Summary: Comprehensive pre-earnings bull case for RKLB: $1.3B+ SDA backlog, record Electron cadence, vertical integration moat; key risk is Neutron timeline update on Feb 26 call.

THE ULTIMATE $RKLB INVESTMENT REPORT

Pre-Earnings Analysis. 8 days to go. This is EVERYTHING you need to know!

THE BUSINESS MODEL ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Rocket Lab operates two segments: Launch Services and Space Systems. It has evolved from a pure-play small rocket launcher into a vertically integrated end-to-end space infrastructure company.

LAUNCH SERVICES (~30% of Revenue)
Rocket Lab's launch business centres on Electron, the world's most frequently launched small orbital rocket.

 Electron delivers payloads of up to 300 kg to LEO at ~$8M per launch. In 2025, Rocket Lab completed a record 21 Electron launches with 100% mission success, bringing total career launches to 80.

The value proposition is dedicated launch — rather than forcing customers to wait months for a rideshare, Electron gives each customer their own rocket with precise orbital insertion on their preferred timeline.

Over 90% of components are manufactured in-house.

HASTE is a suborbital Electron variant used for hypersonic technology testing for U.S. national security programs, supporting initiatives like the "Golden Dome" missile defence programme.

Under development: Neutron, a medium-lift reusable rocket designed to deliver 13,000 kg to LEO (15,000 kg expendable), powered by nine Archimedes engines (oxidizer-rich staged combustion, LOX/methane). Neutron targets constellation deployment, national security, and deep-space missions — and is key to breaking SpaceX's near-monopoly in medium-lift.

SPACE SYSTEMS (~70% of Revenue)
This is where the real money is today. The segment covers:
— Satellite manufacturing: Full spacecraft build for government and commercial customers. The $816M SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 contract (18 satellites) is Rocket Lab's largest single award.
— Components: Reaction wheels, star trackers, solar panels (SolAero), separation systems, satellite radios — many at 60-70% gross margins.
— Payloads: Following the GEOST acquisition, Rocket Lab now produces electro-optical and infrared sensors for national security.
— Spacecraft operations: Mission management software and ground station services.
— Laser communications: Pending Mynaric acquisition adds optical comms capability and a European manufacturing base.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Revenue (9M 2025): $422M (+39% YoY)
Q3 2025 revenue: $155M (+48% YoY) — beat estimates
GAAP gross margin: 37% | Non-GAAP: 41.9%
Q4 2025 guidance: $170-180M → ~$590-600M full year Backlog: ~$1.1B (+56% YoY);
57% converts within 12 months
Total SDA contracts (inc. Dec 2025 award): >$1.3B Gross profit: ~doubled YoY ($79M → $140M through Q3)
 Loss per share: $(0.03) in Q3 vs. $(0.10) expected
Cash: >$1B (following $468.8M ATM equity offering)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 2. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
ROCKET LAB vs. SPACEX vs. FIREFLY
Rocket Lab (RKLB) — ~$37B market cap | ~$436M 2024 revenue | Electron (80 launches) | Neutron in dev | $1.3B+ SDA contracts SpaceX (private) — ~$350B+ valuation | ~$15B+ revenue | Falcon 9/Heavy + Starship | Starlink | NSSL/NASA contracts Firefly (FLY) — ~$9.8B at IPO (Aug 2025) | $61M 2024 revenue | Alpha (~1,000 kg, limited heritage) | Miranda in dev | ~$1.1B backlog

SpaceX remains the dominant force. Falcon 9 has 300+ successful missions and proven reusability. Starlink generates recurring revenue — the exact model Rocket Lab aspires to replicate.
Starship threatens to commoditise launch through sheer payload capacity. SpaceX being private limits investor access to the space economy thesis.

Firefly IPO'd at $45, opened at $70, briefly hit ~$10B. Blue Ghost lander reached the moon in 2025. Revenue was just $61M in 2024, though it guided $250-300M for 2025. Miranda would compete directly with Neutron.

Relativity Space is developing Terran R (reusable medium-lift, 3D-printed) but remains pre-revenue. Terran 1 was cancelled after a single partial launch.

ROCKET LAB'S MOAT
Vertical integration: 90%+ of rocket components and nearly every satellite subsystem manufactured in-house — solar arrays, reaction wheels, star trackers, radios, avionics, flight software. Eliminates supplier risk and accelerates timelines.

Flight heritage: 80 successful Electron launches. Only SpaceX, ULA, and Rocket Lab have reached orbit more than once among U.S. commercial providers in recent years.

PATENT & TECHNOLOGY PORTFOLIO
— US11408373B1: Jettisonable battery systems for electric turbopumps
— US11022073B1: Rocket engine turbopump with coolant passage (foundational to Rutherford)
 — US10527003B1: 3D-printed thrust chamber, injector, and turbopump
— US9970740B2: Viscous Liquid Monopropellant (invented by Beck)
— US11148830B2: Satellite deployer with composite guide rail

The Rutherford engine was the world's first electric-pump-fed orbital rocket engine — using brushless DC motors and LiPo batteries to drive pumps rather than gas generators or turbine turbopumps. No competitor has replicated this at orbital scale.

Archimedes (Neutron's engine) uses oxidizer-rich staged combustion with extensive additive manufacturing: pump housings, preburner, main chamber, valve housings, and structural elements are all 3D-printed.

Neutron's carbon composite structure is the largest ever built for a flight vehicle. The "Hungry Hippo" fairing — which opens and closes rather than being jettisoned — is a world first.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 3. NEAR-TERM CATALYSTS ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
$816M SDA CONTRACT (December 2025)
Rocket Lab's largest single award: design and manufacture of 18 satellites for SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3, featuring advanced missile warning and tracking.
Combined with the $515M Transport Layer contract, total SDA awards exceed $1.3B. This cements Rocket Lab as a credible prime contractor alongside Lockheed, Northrop, and L3Harris.

NEUTRON SCHEDULE UPDATE — THE CRITICAL OVERHANG
On January 21, 2026, Rocket Lab disclosed a Stage 1 tank rupture during hydrostatic pressure testing. The company characterised it as normal qualification testing (structures pushed intentionally beyond flight limits), confirmed no significant facility damage, and stated the next tank is already in production. A formal Neutron schedule update will be given on the Feb 26 earnings call.

🧠 This is the single most important item on the call. If Beck reaffirms mid-2026 with a confident update on tank replacement and engine qualification — bullish.
If he pushes to H2 2026 or 2027 — expect a sell-off. Neutron's timeline will dictate short-term stock direction.

ESCAPADE MARS MISSION (November 2025)
Rocket Lab-built twin spacecraft launched November 13, 2025 aboard Blue Origin New Glenn.
They'll orbit at Sun-Earth L2, perform trans-Mars injection in November 2026, and arrive at Mars in September 2027.

Demonstrates interplanetary spacecraft capability at a fraction of traditional cost.

RECORD ELECTRON CADENCE
21 launches in 2025 (company record). 80th launch completed January 22, 2026.
49 launches under contract.
Long-term target: ~30 Electron launches per year.

BACKLOG & MULTI-LAUNCH CONTRACTS Q3 2025: 17 dedicated launch contracts signed — strongest quarter ever, predominantly international (Japan, Korea, Europe).

Deals include 7-mission iQPS agreement (SAR Earth-imaging) and a multi-launch Neutron contract with a confidential constellation operator for mid-2026 starts.

M&A GEOST (electro-optical/IR sensors) closed.
Mynaric (laser comms) pending.
$1B+ cash on hand — further acquisitions likely.

ANALYST CONSENSUS
BofA: Buy, PT $120 (raised from $60)
 Goldman Sachs: Neutral, PT $69
MarketBeat consensus: Moderate Buy, PT $72.92

SHARE with others to help my account please 🙏


Summary: Strong long ASST as best entry now on rapid BTC accumulation, 13% APY SATA, and highest amplification ratio; also long BTC back to new ATHs.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

$ASST is one of the best entries right now.

This is one of my favourite stocks for the next few years. Why?

> $SATA ( Strive’s preferred equity instrument) is paying 13% APY and DAILY dividends starting June 16
> $SATA is accumulating $BTC at a rapid pace which the market is underpricing.
> Excellent Management team
> $BTC will be back making new ATH’s soon, $ASST has the highest amplification ratio of any treasury so will have the wildest moves to the upside.

The most under discussed small-cap on FinX.

JUST IN: Strive $ASST grew its #Bitcoin holdings 30.5% in one month, 3x faster than Strategy $MSTR's relative accumulation pace, according to our latest monthly report.

Read the full report: https://t.co/fSUBplbDEn https://t.co/7ExQ2jFb77


Summary: Bullish on NBIS following linked news/development.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

@romanchernin This is awesome! So bullish $NBIS

It was just a question of time:)

https://t.co/Qv2BHRz8XC


Summary: Bullish ONDS: 6 contracts in 30 days, revenue target raised 25%, $1.5B cash — trading at $9 is a disconnect that won't persist into March 18 earnings.

I posted about $ONDS a few hours ago and the catalyst stack keeps growing.

6 major contracts/catalysts in 30 days.
Revenue target raised 25%.
$1.5B cash on hand.

Trading at $9 while the company is executing at this pace.

This is the kind of disconnect that doesn't last. Earnings March 18 will tell the story.


Summary: Expects the sell-off in IREN and CIFR to continue into 2026 amid low volume.

Morning everyone!

I hope we’re all well and looking forward to another day.

I don’t know what to expect today, but I feel the sell-off will continue into 2026.

We need volume back in these big names like $IREN and $CIFR

Have a great day.

~ COFFEE HOUSE


Summary: Holds ONDS as third-largest position and actively looking to add.

@Kaizen_Investor Thank you, appreciated. I own $ONDS as my third largest position - looking to increase at any opportunity 👊

@shabamlo Great write, do you own $ONDS?


Summary: Long Pure Storage as the structural data layer play on AI buildout, citing RPO acceleration, hyperscaler upside, and enterprise deal growth.

Nobody is looking at the hidden data layer bottleneck.

AI data centers are hitting physical space and thermal power limits long before they run out of compute.

The core math the market completely misses: • Every $1 spent on $NVDA chips requires $0.50 to $1.00 in high-performance storage infrastructure. Without it, those multi-million dollar GPUs sit completely idle.

$P (Everpure) owns the structural data pipeline feeding the enterprise AI buildout.

Their latest metrics show exactly where the high-intent capital is moving:

1/ Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) accelerated to $3.67 billion (+40% YoY). That is a single-quarter sequential jump of $728 million.

2/ Crucially, management confirmed that hyperscaler revenue is not included in this RPO number. This is pure, high-margin enterprise and subscription commitment.

3/ Deals over $5 million grew 80% year-over-year, while Fortune 500 penetration hit 64%.

4/ Fusion-their unified control plane that manages entire storage arrays as a single fleet-scaled to 600 corporate customers in its first year.

While retail fights over hardware hype cycles, institutional capital is quietly locking down the underlying data layer.


Summary: Bullish on DRAM ETF and SK Hynix as a structural shift in Korean memory, not a trade; early innings with $2B institutional inflows.

The $DRAM ETF launched 5 weeks ago and pulled $2B in its first month.

That's institutional capital moving into Korean memory before most Western investors even have a route in.

SK Hynix just posted the biggest quarterly revenue in Korean corporate history.

This is not a trade. This is a structural shift. And it's early still.

Read below.


SK Hynix just posted the biggest quarterly revenue in Korean corporate history. This is not a trade. This is a structural shift. And it's early still.


Summary: Bullish OUST: humanoid robots swept Beijing robotic half-marathon using its LiDAR, reinforcing the bull thesis.

$OUST bulls are missing the funniest part of the thesis.

humanoid robots swept 1st, 2nd, 3rd at the Beijing robotic half-marathon - all running on their LiDAR.

what can't $OUST do? https://t.co/99RgHqnbl1


Summary: Bullish TE on Musk's AI solar data center and 100GW solar buildout narrative.

Elon Musk says building AI-powered solar data centers in space is a “no-brainer.”

He also says SpaceX and Tesla are building up to 100 GW per year of solar power.

$TE, $ENPH & $ASTI.
Yes, we are not bullish enough.


Summary: Long ASST as potentially best US small cap over 12-18 months; BTC-accumulation engine via SATA preferred, zero debt, no convertible-note drag vs MSTR. Also long BTC.

New coverage: $ASST (Strive). My subscribers have held this for a while - opening it publicly now.

I believe this could be the best-performing US small cap over the next 12-18 months.

Why?
Perpetual preferred capital via $SATA. No maturity wall, no forced refinancing at the bottom. 13% APY Variable-rate. Minimal volatility.

Last week $SATA raised enough to buy an estimated 2,649 BTC (~$193M) in four trading days - and Monday was a holiday. That's ~16% of the entire treasury added in four sessions.

For $MSTR to match that as a share of its stack, Saylor would have to buy ~135,000 BTC in a week. Over 3x his largest purchase ever.

When BTC falls, that pace means each dollar buys more - BTC-per-share keeps climbing while the price drops. Daily $SATA dividends start June 16 at 13%, smoothing buying across every session.

Since bitcoin:native's local high on May 11, $ASST is down less than it's underlying asset.
The instinct is that a BTC proxy should amplify Bitcoin in both directions. So why isn't $ASST?

The answer is the capital structure and the accumulation engine, not the Bitcoin.
Zero debt. No convertible-note delta hedging forcing structural selling of the common during drawdowns - the mechanism dragging $MSTR.

At ~1.3x mNAV, the market isn't pricing spot NAV. It's pricing forward Bitcoin-yield acceleration - from a structure $MSTR can't replicate cleanly right now.

Note: This is a position as a $BTC-native bull. Volatility as it is a small cap.

$ASST $SATA

---

@Micro2Macr0 @mikealfred


This is a position as a $BTC-native bull


$ONDS is an amazing stock to own in 2026 FYI

Summary: Bullish ONDS for 2026; decisive buy/own verdict.


Summary: Bullish ONDS: defense drone/counter-UAS demand accelerating on Iran conflict, 6x YoY revenue growth, $110M+ 2026 target.

While everyone panics about the broad market, $ONDS just quietly had its best day in weeks.

Up 8.5% yesterday. Here's why:

• Autonomous drone maker with active defense contracts
• Q3 revenue $10.1M — up 6x year over year
• 2026 revenue target: $110M+
• Counter-drone systems deployed to German State Police
• NATO counter-UAS orders accelerating
• Earnings March 18

The Iran conflict is accelerating drone demand globally.

$ONDS is building the platforms that militaries are scrambling to buy right now.


Summary: Bullish on neocloud/data center names: NBIS as top pick, IREN undervalued, CIFR underrated, KEEL potential massive re-rate.

I’m starting to grow increasingly interested in neocloud and data center names again.

$NBIS is king.
$IREN seems undervalued?
$CIFR underrated name.
$KEEL feels like a massive re-rate possible?


$KEEL feels like a massive re-rate possible?


Summary: Holding OUST (diamond hands / HODL stance).

@usppdd $OUST HODL https://t.co/562JAN4CbR

Diamond hands $OUST https://t.co/21VUQTaheG


Summary: Sees FTC's 15% pullback to golden-pocket fib as a buying opportunity; recommends adding.

as predicted: $FTC is taking a cooldown.

15% correction from ATH yesterday.

nice bounce off of golden pocket 1.618 fib shows strength being found.

good place to start adding in imo… https://t.co/0xZLvi5aCA

Filtronic plc (LSE: $FTC): Valuation & Strategic Overview

I've had a lot of questions surrounding valuation at current time. Here's what Gemini thinks:

This overview synthesizes the transformational growth trajectory, current technical positioning, and valuation metrics of https://t.co/7AenrTt22k


Summary: Bullish on ONDS; calls it a real show of strength.

Real show of strength $ONDS https://t.co/jG7RScxzut


What's the easiest 2x in the markets for 2026? For me, it's $IREN or $NBIS.

Summary: Expects IREN and NBIS each to double by 2026; named as the easiest 2x in the market.

What’s the easiest 2x in the markets for 2026?

For me, it’s $IREN or $NBIS.


$ORCL ANNOUNCES NO DELAYS

WE'RE SO BACK!!!!!!

Summary: Bullish ORCL reaction to no-delays announcement; enthusiastic forward endorsement.

HOLY REBOUND HAHAHAHA

$ORCL ANNOUNCES NO DELAYS

WE’RE SO BACK!!!!!! https://t.co/ojF0kIL5t7


Summary: Bullish RKLB into earnings in 3 days; risk/reward at $71 vs $99 ATH seen as compelling despite valuation and execution risks.

$RKLB earnings in 3 days and the setup keeps getting better.

The bull case:
→ Revenue expected ~$177M (beat by 2% last quarter) → EPS surprise potential (69% beat last Q)
→ Neutron timeline update — could accelerate or delay H1 2026 target
→ HASTE hypersonic mission could launch any day
→ $1.3B SDA contracts provide multi-year revenue visibility
→ SpaceX IPO speculation lifting entire sector

The bear case:
→ Neutron tank rupture creates execution risk
→ Stock trades at ~215x forward revenue
→ Cash burn remains elevated
→ Broader market weakness (S&P down 1.1% Friday)

The risk/reward at $71 vs $99 ATH is too compelling to ignore.

My full pre-earnings thesis drops tomorrow. ⚡


Summary: Bullish BTC near-term; endorses bulls' case with a decisive upside call.

$BTC Near term chart update!

Bulls now is your chance! https://t.co/nIOMA2hK3T


Summary: Adding to long position in UiPath.

$PATH I'm buying more. https://t.co/hstLPUr4hR


if you held this and forgot for 5 years it'll prob be one of the best performing assets

Summary: Bullish MSTR on low mNAV; expects it to be one of the best performing assets over a 5-year hold.

@Leo_Traydes The mNAV is ridiculously low aswell rn!!

I feel like if you held this and forgot for 5 years it’ll prob be one of the best performing assets

Again, I’m not buying

But $MSTR at these levels 👀 https://t.co/sCRPW7idP0


Summary: Bullish STRC; calls it the future amid BTC/MSTR weakness.

$MSTR dump! BTC dump!

But... look at $STRC

It's working well! https://t.co/RbOZkeKsGd


Summary: Despite ~20% portfolio drawdown, maintains full conviction long in OUST.

This post is a great and timely reminder on days like today. My port is down almost 20% since last week highs.

Full conviction in $OUST. https://t.co/b8UyZwcndp

I’ve got an unpopular opinion.

Days like today are brutal. $OUST is down 14%.

I’ve had a massive slice taken out of my profits.

But today’s like today are actually THE MOST important for any long-term investor.

They ground you.

They humble you.

They remove all of the https://t.co/54q3oNIWVR


Summary: Long RKLB, PL, ASTS, and especially VELO as SpaceX IPO supply-chain plays; VELO highlighted as undiscovered given SpaceX's IP dependency.

Nobody is mapping the SpaceX IPO supply chain.

Everyone knows the obvious plays. Here's the full picture:
🚀 $RKLB — The only scaled public launch alternative. Neutron coming.
🛰 $PL — Largest Earth imaging fleet. The data layer SpaceX doesn't own.
📡 $ASTS — Direct-to-smartphone from space. Connectivity play.
⚙ $VELO — Prints 5 structural parts inside every Raptor engine. Already on Raptor 4.

$VELO is the one nobody is talking about.

SpaceX paid $8M to license their IP — and included a bankruptcy clause to keep access even if $VELO goes under.

That's not a vendor relationship. That's a dependency.

Full thesis 👇


$PL — Largest Earth imaging fleet. The data layer SpaceX doesn't own.


$ASTS — Direct-to-smartphone from space. Connectivity play.


$VELO is the one nobody is talking about. SpaceX paid $8M to license their IP — and included a bankruptcy clause to keep access even if $VELO goes under. That's not a vendor relationship. That's a dependency.


Summary: Bullish on TE: re-pricing already underway on the weekly chart with catalysts still ahead.

Does your stock move like this?

Let’s appreciate the $TE weekly chart.

Re-pricing in full action.

And the funny thing is…

Nothing has even happened yet🫡 https://t.co/kKStZjXEUW


Summary: Watchlist longs: SNDK on blowout earnings dip, MSTR as leveraged BTC proxy, SWC as small-cap BTC accumulator, INFQ on gov contracts, SK Square on deep NAV discount closing.

names on my watchlist going into this week 👇

1. $SNDK - reported Q3 earnings April 30. revenue $5.95B vs $4.6B estimate. beat by 26%. EPS $23.03 vs $14.11 estimate. beat by 63%. gross margin 78.4%. market dipped it. that's your entry window.
2. $MSTR - bitcoin proxy with leverage. if BTC moves this week, MSTR moves harder. simple.
3. $SWC - UK-listed, low market cap, quietly accumulating bitcoin. the small-cap MSTR that nobody in the US is watching yet.
4. $INFQ - just secured a $2M DARPA contract and a $1M US Navy contract in the same week. $40M revenue guidance for 2026. government contracts keep coming. still early.
5. $402340 SK Square - owns 20% of SK Hynix. trades at a 41% discount to that stake alone. management actively closing it with ₩310bn in shareholder returns this year. western access just opened via $IBKR .

not financial advice. do your own research.


bitcoin proxy with leverage. if BTC moves this week, MSTR moves harder. simple.


just secured a $2M DARPA contract and a $1M US Navy contract in the same week. $40M revenue guidance for 2026. government contracts keep coming. still early.


trades at a 41% discount to that stake alone. management actively closing it with ₩310bn in shareholder returns this year.


Summary: Long INFQ (double revenue, lower multiple, cash-rich, gov't-backed) vs short RGTI (3.7x valuation premium on half the revenue, unproven roadmap).

Two quantum names. Nearly identical sector narrative. A valuation gap the tape isn't explaining well.
$INFQ did $9.5M in revenue last quarter. $RGTI did $4.4M. So Infleqtion earns more than double Rigetti.

Now invert it to what the market pays per forward dollar of sales: ~$90 for $INFQ, ~$330 for $RGTI. Rigetti commands a 3.7x premium on under half the revenue.

A premium that size has to be priced on something. For $RGTI it's the roadmap - 1,000+ qubits by 2027, on a system that already slipped once on coupler issues. You're paying 330x for execution that hasn't happened.

What you own at the lower multiple with $INFQ:
1The only listed neutral-atom platform, sensing revenue deployed today, ~$443M cash against ~$27M liabilities, and a US government that took both a $100M commitment and an equity stake. This week added Russell 3000 inclusion and the Oxford UK expansion.

With Quantinuum's $12.7B IPO about to mark the whole comp, the question is narrow: why does the name with double the revenue and a fraction of the short interest trade at a quarter of the multiple?
$INFQ $RGTI


You're paying 330x for execution that hasn't happened


Summary: Neutral-to-bullish bias on TE; daily uptrend intact, short covering ongoing, squeeze risk if price breaks above $8.88 resistance.

PRE-MARKET: $TE

All you need to know to prepare for Friday. Feel free to ask questions!

1. Hourly/15-Minute Chart
Current Level: ~$8.36 (-0.18% today)

Opening Action: Pre-market opened flat to slightly lower after yesterday's $8.57 high.

Structure: The stock is coiling inside yesterday's daily range ($8.15-$8.91 high). No new trend direction yet; waiting for the 9:30 AM ET bell.

Short-term Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish. This is healthy consolidation.

2. Daily Chart

Yesterday's Candle: Closed at $8.37 after a dramatic reversal from the $7.24 low-a +12.4% intraday swing that validated the V-shaped recovery thesis.

Current Support/Resistance:
Support: $8.15 (yesterday's opening range) and $7.82 (earlier support, now secondary).

Resistance: $8.88–$9.00 (the overhead zone we identified).

Volume: Elevated yesterday on the bounce; pre-market volume is normal (thin) for this hour.

Technical Status: The daily chart remains in a strong uptrend with an intact primary trend line running from the December lows.

3. Key Institutional Signals

Short Shares Available:
Down to 5.5 million from 6.2 million on Wednesday.

This signals short covering is ongoing- a bullish signal. Fewer shares to borrow = higher short-squeeze risk if we break above $8.88.

Institutional Ownership: Holding steady at ~77,000 shares (thousands). Large funds remain committed.


Summary: Long MU: market applies blended multiple to a business split between high-margin HBM (20+ pts above) and spot DRAM; HBM mix rising to 9% by Nov 2026 while still undervalued.

Another thing worth understanding about $MU right now isn't the margin number... it's what's causing it.

HBM and standard DRAM are manufactured on the same fabs, by the same engineers, using overlapping process nodes. But they're commercially completely different products. HBM is sole-sourced into AI accelerators on multi-year agreements. Standard DRAM trades on spot. One has pricing power. One doesn't.

In May 2024, HBM was 1% of Micron's DRAM bit output. By November 2026 it's tracking to 9%. That sounds small. It isn't - because those 9% of bits are carrying margins 20+ points above the rest of the book, and the qualification barriers mean once you're in an AI customer's supply chain, you don't get displaced mid-generation.

The market is still running a blended multiple on a business that's separating into two distinct economic structures. This is why I am covering $DRAM so much, it is still undervalued...


I'm still so bullish. Looking to add if we break the key $7.50 resistance this morning.

Summary: Still bullish on TE after short report drop; looking to add above $7.50 key resistance.

Morning all!

Quite the morning on my $TE adds after the unexpected short report yesterday.

Currently -10%🔴

Looking to add if we break the key $7.50 resistance this morning.

This is the risk/reward working out. I’m still so bullish.

Let’s smash today!


the business remains the dominant robotics leader. No, it's just being proven in real time. No, the fundamentals are only growing stronger. Ignore the noise.

Summary: Bullish OUST: thesis intact, fundamentals strengthening, recent drop is noise; hold/buy the dip.

Here's how $OUST is looking right now.

> Has anything actually changed?

- $OUST completed New Jersey DOT Deployment ahead of 2026 FIFA World Cup yesterday.
- Today they unveiled 500-Foot Advanced Detection with REV8 Native Color Lidar

> Has the business changed?

No, the business remains the dominant robotics leader.

> Has the thesis changed?

No, it's just being proven in real time.

> Have the fundamentals changed?

No, the fundamentals are only growing stronger.

Ignore the noise.

If your highest conviction stock just dropped significantly over the last few trading days, ask yourself one question:

Has anything actually changed?
> Has the business changed?
> Has the thesis changed?
> Have the fundamentals changed?

If the answer is no, then it's still the


Over the next 10 years, Bitcoin will be the best performing asset. It's not too big because it's not like other assets.

Summary: Long BTC as best-performing asset over next decade; held as long-term savings in hardest money/store of value.

Yes, I am very growth and risk oriented due to my age and lack of financial capital.

Why $BTC?

Bitcoin in my eyes is separate to my portfolio, it’s a long-term savings account held in the hardest money and greatest store of value available.

Over the next 10 years, Bitcoin will be the best performing asset. It’s not too big because it’s not like other assets.

So, Bitcoin is what I base my entire portfolio around. My equities are there to increase my bitcoin purchasing power in order to stack more sats.

If you don’t like Bitcoin, I’d always recommend reading the Bitcoin Standard by @saifedean . Fantastic book which changed my outlook.

Hope that helps mate

@shabamlo @Kaizen_Investor @LandoInvests @CaesarCapitalz @YodaStockInvest @moninvestor @Leo_Traydes It doesn't fit your portfolio.

You are very growth and risky oriented.

BTC is too big, not growthy enough.

So here is the question. Why do you own it?


I'm really interested in $CODA as an investment. Feels massively undervalued!

Summary: Long CODA; author finds it massively undervalued.

@aleabitoreddit Great minds think alike! I’m really interested in $CODA as an investment. Feels massively undervalued!

@CoffeeStocksGuy Nice, you beat me to it. Funny how you came to the same conclusion regarding $CODA and $KRKNF

This was more reactionary to the new mine reports 12M ago. Looks like crude oil prices slightly spiked since the news.


There's only one purchase to be made today🧡

Bitcoin.

Summary: Only trade today is buying Bitcoin; decisive bullish call.

There’s only one purchase to be made today🧡

Bitcoin. https://t.co/hsp9b7MSVg


Summary: Bullish on space sector pullbacks, especially RKLB and PL on defense/military spending tailwinds; SpaceX IPO as potential catalyst.

Quite incredible how heavy the Space sector has been hit.

SpaceX IPO seems to be on the horizon - an incredible catalyst for the companies below.

Also - remember the likes of $RKLB $PL have massive defence applications in a time where conflicts and military spending is only rising.

DYOR - but I’m starting to pay some real attention with these pullbacks.

How much is your favorite space stock down from 2026 YTD highs? 🤔

-43.3% $RDW
-39.5% $VOYG
-39.4% $ASTS
-38.8% $RKLB
-29.8% $FLY
-24.9% $LUNR
-21.0% $BKSY
-14.9% $PL
-12.9% $SATS


Summary: Endorses bullish stance on NBIS; self-identifies as a bull.

@Sandeman52 Great insight! Fellow $NBIS bull

$NBIS Remember, this puppy has been beaten down.  There was no bad news to justify it.  I believe it was beaten down because it popped so fast before institutions could get a piece.  They now own a much larger stake than they had 3 months ago.  Mathematically, if you look at https://t.co/hvGWtpbnhN


Summary: All three names have more near-term downside in low-volume environment before finding support; IREN targets $32 retest.

Pre-markets looking red.

As I predicted, $CIFR $IREN and $NBIS all have more room to fall in the low volume environment.

$IREN TA makes $32 still look like a great retest.

$CIFR at key support

$NBIS more room to fall.

All great companies that are significantly undervalued rn IMO.


$IREN TA makes $32 still look like a great retest


Summary: Bullish price targets on BTC ($200k), OUST ($200), AMPG ($100), ASST ($150), ELMT ($75).

My living room when:
$BTC hits $200,000
$OUST hits $200
$AMPG hits $100
$ASST hits $150
$ELMT hits $75 https://t.co/HhVWusafL3


Roth Capital just initiated $OUST at $75. Street consensus sits at $42. That's a 78% premium!

Summary: Long OUST on Roth $75 initiation and NDAA Section 164 locking out dominant rival Hesai from DoD procurement; HSAI faces regulatory-forced market exit.

Roth Capital just initiated $OUST at $75. Street consensus sits at $42. That’s a 78% premium!

June 30, 2026. NDAA Section 164 goes live. Every DoD system running Hesai LiDAR becomes non-compliant overnight. $HSAI holds 37% of the global LiDAR market. They lose US federal procurement access in 32 days.
$OUST already has DoD-certified hardware. 49% revenue growth. 13 consecutive quarters of product revenue growth. $175M cash, zero debt.

Roth is modelling what happens when your dominant competitor gets legislatively removed from the world’s largest defence buyer permanently.

$OUST


$HSAI holds 37% of the global LiDAR market. They lose US federal procurement access in 32 days.


I'm looking to add $ONDS back at these levels. -25% in 5 days is an incredible opportunity after a record earnings and massive forward guidance increase.

Summary: Buying the dip in ONDS after -25% drop; views pullback as opportunity given record earnings and raised guidance.

@jrouldz I’m looking to add $ONDS back at these levels.

-25% in 5 days is an incredible opportunity after a record earnings and massive forward guidance increase.

If you are buying the dip, what sector?

(Too bad I can only give 4 options)


Summary: Continuing to accumulate TE on the dip, lowering cost basis.

$TE continues to fall.

I continue to accumulate with my newfound cash.

All of the haters yesterday have egg on their faces, I made a decision that was right for me and my financial position.

Cost basis down again. https://t.co/7jA5256hPw


Summary: Bullish on Bitcoin and MSTR; framing not buying BTC as a hallmark of bad investors.

One thing? Here’s some more…

1. They don’t buy Bitcoin
2. They follow random influencers on X
3. They don’t buy Bitcoin.

Easy. $BTC $MSTR $ASST

What is 1 thing all of the WORST investors have in common?


Summary: High-conviction long NBIS: hyperscaler deals, $7-9B ARR target by end-2026, 300-400% upside vs 20-40% downside, trades at deep discount to CoreWeave on forward multiples.

THE ULTIMATE NEBIUS ( $NBIS ) INVESTMENT THESIS

Why I believe $NBIS is a highly asymmetric AI infrastructure bet:

1. Multi‑billion, long-term AI deals locked in
2. Massive revenue ramp potential
3. Structural AI compute shortage means every MW of capacity is getting absorbed at attractive economics
4. Valued at a discount to key neocloud peers despite similar business model and growth profile
5. The company projects annualized run-rate revenue of $7-9 billion by end-2026, representing a potential 1,300%+ increase from its Q3 2025 run-rate of $551 million.

1. The Business Model: How Nebius Makes Money
Core Revenue Engine: AI Cloud Infrastructure
Nebius operates as a "neocloud" provider—a specialized GPU cloud company focused exclusively on AI workloads rather than general-purpose computing. The business model centers on three interconnected revenue streams:

Primary Revenue: GPU-as-a-Service Infrastructure

Nebius builds and operates large-scale data centers equipped with cutting-edge NVIDIA GPUs (H100, H200, GB200 NVL72, and GB300 systems), then leases this compute capacity to AI developers, enterprises, and hyperscalers.

Unlike traditional cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) that offer thousands of services, Nebius provides a full-stack AI-native platform optimized specifically for:

1. Model training: Large-scale distributed training for foundation models

2. Inference at scale: Running AI models in production with sub-second latency

3. Fine-tuning and deployment: Complete ML lifecycle management

The company's pricing model combines:

1. On-demand capacity for startups and researchers (pay-as-you-go)

2. Reserved capacity contracts for enterprises (multi-year commitments)

3. Dedicated infrastructure deals with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta

How They Actually Generate Cash

 Nebius monetizes through multi-year, capacity-based contracts. Recent landmark deals illustrate the model:

Microsoft partnership: $17.4 billion contract (potentially $19.4 billion) over five years to provide dedicated GPU infrastructure from the Vineland, New Jersey data center

Meta agreement: $3 billion over five years for AI infrastructure capacity deployed within three months

These hyperscaler deals represent a hybrid business model: Nebius acts as both a cloud service provider and infrastructure supplier, offering dedicated capacity that effectively functions as private cloud extensions for tech giants facing their own capacity constraints.

Secondary Businesses

Beyond core AI infrastructure, Nebius operates three additional segments that contribute to consolidated revenue:

Token Factory: Production inference platform (launched November 2025) for deploying open-source AI models like DeepSeek, Llama, and GPT-OSS with enterprise-grade reliability

1. Toloka AI: Data annotation and preparation services for generative AI development

2. TripleTen: EdTech platform for tech career reskilling

3. Avride: Autonomous vehicle subsidiary developing robotaxis and delivery robots (partnership with Uber announced)

Financial Performance Snapshot
Q3 2025 Results (most recent available):

Revenue: $146.1 million (+355% YoY, +39% QoQ)

Annualized run-rate revenue: $551 million

Adjusted EBITDA margin (core infrastructure): ~19%

Gross margin: 71%

Net loss: $119.6 million (expansion phase)

2025 Full-Year Guidance:

Revenue: $500-550 million

CapEx: ~$5 billion (raised from $2 billion)

ARR target: $900 million - $1.1 billion by year-end

2026 Projections:

Annualized run-rate revenue: $7-9 billion

Contracted power capacity: 2.5 GW

Connected power: 800 MW - 1 GW

The Economics: Why This Model Works
Nebius achieves 20-25% cost advantages over competitors through proprietary infrastructure design. The company designs custom datacenter hardware, optimizes networking, and integrates its own cloud software stack—creating operational efficiencies that pure colocation competitors cannot match.

Revenue scales with GPU deployment: each megawatt of connected power can generate approximately $400-500 million in annual revenue at full utilization, based on industry benchmarks. With 2.5 GW contracted by end-2026, the math supports the aggressive revenue projections.

🧠 Brain Mode - Plain English Translation:

Nebius is essentially a GPU landlord that builds specialized apartment buildings (data centers) for AI models. Instead of renting generic office space like AWS, they construct purpose-built facilities with ultra-fast NVIDIA GPUs connected by high-bandwidth networks (InfiniBand).

Think of it like this: AWS is a shopping mall with everything from clothing stores to restaurants. Nebius is a Formula 1 race track—designed exclusively for high-performance racing. They make money by:

Charging hourly rates for GPU access (like Airbnb for AI compute)

Signing multi-billion dollar long-term leases with tech giants who need guaranteed capacity

Offering managed services that help companies actually use the infrastructure

The unit economics work because demand for AI compute massively exceeds supply. Every time Nebius brings new capacity online, it sells out immediately. The Microsoft and Meta deals essentially pre-sold years of future capacity, giving Nebius the certainty to invest billions in expansion.

2. The Industry & Moat: Competition and Differentiation
Top 3 Direct Competitors
1. CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) — The Market Leader

CoreWeave went public in March 2025 at a $23 billion valuation and trades near $60 billion market cap by mid-2025. Key competitive metrics:

Scale: 250,000+ GPUs generating ~$3.5 billion run-rate revenue vs. Nebius's smaller footprint

Power capacity: ~2.9 GW contracted, 590 MW active (vs. Nebius's 100 MW active in 2025)

Customer concentration: 62% of revenue from Microsoft; $11.9 billion five-year contract with OpenAI

Valuation multiple: Trading at ~10x EV/Revenue vs. Nebius at 3.3x ARR

CoreWeave's advantage is scale and first-mover positioning in the neocloud space. However, it faces significant customer concentration risk with 2-3 hyperscalers comprising the majority of revenue.

2. Lambda Labs — The Developer-Focused Player

Lambda Labs targets AI developers with emphasis on ease-of-use:

Revenue: $600 million+ run-rate in 2025 with 60% YoY growth

Business model: One-click cluster provisioning; 40% of volume is GPU resales for AWS/Microsoft

Differentiation: Maximum simplicity and pay-as-you-go pricing without commitment friction

Scale limitation: Smaller infrastructure footprint; highly dependent on NVIDIA supply chain

Lambda competes on developer experience rather than enterprise scale, positioning it in a different market segment than Nebius.

3. Crusoe Energy — The Vertical Integration Play

Crusoe controls the entire value chain from power generation to data center operation:

Revenue: $535 million in 2025 (+113% YoY), targeting $1.3 billion by 2026

Dual model: Crusoe Cloud (proprietary platform) + Digital Infrastructure (general contractor with $18+ billion in signed contracts)

Strategic advantage: Owns power generation (renewable + stranded gas); 3-5x faster deployment via modular architecture

Stargate involvement: Lead contractor on $500 billion+ megaproject for OpenAI/Oracle

Crusoe's moat is energy-first infrastructure—solving the industry's core constraint by manufacturing its own power rather than competing for grid capacity.

Hyperscaler Overlap: The Real Competition
While CoreWeave, Lambda, and Crusoe are direct competitors, the broader competitive landscape includes AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. These hyperscalers offer:

Vastly larger scale and geographic footprint

Integrated ecosystems with hundreds of services

Established enterprise relationships

Custom AI chips (AWS Trainium, Google TPU)

However, hyperscalers face a critical constraint: demand for AI compute exceeds their internal capacity. This supply-demand imbalance creates the market opportunity for neoclouds. Notably, Microsoft—a Nebius competitor—is simultaneously a $17.4 billion customer, highlighting how neoclouds complement rather than purely compete with hyperscalers.

Nebius's Competitive Positioning
According to competitive analysis, Nebius occupies the "European challenger with flexible contracts" position:

Sweet spot: SMBs and AI startups without long-term commitments; best-in-class pricing

Geographic advantage: Strong European presence (Finland, Iceland, UK) with U.S. expansion underway

Differentiation: Flexible short-term contracts vs. CoreWeave's long-term hyperscaler focus

Market share estimates show neoclouds have captured one-third of the GPU market from hyperscalers, indicating substantial room for multiple players to scale simultaneously.

Does Nebius Have a Technological Moat?
Proprietary Infrastructure Design

Nebius's moat stems from vertical integration rather than patents. The company designs:

Custom server racks and GPU clusters optimized for AI workloads

Proprietary cloud software stack tightly integrated with NVIDIA hardware

In-house networking architecture using NVIDIA Quantum-X800 InfiniBand (800 Gbps)

This full-stack approach creates switching costs: customers who build workflows around Nebius's platform face integration friction when moving to competitors.

Technical Performance Benchmarks

Nebius achieved notable technical milestones:

168,000 GPU-hour MTBF (mean time between failures) for 3,000-GPU cluster—30% improvement over prior benchmarks

First cloud provider in Europe to operate NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 systems in production

First worldwide to run production GB300 NVL72 on 800 Gbps InfiniBand, doubling throughput for distributed workloads

Near-linear scaling in MLPerf Training v5.0 for Llama 3.1 405B model training

Strategic Moat: Blue-Chip Partnerships

Perhaps Nebius's strongest moat is strategic validation through hyperscaler partnerships:

Microsoft and Meta deals totaling $20+ billion cement Nebius as a critical AI infrastructure supplier

NVIDIA invested $700 million, ensuring priority GPU allocation

Partnerships integrate Nebius into Big Tech's core AI strategies, creating embedded switching costs

Scale as a Barrier

Physical infrastructure creates a time-based moat. Building 300 MW data centers with power contracts takes 2-3 years—a barrier rivals cannot quickly overcome. Nebius's 2.5 GW power pipeline by end-2026 represents a substantial head start requiring multi-billion dollar replication costs.

Moat Rating: 7.5/10

While not possessing transformative patents, Nebius combines scale economics, technical integration, hyperscaler validation, and execution speed into a defensible position within the neocloud segment. The company's moat strengthens as capacity scales and customer lock-in deepens.

🧠 Brain Mode - Competitive Reality Check:

Here's the honest take: Nebius doesn't have a magic technological bullet that competitors can't copy. No secret patents. No proprietary AI chip like Google's TPU.

What they do have is execution velocity in a capital-intensive market. Building data centers isn't sexy or patentable—it's about securing land, negotiating power contracts, coordinating NVIDIA supply chains, and deploying infrastructure faster than rivals.

The real moat is temporal: they're 18-24 months ahead in certain geographies (especially Europe) and have locked up multi-billion dollar capacity commitments before competitors could bid. The Microsoft and Meta deals aren't just revenue—they're strategic validation that signals to the market "Nebius can deliver at hyperscale."

Think of it like the shale oil boom. The companies that won weren't those with better drilling technology—everyone used the same equipment. Winners were those who secured land rights early, had capital to scale, and could execute logistics at speed. Nebius is doing that for GPU infrastructure.

The competitive threat isn't CoreWeave or Lambda eating their lunch—it's whether AWS, Azure, and Google eventually solve their internal capacity constraints and pull hyperscaler workloads back in-house. That's the 2027-2028 risk, not 2026.

3. The Catalyst: Recent News and Upcoming Events
Major Partnership Announcements (Past 6 Months)
Microsoft Deal — September 2025

Value: $17.4 billion base contract, potentially $19.4 billion with options

Duration: Five years through 2031

Details: Dedicated GPU infrastructure from Vineland, New Jersey data center; phased deployment throughout 2025-2026

Market reaction: Stock surged 53% in pre-market trading following announcement

Strategic significance: First major long-term partnership with a hyperscaler; validates infrastructure quality at scale

Meta Agreement — November 2025

Value: ~$3 billion over five years

Deployment: Capacity rollout over three months (completed by February 2026)

Constraint: Contract size limited by available capacity—demand exceeded supply

Market reaction: Stock jumped ~5% on announcement day

Significance: Second hyperscaler deal within two months; demonstrates demand breadth beyond Microsoft relationship

Product Launches and Platform Updates
Nebius AI Cloud 3.1 — December 2025

Launched December 17, 2025, featuring:

NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 and HGX B300 systems deployed globally

Blackwell Ultra compute capabilities: Europe's first operational GB300 NVL72 platform

800 Gbps NVIDIA Quantum-X800 InfiniBand: First worldwide production deployment, doubling throughput

Capacity management tools: Real-time Capacity Dashboard and Capacity Blocks for enterprise resource planning

Enterprise security: HIPAA compliance audit logs, enhanced identity management

Nebius Token Factory — November 2025

Production inference platform launched November 5, 2025:

Supported models: 60+ open-source models including DeepSeek, GPT-OSS, Llama, NVIDIA Nemotron, Qwen

Performance: Sub-second latency, 99.9% uptime, autoscaling for hundreds of millions of requests/minute

Early results: Prosus achieved up to 26x cost reductions compared to proprietary models

Strategic positioning: Directly challenges AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud in managed inference

NVIDIA Vera Rubin Partnership — Announced for H2 2026

Nebius will offer NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 platform starting second half of 2026 in U.S. and Europe:

Targets next-generation workloads: agentic AI, advanced reasoning, large mixture-of-experts models

Complements existing GB200 NVL72 and Grace Blackwell Ultra capacity

Reinforces Nebius as early adopter of latest NVIDIA architectures

Capacity Expansion Milestones
New Jersey Data Center — March 2025 Announcement

Capacity: Up to 300 MW design capacity (phased development)

Timeline: First capacity operational summer 2025; tied to Microsoft deal deployment

Location: Vineland, NJ—strategic U.S. market entry

Expandability: Phased approach allows acceleration based on demand

Finland Expansion

Tripled capacity at flagship Finnish data center

First operational deployment of NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 in Europe (December 2025)

Hosts Europe's first GB300 NVL72 system on 800 Gbps InfiniBand

Indianapolis Greenfield Project — November 2025

Seeking approval for new greenfield data center in Indianapolis area

Initial petition withdrawn to advance larger application: up to 1,200 acres (revised from 130 acres)

Scale consistent with hyperscale buildout strategy

Zoning approval expected as structural next step for capacity expansion

Capacity Targets for 2026

Contracted power: 2.5 GW by end-2026 (up from 1 GW previous guidance)

Connected power: 800 MW - 1 GW operational by end-2026

Current status: Company reports selling out capacity immediately upon deployment

Regulatory and Operational Updates
CapEx Guidance Increase — Q3 2025 Earnings

Raised from: ~$2 billion to ~$5 billion for 2025

Driver: Accelerating capacity expansion to meet hyperscaler demand

Financing strategy: Combination of corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity

Implications: Signals aggressive growth posture but raises dilution concerns

Q4 2025 Earnings — Scheduled February 12, 2026

Expected release: Thursday, February 12, 2026, before market open

Conference call to follow

Key metrics to watch: ARR progression toward $1.1 billion target; capacity deployment updates; 2026 guidance refinement

Near-Term Catalysts (Next 6-12 Months)
Q4 2025 earnings (February 12, 2026): Expected to show significant ARR acceleration as Q4 capacity deployments (UK, Israel, Finland expansion, NJ Phase 1) come online

GB300 and Blackwell Ultra ramp: Expanded availability of next-gen NVIDIA platforms through 2026 drives performance differentiation

Additional hyperscaler deals: Management indicated "additional complex agreements are likely on the horizon"

Indianapolis data center approval: Zoning approval would unlock path to additional hundreds of megawatts of U.S. capacity

2026 guidance update: Expected refinement of $7-9 billion ARR target with clearer capacity timelines

Market Sentiment and Recent News Flow
Recent coverage indicates capacity bottlenecks as primary constraint:

"Demand isn't the problem—powered shells, interconnects, and energization timing are"

Company selling out every capacity increment as it comes online

Supply-demand imbalance creates pricing power and validates aggressive expansion

🧠 Brain Mode - What the Catalysts Actually Mean:

The Microsoft and Meta deals are game-changers because they transform Nebius from a speculative neocloud into a strategically validated infrastructure partner. These aren't just revenue contracts—they're capacity commitments that:

De-risk execution: Microsoft and Meta only sign billion-dollar deals after extensive technical due diligence. Their commitment signals Nebius can deliver.

Enable financing: The contracts provide predictable cash flows that support debt financing for expansion. Banks will lend against Microsoft's creditworthiness.

Lock up GPU supply: NVIDIA allocates chips to customers with secured demand. These deals ensure Nebius gets priority access to Blackwell and Rubin generations.

The product launches (AI Cloud 3.1, Token Factory) matter because they expand TAM beyond raw infrastructure. Token Factory especially is strategic—it's targeting the $5+ billion managed inference market where companies like OpenAI charge 10-50x markup over raw compute costs. If Nebius captures even 5% of that with open models, it's a meaningful revenue layer.

The real catalyst most investors miss: 2026 is when capacity constraints ease. Right now, Nebius is revenue-constrained by supply. Once they hit 800 MW - 1 GW connected in late 2026, revenue can inflect dramatically. That's when the $7-9 billion ARR guidance becomes achievable rather than aspirational.

The Indianapolis project is interesting—1,200 acres suggests 500-800 MW potential capacity. If approved, that's a 2027-2028 revenue driver worth $2-4 billion annually.

4. The Asymmetry Check: Investment Risk-Reward Profile
Valuation Analysis: Current vs. Forward Metrics
Current Valuation (as of February 9, 2026)

Stock price: $83.75

Market cap: $21.68 billion

Enterprise value: $21.45 billion

Trailing P/S ratio: 54.96x (based on TTM revenue of $344.4 million)

Forward P/S ratio: 12.02x (using 2025 guidance of $500-550 million)

Trailing P/E ratio: 91.55x (not meaningful due to expansion losses)

Forward Valuation Compression

Applying 2026 revenue projections dramatically alters the valuation picture:

2026E revenue: $3.45 billion (conservative) to $9 billion (bull case)

Forward P/S at $3.45B: 6.3x

Forward P/S at $7-9B: 2.4x - 3.1x

2027E revenue consensus: ~$9 billion

Forward P/S at $9B: 2.4x

This represents a valuation compression thesis: as denominator (revenue) grows 10-20x over 24 months, the multiple collapses even if stock price appreciates.

Comparative Valuation: Nebius vs. CoreWeave
CoreWeave Trading Multiple (Mid-2025)

EV/Revenue: ~10x

Market cap: ~$45-60 billion (varies by source)

Scale advantage: 5.9x larger on active megawatts

Nebius Trading Multiple

EV/ARR: 3.3x (based on $551 million September 2025 ARR)

Valuation gap: Trading at 1/3 the multiple of CoreWeave despite comparable growth rates

Relative Valuation Analysis

If Nebius traded at CoreWeave's 10x multiple:

On current $551M ARR: $5.51 billion valuation vs. $21.68B actual → Nebius expensive

On 2026 $7B ARR target: $70 billion valuation vs. $21.68B actual → Nebius cheap

This highlights the execution dependency: valuation arbitrage only materializes if Nebius delivers on capacity ramp.

Analyst Price Targets and Consensus
Consensus Rating: Buy (based on 6-10 analysts)

Price Target Range:

Low: $70-120

Average: $146.67 - $152

Median: $150

High: $211 (Northland Capital Markets)

Implied Upside:

From $83.75 to average target ($150): +79.1%

From $83.75 to high target ($211): +152.0%

Recent Analyst Actions:

Morgan Stanley (January 15, 2026): Initiated Equal Weight, $126 PT (+50% upside)

Northland Capital Markets (November 12, 2025): Buy rating, $211 PT

DA Davidson (November 12, 2025): Strong Buy, $150 PT

Goldman Sachs (September 17, 2025): $120 PT

Asymmetric Bet Framework: Upside vs. Downside
Bull Case: 300-400% Upside Potential

Thesis: If Nebius executes on capacity expansion and achieves $7-9 billion ARR by end-2026:

Revenue delivery: $7-9B ARR materializes through Microsoft/Meta deals + general market demand

Margin expansion: Adjusted EBITDA margins expand from 19% to 25-30% as scale economics kick in

Multiple expansion: Market re-rates to 8-10x revenue (vs. current 3.3x ARR) as execution de-risks

Valuation outcome: $56-90 billion market cap range

Price targets under bull case:

Base case (7x on $7B): $245 per share (+193% from $83.75)

Optimistic case (10x on $9B): $360 per share (+330% from $83.75)

Supporting factors:

Demand exceeds supply in every geography

Hyperscaler contracts provide revenue visibility

NVIDIA partnership ensures GPU allocation

2.5 GW pipeline supports $7-9B ARR math

Operating leverage as capacity scales

Bear Case: 20-40% Downside Risk

Thesis: Execution failures, AI spending slowdown, or competitive pressures derail growth:

Capacity delays: Infrastructure deployment takes longer than expected; 2026 targets missed

Margin compression: Price competition or cost overruns squeeze profitability

Financing stress: $5B CapEx requires successful capital raises; dilution or debt concerns

Demand slowdown: Hyperscalers reduce AI spending in 2026-2027 slowdown

Valuation compression: Market re-rates to 5x on missed revenue targets

Price targets under bear case:

Moderate bear (5x on $2B missed revenue): $50 per share (-40% from $83.75)

Severe bear (AI bubble bursts): $20-30 per share (-65% to -75%)

Supporting concerns:

Execution risk: Scaling from $551M to $7-9B ARR in 18 months is unprecedented

Cash burn: $100M+ quarterly losses; $5B CapEx drains liquidity

Dilution: $2.5B ATM equity program threatens shareholder value

Customer concentration: Microsoft and Meta represent majority of future revenue

AI CapEx slowdown: Goldman Sachs projects 2026 AI spending growth decelerates from 54% to 26%

Downside Protection: The Asset Base
Cash Position

Cash and equivalents: ~$4.79 billion (varies by source; $2.288B reported Q3 2025)

Debt: Minimal corporate debt; Debt/Equity ratio 0.95

Net cash: Provides cushion for CapEx without immediate dilution

Investment Portfolio as Embedded Option

Nebius owns stakes in several high-value assets:

1. ClickHouse: Analytics database company

2. Toloka AI: Data labeling platform

3. Avride: Autonomous vehicle subsidiary (Uber partnership)

4. TripleTen: EdTech business

Analysts estimate these investments account for meaningful share of market value, providing downside protection if core business stumbles. One analysis suggests this portfolio reduces effective downside to ~15% vs. 400% upside potential.


Summary: Long SATS: trades at discount to its ~$35B SpaceX stake alone, with operating business thrown in at ~$4B implied.

The SpaceX S-1 is expected today.
Buried in this morning's Financial Times: a listed stock that effectively owns a 2% stake in SpaceX - and it's trading at a discount to that stake alone 👇

EchoStar ( $SATS ) owns DISH Network, Boost Mobile, and HughesNet. Historically buried in debt with a bleeding pay-TV subscriber base. But they've found a way out.

Their hidden superpower: highly coveted terrestrial spectrum licenses that SpaceX desperately needed to power Starlink's direct-to-cell network.

Instead of selling for cash, he traded them for $11B in pre-IPO SpaceX equity - ~52 million shares post the 5-for-1 split, entered at $212 pre-split.

The catch most people are missing: EchoStar holds a right to equity, not physical shares yet. Phase 1 closes H1 2026. The FCC cleared it today.

The math at $1.75T IPO: SpaceX stake = ~$35B. $SATS market cap = ~$39B. Operating business implied at ~$4B on $1.59B EBITDA.

Charlie Ergen: "SpaceX is the best company I've ever worked with in 45 years."

$SATS is clearly undervalued.

$SATS solana:PreANxuXjsy2pvisWWMNB6YaJNzr7681wJJr2rHsfTh


A deeper look into the great deal signed by the $TE team. Hint… it's bullish🔥

Summary: Author endorses $TE's 900MW solar supply deal as bullish for the stock.

A deeper look into the great deal signed by the $TE team.

Hint… it’s bullish🔥

Let me know what you guys think.

IN-DEPTH OVERVIEW OF THE $TE DEAL WITH TREATY OAK

THREAD BELOW 🧵

T1 Energy Inc. (NYSE: $TE) has secured a three-year strategic supply agreement with Treaty Oak Clean Energy, LLC, committing to deliver at least 900MW of high-performance solar modules incorporating domestic https://t.co/L0WXWos9jL


Summary: Long SK Square as a deep-discount way to own SK Hynix's dominant HBM franchise; market cap 39% below value of its 20.5% stake.

SK Square KOSPI 402340; holding company with SK Hynix stake

SK Hynix just posted the biggest quarterly revenue in Korean corporate history. ₩52.6 trillion. 72% operating margin.

SK Square owns 20.5% of it.

SK Square's entire market cap is still 39% below the value of that stake alone.

you can buy the world's dominant HBM supplier at almost half price. and most Western investors don't even know the ticker exists.

full breakdown below 👇


SK Hynix just posted the biggest quarterly revenue in Korean corporate history. ₩52.6 trillion. 72% operating margin.

SK Hynix KOSPI 000660; dominant HBM/DRAM supplier


Summary: Bullish on three under-the-radar Asian supply-chain names: KC Tech (HBM CMP), Hyundai Mobis (robotics actuators), and Nextronics (AI server connectors), all seen as mispriced relative to their AI/robotics exposure.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Here's some cool Asian companies I've been reading up on recently:

$281820 KC Tech - Korea's sole domestic developer and mass producer of CMP equipment. The polishing process is non-negotiable in HBM fabrication. Supplies Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Currently developing next-gen tooling for advanced packaging nodes. $382M market cap on $266M revenue.

$012330 Hyundai Mobis - contracted to supply actuators for Boston Dynamics Atlas. Announced CES 2026. 30,000-unit annual production capacity targeted by 2028. Automotive-scale manufacturing discipline entering robotics at tier-1.

$8147 Nextronics - connectors and backplanes in the AI server infrastructure stack. Every hyperscaler rack needs them. Still priced as an industrial components business.

The repricing hasn't reached the supply chain yet.
$IBKR 🇰🇷


contracted to supply actuators for Boston Dynamics Atlas. Announced CES 2026. 30,000-unit annual production capacity targeted by 2028. Automotive-scale manufacturing discipline entering robotics at tier-1.


connectors and backplanes in the AI server infrastructure stack. Every hyperscaler rack needs them. Still priced as an industrial components business. The repricing hasn't reached the supply chain yet.


Summary: Bullish FTC: SpaceX monopoly on E-band, warrant structure signals deep commitment, V-band pivot opens massive new market, US institutional discovery pending Nasdaq listing.

Filtronic plc on LSE AIM; Starlink RF/GaN supplier context confirms

Jason named $FTC first.
I posted on it at 260p. It's at 458p today. 924k views.

Honestly, this was one of the easier calls to make. SpaceX had booked every single production line Filtronic owns. Amazon Kuiper can't get access. That's not a supplier relationship, that's a monopoly on the only technology that can push high power through E-band without the chips melting.

People are still sleeping on the V-band pivot though. E-band serves roughly 5,000 ground stations globally. V-band goes into tens of millions of consumer terminals. SpaceX knows this, which is why they're funding the transition directly.

Here's the part most people miss. SpaceX holds warrants to acquire up to 15% of Filtronic. The original tranche vested at 33p. The expanded tranche at 92.8p. The stock is at 458p. SpaceX is sitting on an enormous unrealised gain and they are not walking away from a company they're financially embedded in.

That warrant structure isn't just alignment. It's SpaceX funding Filtronic's entire product roadmap into V-band, Ka-band, and Q-band in exchange for equity. They're not a customer. They're a strategic partner with skin in the game.

$FTC has zero US institutional presence. AIM-listed, completely off the radar for American capital.

That changes when $1.75T lands on Nasdaq in June. Imagine what happens when US analysts start mapping the SpaceX supply chain and find a hardware monopoly on the London Stock Exchange.
$FTC

---

Here is the original report from last month.

https://t.co/fpG3i8Hlqz


Filtronic makes the E-band GaN amplifiers inside Starlink's RF infrastructure. $62.5M contract signed August 2025. $115M+ cumulative. SpaceX holds warrants over 15% of Filtronic's share capital. 2,300 aircraft is a direct demand multiplier for that stack.

Summary: Long Filtronic: sole E-band GaN supplier to Starlink with $115M+ in contracts, SpaceX warrant structure structurally incentivises continued orders, SpaceX roadshow in 11 days.

Filtronic plc LSE AIM; GaN/E-band Starlink supplier

Starlink just signed 3 of the 4 largest US airlines. 2,300+ commercial aircraft. $FTC Filtronic makes the E-band GaN amplifiers inside Starlink's RF infrastructure.

$62.5M contract signed August 2025. $115M+ cumulative.

SpaceX holds warrants over 15% of Filtronic's share capital. Exercise prices at 33p and 92.8p. Stock trades at 410p.

Those warrants vest on supply volumes. SpaceX is structurally incentivised to keep placing orders - they're not just a customer. They're a partial owner of their key RF supplier and are sitting on a 1,100% return.

SpaceX could exercise these warrants tomorrow and hold $160 million in shares.

2,300 aircraft is a direct demand multiplier for that stack. SpaceX roadshow hits London in 11 days.
$FTC $SPCX

---

https://t.co/fpG3i8Hlqz


Summary: Long CML.L: compound semiconductor play on LEO satellite/defense, $30M GNSS contract, GaN/GaAs capability, net cash on cheap EV, priced as if market hasn't caught up.

$CML.L is up again today, and most people still haven’t heard of it. That’s worth understanding.

CML Microsystems is an AIM-listed fabless semiconductor company based in Essex. They design mixed-signal RF and microwave chips for critical communications infrastructure - satellite, 5G, private wireless networks, aerospace, and defense. Not consumer electronics. Not a commoditised memory play. The customers are industrial, the applications are mission-critical, and the end markets are structurally growing.

The pivot that changed the investment case happened in October 2023. CML acquired Microwave Technology Inc (MwT), a Silicon Valley compound semiconductor company founded in 1982, for $13.2 million. MwT designs GaAs and GaN-based MMIC amplifiers - the same material stack used in satellite terminals, phased array radar, and mmWave backhaul infrastructure. Before the acquisition, CML was a mixed-signal and RF chip house serving the legacy comms market. After it, they became a compound semiconductor group with direct exposure to the two fastest-growing segments in their industry: LEO satellite infrastructure and high-frequency defense electronics.

The market hasn’t priced this in. And here’s why.

In July 2025, CML announced a 12-year design and supply contract worth over $30 million with a leading industrial GNSS equipment manufacturer. That contract - worth roughly $2.5 million per year in contracted revenue - front-loaded non-recurring engineering (NRE) work in its early phases. NRE is design services revenue: lower margin than product supply, but it’s what you do before you lock in the long-term supply relationship. The market saw margin headwinds in FY26 and read it as operational weakness. The reality is that CML was building the foundation of a decade-long, high-margin supply contract. The NRE phase costs you margin today to earn product revenue tomorrow.

The FY26 profit before tax will look better than the operating picture warrants, because it includes a land disposal gain. That’s not the story. The story is that H2 revenue momentum is inflecting, the GNSS contract NRE work is largely behind them, and the June 17 preliminary results will be the first clean look at whether FY27 guidance reflects what H2 momentum suggests.

The case for owning this: £11m of net cash on a £37m enterprise value. A Silicon Valley GaN/GaAs capability acquired for $13.2m. A 12-year satellite GNSS supply contract. Exposure to mmWave defense electronics through MwT. And a UK AIM listing that guarantees institutional blindness and zero analyst coverage for the foreseeable future.

The case against: Revenue declined in FY26. Both operating halves were loss-making. The operating leverage that makes the bull case work requires sustained revenue recovery - and customer timing in industrial satellite markets is notoriously lumpy. Position sizing on an AIM small-cap with thin liquidity is not optional risk management, it’s mandatory.

Prelim results: 17 June 2026. Four weeks away.

$CML $CML.L


I've parked my cash in $STRC by $MSTR - earning yield with indirect Bitcoin exposure while equities bleed. 11.5% Yield - that's more than a lot of people make in a year. If I held $STRC all year, I am confident I'll outperform the S&P 500 this year.

Summary: Long STRC for 11.5% yield + indirect BTC exposure; DCA'ing BTC weekly; avoiding equities until macro clears.

S&P down 7% in a month. Iran war. Oil at $108. Stagflation fears.

What’s my strategy?

I’ve parked my cash in $STRC by $MSTR - earning yield with indirect Bitcoin exposure while equities bleed.

11.5% Yield - that’s more than a lot of people make in a year. If I held $STRC all year, I am confident I’ll outperform the S&P 500 this year.

Also, DCA’ing BTC weekly regardless, inspired by @BitcoinTeacher_ 🍊

Not touching stocks until the macro clears

Cash isn’t lazy if it’s working.

Portfolio update coming today.

👇 What’s your hold?


Summary: Long ELMT: founder-operator holds 36%, thin float, 20.7% revenue growth, record backlog, and key supplier role in defense/semis/space/nuclear.

I've just discovered that the $ELMT founder holds 36% of the company.

On June 3, $ELMT released a 13G/A revealing that CEO Peter Anania and his entities still hold 10,803,122 of 29,979,863 shares.

$ELMT makes refractory metals - tungsten, molybdenum, niobium, tantalum - and the RF/microwave systems that go into defense and semiconductors. Q1 revenue grew 20.7% to $56M on a record $113.3M backlog.

In April it priced just 8.6M shares at $14. Anania took 29% of the company to market. The rest was held by him and added by institutions.

Having this founder stake is crucial. That stake is $360M of founder-aligned stock marked to the share price every single day. With more than a third of the company's equity, the CEO's personal wealth rises and falls directly with the share price. They are highly incentivized to grow the business rather than just collect a salary.

A 36% lock also means the tradable float is far smaller than the 30M share count implies. That's the mechanical reason ELMT swings 18% on a single backlog print. Thin float cuts both ways.

So, you're not just buying refractory-metal exposure into a rising defense-capex cycle. You're buying it next to an owner-operator who floated the smallest slice he could and bet the rest on himself.

When a founder-led company bets on itself, I will always take interest.

When it acts as a key supplier for Defence, Semiconductors, Space, Rare earths,Nuclear fusion, etc, I buy.

$ELMT


$OUST is the ultimate 4-in-1 AI Trade in my opinion. Sub-3bn marketcap yet the key to the future of physical AI and robotics.

Summary: Long OUST: sub-$3B market cap play on physical AI and robotics convergence; author calls it the ultimate 4-in-1 AI trade.

$OUST - Ouster sits at the convergence of four important themes:

- Robotics
- Smart Infrastructure
- Industrial Automation
- Physical AI

Revenue:
$19M (2020)
$220M (2026E)
$540M (2029E)

Revenue CAGR: 45%

Stage 2 uptrend with strong accumulation. https://t.co/92IjydRSrr


Brought more $ONDS today. It's now in my top 3 positions.

Summary: Added to ONDS position; now a top-3 holding.

Brought more $ONDS today. It’s now in my top 3 positions.

Research report is in the works.

$ONDS army🔥


Summary: Long BTC; expects it to overtake gold market cap within 10 years on superior monetary properties and still-early adoption.

Love this counter mate, it’s great for us to discuss and challenge one another.

To begin, Gold is fantastic and I am not a hater, I just believe Bitcoin is Gold for a digital age.

To your first point:

Bitcoin is better money because:

The 7 key features of money are durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity (fungibility), acceptability, scarcity (limited supply), and verifiability (hard to counterfeit).

Gold does most of these fantastically, such as durability. A Gold bar 5000 years ago is the same now.

However, there is a dividing line where Bitcoin>Gold:

1. Divisibility

Gold is physically divisible (e.g., grams, milligrams), but very fine divisions are impractical for everyday transactions.

Bitcoin is highly divisible: each bitcoin can be split into 100 million satoshis (sats), making microtransactions easy.

2. Portability

Gold is portable in small amounts (coins, bars), but large quantities are heavy and risky to move; transporting tonnes of gold requires security and logistics.

Bitcoin is highly portable: any amount can be moved instantly across borders via the internet, stored on a phone, USB, or even memorised as a seed phrase.

Gold can also be counterfeited and requires expertise to identify. PoW ensures Bitcoin is safe from this.

3. Gold has a naturally limited supply: mining is costly and slow, and total above-ground gold grows only a small percentage each year. But in the event of a big find, prices will react aggressively. Also, future of asteroid mining could challenge Gold. Whereas, Bitcoin has a strictly limited supply: the protocol caps it at 21 million coins, with new issuance controlled by a predictable, halving schedule.

Second point:

Demand for gold is greater because the market does not fully understand the Bitcoin proposition yet. It’s just early innings. Also, as an asset still in its infancy, Bitcoin’s volatility still creates fear. Bitcoin will overtake Gold market cap in the next 10 years.

In terms of my knowledge of Gold, I’m a massive history geek so I know quite a good amount about its history as a currency. I know a lot about the Macro aspect. Hence, i’ll repeat that I like Gold, I just prefer Bitcoin long run. Happy for you to give me some more sources I can read on Gold!

Gold and Bitcoin are both going to win. We both see the same problem. Enjoyed talking about this mate!

@shabamlo @Kaizen_Investor @LandoInvests @CaesarCapitalz @YodaStockInvest @moninvestor @Leo_Traydes My main knowledge is money and macro.

Bitcoin doesn't do better than gold in either of them.

The demand for gold is bigger and the things built around gold are bigger.

In my honest opinion the love for Bitcoin comes from an under education around gold.

How much do you know


I do think we'll get a deeper correction on these names this year

Summary: Expects deeper correction in IREN and CIFR this year on industry delays, bottlenecks, or contract/liquidity breakdowns.

I’m not invested in $IREN or $CIFR

Both impressive. But I do think we’ll get a deeper correction on these names this year:

1. One delay will pull the entire industry down
2. That delay is inevitable due to bottlenecks
3. Or a contract breaks down due to liquidity issues etc

Just brain dumping here..

you're probably underestimating how crazy things are https://t.co/aHAbJ78dmI


Summary: Bullish on TE despite CAO termination concerns; calls current prices a buying opportunity.

The market seems to agree with my concerns.

Anonymous X mobs need to chill out.

These are great prices to buy $TE at. https://t.co/dN3CFxPZjq

I'm one of the biggest $TE bulls on here.

But I'm not going to pretend the sudden termination of their Chief Accounting Officer doesn't raise questions.

Denise Cruz was terminated on Feb 5. Same day, they promoted the SEC reporting lead to replace her.

No transition period.


Summary: Maps entire drone economy supply chain naming 7 beneficiary plays across counter-drone, manufacturers, batteries, components, ISR, and munitions in a $400B predicted market.

I spent hours mapping the entire drone economy.

7 layers. 8 companies. $400 billion predicted market.

Iran just proved drones are THE weapon of the decade - 541 attack drones were used in a single barrage. A $500 FPV drone can destroy an $82.5M F-35.

Here's every layer of the supply chain and the companies building it:
🛡 Counter-Drone → $ONDS, $DRSHF
✈ Drone Manufacturers → $AVAV, $RCAT
🔋 Batteries → $AMPX
⚙ Components → $UMAC
🛰 ISR & Surveillance → $PL
💣 Loitering Munitions → $AVAV
🧠 Autonomy Software → Shield AI

Deep research report on the Drone Economy coming in a few hours 👇


Summary: Five oversold longs: MU (HBM demand intact), ONDS (record revenue), NVDA (AI spend unbroken), AMZN (AWS/cheap valuation), RKLB (backlog/deep discount).

Top 5 most oversold stocks on my watchlist right now:

1. $MU - Down 30% in 8 days. Google TurboQuant only compresses inference, not training. HBM demand is untouched. Market is panicking over a headline.
2. $ONDS - Down 47% from highs. Just posted record Q4 revenue ($30.1M). Raised 2026 guidance to $375M.
3. $NVDA - Down 21% from ATH. Every AI hyperscaler is still spending hundreds of billions. This is the gift. P/E lowest since 2019.
4. $AMZN - Down 23% from highs. AWS is printing money. $2T company at a P/S of 3. Cheapest it's been relative to fundamentals in years.
5. $RKLB - Down 33% from ATH. Neutron on track. $190M HASTE contract. $1.1B backlog. Space infrastructure at a deep discount.

Blood in the streets. These are the entries people will wish they had just a few months ago.


Down 47% from highs. Just posted record Q4 revenue ($30.1M). Raised 2026 guidance to $375M.


Down 21% from ATH. Every AI hyperscaler is still spending hundreds of billions. This is the gift. P/E lowest since 2019.


AWS is printing money. $2T company at a P/S of 3. Cheapest it's been relative to fundamentals in years.


Down 33% from ATH. Neutron on track. $190M HASTE contract. $1.1B backlog. Space infrastructure at a deep discount.


Summary: Author endorses BofA Buy/PT $80 on OKLO; sees institutional coverage + META binding deal as beginning of risk repricing for the SMR build-own-operate model.

I covered $OKLO in my nuclear sector deep dive last week.

The thesis: a build-own-operate model selling electricity directly to data centers via long-term contracts - behind the meter, no grid upgrades required. The cleanest hyperscaler story in the SMR space.

I also flagged it as highly speculative. Pre-revenue. Significant insider selling. Today, BofA initiates with a Buy rating and an $80 price target.

Their conviction anchor is that a 1.2 GWe binding power agreement with $META and a pipeline exceeding 14 GWe in non-binding customer letters. The same build-own-operate model I identified is what the analyst specifically highlights as the competitive differentiator.

The speculative risks haven't disappeared. But institutional coverage arriving alongside a binding hyperscaler agreement is the first step in that risk being repriced.
$OKLO

BofA Initiates Coverage on $OKLO with Buy Rating, PT $80

Analyst comments: "Oklo’s differentiated, vertically integrated “build-own-operate” model positions it as a potential early leader in small modular reactors (SMRs), uniquely capturing full project economics by owning its


Summary: All four space-defence names (RKLB, PL, BKSY, ONDS) have more upside ahead; the move hasn't started properly yet.

2 weeks ago, I pointed out how space is key to the next era of defence technology:

The market agrees with me today:

$RKLB - Up 7% 🟢
$PL - Up 6%🟢
$BKSY - Up 2%🟢
$ONDS - Up 2%🟢

The move hasn't even started properly yet...

Bookmark for later 📒


Summary: Bearish TE: $350M funding gap likely filled with toxic convertibles; warns against buying the dip.

$TE bulls are pointing at $755M revenue guidance... I'm pointing at the $350M hole that needs filling.

Analysis suggests a 50% probability it gets plugged with toxic convertibles.

Read the article before you buy the dip. 🧵


Summary: Maps the underwater defense economy; KRKNF is the top pick as a 3-layer platform, with HII, GD, NOC, LHX as additional plays and ONDS cited as a comparable multi-layer compounder.

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'

The underwater defense economy — mapped:

💣 Mine Countermeasures → $KRKNF, $HII
🔊 Sonar & Imaging → $KRKNF (SAS), $CODA (3D/4D/5D/6D)
🔋 Subsea Batteries → $KRKNF (SeaPower — 200% density advantage, no competition)
🤖 Autonomous UUVs → $HII (REMUS/Lionfish), $GD (Knifefish)
📡 Navigation & Comms → $KRKNF (Covelya/Sonardyne — $615M acquisition)
🛡 Anti-Sub Warfare → $HII, $GD, $NOC, $LHX

$KRKNF spans 3 of 6 layers after the Covelya deal.  That's the same pattern as $ONDS in the drone economy - multi-layer platforms compound.

Count the layers per company. The picture tells the story.


Autonomous UUVs → $HII (REMUS/Lionfish), $GD (Knifefish)


Anti-Sub Warfare → $HII, $GD, $NOC, $LHX


That's the same pattern as $ONDS in the drone economy - multi-layer platforms compound


$NVDA guides $91B next quarter - without a single dollar from China. The AI infrastructure buildout isn't slowing.

Summary: Bullish NVDA on $91B guide ex-China; names OUST as the sensor-layer play on the ongoing AI infrastructure buildout.

$NVDA guides $91B next quarter - without a single dollar from China.

The AI infrastructure buildout isn’t slowing. Every autonomous system running this stack needs a sensor layer.

That’s $OUST.

$OUST $NVDA https://t.co/y2jsd8MHeJ

$NVDA - *NVIDIA 1Q REV. $81.62B, EST. $79.19B
*NVIDIA 1Q ADJ EPS $1.87
*NVIDIA SEES 2Q REV. $89.18B TO $92.82B, EST. $87.36B


Every autonomous system running this stack needs a sensor layer. That's $OUST.


It's the most bullish small-cap setup I've seen in months. Analyst target: $19 (current ~$9)

Summary: Long ONDS on $959M premium raise, NATO drone acquisition, defense contracts, Blue List approval; analyst target $19 vs ~$9 current.

Yesterday I posted my full $ONDS investment thesis.

The response was incredible - but I realize most people only saw the headline.

So here's the 60-second version:

$ONDS just raised $959M at a 17.5% PREMIUM to market. That's not dilution - that's institutional demand.

In the last 30 days they've:

→ Acquired Rotron Aerospace (UK/NATO drone platforms)
→ Won an Asia-Pacific defense contract
→ Got Blue List approved for federal procurement
→ Launched at Singapore Airshow 2026

Market cap: ~$3.8B. Analyst target: $19 (current ~$9).

The full thesis is on my profile. It's the most bullish small-cap setup I've seen in months.

$ONDS


Summary: Highest-conviction long ONDS: Q4 revenue beat, $1.5B cash, Mistral merger adds direct DoD prime contractor access, 2026 guidance $170-180M before acquisition uplift.

$ONDS just dropped TWO press releases in a single day.  Let that sink in.
1⃣ Preliminary Q4 revenue: $29.1-$30.1M
→ Beat guidance of $27-29M
→ 3x sequential from Q3's $10.1M
→ Full year 2025: $49.7-50.7M — also beat
→ Reiterating $170-180M for 2026
→ Cash: over $1.5 BILLION

2⃣ Merger agreement with Mistral Inc.
→ U.S. defense prime contractor
→ Prime on over $1B of IDIQ & DOD contracts
→ Direct access to U.S. Army + USSOCOM procurement
→ U.S.-based manufacturing infrastructure
→ Covers drones, weapon systems, UAS, law enforcement

Read that Mistral deal again. This isn't a tech acquisition. This is $ONDS buying a seat at the table as a DIRECT prime contractor to the Department of Defense.

And the line everyone will miss from this morning's release:  2026 revenue guidance of $170-180M is "before the impact of any new acquisitions."  Mistral's revenue is additive.

I mapped ONDS as a 7-layer autonomous defense platform last week. Today they added an 8th layer: direct DoD prime contractor access.

I hold $ONDS. This is my highest-conviction position.

$ONDS


Summary: Long OUST as underpriced robotics/autonomy play; long BTC as highest-conviction debasement hedge, never selling into weakness.

This is the kind of post that keeps me going, so thank you for sharing it @babyfolio. I'll use it as an opportunity to open up about the person behind this account :)

I've just turned 20, from a low-income working-class background. First to go to University/College. No one around me invested. I taught myself everything I know - and I funded a lot of my portfolio with my student loans. X accounts like the one below have had massive impacts on my development.

I've already taken hard losses. I've watched names I researched and passed on - $NBIS, $BE - run without me. That stings more than the losses do, because those were mine to take and I didn't.

Two positions carry the weight now:
$OUST - my bet on the robotics revolution. Autonomy doesn't happen without machines that perceive depth in real time. I think the market is still underpricing this
$BTC - my highest conviction asset, the one I'd never sell into weakness. Fixed supply, verifiable, borderless. I hold it as protection against long-term debasement, not for the next move. Short-term price action is noise to me.

What I have that older investors don't is time. A 40-year horizon lets me hold a thesis through drawdowns that force most people out at the bottom. That's the real edge of starting young - not being right faster, but being able to stay wrong longer without being forced to fold.

I started from zero, taught myself, and I'm betting on time. The wins and the losses both go here for free. I also run a subscription which you can feel free to check out!

Thank you to FinX and the fantastic accounts who have given me the knowledge to change my life.

Everyone with a portfolio under $100K doesn’t realize how quickly things can compound once you start making the right decisions consistently.

A lot of people think going from $100K to $1M is impossible, but surrounding yourself with smart investors, learning from the right


$BTC - my highest conviction asset, the one I'd never sell into weakness. Fixed supply, verifiable, borderless. I hold it as protection against long-term debasement


Summary: Watching AVAV earnings; bull case hinges on guidance raise above $2.0B from Iran emergency orders re-rating the stock.

$AVAV reports earnings tomorrow.

Last week it swung 40% in a single day on Iran headlines and contracts.

Here's what actually matters in tomorrow's report:
📊 Revenue consensus: ~$475M (prev Q was $472.5M)
🤖 Switchblade backlog - the number that moves the stock
🌍 International orders were 52% of revenue last Q. If that grows, it changes the thesis entirely
⚠ Gross margins compressed to 27% last Q (GAAP 22%) - need to see stabilization

The bull case: Iran escalation drove emergency orders that won't show in tomorrow's numbers, but will show in forward guidance. If they raise guidance above $2.0B, this re-rates.

The bear case: Margins keep compressing as they scale production faster than their supply chain can handle. Revenue beats don't matter if profitability erodes.

I'll be watching closely.

$AVAV


SPOILER: $10 SOON😏 $9.43: THE BREAKOUT IS CONFIRMED🚨 The long-term trend has flipped from Bearish to Bullish. Dips are for buying.

Summary: Long TE: cup-and-handle breakout confirmed at $9.43, targeting $10 psychological level then $11.50-$12.00; institutions accumulating, shorts trapped.

$TE Chart analysis...

SPOILER: $10 SOON😏

$9.43: THE BREAKOUT IS CONFIRMED🚨��🚨

The charts paint a pristine picture of a stock that has successfully transitioned from "speculative bounce" to "confirmed trend reversal."

Here is the thesis on where we go next.

1. The Daily Chart: The "Blue Sky"

This is the most important chart.

The Breakout: We just closed yesterday (or are currently trading) at $9.43, smashing through the key $9.29 resistance.

The Structure: Look at the massive "Cup and Handle" or "Rounding Bottom" formation that has been building since the $2.00 lows.

The move from $8.00 to $9.43 is the breakout from this massive base.

The Moving Averages: The price is well above all key EMAs/SMAs, and they are fanning out (short-term above long-term). This is the definition of a strong uptrend.

The Target: The next major structural resistance on the daily/weekly timeframe is the $10.00 psychological level, followed by the $11.50-$12.00 zone (historical resistance from previous years).

Verdict: The Daily chart says we are just getting started. This is not "overbought"; it is "breaking out."

2. The Weekly Chart: The Macro Reversal

This chart confirms the "Big Money" is involved.

The Volume: Look at the volume bars on the right side of the chart. They are significantly higher than during the downtrend. Institutions are accumulating.

The Trend Change: We have officially broken the "Lower High" sequence that plagued this stock for years. We just made a Higher High (above the recent $9.29 peak).

RSI: Weekly RSI is rising but not yet at extreme "blow-off top" levels (usually 80+). We have room to run.

Verdict: The long-term trend has flipped from Bearish to Bullish. Dips are for buying.

3. The 15-Minute Chart: The Intraday Battle

This shows us the immediate tactics.

Gap Up & Go: The stock gapped up and held. It didn't fade.

Consolidation: We are currently flagging/consolidating around $9.40-$9.45. This is healthy digestion of the move.

Support: The previous resistance at $9.29 is now SOLID SUPPORT. As long as we stay above $9.25-$9.30 intraday, the bulls are in full control.

- THE THESIS: "The Road to Double Digits"

We are entering the "FOMO Phase."

Short Covering: Shorts who were hoping for a double-top at $9.29 are now trapped. They must cover as we approach $10.00 to avoid margin calls.

Momentum Traders: The break of $9.30 puts this stock on every "New Highs" scanner on Wall Street. Fresh retail money is flooding in.

The $10.00 Magnet: Stocks love round numbers. The gravitational pull of $10.00 is now the dominant force.

The Chart Setup for Today/Tomorrow:

Bull Case (Likely): We consolidate between $9.35 and $9.50 this morning, then blast through $9.50 in the afternoon power hour. Target: $9.80-$10.00.

Bear Case (Unlikely): We fail to hold $9.30 and slip back to retest the breakout at $9.10. Action: If this happens, it is a SCREAMING BUY.🚀


Summary: Endorses HC Wainwright Buy reiteration with doubled $25 PT; author calls ONDS an easy buy.

As I said earlier, $ONDS is an easy buy!

$ONDS | 𝐎𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐬: H.C. Wainwright reiterates 𝐁𝐮𝐲, doubles 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟐𝟓

Analyst cites $1B+ cash raise, upgraded 2026/2030 revenue targets, and sees strength in aerial + robotics pipeline. https://t.co/YDi3Q0ENyV


they're now a key part of the $AMZN robotics setup so i'd say bullish

Summary: Bullish OUST as a key part of Amazon's robotics setup following acquisition.

@napoleon21st Tough one to predict but they’re now a key part of the $AMZN robotics setup so i’d say bullish

@CoffeeStocksGuy What do you think happens when $amzn acquires the $oust shares? I have positions in both


You are witnessing the final short-squeeze resistance level before the breakout to $9.50+. Target: $9.50-$10.00 by end of week

Summary: Bullish TE: technical breakout above $8.75 with institutional volume; targets $9.50–$10.00 by end of week on break above $9.00.

$TE is up 10%!!!

What just happened? Read below:

1. We Broke $8.75 Resistance ✅
Opened at $8.19, pushed through $8.75 by mid-morning

Now consolidating just below $9.00 (the psychological level)

This is exactly Scenario A from my earlier analysis

2. Volume Confirms Institutional Buying ✅

2.41M shares traded so far (only 3 hours in)

At this pace: ~6-7M by close (solid, not explosive but healthy)

Daily chart shows elevated volume bar compared to recent days

3. Technical Breakout Validated ✅

Daily Chart Signals:

RSI: 65.23 (approaching overbought but sustainable)

Stochastic: 65.39 (both lines above 50 = confirmed uptrend)

Price action: Series of higher highs from $7.24 → $8.14 → $8.96

Hourly Chart Signals:

RSI: 58.64 (neutral, can still push higher)

Stochastic: 32.86 (low = more room to run before overbought)

Pattern: Bull flag consolidation at $8.85-$8.95

The $9.00 Battle (Happening RIGHT NOW)
You are witnessing the final short-squeeze resistance level before the breakout to $9.50+.

Why $9.00 Matters:

Psychological: Round numbers attract profit-takers

Technical: This was last week's high ($9.29), so sellers from that level are breakeven here

Options: $9.00 strike call options are now ITM, creating gamma pressure

What Happens Next (3 Scenarios):

1. Scenario A: "Break and Hold $9.00" (Probability: 50%)
Pattern: Push through $9.00 by 11:00 AM ET → close $9.10-$9.30

Trigger: Volume spike above 4M by noon = institutions forcing the break

Target: $9.50-$10.00 by end of week

2. Scenario B: "Consolidation Below $9.00" (Probability: 40%)
Pattern: Chop between $8.80-$9.00 rest of day → close $8.85-$8.95

Trigger: Profit-takers defending $9.00, but buyers defending $8.80

Target: Breakout attempt Wednesday-Thursday

3. Scenario C: "Fade from Highs" (Probability: 10%)
Pattern: Rejection at $9.00 → fade to $8.60-$8.70 by close

Signal: If this happens, watch $8.50 support


every share they burn makes your slice of SK Hynix bigger. no new shares. no dilution. just a shrinking denominator on the world's dominant HBM supplier. this is what shareholder alignment actually looks like.

Summary: Bullish SK Square: 6.7% share cancellation since 2024 + 310B KRW 2026 returns shrink denominator on SK Hynix exposure; strong shareholder alignment thesis.

SK Square has cancelled 6.7% of its total shares since 2024.

not bought back. cancelled. permanently gone.

310 billion KRW in returns planned for 2026 alone - 110B in buybacks, 200B in cash dividends.

every share they burn makes your slice of SK Hynix bigger. no new shares. no dilution. just a shrinking denominator on the world’s dominant HBM supplier.

this is what shareholder alignment actually looks like.


Summary: Bullish NBIS: headline EPS/revenue miss is misleading; ARR beat own guidance by 14%, power target raised 20%, analysts can't model it — market mispricing the miss.

$NBIS just reported Q4 earnings and the headlines say "double miss."

EPS: -$0.68 vs -$0.44 expected (miss by 55%)
Revenue: $227.7M vs $242.8M expected (miss by 6%)

Sounds terrible right? Now look at the numbers that actually matter:

1. ARR hit $1.25 BILLION - beating their own $900M-$1.1B guidance by 14%

2. Contracted power raised to >3.0 GW - up from >2.5 GW

3. Revenue still up 547% YoY and 56% QoQ

4. New data centres in Missouri, Oklahoma, Alabama, Minnesota, France

This is EXACTLY what happened last quarter.

Nebius "missed" estimates while being completely sold out.

Analysts still can't model this business.

The street is pricing in a quarterly miss.

I'm pricing in a company that just raised its power target by 20% and beat its own ARR guidance by $150M.

Conference call at 7 PM GMT. That's where the real story is.

$NBIS


I didn't sell. I didn't capitulate. I read my thesis. It reassured me and reminded me about how early we are with this company.

Summary: Holding OUST through 14% drop; reaffirms long thesis on grounds the company is still early-stage.

I’ve got an unpopular opinion.

Days like today are brutal. $OUST is down 14%.

I’ve had a massive slice taken out of my profits.

But today’s like today are actually THE MOST important for any long-term investor.

They ground you.

They humble you.

They remove all of the euphoria very quickly.

This happened to me today.

What did I do you might wonder?

I didn’t sell. I didn’t capitulate.

I read my thesis.

This article below is IMO the deepest breakdown of the $OUST thesis available.

It reassured me and reminded me about how early we are with this company.

Sell-offs like this are still brutal. But they’re part of a longer journey.

Remind yourself today why you do this.

Why you put your money on the line.

Learn something today.

~ Coffee House


Summary: Still holding KRKNF long.

@retail_mourinho @PhotonBull @EhrmantrautCap_ I remain long $KRKNF $PNG.NE 🦑🦑

According to X am I the only $KRKNF bull left besides @PhotonBull & @EhrmantrautCap_

LONG $KRKNF 🦑

-RM https://t.co/schMf7sImw


Summary: Bullish RKLB: record backlog, revenue, and launch cadence yet stock down 29%; argues execution should drive a re-rating.

$RKLB just crossed $2B total backlog.

28 launches sold in Q1 alone - nearly matching all of 2025.

The $190M HASTE hypersonic contract is the largest launch deal they've ever signed.

Q4 revenue: $180M (record)
Full year: $602M (+38% YoY)
21 launches in 2025 with 100% success rate
84 total Electron missions and counting

The stock is down 29% from January highs.

At some point, execution has to matter.


I have re-entered some positions yesterday and today. I love every one of these stocks.

Summary: Re-entered long positions in NBIS, IREN, CIFR, PATH, ONDS; high-growth portfolio, bullish on all five.

I have re-entered some positions yesterday and today.

The Coffee House Stocks Portfolio now consists of the following names:

$NBIS
$IREN
$CIFR
$PATH
$ONDS

High growth. Execution is key. I love every one of these stocks.

Thanks to the lettuce hands for giving me some lovely positions!

Are you bullish on these?


Summary: Long RKLB at $67 into earnings; down 32% from ATH, $1.3B contracts, 21 successful launches, Neutron timeline update due.

$RKLB earnings in 10 days and nobody is talking about this setup.

1. Down 32% from ATH.
2. $1.3B in SDA contracts.
3. 21 successful launches in 2025 with 100% mission success.
4. Neutron timeline update coming on the call.

At $67, this is the entry I've been waiting for.

Here's what I'm watching 👇


Summary: Bullish NVDA; durable AI leadership keeps it compounding.

@KobeissiLetter $NVDA just don't stop printing. They are the centre of the entire AI race.

BREAKING: Nvidia stock, $NVDA, extends gains to +4% after posting a record quarter, adding +$190 BILLION in market cap.

Earnings results include:

1. Record quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion
2. Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $79.6 billion
3. Data Center revenue up ~+1,200% since https://t.co/X0sCBnUYyQ


Summary: Bullish OSS: $225M market cap viewed as insane value, implying deep undervaluation.

How is the $OSS marketcap only $225 million😂😂

Insane value. https://t.co/7xn9QowKM6


Summary: Author calls PL, ASTS, RKLB value buys after sector selloff despite strong PL fundamentals; high-valuation compression risk acknowledged.

Nice insight from Kaizen here and valuable perspective on $PL.

This space selloff isn't sorting winners from losers. It's selling everything.

Look at $PL since late May.

Planet Labs: Q1 revenue +42% to $94.2M, backlog +72% to over $906M. A beat. Yet, it's down 49% from May highs.

That's what a $SPCX -driven rotation looks like mainly. Now that $SPCX has fallen below IPO price we're reaching max pain on anyone who held.

I've got three stocks in the Space sector I'm focused on:

1. $PL
2. $ASTS
3. $RKLB

I think we're definitely in a value area to buy important companies in the sector. But, do your own DD and risk management as high valuations means compression can continue.

I have said that the announcement of the ATM was a very bad timing for $PL. If we look at the numbers now, I’m not so sure of that any more.

$PL is down 48% of ath
$RKLB: 43%
$ASTS: 49%
$SATL: 53%
$RDW: 56%
$FLY: 57%
$BKSY: 51%

Looks like the market did not punish the ATM as


I've got three stocks in the Space sector I'm focused on: 1. $PL 2. $ASTS 3. $RKLB


Summary: Adding to long position in TE; urges holding through algorithmic volatility.

Buying more $TE.

Don't let the algo's scare you. https://t.co/rl2yWwIFcD


Set a small weekly buy (no matter the price)... Ignore the daily charts for 5 years

Summary: Advocates DCA-buying and holding BTC for 5+ years as a long-term wealth preservation strategy.

How to use Bitcoin to protect your wealth (without the noise):

Most people treat Bitcoin like a gambling app. The real value isn't the price - it's ownership.

Here is the 3-step system to opt out of the old system:

1. Set a small weekly buy (no matter the price).
2. Move your coins to a hardware wallet immediately.
3. Ignore the daily charts for 5 years.

You aren't just "buying a stock." You are building a bank where you are the boss.

Curious - how many of you are still keeping 100% of your savings in a traditional bank?


Summary: Initiated a long swing trade in IREN after today's sharp price decline.

I have initiated a swing trade in $IREN after the massive fall today in price.

Inspired by @conorstonks 💪 https://t.co/Hus3Ta4QoW


Summary: Nuclear fuel (LEU) is the unpriced bottleneck in the hyperscaler-nuclear buildout; bullish on LEU and broader nuclear sector names.

Hyperscalers have locked in 10GW of nuclear capacity.

There is one licensed US producer of the fuel to run it.

The chips got repriced. The power got repriced.
The fuel hasn't.

$LEU is the bottleneck nobody has priced yet.

read below for the entire nuclear sector map 👇

$CCJ $SMR $OKLO $XE $URAA