Summary: Expects much lower prices ahead for both TSLA and BTC.

structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker

The lessons shall be presented until learned. Much lower prices ahead for $TSLA and #BTC. https://t.co/lCQh75kV7u


Much lower prices ahead for $TSLA and #BTC


Summary: Predicts TSLA crashes to $50 within 6 months, directly countering the parent's $400 PT bull thesis.

@garyblack00 $TSLA will be $50 within 6 months IMHO.

$TSLA catalysts - 12/31
1/ TSLA 4Q delivs/EPS Jan
2/ $7,500 EV credit into effect Jan
3/ FSD V11 beta wide release Jan
4/ Megapack revs/profits 1Q
5/ TWTR CEO announcement 1Q
6/ New gigas 1Q
7/ TSLA $10B buyback 1Q
8/ Cytruck launch mid-FY’23
9/ $30K Compact FY’24
$400 PT 6-12 mo


Summary: GLD outperforming QQQ; GLD going much higher relative to QQQ — long GLD, short QQQ.

$GLD vs $QQQ going much higher IMHO https://t.co/dlbslKknA8


Things you don't see at a bottom in a stock $TSLA

Summary: Retail buying into TSLA price drops is not a bottoming signal; implied further downside ahead.

Things you don’t see at a bottom in a stock $TSLA

Retail investors keep boosting their purchases of Tesla as prices drop.

Source: @vandaresearch https://t.co/x7cDbI28wg


Summary: Author endorses adding to the short on TSLA, framing de-rating as inevitable and already underway.

“Tesla: The Inevitable De-Rating Is Here - Time To Add To The Short?” There, I fixed it.@TommyThornton @StanphylCap @WallStCynic @GordonJohnson19  @lisaabramowicz1 @carlquintanilla  @BradMunchen $TSLA https://t.co/LsrZRTdO16


Summary: Bearish TSLA to sub-$50 within 6 months on competitive destruction.

@farzyness $TSLA will be destroyed by the competition. The stock will be sub $50 within 6 months. The beatings shall continue until morale improves.

Once $TSLA isn’t perceived as a risky investment and pathway to $100B Net Income per year becomes unstoppable due to EV adoption and Energy growth, I predict buying pressure to be immense. FED lowering rates and/or recession fears easing will be very large catalysts IMO - NFA


Summary: Predicts Tesla will be cut in half again very soon; strongly bearish.

@dwight_vk The car company that shall not be named will get cut in half again quicker than you can imagine. @GordonJohnson19 @StanphylCap @DougKass @TommyThornton This is not investment advice. Do your own work.

@gnoble79 Not good for Tesla stock price but Elon knows enough to pull out some funds and to have a nest egg for his family and other ventures. That is just good money management.


Summary: Endorses adding TLT by quote-retweeting without additional commentary.

EXACTLY @LukeGromen @biancoresearch @FerroTV @leadlagreport


Summary: Short TSLA: EPS collapses to $1.50, not $6; pricing/volume/backlog deteriorating; auto-sector PE of 10 implies ~$50 or lower.

@MarkFerrara12 @farzyness $TSLA will be lucky to make $1.50 EPS in 2023. Pricing and volume growth are collapsing. Backlog has evaporated. All their profits come from China. Auto stocks are lucky to sell on a PE of 10. $50 is being generous. SELL!!!

@gnoble79 @farzyness On lowered pricing, lowered margins, and lowered unit volume, still modeling ~$6 of EPS in 2023, which makes $TSLA cheaper than $AAPL, $MSFT and potentially $GOOG on forward basis. What gives you reason to believe it’s going to $50, esp. with Inflation Reduction Act subsidies?


Summary: Avoid PE firms KKR, BX, CG, OWL on stretched valuations and poor revisions.

Financials have been strong but the PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID https://t.co/wZidluPMHy

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$KKR valuation and revisions are poor. https://t.co/6A72F9CODs


Summary: Gold is the author's largest current position; ongoing long.

GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy

@SaneInWackyWrld Gold continues to be my biggest position.
As to the ignorance of other investors; https://t.co/fx1mpErp5J

@gnoble79 Why not just keep in simple and buy #gold? One other observation. There have been only 7 comments on your tweet. Yet every ignorant clown predicting that $TSLA will go to $2,600 a share and $BTC will go the $1M gets thousands of replies.


Summary: Bearish semis: only 27% above key moving averages, author warns caution.

The perspicacious @daChartLife observes that only 27% of the semis are above their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Beware. #semis https://t.co/O1zhwEbaX9


Summary: Short TSLA: units and pricing declining, earnings to collapse in 2025 with EPS falling to ~$1.

@MarioNawfal $TSLA sales fell already in 2024. Big competition coming. Earnings to collapse further in 2025. They will be lucky to make in $1 in EPS as units and pricing fall.


Summary: BTC likely to correct short-term, then bullish longer-term as liquidity expands.

Watch the video and you will understand. @crossbordercap has been correctly bullish on $BTC . Given the stellar performance of $BTC he acknowledges a correction is possible (perhaps likely) in the short run but remains optimistic thereafter as #Bitcoin will do will as liquidity expands.

@gnoble79 @BobEUnlimited Thought rising yields are bad for gold and bitcoin??


Summary: Author argues QQQ is a money illusion — fiat devaluation means gold (GLD) outperforms; implicitly bearish QQQ in real terms, bullish GLD.

is $QQQ in a bull market? https://t.co/ZPXE9VKZjk

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No, instead fiat currency is in a bear market as money is being devalued. QQQ has made zero progress vs $GLD over the last four years! MONEY ILLUSION! https://t.co/Fubt96IqKd


Summary: Bearish ARKK; expects it to keep declining.

TURN OUT THE LIGHTS @CathieDWood . The $ARKK continues to sink.  https://t.co/3VfvlkdqPn


Summary: Liquidity expansion from debt refinancing will drive GLD and BTC higher per Michael Howell's framework.

If this is true… https://t.co/Gn5lL4oF3e

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And with trillions of debt needing to be refinanced, more debt requires more liquidity. @biancoresearch

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Then Michael Howell will continue to be right. Liquidity driven assets will benefit the most. $GLD $BTC and various equities. @crossbordercap

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Please watch and subscribe to our channel.


Summary: Bullish BTC medium-term as liquidity expands; acknowledges short-run correction possible but overall remains long.

@gnoble79 @adamtaggart @crossbordercap #Bitcoin is down almost 6% over the last month, so no soaring as of late. https://t.co/Kf0a23Ynyq


Summary: Bearish MSTR; author argues it should trade below $200 despite bullish catalysts.

@WilliamNextLev1 It is indeed astonishing.  $MSTR should be sub $200.

It really is astonishing that $MSTR sits in the $200s after:

- US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
- inclusion into $QQQ
- Strategy owning 500,000 Bitcoin
- most pro-crypto govt in history elected to office.

One thing is for sure, there are no experts in this group, no "quants"...


Summary: Bearish RSP vs GLD: expects the RSP/GLD ratio to keep declining (money illusion theme — equities losing to gold in real terms).

Equal weighted S&P $RSP in American pesos. https://t.co/6oiJIeOiYQ

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Alternatively, the chart of $RSP vs $GLD has been moving from the upper left to the lower right. I expect this to continue. Again, money illusion! https://t.co/RlUaPR0orM


Summary: Stay long gold/GLD as insurance against central bank recklessness; no credit risk, scarce, value-preserving.

Gold is an investment and not a trade. Gold is an insurance policy against the reckless behavior of central bankers. Gold is an asset which is no one's liability. GOLD carries  no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time. Stay long. $GLD https://t.co/ymAiJuXG9n

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“I’ll have what they are having.” https://t.co/qV1i24amJm


Summary: Long BTC: major financial institution flagging USD reserve-status risk to BTC implies 12x upside to gold's $21T market cap.

Let me get this straight.

One of the largest financial institutions in the world is suggesting the US dollar is at risk of losing its reserve status to bitcoin—not gold.

Meanwhile gold is worth $21T and bitcoin is only worth $1.7T.

A 12x is a layup from here.


Summary: Buy META and AR; sell ENPH and OSK per chart analysis.

industry='Internet Content & Information'

Charts from @GuyCerundolo for space tonight. $META https://t.co/Dpu5iPO4dD

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Buy $AR https://t.co/rxWqa9NH4i

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Sell $ENPH https://t.co/B3stzrAI22

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Sell $OSK https://t.co/8EPcCNdC69


industry='Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery'


Only a matter of time before my longstanding target of 10k is met

Summary: Longstanding BTC target of $10k; implies major downside from current levels.

https://t.co/Qr9RWnCebB I tried to warn them but they did not listen. Instead their reply was, "Have fun staying poor." @APompliano @RaoulGMI @LawrenceLepard Financial illiteracy can be hazardous to your net worth. Only a matter of time before my longstanding target of10k is met.


Summary: Bullish Chinese equities / FXI: cheap, under-owned, improving consumer spending, government backing; expects outperformance vs US to continue.

Chinese market handily outpacing the US…I believe this will continue @gave_vincent https://t.co/HD7A7ORf8l

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A lot more potential buying to come. $FXI https://t.co/1KJdUwyVOz

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Now let me see if I got this straight…Cheap market, under owned, consumer spending improving, government wants equities higher. @gave_vincent has nailed the China call. Louis, what else to add to the list? https://t.co/Z33YIBMLg5


Summary: Bearish TSLA below $50 and ARKK below $20 within six months on Cathie Wood's reckless analysis.

History will not be kind to Cathie Wood. She does awful analysis and is completely reckless. TSLA < 50 and $ARKK < 20  within the next six months. https://t.co/r84gm8s1gO

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https://t.co/T5CIN8UYq0

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https://t.co/l1mtaX4SyW

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https://t.co/NxJsYytlWf


Summary: Expects the QQQ/GLD wedge to break to the downside.

Would you have guessed...?🤯

Nasdaq 100 $QQQ has underperformed Gold $GLD over trailing 16 months.

Lower-highs and higher-lows = narrowing wedge

Which way does it break, out or down? History says breakout (upside), financial media woes say breakdown.

$SPX $COMPQ $NDX $SPY https://t.co/bZ44YZqGCd


Summary: Predicts TSLA could decline 80% in 2023.

THE TRUTH ABOUT TESLA: Why Tesla May Decline 80% In 2023 With Motörhead https://t.co/OPHbE3uP1L Also on Apple and Spotify @BradMunchen @StanphylCap @TommyThornton @lisaabramowicz1 @LizAnnSonders @LynAldenContact @leadlagreport  @biancoresearch $TSLA


Summary: Bearish TSLA to $50 on $2 EPS or loss risk, 10% price cuts, still-outrageous 4x revenue multiple, and rising competition.

@GerberKawasaki I could not disagree more. $TSLA will be lucky to earn $2 EPS in 2023. They could easily post a loss. Pricing down at least 10% with units only up 15%. Valuation still outrageous at 4x revenues vs 0.5x for other auto makers. Competition will kill $TSLA. See you at $50.

Tesla valuations. Market PE 17. Tesla EPS 2023 $6 equals $102. S&P expecting 5% eps growth, Tesla 50%. Tesla at a 1 PEG ratio, $300 a share. Tesla at a .5 PEG ratio $150 or 25 PE. Tesla growing at 10x the market eps but trading at market multiple. $TSLA


Summary: Predicts TSLA will suffer the biggest-ever market-cap collapse; ARKK implicitly bearish as major TSLA holder.

@KcrEquity @KailashConcepts @BradMunchen Here is the full 2.5 hour version. CHECKMATE. GAME OVER. THE $TSLA crash will be the biggest ever collapse in market capitalization. This will be truly EPIC! @CathieDWood $ARKK @ValueAnalyst1


Summary: Stay long GLD for gold bulls.

Purrrrfect if you are bullish on gold. Stay long! $GLD https://t.co/uyj46KJA5P


Relentlessly from the lower left to the upper right. A STORE OF VALUE HAS DOUBLED VS A US TREASURY

Summary: GLD has relentlessly outperformed TLT (doubled on total return); author implies continued gold strength vs US Treasuries amid macro deterioration fears.

$GLD vs $TLT. Relentlessly from the lower left to the upper right. Yes, this is a price only chart, but on a total return basis, A STORE OF VALUE HAS DOUBLED VS A US TREASURY. As @gave_vincent would posit, “Is the USA going Turkish?” https://t.co/wuJmuWRfzT


A STORE OF VALUE HAS DOUBLED VS A US TREASURY. Is the USA going Turkish?


Summary: Bearish TSLA; Musk pre-blaming macro signals a huge earnings miss ahead.

Narrative chasing sycophants bereft of any fundamental analysis, tossing up softball questions. Musk setting the stage for a huge earnings miss by blaming everything on macro. $TSLA https://t.co/FnVVQJvsFv


Summary: Bearish NDX/QQQ: market hasn't bottomed, index offers return-free risk not a cash alternative.

The market will not bottom until they stop running these inane QQQ commercials. Investors will learn that $NDX is not a cash alternative but instead offer return free risk IMHO. https://t.co/JRCeaJPChb via @YouTube @biancoresearch @daChartLife @crossbordercap @TommyThornton


Summary: GLD/TLT ratio expected to rise — implies gold outperforming long-duration Treasuries.

$GLD vs $TLT will go higher https://t.co/4ZmFB3kaaE


Summary: Sarcastic mockery of MSTR's non-rated perpetual preferred at 10% yield via retail syndicate; implied bearish on MSTR.

When FIDO is in the syndicate (retail) its rarely a good thing.

Back up the truck for a "Perpetual Strife Preferred stock" with a 10% yield.  Non-rated of course.   But it will have a NASDAQ symbol.  That makes it even better.

Sign me up.  $MSTR https://t.co/nAmh1VXyHo


Summary: Endorses AAPL as a buy on the back of its massive $549B buyback program.

Apple has bought back $549 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 494 companies in the S&P 500.

$AAPL

Charting via @ycharts https://t.co/VwleLHANdF


Summary: Bearish TSLA on collapsing sales, plunging resale values, declining earnings, brand destruction, and gross overvaluation.

@LinkN01 $TSLA is in big trouble. Collapsing sales. Plunging resale values. Declining sales and earnings. Brand destruction. Wildy overvalued.


Summary: Bearish OPEN: the 0.3× vs Zillow 3× valuation comparison is flawed because OPEN books gross sales price vs Zillow's commission-only revenue, making the bull case nonsense.

Vacuous nonsense. Zillow only books the commission as revenue whereas $OPEN books the entire gross sales price. Any of you $OPEN geniuses notice that small detail? @ericjackson you should know better. You are a complete BS artist. You would get thrown out of any responsible firm for saying such crap.

This is why we $OPEN

1) Forbes just called OPEN a potential value play
2) Trades at only 0.3× forward sales vs Zillow ~3×
3) Path to $9–$10 if revenues rebound + multiples normalize
4) Ahead of guidance: $634M vs $612M expected
5) Group One Trading boosted stake by 143%
6) New https://t.co/uZo55o8UWI


Summary: Maintains short position on LULU despite price decline from $400 to $167.

They loved $LULU at $400 (Street's price target was > $500), but hate her at $167?


$OPEN $5B for $600mm in assets. Want to play $OPEN as a meme speculation? Be my guest. But don't embarrass yourself by trying to make a fundamental case.

Summary: Bearish OPEN: $5B valuation vs $600mm in assets makes any fundamental bull case embarrassing; at best a meme speculation.

@APompliano $OPEN $5B for $600mm in assets. Want to play $OPEN as a meme speculation? Be my guest. But don’t embarrass yourself by trying to make a fundamental case. @ericjackson @DavidDTawil @APompliano https://t.co/xAFf6O6LTl

I personally purchased more $OPEN shares this morning.


The $OPEN model has NEVER worked, in good times or bad... margins will be extremely low (2%) and the vast majority of buyers will still want to use an agent

Summary: Bearish Opendoor: model has never worked in any environment, new model will face 2% margins and persistent agent preference.

The $OPEN  model has NEVER worked, in good times or bad, so your statement makes zero sense. I  am also highly doubtful of any “new” model, as margins will be extremely low (2%) and the vast majority of buyers will still want to use an agent. That is how my brain thinks. How about you? Please explain the new model and why you think it will work.

@gnoble79 @rabois @TrueDeke @8bitsteveo @Abe_Blinkoln @ericjackson Pulling data from the worst time to buy a house since we’ve all been alive is funny. Shows how your brain thinks


The $OPEN model has NEVER worked, in good times or bad, so your statement makes zero sense. I am also highly doubtful of any "new" model, as margins will be extremely low (2%) and the vast majority of buyers will still want to use an agent.

Summary: Bearish OPEN: business model has never worked in any environment; low 2% margins and agent-preference undermine any new model thesis.

@kbkTwitty @rabois @TrueDeke @8bitsteveo @Abe_Blinkoln @ericjackson The $OPEN  model has NEVER worked, in good times or bad, so your statement makes zero sense. I  am also highly doubtful of any “new” model, as margins will be extremely low (2%) and the vast majority of buyers will still want to use an agent.

@gnoble79 @rabois @TrueDeke @8bitsteveo @Abe_Blinkoln @ericjackson Well for starters looking at financials for a real estate business during the worst time for real estate in our lifetime isn’t a good start. Second if they partner with palantir they can cash offer every house in the country THE DAY it is listed before anyone else


Summary: Short long-end US Treasuries: fiscal spending +7% YoY, DOGE ineffective, heavy supply coming, and Moody's downgrade confirms unsustainable fiscal path.

Beware the long end of the US bond market.  Austerity is not a thing as US fiscal spending is +7% y/y. DOGE is performative theater. There is also a huge amount of treasuries coming to market (don’t forget that Bessent is continuing the Yellen putz policy of limiting issuance at the long end - What’s the matter Scott, you worried about putting pressure on the long end? Or like a homeowner with a short term ARM, you are just hoping/praying that rates go down?)

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The Moody’s downgrade is behind the curve and only belatedly acknowledging the atrocious, unsustainable state of the US fiscal situation.


$OPEN stock should be $1.50 on a like for like basis. All $OPEN shareholders ignore this warning their peril.

Summary: Short OPEN: on net-revenue EV/Rev basis it trades 4x more expensive than UBER, implying fair value of ~$1.50; balance sheet weak and loss-making.

@ericjackson Are you dishonest or financially illiterate? Which is it?
$UBER is presently selling around 4x EV/Rev. https://t.co/YWyb1jVqe5

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To make an equivalent comparison for $OPEN, one must take the NET revenues (as $UBER does) of $400mm, not the gross revenues of $5B. With an equity market cap of $4.8b  and debt of $2.2b, that equated to an EV/Rev multiple of 17 for $OPEN. https://t.co/po0S9jreuR

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So comparing $OPEN with $UBER on a simple EV/Revs basis, $OPEN is over 4x as expensive. Put another way, $OPEN stock should be $1.50 on a like for like basis. And this of course ignores the fact that $UBER has great balance sheet and is profitable, while $OPEN has a lousy balance sheet and is loss making. Again, are you dishonest or financially illiterate?
All $OPEN shareholders ignore this warning their peril.


Summary: Sarcastically mocks TSLA bulls; bearish on falling revenues, collapsing resale values, and deteriorating estimates.

Uh oh…but @BradMunchen you silly analyst…it’s all about the robots, the FSD, the AI. Pay no attention to the fact that $TSLA  is on 11x falling revenues, that resale values have been are in free fall and that estimates are collapsing. Get with the program! @RealJimChanos @GordonJohnson19


I have previously warned about $UNH. To paraphrase one particularly obnoxious, vulgar FURU, I say to the $UNH bulls, "EVERYBODY'S WRONG."

Summary: Bearish UNH; endorses chart-based warning and tells bulls they are all wrong.

Especially for all those who do zero fundamental work and instead only focus on price, @daChartLife is serving notice on $UNH.

I have previously warned about $UNH. To paraphrase one particularly obnoxious, vulgar FURU, I say to the $UNH bulls, “EVERYBODY’S WRONG.” https://t.co/qs7V6Vs9jD


Summary: Remains bullish on gold/gold miners; expects continued upside from here.

@daChartLife has been correctly bullish for a long while but still believes #gold will move further up and to the right. NUMBER (will continue to) GO UP. $GLD #GDX

Yo, Charts - Shakira was right, “Charts don’t lie.” https://t.co/55dHszqxjs


Summary: Sarcastically mocks $OPEN being ramped to 25x EV/Sales despite $3B cumulative losses; implied bearish.

https://t.co/I8aGqZ9iTa

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DEGEN SPECULATORS RAMP $OPEN TO 25X  EV/SALES. COMPANY HAS CUMULATIVE LOSSES OF $3B. ARMY SAYS WE DONT CARE ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS.
(There, I fixed it)


Summary: Bearish MSTR and BTC treasury companies; predicts mNAV will fall below 1, calling them complete garbage.

Again, $BTC treasury companies are complete garbage. Mnav below 1 coming soon to a theater near you. $MSTR https://t.co/J8tyAhtyvE

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For all you $MSTR fans https://t.co/1E1Z4dyWJc

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And for the real financial illiterates, you are getting what you deserve. $MSTR https://t.co/6L54y48k2t


BTC treasury companies are complete garbage. Mnav below 1 coming soon to a theater near you


Summary: Avoid small caps / IWM; decisive bearish stance.

JUST SAY NO TO SMALL CAPS  $IWM #RTY https://t.co/8QxTDENyBM


Gold is an investment, not a trade. You can't own enough gold.

Summary: Decisively long gold and gold miners; party just starting, gold is a long-term investment not a trade.

The party has only just started. The night is young. Gold is an investment, not a trade. You can’t own enough gold. $GLD #gold $GDX https://t.co/PEw5mIlttZ


The party has only just started. The night is young. You can't own enough gold. $GLD #gold $GDX


Summary: Dismisses bearish PLTR article as lacking serious analysis; implied bullish.

100x revenues! Horrible article bereft of any serious analysis. Thus will not age well. $PLTR https://t.co/9hX2ONWNMB


Summary: Bullish oil, energy, agriculture, and soft commodities on breakout + sticky inflation; bearish bonds; relays BTC long from Dilley.

Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They’re not.
At the same time, everyone’s calling for a bond rally. But not Michael Kramer, not with oil breaking out and inflation still sticky. KRAMER TOLD YOU SO.
The last inflation print gave the crowd a reason to celebrate. Headline inflation moved lower. But food inflation? Still rising.
Commodities are alive.
And this breakout in oil—it was coming,
JUST LIKE VAN DRUNKENMILLER predicted.
The timing is always the hard part, because the market doesn’t care what I want (JUST BUY $BTC LIKE DILLEY TOLD YOU COUNTLESS TIMES)
It never does.
It’s like the ocean. A surfer doesn’t control the wave. They read it, respect it, and ride it. Try to fight it, and you drown.
My grandmother told me this growing up—especially during hard times:
"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, (like the Furus larping on X), the courage to change the things I can (block $TSLA fan boys) and the wisdom to know the difference (between value and price).
I can’t change the market’s direction.
But I can choose how I respond to it.
I can enter the next trade with clarity—not fear (JUST FOLLOW RUSTY)
I know that forcing trades only leads to losses.
Right now, the regime is clear. The market is moving higher. I’m not standing in its way.
And it looks like commodities are finally coming with it. @MichaelMOTTCM @Drunkenmil73821 @rusty__tillery @moneyprinter


Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They're not.


DBA is the primary agriculture commodity ETF


JUST BUY $BTC LIKE DILLEY TOLD YOU COUNTLESS TIMES


Summary: Bearish FRPT: revenue growth collapsing, stock absurdly expensive and destined to underperform.

$FRPT was highlighted at our stock ideas summit last week. Revenue growth is collapsing while the stock remains absurdly expensive and looks destined to remain a real DOG!
You can hear the $FRPT pitch and over 20 other ideas by purchasing the conference replay.

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https://t.co/4bCO5OODOM

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https://t.co/DX9GHhjkwo


Summary: Still holding a long TLT position despite recent losses.

Long and wrong (lately) $TLT https://t.co/goypW5llwS


Summary: Bearish TSLA; calls Cybertruck's ~37-38% one-year depreciation a complete disaster for the brand.

Tesla accepting Cybertruck trade-ins, showing owners a glimpse of depreciation rate.

2 owners shared their trade-in estimates, showing a roughly 37% to 38% depreciation after a year.

is this BAD? $TSLA @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @TommyThornton @PauloMacro @agnostoxxx

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THIS IS A COMPLETE UNMITIGATED DISASTER.   $TSLA

https://t.co/ORj5t5cdO9


Summary: Bearish HOV: margins collapsing, cancellations rising, backlog imploding — explicit sell instruction contradicting parent's buy-the-dip thesis.

@to_trackLs WRONG. Margins collapsing, cancellations up, backlog imploding. SELL. $HOV

$HOV -7.5% at the open.
I’ve bought the dip.

The huge miss was largely a one-off anomaly driven by non-recurring charges - rather than a sign of systematic weakeness.

It’s a speedbump, not a derailing.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see it recover the 7% before too long…


Summary: Strongly bullish gold in response to deficit spending / debt monetization macro thesis.

YOU CAN NOT OWN ENOUGH GOLD
@TaviCosta @DonDurrett

The stock market continues to defy the macro bears; we believe deficit spending is as bullish for stocks as monetization of the debt. $7.1T of government outlays goes directly to US corporations through personal consumption. To balance the budget, the US would have to raise https://t.co/sc3Q8Q242x


Summary: Net speculative length unchanged from when gold was sub-$2000; implied upside as positioning has not caught up to price.

$GLD $GDX https://t.co/iJhvb4mibE

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Amazing that net length is the same as 2 years ago, when #gold was sub $2000 $GLD https://t.co/X6jbOc85VK


Summary: Mocking CAVA's 9x sales valuation as idiotic; implied bearish on stretched multiple.

THE MOST IDIOTIC ARTICLE TITLE TODAY: $CAVA https://t.co/k8sUpaKbQr

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IS FALAFEL CRUNCH WORTH 9X SALES? https://t.co/qVt45828ww

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SEEMS ABOUT RIGHT;) https://t.co/kQQGcFV0Q5


Summary: Short TSLA: forecasts loss-making by year-end, no new models, Cybertruck bust, shrinking share, price cuts, gone EV credits, collapsing used prices, no moat.

$TSLA will be loss making by the end of this year. They have no new models this year or next. The Cybertruck may be the biggest new model bust in the history of the auto industry. They are losing market share. They are cutting prices. EV credits are gone. They are loss making without EV credits. Used $TSLA prices are collapsing. They have no moat. I can keep going. @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19

@gnoble79 @thedave2006 Possible but I doubt it, highly unlikely.


Summary: Bearish OPEN: calls $82 PT implying $60B mkt cap delusional given revenues tracking at $5B, down from $15B peak.

Total clown show. @ericjackson is guilty of analytical malpractice with his $OPEN cheerleading. His price target of $82 would imply a market of $60b. Revenues are tracking at $5b, down from a peak of $15b. Show me your math Eric! Have you no shame? Or brains? @APompliano how about your calculations? I challenge both of you to a debate.

$open best guys out there!

@ericjackson @rabois @APompliano https://t.co/VHX8S3QrwD


the MNAV will continue to decline. I ultimately expect the MNAV to fall below 1. The $MSTR bulls still don't get the joke.

Summary: Bearish MSTR: expects mNAV to keep falling below 1, dismissing bulls.

Looking at theory, the MNAV will continue to decline. I ultimately expect the MNAV to fall below 1. The $MSTR bulls still don’t get the joke.  $BTC

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https://t.co/POzSwkMyo4


Summary: Emphatic buy call on Bitcoin as the top opportunity in today's chaotic market, with potential to double or triple money.

This has been a strange year for the stock market...
And it's about to get even stranger.
JUST WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO IRAN.
On March 25, I announced, "A crash of epic proportions is coming." AND I WAS RIGHT.
9 trillion was wiped off the stock market by the tariff crash just 13 days later, far worse than I'd anticipated (BUT MY MAN KRAMER NAILED IT BECAUSE HE IS ALWAYS BEARISH).
The markets went on to recover all the losses, JUST LIKE I PREDICTED.
But more than half of Americans are still bearish today. DEGENS, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?
If you're scared or confused by all this, you're not alone. In my 50 years on Wall Street, I've rarely seen such peculiar conditions.
Along with such an extraordinary opportunity to make money right now.
Let Captain Obvious show you how.
In short, today's chaotic market has opened the most lucrative new investment vehicle I've seen in my career.
I have discovered a LITTKE KNOWN, OVERLOOKED opportunity, the secret to unlocking unfathomable profits… BUY BITCOIN! HOW MANY TIMES DOES DILLEY HAVE TO TELL YOU?
But if you know what's coming next to the market, it could double or triple your money on multiple occasions this Y̶e̶a̶r̶ month.
Just follow @MichaelMOTTCM and @TommyThornton for “HOW TO MAKE MONEY IN CONFUSING MARKETS.”

Regards,
Captain Obvious

@moneyprinter @TommyThornton @MichaelMOTTCM

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https://t.co/8rg2jl6Ab8


Summary: Bearish MSTR; implies shareholders will suffer a painful lesson.

That this question is even asked and has 474k impressions is truly pathetic. $MSTR shareholders are going to get an education!!! https://t.co/93MNf6c5mo

MSTR hit an all-time high of $543 on November 20, 2024 when BTC was at $94,300.

That was almost one year ago.

At the time MSTR owned approximately 331,200 BTC. They have since acquired an additional 305,305 BTC and now hold 636,505 BTC total.

That's over 3% of all the bitcoin https://t.co/LvxWpsy8A6


Summary: Long gold; treats it as an investment, expects much higher prices despite near-term pullbacks.

Again, gold is an investment, not a trade. The crowd has only recently got the memo. No doubt pullbacks will occur, but #gold is heading much higher INHO. $GLD https://t.co/idBCcyMJQi


Summary: Continues to favor gold over long-duration Treasuries; GLD/TLT ratio up 19% and trend seen persisting.

$GLD vs $TLT has risen 19% since this post. The song remains the same. Real money vs American pesos. https://t.co/bmAnMLLtZ4

$GLD vs $TLT. Relentlessly from the lower left to the upper right. Yes, this is a price only chart, but on a total return basis, A STORE OF VALUE HAS DOUBLED VS A US TREASURY. As @gave_vincent would posit, “Is the USA going Turkish?” https://t.co/wuJmuWRfzT


$GLD vs $TLT has risen 19% since this post. The song remains the same. Real money vs American pesos.


Summary: Bullish on gold; author says you can't own enough of it.

Maf is hard. You can’t own enough gold! https://t.co/PECQ95rA5b


Summary: Harbor Energy could double from current levels per presenter at Best Ideas Forum.

Robert Mullin last week presented Harbor Energy at our Best Ideas Forum. Today this happened: https://t.co/iD0hdmFrfZ

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The stock is up 11% today in response to the news. @MRAfunds PLEASE CALL
YOUR OFFICE. https://t.co/qEuPmCgVgb

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To learn why Harbor Energy could double, and hear seven hours of actionable best ideas from 15 other elite investors, please go to our website  to purchase the conference replay.
YOU DON’T GET WHAT YOU DON’T PAY FOR.


Summary: Maintains short on LULU following weak Americas comps, guidance cuts, and valuation downside to $128–154.

$LULU What a bomb! Americas comparable sales DOWN -4% (!). Slashes revenue and EPS guidance.

Looks like women who want 100% genuine petroleum product yoga pants now choose Vuori and Alo instead.

At 12x new $12.8 EPS guide this is a $154 stock. At 10x, it’s $128. Yikes! 😦 https://t.co/cahV9SJp0G


Summary: Rhetorically bullish on gold as rates are pushed lower by policy action.

@Seawolfcap @m3_melody Agreed. @crossbordercap has been consistently calling for this. Gee, I wonder what gold will do in that scenario? Asking for a friend….

@gnoble79 @m3_melody This is one of the many reasons they want and need rates down. We just haven't seen them pull out all the stops to try to get rates lower. It's coming.


You can't own enough gold and gold miners. This is an investment, not a trade.

Summary: Long gold and gold miners as a long-term investment, not a trade; sustained conviction held all year.

The song remains the same. You can’t own enough gold and gold miners. This is an investment, not a trade. I have been saying this all year.  @AAGresearch https://t.co/hKHAxnweZj

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@TaviCosta https://t.co/Rz77boqEzZ

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@DonDurrett https://t.co/tjWkpq39Rl


$UNH is a train wreck and it is risky to sell? You can't make this up

Summary: Bearish UNH (train wreck, mocking the 'risky to sell' framing) and PLTR (expensive valuation).

Recent article titles of note:

$UNH is a train wreck and it is risky to sell? You can’t make this up https://t.co/IDMMy4yBoO

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You think this fellow understands that trying to catch a falling knife is usually not a good idea? https://t.co/q5RdWNCbDe

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Many words can be used to describe $PLTR, but cheap is not one of them! https://t.co/fCSj8L0HUp


Many words can be used to describe $PLTR, but cheap is not one of them!


Summary: Author shares Reuters/OMFIF survey showing central banks diversifying away from USD into gold, euro (short-term) and yuan (long-term).

The song remains the same https://t.co/WxDsI8fAR0

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Exclusive: Central banks eye gold, euro and yuan as dollar dominance wanes | Reuters[https://t.co/s8ylHWoJNv]
OMFIF did a survey of 75 central banks -- carried out between March and May – which reportedly shows that global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China's yuan

￼
Central banks eye gold, euro and yuan as dollar dominance wanes - Reuters News
￼  24 Jun 2025 01:55:03 PM
•Gold seen as biggest winner from dollar diversification
•Euro seen top currency to benefit in short term - OMFIF survey
•Yuan favoured by central bankers over a longer time frame
•Reuters' sources see euro recovering some lost ground quickly
•Euro share of reserves likely to rise in next few years - Rogoff
Adds chart, with no change to text
LONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - The custodians of trillions of dollars of global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China's yuan as the splintering of world trade and geopolitical upheaval spark a rethink of financial flows.
According to a report [https://t.co/oACqItxODf] by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) due to be published later on Tuesday, one in three central banks managing a combined $5 trillion plan to increase exposure to gold over the next one-to-two years after stripping out those planning to decrease, the highest in at least five years.
The survey of 75 central banks -- carried out between March and May -- gives a first snapshot of the repercussions of U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 Liberation Day tariffs[https://t.co/1l8hSFqFNb] that sparked market turmoil and a slide in the safe-haven dollar and U.S. Treasuries.
Gold, which central banks have already been adding at a record pace [https://t.co/1l8hSFqFNb], was seen benefiting even further longer term, with a net 40% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings over the next decade.
"After years of record-high central bank gold purchases, reserve managers are doubling down on the precious metal," OMFIF said.
The dollar, the most popular currency in last year's survey, fell to seventh place this year, OMFIF said, with 70% of those surveyed saying the U.S. political environment was discouraging them from investing in the dollar -- more than twice the share a year ago.
In currencies, the euro and yuan stand to benefit the most from a diversification away from the dollar.
A net 16% of central banks surveyed by OMFIF said they plan to increase euro holdings over the next 12 to 24 months, making it the most in-demand currency, up from 7% a year ago, followed by the yuan.
But over the next decade, the yuan is more favoured, with a net 30% of central banks expecting to increase holdings and its share of global reserves seen tripling to 6%.
click on the news link for further details….
Exclusive: Central banks eye gold, euro and yuan as dollar dominance wanes | Reuters [https://t.co/s8ylHWoJNv]


All cheerleading and hand waving, bereft of any substance. Don't confuse meme stock buyers with fundamentals and valuation.

Summary: Bearish OPEN: dismisses bullish thesis as meme-driven hype with no fundamental/valuation support.

$OPEN All cheerleading and hand waving, bereft of any substance. Don’t confuse meme stock buyers with fundamentals and valuation.@ericjackson https://t.co/iHFswkcmv0

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https://t.co/I8SSF9fEfp


Summary: RSP/GLD ratio continues lower; bearish equities vs gold — short RSP, long GLD.

$RSP vs $GLD post has collapsed 27% since the 2/4/25 post. The song remains the same. “We got a situation here.” @LukeGromen @cvpayne @DougKass @biancoresearch @TommyThornton @lisaabramowicz1 @MariaBartiromo https://t.co/sn8bQsCSES

Alternatively, the chart of $RSP vs $GLD has been moving from the upper left to the lower right. I expect this to continue. Again, money illusion! https://t.co/RlUaPR0orM


$OPEN stock should be $1.50 on a like for like basis. And this of course ignores the fact that $UBER has great balance sheet and is profitable, while $OPEN has a lousy balance sheet and is loss making. All $OPEN shareholders ignore this warning their peril.

Summary: Short OPEN: on EV/Rev vs UBER, implies 4x overvaluation with fair value ~$1.50; weak balance sheet and loss-making compound the bear case.

So comparing $OPEN with $UBER on a simple EV/Revs basis, $OPEN is over 4x as expensive. Put another way, $OPEN stock should be $1.50 on a like for like basis. And this of course ignores the fact that $UBER has great balance sheet and is profitable, while $OPEN has a lousy balance sheet and is loss making. Again @ericjackson are you dishonest or financially illiterate?
All $OPEN shareholders ignore this warning their peril.


THIS IS A TRULY OUTSTANDING INTERVIEW. ACTIONABLE IDEAS. … Why One Analyst Sees a Massive Tesla Crash Ahead

Summary: Author endorses Gordon Johnson's bearish TSLA thesis as actionable, implying a crash ahead.

THIS IS A TRULY OUTSTANDING INTERVIEW. ACTIONABLE IDEAS.
@GordonJohnson19 https://t.co/ez1LpRjoUu

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Why One Analyst Sees a Massive Tesla Crash Ahead - Gordon Johnson Interview
https://t.co/NQ1hjwOcRx   $TSLA $TAN


Summary: Long gold (GLD); avoid bonds (TLT).

Continue to be long #gold and avoid bonds. $GLD $TLT https://t.co/P32VvCUbmF


Summary: Long gold (GLD); avoid bonds (TLT).


Does this imply some issues with Nvidia's massive accounts receivable balance? I think it's on the order of $19 billion. After all those A/R's would be related to "older generation products" would they not. Buckle up buttercup.

Summary: Bearish NVDA: SMCI weakness raises questions about NVDA's ~$19B accounts receivable tied to older-gen products.

Inventory reserves for older generation products.  I thought there was insatiable demand.

Does this imply some issues with Nvidia's massive accounts receivable balance? I think it's on the order of $19 billion.  After all those A/R's would be related to "older generation products" would they not.
Techie guys never seem to focus on balance sheet issues for some reason.  It's always about sales and margins until its not.

Buckle up buttercup. Don't worry "quantum computing" is right around the corner.
$NVDA H/t DF

BREAKING: Super Micro Computer stock, $SMCI, falls nearly -20% after issuing weak preliminary financials. https://t.co/xGL75tCFmD


Summary: Bearish OPEN: house-flipping business model is broken; stock will keep declining.

@domino3404 Won’t matter. Business model of flipping houses does not work. This turd $OPEN is a sinker, not a floater.


Summary: Bearish OPEN: 22x EV/Sales is unjustifiable for a low-margin, highly competitive business.

@ohginvesting @ericjackson 22x EV/sales for a low margin business in a super competitive industry. There is no way that the numbers work. None.

This is what retail investors believed could happen with the right leadership.

There is a huge gap in the real estate market that is costly and inefficient. I spent a considerable amount of time researching $OPEN after reading through @ericjackson’s tweets months ago. Any


Summary: Gold/GLD/GDX are long-term investments; corrections possible but secular bull thesis intact.

The crowd has just gotten the memo.
Again, corrections can and will happen. However, #gold continues to be an investment, not a trade. $GLD $GDX https://t.co/Wo3UpN6SKL


Summary: Elimination of ZEV regulatory credits is existential for Tesla; decisive bearish call.

$TSLA will not survive this. Game over. @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @TommyThornton

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits.

Under the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, https://t.co/9LR4YAE0xL


Totally vacuous, bereft of any serious analysis of valuation. "I am doubling down on the stock upgrade, raising my rating to "Strong Buy." ARGGHHH

Summary: Mocking a vacuous Strong Buy upgrade on PLTR; implied bearish on valuation grounds.

The leading candidate for ridiculous article of the day. Totally vacuous, bereft of any serious analysis of valuation. “I am doubling down on the stock upgrade, raising my rating to "Strong Buy." ARGGHHH. $PLTR https://t.co/IMYEjqnPd7


Summary: Bearish TSLA: poor cash flow, falling revenues, CEO hype; trades at unjustified 9x multiple for a declining car company.

$TSLA I have no idea what number they will fabricate for EPS after the close. I also have no idea what fairy tales they will make up about robots and FSD. I also have no idea what the stock will do in reaction. What I am certain of is that cash flow will be poor and the CEO will no doubt try to pump the stock with dreams. $TSLA, despite what others may say, is a car company selling on 9x falling revenues. Caveat Emptor. $TSLA @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @RealJimChanos


$5B for $600mm in assets. Want to play $OPEN as a meme speculation? Be my guest. But don't embarrass yourself by trying to make a fundamental case.

Summary: Bearish OPEN: $5B valuation for $600mm in assets is indefensible fundamentally; any bull case is pure meme speculation.

$OPEN $5B for $600mm in assets. Want to play $OPEN as a meme speculation? Be my guest. But don’t embarrass yourself by trying to make a fundamental case. @ericjackson @DavidDTawil https://t.co/BWy7D4uBvS


Broken company with bad model that can't be fixed. The numbers just don't work.

Summary: Bearish Opendoor: fundamentally broken model with unfixable unit economics.

@RandianCapital Broken company with bad model that can’t be fixed. The numbers just don’t work.

@gnoble79 The Wall Street Journal disagrees:

Many online commenters zeroed in on Wheeler’s decision to shed Opendoor shares for less than $1 as part of an insider-selling plan, and grumbled this was evidence she didn’t believe in the company’s future.

By mid-August, Opendoor’s board


Summary: Dismisses April bears who called the precious-metals bull over; implicitly endorses continued bull trend in gold, silver, and miners.

In April many of the loudest talking heads declared that the bull market in precious metals was over. Where are they now? You know who I am talking about. Hint: Few. Another hint: Danish is not good for you. $GLD $SLV $GDX #gold #silver https://t.co/YuGPcbhMiE

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@DonDurrett and @TaviCosta have been on fire!!! https://t.co/NycUPUElfl

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https://t.co/VoVMEmK1PC


GOLD: Own It, Don't Trade It – Tune Out the Noise!

Summary: Author sarcastically replaces Apple with Gold in Cramer's 'own it' mantra — bullish gold, implicitly bearish Apple.

GLD is the gold ETF; direct pass-through

A̷p̷p̷l̷e̷  GOLD: Own   It, Don’t Trade It – Tune Out the Noise! – Jim Cramer

There, I fixed it.

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Gold vs Apple https://t.co/LI894PG3IE


Summary: Stay defensive on equities/retail favorites; bearish USD; long gold on durable bullish thesis despite short-term correction.

I am told I should post a “thread” to get more views. So here goes my lame attempt at shameless engagement farming:

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Score this low sentiment reading for the bulls https://t.co/bCcg7XWbBN

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However this can still go lower https://t.co/EJIKqmQkSb

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Watch what they do, not what they say. https://t.co/MC9AEI02UT

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The retail crowd is still in over their skis. Run, don’t walk, as fast as possible away from retail favorites. https://t.co/K6y6V6PDhP

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Noteworthy, money going home.
$ to go lower. https://t.co/jHjsXKJO3n

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Positioning can go a lot lower (potential negative) https://t.co/nEABZagdp8

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It is the speed, not the size of the decline that is noteworthy. https://t.co/fGL6tHuXwh

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No real financial stress YET https://t.co/BD6onhRsBn

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Net, net. I have been cautious for months and continue to advise investors to stay defensive until further notice. UNCERTAINTY is the operative word. While gold may continue to correct in the ST, ultimately I believe it will go MUCH higher. $GLD #gold $SPY $QQQ


I have been cautious for months and continue to advise investors to stay defensive until further notice


Summary: Bearish TSLA: used-car price crash is disastrous for new sales, compounding existing headwinds.

What Charlie meant to say is that the price of a used Tesla is crashing. The value of a $TSLA trade is in free fall. That is DISASTROUS for new $TSLA sales (as if the company did not already have enough problems). There, I fixed it. @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @RealJimChanos @Seawolfcap @AlderLaneEggs @cvpayne @lisaabramowicz1 @DianeKingHall @ScottWapnerCNBC

Buying a Tesla is becoming more and more affordable with each passing month. The average price of a used Tesla has moved down to a record low of $28,997. That's 57% below the average price from July 2022. $TSLA

https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih https://t.co/dYvLkXhPzL


Summary: Bullish gold/GLD; implies continued upward trend.

You know what to do…the song remains the same. #gold $gld https://t.co/iu7e1oZtk1

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https://t.co/pNsdMAlUPG

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https://t.co/FXBTaJ5O7a


The crowd only just now got the memo. Early days.

Summary: Bullish GDX; capital inflows just starting, early innings of a larger move into gold miners.

This is the first significant capital inflow into the $GDX in a long time. It "only" took the strongest August ever for the Gold Miners ETF GDX 😃 https://t.co/sw8Abg3EzX


Summary: Bullish gold as the last safe haven standing; reinforces prior warning.

I tried to warn you. Gold will be last man standing. Always better to “pick on a cripple.” $gld #GOLD @davevermilion @MichaelMOTTCM


$ABTC IS TOTAL GARBAGE. Anyone who owns this POS deserves to lose all their money. $6.5b for $270mm in $BTC and a lousy mining business? What is the bull case?

Summary: Bearish ABTC: $6.5B valuation vs $270M BTC holdings and weak mining business; no bull case.

$ABTC IS TOTAL GARBAGE.
Anyone who owns this POS deserves
to lose all their money. https://t.co/S0pVBt66cb

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$6.5b for $270mm in $BTC and a lousy mining business? What is the bull case? $ABTC https://t.co/jGHqim0AsK


$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history... Fair value is perhaps $50. The emperor is wearing no clothes. Look out below.

Summary: Short TSLA: calls it biggest bubble in history, fair value $50, expects share price to crater on failed robotaxi launch, collapsing earnings, and declining auto sales.

$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history with a market cap of $1.6T. Never before has a single stock been so overpriced at such a scale.

$TSLA auto sales are in free fall
and will decline double digits in 2026.
Next year will be the third consecutive year of declining unit sales.

There will be no robotaxis for many years as approval takes years and $TSLA has not even filed the necessary applications. $TSLA just admitted to the California DMV,
“The currently enabled Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous.”

They will sell zero robots in 2026.
The competition is way ahead.

The share price is sustained only by the lies of @elonmusk

Earnings estimates continue to collapse. Estimates for 2025 have
gone from $8 to 1.65 yet the share price has more than doubled from the April 2025 lows. I expect the share price to ultimately converge with the decline in profits.

Pent up selling (for tax purposes), the failure to launch paid robotaxis and the announcement of horrendous 4q deliveries may well cause the stock to crater early in the new year.

Fair value is perhaps $50.
The emperor is wearing no clothes. Look out below.

@GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @TommyThornton @MichaelMOTTCM @zerohedge @doomerzoomer @unusual_whales @maggielake @adamtaggart @JulianMI2 @JackFarley96 @DarioCpx

This isn’t widely understood, & if accurate, matters. Musk said $TSLA would have 500 robotaxis operating in Austin by yr-end. If the reality is 3 to 5 vehicles, that’s not a rounding error - it’s a categorical failure. Since roughly June, the stock has doubled, fueled in large


Summary: Sell OPEN: revenue declining 35% YoY, loss-making until 2027, 40x revenues valuation, poor unit economics, challenged housing market.

Classic example of a low bar.

A lame attempt to spin another upcoming loss making quarter.

What a disaster.
$OPEN 4q 2024 gross revenues were $1.1B. If they continue at this pace their revenue “beat” would constitute a decline of 35% from last year.

Recall that $OPEN is guiding to losses until 2027.

$OPEN is valued at 40x 4q revenues/gross profits.

KNOW WHAT YOU OWN, as Peter Lynch would always say.

Look at the record - $OPEN has lost money EVERY YEAR since inception.

Understand $OPEN unit economics - low margin, asset heavy, does not scale.

The outlook for housing
remains very challenged owing to poor levels of affordability.

Industry is extremely competitive.

Look at the valuation - 20/40x revenues (same as gross margin).

$OPEN remains a house flipper, regardless of how management tries to spin it.

Don’t confuse a speculative lottery ticket/meme stock for a serious investment.

$OPEN is a SELL

@nejatian @ericjackson @rabois @m3_melody @dayetweets @APompliano @UnicusResearch

$OPEN now $59.8m ahead of revenue guidance QTD vs expected.

Current as of today: $363.5m

Expected this time in the QTR: $303.7m

592 homes to sell at current avg sale price of $377k

44 days left to go. https://t.co/kW3kDabl7s


Summary: Dismisses the warrant distribution as a non-event; issues a sell instruction on Opendoor.

$OPEN Opendoor - Reminder: WARRANTS Record date is tomorrow 11/18 (shares have to be settled T+1)

Warrants:
For every 30 shares, you get 3 warrants, one of each of the following (like the acronym? KAZ):
Series K $9 - $OPENW
Series A $13 - $OPENL
Series Z $17 - $OPENZ https://t.co/i6TNte1QPY


I doubled my position again this morning at a price of $481. My average cost is now $473. The coming crash in $TSLA will produce the largest destruction of market capitalization in history IMHO.

Summary: Short TSLA, doubled position at $481 (avg $473); bears fundamental overvaluation at 16x rev / 300x earnings with collapsing auto sales and robotaxi revenues years away.

The universal reply, “ $TSLA is not a car company”  to my negative $TSLA post yesterday has emboldened my confidence in the bear case.

Fact: 86% of sales are from autos. Significant revenues (if any) from robotaxis and robots are YEARS away. The $TSLA bulls are chasing narrative instead of following fundamentals.

I doubled my position again this morning at a price of $481. My average cost is now $473.

$1.6T market cap, 16x revenues, $50 SOTP, 300x earnings for an auto company with collapsing sales and earnings.

The potential IPO of Waymo implies a valuation of a mere $30 per share for robotaxis.

The coming crash in $TSLA will produce the largest destruction of market capitalization in history IMHO.

The coming collapse will be epic.

@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19

@abetterfuture42 Doubled my $TSLA short yesterday at $485. Average is now $465. https://t.co/JY0wlnFyAI


Summary: Bearish OPEN: share price already prices in massive profitability improvement, running well ahead of fundamentals.

@VolaarRide @APompliano @ericjackson @saylor @elonmusk @nikolatrevor I am well aware. The current share price already discounts a massive improvement in profitability to the extent that it is well ahead of the fundamentals.

@gnoble79 @APompliano @ericjackson @saylor @elonmusk @nikolatrevor George, Kaz stopped taking balance sheet risk by owning tons of houses.

$OPEN shifted to a software-driven model making money from fees and commissions by helping transactions happen, not by speculating on home prices.


$TSLA IS THE BIGGEST BUBBLE IN STOCK MARKET HISTORY. The losses will be epic.

Summary: Calls TSLA the biggest stock market bubble ever; epic losses ahead.

Tesla realistically has zero path to profitability and likely to see $8-$10 billion dollar a year losses going forward. That is a very optimistic estimate if Tesla $TSLA can maintain its current marketshare in Europe and China. The more likely scenario is Tesla is priced out in


Summary: Bearish TSLA: expects Q4 loss, third consecutive year of delivery declines in 2026, overvalued at 14x revenue / 200x earnings for a non-growth company.

THIS. $TSLA will probably lose money in 4q. Deliveries will decline again for the third consecutive year in 2026. Not exactly what you call a growth company. 14x revenues and 200x earnings for a publicly traded science experiment. Oh but what about the make believe FSD and the robots! @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @RealJimChanos @elonmusk

"BYD's October vehicle sales down 12% from year earlier"

If BYD is down that much YoY, I can't image how bad $TSLA did globally with all of its stale products.

https://t.co/Vm0Y7ZY52N


Summary: Still bearish ABTC; views it as overpriced despite 80% crash since initial short flag.

@stackasaurus11 @EricTrump @ABTC $ABTC has crashed 80% since I flagged as a short on 9/12 and is still overpriced IMHO. https://t.co/BW64RJ7Pi5


Consensus 2025 EPS estimates have collapsed from over $8 to under $2 in the last three years. The share price has nevertheless levitated. Divergence anyone? Mind the gap.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: EPS estimates collapsed ~75% while share price levitated — warns of a valuation gap that should close to the downside.

Consensus 2025 EPS estimates (white line) for $TSLA have collapsed from over $8 to under $2 in the last three years. The share price (blue line)    has nevertheless levitated. Divergence anyone? Mind the gap. https://t.co/zunnbKQaOr


The bottom is about to fall out of $OPEN. And if it doesn't, SELL. EITHER way, sell it up or down. LOOK OUT BELOW!

Summary: Strongly bearish OPEN: sell into any pop or decline; 19x revenue, 86-cent book value make it uninvestable.

The bottom is about to fall out of  $OPEN .
It is doubtful that anything of substance will be announced today that can fix this broken company.
If the stock pops on some  hype - SELL.
And if it doesn’t, SELL.
EITHER way, sell it up or down.
Investors are just hanging on, hoping for a Hail Mary.
And once the chart breaks, look out below.
At 19x revenues (same as gross profits for $OPEN)
and with a book value of only 86 cents per share,
LOOK OUT BELOW! @ericjackson @m3_melody @dayetweets @Realtor_Stocks @iv2171 @UnicusResearch @realsteveeisman @Seawolfcap


Paying 22x net revenues for a 3% margin business (that is if they are lucky and everything goes right one can't even justify the present $9 stock price) - the numbers do not make sense. You will need more than hand waving, lies, insults, Drake and analytical malpractice to get to $82.

Summary: Bearish Opendoor: 22x revenue for a 3% margin business is unjustifiable; $9 price can't be justified let alone $82 target.

Eric, tell us more about that new $OPEN  business model and how they are going to generate the margins you foresee. We are all waiting. They are in a fiercely competitive, low margin business. Oh yes, and please note my earlier post where I displayed your comparison of $OPEN to $UBER. Another lie from you! Paying 22x net revenues for a 3% margin business (that is if they are lucky and everything goes right one can’t even justify the present $9 stock price) - the numbers do not make sense. You will need more than hand waving, lies, insults, Drake and analytical malpractice to get to $82. ericjackson @Realtor_Stocks @UnicusResearch @m3_melody


Run, don't walk as fast as possible from $OPEN . What a load of garbage. Total clown show.

Summary: Decisive avoid/sell call on OPEN; author calls it garbage and a clown show, mocking $315 price target.

Run, don’t walk as fast as possible from $OPEN . What a load of garbage.
Total clown show. Tell me more about that 82, no wait, $315 price target @ericjackson https://t.co/42U9D1q07m

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https://t.co/c0wssVhqlY

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READ THIS. $OPEN

https://t.co/Q9JR81syh4


Summary: Bearish TSLA: $9 cumulative lifetime profit, collapsing sales/earnings, $1.4T valuation built on unfulfilled promises of robotaxis/AI/robots.

$TSLA has earned $9 of cumulative profits since inception. NINE DOLLARS!!!

LET THAT SINK IN.

So much for the $TSLA record.
As to the future, consider  that sales and earnings are collapsing.
14x revenues and $1.4T supported only by lies/promises of robotaxis, AI and robots.

From the same guy @elonmusk who LIED  about Tesla Cybertrucks , Tesla Semis, The Boring Company and Neuralink.

What could possibly go wrong?

Serious investors discuss fundamentals. Others instead focus on the stock price.
I will respond to the former, and block the ladder.

@GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen

$TSLA bulls say it doesn’t matter that TSLA Oct global volumes are down -30-35% YoY, since the business is transitioning to unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots. That’s a fool’s narrative with 70%+ TSLA profits from EVs.

With EVs, TSLA had first mover advantage and clearly https://t.co/tSJTv4LC18


Summary: Bearish TSLA: robotaxi/Optimus unproven, collapsing sales/earnings, 16x revenue and 300x earnings multiples unjustified.

@Chadwhitlock I cite facts. You cling to narratives.

Wake me up when $TSLA starts generating any money from robotaxis and Optimus. Until then, $TSLA is just an ex growth auto company facing collapsing sales and earnings. 16x revenues and 300x collapsing earnings; sounds about right.

@gnoble79 Ah yes, the classic “Tesla is only a car company” argument — usually delivered right before someone proudly announces they doubled down at $481 while calling everyone else delusional.

Let’s clear a few things up.

First, saying “86% of sales are autos” as if that’s some kind of


Summary: Bearish OPEN: sector-relative valuation implies ~$1.50 price target; skeptical the company can be fixed given persistent losses.

@BradTranMD On a pure valuation basis vs the sector, $OPEN should be around $1.50. Color me skeptical about trying to fix a company that has lost money ever single year, good times and bad.

@gnoble79 Appreciate the feedback George what about innovations, AI pricing of homes, increasing unit economics , overhead reductions, growth hacking, Kaz new CEO, return to office for employees, Rabois, and Wu coming back.


Summary: Bearish OPEN: wildly overpriced in a competitive, low-margin industry.

@ChartingU Well said. I also believe that $OPEN is a wildly overpriced stock  in a very competitive, low margin industry. That can all be true at the same time.

@gnoble79 Unfortunately or not, it's not about a company's fundamentals or long term success for these meme stocks. I'm old school like you but we must learn to accept the recent 'democratization of retail traders' phenomenon whose understanding and utilization of dealer exposure combined


On a like for like basis $OPEN would be $2.50!!!!! Using $COMP as a comparison suggests $1.50. And don't forget book value, which is a mere 86 cents per share.

Summary: Short OPEN: parent's $43-47 P/S target is malpractice; apples-to-apples vs Zillow/Compass implies $1.50-$2.50, book value only 86 cents.

This is analytical malpractice of the worst kind. $OPEN counts the total value of the house as revenues whereas Zillow only counts the commission. On a like for like basis $OPEN would be $2.50!!!!! Using $COMP as a comparison suggests $1.50. And don’t forget book value, which is a mere 86 cents per share. @dayetweets @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @1TradingDee @Seawolfcap @APompliano @nejatian

Based on pure P/S vs Zillow or sector, $OPEN should be a $43 - $47 stock.

✅someone pls tell me what am I missing here, sorry I only have a medical degree

✅$OPEN has some catching up to do.

@OpendoorNews @Openroar @Opendoor @ericjackson
@rabois @RandianCapital @OpendoorKim https://t.co/Gn8fKqnGuY


Add this to the total garbage club. Only financial illiterates would own these stocks.

Summary: Author labels OKLO and OPEN 'total garbage,' urging avoidance of both as uninvestable.

Add this to the total garbage club.
$OPEN was the first inductee.
$OKLO is the second member.
Only financial illiterates would own these stocks.

Seeing the +1,500% stock price appreciation of a pre-revenue company named $OKLO, I decided to do a quick due diligence.

1. Went to finviz to see if insiders are selling. They are.
2. Caroline Cochran (now married DeWitte) caught my eye in the list of insiders selling as she was https://t.co/rinvPtfNqh


$OPEN was the first inductee. Only financial illiterates would own these stocks.


Summary: Decisive avoid/sell verdict on OPEN; implies owning it reflects financial naivety.

Anyone who listens to this and still owns $OPEN needs to take an introductory finance class. @ericjackson

@ericjackson if you were to summarize how CVNA makes money how would you do that?  *answered*
do they hold the loans on their balance sheet or do they securitize it? *answered*
OPEN doesn't do that, do u see it moving toward that? *not answered*
asked about servicing mortgages & securitizing https://t.co/MxRqAGfguF


Summary: Sell OPEN: 25x revenue valuation with no profits guided until 2027 makes fundamentals untenable.

Maybe the fundamentals are starting to matter again!
$OPEN is valued at 25x revenues (same as gross profits) and is guiding to no profits until 2027.
So much for the warrant distraction.
SELL https://t.co/GdNVwzMWdS

WOW! I just woke up to see $OPEN. What's going on?
@nejatian
@ericjackson
@8bitsteveo
@rabois
@Opendoor_God
Anyone???


Summary: Disagrees with $37 PT upgrade; takes the bearish side on OPEN.

I spent the day working on my OPEN model and after meaningful consideration, I am updating my price target from $25 to $37. I am increasing my revenue and EBITDA forecast by 32.5% and 45% respectively. Lower rates and tokenization optionality have shifted the curve significantly.


Summary: Bearish OKLO; implies shareholders will be punished — a decisive negative verdict on the stock.

Who says they don’t ring a bell?
Shareholders will get what they deserve. $OKLO

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$OKLO https://t.co/JQCDCemu9e


Summary: Bearish TSLA: expects collapse as losses start this quarter; urges sell on poor fundamentals/valuation.

So many financially illiterate $TSLA shareholders. They keep drinking the koolaid from @elonmusk
They are clueless with respect to fundamentals and valuation. $TSLA will collapse as the losses start this quarter. SELL.

i am more confident than ever that $tsla stock is going to implode . Never a stock has been  so disconnected from business results and only tied to false promises based on zero fundementals. $tsla


Summary: Short OPEN: overvalued at 20x sales/9x book, asset-heavy unprofitable business; any pop from tonight's meeting will fade as retail momentum drains.

No doubt that @nejatian will pull out all the stops to pump $OPEN at the meeting tonight. I expect his proclamations to be “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”Tokenization of real estate, the $HOOD relationship, we are an aggressive software company, blah blah blah.

20x sales (in economic terms the same as gross profits for $OPEN), 9x book value (86 cents), an asset heavy business that has never made money and can’t scale - good luck justifying the current share price, let alone $83!

I expect any short term pop in the share price to be short lived as the hype fades. Retail investors will bail as the momentum continues to drain out of the share price.


Summary: Bearish ABTC (still going lower after -50%) and HUT dragged down with it.

$ABTC down almost 50% since my post. This POS will still go lower.
$HUT along for the ride. @ericjackson @DavidDTawil


Summary: Stay short RGTI; expects price to fall to single digits from ~$22.

For those keeping score at home,
$RGTI was 48 on 10/16, now $22.38

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Price is still not truth!
(It never is)
Headed for single digits. Stay short. $RGTI $23.38 https://t.co/3nRRpqIZ2a

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$RGTI. How is his hand feeling? https://t.co/uo5dQkUeJE


Summary: Author confirms an active short position in TSLA.

@gnoble79 Love to follow you if you short tsla. Else is just BS


Summary: Short OPEN: 30x rev/GP valuation unjustified given losses through 2026 and no profitability until 2028 at earliest.

MY $OPEN comments are normally focused on the fundamentals, not the share price (as opposed to the bulls who only focus in the share price and narrative.)
However, for all the bulls who were hailing the warrant issue as some type of brilliant move, the warrant issue has come and gone.
@APompliano @ericjackson
@dayetweets @m3_melody
Again, CHEAP gimmick!!!
Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.
$OPEN is valued at 30x revenues/gross profits, will again lose money in 2026 and is only guiding for profitability in 2028 at the earliest.

SELL SELL SELL


Summary: Bearish TSLA, expects price to fall below $200; cites fundamental deterioration.

@MikeJ95714567 I am not making short term calls. I think $TSLA easily goes below 200.
The emperor is now wearing no clothes.

@gnoble79 Good short term call.  But you have to understand the context that shorts like Gordon Johnson, Dick Chanos, and many others have been calling for the stock to implode for the 15 years plus.

Unlike them, I hope you figure out when to get out of your position.


Summary: Short TSLA: collapsing sales/earnings, Q4 and 2026 seen as complete disasters; fundamentals will override bullish narratives.

@TravisAbbott429 I am paying attention to the collapse in sales and earnings of $TSLA.
4q and 2026 will be a complete disaster.
Ultimately profits trump narratives.

@gnoble79 Energy is growing massively. Pay attention. Tesla has their own lithium refinery now as well. Try and keep up.. theyre innovating and expanding faster than your hatred can make excuses for itself.


Summary: Short TSLA: earnings estimates collapsing, 260x PE, 15x revenues, only unrealistic hopes supporting price; expects stock to halve.

Earnings estimates for $TSLA have been collapsing. 2025 consensus estimates were once over $8 and are now $1.65!
Gary, here is a fun fact for you.
Did you know that CUMULATIVE EPS  SINCE INCEPTION have been a mere $9 for $TSLA.
Combine that with the fact that $TSLA is now valued at 260x PE and 15x revenues. It is only unrealistic hopes/promises that are supporting the share price. I expect the stock to get cut in half. I went short yesterday.

Many $TSLA bulls ask me why there’s so little follow through in TSLA stock after seemingly big positive events, like yesterday’s shareholder vote overwhelmingly approving Elon’s comp plan by a 3-1 margin. TSLA has become more of a momentum stock this year rather than one driven https://t.co/EiHdh0skXH


Summary: Short TSLA; expects the stock to completely implode.

@MikeJ95714567 Unlike you, daily fluctuations don't mean much to me.
But since you ask, down 7% today for $TSLA  is not too shabby. I expect the stock to completely implode.

@gnoble79 How's that short position going today?


$TSLA short. Driverless robotaxis ain't happening any time soon.

Summary: Short TSLA; robotaxi thesis won't materialize soon, rejecting parent's $500-$1000+ bull case.

@A5T3R0lD $TSLA short. Driverless robotaxis ain’t happening any time soon. https://t.co/HGhpxZioDn

$TSLA WILL HIT $500 SHORTLY, AND THEN PROB $650-$850 NEXT YEAR, AND THEN PROBABLY OVER $1000 IN 2027.

WHAT HAPPENED TO BEARS LIKE GORDON JOHNSON AND OTHERS CALLING FOR LIKE $TSLA TO HIT LIKE $20. 🤣WHAT A BUNCH OF CLOWNS 🤡


Summary: Decisive sell call on Opendoor; fundamentals-based, consistent bearish stance.

You were saying?

I don’t “flip” negative. I am consistent - OPEN is a SELL, period. I am focused on the fundamentals.
You, on the other hand, post breathlessly in hyperbolic prose multiple times a day. You have proven consistently that you are unable to call the stock on a daily basis, so stop wasting your time!

@LloydReeves13B @gnoble79 Every time George flips negative, the stock ends up climbing. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.


Summary: Short TSLA; driverless robotaxis won't materialize anytime soon, undermining the bull thesis.

$TSLA Driverless Robotaxis ain’t happening anytime soon.
SHORT $TSLA

@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @TommyThornton @MichaelMOTTCM


I expect the stock to do very badly in the coming years. Tesla is valued on 13x sales and 240x earnings... On a comparable basis $TSLA would only be worth $25 per share.

Summary: Bearish TSLA to $25 on fundamentals vs 240x earnings valuation; bearish OPEN on 14 years of no profits and 22x EV/sales for house flipping.

Thank you for that question. That is the best question that anyone has EVER asked me about $TSLA . I had to think hard about a good answer.

$TSLA has consistently undershot expectations in terms of fundamental performance.
I have been correct on the fundamentals, but wrong on the stock. Investors have been chasing narrative over cash flow. The $TSLA story has captured the imagination of investors. Normally stock prices follow earnings. Not in this case. Never did I imagine that a company generating $97b in revenues and $5.5 of profits (both 2025 consensus estimates) would be valued at $1.3 T!
Going forward I believe that things will get much worse for $TSLA as tax incentives go away and competition intensifies. Despite eternal promises from Musk, the non-automotive businesses are still incidental to the overall company. Also color me very skeptical on FSD. Tesla remains a car company IMHO.
Tesla is valued on 13x sales and 240x earnings. This compares with perhaps 1x sales and 9x earnings for the typical auto company. On a comparable basis $TSLA would only be worth $25 per share. I expect the stock to do very badly in the coming years. I would note that $TSLA is the same price as it was four years ago, having materially underperformed the market since late 2021.

As regards $OPEN , yes narrative and speculation may continue to drive the stock up, just as was the case for $AMC (but we all know how that ended). The share price may well continue to rise in the short run. I have no idea. That is also why I am not short.

Fundamentally $OPEN remains extremely challenged. In 14 years they have NEVER made money. Theirs is a low margin business in a fiercely competitive industry. 22x EV/sales for house flipping . No thanks. I struggle to see how they can generate profits to even remotely justify the current $9 share price - forget about $82. Hand waving, eliminating 1200 employees reflexively chanting 5x revenues, citing AI and mobilizing  “the army” is not going to sufficiently move the needle. Sorry general Eric.

I am waiting for someone to make a back of the envelope case for the unit economics of their business going forward. Until then, I just don’t see it.
I am reminded that book value per share is $.90 . Other valuation analysis  yield a similar number.

This is not about being a growth investor or a value investor or a technology investor. Peter Lynch would always tell us that In the long run and on average, stock prices follow earnings. While in the short term, earnings and stock prices may diverge, over the long term I still believe this is the case.
I could have written a lot more, but this is enough for now. Again thanks for such a great question. I may well do a space on this topic.
@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @Realtor_Stocks @1TradingDee @dayetweets @DavidDTawil @rusty__tillery @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @mcgill_s @OHare888 @APompliano @DougKass


Fundamentally $OPEN remains extremely challenged. In 14 years they have NEVER made money... I struggle to see how they can generate profits to even remotely justify the current $9 share price


Summary: Direct short call on Tesla.

@gnoble79 I would if I thought you would focus more on equities you own or would buy and why. Not interested in all of the negativity based content and attacks.


That is laughable and redefines the term "low expectations." ...current valuation in excess of 40 net revenues/gross profits...the company is expecting to continue to lose money in 2026

Summary: Bearish OPEN: revenues down ~48% YoY, valuation >40x gross profit, losses continuing into 2026 — guidance beat is a low-bar illusion.

Talk about a low bar. $OPEN guiding to revenues of $600mm 4q 2025 vs $1.178B 4q 2024 and $$1.47B 4q 2023. And $OPEN bulls want to tout that sales are running above the guidance of down 48% YOY. That is laughable and redefines the term “low expectations.”

Note to self - while revenues will presumably rise in the future, this level of unit sales on an annualized basis would yield gross profits (total net revenues to $OPEN) of less than $200mm, implying a current valuation in excess of 40 net revenues/gross profits. Also remember that the company is expecting to continue to lose money in 2026. @dayetweets @m3_melody @1TradingDee @UnicusResearch @iv2171

$OPEN now $52.7m ahead of revenue guidance QTD vs expected.

Current as of today: $312.1m

Expected this time in the QTR: $259.4m

734 homes to sell at current avg sale price of $381k

51 days left to go. https://t.co/Bq225MIRJa


Summary: Bearish TSLA: mocks wildly bullish fundamental forecasts, implies the stock's strength despite terrible fundamentals will not last.

Forecasting is never easy, and Mr. Market can be a very tough teacher, a fact which is lost upon
@ICannot_Enough . He is quick to criticize others, buts let’s have a look at his own $TSLA forecasts: 950k deliveries for 4q 2025? More like 400k! https://t.co/BG2eEzhQ49

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$90B in 4q 2025 revenues for $TSLA according to forecast by @ICannot_Enough? More like $26B! https://t.co/PbatBH62Kn

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$35b in 3q 2025 $TSLA operating earnings forecast by @ICannot_Enough ? More like $1.6B! 4q $TSLA may generate a loss.

Hard to be as wrong as @ICannot_Enough on the $TSLA fundamentals, but nevertheless have the stock do so well.

This too shall pass. https://t.co/yD56BYVQnS


Not a Believer' in Tesla (TSLA), 'It's Always Promises, Promises, and More Promises'

Summary: Shares Noble's bearish stance on TSLA: skeptical of repeated unfulfilled promises.

Noble: ‘Not a Believer’ in Tesla (TSLA), ‘It’s Always Promises, Promises, and More Promises’ https://t.co/ERb62Z9ji3 #

$CAVA $OPEN $TSLA $CMG $XRT $GLD


Summary: Bearish OPEN: no profits until 2027, worsening margins, 8x book overvalued, targets $3 by year-end on tax-loss selling.

$OPEN
Key points from release:

1)No profits until 2027.

2)Margins to get hit hard in 4q as they are stuck with bad inventory.

3) Most importantly, no silver bullet. They remain a low margin asset heavy house flipper. They are not a software or AI company.

4) Valuation is still obscenely expensive. Book value
declined to 74 cents per share, and will go lower in the coming quarters as losses continue. 8x book for a loss making, asset heavy house flipper.

5) With sales set to decline further and losses on the horizon for the next four quarters, the outlook is truly awful. I expect Opendoor to fall through the trap door.
$3 before year end would not surprise me as tax loss
selling materializes.

$OPEN Earnings:

- Revenue: $915 million

"We are refounding Opendoor as a software and AI company. In my first month as CEO, we've made a decisive break from the past -- returning to the office, eliminating reliance on consultants, and launching over a dozen AI-powered products https://t.co/IdCM3WZdkg


Summary: Short TSLA: earnings collapsing, EV credits gone, market share losses, 3rd year of falling deliveries, 250x earnings valuation unsustainable; called biggest bubble in stock market history.

$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history.
Earnings are collapsing. The 2025 consensus estimate has gone from $8 to $1.65. They will lose money in 2026.
EV credits and tax incentives are gone.
Competition is increasing and they are losing market share.
2026 will be the third consecutive year of falling deliveries.
15x sales and 250x earnings is insane.
The share price is sustained only by more outrageous promises of FSD and robotics.
Shareholders will get what they deserve.

In the first ten months of 2023, volumes for $TSLA nearly hit 55,000 electric vehicles in Germany, Europe’s largest car market.

Now it’s not even 16,000 through October 2025, a whopping 70% decline in just two years.


Summary: Bearish OPEN: fundamentals support only $1, narrative has pushed stock to $7 with enormous improvement already priced in.

@imedward333 @danielsethlewis @paytonandavadad @vishalgarg1_0 @ericjackson Narrative has pushed the stock to $7.
Fundamentals say $OPEN is only worth $1. The market has already discounted an enormous improvement.

@danielsethlewis @paytonandavadad @gnoble79 @vishalgarg1_0 @ericjackson Oh so you expecting $BETR’s better future and growth but thinking Eric’s engagement could be a problem? But isn’t a fact that he made attention and traffic to this company? More than it’s past


Summary: Short TSLA: sales and earnings set to implode with no meaningful cybertaxi/AI/robot revenue in 2026.

@Micro2Macr0 $TSLA will crash as sales and earnings implode. No appreciable revenues from cybertaxis, AI or robots in 2026. SELL.

$TSLA needs to drop to $398 to close out the gap. Getting REAL close. That's where you can expect the bounce out of this falling broadening wedge. https://t.co/7cIzAEjaFm


Summary: Bearish TSLA: expects earnings to fall in 2026 on third consecutive year of auto sales decline.

@Mower20101 @AdamParx @BLSmith2112 @abetterfuture42 I believe earnings will be lower in 2026 as $TSLA auto sales decline for the third consecutive year.

@AdamParx @BLSmith2112 @gnoble79 @abetterfuture42 Normal dcf, 4.8% rfr, 6% growth (too much imo, but was upping it) and $0.70 fcf (based on carbon credits going away. Factors out to about $21 pre buck $1 fcf. (Am more conservative on cash, but was pretty lax on expectations). *Used CFRA eps estimates. https://t.co/GoFRElkas4


Summary: Explicit SELL on OPEN: valued at 20x net sales vs fair comp of 0.9x, implying ~$1 fair value vs $6.36 last sale — wildly overvalued.

$OPEN will do about 12k homes this year and presently is valued on 20x 2025 estimated net sales (gross margin) of $350mm. Net sales is the relevant metric to use in order to make a sensible comparison to any other remotely similar companies.
.9x sales would roughly be a fair numbers based on comps. That would imply a valuation of 35 cents per share for $OPEN . Book value is around $1 per share. Let’s be generous and call it $1. Last sale was 6.36.
On this basis it is fair to say that $OPEN is wildly overvalued. A HUGE improvement will be required to even justify the present share price. SELL.
@nejatian @dayetweets @m3_melody

If @Opendoor  executes and the market prices it at 3× sales, the math supports $OPEN ~$53/share in 2026 and ~$123/share by 2030.

🎯30k homes in 2026 = ~0.7% US market share
🎯62k homes in 2030 = ~1.3% US market share https://t.co/Gk5ULWDKxz


If you are a $TSLA investor you should be very worried. It's difficult to justify TSLA's forward P/E of 200x+ in what is clearly a commodity business (unsupervised autonomy) where TSLA is one of many fighting for market share.

Summary: Bearish TSLA at 200x+ P/E in a commodity autonomy business where it trails Chinese rivals; implicitly bullish on BIDU/PONY/WRD as leaders in paid autonomous rides.

If you are a $TSLA investor you should be very worried.

“TSLA bulls say it doesn’t matter that TSLA Oct global volumes are down -30-35% YoY, since the business is transitioning to unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots. That’s a fool’s narrative with 70%+ TSLA profits from EVs.

With EVs, TSLA had first mover advantage and clearly had the best product on the market at a price that was also highly profitable.  Nobody else except BYD has made money on EVs.

TSLA bulls refuse to acknowledge that automous ride-sharing is a commodity business where TSLA is behind the Chinese manufacturers ( $BIDU $PONY and $WRD) who are already completing 450K paid fully autonomous rides per week and will license their technology to anyone who will pay for it.

I have said for years that unsupervised autonomy is table stakes for anyone in the automotive business and that prediction looks more prescient every day.  Fully autonomous ride-hailing is already a crowded space and will only get more crowded as others solve for unsupervised autonomy. Few sell-side analysts’ TSLA models show significant future revenue or profits for autonomous ride-hailing (generally <5% of 2030 revs) and almost none show revs or profits for humanoid robots.  It’s hilarious that TSLA bulls cheerlead without even attempting to justify TSLA’s valuation.

Bottom line:  It’s difficult to justify TSLA’s forward P/E of 200x+ in what is clearly a commodity business (unsupervised autonomy) where TSLA is one of many fighting for market share.” - Gary Black


TSLA is behind the Chinese manufacturers ( $BIDU $PONY and $WRD) who are already completing 450K paid fully autonomous rides per week and will license their technology to anyone who will pay for it.


Summary: Bearish OPEN: house flipping is low-margin and asset-intensive, no path to significant profits, current share price unjustifiable.

Yes $OPEN is trying  to change. But the fact remains that house flipping is fundamentally a low margin, asset intensive business and that they have not laid out a way to significant profits going forward. I am hard pressed to see how one can even justify the current share price  - forget about $82!

@Badie912 @gnoble79 That’s the problem with your stance, if you BELIEVE that the company will not change at all and focus on the review mirror and a since-left CEO then you certainly can.

They are pivoting. You either believe in them or you don’t. Neither of us have proof of the future game plan.


Summary: Short OPEN: wildly overpriced given EV/transaction flows vs Compass; needs massive revenue growth and cost cuts just to justify current price.

You are also totally wrong on EV/transaction flows.  $OPEN did $5B whereas $COMP did $217B!!! No matter how you slice it your method of calculation is flat out wrong/inconsistent. $OPEN is wildly overpriced for what it is right now. Revenues would have to grow and they would have to savagely cut costs just to justify the current price. And people are talking about $82!!! The numbers just do add up period.

@gnoble79 You’re not wrong about the rev model difference — but that’s exactly why $OPEN’s P/S multiple isn’t meant to mirror SaaS or broker comps.

They’re not a “ticket broker” — they’re a market maker for residential real estate.

Revenue recognition looks inflated because they book


Summary: Author confirms a short position in TSLA (implied by parent context).

@Leonari13 I am pressed with your command of the English language. You must be having a bad day. I am short,

@gnoble79 Just short the fucking stock you absolute genius! Make a fortune. Get rich. But no. Just tweeting BS on the daily. You have no balls.


Summary: Sarcastic endorsement of TSLA's premium valuation vs peers generating 23x revenue and 20x EBIT; actually bearish on TSLA valuation.

$TSLA revenues $98B vs $2.244T for the other 20 automakers combined. $TSLA EBIT $7B vs $144B for the other 20 combined.
So let me get this straight.
$TSLA is worth more than the other 20 automakers combined. However the other  20 companies combined generate 23x in revenues and 20x in EBIT.  Sounds about right.
@RealJimChanos @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @fallacyalarm @amitisinvesting

Tesla is worth more than the next 20 automakers combined. $TSLA https://t.co/9uBgW7x3LW


Summary: Warns OPEN bulls; tags it overvalued and a bagjob — bearish stance.

$OPEN bulls beware.
#bagjob #overvalued
@m3_melody @dayetweets @UnicusResearch @APompliano @cvpayne https://t.co/kiLtS77nF6


Musk is setting them up for a big disappointment, as Tesla has yet to obtain Level 4 AV authorization from the Texas DMV... Tesla can't even obtain its permit from the Texas DMV until late May... Tesla's FSD is still far from Level 4 autonomy

Summary: Bearish TSLA: robotaxi launch is regulatory theater; no DMV permit until May 2026, FSD not Level 4, Musk overpromising and setting investors up for disappointment.

Thank you for your attention to this matter. $TSLA https://t.co/Bw6GWjQkBO

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https://t.co/AHZrUvLTvo

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“On December 8th, Musk announced that Tesla’s robotaxis in Austin would be driverless in “about 3 weeks”, sending the stock up by 11% in 6 trading days to a new all-time high of $490, despite a 2% decline in the Nasdaq 100.
There’ve been 3 videos on Twitter showing driverless robotaxis in Austin since then, but Tesla failed to close above its December 16th all-time high of $490, which is a bad sign, given the excitement over these clips.
Tesla amped things up on Tuesday, with an updated Robotaxi page on its website, announcing that “Autonomous Robotaxi rides are currently being offered in Austin, Texas” (see Video 1 below), and confirming that “unoccupied testing” began in mid-December.
While the majority of retail investors and some large institutional investors are interpreting this as Tesla’s official robotaxi launch, Musk is setting them up for a big disappointment, as Tesla has yet to obtain Level 4 AV authorization from the Texas DMV.
This is why the fine print on the Robotaxi page of Tesla’s website says, “No rides are available to the general public at this time”, which is another example of Tesla telling investors one thing, while reporting another to the regulators (the main reason why the California DMV was able to charge Tesla with consumer fraud over its marketing of FSD).
•The real reason for Musk’s dog & pony show in Austin: Musk likely feels compelled to show some driverless robotaxis transporting employees around Austin to fulfill his promise of “removing the safety drivers” by year end. But this is purely a show, as Tesla can’t offer paid rides in Austin due to the new robotaxi laws adopted in December, which state that paid driverless rides require AV authorization from the DMV. It’ll be interesting to see how Musk walks this back on the Q4 2025 earnings call in late January.
•Tesla can’t even obtain its permit from the Texas DMV until late May: Due to the installation of a new computer system to handle permits for AV testing and robotaxi operations in Texas, the DMV won’t be able to issue permits until May 28, 2026. So, even if Tesla were to declare FSD as Level 4-compliant tomorrow, it wouldn’t be able to obtain the proper permit until late May. Waymo obtained its permit under the old laws in 2024, which is why it’s expanding its services statewide in Texas while Tesla is stuck in Austin.
•New Texas robotaxi laws are strict and present more hurdles for Tesla: As explained in my last report, Tesla Will Fail to Go Driverless in 2026 (here [https://t.co/nirWkzNMvw]), Tesla’s FSD is still far from Level 4 autonomy, as was underlined by the recent California DMV ruling. While Musk wields immense political power in Texas, the stricter robotaxi laws were installed by the insurance and car dealers’ lobbies, which also have significant political influence in the State. Because of this, Tesla must prove to the Texas DMV that FSD meets the definitions of Level 4 autonomy (tough call, in my opinion).
•Recent robotaxi crash data in Austin raises eyebrows: While Tesla reported to the City of Austin that only 2 of its 8 robotaxi crashes were its own fault (link here [https://t.co/ydORWqrZMn]), a closer look at what they reported to NHTSA raises many red flags. The 8th crash in October was more heavily redacted than usual, even though it had to be towed away. This, along with other details of Tesla’s robotaxi crashes in Austin, further highlights how far FSD is from Level 4 driverless capabilities.”


Summary: Short OPEN: 20x EV/revenue makes it wildly overvalued despite the bull thesis.

@originalclanker @Opendoor @rabois @nejatian Look at the numbers and you might learn something.
It is plainly obvious that at 20x EV/revenue, $OPEN is wildly overvalued.
PERIOD.

I don’t understand @Opendoor doubters.

Residential real estate transactions SUCK.

It’s a horrendous experience for sellers and buyers. Everywhere. Worldwide.

A) Opendoor fixes this. Period.

B) @rabois and @nejatian are building a team of killers.

What more do you want? 🐂


Eric, please do a reverse split. That will make it easier to short. ... $SRXH has 69.5mm shares outstanding, has registered 187mm shares for sale, with a potential for 2.8b share fully diluted! That makes the equity basically worthless.

Summary: Bearish SRXH: massive dilution (2.8B fully diluted shares) makes equity basically worthless; explicitly soliciting a reverse split to make shorting easier.

Pet food, crypto, 100 baggers  and @ericjackson - that’s not just a merger, that’s a sinking ship.

SRXH was formerly known as Better Choice Company (pet food and wellness products) and rebranded to SRx Health Solutions in April 2025.

In December 2025, it announced a definitive agreement to acquire EMJ Crypto Technologies (EMJX), pivoting the business toward a digital-asset treasury management platform using AI, quantitative models, and risk controls for managing crypto and digital assets.”

Eric, please do a reverse split. That will make it easier to short. @APompliano @dayetweets

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$SRXH has 69.5mm shares outstanding, has registered 187mm shares for sale, with a potential for 2.8b share fully diluted! That makes the equity basically worthless. @ericjackson @APompliano https://t.co/dJbWh3lTKI

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You can’t make this stuff up. https://t.co/2IqMfjowXi


$TSLA trading on 15x sales and 270x earnings, with the company likely to generate losses starting this 4q... In what universe is that worth $450?

Summary: Bearish TSLA: 15x sales, 270x earnings, cumulative EPS $9 since inception, losses expected in 4Q — stock uninvestable at $450.

This fellow is clueless. Not  only is $TSLA trading on 15x sales and 270x earnings, with the company likely to generate losses starting this 4q, but $TSLA has produced total cumulative EPS of $9 since inception. CUMULATIVE SINCE INCEPTION and now likely to fall into losses!!!  In what universe is that worth $450?


22X EV/sales for this dump of a company $OPEN

Summary: Bearish Opendoor: 22x EV/sales seen as excessive for a fundamentally weak business.

@8BB8B8 @GMN_watch @rabois Independent analyses (e.g., RealEstateWitch 2025 study of 409 homes) show Opendoor offers average 8.79% below resale value (~$26k less on $339k home), plus 5% fee and repairs (total 7-10%). Traditional sales net more via market competition, despite 5-6% commissions, but take


Summary: Bearish OPEN: convertible bond conversion causes staggering 28% dilution; prior valuations should be cut by that amount.

In the aftermath of the discussion yesterday over the $OPEN convertible bond conversion, I was really struck by the fact that dilution will be a STAGGERING 28%. I think virtually all were unaware of the size of the dilution. I say that because there had been very little discussion of the size of the dilution on X. Instead, to the extent that the convertible had been previously discussed, the focus was on the impact of the conversion on the share price come October 1.  The key point is that whatever one previously thought the valuation of OPEN should be, you should haircut that amount by 28%.
One last point. Even more incredible is that so many investors don’t seem to care about this “minor” point. No words…


TSLA would still not be worth even $100 per share based on a sum of the parts analysis. Liars figure. Figures don't lie. Ignore the narrative. Follow the fundamentals.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: auto biz worth only $20/share, non-existent future businesses overvalued at $1.5T, sum-of-parts below $100; fundamentals say sell.

The story of $TSLA has been a share  price buoyed by an endless stream of narratives, lies and broken promises.

Looking beyond the hype, TSLA has generated CUMULATIVE earnings of $38B since inception, yet enjoys a market cap of $1.6T.

The automotive related business is 87% of revenues, is very challenged and will experience a third consecutive year of falling sales in 2026. The auto business is worth only $20 per share based on comparative valuations.

The bulls respond by pointing to the future, citing robotaxis, oculus and AI. None of those businesses are presently generating any revenues.
Nevertheless, the market has already ascribed a valuation of nearly $1.5T to those businesses. This is sheer madness. Even if one were to place a value on these non existent business by looking at comparable companies,
$TSLA would still not be worth even
$100 per share based on a sum of the parts analysis.

Liars figure. Figures don’t lie.

Ignore the narrative. Follow the fundamentals.

As my former boss Peter Lynch always says, “KNOW WHAT YOU OWN.”

The emperor is wearing no clothes.

@DougKass @HedgeyeIndstrls
@GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen


Summary: Bearish OPEN; dismisses bull thesis, calls it the most overvalued house-flipping company in the world.

@mani_parmar $OPEN is more accurately described as the most overvalued house flipping company in the world. There, I fixed it for you. @dayetweets @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @doomerzoomer

$OPEN Last line 🔥 - Opendoor will become the most aggressive software company in the world.

Yes, today it was supposed to bounce but dumped with the broader market.

Congrats who bought cheap shares like I did, our big green day will come very soon.

Keep accumulating 🚀 https://t.co/woXobDqtjS


Summary: Bearish Opendoor: persistently unprofitable, low-margin, asset-heavy model with hype but no substance.

That is why $OPEN has been a lousy company, losing money every year since inception. Despite all the announcements and hype, $OPEN is still  a low margin, asset heavy house flipper.


Summary: Discloses active short position in TSLA.

@bava23 @BradMunchen @WSJ @unusual_whales @WallStreetMav @wallstreetbets @WallStreetApes @themotleyfool @SawyerMerritt @garyblack00 @APompliano I am short

@gnoble79 @BradMunchen @WSJ @unusual_whales @WallStreetMav @wallstreetbets @WallStreetApes @themotleyfool @SawyerMerritt @garyblack00 @APompliano George 2026 is going to be rude awakening for you.

Why don’t you short $TSLA??


Summary: Endorses bullish options skew signal on SLV ETF, implying silver ETF moves higher.

SLV ETF option Alert

Very Bullish skew developing

Based on very wide deviation of put call spreads on SLV ETF options from their respective moving averages,  it appears we are at the same bullish skew reading we were at on  June 4 of this year.  Put/Call spread are pointing to https://t.co/g3oul0jcnJ


Driverless robotaxis from $TSLA ain't happening any time soon in Texas or for that matter anywhere else. Level 2 FSD is not adequate for regulatory approval.

Summary: Bearish TSLA: robotaxi rollout not imminent anywhere; FSD Level 2 fails regulatory bar and safety-monitor removal is a publicity stunt.

Driverless robotaxis from $TSLA ain’t happening any time soon in Texas or for that matter anywhere else. Level 2 FSD is not adequate for regulatory approval.

The removal of safety monitors is just another publicity stunt by @elonmusk https://t.co/oy4fvSd88K


Summary: Bearish OPEN: dismisses 'buy it now' home-purchase pitch as a gimmick; calls it a fundamentally bad business.

This gimmick  makes zero sense. Buying a house is not an impulse purchase! This is not EBay. $OPEN is in a bad business. PERIOD.

" What we really wanna do the next level is we wanna allow this buyer side to buy the home in 30 seconds...Imagine every home you see online having a buy it now button, you're like, I like this house. I want it."

$OPEN
https://t.co/aBKZb255AN


Summary: Short OPEN: May 2025 convertible bond conversion imminent, adding 207M shares (28% dilution) and ~$1.6B equity supply starting tomorrow.

The $OPEN May 2025 convertible bond is well in the money. As the bonds are converted that will add 207mm shares to the existing 736mm shares outstanding. That is 28% DILUTION!!! Conversion can start TOMORROW. That is potentially $1.6b of equity supply. While in theory the company could satisfy conversion requests with cash, that is most unlikely as they don’t have adequate funds. Regardless of whether the bonds are converted, the share count is now effectively 943mm. Oh, but you knew that already. Wait, did the $OPEN bulls “forget” to mention that?


Summary: Bearish OPEN: warrant issuance was a failed short-squeeze gimmick; fundamentals and valuation will ultimately prevail against the narrative.

This is indeed endless chatter about $OPEN, signifying NOTHING.

The gimmick of issuing warrants was nothing more than a transparent, lame attempt to squeeze the shorts.
MAJOR FAIL!

I kindly suggest that you pay attention to the fundamentals and valuation, instead of the narrative and share price.

In the end fundamentals prevail.

@dayetweets @m3_melody @APompliano @ericjackson


Summary: Short Opendoor: no credible unit economics, post-Nov 6 catalyst will disappoint, any bounce short-lived; fundamentals will weigh.

The Trapdoor may soon open for Opendoor once Nov 6 passes. So many investors are expecting great things to be announced - I suspect they will be disappointed. I have yet to see a model with credible unit economics to justify material upside in the share price. Buy the hype, sell the news? I expect any bounce in the share price to be short lived. The fundamentals will prevail in the end.
$OPEN  #trapdoor @dayetweets @m3_melody @Realtor_Stocks @1TradingDee @UnicusResearch

You want to bet against a team full of these people?

Couldn't be me.

$OPEN https://t.co/6guuRk57Yr