Summary: Bullish on inference chips: if training efficiency plateaus, compute spend shifts to inference at a 1:4 ratio vs training.

Inference chip leaders: Nvidia, AMD, Intel, Qualcomm, Marvell

Wow if true this is going to lead to way more money being spent on inference chips rather than training.

Training/inference compute might become 1:4 ratio.

ChatGPT 4.5 is so underwhelming, it made NVDIA and the whole AI landscape tank.

Turns out ten times the GPUs only makes the model 5% better at this point. It barely makes a difference and just burns energy & money like crazy.

OpenAI's brand value is the only moat they have https://t.co/jBCUILQetw


Summary: Strongly bullish INTC; dismisses EU retaliation fears as overblown and urges aggressive buying.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

Don’t listen to him, this is fear. Buy as much intel as you can, go into debt if you have to.

Calling it now, the EU will cut America off access to ASML, zeiss euv mirrors, and nanotesting for chips manufacturing in retaliation to trump being a traitor.


Summary: Buy META now.

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: Bearish on AI ASICs (Broadcom's main AI chip growth thesis), endorsing Jensen's skepticism that custom ASICs rarely beat best-in-class GPUs at volume.

Nah he really cooked them im not bullish on AI ASICS for this reason either. Google or Meta is going to them like hey I need to do XYZ and they throw a systolic array at it and call it a day.

Following his keynote, I asked Jensen about Broadcom’s prediction that it will gain AI chip share. Jensen replied: "A lot of ASICs get canceled" "The ASIC still has to be better than the best. How do they know it's going to be the best, so that it will be deployed in volume?" https://t.co/N3uhdfk79e


Summary: Short MELANIA token; dismisses economic rationale behind it.

MELANIA meme token, pass-through crypto ticker

Shorting $MELANIA token, no good economic sense coming from a Slovenian im sorry.


Summary: Pair trade: short NVDA, long INTC at 3:1 ratio weighted by volatility.

@Blakesmusings Yeah short Nvidia long Intel, but it’s weighed by volatility. So I’m like 3:1 Intel vs Nvidia.

@bubbleboi You have a pairs trade going?


If you want to make money this week you should short nvidia those b200's ain't ever dropping.

Summary: Short NVDA this week; B200s not dropping in price as a bearish catalyst.

If you want to make money this week you should short nvidia those b200’s ain’t ever dropping.

thank you for the information mit dude https://t.co/ynuF2gdrdW


Summary: All-in on INTC on 18A node buzz and rumored USG/TSMC rescue.

Re $INTC surging... In addition to what VP JD Vance pronounced, it is rumored that

(a) 18A will be the best-performing 2-nm class node, per SemiWiki

(b) USG is forcing TSMC to rescue Intel, presumably because Intel's process/roadmap doesn't cut it?)

One, or both, are wrong?


Summary: Bullish on Intel; calling for more buying now.


I'm leverage 5:1 on Intel stock using CFDs

Summary: Leveraged 5:1 long INTC via CFDs, bullish on USMC contract catalyst.

I’m leverage 5:1 on Intel stock using CFDs. We will get USMC inshallah.


Summary: Bullish AAPL: on-device AI privacy moat is real and Apple's deliberate approach will pay off.

He isn’t wrong.

Even if you ran llama7B on an iPhone it would be slow and make ur phone’s battery die in an hour.

On device AI is a real moat & when you think about security it’s critical. Chat bots store everything about you in a database add ontop real time telemetry, your messages, calls, etc. the privacy violation becomes even more significant.

Apple is the only phone company that actually values privacy to the point that they nuked facebooks revenue for spying on us.

I will stand against the slop.
Let Apple cook.

Craig Federighi says no one is doing on-device AI well right now. Not even Apple.

“We're not rushing out the wrong features just to be first.”

Now the mission is clear: Fix Siri -- or fall behind for good. https://t.co/PGioMAbwjM


Summary: Explicitly shorting ASML, disagreeing with quoted bullish thesis.

industry='Semiconductor Equipment & Materials'

Took a sizable position in $ASML.

If you follow $INTC and $TSM you know of the technological war between the two, either TSMC follows up with the purchase of High NA machines or basically surrenders to Intel technological leadership.

$ASML at this price is a strong buy


Summary: Long AAPL: fewer GPU orders frees up 2nm capacity for Apple, and M-series inference is a major upcoming catalyst.

@alexocheema Also if orders of GPUs do fall means more 2 nm capacity for Apple. Inference on m series is going to be big.

Market close: $NVDA: -16.91% | $AAPL: +3.21%

Why is DeepSeek great for Apple?

Here's a breakdown of the chips that can run DeepSeek V3 and R1 on the market now:
NVIDIA H100: 80GB @ 3TB/s, $25,000, $312.50 per GB
AMD MI300X: 192GB @ 5.3TB/s, $20,000, $104.17 per GB
Apple M2 https://t.co/PpnnP2AQMr


Summary: Long INTC; targets $40 by EOY with $60 also in sight, implying 300-400B market cap.

Smh paper hands. My hands are made of diamond.

Intel will hit $40 a share by end of year. $60 is in site too. A 300-400 billion market cap.

I am no longer an $INTC shareholder at this time, I will keep following the company and post about it.
I will also continue with the $INTC weekly spaces.

I think $INTC is an extremely interesting company, and would love to invest in it again, I am looking for things to clear up.


Summary: Long INTC with $45/share buyout target; author holds a large position and argues government acquisition/asset split is necessary.

Intel is too big to fail.

The U.S. government must buy them out and broker a deal to split their assets, preferably at $45 a share.

---

(I own a lot of Intel stock)


Summary: Strongly bullish INTC: 18A node will be best ever, Jim Keller as CEO + Tenstorrent acquisition would unlock mobile/AI upside; $1T valuation target.

Intel is a 1 trillion dollar company.
Jim Keller knows this. The board is fucking retarded. 18A will be the best process node of all time.

They need to install Jim Keller as CEO & buy out Tensortorrent. It will give Intel a foot hold in the growing mobile and AI sector.

Intel to the moon.


I keep hearing this common trope from tech twitter that ASML is some sort of giant that can't be stopped. Here is my counter argument

Summary: Bearish ASML: disputes monopoly narrative — key components outsourced, EUV optics replicable, wavelength physics limits future scaling.

I keep hearing this common trope from tech twitter that ASML is some sort of giant that can’t be stopped.

Here is my counter argument:

Photolithography is still very much classical optics - we’ve made many advancements in the field since then. Most of the top labs in the country can do everything ASML does. In fact Lawrence Berkeley National Lab is where most of the EUV optics were qualified. In addition to this, contrary to popular belief ASML doesn’t make most of the parts in their own machine.

The optics are done by Zeiss, the source is another company, the stages use an amalgamation of various components from different suppliers. Even their own research & development is mostly done by IMEC in Belgium. There is no agreement that Zeiss has that they can only sell EUV mirrors to ASML. Various other techniques for generating EUV light are starting to be commercialized & so on.

Fundamentally the question comes down to investment and time. It’s not that we can’t compete it’s do we really want to deal with 10 years of pain in order to do so? ASML is stuck on 13.5 nm light, they know they can’t go lower, increasing source power and numerical aperture will hit a wall in our lifetimes.

What will happen next?

$ASML is the strongest monopoly the market just ignores.

Its order book hit all time highs last quarter yet the stock got hammered down.

Here is my full investment thesis: 🧵 https://t.co/cknDPOBjIE


I'm not bullish on Nvidia for inference or inference chips/startups in general

Summary: Not bullish on NVDA for inference: hyperscalers building own silicon (MTIA, Inferentia, TPUs, Maia) undercut Nvidia on performance/watt, threatening its inference market.

I’m not bullish on Nvidia for inference or inference chips/startups in general. Every hyper scalar has their own silicon teams working on these.

Meta has MTIA chip, AWS Inferentia, Google has TPUs, Microsoft is making Azure Maia chips. I’d inference is scaling even more a case that they move away from Nvidia who isn’t good on performance/watt for this.

---

So as an inference startup. Your not competing just with Nvidia you’re competing with every one of the hyper scalars internal design teams & they know the workloads better than you.


Summary: Terse buy recommendation on Intel.

@I_loves_deep_nn Probably better to just buy Intel at this point


Summary: Bearish TSMC, bullish INTC expecting another 15% gain tomorrow.

TSMC is fucking cooked man. Intel to the moon tommorow we get another 15% can I hear you apes 🦧 roar !


Intel to the moon tommorow we get another 15%


Summary: Author expresses intent to buy Intel.

I should buy Intel https://t.co/4mV8RzqcWy


Summary: Bearish NVDA; author thinks the company is cooked and will be acquired by Intel.

I think Nvidia is cooked, Intel will buy them in a few years.


Summary: Nvidia GPU order delays hurt TSMC most and SK Hynix via HBM4 slowdown; Apple benefits by scooping cheap 2nm capacity and becoming the leading consumer inference platform.

As the orders of Nvidia GPUs inevitably get delayed, reduced, or pulled entirely by hyper scalers there will be insane knock on effects.

Apple & Nvidia accounted for like 8% of upcoming 2 nm capacity. That 30k dollar a wafer price is coming down… TSMC will probably be most hurt followed by SK Hynix as HBM4 development gets delayed.

Apple probably gets stronger negotiation power for the capacity now & swoops it up for a song. Probably will become the leading inference platform for consumers.

---

80% lol sorry


followed by SK Hynix as HBM4 development gets delayed


Apple probably gets stronger negotiation power for the capacity now & swoops it up for a song. Probably will become the leading inference platform for consumers


I agree with Bimbo research. I wish I could borrow more money to invest in Intel. Can someone please give me a loan I already took out a home equity line of credit.

Summary: Strongly endorses bullish INTC thesis; leveraging up aggressively to buy more Intel.

$INTC at $19 might have been the buy of the century. MobilEye and Altera alone are $45B. Stock was trading at .85 price to book. Intel can literally still double and be undervalued. Cya at $60


I still believe. The only truly innovative company still in SV while also being fully consumer focused

Summary: Bullish Apple as the only truly innovative consumer-focused SV company with best shot at on-device secure AI.

Let apple cook.

The only truly innovative company still in SV while also being fully consumer focused not b2b bullshit & adware.

If anyone had a chance for cracking on device secure AI it is them…

I still believe.


Everyone I know who is testing out the 18A PDK is telling me it's extremely competitive. Yield will be the make it or break it moment. I'd estimate they are around 40% yield right now but i expect they can match TSMC rumored 60% with less capacity.

Summary: Bullish INTC 18A: PDK feedback extremely competitive, yield path to match TSMC's ~60% is credible.

Everyone I know who is testing out the 18A PDK is telling me it’s extremely competitive.

Yield will be the make it or break it moment. I’d estimate they are around 40% yield right now but i expect they can match TSMC rumored 60% with less capacity.

$INTC

Reuters has been out to get Intel with misleading claims about yield and now implies 18A is delayed. Intel is getting new IP verification done for 18A to be able to satisfy new customers. 18A is still ramping this year for PTL. And always 2H 26 volume for external.


Intel is worth a 200 billion dollars easily. I'm all in.

Summary: All-in long INTC; author values it at $200B, implying significant upside from current levels.

Intel is worth a 200 billion dollars easily. I’m all in. https://t.co/gRjqG0g7P2


Big feeling that the Intel deal will be announced over the holiday break. I current have my entire life savings in it and I'm leverage 200:1.

Summary: Long INTC with entire life savings at 200:1 leverage, expecting acquisition deal announcement over holiday break.

Big feeling that the Intel deal will be announced over the holiday break. Typically done like this to avoid front running.

I current have my entire life savings in it and I’m leverage 200:1. Can’t go belly up.


Summary: Predicts NVDA falls below $1T market cap within 6 months.

My guess is Nvidia goes below 1 trillion in less than 6 months.


Buying Intel is the single smartest thing you can do

Summary: Decisive long Intel call, endorsing 18A BSPDN progress at SPIE 2025 as catalyst.

in SPIE 2025 , intel show 18A BSPDN about information
1)Yield ✔
2)Reliability ✔
3)Thermals✔
4)Debug Capability✔

new old process recipe can mix production and wafer lots capacity allocation achieve reduce cost and increase benefit , it will HVM in Oregon Dev Fab H2 2025 🤓 https://t.co/3d25NlEC7T


Summary: Massively short NVDA into the F4Q24 earnings announcement.

NVIDIA: Preparing for the F4Q24 Earnings Announcement
(Morgan Stanley, 25/2/20)

NVIDIA remains a key driver behind the fluctuations in AI stocks. Although demand for AI chips remains robust, the company’s current quarter products are in a transitional phase—making it critical to


Summary: Bullish INTC on Lip-Bu Tan's leadership; believes new CEO will turn the company around.

I HAVE FULL SUPPORT AND BELIEF IN LIP BU TAN TO TURN INTEL AROUND FINALLY A GOOD CEO TO TAKE CONTROL OF INTEL LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO


Summary: Long INTC to $1T market cap on 18A process node reaching mass production.

Intel is easily a 1 trillion dollar company when 18A reaches mass production.

alhamdulillah


Summary: Going all in on Intel following Lip-Bu Tan's appointment as CEO.

With a name like Lip. 🫦 I’m glazing heavy. All in on Intel.

BREAKING: Intel named Lip-Bu Tan as CEO https://t.co/qSOwuPKxN0


It's only the start. Next will be Broadcom & Nvidia networking. First slowly then all at once.

Summary: Intel's Maia 2 win is just the beginning; expects more major foundry orders from Broadcom and Nvidia networking to follow.

@zephyr_z9 It’s only the start. Next will be Broadcom & Nvidia networking. First slowly then all at once.

Well
Good news for Intel
They won the orders for Maia 2 (Microsoft)


If you asked me to put all my savings in one company and not check for the next 20 years it would be Apple.

Summary: Highest-conviction long AAPL: would put all savings in and hold untouched for 20 years.

Of all the places I've worked I think Apple was the most efficient

Everyone mostly knew what the other frameworks did, very little infighting

I could file a bug saying "My mom would never figure this out" and it would be addressed

We were all on the same page about the mission


Summary: Predicts NVIDIA will use Intel fabs for advanced packaging, implying a win for Intel.

Calling it here Nvidia will use Intel Fabs for advanced packaging.


Summary: Bearish NVDA: shift from training to inference optimization undermines Nvidia's monopoly as inference can run on any hardware including CPUs.

I don’t think people understand how big of a deal this is and what the ripple effects are. If OpenAI starts now pivoting from shipping big new models to focusing on infra and serving which they will have to do to be profitable btw this means

1) Less resources dedicated to big training runs & the death of the $100 million dollar AI researcher who only knows PyTorch.
2) More resources going to optimizing inference and that’s a huge sea change for hardware and the rise of the gigachad line rate byte parsers.

This is bad for Nvidia, very bad. They have a monopoly on training but you can do inference on anything even a plain old CPU and if we are optimizing costs this means people will be more than willing to struggle and work with any inference stack because any energy savings per token is billions in profit at this scale. Nvidia networking with BlueField and Infiniband is not the moat it looks like we can modify Ethernet to do much of the same thing and even better cause at the end of the day PHY is just a PHY and Fiber is just Fiber…

There is a huge opportunity here now and I’m not going to lie I saw this months ago and that’s why I named my company “Bubble Computing” @bubble_comp. Me & my team knew that the writing was on the wall the second Sam Altman started looking for HFT engineers of all places .. hmm.. wonder what AI inference and HFT have in common…

The bubble has popped, it’s picks and shovels all the way down & that’s what we are going to do.

RIP AI Research Bubble 2023-2025

NEWS: OpenAI believes it will become a mini-hyper scaler like AWS in the future by renting out compute

“I do think about it as a business down the line, for sure” - OpenAI CFO https://t.co/clsGMPOVgh


Oh Man U don't even know the half of what they have

Summary: Bullish META; implies the sEMG wristband is just a fraction of what Meta has in the pipeline.

@ns123abc Oh Man U don’t even know the half of what they have

META researchers are developing a wrist band that lets people control a computer using hand gestures

> surface electromyography (sEMG)
> can be used immediately without surgical intervention
> simpler alternative to Neuralink
> published the paper in Nature

ACCELERATE https://t.co/XSwLYOkoLk


Summary: Predicts Intel will outperform Nvidia in 2026; implicitly bullish INTC, relatively bearish NVDA.

Big prediction for 2026. Intel will out perform Nvidia.

---

Again


I am still short AMD and will be doubling that position tomorrow. Not one gigawatt cluster made of AMD GPUs will ever be built.

Summary: Short AMD, doubling position; claims no gigawatt-scale GPU cluster will ever be built on AMD hardware.

$NVDA CEO: "I’m surprised that they ( $AMD) would give away 10% of the company before they even built it. And so anyhow, it’s clever, I guess." https://t.co/X4PbPiCkvc


Summary: Endorses Intel hitting $100/share.

Me when intel's stock hits $100 per share https://t.co/tr4EuUDYhA


Summary: Long INTC with $64 PT for next year; bullish on 18A yield ramp, advanced packaging leadership, and legacy product demand.

Taking a much needed vacation after this earnings and the past few weeks. Will update people with my more in-depth Intel analysis when I get back.

But TLDR; the stock is fairly valued. My price target is $64 a share for next year. The move from $19 to $40 was obvious and just took some business acumen.

The next move higher will take skill . 18a yields are improving at 3-5% a month which means by sometime mid next year I expect them to be at 70%.  18 AP is hitting his goals and will probably be the moment where customer adoption really takes off.

Even though gross margin on 18A is something that  could be a short term negative. I think giving up some margin to capture market share is the smart move. Another thing that will be become important is transitioning customers from Intel eight to the higher nodes and processors. There is still a huge demand for these legacy products. I myself am using them.

And finally, some good news it seems like there’s a lot of interest in advanced packaging from Intel. They are real leader here and this is a hot space right now. This should help buffer any hiccups on the road.


This tells you everything you need to know about Nvidia GPUs.

Summary: Bullish NVDA: Meta/Google $10B+ cloud deal for Nvidia GPUs signals dominant demand for its hardware.

scoop from @KalleyHuang and @KevKubernetes: Google has struck a major cloud computing deal with Meta.

The deal—worth more than $10 billion over six years—is one of the largest known agreements in Google Cloud’s history.

And it's for Nvidia GPUs.

https://t.co/9k0zyjSIps


Summary: Strongly bullish Intel on US government nationalization thesis; dismisses bears as pseudo-intellectuals and frames it as easy money.

"Mom how did we get so rich"

"Your dad bet all his money on the U.S. Government nationalizing its only leading edge semiconductor fab while all the pseudo intellectuals on twitter said they were cooked" https://t.co/UybK53hfI0

---

like taking money from a baby


There is no company on earth I am more bearish on than AMD. No vision, no direction, just straight up if "where's my hug?" was a company.

Summary: Strongly bearish AMD; author claims no vision or direction, most bearish on any company.

There is no company on earth I am more bearish on than AMD. No vision, no direction, just straight up if “where’s my hug?” was a company.

As we mentioned back in April, AMD is in war mode and has developed a new sense of urgency. With this urgency, their software engineers are working harder and smarter than ever to fix bugs and improve the ROCm user experience, all with the goal of matching the CUDA experience. https://t.co/7ji5rr6Log


Summary: Loaded up on Intel calls ahead of earnings and Panther Lake launch catalyst.

The stock market has completely collapsed. I’ve been liquidated. I’ve lost everything…

Everything except for one ☝🏻 thing. I sold it all and loaded up BIGLY on Intel Calls. Earnings is around the corner, Panther Lake coming to a store near you, I’m buying up as many chips as I can.


Someone is buying hand over fist 👊 Intel common stock. I see it in the order book, could be the government, could be a third party. Wake up early tomorrow.

Summary: Unusual order-book buying in INTC; implies big news imminent and a positive catalyst ahead.

$INTC Yesterday’s chart and daily candle did not indicate Intel being this nicely green, or green at all.

I suspect some big news coming out soon and someone already knows.


Nvidia will be moving their NICs & Networking equipment to Intel Fabs as well. Intel has superior SERDES & photonics only makes sense

Summary: Bullish Intel: rumored Nvidia NIC/networking wins at Intel fabs, citing superior SERDES and photonics capabilities.

I’m hearing 👂 rumors from my sources Nvidia will be moving their NICs & Networking equipment to Intel Fabs as well.

It’s their fastest growing revenue segment, Intel has superior SERDES & photonics only makes sense.


Summary: Bullish BTQ; expects the stock to move significantly on this hire/development news.

I feel like this one might do numbers. https://t.co/gH75f5a01f

big personal news! i’ve joined @BTQ_Tech $BTQ full time to focus on building the most efficient and secure post quantum cryptography chips and IP in the world


Summary: Long INTC to $100+/share (~$365B mkt cap) on 14A node lead, High NA EUV monopoly, and foundry share gains from TSMC; short TSMC on ~40% advanced node share loss.

What’s the story with Intel so far? And where is it going next. If you haven’t been trading as long as me (specifically semis) you might not understand what’s going on.

*ahem* so let me break it down.

Last season, Intel under Pat Gelsinger 👑 made a conscious decision to try to LEAP over TSMC on fab process nodes. To do this they took a huge risk by investing heavy CapEx into R&D specifically by being the first to invest in ASML’s most advanced High NA EUV machines (~$350 Million per machine). Wall Street punished them dearly for it.. but I saw the potential.

Intel bought ALL of ASML’s high NA EUV capacity in 2024 for their 14A node capacity and they are the ONLY one's with High NA EUV in production today. That took a few years of R&D to make that possible and was a huge risk … but is now a structural advantage. TSMC can’t just magically catch up without the same type of time investment and High NA EUV is not simple to integrate (the optical engineers can tell you why). Finally now we are seeing this investment pay dividends. Intel’s own line of Xeon processors use 18A and are ALREADY competitive with TSMC 2 nm process on density & efficiency.

Intel 14A which uses even more High NA looks to be EVEN better leading to a leap in transistor density of 20% and energy efficiency of 35% !!! We have not seen this level of performance leap in one node generation in semis since the mid 90s. For context the performance difference between TSMC 3 nm node to 2 nm node is only ~10% more density and at most ~16% more power efficiency but at a WAY higher cost!

Everyone see's the potential. This is why you have SoftBank investing $2 billion into Intel, its not because they have a good heart its become ARM wants to penetrate the data center space and by investing + negotiation they get to ride the stock to subsidize the fab costs. Nvidia now with its $5 billion investment is doing the same, partnering up for x86 & NVLink fabrication because SERDES/Networking is most of the energy use in data centers. Intel has always had better SERDES & Photonics IP than their competitors and again Nvidia is a big enough customer that by doing a deal they will materially change the value of the company. Just today Nvidia probably made $1.5 BILLION dollars on their Intel stock.

Then we have the U.S. government which acquired a 10% stake in Intel rather than give free grant money. This was a SMART move, and they already made about $3 billion dollars in profit off Intel. If the trend continues with more & more customers moving to Intel fab (Tesla & MediaTek likely next) we are going to have REAL competition for TSMC.

So some predictions:
-Nvidia, CISCO, MediaTek, Broadcom will all be moving heavily to 14A for their networking equipment
-Intel to sell or license X86 IP to Nvidia (& maybe others?) remember Nvidia wanted to buy ARM a few years ago but couldn't this is a way more tolerable deal.
-Intel to take SIGNIFICANT market share from TSMC on high end nodes I would predict will be about 40% of advanced semi capacity.

TSMC gets about 24% of total revenue from 3 nm and 36% from 5 nm accounting for $21.18 billion & $31.78 billion. Which means Intel can likely capture:

(21.18 + 31.78) * 40% =  20 billion dollars
Total Revenue > 75 billion dollars

That would be an increase in revenue for Intel of 40% YoY with more capacity moving to Intel foundries I predict in the following year. Right now Intel is trading at 2x sales because the market isn't pricing in the reduction in CapEx & increased revenue I think this will modestly go to a more industry standard of 4-5x putting Intel market cap at about $365 billion dollars next year & a share price of over $100.

Oh yeah.. one more thing. Where was the signs this was coming? Remember when I said that Intel is ASML's biggest customer and the ONLY people who have High NA EUV in production? Well they reported earnings a few weeks ago and projected a 30% increase in High NA EUV sales & the stock promptly rallied 20%... hmmm wonder who that could be going to? Was only an obvious sign that Intel got an anchor customer for 14A and needed to expand production.


they reported earnings a few weeks ago and projected a 30% increase in High NA EUV sales & the stock promptly rallied 20%... hmmm wonder who that could be going to?


Summary: Bearish Palantir; values it at $30 at best, implying significant downside.

Palantir is a $30 stock at best. Forward deployed put engineer I am.


My price target for Intel next year is $64. I think 2026 will be a breakout year as the new Xeon's come to market clocking up to 5.1 GIGAHURTZ & the release of 18A-P node to improve performance even further.

Summary: Long INTC with $64 PT for 2026 on Xeon launch and 18A-P node; considering selling Sandisk to add more.

I haven’t sold any of my Intel position by the way. We are debating selling Sandisk to buy more Intel.

I think 2026 will be a breakout year as the new Xeon’s come to market clocking up to 5.1 GIGAHURTZ & the release of 18A-P node to improve performance even further.

It’s clear there is a real other option in the market for manufacturing high end silicon.

---

My price target for Intel next year is $64. What I want to see to be a long term shareholder is long term customers and collaboration with other fabless companies.

It’s clear Intel needs to become a mix of TSMC & ARM where they develop IP in house that they can license to other customers.

Very very excited for the future.


Summary: Short NVDA, CRWV, PLTR; long INTC — live position disclosure.

I am SHORT:
-Nvidia
-Coreweave
-Palantir

I am LONG:
-Intel


Nvidia making their own cloud was the logical next step. Charging per hour/use makes more than selling the actual hardware, also gets rid of a lot of inventory risk of producing more hw for them.

Summary: Bullish NVDA: cloud/as-a-service model is a logical margin-accretive step that also reduces inventory risk.

$NVDA Nvidia threatens tech giant profits with move into cloud computing, WSJ says


Summary: Author sold all other positions and doubled down on INTC calls; concentrated long bet.

Remember I told you all yesterday I sold all my positions and doubled down on Intel calls.

$INTC - $11M into these calls now https://t.co/8TrojLpurQ


Nvidia. Their whole stack is optimized for training… they really are cooked and would need to completely reshape their networking teams to change that. Added that H100 and B200 are not best perf/watt or perf/$ for inference it's looking bleak.

Summary: Bearish NVDA: GPU stack optimized for training not inference, InfiniBand overkill for inference workloads, H100/B200 poor perf/watt and perf/$ for inference — 'cooked' in the AI inference arms race.

My take of who is likely to win the AI inference infrastructure arms race on Price per Token (PPT).

No particular order.

1. Google - they invested in TPU early, big performance and scaling culture they haven’t been as fast to compete on models with OpenAI & Anthropic but remember when they said “we have no moat - but neither do our competition” well turns out infrastructure and scale is a moat… + great data for future models

2. Lambda Labs - I think the CEO was early to realize that open source models are competitive with closed source and is making lots of moves to be the best at inference from not just hosting but experiential. Also they already have the hardware and networking talent to go from just renting compute to inference as a service. Broadly speaking a bet on Lamda Labs is a bet on open source models becoming useful and part of the day to day application layer, with Qwen and DeepSeek still committing to open source I am very bullish on them.

3. OpenAI - They have GPT, it’s a brand normies know about and trust, it’s the first API every SaaS tool will call they are ubiquitous. They will need to transition resources but I think they can do it, I’m sure their margin on serving ChatGPT is worst than Google serving Gemini but they have the wind at their back, its their game to lose. If Sam makes the right investments he could easily become the next Google or better and I just am more bullish on him as an operator to canabilize any application products. He will see them with free tokens, help them grow, and then eat them up. They already have good talent (I know they do because they tried to hire me). It just will take  a ruthless ruthless amount of focus and optimization.

The big losers:
-Anthropic, they are at the whims of AWS & Tranium team. I’m sure Amazon cares about Anthropic doing well but not enough to change their data center design to lose money. Really sad as they arguably have the best models, proving my thesis that model supremacy isn’t winning the war.

-Nvidia. Their whole stack is optimized for training, training is super hard to do well and it’s a much harder problem than inference from the compute to the networking. Nobody would use infiniband 800G for inference that is not what it is made for… 25/10G is probably enough for inference that shit is a commodity. If this post was about training I’d be saying the opposite but they really are cooked and would need to completely reshape their networking teams to change that. Added that H100 and B200 are not best perf/watt or perf/$ for inference it’s looking bleak.


Summary: Bullish Google on inference infrastructure edge and Gemini quality, contingent on capturing application-layer revenue.

The new race is infra and Google is probably building one of the best stacks for inference + Gemini is just all around good model.

We will see if they can leverage that to real PnL by taking over application layers. They will have to since regulators are breathing down their neck.

Google just dropped a paper showing that the energy used for a Gemini text prompt has dropped 33x in only 12 months btw https://t.co/gAZRPPtUmB


Extremely bullish for Intel also very innovative. Eschewing HBM for DDR with a wider bus and making this an air cooled card will make this a TCO king.

Summary: Bullish Intel on Crescent Island GPU: DDR+wide-bus+air-cooling = TCO king in inference workloads.

Surprise.

https://t.co/qAVW0YXn0k

After discussions with @Intel leadership at its tech day a couple of weeks back, I knew some other announcement was coming.

Intel’s new "Crescent Island" GPU leans into inference workloads with 160 GB LPDDR5X, an all new Xe3P architecture,


Summary: Long INTC with high conviction; projects $1T+ market cap on 18A node success, eventual TSMC surpass and Nvidia leapfrog.

He was always going to make it. Those who believed in Intel early on will be very wealthy in the future.

Good chance they reach a trillion dollar market cap if they surpass TSMC & another four trillion once they leap frog Nvidia.

I was early on this.

>be me, Intel, 2020s
>stuck on 14nm++ while AMD pulls giga-chad comeback
>Apple dumps me for homemade silicon, humiliation.exe
>GPUs flop harder than a Wii U launch
>TSMC flexing 3nm while I’m still debugging 7nm
>but wait.jpg, 2025
>Lunar Lake doesn’t explode
>18A node actually https://t.co/kqgEPuwQCk


Summary: Actively buying INTC, treating dips as a loading opportunity.

@Golden_Ted_ Everyone is selling for cheap profits I’m loading up now

$INTC Price manipulation is mind blowing. Not a single dip has been bought yet.


Summary: Bearish NVDA; valuation relative to GDP implies extreme bubble conditions.

To put into perspective how big of a fucking bubble we are in Nvidia is 3.8% of world GDP, and 14.7% of US GDP…

😞 https://t.co/P5vkyDwRg1


Summary: Author defiantly claims Intel will not fall, expressing unwavering bullish conviction against BofA's Underperform downgrade.

Everyone wants to cover their shorts. But they don’t know I will never let Intel fall.

BofA Securities Downgrades Intel (INTC) to Underperform, 'Too far, too fast, fundamentals still challenged'

倒车接人
https://t.co/wqu8H7sgC7 via @Street_Insider


Summary: Long INTC; heavy call demand signals max capitulation, price could reach $65 by next week.

Huge demand in Intel calls right now. Looks like max capitulation to me, could easily reach $65 by next week.


Summary: Bullish INTC expecting a new customer announced in earnings and a path to profitability by Q4 2026.

I expect a new customer today in the Intel earnings and a track to profitability by Q4 2026!!!

Let’s gooooooooooo


We are witnessing the rebirth of one of the world's greatest companies right now

Summary: Bullish INTC: 18A yield at 60-70% rivals TSMC 2nm, signals company turnaround underway.

Intel 18A yield is probably between 60-70% which is really good for how advanced of a node this is.

TSMC 2 nm is about 60% with 18A being about equal on density and more efficient. We are witnessing the rebirth of one of the world’s greatest companies right now.

I can say with certainty that 18A yield rates aren't 40%, and PTL HVM is commencing with targets of at least 60-70% in mind.

Considering Lip-Bu's stance towards achieving maximum profits, PTL wouldn't have seen a ramp up at all if yield rates were this low.


Summary: Short NVDA and dump OpenAI options as the AI bubble pops; LLM commodity pressure and scaling limits erode both.

I am an expert on bubbles. So it brings me no joy to say that the AI bubble is popping this time next year.

When you promise infinite scaling and don’t produce it the calculus changes. I don’t think it will be bad for most companies but those who built their entire business model around making the best LLMs are unfortunately going to struggle as models become more of a commodity.

The end user doesn’t care much if Claude is 5% better than GPT5 they care about costs, speed, and utility especially at the scale things will be going. The obvious play now is shorting Nvidia & dumping your OpenAI options in the secondary market.

The new winners will be inference chips with low TCO as everything on the stack turns into commodity network switches and NICs. Other winners will be those who are at the new frontiers of using AI for novel applications from drug development to teaching.

---

Bubbles are good & contrary to popular belief you only get a bubble when there is genuine obvious value to be created.

From rail roads, to fiber, to telecoms, the irrational exuberance leads to immense benefits for us as a society in the future. We accelerated very fast the past few years.

But sadly the trend is no longer your friend.


If AI video takes off which seems like we are very close to that with TikTok and reels. You're going to need a lot of storage and relatively fast storage. Sandisk has a unique value prop there.

Summary: Long Sandisk; AI video boom will drive demand for fast storage, where Sandisk has a unique edge.

If AI video takes off which seems like we are very close to that with TikTok and reels. You’re going to need a lot of storage and relatively fast storage.

Sandisk has a unique value prop there.

---

Full disclosure, I own shares in Sandis


Summary: Author tops quoted $50 INTC target with own $100 call; decisively bullish.

Whatever I say about Intel might sound silly… but I see $INTC hitting $50 in less than a year! https://t.co/p3I1mo7IWI


Summary: Sell AMD: the OpenAI deal is largely unenforceable, AMD lacks capacity, and the 30% gap-up will reverse once euphoria fades.

Get your money out of AMD while you still can. Many of you have piled into the stock after it already gapped up 30%. You are in a world of pain once everyone sobers up.

Empty promises, don’t make money. Here are the cold HARD facts.

1) AMD has to hit $600 for OpenAI to get any shares.

2) OpenAI also needs to build at least 1 Gigawatt of data centers costing 10-30 billion dollars they don’t have. And even after that they only get 1.67% of AMD.

3) How desperate do you have to be to give away 10% of your company away to a customer? Most likely Lisa Su isn’t stupid and knows OpenAI can barely meet that requirement and will struggle to even meet half the deal.

4) AMD doesn’t even have the capacity to meet the whole deal. Also even if they did half the money will go to Broadcom and Nvidia for networking.

Use your head guys. Big announcements don’t mean anything there is nothing requiring either party to be tied to it either. Unlike the Nvidia deal where OpenAI needs to buy those chips any fucking way.


Summary: Long NVDA + INTC, short AMD as a trio trade over coming months based on relative PE valuations.

Long Nvidia, Short AMD, Long Intel is going to be a great trade in the coming months.

#Alert #Nvidia #AMD #Intel #TSMC

AMD PE ratio : 136

NVIDIA : 53

Nvidia is best investment less risk.

AMD very risky.

Intel cheap and best


Prayers worked this is a stand out quarter.

Summary: Bullish verdict on Intel's just-reported quarter; standout result implies durable strength.

🕯 🕯 🕯
      🕯                  🕯
🕯 Intel Earnings 🕯
🕯.          🙏               🕯
🕯      Today.            🕯
       🕯.                 🕯
               🕯 🕯


Summary: Most bullish ever on Apple.

@tomaxwell Never most bullish I ever been on them


the real truth is TSMC is feeling the walls close in on them… Writing has been on the wall for a long time for TSMC anyone with a brain is looking for an exit and their hubris will be their downfall

Summary: Bearish TSMC: author argues management hubris, talent exodus, and overreach signal long-term decline.

TSMC is using mafia tactics to go after its former employees… really disgusting and a befitting end to a company filled with hubris in their management.

You really think a Taiwanese PhD in their 70s is going to steal … what exactly? Some data? Like a process node can be reverse engineered that easily?

Nope, unlike most semitards on this app I know even if you gave intel the exact hyper parameters TSMC n2 uses they couldn’t replicate it easily… the real truth is TSMC is feeling the walls close in on them and that’s why they need to attack their former employees for going to greener pastures.

They did the same thing with Dr. Kim and 3 other engineers not too long ago charging them with crimes akin to espionage. It really begs the question is TSMC really even a company anymore or some state apparatus? What’s next Mossad style assassinations of any engineers  that leave?

Writing has been on the wall for a long time for TSMC anyone with a brain is looking for an exit and their hubris will be their downfall.

RUMOR: Former TSMC Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo, is said to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm, A16 and A14 advanced chip manufacturing processes prior to joining Intel Corp. in October, media report, citing unnamed sources. TSMC is reportedly gathering evidence and Taiwan


The government bailout for your Nvidia calls is here.

Summary: Sarcastically frames the Genesis Mission AI initiative as bullish for NVDA; implied genuine long on Nvidia from government AI compute demand.

🚨The White House just launched the Genesis Mission — a Manhattan Project for AI

The Department of Energy will build a national AI platform on top of U.S. supercomputers and federal science data, train scientific foundation models, and run AI agents + robotic labs to automate https://t.co/7g6ZiKfcTZ


Summary: Strongly bullish INTC; calls $500B market cap a no-brainer and implies maximal conviction buy.

I don't know why I own a home (several), cars (multiple) anything really.... I should be putting everything into intel man like $500B market cap is no brainer

If you’ve been long enough $INTC you’re used to this price movement by now. Stock movement in $20’s (December 2024- September 2025) will match its movement in $30’s (October 2025 - September 2026)

Prediction: GLORIOUS green line incoming October 2026 when 14A IFS deals are https://t.co/Yi4x8JdmyB


God the world is about to see Intel become a leading edge fab, an ASIC design house, and get over 80% of server CPU market again… 1 trillion ez.

Summary: Bullish Intel to $1T market cap on leading-edge fab + ASIC + 80%+ server CPU share recovery.

I guess there’s a reason Google is using EMIB for its TPUs.

My Chinese partner, who I collaborate with, just had an expert call with a Google TPU specialist, and the TPU numbers mentioned there are actually higher than Fubon’s estimates lol.
Does that even make sense?


Clearly Nvidia is realizing inference chips are a threat and need their own, better to buy than build sometimes.

Summary: Views NVDA's Groq acquisition as strategically sound — buying inference capability rather than building it, implying the move strengthens NVDA's position.

Nvidia acquiring Groq for $20B is a big deal.

Groq chips are insanely fast at inference, sometimes 10x GPUs. The trick is to put model weights in SRAM instead of HBM to trade memory capacity for speed.

Its $/token may lose to GPUs, but for long-wait inference on models like https://t.co/KlCVG7W7Ng


Summary: Bullish Intel on Arc GPU market share hitting 1% for the first time, with more gains ahead.

Intel Arc Discrete GPUs Hit 1% Market Share for First Time https://t.co/QypzNezTWK https://t.co/98lMw0rhNy


Intel is the next Nvidia. If you really want to be a multi millionaire join while you can and ask for as much stock as possible. Literally take a minimum wage salary, it's the next trillion dollar company.

Summary: Strongly bullish INTC: calls it the next Nvidia and next trillion-dollar company, urges accumulating as much stock as possible.

It’s so crazy how for a year I’ve been saying all of this !!! I was laughed out the room several times pitching Intel to people.

Intel is the next Nvidia. If you really want to be a multi millionaire join while you can and ask for as much stock as possible. Literally take a minimum wage salary, it’s the next trillion dollar company.

NVIDIA and AMD Explore Intel 14A Node, Apple and Broadcom Come After Intel EMIB Packaging https://t.co/MkqpwB76hB https://t.co/Z1MA8SnJRW


Summary: Remains emphatically long Intel; holds conviction indefinitely.

@bubbleboi Are we still super long on Intel?


Summary: Bullish Intel as the future of domestic semiconductor production if TSMC Arizona can't replace Taiwan capacity.

Dylan Patel

"If Taiwan is cutoff, TSMC Arizona is not replacing any real fraction of the production. Sovereignty is a scam"

Luv u @dylan522p

https://t.co/qB4XONtzOh

1 hour 22 minutes


Summary: Disclosed portfolio: long Intel and Sandisk, short AMD and NVDA, 6x leveraged.

@SebastianFrazer long intel, sandisk, short amd, nvida, 6x leverage

@bubbleboi fund portfolio intersted to see what you were invested in.


Summary: Bullish Nokia on data-center networking, advanced packaging sector broadly, and natural gas on cold-winter + data-center demand.

I’m always perfectly hedged. That’s why I’m leveraged to the tits.

---

Not really stocks but positions I want to take on.

Layer 1/2 networking devices for splines in data centers become important. Nokia might be the trade.

Advanced packaging will do well. Looking for any companies that have huge exposure on advanced packaging and testing.

Natural gas energy providers. Cold winter + data center energy needs means natural gas going to rip. Especially in the Louisiana Texas region.

If you have any ideas comment below.


Advanced packaging will do well. Looking for any companies that have huge exposure on advanced packaging and testing.

Adv packaging: ASE, Amkor, TSMC, SK Hynix, Advantest


Cold winter + data center energy needs means natural gas going to rip


Summary: Long Sandisk (held, not selling) with $150B market cap target EOY on flash as the AI KV-cache solution; also bullish WDC on same thesis.

Bought Sandisk around this time and never sold and I am still not selling anytime soon. My thesis has always been the same…

In modern LLM’s storing & referencing KV Cache is the largest bottleneck. For models like ChatGPT & Gemini it has got so big that you can’t fit it on a single node  NVL72 node you need multiple nodes with networking in between. KV Cache also scales linearly with model size & context so the chase for larger and larger MoE models makes this a behemoth.

So where do you store the KV Cache? To answer this we need to understand the basics of computer engineering. There are a few ways you can tackle it, you could add more HBM memory to hold it, scale to more servers and use networking to share it between them, or keep it on “disk” which is muuuuch slower than HBM or even DDR memory.

So for the longest we just decided to scale out to more servers and this makes sense at first if you remove yourself from the inference mindset. If you are doing training or sharing hardware among researchers this is actually a more ideal setup no big KV Cache to carry around training small experiments and focusing on bandwidth over latency…

But inference is a latency game. Adding network hops and switches in between to read memory adds latency and all the networking hardware Nvidia makes is optimized for bandwidth not latency. So when you are serving models the literal physical location of a specific part of your cache ends up dramatically increasing your tail latency. If you think LLM serving was going to keep growing this was not going to be a sustainable solution and could leave the door open for a competitor to come up with an inference only server solution which I’m sure big labs and big tech were researching.

So you might think just add more HBM? Adding more HBM increases your costs lowers your yield and negligibly improves your memory bandwidth compared to just increasing the pin speed which gives way more bang for buck. Even if you did stack a terabyte of HBM on a GPU the bandwidth won’t scale to make it usable and having more HBM will increase the time you need to refresh it to stop data corruption which will increase latency.

So with these constraint on HBM & Networking killing inference latency what do you do? Contrary to what you would get taught in your EECS class you move up the hierarchy to “disk” and the fastest memory there is flash. Instead of having more and more nodes of GPUs with expensive networking equipment you can just do the brain dead simple thing and pack a bunch of flash on each node. Flash access latency is still lower than networking and if you DMA into your GPU ‘s memory cleverly you can hide that latency by overlapping writing to HBM from disk with consuming it in logic. The simple dumb easy solution wins you just gotta write better hardware drivers lmao.

This is why Sandisk & Western Digital were always going to win but Sandisk was a more pure play flash company so their top line exploded even more. I don’t think the prevalence of flash in AI is fully appreciated yet either. As I said longer context lengths & larger models = larger KV cache =  more flash. Additionally with video models you need even longer context windows + fast access to video’s you generated for users + videos for training.

The dance between HBM, Networking, & Flash will most likely lean towards flash every-time just cause of scale & cost. I fully expect Sandisk to be worth $150B by the end of this year b/c of this.

Compute & storage demand would go parabolic once proper long video generation comes online (15min-1hr)
Lots of good memory (SSD & HDD) stocks can be picked up rn https://t.co/LRO2Vl6wDV


This is why Sandisk & Western Digital were always going to win


Shorting NVDA... It might be the smartest thing I've ever done. Nvidia doesn't trade off of numbers anymore it trades off of vibes and right now I'm getting shaky vibes.

Summary: Author is short NVDA, arguing it trades on vibes not fundamentals and current vibes are turning negative.

It might be the smartest thing I’ve ever done. Nvidia doesn’t trade off of numbers anymore it trades off of vibes and right now I’m getting shaky vibes.

Shorting NVDA, when they have to ship over $100B in hardware per quarter, and Jensen asking C.C. Wei to increase 3nm capacity by 35k WPM isn't smart


Q1 is going to be really good for Intel. Profits will be high.

Summary: Bullish INTC into Q1 on expectations of high profits.


Wall Street wakes up to what I've been hammering on for past year. 2026 they will realize 14a is a leap over TSMC that will take TSMC over a decade to catch up.

Summary: Long INTC; Intel 14A is a generational leap over TSMC that the market will recognize by 2026.

Wall Street wakes up to what I’ve been hammering on for past year. 2026 they will realize 14a is a leap over TSMC that will take TSMC over a decade to catch up.

I have been accumulating $INTC over the last few weeks. $INTC has now become a sizable position for me.

There are multiple fundamental drivers for $INTC, all stemming from different bottlenecks in the semiconductor industry. I will share the full thesis in my newsletter.


Summary: Bullish on Intel; sees current levels as a buying opportunity.


Summary: Strong short Oracle call, endorsing Burry's thesis.

Everything he is saying here is true. Short Oracle massively.


Summary: Mocking Aschenbrenner's portfolio: long INTC + CoreWeave via calls, short NVDA via puts — framed as copying the author's own style.

Long Intel with calls, long core weave with calls, and puts on Nvidia.

Bro thinks he’s me 😭😭😭

Leopold Aschenbrenner really opened a fund, and proceeded to outperform every finance person at all levels https://t.co/z9sBvVsWm6


Summary: Bearish NVDA: Meta TPU shift is a major loss threatening margins, not offset by overall pie growth.

“The whole pie is growing” is not what you say when one of the world’s largest company and hyperscalers in the world as well as Nvidia’s largest customer say yeah we ain’t buying your shit chief.

This is a massive L for Nvidia and means they will need to change things around if they want to retain their margin.

People selling $NVDA because Meta will use TPUs too

People are crazy. The whole pie is growing and Nvidia is on track to do $1T gross rev by 2030 w 55% net margins

CapEx is not slowing at all


Summary: Short oil over the next year on the thesis that fusion energy is probably solved.

My biggest investment thesis for the next year is to short oil as fusion is probably solved.

---

Everyone says they want to be a contrarian but nobody actually wants to sound as retarded as I do. https://t.co/GDxI5zqArt


Summary: Long INTC to $45 by end of next week; expects analyst model updates Monday to drive the move.

This move in Intel is happening on Black Friday it’s half a trading day. Monday next week all the analysts are coming into work and updating their models.

I expect $45 by end of next week.


$1.6 billion is a steal for SambaNova. Arguably the best & most unique architecture out there in AI right now.

Summary: Bullish on Intel's SambaNova acquisition at $1.6B; calls it a steal given SambaNova's best-in-class AI architecture.

Bloomberg: Intel is negotiating to acquire semiconductor firm SambaNova for about $1.6 billion

• Intel is in advanced talks to acquire semiconductor company SambaNova Systems for about $1.6 billion, including debt, according to people familiar with the matter. The deal could be


Summary: Bullish Sandisk long-term; sees $500B potential from current ~$100B.

Sandisk is a $100B company maybe $500B long term.

*SANDISK TO REPLACE INTERPUBLIC IN S&P 500


Summary: Bullish Intel: EMIB packaging wins at Google, AWS, Apple, Meta, Nvidia suggest pipeline for 14A foundry customers, with TPU v8 as first bet.

My sources tell me these are the largest customers confirmed to be using Intel's EMIB packaging technology.

1. Google TPU v8
2. AWS Tranium 4
3. Apple  (unknown project)
4. Meta's MTIA v4
5. Nvidia (unknown project)

TSMC CoWoS capacity is hard to get & EMIB is arguably a better product. Will these companies also be the first 14A customers??? My bet - TPU is on 14A.


Summary: Long INTC with $64 price target seen as achievable; market now pricing in thesis held for over a year.

Intel rallies as the S&P500 crashes. The market is pricing in what the bubble boi said over a year ago. My $64 price target is within reach.


Nvidia will miss earnings. It. All. Comes. Tumbling… DOOOOOOWN

Summary: Bearish NVDA; expects an earnings miss to trigger a major selloff.

The Fed isn’t cutting in December.

Nvidia will miss earnings.

It.

All.

Comes.

Tumbling…..

DOOOOOOWN


Summary: Most bullish ever on Apple; leadership churn seen as a positive catalyst for execution.

I never been more bullish on Apple than I am right now. All the slopineers are leaving.

Timothy Cookie will bring in the new blood and give them barillions of dollars and hold the knife to their neck to execute.

Sometimes to create you must destroy.


Summary: Long Sandisk, Intel, SK Hynix; short Palantir, Nvidia, AMD as current portfolio positioning.

I only own Sandisk, Intel, SK Hynix & am short Palantir, Nvidia, AMD.


Summary: Bearish TSMC 2-3yr: multi-patterning path hurts margins/defects; mildly bullish Intel navigating High NA growing pains as competitive pressure on TSM.

TSMC is going the WRONG direction with multi-patterning and I am surprised the industry believes their BS. This is literally litho 101…

They will need more reticles, have higher defects, and lower throughput. They are only doing this to make Wall Street happy and keep the illusion of high margins. The strategy only works when you have no competition you can pass the extra cost to customers.

They will have lots of competition from Intel who already is going through the growing pains of High NA which has lower FOV & trying to make that a healthy margin business.

This will fair very badly for TSMC investors in the next 2-3 years. Not bullish on the stock long term, they are investing in the wrong stack.

TSM is really going down the multi-patterning route that leads to disaster.
Today is going to be your best chance to pair trade Intel for TSM


They will have lots of competition from Intel who already is going through the growing pains of High NA which has lower FOV & trying to make that a healthy margin business.


Summary: Bullish INTC: expects Q1 profitable foundry quarter with multiple customers and imminent 14A lead partner (possibly Apple) announcement.

Don’t discount packaging & 14a.

I expect Q1 Intel will report another profitable quarter with multiple customers confirmed. I think a lead partner for 14a will also come out soon most likely Apple but it’s just rumors for now.

My thesis for Intel has always been 18AP. If products does super well in 2026 because of server CPU shortage...


Summary: Bullish DRAM demand outlook; expects demand to exceed supply estimates as HBM scarcity drives broader DRAM uptake for AI inference.

I think this is truly understated too. I expect DRAM demand to increase as HBM becomes unobtainable. For inference if you’re smart on how you queue things you can hide the latency dramatically.

Macquarie’s calculation:

- Over the next two years, the DRAM industry can only support 15GW of AI data centers.

- A 1GW-scale AI data center configured with 400,000 GPUs (each with a TDP of 1,700W) requires more than 18,000 DRAM wafers per month, including both HBM and main


I'm raising my price target to $200 a share by end of the year, making Intel a 857 billion dollar company.

Summary: Long INTC with $200 EOY PT (~$857B mkt cap); catalysts include 18A/14A process nodes, packaging, and GPU ramp.

The first upgrade is the cheapest. If you don’t own Intel now you might join the permanent under class forever. I fully expect the entire narrative to change now that the first domino has fallen.

People aren’t even pricing in 18 AP yet they aren’t pricing in 14A. They aren’t pricing in packaging. They aren’t pricing in GPU.

I’m raising my price target to $200 a share by end of the year, making Intel a 857 billion dollar company.


Summary: Short BTC below $40k then slow crash; short ETH on alleged intelligence-project origins.

Bitcoin is fucking cooked. Literally will implode in the coming days probably go down below 40k and then slow car crash from there.

When you learn that Ethereum was a unit 8200 project that’s going kaboom too.


Ethereum was a unit 8200 project that's going kaboom too


Summary: Getting bullish on smaller defense companies; watching for opportunities.

Smaller US defense: Kratos, Red Cat, AeroVironment, etc.

There will be more opportunities. One thing I am getting bullish on are smaller defense companies. Let’s see how it goes.

@bubbleboi dude i didn't listen to you on $SNDK either time and it may be the greatest regret of my life


This thing is ripping past $60. buy as much 20 & 10 delta calls you can get

Summary: Strongly bullish INTC into earnings; expects >7.5% move up, targeting past $60, recommends buying OTM calls.

Market is pricing in less than 7.5% move in Intel post earnings. This is the easiest money I ever seen, buy as much 20 & 10 delta calls you can get.

This thing is ripping past $60.


Summary: Buy silver now as author sees USD reserve currency status ending and runaway inflation ahead.

America is done.

This is third world level's of corruption. Reserver currency status is over. Inflation through the roof. Buy silver now...

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX https://t.co/O4ecNaYaGH


Summary: Doubling short on NVDA in response to Nvidia's statement about Google TPUs.

Nvidia just sent out a statement on the topic of Google TPUs.

“We’re delighted by Google’s success – they’ve made great advances in AI and we continue to supply to Google.

NVIDIA is a generation ahead of the industry.

NVIDIA is the only platform that runs every AI model and


I think it's a nothing burger flat after earnings with lower forward guidance for next year

Summary: Expects NVDA flat post-earnings with lower forward guidance; bearish vs market's +8% upside pricing.

Market pricing in Nvidia +8% upside on earnings or -7% downside.

I think it’s a nothing burger flat after earnings with lower forward guidance for next year.


Summary: Strongly bullish INTC; price still too low, urges buying even on margin.

There will be many more intellionaires. The stock price is still too low! Buy it. Borrow if you have to!

Hey @bubbleboi nothing can stop me I'm all the way up $INTC https://t.co/tqaEryR9TI


It already happened my sources on the ground tell me.

Summary: Author claims META's multi-billion GOOGL TPU deal is already done, bullish for GOOGL.

The $GOOGL big deal win streak not over.

$META multi billion deal for $GOOGL TPUs probably imminent. https://t.co/TP3ZfNAwk6


Summary: Bearish TSMC: Intel 14A will force TSMC back to razor-thin margins; implied bullish on Intel Foundry's competitive threat.

Bro what type of Fortune 500 CEO comments on a competitor to this level of detail? Holy shit the hubris.

TSMC forgets that until very recently they had razor thin margins doing small volume barely staying alive. Unfortunately for them when 14A comes out they might need to go back to their roots.

TSMC CEO on CC.Wei on Intel Foundry - It takes time, they're a formidable competitor & we don't underestimate their progress. But we're not afraid of it. I agree IFS is not a threat to TSMC, at least with status quo but if USG acted on their goals to onshore, it'll be in ~5 yrs. https://t.co/5wadHVBstF


Summary: Bullish GOOGL; author endorses thesis that Google wins AI race with full-stack TPU advantage.

Google was always going to win.

Once a big bureaucracy sorts themselves out and laser focuses they always do a slam dunk.

If these leaked benchmarks for Gemini 3 Pro are correct (could not verify yet) $GOOGL about to drop a model that dwarfs other models and claims the num 1 spot while being both trained and inferenced on TPUs.

$GOOGL about to disrupt the whole AI supply chain with its full stack. https://t.co/nAIFbfy4a8


Summary: Actively short NVDA, currently third-best position.

Short Nvidia is like my third best position right now.


Summary: Endorses Intel hitting $100/share sooner rather than later; bullish.

Me when intel's stock hits $100 per share https://t.co/tr4EuUDYhA


Yeah short them too I couldn't find their ticker lol

Summary: Short Mitsubishi alongside other shorts; couldn't find the ticker.

Mitsubishi Corp (trading house) on TSE; context ambiguous re: which entity

@calmchurro Yeah short them too I couldn’t find their ticker lol


Summary: Bullish INTC on Apple job posting signaling an advanced-packaging/logic foundry partnership coming to fruition.

ALHAMDULILLAH !!! INTEL GETTING CUSTOMERS FOR ADVANCED PACKAGING AND LOGIC 🤲🧎➡

BREAKING: $AAPL Apple has just posted a job opening that requires knowledge of EMIB, a process exclusive to $INTC Intel.

The Apple x Intel foundry partnership might actually be coming to fruition, under our eyesights. 🚀

Job was posted Nov 11, 2025 and is the first EMIB https://t.co/RkujZ668w8


ASML & Intel are bonded to the hip. They will move pari passu.

Summary: Long both ASML and Intel as co-moving on Intel 14A/EMIB wins; will rise together.

This is a very bullish piece on ASML, but if you look closely, it’s also bullish on Intel.

According to the article, Broadcom-designed AWS chips will be packaged using Intel’s EMIB. It even claims that Nvidia’s “Nintendo Switch 3” chip will go into mass production on Intel 14A. https://t.co/2eZvvzCSyU


Summary: Short fast-food (CMG, Yum, DPZ) and long apparel (LULU, VSCO) on GLP-1 oral drug adoption reducing caloric intake and driving clothing demand.

Trade Idea.

With Novo Nordisk release of an oral GLP-1 drug "Wegovy" for $149 a month imminent & Eli Lilly to look to fight back with their own oral GLP-1 drug the real trade is not going long either company... but shorting the fatty foods that are target towards middle class people.

I would be short Chipotle, Yum Brands, & Dominos & go long Lululemon, Victoria's Secret, & similar fashion brands as former fatties will need new clothes to wear & will want to show off some skin.

We could see a huge resurgence in heroine chic and deathly looking women this summer.


go long Lululemon, Victoria's Secret, & similar fashion brands


Short covering by the big banks before it rockets. Hold the line.

Summary: Bullish INTC: interprets -6% drop as short covering before a sharp rally; urges holding.

$INTC-6% after UBS conference comments highlighting ongoing challenges: gross margin volatility from Lunar Lake's external wafer costs, flat-to-down 2026 capex outlook without foundry wins, and foundry-product separation still on the table depending on financial performance. https://t.co/zXUZ0mpTK2


AI hardware / memory / storage / networking / power infrastructure

Summary: Bearish AI training hardware (GPUs/compute); bullish memory, storage, networking, and power infrastructure as AI commodifies and shifts from training to inference/serving.

Broad AI infra basket: semis ETF + storage + networking + power names

I love how when I called out GPT5 being the end of the road and proof that scaling didn’t work anymore I got all kinds of hate on this app.

You can go back and find the tweets they are still up. It was very clear then that scaling farther was not really going to lead to a noticeable improvement. I said, and I was right that from a game theory perspective if you’re not in a scientific race to scale training, you would need to make your influence infrastructure way more efficient.

This is literally what happened with GPT5 & 5.1. They even got rid of the ability to select the quality of the model you want with 5.1 now open AI decides how much compute you deserve. You’re now seeing how Google, who was always very sensitive to the cost of serving models because really that’s their whole business and their edge in the marketplace outcome compete open AI.

It took Ilya coming out and telling you what everyone knew all year. Scaling the way we were doing it before is dead. The demand for all the hardware needed for training is going to decrease. But if you followed me closely you knew I was ringing the bell earlier than even the release of GPT5.

We are in the commodification cycle now you can’t charge 70% margins you can’t bet on having a software moat. It’s about having availability and maintaining quality when you’re a commodity dealer like Glencore & Trafigura. Invest in the memory makers, the disk deliverers, the flash boys, the fiber, the electricity.

Multiplying matrices ain’t special anymore.

“From 2012 to 2020, it was the age of research. From 2020 to 2025, it was the age of scaling.

Is the belief that if you just 100x the scale, everything would be transformed?

I don't think that's true. It's back to the age of research again, just with big computers.”

@ilyasut https://t.co/dzmHFmG2ym


The demand for all the hardware needed for training is going to decrease. Scaling the way we were doing it before is dead.


Summary: Bearish ORCL, CRWV, NBIS, META; endorses Burry thesis that B200 GPU overheating/failure issues will cause 30% gap-downs across AI infrastructure names.

If even a quarter of what Burry is saying is true Oracle, Coreweave, Nebius, Meta, gapping down 30%.

I have no reason to not believe it either. Everyone knows the b200’s overheat and at best last 12 months. With water cooling issues as well a failure is a total loss… it’s an insider secret nobody wants to stand up and talk about in fear of retaliation.


Summary: Still long INTC and adding to position; endorses bull thesis ahead of IFS profitability.

Look… if you missed this 1-year $INTC bull run, you still have time to jump in before IFS starts posting real profit… and before this run looks like child’s play.

Because the truth is: investors who wait until they “have all the data” will always be late. By the time https://t.co/1moPp92Sfo


Summary: Remains bullish on Intel; very little doubt management will meet targets at current valuation.

@pythagonacci There really isn’t a lot that would make me a bear but at the current valuation they will need to meet their targets.

Very little doubt they will.

@bubbleboi i love how the one consistent thing on my tl has been you being an intel bull


Summary: Buying Intel LEAPS; bullish long-dated call options on INTC.


Summary: Ozempic secular trend: long sexy clothing/cosmetics (VSCO, RVLV, Galderma), short fast-casual food (Sweetgreen, Cava, Starbucks).

No.. this is the market is pricing in the effect of Ozempic drugs being widespread, cheap, and administered orally.

This is a huge secular trend. I’m calling it the Girl Dinner trade. Long sexy clothing, cosmetics, & filler. Short liquid desert and fast casual salad bowl slop!

Look at the past 6 months.

---

BUBBLE CAPITAL

LONG Sexy - Victoria Secret, Revolve Group, Galderma

SHORT Sloppy - Sweetgreen, Cava,  Starbucks


Galderma Group AG listed on SIX Swiss Exchange

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic


Summary: Long heavy crude refiners (VLO) and oil services (HAL, SLB) on Venezuela reopening; short Canadian oil producers on new lower-cost competition.

industry='Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing'

How I am exploiting the Venezuela situation to make money:

1. Going long heavy crude refiners. Most likely Venezuela starts exporting its heavy crude with support from U.S. Refiners like Valero Energy who take the thick Venezuelan sludge oil and turn into sweet light crude.

2. Going long oil service companies. To get that oil out of the ground you will need new equipment. Haliburton & SLB are the largest and if American companies start entering Venezuela again they will be the first purchases they make.

3. Shorting Canadian Oil Companies. Canada exports the same heavy crude that Venezuela does. They basically just got a new competitor with more capacity and arguably cheaper costs (stolen goods) than them hitting the market.


Haliburton & SLB are the largest and if American companies start entering Venezuela again they will be the first purchases they make

industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'


Shorting Canadian Oil Companies. Canada exports the same heavy crude that Venezuela does. They basically just got a new competitor with more capacity and arguably cheaper costs

Major Canadian oil producers listed on US exchanges


Summary: Expects NVDA to pull back to $188-$190 as inventory glut gets priced in.

My guess is we see Nvidia stock trade closer to $190-$188 once people factor in the inventory glut.


Summary: Bearish NVDA: OpenAI shifting to Google TPUs signals Nvidia's dominance is being undermined.

They are taking down Nvidia. https://t.co/bqy7dsLeDL

THE GREAT DEFECTION HAS BEGUN

OpenAI is now running ChatGPT on Google TPUs.

Read that again.

The company that made Nvidia a $5 trillion empire just started paying its greatest rival to power inference. This is not a rumor. This is June 2025. This is happening.

Why would https://t.co/yTot0ZuGDM


Summary: Holds Intel stock long.


Summary: Strongly bullish INTC: in-house High NA EUV mask fab signals huge customer demand; author sees $500B+ market cap.

Absolutely AMAZING article ! I highly recommend all my intellionairs to follow this guy…

Intel doing High NA mask production this early and completely in house is a HUGE BULL SIGNAL. Mask production is the most expensive part of taping out a chip, & High NA masks need to be designed completely different than regular EUV masks. The fact that they are confident enough to expand production of these mask fabs signals HUGE customer demand…

I did not take this into account. We can easily see Intel reach a $500B or more market cap if this demand is met. Hooooooooooolly shit.

https://t.co/l9TNSOnhaW

Intellionaire Ep. 14 - deep dive on the planned new EUV Mask Fab in California (BW2/M4)

$INTC


That's insane almost double the inventory in one quarter ?!? I thought nobody could get GPUs? 🚩🚩🚩

Summary: Bearish NVDA: flags doubling inventory + net income/OCF discrepancy as red flags suggesting demand weakness or accounting concerns.

That’s insane almost double the inventory in one quarter ?!?

I thought nobody could get GPUs?
🚩🚩🚩

Giant jumps in $nvda inventory and AR levels 🚩🚩🚩

Huge discrepancy between net income declared of nearly $32B and operating cash flow of $24B

Accounting stays creative https://t.co/3JlYNbXqiS


Summary: Expects Nvidia to miss earnings next week; bearish into the print.

Next week is Nvidia week in earnings: https://t.co/6dlbiclL1t


Summary: Bearish on US Big Tech: AI-driven capex structurally compresses margins, expects 20–40% re-rating to industrial-company valuations.

QQQ is the standard large-cap US tech proxy

Microsoft capex is a canary in the coal mine.

Big tech is changing forever and no one has priced that in… yet. In the previous decades these companies were characterized by high cash flow and high margins since serving and creating software was relatively cheap.

This is no longer the case. People are mistaken to think that AI has decreased the cost of software — it has not. Yes, you can run Claude Code to whip up code faster but the cost of the infrastructure to run Claude & similar AI models is EXPLOSIVELY HIGHER than any other piece of software in history.

Proliferation of artificial intelligence means that the cost of running software is going up. Huge capex is needed, this is already true, but what people aren’t getting is that it’s not going away. These high margin software businesses Are becoming capex heavy industrial businesses that need to upgrade huge fleets of data centers every four to five years. If you don’t invest in the capex you will lose customers. You HAVE to spend it. Forget even running your own model, just making the infra to run any model cheaply & quickly is extremely valuable and an edge in the market.

The financial analysts are all looking at the last 10 years of financial statements trying to use that as a guide to price the future. There isn’t anything there that hints at this level of debt, capex, and REOCCURRING EXPENSES. This is why you see mass layoffs at Amazon, Microsoft, Google because they are fighting that game. It’s partly bloat it’s also to make room for the new biggest cost which is the build out of all these data centers.

That cost is only going UP, not down b/c its capex squared. ASML needs capex to feed TSMC’s capex to feed Nvidia’s capex to feed Meta’s capex. Every step here is someone else’s margin until it falls down to big tech.

So I can’t believe I’m saying this but.. expect a massive repricing of all these companies 20-40% lower than where they are now. Big Tech will resemble the valuations of industrial companies from now on.


Summary: Short NVDA -60% in 2 years on balance sheet stress from Neocloud support; buying CDS on Oracle and Coreweave as bearish plays.

We are entering the bull trap right now.

In two years we will see Nvidia down 60% from the highs as they blow their balance sheet trying to prop up Neoclouds. Nvidia is the Bank of England and I am George Soros.

I am salivating patiently waiting to go all in short. Buying CDS on Oracle & Coreweave in the mean time.


Buying CDS on Oracle & Coreweave in the mean time


Now is probably the best risk reward being long Intel in a looong time. Just these factors alone make it a $64 stock this year. I am investing with the intention of holding this for 3 years+

Summary: Long INTC to $64 this year and 3+ year hold on 18A ramp, Xeon 6 sellout, packaging wins, and coming analyst upgrade wave.

Everyone asking me is it too late to buy Intel… TLDR it’s not !

What we are seeing in the stock price right now is only the effects of Wall Street realizing what I’ve been saying for the past year. This stock price only reflects two upgrades, Key Bank & Citi (who was the most bearish) upgraded from a sell rating to neutral lmao. We have a lot moooooore to go! Now is probably the best risk reward being long Intel in a looong time.

So let me paint a picture for you of what is coming in the next year. First, I expect more upgrades, the real parabolic move in Intel will happen when 18A is in volume production and they report earnings with a healthy margin on it. This is what every analyst wants to see they want to see customers and good margin.

But ontop of this we also have the added wind to their sails with the fact that the advanced packaging side of the business with EMIB already has tons of customers & is completely derisked! Additionally Intel’s Xeon 6 server CPUs demand is through the roof and they are expected to already be sold out for 2026 due to the AI infrastructure build outs. Nvidia took a stake in Intel for this very reason!

Just these factors alone make it a $64 stock this year. But what comes next? Well we have the 18 AP node coming that is targeting higher density than TSMC N2 (18A already has better power performance). I don’t see why they won’t ship that either as it’s a lot easier to do than the original 18A. Also if you consider the fact that Intel has a history of squeezing out performance from less advanced nodes like 14 nm+++ 😂 it seems less risky to me.

Then we have 14A slated for 2027, this is where Intel has the potential to overtake TSMC. Even though this is a later issue we will be watching what management says and listening closely to any rumors that customers are signing up for 14A already. My expectation is that Apple will be their lead customer, as TSMC is hiking prices while Nvidia is starting to overtake them as TSMC’s largest customer. Tim Cookie wants Intel to succeed more than anyone it’s a huge bargaining chip for him.

So yeah that’s the story thus far. I’m not emotionally attached to the stock if I don’t see them executing I will cut them and broadcast that to my followers. But i am investing with the intention of holding this for 3 years+ not just next quarter.


Summary: Long Google as a neo-cloud on TPU ramp eating Nvidia's market share; implied bearish on Nvidia longer-term.

I get a lot of comments like this. People think I’m being hyperbolic for like views or something.

I’m not. Everything I say here I mean. I don’t look at the past to predict the future and just assume the trend will continue. There’s no money there.

I take things to their limits & apply game theory. If you had a piece of hardware that you’ve been developing for over 10 years internally that is perfectly suited for the type of AI that is popular right now and you have a software stack that is robust and stable and hammered on by thousands of engineers over many years… what would you do?

The answer is clear. You rent out any compute you have to anyone who wants it. It’s a hedge with massive upside. If you build out a huge TPU cluster do you really think you can’t find customers who want to rent it? In the worst case scenario, you just use it internally and increase OPEX. I’m sure someone will come with a product that drives revenue from that.

Google is going to become a neo cloud they are going to make a fuck ton of money and they are going to eat market share. Doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen this year doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen next year, but this is the path and you have to be aware of it whether you like it or not.

@bubbleboi "Google is taking half of Nvidia’s market share and market cap"

 what an unserious thing to say


Google is taking half of Nvidia's market share and market cap


CAN YOU HEAR THAT?! CAN YOU HEAR THAT ANON ?!? THATS THE SOUND OF WALK STREET CAPITULATING. WE DID IT. WE FUCKING DID IT.

Summary: Enthusiastically endorses KeyBanc upgrade of INTC to Overweight PT $60 on server CPU sell-out and data center tailwinds.

KeyBanc Upgrades $INTC to Overweight from Sector Weight, PT $60

Analyst comments: "We expect outsized data center demand from hyperscalers this year to be a significant tailwind for Data Center and AI. Our checks indicate INTC is almost sold out for the year in server CPU, and https://t.co/BidfZSg2eD


Summary: Long Siemens; bullish natural gas as the only viable data-center energy source.

@zephyr_z9 I own Siemens, natural gas is the only option for data centers tbh


natural gas is the only option for data centers tbh


I am updating my next year price target of Intel to $64 a share. I AINT SELLING YET !!!

Summary: Long INTC, raising price target to $64 on advanced packaging / Apple / TPU thesis; still holding.

When your thesis plays out over a year after everyone doubted you and made fun of you.

My investors told me I was crazy when I put 60% of our money into Intel.

My girlfriend almost left me when I said I was taking a loan to buy more Intel.

I hid the stress everyday, when they fired Pat I was still buying at $19 a share. When every investment bank downgraded the stock after the government and Nvidia took a stake I was not shaken one bit. When they reported record earnings and Wall Street tried to play it down as an anomaly I saw the signal in the noise.

Advanced packaging Lip Bu told us himself, when I said Apple was going to move to Intel fabs, when I said the TPU would use Intel packaging, I had the “experts” accuse me of lying.

But the truth is right there for everyone to see now. This is only the start. I am updating my next year price target of Intel to $64 a share. A special number for those in the know. Let’s keep going, I AINT SELLING YET !!!


Summary: Bullish INTC as the sole US semiconductor manufacturing option for Musk's supply chain buildout.

Elon is no dummy. He knows Intel is the only option.

Exclusive: Musk Is Actually Building a Full-Stack Semiconductor Supply Chain

Elon Musk, owner of SpaceX and Tesla Inc., is making significant strides to develop a comprehensive semiconductor manufacturing supply chain in the US. Sources indicate that the fan-out panel-level https://t.co/vEJHYPNE3h


Summary: Enthusiastic endorsement of Intel as beneficiary of AVGO's Intel-EMIB solution winning Trainium 3 back-end share.

Just in: I'm not sure if I can share this, but it seems  that $AVGO did break into Trainium 3 back-end by proposing an Intel-EMIB solution and will gain share from Alchip and $MRVL (should be proportionally decreased?).

One more thing: $AVGO is also very "active" in Trainium 4.


Summary: Bullish INTC; claims the Intel story is only getting started.

@MartinShkreli Intel story only getting started Martin would love to come pitch it to you sometime

best chart I've ever made:
$NVDA revenue vs. $INTC revenue since inception, adjusted for inflation https://t.co/Yb582DnpGz


Micron increasing nand capacity is bearish. Might sell my whole position.

Summary: Bearish MU on NAND capacity increase; considering selling entire position.


Looking likely Elon might try to buy out Intel… if a bid does come many more will follow from Nvidia, ARM, Qcomm, etc. could turn into a knife fight

Summary: Bullish INTC on likely Elon/Tesla takeover bid that could spark a bidding war from Nvidia, ARM, Qualcomm.

Looking likely Elon might try to buy out Intel. My little birdies always told me he was interested over a year ago but now it looks increasingly likely.

Makes sense for Tesla to pivot from just doing cars to being a platform that manufacturers electric cars and components for others.

But I imagine if a bid does come many more will follow from Nvidia, ARM, Qcomm, etc. could turn into a knife fight.


Summary: Long INTC; new management executing, High NA EUV investment strategic, sees trillion-dollar valuation in 5 years.

Agreed.

Whenever I pitch Intel to people their immediate reaction is that it’s some boomer company way past its prime. Anyone with any technical domain expertise knows they have some of the best engineers and IP in the history of the world.

New management has came in and is getting people on track and shipping. It’s not easy to do so, they are fighting the laws of physics at the nanoscale level. But they have done it before, and the investment in High NA early was a strategic maneuver that makes sense. There is a reason LBT didn’t piece up the company because with just a bit of elbow grease it is easily a trillion dollar company in 5 years.

Many investors who get easily influenced by fake propaganda news paid by international interests and clueless “analysts” missed out on $INTC at $15, then $23, then $33 … and now they’ll miss it at $43 too. And one day they’ll wake up and realize Intel is suddenly at $100, still


Short Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, & Broadcom. Sorry god.

Summary: Sarcastically shorts AMZN, NVDA, META, AVGO — mocking Vatican Bank's Catholic-ethical equity index which includes them as top holdings.

The Vatican Bank launched two equity indexes tracking stocks that it said are 'consistent with Catholic ethical principles'

Mark zuckerberg's $META is the top holding for the US-based index https://t.co/1Utrc0CJ9W


h100s are more valuable lol. The economics is really flipped on its head now cause like at 100k context KV uncompressed on Llama 70B is 32 GB you need multiple GPUs to inference that it won't fit in an h100. But at 6x compression that's 5.3 GB lol meaning it all fits on one h100

Summary: TurboQuant KV compression makes H100s more valuable (more fits per GPU) but reduces HBM and high-bandwidth networking demand.

I’ve been reading the TurboQuant paper a lot today and here are my thoughts/what I learned.

One thing that stood out to me right away is how similar this is to a lattice based encryption scheme like LWE which I had experience implementing in hardware before for some glowies back in the day but in LWE all you do is take a vector you want to encrypt, multiply it by a random matrix, add some noise and the results look will look like uniform noise so you can’t decrypt it without a key.

TurboQuant is relying on the same mathematical principles by multiplying the KV vector by a random orthogonal matrix. In geometric terms this is just scattering the values of your vectors across random axes on a high dimensional sphere.

The reason this works in both cases though is because of to the way volume distributes in a high dimensional sphere. No matter what the original vector looked like, the projected values will always create the same shaped beta distribution. Because the beta distribution doesn’t have tails (it’s bounded [0,1]) and most of the values will  clustered in the middle and this makes it perfect for quantization.

Now if you have a known distribution now you can just quantize it by binning it into a histogram. There is an optimal binning algorithm for this that they used in the paper that is proven to create optimal bins for a given distribution (not just naively equidistant). They go with ~3 bits in the paper because that gives them 8 bins and because of the characteristics of the Beta distribution that’s enough to group things into meaningful clusters of information.

The most interesting part of this to me (probably because I didn’t pay attention during LinAlg) is that they don’t need to decrypt to compute the attention score. Attention is just a dot product and that is preserved under any orthogonal transformation so you just rotate the query the same way you did keys and your lit you get the same numbers. They added another bit here for quantization error but yeah thats the gist…

---

Some other thoughts.

1. These guys had to know a lot of math. Like they are just applying it but you needed to really have an intuitive grasp of the machinery. I always liked random matrix theory and @TheGregYang was big into that so I thought idk was useful seems like lol it is.

2. You will probably eventually need dedicated encryption and decryption hardware to do this. Doing so is just going to make your token throughput way way way higher. Also it really does stress the importance of smaller data type multiplier like int4 becomes even more important I don’t think anyone was seriously using it for weights.

3. I don’t see KV shrinking. If anything you just unlocked way more context for free. Which means h100s are more valuable lol. The economics is really flipped on its head now cause like at 100k context KV uncompressed on Llama 70B is 32 GB you need multiple GPUs to inference that it won’t fit in an h100. But at 6x compression that’s 5.3 GB lol meaning it all fits on one h100. Nvidia is deff mad at this.

4. I see less HBM…. But really this is really bad for high bandwidth networking. KV cache exploding is why we needed 180+GB of HBM on a gpu but with tensor parallelism and pipeline parallelism you really just need to hold weights and if your KV is fucking 2.5 or 3.5 bits you also don’t need 800G SERDES.

Sending 32GB at 800G takes 320 milliseconds not including overhead of FEC and lane alignment if you compress that to 5.3 GB that takes 53 milliseconds which is insane latency improvement.

5. There’s going to be more to come. I doubt this is the only way. Deepseeks technique of Multihead latent attention needed the model architecture and means training a new model . This is easy and you can do it to at INFERENCE time no model changes needed that’s huge.


Summary: Long oil via calls, short yen for carry as part of portfolio hedging strategy.

@MaxPapazov @mean_field_zane Yeah I own oil calls and am shorting the yen which has great carry. Again it’s called portfolio management. Manage risk and hedge it your port shouldn’t gap down 10% a day due to some well telegraphed crisis.

I probably bleed 2.5-5% a quarter on put buying.

@bubbleboi @mean_field_zane Bubble boi aren’t you concerned about oil being higher for longer and boj on the brink of collapse?


Summary: Doubling down on INTC into earnings with 25% of portfolio in calls.

Everyone asking me about how I’m playing earnings.

Doubling down. 25% of my portfolio is in intel calls. https://t.co/LftReP7gdz


Summary: Bullish INTC; claims it will surpass Nvidia in size soon.

@carl_sterns Doesn’t matter Intel will be bigger than Nvidia soon.

@bubbleboi but what about when they roll out a $INTC cpu in rubin 😰


Summary: Agrees MU offers better gains from here as the only company expanding capacity.

@HgcMatt Have to agree they are the only ones expanding capacity

@bubbleboi Better gains for MU from here I think.


These are all going to collapse next year.

Summary: All optical AI-momentum stocks (LITE, AAOI, COHR, GLW) will collapse next year.

Optical stocks have become the hottest trade in the AI space:

Lumentum, $LITE, is up +1,137% over the last 12 months, the 2nd-best performing stock in the S&P 500.

Over the same period, Applied Optoelectronics, $AAOI, is up +551%, Coherent, $COHR, +282%, Corning, $GLW, +223%, https://t.co/UBZ5xGcwxa


industry='Scientific & Technical Instruments'


Intel will overtake Nvidia in market cap in the next 5 years. A leading edge fab, the best CPU's on the planet, and soon… leading edge AI inference.

Summary: Intel will surpass NVDA market cap within 5 years on fab leadership, best CPUs, and AI inference; implied NVDA underperforms relatively.

Intel will overtake Nvidia in market cap in the next 5 years.

This is obvious I’ve been saying it for months now. A leading edge fab, the best CPU’s on the planet, and soon… leading edge AI inference.

This is certain.


Summary: Calls oil to $150/barrel and S&P 500 down 25% from here.

Oil is going to hit $150 a barrel. The S&P 500 is going to go down 25%, & I will still be here standing.


amd still can't expand capacity to meet demand you will see towards the end of the year

Summary: Bullish AMD by end of year on capacity constraints unable to meet demand.

@raghavrmehta If I was right u would say the opposite lol amd still can’t expand capacity to meet demand you will see towards the end of the year

@bubbleboi That AMD short into earnings made no sense given your other positions


Summary: Bearish on Taiwan/Korea/Japan equities and bullish on oil/gas on Middle East infrastructure destruction cutting Asian energy supply.

Balaji is right.

This is the NBA season cancellation moment during Covid. You can’t get this infrastructure up and running in the next 9 months.. we blew it badly.

The war dragging on for another month will mean all of Asia is without power. We are going to ban exports of oil and gas soon as well to help our own local market. Writing is on the wall for Taiwan & Korea .. Japan might last another 3 months.

I'm going to make some obvious points.

(1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything https://t.co/BNgNbR39aH


Summary: Short AMD into earnings.


I'm massively short TSMC btw. They will ship zero chips next month if this trend continues.

Summary: Massively short TSMC; claims supply chain disruptions (helium shortage) could halt chip shipments within a month.

I’m massively short TSMC btw.

They will ship zero chips next month if this trend continues.

Black swan events come with their own set of disruptions. TSMC is not getting helium right now. Singapore port is having logistics issues with delayed cargo. Crude stuck in Hormuz is causing a storage glut. The world is going through a manufactured supply chain disruption.


Summary: Short NVDA on compounding packaging/yield limits, roadmap delays, and moat erosion; long INTC as EMIB+glass substrate positions it as the packaging-superior alternative hyperscalers will migrate to.

It’s becoming obvious to anyone with a chip design background that Nvidia is running into the physical limits of advanced packaging and quietly losing the technical moat that justified their valuation.

Every new generation on their roadmap demands more design compromises than the market is pricing in. That means delays. And delays leave doors open for competitors who are already closing the gap on TCO.

Exhibit A: Rubin Ultra already got gutted. The original four-die design had to be scaled back to dual-die because CoWoS-L couldn’t handle the thermal and structural stresses. The package was literally warping and compute dies weren’t making full contact with the substrate. TSMC’s advanced packaging hit a wall. That would be fine if Nvidia’s entire roadmap from Blackwell to Feynman didn’t hinge on pushing that same technology harder every twelve months.

Their workaround now is a 2+2 configuration at the board level. But that’s a fundamentally different interconnect topology. You lose the die-to-die bandwidth density of a unified CoWoS interposer and fall back to PCB-level signaling between halves. For inference-latency-sensitive workloads, that’s a real performance degradation Jensen isn’t discussing and it’s exactly why he’s been so hostile to the idea of inference ASICs for years. He knows the cracks are showing. And my real fear is what if this isn’t the end of resorting to PCB packaging? Feynman is claiming 6 or 8 reticle dies on one interposer and they can’t even get 4 working? This would be absolutely catastrophic !!!

Not to mention they even had to respin Rubin. After the first tapeout completed in late June 2025, Nvidia redesigned the chip in response to AMD’s MI450 and had to push TDP from 1800W to 2000W with a new tapeout not expected until late September/October now. That’s directly impacting the 2026 launch schedule and supply. But even more concerning than that is why does Nvidia need to make such big reactive design changes mid-tapeout on a chip this complex? It’s because the original spec wasn’t where it needed to be and their answer was to push more power to do it which isn’t a design win.

On top of that, HBM4 verification delays at SK Hynix and Micron forced Nvidia to cut its 2026 Rubin production target from 2 million units to 1.5 million. This is the same movie as the Blackwell ramp: announce jaw-dropping specs, watch TSMC and memory vendors struggle to deliver, and let the revenue targets slip. The market doesn’t price Nvidia on delivering it prices it on announcements lol. Jensen knows this, which is why GTC has turned into a Hajj for speculators rather than a conference for design partners.

So this is the core issue: the annual cadence of Blackwell (2024) → Rubin (2026) → Feynman (2028) is physically unsustainable but is necessary to justify its valuation. “Ultra” refreshes between each generation increasingly look like patches for unmet design objectives and every generation is stacking a new memory standard, a new packaging technology, and a new process node simultaneously. TSMC is already forced to explore alternatives like CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate) because CoWoS-L can’t scale to where Nvidia needs it. All that introduces 6-12 months of delays and yield ramp risk and stacking all these is begging for even compounding delays.

And this is the crucial point the market is starting to wake up to: when you have billions in data center construction costs on the line and customers to serve, you do not care where your chips come from as long as they meet spec and show up on time. It’s why Google has TPUs and Amazon has Tranium, the market for selling inference accelerators is much smaller than serving tokens… that’s the real business at the end of the day.

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And now to the final nail in the fucking coffin. Remember I said Nvidia is a CoWoS cuck. Well.. what’s the alternative?

INTEL.

Intel is quietly building the most credible packaging alternative in the industry with EMIB delivering higher-bandwidth die-to-die interconnect without a massive silicon interposer resulting in cheaper, better scaling, and none of the warping problems that gutted Rubin Ultra. Intel is also leading on glass substrates, which solve the exact CTE mismatch and dimensional stability issues that make organic substrates the bottleneck for next-gen multi-die packages.

If Intel Foundry executes on 18A and pairs it with EMIB + glass, hyperscalers get a packaging-superior alternative that fucking will mooooooogggg Nvidia. Nvidia’s entire roadmap assumes TSMC solves every problem on schedule, every time, forever because they aren’t that smart.

The recent announcement with Google & Intel & the soon to be announce Apple & Intel deal will paint the picture even more clearly. TSMC could possibly cost Nvidia the crown…


Intel is quietly building the most credible packaging alternative in the industry with EMIB delivering higher-bandwidth die-to-die interconnect without a massive silicon interposer resulting in cheaper, better scaling, and none of the warping problems that gutted Rubin Ultra.