Summary: Bearish both TSLA and META: earnings/fundamentals cannot support current valuations; exec pay tied to fantasy market-cap targets, not real business metrics.

Meta just filed SEC documents tying executive pay to a $9 trillion valuation by 2031.

$9 TRILLION.

The company is worth $1.5 trillion today. That means they need a 500% increase in 5 years.

And they're not the only ones playing this game.

Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk in November tied to an $8.5 trillion valuation target.

Let me be clear about what's happening here:

These companies aren't building businesses anymore. They're building stock prices.

Look at the actual numbers.

Tesla posted its first annual revenue decline in history in 2025. Revenue fell 3%. Net income collapsed 47% year over year to $3.8 billion. Automotive revenue dropped 10%.

The stock trades at 327 times trailing earnings.

That's not a valuation.
More like a hallucination.

Musk's compensation requires 20 million vehicles a year, 1 million robotaxis, and 1 million humanoid robots. Tesla delivered roughly 1.8 million cars last year.

Meanwhile Meta has incinerated nearly $80 billion in cumulative losses on Reality Labs since late 2020. The metaverse division's revenue doesn't even cover 16% of its operating costs. In 2025 alone, Reality Labs lost $19.2 billion.

And stock-based compensation at Meta consumed 96% of the company's free cash flow last year. $42 billion. GONE.

Not to shareholders or R&D with measurable returns, but to insiders betting on their own stock price.

So here's what both companies are REALLY doing:

Step 1: Make outrageous promises about AI, robotaxis, metaverse, humanoid robots.

Step 2: Tie executive compensation to market cap targets, not earnings, not revenue, not cash flow.

Step 3: Spend billions on unproven bets that may never generate returns.

Step 4: Use the promise of future transformation to justify present valuations that have zero relationship to current fundamentals.

This is the financialization of hype.

In 45 years on Wall Street, I've watched this playbook run over and over. The technology changes. The pitch changes. But the ending doesn't.

Stock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will.

And when the gap between the story and the numbers gets this wide, you already know how it ends.

---

I just launched the NEW Founding Member plan for The Noble Update.

Here's what's inside:

- Full access to all premium Substack content (institutional-grade research, stock picks, and deep analysis multiple times per month)
- FREE access to at least 6 online stock idea conferences per year and every bonus event we add on top (I'm planning up to 2-3 extra events depending on schedule)

The conferences alone are worth more than the membership.

Each one features numerous presenters - hedge fund managers, buy-side analysts, independent research guys - all pitching their best ideas with full conviction. These kind of rooms used to be reserved for institutional investors paying thousands.

Between conferences, the Substack delivers the same caliber of thinking - real analysis, real names, and the same rigor I applied running billion-dollar portfolios for 45 years. Multiple times per month.

This is the all-inclusive package. Everything we do. One price. No surprises.

Join us today:

https://t.co/84R6JwvxlM


Meta has incinerated nearly $80 billion in cumulative losses on Reality Labs since late 2020. The metaverse division's revenue doesn't even cover 16% of its operating costs.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

industry='Internet Content & Information'


Summary: Short Bitcoin, stated as a decisive correction to an implied bullish stance.


SELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD. I am short.

Summary: Short HOOD; author endorses bearish chart and confirms active short position.

HOOD, no comment, just a chart. https://t.co/u5xSIRYHGY


Summary: Avoid semis/MU (overpriced cyclical, memory demand at risk from algorithmic efficiency); long gold and energy as the rotation play.

Micron hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $471 eight days ago.

It's down over 20% since.

A few weeks ago I literally told you to STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks. That the "it's different this time" crowd was dead wrong. That Micron's price-to-book was the most expensive in the stock's history, dressed up in a low PE because earnings were wildly above trend.

The oldest trap in cyclical investing.

And what happened this week? Google dropped TurboQuant - a compression algorithm that cuts AI memory requirements by 6x. One research paper from Alphabet and Micron lost $90 per share in a week.

THIS is exactly what I warned about.

When any industry generates obscene profits, innovation floods in to compete those profits away. That's how capitalism works. And semiconductors are not exempt from the laws of economics no matter how many times CNBC tells you AI demand is "permanent."

Micron just posted a phenomenal quarter. Revenue nearly tripled. Margins at 75%. Earnings crushed estimates.

And the stock FELL every single day after reporting.

Because the market is a forward-looking machine. And forward-looking machines eventually do the math on what happens when $650 billion in AI capex meets algorithmic efficiency that slashes memory needs overnight.

The cycle always turns. Always.

Meanwhile, the rotation I've been calling continues. Gold above $4,600. Energy ripping.

The playbook hasn't changed: avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.

I don't want you to believe I'm doing this to brag.

I just want every single one of you to MAKE MONEY.

---

I just launched the NEW Founding Member plan for The Noble Update at $950/year.

Here's what's inside:

- Full access to all premium Substack content (institutional-grade research, stock picks, and deep analysis multiple times per month)
- FREE access to at least 6 online stock idea conferences per year and every bonus event we add on top (I'm planning up to 2-3 extra events depending on schedule)

Locked in at this price. Protected from any future increases.

The conferences alone are worth more than the membership.

Each one features numerous presenters - hedge fund managers, buy-side analysts, independent research guys - all pitching their best ideas with full conviction. These kind of rooms used to be reserved for institutional investors paying thousands.

Between conferences, the Substack delivers the same caliber of thinking - real analysis, real names, and the same rigor I applied running billion-dollar portfolios for 45 years. Multiple times per month.

This is the all-inclusive package. Everything we do. One price. No surprises.

Join us today:

https://t.co/84R6JwvxlM


Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy


I literally told you to STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks


Summary: Bearish TSLA: expects third straight year of delivery declines in 2026 (~10%) plus loss of ~$2.5B EV credits could push company to a loss.

The post below from  @Gfilche wins the award for analytical malpractice of the day. What an extraordinarily bad take.

Extremely bearish is more like it!

418k deliveries 4q 2025 represents a decline of 15% from 4q 2024. The business is seasonal and therefore correct analysis calls for a YOY comparison. The 4q number is truly AWFUL.

I expect deliveries to fall for a third consecutive year in 2026 - I could easily envision a decline of 10%.

Combine that with the absence of EV credits (about $2.5b in 2025) and it is possible that $TSLA will lose money this year.

Thank you @TroyTeslike for your graph. @BradMunchen @FredLambert

extremely bullish print on Q4 deliveries from @Tesla ⚡

418K cars

far higher than Q1 or Q2 of this year. will make $TSLA comfortably profitable

additionally, energy deployed set another record, will continue to drive meaningful earnings growth 🦾 https://t.co/nQHRzRGzmb


Summary: Maintaining short position in Opendoor.

@almondmilk @GMN_watch @Opendoor Staying short Opendoor. $OPEN

@GMN_watch @gnoble79 Bye bye @gnoble79 , don't let the @Opendoor hit you on the ass on your way out!


Summary: Betting $25k that MSTR will NOT make a new all-time high within the next 24 months; explicit bearish stance.

I accept the wager as proposed by @HodlMagoo .  He is willing to bet that $MSTR makes a new all time high in the next 24 months. I will take the under on that. $25k on the line.

Who will help broker this arrangement?
@TgMacro or @dailydirtnap, will you preside over this transaction? I suggest that @HodlMagoo and I each put $1k in an escrow account as a sign of good faith.

This will be glorious. Let’s post this far and wide.

Let’s get the media to cover this.

Anyone have any other suggestions?

Also, anyone else want to join @HodlMagoo in betting against me?

@dotkrueger @MichaelMOTTCM @LukeGromen @cvpayne @samvadas @unusual_whales @LynAldenContact @biancoresearch @TaviCosta @davevermilion

@gnoble79 @saylor @gnoble79 want to make a $25,000 bet that $MSTR will make a new all time high within the next 24 months?


Summary: If Fed buys TLT in current inflationary/deficit environment, gold soars and dollar declines.

GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy

@commonsenseplay @TaviCosta The present environment is much different - inflation is not dead and the deficits are much higher, so there are significant constraints.
Such a move by them would be real banana republic type behavior. I would expect gold to soar and the dollar to decline.

@gnoble79 @TaviCosta If they start buying TLT rips higher, they we done it multiple times before

https://t.co/KyZV4S06nw


Summary: If Fed monetizes long end: gold surges and USD falls.

@kesor6 @Gupalo1974 @commonsenseplay @TaviCosta Gold would explode and the dollar would fall.

@Gupalo1974 @commonsenseplay @gnoble79 @TaviCosta There is not that much "long end" to buy. If the Fed really does financialize the long end, obviously the prices will rise and the yield will become lower. But it doesn't solve the problem of the Fed being the major holder of US debt, long or short.


Summary: Strongly bullish energy stocks, endorsing two analysts' view that the sector is set to take off.

John Roque of 22V and John Karle of Nautilus Research both expect energy stocks to take off. I heartily agree.
To read more, sign up for exclusive content on my substack:

https://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/kQy08vY5mc


Summary: Author endorses bearish AI-boom thesis: capital misallocation 17x dot-com, loss-making players face correction; NVIDIA cited as lone exception.

This is the definitive interview on AI, in my humble opinion. You owe it to your portfolio to listen in.

Julien Garran presents a critical view of the AI investment boom, framing it as a capital misallocation crisis 17x larger than the dot-com bubble.

The argument is that generative AI has fundamental technical limitations—relying on correlation, not causation—which constrain its commercial usefulness.

With most players (except NVIDIA) deeply loss-making and reliant on unsustainable vendor financing, a market correction is anticipated. The macroeconomic risk is significant, potentially shaving 3-6% off GDP if the cycle reverses.

https://t.co/mnUGjyhudc


The stocks are priced like it already delivered and exceeded expectations. It hasn't.

Summary: Bearish on AI-sector stocks over the next year; Super Bowl ad dominance signals peak euphoria, not peak fundamentals, with underperformance ahead.

Broad AI sector; AIQ is primary AI-themed ETF proxy

WELCOME TO THE AI BOWL

And if you've seen this movie before, you already know how it ends.

Tonight, while 130 million Americans watch the Seahawks and Patriots, they'll also witness something that should make every serious investor deeply uncomfortable:

The single largest concentration of AI advertising in television history.

16 tech companies bought Super Bowl ads this year.

OpenAI, Google, Amazon, Meta, Anthropic, Genspark, Base44, Rippling, Ramp - and more.

Tech ad spending is DOUBLE what it was during the 2022 "Crypto Bowl," the last time NBC broadcast the game.

At $8-10 million per 30 second spot, plus production costs pushing all-in budgets north of $20 million per ad, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent tonight by companies trying to convince you their AI product will change your life.

I've been in markets for 45 years.

When an entire sector floods the most expensive advertising real estate on the planet, it's not a signal to buy. It's a signal to think VERY carefully about what comes next.

My friend @DougKass has been beating this drum for years with his "Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator".

The more intensely a single sector dominates Super Bowl advertising, the more likely those stocks underperform in the year ahead.

Doug's been right far more often than he's been wrong on this one.

Because we've seen this exact playbook twice before...

2000: The Dot-Com Bowl. 14 internet startups bought Super Bowl ads at $2.2M per spot. Pets .com spent $1.2M on its famous sock puppet commercial.

Within 10 months it was dead - stock went from $11 to zero.

8 of 11 startups that advertised were bankrupt or sold in fire sales within a year.

2022: The Crypto Bowl. FTX, Coinbase, Crypto .com, and eToro collectively spent $54 million on Super Bowl ads.

Larry David told 100M viewers "Don't miss out on crypto."

9 months later, FTX was bankrupt.

Bankman-Fried is now in prison.

Coinbase shares fell 70% within a year.

By the next Super Bowl, crypto had "zero representation."

Now 2026: The AI Bowl.

And the parallels are impossible to ignore.

The Duke CFO Survey tells us the vast majority of CFOs report "no change" in productivity, decision-making, or customer satisfaction from AI investments over the past 12 months.

US tech giants spent $380 BILLION on AI infrastructure in 2025. Goldman Sachs says measurable GDP impact doesn't start until 2027.

The companies SELLING AI tools are getting rich. The companies BUYING them can't measure the returns.

And tonight, the sellers are spending record sums to convince even more buyers to pile in.

The data on Super Bowl advertisers as investments is damning.

Bridgewise found that after 6 months, companies running Super Bowl ads trailed the S&P 500 by an average of 9.2%.

Only 25% outperformed the index at 6 months.

Now look at who's advertising tonight:

OpenAI and Anthropic are pre-IPO companies burning billions in cash, racing to prove they can monetize before capital markets demand accountability.

Genspark and Base44 are startups most Americans have never heard of, spending $8-10M per spot to introduce themselves.

The real rivalry tonight isn't Seattle vs. New England.

It's Anthropic vs. OpenAI, fighting for "mindshare and legitimacy as both prepare for massive IPOs."

That's a NARRATIVE CAMPAIGN to justify valuations before public markets scrutinize the books.

Every bubble has a moment where the hype sector dominates the Super Bowl.

Dot-coms in 2000. Crypto in 2022. AI in 2026.

Peak advertising spend correlates with peak euphoria, not peak fundamentals.

Dot-com companies told you to click.
Crypto companies told you not to miss out.
AI companies are telling you the future is here.

The future may well arrive. But the stocks are priced like it already delivered and exceeded expectations.

It hasn't.

Enjoy the game tonight.

But the best contrarian indicator in markets isn't some fancy algorithm.

It's a $10 million Super Bowl ad.

---

Sign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there.

Focus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy.
Making money will be the objective.

Join below:

https://t.co/W5q1RR77rB


Summary: Endorses TSLA as undervalued; buying under $2T market cap is a steal given energy, autonomy, AI, and robotics growth ahead.

“Buying the stock under $2 trillion is a steal.”  Everyone got that? @BradMunchen

With a market cap of $1.4 trillion, $TSLA is still massively undervalued when you look at the wave of energy, autonomous growth, manufacturing, AI and robotics that is coming.

Longer term, Tesla will be much larger than people think or can even imagine.

For many years while https://t.co/nIh7Wwx9wL


Summary: Bearish FRPT to $20 on Blue Buffalo undercutting FRPT pricing at Costco/Walmart/Target.

$FRPT stock is headed to $20 IMHO.

Tom Chanos called it last week.

Watch the replays for more alpha:

https://t.co/xnnGEswQJC

@gnoble79 Thanks George. I checked Costco last night, Blue Buffalo LOWERED their prices 14%, from $2.75/lb to $2.37 vs FRPT @ $2.87.  So BB is now 21% cheaper at Costco and much cheaper than at Walmart/Target.


Summary: Remains short TSLA; chart rolling over, relative strength failing, multiple negative catalysts ahead.

I prefer my chart. $TSLA chart starting to roll and relative strength failing. I forsee a bunch of negative catalysts. I remain short $ TSLA. https://t.co/6jyqlFo63S

$TSLA multi-year cup & handle with breakout above the neckline

Bullish https://t.co/BpwDb8wMRT


The stock also remains wildly expensive, selling on 14x revenues (ignore gross value of homes) and 5x book. $OPEN has lost money. EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. SELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD.

Summary: Bearish OPEN: asset-heavy low-margin model, wildly expensive at 14x revenues/5x book, cumulative $4B losses — explicit sell call.

$OPEN has much bigger problems than the speed with which they turn over homes.

Instead they remain trapped in the asset  heavy, low margin, cut throat business of flipping homes.

The stock also remains wildly expensive, selling on 14x revenues (ignore gross value of homes) and 5x book.

Anyone who disagrees with these FACTS is a financially illiterate bag holder.

$OPEN has lost money.

EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

@ericjackson belongs in jail.

@rabois is a liar. Ignore him.

The vast majority of the cumulative losses of $4b occurred under the leadership of @rabois. Never forget this.

SELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD.

The biggest risk in Opendoor’s model was never buying homes.

It was holding them too long.

That’s where companies died.

And Opendoor just proved they solved it.

They cut homes sitting over 120 days from 51% → 33% in ONE quarter.
Their newest cohorts are turning 2x faster https://t.co/Pzn8jrH3gC


Summary: Long gold/silver, short bonds (yields rising further), reduce S&P equity risk on Japan contagion + 39 CAPE valuation.

JAPAN'S BOND MARKET IS SENDING A WARNING

And most investors have no idea what it means for their portfolio.

Let me explain:

On Tuesday, Japan's 40-year bond yield smashed through 4% for the first time in history.

The 30-year hit 3.7%. The 20-year reached 3.5%. The 10-year touched 2.38% - highest since 1999.

The single-day moves on 30 and 40-year JGBs? Over 25 basis points.

That's the biggest spike since Trump's Liberation Day tariffs whiplashed global markets last April.

But this time, Japan is LEADING the selloff, not following.

Here's why this matters for your portfolio:

Japan's bond market isn't some isolated backwater. It's the third-largest debt market on the planet at $7.4T.

"What happens in Japan does not stay in Japan."

Within hours of Japan's meltdown, the US 30-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points to 4.93%. The UK, Canada, Germany - all saw yields spike in sympathy.

The trigger? Prime Minister Takaichi announced a snap election and proposed tax cuts that spooked bond vigilantes.

But here's what the mainstream is missing:

This isn't about one election. This is about 3 decades of impossible math catching up to Japan.

Japan's debt-to-GDP sits at 235%. Highest of any advanced economy. Higher than Greece at its worst.

For decades, the Bank of Japan kept yields near zero by buying any bond that moved. They called it Yield Curve Control.

That game is OVER.

The BOJ abandoned YCC in March 2024. They ended negative rates. They raised to 0.75% in December - highest since 1995. Governor Ueda just said he'll "keep raising rates."

Meanwhile, Japanese inflation has run above the BOJ's 2% target for 43 straight months.

When you owe 235% of GDP, every 1% rise in interest rates is an existential threat to your budget.

But the contagion risk is what should terrify you...

Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries at $1.2 trillion.

Japanese life insurers manage over $2.6 trillion in assets. Much of that is parked in foreign bonds.

When Japanese yields rise, the incentive to "reach for yield" overseas disappears.

Japanese insurers have "reached a turning point" and are retreating from foreign debt.

Remember August 2024?

The BOJ raised rates and the Nasdaq crashed 13% in less than a month as the yen carry trade unwound.

That was just a taste.

The BIS estimates roughly $250B in yen carry trades existed going into that volatility event. Deutsche Bank pegged it closer to $500B.

When those trades unwind, investors sell US assets to repay yen loans. The correlation is brutal.

And here's the bigger picture:

If Japan - the poster child for "debt doesn't matter" - suddenly faces real borrowing costs, what does that signal for every other indebted nation?

The US is at 120% debt-to-GDP. Italy, France, the UK - all running massive deficits.

Investors are asking: "If Japan pays 4% on 40-year debt, what should the US pay?"

That's how a "local" tantrum becomes a global repricing of sovereign risk.

We saw this movie in the UK in 2022. Truss announced unfunded tax cuts. Gilt yields exploded. The Bank of England intervened within days. Truss was gone in 44 days.

There are striking similarities between Japan and the UK situation.

The difference? Japan's debt pile is 2.5x larger relative to GDP.

“How did you go bankrupt?
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Here's what I'm doing:

- Buying precious metals. Gold just hit $4,800 and silver touched $95 because smart money sees what's coming.

- Selling bonds. Most investors will be shocked by how much further yields can rise. This repricing has legs.

- Reducing risk in equity portfolios. The S&P 500 trades at a Shiller CAPE near 39 - second highest ever - during a midterm year when markets historically struggle.

Add Japan's bond crisis to an already fragile equity market, and the risk/reward for staying fully invested looks terrible.

Japan's bond market is the canary in the coal mine for global sovereign debt.

That canary just stopped breathing.

---

This clip is from a month-old 90 min interview where I called the exact situation we’re seeing with Japan.

Want the full breakdown, how it lines up with what’s coming next, and how to make money from it?

Sign up to my Substack - I’ll share it there soon:
https://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3


Silver commodity; SLV is standard ETF proxy


Summary: Endorses bearish TSLA view on collapsing Q4 sales; 'car crash inbound' signals imminent decline.

your Q4 sales are about to go down from 495K quite likely to 400K. Like -25% YoY. Your only hope is to make an “unsupervised robotaxi” demo  show to disguise this disaster and you still dont do it. How bad is the softwate Tesla? $tsla


$OPEN is very expensive and already assumes a big turnaround. SELL is not a four letter word.

Summary: Bearish OPEN: expensive valuation already prices in a big turnaround; author explicitly says sell.

When you strip out the story and look at the numbers, Opendoor’s valuation raises hard questions. @gnoble79 walks through the math.

#Opendoor #Valuation #Investing #StockMarket https://t.co/msViSXf7zU


Summary: Bearish TSLA: earnings estimates down 80%, deliveries declining third consecutive year, stock overvalued vs fundamentals.

$600?
Based on what, exactly?
I will wait.

---

$TSLA is flat and has massively underperformed the last four years.
Earnings estimates have collapsed by 80% and auto deliveries will fall again in 2026 for the third consecutive year.

$TSLA epitomizes everything that is wrong with markets today. https://t.co/yBK4FzppC3


History would argue that buying $MU now is likely to lead to poor returns over time. Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when, not if.

Summary: Bearish MU: wildly over-earning at cycle peak, expensive on P/B, earnings/stock price collapse is inevitable per cyclical history.

“Nobody knows where this cycle will end.” Agreed. I don’t. You don’t.
But we do know that $MU is expensive on a price to book basis. As I learned from my former boss Peter Lynch it is usually a bad idea to buy a stock in a cyclical industry when it appears cheap. Micron is inexpensive based on current earnings, but is wildly over earning at present. Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when, not if. History would argue that buying $MU now is likely to lead to poor returns over time.

I just doubled my position in $MU. Now ~6% of my portfolio. Reasons in screenshot.

Give me your best argument on how/why Micron would not be a $750-$1,000 stock by end of 2026. I think that might even be super conservative. Go! https://t.co/rbTkPibNa5


Summary: Short OPEN from $7.5; dismisses bullish narrative as absurd, implying continued downside.

I am short from $7.5, so I am good - $OPEN shareholders, not so much. The question $OPEN bagholders need to answer is at what point will they realize they have been bagged? If you are unable to answer that question, then that proves that you really don’t know what you own. Instead you are guilty of FOMO and chasing an absurd narrative from @ericjackson @rabois and @APompliano
Your issue should be with them.
You should be thankful for the public service we have provided for speaking the truth.

@gnoble79 so you would only cover if the management changes your mind? even if the price goes to $8 and you're upside down? curious your price target for covering?


Gold. The song remains the same. Own it. Don't trade it.

Summary: Decisive buy-and-hold verdict on gold: own it, don't trade it.

Gold.  The song remains the same.
Own it. Don’t trade it.

@LukeGromen @DonDurrett


Summary: Market complacent on Hormuz closure; Brent to $100+ is a certainty in 2-3 weeks, energy stocks best sector, natgas spiking, bonds casualty of the shock.

BNO is the primary Brent crude ETF proxy

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED AND OIL IS AT...

$89.

Wait what?

20% of global oil supply just got shut off.

The most critical energy chokepoint on planet Earth went dark a week ago.

And Brent crude is sitting at just a 9 month high.

Not an all-time high. Not even $100.

A 9 month high.

The market is either very smart or very complacent.

And I think it's COMPLACENT.

Here's why:

Markets have a long history of initially shrugging off major shocks, then panicking weeks later.

When COVID emerged, stocks barely flinched. Then they crashed 34% in five weeks.

When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, oil actually TRADED LOWER over the following 48 hours. Then it surged to $120.

Right now, the oil futures curve is screaming the same pattern. ..

The front-month contract has spiked. But the 12-month contract has barely moved.

This means the market is pricing this as a short-term disruption that resolves quickly.

But look at the facts on the ground:

Iran's entire leadership has been decapitated. The IRGC declared the strait closed and threatened to set any ship on fire that tries to pass. Traffic through Hormuz has dropped to effectively ZERO.

At least 5 tankers have been hit. Insurers have pulled war risk coverage entirely. Every major shipping line - Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC - has suspended transits.

VLCC tanker rates hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $423,000 per day. That's a 94% jump in a single session.

And it's not just oil.

Qatar halted LNG production after Iranian drones hit its facilities. That's 20% of global LNG supply.

European natural gas futures jumped 30% overnight. Jet fuel costs are soaring.

Crack spreads are ripping higher.

Iraq is SHUTTING DOWN production at its largest fields because with the strait closed, it has nowhere to put the oil.

And this gets worse the longer it drags on.

Sulfuric acid exports from the Middle East are being disrupted. Acid is needed to turn ore into copper.

Natural gas shortages are already curtailing urea production in India and Pakistan - which means lower crop yields and higher food prices.

This isn't just an oil shock. It's a global supply chain CRISIS in slow motion.

OPEC's response? They added 206,000 barrels per day.

The disruption threatens 15-20 MILLION barrels per day. That's like fighting a wildfire with a garden hose.

And here's the strategic problem everyone's ignoring:

The US wants a quick war. A Venezuela-style capitulation - new leaders, deal done, markets reopen.

But there's nobody left to negotiate WITH.

Israel keeps eliminating anyone who emerges as a potential successor. Iranian generals have been instructed to keep fighting without a chain of command.

Iran's ONLY strategy is to drag this out and inflict economic pain.

The longer the strait stays closed, the more leverage they have. And they don't need a navy to keep it closed - a few cheap drones have accomplished what submarines and mines couldn't.

The asymmetry is devastating:

Million-dollar missiles intercepting drones worth tens of thousands. That math works for a week. Not for a month.

If this war lasts another 2-3 weeks, Brent at $100 isn't a forecast. It's a certainty.

Energy stocks are the best-performing sector of 2026. XLE is up over 26% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is basically flat.

The market is pricing in a resolution that doesn't exist yet.

The first casualty in war is always truth, and bonds are a close second.

Oil at $89 with the strait closed is the market telling you it doesn't believe this is real.

But it's real...

---

If you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...

Sign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.

Join thousands of investors navigating the market:
https://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3


Energy stocks are the best-performing sector of 2026. XLE is up over 26% year-to-date


Summary: Long silver targeting $200–$500 on COMEX supply fracture, physical scarcity, and structural deficit; short DXY on multi-year support break.

The global monetary system is cracking—trust in fiat is evaporating, central banks are hoarding physical metals, and silver sits at the epicenter.

Key signals flashing right now (Jan 23, 2026):

- Silver spot ~$99/oz (hitting all-time highs, up massively YTD) 🚀
- DXY breaking multi-year support, around 98.3–98.4
- Japan 40-year JGB yields at ~4% (record highs), sparking repatriation & pressuring US debt funding
- Shanghai physical silver trading at $10–13+ premium over COMEX (decoupling East-West hard)
- COMEX registered inventory draining fast (millions oz withdrawn recently, coverage ~15–25% of paper claims amid huge delivery notices)

China weaponizing silver exports + endless industrial demand (solar, EVs, AI) vs. tiny mining growth = structural deficit that paper can't hide anymore.

Michael Oliver (nailed '87 crash) sees silver regime change: breakout vs gold signals $200 min, possibly $300–$500 in months if historical ratios kick in (gold to $8k? Silver explodes).

BofA ~$110 H2 '26, Citi $100 soon—feels conservative when physical scarcity + gamma squeeze collide.

This isn't hype. Paper vs physical is fracturing. COMEX on fumes, lease rates spiking, margins hiked in panic.

Silver at $99 today. Positioned & watching it unfold. Corrections? Buy 'em fast—this system's breaking vertically.

What do you think—$200 coming quick or bigger blow-off? #SilverSqueeze #PreciousMetals #MonetaryReset


Summary: Holding TSLA short; expects at least 50% decline as fundamentals implode and investor patience with Musk runs out.

@TargaGordon Hard to predict over such a short term time span. I am not in this just for 9% (profit so far). I expect the stock to fall at least 50% as the fundamentals implode and investors tire of the BS from @elonmusk

@gnoble79 Your short is finally coming into the money here, where do you see TSLA ending up short term (4 week outlook). At that point you’d have held that coming on to 2 months


Summary: Still short BETR; stock already down 27% since December short declaration, remains convicted bearish.

No I remain short $BETR.  The stock has declined 27% since I declared the short in December. I tried to warn folks, but the bagholders did not listen. The $SHOP of mortgages? I think not. @ericjackson belongs in jail. Call 1-800-stock loan. @CedarStResearch https://t.co/R1qy88K0Ra

@gnoble79 Hi George, did you close out your $BETR short yet?  Probably a good idea if you haven't, I would think, right?


Summary: Short AI, semis, software, meme stocks, and TSLA; valuation bubble analogous to March 2000 dot-com crash with rotate-out-of-speculation thesis.

THE DEATH OF SPECULATION

If you don’t understand why the market is falling, then you haven’t been in the stock market long enough.

In March 2000 everything was hunky dory. Everything was perfect. The biggest crash of our lifetime started when people started to seriously
question the dominant narrative.
Naive tech investors were chasing stories, regardless of valuation.

Trees do not grow to the sky.

Fundamentals matter.

Valuations matter.

Short  anything AI related.

Short semis, software.

Short all meme stocks.

Short $TSLA . Short @elonmusk

Short @DivesTech , @CathieDWood

Short @APompliano , @ericjackson

ROTATE. ROTATE. ROTATE.

There is nothing new under the sun.

Can someone explain to me like I’m 10 years old as to why the stock market is crashing today? https://t.co/g1ax3upaav


Broad AI sector short; AIQ most direct proxy


Summary: Bearish TSLA; claims fundamentals are imploding and few are discussing it.

New podcast is out!

Revealing the truth behind Tesla - and why the fundamentals are IMPLODING.

I don’t see many people talking about this. $TSLA

Check it out:

https://t.co/rQNWoTxDnB


Summary: Expects an epic collapse in TSLA; decisively bearish.

Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Preview: Spectacle, Valuation & the Robotaxi Coliseum https://t.co/onkWxvDaqk
Fantastic article.
The comimg collapse of $TSLA will be truly epic.


Summary: Avoid semis/Big Tech/software on peak-cycle valuations; rotate into gold, energy, and emerging markets as regime shifts away from free-money era.

SMH is dominant global semiconductor ETF proxy

STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks.

The global semiconductor industry is expected to hit $975 billion in sales this year. A historic peak. Revenue growth north of 25%.

Every cycle peak sounds the same: this boom is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. AI demand is permanent. The old rules don't apply.

"It's different this time," they say.

I've heard those 4 words more times than any others in 45 years on Wall Street. They're always wrong.

Here's how I think about it:

When any industry generates obscene profits, capital floods in to compete those profits away.

The higher the margins, the faster it happens.

Semiconductor margins right now are at levels that would make a drug cartel blush.

Look at Micron. The crowd says it's "cheap" because the PE looks low.
Except Micron's price-to-book ratio sits at roughly 7x. The 10-year median is 1.86x. The historical floor is 0.81x.

That's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend.

This is the oldest trap in cyclical investing.

You see it in shipping. You see it in commodities. Earnings spike, multiples look compressed, everyone piles in. Then the cycle rolls over and those "cheap" earnings disappear.

Now layer on the bigger picture:

New capacity is already being announced across the industry.

The hyperscalers alone - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta - plan to pour $600-700 BILLION into AI infrastructure this year. That's 70%+ more than 2025.

They're consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing north of $400 billion to cover the rest.

Nobody can afford to stop spending because everyone else keeps spending. It's mutually assured destruction with better PR.

And historically, the companies that spend the MOST on capex deliver the WORST stock returns.

BCA Research just argued AI threatens all 3 pillars of Big Tech profitability;

1. Economies of scale
2. Network effects
3. Proprietary tech

Goldman Sachs compared software stocks to NEWSPAPERS in the early 2000s. The group that fell 95%.

Software is now underperforming the Nasdaq by the widest margin this century.

Meanwhile, the rotation I've been positioning for is already underway:

Most MAG 7 names are DOWN year to date. Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up.

Last year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P. This isn't starting. It's been happening since 2024.

So my framework is simple:

Valuation doesn't matter in the short run.

But the longer you go out, the more it matters.

And money ain't free anymore.

When capital was free, pigs flew. Unprofitable companies soared. Narrative crushed fundamentals.

That era is OVER.

The 60/40 portfolio hedges against recession. But recession isn't the risk. The risk is continued money printing, persistent inflation, and higher real rates.

Bonds don't protect you from that. Gold does. Energy does. Real assets do.

You don't need to get clever here. Just avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.

The regime is changing. The market's scorecard already tells you that every single day.

Are you listening?


That's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend


Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up. Last year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P


Summary: Publicly short from $475; live short position disclosed.

@NikosGalariotis I am publicly short from 475x
End of discussion.

@gnoble79 There is only one thing to do then. SHORT it like there is no tomorrow and gain from the 400 to 50 dollar spread . I am waiting for a screenshot of that. Otherwise you can put your opinion where it belongs.End of discussion.


Summary: Bearish OPEN: overvalued on simple math, no institutional ownership, virtually guaranteed poor return.

@VolaarRide @Stocktwits @open_army_japan @iamjohnbaiano @CapitanSteveo @APompliano @ericjackson @nejatian @philrosenn @rabois @natbrunell @andrewrsorkin FALSE. TOTALLY FALSE.
It’s simple math.
$OPEN is so expensive that one is virtually GUARANTEED a poor return.
That is why no institutions own the stock!!!

@gnoble79 @Stocktwits @open_army_japan @iamjohnbaiano @CapitanSteveo @APompliano @ericjackson @nejatian @philrosenn @rabois @natbrunell @andrewrsorkin If you value $OPEN on trailing earnings, it looks expensive.

If you model operating leverage and a successful turnaround, today’s multiple won’t matter.

That’s the entire debate.


Summary: Bearish IREN with a 90% decline forecast.


SHORT FRESH PET STOCK... And today's 10% drop isn't the end. It's the beginning.

Summary: Short FRPT: collapsing growth, guidance cuts, Blue Buffalo price undercutting, Costco private label threat, rising input costs, and negative sequential revenue signal further downside ahead.

FRESH PET IS A REAL DOG OF A STOCK

My good friend Tom Chanos said at last week’s conference:

SHORT FRESH PET STOCK

And the market finally started to figure it out.

FRPT dropped 10% yesterday on reports that Costco is developing its own fresh dog food under the Kirkland Signature brand to compete directly with Fresh Pet and Blue Buffalo.

This is a death blow for a company that was already in serious trouble.

For anyone who's been following the Fresh Pet short thesis that was presented at my Best Stock Ideas Summit last week, this is the nail in the coffin.

The case was already devastating BEFORE this news:

Fresh Pet's Q4 2025 revenue growth came in at 8.6%. Down from 43% in 2022. Down from 22% in 2024. That's an 80% collapse in the growth rate in 3 years.

They guided 2026 at 7% to 10%. The lowest in company history.

FOUR consecutive quarters of guidance cuts. One year ago they guided 21% to 24%. Now 7% to 10%.

Blue Buffalo, backed by General Mills and its $19 billion in revenue, had already launched its "Love Made Fresh" line into Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Costco. At Walmart and Target, Blue Buffalo undercuts Fresh Pet by 30% to 38% on price per pound.

That alone was a serious problem for a stock trading at 30 times earnings.

Now add Costco private label on top.

This would explain something that was flagged at my conference: on a recent Costco store check, the Fresh Pet refrigerator was MISSING. Replaced by a regular Costco refrigerator stocking both Fresh Pet and Blue Buffalo side by side.

If Costco launches Kirkland fresh dog food, it will be cheaper than both. That's what Kirkland does. That's the entire playbook.

Fresh Pet had the luxury of operating as a monopoly in refrigerated pet food for years. But then First Blue Buffalo entered. And now Costco private label.

The monopoly is being dismantled from multiple directions simultaneously.

And Fresh Pet's response to Blue Buffalo? They CUT their marketing budget by $13 million last quarter. Right as 2 massive competitors enter the market.

The earnings beat everyone celebrated came ENTIRELY from expense cuts, not business strength.

Meanwhile, input costs are surging:

Beef prices rose 15% in 2025. The USDA forecasts another 5.5% increase in 2026. Cattle inventories at a 75 year low. Fresh Pet can't raise prices because the competition is undercutting them.

Sequential revenue went negative for the first time in 17 quarters. Feeding your dog isn't cyclical. So if sequential revenue goes negative, they're LOSING existing customers - before Costco even enters the picture.

Over the last five years, Fresh Pet is down 60%.

And today's 10% drop isn't the end. It's the beginning.

Incredible call from Tom at the conference last week!

---

This is just 2 minutes from a 7 HOUR conference where 15 elite investors share:

- Long- and short-term stock picks
- Real, actionable market insights
- How to navigate this volatile market

Get the full replay with Tom Chanos + all the other replays:
https://t.co/talnERiTN2


Summary: Short TSLA; expects auto deliveries to decline for a third consecutive year in 2026.

I expect $TSLA auto deliveries to decline again in 2026 for a third consecutive year. SELL https://t.co/BUtOpfcVIO

@garyblack00 @gnoble79 Tesla is losing market share more rapidly that the EV market is growing and gross margins are also dropping. Without any new models coming out, sales will continue to decline and more rapidly.


Summary: Still long VAL/TDW and short TSLA; pair trade has 100%+ return since mid-Dec with more upside expected; TSLA seen as chronic underperformer.

https://t.co/D55y4kLlB1

Only up 65% on $VAL and 50% on $TDW since I made the call on 12/24/25.

$TSLA down 17% in the same period.

Got that Mikey?

---

https://t.co/6k23TWX2vE

---

My energy call on 12/14/25

---

Long $val vs short $tsla up over 100% since mid December. Much more where that came from IMHO.
$TSLA is unchanged and has massively underperformed over the last four years whereas the energy stocks have major upside IMHO. https://t.co/T5dKz5mAjS


the energy stocks have major upside IMHO

industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'


short $tsla ... $TSLA is unchanged and has massively underperformed over the last four years


whenever a management team is consumed by what the shorts are saying it is usually because the shorts are right. Et tu, @nejatian ? Et tu? $OPEN has lost money every single year since inception. Cumulative losses total nearly $4B

Summary: Bearish OPEN: management threatening short-sellers is a tell the shorts are right; $4B cumulative losses under current leadership confirm the bear case.

YOU WOULD THINK SO.

But what do I know? $OPEN

As Peter Lynch always says,  “A company's earnings and stock price are 100% correlated in the long run."

In my experience it is usually the case that whenever a management team is consumed by what the shorts are saying it is usually because the shorts are right.

Et tu, @nejatian ? Et tu?

(Note to self, $OPEN has lost money every single year since inception. Cumulative losses total nearly $4B - the vast majorly of which occurred under the leadership of @rabois and @ericwu01 )

@ericjackson @APompliano @m3_melody @Seawolfcap @RealJimChanos

@rabois @gnoble79 @ericjackson If shorts were right and the stock dropped this much, shouldn’t leadership reflect instead of threatening lawsuits?


Summary: Expects TSLA to go much lower; holding short position and monitoring fundamentals.

@JKFortySeven I don’t have a particular target price in mind. Let’s just say so expect $TSLA to go MUCH lower. I will be watching the fundamentals and will adjust my position accordingly.

@gnoble79 So like right now, youre really profitable off the 465 and I think 485? Do you have a target to take profit? Ive been up 2k on stuff and didnt take my profits, thought itd keep going) then got stuck for months because the trend shifted. Thanks for replying man


Summary: Bearish mega-cap/S&P 500 passive exposure on AI capex with no returns; long small-cap energy, commodity producers, and emerging markets as overlooked value plays.

PSCE tracks S&P Small Cap 600 Energy index

A $470 million Buffett disciple just closed his fund and declared stock picking is dead.

This is literally the most BULLISH SIGNAL for active management I've seen in years.

Guy Spier ran Aquamarine Fund for 28 years out of Zurich. Returned 1,186% since 1997. Won a charity lunch with Buffett in 2007.

And he just gave up.

His reason is that AI is making research obsolete. Everyone has access to the same data. The edge is gone.

I've heard this EXACT argument before.

In 1999, they said the internet eliminated information advantages.

In 2007, they said quant models had solved investing.

In 2012, they said passive indexing made stock picking pointless.

Every single time, the obituary for active management was written at PRECISELY the wrong moment.

Here's the data Wall Street doesn't want you to focus on:

In the first half of 2025, 46% of large-cap active managers BEAT the S&P 500. Only 22% of small-cap managers underperformed their benchmark. That's the best showing for small-cap stock pickers in over two decades of SPIVA data.

The moment everyone is giving up on active management is the moment active managers are performing BETTER than they have in years.

Meanwhile, investors yanked $640 billion from active mutual funds in 2025. Passive funds now control 55% of total US fund assets.

This is textbook contrary indicator territory.

When money floods mindlessly into index funds, it creates the EXACT inefficiencies that skilled stock pickers exploit.

Passive funds don't analyze balance sheets. They don't question management. They don't distinguish between a company trading at 8x earnings and one trading at 80x.

They just buy whatever's in the index regardless of price or fundamentals.

You can't call that investing.

And I'm not done here yet:

The Mag 7 stocks that drove the S&P 500 for two years are now spending $700+ billion annually on AI infrastructure with NO measurable productivity returns for most companies deploying it.

As valuations continue to compress, passive investors own every single one of those overpriced names by default.

Active managers can CHOOSE not to.

That's literally a superpower.

Spier said the Buffett-and-Munger approach of finding overlooked, high-quality companies at reasonable prices no longer works because "everybody is looking everywhere."

With respect - no, they're NOT.

Everybody is looking at the SAME 7 stocks. The same mega-cap tech names. The same AI narrative.

Nobody is looking at small-cap energy companies trading at 5x earnings. Nobody is looking at commodity producers with fortress balance sheets. Nobody is looking at emerging markets trading at historic discounts to US equities.

THAT'S where the edge lives.

The best opportunities in my entire career have come when the consensus said a strategy was dead.

Active management isn't dying.

The lazy version of it is.

And for those of us willing to do the work, ignore the noise, and think independently?

We HAVE entered the GOLDEN AGE of stock picking.

The herd is running in one direction.

I'm going the other way.


Summary: Implied long gold as the asset central banks are buying instead of Treasuries, contrasted against stablecoin/Treasury risks.

$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries.

And I don't understand why no one's questioning this.

Goldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch:

Stablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars.

Sounds great. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath...

The GENIUS Act passed in July 2025. First federal stablecoin framework in US history. Stablecoin market cap has grown 50% year over year. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest holders of American government debt on the planet.

Washington's pitch is simple: every time someone in Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria buys USDT, they're buying Treasuries by proxy. Dollar dominance strengthened. Problem solved.

And here's the part they REALLY love...

The US ran an $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025. CBO projects $1.9 trillion this year. National debt just crossed $39 trillion. Interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion annually.

Meanwhile, the biggest foreign buyers of Treasuries (China, Japan, Canada) have been pulling back for years. ARK Invest found that the share of Treasuries held by the largest foreign creditors dropped from 23% to just over 6% in the past 13 years. The Fed is STILL running down its balance sheet.

So who's going to buy all this debt? Washington's answer: stablecoin issuers.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said it himself: "A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries and help rein in the national debt."

Think about what that actually means.

The government is counting on a $315 billion crypto product (run largely by a company in El Salvador that just got its first real audit last week) to help finance a $1.9 TRILLION annual deficit.

Stablecoin issuers currently hold less than 2% of outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the market hits $2 trillion by 2028 like Standard Chartered projects, that's still just a rounding error against $39 trillion in total debt.

This is literally a NARRATIVE designed to make the debt problem sound manageable.

But the Federal Reserve published a study showing that for every $1 that moves from bank deposits into stablecoins, bank lending contracts by roughly 50 cents. Stablecoin issuers can't make loans. The GENIUS Act prohibits it. They can ONLY hold Treasuries, reverse repos, and cash equivalents.

So when deposits leave banks and flow into stablecoins, that money stops funding mortgages, small business loans, and commercial credit. It starts funding government debt instead.

The US Treasury itself estimated stablecoins could drain up to $6.6 TRILLION from the banking system.

That's not "strengthening the dollar." That's redirecting the lifeblood of the real economy into government IOUs while starving Main Street of credit.

And then there's the run risk nobody wants to discuss.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said it yesterday:

Stablecoin issuers have every incentive to chase higher returns on their reserves. But unlike banks, they CANNOT access the Fed's discount window. If a stablecoin run happens, issuers dump Treasuries into the market all at once.

Stablecoin inflows push Treasury yields down 2-2.5 basis points. Outflows spike yields UP 6-8 basis points. Easy in. Ugly out.

Meanwhile, Tether is the 800-pound gorilla. $185 billion in circulation. 550 million users. And until last week, it had never had a Big Four audit. It just hired KPMG after 12 years of operating with nothing but quarterly attestations.

This is the entity Wall Street is celebrating as the future of dollar dominance. A company headquartered in El Salvador that fought transparency in court twice and LOST both times.

Here's what Solomon and Mnuchin are actually telling you if you listen carefully:

Stablecoins create captive demand for short-term US government debt. Foreign governments don't want to hold Treasuries anymore. So Washington's solution is to get 550 million retail users in emerging markets to hold them instead through a digital wrapper called a "stablecoin."

The holders get zero interest. The GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits it. The issuers pocket the Treasury returns. Tether made $10 billion in profit last year. And the real economy loses credit while the government gets cheaper funding.

This is a classic Wall Street pitch to sell financial innovation as progress:

"This strengthens the system. This is good for everyone."

Then the leverage builds, the risks concentrate, and the people who sold you on it are nowhere to be found when it unwinds.

Stablecoins are NOT saving the dollar. They're a $315 billion shadow money market fund with no Fed backstop, no deposit insurance, and run dynamics that could destabilize the very Treasury market they're supposed to support.

If you want to hold dollars, hold dollars. If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is...

🥇

---

Join us on Substack if you want actionable value I'm not sharing on X:

https://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3


Summary: Bearish MSTR with PT $98.46 by 2026; expects an epic collapse.

I have spent the entire morning so far doing an updated analysis on $MSTR and I am lowering my price target for 2026 from $100 to $98.46. Should be an epic collapse. @MichaelMOTTCM


Summary: Bearish OPEN: guiding for losses in 2026, valuation expensive on present metrics, ludicrous to own.

On that basis then it is totally ludicrous to own shares in $OPEN
The company is guiding for losses again in 2026.
What is beyond dispute is that the valuation is very expensive on present metrics.
By your own logic therefore to own $OPEN based on a narrative of profits years out in the future…

@nejatian @dayetweets @m3_melody @1TradingDee

@gnoble79 I don't think anyone can see 3 years into the future.


In what universe is 50 times revenues a bargain? ... I don't think this is a dip. I think it's a REGIME CHANGE.

Summary: Regime change thesis: short high-multiple tech (PLTR, NOW, Mag7) and Bitcoin; rotate long into energy, commodities, and small/mid-cap value on valuation and macro grounds.

This is insane to me.

Palantir just fell 30% and people are calling it cheap.

It's trading at 50 times REVENUES.

Not earnings. Revenues.

Let me tell you something:

Before the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco, Microsoft, and Amazon peaked at price-to-sales ratios between 30 and 50. Palantir blew past 100x at the top and people are calling a pullback to 50x a buying opportunity.

In what universe is 50 times revenues a bargain?

This one, apparently. Because an entire generation of investors has been conditioned to confuse price with value.

They're TWO DIFFERENT things.

Price is what you see on the screen. It tells you nothing about what you're actually buying.

A stock falling 30% doesn't make it cheap. It might still be wildly expensive.

And a stock going up doesn't make it a good investment. It might just mean someone is willing to pay more for trading sardines.

You know the story.

Big bidding war at the Tokyo fish market. Sardines keep changing hands at higher and higher prices.

Last guy opens the can, tastes one, spits it out. Wants his money back.

Seller looks at him like he's crazy.

"Those sardines aren't for eating. They're for trading."

That's what happened with a lot of this merchandise the last few years.

Palantir. ServiceNow, still trading at 60+ times earnings AFTER the selloff. The whole Mag 7 complex.

It all worked when liquidity was abundant and everyone was running the same playbook:

Buy the narrative. Ignore valuation. Let momentum do the work.

It worked the last 5 times. Then one day it doesn't.

I think that day is here. And I don't think this is a dip. I think it's a REGIME CHANGE.

Tech outperformed the market for over a decade. The US outperformed the rest of the world.

Large caps crushed everything. Much of it was justified. Relative price follows relative earnings. Credit where it's due.

But we went through a 40 year cycle of falling interest rates. And that's OVER.

The things most sensitive to liquidity, like high-multiple tech and Bitcoin, are struggling. The things sensitive to inflation and real growth are working.

Energy over tech. Commodities over crypto. Small cap value over mega cap growth.

They're all planets orbiting around the same sun.

The buy-the-dip crowd thinks this is just another pullback before regular scheduled programming resumes.

Palantir goes back to 125 times revenues. ServiceNow back to 20 times sales. The Mag 7 rips to new highs.

Maybe. But ask yourself this:

If the tide has actually turned, and you're still holding these names at these valuations, what's your margin of safety? Where's the floor?

There isn't one. Because when you pay 50 times revenues for a company, you're not investing. You're speculating that someone will pay 60x after you.

Meanwhile the Russell isn't the answer either...

40% of those companies don't make money. Small cap growth is still absurdly expensive.

The only segment that looks genuinely interesting is small cap value, and even there you have to do the work.

My playbook hasn't changed:

Own things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back.

Energy. Commodities. Select small and mid-caps where the PE starts with a 1, not a 7.

The last shall be first. The first shall be last.

POSITION ACCORDINGLY

---

If you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...

Sign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.

Join thousands of investors navigating the market:
https://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/BdjnmoKmqd


Energy over tech. Commodities over crypto. Small cap value over mega cap growth. Own things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. Energy.


Commodities over crypto. Own things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. Energy. Commodities.

Broad commodities basket; DJP tracks Bloomberg Commodity


The only segment that looks genuinely interesting is small cap value. Own things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. Select small and mid-caps where the PE starts with a 1, not a 7.

IWN tracks Russell 2000 Value (small cap value)


Summary: Bullish on OWL with a teasing 'probably nothing' hint; decisive implied long.

Probably nothing;) $OWL https://t.co/Q5Cg4PBrK5

---

Run, don’t walk from this capital incinerator. https://t.co/Rv1M8UDwwN

---

$OWL https://t.co/gkOIhZE0HA


Summary: Expects TSLA 2026 revenues below consensus/parent's $110B estimate on a third consecutive year of declining auto deliveries.

@Gfilche @Tesla I expect lower revenues in 2026 as auto deliveries fall for the third consecutive year.

projecting $TSLA will grow revenue by 17% next year 📊

from ~$94B in '25 to $110B in '26 📈

what are your estimates? ⚡ @Tesla https://t.co/m2GrOrjwhR


Summary: Long gold on structural Chinese buying floor; bearish Mag 7 on stretched valuations vs cheap Chinese AI; bearish NVDA on China market share collapse to 8%.

We're watching the biggest shift in global economic power unfold in real time.

While America debates tariffs, subpoenas its own Fed Chair, and spends $380 billion on AI infrastructure with no measurable returns...

China just executed the most AGGRESSIVE industrial strategy since the Marshall Plan.

This week alone, 5 Chinese AI companies - Zhipu, ByteDance, Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek - released or announced major model upgrades simultaneously during Spring Festival.

A RAND report published last month confirmed Chinese AI models now run at one-sixth to one-fourth the cost of comparable American systems.

One-sixth the cost.

Surveys show the vast majority of US companies investing in AI report "no change" in productivity, decision-making, or customer satisfaction.

America is burning cash. China is building products.

But AI is just one front.

The "Four Dragons" - Moore Threads, MetaX, Biren, Enflame - all went public or filed IPOs in the last two months.

Huawei is doubling output of its flagship Ascend chip to 600,000 units this year and outlined a 3 year roadmap to overtake Nvidia.

Bernstein estimates Nvidia's China market share will collapse from 40% to 8% under current export restrictions. Huawei's could rise to 50%.

Beijing is mobilizing $70 billion in chip incentives and mandating state telecoms replace AMD and Intel by 2027.

They're not competing with our tech stack. They're REPLACING IT.

Now look at energy:

China invested $1 TRILLION in clean energy in 2025. 4x what they spent on fossil fuels. Clean energy drove over a third of GDP growth last year.

They produce a full terawatt of solar panel capacity annually. Over 70% of global EV production is Chinese. Nearly half of all new cars sold in China are electric.

They can power their AI data centers with cheap renewable energy they built themselves.

Meanwhile, America is debating whether to keep wind subsidies.

The part that should concern every dollar-denominated investor:

China's central bank has bought gold for 15 consecutive months.

January reserves hit $369.6 billion, up $51 billion in a single month.

The World Gold Council suggests actual holdings could be DOUBLE the reported figures.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange is expanding renminbi-priced contracts overseas. Yuan-based trade is growing with Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Indonesia.

They're not just accumulating gold. They're building the infrastructure to challenge how global commodities get priced.

And China's trade machine? Record $3.77 trillion in exports last year.

$1.19 trillion surplus - the largest any country has EVER recorded.

But they've completely redirected it.

Exports to America fell 28.6%. Exports to Africa surged 27.5%. ASEAN up 8.2%.

Goldman raised its 2026 China growth forecast to 4.8%.

Add it up:

- AI at a fraction of the cost
- A parallel chip ecosystem
- $1 trillion per year in clean energy
- 15 months of gold buying
- A record trade surplus pivoted toward the Global South

Their 15th Five-Year Plan covers quantum computing, 6G, hydrogen energy, and biomedicine.

This is a country that installed 277 gigawatts of solar in a single year while we argued about tax credits.

My positioning:

Gold and precious metals remain a core holding. China's buying puts a structural floor under prices, and they're NOT slowing down.

Mag 7 valuations look increasingly stretched when a competitor builds comparable AI for pennies on the dollar.

Energy stocks stay attractive - the transition is measured in decades, not quarters.

China is building the future.

America is unfortunately just talking about it.

---

The Noble Update PREMIUM access is LIVE

Including 7 NEW features NOT available on the basic Substack:

- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for
- Best stock picks multiple times per month
- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the annual plan

And so much more!

This was in the works for a long time, and it's a steal for the value you get

Sign up here:
https://t.co/84R6JwvxlM


Mag 7 valuations look increasingly stretched when a competitor builds comparable AI for pennies on the dollar.

MAGS ETF tracks the Magnificent 7 stocks


Bernstein estimates Nvidia's China market share will collapse from 40% to 8% under current export restrictions.


Summary: Strongly bearish BTC; dismisses $60k cost-of-production floor narrative, expects a dramatic collapse from current levels.

Holders will be shocked by the extent of the coming collapse in $BTC

SHOCKED

Bitcoin breaches $64k to the downside.
But not to worry as Tom Lee @fundstrat promised (last week) that $60k will be the bottom (because it approximates the cost of production).
Made up narrative.
I call BS.
Again.
@dougkass @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeDJ


Summary: Bearish on Tesla; expects sales to decline in 2026 for the third consecutive year, undercutting the bull case valuation.

@RangarajSrikan1 @elonmusk That is quite optimistic in my view, especially as I expect sales to decline in 2026 for the third consecutive year.
To your credit however, you are one of the very few that even attempted to justify the valuation.

@gnoble79 @elonmusk 4 million cars , 25 percent gross margin, on 45k asp. And operating margin of 17 percent - basically I’m  predicting car sales will more than double very quickly and I’ve added Fsd into the gross profits.

Plus 5 billion in gross profit from energy (which directly translates to


Summary: Explicitly disagrees with parent's TLT bull thesis; calls for TLT to fall in 2026.

@commonsenseplay @TaviCosta Wrong conclusion. In fact, the opposite will occur. Short TLT.

@TaviCosta This means long term bonds ETF's like $TLT will rip higher in 2026.

https://t.co/dj1X82hKpA


I have never seen a stock so detached from reality for such a long period of time. It is always about tomorrow - but tomorrow never arrives. $TSLA stock has been fantastic, but the company has done abysmally on a fundamental basis. Just look at the financials.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: stock detached from reality, company fundamentally abysmal despite narrative-driven price strength.

@gnoble79 @elonmusk Shareholder base doesn't seem to care about car sales or losing subsidies and are so sold on robots and space they don't even care about Tesla robo-car fails.

No clue what such catalyst would be unless US markets find sobriety and/or some serious litigation drops


Summary: Live short position in OPEN from $7.50; bearish thesis intact, sees shareholders as bagholders.

@doebop Read my feed. I am short from $7.5, so I am all good. $OPEN shareholders, not so much. The question $OPEN shareholders need to answer is at what point will they realize they have been bagged. https://t.co/7rErmbJTzX

@gnoble79 so you would only cover if the management changes your mind? even if the price goes to $8 and you're upside down? curious your price target for covering?


Summary: Short OPEN: overvalued at 20x true gross profit; fair value $1.50–$4.00 on 3–10x tech multiple of $378M gross profit.

Your valuation methodology is completely flawed and nonsensical.
The relevant number for comparing $OPEN to other companies is the $378 mm that they report as gross profits for the last 12 months, not the $4.7B that they show as revenues.
On that basis $OPEN is wildly overvalued at 20x revenues.
Application of 3x- 10x tech multiple
would imply a share price of
$1.50 to 4.00.

@gnoble79 George,

Do you know they are transitioning from iBuying, capital intensive, to an AI powered marketplace for sellers and buyers.

Do you know Uber was started by a dude who was not in the taxi company.

Do you know sometimes it's good to have someone not in the industry to


Summary: Bullish on XLE after recent pullback; sees current level as good entry.

@nickgiva1 Actually think now is a good entry point after the recent correction!

@gnoble79 I was actually looking at this...but you are right, there were signs even here and in XLE. https://t.co/IEBPwKVgsY


Apple is going to win the AI race because they're REFUSING to participate. This is not falling behind. This is capital allocation at the highest level.

Summary: Long AAPL on disciplined capital allocation vs AI capex arms race; bearish on AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT/META given catastrophic risk of $700B+ infrastructure spending failing to generate returns.

Apple is going to win the AI race because they're REFUSING to participate.

Everyone's laughing at them for "falling behind".

But there's a concept in investing most people misunderstand:

The assumption is that whoever spends the most wins.

Bigger capex = bigger moat = bigger returns

Historically, the OPPOSITE is true.

Companies that outspend their peers on capital expenditure consistently deliver worse forward returns than companies that exercise discipline.

The data is unambiguous.

And right now we're watching the most aggressive capex arms race in the history of corporate America.

Amazon announced $200 billion in 2026 capex. The stock dropped 11% the day after. Alphabet committed $175-185 billion. Microsoft $145 billion. Meta $115-135 billion.

These companies are now consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on infrastructure spending. They're borrowing over $400 billion collectively to cover the gap.

Meanwhile Apple:

- Sits on $130 billion in cash
- Returns $100+ billion a year to shareholders through buybacks and dividends
- Outsources its AI compute to partners instead of building its own infrastructure from scratch

Wall Street calls this "falling behind."

I call it DISCIPLINE.

And there's a perfect parallel from the auto industry:

Toyota refused to go all in on EVs when every other manufacturer was racing to electrify.

The media hammered them. Analysts downgraded them. The narrative was that Toyota was a dinosaur.

Instead, Toyota doubled down on hybrids, let competitors burn through capital on first-generation EV infrastructure, and watched the early adopters make expensive mistakes (eange anxiety, charging network gaps, margin compression).

The result? Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024. Fifth consecutive year as the world's top-selling automaker.

Hybrids now account for nearly half their US sales.

Their stock has outperformed every major traditional automaker over the past four years.

The late mover won. The disciplined capital allocator won.

Not because Toyota ignored the future but because they let EVERYONE ELSE pay for the learning curve.

That's EXACTLY what Apple is doing with AI.

They're watching Microsoft, Amazon, and Google pour hundreds of billions into data centers and GPU clusters. They're observing which approaches work and which don't.

They're keeping their powder dry.

When the technology matures and the economics clarify, Apple will move.

With $130 billion in cash, they can acquire or build whatever they need - on THEIR timeline, at THEIR price, after everyone else has made the expensive mistakes.

This is not falling behind. This is capital allocation at the highest level.

The companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history.

Apple's risk? Missing a cycle. That's manageable.

Everyone else's risk? Spending $700 billion on infrastructure that generates insufficient returns. That's CATASTROPHIC.

Sometimes the smartest move in an arms race is refusing to participate.

---

If you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...

Sign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to upcoming Best Stock Idea Summits.

Join thousands of investors navigating the market:

https://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3


The companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history.


I've been bearish on the Mag 7 AI capex story for months. $380 billion spent in 2025 with CFO surveys showing 'no change' in productivity. The earnings have accrued to the picks-and-shovels guys, not the dreamers.

Summary: Bearish Mag 7 AI capex plays on valuation disconnect, commoditizing models, and no productivity gains; OpenAI trial may be the catalyst that cracks the narrative.

Sam Altman has cultivated an image as the AI whisperer of our generation.

But his mask just got RIPPED OFF.

What's underneath should terrify anyone who believes in OpenAI at an $852 billion valuation...

Multiple OpenAI engineers revealed that Altman can barely code and routinely confuses basic machine learning concepts.

This isn't a hit piece from a rival. These are his OWN people.

A senior Microsoft executive (OpenAI's largest partner) went on record saying:

"I think there's a small but real chance he's eventually remembered as a Bernie Madoff- or Sam Bankman-Fried-level scammer."

That's from the company with a 27% stake.

Former OpenAI researcher Carroll Wainwright described the pattern:

"He sets up structures that, on paper, constrain him in the future. But then, when the future comes and it comes time to be constrained, he does away with whatever the structure was."

Insiders call it "Jedi mind tricks."

I call it something older: the con.

Now look at what's actually happening at OpenAI right now.

Jury trial begins April 27 in Oakland. Musk vs Altman.

Musk is seeking up to $134 billion in damages and wants Altman and Brockman removed from their positions.

The key piece of evidence? Brockman's own 2017 handwritten diary, surfaced in discovery:

"I cannot believe that we committed to non-profit if three months later we're doing b-corp then it was a lie."

A co-founder. In writing. In 2017. Using the word "lie."

The judge cited that entry directly when she ruled there was "ample evidence" for a jury.

Now the financial reality nobody wants to talk about:

OpenAI just raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation.

2025 revenue: ~$13 billion
2026 projected loss: $14 billion
Cumulative losses through 2028: $44 billion
Cash burn projected to hit $57 billion annually by 2027
Path to profitability: 2030, maybe

That's 65 times sales for a company losing more money than it earns. Traditional SaaS trades at 5-10x ARR.

To justify this valuation, OpenAI needs to hit $100 billion in annual revenue by 2029.

Nvidia did $130 billion in 2025 with a near-total monopoly on the largest hardware boom in human history.

OpenAI is supposed to match that in four years. Selling subscriptions.

And that's the BULL case.

The bear case? DeepSeek launched a 1 trillion parameter model priced at one-sixth the cost of US rivals. Chinese AI has erupted into a full price war. ChatGPT's web share collapsed from 86.7% to 64.5% in 12 months.

Models are commoditizing. Moats are evaporating. Compute costs are structural, not temporary.

And the man steering this $852 billion ship allegedly can't explain gradient descent to his own engineers.

I've seen guys like this many times. I watched it in 1999. I watched it in 2007.

The pattern is always the same:

A charismatic frontman. A "new paradigm" story. Valuations disconnected from cash flow. Insiders quietly cashing out while retail investors chase the narrative. Board structures designed to be "unwound" the moment constraints become inconvenient.

When Microsoft executives are whispering "Madoff" and co-founders are writing "it was a lie" in their diaries, you don't even need 45 years on Wall Street to know how this ends.

You just need to have been paying attention.

I've been bearish on the Mag 7 AI capex story for months. $380 billion spent in 2025 with CFO surveys showing "no change" in productivity. The earnings have accrued to the picks-and-shovels guys, not the dreamers.

OpenAI is the purest expression of this mania. And the jury selection on April 27 may be the moment the story finally cracks.

Caveat emptor.

---

If you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...

Sign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE ACCESS to upcoming events worth thousands.

Join 10,000+ investors navigating the market:
https://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3


Summary: Holds an active short position in TSLA at avg cost $475.

@vcdxnz001 Tesla stock is flat over four years and has massively underperformed the market.
I have had a spotty record shorting $TSLA.  I am most recently short with an average cost of $475.

@gnoble79 Do you ever get sick of being wrong all the time? How much have you lost shorting Tesla?


A Day of Reckoning Is Coming For Tesla. Excellent read.

Summary: Endorses bearish article predicting a reckoning for Tesla.

A Day of Reckoning Is Coming For Tesla https://t.co/6uarw9IloM

Excellent read. $TSLA


Summary: Short TSLA: $1.5T market cap versus $38B cumulative profits is indefensible; valuation sustained only by hopium.

@TeslaBoomerMama @elonmusk Responding in kind my dear….

The valuation of $TSLA is indefensible.
A market cap of $1.5T for a company  that has generated cumulative profits of $38b? Hopium is the only thing that is sustaining the share price.

@gnoble79 @elonmusk Other than insults, do you have anything else?


Summary: Strongly bullish gold; believes the SPX/gold regime shift is already underway and gold allocation should be maximized.

@benjamincowen The train has already left the station.
You can’t own enough gold. https://t.co/iKRZyb1mpx

This is one of the most important charts right now.

If SPX breaks down against Gold, the environment we have found ourselves in for the last decade will completely change. https://t.co/9sNFn8BBig


Summary: Reaffirms short BETR: dilution, cash shortfall masked by financials, CEO history of near-default, structural weakness post-SPAC.

There is less to $BETR than meets the eye - not terribly surprising for what was once SPAC. This article reads HORRIBLY. Stay short.

“ I was able to find another instance where Mr. Garg invested $5mm of his own money into the company. This was when the company was still private, but certain emails were made public in an article a few years ago. In this past case there were warehouse considerations and investor pressure so severe that the company was nearing a potential event of default (Mr. Garg’s words, not mine).

BETR is now public, and raised over $1B in equity capital since the $5mm investment documented in the above email, but is still in a position where it is in need of cash to support its business plan while managing warehouse constraints.”

$BETR Dilution continues, and there is far less cash available for the core mortgage business than you see on the financials. Their at-the-money appears to be a lifeline.

Read more at:
https://t.co/iJS6fC2qxJ

@gnoble79
@StockJabber


Summary: Own gold and energy; Gulf SWF forced selling poses structural downside risk to European blue-chip holdings like Volkswagen; Brent seen at $150-200 if Hormuz blockade persists.

$5 trillion in sovereign wealth is being rethought right now.

And most investors have no idea what that means for their portfolios.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds (Saudi Arabia's PIF, Abu Dhabi's ADIA, Qatar's QIA) collectively control roughly $5 trillion in global assets.

They own stakes in Volkswagen, Barclays, Glencore, Harrods, the Shard, Heathrow Airport, and Canary Wharf. They're anchored across European blue chips, US Treasuries, Silicon Valley tech, and Manhattan real estate.

These funds were built for a rainy day.

And it's POURING.

One month into the Iran war, the damage is adding up FAST. Saudi Arabia was forced to cut oil production from 10.4 million barrels per day in February to 8 million in March. At Brent above $110, that's over $8 billion in lost crude revenue in a single month.

Add the shutdown of LPG terminals and surging insurance costs, and Saudi's total first month losses climb to roughly $10 billion.

The UAE got hit differently. Not just oil disruption - Iran's drones struck data centers, ports, and aviation infrastructure. Dubai and Abu Dhabi built their global brand on logistics, tourism, and trade. All three are now under severe strain.

Qatar may have it worst though.

Its core LNG export infrastructure took direct hits. The $580 billion QIA owns trophy assets across Europe - 17% of Volkswagen, stakes in Barclays, Glencore, the London Stock Exchange, plus Harrods, Heathrow, and the Shard. If the conflict drags on, some of those crown jewels may need to become cash.

3 of the 4 largest GCC economies have already BEGUN internal reviews of their investment strategies.

They're reviewing existing contracts. Evaluating force majeure clauses. Reconsidering hundreds of billions in US investment pledges made to Trump just last year.

Here's what I want you to understand:

These funds don't just own stocks and buildings. They ARE the market in many corners of it.

When the third largest shareholder in Volkswagen starts thinking about liquidity, that's a structural event - not just a portfolio adjustment.

And the math is getting worse by the day.

Saudi Arabia's 2026 budget was ALREADY built on a $44 billion deficit. Public debt was projected to hit $430 billion. Oil still accounts for 54% of state revenues.

Every month this war continues forces Riyadh to choose between slowing Vision 2030 megaprojects or borrowing more on international markets.

The good news (if you can call it that) is these funds hold significant liquid assets. ADIA reports 60-75% of its portfolio in public equities and debt. They can sell without fire-sale conditions.

But "can sell" and "the market absorbs it smoothly" are two very different things.

The IEA's Fatih Birol said last week that April will be MUCH worse than March for oil supply. The ships that were already in transit when the war started have now delivered. Nothing new is coming through Hormuz. The physical reality is catching up to paper prices.

Brent is at $111 today. Goldman says $150-200 if the blockade persists through June. This is literally the worst energy disruption in history - bigger than '73, bigger than the Gulf War, bigger than the Russian gas cutoff.

Meanwhile, gold sits at $4,675. Up over 25% since early 2025.

The sovereign wealth fund story is the SECOND ORDER effect nobody's pricing in. Oil disruption is the headline. The possibility of $5 trillion in institutional capital being redeployed, liquidated, or frozen is the aftershock.

When governments face existential short-term risk, long-term investment horizons collapse overnight.

That's not theory. That's happening RIGHT NOW across the Gulf.

Own gold. Own energy. Stay out of the way of forced sellers.

---

Join us on Substack if you want actionable value I'm not sharing on X:

https://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3


Goldman says $150-200 if the blockade persists through June.


Who says they don't ring a bell at the top! This is a tell. $CRWV

Summary: Bearish CRWV; Chance the Rapper sponsorship signals AI bubble top.

Who says they don’t ring a bell at the top!  This is a tell. $CRWV #AI https://t.co/J3JjozB0aB

As far as blatant signs that AI is a bubble, I’d say “chance the rapper sponsored by coreweave” is one of the biggest https://t.co/crsyR7mj3t


Summary: Long gold and silver on Fed independence collapse eroding dollar trust; bearish USD as foreign capital flees to hard assets.

You might be watching the beginning of the end for the dollar's dominance.

And if you're still holding dollar-denominated assets while this unfolds in real time...

Let me tell you something:

On Friday, the Department of Justice served Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with grand jury subpoenas.

Not a request. Not a friendly inquiry.

A criminal investigation threatening indictment.

The official reason? Powell's testimony about a $2.5 billion building renovation.

But Powell himself called bullshit on that excuse.

In an unprecedented video statement, he said the quiet part out loud:

"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President."

Translation: The executive branch is using criminal prosecution to control monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve has operated independently since 1913.

111 years.

Through world wars. Through the Great Depression. Through 2008. Through COVID.

No president has ever used the DOJ to criminally threaten a sitting Fed Chair.

Until now.

The market reaction was instant:

Gold smashed through $4,600 for the first time in history.

Up 2% in a single day. Up 6% in 2026 alone.

HSBC says it could hit $5,000 in the first half of this year.

Why? Because the dollar's entire value proposition just got put on trial.

The dollar isn't valuable because of America's GDP or military.

It's valuable because of TRUST.

Trust that the Fed operates independently. Trust that monetary policy won't be dictated by whoever holds power this week.

That trust is evaporating in real time.

Foreign central banks have already dumped $113 billion in dollar reserves since September.

And they're not parking that money in other currencies.

They're buying gold.

For the first time since 1996, gold now makes up a larger share of central bank reserves than U.S. Treasuries.

The world's central banks trust a shiny metal more than American IOUs.

The playbook is textbook emerging market collapse:

1. Politicize the central bank
2. Erode institutional independence
3. Watch foreign capital flee
4. Currency devaluation
5. Inflation spiral

We just witnessed steps 1 and 2 happen simultaneously.

J.P. Morgan is forecasting gold at $5,055 by Q4 2026. Goldman Sachs says $4,900.

Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to replace Powell in May.

The same Kevin Hassett who's currently White House economic advisor.

The president's own guy running the Fed.

What happens to rate decisions then? What happens to the dollar's credibility?

The Nixon comparison is already being made.

In the 1970s, Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep rates low. It contributed to the worst inflation America had seen in decades.

But even Nixon didn't use criminal prosecution.

This is using the justice system as a weapon against monetary policy.

If you're still overweight dollar assets right now, you're betting that institutions will hold. That the dollar's 80-year reign as the world's reserve currency will survive what's happening.

Maybe you're right.

But the smart money isn't making that bet.

They're buying gold. They're diversifying out of dollar assets. They're treating America like a jurisdiction with increasing political risk.

Because that's exactly what it's become.

The DOJ just subpoenaed the Fed Chair for setting interest rates independently.

That's not "checks and balances."

That's institutional vandalism with better lighting and worse consequences.

Gold at $4,600 and silver at $85 are the market’s answer.

And I believe they’ll go much higher.

What are you betting on?


Gold at $4,600 and silver at $85 are the market's answer. And I believe they'll go much higher


Stack like your future depends on it—because it does. physical silver

Summary: Strong buy hard assets — silver, gold, and related ETFs — as dollar purchasing power collapses amid Fed money printing.

"This $1 American Silver Eagle—1 oz of real, .999 silver—is now worth $115 on the street (spot ripping through $103–$104/oz + premium rage).

That means your Federal Reserve toilet paper has ALREADY 99% of its purchasing power against silver.

The Fed criminals are still running the presses at warp speed—trillions more in fake debt and worthless digits being birthed every month while they laugh.

Wake the hell up.

Cash is dying. Savings accounts are a joke. Bonds are suicide.

If you're not stacking HARD ASSETS that can't be printed into oblivion—physical silver, gold,productive real estate, dividend-crushing stocks—you're volunteering to get poorer every single day.

The dollar is being murdered in broad daylight.

Stop being a victim. Stack like your future depends on it—because it does.

What do you think?

🦅🔥 NO EXCUSES     #GOLD #SILVER
#PLATINUM   $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL


HARD ASSETS that can't be printed into oblivion—physical silver, gold


Stack like your future depends on it—because it does. #GOLD #SILVER $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL


Stack like your future depends on it—because it does. $GDX $SIL


Summary: Bullish silver; endorses thesis that the recent crash changes nothing and the long-term monetary disorder trend continues.

SI=F is silver futures; SLV is standard ETF proxy

TRUTH. MUST READ.

THE BILL IS COMING DUE FOR DECADES OF RECKLESS ECONOMIC POLICY.

THE ESTABLISHMENT IS PANICKING.

FRIDAY CHANGES NOTHING.

THE SONG REMAINS THE SAME.

SILVER & THE 10-SIGMA CRASH: A Statistical Impossibility, Engineered Chaos, 5 Theories to Why, $7T Erased, The Physical Frenzy, & the Violent Birth Attempt of a New Monetary Order! https://t.co/dig3JIQlqQ https://t.co/HBnXziOPy5


Summary: Bearish Blue Owl / private credit: illiquid assets sold with false liquidity promises, gates going up as investors flee, facing class-action suit — structural crisis, not a software-default story.

"We're not halting liquidity, we're accelerating returns."

Beautiful language. Almost poetic. Reminds me of every press release I read from mortgage lenders in early 2007.

Let me translate from corporate PR to English:

You froze redemptions in November. You tried to force a merger that would have cost investors 20% of their money. Investors revolted. You killed the deal.

Now you're permanently replacing the quarterly tender offer with distributions YOU control, on YOUR timeline, and calling it an upgrade.

That's not "accelerating returns." That's telling investors they'll never again choose when to exit - and dressing it up as a favor.

They sold $600 million in assets at "99.7% of fair value."

But fair value according to whom?

The same managers who told investors there was "no meaningful pressure" on redemptions while $150 million was walking out the door?

The same firm now facing a federal class-action lawsuit for allegedly hiding a liquidity crisis?

And I keep hearing the clever argument that private credit is fine because software companies have sticky revenue, big equity cushions, and sponsors will play nice to protect their relationships.

I've been doing this for 45 years.

And every cycle produces a version of this  - smart-sounding people explaining why THIS time the risks are contained.

In 2006 it was: "Housing doesn't go down nationally."

In 2000 it was: "Revenue doesn't matter, it's about eyeballs."

Today it's: "Software companies can't blow up."

Maybe. But private credit didn't blow up because of software defaults.

It's blowing up because of what it always was: an illiquid asset class sold with a liquidity promise it could never keep.

The gates aren't going up because borrowers are defaulting. The gates are going up because investors want out and there's no exit.

When Blue Owl shuts off the comments section on their own announcement, that tells you more than the announcement itself.

When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.


Summary: Short all four named assets (BTC, ETH, BMNR, BITF); dismisses the support thesis.

Listen to me carefully.

Crypto is on a major support. Bitcoin, Ethereum, BMNR and BITF.

If we don't bounce and hold here, I can see Bitcoin at 52k and ETH at 1,5k.

Hope this helps and know the asset you're trading/ investing.


Summary: Bearish MU: expensive on P/B, wildly over-earning at cycle peak; capacity or demand shock will cause earnings/stock collapse, buying now leads to poor returns.

“Nobody knows where this cycle will end.” Agreed. I don’t. You don’t.
But we do know that $MU is expensive on a price to book basis. As I learned from my former boss Peter Lynch it is usually a bad idea to buy a stock in a cyclical industry when it appears cheap. Micron is inexpensive based on current earnings, but is wildly over earning at present. Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when, not if. History would argue that buying $MU now is likely to lead to poor returns over time.

I just doubled my position in $MU. Now ~6% of my portfolio. Reasons in screenshot.

Give me your best argument on how/why Micron would not be a $750-$1,000 stock by end of 2026. I think that might even be super conservative. Go! https://t.co/rbTkPibNa5


When an asset class trades inversely to its own thesis, I pay attention. When the volatility disappears and speculators find faster games, I pay attention. When the only people left defending it are the ones who bought at higher prices, I pay attention.

Summary: Bearish BTC: volatility gone, thesis broken, speculators leaving for better dopamine hits, long-term holders now selling supply into market.

BITCOIN IS FOR BOOMERS

Bitcoin is the Facebook of speculative assets.

Think about that for a second.

Your kids aren't on Facebook. Neither is anyone under 30. They're on Instagram, TikTok, whatever comes next.

Same thing is happening with Bitcoin.

The narrative was simple: digital gold. A hedge against fiat currency debasement. Store of value in an uncertain world.

So what happened last year?

Gold doubled. Silver tripled. The NASDAQ ripped higher.

Bitcoin? Went nowhere.

If you're rooting for risk assets to rally, Bitcoin should work. But it didn't.

If you're rooting for gold to rally, Bitcoin should work. But it didn't.

The volatility that made Bitcoin exciting is gone. And when there's no juice, speculators leave.

I had a young engineer in one of my Twitter Spaces a few weeks ago. Smart kid. He told me he sold his Bitcoin and bought gold and silver. Then he said he "totally disagreed" with my theory that declining Bitcoin volatility is bearish.

I asked him why he sold.

"It wasn't moving enough."

He literally proved my point without knowing it.

Meanwhile, the real action is elsewhere:

FanDuel. DraftKings. Zero-DTE options. Prediction markets.

Why wait around for a 10% Bitcoin move when you can get instant gratification betting on tonight's game or buying options that expire in 4 hours?

The democratization of speculation created better dopamine delivery systems. Bitcoin was the gateway drug. Now there's harder stuff.

And the hodlers who've been there since the early days are finally SELLING.

Supply is coming out. The diamond hands are becoming paper hands.

It's not my job to tell you what to think.

But when an asset class trades inversely to its own thesis, I pay attention.

When the volatility disappears and speculators find faster games, I pay attention.

When the only people left defending it are the ones who bought at higher prices, I pay attention.

Bitcoin isn't dead. The internet didn't die after 2000 either.

But if you bought Cisco at the peak, you're still underwater 25 years later.

The technology can survive...

Your portfolio might not.

---

The Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:

- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for
- Best stock picks multiple times per month
- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan

And so much more!

Join here:
https://t.co/84R6JwvxlM


Summary: Author discloses active short position in Tesla.

@SunilZA Totally disagree. I am sure that you have many opinions that are not expressed in your portfolio.
I am short TESLA.

@gnoble79 OF CUZ they do. Or keep your non-monetizeable opinion where it belongs.


Summary: Remains short SPOT: expensive valuation, slowing growth, weakening relative performance, below moving averages.

$SPOT is expensive, growth is slowing, relative performance is slipping and the stock is below moving averages. Remain short. https://t.co/scF1HJXFjg


Summary: Bearish OPEN; wildly overvalued, avoid.

@RedDogT3 $OPEN is wildly overvalued. Stay far away.

$open still consolidating https://t.co/pfV5mxULlY


Summary: TSLA is worth only $50, implying significant downside from current price.

@Bacon_Puddin That’s all you got? Pathetic. That has been addressed. Still only worth $50.
You are financially illiterate.

@gnoble79 You are an idiot… Tesla is not a car company.