair Regrowth + Sauna Blanket + Tria Laser 2.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Household & Personal Products'

$TBTG.L earnings this week. Expect the numbers to be stellar and the guide for FY'26 to be higher than the market anticipates. Currentbody has received great market reviews and their Hair Regrowth and Sauna Blanket products are starting to do well too (with higher ASPs). Looking forward to hearing about the Tria Laser 2 opportunity and how the management is thinking about that product for FY'26.

Found a rare pure-play in the red/blue light therapy sector. The fundamentals are disconnected from the price:

- 6x NTM EBITDA
- Minimum 30% growth for FY'25
- Expecting 20%+ for FY'26
- Zero Debt
- 4 recent Insider buys @ CMP

Expecting a pre-announcement this month to wake https://t.co/1q7dytyz2a


$GAP x Sandy Liang campaign appears to be doing extremely well with a lot of products sold out. Richard Dickson deserves a lot of credit for the job he has done reinvigorating the brand

Summary: Bullish GAP: Sandy Liang collab selling out signals strong brand revitalization under CEO Richard Dickson.

$GAP x Sandy Liang campaign appears to be doing extremely well with a lot of products sold out. Regardless of how earnings go Richard Dickson deserves a lot of credit for the job he has done reigvenorating the brand. https://t.co/SEUjMTlOIh


Summary: Long MSGM: asymmetric upside at $20M mkt cap / 1x fwd sales; structural turnaround, 80.7% gross margins, SaaS ramp, Le Mans catalysts, and console optionality make 2026 a watershed year.

industry='Electronic Gaming & Multimedia'

I know most people didn’t read the SS post, so I wanted to share my thoughts on the $MSGM setup, which I believe is extremely compelling heading into 2026. Thanks to @DMetropolitan for bringing this to my attention.

I believe the set up is massively misunderstood and offers asymmetric upside. Currently trading at a market cap of roughly $20 million and essentially 1x forward sales, the market is mispricing the equity as a distressed, capital-destructive legacy gaming publisher.

The company has executed a structural turnaroundand is now completely debt-free with $4.5 million in cash reserves. Driven by the shift from physical retail sales to the high-margin RaceControl SaaS platform, gross margins have expanded to an exceptional 80.7%. Over the coming quarters, I believe, the underlying intrinsic value of this recurring revenue ecosystem will become the narrative which will drive the stock higher.

Social Arbitrage & Capturing the Competitor Vacuum

LMU is aggressively cannibalizing market share in a landscape currently defined by lackluster competition. The historical king of GT3 racing, Assetto Corsa Competizione (ACC), has been effectively abandoned by its developers in favor of Assetto Corsa Evo, a title currently facing heavy community criticism and OVERWHELMINGLY NEGATIVE rating on Steam.

Simultaneously, the reigning multiplayer titan, iRacing, continues to alienate newer players with sunk-cost fatigue, requiring hundreds of dollars just to participate. LMU is exploiting this friction well.

The games' momentum is being accelerated by major YouTube KOLs like Jimmy Broadbent and Danny Lee, who are actively redirecting their massive audiences into the MSGM ecosystem due to its superior, highly communicative tire physics and accessible pricing. The brand loyalty can also be seen from the positive comments on YouTube videos released by LMU. The development team and CEO Stephen Hood are receiving overwhelming praise for their transparency and community driven updates, proving they are actively listening to their player base.

Unprecedented Engagement & De-Risked Infrastructure

In their December 2025 press release, the company mentioned that players drove a staggering 12.5 million laps on RaceControl (608% YoY increase). That growth compounded into the new year, with Steam concurrent player peaks hitting all-time highs of 8,740 in January and 8,660 in February 2026. What makes these metrics truly explosive is that the real-world 24 Hours of Le Mans doesn't even take place until June, these numbers are strictly organic.

As MSGM continues to roll out new tracks, cars, and highly requested features like a single-player career mode, the adoption of their high-margin RaceControl Pro ($48/yr) and Pro+ ($84/yr) subscriptions will continue to scale rapidly.

This past weekend, LMU hosted stable 12-hour endurance races with complex driver swaps, the developers proved they have resolved the scaling bottlenecks that plagued the platform in the past. This was the Achilles heel of the company in 2023 and resulted in Max Verstappen getting disconnected during the 2023 virtual event which caused a lot of negative press.

Upcoming Catalysts & The Console Lottery Ticket

We are entering a compressed window of highly lucrative catalysts. The Q4 2025 earnings report will benefit from a massive deferred revenue tailwind, as the December launch of ELMS Pack 2 legally unlocked significant cash parked on the balance sheet under ASC 606 accounting standards. Q1 2026 is structurally positioned to be even stronger, leveraging all-time high player counts and aggressively optimized SaaS monetization.

Looking ahead to the summer, the June Le Mans Virtual event will most likely completely shatter existing records, driving an immense top of funnel lift for the RaceControl platform. If MSGM successfully secures commitments from massive real-world drivers to join the simulation, a strategy currently in motion according to the management, the mainstream cultural exposure could trigger a viral explosion for the game.

The sticky PC player base could also give MSGM immense leverage in their late-stage negotiations with third-party partners to fully fund the console port. Porting an already-optimized PC architecture to PlayStation and Xbox is a manageable transition that instantly unlocks a TAM multiple times larger than their current footprint. If management can smooth out the remaining minor VR bugs and penalty system friction, 2026 is destined to be a watershed year for the company.

Not my idea, but one I'm really liking for earnings is $MSGM. Working on an SS post and hoping to share it this weekend, link in the bio (no paywall). Medium-risk play but could be a potential multibagger.

The current quarter is shaping up to be a material turning point, as https://t.co/PbLP53E3Ew


Risk/reward feels assymetrical at the moment. Truly believe they are sandbagging the guide.

Summary: Bullish Hobonichi (3560.T) on surging Amazon search trends and sandbagged guidance; asymmetric risk/reward.

Hobonichi Inc - 3560.T another very strong month on Amazon for the company. Truly believe they are sandbagging the guide. Search trends for "Hobonchi" up 45% MoM and up 530% YoY. "Hobonchi Planner" is up 10x MoM and is the 10th most searched keyword on Amazon over the last 7 days. Risk/reward feels assymetrical at the moment.

As expected the Amazon search trends for Hobonichi products are up a dramatic 365% YoY for September, underscoring strong and growing demand for its core product. The company might be selling over 1.5 million copies this year.

The stock currently trades at very cheap valuations https://t.co/7ahXeSH9Ky


Summary: Long HAS; Magic revenue up 59% YoY expected to continue as new players join the ecosystem.

$HAS we covered this stock at length last year, and as expected, Magic continues to show amazing strength (revenue up 59% YoY). Expect this to continue given the number of new players joining this ecosystem. https://t.co/Wy6zmmhQ7d

$HAS: I shared this idea a while back and still seeing a very compelling setup heading into the second half of 2025. The momentum remains phenomenal driven by Magic: The Gathering's Universes Beyond collaborations.

Avatar: The Last Airbender: The players and collectors remain https://t.co/ttd6hoMxz2


Summary: Bullish PENG: NVDA actively steering sovereign AI customers to it as the sole infrastructure partner, with Needham raising PT from $27 to $60.

Funny how Jensen mentioned sovereign AI as the fastest-growing segment today especially after Needham's note yesterday about $NVDA actively pushing those exact sovereign AI customers to one specific infrastructure partner.

Must be a total coincidence, right? 🐧 $PENG https://t.co/puuzbwkcjU

$PENG
Needham out today raising PT from $27 to $60

Saying $NVDA has been recommending $PENG
and citing the massive tailwind agentic AI will be for the 🐧 https://t.co/eF2O3mOhnf


Summary: Growing interest in DUOT as legacy rail exits, APR stake offers hidden value, and Hydra Host partnership gains momentum.

Thanks for sharing this, Jeff! I'm am getting interested in $DUOT too. The setup is starting to look a lot cleaner with the legacy rail business moving out of the picture. The APR stake could hold some solid hidden value and the Hydra Host partnership seems to be gaining momentum as well, there are a lot of interesting pieces coming together.

That comment about a potential hyperscaler strategic investor was also very interesting. Appreciate the notes!

$DUOT
On earnings call, CEO says "if I had the capital to build 10, 10MG sites today, I could auction them on Tuesday and have them live on Thursday."


Summary: Bullish 3560.T: strong Q1 beat as expected; market belatedly recognizing management sandbagging habit implies continued upside surprises.

$3560.T as expected, great set of numbers again. Market finally realizing that the management loves to sandbag.

3560.T - Hobonichi's stellar Q1 results prove the underlying demand signals were correct.

Sales ⬆18.6%
Net Income ⬆28.9%
Gross Margins ⬆2.17% (despite tariffs)

Inventory (as of Nov 30) is⬆7% YoY which should bode well for Q2 due to the stock out data we've shared. https://t.co/REHl8kRJlr


Summary: Initiated long LEAT on pristine balance sheet, destocking headwinds clearing, North American market inflection, and operating leverage as growth accelerates.

I initiated a small position in $LEAT (Leatt Inc.), as the setup we are seeing right now is incredibly compelling. Between a pristine balance sheet and shifting industry tides, the risk/reward ratio is highly asymmetrical. Didn't know @OlivierColombo is an analyst on the stock. Last time we were on a stock together - $LSF, it ended up being a multi-bagger.

The company is currently sitting on ~ $13M in cash with almost no debt implying an EV to EBIT of around 11 times with gross margins last year expanding by 3.74% and net margins turning positive with opex remaining flat on revenue growth of almost 40% exhiting tremendous operating leverage.

The End of the Destocking Headwinds:

The protective gear market has been battered by severe destocking over the last year, but the worst appears to be behind us. Looking at recent commentary from Mips (https://t.co/ZSddXP9ypz), the massive inventory headwinds might be clearing.

Alternative data is further suggesting that the artificially low stocking levels across distributors could be depleted much faster than the market anticipates. This rapid drawdown could lead to additional orders in the upcoming quarter (a lot of the sales by these companies are obviously made before the seasonal demand kicks in).

Geographic Tailwinds:

Europe has been a powerhouse of the industry, and Leatt has maintained remarkable strength there regardless of market conditions. However, the narrative in North America could lead to further upside as North America has trailed Europe for some time now.

Mips said "north american market continues to develop well and Asian market has stabilised." Thule also indicated that the North American market is flattening. This flattening is extremely bullish indicator for Leatt. If the trends are finally heading in the right direction and the North American market begins to accelerate, it adds an entirely new layer of growth on top and with operating leverage kicking in, the stock can really catch a bid.

The Moto Catalyst

Moto was Mips' largest growth driver recently, posting a massive 33% growth. Management explicitly stated that "motocross remains the key driver, but also on-road category is starting to accelerate."

While Mips and Leatt are competitors, this could be a leading indicator for the sector. If Leatt was able to command market share and hold their own during a period of severe material headwinds and aggressive industry-wide destocking, they are in a prime position to capitalize if the market accelerates materially.

The aggregate YoY comparative traffic for the major Motorsport websites in North America is finally trending the right direction with US Amazon search trends and google trends all supporting a market on the verge of a major inflection point.


My Q1 projections are overwhelmingly bullish ... It's an incredibly misunderstood stock. If earnings drop next week, the current broader market PA could set us up for a highly volatile session, hopefully to the upside.

Summary: Long MSGM into earnings next week; overwhelmingly bullish Q1 projections, stock seen as misunderstood with upside catalysts.

$MSGM up 50% since my thesis less than 3 months ago. My Q1 projections are overwhelmingly bullish, so much so that I'm re-running the numbers with new data points this weekend just to be safe. It’s an incredibly misunderstood stock. If earnings drop next week, the current broader market PA could set us up for a highly volatile session, hopefully to the upside.


Summary: Bullish Casio: Nomura upgrade with raised PT, G-SHOCK momentum plus broader brand acceleration; expects more upgrades and further upside.

Casio Computer Co. Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange 6724.T

Honestly, the pullback was a layup buying opportunity. The stock is up 7% this morning after Nomura Securities upgraded it from Neutral to Buy and raised the target price from 1,350 yen to 1,900 yen.

They note, "Profit forecasts are being boosted by the continued strong performance of the watch business, riding on the tailwinds of G-SHOCK's revitalization and the retro boom."

Social arb called this much earlier; analysts seem to be catching up. I suspect we'll see more upgrades soon. They are still focused on G-Shock momentum while Casio is starting to accelerate as well. Plenty of juice left in this squeeze. Glad I was able to triple down as I shared publicly.

Casio was removed from the Nikkei yesterday. The stock might face pressure until the next earnings. The brand heat for both their brands is palpable, and I plan to triple down if the stock indeed comes under pressure.


Summary: Initiated long CLX.L: ~5.5x EV/EBITDA, zero debt, 19% revenue growth vs prior low-single-digit guide, deep VIAVI/NVIDIA/Nokia AI datacenter exposure and 1.6T product pipeline.

Over the last several weeks, the market has started realizing the sheer importance of testing and validation companies within the AI and semiconductor supply chains.  Over the past few days, I have been adding a some small-cap, pure-play exposure to this theme and initiated a position in Calnex Solutions $CLX.L. Please keep in mind that as a smaller cap, this stock will be volatile. But the fundamental setup here is incredibly asymmetric, and I believe the market is drastically mispricing their operating leverage inherent in their business model.

The Viavi/Spirent Read-Through & Growth Inflection:

Calnex is deeply integrated with $VIAV, as VIAVI white-labels Calnex's products. Historically, Calnex worked closely with Spirent (which made up nearly 70% of Calnex's business). When Keysight announced its acquisition of Spirent, Calnex was effectively boxed out and had to aggressively pivot to diversify its client base.

However, VIAVI recently closed the acquisition for Spirent's high-speed Ethernet and channel-emulation test lines (divested as part of the Keysight deal). This brought the Spirent division and its partnership back to VIAVI, meaning Calnex got their most critical partner back in November 2025.

VIAVI has been posting blockbuster numbers recently, which acts as a massive read-through for Calnex. Back in November, Calnex guided for low single-digit revenue growth for the upcoming years on their H1 earnings call but on their latest Spring 2026 trading update they are going to do 19% revenue growth with highly robust margins and profitability.

Multi-Theme Ecosystem & The Road to 1.6T: Just as VIAVI launched 1.6T test systems specifically for AI workloads, Calnex has their own 1.6G (1.6T) product launching next year.

Top-Tier Partnerships: Calnex's ecosystem includes titans like Nokia, NVIDIA, and Arista. As Nokia and NVIDIA scale their new AI-RAN and digital twin cloud environments, Calnex's emulation tools are critical for validating interoperability and performance.

Compounding High-Margin Revenue: Warranty and support revenues are scaling alongside their booming data center hardware business, layering on highly profitable, recurring cash flow.

Financials & Valuation: There is tremendous operating leverage embedded in this business model. My model currently puts them at a shockingly low ~5.5x EV/EBITDA based on the latest profitability updates.

Furthermore, the balance sheet is strong As of March 31, 2026, Calnex held £9.3m in cash, with absolutely zero debt. Additionally, due to the phasing of shipments through Q4, there is a further £3m in customer receipts expected to land in the early months of FY27.

Finally, the founder and CEO has deep skin in the game, owning 20% of the company.

TLDR
Calnex ($CLX.L) is a highly profitable, zero-debt network testing play trading at roughly 5.5 EV/EBITDA. They are deeply tethered to VIAVI's explosive AI datacenter growth. After guiding for low single digits, they are now tracking for 19% growth. They just released a breakthrough 400G AI validation tool, are getting repeat hyperscaler orders, and have 1.6T solutions coming in 2027.


VIAVI has been posting blockbuster numbers recently, which acts as a massive read-through for Calnex


the math just makes their solutions a no-brainer... most enterprises would prefer to have to own their infrastructure for inference and steady-state AI... you essentially have a product that sells itself

Summary: Bullish PENG: on-prem AI cluster costs 3.5x cheaper than cloud over 3 years, enterprise demand for owned inference infrastructure + SK Hynix integration makes it a must-own.

Additionally for $PENG today, I was thinking about what Kash was saying recently regarding the sheer cost of tokens and how fast developers are burning through them with the Agentic AI workflows. It made me want to dig in and see if we could find some actual numbers. I came across a detailed Total Cost of Ownership analysis by Olds Research that models out exactly what this looks like for a steady state 248 GPU enterprise AI cluster, and the math just makes their solutions a no-brainer.

According to them On-Prem (Penguin Solutions)  costs $26.0M over 3 years while public cloud (AWS, GCP, OCI) solutions range from $71.5M to $100.1M over 3 years. Renting cloud capacity for these workloads costs an average of over 3.5x more than building on-prem. With the ever increasing costs of compute and deployment it becomes obvious that most enterprises would prefer to have to own their infrastructure for inference and steady-state AI. Additionally, many companies have mentioned the trend of compute moving to the edge which is another thematic they have exposure to.

Add on top of this Penguin's strategic partnerships, especially the integration with SK Hynix and you essentially have a product that sells itself. They have the exact hardware and integration capabilities that these enterprises are scrambling for right now.

@pennycheck @ThematicTrader Hey guys, sorry I'm late, it was a crazy busy day at work. I see you guys already shared some great insights on the $PENG Needham call!

For me, the biggest takeaways were the following:

1. If you look at the mid-point of the 12% guide and the segment guides from the Q2 call, my


Still Long. Management's refusal to raise guidance despite these numbers is the definition of sandbagging.

Summary: Still long Hobonichi on sandbagged guidance, strong Q1 beat, margin expansion, and ecosystem conversion thesis.

3560.T - Hobonichi's stellar Q1 results prove the underlying demand signals were correct.

Sales ⬆18.6%
Net Income ⬆28.9%
Gross Margins ⬆2.17% (despite tariffs)

Inventory (as of Nov 30) is⬆7% YoY which should bode well for Q2 due to the stock out data we've shared. Management’s refusal to raise guidance despite these numbers is the definition of sandbagging.

200k app downloads is very encouraging and the real alpha that no one is focusing on. We are watching the conversion from a one-off product model to a lifetime ecosystem. More touchpoints = higher average revenue per fan. Still Long.

Channel checks for Hobonichi $3560.T continue to look very robust. As you can see in the attached screenshot from https://t.co/ssKcASc7nO, 190 items are already sold out vs 141 in stock (most of which are also running low). Reddit is filled with comments about people missing out https://t.co/TuClrJya4F


I continue to believe the stock will be a winner this year. CurrentBody alone could realistically deliver 20%+ growth this year. ~6x forward EV/EBITDA (a massive discount to high-growth tech peers)

Summary: Long TBTG.L: 35%+ top-line growth guidance well above consensus, red-light therapy trend early innings, Tria Laser upside, cheap at ~6x EV/EBITDA with clean balance sheet.

Looksmaxxing continues to be a material trend for $TBTG.L. The CurrentBody Mask is already a staple, consistently ranking as one of the Top 5 recommended masks on TikTok.

I believe the red light theraphy trend is only just beginning. A rising tide lifts all boats, and CurrentBody alone could realistically deliver 20%+ growth this year.

The Tria Option:
Management expects Tria Laser to represent 25% of total revenue next year, while bullish analysts estimate it could hit £40M in 2026 alone. Even with conservative estimates for the core brands and Tria, the valuation is compelling:

1. ~6x forward EV/EBITDA (a massive discount to high-growth tech peers).

2. Debt-Free: IPO proceeds were used to clear debt, leaving a clean balance sheet.

3. Operating Leverage: Expenses are set to drop as one-off IPO costs vanish and interest payments disappear.

This management team has a proven track record of underpromising and overdelivering, having already upgraded guidance twice since their October debut. Execution here is much better than the competition and I continue to believe the stock will be a winner this year.

The ticker is $TBTG.L. As expected, we got the January guidance update and the numbers are just like we had estimated:

• Top Line: Updated for at least 35% growth (vs prior 28% expectations).
• Consensus is still sitting at ~10% growth estimates for next year.

They are https://t.co/KKGhxfpLCN


Summary: Long ZEPP as a short-term arb trade on Helio band demand inflection; expects repeat-purchase model and large TAM vs Whoop to drive a re-rating this year.

I think the difference in valuation offers the opportunity I'm mentioning here. I don't plan to hold it for years, just trade it for the inflection whenever it happens, and hold as they meet demand for the Helio band, which is rather substantial.

Also, their model for the other series’ has been to introduce newer models with advanced features, which often leads to upgrades more like a Garmin without having to shell out $500. So instead of a subscription model, the investment angle for an investor will be repeat purchases of newer models. One can obviously justify that when paying $100 for 2 years vs. $500 for 2 years.

The TAM with the Helio product, due to the pricing, is much larger than Whoop's, whose pricing model keeps a large majority of 2nd and 3rd-tier countries out. Whoop creates the marketing, Helio satiates the demand. I see what you're saying from a long-term perspective, though, but this would only be a short-term arb trade that I hope I can time this year. We saw what an inflection in demand can do to a stock like this last year when it went from $2 to $60. $ZEPP

@nitininvests whoop is 9b valuation vs 200m, less DAUs.  But selling hardware is hard. They need to convert to a subs biz, but it seems subs rev is marginal. I see value for customers, don't see value for me as an investor. Would only buy if I see them being acquired (how can I predict that?)


I do agree, talked to a couple of drug store employees and they did mention the price for product ratio doesn't make sense after these ridiculous prices increases. You can get far superior product for the same price of $ELF

Summary: Bearish ELF: price increases hurt value proposition; quality concerns from personal experience; hesitant to build a larger position.

Thanks for your input. I do agree, talked to a couple of drug store employees and they did mention the price for product ratio doesn’t make sense after these ridiculous prices increases. You can get far superior product for the same price of $ELF. The only reason why I was hesitant around building a larger position here was because of any potential sell-in with Rhode being introduced at Sephora but I agree with the sentiment. My wife purchased one of their products and didn’t like the quality.

@nitinkinvest As a female, $ELF keeps increasing prices and forgetting why consumers used to buy their products.  Hailey has a great PR team that pumped the hype around Rhode.  I don’t know anyone in real life that cares about Rhode and I’ve never seen anyone use the products in the wild.


They are completely offsides. You have to realize that the Tria Laser segment contributed effectively zero to this year's revenue, and the ZIIP Beauty segment is just getting started. I believe Tria Laser's relaunch is a massive opportunity for the company and the LED mask craze will only grow atleast in the short term.

Summary: Long TBTG.L: consensus ~10% growth estimates vs company guidance of 35%+ growth; Tria Laser relaunch and ZIIP Beauty upside not priced in.

The ticker is $TBTG.L. As expected, we got the January guidance update and the numbers are just like we had estimated:

• Top Line: Updated for at least 35% growth (vs prior 28% expectations).
• Consensus is still sitting at ~10% growth estimates for next year.

They are completely offsides. You have to realize that the Tria Laser segment contributed effectively zero to this year's revenue, and the ZIIP Beauty segment is just getting started. CurrentBody alone will probably grow at 20% next year base case (90%+ of group’s revenue), so the market is expecting £0 to come from Tria.

Regarding the tech, the CurrentBody Mask is widely considered the best option on the market. It’s one of the only devices that actually heals crow's feet. Compare that to the Shark Cryo Glow, where the cooling pads physically block the LED light from treating the under-eye area making CurrentBody infinitely more efficient for that specific problem.

I believe Tria Laser’s relaunch is a massive opportunity for the company and the LED mask craze will only grow atleast in the short term. Stock up 5% this morning.

Working on a write-up and will share in a couple of weeks.


Summary: Watching Capcom as a potential long on strong Resident Evil 9 early demand signals despite recent missteps.

Early reviews for Capcom’s upcoming Resident Evil 9 $9697.T have been extremely positive. The Steelbook, Deluxe, and Generation Pack editions have all sold out and are fetching crazy markups. Preorders also look decent. The game is launching with minimal prerelease advertising, so it’s too early to tell if this is a viable trade, but it’s one I’m definitely watching. The company has had several recent missteps, which is clearly reflected in the stock price.


Summary: Small speculative long on RZLV; guidance of $350M doubles $170M consensus, divergence expected to resolve upward.

$RZLV guidance just doubled the consensus estimates ($350M vs $170M). Management is also forecasting a $40M/mo revenue exit rate for Dec 2026.

Small speculative buy here. This level of divergence between Street estimates and Management guidance usually resolves aggressively in one direction.


Summary: Bullish MSGM; price action suggests positioning long ahead of earnings date announcement.

$MSGM looks like people were waiting for the earnings date announcement to position long.

I know most people didn’t read the SS post, so I wanted to share my thoughts on the $MSGM setup, which I believe is extremely compelling heading into 2026. Thanks to @DMetropolitan for bringing this to my attention.

I believe the set up is massively misunderstood and offers https://t.co/FVsj6NJTEl


Summary: Long MSGM: official WEC e-gaming partner returning in 2024 with higher traction, incremental ~50% gross margin revenues, and Verstappen hype boosting GT3.

$MSGM is and should continue to benefit from this trend as the official partner of WEC, with the e-gaming events set to return this year after the 2023 event. The e-gaming segment should contribute incremental revenues to the PnL at ~50% gross margins and is expected to be bigger this time due to greater traction for both the game and the event. Additionally, GT3 continues to gain hype with Max Verstappen now driving in these events.

---

$MSGM


Summary: Bullish Hobonichi into earnings: zero inventory, parabolic search trends, sold-out signals suggest strong beat despite management sandbagging guidance.

We've been here before with Hobonichi (3560.T). Last quarter, the data predicted a strong beat, but management refused to raise guidance.

Hoping this quarter is different.

It is Jan 3rd, and channel checks show inventory is effectively zero.

• Search volume is still going parabolic
• 'Sold Out' threads are flooding the Subreddit

I might be wrong on this one but given the data the risk/reward going into earnings remains enticing.

Hobonichi Inc - 3560.T another very strong month on Amazon for the company. Truly believe they are sandbagging the guide. Search trends for "Hobonchi" up 45% MoM and up 530% YoY. "Hobonchi Planner" is up 10x MoM and is the 10th most searched keyword on Amazon over the last 7 https://t.co/nIYlXSmF45


Summary: Small speculative long in BROS into earnings on strong October social data and expected guide raise.

$BROS probably reports decent numbers today and raises guide as the social data for October looks very strong but not quite sure about the price action given the market and valuation. Small speculative position for earnings.


I believe a significant information arbitrage opportunity still exists in $SIF... which makes me think $28-$30 is achievable... I expect a re-rating toward the $30 range.

Summary: Long SIF with $28-30 price target; argues LIFO distortion and booking velocity mean the stock is materially undervalued at ~10x normalized earnings.

I believe a significant information arbitrage  opportunity still exists in $SIF. There are several accounting nuances that obscure the company's true earnings power. There is a material disconnect between the reported figures and the underlying fundamentals which makes me think $28-$30 is achievable.

1. The reported COGS is currently overstated due to LIFO accounting. In the most recent quarter, the LIFO effect was $1.182 million. Under FIFO accounting the net income would have been ~26% higher for H1.

2. Book-to-bill was a staggering 1.69x. Eventhough, $SIF reported a blockbuster quarter, their bookings exploded even higher.

3. The Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) expected to be realized within the next 12 months have moved significantly higher too. This provides a high degree of visibility and effectively derisks earnings expectations for the remainder of the year.

4. Reported revenue growth of 39% is impressive, but is understated on a like-for-like basis due to customer-supplied materials that I have called out multiple times. Because SIFCO is starting to process materials owned by the client, the top-line revenue figure doesn't capture the full scale of throughput as the materials portion is generally higher than the service portion in this industry. This is evidenced by the massive operating leverage being driven through the business. The actual activity is far greater than the $26.4M revenue figure suggests compared to PY.

At current levels, the market is valuing $SIF at roughly 10x normalized earnings, failing to account for the LIFO distortion and the sheer velocity of the current booking cycle. I expect a re-rating toward the $30 range.

Been talking about how asymmetric this $SIF setup is over the last few days, and they just delivered in a big way.

- Revenue: up 39% YoY
- Gross margin going from 8.25% to 21.41%
- Backlog growing from $139M to $158M

Couldn't be more excited about these numbers. The thesis is https://t.co/wCL35q2RDK


Summary: Conditionally bullish CRSR: if DDR5 supply mitigation works, stock could rally on memory + Fanatec trends.

I have been researching $CRSR recently, mostly due to the strong trends for Fanatec. Additionally, search trends for their RAM products have been very strong and could contribute meaningfully to margins. The major risk, which led to tempered guidance for the category, remains supply, as they can't sell what they can't source. Importantly, memory was roughly 34% of Corsair's Q3 revenue. Gamer and Creator Peripherals Segment is a mixed bag and needs further work.

Management Quote:

"This adjustment assumes a conservative outlook for Q4, primarily to account for a tight DDR5 memory market and reflects the latest estimated customer spending patterns. While Corsair has a strong mitigation plan in place for memory availability, we believe it is prudent to temper expectations on the upside in this category."

If the mitigation plans work and they are able to secure supply, Corsair could catch a bid here.


Casio offers the best risk/reward IMO. Still very early to this trade. Market is still lagging the social inflection here.

Summary: Long Casio as best risk/reward on brand-velocity social inflection; also long Citizen and Seiko on same trend but lower conviction.

The brand-velocity is undeniable. We’re seeing a persistent shift in consumer heat on StockX and $ZUMZ coupled with a major spike in Reddit mentions. Market is still lagging the social inflection here. Still very early to this trade. Citizen ($7762.T) and Seiko ($8050.T) also looking strong but Casio offers the best risk/reward IMO.

$6952.T (Casio) continues to show powerful global inflection. Seeing G-SHOCK in particular show up on multiple "Top 10" lists across major tracking channels.

The stock recently hit a 4-year high on the back of a significant Q3 '26 earnings beat and a newly announced ¥5 billion https://t.co/m6UaMEGUUG


Citizen ($7762.T) and Seiko ($8050.T) also looking strong


Summary: Bullish FNKO; brand/cultural significance makes failure unlikely, debt situation expected to resolve.

$FNKO Could it have been any more obvious? As I said, this asset and its cultural significance are too high for it to fail. https://t.co/W80SzRj1Fd

@AstutexAi I really like $FNKO. I think their debt situation will get resolved. The brand is too big to fail, and someone will want it. The new strategy of being fast to market with viral collaborations can do wonders for them, but execution risks remain given the history. The other one I


Summary: Bullish PINS: potential AI licensing deals for interaction/metadata could add near-100% margin revenue stream and diversify away from ads.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

If OpenAI - Pinterest can’t reach a deal, a licensing arrangement might be a another option for $PINS. A licensing deal would probably have near 100% margins and diversify the business away from ads. Other LLMs will likely sketch deals after too.

They might not be able to license the images directly to OpenAI without copyright issues, but they can license the interaction data and the metadata which is becoming increasingly rare and extremely valuable.


makes me think they are being conservative and should easily beat that 12% guide for the year... backlog for next year is incredibly strong... SK Hynix being a strategic investor is incredibly bullish... demands a huge premium and is a massive moat in my opinion

Summary: Bullish PENG: conservative guidance implies beats ahead, strong backlog, SK Hynix strategic investment de-risks supply and creates moat; MemoryAI/CXL a key differentiator.

@pennycheck @ThematicTrader Will do! 🫡

---

Hey guys, sorry I'm late, it was a crazy busy day at work. I see you guys already shared some great insights on the $PENG Needham call!

For me, the biggest takeaways were the following:

1. If you look at the mid-point of the 12% guide and the segment guides from the Q2 call, my calculations imply an AI factory segment revenue of $1.02B for FY'27. However, with Kash explicitly saying this is well over a $1 billion business, it makes me think they are being conservative and should easily beat that 12% guide for the year.

2. With the guidance basically achieved, there is a very good chance their backlog for next year is incredibly strong. They mentioned it takes 3-6 months to convert backlog into revenue, so that pipeline is locked in. Also, "Nobody else in the market has a product like MemoryAI, which is helping our customers and helping us win deals." That CXL product is a massive differentiator right now and their partnership with $MRVL makes this a great opportunity (they also have partnership with $DELL, $AMD, $NVDA as we know).

3. SK Hynix being a strategic investor is incredibly bullish and honestly something I didn't fully realize until they mentioned it. This completely de-risks the supply issue. Procuring demand is a massive constraint for everyone else, but them saying we've been able to access it and serve as much demand as we can and that the relationship helps with margins is quite massive.

Maybe too much of a stretch but long-term, this could possibly lead to SK Hynix promoting PENG's products against competitors. It also gives PENG immense leverage with rack builders and larger enterprises because clients know PENG actually has the supply to deliver. That alone demands a huge premium and is a massive moat in my opinion.


Summary: Conditionally bullish VFC: Vans showing green shoots, other brands outperforming, bullish post-earnings price action signals potential rocket if Vans recovery confirms.

I agree, I think it was pretty much as expected. TNF, Timbs, and Altra killing it, Vans DTC returning to growth for the first time in years. I think they’re pulling all the right levers, and personally I do see green shoots. I’m seeing people wearing Vans around me again. I haven’t increased my small position but I’m keeping a very close eye on this one because as soon as Vans turns (if it does), this thing is going to be a rocket ship. The price action post-earnings was very bullish too. Selling absorption in the current market environment is a telltale sign.

@GanSic966 @nitinkinvest It's actually quite funny because both $DECK and $VFC have now highest quant rating in my Textiles, Apparel & Luxury watchlist (based on technicals + earnings call), i own none of them and dont plan to. Still see them grow in line with the market - Vans no improvement really and


Summary: Planning to buy HAS on dips; bullish thesis on Airbender set being a massive success.

I am not too confident about this one. I think the next one should be the bigger ones. The Spider-Man set has been decent but not a massive success like Final Fantasy. Will be buying if the stock drops as thesis rests on the success of the Airbender set which I think will be massive for $HAS

@nitinkinvests Is Hasbro still looking good for earnings?


The FCC's crackdown on Chinese/foreign gear is creating a massive moat for domestic players and possibly benefitting $UI stock further in the process

Summary: FCC crackdown on foreign gear creates moat for domestic players; NTGR is standout, UI still a beneficiary, ATEX a potential play under research.

Left a lot on the table with $UI, my biggest mistake this year after messing up $SNDK last year. Up ~80% in 3 months; the data was there, I just overanalyzed a simple thesis, lessons learnt. The FCC’s crackdown on Chinese/foreign gear is creating a massive moat for domestic players and possibly benefitting $UI stock further in the process. $NTGR appears to be the current standout getting the early approval + cheap valuation and a clean looking chart. $ATEX is a potential beneficiary as well from the initial research, but I’m still digging into the company and the opportunity.

LONG POST:

Fwiw I want to start by saying that I am explaining the reason for this exit in detail so that people can truly understand my trading style and the logic behind my process. It is important to clarify that I still believe Ubiquiti $UI will have a blowout Q2 quarter


$NTGR appears to be the current standout getting the early approval + cheap valuation and a clean looking chart


$ATEX is a potential beneficiary as well from the initial research


the deal confirms the Pentagon's aggressive capital allocation edge computing, a direct read-through for OSS. DoDs requirements for systems (OSS) should naturally dwarf components (MRAM)

Summary: Long OSS: DoD MRAM contract validates edge computing tailwinds; Pentagon systems spend should dwarf components, benefiting OSS.

Feel like the $40M DoD contract awarded to $MRAM today validates the massive thematic tailwinds for $OSS. To me the deal confirms the Pentagon’s aggressive capital allocation edge computing, a direct read-through for OSS. DoDs requirements for systems (OSS) should naturally dwarf components (MRAM).


Canada dropping EV tariffs doesn't help Tesla because Canadians on both sides of the aisle don't like Elon. Cheap Chinese imports won't fix a broken brand reputation.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: brand reputation damage from Musk backlash means Canada EV tariff removal won't benefit Tesla.

@MarioNawfal Canada dropping EV tariffs doesn't help Tesla because Canadians on both sides of the aisle don’t like Elon. Cheap Chinese imports won’t fix a broken brand reputation.

🇨🇳🇨🇦 CANADA DROPS TARIFFS ON CHINA EVS AND TESLA MOVES IN FAST

Canada just cut its 100% tariff on Chinese EVs, and Tesla is already way ahead of everyone else.

It’s got 39 stores, a Canada-ready Model Y built in Shanghai, and no learning curve like BYD or Nio.

With 49,000 cars https://t.co/z2MtmmDvNE


Summary: Long RMBS as the way to play server CPU buildout; 4x MRDIMM content multiplier + CPU/GPU ratio shift benefits memory interface biz regardless of who wins CPU war.

Of course not an expert on this market but $RMBS seems like the obvious long after that $AMD announcement today.

Rambus could really scale with this new TAM expansion for CPUs. Their traditional memory interface business is tied entirely to server volume, and the complexity of these new AI platforms acts as a huge multiplier for them.

Last year the CEO said, “The content on an MRDIMM is 4x the content of what we offer today on a standard DIMM, the timing is going to be linked to the rollout of platforms from mainly Intel and AMD.”

This 4x multiplier on content should scale with more CPUs sold. The CEO also said, “If you look at the types of architectures that inference requires, you clearly see that the ratio between CPUs and GPUs is changing in favor of CPUs. So overall, that’s a very good thing for us.”

They appear to be completely agnostic to the architecture. Every new CPU hitting the data center would need memory modules and buffer chips. It feels like a great way to play this server buildout because you can win regardless of which company ultimately wins the CPU war.


Summary: Long UI: strong web traffic, growing community, rising ASPs, beat likely, huge TAM-expanding announcements ahead should rerate higher.

$UI data continues to look strong. Web traffic is holding up and the Reddit community is growing nicely on a daily basis. The only earnings risk is product availability, but with ASPs increasing as they move into higher value products, we should still see a handsome beat.

Expect the acceleration to continue, huge announcements are lined up this year that could expand TAM massively and rerate the stock higher.

$UI Webstore traffic is up over 50% YoY both for the Americas (52% of total revenue) and the EU (36% of total revenue). Webstore accounted for 43% of total sales in the prior quarter, with the share increasing YoY. Margins are much higher on the Webstore. The market is estimating https://t.co/9EO0cecVH3


I already have a position in the name and continue to buy. I feel $UI is a very attractive name here.

Summary: Holds and continues buying UI; finds it very attractive despite key-man risk from 93% owner Robert Pera.

@NirunLFC 1. I already have a position in the name and continue to buy.
2. Nothing as of now. I feel $UI is a very attractive name here. The only reason for not allocating a significant portion is due to key man risk, with Robert Pera owning 93% of the company.

@nitinkinvest 1. What are you looking for before starting a position? 2. Do you not see more attractive and safer names out there?


Summary: Long MSGM; still holding, sees earnings + multiple expansion ahead, calls it ridiculously cheap.

I generally just look at the alt data and community sentiment. If that changes, then I plan to sell. We have the perfect recipe of earnings expansion and significant multiple expansion potential. This thing is ridiculously cheap. Congrats to all $MSGM holders. I know this probably felt like a shitco to most people. Thanks to @DMetropolitan, he brought this to my attention.

@nitininvests Is this a long term hold for you, thesis still in tact


Summary: Bullish MSGM: Mike Zoi overhang nearly exhausted (~50% of intended sales done), removal of selling pressure should trigger a rerate.

$MSGM has no real reason for the sell-off other than the overhang of almost ~28% of the total o/s shares held by Mike Zoi imo, as I mentioned in the article. In March he has accounted for 11% to 31% of the daily selling volume. So there is a good chance that at least 20% of the total 1.5M shares traded yesterday and today were sales by him, meaning roughly 50% of the shares he intends to sell have already been sold. I believe once this downward pressure ends, the stock should rerate.

$MSGM delivered a brilliant quarter across all metrics imo.

The valuation disconnect is baffling. The company has roughly 5.1 million shares o/s and a market cap of around $23 million. With a $6 million cash position (as of February 2026), the enterprise value is just $17


I plan to triple down if the stock indeed comes under pressure

Summary: Bullish Casio; plans to triple down on price weakness from Nikkei removal, citing strong Amazon trends, +30% web traffic, and Japan as safe-haven beneficiary of Middle East tensions.

$6952.T (Casio) Amazon search trends continue to look strong, and website traffic is also up ~30% YoY for February. I think the ongoing Middle East tensions could fundamentally reshape global travel routes. Japan could emerge as the ultimate safe-haven beneficiary, continuing to aid massive consumption tailwind for domestic staples like Casio.

I am pulling Amazon data requests today. Drop a keyword or company ticker in the replies and I’ll try to get you the data ASAP.


one I'm really liking for earnings is $MSGM. Medium-risk play but could be a potential multibagger

Summary: Bullish MSGM into earnings as a medium-risk potential multibagger with a material turning point this quarter.

$MSGM article is now live for anyone interested (link in bio). 😀

Not my idea, but one I'm really liking for earnings is $MSGM. Working on an SS post and hoping to share it this weekend, link in the bio (no paywall). Medium-risk play but could be a potential multibagger.

The current quarter is shaping up to be a material turning point, as https://t.co/PbLP53E3Ew


Summary: Bullish Capcom on RE9 Steam peak eclipsing franchise record + strong early sales signals.

RE9 eclipsed the previous franchise Steam peak of 168,000 set by RE4 Remake. The stock could continue to perform exceptionally well here. The early signs were definitely there. https://t.co/iOZjopCnhO

Early reviews for Capcom’s upcoming Resident Evil 9 $9697.T have been extremely positive. The Steelbook, Deluxe, and Generation Pack editions have all sold out and are fetching crazy markups. Preorders also look decent. The game is launching with minimal prerelease advertising,


Summary: Bullish MSGM: cracking Steam top 100, strong DAUs near ATH, v1.3 well-received, ELM Pack 3 launch could set new DAU record.

$MSGM is finally cracking the top 100 seller list on Steam! It’s been hovering around #200 for weeks, so this is a solid step up and should translate nicely into stronger revenue.

DAUs remain strong and within 10% of the all-time peak from 2 months ago. The v1.3 update dropped this week and has been very well received. With the ELM Pack 3 launching alongside it on March 31, we could see DAUs hit a new record next week.

Things are looking very healthy for the game and the stock.


Summary: Holds a decent-sized position in CGEH; supply chain import data shows massive operational ramp with sustained spike in C1000S unit imports.

Fwiw i have been tracking the supply chain import data closely for past few months and it looks like $CGEH might be undergoing a massive operational ramp. Seeing a huge, sustained spike in physical imports specifically for their expensive, large-capacity C1000S (1-Megawatt) units. April has seen over 35,000 Kgs of import as well (that chart is as off the first week of April). Have a decent sized position since @everyonehatesp1 wrote it up last year. @pernasresearch also owns the name if I am not wrong.


I maintain a small tracker position in the stock, as I've been monitoring their recent strategic pivot closely. I'm expecting a decent set of numbers this afternoon

Summary: Holds tracker position in FNKO into Q4 earnings today; expects decent numbers driven by Q4 IP cadence and strategic pivot toward real-time culture brand.

$FNKO is reporting its Q4 2025 earnings after the market closes today. I maintain a small tracker position in the stock, as I’ve been monitoring their recent strategic pivot closely.

I’m expecting a decent set of numbers this afternoon, driven by the Q4 release cadence (Stranger Things and Wicked). The standout for ia of course Pop Hunters and K-Pop Demon Hunter collections. Their ability to identify the KPop/Anime crossover and get products on shelves before the competition is a major competitive advantage. They have been vocal about working with licensing partners to make these trend first releases a priority.

I also want to highlight the recent addition of Reed Duchscher to the Board of Directors. For those unfamiliar, Reed is the strategist behind the MrBeast empire. Bringing on a board member who fundamentally understands the creator economy and how to manufacture virality is a massive step in the right direction. It signals that Funko is moving away from being just a toy company and toward being a real-time culture brand.


Summary: Long SHLS on BESS optionality, cheap valuation, and improving margins post factory relocation.

@Venu_7_ $SHLS is also looking very good too. BESS optionality, cheap valuation, and with the factory relocation done, subsequent quarters should look better.

solar names are starting to come back to life again.

- Stage 2 uptrends with lots of accumulation
- high short interest names
- midterms approaching

$ENPH $NXT $FSLR $SEDG https://t.co/LlYhEaOebm


Summary: Pair trade: long BROS on organic brand growth / straw-code virality, short SBUX on loyalty-program changes alienating core customers.

Long $BROS / Short $SBUX: A social arb trade that could work but needs more research. Consumer sentiment divergence is stark.

$SBUX: They recent revamped their loyalty program and are devaluing points and complicating earn rates under the guise of a new tier system. This seems to be actively alienating their core customer base and threatening long-term retention.

$BROS: Capturing market share through organic brand affinity. The “straw code” trend is amassing millions of views driving foot traffic and free marketing through authentic cultural relevance.

One brand is testing the limits of its fatigued customer base and the other is acquiring customers for free through organic engagement.


Summary: Long UI into H1: strong launch cadence + spillover benefits make projected QoQ decline unlikely; supply-constrained not demand-constrained.

Very positive comments! I think this is a name that will work well for both short-term social arb traders and buy-and-hold investors, so I'm structuring the write-up that way. The only way I see them missing numbers this quarter is due to supply constraints, not demand slowdown as they've been notorious for never having enough product. Otherwise, it's hard to see the projected QoQ decline for $UI given the strong launch cadence this quarter and spillover benefits from last quarter's huge releases. Very excited for this trade for H1.

@nitinkinvest Read first comment on Reddit post. https://t.co/WDmSAbPjFA


Summary: Bullish Seiko on brand momentum; expects a material beat-and-raise.

6286.T Seiko, much like Casio, is seeing a substantial momentum in brand heat. Expect the company to beat and raise materially. No position! https://t.co/NUI731f86d


Summary: Bullish UI: webstore traffic up 50%+ YoY, margins expanding, market underestimating; expects significant re-rating driven by 93% CEO ownership and 25%-of-float buyback.

$UI Webstore traffic is up over 50% YoY both for the Americas (52% of total revenue) and the EU (36% of total revenue). Webstore accounted for 43% of total sales in the prior quarter, with the share increasing YoY. Margins are much higher on the Webstore. The market is estimating a sequential decline. Writing a deep-dive on this idea and will share the link (no paywall, ever), as I think it can rerate significantly in short order given the CEO owns 93% of the company and repurchase program is 25% of the total float.

The alt data for $UI looks incredibly bullish. I've been tracking this stock for a year but never felt comfortable opening a position due to the limited management commentary available. Will share more data over the coming days. https://t.co/LbVHAfwU93


Summary: Speculative long FUBO on ESPN/YouTube TV dispute tailwind; lower churn and skinny bundles may convert trials to subscribers this time.

$FUBO could be an interesting speculative long here with the ESPN YouTube TV dispute. App data looks strong but conversions are a huge question mark.

Fubo holders will recall the Hulu outage and the DirectTv dispute last year where Fubo got some short term tailwinds but trials didn’t convert to users.

This time it could be different because management mentioned that churn was down 50% YoY in Q3 and they now have skinny bundles which they can leverage to gain more paid subscribers even if the ARPU is lower. One to watch closely!


Summary: Bullish Casio on return to topline growth; China recovering, India accelerating, US/Europe inflecting — early innings of a material re-rating.

Casio 6952.T posted really good numbers, as we expected, and is finally returning to growth. China, which has been a drag for a while, is also returning to growth. The topline here has been stagnant for years, and I believe we are in the very early stages of a material inflection for this business.

@AstutexAi That was the name I was going to share the other day, Dmitry. Glad you're looking into this one too. China's slowdown is probably the only risk, but Casio’s biggest market—India—seems to be accelerating. United States and Europe are starting to show good growth as well. Last


Channel checks for Hobonichi $3560.T continue to look very robust... The setup looks very strong here

Summary: Long Hobonichi on robust channel checks, premiumization via 2026 collabs, JPY tailwind, and demand exceeding supply constraints into earnings.

Channel checks for Hobonichi $3560.T continue to look very robust. As you can see in the attached screenshot from https://t.co/l4FQTLg82k, 190 items are already sold out vs 141 in stock (most of which are also running low). Reddit is filled with comments about people missing out on their desired collections.

The setup looks very strong here:

Premiumization: Higher ASPs due to major collabs in 2026 should drive positive mix, which should help both the topline and bottom line.

Macro: Tariffs could play spoil sport, but the decline in JPYUSD is a massive tailwind for the financials and is boosting tourism which further aids Hobonichi.

The Guide: The only way they don't meaningfully beat the guide is supply constraints (specifically Tomoe River paper availability), not demand.

Looking forward to the report!

Why I'm Bullish on the Japanese Cult Brand Hobonichi 3560.T.

Hobinichi is a Japanese company that sells premium paper planners. Hobonichi is far beyond a stationery company. It's a content-driven, community-powered lifestyle brand with a fiercely loyal global following.

I https://t.co/ixG9xQlXgP


Summary: Initiated long CLFD; BEAD funding + fiber-for-EdgeAI narrative expected to catalyze into 2027.

BEAD funding picking up next year should be a huge catalyst for $CLFD in 2027 as well. I initiated a position yesterday after $DUOT mentioned the importance of fiber for EdgeAI data centers. The narrative should pick up over the coming months, especially with the attention Armada is also getting.


Summary: Bullish PENG, ALAB, MRVL, and MU on accelerating CXL adoption; PENG catalyst expected tomorrow.

$PENG thesis seems to be very strong, shout out to @pennycheck . $ALAB, $MRVL, and $3529.TWO have all stated they are seeing growing adoption for CXL, and it is almost certain the $PENG management team will reiterate this tomorrow. Super interesting to see what they say regarding the order velocity they are seeing themselves.

$MRVL and Samsung, along with $MU making the famfs file system free and open-source, really makes you think they are actively supporting the CXL movement.

I’d highly recommend reading Alfred Bratterud's paper on the importance of CXL. The potential it offers for AI is insane. They proved it can deliver a 40x latency reduction over high-end NVMe drives and a 3.3x throughput jump when handling massive datasets. It even allows for instant server scaling without moving any data. The tech could really be a game changer.


$ALAB, $MRVL, and $3529.TWO have all stated they are seeing growing adoption for CXL


$MRVL and Samsung, along with $MU making the famfs file system free and open-source, really makes you think they are actively supporting the CXL movement


$MU making the famfs file system free and open-source, really makes you think they are actively supporting the CXL movement


Summary: Long UI as a direct beneficiary of the vibe coding trend, with a massive unseen catalyst beyond the social arb thesis.

$UI deep dive is live. Beyond the social arb thesis, there is a massive unseen catalyst: Ubiquiti is a direct beneficiary of the "vibe coding" shift. Link in Bio! (No paywall).


The setup for $DUOT looks good from a risk/reward perspective as several massive catalysts start to converge... the stock could catch a bid

Summary: Long DUOT on APR Energy buyout catalyst, $176M Hydra Host contract, secured power assets, and potential hyperscaler strategic investment.

The setup for $DUOT looks good from a risk/reward prespective as several massive catalysts start to converge. The biggest immediate one is the recent FTC filing confirming Elon Musk is acquiring the parent company of APR Energy. Since DUOS holds a 5% equity stake in that entity, this buyout could act as a massive value unlock driver.

Beyond the APR stake, the operational side is rapidly derisking as well. They have a $176 million contract locked in with Founders Fund-backed Hydra Host, and the $15 million prepayment is already sitting on the balance sheet. The management noted that this relationship is increasingly getting stronger. When you pair that with the news this morning that Armada just raised capital at a $2 billion valuation, the space is starting to get some eyeballs.

The stock is still highly speculative but has a compelling multi-thematic exposure across GPUaaS and Edge AI with the incredibly strategic asset of secured power in Tier 3 and 4 markets. The CEO's track record is strong and he also noted having open conversations with hyperscalers for a potential strategic investment, the stock could catch a bid.

@SarkisianJeff Thanks for sharing this, Jeff! I'm am getting interested in $DUOT too. The setup is starting to look a lot cleaner with the legacy rail business moving out of the picture. The APR stake could hold some solid hidden value and the Hydra Host partnership seems to be gaining momentum


Summary: Bullish Casio: India accelerating, US/Europe growing, best quarter in two years, G-Shock momentum; minor revenue upside seen as massively rewarded.

That was the name I was going to share the other day, Dmitry. Glad you're looking into this one too. China's slowdown is probably the only risk, but Casio’s biggest market—India—seems to be accelerating. United States and Europe are starting to show good growth as well. Last quarter was the best in the last two years, and the trends for G-Shock and Casio started to meaningfully take off in September. Minor top-line expansion could be massively rewarded given the lacklustre performance.

Casio absolutely crushing it lately $6952 https://t.co/xcHHXYdlBE


I added after the print when the stock was down to $4.50 AH. The game could completely fall off, but I had to increase my position. This vertical alone should be worth the market cap, to be honest.

Summary: Added to long MSGM at $4.50 AH; RaceControl ARR beat ($3M vs $2.5M est), multiple revenue streams make it undervalued vs market cap.

I agree with everything there. I do wonder how much of this volume is Mike Zoi selling his shares. We’ll find out later this week.

I added after the print when the stock was down to $4.50 AH. The game could completely fall off, but I had to increase my position. I wasn’t expecting RaceControl to already be at around $3M ARR for $MSGM (my estimate was $2.5M).  This vertical alone should be worth the market cap, to be honest. Then we have the RaceControl platform, licensing revenue, game sales, DLC sales, console port, upcoming virtual event (which will contribute to revenue and was $0 for the last two years), and the platform with substantial NRV no one talks about.

It makes no sense, but I’m glad the market doesn’t appreciate it yet; hence the opportunity.

@nitininvests Interesting seeing ~800k shares trade after hours. Expected some pre-market continuation. Wonder if institutions are building. November earnings spiked but earnings much weaker. Long either way, AH volume felt odd. Thoughts?


the underlying metrics are pointing in a highly positive direction... I am projecting Q1 total revenue to land between $4.2M and $4.6M... My internal assessment was for the revenue to be around $4.5M for the quarter

Summary: Bullish MSGM into Q1 earnings; detailed model projects $4.25-4.5M revenue on 34% player growth and strong DLC attach rates.

With Motorsport Games $MSGM scheduled to report their Q1 earnings on Wednesday, May 13th, I wanted to walk through my updated earnings model and share my expectations for the quarter.

Overall, the underlying metrics are pointing in a highly positive direction, but I am keeping my official estimates slightly conservative to account for the timing of the ELMS Pack 3 release which happened on the last day of the quarter. Here is a breakdown of how I am modeling Q1 and the catalysts I'm watching closely.

Based on recent traffic and sales data, I am projecting Q1 total revenue to land between $4.2M and $4.6M, with $4.25M being the most probable scenario.

Here is the breakdown of the underlying data driving this model:

1. Game Sales: Up 15% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ).

2. Average Player Count: Up an impressive 34% QoQ.

3. RaceControl Revenue: Projected at $900K for the quarter, though the model indicates we could see an upside surprise of up to $1.05M.

4. RaceControl Traffic: Up 14% QoQ.

5. The DLC Dynamic: ELMS Pack 3 was launched (last one of the European Series) which will see deferred revenue recognition hitting the books for the players who previously purchased the season pass. Also, the massive influx of new players entering the ecosystem during Q1 creates a compounding effect whereby the new cohort now has a larger catalog of DLCs to purchase to catch up to the Q4 players. Management has already noted that the DLC attach rate is very strong, meaning this larger player base directly translates to a higher revenue per new user.

Why These Numbers Are Conservative

You might look at the 34% jump in average players and wonder why the revenue base case is sitting at $4.25M. The main reason is that unlike previous quarters where the DLCs were released a few days before the end of the quarter, ELMS Pack 3 dropped on the final day of Q1, there is a very high probability that a significant chunk of the direct revenue from the DLC purchase itself took a few days to fully realize, meaning it will spill over into the April (Q2).

My internal assessment was for the revenue to be around $4.5M for the quarter as the engagement numbers were very strong for Q1 with the game hitting the #29 spot on the Steam Top Sellers list.

$MSGM up 50% since my thesis less than 3 months ago. My Q1 projections are overwhelmingly bullish, so much so that I'm re-running the numbers with new data points this weekend just to be safe. It’s an incredibly misunderstood stock. If earnings drop next week, the current broader


$SIF appears to be offering a massive info arb right now. the more I research this, the more excited I get. The quality of these earnings is vastly superior to what the market is currently pricing in.

Summary: Long SIF: info arb on optically compressed revenues, superior earnings quality, and structurally higher margins as sales mix improves.

$SIF appears to be offering a massive info arb right now. the more I research this, the more excited I get. Top-line revenue numbers appear to be optically compressed too with some customers now starting to supply their own raw materials. The value of these materials is being completely excluded from the reported net sales in Q1, something that was not present in their earlier annual filings.

While this depresses headline revenue, it simultaneously reduces COGS, meaning the impact on gross profit is entirely neutral. If SIFCO had procured these materials themselves, their reported top-line for the quarter would have been noticeably higher. The quality of these earnings is vastly superior to what the market is currently pricing in.

Furthermore, management explicitly noted that their recent margin surge is being driven by a strategic shift in sales mix and the exit of lower-margin business. As this transition continues, don't be surprised to see SIFCO's numbers continue to inflect with structurally higher margins as Mr. Market finally catches up to the story.

Looking deep into $SIF (SIFCO Industries). It looks incredibly enticing optically with a highly relevant thematic tailwind and a great setup! Well positioned for the aerospace and defense recovery, driven by surging Boeing 737 MAX/787 production and record, stable F-35 contracts