Summary: Massively short silicon IP companies: Claude Mythos can now one-shot chip designs from open standards docs, eliminating the moat.

Silicon IP: Arm Holdings, CEVA; no single ETF exists

Massively short any silicon IP companies right now Claude Mythos just one shotted a perfect PCIe 6.0 controller… there is no moat anymore.

If there is an open standard Mythos will be able to read the design docs and one shot it overnight.


Yeah I'm still long ofc but in stock now.

Summary: Still holding a long position in INTC, now in stock rather than options.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

@themoridwan Yeah I’m still long ofc but in stock now.

@bubbleboi Are you still long INTC? Or closed your position?


The actual Apple AI strategy is a lot more smarter than haters give credit to. They own the silicon, own the OS, and can run inference on the device better than anyone. No competitor has the silicon plus OS plus distribution to replicate that and I truly believe on device inference for trillion parameter models is coming in next 5 years. The fact that Ternus is succeeding Tim Cook is very bullish for that.

Summary: Strongly bullish AAPL: differentiated on-device AI strategy (silicon+OS+distribution) is underappreciated; durable FCF machine with unmatched margins; new hardware-focused CEO succession reinforces long thesis.

Tim Cook is one of the greatest CEOs of all time and the cope from the haters this cycle has been frankly a sight to behold.

When he took over Apple in 2011, it was a $350B consumer hardware company that was selling the iPhone 4 lol. Now it’s a $4T+ free cash flow machine where Services alone is a $100B+ ARR business & AirPods is a bigger standalone business than most Fortune 500 companies. Going from a Phone OEM to a company with monster recurring revenue without breaking the core product is not easy to pull off.

Now people will see this master stroke and then be like oh but they are falling behind in the AI race. The problem with that line of thinking is that people think "AI strategy" means setting $100B on fire to rent H100s and become a low-margin neocloud. They want Apple to just blow all of their money instead of building a real differentiated product. Apple probably looked at the inference market early on and correctly decided not to play a game where the winner gets 20% gross margins and a terrible balance sheet and let everybody else fight it out. Nvidia did the same thing. Neoclouds look more like industrials why the fuck would you destroy your 75% margins for that?

The actual Apple AI strategy is a lot more smarter than haters give credit to. They own the silicon, own the OS, and can run inference on the device better than anyone.

M5 ships with neural accelerators in every GPU core, 153 GB/s unified memory bandwidth and if you believe flash has room to run… much more. Your data never leaves the phone, your AI never goes down because AWS had a bad day, and you don't get billed by the token. No competitor has the silicon plus OS plus distribution to replicate that and I truly believe on device inference for trillion parameter models is coming in next 5 years. The fact that Ternus is succeeding Tim Cook is very bullish for that. They didn't pick a finance guy or a services guy. They picked the head of hardware engineering because the board knows this is the future for Apple.

The people dunking on Cook have never built a free cash flow business in their lives. You actually need to be successful first to understand why a business needs to defend a margin profile, allocate capex against a portfolio, or make a decision that looks slow now but obvious for 10 years. You can't expect the junior varsity players to understand the decisions a pro would make.

Under Cook, Apple's market cap grew from $350 billion to $4 trillion, more than 1,000% increase; meanwhile revenue quadrupled, from $108 billion in 2011 to $416 billion in 2025.

That's some serious Price/Sales expansion


Summary: Strongly bullish INTC, reacting to CoPoS delay news as a major catalyst to own more Intel.

“CoPoS is delayed… first product shipment expected in Q4 2030”

HOLY FUCKING SMOKES CHAT YOU DONT OWN ENOUGH INTEL

DigiTimes published a report on TSMC's packaging this morning, and there's a lot of alpha in it.

To summarize:

1. TSMC is significantly expanding SoIC capacity in 2027 (from 10K wafers/month to 50K wafers/month), with NVIDIA locking up most of this SoIC capacity. Only 10% will


Summary: Amazon undervalued on Anthropic model hosting; bullish fundamental stance.

@labubu_trader @RobinCh2020 I think Amazon might be undervalued they are hosting a lot of anthropics models for them

@RobinCh2020 I’d rather buy GOOG and AMZN as they have invested a lot into customized hardware, so they already are optimizing for the efficiency.
Even neocloud is more attractive than msft IMO from technical perspective, $CRWV/$IREN/$NBIS/$CIFR


Summary: Strongly bullish flash & networking stocks; buy the dip aggressively for a 2-year horizon.

Flash: WDC/SanDisk; networking: Arista, Marvell

If I were a young kid getting out of college right now with few job prospects this is how I would trade it.

1. Take out as much debt as you possibly can and buy the dip in flash & networking.

2. Get a job working on an oil field or refinery quickly.

In two years you would have made more than most new grad FAANG engineers.


Summary: Full-port long INTC on EMIB packaging superiority over CoWoS and multi-reticle scalability; expects NVDA to be a significant EMIB customer beyond CPUs.

This was the most bullish thing I heard on the call and I am surprised the likes of @jukan05 and others didn’t mention it.

A lot of my confidence in Intel isn’t just being a leading edge logic fab, in fact I would say that’s 30-40% of why I was bullish. But it’s their packaging technology that made me confident enough to full port long it because EMIB is superior to CoWoS in every way.

They even mentioned how EMIB allows you to scale to multi reticle packages a lot easier in the call which again many analysts aren’t picking up on. The only person I know of shipping or even planning to ship multi reticle packages is Nvidia. If you think the Nvidia investment in Intel was just for CPUs I think you will be surprised on what’s coming next.

Moore’s law is moving at a snail’s pace but advanced packaging is really what’s allowed us to keep scaling compute faster… I expect Nvidia to be evaluating EMIB closely as well as others.

$INTC CFO on advanced packaging demand:

"...I think maybe naively, I had thought that these opportunities would come in the hundreds of millions of dollars level. So far what we're seeing is that their demand is more in the billions of dollars per year kind of level" https://t.co/40urhAbhII


If you think the Nvidia investment in Intel was just for CPUs I think you will be surprised on what's coming next


Summary: Author is shorting Lumentum expecting to buy it back cheaper, a direct short position.

Shorting Lumentum just so I can buy it back again cheaper.

I would like institutional investors to short $LITE so the incoming short squeeze is even more entertaining.

It's actually hilarious how several very smart people still refuse to listen to me despite my repeated clear explinations of laser tech. https://t.co/RSWYw2h591


Summary: Both Intel and Cisco may reach all-time highs in the coming months.

Intel & Cisco might hit all time highs in the coming months.


Summary: Author discloses a live short position in Vertiv.

@bubbleboi Vertiv is goated. Buy any 8-10% dips and DCA up.


Summary: Bullish Sandisk; could reach $600B market cap if HBF technology gains traction.

Sandisk might be a 600B dollar company soon if this HBF stuff takes off.


Summary: Decisive bullish lean on IBM.


KT&G has a lockdown on the engineers who make the world's HBM. They can name their price. … the multiple goes from 9× to 22× before consensus catches up to the revisions

Summary: Long KT&G: satirical-but-structured bull thesis — ESSE cigarette pricing power = 25% EPS growth, multiple re-rate from 9× to 22×.

You think the AI bottleneck is HBM. You think it’s CoWoS. You think it’s GB200 cables or 800G optics or the Arizona power grid. You are looking at the wrong layer of the stack.

The bottleneck is … nicotine.

Specifically, the ESSE Change 1mg menthol cigarette made by KT&G (033780.KS) and smoked by Samsung’s HBM packaging engineers in the courtyard of Pyeongtaek Campus P3 between 2:47 AM and 3:04 AM during the third reflow shift. Without this cigarette, Samsung HBM4 yields collapse from 64% to 11%. Nobody knows why.

I think I cracked it.

I ran a backtest on Samsung’s HBM3 qualification ramp pulling weekly yield disclosures from FSS DART filings, normalizing to a 7-day baseline, and cross-referencing against KT&G’s quarterly shipment manifests at the SKU × distribution-center level. R² of 0.87 on HBM3, with ESSE Change 1mg shipments to the Pyeongtaek-Anseong corridor leading yield prints by 36–40 hours. I assumed I’d messed up the merge. Ran it three more ways. The signal held.

So I pulled HBM4E, which Samsung started disclosing weekly in Q1 2026. Same overlay, but this time narrowed to CU branch #4471 which is 340 meters from the P3 fab gate, the only 24-hour store within walking distance of the third-shift smoking area. R² = 0.91, lag of 38 hours, p < 0.001.

When I ran SK hynix yields against the same KT&G series, no signal. Samsung yields against Marlboro shipments via Philip Morris Korea, no signal. Every other CU branch within 2km of P3 nothing.

Only #4471 prints.

This upcoming June, Samsung is qualifying HBM4E for Nvidia Feynman. Samsung supplies ~30% of HBM4E into the ramp or 1.2M Feynman packages, every single one of those HBM stacks is gated by an engineer puffing on an ESSE Change. Samsung HBM4E yield is now the load-bearing dependency for global AI capex, but KT&G is the load-bearing dependency for Samsung.

And sadly there is no alternative. Japan Tobacco’s Mevius is described by Samsung engineers as “tasting like a hospital.” Marlboro is what SK hynix smokes and for engineering reasons is structurally incompatible with Samsung’s MR-MUF process. BAT and Imperial have under 4% combined Korean share, and Chinese domestics can’t be imported in volume. Even KT&G’s own ESSE Special Gold was trialed at P3 in March 2025 and caused a 7% yield drop in one week because the engineers said they could taste the paper supplier change and were feeling nauseous.

With all that said, look at the financials. ESSE Change runs ~38% gross margin against a 52% group average. KT&G has been underpricing their flagship brand for two decades because nobody realized it isn’t a cigarette, it’s the bottleneck of global AI capex. A 15% price hike is ~80% lift to operating income at this volume, lifting group EBITDA margin from 28% to 34%. On ���6.1T of revenue, that’s ₩370B of incremental operating profit against a ₩9.8T market cap resulting in a 12% earnings beat from one SKU repricing.

And the best part? The engineers literally cannot decline, because there is no substitute. I bet on two hikes in eighteen months which gets you 25% EPS growth without selling a single additional pack. This is what the sell-side is going to figure out in Q3, and it’s why the multiple goes from 9× to 22× before consensus catches up to the revisions.

No amount of Arizona engineers chewing 30mg mint Zyns replaces this.
KT&G has a lockdown on the engineers who make the world’s HBM. They can name their price.


Summary: Bullish memory; forecasts shortage extending to 2030, contradicting cycle-reversal thesis.

@ysza_ysza_ysza From my calculations, memory is in shortage until 2030

@bubbleboi “MU’s drawdown after posting a major earnings beat signals a reversal of the memory cycle”

yeah real good analysis there, why don’t you try to build a home computer and tell what kind of dumpsterfire you end up with? the memory cycle is going be the theme through 2027


Summary: Aggressively long INTC into earnings.

I’m balls long Intel earnings again. Fuck it ball out.


Summary: Confirms active short position in TSMC.

@bubbleboi Interesting. I hope people didn't listen to you two weeks ago, when you said you were massively short TSMC.
https://t.co/uRQoK4ltub


9.53 Sandisk Forward P/E despite these insane earnings. I might full port tomorrow.

Summary: Bullish SNDK: 9.53x fwd P/E looks cheap after massive earnings beat; considering full-port entry tomorrow.

@degencopier @smerf_pl @bubbleboi $SNDK trailing P/E is negative/not meaningful right now (recent losses, around -140 range). Forward P/E sits at 9.53 per latest data.

Huge revenue beat (97% QoQ / 251% YoY), but after a 3300% run the forward multiple still looks cheap vs. growth—if estimates hold.


Summary: Heavily long fertilizer sector.

MOO (VanEck Agribusiness ETF) covers fertilizer names

@george_veng @georgesoros I reduced it due to the market manipulation but I am heavily long fertilizer

@bubbleboi @georgesoros are you gonna stay long oil? i cashed out this morning only fertilizer left in port


Summary: Decisive buy call on INTC; author says Intel itself is the next Intel.

Everybody keeps asking me
“oh bUbBlE wHaTs Da nExT iNtEL?!?”

It’s Intel. Just keep buying it.


Summary: Bull case on Intel: P/B 3x to reach $1.3T–$2T valuation within 2 years, comparable to TSMC.

@FFairing @JackieNate1 2 trillion in next 2 years is my bull case.

I think they should have a comparable valuation to TSMC at the very least  which means there Price/Book needs to 3x from here making it a 1.3 trillion dollar company minimum.

@bubbleboi @JackieNate1 Okay one last q, what’s your bull case on intel? A trillion? Multiple? Lets say through the next decade


Short $EWY guys it's the best risk reward out there right now the economy is going to freeze up!

Summary: Short EWY as best risk/reward; Korean economy freezing up amid Iran-war supply disruptions.

Short $EWY guys it’s the best risk reward out there right now the economy is going to freeze up!

A South Korean plastic film factory has cut production to 20–30% of capacity due to raw material shortages caused by the Iran war and disruptions in global energy markets https://t.co/fyzUViZvtO https://t.co/7fvqMMDP4h


Summary: Bearish Lumentum; explicitly calls it a short despite currently holding a position.

Lumentum and all these networking companies are cooked. Lumentum is a short but I do own it for now lol.


LUMENTUM is a massive short I held it until now but it's over bought

Summary: Short Lumentum; author exiting long and calling it overbought with high conviction.

LUMENTUM is a massive short I held it until now but it’s over bought.


Summary: Author is short the Blackstone publicly traded data center fund on launch.

BREAKING: Blackstone is launching a publicly traded fund for buying data centers.

The fund will allow millions of retail investors to gain exposure to the AI data center boom. https://t.co/l8Fouv9Xt6


I would go long vol on all these ETFs I don't think this is over by end of week

Summary: Long volatility on all four Gulf-region ETFs (QAT, UAE, KSA, KWT); expects continued turbulence past end of week.

I would go long vol on all these ETFs I don’t think this is over by end of week.

@bubbleboi what's your thoughts on trading the US listed ETFs for UAE, Qatar, KSA, Kuwait? they've have suspended trading for their underlying exchanges for a week. There's going to be wild VOL in these indexes $QAT $UAE $KSA $KWT


CXL isn't dead and is going to be one of the biggest changes to AI infra ever... The fact that people don't see this yet blows my mind.

Summary: Strongly bullish on CXL as a major AI infrastructure shift; believes market is not yet pricing this in.

CXL ecosystem: Astera Labs, Intel, Marvell, Supermicro

Interesting… It seems Google has started deploying CXL controllers to address memory shortages. (The information)

So CXL isn’t dead after all? https://t.co/0Q9yx5d9QR


even Cisco's about to reach a new all time high

Summary: Cisco reaching new ATH; calling top in venture capital / private markets; public equities entering golden era.

I WAS SCREAMING AT THE TOP OF MY LUNGS LAST YEAR THAT INTEL WAS A STEAL AT $19 A SHARE!!!

But nooooooooo you guys wanted to chase an OpenAI triple layered SPV with 20% management fees.  You invested in Polymarket’s goy milker 1,000 at an inflated valuation. You lost on Sandisk, Lumentum, fuck it even Cisco’s about to reach a new all time high.

I am calling the top in venture capital. Private markets have gotten too frothy and unless you have deal flow from the autism factory you’re not going to outperform.

We are in the golden era of stock investing. Public markets are back.


crude at $110 it's going to $150 by end of week

Summary: Crude oil rallying to $150 by end of week from current ~$110; don't overreact.

Don’t overreact to crude at $110 it’s going to $150 by end of week.


It's a three-bagger in 18 months and the stock is up >3% YTD

Summary: Long Sumitomo Bakelite as a 3x in 18 months: monopoly on HBM mold compound EME-G, Rubin Ultra ramp triggers shortage, re-rating from 14x to 38x P/E.

You think the AI bottleneck is HBM. You think it’s CoWoS. You think it’s GB200 cables or 800G optics or the Arizona power grid. You are looking at the wrong layer of the stack….

The REAL bottleneck is epoxy resin paste. Specifically, Liquid Compression Molding compound EME-G, a goopy, beige, photosensitive thermosetting resin that gets squeegeed onto HBM stacks before the mold press comes down and cures it. Without this paste, the silicon dies in an HBM stack delaminate, the TSVs crack, and your $40,000 GPU becomes an expensive paperweight.

Sumitomo Bakelite (4203.T) makes roughly 90% of the world’s supply. The other 10% is split between Nagase ChemteX and Hitachi Chemical, both of whom buy precursor chemicals from Sumitomo Bakelite. The moat is vertical.

The resin formulation is a trade secret developed over 38 years of iteration. It contains a specific ratio of silica filler to bisphenol-F epoxy with a coefficient of thermal expansion tuned to within 0.3 ppm/°C of silicon. Get the ratio wrong by 2% and the HBM stack warps during reflow. Samsung tried to qualify a domestic Korean alternative in 2022. They failed. SK hynix tried in 2023. They failed. Micron didn’t even try.

Sumitomo Bakelite ships approximately $180M of EME-G annually at a gross margin of 74%. Each HBM stack consumes roughly $6 of resin. As Nvidia’s roadmap points to more and more HBM stacks the math is clear. Feynman GPU package has 8 HBM stacks. That’s $48 of Sumitomo Bakelite content in a $70,000 GPU. They are 0.07% of the BOM and 100% of the bottleneck. This is the most asymmetric pricing power in the entire AI supply chain and they are charging like it’s commodity epoxy because the company is run by Japanese chemical engineers who think 8% annual price increases are aggressive.

In Q3 of 2026 the Nvidia Rubin Ultra ramp is scheduled and will trigger an EME-G shortage. Sumitomo Bakelite will have to raises prices 35%. The stock will get re-rated from “specialty chemicals” to “AI infrastructure.” Multiple expansion from 14× P/E to 38× P/E. It’s a three-bagger in 18 months and the stock is up >3% YTD.


I've been slowly accumulating oil futures and I now control enough of the open interest that there isn't enough physical supply at Cushing to make me whole

Summary: Long WTI crude via accumulated futures; attempting a short squeeze on Treasury ahead of front-month expiry next Friday.

Next Friday, the front month WTI crude oil futures expire.

The U.S. Treasury department will be forced to cover their shorts or otherwise deliver millions of barrels of oil to contract holders at Cushing, Oklahoma.

My plan?

It’s simple. I’ve been slowly accumulating oil futures and I now control enough of the open interest that there isn’t enough physical supply at Cushing to make me whole.

The U.S. Treasury has two choices:

1. Buy back their shorts from me. At my price.

2. Show up to Cushing, Oklahoma with a very large truck.

The SPR is in Louisiana. Cushing is in Oklahoma. That’s a 500 mile drive.

Good luck, Bessent.


Summary: Bullish INTC: market underpricing packaging business, author projects $40B annual packaging revenue by 2028.

Again… Intel is not a CPU bottleneck story. Market is still not pricing packaging wins, that I project by 2028 will be bringing in 40B a year in revenue.


Summary: Bearish ADBE; author argues true fair value is well below $25B market cap.

Bearish

---

Adobe is probably not even worth a 25B market cap if we are being honest.


Summary: Long Intel with $72 price target by year-end.

@CopePandah @GZQuant Yes the price target is $72 a share by end of year

@bubbleboi @GZQuant Are you still bull intel - and do you have a price target / time horizon 🫣


Summary: Fading the rally by tripling existing long positions in oil, natural gas, and fertilizers.

I’m fading the rally and I am TRIPLING my oil, gas, and fertilizer longs.

I either get rich or die trying.


Summary: Author views Intel's $14.2B Ireland plant buyback as a hugely bullish signal for INTC.

Intel agreed to pay $14.2 billion to buy back half of a plant in Ireland that it had previously sold to Apollo Global Management. https://t.co/usmMFsrHti


Sandisk at a 17x forward P/E w/ 60% Revenue growth is the best deal in history. My low end estimate is a $300B market cap

Summary: Long Sandisk: 17x P/E with 60% revenue growth is best deal in history; 16x NAND density + 50x bandwidth makes it the next major AI company, PT $300B market cap.

This is going to sound crazy.

But Sandisk at a 17x forward P/E w/ 60% Revenue growth is the best deal in history. A lot of people are scared because it ran up so much. Bro, what do you think happens when they 16x the density of NAND & 50x the bandwidth?

We are looking at the next big AI company my low end estimate is a $300B market cap.

---

Also there is this idea it’s just a shortage. Bro this is the new era, HBM is becoming less of the picture.


Summary: Author claims an imminent short thesis on Nvidia will cause considerable stock decline.

I am dropping a short thesis on Nvidia today that will make the stock drop considerably.

Be careful folks!


Summary: Long FLEX: JetCool's unique 3kW in-package cooling + Broadcom ASIC codesign agreement gives FLEX multi-year dominance in advanced cooling niche driven by Feynman voltage/packaging demands.

My view is on Feynman but wouldn’t surprise me with VR Ultra that Flex because the design partner for Nvidia’s cooling blocks.

Cooling was a commodity right now but JetCool allows them to cool 3 kW in package nobody else is on the market with that. They also have an agreement with Broadcom to do cooling codesign for all their ASICs and I expect because of the edge they dominate the niche for a few years.

Upping voltages on Feynman is going to lead to massive demand for cooling from the power rails but also in the package. Advanced packaging scaling to more and more reticles means more cooling directed at hot spots.

@bubbleboi From what I was able to find, only $FLEX $INTC and $MSFT (through their initiative with Corintis) actually have ready & deployable at scale next generation cooling (in-sillicon).

That would lead to $FLEX getting incrementally more orders due to their full data center suite


I told y'all to short EWY like your life depended on it.

Summary: Reiterates strong short on EWY (South Korea ETF) citing deteriorating conditions in Korea.

I told y’all to short EWY like your life depended on it.

"South Korea has already imposed driving restrictions on civil servants, curbing how often they can access government buildings by car based on the last number of their license plates." https://t.co/u8BHPpQXNw


Summary: Short Oracle on negative free cash flow outlook until 2030.

Oracle's free cash flows isn't expected to go positive again until 2030 https://t.co/WCAPamfTiz https://t.co/H9X5qJw8H7


Summary: Bullish oil to $200/bbl: Hormuz closure + physical infrastructure destruction + no spare capacity + both chokepoints compromised = sustained 15-20% global supply shock with no functional offset.

Brent crude futures, pass-through ticker

The case for $200 a barrel oil by my analysis.

Firstly you must understand that on the demand side the world consumes roughly 100 million barrels of oil per day with 20 million of those barrels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.

That straight is closed.

And the scary party about this is Iran didn’t need a navy to shut it down. All it took was a handful of cheap drones fired near the waterway, and within 48 hours insurers pulled war-risk coverage, and 150 tankers dropped anchor rather than risk the crossing. This is a VERY high ROI strategy for Iran, very little capital is needed to maintain a closure now because the market priced the risk accordingly making it economically untenable.

Now with that being said and what makes this structurally different from prior scares to me is that there is no spare capacity sitting on the sidelines and this is KEY. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq can’t backfill supply because they can’t export. 89% of Saudi exports, 97% of Iraq’s, and 100% of Kuwait’s and Qatar’s flow through that strait.

What this means is the fucking oil Storage tanks across the Gulf are filling up rapidly ! Which means producers aren’t just losing export revenue they’re being forced to curtail production entirely because there is literally nowhere to store the oil. The Iranian attacks on the physical infrastructure only compounds this!

Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery which processes 550,000 bpd and is one of the world’s largest crude export terminals was shut down after drone strikes ignited a fire at the complex. Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, which produces roughly 20% of the world’s LNG, halted all production following Iranian attacks. Refineries in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE were also hit. This is physical destruction of processing and export infrastructure across six countries simultaneously.

Bringing that capacity back online isn’t a switch you flip. Industrial-scale refinery damage typically takes three to six months to repair under normal peacetime conditions, with full supply chains available and no ongoing threat of additional strikes. In an active war that timeline extends materially. Qatar’s largest LNG customers in Japan, South Korea, and Europe are likely looking at weeks to months without contracted supply and those are long-term offtake agreements with no easy substitution available at spot.

Then add Yemen on top of this. The Houthis have already reactivated attacks on Red Sea shipping, forcing rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. With the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden effectively closed to Western commercial traffic, which means the only alternative routing for Gulf crude is now also unavailable. Meaning both of the world’s critical energy chokepoints simultaneously compromised for the first time in modern history.

---

Now let’s look at the offset.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds 416 million barrels which is 58% of its 714 million barrel capacity. The maximum withdrawal rate is 4.4 million barrels per day, and it takes 13 days from release decision to market. The IEA coordinated a 400 million barrel release from global reserves today across all member nations.

That sounds enormous until you factor that global consumption is 100 million bpd, meaning 400 million barrels covers four days of total global demand. The market already knew this, which is why the announcement failed to move prices. And even if we max out the SPR withdrawal for 90 days straight you’ve nearly emptied America’s entire emergency reserve while covering less than a quarter of the cumulative supply deficit from a three-month Hormuz closure.

The obvious counterargument is American and Canadian oil and it’s worth taking seriously before dismissing it. The US currently produces about 13.5 million bpd, Canada around 5.8 million. In theory that’s nearly 20 million barrels of Western Hemisphere production. In practice, ramping that materially in a 90-day window is close to impossible.

US shale production is extraordinarily responsive to price signals over a 12-to-18 month horizon, but it requires capital deployment, rig mobilization, completion crews, and frac sand logistics that have multi-month lead times even in a permitting-friendly environment.

Canadian oil sands production is another alternative but has even longer lead times requiring multi-year capital projects measured in billions that are not responsive to a 90-day price spike. And critically, even if you could produce additional barrels, moving Canadian heavy crude to coastal export terminals requires pipeline infrastructure that doesn’t exist at scale.

The Keystone XL Pipeline was ultimately killed. The existing Enbridge and TMX systems are running near capacity. Meaning you can’t reroute Canadian oil to displace Gulf crude in Asian markets without export infrastructure that will take years to build.

So the math closes like this:

We have a sustained 15-20% global supply shock, with no spare capacity, no functional reserve offset, physical infrastructure damage measured in months to repair, and both major export chokepoints simultaneously compromised.

Historical precedents like 1973, 2008 show 2-3x price moves from supply shocks of half this magnitude. Pre-war Brent was $70-75. We crossed $100 on day 10. The IRGC said it themselves today: “Expect oil at $200 per barrel.” Thats not a threat that’s math.


EMIB is the biggest advance in semiconductors since FinFETs

Summary: Bullish INTC: author calls EMIB the biggest semiconductor advance since FinFETs, a decisive quality verdict.

Intel’s EMIB Challenges TSMC’s CoWoS as America’s Answer to the AI Packaging Bottleneck

Intel's EMIB and EMIB-T technologies are currently seen as a viable option for solutions that prioritize cost-efficiency, massive physical scale, and design flexibility over absolute peak


I like that Intel stock man I can't get enough of it.

Summary: Decisive bullish stance on INTC; author can't get enough of it.

I like that Intel stock man I can’t get enough of it.


Intel $100 coming after this earnings call. The foundry narrative is turning. The street is offside.

Summary: Long INTC to $100 on foundry narrative turn and street being offside into earnings.

Intel $100 coming after this earnings call.

Last quarter I was obliterated. Nearly wiped out. I watched my P&L bleed in after-hours like a man watching his house burn. Everyone said I was finished. They thought I’d never touch INTC again. They thought the story was over..

But right when I’m out, they pull me back in…

This is my redemption. Every hero’s story demands death before the resurrection. My ego was destroyed, my hope, my will was crushed… but I kept fighting. I’m not a good trader, or a good investor... but the gods simply favor me. Divine intervention doesn’t come to those  without courage, it comes to the man who sizes up when the world tells him to fold.

Pat walked so Lip-Bu could run. The foundry narrative is turning. The street is offside. And I’ve seen this movie before, except this time, I’m not the one who loses.

See you in Valhalla.


Summary: Bullish Samsung on DRAM 4F² breakthrough: 20% more dies per wafer, massive supply/yield implications.

If this paper is true (I have no doubt it is) this has massive implications on memory supply and yields.

DRAM up to know used a 6F² cell layout. Moving to 4F² means the cell area shrinks to ~67% of the conventional size. They are able to do this with a “vertical channel” where transistors are upright rather than flat. By also stacking the peripheral circuitry for controlling the memory cells they get better density too. TLDR it’s a sky scraper rather than a large foot print building.

So basically this means they get 20% more DRAM dies per wafer without changing the node or process.

Absolutely wild.

Samsung DRAM breakthrough (ISSCC):
1) Periphery and array separated onto two hybrid bonded wafers => looser design rules for periphery.
2) D1a pitches on 4F2 process gives D0a cell area.
3) 4F2 has floating body. (My take: IGZO may be deployed in future.)
https://t.co/sgeSdYnsTI


Micron is bringing on more supply that's mainly why I'm more bullish

Summary: Prefers Micron over Hynix on supply expansion thesis.

@blondesnmoney Micron is bringing on more supply that’s mainly why I’m more bullish

I have a question for the Micron bulls (I own a bit of Micron). Hynix is somewhere around 5.4x with great HBM, and a strong position in NAND. Micron is around 9.8x. Both have net cash positions (moreso Hynix).

Is the entire differential a Korea discount or concerns Hynix will do


Summary: Long NOK as an obvious play on long-haul fiber and data-center connectivity buildout.

@labubu_trader Nokia I think for long haul fiber between data centers & in the data center is an obvious play agreed.

$NOK
I’m expecting more and more big creators to pump it.


Summary: Short Micron on HBM losses, short Kioxia on weak balance sheet.

@strictrope No.

I would short micron they are an HBM loser and I would short Kioxia with bad balance sheet.

@bubbleboi You like over Kioxia and Micron who own their fabs?


I would short Kioxia with bad balance sheet


We could be in for the next FAANG company right now. It's reminding me a lot of cloud companies from 2015 to 2020!

Summary: Bullish Intel multi-year: ASIC design, 18A/14A fab progress, server CPU dominance, and AI inference could make it the next FAANG-scale compounder.

Intel’s ASIC design business could surpass MediaTek & Marvell in 5 years if 18AP is good.

On 14A it’s also clear things are going better. Imagine a company with dominance in server CPUs, has cutting edge fabs, an ASIC design business, and an AI inference business coming soon…

We could be in for the next FAANG company right now. It’s reminding me a lot of cloud companies from 2015 to 2020!


Summary: Author claims MRVL will stay above $120 for 60 consecutive trading days, endorsing the target.

Matt Murphy gets a $100M bonus if $MRVL stock stays above $120 for 60 consecutive trading days. https://t.co/mfxAhFpN0T


I think there is significant risk Nvidia doesn't hit their revenue targets.

Summary: Bearish NVDA; sees significant risk the company misses revenue targets.

@Amarillo_Slim1 I think there is significant risk Nvidia doesn’t hit their revenue targets.

@bubbleboi I get that you're trying to grow your following by sounding smart to ppl that are not knowledgeable but this is just all wrong and easily disproven. One of the more idiotic things I've seen written in a long time.


Summary: Reinstated long option position in INTC, endorsing thesis that data center CPUs sold out and hyperscalers blocking IFS fab capacity.

The option position is back on folks. @Srasgon shout me out in the next earnings call.

$INTC is the new $NVDA

$INTC already told us - data center CPUs are sold out for multiple qtrs

Hyperscalers are trying to sign LTCs. This isn't them buying CPUs. This is them blocking fab capacity at IFS

#AI shops will go from GPU rich to CPU poor. Enterprises will be https://t.co/C4byG7XhMG


most of the people who escape the permanent underclass won't be employees at big AI labs but mainly people who decided to full port semis for the next 3 years

Summary: Full allocation to semis for next 3 years; AI buildout is real and semiconductor stocks are the way to play it.

It’s looking more likely that most of the people who escape the permanent underclass won’t be employees at big AI labs but mainly people who decided to full port semis for the next 3 years.

POV: It's 2030

• $NVDA is at $650
• $SNDK is at $4800
• $AMD is at $2100

The AI hype was not a bubble and you are still sidelined. https://t.co/S9yQDEPKy2


Summary: Expects INTC to overtake AMD in market cap after upcoming earnings; implies INTC outperforms AMD.

Intel almost overtaking AMD in market cap. I expect after this earnings it will.


Summary: Bearish Allbirds; eyeing puts on what author calls a top signal.

AllBirds is very very top signal. Might need to buy hella puts.


Summary: Long Intel as a trillion-dollar opportunity on EMIB packaging dominance; AMD's higher valuation seen as unjustified; TSMC to lose packaging leadership by 2030.

TSMC will lose its crown not because they didn’t keep up on high end logic but because they didn’t invest in their packaging offering enough. Today EMIB is far superior than even what TSMC is projecting to offer with CoPoS in 2030…

My prediction is Feynmen will completely use EMIB the rumor of it being used just for an I/O die is wishful thinking. Even if you just estimate Intel does the I/O dies for Feynmen an extra 4.8B in revenue. If they get used for the compute dies which is my assumption the revenue becomes 28-66 billion a year from a range of (2.5 to 6M packages).

This isn’t even including doing deals with TPU & other hyperscaler ASICs. Please guys get out of the permanent underclass this a trillion dollar company at worst, the fact that AMD still has a higher valuation is crazy.


TSMC will lose its crown not because they didn't keep up on high end logic but because they didn't invest in their packaging offering enough


Summary: Dismisses chart-based run-up concern on Sandisk; remains bullish on owning it as a problem-solving, value-creating business.

Guys stop telling me Sandisk has run up so much yada yada like broooo I don’t caaaaaaare I don’t look at the chart like a baboon.

The chart just confirms when I was right. All that matters is problem solving, this is engineering, this is not commodities.

Buy companies that solve important problems and provide value. There’s a lot of value to create in the world still.


Summary: Short NVDA into GTC event; long NVDA supplier stocks as the paired trade.

The trade for GTC is to short Nvidia and long the suppliers.


my biggest long is fertilizer. Food has inelastic demand when you're hungry. The price of fertilizer companies can double from here

Summary: Long fertilizer sector; supply shock + inelastic food demand could double fertilizer company prices.

30-50% of fertilizer supply is gone. This will impact the growing season and lead to large food price increases if not worse…

I saw this 4 weeks ago though my biggest long is fertilizer. Food has inelastic demand when you’re hungry. The price of fertilizer companies can double from here .


Summary: Ternus taking over is extremely bullish for AAPL on Apple silicon hardware acceleration.

Ternus taking over at Apple means two things:

1) extremely bullish for Apple silicon and Apple stock

2) Apple is about to become the Mecca of hardware engineers around the world

---

The fuck it we will do it in hardware vibes are strong.


Summary: Long META/Google on data+network moat; bullish AMZN/MSFT long-term once capex tapers; SaaS big names impaired.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

There probably is some alpha in SaaS left but it’s not going to be in these big names.

The SaaS days are over. Only real moat left is data, distribution, & network effects it’s why we see Meta & Google are thriving. Amazon & Microsoft not as much but will probably turn around once the capex tapers off.

In all my years I can't remember where 1 company - Anthropic- has destroyed so much market cap. Software death spirals https://t.co/reUWyvlC6w


Amazon & Microsoft not as much but will probably turn around once the capex tapers off


You still have hope. Before the earnings call next week. It's your last chance. Bar's closing. Will you join me in the permanent upper class anon?

Summary: Strong buy call on INTC into next week's earnings; author urges buying before it's too late, targeting major upside.

February 20th, 2025.

You would be up over 291% on this anon. It was below book value, 18A was on track, LBT just took over. EMIB already existed. TSMC was fully booked out the next 2 years.

It was all so simple. I saw it. But don’t worry. You still have hope. Before the earnings call next week. It’s your last chance. Bar’s closing.

Will you join me in the permanent upper class anon?

Me when intel's stock hits $100 per share https://t.co/tr4EuUDYhA


I sincerely think Intel will overtake Nvidia's market cap in the next 5 years

Summary: Intel will surpass Nvidia's market cap within 5 years; implicitly bearish on Nvidia's relative valuation.

I sincerely think Intel will overtake Nvidia’s market cap in the next 5 years.


Summary: Crude oil to $150/barrel by July; strongly bullish continuation of the short squeeze.

This is truly incredible to watch:

5 minutes ago, US crude oil prices surged above $91.50/barrel.

Now, we are above $92.50, adding +$1/barrel in 5 minutes.

This puts prices up +$12/barrel in 9 hours.

We are witnessing a historic short squeeze as we speak. https://t.co/GbTOuSGFDI


Summary: Holds EWY (Korea ETF) as a live long position.

@bubbleboi Bro your life would be so much easier if you just held GLW and EWY


Summary: Bullish on Navitas Semi but with smaller position sizing due to weak balance sheet.

@memristor Like them but allocate smaller amount as their balance sheet is not great

@bubbleboi any strong opinion on Navitas Semi? pure-play, high-efficiency wide-band gap power conversion supplier


Nvidia is looking like a great short right now

Summary: Bearish on Nvidia; sees it as a short opportunity.


Summary: Bullish TSMC: Taiwanese government will prioritize keeping TSMC production online despite energy crisis.

Korea & Taiwan are next. I do expect the Taiwanese government to do whatever it takes to keep TSMC production online even if it means the whole country runs on candlelight for a few months.

Egypt will begin curbing some electricity use, including by ordering shops and cafes to close earlier, as the North African energy importer grapples with soaring global fuel costs caused by the Iran war https://t.co/QCZ1aiv0Ln


Nobody should even be caring about TSMC's monthly revenue the fact they do and it missed this bad is not good. March will really be telling.

Summary: Bearish on TSMC; endorses short thesis — revenue miss is significant and March data will be worse.

This is already clear if you check this:

https://t.co/F1LlaBv8vp

Nobody should even be caring about TSMC’s monthly revenue the fact they do and it missed this bad is not good. March will really be telling.

I’m massively short TSMC btw.

They will ship zero chips next month if this trend continues.


Summary: Recommends buying deep OTM WTI crude oil calls; bullish on crude from here.

Highly recommend you start buying 5 delta or 3 delta WTI calls.


Summary: Long EWY (South Korea ETF) in response to South Korea's geopolitical/existential outlook.

SOUTH KOREA WILL STILL EXIST IN 2030 https://t.co/uE3gnoX0gi


Summary: Macro crisis thesis: credit tightening triggers EM contagion, AI capex collapses, Neoclouds/supply chain gap down 80%, rates fall.

Neocloud GPU-rental operators: CoreWeave, Core Scientific, Cipher Mining

If yung macro itch — I scratch !

This is inflationary in the short term because this is a classic supply shock. But I think what comes next is just full on economic crisis started by credit tightening and derisking in the financial system.

The first signs are already starting in emerging markets like Korea, India, Taiwan that are getting hit hard by strong dollar and energy costs. Then high yield & private credit spreads blow out leading to contagion of bankruptcies and asset managers blocking redemptions.

AI data center capex goes to zero in this scenario with the labs being bought out by their daddies. All Neoclouds and the whole supply chain gap down 80%.

So yeah rates will go down if this continues because this is economic calamity.


Summary: Endorses full-port ALAB position; bullish on Astera Labs.


Summary: Bullish ASML on EUV layer adoption growth and high-growth packaging equipment expansion.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Agreed EUV is becoming more and more layers than DUV now & the push into packaging equipment is extremely high growth IF they pull it off

Which company is the KING of sandbagging guidance?

I think $ASML has a valid claim


Summary: Short TSMC on helium supply disruption from Ras Laffan shutdown threatening semiconductor manufacturing.

🚨The Iran War is putting the semiconductor industry on high alert:

The shutdown of Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, the world's largest LNG export plant, has knocked out ~33% of global helium supply, as helium is a byproduct of natural gas processing.

With the facility offline, https://t.co/zqAX9nolsd


Nvidia is cooked. I'm calling the top right here pal.

Summary: Calling the top on Nvidia; explicitly bearish from here.

Nvidia is cooked. I’m calling the top right here pal.


Summary: Long oil; positioned for a surge to $200/barrel.

US government officials and Wall Street analysis are starting to consdier the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedeted $200 a barrel, per Bloomberg


Summary: Author endorses and extends Northland's bullish INTC thesis, calling $100 within reach beyond the raised $92 PT.

$INTC | 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥: Northland maintains 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦, raises 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟗𝟐

Analyst highlights strategic deals and capacity value re-rating, with supply constraints boosting long-term positioning. https://t.co/CYCPJYJ57v


Summary: Bullish Century Aluminum as a beneficiary of Rio Tinto Kennecott suspension disrupting copper/aluminum supply.

Natural gas byproducts are used to strip copper and aluminum. If you don’t have that why mine?

I like century aluminum because of this.

RIO TINTO HAS SUSPENDED ALL MINING OPERATIONS AT ITS KENNECOTT FACILITY.


It's obviously going to tank cause they are delaying Rubin quite a bit.

Summary: Bearish NVDA post-earnings on Rubin delay.

@jukan05 It’s obviously going to tank cause they are delaying Rubin quite a bit.

What do you think NVIDIA’s stock will do after earnings?


Summary: Decisive short call on Amkor.


Summary: Implied buy signal on Intel this month.

If you’re not buying Intel this month. https://t.co/7LC1hSav41


Summary: Bullish on Carrier, implicitly as a play on AI-driven HVAC/cooling demand.

industry='Building Products & Equipment'

@bubbleboi i know its not the heat you mean,

But its funny to think that cooling as a product (hvac) in regards to AI is like 2% or less of their total revenue

you would think hvac stocks would be up rn considering the cooling demand and insane lead times

but its just like.. literally


I'm buying a stake in Sanrio, the makers of Hello Kitty. This might be the most asymmetric trade in kitty history and one of the most juiciest AI trades there ever was

Summary: Buying Sanrio long: pure-IP licensing model + AI royalty upside with scandal-driven discount; base case +24% OP, bull case +50% with re-rating to tech multiple.

I’m buying a stake in Sanrio, the makers of Hello Kitty. 🐱🎀

This might be the most asymmetric trade in kitty history and one of the most juiciest AI trades there ever was… this cat has nine lives and one of them is as an AI winner.

Let me explain..

In 2020 Tomokuni Tsuji the grandson of the founder of hello kitty takes over and becomes the youngest CEO of a listed Japanese company, he immediately pivoted hello kitty away from retail and manufacturing and to a pure IP licensing business. The turnaround story has been absurd. Operating profits went from ¥2.5B to ¥13.2B to now ¥27B from 2022 to 2024, and crossed a trillion yen market cap in the same year, in the first half FY26 sales are up 39.6% at an 80.4% gross margins approaching eighty percent making even Jensen Huang jealous.

Now what people aren’t talking about is that AI’s whole value prop is to train on high quality IP and license it at near infinite incremental margin. Sanrio already became that company and no one is going to win the Japanese market without access to Hello Kitty for their world model.

In the AI era a character stops being a plush toy and becomes a licensed endpoint. AI companions, generative games, virtual influencers, on device assistants, image and video models that all need pre cleared brand safe IP to plug in. This is the exact path every media company will eventually get forced down. Disney, Nintendo, Warner, all of them will stop making things and become the royalty layer. Sanrio was just the first to realize this. Counter intuitively as AI allows you to generate more and more anime for next to nothing the old classic IP becomes more and more valuable. AI is going to do what streaming did to music royalties but for cute anime characters.

And the math behind AI licensing is wild because it’s pure incremental margin. No factory, no inventory, call it 85% flow through. My base case for Hello Kitty is ¥20B in new royalty revenue which is roughly ¥17B added operating profit, about +24% on the ~¥70B FY26 base. My bull case of ¥40B is closer to +50% and gets it re rated from a cute kitty stock to a tech royalty name with a different multiple entirely.

And right now is the PERFECT entry opportunity, the stock is down not because of revenue or threats to the business model it’s down because the board delayed FY26 results and stood up a Special Investigation Committee over improper US director comp. This will have limited earnings impact and doesn’t change the core business, the board already got cleaned up. Stock still trades ~21x vs ~14x for the sector so you are paying up, but it has 11 buy ratings and 0 sells with an average target around ¥1,494.

AI is going to turn their licensing engine into a royalty API with a bow on it. The scandal is a massive discount to fair value and once in a lifetime buying opportunity. The cat is the moat.

But the JPY FX risk is on you. You can pin a pink bow on that and give it to Philippe @coatuemgmt 🎀


Summary: Expects Korean markets to rally but SK (Hynix) to drop ~20%.

The Korean markets will be glorious today. I expect SK to drop like 20%.


Lumentum , unlike other semi companies is a lot less cyclical. They will need to constantly replace the lasers instead of just procuring a huge amount when they're doing a rollout

Summary: Bullish Lumentum: laser replacement-driven recurring demand makes it less cyclical than peers if efficiency claims hold and costs are reasonable to hyperscalers.

Each of these switches have like 48 lasers and the lasers are the most failure prone part hence the redundancy.

If they actually can improve the efficiency claim, and the costs of these lasers isn’t egregiously high to a hyper scaler that means Lumentum , unlike other semi companies is a lot less cyclical. They will need to constantly replace the lasers instead of just procuring a huge amount when they’re doing a rollout and not needing more until there’s a new build out or upgrade cycle.

@bubbleboi What changed from this post to now? Just curious on the updated thesis


Summary: Terse but decisive bullish stance on Broadcom.

@bubbleboi Why aren’t you tweeting about broadcom


Summary: Pair trade: short Samsung and Micron / long SanDisk and Intel.

Ok so the trade is short Samsung Micron / Long Sandisk Intel


This is good cause you get more capacity out of a wafer. So Samsung can increase capacity without much more capex.

Summary: Bullish Samsung: 1d DRAM node improves capital efficiency, more capacity per wafer with lower incremental capex.

Samsung Electronics Preparing Mass Production of 10nm Class 7th Generation "1d DRAM" in First Half of Next Year

Samsung Electronics' next generation DRAM mass production plan is taking concrete shape. The company is currently developing equipment with multiple partners for the https://t.co/7RHKq8zzBf


ASML isn't a good play TSMC shifts capacity and that's the last machine they will expand orders for and even if they do it's incremental to their bottom line

Summary: Bearish ASML as incremental TSMC capacity play; bullish Shin-Etsu Chemical as the smarter EUV photoresist duopoly beneficiary of more advanced logic layers.

ASML isn’t a good play TSMC shifts capacity and that’s the last machine they will expand orders for and even if they do it’s incremental to their bottom line.

Much smarter play is shin etsu chemical they hold a duopoly position for EUV photo resists and more advanced logic = more EUV layers = more photoresist.

$tsm has been the sphincter of the ai market; holding capacity nice and tight

raising price is a precursor to bringing capacity online

Jensen ain’t playing with cc price hikes without getting more wafer supply in return

here come the WFE cos

$acmr $lcrx $amat and even $asml


Much smarter play is shin etsu chemical they hold a duopoly position for EUV photo resists and more advanced logic = more EUV layers = more photoresist


Summary: Buy ACMR ahead of upcoming IPO/public listing.

@masayoshisson They are going public soon just buy them. Acmr makes cleaning equipment they are trying to expand to other shit but it’s marginal now.


Summary: Bullish INTC into September; endorses massive call-options flow as sign something big is coming.

Something big is coming the stars are aligned.

Someone just bought $241,000,000 worth of $INTC calls that expire in September.

I'm sorry what??? https://t.co/Zx2PwcBjfS


Summary: Taking call options on Brent crude; bullish directional bet.

@tailrisked Option calls on Brent here we go.

run it back @bubbleboi https://t.co/o7iOY1uAom


Summary: Buying INTC calls as a bullish recovery trade.

@vin_sachi Intel calls as an infinite funding source is my game plan to come back.

@bubbleboi I’ll seed you five bucks homie, you’ll be back in no time


when you actually zoom out and look at the earnings of these companies it's still very cheap in aggregate. This is just the start also. Earnings of companies delivering real value to AI inference economics is going to grow in line with AI proliferation

Summary: Semis are not a bubble; cheap on earnings, AI-driven growth is just starting — stay long quality names with real AI value propositions.

A lot of people have been calling semis a bubble but when you actually zoom out and look at the earnings of these companies it’s still very cheap in aggregate.

The market was pricing this in last year for a handful of names but the explosion in earnings over past two quarters has been stupendous. Almost anyone selling vol on these companies has been ran over as they almost all surprised to the upside.

This is just the start also. Earnings of companies delivering real value to AI inference economics is going to grow in line with AI proliferation. We are all going to get rich, don’t need to be too fancy right now just chase quality companies with a real value proposition not the trendy short lived bottle necks.


Summary: Bullish on Intel, Sandisk, Lumentum, Astera, and JetCool as among the best-positioned companies.

There are very few companies on earth more well positioned than Intel, Sandisk, Lumentum, and Astera.

---

Oh and JetCool.


There are very few companies on earth more well positioned than Intel, Sandisk


There are very few companies on earth more well positioned than Intel, Sandisk, Lumentum


There are very few companies on earth more well positioned than Intel, Sandisk, Lumentum, and Astera


Summary: Top 5 held positions: Intel, Sandisk, Kioxia, Astera, Flex.

@ScottLe34203798 Intel, Sandisk, Kioxia, Astera, flex

@bubbleboi Yo bubble boi what are your top 5 holdings right now ?


Summary: Bearish both AVGO and MRVL on ASIC design commoditization from fabs/Taiwan players/in-house hyperscaler tooling; MRVL more exposed given higher % of revenue from concentrated ASIC deals.

I like Broadcom & they do have the best networking hardware, SERDES bar none. But the asic design house business is a race to the bottom.

Fabs like Intel are planning to take a piece of that business soon and there are tons of smaller asic design houses in Taiwan taking market share. Additionally, lot of the hyperscalers are moving to in house custom tooling which is bearish both asic design and EDA.

So what we are seeing isn’t actually just bearish Broadcom it’s bearish Marvel as well. Marvel actually makes more of their revenue as a % from these ASIC design deals than Broadcom does but it’s waaaaaay less revenue, additionally it’s concentrated in just a handful of customers.

Management and investors are anchoring wayyyy too hard on the asic design businesses which are smaller slices of the pie and not the hugely more valuable scale out networking.

---

By the way the reason they are doing this is it’s easier to insider trade off.

If you’re an engineer at Google or Amazon you can get a really great dinner with some hedge fund PMs and tell them what new asic designer you’re evaluating.

Lot harder to evaluate the performance difference of a tomahawk switch vs a teralynx switch.


So what we are seeing isn't actually just bearish Broadcom it's bearish Marvel as well. Marvel actually makes more of their revenue as a % from these ASIC design deals than Broadcom does but it's waaaaaay less revenue, additionally it's concentrated in just a handful of customers


don't think China can't flood the market with GaN & SiC like they are doing with InP. It's why I thought this trade was retarded from the start

Summary: Bearish GaN/SiC power semis on China flooding risk and 2-3yr earnings lag; prefers WFE names and full-system providers (transformers, inverters) as better risk/reward.

GaN/SiC players: Wolfspeed, onsemi, STMicro, Aehr Test

Everyone just read a random Taiwanese publication and just threw reason to the side. Market is more reactionary than anticipatory.

My channel checks are with every data center construction project manager in the country and they tell me no plans to do this anytime soon. In fact, even the suppliers need time to ramp production and Texas Instruments specifically has been vocal about this. So it’s going to take 2-3 years before we see it hit earnings but everyone is just prebidding what they think the attach rate of these components are.

Not to mention, don’t think China can’t flood the market with GaN & SiC like they are doing with InP. It’s why I thought this trade was retarded from the start. Better risk reward imo is WFE (it’s very different names for SiC) & people who provide full systems like transformers, inverters, etc.


Better risk reward imo is WFE (it's very different names for SiC)

Wafer fab equipment basket incl SiC-relevant names


Summary: Short NVDA on shaky Rubin ramp, weak networking revenue, TPU growth, and rising ASIC competition with better TCO.

Nvidia looking like a great short right about now. Rubin ramp looking shaky, networking revenue looking garbage, TPU ramping, more & more ASIC-X coming to market with better TCO.

Looks like an amazing setup.


Summary: Bullish on Sanrio; cheering continued premarket gains with an implied durable long thesis on IP licensing for AI.

Sanrio is up over 8% since I tweeted it but even more importantly is my thesis was validated that IP licensing from AI companies will be a huge boom.

So far people have focused on compute but compute is worthless without data & you need high quality expert data to get a high


Summary: Urgent sell instruction on SNDK, MU, and ALAB — not the time to hold these positions.

@ScottLe34203798 Not now sell sell sell sell

@bubbleboi Yo Bubbleboi thanks for your interviews … helped me learn a lot about memory and semi conductors . All in on sndk mu and Alab at the moment


Summary: Bullish Broadcom: dominant networking + best SERDES = durable earnings for the foreseeable future.

@Sparertime Agreed the networking business is dominant and having the best SERDES will make them a lot of money for the foreseeable future.

@bubbleboi Look, Broadcom has the highest throughput internet networking switch by a factor of two and it has been out a year, they soon will come out with one twice as fast. The Tpu is on generation 8, you really think some small asic group is going to compete with this? That group doing


Summary: Bullish INTC; author predicts it becomes the next trillion-dollar company.

Intel is the next trillion dollar company.


Summary: Bullish Kioxia; expects it to become a trillion-dollar company.

Kioxia is the next trillion dollar company.


Wouldn't touch it at all probably a loser in long term

Summary: Bearish NVDA long-term; won't touch it, sees it as a loser.

@undrvalue Wouldn’t touch it at all probably a loser in long term

@bubbleboi bubble boi, are you ready to own NVDA


Summary: Bearish NVDA: GPU rental prices already peaked, Rubin ramp failure will flood market with Blackwell supply, worsening oversupply.

There is no GPU shortage. B200 rental prices peaked March 3rd.

It will also get worse as Rubin fails to ramp leading Nvidia to supply more Blackwell. https://t.co/U7ZPhhcSMZ

---

Putting the moving averages on here was so funny lol.


This is soooooooooo bad. Not only a double miss but guiding lower.

Summary: Bearish AAOI on double earnings miss plus below-consensus Q2 guidance.

$AAOI Q1 EARNINGS

• Revenue $151M vs Est. $155M
• EPS ($0.07) vs. Est. ($0.05)
• First shipment of 800G products completed

Q2 Guidance
• Revenue $189M vs Est. $193M
• EPS $0.01 vs. Est. $0.07 https://t.co/S7usiBFooF


Summary: Bullish Kioxia; terse quality verdict implying the company is well-positioned.

@shreyas_hn @zephyr_z9 @jnconkle Kioxia has the keys to the castle

@bubbleboi @zephyr_z9 @jnconkle What about kioxia? Do you still like it ?


Summary: Bearish MU on the Anthropic deal, dismissing it as shameless promotion rather than a value-adding strategic move.

Micron should focus on making good memory and leave the speculation to me.

Massively bearish and shameless promotion.

SITUATION DETECTED: Micron has announced a strategic agreement with Anthropic covering memory and storage AI architecture, a supply deal, enterprise deployment of Claude, and an investment in Anthropic’s Series H.


Fair value of Sandisk is 600B market cap. Meaning it's 5k by end of year. People can't get enough flash.

Summary: Long Sandisk to $5,000/share (600B market cap) by year-end on insatiable flash demand.

Fair value of Sandisk is 600B market cap. Meaning it’s 5k by end of year. People can’t get enough flash.


Nvidia is going to crash 50%. The thing is I have actually no reason to not believe it. There's a lot of accounting, smoke and mirrors they've been doing as of late.

Summary: Bearish NVDA: author believes Burry's accounting fraud allegations and calls for a 50% crash on off-balance-sheet manipulation.

If this is even partially true, Nvidia is going to crash 50%. The thing is I have actually no reason to not believe it. There’s a lot of accounting, smoke and mirrors they’ve been doing as of late.

🚨Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers.

Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake.

He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that https://t.co/Sy6wFhHLnl


Summary: Bearish QCOM; author wants the Tenstorrent acquisition to happen so they can short it again.

I hope they do so I can short Qualcomm again.

The scoops don't stop!

Qualcomm has been in talks to acquire AI chip startup Tenstorrent. A price b/w $8-$10b has been floated in convos, which would represent a big premium to the $3.2b Tenstorrent was trying to raise at in November.

w/ @validapau

https://t.co/IWMXjtZrre


Summary: Author rejects overbought thesis on SanDisk, calling it too cheap — implicit bullish stance.

SanDisk spun off from WDC and trades as SNDK

JUST IN: SanDisk is officially the most overbought stock in history as its RSI breaks above 99.


EDA is a short. Google TPU team is automating more and more as well.

Summary: Short EDA companies as Google and OpenAI automate chip design workflows.

I wonder how EDA companies will interpret this.

Do you think OpenAI will try to sell these solutions externally? https://t.co/VBxAHwnLvx


Summary: Endorses thesis: INTC becomes TSMC rival, $1T market cap, high PE acceptable for foundry on PB basis.

Thank you Chinese kitten. I agree with all of this!

Herman Jin 关于半导体的看法：

1. INTC最终会成为TSMC的竞争对手，市值破1万亿没问题。

2. foundry公司要看PB，而不是PE。所以INTC 100多倍的PE没有问题

3. INTC的风险是未来达成目标之前出现的一些小插曲，小意外，比如良率是否能迅速提高，磨合，产品deliver的问题。

4.


Summary: Bullish ALAB despite high PE; 100% annual growth likely to accelerate.

@ScottLe34203798 @coupesoleil They are growing at 100% a year and probably are going to grow even faster soon.

@bubbleboi @coupesoleil Even if ALAB is super elevated at these prices with a super high PE ratio ?


I'm not selling Intel until it's a 2 trillion dollar company

Summary: Holding INTC long-term targeting ~$2T market cap; decisive bullish commitment.

@Jake36334569 I’m not selling Intel until it’s a 2 trillion dollar company

@bubbleboi Are you still gonna hold INTC then?


Summary: Sandisk called a value stock; implied bullish.


Summary: Bearish Micron into Wednesday print; Anthropic deal dismissed as a last-ditch pump; expects Micron to drag the broader market down.

Bro micron will fucking kill the stock market on Wednesday. That anthropic deal is a last pump to stay alive.

We are screeeeeeeeweed.


Summary: Long Sanrio; author is buying a stake, calling it asymmetric AI trade with stock going up.

I’m buying a stake in Sanrio, the makers of Hello Kitty. 🐱🎀

This might be the most asymmetric trade in kitty history and one of the most juiciest AI trades there ever was… this cat has nine lives and one of them is as an AI winner.

Let me explain..

In 2020 Tomokuni Tsuji https://t.co/7UVhog9nhl


Summary: Disagrees with parent; calls Synopsys and Cadence big shorts.

Market refuses to bid up Synopsys & Cadence, semiconductor companies in electronic design automation (EDA) because they are software and "software is screwed".

In my opinion, probably a mistake $SNPS $CDNS https://t.co/bpkb8SoyDC


Summary: Intel 18A execution seen as a genuine leap over TSMC; author convinced Intel has pulled off a process technology breakthrough.

I’m shaking.

I can’t believe it. The pod bros won’t understand, nobody will. But look .. Look closer…

Look at the gate pitch. The uniformity of the inner spacer between each sheet. They made the NMOS sheets ~50% wider than PMOS, trading sheet width to equalize n/p drive strength without burning area on extra fins. The dielectric sub-fin underneath kills any sub-channel leakage path to the substrate. And the power via. Landing clean on the backside metal, nanometers of alignment, no contention with M0 up top.

It’s… it’s… perfect. I can’t believe it, it’s been almost two years but they finally pulled it off. They really are going to leap frog TSMC.

God
It’s.
So.
Peak. 😩😩😩

Intel 18A is a game changer. This is an absolutely amazing TEM image of the nanosheet & power via patterning at play here in this device. Flawless. https://t.co/IF3ajHHdfJ


CXL is going to be the biggest change in AI serving since NVlink

Summary: Bullish ALAB as CXL technology positioned as transformational for AI serving infrastructure.

Gavin Baker built a massive position in $ALAB around the AI infrastructure theme, and the stock has now crossed $300. He thinks AI is different and that we are NOT in a bubble.

He expresses this thesis behind many of his top holdings, including $NVDA, $MU, and $AMZN. https://t.co/l2VIOqQomR


Summary: Bearish MU: inferior HBM, 16-high stack ceiling limits TAM, and NVDA/SK multi-year co-development partnership squeezes them out.

How is micron a long while the following is true:

1) They make the worse HBM
2) HBM can’t get past 16-high stacks, limiting their market size
3) Nvidia & SK announced a multi-year partnership to “co-develop” memory together.

The answer is Micron is actually making more money off of DDR.


Summary: Decisive buy recommendation on Sandisk, repeated accumulation implied.

@sorianmaran Just buy Sandisk over and over

Bought $MU on this nonsense bearishness from NVDA rearchitecture.

It's obvious the rearchitecture is because all memory is sold out and nothing else.

Yes memory prices will collapse at some point.

No its not anytime soon.

Wake me up when my mom is managing multiple agents


Summary: Broadcom wins CPO over Nvidia; CPO 5+ years out, photonics unreliable — long AVGO, skeptical of NVDA's Spectrum-6 approach.

I’m sorry but this was obvious to anyone with a brain. Photonics reliability is garbage and CPO isn’t happening for at least 5 more years.

Also if it does happen it will be Broadcom who wins it not Nvidia.

LONG $AVGO $MRVL

Key Points

>CPO co-packaged optics technology is actively advancing

>NVIDIA Spectrum-6 Ethernet version experiences optical loss over 3.5dB higher than previous generation

>Active alignment requires sub-micron precision with over one hundred operations per


NVIDIA Spectrum-6 Ethernet version experiences optical loss over 3.5dB higher than previous generation


Summary: Decisively bullish on Kioxia ahead of its planned US ADS listing.

Kioxia, the Japanese NAND Flash memory chip giant, plans to list shares on a U.S. stock exchange “to grow its investor base and increase its corporate value,” the company said, noting details of the planned ADS listing, including which market, have not yet been decided. $MU


Summary: Bullish INTC; advanced packaging (EMIB) with existing customers is an underappreciated tailwind the market hasn't fully priced in.

“But ontop of this we also have the added wind to their sails with the fact that the advanced packaging side of the business with EMIB already has tons of customers.”

How did everyone miss it?

Everyone asking me is it too late to buy Intel… TLDR it’s not !

What we are seeing in the stock price right now is only the effects of Wall Street realizing what I’ve been saying for the past year. This stock price only reflects two upgrades, Key Bank & Citi (who was the most https://t.co/QMYGcS1ScB


Summary: Long oil and long Intel as the only way out of current conditions.

Long oil and long Intel. Only way out of this.


EDA bulls are pitching 70x earnings on companies that are getting their IP business eaten by in-house hyperscaler teams. Synopsys income from design IP dropped 48% in Q1… The 'AI' story people are shilling isn't going to fix that problem… they lost the ability to sell to China which was their fastest growing market. It's the easiest pair trade I've seen in my life.

Summary: Pair trade: short Synopsys on IP revenue collapse, China loss, and AI seat-reduction risk; long Chinese EDA players Empyrean and Primarius on policy-mandated domestic adoption.

EDA bulls are pitching 70x earnings on companies that are getting their IP business eaten by in-house hyperscaler teams. Synopsys income from design IP dropped 48% in Q1 of this year from $126.5M to $66.1M… The “AI” story people are shilling isn’t going to fix that problem and in actuality if successful leads to you needing less seats not more.

Meanwhile they lost the ability to sell to China which was their fastest growing market. The Chinese EDA companies on the other hand like Empyrean, Primarius, are going crazy and are both growing revenue double digits because the entire Chinese semi industry is required by policy to use them.

It’s the easiest pair trade I’ve seen in my life.


The Chinese EDA companies on the other hand like Empyrean, Primarius, are going crazy and are both growing revenue double digits because the entire Chinese semi industry is required by policy to use them.

Empyrean Technology (华大九天), Shenzhen-listed Chinese EDA firm


I've always loved Astera a lot of fund managers didn't understand but hope you do now

Summary: Bullish Astera Labs and FPGAs; author has long favored both despite prior market skepticism.

I’ve always loved Astera a lot of fund managers didn’t understand but hope you do now. I also like FPGAs.


FPGA market: AMD(Xilinx), Intel(Altera), Lattice Semi


packaging is likely to turn into an 80B+ a year business. Again trust me when I say this, these people know absolutely nothing about chip design and are applying the mental models of the early 2000s to what's going to be a revolution in the semiconductor industry. You can't expect them to know how to price that

Summary: Strongly bullish INTC: dismisses MS yield concerns, argues 18A yield improving to 60-65%, packaging poised to be 80B+ business, market massively mispricing a semiconductor revolution.

Fuck Morgan Stanley. They are idiots.

It’s been improving 5-7% for the past 6 months meaning it’s between 60-65% now. Also who cares anyway? No one is designing for 18A anyway only 14A & 18AP now while packaging is likely to turn into an 80B+ a year business.

Again trust me when I say this, these people know absolutely nothing about chip design and are applying the mental models of the early 2000s to what’s going to be a revolution in the semiconductor industry. You can’t expect them to know how to price that, I’ve been ahead of even UBS in estimate EMIB revenue.

Morgan Stanley estimates Intel 18A yield at 50%.

It also notes that Apple is currently the only customer that has “signed a contract.”

$INTC https://t.co/i9hBtiaqyP


Summary: Expects MediaTek to list in Hong Kong soon, implying expanded investor access and bullish lean.

@0xHunter_0x50 Ah I see, well lol mediatek will probably be listed in Hong Kong in no time

@bubbleboi 联发科 台湾市场禁止 中国大陆交易者 哪怕是ibkr都不行 （顺便 intc我也看了好几年了 但是很可惜cpu浪潮的时候我的注意力不在市场 错过了等待好几年的机会 但是他们能找到陈立武 这么出色的ceo 真的是让我吃惊  我还记得当时大家都不知道这是谁 市场一点反应都没有 真是善战者无赫赫之功 ）


Summary: Endorses JPM's Kioxia PT raise with 42.7% upside; implies more upgrades to come.

JPM just updated its price target for Kioxia, implying 42.7% upside from the current share price. https://t.co/hY3LCrvVJu


Summary: Decisive bullish verdict on Musashi Seimitsu (7220.T).

@DeeDas55 @insane_analyst I love this stock

@bubbleboi @insane_analyst said the same thing 3 weeks back on $7220.T Musashi Seimitsu

He even wrote a substack article on it
https://t.co/KI0xQoG0lF


Summary: Calls Uber a great short.

@tailrisked Was a long time hold for me, probably better positioned against oil prices rising than others.

Uber is a great short u should look into.


Summary: Author implies AAOI is massively overvalued at $175, calling fair value $5.


Summary: Despite personal dislike, CPO delay is a net positive for AAOI; implicitly bullish.

As much as I hate AAOI, CPO being delayed actually helps them.

$aaoi sell off related to the semianalysis note on CPO delay makes no sense. Would expect the stock course correct soon https://t.co/is4NmAqnNC


If they use it for all of Feynman it's 60-80 billion in revenue. Now imagine TPU ontop of that. We are looking at over 100 billion in just packaging revenue not to mention TPU will most likely be on 14A & Nvidia will use 14A for I/O dies and maybe more.

Summary: Bullish INTC: NVIDIA + Google TPU on Intel packaging/18A could generate $60-100B+ in revenue across EMIB, 14A, and Feynman.

I ran the calculations once:

If Nvidia just uses Intel for packaging the I/O die and other peripherals it’s about 4.8 billion in revenue.

If they use it for all of Feynman it’s 60-80 billion in revenue.

Now imagine TPU ontop of that. We are looking at over 100 billion in just packaging revenue not to mention TPU will most likely be on 14A & Nvidia will use 14A for I/O dies and maybe more.

The Information: NVIDIA is testing Intel EMIB packaging for Feynman.

The Information: NVIDIA is conducting early tests of Intel 18A.

$INTC


Summary: Long Astera Labs as only real CXL/scale-up networking play; short Marvell as a pump-and-dump mispriced as an ASIC house.

This is almost like saying any company associated with PCIe will go bananas. This misses the forest from the trees. I am bullish CXL but you need to understand what it actually is to know where the value accrues.

CXL is just a new protocol over the same physical layer PCIe sits on. It’s electrically no different. CXL 1.1/2.0 rides the PCIe 5.0 PHY at 32 GT/s and CXL 3.x rides the PCIe 6.x PHY at 64 GT/s, same connectors, same slots. A CXL device literally negotiates at boot via Alternate Protocol Negotiation, falling back to plain PCIe if the other side doesn’t speak CXL. The entire difference is at the link/transaction layer and semantics. Unlike PCIe you get three sub-protocols with CXL multiplexed on Flex Bus, CXL. I/O (basically PCIe), CXL.cache, and CXL.mem for byte-addressable load/store.

And to back up the point I’m making is you can buy CXL IP from basically anyone. In fact Cadence, Synopsys, even fucking Rambus sells it. There is no moat in just selling IP and the real IP is the SERDES anyway, which is lower bw and easier to make than the top of the line stuff you’d get from Broadcom/Marvell. CXL maxes out at 32G/64G PAM4 per lane riding the PCIe PHY, vs. the 112G/224G SerDes people are pushing for Ethernet/scale-out. It’s in a completely different league than what CXL needs  and that’s why so many people sell it.

The point here is just like PCIe, you wouldn’t be bullish on a company because it has PCIe IP, you’re bullish the companies using it to solve problems. Additionally, CXL has all kinds of problems itself like down clocking vs. PCIe equivalent, and also the market currently is using it as a “memory expander” which is retarded. You can stick terabytes of DDR next to your socket. Adding it over CXL is just adding complexity and worse performance. The numbers back all back this up and it’s basically a NUMA node hope in latency that you’re paying to bolt on capacity you could’ve gotten from a DIMM slot.

Additionally, CXL really isn’t better than PCIe alone on latency or BW. It’s on the same PHY, so it has the same ceiling. To get the value out of CXL you need tons and tons of CXL cards all networked together, and if you look at Astera they understand that. They’re building CXL switches and a software interconnect layer that actually makes it usable with their Scorpio fabric switches as well as the COSMOS software suite which is the actual product. These aren’t major revenue drivers right now but they will be, it’s not a retimer business long term & it’s not licensing CXL to AI ASIC designers either they will just go with a plethora of other options. It’s the whole stack, from IP, switches, software, your own cards you become a one stop solution for scale up networking that isn’t locked into a walled garden.

If you look at their financial results it shows the value add they made $308M in revenue last quarter, +93% YoY, into a scale-up switch market projected at $20B by 2030. This is just switches, retimers, & IP the orchestration software will be huge eventually too and will have near 100% margins. You buy the switch, you buy the cards, you buy the cables, & man that software just makes it so easy I don’t want to switch now I got a huge data center to run it ain’t worth it.

That’s the thesis.

There are literally no good CXL plays other than Astera for that reason. Marvell which you would think should be competing is just a pump and dump by the management team to take your money and put it in their pockets and wall street is pricing them as an asic design house not realizing the asic design business is just IT outsourcing.

So trust me on this, I’ve spent a long time thinking about it and made a lot of money from it. Most of you are retarded, broke, and easily swayed while I am none of those things.

Any company associated with CXL will go bananas


Marvell which you would think should be competing is just a pump and dump by the management team to take your money and put it in their pockets


Summary: Bearish semis: calls the sector a bubble set to collapse ~88% within months.

Bro the semis bubble is going to pop. The whole sector is going down -88% in a few more months… it’s so sad because it was so much fun while it lasted.


I'm short the currency and builders in India

Summary: Short the Indian rupee and Indian homebuilder/construction stocks.

Indian real estate/construction majors on NSE

Leopold is a lot more sophisticated than he comes off the Infosys short is really played out though I’m short the currency and builders in India.  https://t.co/VJzU4NdeAy


Summary: Discloses ongoing long position in ASML, dismissing concern over alleged EUV machine export to China.

@bgmasters Blake you know we are both long ASML. An EUV machine didn’t ship there, they stole the source only. You can’t steal the whole machine it’s impractical.

Also if they had the real machine there would be stronger signal than this. Trust me pal.

ASML’s “we have never shipped an EUV machine to China” is telling on itself. Total lawyer answer. They know a decommissioned machine slipped through, at tremendous cost to American national security. https://t.co/hN1Q68JJRQ


Summary: SNDK will reach $3k by September despite extreme overbought conditions.

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE.

SNDK just became the most overbought stock in the history of the US stock market.

Monthly RSI: 99.19. https://t.co/yZ2aoUfhB6


Pod bros message me about astera all the time asking me why I'm bullish. The engineering problem Astera is solving with CXL & the stuff around it is extremely valuable.

Summary: Bullish ALAB on CXL engineering value; dismisses copper/optics/retimer framing as anchoring bias, sees superior moat vs CUDA in next-gen interconnect.

Pod bros message me about astera all the time asking me why I’m bullish.

It has nothing to do with copper, optics, retimers nada. That is their biggest business today so it makes sense why people anchor on that but I see what’s coming next.

The engineering problem Astera is solving with CXL & the stuff around it is extremely valuable. People think CUDA is a moat, lol not even close and you see it with ASIC-X. The real moat is the next step & Nvidia is losing badly there.

$ALAB

Did you know that Astera Labs, commonly seen as a copper company, actually has an LPO solution? https://t.co/FUD1POobTD


Summary: Confirms ALAB is a top-5 holding; live long position.

@bubbleboi Does that mean you are long / bullish $ALAB ?


Summary: Short TSMC via puts, long ASML and preferring Applied Materials as the better long; July seen as cycle peak.

Leopold’s 13F is showing exactly what I’ve been saying… July is the peak of the cycle!

The TSMC puts & ASML long is all you need to know! But Leo Applied Materials is the better long, trust me leooooooooooo!


Leo Applied Materials is the better long, trust me


Summary: Long INTC as the sole winner of copackaged silicon photonics via EMIB; Lumentum and Coherent explicitly ruled out as beneficiaries.

TSMC fumbles Copackaged optics for the Nth time like some fucking donkeys and now the whole industry is limping towards NPO, and the pod bros who price the entire AI TAM off Nvidia’s BOM line items still can’t actually explain what the problem is. So let me do the engineering for you, since clearly nobody on here will.

The bottleneck was never can you make light go through a waveguide. It’s all fucking thermals which is downstream of packaging. Specifically, how do you get a photonic engine onto the same substrate as a switch ASIC or XPU without your yield falling off a cliff and your reliability failing.

TSMC’s answer is CoWoS where they bolt everything onto one big monolithic silicon interposer. Cute, until you hit the reticle limit and start duct-taping interposers together (CoWoS-S, then -R, then -L, soon -PleaseStop). Every chiplet and HBM stack you add to that single interposer compounds your defect probability and one bad die leads to a five-figure package going into the dumpster. CoWoS is thermally retarded and the whole industry knows this and it’s why capacity “can’t expand” and Jensen is acting like a bouncer in the front of a club choosing who gets pass the velvet rope.

There is ONLY one company that will make copackaged optics work and expand in the rack… it’s not Lumentum, it’s not Coherent, it’s fucking INTELLLL.

Intel’s EMIB gets rid of a giant reticle limited interposer and replaces it with a tiny silicon bridge that does the high-density coupling locally, exactly where you need it. You localize the hard part and the thermals in one area and your yield is ridiculously high. Comparing EMIB & CoWoS is so funny cause EMIB is north of 95% yield with like 12 reticle size equivalent package while CoWoS falls off a cliff after 5.5 reticles it’s that bad…now imagine adding thermally sensitive photonics.

People don’t know this but Intel has been doing silicon photonics in-house for ~25 years... In 2024 they showed an Optical I/O chiplet doing 2 Tbps bidirectionally at ~5 pJ/bit, with the PIC and EIC co-packaged right against the ASIC and it’s all because of EMIB. And even more critically than that, they’ve actually run the fiber-attach and reliability/test flow to JEDEC-grade standards already, which everyone hand-waves until their links flap in production.

My prediction is clear: Intel will capture over 90% of the copackaged silicon photonics market in the next five years because there is NO ALTERNATIVE.


Summary: Author endorses Intel foundry hire as hugely bullish for INTC.

INTEL APPOINTS FORMER SK HYNIX CEO SEOK-HEE LEE AS EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OF INTEL FOUNDRY. https://t.co/KbFQft8KGI