Summary: Long ONDS with 12-month PT $15, accumulate below $8; high-conviction growth thesis on IoT/drone inflection, defense tailwinds, and 600%+ revenue ramp.

THE ULTIMATE ONDAS HOLDINGS ( $ONDS  ) INVESTMENT THESIS REPORT

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Executive Thesis
$ONDS is operating at inflection point with 600% YoY Q3 2025 revenue growth

My actions (NFA): ACCUMULATE below $8.00 | HOLD current positions

12-month price target: $15.00 (vs. current $8.75)

A Three-Part Analysis:

The Bull Case ✅
Secular tailwinds: Industrial IoT + autonomous drones
Q3 2025 inflection: $10.1M revenue (+820% YoY)
Defense spending tailwind + $68.6M cash position
IEEE 802.16t standard validation

The Bear Case ⚠
2024 revenue collapsed 54% despite contract wins (execution risk)
Path to profitability still 24-30 months away
Pre-profitable, requires flawless execution
Customer concentration risk (defense likely >50%)

Financial Deep Dive
Valuation: 41.08x forward P/S (compressed for growth)
Balance sheet: Debt eliminated, $68.6M cash runway
Three scenarios: Base ($15-18), Bull ($22-25), Bear ($3-5)

Key Catalysts:

1. Q4 2025 earnings (Jan 2026): Confirm inflection
2. NGHE railway deployment validation
3. Defense budget allocation decisions
4. Path to profitability visibility

Risk/Reward
1. High execution risk but strong secular tailwinds
2. Best suited for growth-oriented investors

The report emphasizes that $ONDS is a high-conviction growth thesis disguised as a hardware company. The critical test is whether Q3's revenue inflection sustains or represents temporary noise.

I hope you enjoy.

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PART 1: THE BULL CASE - SECULAR TAILWINDS & COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
1.1 Market Opportunity: Industrial IoT Meets Critical Infrastructure

Ondas operates at the intersection of two powerful trends:

1. Private Industrial Wireless Networks (FullMAX Platform)

- Total addressable market: $20B+ for mission-critical IoT in transportation, utilities, energy, and government sectors

- IEEE 802.16t standard formally adopted (May 2025), validating Ondas' FullMAX technology as industry standard

- Association of American Railroads (AAR) selected FullMAX as backbone for Next-Generation Head-of-Train/End-of-Train (NGHE) system—institutional validation of product-market fit

- Legacy narrowband networks require modernization across critical infrastructure (utilities, rail, oil & gas)

Autonomous Drone Systems (American Robotics & Airobotics)

- FAA Type Certification achieved for Optimus system (industry first)

- First drone system approved for fully automated BVLOS operations without on-site operator

- Defense & government funding accelerating following geopolitical tensions and drone technology proliferation

- Q2 2025: $14.3M Optimus order (largest-ever) signals defense spending momentum

1.2 Recent Revenue Inflection & Contract Momentum
The Q3 2025 results (Dec 2025 announcement) reveal dramatic trajectory change (below).

Six-fold revenue growth within 12 months fundamentally changes valuation calculus.

If this trajectory sustains, annualized 2025 revenue reaches $35-40M (vs. $7.2M in 2024), implying:

1. Forward P/S: 41.08x
2. 2026 Runway: With $68.6M cash + operating losses declining, company achieves operating profitability within 18-24 months

1.3 Balance Sheet Transformation
Critical positive development (Q2 2025):

1. Converted all outstanding convertible notes to equity-eliminates debt overhang
2. Shareholders' equity surged from $16.6M (Dec 2024) → $90.8M (Q2 2025)
3. Cash position: $68.6M to fund expansion without dilution
4. Working capital deficit eliminated

Implication: Company removed financial distress scenario. With proper execution, no meaningful dilution risk through 2026+.

1.4 Defense Tailwind & Geopolitical Momentum

1. Large defense contractor orders (Q2's $14.3M Optimus order) indicate:

2. Government recognition of autonomous drone superiority in contested environments

3. Multi-year procurement cycles starting (defense budgets historically expand in geopolitical instability)

4. Technology moat hardening: FAA certifications create 18-36 month competitive advantage

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PART 2: THE BEAR CASE - EXECUTION RISK & FINANCIAL REALITY CHECK

2.1 The 2024 Paradox: Contracts ≠ Revenue Recognition
Critical red flag: 2024 saw major strategic wins (NGHE railway deal, government contracts) but full-year revenue collapsed 54% to $7.2M.

Possible explanations (must monitor in Q4 2025 earnings):

- Deployment timing mismatch: Large contracts signed but customer acceptance/payment delayed

- Gross margin dilution: Early-stage system deployments running below target margins (48% solution engineering costs vs. 53% gross margin expected)

- Revenue accounting conservatism: Deferred revenue recognition pending contract milestones

- Investor concern: Are Q3 2025 results indicating sustained inflection or temporary surge before normalizing to historical trends?

2.2 Persistent Losses & Cash Burn
Despite impressive gross margins recovering to 53% (Q2 2025 vs. -20% Q2 2024):

- 2024 full-year net loss: $38M on $7.2M revenue (-528% net margin)

- Operating losses $34.6M in 2024, improved but still substantial

- Cash burn rate: Even with $68.6M war chest, operating expenses suggest 24-30 month runway before cash flow positive

- R&D intensity: Continued investment in drone autonomy, wireless standards, and defense integrations required

Challenge: Must achieve 50%+ revenue CAGR while expanding gross margins AND reducing opex intensity simultaneously. Historical SaaS/hardware transitions rarely achieve this trifecta.

2.3 Valuation: Premium Pricing Before Profitability Achieved
Current metrics suggest market pricing in:
- 2026 revenue: $30-40M (5x current run rate)
- Path to profitability: 2026-2027
- No significant dilution

Reality check: At $8.75 stock price with 372.56M shares:
- Market cap: $3.26B
- Forward P/S (assuming $35M 2026 revenue): 0.09x

This is not expensive for hardware-enabled B2B SaaS with government contracts, but it assumes flawless execution.

---

PART 3: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & VALUATION
3.1 Income Statement Trajectory

                             2023        2024        2025E (Run Rate)
Revenue             $15.7M      $7.2M       $35-40M
Gross Profit        $6.4M       $0.35M      $18.6-21.2M (53% margin)
Operating Loss      ($39.7M)    ($34.6M)    ($12-15M) [estimated]
Net Loss            ($44.8M)    ($38.0M)    ($10-12M) [estimated]

Key drivers of improvement:

Revenue scale covering fixed infrastructure costs

Gross margin recovery from 4.8% (2024) to 53% (Q2-Q3 2025) reflects product mix shift

Operating expense leverage: $10.3M quarterly opex on $10.1M revenue = breakeven approaching rapidly

3.2 Balance Sheet Strength (Post-Restructuring)
- No external capital required through profitability (24-30 months)
- Debt elimination removes refinancing risk
- Strong balance sheet enables M&A for accelerated growth (Airobotics acquisition completed)

3.3 Valuation Scenarios

Base Case: $15-18 per share
- 2026 revenue: $35M
- Gross margin: 52%
- Operating loss: $5M (improving to breakeven 2027)
- Forward multiple: 2.8-3.2x P/S (SaaS-plus-hardware comparable)

Bull Case: $22-25 per share
- 2026 revenue: $50M (accelerated defense spending)
- Gross margin: 54%
- Operating profit: $2-3M (2026)
- Multiple expansion to 3.5-4.0x P/S as profitability visible

Bear Case: $3-5 per share
- Revenue stalls at $15-20M (contract delays)
- Margin compression to 40% (customer mix shift)
- Continued losses through 2027
- Multiple contraction to 0.7-1.0x P/S

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING & MOATS

Strategic Assets

1. Regulatory Moats
- FAA Type Certification (12-18 month barrier for competitors)
- IEEE 802.16t standard adoption (Ondas architecture now codified)

2. Customer Relationships
- Government contracts with DoD, Department of Transportation
- AAR partnership (railroad industry standard-setting)
- Enterprise accounts in utilities and energy (sticky, high-switching costs)

3. Technical IP
- FullMAX wireless protocol (proprietary software + standards-based)
- Autonomous drone autonomy stack (American Robotics)
- Mission-critical reliability record (critical infrastructure demand)

Competitive Threats
- Large defense contractors (RTX, LMT, NOC) could in-source drone autonomy
- Wireless standards bodies may commoditize FullMAX (802.16t adoption double-edged)
- Chinese competition in commercial drone autonomy (DJI ecosystem challenges)

---

CATALYSTS & INFLECTION POINTS (Next 12-24 Months)

Near-Term (Q4 2025 - Q2 2026)
- Q4 2025 earnings (Jan 2026): Confirm Q3 inflection or reveal stagnation
- NGHE railway deployment updates: First major end-customer validation
- Defense budget allocation (FY2026): $50B+ drone/autonomy spending targeted
- Gross margin sustainability: Monitor product mix and cost structure

Medium-Term (Q3 2026 - Q1 2027)
- Path to operating profitability visibility
- Revenue run rate clarity (is $40M achievable?)
- International expansion announcements (Europe, Middle East mentioned in guidance)
- Potential M&A or strategic partnerships with larger platforms

Long-Term (2027+)
- Profitability achievement & positive free cash flow
- Market cap expansion (if achieving $100M+ revenue)
- Potential acquisition target for larger defense and infrastructure conglomerates

---

RISK ASSESSMENT

Execution Risks (HIGH)
- Converting $22M backlog to revenue (critical in Q4 2025/Q1 2026)
- Maintaining 50%+ YoY growth while achieving profitability
- Managing customer concentration (defense likely >50% of revenue)

Market Risks (MEDIUM)
- Geopolitical de-escalation reducing defense budgets
- Automation adoption delays in critical infrastructure (regulatory, cultural)
- 802.16t adoption slower than anticipated

Financial Risks (MEDIUM)
- Extended path to profitability (opex discipline critical)
- Working capital management (government contract payment delays common)
- Dilution risk if growth stalls (cash runway shortens)

Competitive Risks (MEDIUM)
- Large contractors entering autonomous drone market
- 802.16t commoditization reducing pricing power
- Supply chain vulnerability (drone components sourcing)

---

COMPARABLE COMPANY ANALYSIS

ONDS trades at significant discount to profitable peers, justified by execution risk but providing margin of safety. https://t.co/qp8tKzHJ4h

---

CONCLUSION: THESIS VERDICT

Ondas Holdings $ONDS is a HIGH-CONVICTION GROWTH PLAY disguised as a HARDWARE COMPANY.

The Thesis Works If:
✅ Q3 2025 revenue inflection sustained through Q4/Q1
✅ Gross margins remain 50%+ (indicating strong government contracts)
✅ Cash burn controlled (opex discipline)
✅ No major customer concentration (defense diversification)

The Thesis Breaks If:
❌ Revenue declines in Q4 2025
❌ Gross margins compress below 40%
❌ Cash runway extends beyond 2027
❌ Backog remains unconverted (contract delays)


Summary: Long OUST as a primary beneficiary of stacking legislation banning Chinese LiDAR from US procurement, targeting 57% of global supply chain — Huawei-playbook realignment to domestic suppliers.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

$OUST is up sharply and I'm seeing growing excitement across my timeline. Here's why it's rational.

Two pieces of legislation are stacking - and neither has taken effect yet.

1. BUILD America 250 is a bipartisan five-year surface transportation bill. Section 6009 prohibits the DOT from procuring or funding LiDAR from covered companies - using the exact same definitions from Section 164 of the FY25 NDAA that already banned Chinese LiDAR from DoD procurement.

The companies in scope aren't marginal. Hesai has held the top global LiDAR market share position for four consecutive years - 33% by revenue in 2024. Robosense holds 24%. Section 6009 targets 57% of the global LiDAR supply chain. Effective date: one year after enactment.

2. The SAFE LiDAR Act is coming separately. Different statutory mechanism, same direction - restricting Chinese LiDAR from critical US infrastructure on national security and cybersecurity grounds.

This is the Huawei telecoms playbook. National security designation. Procurement ban across defence, then civilian infrastructure. Supply chain realignment to qualified domestic suppliers. The DoD half already passed. BUILD America 250 is the civilian extension.

$OUST is one of the few US-headquartered suppliers positioned across infrastructure sensing, smart cities, and autonomous vehicles - the exact end markets this legislation is written to protect.

---

Here's my full research report:

https://t.co/9obkEMJY3b


Summary: Buy OSS tomorrow; still cheap despite 7% post-market pop.

$OSS up 7% post-market🫡🧨

If you missed it today, get a good nights sleep…

Because you can buy it tomorrow still cheap😉🚀 https://t.co/IncpeKkxb3


Summary: Five underappreciated stocks pitched as buys: SWC (BTC treasury), SATL (satellite launch), BE (fuel cell backlog), ASTS (space), HOOD (sentiment reversal).

5 stocks FinX doesn't talk about enough:

1. $SWC - Britain's largest Bitcoin Treasury.
2. $SATL - Successful Satellite Launch with SpaceX
3. $BE - Record Backlog on Fuel Cells
4. $ASTS - Massive space name often overshadowed
5. $HOOD - Massive reversal when sentiment rises

These all are fantastic companies.

What are your 5?


$ASTS - Massive space name often overshadowed


$HOOD - Massive reversal when sentiment rises


Summary: Structural AI memory supercycle thesis: long SK Hynix (most mispriced at 7x fwd), MU (supply-constrained, $950 PT), and DRAM ETF as pure-play on the shift.

The CEO of Seagate $STX has told JPMorgan demand is "significantly higher" than their 4–5 quarter visibility window. He can't build fast enough.

This chart tells you why. DRAM revenue in Q1 FY26 has nearly doubled the previous cycle peak from FY18. NAND is flat.

This isn't a cyclical recovery - it's a structural step-change, and it's entirely driven by AI memory demand.

Three names positioned for exactly what he described:

 -> $000660 - SK Hynix. 62% global HBM market share. 3× Micron's position. Shortages through 2027.

-> $MU. BofA raised the PT from $500 to $950 last week. AI data centre TAM of $1.7T by 2030. Supply-constrained for the full cycle.

-> $DRAM. The pure-play ETF on the structural shift the CEO just confirmed.

SK Hynix at 7× forward earnings is the most mispriced AI infrastructure asset on the market.

$DRAM $MU $SNDK $000660

Seagate shares are under pressure after CEO Dave Mosley said at JPM TMT that building new factories would “take too long.”

$STX says demand is above supply, but it is focusing on higher-density drive transitions instead of new capacity. They expects HAMR to reach 50% exabyte https://t.co/GipMqEWcdR


$MU. BofA raised the PT from $500 to $950 last week. AI data centre TAM of $1.7T by 2030. Supply-constrained for the full cycle.


$DRAM. The pure-play ETF on the structural shift the CEO just confirmed.


Summary: Long Oust as the way to play humanoid robot intelligence layer, prompted by MU CEO's memory demand thesis.

$MU CEO is telling you humanoid robots are the future.

Own the intelligence layer. $OUST

Very interesting statement today: $MU CEO predicts a multi-decade memory demand cycle driven by humanoid robots.

"Humanoid robots, he says, will require roughly ten times more memory than today’s Level 2+ autonomous vehicles."

"And that demand wave is set to begin before the https://t.co/bVnvG1Ihit


Summary: Long OUST: NVDA certification, NASA lunar contract, and German defense integration prove the market undervalues REV8 as a multi-vertical platform at $2.5B cap.

$OUST. Now integrated with $NVDA, NASA, and German Defense. Up 13% today.

The common thread: REV8 - a unified digital lidar platform built for Physical AI. One sensor architecture across every application.

Q1 2026: $49M revenue. A record. Up 49% year on year.
The market is still pricing this as a basic LiDAR company. The contracts say otherwise.

NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion - the reference platform every major autonomous vehicle programme builds on - certified REV8 as a qualified sensor.

When $NVDA certifies a sensor, the supply chain follows. That’s not a partnership announcement. That’s a standard being set.

NASA selected Ouster for the Astrolab FLIP rover. Lunar south pole. Launching late 2026.
The sensor stack that navigates Earth now navigates the Moon.

This morning: ARGUS Interception - founded by former German Armed Forces officers - integrated $OUST digital lidar into their A1-Falke® counter-drone interceptor.

The A1-Falke® captures hostile drones intact via patented net launchers. Not destroyed. Intact - for forensic analysis. Origin. Capabilities. Intelligence value.
Deployed specifically where kinetic options are unacceptable. Airports. Nuclear infrastructure. Government buildings.

Ouster was chosen for the “decisive near-range phase.” The moment the intercept succeeds or fails. Precision that radar and cameras cannot provide at close range.

Defense demands the highest precision tolerances of any application. A net capture that misses by centimetres fails entirely.
If it works here, it works everywhere.

Autonomous vehicles. Lunar surface. European counter-drone defense.

The possibilities are endless with Rev8 colour LiDAR.

Three independent verticals. One platform. $2.5B market cap.
$OUST


Jefferies cut its rating from Buy to Hold. Jefferies also reduced its price target from 269 USD to 260 USD.

Summary: Shares/endorses Jefferies downgrade of FSLR from Buy to Hold, PT cut to $260, on limited policy upside, booking visibility, and capped near-term risk-reward.

$TE is red in the pre-market🔴🔴🔴

👹Here is why:

Jefferies has downgraded First Solar (ticker FSLR) and trimmed its price target.

What actually happened:

•Jefferies cut its rating from Buy to Hold.

•Jefferies also reduced its price target from 269 USD to 260 USD.

•The downgrade and lower PT triggered a ~10% selloff in the shares on the day of the note.

Key reasons Jefferies gave

•“Limited policy upside” from trade/tariff tailwinds like Section 232 versus what had been priced in.

•Reduced visibility on future bookings, after guidance cuts, de‑bookings and margin pressure in prior periods.

•Concerns around international facilities, logistics costs, and risk of under‑utilization as capacity is shifted and tariffs bite.

•View that upside is largely capped near term after a strong run in the stock and rich multiples, so risk‑reward looks more balanced at current levels.
Quick trading/positioning read

•The downgrade is idiosyncratic, not a sector‑wide cut, but it leans into an already cautious narrative on policy and bookings for 2026.

•Consensus is still “Moderate Buy” with an average PT in the high 260s–270s region, so Jefferies is now slightly below the pack on rating and PT.


added to $OUST today. added on the dip. holding for the build.

Summary: Long OUST: added on EPS-miss dip; argues market misread one-time royalty noise, real business growing 49% YoY with Stereolabs upside and LiDAR+camera+AI platform potential.

added to $OUST today. up 10%

the market sold it off on an EPS miss. -$0.28 vs -$0.11 to -$0.21 expected. ugly on the surface.

but Q4 2025 had significant one-time royalty income. strip that out and the sequential deterioration that spooked everyone largely disappears. the market compared the wrong numbers.

meanwhile the actual business: $49M revenue, +49% YoY, beat on the top line, 12,600+ sensors shipped. and Q2 guidance of $49.5M-$52.5M includes a full quarter of Stereolabs revenue for the first time.

the EPS reaction missed the point entirely.

$OUST isn’t a quarterly story. they just launched a sensing stack that combines LiDAR with camera-level vision in a single system. sensors, cameras, and AI software converging into one perception platform.

if that works - and the product roadmap suggests it’s working - $OUST becomes part of the core infrastructure powering robotics, autonomy, and smart cities.
you don’t value that on one quarter’s EPS. you value it on what the platform becomes.

added on the dip. holding for the build.


Summary: Avoiding RGTI (extreme valuation vs revenue), OKLO (zero revenue, no deployed reactor), and TE (accounting-inflated earnings, cash burn crisis).

3 stocks I'm not touching right now:

$RGTI - $6.5B market cap. $7.09M in FY25 revenue, down 34% YoY. Quarterly opex runs ~12× quarterly revenue. The quantum technology is real. This valuation prices in a future you can't buy yet.

$OKLO - $11.5B market cap. Zero revenue. No reactor deployed. Sam Altman is involved. That's not a financial metric.

$TE - Q1 "record net income" of $3.9M was carried by $30M in non-cash warrant gains. Actual operating loss: -$22.5M. Q1 cash burn: $147M. Unrestricted cash: $46M. Still needs $225M to finish G2_Austin. 99.9% of revenue is one related party.

Some popular names here. What do you think?


Summary: Memory stocks (Hynix, MU, SNDK) are cheap vs a 4.9% DRAM supply-demand gap in 2026 — the market hasn't repriced for the most severe shortage in 15 years.

SK Hynix KOSPI 000660; dominant HBM/DRAM supplier

The most important number in memory right now isn't a price.

It's 4.9% - Goldman's updated DRAM supply-demand gap for 2026. The most severe shortage in 15 years.

Yet, names like SK Hynix are only at 5x forward p/e.

The market hasn't repriced memory for this yet.

$DRAM $MU $SNDK


The market hasn't repriced memory for this yet. $MU


The market hasn't repriced memory for this yet. $SNDK


Summary: BTC is the only crypto with true value; implicitly bullish on BTC while all others decline.

@goooonnney @Leo_Traydes Absolutely- the only one with true value is $BTC

@Leo_Traydes I kind of feel bad but I told people all crypto are the same

“Utility” is priced in

It’s going under $1


Summary: Bullish RKLB into Thursday earnings; sees favorable asymmetry at current levels despite real risks.

THE ULTIMATE $RKLB PRE-EARNINGS BREAKDOWN

Rocket Lab reports Thursday after close. Here's everything you need to know.
📊 THE NUMBERS
→ Revenue expected: ~$177M (was $105M a year ago) → EPS: -$0.10 est (beat by 69% last quarter at -$0.03) → Last Q revenue: $155M (beat estimates)
→ FY2025: 21 Electron launches, 100% mission success

🛡 THE DEFENSE MOAT
→ $816M prime contract for missile tracking satellites (SDA Tranche 3)
→ $1.3B in Space Development Agency contracts
→ 4th HASTE hypersonic mission scheduled NOW ("Cassowary Vex")
→ Scramjet-powered DART AE for Defense Innovation Unit

🚀 THE NEUTRON CATALYST
→ Hungry Hippo fairing arrived at Virginia launch site
→ First flight expected H1 2026
→ Tank rupture during testing = setback but not a dealbreaker
→ 13,000 kg to LEO capacity opens $100B+ addressable market
→ Reusable design = margin expansion engine

💰 THE VALUATION QUESTION
→ Analyst consensus: $86.89 (22% upside)
→ Bank of America and Goldman Sachs raised targets → SpaceX IPO (mid-2026) could reprice entire sector

⚠ THE RISKS
→ Neutron delays could extend cash burn
→ ~215x forward revenue multiple
→ Government contract timing uncertainty
→ Broader tech selloff dragging small-caps

MY TAKE: The risk is real but the asymmetry at these levels is what I'm watching.

Earnings Thursday. ⚡

$RKLB


I feel like i'll be adding to this position now all the way up…

Summary: Adding to long OUST position as it continues higher; endorses bullish thesis.

@Lupen3Harmonics Agreed - I feel like i’ll be adding to this position now all the way up…

@CoffeeStocksGuy $OUST is a retirement play. Going back to $150+ quickly


Yesterday it closed at $31 and I'm now thoroughly assessing a potential position.

Summary: Assessing a long position in PL at $31 after selloff; cites backlog growth, defense mix shift, and near-breakeven financials as bullish drivers.

I’ve seen a lot of people taking new positions in $PL from yesterday. I’ve been following the name since around $16 and thought I’d missed it as it raced to $48.

Yesterday it closed at $31 and I’m now thoroughly assessing a potential position.

-> Backlog outrunning revenue.

$906.1M, +72% YoY; RPOs +80% - both faster than the +42% revenue line. 40% converts inside 12 months.

-> Defense mix shift.

D&I revenue +65% YoY, now the engine. Reprices $PL from commercial imagery toward a government data-subscription model.

-> Selloff was rotation, not fundamentals.

Down 9% Friday on zero company news while SPCX closed +19%. Capital rotated to the IPO; the business didn’t change.

-> Funded and near profitable.

Cash $730.8M, +223% YoY. FY27 guide: breakeven-to-$10M EBITDA, FCF positive expected this year.

$PL is a fantastic company and I’ve learnt a lot about it from @Kaizen_Investor (he got in at $4!). Let’s see what Monday brings.


Summary: Bullish TE: short squeeze underway, $10 target is inevitable per author.

I needed to get this out quickly.

$TE short squeeze is happening in real time.

$10 is a case of when, not if.

Please share this with everyone.

@accounting_ds @DeNebulord @SJCapitalInvest


Summary: Long OUST as NVDA's chosen winner in robotics, qualified on both Jetson and DRIVE Hyperion platforms.

Most people saw one $OUST × $NVDA announcement this week. There were actually two.

May 5: Rev8 qualified on NVIDIA Jetson (robotics + edge AI)
May 12: Rev8 qualified on NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion (autonomous vehicles)

$NVDA have chosen their winner in the robotics race.

read more below 👇


The risk/reward is extremely attractive - especially if you're bullish on Bitcoin like myself. Very attractive entry right now IMO.

Summary: Long SWC (UK's largest BTC treasury) at 26p; targets ~46p on BTC $100k recovery + 1x mNAV, nearly a 2x from here.

$SWC (UK's biggest $BTC Treasury) now at just 26p/share.

The risk/reward is extremely attractive - especially if you're bullish on Bitcoin like myself.

For a 0.73 mNAV, you can get:

1. 2695 $BTC on the Balance Sheet
2. 34p of Bitcoin per share
3. A fantastic, transparent leadership team

Let's say $BTC rises back to $100k and SWC hits just a 1x mnav.

That is a share price of around 46p a share - almost a 2x with no premium!

Very attractive entry right now IMO.

$SWC $SWC.LN

5 stocks FinX doesn't talk about enough:

1. $SWC - Britain's largest Bitcoin Treasury.
2. $SATL - Successful Satellite Launch with SpaceX
3. $BE - Record Backlog on Fuel Cells
4. $ASTS - Massive space name often overshadowed
5. $HOOD - Massive reversal when sentiment rises


I know two companies partnered with $NVDA and building these capabilities. $OUST — LiDAR. Precise 3D colour mapping of the physical world. Q1 revenue $49M, up 49% year over year. 13th consecutive quarter of product revenue growth.

Summary: Long OUST and ARBE as the two NVDA-partnered perception plays on Physical AI/robotics, winning on LiDAR and 4D radar respectively.

Jensen Huang just said physical AI is generating $9 billion in annual revenue. He mentioned 'robotics' twelve times in the Earnings call.

 I know two companies partnered with $NVDA and building these capabilities 👇

$OUST — LiDAR. Precise 3D colour mapping of the physical world.
$ARBE — 4D imaging radar. All-weather detection where LiDAR cannot operate.

I have attached both deep-dives articles in the comments.

$NVDA wins on compute. These two win on perception.

$OUST $ARBE $NVDA

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1/ $OUST

Q1 revenue $49M, up 49% year over year. 13th consecutive quarter of product revenue growth. Over 12,600 LiDAR and camera sensors shipped last quarter across robotics, industrial automation, and smart infrastructure. The company already describes itself as a Physical AI sensing platform. Jensen just validated the entire market.

https://t.co/YBRopFBCE6

---

2/ $ARBE

Pre-revenue but technologically differentiated. Their 4D imaging radar delivers 100x the resolution of conventional radar and operates in conditions where LiDAR fails - rain, fog, darkness. Q1 results due May 28.

https://t.co/oTUndnvn98


$ARBE — 4D imaging radar. All-weather detection where LiDAR cannot operate. Pre-revenue but technologically differentiated. Their 4D imaging radar delivers 100x the resolution of conventional radar.

industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'


Summary: Full-ported long in T1 Energy on solar thesis; endorses 4:1 risk/reward with $12-18 12-month target.

A lot of people have asked me about $TE.

Here is why I am full-ported in it.

Solar is the future 🔮

🔬 T1 ENERGY ( $TE ) - DEEP RESEARCH REPORT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Quick Answer: T1 Energy ($TE) displays strong asymmetric bet characteristics with a 4:1 risk/reward ratio.

Current Price: $8.82 | 12-Month Target: $12-18 | Bear Case: $5-6 | Bull Case: $22-25

1. 💰 THE BUSINESS https://t.co/KYVI7aN1jv


$TE seemingly overcoming a monumental $9 resistance. Good effort bears. Hope you're covering!

Summary: Bullish TE breaking above key $9 resistance; taunting bears to cover.

$TE seemingly overcoming a monumental $9 resistance.

Good effort bears. Hope you’re covering!

🚀🚀🚀 https://t.co/zC6JBYRXyB


Summary: Bullish NBIS; quarterly results will silence bears.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

@babyfolio Quarterly results are going to hush the bears

Do you think $NBIS management should have more focus on PR or should they just let quarterly results do the talking?


the only major independent American LiDAR company. $48M product revenue. +55% YoY. $175M cash. zero long-term debt.

Summary: Bullish OUST: NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion qualification shortens sales cycle; strong financials and sole major US LiDAR pure-play.

$OUST just got qualified on the NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion platform.

Rev8 sensors are now pre-integrated into DriveWorks SDK. this means any team building autonomy on $NVDA silicon can toggle $OUST into their perception stack. the sales cycle just got shorter.

the future of AI and physiscal robotics is here.

$48M product revenue. +55% YoY. $175M cash. zero long-term debt.

the only major independent American LiDAR company.

full breakdown in the article 👇


Summary: Decisive bullish verdict on PLTR as the premier defense/war stock.

@CoffeeStocksGuy I know $PLTR should be on that list


Bitcoin and Smarter Web - both ridiculously mispriced right now!

Summary: Both Bitcoin and Smarter Web (SWC) are ridiculously mispriced; bullish on both at current levels.

$SWC (UK's biggest $BTC Treasury) now at just 26p/share.

The risk/reward is extremely attractive - especially if you're bullish on Bitcoin like myself.

For a 0.73 mNAV, you can get:

1. 2695 $BTC on the Balance Sheet
2. 34p of Bitcoin per share
3. A fantastic, transparent https://t.co/TV9eAKqUnh


Summary: Long Filtronic as the best pure-play space stock; SpaceX equity-linked deal creates deep technical lock-in, GaN advantage, and multi-year revenue certainty.

Filtronic plc on LSE AIM; Starlink RF/GaN supplier context confirms

The Uniqueness of the Filtronic-SpaceX Agreement is not being discussed enough.

The agreement between Filtronic and SpaceX is not a standard supplier contract; it is a highly structured, equity-linked strategic alliance that is unique for several reasons:

1. Counter-Vertical Integration Validation

SpaceX is known for its intense preference for vertical integration-designing and building almost everything in-house to control costs and speed. Filtronic’s 5-year partnership for E-band SSPAs is a rare exception, serving as a "significant testament" to Filtronic’s ability to design technology that SpaceX cannot efficiently replicate.

2. The "Order Cadence" Clause

Unlike typical contracts that rely on a "best efforts" basis, this agreement includes a strict cadence of order flow. SpaceX must place minimum orders of at least $10 million in every 12-month period. If the timing between orders exceeds 12 months, the warrants issued to SpaceX expire within six months.

This effectively forces a steady demand floor.

3. Performance-Linked Equity Warrants

The agreement gives SpaceX the right to own up to 15% of Filtronic, but this ownership is strictly "earned." Warrants vest in tranches tied directly to order volume and technology milestones:

• Tranche 1: Vested upon $37m in orders for E-band SSPA platforms.

• Tranche 2: Vests based on orders for products in alternative frequency bands or next-gen GaN (Gallium Nitride) technology.

• Tranche 3: Issued at a higher exercise price (92.8p), further aligning interests as the relationship scales.

4. First-Mover Advantage in GaN Technology

The most recent expansion of the deal makes SpaceX the primary beneficiary of Filtronic’s next-generation E-band GaN technology.

This technology delivers double the output power of existing Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) solutions, providing Starlink with a significant advantage in ground-to-satellite signal strength and thermal management.

5. Strategic Lock-in via Multi-Orbit Applications

The agreement has evolved from simple ground station modules to collaborative efforts in satellite payloads and multiple orbits (LEO, MEO, and GEO).

By embedding Filtronic’s IP into both the ground segment and the actual satellite hardware, SpaceX has created a deep technical interdependency that makes switching suppliers extremely difficult.

The agreement is a symbiotic "growth hack": SpaceX secures a leading-edge RF supply chain for Starlink’s expansion, while Filtronic receives multi-year revenue certainty and a "hallmark" validation that has allowed it to re-rate from a penny stock to a high-frequency technology leader.

This is the best pure-play space stock right now IMO.

$FTC


Summary: Still long TE into Feb 26 earnings but conviction reduced to moderate amid CAO termination, Culper short report, and RWE lawsuit.

This week I questioned $TE's CAO termination.

I pulled every 13F filing and SEC Form 4.

The result? Smart money is completely divided on $TE. Here's the full picture:

THE BULL CASE - Institutions are piling in:

• Vanguard increased their position 58% QoQ - now holds 10.5M shares
• UBS surged 698% QoQ - 4.5M shares
• Goldman Sachs increased 267% - 1.4M shares
• BNP Paribas up 5,484% - 1.5M shares
• 45 NEW institutional positions opened this quarter

THE BEAR CASE - Others are running:

• KIM LLC dumped 81.7% of their position - sold ~5.8M shares in one quarter
• Franklin Resources reduced 11.4%
• Cambridge Investment cut 26.8%
• 6 institutions fully exited
• CAO terminated Feb 5 - no explanation, 3 weeks before earnings

AND THEN THERE'S CULPER RESEARCH (Jan 21 short report):

• Alleges $TE is a "failed EV battery SPAC" masquerading as American solar
• Claims $TE is operationally dependent on Trina Solar (a foreign entity of concern)
• RWE Clean Energy SUED $TE after terminating their offtake agreement Dec 19
• Questions eligibility for 45X tax credits - calls potential guidance a "death blow"
• Stock dropped 12.4% on publication day

Pomerantz Law Firm also has announced an investigation on behalf of $TE investors.

MY TAKE:

108 institutions hold $TE. 45 are new. 26 are increasing.

The Culper research report was a load of FUD, disproven largely by this great community.

Feb 26 earnings will be decisive. I need management to:

1. Address the CAO termination directly
2. Respond to Culper's FEOC allegations
3. Provide clear 2026 revenue guidance
4. Explain the RWE lawsuit and customer diversification plan

I'm still holding. But my conviction has moved from high to moderate.

The data demands honest assessment, not blind loyalty.

$TE


The thesis is intact and accelerating... A pullback to 7–8 would offer a more compelling entry for those not already positioned. For those already in from lower levels, the recent contract momentum supports holding.

Summary: Long OSS: defence AI edge pure-play with intact growth thesis; pullback to $7–8 is better entry, but current holders supported by contract momentum.

THE ULTIMATE $OSS INVESTMENT REPORT

One Stop Systems (Nasdaq: $OSS) is a micro-cap pure-play on rugged edge AI computing, serving primarily the U.S. defense sector. The stock trades at $9.72 with a market cap of $238.29mn, sitting near its 52-week high of $12.75 after rallying from a 52-week low of just $1.85 - a ~470% move over the past year. That rally has been driven by a cascade of defence contract wins, the strategic divestiture of its Bressner subsidiary, and a sharpened focus on high-growth AI/ML edge computing.[1]

1. The Business Model

~~~What OSS Actually Does

OSS designs, manufactures, and sells rugged, high-performance computing (HPC) and storage hardware built for deployment outside the data centre — the "edge" — in environments where heat, vibration, shock, and mission-critical reliability are part of the job.

Think: inside combat vehicles, on naval vessels, aboard reconnaissance aircraft, and in autonomous vehicles.[2][1]

Their tagline internally is "AI on the Fly" — bringing data-centreclass GPU/CPU compute power into a form factor that can survive a battlefield.[3]

~~~Core Product Line

Ruggedised Servers: Custom-built short-depth servers (e.g., 4U SDS) designed for military spec (shock, vibration, extreme temperatures)

PCIe Switch Fabric Accelerators: Ultra-low-latency interconnects that allow GPUs, sensors, and storage to communicate at data-centre speeds inside a rugged chassis; this is OSS’s core differentiating IP

Flash Storage Arrays: Military-grade NVMe storage with hot-swappable canisters for secure data capture and offload (used on the P-8A Poseidon)

GPU-Accelerated Compute Modules: Crew computers and video/sensor concentrators using NVIDIA GPUs for real-time 360° situational awareness in combat vehicles

Storage Acceleration Software: Software layer that manages high-speed data workflows

~~~How They Make Money

Revenue is generated through direct hardware sales to:

U.S. Defence Primes and Government Agencies — the primary and fastest-growing channel. OSS sells directly to the U.S. Navy, U.S. Army, and through integration with Tier 1 defence primes (Safran Federal Systems, unnamed “top-tier” primes)

Commercial OEMs — aerospace in-flight entertainment systems, medical imaging, autonomous vehicles

Distributor Network — for broader commercial reach

The business model is project-based and hardware-centric. OSS works closely with customers on custom engineering to meet specific performance, ruggedisation, and environmental standards, then produces the hardware.

Revenue is transactional (one-time hardware sales) rather than recurring, though multi-year platform wins create repeat order cycles.

~~ The Bressner Divestiture (Dec 2025)

OSS sold its European subsidiary Bressner Technology GmbH to Hiper Euro GmbH on 30 December 2025 for 22.4 million (acquired for just 5.6M in 2018).

Under OSS ownership, Bressner grew annual sales from 18.3M to ~33M.

The divestiture:

Sharpens focus entirely on the core rugged AI/ML edge compute business

Leaves OSS with a significant cash position, no debt, and higher gross margins

Frees capital for organic growth and potential M&A

2025 Full-Year Guidance was raised to 63–65 million consolidated revenue, with OSS segment revenue of 30–32 million.

Management projects 20–30% annual OSS segment growth for 2026.

2. The Industry & Moat

~~~The Edge Computing Market

$OSS operates in the global edge computing market, projected to grow from ~21.4 billion in 2025 to ~28.5 billion in 2026, with a 28% CAGR through 2035.

Specifically, OSS targets the rugged/military subset of this market, where performance at the tactical edge — not in a climate-controlled data centre — is the requirement.

The composable infrastructure market (which Ponto targets) is projected to grow from 5.87 billion in 2024 to 28.44 billion by 2031.

Other notable competitors include ADLINK, Kontron, and Aitech in the rugged edge space, plus HPE and Dell in the broader server market.

~~~Does OSS Have a Moat?

The honest answer: OSS has a narrow but real technological moat, not a wide one.

Moat strengths:
Proprietary PCIe Switch Fabric Technology: The crown jewel. OSS’s high-speed PCIe switch fabric delivers ultra-low-latency data transfer between GPUs, sensors, and storage — critical for real-time sensor fusion in combat vehicles and aircraft.

CEO Mike Knowles has stated: “While competitors work to bring TSN-enabled systems to market, OSS has already fielded both TSN and next-generation PCIe-enabled systems.”

OSS claims its PCIe fabric delivers performance beyond what traditional fabric connections can offer for mission-critical government applications.
 Tier 2 OEM / NPN Elite Partner Status: OSS has direct access to NVIDIA’s latest GPU architectures (H100, Grace CPU) and priority support for the NVIDIA AI software stack. This is a meaningful gatekeeping advantage.

Design Win Lock-In: Once OSS’s hardware is qualified and integrated into a defence platform (e.g., P-8A Poseidon, Stryker), switching costs are enormous. Military qualification testing and certification cycles mean customers are locked in for years — the P-8A programme alone has generated over 65 million in lifetime contracted revenue.

Ponto (PCIe Gen 5 Expansion Platform): Launched in July 2025, Ponto is claimed to be the world’s first PCIe Gen 5 expansion platform supporting 16 GPUs in a 6U rack space with over 16kW of power. This positions OSS in the composable infrastructure market for commercial datacentres as well.

TSN (Time Sensitive Networking) Leadership: OSS has fielded TSN-enabled systems for the Army while competitors are still developing them.

CRADA with USSOCOM: The Cooperative Research and Development Agreement with U.S. Special Operations Command provides embedded R&D relationships within the DoD.

Moat weaknesses:
No meaningful patent portfolio found: The patent search returned results for competitors (Liqid, EMC/Dell) but no patents directly assigned to One Stop Systems. OSS’s advantage appears to be more about systems integration expertise and qualification/certification than hard IP protection.

No recurring revenue/software layer: OSS is pure hardware; no subscription software, no maintenance contracts creating lock-in beyond the platform design win.

Tiny R&D budget: ~1.4M per quarter vs Mercury’s hundreds of millions. OSS cannot out-innovate on raw spend.

Customer concentration risk: Revenue is lumpy and dependent on a handful of large programmes.

Brain Mode Assessment: OSS’s moat is real but fragile. It’s a qualification moat more than a patent moat. Once embedded in a military platform and primes have spent millions integrating and testing hardware, they won’t rip it out. But OSS needs to keep winning new platforms to grow, and each new win is a competitive battle against better-funded rivals.

3. The Catalysts

Q4 2025 Earnings (expected ~18 March 2026): First full quarter post-Bressner divestiture. Market will scrutinise standalone OSS segment profitability and updated 2026 guidance.

Army Combat Vehicle Programme Expansion: The 1.2M pre-production order is a design win — if prototypes pass field testing at GVSC Warren, this opens production orders across Stryker, Bradley, Abrams, and emerging unmanned platforms. This could be a multi-tens-of-millions programme.

Safran Deepening Relationship: Already 1.9M in aggregate orders with revised 7M+ 5-year potential, and OSS is collaborating with additional business units.

P-8A Poseidon Continued Production: With 65M+ lifetime contracted and a production aircraft that will be in service for decades, this is a durable revenue source even without formal subscription revenue.

Potential M&A: The 12.5M capital raise was explicitly for growth and “mergers and acquisitions.” With 28–29M in estimated cash post-Bressner sale and zero debt, OSS has significant firepower relative to its size.

2026 Revenue Growth Guidance: Management projects 20–30% annual OSS segment growth for 2026. Given the contract pipeline, this appears achievable.

Analyst Coverage

Three analysts rate the stock Buy and one rates it Sell. Prior to the recent rally, price targets ranged from 6.00 (Lake Street Capital) to 8.00 (Roth Capital). These targets are now well below the current price, suggesting either upgrades are coming or the stock has run ahead of consensus.

4. The Asymmetry Check

The Bull Case (High Growth Ceiling)
Addressable market is enormous: The edge AI market is projected at 109 billion by 2030 at 23% CAGR. Even a tiny slice of this is transformational for a 258M market cap company.

Defence spending tailwinds: U.S. defence budgets are rising, with particular emphasis on AI/ML modernisation, sensor fusion, and autonomous systems — exactly OSS’s sweet spot.

Sales pipeline reportedly exceeds 1 billion. If even 5–10% converts over the next 2–3 years, that’s 50–100M in new awards against current 30–32M OSS segment revenue.

Revenue is accelerating: Q3 2025 OSS segment revenue grew 43.4% YoY. The company reached near-profitability (263K net income in Q3 2025) for the first time in years.

Post-Bressner focus: A simplified, pure-play story with higher margins (OSS segment gross margin 45.6% in Q3) is more attractive to growth investors.

If OSS executes on 25% revenue growth for the next 3 years, the OSS segment alone could reach ~60–65M by FY2028, implying consolidated revenue (if they make acquisitions) could approach 80–100M. At a reasonable 3–4x P/S for a growing defence tech company, that’s a 240–400M market cap just on the base case.

The Bear Case (Valuation Floor)
Still unprofitable on a TTM basis: EPS of -0.32. The company has been a serial cash burner.
No recurring revenue: Every dollar must be won anew. Revenue is lumpy and project-dependent.
Customer concentration risk: A handful of large programmes (P-8A, Army combat vehicles) drive the growth narrative. A programme delay or cancellation would be devastating.
Tiny R&D budget: 1.4M per quarter is not enough to maintain technological leadership indefinitely against well-funded competitors.
Dilution: The 12.5M raise at 5.00/share added 2.5M shares. Further dilution is possible if OSS pursues M&A.
Valuation has run: At 4.29x P/S on TTM revenue, the stock is no longer cheap in absolute terms. Mercury Systems trades at ~5.7x P/S but has 1.4–1.5B in backlog and 943M in revenue.
Tangible book value: Shareholders’ equity was 26.3M at Q3 2025. Adding the 22.4M Bressner proceeds gets to 48–49M in tangible equity. At 258M market cap, the stock trades at ~5.3x book. If the growth story fails, there’s significant downside to book value.
The Asymmetry Verdict
Brain Mode: Yes, OSS displays characteristics of an asymmetric bet — but the asymmetry has partially compressed after the ~470% run from 52-week lows.

Asymmetry present:
The downside floor is arguably in the 3–5 range (roughly 1x book value with the Bressner cash, plus ongoing P-8A revenue providing baseline support). That’s 50–70% downside from here.

The upside ceiling, if the defence AI edge thesis plays out and OSS captures even modest share of a 100B+ market with improving margins, is materially higher — potentially 20–30+ over 2–3 years (2–3x from current levels).

The reward-to-risk ratio is approximately 2–3:1 on a multi-year timeframe, which qualifies as asymmetric.
But the bet was far more asymmetric 6–12 months ago at 2–4/share. At those levels, the downside was limited to tangible book value while the upside was the same growth story. The risk/reward has tightened considerably.

Key considerations for position sizing:
This is a speculative, high-conviction position — not a core holding
The next 1–2 quarters are critical: Q4 2025 earnings will show the first clean standalone OSS financials, and the Army combat vehicle prototypes will determine whether that programme scales
The 10.5M P-8A award (announced 19 Feb 2026) confirms the pipeline is converting — this is the single most important validation point

Watch for analyst upgrades — the current consensus target of 6.17 is stale and likely to be revised sharply higher

Overall assessment: symmetry. The thesis is intact and accelerating, but price has moved significantly. A pullback to 7–8 would offer a more compelling entry for those not already positioned. For those already in from lower levels, the recent contract momentum supports holding.


Summary: Growth portfolio watchlist of 9 names across AI infrastructure, lidar, drone defense, satellite launch, and BTC amplification.

UPDATED GROWTH PORTFOLIO WATCHLIST

$POET optical interposer platform for AI data centers
$OUST lidar & perception platform for Physical AI
$IREN vertically integrated AI cloud infrastructure
$HIMS converging macro + regulatory tailwinds
$ASYS thermal equipment for semiconductor packaging
$ASST 48% BTC amplification ratio — 13,310 BTC
$ONDS autonomous drone defense
$FLY commercial small-sat launch provider & defense
$ASTS space-based cellular broadband


$OUST lidar & perception platform for Physical AI


$IREN vertically integrated AI cloud infrastructure


$HIMS converging macro + regulatory tailwinds

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic


$ASYS thermal equipment for semiconductor packaging

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'


$ASST 48% BTC amplification ratio — 13,310 BTC


$FLY commercial small-sat launch provider & defense


Summary: Long ASST; author has been pushing it to subscribers and highlights $1.3B market cap as still undervalued relative to BTC accumulation pace.

$ASST is up 5% today. This is a name I have relentlessly been telling my subscribers about. Market cap only $1.3 billion still...

Today's Purchase
$ASST purchased 1,109 bitcoin:native at an average price of ~$76,989 per coin in the four days ended May 22, bringing total holdings to 16,500 BTC - now the seventh-largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder.

Balance Sheet
Cash and cash equivalents rose to $93.3 million, up from $87.3 million. Strive also holds over $50 million in $MSTR $STRC preferred stock.

Accumulation Pace
Strive has grown its treasury by more than 2,200 BTC since January 2026, when it held 12,798 BTC following its acquisition of Semler Scientific.

The $SATA Engine
Strive has funded much of its Bitcoin accumulation through issuances of SATA, allowing it to raise capital for Bitcoin purchases without adding traditional debt to its balance sheet.

$ASST is up 133% in three months.


Summary: Long PL on defense revenue dominance, FCF inflection, and European defense tailwind; same tailwind seen for ONDS and KRKNF.

$PL's revenue mix tells you everything.

Defense & Intelligence: 59% of revenue. Growing 50%+ YoY.
Civil Government: 23%.
Commercial: 18%.

This is a defense company now. Full stop.

And the geography split matters too:
EMEA is 34% of revenue.
North America 43%.

European defense spending is accelerating - Sweden just signed a 9-figure satellite services deal. NATO renewed. Germany expanded.

The same tailwind driving $ONDS, $KRKNF, and the broader defense ecosystem is driving $PL.

Except $PL just crossed the profitability threshold. $53M free cash flow. $640M cash. $900M backlog.

The space-defense convergence isn't coming. It already happened. The revenue mix proves it.

This name is just getting started I believe.


The same tailwind driving $ONDS, $KRKNF, and the broader defense ecosystem is driving $PL.


Summary: Bullish SK Hynix: 62% HBM share + shortage through 2027 make the selloff noise; structural thesis intact.

$000660 down 5% today. It's worth separating the noise from the thesis.

-> SK Hynix holds 62% of global HBM market share.
-> Both Samsung and SK Hynix management have warned shortages persist through 2027. Just look at this graph.

The selloff doesn't touch the structural setup. Short-term consolidation.

🚨 The Korean stock market is collapsing

You won’t believe why this is happening… https://t.co/VdnUV0NMxP


Summary: Added to long TE position on weakness.


$META looking very tempting here for a DCA. Great earnings and Capex is the short-term tax for a long-term gain.

Summary: Bullish META; DCA interest with FUD dismissed — capex seen as short-term cost for long-term gain.

$META looking very tempting here for a DCA.

Lots of FUD on my timeline.

Great earnings and Capex is the short-term tax for a long-term gain.

Going to put together a deeper breakdown later! https://t.co/iJYK2TnQcy


Summary: Long HIVE as asymmetric AI infrastructure micro-cap; short-term bearish on NVDA, AMD, TSM via puts on overextension thesis.

5/ Hive Digital Technologies ($HIVE) — NEW ADD

📊 Position Size: $6.44M (3,391,547 shares)

⚡ The Thesis: The smallest of his infrastructure additions, but highly strategic. HIVE has been aggressively converting its legacy institutional crypto mining infrastructure into high-density HPC facilities to host AI compute workloads.

---

6/ The Big Picture: Situational Awareness LP’s options architecture implies a belief that mega-cap chipmakers are short-term overextended (puts on $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM).

However, his long equity accumulation reveals structural conviction: he is cornering the asymmetric micro-caps that control the power, cooling, and niche physical capacity required to build the $100B+ clusters of tomorrow.

If you track AI infrastructure supply chains, these are the tickers to watch. 🔔


mega-cap chipmakers are short-term overextended (puts on $NVDA, $AMD, $TSM)


Summary: Shares and endorses Lake Street Buy rating on VELO with $18 PT; bullish on America First manufacturing tailwind for the thesis.

Fantastic read for my followers interested in $VELO.

BUY 🟢 $18 PT

The emphasis on the macro is an important point.

Like many other FinX names, the America First manufacturing policies and attitude of the government will be crucial to the success of these thesis’.

$VELO: Lake Street - Recap Of Investor Meetings And Site Visit, Significant Ramp Still On Track; Reiterating Buy Rating And $18 PT

Our Take - We recently hosted investor meetings and a site visit with VeloD and came away feeling encouraged the Company is building a pipeline to https://t.co/YGh8WrrYfK


Summary: Bullish on RKLB (pullback overreaction), PL (satellite data thesis playing out), NBIS (AI infra picks-and-shovels), and ONDS (drone demand) heading into mid-week.

BULLISH on this setup heading into mid-week 🔥

Full watchlist check-in:

$RKLB - Down from $99 to $76. Overreaction. $816M defense contract, 80 launches completed, Q4 earnings Feb 26.

$PL - Hit the $21 earnout milestone. RPO up 371% YoY. Revenue up 33%. The satellite data thesis is playing out in real time.

$NBIS - AI infrastructure sleeper. While everyone panics about software stocks, the picks-and-shovels plays are quietly building.

$ONDS -  Drone demand thesis intact. Patient money wins.

Small caps are leading 2026 for a reason. These are the stocks built for this rotation.


Hit the $21 earnout milestone. RPO up 371% YoY. Revenue up 33%. The satellite data thesis is playing out in real time.


AI infrastructure sleeper. While everyone panics about software stocks, the picks-and-shovels plays are quietly building.


Drone demand thesis intact. Patient money wins.


Summary: Continuing to DCA into Bitcoin; bullish stance despite uncertainty.

@BitcoinTeacher_ I'd rather be delusional now and right later! Continuing to DCA.

X is tough.

If I’m buying here I’m a delusional bull who is gonna lose more money when it drops to 30k.

If I wait to buy here I’m a delusional bear who gave in to FUD and am going to miss the bull run.

If I invest in a 401k I’m a slave to the Fiat system that prints money to


Summary: Both IREN and CIFR have more downside ahead, rejected at key fib resistance with room to hit supports in low volume.

For me, $IREN and $CIFR have more downside before a recovery.

Rejected at key resistance fib’s and lots of room to hit key supports in a low volume environment.


Summary: Bullish KTOS ($74 target) and RKLB ($70 target); drone economy catalysts building but the main move hasn't started yet.

5 weeks ago I mapped the drone economy.

Since then:
— $KTOS Valkyrie: Program of Record, $231M Marine Corps contract
— $RKLB: $816M satellite deal + $190M hypersonics contract
— DoD drone budget: $33B allocated, $1.5T proposed for 2027
— Iran conflict accelerated procurement across every name on the list

$KTOS $74. $RKLB $70.  The map was early. The move hasn't started.


Summary: Bullish OUST; calls it a generational company after spotting its LiDAR on a Boston Dynamics robot in a Micron factory.

$OUST x $MU?

In a recent video of the new $MU factory, you can see here a Boston Dynamics robot equipped with $OUST LiDAR. https://t.co/RqOGQ5gxeT

---

Shoutout to @MartinMraz4879 for finding this! And to @usppdd for always being the best source of updates for $OUST.

This truly is a generational company.


$OUST hits $50! We're only getting started.

Summary: Bullish OUST after hitting $50; author claims the move is just beginning.

$OUST hits $50! We’re only getting started. https://t.co/Dzt6pqdpN0


Summary: Bullish ONDS into March 25 earnings: Q4 beat, Mistral merger closed, $1B+ DOD contracts, $170-180M 2026 guidance reiterated pre-acquisitions.

8 days until $ONDS reports earnings.

Quick reminder of what's already confirmed:
→ Q4 revenue 3x sequential (beat)
→ Mistral merger closed — now a US defense prime
→ $1.5B+ cash on hand
→ $1B+ in DOD contracts (additive to existing guidance)
→ 2026 guidance $170–180M reiterated BEFORE new acquisitions

March 25 is the most important call this company has ever had.  Not because the numbers are in question — but because this is the first time management gets to lay out the COMBINED entity.

Mistral + Ondas + AIROBOTICS + OAS.

I'll be breaking down the call live. ⚡


UK and European investors finally have a dedicated memory ETF. $DRAM ($D4RM in GBP) listed on the LSE this week. ISA eligible. SIPP eligible. Good to see UK investors get access to this corner of the semiconductor market.

Summary: Highlights DRAM ETF listing on LSE as a new way for UK/European investors to play the memory sector; implicitly bullish.

UK and European investors finally have a dedicated memory ETF.

$DRAM ($D4RM in GBP) listed on the LSE this week. ISA eligible. SIPP eligible.

$DRAM is up 177% since listing in April. UK investors previously had no clean way to play this and were left on the sidelines.

The holdings:
Kioxia - 14.88%
$MU  - 13.59%
$SNDK  - 12.60%
SK Hynix - 11.40%
Samsung - 10.07%
11 names total. Pure-play criteria: ≥50% revenues from memory and storage.

Good to see UK investors get access to this corner of the semiconductor market.
$MU $SNDK


Summary: Buy the dip across crypto mining/infrastructure names BITF, NBIS, CLSK, IREN, CIFR amid market selloff.

When their is blood on the streets…

Buy the dip.

$BITF $NBIS $CLSK $IREN $CIFR https://t.co/d8vVQNIVC2


Summary: Bullish POET as the uncontrolled substrate in Marvell's photonic stack post-Celestial AI acquisition; also implicitly bullish MRVL on the deal.

Marvell $MRVL spent $3.25B to acquire Celestial AI.

Celestial AI's ENTIRE Photonic architecture runs on $POET's Optical Interposer.

Marvell has the DSPs. The switch ASICs. The AI networking stack.

The one thing they don't control?

The substrate everything sits on.

$POET. $1B market cap. Full thesis below👇


$POET. $1B market cap. Full thesis below


Summary: Bullish KRKNF on re-certification moat, 65% guided growth, and four high-demand defence/autonomy verticals; screen misread a one-time charge as operating loss.

New coverage. $KRKNF - Kraken Robotics.

Four things the market is paying up for right now - defence autonomy, undersea warfare, the uncrewed-systems buildout, and anything with an Anduril connection.

There's one small-cap supplying hardware into all four. The screen files it as a tiny Canadian "marine robotics" company.

Here's the problem. Pull up the Q1 print and you see a net loss, and a stock that fell on the day. Loss-making micro-cap, move on. That's the trap.

The loss is mostly a deal cost - roughly C$2.8m of one-time Covelya transaction and restructuring expense. Strip it out and Kraken was adjusted-profitable on the quarter, with revenue up 35% and product revenue up 50%. The screen read a one-time acquisition charge as an operating result, and the stock sold off into record orders.

So what does it actually sell?

Defence autonomy. Its pressure-tolerant SeaPower batteries are designed into uncrewed platforms like Anduril's Ghost Shark and HII's REMUS. Once a battery sets a vehicle's centre of gravity and buoyancy, switching suppliers means re-certifying the entire hull - years and millions. Revenue compounds with platform production, not press releases.

Seabed warfare. Its KATFISH active-towed sonar runs high-speed mine countermeasures, and it just signed SEFINE SISAM to integrate KATFISH into an end-to-end uncrewed mine-hunting workflow for navies.

The battery itself. Pressure-tolerant cells deliver ~200% more energy density and ~46% less weight per kWh than legacy designs, tested to 6,000m depth. Endurance is the constraint every deep-sea autonomous programme hits, and this is the answer.

Subsea services. 3D at Depth LiDAR scans infrastructure to 4,000m at millimetric resolution; PanGeo images buried cable for offshore wind. Recurring, higher-margin survey revenue underneath the hardware.

Now the valuation.

$KRKNF trades north of 20x trailing revenue. This isn't cheap. Combined Kraken-plus-Covelya backlog now sits at ~C$262m, and standalone 2026 guidance is C$165-175m - over 65% growth at the midpoint, before the deal even closes.

But it isn't a clean story. Gross margin slipped from 63% to 56% as the company spends ahead of an H2 ramp, and the C$615m Covelya deal is being funded with C$402.5m of new stock. You're paying a premium multiple into an integration.

A small-cap supplier with a re-certification-grade moat and 65% guided growth was never going to trade like a value stock here.

The only question that matters on $KRKNF is whether the moat and the growth compound into a 20x-sales multiple before integration friction tests it.

$KRKNF $PNG.NE


At $67, this might be the last time you see $RKLB under $70 before new highs this year. Position: Long

Summary: Long RKLB at $67 ahead of earnings; expects new highs this year on Space Force contract, SDA backlog, Q3 beat, and analyst upgrades.

$RKLB earnings in 9 days and nobody is talking about this setup.

1. Down 32% from ATH of $99.60
2. $816M Space Force contract - largest in company history
3. $1.3B+ in SDA backlog
4. Q3 beat estimates by 70% (EPS -$0.03 vs -$0.10 expected)
5. 15 analysts: average PT $72.92. Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight
6. Neutron test flight on track for 2026

At $67, this might be the last time you see $RKLB under $70 before new highs this year .

Full pre-earnings deep dive dropping TOMORROW.

You don't want to miss it.

$RKLB | Position: Long


The world's richest man is calling for domestic solar. And you don't own $TE ?! Wake up.

Summary: Bullish on TE as a domestic solar play in response to Elon Musk calling for domestic solar production.

Oh my god.

The world’s richest man is calling for domestic solar.

And you don’t own $TE ?!

Wake up.

@AutismCapital Importation of solar cells is very expensive due to tariffs, but production domestically can and will be done


This is HUGE and here's why nobody is connecting the dots... Can anything stop $ONDS right now?

Summary: Bullish ONDS on Sentrycs German police contract, growing C-UAS catalyst stack, and stock still 40% off highs.

🚨 BREAKING: $ONDS subsidiary Sentrycs just secured a German State Police contract for counter-drone technology.

This is HUGE and here’s why nobody is connecting the dots:

Sentrycs uses “Cyber over RF” - no jamming, no collateral disruption.

It takes CONTROL of unauthorized drones and lands them safely.

German police are already using it to secure large-scale events.

They’re also launching Sentrycs Scout - a portable, man-carried counter-UAS system - at Enforce Tac in Germany THIS WEEK.

The handheld C-UAS market is projected to TRIPLE by 2030.

TAM: $9.8 BILLION.

Germany reported 1,000+ suspicious drone flights near military facilities and airports in 2025. The demand is real and accelerating.

This adds to the $ONDS catalyst stack:
✅ $30M+ Israel demining contract
✅ Asia-Pacific defense contract
✅ Rotron UK acquisition
✅ 2026 revenue target raised 25%
✅ $1.5B pro-forma cash
✅ NOW: German State Police contract

Stock is still down 40% from highs at ~$9.

Can anything stop $ONDS right now?


Summary: Bullish RKLB pre-earnings: market undervalues it as a defense prime with $1.3B SDA contracts, HASTE hypersonic monopoly, and Space Systems now 60%+ of revenue.

Yesterday I dropped my full $RKLB pre-earnings thesis. Thousands of you read it.

Here's the part that matters most:
At $67, the market is pricing $RKLB as a rocket company. It's not just that.

It's a defence prime with a launch vehicle attached.
→ $1.3B in SDA contracts locked
→ HASTE hypersonic: zero competitors
→ Space Systems is now 60%+ of revenue

Earnings in 7 days. Full report below 👇

---

Full report HERE:
https://t.co/lLqc1b7L7V


Surely this has got to run soon? I'm now very interested in opening a position at this range.

Summary: Bullish SATS at current range; SpaceX stake alone exceeds market cap, implying HughesNet+Boost Mobile are valued at negative $2.5B.

$SATS is down 12% today.

Current market cap: $32.9B
SpaceX stake (2% of $1.77T): $35.4B

$SATS is now trading at a 7% discount to its $SPCX shares.

The market is valuing HughesNet + Boost Mobile at negative $2.5B. Incredible.

Surely this has got to run soon? I’m now very interested in opening a position at this range.

$SATS $SPCX


$8.50 broken $TE. The bears are in shock.

Summary: Bullish on TE; $8.50 level broken to the upside, bears caught off guard.

$8.50 broken $TE

The bears are in shock. https://t.co/NHZHugsIni


Summary: Bullish NBIS; stock has significant upside to catch up with existing price targets.

@aleabitoreddit BULLISH, $NBIS has a lot to do to catch up with the price targets...

https://t.co/lC3PWOENW3

After seeing $IREN report earnings with no new hyperscaler deals.

And seeing hyperscaler capex exponentially increasing:

-> It looks more and more likely $NBIS has something cooking for earnings through process of elimination.

Few other TLDR tailwinds past few weeks:

- Older https://t.co/Yhrahjsk4z


Summary: Ranks IONQ, INFQ, QBTS as top quantum pure-plays on commercial traction, tech moat, and financial stability; bullish on all three vs market consensus.

5 quantum pure-plays.

most people own the wrong ones.

here’s how they actually rank - and why the gaps between them are bigger than the market thinks. 🧵

---

T2) i ranked them on three things most quantum content ignores:

1. commercial traction
2. technological moat
3. financial stability

qubit count and press releases don’t make a business. here’s what does.

---

T3

1. $IONQ

not just because of 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity.

the real story is the $1.8B acquisition of SkyWater Technology - a semiconductor foundry.

that’s vertical integration. supply chain control. hardware de-risked.

$3.5B in cash and actively consolidating the market while others are still in testing.

---

T4
2. $INFQ

the most misunderstood name in the sector.

quantum sensors and optical clocks already deployed with:
1. NASA
2. U.S. Army
3. U.K. Government
4. Nvidia

this isn’t speculative. these are real contracts with real institutions.

neutral-atom architecture also gives it the most scalable path to fault-tolerant computing.

---

T5
3. $QBTS

the most commercially validated name most people are sleeping on.

100+ paying customers. 20+ Forbes Global 2000 companies. $25M revenue. 83% gross margins.

2026 acquisition of Quantum Circuits makes it the only dual-platform quantum company in the world.

the gap between #3 and #4 is larger than most realise.


this isn't speculative. these are real contracts with real institutions


the most commercially validated name most people are sleeping on


Summary: Author endorses Oppenheimer's raised PT on ONDS, calling it bullish on Roboteam acquisition synergies.

Oppenheimer raised its price target on Ondas Holdings $ONDS to $12, highlighting strong synergy in the ~$80M Roboteam acquisition, which adds proven UGVs and an AI command HUB that integrates with ONDS’s drone and counter-UAS systems; analysts expect meaningful revenue https://t.co/hTXp2Td8ZN


Summary: Bullish ARBE into Q1 earnings: market underprices L4 AV win, NVIDIA Hyperion 10 inclusion, 8–13x revenue ramp, and defense catalysts.

$ARBE reports Q1 2026 earnings Thursday pre-market. 8:30am ET.

Revenue estimate: ~$479K - up over 1,000% year over year.
EPS estimate: -$0.07. Net loss has narrowed 3 quarters in a row.

What the market is ignoring:

→ A Chinese state-owned automaker selected HiRain + Arbe's Ultra HD Radar for a Level 4 AV program. Start of production: December 2026. Thousands of vehicles hitting market in 2027.

→ Arbe is the only listed radar company in NVIDIA's Hyperion 10 AV ecosystem with an array larger than 32×32 - the minimum resolution for 130kph highway autonomy.

→ 2026 guidance: $4–6M revenue. That's 8–13x the revenue run rate from Q4 2025.

→ Defense and homeland security is now a primary 2026 revenue driver alongside automotive - through Sensrad.

The market is pricing this like a zero-revenue speculative. Three catalysts are scheduled for the next 7 months.

$ARBE


Summary: Bullish on Metaplanet OTC shares on strong BTC accumulation and 568% YTD BTC yield.

Metaplanet has acquired 4279 BTC during Q4 2025 for $451.06 million at ~$105,412 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 568.2% YTD 2025.  As of 12/30/2025, we hold 35,102 $BTC acquired for ~$3.78 billion at ~$107,606 per bitcoin. $MTPLF $MPJPY https://t.co/AFRldH4hVI


This is our catalyst for $9.50–$10.00 by Friday. ... TE can rally another 10-15% before hitting technical overbought conditions. ... the setup is textbook bullish

Summary: Bullish TE with $9.50–$10.00 target by Friday on short-squeeze tail, institutional accumulation, dark pool buying, and healthy technicals.

$TE : The week ahead. CRITICAL UPDATES.

$TE investors - this is here to give you an overview of what to expect this week.

Pre-Market Update (Monday, Jan 26 - 6:30 AM ET)

Pre-Market Price: $8.45

Gap up confirmation: Friday closed at $8.50; premarket is holding at $8.45, ready to push higher.

Signal: The bulls are in control. No panic gap-down reversal.

II. Short Interest & Squeeze Status: CRITICAL UPDATE

The Data Tells A Story Of Institutional Accumulation

What This Means

🚨 The squeeze is 75-85% complete. Shorts have covered the bulk of their positions, but 13.98% of the float is still short. The remaining shorts are:

1. Weak-handed: The ones who didn't panic-cover.
- These are retail shorts or late-entry hedge funds.
2. Trapped: Shorts who covered partway and re-shorted higher (betting on a reversal).

The problem: At 0.68 days to cover, any spike in volume liquidates them instantly. This is our catalyst for $9.50–$10.00 by Friday.

Critical Signal: Off-exchange short volume at 32.64% is extremely high.

This suggests:
1. Large institutions are routing orders through dark pools to avoid moving the public price.
2. When they accumulate enough, they'll execute a large market order → price spike → short squeeze → margin calls → covering cascade.

Institutional Buying Confirmation

1. TRINA Solar added 4.27M shares (Jan 23 filing, dated 1/26 update):
Previous: 48.88M shares (8.75% ownership)
Current: 53.15M shares (19.60% ownership)
Change: +$4.27M shares (+6.52% ownership)

NEW POSITIONS (Green Rows):

1. Farther Finance Advisors: +100 shares
2. Stone House Investment Management: +2,500 shares
3. Westfuller Advisors: +3,232 shares (+193.82% value change) → BUYING DIP
4. Rathbone Brothers: +10,000 shares (neutral)
5. Apella Capital: +20,655 shares

CLOSED POSITIONS (Red Rows):
1. FSM Wealth Advisors: -100% (exit)
2. Ogorek Anthony: -100% (exit)

Interpretation:

More buys than sells. This is institutional confidence.

Westfuller Advisors buying at +193% gain = conviction at higher prices.

Small positions being added (not massive, but steady accumulation).

Chart Analysis:

1. Pre-Market Hourly
Current: $8.45

2. 1-Hour Chart

High: $8.75

Low: $8.50

RSI: 51.28 (not overbought)

Stochastic: 66.41 / 76.34 (approaching overbought, but not yet danger zone)

Pattern: Consolidation above $8.50. The stock is building a springboard for a breakout.

Key Signal: The hourly is NOT exhausted. RSI at 51 and Stochastic below 80 means room to run to $9.00-$9.20 before any pullback.

3. Daily Chart

Close (Friday): $8.50 (+1.55%)

High: $9.29 (intraday spike)
Low: $8.08
Volume: 23.39M (high, confirming institutional buying)

RSI: 64.06 (healthy, not yet overbought at 70+)
Stochastic: 39.87 / 41.10 (NOT overbought, still in accumulation phase)

Critical Insight: The daily RSI is 64 and Stochastic is below 50. This means TE can rally another 10-15% before hitting technical overbought conditions.

Friday's Action (Jan 24): The stock opened at $8.75, spiked to $9.29 mid-day (short covering), pulled back to $8.50 by close (profit-taking/consolidation), and then rallied back to $8.50 pre-open.

Implication: This is a healthy consolidation pattern, not a reversal. The bulls are testing support and moving on.

4. Weekly Chart

Close: $8.50 (+4.04%)
High: $9.29
Volume: 140.55M (highest in months)
RSI: 74.64 (overbought, but sustained above 70 = strong trend)
Stochastic: 68.16 / 67.11 (both above 50, confirming uptrend)

Pattern: The weekly chart shows a "V-shaped recovery" from $7.24 (Jan 21 low) to $9.29 (Jan 24 high). This is textbook short-squeeze behavior.

The volume burst (140.55M) is 5-10x normal weekly volume. This validates institutional accumulation.

This is institutional lock-up. Shares are NOT being sold into the market; they're being accumulated. This removes supply and creates a vacuum that pushes prices higher.

Final Verdict
TE is in a "Goldilocks" setup for the next 8 weeks:

✅ Squeeze Tail Ending: Shorts at 13.98% float, borrow fee collapsed = covering phase active.
✅ Institutional Lock-Up: TRINA (19.6%), Encompass (20%), Morgan Stanley (5.8%) = 45.4% of float owned by long-term holders.
✅ Dark Pool Accumulation: 32.64% of short volume in dark pools = large buyers moving covertly.
✅ Technical Setup: RSI at 64 (daily), Stochastic at 40 = plenty of room before overbought.
✅ Catalysts Stacking: Tax credit clarity, analyst upgrades, earnings, sector rotation.

This is not financial advice, but the setup is textbook bullish. 🚀


In February I called $NBIS the picks-and-shovels play for the AI boom. Today $META just signed a $27 BILLION deal with them... Total contracted partnerships: ~$51 BILLION. When I posted my thesis, the backlog was ~$22B. It just more than doubled. The constraint was never demand. It was capacity. And they just solved it.

Summary: Long NBIS: META $27B deal doubles backlog to ~$51B total contracted partnerships; capacity constraint solved, thesis intact.

In February I called $NBIS the picks-and-shovels play for the AI boom.

Today $META just signed a $27 BILLION deal with them.

Let that sink in.
$12B dedicated capacity — one of the first large-scale NVIDIA Vera Rubin deployments
$15B additional compute across upcoming clusters
5-year agreement starting early 2027

This is ON TOP of:
→ $19B Microsoft deal
→ $3B original Meta deal
→ $2B Nvidia investment

Total contracted partnerships: ~$51 BILLION.

When I posted my thesis, the backlog was ~$22B.

It just more than doubled.

The constraint was never demand. It was capacity. And they just solved it.

$NBIS

THE ULTIMATE NEBIUS ( $NBIS ) INVESTMENT THESIS

Why I believe $NBIS is a highly asymmetric AI infrastructure bet:

1. Multi‑billion, long-term AI deals locked in
2. Massive revenue ramp potential
3. Structural AI compute shortage means every MW of capacity is getting absorbed at https://t.co/sRAyYCTcI5


Summary: Author added to ONDS position on the dip; ongoing long with accumulate-below-$8 thesis.

Added to $ONDS during the dip!!! https://t.co/4QXkfEgFIs

THE ULTIMATE ONDAS HOLDINGS ( $ONDS  ) INVESTMENT THESIS REPORT

Please like, comment and share to help my page grow!

Executive Thesis
$ONDS is operating at inflection point with 600% YoY Q3 2025 revenue growth

My actions (NFA): ACCUMULATE below $8.00 | HOLD current positions https://t.co/xmhSjntOvl


Summary: Bullish ELMT as a domestic-manufacturing reshoring play across critical materials and high-power RF, with ARC Sentry license expanding its EMP portfolio.

$ELMT up 18% today after its Microwave Techniques subsidiary licensed the ARC Sentry arc detector from Brookhaven National Laboratory.

This isn't an acquisition or a contract win. It's a non-exclusive copyright license - but it grants global rights to manufacture and commercialize the platform outright.

ARC Sentry detects an electrical arc and triggers a protective shutdown in under 3 microseconds. In high-power RF systems, an arc that propagates destroys hardware - sub-microsecond detection is the difference between an interlock and a replacement.

The platform scales to 24 monitoring channels across waveguide and coaxial systems, with fiber-optic pickups built for tight spaces.

It was originally developed for Brookhaven's NSLS-II synchrotron. This is national-lab R&D being productized by a commercial manufacturer.
This directly expands Elmet's RF protection and monitoring portfolio - a high-speed arc detection capability added to an existing high-power microwave product line, not a standalone bet.

Elmet has two main segments. Critical Materials (tungsten, moly, niobium, tantalum) and Engineered Microwave Products.

The CMC side is the China-substitution story - domestic refractory metals for defense and semis.

The EMP side is high-power RF for defense, medical, and scientific. ARC Sentry lands here, slotting into a portfolio it can cross-sell into.

$ELMT is a domestic-manufacturing play across two materials-and-RF supply chains the US wants reshored.

$ELMT


$ONDS didn't buy revenue. They bought the distribution channel for their entire autonomous systems portfolio — directly into U.S. military programs. I hold $ONDS.

Summary: Long ONDS: Mistral acquisition adds DOD access, $1B+ IDIQ contracts, and is additive to 2026 guidance of $170-180M.

Everyone saw the $ONDS headlines yesterday.

Two press releases. Earnings beat. Mistral acquisition.

But nobody is explaining why Mistral changes everything.

The #1 barrier for small defense companies isn't technology. It's ACCESS.

Getting on DOD contract vehicles takes years. Prime contractor certifications take decades. Compliance infrastructure costs hundreds of millions.

Mistral has all of it. Already built. Already certified. Prime on $1B+ of IDIQ contracts. U.S. Army. USSOCOM.

$ONDS didn't buy revenue. They bought the distribution channel for their entire autonomous systems portfolio — directly into U.S. military programs.

And yesterday's earnings PR said 2026 guidance of $170-180M is "before the impact of any new acquisitions."

Mistral is additive.

I hold $ONDS.


Summary: TE holding Fibonacci support after a healthy pullback; bullish lean.

$TE support on the fib holding lovely. Healthy pullback. @accounting_ds https://t.co/y1MG8e6kO9


Summary: Firmly bullish ARBE on NVDA radar platform integration, consumer demand data, and executive incentive alignment ahead of 2027 revenue ramp; robotics is the next theme.

$ARBE is green today. I now firmly believe robotics is the next theme to run here.

what has changed since my original $ARBE article?

1. Significant Technical Price Recovery

This significantly reduces immediate pressure for a dilutive reverse stock split, although the company must still hold the $1.00 level for ten consecutive business days to officially regain NASDAQ compliance.

2. Acceleration of $NVDA Platform Integration

On May 1, 2026, the company unveiled a new radar platform that combines Arbe’s ultra-HD technology with NVIDIA’s accelerated computing specifically for "eyes-off" driving at highway speeds. This update is a critical step beyond the initial partnership announcement, as it includes the readiness of an "automotive-grade" system for direct integration into Tier 1 perception stacks.

3. Quantified Consumer Demand for "Eyes-Off" Technology

An April 23, 2026, proprietary survey conducted by Arbe provided new data-backed support for the company’s market positioning. The findings revealed that 69% of consumers would accelerate vehicle purchases to access "eyes-off" driving, and 73% would switch brands to obtain the technology. This survey provides a specific demand-side justification for why OEMs are prioritizing high-resolution radar over vision-only systems, strengthening the bull case for Arbe’s native 4D resolution.

4. Operational Retention and Executive Incentives

Recent SEC Form 4 filings indicate a continued focus on talent retention through the transition period. On April 22, 2026, Chief Marketing Officer Shlomit Hacohen was granted 85,000 RSUs, scheduled to vest in April 2027. Similar option grants were disclosed for Director Eldar Yonina and VP of Product Hareli Ori Moshe. These grants align executive incentives with the critical 2027 revenue ramp-up phase.

read the article below.

i covered $ARBE last month.

200,000 people read it. it's up 44% in the past month.

looking for robotics exposure?

1. Arbe's Phoenix chipset delivers 2,304 virtual channels - 100x the resolution of legacy radar. It is the perception layer that makes autonomous vehicles and https://t.co/UKpJk97i0d


Acceleration of $NVDA Platform Integration


Summary: Initiated long position in $TE; bullish on US energy for AI buildout.

New position 🚨

I am delighted to announce that in the last couple of days I have purchased my first shares of $TE.

American-made energy for the AI race.

The Chinese can produce energy much cheaper than the US. That money printer’s gunna have to invest in great US companies to break this dominance!

$TE GANG


Summary: Bought IREN heavily on the dip; bullish on the upside thesis unchanged.

“Why are you bullish on $IREN right now?”

It’s upside is amazing.

Even the lowest price target has amazing upside at over 60%.

And has anything changed about the thesis: Nope

Did you buy any $IREN on this dip? https://t.co/XCiJ7GTIcZ


Summary: Highest-conviction long on CIFR: AWS/Google-backed AI/HPC pivot, ~$8-9B contracted revenue, base-case valuation mid-30s/share.

--- THE ULTIMATE $CIFR INVESTMENT HANDBOOK---

🧵 Why $CIFR is my highest‑conviction infra play for the next cycle.

Thread below 📷 Would love to discuss with everyone further.

Cipher Mining started life as a pure Bitcoin miner – but the real story now is its pivot into AI and high‑performance compute. Between a 15‑year, 300 MW lease with AWS, a 10‑year AI hosting deal backed by Google/Fluidstack, and a 1 GW West Texas build‑out via the Colchis JV, CIFR is quietly stacking roughly 8–9B of long‑dated, contracted AI/HPC revenue on top of its mining business.

In the report, I walk through:
- How post‑halving mining economics forced this pivot and why AI hosting earns more per MW than $BTC alone

- Q3 ’25 numbers (72M revenue, 41M adj. earnings) and why fixed‑rent hyperscaler deals change the risk profile

- A simple valuation framework that gets you to mid‑30s per share in a base case if execution is even halfway competent

If you care about the intersection of Bitcoin, AI compute, and ultra‑cheap Texas power, this is probably the single name you should understand before the next leg up.

LFG 🚀

~ Thanks @mikealfred for the find!

---

@LandoInvests @Leo_Traydes @CarsonTalkMoney @CaesarCapitalz @moninvestor @accounting_ds @WheelieInvestor @babyfolio  would love to know what you fellas think!


If you care about the intersection of Bitcoin, AI compute, and ultra‑cheap Texas power, this is probably the single name you should understand before the next leg up


Summary: Adding to long position in UiPath.

Buying more $PATH @CaesarCapitalz https://t.co/hIO0DrvEab


Summary: Expects BTC to reach $700k–$1M in the next 5 years, well above the $200k target in the parent.

@Leo_Traydes Bit conservative mate? More likely to be 700k-1million

Do you genuinely think Bitcoin $BTC won’t reach 200k in the next 5 years?


Summary: Predicts CIFR will drop below $15 today.

$CIFR going sub $15 again today.

Bookmark it. https://t.co/6sDaDj5qAP


Summary: Shares Jefferies downgrade of FSLR to Hold, PT cut to $260 on limited booking visibility, project cancellations, and tariff headwinds into 2026.

$FSLR OBLITERATED

Jefferies downgrades rating to "hold" from "buy"; cuts PT to $260 from $269

** "We are cautious on FSLR in 2026 due to limited booking visibility and emerging strategic questions," says Jefferies

** Analysts remain more cautious in the near term due to recent project cancellations and lag in translation of policy tailwinds into higher pricing for FSLR

** Brokerage expects tariff-related margin and volume impact to international facilities to remain a "pain point"

** Thirty-four of 41 brokerages rate the stock "buy" or higher, six "hold" and one "sell"; median PT is $284.50- data compiled by LESG

** In 2025, FSLR rose 48.2%


$ONDS is quietly becoming a national defense prime contractor. Already tracking $170-180M revenue target for 2026 → Backlog up 180% in 6 weeks to $65.3M

Summary: Bullish ONDS: defense prime contractor thesis, $170-180M 2026 revenue target, backlog up 180% in 6 weeks; NATO/APAC/Israel contracts active.

$ONDS is quietly becoming a national defense prime contractor.

This week alone:
🤖 $20M purchase order for an autonomous border protection program
📊 Thousands of drones, AI command-and-control, multi-year phased deployment
💵 Already tracking $170-180M revenue target for 2026 → Backlog up 180% in 6 weeks to $65.3M
 🇮🇱 NATO, European airports, APAC defense, Israel-Syria demining - all active

This was Layer 1 of my drone economy report. But there's a lot more to dig into.  Earnings March 18.

✅ Full $ONDS deep dive coming this weekend.


Summary: Skeptical NVDA can sustain upward momentum; crowded trade, sovereign AI and neoclouds exhausted, no new buyers visible yet.

It is essential that Vera Rubin delivers a non-CSP story tomorrow at earnings.

HSBC are being polite about it but the read is clear in this analysis.

->Sovereign AI is exhausted
-> Neoclouds are exhausted

A beat and raise doesn't move the stock anymore.

$NVDA has been a consensus crowded trade for 18 months. The next leg needs a genuinely new buyer.

I don't see one yet but I'm not going to doubt Jensen's ability to pull something out of the bag.

HSBC Raises $NVDA PT to $325 from $295 - Buy; ER Preview

Analyst comments: "At its upcoming 1QFY27 results announcement on May 20, we expect NVIDIA to report 1QFY27 revenue of USD81.1 billion, 4%/3% higher than management guidance and Visible Alpha consensus estimates of USD78.0


Summary: Bullish ONDS on counter-drone tech moat (Sentrycs Cyber-over-RF) and international contract wins; still undervalued after hitting $10.

Yesterday I posted the $ONDS catalyst stack.

Thousands of you saw it. Here's what most people missed:

Sentrycs — their counter-drone subsidiary — uses "Cyber over RF."

 It doesn't jam drones. It takes control of them.

That's why Germany just signed. That's why Asia-Pacific signed. That's why Israel signed.

The technology is the moat. The market sees this. Hence we hit $10 yesterday.

Still undervalued IMO. $ONDS BULLISH.


The acquisition of BIRD Aerosystems is a transformative milestone for $ONDS, marking its official entry into the high-stakes airborne missile protection and ISR markets.

Summary: Bullish ONDS: BIRD acquisition transforms it from speculative drone co to defense powerhouse with multi-domain capabilities, $1B war chest, and massive revenue catalyst.

The acquisition of BIRD Aerosystems is a transformative milestone for $ONDS, marking its official entry into the high-stakes airborne missile protection and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) markets.

Here is the AI breakdown of why this is a massive win for the company and its shareholders:

🚁 1. Massive Expansion of Footprint
BIRD Aerosystems isn't a startup; it’s a global leader with systems installed on over 700 aircraft across 40+ different types. For $ONDS, this isn't just "buying tech"—it’s buying an established, worldwide installation base and a reputation for protecting heads of state and military personnel.

🛡 2. Owning the "Kill Chain"
Ondas has been systematically acquiring the components needed to become a Defense Prime. While their Airobotics and Iron Drone units handle autonomous ground and low-altitude threats, BIRD brings:
• AMPS (Airborne Missile Protection Systems): Industry-leading DIRCM (Directional Infrared Counter Measures) technology.
• ASIO ISR: Advanced intelligence and surveillance sensors for manned and unmanned platforms.
• Strategic Synergy: This creates a "multi-domain" defense shield, allowing Ondas to offer protection from the ground to the stratosphere.

💰 3. Financial Scale & Revenue Catalysts
This news comes immediately on the heels of the $175M Mistral merger. Together, these moves represent a radical shift in Ondas' revenue profile:
• The "Mistral Factor": Analyst estimates suggest the Mistral deal alone could add $100M+ to the previous 2026 revenue guidance of $170M–$180M.
• Direct Access: Through Mistral (a U.S. Prime Contractor) and now BIRD, Ondas can bid on massive, multi-year Department of Defense (DoD) and international defense contracts that were previously out of reach.

🚀 4. The $1 Billion War Chest
The significance of this acquisition is amplified by Ondas' recent $1 billion capital raise (January 2026). Unlike many small-cap tech companies, $ONDS is "heavily capitalized," allowing it to swallow industry leaders like BIRD and Mistral without breaking its balance sheet.

📈 The Big Picture for Investors
For $ONDS, the narrative has shifted from "speculative drone company" to "Burgeoning Defense Powerhouse." By integrating BIRD's missile-warning sensors and DIRCM tech into its autonomous ecosystem, Ondas is positioning itself as one of the few providers capable of delivering a unified, AI-driven defense architecture for the modern era of warfare.

Summary: The BIRD acquisition is the "airborne" piece of the puzzle that makes Ondas a true top-to-bottom player in the global defense market.

Ondas acquired BIRD Aerosystems, adding airborne missile protection and ISR technologies deployed on 700+ aircraft across 40+ aircraft types supporting global defense operators. $ONDS

https://t.co/V9JZJM70gW


Summary: Long ONDS; author's investment thesis concludes price is going higher.

My investment thesis for $ONDS.

Hint: We're going HIGHER.

https://t.co/S3G1sSwYA6

THE ULTIMATE $ONDS INVESTMENT REPORT

$ONDS presents a truly asymmetric opportunity in a hot sector which continues to expand, here's all you need to know.

1. The Business Model: How They Make Money

Ondas operates two segments, with one driving nearly all revenue. Ondas https://t.co/sHorpHuV6M


Summary: Bullish ONDS on string of large contract wins and doubled revenue guidance; expects short squeeze.

$ONDS just landed another $50M+ contract win.  Let me put this in context:

📋 Feb: $30M demining tender won
📋Mar: $15.8M initial order secured
📋 Today: Second $50M+ tender — Israel's $1.7B Eastern Border Security Barrier
📋 Apr 1: World View acquisition closed
📋 Mar 23: ONBERG JV announced
📋 Revenue guidance: $375M+ (was $170-180M)

Still ended the day down 1% 🔴.

Just need to smash through those shorts soon.

The chart isn't looking bad either... save this info for later.


Today may be the day I join… This raise is nothing but positive in the long term

Summary: Author sees a capital raise as a long-term positive and signals imminent entry into $TE.

Morning $TE gang!

Looks like I finally got the entry I wanted🤯😁.

This raise is nothing but positive in the long term, signifying a team who understand that they need to grow FAST.

Today may be the day I join…


Bitcoin is going past 250k mate, it's going to a million and beyond

Summary: Strongly bullish BTC; price target $1M+, well above $250K.

@CycloneInvest @Leo_Traydes Bitcoin is going past 250k mate, it’s going to a million and beyond.

Bitcoin ≠ Crypto


Summary: Long full-stack drone companies ONDS, RKLB, AVAV as the only survivors with tech + distribution; most small-caps won't make it.

The drone economy has 7 layers. I mapped them two weeks ago.

But there's an 8th layer nobody talks about:

Distribution.

You can build the best drone, the best battery, the best counter-drone system. But if you can't sell it to the DOD, none of it matters.

$ONDS just bought their distribution layer - Mistral. Prime contractor on $1B+ of DOD contracts.

$RKLB built theirs organically - $1B+ backlog.

$AVAV has had it for decades - incumbent advantage.

Most small-cap drone companies will never solve distribution. That's why most of them won't survive.

The companies that own the full stack — technology AND distribution — are the ones that compound.


$RKLB built theirs organically - $1B+ backlog


$AVAV has had it for decades - incumbent advantage


Summary: Added to NBIS (undervalued, multi-business growth), PATH (AI automation poised to explode 2026, oversold), IREN (more contracts expected 2026 vs market pricing), and CIFR (market mispricing deal potential) yesterday.

Who did I add to yesterday?

1. $NBIS

- so undervalued and the demand for cloud space is ever growing.
Confirmed deals gives legitimacy to the company.
Essentially buying five growing businesses within one name

2. $PATH

- AI automation looks like a sector waiting to explode in 2026.
- Come on, look at that gorgeous balance sheet
- It was down 4% at one point yesterday picked up some shares as it was massively being oversold
- And as always, I know some great accounts that are also big fans of $PATH like myself @nicaqs @CaesarCapitalz

3. $IREN
- Power live this year.
- Potential more deals to come.
- Market is valuing it as if they’re not gonna get any more contracts whereas I believe in 2026 we could be looking at  three contracts extra.
-The demand for AI data centres isn’t dropping or going away. It’s gonna increase in 2026.

4. $CIFR
- AWS and fluid stack backing
- Like $IREN the market is pricing it as if it won’t get any more deals this year

Who else should I look at?


AI automation looks like a sector waiting to explode in 2026. Come on, look at that gorgeous balance sheet. It was down 4% at one point yesterday picked up some shares as it was massively being oversold


Market is valuing it as if they're not gonna get any more contracts whereas I believe in 2026 we could be looking at three contracts extra


Like $IREN the market is pricing it as if it won't get any more deals this year


the opportunity that remains... One of the most aggressive build-outs in AI infrastructure history

Summary: Bullish on IREN after aggressive 6-week AI infrastructure build-out; notes valuation as the open question but sees remaining opportunity.

$IREN was the first stock I ever brought. In this article, I am circling back to it, and the opportunity that remains.

They have caught my attention after a bullish 6 weeks:
May 1 - 1.4GW Sweetwater energized
May 5 - Mirantis acquired ($625M)
May 7 - $3.4B $NVDA Blackwell partnership signed
May 7 - Nostrum Group acquired (490MW Europe)
May 11 - $3.0B convertible raise, oversubscribed
May 26 - $4.4B ARR target announced
June 1 - $3.65B GPU financing closed
June 3 - 800MW Australia campus announced

One of the most aggressive build-outs in AI infrastructure history. The valuation is the real question.

$IREN $NVDA $MSFT


Summary: Bullish INFQ on Trump quantum EOs, NASA partnership, and cheap valuation vs quantum peers IONQ/RGTI.

$INFQ up 17% today whilst everything else sits red.

- CEO in the White House with President Trump
- Trump signs two Executive Orders to push forward Quantum
- $INFQ announces Space Program and is working with NASA.

This stock still trades at a tiny valuation compared to peers like $IONQ $RGTI.

Unbelievably bullish.


tiny valuation compared to peers like $IONQ $RGTI


Summary: Bullish on MRVL post-Celestial AI acquisition as sole provider of all three AI connectivity layers; also long POET and AAOI as photonics/copper-to-light transition plays.

Marvell $MRVL spent $3.25B to acquire Celestial AI.

Most people saw a headline. Here's what they missed:

Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric doesn't just move data between racks. It connects any point on one chip to any point on another chip using light. That's not an incremental upgrade — that's a new architecture.

Why Marvell needed this:

The AI data centre is splitting into three connectivity layers:

→ Scale-out (rack to rack) — Marvell already dominates this with Ethernet switches
→ Scale-across (within the rack) — CXL memory pooling, Marvell has this too
→ Scale-up (chip to chip) — This is where Celestial AI fits. And this is the layer that's about to explode.

As AI clusters grow from hundreds to thousands of XPUs, scale-up optical interconnect becomes the bottleneck. Copper can't handle the bandwidth at those distances without melting.

Marvell's bet: $3.25B upfront. Up to $5.5B if Celestial hits $2B cumulative revenue by FY2029.

They're targeting $500M annualised run rate by late FY2028, doubling to $1B by FY2029.

If this works, Marvell becomes the only company offering scale-out + scale-across + scale-up connectivity from a single platform.

Nobody else has all three layers.

This ties directly into the photonics sector map I posted earlier today — $POET building the optical assembly platform, $MRVL now owning the optical fabric layer, $AAOI shipping the transceivers.

The copper-to-light transition is accelerating. ☕


$POET building the optical assembly platform

POET Technologies trades on NASDAQ under POET


Summary: BTC will outperform gold and silver combined in 2026.

If you needed a reminder…

Bitcoin $BTC will outperform Gold and Silver COMBINED in 2026.

Tell me otherwise


Summary: Implicit long on Bitcoin; author warns against shorting the 'GOAT asset'.

@NighthawkTradez Don’t short the GOAT asset


Already has contacts with the American's and Israeli's? Could be an opportunity here.

Summary: Long ONDS as a potential play on US-Israel military escalation, citing existing government contacts.

$ONDS

Already has contacts with the American’s and Israeli’s?

Could be an opportunity here. https://t.co/y1JG28W8xW

BREAKING: Axios reports that there is evidence that US war with Iran is "imminent" and Israel is preparing for a scenario of "war within days," which is expected to include:

1. Weeks-long "full-fledged" war unlike the Venezuela operation, sources say

2. Joint US-Israeli


Summary: Bullish Filtronic; explicitly states long case with a Berenberg PT raise to 360p as context.

i'm bullish on Filtronic. i've been watching this stock for a while.

but the bull case only works if you understand the risks clearly.

Berenberg just raised their target to 360p. the stock trades at 71x earnings. SpaceX holds equity warrants.

here is the full picture. the good and the uncomfortable. 🧵