Summary: Buy gold; oil above $100 fuels inflation with no rate cuts; PE firms have further to fall after $265B wipeout.

Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption.

Those were SYMPTOMS.

The disease is the same one I've seen 3 times in 45 years on Wall Street:

Too much money, too much leverage, too little discipline, and a financial product sold as "safe" to people who didn't understand what they owned.

Private credit grew to $3 trillion on a simple lie - that you could earn 9-10% yields with "semi-liquidity" on assets that have no liquid market.

That's not investing. That's volatility laundering. And the Street dressed it up beautifully.

"Private credit." Sounds so exclusive, so sophisticated. Illiquid loan sharking would be more accurate.

And don't get me started on "private equity", another Wall Street rebrand designed to make LEVERAGED BUYOUTS sound like fine wine. They changed the name because the old one scared people. The risk didn't change. Just the marketing.

Wall Street has always been brilliant at one thing: rebranding risk as exclusivity and selling it to people who don't know what they're buying.

Now add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart.

The Strait of Hormuz is shut. The IEA is calling it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The Fed held rates steady yesterday and the market just RIPPED AWAY expectations for even a single cut this year.

Oil is the fuse. But the TNT was packed years ago.

Oil above $100 means inflation stays sticky. No rate cuts. Every overleveraged borrower inside these private credit portfolios gets squeezed harder every single month.

 Interest coverage ratios deteriorate. Defaults tick up. Valuations get marked down.

And when valuations drop, the leverage stacked on top of that leverage (the "back-leverage" that banks provide using those same loans as collateral) starts to unwind.

And JPMorgan already started.
They marked down software loan collateral and restricted lending to private credit funds. When the biggest bank in America pulls back, that's a SIGNAL.

High-yield spreads just surged to 470 basis points. The widest in years. Credit markets are screaming what equity markets haven't fully heard yet.

I've watched this exact pattern before.

- Junk bonds in the '80s
- Dot-com leverage in 2000
- Structured mortgage products in 2007

The product changes every time but the architecture never does:

Wall Street creates something complex, sells it as safe, layers leverage on top, markets the yields to retail investors, and collects enormous fees on the way in.

Then something breaks and the gates go up.

The people who built the machine are fine - they already got paid. The people who bought the brochure are trapped behind locked doors.

$265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done.

And you know what? That's FANTASTIC.

Perhaps we'll finally get some real price discovery. Just say no to mark to model.

Holders of this fine merchandise will get the returns they deserve. The pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies that piled into this garbage should take the hit. No bailouts. NONE.

This nonsense has gone on far too long and moral hazard is the predictable result.

The only way to end this insanity is to let Mr. Market operate.

Allow price discovery. Allow bankruptcy. No more money printing. No more crony capitalism. No more extend and pretend.

Blow it all up. That is the only way.

"But what about the individuals who get hurt!"

Better to take the hit now and reset than continue down this road. Hyper-financialization is destroying our economy and enriching the fortunes of the few. This must stop. NOW.

But I have little confidence it will. We'll get more of the same:

Rule changes. Special accommodations. The inevitable big ease will come.

Count on it.

AND BUY GOLD

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Now add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart


$265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done


Tesla is wildly overvalued. Fair value is maybe $50. I am short from $475. The coming crash will be epic.

Summary: Short TSLA from $475; calls it wildly overvalued with fair value ~$50, biggest bubble in stock market history, narratives-driven.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

86% of Tesla revenues are from autos and related services. Some might irresponsibly suggest that $TSLA is an auto company! Could you imagine?

Call it whatever you want; the market cap is indefensible even if one ascribes generous valuations to their other business.

That is a FACT. Kindly show your valuation framework if you disagree.
Ad hominem attacks are no substitute for fundamental analysis.

Tesla is wildly overvalued. The share price is sustained only by narratives and dreams.

Tesla does not have the necessary Texas state approval for paid unsupervised robotaxi rides post May 28. It will be years before they are able to develop the necessary technology, by which time it is likely that such technology will be commoditized and widely available.

The stock is unchanged over the last four years and has massively underperformed the market.

Investors increasingly ain’t buying the hopium that @elonmusk is selling.

Fair value is maybe $50.

$TSLA is the biggest bubble at scale in stock market history.

The coming crash will be epic.

I am short from $475.

@GordonJohnson19
@BradMunchen
@StanphylCap
@TeslaBoomerMama
@GerberKawasaki
@RealJimChanos

Tesla is an AI stock going forward…not a car company @CNBCClosingBell 🔥🎯🐂


I don't see much downside in oil prices from here (geopolitics providing a floor), and I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle

Summary: Author sees limited downside in oil prices and views energy stocks as attractive on the cycle; dismisses Trump's $50 oil target as unrealistic.

I JUST CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S VENEZUELA OIL PLAN

And there's a huge problem.

Everyone's expecting Venezuela to pump 3M+ barrels per day and crash oil prices.

But here's what nobody's talking about:

The infrastructure is DEAD.

30 years of socialist mismanagement destroyed everything.

PDVSA (Venezuela's state oil company) went from world-class operator to complete disaster.

Refineries are rusting. Pipelines are leaking. Equipment is ancient.

The realistic cost to fix it? $100-180 BILLION over 10-15 years.

Nobody has that kind of money.

Especially not for a country that just stole billions from foreign investors.

The Exxon Problem:

Venezuela owes $60 billion in unpaid arbitration awards.

Exxon, ConocoPhillips, and others got their assets seized in 2007.

They won in international court. Venezuela never paid.

Now Trump's calling oil execs saying "invest in Venezuela."

Their response: "Show us rule of law first."

Translation: We're not putting billions into a country that might nationalize us again.

The Chevron Reality Check:

Chevron's the ONLY major still there.

They're operating under special US license.

Best case scenario with their current setup? Add 200-500k barrels per day.

That brings Venezuela from 900k bpd to maybe 1.1-1.5M bpd.

Still 50% below their historical peak.

And that's the OPTIMISTIC scenario.

The Orinoco Problem:

Venezuela's oil is heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt.

It's thick, sulfurous, expensive to extract.

Needs special refineries to process.

At current oil prices, the margins are horrible.

Why would any company invest billions for 8-12% returns when they can get 15-20% in US shale?

They wouldn't.

And here's the part that kills me:

Trump keeps saying he wants $50 oil.

But $50 oil DESTROYS the investment case for Venezuelan production.

You can't spend $180 billion rebuilding infrastructure if oil prices are suppressed.

The economics don't work.

So either:

1. Oil stays at $50 and nobody invests in Venezuela
2. Oil rises to $80+ and Venezuela becomes viable but prices don't crash anyway

Trump can't have both.

So even IF someone could rebuild the infrastructure...

Venezuela's political situation is still a mess.

Maduro's supposedly leaving. But to who? Maria Corina Machado? Another strongman?

Nobody knows what the government will look like in 12 months.

Major oil companies don't invest billions into that level of uncertainty.

They need 10-year stability guarantees.

Venezuela can't provide that.

The US Shale Comparison:

Meanwhile, Trump's threatening to cut oil prices.

US rig count is already falling.

Shale producers are pulling back on new drilling.

If you artificially suppress oil prices, you REDUCE future supply.

Not just in Venezuela. Everywhere.

Low prices = less investment = tighter supply later.

It's basic economics.

The Realistic Timeline:

Absolute best case with Chevron's existing operations:

- 18-24 months to add 200-500k bpd
- Total Venezuelan production hits 1.1-1.5M bpd
- Still nowhere near the 3M bpd everyone's expecting

That's not a game-changer for global oil markets.

My Take on Energy Stocks:

I don’t see much downside in oil prices from here (geopolitics providing a floor), and I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle.

But Trump's $50 oil talk is exactly that - talk.

The gap between political promises and physical reality has never been wider.

You can't tweet oil fields into existence.

You can't executive order decades of infrastructure neglect away.

And you definitely can't rebuild a collapsed petro-state while simultaneously crashing the price of its only export.

Energy reality > political promises

Every. Single. Time.

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I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle

XLE is the primary US energy equity sector ETF


Summary: Expects BETR to keep falling after already dropping 37% since flagged.

You have some nerve. I owe you nothing, You can do your own research. The info is all there in the public domain.

$BETR is down 37%  since I flagged it and will keep falling IMHO. No need for me to say more. I am very happy with the way things are playing out. And @danielsethlewis is an arrogant blowhard who does not deserve a response. I will just let the stock price do the talking for me,

@gnoble79 @danielsethlewis Make the argument.  I read Daniel’s responses and none of them were arrogant.  You never articulated a well thought out response George.  This is your chance.


Summary: Strongly bullish gold, drawing Weimar hyperinflation parallel to current US policy.

Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy

Scott Bessent, please call your office.

You can’t own enough gold.
@LukeGromen @GordonJohnson19 @DonDurrett @davevermilion @PeterSchiff @QTRResearch @LawrenceLepard @htsfhickey  #GOLD #SILVER $GDX

"With that, the rush to get out of the mark was on. Like a dam bursting, the seas of marks flooded into the markets and drove prices beyond all bounds. The German government strove mightily to outflood the sea." https://t.co/Dslipjse38


Summary: Long energy (XLE, offshore drillers, Tidewater) / short tech (XLK) on rotation thesis: energy underweighted, AI capex unproductive, reflationary impulse driving resources.

Schlumberger OUTPERFORMED Microsoft by 100%

Read that again.

In the last 3 months, a boring oilfield services company doubled the returns of one of the most valuable companies on earth.

Why is no one talking about this?

Energy is 3% of the S&P 500. Tech is 35%.

That's not a weighting...

That's a setup.

I watched Japan go from 66% of the non-US index to an afterthought. I watched tech go from nothing to everything twice.

And I'm telling you right now:

This rotation is just getting started...

If you're running $250 billion at Fidelity, you can't overweight energy 10x.

The math doesn't work. A 3% sector means you maybe go to 5% if you're feeling aggressive.

But tech at 35%? You can buy 40 different names and still be underweight.

So institutional money piles into the same mega-caps. Microsoft. Apple. Nvidia. The same seven stocks that carried the market for years.

Meanwhile energy gets ignored. Too small to matter. Too volatile to own. Too unfashionable to pitch.

That's EXACTLY when you want to be there.

The reflationary impulse is real. Interest rates are stimulative. Resources, metals, energy - everything geared into that impulse is working.

And tech?

The AI spending story is FALLING APART.

$380 billion in capex last year. CFOs can't point to measurable returns. The Duke survey shows "no change" across productivity metrics at most companies deploying AI.

You're paying 30x earnings for companies spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure that doesn't show up in the numbers yet.

Or you can buy energy at single-digit multiples with real cash flows and a structural tailwind.

The offshore drillers are where I see the most upside.

Valaris got taken out at 84 after I pitched it at 54 in December. Tidewater is next.

But if you want to keep it simple: long XLE, short XLK.

One trade. Captures the entire rotation.

This is the year active management finally matters. The dispersion is here. The setup is perfect.

5 years of underperformance trained everyone to just buy the index and forget about it.

That's about to change.

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industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'


The AI spending story is FALLING APART. $380 billion in capex last year. CFOs can't point to measurable returns.


buy energy at single-digit multiples with real cash flows and a structural tailwind


Summary: Favorite holding for next 3-5 years is gold miners; long-term bullish conviction.

@gnoble79 George; What is your very favorite holding for the next 3 to 5 years??


Summary: Short TSLA; camera-only FSD cannot achieve Level 4, robotaxi thesis fails, fair value $50.

https://t.co/HOwevmLr8x

---

The wheels are coming off the robotaxi fraud. The $TSLA technology is unable to achieve the required level 4 FSD with just cameras.
Back to the drawing board.
$50 is fair value.


Summary: Bearish Bitcoin; disagrees that the bulk of downside is done, says the crash is just beginning.

@CStackamoto @saylor Nah, the crash is only getting started.

@gnoble79 @saylor I get your intent to be petty based on  Saylor's own words. But the time for that kind of talk was months ago. The bulk of downside has already occurred. This your first major Bitcoin correction? It's a process.


Summary: Endorses and amplifies HSBC Reduce on TSLA; author asserts $131 PT is still too high, implying further downside.

"HSBC reiterates Reduce rating on Tesla stock amid delivery shortfall"

HSBC has a $131 price target on $TSLA. That's still way too high.

https://t.co/IqG47eMSwd


Summary: Bearish on passive S&P 500 exposure as fast-tracked AI IPOs inflate index with money-losing firms; bullish gold as alternative.

Wall Street is rewriting the rules of the S&P 500.

And that not to protect your retirement.

But to fast-track trillion-dollar money-losing AI companies into your portfolio.

Let me explain what's about to happen.

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public THIS YEAR.

Combined expected market cap: roughly $3 TRILLION.

SpaceX is targeting a June IPO at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation. It merged with xAI in February and plans to raise up to $50 billion - the largest IPO in American history.

OpenAI is targeting Q4 2026. It just raised $110 billion at a $730 billion valuation from Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia. It projects a $14 billion LOSS this year. It doesn't expect to turn a profit until 2029 or 2030. It trades at 65 times revenue.

Anthropic is valued at $380 billion. Also expected to list this year.

Now here's where it gets dangerous for passive investors:

From 2016 to 2025, the ENTIRE US IPO market raised $469 billion total. These 3 companies alone want to raise more than that in a single year.

But it gets WORSE.

S&P Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and FTSE Russell are ALL considering fast-track rules that would shove these companies into major indexes within DAYS of going public - bypassing the standard 12 month seasoning period.

Roughly $24 trillion in passive funds is tied to the S&P 500 alone. Those funds MUST buy whatever gets added.

So a company like OpenAI that's burning $14 billion a year, valued at 65x revenue, with no path to profitability for four years could become a mandatory holding in your 401k before it even reports a single quarterly earnings as a public company.

Nasdaq is proposing a "Fast Entry" rule: inclusion after just 15 trading days. SpaceX reportedly made early index inclusion a CONDITION of choosing Nasdaq over the NYSE.

The inmates are running the asylum.

Index providers aren't rewriting rules because these companies earned their place. They're rewriting rules because SpaceX is too big to ignore and too lucrative to lose to a competing exchange.

If all 10 of the largest venture-backed companies go public and get fast-tracked, their combined weight could reach 4.5% of the S&P 500 - more than the ENTIRE energy sector.

Think about that.

Companies that collectively lose billions per year could outweigh every oil and gas producer in America inside the most important retirement index on Earth.

This is the passive indexation trap I've been warning about.

You don't get to choose. You don't get to vote. The index committee decides, the ETFs execute, and your retirement savings follow orders.

When the index is being engineered to absorb trillion-dollar speculative bets, the smartest move is to stop blindly following it.

Own what you understand. Own what makes money. Own what's priced for reality, not fantasy.

GOT GOLD?

---

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Software bro, just say no to $CRM ENOUGH OF THE BULLSHIT ACCOUNTING GAMES SELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD

Summary: Decisive sell call on CRM citing accounting games, SBC headwinds, and margin/scale concerns.

$CRM Look at the headwinds of stock based compensation, merger & acquisition costs.
Then look at margin projections and scale problems.
@dougkass @SeabreezeLP
@jimcramer @SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeDJ @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/tmEKHX6wty


$OPEN is very overvalued IMHO. Fair value is maybe $2. $6 looks way too high. $82 is only for narratives and carnival barkers. SELL!

Summary: Short OPEN: stock far exceeds fundamentals, fair value ~$2 vs current ~$82; bull case of asset-light software transformation unproven. Explicit SELL.

$OPEN is very overvalued IMHO.

The bulls want to believe that the company will somehow swiftly transform itself from being a lowly valued, asset heavy, low margin perennial loss making house flipper to a highly valued, asset light, high margin profitable software company.

The stock price has moved excessively ahead of any improvement in fundamentals as can be seen from the following valuation metrics:

price/book is very expensive:

---

as well as price/gross profit.
While of course markets are a discounting mechanism, much is already in the price - in fact, too much. Fair value is maybe $2. $6 looks way too high; maybe in a few years if everything goes right $8.20 might be justifiable.

$82 is only for narratives and carnival barkers. SELL!


As I have been warning about the AI trade…the numbers don't work

Summary: Bearish on AI trade (ORCL, MSFT, NVDA); warns the numbers don't work, consistent with prior warnings.

Oh dear. As I have been warning about the AI trade…the numbers don’t work.
Larry Ellison,  please call your office.
$ORCK $MSFT $NVDA https://t.co/onxM6xsZtt


Summary: Bearish TSLA and SpaceX: calls them financial disasters that fail to earn cost of capital, driven by hype not fundamentals; urges investors to flee both.

TRUTH.

Just say no to narrative chasing financial illiteracy.

Just say no to the endless hopium and broken promises of Elon Musk.

Just say no to legal fraud.

@elonmusk is the Ivar Kreuger of our time.

His companies have been a epic financial disaster as they have cumulatively failed to earn their cost of capital. $TSLA stock has done well only due to hype, not profits.

Run, don’t walk from SpaceX.

People need to rise up and call out this insanity.

MAKE FUNDAMENTALS MATTER AGAIN.

MAKE VALUATION COUNT AGAIN.

MAKE THE TRUTH GREAT AGAIN.

JUST SAY NO TO SPACEX.

@gnoble79 Every comment section under a negative post about Elon always smells so... acrid

Maybe Enron could have gotten away with it had they built a cult


Summary: Trim Magnificent 7 / rotate into S&P 493 small/mid-caps: AI productivity payoff won't arrive until 2027-2030, causing multiple compression in Big Tech while cheaper names offer better value.

Magnificent 7 = basket of the seven mega-cap US tech equities

industry='Internet Content & Information'

THE UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH about AI spending:

US tech giants spent $380 billion on AI‑driven infrastructure capex in 2025.

But most CFOs still can't point to measurable returns.

The latest Duke CFO Survey tells the story nobody wants to hear:

When asked about AI's impact over the past 12 months, the vast majority of CFOs reported "no change" across the board.

Labor productivity? No change.
Decision-making speed? No change.
Customer satisfaction? No change.
Time spent on high-value tasks? No change.

These aren't small companies experimenting with ChatGPT either.

78% of large companies invested in AI during 2025.

Real money. Real infrastructure. Real deployments.

And most are getting... nothing measurable.

The spending is something we've never seen:

Microsoft committed $80 billion for fiscal 2025 on AI infrastructure.

Google, Amazon, Meta - all racing to match it.

Together, the big four hyperscalers will be spending over $380 billion throughout 2025 - 2026.

Data centers. GPUs. Power plants. Cooling systems.

Real assets. Real cash. Real bets on AI transformation.

Meanwhile, in the real economy:

Goldman Sachs surveyed their investment bankers about how clients are actually using AI:

- 37% of companies are deploying AI
- 47% using it to boost productivity/revenue
- Only 11% using it to cut headcount

So deployment is happening.

But Goldman's economists found AI has had "negligible" impact on aggregate labor metrics so far.

Their forecast? Measurable GDP impact doesn't start until 2027.

Here's where the AI gains ARE showing up:

Since ChatGPT launched in November 2022:

- Magnificent 7 earnings: Up 145%
- Remaining S&P 493 earnings: Up 4%

The seven companies building AI infrastructure saw earnings explode.

Everyone else got a rounding error.

But that performance is about infrastructure BUILD-OUT, not productivity PAYOFF.

Nvidia makes chips. Microsoft sells cloud compute. Meta runs models.

They're selling picks and shovels in a gold rush.

The companies trying to mine gold? Still digging holes.

The productivity paradox:

US productivity grew 2.3% in 2024. Some quarters hit 2.8%.

That's solid - well above the 1.2% average from the 2010s.

But here's the problem: that improvement started BEFORE the AI spending boom.

Goldman estimates tech contributes 0.3-0.4 percentage points of the productivity acceleration.

Meaningful. But not revolutionary.

And certainly not enough to justify $380 billion in annual capex.

The implementation gap:

AI doesn't just plug into existing workflows.

It requires:

- Complete data infrastructure overhauls
- Retraining entire workforces
- Redesigning core processes
- Managing change across every department

Most companies bought the tools, bolted them on, and wondered why nothing changed.

Here's the big math problem:

$10 billion revenue company spends $100 million on AI.

To justify that at 20% hurdle rate: $20 million in annual benefits needed.

In reality that means:

- Cut 100+ positions, OR
- Add $20M revenue at zero marginal cost, OR
- Slash 2% from operating expenses

Most can't hit those numbers in year one. Many won't hit them in year two.

But the Magnificent 7 are priced for transformation happening now.

Here's what's coming:

Gartner projects total AI infrastructure spending go up to $1.37 trillion in 2026, with hyperscaler capex alone exceeding $600 billion.

By 2027, we're looking at $1.75 trillion in AI infrastructure spending globally.

The spending isn't slowing down.

But if productivity doesn't materialize until 2027-2030 like Goldman projects, we're looking at years of multiple compression in Big Tech.

Smart play for investors:

Trimming Mag 7 exposure and rotating into small and mid-caps where valuations actually make sense.

The S&P 493 trades near decade lows relative to Big Tech, but earnings growth is only 5 points lower.

Companies spending trillions today are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns.

That's not a trade I'm taking.


Summary: Bearish on OPEN despite bullish options structure in parent; explicit sell/avoid instruction.

@GammaEdges @RedDogT3 $OPEN is a short in my opinion. Do not buy.

@RedDogT3 $OPEN from an options structure standpoint call speculators are in control (bullish). The key strike to get over is the 7.00 which is highest speculation and sensitivity which will most likely be an area of stalling. The next 2 expiries contain a signiciant amount of the OI. The https://t.co/NMJrP3XbQt


Summary: Bearish TSLA: valuation at 16x falling revenues is fully priced in; explicit sell recommendation.

@Navi30374517 @SawyerMerritt At 16x falling revenues that is more than adequately reflected in the $TSLA price. SELL.

@gnoble79 @SawyerMerritt Lol Tesla is pretty much the only company making a profit on their EV’s.


Summary: Confirms holding a short position in TSLA.

@gnoble79 So George — With such a drastic valuation difference -  are you short TSLA stock?  Is your hard-earned money on the short side, or are you arm-chair quarterbacking?   It would seem to be a no-brainer if you truly believe.


I think this stock goes down 90% from here. Not because Tesla is worthless... A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists.

Summary: Short TSLA with 90% downside target ($37) on declining deliveries, brand freefall, margin compression, BYD competition, and unjustifiable 365x earnings valuation.

Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year.

And fewer last year than the year before.

That should tell you everything you need to know.

2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history.

And 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets.

France down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%.

BYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month.

The brand is in FREEFALL.

Brand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%.

And the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings.

Let me say that differently:

Tesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns.

The bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about "transportation as a service."

So in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday.

Trust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE.

The car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight.

And instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure.

So you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale.

On 365 times earnings.

Even if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards.

I think this stock goes down 90% from here.

Not because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects.

A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists.

I know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something:

When you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING.

I can see the seams.

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Summary: Decisively short NVDA; claims Wall Street is lying and AI will be an epic disaster.

I AM CALLING IT RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW. WALL STREET IS LYING TO YOU. AI WILL BE AN EPIC DISASTER.
SHORT AI. SHORT $NVDA.


The math always wins. ALWAYS. It just takes longer when the con is this good.

Summary: Short TSLA: calls it the greatest con in capital markets history, FSD overhyped, milestones meaningless, CEO award engineered for wealth transfer; math will eventually win.

Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets.

Not because the cars are bad.

But because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT.

I've never seen a company where the gap between what is promised and what is delivered is this wide, for this long, with this little accountability.

Tesla's Full Self-Driving system is marketed as autonomy. But it is not autonomy. It is a camera-only system running probabilistic inference.

The car is making statistical guesses about what it sees, thousands of times per second, with no redundancy when those guesses are wrong.

Probabilistic inference controlling a two-ton vehicle at highway speed with your family inside.

NHTSA has two open investigations covering 3.2 million Tesla vehicles. One was escalated to a formal Engineering Analysis in March after 9 crashes, including a fatality, where the system FAILED to detect sun glare, fog, and dust. The cameras went blind and the car kept driving.

In Austin, Tesla's robotaxi fleet has reported 15 crashes across roughly 800,000 miles. One crash every 57,000 miles.

The average American driver has a police-reported crash every 500,000 miles. Tesla's robotaxis crash at roughly 4x the human rate, WITH a safety monitor sitting in the car whose only job is to prevent crashes.

Waymo operates over 2,500 fully driverless vehicles across multiple cities with no human backup and maintains a crash rate 85% below human drivers across 127 million autonomous miles. Tesla has ONE unsupervised vehicle in a tiny section of Austin.

But here's what really makes Tesla different from every overvalued company I've ever analyzed:

The facts do not matter to the people who own this stock.

Every missed deadline, every broken promise gets filtered through the same response: attack the messenger.

Call them a short seller. Call them a hater. Anything to avoid looking at the actual numbers.

It's an online ecosystem that has made itself completely immune to facts. And Musk baked that dynamic into the culture from the beginning.

Every time the fundamentals deteriorate, the faithful don't sell. They double down.

When your shareholder base treats every dip as a buying opportunity regardless of the data, the stock becomes untethered from reality entirely.

That's literally a religion with a ticker symbol.

I highly suggest you read Edward Niedermeyer's book Ludicrous on this.

And now it even gets WORSE...

CapeFearAdvisors published a piece this week that should be required reading.

Tesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award contains a change-of-control provision:

In the event of a change of control, ALL operational milestones are disregarded.

No million robotaxis, Optimus robots, or $400 billion EBITDA.
NONE of it.

So if SpaceX acquires Tesla at $8.5 trillion, every tranche of Musk's 423 million share award vests immediately. A single acquisition at that price triggers the full vesting of both plans at once, with no way to claw them back.

The milestones everyone argues about are just a distraction. The mechanism is the change-of-control language buried in the SEC filing.

This is about engineering the largest personal wealth transfer in modern financial history and using the narrative machine to keep the price elevated long enough to execute it.

I've seen every bust of the last four decades.

But this one is different because the cult of personality is stronger than anything I've witnessed. The movement around this stock cannot be touched by facts, and that is what makes it so dangerous.

But the math always wins. ALWAYS.

It just takes longer when the con is this good.

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Summary: If Fed starts buying, gold and silver have no ceiling; dollar would suffer significantly.

@commonsenseplay @TaviCosta The FED may well start buying, agreed.
But in that environment the sky
is the limit for gold and silver!
Also would very negative for the dollar.

@gnoble79 @TaviCosta But there is no way yields continue to rise, that means higher mortgage rates, higher national debt interest payments, corporate debt explodes

Trump won’t let it happen.

FED will step in and start buying


Summary: Opendoor above $100 within 2–3 years.

@gnoble79 @PurposelyJoyful @ericjackson Ya ya 🤣 Good luck tomorrow!
This will be above 100$ within next 2-3 years.


Summary: Long energy complex (XLE, oil services, crude) / short tech (XLK) on structural underinvestment, tight rig supply, Hormuz disruption, and extreme S&P underweight; trade has years to run.

I JUST LOOKED AT WHAT ENERGY STOCKS DID THIS WEEK

And if you're still underweight this sector, you need to read this.

XLE hit a new record high on Monday. Up over 22% year-to-date.

Energy is outperforming tech by double digits in 2026. And the gap keeps widening.

SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time.

I've been banging this drum since December.

That's when I went on camera and pitched Valaris at $54. Transocean announced an all-stock acquisition in February at an implied price around $84. A 55% gain in two months.

Then I said Tidewater was next.

The thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.

But this isn't about individual stock picks. This is about what's happening to the entire energy complex RIGHT NOW:

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.

Over the weekend, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by threatening to set any ship on fire that tried to pass through the strait.

Commercial shipping traffic collapsed by 70% within hours and then dropped to near zero. At least 3 tankers have been hit. Around 150 ships are stranded outside the strait.

20% of the world's oil supply transits that strait every single day.

WTI crude surged 8.4% to $72.74 on Monday. Brent jumped 9% to $79.45. Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on.

And here's what nobody seems to understand:

Energy stocks were ALREADY working before any of this happened.

XLE gained 14% in January alone. Offshore backlogs were expanding. Dayrates were climbing. Oil service companies were rallying on improving fundamentals, NOT geopolitical panic.

The Iran situation poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.

Now look at the absurdity of current market positioning:

The entire energy sector is about 3% of the S&P 500. Nvidia ALONE is over 7%.

All of America's oil and gas companies combined are worth less than one semiconductor firm.

That's not an allocation. That's a market telling you energy doesn't matter.

But energy is the foundation of EVERYTHING.

Every data center running AI needs power. Every ship moving goods needs fuel. Every factory producing anything needs energy.

You can't code your way out of a supply disruption. And one just arrived.

The oil service companies are where the real leverage is.

These companies have pricing power because the supply of rigs, vessels, and equipment is tight and getting tighter.

After a decade of underinvestment following the 2014 collapse, you can't snap your fingers and build a new deepwater rig. It takes years.

Meanwhile the Mag 7 trade at nosebleed multiples while spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that most CFOs say has produced no measurable returns.

The math isn't complicated.

Oil service companies with real cash flows and a structural supply tailwind versus sky-high valuations betting on a productivity revolution that hasn't shown up in the numbers.

I've been saying it for months: long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation.

That trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.

If you're still overweight tech and underweight energy after what happened this week, you're not investing.

You're HOPING.

Energy reality beats narrative.

Every. Single. Time.

---

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SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time


SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged


Then I said Tidewater was next. The thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.


Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on


The $OPEN stock price already excessively reflects any potential improvement that can reasonably be expected in the next 3 years.

Summary: Bearish OPEN: current price already excessively prices in all reasonable improvement over the next 3 years.

@InversorNovato_ @gnoble79 @VolaarRide @Anderson_2155 @nejatian Management Changed late last Sep.  Turn around plan was briefed in early Nov.  Company already beat sales 11 days ago.  Margin is tightened, lets see how much.  In Feb.

I'm investing in the team and the future....


Wall Street is WRONG about Oracle… why this will end HORRIBLY… This doesn't sound right, does it?

Summary: Bearish ORCL: massive debt ($206B liabilities, negative FCF), off-balance-sheet exposure, single unprofitable customer (OpenAI) behind half the backlog, data centers behind schedule, and GPU obsolescence risk.

Wall Street is WRONG about Oracle.

$ORCL is being pitched as the "fourth hyperscaler."

The AI infrastructure play of a lifetime.

35 out of 46 analysts have a buy rating. Consensus price target is $246.

The stock is at $172. Down 47% from its September high.

Now let me explain what the bulls aren't telling you and why this will end HORRIBLY:

Oracle's non-current debt has ballooned to $124.7 billion. Up from $85.3 billion a year ago.

 A 46% increase in 12 months.

Total liabilities sit at $206 billion against shareholders' equity of $39 billion. That's a 5-to-1 leverage ratio on a company being pitched as a "safe" infrastructure play.

But that $124.7 billion isn't even the full picture...

Oracle has been using project financing structures (loans repaid from projected future cashflow) to keep tens of billions more in borrowing off its balance sheet entirely. So when analysts quote Oracle's debt load, they're UNDERSTATING the actual exposure by a meaningful margin.

Interest expense jumped 32% YOY. Free cash flow is negative $24.7 billion on a trailing basis. The company is spending $48 billion a year in capex while generating roughly $17 billion in operating cash flow.

They issued $43 billion in senior notes in 9 months. They are borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous.

And what did they get for all that spending? They fired 30,000 people.

On March 31st, Oracle sent an email at 6 AM to tens of thousands of employees telling them their roles were eliminated. 18% of the global workforce gone in a single morning.

TD Cowen estimates the layoffs save $8 to $10 billion in annual cash flow. Which tells you everything about the math:

Oracle can't fund $50 billion in AI capex AND keep 162,000 people on payroll. So the people went.

Net income was up 95% last quarter. The stock is still down 47% from its high.

Mr. Market is telling you something.

The earnings look great on paper partly because Oracle extended the useful life of its servers to 6 years, reducing depreciation expense by billions.

I've been flagging this accounting game across the hyperscalers for months. It flatters the income statement while the balance sheet quietly deteriorates.

Now let's talk about the $553 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations that every bull cites as the "reason" to own this stock:

Roughly $300 billion of that is a SINGLE contract with OpenAI through the Stargate project. Revenue doesn't start flowing until 2027. And OpenAI itself expects to lose over $167 billion through 2028 even if it hits $100 billion in annual revenue.

So Oracle is borrowing $125+ billion to build data centers for a customer that cannot even fund its own operations.

And the data centers themselves are significantly behind schedule:

The flagship Stargate campus in Abilene has been under construction since mid-2024. 2 years later, only 2 of 8 planned buildings are operational, covering about 200 megawatts of the planned 1.2 gigawatts.

The remaining Stargate sites across Wisconsin, New Mexico, Michigan, and other locations are in the earliest stages of development.

The total estimated cost to build out Oracle's 7 gigawatts of planned Stargate capacity runs around $340 billion.

And lenders are already getting nervous.

The Wall Street Journal reported that additional capacity at Abilene originally earmarked for OpenAI ended up going to Microsoft instead - because the banks financing the build were uncomfortable with their credit exposure to OpenAI as the ultimate customer.

When your LENDERS don't trust your tenant's ability to pay, then there's SERIOUS issue.

And by the time those data centers are fully built, the GPUs inside them will already be approaching obsolescence anyway.

Nvidia releases new architectures annually. Each generation delivers dramatically more compute per watt. The hardware goes obsolete in 3 years but the debt used to buy it gets repaid over a much longer horizon.

The AI infrastructure buildout is a treadmill, not a revolution. Oracle is the purest expression of that thesis.

- $206 billion in reported liabilities.
- Billions more hidden off-balance-sheet.
- Negative $25 billion in free cash flow.
- 30,000 people fired to fund the capex.
- A single unprofitable customer behind over half the backlog.
- Data centers years behind schedule.

And 35 analysts saying buy.

This doesn't sound right, does it?

---

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$IWM is total garbage. 40% of companies are loss making. AVOID.

Summary: Avoid IWM; 40% of constituents are unprofitable makes it uninvestable.


Summary: Decisive avoid/sell instruction on OPEN; endorses view that it's overvalued at $4B+ with little revenue and cash burn.

@gnoble79 @APompliano @rabois @ericjackson @andrewrsorkin @SaraEisen I can't believe there hasn't been a metaphorical uprising against this guy. He blocked me on two accounts so I don't read any of his stuff anymore.

How can anyone think, that OPEN, a company with little revenue and a cash-burning machine, is severely undervalued at over $4B?


Summary: Short TSLA: Q4 deliveries imploding (~406k vs 440k street), second straight year of declining auto sales expected into 2026.

Looks awful. As predicted $TSLA sales are imploding this quarter.

$TSLA released updated consensus statement with Q4 deliveries

~425k vs Street ~440k 📉

That’s a 15k haircut to expectations

The best analyst I know is predicting
406k! That would be a 18% decline YOY.

Tesla is now on track to report its second year of declining auto sales. I expect sales to decline again in 2026.

SELL!!!

@gnoble79 I’ll just leave this right here.


Summary: Avoid AI infrastructure; long energy, commodities, and emerging markets as underinvested alternatives; bearish on Mag7-heavy S&P500 as capital misallocation unwinds.

SpaceX just acquired xAI in a deal valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion.

Elon says it's about building "data centers in space."

But let me translate what's really happening here...

xAI is burning through $1 billion per month.

The company generated $107 million in revenue last quarter while hemorrhaging $1.46 billion in losses. It burned nearly $8 billion in cash through the first nine months of 2025.

That's not a business.

SpaceX meanwhile generated $8 billion in profit on $15-16 billion of revenue last year. It's the ONLY Musk company that actually prints money.

So what do you do when your AI startup is drowning in red ink ahead of your mega-IPO?

You fold the cash-burner into the entity that can still raise absurd amounts of capital.

And we've literally seen this exact thing before:

In 2016, Tesla acquired SolarCity for $2.6 billion.

SolarCity was bleeding cash, drowning in debt, and trading near all-time lows.

Tesla - the only Musk company at the time that could access the capital markets - absorbed it.

Wall Street analysts called it a "bailout dressed as synergy." Tesla's stock dropped 10% on the announcement.

The SpaceX/xAI deal is the same playbook.

Musk's stated rationale - that AI compute will be cheaper in space within 2-3 years - is the kind of thing that sounds visionary until you think about it for 5 seconds...

SpaceX builds rockets. xAI trains large language models.

These are wildly different businesses with zero operational overlap.

Imagine Microsoft acquiring a cement and steel conglomerate and claiming "tilt-up concrete slabs are essential for data centers."

That's the level of logic we're working with here.

The real play is simple: prop up xAI's insane burn rate with SpaceX's funding access ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history.

And xAI isn't alone in this capital-devouring spiral.

The entire AI sector has become a web of companies cross-subsidizing each other's losses.

OpenAI squeezes billions from Microsoft. Nvidia invests billions in xAI while selling them chips.

Everyone's propping everyone else up.

The investment thesis across the industry has devolved into:

"Please keep the Ponzi spinning long enough for someone else to be left holding the bag."

Meanwhile, the end product - AI - delivers marginal productivity gains for trillions in capex, soaring power costs, and balance sheet carnage.

If these services were priced to reflect their true economic cost, most users would find negative value.

But investors stopped reading balance sheets and cash flows long ago.

The AI models probably can't read them either.

What a time to be invested.

So what's the play?

AVOID the AI infrastructure complex.

When everyone's propping everyone else up, you don't want to be holding the bag when the music stops.

Look instead at sectors that have suffered from years of underinvestment: energy and commodities.

While trillions have been funneled into AI infrastructure, capital spending in oil, gas, and metals has been starved.

That's how cycles work - underinvestment leads to supply constraints, which leads to rising returns on capital.

Tech has the opposite problem. Overinvestment is destroying returns.

When you're burning $1 billion a month to generate $107 million in revenue, that's not a business model - it's a wealth transfer from investors to chip manufacturers.

Emerging markets are also attractive here.

They've been ignored while capital chased the Mag 7, and valuations reflect that neglect.

The Mag 7 now represent roughly a third of the S&P 500.

When this unravels - and it will - capital will rotate into the parts of the market where returns on capital are rising, not collapsing.

Energy. Commodities. Emerging markets.

POSITION ACCORDINGLY

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energy and commodities. While trillions have been funneled into AI infrastructure, capital spending in oil, gas, and metals has been starved.

Broad commodities basket; DJP tracks Bloomberg Commodity


American retail still hasn't arrived in size. When they do, the re-rating of these equities is going to catch a lot of people off guard. The miners are where the REAL MONEY is being made.

Summary: Long gold miners: retail hasn't arrived yet, re-rating ahead; discipline on capital allocation makes this cycle different from 2011-2013.

When I wrote this post, I said the earnings surprises coming out of gold miners were going to be massive...

AND THEY WERE

Miners are now realizing $3,500 per ounce in margin. Major producers reported profit expansion above 170%. The gold miners ETF is up another 10% in 2026 after returning 155% last year.

And the part that matters most:

They didn't blow it this time.

No reckless dilution. No chasing marginal projects at the top of the cost curve.

Dividends up. Buybacks up.

Balance sheets the healthiest they've been in a decade.

That's what's different about this cycle. The miners finally LEARNED from 2011-2013.

When I said major gold stocks trading at 10x earnings was too cheap, people shrugged. Now those same companies are generating free cash flow that rivals Big Tech - at a fraction of the multiple.

American retail still hasn't arrived in size.

When they do, the re-rating of these equities is going to catch a lot of people off guard.

The gold price gets the headlines...

But the miners are where the REAL MONEY is being made.

i've said it last year, I've said it 2 weeks ago, and I'm saying it now again.

This is huge.

---

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Summary: Urges avoiding TSLA, citing capital misallocation, regulatory capture, and market fraud risks.

Lack of price discovery combined with regulatory capture and grift is  a disaster for our country.

@elonmusk is a grave threat to our financial markets and economy.

The misallocation of capital is occurring on a scale never seen before.

The collapse will be epic.

The losses will be stupendous.

The feckless @SECGov is totally MIA.

The investments banks are enabling
the legal fraud.

Elon Musk must be stopped.

Just say no to $TSLA.

Just say no to SpaceX.

I urge everyone to rise up against this
insanity before all is lost.

@DougKass @BradMunchen @biancoresearch @LukeGromen @GordonJohnson19

@gnoble79 Is this a new market structure regime created by passive investing, central bank liquidity, venture capital abundance, and winner take most network effects? It feels like markets today are driven by liquidity, narratives, & capital flows rather than traditional valuation anchors.


Summary: Short OPEN; fair value pegged at $1.50 with significant further downside ahead.

@JKFortySeven Fair value is $1.50 . Still big downside in store for $OPEN

@gnoble79 Hey man I have a question if you are willing, ive asked and you answered before but I still just want to understand your full "play" as this plays out.

You're almost 50% in the green... have or will you take profits? Let me get more detailed...

I dont ask to argue or "gotcha"


Summary: Bearish OPEN: stock wildly overpriced and company has no reason to exist.

@RKmaruvada @nejatian Wildly overpriced stock. The company should not exist. Read my feed. $OPEN

@gnoble79 @nejatian I dont get whatbyour beef is with $open. It ia not like other EJ's ventures. Plain to see there are changes be8ng made. And execution to plan (market maker) wld see return of structural profits. Whats the issue? You dont like the biz or people or what?


Summary: TSLA autos and energy segments worth at most $50/share; bearish fundamental valuation.

Analytical malpractice on full display.
This analyst should be fired.
Autos and energy are worth at most $50 per share. $TSLA @MichaelKantro https://t.co/bWiTpKJQAE


Summary: Long gold, silver, energy/physical-asset producers; bearish on financial assets and Big Tech AI capex cycle with no proven returns over the next decade.

For 40 years, Wall Street has been printing financial assets faster than the real economy can produce real things.

But that game is ENDING.

And the people still betting on financial engineering over physical reality are going to get destroyed.

Let me explain what I mean:

The United States had 254 oil refineries in 1982. Today we have 131. No new refinery has been built on American soil since 1976.

California is losing 17% of its remaining refining capacity this year alone as Phillips 66 and Valero shut their doors. The EIA projects total US refining capacity will fall 3% by year end to 17.9 million barrels per day, still below pre-pandemic levels.

We are SHUTTING DOWN the infrastructure that keeps the lights on, the planes flying, and the trucks moving.

Meanwhile, Big Tech is spending over $600 billion this year on AI data centers. They're consuming roughly 90% of their combined operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing hundreds of billions to cover the rest. And most CFOs still cannot point to measurable returns from any of it.

Think about what's happening here...

We are pouring the largest concentration of capital in human history into digital infrastructure that has yet to prove it generates a dollar of real-world productivity. And simultaneously, we are CLOSING the physical infrastructure that actually makes civilization function.

You cannot print a refinery. You cannot print a barrel of diesel. You cannot print hydrogen or sulfuric acid or an offshore drilling rig. You cannot algorithmically generate the things that heat homes, move freight, grow food, and build roads.

But you CAN print another AI chatbot. You can print another $100 billion data center. You can print another financial product that packages illiquidity as "stability" and sells it to your 401(k).

The entire financial system for the last 4 decades has been a story of financialization outrunning the physical world.

More derivatives than underlying assets. More passive money than price discovery. More narratives than balance sheets. More financial engineering than actual engineering.

And now the physical world is pushing back:

Gold is going up because central banks trust a metal more than they trust the institutions managing fiat currencies.

Energy stocks are repricing because the world suddenly realized that shutting down refineries and underinvesting in production for a decade has consequences. Real assets are outperforming financial assets because you cannot print scarcity.

The S&P 500 measured in dollars looks fine. Measured in gold, it has been LOSING value for years.

People are suffering from money illusion. They see nominal gains and think they're getting richer. But they're not - the unit of account is shrinking.

In my 45 years, the single most reliable pattern I've observed is this:

Every era of excess financialization eventually collides with physical reality. EVERY single time.

The junk bond mania of the 1980s collided with actual default rates. The dot-com bubble collided with the fact that eyeballs aren't earnings. The housing crisis collided with the fact that a $40,000 income cannot service a $500,000 mortgage.

This time, the collision is between $600 billion in AI spending with no proven returns and a physical world that's been starved of investment for a generation.

Own what's real:

- Gold
- Silver
- Energy
- The companies that produce the things civilization cannot function without

The last 40 years rewarded those who owned financial assets. The next 10 will reward those who own physical ones.

The regime is changing.

---

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Own what's real: - Gold - Silver - Energy - The companies that produce the things civilization cannot function without

Silver commodity; SLV is standard ETF proxy


Energy stocks are repricing because the world suddenly realized that shutting down refineries and underinvesting in production for a decade has consequences


Summary: Discloses active short position in TSLA from $475.

@Ronen__Stauber @DougKass @biancoresearch @profplum99 @cvpayne @Tesla Publicly short from 475 asshole

@gnoble79 @DougKass @biancoresearch @profplum99 @cvpayne How long have you lost money on your .@Tesla short?

Oh wait. You didn’t short it, did you?

Tesla went public in June 2010 at a $1.13 split-adjusted with a market cap of ~$1.7 billion.

Current Share Price: ~$400
 Equity Value: $1.25 Trillion
 Enterprise Value : $1.22 Trillion


Summary: Hormuz closure is structural, not temporary: long energy/Brent, short global airlines and semis on fertilizer/helium supply destruction through 2027.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis just claimed its first VICTIM but the real damage hasn't even started yet.

Two days ago Spirit Airlines (the 8th largest airline in America) permanently shut down.

Everyone's blaming legacy debt and bad management. Fine.

But the KILLING BLOW was jet fuel doubling from $74 to $150 a barrel in 10 weeks because the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and there is no plan to reopen it.

Spirit is the first domino, and it will not be the last:

The Federation of Indian Airlines (representing Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet) just warned the government that their entire industry is "on the verge of closing down."

Ryanair's CEO publicly named Wizz Air and Air Baltic as the next to go bankrupt by autumn.

Air France-KLM disclosed $2.4 BILLION in additional fuel costs this year. The IEA says Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left.

And here's where it gets really bad...

Airlines are the EASY part of this story. The hard part is food:

One-third of global fertilizer trade flows through Hormuz.

Nitrogen prices are up over 40% since February.

The American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year. A Michigan farmer told PBS his nitrogen cost went from $350 a ton in January to $600. An Iowa farmer said he's skipping nutrients entirely.

This has a deadline and the deadline is NOW.

The Corn Belt planting window is mid-April through early May.

Nitrogen has to reach the crop during early growth or it does nothing. Apply it 3 weeks late and corn yields drop 10 to 25%.

You can hear what the farmer in the clip below (which is already a MONTH old) said.

We're in it.

Even if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport takes WEEKS that farmers do not have.

And nobody has a Plan B.

G7 countries stockpile oil - but nobody stockpiled fertilizer. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia.

There is no workaround.

And it doesn't stop at food.

Qatar produces a third of the world's helium - a gas that is IRREPLACEABLE in semiconductor manufacturing. Chipmakers use it to cool silicon wafers during fabrication

There is no substitute.

Iranian strikes damaged Qatar's production facilities at Ras Laffan, and even the helium that IS being produced can't get out because it ships through Hormuz.

Spot prices have doubled. South Korea gets 55% of its helium from the Gulf. Taiwan gets 69%.

Those are the two countries that make virtually ALL of the world's advanced chips.

SEMI, the semiconductor industry association, said even if the Strait opened today it would take 4 to 6 months to normalize supply. So every AI bull pricing in infinite chip scaling should be asking one very simple question:

Where is the helium coming from?

And this isn't getting resolved because Iran has ZERO incentive to give anything up.

Hormuz is the only card they have and they know the political clock in Washington is working entirely in their favor:

Trump's approval just hit 34% - lowest of his second term. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 points. A majority of voters view the Iran operation as a failure.

Midterms are only 6 months out.

Iran sees all of this. They know time pressure falls on Washington, not Tehran. Their demands - frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, continued control of Hormuz, enrichment rights preserved - haven't budged since the Islamabad talks collapsed.

The Pentagon told Congress mine clearing alone could take 6 months. And that can't even START until the war ends.

Meanwhile Brent sits above $110 and both sides are blockading each other:

Iran blockades the Gulf. The US blockades Iran.

The global economy is caught between two walls closing in.

Markets are pricing this like a temporary disruption. But it is NOT temporary.

The fertilizer damage is already done for this growing season, food price increases are baked in through 2027, the airline shakeout is just beginning, the semiconductor supply chain is fraying, and the diplomatic stalemate has no obvious exit because neither side can afford to blink.

I've been saying the margin of safety was too thin and complacency would be punished.

Energy is the trade.

Spirit Airlines just died two days ago and proved it.

---

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$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital. The stock has appreciated on the basis of hopium, not profits and cash flow.

Summary: Short TSLA: doesn't earn cost of capital, stock priced on hopium rather than fundamentals.

$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital.
Do  you understand that?

The stock has appreciated on the basis of hopium, not profits and cash flow.
Do you understand that?

If you do not understand those truths then you are financially illiterate and need to take a few finance classes.
Do you understand that?

@gnoble79 @elonmusk Tesla generates billions in annual net profits, Elon Musk’s decisions have demonstrably created substantial enterprise value. There's literal evidence of it. You are purely engagement farming because you don't have actually have any of substance to say.


Summary: Bearish TSLA: does not earn its cost of capital; Musk delivers hopium not profits.

Most importantly, $TSLA does not earn its cost of capital. @elonmusk produces hopium and fantasy, not profits.

@gnoble79 @elonmusk Nope, that is it. Cool Stuff, great stories, horrible politics, corruption enabler


You can't own enough gold stocks in view of what's coming. $SSRM $GDX

Summary: Strongly bullish gold miners; buy as much as possible given the macro backdrop ahead.

.@TaviCosta IS DA MAN.

You can’t own enough gold stocks in view of what’s coming.

$SSRM $GDX

Gold miners are now doing more share buybacks than at any other point in history.

We have never seen anything remotely close to the scale of what is happening today.

This is a direct consequence of the extraordinary profitability the sector is generating at current metal https://t.co/a24pRN8VeL


Summary: Bearish BX: BCRED redemption caps, NAV markdowns, and investor exodus signal an escalating crisis that is just getting started.

FROM THE ORACLE AT 82 DEVONSHIRE:

BLACKSTONE $BX

1) People want their money and can't get it. Not exactly a way to make friends of your investors.

2) Who is going to commit to the next fund?  Step right up.

3)  This fund is the "Big Daddy at $79 billion. Where has that all the flow of the past few years being invested.  Let me guess:
    a) Commercial, residential and multi-family real estate.  b) AI.  c) Hotels/ Resorts?

4) See the highlight at the end. The NAV is getting marked down. Not only do the investors have no liquidity they are losing principal.

This is not the end. Nor is it the beginning of the end. This smacks of the beginning of the beginning.

Just my view.

Blackstone’s BCRED Caps Redemptions After Investors Seek 10% (2)
2026-06-04 16:26:04 GMT

By Olivia Fishlow
(Bloomberg) -- Blackstone Inc. limited redemptions from its
flagship private credit fund for the first time after investors
sought to pull 10% of the shares, the latest firm to cap
withdrawals amid a continued investor exodus.
The $79 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund told
shareholders that it would allow redemptions of only 5%,
according to a filing Thursday. That’s in contrast to the
previous quarter, when BCRED, the biggest fund of its kind, went
to unusual lengths to allow investors to pull all of the 7.9% of
shares requested. Senior executives were tapped to help finance
the withdrawals with their own cash at the time.
But investors asked to redeem even more this time around,
and Blackstone’s move to cap them brings it in line with the
decision most of its peers made last quarter to limit
withdrawals.
A spokesperson for the asset manager Thursday said the
ability to restrict redemptions is “a fundamental feature, with
investors exchanging some liquidity at times for long-term
outperformance.”
Across the $1.8 trillion private credit market, redemption
requests are expected to increase this quarter as investors
redouble efforts to claw back money after being restricted.
Meanwhile, fears over the credit cycle turning haven’t gone
away, with market leaders warning of a potential ramp-up in
defaults as artificial intelligence continues to disrupt
industries and debt extended during the era of ultra-low rates
comes due.

Cliffwater LLC also told investors this week it capped
redemptions from its flagship private credit vehicle at 5% after
they requested 17% to be returned. In the prior quarter, the
Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund had given investors back about
half of the 14% they had sought.
On Thursday, BCRED said in a letter to shareholders that
repurchases began to decelerate during the back end of its
tender offer period.
“But elevated requests suggest sentiment toward private
credit remain weak,” Michael Kaye, an analyst at Bloomberg
Intelligence, wrote in a note Thursday.
BCRED has delivered 9.3% in annualized total returns since
inception, outperforming leveraged loans, the fund told
investors. Its portfolio overall is marked at 96.1 cents on the
dollar as of April 30, with the worst 5% of the portfolio marked
at 68.3 cents on the dollar.

Blackstone is restricting withdrawals from its flagship Blackstone Private Credit (BCRED) fund following a spike in investor redemption requests, as fears over liquidity pressures rattled private markets.

The asset management giant capped investor withdrawals from the $79 https://t.co/EVgUpQuesR


Summary: AI/tech consensus is a magazine-cover top; rotate out of crowded AI/large-cap tech into gold, silver, energy, and real assets for the next decade.

This is one of the most reliable sell signals in history.

Just look at TIME's latest issue.

I've been doing this since 1981, and when I see a cover like that, I don't get excited.

Because history has a brutal sense of humor about moments exactly like this one:

In 1979, BusinessWeek ran the most infamous cover in the history of financial journalism: "The Death of Equities."

The argument was that inflation had broken the stock market for good and that stocks were finished as a serious place to put your money, perhaps permanently.
The country agreed and everybody gave up.

But what came next was the single GREATEST bull market in American history.

Stocks returned roughly 18% a year for the next two decades. Off the 1982 low, with dividends reinvested, the S&P went on to gain nearly 7,000%. The cover that buried equities turned out to be the starting gun.

Now look at the second cover.

In 2019. Bloomberg Businessweek puts a dead, deflated dinosaur on the front and asks "Is Inflation Dead?" The consensus was unanimous - inflation was extinct, a relic, never coming back.

3 years later we printed the WORST inflation in four decades, with prices peaking at 9.1% in June of 2022. That was the exact opposite of what the cover declared, and it happened all over again.

This is the oldest pattern there is.

By the time a story is so obvious, so universally accepted, so completely understood that the editors of a mainstream magazine slap it on the cover, every single person who was ever going to believe it already does.

So the trade is crowded, the buyers are exhausted, and there is nobody left to come in behind you and push the price higher.

The cover doesn't predict the future the editors think they're describing - it marks the exact moment a belief became unanimous. And unanimous belief is the textbook definition of a top.

But here's what makes the AI cover even MORE dangerous than the two that came before it:

"Death of Equities" and "Is Inflation Dead" were business magazines, read by people already in the markets. TIME is a general-interest newsweekly read by over 100 million people who don't trade stocks for a living.

When the AI build-out has saturated the public mind so thoroughly that it becomes the cover of TIME, the message is that there's almost nobody left who hasn't already heard the story and bought in.

And the fundamentals are screaming the same thing the cover is whispering:

The largest tech companies are set to spend north of $600 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, up from roughly $388 billion just last year. Tech investment is now running near 4.4% of GDP, approaching the peak of the dot-com bubble.

These founders are literally saying that they'd rather go bankrupt than lose this race. Hundreds of billions of dollars and mountains of debt are all resting on a single untested premise - that the profits eventually show up to justify the spending. But so far they haven't.

Now let me be honest with you, because that's the only way I know how to do this.

I'm not telling you AI is worthless or that the whole thing collapses tomorrow. The 1979 cover was about three years early, and the real bottom didn't arrive until 1982. The 2019 cover took two years to be proven right.

Covers mark the mood, not the exact day, so I'm not calling the top to the week.

What I am telling you is that the EASY money has already been made, the consensus is now total, and the risk and the reward have flipped upside down. When everyone you know already owns the story, the story stops being an opportunity and becomes a liability.

Mr. Market hands out a scorecard every single day, and that scorecard doesn't care what TIME magazine believes. It only cares about valuation.

And right now the things nobody would ever put on a cover - gold, silver, energy, real assets, the unloved corners of this market - are exactly where the next decade of returns is hiding.


gold, silver, energy, real assets, the unloved corners of this market - are exactly where the next decade of returns is hiding


Summary: Still short FRPT; expects another leg down after 34% drop, citing expensive valuation.

Two months ago at our Best Stock Ideas Summit, my good friend Tom Chanos pitched FRPT as a short at $80.

Today FRPT trades at $53.

A 34% drop in 8 weeks.

Morgan Stanley just cut their target from $90 to $77. Jefferies cut from $75 to $70. Stifel from $84 to $78.

The sell-side is finally catching up to a thesis our subscribers got TWO MONTHS AGO.

This is what happens when you put 15 elite investors in a room and let them share what they actually own and short. Real alpha and real ideas.

The March conference attendees paid $99.

The Chanos FRPT call alone has paid for itself many times over.

And here's the thing: FRPT is still expensive. I expect another leg down from here.

This is exactly why I'm hosting the Best Income Ideas Online Summit on May 20.

Same format. Same caliber of speakers. 14 confirmed experts so far including Michael Howell, Luke Gromen, David Hay, John Roque, Jay Pelosky, plus the elite from Seeking Alpha covering dividend aristocrats, energy infrastructure, REITs, BDCs, and closed-end funds throwing off 7-10% yields.

The kind of income strategies that compound while you sleep.

FRPT was just one of the many insane calls from March.

And now we're doing it again.

Grab your ticket for The Best Income Ideas Online Summit for May 20th:

https://t.co/Ah4ySJGvg3

FRESH PET IS A REAL DOG OF A STOCK

My good friend Tom Chanos said at last week’s conference:

SHORT FRESH PET STOCK

And the market finally started to figure it out.

FRPT dropped 10% yesterday on reports that Costco is developing its own fresh dog food under the Kirkland https://t.co/uifUBd5C1w


Summary: Author explicitly confirms live short position in TSLA.

@Duckinator641 I am short $TSLA
What a lame redouble from you

@gnoble79 Tell me you are short $TSLA without telling me you are short.


$OPEN remains an investment short. I warned you that $OPEN was only worth $1.50. That is still the case.

Summary: Reiterates short on Opendoor with $1.50 fair value target; calls it an investment short with documented prior short from $7.50.

$OPEN bag holders (or “army” as you like to be called), SELL is not a four letter word.

How is that “aggressive software” strategy working out for you?

I warned you repeatedly last fall to no avail. You are getting the returns you deserve.

My short from $7.50 last fall is well documented.  I warned you that $OPEN was only worth $1.50. That is still the case.

@ericjackson belongs in jail.
@mikealfred bagged you.
@APompliano bagged you.
@rabois lied to you.

And @nejatian , you were so fixated on burning the shorts! LOL. Your big payday will NEVER happen. Care to now answer my questions or accept my prior invitation to be interviewed? Nah, instead you will continue to hide from serious questions and instead continue to prey on financially illiterate investors with your  fallacious narrative.

$OPEN remains an investment short.


Summary: Bearish OPEN; believes it remains wildly overvalued even after prior short call.

@pueokeffer I wish you well but I believe $OPEN remains wildly overvalued.

@gnoble79 I have been buying $OPEN for 11 years and am neutral to cost.  One of the crazy ones but I think this is gonna work.  Congrats on your short - good call short term.  LONG 2M+ shares long term.


STAY SHORT. (I am publicly short from 7.5 last fall) $OPEN looks awful technically. The stock shows poor relative strength and is below moving averages. Run, don't walk from $OPEN.

Summary: Publicly short OPEN from $7.5; bearish on poor relative strength, below moving averages, urges others to run.

$OPEN looks awful technically.

This cat dude does not know how to read charts.

The stock shows poor relative strength and is below moving averages.

Run, don’t walk from $OPEN.
@rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @mikealfred @nejatian , what do you have to say to the army?

STAY SHORT. (I am publicly short from 7.5 last fall)

$OPEN monthly set-up is still extremely bullish. https://t.co/PpTm5B9jbo


Summary: Remains short OPEN, calling it wildly overvalued.

@RosannaInvests I remain short from $7.50
$OPEN remains wildly overvalued!
Rosanna please DM me.

Watching the talent migration into $OPEN is more bullish than any chart pattern. 👀

Most equity analysts read 10-Ks.

Operators read the team page.

Here’s what 26+ years of building, running, and acquiring companies taught me about valuing turnarounds:

Top-tier talent doesn’t


The returns on invested capital have been chronically below what any serious investor would demand. That's not wealth creation. So the product here isn't the car. The product is the STOCK PRICE... gravity always wins. And when it does, the people who forced your pension fund into a money-losing rocket company at 120x revenue will have a lot of explaining to do.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: chronically subpar ROIC, valuation unjustified by fundamentals; gravity will eventually prevail.

What's happening right now in our capital markets is going to DESTROY the retirement savings of millions of Americans.

Anyone of good conscience needs to rise up and say enough. This must be stopped.

I don't say that lightly. I've been doing this for 45 years, and what's happening right now to the integrity of our capital markets is unlike anything I have ever seen.

This is not about Elon Musk or Donald Trump. This is not about whether you like rockets or hate rockets.

This is about the systematic CORRUPTION of the financial system that every American depends on for their retirement.

In the entirety of its existence, Tesla has generated approximately $36 billion in cumulative profit. That includes over $20 billion in government emission credits and tax subsidies. The company is valued at $1.7 trillion and its CEO is the richest man on the planet.

I'm not talking about the stock price. I know the stock has made people money.

That's the popularity contest.

I'm talking about whether this company creates enough economic value to JUSTIFY the capital invested in it. And it doesn't.

The returns on invested capital have been chronically below what any serious investor would demand. That's not wealth creation.

So the product here isn't the car. The product is the STOCK PRICE.

Elon Musk is selling hopium and an entire generation of investors is buying it without even knowing what a PE ratio is.

I posted two pieces recently on Tesla and SpaceX. Each got over 1.5 million impressions. Thousands of hate replies but NOT ONE response with an actual argument. Not one.

It was all "Libtard" and "Elon derangement syndrome." You would not get past a first-round interview at Fidelity thinking this way.

But Tesla is just the opening act...

SpaceX just filed for a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. $15 billion in revenue but no profit in sight.

The private valuation was walked up from $200 billion to $400 billion to $800 billion to $1.75 trillion in two years. And Reuters has confirmed that SpaceX made early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 a necessary condition for listing on the exchange. Nasdaq obliged by adopting a "Fast Entry" rule in March that lets mega-cap IPOs join the index after just 15 trading days, completely exempt from the normal seasoning and liquidity requirements every other company had to meet.

And this matters because over $600 billion in passive funds track the Nasdaq-100. Unlike the S&P 500, which still requires months of seasoning and stricter float thresholds, the Nasdaq-100 is now a 15-day on-ramp for trillion-dollar IPOs.

Every ETF and mutual fund benchmarked to that index will be FORCED to buy SpaceX within weeks of it going public regardless of whether the valuation makes any sense.

Your 401(k) is literally the exit liquidity. You don't even get a choice.

The structure of the market makes you a participant whether you want to be or not.

That's what makes this different from every other bubble in history...

You can't opt out.

And the agencies that were supposed to protect you from exactly this? They're doing NOTHING.

Peter Lynch would always say the product is not the stock and the stock is not the product.

Show me one Hall of Fame investor who ever made his fortune chasing hype.

Lynch, Druckenmiller, Soros, Buffett, Griffin, Cohen. Not one of them managed money this way. It's only the cult on X who thinks momentum and greater fool is an investment strategy.

As Buffett said, in the short run the market is a popularity contest. In the long run it's a weighing machine.

This popularity contest has gone on longer than any I've witnessed in my career. But gravity always wins. And when it does, the people who forced your pension fund into a money-losing rocket company at 120x revenue will have a lot of explaining to do.

This must stop. And it WILL stop.

The only question is how much damage gets done first.

Are you listening?

---

https://t.co/PVgYG11eOY


Summary: Long crude oil; expects $10-15 upside from current ~$74 WTI as China restocks, SPR refills, and shorts unwind from oversold/record-short levels.

WTI crude oil; USO is standard ETF proxy

The most powerful force in the oil market is now a single country that doesn't produce a drop.

OPEC IS DEAD

And here's why you should change how you think about energy for the next decade:

China controls the oil price not by pumping it, but by REFUSING TO BUY IT.

For two years, while the West wasn't paying attention, China built a war chest of crude.

They bought cheap, sanctioned barrels at $60 while everyone else looked the other way. They stacked a reserve now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5 BILLION barrels.

Then the world got its biggest supply shock in modern history and instead of panic-buying like everyone else, China did the opposite.

They stopped importing and started eating their own stockpile.

Chinese crude imports collapsed from 11.6 million barrels a day to under 8 million - the lowest level since 2017. That single decision accounted for roughly 74% of the entire drop in global oil demand, according to JPMorgan.

Sit with that number for a second.

The world lost 14% of its crude supply. In 1973, OPEC cut off just 7% and the price exploded 134%.

This shock was twice as large.

But oil went the other way. WTI sits at $74 today.

Because the world's largest buyer simply walked out of the store and lived off its pantry.

THAT is the new OPEC.

For 50 years we obsessed over the Saudis. We watched OPEC meetings like Fed meetings, parsing every production quota. Those days are ending and the most powerful swing force in oil is no longer a cartel that controls supply.

It's one country that controls DEMAND.

And demand is the harder lever. You can cheat on a production quota but you can't force a billion-barrel buyer to show up if it doesn't want to.

Here's what this means for your money right now:

China has capped the upside. As long as they're sitting on that hoard, they sell into every rally toward $100. No spike gets to run. The right tail is gone - stop dreaming about $150 oil.

But they've also built the floor. Those reserves are draining fast.

JPMorgan expects China back as a major buyer by August to start refilling. The US has to refill its own SPR, now at its lowest since 1990. Everyone has to restock at once.

You don't get $100 oil - China sells it to you. You don't get $50 oil - China and everyone else has to come back and buy it.

You get a range. And right now we're sitting at the bottom of it.

Crude is parked on its 200-day moving average. Retail traders are positioned near record short in Brent. Sentiment is in the gutter, RSI under 30.

When the entire crowd leans the same way off the same wrong assumption, I want the other side of that trade.

If I had to bet the next $10 or $15 move in crude, I'm betting higher.

Because the most important player in the oil market already told you exactly what it's going to do.

The Saudis didn't break OPEC. China did - by building a reserve nobody could see and refusing to spend it when it mattered most.

---

Watch the full interview here - actionable advice, zero fluff:

https://t.co/2omNj3LDe6


Summary: Publicly short from 475, ongoing position.

@killer0fkillers I am publicly short from  475.
What an idiotic reply from you.
How about if I said show your long or stfu.


Summary: Publicly short TSLA from $475.

@RealRockwyn @elonmusk Is am publicly short from $475.
You are a financially illiterate clown.

@gnoble79 @elonmusk Then short it or stfu, you illiterate idiot
Elons knowledge, planning and risk and work ethics is comparable to none.
If he'd be the CEO of my company the company would be x100 valued overnight.
No other CEO did in human history what Elon did
You are literally a loser


Summary: TSLA is wildly overvalued across all valuation metrics; bearish.

@dukesfan94 Read my prior posts.
$TSLA is wildly overvalued regardless of the metric!

@gnoble79 Hey George, as someone who has followed this space, I would be curious to hear why you are intent on using P/E here instead of EV/Revenue or a proper DCF.

EV/Revenue shows what you’re actually paying for Tesla’s sales and growth trajectory instead of getting hung up on volatile


Summary: Bearish TSLA: stock fueled by hopium not profits, doesn't earn cost of capital, Musk a poor operator.

TOTAL NONSENSE from @elonmusk

One hour of his time is worth zero
since he produces virtually no profits.

This is what he financial illiterati don’t understand.

$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital.

The stock price is fueled by hopium, not profits.

Musk is a disaster when it comes to running a business.

FACTS

Elon Musk reveals the brutal math behind why a single hour of his time is worth $100 million

"Tesla this year will do over $100 billion in revenue, so that's $2 billion a week. If I make slightly better decisions I can affect the outcome by a billion dollars. The marginal value https://t.co/dxj3b1iS3S


Summary: Bearish TSLA: stock doesn't earn its cost of capital and price is based on hopium rather than fundamentals.

$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital.
Do  you understand that?

The stock has appreciated on the basis of hopium, not profits and cash flow.
Do you understand that?

If you do not understand those truths then you are financially illiterate and need to t add me a few finance classes.
Do you understand that?

@gnoble79 @elonmusk Tesla generates billions in annual net profits, Elon Musk’s decisions have demonstrably created substantial enterprise value. There's literal evidence of it. You are purely engagement farming because you don't have actually have any of substance to say.


The value of a $TSLA share is maybe $54. Whereas the price of a $TSLA share is $424. Mind the gap. $TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history. The coming bust will be epic.

Summary: Strongly bearish TSLA: intrinsic value ~$54 vs $424 price, 80% earnings estimate decline, declining deliveries, no near-term profit from future businesses; calls it the biggest bubble in market history.

VALUE vs PRICE.

The value of a $TSLA share is maybe $54.

Whereas the price of a $TSLA share is $424.

Mind the gap.

$TSLA earnings estimates have declined by 80%.

2026 will be the third consecutive year of declining auto deliveries for $TSLA

Musk already admitted that cybercabs ain’t happening anytime soon.

The other future businesses will not generate profits for years.

And for all those who insist that $TSLA is not an auto company, please note that 87% of revenues come from auto and auto related.

Only a financial illiterate who wants to play greater fool theory would own $TSLA. @SawyerMerritt @TeslaBoomerMama @ICannot_Enough

@elonmusk is unable to earn his cost of capital.

Hopium is the product.

$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history.

The coming bust will be epic.

@BradMunchen  @GordonJohnson19

Wall Street veteran George Noble @gnoble79 strips away the “Elon hype” and values $TSLA based on its actual business fundamentals.

His conclusion? Tesla looks closer to a $54 stock while trading around $374.

When he posted the math online, he says not one credible valuation https://t.co/RQ8Z3ZwTF8


Summary: Initiating/entering a long position in CoreWeave.

We're pulling the trigger on CoreWeave

https://t.co/ieNubn1Ovk


NVIDIA IS BUYING ITS OWN CHIPS AND CALLING IT REVENUE... It's the Girl Scout whose dad bought all the cookies... Same greed. With the same ending.

Summary: Bearish NVDA and Apollo on alleged Enron-style revenue inflation via GPU-backed securities routed through Apollo's insurance arm to retirees; compares to 2008 MBS collapse.

NVIDIA IS BUYING ITS OWN CHIPS AND CALLING IT REVENUE

And your retirement account is secretly holding the bag.

This scheme is literally straight out of the Enron playbook...

In January 2026, a special purpose vehicle called Valor Compute Infrastructure was created with one purpose:

Buy Nvidia's chips so Nvidia could book the sale as revenue.

Valor raised $5.4 billion and purchased over 100,000 of Nvidia's GB200 GPUs.

But $1.9 billion of that money came FROM Nvidia itself.

Nvidia invested $1.9 billion into the shell company, then sold that same shell company $5.4 billion worth of its own chips and booked every dollar as revenue.

It's the Girl Scout whose dad bought all the cookies and then she wins the sales contest because Dad was the customer. Except this Girl Scout is a trillion-dollar company and the cookie sale is $5.4 billion.

But it gets MUCH worse:

The remaining $3.5 billion in financing came from Apollo Global Management. Apollo structured the debt, packaged it into securities, and then sold those securities to Athene.

And guess who Athene is? Apollo's OWN insurance subsidiary. The one that sells fixed annuities to American retirees as safe, conservative retirement products.

Follow the chain:

Nvidia funds a shell company with $1.9 billion. The shell company buys $5.4 billion in Nvidia chips. Apollo finances the remaining $3.5 billion. Apollo sells the debt to its own insurance arm. That insurance arm packages it into annuity products and sells them to retirees who think they're buying something safe.

The retirees have no idea that their retirement savings are now backed by 100,000 computer chips sitting in some data center that will be worth pennies on the dollar in three years.

Now look at what's happening inside Athene:

$74.2 billion in US reserves but $217 billion in assets have been shifted to a Bermuda-based captive insurer, outside normal US regulatory oversight.

$103 billion of that portfolio (roughly 35%) is classified as Level 3 assets. That means there is no observable market price.

These assets are valued by internal models, not by actual markets.

And sitting on top of all those unpriced assets? 16.6x leverage.

If you're getting flashbacks to 2008, you should be.

Back then it was mortgages bundled into securities that nobody understood, sold to investors who had no idea what they were holding, rated as safe by agencies that never looked under the hood.

Today it's GPU-backed securities. Computer chips bundled into structured credit instruments, routed through an offshore insurance subsidiary, and sold to you as a retirement product.

The collateral is 100,000 GPUs leased to a single customer through an xAI subsidiary. If xAI stops making lease payments for any reason - financial distress, a pivot in strategy, anything - the entire structure unravels.

And Nvidia releases new architectures every year, so each generation delivers dramatically more compute per watt. A 5 year lease on technology that's obsolete in 2 years creates a mismatch that should terrify every annuity holder in America.

Every single step in this chain is technically legal. The SPV is legal, the lease is legal, Nvidia's equity stake is legal, the securitization is legal, and the Bermuda transfer is legal.

But legality and legitimacy are not the same thing.

I've seen every trick Wall Street has ever pulled in my 45 years of doing this.

And what I'm looking at right now is a pipeline that takes AI infrastructure risk, launders it through 8 layers of financial engineering, and deposits it in the retirement accounts of Americans who never agreed to fund Elon Musk's data centers.

In 2008 it was mortgage-backed securities.

In 2026 it's GPU-backed securities.

Different asset. Same greed. With the same ending.

---

Watch the full interview below:

https://t.co/EVZytvAs3o