{"unit_id": "orig:1606479447464476675", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-12-24T02:38:41+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Much lower prices ahead for $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Expects much lower prices ahead for both TSLA and BTC.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The lessons shall be presented until learned. Much lower prices ahead for $TSLA and #BTC. https://t.co/lCQh75kV7u", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.1287809646953435, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.1287809646953435, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12482167159075108, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.11228861037462856, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003959293104592421, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01649235432071494, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03308891531476843, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03308891531476843, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.045516580224715275, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04149242964519462, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012427664909946845, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008403514330426187, "ret_p1w": -0.009165902969624717, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.009165902969624717, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.007645247892973939, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.017490733286778637, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0015206550766507787, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00832483031715392, "ret_p1m": 0.3238312987698213, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.3238312987698213, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.27414574349515575, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.2108964739414172, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04968555527466556, "bench_c_p1m": 0.11293482482840411, "ret_p3m": 0.7452796180127839, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.7452796180127839, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.7036948229568709, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.6299726707513147, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04158479505591295, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11530694726146917, "ret_p6m": 1.3781851061769075, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3781851061769075, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.2292029166361056, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.0735608436312507, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1489821895408019, "bench_c_p6m": 0.3046242625456568, "ret_p1y": 1.3010999684964042, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.3010999684964042, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.0497915499065549, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.8869302798493532, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2513084185898493, "bench_c_p1y": 0.41416968864705095, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.3238312987698213, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.27414574349515575, "alpha_c_stated": -0.2108964739414172, "price_path": [1.4584, 1.4313, 1.2218, 1.2863, 1.2072, 1.1827, 1.0446, 1.0436, 0.9844, 0.9912, 1.0323, 0.8789, 1.0105, 1.0182, 1.0352, 0.8999, 0.9655, 0.9363, 1.0387, 1.059, 1.0632, 1.0946, 1.0856, 1.0882, 0.9705, 0.9735, 0.9016, 0.8064, 0.7534, 0.6278, 0.7481, 0.7962, 0.7502, 0.782, 0.7133, 0.6789, 0.6516, 0.5387, 0.5574, 0.6792, 0.6792, 0.6761, 0.6766, 0.6575, 0.7846, 0.7846, 0.7861, 0.6723, 0.6482, 0.5952, 0.5897, 0.6412, 0.5382, 0.4753, 0.4372, 0.4452, 0.377, 0.3737, 0.2631, 0.261, 0.1489, 0.1288, 0.1288, 0.0, 0.0331, 0.1166, 0.1291, 0.1291, -0.0092, 0.0416, 0.0114, 0.0363, 0.0978, 0.0894, 0.1294, 0.1325, 0.1219, 0.1219, 0.2052, 0.1804, 0.1656, 0.2229, 0.3176, 0.3189, 0.3238, 0.469, 0.6306, 0.5276, 0.5877, 0.6628, 0.7257, 0.7413, 0.7852, 0.8039, 0.845, 0.9003, 0.8047, 0.7841, 0.918, 0.9637, 0.8519, 0.9093, 0.9093, 0.8091, 0.8411, 0.8522, 0.8046, 0.9031, 0.8855, 0.8586, 0.7498, 0.8129, 0.7764, 0.7205, 0.6682, 0.585, 0.5897, 0.5993, 0.6797, 0.654, 0.6877, 0.6511, 0.6797, 0.811, 0.7521, 0.7619, 0.7453, 0.7581, 0.7341, 0.7771, 0.7899, 0.9016, 0.7852, 0.7652, 0.7005, 0.6962, 0.6962, 0.6912, 0.7121, 0.6548, 0.7039, 0.6957, 0.7144, 0.6894, 0.6553, 0.494, 0.5131, 0.4899, 0.4727, 0.4093, 0.4683, 0.506, 0.4833, 0.4694, 0.4721, 0.4775, 0.5588, 0.5746, 0.5504, 0.5448, 0.5773, 0.5397, 0.5247, 0.5263, 0.5936, 0.6214, 0.6511, 0.7312, 0.7027, 0.6764, 0.6908, 0.7706, 0.7706, 0.8438, 0.8692, 0.9021, 0.9612, 0.9946, 1.0285, 1.0584, 1.1527, 1.2401, 1.2899, 1.3713, 1.3537, 1.3456, 1.3881, 1.3881, 1.5156, 1.3782]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1606479447464476675", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2022-12-24T02:38:41+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "flipped_to_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Much lower prices ahead for $TSLA and #BTC", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Expects much lower prices ahead for both TSLA and BTC.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The lessons shall be presented until learned. Much lower prices ahead for $TSLA and #BTC. https://t.co/lCQh75kV7u", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.007260814457909159, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.007260814457909159, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.01122010756250158, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01122010756250158, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003959293104592421, "bench_c_m1d": 0.003959293104592421, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.011975957353969946, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011975957353969946, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00045170755597689904, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00045170755597689904, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012427664909946845, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012427664909946845, "ret_p1w": -0.013672379123022882, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.013672379123022882, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.012151724046372103, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012151724046372103, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0015206550766507787, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0015206550766507787, "ret_p1m": 0.3378682064056775, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.3378682064056775, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.28818265113101194, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.28818265113101194, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04968555527466556, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04968555527466556, "ret_p3m": 0.6746040027981264, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.6746040027981264, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.6330192077422134, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.6330192077422134, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04158479505591295, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04158479505591295, "ret_p6m": 0.6742207610811111, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.6742207610811111, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.5252385715403092, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.5252385715403092, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1489821895408019, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1489821895408019, "ret_p1y": 1.5349431024571336, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.5349431024571336, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.2836346838672843, "alpha_c_p1y": -1.2836346838672843, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2513084185898493, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2513084185898493, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.3378682064056775, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.28818265113101194, "alpha_c_stated": -0.28818265113101194, "price_path": [0.1482, 0.1568, 0.1485, 0.1598, 0.202, 0.1915, 0.1794, 0.1553, 0.1313, 0.126, 0.1322, 0.1456, 0.1339, 0.1555, 0.1427, 0.1312, 0.1261, 0.1331, 0.1434, 0.1877, 0.2276, 0.1989, 0.2172, 0.2113, 0.2107, 0.1915, 0.1945, 0.2499, 0.2177, 0.0958, -0.0614, 0.0394, 0.0068, -0.0178, -0.0021, -0.0148, -0.0137, -0.0131, -0.0669, -0.0431, -0.0183, -0.0186, -0.0235, -0.0415, -0.0281, 0.0147, 0.0028, 0.01, 0.0033, 0.01, -0.0042, 0.0185, 0.0126, 0.0169, 0.0509, 0.0529, 0.0263, -0.0161, -0.0284, -0.0008, -0.006, -0.0053, -0.0073, 0.0, -0.012, -0.0217, -0.0164, -0.0187, -0.0137, -0.0142, -0.0033, -0.0049, 0.0019, 0.0164, 0.0311, 0.06, 0.1152, 0.1767, 0.2512, 0.2507, 0.2228, 0.2463, 0.3402, 0.3555, 0.3379, 0.3663, 0.3613, 0.364, 0.3499, 0.3676, 0.4021, 0.3872, 0.3859, 0.3452, 0.375, 0.3558, 0.2896, 0.2796, 0.2889, 0.3133, 0.4367, 0.3962, 0.4519, 0.4675, 0.4442, 0.4296, 0.4154, 0.3711, 0.3903, 0.3681, 0.3976, 0.3875, 0.3217, 0.3257, 0.3132, 0.2836, 0.2035, 0.1931, 0.4301, 0.4626, 0.4407, 0.4807, 0.6208, 0.6411, 0.6653, 0.6139, 0.6746, 0.6249, 0.604, 0.6116, 0.6755, 0.6568, 0.6831, 0.6425, 0.6648, 0.6654, 0.6575, 0.6505, 0.7526, 0.787, 0.7813, 0.7967, 0.8018, 0.7403, 0.7966, 0.7035, 0.6694, 0.6121, 0.6268, 0.673, 0.6798, 0.742, 0.7341, 0.6603, 0.6951, 0.7143, 0.705, 0.7456, 0.6368, 0.6347, 0.6325, 0.5958, 0.5842, 0.6072, 0.5979, 0.6193, 0.5858, 0.5893, 0.587, 0.6091, 0.5564, 0.5648, 0.5792, 0.6398, 0.6373, 0.6087, 0.5851, 0.6105, 0.5225, 0.6099, 0.5571, 0.5667, 0.5651, 0.5309, 0.5319, 0.4849, 0.5116, 0.556, 0.587, 0.6742]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1609417610394730496", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2023-01-01T05:13:54+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will be $50 within 6 months IMHO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Predicts TSLA crashes to $50 within 6 months, directly countering the parent's $400 PT bull thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@garyblack00 $TSLA will be $50 within 6 months IMHO.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "$TSLA catalysts - 12/31\n1/ TSLA 4Q delivs/EPS Jan\n2/ $7,500 EV credit into effect Jan\n3/ FSD V11 beta wide release Jan\n4/ Megapack revs/profits 1Q\n5/ TWTR CEO announcement 1Q\n6/ New gigas 1Q\n7/ TSLA $10B buyback 1Q\n8/ Cytruck launch mid-FY’23\n9/ $30K Compact FY’24\n$400 PT 6-12 mo", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "garyblack00", "ret_m1d": 0.13950048144232685, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.13950048144232685, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.1352728373398291, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.1335032172362427, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004227644102497763, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005997264206084152, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05124885285593783, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05124885285593783, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04352873422645409, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03676175301170059, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007720118629483741, "bench_c_p1d": 0.014487099844237239, "ret_p1w": 0.0994449597755871, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0994449597755871, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07381593596462466, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05154384005859192, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.025629023810962437, "bench_c_p1w": 0.04790111971699518, "ret_p1m": 0.6781684201923328, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.6781684201923328, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5994435924379884, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.49801424871864564, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.07872482775434442, "bench_c_p1m": 0.18015417147368717, "ret_p3m": 0.9191490253677725, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.9191490253677725, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.8400237598305058, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.7508625687717245, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07912526553726673, "bench_c_p3m": 0.16828645659604802, "ret_p6m": 1.3703977229538844, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3703977229538844, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.2158293254064947, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.0591658506487485, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1545683975473897, "bench_c_p6m": 0.31123187230513594, "ret_p1y": 1.3543016058499462, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.3543016058499462, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.0941670644538732, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.9338218320578726, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26013454139607295, "bench_c_p1y": 0.4204797737920736, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.6781684201923328, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5994435924379884, "alpha_c_stated": -0.49801424871864564, "price_path": [1.2029, 1.0636, 1.0625, 1.0028, 1.0096, 1.0511, 0.8963, 1.0291, 1.0369, 1.054, 0.9175, 0.9837, 0.9542, 1.0575, 1.0781, 1.0822, 1.114, 1.1049, 1.1075, 0.9887, 0.9918, 0.9192, 0.8231, 0.7697, 0.6428, 0.7643, 0.8129, 0.7664, 0.7985, 0.7291, 0.6944, 0.6669, 0.5529, 0.5718, 0.6947, 0.6947, 0.6916, 0.6921, 0.6728, 0.8011, 0.8011, 0.8026, 0.6878, 0.6635, 0.61, 0.6044, 0.6563, 0.5525, 0.4889, 0.4505, 0.4586, 0.3897, 0.3864, 0.2747, 0.2726, 0.1596, 0.1392, 0.1392, 0.0093, 0.0426, 0.1269, 0.1395, 0.1395, 0.0, 0.0512, 0.0207, 0.0459, 0.108, 0.0994, 0.1399, 0.143, 0.1323, 0.1323, 0.2164, 0.1913, 0.1764, 0.2342, 0.3298, 0.3311, 0.3361, 0.4826, 0.6457, 0.5417, 0.6024, 0.6782, 0.7416, 0.7574, 0.8017, 0.8206, 0.8621, 0.9179, 0.8214, 0.8006, 0.9357, 0.9819, 0.869, 0.927, 0.927, 0.8258, 0.8581, 0.8693, 0.8213, 0.9207, 0.903, 0.8758, 0.766, 0.8297, 0.7929, 0.7364, 0.6836, 0.5996, 0.6044, 0.6141, 0.6953, 0.6693, 0.7033, 0.6663, 0.6952, 0.8278, 0.7683, 0.7782, 0.7614, 0.7744, 0.7501, 0.7935, 0.8065, 0.9191, 0.8018, 0.7815, 0.7162, 0.7119, 0.7119, 0.7068, 0.7279, 0.6701, 0.7197, 0.7114, 0.7302, 0.705, 0.6706, 0.5078, 0.5271, 0.5037, 0.4863, 0.4223, 0.4819, 0.52, 0.497, 0.483, 0.4858, 0.4912, 0.5732, 0.5892, 0.5648, 0.5591, 0.5919, 0.5539, 0.5389, 0.5404, 0.6083, 0.6364, 0.6664, 0.7472, 0.7185, 0.692, 0.7065, 0.787, 0.787, 0.8609, 0.8865, 0.9197, 0.9794, 1.013, 1.0473, 1.0774, 1.1726, 1.2609, 1.3111, 1.3932, 1.3755, 1.3673, 1.4102, 1.4102, 1.5389, 1.4002, 1.4478, 1.3737, 1.2299, 1.3146, 1.3704]}
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{"unit_id": "quote:1610098531897069568", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2023-01-03T02:19:38+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Things you don't see at a bottom in a stock $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Retail buying into TSLA price drops is not a bottoming signal; implied further downside ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Things you don’t see at a bottom in a stock $TSLA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Retail investors keep boosting their purchases of Tesla as prices drop.\n\nSource: @vandaresearch https://t.co/x7cDbI28wg", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.13950048144232685, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.13950048144232685, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.1352728373398291, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.1335032172362427, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004227644102497763, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005997264206084152, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05124885285593783, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05124885285593783, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04352873422645409, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03676175301170059, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007720118629483741, "bench_c_p1d": 0.014487099844237239, "ret_p1w": 0.0994449597755871, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0994449597755871, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07381593596462466, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05154384005859192, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.025629023810962437, "bench_c_p1w": 0.04790111971699518, "ret_p1m": 0.6781684201923328, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.6781684201923328, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5994435924379884, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.49801424871864564, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.07872482775434442, "bench_c_p1m": 0.18015417147368717, "ret_p3m": 0.9191490253677725, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.9191490253677725, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.8400237598305058, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.7508625687717245, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07912526553726673, "bench_c_p3m": 0.16828645659604802, "ret_p6m": 1.3703977229538844, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3703977229538844, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.2158293254064947, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.0591658506487485, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1545683975473897, "bench_c_p6m": 0.31123187230513594, "ret_p1y": 1.3543016058499462, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.3543016058499462, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.0941670644538732, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.9338218320578726, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26013454139607295, "bench_c_p1y": 0.4204797737920736, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.6781684201923328, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5994435924379884, "alpha_c_stated": -0.49801424871864564, "price_path": [1.2029, 1.0636, 1.0625, 1.0028, 1.0096, 1.0511, 0.8963, 1.0291, 1.0369, 1.054, 0.9175, 0.9837, 0.9542, 1.0575, 1.0781, 1.0822, 1.114, 1.1049, 1.1075, 0.9887, 0.9918, 0.9192, 0.8231, 0.7697, 0.6428, 0.7643, 0.8129, 0.7664, 0.7985, 0.7291, 0.6944, 0.6669, 0.5529, 0.5718, 0.6947, 0.6947, 0.6916, 0.6921, 0.6728, 0.8011, 0.8011, 0.8026, 0.6878, 0.6635, 0.61, 0.6044, 0.6563, 0.5525, 0.4889, 0.4505, 0.4586, 0.3897, 0.3864, 0.2747, 0.2726, 0.1596, 0.1392, 0.1392, 0.0093, 0.0426, 0.1269, 0.1395, 0.1395, 0.0, 0.0512, 0.0207, 0.0459, 0.108, 0.0994, 0.1399, 0.143, 0.1323, 0.1323, 0.2164, 0.1913, 0.1764, 0.2342, 0.3298, 0.3311, 0.3361, 0.4826, 0.6457, 0.5417, 0.6024, 0.6782, 0.7416, 0.7574, 0.8017, 0.8206, 0.8621, 0.9179, 0.8214, 0.8006, 0.9357, 0.9819, 0.869, 0.927, 0.927, 0.8258, 0.8581, 0.8693, 0.8213, 0.9207, 0.903, 0.8758, 0.766, 0.8297, 0.7929, 0.7364, 0.6836, 0.5996, 0.6044, 0.6141, 0.6953, 0.6693, 0.7033, 0.6663, 0.6952, 0.8278, 0.7683, 0.7782, 0.7614, 0.7744, 0.7501, 0.7935, 0.8065, 0.9191, 0.8018, 0.7815, 0.7162, 0.7119, 0.7119, 0.7068, 0.7279, 0.6701, 0.7197, 0.7114, 0.7302, 0.705, 0.6706, 0.5078, 0.5271, 0.5037, 0.4863, 0.4223, 0.4819, 0.52, 0.497, 0.483, 0.4858, 0.4912, 0.5732, 0.5892, 0.5648, 0.5591, 0.5919, 0.5539, 0.5389, 0.5404, 0.6083, 0.6364, 0.6664, 0.7472, 0.7185, 0.692, 0.7065, 0.787, 0.787, 0.8609, 0.8865, 0.9197, 0.9794, 1.013, 1.0473, 1.0774, 1.1726, 1.2609, 1.3111, 1.3932, 1.3755, 1.3673, 1.4102, 1.4102, 1.5389, 1.4002, 1.4478, 1.3737, 1.2299, 1.3146, 1.3704]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1611743497689743361", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2023-01-07T15:16:09+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The Inevitable De-Rating Is Here - Time To Add To The Short?", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author endorses adding to the short on TSLA, framing de-rating as inevitable and already underway.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "“Tesla: The Inevitable De-Rating Is Here - Time To Add To The Short?” There, I fixed it.⁦@TommyThornton⁩ ⁦@StanphylCap⁩ ⁦@WallStCynic⁩ ⁦@GordonJohnson19⁩ ⁦⁩ ⁦@lisaabramowicz1⁩ ⁦@carlquintanilla⁩ ⁦⁩ ⁦@BradMunchen⁩ $TSLA https://t.co/LsrZRTdO16", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.05602404001454153, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.05602404001454153, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.056591165186933745, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.050003013912467864, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0005671251723922133, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006021026102073668, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007681374256751861, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007681374256751861, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01469432301141338, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.020250125787734108, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007012948754661519, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012568751530982247, "ret_p1w": 0.021958795662742947, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.021958795662742947, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.005473868508967916, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.029444480139757978, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.027432664171710863, "bench_c_p1w": 0.051403275802500925, "ret_p1m": 0.6432328886600771, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.6432328886600771, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5727690671646177, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.503171437645421, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.07046382149545938, "bench_c_p1m": 0.14006145101465606, "ret_p3m": 0.5451281852340859, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.5451281852340859, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.4861075870371687, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.45103434995814706, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.059020598196917184, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09409383527593884, "ret_p6m": 1.3363113898894627, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3363113898894627, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.1834765046146392, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.036310289888623, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.15283488527482358, "bench_c_p6m": 0.3000011000008398, "ret_p1y": 1.1828505449535824, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.1828505449535824, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.9356162264747814, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.8098859161311238, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.24723431847880106, "bench_c_p1y": 0.3729646288224586, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.6432328886600771, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5727690671646177, "alpha_c_stated": -0.503171437645421, "price_path": [0.8138, 0.8512, 0.7115, 0.8314, 0.8384, 0.8539, 0.7307, 0.7904, 0.7638, 0.8571, 0.8756, 0.8794, 0.908, 0.8998, 0.9021, 0.7949, 0.7977, 0.7322, 0.6455, 0.5972, 0.4828, 0.5924, 0.6362, 0.5943, 0.6233, 0.5607, 0.5293, 0.5045, 0.4016, 0.4186, 0.5296, 0.5296, 0.5268, 0.5273, 0.5098, 0.6256, 0.6256, 0.627, 0.5233, 0.5014, 0.4531, 0.4481, 0.4949, 0.4012, 0.3438, 0.3092, 0.3164, 0.2543, 0.2513, 0.1505, 0.1486, 0.0466, 0.0282, 0.0282, -0.0891, -0.0589, 0.0171, 0.0285, 0.0285, -0.0974, -0.0512, -0.0787, -0.056, 0.0, -0.0077, 0.0288, 0.0316, 0.022, 0.022, 0.0979, 0.0752, 0.0618, 0.114, 0.2002, 0.2014, 0.2059, 0.3381, 0.4853, 0.3915, 0.4463, 0.5147, 0.5719, 0.5862, 0.6261, 0.6432, 0.6806, 0.731, 0.6439, 0.6251, 0.7471, 0.7888, 0.6869, 0.7393, 0.7393, 0.6479, 0.677, 0.6872, 0.6438, 0.7336, 0.7175, 0.693, 0.5939, 0.6514, 0.6182, 0.5673, 0.5196, 0.4438, 0.4481, 0.4568, 0.5301, 0.5066, 0.5374, 0.504, 0.53, 0.6497, 0.596, 0.6049, 0.5898, 0.6015, 0.5796, 0.6188, 0.6305, 0.7322, 0.6262, 0.6079, 0.549, 0.5451, 0.5451, 0.5405, 0.5596, 0.5074, 0.5521, 0.5446, 0.5617, 0.5389, 0.5078, 0.3609, 0.3783, 0.3572, 0.3415, 0.2837, 0.3375, 0.3719, 0.3512, 0.3385, 0.341, 0.3459, 0.4199, 0.4343, 0.4123, 0.4072, 0.4368, 0.4025, 0.3889, 0.3903, 0.4516, 0.4769, 0.504, 0.5769, 0.5511, 0.5271, 0.5402, 0.6128, 0.6128, 0.6796, 0.7027, 0.7327, 0.7865, 0.8169, 0.8478, 0.875, 0.9609, 1.0406, 1.0859, 1.1601, 1.144, 1.1366, 1.1753, 1.1753, 1.2915, 1.1663, 1.2093, 1.1424, 1.0126, 1.0891, 1.1394, 1.15, 1.1856, 1.3363, 1.3363]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1607032967012179969", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-12-25T15:18:11+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will be destroyed by the competition. The stock will be sub $50 within 6 months.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish TSLA to sub-$50 within 6 months on competitive destruction.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@farzyness $TSLA will be destroyed by the competition. The stock will be sub $50 within 6 months. The beatings shall continue until morale improves.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Once $TSLA isn’t perceived as a risky investment and pathway to $100B Net Income per year becomes unstoppable due to EV adoption and Energy growth, I predict buying pressure to be immense. FED lowering rates and/or recession fears easing will be very large catalysts IMO - NFA", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "farzyness", "ret_m1d": 0.1287809646953435, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.1287809646953435, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12482167159075108, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.11228861037462856, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003959293104592421, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01649235432071494, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03308891531476843, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03308891531476843, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.045516580224715275, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04149242964519462, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012427664909946845, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008403514330426187, "ret_p1w": -0.009165902969624717, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.009165902969624717, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.007645247892973939, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.017490733286778637, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0015206550766507787, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00832483031715392, "ret_p1m": 0.3238312987698213, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.3238312987698213, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.27414574349515575, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.2108964739414172, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04968555527466556, "bench_c_p1m": 0.11293482482840411, "ret_p3m": 0.7452796180127839, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.7452796180127839, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.7036948229568709, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.6299726707513147, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04158479505591295, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11530694726146917, "ret_p6m": 1.3781851061769075, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3781851061769075, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.2292029166361056, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.0735608436312507, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1489821895408019, "bench_c_p6m": 0.3046242625456568, "ret_p1y": 1.3010999684964042, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.3010999684964042, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.0497915499065549, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.8869302798493532, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2513084185898493, "bench_c_p1y": 0.41416968864705095, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.3238312987698213, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.27414574349515575, "alpha_c_stated": -0.2108964739414172, "price_path": [1.4584, 1.4313, 1.2218, 1.2863, 1.2072, 1.1827, 1.0446, 1.0436, 0.9844, 0.9912, 1.0323, 0.8789, 1.0105, 1.0182, 1.0352, 0.8999, 0.9655, 0.9363, 1.0387, 1.059, 1.0632, 1.0946, 1.0856, 1.0882, 0.9705, 0.9735, 0.9016, 0.8064, 0.7534, 0.6278, 0.7481, 0.7962, 0.7502, 0.782, 0.7133, 0.6789, 0.6516, 0.5387, 0.5574, 0.6792, 0.6792, 0.6761, 0.6766, 0.6575, 0.7846, 0.7846, 0.7861, 0.6723, 0.6482, 0.5952, 0.5897, 0.6412, 0.5382, 0.4753, 0.4372, 0.4452, 0.377, 0.3737, 0.2631, 0.261, 0.1489, 0.1288, 0.1288, 0.0, 0.0331, 0.1166, 0.1291, 0.1291, -0.0092, 0.0416, 0.0114, 0.0363, 0.0978, 0.0894, 0.1294, 0.1325, 0.1219, 0.1219, 0.2052, 0.1804, 0.1656, 0.2229, 0.3176, 0.3189, 0.3238, 0.469, 0.6306, 0.5276, 0.5877, 0.6628, 0.7257, 0.7413, 0.7852, 0.8039, 0.845, 0.9003, 0.8047, 0.7841, 0.918, 0.9637, 0.8519, 0.9093, 0.9093, 0.8091, 0.8411, 0.8522, 0.8046, 0.9031, 0.8855, 0.8586, 0.7498, 0.8129, 0.7764, 0.7205, 0.6682, 0.585, 0.5897, 0.5993, 0.6797, 0.654, 0.6877, 0.6511, 0.6797, 0.811, 0.7521, 0.7619, 0.7453, 0.7581, 0.7341, 0.7771, 0.7899, 0.9016, 0.7852, 0.7652, 0.7005, 0.6962, 0.6962, 0.6912, 0.7121, 0.6548, 0.7039, 0.6957, 0.7144, 0.6894, 0.6553, 0.494, 0.5131, 0.4899, 0.4727, 0.4093, 0.4683, 0.506, 0.4833, 0.4694, 0.4721, 0.4775, 0.5588, 0.5746, 0.5504, 0.5448, 0.5773, 0.5397, 0.5247, 0.5263, 0.5936, 0.6214, 0.6511, 0.7312, 0.7027, 0.6764, 0.6908, 0.7706, 0.7706, 0.8438, 0.8692, 0.9021, 0.9612, 0.9946, 1.0285, 1.0584, 1.1527, 1.2401, 1.2899, 1.3713, 1.3537, 1.3456, 1.3881, 1.3881, 1.5156, 1.3782]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1603369730806538240", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-12-15T12:41:47+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The car company that shall not be named will get cut in half again quicker than you can imagine", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Predicts Tesla will be cut in half again very soon; strongly bearish.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@dwight_vk The car company that shall not be named will get cut in half again quicker than you can imagine. @GordonJohnson19 @StanphylCap @DougKass @TommyThornton This is not investment advice. Do your own work.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Not good for Tesla stock price but Elon knows enough to pull out some funds and to have a nest egg for his family and other ventures. That is just good money management.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "dwight_vk", "ret_m1d": -0.005517822840685804, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.005517822840685804, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.030592838212418316, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.022226105948275565, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.025075015371732512, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01670828310758976, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.047187179094365206, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.047187179094365206, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03538089847433468, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.028500315423450995, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01180628062003053, "bench_c_p1d": -0.01868686367091421, "ret_p1w": -0.20498509589752734, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.20498509589752734, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1866041902885236, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.14960123879601328, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01838090560900374, "bench_c_p1w": -0.055383857101514056, "ret_p1m": -0.2236950406080057, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2236950406080057, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.2511567890224461, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2502437969766377, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02746174841444038, "bench_c_p1m": 0.026548756368631965, "ret_p3m": 0.16230098709375662, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.16230098709375662, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1522943841610802, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12737516567621388, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.010006602932676412, "bench_c_p3m": 0.034925821417542746, "ret_p6m": 0.55007291643783, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.55007291643783, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.4374216513475284, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.36192229625623895, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.11265126509030154, "bench_c_p6m": 0.188150620181591, "ret_p1y": 0.4941333453852639, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.4941333453852639, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.3035697788273075, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.2331118790622455, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.19056356655795637, "bench_c_p1y": 0.26102146632301837, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2236950406080057, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.2511567890224461, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2502437969766377, "price_path": [0.9602, 0.9581, 0.9078, 0.8303, 0.7462, 0.7506, 0.7945, 0.8254, 0.7011, 0.6823, 0.5374, 0.582, 0.5273, 0.5103, 0.4148, 0.4141, 0.3731, 0.3778, 0.4062, 0.3001, 0.3912, 0.3965, 0.4083, 0.3146, 0.3601, 0.3398, 0.4107, 0.4247, 0.4276, 0.4494, 0.4431, 0.4449, 0.3635, 0.3656, 0.3158, 0.25, 0.2133, 0.1263, 0.2096, 0.2429, 0.2111, 0.2331, 0.1855, 0.1617, 0.1428, 0.0647, 0.0776, 0.1619, 0.1619, 0.1598, 0.1601, 0.1469, 0.2349, 0.2349, 0.2359, 0.1572, 0.1405, 0.1038, 0.1, 0.1356, 0.0644, 0.0208, -0.0055, 0.0, -0.0472, -0.0495, -0.126, -0.1275, -0.205, -0.2189, -0.2189, -0.308, -0.2852, -0.2274, -0.2187, -0.2187, -0.3144, -0.2793, -0.3002, -0.2829, -0.2404, -0.2462, -0.2185, -0.2163, -0.2237, -0.2237, -0.166, -0.1832, -0.1934, -0.1538, -0.0883, -0.0874, -0.084, 0.0165, 0.1283, 0.057, 0.0986, 0.1506, 0.1941, 0.2049, 0.2352, 0.2482, 0.2767, 0.3149, 0.2487, 0.2345, 0.3271, 0.3588, 0.2814, 0.3212, 0.3212, 0.2518, 0.2739, 0.2816, 0.2487, 0.3169, 0.3047, 0.286, 0.2108, 0.2545, 0.2292, 0.1905, 0.1543, 0.0967, 0.1, 0.1066, 0.1623, 0.1445, 0.1678, 0.1424, 0.1622, 0.2531, 0.2123, 0.2191, 0.2076, 0.2165, 0.1999, 0.2297, 0.2385, 0.3158, 0.2353, 0.2214, 0.1766, 0.1737, 0.1737, 0.1702, 0.1847, 0.145, 0.179, 0.1733, 0.1863, 0.169, 0.1454, 0.0337, 0.047, 0.031, 0.019, -0.0249, 0.016, 0.0421, 0.0264, 0.0167, 0.0186, 0.0224, 0.0786, 0.0896, 0.0728, 0.0689, 0.0914, 0.0654, 0.0551, 0.0561, 0.1027, 0.1219, 0.1425, 0.1979, 0.1782, 0.16, 0.17, 0.2252, 0.2252, 0.2758, 0.2934, 0.3162, 0.3571, 0.3802, 0.4036, 0.4243, 0.4896, 0.5501]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1876695404604952619", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-01-07T18:20:26+00:00", "symbol": "TLT", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Added some $TLT", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses adding TLT by quote-retweeting without additional commentary.", "resolved_tickers": ["TLT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "EXACTLY @LukeGromen @biancoresearch @FerroTV @leadlagreport", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Added some $TLT https://t.co/lSc8oYrsfK", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.011405799547559381, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.011405799547559381, "alpha_spy_m1d": -2.759375688832222e-05, "alpha_c_m1d": -2.759375688832222e-05, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011433393304447703, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011433393304447703, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.001280320915631794, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.001280320915631794, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00018058513509466856, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00018058513509466856, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0014609060507264626, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014609060507264626, "ret_p1w": -0.007332360460802101, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.007332360460802101, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0036084041861995653, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0036084041861995653, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010940764647001666, "bench_c_p1w": -0.010940764647001666, "ret_p1m": 0.0499383748694211, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0499383748694211, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02345317751158138, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.02345317751158138, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.026485197357839718, "bench_c_p1m": 0.026485197357839718, "ret_p3m": 0.09183533644146014, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.09183533644146014, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.23085306590532595, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.23085306590532595, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.1390177294638658, "bench_c_p3m": -0.1390177294638658, "ret_p6m": 0.04137285027900006, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.04137285027900006, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.01898117370403174, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.01898117370403174, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0603540239830318, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0603540239830318, "ret_p1y": 0.07015606722610923, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.07015606722610923, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.11647605180377396, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.11647605180377396, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1866321190298832, "bench_c_p1y": 0.1866321190298832, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0499383748694211, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02345317751158138, "alpha_c_stated": 0.02345317751158138, "price_path": [0.0833, 0.0789, 0.0797, 0.0929, 0.0975, 0.0801, 0.0809, 0.062, 0.063, 0.0602, 0.067, 0.061, 0.0581, 0.0597, 0.0628, 0.0645, 0.0495, 0.0658, 0.0715, 0.0421, 0.0552, 0.0686, 0.0634, 0.0474, 0.0375, 0.0435, 0.0407, 0.0426, 0.0479, 0.0446, 0.0437, 0.0443, 0.0714, 0.0672, 0.0746, 0.0746, 0.0857, 0.0883, 0.0789, 0.0905, 0.0927, 0.0943, 0.0842, 0.0791, 0.0689, 0.056, 0.0452, 0.0483, 0.0508, 0.0377, 0.022, 0.0278, 0.0184, 0.0227, 0.0227, 0.0221, 0.0137, 0.0219, 0.0164, 0.0164, 0.0192, 0.0159, 0.0114, 0.0, 0.0013, 0.0013, -0.0054, -0.0057, -0.0073, 0.0098, 0.013, 0.0148, 0.0148, 0.0239, 0.0185, 0.0106, 0.0151, 0.0271, 0.0264, 0.0243, 0.0282, 0.0214, 0.0297, 0.0329, 0.0499, 0.0495, 0.0427, 0.0395, 0.0329, 0.0189, 0.0358, 0.0413, 0.0413, 0.029, 0.0303, 0.0342, 0.0467, 0.0497, 0.0678, 0.0741, 0.0665, 0.0796, 0.0846, 0.0713, 0.0627, 0.0592, 0.0558, 0.0668, 0.0592, 0.0529, 0.0621, 0.0565, 0.0618, 0.0629, 0.0684, 0.0691, 0.0627, 0.0518, 0.0517, 0.0448, 0.0418, 0.0562, 0.0666, 0.0758, 0.0751, 0.0801, 0.0918, 0.0589, 0.0389, 0.045, 0.0162, 0.0218, 0.029, 0.0327, 0.0384, 0.0293, 0.0293, 0.0113, 0.0169, 0.0268, 0.0376, 0.0453, 0.0519, 0.0607, 0.0521, 0.0468, 0.0354, 0.0296, 0.0331, 0.0374, 0.0259, 0.0274, 0.0178, 0.0137, 0.007, 0.0158, 0.0185, 0.0156, 0.0083, -0.009, -0.0038, -0.0021, -0.0021, 0.0118, 0.0075, 0.0168, 0.0183, 0.0088, 0.0071, 0.0234, 0.0241, 0.0111, 0.0122, 0.0174, 0.0204, 0.0326, 0.0227, 0.0124, 0.0247, 0.0265, 0.0265, 0.0246, 0.0279, 0.0354, 0.0367, 0.0419, 0.0353, 0.0454, 0.048, 0.0414]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1607041926443794433", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-12-25T15:53:47+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will be lucky to make $1.50 EPS in 2023. Pricing and volume growth are collapsing. Backlog has evaporated. All their profits come from China. Auto stocks are lucky to sell on a PE of 10. $50 is being generous. SELL!!!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Short TSLA: EPS collapses to $1.50, not $6; pricing/volume/backlog deteriorating; auto-sector PE of 10 implies ~$50 or lower.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@MarkFerrara12 @farzyness $TSLA will be lucky to make $1.50 EPS in 2023. Pricing and volume growth are collapsing. Backlog has evaporated. All their profits come from China. Auto stocks are lucky to sell on a PE of 10. $50 is being generous. SELL!!!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @farzyness On lowered pricing, lowered margins, and lowered unit volume, still modeling ~$6 of EPS in 2023, which makes $TSLA cheaper than $AAPL, $MSFT and potentially $GOOG on forward basis. What gives you reason to believe it’s going to $50, esp. with Inflation Reduction Act subsidies?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "MarkFerrara12", "ret_m1d": 0.1287809646953435, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.1287809646953435, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12482167159075108, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.11228861037462856, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003959293104592421, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01649235432071494, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03308891531476843, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03308891531476843, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.045516580224715275, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04149242964519462, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012427664909946845, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008403514330426187, "ret_p1w": -0.009165902969624717, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.009165902969624717, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.007645247892973939, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.017490733286778637, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0015206550766507787, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00832483031715392, "ret_p1m": 0.3238312987698213, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.3238312987698213, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.27414574349515575, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.2108964739414172, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04968555527466556, "bench_c_p1m": 0.11293482482840411, "ret_p3m": 0.7452796180127839, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.7452796180127839, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.7036948229568709, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.6299726707513147, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04158479505591295, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11530694726146917, "ret_p6m": 1.3781851061769075, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3781851061769075, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.2292029166361056, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.0735608436312507, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1489821895408019, "bench_c_p6m": 0.3046242625456568, "ret_p1y": 1.3010999684964042, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.3010999684964042, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.0497915499065549, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.8869302798493532, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2513084185898493, "bench_c_p1y": 0.41416968864705095, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.3238312987698213, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.27414574349515575, "alpha_c_stated": -0.2108964739414172, "price_path": [1.4584, 1.4313, 1.2218, 1.2863, 1.2072, 1.1827, 1.0446, 1.0436, 0.9844, 0.9912, 1.0323, 0.8789, 1.0105, 1.0182, 1.0352, 0.8999, 0.9655, 0.9363, 1.0387, 1.059, 1.0632, 1.0946, 1.0856, 1.0882, 0.9705, 0.9735, 0.9016, 0.8064, 0.7534, 0.6278, 0.7481, 0.7962, 0.7502, 0.782, 0.7133, 0.6789, 0.6516, 0.5387, 0.5574, 0.6792, 0.6792, 0.6761, 0.6766, 0.6575, 0.7846, 0.7846, 0.7861, 0.6723, 0.6482, 0.5952, 0.5897, 0.6412, 0.5382, 0.4753, 0.4372, 0.4452, 0.377, 0.3737, 0.2631, 0.261, 0.1489, 0.1288, 0.1288, 0.0, 0.0331, 0.1166, 0.1291, 0.1291, -0.0092, 0.0416, 0.0114, 0.0363, 0.0978, 0.0894, 0.1294, 0.1325, 0.1219, 0.1219, 0.2052, 0.1804, 0.1656, 0.2229, 0.3176, 0.3189, 0.3238, 0.469, 0.6306, 0.5276, 0.5877, 0.6628, 0.7257, 0.7413, 0.7852, 0.8039, 0.845, 0.9003, 0.8047, 0.7841, 0.918, 0.9637, 0.8519, 0.9093, 0.9093, 0.8091, 0.8411, 0.8522, 0.8046, 0.9031, 0.8855, 0.8586, 0.7498, 0.8129, 0.7764, 0.7205, 0.6682, 0.585, 0.5897, 0.5993, 0.6797, 0.654, 0.6877, 0.6511, 0.6797, 0.811, 0.7521, 0.7619, 0.7453, 0.7581, 0.7341, 0.7771, 0.7899, 0.9016, 0.7852, 0.7652, 0.7005, 0.6962, 0.6962, 0.6912, 0.7121, 0.6548, 0.7039, 0.6957, 0.7144, 0.6894, 0.6553, 0.494, 0.5131, 0.4899, 0.4727, 0.4093, 0.4683, 0.506, 0.4833, 0.4694, 0.4721, 0.4775, 0.5588, 0.5746, 0.5504, 0.5448, 0.5773, 0.5397, 0.5247, 0.5263, 0.5936, 0.6214, 0.6511, 0.7312, 0.7027, 0.6764, 0.6908, 0.7706, 0.7706, 0.8438, 0.8692, 0.9021, 0.9612, 0.9946, 1.0285, 1.0584, 1.1527, 1.2401, 1.2899, 1.3713, 1.3537, 1.3456, 1.3881, 1.3881, 1.5156, 1.3782]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1892619189128405390", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-02-20T16:55:52+00:00", "symbol": "KKR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid PE firms KKR, BX, CG, OWL on stretched valuations and poor revisions.", "resolved_tickers": ["KKR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Financials have been strong but the PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID https://t.co/wZidluPMHy\n\n---\n\n$KKR valuation and revisions are poor. https://t.co/6A72F9CODs", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02913418399793466, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02913418399793466, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.024956457091862116, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013567050502243605, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004177726906072543, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015567133495691055, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.01731693747022911, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01731693747022911, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.00021282962637292346, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.004863245856753795, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.017104107843856187, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012453691613475315, "ret_p1w": -0.01746569210466198, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01746569210466198, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.024033102511892057, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012406311088367539, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.041498794616554036, "bench_c_p1w": -0.00505938101629444, "ret_p1m": -0.13415089688411064, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.13415089688411064, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06091221977400818, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09659494724334228, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07323867711010246, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03755594964076836, "ret_p3m": -0.07592117536513487, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07592117536513487, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.050123131988824454, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07857692337463351, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.02579804337631042, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0026557480094986374, "ret_p6m": 0.060485280837544675, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.060485280837544675, "alpha_spy_p6m": -2.5305741581327368e-05, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.03244517321989093, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06045997509596335, "bench_c_p6m": 0.028040107617653742, "ret_p1y": -0.19907749258913787, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.19907749258913787, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.3493431366640143, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.2633069969527544, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15026564407487641, "bench_c_p1y": 0.06422950436361652, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.13415089688411064, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06091221977400818, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09659494724334228, "price_path": [0.1798, 0.1971, 0.1879, 0.1879, 0.209, 0.1851, 0.1721, 0.1698, 0.1657, 0.1729, 0.1309, 0.1269, 0.1683, 0.1561, 0.1456, 0.1589, 0.1226, 0.0612, 0.0654, 0.0955, 0.1056, 0.1326, 0.1326, 0.1321, 0.1124, 0.1015, 0.0979, 0.0979, 0.1074, 0.1285, 0.1189, 0.0883, 0.1004, 0.1004, 0.0461, 0.0485, 0.0663, 0.1171, 0.1375, 0.1696, 0.1696, 0.1929, 0.1989, 0.2273, 0.2287, 0.1966, 0.24, 0.2344, 0.2386, 0.2401, 0.2116, 0.1082, 0.1417, 0.1252, 0.1031, 0.0981, 0.0575, 0.0358, 0.034, 0.0447, 0.0447, 0.045, 0.0291, 0.0, -0.0173, -0.025, -0.0369, -0.0139, -0.0175, 0.0077, -0.0114, -0.1023, -0.0856, -0.1369, -0.1433, -0.1961, -0.1668, -0.15, -0.1922, -0.1579, -0.1402, -0.1526, -0.1339, -0.1326, -0.1342, -0.0935, -0.0919, -0.1123, -0.1264, -0.1463, -0.1408, -0.1242, -0.1014, -0.2378, -0.3104, -0.2751, -0.2976, -0.179, -0.2429, -0.2461, -0.2335, -0.2253, -0.2415, -0.2317, -0.2317, -0.272, -0.2398, -0.2062, -0.1583, -0.1555, -0.1533, -0.1501, -0.1507, -0.1491, -0.131, -0.1469, -0.1553, -0.1363, -0.1176, -0.1224, -0.0679, -0.0554, -0.0395, -0.0648, -0.0628, -0.0659, -0.0759, -0.1234, -0.1201, -0.1277, -0.1277, -0.0999, -0.099, -0.0894, -0.0959, -0.0928, -0.1032, -0.1029, -0.102, -0.0814, -0.0825, -0.0768, -0.0621, -0.0677, -0.0968, -0.0814, -0.0988, -0.0887, -0.0887, -0.0874, -0.0908, -0.0489, -0.0409, -0.0179, -0.0004, -0.0097, -0.0141, 0.0014, 0.0317, 0.0317, 0.0089, 0.0268, 0.0363, 0.0648, 0.05, 0.0379, 0.0214, 0.0648, 0.0987, 0.0867, 0.074, 0.0791, 0.1036, 0.118, 0.1327, 0.1326, 0.124, 0.1198, 0.0911, 0.0611, 0.0803, 0.0619, 0.0761, 0.0584, 0.062, 0.0552, 0.0975, 0.0991, 0.0887, 0.0605]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1892619189128405390", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-02-20T16:55:52+00:00", "symbol": "BX", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid PE firms KKR, BX, CG, OWL on stretched valuations and poor revisions.", "resolved_tickers": ["BX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Financials have been strong but the PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID https://t.co/wZidluPMHy\n\n---\n\n$KKR valuation and revisions are poor. https://t.co/6A72F9CODs", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01799894231887511, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01799894231887511, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.013821215412802568, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0024318088231840562, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004177726906072543, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015567133495691055, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.033678875535143815, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.033678875535143815, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01657476769128763, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0212251839216685, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.017104107843856187, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012453691613475315, "ret_p1w": -0.03971929768651927, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03971929768651927, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.001779496930034763, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03465991667022483, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.041498794616554036, "bench_c_p1w": -0.00505938101629444, "ret_p1m": -0.09524094988431675, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.09524094988431675, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.022002272774214293, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05768500024354839, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07323867711010246, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03755594964076836, "ret_p3m": -0.11399326896628914, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11399326896628914, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08819522558997872, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11664901697578778, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.02579804337631042, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0026557480094986374, "ret_p6m": 0.060895947048709154, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.060895947048709154, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.00043597195274580613, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.03285583943105541, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06045997509596335, "bench_c_p6m": 0.028040107617653742, "ret_p1y": -0.1708707855861945, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.1708707855861945, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.3211364296610709, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.23510028994981103, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15026564407487641, "bench_c_p1y": 0.06422950436361652, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.09524094988431675, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.022002272774214293, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05768500024354839, "price_path": [0.1683, 0.1595, 0.1435, 0.1435, 0.156, 0.1316, 0.1263, 0.1222, 0.1325, 0.1313, 0.1213, 0.1468, 0.164, 0.1513, 0.1399, 0.1401, 0.1078, 0.0387, 0.0219, 0.0335, 0.0417, 0.0629, 0.0629, 0.0675, 0.0527, 0.0408, 0.0431, 0.0431, 0.0511, 0.0642, 0.0574, 0.0366, 0.0525, 0.0525, -0.0027, 0.0029, 0.0243, 0.0595, 0.0691, 0.0886, 0.0886, 0.0981, 0.1057, 0.1223, 0.1297, 0.1042, 0.1228, 0.1215, 0.0755, 0.0715, 0.0499, 0.0335, 0.0578, 0.056, 0.0301, 0.0287, 0.0054, -0.0184, -0.0209, 0.0057, 0.0057, 0.0173, 0.018, 0.0, -0.0337, -0.0417, -0.0407, -0.0271, -0.0397, -0.0167, -0.0328, -0.0804, -0.0724, -0.1115, -0.1144, -0.1497, -0.1572, -0.1425, -0.167, -0.1404, -0.0984, -0.1081, -0.0865, -0.0924, -0.0952, -0.0721, -0.0774, -0.1052, -0.1184, -0.1574, -0.1472, -0.1287, -0.0991, -0.1879, -0.2371, -0.2395, -0.2674, -0.1619, -0.2224, -0.224, -0.204, -0.1852, -0.2106, -0.2045, -0.2045, -0.2665, -0.2379, -0.2251, -0.1791, -0.1894, -0.1792, -0.1795, -0.1907, -0.1804, -0.1557, -0.1637, -0.1767, -0.1635, -0.141, -0.1435, -0.0845, -0.087, -0.0881, -0.0983, -0.0986, -0.1063, -0.114, -0.1552, -0.1587, -0.1636, -0.1636, -0.1441, -0.1496, -0.1467, -0.1474, -0.1471, -0.1459, -0.1474, -0.1536, -0.137, -0.1399, -0.1216, -0.1313, -0.1349, -0.1619, -0.1505, -0.1663, -0.1552, -0.1552, -0.154, -0.1501, -0.1149, -0.1179, -0.0895, -0.0715, -0.0809, -0.0613, -0.0565, -0.0468, -0.0468, -0.06, -0.0393, -0.025, 0.008, -0.0046, 0.0037, -0.0181, 0.0195, 0.0598, 0.0367, 0.0242, 0.0407, 0.0566, 0.0944, 0.0943, 0.0872, 0.0878, 0.0773, 0.0627, 0.047, 0.054, 0.0365, 0.0469, 0.0363, 0.0441, 0.0513, 0.074, 0.0918, 0.0798, 0.0609]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1892619189128405390", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2025-02-20T16:55:52+00:00", "symbol": "CG", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid PE firms KKR, BX, CG, OWL on stretched valuations and poor revisions.", "resolved_tickers": ["CG"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Financials have been strong but the PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID https://t.co/wZidluPMHy\n\n---\n\n$KKR valuation and revisions are poor. https://t.co/6A72F9CODs", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.009613712305383881, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009613712305383881, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.005435985399311338, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.005953421190307173, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004177726906072543, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015567133495691055, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.034842988502482575, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.034842988502482575, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.017738880658626388, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02238929688900726, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.017104107843856187, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012453691613475315, "ret_p1w": -0.06039475771719527, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06039475771719527, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.018895963100641233, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05533537670090083, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.041498794616554036, "bench_c_p1w": -0.00505938101629444, "ret_p1m": -0.14576058344361775, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.14576058344361775, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0725219063335153, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.10820463380284939, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07323867711010246, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03755594964076836, "ret_p3m": -0.08909549106814973, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.08909549106814973, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.06329744769183931, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09175123907764837, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.02579804337631042, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0026557480094986374, "ret_p6m": 0.2453514509666317, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.2453514509666317, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.18489147587066834, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.21731134334897795, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06045997509596335, "bench_c_p6m": 0.028040107617653742, "ret_p1y": 0.1688364705399117, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.1688364705399117, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.018570826465035273, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.10460696617629517, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15026564407487641, "bench_c_p1y": 0.06422950436361652, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.14576058344361775, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0725219063335153, "alpha_c_stated": 0.10820463380284939, "price_path": [0.0458, 0.029, 0.0133, 0.0133, 0.0235, 0.0148, 0.009, 0.0127, 0.0144, 0.0162, 0.014, 0.0073, 0.0538, 0.0204, 0.0121, 0.0144, -0.0044, -0.0585, -0.0573, -0.0344, -0.0358, -0.016, -0.016, -0.0006, -0.0219, -0.0286, -0.0292, -0.0292, -0.0246, -0.0035, 0.0133, -0.0088, 0.0058, 0.0058, -0.0325, -0.0283, -0.0037, 0.0363, 0.0435, 0.0621, 0.0621, 0.0846, 0.0886, 0.0952, 0.0927, 0.0721, 0.095, 0.0834, 0.0827, 0.0798, 0.0417, 0.0033, 0.011, 0.011, 0.0092, -0.0102, -0.0467, -0.0396, -0.0188, -0.0046, -0.0046, 0.0277, 0.0096, 0.0, -0.0348, -0.0432, -0.0536, -0.0397, -0.0604, -0.0352, -0.0656, -0.1278, -0.1065, -0.157, -0.1676, -0.2251, -0.205, -0.1864, -0.216, -0.18, -0.1552, -0.1831, -0.1587, -0.152, -0.1458, -0.1049, -0.0993, -0.1072, -0.1272, -0.1647, -0.1562, -0.1431, -0.1036, -0.2507, -0.3053, -0.2853, -0.3144, -0.2342, -0.2909, -0.2987, -0.2917, -0.2844, -0.3177, -0.3062, -0.3062, -0.3268, -0.3091, -0.2917, -0.2491, -0.2445, -0.2431, -0.2425, -0.252, -0.242, -0.211, -0.216, -0.2263, -0.2267, -0.2013, -0.1862, -0.1169, -0.1101, -0.0892, -0.0902, -0.0821, -0.0659, -0.0891, -0.1449, -0.1336, -0.1367, -0.1367, -0.1002, -0.1078, -0.1053, -0.1185, -0.1209, -0.1172, -0.1207, -0.1178, -0.0975, -0.0916, -0.087, -0.0751, -0.0694, -0.0992, -0.0827, -0.101, -0.0821, -0.0821, -0.0862, -0.0793, -0.0419, -0.0419, -0.0119, -0.0021, 0.0024, 0.0301, 0.0618, 0.0862, 0.0862, 0.0724, 0.0882, 0.109, 0.1408, 0.1379, 0.15, 0.1241, 0.1348, 0.1722, 0.1734, 0.165, 0.1644, 0.1906, 0.2151, 0.2374, 0.2276, 0.2227, 0.2085, 0.1829, 0.1449, 0.1785, 0.172, 0.2266, 0.2007, 0.2136, 0.2169, 0.2629, 0.276, 0.2658, 0.2454]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1892619189128405390", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2025-02-20T16:55:52+00:00", "symbol": "OWL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid PE firms KKR, BX, CG, OWL on stretched valuations and poor revisions.", "resolved_tickers": ["OWL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Financials have been strong but the PE firms like $KKR, BX, CG, OWL ...not so much.....Valuations stretched. AVOID https://t.co/wZidluPMHy\n\n---\n\n$KKR valuation and revisions are poor. https://t.co/6A72F9CODs", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.038528089458413683, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.038528089458413683, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03435036255234114, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02296095596272263, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004177726906072543, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015567133495691055, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04199142522010191, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04199142522010191, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02488731737624572, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.029537733606626593, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.017104107843856187, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012453691613475315, "ret_p1w": -0.08138534861893765, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08138534861893765, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03988655400238361, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.07632596760264321, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.041498794616554036, "bench_c_p1w": -0.00505938101629444, "ret_p1m": -0.10606063181543401, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10606063181543401, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03282195470533156, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06850468217466565, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07323867711010246, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03755594964076836, "ret_p3m": -0.16592734992994507, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.16592734992994507, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.14012930655363465, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1685830979394437, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.02579804337631042, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0026557480094986374, "ret_p6m": -0.15689916577373997, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.15689916577373997, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.21735914086970332, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.1849392733913937, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06045997509596335, "bench_c_p6m": 0.028040107617653742, "ret_p1y": -0.43201204044172736, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.43201204044172736, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.5822776845166038, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.4962415448053439, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15026564407487641, "bench_c_p1y": 0.06422950436361652, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10606063181543401, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03282195470533156, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06850468217466565, "price_path": [0.048, 0.0467, 0.0213, 0.0213, 0.0196, -0.01, -0.0118, 0.0067, 0.0097, 0.014, 0.0037, 0.0076, 0.0634, 0.0548, 0.0471, 0.066, 0.0445, -0.0186, -0.0075, 0.0093, 0.0162, 0.0342, 0.0342, 0.0321, 0.0145, 0.005, -0.0006, -0.0006, 0.0136, 0.0325, 0.008, -0.0272, -0.0014, -0.0014, -0.0311, -0.0393, -0.0311, -0.0156, 0.0054, 0.0432, 0.0432, 0.0527, 0.097, 0.1184, 0.1464, 0.0875, 0.1038, 0.1017, 0.109, 0.1176, 0.0927, 0.0587, 0.072, 0.0643, 0.0123, 0.0205, 0.0123, 0.0011, 0.0106, 0.0286, 0.0286, 0.0372, 0.0385, 0.0, -0.042, -0.0576, -0.0797, -0.058, -0.0814, -0.068, -0.0983, -0.1437, -0.1182, -0.1619, -0.1593, -0.1965, -0.1835, -0.1788, -0.1996, -0.1684, -0.1394, -0.1416, -0.0905, -0.1065, -0.1061, -0.0667, -0.0628, -0.0887, -0.1169, -0.1277, -0.1325, -0.116, -0.084, -0.2247, -0.3117, -0.2896, -0.3104, -0.2121, -0.2558, -0.2636, -0.255, -0.239, -0.2597, -0.2463, -0.2463, -0.2857, -0.2658, -0.2351, -0.2004, -0.1991, -0.1883, -0.1948, -0.1978, -0.2247, -0.2035, -0.2009, -0.2273, -0.2169, -0.1974, -0.2, -0.1498, -0.1355, -0.1252, -0.1541, -0.1467, -0.1502, -0.1659, -0.2062, -0.2018, -0.2001, -0.2001, -0.1804, -0.1777, -0.1791, -0.1821, -0.1878, -0.1799, -0.1668, -0.1672, -0.1567, -0.1598, -0.1655, -0.1607, -0.1585, -0.1813, -0.1734, -0.1865, -0.1826, -0.1826, -0.1808, -0.1869, -0.1633, -0.1668, -0.1598, -0.1484, -0.1589, -0.1585, -0.1506, -0.1432, -0.1432, -0.1545, -0.1524, -0.1489, -0.1418, -0.1721, -0.158, -0.1764, -0.1165, -0.0893, -0.0976, -0.1235, -0.1265, -0.1059, -0.1108, -0.1235, -0.1327, -0.1309, -0.1458, -0.1528, -0.1751, -0.1528, -0.1528, -0.1445, -0.1707, -0.1353, -0.1353, -0.1103, -0.1226, -0.1294, -0.1569]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1906172458584920488", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-03-30T02:31:43+00:00", "symbol": "GC=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold continues to be my biggest position.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Gold is the author's largest current position; ongoing long.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@SaneInWackyWrld Gold continues to be my biggest position. \nAs to the ignorance of other investors; https://t.co/fx1mpErp5J", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Why not just keep in simple and buy #gold? One other observation. There have been only 7 comments on your tweet. Yet every ignorant clown predicting that $TSLA will go to $2,600 a share and $BTC will go the $1M gets thousands of replies.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "SaneInWackyWrld", "ret_m1d": -0.014159842029652925, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.014159842029652925, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0074919132688548995, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0074919132688548995, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006667928760798025, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006667928760798025, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0019782303576065807, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0019782303576065807, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.004802673100817945, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.004802673100817945, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002824442743211364, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002824442743211364, "ret_p1w": -0.05007990025601128, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05007990025601128, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04825938007814645, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04825938007814645, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.09833928033415773, "bench_c_p1w": -0.09833928033415773, "ret_p1m": 0.062191927532247115, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.062191927532247115, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07125543782762689, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07125543782762689, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.009063510295379773, "bench_c_p1m": -0.009063510295379773, "ret_p3m": 0.0646907169544022, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.0646907169544022, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.03235937958916013, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03235937958916013, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09705009654356234, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09705009654356234, "ret_p6m": 0.20240151954527175, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.20240151954527175, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.010004821599545632, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.010004821599545632, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.19239669794572611, "bench_c_p6m": 0.19239669794572611, "ret_p1y": 0.543485693151667, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.543485693151667, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.3507754264068552, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.3507754264068552, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.19271026674481173, "bench_c_p1y": 0.19271026674481173, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.062191927532247115, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07125543782762689, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07125543782762689, "price_path": [-0.1597, -0.1483, -0.155, -0.156, -0.1512, -0.1467, -0.1467, -0.1386, -0.1472, -0.1427, -0.1363, -0.1303, -0.1349, -0.1349, -0.1215, -0.117, -0.1182, -0.1128, -0.122, -0.1144, -0.1178, -0.1044, -0.1027, -0.0979, -0.089, -0.0833, -0.0858, -0.0841, -0.0686, -0.072, -0.071, -0.0619, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0605, -0.06, -0.0595, -0.0604, -0.0553, -0.0677, -0.0663, -0.0806, -0.0863, -0.0743, -0.0662, -0.0643, -0.069, -0.0685, -0.0767, -0.0659, -0.0618, -0.0452, -0.0448, -0.0396, -0.0284, -0.0244, -0.0256, -0.0335, -0.0378, -0.0336, -0.0344, -0.0214, -0.0142, 0.0, -0.002, 0.0001, -0.006, -0.0292, -0.0501, -0.0449, -0.0096, 0.0146, 0.034, 0.0281, 0.0335, 0.0671, 0.0624, 0.0624, 0.0953, 0.0797, 0.0538, 0.0692, 0.0576, 0.0726, 0.0622, 0.0542, 0.0323, 0.0342, 0.065, 0.0949, 0.0785, 0.0572, 0.0649, 0.0349, 0.0393, 0.0174, 0.0337, 0.0212, 0.0343, 0.0536, 0.0614, 0.052, 0.075, 0.075, 0.0568, 0.0544, 0.0606, 0.0537, 0.0817, 0.0721, 0.079, 0.0735, 0.0591, 0.0641, 0.0644, 0.0702, 0.0835, 0.0977, 0.082, 0.0826, 0.0768, 0.0768, 0.0763, 0.0796, 0.0626, 0.0659, 0.0647, 0.0454, 0.0579, 0.0674, 0.0733, 0.0659, 0.0659, 0.0667, 0.0556, 0.0603, 0.0627, 0.0729, 0.069, 0.0645, 0.0698, 0.0675, 0.0703, 0.0867, 0.097, 0.0834, 0.0768, 0.0668, 0.0599, 0.0629, 0.0445, 0.0514, 0.0728, 0.079, 0.0799, 0.0776, 0.0867, 0.0865, 0.0708, 0.0699, 0.0731, 0.0663, 0.0669, 0.0653, 0.0595, 0.0702, 0.0665, 0.0779, 0.0753, 0.0831, 0.0853, 0.0933, 0.1039, 0.1039, 0.13, 0.1388, 0.1338, 0.1489, 0.162, 0.1594, 0.1635, 0.1618, 0.1641, 0.1762, 0.1786, 0.1695, 0.1648, 0.1771, 0.1975, 0.2024]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1862880288663384348", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2024-11-30T15:24:06+00:00", "symbol": "semiconductors", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "only 27% of the semis are above their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Beware.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish semis: only 27% above key moving averages, author warns caution.", "resolved_tickers": ["SMH"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SMH is the primary US semiconductor ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The perspicacious ⁦@daChartLife⁩ observes that only 27% of the semis are above their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Beware. #semis https://t.co/O1zhwEbaX9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.023157240537482915, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.023157240537482915, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.021368120037049243, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.021368120037049243, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0017891205004336719, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0017891205004336719, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0022189404164103532, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0022189404164103532, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0017550981826204293, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0017550981826204293, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00046384223378992395, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00046384223378992395, "ret_p1w": -0.007261812019927372, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.007261812019927372, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.009001297789670626, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009001297789670626, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0017394857697432542, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0017394857697432542, "ret_p1m": -0.01866564615048727, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01866564615048727, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.007140698942975088, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.007140698942975088, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.025806345093462357, "bench_c_p1m": -0.025806345093462357, "ret_p3m": -0.07288482722346823, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07288482722346823, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.04536634189796085, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.04536634189796085, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.02751848532550738, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02751848532550738, "ret_p6m": -0.007319309092352566, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.007319309092352566, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.007103553015451847, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.007103553015451847, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.014422862107804413, "bench_c_p6m": -0.014422862107804413, "ret_p1y": 0.3754971915130103, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.3754971915130103, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.264409401501974, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.264409401501974, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1110877900110363, "bench_c_p1y": 0.1110877900110363, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.01866564615048727, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.007140698942975088, "alpha_c_stated": -0.007140698942975088, "price_path": [-0.0937, -0.0953, -0.1326, -0.113, -0.1046, -0.0584, -0.0564, -0.0442, -0.0568, -0.0571, -0.0678, -0.0274, -0.0402, -0.036, -0.018, -0.0094, 0.0192, -0.0005, -0.0098, -0.0363, -0.0224, -0.0134, -0.0002, 0.0014, 0.0188, 0.0294, 0.0274, 0.0356, 0.0541, -0.0029, -0.0022, 0.015, 0.0147, 0.0201, 0.0154, 0.0046, 0.0088, 0.0205, 0.0135, 0.0365, 0.0113, -0.025, -0.0126, -0.0145, 0.0018, 0.028, 0.0531, 0.0463, 0.0228, 0.0161, -0.001, 0.0013, -0.032, -0.0255, -0.0149, -0.0215, -0.0071, -0.0131, -0.017, -0.026, -0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0232, 0.0, 0.0022, 0.0192, 0.0017, 0.003, -0.0073, -0.0322, -0.0086, -0.0182, 0.0065, 0.0217, 0.0084, -0.0237, -0.0363, -0.0208, 0.0099, 0.0186, 0.0186, 0.0168, 0.0066, -0.0086, -0.0187, -0.0187, -0.008, 0.0207, 0.0545, 0.0294, 0.0221, 0.0221, 0.0016, -0.0087, -0.0054, 0.018, 0.0223, 0.0465, 0.0465, 0.0633, 0.0826, 0.0813, 0.0598, -0.0444, -0.0256, -0.0294, -0.0065, -0.0128, -0.0324, -0.0215, 0.0015, 0.0064, -0.0072, 0.0115, 0.0125, 0.007, 0.0208, 0.0235, 0.0235, 0.0383, 0.0428, 0.0447, 0.013, -0.0136, -0.0346, -0.012, -0.0729, -0.0568, -0.0963, -0.0873, -0.0704, -0.1094, -0.0879, -0.1307, -0.1319, -0.1064, -0.1103, -0.0819, -0.0722, -0.0865, -0.0785, -0.0799, -0.0892, -0.0654, -0.0694, -0.1004, -0.1176, -0.1402, -0.1431, -0.1389, -0.1325, -0.2075, -0.2674, -0.2507, -0.2708, -0.1457, -0.2049, -0.1842, -0.183, -0.1777, -0.2124, -0.2198, -0.2198, -0.2389, -0.2224, -0.194, -0.1532, -0.141, -0.1464, -0.1479, -0.1438, -0.1397, -0.1124, -0.1182, -0.1264, -0.1084, -0.1006, -0.0947, -0.038, -0.0049, 0.0049, 0.0014, -0.0014, -0.0031, -0.005, -0.0215, -0.0242, -0.0378, -0.0378, -0.0073]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1902714465730048242", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-03-20T13:30:54+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Earnings to collapse further in 2025. They will be lucky to make in $1 in EPS as units and pricing fall.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Short TSLA: units and pricing declining, earnings to collapse in 2025 with EPS falling to ~$1.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@MarioNawfal $TSLA sales fell already in 2024. Big competition coming. Earnings to collapse further in 2025. They will be lucky to make in $1 in EPS as units and pricing fall.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "https://t.co/hnumGSBLiF", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "MarioNawfal", "ret_m1d": -0.0016930242350987612, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0016930242350987612, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.004593109348320912, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.004082052096251676, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0029000851132221506, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0023890278611529148, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05269623506518384, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05269623506518384, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.05236634311056254, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.049087363310433174, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0003298919546212975, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0036088717547506644, "ret_p1w": 0.15605693402701637, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.15605693402701637, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.15022855007932834, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.11956332978377238, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005828383947688032, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03649360424324399, "ret_p1m": 0.021628717214770443, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.021628717214770443, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08793678053163045, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07667437908748964, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.06630806331686001, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0550456618727192, "ret_p3m": 0.3389909991484503, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.3389909991484503, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.279153538725879, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2669722984883711, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05983746042257132, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0720187006600792, "ret_p6m": 0.6758656211259251, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.6758656211259251, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.5063719652061978, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.4570203171400571, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.16949365591972732, "bench_c_p6m": 0.218845303985868, "ret_p1y": 0.6874629727642945, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.6874629727642945, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.4739402130188415, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.5124967833560206, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.21352275974545298, "bench_c_p1y": 0.1749661894082739, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.3389909991484503, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.279153538725879, "alpha_c_stated": -0.2669722984883711, "price_path": [0.8226, 0.9567, 0.9567, 0.9222, 0.8271, 0.7667, 0.7093, 0.7093, 0.6054, 0.7372, 0.7398, 0.6692, 0.6716, 0.6716, 0.6708, 0.7071, 0.6776, 0.8125, 0.7515, 0.8052, 0.8052, 0.7949, 0.757, 0.7454, 0.7209, 0.681, 0.685, 0.6469, 0.6942, 0.7125, 0.624, 0.6601, 0.6007, 0.5844, 0.5306, 0.4845, 0.3904, 0.4243, 0.5066, 0.5061, 0.5061, 0.4988, 0.5261, 0.5, 0.4298, 0.399, 0.2816, 0.2308, 0.1934, 0.2401, 0.2048, 0.1514, 0.1813, 0.1151, 0.1118, -0.0597, -0.024, 0.0501, 0.0187, 0.0581, 0.0074, -0.0463, -0.0017, 0.0, 0.0527, 0.1783, 0.2196, 0.1515, 0.1561, 0.1155, 0.0969, 0.1363, 0.1968, 0.1313, 0.0134, -0.0126, -0.0609, 0.1521, 0.0683, 0.0679, 0.0681, 0.0756, 0.0224, 0.0216, 0.0216, -0.0371, 0.0072, 0.0613, 0.0984, 0.2061, 0.21, 0.2361, 0.1943, 0.1873, 0.2157, 0.1862, 0.1655, 0.1691, 0.2055, 0.2624, 0.3476, 0.414, 0.4716, 0.451, 0.4813, 0.4479, 0.4553, 0.4163, 0.4435, 0.4363, 0.4363, 0.536, 0.5106, 0.5171, 0.4664, 0.4505, 0.4572, 0.4054, 0.205, 0.2492, 0.3061, 0.3802, 0.3817, 0.3507, 0.3769, 0.3931, 0.339, 0.3631, 0.3631, 0.3636, 0.4758, 0.4411, 0.3864, 0.3789, 0.3698, 0.3445, 0.2728, 0.336, 0.3348, 0.3348, 0.2441, 0.2605, 0.2523, 0.3116, 0.327, 0.3413, 0.3154, 0.3615, 0.3519, 0.3953, 0.3904, 0.4057, 0.4076, 0.2922, 0.3378, 0.3781, 0.3595, 0.3504, 0.3048, 0.2809, 0.309, 0.3067, 0.3541, 0.364, 0.3953, 0.435, 0.4426, 0.4365, 0.4204, 0.3991, 0.4186, 0.3938, 0.3709, 0.3549, 0.4391, 0.467, 0.4885, 0.4797, 0.4644, 0.4131, 0.4131, 0.3941, 0.4141, 0.4329, 0.485, 0.4662, 0.4686, 0.4721, 0.561, 0.6759]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1878772646617211094", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-01-13T11:54:39+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "remains optimistic thereafter as #Bitcoin will do will as liquidity expands", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "BTC likely to correct short-term, then bullish longer-term as liquidity expands.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Watch the video and you will understand. @crossbordercap has been correctly bullish on $BTC . Given the stellar performance of $BTC he acknowledges a correction is possible (perhaps likely) in the short run but remains optimistic thereafter as #Bitcoin will do will as liquidity expands.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @BobEUnlimited Thought rising yields are bad for gold and bitcoin??", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "francis_sp7935", "ret_m1d": 0.0019565857986967305, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0019565857986967305, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0035047699470807103, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0035047699470807103, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0015481841483839798, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015481841483839798, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.021345722040169157, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.021345722040169157, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01996998546745532, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01996998546745532, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.001375736572713837, "bench_c_p1d": 0.001375736572713837, "ret_p1w": 0.07935269254755806, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07935269254755806, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05150577260541067, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05150577260541067, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.027846919942147386, "bench_c_p1w": 0.027846919942147386, "ret_p1m": 0.013023185843414442, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.013023185843414442, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02811949557223592, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.02811949557223592, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04114268141565036, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04114268141565036, "ret_p3m": -0.1575426419735636, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1575426419735636, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.06254282082786033, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.06254282082786033, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.09499982114570327, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09499982114570327, "ret_p6m": 0.15271139346914797, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.15271139346914797, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.07934322536960026, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.07934322536960026, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07336816809954771, "bench_c_p6m": 0.07336816809954771, "ret_p1y": -0.07414254204064019, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.07414254204064019, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.2608292688628585, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.2608292688628585, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.18668672682221832, "bench_c_p1y": 0.18668672682221832, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.013023185843414442, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02811949557223592, "alpha_c_stated": -0.02811949557223592, "price_path": [-0.2846, -0.2869, -0.2761, -0.2872, -0.2873, -0.2971, -0.2788, -0.2949, -0.2604, -0.2306, -0.2346, -0.2571, -0.2649, -0.2825, -0.2662, -0.1997, -0.1969, -0.1901, -0.0615, -0.0694, -0.0416, -0.0769, -0.0365, -0.042, -0.023, -0.0019, 0.0422, 0.0474, -0.015, -0.0268, 0.0153, 0.012, 0.0312, 0.0143, 0.0157, 0.045, 0.022, 0.0572, 0.0309, 0.0228, 0.0704, 0.0585, 0.0735, 0.1218, 0.123, 0.0585, 0.0315, 0.0343, 0.0018, 0.044, 0.0506, 0.0135, -0.0037, -0.0198, -0.0115, -0.001, 0.0251, 0.038, 0.08, 0.0255, 0.0056, -0.0215, 0.002, 0.0, 0.0213, 0.0634, 0.0554, 0.1052, 0.0794, 0.123, 0.0967, 0.0999, 0.109, 0.0801, 0.0721, 0.0972, 0.1081, 0.0835, 0.0729, 0.0355, 0.0222, 0.022, 0.0213, 0.0309, 0.013, 0.0356, 0.0223, 0.0317, 0.0133, 0.0108, 0.0224, 0.0404, 0.017, -0.0328, -0.0612, -0.1076, -0.1038, -0.1073, -0.0894, -0.0772, -0.0412, -0.0482, -0.0822, -0.1691, -0.1233, -0.1142, -0.1423, -0.1116, -0.1105, -0.1248, -0.0811, -0.1095, -0.1108, -0.0742, -0.0745, -0.0806, -0.0777, -0.1075, -0.1266, -0.0989, -0.1273, -0.1208, -0.1129, -0.1617, -0.193, -0.1264, -0.1575, -0.1176, -0.1055, -0.1148, -0.1109, -0.1018, -0.1065, -0.074, -0.0114, -0.0086, -0.0061, 0.0022, 0.0049, -0.0025, -0.0033, 0.0209, 0.0253, 0.0024, 0.0242, 0.0266, 0.0923, 0.0894, 0.0878, 0.1021, 0.0955, 0.0976, 0.0949, 0.1173, 0.1299, 0.1604, 0.1815, 0.1351, 0.1579, 0.1532, 0.1406, 0.1177, 0.1003, 0.1202, 0.1155, 0.1081, 0.0747, 0.1045, 0.1669, 0.1665, 0.1499, 0.1207, 0.1225, 0.1299, 0.1067, 0.1097, 0.1076, 0.093, 0.117, 0.122, 0.1359, 0.1317, 0.133, 0.1335, 0.1183, 0.1517, 0.1601, 0.143, 0.1458, 0.1527]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1886807396384641472", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-02-04T16:01:53+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "fiat currency is in a bear market as money is being devalued. QQQ has made zero progress vs $GLD over the last four years", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author argues QQQ is a money illusion — fiat devaluation means gold (GLD) outperforms; implicitly bearish QQQ in real terms, bullish GLD.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "is $QQQ in a bull market? https://t.co/ZPXE9VKZjk\n\n---\n\nNo, instead fiat currency is in a bear market as money is being devalued. QQQ has made zero progress vs $GLD over the last four years! MONEY ILLUSION! https://t.co/Fubt96IqKd", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009752371651785663, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009752371651785663, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003088704898876582, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.003088704898876582, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006663666752909081, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006663666752909081, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006209542410714253, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.006209542410714253, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.002155119766193314, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.002155119766193314, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004054422644520939, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004054422644520939, "ret_p1w": 0.018628627232142758, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.018628627232142758, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.012762805493042872, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012762805493042872, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005865821739099886, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005865821739099886, "ret_p1m": 0.027123790922618962, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.027123790922618962, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05823159676423917, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05823159676423917, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031107805841620206, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031107805841620206, "ret_p3m": 0.13516194661458325, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.13516194661458325, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1905230442116399, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1905230442116399, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.05536109759705665, "bench_c_p3m": -0.05536109759705665, "ret_p6m": 0.14651425316220235, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14651425316220235, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.08591114670405231, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.08591114670405231, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.060603106458150036, "bench_c_p6m": 0.060603106458150036, "ret_p1y": 0.7211047944568452, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.7211047944568452, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.5627566988243813, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.5627566988243813, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15834809563246388, "bench_c_p1y": 0.15834809563246388, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.027123790922618962, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05823159676423917, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05823159676423917, "price_path": [-0.049, -0.0554, -0.0776, -0.0855, -0.0947, -0.0971, -0.0987, -0.0816, -0.0733, -0.0681, -0.0603, -0.0482, -0.0763, -0.0745, -0.0724, -0.0724, -0.0644, -0.0726, -0.0707, -0.0679, -0.0748, -0.0745, -0.0653, -0.053, -0.044, -0.058, -0.0694, -0.0671, -0.0707, -0.0885, -0.0872, -0.0777, -0.0821, -0.0802, -0.0802, -0.074, -0.0804, -0.0833, -0.0776, -0.0776, -0.0651, -0.0724, -0.0736, -0.0683, -0.0634, -0.0634, -0.0544, -0.0638, -0.0589, -0.0519, -0.0453, -0.0504, -0.0504, -0.0357, -0.0307, -0.0321, -0.0261, -0.0362, -0.0279, -0.0316, -0.017, -0.015, -0.0098, 0.0, 0.0062, 0.0035, 0.0053, 0.0224, 0.0186, 0.0197, 0.0298, 0.0144, 0.0144, 0.0312, 0.0318, 0.0323, 0.0314, 0.037, 0.0233, 0.0249, 0.0093, 0.0029, 0.0162, 0.025, 0.0271, 0.0219, 0.0224, 0.0135, 0.0254, 0.0298, 0.0481, 0.0485, 0.0542, 0.0665, 0.0709, 0.0695, 0.0609, 0.0562, 0.0608, 0.06, 0.0742, 0.0821, 0.0977, 0.0955, 0.0978, 0.0911, 0.0656, 0.0427, 0.0484, 0.0872, 0.1137, 0.135, 0.1285, 0.1344, 0.1713, 0.1662, 0.1662, 0.2022, 0.1852, 0.1568, 0.1736, 0.1609, 0.1774, 0.1659, 0.1572, 0.1332, 0.1352, 0.1691, 0.2018, 0.1838, 0.1605, 0.1689, 0.136, 0.1408, 0.1168, 0.1346, 0.1209, 0.1354, 0.1565, 0.165, 0.1547, 0.18, 0.18, 0.16, 0.1574, 0.1642, 0.1566, 0.1873, 0.1768, 0.1844, 0.1784, 0.1626, 0.1681, 0.1684, 0.1747, 0.1893, 0.2049, 0.1877, 0.1883, 0.1819, 0.1819, 0.1814, 0.1851, 0.1664, 0.17, 0.1687, 0.1475, 0.1613, 0.1716, 0.1781, 0.1701, 0.1701, 0.1709, 0.1587, 0.1639, 0.1665, 0.1777, 0.1734, 0.1685, 0.1743, 0.1718, 0.1748, 0.1929, 0.2042, 0.1893, 0.182, 0.171, 0.1635, 0.1667, 0.1465]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1603773158330343425", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-12-16T15:24:52+00:00", "symbol": "ARKK", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The $ARKK continues to sink", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish ARKK; expects it to keep declining.", "resolved_tickers": ["ARKK"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TURN OUT THE LIGHTS ⁦@CathieDWood⁩ . The $ARKK continues to sink.  https://t.co/3VfvlkdqPn", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0012025263461749036, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0012025263461749036, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.013149860546434966, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.013149860546434966, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011947334200260062, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011947334200260062, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.031268691894662526, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.031268691894662526, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.022788925884941524, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.022788925884941524, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008479766009721001, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008479766009721001, "ret_p1w": -0.0688514566551588, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0688514566551588, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06791238779310671, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06791238779310671, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0009390688620520837, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0009390688620520837, "ret_p1m": 0.08208069208525326, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08208069208525326, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04234351478452214, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04234351478452214, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03973717730073112, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03973717730073112, "ret_p3m": 0.14461819152435185, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.14461819152435185, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.12893706556771245, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12893706556771245, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.015681125956639397, "bench_c_p3m": 0.015681125956639397, "ret_p6m": 0.3012628030081894, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.3012628030081894, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.16510364711592995, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.16510364711592995, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13615915589225946, "bench_c_p6m": 0.13615915589225946, "ret_p1y": 0.46309326599124123, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.46309326599124123, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.2585431330210224, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.2585431330210224, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.20455013297021885, "bench_c_p1y": 0.20455013297021885, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.08208069208525326, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04234351478452214, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04234351478452214, "price_path": [0.2459, 0.2129, 0.1609, 0.1374, 0.1254, 0.1488, 0.2023, 0.1365, 0.1344, 0.1395, 0.2264, 0.2038, 0.2078, 0.1284, 0.0914, 0.0719, 0.086, 0.0836, 0.0219, 0.0938, 0.1115, 0.0637, 0.0598, 0.0788, 0.0652, 0.1368, 0.1392, 0.1386, 0.1693, 0.1509, 0.1512, 0.0956, 0.0884, 0.0589, 0.052, 0.0478, -0.0207, 0.1215, 0.2147, 0.1699, 0.2017, 0.1398, 0.1161, 0.0992, 0.0583, 0.0616, 0.092, 0.092, 0.0824, 0.052, 0.0463, 0.1269, 0.1395, 0.1473, 0.0845, 0.0409, 0.0328, 0.0571, 0.0418, 0.0616, 0.061, 0.0502, -0.0012, 0.0, -0.0313, -0.0328, -0.0165, -0.0499, -0.0689, -0.0689, -0.1046, -0.1088, -0.0628, -0.0607, -0.0607, -0.0842, -0.0445, -0.0673, -0.0568, -0.0135, 0.0108, 0.0451, 0.067, 0.0821, 0.0821, 0.1137, 0.0809, 0.046, 0.0974, 0.1449, 0.1269, 0.1278, 0.1506, 0.2144, 0.1578, 0.2005, 0.2535, 0.3352, 0.2883, 0.27, 0.2922, 0.255, 0.2177, 0.1771, 0.1972, 0.2273, 0.2995, 0.2634, 0.2586, 0.2586, 0.1819, 0.2108, 0.1924, 0.1557, 0.1672, 0.1912, 0.1636, 0.178, 0.2165, 0.1912, 0.1714, 0.1699, 0.1212, 0.083, 0.1118, 0.1356, 0.1446, 0.1798, 0.163, 0.1491, 0.2129, 0.1542, 0.1365, 0.1344, 0.1353, 0.1182, 0.1603, 0.1569, 0.2129, 0.19, 0.1837, 0.1416, 0.1597, 0.1597, 0.1584, 0.1657, 0.132, 0.1774, 0.1663, 0.1717, 0.1693, 0.1684, 0.1242, 0.1314, 0.1161, 0.0797, 0.0589, 0.0734, 0.08, 0.0746, 0.0493, 0.0451, 0.0746, 0.1242, 0.1371, 0.15, 0.1663, 0.1684, 0.1329, 0.1597, 0.1311, 0.16, 0.1762, 0.1636, 0.2201, 0.1936, 0.1864, 0.1539, 0.1756, 0.1756, 0.1969, 0.2174, 0.236, 0.2514, 0.2646, 0.2832, 0.2703, 0.2832, 0.2781, 0.3013]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1880675606511370551", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-01-18T17:56:20+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Liquidity driven assets will benefit the most. $GLD $BTC and various equities", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Liquidity expansion from debt refinancing will drive GLD and BTC higher per Michael Howell's framework.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "If this is true… https://t.co/Gn5lL4oF3e\n\n---\n\nAnd with trillions of debt needing to be refinanced, more debt requires more liquidity. @biancoresearch\n\n---\n\nThen Michael Howell will continue to be right. Liquidity driven assets will benefit the most. $GLD $BTC and various equities. @crossbordercap\n\n---\n\nPlease watch and subscribe to our channel.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.015249083616691639, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.015249083616691639, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.006178629398082669, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.006178629398082669, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00907045421860897, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00907045421860897, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005135652699768123, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.005135652699768123, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00048588563221985126, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00048588563221985126, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005621538331987974, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005621538331987974, "ret_p1w": 0.008098557079070146, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.008098557079070146, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.005660752192610197, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.005660752192610197, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002437804886459949, "bench_c_p1w": 0.002437804886459949, "ret_p1m": 0.07000355895740884, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07000355895740884, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05362010185339661, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05362010185339661, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.016383457104012233, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016383457104012233, "ret_p3m": 0.20933903216612704, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20933903216612704, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.333800496144088, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.333800496144088, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.12446146397796098, "bench_c_p3m": -0.12446146397796098, "ret_p6m": 0.21779324386429466, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.21779324386429466, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.17650518192278253, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.17650518192278253, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.04128806194151213, "bench_c_p6m": 0.04128806194151213, "ret_p1y": 0.6256073254724419, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.6256073254724419, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.46880925109226723, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.46880925109226723, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15679807438017468, "bench_c_p1y": 0.15679807438017468, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07000355895740884, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05362010185339661, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05362010185339661, "price_path": [-0.0013, 0.0008, 0.0008, 0.0117, 0.0173, 0.0015, -0.0026, -0.0012, 0.0011, -0.0294, -0.0137, -0.0204, -0.0434, -0.0517, -0.0612, -0.0637, -0.0653, -0.0476, -0.039, -0.0336, -0.0256, -0.013, -0.0421, -0.0402, -0.0381, -0.0381, -0.0298, -0.0383, -0.0363, -0.0334, -0.0406, -0.0402, -0.0307, -0.0179, -0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0349, -0.0326, -0.0363, -0.0548, -0.0535, -0.0436, -0.0481, -0.0462, -0.0462, -0.0397, -0.0463, -0.0494, -0.0435, -0.0435, -0.0305, -0.0381, -0.0393, -0.0339, -0.0287, -0.0287, -0.0194, -0.0292, -0.0241, -0.0168, -0.01, -0.0152, -0.0152, 0.0, 0.0051, 0.0037, 0.01, -0.0006, 0.0081, 0.0042, 0.0194, 0.0215, 0.0269, 0.037, 0.0435, 0.0407, 0.0425, 0.0602, 0.0563, 0.0574, 0.0679, 0.052, 0.052, 0.0694, 0.07, 0.0706, 0.0696, 0.0754, 0.0612, 0.0628, 0.0466, 0.0401, 0.0538, 0.0629, 0.0651, 0.0597, 0.0603, 0.051, 0.0633, 0.0679, 0.0869, 0.0873, 0.0932, 0.106, 0.1105, 0.1091, 0.1002, 0.0953, 0.1001, 0.0992, 0.1139, 0.1222, 0.1383, 0.1361, 0.1384, 0.1315, 0.105, 0.0813, 0.0872, 0.1274, 0.1549, 0.177, 0.1703, 0.1764, 0.2147, 0.2093, 0.2093, 0.2468, 0.2291, 0.1996, 0.217, 0.2038, 0.221, 0.2091, 0.2001, 0.1751, 0.1772, 0.2123, 0.2463, 0.2276, 0.2035, 0.2122, 0.178, 0.183, 0.1581, 0.1766, 0.1624, 0.1774, 0.1993, 0.2082, 0.1974, 0.2237, 0.2237, 0.2029, 0.2002, 0.2073, 0.1994, 0.2313, 0.2204, 0.2282, 0.222, 0.2056, 0.2113, 0.2117, 0.2182, 0.2334, 0.2495, 0.2317, 0.2323, 0.2257, 0.2257, 0.2252, 0.2289, 0.2096, 0.2133, 0.2119, 0.19, 0.2042, 0.215, 0.2217, 0.2134, 0.2134, 0.2143, 0.2016, 0.207, 0.2097, 0.2213, 0.2168, 0.2117, 0.2178]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1880675606511370551", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-01-18T17:56:20+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "flipped_to_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Liquidity driven assets will benefit the most. $GLD $BTC and various equities", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Liquidity expansion from debt refinancing will drive GLD and BTC higher per Michael Howell's framework.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "If this is true… https://t.co/Gn5lL4oF3e\n\n---\n\nAnd with trillions of debt needing to be refinanced, more debt requires more liquidity. @biancoresearch\n\n---\n\nThen Michael Howell will continue to be right. Liquidity driven assets will benefit the most. $GLD $BTC and various equities. @crossbordercap\n\n---\n\nPlease watch and subscribe to our channel.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.023970348594243962, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.023970348594243962, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03304080281285293, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03304080281285293, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00907045421860897, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00907045421860897, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.040479676535688514, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.040479676535688514, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03485813820370054, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03485813820370054, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005621538331987974, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005621538331987974, "ret_p1w": 0.0006961944712924328, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0006961944712924328, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.001741610415167516, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.001741610415167516, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002437804886459949, "bench_c_p1w": 0.002437804886459949, "ret_p1m": -0.06349077620820676, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.06349077620820676, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.07987423331221899, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07987423331221899, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.016383457104012233, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016383457104012233, "ret_p3m": -0.1678246806032685, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1678246806032685, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.04336321662530751, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.04336321662530751, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.12446146397796098, "bench_c_p3m": -0.12446146397796098, "ret_p6m": 0.15448969619163777, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.15448969619163777, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.11320163425012564, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11320163425012564, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.04128806194151213, "bench_c_p6m": 0.04128806194151213, "ret_p1y": -0.10496921726865549, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.10496921726865549, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.26176729164883017, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.26176729164883017, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15679807438017468, "bench_c_p1y": 0.15679807438017468, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.06349077620820676, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.07987423331221899, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07987423331221899, "price_path": [-0.3488, -0.3319, -0.3467, -0.3147, -0.2872, -0.2909, -0.3117, -0.3189, -0.3353, -0.3201, -0.2586, -0.256, -0.2497, -0.1305, -0.1378, -0.1121, -0.1447, -0.1073, -0.1125, -0.0948, -0.0753, -0.0344, -0.0296, -0.0874, -0.0983, -0.0593, -0.0624, -0.0447, -0.0603, -0.059, -0.0318, -0.0532, -0.0205, -0.0449, -0.0524, -0.0083, -0.0193, -0.0055, 0.0393, 0.0404, -0.0194, -0.0444, -0.0418, -0.0719, -0.0327, -0.0266, -0.061, -0.077, -0.0919, -0.0842, -0.0745, -0.0503, -0.0383, 0.0006, -0.0499, -0.0684, -0.0934, -0.0717, -0.0735, -0.0537, -0.0148, -0.0222, 0.024, 0.0, 0.0405, 0.016, 0.0191, 0.0275, 0.0007, -0.0067, 0.0165, 0.0266, 0.0038, -0.006, -0.0406, -0.0529, -0.0532, -0.0538, -0.0449, -0.0615, -0.0405, -0.0529, -0.0442, -0.0612, -0.0635, -0.0527, -0.0361, -0.0577, -0.1039, -0.1302, -0.1732, -0.1697, -0.1729, -0.1564, -0.145, -0.1117, -0.1182, -0.1497, -0.2302, -0.1878, -0.1793, -0.2054, -0.1769, -0.1759, -0.1892, -0.1486, -0.175, -0.1762, -0.1423, -0.1426, -0.1482, -0.1455, -0.1731, -0.1908, -0.1651, -0.1914, -0.1854, -0.1781, -0.2233, -0.2524, -0.1906, -0.2195, -0.1824, -0.1713, -0.1798, -0.1763, -0.1678, -0.1722, -0.1421, -0.0841, -0.0815, -0.0791, -0.0715, -0.069, -0.0758, -0.0765, -0.0542, -0.0501, -0.0712, -0.0511, -0.0489, 0.012, 0.0094, 0.0078, 0.0211, 0.0149, 0.0169, 0.0144, 0.0352, 0.0468, 0.0751, 0.0947, 0.0517, 0.0728, 0.0684, 0.0567, 0.0355, 0.0194, 0.0379, 0.0335, 0.0266, -0.0043, 0.0233, 0.0811, 0.0808, 0.0654, 0.0384, 0.0399, 0.0469, 0.0253, 0.0281, 0.0261, 0.0127, 0.0349, 0.0395, 0.0524, 0.0485, 0.0497, 0.0502, 0.0361, 0.0671, 0.0748, 0.059, 0.0616, 0.068, 0.0913, 0.1369, 0.1519, 0.1748, 0.1545]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1878772417306255466", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-01-13T11:53:44+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "remains optimistic thereafter as #Bitcoin will do will as liquidity expands", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bullish BTC medium-term as liquidity expands; acknowledges short-run correction possible but overall remains long.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Watch the video and you will understand. @crossbordercap has been correctly bullish on $BTC . Given the stellar performance of $BTC he acknowledges a correction is possible (perhaps likely) in the short run but remains optimistic thereafter as #Bitcoin will do will as liquidity expands.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @adamtaggart @crossbordercap #Bitcoin is down almost 6% over the last month, so no soaring as of late. https://t.co/Kf0a23Ynyq", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Tryng2lookahead", "ret_m1d": 0.0019565857986967305, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0019565857986967305, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0035047699470807103, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0035047699470807103, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0015481841483839798, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015481841483839798, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.021345722040169157, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.021345722040169157, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01996998546745532, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01996998546745532, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.001375736572713837, "bench_c_p1d": 0.001375736572713837, "ret_p1w": 0.07935269254755806, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07935269254755806, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05150577260541067, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05150577260541067, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.027846919942147386, "bench_c_p1w": 0.027846919942147386, "ret_p1m": 0.013023185843414442, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.013023185843414442, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02811949557223592, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.02811949557223592, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04114268141565036, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04114268141565036, "ret_p3m": -0.1575426419735636, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1575426419735636, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.06254282082786033, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.06254282082786033, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.09499982114570327, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09499982114570327, "ret_p6m": 0.15271139346914797, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.15271139346914797, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.07934322536960026, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.07934322536960026, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07336816809954771, "bench_c_p6m": 0.07336816809954771, "ret_p1y": -0.07414254204064019, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.07414254204064019, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.2608292688628585, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.2608292688628585, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.18668672682221832, "bench_c_p1y": 0.18668672682221832, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.013023185843414442, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02811949557223592, "alpha_c_stated": -0.02811949557223592, "price_path": [-0.2846, -0.2869, -0.2761, -0.2872, -0.2873, -0.2971, -0.2788, -0.2949, -0.2604, -0.2306, -0.2346, -0.2571, -0.2649, -0.2825, -0.2662, -0.1997, -0.1969, -0.1901, -0.0615, -0.0694, -0.0416, -0.0769, -0.0365, -0.042, -0.023, -0.0019, 0.0422, 0.0474, -0.015, -0.0268, 0.0153, 0.012, 0.0312, 0.0143, 0.0157, 0.045, 0.022, 0.0572, 0.0309, 0.0228, 0.0704, 0.0585, 0.0735, 0.1218, 0.123, 0.0585, 0.0315, 0.0343, 0.0018, 0.044, 0.0506, 0.0135, -0.0037, -0.0198, -0.0115, -0.001, 0.0251, 0.038, 0.08, 0.0255, 0.0056, -0.0215, 0.002, 0.0, 0.0213, 0.0634, 0.0554, 0.1052, 0.0794, 0.123, 0.0967, 0.0999, 0.109, 0.0801, 0.0721, 0.0972, 0.1081, 0.0835, 0.0729, 0.0355, 0.0222, 0.022, 0.0213, 0.0309, 0.013, 0.0356, 0.0223, 0.0317, 0.0133, 0.0108, 0.0224, 0.0404, 0.017, -0.0328, -0.0612, -0.1076, -0.1038, -0.1073, -0.0894, -0.0772, -0.0412, -0.0482, -0.0822, -0.1691, -0.1233, -0.1142, -0.1423, -0.1116, -0.1105, -0.1248, -0.0811, -0.1095, -0.1108, -0.0742, -0.0745, -0.0806, -0.0777, -0.1075, -0.1266, -0.0989, -0.1273, -0.1208, -0.1129, -0.1617, -0.193, -0.1264, -0.1575, -0.1176, -0.1055, -0.1148, -0.1109, -0.1018, -0.1065, -0.074, -0.0114, -0.0086, -0.0061, 0.0022, 0.0049, -0.0025, -0.0033, 0.0209, 0.0253, 0.0024, 0.0242, 0.0266, 0.0923, 0.0894, 0.0878, 0.1021, 0.0955, 0.0976, 0.0949, 0.1173, 0.1299, 0.1604, 0.1815, 0.1351, 0.1579, 0.1532, 0.1406, 0.1177, 0.1003, 0.1202, 0.1155, 0.1081, 0.0747, 0.1045, 0.1669, 0.1665, 0.1499, 0.1207, 0.1225, 0.1299, 0.1067, 0.1097, 0.1076, 0.093, 0.117, 0.122, 0.1359, 0.1317, 0.133, 0.1335, 0.1183, 0.1517, 0.1601, 0.143, 0.1458, 0.1527]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1898132125695508957", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-03-07T22:02:19+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$MSTR should be sub $200", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish MSTR; author argues it should trade below $200 despite bullish catalysts.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@WilliamNextLev1 It is indeed astonishing.  $MSTR should be sub $200.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "It really is astonishing that $MSTR sits in the $200s after:\n\n- US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve\n- inclusion into $QQQ\n- Strategy owning 500,000 Bitcoin\n- most pro-crypto govt in history elected to office.\n\nOne thing is for sure, there are no experts in this group, no \"quants\"...", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "WilliamNextLev1", "ret_m1d": 0.2002339931785364, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.2002339931785364, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.1728695066342003, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.1728695066342003, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.027364486544336097, "bench_c_m1d": 0.027364486544336097, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.08910432433959525, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.08910432433959525, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0974172145963762, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0974172145963762, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008312890256780947, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008312890256780947, "ret_p1w": 0.2298657740590897, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.2298657740590897, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.21814588894785092, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.21814588894785092, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011719885111238781, "bench_c_p1w": 0.011719885111238781, "ret_p1m": -0.0055168107186375215, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0055168107186375215, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10616484606093335, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10616484606093335, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.11168165677957087, "bench_c_p1m": -0.11168165677957087, "ret_p3m": 0.5413131690547146, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.5413131690547146, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.48020863605166, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.48020863605166, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.06110453300305463, "bench_c_p3m": 0.06110453300305463, "ret_p6m": 0.4277593890464382, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.4277593890464382, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.27878063478506454, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.27878063478506454, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.14897875426137364, "bench_c_p6m": 0.14897875426137364, "ret_p1y": -0.43306728183940113, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.43306728183940113, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.6840747069065555, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.6840747069065555, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.25100742506715434, "bench_c_p1y": 0.25100742506715434, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0055168107186375215, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.10616484606093335, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10616484606093335, "price_path": [0.7194, 0.6391, 0.708, 0.7073, 0.615, 0.4613, 0.3644, 0.5221, 0.3885, 0.497, 0.497, 0.4254, 0.3792, 0.2662, 0.2104, 0.2104, 0.2539, 0.4196, 0.5844, 0.427, 0.3863, 0.3863, 0.3705, 0.3725, 0.4301, 0.5072, 0.5338, 0.6571, 0.6571, 0.6262, 0.5769, 0.5594, 0.4781, 0.4541, 0.404, 0.4262, 0.4214, 0.3992, 0.4506, 0.4557, 0.4072, 0.3602, 0.369, 0.3985, 0.3351, 0.3659, 0.358, 0.4115, 0.4115, 0.3958, 0.3318, 0.3538, 0.2525, 0.1818, 0.047, 0.1003, 0.0033, 0.0675, 0.0487, 0.15, 0.2895, 0.271, 0.2002, 0.0, 0.0891, 0.0973, 0.1003, 0.2433, 0.2299, 0.1836, 0.2715, 0.2625, 0.2705, 0.4031, 0.4286, 0.3763, 0.3566, 0.2096, 0.2048, 0.279, 0.3062, 0.1798, 0.2271, 0.1207, -0.0055, 0.2407, 0.1382, 0.2537, 0.3017, 0.2986, 0.3025, 0.3257, 0.3257, 0.328, 0.4337, 0.4449, 0.4642, 0.541, 0.5432, 0.5942, 0.5886, 0.5949, 0.6482, 0.6155, 0.6116, 0.6403, 0.7319, 0.7387, 0.6922, 0.7621, 0.7418, 0.6593, 0.6709, 0.7278, 0.7425, 0.683, 0.6695, 0.5443, 0.5443, 0.5556, 0.5223, 0.549, 0.5424, 0.5559, 0.6192, 0.5802, 0.5413, 0.5651, 0.6388, 0.6349, 0.6179, 0.5872, 0.6002, 0.5976, 0.568, 0.5423, 0.5423, 0.5451, 0.5346, 0.5757, 0.6244, 0.6151, 0.6044, 0.6894, 0.5602, 0.6813, 0.6884, 0.6884, 0.6537, 0.659, 0.7362, 0.7626, 0.8163, 0.885, 0.8486, 0.9054, 0.8863, 0.7688, 0.7816, 0.7821, 0.7247, 0.7341, 0.6964, 0.6876, 0.6494, 0.651, 0.6795, 0.5323, 0.6268, 0.5692, 0.6024, 0.6802, 0.6514, 0.6728, 0.6483, 0.6295, 0.5587, 0.531, 0.5196, 0.4067, 0.4393, 0.4109, 0.4968, 0.4344, 0.4685, 0.4296, 0.4161, 0.3976, 0.3976, 0.4278]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1886821040149684566", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-02-04T16:56:06+00:00", "symbol": "RSP", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the chart of $RSP vs $GLD has been moving from the upper left to the lower right. I expect this to continue", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish RSP vs GLD: expects the RSP/GLD ratio to keep declining (money illusion theme — equities losing to gold in real terms).", "resolved_tickers": ["RSP"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Equal weighted S&P $RSP in American pesos. https://t.co/6oiJIeOiYQ\n\n---\n\nAlternatively, the chart of $RSP vs $GLD has been moving from the upper left to the lower right. I expect this to continue. Again, money illusion! https://t.co/RlUaPR0orM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0012189930512106484, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0012189930512106484, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.005444673701698433, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.005444673701698433, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006663666752909081, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006663666752909081, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004876232358442367, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004876232358442367, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0008218097139214287, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0008218097139214287, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004054422644520939, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004054422644520939, "ret_p1w": 0.0015513826340014525, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0015513826340014525, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.004314439105098433, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.004314439105098433, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005865821739099886, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005865821739099886, "ret_p1m": -0.019172192979512337, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.019172192979512337, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.01193561286210787, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.01193561286210787, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031107805841620206, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031107805841620206, "ret_p3m": -0.04296774901837541, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.04296774901837541, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.01239334857868124, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.01239334857868124, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.05536109759705665, "bench_c_p3m": -0.05536109759705665, "ret_p6m": 0.0360170518544225, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.0360170518544225, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.024586054603727536, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.024586054603727536, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.060603106458150036, "bench_c_p6m": 0.060603106458150036, "ret_p1y": 0.12550017781498557, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.12550017781498557, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.03284791781747831, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.03284791781747831, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15834809563246388, "bench_c_p1y": 0.15834809563246388, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.019172192979512337, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.01193561286210787, "alpha_c_stated": -0.01193561286210787, "price_path": [0.0109, 0.0165, 0.0216, 0.0138, 0.0144, 0.0063, -0.0009, 0.0031, 0.0004, 0.0038, 0.0164, 0.0244, 0.0337, 0.0338, 0.0328, 0.0328, 0.036, 0.0334, 0.0288, 0.0288, 0.0237, 0.0226, 0.0184, 0.0121, 0.0131, 0.0094, 0.0058, 0.0025, -0.0054, -0.0348, -0.038, -0.0245, -0.0232, -0.0158, -0.0158, -0.0142, -0.0209, -0.0308, -0.029, -0.029, -0.0319, -0.023, -0.0237, -0.0269, -0.0258, -0.0258, -0.04, -0.0321, -0.0243, -0.015, -0.0072, -0.0024, -0.0024, 0.0092, 0.0057, 0.0104, 0.0095, 0.0102, 0.0052, 0.0019, 0.0126, 0.0043, -0.0012, 0.0, 0.0049, 0.0035, -0.0014, 0.0014, 0.0016, -0.0043, 0.0044, 0.0034, 0.0034, 0.0111, 0.0131, 0.0106, -0.0036, -0.0028, -0.0018, -0.0039, -0.0126, -0.0016, -0.0122, -0.0282, -0.0192, -0.03, -0.0209, -0.0347, -0.0476, -0.0521, -0.0612, -0.0433, -0.0304, -0.0354, -0.0283, -0.0323, -0.0367, -0.0218, -0.0241, -0.026, -0.0285, -0.0435, -0.0355, -0.0345, -0.0264, -0.0728, -0.1249, -0.1322, -0.1485, -0.0804, -0.1114, -0.0979, -0.0864, -0.0893, -0.101, -0.0944, -0.0944, -0.1126, -0.0907, -0.0819, -0.0664, -0.0677, -0.0651, -0.0596, -0.0583, -0.0596, -0.043, -0.0461, -0.0532, -0.047, -0.039, -0.0392, -0.0128, -0.0106, -0.0166, -0.0076, 0.0021, 0.002, -0.0006, -0.0224, -0.0255, -0.0294, -0.0294, -0.0113, -0.0197, -0.0173, -0.0177, -0.0169, -0.0087, -0.011, -0.0136, -0.0051, -0.0049, 0.0, -0.0028, -0.0005, -0.0126, -0.003, -0.0126, -0.0125, -0.0125, -0.0109, -0.0022, 0.0073, 0.0, 0.0076, 0.0113, 0.016, 0.0279, 0.0303, 0.0352, 0.0352, 0.027, 0.0295, 0.0326, 0.0386, 0.031, 0.032, 0.0177, 0.0217, 0.03, 0.0296, 0.0261, 0.0392, 0.0478, 0.0445, 0.0495, 0.0433, 0.0428, 0.036]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1886821040149684566", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-02-04T16:56:06+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the chart of $RSP vs $GLD has been moving from the upper left to the lower right. I expect this to continue", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish RSP vs GLD: expects the RSP/GLD ratio to keep declining (money illusion theme — equities losing to gold in real terms).", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Equal weighted S&P $RSP in American pesos. https://t.co/6oiJIeOiYQ\n\n---\n\nAlternatively, the chart of $RSP vs $GLD has been moving from the upper left to the lower right. I expect this to continue. Again, money illusion! https://t.co/RlUaPR0orM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009752371651785663, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009752371651785663, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003088704898876582, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.003088704898876582, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006663666752909081, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006663666752909081, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006209542410714253, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.006209542410714253, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.002155119766193314, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.002155119766193314, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004054422644520939, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004054422644520939, "ret_p1w": 0.018628627232142758, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.018628627232142758, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.012762805493042872, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012762805493042872, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005865821739099886, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005865821739099886, "ret_p1m": 0.027123790922618962, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.027123790922618962, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05823159676423917, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05823159676423917, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031107805841620206, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031107805841620206, "ret_p3m": 0.13516194661458325, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.13516194661458325, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1905230442116399, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1905230442116399, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.05536109759705665, "bench_c_p3m": -0.05536109759705665, "ret_p6m": 0.14651425316220235, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14651425316220235, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.08591114670405231, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.08591114670405231, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.060603106458150036, "bench_c_p6m": 0.060603106458150036, "ret_p1y": 0.7211047944568452, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.7211047944568452, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.5627566988243813, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.5627566988243813, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.15834809563246388, "bench_c_p1y": 0.15834809563246388, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.027123790922618962, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05823159676423917, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05823159676423917, "price_path": [-0.049, -0.0554, -0.0776, -0.0855, -0.0947, -0.0971, -0.0987, -0.0816, -0.0733, -0.0681, -0.0603, -0.0482, -0.0763, -0.0745, -0.0724, -0.0724, -0.0644, -0.0726, -0.0707, -0.0679, -0.0748, -0.0745, -0.0653, -0.053, -0.044, -0.058, -0.0694, -0.0671, -0.0707, -0.0885, -0.0872, -0.0777, -0.0821, -0.0802, -0.0802, -0.074, -0.0804, -0.0833, -0.0776, -0.0776, -0.0651, -0.0724, -0.0736, -0.0683, -0.0634, -0.0634, -0.0544, -0.0638, -0.0589, -0.0519, -0.0453, -0.0504, -0.0504, -0.0357, -0.0307, -0.0321, -0.0261, -0.0362, -0.0279, -0.0316, -0.017, -0.015, -0.0098, 0.0, 0.0062, 0.0035, 0.0053, 0.0224, 0.0186, 0.0197, 0.0298, 0.0144, 0.0144, 0.0312, 0.0318, 0.0323, 0.0314, 0.037, 0.0233, 0.0249, 0.0093, 0.0029, 0.0162, 0.025, 0.0271, 0.0219, 0.0224, 0.0135, 0.0254, 0.0298, 0.0481, 0.0485, 0.0542, 0.0665, 0.0709, 0.0695, 0.0609, 0.0562, 0.0608, 0.06, 0.0742, 0.0821, 0.0977, 0.0955, 0.0978, 0.0911, 0.0656, 0.0427, 0.0484, 0.0872, 0.1137, 0.135, 0.1285, 0.1344, 0.1713, 0.1662, 0.1662, 0.2022, 0.1852, 0.1568, 0.1736, 0.1609, 0.1774, 0.1659, 0.1572, 0.1332, 0.1352, 0.1691, 0.2018, 0.1838, 0.1605, 0.1689, 0.136, 0.1408, 0.1168, 0.1346, 0.1209, 0.1354, 0.1565, 0.165, 0.1547, 0.18, 0.18, 0.16, 0.1574, 0.1642, 0.1566, 0.1873, 0.1768, 0.1844, 0.1784, 0.1626, 0.1681, 0.1684, 0.1747, 0.1893, 0.2049, 0.1877, 0.1883, 0.1819, 0.1819, 0.1814, 0.1851, 0.1664, 0.17, 0.1687, 0.1475, 0.1613, 0.1716, 0.1781, 0.1701, 0.1701, 0.1709, 0.1587, 0.1639, 0.1665, 0.1777, 0.1734, 0.1685, 0.1743, 0.1718, 0.1748, 0.1929, 0.2042, 0.1893, 0.182, 0.171, 0.1635, 0.1667, 0.1465]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1891120115493577164", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-02-16T13:39:05+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold is an insurance policy against the reckless behavior of central bankers. Gold is an asset which is no one's liability. GOLD carries no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time. Stay long. $GLD", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Stay long gold/GLD as insurance against central bank recklessness; no credit risk, scarce, value-preserving.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Gold is an investment and not a trade. Gold is an insurance policy against the reckless behavior of central bankers. Gold is an asset which is no one's liability. GOLD carries  no credit risk, and is scarce, historically preserving its value over time. Stay long. $GLD https://t.co/ymAiJuXG9n\n\n---\n\n“I’ll have what they are having.” https://t.co/qV1i24amJm", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.016291109949180926, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.016291109949180926, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.013363806842649817, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013363806842649817, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0029273031065311095, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0029273031065311095, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.000554096378723612, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.000554096378723612, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0018007206968118084, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0018007206968118084, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0023548170755354203, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0023548170755354203, "ret_p1w": -0.007683845570915393, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.007683845570915393, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.020526040660810763, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.020526040660810763, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.028209886231726156, "bench_c_p1w": -0.028209886231726156, "ret_p1m": 0.038455754248617025, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.038455754248617025, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11099995770318793, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11099995770318793, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07254420345457091, "bench_c_p1m": -0.07254420345457091, "ret_p3m": 0.08695964893174946, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.08695964893174946, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1123116735262123, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1123116735262123, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.02535202459446284, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02535202459446284, "ret_p6m": 0.14226072224405528, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14226072224405528, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.08134045221826236, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.08134045221826236, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06092027002579292, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06092027002579292, "ret_p1y": 0.6323604911582452, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.6323604911582452, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.5112017769949673, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.5112017769949673, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.12115871416327795, "bench_c_p1y": 0.12115871416327795, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.038455754248617025, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11099995770318793, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11099995770318793, "price_path": [-0.0888, -0.0771, -0.1042, -0.1025, -0.1005, -0.1005, -0.0928, -0.1007, -0.0989, -0.0962, -0.1028, -0.1025, -0.0936, -0.0817, -0.0729, -0.0865, -0.0976, -0.0954, -0.0989, -0.1161, -0.1149, -0.1057, -0.1099, -0.1081, -0.1081, -0.1021, -0.1082, -0.1111, -0.1055, -0.1055, -0.0934, -0.1005, -0.1016, -0.0966, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.0831, -0.0922, -0.0874, -0.0806, -0.0743, -0.0792, -0.0792, -0.0649, -0.0601, -0.0614, -0.0556, -0.0654, -0.0573, -0.061, -0.0467, -0.0448, -0.0397, -0.0303, -0.0243, -0.0269, -0.0251, -0.0086, -0.0122, -0.0112, -0.0014, -0.0163, -0.0163, 0.0, 0.0006, 0.0011, 0.0001, 0.0056, -0.0077, -0.0062, -0.0213, -0.0274, -0.0146, -0.0061, -0.004, -0.0091, -0.0085, -0.0172, -0.0057, -0.0014, 0.0164, 0.0168, 0.0223, 0.0342, 0.0385, 0.0371, 0.0288, 0.0242, 0.0287, 0.0279, 0.0416, 0.0494, 0.0644, 0.0623, 0.0645, 0.0581, 0.0333, 0.0111, 0.0166, 0.0542, 0.08, 0.1006, 0.0943, 0.1, 0.1358, 0.1308, 0.1308, 0.1658, 0.1493, 0.1217, 0.138, 0.1257, 0.1417, 0.1306, 0.1222, 0.0989, 0.1008, 0.1337, 0.1654, 0.1479, 0.1253, 0.1335, 0.1016, 0.1062, 0.083, 0.1003, 0.087, 0.101, 0.1215, 0.1297, 0.1197, 0.1443, 0.1443, 0.1249, 0.1223, 0.129, 0.1215, 0.1513, 0.1412, 0.1485, 0.1427, 0.1274, 0.1327, 0.133, 0.1392, 0.1533, 0.1684, 0.1518, 0.1523, 0.1461, 0.1461, 0.1457, 0.1492, 0.1311, 0.1345, 0.1333, 0.1127, 0.1261, 0.1361, 0.1424, 0.1346, 0.1346, 0.1355, 0.1236, 0.1286, 0.1311, 0.142, 0.1378, 0.1331, 0.1388, 0.1363, 0.1392, 0.1567, 0.1677, 0.1532, 0.1462, 0.1356, 0.1282, 0.1313, 0.1118, 0.1192, 0.1419, 0.1485, 0.1495, 0.147, 0.1567, 0.1564, 0.1398, 0.1388, 0.1423]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1907460232743432298", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-02T15:48:53+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "A 12x is a layup from here", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Long BTC: major financial institution flagging USD reserve-status risk to BTC implies 12x upside to gold's $21T market cap.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Duly noted and time stamped. $BTC #gold", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Let me get this straight.\n\nOne of the largest financial institutions in the world is suggesting the US dollar is at risk of losing its reserve status to bitcoin—not gold.\n\nMeanwhile gold is worth $21T and bitcoin is only worth $1.7T.\n\nA 12x is a layup from here.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.032532433884618905, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.032532433884618905, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03882093665609487, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03882093665609487, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006288502771475968, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006288502771475968, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.007481504135517403, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007481504135517403, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05676209134896815, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05676209134896815, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.049280587213450744, "bench_c_p1d": -0.049280587213450744, "ret_p1w": 0.0010697875607432739, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0010697875607432739, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.02923516654401359, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.02923516654401359, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.028165378983270317, "bench_c_p1w": -0.028165378983270317, "ret_p1m": 0.16980668337347438, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.16980668337347438, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1805237586385945, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1805237586385945, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010717075265120113, "bench_c_p1m": -0.010717075265120113, "ret_p3m": 0.2988350917976228, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2988350917976228, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.201129765976519, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.201129765976519, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0977053258211038, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0977053258211038, "ret_p6m": 0.3220385424710397, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3220385424710397, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.14967045783960709, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.14967045783960709, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1723680846314326, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1723680846314326, "ret_p1y": -0.14503269553031484, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.14503269553031484, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.30709068798972516, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.30709068798972516, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.16205799245941033, "bench_c_p1y": 0.16205799245941033, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.16980668337347438, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1805237586385945, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1805237586385945, "price_path": [0.1894, 0.2375, 0.175, 0.1522, 0.1212, 0.1481, 0.1459, 0.1703, 0.2184, 0.2094, 0.2664, 0.2368, 0.2868, 0.2566, 0.2603, 0.2708, 0.2376, 0.2285, 0.2572, 0.2697, 0.2415, 0.2294, 0.1865, 0.1713, 0.171, 0.1703, 0.1813, 0.1608, 0.1867, 0.1714, 0.1821, 0.1611, 0.1583, 0.1715, 0.1921, 0.1654, 0.1083, 0.0758, 0.0226, 0.0269, 0.0229, 0.0434, 0.0574, 0.0987, 0.0906, 0.0516, -0.0479, 0.0046, 0.015, -0.0172, 0.018, 0.0193, 0.0028, 0.053, 0.0204, 0.0189, 0.0608, 0.0604, 0.0535, 0.0569, 0.0226, 0.0008, 0.0325, 0.0, 0.0075, 0.0165, -0.0394, -0.0753, 0.0011, -0.0347, 0.0111, 0.0249, 0.0143, 0.0188, 0.0292, 0.0238, 0.061, 0.1328, 0.1359, 0.1389, 0.1483, 0.1515, 0.143, 0.1421, 0.1698, 0.1749, 0.1487, 0.1736, 0.1764, 0.2516, 0.2483, 0.2464, 0.2629, 0.2552, 0.2577, 0.2546, 0.2803, 0.2947, 0.3297, 0.3539, 0.3007, 0.3268, 0.3214, 0.3069, 0.2807, 0.2608, 0.2836, 0.2782, 0.2697, 0.2314, 0.2656, 0.3371, 0.3367, 0.3176, 0.2842, 0.2862, 0.2947, 0.2681, 0.2715, 0.2691, 0.2525, 0.28, 0.2856, 0.3016, 0.2967, 0.2983, 0.2988, 0.2814, 0.3197, 0.3293, 0.3097, 0.313, 0.3208, 0.3496, 0.4061, 0.4247, 0.453, 0.4278, 0.4395, 0.4462, 0.4306, 0.4238, 0.4547, 0.4397, 0.435, 0.4261, 0.4296, 0.4296, 0.4285, 0.4034, 0.3738, 0.3951, 0.3838, 0.3945, 0.4245, 0.4147, 0.4394, 0.4569, 0.4953, 0.4349, 0.4233, 0.4094, 0.3679, 0.3854, 0.3629, 0.4169, 0.3351, 0.3554, 0.3484, 0.3644, 0.3143, 0.3245, 0.3481, 0.3545, 0.3423, 0.3415, 0.3587, 0.3521, 0.3815, 0.4003, 0.4075, 0.3996, 0.4165, 0.412, 0.4201, 0.4025, 0.3669, 0.358, 0.3739, 0.322]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1882145766585835704", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-01-22T19:18:13+00:00", "symbol": "META", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Charts from @GuyCerundolo for space tonight. $META", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Buy META and AR; sell ENPH and OSK per chart analysis.", "resolved_tickers": ["META"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLC", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Content & Information'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Content & Information", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Charts from @GuyCerundolo for space tonight. $META https://t.co/Dpu5iPO4dD\n\n---\n\nBuy $AR https://t.co/rxWqa9NH4i\n\n---\n\nSell $ENPH https://t.co/B3stzrAI22\n\n---\n\nSell $OSK https://t.co/8EPcCNdC69", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01129089807469208, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01129089807469208, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.005700784778876589, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.00141681290956297, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005590113295815491, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00987408516512911, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02076992446468484, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02076992446468484, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.015311763557499303, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.018150269216793413, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005458160907185539, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002619655247891428, "ret_p1w": 0.08498817384327428, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08498817384327428, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09262298613869813, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.058590109422214987, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007634812295423843, "bench_c_p1w": 0.026398064421059297, "ret_p1m": 0.11441874265076879, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.11441874265076879, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10792185335923232, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.062025715950005944, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.006496889291536467, "bench_c_p1m": 0.052393026700762846, "ret_p3m": -0.2219868435174629, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.2219868435174629, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.07190743151941814, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.11307977307773098, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.15007941199804475, "bench_c_p3m": -0.10890707043973191, "ret_p6m": 0.12682314792489136, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12682314792489136, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.08501942326417744, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.04616390414951699, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.041803724660713915, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08065924377537437, "ret_p1y": 0.050712732161430685, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.050712732161430685, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.10722629232244252, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.15175128543576588, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1579390244838732, "bench_c_p1y": 0.20246401759719657, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.11441874265076879, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10792185335923232, "alpha_c_stated": 0.062025715950005944, "price_path": [-0.0813, -0.0735, -0.0492, -0.0516, -0.0904, -0.0911, -0.1015, -0.0826, -0.0833, -0.0518, -0.0555, -0.0654, -0.0628, -0.0705, -0.0751, -0.1121, -0.1115, -0.1008, -0.0937, -0.0976, -0.1039, -0.0944, -0.0809, -0.0878, -0.0878, -0.0796, -0.05, -0.0166, -0.0164, -0.0242, -0.0004, -0.0167, -0.0075, 0.0139, 0.0109, -0.0059, 0.0012, -0.0065, -0.0422, -0.0448, -0.0613, -0.0379, -0.0253, -0.0253, -0.0323, -0.038, -0.0517, -0.0609, -0.0609, -0.0389, -0.0303, 0.0107, -0.009, -0.0205, -0.0205, -0.0123, -0.0243, -0.0469, -0.0102, -0.0196, -0.0172, -0.0172, -0.0113, 0.0, 0.0208, 0.0385, 0.0583, 0.0815, 0.085, 0.1018, 0.1053, 0.1186, 0.1294, 0.1305, 0.1419, 0.146, 0.1506, 0.1545, 0.1634, 0.1685, 0.1815, 0.1815, 0.1489, 0.1287, 0.1144, 0.0963, 0.0716, 0.0545, 0.0805, 0.0557, 0.0717, 0.0506, 0.0265, 0.0529, 0.0071, 0.0035, -0.0409, -0.0285, -0.0063, -0.0527, -0.0246, -0.029, -0.0652, -0.0624, -0.0593, -0.0429, -0.0066, 0.0054, -0.0192, -0.0327, -0.0742, -0.0748, -0.0593, -0.0626, -0.1466, -0.1898, -0.1713, -0.1806, -0.0597, -0.1231, -0.1274, -0.1468, -0.1628, -0.1937, -0.195, -0.195, -0.222, -0.1969, -0.1648, -0.1441, -0.1215, -0.1175, -0.11, -0.1187, -0.0814, -0.0416, -0.038, -0.0572, -0.042, -0.04, -0.0489, 0.0265, 0.0531, 0.0585, 0.0336, 0.0279, 0.0281, 0.0227, 0.0202, 0.0219, 0.0066, 0.0066, 0.0311, 0.0331, 0.0355, 0.0394, 0.077, 0.0705, 0.1043, 0.099, 0.12, 0.1142, 0.1275, 0.1143, 0.113, 0.0962, 0.128, 0.1201, 0.1178, 0.1178, 0.0962, 0.1222, 0.1442, 0.1385, 0.1665, 0.1786, 0.1858, 0.1554, 0.1464, 0.1551, 0.1551, 0.154, 0.1578, 0.1772, 0.1683, 0.1527, 0.1582, 0.1412, 0.1292, 0.1268]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1882145766585835704", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-01-22T19:18:13+00:00", "symbol": "AR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Buy $AR", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Buy META and AR; sell ENPH and OSK per chart analysis.", "resolved_tickers": ["AR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas E&P'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas E&P", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Charts from @GuyCerundolo for space tonight. $META https://t.co/Dpu5iPO4dD\n\n---\n\nBuy $AR https://t.co/rxWqa9NH4i\n\n---\n\nSell $ENPH https://t.co/B3stzrAI22\n\n---\n\nSell $OSK https://t.co/8EPcCNdC69", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01988221256552236, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01988221256552236, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01429209926970687, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03840488068737902, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005590113295815491, "bench_c_m1d": 0.018522668121856656, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.004663780892936842, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004663780892936842, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.01012194180012238, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00923984346563933, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005458160907185539, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004576062572702488, "ret_p1w": -0.08321067905447577, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08321067905447577, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07557586675905192, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06054773896061705, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007634812295423843, "bench_c_p1w": -0.02266294009385872, "ret_p1m": -0.030191539181593008, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.030191539181593008, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.036688428473129475, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.041959017550346145, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.006496889291536467, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011767478368753137, "ret_p3m": -0.21305841795690483, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.21305841795690483, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.06297900595886008, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08458849843795357, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.15007941199804475, "bench_c_p3m": -0.12846991951895126, "ret_p6m": -0.10579286194701054, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10579286194701054, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.14759658660772446, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.06511245382615194, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.041803724660713915, "bench_c_p6m": -0.0406804081208586, "ret_p1y": -0.2297496841451394, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.2297496841451394, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.3876887086290126, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.2807168057299332, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1579390244838732, "bench_c_p1y": 0.05096712158479377, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.030191539181593008, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.036688428473129475, "alpha_c_stated": -0.041959017550346145, "price_path": [-0.3191, -0.3272, -0.3228, -0.3073, -0.3648, -0.3731, -0.3478, -0.3449, -0.2968, -0.2963, -0.2825, -0.2226, -0.2351, -0.2344, -0.2536, -0.2516, -0.2158, -0.2165, -0.1856, -0.1802, -0.1873, -0.1843, -0.1878, -0.2027, -0.2027, -0.1976, -0.2197, -0.2126, -0.2263, -0.2204, -0.2369, -0.2344, -0.2378, -0.1924, -0.1888, -0.2054, -0.2248, -0.2246, -0.2501, -0.2425, -0.2408, -0.2069, -0.1838, -0.1838, -0.1946, -0.1826, -0.1281, -0.1397, -0.1397, -0.1269, -0.1424, -0.1161, -0.0997, -0.0707, -0.0707, -0.0594, -0.0599, -0.0528, -0.0125, -0.0042, -0.0069, -0.0069, -0.0199, 0.0, -0.0047, -0.0145, -0.1078, -0.0864, -0.0832, -0.0709, -0.0839, -0.0592, -0.0493, -0.028, -0.0599, -0.0709, -0.0177, -0.0177, -0.0334, -0.0145, -0.0221, -0.0221, -0.0245, -0.0096, -0.0302, -0.0636, -0.0697, -0.0832, -0.0908, -0.1267, -0.0992, -0.1127, -0.1036, -0.107, -0.1708, -0.1743, -0.1485, -0.1198, -0.1161, -0.1073, -0.0778, -0.0452, -0.0214, 0.0069, 0.0056, 0.0007, 0.0115, 0.0167, 0.0056, -0.0297, -0.0258, -0.0074, 0.0044, 0.0309, -0.0479, -0.1787, -0.1618, -0.2086, -0.1436, -0.2165, -0.1875, -0.1843, -0.1875, -0.1581, -0.1551, -0.1551, -0.2131, -0.1942, -0.1583, -0.1522, -0.1328, -0.1181, -0.1119, -0.1451, -0.1495, -0.1222, -0.1289, -0.1286, -0.0989, -0.0822, -0.0498, -0.0329, 0.0074, -0.0059, -0.0125, -0.0231, -0.0324, -0.0238, -0.04, -0.0415, -0.0307, -0.0307, -0.014, -0.0434, -0.0466, -0.0808, -0.0513, -0.0584, -0.0844, -0.0871, -0.0513, -0.0447, -0.0577, -0.0373, -0.0172, 0.0226, 0.0341, 0.0437, 0.0562, 0.0562, 0.0746, 0.0388, 0.0395, 0.0079, 0.0037, 0.0108, -0.0113, -0.0756, -0.0869, -0.0854, -0.0854, -0.0913, -0.1011, -0.1271, -0.12, -0.1176, -0.0879, -0.1085, -0.1112, -0.1058]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1882145766585835704", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2025-01-22T19:18:13+00:00", "symbol": "ENPH", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Sell $ENPH", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Buy META and AR; sell ENPH and OSK per chart analysis.", "resolved_tickers": ["ENPH"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Solar", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Charts from @GuyCerundolo for space tonight. $META https://t.co/Dpu5iPO4dD\n\n---\n\nBuy $AR https://t.co/rxWqa9NH4i\n\n---\n\nSell $ENPH https://t.co/B3stzrAI22\n\n---\n\nSell $OSK https://t.co/8EPcCNdC69", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.030332815596138207, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030332815596138207, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0359229288919537, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0359229288919537, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005590113295815491, "bench_c_m1d": -0.005590113295815491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.054107216695251426, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.054107216695251426, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04864905578806589, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04864905578806589, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005458160907185539, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005458160907185539, "ret_p1w": -0.001967580640752753, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.001967580640752753, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.00566723165467109, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.00566723165467109, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007634812295423843, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007634812295423843, "ret_p1m": 0.08493189617844155, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08493189617844155, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.07843500688690508, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07843500688690508, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.006496889291536467, "bench_c_p1m": 0.006496889291536467, "ret_p3m": -0.1536317837139889, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1536317837139889, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.003552371715944136, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.003552371715944136, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.15007941199804475, "bench_c_p3m": -0.15007941199804475, "ret_p6m": -0.3648138938788652, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3648138938788652, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4066176185395791, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4066176185395791, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.041803724660713915, "bench_c_p6m": 0.041803724660713915, "ret_p1y": -0.42252827920255753, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.42252827920255753, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.5804673036864307, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.5804673036864307, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1579390244838732, "bench_c_p1y": 0.1579390244838732, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.08493189617844155, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.07843500688690508, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07843500688690508, "price_path": [0.3745, 0.3884, 0.362, 0.3522, 0.3615, 0.3697, 0.434, 0.4747, 0.2266, 0.1738, 0.0969, 0.0438, -0.0148, -0.0098, 0.0421, -0.0241, 0.0231, 0.0061, 0.0392, 0.0423, 0.0869, 0.179, 0.1559, 0.1864, 0.1864, 0.1699, 0.2317, 0.2012, 0.1989, 0.1533, 0.1733, 0.2525, 0.2207, 0.2171, 0.1969, 0.2107, 0.1743, 0.2035, 0.1281, 0.0789, 0.1715, 0.1969, 0.2015, 0.2015, 0.1971, 0.1827, 0.1508, 0.1261, 0.1261, 0.17, 0.183, 0.1704, 0.2053, 0.1422, 0.1422, 0.0943, 0.0964, 0.0731, 0.0794, 0.0407, 0.0443, 0.0443, 0.0303, 0.0, 0.0541, 0.0389, 0.0485, 0.0205, -0.002, 0.0174, 0.0212, 0.0479, 0.0862, 0.0702, 0.0905, 0.0416, 0.0338, 0.0261, 0.0021, 0.0262, 0.0484, 0.0484, 0.0767, 0.088, 0.0849, 0.0633, 0.0835, 0.063, 0.0446, 0.0033, -0.06, -0.1331, -0.0513, -0.0384, -0.0372, 0.0105, 0.0382, -0.0026, -0.0412, -0.0489, -0.0469, 0.0461, 0.0064, 0.0216, 0.0115, 0.009, 0.0192, 0.0292, -0.0138, -0.0046, 0.0108, 0.0174, 0.023, 0.0251, -0.0364, -0.061, -0.0858, -0.1881, -0.1125, -0.1874, -0.1492, -0.1056, -0.1299, -0.1515, -0.1385, -0.1385, -0.1536, -0.124, -0.261, -0.2499, -0.2322, -0.2381, -0.2177, -0.2689, -0.2696, -0.253, -0.2717, -0.2807, -0.283, -0.1958, -0.1674, -0.214, -0.2518, -0.2086, -0.1846, -0.1736, -0.2002, -0.1959, -0.2246, -0.3768, -0.3501, -0.3501, -0.3405, -0.3612, -0.3566, -0.3214, -0.3225, -0.2827, -0.2923, -0.3228, -0.3248, -0.2907, -0.2609, -0.2576, -0.2671, -0.2523, -0.2469, -0.4274, -0.4035, -0.4035, -0.4122, -0.4333, -0.3707, -0.3751, -0.295, -0.3297, -0.3499, -0.3292, -0.3283, -0.302, -0.302, -0.3038, -0.3287, -0.2974, -0.2955, -0.3137, -0.3117, -0.3401, -0.3601, -0.3648]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1882145766585835704", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2025-01-22T19:18:13+00:00", "symbol": "OSK", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Sell $OSK", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Buy META and AR; sell ENPH and OSK per chart analysis.", "resolved_tickers": ["OSK"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLI", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery'", "bench_c_industry": "Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Charts from @GuyCerundolo for space tonight. $META https://t.co/Dpu5iPO4dD\n\n---\n\nBuy $AR https://t.co/rxWqa9NH4i\n\n---\n\nSell $ENPH https://t.co/B3stzrAI22\n\n---\n\nSell $OSK https://t.co/8EPcCNdC69", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.012912615227909319, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.012912615227909319, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01850272852372481, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.010559644050198491, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005590113295815491, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0023529711777108275, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0017702266361090402, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0017702266361090402, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0036879342710764984, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.008354467974908353, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005458160907185539, "bench_c_p1d": 0.010124694611017393, "ret_p1w": -0.0041653781512605015, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0041653781512605015, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0034694341441633414, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.013374801254199098, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007634812295423843, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0175401794054596, "ret_p1m": 0.15402291825821246, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.15402291825821246, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.147526028966676, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.17106394224749755, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.006496889291536467, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017041023989285087, "ret_p3m": -0.14562558696205752, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.14562558696205752, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0044538250359872356, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.02167732527467492, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.15007941199804475, "bench_c_p3m": -0.1239482616873826, "ret_p6m": 0.30789027756557164, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.30789027756557164, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.2660865529048577, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.2189082297533127, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.041803724660713915, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08898204781225894, "ret_p1y": 0.5946630812324929, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.5946630812324929, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.4367240567486197, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.4242161419965156, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1579390244838732, "bench_c_p1y": 0.1704469392359773, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.15402291825821246, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.147526028966676, "alpha_c_stated": -0.17106394224749755, "price_path": [0.1003, 0.141, 0.1183, 0.104, 0.0603, 0.0701, 0.0674, 0.0903, 0.198, 0.1642, 0.1577, 0.1671, 0.1534, 0.1451, 0.158, 0.1309, 0.1375, 0.1227, 0.1242, 0.1385, 0.1643, 0.1886, 0.1828, 0.1743, 0.1743, 0.1831, 0.1677, 0.1724, 0.1812, 0.1651, 0.1104, 0.0842, 0.0569, 0.071, 0.0564, 0.0413, 0.032, 0.0171, -0.0079, -0.0192, -0.0228, -0.014, -0.0136, -0.0136, -0.0077, -0.0175, -0.0201, -0.01, -0.01, -0.0256, -0.0186, -0.0328, -0.0344, -0.041, -0.041, -0.0674, -0.0442, -0.0313, -0.021, -0.0157, -0.0017, -0.0017, 0.0129, 0.0, 0.0018, 0.0153, 0.0141, -0.0042, -0.0042, 0.1794, 0.2121, 0.1752, 0.1604, 0.1526, 0.1617, 0.15, 0.1477, 0.1572, 0.1235, 0.1301, 0.1237, 0.1237, 0.1425, 0.148, 0.154, 0.0794, 0.077, 0.0763, 0.074, 0.0603, 0.0703, 0.0199, -0.0022, 0.0048, 0.0205, 0.0289, 0.0152, 0.007, 0.0, -0.0058, 0.002, 0.0146, -0.0004, 0.0182, 0.022, 0.0021, 0.0327, 0.0371, 0.0264, 0.0155, -0.0133, -0.0157, -0.0172, 0.0022, -0.0941, -0.136, -0.1461, -0.1717, -0.0683, -0.116, -0.1004, -0.098, -0.109, -0.1161, -0.1159, -0.1159, -0.1456, -0.127, -0.1174, -0.0719, -0.0711, -0.0705, -0.0768, -0.1237, -0.093, -0.0647, -0.0624, -0.0766, -0.0725, -0.0461, -0.0372, 0.0226, 0.0479, 0.0549, 0.048, 0.0743, 0.0798, 0.0772, 0.0356, 0.0351, 0.0278, 0.0278, 0.0628, 0.0522, 0.0554, 0.0431, 0.0336, 0.0761, 0.074, 0.1527, 0.1498, 0.164, 0.1722, 0.1653, 0.1702, 0.1671, 0.173, 0.1549, 0.1528, 0.1528, 0.1472, 0.1428, 0.1625, 0.1552, 0.1882, 0.1948, 0.194, 0.2426, 0.288, 0.3062, 0.3062, 0.3097, 0.321, 0.3191, 0.3316, 0.3231, 0.309, 0.2841, 0.295, 0.3079]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1595931776408428544", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-11-25T00:06:01+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Only a matter of time before my longstanding target of 10k is met", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Longstanding BTC target of $10k; implies major downside from current levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "https://t.co/Qr9RWnCebB I tried to warn them but they did not listen. Instead their reply was, \"Have fun staying poor.\" @APompliano @RaoulGMI @LawrenceLepard Financial illiteracy can be hazardous to your net worth. Only a matter of time before my longstanding target of10k is met.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0050008375513332926, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0050008375513332926, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.004777141501270066, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.004777141501270066, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0002236960500632268, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0002236960500632268, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0184313307798164, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0184313307798164, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.002474159926798114, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.002474159926798114, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.015957170853018288, "bench_c_p1d": -0.015957170853018288, "ret_p1w": 0.03430721382904234, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03430721382904234, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.022923579247179138, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.022923579247179138, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0113836345818632, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0113836345818632, "ret_p1m": 0.024087077912843258, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.024087077912843258, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0679855350476356, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0679855350476356, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.043898457134792346, "bench_c_p1m": -0.043898457134792346, "ret_p3m": 0.46405249774121216, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.46405249774121216, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.4689237641310121, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.4689237641310121, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.004871266389799955, "bench_c_p3m": -0.004871266389799955, "ret_p6m": 0.6251987928385045, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.6251987928385045, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.5755162746728633, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.5755162746728633, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.04968251816564129, "bench_c_p6m": 0.04968251816564129, "ret_p1y": 1.1509490928379256, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.1509490928379256, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.0180632791122644, "alpha_c_p1y": -1.0180632791122644, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.13288581372566122, "bench_c_p1y": 0.13288581372566122, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.024087077912843258, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0679855350476356, "alpha_c_stated": -0.0679855350476356, "price_path": [0.1982, 0.2135, 0.2182, 0.2087, 0.1992, 0.1402, 0.1676, 0.17, 0.2941, 0.354, 0.2285, 0.2251, 0.1924, 0.1968, 0.1829, 0.1434, 0.1226, 0.175, 0.168, 0.1635, 0.1567, 0.1758, 0.1847, 0.1761, 0.1877, 0.2309, 0.2202, 0.2078, 0.1831, 0.1586, 0.1531, 0.1595, 0.1732, 0.1612, 0.1833, 0.1702, 0.1584, 0.1532, 0.1604, 0.1709, 0.2163, 0.2572, 0.2278, 0.2466, 0.2405, 0.2399, 0.2202, 0.2232, 0.28, 0.247, 0.1222, -0.0388, 0.0645, 0.031, 0.0058, 0.022, 0.0089, 0.01, 0.0106, -0.0445, -0.0201, 0.0054, 0.005, 0.0, -0.0184, -0.0047, 0.0391, 0.027, 0.0343, 0.0274, 0.0344, 0.0197, 0.0431, 0.037, 0.0414, 0.0762, 0.0783, 0.051, 0.0076, -0.005, 0.0233, 0.0179, 0.0187, 0.0167, 0.0241, 0.0118, 0.0019, 0.0073, 0.0049, 0.0101, 0.0096, 0.0207, 0.0191, 0.026, 0.0408, 0.056, 0.0855, 0.1421, 0.205, 0.2813, 0.2808, 0.2522, 0.2763, 0.3725, 0.3881, 0.3701, 0.3992, 0.3941, 0.3969, 0.3824, 0.4005, 0.4359, 0.4207, 0.4193, 0.3776, 0.4081, 0.3884, 0.3206, 0.3105, 0.32, 0.3449, 0.4713, 0.4298, 0.4869, 0.5028, 0.479, 0.4641, 0.4494, 0.4041, 0.4237, 0.401, 0.4312, 0.4209, 0.3535, 0.3576, 0.3449, 0.3145, 0.2325, 0.2219, 0.4646, 0.4978, 0.4754, 0.5163, 0.6599, 0.6806, 0.7054, 0.6528, 0.7149, 0.6641, 0.6427, 0.6504, 0.7158, 0.6968, 0.7237, 0.682, 0.7049, 0.7055, 0.6974, 0.6902, 0.7948, 0.83, 0.8242, 0.8399, 0.8452, 0.7822, 0.8398, 0.7445, 0.7096, 0.651, 0.666, 0.7133, 0.7203, 0.7839, 0.7758, 0.7003, 0.7359, 0.7556, 0.746, 0.7876, 0.6762, 0.6741, 0.6718, 0.6342, 0.6224, 0.6459, 0.6364, 0.6583, 0.624, 0.6276, 0.6252]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1903446645838061689", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-03-22T14:00:19+00:00", "symbol": "FXI", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "A lot more potential buying to come. $FXI", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish Chinese equities / FXI: cheap, under-owned, improving consumer spending, government backing; expects outperformance vs US to continue.", "resolved_tickers": ["FXI"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Chinese market handily outpacing the US…I believe this will continue ⁦@gave_vincent⁩ https://t.co/HD7A7ORf8l\n\n---\n\nA lot more potential buying to come. $FXI https://t.co/1KJdUwyVOz\n\n---\n\nNow let me see if I got this straight…Cheap market, under owned, consumer spending improving, government wants equities higher. @gave_vincent has nailed the China call. Louis, what else to add to the list? https://t.co/Z33YIBMLg5", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.002999552935748828, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.002999552935748828, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.014593863336039958, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.014593863336039958, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.017593416271788787, "bench_c_m1d": -0.017593416271788787, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010089835095499988, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.010089835095499988, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.012493656628354555, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012493656628354555, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0024038215328545665, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0024038215328545665, "ret_p1w": -0.02263417219032582, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.02263417219032582, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.002954624466059319, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.002954624466059319, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.025588796656385138, "bench_c_p1w": -0.025588796656385138, "ret_p1m": -0.08753745815017688, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08753745815017688, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.005963425115312337, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.005963425115312337, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.08157403303486455, "bench_c_p1m": -0.08157403303486455, "ret_p3m": -0.011331536982399082, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.011331536982399082, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.05202270683035215, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.05202270683035215, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04069116984795307, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04069116984795307, "ret_p6m": 0.1352403204035677, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1352403204035677, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.01782379196193573, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.01782379196193573, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.15306411236550344, "bench_c_p6m": 0.15306411236550344, "ret_p1y": 0.01757120446372329, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.01757120446372329, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.17079973745675292, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.17079973745675292, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1883709419204762, "bench_c_p1y": 0.1883709419204762, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.08753745815017688, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.005963425115312337, "alpha_c_stated": -0.005963425115312337, "price_path": [-0.1522, -0.1513, -0.1587, -0.1685, -0.1699, -0.1699, -0.1849, -0.1713, -0.1822, -0.1923, -0.1953, -0.1953, -0.2187, -0.2149, -0.1977, -0.1868, -0.1865, -0.1707, -0.1707, -0.1614, -0.1674, -0.1666, -0.1459, -0.1383, -0.1284, -0.132, -0.1113, -0.1304, -0.135, -0.1145, -0.1293, -0.1197, -0.1074, -0.0832, -0.0908, -0.0682, -0.0684, -0.0445, -0.0445, -0.0374, -0.0442, -0.0256, -0.0117, -0.0447, -0.0352, -0.0063, -0.0169, -0.0393, -0.0589, -0.0445, 0.0033, 0.0082, 0.0079, -0.0191, -0.0076, -0.0087, -0.0022, 0.027, 0.0513, 0.0496, 0.0453, 0.0153, -0.003, 0.0, -0.0101, -0.0109, 0.0003, -0.0226, -0.0226, -0.0248, -0.0308, -0.0395, -0.1072, -0.1819, -0.1931, -0.1361, -0.1394, -0.1017, -0.09, -0.0952, -0.1159, -0.1164, -0.1164, -0.1156, -0.0875, -0.0774, -0.0698, -0.0734, -0.0728, -0.0783, -0.0766, -0.0785, -0.048, -0.0491, -0.0382, -0.06, -0.0455, -0.0502, -0.0172, -0.0254, -0.0098, -0.0251, -0.0281, -0.0221, -0.0112, -0.0158, -0.0207, -0.0191, -0.0191, -0.0292, -0.039, -0.0286, -0.0455, -0.036, -0.0265, -0.0082, -0.0011, -0.0022, 0.0106, 0.015, 0.0202, 0.0161, -0.0025, 0.0141, 0.0022, -0.0113, -0.0113, -0.0177, -0.0022, 0.026, 0.0249, 0.0277, 0.018, 0.0166, 0.0185, 0.0147, 0.003, 0.003, 0.0042, 0.0147, 0.0006, 0.01, 0.0089, 0.0207, 0.0409, 0.0362, 0.0396, 0.0526, 0.0567, 0.0714, 0.0808, 0.0758, 0.0689, 0.0642, 0.057, 0.0448, 0.0354, 0.0185, 0.0362, 0.0409, 0.0451, 0.0437, 0.0418, 0.0324, 0.0492, 0.081, 0.0603, 0.0603, 0.0669, 0.057, 0.0628, 0.0611, 0.0852, 0.0824, 0.0846, 0.057, 0.0664, 0.0761, 0.0761, 0.0857, 0.0761, 0.06, 0.0758, 0.0907, 0.1054, 0.0985, 0.1267, 0.1198, 0.1278, 0.1352]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1610599752692895744", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2023-01-04T11:31:19+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "TSLA < 50 and $ARKK < 20 within the next six months", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish TSLA below $50 and ARKK below $20 within six months on Cathie Wood's reckless analysis.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "History will not be kind to Cathie Wood. She does awful analysis and is completely reckless. TSLA &lt; 50 and $ARKK &lt; 20  within the next six months. https://t.co/r84gm8s1gO\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/T5CIN8UYq0\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/l1mtaX4SyW\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/NxJsYytlWf", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.048750448304138105, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.048750448304138105, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.04108947331042345, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03447022744528094, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007660974993714653, "bench_c_m1d": -0.014280220858857162, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.029039097760312105, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.029039097760312105, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.017625811878516973, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.019749147571921366, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011413285881795132, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009289950188390739, "ret_p1w": 0.08430131892386594, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08430131892386594, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.05365700311598176, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.023495271693391606, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03064431580788418, "bench_c_p1w": 0.060806047230474336, "ret_p1m": 0.6567230313590675, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.6567230313590675, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5706794439076774, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.4577980296668265, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.08604358745139007, "bench_c_p1m": 0.19892500169224103, "ret_p3m": 0.7139212013248453, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.7139212013248453, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.6389825179836071, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.5728683053124164, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07493868334123821, "bench_c_p3m": 0.14105289601242887, "ret_p6m": 1.2659275024904293, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.2659275024904293, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.115688610575662, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.9720312857860989, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.15023889191476725, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2938962167043304, "ret_p1y": 1.2222808398671718, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.2222808398671718, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.9692871123756936, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.8323852737555724, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2529937274914782, "bench_c_p1y": 0.3898955661115995, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.6567230313590675, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5706794439076774, "alpha_c_stated": -0.4577980296668265, "price_path": [0.963, 0.962, 0.9051, 0.9117, 0.9511, 0.8039, 0.9302, 0.9376, 0.9539, 0.824, 0.887, 0.8589, 0.9572, 0.9768, 0.9807, 1.0109, 1.0023, 1.0048, 0.8918, 0.8947, 0.8257, 0.7342, 0.6834, 0.5627, 0.6783, 0.7245, 0.6803, 0.7108, 0.6448, 0.6118, 0.5856, 0.4772, 0.4952, 0.6121, 0.6121, 0.6091, 0.6096, 0.5913, 0.7133, 0.7133, 0.7147, 0.6055, 0.5824, 0.5315, 0.5262, 0.5756, 0.4768, 0.4163, 0.3798, 0.3875, 0.322, 0.3188, 0.2126, 0.2106, 0.103, 0.0837, 0.0837, -0.04, -0.0082, 0.072, 0.0839, 0.0839, -0.0488, 0.0, -0.029, -0.0051, 0.0539, 0.0458, 0.0843, 0.0873, 0.0771, 0.0771, 0.1571, 0.1332, 0.1191, 0.1741, 0.265, 0.2662, 0.2709, 0.4103, 0.5655, 0.4666, 0.5243, 0.5964, 0.6567, 0.6718, 0.7138, 0.7319, 0.7713, 0.8244, 0.7326, 0.7128, 0.8413, 0.8853, 0.7779, 0.8331, 0.8331, 0.7368, 0.7675, 0.7782, 0.7325, 0.8271, 0.8102, 0.7843, 0.6799, 0.7405, 0.7055, 0.6518, 0.6015, 0.5216, 0.5262, 0.5354, 0.6126, 0.5879, 0.6203, 0.5851, 0.6125, 0.7386, 0.6821, 0.6915, 0.6756, 0.6879, 0.6648, 0.7061, 0.7184, 0.8256, 0.7139, 0.6946, 0.6325, 0.6285, 0.6285, 0.6236, 0.6437, 0.5887, 0.6359, 0.6279, 0.6459, 0.6219, 0.5891, 0.4343, 0.4527, 0.4304, 0.4139, 0.353, 0.4096, 0.4459, 0.4241, 0.4107, 0.4133, 0.4185, 0.4965, 0.5117, 0.4885, 0.4831, 0.5143, 0.4782, 0.4638, 0.4653, 0.5299, 0.5566, 0.5852, 0.662, 0.6347, 0.6095, 0.6233, 0.6998, 0.6998, 0.7702, 0.7945, 0.8261, 0.8829, 0.9149, 0.9475, 0.9762, 1.0667, 1.1507, 1.1984, 1.2766, 1.2597, 1.2518, 1.2927, 1.2927, 1.4151, 1.2832, 1.3285, 1.258, 1.1212, 1.2018, 1.2548, 1.2659]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1610599752692895744", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2023-01-04T11:31:19+00:00", "symbol": "ARKK", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "TSLA < 50 and $ARKK < 20 within the next six months", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish TSLA below $50 and ARKK below $20 within six months on Cathie Wood's reckless analysis.", "resolved_tickers": ["ARKK"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "History will not be kind to Cathie Wood. She does awful analysis and is completely reckless. TSLA &lt; 50 and $ARKK &lt; 20  within the next six months. https://t.co/r84gm8s1gO\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/T5CIN8UYq0\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/l1mtaX4SyW\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/NxJsYytlWf", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.041535602770867874, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.041535602770867874, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03387462777715322, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03387462777715322, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007660974993714653, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007660974993714653, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02391439394604178, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02391439394604178, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012501108064246647, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.012501108064246647, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011413285881795132, "bench_c_p1d": -0.011413285881795132, "ret_p1w": 0.09376960209246343, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.09376960209246343, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.06312528628457925, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06312528628457925, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03064431580788418, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03064431580788418, "ret_p1m": 0.3974197027184292, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.3974197027184292, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.3113761152670391, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.3113761152670391, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.08604358745139007, "bench_c_p1m": 0.08604358745139007, "ret_p3m": 0.24543736665281823, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.24543736665281823, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.17049868331158002, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.17049868331158002, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07493868334123821, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07493868334123821, "ret_p6m": 0.37791058071969585, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.37791058071969585, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.2276716888049286, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.2276716888049286, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.15023889191476725, "bench_c_p6m": 0.15023889191476725, "ret_p1y": 0.6819412172489034, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.6819412172489034, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.42894748975742525, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.42894748975742525, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2529937274914782, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2529937274914782, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.3974197027184292, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.3113761152670391, "alpha_c_stated": -0.3113761152670391, "price_path": [0.1809, 0.1422, 0.1218, 0.1366, 0.134, 0.0695, 0.1447, 0.1633, 0.1133, 0.1092, 0.129, 0.1149, 0.1897, 0.1923, 0.1916, 0.2237, 0.2045, 0.2048, 0.1466, 0.1391, 0.1082, 0.101, 0.0966, 0.0249, 0.1737, 0.2712, 0.2244, 0.2577, 0.1929, 0.168, 0.1504, 0.1076, 0.1111, 0.1429, 0.1429, 0.1328, 0.101, 0.095, 0.1794, 0.1926, 0.2008, 0.135, 0.0894, 0.0809, 0.1064, 0.0903, 0.1111, 0.1104, 0.0991, 0.0453, 0.0466, 0.0138, 0.0123, 0.0293, -0.0057, -0.0255, -0.0255, -0.0629, -0.0673, -0.0192, -0.017, -0.017, -0.0415, 0.0, -0.0239, -0.0129, 0.0324, 0.0579, 0.0938, 0.1167, 0.1325, 0.1325, 0.1655, 0.1312, 0.0947, 0.1485, 0.1982, 0.1794, 0.1803, 0.2042, 0.2709, 0.2118, 0.2565, 0.3118, 0.3974, 0.3483, 0.3291, 0.3524, 0.3134, 0.2744, 0.2319, 0.253, 0.2845, 0.36, 0.3222, 0.3172, 0.3172, 0.2369, 0.2671, 0.248, 0.2096, 0.2215, 0.2467, 0.2177, 0.2329, 0.2731, 0.2467, 0.2259, 0.2244, 0.1734, 0.1334, 0.1636, 0.1885, 0.1979, 0.2347, 0.2171, 0.2026, 0.2694, 0.208, 0.1894, 0.1872, 0.1882, 0.1702, 0.2143, 0.2108, 0.2694, 0.2454, 0.2388, 0.1948, 0.2137, 0.2137, 0.2124, 0.2199, 0.1847, 0.2322, 0.2206, 0.2262, 0.2237, 0.2228, 0.1765, 0.1841, 0.168, 0.13, 0.1082, 0.1233, 0.1303, 0.1246, 0.0982, 0.0938, 0.1246, 0.1765, 0.1901, 0.2036, 0.2206, 0.2228, 0.1857, 0.2137, 0.1838, 0.214, 0.231, 0.2177, 0.2769, 0.2492, 0.2417, 0.2077, 0.2303, 0.2303, 0.2527, 0.2741, 0.2936, 0.3096, 0.3235, 0.343, 0.3295, 0.343, 0.3376, 0.3619, 0.3936, 0.3867, 0.4015, 0.3943, 0.3943, 0.3927, 0.3424, 0.3427, 0.326, 0.3184, 0.3631, 0.3902, 0.3779]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1889660135192023051", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-02-12T12:57:39+00:00", "symbol": "QQQ", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The chart says down.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Expects the QQQ/GLD wedge to break to the downside.", "resolved_tickers": ["QQQ"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@SethCL The chart says down.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Would you have guessed...?🤯\n\nNasdaq 100 $QQQ has underperformed Gold $GLD over trailing 16 months. \n\nLower-highs and higher-lows = narrowing wedge\n\nWhich way does it break, out or down? History says breakout (upside), financial media woes say breakdown.\n\n$SPX $COMPQ $NDX $SPY https://t.co/bZ44YZqGCd", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "SethCL", "ret_m1d": -0.000586612524503316, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.000586612524503316, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0038185087712809818, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0038185087712809818, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0032318962467776657, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0032318962467776657, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.014385973815199904, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.014385973815199904, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.003828473513216135, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.003828473513216135, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.010557500301983769, "bench_c_p1d": 0.010557500301983769, "ret_p1w": 0.02123828317136689, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.02123828317136689, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.005377184641488286, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.005377184641488286, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015861098529878603, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015861098529878603, "ret_p1m": -0.11349602209201393, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.11349602209201393, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.027411274407515118, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.027411274407515118, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.08608474768449881, "bench_c_p1m": -0.08608474768449881, "ret_p3m": -0.03727532682115842, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03727532682115842, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.006421011867719484, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.006421011867719484, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.030854314953438933, "bench_c_p3m": -0.030854314953438933, "ret_p6m": 0.08031272499907471, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.08031272499907471, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.026171697809413752, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.026171697809413752, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05414102718966096, "bench_c_p6m": 0.05414102718966096, "ret_p1y": 0.18308526063869524, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.18308526063869524, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.022756619870687, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.022756619870687, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.16032864076800823, "bench_c_p1y": 0.16032864076800823, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.11349602209201393, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.027411274407515118, "alpha_c_stated": 0.027411274407515118, "price_path": [-0.0616, -0.0551, -0.0486, -0.0491, -0.0457, -0.0441, -0.0426, -0.0375, -0.0451, -0.0451, -0.0367, -0.0262, -0.0232, -0.0111, -0.0139, -0.005, -0.0128, -0.0162, 0.0015, -0.005, 0.0026, 0.017, 0.0126, -0.024, -0.0283, -0.0198, -0.0103, 0.0031, 0.0031, 0.0025, -0.0109, -0.024, -0.0323, -0.0323, -0.0342, -0.0184, -0.0071, -0.0248, -0.0247, -0.0247, -0.04, -0.043, -0.044, -0.022, -0.0288, -0.0124, -0.0124, -0.0066, 0.0061, 0.0082, 0.0025, -0.0267, -0.0123, -0.0141, -0.0099, -0.0114, -0.0193, -0.0072, -0.0027, 0.0025, -0.0102, 0.0018, -0.0006, 0.0, 0.0144, 0.0186, 0.0186, 0.021, 0.0212, 0.0169, -0.0042, -0.016, -0.0284, -0.026, -0.0531, -0.0381, -0.0592, -0.062, -0.0498, -0.0759, -0.0691, -0.1052, -0.1073, -0.0973, -0.1135, -0.0921, -0.0862, -0.1018, -0.0897, -0.0928, -0.0898, -0.0699, -0.0646, -0.0818, -0.087, -0.111, -0.1111, -0.1039, -0.0974, -0.1457, -0.1987, -0.1968, -0.2113, -0.1166, -0.1542, -0.1386, -0.1328, -0.1318, -0.158, -0.1581, -0.1581, -0.179, -0.1574, -0.1383, -0.1141, -0.1042, -0.1045, -0.0985, -0.0987, -0.0869, -0.0733, -0.0788, -0.0874, -0.0838, -0.0744, -0.075, -0.0373, -0.0226, -0.0167, -0.0157, -0.0114, -0.0104, -0.0137, -0.0274, -0.0256, -0.0346, -0.0346, -0.0119, -0.0163, -0.0144, -0.0159, -0.0082, -0.0004, 0.0024, -0.0052, 0.0046, 0.006, 0.0127, 0.0093, 0.0117, -0.001, 0.0128, 0.003, 0.0028, 0.0028, -0.0013, 0.009, 0.0244, 0.027, 0.0366, 0.0402, 0.0469, 0.0381, 0.0453, 0.0556, 0.0556, 0.0477, 0.0482, 0.0557, 0.0541, 0.0518, 0.0556, 0.0566, 0.0576, 0.0662, 0.0652, 0.0707, 0.0651, 0.07, 0.0723, 0.0749, 0.0782, 0.0766, 0.078, 0.0723, 0.0512, 0.0706, 0.0633, 0.0767, 0.0803]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1608098985960509442", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-12-28T13:54:09+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Why Tesla May Decline 80% In 2023", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Predicts TSLA could decline 80% in 2023.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE TRUTH ABOUT TESLA: Why Tesla May Decline 80% In 2023 With Motörhead https://t.co/OPHbE3uP1L Also on Apple and Spotify @BradMunchen @StanphylCap @TommyThornton @lisaabramowicz1 @LizAnnSonders @LynAldenContact @leadlagreport  @biancoresearch $TSLA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03202910690866012, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03202910690866012, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0446131622414917, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.040503838769727296, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.012584055332831579, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008474731861067175, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0808269069678893, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0808269069678893, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06282672207772055, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.055086366039130974, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.018000184890168747, "bench_c_p1d": 0.025740540928758326, "ret_p1w": 0.008251267081270885, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.008251267081270885, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.010598378826941035, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.023350344655633126, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01884964590821192, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03160161173690401, "ret_p1m": 0.4219679316326099, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.4219679316326099, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.3473915245841086, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.276632606499859, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.07457640704850133, "bench_c_p1m": 0.14533532513275094, "ret_p3m": 0.7018010745864534, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.7018010745864534, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.6451367287913363, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.574738349521801, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05666434579511703, "bench_c_p3m": 0.12706272506465233, "ret_p6m": 1.3477063925202013, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3477063925202013, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.180065663097134, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.0152295503624633, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1676407294230673, "bench_c_p6m": 0.332476842157738, "ret_p1y": 1.2491349663662903, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.2491349663662903, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.98416617103081, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.8200298378313116, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26496879533548023, "bench_c_p1y": 0.42910512853497873, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.4219679316326099, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.3473915245841086, "alpha_c_stated": -0.276632606499859, "price_path": [1.3534, 1.1507, 1.2131, 1.1365, 1.1128, 0.9792, 0.9782, 0.9209, 0.9274, 0.9672, 0.8187, 0.9461, 0.9536, 0.97, 0.8391, 0.9026, 0.8743, 0.9734, 0.9931, 0.9971, 1.0275, 1.0188, 1.0213, 0.9074, 0.9103, 0.8407, 0.7486, 0.6973, 0.5756, 0.6921, 0.7387, 0.6942, 0.725, 0.6584, 0.6251, 0.5987, 0.4894, 0.5075, 0.6254, 0.6254, 0.6224, 0.6229, 0.6044, 0.7274, 0.7274, 0.7289, 0.6188, 0.5954, 0.5441, 0.5388, 0.5886, 0.489, 0.428, 0.3912, 0.3989, 0.3329, 0.3297, 0.2226, 0.2206, 0.1121, 0.0926, 0.0926, -0.032, 0.0, 0.0808, 0.0929, 0.0929, -0.0409, 0.0083, -0.021, 0.0031, 0.0626, 0.0545, 0.0932, 0.0963, 0.086, 0.086, 0.1666, 0.1426, 0.1283, 0.1837, 0.2754, 0.2766, 0.2814, 0.422, 0.5784, 0.4787, 0.5369, 0.6095, 0.6704, 0.6856, 0.728, 0.7462, 0.7859, 0.8394, 0.7469, 0.7269, 0.8565, 0.9008, 0.7926, 0.8482, 0.8482, 0.7511, 0.7821, 0.7928, 0.7468, 0.8422, 0.8251, 0.799, 0.6937, 0.7549, 0.7195, 0.6654, 0.6148, 0.5342, 0.5388, 0.548, 0.6259, 0.601, 0.6337, 0.5982, 0.6259, 0.753, 0.6959, 0.7054, 0.6894, 0.7018, 0.6786, 0.7202, 0.7326, 0.8407, 0.7281, 0.7086, 0.646, 0.6419, 0.6419, 0.637, 0.6573, 0.6018, 0.6494, 0.6414, 0.6595, 0.6353, 0.6023, 0.4461, 0.4646, 0.4422, 0.4255, 0.3641, 0.4213, 0.4578, 0.4358, 0.4223, 0.425, 0.4302, 0.5088, 0.5242, 0.5008, 0.4953, 0.5268, 0.4904, 0.4759, 0.4774, 0.5425, 0.5694, 0.5983, 0.6757, 0.6482, 0.6227, 0.6367, 0.7139, 0.7139, 0.7848, 0.8093, 0.8412, 0.8984, 0.9307, 0.9635, 0.9925, 1.0838, 1.1684, 1.2166, 1.2954, 1.2783, 1.2704, 1.3116, 1.3116, 1.435, 1.302, 1.3477]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1611034802009800708", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2023-01-05T16:20:03+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I could not disagree more. $TSLA will be lucky to earn $2 EPS in 2023. They could easily post a loss. Pricing down at least 10% with units only up 15%. Valuation still outrageous at 4x revenues vs 0.5x for other auto makers. Competition will kill $TSLA. See you at $50.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish TSLA to $50 on $2 EPS or loss risk, 10% price cuts, still-outrageous 4x revenue multiple, and rising competition.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@GerberKawasaki I could not disagree more. $TSLA will be lucky to earn $2 EPS in 2023. They could easily post a loss. Pricing down at least 10% with units only up 15%. Valuation still outrageous at 4x revenues vs 0.5x for other auto makers. Competition will kill $TSLA. See you at $50.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Tesla valuations. Market PE 17. Tesla EPS 2023 $6 equals $102. S&amp;P expecting 5% eps growth, Tesla 50%. Tesla at a 1 PEG ratio, $300 a share. Tesla at a .5 PEG ratio $150 or 25 PE. Tesla growing at 10x the market eps but trading at market multiple. $TSLA", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "GerberKawasaki", "ret_m1d": 0.02990758710606012, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02990758710606012, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.018362534235330852, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02053052447289372, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011545052870729267, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0093770626331664, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.024651090365942707, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.024651090365942707, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0017190588214333058, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0011698567006881433, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0229320315445094, "bench_c_p1d": 0.023481233665254564, "ret_p1w": 0.11981150679233243, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.11981150679233243, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07347288460539492, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.047275935342734776, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.04633862218693752, "bench_c_p1w": 0.07253557144959766, "ret_p1m": 0.7217690958206073, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.7217690958206073, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.6348642096285608, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.5488768431644062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0869048861920465, "bench_c_p1m": 0.17289225265620112, "ret_p3m": 0.7453326828226741, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.7453326828226741, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.6640165902048232, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.5954457681750929, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08131609261785089, "bench_c_p3m": 0.1498869146475812, "ret_p6m": 1.3723943964259528, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3723943964259528, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.195145437641928, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.0497749571205521, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1772489587840249, "bench_c_p6m": 0.3226194393054007, "ret_p1y": 1.2887438976596273, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.2887438976596273, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.021284291337568, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.885815193771039, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26745960632205934, "bench_c_p1y": 0.40292870388858826, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.7217690958206073, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.6348642096285608, "alpha_c_stated": -0.5488768431644062, "price_path": [1.0207, 0.9621, 0.9688, 1.0094, 0.8578, 0.9879, 0.9956, 1.0123, 0.8786, 0.9434, 0.9145, 1.0158, 1.0359, 1.04, 1.0711, 1.0622, 1.0647, 0.9483, 0.9513, 0.8803, 0.7861, 0.7337, 0.6095, 0.7285, 0.7761, 0.7306, 0.762, 0.694, 0.6601, 0.633, 0.5214, 0.5399, 0.6603, 0.6603, 0.6572, 0.6578, 0.6388, 0.7645, 0.7645, 0.766, 0.6535, 0.6297, 0.5773, 0.5719, 0.6227, 0.5209, 0.4587, 0.4211, 0.4289, 0.3615, 0.3583, 0.2489, 0.2468, 0.136, 0.1161, 0.1161, -0.0112, 0.0215, 0.104, 0.1164, 0.1164, -0.0203, 0.0299, 0.0, 0.0247, 0.0855, 0.0771, 0.1167, 0.1198, 0.1093, 0.1093, 0.1917, 0.1671, 0.1525, 0.2092, 0.3028, 0.3041, 0.309, 0.4525, 0.6123, 0.5104, 0.5699, 0.6441, 0.7063, 0.7218, 0.7651, 0.7837, 0.8243, 0.8789, 0.7844, 0.764, 0.8964, 0.9416, 0.8311, 0.8879, 0.8879, 0.7887, 0.8204, 0.8313, 0.7843, 0.8817, 0.8643, 0.8377, 0.7301, 0.7926, 0.7565, 0.7012, 0.6494, 0.5672, 0.5719, 0.5813, 0.6609, 0.6354, 0.6688, 0.6325, 0.6608, 0.7906, 0.7324, 0.7421, 0.7257, 0.7384, 0.7146, 0.7571, 0.7698, 0.8802, 0.7652, 0.7453, 0.6813, 0.6772, 0.6772, 0.6722, 0.6929, 0.6362, 0.6848, 0.6766, 0.6951, 0.6704, 0.6367, 0.4772, 0.4961, 0.4732, 0.4561, 0.3934, 0.4518, 0.4891, 0.4666, 0.4529, 0.4556, 0.4609, 0.5412, 0.5569, 0.533, 0.5275, 0.5595, 0.5224, 0.5076, 0.5092, 0.5757, 0.6031, 0.6326, 0.7117, 0.6836, 0.6576, 0.6718, 0.7507, 0.7507, 0.8231, 0.8482, 0.8807, 0.9392, 0.9722, 1.0057, 1.0353, 1.1285, 1.215, 1.2642, 1.3447, 1.3273, 1.3192, 1.3612, 1.3612, 1.4873, 1.3515, 1.3981, 1.3255, 1.1846, 1.2676, 1.3223, 1.3337, 1.3724]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1610979090378498054", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2023-01-05T12:38:40+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "THE $TSLA crash will be the biggest ever collapse in market capitalization", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Predicts TSLA will suffer the biggest-ever market-cap collapse; ARKK implicitly bearish as major TSLA holder.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@KcrEquity @KailashConcepts @BradMunchen Here is the full 2.5 hour version. CHECKMATE. GAME OVER. THE $TSLA crash will be the biggest ever collapse in market capitalization. This will be truly EPIC! @CathieDWood $ARKK @ValueAnalyst1", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02990758710606012, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02990758710606012, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.018362534235330852, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02053052447289372, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011545052870729267, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0093770626331664, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.024651090365942707, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.024651090365942707, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0017190588214333058, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0011698567006881433, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0229320315445094, "bench_c_p1d": 0.023481233665254564, "ret_p1w": 0.11981150679233243, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.11981150679233243, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07347288460539492, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.047275935342734776, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.04633862218693752, "bench_c_p1w": 0.07253557144959766, "ret_p1m": 0.7217690958206073, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.7217690958206073, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.6348642096285608, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.5488768431644062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0869048861920465, "bench_c_p1m": 0.17289225265620112, "ret_p3m": 0.7453326828226741, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.7453326828226741, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.6640165902048232, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.5954457681750929, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08131609261785089, "bench_c_p3m": 0.1498869146475812, "ret_p6m": 1.3723943964259528, "ret_signed_p6m": -1.3723943964259528, "alpha_spy_p6m": -1.195145437641928, "alpha_c_p6m": -1.0497749571205521, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1772489587840249, "bench_c_p6m": 0.3226194393054007, "ret_p1y": 1.2887438976596273, "ret_signed_p1y": -1.2887438976596273, "alpha_spy_p1y": -1.021284291337568, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.885815193771039, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26745960632205934, "bench_c_p1y": 0.40292870388858826, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.7217690958206073, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.6348642096285608, "alpha_c_stated": -0.5488768431644062, "price_path": [1.0207, 0.9621, 0.9688, 1.0094, 0.8578, 0.9879, 0.9956, 1.0123, 0.8786, 0.9434, 0.9145, 1.0158, 1.0359, 1.04, 1.0711, 1.0622, 1.0647, 0.9483, 0.9513, 0.8803, 0.7861, 0.7337, 0.6095, 0.7285, 0.7761, 0.7306, 0.762, 0.694, 0.6601, 0.633, 0.5214, 0.5399, 0.6603, 0.6603, 0.6572, 0.6578, 0.6388, 0.7645, 0.7645, 0.766, 0.6535, 0.6297, 0.5773, 0.5719, 0.6227, 0.5209, 0.4587, 0.4211, 0.4289, 0.3615, 0.3583, 0.2489, 0.2468, 0.136, 0.1161, 0.1161, -0.0112, 0.0215, 0.104, 0.1164, 0.1164, -0.0203, 0.0299, 0.0, 0.0247, 0.0855, 0.0771, 0.1167, 0.1198, 0.1093, 0.1093, 0.1917, 0.1671, 0.1525, 0.2092, 0.3028, 0.3041, 0.309, 0.4525, 0.6123, 0.5104, 0.5699, 0.6441, 0.7063, 0.7218, 0.7651, 0.7837, 0.8243, 0.8789, 0.7844, 0.764, 0.8964, 0.9416, 0.8311, 0.8879, 0.8879, 0.7887, 0.8204, 0.8313, 0.7843, 0.8817, 0.8643, 0.8377, 0.7301, 0.7926, 0.7565, 0.7012, 0.6494, 0.5672, 0.5719, 0.5813, 0.6609, 0.6354, 0.6688, 0.6325, 0.6608, 0.7906, 0.7324, 0.7421, 0.7257, 0.7384, 0.7146, 0.7571, 0.7698, 0.8802, 0.7652, 0.7453, 0.6813, 0.6772, 0.6772, 0.6722, 0.6929, 0.6362, 0.6848, 0.6766, 0.6951, 0.6704, 0.6367, 0.4772, 0.4961, 0.4732, 0.4561, 0.3934, 0.4518, 0.4891, 0.4666, 0.4529, 0.4556, 0.4609, 0.5412, 0.5569, 0.533, 0.5275, 0.5595, 0.5224, 0.5076, 0.5092, 0.5757, 0.6031, 0.6326, 0.7117, 0.6836, 0.6576, 0.6718, 0.7507, 0.7507, 0.8231, 0.8482, 0.8807, 0.9392, 0.9722, 1.0057, 1.0353, 1.1285, 1.215, 1.2642, 1.3447, 1.3273, 1.3192, 1.3612, 1.3612, 1.4873, 1.3515, 1.3981, 1.3255, 1.1846, 1.2676, 1.3223, 1.3337, 1.3724]}
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{"unit_id": "orig:1588203645870301184", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-11-03T16:17:11+00:00", "symbol": "QQQ", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$NDX is not a cash alternative but instead offer return free risk", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish NDX/QQQ: market hasn't bottomed, index offers return-free risk not a cash alternative.", "resolved_tickers": ["QQQ"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The market will not bottom until they stop running these inane QQQ commercials. Investors will learn that $NDX is not a cash alternative but instead offer return free risk IMHO. https://t.co/JRCeaJPChb via @YouTube @biancoresearch @daChartLife @crossbordercap @TommyThornton", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.019923884640718148, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.019923884640718148, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.009519990984294902, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.009519990984294902, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010403893656423246, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010403893656423246, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.016084862567959046, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.016084862567959046, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0016919224344216222, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0016919224344216222, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.014392940133537424, "bench_c_p1d": 0.014392940133537424, "ret_p1w": 0.0854543712585758, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0854543712585758, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.021628590588465446, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.021628590588465446, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.06382578067011035, "bench_c_p1w": 0.06382578067011035, "ret_p1m": 0.12307573302690811, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.12307573302690811, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.026312902273908367, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.026312902273908367, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09676283075299974, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09676283075299974, "ret_p3m": 0.13373034944316142, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13373034944316142, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.033095484473495196, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.033095484473495196, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10063486496966623, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10063486496966623, "ret_p6m": 0.2431678834574711, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.2431678834574711, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.11264701556526369, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.11264701556526369, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1305208678922074, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1305208678922074, "ret_p1y": 0.37464336466389647, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.37464336466389647, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.22351814140942938, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.22351814140942938, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1511252232544671, "bench_c_p1y": 0.1511252232544671, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.12307573302690811, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.026312902273908367, "alpha_c_stated": -0.026312902273908367, "price_path": [0.229, 0.2151, 0.249, 0.2419, 0.2661, 0.2763, 0.2733, 0.2588, 0.2618, 0.2372, 0.2046, 0.2036, 0.2071, 0.2285, 0.1781, 0.1665, 0.1535, 0.1468, 0.1473, 0.1311, 0.1311, 0.123, 0.1457, 0.1516, 0.1768, 0.1908, 0.1255, 0.1344, 0.1155, 0.1087, 0.1173, 0.1084, 0.0886, 0.0752, 0.0577, 0.0533, 0.0537, 0.0747, 0.0437, 0.026, 0.0501, 0.0831, 0.0825, 0.074, 0.0331, 0.0227, 0.0087, 0.0083, 0.032, 0.001, 0.034, 0.0422, 0.0384, 0.0331, 0.0573, 0.0689, 0.0911, 0.067, 0.0475, 0.0796, 0.067, 0.0561, 0.0199, 0.0, 0.0161, 0.0273, 0.0347, 0.0109, 0.0855, 0.1055, 0.0958, 0.1109, 0.0958, 0.0934, 0.0934, 0.0822, 0.0977, 0.1088, 0.1088, 0.1015, 0.0853, 0.0771, 0.1262, 0.1276, 0.1231, 0.1042, 0.0813, 0.0769, 0.0897, 0.0827, 0.0963, 0.1081, 0.0999, 0.063, 0.0528, 0.038, 0.0372, 0.0523, 0.0265, 0.0288, 0.0288, 0.0143, 0.0009, 0.0253, 0.0247, 0.0247, 0.0177, 0.0226, 0.0066, 0.0344, 0.0411, 0.0499, 0.068, 0.0738, 0.0812, 0.0812, 0.0834, 0.0693, 0.0588, 0.0878, 0.1119, 0.1097, 0.1072, 0.1288, 0.14, 0.117, 0.1337, 0.158, 0.1995, 0.1782, 0.1682, 0.1925, 0.1712, 0.1609, 0.1533, 0.1717, 0.1804, 0.1895, 0.1671, 0.1589, 0.1589, 0.1315, 0.1323, 0.1422, 0.1231, 0.1311, 0.1297, 0.1206, 0.1298, 0.1532, 0.1545, 0.1403, 0.146, 0.1262, 0.1104, 0.1186, 0.1443, 0.1503, 0.1806, 0.1751, 0.1792, 0.1961, 0.1798, 0.1938, 0.1982, 0.19, 0.1837, 0.2052, 0.2167, 0.2369, 0.2339, 0.2297, 0.2176, 0.2258, 0.2258, 0.2251, 0.2172, 0.2065, 0.2301, 0.2278, 0.2288, 0.2289, 0.2283, 0.219, 0.2202, 0.2177, 0.1947, 0.202, 0.2347, 0.2432]}
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{"unit_id": "orig:1902038030040387597", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-03-18T16:42:59+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": true, "quote": "Back up the truck for a \"Perpetual Strife Preferred stock\" with a 10% yield. Non-rated of course. But it will have a NASDAQ symbol. That makes it even better. Sign me up. $MSTR", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Sarcastic mockery of MSTR's non-rated perpetual preferred at 10% yield via retail syndicate; implied bearish on MSTR.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "When FIDO is in the syndicate (retail) its rarely a good thing. \n\nBack up the truck for a \"Perpetual Strife Preferred stock\" with a 10% yield.  Non-rated of course.   But it will have a NASDAQ symbol.  That makes it even better. \n\nSign me up.  $MSTR https://t.co/nAmh1VXyHo", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03912562758834737, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03912562758834737, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.028199150453524835, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.028199150453524835, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010926477134822532, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010926477134822532, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.07429643830479216, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.07429643830479216, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06340559230977094, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.06340559230977094, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.010890845995021214, "bench_c_p1d": 0.010890845995021214, "ret_p1w": 0.2069988156778817, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.2069988156778817, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1781743301356593, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.1781743301356593, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02882448554222239, "bench_c_p1w": 0.02882448554222239, "ret_p1m": 0.10053321436230345, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.10053321436230345, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.16074264800533633, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.16074264800533633, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.060209433643032884, "bench_c_p1m": -0.060209433643032884, "ret_p3m": 0.35198980125156654, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.35198980125156654, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.28465557817252485, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.28465557817252485, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.06733422307904169, "bench_c_p3m": 0.06733422307904169, "ret_p6m": 0.15275966451031664, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.15275966451031664, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.0167277085108688, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.0167277085108688, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.16948737302118544, "bench_c_p6m": 0.16948737302118544, "ret_p1y": -0.5063032015492097, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.5063032015492097, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.7349772174519849, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.7349772174519849, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.22867401590277514, "bench_c_p1y": 0.22867401590277514, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.10053321436230345, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.16074264800533633, "alpha_c_stated": -0.16074264800533633, "price_path": [0.1528, 0.2861, 0.1732, 0.2648, 0.2648, 0.2043, 0.1653, 0.0698, 0.0227, 0.0227, 0.0594, 0.1994, 0.3386, 0.2057, 0.1713, 0.1713, 0.1579, 0.1596, 0.2083, 0.2734, 0.2959, 0.4001, 0.4001, 0.374, 0.3324, 0.3176, 0.2489, 0.2286, 0.1862, 0.205, 0.2009, 0.1822, 0.2256, 0.23, 0.189, 0.1493, 0.1567, 0.1816, 0.1281, 0.1541, 0.1474, 0.1926, 0.1926, 0.1793, 0.1253, 0.1438, 0.0583, -0.0015, -0.1154, -0.0703, -0.1523, -0.098, -0.114, -0.0284, 0.0896, 0.0739, 0.0141, -0.1551, -0.0798, -0.0729, -0.0704, 0.0505, 0.0391, 0.0, 0.0743, 0.0667, 0.0735, 0.1855, 0.207, 0.1629, 0.1462, 0.022, 0.0179, 0.0806, 0.1036, -0.0032, 0.0368, -0.0531, -0.1598, 0.0483, -0.0383, 0.0593, 0.0998, 0.0972, 0.1005, 0.1201, 0.1201, 0.1221, 0.2113, 0.2208, 0.2371, 0.302, 0.3039, 0.347, 0.3422, 0.3475, 0.3926, 0.3649, 0.3616, 0.3859, 0.4633, 0.4691, 0.4298, 0.4888, 0.4716, 0.402, 0.4118, 0.4599, 0.4722, 0.422, 0.4106, 0.3048, 0.3048, 0.3143, 0.2862, 0.3088, 0.3032, 0.3146, 0.3681, 0.3351, 0.3023, 0.3223, 0.3847, 0.3813, 0.367, 0.341, 0.352, 0.3498, 0.3248, 0.3031, 0.3031, 0.3055, 0.2966, 0.3313, 0.3725, 0.3646, 0.3556, 0.4274, 0.3182, 0.4205, 0.4266, 0.4266, 0.3972, 0.4017, 0.4669, 0.4892, 0.5346, 0.5926, 0.5619, 0.6099, 0.5938, 0.4945, 0.5053, 0.5057, 0.4572, 0.4652, 0.4333, 0.4259, 0.3936, 0.395, 0.419, 0.2946, 0.3745, 0.3258, 0.3539, 0.4196, 0.3953, 0.4134, 0.3927, 0.3768, 0.3169, 0.2935, 0.2839, 0.1885, 0.216, 0.1921, 0.2646, 0.2119, 0.2407, 0.2079, 0.1965, 0.1809, 0.1809, 0.2063, 0.1662, 0.1568, 0.186, 0.1649, 0.1601, 0.1528]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1588908822353293312", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2022-11-05T14:59:18+00:00", "symbol": "AAPL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Insanity. You know what to do.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses AAPL as a buy on the back of its massive $549B buyback program.", "resolved_tickers": ["AAPL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Consumer Electronics'", "bench_c_industry": "Consumer Electronics", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Insanity. You know what to do.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Apple has bought back $549 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 494 companies in the S&amp;P 500.\n\n$AAPL\n\nCharting via @ycharts https://t.co/VwleLHANdF", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.003887260074789567, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.003887260074789567, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.00558780149766791, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.012534092424137278, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.009475061572457477, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016421352498926844, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004175006682624494, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.004175006682624494, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0012203996314616994, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0054177939093484895, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005395406314086193, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009592800591972983, "ret_p1w": 0.06737694057217114, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06737694057217114, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.02745074819809279, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.005706794778957969, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03992619237407835, "bench_c_p1w": 0.07308373535112911, "ret_p1m": 0.028721601917536255, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.028721601917536255, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.007809645566697387, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.030216561351293914, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03653124748423364, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05893816326883017, "ret_p3m": 0.0856608023773946, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.0856608023773946, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.016310241985660223, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.07985851184017334, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10197104436305482, "bench_c_p3m": 0.16551931421756794, "ret_p6m": 0.21506836048439282, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.21506836048439282, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.12465714102315872, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.006541970167080136, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0904112194612341, "bench_c_p6m": 0.22161033065147295, "ret_p1y": 0.2368990119992347, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.2368990119992347, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.12063866813859891, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.10311893248729609, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.11626034386063577, "bench_c_p1y": 0.3400179444865308, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.028721601917536255, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.007809645566697387, "alpha_c_stated": -0.030216561351293914, "price_path": [0.2162, 0.2108, 0.2368, 0.2446, 0.2435, 0.2544, 0.2515, 0.2326, 0.2042, 0.2018, 0.2039, 0.2219, 0.1758, 0.1598, 0.142, 0.1299, 0.1352, 0.1197, 0.1197, 0.1105, 0.1208, 0.11, 0.1309, 0.1745, 0.1056, 0.1161, 0.095, 0.083, 0.1102, 0.1276, 0.1047, 0.0977, 0.0811, 0.0835, 0.0906, 0.0768, 0.0239, -0.0068, 0.0237, 0.0499, 0.0521, 0.0451, 0.0068, 0.0091, -0.0012, -0.0058, 0.0276, -0.0055, 0.0234, 0.0331, 0.0338, 0.0305, 0.0584, 0.074, 0.0948, 0.0733, 0.0406, 0.1192, 0.102, 0.0826, 0.0423, -0.0019, -0.0039, 0.0, 0.0042, -0.0292, 0.0572, 0.0776, 0.0674, 0.08, 0.071, 0.0849, 0.089, 0.0654, 0.0811, 0.0875, 0.0875, 0.0662, 0.0382, 0.0162, 0.0656, 0.0676, 0.064, 0.0555, 0.0287, 0.0145, 0.0269, 0.0233, 0.0401, 0.0471, 0.0309, -0.0174, -0.0317, -0.0471, -0.0477, -0.025, -0.0482, -0.0508, -0.0508, -0.064, -0.0927, -0.067, -0.0647, -0.0647, -0.0997, -0.0904, -0.1001, -0.0669, -0.0631, -0.059, -0.0391, -0.0397, -0.0299, -0.0299, -0.0215, -0.0267, -0.0263, -0.0076, 0.0158, 0.026, 0.0212, 0.0363, 0.0505, 0.0294, 0.0387, 0.0469, 0.0857, 0.1122, 0.0922, 0.1132, 0.0936, 0.086, 0.0887, 0.1092, 0.1045, 0.1198, 0.1082, 0.0998, 0.0998, 0.0704, 0.0735, 0.0771, 0.0577, 0.0664, 0.0627, 0.0476, 0.0519, 0.0888, 0.109, 0.0929, 0.1021, 0.0857, 0.0706, 0.0848, 0.1001, 0.103, 0.1236, 0.1175, 0.1348, 0.1483, 0.1379, 0.1458, 0.1553, 0.1411, 0.1366, 0.1591, 0.1705, 0.1888, 0.198, 0.1941, 0.1806, 0.1871, 0.1871, 0.1681, 0.1593, 0.1542, 0.1936, 0.1911, 0.1912, 0.2001, 0.2085, 0.2014, 0.1897, 0.1919, 0.1807, 0.1806, 0.2141, 0.2233, 0.2226, 0.2151]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1907489540769722522", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-02T17:45:20+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is in big trouble. Collapsing sales. Plunging resale values. Declining sales and earnings. Brand destruction. Wildy overvalued.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA on collapsing sales, plunging resale values, declining earnings, brand destruction, and gross overvaluation.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@LinkN01 $TSLA is in big trouble. Collapsing sales. Plunging resale values. Declining sales and earnings. Brand destruction. Wildy overvalued.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "https://t.co/53tDnrbohK", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "LinkN01", "ret_m1d": -0.050572987044384066, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.050572987044384066, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0442844842729081, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03193154743405924, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006288502771475968, "bench_c_m1d": -0.018641439610324828, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05474611137253549, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05474611137253549, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.005465524159084745, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.005654326787664643, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.049280587213450744, "bench_c_p1d": -0.06040043816020013, "ret_p1w": -0.03734614936301195, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03734614936301195, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.009180770379741632, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.00087136752504402, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.028165378983270317, "bench_c_p1w": -0.03821751688805597, "ret_p1m": -0.007921985693131961, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.007921985693131961, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.002795089571988152, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.016474172128218667, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010717075265120113, "bench_c_p1m": -0.024396157821350628, "ret_p3m": 0.1234262013408911, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1234262013408911, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0257208755197873, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.052194698920125626, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0977053258211038, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07123150242076548, "ret_p6m": 0.4973475740058799, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.4973475740058799, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.3249794893744473, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.33095258465215416, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1723680846314326, "bench_c_p6m": 0.16639498935372576, "ret_p1y": 0.30131552817555063, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.30131552817555063, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.1392575357161403, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.2352208568305667, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.16205799245941033, "bench_c_p1y": 0.06609467134498392, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.007921985693131961, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.002795089571988152, "alpha_c_stated": -0.016474172128218667, "price_path": [0.4515, 0.4537, 0.3947, 0.3967, 0.3967, 0.396, 0.4263, 0.4018, 0.5144, 0.4635, 0.5083, 0.5083, 0.4998, 0.4681, 0.4584, 0.4379, 0.4045, 0.4079, 0.3761, 0.4156, 0.4309, 0.3569, 0.3871, 0.3374, 0.3238, 0.2789, 0.2404, 0.1618, 0.1901, 0.2588, 0.2585, 0.2585, 0.2523, 0.2751, 0.2534, 0.1947, 0.1689, 0.0709, 0.0284, -0.0029, 0.0361, 0.0067, -0.0379, -0.0129, -0.0683, -0.071, -0.2144, -0.1845, -0.1226, -0.1488, -0.1159, -0.1583, -0.2032, -0.1659, -0.1645, -0.1204, -0.0155, 0.019, -0.0378, -0.0341, -0.0679, -0.0835, -0.0506, 0.0, -0.0547, -0.1532, -0.175, -0.2154, -0.0373, -0.1074, -0.1077, -0.1075, -0.1013, -0.1457, -0.1464, -0.1464, -0.1954, -0.1584, -0.1132, -0.0822, 0.0077, 0.011, 0.0328, -0.0021, -0.0079, 0.0157, -0.0088, -0.0262, -0.0231, 0.0073, 0.0548, 0.126, 0.1815, 0.2296, 0.2124, 0.2377, 0.2098, 0.2159, 0.1834, 0.2061, 0.2001, 0.2001, 0.2834, 0.2622, 0.2676, 0.2253, 0.2119, 0.2175, 0.1743, 0.0069, 0.0438, 0.0913, 0.1532, 0.1544, 0.1286, 0.1505, 0.164, 0.1188, 0.139, 0.139, 0.1393, 0.2331, 0.2041, 0.1584, 0.1521, 0.1445, 0.1234, 0.0635, 0.1163, 0.1153, 0.1153, 0.0395, 0.0532, 0.0464, 0.0959, 0.1087, 0.1207, 0.0991, 0.1376, 0.1296, 0.1658, 0.1617, 0.1745, 0.1761, 0.0797, 0.1178, 0.1515, 0.1359, 0.1283, 0.0902, 0.0703, 0.0937, 0.0918, 0.1314, 0.1397, 0.1658, 0.199, 0.2054, 0.2002, 0.1868, 0.169, 0.1853, 0.1646, 0.1455, 0.1321, 0.2025, 0.2258, 0.2437, 0.2364, 0.2236, 0.1808, 0.1808, 0.1648, 0.1815, 0.1972, 0.2408, 0.2251, 0.2271, 0.23, 0.3043, 0.4003, 0.4501, 0.4911, 0.5061, 0.4742, 0.5068, 0.5356, 0.506, 0.566, 0.4973]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1964733897528541519", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-07T16:53:58+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Vacuous nonsense. Zillow only books the commission as revenue whereas $OPEN books the entire gross sales price. Any of you $OPEN geniuses notice that small detail?", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: the 0.3× vs Zillow 3× valuation comparison is flawed because OPEN books gross sales price vs Zillow's commission-only revenue, making the bull case nonsense.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Vacuous nonsense. Zillow only books the commission as revenue whereas $OPEN books the entire gross sales price. Any of you $OPEN geniuses notice that small detail? @ericjackson you should know better. You are a complete BS artist. You would get thrown out of any responsible firm for saying such crap.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "This is why we $OPEN\n\n1) Forbes just called OPEN a potential value play \n2) Trades at only 0.3× forward sales vs Zillow ~3×\n3) Path to $9–$10 if revenues rebound + multiples normalize\n4) Ahead of guidance: $634M vs $612M expected \n5) Group One Trading boosted stake by 143%\n6) New https://t.co/uZo55o8UWI", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.10099340022632397, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10099340022632397, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.10344395820976915, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09431072704026411, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0024505579834451785, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006682673186059862, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011589432467463467, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011589432467463467, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00927745251552925, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012066651902792436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0023119799519342177, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047721943532896827, "ret_p1w": 0.5720198585309404, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.5720198585309404, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.5534017050180586, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.5624733978236554, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018618153512881763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009546460707285043, "ret_p1m": 0.5380794735970369, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.5393449009372934, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03413099875479508, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0012654273402564753, "ret_p3m": 0.254966882711795, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.254966882711795, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.19723595958997908, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.268978034031231, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.057730923121815936, "bench_c_p3m": -0.014011151319435977, "ret_p6m": -0.17715234742039776, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17715234742039776, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23171547375600654, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.23955761813812093, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05456312633560878, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06240527071772317, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_stated": -0.5393449009372934, "price_path": [-0.8993, -0.9005, -0.9048, -0.9079, -0.9061, -0.904, -0.904, -0.9114, -0.9123, -0.9089, -0.9152, -0.9109, -0.9076, -0.9118, -0.9065, -0.9063, -0.899, -0.899, -0.8964, -0.8788, -0.878, -0.8538, -0.871, -0.8508, -0.8278, -0.7533, -0.7268, -0.6275, -0.4685, -0.5232, -0.6209, -0.5993, -0.5795, -0.6126, -0.6606, -0.6573, -0.6954, -0.6523, -0.5927, -0.5828, -0.6854, -0.6937, -0.6772, -0.6175, -0.5911, -0.5993, -0.4967, -0.4752, -0.3742, -0.4007, -0.4669, -0.404, -0.1705, -0.2483, -0.2219, -0.3344, -0.293, -0.2632, -0.2632, -0.1573, -0.1507, -0.0132, 0.101, 0.0, 0.0116, -0.0298, 0.7417, 0.5017, 0.572, 0.4768, 0.6904, 0.6457, 0.5844, 0.3874, 0.1738, 0.3626, 0.505, 0.4586, 0.3576, 0.3195, 0.3344, 0.3262, 0.3427, 0.5364, 0.5381, 0.4056, 0.3477, 0.2533, 0.2036, 0.2649, 0.2219, 0.1772, 0.1854, 0.2202, 0.1523, 0.1291, 0.1639, 0.3195, 0.351, 0.3195, 0.2666, 0.2152, 0.2864, 0.2566, 0.1457, 0.197, 0.0861, 0.0861, 0.3195, 0.404, 0.5513, 0.4172, 0.3444, 0.298, 0.245, 0.1076, 0.0199, 0.1175, 0.2732, 0.2815, 0.2881, 0.2881, 0.2748, 0.1821, 0.1573, 0.149, 0.255, 0.1838, 0.1672, 0.2268, 0.1589, 0.1672, 0.0861, 0.0712, 0.1142, 0.0132, 0.0397, 0.053, 0.0629, 0.0381, 0.0397, 0.0397, -0.005, -0.0348, -0.0331, -0.0348, -0.0348, 0.005, 0.0464, 0.1474, 0.0132, 0.0646, 0.207, 0.1623, 0.1209, 0.0993, 0.043, 0.1043, 0.1043, 0.0579, 0.0728, 0.0629, -0.005, -0.0281, -0.0381, -0.0464, -0.0762, -0.1474, -0.202, -0.1507, -0.1722, -0.2219, -0.1921, -0.1821, -0.2235, -0.2119, -0.2748, -0.2641, -0.2641, -0.2831, -0.2334, -0.2301, -0.1722, -0.2086, -0.154, -0.1755, -0.1043, -0.1026, -0.1639, -0.1772]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1964723595499954177", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-07T16:13:02+00:00", "symbol": "LULU", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$LULU remains a short", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Maintains short position on LULU despite price decline from $400 to $167.", "resolved_tickers": ["LULU"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Apparel Retail'", "bench_c_industry": "Apparel Retail", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$LULU remains a short", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "They loved $LULU at $400 (Street's price target was &gt; $500), but hate her at $167?", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0017846700824809547, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0017846700824809547, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0006658879009642238, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0020709371717524405, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0024505579834451785, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0038556072542333952, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.014336725607405953, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.014336725607405953, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01664870555934017, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.012938548384859638, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0023119799519342177, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0013981772225463152, "ret_p1w": -0.0483046405779205, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0483046405779205, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06692279409080226, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06813341273269347, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018618153512881763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.019828772154772967, "ret_p1m": 0.0301605703827732, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0301605703827732, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.003970428372021884, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.029755059896606983, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03413099875479508, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0004055104861662162, "ret_p3m": 0.09220701628324224, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.09220701628324224, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0344760931614263, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08144515629055893, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.057730923121815936, "bench_c_p3m": 0.01076185999268331, "ret_p6m": 0.036704330427839826, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.036704330427839826, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.017858795907768954, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.06400084140232565, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05456312633560878, "bench_c_p6m": -0.02729651097448582, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0301605703827732, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.003970428372021884, "alpha_c_stated": -0.029755059896606983, "price_path": [0.5008, 0.4695, 0.4224, 0.4354, 0.3992, 0.3602, 0.3602, 0.3532, 0.3418, 0.3857, 0.3773, 0.3776, 0.3981, 0.4133, 0.4582, 0.4652, 0.4734, 0.4734, 0.4133, 0.419, 0.4033, 0.4189, 0.407, 0.3616, 0.3218, 0.3451, 0.3879, 0.3669, 0.3278, 0.3321, 0.3327, 0.301, 0.3054, 0.2885, 0.2733, 0.2283, 0.1929, 0.1501, 0.1686, 0.1604, 0.169, 0.1371, 0.1269, 0.1091, 0.1477, 0.1927, 0.1612, 0.1806, 0.2113, 0.1758, 0.1786, 0.1789, 0.2349, 0.2043, 0.2048, 0.2229, 0.22, 0.2029, 0.2029, 0.191, 0.181, 0.226, -0.0018, 0.0, -0.0143, -0.025, -0.0138, -0.049, -0.0483, -0.0343, -0.0275, 0.0099, 0.009, 0.0316, 0.0311, 0.0662, 0.0233, 0.0488, 0.0655, 0.0585, 0.0563, 0.0601, 0.0446, 0.0358, 0.0302, 0.04, 0.032, -0.0035, 0.0104, 0.0061, -0.0059, -0.0207, -0.0041, 0.0258, 0.0791, 0.0606, 0.0652, 0.0599, 0.0791, 0.0707, 0.0131, -0.0005, 0.0145, -0.0156, -0.0443, -0.003, -0.0271, -0.0117, 0.0134, 0.0102, 0.0167, 0.0093, 0.0153, -0.0234, -0.0246, -0.0121, -0.0203, 0.0005, 0.0093, 0.056, 0.0823, 0.0823, 0.0957, 0.0851, 0.0851, 0.0845, 0.0922, 0.1303, 0.0889, 0.0844, 0.1161, 0.1125, 0.2193, 0.2272, 0.2299, 0.2366, 0.2797, 0.246, 0.2634, 0.2652, 0.2516, 0.2516, 0.2431, 0.2644, 0.2532, 0.2362, 0.2362, 0.2541, 0.2635, 0.2842, 0.2595, 0.2622, 0.213, 0.2435, 0.2606, 0.2084, 0.2196, 0.2009, 0.2009, 0.1229, 0.1293, 0.158, 0.1366, 0.1469, 0.1088, 0.0729, 0.0264, 0.0381, 0.0653, 0.0206, 0.0589, 0.0118, 0.0283, 0.0451, 0.0745, 0.0462, 0.0085, 0.0495, 0.0495, 0.0572, 0.0835, 0.0879, 0.1142, 0.0595, 0.0678, 0.086, 0.1071, 0.1015, 0.048, 0.0367]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1963970061548273732", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-05T14:18:46+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN $5B for $600mm in assets. Want to play $OPEN as a meme speculation? Be my guest. But don't embarrass yourself by trying to make a fundamental case.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: $5B valuation vs $600mm in assets makes any fundamental bull case embarrassing; at best a meme speculation.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@APompliano $OPEN $5B for $600mm in assets. Want to play $OPEN as a meme speculation? Be my guest. But don’t embarrass yourself by trying to make a fundamental case. @ericjackson @DavidDTawil @APompliano https://t.co/xAFf6O6LTl", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "I personally purchased more $OPEN shares this morning.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "APompliano", "ret_m1d": -0.10375940561281072, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.10375940561281072, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.10666410764511058, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.09380189155498975, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0029047020322998662, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009957514057820971, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.09172934207013728, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.09172934207013728, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.09418592004033921, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.08509103055047051, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002456577970201934, "bench_c_p1d": -0.006638311519666762, "ret_p1w": 0.363909708985211, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.363909708985211, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.3481966678027051, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.35987938241265494, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015713041182505938, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004030326572556087, "ret_p1m": 0.39548866163714624, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.39548866163714624, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.35495955869666096, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.4002784810279204, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.040529102940485284, "bench_c_p1m": -0.004789819390774164, "ret_p3m": 0.04360901619460855, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.04360901619460855, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.015945622857191477, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.062493330787423806, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05955463905180003, "bench_c_p3m": -0.018884314592815254, "ret_p6m": -0.24060148596797337, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24060148596797337, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.30715610890637624, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.30126707411367326, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06655462293840286, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06066558814569989, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.39548866163714624, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.35495955869666096, "alpha_c_stated": -0.4002784810279204, "price_path": [-0.9093, -0.9086, -0.9096, -0.9135, -0.9164, -0.9147, -0.9128, -0.9128, -0.9195, -0.9203, -0.9173, -0.923, -0.9191, -0.9161, -0.9198, -0.915, -0.9149, -0.9083, -0.9083, -0.9059, -0.8899, -0.8892, -0.8672, -0.8829, -0.8645, -0.8436, -0.7759, -0.7519, -0.6617, -0.5173, -0.5669, -0.6556, -0.6361, -0.618, -0.6481, -0.6917, -0.6887, -0.7233, -0.6842, -0.6301, -0.6211, -0.7143, -0.7218, -0.7068, -0.6526, -0.6286, -0.6361, -0.5429, -0.5233, -0.4316, -0.4556, -0.5158, -0.4586, -0.2466, -0.3173, -0.2932, -0.3955, -0.3579, -0.3308, -0.3308, -0.2346, -0.2286, -0.1038, 0.0, -0.0917, -0.0812, -0.1188, 0.582, 0.3639, 0.4278, 0.3414, 0.5353, 0.4947, 0.4391, 0.2602, 0.0662, 0.2376, 0.3669, 0.3248, 0.2331, 0.1985, 0.212, 0.2045, 0.2195, 0.3955, 0.397, 0.2767, 0.2241, 0.1383, 0.0932, 0.1489, 0.1098, 0.0692, 0.0767, 0.1083, 0.0466, 0.0256, 0.0571, 0.1985, 0.2271, 0.1985, 0.1504, 0.1038, 0.1684, 0.1414, 0.0406, 0.0872, -0.0135, -0.0135, 0.1985, 0.2752, 0.409, 0.2872, 0.2211, 0.1789, 0.1308, 0.006, -0.0737, 0.015, 0.1564, 0.1639, 0.1699, 0.1699, 0.1579, 0.0737, 0.0511, 0.0436, 0.1398, 0.0752, 0.0602, 0.1143, 0.0526, 0.0602, -0.0135, -0.0271, 0.012, -0.0797, -0.0556, -0.0436, -0.0346, -0.0571, -0.0556, -0.0556, -0.0962, -0.1233, -0.1218, -0.1233, -0.1233, -0.0872, -0.0496, 0.0421, -0.0797, -0.0331, 0.0962, 0.0556, 0.018, -0.0015, -0.0526, 0.003, 0.003, -0.0391, -0.0256, -0.0346, -0.0962, -0.1173, -0.1263, -0.1338, -0.1609, -0.2256, -0.2752, -0.2286, -0.2481, -0.2932, -0.2662, -0.2571, -0.2947, -0.2842, -0.3414, -0.3316, -0.3316, -0.3489, -0.3038, -0.3008, -0.2481, -0.2812, -0.2316, -0.2511, -0.1865, -0.185, -0.2406]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1965221589991014892", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-09T01:11:53+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The $OPEN model has NEVER worked, in good times or bad... margins will be extremely low (2%) and the vast majority of buyers will still want to use an agent", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish Opendoor: model has never worked in any environment, new model will face 2% margins and persistent agent preference.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The $OPEN  model has NEVER worked, in good times or bad, so your statement makes zero sense. I  am also highly doubtful of any “new” model, as margins will be extremely low (2%) and the vast majority of buyers will still want to use an agent. That is how my brain thinks. How about you? Please explain the new model and why you think it will work.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @rabois @TrueDeke @8bitsteveo @Abe_Blinkoln @ericjackson Pulling data from the worst time to buy a house since we’ve all been alive is funny. Shows how your brain thinks", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "kbkTwitty", "ret_m1d": -0.011456656322708425, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.011456656322708425, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.009150009292464234, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.011934103605160007, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.002306647030244191, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00047744728245158186, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04091652938413326, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04091652938413326, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.04380723978738843, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04043879942123041, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00289071040325517, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047772996290285086, "ret_p1w": 0.4599017809126069, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.4599017809126069, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.44503250482855483, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.4558426780838236, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014869276084052085, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004059102828783301, "ret_p1m": 0.3895253004249626, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.3895253004249626, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.3516274161482713, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.39536651504632625, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.037897884276691274, "bench_c_p1m": -0.005841214621363666, "ret_p3m": 0.17021275599462737, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.17021275599462737, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1129172303660595, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1839937106818933, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05729552562856788, "bench_c_p3m": -0.013780954687265923, "ret_p6m": -0.2013093276916189, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2013093276916189, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.26086310517248856, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.265681131635765, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05955377748086965, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0643718039441461, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.3895253004249626, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.3516274161482713, "alpha_c_stated": -0.39536651504632625, "price_path": [-0.9016, -0.9059, -0.909, -0.9072, -0.9051, -0.9051, -0.9124, -0.9133, -0.91, -0.9162, -0.9119, -0.9087, -0.9128, -0.9075, -0.9074, -0.9002, -0.9002, -0.8975, -0.8802, -0.8794, -0.8555, -0.8725, -0.8525, -0.8298, -0.7561, -0.73, -0.6318, -0.4746, -0.5286, -0.6252, -0.6039, -0.5843, -0.617, -0.6645, -0.6612, -0.6989, -0.6563, -0.5974, -0.5876, -0.689, -0.6972, -0.6809, -0.6219, -0.5957, -0.6039, -0.5025, -0.4812, -0.3813, -0.4075, -0.473, -0.4108, -0.18, -0.257, -0.2308, -0.3421, -0.3011, -0.2717, -0.2717, -0.1669, -0.1604, -0.0245, 0.0884, -0.0115, 0.0, -0.0409, 0.7218, 0.4845, 0.554, 0.4599, 0.671, 0.6268, 0.5663, 0.3715, 0.1604, 0.347, 0.4877, 0.4419, 0.3421, 0.3044, 0.3191, 0.311, 0.3273, 0.5188, 0.5205, 0.3895, 0.3322, 0.239, 0.1899, 0.2504, 0.2079, 0.1637, 0.1718, 0.2062, 0.1391, 0.1162, 0.1506, 0.3044, 0.3355, 0.3044, 0.252, 0.2013, 0.2717, 0.2422, 0.1326, 0.1833, 0.0736, 0.0736, 0.3044, 0.3879, 0.5336, 0.401, 0.329, 0.2831, 0.2308, 0.0949, 0.0082, 0.1047, 0.2586, 0.2668, 0.2733, 0.2733, 0.2602, 0.1686, 0.144, 0.1358, 0.2406, 0.1702, 0.1538, 0.2128, 0.1457, 0.1538, 0.0736, 0.0589, 0.1015, 0.0016, 0.0278, 0.0409, 0.0507, 0.0262, 0.0278, 0.0278, -0.0164, -0.0458, -0.0442, -0.0458, -0.0458, -0.0065, 0.0344, 0.1342, 0.0016, 0.0524, 0.1931, 0.1489, 0.108, 0.0867, 0.0311, 0.0917, 0.0917, 0.0458, 0.0606, 0.0507, -0.0164, -0.0393, -0.0491, -0.0573, -0.0867, -0.1571, -0.2111, -0.1604, -0.1817, -0.2308, -0.2013, -0.1915, -0.2324, -0.2209, -0.2831, -0.2725, -0.2725, -0.2913, -0.2422, -0.239, -0.1817, -0.2177, -0.1637, -0.1849, -0.1146, -0.1129, -0.1735, -0.1866, -0.2013]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1965223301112103270", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-09T01:18:41+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The $OPEN model has NEVER worked, in good times or bad, so your statement makes zero sense. I am also highly doubtful of any \"new\" model, as margins will be extremely low (2%) and the vast majority of buyers will still want to use an agent.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: business model has never worked in any environment; low 2% margins and agent-preference undermine any new model thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@kbkTwitty @rabois @TrueDeke @8bitsteveo @Abe_Blinkoln @ericjackson The $OPEN  model has NEVER worked, in good times or bad, so your statement makes zero sense. I  am also highly doubtful of any “new” model, as margins will be extremely low (2%) and the vast majority of buyers will still want to use an agent.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @rabois @TrueDeke @8bitsteveo @Abe_Blinkoln @ericjackson Well for starters looking at financials for a real estate business during the worst time for real estate in our lifetime isn’t a good start. Second if they partner with palantir they can cash offer every house in the country THE DAY it is listed before anyone else", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "kbkTwitty", "ret_m1d": -0.011456656322708425, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.011456656322708425, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.009150009292464234, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.011934103605160007, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.002306647030244191, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00047744728245158186, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04091652938413326, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04091652938413326, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.04380723978738843, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04043879942123041, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00289071040325517, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047772996290285086, "ret_p1w": 0.4599017809126069, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.4599017809126069, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.44503250482855483, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.4558426780838236, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014869276084052085, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004059102828783301, "ret_p1m": 0.3895253004249626, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.3895253004249626, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.3516274161482713, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.39536651504632625, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.037897884276691274, "bench_c_p1m": -0.005841214621363666, "ret_p3m": 0.17021275599462737, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.17021275599462737, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1129172303660595, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1839937106818933, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05729552562856788, "bench_c_p3m": -0.013780954687265923, "ret_p6m": -0.2013093276916189, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2013093276916189, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.26086310517248856, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.265681131635765, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05955377748086965, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0643718039441461, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.3895253004249626, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.3516274161482713, "alpha_c_stated": -0.39536651504632625, "price_path": [-0.9016, -0.9059, -0.909, -0.9072, -0.9051, -0.9051, -0.9124, -0.9133, -0.91, -0.9162, -0.9119, -0.9087, -0.9128, -0.9075, -0.9074, -0.9002, -0.9002, -0.8975, -0.8802, -0.8794, -0.8555, -0.8725, -0.8525, -0.8298, -0.7561, -0.73, -0.6318, -0.4746, -0.5286, -0.6252, -0.6039, -0.5843, -0.617, -0.6645, -0.6612, -0.6989, -0.6563, -0.5974, -0.5876, -0.689, -0.6972, -0.6809, -0.6219, -0.5957, -0.6039, -0.5025, -0.4812, -0.3813, -0.4075, -0.473, -0.4108, -0.18, -0.257, -0.2308, -0.3421, -0.3011, -0.2717, -0.2717, -0.1669, -0.1604, -0.0245, 0.0884, -0.0115, 0.0, -0.0409, 0.7218, 0.4845, 0.554, 0.4599, 0.671, 0.6268, 0.5663, 0.3715, 0.1604, 0.347, 0.4877, 0.4419, 0.3421, 0.3044, 0.3191, 0.311, 0.3273, 0.5188, 0.5205, 0.3895, 0.3322, 0.239, 0.1899, 0.2504, 0.2079, 0.1637, 0.1718, 0.2062, 0.1391, 0.1162, 0.1506, 0.3044, 0.3355, 0.3044, 0.252, 0.2013, 0.2717, 0.2422, 0.1326, 0.1833, 0.0736, 0.0736, 0.3044, 0.3879, 0.5336, 0.401, 0.329, 0.2831, 0.2308, 0.0949, 0.0082, 0.1047, 0.2586, 0.2668, 0.2733, 0.2733, 0.2602, 0.1686, 0.144, 0.1358, 0.2406, 0.1702, 0.1538, 0.2128, 0.1457, 0.1538, 0.0736, 0.0589, 0.1015, 0.0016, 0.0278, 0.0409, 0.0507, 0.0262, 0.0278, 0.0278, -0.0164, -0.0458, -0.0442, -0.0458, -0.0458, -0.0065, 0.0344, 0.1342, 0.0016, 0.0524, 0.1931, 0.1489, 0.108, 0.0867, 0.0311, 0.0917, 0.0917, 0.0458, 0.0606, 0.0507, -0.0164, -0.0393, -0.0491, -0.0573, -0.0867, -0.1571, -0.2111, -0.1604, -0.1817, -0.2308, -0.2013, -0.1915, -0.2324, -0.2209, -0.2831, -0.2725, -0.2725, -0.2913, -0.2422, -0.239, -0.1817, -0.2177, -0.1637, -0.1849, -0.1146, -0.1129, -0.1735, -0.1866, -0.2013]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1924109621905555951", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-05-18T14:27:36+00:00", "symbol": "TLT", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Beware the long end of the US bond market. Austerity is not a thing as US fiscal spending is +7% y/y. DOGE is performative theater. There is also a huge amount of treasuries coming to market", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short long-end US Treasuries: fiscal spending +7% YoY, DOGE ineffective, heavy supply coming, and Moody's downgrade confirms unsustainable fiscal path.", "resolved_tickers": ["TLT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Beware the long end of the US bond market.  Austerity is not a thing as US fiscal spending is +7% y/y. DOGE is performative theater. There is also a huge amount of treasuries coming to market (don’t forget that Bessent is continuing the Yellen putz policy of limiting issuance at the long end - What’s the matter Scott, you worried about putting pressure on the long end? Or like a homeowner with a short term ARM, you are just hoping/praying that rates go down?)\n\n---\n\nThe Moody’s downgrade is behind the curve and only belatedly acknowledging the atrocious, unsustainable state of the US fiscal situation.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.002905433823775727, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.002905433823775727, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003997954283042171, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.003997954283042171, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.001092520459266444, "bench_c_m1d": -0.001092520459266444, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007205055291083062, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007205055291083062, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.003842901614866223, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.003842901614866223, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.003362153676216839, "bench_c_p1d": -0.003362153676216839, "ret_p1w": -0.01743167242964394, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01743167242964394, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.00902875689551974, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.00902875689551974, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02646042932516368, "bench_c_p1w": -0.02646042932516368, "ret_p1m": 0.008971727292691023, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.008971727292691023, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.004466276968243754, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.004466276968243754, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.004505450324447269, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004505450324447269, "ret_p3m": 0.022718568201020695, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.022718568201020695, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.0647097052295893, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0647097052295893, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08742827343060999, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08742827343060999, "ret_p6m": 0.06883246671554955, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.06883246671554955, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.08594334600521769, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.08594334600521769, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.15477581272076724, "bench_c_p6m": 0.15477581272076724, "ret_p1y": 0.04575453438989974, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.04575453438989974, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.20202619238384356, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.20202619238384356, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2477807267737433, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2477807267737433, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.008971727292691023, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.004466276968243754, "alpha_c_stated": -0.004466276968243754, "price_path": [0.0145, 0.0183, 0.0306, 0.0336, 0.0514, 0.0576, 0.0501, 0.063, 0.068, 0.0548, 0.0464, 0.043, 0.0396, 0.0505, 0.043, 0.0367, 0.0458, 0.0403, 0.0455, 0.0465, 0.052, 0.0526, 0.0464, 0.0357, 0.0356, 0.0288, 0.0258, 0.04, 0.0502, 0.0593, 0.0586, 0.0635, 0.0751, 0.0426, 0.023, 0.029, 0.0006, 0.0061, 0.0132, 0.0168, 0.0225, 0.0135, 0.0135, -0.0042, 0.0013, 0.011, 0.0217, 0.0292, 0.0357, 0.0444, 0.0359, 0.0307, 0.0195, 0.0138, 0.0172, 0.0215, 0.0101, 0.0116, 0.0022, -0.0019, -0.0085, 0.0002, 0.0029, 0.0, -0.0072, -0.0242, -0.0191, -0.0174, -0.0174, -0.0037, -0.008, 0.0012, 0.0027, -0.0067, -0.0084, 0.0077, 0.0084, -0.0044, -0.0034, 0.0017, 0.0048, 0.0168, 0.007, -0.0032, 0.009, 0.0107, 0.0107, 0.0089, 0.0121, 0.0195, 0.0208, 0.0259, 0.0194, 0.0294, 0.0319, 0.0254, 0.0182, 0.0182, 0.0085, 0.0072, 0.0178, 0.0185, 0.0044, 0.0023, -0.0047, -0.0033, -0.0035, -0.002, 0.0069, 0.013, 0.0074, 0.0056, 0.0119, 0.0054, 0.0223, 0.0171, 0.0177, 0.0321, 0.0349, 0.0381, 0.0321, 0.0304, 0.0259, 0.0271, 0.0219, 0.0304, 0.0227, 0.0154, 0.0125, 0.0184, 0.0206, 0.0155, 0.0231, 0.0201, 0.0195, 0.0184, 0.0251, 0.0178, 0.0178, 0.0102, 0.0213, 0.0291, 0.0448, 0.0587, 0.0527, 0.0587, 0.0658, 0.0612, 0.0637, 0.0659, 0.0632, 0.0522, 0.0502, 0.0464, 0.0537, 0.0497, 0.0497, 0.0488, 0.0574, 0.0543, 0.0571, 0.0601, 0.0581, 0.0497, 0.0558, 0.0566, 0.0558, 0.0728, 0.0722, 0.0756, 0.0733, 0.0813, 0.0797, 0.0838, 0.0891, 0.0898, 0.0824, 0.0829, 0.0865, 0.0894, 0.0784, 0.0721, 0.0689, 0.0662, 0.0686, 0.057, 0.0665, 0.0642, 0.064, 0.0688]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1964777135857700925", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-07T19:45:47+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN stock should be $1.50 on a like for like basis. All $OPEN shareholders ignore this warning their peril.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: on net-revenue EV/Rev basis it trades 4x more expensive than UBER, implying fair value of ~$1.50; balance sheet weak and loss-making.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@ericjackson Are you dishonest or financially illiterate? Which is it?\n$UBER is presently selling around 4x EV/Rev. https://t.co/YWyb1jVqe5\n\n---\n\nTo make an equivalent comparison for $OPEN, one must take the NET revenues (as $UBER does) of $400mm, not the gross revenues of $5B. With an equity market cap of $4.8b  and debt of $2.2b, that equated to an EV/Rev multiple of 17 for $OPEN. https://t.co/po0S9jreuR\n\n---\n\nSo comparing $OPEN with $UBER on a simple EV/Revs basis, $OPEN is over 4x as expensive. Put another way, $OPEN stock should be $1.50 on a like for like basis. And this of course ignores the fact that $UBER has great balance sheet and is profitable, while $OPEN has a lousy balance sheet and is loss making. Again, are you dishonest or financially illiterate? \nAll $OPEN shareholders ignore this warning their peril.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.10099340022632397, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10099340022632397, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.10344395820976915, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09431072704026411, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0024505579834451785, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006682673186059862, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011589432467463467, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011589432467463467, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00927745251552925, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012066651902792436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0023119799519342177, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047721943532896827, "ret_p1w": 0.5720198585309404, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.5720198585309404, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.5534017050180586, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.5624733978236554, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018618153512881763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009546460707285043, "ret_p1m": 0.5380794735970369, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.5393449009372934, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03413099875479508, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0012654273402564753, "ret_p3m": 0.254966882711795, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.254966882711795, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.19723595958997908, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.268978034031231, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.057730923121815936, "bench_c_p3m": -0.014011151319435977, "ret_p6m": -0.17715234742039776, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17715234742039776, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23171547375600654, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.23955761813812093, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05456312633560878, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06240527071772317, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_stated": -0.5393449009372934, "price_path": [-0.8993, -0.9005, -0.9048, -0.9079, -0.9061, -0.904, -0.904, -0.9114, -0.9123, -0.9089, -0.9152, -0.9109, -0.9076, -0.9118, -0.9065, -0.9063, -0.899, -0.899, -0.8964, -0.8788, -0.878, -0.8538, -0.871, -0.8508, -0.8278, -0.7533, -0.7268, -0.6275, -0.4685, -0.5232, -0.6209, -0.5993, -0.5795, -0.6126, -0.6606, -0.6573, -0.6954, -0.6523, -0.5927, -0.5828, -0.6854, -0.6937, -0.6772, -0.6175, -0.5911, -0.5993, -0.4967, -0.4752, -0.3742, -0.4007, -0.4669, -0.404, -0.1705, -0.2483, -0.2219, -0.3344, -0.293, -0.2632, -0.2632, -0.1573, -0.1507, -0.0132, 0.101, 0.0, 0.0116, -0.0298, 0.7417, 0.5017, 0.572, 0.4768, 0.6904, 0.6457, 0.5844, 0.3874, 0.1738, 0.3626, 0.505, 0.4586, 0.3576, 0.3195, 0.3344, 0.3262, 0.3427, 0.5364, 0.5381, 0.4056, 0.3477, 0.2533, 0.2036, 0.2649, 0.2219, 0.1772, 0.1854, 0.2202, 0.1523, 0.1291, 0.1639, 0.3195, 0.351, 0.3195, 0.2666, 0.2152, 0.2864, 0.2566, 0.1457, 0.197, 0.0861, 0.0861, 0.3195, 0.404, 0.5513, 0.4172, 0.3444, 0.298, 0.245, 0.1076, 0.0199, 0.1175, 0.2732, 0.2815, 0.2881, 0.2881, 0.2748, 0.1821, 0.1573, 0.149, 0.255, 0.1838, 0.1672, 0.2268, 0.1589, 0.1672, 0.0861, 0.0712, 0.1142, 0.0132, 0.0397, 0.053, 0.0629, 0.0381, 0.0397, 0.0397, -0.005, -0.0348, -0.0331, -0.0348, -0.0348, 0.005, 0.0464, 0.1474, 0.0132, 0.0646, 0.207, 0.1623, 0.1209, 0.0993, 0.043, 0.1043, 0.1043, 0.0579, 0.0728, 0.0629, -0.005, -0.0281, -0.0381, -0.0464, -0.0762, -0.1474, -0.202, -0.1507, -0.1722, -0.2219, -0.1921, -0.1821, -0.2235, -0.2119, -0.2748, -0.2641, -0.2641, -0.2831, -0.2334, -0.2301, -0.1722, -0.2086, -0.154, -0.1755, -0.1043, -0.1026, -0.1639, -0.1772]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1930072891061649609", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-06-04T01:23:30+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": true, "quote": "Pay no attention to the fact that $TSLA is on 11x falling revenues, that resale values have been are in free fall and that estimates are collapsing", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Sarcastically mocks TSLA bulls; bearish on falling revenues, collapsing resale values, and deteriorating estimates.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Uh oh…but @BradMunchen you silly analyst…it’s all about the robots, the FSD, the AI. Pay no attention to the fact that $TSLA  is on 11x falling revenues, that resale values have been are in free fall and that estimates are collapsing. Get with the program! @RealJimChanos @GordonJohnson19", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03680169152218804, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03680169152218804, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.036533106972114426, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.034148843856245836, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0002685845500736139, "bench_c_m1d": 0.002652847665942204, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.14259893789082123, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.14259893789082123, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.13776628548752434, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.11737443734013486, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004832652403296889, "bench_c_p1d": -0.02522450055068637, "ret_p1w": -0.016925147790372908, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.016925147790372908, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.026037081180573685, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.01622718851800331, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009111933390200777, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0006979592723695971, "ret_p1m": -0.050293577182317084, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.050293577182317084, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10274732969588307, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08198890318602625, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05245375251356599, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03169532600370917, "ret_p3m": 0.005481124502716428, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.005481124502716428, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08014468944297026, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0753247301506359, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08562581394568669, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08080585465335233, "ret_p6m": 0.2846860480483915, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.2846860480483915, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.13760609491462983, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.1867428978782084, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.14707995313376165, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09794315017018307, "ret_p1y": 0.2829695088898476, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.2829695088898476, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.017405132881032737, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.16487956207804477, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2655643760088149, "bench_c_p1y": 0.11808994681180285, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.050293577182317084, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10274732969588307, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08198890318602625, "price_path": [-0.2089, -0.331, -0.3056, -0.2529, -0.2752, -0.2472, -0.2832, -0.3215, -0.2897, -0.2885, -0.251, -0.1616, -0.1322, -0.1807, -0.1774, -0.2063, -0.2195, -0.1915, -0.1484, -0.1951, -0.2789, -0.2974, -0.3318, -0.1802, -0.2399, -0.2401, -0.24, -0.2347, -0.2725, -0.2731, -0.2731, -0.3149, -0.2833, -0.2449, -0.2185, -0.1418, -0.139, -0.1205, -0.1502, -0.1552, -0.135, -0.156, -0.1708, -0.1681, -0.1422, -0.1018, -0.0412, 0.0061, 0.0471, 0.0324, 0.054, 0.0302, 0.0354, 0.0077, 0.0271, 0.022, 0.022, 0.0929, 0.0748, 0.0794, 0.0434, 0.032, 0.0368, 0.0, -0.1426, -0.1112, -0.0707, -0.0179, -0.0169, -0.039, -0.0203, -0.0088, -0.0473, -0.0301, -0.0301, -0.0298, 0.0501, 0.0254, -0.0136, -0.0189, -0.0254, -0.0433, -0.0944, -0.0494, -0.0503, -0.0503, -0.1148, -0.1031, -0.1089, -0.0668, -0.0558, -0.0456, -0.0641, -0.0313, -0.0381, -0.0072, -0.0107, 0.0002, 0.0015, -0.0806, -0.0482, -0.0195, -0.0327, -0.0392, -0.0716, -0.0886, -0.0686, -0.0703, -0.0366, -0.0295, -0.0072, 0.021, 0.0265, 0.0221, 0.0106, -0.0045, 0.0094, -0.0083, -0.0245, -0.036, 0.024, 0.0438, 0.0591, 0.0529, 0.042, 0.0055, 0.0055, -0.0081, 0.0061, 0.0195, 0.0566, 0.0432, 0.0449, 0.0474, 0.1107, 0.1924, 0.2349, 0.2697, 0.2825, 0.2554, 0.2832, 0.3077, 0.2825, 0.3335, 0.2751, 0.3263, 0.3348, 0.3393, 0.3837, 0.3131, 0.2945, 0.365, 0.3043, 0.3212, 0.3117, 0.2453, 0.3128, 0.2927, 0.3105, 0.2912, 0.323, 0.3475, 0.3329, 0.322, 0.3521, 0.3062, 0.3625, 0.387, 0.3899, 0.3254, 0.375, 0.4105, 0.3379, 0.3916, 0.3429, 0.2935, 0.3409, 0.324, 0.2968, 0.2106, 0.2177, 0.2315, 0.2084, 0.2167, 0.1903, 0.1778, 0.2582, 0.2631, 0.2847, 0.2847]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1945150739468185707", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-07-15T15:57:30+00:00", "symbol": "UNH", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I have previously warned about $UNH. To paraphrase one particularly obnoxious, vulgar FURU, I say to the $UNH bulls, \"EVERYBODY'S WRONG.\"", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish UNH; endorses chart-based warning and tells bulls they are all wrong.", "resolved_tickers": ["UNH"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLV", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Healthcare Plans'", "bench_c_industry": "Healthcare Plans", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Especially for all those who do zero fundamental work and instead only focus on price, @daChartLife is serving notice on $UNH.\n\nI have previously warned about $UNH. To paraphrase one particularly obnoxious, vulgar FURU, I say to the $UNH bulls, “EVERYBODY’S WRONG.” https://t.co/qs7V6Vs9jD", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.030407020666895823, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030407020666895823, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.026115370152028694, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012081078827993252, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004291650514867129, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01832594183890257, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0026739556206938353, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0026739556206938353, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0006694172876895443, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.00976946660493172, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0033433729083833796, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012443422225625556, "ret_p1w": -0.022556485472954302, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.022556485472954302, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.033358022079445604, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.02956991661333319, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010801536606491302, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00701343114037889, "ret_p1m": -0.06821836226475331, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06821836226475331, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10478577190758587, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07342191346042382, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03656740964283256, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005203551195670508, "ret_p3m": 0.22291496073497097, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.22291496073497097, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1703697677684135, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.14629421195656378, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.052545192966557464, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07662074877840719, "ret_p6m": 0.18668438203889837, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.18668438203889837, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.07192702009165197, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.028045380569202027, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1147573619472464, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2147297626081004, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06821836226475331, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10478577190758587, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07342191346042382, "price_path": [0.5457, 0.5457, 0.4478, 0.4541, 0.4567, 0.4441, 0.425, 0.4296, 0.393, 0.4005, 0.3639, 0.3613, 0.3779, 0.3429, 0.3311, 0.3124, 0.2957, 0.2892, 0.0599, 0.0484, -0.0661, -0.0064, 0.0753, 0.0946, 0.0313, 0.0098, 0.0061, 0.0061, 0.0042, 0.0147, 0.0149, 0.0277, 0.0372, 0.0253, 0.0225, 0.007, 0.0321, 0.032, 0.0341, 0.0571, 0.0841, 0.0672, 0.0547, 0.0588, 0.0531, 0.0531, 0.0353, 0.0307, 0.0477, 0.0353, 0.0374, 0.0596, 0.0695, 0.118, 0.0543, 0.0577, 0.0577, 0.0411, 0.0548, 0.0384, 0.0267, 0.0425, 0.0304, 0.0, 0.0027, -0.0125, -0.0311, -0.0328, -0.0226, 0.0027, -0.045, -0.0365, -0.0329, -0.105, -0.088, -0.1445, -0.1849, -0.1739, -0.1396, -0.1575, -0.1613, -0.1399, -0.1349, -0.1033, -0.0682, -0.0693, 0.0422, 0.0575, 0.043, 0.0279, 0.0399, 0.0539, 0.0451, 0.0299, 0.0417, 0.0363, 0.0623, 0.0623, 0.0586, 0.0554, 0.064, 0.0812, 0.0978, 0.1927, 0.1888, 0.2122, 0.2084, 0.2001, 0.1721, 0.1784, 0.155, 0.1615, 0.1774, 0.1994, 0.2136, 0.1921, 0.187, 0.1908, 0.1912, 0.2015, 0.2202, 0.2426, 0.2376, 0.2545, 0.2761, 0.2684, 0.2229, 0.2373, 0.2416, 0.2459, 0.2304, 0.2302, 0.2573, 0.2604, 0.247, 0.2434, 0.2505, 0.2625, 0.2689, 0.2255, 0.1893, 0.1783, 0.1515, 0.1413, 0.1306, 0.1093, 0.1184, 0.1094, 0.1296, 0.1697, 0.1471, 0.1103, 0.1057, 0.0818, 0.0663, 0.0747, 0.1038, 0.1006, 0.1256, 0.1374, 0.1374, 0.1376, 0.115, 0.1196, 0.1719, 0.1504, 0.1415, 0.1239, 0.1238, 0.1404, 0.1694, 0.1872, 0.1846, 0.1606, 0.1517, 0.1396, 0.1371, 0.1292, 0.128, 0.1376, 0.1376, 0.1524, 0.1424, 0.1536, 0.1464, 0.1464, 0.1683, 0.1878, 0.2119, 0.1867]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1912560172523724862", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-16T17:34:13+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "still believes #gold will move further up and to the right. NUMBER (will continue to) GO UP. $GLD #GDX", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Remains bullish on gold/gold miners; expects continued upside from here.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@daChartLife has been correctly bullish for a long while but still believes #gold will move further up and to the right. NUMBER (will continue to) GO UP. $GLD #GDX", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Yo, Charts - Shakira was right, “Charts don’t lie.” https://t.co/55dHszqxjs", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03151527759760453, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03151527759760453, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05424843757878406, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05424843757878406, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.02273315998117953, "bench_c_m1d": 0.02273315998117953, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.004390692094044635, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004390692094044635, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.005817291460764595, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.005817291460764595, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0014265993667199606, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014265993667199606, "ret_p1w": -0.012424000094489629, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.012424000094489629, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.030990985975912877, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.030990985975912877, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018566985881423248, "bench_c_p1w": 0.018566985881423248, "ret_p1m": -0.03132014454932153, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03132014454932153, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.15459370734112332, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.15459370734112332, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1232735627918018, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1232735627918018, "ret_p3m": 0.0017562966883857278, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.0017562966883857278, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1903775314254652, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1903775314254652, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.19213382811385094, "bench_c_p3m": 0.19213382811385094, "ret_p6m": 0.1885061671869388, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1885061671869388, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.09561353057557498, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.09561353057557498, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.2841196977625138, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2841196977625138, "ret_p1y": 0.39659154375153904, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.39659154375153904, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.1346577268470195, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.1346577268470195, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26193381690451956, "bench_c_p1y": 0.26193381690451956, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03132014454932153, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.15459370734112332, "alpha_c_stated": -0.15459370734112332, "price_path": [-0.1893, -0.1893, -0.1767, -0.1725, -0.1737, -0.1685, -0.1772, -0.1701, -0.1733, -0.1607, -0.1591, -0.1546, -0.1463, -0.141, -0.1432, -0.1417, -0.1272, -0.1304, -0.1294, -0.1209, -0.1339, -0.1339, -0.1196, -0.1191, -0.1186, -0.1195, -0.1147, -0.1264, -0.125, -0.1384, -0.1438, -0.1325, -0.1249, -0.1231, -0.1276, -0.1271, -0.1347, -0.1246, -0.1208, -0.1052, -0.1048, -0.1, -0.0895, -0.0857, -0.0869, -0.0943, -0.0983, -0.0943, -0.0951, -0.0829, -0.0761, -0.0629, -0.0647, -0.0628, -0.0685, -0.0903, -0.1098, -0.105, -0.0718, -0.0492, -0.031, -0.0366, -0.0315, 0.0, -0.0044, -0.0044, 0.0264, 0.0118, -0.0124, 0.002, -0.0089, 0.0052, -0.0046, -0.012, -0.0326, -0.0309, -0.0019, 0.0261, 0.0107, -0.0092, -0.002, -0.0302, -0.0261, -0.0465, -0.0313, -0.043, -0.0307, -0.0127, -0.0054, -0.0142, 0.0074, 0.0074, -0.0097, -0.0119, -0.006, -0.0126, 0.0137, 0.0047, 0.0112, 0.006, -0.0074, -0.0028, -0.0025, 0.0029, 0.0154, 0.0287, 0.014, 0.0145, 0.0091, 0.0091, 0.0087, 0.0117, -0.0042, -0.0011, -0.0022, -0.0203, -0.0086, 0.0003, 0.0058, -0.0011, -0.0011, -0.0003, -0.0108, -0.0063, -0.0041, 0.0054, 0.0018, -0.0024, 0.0026, 0.0004, 0.003, 0.0184, 0.0281, 0.0153, 0.0091, -0.0002, -0.0067, -0.004, -0.0212, -0.0147, 0.0053, 0.0112, 0.012, 0.0099, 0.0184, 0.0181, 0.0035, 0.0026, 0.0057, -0.0007, -0.0001, -0.0017, -0.0072, 0.0029, -0.0006, 0.0101, 0.0077, 0.015, 0.017, 0.0246, 0.0345, 0.0345, 0.0589, 0.0672, 0.0625, 0.0767, 0.089, 0.0865, 0.0904, 0.0888, 0.0909, 0.1023, 0.1045, 0.0959, 0.0916, 0.1031, 0.1222, 0.1268, 0.1166, 0.1212, 0.1277, 0.1463, 0.1561, 0.1579, 0.1539, 0.1632, 0.1851, 0.1912, 0.2108, 0.1885]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1912560172523724862", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-04-16T17:34:13+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "still believes #gold will move further up and to the right. NUMBER (will continue to) GO UP. $GLD #GDX", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Remains bullish on gold/gold miners; expects continued upside from here.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@daChartLife has been correctly bullish for a long while but still believes #gold will move further up and to the right. NUMBER (will continue to) GO UP. $GLD #GDX", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Yo, Charts - Shakira was right, “Charts don’t lie.” https://t.co/55dHszqxjs", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02658452467424144, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02658452467424144, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04931768465542097, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04931768465542097, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.02273315998117953, "bench_c_m1d": 0.02273315998117953, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.01907152131378631, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.01907152131378631, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.02049812068050627, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.02049812068050627, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0014265993667199606, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014265993667199606, "ret_p1w": -0.061259856472834495, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.061259856472834495, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07982684235425774, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07982684235425774, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018566985881423248, "bench_c_p1w": 0.018566985881423248, "ret_p1m": -0.10441141996644354, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.10441141996644354, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.22768498275824534, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.22768498275824534, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1232735627918018, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1232735627918018, "ret_p3m": 0.01040261434367129, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.01040261434367129, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.18173121377017964, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.18173121377017964, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.19213382811385094, "bench_c_p3m": 0.19213382811385094, "ret_p6m": 0.45655949761420933, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.45655949761420933, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.17243979985169555, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.17243979985169555, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.2841196977625138, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2841196977625138, "ret_p1y": 0.8354262990425378, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.8354262990425378, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.5734924821380183, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.5734924821380183, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26193381690451956, "bench_c_p1y": 0.26193381690451956, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.10441141996644354, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.22768498275824534, "alpha_c_stated": -0.22768498275824534, "price_path": [-0.292, -0.292, -0.2755, -0.277, -0.2776, -0.2689, -0.2805, -0.2737, -0.2699, -0.2406, -0.2495, -0.2379, -0.2289, -0.2094, -0.2077, -0.2129, -0.1917, -0.2017, -0.1884, -0.1811, -0.2086, -0.2086, -0.1998, -0.1998, -0.1863, -0.214, -0.2107, -0.2221, -0.2129, -0.2398, -0.2348, -0.235, -0.224, -0.1967, -0.2032, -0.1978, -0.2196, -0.194, -0.1928, -0.1676, -0.1593, -0.1414, -0.136, -0.1287, -0.13, -0.1427, -0.1476, -0.1327, -0.1395, -0.1185, -0.1221, -0.1144, -0.1177, -0.1185, -0.1192, -0.1971, -0.2015, -0.2005, -0.1333, -0.0913, -0.0426, -0.0364, -0.0266, 0.0, -0.0191, -0.0191, -0.0048, -0.0324, -0.0613, -0.0414, -0.0597, -0.0478, -0.0661, -0.0559, -0.0907, -0.093, -0.0615, -0.0216, -0.0403, -0.0584, -0.0297, -0.1019, -0.1034, -0.1225, -0.1044, -0.1075, -0.088, -0.0597, -0.0476, -0.0526, -0.0266, -0.0266, -0.0412, -0.0301, -0.0314, -0.0243, 0.0358, 0.0227, 0.025, 0.0239, -0.0056, 0.0042, -0.0092, 0.0006, 0.0312, 0.0491, 0.0316, 0.0308, 0.021, 0.021, 0.0073, 0.0231, -0.001, 0.0002, 0.0137, -0.0227, 0.0029, 0.0025, 0.0144, 0.0193, 0.0193, 0.0243, -0.0216, -0.0079, -0.0002, 0.0098, 0.0104, -0.0056, -0.0017, -0.0129, -0.015, 0.0214, 0.0495, 0.0372, 0.0274, 0.0395, 0.0131, 0.0258, -0.0025, -0.0052, 0.0104, 0.0584, 0.0877, 0.1056, 0.1162, 0.1185, 0.1113, 0.1214, 0.1187, 0.1115, 0.1227, 0.1192, 0.0903, 0.1235, 0.1422, 0.1593, 0.1609, 0.1867, 0.1844, 0.1815, 0.2169, 0.2169, 0.2483, 0.256, 0.2439, 0.278, 0.2953, 0.2878, 0.3196, 0.3439, 0.3437, 0.3577, 0.3296, 0.3227, 0.3252, 0.394, 0.4319, 0.43, 0.3932, 0.4088, 0.4386, 0.4587, 0.4718, 0.4858, 0.4853, 0.4849, 0.5144, 0.4828, 0.5248, 0.4566]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1966206755622293840", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-11T18:26:35+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": true, "quote": "DEGEN SPECULATORS RAMP $OPEN TO 25X EV/SALES. COMPANY HAS CUMULATIVE LOSSES OF $3B. ARMY SAYS WE DONT CARE ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS.", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Sarcastically mocks $OPEN being ramped to 25x EV/Sales despite $3B cumulative losses; implied bearish.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "zxx", "tweet_text": "https://t.co/I8aGqZ9iTa\n\n---\n\nDEGEN SPECULATORS RAMP $OPEN TO 25X  EV/SALES. COMPANY HAS CUMULATIVE LOSSES OF $3B. ARMY SAYS WE DONT CARE ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS. \n(There, I fixed it)", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.44296579101479283, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.44296579101479283, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.4347238984593059, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.4269808181898125, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008241892555486907, "bench_c_m1d": -0.015984972824980348, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.1378327661449259, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.1378327661449259, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.1374982295747299, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.1333665062771734, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0003345365701959979, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004466259867752509, "ret_p1w": -0.055133160850039276, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.055133160850039276, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.062173536927324524, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04384979249640231, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.007040376077285249, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011283368353636969, "ret_p1m": -0.28041826594458175, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.28041826594458175, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.2761611590600068, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.24399356327702437, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.004257106884574924, "bench_c_p1m": -0.036424702667557374, "ret_p3m": -0.2956274215802347, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2956274215802347, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3371457090007307, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.25493915039646065, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.041518287420496014, "bench_c_p3m": -0.04068827118377405, "ret_p6m": -0.5247148495787335, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5247148495787335, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5530079163763495, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5517407032548727, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.028293066797616007, "bench_c_p6m": 0.02702585367613919, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.28041826594458175, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.2761611590600068, "alpha_c_stated": 0.24399356327702437, "price_path": [-0.9471, -0.9461, -0.9449, -0.9449, -0.9491, -0.9496, -0.9477, -0.9513, -0.9489, -0.947, -0.9493, -0.9463, -0.9462, -0.942, -0.942, -0.9405, -0.9304, -0.9299, -0.9161, -0.926, -0.9144, -0.9011, -0.8584, -0.8432, -0.7861, -0.6949, -0.7262, -0.7823, -0.77, -0.7586, -0.7776, -0.8051, -0.8032, -0.8251, -0.8004, -0.7662, -0.7605, -0.8194, -0.8241, -0.8146, -0.7804, -0.7652, -0.77, -0.711, -0.6987, -0.6407, -0.6559, -0.6939, -0.6578, -0.5238, -0.5684, -0.5532, -0.6179, -0.5941, -0.577, -0.577, -0.5162, -0.5124, -0.4335, -0.3679, -0.4259, -0.4192, -0.443, 0.0, -0.1378, -0.0974, -0.1521, -0.0295, -0.0551, -0.0903, -0.2034, -0.326, -0.2177, -0.1359, -0.1625, -0.2205, -0.2424, -0.2338, -0.2386, -0.2291, -0.1179, -0.1169, -0.193, -0.2262, -0.2804, -0.3089, -0.2738, -0.2985, -0.3241, -0.3194, -0.2994, -0.3384, -0.3517, -0.3317, -0.2424, -0.2243, -0.2424, -0.2728, -0.3023, -0.2614, -0.2785, -0.3422, -0.3127, -0.3764, -0.3764, -0.2424, -0.1939, -0.1093, -0.1863, -0.2281, -0.2548, -0.2852, -0.3641, -0.4144, -0.3584, -0.269, -0.2643, -0.2605, -0.2605, -0.2681, -0.3213, -0.3356, -0.3403, -0.2795, -0.3203, -0.3298, -0.2956, -0.3346, -0.3298, -0.3764, -0.385, -0.3603, -0.4183, -0.403, -0.3954, -0.3897, -0.404, -0.403, -0.403, -0.4287, -0.4458, -0.4449, -0.4458, -0.4458, -0.423, -0.3992, -0.3413, -0.4183, -0.3888, -0.307, -0.3327, -0.3565, -0.3688, -0.4011, -0.366, -0.366, -0.3926, -0.384, -0.3897, -0.4287, -0.442, -0.4477, -0.4525, -0.4696, -0.5105, -0.5418, -0.5124, -0.5247, -0.5532, -0.5361, -0.5304, -0.5542, -0.5475, -0.5837, -0.5775, -0.5775, -0.5884, -0.5599, -0.558, -0.5247, -0.5456, -0.5143, -0.5266, -0.4857, -0.4848, -0.52, -0.5276, -0.5361, -0.5076, -0.5247]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1966270351249457269", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-11T22:39:17+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "BTC treasury companies are complete garbage. Mnav below 1 coming soon to a theater near you. $MSTR", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish MSTR and BTC treasury companies; predicts mNAV will fall below 1, calling them complete garbage.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Again, $BTC treasury companies are complete garbage. Mnav below 1 coming soon to a theater near you. $MSTR https://t.co/J8tyAhtyvE\n\n---\n\nFor all you $MSTR fans https://t.co/1E1Z4dyWJc\n\n---\n\nAnd for the real financial illiterates, you are getting what you deserve. $MSTR https://t.co/6L54y48k2t", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01635292477615935, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01635292477615935, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.016687573298524105, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.016687573298524105, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0003346485223647555, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0003346485223647555, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.011012532795070973, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011012532795070973, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01633630735254643, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01633630735254643, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005323774557475458, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005323774557475458, "ret_p1w": 0.040158090334756036, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.040158090334756036, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.027791302036884513, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.027791302036884513, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012366788297871523, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012366788297871523, "ret_p1m": -0.048183686649369895, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.048183686649369895, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.059543713263549236, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.059543713263549236, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011360026614179342, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011360026614179342, "ret_p3m": -0.4429157674704939, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4429157674704939, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4916923150016609, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.4916923150016609, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.048776547531167, "bench_c_p3m": 0.048776547531167, "ret_p6m": -0.5807687788899093, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5807687788899093, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.6184167845912313, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.6184167845912313, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.037648005701321985, "bench_c_p6m": 0.037648005701321985, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.048183686649369895, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.059543713263549236, "alpha_c_stated": 0.059543713263549236, "price_path": [0.132, 0.1134, 0.1134, 0.1154, 0.1078, 0.1375, 0.1727, 0.1659, 0.1582, 0.2196, 0.1263, 0.2137, 0.2189, 0.2189, 0.1938, 0.1976, 0.2533, 0.2724, 0.3112, 0.3608, 0.3345, 0.3755, 0.3618, 0.2769, 0.2861, 0.2865, 0.2451, 0.2519, 0.2246, 0.2183, 0.1907, 0.1919, 0.2125, 0.1062, 0.1744, 0.1328, 0.1568, 0.2129, 0.1922, 0.2076, 0.1899, 0.1764, 0.1252, 0.1052, 0.097, 0.0155, 0.039, 0.0185, 0.0805, 0.0355, 0.0601, 0.032, 0.0223, 0.009, 0.009, 0.0307, -0.0036, -0.0116, 0.0134, -0.0046, -0.0088, -0.0151, -0.0164, 0.0, -0.011, 0.011, -0.0052, 0.0533, 0.0402, 0.0135, -0.011, -0.0245, -0.0927, -0.0675, -0.0151, -0.0278, 0.021, 0.063, 0.0609, 0.0852, -0.0092, -0.0019, -0.0336, -0.0804, -0.0482, -0.0928, -0.1046, -0.1436, -0.1254, -0.1051, -0.0891, -0.1528, -0.1404, -0.1278, -0.108, -0.1412, -0.1692, -0.2319, -0.1869, -0.2015, -0.2548, -0.2306, -0.2843, -0.2701, -0.2793, -0.302, -0.3223, -0.3708, -0.3973, -0.4104, -0.3761, -0.4373, -0.4656, -0.4856, -0.4598, -0.4805, -0.4701, -0.4701, -0.4654, -0.4828, -0.4529, -0.4316, -0.4388, -0.46, -0.4458, -0.4298, -0.4429, -0.447, -0.4676, -0.511, -0.4946, -0.5161, -0.5226, -0.5027, -0.5042, -0.5237, -0.5212, -0.5212, -0.5208, -0.5312, -0.5305, -0.5415, -0.5415, -0.5258, -0.503, -0.5234, -0.5117, -0.4962, -0.5253, -0.5105, -0.4781, -0.4589, -0.4843, -0.4759, -0.4759, -0.5166, -0.5058, -0.5143, -0.5079, -0.5155, -0.5125, -0.5219, -0.568, -0.5483, -0.5787, -0.5979, -0.6105, -0.6772, -0.5929, -0.5823, -0.5987, -0.6196, -0.6289, -0.5961, -0.5961, -0.6118, -0.6223, -0.6094, -0.6046, -0.6267, -0.624, -0.5907, -0.5975, -0.6093, -0.5847, -0.5997, -0.5582, -0.5782, -0.5971, -0.5808]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1966270351249457269", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-09-11T22:39:17+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "flipped_to_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "BTC treasury companies are complete garbage. Mnav below 1 coming soon to a theater near you", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish MSTR and BTC treasury companies; predicts mNAV will fall below 1, calling them complete garbage.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Again, $BTC treasury companies are complete garbage. Mnav below 1 coming soon to a theater near you. $MSTR https://t.co/J8tyAhtyvE\n\n---\n\nFor all you $MSTR fans https://t.co/1E1Z4dyWJc\n\n---\n\nAnd for the real financial illiterates, you are getting what you deserve. $MSTR https://t.co/6L54y48k2t", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.013437908036982193, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.013437908036982193, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.013772556559346949, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.013772556559346949, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0003346485223647555, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0003346485223647555, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005142859655061782, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.005142859655061782, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0001809149024136758, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0001809149024136758, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005323774557475458, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005323774557475458, "ret_p1w": 0.014108724640200299, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.014108724640200299, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.001741936342328776, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.001741936342328776, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012366788297871523, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012366788297871523, "ret_p1m": -0.01985300607745777, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01985300607745777, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03121303269163711, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03121303269163711, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011360026614179342, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011360026614179342, "ret_p3m": -0.19752674422969552, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19752674422969552, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.24630329176086252, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.24630329176086252, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.048776547531167, "bench_c_p3m": 0.048776547531167, "ret_p6m": -0.4101121646212893, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4101121646212893, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4477601703226113, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4477601703226113, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.037648005701321985, "bench_c_p6m": 0.037648005701321985, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.01985300607745777, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03121303269163711, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03121303269163711, "price_path": [-0.0754, -0.0944, -0.092, -0.0937, -0.1056, -0.086, -0.0819, -0.0705, -0.074, -0.0729, -0.0725, -0.0849, -0.0576, -0.0507, -0.0647, -0.0624, -0.0568, -0.0362, 0.0042, 0.0174, 0.0376, 0.0196, 0.028, 0.0327, 0.0216, 0.0167, 0.0389, 0.0281, 0.0248, 0.0184, 0.0209, 0.0209, 0.0201, 0.0022, -0.0189, -0.0038, -0.0118, -0.0042, 0.0172, 0.0102, 0.0279, 0.0404, 0.0678, 0.0247, 0.0164, 0.0064, -0.0232, -0.0107, -0.0267, 0.0118, -0.0466, -0.0321, -0.0371, -0.0256, -0.0614, -0.0542, -0.0373, -0.0328, -0.0414, -0.042, -0.0297, -0.0344, -0.0134, 0.0, 0.0051, -0.0005, 0.0116, 0.0083, 0.0141, 0.0016, -0.0239, -0.0302, -0.0189, -0.0559, -0.0502, -0.0096, -0.0126, 0.0272, 0.0448, 0.0585, 0.08, 0.0515, 0.0679, 0.0537, -0.0199, -0.002, -0.0207, -0.0409, -0.0634, -0.0783, -0.0426, -0.0609, -0.0677, -0.0471, -0.0387, -0.012, -0.0221, -0.0472, -0.0624, -0.0515, -0.0776, -0.1205, -0.1006, -0.123, -0.1051, -0.0823, -0.1083, -0.1199, -0.1369, -0.1828, -0.2027, -0.1953, -0.2081, -0.25, -0.2633, -0.2358, -0.2438, -0.2163, -0.2097, -0.2129, -0.2527, -0.2091, -0.1903, -0.2023, -0.2261, -0.2153, -0.1975, -0.2033, -0.1991, -0.2185, -0.2518, -0.2395, -0.2542, -0.2601, -0.2372, -0.2339, -0.2432, -0.2415, -0.2448, -0.2442, -0.2456, -0.2344, -0.2424, -0.2318, -0.2213, -0.1872, -0.1885, -0.2095, -0.2119, -0.2164, -0.2105, -0.1748, -0.1608, -0.1728, -0.173, -0.1987, -0.2355, -0.2262, -0.2255, -0.2251, -0.2358, -0.2286, -0.2279, -0.2679, -0.2717, -0.3188, -0.3452, -0.3678, -0.4572, -0.3892, -0.3929, -0.4044, -0.42, -0.4267, -0.4039, -0.404, -0.4157, -0.4249, -0.4203, -0.4112, -0.4406, -0.4452, -0.4116, -0.416, -0.4296, -0.4046, -0.4088, -0.3705, -0.3867, -0.4101]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1912538836879417584", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-16T16:09:26+00:00", "symbol": "IWM", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "JUST SAY NO TO SMALL CAPS $IWM", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid small caps / IWM; decisive bearish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["IWM"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "JUST SAY NO TO SMALL CAPS  $IWM #RTY https://t.co/8QxTDENyBM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.009677127362018645, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009677127362018645, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.013056032619160884, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.013056032619160884, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.02273315998117953, "bench_c_m1d": 0.02273315998117953, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.00816331579561913, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.00816331579561913, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00673671642889917, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00673671642889917, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0014265993667199606, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014265993667199606, "ret_p1w": 0.028545026658445716, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.028545026658445716, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.009978040777022468, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.009978040777022468, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018566985881423248, "bench_c_p1w": 0.018566985881423248, "ret_p1m": 0.12520940070964937, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.12520940070964937, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0019358379178475715, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0019358379178475715, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1232735627918018, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1232735627918018, "ret_p3m": 0.20996437711861105, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.20996437711861105, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.01783054900476011, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.01783054900476011, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.19213382811385094, "bench_c_p3m": 0.19213382811385094, "ret_p6m": 0.33267563770524156, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.33267563770524156, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.04855593994272778, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.04855593994272778, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.2841196977625138, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2841196977625138, "ret_p1y": 0.37318472370891187, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.37318472370891187, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.11125090680439231, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.11125090680439231, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26193381690451956, "bench_c_p1y": 0.26193381690451956, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.12520940070964937, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0019358379178475715, "alpha_c_stated": -0.0019358379178475715, "price_path": [0.2162, 0.2162, 0.2395, 0.2314, 0.237, 0.2336, 0.2218, 0.2231, 0.2203, 0.2327, 0.2217, 0.2074, 0.2241, 0.2374, 0.2334, 0.2191, 0.2246, 0.2175, 0.2062, 0.2198, 0.2189, 0.2189, 0.2256, 0.2214, 0.2097, 0.1749, 0.1664, 0.162, 0.1634, 0.1457, 0.1579, 0.1262, 0.1135, 0.1245, 0.1073, 0.1109, 0.083, 0.0829, 0.0848, 0.0686, 0.0944, 0.1082, 0.0986, 0.1157, 0.1086, 0.1017, 0.1292, 0.1229, 0.1115, 0.1062, 0.0837, 0.0785, 0.0786, 0.0956, 0.0253, -0.0204, -0.0293, -0.0549, 0.0255, -0.0176, -0.0033, 0.0084, 0.0097, 0.0, 0.0082, 0.0082, -0.0121, 0.0135, 0.0285, 0.0491, 0.0495, 0.0539, 0.0601, 0.0535, 0.06, 0.0839, 0.0755, 0.0638, 0.0673, 0.0876, 0.0856, 0.1238, 0.1279, 0.1179, 0.1252, 0.1345, 0.1298, 0.1303, 0.0986, 0.0986, 0.0951, 0.0951, 0.1229, 0.111, 0.1143, 0.1087, 0.1121, 0.1301, 0.1269, 0.1274, 0.1456, 0.1535, 0.1597, 0.1549, 0.1503, 0.1293, 0.1426, 0.1306, 0.1366, 0.1366, 0.1342, 0.1481, 0.1627, 0.1491, 0.1678, 0.1682, 0.1698, 0.1819, 0.1983, 0.2094, 0.2094, 0.1912, 0.1994, 0.2125, 0.2187, 0.2019, 0.21, 0.1863, 0.1982, 0.2139, 0.2053, 0.2004, 0.2104, 0.2289, 0.2119, 0.2164, 0.215, 0.2073, 0.2011, 0.1894, 0.1651, 0.1912, 0.1973, 0.1957, 0.1918, 0.1944, 0.1941, 0.2296, 0.2535, 0.2373, 0.2313, 0.2358, 0.2263, 0.222, 0.225, 0.2731, 0.2597, 0.2701, 0.2791, 0.2806, 0.2749, 0.2749, 0.268, 0.2668, 0.2826, 0.289, 0.2916, 0.284, 0.2817, 0.3054, 0.2921, 0.2976, 0.2954, 0.2988, 0.3311, 0.321, 0.3287, 0.3257, 0.3135, 0.3009, 0.3121, 0.3136, 0.3154, 0.3183, 0.3266, 0.3365, 0.3418, 0.3274, 0.3413, 0.3327]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1963624059645677737", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-04T15:23:52+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold is an investment, not a trade. You can't own enough gold.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisively long gold and gold miners; party just starting, gold is a long-term investment not a trade.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The party has only just started. The night is young. Gold is an investment, not a trade. You can’t own enough gold. $GLD #gold $GDX https://t.co/PEw5mIlttZ", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.004438495810080045, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.004438495810080045, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.012726645828067151, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.012726645828067151, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008288150017987106, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008288150017987106, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01334594055214322, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01334594055214322, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.016242229727389534, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.016242229727389534, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002896289175246314, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002896289175246314, "ret_p1w": 0.024702339416297736, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.024702339416297736, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.011592174520330234, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.011592174520330234, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.013110164895967502, "bench_c_p1w": 0.013110164895967502, "ret_p1m": 0.09473816760763087, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.09473816760763087, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06093015911375077, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06093015911375077, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.033808008493880104, "bench_c_p1m": 0.033808008493880104, "ret_p3m": 0.18534386525595847, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.18534386525595847, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1325038191358927, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1325038191358927, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.052840046120065765, "bench_c_p3m": 0.052840046120065765, "ret_p6m": 0.48076156718864804, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.48076156718864804, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4179002559458933, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4179002559458933, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06286131124275474, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06286131124275474, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.09473816760763087, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06093015911375077, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06093015911375077, "price_path": [-0.0614, -0.0612, -0.0561, -0.0444, -0.0318, -0.0456, -0.0451, -0.0503, -0.0503, -0.0507, -0.0478, -0.0628, -0.0599, -0.0609, -0.078, -0.0669, -0.0586, -0.0534, -0.0598, -0.0598, -0.0591, -0.069, -0.0648, -0.0627, -0.0537, -0.0572, -0.0611, -0.0564, -0.0585, -0.056, -0.0415, -0.0324, -0.0444, -0.0503, -0.059, -0.0651, -0.0626, -0.0788, -0.0726, -0.0538, -0.0483, -0.0475, -0.0496, -0.0415, -0.0418, -0.0555, -0.0564, -0.0535, -0.0595, -0.059, -0.0604, -0.0656, -0.0561, -0.0594, -0.0493, -0.0516, -0.0447, -0.0428, -0.0357, -0.0264, -0.0264, -0.0034, 0.0044, 0.0, 0.0133, 0.0249, 0.0226, 0.0262, 0.0247, 0.0267, 0.0374, 0.0395, 0.0315, 0.0273, 0.0382, 0.0562, 0.0605, 0.0509, 0.0553, 0.0614, 0.0789, 0.0881, 0.0898, 0.086, 0.0947, 0.1154, 0.1211, 0.1396, 0.1186, 0.1299, 0.1573, 0.1656, 0.1858, 0.2135, 0.1907, 0.234, 0.1547, 0.1549, 0.1595, 0.1556, 0.1234, 0.1154, 0.1111, 0.133, 0.1268, 0.1288, 0.1091, 0.1219, 0.1205, 0.1274, 0.1582, 0.1628, 0.1815, 0.172, 0.1508, 0.1376, 0.1459, 0.1478, 0.1474, 0.1456, 0.1638, 0.1634, 0.1727, 0.1727, 0.1873, 0.193, 0.1853, 0.1842, 0.185, 0.1829, 0.1798, 0.1858, 0.1909, 0.2037, 0.2104, 0.2115, 0.2118, 0.2222, 0.22, 0.2214, 0.2496, 0.2662, 0.2609, 0.2609, 0.2756, 0.2201, 0.221, 0.2131, 0.2131, 0.2191, 0.2512, 0.2647, 0.2527, 0.2596, 0.2687, 0.2924, 0.2906, 0.3038, 0.2958, 0.2896, 0.2896, 0.3384, 0.3579, 0.3829, 0.4019, 0.4224, 0.4573, 0.5139, 0.518, 0.362, 0.3074, 0.3906, 0.3896, 0.3526, 0.3942, 0.4296, 0.4154, 0.4314, 0.3817, 0.4161, 0.4161, 0.3719, 0.4028, 0.4067, 0.4344, 0.4732, 0.4528, 0.4491, 0.4616, 0.4808]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1963624059645677737", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-09-04T15:23:52+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The party has only just started. The night is young. You can't own enough gold. $GLD #gold $GDX", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisively long gold and gold miners; party just starting, gold is a long-term investment not a trade.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The party has only just started. The night is young. Gold is an investment, not a trade. You can’t own enough gold. $GLD #gold $GDX https://t.co/PEw5mIlttZ", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.00975685809650817, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.00975685809650817, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.018045008114495276, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.018045008114495276, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008288150017987106, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008288150017987106, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.027412153465213862, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.027412153465213862, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.030308442640460176, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.030308442640460176, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002896289175246314, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002896289175246314, "ret_p1w": 0.08037792055622894, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08037792055622894, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06726775566026144, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06726775566026144, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.013110164895967502, "bench_c_p1w": 0.013110164895967502, "ret_p1m": 0.19374325705060347, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.19374325705060347, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.15993524855672336, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.15993524855672336, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.033808008493880104, "bench_c_p1m": 0.033808008493880104, "ret_p3m": 0.2638996845504711, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2638996845504711, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.21105963843040532, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.21105963843040532, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.052840046120065765, "bench_c_p3m": 0.052840046120065765, "ret_p6m": 0.8070515258033668, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.8070515258033668, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.7441902145606121, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.7441902145606121, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06286131124275474, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06286131124275474, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.19374325705060347, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.15993524855672336, "alpha_c_stated": 0.15993524855672336, "price_path": [-0.1927, -0.2035, -0.1956, -0.171, -0.1566, -0.1707, -0.1713, -0.1792, -0.1792, -0.1902, -0.1775, -0.1968, -0.1959, -0.1851, -0.2143, -0.1937, -0.1941, -0.1845, -0.1806, -0.1806, -0.1766, -0.2134, -0.2024, -0.1962, -0.1882, -0.1877, -0.2006, -0.1975, -0.2064, -0.2081, -0.1789, -0.1563, -0.1662, -0.1741, -0.1643, -0.1855, -0.1753, -0.1981, -0.2002, -0.1877, -0.1491, -0.1256, -0.1112, -0.1027, -0.1008, -0.1066, -0.0985, -0.1007, -0.1064, -0.0974, -0.1002, -0.1234, -0.0968, -0.0818, -0.068, -0.0667, -0.046, -0.0479, -0.0502, -0.0217, -0.0217, 0.0036, 0.0098, 0.0, 0.0274, 0.0414, 0.0353, 0.0609, 0.0804, 0.0802, 0.0915, 0.0689, 0.0633, 0.0654, 0.1206, 0.1512, 0.1496, 0.12, 0.1326, 0.1566, 0.1727, 0.1832, 0.1945, 0.1941, 0.1937, 0.2174, 0.192, 0.2258, 0.171, 0.1736, 0.2292, 0.215, 0.2617, 0.3077, 0.2193, 0.2445, 0.1273, 0.1298, 0.1428, 0.1275, 0.0827, 0.0999, 0.1007, 0.129, 0.116, 0.1042, 0.0575, 0.0945, 0.0959, 0.1236, 0.1767, 0.188, 0.2274, 0.1933, 0.1795, 0.1608, 0.1713, 0.1831, 0.1301, 0.1406, 0.2074, 0.2049, 0.263, 0.263, 0.289, 0.2826, 0.2639, 0.2554, 0.2605, 0.2549, 0.226, 0.269, 0.2904, 0.3359, 0.3266, 0.3141, 0.3138, 0.3293, 0.3268, 0.3596, 0.4068, 0.4082, 0.3993, 0.3993, 0.4241, 0.3392, 0.3547, 0.338, 0.338, 0.3373, 0.3798, 0.4373, 0.4205, 0.428, 0.4439, 0.4932, 0.5049, 0.511, 0.5149, 0.5169, 0.5169, 0.6033, 0.5801, 0.6406, 0.6695, 0.6766, 0.7049, 0.7496, 0.6844, 0.4695, 0.4693, 0.5322, 0.5397, 0.442, 0.5192, 0.605, 0.6069, 0.6531, 0.5331, 0.6214, 0.6214, 0.5639, 0.5999, 0.6261, 0.6576, 0.7205, 0.7269, 0.734, 0.7766, 0.8071]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1958496363634741257", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-21T11:48:14+00:00", "symbol": "PLTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Horrible article bereft of any serious analysis. Thus will not age well. $PLTR", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Dismisses bearish PLTR article as lacking serious analysis; implied bullish.", "resolved_tickers": ["PLTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "100x revenues! Horrible article bereft of any serious analysis. Thus will not age well. $PLTR https://t.co/9hX2ONWNMB", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0010884759695066748, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0010884759695066748, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0051164452216616585, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0051164452216616585, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004027969252154984, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004027969252154984, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.016391426158517186, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.016391426158517186, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0010345931174202683, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0010345931174202683, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015356833041096918, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015356833041096918, "ret_p1w": 0.012421581075583443, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.012421581075583443, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.008615268293727718, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.008615268293727718, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02103684936931116, "bench_c_p1w": 0.02103684936931116, "ret_p1m": 0.16781923385204234, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.16781923385204234, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.12063160756229685, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.12063160756229685, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04718762628974549, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04718762628974549, "ret_p3m": 0.07139204557667056, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07139204557667056, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.02991608997900408, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.02991608997900408, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04147595559766648, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04147595559766648, "ret_p6m": -0.15859898946910977, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.15859898946910977, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.23744437809827978, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.23744437809827978, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07884538862917001, "bench_c_p6m": 0.07884538862917001, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.16781923385204234, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.12063160756229685, "alpha_c_stated": 0.12063160756229685, "price_path": [-0.2105, -0.21, -0.2076, -0.2168, -0.1562, -0.1546, -0.1473, -0.1676, -0.2322, -0.1822, -0.1544, -0.1496, -0.1267, -0.1344, -0.1202, -0.0946, -0.1151, -0.1039, -0.1039, -0.1209, -0.1041, -0.0829, -0.085, -0.0764, -0.1629, -0.1272, -0.1633, -0.1541, -0.1397, -0.1397, -0.1092, -0.1055, -0.0836, -0.0876, -0.0902, -0.045, -0.0487, -0.0337, -0.014, -0.017, -0.0281, -0.0455, -0.0099, -0.0085, 0.0168, 0.0109, 0.0004, 0.0156, 0.0139, -0.0122, 0.0287, 0.1094, 0.1496, 0.1666, 0.1971, 0.1697, 0.1971, 0.1805, 0.159, 0.1344, 0.1143, 0.0101, -0.0011, 0.0, 0.0164, 0.0063, 0.03, 0.0035, 0.0124, 0.0034, 0.0034, 0.0058, -0.0082, -0.0003, -0.0197, -0.0005, 0.0396, 0.0676, 0.0524, 0.0976, 0.0962, 0.0902, 0.0778, 0.1331, 0.1678, 0.1482, 0.1688, 0.1497, 0.1469, 0.137, 0.1452, 0.168, 0.1842, 0.1977, 0.1081, 0.1495, 0.1664, 0.1753, 0.1875, 0.1233, 0.1347, 0.1509, 0.1501, 0.1405, 0.1407, 0.1627, 0.1622, 0.1236, 0.1556, 0.1822, 0.2113, 0.214, 0.273, 0.2457, 0.2836, 0.3265, 0.2213, 0.2031, 0.1208, 0.1393, 0.2397, 0.2227, 0.1792, 0.1022, 0.1142, 0.0965, 0.0714, 0.0592, -0.0028, -0.0085, 0.0389, 0.0472, 0.0614, 0.0614, 0.0786, 0.0724, 0.0929, 0.1274, 0.1392, 0.1638, 0.1621, 0.1643, 0.2032, 0.2008, 0.1754, 0.1733, 0.2021, 0.1352, 0.1889, 0.2382, 0.242, 0.243, 0.2432, 0.2432, 0.2083, 0.1793, 0.1579, 0.1381, 0.1381, 0.0748, 0.1144, 0.1507, 0.1633, 0.1324, 0.1364, 0.1487, 0.1459, 0.1423, 0.1338, 0.0946, 0.0946, 0.0791, 0.0586, 0.0622, 0.0859, 0.0723, 0.061, 0.0075, -0.0277, -0.0614, -0.0539, 0.0109, -0.1065, -0.1676, -0.1299, -0.085, -0.1067, -0.1313, -0.1732, -0.1586]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1935467669366395316", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-06-18T22:40:26+00:00", "symbol": "oil", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "this breakout in oil—it was coming", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish oil, energy, agriculture, and soft commodities on breakout + sticky inflation; bearish bonds; relays BTC long from Dilley.", "resolved_tickers": ["USO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "USO is the standard crude oil ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They’re not.\nAt the same time, everyone’s calling for a bond rally. But not Michael Kramer, not with oil breaking out and inflation still sticky. KRAMER TOLD YOU SO. \nThe last inflation print gave the crowd a reason to celebrate. Headline inflation moved lower. But food inflation? Still rising.
Commodities are alive.\nAnd this breakout in oil—it was coming,\nJUST LIKE VAN DRUNKENMILLER predicted. 
The timing is always the hard part, because the market doesn’t care what I want (JUST BUY $BTC LIKE DILLEY TOLD YOU COUNTLESS TIMES)
It never does.\nIt’s like the ocean. A surfer doesn’t control the wave. They read it, respect it, and ride it. Try to fight it, and you drown.\nMy grandmother told me this growing up—especially during hard times:
\"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, (like the Furus larping on X), the courage to change the things I can (block $TSLA fan boys) and the wisdom to know the difference (between value and price).\nI can’t change the market’s direction.
But I can choose how I respond to it.
I can enter the next trade with clarity—not fear (JUST FOLLOW RUSTY)
I know that forcing trades only leads to losses.\nRight now, the regime is clear. The market is moving higher. I’m not standing in its way. 
And it looks like commodities are finally coming with it. @MichaelMOTTCM @Drunkenmil73821 @rusty__tillery @moneyprinter", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.010226252110543621, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.010226252110543621, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.012580358520514645, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012580358520514645, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "bench_c_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.08072664656821826, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.08072664656821826, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.09060402846544113, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.09060402846544113, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "ret_p1w": -0.1183831044530348, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.1183831044530348, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.15309739932028332, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.15309739932028332, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "ret_p1m": -0.09059198941137003, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.09059198941137003, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.148628656358065, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.148628656358065, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "ret_p3m": -0.0980510257046886, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0980510257046886, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.20725882164945741, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.20725882164945741, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "ret_p6m": -0.18322910074205767, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.18322910074205767, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.33187498072873667, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.33187498072873667, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "bench_c_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "ret_p1y": 0.5796438728721889, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.5796438728721889, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.3288836688800938, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.3288836688800938, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.09059198941137003, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.148628656358065, "alpha_c_stated": -0.148628656358065, "price_path": [-0.0999, -0.0926, -0.0919, -0.1005, -0.0697, -0.0727, -0.0647, -0.1308, -0.1829, -0.2062, -0.238, -0.187, -0.2141, -0.2004, -0.198, -0.2002, -0.1849, -0.1641, -0.1641, -0.1744, -0.1654, -0.1813, -0.1764, -0.1695, -0.1848, -0.2078, -0.2353, -0.2238, -0.2299, -0.2496, -0.2228, -0.2359, -0.2108, -0.1986, -0.1867, -0.1628, -0.1731, -0.1868, -0.1807, -0.1758, -0.174, -0.1868, -0.1923, -0.182, -0.182, -0.1906, -0.1832, -0.1917, -0.1921, -0.1633, -0.1592, -0.1658, -0.1587, -0.1412, -0.1332, -0.1386, -0.0999, -0.0971, -0.0349, -0.0545, -0.0099, -0.0102, -0.0102, 0.0, -0.0807, -0.1218, -0.118, -0.1147, -0.1184, -0.1204, -0.1106, -0.0906, -0.0954, -0.0954, -0.0799, -0.0741, -0.0745, -0.093, -0.0701, -0.0902, -0.0946, -0.0954, -0.0837, -0.0865, -0.0906, -0.0935, -0.0943, -0.0846, -0.0995, -0.0716, -0.0399, -0.025, -0.0425, -0.0681, -0.0843, -0.0974, -0.1122, -0.1167, -0.1181, -0.1121, -0.1224, -0.1282, -0.1128, -0.1242, -0.1197, -0.1302, -0.1155, -0.1082, -0.102, -0.0887, -0.1091, -0.1015, -0.0948, -0.0996, -0.0996, -0.0765, -0.0997, -0.1076, -0.1262, -0.1213, -0.1171, -0.1012, -0.1218, -0.118, -0.107, -0.0896, -0.0981, -0.1014, -0.1155, -0.1163, -0.0971, -0.081, -0.0737, -0.0734, -0.1026, -0.1127, -0.1201, -0.1393, -0.1373, -0.1233, -0.1193, -0.1154, -0.1276, -0.1652, -0.1545, -0.1699, -0.17, -0.1842, -0.1821, -0.184, -0.1787, -0.1503, -0.1183, -0.1196, -0.1203, -0.1411, -0.1362, -0.1373, -0.127, -0.1249, -0.1346, -0.1455, -0.1473, -0.1427, -0.1376, -0.1251, -0.1604, -0.1596, -0.1412, -0.1422, -0.1278, -0.1473, -0.156, -0.1663, -0.1528, -0.1669, -0.1574, -0.1574, -0.145, -0.1451, -0.1554, -0.1499, -0.1411, -0.1347, -0.1519, -0.1595, -0.1513, -0.1669, -0.1722, -0.1832]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1935467669366395316", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-06-18T22:40:26+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They're not.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish oil, energy, agriculture, and soft commodities on breakout + sticky inflation; bearish bonds; relays BTC long from Dilley.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE default energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They’re not.\nAt the same time, everyone’s calling for a bond rally. But not Michael Kramer, not with oil breaking out and inflation still sticky. KRAMER TOLD YOU SO. \nThe last inflation print gave the crowd a reason to celebrate. Headline inflation moved lower. But food inflation? Still rising.
Commodities are alive.\nAnd this breakout in oil—it was coming,\nJUST LIKE VAN DRUNKENMILLER predicted. 
The timing is always the hard part, because the market doesn’t care what I want (JUST BUY $BTC LIKE DILLEY TOLD YOU COUNTLESS TIMES)
It never does.\nIt’s like the ocean. A surfer doesn’t control the wave. They read it, respect it, and ride it. Try to fight it, and you drown.\nMy grandmother told me this growing up—especially during hard times:
\"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, (like the Furus larping on X), the courage to change the things I can (block $TSLA fan boys) and the wisdom to know the difference (between value and price).\nI can’t change the market’s direction.
But I can choose how I respond to it.
I can enter the next trade with clarity—not fear (JUST FOLLOW RUSTY)
I know that forcing trades only leads to losses.\nRight now, the regime is clear. The market is moving higher. I’m not standing in its way. 
And it looks like commodities are finally coming with it. @MichaelMOTTCM @Drunkenmil73821 @rusty__tillery @moneyprinter", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.010114452190662426, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.010114452190662426, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01246855860063345, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01246855860063345, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "bench_c_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.025288314253511524, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.025288314253511524, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.035165696150734393, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.035165696150734393, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "ret_p1w": -0.033559123975686056, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.033559123975686056, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.06827341884293459, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06827341884293459, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "ret_p1m": -0.03616503826734685, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03616503826734685, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.09420170521404181, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.09420170521404181, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "ret_p3m": 0.019578049744654047, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.019578049744654047, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.08962974620011477, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08962974620011477, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "ret_p6m": 0.032735082464316445, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.032735082464316445, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.11591079752236255, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.11591079752236255, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "bench_c_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "ret_p1y": 0.3313662109109514, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.3313662109109514, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.08060600691885633, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.08060600691885633, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03616503826734685, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.09420170521404181, "alpha_c_stated": -0.09420170521404181, "price_path": [0.0478, 0.0539, 0.0437, 0.0388, 0.0502, 0.0564, 0.0579, -0.0252, -0.1149, -0.1206, -0.1409, -0.0744, -0.1349, -0.1134, -0.1102, -0.1116, -0.1043, -0.0841, -0.0841, -0.108, -0.0853, -0.087, -0.0724, -0.0741, -0.0675, -0.0702, -0.0953, -0.0919, -0.0787, -0.0953, -0.0951, -0.0947, -0.0828, -0.0736, -0.0494, -0.0361, -0.0419, -0.0379, -0.0393, -0.0518, -0.0606, -0.0779, -0.0815, -0.0786, -0.0786, -0.0706, -0.0824, -0.0755, -0.0837, -0.0717, -0.0607, -0.079, -0.0799, -0.0626, -0.0608, -0.0441, -0.0302, -0.0269, -0.0099, -0.0128, -0.0036, -0.0101, -0.0101, 0.0, -0.0253, -0.038, -0.0422, -0.0285, -0.0336, -0.0391, -0.0317, -0.0151, -0.014, -0.014, -0.0235, 0.0028, -0.0023, 0.0053, 0.0098, -0.0013, -0.0157, -0.0242, -0.0182, -0.0261, -0.0362, -0.0316, -0.0165, -0.0094, -0.0132, -0.0019, 0.0078, -0.0066, -0.0119, -0.0303, -0.0324, -0.0312, -0.0401, -0.0439, -0.0378, -0.0455, -0.0408, -0.0297, -0.0306, -0.0306, -0.0364, -0.0361, -0.028, -0.0213, -0.0014, 0.0012, -0.0004, 0.0109, 0.0186, 0.0241, 0.0241, 0.0256, 0.0026, 0.0093, -0.0102, -0.0125, -0.0077, 0.0096, 0.0098, 0.0038, 0.0004, 0.0172, 0.0196, 0.0164, 0.0029, 0.0018, 0.019, 0.0323, 0.0415, 0.0511, 0.0318, 0.0209, 0.0209, 0.0106, 0.0159, 0.021, 0.0226, 0.0166, 0.0028, -0.0262, -0.013, -0.0131, -0.0137, -0.0255, -0.0175, -0.0071, -0.0094, 0.0033, 0.0166, 0.0063, 0.0087, -0.0018, 0.0057, -0.0003, 0.007, 0.0071, -0.0037, -0.0011, 0.0086, 0.0231, 0.0324, 0.0459, 0.0312, 0.0339, 0.0515, 0.0323, 0.0405, 0.027, 0.0154, 0.0218, 0.0189, 0.0125, 0.0202, 0.0202, 0.0335, 0.0435, 0.03, 0.0493, 0.0538, 0.0494, 0.038, 0.0444, 0.0554, 0.0503, 0.04, 0.0327]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1935467669366395316", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2025-06-18T22:40:26+00:00", "symbol": "agriculture", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They're not.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish oil, energy, agriculture, and soft commodities on breakout + sticky inflation; bearish bonds; relays BTC long from Dilley.", "resolved_tickers": ["DBA"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "DBA is the primary agriculture commodity ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They’re not.\nAt the same time, everyone’s calling for a bond rally. But not Michael Kramer, not with oil breaking out and inflation still sticky. KRAMER TOLD YOU SO. \nThe last inflation print gave the crowd a reason to celebrate. Headline inflation moved lower. But food inflation? Still rising.
Commodities are alive.\nAnd this breakout in oil—it was coming,\nJUST LIKE VAN DRUNKENMILLER predicted. 
The timing is always the hard part, because the market doesn’t care what I want (JUST BUY $BTC LIKE DILLEY TOLD YOU COUNTLESS TIMES)
It never does.\nIt’s like the ocean. A surfer doesn’t control the wave. They read it, respect it, and ride it. Try to fight it, and you drown.\nMy grandmother told me this growing up—especially during hard times:
\"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, (like the Furus larping on X), the courage to change the things I can (block $TSLA fan boys) and the wisdom to know the difference (between value and price).\nI can’t change the market’s direction.
But I can choose how I respond to it.
I can enter the next trade with clarity—not fear (JUST FOLLOW RUSTY)
I know that forcing trades only leads to losses.\nRight now, the regime is clear. The market is moving higher. I’m not standing in its way. 
And it looks like commodities are finally coming with it. @MichaelMOTTCM @Drunkenmil73821 @rusty__tillery @moneyprinter", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.014009840874264823, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.014009840874264823, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.011655734464293799, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.011655734464293799, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "bench_c_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0026504619003397956, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0026504619003397956, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.007226919996883074, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007226919996883074, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "ret_p1w": -0.0030291527613193203, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0030291527613193203, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03774344762856785, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.03774344762856785, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "ret_p1m": -0.01931091432555132, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.01931091432555132, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.07734758127224628, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07734758127224628, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "ret_p3m": 0.029155604680861424, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.029155604680861424, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.08005219126390739, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08005219126390739, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "ret_p6m": -0.0026505367256431933, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.0026505367256431933, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.1512964167123222, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.1512964167123222, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "bench_c_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "ret_p1y": 0.030964656043419136, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.030964656043419136, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.21979554794867595, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.21979554794867595, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.01931091432555132, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.07734758127224628, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07734758127224628, "price_path": [0.0136, 0.0061, 0.0008, 0.0023, -0.0027, 0.0197, 0.0292, 0.0216, -0.0102, -0.0356, -0.0432, -0.0148, -0.0246, -0.0038, -0.0049, -0.0102, 0.0042, 0.0091, 0.0091, 0.0083, 0.0216, 0.0212, 0.0318, 0.0405, 0.0333, 0.0216, 0.0151, 0.008, 0.017, 0.0114, 0.0178, 0.0174, 0.0189, 0.0231, 0.022, 0.0367, 0.031, 0.0375, 0.0352, 0.0443, 0.047, 0.0481, 0.0375, 0.0276, 0.0276, 0.0227, 0.0117, 0.0061, 0.011, 0.0083, 0.011, 0.0186, 0.0322, 0.0405, 0.0371, 0.025, 0.0242, 0.0227, 0.0208, 0.0288, 0.0182, 0.014, 0.014, 0.0, 0.0027, -0.0045, -0.0125, -0.0102, -0.003, -0.0098, -0.0288, -0.0204, -0.0197, -0.0197, -0.0265, -0.0254, -0.0182, -0.0242, -0.0242, -0.0201, -0.0299, -0.0201, -0.0239, -0.0144, -0.0193, -0.0167, -0.008, -0.008, -0.0125, -0.0068, -0.0151, -0.017, -0.0193, -0.028, -0.0257, -0.0186, -0.0159, -0.0061, -0.0076, 0.0083, 0.0151, 0.0186, 0.0072, 0.0246, 0.0231, 0.0273, 0.0299, 0.0329, 0.0447, 0.0443, 0.0382, 0.0481, 0.042, 0.0515, 0.0515, 0.0394, 0.0345, 0.0314, 0.0284, 0.0329, 0.0261, 0.0303, 0.0379, 0.0413, 0.0568, 0.0511, 0.0292, 0.0254, 0.0212, 0.0167, 0.0151, 0.0186, 0.0163, 0.0216, 0.0189, 0.0133, 0.0151, 0.0102, 0.0098, 0.0125, 0.0072, 0.0087, 0.003, -0.0034, 0.0, 0.0068, 0.0064, 0.0121, 0.0049, 0.0136, 0.0159, 0.0208, 0.0193, 0.0068, -0.0045, -0.0095, -0.0034, -0.0057, -0.0015, 0.0193, 0.0091, 0.0053, -0.0114, -0.008, 0.0076, 0.0049, -0.0004, -0.0064, -0.0121, 0.0008, -0.0004, -0.0121, -0.0178, -0.0201, -0.0276, -0.0212, -0.0106, -0.0106, 0.0004, -0.0045, 0.0, -0.0011, 0.0019, 0.0042, -0.0004, -0.0004, 0.003, 0.0087, 0.0042, -0.0027]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1935467669366395316", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2025-06-18T22:40:26+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "flipped_to_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "JUST BUY $BTC LIKE DILLEY TOLD YOU COUNTLESS TIMES", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish oil, energy, agriculture, and soft commodities on breakout + sticky inflation; bearish bonds; relays BTC long from Dilley.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Everyone thinks energy, agriculture, and soft commodities are dead. They’re not.\nAt the same time, everyone’s calling for a bond rally. But not Michael Kramer, not with oil breaking out and inflation still sticky. KRAMER TOLD YOU SO. \nThe last inflation print gave the crowd a reason to celebrate. Headline inflation moved lower. But food inflation? Still rising.
Commodities are alive.\nAnd this breakout in oil—it was coming,\nJUST LIKE VAN DRUNKENMILLER predicted. 
The timing is always the hard part, because the market doesn’t care what I want (JUST BUY $BTC LIKE DILLEY TOLD YOU COUNTLESS TIMES)
It never does.\nIt’s like the ocean. A surfer doesn’t control the wave. They read it, respect it, and ride it. Try to fight it, and you drown.\nMy grandmother told me this growing up—especially during hard times:
\"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, (like the Furus larping on X), the courage to change the things I can (block $TSLA fan boys) and the wisdom to know the difference (between value and price).\nI can’t change the market’s direction.
But I can choose how I respond to it.
I can enter the next trade with clarity—not fear (JUST FOLLOW RUSTY)
I know that forcing trades only leads to losses.\nRight now, the regime is clear. The market is moving higher. I’m not standing in its way. 
And it looks like commodities are finally coming with it. @MichaelMOTTCM @Drunkenmil73821 @rusty__tillery @moneyprinter", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.002690713028896896, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.002690713028896896, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.00504481943886792, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.00504481943886792, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "bench_c_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0018977187896134229, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0018977187896134229, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.011775100686836293, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.011775100686836293, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "ret_p1w": 0.02362558217590882, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02362558217590882, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.011088712691339708, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.011088712691339708, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "ret_p1m": 0.13735753701322584, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.13735753701322584, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07932087006653088, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07932087006653088, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "ret_p3m": 0.10069805243415564, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.10069805243415564, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.008509743510613177, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.008509743510613177, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "ret_p6m": -0.11795956906282623, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.11795956906282623, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.2666054490495052, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.2666054490495052, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "bench_c_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "ret_p1y": -0.419138684308889, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.419138684308889, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.6698988883009841, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.6698988883009841, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.13735753701322584, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07932087006653088, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07932087006653088, "price_path": [-0.1987, -0.1658, -0.166, -0.1715, -0.1688, -0.1957, -0.2129, -0.188, -0.2135, -0.2077, -0.2006, -0.2445, -0.2728, -0.2127, -0.2408, -0.2048, -0.1939, -0.2023, -0.1988, -0.1906, -0.1948, -0.1656, -0.1091, -0.1066, -0.1043, -0.0969, -0.0944, -0.1011, -0.1018, -0.08, -0.076, -0.0966, -0.077, -0.0749, -0.0157, -0.0182, -0.0197, -0.0068, -0.0128, -0.0109, -0.0133, 0.0069, 0.0182, 0.0457, 0.0647, 0.0229, 0.0434, 0.0392, 0.0278, 0.0072, -0.0084, 0.0095, 0.0052, -0.0014, -0.0315, -0.0047, 0.0516, 0.0512, 0.0363, 0.01, 0.0115, 0.0182, -0.0027, 0.0, -0.0019, -0.015, 0.0066, 0.0111, 0.0236, 0.0198, 0.021, 0.0215, 0.0078, 0.0379, 0.0454, 0.03, 0.0326, 0.0388, 0.0614, 0.1059, 0.1205, 0.1427, 0.1229, 0.1321, 0.1374, 0.1251, 0.1197, 0.1441, 0.1323, 0.1286, 0.1216, 0.1243, 0.1243, 0.1235, 0.1037, 0.0804, 0.0971, 0.0883, 0.0967, 0.1203, 0.1126, 0.132, 0.1458, 0.176, 0.1285, 0.1193, 0.1084, 0.0758, 0.0895, 0.0718, 0.1143, 0.05, 0.066, 0.0604, 0.073, 0.0336, 0.0416, 0.0602, 0.0652, 0.0557, 0.055, 0.0685, 0.0634, 0.0865, 0.1013, 0.107, 0.1007, 0.114, 0.1105, 0.1168, 0.103, 0.075, 0.068, 0.0805, 0.0397, 0.046, 0.0907, 0.0875, 0.1312, 0.1506, 0.1657, 0.1894, 0.158, 0.1761, 0.1604, 0.0794, 0.099, 0.0785, 0.0563, 0.0315, 0.0151, 0.0544, 0.0343, 0.0267, 0.0494, 0.0586, 0.0881, 0.077, 0.0493, 0.0326, 0.0446, 0.0159, -0.0314, -0.0095, -0.0342, -0.0144, 0.0106, -0.018, -0.0307, -0.0494, -0.1, -0.1219, -0.1138, -0.1279, -0.174, -0.1887, -0.1584, -0.1672, -0.137, -0.1296, -0.1331, -0.177, -0.129, -0.1083, -0.1215, -0.1477, -0.1358, -0.1162, -0.1226, -0.118]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1952418954892493053", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-04T17:18:47+00:00", "symbol": "FRPT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Revenue growth is collapsing while the stock remains absurdly expensive and looks destined to remain a real DOG!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish FRPT: revenue growth collapsing, stock absurdly expensive and destined to underperform.", "resolved_tickers": ["FRPT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLP", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Packaged Foods'", "bench_c_industry": "Packaged Foods", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$FRPT was highlighted at our stock ideas summit last week. Revenue growth is collapsing while the stock remains absurdly expensive and looks destined to remain a real DOG! \nYou can hear the $FRPT pitch and over 20 other ideas by purchasing the conference replay.\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/4bCO5OODOM\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/DX9GHhjkwo", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.059151300414477026, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.059151300414477026, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.04417911001739894, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.054309645635034265, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.014972190397078089, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004841654779442761, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.036719528122097334, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.036719528122097334, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.031649504005384466, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.035726335719615254, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005070024116712868, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0009931924024820793, "ret_p1w": -0.10887268416147888, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.10887268416147888, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.11639837746564452, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.13196394513911192, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.007525693304165637, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023091260977633032, "ret_p1m": -0.2187455068707611, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2187455068707611, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.23316322601596617, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.21998702170965712, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.014417719145205066, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0012415148388960073, "ret_p3m": -0.27703957681767144, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.27703957681767144, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.35712083017495533, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.23327729819308374, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08008125335728389, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0437622786245877, "ret_p6m": 0.02871841973967193, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.02871841973967193, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.0795076027274133, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.01910783904871316, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10822602246708524, "bench_c_p6m": 0.04782625878838509, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2187455068707611, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.23316322601596617, "alpha_c_stated": 0.21998702170965712, "price_path": [0.1589, 0.1722, 0.1497, 0.1376, 0.1046, 0.1256, 0.1899, 0.2523, 0.2505, 0.2808, 0.2209, 0.2129, 0.2073, 0.2073, 0.1862, 0.139, 0.1487, 0.1453, 0.1582, 0.1617, 0.1677, 0.1572, 0.1489, 0.1064, 0.1272, 0.0983, 0.1116, 0.0612, 0.0351, 0.0276, 0.0247, 0.0247, 0.0592, 0.023, 0.0316, -0.0301, -0.0247, -0.0229, -0.029, 0.0184, 0.0309, 0.0257, 0.0257, -0.0293, 0.0054, 0.0017, 0.0109, -0.0229, 0.0271, -0.0183, -0.0086, 0.028, 0.0119, -0.0267, 0.0464, 0.0646, 0.0251, 0.011, 0.0011, 0.0134, 0.0153, -0.0239, -0.0592, 0.0, -0.0367, -0.09, -0.0859, -0.1036, -0.1089, -0.1042, -0.0824, -0.0957, -0.125, -0.1139, -0.1099, -0.1299, -0.1363, -0.1053, -0.1957, -0.1702, -0.179, -0.1876, -0.2025, -0.2025, -0.2187, -0.2409, -0.2393, -0.2103, -0.2039, -0.1852, -0.2369, -0.2399, -0.2167, -0.2503, -0.228, -0.2367, -0.2553, -0.2656, -0.271, -0.2963, -0.2942, -0.2963, -0.2902, -0.2512, -0.2126, -0.227, -0.2385, -0.2356, -0.239, -0.2446, -0.2926, -0.2855, -0.3092, -0.3085, -0.263, -0.2635, -0.2335, -0.2672, -0.261, -0.2206, -0.1783, -0.2257, -0.2267, -0.2025, -0.231, -0.2482, -0.277, -0.2969, -0.1963, -0.1995, -0.1799, -0.1999, -0.2107, -0.2092, -0.1999, -0.2055, -0.2365, -0.2365, -0.2465, -0.2449, -0.2396, -0.2456, -0.2285, -0.2339, -0.2029, -0.1962, -0.1962, -0.1833, -0.1813, -0.169, -0.1116, -0.1143, -0.1134, -0.0974, -0.0763, -0.0879, -0.1014, -0.0939, -0.0919, -0.086, -0.073, -0.0623, -0.1054, -0.086, -0.0783, -0.0853, -0.0853, -0.0832, -0.0993, -0.1409, -0.1294, -0.1294, -0.1406, -0.1407, -0.11, -0.1132, -0.1152, -0.0847, -0.0834, -0.0892, -0.097, -0.0962, -0.082, -0.082, -0.0331, -0.0019, 0.0373, 0.0223, 0.0303, 0.0287]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1911964638863843452", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-15T02:07:47+00:00", "symbol": "TLT", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Long and wrong (lately) $TLT", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Still holding a long TLT position despite recent losses.", "resolved_tickers": ["TLT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Long and wrong (lately) $TLT https://t.co/goypW5llwS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0035297761952413076, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0035297761952413076, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.006338665677678268, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.006338665677678268, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0028088894824369603, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0028088894824369603, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005579722180660829, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.005579722180660829, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027807572875946707, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.027807572875946707, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.022227850695285878, "bench_c_p1d": -0.022227850695285878, "ret_p1w": -0.015258238195835272, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.015258238195835272, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0040120929521794135, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0040120929521794135, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019270331148014685, "bench_c_p1w": -0.019270331148014685, "ret_p1m": -0.0248924627125523, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0248924627125523, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.11785958967958365, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.11785958967958365, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09296712696703135, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09296712696703135, "ret_p3m": -0.012199470972825255, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.012199470972825255, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1756146007305559, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1756146007305559, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.16341512975773065, "bench_c_p3m": 0.16341512975773065, "ret_p6m": 0.03909411074064262, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.03909411074064262, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.22013030741755335, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.22013030741755335, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.25922441815819597, "bench_c_p6m": 0.25922441815819597, "ret_p1y": 0.03311585658522609, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.03311585658522609, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.20076788384980748, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.20076788384980748, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.23388374043503357, "bench_c_p1y": 0.23388374043503357, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0248924627125523, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.11785958967958365, "alpha_c_stated": -0.11785958967958365, "price_path": [-0.019, -0.0173, -0.0173, -0.0085, -0.0137, -0.0214, -0.017, -0.0054, -0.0061, -0.0081, -0.0044, -0.0109, -0.0029, 0.0002, 0.0167, 0.0163, 0.0097, 0.0066, 0.0002, -0.0134, 0.003, 0.0083, 0.0083, -0.0035, -0.0023, 0.0014, 0.0135, 0.0165, 0.034, 0.0401, 0.0328, 0.0454, 0.0503, 0.0374, 0.0291, 0.0257, 0.0224, 0.0331, 0.0257, 0.0196, 0.0285, 0.0231, 0.0282, 0.0292, 0.0345, 0.0352, 0.0291, 0.0185, 0.0184, 0.0117, 0.0088, 0.0227, 0.0328, 0.0418, 0.0411, 0.0459, 0.0573, 0.0254, 0.006, 0.012, -0.0159, -0.0106, -0.0035, 0.0, 0.0056, -0.0033, -0.0033, -0.0207, -0.0153, -0.0057, 0.0048, 0.0122, 0.0186, 0.0271, 0.0188, 0.0136, 0.0027, -0.0029, 0.0004, 0.0046, -0.0066, -0.0051, -0.0144, -0.0184, -0.0249, -0.0163, -0.0137, -0.0165, -0.0236, -0.0403, -0.0353, -0.0337, -0.0337, -0.0202, -0.0244, -0.0154, -0.0139, -0.0231, -0.0248, -0.009, -0.0083, -0.0209, -0.0199, -0.0148, -0.0119, -0.0, -0.0097, -0.0197, -0.0077, -0.006, -0.006, -0.0078, -0.0046, 0.0026, 0.0039, 0.0089, 0.0025, 0.0123, 0.0149, 0.0084, 0.0014, 0.0014, -0.0082, -0.0094, 0.0009, 0.0016, -0.0122, -0.0143, -0.0212, -0.0198, -0.02, -0.0185, -0.0098, -0.0038, -0.0093, -0.011, -0.0048, -0.0113, 0.0054, 0.0002, 0.0008, 0.015, 0.0178, 0.0209, 0.015, 0.0133, 0.0089, 0.0101, 0.005, 0.0133, 0.0058, -0.0014, -0.0043, 0.0015, 0.0037, -0.0013, 0.0061, 0.0033, 0.0027, 0.0015, 0.0081, 0.0009, 0.0009, -0.0065, 0.0044, 0.0121, 0.0275, 0.0412, 0.0353, 0.0412, 0.0481, 0.0436, 0.046, 0.0483, 0.0456, 0.0348, 0.0328, 0.0291, 0.0363, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0314, 0.0399, 0.0369, 0.0396, 0.0426, 0.0406, 0.0323, 0.0383, 0.0391]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1925196632250892341", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-05-21T14:27:00+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "THIS IS A COMPLETE UNMITIGATED DISASTER. $TSLA", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA; calls Cybertruck's ~37-38% one-year depreciation a complete disaster for the brand.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Tesla accepting Cybertruck trade-ins, showing owners a glimpse of depreciation rate.    \n\n2 owners shared their trade-in estimates, showing a roughly 37% to 38% depreciation after a year.\n\nis this BAD? $TSLA @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @TommyThornton @PauloMacro @agnostoxxx\n\n---\n\nTHIS IS A COMPLETE UNMITIGATED DISASTER.   $TSLA\n\nhttps://t.co/ORj5t5cdO9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02749391052919381, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02749391052919381, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010354319789553035, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.006799390707145081, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.017139590739640775, "bench_c_m1d": 0.02069451982204873, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.019185982671137136, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.019185982671137136, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.018791274584155637, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.014886461914948024, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00039470808698149895, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0042995207561891124, "ret_p1w": 0.06658298698347109, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06658298698347109, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.058227748430908166, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.051321916256310995, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008355238552562927, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015261070727160098, "ret_p1m": -0.037565021539781585, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.037565021539781585, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06257965982597757, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.031800728065089934, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02501463828619599, "bench_c_p1m": -0.005764293474691651, "ret_p3m": 0.0016137964042846065, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0016137964042846065, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10534466187038771, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08720707102249903, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10695845827467232, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08882086742678363, "ret_p6m": 0.20133284352476855, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.20133284352476855, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.04171393381108435, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.1009154582933296, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1596189097136842, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10041738523143895, "ret_p1y": 0.2801088170284112, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.2801088170284112, "alpha_spy_p1y": -8.312755291939311e-05, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.13529392169216647, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2800256894754918, "bench_c_p1y": 0.1448148953362447, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.037565021539781585, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06257965982597757, "alpha_c_stated": 0.031800728065089934, "price_path": [0.0095, -0.0122, -0.0951, -0.131, -0.1574, -0.1244, -0.1493, -0.187, -0.1659, -0.2127, -0.215, -0.3361, -0.3109, -0.2586, -0.2807, -0.2529, -0.2887, -0.3267, -0.2951, -0.2939, -0.2567, -0.168, -0.1389, -0.187, -0.1838, -0.2124, -0.2255, -0.1977, -0.155, -0.2012, -0.2845, -0.3028, -0.337, -0.1865, -0.2457, -0.246, -0.2459, -0.2406, -0.2781, -0.2787, -0.2787, -0.3201, -0.2888, -0.2507, -0.2245, -0.1484, -0.1457, -0.1273, -0.1568, -0.1617, -0.1417, -0.1625, -0.1771, -0.1745, -0.1488, -0.1087, -0.0485, -0.0016, 0.039, 0.0245, 0.0459, 0.0223, 0.0275, 0.0, 0.0192, 0.0141, 0.0141, 0.0845, 0.0666, 0.0712, 0.0354, 0.0241, 0.0288, -0.0077, -0.1492, -0.118, -0.0778, -0.0255, -0.0245, -0.0464, -0.0278, -0.0164, -0.0546, -0.0376, -0.0376, -0.0372, 0.042, 0.0175, -0.0211, -0.0264, -0.0328, -0.0507, -0.1013, -0.0567, -0.0576, -0.0576, -0.1216, -0.11, -0.1158, -0.074, -0.0631, -0.053, -0.0712, -0.0387, -0.0455, -0.0149, -0.0183, -0.0075, -0.0062, -0.0876, -0.0555, -0.027, -0.0401, -0.0466, -0.0787, -0.0956, -0.0758, -0.0774, -0.044, -0.0369, -0.0149, 0.0132, 0.0186, 0.0142, 0.0029, -0.0121, 0.0016, -0.0159, -0.032, -0.0434, 0.0161, 0.0358, 0.051, 0.0448, 0.0339, -0.0022, -0.0022, -0.0157, -0.0016, 0.0117, 0.0485, 0.0352, 0.0369, 0.0394, 0.1022, 0.1833, 0.2254, 0.26, 0.2727, 0.2457, 0.2733, 0.2976, 0.2726, 0.3233, 0.2653, 0.3161, 0.3245, 0.329, 0.3731, 0.303, 0.2845, 0.3545, 0.2943, 0.311, 0.3016, 0.2357, 0.3027, 0.2828, 0.3004, 0.2813, 0.3129, 0.3371, 0.3227, 0.3118, 0.3418, 0.2962, 0.352, 0.3763, 0.3792, 0.3152, 0.3644, 0.3997, 0.3277, 0.3809, 0.3326, 0.2836, 0.3306, 0.3138, 0.2868, 0.2013]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1958544557697532380", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-21T14:59:45+00:00", "symbol": "HOV", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Margins collapsing, cancellations up, backlog imploding. SELL. $HOV", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish HOV: margins collapsing, cancellations rising, backlog imploding — explicit sell instruction contradicting parent's buy-the-dip thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["HOV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Residential Construction", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@to_trackLs WRONG. Margins collapsing, cancellations up, backlog imploding. SELL. $HOV", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "$HOV -7.5% at the open.\nI’ve bought the dip.\n\nThe huge miss was largely a one-off anomaly driven by non-recurring charges - rather than a sign of systematic weakeness.\n\nIt’s a speedbump, not a derailing.\n\nWouldn’t be surprised to see it recover the 7% before too long…", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "to_trackLs", "ret_m1d": 0.13012134673281905, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.13012134673281905, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12609337748066407, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.12609337748066407, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004027969252154984, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004027969252154984, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.10986339447847193, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.10986339447847193, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.09450656143737501, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.09450656143737501, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015356833041096918, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015356833041096918, "ret_p1w": 0.05667679095401579, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05667679095401579, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.035639941584704626, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.035639941584704626, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02103684936931116, "bench_c_p1w": 0.02103684936931116, "ret_p1m": 0.09226102716654827, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.09226102716654827, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04507340087680278, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04507340087680278, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04718762628974549, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04718762628974549, "ret_p3m": -0.158801212599036, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.158801212599036, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2002771681967025, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2002771681967025, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04147595559766648, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04147595559766648, "ret_p6m": -0.012670699015761788, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.012670699015761788, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.0915160876449318, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.0915160876449318, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07884538862917001, "bench_c_p6m": 0.07884538862917001, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.09226102716654827, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04507340087680278, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04507340087680278, "price_path": [-0.3102, -0.2607, -0.3025, -0.3064, -0.315, -0.3326, -0.3055, -0.2729, -0.2709, -0.2867, -0.2569, -0.1991, -0.2586, -0.2448, -0.2932, -0.2589, -0.2848, -0.3058, -0.3058, -0.2772, -0.2157, -0.2124, -0.23, -0.2175, -0.188, -0.2068, -0.1338, -0.1092, -0.1401, -0.1401, -0.1673, -0.1459, -0.105, -0.0756, -0.0945, -0.1121, -0.181, -0.1731, -0.1695, -0.1871, -0.1835, -0.0755, -0.0442, -0.0976, -0.0892, -0.0751, -0.077, -0.0912, -0.0936, -0.0593, 0.0136, 0.0175, -0.0025, 0.0029, 0.0108, 0.0195, 0.1095, 0.1767, 0.1848, 0.1835, 0.1631, 0.1788, 0.1301, 0.0, 0.1099, 0.0814, 0.0697, 0.0602, 0.0567, 0.0649, 0.0649, 0.0336, 0.0546, 0.1295, 0.1697, 0.1662, 0.1171, 0.1186, 0.1814, 0.1522, 0.1361, 0.1412, 0.1243, 0.1348, 0.0923, 0.0228, 0.0276, 0.0303, -0.015, -0.011, -0.0011, -0.0251, -0.0035, -0.025, -0.0046, -0.0584, -0.0806, -0.0627, -0.0738, -0.0998, -0.0923, -0.0356, -0.0421, -0.0505, -0.0439, -0.0305, -0.0055, -0.0255, 0.005, 0.0108, 0.0088, 0.0033, -0.0436, -0.0725, -0.0878, -0.0719, -0.0646, -0.0661, -0.0876, -0.0767, -0.072, -0.0549, -0.0536, -0.09, -0.0847, -0.1561, -0.1588, -0.1662, -0.1825, -0.0837, -0.0954, -0.0102, 0.0105, 0.0105, -0.0017, -0.0187, -0.0176, 0.0165, -0.2123, -0.2135, -0.2695, -0.2442, -0.2369, -0.1954, -0.1887, -0.1812, -0.1774, -0.1868, -0.1955, -0.2182, -0.2534, -0.2565, -0.2332, -0.2332, -0.2278, -0.2461, -0.2423, -0.2599, -0.2599, -0.2581, -0.2557, -0.2385, -0.2536, -0.1945, -0.0842, -0.0633, -0.0343, -0.0609, -0.048, -0.0663, -0.0663, -0.085, -0.0498, -0.0713, -0.119, -0.1334, -0.1404, -0.1448, -0.1255, -0.1453, -0.1528, -0.1177, -0.0659, -0.0717, -0.0449, -0.0384, -0.002, -0.018, -0.0533, -0.0127]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1963668006145335708", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-04T18:18:30+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "YOU CAN NOT OWN ENOUGH GOLD", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish gold in response to deficit spending / debt monetization macro thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "YOU CAN NOT OWN ENOUGH GOLD\n@TaviCosta @DonDurrett", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "The stock market continues to defy the macro bears; we believe deficit spending is as bullish for stocks as monetization of the debt. $7.1T of government outlays goes directly to US corporations through personal consumption. To balance the budget, the US would have to raise https://t.co/sc3Q8Q242x", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.004438495810080045, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.004438495810080045, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.012726645828067151, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.012726645828067151, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008288150017987106, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008288150017987106, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01334594055214322, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01334594055214322, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.016242229727389534, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.016242229727389534, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002896289175246314, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002896289175246314, "ret_p1w": 0.024702339416297736, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.024702339416297736, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.011592174520330234, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.011592174520330234, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.013110164895967502, "bench_c_p1w": 0.013110164895967502, "ret_p1m": 0.09473816760763087, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.09473816760763087, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06093015911375077, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06093015911375077, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.033808008493880104, "bench_c_p1m": 0.033808008493880104, "ret_p3m": 0.18534386525595847, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.18534386525595847, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1325038191358927, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1325038191358927, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.052840046120065765, "bench_c_p3m": 0.052840046120065765, "ret_p6m": 0.48076156718864804, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.48076156718864804, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4179002559458933, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4179002559458933, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06286131124275474, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06286131124275474, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.09473816760763087, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06093015911375077, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06093015911375077, "price_path": [-0.0614, -0.0612, -0.0561, -0.0444, -0.0318, -0.0456, -0.0451, -0.0503, -0.0503, -0.0507, -0.0478, -0.0628, -0.0599, -0.0609, -0.078, -0.0669, -0.0586, -0.0534, -0.0598, -0.0598, -0.0591, -0.069, -0.0648, -0.0627, -0.0537, -0.0572, -0.0611, -0.0564, -0.0585, -0.056, -0.0415, -0.0324, -0.0444, -0.0503, -0.059, -0.0651, -0.0626, -0.0788, -0.0726, -0.0538, -0.0483, -0.0475, -0.0496, -0.0415, -0.0418, -0.0555, -0.0564, -0.0535, -0.0595, -0.059, -0.0604, -0.0656, -0.0561, -0.0594, -0.0493, -0.0516, -0.0447, -0.0428, -0.0357, -0.0264, -0.0264, -0.0034, 0.0044, 0.0, 0.0133, 0.0249, 0.0226, 0.0262, 0.0247, 0.0267, 0.0374, 0.0395, 0.0315, 0.0273, 0.0382, 0.0562, 0.0605, 0.0509, 0.0553, 0.0614, 0.0789, 0.0881, 0.0898, 0.086, 0.0947, 0.1154, 0.1211, 0.1396, 0.1186, 0.1299, 0.1573, 0.1656, 0.1858, 0.2135, 0.1907, 0.234, 0.1547, 0.1549, 0.1595, 0.1556, 0.1234, 0.1154, 0.1111, 0.133, 0.1268, 0.1288, 0.1091, 0.1219, 0.1205, 0.1274, 0.1582, 0.1628, 0.1815, 0.172, 0.1508, 0.1376, 0.1459, 0.1478, 0.1474, 0.1456, 0.1638, 0.1634, 0.1727, 0.1727, 0.1873, 0.193, 0.1853, 0.1842, 0.185, 0.1829, 0.1798, 0.1858, 0.1909, 0.2037, 0.2104, 0.2115, 0.2118, 0.2222, 0.22, 0.2214, 0.2496, 0.2662, 0.2609, 0.2609, 0.2756, 0.2201, 0.221, 0.2131, 0.2131, 0.2191, 0.2512, 0.2647, 0.2527, 0.2596, 0.2687, 0.2924, 0.2906, 0.3038, 0.2958, 0.2896, 0.2896, 0.3384, 0.3579, 0.3829, 0.4019, 0.4224, 0.4573, 0.5139, 0.518, 0.362, 0.3074, 0.3906, 0.3896, 0.3526, 0.3942, 0.4296, 0.4154, 0.4314, 0.3817, 0.4161, 0.4161, 0.3719, 0.4028, 0.4067, 0.4344, 0.4732, 0.4528, 0.4491, 0.4616, 0.4808]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1914343222182097198", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-21T15:39:25+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Amazing that net length is the same as 2 years ago, when #gold was sub $2000 $GLD", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Net speculative length unchanged from when gold was sub-$2000; implied upside as positioning has not caught up to price.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "qme", "tweet_text": "$GLD $GDX https://t.co/iJhvb4mibE\n\n---\n\nAmazing that net length is the same as 2 years ago, when #gold was sub $2000 $GLD https://t.co/X6jbOc85VK", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030007292153088172, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030007292153088172, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05439026239926903, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05439026239926903, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.024382970246180857, "bench_c_m1d": 0.024382970246180857, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.014195668551963636, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.014195668551963636, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.040213428294155196, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.040213428294155196, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.02601775974219156, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02601775974219156, "ret_p1w": -0.020659682148768677, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.020659682148768677, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.09260246439596409, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.09260246439596409, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.07194278224719541, "bench_c_p1w": 0.07194278224719541, "ret_p1m": -0.03805573657273442, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03805573657273442, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.19172968296879012, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.19172968296879012, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1536739463960557, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1536739463960557, "ret_p3m": -0.025349345964168934, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.025349345964168934, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2511153050049415, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2511153050049415, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.22576595904077257, "bench_c_p3m": 0.22576595904077257, "ret_p6m": 0.2065972082880092, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2065972082880092, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.08948192260571819, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.08948192260571819, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.2960791308937274, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2960791308937274, "ret_p1y": 0.37688140885828836, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.37688140885828836, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.0462993428591878, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.0462993428591878, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.33058206599910056, "bench_c_p1y": 0.33058206599910056, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03805573657273442, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.19172968296879012, "alpha_c_stated": -0.19172968296879012, "price_path": [-0.1938, -0.1949, -0.1899, -0.1984, -0.1914, -0.1945, -0.1823, -0.1807, -0.1763, -0.1682, -0.1631, -0.1653, -0.1638, -0.1496, -0.1527, -0.1518, -0.1435, -0.1562, -0.1562, -0.1422, -0.1418, -0.1413, -0.1421, -0.1375, -0.1488, -0.1475, -0.1605, -0.1658, -0.1548, -0.1474, -0.1457, -0.15, -0.1496, -0.157, -0.1471, -0.1434, -0.1282, -0.1279, -0.1231, -0.1129, -0.1093, -0.1104, -0.1176, -0.1215, -0.1176, -0.1183, -0.1065, -0.0999, -0.087, -0.0888, -0.0869, -0.0924, -0.1137, -0.1327, -0.128, -0.0957, -0.0736, -0.056, -0.0613, -0.0564, -0.0257, -0.03, -0.03, 0.0, -0.0142, -0.0378, -0.0238, -0.0344, -0.0207, -0.0302, -0.0375, -0.0574, -0.0558, -0.0276, -0.0003, -0.0153, -0.0347, -0.0277, -0.0551, -0.0511, -0.0711, -0.0562, -0.0677, -0.0556, -0.0381, -0.031, -0.0395, -0.0185, -0.0185, -0.0351, -0.0373, -0.0316, -0.038, -0.0124, -0.0212, -0.0149, -0.0198, -0.033, -0.0284, -0.0281, -0.0229, -0.0107, 0.0022, -0.0121, -0.0116, -0.0169, -0.0169, -0.0173, -0.0143, -0.0298, -0.0268, -0.0279, -0.0455, -0.0341, -0.0255, -0.0201, -0.0268, -0.0268, -0.026, -0.0362, -0.0319, -0.0298, -0.0204, -0.024, -0.0281, -0.0232, -0.0253, -0.0228, -0.0078, 0.0016, -0.0108, -0.0169, -0.026, -0.0323, -0.0296, -0.0464, -0.04, -0.0205, -0.0148, -0.014, -0.0161, -0.0078, -0.008, -0.0223, -0.0232, -0.0202, -0.0264, -0.0259, -0.0274, -0.0327, -0.0229, -0.0263, -0.0159, -0.0183, -0.0111, -0.0091, -0.0018, 0.0079, 0.0079, 0.0317, 0.0398, 0.0352, 0.049, 0.0609, 0.0585, 0.0623, 0.0607, 0.0628, 0.0739, 0.076, 0.0677, 0.0635, 0.0747, 0.0933, 0.0978, 0.0879, 0.0924, 0.0987, 0.1168, 0.1264, 0.1281, 0.1242, 0.1332, 0.1546, 0.1606, 0.1797, 0.1579, 0.1696, 0.198, 0.2066]}
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{"unit_id": "thread:1955664340339798423", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-13T16:14:47+00:00", "symbol": "CAVA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": true, "quote": "IS FALAFEL CRUNCH WORTH 9X SALES?", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Mocking CAVA's 9x sales valuation as idiotic; implied bearish on stretched multiple.", "resolved_tickers": ["CAVA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Restaurants'", "bench_c_industry": "Restaurants", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE MOST IDIOTIC ARTICLE TITLE TODAY: $CAVA https://t.co/k8sUpaKbQr\n\n---\n\nIS FALAFEL CRUNCH WORTH 9X SALES? https://t.co/qVt45828ww\n\n---\n\nSEEMS ABOUT RIGHT;) https://t.co/kQQGcFV0Q5", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.19943227339072833, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.19943227339072833, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.2028437279162787, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.2129628621913806, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0034114545255503614, "bench_c_m1d": -0.013530588800652277, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.021575538806383632, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.021575538806383632, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.021668552377178463, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.020444298999266364, "bench_spy_p1d": 9.301357079483097e-05, "bench_c_p1d": -0.001131239807117268, "ret_p1w": -0.0269693964341865, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0269693964341865, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01645589645217682, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.017093309642155496, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010513499982009678, "bench_c_p1w": -0.009876086792031002, "ret_p1m": -0.08701203007746783, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08701203007746783, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10676736610908788, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11985939659816192, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019755336031620052, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03284736652069409, "ret_p3m": -0.2951028814962754, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2951028814962754, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3547086953420536, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3365710593639154, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05960581384577823, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04146817786764001, "ret_p6m": -0.0837472555296056, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.0837472555296056, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.14052668169328963, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11007345172923133, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05677942616368403, "bench_c_p6m": 0.02632619619962573, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08701203007746783, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10676736610908788, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11985939659816192, "price_path": [0.3742, 0.2784, 0.2687, 0.1879, 0.1974, 0.1842, 0.1842, 0.1688, 0.1627, 0.1622, 0.1536, 0.1533, 0.1506, 0.1645, 0.1119, 0.1218, 0.1103, 0.1117, 0.0906, 0.1107, 0.0585, 0.0575, 0.0605, 0.0568, 0.0568, 0.0592, 0.0681, 0.0537, 0.0502, 0.1025, 0.1056, 0.1956, 0.1685, 0.174, 0.2281, 0.2281, 0.1963, 0.243, 0.271, 0.2981, 0.3066, 0.2755, 0.252, 0.263, 0.2317, 0.2397, 0.241, 0.2765, 0.3015, 0.2244, 0.2494, 0.2487, 0.2145, 0.282, 0.2493, 0.1966, 0.2461, 0.243, 0.223, 0.2619, 0.2072, 0.1682, 0.1994, 0.0, -0.0216, -0.0078, -0.0094, -0.0284, -0.027, -0.0443, -0.0273, -0.071, -0.0487, -0.0385, -0.0318, -0.0412, -0.0412, -0.0693, -0.0644, -0.0637, -0.0542, -0.0725, -0.0734, -0.0751, -0.087, -0.0968, -0.1123, -0.1046, -0.1144, -0.0978, -0.0982, -0.0698, -0.0754, -0.0998, -0.1113, -0.1113, -0.1659, -0.1425, -0.1246, -0.1023, -0.0982, -0.0944, -0.1252, -0.1035, -0.0769, -0.1178, -0.1011, -0.0815, -0.0945, -0.1006, -0.1077, -0.1158, -0.0707, -0.0866, -0.0884, -0.0972, -0.1066, -0.118, -0.1417, -0.2378, -0.2373, -0.2532, -0.2661, -0.285, -0.3387, -0.3096, -0.2951, -0.3009, -0.308, -0.3158, -0.3297, -0.358, -0.3605, -0.3546, -0.3813, -0.3056, -0.3357, -0.3109, -0.2952, -0.2952, -0.306, -0.2759, -0.2515, -0.2265, -0.2267, -0.2424, -0.2356, -0.2491, -0.2464, -0.2527, -0.2456, -0.263, -0.2517, -0.246, -0.2045, -0.1922, -0.1762, -0.1576, -0.1239, -0.1239, -0.1462, -0.1489, -0.1719, -0.1669, -0.1669, -0.1405, -0.0989, -0.0474, -0.0362, -0.0121, 0.0058, 0.0035, -0.0274, 0.0017, 0.022, 0.0233, 0.0233, -0.0199, -0.0501, -0.0619, -0.0586, -0.1121, -0.1153, -0.11, -0.1053, -0.1395, -0.154, -0.1357, -0.0715, -0.0837]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1942392260462526546", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-07-08T01:16:17+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will be loss making by the end of this year. They have no new models this year or next. The Cybertruck may be the biggest new model bust in the history of the auto industry. They are losing market share. They are cutting prices. EV credits are gone. They are loss making without EV credits. Used $TSLA prices are collapsing. They have no moat.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Short TSLA: forecasts loss-making by year-end, no new models, Cybertruck bust, shrinking share, price cuts, gone EV credits, collapsing used prices, no moat.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA will be loss making by the end of this year. They have no new models this year or next. The Cybertruck may be the biggest new model bust in the history of the auto industry. They are losing market share. They are cutting prices. EV credits are gone. They are loss making without EV credits. Used $TSLA prices are collapsing. They have no moat. I can keep going. @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @thedave2006 Possible but I doubt it, highly unlikely.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "realroseceline", "ret_m1d": -0.01299484620702196, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01299484620702196, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.01354278214586957, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.016394520319847006, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0005479359388476102, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0033996741128250463, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0064806174796113725, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0064806174796113725, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012477074001372102, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.012407104092577614, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005996456521760729, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005926486612966242, "ret_p1w": 0.04355126196913961, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04355126196913961, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.04064982776572079, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.03707329354730171, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002901434203418818, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0064779684218378986, "ret_p1m": 0.07420840900133818, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07420840900133818, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.054155028023708196, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04756136753239293, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.020053380977629987, "bench_c_p1m": 0.026647041468945254, "ret_p3m": 0.4433027436820589, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.4433027436820589, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.361532556450717, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.3485700943764485, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08177018723134188, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09473264930561043, "ret_p6m": 0.5100903425252581, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.5100903425252581, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.4045174719199123, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.40876103540005104, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10557287060534581, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10132930712520705, "ret_p1y": 0.25959503775014503, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.25959503775014503, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.06277372276357984, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.2099702234142744, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.1968213149865652, "bench_c_p1y": 0.049624814335870626, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07420840900133818, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.054155028023708196, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04756136753239293, "price_path": [-0.1525, -0.1528, -0.1526, -0.1467, -0.1889, -0.1895, -0.1895, -0.2361, -0.2009, -0.1581, -0.1286, -0.0432, -0.0401, -0.0194, -0.0526, -0.0581, -0.0356, -0.0589, -0.0754, -0.0725, -0.0436, 0.0015, 0.0691, 0.1218, 0.1675, 0.1511, 0.1752, 0.1487, 0.1545, 0.1236, 0.1452, 0.1395, 0.1395, 0.2185, 0.1984, 0.2036, 0.1634, 0.1507, 0.156, 0.115, -0.044, -0.009, 0.0362, 0.095, 0.0961, 0.0715, 0.0923, 0.1052, 0.0623, 0.0814, 0.0814, 0.0818, 0.1708, 0.1432, 0.0999, 0.0939, 0.0867, 0.0667, 0.0097, 0.0599, 0.0589, 0.0589, -0.013, 0.0, -0.0065, 0.0405, 0.0527, 0.0641, 0.0436, 0.0801, 0.0725, 0.1069, 0.103, 0.1152, 0.1167, 0.0252, 0.0613, 0.0933, 0.0785, 0.0713, 0.0351, 0.0162, 0.0384, 0.0366, 0.0742, 0.0821, 0.1069, 0.1384, 0.1445, 0.1396, 0.1268, 0.11, 0.1254, 0.1058, 0.0876, 0.0749, 0.1417, 0.1638, 0.1809, 0.1739, 0.1617, 0.1211, 0.1211, 0.1059, 0.1218, 0.1367, 0.1781, 0.1632, 0.1651, 0.1678, 0.2384, 0.3295, 0.3769, 0.4157, 0.43, 0.3997, 0.4307, 0.458, 0.4299, 0.4868, 0.4217, 0.4788, 0.4882, 0.4933, 0.5428, 0.464, 0.4433, 0.5219, 0.4542, 0.4731, 0.4625, 0.3884, 0.4637, 0.4413, 0.4612, 0.4397, 0.4751, 0.5024, 0.4862, 0.474, 0.5076, 0.4564, 0.5192, 0.5465, 0.5497, 0.4778, 0.5331, 0.5727, 0.4918, 0.5516, 0.4973, 0.4423, 0.495, 0.4762, 0.4459, 0.3498, 0.3577, 0.3731, 0.3473, 0.3565, 0.3271, 0.3132, 0.4028, 0.4083, 0.4324, 0.4324, 0.4444, 0.4443, 0.4413, 0.5001, 0.5262, 0.5278, 0.476, 0.4948, 0.5159, 0.5006, 0.5411, 0.596, 0.6449, 0.569, 0.6231, 0.6158, 0.6411, 0.6304, 0.6299, 0.6299, 0.5956, 0.5434, 0.5259, 0.5101]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1964025503385579990", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-05T17:59:04+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "analytical malpractice with his $OPEN cheerleading. His price target of $82 would imply a market of $60b. Revenues are tracking at $5b, down from a peak of $15b. Show me your math Eric! Have you no shame?", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: calls $82 PT implying $60B mkt cap delusional given revenues tracking at $5B, down from $15B peak.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Total clown show. @ericjackson is guilty of analytical malpractice with his $OPEN cheerleading. His price target of $82 would imply a market of $60b. Revenues are tracking at $5b, down from a peak of $15b. Show me your math Eric! Have you no shame? Or brains? @APompliano how about your calculations? I challenge both of you to a debate.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$open best guys out there!\n\n@ericjackson @rabois @APompliano https://t.co/VHX8S3QrwD", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.10375940561281072, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.10375940561281072, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.10666410764511058, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.09380189155498975, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0029047020322998662, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009957514057820971, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.09172934207013728, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.09172934207013728, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.09418592004033921, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.08509103055047051, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002456577970201934, "bench_c_p1d": -0.006638311519666762, "ret_p1w": 0.363909708985211, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.363909708985211, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.3481966678027051, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.35987938241265494, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015713041182505938, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004030326572556087, "ret_p1m": 0.39548866163714624, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.39548866163714624, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.35495955869666096, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.4002784810279204, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.040529102940485284, "bench_c_p1m": -0.004789819390774164, "ret_p3m": 0.04360901619460855, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.04360901619460855, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.015945622857191477, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.062493330787423806, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05955463905180003, "bench_c_p3m": -0.018884314592815254, "ret_p6m": -0.24060148596797337, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24060148596797337, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.30715610890637624, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.30126707411367326, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06655462293840286, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06066558814569989, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.39548866163714624, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.35495955869666096, "alpha_c_stated": -0.4002784810279204, "price_path": [-0.9093, -0.9086, -0.9096, -0.9135, -0.9164, -0.9147, -0.9128, -0.9128, -0.9195, -0.9203, -0.9173, -0.923, -0.9191, -0.9161, -0.9198, -0.915, -0.9149, -0.9083, -0.9083, -0.9059, -0.8899, -0.8892, -0.8672, -0.8829, -0.8645, -0.8436, -0.7759, -0.7519, -0.6617, -0.5173, -0.5669, -0.6556, -0.6361, -0.618, -0.6481, -0.6917, -0.6887, -0.7233, -0.6842, -0.6301, -0.6211, -0.7143, -0.7218, -0.7068, -0.6526, -0.6286, -0.6361, -0.5429, -0.5233, -0.4316, -0.4556, -0.5158, -0.4586, -0.2466, -0.3173, -0.2932, -0.3955, -0.3579, -0.3308, -0.3308, -0.2346, -0.2286, -0.1038, 0.0, -0.0917, -0.0812, -0.1188, 0.582, 0.3639, 0.4278, 0.3414, 0.5353, 0.4947, 0.4391, 0.2602, 0.0662, 0.2376, 0.3669, 0.3248, 0.2331, 0.1985, 0.212, 0.2045, 0.2195, 0.3955, 0.397, 0.2767, 0.2241, 0.1383, 0.0932, 0.1489, 0.1098, 0.0692, 0.0767, 0.1083, 0.0466, 0.0256, 0.0571, 0.1985, 0.2271, 0.1985, 0.1504, 0.1038, 0.1684, 0.1414, 0.0406, 0.0872, -0.0135, -0.0135, 0.1985, 0.2752, 0.409, 0.2872, 0.2211, 0.1789, 0.1308, 0.006, -0.0737, 0.015, 0.1564, 0.1639, 0.1699, 0.1699, 0.1579, 0.0737, 0.0511, 0.0436, 0.1398, 0.0752, 0.0602, 0.1143, 0.0526, 0.0602, -0.0135, -0.0271, 0.012, -0.0797, -0.0556, -0.0436, -0.0346, -0.0571, -0.0556, -0.0556, -0.0962, -0.1233, -0.1218, -0.1233, -0.1233, -0.0872, -0.0496, 0.0421, -0.0797, -0.0331, 0.0962, 0.0556, 0.018, -0.0015, -0.0526, 0.003, 0.003, -0.0391, -0.0256, -0.0346, -0.0962, -0.1173, -0.1263, -0.1338, -0.1609, -0.2256, -0.2752, -0.2286, -0.2481, -0.2932, -0.2662, -0.2571, -0.2947, -0.2842, -0.3414, -0.3316, -0.3316, -0.3489, -0.3038, -0.3008, -0.2481, -0.2812, -0.2316, -0.2511, -0.1865, -0.185, -0.2406]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1951274402399527277", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-01T13:30:45+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the MNAV will continue to decline. I ultimately expect the MNAV to fall below 1. The $MSTR bulls still don't get the joke.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish MSTR: expects mNAV to keep falling below 1, dismissing bulls.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Looking at theory, the MNAV will continue to decline. I ultimately expect the MNAV to fall below 1. The $MSTR bulls still don’t get the joke.  $BTC\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/POzSwkMyo4", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.09609137277242419, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.09609137277242419, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07942783277145149, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07942783277145149, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0166635400009727, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0166635400009727, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06166976256836754, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06166976256836754, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04646999840829413, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04646999840829413, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015199764160073403, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015199764160073403, "ret_p1w": 0.07773504519661345, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07773504519661345, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.05286842478474729, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05286842478474729, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.024866620411866158, "bench_c_p1w": 0.024866620411866158, "ret_p1m": -0.0878815175833787, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0878815175833787, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1254064688719123, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1254064688719123, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.037524951288533615, "bench_c_p1m": 0.037524951288533615, "ret_p3m": -0.2489431260827193, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2489431260827193, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3576347604156924, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3576347604156924, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10869163433297313, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10869163433297313, "ret_p6m": -0.5620107473680951, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5620107473680951, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.6826168639202663, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.6826168639202663, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.12060611655217124, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12060611655217124, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0878815175833787, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1254064688719123, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1254064688719123, "price_path": [0.0517, 0.0705, 0.1302, 0.1347, 0.1044, 0.15, 0.1367, 0.0829, 0.0905, 0.1276, 0.1372, 0.0984, 0.0895, 0.0079, 0.0079, 0.0152, -0.0065, 0.0109, 0.0066, 0.0154, 0.0567, 0.0313, 0.0059, 0.0214, 0.0695, 0.067, 0.0559, 0.0358, 0.0443, 0.0426, 0.0233, 0.0065, 0.0065, 0.0084, 0.0015, 0.0283, 0.0601, 0.054, 0.0471, 0.1026, 0.0182, 0.0972, 0.1019, 0.1019, 0.0792, 0.0827, 0.133, 0.1503, 0.1853, 0.2302, 0.2064, 0.2435, 0.2311, 0.1544, 0.1627, 0.163, 0.1256, 0.1317, 0.1071, 0.1014, 0.0765, 0.0775, 0.0961, 0.0, 0.0617, 0.0241, 0.0458, 0.0965, 0.0777, 0.0917, 0.0757, 0.0635, 0.0172, -0.0008, -0.0083, -0.082, -0.0607, -0.0792, -0.0232, -0.0639, -0.0416, -0.067, -0.0758, -0.0879, -0.0879, -0.0682, -0.0992, -0.1065, -0.0839, -0.1002, -0.1039, -0.1096, -0.1108, -0.096, -0.1059, -0.086, -0.1007, -0.0478, -0.0597, -0.0837, -0.106, -0.1182, -0.1798, -0.157, -0.1097, -0.1212, -0.077, -0.039, -0.0409, -0.0189, -0.1043, -0.0977, -0.1264, -0.1687, -0.1395, -0.1799, -0.1906, -0.2258, -0.2094, -0.191, -0.1765, -0.2341, -0.2229, -0.2115, -0.1937, -0.2236, -0.2489, -0.3056, -0.2649, -0.2781, -0.3263, -0.3045, -0.353, -0.3401, -0.3484, -0.369, -0.3874, -0.4312, -0.4552, -0.467, -0.4359, -0.4913, -0.5169, -0.535, -0.5117, -0.5303, -0.5209, -0.5209, -0.5167, -0.5324, -0.5054, -0.4862, -0.4926, -0.5118, -0.499, -0.4845, -0.4964, -0.5, -0.5187, -0.5579, -0.5431, -0.5626, -0.5684, -0.5504, -0.5518, -0.5694, -0.5671, -0.5671, -0.5668, -0.5762, -0.5756, -0.5855, -0.5855, -0.5713, -0.5507, -0.5691, -0.5586, -0.5446, -0.5709, -0.5575, -0.5282, -0.5109, -0.5338, -0.5262, -0.5262, -0.563, -0.5532, -0.5609, -0.5551, -0.562]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1935707865768997144", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-06-19T14:34:53+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "BUY BITCOIN! HOW MANY TIMES DOES DILLEY HAVE TO TELL YOU?", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Emphatic buy call on Bitcoin as the top opportunity in today's chaotic market, with potential to double or triple money.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This has been a strange year for the stock market...\nAnd it's about to get even stranger. \nJUST WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO IRAN.\nOn March 25, I announced, \"A crash of epic proportions is coming.\" AND I WAS RIGHT.\n9 trillion was wiped off the stock market by the tariff crash just 13 days later, far worse than I'd anticipated (BUT MY MAN KRAMER NAILED IT BECAUSE HE IS ALWAYS BEARISH).\nThe markets went on to recover all the losses, JUST LIKE I PREDICTED.\nBut more than half of Americans are still bearish today. DEGENS, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?\nIf you're scared or confused by all this, you're not alone. In my 50 years on Wall Street, I've rarely seen such peculiar conditions.\nAlong with such an extraordinary opportunity to make money right now.\nLet Captain Obvious show you how.\nIn short, today's chaotic market has opened the most lucrative new investment vehicle I've seen in my career.\nI have discovered a LITTKE KNOWN, OVERLOOKED opportunity, the secret to unlocking unfathomable profits… BUY BITCOIN! HOW MANY TIMES DOES DILLEY HAVE TO TELL YOU?\nBut if you know what's coming next to the market, it could double or triple your money on multiple occasions this Y̶e̶a̶r̶ month. \nJust follow @MichaelMOTTCM and @TommyThornton for “HOW TO MAKE MONEY IN CONFUSING MARKETS.”\n\nRegards,\nCaptain Obvious\n\n@moneyprinter @TommyThornton @MichaelMOTTCM\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/8rg2jl6Ab8", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.001901326973536177, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.001901326973536177, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.00045277943643484697, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.00045277943643484697, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "bench_c_m1d": 0.002354106409971024, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.013131746055793259, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.013131746055793259, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.02300912795301613, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.02300912795301613, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00987738189722287, "ret_p1w": 0.021738801093078353, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.021738801093078353, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.012975493774170177, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.012975493774170177, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03471429486724853, "ret_p1m": 0.12722957398170953, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.12722957398170953, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06919290703501457, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06919290703501457, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05803666694669496, "ret_p3m": 0.11614826395048383, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11614826395048383, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.006940468005715017, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.006940468005715017, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10920779594476882, "ret_p6m": -0.13768899926706712, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.13768899926706712, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.2863348792537461, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.2863348792537461, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "bench_c_p6m": 0.148645879986679, "ret_p1y": -0.3973251343753902, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.3973251343753902, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.6480853383674853, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.6480853383674853, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2507602039920951, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.12722957398170953, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06919290703501457, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06919290703501457, "price_path": [-0.1642, -0.1644, -0.1699, -0.1672, -0.1942, -0.2114, -0.1864, -0.2121, -0.2062, -0.1991, -0.2431, -0.2714, -0.2112, -0.2394, -0.2033, -0.1924, -0.2007, -0.1973, -0.189, -0.1933, -0.164, -0.1074, -0.1049, -0.1026, -0.0952, -0.0927, -0.0993, -0.1001, -0.0783, -0.0743, -0.0949, -0.0753, -0.0731, -0.0138, -0.0164, -0.0179, -0.0049, -0.0109, -0.009, -0.0114, 0.0088, 0.0201, 0.0477, 0.0668, 0.0249, 0.0454, 0.0412, 0.0298, 0.0091, -0.0066, 0.0114, 0.0071, 0.0005, -0.0297, -0.0028, 0.0536, 0.0532, 0.0382, 0.0119, 0.0134, 0.0202, -0.0008, 0.0019, 0.0, -0.0131, 0.0085, 0.013, 0.0256, 0.0217, 0.023, 0.0234, 0.0097, 0.0399, 0.0474, 0.032, 0.0345, 0.0408, 0.0635, 0.108, 0.1226, 0.1449, 0.1251, 0.1343, 0.1395, 0.1272, 0.1218, 0.1463, 0.1344, 0.1307, 0.1237, 0.1265, 0.1265, 0.1256, 0.1058, 0.0825, 0.0992, 0.0903, 0.0988, 0.1224, 0.1147, 0.1342, 0.148, 0.1782, 0.1306, 0.1215, 0.1105, 0.0778, 0.0916, 0.0739, 0.1164, 0.052, 0.068, 0.0625, 0.0751, 0.0356, 0.0436, 0.0622, 0.0672, 0.0577, 0.057, 0.0706, 0.0654, 0.0886, 0.1034, 0.1091, 0.1028, 0.1161, 0.1126, 0.119, 0.1051, 0.077, 0.07, 0.0826, 0.0417, 0.048, 0.0928, 0.0895, 0.1334, 0.1528, 0.168, 0.1917, 0.1602, 0.1784, 0.1626, 0.0815, 0.1011, 0.0806, 0.0583, 0.0335, 0.017, 0.0564, 0.0362, 0.0287, 0.0514, 0.0607, 0.0901, 0.079, 0.0513, 0.0346, 0.0465, 0.0178, -0.0296, -0.0076, -0.0323, -0.0125, 0.0125, -0.0161, -0.0289, -0.0476, -0.0983, -0.1203, -0.1121, -0.1263, -0.1724, -0.1872, -0.1568, -0.1657, -0.1353, -0.128, -0.1315, -0.1754, -0.1274, -0.1066, -0.1198, -0.1461, -0.1342, -0.1146, -0.121, -0.1163, -0.1377]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1963651135157522794", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-04T17:11:28+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$MSTR shareholders are going to get an education!!!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish MSTR; implies shareholders will suffer a painful lesson.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "That this question is even asked and has 474k impressions is truly pathetic. $MSTR shareholders are going to get an education!!! https://t.co/93MNf6c5mo", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "MSTR hit an all-time high of $543 on November 20, 2024 when BTC was at $94,300.\n\nThat was almost one year ago.\n\nAt the time MSTR owned approximately 331,200 BTC. They have since acquired an additional 305,305 BTC and now hold 636,505 BTC total.\n\nThat's over 3% of all the bitcoin https://t.co/LvxWpsy8A6", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.008150473022932037, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.008150473022932037, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.016438623040919143, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.016438623040919143, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008288150017987106, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008288150017987106, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.025275493366276436, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.025275493366276436, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.02817178254152275, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.02817178254152275, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002896289175246314, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002896289175246314, "ret_p1w": -0.004792598497419864, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.004792598497419864, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.017902763393387366, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.017902763393387366, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.013110164895967502, "bench_c_p1w": 0.013110164895967502, "ret_p1m": 0.07338444034819047, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07338444034819047, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.03957643185431037, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.03957643185431037, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.033808008493880104, "bench_c_p1m": 0.033808008493880104, "ret_p3m": -0.44647271327533755, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.44647271327533755, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4993127593954033, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.4993127593954033, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.052840046120065765, "bench_c_p3m": 0.052840046120065765, "ret_p6m": -0.604688783394875, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.604688783394875, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.6675500946376297, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.6675500946376297, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06286131124275474, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06286131124275474, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07338444034819047, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.03957643185431037, "alpha_c_stated": -0.03957643185431037, "price_path": [0.197, 0.1941, 0.1817, 0.1593, 0.1687, 0.1669, 0.1453, 0.1265, 0.1265, 0.1285, 0.1209, 0.1509, 0.1865, 0.1796, 0.1718, 0.234, 0.1395, 0.228, 0.2332, 0.2332, 0.2078, 0.2117, 0.2681, 0.2874, 0.3266, 0.3768, 0.3502, 0.3917, 0.3778, 0.2919, 0.3013, 0.3016, 0.2597, 0.2666, 0.239, 0.2326, 0.2047, 0.2059, 0.2267, 0.1192, 0.1882, 0.1461, 0.1704, 0.2272, 0.2062, 0.2218, 0.2039, 0.1902, 0.1384, 0.1182, 0.1099, 0.0274, 0.0512, 0.0305, 0.0932, 0.0477, 0.0726, 0.0442, 0.0343, 0.0208, 0.0208, 0.0428, 0.0082, 0.0, 0.0253, 0.0071, 0.0029, -0.0035, -0.0048, 0.0118, 0.0006, 0.0229, 0.0065, 0.0657, 0.0524, 0.0255, 0.0006, -0.0131, -0.0821, -0.0566, -0.0036, -0.0164, 0.033, 0.0755, 0.0734, 0.098, 0.0025, 0.0098, -0.0223, -0.0696, -0.037, -0.0822, -0.0941, -0.1336, -0.1151, -0.0946, -0.0784, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1176, -0.0976, -0.1311, -0.1594, -0.2229, -0.1773, -0.1921, -0.246, -0.2216, -0.2759, -0.2615, -0.2708, -0.2938, -0.3144, -0.3634, -0.3902, -0.4035, -0.3687, -0.4307, -0.4593, -0.4795, -0.4535, -0.4744, -0.4638, -0.4638, -0.4591, -0.4767, -0.4465, -0.4249, -0.4322, -0.4536, -0.4393, -0.4231, -0.4364, -0.4405, -0.4614, -0.5052, -0.4887, -0.5104, -0.517, -0.4969, -0.4984, -0.5181, -0.5155, -0.5155, -0.5152, -0.5257, -0.525, -0.5362, -0.5362, -0.5203, -0.4972, -0.5178, -0.506, -0.4903, -0.5197, -0.5048, -0.4719, -0.4526, -0.4783, -0.4697, -0.4697, -0.5109, -0.5, -0.5086, -0.5021, -0.5098, -0.5068, -0.5163, -0.5629, -0.543, -0.5738, -0.5932, -0.6059, -0.6734, -0.5881, -0.5774, -0.594, -0.6152, -0.6245, -0.5913, -0.5913, -0.6072, -0.6178, -0.6048, -0.6, -0.6224, -0.6196, -0.5859, -0.5928, -0.6047]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1911965647778484425", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-15T02:11:47+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "gold is heading much higher INHO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Long gold; treats it as an investment, expects much higher prices despite near-term pullbacks.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Again, gold is an investment, not a trade. The crowd has only recently got the memo. No doubt pullbacks will occur, but #gold is heading much higher INHO. $GLD https://t.co/idBCcyMJQi", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.00520514406381456, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.00520514406381456, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.00801403354625152, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.00801403354625152, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0028088894824369603, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0028088894824369603, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0325408102664011, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0325408102664011, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05476866096168698, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05476866096168698, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.022227850695285878, "bench_c_p1d": -0.022227850695285878, "ret_p1w": 0.04476454639972416, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04476454639972416, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06403487754773884, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06403487754773884, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019270331148014685, "bench_c_p1w": -0.019270331148014685, "ret_p1m": -0.015514793257191406, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.015514793257191406, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10848192022422276, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10848192022422276, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09296712696703135, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09296712696703135, "ret_p3m": 0.03814902248542307, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03814902248542307, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.12526610727230758, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12526610727230758, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.16341512975773065, "bench_c_p3m": 0.16341512975773065, "ret_p6m": 0.2502518279238197, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2502518279238197, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.008972590234376243, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.008972590234376243, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.25922441815819597, "bench_c_p6m": 0.25922441815819597, "ret_p1y": 0.44203776419641816, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.44203776419641816, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.2081540237613846, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.2081540237613846, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.23388374043503357, "bench_c_p1y": 0.23388374043503357, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.015514793257191406, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.10848192022422276, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10848192022422276, "price_path": [-0.1584, -0.1629, -0.1629, -0.1499, -0.1456, -0.1468, -0.1415, -0.1504, -0.1431, -0.1463, -0.1334, -0.1317, -0.1271, -0.1185, -0.113, -0.1154, -0.1138, -0.0988, -0.1021, -0.1011, -0.0922, -0.1057, -0.1057, -0.0909, -0.0904, -0.09, -0.0908, -0.0859, -0.0979, -0.0965, -0.1103, -0.1159, -0.1042, -0.0964, -0.0946, -0.0992, -0.0987, -0.1066, -0.0961, -0.0922, -0.0761, -0.0757, -0.0707, -0.0598, -0.056, -0.0572, -0.0648, -0.0689, -0.0648, -0.0656, -0.0531, -0.0461, -0.0324, -0.0343, -0.0323, -0.0381, -0.0606, -0.0808, -0.0758, -0.0416, -0.0182, 0.0005, -0.0052, 0.0, 0.0325, 0.028, 0.028, 0.0598, 0.0448, 0.0197, 0.0346, 0.0233, 0.0379, 0.0278, 0.0201, -0.0011, 0.0007, 0.0306, 0.0594, 0.0436, 0.023, 0.0304, 0.0014, 0.0056, -0.0155, 0.0002, -0.0119, 0.0008, 0.0195, 0.027, 0.0179, 0.0402, 0.0402, 0.0226, 0.0202, 0.0263, 0.0195, 0.0466, 0.0374, 0.0441, 0.0388, 0.0249, 0.0297, 0.03, 0.0356, 0.0484, 0.0622, 0.047, 0.0476, 0.0419, 0.0419, 0.0415, 0.0447, 0.0282, 0.0314, 0.0302, 0.0116, 0.0237, 0.0328, 0.0385, 0.0314, 0.0314, 0.0322, 0.0214, 0.026, 0.0283, 0.0381, 0.0344, 0.0301, 0.0352, 0.0329, 0.0356, 0.0515, 0.0615, 0.0484, 0.0419, 0.0323, 0.0256, 0.0284, 0.0107, 0.0174, 0.038, 0.0441, 0.0449, 0.0427, 0.0515, 0.0513, 0.0362, 0.0352, 0.0384, 0.0318, 0.0324, 0.0308, 0.0252, 0.0355, 0.0319, 0.043, 0.0405, 0.048, 0.0501, 0.0579, 0.0681, 0.0681, 0.0934, 0.102, 0.0971, 0.1117, 0.1244, 0.1218, 0.1259, 0.1242, 0.1264, 0.1381, 0.1404, 0.1316, 0.1271, 0.139, 0.1587, 0.1635, 0.1529, 0.1577, 0.1644, 0.1836, 0.1937, 0.1956, 0.1915, 0.201, 0.2237, 0.23, 0.2503]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1914359807991022022", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-21T16:45:19+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Real money vs American pesos", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Continues to favor gold over long-duration Treasuries; GLD/TLT ratio up 19% and trend seen persisting.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$GLD vs $TLT has risen 19% since this post. The song remains the same. Real money vs American pesos. https://t.co/bmAnMLLtZ4", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$GLD vs $TLT. Relentlessly from the lower left to the upper right. Yes, this is a price only chart, but on a total return basis, A STORE OF VALUE HAS DOUBLED VS A US TREASURY. As @gave_vincent would posit, “Is the USA going Turkish?” https://t.co/wuJmuWRfzT", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030007292153088172, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030007292153088172, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05439026239926903, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05439026239926903, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.024382970246180857, "bench_c_m1d": 0.024382970246180857, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.014195668551963636, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.014195668551963636, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.040213428294155196, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.040213428294155196, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.02601775974219156, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02601775974219156, "ret_p1w": -0.020659682148768677, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.020659682148768677, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.09260246439596409, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.09260246439596409, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.07194278224719541, "bench_c_p1w": 0.07194278224719541, "ret_p1m": -0.03805573657273442, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03805573657273442, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.19172968296879012, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.19172968296879012, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1536739463960557, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1536739463960557, "ret_p3m": -0.025349345964168934, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.025349345964168934, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2511153050049415, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2511153050049415, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.22576595904077257, "bench_c_p3m": 0.22576595904077257, "ret_p6m": 0.2065972082880092, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2065972082880092, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.08948192260571819, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.08948192260571819, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.2960791308937274, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2960791308937274, "ret_p1y": 0.37688140885828836, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.37688140885828836, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.0462993428591878, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.0462993428591878, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.33058206599910056, "bench_c_p1y": 0.33058206599910056, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03805573657273442, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.19172968296879012, "alpha_c_stated": -0.19172968296879012, "price_path": [-0.1938, -0.1949, -0.1899, -0.1984, -0.1914, -0.1945, -0.1823, -0.1807, -0.1763, -0.1682, -0.1631, -0.1653, -0.1638, -0.1496, -0.1527, -0.1518, -0.1435, -0.1562, -0.1562, -0.1422, -0.1418, -0.1413, -0.1421, -0.1375, -0.1488, -0.1475, -0.1605, -0.1658, -0.1548, -0.1474, -0.1457, -0.15, -0.1496, -0.157, -0.1471, -0.1434, -0.1282, -0.1279, -0.1231, -0.1129, -0.1093, -0.1104, -0.1176, -0.1215, -0.1176, -0.1183, -0.1065, -0.0999, -0.087, -0.0888, -0.0869, -0.0924, -0.1137, -0.1327, -0.128, -0.0957, -0.0736, -0.056, -0.0613, -0.0564, -0.0257, -0.03, -0.03, 0.0, -0.0142, -0.0378, -0.0238, -0.0344, -0.0207, -0.0302, -0.0375, -0.0574, -0.0558, -0.0276, -0.0003, -0.0153, -0.0347, -0.0277, -0.0551, -0.0511, -0.0711, -0.0562, -0.0677, -0.0556, -0.0381, -0.031, -0.0395, -0.0185, -0.0185, -0.0351, -0.0373, -0.0316, -0.038, -0.0124, -0.0212, -0.0149, -0.0198, -0.033, -0.0284, -0.0281, -0.0229, -0.0107, 0.0022, -0.0121, -0.0116, -0.0169, -0.0169, -0.0173, -0.0143, -0.0298, -0.0268, -0.0279, -0.0455, -0.0341, -0.0255, -0.0201, -0.0268, -0.0268, -0.026, -0.0362, -0.0319, -0.0298, -0.0204, -0.024, -0.0281, -0.0232, -0.0253, -0.0228, -0.0078, 0.0016, -0.0108, -0.0169, -0.026, -0.0323, -0.0296, -0.0464, -0.04, -0.0205, -0.0148, -0.014, -0.0161, -0.0078, -0.008, -0.0223, -0.0232, -0.0202, -0.0264, -0.0259, -0.0274, -0.0327, -0.0229, -0.0263, -0.0159, -0.0183, -0.0111, -0.0091, -0.0018, 0.0079, 0.0079, 0.0317, 0.0398, 0.0352, 0.049, 0.0609, 0.0585, 0.0623, 0.0607, 0.0628, 0.0739, 0.076, 0.0677, 0.0635, 0.0747, 0.0933, 0.0978, 0.0879, 0.0924, 0.0987, 0.1168, 0.1264, 0.1281, 0.1242, 0.1332, 0.1546, 0.1606, 0.1797, 0.1579, 0.1696, 0.198, 0.2066]}
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{"unit_id": "orig:1963252882586657168", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-03T14:48:57+00:00", "symbol": "GC=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish on gold; author says you can't own enough of it.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Maf is hard. You can’t own enough gold! https://t.co/PECQ95rA5b", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.007771128776473346, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.007771128776473346, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.002380795772017219, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.002380795772017219, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005390333004456127, "bench_c_m1d": -0.005390333004456127, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.004418882618094533, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004418882618094533, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.012776300166485677, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012776300166485677, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.008357417548391144, "bench_c_p1d": 0.008357417548391144, "ret_p1w": 0.021698039859039175, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.021698039859039175, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.008540619396384397, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.008540619396384397, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.013157420462654779, "bench_c_p1w": 0.013157420462654779, "ret_p1m": 0.08121531269216486, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08121531269216486, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03875200077739027, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03875200077739027, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04246331191477459, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04246331191477459, "ret_p3m": 0.1877551734053835, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1877551734053835, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12807882154180783, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.12807882154180783, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05967635186357567, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05967635186357567, "ret_p6m": 0.45511059203764104, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.45511059203764104, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3781952210998272, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3781952210998272, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07691537093781387, "bench_c_p6m": 0.07691537093781387, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08121531269216486, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03875200077739027, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03875200077739027, "price_path": [-0.07, -0.0656, -0.0653, -0.0602, -0.0486, -0.0361, -0.0499, -0.0494, -0.0545, -0.0545, -0.0549, -0.052, -0.0669, -0.0641, -0.0651, -0.082, -0.071, -0.0627, -0.0576, -0.064, -0.064, -0.0633, -0.0731, -0.0689, -0.0669, -0.0579, -0.0613, -0.0652, -0.0606, -0.0626, -0.0602, -0.0457, -0.0367, -0.0486, -0.0545, -0.0632, -0.0693, -0.0667, -0.0828, -0.0767, -0.058, -0.0525, -0.0517, -0.0538, -0.0458, -0.046, -0.0597, -0.0606, -0.0577, -0.0637, -0.0631, -0.0646, -0.0697, -0.0603, -0.0635, -0.0535, -0.0558, -0.0489, -0.047, -0.04, -0.0307, -0.0307, -0.0078, 0.0, -0.0044, 0.0089, 0.0204, 0.018, 0.0217, 0.0202, 0.0222, 0.0328, 0.0349, 0.0269, 0.0228, 0.0336, 0.0515, 0.0558, 0.0463, 0.0506, 0.0567, 0.0741, 0.0833, 0.085, 0.0812, 0.0899, 0.1104, 0.1162, 0.1346, 0.1136, 0.1249, 0.1522, 0.1604, 0.1806, 0.2082, 0.1854, 0.2286, 0.1496, 0.1498, 0.1544, 0.1505, 0.1185, 0.1104, 0.1062, 0.128, 0.1218, 0.1238, 0.1042, 0.1169, 0.1156, 0.1224, 0.1531, 0.1576, 0.1763, 0.1668, 0.1457, 0.1326, 0.1408, 0.1427, 0.1423, 0.1406, 0.1587, 0.1583, 0.1676, 0.1676, 0.1821, 0.1878, 0.1801, 0.179, 0.1798, 0.1777, 0.1746, 0.1806, 0.1856, 0.1984, 0.2051, 0.2062, 0.2065, 0.2168, 0.2146, 0.216, 0.2441, 0.2606, 0.2553, 0.2553, 0.27, 0.2147, 0.2156, 0.2077, 0.2077, 0.2138, 0.2457, 0.2592, 0.2471, 0.254, 0.2631, 0.2867, 0.2849, 0.298, 0.2901, 0.2839, 0.2839, 0.3324, 0.3519, 0.3768, 0.3957, 0.4162, 0.4509, 0.5072, 0.5112, 0.356, 0.3017, 0.3844, 0.3835, 0.3466, 0.388, 0.4233, 0.4092, 0.4251, 0.3756, 0.4098, 0.4098, 0.3659, 0.3966, 0.4005, 0.4281, 0.4667, 0.4464, 0.4427, 0.4551]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1953440975948239067", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-07T12:59:56+00:00", "symbol": "Harbor Energy", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Harbor Energy could double", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Harbor Energy could double from current levels per presenter at Best Ideas Forum.", "resolved_tickers": ["HBR.L"], "resolution_method": "exchange_ticker", "resolution_reason": "Harbor Energy listed on LSE as HBR.L", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas E&P'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas E&P", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Robert Mullin last week presented Harbor Energy at our Best Ideas Forum. Today this happened: https://t.co/iD0hdmFrfZ\n\n---\n\nThe stock is up 11% today in response to the news. @MRAfunds PLEASE CALL \nYOUR OFFICE. https://t.co/qEuPmCgVgb\n\n---\n\nTo learn why Harbor Energy could double, and hear seven hours of actionable best ideas from 15 other elite investors, please go to our website  to purchase the conference replay. \nYOU DON’T GET WHAT YOU DON’T PAY FOR.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.08183457361518331, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.08183457361518331, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.08267300995775795, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.08574492216720486, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0008384363425746333, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0039103485520215475, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02158273035561331, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02158273035561331, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0137849795513878, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.015183876481328129, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007797750804225512, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006398853874285182, "ret_p1w": 0.019301740403914858, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.019301740403914858, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0007853984120569368, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0054376502330262255, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.020087138815971795, "bench_c_p1w": 0.013864090170888632, "ret_p1m": 0.008505878466383843, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.008505878466383843, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.015203129658542647, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.026687817842184103, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02370900812492649, "bench_c_p1m": 0.035193696308567946, "ret_p3m": 0.02469956839344989, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.02469956839344989, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.046256742923918015, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.017296359422183327, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0709563113173679, "bench_c_p3m": 0.041995927815633216, "ret_p6m": 0.046291154962871284, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.046291154962871284, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.05444262812632639, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.18429337157554548, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10073378308919767, "bench_c_p6m": 0.23058452653841677, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.008505878466383843, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.015203129658542647, "alpha_c_stated": -0.026687817842184103, "price_path": [-0.2185, -0.196, -0.1879, -0.1987, -0.2023, -0.2149, -0.2244, -0.2217, -0.2379, -0.2248, -0.2248, -0.2037, -0.1677, -0.1839, -0.1996, -0.1785, -0.1448, -0.1466, -0.1533, -0.1502, -0.1286, -0.1084, -0.1165, -0.1079, -0.0647, -0.0818, -0.0585, -0.0701, -0.054, -0.0746, -0.0647, -0.1111, -0.1187, -0.098, -0.0899, -0.1192, -0.1228, -0.103, -0.0863, -0.1012, -0.1129, -0.0908, -0.0872, -0.0845, -0.0782, -0.0773, -0.0998, -0.1057, -0.1115, -0.1057, -0.1088, -0.1129, -0.1012, -0.0989, -0.1039, -0.089, -0.0881, -0.1043, -0.1043, -0.1362, -0.1322, -0.112, -0.0818, 0.0, 0.0216, 0.0396, 0.0755, 0.0701, 0.0193, 0.0274, 0.0085, 0.0076, 0.013, 0.0328, 0.0355, 0.0355, 0.0337, 0.0301, 0.0256, 0.0256, 0.0184, 0.0193, 0.0265, 0.0202, 0.0085, -0.0041, 0.0013, -0.0014, -0.0032, -0.0032, -0.0167, -0.0095, -0.0203, -0.0257, -0.0545, -0.0554, -0.0473, -0.0356, -0.0365, -0.0338, -0.0563, -0.0671, -0.0635, -0.0788, -0.0788, -0.0662, -0.0689, -0.0779, -0.0617, -0.0968, -0.0968, -0.1062, -0.1071, -0.1183, -0.1314, -0.1129, -0.1022, -0.0842, -0.0329, -0.0077, -0.0095, -0.0212, -0.0221, 0.0076, 0.0112, 0.0472, 0.0247, 0.0364, 0.0472, 0.031, 0.0445, 0.0616, 0.0517, 0.0535, 0.058, 0.0688, 0.0535, 0.0409, 0.0391, -0.0194, -0.0302, -0.0347, -0.0797, -0.0626, -0.0626, -0.0545, -0.0734, -0.0581, -0.0572, -0.0599, -0.0761, -0.0779, -0.0896, -0.104, -0.0743, -0.0707, -0.0806, -0.0815, -0.0806, -0.0716, -0.0824, -0.1062, -0.1188, -0.1188, -0.1188, -0.1134, -0.1084, -0.1156, -0.1156, -0.1022, -0.1125, -0.1291, -0.1638, -0.1633, -0.1408, -0.1098, -0.0914, -0.0527, -0.0662, -0.0473, -0.0527, -0.0302, -0.0014, -0.0716, -0.0473, -0.0392, -0.0329, 0.0148, 0.058, 0.0463]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1963942833628262644", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-05T12:30:34+00:00", "symbol": "LULU", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Stay short $LULU", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Maintains short on LULU following weak Americas comps, guidance cuts, and valuation downside to $128–154.", "resolved_tickers": ["LULU"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Apparel Retail'", "bench_c_industry": "Apparel Retail", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Stay short $LULU", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$LULU What a bomb! Americas comparable sales DOWN -4% (!). Slashes revenue and EPS guidance. \n\nLooks like women who want 100% genuine petroleum product yoga pants now choose Vuori and Alo instead.\n\nAt 12x new $12.8 EPS guide this is a $154 stock. At 10x, it’s $128. Yikes! 😦 https://t.co/cahV9SJp0G", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.22818827526673102, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.22818827526673102, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.22528357323443116, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.2279755785688864, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0029047020322998662, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00021269669784462764, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0017878608242056782, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0017878608242056782, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.000668717145996256, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0020826696755000818, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002456577970201934, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00387053049970576, "ret_p1w": -0.047258687665960974, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.047258687665960974, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06297172884846691, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06223045531875682, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015713041182505938, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014971767652795842, "ret_p1m": 0.0376638376072036, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0376638376072036, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0028652653332816858, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.015490664691132583, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.040529102940485284, "bench_c_p1m": 0.022173172916071016, "ret_p3m": 0.08641239413760604, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.08641239413760604, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.026857755085806012, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.06811655382965887, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05955463905180003, "bench_c_p3m": 0.018295840307947175, "ret_p6m": 0.049880780482499665, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.049880780482499665, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.0166738424559032, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.06436155363630447, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06655462293840286, "bench_c_p6m": -0.014480773153804805, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0376638376072036, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0028652653332816858, "alpha_c_stated": -0.015490664691132583, "price_path": [0.5405, 0.5035, 0.4722, 0.425, 0.438, 0.4017, 0.3626, 0.3626, 0.3556, 0.3442, 0.3881, 0.3797, 0.3801, 0.4006, 0.4159, 0.4608, 0.4678, 0.476, 0.476, 0.4158, 0.4216, 0.4058, 0.4215, 0.4095, 0.3641, 0.3241, 0.3475, 0.3904, 0.3693, 0.3302, 0.3345, 0.3351, 0.3033, 0.3077, 0.2908, 0.2756, 0.2305, 0.1951, 0.1521, 0.1707, 0.1625, 0.1711, 0.1391, 0.1289, 0.1111, 0.1498, 0.1948, 0.1632, 0.1827, 0.2135, 0.1779, 0.1807, 0.181, 0.2371, 0.2064, 0.207, 0.2251, 0.2222, 0.205, 0.205, 0.1931, 0.1831, 0.2282, 0.0, 0.0018, -0.0126, -0.0232, -0.012, -0.0473, -0.0466, -0.0325, -0.0257, 0.0117, 0.0108, 0.0334, 0.033, 0.0681, 0.0251, 0.0507, 0.0674, 0.0604, 0.0582, 0.062, 0.0464, 0.0377, 0.032, 0.0418, 0.0338, -0.0017, 0.0122, 0.0079, -0.0042, -0.019, -0.0023, 0.0276, 0.081, 0.0625, 0.0671, 0.0618, 0.081, 0.0726, 0.0149, 0.0013, 0.0163, -0.0139, -0.0426, -0.0013, -0.0253, -0.01, 0.0152, 0.012, 0.0185, 0.0111, 0.0172, -0.0217, -0.0228, -0.0104, -0.0185, 0.0023, 0.0111, 0.0579, 0.0843, 0.0843, 0.0976, 0.0871, 0.087, 0.0864, 0.0942, 0.1324, 0.0908, 0.0863, 0.1181, 0.1145, 0.2215, 0.2294, 0.2321, 0.2388, 0.2819, 0.2482, 0.2656, 0.2675, 0.2539, 0.2539, 0.2454, 0.2666, 0.2555, 0.2384, 0.2384, 0.2563, 0.2658, 0.2865, 0.2617, 0.2644, 0.2151, 0.2458, 0.2628, 0.2106, 0.2218, 0.203, 0.203, 0.1249, 0.1313, 0.1601, 0.1387, 0.1489, 0.1108, 0.0748, 0.0282, 0.0399, 0.0672, 0.0225, 0.0608, 0.0136, 0.0301, 0.047, 0.0764, 0.048, 0.0103, 0.0514, 0.0514, 0.0591, 0.0854, 0.0899, 0.1162, 0.0614, 0.0697, 0.0879, 0.1091, 0.1035, 0.0499]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1929897016743616655", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-06-03T13:44:39+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gee, I wonder what gold will do in that scenario? Asking for a friend….", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Rhetorically bullish on gold as rates are pushed lower by policy action.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Seawolfcap @m3_melody Agreed. @crossbordercap has been consistently calling for this. Gee, I wonder what gold will do in that scenario? Asking for a friend….", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @m3_melody This is one of the many reasons they want and need rates down. We just haven't seen them pull out all the stops to try to get rates lower. It's coming.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Seawolfcap", "ret_m1d": 0.008934672664870913, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.008934672664870913, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.014604895165735043, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.014604895165735043, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0056702225008641305, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0056702225008641305, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006441974072654677, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.006441974072654677, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.006710486504437618, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.006710486504437618, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00026851243178294126, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00026851243178294126, "ret_p1w": -0.007121854847529141, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.007121854847529141, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.018848351365641447, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.018848351365641447, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011726496518112306, "bench_c_p1w": 0.011726496518112306, "ret_p1m": 0.0011006323325888356, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0011006323325888356, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04284278734247793, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04284278734247793, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.043943419675066764, "bench_c_p1m": 0.043943419675066764, "ret_p3m": 0.029652661142462566, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.029652661142462566, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.055681648775915304, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.055681648775915304, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08533430991837787, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08533430991837787, "ret_p6m": 0.24023175221042758, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24023175221042758, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.09345980430433132, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.09345980430433132, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.14677194790609627, "bench_c_p6m": 0.14677194790609627, "ret_p1y": 0.3498753206143663, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.3498753206143663, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.08960557672185598, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.08960557672185598, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26026974389251034, "bench_c_p1y": 0.26026974389251034, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0011006323325888356, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04284278734247793, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04284278734247793, "price_path": [-0.1316, -0.1312, -0.1388, -0.1287, -0.1249, -0.1094, -0.109, -0.1042, -0.0937, -0.09, -0.0912, -0.0985, -0.1025, -0.0985, -0.0993, -0.0872, -0.0804, -0.0672, -0.0691, -0.0672, -0.0728, -0.0945, -0.1139, -0.1091, -0.0762, -0.0536, -0.0355, -0.041, -0.036, -0.0047, -0.009, -0.009, 0.0216, 0.0071, -0.017, -0.0027, -0.0135, 0.0005, -0.0092, -0.0166, -0.0371, -0.0354, -0.0066, 0.0213, 0.006, -0.0139, -0.0067, -0.0347, -0.0306, -0.051, -0.0358, -0.0475, -0.0352, -0.0173, -0.01, -0.0188, 0.0027, 0.0027, -0.0143, -0.0165, -0.0107, -0.0172, 0.0089, 0.0, 0.0064, 0.0014, -0.0121, -0.0074, -0.0071, -0.0017, 0.0107, 0.0239, 0.0093, 0.0098, 0.0044, 0.0044, 0.0039, 0.007, -0.0088, -0.0058, -0.0069, -0.0249, -0.0132, -0.0044, 0.0011, -0.0057, -0.0057, -0.005, -0.0154, -0.011, -0.0088, 0.0007, -0.0029, -0.0071, -0.0021, -0.0043, -0.0017, 0.0137, 0.0233, 0.0106, 0.0044, -0.0049, -0.0113, -0.0086, -0.0257, -0.0193, 0.0006, 0.0065, 0.0073, 0.0051, 0.0136, 0.0134, -0.0012, -0.0021, 0.001, -0.0054, -0.0048, -0.0063, -0.0118, -0.0018, -0.0052, 0.0054, 0.003, 0.0103, 0.0123, 0.0198, 0.0297, 0.0297, 0.054, 0.0623, 0.0576, 0.0717, 0.0839, 0.0814, 0.0853, 0.0837, 0.0858, 0.0971, 0.0993, 0.0908, 0.0865, 0.098, 0.117, 0.1216, 0.1114, 0.116, 0.1225, 0.141, 0.1507, 0.1525, 0.1485, 0.1577, 0.1796, 0.1857, 0.2052, 0.183, 0.1949, 0.2239, 0.2327, 0.2541, 0.2834, 0.2592, 0.3051, 0.2212, 0.2213, 0.2262, 0.2221, 0.1881, 0.1796, 0.1751, 0.1982, 0.1917, 0.1938, 0.1729, 0.1865, 0.185, 0.1923, 0.2249, 0.2297, 0.2495, 0.2394, 0.2171, 0.2031, 0.2118, 0.2138, 0.2135, 0.2116, 0.2308, 0.2304, 0.2402]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1961185382130995343", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-28T21:53:26+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold and gold miners. This is an investment, not a trade.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long gold and gold miners as a long-term investment, not a trade; sustained conviction held all year.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The song remains the same. You can’t own enough gold and gold miners. This is an investment, not a trade. I have been saying this all year.  @AAGresearch https://t.co/hKHAxnweZj\n\n---\n\n@TaviCosta https://t.co/Rz77boqEzZ\n\n---\n\n@DonDurrett https://t.co/tjWkpq39Rl", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009557671188478611, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009557671188478611, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01555718518871596, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01555718518871596, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005999514000237349, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005999514000237349, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.04080856468657568, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04080856468657568, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03741355020225212, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03741355020225212, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0033950144843235552, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0033950144843235552, "ret_p1m": 0.10812080151840475, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10812080151840475, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0763867390578683, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0763867390578683, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03173406246053645, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03173406246053645, "ret_p3m": 0.2045146863742524, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2045146863742524, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.14790757700134516, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.14790757700134516, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05660710937290725, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05660710937290725, "ret_p6m": 0.5131260027567235, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5131260027567235, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.44917139972668707, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.44917139972668707, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06395460303003642, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06395460303003642, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.0288, -0.0225, -0.0275, -0.0405, -0.036, -0.0357, -0.0305, -0.0185, -0.0056, -0.0198, -0.0193, -0.0246, -0.0246, -0.025, -0.022, -0.0374, -0.0344, -0.0355, -0.053, -0.0416, -0.0331, -0.0277, -0.0344, -0.0344, -0.0336, -0.0437, -0.0395, -0.0373, -0.0281, -0.0316, -0.0357, -0.0308, -0.0329, -0.0304, -0.0155, -0.0062, -0.0185, -0.0245, -0.0335, -0.0398, -0.0372, -0.0538, -0.0475, -0.0282, -0.0225, -0.0217, -0.0238, -0.0156, -0.0158, -0.0299, -0.0308, -0.0279, -0.034, -0.0335, -0.035, -0.0402, -0.0305, -0.0339, -0.0235, -0.0259, -0.0188, -0.0169, -0.0096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0236, 0.0317, 0.0271, 0.0408, 0.0527, 0.0503, 0.054, 0.0525, 0.0545, 0.0655, 0.0677, 0.0594, 0.0552, 0.0664, 0.0848, 0.0893, 0.0794, 0.0839, 0.0901, 0.1081, 0.1176, 0.1193, 0.1154, 0.1244, 0.1456, 0.1515, 0.1705, 0.1489, 0.1605, 0.1887, 0.1972, 0.2179, 0.2464, 0.223, 0.2675, 0.186, 0.1862, 0.1909, 0.1869, 0.1539, 0.1456, 0.1413, 0.1637, 0.1574, 0.1594, 0.1391, 0.1523, 0.1509, 0.158, 0.1896, 0.1943, 0.2135, 0.2037, 0.182, 0.1685, 0.1769, 0.1789, 0.1785, 0.1767, 0.1953, 0.195, 0.2045, 0.2045, 0.2195, 0.2254, 0.2175, 0.2163, 0.2171, 0.215, 0.2117, 0.218, 0.2232, 0.2363, 0.2432, 0.2444, 0.2447, 0.2554, 0.2531, 0.2545, 0.2835, 0.3005, 0.2951, 0.2951, 0.3102, 0.2532, 0.2541, 0.246, 0.246, 0.2522, 0.2851, 0.299, 0.2866, 0.2937, 0.3031, 0.3275, 0.3256, 0.3391, 0.3309, 0.3245, 0.3245, 0.3746, 0.3947, 0.4204, 0.4399, 0.461, 0.4968, 0.5549, 0.5591, 0.3989, 0.3429, 0.4283, 0.4273, 0.3893, 0.4319, 0.4683, 0.4538, 0.4702, 0.4192, 0.4545, 0.4545, 0.4091, 0.4408, 0.4448, 0.4733, 0.5131]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1961185382130995343", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-08-28T21:53:26+00:00", "symbol": "gold miners", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold and gold miners. This is an investment, not a trade.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long gold and gold miners as a long-term investment, not a trade; sustained conviction held all year.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GDX is the primary gold miners ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The song remains the same. You can’t own enough gold and gold miners. This is an investment, not a trade. I have been saying this all year.  @AAGresearch https://t.co/hKHAxnweZj\n\n---\n\n@TaviCosta https://t.co/Rz77boqEzZ\n\n---\n\n@DonDurrett https://t.co/tjWkpq39Rl", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.029127685826875305, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.029127685826875305, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.035127199827112654, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.035127199827112654, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005999514000237349, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005999514000237349, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.05018206856532159, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05018206856532159, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.046787054080998036, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.046787054080998036, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0033950144843235552, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0033950144843235552, "ret_p1m": 0.19867033530846734, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.19867033530846734, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1669362728479309, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1669362728479309, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03173406246053645, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03173406246053645, "ret_p3m": 0.29096098687153793, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.29096098687153793, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.23435387749863068, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.23435387749863068, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05660710937290725, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05660710937290725, "ret_p6m": 0.7586039372308242, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.7586039372308242, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.6946493342007878, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.6946493342007878, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06395460303003642, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06395460303003642, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1596, -0.1577, -0.1586, -0.1828, -0.1748, -0.1858, -0.1778, -0.1526, -0.1379, -0.1523, -0.1529, -0.161, -0.161, -0.1722, -0.1593, -0.179, -0.1781, -0.167, -0.1969, -0.1759, -0.1762, -0.1664, -0.1624, -0.1624, -0.1583, -0.196, -0.1847, -0.1784, -0.1702, -0.1697, -0.1828, -0.1797, -0.1889, -0.1906, -0.1607, -0.1376, -0.1477, -0.1558, -0.1458, -0.1675, -0.157, -0.1803, -0.1825, -0.1697, -0.1303, -0.1062, -0.0915, -0.0828, -0.0809, -0.0868, -0.0785, -0.0807, -0.0866, -0.0774, -0.0803, -0.104, -0.0768, -0.0614, -0.0473, -0.0461, -0.0249, -0.0268, -0.0291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0258, 0.0321, 0.0222, 0.0502, 0.0644, 0.0583, 0.0844, 0.1043, 0.1042, 0.1157, 0.0926, 0.0869, 0.089, 0.1455, 0.1767, 0.1751, 0.1448, 0.1577, 0.1822, 0.1987, 0.2094, 0.221, 0.2205, 0.2202, 0.2444, 0.2185, 0.253, 0.1969, 0.1996, 0.2565, 0.2419, 0.2897, 0.3367, 0.2463, 0.2721, 0.1523, 0.1548, 0.1681, 0.1524, 0.1067, 0.1243, 0.1251, 0.154, 0.1407, 0.1287, 0.0809, 0.1187, 0.1202, 0.1485, 0.2028, 0.2143, 0.2546, 0.2197, 0.2056, 0.1865, 0.1972, 0.2093, 0.1551, 0.1659, 0.2341, 0.2316, 0.291, 0.291, 0.3176, 0.3111, 0.2919, 0.2832, 0.2884, 0.2827, 0.2531, 0.2971, 0.319, 0.3655, 0.356, 0.3432, 0.3429, 0.3587, 0.3562, 0.3897, 0.4379, 0.4394, 0.4303, 0.4303, 0.4556, 0.3689, 0.3847, 0.3676, 0.3676, 0.367, 0.4104, 0.4692, 0.452, 0.4596, 0.4759, 0.5263, 0.5382, 0.5445, 0.5484, 0.5505, 0.5505, 0.6389, 0.6151, 0.677, 0.7065, 0.7138, 0.7427, 0.7884, 0.7218, 0.502, 0.5019, 0.5661, 0.5738, 0.474, 0.5529, 0.6406, 0.6425, 0.6897, 0.5671, 0.6574, 0.6574, 0.5985, 0.6353, 0.6621, 0.6943, 0.7586]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1952739525920170309", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-05T14:32:37+00:00", "symbol": "UNH", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$UNH is a train wreck and it is risky to sell? You can't make this up", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish UNH (train wreck, mocking the 'risky to sell' framing) and PLTR (expensive valuation).", "resolved_tickers": ["UNH"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLV", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Healthcare Plans'", "bench_c_industry": "Healthcare Plans", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Recent article titles of note:\n\n$UNH is a train wreck and it is risky to sell? You can’t make this up https://t.co/IDMMy4yBoO\n\n---\n\nYou think this fellow understands that trying to catch a falling knife is usually not a good idea? https://t.co/q5RdWNCbDe\n\n---\n\nMany words can be used to describe $PLTR, but cheap is not one of them! https://t.co/fCSj8L0HUp", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03992040437742217, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03992040437742217, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0450162646285035, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.043769389280740034, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00509586025108133, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0038489849033178647, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.020796881291751612, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.020796881291751612, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02845664076085841, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.005777884186135784, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007659759469106797, "bench_c_p1d": -0.015018997105615828, "ret_p1w": 0.042111599784251164, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.042111599784251164, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.01867083917195389, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.051998460789367096, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.023440760612297273, "bench_c_p1w": -0.009886861005115932, "ret_p1m": 0.22661351136879238, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.22661351136879238, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.20150076220549917, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.19333055420853684, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.025112749163293202, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03328295716025553, "ret_p3m": 0.36938190175212604, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.36938190175212604, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.28023574505081195, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.27572405025177305, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0891461567013141, "bench_c_p3m": 0.093657851500353, "ret_p6m": 0.18671008526024724, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.18671008526024724, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.07294882545313608, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.011798450567100938, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.11376125980711116, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1749116346931463, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.22661351136879238, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.20150076220549917, "alpha_c_stated": -0.19333055420853684, "price_path": [0.5252, 0.5058, 0.4983, 0.2318, 0.2185, 0.0853, 0.1548, 0.2497, 0.2722, 0.1986, 0.1736, 0.1693, 0.1693, 0.167, 0.1793, 0.1796, 0.1944, 0.2055, 0.1916, 0.1883, 0.1703, 0.1995, 0.1994, 0.2018, 0.2286, 0.26, 0.2403, 0.2257, 0.2306, 0.2239, 0.2239, 0.2032, 0.1979, 0.2176, 0.2033, 0.2057, 0.2315, 0.2429, 0.2994, 0.2253, 0.2293, 0.2293, 0.21, 0.2259, 0.2068, 0.1933, 0.2116, 0.1975, 0.1622, 0.1653, 0.1477, 0.1261, 0.1241, 0.136, 0.1654, 0.1099, 0.1198, 0.124, 0.0401, 0.0599, -0.0057, -0.0527, -0.0399, 0.0, -0.0208, -0.0252, -0.0004, 0.0055, 0.0421, 0.0829, 0.0816, 0.2112, 0.229, 0.2121, 0.1946, 0.2086, 0.2248, 0.2146, 0.1969, 0.2107, 0.2043, 0.2345, 0.2345, 0.2303, 0.2266, 0.2366, 0.2565, 0.2759, 0.3861, 0.3816, 0.4088, 0.4044, 0.3948, 0.3622, 0.3696, 0.3424, 0.3499, 0.3683, 0.394, 0.4105, 0.3854, 0.3795, 0.3839, 0.3844, 0.3964, 0.4181, 0.4441, 0.4384, 0.458, 0.4831, 0.4741, 0.4213, 0.4379, 0.443, 0.4479, 0.43, 0.4297, 0.4613, 0.4648, 0.4493, 0.4451, 0.4533, 0.4673, 0.4747, 0.4243, 0.3822, 0.3694, 0.3382, 0.3264, 0.314, 0.2892, 0.2998, 0.2893, 0.3128, 0.3594, 0.3331, 0.2904, 0.285, 0.2572, 0.2392, 0.249, 0.2828, 0.2791, 0.3081, 0.3219, 0.3219, 0.3221, 0.2958, 0.3011, 0.362, 0.337, 0.3267, 0.3062, 0.3061, 0.3254, 0.3591, 0.3797, 0.3767, 0.3489, 0.3385, 0.3244, 0.3215, 0.3124, 0.3109, 0.3222, 0.3222, 0.3393, 0.3277, 0.3406, 0.3324, 0.3324, 0.3578, 0.3804, 0.4085, 0.3792, 0.3999, 0.3884, 0.3744, 0.3478, 0.352, 0.3681, 0.336, 0.336, 0.366, 0.4036, 0.4307, 0.4379, 0.4193, 0.141, 0.1867]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1952739525920170309", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-08-05T14:32:37+00:00", "symbol": "PLTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Many words can be used to describe $PLTR, but cheap is not one of them!", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish UNH (train wreck, mocking the 'risky to sell' framing) and PLTR (expensive valuation).", "resolved_tickers": ["PLTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Recent article titles of note:\n\n$UNH is a train wreck and it is risky to sell? You can’t make this up https://t.co/IDMMy4yBoO\n\n---\n\nYou think this fellow understands that trying to catch a falling knife is usually not a good idea? https://t.co/q5RdWNCbDe\n\n---\n\nMany words can be used to describe $PLTR, but cheap is not one of them! https://t.co/fCSj8L0HUp", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.07277659317490859, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.07277659317490859, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.07787245342598992, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.07787245342598992, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00509586025108133, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00509586025108133, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03618623454185732, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03618623454185732, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.028526475072750523, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.028526475072750523, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007659759469106797, "bench_c_p1d": 0.007659759469106797, "ret_p1w": 0.07906733196993199, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07906733196993199, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.05562657135763471, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05562657135763471, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.023440760612297273, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023440760612297273, "ret_p1m": -0.10601956439667637, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10601956439667637, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.13113231355996957, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.13113231355996957, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.025112749163293202, "bench_c_p1m": 0.025112749163293202, "ret_p3m": 0.15698041367547466, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.15698041367547466, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.06783425697416057, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.06783425697416057, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0891461567013141, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0891461567013141, "ret_p6m": -0.09187971245104654, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.09187971245104654, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2056409722581577, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.2056409722581577, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.11376125980711116, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11376125980711116, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10601956439667637, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.13113231355996957, "alpha_c_stated": 0.13113231355996957, "price_path": [-0.3123, -0.323, -0.3163, -0.2607, -0.2487, -0.2606, -0.2525, -0.2709, -0.2752, -0.3041, -0.2942, -0.2883, -0.2883, -0.2879, -0.2857, -0.294, -0.2395, -0.238, -0.2314, -0.2497, -0.308, -0.2629, -0.2378, -0.2335, -0.2128, -0.2198, -0.207, -0.1839, -0.2024, -0.1922, -0.1922, -0.2076, -0.1925, -0.1734, -0.1753, -0.1675, -0.2455, -0.2133, -0.2458, -0.2375, -0.2246, -0.2246, -0.1971, -0.1937, -0.1739, -0.1776, -0.1799, -0.1392, -0.1425, -0.129, -0.1113, -0.114, -0.124, -0.1397, -0.1076, -0.1063, -0.0835, -0.0888, -0.0983, -0.0846, -0.0861, -0.1097, -0.0728, 0.0, 0.0362, 0.0515, 0.079, 0.0543, 0.0791, 0.0641, 0.0447, 0.0225, 0.0044, -0.0896, -0.0996, -0.0986, -0.0839, -0.0929, -0.0716, -0.0955, -0.0874, -0.0956, -0.0956, -0.0934, -0.106, -0.0989, -0.1164, -0.0991, -0.063, -0.0377, -0.0514, -0.0106, -0.0119, -0.0174, -0.0285, 0.0214, 0.0526, 0.035, 0.0536, 0.0363, 0.0338, 0.0248, 0.0323, 0.0528, 0.0674, 0.0795, -0.0012, 0.0361, 0.0514, 0.0594, 0.0704, 0.0125, 0.0227, 0.0373, 0.0366, 0.028, 0.0282, 0.048, 0.0476, 0.0128, 0.0416, 0.0656, 0.0918, 0.0942, 0.1474, 0.1228, 0.157, 0.1957, 0.1008, 0.0844, 0.0103, 0.0269, 0.1174, 0.1021, 0.0629, -0.0065, 0.0043, -0.0117, -0.0343, -0.0453, -0.1011, -0.1063, -0.0636, -0.0561, -0.0433, -0.0433, -0.0278, -0.0334, -0.0149, 0.0162, 0.0268, 0.049, 0.0474, 0.0495, 0.0845, 0.0824, 0.0594, 0.0576, 0.0836, 0.0232, 0.0717, 0.1161, 0.1195, 0.1204, 0.1206, 0.1206, 0.0891, 0.063, 0.0437, 0.0259, 0.0259, -0.0312, 0.0044, 0.0372, 0.0485, 0.0207, 0.0244, 0.0354, 0.0328, 0.0296, 0.0219, -0.0133, -0.0133, -0.0274, -0.0458, -0.0425, -0.0212, -0.0335, -0.0437, -0.0919]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1937700140254716180", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-06-25T02:31:28+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold seen as biggest winner from dollar diversification", "tweet_type": "news_reaction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Author shares Reuters/OMFIF survey showing central banks diversifying away from USD into gold, euro (short-term) and yuan (long-term).", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The song remains the same https://t.co/WxDsI8fAR0\n\n---\n\nExclusive: Central banks eye gold, euro and yuan as dollar dominance wanes | Reuters[https://t.co/s8ylHWoJNv]\nOMFIF did a survey of 75 central banks -- carried out between March and May – which reportedly shows that global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China's yuan \n \n\nCentral banks eye gold, euro and yuan as dollar dominance wanes - Reuters News \n  24 Jun 2025 01:55:03 PM\n•Gold seen as biggest winner from dollar diversification\n•Euro seen top currency to benefit in short term - OMFIF survey\n•Yuan favoured by central bankers over a longer time frame \n•Reuters' sources see euro recovering some lost ground quickly\n•Euro share of reserves likely to rise in next few years - Rogoff \nAdds chart, with no change to text\nLONDON, June 24 (Reuters) - The custodians of trillions of dollars of global central bank reserves are eyeing a move away from the greenback into gold, the euro and China's yuan as the splintering of world trade and geopolitical upheaval spark a rethink of financial flows.\nAccording to a report [https://t.co/oACqItxODf] by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) due to be published later on Tuesday, one in three central banks managing a combined $5 trillion plan to increase exposure to gold over the next one-to-two years after stripping out those planning to decrease, the highest in at least five years.\nThe survey of 75 central banks -- carried out between March and May -- gives a first snapshot of the repercussions of U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 Liberation Day tariffs[https://t.co/1l8hSFqFNb] that sparked market turmoil and a slide in the safe-haven dollar and U.S. Treasuries.\nGold, which central banks have already been adding at a record pace [https://t.co/1l8hSFqFNb], was seen benefiting even further longer term, with a net 40% of central banks planning to increase gold holdings over the next decade.\n\"After years of record-high central bank gold purchases, reserve managers are doubling down on the precious metal,\" OMFIF said. \nThe dollar, the most popular currency in last year's survey, fell to seventh place this year, OMFIF said, with 70% of those surveyed saying the U.S. political environment was discouraging them from investing in the dollar -- more than twice the share a year ago.\nIn currencies, the euro and yuan stand to benefit the most from a diversification away from the dollar. \nA net 16% of central banks surveyed by OMFIF said they plan to increase euro holdings over the next 12 to 24 months, making it the most in-demand currency, up from 7% a year ago, followed by the yuan. \nBut over the next decade, the yuan is more favoured, with a net 30% of central banks expecting to increase holdings and its share of global reserves seen tripling to 6%. \nclick on the news link for further details….\nExclusive: Central banks eye gold, euro and yuan as dollar dominance wanes | Reuters [https://t.co/s8ylHWoJNv]", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, 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{"unit_id": "thread:1964018020449235431", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-05T17:29:20+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "All cheerleading and hand waving, bereft of any substance. Don't confuse meme stock buyers with fundamentals and valuation.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: dismisses bullish thesis as meme-driven hype with no fundamental/valuation support.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN All cheerleading and hand waving, bereft of any substance. Don’t confuse meme stock buyers with fundamentals and valuation.@ericjackson https://t.co/iHFswkcmv0\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/I8SSF9fEfp", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.10375940561281072, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.10375940561281072, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.10666410764511058, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.09380189155498975, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0029047020322998662, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009957514057820971, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.09172934207013728, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.09172934207013728, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.09418592004033921, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.08509103055047051, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002456577970201934, "bench_c_p1d": -0.006638311519666762, "ret_p1w": 0.363909708985211, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.363909708985211, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.3481966678027051, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.35987938241265494, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015713041182505938, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004030326572556087, "ret_p1m": 0.39548866163714624, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.39548866163714624, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.35495955869666096, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.4002784810279204, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.040529102940485284, "bench_c_p1m": -0.004789819390774164, "ret_p3m": 0.04360901619460855, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.04360901619460855, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.015945622857191477, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.062493330787423806, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05955463905180003, "bench_c_p3m": -0.018884314592815254, "ret_p6m": -0.24060148596797337, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24060148596797337, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.30715610890637624, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.30126707411367326, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06655462293840286, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06066558814569989, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.39548866163714624, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.35495955869666096, "alpha_c_stated": -0.4002784810279204, "price_path": [-0.9093, -0.9086, -0.9096, -0.9135, -0.9164, -0.9147, -0.9128, -0.9128, -0.9195, -0.9203, -0.9173, -0.923, -0.9191, -0.9161, -0.9198, -0.915, -0.9149, -0.9083, -0.9083, -0.9059, -0.8899, -0.8892, -0.8672, -0.8829, -0.8645, -0.8436, -0.7759, -0.7519, -0.6617, -0.5173, -0.5669, -0.6556, -0.6361, -0.618, -0.6481, -0.6917, -0.6887, -0.7233, -0.6842, -0.6301, -0.6211, -0.7143, -0.7218, -0.7068, -0.6526, -0.6286, -0.6361, -0.5429, -0.5233, -0.4316, -0.4556, -0.5158, -0.4586, -0.2466, -0.3173, -0.2932, -0.3955, -0.3579, -0.3308, -0.3308, -0.2346, -0.2286, -0.1038, 0.0, -0.0917, -0.0812, -0.1188, 0.582, 0.3639, 0.4278, 0.3414, 0.5353, 0.4947, 0.4391, 0.2602, 0.0662, 0.2376, 0.3669, 0.3248, 0.2331, 0.1985, 0.212, 0.2045, 0.2195, 0.3955, 0.397, 0.2767, 0.2241, 0.1383, 0.0932, 0.1489, 0.1098, 0.0692, 0.0767, 0.1083, 0.0466, 0.0256, 0.0571, 0.1985, 0.2271, 0.1985, 0.1504, 0.1038, 0.1684, 0.1414, 0.0406, 0.0872, -0.0135, -0.0135, 0.1985, 0.2752, 0.409, 0.2872, 0.2211, 0.1789, 0.1308, 0.006, -0.0737, 0.015, 0.1564, 0.1639, 0.1699, 0.1699, 0.1579, 0.0737, 0.0511, 0.0436, 0.1398, 0.0752, 0.0602, 0.1143, 0.0526, 0.0602, -0.0135, -0.0271, 0.012, -0.0797, -0.0556, -0.0436, -0.0346, -0.0571, -0.0556, -0.0556, -0.0962, -0.1233, -0.1218, -0.1233, -0.1233, -0.0872, -0.0496, 0.0421, -0.0797, -0.0331, 0.0962, 0.0556, 0.018, -0.0015, -0.0526, 0.003, 0.003, -0.0391, -0.0256, -0.0346, -0.0962, -0.1173, -0.1263, -0.1338, -0.1609, -0.2256, -0.2752, -0.2286, -0.2481, -0.2932, -0.2662, -0.2571, -0.2947, -0.2842, -0.3414, -0.3316, -0.3316, -0.3489, -0.3038, -0.3008, -0.2481, -0.2812, -0.2316, -0.2511, -0.1865, -0.185, -0.2406]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1914348483286302962", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-21T16:00:19+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$RSP vs $GLD post has collapsed 27% since the 2/4/25 post. The song remains the same", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "RSP/GLD ratio continues lower; bearish equities vs gold — short RSP, long GLD.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$RSP vs $GLD post has collapsed 27% since the 2/4/25 post. The song remains the same. “We got a situation here.” @LukeGromen @cvpayne @DougKass @biancoresearch @TommyThornton @lisaabramowicz1 @MariaBartiromo https://t.co/sn8bQsCSES", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Alternatively, the chart of $RSP vs $GLD has been moving from the upper left to the lower right. I expect this to continue. Again, money illusion! https://t.co/RlUaPR0orM", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030007292153088172, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030007292153088172, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05439026239926903, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05439026239926903, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.024382970246180857, "bench_c_m1d": 0.024382970246180857, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.014195668551963636, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.014195668551963636, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.040213428294155196, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.040213428294155196, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.02601775974219156, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02601775974219156, "ret_p1w": -0.020659682148768677, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.020659682148768677, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.09260246439596409, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.09260246439596409, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.07194278224719541, "bench_c_p1w": 0.07194278224719541, "ret_p1m": -0.03805573657273442, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03805573657273442, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.19172968296879012, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.19172968296879012, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1536739463960557, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1536739463960557, "ret_p3m": -0.025349345964168934, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.025349345964168934, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2511153050049415, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2511153050049415, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.22576595904077257, "bench_c_p3m": 0.22576595904077257, "ret_p6m": 0.2065972082880092, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2065972082880092, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.08948192260571819, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.08948192260571819, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.2960791308937274, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2960791308937274, "ret_p1y": 0.37688140885828836, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.37688140885828836, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.0462993428591878, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.0462993428591878, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.33058206599910056, "bench_c_p1y": 0.33058206599910056, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03805573657273442, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.19172968296879012, "alpha_c_stated": -0.19172968296879012, "price_path": [-0.1938, -0.1949, -0.1899, -0.1984, -0.1914, -0.1945, -0.1823, -0.1807, -0.1763, -0.1682, -0.1631, -0.1653, -0.1638, -0.1496, -0.1527, -0.1518, -0.1435, -0.1562, -0.1562, -0.1422, -0.1418, -0.1413, -0.1421, -0.1375, -0.1488, -0.1475, -0.1605, -0.1658, -0.1548, -0.1474, -0.1457, -0.15, -0.1496, -0.157, -0.1471, -0.1434, -0.1282, -0.1279, -0.1231, -0.1129, -0.1093, -0.1104, -0.1176, -0.1215, -0.1176, -0.1183, -0.1065, -0.0999, -0.087, -0.0888, -0.0869, -0.0924, -0.1137, -0.1327, -0.128, -0.0957, -0.0736, -0.056, -0.0613, -0.0564, -0.0257, -0.03, -0.03, 0.0, -0.0142, -0.0378, -0.0238, -0.0344, -0.0207, -0.0302, -0.0375, -0.0574, -0.0558, -0.0276, -0.0003, -0.0153, -0.0347, -0.0277, -0.0551, -0.0511, -0.0711, -0.0562, -0.0677, -0.0556, -0.0381, -0.031, -0.0395, -0.0185, -0.0185, -0.0351, -0.0373, -0.0316, -0.038, -0.0124, -0.0212, -0.0149, -0.0198, -0.033, -0.0284, -0.0281, -0.0229, -0.0107, 0.0022, -0.0121, -0.0116, -0.0169, -0.0169, -0.0173, -0.0143, -0.0298, -0.0268, -0.0279, -0.0455, -0.0341, -0.0255, -0.0201, -0.0268, -0.0268, -0.026, -0.0362, -0.0319, -0.0298, -0.0204, -0.024, -0.0281, -0.0232, -0.0253, -0.0228, -0.0078, 0.0016, -0.0108, -0.0169, -0.026, -0.0323, -0.0296, -0.0464, -0.04, -0.0205, -0.0148, -0.014, -0.0161, -0.0078, -0.008, -0.0223, -0.0232, -0.0202, -0.0264, -0.0259, -0.0274, -0.0327, -0.0229, -0.0263, -0.0159, -0.0183, -0.0111, -0.0091, -0.0018, 0.0079, 0.0079, 0.0317, 0.0398, 0.0352, 0.049, 0.0609, 0.0585, 0.0623, 0.0607, 0.0628, 0.0739, 0.076, 0.0677, 0.0635, 0.0747, 0.0933, 0.0978, 0.0879, 0.0924, 0.0987, 0.1168, 0.1264, 0.1281, 0.1242, 0.1332, 0.1546, 0.1606, 0.1797, 0.1579, 0.1696, 0.198, 0.2066]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1964822859382940144", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-07T22:47:28+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN stock should be $1.50 on a like for like basis. And this of course ignores the fact that $UBER has great balance sheet and is profitable, while $OPEN has a lousy balance sheet and is loss making. All $OPEN shareholders ignore this warning their peril.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: on EV/Rev vs UBER, implies 4x overvaluation with fair value ~$1.50; weak balance sheet and loss-making compound the bear case.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "So comparing $OPEN with $UBER on a simple EV/Revs basis, $OPEN is over 4x as expensive. Put another way, $OPEN stock should be $1.50 on a like for like basis. And this of course ignores the fact that $UBER has great balance sheet and is profitable, while $OPEN has a lousy balance sheet and is loss making. Again @ericjackson are you dishonest or financially illiterate? \nAll $OPEN shareholders ignore this warning their peril.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.10099340022632397, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10099340022632397, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.10344395820976915, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09431072704026411, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0024505579834451785, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006682673186059862, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011589432467463467, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011589432467463467, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00927745251552925, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012066651902792436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0023119799519342177, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047721943532896827, "ret_p1w": 0.5720198585309404, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.5720198585309404, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.5534017050180586, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.5624733978236554, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018618153512881763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009546460707285043, "ret_p1m": 0.5380794735970369, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.5393449009372934, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03413099875479508, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0012654273402564753, "ret_p3m": 0.254966882711795, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.254966882711795, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.19723595958997908, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.268978034031231, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.057730923121815936, "bench_c_p3m": -0.014011151319435977, "ret_p6m": -0.17715234742039776, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17715234742039776, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23171547375600654, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.23955761813812093, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05456312633560878, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06240527071772317, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_stated": -0.5393449009372934, "price_path": [-0.8993, -0.9005, -0.9048, -0.9079, -0.9061, -0.904, -0.904, -0.9114, -0.9123, -0.9089, -0.9152, -0.9109, -0.9076, -0.9118, -0.9065, -0.9063, -0.899, -0.899, -0.8964, -0.8788, -0.878, -0.8538, -0.871, -0.8508, -0.8278, -0.7533, -0.7268, -0.6275, -0.4685, -0.5232, -0.6209, -0.5993, -0.5795, -0.6126, -0.6606, -0.6573, -0.6954, -0.6523, -0.5927, -0.5828, -0.6854, -0.6937, -0.6772, -0.6175, -0.5911, -0.5993, -0.4967, -0.4752, -0.3742, -0.4007, -0.4669, -0.404, -0.1705, -0.2483, -0.2219, -0.3344, -0.293, -0.2632, -0.2632, -0.1573, -0.1507, -0.0132, 0.101, 0.0, 0.0116, -0.0298, 0.7417, 0.5017, 0.572, 0.4768, 0.6904, 0.6457, 0.5844, 0.3874, 0.1738, 0.3626, 0.505, 0.4586, 0.3576, 0.3195, 0.3344, 0.3262, 0.3427, 0.5364, 0.5381, 0.4056, 0.3477, 0.2533, 0.2036, 0.2649, 0.2219, 0.1772, 0.1854, 0.2202, 0.1523, 0.1291, 0.1639, 0.3195, 0.351, 0.3195, 0.2666, 0.2152, 0.2864, 0.2566, 0.1457, 0.197, 0.0861, 0.0861, 0.3195, 0.404, 0.5513, 0.4172, 0.3444, 0.298, 0.245, 0.1076, 0.0199, 0.1175, 0.2732, 0.2815, 0.2881, 0.2881, 0.2748, 0.1821, 0.1573, 0.149, 0.255, 0.1838, 0.1672, 0.2268, 0.1589, 0.1672, 0.0861, 0.0712, 0.1142, 0.0132, 0.0397, 0.053, 0.0629, 0.0381, 0.0397, 0.0397, -0.005, -0.0348, -0.0331, -0.0348, -0.0348, 0.005, 0.0464, 0.1474, 0.0132, 0.0646, 0.207, 0.1623, 0.1209, 0.0993, 0.043, 0.1043, 0.1043, 0.0579, 0.0728, 0.0629, -0.005, -0.0281, -0.0381, -0.0464, -0.0762, -0.1474, -0.202, -0.1507, -0.1722, -0.2219, -0.1921, -0.1821, -0.2235, -0.2119, -0.2748, -0.2641, -0.2641, -0.2831, -0.2334, -0.2301, -0.1722, -0.2086, -0.154, -0.1755, -0.1043, -0.1026, -0.1639, -0.1772]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1908860779295588602", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-06T12:34:09+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "THIS IS A TRULY OUTSTANDING INTERVIEW. ACTIONABLE IDEAS. … Why One Analyst Sees a Massive Tesla Crash Ahead", "tweet_type": "news_reaction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author endorses Gordon Johnson's bearish TSLA thesis as actionable, implying a crash ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THIS IS A TRULY OUTSTANDING INTERVIEW. ACTIONABLE IDEAS.\n@GordonJohnson19 https://t.co/ez1LpRjoUu\n\n---\n\nWhy One Analyst Sees a Massive Tesla Crash Ahead - Gordon Johnson Interview\nhttps://t.co/NQ1hjwOcRx   $TSLA $TAN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.026319171701966848, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.026319171701966848, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.02453480495612803, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.014361057860497795, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0017843667458388168, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011958113841469054, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.048994783337158565, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.048994783337158565, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.033332029020260556, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.025244574214344895, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01566275431689801, "bench_c_p1d": -0.02375020912281367, "ret_p1w": 0.08170094460076349, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08170094460076349, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.012824277769866166, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.028332205349633544, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.06887666683089733, "bench_c_p1w": 0.05336873925112995, "ret_p1m": 0.1802906855323012, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1802906855323012, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.07239589040161842, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08661868002382933, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.10789479513068279, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09367200550847188, "ret_p3m": 0.351751104543671, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.351751104543671, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1082666477450478, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12448909952915965, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.24348445679862318, "bench_c_p3m": 0.22726200501451133, "ret_p6m": 0.9062969438009671, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.9062969438009671, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.5779299608809316, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.5744413690282466, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.3283669829200355, "bench_c_p6m": 0.33185557477272054, "ret_p1y": 0.6543787702615225, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.6543787702615225, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.3372181651671866, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.41864615023355856, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.31716060509433586, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2357326200279639, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1802906855323012, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.07239589040161842, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08661868002382933, "price_path": [0.6929, 0.6929, 0.6921, 0.7288, 0.699, 0.8356, 0.7738, 0.8282, 0.8282, 0.8178, 0.7794, 0.7677, 0.7428, 0.7024, 0.7064, 0.6679, 0.7158, 0.7343, 0.6446, 0.6812, 0.621, 0.6045, 0.5501, 0.5034, 0.4081, 0.4425, 0.5257, 0.5253, 0.5253, 0.5179, 0.5455, 0.5191, 0.448, 0.4168, 0.298, 0.2465, 0.2086, 0.2559, 0.2202, 0.1661, 0.1964, 0.1293, 0.1259, -0.0478, -0.0116, 0.0634, 0.0317, 0.0715, 0.0202, -0.0342, 0.011, 0.0127, 0.0661, 0.1933, 0.2351, 0.1662, 0.1708, 0.1297, 0.1109, 0.1508, 0.2121, 0.1457, 0.0263, 0.0, -0.049, 0.1668, 0.0819, 0.0815, 0.0817, 0.0892, 0.0354, 0.0346, 0.0346, -0.0248, 0.0201, 0.0748, 0.1124, 0.2214, 0.2254, 0.2518, 0.2095, 0.2025, 0.2311, 0.2013, 0.1803, 0.184, 0.2209, 0.2785, 0.3647, 0.432, 0.4903, 0.4695, 0.5002, 0.4664, 0.4738, 0.4344, 0.4619, 0.4546, 0.4546, 0.5555, 0.5299, 0.5364, 0.4851, 0.4689, 0.4757, 0.4233, 0.2204, 0.2651, 0.3227, 0.3978, 0.3992, 0.3679, 0.3944, 0.4108, 0.356, 0.3805, 0.3805, 0.3809, 0.4946, 0.4594, 0.404, 0.3965, 0.3872, 0.3617, 0.289, 0.353, 0.3518, 0.3518, 0.26, 0.2766, 0.2683, 0.3283, 0.3439, 0.3584, 0.3322, 0.3788, 0.3692, 0.413, 0.4081, 0.4236, 0.4255, 0.3087, 0.3548, 0.3956, 0.3768, 0.3676, 0.3214, 0.2972, 0.3256, 0.3233, 0.3713, 0.3814, 0.413, 0.4533, 0.461, 0.4548, 0.4385, 0.4169, 0.4367, 0.4116, 0.3884, 0.3722, 0.4575, 0.4857, 0.5074, 0.4986, 0.483, 0.4311, 0.4311, 0.4118, 0.4321, 0.4511, 0.5039, 0.4848, 0.4873, 0.4908, 0.5809, 0.6972, 0.7576, 0.8073, 0.8255, 0.7868, 0.8264, 0.8612, 0.8254, 0.898, 0.8149, 0.8878, 0.8998, 0.9063]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1912101463951618468", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-15T11:11:28+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Continue to be long #gold", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Long gold (GLD); avoid bonds (TLT).", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Continue to be long #gold and avoid bonds. $GLD $TLT https://t.co/P32VvCUbmF", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.00520514406381456, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.00520514406381456, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.00801403354625152, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.00801403354625152, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0028088894824369603, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0028088894824369603, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0325408102664011, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0325408102664011, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05476866096168698, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05476866096168698, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.022227850695285878, "bench_c_p1d": -0.022227850695285878, "ret_p1w": 0.04476454639972416, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04476454639972416, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06403487754773884, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06403487754773884, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019270331148014685, "bench_c_p1w": -0.019270331148014685, "ret_p1m": -0.015514793257191406, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.015514793257191406, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10848192022422276, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10848192022422276, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09296712696703135, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09296712696703135, "ret_p3m": 0.03814902248542307, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03814902248542307, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.12526610727230758, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12526610727230758, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.16341512975773065, "bench_c_p3m": 0.16341512975773065, "ret_p6m": 0.2502518279238197, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2502518279238197, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.008972590234376243, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.008972590234376243, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.25922441815819597, "bench_c_p6m": 0.25922441815819597, "ret_p1y": 0.44203776419641816, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.44203776419641816, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.2081540237613846, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.2081540237613846, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.23388374043503357, "bench_c_p1y": 0.23388374043503357, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.015514793257191406, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.10848192022422276, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10848192022422276, "price_path": [-0.1584, -0.1629, -0.1629, -0.1499, -0.1456, -0.1468, -0.1415, -0.1504, -0.1431, -0.1463, -0.1334, -0.1317, -0.1271, -0.1185, -0.113, -0.1154, -0.1138, -0.0988, -0.1021, -0.1011, -0.0922, -0.1057, -0.1057, -0.0909, -0.0904, -0.09, -0.0908, -0.0859, -0.0979, -0.0965, -0.1103, -0.1159, -0.1042, -0.0964, -0.0946, -0.0992, -0.0987, -0.1066, -0.0961, -0.0922, -0.0761, -0.0757, -0.0707, -0.0598, -0.056, -0.0572, -0.0648, -0.0689, -0.0648, -0.0656, -0.0531, -0.0461, -0.0324, -0.0343, -0.0323, -0.0381, -0.0606, -0.0808, -0.0758, -0.0416, -0.0182, 0.0005, -0.0052, 0.0, 0.0325, 0.028, 0.028, 0.0598, 0.0448, 0.0197, 0.0346, 0.0233, 0.0379, 0.0278, 0.0201, -0.0011, 0.0007, 0.0306, 0.0594, 0.0436, 0.023, 0.0304, 0.0014, 0.0056, -0.0155, 0.0002, -0.0119, 0.0008, 0.0195, 0.027, 0.0179, 0.0402, 0.0402, 0.0226, 0.0202, 0.0263, 0.0195, 0.0466, 0.0374, 0.0441, 0.0388, 0.0249, 0.0297, 0.03, 0.0356, 0.0484, 0.0622, 0.047, 0.0476, 0.0419, 0.0419, 0.0415, 0.0447, 0.0282, 0.0314, 0.0302, 0.0116, 0.0237, 0.0328, 0.0385, 0.0314, 0.0314, 0.0322, 0.0214, 0.026, 0.0283, 0.0381, 0.0344, 0.0301, 0.0352, 0.0329, 0.0356, 0.0515, 0.0615, 0.0484, 0.0419, 0.0323, 0.0256, 0.0284, 0.0107, 0.0174, 0.038, 0.0441, 0.0449, 0.0427, 0.0515, 0.0513, 0.0362, 0.0352, 0.0384, 0.0318, 0.0324, 0.0308, 0.0252, 0.0355, 0.0319, 0.043, 0.0405, 0.048, 0.0501, 0.0579, 0.0681, 0.0681, 0.0934, 0.102, 0.0971, 0.1117, 0.1244, 0.1218, 0.1259, 0.1242, 0.1264, 0.1381, 0.1404, 0.1316, 0.1271, 0.139, 0.1587, 0.1635, 0.1529, 0.1577, 0.1644, 0.1836, 0.1937, 0.1956, 0.1915, 0.201, 0.2237, 0.23, 0.2503]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1912101463951618468", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-04-15T11:11:28+00:00", "symbol": "TLT", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "avoid bonds", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Long gold (GLD); avoid bonds (TLT).", "resolved_tickers": ["TLT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Continue to be long #gold and avoid bonds. $GLD $TLT https://t.co/P32VvCUbmF", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0035297761952413076, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0035297761952413076, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.006338665677678268, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.006338665677678268, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0028088894824369603, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0028088894824369603, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005579722180660829, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.005579722180660829, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.027807572875946707, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.027807572875946707, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.022227850695285878, "bench_c_p1d": -0.022227850695285878, "ret_p1w": -0.015258238195835272, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.015258238195835272, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0040120929521794135, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0040120929521794135, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019270331148014685, "bench_c_p1w": -0.019270331148014685, "ret_p1m": -0.0248924627125523, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0248924627125523, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11785958967958365, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11785958967958365, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09296712696703135, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09296712696703135, "ret_p3m": -0.012199470972825255, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.012199470972825255, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1756146007305559, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1756146007305559, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.16341512975773065, "bench_c_p3m": 0.16341512975773065, "ret_p6m": 0.03909411074064262, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.03909411074064262, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.22013030741755335, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.22013030741755335, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.25922441815819597, "bench_c_p6m": 0.25922441815819597, "ret_p1y": 0.03311585658522609, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.03311585658522609, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.20076788384980748, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.20076788384980748, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.23388374043503357, "bench_c_p1y": 0.23388374043503357, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0248924627125523, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11785958967958365, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11785958967958365, "price_path": [-0.019, -0.0173, -0.0173, -0.0085, -0.0137, -0.0214, -0.017, -0.0054, -0.0061, -0.0081, -0.0044, -0.0109, -0.0029, 0.0002, 0.0167, 0.0163, 0.0097, 0.0066, 0.0002, -0.0134, 0.003, 0.0083, 0.0083, -0.0035, -0.0023, 0.0014, 0.0135, 0.0165, 0.034, 0.0401, 0.0328, 0.0454, 0.0503, 0.0374, 0.0291, 0.0257, 0.0224, 0.0331, 0.0257, 0.0196, 0.0285, 0.0231, 0.0282, 0.0292, 0.0345, 0.0352, 0.0291, 0.0185, 0.0184, 0.0117, 0.0088, 0.0227, 0.0328, 0.0418, 0.0411, 0.0459, 0.0573, 0.0254, 0.006, 0.012, -0.0159, -0.0106, -0.0035, 0.0, 0.0056, -0.0033, -0.0033, -0.0207, -0.0153, -0.0057, 0.0048, 0.0122, 0.0186, 0.0271, 0.0188, 0.0136, 0.0027, -0.0029, 0.0004, 0.0046, -0.0066, -0.0051, -0.0144, -0.0184, -0.0249, -0.0163, -0.0137, -0.0165, -0.0236, -0.0403, -0.0353, -0.0337, -0.0337, -0.0202, -0.0244, -0.0154, -0.0139, -0.0231, -0.0248, -0.009, -0.0083, -0.0209, -0.0199, -0.0148, -0.0119, -0.0, -0.0097, -0.0197, -0.0077, -0.006, -0.006, -0.0078, -0.0046, 0.0026, 0.0039, 0.0089, 0.0025, 0.0123, 0.0149, 0.0084, 0.0014, 0.0014, -0.0082, -0.0094, 0.0009, 0.0016, -0.0122, -0.0143, -0.0212, -0.0198, -0.02, -0.0185, -0.0098, -0.0038, -0.0093, -0.011, -0.0048, -0.0113, 0.0054, 0.0002, 0.0008, 0.015, 0.0178, 0.0209, 0.015, 0.0133, 0.0089, 0.0101, 0.005, 0.0133, 0.0058, -0.0014, -0.0043, 0.0015, 0.0037, -0.0013, 0.0061, 0.0033, 0.0027, 0.0015, 0.0081, 0.0009, 0.0009, -0.0065, 0.0044, 0.0121, 0.0275, 0.0412, 0.0353, 0.0412, 0.0481, 0.0436, 0.046, 0.0483, 0.0456, 0.0348, 0.0328, 0.0291, 0.0363, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0314, 0.0399, 0.0369, 0.0396, 0.0426, 0.0406, 0.0323, 0.0383, 0.0391]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1917400094044832103", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-30T02:06:20+00:00", "symbol": "NVDA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Does this imply some issues with Nvidia's massive accounts receivable balance? I think it's on the order of $19 billion. After all those A/R's would be related to \"older generation products\" would they not. Buckle up buttercup.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish NVDA: SMCI weakness raises questions about NVDA's ~$19B accounts receivable tied to older-gen products.", "resolved_tickers": ["NVDA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Inventory reserves for older generation products.  I thought there was insatiable demand. \n\nDoes this imply some issues with Nvidia's massive accounts receivable balance? I think it's on the order of $19 billion.  After all those A/R's would be related to \"older generation products\" would they not. \nTechie guys never seem to focus on balance sheet issues for some reason.  It's always about sales and margins until its not. \n\nBuckle up buttercup. Don't worry \"quantum computing\" is right around the corner.  \n$NVDA H/t DF", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "BREAKING: Super Micro Computer stock, $SMCI, falls nearly -20% after issuing weak preliminary financials. https://t.co/xGL75tCFmD", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0009181151290698075, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0009181151290698075, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0013148993796704422, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.005603884928674918, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0003967842506006347, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004685769799605111, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.024697079525506593, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.024697079525506593, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.01761021145465147, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.019869316701671025, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0070868680708551235, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0048277628238355685, "ret_p1w": 0.07473382797963746, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07473382797963746, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.06281400496215528, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.033366913296073664, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011919823017482178, "bench_c_p1w": 0.041366914683563794, "ret_p1m": 0.27791048247725114, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.27791048247725114, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.21387541991983317, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12266624904216816, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.06403506255741798, "bench_c_p1m": 0.15524423343508298, "ret_p3m": 0.6228635007114709, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.6228635007114709, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.4708762701327207, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.24360368281752454, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.1519872305787502, "bench_c_p3m": 0.37925981789394636, "ret_p6m": 0.6726306856816828, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.6726306856816828, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.4542986729162797, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.040673127106843676, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.21833201276540315, "bench_c_p6m": 0.6319575585748392, "ret_p1y": 0.8520706024852589, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.8520706024852589, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.5567974915884695, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.3516604091172373, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2952731108967894, "bench_c_p1y": 1.2037310116024962, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.27791048247725114, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.21387541991983317, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12266624904216816, "price_path": [0.1023, 0.071, 0.0892, 0.146, 0.1813, 0.192, 0.2262, 0.2191, 0.2039, 0.242, 0.2747, 0.2747, 0.2797, 0.2782, 0.2862, 0.2341, 0.196, 0.1625, 0.2052, 0.103, 0.1468, 0.0471, 0.0648, 0.0768, 0.0151, 0.0345, -0.0179, -0.0016, 0.0626, 0.0611, 0.1171, 0.0974, 0.0598, 0.079, 0.0882, 0.0806, 0.1147, 0.1081, 0.0444, 0.023, 0.0069, -0.005, 0.0113, 0.0138, -0.0654, -0.1341, -0.1036, -0.1159, 0.0497, -0.0124, 0.0185, 0.0164, 0.0301, -0.0407, -0.0682, -0.0682, -0.1103, -0.0921, -0.057, -0.0229, 0.0192, -0.0017, 0.0009, 0.0, 0.0247, 0.0512, 0.045, 0.0424, 0.0747, 0.0776, 0.071, 0.1293, 0.1929, 0.2426, 0.2379, 0.2431, 0.2447, 0.2337, 0.2101, 0.2195, 0.2054, 0.2054, 0.244, 0.2377, 0.2779, 0.2406, 0.2613, 0.2965, 0.303, 0.2853, 0.3011, 0.3095, 0.3217, 0.3114, 0.3313, 0.3035, 0.3285, 0.3233, 0.3358, 0.3358, 0.3208, 0.3237, 0.358, 0.4168, 0.4233, 0.4484, 0.4506, 0.4076, 0.4438, 0.463, 0.463, 0.4529, 0.4691, 0.4955, 0.5067, 0.5142, 0.5064, 0.5673, 0.5735, 0.5884, 0.583, 0.5736, 0.5336, 0.568, 0.5952, 0.593, 0.6229, 0.6115, 0.646, 0.6331, 0.595, 0.6527, 0.6367, 0.6474, 0.6598, 0.6775, 0.6716, 0.6817, 0.6673, 0.6713, 0.6568, 0.6712, 0.6127, 0.6105, 0.6066, 0.6342, 0.651, 0.669, 0.6674, 0.6543, 0.5993, 0.5993, 0.568, 0.5666, 0.5761, 0.5335, 0.5454, 0.5679, 0.6282, 0.6268, 0.6328, 0.6321, 0.6058, 0.5636, 0.6183, 0.6222, 0.6859, 0.6384, 0.625, 0.6316, 0.6362, 0.6698, 0.7132, 0.7193, 0.7344, 0.7228, 0.7037, 0.6991, 0.7364, 0.7682, 0.6818, 0.7292, 0.6531, 0.6512, 0.6694, 0.6824, 0.677, 0.6634, 0.6554, 0.6726]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1964726242227490826", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-07T16:23:33+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Business model of flipping houses does not work. This turd $OPEN is a sinker, not a floater.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: house-flipping business model is broken; stock will keep declining.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@domino3404 Won’t matter. Business model of flipping houses does not work. This turd $OPEN is a sinker, not a floater.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 https://t.co/MLUiU0FjF8", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "domino3404", "ret_m1d": 0.10099340022632397, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10099340022632397, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.10344395820976915, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09431072704026411, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0024505579834451785, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006682673186059862, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011589432467463467, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011589432467463467, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00927745251552925, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012066651902792436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0023119799519342177, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047721943532896827, "ret_p1w": 0.5720198585309404, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.5720198585309404, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.5534017050180586, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.5624733978236554, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018618153512881763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009546460707285043, "ret_p1m": 0.5380794735970369, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.5393449009372934, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03413099875479508, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0012654273402564753, "ret_p3m": 0.254966882711795, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.254966882711795, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.19723595958997908, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.268978034031231, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.057730923121815936, "bench_c_p3m": -0.014011151319435977, "ret_p6m": -0.17715234742039776, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17715234742039776, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23171547375600654, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.23955761813812093, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05456312633560878, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06240527071772317, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_stated": -0.5393449009372934, "price_path": [-0.8993, -0.9005, -0.9048, -0.9079, -0.9061, -0.904, -0.904, -0.9114, -0.9123, -0.9089, -0.9152, -0.9109, -0.9076, -0.9118, -0.9065, -0.9063, -0.899, -0.899, -0.8964, -0.8788, -0.878, -0.8538, -0.871, -0.8508, -0.8278, -0.7533, -0.7268, -0.6275, -0.4685, -0.5232, -0.6209, -0.5993, -0.5795, -0.6126, -0.6606, -0.6573, -0.6954, -0.6523, -0.5927, -0.5828, -0.6854, -0.6937, -0.6772, -0.6175, -0.5911, -0.5993, -0.4967, -0.4752, -0.3742, -0.4007, -0.4669, -0.404, -0.1705, -0.2483, -0.2219, -0.3344, -0.293, -0.2632, -0.2632, -0.1573, -0.1507, -0.0132, 0.101, 0.0, 0.0116, -0.0298, 0.7417, 0.5017, 0.572, 0.4768, 0.6904, 0.6457, 0.5844, 0.3874, 0.1738, 0.3626, 0.505, 0.4586, 0.3576, 0.3195, 0.3344, 0.3262, 0.3427, 0.5364, 0.5381, 0.4056, 0.3477, 0.2533, 0.2036, 0.2649, 0.2219, 0.1772, 0.1854, 0.2202, 0.1523, 0.1291, 0.1639, 0.3195, 0.351, 0.3195, 0.2666, 0.2152, 0.2864, 0.2566, 0.1457, 0.197, 0.0861, 0.0861, 0.3195, 0.404, 0.5513, 0.4172, 0.3444, 0.298, 0.245, 0.1076, 0.0199, 0.1175, 0.2732, 0.2815, 0.2881, 0.2881, 0.2748, 0.1821, 0.1573, 0.149, 0.255, 0.1838, 0.1672, 0.2268, 0.1589, 0.1672, 0.0861, 0.0712, 0.1142, 0.0132, 0.0397, 0.053, 0.0629, 0.0381, 0.0397, 0.0397, -0.005, -0.0348, -0.0331, -0.0348, -0.0348, 0.005, 0.0464, 0.1474, 0.0132, 0.0646, 0.207, 0.1623, 0.1209, 0.0993, 0.043, 0.1043, 0.1043, 0.0579, 0.0728, 0.0629, -0.005, -0.0281, -0.0381, -0.0464, -0.0762, -0.1474, -0.202, -0.1507, -0.1722, -0.2219, -0.1921, -0.1821, -0.2235, -0.2119, -0.2748, -0.2641, -0.2641, -0.2831, -0.2334, -0.2301, -0.1722, -0.2086, -0.154, -0.1755, -0.1043, -0.1026, -0.1639, -0.1772]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1966570156198379629", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-12T18:30:37+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "22x EV/sales for a low margin business in a super competitive industry. There is no way that the numbers work. None.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: 22x EV/Sales is unjustifiable for a low-margin, highly competitive business.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@ohginvesting @ericjackson 22x EV/sales for a low margin business in a super competitive industry. There is no way that the numbers work. None.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "This is what retail investors believed could happen with the right leadership. \n\nThere is a huge gap in the real estate market that is costly and inefficient. I spent a considerable amount of time researching $OPEN after reading through @ericjackson’s tweets months ago. Any", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "ohginvesting", "ret_m1d": 0.1598677851959458, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.1598677851959458, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.15953313667358104, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.15538148836068322, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0003346485223647555, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004486296835262582, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04685779548343194, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04685779548343194, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04153402092595648, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04803858627594737, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005323774557475458, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0011807907925154293, "ret_p1w": 0.05512679347556371, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05512679347556371, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.042760005177692184, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06693321050325274, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012366788297871523, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011806417027689031, "ret_p1m": -0.1984564249682249, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1984564249682249, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20981645158240425, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17182694625400097, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011360026614179342, "bench_c_p1m": -0.026629478714223942, "ret_p3m": -0.228224891342109, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.228224891342109, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.277001438873276, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1937438806701718, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.048776547531167, "bench_c_p3m": -0.03448101067193721, "ret_p6m": -0.43991178669995445, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.43991178669995445, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.47755979240127644, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4737099663327855, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.037648005701321985, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03379817963283105, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1984564249682249, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20981645158240425, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17182694625400097, "price_path": [-0.9375, -0.9361, -0.9361, -0.941, -0.9416, -0.9394, -0.9436, -0.9407, -0.9385, -0.9412, -0.9377, -0.9376, -0.9327, -0.9327, -0.931, -0.9193, -0.9187, -0.9026, -0.9141, -0.9007, -0.8853, -0.8357, -0.8181, -0.7519, -0.6461, -0.6825, -0.7475, -0.7332, -0.72, -0.742, -0.774, -0.7718, -0.7971, -0.7685, -0.7288, -0.7222, -0.7905, -0.796, -0.785, -0.7453, -0.7277, -0.7332, -0.6648, -0.6505, -0.5832, -0.6009, -0.645, -0.6031, -0.4476, -0.4994, -0.4818, -0.5568, -0.5292, -0.5094, -0.5094, -0.4388, -0.4344, -0.3429, -0.2668, -0.3341, -0.3264, -0.3539, 0.1599, 0.0, 0.0469, -0.0165, 0.1257, 0.0959, 0.0551, -0.0761, -0.2183, -0.0926, 0.0022, -0.0287, -0.0959, -0.1213, -0.1114, -0.1169, -0.1058, 0.0232, 0.0243, -0.0639, -0.1025, -0.1654, -0.1985, -0.1577, -0.1863, -0.2161, -0.2106, -0.1874, -0.2326, -0.2481, -0.2249, -0.1213, -0.1003, -0.1213, -0.1566, -0.1907, -0.1433, -0.1632, -0.237, -0.2029, -0.2767, -0.2767, -0.1213, -0.065, 0.0331, -0.0562, -0.1047, -0.1356, -0.1709, -0.2624, -0.3208, -0.2558, -0.1521, -0.1466, -0.1422, -0.1422, -0.151, -0.2128, -0.2293, -0.2348, -0.1643, -0.2117, -0.2227, -0.183, -0.2282, -0.2227, -0.2767, -0.2867, -0.258, -0.3252, -0.3076, -0.2988, -0.2922, -0.3087, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3374, -0.3572, -0.3561, -0.3572, -0.3572, -0.3308, -0.3032, -0.2359, -0.3252, -0.2911, -0.1963, -0.226, -0.2536, -0.2679, -0.3054, -0.2646, -0.2646, -0.2955, -0.2856, -0.2922, -0.3374, -0.3528, -0.3594, -0.3649, -0.3848, -0.4322, -0.4686, -0.4344, -0.4487, -0.4818, -0.462, -0.4553, -0.4829, -0.4752, -0.5171, -0.5099, -0.5099, -0.5226, -0.4895, -0.4873, -0.4487, -0.473, -0.4366, -0.4509, -0.4035, -0.4024, -0.4432, -0.452, -0.462, -0.4289, -0.4487, -0.4399]}
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{"unit_id": "quote:1941134941208920426", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-07-04T14:00:09+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will not survive this. Game over.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Elimination of ZEV regulatory credits is existential for Tesla; decisive bearish call.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA will not survive this. Game over. @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @TommyThornton", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” will eliminate Tesla’s US regulatory credits, also known as Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits.\n\nUnder the current system, automakers failing to meet zero-emission vehicle quotas must either pay a fine or purchase credits from companies like Tesla, https://t.co/9LR4YAE0xL", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.07283800600218493, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07283800600218493, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.065330085266611, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05997159097288729, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.007507920735573936, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01286641502929764, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.013165935514200422, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.013165935514200422, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.013713571383673795, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.016554091002521587, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.000547635869473373, "bench_c_p1d": -0.003388155488321165, "ret_p1w": 0.07811114943313968, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07811114943313968, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07145719465306799, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06048289770405102, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006653954780071691, "bench_c_p1w": 0.017628251729088662, "ret_p1m": 0.05028236598127922, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.05028236598127922, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.03853732647056418, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04794703751269713, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011745039510715038, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0023353284685820874, "ret_p3m": 0.483295898410125, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.483295898410125, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.4021022192495789, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.3852086526846077, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0811936791605461, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0980872457255173, "ret_p6m": 0.5459957436938749, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.5459957436938749, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.4327806777021619, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.43966570660870685, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.11321506599171305, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10633003708516808, "ret_p1y": 0.27757363972314275, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.27757363972314275, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.0831344703559127, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.21563181213006244, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.19443916936723005, "bench_c_p1y": 0.06194182759308031, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.05028236598127922, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.03853732647056418, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04794703751269713, "price_path": [-0.074, -0.1413, -0.1416, -0.1415, -0.1355, -0.1782, -0.1788, -0.1788, -0.226, -0.1904, -0.147, -0.1171, -0.0306, -0.0274, -0.0065, -0.0401, -0.0457, -0.0229, -0.0465, -0.0632, -0.0603, -0.031, 0.0147, 0.0831, 0.1365, 0.1828, 0.1663, 0.1907, 0.1638, 0.1697, 0.1384, 0.1602, 0.1545, 0.1545, 0.2346, 0.2142, 0.2194, 0.1787, 0.1659, 0.1712, 0.1297, -0.0314, 0.0041, 0.0498, 0.1094, 0.1105, 0.0856, 0.1067, 0.1197, 0.0762, 0.0956, 0.0956, 0.096, 0.1862, 0.1583, 0.1143, 0.1083, 0.101, 0.0807, 0.023, 0.0739, 0.0728, 0.0728, 0.0, 0.0132, 0.0066, 0.0542, 0.0666, 0.0781, 0.0573, 0.0943, 0.0867, 0.1215, 0.1175, 0.1299, 0.1314, 0.0386, 0.0753, 0.1077, 0.0927, 0.0854, 0.0488, 0.0296, 0.0521, 0.0503, 0.0884, 0.0964, 0.1215, 0.1534, 0.1596, 0.1546, 0.1417, 0.1246, 0.1402, 0.1203, 0.1019, 0.089, 0.1567, 0.1792, 0.1964, 0.1894, 0.177, 0.1358, 0.1358, 0.1205, 0.1366, 0.1517, 0.1936, 0.1785, 0.1804, 0.1832, 0.2547, 0.347, 0.395, 0.4344, 0.4488, 0.4181, 0.4495, 0.4772, 0.4488, 0.5064, 0.4404, 0.4983, 0.5078, 0.513, 0.5631, 0.4833, 0.4623, 0.542, 0.4734, 0.4924, 0.4817, 0.4067, 0.483, 0.4603, 0.4804, 0.4586, 0.4946, 0.5222, 0.5057, 0.4934, 0.5275, 0.4755, 0.5392, 0.5668, 0.5701, 0.4972, 0.5532, 0.5934, 0.5114, 0.572, 0.517, 0.4613, 0.5147, 0.4956, 0.4649, 0.3676, 0.3756, 0.3912, 0.3651, 0.3744, 0.3446, 0.3305, 0.4213, 0.4268, 0.4512, 0.4512, 0.4635, 0.4634, 0.4603, 0.5198, 0.5463, 0.5479, 0.4955, 0.5145, 0.5359, 0.5203, 0.5614, 0.617, 0.6666, 0.5896, 0.6445, 0.6371, 0.6627, 0.6519, 0.6514, 0.6514, 0.6166, 0.5637, 0.546]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1956324652252324229", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-08-15T11:58:38+00:00", "symbol": "PLTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": true, "quote": "Totally vacuous, bereft of any serious analysis of valuation. \"I am doubling down on the stock upgrade, raising my rating to \"Strong Buy.\" ARGGHHH", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Mocking a vacuous Strong Buy upgrade on PLTR; implied bearish on valuation grounds.", "resolved_tickers": ["PLTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The leading candidate for ridiculous article of the day. Totally vacuous, bereft of any serious analysis of valuation. “I am doubling down on the stock upgrade, raising my rating to \"Strong Buy.\" ARGGHHH. $PLTR https://t.co/IMYEjqnPd7", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02173057596266581, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02173057596266581, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01938388396589441, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01938388396589441, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0023466919967713995, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0023466919967713995, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.017723087554892936, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.017723087554892936, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.017505470906998832, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.017505470906998832, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0002176166478941033, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0002176166478941033, "ret_p1w": -0.10402434309564546, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.10402434309564546, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.10693056595350725, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10693056595350725, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0029062228578617955, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0029062228578617955, "ret_p1m": -0.03363995889075311, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03363995889075311, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06079072876838898, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06079072876838898, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.027150769877635872, "bench_c_p1m": 0.027150769877635872, "ret_p3m": 0.03951007547747998, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.03951007547747998, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.0255069502198908, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0255069502198908, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.06501702569737078, "bench_c_p3m": 0.06501702569737078, "ret_p6m": -0.1933735669747334, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1933735669747334, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2780591478433432, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.2780591478433432, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08468558086860978, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08468558086860978, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03363995889075311, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06079072876838898, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06079072876838898, "price_path": [-0.2911, -0.3194, -0.3098, -0.304, -0.304, -0.3036, -0.3015, -0.3096, -0.2562, -0.2547, -0.2483, -0.2662, -0.3232, -0.2791, -0.2546, -0.2504, -0.2302, -0.2369, -0.2245, -0.2018, -0.22, -0.21, -0.21, -0.225, -0.2103, -0.1916, -0.1934, -0.1858, -0.2621, -0.2306, -0.2624, -0.2543, -0.2416, -0.2416, -0.2148, -0.2114, -0.1921, -0.1957, -0.1979, -0.1582, -0.1614, -0.1482, -0.1308, -0.1335, -0.1433, -0.1586, -0.1272, -0.1259, -0.1037, -0.1089, -0.1181, -0.1048, -0.1062, -0.1293, -0.0932, -0.022, 0.0134, 0.0284, 0.0553, 0.0311, 0.0553, 0.0406, 0.0217, 0.0, -0.0177, -0.1096, -0.1194, -0.1185, -0.104, -0.1129, -0.092, -0.1154, -0.1075, -0.1155, -0.1155, -0.1133, -0.1257, -0.1187, -0.1358, -0.1189, -0.0836, -0.0589, -0.0723, -0.0324, -0.0336, -0.039, -0.0499, -0.0011, 0.0295, 0.0122, 0.0304, 0.0135, 0.011, 0.0023, 0.0095, 0.0296, 0.0439, 0.0558, -0.0231, 0.0133, 0.0282, 0.0361, 0.0468, -0.0098, 0.0002, 0.0145, 0.0138, 0.0054, 0.0055, 0.0249, 0.0245, -0.0095, 0.0187, 0.0421, 0.0678, 0.0702, 0.1221, 0.0981, 0.1315, 0.1694, 0.0766, 0.0606, -0.012, 0.0043, 0.0928, 0.0778, 0.0395, -0.0284, -0.0178, -0.0334, -0.0555, -0.0663, -0.1209, -0.126, -0.0842, -0.0769, -0.0643, -0.0643, -0.0492, -0.0546, -0.0366, -0.0062, 0.0042, 0.0259, 0.0244, 0.0264, 0.0606, 0.0585, 0.0361, 0.0343, 0.0597, 0.0007, 0.0481, 0.0915, 0.0949, 0.0957, 0.096, 0.096, 0.0651, 0.0396, 0.0207, 0.0033, 0.0033, -0.0525, -0.0177, 0.0143, 0.0255, -0.0017, 0.0018, 0.0126, 0.0101, 0.0069, -0.0006, -0.0351, -0.0351, -0.0488, -0.0668, -0.0636, -0.0427, -0.0547, -0.0647, -0.1119, -0.1429, -0.1726, -0.166, -0.1089, -0.2124, -0.2662, -0.2329, -0.1934]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1914769927703056511", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-22T19:55:00+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "cash flow will be poor and the CEO will no doubt try to pump the stock with dreams. $TSLA, despite what others may say, is a car company selling on 9x falling revenues. Caveat Emptor.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: poor cash flow, falling revenues, CEO hype; trades at unjustified 9x multiple for a declining car company.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA I have no idea what number they will fabricate for EPS after the close. I also have no idea what fairy tales they will make up about robots and FSD. I also have no idea what the stock will do in reaction. What I am certain of is that cash flow will be poor and the CEO will no doubt try to pump the stock with dreams. $TSLA, despite what others may say, is a car company selling on 9x falling revenues. Caveat Emptor. $TSLA @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @RealJimChanos", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.04399714740091465, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04399714740091465, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.01863914604552963, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.013324581499532084, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.025358001355385018, "bench_c_m1d": -0.030672565901382565, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0536622440095611, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0536622440095611, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.038166881090738514, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0313157841919236, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015495362918822586, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0223464598176375, "ret_p1w": 0.2271714807802867, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.2271714807802867, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.17582967196704447, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.15782249944790605, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.05134180881324224, "bench_c_p1w": 0.06934898133238065, "ret_p1m": 0.40614360381856374, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.40614360381856374, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.3006718562465118, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.2692183419261338, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.10547174757205191, "bench_c_p1m": 0.13692526189242993, "ret_p3m": 0.38525861329367084, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.38525861329367084, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.19145041940107355, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.18928540470858413, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.1938081938925973, "bench_c_p3m": 0.1959732085850867, "ret_p6m": 0.8285918042791807, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.8285918042791807, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.5597705771615735, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.5629932998542166, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.26882122711760714, "bench_c_p6m": 0.265598504424964, "ret_p1y": 0.45236791757060746, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.45236791757060746, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.14804525377545685, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.23157847096366768, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.3043226637951506, "bench_c_p1y": 0.22078944660693978, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.40614360381856374, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.3006718562465118, "alpha_c_stated": -0.2692183419261338, "price_path": [0.7329, 0.7085, 0.6689, 0.6729, 0.6351, 0.6821, 0.7002, 0.6123, 0.6481, 0.5891, 0.573, 0.5196, 0.4738, 0.3804, 0.4141, 0.4957, 0.4953, 0.4953, 0.488, 0.5151, 0.4893, 0.4195, 0.389, 0.2724, 0.222, 0.1848, 0.2312, 0.1962, 0.1432, 0.1728, 0.1071, 0.1038, -0.0665, -0.0311, 0.0425, 0.0114, 0.0505, 0.0002, -0.0532, -0.0089, -0.0072, 0.0451, 0.1699, 0.2108, 0.1433, 0.1477, 0.1075, 0.089, 0.1281, 0.1882, 0.1232, 0.0061, -0.0197, -0.0677, 0.1438, 0.0606, 0.0603, 0.0604, 0.0678, 0.015, 0.0143, 0.0143, -0.044, 0.0, 0.0537, 0.0905, 0.1974, 0.2013, 0.2272, 0.1857, 0.1788, 0.2069, 0.1777, 0.1571, 0.1607, 0.1969, 0.2534, 0.3379, 0.4038, 0.461, 0.4406, 0.4707, 0.4375, 0.4448, 0.4061, 0.4331, 0.426, 0.426, 0.5249, 0.4998, 0.5062, 0.4559, 0.4401, 0.4467, 0.3953, 0.1964, 0.2402, 0.2967, 0.3703, 0.3717, 0.341, 0.367, 0.3831, 0.3294, 0.3533, 0.3533, 0.3538, 0.4652, 0.4307, 0.3764, 0.369, 0.36, 0.3349, 0.2636, 0.3264, 0.3252, 0.3252, 0.2352, 0.2515, 0.2434, 0.3021, 0.3174, 0.3317, 0.306, 0.3517, 0.3422, 0.3853, 0.3804, 0.3956, 0.3975, 0.2829, 0.3282, 0.3682, 0.3498, 0.3407, 0.2954, 0.2717, 0.2996, 0.2973, 0.3443, 0.3542, 0.3853, 0.4247, 0.4323, 0.4261, 0.4102, 0.3891, 0.4084, 0.3838, 0.3611, 0.3452, 0.4288, 0.4565, 0.4778, 0.4691, 0.4539, 0.403, 0.403, 0.384, 0.4039, 0.4226, 0.4743, 0.4556, 0.458, 0.4615, 0.5498, 0.6638, 0.7231, 0.7717, 0.7896, 0.7517, 0.7904, 0.8246, 0.7895, 0.8607, 0.7792, 0.8507, 0.8625, 0.8688, 0.9307, 0.8322, 0.8062, 0.9047, 0.8199, 0.8435, 0.8302, 0.7376, 0.8317, 0.8038, 0.8286]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1963957808224768043", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-05T13:30:04+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$5B for $600mm in assets. Want to play $OPEN as a meme speculation? Be my guest. But don't embarrass yourself by trying to make a fundamental case.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: $5B valuation for $600mm in assets is indefensible fundamentally; any bull case is pure meme speculation.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN $5B for $600mm in assets. Want to play $OPEN as a meme speculation? Be my guest. But don’t embarrass yourself by trying to make a fundamental case. @ericjackson @DavidDTawil https://t.co/BWy7D4uBvS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.10375940561281072, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.10375940561281072, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.10666410764511058, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.09380189155498975, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0029047020322998662, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009957514057820971, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.09172934207013728, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.09172934207013728, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.09418592004033921, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.08509103055047051, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002456577970201934, "bench_c_p1d": -0.006638311519666762, "ret_p1w": 0.363909708985211, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.363909708985211, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.3481966678027051, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.35987938241265494, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015713041182505938, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004030326572556087, "ret_p1m": 0.39548866163714624, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.39548866163714624, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.35495955869666096, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.4002784810279204, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.040529102940485284, "bench_c_p1m": -0.004789819390774164, "ret_p3m": 0.04360901619460855, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.04360901619460855, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.015945622857191477, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.062493330787423806, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05955463905180003, "bench_c_p3m": -0.018884314592815254, "ret_p6m": -0.24060148596797337, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24060148596797337, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.30715610890637624, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.30126707411367326, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06655462293840286, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06066558814569989, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.39548866163714624, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.35495955869666096, "alpha_c_stated": -0.4002784810279204, "price_path": [-0.9093, -0.9086, -0.9096, -0.9135, -0.9164, -0.9147, -0.9128, -0.9128, -0.9195, -0.9203, -0.9173, -0.923, -0.9191, -0.9161, -0.9198, -0.915, -0.9149, -0.9083, -0.9083, -0.9059, -0.8899, -0.8892, -0.8672, -0.8829, -0.8645, -0.8436, -0.7759, -0.7519, -0.6617, -0.5173, -0.5669, -0.6556, -0.6361, -0.618, -0.6481, -0.6917, -0.6887, -0.7233, -0.6842, -0.6301, -0.6211, -0.7143, -0.7218, -0.7068, -0.6526, -0.6286, -0.6361, -0.5429, -0.5233, -0.4316, -0.4556, -0.5158, -0.4586, -0.2466, -0.3173, -0.2932, -0.3955, -0.3579, -0.3308, -0.3308, -0.2346, -0.2286, -0.1038, 0.0, -0.0917, -0.0812, -0.1188, 0.582, 0.3639, 0.4278, 0.3414, 0.5353, 0.4947, 0.4391, 0.2602, 0.0662, 0.2376, 0.3669, 0.3248, 0.2331, 0.1985, 0.212, 0.2045, 0.2195, 0.3955, 0.397, 0.2767, 0.2241, 0.1383, 0.0932, 0.1489, 0.1098, 0.0692, 0.0767, 0.1083, 0.0466, 0.0256, 0.0571, 0.1985, 0.2271, 0.1985, 0.1504, 0.1038, 0.1684, 0.1414, 0.0406, 0.0872, -0.0135, -0.0135, 0.1985, 0.2752, 0.409, 0.2872, 0.2211, 0.1789, 0.1308, 0.006, -0.0737, 0.015, 0.1564, 0.1639, 0.1699, 0.1699, 0.1579, 0.0737, 0.0511, 0.0436, 0.1398, 0.0752, 0.0602, 0.1143, 0.0526, 0.0602, -0.0135, -0.0271, 0.012, -0.0797, -0.0556, -0.0436, -0.0346, -0.0571, -0.0556, -0.0556, -0.0962, -0.1233, -0.1218, -0.1233, -0.1233, -0.0872, -0.0496, 0.0421, -0.0797, -0.0331, 0.0962, 0.0556, 0.018, -0.0015, -0.0526, 0.003, 0.003, -0.0391, -0.0256, -0.0346, -0.0962, -0.1173, -0.1263, -0.1338, -0.1609, -0.2256, -0.2752, -0.2286, -0.2481, -0.2932, -0.2662, -0.2571, -0.2947, -0.2842, -0.3414, -0.3316, -0.3316, -0.3489, -0.3038, -0.3008, -0.2481, -0.2812, -0.2316, -0.2511, -0.1865, -0.185, -0.2406]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1964462691202060773", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-06T22:56:18+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Broken company with bad model that can't be fixed. The numbers just don't work.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish Opendoor: fundamentally broken model with unfixable unit economics.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@RandianCapital Broken company with bad model that can’t be fixed. The numbers just don’t work.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 The Wall Street Journal disagrees:\n\nMany online commenters zeroed in on Wheeler’s decision to shed Opendoor shares for less than $1 as part of an insider-selling plan, and grumbled this was evidence she didn’t believe in the company’s future.\n\nBy mid-August, Opendoor’s board", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "RandianCapital", "ret_m1d": 0.10099340022632397, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10099340022632397, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.10344395820976915, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09431072704026411, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0024505579834451785, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006682673186059862, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011589432467463467, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011589432467463467, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00927745251552925, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012066651902792436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0023119799519342177, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047721943532896827, "ret_p1w": 0.5720198585309404, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.5720198585309404, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.5534017050180586, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.5624733978236554, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018618153512881763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009546460707285043, "ret_p1m": 0.5380794735970369, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.5393449009372934, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03413099875479508, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0012654273402564753, "ret_p3m": 0.254966882711795, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.254966882711795, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.19723595958997908, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.268978034031231, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.057730923121815936, "bench_c_p3m": -0.014011151319435977, "ret_p6m": -0.17715234742039776, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17715234742039776, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23171547375600654, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.23955761813812093, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05456312633560878, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06240527071772317, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.5380794735970369, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5039484748422418, "alpha_c_stated": -0.5393449009372934, "price_path": [-0.8993, -0.9005, -0.9048, -0.9079, -0.9061, -0.904, -0.904, -0.9114, -0.9123, -0.9089, -0.9152, -0.9109, -0.9076, -0.9118, -0.9065, -0.9063, -0.899, -0.899, -0.8964, -0.8788, -0.878, -0.8538, -0.871, -0.8508, -0.8278, -0.7533, -0.7268, -0.6275, -0.4685, -0.5232, -0.6209, -0.5993, -0.5795, -0.6126, -0.6606, -0.6573, -0.6954, -0.6523, -0.5927, -0.5828, -0.6854, -0.6937, -0.6772, -0.6175, -0.5911, -0.5993, -0.4967, -0.4752, -0.3742, -0.4007, -0.4669, -0.404, -0.1705, -0.2483, -0.2219, -0.3344, -0.293, -0.2632, -0.2632, -0.1573, -0.1507, -0.0132, 0.101, 0.0, 0.0116, -0.0298, 0.7417, 0.5017, 0.572, 0.4768, 0.6904, 0.6457, 0.5844, 0.3874, 0.1738, 0.3626, 0.505, 0.4586, 0.3576, 0.3195, 0.3344, 0.3262, 0.3427, 0.5364, 0.5381, 0.4056, 0.3477, 0.2533, 0.2036, 0.2649, 0.2219, 0.1772, 0.1854, 0.2202, 0.1523, 0.1291, 0.1639, 0.3195, 0.351, 0.3195, 0.2666, 0.2152, 0.2864, 0.2566, 0.1457, 0.197, 0.0861, 0.0861, 0.3195, 0.404, 0.5513, 0.4172, 0.3444, 0.298, 0.245, 0.1076, 0.0199, 0.1175, 0.2732, 0.2815, 0.2881, 0.2881, 0.2748, 0.1821, 0.1573, 0.149, 0.255, 0.1838, 0.1672, 0.2268, 0.1589, 0.1672, 0.0861, 0.0712, 0.1142, 0.0132, 0.0397, 0.053, 0.0629, 0.0381, 0.0397, 0.0397, -0.005, -0.0348, -0.0331, -0.0348, -0.0348, 0.005, 0.0464, 0.1474, 0.0132, 0.0646, 0.207, 0.1623, 0.1209, 0.0993, 0.043, 0.1043, 0.1043, 0.0579, 0.0728, 0.0629, -0.005, -0.0281, -0.0381, -0.0464, -0.0762, -0.1474, -0.202, -0.1507, -0.1722, -0.2219, -0.1921, -0.1821, -0.2235, -0.2119, -0.2748, -0.2641, -0.2641, -0.2831, -0.2334, -0.2301, -0.1722, -0.2086, -0.154, -0.1755, -0.1043, -0.1026, -0.1639, -0.1772]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1962503400064487794", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-01T13:10:46+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the bull market in precious metals was over. Where are they now?", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Dismisses April bears who called the precious-metals bull over; implicitly endorses continued bull trend in gold, silver, and miners.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "In April many of the loudest talking heads declared that the bull market in precious metals was over. Where are they now? You know who I am talking about. Hint: Few. Another hint: Danish is not good for you. $GLD $SLV $GDX #gold #silver https://t.co/YuGPcbhMiE\n\n---\n\n@DonDurrett and @TaviCosta have been on fire!!! https://t.co/NycUPUElfl\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/VoVMEmK1PC", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0230964989657354, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0230964989657354, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.030562073440616677, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.030562073440616677, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.007465574474881276, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007465574474881276, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.007831992196408066, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007831992196408066, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.002412446033400295, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.002412446033400295, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005419546163007771, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005419546163007771, "ret_p1w": 0.026014316520686753, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.026014316520686753, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.010302172309424984, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.010302172309424984, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01571214421126177, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01571214421126177, "ret_p1m": 0.09349182340914508, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.09349182340914508, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.04658468705169039, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04658468705169039, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04690713635745469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04690713635745469, "ret_p3m": 0.19131425794875656, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19131425794875656, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12100849199076213, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.12100849199076213, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07030576595799443, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07030576595799443, "ret_p6m": 0.45403734375311955, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.45403734375311955, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.36523790300856884, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.36523790300856884, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0887994407445507, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0887994407445507, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.09349182340914508, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.04658468705169039, "alpha_c_stated": 0.04658468705169039, "price_path": [-0.0499, -0.0627, -0.0583, -0.058, -0.0529, -0.0411, -0.0286, -0.0424, -0.0419, -0.0471, -0.0471, -0.0475, -0.0446, -0.0596, -0.0567, -0.0578, -0.0748, -0.0638, -0.0554, -0.0502, -0.0567, -0.0567, -0.056, -0.0658, -0.0616, -0.0596, -0.0505, -0.054, -0.0579, -0.0532, -0.0553, -0.0528, -0.0383, -0.0291, -0.0412, -0.0471, -0.0559, -0.062, -0.0594, -0.0756, -0.0695, -0.0506, -0.0451, -0.0443, -0.0463, -0.0383, -0.0385, -0.0523, -0.0532, -0.0503, -0.0563, -0.0558, -0.0572, -0.0624, -0.0529, -0.0562, -0.0461, -0.0484, -0.0415, -0.0396, -0.0324, -0.0231, -0.0231, 0.0, 0.0078, 0.0034, 0.0168, 0.0283, 0.026, 0.0297, 0.0282, 0.0302, 0.0409, 0.043, 0.035, 0.0308, 0.0417, 0.0598, 0.0641, 0.0545, 0.0588, 0.065, 0.0825, 0.0918, 0.0935, 0.0897, 0.0984, 0.1191, 0.1249, 0.1435, 0.1224, 0.1337, 0.1612, 0.1695, 0.1898, 0.2176, 0.1947, 0.2382, 0.1586, 0.1588, 0.1634, 0.1595, 0.1272, 0.1191, 0.1149, 0.1368, 0.1306, 0.1327, 0.1128, 0.1257, 0.1243, 0.1312, 0.1621, 0.1667, 0.1855, 0.1759, 0.1547, 0.1415, 0.1498, 0.1516, 0.1513, 0.1495, 0.1677, 0.1674, 0.1767, 0.1767, 0.1913, 0.1971, 0.1893, 0.1882, 0.189, 0.1869, 0.1838, 0.1898, 0.1949, 0.2078, 0.2145, 0.2156, 0.2159, 0.2264, 0.2241, 0.2255, 0.2538, 0.2704, 0.2652, 0.2652, 0.28, 0.2242, 0.2251, 0.2172, 0.2172, 0.2233, 0.2554, 0.269, 0.2569, 0.2638, 0.273, 0.2968, 0.295, 0.3082, 0.3002, 0.2939, 0.2939, 0.3429, 0.3624, 0.3876, 0.4067, 0.4273, 0.4623, 0.519, 0.5231, 0.3666, 0.3119, 0.3953, 0.3943, 0.3572, 0.3989, 0.4344, 0.4202, 0.4363, 0.3864, 0.4209, 0.4209, 0.3766, 0.4075, 0.4115, 0.4393, 0.4782, 0.4577, 0.454]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1962503400064487794", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-09-01T13:10:46+00:00", "symbol": "SLV", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$GLD $SLV $GDX #gold #silver", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Dismisses April bears who called the precious-metals bull over; implicitly endorses continued bull trend in gold, silver, and miners.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "In April many of the loudest talking heads declared that the bull market in precious metals was over. Where are they now? You know who I am talking about. Hint: Few. Another hint: Danish is not good for you. $GLD $SLV $GDX #gold #silver https://t.co/YuGPcbhMiE\n\n---\n\n@DonDurrett and @TaviCosta have been on fire!!! https://t.co/NycUPUElfl\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/VoVMEmK1PC", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02584126136579501, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02584126136579501, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.033306835840676285, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.033306835840676285, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.007465574474881276, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007465574474881276, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005114363900540653, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.005114363900540653, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00030518226246711855, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00030518226246711855, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005419546163007771, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005419546163007771, "ret_p1w": 0.0008075041201809352, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0008075041201809352, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.014904640091080834, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.014904640091080834, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01571214421126177, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01571214421126177, "ret_p1m": 0.1550470547765861, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1550470547765861, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1081399184191314, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1081399184191314, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04690713635745469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04690713635745469, "ret_p3m": 0.3784655984145646, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3784655984145646, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3081598324565702, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3081598324565702, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07030576595799443, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07030576595799443, "ret_p6m": 1.1545086844685866, "ret_signed_p6m": 1.1545086844685866, "alpha_spy_p6m": 1.0657092437240359, "alpha_c_p6m": 1.0657092437240359, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0887994407445507, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0887994407445507, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1550470547765861, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1081399184191314, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1081399184191314, "price_path": [-0.1265, -0.1201, -0.1012, -0.1055, -0.1131, -0.1101, -0.1125, -0.1109, -0.0918, -0.1044, -0.1044, -0.1192, -0.1128, -0.1222, -0.1114, -0.1026, -0.1219, -0.1168, -0.119, -0.1052, -0.098, -0.098, -0.1001, -0.1039, -0.1117, -0.0915, -0.0571, -0.0678, -0.0778, -0.0738, -0.0673, -0.0684, -0.0485, -0.0385, -0.0393, -0.0447, -0.067, -0.0676, -0.067, -0.098, -0.1031, -0.0958, -0.0853, -0.0754, -0.0754, -0.0643, -0.0611, -0.0799, -0.0738, -0.0579, -0.0713, -0.0713, -0.07, -0.0883, -0.0732, -0.0684, -0.0487, -0.0573, -0.0573, -0.0581, -0.0439, -0.0258, -0.0258, 0.0, 0.0051, -0.0059, 0.0016, 0.0097, 0.0008, 0.007, 0.0172, 0.032, 0.0433, 0.039, 0.0172, 0.0226, 0.0509, 0.0778, 0.0756, 0.0719, 0.1044, 0.1268, 0.144, 0.1405, 0.155, 0.1448, 0.1715, 0.186, 0.168, 0.1995, 0.2035, 0.2229, 0.2721, 0.2598, 0.3009, 0.3236, 0.2649, 0.2845, 0.1787, 0.1812, 0.1892, 0.1841, 0.1413, 0.1494, 0.1637, 0.1935, 0.1847, 0.1779, 0.1505, 0.175, 0.1723, 0.1822, 0.2326, 0.2503, 0.3007, 0.2764, 0.2371, 0.224, 0.2409, 0.2503, 0.2323, 0.2194, 0.2552, 0.2563, 0.3028, 0.3028, 0.3785, 0.4137, 0.4301, 0.4285, 0.3933, 0.4253, 0.4188, 0.4851, 0.5093, 0.551, 0.5101, 0.5642, 0.554, 0.6221, 0.5968, 0.6401, 0.6816, 0.7454, 0.7556, 0.7556, 0.9144, 0.7769, 0.8568, 0.7341, 0.7341, 0.7699, 0.8595, 0.9841, 0.9101, 0.8764, 0.9483, 1.0789, 1.1157, 1.2762, 1.2428, 1.1809, 1.1809, 1.2985, 1.26, 1.3454, 1.5009, 1.6471, 1.7346, 1.8425, 1.8417, 1.0307, 0.9499, 1.0716, 1.1314, 0.7952, 0.8894, 1.0468, 0.976, 1.0608, 0.8231, 0.8767, 0.8767, 0.7865, 0.8867, 0.9114, 1.0624, 1.1688, 1.1287, 1.1545]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1962503400064487794", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2025-09-01T13:10:46+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$GLD $SLV $GDX #gold #silver", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Dismisses April bears who called the precious-metals bull over; implicitly endorses continued bull trend in gold, silver, and miners.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "In April many of the loudest talking heads declared that the bull market in precious metals was over. Where are they now? You know who I am talking about. Hint: Few. Another hint: Danish is not good for you. $GLD $SLV $GDX #gold #silver https://t.co/YuGPcbhMiE\n\n---\n\n@DonDurrett and @TaviCosta have been on fire!!! https://t.co/NycUPUElfl\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/VoVMEmK1PC", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02515439282040033, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02515439282040033, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.032619967295281604, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.032619967295281604, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.007465574474881276, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007465574474881276, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006172747999489969, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.006172747999489969, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.000753201836482198, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.000753201836482198, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005419546163007771, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005419546163007771, "ret_p1w": 0.03163577821986485, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03163577821986485, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.015923634008603083, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.015923634008603083, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01571214421126177, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01571214421126177, "ret_p1m": 0.1902776550673162, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1902776550673162, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1433705187098615, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1433705187098615, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04690713635745469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04690713635745469, "ret_p3m": 0.28441354446780065, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.28441354446780065, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.21410777850980622, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.21410777850980622, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07030576595799443, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07030576595799443, "ret_p6m": 0.7278907998778497, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.7278907998778497, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.639091359133299, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.639091359133299, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0887994407445507, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0887994407445507, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1902776550673162, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1433705187098615, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1433705187098615, "price_path": [-0.1798, -0.2034, -0.1955, -0.2063, -0.1985, -0.1739, -0.1596, -0.1736, -0.1742, -0.1821, -0.1821, -0.1931, -0.1804, -0.1997, -0.1988, -0.188, -0.2171, -0.1966, -0.1969, -0.1873, -0.1835, -0.1835, -0.1795, -0.2162, -0.2052, -0.1991, -0.191, -0.1906, -0.2034, -0.2003, -0.2093, -0.211, -0.1818, -0.1593, -0.1691, -0.177, -0.1673, -0.1884, -0.1782, -0.2009, -0.2031, -0.1906, -0.1522, -0.1287, -0.1144, -0.1059, -0.104, -0.1097, -0.1017, -0.1039, -0.1096, -0.1006, -0.1034, -0.1265, -0.1, -0.085, -0.0713, -0.0701, -0.0494, -0.0512, -0.0535, -0.0252, -0.0252, 0.0, 0.0062, -0.0035, 0.0238, 0.0377, 0.0316, 0.0571, 0.0765, 0.0764, 0.0877, 0.0651, 0.0596, 0.0616, 0.1167, 0.1471, 0.1455, 0.116, 0.1285, 0.1525, 0.1685, 0.179, 0.1903, 0.1898, 0.1895, 0.2131, 0.1878, 0.2215, 0.1668, 0.1694, 0.2248, 0.2106, 0.2573, 0.3031, 0.215, 0.2401, 0.1233, 0.1258, 0.1387, 0.1235, 0.0789, 0.096, 0.0968, 0.125, 0.112, 0.1003, 0.0537, 0.0906, 0.092, 0.1196, 0.1725, 0.1838, 0.223, 0.189, 0.1753, 0.1566, 0.1671, 0.1789, 0.1261, 0.1366, 0.2031, 0.2006, 0.2585, 0.2585, 0.2844, 0.2781, 0.2594, 0.2509, 0.256, 0.2505, 0.2216, 0.2645, 0.2858, 0.3312, 0.3219, 0.3094, 0.3091, 0.3245, 0.3221, 0.3548, 0.4018, 0.4032, 0.3943, 0.3943, 0.419, 0.3345, 0.3499, 0.3332, 0.3332, 0.3326, 0.3749, 0.4322, 0.4155, 0.4229, 0.4388, 0.4879, 0.4995, 0.5056, 0.5095, 0.5115, 0.5115, 0.5976, 0.5745, 0.6348, 0.6635, 0.6707, 0.6988, 0.7434, 0.6785, 0.4643, 0.4641, 0.5267, 0.5342, 0.4369, 0.5138, 0.5993, 0.6012, 0.6472, 0.5277, 0.6157, 0.6157, 0.5583, 0.5942, 0.6203, 0.6517, 0.7144, 0.7207, 0.7279]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1936522602467541193", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-06-21T20:32:21+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "GOLD: Own It, Don't Trade It – Tune Out the Noise!", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author sarcastically replaces Apple with Gold in Cramer's 'own it' mantra — bullish gold, implicitly bearish Apple.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the gold ETF; direct pass-through", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "A̷p̷p̷l̷e̷  GOLD: Own   It, Don’t Trade It – Tune Out the Noise! – Jim Cramer\n\nThere, I fixed it.\n\n---\n\nGold vs Apple https://t.co/LI894PG3IE", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.003053818086855453, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.003053818086855453, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.006726955375628174, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.006726955375628174, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.009780773462483627, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009780773462483627, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.015719378751237634, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.015719378751237634, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0267667715801031, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0267667715801031, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.011047392828865465, "bench_c_p1d": 0.011047392828865465, "ret_p1w": -0.02009129571100865, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.02009129571100865, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.04958405156956025, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.04958405156956025, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0294927558585516, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0294927558585516, "ret_p1m": 0.016137391500381293, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.016137391500381293, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.03170077982947639, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.03170077982947639, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04783817132985768, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04783817132985768, "ret_p3m": 0.07888649094827294, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07888649094827294, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.024604372898885396, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.024604372898885396, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10349086384715833, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10349086384715833, "ret_p6m": 0.27263093653397097, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.27263093653397097, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.13832753605479842, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13832753605479842, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13430340047917255, "bench_c_p6m": 0.13430340047917255, "ret_p1y": 0.20412756442384827, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.20412756442384827, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.014873165645765463, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.014873165645765463, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.21900073006961374, "bench_c_p1y": 0.21900073006961374, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.016137391500381293, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.03170077982947639, "alpha_c_stated": -0.03170077982947639, "price_path": [-0.1056, -0.0936, -0.0869, -0.0737, -0.0756, -0.0737, -0.0793, -0.1008, -0.1201, -0.1153, -0.0826, -0.0602, -0.0423, -0.0477, -0.0428, -0.0116, -0.0159, -0.0159, 0.0145, 0.0001, -0.0239, -0.0097, -0.0204, -0.0065, -0.0161, -0.0235, -0.0438, -0.0421, -0.0135, 0.0141, -0.0011, -0.0207, -0.0136, -0.0414, -0.0374, -0.0576, -0.0426, -0.0541, -0.042, -0.0241, -0.0169, -0.0256, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0212, -0.0234, -0.0176, -0.024, 0.0019, -0.007, -0.0006, -0.0056, -0.019, -0.0143, -0.014, -0.0087, 0.0036, 0.0167, 0.0023, 0.0028, -0.0026, -0.0026, -0.0031, 0.0, -0.0157, -0.0127, -0.0138, -0.0317, -0.0201, -0.0113, -0.0059, -0.0127, -0.0127, -0.0119, -0.0222, -0.0179, -0.0157, -0.0062, -0.0099, -0.014, -0.0091, -0.0112, -0.0086, 0.0066, 0.0161, 0.0035, -0.0026, -0.0118, -0.0182, -0.0155, -0.0325, -0.0261, -0.0063, -0.0005, 0.0003, -0.0019, 0.0066, 0.0063, -0.0081, -0.009, -0.006, -0.0123, -0.0117, -0.0133, -0.0187, -0.0087, -0.0122, -0.0016, -0.004, 0.0032, 0.0052, 0.0127, 0.0225, 0.0225, 0.0466, 0.0548, 0.0502, 0.0642, 0.0763, 0.0739, 0.0777, 0.0761, 0.0782, 0.0895, 0.0916, 0.0832, 0.0789, 0.0903, 0.1092, 0.1137, 0.1036, 0.1082, 0.1146, 0.133, 0.1427, 0.1445, 0.1405, 0.1497, 0.1713, 0.1774, 0.1968, 0.1747, 0.1866, 0.2154, 0.2241, 0.2453, 0.2744, 0.2505, 0.296, 0.2127, 0.2128, 0.2177, 0.2136, 0.1798, 0.1713, 0.1669, 0.1898, 0.1834, 0.1855, 0.1647, 0.1782, 0.1768, 0.184, 0.2163, 0.2211, 0.2408, 0.2308, 0.2086, 0.1947, 0.2034, 0.2053, 0.205, 0.2031, 0.2222, 0.2218, 0.2316, 0.2316, 0.2469, 0.2529, 0.2448, 0.2437, 0.2445, 0.2423, 0.239, 0.2453, 0.2506, 0.2641, 0.2712, 0.2723, 0.2726]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1909573805657194913", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-08T11:47:28+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "While gold may continue to correct in the ST, ultimately I believe it will go MUCH higher", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Stay defensive on equities/retail favorites; bearish USD; long gold on durable bullish thesis despite short-term correction.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I am told I should post a “thread” to get more views. So here goes my lame attempt at shameless engagement farming:\n\n---\n\nScore this low sentiment reading for the bulls https://t.co/bCcg7XWbBN\n\n---\n\nHowever this can still go lower https://t.co/EJIKqmQkSb\n\n---\n\nWatch what they do, not what they say. https://t.co/MC9AEI02UT\n\n---\n\nThe retail crowd is still in over their skis. Run, don’t walk, as fast as possible away from retail favorites. https://t.co/K6y6V6PDhP\n\n---\n\nNoteworthy, money going home.\n$ to go lower. https://t.co/jHjsXKJO3n\n\n---\n\nPositioning can go a lot lower (potential negative) https://t.co/nEABZagdp8\n\n---\n\nIt is the speed, not the size of the decline that is noteworthy. https://t.co/fGL6tHuXwh\n\n---\n\nNo real financial stress YET https://t.co/BD6onhRsBn\n\n---\n\nNet, net. I have been cautious for months and continue to advise investors to stay defensive until further notice. UNCERTAINTY is the operative word. While gold may continue to correct in the ST, ultimately I believe it will go MUCH higher. $GLD #gold $SPY $QQQ", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.005414319352690211, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.005414319352690211, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021326299099050927, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.021326299099050927, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015911979746360716, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015911979746360716, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03699125081478161, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03699125081478161, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06802812717469453, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.06802812717469453, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.10501937798947614, "bench_c_p1d": 0.10501937798947614, "ret_p1w": 0.08204936617255254, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08204936617255254, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0007936581501652995, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0007936581501652995, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.08284302432271784, "bench_c_p1w": 0.08284302432271784, "ret_p1m": 0.12917872898284877, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.12917872898284877, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.001078286188431532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.001078286188431532, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1302570151712803, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1302570151712803, "ret_p3m": 0.11606105023490332, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11606105023490332, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.147209706055214, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.147209706055214, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.2632707562901173, "bench_c_p3m": 0.2632707562901173, "ret_p6m": 0.29371360096982024, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.29371360096982024, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.060388863016839656, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.060388863016839656, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.3541024639866599, "bench_c_p6m": 0.3541024639866599, "ret_p1y": 0.45581394214124704, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.45581394214124704, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.1415918143322863, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.1415918143322863, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.31422212780896075, "bench_c_p1y": 0.31422212780896075, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.12917872898284877, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.001078286188431532, "alpha_c_stated": -0.001078286188431532, "price_path": [-0.1066, -0.0981, -0.107, -0.1024, -0.0956, -0.0894, -0.0942, -0.0942, -0.0802, -0.0755, -0.0768, -0.071, -0.0807, -0.0727, -0.0763, -0.0623, -0.0605, -0.0555, -0.0461, -0.0402, -0.0428, -0.0411, -0.0248, -0.0284, -0.0274, -0.0178, -0.0324, -0.0324, -0.0164, -0.0158, -0.0153, -0.0162, -0.0109, -0.0239, -0.0224, -0.0373, -0.0434, -0.0307, -0.0223, -0.0203, -0.0253, -0.0247, -0.0333, -0.0219, -0.0177, -0.0003, 0.0001, 0.0056, 0.0173, 0.0215, 0.0202, 0.012, 0.0074, 0.0119, 0.011, 0.0246, 0.0322, 0.047, 0.0449, 0.0471, 0.0408, 0.0164, -0.0054, 0.0, 0.037, 0.0623, 0.0826, 0.0764, 0.082, 0.1173, 0.1124, 0.1124, 0.1468, 0.1305, 0.1034, 0.1194, 0.1073, 0.1231, 0.1121, 0.1038, 0.0809, 0.0828, 0.1151, 0.1464, 0.1292, 0.1069, 0.115, 0.0835, 0.0882, 0.0653, 0.0823, 0.0692, 0.083, 0.1031, 0.1113, 0.1014, 0.1255, 0.1255, 0.1065, 0.104, 0.1105, 0.1032, 0.1325, 0.1225, 0.1297, 0.124, 0.1089, 0.1142, 0.1145, 0.1205, 0.1344, 0.1493, 0.1329, 0.1335, 0.1274, 0.1274, 0.1269, 0.1304, 0.1126, 0.116, 0.1148, 0.0945, 0.1077, 0.1176, 0.1237, 0.1161, 0.1161, 0.1169, 0.1052, 0.1102, 0.1126, 0.1233, 0.1192, 0.1146, 0.1201, 0.1177, 0.1206, 0.1378, 0.1486, 0.1344, 0.1274, 0.117, 0.1098, 0.1128, 0.0936, 0.1009, 0.1232, 0.1298, 0.1307, 0.1283, 0.1378, 0.1375, 0.1212, 0.1202, 0.1236, 0.1165, 0.1171, 0.1154, 0.1093, 0.1205, 0.1166, 0.1286, 0.1258, 0.134, 0.1363, 0.1447, 0.1558, 0.1558, 0.1831, 0.1924, 0.1871, 0.2029, 0.2166, 0.2139, 0.2182, 0.2164, 0.2188, 0.2315, 0.234, 0.2245, 0.2195, 0.2325, 0.2538, 0.2589, 0.2475, 0.2527, 0.26, 0.2807, 0.2917, 0.2937]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1909573805657194913", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-04-08T11:47:28+00:00", "symbol": "SPY", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I have been cautious for months and continue to advise investors to stay defensive until further notice", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Stay defensive on equities/retail favorites; bearish USD; long gold on durable bullish thesis despite short-term correction.", "resolved_tickers": ["SPY"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I am told I should post a “thread” to get more views. So here goes my lame attempt at shameless engagement farming:\n\n---\n\nScore this low sentiment reading for the bulls https://t.co/bCcg7XWbBN\n\n---\n\nHowever this can still go lower https://t.co/EJIKqmQkSb\n\n---\n\nWatch what they do, not what they say. https://t.co/MC9AEI02UT\n\n---\n\nThe retail crowd is still in over their skis. Run, don’t walk, as fast as possible away from retail favorites. https://t.co/K6y6V6PDhP\n\n---\n\nNoteworthy, money going home.\n$ to go lower. https://t.co/jHjsXKJO3n\n\n---\n\nPositioning can go a lot lower (potential negative) https://t.co/nEABZagdp8\n\n---\n\nIt is the speed, not the size of the decline that is noteworthy. https://t.co/fGL6tHuXwh\n\n---\n\nNo real financial stress YET https://t.co/BD6onhRsBn\n\n---\n\nNet, net. I have been cautious for months and continue to advise investors to stay defensive until further notice. UNCERTAINTY is the operative word. While gold may continue to correct in the ST, ultimately I believe it will go MUCH higher. $GLD #gold $SPY $QQQ", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.015911979746360716, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.015911979746360716, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015911979746360716, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015911979746360716, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.10501937798947614, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.10501937798947614, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.10501937798947614, "bench_c_p1d": 0.10501937798947614, "ret_p1w": 0.08284302432271784, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08284302432271784, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.08284302432271784, "bench_c_p1w": 0.08284302432271784, "ret_p1m": 0.1302570151712803, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1302570151712803, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1302570151712803, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1302570151712803, "ret_p3m": 0.2632707562901173, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.2632707562901173, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.0, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.2632707562901173, "bench_c_p3m": 0.2632707562901173, "ret_p6m": 0.3541024639866599, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.3541024639866599, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.0, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.0, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.3541024639866599, "bench_c_p6m": 0.3541024639866599, "ret_p1y": 0.31422212780896075, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.31422212780896075, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.31422212780896075, "bench_c_p1y": 0.31422212780896075, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1302570151712803, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0, "price_path": [0.1838, 0.1657, 0.1675, 0.1691, 0.1904, 0.1881, 0.2, 0.2, 0.211, 0.2178, 0.2245, 0.2209, 0.2036, 0.214, 0.2085, 0.215, 0.2085, 0.2004, 0.2085, 0.2134, 0.2176, 0.2064, 0.2146, 0.2155, 0.2116, 0.2244, 0.2244, 0.2244, 0.228, 0.2308, 0.2257, 0.2048, 0.1993, 0.1933, 0.1939, 0.1749, 0.1932, 0.1723, 0.1584, 0.1709, 0.1501, 0.1565, 0.1257, 0.1164, 0.1223, 0.1073, 0.1302, 0.1389, 0.1266, 0.1389, 0.1356, 0.136, 0.1563, 0.1591, 0.1452, 0.1422, 0.1192, 0.1267, 0.1299, 0.137, 0.081, 0.0177, 0.0159, 0.0, 0.105, 0.0566, 0.0755, 0.0859, 0.0828, 0.0588, 0.0603, 0.0603, 0.035, 0.062, 0.0784, 0.1011, 0.1091, 0.1095, 0.1165, 0.1169, 0.1249, 0.1416, 0.135, 0.1255, 0.1303, 0.1381, 0.1367, 0.1742, 0.182, 0.1835, 0.1893, 0.1968, 0.1981, 0.1941, 0.174, 0.1744, 0.1664, 0.1664, 0.1907, 0.1838, 0.1885, 0.1871, 0.1938, 0.2006, 0.2003, 0.1945, 0.2068, 0.2079, 0.2147, 0.2112, 0.2161, 0.2025, 0.2139, 0.2035, 0.2034, 0.2034, 0.2005, 0.2124, 0.2258, 0.2265, 0.2361, 0.2422, 0.2481, 0.2477, 0.2534, 0.2633, 0.2633, 0.2539, 0.2532, 0.2607, 0.2642, 0.2598, 0.2622, 0.2568, 0.261, 0.2687, 0.2678, 0.2702, 0.2704, 0.2812, 0.2816, 0.287, 0.2867, 0.2833, 0.2817, 0.2769, 0.256, 0.275, 0.2686, 0.2783, 0.2772, 0.2872, 0.2846, 0.2983, 0.3028, 0.3029, 0.2998, 0.2996, 0.2925, 0.2891, 0.2839, 0.3036, 0.2979, 0.3033, 0.3063, 0.3109, 0.3031, 0.3031, 0.2934, 0.3004, 0.3113, 0.3075, 0.3107, 0.3138, 0.3176, 0.3285, 0.3281, 0.3351, 0.3333, 0.3316, 0.3379, 0.3445, 0.3508, 0.3435, 0.3392, 0.333, 0.3407, 0.3444, 0.3495, 0.3541]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1917653731975344551", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-30T18:54:12+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": true, "quote": "the price of a used Tesla is crashing. The value of a $TSLA trade is in free fall. That is DISASTROUS for new $TSLA sales (as if the company did not already have enough problems)", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: used-car price crash is disastrous for new sales, compounding existing headwinds.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "What Charlie meant to say is that the price of a used Tesla is crashing. The value of a $TSLA trade is in free fall. That is DISASTROUS for new $TSLA sales (as if the company did not already have enough problems). There, I fixed it. @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @RealJimChanos @Seawolfcap @AlderLaneEggs @cvpayne @lisaabramowicz1 @DianeKingHall @ScottWapnerCNBC", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Buying a Tesla is becoming more and more affordable with each passing month. The average price of a used Tesla has moved down to a record low of $28,997. That's 57% below the average price from July 2022. $TSLA\n\nhttps://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih https://t.co/dYvLkXhPzL", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.034980135345500596, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.034980135345500596, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03537691959610123, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.025804341997206715, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0003967842506006347, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009175793348293881, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.005812356915055328, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.005812356915055328, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012899224985910451, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.011338206736620449, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0070868680708551235, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005525849821565121, "ret_p1w": -0.021051893834391544, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.021051893834391544, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03297171685187372, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03032908752294694, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011919823017482178, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009277193688555396, "ret_p1m": 0.2703075844335694, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.2703075844335694, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.20627252187615142, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.18052758254930423, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.06403506255741798, "bench_c_p1m": 0.08978000188426516, "ret_p3m": 0.15391973388187674, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.15391973388187674, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0019325033031265537, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.004873342366882305, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.1519872305787502, "bench_c_p3m": 0.14904639151499444, "ret_p6m": 0.5912248552561974, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.5912248552561974, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.37289284249079424, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.3781145412166875, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.21833201276540315, "bench_c_p6m": 0.21311031403950986, "ret_p1y": 0.4198326832917667, "ret_signed_p1y": -0.4198326832917667, "alpha_spy_p1y": -0.12455957239497728, "alpha_c_p1y": -0.18935806876539463, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2952731108967894, "bench_c_p1y": 0.23047461452637208, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.2703075844335694, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.20627252187615142, "alpha_c_stated": -0.18052758254930423, "price_path": [0.4339, 0.3598, 0.39, 0.3403, 0.3266, 0.2816, 0.243, 0.1642, 0.1926, 0.2615, 0.2611, 0.2611, 0.255, 0.2779, 0.256, 0.1972, 0.1714, 0.0731, 0.0306, -0.0007, 0.0383, 0.0088, -0.0359, -0.0108, -0.0663, -0.0691, -0.2127, -0.1828, -0.1207, -0.147, -0.114, -0.1565, -0.2015, -0.1641, -0.1627, -0.1185, -0.0134, 0.0212, -0.0358, -0.032, -0.066, -0.0815, -0.0486, 0.0021, -0.0527, -0.1514, -0.1732, -0.2137, -0.0353, -0.1055, -0.1058, -0.1056, -0.0994, -0.1439, -0.1446, -0.1446, -0.1937, -0.1566, -0.1114, -0.0803, 0.0099, 0.0132, 0.035, 0.0, -0.0058, 0.0179, -0.0067, -0.0241, -0.0211, 0.0094, 0.0571, 0.1284, 0.184, 0.2322, 0.215, 0.2404, 0.2124, 0.2185, 0.1859, 0.2087, 0.2027, 0.2027, 0.2861, 0.2649, 0.2703, 0.2279, 0.2145, 0.2201, 0.1768, 0.009, 0.046, 0.0936, 0.1557, 0.1569, 0.131, 0.1529, 0.1665, 0.1212, 0.1414, 0.1414, 0.1418, 0.2358, 0.2067, 0.1609, 0.1546, 0.147, 0.1258, 0.0657, 0.1187, 0.1176, 0.1176, 0.0417, 0.0555, 0.0486, 0.0982, 0.1111, 0.1231, 0.1014, 0.14, 0.132, 0.1683, 0.1642, 0.177, 0.1786, 0.082, 0.1201, 0.1539, 0.1384, 0.1307, 0.0925, 0.0725, 0.096, 0.0941, 0.1338, 0.1422, 0.1683, 0.2016, 0.208, 0.2028, 0.1893, 0.1715, 0.1878, 0.1671, 0.1479, 0.1345, 0.205, 0.2284, 0.2463, 0.239, 0.2262, 0.1833, 0.1833, 0.1673, 0.184, 0.1998, 0.2434, 0.2277, 0.2297, 0.2326, 0.3071, 0.4032, 0.4532, 0.4943, 0.5093, 0.4774, 0.51, 0.5389, 0.5093, 0.5693, 0.5005, 0.5608, 0.5708, 0.5761, 0.6284, 0.5452, 0.5234, 0.6064, 0.5349, 0.5548, 0.5436, 0.4654, 0.5449, 0.5213, 0.5422, 0.5195, 0.557, 0.5857, 0.5686, 0.5557, 0.5912]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1929537869976142268", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-06-02T13:57:31+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You know what to do…the song remains the same. #gold $gld", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish gold/GLD; implies continued upward trend.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You know what to do…the song remains the same. #gold $gld https://t.co/iu7e1oZtk1\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/pNsdMAlUPG\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/FXBTaJ5O7a", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.025892793584679885, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.025892793584679885, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.02029142436109188, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02029142436109188, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005601369223588004, "bench_c_m1d": -0.005601369223588004, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.008855551213511115, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.008855551213511115, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.01455810848291672, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01455810848291672, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005702557269405606, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005702557269405606, "ret_p1w": -0.01620309331336367, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.01620309331336367, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.027962522650378352, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.027962522650378352, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011759429337014682, "bench_c_p1w": 0.011759429337014682, "ret_p1m": -0.013219191636223648, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.013219191636223648, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.05837767258331872, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.05837767258331872, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04515848094709507, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04515848094709507, "ret_p3m": 0.010780585897916639, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.010780585897916639, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.08729151554492676, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08729151554492676, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0980721014428434, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0980721014428434, "ret_p6m": 0.21949488304043463, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.21949488304043463, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.07409068953213338, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.07409068953213338, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.14540419350830125, "bench_c_p6m": 0.14540419350830125, "ret_p1y": 0.33923693622602924, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.33923693622602924, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.07428893476825316, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.07428893476825316, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.2649480014577761, "bench_c_p1y": 0.2649480014577761, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.013219191636223648, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.05837767258331872, "alpha_c_stated": -0.05837767258331872, "price_path": [-0.1349, -0.1393, -0.1389, -0.1464, -0.1364, -0.1326, -0.1172, -0.1169, -0.1121, -0.1017, -0.0981, -0.0992, -0.1065, -0.1104, -0.1065, -0.1073, -0.0953, -0.0886, -0.0755, -0.0773, -0.0754, -0.081, -0.1025, -0.1218, -0.117, -0.0844, -0.062, -0.0441, -0.0495, -0.0446, -0.0135, -0.0178, -0.0178, 0.0126, -0.0018, -0.0257, -0.0116, -0.0223, -0.0083, -0.018, -0.0253, -0.0456, -0.0439, -0.0154, 0.0122, -0.003, -0.0226, -0.0155, -0.0433, -0.0392, -0.0594, -0.0444, -0.0559, -0.0438, -0.026, -0.0188, -0.0275, -0.0062, -0.0062, -0.023, -0.0252, -0.0194, -0.0259, 0.0, -0.0089, -0.0025, -0.0075, -0.0208, -0.0162, -0.0159, -0.0106, 0.0017, 0.0148, 0.0004, 0.0009, -0.0045, -0.0045, -0.0049, -0.0019, -0.0176, -0.0146, -0.0157, -0.0335, -0.0219, -0.0132, -0.0078, -0.0145, -0.0145, -0.0138, -0.0241, -0.0197, -0.0176, -0.0081, -0.0117, -0.0159, -0.0109, -0.0131, -0.0105, 0.0047, 0.0142, 0.0016, -0.0045, -0.0137, -0.0201, -0.0174, -0.0344, -0.0279, -0.0082, -0.0024, -0.0016, -0.0038, 0.0047, 0.0044, -0.01, -0.0109, -0.0079, -0.0142, -0.0136, -0.0151, -0.0205, -0.0106, -0.0141, -0.0035, -0.0059, 0.0013, 0.0033, 0.0108, 0.0205, 0.0205, 0.0447, 0.0528, 0.0482, 0.0622, 0.0743, 0.0718, 0.0757, 0.0741, 0.0762, 0.0874, 0.0896, 0.0812, 0.0768, 0.0883, 0.1071, 0.1116, 0.1015, 0.1061, 0.1125, 0.1309, 0.1405, 0.1423, 0.1384, 0.1475, 0.1691, 0.1752, 0.1945, 0.1725, 0.1843, 0.2131, 0.2218, 0.2429, 0.272, 0.2481, 0.2935, 0.2104, 0.2105, 0.2154, 0.2113, 0.1776, 0.1691, 0.1647, 0.1876, 0.1811, 0.1832, 0.1625, 0.176, 0.1745, 0.1817, 0.214, 0.2188, 0.2385, 0.2284, 0.2063, 0.1924, 0.2011, 0.2031, 0.2027, 0.2009, 0.2199, 0.2195]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1964709725293154339", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-07T15:17:55+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The crowd only just now got the memo. Early days.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish GDX; capital inflows just starting, early innings of a larger move into gold miners.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The crowd only just now got the memo. Early days.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "This is the first significant capital inflow into the $GDX in a long time. It \"only\" took the strongest August ever for the Gold Miners ETF GDX 😃 https://t.co/sw8Abg3EzX", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.013384864042723987, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.013384864042723987, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010934306059278809, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.010934306059278809, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0024505579834451785, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0024505579834451785, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0058000620361715605, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0058000620361715605, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.008112041988105778, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.008112041988105778, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0023119799519342177, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0023119799519342177, "ret_p1w": 0.04818569341650836, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04818569341650836, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.029567539903626594, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.029567539903626594, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018618153512881763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.018618153512881763, "ret_p1m": 0.14470554190561669, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.14470554190561669, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1105745431508216, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1105745431508216, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03413099875479508, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03413099875479508, "ret_p3m": 0.21044022595429768, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.21044022595429768, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15270930283248174, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.15270930283248174, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.057730923121815936, "bench_c_p3m": 0.057730923121815936, "ret_p6m": 0.5765070115274362, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5765070115274362, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5219438851918274, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5219438851918274, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05456312633560878, "bench_c_p6m": 0.05456312633560878, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.14470554190561669, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1105745431508216, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1105745431508216, "price_path": [-0.2275, -0.2039, -0.1901, -0.2036, -0.2042, -0.2118, -0.2118, -0.2223, -0.2101, -0.2287, -0.2278, -0.2174, -0.2455, -0.2258, -0.2261, -0.2168, -0.2131, -0.2131, -0.2093, -0.2446, -0.2341, -0.2281, -0.2204, -0.22, -0.2323, -0.2293, -0.238, -0.2396, -0.2115, -0.1898, -0.1993, -0.2069, -0.1975, -0.2179, -0.2081, -0.2299, -0.232, -0.22, -0.1829, -0.1603, -0.1465, -0.1383, -0.1365, -0.142, -0.1343, -0.1364, -0.1419, -0.1333, -0.1359, -0.1582, -0.1327, -0.1182, -0.105, -0.1038, -0.0839, -0.0857, -0.0879, -0.0605, -0.0605, -0.0363, -0.0303, -0.0397, -0.0134, 0.0, -0.0058, 0.0187, 0.0375, 0.0373, 0.0482, 0.0265, 0.0211, 0.0231, 0.0761, 0.1054, 0.104, 0.0756, 0.0876, 0.1106, 0.1261, 0.1362, 0.1471, 0.1466, 0.1463, 0.1691, 0.1447, 0.1771, 0.1245, 0.127, 0.1804, 0.1667, 0.2116, 0.2558, 0.1709, 0.1951, 0.0825, 0.0849, 0.0974, 0.0827, 0.0397, 0.0562, 0.057, 0.0842, 0.0717, 0.0604, 0.0155, 0.051, 0.0523, 0.079, 0.13, 0.1408, 0.1786, 0.1459, 0.1327, 0.1147, 0.1248, 0.1361, 0.0852, 0.0953, 0.1594, 0.157, 0.2128, 0.2128, 0.2378, 0.2317, 0.2137, 0.2055, 0.2104, 0.2051, 0.1773, 0.2186, 0.2391, 0.2829, 0.2739, 0.2619, 0.2616, 0.2765, 0.2741, 0.3056, 0.3509, 0.3523, 0.3437, 0.3437, 0.3675, 0.286, 0.3009, 0.2848, 0.2848, 0.2842, 0.325, 0.3803, 0.3641, 0.3713, 0.3866, 0.4339, 0.4451, 0.451, 0.4547, 0.4567, 0.4567, 0.5397, 0.5173, 0.5755, 0.6032, 0.6101, 0.6372, 0.6802, 0.6176, 0.4111, 0.411, 0.4713, 0.4785, 0.3848, 0.4589, 0.5413, 0.5431, 0.5874, 0.4722, 0.557, 0.557, 0.5018, 0.5364, 0.5615, 0.5918, 0.6522, 0.6583, 0.6652, 0.7061, 0.7353, 0.7278, 0.5765]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1912543660467515577", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-04-16T16:28:36+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold will be last man standing", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish gold as the last safe haven standing; reinforces prior warning.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I tried to warn you. Gold will be last man standing. Always better to “pick on a cripple.” $gld #GOLD @davevermilion @MichaelMOTTCM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03151527759760453, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03151527759760453, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05424843757878406, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05424843757878406, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.02273315998117953, "bench_c_m1d": 0.02273315998117953, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.004390692094044635, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004390692094044635, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.005817291460764595, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.005817291460764595, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0014265993667199606, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014265993667199606, "ret_p1w": -0.012424000094489629, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.012424000094489629, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.030990985975912877, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.030990985975912877, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.018566985881423248, "bench_c_p1w": 0.018566985881423248, "ret_p1m": -0.03132014454932153, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03132014454932153, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.15459370734112332, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.15459370734112332, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1232735627918018, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1232735627918018, "ret_p3m": 0.0017562966883857278, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.0017562966883857278, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1903775314254652, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1903775314254652, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.19213382811385094, "bench_c_p3m": 0.19213382811385094, "ret_p6m": 0.1885061671869388, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1885061671869388, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.09561353057557498, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.09561353057557498, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.2841196977625138, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2841196977625138, "ret_p1y": 0.39659154375153904, "ret_signed_p1y": 0.39659154375153904, "alpha_spy_p1y": 0.1346577268470195, "alpha_c_p1y": 0.1346577268470195, "bench_spy_p1y": 0.26193381690451956, "bench_c_p1y": 0.26193381690451956, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03132014454932153, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.15459370734112332, "alpha_c_stated": -0.15459370734112332, "price_path": [-0.1893, -0.1893, -0.1767, -0.1725, -0.1737, -0.1685, -0.1772, -0.1701, -0.1733, -0.1607, -0.1591, -0.1546, -0.1463, -0.141, -0.1432, -0.1417, -0.1272, -0.1304, -0.1294, -0.1209, -0.1339, -0.1339, -0.1196, -0.1191, -0.1186, -0.1195, -0.1147, -0.1264, -0.125, -0.1384, -0.1438, -0.1325, -0.1249, -0.1231, -0.1276, -0.1271, -0.1347, -0.1246, -0.1208, -0.1052, -0.1048, -0.1, -0.0895, -0.0857, -0.0869, -0.0943, -0.0983, -0.0943, -0.0951, -0.0829, -0.0761, -0.0629, -0.0647, -0.0628, -0.0685, -0.0903, -0.1098, -0.105, -0.0718, -0.0492, -0.031, -0.0366, -0.0315, 0.0, -0.0044, -0.0044, 0.0264, 0.0118, -0.0124, 0.002, -0.0089, 0.0052, -0.0046, -0.012, -0.0326, -0.0309, -0.0019, 0.0261, 0.0107, -0.0092, -0.002, -0.0302, -0.0261, -0.0465, -0.0313, -0.043, -0.0307, -0.0127, -0.0054, -0.0142, 0.0074, 0.0074, -0.0097, -0.0119, -0.006, -0.0126, 0.0137, 0.0047, 0.0112, 0.006, -0.0074, -0.0028, -0.0025, 0.0029, 0.0154, 0.0287, 0.014, 0.0145, 0.0091, 0.0091, 0.0087, 0.0117, -0.0042, -0.0011, -0.0022, -0.0203, -0.0086, 0.0003, 0.0058, -0.0011, -0.0011, -0.0003, -0.0108, -0.0063, -0.0041, 0.0054, 0.0018, -0.0024, 0.0026, 0.0004, 0.003, 0.0184, 0.0281, 0.0153, 0.0091, -0.0002, -0.0067, -0.004, -0.0212, -0.0147, 0.0053, 0.0112, 0.012, 0.0099, 0.0184, 0.0181, 0.0035, 0.0026, 0.0057, -0.0007, -0.0001, -0.0017, -0.0072, 0.0029, -0.0006, 0.0101, 0.0077, 0.015, 0.017, 0.0246, 0.0345, 0.0345, 0.0589, 0.0672, 0.0625, 0.0767, 0.089, 0.0865, 0.0904, 0.0888, 0.0909, 0.1023, 0.1045, 0.0959, 0.0916, 0.1031, 0.1222, 0.1268, 0.1166, 0.1212, 0.1277, 0.1463, 0.1561, 0.1579, 0.1539, 0.1632, 0.1851, 0.1912, 0.2108, 0.1885]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1966549449829654612", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-12T17:08:20+00:00", "symbol": "ABTC", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$ABTC IS TOTAL GARBAGE. Anyone who owns this POS deserves to lose all their money. $6.5b for $270mm in $BTC and a lousy mining business? What is the bull case?", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish ABTC: $6.5B valuation vs $270M BTC holdings and weak mining business; no bull case.", "resolved_tickers": ["ABTC"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$ABTC IS TOTAL GARBAGE. \nAnyone who owns this POS deserves \nto lose all their money. https://t.co/S0pVBt66cb\n\n---\n\n$6.5b for $270mm in $BTC and a lousy mining business? What is the bull case? $ABTC https://t.co/jGHqim0AsK", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04942964170914643, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04942964170914643, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04909499318678168, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04515460254894954, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0003346485223647555, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004275039160196892, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.10329531951988236, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.10329531951988236, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.10861909407735781, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.10106480482305369, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005323774557475458, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002230514696828667, "ret_p1w": -0.09885928341829275, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09885928341829275, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.11122607171616428, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.1072235875217572, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012366788297871523, "bench_c_p1w": 0.008364304103464448, "ret_p1m": -0.2357414053424739, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2357414053424739, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.24710143195665324, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.21777394232846436, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011360026614179342, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017967463014009533, "ret_p3m": -0.7541191267364895, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.7541191267364895, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.8028956742676565, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.7590893790999624, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.048776547531167, "bench_c_p3m": 0.004970252363472927, "ret_p6m": -0.8605830110955597, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.8605830110955597, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.8982310167968817, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.8024448979020332, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.037648005701321985, "bench_c_p6m": -0.058138113193526464, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2357414053424739, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.24710143195665324, "alpha_c_stated": 0.21777394232846436, "price_path": [-0.4151, -0.4594, -0.4594, -0.4575, -0.493, -0.4594, -0.4797, -0.4658, -0.4835, -0.4417, -0.429, -0.2586, -0.1698, -0.1698, -0.1698, -0.1255, -0.1698, -0.0684, -0.1001, -0.1445, -0.1888, -0.1381, -0.1572, -0.2015, -0.2269, -0.1952, -0.2142, -0.2395, -0.2332, -0.3156, -0.3219, -0.3663, -0.3156, -0.3346, -0.2332, -0.2332, -0.2459, -0.2712, -0.1888, -0.1825, -0.1128, -0.1318, -0.1065, -0.1952, -0.1825, -0.2649, -0.2712, -0.2459, -0.1888, -0.1128, -0.2142, -0.2332, 0.09, -0.0241, -0.0241, -0.1255, 0.019, -0.1876, -0.0621, 0.057, 0.18, 0.1242, 0.0494, 0.0, -0.1033, -0.0203, -0.0241, -0.052, -0.0989, -0.0824, -0.1204, -0.1141, -0.1521, -0.166, -0.161, -0.1458, -0.0875, -0.0837, -0.1153, -0.0938, -0.1381, -0.1343, -0.1698, -0.2459, -0.2357, -0.27, -0.2915, -0.3625, -0.3992, -0.3549, -0.3828, -0.4309, -0.3599, -0.2877, -0.2446, -0.2801, -0.3054, -0.3473, -0.3549, -0.3764, -0.4119, -0.3929, -0.4246, -0.4119, -0.3802, -0.3777, -0.3752, -0.3992, -0.384, -0.3599, -0.3574, -0.4005, -0.4195, -0.4385, -0.4436, -0.455, -0.4677, -0.4677, -0.4626, -0.5463, -0.7224, -0.6971, -0.6933, -0.7174, -0.744, -0.7402, -0.7541, -0.7681, -0.7744, -0.7909, -0.7909, -0.7909, -0.7985, -0.7744, -0.7529, -0.7643, -0.7617, -0.7617, -0.7605, -0.7706, -0.782, -0.7845, -0.7845, -0.7744, -0.744, -0.7503, -0.7579, -0.7579, -0.7681, -0.7693, -0.763, -0.7769, -0.7871, -0.7921, -0.7921, -0.8023, -0.801, -0.8023, -0.8061, -0.8086, -0.7985, -0.8023, -0.8048, -0.8086, -0.8188, -0.8289, -0.8378, -0.8549, -0.834, -0.8403, -0.8479, -0.8542, -0.8542, -0.8568, -0.8568, -0.8619, -0.8682, -0.8707, -0.8733, -0.8764, -0.8707, -0.8669, -0.8631, -0.8707, -0.8707, -0.8695, -0.8542, -0.8517, -0.8619, -0.8606]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2003544685336289440", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-23T19:14:11+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history... Fair value is perhaps $50. The emperor is wearing no clothes. Look out below.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Short TSLA: calls it biggest bubble in history, fair value $50, expects share price to crater on failed robotaxi launch, collapsing earnings, and declining auto sales.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history with a market cap of $1.6T. Never before has a single stock been so overpriced at such a scale.\n\n$TSLA auto sales are in free fall\nand will decline double digits in 2026.\nNext year will be the third consecutive year of declining unit sales.\n\nThere will be no robotaxis for many years as approval takes years and $TSLA has not even filed the necessary applications. $TSLA just admitted to the California DMV,\n“The currently enabled Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous.”\n\nThey will sell zero robots in 2026.\nThe competition is way ahead.\n\nThe share price is sustained only by the lies of @elonmusk \n\nEarnings estimates continue to collapse. Estimates for 2025 have \ngone from $8 to 1.65 yet the share price has more than doubled from the April 2025 lows. I expect the share price to ultimately converge with the decline in profits.\n\nPent up selling (for tax purposes), the failure to launch paid robotaxis and the announcement of horrendous 4q deliveries may well cause the stock to crater early in the new year.\n\nFair value is perhaps $50. \nThe emperor is wearing no clothes. Look out below.\n\n@GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @TommyThornton @MichaelMOTTCM @zerohedge @doomerzoomer @unusual_whales @maggielake @adamtaggart @JulianMI2 @JackFarley96 @DarioCpx", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "This isn’t widely understood, &amp; if accurate, matters. Musk said $TSLA would have 500 robotaxis operating in Austin by yr-end. If the reality is 3 to 5 vehicles, that’s not a rounding error - it’s a categorical failure. Since roughly June, the stock has doubled, fueled in large", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.006528572048095649, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.006528572048095649, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.011078270035591697, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.005137152726402583, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004549697987496049, "bench_c_m1d": 0.001391419321693066, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.00032952397832164415, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.00032952397832164415, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.003847198374566485, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.003767317841354867, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003517674396244841, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0034377938630332228, "ret_p1w": -0.06411155169152083, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06411155169152083, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06273061475751829, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0492961210318168, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0013809369340025412, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014815430659704032, "ret_p1m": -0.11145892451870831, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.11145892451870831, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1077378065297192, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.10515621883762694, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.003721117988989109, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0063027056810813775, "ret_p3m": -0.2421945932424644, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2421945932424644, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1875130404389519, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.12408044795275608, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0546815528035125, "bench_c_p3m": -0.11811414528970832, "ret_p6m": -0.1836642085925121, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1836642085925121, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.26364501122341866, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13088526356573893, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07998080263090657, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05277894502677316, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.11145892451870831, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1077378065297192, "alpha_c_stated": 0.10515621883762694, "price_path": [-0.128, -0.093, -0.0872, -0.0841, -0.0538, -0.1021, -0.1148, -0.0665, -0.1081, -0.0965, -0.103, -0.1484, -0.1023, -0.116, -0.1038, -0.117, -0.0953, -0.0785, -0.0885, -0.096, -0.0753, -0.1068, -0.0683, -0.0515, -0.0495, -0.0936, -0.0597, -0.0354, -0.0851, -0.0484, -0.0817, -0.1154, -0.0831, -0.0946, -0.1132, -0.1721, -0.1673, -0.1578, -0.1736, -0.168, -0.186, -0.1946, -0.1396, -0.1363, -0.1215, -0.1215, -0.1141, -0.1141, -0.116, -0.0799, -0.0639, -0.0629, -0.0947, -0.0832, -0.0702, -0.0796, -0.0548, -0.0211, 0.0089, -0.0377, -0.0045, -0.009, 0.0065, 0.0, -0.0003, -0.0003, -0.0214, -0.0534, -0.0641, -0.0738, -0.0738, -0.0978, -0.0698, -0.1083, -0.1115, -0.1025, -0.0835, -0.0754, -0.079, -0.0955, -0.0968, -0.099, -0.099, -0.1366, -0.1115, -0.0746, -0.0752, -0.1037, -0.1126, -0.1114, -0.1421, -0.1136, -0.1313, -0.131, -0.1638, -0.182, -0.1533, -0.1405, -0.1243, -0.118, -0.1411, -0.1403, -0.1403, -0.1543, -0.1529, -0.1521, -0.1519, -0.1766, -0.1569, -0.1404, -0.1585, -0.171, -0.1694, -0.1918, -0.164, -0.1648, -0.1829, -0.1789, -0.1778, -0.1601, -0.1865, -0.1943, -0.1854, -0.1777, -0.1911, -0.2168, -0.2422, -0.2156, -0.2112, -0.2051, -0.2336, -0.2548, -0.2683, -0.2344, -0.2148, -0.2574, -0.2574, -0.2734, -0.2861, -0.2931, -0.2882, -0.2813, -0.2742, -0.2499, -0.1928, -0.1991, -0.1749, -0.1917, -0.2042, -0.2019, -0.2303, -0.225, -0.2201, -0.2256, -0.2322, -0.214, -0.1951, -0.1916, -0.1981, -0.1788, -0.1519, -0.1178, -0.0835, -0.1073, -0.083, -0.087, -0.1304, -0.1556, -0.1677, -0.1407, -0.1394, -0.1226, -0.1226, -0.107, -0.0931, -0.0895, -0.1025, -0.1435, -0.1273, -0.1274, -0.1382, -0.1947, -0.1578, -0.183, -0.2141, -0.178, -0.163, -0.1532, -0.1666, -0.1837]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1990842000455725247", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-18T17:58:15+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is a SELL", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Sell OPEN: revenue declining 35% YoY, loss-making until 2027, 40x revenues valuation, poor unit economics, challenged housing market.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Classic example of a low bar. \n\nA lame attempt to spin another upcoming loss making quarter. \n\nWhat a disaster. \n$OPEN 4q 2024 gross revenues were $1.1B. If they continue at this pace their revenue “beat” would constitute a decline of 35% from last year. \n\nRecall that $OPEN is guiding to losses until 2027. \n\n$OPEN is valued at 40x 4q revenues/gross profits.\n\nKNOW WHAT YOU OWN, as Peter Lynch would always say. \n\nLook at the record - $OPEN has lost money EVERY YEAR since inception.\n\nUnderstand $OPEN unit economics - low margin, asset heavy, does not scale.\n\nThe outlook for housing \nremains very challenged owing to poor levels of affordability.\n\nIndustry is extremely competitive.\n\nLook at the valuation - 20/40x revenues (same as gross margin).\n\n$OPEN remains a house flipper, regardless of how management tries to spin it. \n\nDon’t confuse a speculative lottery ticket/meme stock for a serious investment. \n\n$OPEN is a SELL\n\n@nejatian @ericjackson @rabois @m3_melody @dayetweets @APompliano @UnicusResearch", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$OPEN now $59.8m ahead of revenue guidance QTD vs expected.   \n\nCurrent as of today: $363.5m\n\nExpected this time in the QTR: $303.7m\n\n592 homes to sell at current avg sale price of $377k\n\n44 days left to go. https://t.co/kW3kDabl7s", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.042553214424603025, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.042553214424603025, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03408454497737412, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.046226966163354866, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008468669447228905, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0036737517387518404, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.11037233056000528, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.11037233056000528, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.1142355072032819, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.10253487841584685, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0038631766432766224, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00783745214415843, "ret_p1w": 0.029255291323091903, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.029255291323091903, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.006621640850515753, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.017989061773509007, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02263365047257615, "bench_c_p1w": 0.011266229549582896, "ret_p1m": -0.186170225919993, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.186170225919993, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20331966846498328, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1837210580941584, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01714944254499029, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0024491678258345972, "ret_p3m": -0.4089095501415515, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4089095501415515, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4447907750806893, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.485946208622584, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03588122493913781, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07703665848103247, "ret_p6m": -0.3909574554092261, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3909574554092261, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5219365407772627, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4929306593991809, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1309790853680366, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1019732039899548, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.186170225919993, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20331966846498328, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1837210580941584, "price_path": [-0.5213, -0.3338, -0.3963, -0.375, -0.4654, -0.4322, -0.4082, -0.4082, -0.3231, -0.3178, -0.2074, -0.1157, -0.1968, -0.1875, -0.2207, 0.3989, 0.2061, 0.2626, 0.1862, 0.3577, 0.3218, 0.2726, 0.1144, -0.0572, 0.0944, 0.2088, 0.1715, 0.0904, 0.0598, 0.0718, 0.0652, 0.0785, 0.234, 0.2354, 0.129, 0.0824, 0.0066, -0.0332, 0.016, -0.0186, -0.0545, -0.0479, -0.0199, -0.0745, -0.0931, -0.0652, 0.0598, 0.0851, 0.0598, 0.0173, -0.0239, 0.0332, 0.0093, -0.0798, -0.0386, -0.1277, -0.1277, 0.0598, 0.1277, 0.246, 0.1383, 0.0798, 0.0426, 0.0, -0.1104, -0.1809, -0.1024, 0.0226, 0.0293, 0.0346, 0.0346, 0.0239, -0.0505, -0.0705, -0.0771, 0.008, -0.0492, -0.0625, -0.0146, -0.0691, -0.0625, -0.1277, -0.1396, -0.1051, -0.1862, -0.1649, -0.1543, -0.1463, -0.1662, -0.1649, -0.1649, -0.2008, -0.2247, -0.2234, -0.2247, -0.2247, -0.1928, -0.1596, -0.0785, -0.1862, -0.1449, -0.0306, -0.0665, -0.0997, -0.117, -0.1622, -0.113, -0.113, -0.1503, -0.1383, -0.1463, -0.2008, -0.2194, -0.2274, -0.234, -0.258, -0.3152, -0.359, -0.3178, -0.3351, -0.375, -0.3511, -0.3431, -0.3763, -0.367, -0.4176, -0.4089, -0.4089, -0.4242, -0.3843, -0.3816, -0.3351, -0.3644, -0.3205, -0.3378, -0.2806, -0.2793, -0.3285, -0.3391, -0.3511, -0.3112, -0.3351, -0.3245, -0.3338, -0.2992, -0.3564, -0.3418, -0.3112, -0.2606, -0.2979, -0.3165, -0.3471, -0.3072, -0.3112, -0.3218, -0.3484, -0.3617, -0.4109, -0.3777, -0.3923, -0.3697, -0.3697, -0.387, -0.3949, -0.383, -0.4269, -0.4255, -0.4202, -0.4003, -0.359, -0.2992, -0.2965, -0.2886, -0.2753, -0.2779, -0.3059, -0.2673, -0.2832, -0.2713, -0.258, -0.2846, -0.2766, -0.3178, -0.3045, -0.2739, -0.2926, -0.3338, -0.3551, -0.3737, -0.391]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1990442609534452063", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-17T15:31:13+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Total non event. SELL $OPEN", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Dismisses the warrant distribution as a non-event; issues a sell instruction on Opendoor.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Total non event. \nSELL $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$OPEN Opendoor - Reminder: WARRANTS Record date is tomorrow 11/18 (shares have to be settled T+1)    \n\nWarrants:\nFor every 30 shares, you get 3 warrants, one of each of the following (like the acronym? KAZ):\nSeries K $9 - $OPENW\nSeries A $13 - $OPENL\nSeries Z $17 - $OPENZ https://t.co/i6TNte1QPY", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.035714250959391514, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.035714250959391514, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.026310292902597565, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.029077095384222318, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.009403958056793948, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006637155575169196, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04081634763179798, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04081634763179798, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.032418794288003094, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.044503645587827156, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008397553343794883, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0036872979560291785, "ret_p1w": -0.01913266485306364, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01913266485306364, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.02372952885677937, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.026015601783334397, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004596864003715728, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0068829369302707555, "ret_p1m": -0.14158164692739283, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.14158164692739283, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1614113143626842, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.13838600795315115, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019829667435291354, "bench_c_p1m": -0.003195638974241688, "ret_p3m": -0.44132652688850627, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.44132652688850627, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4677857443852673, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.5066785665608711, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.026459217496761056, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0653520396723648, "ret_p6m": -0.39923470070440525, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.39923470070440525, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5144767305910936, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5145279136250915, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1152420298866883, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11529321292068628, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.14158164692739283, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1614113143626842, "alpha_c_stated": 0.13838600795315115, "price_path": [-0.5893, -0.5408, -0.361, -0.4209, -0.4005, -0.4872, -0.4554, -0.4324, -0.4324, -0.3508, -0.3457, -0.2398, -0.1518, -0.2296, -0.2207, -0.2526, 0.3418, 0.1569, 0.2111, 0.1378, 0.3023, 0.2679, 0.2207, 0.0689, -0.0957, 0.0497, 0.1594, 0.1237, 0.0459, 0.0166, 0.0281, 0.0217, 0.0344, 0.1837, 0.1849, 0.0829, 0.0383, -0.0344, -0.0727, -0.0255, -0.0587, -0.0931, -0.0867, -0.0599, -0.1122, -0.1301, -0.1033, 0.0166, 0.0408, 0.0166, -0.0242, -0.0638, -0.0089, -0.0319, -0.1173, -0.0778, -0.1633, -0.1633, 0.0166, 0.0816, 0.1952, 0.0918, 0.0357, 0.0, -0.0408, -0.1467, -0.2143, -0.139, -0.0191, -0.0128, -0.0077, -0.0077, -0.0179, -0.0893, -0.1084, -0.1148, -0.0332, -0.088, -0.1008, -0.0548, -0.1071, -0.1008, -0.1633, -0.1747, -0.1416, -0.2194, -0.199, -0.1888, -0.1811, -0.2003, -0.199, -0.199, -0.2334, -0.2564, -0.2551, -0.2564, -0.2564, -0.2258, -0.1939, -0.1161, -0.2194, -0.1798, -0.0702, -0.1046, -0.1365, -0.1531, -0.1964, -0.1492, -0.1492, -0.1849, -0.1735, -0.1811, -0.2334, -0.2513, -0.2589, -0.2653, -0.2883, -0.3431, -0.3852, -0.3457, -0.3622, -0.4005, -0.3776, -0.3699, -0.4018, -0.3929, -0.4413, -0.433, -0.433, -0.4477, -0.4094, -0.4069, -0.3622, -0.3903, -0.3482, -0.3648, -0.3099, -0.3087, -0.3559, -0.3661, -0.3776, -0.3393, -0.3622, -0.352, -0.361, -0.3278, -0.3827, -0.3686, -0.3393, -0.2908, -0.3265, -0.3444, -0.3737, -0.3355, -0.3393, -0.3495, -0.375, -0.3878, -0.4349, -0.4031, -0.4171, -0.3954, -0.3954, -0.412, -0.4196, -0.4082, -0.4503, -0.449, -0.4439, -0.4247, -0.3852, -0.3278, -0.3253, -0.3176, -0.3048, -0.3074, -0.3342, -0.2972, -0.3125, -0.301, -0.2883, -0.3138, -0.3061, -0.3457, -0.3329, -0.3036, -0.3214, -0.361, -0.3814, -0.3992]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2003862976177058238", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-24T16:18:58+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I doubled my position again this morning at a price of $481. My average cost is now $473. The coming crash in $TSLA will produce the largest destruction of market capitalization in history IMHO.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA, doubled position at $481 (avg $473); bears fundamental overvaluation at 16x rev / 300x earnings with collapsing auto sales and robotaxi revenues years away.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The universal reply, “ $TSLA is not a car company”  to my negative $TSLA post yesterday has emboldened my confidence in the bear case. \n\nFact: 86% of sales are from autos. Significant revenues (if any) from robotaxis and robots are YEARS away. The $TSLA bulls are chasing narrative instead of following fundamentals. \n\nI doubled my position again this morning at a price of $481. My average cost is now $473. \n\n$1.6T market cap, 16x revenues, $50 SOTP, 300x earnings for an auto company with collapsing sales and earnings. \n\nThe potential IPO of Waymo implies a valuation of a mere $30 per share for robotaxis.\n\nThe coming crash in $TSLA will produce the largest destruction of market capitalization in history IMHO. \n\nThe coming collapse will be epic.\n\n@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@abetterfuture42 Doubled my $TSLA short yesterday at $485. Average is now $465. https://t.co/JY0wlnFyAI", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0003296326001673844, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0003296326001673844, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003834976338493834, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0037556485266737605, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0035053437383264496, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003426015926506376, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.07350637232061918, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07350637232061918, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06125224520942507, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04756631429017033, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012254127111194113, "bench_c_p1w": -0.025940058030448854, "ret_p1m": -0.07424806138874351, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07424806138874351, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07222022359123703, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07449281251739803, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.002027837797506482, "bench_c_p1m": 0.000244751128654519, "ret_p3m": -0.2153893471520416, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2153893471520416, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1672851701847985, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11547271374786772, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04810417696724312, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0999166334041739, "ret_p6m": -0.17492790426408034, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17492790426408034, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.26231219525809335, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13255384206017795, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08738429099401301, "bench_c_p6m": -0.042374062203902385, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07424806138874351, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07222022359123703, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07449281251739803, "price_path": [-0.0927, -0.0869, -0.0838, -0.0534, -0.1018, -0.1145, -0.0662, -0.1078, -0.0962, -0.1027, -0.1481, -0.102, -0.1157, -0.1035, -0.1167, -0.095, -0.0782, -0.0882, -0.0957, -0.075, -0.1065, -0.0679, -0.0512, -0.0492, -0.0933, -0.0594, -0.0351, -0.0848, -0.0481, -0.0814, -0.1151, -0.0828, -0.0943, -0.1129, -0.1718, -0.167, -0.1576, -0.1734, -0.1677, -0.1858, -0.1943, -0.1393, -0.136, -0.1212, -0.1212, -0.1138, -0.1138, -0.1157, -0.0796, -0.0636, -0.0626, -0.0944, -0.0829, -0.0699, -0.0793, -0.0545, -0.0208, 0.0092, -0.0374, -0.0042, -0.0087, 0.0069, 0.0003, 0.0, 0.0, -0.021, -0.0531, -0.0638, -0.0735, -0.0735, -0.0975, -0.0695, -0.108, -0.1112, -0.1022, -0.0832, -0.0751, -0.0787, -0.0952, -0.0965, -0.0987, -0.0987, -0.1363, -0.1112, -0.0742, -0.0749, -0.1034, -0.1123, -0.1111, -0.1418, -0.1133, -0.131, -0.1307, -0.1636, -0.1817, -0.153, -0.1403, -0.124, -0.1177, -0.1408, -0.14, -0.14, -0.154, -0.1526, -0.1518, -0.1516, -0.1763, -0.1566, -0.1401, -0.1583, -0.1708, -0.1691, -0.1915, -0.1637, -0.1645, -0.1827, -0.1787, -0.1775, -0.1598, -0.1862, -0.1941, -0.1851, -0.1774, -0.1908, -0.2165, -0.2419, -0.2154, -0.2109, -0.2049, -0.2334, -0.2546, -0.2681, -0.2341, -0.2145, -0.2571, -0.2571, -0.2731, -0.2858, -0.2929, -0.288, -0.2811, -0.274, -0.2497, -0.1925, -0.1988, -0.1747, -0.1914, -0.2039, -0.2017, -0.2301, -0.2248, -0.2199, -0.2253, -0.232, -0.2138, -0.1948, -0.1914, -0.1978, -0.1786, -0.1516, -0.1175, -0.0832, -0.107, -0.0827, -0.0867, -0.1301, -0.1554, -0.1675, -0.1404, -0.1392, -0.1224, -0.1224, -0.1067, -0.0928, -0.0892, -0.1022, -0.1432, -0.127, -0.1271, -0.1379, -0.1945, -0.1575, -0.1828, -0.2139, -0.1777, -0.1627, -0.153, -0.1663, -0.1834, -0.1749]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2005462292151070930", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-29T02:14:04+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The current share price already discounts a massive improvement in profitability to the extent that it is well ahead of the fundamentals.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: share price already prices in massive profitability improvement, running well ahead of fundamentals.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@VolaarRide @APompliano @ericjackson @saylor @elonmusk @nikolatrevor I am well aware. The current share price already discounts a massive improvement in profitability to the extent that it is well ahead of the fundamentals.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @APompliano @ericjackson @saylor @elonmusk @nikolatrevor George, Kaz stopped taking balance sheet risk by owning tons of houses.\n\n$OPEN shifted to a software-driven model making money from fees and commissions by helping transactions happen, not by speculating on home prices.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "VolaarRide", "ret_m1d": 0.030874838341568456, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030874838341568456, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.027298439788826956, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03358214970316087, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0027073113615924127, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0017153051479765757, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0017153051479765757, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0029365187613416, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.000499915140248941, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0022152202882255168, "ret_p1w": 0.08404807107507395, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08404807107507395, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.08423700682621393, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.08897050737688317, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004922436301809219, "ret_p1m": -0.003430528505701913, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.003430528505701913, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.014537595666206382, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.01869021452852282, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015259686022820906, "ret_p3m": -0.15951969820051637, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15951969820051637, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09991626702736633, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.15781668741551236, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.001703010785004011, "ret_p6m": -0.27958835948058613, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.27958835948058613, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35173853396516086, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.39536105592990256, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11577269644931643, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.003430528505701913, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.014537595666206382, "alpha_c_stated": 0.01869021452852282, "price_path": [0.3825, 0.3739, 0.3911, 0.5918, 0.5935, 0.4563, 0.3962, 0.2985, 0.247, 0.3105, 0.2659, 0.2196, 0.2281, 0.2642, 0.1938, 0.1698, 0.2058, 0.3671, 0.3997, 0.3671, 0.3122, 0.259, 0.3328, 0.3019, 0.187, 0.2401, 0.1252, 0.1252, 0.3671, 0.4545, 0.6072, 0.4683, 0.3928, 0.3448, 0.2899, 0.1475, 0.0566, 0.1578, 0.319, 0.3276, 0.3345, 0.3345, 0.3208, 0.2247, 0.199, 0.1904, 0.3002, 0.2264, 0.2093, 0.271, 0.2007, 0.2093, 0.1252, 0.1098, 0.1544, 0.0497, 0.0772, 0.0909, 0.1012, 0.0755, 0.0772, 0.0772, 0.0309, 0.0, 0.0017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0412, 0.084, 0.1887, 0.0497, 0.1029, 0.2504, 0.2041, 0.1612, 0.1389, 0.0806, 0.1441, 0.1441, 0.0961, 0.1115, 0.1012, 0.0309, 0.0069, -0.0034, -0.012, -0.0429, -0.1166, -0.1732, -0.1201, -0.1424, -0.1938, -0.163, -0.1527, -0.1955, -0.1835, -0.2487, -0.2376, -0.2376, -0.2573, -0.2058, -0.2024, -0.1424, -0.1801, -0.1235, -0.1458, -0.072, -0.0703, -0.1338, -0.1475, -0.163, -0.1115, -0.1424, -0.1286, -0.1407, -0.0961, -0.1698, -0.1509, -0.1115, -0.0463, -0.0943, -0.1184, -0.1578, -0.1063, -0.1115, -0.1252, -0.1595, -0.1767, -0.2401, -0.1973, -0.2161, -0.187, -0.187, -0.2093, -0.2196, -0.2041, -0.2607, -0.259, -0.2521, -0.2264, -0.1732, -0.0961, -0.0926, -0.0823, -0.0652, -0.0686, -0.1046, -0.0549, -0.0755, -0.06, -0.0429, -0.0772, -0.0669, -0.1201, -0.1029, -0.0635, -0.0875, -0.1407, -0.1681, -0.1921, -0.2144, -0.2333, -0.2487, -0.2659, -0.2624, -0.2453, -0.2161, -0.223, -0.223, -0.2316, -0.1852, -0.1304, -0.1355, -0.0892, -0.072, -0.1647, -0.1509, -0.2419, -0.2607, -0.2556, -0.2316, -0.2333, -0.2384, -0.2093, -0.1852, -0.2367, -0.2333, -0.2333, -0.2659, -0.2796]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2000932276583170105", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-16T14:13:24+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA IS THE BIGGEST BUBBLE IN STOCK MARKET HISTORY. The losses will be epic.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Calls TSLA the biggest stock market bubble ever; epic losses ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA IS THE BIGGEST BUBBLE IN STOCK MARKET HISTORY. The losses will be epic.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Tesla realistically has zero path to profitability and likely to see $8-$10 billion dollar a year losses going forward. That is a very optimistic estimate if Tesla $TSLA can maintain its current marketshare in Europe and China. The more likely scenario is Tesla is priced out in", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.029741992281771434, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.029741992281771434, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03248185391440761, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.02810171795095684, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "bench_c_m1d": -0.001640274330814595, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04617456293730249, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04617456293730249, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03517096895390226, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.034610496716246386, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "bench_c_p1d": -0.011564066221056102, "ret_p1w": -0.008818501023025394, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.008818501023025394, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.025202826447226268, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.01277252021444919, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0039540191914237965, "ret_p1m": -0.10345389109707537, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10345389109707537, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.12338388248333632, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.10806532931954627, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004611438222470898, "ret_p3m": -0.20143706967461783, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20143706967461783, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1798968294073181, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1124491342958116, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "bench_c_p3m": -0.08898793537880623, "ret_p6m": -0.22105415094626424, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.22105415094626424, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.29572317649503876, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.15555213906400067, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "bench_c_p6m": -0.06550201188226357, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10345389109707537, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.12338388248333632, "alpha_c_stated": 0.10806532931954627, "price_path": [-0.1491, -0.1303, -0.1136, -0.1307, -0.0961, -0.1357, -0.101, -0.0953, -0.0922, -0.0621, -0.11, -0.1226, -0.0748, -0.1159, -0.1045, -0.1109, -0.1559, -0.1102, -0.1238, -0.1117, -0.1248, -0.1032, -0.0867, -0.0965, -0.1039, -0.0835, -0.1146, -0.0765, -0.0599, -0.0579, -0.1016, -0.068, -0.0439, -0.0931, -0.0568, -0.0898, -0.1232, -0.0911, -0.1026, -0.121, -0.1794, -0.1746, -0.1653, -0.1809, -0.1753, -0.1932, -0.2017, -0.1472, -0.1439, -0.1292, -0.1292, -0.1219, -0.1219, -0.1238, -0.0881, -0.0722, -0.0712, -0.1027, -0.0913, -0.0784, -0.0878, -0.0631, -0.0297, 0.0, -0.0462, -0.0133, -0.0177, -0.0023, -0.0088, -0.0091, -0.0091, -0.03, -0.0617, -0.0724, -0.082, -0.082, -0.1058, -0.078, -0.1162, -0.1194, -0.1104, -0.0916, -0.0835, -0.0871, -0.1035, -0.1047, -0.1069, -0.1069, -0.1442, -0.1193, -0.0827, -0.0833, -0.1116, -0.1204, -0.1193, -0.1497, -0.1214, -0.139, -0.1386, -0.1712, -0.1892, -0.1608, -0.1481, -0.132, -0.1258, -0.1486, -0.1479, -0.1479, -0.1618, -0.1604, -0.1596, -0.1593, -0.1838, -0.1643, -0.148, -0.166, -0.1783, -0.1767, -0.1989, -0.1713, -0.1721, -0.1901, -0.1862, -0.185, -0.1675, -0.1937, -0.2014, -0.1925, -0.185, -0.1982, -0.2237, -0.2489, -0.2226, -0.2181, -0.2122, -0.2404, -0.2614, -0.2748, -0.2411, -0.2217, -0.2639, -0.2639, -0.2798, -0.2924, -0.2993, -0.2945, -0.2877, -0.2806, -0.2566, -0.1999, -0.2061, -0.1822, -0.1988, -0.2112, -0.209, -0.2371, -0.2319, -0.227, -0.2324, -0.239, -0.221, -0.2022, -0.1988, -0.2052, -0.1861, -0.1594, -0.1256, -0.0916, -0.1152, -0.0911, -0.0951, -0.1381, -0.1631, -0.1751, -0.1482, -0.147, -0.1304, -0.1304, -0.1149, -0.1011, -0.0975, -0.1104, -0.1511, -0.135, -0.1351, -0.1458, -0.2018, -0.1652, -0.1903, -0.2211]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1984647942620250197", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-01T15:45:17+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will probably lose money in 4q. Deliveries will decline again for the third consecutive year in 2026. Not exactly what you call a growth company. 14x revenues and 200x earnings for a publicly traded science experiment.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: expects Q4 loss, third consecutive year of delivery declines in 2026, overvalued at 14x revenue / 200x earnings for a non-growth company.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THIS. $TSLA will probably lose money in 4q. Deliveries will decline again for the third consecutive year in 2026. Not exactly what you call a growth company. 14x revenues and 200x earnings for a publicly traded science experiment. Oh but what about the make believe FSD and the robots! @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @RealJimChanos @elonmusk", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "\"BYD's October vehicle sales down 12% from year earlier\"\n\nIf BYD is down that much YoY, I can't image how bad $TSLA did globally with all of its stale products.\n\nhttps://t.co/Vm0Y7ZY52N", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02521510276429828, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.02521510276429828, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02334196850247605, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015924507298338608, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.001873134261822229, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009290595465959672, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05147636612701911, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05147636612701911, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.039622728708138544, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.034877184106597126, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01185363741888057, "bench_c_p1d": -0.016599182020421988, "ret_p1w": -0.04940535126523138, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04940535126523138, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04662478391421643, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03610953855854504, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.002780567351014951, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013295812706686339, "ret_p1m": -0.08354507182515414, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08354507182515414, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0808962605886181, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.059843680641246455, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0026488112365360417, "bench_c_p1m": -0.023701391183907683, "ret_p3m": -0.11061767000174882, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11061767000174882, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12927714564843684, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11342689983758125, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.018659475646688017, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0028092298358324275, "ret_p6m": -0.19717319014086154, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.19717319014086154, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24459071175881575, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.16733929731943542, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.047417521617954206, "bench_c_p6m": -0.029833892821426122, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.11061767000174882, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.12927714564843684, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11342689983758125, "price_path": [-0.317, -0.3119, -0.2962, -0.2761, -0.2723, -0.2754, -0.2835, -0.2942, -0.2844, -0.2969, -0.3085, -0.3165, -0.2741, -0.26, -0.2492, -0.2536, -0.2613, -0.2872, -0.2872, -0.2968, -0.2867, -0.2772, -0.2509, -0.2604, -0.2592, -0.2574, -0.2126, -0.1546, -0.1245, -0.0998, -0.0908, -0.11, -0.0903, -0.0729, -0.0908, -0.0546, -0.096, -0.0597, -0.0537, -0.0505, -0.019, -0.0691, -0.0823, -0.0323, -0.0753, -0.0634, -0.0701, -0.1172, -0.0693, -0.0835, -0.0709, -0.0846, -0.062, -0.0447, -0.055, -0.0628, -0.0414, -0.074, -0.0341, -0.0167, -0.0146, -0.0604, -0.0252, 0.0, -0.0515, -0.0135, -0.048, -0.0829, -0.0494, -0.0614, -0.0806, -0.1417, -0.1367, -0.1269, -0.1433, -0.1375, -0.1562, -0.165, -0.108, -0.1046, -0.0892, -0.0892, -0.0816, -0.0816, -0.0835, -0.0462, -0.0295, -0.0285, -0.0615, -0.0495, -0.0361, -0.0459, -0.0201, 0.0148, 0.0459, -0.0024, 0.032, 0.0274, 0.0435, 0.0367, 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.0146, -0.0186, -0.0298, -0.0398, -0.0398, -0.0647, -0.0357, -0.0756, -0.0789, -0.0695, -0.0499, -0.0414, -0.0452, -0.0623, -0.0636, -0.0659, -0.0659, -0.1049, -0.0788, -0.0406, -0.0412, -0.0708, -0.08, -0.0788, -0.1106, -0.081, -0.0994, -0.0991, -0.1331, -0.1519, -0.1223, -0.109, -0.0921, -0.0856, -0.1095, -0.1087, -0.1087, -0.1233, -0.1218, -0.121, -0.1207, -0.1463, -0.1259, -0.1088, -0.1277, -0.1406, -0.1389, -0.1621, -0.1333, -0.1341, -0.153, -0.1488, -0.1476, -0.1293, -0.1566, -0.1648, -0.1555, -0.1475, -0.1614, -0.188, -0.2144, -0.1869, -0.1822, -0.176, -0.2055, -0.2275, -0.2415, -0.2063, -0.186, -0.2301, -0.2301, -0.2467, -0.2599, -0.2671, -0.2621, -0.255, -0.2476, -0.2224, -0.1632, -0.1697, -0.1447, -0.162, -0.175, -0.1726, -0.2021, -0.1966, -0.1915, -0.1972]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2000788895420571883", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-16T04:43:40+00:00", "symbol": "ABTC", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$ABTC has crashed 80% since I flagged as a short on 9/12 and is still overpriced IMHO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Still bearish ABTC; views it as overpriced despite 80% crash since initial short flag.", "resolved_tickers": ["ABTC"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@stackasaurus11 @EricTrump @ABTC $ABTC has crashed 80% since I flagged as a short on 9/12 and is still overpriced IMHO. https://t.co/BW64RJ7Pi5", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@EricTrump @ABTC cc @gnoble79", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "stackasaurus11", "ret_m1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.00640558294684368, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00640558294684368, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00018302473172915334, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00018302473172915334, "ret_p1w": 0.1272727522311463, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.1272727522311463, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.11088842680694544, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.10926884256847935, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01800390966266696, "ret_p1m": 0.06666667629974077, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.06666667629974077, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04673668491347982, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07217063277857949, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "bench_c_p1m": -0.005503956478838723, "ret_p3m": -0.36969698370871373, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.36969698370871373, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.348156743441414, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2675900298500966, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "bench_c_p3m": -0.10210695385861712, "ret_p6m": -0.5030303001841675, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5030303001841675, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.577699325732942, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.46719511770038336, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "bench_c_p6m": -0.035835182483784145, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.06666667629974077, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04673668491347982, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07217063277857949, "price_path": [3.5333, 3.3091, 3.3879, 3.2061, 3.2364, 3.0545, 2.9879, 3.0121, 3.0848, 3.3636, 3.3818, 3.2303, 3.3333, 3.1212, 3.1394, 2.9697, 2.6061, 2.6545, 2.4909, 2.3879, 2.0485, 1.8727, 2.0848, 1.9515, 1.7212, 2.0606, 2.4061, 2.6121, 2.4424, 2.3212, 2.1212, 2.0848, 1.9818, 1.8121, 1.903, 1.7515, 1.8121, 1.9636, 1.9758, 1.9879, 1.8727, 1.9455, 2.0606, 2.0727, 1.8667, 1.7758, 1.6848, 1.6606, 1.6061, 1.5455, 1.5455, 1.5697, 1.1697, 0.3273, 0.4485, 0.4667, 0.3515, 0.2242, 0.2424, 0.1758, 0.1091, 0.0788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0364, 0.0788, 0.1818, 0.1273, 0.1394, 0.1394, 0.1455, 0.097, 0.0424, 0.0303, 0.0303, 0.0788, 0.2242, 0.1939, 0.1576, 0.1576, 0.1091, 0.103, 0.1333, 0.0667, 0.0182, -0.0061, -0.0061, -0.0545, -0.0485, -0.0545, -0.0727, -0.0848, -0.0364, -0.0545, -0.0667, -0.0848, -0.1333, -0.1818, -0.2242, -0.3061, -0.2061, -0.2364, -0.2727, -0.303, -0.303, -0.3152, -0.3152, -0.3394, -0.3697, -0.3818, -0.3939, -0.4091, -0.3818, -0.3636, -0.3455, -0.3818, -0.3818, -0.3758, -0.303, -0.2909, -0.3394, -0.3333, -0.297, -0.3152, -0.3636, -0.3697, -0.3697, -0.3576, -0.3758, -0.3818, -0.4261, -0.4152, -0.4248, -0.4042, -0.4467, -0.4788, -0.5212, -0.44, -0.4436, -0.4491, -0.4491, -0.4636, -0.4715, -0.4158, -0.4291, -0.423, -0.4, -0.3758, -0.3333, -0.3152, -0.2121, -0.2364, -0.2485, -0.1879, -0.2364, -0.2485, -0.2667, -0.2909, -0.3091, -0.303, -0.2667, -0.2909, -0.2545, -0.2424, -0.297, -0.2788, -0.2788, -0.3091, -0.3212, -0.2909, -0.3273, -0.3758, -0.3818, -0.3273, -0.3152, -0.3273, -0.3273, -0.3455, -0.3515, -0.3636, -0.3152, -0.3455, -0.3964, -0.4339, -0.4461, -0.477, -0.4539, -0.483, -0.503]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1984748312512049485", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-01T22:24:07+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Consensus 2025 EPS estimates have collapsed from over $8 to under $2 in the last three years. The share price has nevertheless levitated. Divergence anyone? Mind the gap.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: EPS estimates collapsed ~75% while share price levitated — warns of a valuation gap that should close to the downside.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Consensus 2025 EPS estimates (white line) for $TSLA have collapsed from over $8 to under $2 in the last three years. The share price (blue line)    has nevertheless levitated. Divergence anyone? Mind the gap. https://t.co/zunnbKQaOr", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02521510276429828, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.02521510276429828, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02334196850247605, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015924507298338608, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.001873134261822229, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009290595465959672, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05147636612701911, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05147636612701911, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.039622728708138544, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.034877184106597126, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01185363741888057, "bench_c_p1d": -0.016599182020421988, "ret_p1w": -0.04940535126523138, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04940535126523138, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04662478391421643, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03610953855854504, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.002780567351014951, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013295812706686339, "ret_p1m": -0.08354507182515414, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08354507182515414, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0808962605886181, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.059843680641246455, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0026488112365360417, "bench_c_p1m": -0.023701391183907683, "ret_p3m": -0.11061767000174882, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11061767000174882, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12927714564843684, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11342689983758125, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.018659475646688017, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0028092298358324275, "ret_p6m": -0.19717319014086154, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.19717319014086154, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24459071175881575, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.16733929731943542, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.047417521617954206, "bench_c_p6m": -0.029833892821426122, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08354507182515414, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0808962605886181, "alpha_c_stated": 0.059843680641246455, "price_path": [-0.317, -0.3119, -0.2962, -0.2761, -0.2723, -0.2754, -0.2835, -0.2942, -0.2844, -0.2969, -0.3085, -0.3165, -0.2741, -0.26, -0.2492, -0.2536, -0.2613, -0.2872, -0.2872, -0.2968, -0.2867, -0.2772, -0.2509, -0.2604, -0.2592, -0.2574, -0.2126, -0.1546, -0.1245, -0.0998, -0.0908, -0.11, -0.0903, -0.0729, -0.0908, -0.0546, -0.096, -0.0597, -0.0537, -0.0505, -0.019, -0.0691, -0.0823, -0.0323, -0.0753, -0.0634, -0.0701, -0.1172, -0.0693, -0.0835, -0.0709, -0.0846, -0.062, -0.0447, -0.055, -0.0628, -0.0414, -0.074, -0.0341, -0.0167, -0.0146, -0.0604, -0.0252, 0.0, -0.0515, -0.0135, -0.048, -0.0829, -0.0494, -0.0614, -0.0806, -0.1417, -0.1367, -0.1269, -0.1433, -0.1375, -0.1562, -0.165, -0.108, -0.1046, -0.0892, -0.0892, -0.0816, -0.0816, -0.0835, -0.0462, -0.0295, -0.0285, -0.0615, -0.0495, -0.0361, -0.0459, -0.0201, 0.0148, 0.0459, -0.0024, 0.032, 0.0274, 0.0435, 0.0367, 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.0146, -0.0186, -0.0298, -0.0398, -0.0398, -0.0647, -0.0357, -0.0756, -0.0789, -0.0695, -0.0499, -0.0414, -0.0452, -0.0623, -0.0636, -0.0659, -0.0659, -0.1049, -0.0788, -0.0406, -0.0412, -0.0708, -0.08, -0.0788, -0.1106, -0.081, -0.0994, -0.0991, -0.1331, -0.1519, -0.1223, -0.109, -0.0921, -0.0856, -0.1095, -0.1087, -0.1087, -0.1233, -0.1218, -0.121, -0.1207, -0.1463, -0.1259, -0.1088, -0.1277, -0.1406, -0.1389, -0.1621, -0.1333, -0.1341, -0.153, -0.1488, -0.1476, -0.1293, -0.1566, -0.1648, -0.1555, -0.1475, -0.1614, -0.188, -0.2144, -0.1869, -0.1822, -0.176, -0.2055, -0.2275, -0.2415, -0.2063, -0.186, -0.2301, -0.2301, -0.2467, -0.2599, -0.2671, -0.2621, -0.255, -0.2476, -0.2224, -0.1632, -0.1697, -0.1447, -0.162, -0.175, -0.1726, -0.2021, -0.1966, -0.1915, -0.1972]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1986509619594993978", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T19:02:55+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The bottom is about to fall out of $OPEN. And if it doesn't, SELL. EITHER way, sell it up or down. LOOK OUT BELOW!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bearish OPEN: sell into any pop or decline; 19x revenue, 86-cent book value make it uninvestable.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The bottom is about to fall out of  $OPEN .\nIt is doubtful that anything of substance will be announced today that can fix this broken company. \nIf the stock pops on some  hype - SELL.\nAnd if it doesn’t, SELL.\nEITHER way, sell it up or down.\nInvestors are just hanging on, hoping for a Hail Mary.\nAnd once the chart breaks, look out below.\nAt 19x revenues (same as gross profits for $OPEN)\nand with a book value of only 86 cents per share,\nLOOK OUT BELOW! @ericjackson @m3_melody @dayetweets @Realtor_Stocks @iv2171 @UnicusResearch @realsteveeisman @Seawolfcap", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.10213415886251664, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10213415886251664, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.09128851999698817, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09722370075693876, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010845638865528473, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004910458105577886, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.013258015732235062, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013258015732235062, "ret_p1w": 0.3048781241284184, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.3048781241284184, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.30229726750913777, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.30242294315233065, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002580856619280647, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0024551809760877674, "ret_p1m": 0.08993904843509815, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08993904843509815, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0669945711432578, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0835555202052285, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02294447729184035, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0063835282298696505, "ret_p3m": -0.21798778061158286, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.21798778061158286, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.24970061521127507, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.23090233639055624, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03171283459969221, "bench_c_p3m": 0.01291455577897338, "ret_p6m": -0.17073169136104083, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17073169136104083, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.25195279432354956, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.27815908015770785, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08122110296250873, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10742738879666702, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.08993904843509815, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0669945711432578, "alpha_c_stated": -0.0835555202052285, "price_path": [-0.6479, -0.6235, -0.6311, -0.5366, -0.5168, -0.4238, -0.4482, -0.5091, -0.4512, -0.2363, -0.3079, -0.2835, -0.3872, -0.3491, -0.3216, -0.3216, -0.2241, -0.218, -0.0915, 0.0137, -0.0793, -0.0686, -0.1067, 0.6037, 0.3826, 0.4474, 0.3598, 0.5564, 0.5152, 0.4588, 0.2774, 0.0808, 0.2546, 0.3857, 0.343, 0.25, 0.2149, 0.2287, 0.221, 0.2363, 0.4146, 0.4162, 0.2942, 0.2409, 0.154, 0.1082, 0.1646, 0.125, 0.0838, 0.0915, 0.1235, 0.061, 0.0396, 0.0716, 0.2149, 0.2439, 0.2149, 0.1662, 0.1189, 0.1845, 0.157, 0.0549, 0.1021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2149, 0.2927, 0.4284, 0.3049, 0.2378, 0.1951, 0.1463, 0.0198, -0.061, 0.029, 0.1723, 0.1799, 0.186, 0.186, 0.1738, 0.0884, 0.0655, 0.0579, 0.1555, 0.0899, 0.0747, 0.1296, 0.0671, 0.0747, 0.0, -0.0137, 0.0259, -0.0671, -0.0427, -0.0305, -0.0213, -0.0442, -0.0427, -0.0427, -0.0838, -0.1113, -0.1098, -0.1113, -0.1113, -0.0747, -0.0366, 0.0564, -0.0671, -0.0198, 0.1113, 0.0701, 0.032, 0.0122, -0.0396, 0.0168, 0.0168, -0.0259, -0.0122, -0.0213, -0.0838, -0.1052, -0.1143, -0.122, -0.1494, -0.2149, -0.2652, -0.218, -0.2378, -0.2835, -0.2561, -0.247, -0.2851, -0.2744, -0.3323, -0.3224, -0.3224, -0.3399, -0.2942, -0.2912, -0.2378, -0.2713, -0.221, -0.2409, -0.1753, -0.1738, -0.2302, -0.2424, -0.2561, -0.2104, -0.2378, -0.2256, -0.2363, -0.1966, -0.2622, -0.2454, -0.2104, -0.1524, -0.1951, -0.2165, -0.2515, -0.2058, -0.2104, -0.2226, -0.253, -0.2683, -0.3247, -0.2866, -0.3034, -0.2774, -0.2774, -0.2973, -0.3064, -0.2927, -0.343, -0.3415, -0.3354, -0.3125, -0.2652, -0.1966, -0.1936, -0.1845, -0.1692, -0.1723, -0.2043, -0.1601, -0.1784, -0.1646, -0.1494, -0.1799, -0.1707]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1967719306541642095", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-15T22:36:55+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Paying 22x net revenues for a 3% margin business (that is if they are lucky and everything goes right one can't even justify the present $9 stock price) - the numbers do not make sense. You will need more than hand waving, lies, insults, Drake and analytical malpractice to get to $82.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish Opendoor: 22x revenue for a 3% margin business is unjustifiable; $9 price can't be justified let alone $82 target.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Eric, tell us more about that new $OPEN  business model and how they are going to generate the margins you foresee. We are all waiting. They are in a fiercely competitive, low margin business. Oh yes, and please note my earlier post where I displayed your comparison of $OPEN to $UBER. Another lie from you! Paying 22x net revenues for a 3% margin business (that is if they are lucky and everything goes right one can’t even justify the present $9 stock price) - the numbers do not make sense. You will need more than hand waving, lies, insults, Drake and analytical malpractice to get to $82. ericjackson @Realtor_Stocks @UnicusResearch @m3_melody", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.06446186147388877, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.06446186147388877, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.06308307809453995, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05851663068432944, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0013787833793488247, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00594523078955933, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.14461882856720698, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.14461882856720698, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.14586109874067976, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.14509443952270074, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012422701734727815, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047561095549375487, "ret_p1w": -0.20515694036477827, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.20515694036477827, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.21280663551021906, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.21159129591756443, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0076496951454407824, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006434355552786153, "ret_p1m": -0.1726457341570855, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1726457341570855, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.18327328723454195, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17668382883031786, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.010627553077456442, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004038094673232351, "ret_p3m": -0.264574003736436, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.264574003736436, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.30040769175476545, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.24105491060302697, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.035833688018329424, "bench_c_p3m": -0.023519093133409052, "ret_p6m": -0.409192832303643, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.409192832303643, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.43981283788385406, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4365585745007329, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.03062000558021105, "bench_c_p6m": 0.02736574219708987, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1726457341570855, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.18327328723454195, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17668382883031786, "price_path": [-0.935, -0.94, -0.9406, -0.9383, -0.9426, -0.9397, -0.9374, -0.9402, -0.9367, -0.9365, -0.9316, -0.9316, -0.9298, -0.9179, -0.9174, -0.901, -0.9127, -0.899, -0.8834, -0.833, -0.815, -0.7478, -0.6401, -0.6771, -0.7433, -0.7287, -0.7152, -0.7377, -0.7702, -0.7679, -0.7937, -0.7646, -0.7242, -0.7175, -0.787, -0.7926, -0.7814, -0.741, -0.7231, -0.7287, -0.6592, -0.6446, -0.5762, -0.5942, -0.639, -0.5964, -0.4383, -0.491, -0.4731, -0.5493, -0.5213, -0.5011, -0.5011, -0.4294, -0.4249, -0.3318, -0.2545, -0.3229, -0.315, -0.343, 0.1794, 0.0168, 0.0645, 0.0, 0.1446, 0.1143, 0.0729, -0.0605, -0.2052, -0.0774, 0.0191, -0.0123, -0.0807, -0.1065, -0.0964, -0.102, -0.0908, 0.0404, 0.0415, -0.0482, -0.0874, -0.1513, -0.185, -0.1435, -0.1726, -0.2029, -0.1973, -0.1738, -0.2197, -0.2354, -0.2119, -0.1065, -0.0852, -0.1065, -0.1424, -0.1771, -0.1289, -0.1491, -0.2242, -0.1895, -0.2646, -0.2646, -0.1065, -0.0493, 0.0504, -0.0404, -0.0897, -0.1211, -0.157, -0.25, -0.3094, -0.2433, -0.1379, -0.1323, -0.1278, -0.1278, -0.1368, -0.1996, -0.2164, -0.222, -0.1502, -0.1984, -0.2096, -0.1693, -0.2152, -0.2096, -0.2646, -0.2747, -0.2455, -0.3139, -0.296, -0.287, -0.2803, -0.2971, -0.296, -0.296, -0.3262, -0.3464, -0.3453, -0.3464, -0.3464, -0.3195, -0.2915, -0.2231, -0.3139, -0.2791, -0.1827, -0.213, -0.241, -0.2556, -0.2937, -0.2522, -0.2522, -0.2836, -0.2735, -0.2803, -0.3262, -0.3419, -0.3487, -0.3543, -0.3744, -0.4226, -0.4596, -0.4249, -0.4395, -0.4731, -0.4529, -0.4462, -0.4742, -0.4664, -0.509, -0.5017, -0.5017, -0.5146, -0.4809, -0.4787, -0.4395, -0.4641, -0.4271, -0.4417, -0.3935, -0.3924, -0.4339, -0.4428, -0.4529, -0.4193, -0.4395, -0.4305, -0.4383, -0.4092]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1969486960575070452", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-20T19:40:57+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Run, don't walk as fast as possible from $OPEN . What a load of garbage. Total clown show.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisive avoid/sell call on OPEN; author calls it garbage and a clown show, mocking $315 price target.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Run, don’t walk as fast as possible from $OPEN . What a load of garbage. \nTotal clown show. Tell me more about that 82, no wait, $315 price target @ericjackson https://t.co/42U9D1q07m\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/c0wssVhqlY\n\n---\n\nREAD THIS. $OPEN\n\nhttps://t.co/Q9JR81syh4", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.14200472125681984, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.14200472125681984, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.14671349317757754, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.1452923882153393, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004708771920757693, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003287666958519453, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.1539379408396454, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.1539379408396454, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.14849437790242304, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.1618573451141293, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005443562937222368, "bench_c_p1d": 0.007919404274483899, "ret_p1w": -0.02147974972763944, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02147974972763944, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01674098445340888, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.02843919773116721, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.004738765274230561, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006959448003527768, "ret_p1m": -0.16945108077587212, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.16945108077587212, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.17612427891824078, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.18576977347595636, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.006673198142368664, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016318692700084236, "ret_p3m": -0.2505966439085988, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2505966439085988, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2650377514514749, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22203893168345135, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.014441107542876086, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02855771222514747, "ret_p6m": -0.3365155290155407, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3365155290155407, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.34541128079386973, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3729179279475777, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.00889575177832902, "bench_c_p6m": 0.036402398932037006, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.16945108077587212, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.17612427891824078, "alpha_c_stated": 0.18576977347595636, "price_path": [-0.9389, -0.9358, -0.9334, -0.9364, -0.9326, -0.9325, -0.9272, -0.9272, -0.9253, -0.9126, -0.9121, -0.8946, -0.907, -0.8925, -0.8759, -0.8222, -0.8031, -0.7315, -0.6169, -0.6563, -0.7267, -0.7112, -0.6969, -0.7208, -0.7554, -0.753, -0.7804, -0.7494, -0.7064, -0.6993, -0.7733, -0.7792, -0.7673, -0.7243, -0.7053, -0.7112, -0.6372, -0.6217, -0.5489, -0.568, -0.6158, -0.5704, -0.4021, -0.4582, -0.4391, -0.5203, -0.4905, -0.469, -0.469, -0.3926, -0.3878, -0.2888, -0.2064, -0.2792, -0.2709, -0.3007, 0.2554, 0.0823, 0.1331, 0.0644, 0.2184, 0.1862, 0.142, 0.0, -0.1539, -0.0179, 0.0847, 0.0513, -0.0215, -0.0489, -0.0382, -0.0442, -0.0322, 0.1074, 0.1086, 0.0131, -0.0286, -0.0967, -0.1325, -0.0883, -0.1193, -0.1516, -0.1456, -0.1205, -0.1695, -0.1862, -0.1611, -0.0489, -0.0263, -0.0489, -0.0871, -0.1241, -0.0728, -0.0943, -0.1742, -0.1372, -0.2172, -0.2172, -0.0489, 0.0119, 0.1181, 0.0215, -0.031, -0.0644, -0.1026, -0.2017, -0.2649, -0.1945, -0.0823, -0.0764, -0.0716, -0.0716, -0.0811, -0.148, -0.1659, -0.1718, -0.0955, -0.1468, -0.1587, -0.1158, -0.1647, -0.1587, -0.2172, -0.2279, -0.1969, -0.2697, -0.2506, -0.2411, -0.2339, -0.2518, -0.2506, -0.2506, -0.2828, -0.3043, -0.3031, -0.3043, -0.3043, -0.2757, -0.2458, -0.173, -0.2697, -0.2327, -0.1301, -0.1623, -0.1921, -0.2076, -0.2482, -0.2041, -0.2041, -0.2375, -0.2267, -0.2339, -0.2828, -0.2995, -0.3067, -0.3126, -0.3341, -0.3854, -0.4248, -0.3878, -0.4033, -0.4391, -0.4177, -0.4105, -0.4403, -0.432, -0.4773, -0.4696, -0.4696, -0.4833, -0.4475, -0.4451, -0.4033, -0.4296, -0.3902, -0.4057, -0.3544, -0.3532, -0.3974, -0.4069, -0.4177, -0.3819, -0.4033, -0.3938, -0.4021, -0.3711, -0.4224, -0.4093, -0.3819, -0.3365]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1989007257024016795", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-13T16:27:38+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "sales and earnings are collapsing. 14x revenues and $1.4T supported only by lies/promises of robotaxis, AI and robots", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: $9 cumulative lifetime profit, collapsing sales/earnings, $1.4T valuation built on unfulfilled promises of robotaxis/AI/robots.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA has earned $9 of cumulative profits since inception. NINE DOLLARS!!!\n\nLET THAT SINK IN.\n\nSo much for the $TSLA record. \nAs to the future, consider  that sales and earnings are collapsing. \n14x revenues and $1.4T supported only by lies/promises of robotaxis, AI and robots. \n\nFrom the same guy @elonmusk who LIED  about Tesla Cybertrucks , Tesla Semis, The Boring Company and Neuralink. \n\nWhat could possibly go wrong? \n\nSerious investors discuss fundamentals. Others instead focus on the stock price. \nI will respond to the former, and block the ladder.\n\n@GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$TSLA bulls say it doesn’t matter that TSLA Oct global volumes are down -30-35% YoY, since the business is transitioning to unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots. That’s a fool’s narrative with 70%+ TSLA profits from EVs. \n\nWith EVs, TSLA had first mover advantage and clearly https://t.co/tSJTv4LC18", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.07117096585529392, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07117096585529392, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05429705540413221, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04556751172725604, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01687391045116171, "bench_c_m1d": 0.025603454128037884, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005870832424868633, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.005870832424868633, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006034656798180937, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010655352367051063, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0001638243733123046, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00478451994218243, "ret_p1w": -0.016816287500356797, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.016816287500356797, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.012214691789367071, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.029907879155392614, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02903097928972387, "bench_c_p1w": -0.04672416665574941, "ret_p1m": 0.14171994976165325, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.14171994976165325, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12725651945509653, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10120278333126165, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.014463430306556724, "bench_c_p1m": 0.040517166430391605, "ret_p3m": 0.057762635351106706, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.057762635351106706, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02484034643615618, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03565487408324852, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.032922288914950526, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022107761267858184, "ret_p6m": 0.06557381156125741, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.06557381156125741, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.03825924838042338, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.025227747694347435, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1038330599416808, "bench_c_p6m": 0.040346063866909976, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.14171994976165325, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.12725651945509653, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10120278333126165, "price_path": [-0.1662, -0.1808, -0.1943, -0.2037, -0.1542, -0.1378, -0.1252, -0.1303, -0.1393, -0.1695, -0.1695, -0.1807, -0.1689, -0.1579, -0.1272, -0.1383, -0.1369, -0.1348, -0.0825, -0.0151, 0.02, 0.0488, 0.0594, 0.037, 0.0599, 0.0802, 0.0594, 0.1015, 0.0532, 0.0955, 0.1025, 0.1063, 0.143, 0.0846, 0.0693, 0.1275, 0.0774, 0.0913, 0.0835, 0.0286, 0.0844, 0.0678, 0.0825, 0.0666, 0.0928, 0.113, 0.101, 0.092, 0.1169, 0.0789, 0.1255, 0.1457, 0.1481, 0.0948, 0.1357, 0.1651, 0.1052, 0.1495, 0.1093, 0.0685, 0.1076, 0.0936, 0.0712, 0.0, 0.0059, 0.0172, -0.0018, 0.005, -0.0168, -0.0271, 0.0393, 0.0433, 0.0612, 0.0612, 0.0701, 0.07, 0.0678, 0.1113, 0.1307, 0.1319, 0.0935, 0.1074, 0.123, 0.1117, 0.1417, 0.1824, 0.2186, 0.1624, 0.2024, 0.197, 0.2158, 0.2079, 0.2075, 0.2075, 0.1821, 0.1434, 0.1305, 0.1187, 0.1187, 0.0898, 0.1236, 0.077, 0.0732, 0.0841, 0.107, 0.1168, 0.1125, 0.0926, 0.091, 0.0883, 0.0883, 0.0429, 0.0733, 0.1178, 0.1171, 0.0826, 0.0719, 0.0733, 0.0362, 0.0707, 0.0493, 0.0497, 0.01, -0.0119, 0.0227, 0.0381, 0.0578, 0.0654, 0.0375, 0.0384, 0.0384, 0.0215, 0.0232, 0.0242, 0.0245, -0.0054, 0.0184, 0.0383, 0.0164, 0.0013, 0.0033, -0.0238, 0.0098, 0.0089, -0.0131, -0.0082, -0.0068, 0.0145, -0.0174, -0.0268, -0.016, -0.0068, -0.0229, -0.054, -0.0847, -0.0526, -0.0472, -0.0399, -0.0743, -0.0999, -0.1162, -0.0752, -0.0516, -0.103, -0.103, -0.1223, -0.1377, -0.1461, -0.1402, -0.1319, -0.1233, -0.094, -0.025, -0.0326, -0.0034, -0.0236, -0.0387, -0.036, -0.0703, -0.0639, -0.058, -0.0646, -0.0726, -0.0506, -0.0278, -0.0236, -0.0314, -0.0081, 0.0244, 0.0656]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2004215818750701701", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-25T15:41:02+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is just an ex growth auto company facing collapsing sales and earnings. 16x revenues and 300x collapsing earnings; sounds about right", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: robotaxi/Optimus unproven, collapsing sales/earnings, 16x revenue and 300x earnings multiples unjustified.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Chadwhitlock I cite facts. You cling to narratives.\n\nWake me up when $TSLA starts generating any money from robotaxis and Optimus. Until then, $TSLA is just an ex growth auto company facing collapsing sales and earnings. 16x revenues and 300x collapsing earnings; sounds about right.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Ah yes, the classic “Tesla is only a car company” argument — usually delivered right before someone proudly announces they doubled down at $481 while calling everyone else delusional.\n\nLet’s clear a few things up.\n\nFirst, saying “86% of sales are autos” as if that’s some kind of", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Chadwhitlock", "ret_m1d": 0.021486124292644515, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.021486124292644515, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021384704342229277, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01706180290772985, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010141995041523799, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0044243213849146645, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03272372674735757, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03272372674735757, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.029160073239862805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.022891622510734844, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0035636535074947684, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00983210423662273, "ret_p1w": -0.07811611129542784, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07811611129542784, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06777287631722473, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.047800582087406784, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010343234978203109, "bench_c_p1w": -0.030315529208021053, "ret_p1m": -0.08415579037630527, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0863679196883711, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.003505699250114569, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0022121293120658247, "ret_p3m": -0.1877985432687609, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1877985432687609, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.14188259400824654, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09687216461676584, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.045915949260514344, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09092637865199504, "ret_p6m": -0.14760414631636987, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14760414631636987, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23167639643130056, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.09312144798931499, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08407225011493069, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05448269832705488, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0863679196883711, "price_path": [-0.0641, -0.0331, -0.0825, -0.0955, -0.0462, -0.0886, -0.0768, -0.0834, -0.1298, -0.0827, -0.0967, -0.0843, -0.0977, -0.0755, -0.0584, -0.0686, -0.0762, -0.0552, -0.0873, -0.0479, -0.0308, -0.0288, -0.0738, -0.0392, -0.0144, -0.0651, -0.0276, -0.0616, -0.0961, -0.063, -0.0749, -0.0938, -0.154, -0.1491, -0.1395, -0.1556, -0.1498, -0.1683, -0.177, -0.1208, -0.1174, -0.1023, -0.1023, -0.0947, -0.0948, -0.0967, -0.0599, -0.0435, -0.0425, -0.0749, -0.0632, -0.05, -0.0596, -0.0342, 0.0003, 0.0309, -0.0167, 0.0172, 0.0126, 0.0285, 0.0218, 0.0215, 0.0215, 0.0, -0.0327, -0.0437, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0781, -0.0495, -0.0889, -0.0921, -0.0829, -0.0635, -0.0552, -0.0589, -0.0757, -0.0771, -0.0793, -0.0793, -0.1177, -0.0921, -0.0544, -0.055, -0.0842, -0.0932, -0.092, -0.1234, -0.0942, -0.1123, -0.112, -0.1456, -0.1641, -0.1349, -0.1218, -0.1052, -0.0987, -0.1223, -0.1215, -0.1215, -0.1359, -0.1344, -0.1336, -0.1334, -0.1586, -0.1385, -0.1216, -0.1402, -0.1529, -0.1512, -0.1742, -0.1457, -0.1466, -0.1651, -0.161, -0.1598, -0.1418, -0.1687, -0.1768, -0.1676, -0.1598, -0.1734, -0.1997, -0.2257, -0.1985, -0.1939, -0.1878, -0.2169, -0.2386, -0.2523, -0.2177, -0.1977, -0.2412, -0.2412, -0.2575, -0.2705, -0.2777, -0.2727, -0.2657, -0.2584, -0.2336, -0.1752, -0.1816, -0.1569, -0.174, -0.1868, -0.1845, -0.2135, -0.2081, -0.2031, -0.2087, -0.2155, -0.1969, -0.1776, -0.174, -0.1806, -0.1609, -0.1334, -0.0986, -0.0635, -0.0878, -0.063, -0.0671, -0.1114, -0.1372, -0.1496, -0.1219, -0.1207, -0.1035, -0.1035, -0.0875, -0.0733, -0.0696, -0.0829, -0.1248, -0.1083, -0.1084, -0.1194, -0.1772, -0.1394, -0.1652, -0.197, -0.16, -0.1447, -0.1348, -0.1484, -0.1658, -0.1572, -0.1572, -0.1476]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1983608088444989771", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-29T18:53:16+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "On a pure valuation basis vs the sector, $OPEN should be around $1.50. Color me skeptical about trying to fix a company that has lost money ever single year, good times and bad.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: sector-relative valuation implies ~$1.50 price target; skeptical the company can be fixed given persistent losses.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@BradTranMD On a pure valuation basis vs the sector, $OPEN should be around $1.50. Color me skeptical about trying to fix a company that has lost money ever single year, good times and bad.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Appreciate the feedback George what about innovations, AI pricing of homes, increasing unit economics , overhead reductions, growth hacking, Kaz new CEO, return to office for employees, Rabois, and Wu coming back.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "DiamondHandsDoc", "ret_m1d": 0.041830024945751276, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.041830024945751276, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04231007545401211, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013785744716251491, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00048005050826083195, "bench_c_m1d": 0.028044280229499785, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04052286783202341, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04052286783202341, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02952485876137867, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.046180877888459926, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.010998009070644743, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005658010056436513, "ret_p1w": -0.05490197007295239, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05490197007295239, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.040630628909239075, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06179008284701226, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.014271341163713314, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0068881127740598735, "ret_p1m": 0.01699347880003832, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.01699347880003832, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02820975775862411, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0031787413609867254, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.01121627895858579, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020172220161025045, "ret_p3m": -0.2326797630873566, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2326797630873566, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.24342619775885688, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2577841479199049, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.010746434671500271, "bench_c_p3m": 0.025104384832548288, "ret_p6m": -0.3176470947558946, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3176470947558946, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.354153225919445, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.41824084475890533, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.03650613116355039, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10059375000301074, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.01699347880003832, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02820975775862411, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0031787413609867254, "price_path": [-0.7255, -0.6784, -0.6706, -0.7516, -0.7582, -0.7451, -0.698, -0.6771, -0.6837, -0.6026, -0.5856, -0.5059, -0.5268, -0.5791, -0.5294, -0.3451, -0.4065, -0.3856, -0.4745, -0.4418, -0.4183, -0.4183, -0.3346, -0.3294, -0.2209, -0.1307, -0.2105, -0.2013, -0.234, 0.3752, 0.1856, 0.2412, 0.166, 0.3346, 0.2993, 0.251, 0.0954, -0.0732, 0.0758, 0.1882, 0.1516, 0.0719, 0.0418, 0.0536, 0.0471, 0.0601, 0.2131, 0.2144, 0.1098, 0.0641, -0.0105, -0.0497, -0.0013, -0.0353, -0.0706, -0.0641, -0.0366, -0.0902, -0.1085, -0.081, 0.0418, 0.0667, 0.0418, 0.0, -0.0405, 0.0157, -0.0078, -0.0954, -0.0549, -0.1425, -0.1425, 0.0418, 0.1085, 0.2248, 0.119, 0.0614, 0.0248, -0.017, -0.1255, -0.1948, -0.1176, 0.0052, 0.0118, 0.017, 0.017, 0.0065, -0.0667, -0.0863, -0.0928, -0.0092, -0.0654, -0.0784, -0.0314, -0.085, -0.0784, -0.1425, -0.1542, -0.1203, -0.2, -0.1791, -0.1686, -0.1608, -0.1804, -0.1791, -0.1791, -0.2144, -0.2379, -0.2366, -0.2379, -0.2379, -0.2065, -0.1739, -0.0941, -0.2, -0.1595, -0.0471, -0.0824, -0.115, -0.132, -0.1765, -0.1281, -0.1281, -0.1647, -0.1529, -0.1608, -0.2144, -0.2327, -0.2405, -0.2471, -0.2706, -0.3268, -0.3699, -0.3294, -0.3464, -0.3856, -0.3621, -0.3542, -0.3869, -0.3778, -0.4275, -0.419, -0.419, -0.434, -0.3948, -0.3922, -0.3464, -0.3752, -0.332, -0.349, -0.2928, -0.2915, -0.3399, -0.3503, -0.3621, -0.3229, -0.3464, -0.3359, -0.3451, -0.3111, -0.3673, -0.3529, -0.3229, -0.2732, -0.3098, -0.3281, -0.3582, -0.319, -0.3229, -0.3333, -0.3595, -0.3725, -0.4209, -0.3882, -0.4026, -0.3804, -0.3804, -0.3974, -0.4052, -0.3935, -0.4366, -0.4353, -0.4301, -0.4105, -0.3699, -0.3111, -0.3085, -0.3007, -0.2876, -0.2902, -0.3176]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1966875122444464420", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-13T14:42:26+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is a wildly overpriced stock in a very competitive, low margin industry", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: wildly overpriced in a competitive, low-margin industry.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@ChartingU Well said. I also believe that $OPEN is a wildly overpriced stock  in a very competitive, low margin industry. That can all be true at the same time.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Unfortunately or not, it's not about a company's fundamentals or long term success for these meme stocks. I'm old school like you but we must learn to accept the recent 'democratization of retail traders' phenomenon whose understanding and utilization of dealer exposure combined", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "ChartingU", "ret_m1d": -0.04476042083805021, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04476042083805021, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.039464838765678634, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.045942607545745084, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005295582072371574, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0011821867076948767, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.060558169162239994, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.060558169162239994, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.059181284208979945, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0546480752450067, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0013768849532600491, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0059100939172332945, "ret_p1w": -0.11743020374481139, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11743020374481139, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.12920011437334367, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.11005543721782352, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011769910628532276, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007374766526987875, "ret_p1m": -0.19536598645933112, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17917743588908375, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.00477530518646585, "bench_c_p1m": -0.016188550570247373, "ret_p3m": -0.2575039204100267, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2575039204100267, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.30315420208972554, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22940478278500354, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04565028167969887, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02809913762502314, "ret_p6m": -0.4723538399930335, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4723538399930335, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5028482094803816, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5059291739360562, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.030494369487348072, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0335753339430227, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17917743588908375, "price_path": [-0.9389, -0.9389, -0.9437, -0.9442, -0.9421, -0.9461, -0.9433, -0.9412, -0.9439, -0.9405, -0.9404, -0.9358, -0.9358, -0.9341, -0.9229, -0.9224, -0.907, -0.918, -0.9051, -0.8905, -0.8431, -0.8262, -0.763, -0.6619, -0.6967, -0.7588, -0.7451, -0.7325, -0.7536, -0.7841, -0.782, -0.8062, -0.7788, -0.7409, -0.7346, -0.7999, -0.8052, -0.7946, -0.7567, -0.7399, -0.7451, -0.6798, -0.6661, -0.6019, -0.6187, -0.6609, -0.6209, -0.4724, -0.5219, -0.505, -0.5766, -0.5503, -0.5313, -0.5313, -0.4639, -0.4597, -0.3723, -0.2996, -0.3639, -0.3565, -0.3828, 0.108, -0.0448, 0.0, -0.0606, 0.0753, 0.0469, 0.0079, -0.1174, -0.2533, -0.1332, -0.0427, -0.0721, -0.1364, -0.1606, -0.1511, -0.1564, -0.1459, -0.0226, -0.0216, -0.1058, -0.1427, -0.2027, -0.2343, -0.1954, -0.2227, -0.2512, -0.2459, -0.2238, -0.267, -0.2817, -0.2596, -0.1606, -0.1406, -0.1606, -0.1943, -0.227, -0.1817, -0.2006, -0.2712, -0.2385, -0.3091, -0.3091, -0.1606, -0.1069, -0.0132, -0.0985, -0.1448, -0.1743, -0.208, -0.2954, -0.3512, -0.2891, -0.1901, -0.1848, -0.1806, -0.1806, -0.189, -0.248, -0.2638, -0.2691, -0.2017, -0.247, -0.2575, -0.2196, -0.2628, -0.2575, -0.3091, -0.3186, -0.2912, -0.3555, -0.3386, -0.3302, -0.3239, -0.3397, -0.3386, -0.3386, -0.367, -0.386, -0.3849, -0.386, -0.386, -0.3607, -0.3344, -0.2701, -0.3555, -0.3228, -0.2322, -0.2607, -0.287, -0.3007, -0.3365, -0.2975, -0.2975, -0.327, -0.3175, -0.3239, -0.367, -0.3818, -0.3881, -0.3934, -0.4123, -0.4576, -0.4924, -0.4597, -0.4734, -0.505, -0.486, -0.4797, -0.5061, -0.4987, -0.5387, -0.5319, -0.5319, -0.544, -0.5124, -0.5103, -0.4734, -0.4966, -0.4618, -0.4755, -0.4302, -0.4292, -0.4681, -0.4766, -0.486, -0.4544, -0.4734, -0.465, -0.4724]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1983599881009717284", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-29T18:20:39+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "On a like for like basis $OPEN would be $2.50!!!!! Using $COMP as a comparison suggests $1.50. And don't forget book value, which is a mere 86 cents per share.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: parent's $43-47 P/S target is malpractice; apples-to-apples vs Zillow/Compass implies $1.50-$2.50, book value only 86 cents.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is analytical malpractice of the worst kind. $OPEN counts the total value of the house as revenues whereas Zillow only counts the commission. On a like for like basis $OPEN would be $2.50!!!!! Using $COMP as a comparison suggests $1.50. And don’t forget book value, which is a mere 86 cents per share. @dayetweets @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @1TradingDee @Seawolfcap @APompliano @nejatian", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Based on pure P/S vs Zillow or sector, $OPEN should be a $43 - $47 stock. \n\n✅someone pls tell me what am I missing here, sorry I only have a medical degree\n\n✅$OPEN has some catching up to do. \n\n@OpendoorNews @Openroar @Opendoor @ericjackson\n@rabois @RandianCapital @OpendoorKim https://t.co/Gn8fKqnGuY", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041830024945751276, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.041830024945751276, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04231007545401211, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013785744716251491, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00048005050826083195, "bench_c_m1d": 0.028044280229499785, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04052286783202341, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04052286783202341, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02952485876137867, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.046180877888459926, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.010998009070644743, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005658010056436513, "ret_p1w": -0.05490197007295239, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05490197007295239, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.040630628909239075, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06179008284701226, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.014271341163713314, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0068881127740598735, "ret_p1m": 0.01699347880003832, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.01699347880003832, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02820975775862411, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0031787413609867254, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.01121627895858579, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020172220161025045, "ret_p3m": -0.2326797630873566, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2326797630873566, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.24342619775885688, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2577841479199049, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.010746434671500271, "bench_c_p3m": 0.025104384832548288, "ret_p6m": -0.3176470947558946, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3176470947558946, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.354153225919445, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.41824084475890533, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.03650613116355039, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10059375000301074, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.01699347880003832, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02820975775862411, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0031787413609867254, "price_path": [-0.7255, -0.6784, -0.6706, -0.7516, -0.7582, -0.7451, -0.698, -0.6771, -0.6837, -0.6026, -0.5856, -0.5059, -0.5268, -0.5791, -0.5294, -0.3451, -0.4065, -0.3856, -0.4745, -0.4418, -0.4183, -0.4183, -0.3346, -0.3294, -0.2209, -0.1307, -0.2105, -0.2013, -0.234, 0.3752, 0.1856, 0.2412, 0.166, 0.3346, 0.2993, 0.251, 0.0954, -0.0732, 0.0758, 0.1882, 0.1516, 0.0719, 0.0418, 0.0536, 0.0471, 0.0601, 0.2131, 0.2144, 0.1098, 0.0641, -0.0105, -0.0497, -0.0013, -0.0353, -0.0706, -0.0641, -0.0366, -0.0902, -0.1085, -0.081, 0.0418, 0.0667, 0.0418, 0.0, -0.0405, 0.0157, -0.0078, -0.0954, -0.0549, -0.1425, -0.1425, 0.0418, 0.1085, 0.2248, 0.119, 0.0614, 0.0248, -0.017, -0.1255, -0.1948, -0.1176, 0.0052, 0.0118, 0.017, 0.017, 0.0065, -0.0667, -0.0863, -0.0928, -0.0092, -0.0654, -0.0784, -0.0314, -0.085, -0.0784, -0.1425, -0.1542, -0.1203, -0.2, -0.1791, -0.1686, -0.1608, -0.1804, -0.1791, -0.1791, -0.2144, -0.2379, -0.2366, -0.2379, -0.2379, -0.2065, -0.1739, -0.0941, -0.2, -0.1595, -0.0471, -0.0824, -0.115, -0.132, -0.1765, -0.1281, -0.1281, -0.1647, -0.1529, -0.1608, -0.2144, -0.2327, -0.2405, -0.2471, -0.2706, -0.3268, -0.3699, -0.3294, -0.3464, -0.3856, -0.3621, -0.3542, -0.3869, -0.3778, -0.4275, -0.419, -0.419, -0.434, -0.3948, -0.3922, -0.3464, -0.3752, -0.332, -0.349, -0.2928, -0.2915, -0.3399, -0.3503, -0.3621, -0.3229, -0.3464, -0.3359, -0.3451, -0.3111, -0.3673, -0.3529, -0.3229, -0.2732, -0.3098, -0.3281, -0.3582, -0.319, -0.3229, -0.3333, -0.3595, -0.3725, -0.4209, -0.3882, -0.4026, -0.3804, -0.3804, -0.3974, -0.4052, -0.3935, -0.4366, -0.4353, -0.4301, -0.4105, -0.3699, -0.3111, -0.3085, -0.3007, -0.2876, -0.2902, -0.3176]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1971233285218107480", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-25T15:20:13+00:00", "symbol": "OKLO", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Add this to the total garbage club. Only financial illiterates would own these stocks.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author labels OKLO and OPEN 'total garbage,' urging avoidance of both as uninvestable.", "resolved_tickers": ["OKLO"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Utilities - Independent Power Producers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Add this to the total garbage club.\n$OPEN was the first inductee.\n$OKLO is the second member.\nOnly financial illiterates would own these stocks.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Seeing the +1,500% stock price appreciation of a pre-revenue company named $OKLO, I decided to do a quick due diligence.\n\n1. Went to finviz to see if insiders are selling. They are.\n2. Caroline Cochran (now married DeWitte) caught my eye in the list of insiders selling as she was https://t.co/rinvPtfNqh", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.10106607230012266, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10106607230012266, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.09643122200410392, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09643122200410392, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004634850296018733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004634850296018733, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07219003334505958, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07219003334505958, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0779189739076871, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0779189739076871, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005728940562627516, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005728940562627516, "ret_p1w": 0.08117187963808492, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08117187963808492, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0641976288687427, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0641976288687427, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016974250769342225, "bench_c_p1w": 0.016974250769342225, "ret_p1m": 0.14202976738383488, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.14202976738383488, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.11285265531453881, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.11285265531453881, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.029177112069296074, "bench_c_p1m": 0.029177112069296074, "ret_p3m": -0.3126836301419562, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3126836301419562, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.36122527019439477, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.36122527019439477, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04854164005243855, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04854164005243855, "ret_p6m": -0.5469654791824091, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5469654791824091, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5381712341776387, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5381712341776387, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.00879424500477044, "bench_c_p6m": -0.00879424500477044, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.14202976738383488, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.11285265531453881, "alpha_c_stated": -0.11285265531453881, "price_path": [-0.53, -0.5657, -0.5691, -0.5491, -0.5491, -0.5304, -0.5507, -0.5473, -0.5345, -0.5293, -0.4761, -0.4884, -0.4597, -0.4362, -0.421, -0.4753, -0.4853, -0.4378, -0.3739, -0.3662, -0.3662, -0.4039, -0.3651, -0.3571, -0.3999, -0.3586, -0.2941, -0.3024, -0.3342, -0.3677, -0.3968, -0.3413, -0.3501, -0.3817, -0.4035, -0.4209, -0.4509, -0.4412, -0.436, -0.4092, -0.4024, -0.3762, -0.3855, -0.3462, -0.3819, -0.3819, -0.3823, -0.3937, -0.4157, -0.4142, -0.4064, -0.3791, -0.3809, -0.3287, -0.3057, -0.1968, -0.1956, -0.2001, -0.1189, 0.1351, 0.1777, 0.1974, 0.1011, 0.0, -0.0722, -0.022, -0.063, -0.0269, 0.0812, 0.0691, 0.1631, 0.1258, 0.1313, 0.1595, 0.2353, 0.4355, 0.4618, 0.4401, 0.361, 0.3715, 0.3351, 0.1705, 0.0083, 0.0468, 0.142, 0.1536, 0.1104, 0.2039, 0.1533, 0.1145, 0.0633, -0.0579, 0.0176, -0.1039, -0.0544, -0.0639, -0.1252, -0.0668, -0.1468, -0.181, -0.1995, -0.1889, -0.1366, -0.2613, -0.2599, -0.2483, -0.28, -0.2553, -0.2553, -0.2329, -0.2667, -0.2291, -0.1892, -0.0628, -0.1214, -0.1219, -0.1276, -0.1555, -0.1354, -0.2662, -0.3089, -0.299, -0.3625, -0.3476, -0.3014, -0.2996, -0.3127, -0.3175, -0.3175, -0.3543, -0.3781, -0.3988, -0.3976, -0.3976, -0.3469, -0.2501, -0.1975, -0.1807, -0.1807, -0.116, -0.1396, -0.185, -0.1944, -0.2324, -0.203, -0.203, -0.2451, -0.238, -0.2367, -0.2644, -0.3091, -0.2842, -0.2077, -0.2778, -0.3317, -0.382, -0.3453, -0.4273, -0.4784, -0.4032, -0.37, -0.4169, -0.4441, -0.4634, -0.4486, -0.4486, -0.4322, -0.4343, -0.4322, -0.4642, -0.4704, -0.4539, -0.4433, -0.4202, -0.4716, -0.4571, -0.4686, -0.4489, -0.4793, -0.511, -0.4814, -0.4848, -0.4732, -0.4998, -0.51, -0.499, -0.4919, -0.524, -0.5409, -0.547]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1971233285218107480", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-09-25T15:20:13+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN was the first inductee. Only financial illiterates would own these stocks.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author labels OKLO and OPEN 'total garbage,' urging avoidance of both as uninvestable.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Add this to the total garbage club.\n$OPEN was the first inductee.\n$OKLO is the second member.\nOnly financial illiterates would own these stocks.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Seeing the +1,500% stock price appreciation of a pre-revenue company named $OKLO, I decided to do a quick due diligence.\n\n1. Went to finviz to see if insiders are selling. They are.\n2. Caroline Cochran (now married DeWitte) caught my eye in the list of insiders selling as she was https://t.co/rinvPtfNqh", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.09460952650333276, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.09460952650333276, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0992443767993515, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.09702089656553226, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004634850296018733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0024113700621994916, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03080305041485354, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03080305041485354, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.036531990977481055, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.040689724332440225, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005728940562627516, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009886673917586686, "ret_p1w": -0.11881187080052824, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11881187080052824, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.13578612156987047, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.12942193684925185, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016974250769342225, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01061006604872361, "ret_p1m": -0.12321235903141103, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.12321235903141103, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1523894711007071, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.15166669575307157, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.029177112069296074, "bench_c_p1m": 0.028454336721660534, "ret_p3m": -0.3102310367793044, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3102310367793044, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.35877267683174296, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.28971314278722715, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04854164005243855, "bench_c_p3m": -0.020517893992077263, "ret_p6m": -0.45984601045201856, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.45984601045201856, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4510517654472481, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4493228270091234, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.00879424500477044, "bench_c_p6m": -0.010523183442895157, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.12321235903141103, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1523894711007071, "alpha_c_stated": 0.15166669575307157, "price_path": [-0.9414, -0.9378, -0.9377, -0.9329, -0.9329, -0.9311, -0.9195, -0.9189, -0.9029, -0.9143, -0.9009, -0.8856, -0.8361, -0.8185, -0.7525, -0.6469, -0.6832, -0.7481, -0.7338, -0.7206, -0.7426, -0.7745, -0.7723, -0.7976, -0.769, -0.7294, -0.7228, -0.791, -0.7965, -0.7855, -0.7459, -0.7283, -0.7338, -0.6656, -0.6513, -0.5842, -0.6018, -0.6458, -0.604, -0.4488, -0.5006, -0.4829, -0.5578, -0.5303, -0.5105, -0.5105, -0.44, -0.4356, -0.3443, -0.2684, -0.3355, -0.3278, -0.3553, 0.1573, -0.0022, 0.0446, -0.0187, 0.1232, 0.0935, 0.0528, -0.0781, -0.22, -0.0946, 0.0, -0.0308, -0.0979, -0.1232, -0.1133, -0.1188, -0.1078, 0.0209, 0.022, -0.066, -0.1045, -0.1672, -0.2002, -0.1595, -0.1881, -0.2178, -0.2123, -0.1892, -0.2343, -0.2497, -0.2266, -0.1232, -0.1023, -0.1232, -0.1584, -0.1925, -0.1452, -0.165, -0.2387, -0.2046, -0.2783, -0.2783, -0.1232, -0.0671, 0.0308, -0.0583, -0.1067, -0.1375, -0.1727, -0.264, -0.3223, -0.2574, -0.154, -0.1485, -0.1441, -0.1441, -0.1529, -0.2145, -0.231, -0.2365, -0.1661, -0.2134, -0.2244, -0.1848, -0.2299, -0.2244, -0.2783, -0.2882, -0.2596, -0.3267, -0.3091, -0.3003, -0.2937, -0.3102, -0.3091, -0.3091, -0.3388, -0.3586, -0.3575, -0.3586, -0.3586, -0.3322, -0.3047, -0.2376, -0.3267, -0.2926, -0.198, -0.2277, -0.2552, -0.2695, -0.3069, -0.2662, -0.2662, -0.297, -0.2871, -0.2937, -0.3388, -0.3542, -0.3608, -0.3663, -0.3861, -0.4334, -0.4697, -0.4356, -0.4499, -0.4829, -0.4631, -0.4565, -0.484, -0.4763, -0.5182, -0.511, -0.511, -0.5237, -0.4906, -0.4884, -0.4499, -0.4741, -0.4378, -0.4521, -0.4048, -0.4037, -0.4444, -0.4532, -0.4631, -0.4301, -0.4499, -0.4411, -0.4488, -0.4202, -0.4675, -0.4554, -0.4301, -0.3883, -0.4191, -0.4345, -0.4598]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1971584562892615774", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-26T14:36:04+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Anyone who listens to this and still owns $OPEN needs to take an introductory finance class.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisive avoid/sell verdict on OPEN; implies owning it reflects financial naivety.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Anyone who listens to this and still owns $OPEN needs to take an introductory finance class. @ericjackson", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@ericjackson if you were to summarize how CVNA makes money how would you do that?  *answered*\ndo they hold the loans on their balance sheet or do they securitize it? *answered*\nOPEN doesn't do that, do u see it moving toward that? *not answered*\nasked about servicing mortgages &amp; securitizing https://t.co/MxRqAGfguF", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03178203401077395, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03178203401077395, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.037478340770548124, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.041571918532404495, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005696306759774172, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009789884521630543, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.06923956654909014, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06923956654909014, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.07205010658099043, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07114966475559337, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0028105400319002882, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0019100982065032301, "ret_p1w": -0.079455247400534, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.079455247400534, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09062162290858156, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08423077345603713, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011166375508047555, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004775526055503132, "ret_p1m": -0.07377985712205781, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07377985712205781, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10916718301386852, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09431476878165235, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.035387325891810706, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020534911659594535, "ret_p3m": -0.2871736764251396, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2871736764251396, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.33340991930824315, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2633428026884662, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04623624288310357, "bench_c_p3m": -0.023830873736673364, "ret_p6m": -0.40862658456335843, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.40862658456335843, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.40453449406926967, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.39573103708587853, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.004092090494088763, "bench_c_p6m": -0.012895547477479896, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07377985712205781, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10916718301386852, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09431476878165235, "price_path": [-0.9359, -0.9358, -0.9308, -0.9308, -0.9289, -0.9169, -0.9163, -0.8998, -0.9116, -0.8977, -0.882, -0.8309, -0.8127, -0.7446, -0.6356, -0.6731, -0.7401, -0.7253, -0.7117, -0.7344, -0.7673, -0.765, -0.7911, -0.7616, -0.7208, -0.714, -0.7843, -0.79, -0.7787, -0.7378, -0.7196, -0.7253, -0.6549, -0.6402, -0.5709, -0.5891, -0.6345, -0.5914, -0.4313, -0.4847, -0.4665, -0.5437, -0.5153, -0.4949, -0.4949, -0.4222, -0.4177, -0.3235, -0.2452, -0.3144, -0.3065, -0.3348, 0.1941, 0.0295, 0.0778, 0.0125, 0.1589, 0.1283, 0.0863, -0.0488, -0.1952, -0.0658, 0.0318, 0.0, -0.0692, -0.0953, -0.0851, -0.0908, -0.0795, 0.0533, 0.0545, -0.0363, -0.076, -0.1407, -0.1748, -0.1328, -0.1623, -0.193, -0.1873, -0.1635, -0.21, -0.2259, -0.202, -0.0953, -0.0738, -0.0953, -0.1317, -0.1669, -0.118, -0.1385, -0.2145, -0.1793, -0.2554, -0.2554, -0.0953, -0.0375, 0.0636, -0.0284, -0.0783, -0.1101, -0.1464, -0.2406, -0.3008, -0.2338, -0.1271, -0.1215, -0.1169, -0.1169, -0.126, -0.1896, -0.2066, -0.2123, -0.1396, -0.1884, -0.1998, -0.1589, -0.2054, -0.1998, -0.2554, -0.2656, -0.2361, -0.3053, -0.2872, -0.2781, -0.2713, -0.2883, -0.2872, -0.2872, -0.3178, -0.3383, -0.3371, -0.3383, -0.3383, -0.311, -0.2826, -0.2134, -0.3053, -0.2701, -0.1725, -0.2032, -0.2316, -0.2463, -0.2849, -0.2429, -0.2429, -0.2747, -0.2645, -0.2713, -0.3178, -0.3337, -0.3405, -0.3462, -0.3666, -0.4154, -0.4529, -0.4177, -0.4325, -0.4665, -0.4461, -0.4393, -0.4677, -0.4597, -0.5028, -0.4955, -0.4955, -0.5085, -0.4745, -0.4722, -0.4325, -0.4574, -0.42, -0.4347, -0.3859, -0.3848, -0.4268, -0.4359, -0.4461, -0.412, -0.4325, -0.4234, -0.4313, -0.4018, -0.4506, -0.4381, -0.412, -0.3689, -0.4007, -0.4166, -0.4427, -0.4086]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1990814309710999637", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-18T16:08:13+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is valued at 25x revenues (same as gross profits) and is guiding to no profits until 2027. So much for the warrant distraction. SELL", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Sell OPEN: 25x revenue valuation with no profits guided until 2027 makes fundamentals untenable.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Maybe the fundamentals are starting to matter again!\n$OPEN is valued at 25x revenues (same as gross profits) and is guiding to no profits until 2027.\nSo much for the warrant distraction. \nSELL https://t.co/GdNVwzMWdS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "WOW! I just woke up to see $OPEN. What's going on?\n@nejatian \n@ericjackson \n@8bitsteveo \n@rabois \n@Opendoor_God \nAnyone???", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.042553214424603025, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.042553214424603025, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03408454497737412, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.046226966163354866, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008468669447228905, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0036737517387518404, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.11037233056000528, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.11037233056000528, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.1142355072032819, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.10253487841584685, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0038631766432766224, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00783745214415843, "ret_p1w": 0.029255291323091903, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.029255291323091903, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.006621640850515753, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.017989061773509007, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02263365047257615, "bench_c_p1w": 0.011266229549582896, "ret_p1m": -0.186170225919993, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.186170225919993, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20331966846498328, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1837210580941584, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01714944254499029, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0024491678258345972, "ret_p3m": -0.4089095501415515, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4089095501415515, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4447907750806893, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.485946208622584, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03588122493913781, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07703665848103247, "ret_p6m": -0.3909574554092261, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3909574554092261, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5219365407772627, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4929306593991809, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1309790853680366, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1019732039899548, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.186170225919993, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20331966846498328, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1837210580941584, "price_path": [-0.5213, -0.3338, -0.3963, -0.375, -0.4654, -0.4322, -0.4082, -0.4082, -0.3231, -0.3178, -0.2074, -0.1157, -0.1968, -0.1875, -0.2207, 0.3989, 0.2061, 0.2626, 0.1862, 0.3577, 0.3218, 0.2726, 0.1144, -0.0572, 0.0944, 0.2088, 0.1715, 0.0904, 0.0598, 0.0718, 0.0652, 0.0785, 0.234, 0.2354, 0.129, 0.0824, 0.0066, -0.0332, 0.016, -0.0186, -0.0545, -0.0479, -0.0199, -0.0745, -0.0931, -0.0652, 0.0598, 0.0851, 0.0598, 0.0173, -0.0239, 0.0332, 0.0093, -0.0798, -0.0386, -0.1277, -0.1277, 0.0598, 0.1277, 0.246, 0.1383, 0.0798, 0.0426, 0.0, -0.1104, -0.1809, -0.1024, 0.0226, 0.0293, 0.0346, 0.0346, 0.0239, -0.0505, -0.0705, -0.0771, 0.008, -0.0492, -0.0625, -0.0146, -0.0691, -0.0625, -0.1277, -0.1396, -0.1051, -0.1862, -0.1649, -0.1543, -0.1463, -0.1662, -0.1649, -0.1649, -0.2008, -0.2247, -0.2234, -0.2247, -0.2247, -0.1928, -0.1596, -0.0785, -0.1862, -0.1449, -0.0306, -0.0665, -0.0997, -0.117, -0.1622, -0.113, -0.113, -0.1503, -0.1383, -0.1463, -0.2008, -0.2194, -0.2274, -0.234, -0.258, -0.3152, -0.359, -0.3178, -0.3351, -0.375, -0.3511, -0.3431, -0.3763, -0.367, -0.4176, -0.4089, -0.4089, -0.4242, -0.3843, -0.3816, -0.3351, -0.3644, -0.3205, -0.3378, -0.2806, -0.2793, -0.3285, -0.3391, -0.3511, -0.3112, -0.3351, -0.3245, -0.3338, -0.2992, -0.3564, -0.3418, -0.3112, -0.2606, -0.2979, -0.3165, -0.3471, -0.3072, -0.3112, -0.3218, -0.3484, -0.3617, -0.4109, -0.3777, -0.3923, -0.3697, -0.3697, -0.387, -0.3949, -0.383, -0.4269, -0.4255, -0.4202, -0.4003, -0.359, -0.2992, -0.2965, -0.2886, -0.2753, -0.2779, -0.3059, -0.2673, -0.2832, -0.2713, -0.258, -0.2846, -0.2766, -0.3178, -0.3045, -0.2739, -0.2926, -0.3338, -0.3551, -0.3737, -0.391]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1984022662818238904", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-30T22:20:38+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I will take the under. $OPEN", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Disagrees with $37 PT upgrade; takes the bearish side on OPEN.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I will take the under. $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "I spent the day working on my OPEN model and after meaningful consideration, I am updating my price target from $25 to $37. I am increasing my revenue and EBITDA forecast by 32.5% and 45% respectively. Lower rates and tokenization optionality have shifted the curve significantly.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.05534103338406304, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.05534103338406304, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05207153626909922, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.054851923312560835, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0032694971149638263, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0004891100715022079, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023166001130048852, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023166001130048852, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02504265060830624, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.021454403140992118, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0018766494782573861, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0017115979890567345, "ret_p1w": -0.1557271610189489, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.1557271610189489, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.13946746716211345, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.16477349500586536, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.016259693856835455, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009046333986916455, "ret_p1m": -0.08108109600867663, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08108109600867663, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07845663793982371, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0857265883968773, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0026244580688529195, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004645492388200667, "ret_p3m": -0.25868722741039185, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.25868722741039185, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2812875946378247, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2683801863606704, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02260036722743286, "bench_c_p3m": 0.009692958950278552, "ret_p6m": -0.30630632178677575, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.30630632178677575, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.36082073794478287, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3884775798290122, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05451441615800712, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08217125804223646, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08108109600867663, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07845663793982371, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0857265883968773, "price_path": [-0.6757, -0.7555, -0.7619, -0.749, -0.7027, -0.6821, -0.6885, -0.6088, -0.592, -0.5135, -0.5341, -0.5856, -0.5367, -0.3552, -0.4157, -0.3951, -0.4826, -0.4505, -0.4273, -0.4273, -0.3449, -0.3398, -0.2329, -0.1441, -0.2227, -0.2136, -0.2458, 0.3539, 0.1673, 0.222, 0.148, 0.314, 0.2793, 0.2317, 0.0785, -0.0875, 0.0592, 0.1699, 0.1338, 0.0553, 0.0257, 0.0373, 0.0309, 0.0438, 0.1943, 0.1956, 0.0927, 0.0476, -0.0257, -0.0644, -0.0167, -0.0502, -0.0849, -0.0785, -0.0515, -0.1042, -0.1223, -0.0952, 0.0257, 0.0502, 0.0257, -0.0154, -0.0553, 0.0, -0.0232, -0.1094, -0.0695, -0.1557, -0.1557, 0.0257, 0.0914, 0.2059, 0.1017, 0.045, 0.009, -0.0322, -0.139, -0.2072, -0.1313, -0.0103, -0.0039, 0.0013, 0.0013, -0.009, -0.0811, -0.1004, -0.1068, -0.0245, -0.0798, -0.0927, -0.0463, -0.0991, -0.0927, -0.1557, -0.1673, -0.1338, -0.2124, -0.1918, -0.1815, -0.1737, -0.1931, -0.1918, -0.1918, -0.2265, -0.2497, -0.2484, -0.2497, -0.2497, -0.2188, -0.1866, -0.1081, -0.2124, -0.1725, -0.0618, -0.0965, -0.1287, -0.1454, -0.1892, -0.1416, -0.1416, -0.1776, -0.166, -0.1737, -0.2265, -0.2445, -0.2523, -0.2587, -0.2819, -0.3372, -0.3797, -0.3398, -0.3565, -0.3951, -0.3719, -0.3642, -0.3964, -0.3874, -0.4363, -0.4279, -0.4279, -0.4427, -0.4041, -0.4015, -0.3565, -0.3848, -0.3423, -0.3591, -0.3037, -0.3024, -0.3501, -0.3604, -0.3719, -0.3333, -0.3565, -0.3462, -0.3552, -0.3218, -0.3771, -0.3629, -0.3333, -0.2844, -0.3205, -0.3385, -0.3681, -0.3295, -0.3333, -0.3436, -0.3694, -0.3822, -0.4299, -0.3977, -0.4118, -0.39, -0.39, -0.4067, -0.4144, -0.4028, -0.4453, -0.444, -0.4389, -0.4196, -0.3797, -0.3218, -0.3192, -0.3115, -0.2986, -0.3012, -0.3282, -0.2909, -0.3063]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1971231778091434485", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-25T15:14:14+00:00", "symbol": "OKLO", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Shareholders will get what they deserve. $OKLO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OKLO; implies shareholders will be punished — a decisive negative verdict on the stock.", "resolved_tickers": ["OKLO"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Utilities - Independent Power Producers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Who says they don’t ring a bell?\nShareholders will get what they deserve. $OKLO\n\n---\n\n$OKLO https://t.co/JQCDCemu9e", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.10106607230012266, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10106607230012266, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.09643122200410392, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09643122200410392, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004634850296018733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004634850296018733, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07219003334505958, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07219003334505958, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0779189739076871, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0779189739076871, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005728940562627516, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005728940562627516, "ret_p1w": 0.08117187963808492, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08117187963808492, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0641976288687427, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0641976288687427, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016974250769342225, "bench_c_p1w": 0.016974250769342225, "ret_p1m": 0.14202976738383488, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.14202976738383488, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.11285265531453881, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.11285265531453881, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.029177112069296074, "bench_c_p1m": 0.029177112069296074, "ret_p3m": -0.3126836301419562, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3126836301419562, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.36122527019439477, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.36122527019439477, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04854164005243855, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04854164005243855, "ret_p6m": -0.5469654791824091, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5469654791824091, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5381712341776387, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5381712341776387, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.00879424500477044, "bench_c_p6m": -0.00879424500477044, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.14202976738383488, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.11285265531453881, "alpha_c_stated": -0.11285265531453881, "price_path": [-0.53, -0.5657, -0.5691, -0.5491, -0.5491, -0.5304, -0.5507, -0.5473, -0.5345, -0.5293, -0.4761, -0.4884, -0.4597, -0.4362, -0.421, -0.4753, -0.4853, -0.4378, -0.3739, -0.3662, -0.3662, -0.4039, -0.3651, -0.3571, -0.3999, -0.3586, -0.2941, -0.3024, -0.3342, -0.3677, -0.3968, -0.3413, -0.3501, -0.3817, -0.4035, -0.4209, -0.4509, -0.4412, -0.436, -0.4092, -0.4024, -0.3762, -0.3855, -0.3462, -0.3819, -0.3819, -0.3823, -0.3937, -0.4157, -0.4142, -0.4064, -0.3791, -0.3809, -0.3287, -0.3057, -0.1968, -0.1956, -0.2001, -0.1189, 0.1351, 0.1777, 0.1974, 0.1011, 0.0, -0.0722, -0.022, -0.063, -0.0269, 0.0812, 0.0691, 0.1631, 0.1258, 0.1313, 0.1595, 0.2353, 0.4355, 0.4618, 0.4401, 0.361, 0.3715, 0.3351, 0.1705, 0.0083, 0.0468, 0.142, 0.1536, 0.1104, 0.2039, 0.1533, 0.1145, 0.0633, -0.0579, 0.0176, -0.1039, -0.0544, -0.0639, -0.1252, -0.0668, -0.1468, -0.181, -0.1995, -0.1889, -0.1366, -0.2613, -0.2599, -0.2483, -0.28, -0.2553, -0.2553, -0.2329, -0.2667, -0.2291, -0.1892, -0.0628, -0.1214, -0.1219, -0.1276, -0.1555, -0.1354, -0.2662, -0.3089, -0.299, -0.3625, -0.3476, -0.3014, -0.2996, -0.3127, -0.3175, -0.3175, -0.3543, -0.3781, -0.3988, -0.3976, -0.3976, -0.3469, -0.2501, -0.1975, -0.1807, -0.1807, -0.116, -0.1396, -0.185, -0.1944, -0.2324, -0.203, -0.203, -0.2451, -0.238, -0.2367, -0.2644, -0.3091, -0.2842, -0.2077, -0.2778, -0.3317, -0.382, -0.3453, -0.4273, -0.4784, -0.4032, -0.37, -0.4169, -0.4441, -0.4634, -0.4486, -0.4486, -0.4322, -0.4343, -0.4322, -0.4642, -0.4704, -0.4539, -0.4433, -0.4202, -0.4716, -0.4571, -0.4686, -0.4489, -0.4793, -0.511, -0.4814, -0.4848, -0.4732, -0.4998, -0.51, -0.499, -0.4919, -0.524, -0.5409, -0.547]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986495592768675877", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T18:07:11+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will collapse as the losses start this quarter. SELL.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: expects collapse as losses start this quarter; urges sell on poor fundamentals/valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "So many financially illiterate $TSLA shareholders. They keep drinking the koolaid from @elonmusk \nThey are clueless with respect to fundamentals and valuation. $TSLA will collapse as the losses start this quarter. SELL.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "i am more confident than ever that $tsla stock is going to implode . Never a stock has been  so disconnected from business results and only tied to false promises based on zero fundementals. $tsla", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.036240504876303925, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.036240504876303925, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.025394866010775452, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012587702925987543, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010845638865528473, "bench_c_m1d": 0.023652801950316382, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03675632866235745, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03675632866235745, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0377408018411326, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03832746762892436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0015711389665669095, "ret_p1w": -0.09849524134249965, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09849524134249965, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1010760979617803, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08367505243818374, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002580856619280647, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014820188904315912, "ret_p1m": 0.020385271160632268, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.020385271160632268, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0025592061312080805, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0035268320656520746, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02294447729184035, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016858439094980193, "ret_p3m": -0.05371041692345502, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05371041692345502, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08542325152314723, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0833062738046435, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03171283459969221, "bench_c_p3m": 0.029595856881188487, "ret_p6m": -0.12354510077247638, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12354510077247638, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2047662037349851, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13508586382075838, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08122110296250873, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011540763048281999, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.05371041692345502, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08542325152314723, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0833062738046435, "price_path": [-0.2397, -0.2356, -0.2389, -0.2474, -0.2587, -0.2484, -0.2615, -0.2736, -0.2821, -0.2375, -0.2227, -0.2113, -0.216, -0.2241, -0.2513, -0.2513, -0.2614, -0.2508, -0.2408, -0.2132, -0.2232, -0.2219, -0.22, -0.1729, -0.1121, -0.0804, -0.0545, -0.045, -0.0652, -0.0445, -0.0262, -0.045, -0.007, -0.0505, -0.0124, -0.0061, -0.0027, 0.0304, -0.0222, -0.0361, 0.0165, -0.0288, -0.0162, -0.0233, -0.0727, -0.0224, -0.0374, -0.0241, -0.0385, -0.0148, 0.0034, -0.0074, -0.0156, 0.0069, -0.0273, 0.0146, 0.0328, 0.035, -0.013, 0.0239, 0.0504, -0.0037, 0.0362, 0.0, -0.0368, -0.0015, -0.0141, -0.0343, -0.0985, -0.0932, -0.083, -0.1002, -0.094, -0.1137, -0.1229, -0.0631, -0.0595, -0.0433, -0.0433, -0.0353, -0.0354, -0.0374, 0.0019, 0.0193, 0.0204, -0.0142, -0.0017, 0.0124, 0.0022, 0.0293, 0.0659, 0.0986, 0.0479, 0.084, 0.0791, 0.096, 0.0889, 0.0886, 0.0886, 0.0657, 0.0308, 0.0191, 0.0085, 0.0085, -0.0176, 0.0129, -0.029, -0.0325, -0.0227, -0.002, 0.0068, 0.0029, -0.015, -0.0165, -0.0189, -0.0189, -0.0598, -0.0325, 0.0077, 0.0071, -0.024, -0.0337, -0.0324, -0.0658, -0.0348, -0.054, -0.0537, -0.0895, -0.1092, -0.078, -0.0641, -0.0464, -0.0396, -0.0647, -0.0638, -0.0638, -0.0791, -0.0776, -0.0767, -0.0765, -0.1033, -0.0819, -0.0639, -0.0837, -0.0973, -0.0955, -0.1199, -0.0896, -0.0905, -0.1103, -0.1059, -0.1047, -0.0854, -0.1141, -0.1227, -0.1129, -0.1046, -0.1191, -0.1471, -0.1748, -0.1459, -0.141, -0.1345, -0.1655, -0.1886, -0.2032, -0.1663, -0.145, -0.1913, -0.1913, -0.2088, -0.2226, -0.2302, -0.2249, -0.2174, -0.2097, -0.1832, -0.121, -0.1279, -0.1016, -0.1198, -0.1334, -0.131, -0.1619, -0.1561, -0.1508, -0.1567, -0.164, -0.1442, -0.1235]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1986450916791197699", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T15:09:39+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect any short term pop in the share price to be short lived as the hype fades. Retail investors will bail as the momentum continues to drain out of the share price.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "weeks", "summary": "Short OPEN: overvalued at 20x sales/9x book, asset-heavy unprofitable business; any pop from tonight's meeting will fade as retail momentum drains.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "No doubt that @nejatian will pull out all the stops to pump $OPEN at the meeting tonight. I expect his proclamations to be “full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”Tokenization of real estate, the $HOOD relationship, we are an aggressive software company, blah blah blah.\n\n20x sales (in economic terms the same as gross profits for $OPEN), 9x book value (86 cents), an asset heavy business that has never made money and can’t scale - good luck justifying the current share price, let alone $83!\n\nI expect any short term pop in the share price to be short lived as the hype fades. Retail investors will bail as the momentum continues to drain out of the share price.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.10213415886251664, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10213415886251664, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.09128851999698817, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09722370075693876, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010845638865528473, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004910458105577886, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.013258015732235062, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013258015732235062, "ret_p1w": 0.3048781241284184, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.3048781241284184, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.30229726750913777, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.30242294315233065, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002580856619280647, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0024551809760877674, "ret_p1m": 0.08993904843509815, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08993904843509815, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0669945711432578, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0835555202052285, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02294447729184035, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0063835282298696505, "ret_p3m": -0.21798778061158286, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.21798778061158286, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.24970061521127507, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.23090233639055624, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03171283459969221, "bench_c_p3m": 0.01291455577897338, "ret_p6m": -0.17073169136104083, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17073169136104083, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.25195279432354956, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.27815908015770785, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08122110296250873, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10742738879666702, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.08993904843509815, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0669945711432578, "alpha_c_stated": -0.0835555202052285, "price_path": [-0.6479, -0.6235, -0.6311, -0.5366, -0.5168, -0.4238, -0.4482, -0.5091, -0.4512, -0.2363, -0.3079, -0.2835, -0.3872, -0.3491, -0.3216, -0.3216, -0.2241, -0.218, -0.0915, 0.0137, -0.0793, -0.0686, -0.1067, 0.6037, 0.3826, 0.4474, 0.3598, 0.5564, 0.5152, 0.4588, 0.2774, 0.0808, 0.2546, 0.3857, 0.343, 0.25, 0.2149, 0.2287, 0.221, 0.2363, 0.4146, 0.4162, 0.2942, 0.2409, 0.154, 0.1082, 0.1646, 0.125, 0.0838, 0.0915, 0.1235, 0.061, 0.0396, 0.0716, 0.2149, 0.2439, 0.2149, 0.1662, 0.1189, 0.1845, 0.157, 0.0549, 0.1021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2149, 0.2927, 0.4284, 0.3049, 0.2378, 0.1951, 0.1463, 0.0198, -0.061, 0.029, 0.1723, 0.1799, 0.186, 0.186, 0.1738, 0.0884, 0.0655, 0.0579, 0.1555, 0.0899, 0.0747, 0.1296, 0.0671, 0.0747, 0.0, -0.0137, 0.0259, -0.0671, -0.0427, -0.0305, -0.0213, -0.0442, -0.0427, -0.0427, -0.0838, -0.1113, -0.1098, -0.1113, -0.1113, -0.0747, -0.0366, 0.0564, -0.0671, -0.0198, 0.1113, 0.0701, 0.032, 0.0122, -0.0396, 0.0168, 0.0168, -0.0259, -0.0122, -0.0213, -0.0838, -0.1052, -0.1143, -0.122, -0.1494, -0.2149, -0.2652, -0.218, -0.2378, -0.2835, -0.2561, -0.247, -0.2851, -0.2744, -0.3323, -0.3224, -0.3224, -0.3399, -0.2942, -0.2912, -0.2378, -0.2713, -0.221, -0.2409, -0.1753, -0.1738, -0.2302, -0.2424, -0.2561, -0.2104, -0.2378, -0.2256, -0.2363, -0.1966, -0.2622, -0.2454, -0.2104, -0.1524, -0.1951, -0.2165, -0.2515, -0.2058, -0.2104, -0.2226, -0.253, -0.2683, -0.3247, -0.2866, -0.3034, -0.2774, -0.2774, -0.2973, -0.3064, -0.2927, -0.343, -0.3415, -0.3354, -0.3125, -0.2652, -0.1966, -0.1936, -0.1845, -0.1692, -0.1723, -0.2043, -0.1601, -0.1784, -0.1646, -0.1494, -0.1799, -0.1707]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986833158717723040", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-07T16:28:33+00:00", "symbol": "ABTC", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$ABTC down almost 50% since my post. This POS will still go lower.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish ABTC (still going lower after -50%) and HUT dragged down with it.", "resolved_tickers": ["ABTC"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$ABTC down almost 50% since my post. This POS will still go lower. \n$HUT along for the ride. @ericjackson @DavidDTawil", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.021551704204748168, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.021551704204748168, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02056819926021214, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.014541508567434525, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007010195637313643, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.053879311895186355, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.053879311895186355, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.038275033268043046, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0502794401819493, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015604278627143309, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0035998717132370572, "ret_p1w": 0.04741385201707771, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04741385201707771, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.045983124270195574, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.053666149122666096, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0014307277468821322, "bench_c_p1w": -0.006252297105588389, "ret_p1m": -0.5646551639975603, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.5646551639975603, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.5835234536720975, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.5779178030529202, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01886828967453713, "bench_c_p1m": 0.013262639055359848, "ret_p3m": -0.7241379292626442, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.7241379292626442, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.7498435181627137, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.7500680082947815, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.025705588900069465, "bench_c_p3m": 0.025930079032137288, "ret_p6m": -0.7478448295795252, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.7478448295795252, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.8240455049446571, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.73356561156694, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07620067536513186, "bench_c_p6m": -0.014279218012585249, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.5646551639975603, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.5835234536720975, "alpha_c_stated": 0.5779178030529202, "price_path": [0.5086, 0.4763, 0.5194, 0.3685, 0.3901, 0.25, 0.2392, 0.2823, 0.3793, 0.5086, 0.3362, 0.3039, 0.8534, 0.6595, 0.6595, 0.4871, 0.7328, 0.3815, 0.5948, 0.7974, 1.0065, 0.9116, 0.7845, 0.7004, 0.5248, 0.6659, 0.6595, 0.6121, 0.5323, 0.5603, 0.4957, 0.5065, 0.4418, 0.4181, 0.4267, 0.4526, 0.5517, 0.5582, 0.5043, 0.5409, 0.4655, 0.472, 0.4116, 0.2823, 0.2996, 0.2414, 0.2047, 0.0841, 0.0216, 0.097, 0.0496, -0.0323, 0.0884, 0.2112, 0.2845, 0.2241, 0.181, 0.1099, 0.097, 0.0603, 0.0, 0.0323, -0.0216, 0.0, 0.0539, 0.0582, 0.0625, 0.0216, 0.0474, 0.0884, 0.0927, 0.0194, -0.0129, -0.0453, -0.0539, -0.0733, -0.0948, -0.0948, -0.0862, -0.2284, -0.528, -0.4849, -0.4784, -0.5194, -0.5647, -0.5582, -0.5819, -0.6056, -0.6164, -0.6444, -0.6444, -0.6444, -0.6573, -0.6164, -0.5797, -0.5991, -0.5948, -0.5948, -0.5927, -0.6099, -0.6293, -0.6336, -0.6336, -0.6164, -0.5647, -0.5754, -0.5884, -0.5884, -0.6056, -0.6078, -0.597, -0.6207, -0.6379, -0.6466, -0.6466, -0.6638, -0.6616, -0.6638, -0.6703, -0.6746, -0.6573, -0.6638, -0.6681, -0.6746, -0.6918, -0.7091, -0.7241, -0.7532, -0.7177, -0.7284, -0.7414, -0.7522, -0.7522, -0.7565, -0.7565, -0.7651, -0.7759, -0.7802, -0.7845, -0.7899, -0.7802, -0.7737, -0.7672, -0.7802, -0.7802, -0.778, -0.7522, -0.7478, -0.7651, -0.7629, -0.75, -0.7565, -0.7737, -0.7759, -0.7759, -0.7716, -0.778, -0.7802, -0.7959, -0.792, -0.7955, -0.7881, -0.8032, -0.8147, -0.8297, -0.8009, -0.8022, -0.8041, -0.8041, -0.8093, -0.8121, -0.7922, -0.797, -0.7948, -0.7866, -0.778, -0.7629, -0.7565, -0.7198, -0.7284, -0.7328, -0.7112, -0.7284, -0.7328, -0.7392, -0.7478, -0.7543, -0.7522, -0.7392, -0.7478]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986833158717723040", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-11-07T16:28:33+00:00", "symbol": "HUT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$HUT along for the ride.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish ABTC (still going lower after -50%) and HUT dragged down with it.", "resolved_tickers": ["HUT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$ABTC down almost 50% since my post. This POS will still go lower. \n$HUT along for the ride. @ericjackson @DavidDTawil", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.027360421989868988, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.027360421989868988, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02637691704533296, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.020350226352555345, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007010195637313643, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0578604621558334, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0578604621558334, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.042256183528690094, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.054260590442596346, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015604278627143309, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0035998717132370572, "ret_p1w": -0.1715631643799158, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.1715631643799158, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.17299389212679794, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.16531086727432742, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0014307277468821322, "bench_c_p1w": -0.006252297105588389, "ret_p1m": -0.03722807449498888, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03722807449498888, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.056096364169526014, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05049071355034873, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01886828967453713, "bench_c_p1m": 0.013262639055359848, "ret_p3m": 0.21484633289021016, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.21484633289021016, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1891407439901407, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.18891625385807287, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.025705588900069465, "bench_c_p3m": 0.025930079032137288, "ret_p6m": 0.7510652963414068, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.7510652963414068, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.674864620976275, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.7653445143539921, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07620067536513186, "bench_c_p6m": -0.014279218012585249, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03722807449498888, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.056096364169526014, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05049071355034873, "price_path": [-0.516, -0.4985, -0.4662, -0.477, -0.4523, -0.5071, -0.4997, -0.5207, -0.4759, -0.4741, -0.4189, -0.4091, -0.4055, -0.4005, -0.4005, -0.3855, -0.3795, -0.4257, -0.4308, -0.4286, -0.3429, -0.3059, -0.2832, -0.2725, -0.2331, -0.2144, -0.1525, -0.1617, -0.1873, -0.1507, -0.2057, -0.1509, -0.2178, -0.2563, -0.2185, -0.2193, -0.1808, -0.1245, -0.1007, -0.0711, -0.0641, 0.0002, 0.0397, -0.0229, 0.1014, 0.1201, 0.209, 0.094, 0.0868, 0.1195, 0.0523, -0.129, -0.0886, 0.0688, 0.1168, 0.1265, 0.1644, 0.0893, 0.1361, 0.2335, 0.0789, 0.054, -0.0274, 0.0, 0.0579, -0.0153, -0.0641, -0.1922, -0.1716, -0.1545, -0.1328, -0.1581, -0.2429, -0.2299, -0.1195, -0.1038, -0.0498, -0.0498, 0.0092, -0.0229, -0.155, -0.1025, -0.0399, -0.0484, -0.0372, 0.0072, 0.0325, 0.0484, -0.0736, -0.2052, -0.1736, -0.0993, -0.1346, -0.0105, 0.1301, 0.1767, 0.1841, 0.1841, 0.1133, 0.0951, 0.0379, 0.0303, 0.0303, 0.1498, 0.3063, 0.3086, 0.298, 0.2996, 0.3465, 0.37, 0.3788, 0.309, 0.2846, 0.3377, 0.3377, 0.3072, 0.3218, 0.2362, 0.3057, 0.2646, 0.3869, 0.4488, 0.3799, 0.2521, 0.2599, 0.3236, 0.2148, -0.0025, 0.19, 0.2758, 0.2312, 0.1935, 0.1431, 0.2081, 0.2081, 0.1873, 0.2024, 0.2303, 0.207, 0.2117, 0.3274, 0.2402, 0.2294, 0.1938, 0.1823, 0.0675, 0.2157, 0.1518, 0.0556, 0.0931, 0.1029, 0.1464, 0.0886, 0.0837, 0.148, 0.1615, 0.107, 0.1245, 0.0644, 0.1873, 0.1942, 0.2474, 0.1343, 0.0631, -0.0419, 0.052, 0.0621, 0.0789, 0.0789, 0.1119, 0.181, 0.3777, 0.4223, 0.4821, 0.5645, 0.6089, 0.5943, 0.5905, 0.6797, 0.7715, 0.7174, 0.8107, 0.7665, 0.7239, 0.6979, 0.6172, 0.5923, 0.6995, 0.7264, 0.7511]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2004996133664555444", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-27T19:21:43+00:00", "symbol": "RGTI", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Headed for single digits. Stay short. $RGTI", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Stay short RGTI; expects price to fall to single digits from ~$22.", "resolved_tickers": ["RGTI"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Computer Hardware'", "bench_c_industry": "Computer Hardware", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "For those keeping score at home, \n$RGTI was 48 on 10/16, now $22.38\n\n---\n\nPrice is still not truth!\n(It never is)\nHeaded for single digits. Stay short. $RGTI $23.38 https://t.co/3nRRpqIZ2a\n\n---\n\n$RGTI. How is his hand feeling? https://t.co/uo5dQkUeJE", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.004939321991104029, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004939321991104029, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0013629234383625288, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.00041480805547955413, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004524513935624475, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006286456523157957, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.006286456523157957, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.007507670136522981, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00943992151773565, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0031534649945776927, "ret_p1w": 0.1230354609248765, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.1230354609248765, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.12322439667601648, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.13160485760252338, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.00856939667764689, "ret_p1m": 0.0017960937295251611, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0017960937295251611, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.009310973430979308, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.013148706739074756, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.014944800468599917, "ret_p3m": -0.35294119662271684, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.35294119662271684, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2933377654495668, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2624135876293069, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09052760899340995, "ret_p6m": -0.04445441179921639, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.04445441179921639, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.11660458628379111, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.31023154121386287, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": 0.2657771294146465, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0017960937295251611, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.009310973430979308, "alpha_c_stated": 0.013148706739074756, "price_path": [0.3404, 0.5896, 0.7988, 0.8729, 0.9717, 0.9412, 1.1154, 0.9722, 1.4656, 1.52, 1.5299, 1.154, 1.0826, 0.9448, 0.7961, 0.6192, 0.778, 0.7441, 0.8069, 0.6646, 0.7696, 0.9093, 0.9879, 0.7566, 0.5797, 0.6744, 0.5429, 0.5164, 0.4854, 0.41, 0.2708, 0.1316, 0.1441, 0.1087, 0.1545, 0.1432, 0.0238, 0.0593, 0.1931, 0.1711, 0.1482, 0.1482, 0.1482, 0.053, 0.0723, 0.1693, 0.3498, 0.2622, 0.269, 0.2672, 0.1729, 0.207, 0.1603, 0.0566, 0.0759, 0.009, 0.0247, 0.0669, 0.207, 0.1275, 0.1006, 0.1006, 0.0049, 0.0, 0.0063, -0.0054, -0.0054, 0.0597, 0.123, 0.1396, 0.132, 0.1338, 0.11, 0.1464, 0.0988, 0.1549, 0.1091, 0.1504, 0.1504, 0.1221, 0.0629, 0.1208, 0.053, -0.0229, 0.0018, -0.0117, -0.1087, -0.1841, -0.2048, -0.1823, -0.2281, -0.3276, -0.2048, -0.2101, -0.238, -0.2622, -0.3269, -0.2775, -0.2775, -0.3, -0.2735, -0.2546, -0.2851, -0.2806, -0.26, -0.2084, -0.163, -0.2178, -0.2057, -0.2384, -0.2025, -0.238, -0.2362, -0.2097, -0.2371, -0.2393, -0.2784, -0.2739, -0.2753, -0.2717, -0.2964, -0.308, -0.3318, -0.2869, -0.2995, -0.3202, -0.3529, -0.4019, -0.4207, -0.3696, -0.3938, -0.3628, -0.3628, -0.3624, -0.3785, -0.3476, -0.3574, -0.3408, -0.3206, -0.2425, -0.1419, -0.1266, -0.1105, -0.1181, -0.1805, -0.1747, -0.2429, -0.2542, -0.2407, -0.264, -0.278, -0.2164, -0.2142, -0.2052, -0.1796, -0.0979, -0.1765, -0.1495, -0.079, -0.1437, -0.1731, -0.1347, -0.1985, -0.2537, -0.2833, -0.242, -0.0103, 0.1863, 0.1863, 0.1255, 0.1055, 0.2137, 0.1468, 0.1509, 0.207, 0.0819, 0.0849, -0.0714, -0.0227, -0.1159, -0.1269, -0.0736, -0.0579, 0.0193, -0.0732, -0.0909, -0.0409, -0.0409, -0.04, -0.0445]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2003918887688327237", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-24T20:01:08+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author confirms an active short position in TSLA.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@TeyKiam I am short.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Love to follow you if you short tsla. Else is just BS", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "TeyKiam", "ret_m1d": 0.0003296326001673844, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0003296326001673844, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003834976338493834, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0037556485266737605, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0035053437383264496, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003426015926506376, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.07350637232061918, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07350637232061918, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06125224520942507, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04756631429017033, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012254127111194113, "bench_c_p1w": -0.025940058030448854, "ret_p1m": -0.07424806138874351, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07424806138874351, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07222022359123703, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07449281251739803, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.002027837797506482, "bench_c_p1m": 0.000244751128654519, "ret_p3m": -0.2153893471520416, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2153893471520416, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1672851701847985, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11547271374786772, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04810417696724312, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0999166334041739, "ret_p6m": -0.17492790426408034, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17492790426408034, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.26231219525809335, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13255384206017795, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08738429099401301, "bench_c_p6m": -0.042374062203902385, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07424806138874351, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07222022359123703, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07449281251739803, "price_path": [-0.0927, -0.0869, -0.0838, -0.0534, -0.1018, -0.1145, -0.0662, -0.1078, -0.0962, -0.1027, -0.1481, -0.102, -0.1157, -0.1035, -0.1167, -0.095, -0.0782, -0.0882, -0.0957, -0.075, -0.1065, -0.0679, -0.0512, -0.0492, -0.0933, -0.0594, -0.0351, -0.0848, -0.0481, -0.0814, -0.1151, -0.0828, -0.0943, -0.1129, -0.1718, -0.167, -0.1576, -0.1734, -0.1677, -0.1858, -0.1943, -0.1393, -0.136, -0.1212, -0.1212, -0.1138, -0.1138, -0.1157, -0.0796, -0.0636, -0.0626, -0.0944, -0.0829, -0.0699, -0.0793, -0.0545, -0.0208, 0.0092, -0.0374, -0.0042, -0.0087, 0.0069, 0.0003, 0.0, 0.0, -0.021, -0.0531, -0.0638, -0.0735, -0.0735, -0.0975, -0.0695, -0.108, -0.1112, -0.1022, -0.0832, -0.0751, -0.0787, -0.0952, -0.0965, -0.0987, -0.0987, -0.1363, -0.1112, -0.0742, -0.0749, -0.1034, -0.1123, -0.1111, -0.1418, -0.1133, -0.131, -0.1307, -0.1636, -0.1817, -0.153, -0.1403, -0.124, -0.1177, -0.1408, -0.14, -0.14, -0.154, -0.1526, -0.1518, -0.1516, -0.1763, -0.1566, -0.1401, -0.1583, -0.1708, -0.1691, -0.1915, -0.1637, -0.1645, -0.1827, -0.1787, -0.1775, -0.1598, -0.1862, -0.1941, -0.1851, -0.1774, -0.1908, -0.2165, -0.2419, -0.2154, -0.2109, -0.2049, -0.2334, -0.2546, -0.2681, -0.2341, -0.2145, -0.2571, -0.2571, -0.2731, -0.2858, -0.2929, -0.288, -0.2811, -0.274, -0.2497, -0.1925, -0.1988, -0.1747, -0.1914, -0.2039, -0.2017, -0.2301, -0.2248, -0.2199, -0.2253, -0.232, -0.2138, -0.1948, -0.1914, -0.1978, -0.1786, -0.1516, -0.1175, -0.0832, -0.107, -0.0827, -0.0867, -0.1301, -0.1554, -0.1675, -0.1404, -0.1392, -0.1224, -0.1224, -0.1067, -0.0928, -0.0892, -0.1022, -0.1432, -0.127, -0.1271, -0.1379, -0.1945, -0.1575, -0.1828, -0.2139, -0.1777, -0.1627, -0.153, -0.1663, -0.1834, -0.1749]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1990438924204835280", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-17T15:16:34+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is valued at 30x revenues/gross profits, will again lose money in 2026 and is only guiding for profitability in 2028 at the earliest. SELL SELL SELL", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Short OPEN: 30x rev/GP valuation unjustified given losses through 2026 and no profitability until 2028 at earliest.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "MY $OPEN comments are normally focused on the fundamentals, not the share price (as opposed to the bulls who only focus in the share price and narrative.) \nHowever, for all the bulls who were hailing the warrant issue as some type of brilliant move, the warrant issue has come and gone. \n@APompliano @ericjackson \n@dayetweets @m3_melody \nAgain, CHEAP gimmick!!!\nNow back to our regularly scheduled programming.\n$OPEN is valued at 30x revenues/gross profits, will again lose money in 2026 and is only guiding for profitability in 2028 at the earliest. \n\nSELL SELL SELL", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.035714250959391514, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.035714250959391514, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.026310292902597565, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.029077095384222318, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.009403958056793948, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006637155575169196, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04081634763179798, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04081634763179798, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.032418794288003094, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.044503645587827156, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008397553343794883, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0036872979560291785, "ret_p1w": -0.01913266485306364, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01913266485306364, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.02372952885677937, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.026015601783334397, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004596864003715728, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0068829369302707555, "ret_p1m": -0.14158164692739283, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.14158164692739283, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1614113143626842, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.13838600795315115, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019829667435291354, "bench_c_p1m": -0.003195638974241688, "ret_p3m": -0.44132652688850627, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.44132652688850627, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4677857443852673, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.5066785665608711, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.026459217496761056, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0653520396723648, "ret_p6m": -0.39923470070440525, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.39923470070440525, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5144767305910936, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5145279136250915, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1152420298866883, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11529321292068628, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.44132652688850627, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.4677857443852673, "alpha_c_stated": 0.5066785665608711, "price_path": [-0.5893, -0.5408, -0.361, -0.4209, -0.4005, -0.4872, -0.4554, -0.4324, -0.4324, -0.3508, -0.3457, -0.2398, -0.1518, -0.2296, -0.2207, -0.2526, 0.3418, 0.1569, 0.2111, 0.1378, 0.3023, 0.2679, 0.2207, 0.0689, -0.0957, 0.0497, 0.1594, 0.1237, 0.0459, 0.0166, 0.0281, 0.0217, 0.0344, 0.1837, 0.1849, 0.0829, 0.0383, -0.0344, -0.0727, -0.0255, -0.0587, -0.0931, -0.0867, -0.0599, -0.1122, -0.1301, -0.1033, 0.0166, 0.0408, 0.0166, -0.0242, -0.0638, -0.0089, -0.0319, -0.1173, -0.0778, -0.1633, -0.1633, 0.0166, 0.0816, 0.1952, 0.0918, 0.0357, 0.0, -0.0408, -0.1467, -0.2143, -0.139, -0.0191, -0.0128, -0.0077, -0.0077, -0.0179, -0.0893, -0.1084, -0.1148, -0.0332, -0.088, -0.1008, -0.0548, -0.1071, -0.1008, -0.1633, -0.1747, -0.1416, -0.2194, -0.199, -0.1888, -0.1811, -0.2003, -0.199, -0.199, -0.2334, -0.2564, -0.2551, -0.2564, -0.2564, -0.2258, -0.1939, -0.1161, -0.2194, -0.1798, -0.0702, -0.1046, -0.1365, -0.1531, -0.1964, -0.1492, -0.1492, -0.1849, -0.1735, -0.1811, -0.2334, -0.2513, -0.2589, -0.2653, -0.2883, -0.3431, -0.3852, -0.3457, -0.3622, -0.4005, -0.3776, -0.3699, -0.4018, -0.3929, -0.4413, -0.433, -0.433, -0.4477, -0.4094, -0.4069, -0.3622, -0.3903, -0.3482, -0.3648, -0.3099, -0.3087, -0.3559, -0.3661, -0.3776, -0.3393, -0.3622, -0.352, -0.361, -0.3278, -0.3827, -0.3686, -0.3393, -0.2908, -0.3265, -0.3444, -0.3737, -0.3355, -0.3393, -0.3495, -0.375, -0.3878, -0.4349, -0.4031, -0.4171, -0.3954, -0.3954, -0.412, -0.4196, -0.4082, -0.4503, -0.449, -0.4439, -0.4247, -0.3852, -0.3278, -0.3253, -0.3176, -0.3048, -0.3074, -0.3342, -0.2972, -0.3125, -0.301, -0.2883, -0.3138, -0.3061, -0.3457, -0.3329, -0.3036, -0.3214, -0.361, -0.3814, -0.3992]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989082737672876354", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-13T21:27:34+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I think $TSLA easily goes below 200. The emperor is now wearing no clothes.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA, expects price to fall below $200; cites fundamental deterioration.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@MikeJ95714567 I am not making short term calls. I think $TSLA easily goes below 200.\nThe emperor is now wearing no clothes.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Good short term call.  But you have to understand the context that shorts like Gordon Johnson, Dick Chanos, and many others have been calling for the stock to implode for the 15 years plus.\n\nUnlike them, I hope you figure out when to get out of your position.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "BF67420", "ret_m1d": -0.0058365669185533875, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0058365669185533875, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0060004181346884344, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01064408854382437, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004807521625270983, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011302107716671506, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011302107716671506, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020618455232186972, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.020700482738195358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009398375021523853, "ret_p1w": -0.03279339573505624, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03279339573505624, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013595052235132021, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009448939789045818, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023344455946010423, "ret_p1m": 0.175491505833963, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12104994010517256, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05444156572879044, "ret_p3m": 0.05915662804276711, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03708219761959586, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022074430423171254, "ret_p6m": 0.10053170095928676, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10053170095928676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.005996684684012932, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.062402347566690386, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03812935339259638, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12104994010517256, "price_path": [-0.1856, -0.199, -0.2083, -0.1591, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1354, -0.1444, -0.1743, -0.1743, -0.1855, -0.1738, -0.1628, -0.1323, -0.1433, -0.1419, -0.1399, -0.0879, -0.0208, 0.0141, 0.0427, 0.0532, 0.0309, 0.0537, 0.0738, 0.0532, 0.0951, 0.0471, 0.0892, 0.0961, 0.0998, 0.1363, 0.0783, 0.063, 0.1209, 0.0711, 0.0849, 0.0771, 0.0226, 0.078, 0.0616, 0.0762, 0.0603, 0.0865, 0.1065, 0.0946, 0.0856, 0.1104, 0.0726, 0.1189, 0.139, 0.1414, 0.0884, 0.1291, 0.1583, 0.0987, 0.1427, 0.1028, 0.0622, 0.1011, 0.0872, 0.0649, -0.0058, 0.0, 0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0009, -0.0226, -0.0328, 0.0332, 0.0372, 0.055, 0.055, 0.0639, 0.0638, 0.0616, 0.1048, 0.1241, 0.1253, 0.0871, 0.101, 0.1165, 0.1052, 0.1351, 0.1755, 0.2115, 0.1556, 0.1954, 0.1901, 0.2087, 0.2008, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.1752, 0.1367, 0.1239, 0.1122, 0.1122, 0.0834, 0.117, 0.0708, 0.0669, 0.0778, 0.1006, 0.1103, 0.106, 0.0862, 0.0846, 0.082, 0.082, 0.0368, 0.067, 0.1113, 0.1106, 0.0763, 0.0657, 0.067, 0.0302, 0.0644, 0.0432, 0.0436, 0.0041, -0.0177, 0.0167, 0.0321, 0.0516, 0.0592, 0.0315, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0155, 0.0172, 0.0182, 0.0185, -0.0112, 0.0124, 0.0323, 0.0105, -0.0046, -0.0025, -0.0295, 0.0039, 0.003, -0.0188, -0.014, -0.0126, 0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0325, -0.0217, -0.0126, -0.0286, -0.0595, -0.09, -0.0581, -0.0527, -0.0455, -0.0797, -0.1052, -0.1214, -0.0806, -0.0571, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1274, -0.1427, -0.1511, -0.1452, -0.137, -0.1284, -0.0993, -0.0307, -0.0382, -0.0092, -0.0293, -0.0443, -0.0416, -0.0758, -0.0694, -0.0635, -0.0701, -0.078, -0.0562, -0.0335, -0.0293, -0.037, -0.0139, 0.0184, 0.0594, 0.1005]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1987284486422471139", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-08T22:21:58+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am paying attention to the collapse in sales and earnings of $TSLA. 4q and 2026 will be a complete disaster.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Short TSLA: collapsing sales/earnings, Q4 and 2026 seen as complete disasters; fundamentals will override bullish narratives.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@TravisAbbott429 I am paying attention to the collapse in sales and earnings of $TSLA. \n4q and 2026 will be a complete disaster. \nUltimately profits trump narratives.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Energy is growing massively. Pay attention. Tesla has their own lithium refinery now as well. Try and keep up.. theyre innovating and expanding faster than your hatred can make excuses for itself.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "TravisAbbott429", "ret_m1d": -0.035285182007056215, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.035285182007056215, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.01992065572893076, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.022312227090117265, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.015364526278125457, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01297295491693895, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.01260026442672324, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01260026442672324, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.014889622281261672, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.015069244789544745, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002289357854538432, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0024689803628215046, "ret_p1w": -0.08155334695016492, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08155334695016492, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05841123535485182, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.038700943925977116, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.023142111595313097, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0428524030241878, "ret_p1m": -0.00013475632170623086, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.00013475632170623086, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0024828156596943263, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.01241968924011927, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0023480593379880954, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0125544455618255, "ret_p3m": -0.1078544086120119, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1078544086120119, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10518701320405732, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09331533580134099, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.002667395407954576, "bench_c_p3m": -0.014539072810670906, "ret_p6m": -0.12546327626341425, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12546327626341425, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.19362951597462463, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11760949694407175, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06816623971121039, "bench_c_p6m": -0.007853779319342502, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1078544086120119, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10518701320405732, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09331533580134099, "price_path": [-0.2377, -0.2463, -0.2576, -0.2472, -0.2604, -0.2725, -0.281, -0.2363, -0.2215, -0.2101, -0.2148, -0.2229, -0.2501, -0.2501, -0.2602, -0.2496, -0.2397, -0.212, -0.222, -0.2207, -0.2189, -0.1716, -0.1107, -0.079, -0.053, -0.0435, -0.0637, -0.043, -0.0248, -0.0435, -0.0055, -0.0491, -0.0108, -0.0045, -0.0011, 0.032, -0.0207, -0.0346, 0.018, -0.0273, -0.0147, -0.0218, -0.0713, -0.021, -0.0359, -0.0226, -0.037, -0.0133, 0.0049, -0.0059, -0.0141, 0.0084, -0.0259, 0.0161, 0.0344, 0.0366, -0.0115, 0.0254, 0.052, -0.0022, 0.0378, 0.0015, -0.0353, 0.0, -0.0126, -0.0329, -0.0971, -0.0918, -0.0816, -0.0988, -0.0926, -0.1123, -0.1216, -0.0617, -0.058, -0.0419, -0.0419, -0.0338, -0.0339, -0.0359, 0.0034, 0.0209, 0.0219, -0.0127, -0.0001, 0.014, 0.0037, 0.0308, 0.0676, 0.1003, 0.0495, 0.0857, 0.0808, 0.0977, 0.0906, 0.0902, 0.0902, 0.0673, 0.0324, 0.0207, 0.0101, 0.0101, -0.0161, 0.0145, -0.0276, -0.031, -0.0212, -0.0005, 0.0084, 0.0044, -0.0135, -0.015, -0.0174, -0.0174, -0.0584, -0.031, 0.0093, 0.0086, -0.0225, -0.0322, -0.0309, -0.0644, -0.0333, -0.0526, -0.0523, -0.0881, -0.1079, -0.0766, -0.0627, -0.045, -0.0381, -0.0632, -0.0624, -0.0624, -0.0777, -0.0762, -0.0753, -0.075, -0.102, -0.0805, -0.0625, -0.0823, -0.096, -0.0941, -0.1186, -0.0882, -0.0891, -0.1089, -0.1046, -0.1033, -0.084, -0.1128, -0.1214, -0.1116, -0.1032, -0.1178, -0.1458, -0.1736, -0.1446, -0.1397, -0.1331, -0.1642, -0.1873, -0.202, -0.165, -0.1437, -0.1901, -0.1901, -0.2076, -0.2214, -0.2291, -0.2237, -0.2162, -0.2085, -0.182, -0.1197, -0.1265, -0.1002, -0.1184, -0.1321, -0.1296, -0.1606, -0.1548, -0.1495, -0.1554, -0.1627, -0.1428, -0.1222, -0.1184, -0.1255]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1986857346853707884", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-07T18:04:40+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect the stock to get cut in half. I went short yesterday.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA: earnings estimates collapsing, 260x PE, 15x revenues, only unrealistic hopes supporting price; expects stock to halve.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Earnings estimates for $TSLA have been collapsing. 2025 consensus estimates were once over $8 and are now $1.65!\nGary, here is a fun fact for you. \nDid you know that CUMULATIVE EPS  SINCE INCEPTION have been a mere $9 for $TSLA. \nCombine that with the fact that $TSLA is now valued at 260x PE and 15x revenues. It is only unrealistic hopes/promises that are supporting the share price. I expect the stock to get cut in half. I went short yesterday.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Many $TSLA bulls ask me why there’s so little follow through in TSLA stock after seemingly big positive events, like yesterday’s shareholder vote overwhelmingly approving Elon’s comp plan by a 3-1 margin. TSLA has become more of a momentum stock this year rather than one driven https://t.co/EiHdh0skXH", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "garyblack00", "ret_m1d": 0.038158910103519794, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.038158910103519794, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03914241504805582, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03972758446467206, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015686743611522669, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03657576451501576, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03657576451501576, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020971485887872454, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.023432300025805874, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015604278627143309, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013143464489209888, "ret_p1w": -0.058600259717726644, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.058600259717726644, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.060030987464608776, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0375284261728005, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0014307277468821322, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021071833544926144, "ret_p1m": 0.023421488675521296, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.023421488675521296, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.004553199000984165, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.022912676653968456, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01886828967453713, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0005088120215528402, "ret_p3m": -0.054735471804313485, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.054735471804313485, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08044106070438295, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07515446659403413, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.025705588900069465, "bench_c_p3m": 0.020418994789720646, "ret_p6m": -0.08616590658105283, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.08616590658105283, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.1623665819461847, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.08837271113807688, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07620067536513186, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0022068045570240447, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.023421488675521296, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.004553199000984165, "alpha_c_stated": -0.022912676653968456, "price_path": [-0.2065, -0.2099, -0.2187, -0.2304, -0.2197, -0.2333, -0.2459, -0.2547, -0.2084, -0.1931, -0.1812, -0.1861, -0.1945, -0.2227, -0.2227, -0.2332, -0.2222, -0.2118, -0.1832, -0.1935, -0.1922, -0.1903, -0.1413, -0.0782, -0.0454, -0.0184, -0.0085, -0.0295, -0.008, 0.0109, -0.0085, 0.0309, -0.0143, 0.0253, 0.0319, 0.0354, 0.0697, 0.0151, 0.0007, 0.0552, 0.0083, 0.0213, 0.014, -0.0373, 0.0149, -0.0007, 0.0131, -0.0018, 0.0228, 0.0417, 0.0305, 0.022, 0.0453, 0.0098, 0.0533, 0.0722, 0.0745, 0.0246, 0.063, 0.0904, 0.0343, 0.0758, 0.0382, 0.0, 0.0366, 0.0235, 0.0025, -0.0641, -0.0586, -0.048, -0.0658, -0.0594, -0.0798, -0.0895, -0.0273, -0.0236, -0.0068, -0.0068, 0.0015, 0.0014, -0.0007, 0.0401, 0.0582, 0.0593, 0.0234, 0.0364, 0.0511, 0.0404, 0.0685, 0.1066, 0.1405, 0.0879, 0.1254, 0.1203, 0.1379, 0.1305, 0.1301, 0.1301, 0.1063, 0.0701, 0.058, 0.047, 0.047, 0.0199, 0.0516, 0.008, 0.0044, 0.0146, 0.0361, 0.0453, 0.0412, 0.0225, 0.0211, 0.0186, 0.0186, -0.0239, 0.0045, 0.0462, 0.0455, 0.0132, 0.0032, 0.0045, -0.0302, 0.0021, -0.018, -0.0176, -0.0547, -0.0752, -0.0429, -0.0284, -0.01, -0.0029, -0.029, -0.0281, -0.0281, -0.044, -0.0424, -0.0415, -0.0412, -0.0691, -0.0469, -0.0282, -0.0488, -0.0629, -0.061, -0.0864, -0.0549, -0.0558, -0.0763, -0.0718, -0.0705, -0.0505, -0.0803, -0.0892, -0.0791, -0.0704, -0.0855, -0.1146, -0.1433, -0.1133, -0.1082, -0.1014, -0.1337, -0.1576, -0.1728, -0.1345, -0.1124, -0.1605, -0.1605, -0.1786, -0.1929, -0.2009, -0.1953, -0.1876, -0.1795, -0.1521, -0.0875, -0.0946, -0.0673, -0.0862, -0.1003, -0.0978, -0.1299, -0.1239, -0.1184, -0.1246, -0.1321, -0.1115, -0.0901, -0.0862]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989068503652135290", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-13T20:31:01+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect the stock to completely implode", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA; expects the stock to completely implode.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@MikeJ95714567 Unlike you, daily fluctuations don't mean much to me.\nBut since you ask, down 7% today for $TSLA  is not too shabby. I expect the stock to completely implode.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 How's that short position going today?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "BF67420", "ret_m1d": 0.07117096585529392, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07117096585529392, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05429705540413221, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04556751172725604, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01687391045116171, "bench_c_m1d": 0.025603454128037884, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005870832424868633, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.005870832424868633, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006034656798180937, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010655352367051063, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0001638243733123046, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00478451994218243, "ret_p1w": -0.016816287500356797, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.016816287500356797, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.012214691789367071, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.029907879155392614, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02903097928972387, "bench_c_p1w": -0.04672416665574941, "ret_p1m": 0.14171994976165325, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.14171994976165325, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12725651945509653, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10120278333126165, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.014463430306556724, "bench_c_p1m": 0.040517166430391605, "ret_p3m": 0.057762635351106706, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.057762635351106706, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02484034643615618, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03565487408324852, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.032922288914950526, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022107761267858184, "ret_p6m": 0.06557381156125741, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.06557381156125741, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.03825924838042338, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.025227747694347435, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1038330599416808, "bench_c_p6m": 0.040346063866909976, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.14171994976165325, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.12725651945509653, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10120278333126165, "price_path": [-0.1662, -0.1808, -0.1943, -0.2037, -0.1542, -0.1378, -0.1252, -0.1303, -0.1393, -0.1695, -0.1695, -0.1807, -0.1689, -0.1579, -0.1272, -0.1383, -0.1369, -0.1348, -0.0825, -0.0151, 0.02, 0.0488, 0.0594, 0.037, 0.0599, 0.0802, 0.0594, 0.1015, 0.0532, 0.0955, 0.1025, 0.1063, 0.143, 0.0846, 0.0693, 0.1275, 0.0774, 0.0913, 0.0835, 0.0286, 0.0844, 0.0678, 0.0825, 0.0666, 0.0928, 0.113, 0.101, 0.092, 0.1169, 0.0789, 0.1255, 0.1457, 0.1481, 0.0948, 0.1357, 0.1651, 0.1052, 0.1495, 0.1093, 0.0685, 0.1076, 0.0936, 0.0712, 0.0, 0.0059, 0.0172, -0.0018, 0.005, -0.0168, -0.0271, 0.0393, 0.0433, 0.0612, 0.0612, 0.0701, 0.07, 0.0678, 0.1113, 0.1307, 0.1319, 0.0935, 0.1074, 0.123, 0.1117, 0.1417, 0.1824, 0.2186, 0.1624, 0.2024, 0.197, 0.2158, 0.2079, 0.2075, 0.2075, 0.1821, 0.1434, 0.1305, 0.1187, 0.1187, 0.0898, 0.1236, 0.077, 0.0732, 0.0841, 0.107, 0.1168, 0.1125, 0.0926, 0.091, 0.0883, 0.0883, 0.0429, 0.0733, 0.1178, 0.1171, 0.0826, 0.0719, 0.0733, 0.0362, 0.0707, 0.0493, 0.0497, 0.01, -0.0119, 0.0227, 0.0381, 0.0578, 0.0654, 0.0375, 0.0384, 0.0384, 0.0215, 0.0232, 0.0242, 0.0245, -0.0054, 0.0184, 0.0383, 0.0164, 0.0013, 0.0033, -0.0238, 0.0098, 0.0089, -0.0131, -0.0082, -0.0068, 0.0145, -0.0174, -0.0268, -0.016, -0.0068, -0.0229, -0.054, -0.0847, -0.0526, -0.0472, -0.0399, -0.0743, -0.0999, -0.1162, -0.0752, -0.0516, -0.103, -0.103, -0.1223, -0.1377, -0.1461, -0.1402, -0.1319, -0.1233, -0.094, -0.025, -0.0326, -0.0034, -0.0236, -0.0387, -0.036, -0.0703, -0.0639, -0.058, -0.0646, -0.0726, -0.0506, -0.0278, -0.0236, -0.0314, -0.0081, 0.0244, 0.0656]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2001049942219952556", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-16T22:00:58+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA short. Driverless robotaxis ain't happening any time soon.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA; robotaxi thesis won't materialize soon, rejecting parent's $500-$1000+ bull case.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@A5T3R0lD $TSLA short. Driverless robotaxis ain’t happening any time soon. https://t.co/HGhpxZioDn", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "$TSLA WILL HIT $500 SHORTLY, AND THEN PROB $650-$850 NEXT YEAR, AND THEN PROBABLY OVER $1000 IN 2027. \n\nWHAT HAPPENED TO BEARS LIKE GORDON JOHNSON AND OTHERS CALLING FOR LIKE $TSLA TO HIT LIKE $20. 🤣WHAT A BUNCH OF CLOWNS 🤡", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "A5T3R0lD", "ret_m1d": 0.04840986740665776, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04840986740665776, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.037283847214411026, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03671050903059703, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011126020192246733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011699358376060731, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.034477560704677446, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.034477560704677446, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.026926297994925186, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01937635744326749, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00755126270975226, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015101203261409957, "ret_p1w": 0.03882203431010134, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03882203431010134, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.007514308278414816, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.01963063127611786, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03130772603168652, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01919140303398348, "ret_p1m": -0.061400509013808, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08150647070589379, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03408622920006743, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020105961692085783, "ret_p3m": -0.15344778219517563, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15344778219517563, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.152862346912081, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08625857547753502, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0005854352830946263, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06718920671764061, "ret_p6m": -0.1457647015487249, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1457647015487249, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2508597300601656, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11460455895883437, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1050950285114407, "bench_c_p6m": -0.031160142589890527, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08150647070589379, "price_path": [-0.0882, -0.0707, -0.0886, -0.0524, -0.0939, -0.0575, -0.0515, -0.0482, -0.0167, -0.0669, -0.0801, -0.03, -0.0731, -0.0611, -0.0679, -0.1151, -0.0671, -0.0814, -0.0687, -0.0824, -0.0598, -0.0424, -0.0528, -0.0605, -0.0391, -0.0718, -0.0318, -0.0144, -0.0123, -0.0581, -0.0229, 0.0024, -0.0492, -0.0111, -0.0457, -0.0808, -0.0471, -0.0592, -0.0785, -0.1397, -0.1346, -0.1249, -0.1413, -0.1354, -0.1542, -0.163, -0.1059, -0.1024, -0.0871, -0.0871, -0.0794, -0.0794, -0.0814, -0.0439, -0.0272, -0.0262, -0.0592, -0.0473, -0.0338, -0.0436, -0.0178, 0.0172, 0.0484, 0.0, 0.0345, 0.0298, 0.0459, 0.0392, 0.0388, 0.0388, 0.017, -0.0163, -0.0275, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0625, -0.0334, -0.0734, -0.0767, -0.0673, -0.0476, -0.0392, -0.0429, -0.0601, -0.0614, -0.0637, -0.0637, -0.1027, -0.0767, -0.0383, -0.039, -0.0686, -0.0778, -0.0766, -0.1085, -0.0789, -0.0973, -0.0969, -0.1311, -0.1499, -0.1202, -0.1069, -0.09, -0.0834, -0.1074, -0.1066, -0.1066, -0.1212, -0.1197, -0.1189, -0.1186, -0.1443, -0.1239, -0.1067, -0.1256, -0.1386, -0.1368, -0.1601, -0.1312, -0.1321, -0.1509, -0.1468, -0.1456, -0.1272, -0.1546, -0.1628, -0.1534, -0.1455, -0.1594, -0.1861, -0.2125, -0.1849, -0.1803, -0.174, -0.2036, -0.2256, -0.2397, -0.2044, -0.1841, -0.2283, -0.2283, -0.2449, -0.2581, -0.2654, -0.2603, -0.2532, -0.2458, -0.2206, -0.1612, -0.1677, -0.1426, -0.16, -0.173, -0.1707, -0.2002, -0.1947, -0.1896, -0.1953, -0.2022, -0.1833, -0.1636, -0.16, -0.1667, -0.1467, -0.1187, -0.0833, -0.0476, -0.0724, -0.0471, -0.0513, -0.0963, -0.1226, -0.1351, -0.107, -0.1057, -0.0883, -0.0883, -0.0721, -0.0576, -0.0538, -0.0674, -0.11, -0.0931, -0.0932, -0.1045, -0.1632, -0.1248, -0.1511, -0.1833, -0.1458]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1991188704518369469", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-19T16:55:56+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "OPEN is a SELL, period. I am focused on the fundamentals.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisive sell call on Opendoor; fundamentals-based, consistent bearish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You were saying?\n\nI don’t “flip” negative. I am consistent - OPEN is a SELL, period. I am focused on the fundamentals. \nYou, on the other hand, post breathlessly in hyperbolic prose multiple times a day. You have proven consistently that you are unable to call the stock on a daily basis, so stop wasting your time!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@LloydReeves13B @gnoble79 Every time George flips negative, the stock ends up climbing. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "BlueDot_Techs", "ret_m1d": 0.12406575734035208, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.12406575734035208, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12791406728254384, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.11616639431652498, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0038483099421917633, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0078993630238271, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07922275116221034, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07922275116221034, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0639805238455623, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07576688859933256, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.015242227316648038, "bench_c_p1d": -0.003455862562877776, "ret_p1w": 0.16292976730418163, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.16292976730418163, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.13719895433709706, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.1392317749082974, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02573081296708457, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023697992395884215, "ret_p1m": -0.06128547741484702, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06128547741484702, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08217181834784015, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06054494234248731, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02088634093299313, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0007405350723597159, "ret_p3m": -0.33557546582321374, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.33557546582321374, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.36747029874548853, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.4211200278595575, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.031894832922274796, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08554456203634375, "ret_p6m": -0.331838602098782, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.331838602098782, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.46735927557345414, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.434979862934183, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13552067347467212, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10314126083540098, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06128547741484702, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08217181834784015, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06054494234248731, "price_path": [-0.2511, -0.3214, -0.2975, -0.3991, -0.3617, -0.3348, -0.3348, -0.2392, -0.2332, -0.1091, -0.006, -0.0972, -0.0867, -0.1241, 0.5725, 0.3558, 0.4193, 0.3333, 0.5262, 0.4858, 0.4305, 0.2526, 0.0598, 0.2302, 0.3587, 0.3169, 0.2257, 0.1913, 0.2048, 0.1973, 0.2123, 0.3871, 0.3886, 0.2691, 0.2167, 0.1315, 0.0867, 0.142, 0.1031, 0.0628, 0.0703, 0.1016, 0.0404, 0.0194, 0.0508, 0.1913, 0.2197, 0.1913, 0.1435, 0.0972, 0.1614, 0.1345, 0.0344, 0.0807, -0.0194, -0.0194, 0.1913, 0.2676, 0.4006, 0.2795, 0.2138, 0.1719, 0.1241, 0.0, -0.0792, 0.009, 0.1495, 0.157, 0.1629, 0.1629, 0.151, 0.0673, 0.0448, 0.0374, 0.133, 0.0688, 0.0538, 0.1076, 0.0463, 0.0538, -0.0194, -0.0329, 0.006, -0.0852, -0.0613, -0.0493, -0.0404, -0.0628, -0.0613, -0.0613, -0.1016, -0.1286, -0.1271, -0.1286, -0.1286, -0.0927, -0.0553, 0.0359, -0.0852, -0.0389, 0.0897, 0.0493, 0.012, -0.0075, -0.0583, -0.003, -0.003, -0.0448, -0.0314, -0.0404, -0.1016, -0.1226, -0.1315, -0.139, -0.1659, -0.2302, -0.2795, -0.2332, -0.2526, -0.2975, -0.2706, -0.2616, -0.299, -0.2885, -0.3453, -0.3356, -0.3356, -0.3528, -0.3079, -0.3049, -0.2526, -0.2855, -0.2362, -0.2556, -0.1913, -0.1898, -0.2451, -0.2571, -0.2706, -0.2257, -0.2526, -0.2407, -0.2511, -0.2123, -0.2765, -0.2601, -0.2257, -0.1689, -0.2108, -0.2317, -0.2661, -0.2212, -0.2257, -0.2377, -0.2676, -0.2825, -0.3378, -0.3004, -0.3169, -0.2915, -0.2915, -0.3109, -0.3199, -0.3064, -0.3558, -0.3543, -0.3483, -0.3259, -0.2795, -0.2123, -0.2093, -0.2003, -0.1854, -0.1883, -0.2197, -0.1764, -0.1943, -0.1809, -0.1659, -0.1958, -0.1868, -0.2332, -0.2182, -0.1839, -0.2048, -0.2511, -0.275, -0.296, -0.3154, -0.3318]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2001327827577454769", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-17T16:25:11+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SHORT $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA; driverless robotaxis won't materialize anytime soon, undermining the bull thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA Driverless Robotaxis ain’t happening anytime soon. \nSHORT $TSLA\n\n@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @TommyThornton @MichaelMOTTCM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04840986740665776, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04840986740665776, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.037283847214411026, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03671050903059703, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011126020192246733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011699358376060731, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.034477560704677446, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.034477560704677446, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.026926297994925186, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01937635744326749, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00755126270975226, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015101203261409957, "ret_p1w": 0.03882203431010134, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03882203431010134, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.007514308278414816, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.01963063127611786, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03130772603168652, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01919140303398348, "ret_p1m": -0.061400509013808, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08150647070589379, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03408622920006743, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020105961692085783, "ret_p3m": -0.15344778219517563, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15344778219517563, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.152862346912081, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08625857547753502, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0005854352830946263, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06718920671764061, "ret_p6m": -0.1457647015487249, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1457647015487249, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2508597300601656, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11460455895883437, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1050950285114407, "bench_c_p6m": -0.031160142589890527, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08150647070589379, "price_path": [-0.0882, -0.0707, -0.0886, -0.0524, -0.0939, -0.0575, -0.0515, -0.0482, -0.0167, -0.0669, -0.0801, -0.03, -0.0731, -0.0611, -0.0679, -0.1151, -0.0671, -0.0814, -0.0687, -0.0824, -0.0598, -0.0424, -0.0528, -0.0605, -0.0391, -0.0718, -0.0318, -0.0144, -0.0123, -0.0581, -0.0229, 0.0024, -0.0492, -0.0111, -0.0457, -0.0808, -0.0471, -0.0592, -0.0785, -0.1397, -0.1346, -0.1249, -0.1413, -0.1354, -0.1542, -0.163, -0.1059, -0.1024, -0.0871, -0.0871, -0.0794, -0.0794, -0.0814, -0.0439, -0.0272, -0.0262, -0.0592, -0.0473, -0.0338, -0.0436, -0.0178, 0.0172, 0.0484, 0.0, 0.0345, 0.0298, 0.0459, 0.0392, 0.0388, 0.0388, 0.017, -0.0163, -0.0275, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0625, -0.0334, -0.0734, -0.0767, -0.0673, -0.0476, -0.0392, -0.0429, -0.0601, -0.0614, -0.0637, -0.0637, -0.1027, -0.0767, -0.0383, -0.039, -0.0686, -0.0778, -0.0766, -0.1085, -0.0789, -0.0973, -0.0969, -0.1311, -0.1499, -0.1202, -0.1069, -0.09, -0.0834, -0.1074, -0.1066, -0.1066, -0.1212, -0.1197, -0.1189, -0.1186, -0.1443, -0.1239, -0.1067, -0.1256, -0.1386, -0.1368, -0.1601, -0.1312, -0.1321, -0.1509, -0.1468, -0.1456, -0.1272, -0.1546, -0.1628, -0.1534, -0.1455, -0.1594, -0.1861, -0.2125, -0.1849, -0.1803, -0.174, -0.2036, -0.2256, -0.2397, -0.2044, -0.1841, -0.2283, -0.2283, -0.2449, -0.2581, -0.2654, -0.2603, -0.2532, -0.2458, -0.2206, -0.1612, -0.1677, -0.1426, -0.16, -0.173, -0.1707, -0.2002, -0.1947, -0.1896, -0.1953, -0.2022, -0.1833, -0.1636, -0.16, -0.1667, -0.1467, -0.1187, -0.0833, -0.0476, -0.0724, -0.0471, -0.0513, -0.0963, -0.1226, -0.1351, -0.107, -0.1057, -0.0883, -0.0883, -0.0721, -0.0576, -0.0538, -0.0674, -0.11, -0.0931, -0.0932, -0.1045, -0.1632, -0.1248, -0.1511, -0.1833, -0.1458]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1968139847400411192", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-17T02:28:00+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect the stock to do very badly in the coming years. Tesla is valued on 13x sales and 240x earnings... On a comparable basis $TSLA would only be worth $25 per share.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish TSLA to $25 on fundamentals vs 240x earnings valuation; bearish OPEN on 14 years of no profits and 22x EV/sales for house flipping.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Thank you for that question. That is the best question that anyone has EVER asked me about $TSLA . I had to think hard about a good answer. \n\n$TSLA has consistently undershot expectations in terms of fundamental performance. \nI have been correct on the fundamentals, but wrong on the stock. Investors have been chasing narrative over cash flow. The $TSLA story has captured the imagination of investors. Normally stock prices follow earnings. Not in this case. Never did I imagine that a company generating $97b in revenues and $5.5 of profits (both 2025 consensus estimates) would be valued at $1.3 T!\nGoing forward I believe that things will get much worse for $TSLA as tax incentives go away and competition intensifies. Despite eternal promises from Musk, the non-automotive businesses are still incidental to the overall company. Also color me very skeptical on FSD. Tesla remains a car company IMHO.\nTesla is valued on 13x sales and 240x earnings. This compares with perhaps 1x sales and 9x earnings for the typical auto company. On a comparable basis $TSLA would only be worth $25 per share. I expect the stock to do very badly in the coming years. I would note that $TSLA is the same price as it was four years ago, having materially underperformed the market since late 2021.\n\nAs regards $OPEN , yes narrative and speculation may continue to drive the stock up, just as was the case for $AMC (but we all know how that ended). The share price may well continue to rise in the short run. I have no idea. That is also why I am not short. \n\nFundamentally $OPEN remains extremely challenged. In 14 years they have NEVER made money. Theirs is a low margin business in a fiercely competitive industry. 22x EV/sales for house flipping . No thanks. I struggle to see how they can generate profits to even remotely justify the current $9 share price - forget about $82. Hand waving, eliminating 1200 employees reflexively chanting 5x revenues, citing AI and mobilizing  “the army” is not going to sufficiently move the needle. Sorry general Eric. \n\nI am waiting for someone to make a back of the envelope case for the unit economics of their business going forward. Until then, I just don’t see it. \nI am reminded that book value per share is $.90 . Other valuation analysis  yield a similar number.\n\nThis is not about being a growth investor or a value investor or a technology investor. Peter Lynch would always tell us that In the long run and on average, stock prices follow earnings. While in the short term, earnings and stock prices may diverge, over the long term I still believe this is the case. \nI could have written a lot more, but this is enough for now. Again thanks for such a great question. I may well do a space on this topic. \n@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @Realtor_Stocks @1TradingDee @dayetweets @DavidDTawil @rusty__tillery @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @mcgill_s @OHare888 @APompliano @DougKass", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009956301085378372, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009956301085378372, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.011200116413534578, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.012481465038979622, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012438153281562059, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0025251639536012505, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.021157139806429193, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.021157139806429193, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.025829545286855993, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.016645022119491815, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0046724054804268, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004512117686937378, "ret_p1w": 0.03975490484127797, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03975490484127797, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03406177690692336, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.046160402160570935, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005693127934354614, "bench_c_p1w": -0.006405497319292963, "ret_p1m": 0.006786302418274159, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.006786302418274159, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0017928791175669812, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04296656942274124, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.004993423300707178, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03618026700446708, "ret_p3m": 0.116118005701354, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.116118005701354, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0805628246197796, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1065165390705467, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.035555181081574405, "bench_c_p3m": 0.009601466630807298, "ret_p6m": -0.07244159265273475, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.07244159265273475, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.0886741035475872, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.0008034394059431849, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.016232510894852448, "bench_c_p6m": -0.07324503205867794, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2435, -0.1812, -0.2005, -0.2309, -0.235, -0.2401, -0.2541, -0.2939, -0.2588, -0.2595, -0.2595, -0.3098, -0.3007, -0.3052, -0.2724, -0.2638, -0.2559, -0.2702, -0.2447, -0.25, -0.2259, -0.2286, -0.2201, -0.2191, -0.2831, -0.2578, -0.2355, -0.2458, -0.2508, -0.2761, -0.2894, -0.2738, -0.2751, -0.2488, -0.2432, -0.2259, -0.2039, -0.1996, -0.2031, -0.212, -0.2238, -0.213, -0.2267, -0.2394, -0.2483, -0.2016, -0.1861, -0.1742, -0.1791, -0.1876, -0.216, -0.216, -0.2266, -0.2155, -0.2051, -0.1762, -0.1866, -0.1852, -0.1833, -0.134, -0.0703, -0.0371, -0.01, 0.0, -0.0212, 0.0005, 0.0196, -0.0, 0.0398, -0.0058, 0.0341, 0.0407, 0.0443, 0.0789, 0.0238, 0.0093, 0.0643, 0.017, 0.0301, 0.0227, -0.029, 0.0236, 0.0079, 0.0218, 0.0068, 0.0316, 0.0507, 0.0393, 0.0308, 0.0543, 0.0185, 0.0624, 0.0815, 0.0837, 0.0334, 0.0721, 0.0998, 0.0432, 0.085, 0.0471, 0.0086, 0.0455, 0.0323, 0.0111, -0.0561, -0.0505, -0.0398, -0.0578, -0.0514, -0.0719, -0.0816, -0.019, -0.0152, 0.0017, 0.0017, 0.0101, 0.0101, 0.0079, 0.049, 0.0673, 0.0684, 0.0322, 0.0453, 0.0601, 0.0494, 0.0777, 0.1161, 0.1503, 0.0972, 0.135, 0.1299, 0.1476, 0.1402, 0.1398, 0.1398, 0.1158, 0.0793, 0.0671, 0.056, 0.056, 0.0287, 0.0606, 0.0167, 0.013, 0.0233, 0.045, 0.0542, 0.0501, 0.0313, 0.0298, 0.0273, 0.0273, -0.0155, 0.0131, 0.0552, 0.0545, 0.0219, 0.0118, 0.0131, -0.0218, 0.0107, -0.0095, -0.0092, -0.0466, -0.0673, -0.0346, -0.0201, -0.0015, 0.0057, -0.0206, -0.0198, -0.0198, -0.0358, -0.0341, -0.0332, -0.033, -0.0611, -0.0387, -0.0199, -0.0406, -0.0548, -0.0529, -0.0785, -0.0468, -0.0477, -0.0684, -0.0638, -0.0625, -0.0424, -0.0724]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1968139847400411192", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-09-17T02:28:00+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Fundamentally $OPEN remains extremely challenged. In 14 years they have NEVER made money... I struggle to see how they can generate profits to even remotely justify the current $9 share price", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish TSLA to $25 on fundamentals vs 240x earnings valuation; bearish OPEN on 14 years of no profits and 22x EV/sales for house flipping.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Thank you for that question. That is the best question that anyone has EVER asked me about $TSLA . I had to think hard about a good answer. \n\n$TSLA has consistently undershot expectations in terms of fundamental performance. \nI have been correct on the fundamentals, but wrong on the stock. Investors have been chasing narrative over cash flow. The $TSLA story has captured the imagination of investors. Normally stock prices follow earnings. Not in this case. Never did I imagine that a company generating $97b in revenues and $5.5 of profits (both 2025 consensus estimates) would be valued at $1.3 T!\nGoing forward I believe that things will get much worse for $TSLA as tax incentives go away and competition intensifies. Despite eternal promises from Musk, the non-automotive businesses are still incidental to the overall company. Also color me very skeptical on FSD. Tesla remains a car company IMHO.\nTesla is valued on 13x sales and 240x earnings. This compares with perhaps 1x sales and 9x earnings for the typical auto company. On a comparable basis $TSLA would only be worth $25 per share. I expect the stock to do very badly in the coming years. I would note that $TSLA is the same price as it was four years ago, having materially underperformed the market since late 2021.\n\nAs regards $OPEN , yes narrative and speculation may continue to drive the stock up, just as was the case for $AMC (but we all know how that ended). The share price may well continue to rise in the short run. I have no idea. That is also why I am not short. \n\nFundamentally $OPEN remains extremely challenged. In 14 years they have NEVER made money. Theirs is a low margin business in a fiercely competitive industry. 22x EV/sales for house flipping . No thanks. I struggle to see how they can generate profits to even remotely justify the current $9 share price - forget about $82. Hand waving, eliminating 1200 employees reflexively chanting 5x revenues, citing AI and mobilizing  “the army” is not going to sufficiently move the needle. Sorry general Eric. \n\nI am waiting for someone to make a back of the envelope case for the unit economics of their business going forward. Until then, I just don’t see it. \nI am reminded that book value per share is $.90 . Other valuation analysis  yield a similar number.\n\nThis is not about being a growth investor or a value investor or a technology investor. Peter Lynch would always tell us that In the long run and on average, stock prices follow earnings. While in the short term, earnings and stock prices may diverge, over the long term I still believe this is the case. \nI could have written a lot more, but this is enough for now. Again thanks for such a great question. I may well do a space on this topic. \n@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @Realtor_Stocks @1TradingDee @dayetweets @DavidDTawil @rusty__tillery @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @mcgill_s @OHare888 @APompliano @DougKass", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.1263467146947388, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.1263467146947388, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.127590530022895, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.12682255196365078, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012438153281562059, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00047583726891198275, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.026444706832016274, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.026444706832016274, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.031117112312443074, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02715855662592659, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0046724054804268, "bench_c_p1d": 0.000713849793910315, "ret_p1w": -0.19392756988373117, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.19392756988373117, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.19962069781808578, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.19053201841763034, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005693127934354614, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0033955514661008213, "ret_p1m": -0.303623887664078, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.303623887664078, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.3086173109647852, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.30502304452700724, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.004993423300707178, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0013991568629292406, "ret_p3m": -0.36630756454278135, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.36630756454278135, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.40186274562435575, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3470890155272237, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.035555181081574405, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01921854901555764, "ret_p6m": -0.5259549329574431, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5259549329574431, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5421874438522956, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5472657388199687, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.016232510894852448, "bench_c_p6m": 0.02131080586252554, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.9476, -0.9481, -0.9461, -0.9499, -0.9473, -0.9453, -0.9478, -0.9447, -0.9446, -0.9403, -0.9403, -0.9387, -0.9283, -0.9278, -0.9135, -0.9237, -0.9118, -0.8981, -0.8541, -0.8384, -0.7796, -0.6856, -0.7179, -0.7757, -0.763, -0.7512, -0.7708, -0.7992, -0.7973, -0.8198, -0.7943, -0.7591, -0.7532, -0.8139, -0.8188, -0.809, -0.7738, -0.7581, -0.763, -0.7023, -0.6895, -0.6298, -0.6454, -0.6846, -0.6474, -0.5093, -0.5553, -0.5397, -0.6063, -0.5818, -0.5642, -0.5642, -0.5015, -0.4976, -0.4163, -0.3487, -0.4084, -0.4016, -0.4261, 0.0304, -0.1117, -0.07, -0.1263, 0.0, -0.0264, -0.0627, -0.1792, -0.3056, -0.1939, -0.1097, -0.1371, -0.1969, -0.2194, -0.2106, -0.2155, -0.2057, -0.0911, -0.0901, -0.1685, -0.2027, -0.2586, -0.288, -0.2517, -0.2772, -0.3036, -0.2987, -0.2782, -0.3183, -0.332, -0.3115, -0.2194, -0.2008, -0.2194, -0.2507, -0.2811, -0.239, -0.2566, -0.3222, -0.2919, -0.3575, -0.3575, -0.2194, -0.1694, -0.0823, -0.1616, -0.2047, -0.2321, -0.2635, -0.3448, -0.3967, -0.3389, -0.2468, -0.2419, -0.238, -0.238, -0.2458, -0.3007, -0.3154, -0.3203, -0.2576, -0.2997, -0.3095, -0.2742, -0.3144, -0.3095, -0.3575, -0.3663, -0.3408, -0.4006, -0.3849, -0.3771, -0.3712, -0.3859, -0.3849, -0.3849, -0.4114, -0.429, -0.428, -0.429, -0.429, -0.4055, -0.381, -0.3213, -0.4006, -0.3702, -0.286, -0.3124, -0.3369, -0.3497, -0.383, -0.3467, -0.3467, -0.3741, -0.3653, -0.3712, -0.4114, -0.4251, -0.431, -0.4358, -0.4535, -0.4956, -0.5279, -0.4976, -0.5103, -0.5397, -0.522, -0.5162, -0.5406, -0.5338, -0.571, -0.5646, -0.5646, -0.5759, -0.5465, -0.5446, -0.5103, -0.5318, -0.4995, -0.5122, -0.4701, -0.4691, -0.5054, -0.5132, -0.522, -0.4927, -0.5103, -0.5024, -0.5093, -0.4838, -0.526]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2004931707795824998", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-27T15:05:43+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short Tesla", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Direct short call on Tesla.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "pt", "tweet_text": "@cld516 Short Tesla", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 I would if I thought you would focus more on equities you own or would buy and why. Not interested in all of the negativity based content and attacks.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "cld516", "ret_m1d": 0.03383079648725196, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03383079648725196, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.030254397934510457, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02390106206676501, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009929734420486946, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.011335005235871831, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011335005235871831, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010113791622506807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007280395372829984, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004054609863041847, "ret_p1w": -0.017339659226142667, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.017339659226142667, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.017150723475002683, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012788562642076506, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004551096584066161, "ret_p1m": -0.06252723835181184, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07775270436193038, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015225466010118538, "ret_p3m": -0.19043169982453256, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19043169982453256, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13082826865138253, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09277859946366851, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09765310036086405, "ret_p6m": -0.16976335134041243, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.16976335134041243, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24191352582498715, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11486610533000619, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05489724601040624, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07775270436193038, "price_path": [-0.0004, -0.0514, -0.0649, -0.0139, -0.0578, -0.0456, -0.0524, -0.1004, -0.0516, -0.0661, -0.0533, -0.0672, -0.0442, -0.0266, -0.0371, -0.045, -0.0232, -0.0564, -0.0157, 0.002, 0.0041, -0.0425, -0.0067, 0.019, -0.0335, 0.0053, -0.0299, -0.0655, -0.0314, -0.0436, -0.0632, -0.1254, -0.1203, -0.1103, -0.127, -0.1211, -0.1401, -0.1491, -0.0911, -0.0875, -0.0719, -0.0719, -0.0641, -0.0642, -0.0661, -0.0281, -0.0111, -0.0101, -0.0436, -0.0315, -0.0178, -0.0277, -0.0015, 0.0341, 0.0658, 0.0166, 0.0516, 0.0469, 0.0633, 0.0564, 0.056, 0.056, 0.0338, 0.0, -0.0113, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0469, -0.0173, -0.058, -0.0614, -0.0519, -0.0318, -0.0232, -0.0271, -0.0445, -0.0458, -0.0482, -0.0482, -0.0879, -0.0614, -0.0224, -0.023, -0.0532, -0.0625, -0.0613, -0.0937, -0.0636, -0.0823, -0.082, -0.1167, -0.1358, -0.1056, -0.0921, -0.0749, -0.0682, -0.0926, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.1066, -0.1051, -0.1043, -0.104, -0.1301, -0.1093, -0.0919, -0.1111, -0.1243, -0.1225, -0.1462, -0.1168, -0.1177, -0.1369, -0.1326, -0.1314, -0.1127, -0.1406, -0.1489, -0.1394, -0.1313, -0.1455, -0.1726, -0.1995, -0.1714, -0.1667, -0.1603, -0.1904, -0.2128, -0.227, -0.1912, -0.1705, -0.2155, -0.2155, -0.2324, -0.2458, -0.2532, -0.2481, -0.2408, -0.2333, -0.2076, -0.1473, -0.1539, -0.1284, -0.1461, -0.1593, -0.1569, -0.1869, -0.1813, -0.1762, -0.1819, -0.1889, -0.1697, -0.1497, -0.146, -0.1529, -0.1325, -0.1041, -0.0681, -0.0319, -0.057, -0.0313, -0.0355, -0.0814, -0.108, -0.1208, -0.0922, -0.0909, -0.0732, -0.0732, -0.0567, -0.0419, -0.0382, -0.0519, -0.0952, -0.0781, -0.0782, -0.0896, -0.1493, -0.1103, -0.137, -0.1698, -0.1316, -0.1158, -0.1055, -0.1196, -0.1376, -0.1287, -0.1287, -0.1188, -0.1698]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1987955622428467473", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-10T18:48:49+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "That is laughable and redefines the term \"low expectations.\" ...current valuation in excess of 40 net revenues/gross profits...the company is expecting to continue to lose money in 2026", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: revenues down ~48% YoY, valuation >40x gross profit, losses continuing into 2026 — guidance beat is a low-bar illusion.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Talk about a low bar. $OPEN guiding to revenues of $600mm 4q 2025 vs $1.178B 4q 2024 and $$1.47B 4q 2023. And $OPEN bulls want to tout that sales are running above the guidance of down 48% YOY. That is laughable and redefines the term “low expectations.”  \n\nNote to self - while revenues will presumably rise in the future, this level of unit sales on an annualized basis would yield gross profits (total net revenues to $OPEN) of less than $200mm, implying a current valuation in excess of 40 net revenues/gross profits. Also remember that the company is expecting to continue to lose money in 2026. @dayetweets @m3_melody @1TradingDee @UnicusResearch @iv2171", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$OPEN now $52.7m ahead of revenue guidance QTD vs expected.   \n\nCurrent as of today: $312.1m\n\nExpected this time in the QTR: $259.4m\n\n734 homes to sell at current avg sale price of $381k\n\n51 days left to go. https://t.co/Bq225MIRJa", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.1769134108569661, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.1769134108569661, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.16154888457884065, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.17764083746095127, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.015364526278125457, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0007274266039851707, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0639899329322835, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0639899329322835, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06170057507774507, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.05283561517107094, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002289357854538432, "bench_c_p1d": 0.011154317761212562, "ret_p1w": -0.01631112183512784, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01631112183512784, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.006830989760185258, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0027320803820675144, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.023142111595313097, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013579041453060325, "ret_p1m": -0.0702634827504901, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0702634827504901, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0726115420884782, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.052319786709210225, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0023480593379880954, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017943696041279877, "ret_p3m": -0.41028859059077616, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.41028859059077616, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4076211951828216, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.42097236020280515, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.002667395407954576, "bench_c_p3m": 0.010683769612028993, "ret_p6m": -0.3437891898680059, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3437891898680059, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.41195542957921627, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.43381962782820294, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06816623971121039, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09003043796019705, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.41028859059077616, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.4076211951828216, "alpha_c_stated": 0.42097236020280515, "price_path": [-0.6964, -0.6186, -0.6023, -0.5257, -0.5458, -0.596, -0.5483, -0.3714, -0.4304, -0.4103, -0.4956, -0.4642, -0.4417, -0.4417, -0.3614, -0.3563, -0.2522, -0.1656, -0.2422, -0.2334, -0.2647, 0.3199, 0.138, 0.1913, 0.1192, 0.2811, 0.2472, 0.2008, 0.0514, -0.1104, 0.0326, 0.1405, 0.1054, 0.0289, 0.0, 0.0113, 0.005, 0.0176, 0.1644, 0.1656, 0.0652, 0.0213, -0.0502, -0.0878, -0.0414, -0.074, -0.1079, -0.1016, -0.0753, -0.1267, -0.1443, -0.1179, 0.0, 0.0238, 0.0, -0.0402, -0.079, -0.0251, -0.0477, -0.1317, -0.0928, -0.1769, -0.1769, 0.0, 0.064, 0.1757, 0.074, 0.0188, -0.0163, -0.0565, -0.1606, -0.2271, -0.1531, -0.0351, -0.0289, -0.0238, -0.0238, -0.0339, -0.1041, -0.123, -0.1292, -0.0489, -0.1029, -0.1154, -0.0703, -0.1217, -0.1154, -0.1769, -0.1882, -0.1556, -0.2321, -0.212, -0.202, -0.1945, -0.2133, -0.212, -0.212, -0.2459, -0.2685, -0.2673, -0.2685, -0.2685, -0.2384, -0.207, -0.1305, -0.2321, -0.1932, -0.0853, -0.1192, -0.1506, -0.1669, -0.2095, -0.1631, -0.1631, -0.1982, -0.187, -0.1945, -0.2459, -0.2635, -0.271, -0.2773, -0.2999, -0.3538, -0.3952, -0.3563, -0.3726, -0.4103, -0.3877, -0.3802, -0.4115, -0.4028, -0.4504, -0.4423, -0.4423, -0.4567, -0.4191, -0.4166, -0.3726, -0.4003, -0.3588, -0.3752, -0.3212, -0.3199, -0.3664, -0.3764, -0.3877, -0.3501, -0.3726, -0.3626, -0.3714, -0.3388, -0.3927, -0.3789, -0.3501, -0.3024, -0.3375, -0.3551, -0.3839, -0.3463, -0.3501, -0.3601, -0.3852, -0.3977, -0.4442, -0.4128, -0.4266, -0.4053, -0.4053, -0.4216, -0.4291, -0.4178, -0.4592, -0.458, -0.4529, -0.4341, -0.3952, -0.3388, -0.3363, -0.3287, -0.3162, -0.3187, -0.345, -0.3087, -0.3237, -0.3124, -0.2999, -0.325, -0.3174, -0.3563, -0.3438]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1986474736294002759", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T16:44:18+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "This too shall pass.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: mocks wildly bullish fundamental forecasts, implies the stock's strength despite terrible fundamentals will not last.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Forecasting is never easy, and Mr. Market can be a very tough teacher, a fact which is lost upon \n@ICannot_Enough . He is quick to criticize others, buts let’s have a look at his own $TSLA forecasts: 950k deliveries for 4q 2025? More like 400k! https://t.co/BG2eEzhQ49\n\n---\n\n$90B in 4q 2025 revenues for $TSLA according to forecast by @ICannot_Enough? More like $26B! https://t.co/PbatBH62Kn\n\n---\n\n$35b in 3q 2025 $TSLA operating earnings forecast by @ICannot_Enough ? More like $1.6B! 4q $TSLA may generate a loss. \n\nHard to be as wrong as @ICannot_Enough on the $TSLA fundamentals, but nevertheless have the stock do so well. \n\nThis too shall pass. https://t.co/yD56BYVQnS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.036240504876303925, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.036240504876303925, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.025394866010775452, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012587702925987543, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010845638865528473, "bench_c_m1d": 0.023652801950316382, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03675632866235745, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03675632866235745, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0377408018411326, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03832746762892436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0015711389665669095, "ret_p1w": -0.09849524134249965, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09849524134249965, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1010760979617803, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08367505243818374, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002580856619280647, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014820188904315912, "ret_p1m": 0.020385271160632268, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.020385271160632268, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0025592061312080805, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0035268320656520746, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02294447729184035, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016858439094980193, "ret_p3m": -0.05371041692345502, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05371041692345502, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08542325152314723, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0833062738046435, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03171283459969221, "bench_c_p3m": 0.029595856881188487, "ret_p6m": -0.12354510077247638, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12354510077247638, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2047662037349851, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13508586382075838, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08122110296250873, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011540763048281999, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.020385271160632268, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0025592061312080805, "alpha_c_stated": -0.0035268320656520746, "price_path": [-0.2397, -0.2356, -0.2389, -0.2474, -0.2587, -0.2484, -0.2615, -0.2736, -0.2821, -0.2375, -0.2227, -0.2113, -0.216, -0.2241, -0.2513, -0.2513, -0.2614, -0.2508, -0.2408, -0.2132, -0.2232, -0.2219, -0.22, -0.1729, -0.1121, -0.0804, -0.0545, -0.045, -0.0652, -0.0445, -0.0262, -0.045, -0.007, -0.0505, -0.0124, -0.0061, -0.0027, 0.0304, -0.0222, -0.0361, 0.0165, -0.0288, -0.0162, -0.0233, -0.0727, -0.0224, -0.0374, -0.0241, -0.0385, -0.0148, 0.0034, -0.0074, -0.0156, 0.0069, -0.0273, 0.0146, 0.0328, 0.035, -0.013, 0.0239, 0.0504, -0.0037, 0.0362, 0.0, -0.0368, -0.0015, -0.0141, -0.0343, -0.0985, -0.0932, -0.083, -0.1002, -0.094, -0.1137, -0.1229, -0.0631, -0.0595, -0.0433, -0.0433, -0.0353, -0.0354, -0.0374, 0.0019, 0.0193, 0.0204, -0.0142, -0.0017, 0.0124, 0.0022, 0.0293, 0.0659, 0.0986, 0.0479, 0.084, 0.0791, 0.096, 0.0889, 0.0886, 0.0886, 0.0657, 0.0308, 0.0191, 0.0085, 0.0085, -0.0176, 0.0129, -0.029, -0.0325, -0.0227, -0.002, 0.0068, 0.0029, -0.015, -0.0165, -0.0189, -0.0189, -0.0598, -0.0325, 0.0077, 0.0071, -0.024, -0.0337, -0.0324, -0.0658, -0.0348, -0.054, -0.0537, -0.0895, -0.1092, -0.078, -0.0641, -0.0464, -0.0396, -0.0647, -0.0638, -0.0638, -0.0791, -0.0776, -0.0767, -0.0765, -0.1033, -0.0819, -0.0639, -0.0837, -0.0973, -0.0955, -0.1199, -0.0896, -0.0905, -0.1103, -0.1059, -0.1047, -0.0854, -0.1141, -0.1227, -0.1129, -0.1046, -0.1191, -0.1471, -0.1748, -0.1459, -0.141, -0.1345, -0.1655, -0.1886, -0.2032, -0.1663, -0.145, -0.1913, -0.1913, -0.2088, -0.2226, -0.2302, -0.2249, -0.2174, -0.2097, -0.1832, -0.121, -0.1279, -0.1016, -0.1198, -0.1334, -0.131, -0.1619, -0.1561, -0.1508, -0.1567, -0.164, -0.1442, -0.1235]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1991614004595466676", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-20T21:05:55+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Not a Believer' in Tesla (TSLA), 'It's Always Promises, Promises, and More Promises'", "tweet_type": "news_reaction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Shares Noble's bearish stance on TSLA: skeptical of repeated unfulfilled promises.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Noble: ‘Not a Believer’ in Tesla (TSLA), ‘It’s Always Promises, Promises, and More Promises’ https://t.co/ERb62Z9ji3 #\n\n$CAVA $OPEN $TSLA $CMG $XRT $GLD", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.010585836219806133, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.010585836219806133, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.020448728753497458, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.029831942629098385, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.009862892533691325, "bench_c_m1d": -0.019246106409292252, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0682451678419993, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0682451678419993, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.05352656096576469, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.05489710460351871, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.014718606876234608, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01334806323848059, "ret_p1w": 0.09992589290389242, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.09992589290389242, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.06296245732281203, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05132271976156777, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.036963435581080395, "bench_c_p1w": 0.04860317314232465, "ret_p1m": 0.24966124309679172, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.24966124309679172, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.20744223608332457, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.16245551218435805, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04221900701346715, "bench_c_p1m": 0.08720573091243367, "ret_p3m": 0.051727252488580566, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.051727252488580566, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.007286339917959017, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.011799057712927219, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04444091257062155, "bench_c_p3m": 0.03992819477565335, "ret_p6m": 0.048326457013631474, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.048326457013631474, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.07886937192223886, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.01254235844951812, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.12719582893587034, "bench_c_p6m": 0.035784098564113354, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.24966124309679172, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.20744223608332457, "alpha_c_stated": -0.16245551218435805, "price_path": [-0.1008, -0.1061, -0.1153, -0.1463, -0.1463, -0.1578, -0.1457, -0.1344, -0.1029, -0.1143, -0.1128, -0.1107, -0.057, 0.0124, 0.0485, 0.0781, 0.0889, 0.0659, 0.0894, 0.1103, 0.0889, 0.1322, 0.0826, 0.1261, 0.1333, 0.1371, 0.1748, 0.1148, 0.0991, 0.1589, 0.1074, 0.1217, 0.1137, 0.0573, 0.1146, 0.0975, 0.1127, 0.0963, 0.1233, 0.1441, 0.1317, 0.1224, 0.148, 0.109, 0.1568, 0.1776, 0.1801, 0.1253, 0.1674, 0.1976, 0.136, 0.1815, 0.1402, 0.0983, 0.1384, 0.1241, 0.101, 0.0279, 0.0339, 0.0456, 0.026, 0.033, 0.0106, 0.0, 0.0682, 0.0724, 0.0907, 0.0907, 0.0999, 0.0998, 0.0975, 0.1423, 0.1622, 0.1634, 0.124, 0.1383, 0.1543, 0.1427, 0.1735, 0.2153, 0.2526, 0.1948, 0.236, 0.2304, 0.2497, 0.2416, 0.2411, 0.2411, 0.215, 0.1753, 0.162, 0.1499, 0.1499, 0.1201, 0.1549, 0.1071, 0.1031, 0.1143, 0.1379, 0.148, 0.1435, 0.123, 0.1214, 0.1187, 0.1187, 0.072, 0.1032, 0.149, 0.1482, 0.1128, 0.1018, 0.1032, 0.0651, 0.1005, 0.0785, 0.0789, 0.0381, 0.0156, 0.0512, 0.0671, 0.0872, 0.0951, 0.0664, 0.0674, 0.0674, 0.05, 0.0517, 0.0527, 0.053, 0.0223, 0.0468, 0.0673, 0.0447, 0.0292, 0.0313, 0.0034, 0.038, 0.037, 0.0144, 0.0194, 0.0208, 0.0428, 0.01, 0.0003, 0.0114, 0.0209, 0.0043, -0.0276, -0.0591, -0.0262, -0.0206, -0.0131, -0.0485, -0.0748, -0.0916, -0.0495, -0.0251, -0.078, -0.078, -0.0979, -0.1136, -0.1223, -0.1163, -0.1078, -0.0989, -0.0688, 0.0022, -0.0056, 0.0244, 0.0036, -0.0119, -0.0092, -0.0444, -0.0378, -0.0318, -0.0385, -0.0468, -0.0242, -0.0007, 0.0036, -0.0044, 0.0195, 0.0529, 0.0953, 0.1378, 0.1083, 0.1385, 0.1335, 0.0796, 0.0483]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986555114291920900", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T22:03:42+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect Opendoor to fall through the trap door. $3 before year end would not surprise me as tax loss selling materializes.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: no profits until 2027, worsening margins, 8x book overvalued, targets $3 by year-end on tax-loss selling.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN\nKey points from release:\n\n1)No profits until 2027.\n\n2)Margins to get hit hard in 4q as they are stuck with bad inventory.\n\n3) Most importantly, no silver bullet. They remain a low margin asset heavy house flipper. They are not a software or AI company. \n\n4) Valuation is still obscenely expensive. Book value \ndeclined to 74 cents per share, and will go lower in the coming quarters as losses continue. 8x book for a loss making, asset heavy house flipper. \n\n5) With sales set to decline further and losses on the horizon for the next four quarters, the outlook is truly awful. I expect Opendoor to fall through the trap door.\n$3 before year end would not surprise me as tax loss \nselling materializes.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$OPEN Earnings:\n\n- Revenue: $915 million\n\n\"We are refounding Opendoor as a software and AI company. In my first month as CEO, we've made a decisive break from the past -- returning to the office, eliminating reliance on consultants, and launching over a dozen AI-powered products https://t.co/IdCM3WZdkg", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013084540685971424, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "bench_c_m1d": -0.013084540685971424, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.21493900300472824, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.21493900300472824, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.19933472437758493, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.21566590084388682, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015604278627143309, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0007268978391585801, "ret_p1w": 0.23780487140043371, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.23780487140043371, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.23637414365355158, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.24555866977377683, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0014307277468821322, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007753798373343113, "ret_p1m": 0.07469516040082524, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07469516040082524, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.055826870726288114, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08753733854355761, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01886828967453713, "bench_c_p1m": -0.012842178142732363, "ret_p3m": -0.23780487140043371, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.23780487140043371, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2635104603005032, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2533880047894137, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.025705588900069465, "bench_c_p3m": 0.015583133388979986, "ret_p6m": -0.21798778061158286, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.21798778061158286, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2941884559767147, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.30500656190567366, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07620067536513186, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0870187812940908, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07469516040082524, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.055826870726288114, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08753733854355761, "price_path": [-0.6235, -0.6311, -0.5366, -0.5168, -0.4238, -0.4482, -0.5091, -0.4512, -0.2363, -0.3079, -0.2835, -0.3872, -0.3491, -0.3216, -0.3216, -0.2241, -0.218, -0.0915, 0.0137, -0.0793, -0.0686, -0.1067, 0.6037, 0.3826, 0.4474, 0.3598, 0.5564, 0.5152, 0.4588, 0.2774, 0.0808, 0.2546, 0.3857, 0.343, 0.25, 0.2149, 0.2287, 0.221, 0.2363, 0.4146, 0.4162, 0.2942, 0.2409, 0.154, 0.1082, 0.1646, 0.125, 0.0838, 0.0915, 0.1235, 0.061, 0.0396, 0.0716, 0.2149, 0.2439, 0.2149, 0.1662, 0.1189, 0.1845, 0.157, 0.0549, 0.1021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2149, 0.2927, 0.4284, 0.3049, 0.2378, 0.1951, 0.1463, 0.0198, -0.061, 0.029, 0.1723, 0.1799, 0.186, 0.186, 0.1738, 0.0884, 0.0655, 0.0579, 0.1555, 0.0899, 0.0747, 0.1296, 0.0671, 0.0747, 0.0, -0.0137, 0.0259, -0.0671, -0.0427, -0.0305, -0.0213, -0.0442, -0.0427, -0.0427, -0.0838, -0.1113, -0.1098, -0.1113, -0.1113, -0.0747, -0.0366, 0.0564, -0.0671, -0.0198, 0.1113, 0.0701, 0.032, 0.0122, -0.0396, 0.0168, 0.0168, -0.0259, -0.0122, -0.0213, -0.0838, -0.1052, -0.1143, -0.122, -0.1494, -0.2149, -0.2652, -0.218, -0.2378, -0.2835, -0.2561, -0.247, -0.2851, -0.2744, -0.3323, -0.3224, -0.3224, -0.3399, -0.2942, -0.2912, -0.2378, -0.2713, -0.221, -0.2409, -0.1753, -0.1738, -0.2302, -0.2424, -0.2561, -0.2104, -0.2378, -0.2256, -0.2363, -0.1966, -0.2622, -0.2454, -0.2104, -0.1524, -0.1951, -0.2165, -0.2515, -0.2058, -0.2104, -0.2226, -0.253, -0.2683, -0.3247, -0.2866, -0.3034, -0.2774, -0.2774, -0.2973, -0.3064, -0.2927, -0.343, -0.3415, -0.3354, -0.3125, -0.2652, -0.1966, -0.1936, -0.1845, -0.1692, -0.1723, -0.2043, -0.1601, -0.1784, -0.1646, -0.1494, -0.1799, -0.1707, -0.218]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986487093510729827", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T17:33:24+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history. Earnings are collapsing. The 2025 consensus estimate has gone from $8 to $1.65. They will lose money in 2026.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Short TSLA: earnings collapsing, EV credits gone, market share losses, 3rd year of falling deliveries, 250x earnings valuation unsustainable; called biggest bubble in stock market history.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history.\nEarnings are collapsing. The 2025 consensus estimate has gone from $8 to $1.65. They will lose money in 2026.\nEV credits and tax incentives are gone.\nCompetition is increasing and they are losing market share.\n2026 will be the third consecutive year of falling deliveries. \n15x sales and 250x earnings is insane.\nThe share price is sustained only by more outrageous promises of FSD and robotics. \nShareholders will get what they deserve.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "In the first ten months of 2023, volumes for $TSLA nearly hit 55,000 electric vehicles in Germany, Europe’s largest car market. \n\nNow it’s not even 16,000 through October 2025, a whopping 70% decline in just two years.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.036240504876303925, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.036240504876303925, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.025394866010775452, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012587702925987543, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010845638865528473, "bench_c_m1d": 0.023652801950316382, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03675632866235745, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03675632866235745, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0377408018411326, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03832746762892436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0015711389665669095, "ret_p1w": -0.09849524134249965, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09849524134249965, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1010760979617803, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08367505243818374, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002580856619280647, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014820188904315912, "ret_p1m": 0.020385271160632268, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.020385271160632268, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0025592061312080805, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0035268320656520746, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02294447729184035, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016858439094980193, "ret_p3m": -0.05371041692345502, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05371041692345502, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08542325152314723, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0833062738046435, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03171283459969221, "bench_c_p3m": 0.029595856881188487, "ret_p6m": -0.12354510077247638, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12354510077247638, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2047662037349851, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13508586382075838, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08122110296250873, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011540763048281999, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2397, -0.2356, -0.2389, -0.2474, -0.2587, -0.2484, -0.2615, -0.2736, -0.2821, -0.2375, -0.2227, -0.2113, -0.216, -0.2241, -0.2513, -0.2513, -0.2614, -0.2508, -0.2408, -0.2132, -0.2232, -0.2219, -0.22, -0.1729, -0.1121, -0.0804, -0.0545, -0.045, -0.0652, -0.0445, -0.0262, -0.045, -0.007, -0.0505, -0.0124, -0.0061, -0.0027, 0.0304, -0.0222, -0.0361, 0.0165, -0.0288, -0.0162, -0.0233, -0.0727, -0.0224, -0.0374, -0.0241, -0.0385, -0.0148, 0.0034, -0.0074, -0.0156, 0.0069, -0.0273, 0.0146, 0.0328, 0.035, -0.013, 0.0239, 0.0504, -0.0037, 0.0362, 0.0, -0.0368, -0.0015, -0.0141, -0.0343, -0.0985, -0.0932, -0.083, -0.1002, -0.094, -0.1137, -0.1229, -0.0631, -0.0595, -0.0433, -0.0433, -0.0353, -0.0354, -0.0374, 0.0019, 0.0193, 0.0204, -0.0142, -0.0017, 0.0124, 0.0022, 0.0293, 0.0659, 0.0986, 0.0479, 0.084, 0.0791, 0.096, 0.0889, 0.0886, 0.0886, 0.0657, 0.0308, 0.0191, 0.0085, 0.0085, -0.0176, 0.0129, -0.029, -0.0325, -0.0227, -0.002, 0.0068, 0.0029, -0.015, -0.0165, -0.0189, -0.0189, -0.0598, -0.0325, 0.0077, 0.0071, -0.024, -0.0337, -0.0324, -0.0658, -0.0348, -0.054, -0.0537, -0.0895, -0.1092, -0.078, -0.0641, -0.0464, -0.0396, -0.0647, -0.0638, -0.0638, -0.0791, -0.0776, -0.0767, -0.0765, -0.1033, -0.0819, -0.0639, -0.0837, -0.0973, -0.0955, -0.1199, -0.0896, -0.0905, -0.1103, -0.1059, -0.1047, -0.0854, -0.1141, -0.1227, -0.1129, -0.1046, -0.1191, -0.1471, -0.1748, -0.1459, -0.141, -0.1345, -0.1655, -0.1886, -0.2032, -0.1663, -0.145, -0.1913, -0.1913, -0.2088, -0.2226, -0.2302, -0.2249, -0.2174, -0.2097, -0.1832, -0.121, -0.1279, -0.1016, -0.1198, -0.1334, -0.131, -0.1619, -0.1561, -0.1508, -0.1567, -0.164, -0.1442, -0.1235]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2003070955153973664", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-22T11:51:45+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Fundamentals say $OPEN is only worth $1. The market has already discounted an enormous improvement.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: fundamentals support only $1, narrative has pushed stock to $7 with enormous improvement already priced in.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@imedward333 @danielsethlewis @paytonandavadad @vishalgarg1_0 @ericjackson Narrative has pushed the stock to $7.\nFundamentals say $OPEN is only worth $1. The market has already discounted an enormous improvement.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@danielsethlewis @paytonandavadad @gnoble79 @vishalgarg1_0 @ericjackson Oh so you expecting $BETR’s better future and growth but thinking Eric’s engagement could be a problem? But isn’t a fact that he made attention and traffic to this company? More than it’s past", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "imedward333", "ret_m1d": -0.009345785368615966, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009345785368615966, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0031545516895949977, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.001980866791325475, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007364918577290491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023364500558389678, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023364500558389678, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027934992905720324, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.023115809487931793, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00024869107045788486, "ret_p1w": -0.09190033420193955, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09190033420193955, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09631017702703448, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10284842842346764, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010948094221528093, "ret_p1m": -0.004672929821157856, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.034780164832387994, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030107235011230138, "ret_p3m": -0.19937697735157223, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19937697735157223, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16282773267312123, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2424225098912084, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04304553253963617, "ret_p6m": -0.26012461938442555, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.26012461938442555, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35876109648465593, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3898369657490104, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12971234636458484, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_stated": 0.034780164832387994, "price_path": [0.2819, 0.4159, 0.3723, 0.2773, 0.2414, 0.2555, 0.2477, 0.2632, 0.4455, 0.447, 0.3224, 0.2679, 0.1791, 0.1324, 0.19, 0.1495, 0.1075, 0.1153, 0.148, 0.0841, 0.0623, 0.095, 0.2414, 0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989045676408442962", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-13T19:00:18+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will crash as sales and earnings implode. No appreciable revenues from cybertaxis, AI or robots in 2026. SELL.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Short TSLA: sales and earnings set to implode with no meaningful cybertaxi/AI/robot revenue in 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Micro2Macr0 $TSLA will crash as sales and earnings implode. No appreciable revenues from cybertaxis, AI or robots in 2026. SELL.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "$TSLA needs to drop to $398 to close out the gap. Getting REAL close. That's where you can expect the bounce out of this falling broadening wedge. https://t.co/7cIzAEjaFm", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Micro2Macr0", "ret_m1d": 0.07117096585529392, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07117096585529392, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05429705540413221, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04556751172725604, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01687391045116171, "bench_c_m1d": 0.025603454128037884, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005870832424868633, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.005870832424868633, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006034656798180937, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010655352367051063, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0001638243733123046, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00478451994218243, "ret_p1w": -0.016816287500356797, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.016816287500356797, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.012214691789367071, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.029907879155392614, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02903097928972387, "bench_c_p1w": -0.04672416665574941, "ret_p1m": 0.14171994976165325, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.14171994976165325, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12725651945509653, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10120278333126165, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.014463430306556724, "bench_c_p1m": 0.040517166430391605, "ret_p3m": 0.057762635351106706, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.057762635351106706, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02484034643615618, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03565487408324852, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.032922288914950526, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022107761267858184, "ret_p6m": 0.06557381156125741, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.06557381156125741, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.03825924838042338, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.025227747694347435, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1038330599416808, "bench_c_p6m": 0.040346063866909976, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.057762635351106706, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02484034643615618, "alpha_c_stated": -0.03565487408324852, "price_path": [-0.1662, -0.1808, -0.1943, -0.2037, -0.1542, -0.1378, -0.1252, -0.1303, -0.1393, -0.1695, -0.1695, -0.1807, -0.1689, -0.1579, -0.1272, -0.1383, -0.1369, -0.1348, -0.0825, -0.0151, 0.02, 0.0488, 0.0594, 0.037, 0.0599, 0.0802, 0.0594, 0.1015, 0.0532, 0.0955, 0.1025, 0.1063, 0.143, 0.0846, 0.0693, 0.1275, 0.0774, 0.0913, 0.0835, 0.0286, 0.0844, 0.0678, 0.0825, 0.0666, 0.0928, 0.113, 0.101, 0.092, 0.1169, 0.0789, 0.1255, 0.1457, 0.1481, 0.0948, 0.1357, 0.1651, 0.1052, 0.1495, 0.1093, 0.0685, 0.1076, 0.0936, 0.0712, 0.0, 0.0059, 0.0172, -0.0018, 0.005, -0.0168, -0.0271, 0.0393, 0.0433, 0.0612, 0.0612, 0.0701, 0.07, 0.0678, 0.1113, 0.1307, 0.1319, 0.0935, 0.1074, 0.123, 0.1117, 0.1417, 0.1824, 0.2186, 0.1624, 0.2024, 0.197, 0.2158, 0.2079, 0.2075, 0.2075, 0.1821, 0.1434, 0.1305, 0.1187, 0.1187, 0.0898, 0.1236, 0.077, 0.0732, 0.0841, 0.107, 0.1168, 0.1125, 0.0926, 0.091, 0.0883, 0.0883, 0.0429, 0.0733, 0.1178, 0.1171, 0.0826, 0.0719, 0.0733, 0.0362, 0.0707, 0.0493, 0.0497, 0.01, -0.0119, 0.0227, 0.0381, 0.0578, 0.0654, 0.0375, 0.0384, 0.0384, 0.0215, 0.0232, 0.0242, 0.0245, -0.0054, 0.0184, 0.0383, 0.0164, 0.0013, 0.0033, -0.0238, 0.0098, 0.0089, -0.0131, -0.0082, -0.0068, 0.0145, -0.0174, -0.0268, -0.016, -0.0068, -0.0229, -0.054, -0.0847, -0.0526, -0.0472, -0.0399, -0.0743, -0.0999, -0.1162, -0.0752, -0.0516, -0.103, -0.103, -0.1223, -0.1377, -0.1461, -0.1402, -0.1319, -0.1233, -0.094, -0.025, -0.0326, -0.0034, -0.0236, -0.0387, -0.036, -0.0703, -0.0639, -0.058, -0.0646, -0.0726, -0.0506, -0.0278, -0.0236, -0.0314, -0.0081, 0.0244, 0.0656]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2004426359465300236", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-26T05:37:39+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I believe earnings will be lower in 2026 as $TSLA auto sales decline for the third consecutive year", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: expects earnings to fall in 2026 on third consecutive year of auto sales decline.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Mower20101 @AdamParx @BLSmith2112 @abetterfuture42 I believe earnings will be lower in 2026 as $TSLA auto sales decline for the third consecutive year.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@AdamParx @BLSmith2112 @gnoble79 @abetterfuture42 Normal dcf, 4.8% rfr, 6% growth (too much imo, but was upping it) and $0.70 fcf (based on carbon credits going away. Factors out to about $21 pre buck $1 fcf. (Am more conservative on cash, but was pretty lax on expectations). *Used CFRA eps estimates. https://t.co/GoFRElkas4", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Mower20101", "ret_m1d": 0.021486124292644515, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.021486124292644515, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021384704342229277, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01706180290772985, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010141995041523799, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0044243213849146645, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03272372674735757, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03272372674735757, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.029160073239862805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.022891622510734844, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0035636535074947684, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00983210423662273, "ret_p1w": -0.07811611129542784, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07811611129542784, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06777287631722473, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.047800582087406784, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010343234978203109, "bench_c_p1w": -0.030315529208021053, "ret_p1m": -0.08415579037630527, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0863679196883711, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.003505699250114569, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0022121293120658247, "ret_p3m": -0.1877985432687609, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1877985432687609, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.14188259400824654, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09687216461676584, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.045915949260514344, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09092637865199504, "ret_p6m": -0.14760414631636987, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14760414631636987, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23167639643130056, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.09312144798931499, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08407225011493069, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05448269832705488, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1877985432687609, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.14188259400824654, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09687216461676584, "price_path": [-0.0641, -0.0331, -0.0825, -0.0955, -0.0462, -0.0886, -0.0768, -0.0834, -0.1298, -0.0827, -0.0967, -0.0843, -0.0977, -0.0755, -0.0584, -0.0686, -0.0762, -0.0552, -0.0873, -0.0479, -0.0308, -0.0288, -0.0738, -0.0392, -0.0144, -0.0651, -0.0276, -0.0616, -0.0961, -0.063, -0.0749, -0.0938, -0.154, -0.1491, -0.1395, -0.1556, -0.1498, -0.1683, -0.177, -0.1208, -0.1174, -0.1023, -0.1023, -0.0947, -0.0948, -0.0967, -0.0599, -0.0435, -0.0425, -0.0749, -0.0632, -0.05, -0.0596, -0.0342, 0.0003, 0.0309, -0.0167, 0.0172, 0.0126, 0.0285, 0.0218, 0.0215, 0.0215, 0.0, -0.0327, -0.0437, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0781, -0.0495, -0.0889, -0.0921, -0.0829, -0.0635, -0.0552, -0.0589, -0.0757, -0.0771, -0.0793, -0.0793, -0.1177, -0.0921, -0.0544, -0.055, -0.0842, -0.0932, -0.092, -0.1234, -0.0942, -0.1123, -0.112, -0.1456, -0.1641, -0.1349, -0.1218, -0.1052, -0.0987, -0.1223, -0.1215, -0.1215, -0.1359, -0.1344, -0.1336, -0.1334, -0.1586, -0.1385, -0.1216, -0.1402, -0.1529, -0.1512, -0.1742, -0.1457, -0.1466, -0.1651, -0.161, -0.1598, -0.1418, -0.1687, -0.1768, -0.1676, -0.1598, -0.1734, -0.1997, -0.2257, -0.1985, -0.1939, -0.1878, -0.2169, -0.2386, -0.2523, -0.2177, -0.1977, -0.2412, -0.2412, -0.2575, -0.2705, -0.2777, -0.2727, -0.2657, -0.2584, -0.2336, -0.1752, -0.1816, -0.1569, -0.174, -0.1868, -0.1845, -0.2135, -0.2081, -0.2031, -0.2087, -0.2155, -0.1969, -0.1776, -0.174, -0.1806, -0.1609, -0.1334, -0.0986, -0.0635, -0.0878, -0.063, -0.0671, -0.1114, -0.1372, -0.1496, -0.1219, -0.1207, -0.1035, -0.1035, -0.0875, -0.0733, -0.0696, -0.0829, -0.1248, -0.1083, -0.1084, -0.1194, -0.1772, -0.1394, -0.1652, -0.197, -0.16, -0.1447, -0.1348, -0.1484, -0.1658, -0.1572, -0.1572, -0.1476]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2002787151755219105", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-21T17:04:01+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "On this basis it is fair to say that $OPEN is wildly overvalued. A HUGE improvement will be required to even justify the present share price. SELL.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Explicit SELL on OPEN: valued at 20x net sales vs fair comp of 0.9x, implying ~$1 fair value vs $6.36 last sale — wildly overvalued.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN will do about 12k homes this year and presently is valued on 20x 2025 estimated net sales (gross margin) of $350mm. Net sales is the relevant metric to use in order to make a sensible comparison to any other remotely similar companies.\n.9x sales would roughly be a fair numbers based on comps. That would imply a valuation of 35 cents per share for $OPEN . Book value is around $1 per share. Let’s be generous and call it $1. Last sale was 6.36. \nOn this basis it is fair to say that $OPEN is wildly overvalued. A HUGE improvement will be required to even justify the present share price. SELL.\n@nejatian @dayetweets @m3_melody", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "If @Opendoor  executes and the market prices it at 3× sales, the math supports $OPEN ~$53/share in 2026 and ~$123/share by 2030.\n\n🎯30k homes in 2026 = ~0.7% US market share\n🎯62k homes in 2030 = ~1.3% US market share https://t.co/Gk5ULWDKxz", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009345785368615966, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009345785368615966, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0031545516895949977, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.001980866791325475, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007364918577290491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023364500558389678, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023364500558389678, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027934992905720324, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.023115809487931793, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00024869107045788486, "ret_p1w": -0.09190033420193955, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09190033420193955, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09631017702703448, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10284842842346764, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010948094221528093, "ret_p1m": -0.004672929821157856, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.034780164832387994, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030107235011230138, "ret_p3m": -0.19937697735157223, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19937697735157223, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16282773267312123, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2424225098912084, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04304553253963617, "ret_p6m": -0.26012461938442555, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.26012461938442555, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35876109648465593, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3898369657490104, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12971234636458484, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_stated": 0.034780164832387994, "price_path": [0.2819, 0.4159, 0.3723, 0.2773, 0.2414, 0.2555, 0.2477, 0.2632, 0.4455, 0.447, 0.3224, 0.2679, 0.1791, 0.1324, 0.19, 0.1495, 0.1075, 0.1153, 0.148, 0.0841, 0.0623, 0.095, 0.2414, 0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1989388493173227585", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-14T17:42:32+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "If you are a $TSLA investor you should be very worried. It's difficult to justify TSLA's forward P/E of 200x+ in what is clearly a commodity business (unsupervised autonomy) where TSLA is one of many fighting for market share.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA at 200x+ P/E in a commodity autonomy business where it trails Chinese rivals; implicitly bullish on BIDU/PONY/WRD as leaders in paid autonomous rides.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "If you are a $TSLA investor you should be very worried. \n\n“TSLA bulls say it doesn’t matter that TSLA Oct global volumes are down -30-35% YoY, since the business is transitioning to unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots. That’s a fool’s narrative with 70%+ TSLA profits from EVs. \n\nWith EVs, TSLA had first mover advantage and clearly had the best product on the market at a price that was also highly profitable.  Nobody else except BYD has made money on EVs.  \n\nTSLA bulls refuse to acknowledge that automous ride-sharing is a commodity business where TSLA is behind the Chinese manufacturers ( $BIDU $PONY and $WRD) who are already completing 450K paid fully autonomous rides per week and will license their technology to anyone who will pay for it. \n\nI have said for years that unsupervised autonomy is table stakes for anyone in the automotive business and that prediction looks more prescient every day.  Fully autonomous ride-hailing is already a crowded space and will only get more crowded as others solve for unsupervised autonomy. Few sell-side analysts’ TSLA models show significant future revenue or profits for autonomous ride-hailing (generally <5% of 2030 revs) and almost none show revs or profits for humanoid robots.  It’s hilarious that TSLA bulls cheerlead without even attempting to justify TSLA’s valuation.  \n\nBottom line:  It’s difficult to justify TSLA’s forward P/E of 200x+ in what is clearly a commodity business (unsupervised autonomy) where TSLA is one of many fighting for market share.” - Gary Black", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0058365669185533875, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0058365669185533875, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0060004181346884344, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01064408854382437, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004807521625270983, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011302107716671506, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011302107716671506, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020618455232186972, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.020700482738195358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009398375021523853, "ret_p1w": -0.03279339573505624, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03279339573505624, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013595052235132021, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009448939789045818, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023344455946010423, "ret_p1m": 0.175491505833963, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12104994010517256, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05444156572879044, "ret_p3m": 0.05915662804276711, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03708219761959586, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022074430423171254, "ret_p6m": 0.10053170095928676, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10053170095928676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.005996684684012932, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.062402347566690386, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03812935339259638, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12104994010517256, "price_path": [-0.1856, -0.199, -0.2083, -0.1591, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1354, -0.1444, -0.1743, -0.1743, -0.1855, -0.1738, -0.1628, -0.1323, -0.1433, -0.1419, -0.1399, -0.0879, -0.0208, 0.0141, 0.0427, 0.0532, 0.0309, 0.0537, 0.0738, 0.0532, 0.0951, 0.0471, 0.0892, 0.0961, 0.0998, 0.1363, 0.0783, 0.063, 0.1209, 0.0711, 0.0849, 0.0771, 0.0226, 0.078, 0.0616, 0.0762, 0.0603, 0.0865, 0.1065, 0.0946, 0.0856, 0.1104, 0.0726, 0.1189, 0.139, 0.1414, 0.0884, 0.1291, 0.1583, 0.0987, 0.1427, 0.1028, 0.0622, 0.1011, 0.0872, 0.0649, -0.0058, 0.0, 0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0009, -0.0226, -0.0328, 0.0332, 0.0372, 0.055, 0.055, 0.0639, 0.0638, 0.0616, 0.1048, 0.1241, 0.1253, 0.0871, 0.101, 0.1165, 0.1052, 0.1351, 0.1755, 0.2115, 0.1556, 0.1954, 0.1901, 0.2087, 0.2008, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.1752, 0.1367, 0.1239, 0.1122, 0.1122, 0.0834, 0.117, 0.0708, 0.0669, 0.0778, 0.1006, 0.1103, 0.106, 0.0862, 0.0846, 0.082, 0.082, 0.0368, 0.067, 0.1113, 0.1106, 0.0763, 0.0657, 0.067, 0.0302, 0.0644, 0.0432, 0.0436, 0.0041, -0.0177, 0.0167, 0.0321, 0.0516, 0.0592, 0.0315, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0155, 0.0172, 0.0182, 0.0185, -0.0112, 0.0124, 0.0323, 0.0105, -0.0046, -0.0025, -0.0295, 0.0039, 0.003, -0.0188, -0.014, -0.0126, 0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0325, -0.0217, -0.0126, -0.0286, -0.0595, -0.09, -0.0581, -0.0527, -0.0455, -0.0797, -0.1052, -0.1214, -0.0806, -0.0571, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1274, -0.1427, -0.1511, -0.1452, -0.137, -0.1284, -0.0993, -0.0307, -0.0382, -0.0092, -0.0293, -0.0443, -0.0416, -0.0758, -0.0694, -0.0635, -0.0701, -0.078, -0.0562, -0.0335, -0.0293, -0.037, -0.0139, 0.0184, 0.0594, 0.1005]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1989388493173227585", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-11-14T17:42:32+00:00", "symbol": "BIDU", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "TSLA is behind the Chinese manufacturers ( $BIDU $PONY and $WRD) who are already completing 450K paid fully autonomous rides per week and will license their technology to anyone who will pay for it.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA at 200x+ P/E in a commodity autonomy business where it trails Chinese rivals; implicitly bullish on BIDU/PONY/WRD as leaders in paid autonomous rides.", "resolved_tickers": ["BIDU"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLC", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Content & Information'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Content & Information", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "If you are a $TSLA investor you should be very worried. \n\n“TSLA bulls say it doesn’t matter that TSLA Oct global volumes are down -30-35% YoY, since the business is transitioning to unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots. That’s a fool’s narrative with 70%+ TSLA profits from EVs. \n\nWith EVs, TSLA had first mover advantage and clearly had the best product on the market at a price that was also highly profitable.  Nobody else except BYD has made money on EVs.  \n\nTSLA bulls refuse to acknowledge that automous ride-sharing is a commodity business where TSLA is behind the Chinese manufacturers ( $BIDU $PONY and $WRD) who are already completing 450K paid fully autonomous rides per week and will license their technology to anyone who will pay for it. \n\nI have said for years that unsupervised autonomy is table stakes for anyone in the automotive business and that prediction looks more prescient every day.  Fully autonomous ride-hailing is already a crowded space and will only get more crowded as others solve for unsupervised autonomy. Few sell-side analysts’ TSLA models show significant future revenue or profits for autonomous ride-hailing (generally <5% of 2030 revs) and almost none show revs or profits for humanoid robots.  It’s hilarious that TSLA bulls cheerlead without even attempting to justify TSLA’s valuation.  \n\nBottom line:  It’s difficult to justify TSLA’s forward P/E of 200x+ in what is clearly a commodity business (unsupervised autonomy) where TSLA is one of many fighting for market share.” - Gary Black", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04008622005068019, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04008622005068019, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03992236883454514, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.034696858992532276, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005389361058147912, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0162930981866245, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0162930981866245, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006976750671109033, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01494563690919437, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0013474612774301287, "ret_p1w": -0.043534509066877725, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.043534509066877725, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.024336165566953505, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.04865439169958452, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005119882632706796, "ret_p1m": 0.024396567509092026, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.024396567509092026, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.011299827149982233, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.022670602045668398, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.047067169554760424, "ret_p3m": 0.2510344406654095, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2510344406654095, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2181816765072997, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.19904550387154996, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05198893679385952, "ret_p6m": 0.25672412740773165, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.25672412740773165, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.15019574176443196, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.21186471707520838, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.044859410332523275, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.024396567509092026, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.011299827149982233, "alpha_c_stated": -0.022670602045668398, "price_path": [-0.2322, -0.2521, -0.2447, -0.2241, -0.2075, -0.2028, -0.2253, -0.2158, -0.1784, -0.1784, -0.1699, -0.169, -0.1534, -0.121, -0.0634, -0.0649, -0.0724, -0.036, -0.0105, -0.0102, 0.0672, 0.1882, 0.1659, 0.1668, 0.1778, 0.0825, 0.1459, 0.1672, 0.1322, 0.1626, 0.1359, 0.1848, 0.2089, 0.2241, 0.2492, 0.1978, 0.1888, 0.1414, 0.0491, 0.0838, 0.034, 0.0481, 0.0422, 0.0346, 0.0528, 0.0271, 0.0089, 0.0386, 0.0583, 0.1091, 0.0933, 0.1, 0.0501, 0.042, 0.0451, 0.0775, 0.0632, 0.0952, 0.0859, 0.1407, 0.1375, 0.1116, 0.0401, 0.0, -0.0163, 0.0098, -0.0044, -0.0478, -0.0435, 0.0277, 0.0162, 0.0029, 0.0029, 0.0077, 0.032, 0.0258, 0.011, 0.0234, 0.0833, 0.1212, 0.0684, 0.0868, 0.1061, 0.0777, 0.0244, 0.0285, 0.0302, 0.0387, 0.0674, 0.0725, 0.0675, 0.0634, 0.0634, 0.0759, 0.0932, 0.1412, 0.1264, 0.1264, 0.2957, 0.2903, 0.2622, 0.2656, 0.2178, 0.2374, 0.3126, 0.2875, 0.2974, 0.2879, 0.2891, 0.2891, 0.2933, 0.399, 0.401, 0.3917, 0.3455, 0.359, 0.3592, 0.3578, 0.3205, 0.2808, 0.2488, 0.1892, 0.1979, 0.258, 0.267, 0.2729, 0.251, 0.1929, 0.1811, 0.1811, 0.1839, 0.1885, 0.182, 0.1712, 0.1547, 0.152, 0.1435, 0.0789, 0.0728, 0.0652, 0.0234, 0.0257, 0.0166, 0.0263, 0.0559, 0.0819, 0.0789, 0.0617, 0.0696, 0.05, 0.0404, 0.0506, 0.0259, -0.015, -0.0127, -0.0299, -0.0034, -0.0525, -0.0679, -0.081, -0.0395, -0.0353, -0.0434, -0.0434, -0.0407, -0.0465, -0.0215, -0.067, -0.0654, -0.0344, 0.0192, 0.0426, 0.0778, 0.0873, 0.1013, 0.0646, 0.0628, 0.0477, 0.1096, 0.1035, 0.0841, 0.0432, 0.0908, 0.0852, 0.099, 0.0883, 0.212, 0.2058, 0.2159, 0.2567]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1994862342304403489", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-29T20:13:39+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am hard pressed to see how one can even justify the current share price - forget about $82!", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: house flipping is low-margin and asset-intensive, no path to significant profits, current share price unjustifiable.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Yes $OPEN is trying  to change. But the fact remains that house flipping is fundamentally a low margin, asset intensive business and that they have not laid out a way to significant profits going forward. I am hard pressed to see how one can even justify the current share price  - forget about $82!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@Badie912 @gnoble79 That’s the problem with your stance, if you BELIEVE that the company will not change at all and focus on the review mirror and a since-left CEO then you certainly can. \n\nThey are pivoting. You either believe in them or you don’t. Neither of us have proof of the future game plan.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "pappygist", "ret_m1d": 0.07843136600157674, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07843136600157674, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07384495658442924, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.06431619299120261, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004586409417147497, "bench_c_m1d": 0.014115173010374127, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.021008417110974453, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.021008417110974453, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.022860603516881572, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01857465156146665, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0018521864059071191, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0024337655495078048, "ret_p1w": -0.012604996839451155, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.012604996839451155, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.017544220898731866, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.004087055693592245, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004939224059280711, "bench_c_p1w": -0.00851794114585891, "ret_p1m": -0.18207279246597274, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.18207279246597274, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.19496472995481728, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.18389866466616545, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01289193748884454, "bench_c_p1m": 0.001825872200192702, "ret_p3m": -0.2422969259696941, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2422969259696941, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2585651186531688, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.31571687028521467, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.01626819268347468, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07341994431552057, "ret_p6m": -0.3725490052034689, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3725490052034689, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.48220234853382016, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4799333939532674, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10965334333035126, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1073843887497985, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.18207279246597274, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.19496472995481728, "alpha_c_stated": 0.18389866466616545, "price_path": [-0.2815, -0.1653, -0.0686, -0.1541, -0.1443, -0.1793, 0.4734, 0.2703, 0.3298, 0.2493, 0.43, 0.3922, 0.3403, 0.1737, -0.007, 0.1527, 0.2731, 0.2339, 0.1485, 0.1162, 0.1289, 0.1218, 0.1359, 0.2997, 0.3011, 0.1891, 0.1401, 0.0602, 0.0182, 0.07, 0.0336, -0.0042, 0.0028, 0.0322, -0.0252, -0.0448, -0.0154, 0.1162, 0.1429, 0.1162, 0.0714, 0.028, 0.0882, 0.063, -0.0308, 0.0126, -0.0812, -0.0812, 0.1162, 0.1877, 0.3123, 0.1989, 0.1373, 0.098, 0.0532, -0.063, -0.1373, -0.0546, 0.077, 0.084, 0.0896, 0.0896, 0.0784, 0.0, -0.021, -0.028, 0.0616, 0.0014, -0.0126, 0.0378, -0.0196, -0.0126, -0.0812, -0.0938, -0.0574, -0.1429, -0.1204, -0.1092, -0.1008, -0.1218, -0.1204, -0.1204, -0.1583, -0.1835, -0.1821, -0.1835, -0.1835, -0.1499, -0.1148, -0.0294, -0.1429, -0.0994, 0.021, -0.0168, -0.0518, -0.07, -0.1176, -0.0658, -0.0658, -0.105, -0.0924, -0.1008, -0.1583, -0.1779, -0.1863, -0.1933, -0.2185, -0.2787, -0.3249, -0.2815, -0.2997, -0.3417, -0.3165, -0.3081, -0.3431, -0.3333, -0.3866, -0.3775, -0.3775, -0.3936, -0.3515, -0.3487, -0.2997, -0.3305, -0.2843, -0.3025, -0.2423, -0.2409, -0.2927, -0.3039, -0.3165, -0.2745, -0.2997, -0.2885, -0.2983, -0.2619, -0.3221, -0.3067, -0.2745, -0.2213, -0.2605, -0.2801, -0.3123, -0.2703, -0.2745, -0.2857, -0.3137, -0.3277, -0.3796, -0.3445, -0.3599, -0.3361, -0.3361, -0.3543, -0.3627, -0.3501, -0.3964, -0.395, -0.3894, -0.3683, -0.3249, -0.2619, -0.2591, -0.2507, -0.2367, -0.2395, -0.2689, -0.2283, -0.2451, -0.2325, -0.2185, -0.2465, -0.2381, -0.2815, -0.2675, -0.2353, -0.2549, -0.2983, -0.3207, -0.3403, -0.3585, -0.3739, -0.3866, -0.4006, -0.3978, -0.3838, -0.3599, -0.3655, -0.3655, -0.3725]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1983646829054222694", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-29T21:27:13+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is wildly overpriced for what it is right now. Revenues would have to grow and they would have to savagely cut costs just to justify the current price", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: wildly overpriced given EV/transaction flows vs Compass; needs massive revenue growth and cost cuts just to justify current price.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You are also totally wrong on EV/transaction flows.  $OPEN did $5B whereas $COMP did $217B!!! No matter how you slice it your method of calculation is flat out wrong/inconsistent. $OPEN is wildly overpriced for what it is right now. Revenues would have to grow and they would have to savagely cut costs just to justify the current price. And people are talking about $82!!! The numbers just do add up period.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 You’re not wrong about the rev model difference — but that’s exactly why $OPEN’s P/S multiple isn’t meant to mirror SaaS or broker comps.\n\nThey’re not a “ticket broker” — they’re a market maker for residential real estate.\n\nRevenue recognition looks inflated because they book", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "BlueDot_Techs", "ret_m1d": 0.04223432375137537, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04223432375137537, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0311140134066914, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.047860500841258036, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01112031034468397, "bench_c_m1d": -0.005626177089882667, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.058583081662064496, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.058583081662064496, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.05530285987141981, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.05809373224483383, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0032802217906446884, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0004893494172306667, "ret_p1w": -0.10626705634785882, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.10626705634785882, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09226356176562, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10259779792394519, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.014003494582238818, "bench_c_p1w": -0.003669258423913635, "ret_p1m": 0.049046273732067824, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.049046273732067824, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0438097412802676, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.029721474379220014, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.005236532451800224, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01932479935284781, "ret_p3m": -0.20844689073595069, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20844689073595069, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.23450490167014393, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22852564073750736, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.026058010934193243, "bench_c_p3m": 0.020078750001556678, "ret_p6m": -0.24931878551267395, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24931878551267395, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3054727136950439, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.34048406461955194, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05615392818236997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.091165279106878, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.049046273732067824, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0438097412802676, "alpha_c_stated": -0.029721474379220014, "price_path": [-0.6649, -0.6567, -0.7411, -0.748, -0.7343, -0.6853, -0.6635, -0.6703, -0.5858, -0.5681, -0.485, -0.5068, -0.5613, -0.5095, -0.3174, -0.3815, -0.3597, -0.4523, -0.4183, -0.3937, -0.3937, -0.3065, -0.3011, -0.188, -0.094, -0.1771, -0.1676, -0.2016, 0.4332, 0.2357, 0.2936, 0.2153, 0.391, 0.3542, 0.3038, 0.1417, -0.0341, 0.1213, 0.2384, 0.2003, 0.1172, 0.0858, 0.0981, 0.0913, 0.1049, 0.2643, 0.2657, 0.1567, 0.109, 0.0313, -0.0095, 0.0409, 0.0054, -0.0313, -0.0245, 0.0041, -0.0518, -0.0708, -0.0422, 0.0858, 0.1117, 0.0858, 0.0422, 0.0, 0.0586, 0.0341, -0.0572, -0.015, -0.1063, -0.1063, 0.0858, 0.1553, 0.2766, 0.1662, 0.1063, 0.0681, 0.0245, -0.0886, -0.1608, -0.0804, 0.0477, 0.0545, 0.0599, 0.0599, 0.049, -0.0272, -0.0477, -0.0545, 0.0327, -0.0259, -0.0395, 0.0095, -0.0463, -0.0395, -0.1063, -0.1185, -0.0831, -0.1662, -0.1444, -0.1335, -0.1253, -0.1458, -0.1444, -0.1444, -0.1812, -0.2057, -0.2044, -0.2057, -0.2057, -0.173, -0.139, -0.0559, -0.1662, -0.124, -0.0068, -0.0436, -0.0777, -0.0954, -0.1417, -0.0913, -0.0913, -0.1294, -0.1172, -0.1253, -0.1812, -0.2003, -0.2084, -0.2153, -0.2398, -0.2984, -0.3433, -0.3011, -0.3188, -0.3597, -0.3351, -0.327, -0.361, -0.3515, -0.4033, -0.3944, -0.3944, -0.4101, -0.3692, -0.3665, -0.3188, -0.3488, -0.3038, -0.3215, -0.2629, -0.2616, -0.312, -0.3229, -0.3351, -0.2943, -0.3188, -0.3079, -0.3174, -0.282, -0.3406, -0.3256, -0.2943, -0.2425, -0.2807, -0.2997, -0.3311, -0.2902, -0.2943, -0.3052, -0.3324, -0.346, -0.3965, -0.3624, -0.3774, -0.3542, -0.3542, -0.3719, -0.3801, -0.3678, -0.4128, -0.4114, -0.406, -0.3856, -0.3433, -0.282, -0.2793, -0.2711, -0.2575, -0.2602, -0.2888, -0.2493]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2001758498426613782", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-18T20:56:31+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short,", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author confirms a short position in TSLA (implied by parent context).", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Leonari13 I am pressed with your command of the English language. You must be having a bad day. I am short,", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Just short the fucking stock you absolute genius! Make a fortune. Get rich. But no. Just tweeting BS on the daily. You have no balls.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Teslabundan93v", "ret_m1d": -0.0333284761451873, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0333284761451873, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.025833807646193363, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.018451926681063435, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "bench_c_m1d": -0.014876549464123867, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.00448927929345333, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.00448927929345333, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.013552785517040422, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.00048401824382182657, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004005261049631503, "ret_p1w": 0.0041996789205021035, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0041996789205021035, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01937873758412567, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0001703272071633677, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004029351713338736, "ret_p1m": -0.09489624010705677, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.09489624010705677, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.12037236347947289, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09655052841772105, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0016542883106642758, "ret_p3m": -0.1739868153858548, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1739868153858548, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16852040070360785, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10094693435860136, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "bench_c_p3m": -0.07303988102725345, "ret_p6m": -0.15917413827631777, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.15917413827631777, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2619186809134971, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11606295453074023, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "bench_c_p6m": -0.04311118374557754, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.09489624010705677, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.12037236347947289, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09655052841772105, "price_path": [-0.1017, -0.119, -0.084, -0.1241, -0.0889, -0.0831, -0.08, -0.0495, -0.098, -0.1108, -0.0623, -0.104, -0.0924, -0.099, -0.1446, -0.0982, -0.112, -0.0998, -0.113, -0.0912, -0.0744, -0.0843, -0.0919, -0.0711, -0.1027, -0.064, -0.0472, -0.0452, -0.0895, -0.0555, -0.031, -0.0809, -0.0441, -0.0775, -0.1114, -0.0789, -0.0905, -0.1092, -0.1684, -0.1635, -0.154, -0.1699, -0.1642, -0.1823, -0.1909, -0.1357, -0.1323, -0.1175, -0.1175, -0.1101, -0.1101, -0.112, -0.0758, -0.0597, -0.0587, -0.0906, -0.079, -0.066, -0.0755, -0.0505, -0.0167, 0.0135, -0.0333, 0.0, -0.0045, 0.0111, 0.0045, 0.0042, 0.0042, -0.0169, -0.0491, -0.0599, -0.0696, -0.0696, -0.0937, -0.0656, -0.1043, -0.1075, -0.0984, -0.0794, -0.0712, -0.0748, -0.0914, -0.0927, -0.0949, -0.0949, -0.1327, -0.1074, -0.0704, -0.071, -0.0997, -0.1086, -0.1074, -0.1382, -0.1096, -0.1274, -0.127, -0.16, -0.1782, -0.1495, -0.1366, -0.1203, -0.114, -0.1372, -0.1364, -0.1364, -0.1505, -0.1491, -0.1483, -0.148, -0.1728, -0.1531, -0.1365, -0.1547, -0.1673, -0.1656, -0.1881, -0.1602, -0.161, -0.1792, -0.1752, -0.174, -0.1563, -0.1828, -0.1907, -0.1817, -0.174, -0.1874, -0.2132, -0.2388, -0.2121, -0.2076, -0.2015, -0.2302, -0.2514, -0.265, -0.2309, -0.2112, -0.254, -0.254, -0.2701, -0.2828, -0.2899, -0.285, -0.2781, -0.2709, -0.2465, -0.1891, -0.1954, -0.1712, -0.188, -0.2006, -0.1983, -0.2268, -0.2215, -0.2166, -0.2221, -0.2287, -0.2105, -0.1915, -0.188, -0.1945, -0.1751, -0.1481, -0.1138, -0.0794, -0.1033, -0.0788, -0.0829, -0.1265, -0.1518, -0.164, -0.1368, -0.1355, -0.1187, -0.1187, -0.103, -0.089, -0.0854, -0.0984, -0.1396, -0.1234, -0.1234, -0.1343, -0.1911, -0.154, -0.1793, -0.2106, -0.1742, -0.1592]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1981164210240307421", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-23T01:02:10+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": true, "quote": "$TSLA is worth more than the other 20 automakers combined. However the other 20 companies combined generate 23x in revenues and 20x in EBIT. Sounds about right.", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Sarcastic endorsement of TSLA's premium valuation vs peers generating 23x revenue and 20x EBIT; actually bearish on TSLA valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA revenues $98B vs $2.244T for the other 20 automakers combined. $TSLA EBIT $7B vs $144B for the other 20 combined.\nSo let me get this straight. \n$TSLA is worth more than the other 20 automakers combined. However the other  20 companies combined generate 23x in revenues and 20x in EBIT.  Sounds about right.\n@RealJimChanos @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @fallacyalarm @amitisinvesting", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Tesla is worth more than the next 20 automakers combined. $TSLA https://t.co/9uBgW7x3LW", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.022295000936978893, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.022295000936978893, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.016399903782710612, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.017806284966432218, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005895097154268281, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004488715970546675, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03398817183887881, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03398817183887881, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.04216072653335923, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.031009690100818887, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.008172554694480416, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0029784817380599238, "ret_p1w": -0.019778174229415524, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.019778174229415524, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03179144211439666, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.00039659879082654115, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012013267884981138, "bench_c_p1w": -0.019381575438588983, "ret_p1m": -0.12893673043765042, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.12893673043765042, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10998646979885018, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07494508386440168, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.01895026063880023, "bench_c_p1m": -0.05399164657324873, "ret_p3m": -0.06621678083399896, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.06621678083399896, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.07786103830176472, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.06765218596115796, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.011644257467765762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0014354051271590063, "ret_p6m": -0.10771084388122842, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.10771084388122842, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.17086366045767476, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.12202471153687577, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06315281657644634, "bench_c_p6m": 0.01431386765564735, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.12893673043765042, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10998646979885018, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07494508386440168, "price_path": [-0.2748, -0.2846, -0.2894, -0.3134, -0.326, -0.3112, -0.3124, -0.2875, -0.2822, -0.2658, -0.2449, -0.2409, -0.2441, -0.2526, -0.2638, -0.2535, -0.2665, -0.2786, -0.287, -0.2427, -0.228, -0.2167, -0.2213, -0.2294, -0.2564, -0.2564, -0.2664, -0.2559, -0.246, -0.2186, -0.2285, -0.2272, -0.2254, -0.1786, -0.1181, -0.0867, -0.0609, -0.0515, -0.0716, -0.051, -0.0329, -0.0515, -0.0138, -0.057, -0.0191, -0.0129, -0.0095, 0.0233, -0.0289, -0.0427, 0.0095, -0.0354, -0.0229, -0.0299, -0.079, -0.0291, -0.044, -0.0308, -0.0451, -0.0215, -0.0035, -0.0142, -0.0223, 0.0, -0.034, 0.0077, 0.0258, 0.0279, -0.0198, 0.0169, 0.0432, -0.0105, 0.0292, -0.0068, -0.0433, -0.0084, -0.0208, -0.0409, -0.1047, -0.0994, -0.0892, -0.1063, -0.1002, -0.1197, -0.1289, -0.0695, -0.0659, -0.0499, -0.0499, -0.0419, -0.042, -0.044, -0.005, 0.0124, 0.0134, -0.0209, -0.0085, 0.0055, -0.0047, 0.0222, 0.0586, 0.0911, 0.0407, 0.0766, 0.0718, 0.0885, 0.0815, 0.0811, 0.0811, 0.0584, 0.0237, 0.0121, 0.0016, 0.0016, -0.0243, 0.006, -0.0357, -0.0391, -0.0294, -0.0088, -0.0, -0.004, -0.0218, -0.0232, -0.0256, -0.0256, -0.0662, -0.0391, 0.0008, 0.0002, -0.0307, -0.0403, -0.039, -0.0722, -0.0414, -0.0605, -0.0602, -0.0957, -0.1153, -0.0843, -0.0705, -0.0529, -0.0461, -0.0711, -0.0702, -0.0702, -0.0854, -0.0839, -0.083, -0.0828, -0.1095, -0.0882, -0.0703, -0.09, -0.1035, -0.1017, -0.126, -0.0959, -0.0967, -0.1164, -0.112, -0.1108, -0.0917, -0.1202, -0.1287, -0.119, -0.1107, -0.1252, -0.153, -0.1805, -0.1517, -0.1469, -0.1404, -0.1712, -0.1941, -0.2087, -0.172, -0.1508, -0.1969, -0.1969, -0.2142, -0.2279, -0.2355, -0.2302, -0.2228, -0.2151, -0.1888, -0.127, -0.1338, -0.1077]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1991562238684196874", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-20T17:40:13+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN bulls beware. #bagjob #overvalued", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Warns OPEN bulls; tags it overvalued and a bagjob — bearish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN bulls beware. \n#bagjob #overvalued\n@m3_melody @dayetweets @UnicusResearch @APompliano @cvpayne https://t.co/kiLtS77nF6", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.08603899723000952, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.08603899723000952, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07056084845123456, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.08257115026463024, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015478148778774958, "bench_c_m1d": 0.003467846965379273, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.09577924792250725, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.09577924792250725, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0858181097535422, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08265057515224106, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009961138168965045, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013128672770266192, "ret_p1w": 0.26298707833196167, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.26298707833196167, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.22137985123479886, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.23573905795968253, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0416072270971628, "bench_c_p1w": 0.027248020372279136, "ret_p1m": 0.03246757971695691, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03246757971695691, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.013616217957067356, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.033458448570409915, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04608379767402426, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0009908688534530086, "ret_p3m": -0.29707791705138753, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.29707791705138753, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3466352867752238, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3974052801751371, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.049557369723836286, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10032736312374957, "ret_p6m": -0.2889610027699905, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2889610027699905, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4281864408120317, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3787850978406264, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13922543804204124, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08982409507063593, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03246757971695691, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.013616217957067356, "alpha_c_stated": -0.033458448570409915, "price_path": [-0.263, -0.237, -0.3474, -0.3068, -0.2776, -0.2776, -0.1737, -0.1672, -0.0325, 0.0795, -0.0195, -0.0081, -0.0487, 0.7078, 0.4724, 0.5414, 0.4481, 0.6575, 0.6136, 0.5536, 0.3604, 0.151, 0.336, 0.4756, 0.4302, 0.3312, 0.2938, 0.3084, 0.3003, 0.3166, 0.5065, 0.5081, 0.3782, 0.3214, 0.2289, 0.1802, 0.2403, 0.1981, 0.1542, 0.1623, 0.1964, 0.1299, 0.1071, 0.1412, 0.2938, 0.3247, 0.2938, 0.2419, 0.1916, 0.2614, 0.2321, 0.1234, 0.1737, 0.0649, 0.0649, 0.2938, 0.3766, 0.5211, 0.3896, 0.3182, 0.2727, 0.2208, 0.086, 0.0, 0.0958, 0.2484, 0.2565, 0.263, 0.263, 0.25, 0.1591, 0.1347, 0.1266, 0.2305, 0.1607, 0.1445, 0.2029, 0.1364, 0.1445, 0.0649, 0.0503, 0.0925, -0.0065, 0.0195, 0.0325, 0.0422, 0.0179, 0.0195, 0.0195, -0.0244, -0.0536, -0.0519, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0146, 0.026, 0.125, -0.0065, 0.0438, 0.1834, 0.1396, 0.099, 0.0779, 0.0227, 0.0828, 0.0828, 0.0373, 0.0519, 0.0422, -0.0244, -0.0471, -0.0568, -0.0649, -0.0942, -0.164, -0.2175, -0.1672, -0.1883, -0.237, -0.2078, -0.1981, -0.2386, -0.2273, -0.289, -0.2784, -0.2784, -0.2971, -0.2484, -0.2451, -0.1883, -0.224, -0.1705, -0.1916, -0.1218, -0.1201, -0.1802, -0.1932, -0.2078, -0.1591, -0.1883, -0.1753, -0.1867, -0.1445, -0.2143, -0.1964, -0.1591, -0.0974, -0.1429, -0.1656, -0.2029, -0.1542, -0.1591, -0.1721, -0.2045, -0.2208, -0.2808, -0.2403, -0.2581, -0.2305, -0.2305, -0.2516, -0.2614, -0.2468, -0.3003, -0.2987, -0.2922, -0.2679, -0.2175, -0.1445, -0.1412, -0.1315, -0.1153, -0.1185, -0.1526, -0.1055, -0.125, -0.1104, -0.0942, -0.1266, -0.1169, -0.1672, -0.151, -0.1136, -0.1364, -0.1867, -0.2127, -0.2354, -0.2565, -0.2744, -0.289]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2004910756035248206", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-27T13:42:28+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Musk is setting them up for a big disappointment, as Tesla has yet to obtain Level 4 AV authorization from the Texas DMV... Tesla can't even obtain its permit from the Texas DMV until late May... Tesla's FSD is still far from Level 4 autonomy", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: robotaxi launch is regulatory theater; no DMV permit until May 2026, FSD not Level 4, Musk overpromising and setting investors up for disappointment.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Thank you for your attention to this matter. $TSLA https://t.co/Bw6GWjQkBO\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/AHZrUvLTvo\n\n---\n\n“On December 8th, Musk announced that Tesla’s robotaxis in Austin would be driverless in “about 3 weeks”, sending the stock up by 11% in 6 trading days to a new all-time high of $490, despite a 2% decline in the Nasdaq 100. \nThere’ve been 3 videos on Twitter showing driverless robotaxis in Austin since then, but Tesla failed to close above its December 16th all-time high of $490, which is a bad sign, given the excitement over these clips. \nTesla amped things up on Tuesday, with an updated Robotaxi page on its website, announcing that “Autonomous Robotaxi rides are currently being offered in Austin, Texas” (see Video 1 below), and confirming that “unoccupied testing” began in mid-December. \nWhile the majority of retail investors and some large institutional investors are interpreting this as Tesla’s official robotaxi launch, Musk is setting them up for a big disappointment, as Tesla has yet to obtain Level 4 AV authorization from the Texas DMV. \nThis is why the fine print on the Robotaxi page of Tesla’s website says, “No rides are available to the general public at this time”, which is another example of Tesla telling investors one thing, while reporting another to the regulators (the main reason why the California DMV was able to charge Tesla with consumer fraud over its marketing of FSD). \n•The real reason for Musk’s dog & pony show in Austin: Musk likely feels compelled to show some driverless robotaxis transporting employees around Austin to fulfill his promise of “removing the safety drivers” by year end. But this is purely a show, as Tesla can’t offer paid rides in Austin due to the new robotaxi laws adopted in December, which state that paid driverless rides require AV authorization from the DMV. It’ll be interesting to see how Musk walks this back on the Q4 2025 earnings call in late January. \n•Tesla can’t even obtain its permit from the Texas DMV until late May: Due to the installation of a new computer system to handle permits for AV testing and robotaxi operations in Texas, the DMV won’t be able to issue permits until May 28, 2026. So, even if Tesla were to declare FSD as Level 4-compliant tomorrow, it wouldn’t be able to obtain the proper permit until late May. Waymo obtained its permit under the old laws in 2024, which is why it’s expanding its services statewide in Texas while Tesla is stuck in Austin. \n•New Texas robotaxi laws are strict and present more hurdles for Tesla: As explained in my last report, Tesla Will Fail to Go Driverless in 2026 (here [https://t.co/nirWkzNMvw]), Tesla’s FSD is still far from Level 4 autonomy, as was underlined by the recent California DMV ruling. While Musk wields immense political power in Texas, the stricter robotaxi laws were installed by the insurance and car dealers’ lobbies, which also have significant political influence in the State. Because of this, Tesla must prove to the Texas DMV that FSD meets the definitions of Level 4 autonomy (tough call, in my opinion). \n•Recent robotaxi crash data in Austin raises eyebrows: While Tesla reported to the City of Austin that only 2 of its 8 robotaxi crashes were its own fault (link here [https://t.co/ydORWqrZMn]), a closer look at what they reported to NHTSA raises many red flags. The 8th crash in October was more heavily redacted than usual, even though it had to be towed away. This, along with other details of Tesla’s robotaxi crashes in Austin, further highlights how far FSD is from Level 4 driverless capabilities.”", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03383079648725196, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03383079648725196, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.030254397934510457, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02390106206676501, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009929734420486946, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.011335005235871831, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011335005235871831, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010113791622506807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007280395372829984, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004054609863041847, "ret_p1w": -0.017339659226142667, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.017339659226142667, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.017150723475002683, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012788562642076506, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004551096584066161, "ret_p1m": -0.06252723835181184, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07775270436193038, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015225466010118538, "ret_p3m": -0.19043169982453256, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19043169982453256, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13082826865138253, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09277859946366851, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09765310036086405, "ret_p6m": -0.16976335134041243, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.16976335134041243, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24191352582498715, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11486610533000619, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05489724601040624, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07775270436193038, "price_path": [-0.0004, -0.0514, -0.0649, -0.0139, -0.0578, -0.0456, -0.0524, -0.1004, -0.0516, -0.0661, -0.0533, -0.0672, -0.0442, -0.0266, -0.0371, -0.045, -0.0232, -0.0564, -0.0157, 0.002, 0.0041, -0.0425, -0.0067, 0.019, -0.0335, 0.0053, -0.0299, -0.0655, -0.0314, -0.0436, -0.0632, -0.1254, -0.1203, -0.1103, -0.127, -0.1211, -0.1401, -0.1491, -0.0911, -0.0875, -0.0719, -0.0719, -0.0641, -0.0642, -0.0661, -0.0281, -0.0111, -0.0101, -0.0436, -0.0315, -0.0178, -0.0277, -0.0015, 0.0341, 0.0658, 0.0166, 0.0516, 0.0469, 0.0633, 0.0564, 0.056, 0.056, 0.0338, 0.0, -0.0113, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0469, -0.0173, -0.058, -0.0614, -0.0519, -0.0318, -0.0232, -0.0271, -0.0445, -0.0458, -0.0482, -0.0482, -0.0879, -0.0614, -0.0224, -0.023, -0.0532, -0.0625, -0.0613, -0.0937, -0.0636, -0.0823, -0.082, -0.1167, -0.1358, -0.1056, -0.0921, -0.0749, -0.0682, -0.0926, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.1066, -0.1051, -0.1043, -0.104, -0.1301, -0.1093, -0.0919, -0.1111, -0.1243, -0.1225, -0.1462, -0.1168, -0.1177, -0.1369, -0.1326, -0.1314, -0.1127, -0.1406, -0.1489, -0.1394, -0.1313, -0.1455, -0.1726, -0.1995, -0.1714, -0.1667, -0.1603, -0.1904, -0.2128, -0.227, -0.1912, -0.1705, -0.2155, -0.2155, -0.2324, -0.2458, -0.2532, -0.2481, -0.2408, -0.2333, -0.2076, -0.1473, -0.1539, -0.1284, -0.1461, -0.1593, -0.1569, -0.1869, -0.1813, -0.1762, -0.1819, -0.1889, -0.1697, -0.1497, -0.146, -0.1529, -0.1325, -0.1041, -0.0681, -0.0319, -0.057, -0.0313, -0.0355, -0.0814, -0.108, -0.1208, -0.0922, -0.0909, -0.0732, -0.0732, -0.0567, -0.0419, -0.0382, -0.0519, -0.0952, -0.0781, -0.0782, -0.0896, -0.1493, -0.1103, -0.137, -0.1698, -0.1316, -0.1158, -0.1055, -0.1196, -0.1376, -0.1287, -0.1287, -0.1188, -0.1698]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1970464996737065153", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-23T12:27:19+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "at 20x EV/revenue, $OPEN is wildly overvalued", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: 20x EV/revenue makes it wildly overvalued despite the bull thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@originalclanker @Opendoor @rabois @nejatian Look at the numbers and you might learn something.\nIt is plainly obvious that at 20x EV/revenue, $OPEN is wildly overvalued. \nPERIOD.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "I don’t understand @Opendoor doubters.\n\nResidential real estate transactions SUCK. \n\nIt’s a horrendous experience for sellers and buyers. Everywhere. Worldwide.\n\nA) Opendoor fixes this. Period.\n\nB) @rabois and @nejatian are building a team of killers.\n\nWhat more do you want? 🐂", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "tcnoca", "ret_m1d": 0.18194639408888724, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.18194639408888724, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.17647303658561797, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.1898035741777897, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005473357503269272, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00785718008890246, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.1607897553052, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.1607897553052, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.16397132703893902, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.17102778320642764, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.003181571733739008, "bench_c_p1d": -0.010238027901227631, "ret_p1w": 0.1241184229428478, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.1241184229428478, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.11964035631997305, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.12102312497041479, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0044780666228747545, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00309529797243302, "ret_p1m": -0.038081801849885966, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.038081801849885966, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.04500253462374937, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.050938920862717674, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.006920732773863403, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012857119012831708, "ret_p3m": -0.10296191866893434, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.10296191866893434, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1322001425525936, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0631999978554123, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.029238223883659265, "bench_c_p3m": -0.039761920813522034, "ret_p6m": -0.2552891260684784, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2552891260684784, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2555520996238614, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.2666994415464323, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0002629735553829615, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011410315477953903, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.038081801849885966, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.04500253462374937, "alpha_c_stated": 0.050938920862717674, "price_path": [-0.9241, -0.9213, -0.9248, -0.9203, -0.9202, -0.914, -0.914, -0.9117, -0.8968, -0.8961, -0.8755, -0.8901, -0.8729, -0.8533, -0.7898, -0.7673, -0.6827, -0.5472, -0.5938, -0.677, -0.6587, -0.6417, -0.67, -0.7109, -0.708, -0.7405, -0.7038, -0.653, -0.6446, -0.732, -0.7391, -0.725, -0.6742, -0.6516, -0.6587, -0.5712, -0.5529, -0.4669, -0.4894, -0.5458, -0.4922, -0.2934, -0.3597, -0.3371, -0.433, -0.3977, -0.3724, -0.3724, -0.2821, -0.2764, -0.1594, -0.0621, -0.1481, -0.1382, -0.1735, 0.4838, 0.2793, 0.3392, 0.2581, 0.4401, 0.402, 0.3498, 0.1819, 0.0, 0.1608, 0.2821, 0.2426, 0.1566, 0.1241, 0.1368, 0.1298, 0.1439, 0.3089, 0.3103, 0.1975, 0.1481, 0.0677, 0.0254, 0.0776, 0.0409, 0.0028, 0.0099, 0.0395, -0.0183, -0.0381, -0.0085, 0.1241, 0.1509, 0.1241, 0.079, 0.0353, 0.0959, 0.0705, -0.024, 0.0197, -0.0748, -0.0748, 0.1241, 0.1961, 0.3216, 0.2073, 0.1453, 0.1058, 0.0606, -0.0564, -0.1312, -0.048, 0.0846, 0.0917, 0.0973, 0.0973, 0.086, 0.0071, -0.0141, -0.0212, 0.0691, 0.0085, -0.0056, 0.0451, -0.0127, -0.0056, -0.0748, -0.0874, -0.0508, -0.1368, -0.1142, -0.103, -0.0945, -0.1157, -0.1142, -0.1142, -0.1523, -0.1777, -0.1763, -0.1777, -0.1777, -0.1439, -0.1086, -0.0226, -0.1368, -0.0931, 0.0282, -0.0099, -0.0451, -0.0635, -0.1114, -0.0592, -0.0592, -0.0987, -0.086, -0.0945, -0.1523, -0.1721, -0.1805, -0.1876, -0.213, -0.2736, -0.3202, -0.2764, -0.2948, -0.3371, -0.3117, -0.3032, -0.3385, -0.3286, -0.3822, -0.3731, -0.3731, -0.3893, -0.347, -0.3441, -0.2948, -0.3258, -0.2793, -0.2976, -0.237, -0.2355, -0.2877, -0.299, -0.3117, -0.2694, -0.2948, -0.2835, -0.2934, -0.2567, -0.3173, -0.3018, -0.2694, -0.2158, -0.2553]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2003568891348316501", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-23T20:50:22+00:00", "symbol": "SRXH", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Eric, please do a reverse split. That will make it easier to short. ... $SRXH has 69.5mm shares outstanding, has registered 187mm shares for sale, with a potential for 2.8b share fully diluted! That makes the equity basically worthless.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish SRXH: massive dilution (2.8B fully diluted shares) makes equity basically worthless; explicitly soliciting a reverse split to make shorting easier.", "resolved_tickers": ["SRXH"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLP", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Packaged Foods'", "bench_c_industry": "Packaged Foods", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Pet food, crypto, 100 baggers  and @ericjackson - that’s not just a merger, that’s a sinking ship. \n\nSRXH was formerly known as Better Choice Company (pet food and wellness products) and rebranded to SRx Health Solutions in April 2025.\n\nIn December 2025, it announced a definitive agreement to acquire EMJ Crypto Technologies (EMJX), pivoting the business toward a digital-asset treasury management platform using AI, quantitative models, and risk controls for managing crypto and digital assets.”\n\nEric, please do a reverse split. That will make it easier to short. @APompliano @dayetweets\n\n---\n\n$SRXH has 69.5mm shares outstanding, has registered 187mm shares for sale, with a potential for 2.8b share fully diluted! That makes the equity basically worthless. @ericjackson @APompliano https://t.co/dJbWh3lTKI\n\n---\n\nYou can’t make this stuff up. https://t.co/2IqMfjowXi", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.35454549764798715, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.35454549764798715, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.3590951956354832, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.34977190848464157, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004549697987496049, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004773589163345582, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.17727274882399358, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.17727274882399358, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.17375507442774873, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.1694027505622726, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003517674396244841, "bench_c_p1d": 0.007869998261720967, "ret_p1w": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0013809369340025412, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.008257024481028052, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0013809369340025412, "bench_c_p1w": 0.008257024481028052, "ret_p1m": -0.22272725117600645, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.22272725117600645, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.21900613318701734, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.28633191550476755, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.003721117988989109, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0636046643287611, "ret_p3m": -0.44999999999999996, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.44999999999999996, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.39531844719648745, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.49876789510363495, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0546815528035125, "bench_c_p3m": 0.048767895103634995, "ret_p6m": -0.09090907243657698, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.09090907243657698, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.17088987506748354, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.17658848435606755, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07998080263090657, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08567941191949058, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.22272725117600645, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.21900613318701734, "alpha_c_stated": 0.28633191550476755, "price_path": [0.5409, 0.4909, 0.5364, 0.4409, 0.4545, 0.6, 0.5864, 0.6682, 0.5091, 0.5364, 0.6591, 0.5, 0.4591, 0.4545, 0.5, 0.4409, 0.45, 0.4864, 0.5045, 0.4591, 0.4545, 0.5045, 0.5682, 0.6818, 0.5364, 0.6, 0.3636, 0.3909, 0.2182, 0.3045, 0.2182, 0.0364, -0.0409, 0.0045, 0.1, 0.1091, 0.1136, 0.1227, 0.1955, 0.1909, 0.1227, 0.2455, 0.3591, 0.4591, 0.5091, 0.5091, 0.5545, 0.5636, 0.7455, 0.7909, 0.8182, 1.0, 1.0727, 1.1818, 1.65, 0.7273, 1.0955, 0.3864, 0.7136, 0.7045, 0.5227, 0.4182, 0.3545, 0.0, 0.1773, 0.1773, 0.2773, 0.0318, 0.0, 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.0818, -0.0773, -0.0818, -0.0864, -0.0955, -0.1227, -0.0909, -0.0818, -0.1364, -0.1364, -0.1909, -0.1909, -0.2182, -0.2227, -0.2955, -0.2727, -0.2955, -0.3182, -0.3182, -0.3636, -0.3818, -0.3682, -0.3364, -0.3682, -0.4136, -0.4273, -0.5, -0.2727, -0.3909, -0.3, -0.3227, -0.3227, -0.3909, -0.3864, -0.4182, -0.4273, -0.4591, -0.4227, -0.3818, -0.4136, -0.4318, -0.4455, -0.4727, -0.4409, -0.4409, -0.4545, -0.4409, -0.4045, -0.3455, -0.3955, -0.35, -0.3364, -0.3091, -0.3909, -0.4273, -0.45, -0.4182, -0.45, -0.4682, -0.4727, -0.4636, -0.4909, -0.4136, -0.4045, -0.3773, -0.3773, -0.3773, -0.2727, -0.3909, -0.3682, -0.4182, -0.3864, -0.3818, -0.4545, -0.4182, -0.4227, -0.4545, -0.4636, -0.4545, -0.4636, -0.4545, -0.4545, -0.4727, -0.4773, -0.4818, -0.4591, -0.4773, -0.4773, -0.4864, -0.4909, -0.4727, -0.4545, -0.4545, -0.3182, -0.3727, -0.4318, -0.4318, -0.4773, -0.4636, -0.4136, -0.4227, -0.4227, -0.4545, -0.4636, -0.4727, -0.4955, -0.4591, -0.4182, -0.4591, -0.4091, -0.45, -0.4318, -0.45, -0.4273, -0.4273, -0.3273, -0.2864, -0.1364, -0.0909]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986606247190110390", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-07T01:26:53+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA trading on 15x sales and 270x earnings, with the company likely to generate losses starting this 4q... In what universe is that worth $450?", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: 15x sales, 270x earnings, cumulative EPS $9 since inception, losses expected in 4Q — stock uninvestable at $450.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This fellow is clueless. Not  only is $TSLA trading on 15x sales and 270x earnings, with the company likely to generate losses starting this 4q, but $TSLA has produced total cumulative EPS of $9 since inception. CUMULATIVE SINCE INCEPTION and now likely to fall into losses!!!  In what universe is that worth $450?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.038158910103519794, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.038158910103519794, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03914241504805582, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03972758446467206, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015686743611522669, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03657576451501576, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03657576451501576, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020971485887872454, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.023432300025805874, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015604278627143309, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013143464489209888, "ret_p1w": -0.058600259717726644, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.058600259717726644, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.060030987464608776, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0375284261728005, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0014307277468821322, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021071833544926144, "ret_p1m": 0.023421488675521296, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.023421488675521296, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.004553199000984165, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.022912676653968456, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01886828967453713, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0005088120215528402, "ret_p3m": -0.054735471804313485, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.054735471804313485, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08044106070438295, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07515446659403413, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.025705588900069465, "bench_c_p3m": 0.020418994789720646, "ret_p6m": -0.08616590658105283, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.08616590658105283, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.1623665819461847, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.08837271113807688, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07620067536513186, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0022068045570240447, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.054735471804313485, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08044106070438295, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07515446659403413, "price_path": [-0.2065, -0.2099, -0.2187, -0.2304, -0.2197, -0.2333, -0.2459, -0.2547, -0.2084, -0.1931, -0.1812, -0.1861, -0.1945, -0.2227, -0.2227, -0.2332, -0.2222, -0.2118, -0.1832, -0.1935, -0.1922, -0.1903, -0.1413, -0.0782, -0.0454, -0.0184, -0.0085, -0.0295, -0.008, 0.0109, -0.0085, 0.0309, -0.0143, 0.0253, 0.0319, 0.0354, 0.0697, 0.0151, 0.0007, 0.0552, 0.0083, 0.0213, 0.014, -0.0373, 0.0149, -0.0007, 0.0131, -0.0018, 0.0228, 0.0417, 0.0305, 0.022, 0.0453, 0.0098, 0.0533, 0.0722, 0.0745, 0.0246, 0.063, 0.0904, 0.0343, 0.0758, 0.0382, 0.0, 0.0366, 0.0235, 0.0025, -0.0641, -0.0586, -0.048, -0.0658, -0.0594, -0.0798, -0.0895, -0.0273, -0.0236, -0.0068, -0.0068, 0.0015, 0.0014, -0.0007, 0.0401, 0.0582, 0.0593, 0.0234, 0.0364, 0.0511, 0.0404, 0.0685, 0.1066, 0.1405, 0.0879, 0.1254, 0.1203, 0.1379, 0.1305, 0.1301, 0.1301, 0.1063, 0.0701, 0.058, 0.047, 0.047, 0.0199, 0.0516, 0.008, 0.0044, 0.0146, 0.0361, 0.0453, 0.0412, 0.0225, 0.0211, 0.0186, 0.0186, -0.0239, 0.0045, 0.0462, 0.0455, 0.0132, 0.0032, 0.0045, -0.0302, 0.0021, -0.018, -0.0176, -0.0547, -0.0752, -0.0429, -0.0284, -0.01, -0.0029, -0.029, -0.0281, -0.0281, -0.044, -0.0424, -0.0415, -0.0412, -0.0691, -0.0469, -0.0282, -0.0488, -0.0629, -0.061, -0.0864, -0.0549, -0.0558, -0.0763, -0.0718, -0.0705, -0.0505, -0.0803, -0.0892, -0.0791, -0.0704, -0.0855, -0.1146, -0.1433, -0.1133, -0.1082, -0.1014, -0.1337, -0.1576, -0.1728, -0.1345, -0.1124, -0.1605, -0.1605, -0.1786, -0.1929, -0.2009, -0.1953, -0.1876, -0.1795, -0.1521, -0.0875, -0.0946, -0.0673, -0.0862, -0.1003, -0.0978, -0.1299, -0.1239, -0.1184, -0.1246, -0.1321, -0.1115, -0.0901, -0.0862]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1966647130417774876", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-12T23:36:29+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "22X EV/sales for this dump of a company $OPEN", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish Opendoor: 22x EV/sales seen as excessive for a fundamentally weak business.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "22X EV/sales for this dump of a company $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@8BB8B8 @GMN_watch @rabois Independent analyses (e.g., RealEstateWitch 2025 study of 409 homes) show Opendoor offers average 8.79% below resale value (~$26k less on $339k home), plus 5% fee and repairs (total 7-10%). Traditional sales net more via market competition, despite 5-6% commissions, but take", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.04476042083805021, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04476042083805021, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.039464838765678634, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.045942607545745084, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005295582072371574, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0011821867076948767, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.060558169162239994, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.060558169162239994, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.059181284208979945, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0546480752450067, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0013768849532600491, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0059100939172332945, "ret_p1w": -0.11743020374481139, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11743020374481139, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.12920011437334367, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.11005543721782352, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011769910628532276, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007374766526987875, "ret_p1m": -0.19536598645933112, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17917743588908375, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.00477530518646585, "bench_c_p1m": -0.016188550570247373, "ret_p3m": -0.2575039204100267, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2575039204100267, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.30315420208972554, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22940478278500354, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04565028167969887, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02809913762502314, "ret_p6m": -0.4723538399930335, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4723538399930335, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5028482094803816, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5059291739360562, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.030494369487348072, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0335753339430227, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17917743588908375, "price_path": [-0.9389, -0.9389, -0.9437, -0.9442, -0.9421, -0.9461, -0.9433, -0.9412, -0.9439, -0.9405, -0.9404, -0.9358, -0.9358, -0.9341, -0.9229, -0.9224, -0.907, -0.918, -0.9051, -0.8905, -0.8431, -0.8262, -0.763, -0.6619, -0.6967, -0.7588, -0.7451, -0.7325, -0.7536, -0.7841, -0.782, -0.8062, -0.7788, -0.7409, -0.7346, -0.7999, -0.8052, -0.7946, -0.7567, -0.7399, -0.7451, -0.6798, -0.6661, -0.6019, -0.6187, -0.6609, -0.6209, -0.4724, -0.5219, -0.505, -0.5766, -0.5503, -0.5313, -0.5313, -0.4639, -0.4597, -0.3723, -0.2996, -0.3639, -0.3565, -0.3828, 0.108, -0.0448, 0.0, -0.0606, 0.0753, 0.0469, 0.0079, -0.1174, -0.2533, -0.1332, -0.0427, -0.0721, -0.1364, -0.1606, -0.1511, -0.1564, -0.1459, -0.0226, -0.0216, -0.1058, -0.1427, -0.2027, -0.2343, -0.1954, -0.2227, -0.2512, -0.2459, -0.2238, -0.267, -0.2817, -0.2596, -0.1606, -0.1406, -0.1606, -0.1943, -0.227, -0.1817, -0.2006, -0.2712, -0.2385, -0.3091, -0.3091, -0.1606, -0.1069, -0.0132, -0.0985, -0.1448, -0.1743, -0.208, -0.2954, -0.3512, -0.2891, -0.1901, -0.1848, -0.1806, -0.1806, -0.189, -0.248, -0.2638, -0.2691, -0.2017, -0.247, -0.2575, -0.2196, -0.2628, -0.2575, -0.3091, -0.3186, -0.2912, -0.3555, -0.3386, -0.3302, -0.3239, -0.3397, -0.3386, -0.3386, -0.367, -0.386, -0.3849, -0.386, -0.386, -0.3607, -0.3344, -0.2701, -0.3555, -0.3228, -0.2322, -0.2607, -0.287, -0.3007, -0.3365, -0.2975, -0.2975, -0.327, -0.3175, -0.3239, -0.367, -0.3818, -0.3881, -0.3934, -0.4123, -0.4576, -0.4924, -0.4597, -0.4734, -0.505, -0.486, -0.4797, -0.5061, -0.4987, -0.5387, -0.5319, -0.5319, -0.544, -0.5124, -0.5103, -0.4734, -0.4966, -0.4618, -0.4755, -0.4302, -0.4292, -0.4681, -0.4766, -0.486, -0.4544, -0.4734, -0.465, -0.4724]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1973485197317513295", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-01T20:28:31+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "whatever one previously thought the valuation of OPEN should be, you should haircut that amount by 28%", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: convertible bond conversion causes staggering 28% dilution; prior valuations should be cut by that amount.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "In the aftermath of the discussion yesterday over the $OPEN convertible bond conversion, I was really struck by the fact that dilution will be a STAGGERING 28%. I think virtually all were unaware of the size of the dilution. I say that because there had been very little discussion of the size of the dilution on X. Instead, to the extent that the convertible had been previously discussed, the focus was on the impact of the conversion on the share price come October 1.  The key point is that whatever one previously thought the valuation of OPEN should be, you should haircut that amount by 28%. \nOne last point. Even more incredible is that so many investors don’t seem to care about this “minor” point. No words…", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.006242220887157535, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.006242220887157535, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.007392720509849515, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0009928836773043237, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0011504996226919806, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005249337209853211, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01248432271385469, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.01248432271385469, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.012499036161191523, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.008428012440506949, "bench_spy_p1d": -1.4713447336833774e-05, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004056310273347741, "ret_p1w": 0.016229726682425616, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.016229726682425616, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.013330717761846467, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.034841115094972785, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002899008920579149, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01861138841254717, "ret_p1m": -0.02996257691603399, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02996257691603399, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.049149280079406776, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.005863376730935843, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019186703163372787, "bench_c_p1m": -0.024099200185098146, "ret_p3m": -0.27091136258267856, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.27091136258267856, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3005280607269266, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2531358499394618, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.029616698144248055, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01777551264321675, "ret_p6m": -0.4007490569816221, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4007490569816221, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3536503005070156, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3723339531316503, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.047098756474606485, "bench_c_p6m": -0.028415103849971812, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02996257691603399, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.049149280079406776, "alpha_c_stated": 0.005863376730935843, "price_path": [-0.9218, -0.9086, -0.908, -0.8898, -0.9027, -0.8875, -0.8702, -0.814, -0.794, -0.7191, -0.5993, -0.6404, -0.7141, -0.6979, -0.6829, -0.7079, -0.7441, -0.7416, -0.7703, -0.7378, -0.6929, -0.6854, -0.7628, -0.769, -0.7566, -0.7116, -0.6916, -0.6979, -0.6205, -0.6042, -0.5281, -0.5481, -0.598, -0.5506, -0.3745, -0.4332, -0.4132, -0.4981, -0.4669, -0.4444, -0.4444, -0.3645, -0.3596, -0.2559, -0.1698, -0.2459, -0.2372, -0.2684, 0.3134, 0.1323, 0.1854, 0.1136, 0.2747, 0.2409, 0.1948, 0.0462, -0.1149, 0.0275, 0.1348, 0.0999, 0.0237, -0.005, 0.0062, 0.0, 0.0125, 0.1586, 0.1598, 0.0599, 0.0162, -0.0549, -0.0924, -0.0462, -0.0787, -0.1124, -0.1061, -0.0799, -0.1311, -0.1486, -0.1223, -0.005, 0.0187, -0.005, -0.0449, -0.0836, -0.03, -0.0524, -0.1361, -0.0974, -0.181, -0.181, -0.005, 0.0587, 0.1698, 0.0687, 0.0137, -0.0212, -0.0612, -0.1648, -0.231, -0.1573, -0.04, -0.0337, -0.0287, -0.0287, -0.0387, -0.1086, -0.1273, -0.1336, -0.0537, -0.1074, -0.1199, -0.0749, -0.1261, -0.1199, -0.181, -0.1923, -0.1598, -0.236, -0.216, -0.206, -0.1985, -0.2172, -0.216, -0.216, -0.2497, -0.2722, -0.2709, -0.2722, -0.2722, -0.2422, -0.211, -0.1348, -0.236, -0.1973, -0.0899, -0.1236, -0.1548, -0.171, -0.2135, -0.1673, -0.1673, -0.2022, -0.191, -0.1985, -0.2497, -0.2672, -0.2747, -0.2809, -0.3034, -0.3571, -0.3983, -0.3596, -0.3758, -0.4132, -0.3908, -0.3833, -0.4145, -0.4057, -0.4532, -0.4451, -0.4451, -0.4594, -0.422, -0.4195, -0.3758, -0.4032, -0.362, -0.3783, -0.3246, -0.3233, -0.3695, -0.3795, -0.3908, -0.3533, -0.3758, -0.3658, -0.3745, -0.3421, -0.3958, -0.382, -0.3533, -0.3059, -0.3408, -0.3583, -0.387, -0.3496, -0.3533, -0.3633, -0.3883, -0.4007]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2004247558256742819", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-25T17:47:09+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "TSLA would still not be worth even $100 per share based on a sum of the parts analysis. Liars figure. Figures don't lie. Ignore the narrative. Follow the fundamentals.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: auto biz worth only $20/share, non-existent future businesses overvalued at $1.5T, sum-of-parts below $100; fundamentals say sell.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The story of $TSLA has been a share  price buoyed by an endless stream of narratives, lies and broken promises. \n\nLooking beyond the hype, TSLA has generated CUMULATIVE earnings of $38B since inception, yet enjoys a market cap of $1.6T. \n\nThe automotive related business is 87% of revenues, is very challenged and will experience a third consecutive year of falling sales in 2026. The auto business is worth only $20 per share based on comparative valuations. \n\nThe bulls respond by pointing to the future, citing robotaxis, oculus and AI. None of those businesses are presently generating any revenues. \nNevertheless, the market has already ascribed a valuation of nearly $1.5T to those businesses. This is sheer madness. Even if one were to place a value on these non existent business by looking at comparable companies, \n$TSLA would still not be worth even \n$100 per share based on a sum of the parts analysis. \n\nLiars figure. Figures don’t lie.\n\nIgnore the narrative. Follow the fundamentals.\n\nAs my former boss Peter Lynch always says, “KNOW WHAT YOU OWN.”\n\nThe emperor is wearing no clothes.\n\n@DougKass @HedgeyeIndstrls \n@GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.021486124292644515, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.021486124292644515, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021384704342229277, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01706180290772985, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010141995041523799, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0044243213849146645, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03272372674735757, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03272372674735757, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.029160073239862805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.022891622510734844, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0035636535074947684, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00983210423662273, "ret_p1w": -0.07811611129542784, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07811611129542784, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06777287631722473, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.047800582087406784, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010343234978203109, "bench_c_p1w": -0.030315529208021053, "ret_p1m": -0.08415579037630527, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0863679196883711, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.003505699250114569, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0022121293120658247, "ret_p3m": -0.1877985432687609, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1877985432687609, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.14188259400824654, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09687216461676584, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.045915949260514344, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09092637865199504, "ret_p6m": -0.14760414631636987, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14760414631636987, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23167639643130056, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.09312144798931499, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08407225011493069, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05448269832705488, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0863679196883711, "price_path": [-0.0641, -0.0331, -0.0825, -0.0955, -0.0462, -0.0886, -0.0768, -0.0834, -0.1298, -0.0827, -0.0967, -0.0843, -0.0977, -0.0755, -0.0584, -0.0686, -0.0762, -0.0552, -0.0873, -0.0479, -0.0308, -0.0288, -0.0738, -0.0392, -0.0144, -0.0651, -0.0276, -0.0616, -0.0961, -0.063, -0.0749, -0.0938, -0.154, -0.1491, -0.1395, -0.1556, -0.1498, -0.1683, -0.177, -0.1208, -0.1174, -0.1023, -0.1023, -0.0947, -0.0948, -0.0967, -0.0599, -0.0435, -0.0425, -0.0749, -0.0632, -0.05, -0.0596, -0.0342, 0.0003, 0.0309, -0.0167, 0.0172, 0.0126, 0.0285, 0.0218, 0.0215, 0.0215, 0.0, -0.0327, -0.0437, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0781, -0.0495, -0.0889, -0.0921, -0.0829, -0.0635, -0.0552, -0.0589, -0.0757, -0.0771, -0.0793, -0.0793, -0.1177, -0.0921, -0.0544, -0.055, -0.0842, -0.0932, -0.092, -0.1234, -0.0942, -0.1123, -0.112, -0.1456, -0.1641, -0.1349, -0.1218, -0.1052, -0.0987, -0.1223, -0.1215, -0.1215, -0.1359, -0.1344, -0.1336, -0.1334, -0.1586, -0.1385, -0.1216, -0.1402, -0.1529, -0.1512, -0.1742, -0.1457, -0.1466, -0.1651, -0.161, -0.1598, -0.1418, -0.1687, -0.1768, -0.1676, -0.1598, -0.1734, -0.1997, -0.2257, -0.1985, -0.1939, -0.1878, -0.2169, -0.2386, -0.2523, -0.2177, -0.1977, -0.2412, -0.2412, -0.2575, -0.2705, -0.2777, -0.2727, -0.2657, -0.2584, -0.2336, -0.1752, -0.1816, -0.1569, -0.174, -0.1868, -0.1845, -0.2135, -0.2081, -0.2031, -0.2087, -0.2155, -0.1969, -0.1776, -0.174, -0.1806, -0.1609, -0.1334, -0.0986, -0.0635, -0.0878, -0.063, -0.0671, -0.1114, -0.1372, -0.1496, -0.1219, -0.1207, -0.1035, -0.1035, -0.0875, -0.0733, -0.0696, -0.0829, -0.1248, -0.1083, -0.1084, -0.1194, -0.1772, -0.1394, -0.1652, -0.197, -0.16, -0.1447, -0.1348, -0.1484, -0.1658, -0.1572, -0.1572, -0.1476]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1976738683312038114", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-10T19:56:42+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is more accurately described as the most overvalued house flipping company in the world", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN; dismisses bull thesis, calls it the most overvalued house-flipping company in the world.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@mani_parmar $OPEN is more accurately described as the most overvalued house flipping company in the world. There, I fixed it for you. @dayetweets @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @doomerzoomer", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "$OPEN Last line 🔥 - Opendoor will become the most aggressive software company in the world.\n\nYes, today it was supposed to bounce but dumped with the broader market.  \n\nCongrats who bought cheap shares like I did, our big green day will come very soon.\n\nKeep accumulating 🚀 https://t.co/woXobDqtjS", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "mani_parmar", "ret_m1d": 0.07529724686073291, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07529724686073291, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04751858688864874, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0642353529926456, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.027778659972084174, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011061893868087314, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03963014318783331, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03963014318783331, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05497426132300165, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04528398079942775, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015344118135168339, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005653837611594437, "ret_p1w": -0.05416120408875569, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05416120408875569, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07157267259170175, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08759285959128815, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01741146850294606, "bench_c_p1w": 0.033431655502532465, "ret_p1m": 0.0528401069299429, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0528401069299429, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.009319257620908461, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.039074136797816905, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04352084930903444, "bench_c_p1m": 0.013765970132125993, "ret_p3m": -0.19154560808735954, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19154560808735954, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2506520192860523, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.18905515846921594, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.059106411198692754, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0024904496181435976, "ret_p6m": -0.39101716922383445, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.39101716922383445, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4058129970531392, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4357600619981803, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.014795827829304775, "bench_c_p6m": 0.044742892774345844, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0528401069299429, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.009319257620908461, "alpha_c_stated": -0.039074136797816905, "price_path": [-0.8626, -0.8032, -0.782, -0.7028, -0.576, -0.6196, -0.6975, -0.6803, -0.6645, -0.6909, -0.7292, -0.7266, -0.7569, -0.7226, -0.675, -0.6671, -0.749, -0.7556, -0.7424, -0.6948, -0.6737, -0.6803, -0.5984, -0.5812, -0.5007, -0.5218, -0.5746, -0.5244, -0.3382, -0.4003, -0.3791, -0.469, -0.4359, -0.4122, -0.4122, -0.3276, -0.3223, -0.2127, -0.1215, -0.2021, -0.1929, -0.2259, 0.3897, 0.1982, 0.2543, 0.1783, 0.3487, 0.3131, 0.2642, 0.107, -0.0634, 0.0872, 0.2008, 0.1638, 0.0832, 0.0528, 0.0647, 0.0581, 0.0713, 0.2259, 0.2272, 0.1215, 0.0753, 0.0, -0.0396, 0.0092, -0.0251, -0.0608, -0.0542, -0.0264, -0.0806, -0.0991, -0.0713, 0.0528, 0.0779, 0.0528, 0.0106, -0.0304, 0.0264, 0.0026, -0.0859, -0.0449, -0.1334, -0.1334, 0.0528, 0.1202, 0.2378, 0.1308, 0.0727, 0.0357, -0.0066, -0.1162, -0.1863, -0.1083, 0.0159, 0.0225, 0.0277, 0.0277, 0.0172, -0.0568, -0.0766, -0.0832, 0.0013, -0.0555, -0.0687, -0.0211, -0.0753, -0.0687, -0.1334, -0.1453, -0.111, -0.1915, -0.1704, -0.1598, -0.1519, -0.1717, -0.1704, -0.1704, -0.2061, -0.2299, -0.2285, -0.2299, -0.2299, -0.1982, -0.1651, -0.0845, -0.1915, -0.1506, -0.037, -0.0727, -0.1057, -0.1229, -0.1678, -0.1189, -0.1189, -0.1559, -0.144, -0.1519, -0.2061, -0.2246, -0.2325, -0.2391, -0.2629, -0.3197, -0.3633, -0.3223, -0.3395, -0.3791, -0.3554, -0.3474, -0.3804, -0.3712, -0.4214, -0.4128, -0.4128, -0.428, -0.3884, -0.3857, -0.3395, -0.3686, -0.325, -0.3421, -0.2853, -0.284, -0.3329, -0.3435, -0.3554, -0.3157, -0.3395, -0.3289, -0.3382, -0.3038, -0.3606, -0.3461, -0.3157, -0.2655, -0.3025, -0.321, -0.3514, -0.3118, -0.3157, -0.3263, -0.3527, -0.3659, -0.4148, -0.3818, -0.3963, -0.3738, -0.3738, -0.391]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1990963518837788853", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-19T02:01:07+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN has been a lousy company, losing money every year since inception. Despite all the announcements and hype, $OPEN is still a low margin, asset heavy house flipper", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish Opendoor: persistently unprofitable, low-margin, asset-heavy model with hype but no substance.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "That is why $OPEN has been a lousy company, losing money every year since inception. Despite all the announcements and hype, $OPEN is still  a low margin, asset heavy house flipper.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.12406575734035208, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.12406575734035208, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12791406728254384, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.11616639431652498, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0038483099421917633, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0078993630238271, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07922275116221034, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07922275116221034, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0639805238455623, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07576688859933256, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.015242227316648038, "bench_c_p1d": -0.003455862562877776, "ret_p1w": 0.16292976730418163, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.16292976730418163, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.13719895433709706, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.1392317749082974, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02573081296708457, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023697992395884215, "ret_p1m": -0.06128547741484702, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06128547741484702, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08217181834784015, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06054494234248731, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02088634093299313, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0007405350723597159, "ret_p3m": -0.33557546582321374, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.33557546582321374, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.36747029874548853, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.4211200278595575, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.031894832922274796, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08554456203634375, "ret_p6m": -0.331838602098782, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.331838602098782, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.46735927557345414, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.434979862934183, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13552067347467212, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10314126083540098, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06128547741484702, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08217181834784015, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06054494234248731, "price_path": [-0.2511, -0.3214, -0.2975, -0.3991, -0.3617, -0.3348, -0.3348, -0.2392, -0.2332, -0.1091, -0.006, -0.0972, -0.0867, -0.1241, 0.5725, 0.3558, 0.4193, 0.3333, 0.5262, 0.4858, 0.4305, 0.2526, 0.0598, 0.2302, 0.3587, 0.3169, 0.2257, 0.1913, 0.2048, 0.1973, 0.2123, 0.3871, 0.3886, 0.2691, 0.2167, 0.1315, 0.0867, 0.142, 0.1031, 0.0628, 0.0703, 0.1016, 0.0404, 0.0194, 0.0508, 0.1913, 0.2197, 0.1913, 0.1435, 0.0972, 0.1614, 0.1345, 0.0344, 0.0807, -0.0194, -0.0194, 0.1913, 0.2676, 0.4006, 0.2795, 0.2138, 0.1719, 0.1241, 0.0, -0.0792, 0.009, 0.1495, 0.157, 0.1629, 0.1629, 0.151, 0.0673, 0.0448, 0.0374, 0.133, 0.0688, 0.0538, 0.1076, 0.0463, 0.0538, -0.0194, -0.0329, 0.006, -0.0852, -0.0613, -0.0493, -0.0404, -0.0628, -0.0613, -0.0613, -0.1016, -0.1286, -0.1271, -0.1286, -0.1286, -0.0927, -0.0553, 0.0359, -0.0852, -0.0389, 0.0897, 0.0493, 0.012, -0.0075, -0.0583, -0.003, -0.003, -0.0448, -0.0314, -0.0404, -0.1016, -0.1226, -0.1315, -0.139, -0.1659, -0.2302, -0.2795, -0.2332, -0.2526, -0.2975, -0.2706, -0.2616, -0.299, -0.2885, -0.3453, -0.3356, -0.3356, -0.3528, -0.3079, -0.3049, -0.2526, -0.2855, -0.2362, -0.2556, -0.1913, -0.1898, -0.2451, -0.2571, -0.2706, -0.2257, -0.2526, -0.2407, -0.2511, -0.2123, -0.2765, -0.2601, -0.2257, -0.1689, -0.2108, -0.2317, -0.2661, -0.2212, -0.2257, -0.2377, -0.2676, -0.2825, -0.3378, -0.3004, -0.3169, -0.2915, -0.2915, -0.3109, -0.3199, -0.3064, -0.3558, -0.3543, -0.3483, -0.3259, -0.2795, -0.2123, -0.2093, -0.2003, -0.1854, -0.1883, -0.2197, -0.1764, -0.1943, -0.1809, -0.1659, -0.1958, -0.1868, -0.2332, -0.2182, -0.1839, -0.2048, -0.2511, -0.275, -0.296, -0.3154, -0.3318]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2005330715966316944", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-28T17:31:14+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Discloses active short position in TSLA.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@bava23 @BradMunchen @WSJ @unusual_whales @WallStreetMav @wallstreetbets @WallStreetApes @themotleyfool @SawyerMerritt @garyblack00 @APompliano I am short", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @BradMunchen @WSJ @unusual_whales @WallStreetMav @wallstreetbets @WallStreetApes @themotleyfool @SawyerMerritt @garyblack00 @APompliano George 2026 is going to be rude awakening for you. \n\nWhy don’t you short $TSLA??", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "bava23", "ret_m1d": 0.03383079648725196, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03383079648725196, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.030254397934510457, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02390106206676501, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009929734420486946, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.011335005235871831, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011335005235871831, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010113791622506807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007280395372829984, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004054609863041847, "ret_p1w": -0.017339659226142667, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.017339659226142667, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.017150723475002683, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012788562642076506, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004551096584066161, "ret_p1m": -0.06252723835181184, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07775270436193038, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015225466010118538, "ret_p3m": -0.19043169982453256, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19043169982453256, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13082826865138253, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09277859946366851, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09765310036086405, "ret_p6m": -0.16976335134041243, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.16976335134041243, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24191352582498715, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11486610533000619, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05489724601040624, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07775270436193038, "price_path": [-0.0004, -0.0514, -0.0649, -0.0139, -0.0578, -0.0456, -0.0524, -0.1004, -0.0516, -0.0661, -0.0533, -0.0672, -0.0442, -0.0266, -0.0371, -0.045, -0.0232, -0.0564, -0.0157, 0.002, 0.0041, -0.0425, -0.0067, 0.019, -0.0335, 0.0053, -0.0299, -0.0655, -0.0314, -0.0436, -0.0632, -0.1254, -0.1203, -0.1103, -0.127, -0.1211, -0.1401, -0.1491, -0.0911, -0.0875, -0.0719, -0.0719, -0.0641, -0.0642, -0.0661, -0.0281, -0.0111, -0.0101, -0.0436, -0.0315, -0.0178, -0.0277, -0.0015, 0.0341, 0.0658, 0.0166, 0.0516, 0.0469, 0.0633, 0.0564, 0.056, 0.056, 0.0338, 0.0, -0.0113, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0469, -0.0173, -0.058, -0.0614, -0.0519, -0.0318, -0.0232, -0.0271, -0.0445, -0.0458, -0.0482, -0.0482, -0.0879, -0.0614, -0.0224, -0.023, -0.0532, -0.0625, -0.0613, -0.0937, -0.0636, -0.0823, -0.082, -0.1167, -0.1358, -0.1056, -0.0921, -0.0749, -0.0682, -0.0926, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.1066, -0.1051, -0.1043, -0.104, -0.1301, -0.1093, -0.0919, -0.1111, -0.1243, -0.1225, -0.1462, -0.1168, -0.1177, -0.1369, -0.1326, -0.1314, -0.1127, -0.1406, -0.1489, -0.1394, -0.1313, -0.1455, -0.1726, -0.1995, -0.1714, -0.1667, -0.1603, -0.1904, -0.2128, -0.227, -0.1912, -0.1705, -0.2155, -0.2155, -0.2324, -0.2458, -0.2532, -0.2481, -0.2408, -0.2333, -0.2076, -0.1473, -0.1539, -0.1284, -0.1461, -0.1593, -0.1569, -0.1869, -0.1813, -0.1762, -0.1819, -0.1889, -0.1697, -0.1497, -0.146, -0.1529, -0.1325, -0.1041, -0.0681, -0.0319, -0.057, -0.0313, -0.0355, -0.0814, -0.108, -0.1208, -0.0922, -0.0909, -0.0732, -0.0732, -0.0567, -0.0419, -0.0382, -0.0519, -0.0952, -0.0781, -0.0782, -0.0896, -0.1493, -0.1103, -0.137, -0.1698, -0.1316, -0.1158, -0.1055, -0.1196, -0.1376, -0.1287, -0.1287, -0.1188, -0.1698]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1983905260575060249", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-30T14:34:07+00:00", "symbol": "SLV", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "THIS", "tweet_type": "news_reaction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bullish options skew signal on SLV ETF, implying silver ETF moves higher.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THIS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "SLV ETF option Alert\n\nVery Bullish skew developing\n \nBased on very wide deviation of put call spreads on SLV ETF options from their respective moving averages,  it appears we are at the same bullish skew reading we were at on  June 4 of this year.  Put/Call spread are pointing to https://t.co/g3oul0jcnJ", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.025033843178432602, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.025033843178432602, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03615415352311657, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03615415352311657, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01112031034468397, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01112031034468397, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007442531121313656, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.007442531121313656, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.010722752911958344, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010722752911958344, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0032802217906446884, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0032802217906446884, "ret_p1w": -0.017816890230236804, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.017816890230236804, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.003813395647997986, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.003813395647997986, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.014003494582238818, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014003494582238818, "ret_p1m": 0.15493908227882125, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.15493908227882125, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.14970254982702103, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.14970254982702103, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.005236532451800224, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005236532451800224, "ret_p3m": 1.2911591337006652, "ret_signed_p3m": 1.2911591337006652, "alpha_spy_p3m": 1.265101122766472, "alpha_c_p3m": 1.265101122766472, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.026058010934193243, "bench_c_p3m": 0.026058010934193243, "ret_p6m": 0.5514208542805437, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5514208542805437, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4952669260981737, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4952669260981737, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05615392818236997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.05615392818236997, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.15493908227882125, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.14970254982702103, "alpha_c_stated": 0.14970254982702103, "price_path": [-0.2336, -0.2253, -0.2253, -0.2161, -0.2134, -0.2291, -0.224, -0.2106, -0.2219, -0.2219, -0.2208, -0.2361, -0.2235, -0.2194, -0.203, -0.2102, -0.2102, -0.2109, -0.1989, -0.1838, -0.1838, -0.1622, -0.1579, -0.1671, -0.1608, -0.154, -0.1615, -0.1563, -0.1477, -0.1353, -0.1258, -0.1295, -0.1477, -0.1432, -0.1195, -0.097, -0.0988, -0.1019, -0.0747, -0.0559, -0.0415, -0.0444, -0.0323, -0.0408, -0.0185, -0.0063, -0.0214, 0.005, 0.0083, 0.0246, 0.0659, 0.0555, 0.09, 0.1089, 0.0598, 0.0762, -0.0124, -0.0104, -0.0036, -0.0079, -0.0438, -0.037, -0.025, 0.0, -0.0074, -0.0131, -0.0361, -0.0156, -0.0178, -0.0095, 0.0327, 0.0476, 0.0898, 0.0695, 0.0365, 0.0255, 0.0397, 0.0476, 0.0325, 0.0217, 0.0516, 0.0525, 0.0916, 0.0916, 0.1549, 0.1845, 0.1982, 0.1969, 0.1673, 0.1942, 0.1888, 0.2442, 0.2645, 0.2995, 0.2652, 0.3106, 0.302, 0.359, 0.3378, 0.3742, 0.4089, 0.4623, 0.4709, 0.4709, 0.604, 0.4887, 0.5557, 0.4529, 0.4529, 0.4829, 0.558, 0.6624, 0.6004, 0.5722, 0.6324, 0.7418, 0.7727, 0.9071, 0.8791, 0.8272, 0.8272, 0.9258, 0.8935, 0.965, 1.0954, 1.2179, 1.2912, 1.3816, 1.3809, 0.7014, 0.6337, 0.7357, 0.7857, 0.5041, 0.583, 0.7149, 0.6556, 0.7267, 0.5275, 0.5724, 0.5724, 0.4968, 0.5807, 0.6015, 0.728, 0.8171, 0.7835, 0.8051, 0.8144, 0.9168, 0.8396, 0.6843, 0.6991, 0.675, 0.7127, 0.765, 0.8063, 0.7571, 0.7249, 0.6394, 0.6513, 0.6161, 0.5494, 0.4813, 0.3875, 0.4089, 0.4197, 0.4707, 0.3705, 0.4308, 0.4326, 0.5368, 0.5368, 0.4838, 0.4838, 0.4905, 0.4871, 0.5217, 0.5424, 0.558, 0.5399, 0.6247, 0.6202, 0.6067, 0.6606, 0.6272, 0.5447, 0.5871, 0.5422, 0.5514]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2001340710105317553", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-17T17:16:23+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Driverless robotaxis from $TSLA ain't happening any time soon in Texas or for that matter anywhere else. Level 2 FSD is not adequate for regulatory approval.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: robotaxi rollout not imminent anywhere; FSD Level 2 fails regulatory bar and safety-monitor removal is a publicity stunt.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Driverless robotaxis from $TSLA ain’t happening any time soon in Texas or for that matter anywhere else. Level 2 FSD is not adequate for regulatory approval. \n\nThe removal of safety monitors is just another publicity stunt by @elonmusk https://t.co/oy4fvSd88K", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04840986740665776, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04840986740665776, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.037283847214411026, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03671050903059703, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011126020192246733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011699358376060731, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.034477560704677446, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.034477560704677446, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.026926297994925186, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01937635744326749, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00755126270975226, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015101203261409957, "ret_p1w": 0.03882203431010134, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03882203431010134, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.007514308278414816, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.01963063127611786, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03130772603168652, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01919140303398348, "ret_p1m": -0.061400509013808, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08150647070589379, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03408622920006743, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020105961692085783, "ret_p3m": -0.15344778219517563, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15344778219517563, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.152862346912081, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08625857547753502, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0005854352830946263, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06718920671764061, "ret_p6m": -0.1457647015487249, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1457647015487249, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2508597300601656, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11460455895883437, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1050950285114407, "bench_c_p6m": -0.031160142589890527, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08150647070589379, "price_path": [-0.0882, -0.0707, -0.0886, -0.0524, -0.0939, -0.0575, -0.0515, -0.0482, -0.0167, -0.0669, -0.0801, -0.03, -0.0731, -0.0611, -0.0679, -0.1151, -0.0671, -0.0814, -0.0687, -0.0824, -0.0598, -0.0424, -0.0528, -0.0605, -0.0391, -0.0718, -0.0318, -0.0144, -0.0123, -0.0581, -0.0229, 0.0024, -0.0492, -0.0111, -0.0457, -0.0808, -0.0471, -0.0592, -0.0785, -0.1397, -0.1346, -0.1249, -0.1413, -0.1354, -0.1542, -0.163, -0.1059, -0.1024, -0.0871, -0.0871, -0.0794, -0.0794, -0.0814, -0.0439, -0.0272, -0.0262, -0.0592, -0.0473, -0.0338, -0.0436, -0.0178, 0.0172, 0.0484, 0.0, 0.0345, 0.0298, 0.0459, 0.0392, 0.0388, 0.0388, 0.017, -0.0163, -0.0275, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0625, -0.0334, -0.0734, -0.0767, -0.0673, -0.0476, -0.0392, -0.0429, -0.0601, -0.0614, -0.0637, -0.0637, -0.1027, -0.0767, -0.0383, -0.039, -0.0686, -0.0778, -0.0766, -0.1085, -0.0789, -0.0973, -0.0969, -0.1311, -0.1499, -0.1202, -0.1069, -0.09, -0.0834, -0.1074, -0.1066, -0.1066, -0.1212, -0.1197, -0.1189, -0.1186, -0.1443, -0.1239, -0.1067, -0.1256, -0.1386, -0.1368, -0.1601, -0.1312, -0.1321, -0.1509, -0.1468, -0.1456, -0.1272, -0.1546, -0.1628, -0.1534, -0.1455, -0.1594, -0.1861, -0.2125, -0.1849, -0.1803, -0.174, -0.2036, -0.2256, -0.2397, -0.2044, -0.1841, -0.2283, -0.2283, -0.2449, -0.2581, -0.2654, -0.2603, -0.2532, -0.2458, -0.2206, -0.1612, -0.1677, -0.1426, -0.16, -0.173, -0.1707, -0.2002, -0.1947, -0.1896, -0.1953, -0.2022, -0.1833, -0.1636, -0.16, -0.1667, -0.1467, -0.1187, -0.0833, -0.0476, -0.0724, -0.0471, -0.0513, -0.0963, -0.1226, -0.1351, -0.107, -0.1057, -0.0883, -0.0883, -0.0721, -0.0576, -0.0538, -0.0674, -0.11, -0.0931, -0.0932, -0.1045, -0.1632, -0.1248, -0.1511, -0.1833, -0.1458]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1977749593212276993", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-13T14:53:42+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is in a bad business. PERIOD.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: dismisses 'buy it now' home-purchase pitch as a gimmick; calls it a fundamentally bad business.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This gimmick  makes zero sense. Buying a house is not an impulse purchase! This is not EBay. $OPEN is in a bad business. PERIOD.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "\" What we really wanna do the next level is we wanna allow this buyer side to buy the home in 30 seconds...Imagine every home you see online having a buy it now button, you're like, I like this house. I want it.\"\n\n$OPEN\nhttps://t.co/aBKZb255AN", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041265500897103236, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.041265500897103236, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.056377735124992556, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04688755234277975, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.01511223422788932, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0056220514456765125, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05089406967397658, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05089406967397658, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0521157159616179, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04136095516105587, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012216462876413203, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009533114512920715, "ret_p1w": 0.013755145102465782, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.013755145102465782, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0012973602120824879, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.024621712508895666, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012457784890383294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03837685761136145, "ret_p1m": 0.16643735412439553, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.16643735412439553, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1363335466756017, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1471265340781942, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.030103807448793818, "bench_c_p1m": 0.019310820046201327, "ret_p3m": -0.1155433500401245, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1155433500401245, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1585383938428545, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1148581122617538, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.042995043802730004, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0006852377783707064, "ret_p6m": -0.37414027473559974, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.37414027473559974, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3740400332836431, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4120145480585502, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.0001002414519566397, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03787427332295046, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.16643735412439553, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1363335466756017, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1471265340781942, "price_path": [-0.795, -0.773, -0.6905, -0.5585, -0.6039, -0.685, -0.6671, -0.6506, -0.6781, -0.718, -0.7153, -0.7469, -0.7111, -0.6616, -0.6534, -0.7387, -0.7455, -0.7318, -0.6823, -0.6602, -0.6671, -0.5818, -0.564, -0.4801, -0.5021, -0.5571, -0.5048, -0.3109, -0.3755, -0.3535, -0.447, -0.4127, -0.3879, -0.3879, -0.2999, -0.2944, -0.1802, -0.0853, -0.1692, -0.1596, -0.1939, 0.447, 0.2476, 0.3061, 0.227, 0.4044, 0.3673, 0.3164, 0.1527, -0.0248, 0.132, 0.2503, 0.2118, 0.1279, 0.0963, 0.1087, 0.1018, 0.1155, 0.2765, 0.2779, 0.1678, 0.1197, 0.0413, 0.0, 0.0509, 0.0151, -0.022, -0.0151, 0.0138, -0.0426, -0.0619, -0.033, 0.0963, 0.1224, 0.0963, 0.0523, 0.0096, 0.0688, 0.044, -0.0481, -0.0055, -0.0977, -0.0977, 0.0963, 0.1664, 0.2889, 0.1774, 0.1169, 0.0784, 0.0344, -0.0798, -0.1527, -0.0715, 0.0578, 0.0646, 0.0702, 0.0702, 0.0591, -0.0179, -0.0385, -0.0454, 0.0426, -0.0165, -0.0303, 0.0193, -0.0371, -0.0303, -0.0977, -0.11, -0.0743, -0.1582, -0.1362, -0.1252, -0.1169, -0.1376, -0.1362, -0.1362, -0.1733, -0.1981, -0.1967, -0.1981, -0.1981, -0.1651, -0.1307, -0.0468, -0.1582, -0.1155, 0.0028, -0.0344, -0.0688, -0.0867, -0.1334, -0.0825, -0.0825, -0.121, -0.1087, -0.1169, -0.1733, -0.1926, -0.2008, -0.2077, -0.2325, -0.2916, -0.337, -0.2944, -0.3122, -0.3535, -0.3287, -0.3205, -0.3549, -0.3453, -0.3975, -0.3886, -0.3886, -0.4044, -0.3631, -0.3604, -0.3122, -0.3425, -0.2971, -0.315, -0.2558, -0.2545, -0.3054, -0.3164, -0.3287, -0.2875, -0.3122, -0.3012, -0.3109, -0.2751, -0.3343, -0.3191, -0.2875, -0.2352, -0.2737, -0.293, -0.3246, -0.2834, -0.2875, -0.2985, -0.326, -0.3398, -0.3906, -0.3563, -0.3714, -0.348, -0.348, -0.3659, -0.3741]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1973097420364886174", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-30T18:47:38+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "That is 28% DILUTION!!! Conversion can start TOMORROW. That is potentially $1.6b of equity supply.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "days", "summary": "Short OPEN: May 2025 convertible bond conversion imminent, adding 207M shares (28% dilution) and ~$1.6B equity supply starting tomorrow.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The $OPEN May 2025 convertible bond is well in the money. As the bonds are converted that will add 207mm shares to the existing 736mm shares outstanding. That is 28% DILUTION!!! Conversion can start TOMORROW. That is potentially $1.6b of equity supply. While in theory the company could satisfy conversion requests with cash, that is most unlikely as they don’t have adequate funds. Regardless of whether the bonds are converted, the share count is now effectively 943mm. Oh, but you knew that already. Wait, did the $OPEN bulls “forget” to mention that?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.028858221471541157, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.028858221471541157, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.032610828398020986, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03289344295276275, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.003752606926479829, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004035221481221596, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011292425570174958, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011292425570174958, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.007884853030736716, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.011292425570174958, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0034075725394382417, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.16562110494480153, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.16562110494480153, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1612077132872618, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.17986276236677756, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004413391657539734, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014241657421976028, "ret_p1m": -0.040150527383705725, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.040150527383705725, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07198884103668401, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.005021167714949204, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03183831365297829, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03512935966875652, "ret_p3m": -0.24592215971221287, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.24592215971221287, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2852056410731504, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.21821839213591332, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03928348136093751, "bench_c_p3m": -0.027703767576299554, "ret_p6m": -0.3601003715321388, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3601003715321388, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35166416529561684, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3328925358271635, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.00843620623652197, "bench_c_p6m": -0.027207835704975314, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 5, "stated_label": "p1w", "ret_signed_stated": -0.16562110494480153, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1612077132872618, "alpha_c_stated": -0.17986276236677756, "price_path": [-0.9235, -0.9235, -0.9215, -0.9082, -0.9075, -0.8892, -0.9023, -0.887, -0.8695, -0.813, -0.793, -0.7177, -0.5972, -0.6386, -0.7127, -0.6964, -0.6813, -0.7064, -0.7428, -0.7403, -0.7691, -0.7365, -0.6913, -0.6838, -0.7616, -0.7679, -0.7553, -0.7102, -0.6901, -0.6964, -0.6186, -0.6023, -0.5257, -0.5458, -0.596, -0.5483, -0.3714, -0.4304, -0.4103, -0.4956, -0.4642, -0.4417, -0.4417, -0.3614, -0.3563, -0.2522, -0.1656, -0.2422, -0.2334, -0.2647, 0.3199, 0.138, 0.1913, 0.1192, 0.2811, 0.2472, 0.2008, 0.0514, -0.1104, 0.0326, 0.1405, 0.1054, 0.0289, 0.0, 0.0113, 0.005, 0.0176, 0.1644, 0.1656, 0.0652, 0.0213, -0.0502, -0.0878, -0.0414, -0.074, -0.1079, -0.1016, -0.0753, -0.1267, -0.1443, -0.1179, 0.0, 0.0238, 0.0, -0.0402, -0.079, -0.0251, -0.0477, -0.1317, -0.0928, -0.1769, -0.1769, 0.0, 0.064, 0.1757, 0.074, 0.0188, -0.0163, -0.0565, -0.1606, -0.2271, -0.1531, -0.0351, -0.0289, -0.0238, -0.0238, -0.0339, -0.1041, -0.123, -0.1292, -0.0489, -0.1029, -0.1154, -0.0703, -0.1217, -0.1154, -0.1769, -0.1882, -0.1556, -0.2321, -0.212, -0.202, -0.1945, -0.2133, -0.212, -0.212, -0.2459, -0.2685, -0.2673, -0.2685, -0.2685, -0.2384, -0.207, -0.1305, -0.2321, -0.1932, -0.0853, -0.1192, -0.1506, -0.1669, -0.2095, -0.1631, -0.1631, -0.1982, -0.187, -0.1945, -0.2459, -0.2635, -0.271, -0.2773, -0.2999, -0.3538, -0.3952, -0.3563, -0.3726, -0.4103, -0.3877, -0.3802, -0.4115, -0.4028, -0.4504, -0.4423, -0.4423, -0.4567, -0.4191, -0.4166, -0.3726, -0.4003, -0.3588, -0.3752, -0.3212, -0.3199, -0.3664, -0.3764, -0.3877, -0.3501, -0.3726, -0.3626, -0.3714, -0.3388, -0.3927, -0.3789, -0.3501, -0.3024, -0.3375, -0.3551, -0.3839, -0.3463, -0.3501, -0.3601]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1990441019519729756", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-17T15:24:54+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I kindly suggest that you pay attention to the fundamentals and valuation, instead of the narrative and share price. In the end fundamentals prevail.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: warrant issuance was a failed short-squeeze gimmick; fundamentals and valuation will ultimately prevail against the narrative.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is indeed endless chatter about $OPEN, signifying NOTHING.\n\nThe gimmick of issuing warrants was nothing more than a transparent, lame attempt to squeeze the shorts. \nMAJOR FAIL!\n\nI kindly suggest that you pay attention to the fundamentals and valuation, instead of the narrative and share price. \n\nIn the end fundamentals prevail. \n\n@dayetweets @m3_melody @APompliano @ericjackson", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.035714250959391514, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.035714250959391514, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.026310292902597565, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.029077095384222318, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.009403958056793948, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006637155575169196, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04081634763179798, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04081634763179798, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.032418794288003094, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.044503645587827156, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008397553343794883, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0036872979560291785, "ret_p1w": -0.01913266485306364, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01913266485306364, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.02372952885677937, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.026015601783334397, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004596864003715728, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0068829369302707555, "ret_p1m": -0.14158164692739283, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.14158164692739283, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1614113143626842, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.13838600795315115, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019829667435291354, "bench_c_p1m": -0.003195638974241688, "ret_p3m": -0.44132652688850627, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.44132652688850627, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4677857443852673, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.5066785665608711, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.026459217496761056, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0653520396723648, "ret_p6m": -0.39923470070440525, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.39923470070440525, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5144767305910936, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5145279136250915, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1152420298866883, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11529321292068628, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.14158164692739283, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1614113143626842, "alpha_c_stated": 0.13838600795315115, "price_path": [-0.5893, -0.5408, -0.361, -0.4209, -0.4005, -0.4872, -0.4554, -0.4324, -0.4324, -0.3508, -0.3457, -0.2398, -0.1518, -0.2296, -0.2207, -0.2526, 0.3418, 0.1569, 0.2111, 0.1378, 0.3023, 0.2679, 0.2207, 0.0689, -0.0957, 0.0497, 0.1594, 0.1237, 0.0459, 0.0166, 0.0281, 0.0217, 0.0344, 0.1837, 0.1849, 0.0829, 0.0383, -0.0344, -0.0727, -0.0255, -0.0587, -0.0931, -0.0867, -0.0599, -0.1122, -0.1301, -0.1033, 0.0166, 0.0408, 0.0166, -0.0242, -0.0638, -0.0089, -0.0319, -0.1173, -0.0778, -0.1633, -0.1633, 0.0166, 0.0816, 0.1952, 0.0918, 0.0357, 0.0, -0.0408, -0.1467, -0.2143, -0.139, -0.0191, -0.0128, -0.0077, -0.0077, -0.0179, -0.0893, -0.1084, -0.1148, -0.0332, -0.088, -0.1008, -0.0548, -0.1071, -0.1008, -0.1633, -0.1747, -0.1416, -0.2194, -0.199, -0.1888, -0.1811, -0.2003, -0.199, -0.199, -0.2334, -0.2564, -0.2551, -0.2564, -0.2564, -0.2258, -0.1939, -0.1161, -0.2194, -0.1798, -0.0702, -0.1046, -0.1365, -0.1531, -0.1964, -0.1492, -0.1492, -0.1849, -0.1735, -0.1811, -0.2334, -0.2513, -0.2589, -0.2653, -0.2883, -0.3431, -0.3852, -0.3457, -0.3622, -0.4005, -0.3776, -0.3699, -0.4018, -0.3929, -0.4413, -0.433, -0.433, -0.4477, -0.4094, -0.4069, -0.3622, -0.3903, -0.3482, -0.3648, -0.3099, -0.3087, -0.3559, -0.3661, -0.3776, -0.3393, -0.3622, -0.352, -0.361, -0.3278, -0.3827, -0.3686, -0.3393, -0.2908, -0.3265, -0.3444, -0.3737, -0.3355, -0.3393, -0.3495, -0.375, -0.3878, -0.4349, -0.4031, -0.4171, -0.3954, -0.3954, -0.412, -0.4196, -0.4082, -0.4503, -0.449, -0.4439, -0.4247, -0.3852, -0.3278, -0.3253, -0.3176, -0.3048, -0.3074, -0.3342, -0.2972, -0.3125, -0.301, -0.2883, -0.3138, -0.3061, -0.3457, -0.3329, -0.3036, -0.3214, -0.361, -0.3814, -0.3992]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1985781390919561389", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-04T18:49:12+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I have yet to see a model with credible unit economics to justify material upside in the share price. Buy the hype, sell the news? I expect any bounce in the share price to be short lived. The fundamentals will prevail in the end.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "weeks", "summary": "Short Opendoor: no credible unit economics, post-Nov 6 catalyst will disappoint, any bounce short-lived; fundamentals will weigh.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The Trapdoor may soon open for Opendoor once Nov 6 passes. So many investors are expecting great things to be announced - I suspect they will be disappointed. I have yet to see a model with credible unit economics to justify material upside in the share price. Buy the hype, sell the news? I expect any bounce in the share price to be short lived. The fundamentals will prevail in the end.\n$OPEN  #trapdoor @dayetweets @m3_melody @Realtor_Stocks @1TradingDee @UnicusResearch", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "You want to bet against a team full of these people?\n\nCouldn't be me.\n\n$OPEN https://t.co/6guuRk57Yr", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.09682081920622876, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.09682081920622876, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.08482498754833756, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09950762706287697, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011995831657891198, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00268680785664821, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04479767909851873, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04479767909851873, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.041332202442364574, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04504180391249557, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003465476656154154, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0002441248139768426, "ret_p1w": 0.22543344635016993, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.22543344635016993, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.2139411587309188, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.2068695335268349, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01149228761925114, "bench_c_p1w": 0.018563912823335027, "ret_p1m": 0.0028901706222559387, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0028901706222559387, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.00992017199913331, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0002851738429265893, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012810342621389248, "bench_c_p1m": 0.003175344465182528, "ret_p3m": -0.2557803412445119, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2557803412445119, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2835849038183118, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.27880890662189284, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02780456257379993, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02302856537738096, "ret_p6m": -0.19364163841245752, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.19364163841245752, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.25346002716631855, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.278484481628557, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05981838875386103, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08484284321609947, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0028901706222559387, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.00992017199913331, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0002851738429265893, "price_path": [-0.7327, -0.7182, -0.6662, -0.6431, -0.6503, -0.5607, -0.5419, -0.4538, -0.4769, -0.5347, -0.4798, -0.276, -0.3439, -0.3208, -0.4191, -0.3829, -0.3569, -0.3569, -0.2645, -0.2587, -0.1387, -0.039, -0.1272, -0.1171, -0.1532, 0.5202, 0.3107, 0.3721, 0.289, 0.4754, 0.4364, 0.3829, 0.211, 0.0246, 0.1893, 0.3136, 0.2731, 0.185, 0.1517, 0.1647, 0.1575, 0.172, 0.341, 0.3425, 0.2269, 0.1763, 0.0939, 0.0506, 0.104, 0.0665, 0.0275, 0.0347, 0.065, 0.0058, -0.0145, 0.0159, 0.1517, 0.1792, 0.1517, 0.1055, 0.0607, 0.1228, 0.0968, 0.0, 0.0448, -0.052, -0.052, 0.1517, 0.2254, 0.354, 0.237, 0.1734, 0.1329, 0.0867, -0.0332, -0.1098, -0.0246, 0.1113, 0.1185, 0.1243, 0.1243, 0.1127, 0.0318, 0.0101, 0.0029, 0.0954, 0.0332, 0.0188, 0.0708, 0.0116, 0.0188, -0.052, -0.065, -0.0275, -0.1156, -0.0925, -0.0809, -0.0723, -0.0939, -0.0925, -0.0925, -0.1315, -0.1575, -0.1561, -0.1575, -0.1575, -0.1228, -0.0867, 0.0014, -0.1156, -0.0708, 0.0535, 0.0145, -0.0217, -0.0405, -0.0896, -0.0361, -0.0361, -0.0766, -0.0636, -0.0723, -0.1315, -0.1517, -0.1604, -0.1676, -0.1936, -0.2558, -0.3035, -0.2587, -0.2775, -0.3208, -0.2948, -0.2861, -0.3223, -0.3121, -0.3671, -0.3577, -0.3577, -0.3743, -0.3309, -0.328, -0.2775, -0.3092, -0.2616, -0.2803, -0.2182, -0.2168, -0.2702, -0.2818, -0.2948, -0.2514, -0.2775, -0.2659, -0.276, -0.2384, -0.3006, -0.2847, -0.2514, -0.1965, -0.237, -0.2572, -0.2905, -0.2471, -0.2514, -0.263, -0.2919, -0.3064, -0.3598, -0.3237, -0.3396, -0.315, -0.315, -0.3338, -0.3425, -0.3295, -0.3772, -0.3757, -0.3699, -0.3483, -0.3035, -0.2384, -0.2355, -0.2269, -0.2124, -0.2153, -0.2457, -0.2038, -0.2211, -0.2081, -0.1936]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1977805090711892059", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-13T18:34:14+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "OPEN is a complete hot air balloon… All this and more for just 20x sales!!! SELL is not a four letter word.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: AI hype masking an asset-heavy, perennial loss-making house flipper trading at 20x sales with no credible path to transformation.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "With each passing day, it becomes increasingly obvious that $OPEN is a complete hot air balloon. Aspiring to become the most aggressive software company (argghhh), a buy it now button, the idea that chanting AI repeatedly is somehow going to materially transform an asset heavy, perennial loss making house flipper…where to stop? All this and more for just 20x sales!!!   SELL is not a four letter word.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041265500897103236, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.041265500897103236, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.056377735124992556, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04688755234277975, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.01511223422788932, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0056220514456765125, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05089406967397658, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05089406967397658, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0521157159616179, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04136095516105587, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012216462876413203, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009533114512920715, "ret_p1w": 0.013755145102465782, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.013755145102465782, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0012973602120824879, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.024621712508895666, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012457784890383294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03837685761136145, "ret_p1m": 0.16643735412439553, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.16643735412439553, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1363335466756017, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1471265340781942, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.030103807448793818, "bench_c_p1m": 0.019310820046201327, "ret_p3m": -0.1155433500401245, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1155433500401245, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1585383938428545, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1148581122617538, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.042995043802730004, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0006852377783707064, "ret_p6m": -0.37414027473559974, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.37414027473559974, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3740400332836431, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4120145480585502, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.0001002414519566397, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03787427332295046, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.16643735412439553, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1363335466756017, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1471265340781942, "price_path": [-0.795, -0.773, -0.6905, -0.5585, -0.6039, -0.685, -0.6671, -0.6506, -0.6781, -0.718, -0.7153, -0.7469, -0.7111, -0.6616, -0.6534, -0.7387, -0.7455, -0.7318, -0.6823, -0.6602, -0.6671, -0.5818, -0.564, -0.4801, -0.5021, -0.5571, -0.5048, -0.3109, -0.3755, -0.3535, -0.447, -0.4127, -0.3879, -0.3879, -0.2999, -0.2944, -0.1802, -0.0853, -0.1692, -0.1596, -0.1939, 0.447, 0.2476, 0.3061, 0.227, 0.4044, 0.3673, 0.3164, 0.1527, -0.0248, 0.132, 0.2503, 0.2118, 0.1279, 0.0963, 0.1087, 0.1018, 0.1155, 0.2765, 0.2779, 0.1678, 0.1197, 0.0413, 0.0, 0.0509, 0.0151, -0.022, -0.0151, 0.0138, -0.0426, -0.0619, -0.033, 0.0963, 0.1224, 0.0963, 0.0523, 0.0096, 0.0688, 0.044, -0.0481, -0.0055, -0.0977, -0.0977, 0.0963, 0.1664, 0.2889, 0.1774, 0.1169, 0.0784, 0.0344, -0.0798, -0.1527, -0.0715, 0.0578, 0.0646, 0.0702, 0.0702, 0.0591, -0.0179, -0.0385, -0.0454, 0.0426, -0.0165, -0.0303, 0.0193, -0.0371, -0.0303, -0.0977, -0.11, -0.0743, -0.1582, -0.1362, -0.1252, -0.1169, -0.1376, -0.1362, -0.1362, -0.1733, -0.1981, -0.1967, -0.1981, -0.1981, -0.1651, -0.1307, -0.0468, -0.1582, -0.1155, 0.0028, -0.0344, -0.0688, -0.0867, -0.1334, -0.0825, -0.0825, -0.121, -0.1087, -0.1169, -0.1733, -0.1926, -0.2008, -0.2077, -0.2325, -0.2916, -0.337, -0.2944, -0.3122, -0.3535, -0.3287, -0.3205, -0.3549, -0.3453, -0.3975, -0.3886, -0.3886, -0.4044, -0.3631, -0.3604, -0.3122, -0.3425, -0.2971, -0.315, -0.2558, -0.2545, -0.3054, -0.3164, -0.3287, -0.2875, -0.3122, -0.3012, -0.3109, -0.2751, -0.3343, -0.3191, -0.2875, -0.2352, -0.2737, -0.293, -0.3246, -0.2834, -0.2875, -0.2985, -0.326, -0.3398, -0.3906, -0.3563, -0.3714, -0.348, -0.348, -0.3659, -0.3741]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1985818229357625850", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-04T21:15:35+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "shows why $TSLA will probably generate losses in 2026", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Endorses bearish TSLA thesis: losses likely in 2026 per detailed breakdown of the numbers.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Run, don’t walk, to read and subscriber to a fantastic substack report on $TSLA from @BradMunchen \nHe does a masterful job of breaking down the numbers and shows why $TSLA will probably generate losses in 2026.\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/IFZlBKhuFI\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/Z0qvMGKDDo https://t.co/qoFnMgXzjn", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03854393766375119, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03854393766375119, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03509042906104165, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.02651372362856519, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.003453508602709543, "bench_c_m1d": -0.012030214035186004, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03497306340156037, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03497306340156037, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.024243790356765382, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.011866789569991765, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.010729273044794985, "bench_c_p1d": -0.023106273831568602, "ret_p1w": -0.06810656550279337, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06810656550279337, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07666640591334895, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05516371541912024, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008559840410555575, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01294285008367313, "ret_p1m": -0.01631789214925461, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01631789214925461, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02636843413503298, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.004204641733435932, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.010050541985778372, "bench_c_p1m": -0.012113250415818677, "ret_p3m": -0.08712967543330707, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.08712967543330707, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.11647650600539561, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10108239818603959, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.029346830572088534, "bench_c_p3m": 0.013952722752732516, "ret_p6m": -0.17408617994321418, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17408617994321418, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24075286477476932, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.15992166347730363, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06666668483155513, "bench_c_p6m": -0.014164516465910548, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2866, -0.2663, -0.2624, -0.2655, -0.2737, -0.2846, -0.2747, -0.2873, -0.299, -0.3072, -0.2642, -0.2499, -0.2389, -0.2434, -0.2512, -0.2774, -0.2774, -0.2872, -0.277, -0.2674, -0.2407, -0.2503, -0.2491, -0.2473, -0.2018, -0.1431, -0.1126, -0.0875, -0.0784, -0.0979, -0.0779, -0.0603, -0.0784, -0.0417, -0.0837, -0.0469, -0.0408, -0.0375, -0.0056, -0.0564, -0.0698, -0.0191, -0.0627, -0.0506, -0.0574, -0.1051, -0.0566, -0.071, -0.0583, -0.0721, -0.0493, -0.0317, -0.0421, -0.05, -0.0283, -0.0614, -0.0209, -0.0033, -0.0012, -0.0475, -0.0119, 0.0136, -0.0385, 0.0, -0.035, -0.0704, -0.0364, -0.0486, -0.0681, -0.13, -0.1249, -0.115, -0.1316, -0.1257, -0.1447, -0.1536, -0.0959, -0.0923, -0.0768, -0.0768, -0.069, -0.0691, -0.071, -0.0332, -0.0163, -0.0153, -0.0487, -0.0366, -0.023, -0.0329, -0.0067, 0.0287, 0.0602, 0.0112, 0.0461, 0.0414, 0.0577, 0.0508, 0.0505, 0.0505, 0.0284, -0.0053, -0.0165, -0.0267, -0.0267, -0.0519, -0.0225, -0.063, -0.0664, -0.0569, -0.0369, -0.0284, -0.0322, -0.0495, -0.0509, -0.0532, -0.0532, -0.0927, -0.0663, -0.0275, -0.0282, -0.0582, -0.0675, -0.0662, -0.0985, -0.0685, -0.0871, -0.0868, -0.1213, -0.1404, -0.1103, -0.0968, -0.0798, -0.0731, -0.0974, -0.0966, -0.0966, -0.1113, -0.1098, -0.109, -0.1087, -0.1347, -0.114, -0.0967, -0.1158, -0.1289, -0.1271, -0.1507, -0.1215, -0.1223, -0.1414, -0.1372, -0.136, -0.1174, -0.1451, -0.1534, -0.1439, -0.1359, -0.15, -0.177, -0.2037, -0.1758, -0.1711, -0.1647, -0.1947, -0.2169, -0.2311, -0.1955, -0.1749, -0.2196, -0.2196, -0.2364, -0.2498, -0.2571, -0.252, -0.2448, -0.2373, -0.2118, -0.1518, -0.1584, -0.133, -0.1506, -0.1637, -0.1614, -0.1912, -0.1856, -0.1805, -0.1862, -0.1932, -0.1741]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2000310177011216608", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-14T21:01:24+00:00", "symbol": "SPOT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$SPOT short", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short SPOT.", "resolved_tickers": ["SPOT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLC", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Content & Information'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Content & Information", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$SPOT short https://t.co/bJmr7Q5gc8", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.035779195192568114, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.035779195192568114, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03426610078296233, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.035950639764986914, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0015130944096057863, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00017144457241879962, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.003326661749872617, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.003326661749872617, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.00605903705225197, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.002640289083790659, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002732375302379353, "bench_c_p1d": 0.000686372666081958, "ret_p1w": 0.002858811936430783, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.002858811936430783, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.006136763503218123, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.001153228808732365, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008995575439648906, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004012040745163148, "ret_p1m": -0.07365504282665891, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07365504282665891, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09582241383212864, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07964648908974836, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.022167371005469727, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0059914462630894505, "ret_p3m": -0.11705800089805163, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11705800089805163, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09839876328355701, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10910722583121735, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.018659237614494617, "bench_c_p3m": -0.007950775066834281, "ret_p6m": -0.14022354633965683, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14022354633965683, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.22912328975457275, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.10271654590642243, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08889974341491591, "bench_c_p6m": -0.037507000433234405, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07365504282665891, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09582241383212864, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07964648908974836, "price_path": [0.2253, 0.272, 0.2734, 0.2796, 0.2457, 0.2278, 0.2347, 0.2415, 0.2622, 0.2094, 0.214, 0.2255, 0.1791, 0.1787, 0.179, 0.1691, 0.1672, 0.1874, 0.1991, 0.1843, 0.1631, 0.1513, 0.1635, 0.1705, 0.1942, 0.1706, 0.1676, 0.1189, 0.1397, 0.1322, 0.1534, 0.1378, 0.1354, 0.116, 0.0909, 0.0742, 0.0711, 0.0689, 0.0793, 0.1082, 0.1225, 0.1181, 0.1015, 0.11, 0.1027, 0.0717, 0.0209, 0.0112, 0.0136, 0.0144, 0.0269, 0.0269, 0.0376, 0.003, -0.0006, -0.0346, -0.028, -0.0212, -0.0083, 0.0217, 0.0559, 0.0376, 0.0358, 0.0, 0.0033, -0.0189, -0.0231, 0.0087, 0.0029, 0.0039, 0.0163, 0.0163, 0.0125, 0.007, -0.0008, 0.0062, 0.0062, -0.0037, 0.0281, -0.0099, -0.013, -0.0407, -0.0655, -0.0817, -0.0737, -0.0836, -0.1197, -0.1259, -0.1259, -0.114, -0.1299, -0.136, -0.1108, -0.1118, -0.1134, -0.1186, -0.1269, -0.1331, -0.1188, -0.1787, -0.2367, -0.2848, -0.2678, -0.2812, -0.1752, -0.1559, -0.2276, -0.2059, -0.2059, -0.1981, -0.1725, -0.1592, -0.15, -0.1894, -0.1932, -0.1973, -0.1412, -0.1078, -0.1211, -0.0991, -0.0746, -0.0434, -0.0207, -0.0559, -0.0812, -0.1088, -0.1171, -0.1058, -0.0921, -0.09, -0.1047, -0.164, -0.1778, -0.1469, -0.1599, -0.1801, -0.1715, -0.1814, -0.177, -0.1598, -0.1856, -0.1528, -0.1528, -0.1606, -0.1628, -0.1628, -0.1569, -0.1753, -0.1266, -0.114, -0.0797, -0.0792, -0.0702, -0.07, -0.0948, -0.094, -0.1061, -0.1025, -0.1409, -0.2477, -0.2314, -0.2263, -0.235, -0.2406, -0.2731, -0.2632, -0.2594, -0.276, -0.2732, -0.2502, -0.2534, -0.2506, -0.2429, -0.229, -0.2349, -0.2492, -0.1511, -0.0993, -0.0993, -0.0822, -0.1114, -0.1047, -0.1377, -0.1202, -0.1311, -0.1553, -0.1448, -0.139, -0.1283, -0.1402]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1977756593065165238", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-13T15:21:31+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN should not even exist. The business model is not broken. Instead it NEVER worked. $OPEN has lost money EVERY year since inception. They are in a low margin business and can't scale. Book value is 86 cents per share. $1.50 price target would be generous.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: model never worked, loses money every year, low-margin unscalable business; PT $1.50 vs book value $0.86.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN should not even exist. \nThe business model is not broken. Instead it NEVER worked. $OPEN has lost money EVERY year since inception. They are in a low margin business and can’t scale. Book value is 86 cents per share. $1.50 price target would be generous. #bagjob #memestock #hotairbubble #garbage", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Day 0 @opendoor. Let’s roll. https://t.co/9VfngGuWET", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041265500897103236, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.041265500897103236, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.056377735124992556, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04688755234277975, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.01511223422788932, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0056220514456765125, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05089406967397658, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05089406967397658, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0521157159616179, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04136095516105587, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012216462876413203, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009533114512920715, "ret_p1w": 0.013755145102465782, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.013755145102465782, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0012973602120824879, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.024621712508895666, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012457784890383294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03837685761136145, "ret_p1m": 0.16643735412439553, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.16643735412439553, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1363335466756017, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1471265340781942, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.030103807448793818, "bench_c_p1m": 0.019310820046201327, "ret_p3m": -0.1155433500401245, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1155433500401245, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1585383938428545, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1148581122617538, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.042995043802730004, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0006852377783707064, "ret_p6m": -0.37414027473559974, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.37414027473559974, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3740400332836431, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4120145480585502, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.0001002414519566397, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03787427332295046, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.16643735412439553, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1363335466756017, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1471265340781942, "price_path": [-0.795, -0.773, -0.6905, -0.5585, -0.6039, -0.685, -0.6671, -0.6506, -0.6781, -0.718, -0.7153, -0.7469, -0.7111, -0.6616, -0.6534, -0.7387, -0.7455, -0.7318, -0.6823, -0.6602, -0.6671, -0.5818, -0.564, -0.4801, -0.5021, -0.5571, -0.5048, -0.3109, -0.3755, -0.3535, -0.447, -0.4127, -0.3879, -0.3879, -0.2999, -0.2944, -0.1802, -0.0853, -0.1692, -0.1596, -0.1939, 0.447, 0.2476, 0.3061, 0.227, 0.4044, 0.3673, 0.3164, 0.1527, -0.0248, 0.132, 0.2503, 0.2118, 0.1279, 0.0963, 0.1087, 0.1018, 0.1155, 0.2765, 0.2779, 0.1678, 0.1197, 0.0413, 0.0, 0.0509, 0.0151, -0.022, -0.0151, 0.0138, -0.0426, -0.0619, -0.033, 0.0963, 0.1224, 0.0963, 0.0523, 0.0096, 0.0688, 0.044, -0.0481, -0.0055, -0.0977, -0.0977, 0.0963, 0.1664, 0.2889, 0.1774, 0.1169, 0.0784, 0.0344, -0.0798, -0.1527, -0.0715, 0.0578, 0.0646, 0.0702, 0.0702, 0.0591, -0.0179, -0.0385, -0.0454, 0.0426, -0.0165, -0.0303, 0.0193, -0.0371, -0.0303, -0.0977, -0.11, -0.0743, -0.1582, -0.1362, -0.1252, -0.1169, -0.1376, -0.1362, -0.1362, -0.1733, -0.1981, -0.1967, -0.1981, -0.1981, -0.1651, -0.1307, -0.0468, -0.1582, -0.1155, 0.0028, -0.0344, -0.0688, -0.0867, -0.1334, -0.0825, -0.0825, -0.121, -0.1087, -0.1169, -0.1733, -0.1926, -0.2008, -0.2077, -0.2325, -0.2916, -0.337, -0.2944, -0.3122, -0.3535, -0.3287, -0.3205, -0.3549, -0.3453, -0.3975, -0.3886, -0.3886, -0.4044, -0.3631, -0.3604, -0.3122, -0.3425, -0.2971, -0.315, -0.2558, -0.2545, -0.3054, -0.3164, -0.3287, -0.2875, -0.3122, -0.3012, -0.3109, -0.2751, -0.3343, -0.3191, -0.2875, -0.2352, -0.2737, -0.293, -0.3246, -0.2834, -0.2875, -0.2985, -0.326, -0.3398, -0.3906, -0.3563, -0.3714, -0.348, -0.348, -0.3659, -0.3741]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1976302838167765503", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-09T15:04:49+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "No amount of hand waiving, comparisons to $CVNA, chanting AI and claiming $OPEN is a software company is going to change this. The company has yet to outline a way forward to prosperity. Book value per share is 86 cents. $OPEN sports an enterprise value of $10B for $400mm gross profits", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: never profitable, 8% gross margin, $10B EV on $400M gross profit, insider incentives misaligned — pure meme speculation with no fundamental basis.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN is in the business of flipping houses, which is a ruthlessly competitive industry with very low margins.\nThe company has NEVER made a profit. The business is very asset heavy and does not scale as it has a mere 8% gross margin.\nNo amount of hand waiving, comparisons to $CVNA, chanting AI and claiming $OPEN is a software company is going to change this. \nThe company has yet to outline a way forward to prosperity. \nBook value per share is 86 cents.\n$OPEN sports an enterprise value of $10B  for $400mm gross profits (essentially revenue)!\n@nejatian is not exactly leaving money on the table. It is not the case that $OPEN stock has to rise significantly for him to score big. \nIf $OPEN is above $6.24 in five years\nhe stands to receive 40.9mm shares!\n\nGood luck to all those who wish to speculate in a meme stock.\nBut please don’t fool yourself by pretending this has anything to do with fundamentals. \n@dayetweets @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @Realtor_Stocks @iv2171", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.042997470888624045, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.042997470888624045, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.040092079317743945, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.038377955557336696, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0029053915708801004, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004619515331287349, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07002458815974721, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07002458815974721, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.04299672598090154, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05908372100297299, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.027027862178845674, "bench_c_p1d": -0.010940867156774225, "ret_p1w": -0.12653564697368336, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.12653564697368336, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.11086133177766755, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.14209602946174482, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01567431519601581, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015560382488061464, "ret_p1m": -0.1941032351232378, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1941032351232378, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.19382008644019555, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1975070985482169, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0002831486830422447, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0034038634249791144, "ret_p3m": -0.14864870564491983, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.14864870564491983, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.18246214165510544, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.14900882121707137, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.033813436010185605, "bench_c_p3m": 0.00036011557215154255, "ret_p6m": -0.4176904703687896, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4176904703687896, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4004133575757598, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4472914562208752, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.017277112793029792, "bench_c_p6m": 0.029600985852085593, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1941032351232378, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.19382008644019555, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1975070985482169, "price_path": [-0.8893, -0.8722, -0.817, -0.7973, -0.7236, -0.6057, -0.6462, -0.7187, -0.7027, -0.688, -0.7125, -0.7482, -0.7457, -0.774, -0.742, -0.6978, -0.6904, -0.7666, -0.7727, -0.7604, -0.7162, -0.6966, -0.7027, -0.6265, -0.6106, -0.5356, -0.5553, -0.6044, -0.5577, -0.3845, -0.4423, -0.4226, -0.5061, -0.4754, -0.4533, -0.4533, -0.3747, -0.3698, -0.2678, -0.183, -0.258, -0.2494, -0.2801, 0.2924, 0.1143, 0.1665, 0.0958, 0.2543, 0.2211, 0.1757, 0.0295, -0.129, 0.0111, 0.1167, 0.0823, 0.0074, -0.0209, -0.0098, -0.016, -0.0037, 0.14, 0.1413, 0.043, 0.0, -0.07, -0.1069, -0.0614, -0.0934, -0.1265, -0.1204, -0.0946, -0.145, -0.1622, -0.1364, -0.0209, 0.0025, -0.0209, -0.0602, -0.0983, -0.0455, -0.0676, -0.1499, -0.1118, -0.1941, -0.1941, -0.0209, 0.0418, 0.1511, 0.0516, -0.0025, -0.0369, -0.0762, -0.1781, -0.2432, -0.1708, -0.0553, -0.0491, -0.0442, -0.0442, -0.0541, -0.1229, -0.1413, -0.1474, -0.0688, -0.1216, -0.1339, -0.0897, -0.14, -0.1339, -0.1941, -0.2052, -0.1732, -0.2482, -0.2285, -0.2187, -0.2113, -0.2297, -0.2285, -0.2285, -0.2617, -0.2838, -0.2826, -0.2838, -0.2838, -0.2543, -0.2236, -0.1486, -0.2482, -0.2101, -0.1044, -0.1376, -0.1683, -0.1843, -0.226, -0.1806, -0.1806, -0.215, -0.2039, -0.2113, -0.2617, -0.2789, -0.2862, -0.2924, -0.3145, -0.3673, -0.4079, -0.3698, -0.3857, -0.4226, -0.4005, -0.3931, -0.4238, -0.4152, -0.4619, -0.4539, -0.4539, -0.4681, -0.4312, -0.4287, -0.3857, -0.4128, -0.3722, -0.3882, -0.3354, -0.3342, -0.3796, -0.3894, -0.4005, -0.3636, -0.3857, -0.3759, -0.3845, -0.3526, -0.4054, -0.3919, -0.3636, -0.317, -0.3514, -0.3686, -0.3968, -0.36, -0.3636, -0.3735, -0.398, -0.4103, -0.4558, -0.4251, -0.4386, -0.4177, -0.4177]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2001408109651132451", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-17T21:44:12+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "First target for $BETR is 10", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Price target of 10 set for BETR, implying upside from current levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@tvmetguy @ericjackson @cvpayne @natbrunell @WallStreetMav @WallStreetApes @wallstreetbets @dayetweets @DougKass First target for $BETR is 10.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @ericjackson @cvpayne @natbrunell @WallStreetMav @WallStreetApes @wallstreetbets @dayetweets @DougKass https://t.co/FYiWumnhMX", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "tvmetguy", "ret_m1d": -0.009067715684966782, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009067715684966782, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0015730471859728423, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0015730471859728423, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.06574099276385781, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06574099276385781, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0748044989874449, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0748044989874449, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "ret_p1w": 0.04845562595948438, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04845562595948438, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.024877209454856608, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.024877209454856608, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "ret_p1m": -0.03882127262794266, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03882127262794266, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.06429739600035878, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.06429739600035878, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "bench_c_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "ret_p3m": -0.11533016425573628, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.11533016425573628, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.10986374957348932, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.10986374957348932, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "bench_c_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "ret_p6m": -0.24879570583355726, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.24879570583355726, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.3515402484707366, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.3515402484707366, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03882127262794266, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.06429739600035878, "alpha_c_stated": -0.06429739600035878, "price_path": [0.4163, 0.9198, 0.8988, 0.586, 0.5024, 0.6659, 0.5908, 0.6104, 0.6206, 0.7059, 0.638, 0.7115, 0.7631, 0.69, 0.6121, 0.4398, 0.4146, 0.6965, 0.6325, 0.7951, 1.3063, 1.1221, 0.8682, 1.4389, 1.2533, 1.2244, 1.1527, 1.2074, 1.0473, 1.0745, 1.0669, 0.8388, 0.7348, 0.7166, 0.6248, 0.8722, 0.798, 0.6764, 0.6268, 0.5939, 0.4914, 0.5463, 0.3769, 0.2539, 0.2766, 0.295, 0.2893, 0.3358, 0.3358, 0.3721, 0.2785, 0.2389, 0.2576, 0.4154, 0.2876, 0.3219, 0.3485, 0.4347, 0.376, 0.1836, 0.1227, 0.1017, -0.0091, 0.0, -0.0657, 0.036, 0.0179, 0.0485, 0.0485, -0.0102, -0.0332, -0.0657, -0.0768, -0.0768, -0.0156, 0.0286, -0.0077, -0.0428, 0.0609, 0.1298, 0.0859, 0.1006, 0.0691, 0.0394, -0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0969, -0.0745, -0.0898, -0.1119, -0.1947, -0.1318, -0.0966, -0.1065, -0.1411, -0.2386, -0.2111, -0.2199, -0.2839, -0.244, -0.2091, -0.1901, -0.1751, -0.1731, -0.1114, -0.1114, -0.1148, -0.0961, -0.1029, -0.1848, -0.2329, -0.195, -0.1235, -0.0581, -0.0677, -0.0082, -0.0674, -0.1097, -0.0536, -0.0986, 0.0113, 0.083, 0.1315, 0.0388, -0.0238, -0.1867, -0.1153, -0.1933, -0.1785, -0.2261, -0.1785, -0.1899, -0.1097, -0.0615, -0.1312, -0.0538, 0.0094, -0.0181, 0.0657, 0.0657, 0.1437, 0.2706, -0.0081, -0.0864, -0.072, -0.006, -0.0153, 0.0839, 0.0578, 0.1683, 0.3454, 0.3191, 0.3004, 0.1649, 0.2054, 0.1522, 0.1952, 0.1085, 0.1655, 0.2576, 0.178, 0.2023, 0.2097, -0.1352, -0.1479, -0.1201, -0.1391, -0.1782, -0.1754, -0.2349, -0.2902, -0.2842, -0.3103, -0.2907, -0.2743, -0.2743, -0.2499, -0.2375, -0.1984, -0.1734, -0.178, -0.1969, -0.2516, -0.2176, -0.274, -0.2788, -0.2905, -0.3276, -0.3171, -0.2488]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2002867004794191908", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-21T22:21:20+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "No matter how you slice it, $OPEN is wildly overvalued", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "OPEN wildly overvalued vs peers on every metric (net revenue, transaction volume, EV/sales, book); COMP also implicitly overvalued by same cross-check.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "My calculation has zero errors.\n\nYou fail to grasp the difference in accounting between $OPEN and other companies. \nReal estate brokers such as Compass  (an imperfect comparison to $OPEN but close enough) record only their commissions as revenues, (estimated $7b for 2025 on $267b transaction volume with an EV of $6.2b) whereas $OPEN records their transaction volume (estimated $4.9b for 2025 and $350mm in net revenues and EV of about $7b)\nTo make a like for like comparison I use net revenues. You could alternatively use gross transaction volume, but on that basis if $OPEN is $6.36, then that would imply a price of for $COMP of $678; last sale was $10.58. Clearly that is ridiculous. $OPEN is valued at 1.4x gross transaction volume while by the same measure $COMP is valued at .022x gross transaction volume.\n\nHere is another way to think about it. \nImagine two ticket resellers. They each charge a 5% commission. Broker A books only his commission as revenues while broker B books the entire value of the ticket. In economic terms the transactions are identical, but broker B revenue will be 21x that of broker A. To blindly compare the stated revenue recorded on the income statement would be analytical malpractice. That is basically what @ericjackson does and why I have been so critical of him. \n\nFinally, we can compare $OPEN to $OPAD, which is a publicly traded Ibuyer. OPAD is valued at EV to sales of .3 and 1.2x book. Applying those metrics to $OPEN would imply a share price of 16 cents and $1.35 per share, respectively. \n\nNo matter how you slice it, $OPEN is wildly overvalued. I hope that helps.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009345785368615966, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009345785368615966, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0031545516895949977, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.001980866791325475, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007364918577290491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023364500558389678, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023364500558389678, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027934992905720324, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.023115809487931793, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00024869107045788486, "ret_p1w": -0.09190033420193955, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09190033420193955, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09631017702703448, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10284842842346764, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010948094221528093, "ret_p1m": -0.004672929821157856, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.034780164832387994, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030107235011230138, "ret_p3m": -0.19937697735157223, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19937697735157223, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16282773267312123, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2424225098912084, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04304553253963617, "ret_p6m": -0.26012461938442555, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.26012461938442555, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35876109648465593, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3898369657490104, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12971234636458484, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_stated": 0.034780164832387994, "price_path": [0.2819, 0.4159, 0.3723, 0.2773, 0.2414, 0.2555, 0.2477, 0.2632, 0.4455, 0.447, 0.3224, 0.2679, 0.1791, 0.1324, 0.19, 0.1495, 0.1075, 0.1153, 0.148, 0.0841, 0.0623, 0.095, 0.2414, 0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2001329101936742495", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-17T16:30:15+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Doubled my $TSLA short yesterday at $485. Average is now $465.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author holds and recently doubled TSLA short position, average entry $465.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@abetterfuture42 Doubled my $TSLA short yesterday at $485. Average is now $465. https://t.co/JY0wlnFyAI", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 So how deep is your short? https://t.co/l7Hwm5EVwW", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "abetterfuture42", "ret_m1d": 0.04840986740665776, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04840986740665776, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.037283847214411026, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03671050903059703, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011126020192246733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011699358376060731, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.034477560704677446, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.034477560704677446, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.026926297994925186, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01937635744326749, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00755126270975226, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015101203261409957, "ret_p1w": 0.03882203431010134, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03882203431010134, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.007514308278414816, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.01963063127611786, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03130772603168652, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01919140303398348, "ret_p1m": -0.061400509013808, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08150647070589379, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03408622920006743, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020105961692085783, "ret_p3m": -0.15344778219517563, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15344778219517563, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.152862346912081, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08625857547753502, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0005854352830946263, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06718920671764061, "ret_p6m": -0.1457647015487249, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1457647015487249, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2508597300601656, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11460455895883437, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1050950285114407, "bench_c_p6m": -0.031160142589890527, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08150647070589379, "price_path": [-0.0882, -0.0707, -0.0886, -0.0524, -0.0939, -0.0575, -0.0515, -0.0482, -0.0167, -0.0669, -0.0801, -0.03, -0.0731, -0.0611, -0.0679, -0.1151, -0.0671, -0.0814, -0.0687, -0.0824, -0.0598, -0.0424, -0.0528, -0.0605, -0.0391, -0.0718, -0.0318, -0.0144, -0.0123, -0.0581, -0.0229, 0.0024, -0.0492, -0.0111, -0.0457, -0.0808, -0.0471, -0.0592, -0.0785, -0.1397, -0.1346, -0.1249, -0.1413, -0.1354, -0.1542, -0.163, -0.1059, -0.1024, -0.0871, -0.0871, -0.0794, -0.0794, -0.0814, -0.0439, -0.0272, -0.0262, -0.0592, -0.0473, -0.0338, -0.0436, -0.0178, 0.0172, 0.0484, 0.0, 0.0345, 0.0298, 0.0459, 0.0392, 0.0388, 0.0388, 0.017, -0.0163, -0.0275, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0625, -0.0334, -0.0734, -0.0767, -0.0673, -0.0476, -0.0392, -0.0429, -0.0601, -0.0614, -0.0637, -0.0637, -0.1027, -0.0767, -0.0383, -0.039, -0.0686, -0.0778, -0.0766, -0.1085, -0.0789, -0.0973, -0.0969, -0.1311, -0.1499, -0.1202, -0.1069, -0.09, -0.0834, -0.1074, -0.1066, -0.1066, -0.1212, -0.1197, -0.1189, -0.1186, -0.1443, -0.1239, -0.1067, -0.1256, -0.1386, -0.1368, -0.1601, -0.1312, -0.1321, -0.1509, -0.1468, -0.1456, -0.1272, -0.1546, -0.1628, -0.1534, -0.1455, -0.1594, -0.1861, -0.2125, -0.1849, -0.1803, -0.174, -0.2036, -0.2256, -0.2397, -0.2044, -0.1841, -0.2283, -0.2283, -0.2449, -0.2581, -0.2654, -0.2603, -0.2532, -0.2458, -0.2206, -0.1612, -0.1677, -0.1426, -0.16, -0.173, -0.1707, -0.2002, -0.1947, -0.1896, -0.1953, -0.2022, -0.1833, -0.1636, -0.16, -0.1667, -0.1467, -0.1187, -0.0833, -0.0476, -0.0724, -0.0471, -0.0513, -0.0963, -0.1226, -0.1351, -0.107, -0.1057, -0.0883, -0.0883, -0.0721, -0.0576, -0.0538, -0.0674, -0.11, -0.0931, -0.0932, -0.1045, -0.1632, -0.1248, -0.1511, -0.1833, -0.1458]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1968654404409598104", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-18T12:32:40+00:00", "symbol": "GC=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold is an investment, not a trade. You can't own enough gold.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisively bullish on gold as a long-term hold; can't own enough.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@MarioNawfal Gold is an investment, not a trade. You can’t own enough gold.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "https://t.co/Xf0BG0JDK9", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "MarioNawfal", "ret_m1d": 0.004022424537144298, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.004022424537144298, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.00867310017523193, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.00867310017523193, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004650675638087631, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004650675638087631, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010607227252210416, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010607227252210416, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.00565435880131715, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.00565435880131715, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004952868450893266, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004952868450893266, "ret_p1w": 0.02720339972481267, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02720339972481267, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.030805579054022925, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.030805579054022925, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0036021793292102533, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0036021793292102533, "ret_p1m": 0.1590191165414696, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1590191165414696, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.15302147910593944, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.15302147910593944, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.005997637435530168, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005997637435530168, "ret_p3m": 0.17957815508043762, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17957815508043762, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.151655371447603, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.151655371447603, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.027922783632834625, "bench_c_p3m": 0.027922783632834625, "ret_p6m": 0.3731005394269802, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3731005394269802, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.36731945952982814, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.36731945952982814, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.005781079897152042, "bench_c_p6m": 0.005781079897152042, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1590191165414696, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.15302147910593944, "alpha_c_stated": 0.15302147910593944, "price_path": [-0.0731, -0.0877, -0.0849, -0.0859, -0.1025, -0.0917, -0.0836, -0.0786, -0.0849, -0.0849, -0.0842, -0.0937, -0.0897, -0.0877, -0.0789, -0.0823, -0.0861, -0.0815, -0.0835, -0.0811, -0.067, -0.0582, -0.0698, -0.0755, -0.0841, -0.09, -0.0875, -0.1033, -0.0973, -0.079, -0.0736, -0.0729, -0.0748, -0.067, -0.0672, -0.0807, -0.0815, -0.0787, -0.0845, -0.084, -0.0854, -0.0904, -0.0812, -0.0844, -0.0746, -0.0768, -0.0701, -0.0683, -0.0613, -0.0523, -0.0523, -0.0299, -0.0223, -0.0266, -0.0136, -0.0024, -0.0046, -0.0011, -0.0026, -0.0006, 0.0098, 0.0118, 0.004, 0.0, 0.0106, 0.0281, 0.0323, 0.0229, 0.0272, 0.0331, 0.0502, 0.0591, 0.0608, 0.0571, 0.0656, 0.0857, 0.0913, 0.1093, 0.0888, 0.0998, 0.1265, 0.1346, 0.1543, 0.1812, 0.159, 0.2012, 0.124, 0.1241, 0.1286, 0.1248, 0.0935, 0.0857, 0.0816, 0.1028, 0.0968, 0.0988, 0.0796, 0.092, 0.0907, 0.0974, 0.1274, 0.1318, 0.1501, 0.1408, 0.1202, 0.1074, 0.1154, 0.1172, 0.1169, 0.1152, 0.1328, 0.1325, 0.1415, 0.1415, 0.1557, 0.1613, 0.1538, 0.1527, 0.1535, 0.1514, 0.1484, 0.1543, 0.1592, 0.1717, 0.1782, 0.1793, 0.1796, 0.1897, 0.1876, 0.1889, 0.2163, 0.2325, 0.2274, 0.2274, 0.2417, 0.1877, 0.1885, 0.1808, 0.1808, 0.1867, 0.2179, 0.2311, 0.2193, 0.2261, 0.2349, 0.2581, 0.2563, 0.2691, 0.2613, 0.2553, 0.2553, 0.3028, 0.3217, 0.3461, 0.3646, 0.3846, 0.4186, 0.4736, 0.4776, 0.3258, 0.2727, 0.3536, 0.3526, 0.3166, 0.3571, 0.3915, 0.3777, 0.3933, 0.3449, 0.3784, 0.3784, 0.3354, 0.3655, 0.3693, 0.3963, 0.434, 0.4141, 0.4106, 0.4227, 0.4414, 0.46, 0.3949, 0.4058, 0.3889, 0.4109, 0.4079, 0.4238, 0.419, 0.3911, 0.3731]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1989044981114253455", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-13T18:57:32+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Look for a further decline in 2026, making for a third consecutive year of declining sales", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: forecasts a third consecutive year of declining sales in 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "SPOT ON. @BradMunchen nails it. \nThe fourth decline in sales for $TSLA will be stunning. Look for a further decline in 2026, making for a third consecutive year of declining sales.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.07117096585529392, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07117096585529392, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05429705540413221, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04556751172725604, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01687391045116171, "bench_c_m1d": 0.025603454128037884, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005870832424868633, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.005870832424868633, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006034656798180937, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010655352367051063, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0001638243733123046, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00478451994218243, "ret_p1w": -0.016816287500356797, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.016816287500356797, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.012214691789367071, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.029907879155392614, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02903097928972387, "bench_c_p1w": -0.04672416665574941, "ret_p1m": 0.14171994976165325, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.14171994976165325, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12725651945509653, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10120278333126165, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.014463430306556724, "bench_c_p1m": 0.040517166430391605, "ret_p3m": 0.057762635351106706, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.057762635351106706, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02484034643615618, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03565487408324852, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.032922288914950526, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022107761267858184, "ret_p6m": 0.06557381156125741, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.06557381156125741, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.03825924838042338, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.025227747694347435, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1038330599416808, "bench_c_p6m": 0.040346063866909976, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1662, -0.1808, -0.1943, -0.2037, -0.1542, -0.1378, -0.1252, -0.1303, -0.1393, -0.1695, -0.1695, -0.1807, -0.1689, -0.1579, -0.1272, -0.1383, -0.1369, -0.1348, -0.0825, -0.0151, 0.02, 0.0488, 0.0594, 0.037, 0.0599, 0.0802, 0.0594, 0.1015, 0.0532, 0.0955, 0.1025, 0.1063, 0.143, 0.0846, 0.0693, 0.1275, 0.0774, 0.0913, 0.0835, 0.0286, 0.0844, 0.0678, 0.0825, 0.0666, 0.0928, 0.113, 0.101, 0.092, 0.1169, 0.0789, 0.1255, 0.1457, 0.1481, 0.0948, 0.1357, 0.1651, 0.1052, 0.1495, 0.1093, 0.0685, 0.1076, 0.0936, 0.0712, 0.0, 0.0059, 0.0172, -0.0018, 0.005, -0.0168, -0.0271, 0.0393, 0.0433, 0.0612, 0.0612, 0.0701, 0.07, 0.0678, 0.1113, 0.1307, 0.1319, 0.0935, 0.1074, 0.123, 0.1117, 0.1417, 0.1824, 0.2186, 0.1624, 0.2024, 0.197, 0.2158, 0.2079, 0.2075, 0.2075, 0.1821, 0.1434, 0.1305, 0.1187, 0.1187, 0.0898, 0.1236, 0.077, 0.0732, 0.0841, 0.107, 0.1168, 0.1125, 0.0926, 0.091, 0.0883, 0.0883, 0.0429, 0.0733, 0.1178, 0.1171, 0.0826, 0.0719, 0.0733, 0.0362, 0.0707, 0.0493, 0.0497, 0.01, -0.0119, 0.0227, 0.0381, 0.0578, 0.0654, 0.0375, 0.0384, 0.0384, 0.0215, 0.0232, 0.0242, 0.0245, -0.0054, 0.0184, 0.0383, 0.0164, 0.0013, 0.0033, -0.0238, 0.0098, 0.0089, -0.0131, -0.0082, -0.0068, 0.0145, -0.0174, -0.0268, -0.016, -0.0068, -0.0229, -0.054, -0.0847, -0.0526, -0.0472, -0.0399, -0.0743, -0.0999, -0.1162, -0.0752, -0.0516, -0.103, -0.103, -0.1223, -0.1377, -0.1461, -0.1402, -0.1319, -0.1233, -0.094, -0.025, -0.0326, -0.0034, -0.0236, -0.0387, -0.036, -0.0703, -0.0639, -0.058, -0.0646, -0.0726, -0.0506, -0.0278, -0.0236, -0.0314, -0.0081, 0.0244, 0.0656]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1980992256401449017", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-22T13:38:53+00:00", "symbol": "OKLO", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I shudder to think how much $OKLO could fall if people start to look at valuation", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OKLO on valuation concerns; expects significant downside if investors scrutinize it.", "resolved_tickers": ["OKLO"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Utilities - Independent Power Producers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I shudder to think how much  $OKLO could fall if people start to look at valuation. https://t.co/zLgEjgqDpF", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.16083915462093157, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.16083915462093157, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.15561297593613976, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.15561297593613976, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005226178684791805, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005226178684791805, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.038128488985490705, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.038128488985490705, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.032198433578467966, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.032198433578467966, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0059300554070227385, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0059300554070227385, "ret_p1w": 0.19397265142858378, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.19397265142858378, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1646374509204802, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.1646374509204802, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.029335200508103565, "bench_c_p1w": 0.029335200508103565, "ret_p1m": -0.2673992841504159, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2673992841504159, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.24453333552770307, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.24453333552770307, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02286594862271285, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02286594862271285, "ret_p3m": -0.20954050302047666, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20954050302047666, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.24833030320353244, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.24833030320353244, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03878980018305578, "bench_c_p3m": 0.03878980018305578, "ret_p6m": -0.46545123529561583, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.46545123529561583, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5221378245548883, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5221378245548883, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0566865892592725, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0566865892592725, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2673992841504159, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.24453333552770307, "alpha_c_stated": 0.24453333552770307, "price_path": [-0.3715, -0.3715, -0.4088, -0.3704, -0.3624, -0.4048, -0.3639, -0.3, -0.3082, -0.3397, -0.373, -0.4018, -0.3467, -0.3555, -0.3868, -0.4084, -0.4257, -0.4555, -0.4458, -0.4406, -0.4141, -0.4073, -0.3814, -0.3906, -0.3516, -0.3869, -0.3869, -0.3874, -0.3987, -0.4205, -0.419, -0.4113, -0.3842, -0.386, -0.3342, -0.3114, -0.2035, -0.2022, -0.2067, -0.1261, 0.1258, 0.168, 0.1876, 0.092, -0.0082, -0.0798, -0.0301, -0.0707, -0.0349, 0.0723, 0.0603, 0.1535, 0.1166, 0.122, 0.1499, 0.2251, 0.4237, 0.4497, 0.4282, 0.3498, 0.3602, 0.3241, 0.1608, 0.0, 0.0381, 0.1326, 0.1441, 0.1012, 0.194, 0.1438, 0.1053, 0.0545, -0.0657, 0.0092, -0.1113, -0.0622, -0.0716, -0.1324, -0.0745, -0.1538, -0.1877, -0.2061, -0.1956, -0.1437, -0.2674, -0.266, -0.2545, -0.286, -0.2614, -0.2614, -0.2393, -0.2727, -0.2354, -0.1959, -0.0705, -0.1286, -0.1291, -0.1348, -0.1625, -0.1425, -0.2722, -0.3146, -0.3048, -0.3678, -0.353, -0.3071, -0.3054, -0.3183, -0.3231, -0.3231, -0.3596, -0.3832, -0.4038, -0.4026, -0.4026, -0.3523, -0.2562, -0.2041, -0.1875, -0.1875, -0.1233, -0.1467, -0.1917, -0.201, -0.2387, -0.2095, -0.2095, -0.2513, -0.2443, -0.243, -0.2705, -0.3148, -0.2901, -0.2142, -0.2837, -0.3372, -0.3871, -0.3506, -0.432, -0.4827, -0.4081, -0.3752, -0.4217, -0.4486, -0.4679, -0.4531, -0.4531, -0.4369, -0.439, -0.4369, -0.4686, -0.4748, -0.4584, -0.4479, -0.425, -0.4759, -0.4615, -0.473, -0.4535, -0.4836, -0.5151, -0.4857, -0.489, -0.4775, -0.5039, -0.5141, -0.5031, -0.4961, -0.528, -0.5447, -0.5507, -0.5316, -0.5425, -0.5399, -0.5687, -0.5818, -0.6205, -0.5872, -0.5998, -0.5993, -0.5993, -0.5941, -0.6121, -0.582, -0.6025, -0.5817, -0.5509, -0.5123, -0.4726, -0.4655]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1973472654737940840", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-01T19:38:40+00:00", "symbol": "mining stocks", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I totally agree. You can't own enough.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bullish thesis on mining stocks: P/E contracting as earnings outpace share prices; can't own enough.", "resolved_tickers": ["XME", "PICK"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XME US metals/mining; PICK global diversified miners", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@TaviCosta has been on fire. \nI totally agree. You can’t own enough.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "For those who think mining stocks are expensive:\n\nDespite their strong recent performance, P/E ratios have actually contracted — a sign that earnings are growing faster than share prices.\n\nInitially, these stocks were priced based on very conservative earnings estimates. \n\nAnd https://t.co/NFEZkS3d5l", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.015796507432111306, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.015796507432111306, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.012400507010453754, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012400507010453754, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0033960004216575523, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0033960004216575523, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.00824774991014654, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.00824774991014654, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.007095925113460577, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007095925113460577, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.001151824796685963, "bench_c_p1d": 0.001151824796685963, "ret_p1w": 0.05076007271675942, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05076007271675942, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.043788729318577024, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.043788729318577024, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006971343398182395, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006971343398182395, "ret_p1m": 0.024523009241224525, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.024523009241224525, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.007498447689119558, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.007498447689119558, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.017024561552104966, "bench_c_p1m": 0.017024561552104966, "ret_p3m": 0.1316517485558104, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1316517485558104, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09958874297529241, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09958874297529241, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.032063005580518, "bench_c_p3m": 0.032063005580518, "ret_p6m": 0.15738855495695847, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.15738855495695847, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.18684004569591328, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.18684004569591328, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.02945149073895481, "bench_c_p6m": -0.02945149073895481, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.024523009241224525, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.007498447689119558, "alpha_c_stated": 0.007498447689119558, "price_path": [-0.1973, -0.2099, -0.2084, -0.2118, -0.1823, -0.1761, -0.1819, -0.1911, -0.1866, -0.1735, -0.1697, -0.1536, -0.1325, -0.1282, -0.1417, -0.1443, -0.1594, -0.1666, -0.1846, -0.1886, -0.1958, -0.1848, -0.1741, -0.1747, -0.1558, -0.1422, -0.1455, -0.1252, -0.1184, -0.1303, -0.1341, -0.1408, -0.1495, -0.1536, -0.1473, -0.1232, -0.1209, -0.1195, -0.1211, -0.1157, -0.1122, -0.1122, -0.1185, -0.1128, -0.1134, -0.0948, -0.0928, -0.1008, -0.0914, -0.0775, -0.0801, -0.0543, -0.0601, -0.0666, -0.0623, -0.0526, -0.0444, -0.041, -0.0459, -0.0346, -0.0301, -0.0141, -0.0158, 0.0, 0.0082, 0.0176, 0.0216, 0.0208, 0.0508, 0.0505, 0.0223, 0.0815, 0.0844, 0.0825, 0.0717, 0.0427, 0.0785, 0.0296, 0.0125, 0.0272, 0.0356, 0.0262, 0.0328, 0.0391, 0.0245, 0.0251, 0.0072, -0.0309, -0.0199, -0.0185, -0.0041, 0.0137, 0.0072, 0.0282, 0.0004, -0.0041, -0.0208, -0.0209, -0.0153, -0.0452, -0.0349, -0.0125, 0.0004, 0.0229, 0.0229, 0.0369, 0.0342, 0.0389, 0.0688, 0.0752, 0.0704, 0.0594, 0.0641, 0.0802, 0.1111, 0.0895, 0.0828, 0.0809, 0.0863, 0.0955, 0.1161, 0.1402, 0.1495, 0.1494, 0.1494, 0.1584, 0.1317, 0.1335, 0.1247, 0.1247, 0.1568, 0.1909, 0.2278, 0.2142, 0.2083, 0.2295, 0.2615, 0.2584, 0.2902, 0.2951, 0.2876, 0.2876, 0.3007, 0.3292, 0.3409, 0.3599, 0.3364, 0.3633, 0.3696, 0.3663, 0.2829, 0.2825, 0.3441, 0.3199, 0.2567, 0.3137, 0.349, 0.3362, 0.3554, 0.299, 0.3045, 0.3045, 0.2789, 0.3006, 0.2965, 0.3117, 0.3197, 0.3378, 0.356, 0.3556, 0.3544, 0.3689, 0.3006, 0.3103, 0.2576, 0.2272, 0.2445, 0.2639, 0.2682, 0.2399, 0.1986, 0.2192, 0.2216, 0.1865, 0.1607, 0.1204, 0.1547, 0.1727, 0.1926, 0.1574]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1971237382432456874", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-25T15:36:30+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold is an investment, not a trade.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Gold is a long-term investment, not a short-term trade; bullish holding stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "John Roque has had the golden touch. \nGold is an investment, not a trade. \n@daChartLife https://t.co/bscqCUiIMx", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.004147912039974666, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004147912039974666, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0087827623359934, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0087827623359934, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004634850296018733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004634850296018733, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.00577227044053652, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.00577227044053652, "alpha_spy_p1d": 4.332987790900411e-05, "alpha_c_p1d": 4.332987790900411e-05, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005728940562627516, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005728940562627516, "ret_p1w": 0.029122577360179536, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.029122577360179536, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01214832659083731, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.01214832659083731, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016974250769342225, "bench_c_p1w": 0.016974250769342225, "ret_p1m": 0.0950543553696066, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0950543553696066, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06587724330031053, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06587724330031053, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.029177112069296074, "bench_c_p1m": 0.029177112069296074, "ret_p3m": 0.19982600333121825, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19982600333121825, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1512843632787797, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1512843632787797, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04854164005243855, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04854164005243855, "ret_p6m": 0.1990718053163525, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1990718053163525, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.20786605032112293, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.20786605032112293, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.00879424500477044, "bench_c_p6m": -0.00879424500477044, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1158, -0.1079, -0.103, -0.1091, -0.1091, -0.1084, -0.1177, -0.1138, -0.1118, -0.1033, -0.1066, -0.1103, -0.1058, -0.1078, -0.1055, -0.0917, -0.0831, -0.0945, -0.1, -0.1083, -0.1141, -0.1117, -0.127, -0.1212, -0.1034, -0.0982, -0.0974, -0.0993, -0.0917, -0.092, -0.105, -0.1058, -0.1031, -0.1088, -0.1083, -0.1096, -0.1145, -0.1056, -0.1087, -0.0991, -0.1013, -0.0948, -0.0929, -0.0862, -0.0774, -0.0774, -0.0556, -0.0482, -0.0524, -0.0397, -0.0288, -0.031, -0.0275, -0.029, -0.0271, -0.0169, -0.015, -0.0226, -0.0265, -0.0162, 0.0009, 0.005, -0.0041, 0.0, 0.0058, 0.0224, 0.0311, 0.0327, 0.0291, 0.0374, 0.0569, 0.0624, 0.0799, 0.06, 0.0707, 0.0967, 0.1045, 0.1237, 0.15, 0.1283, 0.1694, 0.0942, 0.0944, 0.0987, 0.0951, 0.0646, 0.0569, 0.0529, 0.0736, 0.0678, 0.0697, 0.051, 0.0631, 0.0618, 0.0683, 0.0975, 0.1019, 0.1196, 0.1106, 0.0905, 0.078, 0.0859, 0.0876, 0.0873, 0.0856, 0.1028, 0.1025, 0.1113, 0.1113, 0.1251, 0.1305, 0.1232, 0.1222, 0.1229, 0.1209, 0.118, 0.1237, 0.1285, 0.1407, 0.147, 0.1481, 0.1483, 0.1582, 0.1561, 0.1574, 0.1841, 0.1998, 0.1949, 0.1949, 0.2088, 0.1562, 0.157, 0.1496, 0.1496, 0.1553, 0.1857, 0.1985, 0.187, 0.1936, 0.2022, 0.2247, 0.223, 0.2355, 0.2279, 0.222, 0.222, 0.2683, 0.2867, 0.3105, 0.3285, 0.3479, 0.381, 0.4345, 0.4384, 0.2906, 0.239, 0.3177, 0.3168, 0.2817, 0.3211, 0.3547, 0.3413, 0.3564, 0.3093, 0.3419, 0.3419, 0.3001, 0.3293, 0.333, 0.3593, 0.396, 0.3767, 0.3732, 0.385, 0.4032, 0.4213, 0.3579, 0.3685, 0.3521, 0.3735, 0.3706, 0.3861, 0.3814, 0.3543, 0.3367, 0.3355, 0.3322, 0.29, 0.2369, 0.1991]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989416653063684429", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-14T19:34:26+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Your ignorant response reaffirms my conviction that $TSLA is going much lower", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Reaffirms high conviction that TSLA will go much lower.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Av8r07 @SawyerMerritt You epitomize everything that is wrong with $TSLA cultists. You are rude, financially illiterate and incapable of civil discourse. You worship at the alter of narrative and price.  Your ignorant response reaffirms my conviction that $TSLA is going much lower. BLOCKED.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @SawyerMerritt Well deserved", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Av8r07", "ret_m1d": -0.0058365669185533875, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0058365669185533875, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0060004181346884344, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01064408854382437, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004807521625270983, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011302107716671506, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011302107716671506, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020618455232186972, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.020700482738195358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009398375021523853, "ret_p1w": -0.03279339573505624, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03279339573505624, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013595052235132021, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009448939789045818, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023344455946010423, "ret_p1m": 0.175491505833963, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12104994010517256, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05444156572879044, "ret_p3m": 0.05915662804276711, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03708219761959586, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022074430423171254, "ret_p6m": 0.10053170095928676, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10053170095928676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.005996684684012932, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.062402347566690386, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03812935339259638, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12104994010517256, "price_path": [-0.1856, -0.199, -0.2083, -0.1591, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1354, -0.1444, -0.1743, -0.1743, -0.1855, -0.1738, -0.1628, -0.1323, -0.1433, -0.1419, -0.1399, -0.0879, -0.0208, 0.0141, 0.0427, 0.0532, 0.0309, 0.0537, 0.0738, 0.0532, 0.0951, 0.0471, 0.0892, 0.0961, 0.0998, 0.1363, 0.0783, 0.063, 0.1209, 0.0711, 0.0849, 0.0771, 0.0226, 0.078, 0.0616, 0.0762, 0.0603, 0.0865, 0.1065, 0.0946, 0.0856, 0.1104, 0.0726, 0.1189, 0.139, 0.1414, 0.0884, 0.1291, 0.1583, 0.0987, 0.1427, 0.1028, 0.0622, 0.1011, 0.0872, 0.0649, -0.0058, 0.0, 0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0009, -0.0226, -0.0328, 0.0332, 0.0372, 0.055, 0.055, 0.0639, 0.0638, 0.0616, 0.1048, 0.1241, 0.1253, 0.0871, 0.101, 0.1165, 0.1052, 0.1351, 0.1755, 0.2115, 0.1556, 0.1954, 0.1901, 0.2087, 0.2008, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.1752, 0.1367, 0.1239, 0.1122, 0.1122, 0.0834, 0.117, 0.0708, 0.0669, 0.0778, 0.1006, 0.1103, 0.106, 0.0862, 0.0846, 0.082, 0.082, 0.0368, 0.067, 0.1113, 0.1106, 0.0763, 0.0657, 0.067, 0.0302, 0.0644, 0.0432, 0.0436, 0.0041, -0.0177, 0.0167, 0.0321, 0.0516, 0.0592, 0.0315, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0155, 0.0172, 0.0182, 0.0185, -0.0112, 0.0124, 0.0323, 0.0105, -0.0046, -0.0025, -0.0295, 0.0039, 0.003, -0.0188, -0.014, -0.0126, 0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0325, -0.0217, -0.0126, -0.0286, -0.0595, -0.09, -0.0581, -0.0527, -0.0455, -0.0797, -0.1052, -0.1214, -0.0806, -0.0571, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1274, -0.1427, -0.1511, -0.1452, -0.137, -0.1284, -0.0993, -0.0307, -0.0382, -0.0092, -0.0293, -0.0443, -0.0416, -0.0758, -0.0694, -0.0635, -0.0701, -0.078, -0.0562, -0.0335, -0.0293, -0.037, -0.0139, 0.0184, 0.0594, 0.1005]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1971277657376686250", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-25T18:16:32+00:00", "symbol": "IONQ", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "READ ENTIRE THREAD. @IONQ", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish on IonQ; directing readers to a full thread on the stock.", "resolved_tickers": ["IONQ"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Computer Hardware'", "bench_c_industry": "Computer Hardware", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TRUTH @MartinShkreli @StockSavvyShay @doomerzoomer \nREAD ENTIRE THREAD. \n@IONQ", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.06380527561146421, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.06380527561146421, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.059170425315445474, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.06204268848226269, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004634850296018733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0017625871292015205, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.030966462860848254, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.030966462860848254, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03669540342347577, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03398797781952945, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005728940562627516, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003021514958681193, "ret_p1w": 0.002448482906497018, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.002448482906497018, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.014525767862845207, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.026903943485955706, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016974250769342225, "bench_c_p1w": 0.029352426392452724, "ret_p1m": -0.13149936667124895, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13149936667124895, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.16067647874054503, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.18754242965158507, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.029177112069296074, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05604306298033612, "ret_p3m": -0.25983005669355475, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.25983005669355475, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.3083716967459933, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.31142262299087853, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04854164005243855, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05159256629732378, "ret_p6m": -0.5506265213048891, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.5506265213048891, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.5418322763001187, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.5254121464937613, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.00879424500477044, "bench_c_p6m": -0.02521437481112776, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13149936667124895, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.16067647874054503, "alpha_c_stated": -0.18754242965158507, "price_path": [-0.3811, -0.4224, -0.3555, -0.3607, -0.3607, -0.349, -0.3523, -0.3438, -0.3385, -0.3978, -0.3892, -0.4027, -0.3729, -0.3542, -0.3301, -0.3601, -0.3959, -0.3766, -0.3677, -0.3782, -0.3902, -0.4162, -0.4256, -0.4258, -0.451, -0.4259, -0.3948, -0.4062, -0.4168, -0.3972, -0.3527, -0.3807, -0.4065, -0.409, -0.4206, -0.4206, -0.47, -0.4701, -0.4646, -0.427, -0.4429, -0.4131, -0.4034, -0.3764, -0.3844, -0.3844, -0.3808, -0.4099, -0.3935, -0.398, -0.4093, -0.3663, -0.3683, -0.3223, -0.199, -0.1486, -0.1033, -0.0575, -0.0377, 0.0141, 0.0362, 0.0822, 0.0638, 0.0, -0.031, -0.0745, -0.1142, -0.0913, 0.0024, 0.0555, 0.1377, 0.1411, 0.0701, 0.1162, 0.0176, 0.1823, 0.117, 0.0429, -0.0553, -0.0935, -0.1367, -0.143, -0.2014, -0.1449, -0.1315, -0.0955, -0.1769, -0.1198, -0.1334, -0.1015, -0.1589, -0.2312, -0.2019, -0.1728, -0.1463, -0.2025, -0.2162, -0.2696, -0.3461, -0.3205, -0.3117, -0.2925, -0.3104, -0.4095, -0.3993, -0.3265, -0.3222, -0.3245, -0.3245, -0.2899, -0.3213, -0.3241, -0.2993, -0.2113, -0.2411, -0.2171, -0.2159, -0.2558, -0.2431, -0.2748, -0.3365, -0.2846, -0.3396, -0.3311, -0.3017, -0.2243, -0.2598, -0.2824, -0.2824, -0.3375, -0.3483, -0.3474, -0.3537, -0.3537, -0.3264, -0.2984, -0.2689, -0.283, -0.2734, -0.2878, -0.2662, -0.2951, -0.2672, -0.315, -0.2683, -0.2683, -0.2703, -0.3039, -0.2895, -0.3195, -0.3753, -0.3448, -0.3403, -0.3772, -0.4242, -0.4446, -0.4459, -0.491, -0.5617, -0.496, -0.489, -0.4932, -0.5159, -0.5492, -0.5087, -0.5087, -0.5221, -0.5198, -0.5185, -0.5405, -0.5567, -0.5446, -0.5162, -0.4112, -0.4474, -0.4478, -0.4664, -0.4652, -0.4812, -0.4854, -0.4834, -0.4942, -0.5064, -0.5243, -0.525, -0.5205, -0.5202, -0.5336, -0.5405, -0.5506]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1967719969636094286", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-15T22:39:33+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "TRUTH. All $OPEN shareholders take note.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bearish thesis on Opendoor: sellers get only 70-80% of fair value, growth targets require 35x current volume; implicitly warns shareholders.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TRUTH. All $OPEN shareholders take note.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@MollySOShea @rabois @nejatian @ericjackson It’s a meme. Thats the best thesis. Fact : sellers get 70 to 80 % of fair market value using open door. To get 10 % of the US residential housing market their sales would have to be 35x what they are currently. \nSeller pays 5% and then add costs of repair plus title fees .", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.06446186147388877, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.06446186147388877, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.06308307809453995, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05851663068432944, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0013787833793488247, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00594523078955933, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.14461882856720698, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.14461882856720698, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.14586109874067976, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.14509443952270074, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012422701734727815, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00047561095549375487, "ret_p1w": -0.20515694036477827, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.20515694036477827, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.21280663551021906, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.21159129591756443, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0076496951454407824, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006434355552786153, "ret_p1m": -0.1726457341570855, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1726457341570855, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.18327328723454195, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17668382883031786, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.010627553077456442, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004038094673232351, "ret_p3m": -0.264574003736436, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.264574003736436, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.30040769175476545, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.24105491060302697, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.035833688018329424, "bench_c_p3m": -0.023519093133409052, "ret_p6m": -0.409192832303643, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.409192832303643, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.43981283788385406, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4365585745007329, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.03062000558021105, "bench_c_p6m": 0.02736574219708987, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1726457341570855, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.18327328723454195, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17668382883031786, "price_path": [-0.935, -0.94, -0.9406, -0.9383, -0.9426, -0.9397, -0.9374, -0.9402, -0.9367, -0.9365, -0.9316, -0.9316, -0.9298, -0.9179, -0.9174, -0.901, -0.9127, -0.899, -0.8834, -0.833, -0.815, -0.7478, -0.6401, -0.6771, -0.7433, -0.7287, -0.7152, -0.7377, -0.7702, -0.7679, -0.7937, -0.7646, -0.7242, -0.7175, -0.787, -0.7926, -0.7814, -0.741, -0.7231, -0.7287, -0.6592, -0.6446, -0.5762, -0.5942, -0.639, -0.5964, -0.4383, -0.491, -0.4731, -0.5493, -0.5213, -0.5011, -0.5011, -0.4294, -0.4249, -0.3318, -0.2545, -0.3229, -0.315, -0.343, 0.1794, 0.0168, 0.0645, 0.0, 0.1446, 0.1143, 0.0729, -0.0605, -0.2052, -0.0774, 0.0191, -0.0123, -0.0807, -0.1065, -0.0964, -0.102, -0.0908, 0.0404, 0.0415, -0.0482, -0.0874, -0.1513, -0.185, -0.1435, -0.1726, -0.2029, -0.1973, -0.1738, -0.2197, -0.2354, -0.2119, -0.1065, -0.0852, -0.1065, -0.1424, -0.1771, -0.1289, -0.1491, -0.2242, -0.1895, -0.2646, -0.2646, -0.1065, -0.0493, 0.0504, -0.0404, -0.0897, -0.1211, -0.157, -0.25, -0.3094, -0.2433, -0.1379, -0.1323, -0.1278, -0.1278, -0.1368, -0.1996, -0.2164, -0.222, -0.1502, -0.1984, -0.2096, -0.1693, -0.2152, -0.2096, -0.2646, -0.2747, -0.2455, -0.3139, -0.296, -0.287, -0.2803, -0.2971, -0.296, -0.296, -0.3262, -0.3464, -0.3453, -0.3464, -0.3464, -0.3195, -0.2915, -0.2231, -0.3139, -0.2791, -0.1827, -0.213, -0.241, -0.2556, -0.2937, -0.2522, -0.2522, -0.2836, -0.2735, -0.2803, -0.3262, -0.3419, -0.3487, -0.3543, -0.3744, -0.4226, -0.4596, -0.4249, -0.4395, -0.4731, -0.4529, -0.4462, -0.4742, -0.4664, -0.509, -0.5017, -0.5017, -0.5146, -0.4809, -0.4787, -0.4395, -0.4641, -0.4271, -0.4417, -0.3935, -0.3924, -0.4339, -0.4428, -0.4529, -0.4193, -0.4395, -0.4305, -0.4383, -0.4092]}
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{"unit_id": "quote:1986487811340460191", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T17:36:16+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "THIS", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Endorses bearish TSLA view: collapsing sales/margins/EPS, negative FCF, no Optimus/FSD demand in 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THIS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$TSLA is about to go through several quarters of collapsing results (sales + margins + non-GAAP EPS), and (likely) negative free-cash-flow. And, no... NO ONE is buying Optimus robots or FSD in 2026. Things are about to get (very) ugly for $TSLA.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.036240504876303925, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.036240504876303925, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.025394866010775452, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012587702925987543, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010845638865528473, "bench_c_m1d": 0.023652801950316382, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03675632866235745, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03675632866235745, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0377408018411326, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03832746762892436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0015711389665669095, "ret_p1w": -0.09849524134249965, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09849524134249965, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1010760979617803, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08367505243818374, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002580856619280647, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014820188904315912, "ret_p1m": 0.020385271160632268, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.020385271160632268, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0025592061312080805, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0035268320656520746, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02294447729184035, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016858439094980193, "ret_p3m": -0.05371041692345502, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05371041692345502, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08542325152314723, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0833062738046435, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03171283459969221, "bench_c_p3m": 0.029595856881188487, "ret_p6m": -0.12354510077247638, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12354510077247638, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2047662037349851, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13508586382075838, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08122110296250873, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011540763048281999, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.05371041692345502, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08542325152314723, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0833062738046435, "price_path": [-0.2397, -0.2356, -0.2389, -0.2474, -0.2587, -0.2484, -0.2615, -0.2736, -0.2821, -0.2375, -0.2227, -0.2113, -0.216, -0.2241, -0.2513, -0.2513, -0.2614, -0.2508, -0.2408, -0.2132, -0.2232, -0.2219, -0.22, -0.1729, -0.1121, -0.0804, -0.0545, -0.045, -0.0652, -0.0445, -0.0262, -0.045, -0.007, -0.0505, -0.0124, -0.0061, -0.0027, 0.0304, -0.0222, -0.0361, 0.0165, -0.0288, -0.0162, -0.0233, -0.0727, -0.0224, -0.0374, -0.0241, -0.0385, -0.0148, 0.0034, -0.0074, -0.0156, 0.0069, -0.0273, 0.0146, 0.0328, 0.035, -0.013, 0.0239, 0.0504, -0.0037, 0.0362, 0.0, -0.0368, -0.0015, -0.0141, -0.0343, -0.0985, -0.0932, -0.083, -0.1002, -0.094, -0.1137, -0.1229, -0.0631, -0.0595, -0.0433, -0.0433, -0.0353, -0.0354, -0.0374, 0.0019, 0.0193, 0.0204, -0.0142, -0.0017, 0.0124, 0.0022, 0.0293, 0.0659, 0.0986, 0.0479, 0.084, 0.0791, 0.096, 0.0889, 0.0886, 0.0886, 0.0657, 0.0308, 0.0191, 0.0085, 0.0085, -0.0176, 0.0129, -0.029, -0.0325, -0.0227, -0.002, 0.0068, 0.0029, -0.015, -0.0165, -0.0189, -0.0189, -0.0598, -0.0325, 0.0077, 0.0071, -0.024, -0.0337, -0.0324, -0.0658, -0.0348, -0.054, -0.0537, -0.0895, -0.1092, -0.078, -0.0641, -0.0464, -0.0396, -0.0647, -0.0638, -0.0638, -0.0791, -0.0776, -0.0767, -0.0765, -0.1033, -0.0819, -0.0639, -0.0837, -0.0973, -0.0955, -0.1199, -0.0896, -0.0905, -0.1103, -0.1059, -0.1047, -0.0854, -0.1141, -0.1227, -0.1129, -0.1046, -0.1191, -0.1471, -0.1748, -0.1459, -0.141, -0.1345, -0.1655, -0.1886, -0.2032, -0.1663, -0.145, -0.1913, -0.1913, -0.2088, -0.2226, -0.2302, -0.2249, -0.2174, -0.2097, -0.1832, -0.121, -0.1279, -0.1016, -0.1198, -0.1334, -0.131, -0.1619, -0.1561, -0.1508, -0.1567, -0.164, -0.1442, -0.1235]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2003972790039593075", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-24T23:35:19+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The future looks bleak for $TSLA . Case closed.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA; rejects parent's bullish 'future' thesis, sees bleak outlook.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@todd_mcartor The future looks bleak for $TSLA . \nCase closed.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Tsla about the future, not the past...case closed", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "todd_mcartor", "ret_m1d": 0.021486124292644515, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.021486124292644515, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021384704342229277, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01706180290772985, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010141995041523799, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0044243213849146645, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03272372674735757, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03272372674735757, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.029160073239862805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.022891622510734844, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0035636535074947684, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00983210423662273, "ret_p1w": -0.07811611129542784, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07811611129542784, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06777287631722473, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.047800582087406784, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010343234978203109, "bench_c_p1w": -0.030315529208021053, "ret_p1m": -0.08415579037630527, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0863679196883711, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.003505699250114569, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0022121293120658247, "ret_p3m": -0.1877985432687609, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1877985432687609, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.14188259400824654, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09687216461676584, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.045915949260514344, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09092637865199504, "ret_p6m": -0.14760414631636987, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14760414631636987, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23167639643130056, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.09312144798931499, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08407225011493069, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05448269832705488, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0863679196883711, "price_path": [-0.0641, -0.0331, -0.0825, -0.0955, -0.0462, -0.0886, -0.0768, -0.0834, -0.1298, -0.0827, -0.0967, -0.0843, -0.0977, -0.0755, -0.0584, -0.0686, -0.0762, -0.0552, -0.0873, -0.0479, -0.0308, -0.0288, -0.0738, -0.0392, -0.0144, -0.0651, -0.0276, -0.0616, -0.0961, -0.063, -0.0749, -0.0938, -0.154, -0.1491, -0.1395, -0.1556, -0.1498, -0.1683, -0.177, -0.1208, -0.1174, -0.1023, -0.1023, -0.0947, -0.0948, -0.0967, -0.0599, -0.0435, -0.0425, -0.0749, -0.0632, -0.05, -0.0596, -0.0342, 0.0003, 0.0309, -0.0167, 0.0172, 0.0126, 0.0285, 0.0218, 0.0215, 0.0215, 0.0, -0.0327, -0.0437, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0781, -0.0495, -0.0889, -0.0921, -0.0829, -0.0635, -0.0552, -0.0589, -0.0757, -0.0771, -0.0793, -0.0793, -0.1177, -0.0921, -0.0544, -0.055, -0.0842, -0.0932, -0.092, -0.1234, -0.0942, -0.1123, -0.112, -0.1456, -0.1641, -0.1349, -0.1218, -0.1052, -0.0987, -0.1223, -0.1215, -0.1215, -0.1359, -0.1344, -0.1336, -0.1334, -0.1586, -0.1385, -0.1216, -0.1402, -0.1529, -0.1512, -0.1742, -0.1457, -0.1466, -0.1651, -0.161, -0.1598, -0.1418, -0.1687, -0.1768, -0.1676, -0.1598, -0.1734, -0.1997, -0.2257, -0.1985, -0.1939, -0.1878, -0.2169, -0.2386, -0.2523, -0.2177, -0.1977, -0.2412, -0.2412, -0.2575, -0.2705, -0.2777, -0.2727, -0.2657, -0.2584, -0.2336, -0.1752, -0.1816, -0.1569, -0.174, -0.1868, -0.1845, -0.2135, -0.2081, -0.2031, -0.2087, -0.2155, -0.1969, -0.1776, -0.174, -0.1806, -0.1609, -0.1334, -0.0986, -0.0635, -0.0878, -0.063, -0.0671, -0.1114, -0.1372, -0.1496, -0.1219, -0.1207, -0.1035, -0.1035, -0.0875, -0.0733, -0.0696, -0.0829, -0.1248, -0.1083, -0.1084, -0.1194, -0.1772, -0.1394, -0.1652, -0.197, -0.16, -0.1447, -0.1348, -0.1484, -0.1658, -0.1572, -0.1572, -0.1476]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1987281265993912548", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-08T22:09:10+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I share that view and remain short $MSTR", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author remains short MSTR, expecting it to fall to parity (1x NAV) with BTC.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This headline is technically correct but very misleading. \n@RealJimChanos was short $MSTR vs long $BTC, betting that the MNAV would collapse. The trade was very profitable as the MNAV crashed from 2.5 to 1.23. Bravo Jim!!!\nAs an aside, I am reliably informed that Jim ultimately expected the $MSTR to fall to parity. I share that view and remain short $MSTR.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "🇺🇸 LEGENDARY TRADER JIM CHANOS JUST CLOSED ALL HIS $MSTR MICROSTRATEGY SHORT POSITION.\n\nHERE WE GO 🚀 https://t.co/diTilEYoac", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.012767865583664051, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.012767865583664051, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.028132391861789507, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.028132391861789507, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.015364526278125457, "bench_c_m1d": -0.015364526278125457, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.031522097393588355, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.031522097393588355, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03381145524812679, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03381145524812679, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002289357854538432, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002289357854538432, "ret_p1w": -0.1819323753580271, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.1819323753580271, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.158790263762714, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.158790263762714, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.023142111595313097, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023142111595313097, "ret_p1m": -0.2088496247901661, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2088496247901661, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.2111976841281542, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2111976841281542, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0023480593379880954, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0023480593379880954, "ret_p3m": -0.5521182364499043, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.5521182364499043, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.5494508410419497, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.5494508410419497, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.002667395407954576, "bench_c_p3m": -0.002667395407954576, "ret_p6m": -0.21759883591691986, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.21759883591691986, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.28576507562813025, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.28576507562813025, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06816623971121039, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06816623971121039, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2088496247901661, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.2111976841281542, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2111976841281542, "price_path": [0.6322, 0.5612, 0.5335, 0.5221, 0.409, 0.4416, 0.4132, 0.4992, 0.4367, 0.4709, 0.4319, 0.4185, 0.3999, 0.3999, 0.4301, 0.3825, 0.3714, 0.406, 0.381, 0.3753, 0.3666, 0.3648, 0.3875, 0.3722, 0.4028, 0.3802, 0.4615, 0.4432, 0.4063, 0.3722, 0.3534, 0.2588, 0.2938, 0.3665, 0.3488, 0.4167, 0.4749, 0.472, 0.5057, 0.3747, 0.3848, 0.3408, 0.2759, 0.3206, 0.2587, 0.2423, 0.1882, 0.2135, 0.2417, 0.2639, 0.1755, 0.1927, 0.2101, 0.2376, 0.1916, 0.1527, 0.0657, 0.1282, 0.108, 0.034, 0.0675, -0.007, 0.0128, 0.0, -0.0315, -0.0597, -0.127, -0.1638, -0.1819, -0.1343, -0.2193, -0.2585, -0.2863, -0.2505, -0.2792, -0.2647, -0.2647, -0.2583, -0.2824, -0.2409, -0.2114, -0.2213, -0.2507, -0.231, -0.2088, -0.2271, -0.2327, -0.2613, -0.3215, -0.2988, -0.3286, -0.3376, -0.31, -0.3121, -0.3391, -0.3356, -0.3356, -0.3352, -0.3495, -0.3486, -0.3639, -0.3639, -0.3421, -0.3104, -0.3387, -0.3225, -0.301, -0.3414, -0.3209, -0.2758, -0.2493, -0.2845, -0.2728, -0.2728, -0.3292, -0.3143, -0.3261, -0.3172, -0.3278, -0.3236, -0.3367, -0.4006, -0.3733, -0.4155, -0.4421, -0.4596, -0.5521, -0.4352, -0.4205, -0.4432, -0.4722, -0.4851, -0.4396, -0.4396, -0.4614, -0.4759, -0.4581, -0.4514, -0.4821, -0.4784, -0.4321, -0.4416, -0.4579, -0.4238, -0.4446, -0.387, -0.4147, -0.441, -0.4183, -0.4204, -0.4209, -0.4251, -0.4153, -0.3825, -0.3709, -0.4116, -0.4213, -0.4321, -0.4215, -0.4296, -0.4176, -0.4435, -0.4724, -0.4916, -0.4776, -0.486, -0.4984, -0.4984, -0.4655, -0.4821, -0.4629, -0.4606, -0.4615, -0.4459, -0.4248, -0.3991, -0.3765, -0.3029, -0.285, -0.3136, -0.2492, -0.278, -0.2841, -0.2917, -0.3063, -0.3378, -0.3074, -0.2583, -0.2306, -0.2176]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1976694364018520452", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-10T17:00:36+00:00", "symbol": "CVNA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SELL is not a four letter word", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses selling CVNA; bearish stance on the stock.", "resolved_tickers": ["CVNA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto & Truck Dealerships'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto & Truck Dealerships", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "SELL is not a four letter word", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$CVNA eventually this will matter. Why it has been ignored since the bottom I don't know. https://t.co/X2MJpEztRF", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.09351836306802053, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.09351836306802053, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.06573970309593635, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.06523420908861688, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.027778659972084174, "bench_c_m1d": 0.028284153979403648, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.027457153884059116, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.027457153884059116, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.012113035748890777, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.005118301678864734, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015344118135168339, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02233885220519438, "ret_p1w": 0.013880474285842048, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.013880474285842048, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.003530994217104011, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.010906368356084606, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01741146850294606, "bench_c_p1w": 0.024786842641926654, "ret_p1m": -0.02113956840067155, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02113956840067155, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06466041770970599, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06577352035040407, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04352084930903444, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04463395194973252, "ret_p3m": 0.3691531833152992, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.3691531833152992, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.3100467721166065, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.3100091169978425, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.059106411198692754, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05914406631745672, "ret_p6m": -0.03763213244058017, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.03763213244058017, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.05242796026988494, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.0052044120571821395, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.014795827829304775, "bench_c_p6m": -0.04283654449776231, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02113956840067155, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06466041770970599, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06577352035040407, "price_path": [0.0582, 0.0692, 0.0512, 0.0555, 0.0385, 0.0374, 0.0418, -0.0096, 0.0087, 0.0215, 0.0221, 0.0132, 0.1851, 0.1171, 0.0954, 0.0653, 0.0779, 0.0866, 0.0556, 0.0486, 0.0482, 0.0627, 0.0405, 0.063, 0.0919, 0.0456, 0.0285, 0.0299, 0.0868, 0.0999, 0.1305, 0.1158, 0.1462, 0.1296, 0.1296, 0.1128, 0.1005, 0.1243, 0.1204, 0.1305, 0.139, 0.109, 0.0759, 0.0988, 0.1097, 0.1074, 0.1483, 0.1486, 0.1903, 0.1871, 0.1484, 0.1384, 0.128, 0.1216, 0.1926, 0.1458, 0.201, 0.1989, 0.1412, 0.1226, 0.1247, 0.0962, 0.0935, 0.0, 0.0275, 0.0506, 0.0795, 0.047, 0.0139, 0.0254, 0.0809, -0.0072, 0.0388, 0.0667, 0.0787, 0.1001, 0.0751, -0.0734, -0.0689, 0.0094, -0.0591, -0.0594, -0.1188, -0.0767, -0.0211, -0.0072, -0.0032, -0.0325, -0.0332, -0.0186, -0.0365, 0.0015, -0.0486, -0.0588, 0.005, 0.0668, 0.0853, 0.0853, 0.1375, 0.1398, 0.1608, 0.1997, 0.2114, 0.2142, 0.3606, 0.386, 0.4205, 0.4358, 0.384, 0.3605, 0.3825, 0.3553, 0.4146, 0.3675, 0.3169, 0.3284, 0.3412, 0.3412, 0.3318, 0.3168, 0.3047, 0.2818, 0.2818, 0.2157, 0.3062, 0.3377, 0.3692, 0.3442, 0.4065, 0.4109, 0.4231, 0.3929, 0.3998, 0.3459, 0.3459, 0.3434, 0.382, 0.4532, 0.4376, 0.4388, 0.451, 0.2454, 0.2983, 0.2183, 0.2389, 0.2464, 0.1938, 0.1654, 0.2261, 0.2502, 0.1897, 0.1058, 0.0453, 0.0414, 0.0414, 0.0659, 0.0981, 0.0108, 0.0224, -0.0126, -0.0124, 0.0172, 0.0749, 0.0149, -0.0186, -0.0311, -0.0394, 0.0058, -0.0351, -0.003, -0.0318, -0.06, -0.1112, -0.0884, -0.0707, -0.044, -0.1156, -0.1065, -0.1457, -0.09, -0.0859, -0.0628, -0.0846, -0.0826, -0.1168, -0.0451, -0.0521, -0.0466, -0.0466, -0.0376]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1989322749391536472", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-14T13:21:17+00:00", "symbol": "CRWV", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gordon Johnson nails it. Look out below.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bearish CDS-surge signal on ORCL, CRWV, AMZN, MSFT; 'look out below' implies further downside.", "resolved_tickers": ["CRWV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Gordon Johnson nails it. Look out below. @GordonJohnson19", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "1/2 #ArtificialIntelligenceCDSwatch - $ORCL, $CRWV, $AMZN, &amp; $MSFT CDS (the cost to insure against default) explode higher by +15.4%, +7.2%, +8.1%, &amp; +14.1% in trading today. A CDS of 603.6 for $CRWV, assuming a 40% recovery rate, implies a 41.3% probability for default. https://t.co/kEuuTyHyDL", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.012667990173308441, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.012667990173308441, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.012504138957173394, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012504138957173394, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02624093540952277, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02624093540952277, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.016924587894007304, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.016924587894007304, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "ret_p1w": -0.07381074249511577, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07381074249511577, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05461239899519155, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05461239899519155, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "ret_p1m": -0.0647621780856098, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0647621780856098, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0778589184447196, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0778589184447196, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "ret_p3m": 0.2299638156045576, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.2299638156045576, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1971110514464478, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1971110514464478, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "ret_p6m": 0.4826783356164317, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.4826783356164317, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.376149949973132, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.376149949973132, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0647621780856098, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0778589184447196, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0778589184447196, "price_path": [0.2007, 0.183, 0.1736, 0.215, 0.1942, 0.1814, 0.253, 0.3287, 0.332, 0.332, 0.2066, 0.1618, 0.1308, 0.1516, 0.2093, 0.2955, 0.5142, 0.4567, 0.4473, 0.5573, 0.535, 0.5623, 0.5692, 0.614, 0.7222, 0.692, 0.7244, 0.6373, 0.5556, 0.5838, 0.769, 0.7716, 0.7839, 0.7424, 0.7302, 0.6653, 0.8095, 0.8495, 0.7894, 0.8307, 0.7329, 0.7999, 0.8322, 0.7693, 0.6425, 0.6166, 0.571, 0.5944, 0.7134, 0.7588, 0.7425, 0.8088, 0.6942, 0.7284, 0.6329, 0.4963, 0.4791, 0.3822, 0.3445, 0.3652, 0.1426, 0.1043, 0.0127, 0.0, -0.0262, -0.0318, -0.0315, -0.1054, -0.0738, -0.0486, -0.0785, -0.0397, -0.0397, -0.0548, -0.0039, -0.0172, 0.0259, 0.1085, 0.1414, 0.1148, 0.1719, 0.1396, 0.1295, 0.0159, -0.0648, -0.1016, -0.1656, -0.1251, 0.0729, 0.0966, 0.0375, 0.0195, 0.0195, -0.0122, -0.0315, -0.0447, -0.0743, -0.0743, 0.0253, -0.0065, 0.0075, -0.0023, -0.0035, 0.0359, 0.1625, 0.1308, 0.1608, 0.2282, 0.3086, 0.3086, 0.2309, 0.2157, 0.1865, 0.2019, 0.2708, 0.4072, 0.3705, 0.2866, 0.2046, 0.1497, 0.1642, 0.0659, -0.035, 0.1627, 0.2512, 0.2294, 0.23, 0.2371, 0.2415, 0.2415, 0.1763, 0.2338, 0.2557, 0.1537, 0.1743, 0.2836, 0.2669, 0.262, 0.0284, 0.0089, -0.0463, 0.0277, -0.0328, -0.0565, -0.0381, -0.0315, 0.0595, 0.0323, 0.0485, 0.1099, 0.0615, 0.0706, 0.0427, 0.0531, 0.0595, 0.0732, 0.1321, 0.0399, -0.033, -0.1061, 0.0014, 0.014, 0.0631, 0.0631, 0.0463, 0.1019, 0.1492, 0.1892, 0.3185, 0.4254, 0.515, 0.5343, 0.5455, 0.5105, 0.518, 0.4886, 0.584, 0.5178, 0.4237, 0.4486, 0.3641, 0.4761, 0.4426, 0.5384, 0.6214, 0.6532, 0.7836, 0.6655, 0.4756, 0.4827]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1988410865440485523", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-12T00:57:47+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Revenues and earnings are imploding. Unsupervised cybertaxis are not happening any time soon. I am short.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA: revenues/earnings collapsing, cybertaxi timeline unrealistic.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@GrindeOptions Revenues and earnings are imploding. Unsupervised cybertaxis are not happening any time soon. Let’s see how long @elonmusk can keep the plates spinning. I am short.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Who in their right mind is selling $TSLA right now? https://t.co/BkGbYj4IDC", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "GrindeOptions", "ret_m1d": 0.02094748928429757, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02094748928429757, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021503480198970193, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01418108780555194, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0005559909146726216, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006766401478745632, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.06644220962287406, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06644220962287406, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.04984830326168599, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04147792735082789, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01659390636118807, "bench_c_p1d": -0.024964282272046168, "ret_p1w": -0.061797527849415834, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.061797527849415834, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.031433795963471955, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.005354743888478786, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.03036373188594388, "bench_c_p1w": -0.05644278396093705, "ret_p1m": 0.037830952889038594, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.037830952889038594, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0293583501653496, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.02766038388398817, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.008472602723688993, "bench_c_p1m": 0.010170569005050423, "ret_p3m": -0.03084068414087382, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03084068414087382, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.04930851582493545, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.020863009575599167, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.01846783168406163, "bench_c_p3m": -0.009977674565274652, "ret_p6m": -0.0436832264095971, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.0436832264095971, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.1203106435157103, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.05535733983385016, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0766274171061132, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011674113424253063, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.037830952889038594, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0293583501653496, "alpha_c_stated": -0.02766038388398817, "price_path": [-0.2323, -0.2216, -0.2352, -0.2478, -0.2566, -0.2104, -0.1951, -0.1833, -0.1881, -0.1965, -0.2246, -0.2246, -0.2351, -0.2241, -0.2138, -0.1852, -0.1955, -0.1942, -0.1923, -0.1435, -0.0805, -0.0477, -0.0209, -0.011, -0.0319, -0.0105, 0.0084, -0.011, 0.0283, -0.0167, 0.0228, 0.0293, 0.0328, 0.067, 0.0125, -0.0018, 0.0526, 0.0058, 0.0188, 0.0115, -0.0397, 0.0123, -0.0032, 0.0106, -0.0043, 0.0202, 0.0391, 0.0279, 0.0194, 0.0427, 0.0072, 0.0507, 0.0696, 0.0718, 0.0221, 0.0603, 0.0877, 0.0317, 0.0731, 0.0356, -0.0025, 0.034, 0.0209, 0.0, -0.0664, -0.061, -0.0503, -0.0682, -0.0618, -0.0821, -0.0918, -0.0298, -0.026, -0.0093, -0.0093, -0.001, -0.0011, -0.0032, 0.0375, 0.0556, 0.0567, 0.0209, 0.0338, 0.0484, 0.0378, 0.0659, 0.1038, 0.1377, 0.0851, 0.1225, 0.1175, 0.135, 0.1276, 0.1273, 0.1273, 0.1036, 0.0674, 0.0553, 0.0444, 0.0444, 0.0173, 0.0489, 0.0055, 0.0019, 0.0121, 0.0335, 0.0426, 0.0386, 0.02, 0.0185, 0.016, 0.016, -0.0264, 0.002, 0.0436, 0.0429, 0.0107, 0.0007, 0.002, -0.0326, -0.0004, -0.0204, -0.0201, -0.0571, -0.0775, -0.0453, -0.0308, -0.0125, -0.0054, -0.0314, -0.0306, -0.0306, -0.0464, -0.0448, -0.0439, -0.0436, -0.0715, -0.0493, -0.0307, -0.0511, -0.0652, -0.0634, -0.0886, -0.0573, -0.0582, -0.0787, -0.0741, -0.0728, -0.0529, -0.0827, -0.0915, -0.0814, -0.0728, -0.0878, -0.1168, -0.1455, -0.1155, -0.1105, -0.1037, -0.1358, -0.1597, -0.1749, -0.1367, -0.1146, -0.1626, -0.1626, -0.1806, -0.195, -0.2029, -0.1974, -0.1896, -0.1816, -0.1542, -0.0898, -0.0968, -0.0696, -0.0885, -0.1026, -0.1001, -0.1321, -0.1261, -0.1206, -0.1268, -0.1342, -0.1137, -0.0924, -0.0885, -0.0958, -0.074, -0.0437]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1987955277111382396", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-10T18:47:27+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The trigger will be collapsing sales and earnings. $TSLA may well start losing money.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA: expects collapsing sales and earnings, potentially turning to losses.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@markmillerdakar The trigger will be collapsing sales and earnings. $TSLA may well start losing money.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 You are making a massive mistake with your Short theory.  Never short a stock without a specific trigger, This is the worst mistake any hedgie can make.  Stupid can become stupid10x.  Shorting overvaluation is un intelligent without a trigger event that caps your loss.  Now you", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "markmillerdakar", "ret_m1d": -0.035285182007056215, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.035285182007056215, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.01992065572893076, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.022312227090117265, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.015364526278125457, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01297295491693895, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.01260026442672324, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01260026442672324, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.014889622281261672, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.015069244789544745, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002289357854538432, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0024689803628215046, "ret_p1w": -0.08155334695016492, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08155334695016492, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05841123535485182, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.038700943925977116, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.023142111595313097, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0428524030241878, "ret_p1m": -0.00013475632170623086, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.00013475632170623086, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0024828156596943263, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.01241968924011927, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0023480593379880954, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0125544455618255, "ret_p3m": -0.1078544086120119, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1078544086120119, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10518701320405732, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09331533580134099, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.002667395407954576, "bench_c_p3m": -0.014539072810670906, "ret_p6m": -0.12546327626341425, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12546327626341425, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.19362951597462463, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11760949694407175, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06816623971121039, "bench_c_p6m": -0.007853779319342502, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.00013475632170623086, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0024828156596943263, "alpha_c_stated": -0.01241968924011927, "price_path": [-0.2377, -0.2463, -0.2576, -0.2472, -0.2604, -0.2725, -0.281, -0.2363, -0.2215, -0.2101, -0.2148, -0.2229, -0.2501, -0.2501, -0.2602, -0.2496, -0.2397, -0.212, -0.222, -0.2207, -0.2189, -0.1716, -0.1107, -0.079, -0.053, -0.0435, -0.0637, -0.043, -0.0248, -0.0435, -0.0055, -0.0491, -0.0108, -0.0045, -0.0011, 0.032, -0.0207, -0.0346, 0.018, -0.0273, -0.0147, -0.0218, -0.0713, -0.021, -0.0359, -0.0226, -0.037, -0.0133, 0.0049, -0.0059, -0.0141, 0.0084, -0.0259, 0.0161, 0.0344, 0.0366, -0.0115, 0.0254, 0.052, -0.0022, 0.0378, 0.0015, -0.0353, 0.0, -0.0126, -0.0329, -0.0971, -0.0918, -0.0816, -0.0988, -0.0926, -0.1123, -0.1216, -0.0617, -0.058, -0.0419, -0.0419, -0.0338, -0.0339, -0.0359, 0.0034, 0.0209, 0.0219, -0.0127, -0.0001, 0.014, 0.0037, 0.0308, 0.0676, 0.1003, 0.0495, 0.0857, 0.0808, 0.0977, 0.0906, 0.0902, 0.0902, 0.0673, 0.0324, 0.0207, 0.0101, 0.0101, -0.0161, 0.0145, -0.0276, -0.031, -0.0212, -0.0005, 0.0084, 0.0044, -0.0135, -0.015, -0.0174, -0.0174, -0.0584, -0.031, 0.0093, 0.0086, -0.0225, -0.0322, -0.0309, -0.0644, -0.0333, -0.0526, -0.0523, -0.0881, -0.1079, -0.0766, -0.0627, -0.045, -0.0381, -0.0632, -0.0624, -0.0624, -0.0777, -0.0762, -0.0753, -0.075, -0.102, -0.0805, -0.0625, -0.0823, -0.096, -0.0941, -0.1186, -0.0882, -0.0891, -0.1089, -0.1046, -0.1033, -0.084, -0.1128, -0.1214, -0.1116, -0.1032, -0.1178, -0.1458, -0.1736, -0.1446, -0.1397, -0.1331, -0.1642, -0.1873, -0.202, -0.165, -0.1437, -0.1901, -0.1901, -0.2076, -0.2214, -0.2291, -0.2237, -0.2162, -0.2085, -0.182, -0.1197, -0.1265, -0.1002, -0.1184, -0.1321, -0.1296, -0.1606, -0.1548, -0.1495, -0.1554, -0.1627, -0.1428, -0.1222, -0.1184, -0.1255]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2001050540529090703", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-16T22:03:21+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Fade the $TSLA hype. @elonmusk pumping the stock hard ahead of the bad news to come from CA.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA; author says Musk is pumping ahead of bad California news, driverless taxis not imminent.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA Driverless taxis not happening any time soon https://t.co/iofZQ2NSP7\n\n---\n\nFade the $TSLA hype. @elonmusk pumping the stock hard ahead of the bad news to come from CA. https://t.co/lYp2pupFkP", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04840986740665776, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04840986740665776, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.037283847214411026, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03671050903059703, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011126020192246733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011699358376060731, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.034477560704677446, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.034477560704677446, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.026926297994925186, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01937635744326749, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00755126270975226, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015101203261409957, "ret_p1w": 0.03882203431010134, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03882203431010134, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.007514308278414816, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.01963063127611786, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03130772603168652, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01919140303398348, "ret_p1m": -0.061400509013808, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08150647070589379, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03408622920006743, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020105961692085783, "ret_p3m": -0.15344778219517563, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15344778219517563, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.152862346912081, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08625857547753502, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0005854352830946263, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06718920671764061, "ret_p6m": -0.1457647015487249, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1457647015487249, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2508597300601656, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11460455895883437, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1050950285114407, "bench_c_p6m": -0.031160142589890527, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08150647070589379, "price_path": [-0.0882, -0.0707, -0.0886, -0.0524, -0.0939, -0.0575, -0.0515, -0.0482, -0.0167, -0.0669, -0.0801, -0.03, -0.0731, -0.0611, -0.0679, -0.1151, -0.0671, -0.0814, -0.0687, -0.0824, -0.0598, -0.0424, -0.0528, -0.0605, -0.0391, -0.0718, -0.0318, -0.0144, -0.0123, -0.0581, -0.0229, 0.0024, -0.0492, -0.0111, -0.0457, -0.0808, -0.0471, -0.0592, -0.0785, -0.1397, -0.1346, -0.1249, -0.1413, -0.1354, -0.1542, -0.163, -0.1059, -0.1024, -0.0871, -0.0871, -0.0794, -0.0794, -0.0814, -0.0439, -0.0272, -0.0262, -0.0592, -0.0473, -0.0338, -0.0436, -0.0178, 0.0172, 0.0484, 0.0, 0.0345, 0.0298, 0.0459, 0.0392, 0.0388, 0.0388, 0.017, -0.0163, -0.0275, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0625, -0.0334, -0.0734, -0.0767, -0.0673, -0.0476, -0.0392, -0.0429, -0.0601, -0.0614, -0.0637, -0.0637, -0.1027, -0.0767, -0.0383, -0.039, -0.0686, -0.0778, -0.0766, -0.1085, -0.0789, -0.0973, -0.0969, -0.1311, -0.1499, -0.1202, -0.1069, -0.09, -0.0834, -0.1074, -0.1066, -0.1066, -0.1212, -0.1197, -0.1189, -0.1186, -0.1443, -0.1239, -0.1067, -0.1256, -0.1386, -0.1368, -0.1601, -0.1312, -0.1321, -0.1509, -0.1468, -0.1456, -0.1272, -0.1546, -0.1628, -0.1534, -0.1455, -0.1594, -0.1861, -0.2125, -0.1849, -0.1803, -0.174, -0.2036, -0.2256, -0.2397, -0.2044, -0.1841, -0.2283, -0.2283, -0.2449, -0.2581, -0.2654, -0.2603, -0.2532, -0.2458, -0.2206, -0.1612, -0.1677, -0.1426, -0.16, -0.173, -0.1707, -0.2002, -0.1947, -0.1896, -0.1953, -0.2022, -0.1833, -0.1636, -0.16, -0.1667, -0.1467, -0.1187, -0.0833, -0.0476, -0.0724, -0.0471, -0.0513, -0.0963, -0.1226, -0.1351, -0.107, -0.1057, -0.0883, -0.0883, -0.0721, -0.0576, -0.0538, -0.0674, -0.11, -0.0931, -0.0932, -0.1045, -0.1632, -0.1248, -0.1511, -0.1833, -0.1458]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2000933008061424117", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-16T14:16:19+00:00", "symbol": "ORCL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$ORCL is a total disaster and heading much lower", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish ORCL; calls it a total disaster heading much lower amid massive off-balance-sheet lease commitments.", "resolved_tickers": ["ORCL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@JackFarley96 $ORCL is a total disaster and heading much lower.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Oracle has entered into a quarter Trillion of lease commitments related to data centers\n\nNot yet included as a liability on $ORCL's balance sheet but it sounds like a liability... https://t.co/T8ek7yQ3ni", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JackFarley96", "ret_m1d": -0.019772124589686357, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.019772124589686357, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.022511986222322533, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.022511986222322533, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05401536720607458, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05401536720607458, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.043011773222674354, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.043011773222674354, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "bench_c_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "ret_p1w": 0.03546249528497847, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03546249528497847, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.019078169860777594, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.019078169860777594, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "bench_c_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "ret_p1m": 0.029004980934426827, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.029004980934426827, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00907498954816588, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.00907498954816588, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "bench_c_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "ret_p3m": -0.17561616734572472, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17561616734572472, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.154075927078425, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.154075927078425, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "bench_c_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "ret_p6m": 0.07339930362133984, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.07339930362133984, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.001269721927434686, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.001269721927434686, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "bench_c_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.029004980934426827, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.00907498954816588, "alpha_c_stated": -0.00907498954816588, "price_path": [0.5696, 0.6333, 0.7365, 0.6607, 0.6323, 0.5416, 0.5, 0.4963, 0.4882, 0.5293, 0.5281, 0.5141, 0.543, 0.5041, 0.5273, 0.5741, 0.5529, 0.6327, 0.5849, 0.6094, 0.6592, 0.5442, 0.4693, 0.4585, 0.4453, 0.4846, 0.5019, 0.4917, 0.4886, 0.4593, 0.3617, 0.392, 0.3668, 0.3155, 0.3268, 0.2923, 0.2683, 0.2766, 0.2518, 0.2032, 0.1533, 0.1813, 0.1654, 0.1688, 0.1955, 0.1168, 0.0536, 0.0616, 0.0444, 0.0865, 0.0865, 0.0705, 0.0651, 0.066, 0.1011, 0.1361, 0.1534, 0.169, 0.1743, 0.1821, 0.0541, 0.007, -0.0198, 0.0, -0.054, -0.0457, 0.0176, 0.0516, 0.0355, 0.0469, 0.0469, 0.0495, 0.0357, 0.0454, 0.0332, 0.0332, 0.0374, 0.0209, 0.027, 0.0222, 0.0053, 0.0551, 0.0878, 0.0751, 0.029, 0.009, 0.0156, 0.0156, -0.0438, -0.0759, -0.053, -0.0584, -0.0304, -0.0704, -0.0816, -0.1017, -0.1253, -0.1493, -0.178, -0.2205, -0.2746, -0.2409, -0.1678, -0.1502, -0.1647, -0.1683, -0.1489, -0.1489, -0.1817, -0.17, -0.168, -0.213, -0.249, -0.2233, -0.214, -0.2011, -0.2272, -0.2068, -0.208, -0.1902, -0.1773, -0.187, -0.1945, -0.206, -0.133, -0.1541, -0.1756, -0.171, -0.1778, -0.1874, -0.1734, -0.2045, -0.1797, -0.2182, -0.2239, -0.241, -0.2577, -0.2623, -0.2181, -0.2281, -0.222, -0.222, -0.2265, -0.2391, -0.2365, -0.2647, -0.2635, -0.17, -0.1307, -0.0943, -0.0488, -0.0663, -0.0529, -0.0337, 0.0, -0.0598, -0.0758, -0.0775, -0.1149, -0.1262, -0.1392, -0.0836, -0.0384, -0.0115, 0.0348, 0.0378, 0.0451, 0.0338, -0.0036, 0.0121, 0.0433, 0.0291, -0.0047, -0.0322, 0.0035, 0.0121, 0.0244, 0.0244, 0.0297, 0.0185, 0.0864, 0.2042, 0.3235, 0.3044, 0.2284, 0.2605, 0.1396, 0.1297, 0.0977, 0.0734]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2004991267386851688", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-27T19:02:23+00:00", "symbol": "OKLO", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Stay short $OKLO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Stay short OKLO at $76.92; reiterates bearish position.", "resolved_tickers": ["OKLO"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Utilities - Independent Power Producers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Let’s go to the video tape. $OKLO: https://t.co/dX5QgBSvM7\n\n---\n\n$76.92 last. Stay short $OKLO https://t.co/NMSaFwHNHn\n\n---\n\nShay Boloor please call your office @StockSavvyShay $OKLO https://t.co/qEq4A4Y4lW", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.038196814292557724, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.038196814292557724, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.034620415739816224, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.034620415739816224, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.033337747515117755, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.033337747515117755, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03211653390175273, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03211653390175273, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "ret_p1w": 0.20583075656329797, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.20583075656329797, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.20601969231443795, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.20601969231443795, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "ret_p1m": 0.15089756860276937, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.15089756860276937, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1397905014422649, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1397905014422649, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "ret_p3m": -0.300715293100984, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.300715293100984, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.24111186192783396, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.24111186192783396, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "ret_p6m": -0.2281009386760997, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2281009386760997, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.30025111316067443, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.30025111316067443, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.15089756860276937, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1397905014422649, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1397905014422649, "price_path": [0.5647, 0.7384, 0.719, 0.8702, 0.8102, 0.819, 0.8644, 0.9862, 1.3081, 1.3504, 1.3156, 1.1884, 1.2053, 1.1467, 0.882, 0.6213, 0.6831, 0.8363, 0.8549, 0.7854, 0.9358, 0.8544, 0.792, 0.7097, 0.5148, 0.6363, 0.4408, 0.5204, 0.5052, 0.4067, 0.5005, 0.3718, 0.3169, 0.2871, 0.3042, 0.3883, 0.1877, 0.19, 0.2087, 0.1576, 0.1975, 0.1975, 0.2334, 0.1791, 0.2396, 0.3037, 0.507, 0.4127, 0.4119, 0.4028, 0.3578, 0.3902, 0.1799, 0.1112, 0.1271, 0.025, 0.049, 0.1234, 0.1262, 0.1051, 0.0974, 0.0974, 0.0382, 0.0, -0.0333, -0.0314, -0.0314, 0.0501, 0.2058, 0.2903, 0.3173, 0.3173, 0.4214, 0.3835, 0.3104, 0.2953, 0.2343, 0.2815, 0.2815, 0.2138, 0.2253, 0.2273, 0.1828, 0.1109, 0.1509, 0.274, 0.1613, 0.0746, -0.0063, 0.0528, -0.0791, -0.1613, -0.0404, 0.013, -0.0624, -0.1061, -0.1373, -0.1134, -0.1134, -0.0871, -0.0904, -0.0871, -0.1385, -0.1485, -0.1219, -0.1049, -0.0678, -0.1504, -0.127, -0.1456, -0.1139, -0.1628, -0.2138, -0.1661, -0.1715, -0.1529, -0.1957, -0.2122, -0.1944, -0.183, -0.2347, -0.2618, -0.2716, -0.2407, -0.2582, -0.254, -0.3007, -0.322, -0.3848, -0.3307, -0.3512, -0.3504, -0.3504, -0.3419, -0.3712, -0.3223, -0.3555, -0.3218, -0.272, -0.2093, -0.145, -0.1334, -0.0983, -0.0804, -0.1549, -0.0227, 0.032, -0.0417, 0.0248, -0.0675, -0.123, -0.0215, -0.0498, -0.0741, -0.0771, 0.0746, -0.0305, -0.0213, 0.0545, -0.0062, -0.0598, -0.0929, -0.1598, -0.2096, -0.2458, -0.1554, -0.1215, -0.1108, -0.1108, -0.0727, -0.0846, -0.081, -0.0973, -0.0972, -0.0084, -0.1199, -0.1174, -0.216, -0.2045, -0.2377, -0.2709, -0.2191, -0.2241, -0.1802, -0.2246, -0.2061, -0.1744, -0.1744, -0.2118, -0.2281]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1991553520760418370", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-20T17:05:35+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Also missing was a fundamental case that would even justify the current $7 $OPEN stock price", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: no fundamental case justifies even the current $7 price, let alone any higher valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Also missing was a fundamental case that would even justify the current $7 $OPEN stock price. @nejatian would you kindly fill us in? \n\nAlso, while you are at it, please lay out the business model for an $82 share price - asking for a friend;)", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "We had our first Opendoor 2.0 board dinner last night.  \n\nTwo things were in short supply: \n\n1. Carbs\n2. Pessimism", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.08603899723000952, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.08603899723000952, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07056084845123456, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.08257115026463024, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015478148778774958, "bench_c_m1d": 0.003467846965379273, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.09577924792250725, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.09577924792250725, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0858181097535422, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08265057515224106, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009961138168965045, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013128672770266192, "ret_p1w": 0.26298707833196167, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.26298707833196167, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.22137985123479886, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.23573905795968253, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0416072270971628, "bench_c_p1w": 0.027248020372279136, "ret_p1m": 0.03246757971695691, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03246757971695691, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.013616217957067356, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.033458448570409915, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04608379767402426, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0009908688534530086, "ret_p3m": -0.29707791705138753, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.29707791705138753, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3466352867752238, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3974052801751371, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.049557369723836286, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10032736312374957, "ret_p6m": -0.2889610027699905, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2889610027699905, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4281864408120317, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3787850978406264, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13922543804204124, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08982409507063593, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03246757971695691, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.013616217957067356, "alpha_c_stated": -0.033458448570409915, "price_path": [-0.263, -0.237, -0.3474, -0.3068, -0.2776, -0.2776, -0.1737, -0.1672, -0.0325, 0.0795, -0.0195, -0.0081, -0.0487, 0.7078, 0.4724, 0.5414, 0.4481, 0.6575, 0.6136, 0.5536, 0.3604, 0.151, 0.336, 0.4756, 0.4302, 0.3312, 0.2938, 0.3084, 0.3003, 0.3166, 0.5065, 0.5081, 0.3782, 0.3214, 0.2289, 0.1802, 0.2403, 0.1981, 0.1542, 0.1623, 0.1964, 0.1299, 0.1071, 0.1412, 0.2938, 0.3247, 0.2938, 0.2419, 0.1916, 0.2614, 0.2321, 0.1234, 0.1737, 0.0649, 0.0649, 0.2938, 0.3766, 0.5211, 0.3896, 0.3182, 0.2727, 0.2208, 0.086, 0.0, 0.0958, 0.2484, 0.2565, 0.263, 0.263, 0.25, 0.1591, 0.1347, 0.1266, 0.2305, 0.1607, 0.1445, 0.2029, 0.1364, 0.1445, 0.0649, 0.0503, 0.0925, -0.0065, 0.0195, 0.0325, 0.0422, 0.0179, 0.0195, 0.0195, -0.0244, -0.0536, -0.0519, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0146, 0.026, 0.125, -0.0065, 0.0438, 0.1834, 0.1396, 0.099, 0.0779, 0.0227, 0.0828, 0.0828, 0.0373, 0.0519, 0.0422, -0.0244, -0.0471, -0.0568, -0.0649, -0.0942, -0.164, -0.2175, -0.1672, -0.1883, -0.237, -0.2078, -0.1981, -0.2386, -0.2273, -0.289, -0.2784, -0.2784, -0.2971, -0.2484, -0.2451, -0.1883, -0.224, -0.1705, -0.1916, -0.1218, -0.1201, -0.1802, -0.1932, -0.2078, -0.1591, -0.1883, -0.1753, -0.1867, -0.1445, -0.2143, -0.1964, -0.1591, -0.0974, -0.1429, -0.1656, -0.2029, -0.1542, -0.1591, -0.1721, -0.2045, -0.2208, -0.2808, -0.2403, -0.2581, -0.2305, -0.2305, -0.2516, -0.2614, -0.2468, -0.3003, -0.2987, -0.2922, -0.2679, -0.2175, -0.1445, -0.1412, -0.1315, -0.1153, -0.1185, -0.1526, -0.1055, -0.125, -0.1104, -0.0942, -0.1266, -0.1169, -0.1672, -0.151, -0.1136, -0.1364, -0.1867, -0.2127, -0.2354, -0.2565, -0.2744, -0.289]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1972440144251621886", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-28T23:15:51+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "11 years of nonstop losses. And no, they have net burned cash from operations since going public. No credit given for generating cash from inventory liquidation as that is not a sustainable source of income.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: 11 years of losses, cash burn from operations since IPO, inventory liquidation not a sustainable income source.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Accurate on never, as in annual. \nThat is the standard way to look at things, as one needs to consider seasonality.\nThey have been around since 2014, so not so young ; 11 years of nonstop losses. And no, they have net burned cash from operations since going public. No credit given for generating cash from inventory liquidation as that is not a sustainable source of income.  $OPEN\nAny further questions?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0743903200659013, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0743903200659013, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07719298310114497, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07629677675290591, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00280266303524368, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0019064566870046207, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02804878346626427, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03181552549497135, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03210035393166055, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003766742028707082, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004051570465396281, "ret_p1w": 0.13170731083258902, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.13170731083258902, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1197588327272987, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.13885694341547006, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011948478105290317, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007149632582881038, "ret_p1m": -0.02804878346626427, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06327656555789185, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.023997399670474096, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03522778209162758, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0040513837957901755, "ret_p3m": -0.23414629806300602, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.23414629806300602, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.27745029330204884, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2084544001679205, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.043303995239042825, "bench_c_p3m": -0.025691897895085525, "ret_p6m": -0.36829268916741087, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.36829268916741087, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35807569582166077, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.345511343770492, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.010216993345750103, "bench_c_p6m": -0.022781345396918895, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06327656555789185, "alpha_c_stated": 0.023997399670474096, "price_path": [-0.931, -0.9256, -0.9256, -0.9237, -0.9107, -0.9101, -0.8923, -0.905, -0.8901, -0.8732, -0.8183, -0.7988, -0.7256, -0.6085, -0.6488, -0.7207, -0.7049, -0.6902, -0.7146, -0.75, -0.7476, -0.7756, -0.7439, -0.7, -0.6927, -0.7683, -0.7744, -0.7622, -0.7183, -0.6988, -0.7049, -0.6293, -0.6134, -0.539, -0.5585, -0.6073, -0.561, -0.389, -0.4463, -0.4268, -0.5098, -0.4793, -0.4573, -0.4573, -0.3793, -0.3744, -0.2732, -0.189, -0.2634, -0.2549, -0.2854, 0.2829, 0.1061, 0.1579, 0.0878, 0.2451, 0.2122, 0.1671, 0.022, -0.1354, 0.0037, 0.1085, 0.0744, 0.0, -0.028, -0.0171, -0.0232, -0.011, 0.1317, 0.1329, 0.0354, -0.0073, -0.0768, -0.1134, -0.0683, -0.1, -0.1329, -0.1268, -0.1012, -0.1512, -0.1683, -0.1427, -0.028, -0.0049, -0.028, -0.0671, -0.1049, -0.0524, -0.0744, -0.1561, -0.1183, -0.2, -0.2, -0.028, 0.0341, 0.1427, 0.0439, -0.0098, -0.0439, -0.0829, -0.1841, -0.2488, -0.1768, -0.0622, -0.0561, -0.0512, -0.0512, -0.061, -0.1293, -0.1476, -0.1537, -0.0756, -0.128, -0.1402, -0.0963, -0.1463, -0.1402, -0.2, -0.211, -0.1793, -0.2537, -0.2341, -0.2244, -0.2171, -0.2354, -0.2341, -0.2341, -0.2671, -0.289, -0.2878, -0.289, -0.289, -0.2598, -0.2293, -0.1549, -0.2537, -0.2159, -0.111, -0.1439, -0.1744, -0.1902, -0.2317, -0.1866, -0.1866, -0.2207, -0.2098, -0.2171, -0.2671, -0.2841, -0.2915, -0.2976, -0.3195, -0.372, -0.4122, -0.3744, -0.3902, -0.4268, -0.4049, -0.3976, -0.428, -0.4195, -0.4659, -0.4579, -0.4579, -0.472, -0.4354, -0.4329, -0.3902, -0.4171, -0.3768, -0.3927, -0.3402, -0.339, -0.3841, -0.3939, -0.4049, -0.3683, -0.3902, -0.3805, -0.389, -0.3573, -0.4098, -0.3963, -0.3683, -0.322, -0.3561, -0.3732, -0.4012, -0.3646, -0.3683]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2001385987214315952", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-17T20:16:17+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA will post losses 1q 2026 as demand collapses IMHO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish TSLA into Q1 2026; forecasts losses on collapsing demand.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@TomTwr $TSLA will post losses 1q 2026 as demand collapses IMHO.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Check back with us the end of 1st QTR", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "TomTwr", "ret_m1d": 0.04840986740665776, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04840986740665776, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.037283847214411026, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03671050903059703, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011126020192246733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011699358376060731, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.034477560704677446, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.034477560704677446, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.026926297994925186, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01937635744326749, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00755126270975226, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015101203261409957, "ret_p1w": 0.03882203431010134, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03882203431010134, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.007514308278414816, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.01963063127611786, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03130772603168652, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01919140303398348, "ret_p1m": -0.061400509013808, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.061400509013808, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09548673821387543, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08150647070589379, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03408622920006743, "bench_c_p1m": 0.020105961692085783, "ret_p3m": -0.15344778219517563, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15344778219517563, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.152862346912081, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08625857547753502, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0005854352830946263, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06718920671764061, "ret_p6m": -0.1457647015487249, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1457647015487249, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2508597300601656, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11460455895883437, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1050950285114407, "bench_c_p6m": -0.031160142589890527, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.15344778219517563, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.152862346912081, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08625857547753502, "price_path": [-0.0882, -0.0707, -0.0886, -0.0524, -0.0939, -0.0575, -0.0515, -0.0482, -0.0167, -0.0669, -0.0801, -0.03, -0.0731, -0.0611, -0.0679, -0.1151, -0.0671, -0.0814, -0.0687, -0.0824, -0.0598, -0.0424, -0.0528, -0.0605, -0.0391, -0.0718, -0.0318, -0.0144, -0.0123, -0.0581, -0.0229, 0.0024, -0.0492, -0.0111, -0.0457, -0.0808, -0.0471, -0.0592, -0.0785, -0.1397, -0.1346, -0.1249, -0.1413, -0.1354, -0.1542, -0.163, -0.1059, -0.1024, -0.0871, -0.0871, -0.0794, -0.0794, -0.0814, -0.0439, -0.0272, -0.0262, -0.0592, -0.0473, -0.0338, -0.0436, -0.0178, 0.0172, 0.0484, 0.0, 0.0345, 0.0298, 0.0459, 0.0392, 0.0388, 0.0388, 0.017, -0.0163, -0.0275, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0625, -0.0334, -0.0734, -0.0767, -0.0673, -0.0476, -0.0392, -0.0429, -0.0601, -0.0614, -0.0637, -0.0637, -0.1027, -0.0767, -0.0383, -0.039, -0.0686, -0.0778, -0.0766, -0.1085, -0.0789, -0.0973, -0.0969, -0.1311, -0.1499, -0.1202, -0.1069, -0.09, -0.0834, -0.1074, -0.1066, -0.1066, -0.1212, -0.1197, -0.1189, -0.1186, -0.1443, -0.1239, -0.1067, -0.1256, -0.1386, -0.1368, -0.1601, -0.1312, -0.1321, -0.1509, -0.1468, -0.1456, -0.1272, -0.1546, -0.1628, -0.1534, -0.1455, -0.1594, -0.1861, -0.2125, -0.1849, -0.1803, -0.174, -0.2036, -0.2256, -0.2397, -0.2044, -0.1841, -0.2283, -0.2283, -0.2449, -0.2581, -0.2654, -0.2603, -0.2532, -0.2458, -0.2206, -0.1612, -0.1677, -0.1426, -0.16, -0.173, -0.1707, -0.2002, -0.1947, -0.1896, -0.1953, -0.2022, -0.1833, -0.1636, -0.16, -0.1667, -0.1467, -0.1187, -0.0833, -0.0476, -0.0724, -0.0471, -0.0513, -0.0963, -0.1226, -0.1351, -0.107, -0.1057, -0.0883, -0.0883, -0.0721, -0.0576, -0.0538, -0.0674, -0.11, -0.0931, -0.0932, -0.1045, -0.1632, -0.1248, -0.1511, -0.1833, -0.1458]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1991553120363528602", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-20T17:03:59+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is wildly overpriced... $OPEN is a SELL", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: overvalued at 40x revenues, perpetual losses since inception, challenged housing market, guiding to losses until 2027.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN is wildly overpriced.\n\nClassic example of a low bar. \n\nA lame attempt to spin another upcoming loss making quarter. \n\nWhat a disaster. \n$OPEN 4q 2024 gross revenues were $1.1B. If they continue at this pace their revenue “beat” would constitute a decline of 35% from last year. \n\nRecall that $OPEN is guiding to losses until 2027. \n\n$OPEN is valued at 40x 4q revenues/gross profits.\n\nKNOW WHAT YOU OWN, as Peter Lynch would always say. \n\nLook at the record - $OPEN has lost money EVERY YEAR since inception.\n\nUnderstand $OPEN unit economics - low margin, asset heavy, does not scale.\n\nThe outlook for housing \nremains very challenged owing to poor levels of affordability.\n\nIndustry is extremely competitive.\n\nLook at the valuation - 20/40x revenues (same as gross margin).\n\n$OPEN remains a house flipper, regardless of how management tries to spin it. \n\nDon’t confuse a speculative lottery ticket/meme stock for a serious investment. \n\n$OPEN is a SELL\n\n@nejatian @ericjackson @rabois @m3_melody @dayetweets @APompliano @UnicusResearch", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$OPEN now $54.3m ahead of revenue guidance QTD vs expected.   \n\nCurrent as of today: $377m\n\nExpected this time in the QTR: $322.7m\n\n557 homes to sell at current avg sale price of $377k\n\n41 days left to go. https://t.co/nOxHfvtzi0", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.08603899723000952, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.08603899723000952, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07056084845123456, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.08257115026463024, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015478148778774958, "bench_c_m1d": 0.003467846965379273, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.09577924792250725, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.09577924792250725, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0858181097535422, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08265057515224106, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009961138168965045, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013128672770266192, "ret_p1w": 0.26298707833196167, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.26298707833196167, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.22137985123479886, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.23573905795968253, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0416072270971628, "bench_c_p1w": 0.027248020372279136, "ret_p1m": 0.03246757971695691, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03246757971695691, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.013616217957067356, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.033458448570409915, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04608379767402426, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0009908688534530086, "ret_p3m": -0.29707791705138753, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.29707791705138753, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3466352867752238, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3974052801751371, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.049557369723836286, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10032736312374957, "ret_p6m": -0.2889610027699905, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2889610027699905, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4281864408120317, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3787850978406264, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13922543804204124, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08982409507063593, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03246757971695691, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.013616217957067356, "alpha_c_stated": -0.033458448570409915, "price_path": [-0.263, -0.237, -0.3474, -0.3068, -0.2776, -0.2776, -0.1737, -0.1672, -0.0325, 0.0795, -0.0195, -0.0081, -0.0487, 0.7078, 0.4724, 0.5414, 0.4481, 0.6575, 0.6136, 0.5536, 0.3604, 0.151, 0.336, 0.4756, 0.4302, 0.3312, 0.2938, 0.3084, 0.3003, 0.3166, 0.5065, 0.5081, 0.3782, 0.3214, 0.2289, 0.1802, 0.2403, 0.1981, 0.1542, 0.1623, 0.1964, 0.1299, 0.1071, 0.1412, 0.2938, 0.3247, 0.2938, 0.2419, 0.1916, 0.2614, 0.2321, 0.1234, 0.1737, 0.0649, 0.0649, 0.2938, 0.3766, 0.5211, 0.3896, 0.3182, 0.2727, 0.2208, 0.086, 0.0, 0.0958, 0.2484, 0.2565, 0.263, 0.263, 0.25, 0.1591, 0.1347, 0.1266, 0.2305, 0.1607, 0.1445, 0.2029, 0.1364, 0.1445, 0.0649, 0.0503, 0.0925, -0.0065, 0.0195, 0.0325, 0.0422, 0.0179, 0.0195, 0.0195, -0.0244, -0.0536, -0.0519, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0146, 0.026, 0.125, -0.0065, 0.0438, 0.1834, 0.1396, 0.099, 0.0779, 0.0227, 0.0828, 0.0828, 0.0373, 0.0519, 0.0422, -0.0244, -0.0471, -0.0568, -0.0649, -0.0942, -0.164, -0.2175, -0.1672, -0.1883, -0.237, -0.2078, -0.1981, -0.2386, -0.2273, -0.289, -0.2784, -0.2784, -0.2971, -0.2484, -0.2451, -0.1883, -0.224, -0.1705, -0.1916, -0.1218, -0.1201, -0.1802, -0.1932, -0.2078, -0.1591, -0.1883, -0.1753, -0.1867, -0.1445, -0.2143, -0.1964, -0.1591, -0.0974, -0.1429, -0.1656, -0.2029, -0.1542, -0.1591, -0.1721, -0.2045, -0.2208, -0.2808, -0.2403, -0.2581, -0.2305, -0.2305, -0.2516, -0.2614, -0.2468, -0.3003, -0.2987, -0.2922, -0.2679, -0.2175, -0.1445, -0.1412, -0.1315, -0.1153, -0.1185, -0.1526, -0.1055, -0.125, -0.1104, -0.0942, -0.1266, -0.1169, -0.1672, -0.151, -0.1136, -0.1364, -0.1867, -0.2127, -0.2354, -0.2565, -0.2744, -0.289]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1989450164336312590", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-14T21:47:36+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The $TSLA bulls have no answer for this. They just follow the narrative and stock price.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses Chanos's bearish view: TSLA AI/robotics leader thesis is unsupported by actual AI spending.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The $TSLA bulls have no answer for this. They just follow the narrative and stock price. @RealJimChanos", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "What’s so ridiculous about this view that $TSLA is an AI/robotics “leader”, is that you can quantify just how little Tesla is actually spending on AI. For the LTM it’s below $3B, or less than 1% of the Big Four hyperscalers. https://t.co/THIqHDvO7T", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01117579764783605, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01117579764783605, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02057975570463, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.020663340151845344, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.009403958056793948, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009487542504009294, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.018756757252943457, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.018756757252943457, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010359203909148573, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.000306233714958859, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008397553343794883, "bench_c_p1d": -0.018450523537984598, "ret_p1w": 0.0216667931640091, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0216667931640091, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.017069929160293373, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.022585044191773096, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004596864003715728, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0009182510277639944, "ret_p1m": 0.19798490853122708, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.19798490853122708, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.17815524109593572, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1317904321984058, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019829667435291354, "bench_c_p1m": 0.06619447633282127, "ret_p3m": 0.01993053318219329, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.01993053318219329, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.0065286843145677675, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0024406765943192354, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.026459217496761056, "bench_c_p3m": 0.017489856587874053, "ret_p6m": 0.05998727862125519, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.05998727862125519, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.05525475126543311, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.021490265353192317, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1152420298866883, "bench_c_p6m": 0.038497013268062874, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.19798490853122708, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.17815524109593572, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1317904321984058, "price_path": [-0.2079, -0.2172, -0.1685, -0.1524, -0.14, -0.1451, -0.1539, -0.1835, -0.1835, -0.1946, -0.183, -0.1721, -0.142, -0.1529, -0.1515, -0.1495, -0.0981, -0.0317, 0.0027, 0.0311, 0.0414, 0.0194, 0.0419, 0.0618, 0.0414, 0.0828, 0.0354, 0.077, 0.0839, 0.0875, 0.1236, 0.0662, 0.0511, 0.1084, 0.0591, 0.0728, 0.0651, 0.0112, 0.066, 0.0497, 0.0641, 0.0485, 0.0743, 0.0942, 0.0824, 0.0735, 0.098, 0.0606, 0.1064, 0.1263, 0.1286, 0.0762, 0.1165, 0.1454, 0.0864, 0.13, 0.0905, 0.0504, 0.0888, 0.0751, 0.053, -0.0169, -0.0112, 0.0, -0.0188, -0.0121, -0.0335, -0.0436, 0.0217, 0.0256, 0.0432, 0.0432, 0.052, 0.0519, 0.0497, 0.0925, 0.1115, 0.1127, 0.075, 0.0886, 0.104, 0.0929, 0.1224, 0.1624, 0.198, 0.1427, 0.1821, 0.1768, 0.1952, 0.1874, 0.187, 0.187, 0.1621, 0.124, 0.1113, 0.0998, 0.0998, 0.0713, 0.1045, 0.0588, 0.055, 0.0657, 0.0883, 0.0979, 0.0936, 0.074, 0.0725, 0.0699, 0.0699, 0.0253, 0.0551, 0.0989, 0.0982, 0.0643, 0.0538, 0.0551, 0.0187, 0.0526, 0.0315, 0.0319, -0.0071, -0.0286, 0.0054, 0.0205, 0.0398, 0.0473, 0.0199, 0.0208, 0.0208, 0.0042, 0.0059, 0.0068, 0.0071, -0.0222, 0.0011, 0.0207, -0.0008, -0.0157, -0.0137, -0.0403, -0.0073, -0.0082, -0.0298, -0.025, -0.0237, -0.0027, -0.034, -0.0433, -0.0327, -0.0236, -0.0395, -0.07, -0.1002, -0.0686, -0.0633, -0.0562, -0.09, -0.1152, -0.1312, -0.0909, -0.0676, -0.1182, -0.1182, -0.1372, -0.1523, -0.1606, -0.1548, -0.1467, -0.1382, -0.1094, -0.0415, -0.049, -0.0203, -0.0402, -0.055, -0.0524, -0.0861, -0.0798, -0.074, -0.0805, -0.0883, -0.0667, -0.0443, -0.0401, -0.0478, -0.0249, 0.007, 0.0475, 0.0882, 0.06]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1982096628527054989", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-25T14:47:16+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "THIS", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author endorses bullish gold thesis: quant model remains bullish despite ETF holdings still below 2022 levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the gold ETF; direct pass-through", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THIS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Despite the surge in gold prices this year, the amount of gold held in US ETFs is still below where it was in 2022. My quant model, which brings together dozens of leading indicators for gold prices, remains bullish. https://t.co/4f5XhEJZtB", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.028636764579687224, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.028636764579687224, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0402968670950441, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0402968670950441, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.011660102515356874, "bench_c_m1d": -0.011660102515356874, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007166030388359279, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.007166030388359279, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.009822046407439111, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.009822046407439111, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002656016019079832, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002656016019079832, "ret_p1w": 0.004822726810100431, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.004822726810100431, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.007595404924560789, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.007595404924560789, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0027726781144603585, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0027726781144603585, "ret_p1m": 0.03561204451885991, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03561204451885991, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05052647165947466, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05052647165947466, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.01491442714061475, "bench_c_p1m": -0.01491442714061475, "ret_p3m": 0.23100187058505006, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.23100187058505006, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.22257283212320078, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22257283212320078, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.00842903846184928, "bench_c_p3m": 0.00842903846184928, "ret_p6m": 0.17045855942333832, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17045855942333832, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.1371139460598434, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.1371139460598434, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.033344613363494924, "bench_c_p6m": 0.033344613363494924, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03561204451885991, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05052647165947466, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05052647165947466, "price_path": [-0.18, -0.1745, -0.1578, -0.1529, -0.1522, -0.154, -0.1468, -0.147, -0.1593, -0.1601, -0.1575, -0.1628, -0.1623, -0.1636, -0.1682, -0.1598, -0.1627, -0.1538, -0.1558, -0.1497, -0.148, -0.1416, -0.1333, -0.1333, -0.1129, -0.1059, -0.1099, -0.098, -0.0877, -0.0898, -0.0865, -0.0879, -0.0861, -0.0766, -0.0747, -0.0819, -0.0855, -0.0758, -0.0598, -0.056, -0.0645, -0.0607, -0.0552, -0.0396, -0.0314, -0.0299, -0.0333, -0.0255, -0.0072, -0.002, 0.0144, -0.0043, 0.0057, 0.0302, 0.0375, 0.0555, 0.0802, 0.0599, 0.0985, 0.0279, 0.028, 0.0321, 0.0286, 0.0, -0.0072, -0.0109, 0.0085, 0.003, 0.0048, -0.0128, -0.0014, -0.0026, 0.0035, 0.031, 0.035, 0.0517, 0.0432, 0.0244, 0.0126, 0.02, 0.0217, 0.0214, 0.0198, 0.0359, 0.0356, 0.0439, 0.0439, 0.0569, 0.062, 0.0551, 0.0541, 0.0548, 0.0529, 0.0502, 0.0556, 0.0601, 0.0715, 0.0775, 0.0784, 0.0787, 0.088, 0.086, 0.0872, 0.1123, 0.1271, 0.1224, 0.1224, 0.1355, 0.0861, 0.0869, 0.0798, 0.0798, 0.0852, 0.1138, 0.1258, 0.115, 0.1212, 0.1293, 0.1505, 0.1488, 0.1606, 0.1535, 0.1479, 0.1479, 0.1913, 0.2087, 0.231, 0.2479, 0.2662, 0.2972, 0.3475, 0.3512, 0.2124, 0.1638, 0.2378, 0.2369, 0.204, 0.241, 0.2725, 0.2599, 0.2742, 0.2299, 0.2605, 0.2605, 0.2212, 0.2487, 0.2522, 0.2769, 0.3114, 0.2932, 0.2899, 0.301, 0.3181, 0.3351, 0.2756, 0.2855, 0.2701, 0.2902, 0.2875, 0.302, 0.2976, 0.2721, 0.2557, 0.2545, 0.2514, 0.2118, 0.1618, 0.1263, 0.1009, 0.1011, 0.1343, 0.0916, 0.1299, 0.1296, 0.1724, 0.1929, 0.17, 0.17, 0.1652, 0.1766, 0.184, 0.1932, 0.1911, 0.1862, 0.2127, 0.2001, 0.1991, 0.215, 0.2046, 0.1705]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989100888494092707", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-13T22:39:42+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I suspect the numbers for the month and quarter will be dreadful. I also anticipate that 2026 will be the third consecutive year of declining deliveries.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: current quarter sales expected dreadful, 2026 seen as third consecutive year of declining deliveries.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@garyblack00 @BradMunchen @elonmusk Thanks Gary. I suspect the numbers for the month and quarter will be dreadful. I also anticipate that 2026 will be the third consecutive year of declining deliveries. $TSLA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @BradMunchen @elonmusk No, $TSLA doesn’t disclose monthly sales. From other sources we can track China and some European sales, but rarely get interim sales before quarter-end.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "garyblack00", "ret_m1d": -0.0058365669185533875, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0058365669185533875, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0060004181346884344, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01064408854382437, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004807521625270983, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011302107716671506, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011302107716671506, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020618455232186972, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.020700482738195358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009398375021523853, "ret_p1w": -0.03279339573505624, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03279339573505624, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013595052235132021, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009448939789045818, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023344455946010423, "ret_p1m": 0.175491505833963, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12104994010517256, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05444156572879044, "ret_p3m": 0.05915662804276711, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03708219761959586, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022074430423171254, "ret_p6m": 0.10053170095928676, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10053170095928676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.005996684684012932, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.062402347566690386, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03812935339259638, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_stated": -0.03708219761959586, "price_path": [-0.1856, -0.199, -0.2083, -0.1591, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1354, -0.1444, -0.1743, -0.1743, -0.1855, -0.1738, -0.1628, -0.1323, -0.1433, -0.1419, -0.1399, -0.0879, -0.0208, 0.0141, 0.0427, 0.0532, 0.0309, 0.0537, 0.0738, 0.0532, 0.0951, 0.0471, 0.0892, 0.0961, 0.0998, 0.1363, 0.0783, 0.063, 0.1209, 0.0711, 0.0849, 0.0771, 0.0226, 0.078, 0.0616, 0.0762, 0.0603, 0.0865, 0.1065, 0.0946, 0.0856, 0.1104, 0.0726, 0.1189, 0.139, 0.1414, 0.0884, 0.1291, 0.1583, 0.0987, 0.1427, 0.1028, 0.0622, 0.1011, 0.0872, 0.0649, -0.0058, 0.0, 0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0009, -0.0226, -0.0328, 0.0332, 0.0372, 0.055, 0.055, 0.0639, 0.0638, 0.0616, 0.1048, 0.1241, 0.1253, 0.0871, 0.101, 0.1165, 0.1052, 0.1351, 0.1755, 0.2115, 0.1556, 0.1954, 0.1901, 0.2087, 0.2008, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.1752, 0.1367, 0.1239, 0.1122, 0.1122, 0.0834, 0.117, 0.0708, 0.0669, 0.0778, 0.1006, 0.1103, 0.106, 0.0862, 0.0846, 0.082, 0.082, 0.0368, 0.067, 0.1113, 0.1106, 0.0763, 0.0657, 0.067, 0.0302, 0.0644, 0.0432, 0.0436, 0.0041, -0.0177, 0.0167, 0.0321, 0.0516, 0.0592, 0.0315, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0155, 0.0172, 0.0182, 0.0185, -0.0112, 0.0124, 0.0323, 0.0105, -0.0046, -0.0025, -0.0295, 0.0039, 0.003, -0.0188, -0.014, -0.0126, 0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0325, -0.0217, -0.0126, -0.0286, -0.0595, -0.09, -0.0581, -0.0527, -0.0455, -0.0797, -0.1052, -0.1214, -0.0806, -0.0571, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1274, -0.1427, -0.1511, -0.1452, -0.137, -0.1284, -0.0993, -0.0307, -0.0382, -0.0092, -0.0293, -0.0443, -0.0416, -0.0758, -0.0694, -0.0635, -0.0701, -0.078, -0.0562, -0.0335, -0.0293, -0.037, -0.0139, 0.0184, 0.0594, 0.1005]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2000787328265011697", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-16T04:37:26+00:00", "symbol": "ABTC", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$ABTC remains a SELL even though it has crashed 80% since I flagged it as a short on Sept 12. Stay short.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Reiterates SELL on ABTC despite 80% decline; stay short.", "resolved_tickers": ["ABTC"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$ABTC remains a SELL even though it has crashed 80% since I flagged it as a short on Sept 12.  Stay short. The staggering analytical malpractice of @ericjackson on full display for all to behold. $HUT\n\n---\n\n$1.65 last sale $ABTC", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.00640558294684368, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00640558294684368, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00018302473172915334, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00018302473172915334, "ret_p1w": 0.1272727522311463, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.1272727522311463, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.11088842680694544, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.10926884256847935, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01800390966266696, "ret_p1m": 0.06666667629974077, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.06666667629974077, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04673668491347982, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07217063277857949, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "bench_c_p1m": -0.005503956478838723, "ret_p3m": -0.36969698370871373, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.36969698370871373, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.348156743441414, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2675900298500966, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "bench_c_p3m": -0.10210695385861712, "ret_p6m": -0.5030303001841675, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5030303001841675, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.577699325732942, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.46719511770038336, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "bench_c_p6m": -0.035835182483784145, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.06666667629974077, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04673668491347982, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07217063277857949, "price_path": [3.5333, 3.3091, 3.3879, 3.2061, 3.2364, 3.0545, 2.9879, 3.0121, 3.0848, 3.3636, 3.3818, 3.2303, 3.3333, 3.1212, 3.1394, 2.9697, 2.6061, 2.6545, 2.4909, 2.3879, 2.0485, 1.8727, 2.0848, 1.9515, 1.7212, 2.0606, 2.4061, 2.6121, 2.4424, 2.3212, 2.1212, 2.0848, 1.9818, 1.8121, 1.903, 1.7515, 1.8121, 1.9636, 1.9758, 1.9879, 1.8727, 1.9455, 2.0606, 2.0727, 1.8667, 1.7758, 1.6848, 1.6606, 1.6061, 1.5455, 1.5455, 1.5697, 1.1697, 0.3273, 0.4485, 0.4667, 0.3515, 0.2242, 0.2424, 0.1758, 0.1091, 0.0788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0364, 0.0788, 0.1818, 0.1273, 0.1394, 0.1394, 0.1455, 0.097, 0.0424, 0.0303, 0.0303, 0.0788, 0.2242, 0.1939, 0.1576, 0.1576, 0.1091, 0.103, 0.1333, 0.0667, 0.0182, -0.0061, -0.0061, -0.0545, -0.0485, -0.0545, -0.0727, -0.0848, -0.0364, -0.0545, -0.0667, -0.0848, -0.1333, -0.1818, -0.2242, -0.3061, -0.2061, -0.2364, -0.2727, -0.303, -0.303, -0.3152, -0.3152, -0.3394, -0.3697, -0.3818, -0.3939, -0.4091, -0.3818, -0.3636, -0.3455, -0.3818, -0.3818, -0.3758, -0.303, -0.2909, -0.3394, -0.3333, -0.297, -0.3152, -0.3636, -0.3697, -0.3697, -0.3576, -0.3758, -0.3818, -0.4261, -0.4152, -0.4248, -0.4042, -0.4467, -0.4788, -0.5212, -0.44, -0.4436, -0.4491, -0.4491, -0.4636, -0.4715, -0.4158, -0.4291, -0.423, -0.4, -0.3758, -0.3333, -0.3152, -0.2121, -0.2364, -0.2485, -0.1879, -0.2364, -0.2485, -0.2667, -0.2909, -0.3091, -0.303, -0.2667, -0.2909, -0.2545, -0.2424, -0.297, -0.2788, -0.2788, -0.3091, -0.3212, -0.2909, -0.3273, -0.3758, -0.3818, -0.3273, -0.3152, -0.3273, -0.3273, -0.3455, -0.3515, -0.3636, -0.3152, -0.3455, -0.3964, -0.4339, -0.4461, -0.477, -0.4539, -0.483, -0.503]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1968385811898056785", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-17T18:45:23+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish gold in response to dollar plummeting thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@GeorgeGammon You can’t own enough gold.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "URGENT: The Dollar Is Plummeting Right Now...Here's Why https://t.co/N0SsHYJFyD", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "GeorgeGammon", "ret_m1d": 0.007775158345539213, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.007775158345539213, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.006531343017383007, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.006531343017383007, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012438153281562059, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0012438153281562059, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0040063094596702875, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0040063094596702875, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.008678714940097088, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.008678714940097088, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0046724054804268, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0046724054804268, "ret_p1w": 0.018844425558691258, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.018844425558691258, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013151297624336644, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.013151297624336644, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005693127934354614, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005693127934354614, "ret_p1m": 0.17651426171723483, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.17651426171723483, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.17152083841652765, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17152083841652765, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.004993423300707178, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004993423300707178, "ret_p3m": 0.17458523417262328, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17458523417262328, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13903005309104888, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.13903005309104888, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.035555181081574405, "bench_c_p3m": 0.035555181081574405, "ret_p6m": 0.38552394335252127, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.38552394335252127, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3692914324576688, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3692914324576688, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.016232510894852448, "bench_c_p6m": 0.016232510894852448, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.17651426171723483, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.17152083841652765, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17152083841652765, "price_path": [-0.0797, -0.0768, -0.0913, -0.0886, -0.0896, -0.1061, -0.0954, -0.0873, -0.0823, -0.0885, -0.0885, -0.0878, -0.0974, -0.0933, -0.0913, -0.0826, -0.0859, -0.0897, -0.0852, -0.0872, -0.0848, -0.0707, -0.0619, -0.0736, -0.0792, -0.0878, -0.0937, -0.0912, -0.1069, -0.1009, -0.0827, -0.0773, -0.0766, -0.0786, -0.0708, -0.071, -0.0843, -0.0852, -0.0824, -0.0882, -0.0877, -0.0891, -0.0941, -0.0849, -0.0881, -0.0783, -0.0805, -0.0739, -0.072, -0.0651, -0.0561, -0.0561, -0.0338, -0.0262, -0.0305, -0.0176, -0.0064, -0.0086, -0.0051, -0.0066, -0.0046, 0.0058, 0.0078, 0.0, -0.004, 0.0066, 0.024, 0.0282, 0.0188, 0.0231, 0.029, 0.046, 0.0549, 0.0566, 0.0529, 0.0613, 0.0813, 0.0869, 0.1048, 0.0845, 0.0954, 0.122, 0.13, 0.1496, 0.1765, 0.1544, 0.1964, 0.1195, 0.1196, 0.1241, 0.1203, 0.0891, 0.0813, 0.0772, 0.0984, 0.0924, 0.0944, 0.0752, 0.0877, 0.0864, 0.093, 0.1229, 0.1273, 0.1455, 0.1362, 0.1157, 0.1029, 0.1109, 0.1127, 0.1124, 0.1107, 0.1283, 0.1279, 0.137, 0.137, 0.1511, 0.1566, 0.1492, 0.1481, 0.1489, 0.1468, 0.1438, 0.1497, 0.1546, 0.167, 0.1735, 0.1746, 0.1749, 0.1849, 0.1828, 0.1841, 0.2115, 0.2275, 0.2225, 0.2225, 0.2367, 0.1829, 0.1838, 0.1761, 0.1761, 0.1819, 0.213, 0.2262, 0.2144, 0.2211, 0.23, 0.253, 0.2512, 0.264, 0.2563, 0.2502, 0.2502, 0.2975, 0.3164, 0.3407, 0.3592, 0.3791, 0.4129, 0.4677, 0.4716, 0.3204, 0.2676, 0.3482, 0.3472, 0.3113, 0.3516, 0.386, 0.3722, 0.3877, 0.3396, 0.3729, 0.3729, 0.3301, 0.36, 0.3638, 0.3907, 0.4283, 0.4085, 0.4049, 0.417, 0.4356, 0.4541, 0.3893, 0.4001, 0.3833, 0.4052, 0.4023, 0.4181, 0.4133, 0.3855]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1981383999235784774", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-23T15:35:32+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "just as one realistically expects to lose on their purchase of a long shot million dollar jackpot lottery ticket, the same should be said about $OPEN IMHO. No emotion here; just my assessment of the investment merits of $OPEN", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: compares it to a lottery ticket with poor odds; expects investors to lose money on the position.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "My post was impersonal. Instead, just as one realistically expects  to lose on their purchase of a long shot million dollar jackpot lottery ticket, the same should be said about $OPEN IMHO. No emotion here; just my assessment of the investment merits of $OPEN. If one loses money on such a lottery ticket without having properly studied the odds, then they “deserve” what they get. Ditto for $OPEN.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 I have an honest question for you.  What is it that I, have personally done to \"deserve\" to lose everything??  That's a pretty harsh post, just trying to understand what great evil it is I have committed.👇", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "LloydReeves13B", "ret_m1d": -0.02987198177518935, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.02987198177518935, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02397688462092107, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03081300621095484, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005895097154268281, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0009410244357654918, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.13371259634840427, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.13371259634840427, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.12554004165392385, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.13018320182096077, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.008172554694480416, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003529394527443497, "ret_p1w": 0.04409671885173272, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04409671885173272, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03208345096675158, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.082214474624561, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012013267884981138, "bench_c_p1w": -0.03811775577282828, "ret_p1m": -0.03982933164321811, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03982933164321811, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.020879071004417882, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0021822723860468463, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.01895026063880023, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03764705925717127, "ret_p3m": -0.09103845294767088, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.09103845294767088, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10268271041543664, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07580218734767064, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.011644257467765762, "bench_c_p3m": -0.015236265600000243, "ret_p6m": -0.24751069644744117, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24751069644744117, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3106635130238875, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.31264825676695085, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06315281657644634, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06513756031950968, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03982933164321811, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.020879071004417882, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0021822723860468463, "price_path": [-0.6671, -0.7084, -0.7055, -0.7383, -0.7013, -0.6501, -0.6415, -0.7297, -0.7368, -0.7226, -0.6714, -0.6486, -0.6558, -0.5676, -0.5491, -0.4623, -0.4851, -0.542, -0.4879, -0.2873, -0.3542, -0.3314, -0.4282, -0.3926, -0.367, -0.367, -0.276, -0.2703, -0.1522, -0.0541, -0.1408, -0.1309, -0.1664, 0.4964, 0.2902, 0.3506, 0.2688, 0.4523, 0.4139, 0.3613, 0.192, 0.0085, 0.1707, 0.293, 0.2532, 0.1664, 0.1337, 0.1465, 0.1394, 0.1536, 0.3201, 0.3215, 0.2077, 0.1579, 0.0768, 0.0341, 0.0868, 0.0498, 0.0114, 0.0185, 0.0484, -0.01, -0.0299, 0.0, 0.1337, 0.1607, 0.1337, 0.0882, 0.0441, 0.1053, 0.0797, -0.0156, 0.0284, -0.0669, -0.0669, 0.1337, 0.2063, 0.3329, 0.2176, 0.155, 0.1152, 0.0697, -0.0484, -0.1238, -0.0398, 0.0939, 0.101, 0.1067, 0.1067, 0.0953, 0.0156, -0.0057, -0.0128, 0.0782, 0.0171, 0.0028, 0.0541, -0.0043, 0.0028, -0.0669, -0.0797, -0.0427, -0.1294, -0.1067, -0.0953, -0.0868, -0.1081, -0.1067, -0.1067, -0.1451, -0.1707, -0.1693, -0.1707, -0.1707, -0.1366, -0.101, -0.0142, -0.1294, -0.0853, 0.037, -0.0014, -0.037, -0.0555, -0.1038, -0.0512, -0.0512, -0.091, -0.0782, -0.0868, -0.1451, -0.165, -0.1735, -0.1807, -0.2063, -0.2674, -0.3144, -0.2703, -0.2888, -0.3314, -0.3058, -0.2973, -0.3329, -0.3229, -0.377, -0.3677, -0.3677, -0.3841, -0.3414, -0.3385, -0.2888, -0.3201, -0.2731, -0.2916, -0.2304, -0.229, -0.2817, -0.293, -0.3058, -0.2632, -0.2888, -0.2774, -0.2873, -0.2504, -0.3115, -0.2959, -0.2632, -0.2091, -0.2489, -0.2688, -0.3016, -0.2589, -0.2632, -0.2745, -0.303, -0.3172, -0.3698, -0.3343, -0.3499, -0.3257, -0.3257, -0.3442, -0.3528, -0.34, -0.3869, -0.3855, -0.3798, -0.3585, -0.3144, -0.2504, -0.2475]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2001702244039725483", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-18T17:12:59+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The prospective increase in the float of $BETR will be enormous and have a MASSIVE negative impact on the share price of $BETR", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Float expansion will massively weigh on BETR share price.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The prospective increase in the float of $BETR will be enormous and have a MASSIVE negative impact on the share price of $BETR\n\nThank you for your attention to this matter. @ericjackson with yet more analytical malpractice!!! https://t.co/oARDllhMqQ", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009067715684966782, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009067715684966782, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0015730471859728423, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0015730471859728423, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.06574099276385781, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06574099276385781, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0748044989874449, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0748044989874449, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "ret_p1w": 0.04845562595948438, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04845562595948438, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.024877209454856608, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.024877209454856608, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "ret_p1m": -0.03882127262794266, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03882127262794266, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06429739600035878, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06429739600035878, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "bench_c_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "ret_p3m": -0.11533016425573628, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11533016425573628, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10986374957348932, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10986374957348932, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "bench_c_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "ret_p6m": -0.24879570583355726, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24879570583355726, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3515402484707366, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3515402484707366, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03882127262794266, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06429739600035878, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06429739600035878, "price_path": [0.4163, 0.9198, 0.8988, 0.586, 0.5024, 0.6659, 0.5908, 0.6104, 0.6206, 0.7059, 0.638, 0.7115, 0.7631, 0.69, 0.6121, 0.4398, 0.4146, 0.6965, 0.6325, 0.7951, 1.3063, 1.1221, 0.8682, 1.4389, 1.2533, 1.2244, 1.1527, 1.2074, 1.0473, 1.0745, 1.0669, 0.8388, 0.7348, 0.7166, 0.6248, 0.8722, 0.798, 0.6764, 0.6268, 0.5939, 0.4914, 0.5463, 0.3769, 0.2539, 0.2766, 0.295, 0.2893, 0.3358, 0.3358, 0.3721, 0.2785, 0.2389, 0.2576, 0.4154, 0.2876, 0.3219, 0.3485, 0.4347, 0.376, 0.1836, 0.1227, 0.1017, -0.0091, 0.0, -0.0657, 0.036, 0.0179, 0.0485, 0.0485, -0.0102, -0.0332, -0.0657, -0.0768, -0.0768, -0.0156, 0.0286, -0.0077, -0.0428, 0.0609, 0.1298, 0.0859, 0.1006, 0.0691, 0.0394, -0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0969, -0.0745, -0.0898, -0.1119, -0.1947, -0.1318, -0.0966, -0.1065, -0.1411, -0.2386, -0.2111, -0.2199, -0.2839, -0.244, -0.2091, -0.1901, -0.1751, -0.1731, -0.1114, -0.1114, -0.1148, -0.0961, -0.1029, -0.1848, -0.2329, -0.195, -0.1235, -0.0581, -0.0677, -0.0082, -0.0674, -0.1097, -0.0536, -0.0986, 0.0113, 0.083, 0.1315, 0.0388, -0.0238, -0.1867, -0.1153, -0.1933, -0.1785, -0.2261, -0.1785, -0.1899, -0.1097, -0.0615, -0.1312, -0.0538, 0.0094, -0.0181, 0.0657, 0.0657, 0.1437, 0.2706, -0.0081, -0.0864, -0.072, -0.006, -0.0153, 0.0839, 0.0578, 0.1683, 0.3454, 0.3191, 0.3004, 0.1649, 0.2054, 0.1522, 0.1952, 0.1085, 0.1655, 0.2576, 0.178, 0.2023, 0.2097, -0.1352, -0.1479, -0.1201, -0.1391, -0.1782, -0.1754, -0.2349, -0.2902, -0.2842, -0.3103, -0.2907, -0.2743, -0.2743, -0.2499, -0.2375, -0.1984, -0.1734, -0.178, -0.1969, -0.2516, -0.2176, -0.274, -0.2788, -0.2905, -0.3276, -0.3171, -0.2488]}
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{"unit_id": "quote:1970248573238308908", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-22T22:07:19+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is valued at 20x revenues and should be at $1.50. STAY FOCUSED.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: valued at 20x revenues, argues fair value is $1.50; urges bears to stay focused against bull narrative.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Stay focused on the fact that $OPEN is valued at 20x revenues and should be at $1.50. STAY FOCUSED. @ericjackson", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "📣 $OPEN Short sellers scream the loudest when they know they’re on the wrong side. @MartinShkreli @gnoble79 @CitronResearch\n\n📉 History shows they’ve been wrong on several key innovators many times before. \n\n🏠 $OPEN is no different to me. \n\n🤝 #Opendoor is going to transform https://t.co/EDkRihTXMY", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.18194639408888724, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.18194639408888724, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.17647303658561797, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.1898035741777897, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005473357503269272, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00785718008890246, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.1607897553052, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.1607897553052, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.16397132703893902, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.17102778320642764, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.003181571733739008, "bench_c_p1d": -0.010238027901227631, "ret_p1w": 0.1241184229428478, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.1241184229428478, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.11964035631997305, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.12102312497041479, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0044780666228747545, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00309529797243302, "ret_p1m": -0.038081801849885966, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.038081801849885966, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.04500253462374937, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.050938920862717674, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.006920732773863403, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012857119012831708, "ret_p3m": -0.10296191866893434, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.10296191866893434, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1322001425525936, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0631999978554123, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.029238223883659265, "bench_c_p3m": -0.039761920813522034, "ret_p6m": -0.2552891260684784, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2552891260684784, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2555520996238614, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.2666994415464323, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0002629735553829615, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011410315477953903, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.038081801849885966, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.04500253462374937, "alpha_c_stated": 0.050938920862717674, "price_path": [-0.9241, -0.9213, -0.9248, -0.9203, -0.9202, -0.914, -0.914, -0.9117, -0.8968, -0.8961, -0.8755, -0.8901, -0.8729, -0.8533, -0.7898, -0.7673, -0.6827, -0.5472, -0.5938, -0.677, -0.6587, -0.6417, -0.67, -0.7109, -0.708, -0.7405, -0.7038, -0.653, -0.6446, -0.732, -0.7391, -0.725, -0.6742, -0.6516, -0.6587, -0.5712, -0.5529, -0.4669, -0.4894, -0.5458, -0.4922, -0.2934, -0.3597, -0.3371, -0.433, -0.3977, -0.3724, -0.3724, -0.2821, -0.2764, -0.1594, -0.0621, -0.1481, -0.1382, -0.1735, 0.4838, 0.2793, 0.3392, 0.2581, 0.4401, 0.402, 0.3498, 0.1819, 0.0, 0.1608, 0.2821, 0.2426, 0.1566, 0.1241, 0.1368, 0.1298, 0.1439, 0.3089, 0.3103, 0.1975, 0.1481, 0.0677, 0.0254, 0.0776, 0.0409, 0.0028, 0.0099, 0.0395, -0.0183, -0.0381, -0.0085, 0.1241, 0.1509, 0.1241, 0.079, 0.0353, 0.0959, 0.0705, -0.024, 0.0197, -0.0748, -0.0748, 0.1241, 0.1961, 0.3216, 0.2073, 0.1453, 0.1058, 0.0606, -0.0564, -0.1312, -0.048, 0.0846, 0.0917, 0.0973, 0.0973, 0.086, 0.0071, -0.0141, -0.0212, 0.0691, 0.0085, -0.0056, 0.0451, -0.0127, -0.0056, -0.0748, -0.0874, -0.0508, -0.1368, -0.1142, -0.103, -0.0945, -0.1157, -0.1142, -0.1142, -0.1523, -0.1777, -0.1763, -0.1777, -0.1777, -0.1439, -0.1086, -0.0226, -0.1368, -0.0931, 0.0282, -0.0099, -0.0451, -0.0635, -0.1114, -0.0592, -0.0592, -0.0987, -0.086, -0.0945, -0.1523, -0.1721, -0.1805, -0.1876, -0.213, -0.2736, -0.3202, -0.2764, -0.2948, -0.3371, -0.3117, -0.3032, -0.3385, -0.3286, -0.3822, -0.3731, -0.3731, -0.3893, -0.347, -0.3441, -0.2948, -0.3258, -0.2793, -0.2976, -0.237, -0.2355, -0.2877, -0.299, -0.3117, -0.2694, -0.2948, -0.2835, -0.2934, -0.2567, -0.3173, -0.3018, -0.2694, -0.2158, -0.2553]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2001703672938406016", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-18T17:18:40+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The enormous increase in the float of $BETR will significantly impact the share price.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Float dilution from ATM program will weigh on BETR share price.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@danielsethlewis @vishalgarg1_0 @Mabiverse123 @KingKiTo33 @ericjackson @gnoble The enormous increase in the float of $BETR will significantly impact the share price. https://t.co/8h79a6BNBv", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @vishalgarg1_0 @Mabiverse123 @KingKiTo33 @ericjackson @gnoble — I can address this with some direct perspective, as this is the stock I bid for directly with the company. I think you are betting on near term technicals vs. dramatically shifting fundamentals. \n\nTechnicals: In September, the company disclosed an ATM program of up to", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "danielsethlewis", "ret_m1d": -0.009067715684966782, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009067715684966782, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0015730471859728423, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0015730471859728423, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.06574099276385781, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06574099276385781, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0748044989874449, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0748044989874449, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "ret_p1w": 0.04845562595948438, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04845562595948438, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.024877209454856608, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.024877209454856608, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "ret_p1m": -0.03882127262794266, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03882127262794266, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06429739600035878, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06429739600035878, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "bench_c_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "ret_p3m": -0.11533016425573628, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11533016425573628, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10986374957348932, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10986374957348932, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "bench_c_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "ret_p6m": -0.24879570583355726, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24879570583355726, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3515402484707366, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3515402484707366, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03882127262794266, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06429739600035878, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06429739600035878, "price_path": [0.4163, 0.9198, 0.8988, 0.586, 0.5024, 0.6659, 0.5908, 0.6104, 0.6206, 0.7059, 0.638, 0.7115, 0.7631, 0.69, 0.6121, 0.4398, 0.4146, 0.6965, 0.6325, 0.7951, 1.3063, 1.1221, 0.8682, 1.4389, 1.2533, 1.2244, 1.1527, 1.2074, 1.0473, 1.0745, 1.0669, 0.8388, 0.7348, 0.7166, 0.6248, 0.8722, 0.798, 0.6764, 0.6268, 0.5939, 0.4914, 0.5463, 0.3769, 0.2539, 0.2766, 0.295, 0.2893, 0.3358, 0.3358, 0.3721, 0.2785, 0.2389, 0.2576, 0.4154, 0.2876, 0.3219, 0.3485, 0.4347, 0.376, 0.1836, 0.1227, 0.1017, -0.0091, 0.0, -0.0657, 0.036, 0.0179, 0.0485, 0.0485, -0.0102, -0.0332, -0.0657, -0.0768, -0.0768, -0.0156, 0.0286, -0.0077, -0.0428, 0.0609, 0.1298, 0.0859, 0.1006, 0.0691, 0.0394, -0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0969, -0.0745, -0.0898, -0.1119, -0.1947, -0.1318, -0.0966, -0.1065, -0.1411, -0.2386, -0.2111, -0.2199, -0.2839, -0.244, -0.2091, -0.1901, -0.1751, -0.1731, -0.1114, -0.1114, -0.1148, -0.0961, -0.1029, -0.1848, -0.2329, -0.195, -0.1235, -0.0581, -0.0677, -0.0082, -0.0674, -0.1097, -0.0536, -0.0986, 0.0113, 0.083, 0.1315, 0.0388, -0.0238, -0.1867, -0.1153, -0.1933, -0.1785, -0.2261, -0.1785, -0.1899, -0.1097, -0.0615, -0.1312, -0.0538, 0.0094, -0.0181, 0.0657, 0.0657, 0.1437, 0.2706, -0.0081, -0.0864, -0.072, -0.006, -0.0153, 0.0839, 0.0578, 0.1683, 0.3454, 0.3191, 0.3004, 0.1649, 0.2054, 0.1522, 0.1952, 0.1085, 0.1655, 0.2576, 0.178, 0.2023, 0.2097, -0.1352, -0.1479, -0.1201, -0.1391, -0.1782, -0.1754, -0.2349, -0.2902, -0.2842, -0.3103, -0.2907, -0.2743, -0.2743, -0.2499, -0.2375, -0.1984, -0.1734, -0.178, -0.1969, -0.2516, -0.2176, -0.274, -0.2788, -0.2905, -0.3276, -0.3171, -0.2488]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1967666468411281699", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-15T19:06:58+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I make the case as to why I would avoid $OPEN starting at 1:15", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author makes the case to avoid OPEN; decisive bearish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I make the case as to why I would avoid $OPEN starting at 1:15.\nListen to @ericjackson \nprevaricate, interrupt, deflect, change the subject, project and insult. Shots fired. @Realtor_Stocks @m3_melody @UnicusResearch", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "#FinanceDaily 8am ET. Let's go https://t.co/D8G67Bo5GM", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.04476042083805021, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04476042083805021, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.039464838765678634, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.045942607545745084, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005295582072371574, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0011821867076948767, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.060558169162239994, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.060558169162239994, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.059181284208979945, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0546480752450067, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0013768849532600491, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0059100939172332945, "ret_p1w": -0.11743020374481139, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11743020374481139, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.12920011437334367, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.11005543721782352, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011769910628532276, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007374766526987875, "ret_p1m": -0.19536598645933112, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17917743588908375, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.00477530518646585, "bench_c_p1m": -0.016188550570247373, "ret_p3m": -0.2575039204100267, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2575039204100267, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.30315420208972554, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22940478278500354, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04565028167969887, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02809913762502314, "ret_p6m": -0.4723538399930335, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4723538399930335, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5028482094803816, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5059291739360562, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.030494369487348072, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0335753339430227, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17917743588908375, "price_path": [-0.9389, -0.9389, -0.9437, -0.9442, -0.9421, -0.9461, -0.9433, -0.9412, -0.9439, -0.9405, -0.9404, -0.9358, -0.9358, -0.9341, -0.9229, -0.9224, -0.907, -0.918, -0.9051, -0.8905, -0.8431, -0.8262, -0.763, -0.6619, -0.6967, -0.7588, -0.7451, -0.7325, -0.7536, -0.7841, -0.782, -0.8062, -0.7788, -0.7409, -0.7346, -0.7999, -0.8052, -0.7946, -0.7567, -0.7399, -0.7451, -0.6798, -0.6661, -0.6019, -0.6187, -0.6609, -0.6209, -0.4724, -0.5219, -0.505, -0.5766, -0.5503, -0.5313, -0.5313, -0.4639, -0.4597, -0.3723, -0.2996, -0.3639, -0.3565, -0.3828, 0.108, -0.0448, 0.0, -0.0606, 0.0753, 0.0469, 0.0079, -0.1174, -0.2533, -0.1332, -0.0427, -0.0721, -0.1364, -0.1606, -0.1511, -0.1564, -0.1459, -0.0226, -0.0216, -0.1058, -0.1427, -0.2027, -0.2343, -0.1954, -0.2227, -0.2512, -0.2459, -0.2238, -0.267, -0.2817, -0.2596, -0.1606, -0.1406, -0.1606, -0.1943, -0.227, -0.1817, -0.2006, -0.2712, -0.2385, -0.3091, -0.3091, -0.1606, -0.1069, -0.0132, -0.0985, -0.1448, -0.1743, -0.208, -0.2954, -0.3512, -0.2891, -0.1901, -0.1848, -0.1806, -0.1806, -0.189, -0.248, -0.2638, -0.2691, -0.2017, -0.247, -0.2575, -0.2196, -0.2628, -0.2575, -0.3091, -0.3186, -0.2912, -0.3555, -0.3386, -0.3302, -0.3239, -0.3397, -0.3386, -0.3386, -0.367, -0.386, -0.3849, -0.386, -0.386, -0.3607, -0.3344, -0.2701, -0.3555, -0.3228, -0.2322, -0.2607, -0.287, -0.3007, -0.3365, -0.2975, -0.2975, -0.327, -0.3175, -0.3239, -0.367, -0.3818, -0.3881, -0.3934, -0.4123, -0.4576, -0.4924, -0.4597, -0.4734, -0.505, -0.486, -0.4797, -0.5061, -0.4987, -0.5387, -0.5319, -0.5319, -0.544, -0.5124, -0.5103, -0.4734, -0.4966, -0.4618, -0.4755, -0.4302, -0.4292, -0.4681, -0.4766, -0.486, -0.4544, -0.4734, -0.465, -0.4724]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1987595389516624103", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-09T18:57:23+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "unit sales are falling, they may post quarterly losses, and that the Robotaxi may not receive necessary approvals", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: falling unit sales, possible quarterly losses, and Robotaxi approval risk may finally close gap to fundamentals.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@IBD_ECarson I certainly agree that the share price has been divorced from fundamentals for a long time. The reason I think that this may change is that unit sales are falling, they may post quarterly losses, and that the Robotaxi may not receive necessary approvals.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Repeating this warning for bears who argue $TSLA has been divorced from Tesla fundamentals for a long time. Even assuming you're right - I'm sympathetic - there's no particular reason why this would end *now.*", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "IBD_ECarson", "ret_m1d": -0.035285182007056215, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.035285182007056215, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.01992065572893076, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.022312227090117265, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.015364526278125457, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01297295491693895, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.01260026442672324, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01260026442672324, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.014889622281261672, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.015069244789544745, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002289357854538432, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0024689803628215046, "ret_p1w": -0.08155334695016492, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08155334695016492, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05841123535485182, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.038700943925977116, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.023142111595313097, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0428524030241878, "ret_p1m": -0.00013475632170623086, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.00013475632170623086, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0024828156596943263, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.01241968924011927, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0023480593379880954, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0125544455618255, "ret_p3m": -0.1078544086120119, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1078544086120119, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10518701320405732, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09331533580134099, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.002667395407954576, "bench_c_p3m": -0.014539072810670906, "ret_p6m": -0.12546327626341425, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12546327626341425, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.19362951597462463, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11760949694407175, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06816623971121039, "bench_c_p6m": -0.007853779319342502, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.00013475632170623086, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0024828156596943263, "alpha_c_stated": -0.01241968924011927, "price_path": [-0.2377, -0.2463, -0.2576, -0.2472, -0.2604, -0.2725, -0.281, -0.2363, -0.2215, -0.2101, -0.2148, -0.2229, -0.2501, -0.2501, -0.2602, -0.2496, -0.2397, -0.212, -0.222, -0.2207, -0.2189, -0.1716, -0.1107, -0.079, -0.053, -0.0435, -0.0637, -0.043, -0.0248, -0.0435, -0.0055, -0.0491, -0.0108, -0.0045, -0.0011, 0.032, -0.0207, -0.0346, 0.018, -0.0273, -0.0147, -0.0218, -0.0713, -0.021, -0.0359, -0.0226, -0.037, -0.0133, 0.0049, -0.0059, -0.0141, 0.0084, -0.0259, 0.0161, 0.0344, 0.0366, -0.0115, 0.0254, 0.052, -0.0022, 0.0378, 0.0015, -0.0353, 0.0, -0.0126, -0.0329, -0.0971, -0.0918, -0.0816, -0.0988, -0.0926, -0.1123, -0.1216, -0.0617, -0.058, -0.0419, -0.0419, -0.0338, -0.0339, -0.0359, 0.0034, 0.0209, 0.0219, -0.0127, -0.0001, 0.014, 0.0037, 0.0308, 0.0676, 0.1003, 0.0495, 0.0857, 0.0808, 0.0977, 0.0906, 0.0902, 0.0902, 0.0673, 0.0324, 0.0207, 0.0101, 0.0101, -0.0161, 0.0145, -0.0276, -0.031, -0.0212, -0.0005, 0.0084, 0.0044, -0.0135, -0.015, -0.0174, -0.0174, -0.0584, -0.031, 0.0093, 0.0086, -0.0225, -0.0322, -0.0309, -0.0644, -0.0333, -0.0526, -0.0523, -0.0881, -0.1079, -0.0766, -0.0627, -0.045, -0.0381, -0.0632, -0.0624, -0.0624, -0.0777, -0.0762, -0.0753, -0.075, -0.102, -0.0805, -0.0625, -0.0823, -0.096, -0.0941, -0.1186, -0.0882, -0.0891, -0.1089, -0.1046, -0.1033, -0.084, -0.1128, -0.1214, -0.1116, -0.1032, -0.1178, -0.1458, -0.1736, -0.1446, -0.1397, -0.1331, -0.1642, -0.1873, -0.202, -0.165, -0.1437, -0.1901, -0.1901, -0.2076, -0.2214, -0.2291, -0.2237, -0.2162, -0.2085, -0.182, -0.1197, -0.1265, -0.1002, -0.1184, -0.1321, -0.1296, -0.1606, -0.1548, -0.1495, -0.1554, -0.1627, -0.1428, -0.1222, -0.1184, -0.1255]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2004650996631327007", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-26T20:30:16+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The stock is wildly overpriced IMHO. $OPEN is valued at 6x book and 20x estimated 2025 revenues. I estimate fair value at around $1.50.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: wildly overvalued at 6x book/20x revenues, fair value ~$1.50, loses money every year, lacks fundamental institutional sponsorship.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN has little ownership by fundamentally oriented institutions. \nA few index funds and quant/trading shops own the stock, but there is not a lot of information content in that. The lack of significant sponsorship from fundamental shops should be a major red flag for all concerned. The obvious conclusion is that they do not think the stock is attractive. \n\nDespite what management says, the company remains an asset heavy, low margin house flipper. They have lost money EVERY single year since inception. They will again lose money in 2026. \n\nThe stock is wildly overpriced IMHO. \n$OPEN is valued at 6x book and 20x estimated 2025 revenues (one should look at gross profits here). I estimate fair value at around $1.50.\n\nIgnore the narrative. \n\nInstead focus on the fundamentals.\n\n$OPEN army, you were repeatedly warned about @ericjackson \n\nHe is guilty of analytical  malpractice. \n\nHe bagged you. \n\nYou were exit liquidity.\n\nNeither Eric nor Drake will save you. \n\nThe momentum is long gone. \n\nYou are on your own. \n\nDo you really know what you own? \n\nTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. \n\n@dayetweets @m3_melody \n@RHouseResearch @sweetdaddyZ", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04492511990748249, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04492511990748249, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04482369995706725, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04689949689024897, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010141995041523799, "bench_c_m1d": -0.001974376982766479, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02995013283206982, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02995013283206982, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.026386479324575052, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03266479362567176, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0035636535074947684, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002714660793601942, "ret_p1w": 0.009983351163815879, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.009983351163815879, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.020326586142018988, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.01343839137509939, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010343234978203109, "bench_c_p1w": -0.003455040211283511, "ret_p1m": -0.023294565389526012, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.023294565389526012, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02680026463964058, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04057005326648233, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.003505699250114569, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01727548787695632, "ret_p3m": -0.15141435766942957, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15141435766942957, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10549840840891522, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.151924420194395, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.045915949260514344, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0005100625249654378, "ret_p6m": -0.28785356958220176, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.28785356958220176, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.37192581969713245, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3911163253042238, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08407225011493069, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10326275572202204, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.023294565389526012, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02680026463964058, "alpha_c_stated": 0.04057005326648233, "price_path": [0.3261, 0.3411, 0.3328, 0.3494, 0.5441, 0.5458, 0.4126, 0.3544, 0.2596, 0.2097, 0.2712, 0.228, 0.183, 0.1913, 0.2263, 0.1581, 0.1348, 0.1697, 0.3261, 0.3577, 0.3261, 0.2729, 0.2213, 0.2928, 0.2629, 0.1514, 0.203, 0.0915, 0.0915, 0.3261, 0.411, 0.5591, 0.4243, 0.3511, 0.3045, 0.2512, 0.1131, 0.025, 0.1231, 0.2795, 0.2879, 0.2945, 0.2945, 0.2812, 0.188, 0.1631, 0.1547, 0.2612, 0.1897, 0.173, 0.2329, 0.1647, 0.173, 0.0915, 0.0765, 0.1198, 0.0183, 0.0449, 0.0582, 0.0682, 0.0433, 0.0449, 0.0449, 0.0, -0.03, -0.0283, -0.03, -0.03, 0.01, 0.0516, 0.1531, 0.0183, 0.0699, 0.213, 0.1681, 0.1265, 0.1048, 0.0483, 0.1098, 0.1098, 0.0632, 0.0782, 0.0682, 0.0, -0.0233, -0.0333, -0.0416, -0.0715, -0.1431, -0.198, -0.1464, -0.1681, -0.218, -0.188, -0.178, -0.2196, -0.208, -0.2712, -0.2604, -0.2604, -0.2795, -0.2296, -0.2263, -0.1681, -0.2047, -0.1498, -0.1714, -0.0998, -0.0982, -0.1597, -0.173, -0.188, -0.1381, -0.1681, -0.1547, -0.1664, -0.1231, -0.1947, -0.1764, -0.1381, -0.0749, -0.1215, -0.1448, -0.183, -0.1331, -0.1381, -0.1514, -0.1847, -0.2013, -0.2629, -0.2213, -0.2396, -0.2113, -0.2113, -0.2329, -0.2429, -0.228, -0.2829, -0.2812, -0.2745, -0.2496, -0.198, -0.1231, -0.1198, -0.1098, -0.0932, -0.0965, -0.1314, -0.0832, -0.1032, -0.0882, -0.0715, -0.1048, -0.0948, -0.1464, -0.1298, -0.0915, -0.1148, -0.1664, -0.193, -0.2163, -0.2379, -0.2562, -0.2712, -0.2879, -0.2845, -0.2679, -0.2396, -0.2463, -0.2463, -0.2546, -0.2097, -0.1564, -0.1614, -0.1165, -0.0998, -0.1897, -0.1764, -0.2646, -0.2829, -0.2779, -0.2546, -0.2562, -0.2612, -0.2329, -0.2097, -0.2596, -0.2562, -0.2562, -0.2879]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1983963199507722680", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-30T18:24:21+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The stock price is the product. $TSLA", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: Musk excels at hype but not cash flow/profits; stock price is the product (implying it's disconnected from fundamentals).", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TRUTH. @elonmusk knows how to generate press releases and hype, but cash flow and profits - not so much. The stock price is the product. $TSLA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "\"it's questionable whether $TSLA will even be able to hit the lowball expansion figures Musk disclosed to $TSLA shareholders last week\" - @theinformation https://t.co/m4wKx8rabP", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04864804218401564, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04864804218401564, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03752773183933167, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02554646168746677, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01112031034468397, "bench_c_m1d": 0.023101580496548868, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03740057084027071, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03740057084027071, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03412034904962602, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010962055251686476, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0032802217906446884, "bench_c_p1d": 0.026438515588584233, "ret_p1w": 0.013201539372910576, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.013201539372910576, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.027205033955149394, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.005757627450555081, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.014003494582238818, "bench_c_p1w": 0.007443911922355495, "ret_p1m": -0.022563036896313116, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.022563036896313116, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02779956934811334, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03415667655907073, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.005236532451800224, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011593639662757615, "ret_p3m": -0.020904367369782184, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.020904367369782184, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.04696237830397543, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07273876229599119, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.026058010934193243, "bench_c_p3m": 0.051834394926209004, "ret_p6m": -0.1449670925374641, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1449670925374641, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.20112102071983406, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.16455318229756377, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05615392818236997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.01958608976009968, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.022563036896313116, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02779956934811334, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03415667655907073, "price_path": [-0.2973, -0.2985, -0.2731, -0.2677, -0.251, -0.2297, -0.2255, -0.2289, -0.2375, -0.2489, -0.2384, -0.2517, -0.264, -0.2726, -0.2274, -0.2125, -0.2009, -0.2056, -0.2139, -0.2414, -0.2414, -0.2516, -0.2409, -0.2308, -0.2028, -0.2129, -0.2116, -0.2097, -0.162, -0.1003, -0.0683, -0.042, -0.0324, -0.0528, -0.0319, -0.0134, -0.0324, 0.0061, -0.038, 0.0007, 0.0071, 0.0105, 0.044, -0.0093, -0.0233, 0.0299, -0.0159, -0.0032, -0.0104, -0.0605, -0.0095, -0.0247, -0.0112, -0.0258, -0.0018, 0.0167, 0.0057, -0.0026, 0.0202, -0.0145, 0.028, 0.0465, 0.0486, 0.0, 0.0374, 0.0642, 0.0095, 0.0499, 0.0132, -0.024, 0.0117, -0.0011, -0.0216, -0.0866, -0.0812, -0.0708, -0.0883, -0.082, -0.102, -0.1114, -0.0507, -0.047, -0.0307, -0.0307, -0.0226, -0.0226, -0.0247, 0.0151, 0.0328, 0.0339, -0.0012, 0.0115, 0.0258, 0.0154, 0.0429, 0.08, 0.1131, 0.0617, 0.0983, 0.0934, 0.1105, 0.1033, 0.1029, 0.1029, 0.0797, 0.0444, 0.0326, 0.0219, 0.0219, -0.0046, 0.0263, -0.0162, -0.0197, -0.0098, 0.0112, 0.0201, 0.0161, -0.002, -0.0035, -0.0059, -0.0059, -0.0474, -0.0197, 0.021, 0.0204, -0.0111, -0.0209, -0.0196, -0.0535, -0.022, -0.0416, -0.0412, -0.0775, -0.0975, -0.0659, -0.0518, -0.0338, -0.0269, -0.0523, -0.0515, -0.0515, -0.067, -0.0654, -0.0645, -0.0643, -0.0915, -0.0698, -0.0516, -0.0716, -0.0854, -0.0836, -0.1083, -0.0776, -0.0785, -0.0985, -0.0941, -0.0928, -0.0733, -0.1025, -0.1111, -0.1012, -0.0928, -0.1075, -0.1359, -0.1639, -0.1346, -0.1297, -0.123, -0.1545, -0.1778, -0.1927, -0.1553, -0.1337, -0.1807, -0.1807, -0.1983, -0.2123, -0.2201, -0.2147, -0.2071, -0.1992, -0.1725, -0.1094, -0.1163, -0.0897, -0.1082, -0.122, -0.1195, -0.1508, -0.145]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1990871136121323613", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-18T19:54:02+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Things may bounce, but ultimately going much lower. $OPEN $TSLA $RGTI $OKLO among many others.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on OPEN, TSLA, RGTI, OKLO; any bounce is temporary, all headed much lower.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@LloydReeves13B @nejatian @UnicusResearch @m3_melody @ericjackson @dayetweets @APompliano @rabois Win some, lose some. Things may bounce, but ultimately going much lower. $OPEN $TSLA $RGTI $OKLO among many others.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @nejatian @UnicusResearch @m3_melody @ericjackson @dayetweets @APompliano @rabois Where have you been George, missed the banter.  As a short I'm assuming your bags are bursting after the past week.  Don't judge me if I try and take a little of that back.  Law of the jungle and all that 👍", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "LloydReeves13B", "ret_m1d": 0.042553214424603025, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.042553214424603025, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03408454497737412, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.046226966163354866, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008468669447228905, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0036737517387518404, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.11037233056000528, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.11037233056000528, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.1142355072032819, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.10253487841584685, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0038631766432766224, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00783745214415843, "ret_p1w": 0.029255291323091903, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.029255291323091903, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.006621640850515753, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.017989061773509007, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02263365047257615, "bench_c_p1w": 0.011266229549582896, "ret_p1m": -0.186170225919993, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.186170225919993, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20331966846498328, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1837210580941584, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01714944254499029, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0024491678258345972, "ret_p3m": -0.4089095501415515, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4089095501415515, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4447907750806893, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.485946208622584, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03588122493913781, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07703665848103247, "ret_p6m": -0.3909574554092261, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3909574554092261, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5219365407772627, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4929306593991809, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1309790853680366, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1019732039899548, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.186170225919993, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20331966846498328, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1837210580941584, "price_path": [-0.5213, -0.3338, -0.3963, -0.375, -0.4654, -0.4322, -0.4082, -0.4082, -0.3231, -0.3178, -0.2074, -0.1157, -0.1968, -0.1875, -0.2207, 0.3989, 0.2061, 0.2626, 0.1862, 0.3577, 0.3218, 0.2726, 0.1144, -0.0572, 0.0944, 0.2088, 0.1715, 0.0904, 0.0598, 0.0718, 0.0652, 0.0785, 0.234, 0.2354, 0.129, 0.0824, 0.0066, -0.0332, 0.016, -0.0186, -0.0545, -0.0479, -0.0199, -0.0745, -0.0931, -0.0652, 0.0598, 0.0851, 0.0598, 0.0173, -0.0239, 0.0332, 0.0093, -0.0798, -0.0386, -0.1277, -0.1277, 0.0598, 0.1277, 0.246, 0.1383, 0.0798, 0.0426, 0.0, -0.1104, -0.1809, -0.1024, 0.0226, 0.0293, 0.0346, 0.0346, 0.0239, -0.0505, -0.0705, -0.0771, 0.008, -0.0492, -0.0625, -0.0146, -0.0691, -0.0625, -0.1277, -0.1396, -0.1051, -0.1862, -0.1649, -0.1543, -0.1463, -0.1662, -0.1649, -0.1649, -0.2008, -0.2247, -0.2234, -0.2247, -0.2247, -0.1928, -0.1596, -0.0785, -0.1862, -0.1449, -0.0306, -0.0665, -0.0997, -0.117, -0.1622, -0.113, -0.113, -0.1503, -0.1383, -0.1463, -0.2008, -0.2194, -0.2274, -0.234, -0.258, -0.3152, -0.359, -0.3178, -0.3351, -0.375, -0.3511, -0.3431, -0.3763, -0.367, -0.4176, -0.4089, -0.4089, -0.4242, -0.3843, -0.3816, -0.3351, -0.3644, -0.3205, -0.3378, -0.2806, -0.2793, -0.3285, -0.3391, -0.3511, -0.3112, -0.3351, -0.3245, -0.3338, -0.2992, -0.3564, -0.3418, -0.3112, -0.2606, -0.2979, -0.3165, -0.3471, -0.3072, -0.3112, -0.3218, -0.3484, -0.3617, -0.4109, -0.3777, -0.3923, -0.3697, -0.3697, -0.387, -0.3949, -0.383, -0.4269, -0.4255, -0.4202, -0.4003, -0.359, -0.2992, -0.2965, -0.2886, -0.2753, -0.2779, -0.3059, -0.2673, -0.2832, -0.2713, -0.258, -0.2846, -0.2766, -0.3178, -0.3045, -0.2739, -0.2926, -0.3338, -0.3551, -0.3737, -0.391]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1990871136121323613", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-11-18T19:54:02+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Things may bounce, but ultimately going much lower. $OPEN $TSLA $RGTI $OKLO among many others.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on OPEN, TSLA, RGTI, OKLO; any bounce is temporary, all headed much lower.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@LloydReeves13B @nejatian @UnicusResearch @m3_melody @ericjackson @dayetweets @APompliano @rabois Win some, lose some. Things may bounce, but ultimately going much lower. $OPEN $TSLA $RGTI $OKLO among many others.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @nejatian @UnicusResearch @m3_melody @ericjackson @dayetweets @APompliano @rabois Where have you been George, missed the banter.  As a short I'm assuming your bags are bursting after the past week.  Don't judge me if I try and take a little of that back.  Law of the jungle and all that 👍", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "LloydReeves13B", "ret_m1d": 0.019115298262266434, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.019115298262266434, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010646628815037529, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.00031795387929212104, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008468669447228905, "bench_c_m1d": 0.018797344382974313, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006828636098130891, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.006828636098130891, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.002965459454854269, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00678405536183635, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0038631766432766224, "bench_c_p1d": 4.458073629454162e-05, "ret_p1w": 0.04523362964855915, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04523362964855915, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.022599979175982998, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.005590004772480839, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02263365047257615, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03964362487607831, "ret_p1m": 0.1645109277647976, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1645109277647976, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1473614852198073, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.09083613288575676, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01714944254499029, "bench_c_p1m": 0.07367479487904083, "ret_p3m": 0.04034891574182242, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.04034891574182242, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.00446769080268461, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.003286597547637715, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03588122493913781, "bench_c_p3m": 0.03706231819418471, "ret_p6m": 0.10970713772877727, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10970713772877727, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.021271947639259325, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.04784309270113951, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1309790853680366, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06186404502763776, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1645109277647976, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1473614852198073, "alpha_c_stated": -0.09083613288575676, "price_path": [-0.2022, -0.1526, -0.1362, -0.1236, -0.1287, -0.1377, -0.1679, -0.1679, -0.1792, -0.1674, -0.1563, -0.1256, -0.1367, -0.1353, -0.1332, -0.0808, -0.0132, 0.0219, 0.0508, 0.0613, 0.0389, 0.0619, 0.0821, 0.0613, 0.1035, 0.0552, 0.0976, 0.1046, 0.1083, 0.1451, 0.0866, 0.0712, 0.1296, 0.0794, 0.0933, 0.0855, 0.0305, 0.0864, 0.0698, 0.0845, 0.0685, 0.0949, 0.1151, 0.1031, 0.094, 0.119, 0.0809, 0.1275, 0.1478, 0.1502, 0.0968, 0.1378, 0.1673, 0.1072, 0.1516, 0.1113, 0.0705, 0.1096, 0.0956, 0.0731, 0.0018, 0.0077, 0.0191, 0.0, 0.0068, -0.015, -0.0253, 0.0412, 0.0452, 0.0631, 0.0631, 0.0721, 0.072, 0.0698, 0.1134, 0.1328, 0.134, 0.0955, 0.1095, 0.1251, 0.1137, 0.1438, 0.1846, 0.2209, 0.1645, 0.2047, 0.1993, 0.218, 0.2101, 0.2097, 0.2097, 0.1843, 0.1455, 0.1325, 0.1208, 0.1208, 0.0918, 0.1257, 0.079, 0.0752, 0.0861, 0.1091, 0.1189, 0.1145, 0.0946, 0.093, 0.0903, 0.0903, 0.0449, 0.0752, 0.1199, 0.1192, 0.0846, 0.0739, 0.0753, 0.0382, 0.0727, 0.0512, 0.0516, 0.0119, -0.0101, 0.0246, 0.04, 0.0597, 0.0673, 0.0394, 0.0403, 0.0403, 0.0234, 0.0251, 0.0261, 0.0263, -0.0035, 0.0203, 0.0402, 0.0183, 0.0031, 0.0052, -0.022, 0.0117, 0.0107, -0.0113, -0.0064, -0.005, 0.0164, -0.0156, -0.025, -0.0142, -0.0049, -0.0211, -0.0522, -0.083, -0.0508, -0.0454, -0.0381, -0.0726, -0.0982, -0.1146, -0.0735, -0.0498, -0.1013, -0.1013, -0.1207, -0.1361, -0.1445, -0.1386, -0.1303, -0.1217, -0.0923, -0.0232, -0.0308, -0.0016, -0.0218, -0.037, -0.0342, -0.0686, -0.0622, -0.0563, -0.0629, -0.0709, -0.0489, -0.026, -0.0218, -0.0296, -0.0063, 0.0263, 0.0675, 0.109, 0.0802, 0.1097]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1990871136121323613", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2025-11-18T19:54:02+00:00", "symbol": "RGTI", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Things may bounce, but ultimately going much lower. $OPEN $TSLA $RGTI $OKLO among many others.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on OPEN, TSLA, RGTI, OKLO; any bounce is temporary, all headed much lower.", "resolved_tickers": ["RGTI"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Computer Hardware'", "bench_c_industry": "Computer Hardware", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@LloydReeves13B @nejatian @UnicusResearch @m3_melody @ericjackson @dayetweets @APompliano @rabois Win some, lose some. Things may bounce, but ultimately going much lower. $OPEN $TSLA $RGTI $OKLO among many others.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @nejatian @UnicusResearch @m3_melody @ericjackson @dayetweets @APompliano @rabois Where have you been George, missed the banter.  As a short I'm assuming your bags are bursting after the past week.  Don't judge me if I try and take a little of that back.  Law of the jungle and all that 👍", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "LloydReeves13B", "ret_m1d": -0.039673223910422384, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.039673223910422384, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.04814189335765129, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0561946357321742, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008468669447228905, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01652141182175182, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.009723843208963245, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.009723843208963245, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.013587019852239868, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01667646493337238, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0038631766432766224, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006952621724409136, "ret_p1w": 0.014391320591561563, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.014391320591561563, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.008242329881014587, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.00926648106877459, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02263365047257615, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0051248395227869725, "ret_p1m": -0.12602099908571895, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.12602099908571895, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.14317044163070924, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.12512489608515198, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01714944254499029, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0008961030005669723, "ret_p3m": -0.37417344513616435, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.37417344513616435, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.41005467007530216, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.37601319587437054, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03588122493913781, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0018397507382061917, "ret_p6m": -0.28374167361799196, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.28374167361799196, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.41472075898602856, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5548484623915485, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1309790853680366, "bench_c_p6m": 0.27110678877355654, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.12602099908571895, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.14317044163070924, "alpha_c_stated": 0.12512489608515198, "price_path": [-0.445, -0.4236, -0.4372, -0.4049, -0.4014, -0.3551, -0.3687, -0.3687, -0.3963, -0.415, -0.4119, -0.4127, -0.4107, -0.3582, -0.3703, -0.3508, -0.2575, -0.2528, -0.2221, -0.1447, -0.0377, 0.1093, 0.1035, 0.2236, 0.2306, 0.2485, 0.2128, 0.1532, 0.1587, 0.161, 0.3769, 0.5581, 0.6223, 0.7079, 0.6814, 0.8324, 0.7083, 1.1357, 1.1828, 1.1914, 0.8658, 0.804, 0.6846, 0.5558, 0.4026, 0.5401, 0.5107, 0.5651, 0.4419, 0.5329, 0.6538, 0.7219, 0.5216, 0.3683, 0.4504, 0.3364, 0.3135, 0.2867, 0.2213, 0.1007, -0.0198, -0.0089, -0.0397, 0.0, -0.0097, -0.1132, -0.0825, 0.0335, 0.0144, -0.0054, -0.0054, -0.0054, -0.0879, -0.0712, 0.0128, 0.1692, 0.0933, 0.0992, 0.0976, 0.0159, 0.0455, 0.0051, -0.0848, -0.0681, -0.126, -0.1124, -0.0758, 0.0455, -0.0233, -0.0467, -0.0467, -0.1295, -0.1338, -0.1284, -0.1385, -0.1385, -0.0821, -0.0272, -0.0128, -0.0194, -0.0179, -0.0385, -0.007, -0.0482, 0.0004, -0.0393, -0.0035, -0.0035, -0.028, -0.0793, -0.0292, -0.0879, -0.1536, -0.1322, -0.1439, -0.2279, -0.2933, -0.3112, -0.2917, -0.3314, -0.4175, -0.3112, -0.3158, -0.3399, -0.3609, -0.417, -0.3742, -0.3742, -0.3936, -0.3707, -0.3543, -0.3808, -0.3769, -0.359, -0.3143, -0.275, -0.3224, -0.3119, -0.3403, -0.3092, -0.3399, -0.3384, -0.3154, -0.3392, -0.3411, -0.375, -0.3711, -0.3722, -0.3691, -0.3905, -0.4006, -0.4212, -0.3823, -0.3932, -0.4111, -0.4395, -0.4819, -0.4982, -0.4539, -0.4749, -0.4481, -0.4481, -0.4477, -0.4617, -0.4349, -0.4434, -0.429, -0.4115, -0.3438, -0.2567, -0.2435, -0.2295, -0.2361, -0.2902, -0.2851, -0.3442, -0.3539, -0.3423, -0.3625, -0.3746, -0.3213, -0.3193, -0.3116, -0.2894, -0.2186, -0.2867, -0.2633, -0.2023, -0.2583, -0.2837]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1990871136121323613", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2025-11-18T19:54:02+00:00", "symbol": "OKLO", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Things may bounce, but ultimately going much lower. $OPEN $TSLA $RGTI $OKLO among many others.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on OPEN, TSLA, RGTI, OKLO; any bounce is temporary, all headed much lower.", "resolved_tickers": ["OKLO"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Utilities - Independent Power Producers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@LloydReeves13B @nejatian @UnicusResearch @m3_melody @ericjackson @dayetweets @APompliano @rabois Win some, lose some. Things may bounce, but ultimately going much lower. $OPEN $TSLA $RGTI $OKLO among many others.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @nejatian @UnicusResearch @m3_melody @ericjackson @dayetweets @APompliano @rabois Where have you been George, missed the banter.  As a short I'm assuming your bags are bursting after the past week.  Don't judge me if I try and take a little of that back.  Law of the jungle and all that 👍", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "LloydReeves13B", "ret_m1d": -0.013142881912081239, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.013142881912081239, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.021611551359310144, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.021611551359310144, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008468669447228905, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008468669447228905, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06447276760854126, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06447276760854126, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06060959096526464, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.06060959096526464, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0038631766432766224, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0038631766432766224, "ret_p1w": -0.1123874668222391, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.1123874668222391, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.13502111729481525, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.13502111729481525, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02263365047257615, "bench_c_p1w": 0.02263365047257615, "ret_p1m": -0.2141156514550131, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2141156514550131, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.2312650940000034, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2312650940000034, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01714944254499029, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01714944254499029, "ret_p3m": -0.3201903724665305, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3201903724665305, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3560715974056683, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3560715974056683, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03588122493913781, "bench_c_p3m": 0.03588122493913781, "ret_p6m": -0.27910580935419227, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.27910580935419227, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.41008489472222887, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.41008489472222887, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1309790853680366, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1309790853680366, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2141156514550131, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.2312650940000034, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2312650940000034, "price_path": [-0.3047, -0.2717, -0.2633, -0.231, -0.2425, -0.1939, -0.2379, -0.2379, -0.2384, -0.2525, -0.2796, -0.2778, -0.2681, -0.2345, -0.2368, -0.1724, -0.1441, -0.0098, -0.0083, -0.0139, 0.0863, 0.3995, 0.4519, 0.4762, 0.3574, 0.2328, 0.1438, 0.2057, 0.1552, 0.1997, 0.3329, 0.318, 0.4339, 0.388, 0.3947, 0.4295, 0.5229, 0.7697, 0.8021, 0.7754, 0.6779, 0.6909, 0.646, 0.443, 0.2431, 0.2905, 0.4079, 0.4222, 0.3689, 0.4842, 0.4218, 0.374, 0.3109, 0.1614, 0.2546, 0.1047, 0.1658, 0.1541, 0.0785, 0.1505, 0.0518, 0.0097, -0.0131, 0.0, 0.0645, -0.0893, -0.0876, -0.0733, -0.1124, -0.0819, -0.0819, -0.0543, -0.0959, -0.0496, -0.0004, 0.1554, 0.0832, 0.0826, 0.0755, 0.0411, 0.0659, -0.0953, -0.148, -0.1358, -0.2141, -0.1957, -0.1387, -0.1365, -0.1526, -0.1585, -0.1585, -0.204, -0.2333, -0.2588, -0.2574, -0.2574, -0.1949, -0.0754, -0.0107, 0.01, 0.01, 0.0898, 0.0607, 0.0048, -0.0068, -0.0536, -0.0174, -0.0174, -0.0693, -0.0605, -0.059, -0.0931, -0.1482, -0.1176, -0.0232, -0.1096, -0.176, -0.2381, -0.1928, -0.2939, -0.3569, -0.2642, -0.2233, -0.2811, -0.3146, -0.3385, -0.3202, -0.3202, -0.3, -0.3026, -0.3, -0.3394, -0.3471, -0.3267, -0.3137, -0.2852, -0.3485, -0.3306, -0.3449, -0.3206, -0.3581, -0.3972, -0.3607, -0.3648, -0.3505, -0.3833, -0.3959, -0.3823, -0.3736, -0.4132, -0.434, -0.4415, -0.4178, -0.4312, -0.428, -0.4638, -0.4802, -0.5283, -0.4868, -0.5025, -0.5019, -0.5019, -0.4954, -0.5179, -0.4804, -0.5058, -0.48, -0.4418, -0.3938, -0.3444, -0.3355, -0.3086, -0.2949, -0.3521, -0.2506, -0.2087, -0.2652, -0.2142, -0.285, -0.3275, -0.2497, -0.2714, -0.2901, -0.2924, -0.176, -0.2566, -0.2496, -0.1915, -0.238, -0.2791]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989387744154431690", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-14T17:39:33+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "If you are a $TSLA investor (short or long term, you should be very worried. It's difficult to justify TSLA's forward P/E of 200x+ in what is clearly a commodity business (unsupervised autonomy) where TSLA is one of many fighting for market share.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: unjustifiable 200x+ forward P/E, EV profits at risk, behind Chinese rivals in autonomous ride-hailing commodity market; implicitly bullish Chinese autonomous players BIDU/Pony/WeRide.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "If you are a $TSLA investor (short or long term, you should be very worried. \n\n “ $TSLA bulls say it doesn’t matter that TSLA Oct global volumes are down -30-35% YoY, since the business is transitioning to unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots. That’s a fool’s narrative with 70%+ TSLA profits from EVs. \n\nWith EVs, TSLA had first mover advantage and clearly had the best product on the market at a price that was also highly profitable.  Nobody else except BYD has made money on EVs.  \n\nTSLA bulls refuse to acknowledge that automous ride-sharing is a commodity business where TSLA is behind the Chinese manufacturers ( $BIDU $PONY and $WRD) who are already completing 450K paid fully autonomous rides per week and will license their technology to anyone who will pay for it. \n\nI have said for years that unsupervised autonomy is table stakes for anyone in the automotive business and that prediction looks more prescient every day.  Fully autonomous ride-hailing is already a crowded space and will only get more crowded as others solve for unsupervised autonomy. Few sell-side analysts’ TSLA models show significant future revenue or profits for autonomous ride-hailing (generally <5% of 2030 revs) and almost none show revs or profits for humanoid robots.  It’s hilarious that TSLA bulls cheerlead without even attempting to justify TSLA’s valuation.  \n\nBottom line:  It’s difficult to justify TSLA’s forward P/E of 200x+ in what is clearly a commodity business (unsupervised autonomy) where TSLA is one of many fighting for market share.” - Gary Black", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "$TSLA situation: \n\nIf you are just a long term holder, imo there is nothing to worry about. All engines running and AI revolution is on track. \n\nIf you are also tactically trading, we don't know how bad it will get and short term, there is never a floor you can rely on once the", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JOBhakdi", "ret_m1d": -0.0058365669185533875, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0058365669185533875, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0060004181346884344, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01064408854382437, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004807521625270983, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011302107716671506, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011302107716671506, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020618455232186972, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.020700482738195358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009398375021523853, "ret_p1w": -0.03279339573505624, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03279339573505624, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013595052235132021, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009448939789045818, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023344455946010423, "ret_p1m": 0.175491505833963, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12104994010517256, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05444156572879044, "ret_p3m": 0.05915662804276711, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03708219761959586, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022074430423171254, "ret_p6m": 0.10053170095928676, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10053170095928676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.005996684684012932, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.062402347566690386, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03812935339259638, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12104994010517256, "price_path": [-0.1856, -0.199, -0.2083, -0.1591, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1354, -0.1444, -0.1743, -0.1743, -0.1855, -0.1738, -0.1628, -0.1323, -0.1433, -0.1419, -0.1399, -0.0879, -0.0208, 0.0141, 0.0427, 0.0532, 0.0309, 0.0537, 0.0738, 0.0532, 0.0951, 0.0471, 0.0892, 0.0961, 0.0998, 0.1363, 0.0783, 0.063, 0.1209, 0.0711, 0.0849, 0.0771, 0.0226, 0.078, 0.0616, 0.0762, 0.0603, 0.0865, 0.1065, 0.0946, 0.0856, 0.1104, 0.0726, 0.1189, 0.139, 0.1414, 0.0884, 0.1291, 0.1583, 0.0987, 0.1427, 0.1028, 0.0622, 0.1011, 0.0872, 0.0649, -0.0058, 0.0, 0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0009, -0.0226, -0.0328, 0.0332, 0.0372, 0.055, 0.055, 0.0639, 0.0638, 0.0616, 0.1048, 0.1241, 0.1253, 0.0871, 0.101, 0.1165, 0.1052, 0.1351, 0.1755, 0.2115, 0.1556, 0.1954, 0.1901, 0.2087, 0.2008, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.1752, 0.1367, 0.1239, 0.1122, 0.1122, 0.0834, 0.117, 0.0708, 0.0669, 0.0778, 0.1006, 0.1103, 0.106, 0.0862, 0.0846, 0.082, 0.082, 0.0368, 0.067, 0.1113, 0.1106, 0.0763, 0.0657, 0.067, 0.0302, 0.0644, 0.0432, 0.0436, 0.0041, -0.0177, 0.0167, 0.0321, 0.0516, 0.0592, 0.0315, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0155, 0.0172, 0.0182, 0.0185, -0.0112, 0.0124, 0.0323, 0.0105, -0.0046, -0.0025, -0.0295, 0.0039, 0.003, -0.0188, -0.014, -0.0126, 0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0325, -0.0217, -0.0126, -0.0286, -0.0595, -0.09, -0.0581, -0.0527, -0.0455, -0.0797, -0.1052, -0.1214, -0.0806, -0.0571, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1274, -0.1427, -0.1511, -0.1452, -0.137, -0.1284, -0.0993, -0.0307, -0.0382, -0.0092, -0.0293, -0.0443, -0.0416, -0.0758, -0.0694, -0.0635, -0.0701, -0.078, -0.0562, -0.0335, -0.0293, -0.037, -0.0139, 0.0184, 0.0594, 0.1005]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989387744154431690", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-11-14T17:39:33+00:00", "symbol": "BIDU", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "TSLA is behind the Chinese manufacturers ( $BIDU $PONY and $WRD) who are already completing 450K paid fully autonomous rides per week", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: unjustifiable 200x+ forward P/E, EV profits at risk, behind Chinese rivals in autonomous ride-hailing commodity market; implicitly bullish Chinese autonomous players BIDU/Pony/WeRide.", "resolved_tickers": ["BIDU"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLC", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Content & Information'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Content & Information", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "If you are a $TSLA investor (short or long term, you should be very worried. \n\n “ $TSLA bulls say it doesn’t matter that TSLA Oct global volumes are down -30-35% YoY, since the business is transitioning to unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots. That’s a fool’s narrative with 70%+ TSLA profits from EVs. \n\nWith EVs, TSLA had first mover advantage and clearly had the best product on the market at a price that was also highly profitable.  Nobody else except BYD has made money on EVs.  \n\nTSLA bulls refuse to acknowledge that automous ride-sharing is a commodity business where TSLA is behind the Chinese manufacturers ( $BIDU $PONY and $WRD) who are already completing 450K paid fully autonomous rides per week and will license their technology to anyone who will pay for it. \n\nI have said for years that unsupervised autonomy is table stakes for anyone in the automotive business and that prediction looks more prescient every day.  Fully autonomous ride-hailing is already a crowded space and will only get more crowded as others solve for unsupervised autonomy. Few sell-side analysts’ TSLA models show significant future revenue or profits for autonomous ride-hailing (generally <5% of 2030 revs) and almost none show revs or profits for humanoid robots.  It’s hilarious that TSLA bulls cheerlead without even attempting to justify TSLA’s valuation.  \n\nBottom line:  It’s difficult to justify TSLA’s forward P/E of 200x+ in what is clearly a commodity business (unsupervised autonomy) where TSLA is one of many fighting for market share.” - Gary Black", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "$TSLA situation: \n\nIf you are just a long term holder, imo there is nothing to worry about. All engines running and AI revolution is on track. \n\nIf you are also tactically trading, we don't know how bad it will get and short term, there is never a floor you can rely on once the", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JOBhakdi", "ret_m1d": 0.04008622005068019, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04008622005068019, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03992236883454514, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.034696858992532276, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005389361058147912, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0162930981866245, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0162930981866245, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006976750671109033, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01494563690919437, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0013474612774301287, "ret_p1w": -0.043534509066877725, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.043534509066877725, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.024336165566953505, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.04865439169958452, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005119882632706796, "ret_p1m": 0.024396567509092026, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.024396567509092026, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.011299827149982233, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.022670602045668398, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.047067169554760424, "ret_p3m": 0.2510344406654095, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2510344406654095, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2181816765072997, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.19904550387154996, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05198893679385952, "ret_p6m": 0.25672412740773165, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.25672412740773165, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.15019574176443196, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.21186471707520838, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.044859410332523275, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.024396567509092026, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.011299827149982233, "alpha_c_stated": -0.022670602045668398, "price_path": [-0.2322, -0.2521, -0.2447, -0.2241, -0.2075, -0.2028, -0.2253, -0.2158, -0.1784, -0.1784, -0.1699, -0.169, -0.1534, -0.121, -0.0634, -0.0649, -0.0724, -0.036, -0.0105, -0.0102, 0.0672, 0.1882, 0.1659, 0.1668, 0.1778, 0.0825, 0.1459, 0.1672, 0.1322, 0.1626, 0.1359, 0.1848, 0.2089, 0.2241, 0.2492, 0.1978, 0.1888, 0.1414, 0.0491, 0.0838, 0.034, 0.0481, 0.0422, 0.0346, 0.0528, 0.0271, 0.0089, 0.0386, 0.0583, 0.1091, 0.0933, 0.1, 0.0501, 0.042, 0.0451, 0.0775, 0.0632, 0.0952, 0.0859, 0.1407, 0.1375, 0.1116, 0.0401, 0.0, -0.0163, 0.0098, -0.0044, -0.0478, -0.0435, 0.0277, 0.0162, 0.0029, 0.0029, 0.0077, 0.032, 0.0258, 0.011, 0.0234, 0.0833, 0.1212, 0.0684, 0.0868, 0.1061, 0.0777, 0.0244, 0.0285, 0.0302, 0.0387, 0.0674, 0.0725, 0.0675, 0.0634, 0.0634, 0.0759, 0.0932, 0.1412, 0.1264, 0.1264, 0.2957, 0.2903, 0.2622, 0.2656, 0.2178, 0.2374, 0.3126, 0.2875, 0.2974, 0.2879, 0.2891, 0.2891, 0.2933, 0.399, 0.401, 0.3917, 0.3455, 0.359, 0.3592, 0.3578, 0.3205, 0.2808, 0.2488, 0.1892, 0.1979, 0.258, 0.267, 0.2729, 0.251, 0.1929, 0.1811, 0.1811, 0.1839, 0.1885, 0.182, 0.1712, 0.1547, 0.152, 0.1435, 0.0789, 0.0728, 0.0652, 0.0234, 0.0257, 0.0166, 0.0263, 0.0559, 0.0819, 0.0789, 0.0617, 0.0696, 0.05, 0.0404, 0.0506, 0.0259, -0.015, -0.0127, -0.0299, -0.0034, -0.0525, -0.0679, -0.081, -0.0395, -0.0353, -0.0434, -0.0434, -0.0407, -0.0465, -0.0215, -0.067, -0.0654, -0.0344, 0.0192, 0.0426, 0.0778, 0.0873, 0.1013, 0.0646, 0.0628, 0.0477, 0.1096, 0.1035, 0.0841, 0.0432, 0.0908, 0.0852, 0.099, 0.0883, 0.212, 0.2058, 0.2159, 0.2567]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2002910444986552406", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-22T01:13:57+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is wildly overvalued with that comparison. $OPEN is also very expensive on book value or revenues when compared to the Ibuyer $OPAD", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN as wildly overvalued on multiple metrics; bullish COMP as asset-light and profitable by comparison.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The comparison, while imperfect, is actually unfair to $COMP as it is asset light and very profitable vs $OPEN which is asset heavy and loss making!!! Despite that, $OPEN is wildly overvalued with that comparison. \n$OPEN is also very expensive on book value or revenues when compared to the Ibuyer $OPAD .\nQuestion for you, not meant to offend, but do you work in finance? How many accounting and finance classes have you taken?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 compared an agent model (Compass) to a principal model ( $OPEN ), mixed revenue and profit metrics. \n\nHe then applied asset-light revenue multiples to a business that is still capital-intensive and not yet sustainably profitable.\n\nWhat a mixed up!!!", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "MarkLStonk", "ret_m1d": -0.009345785368615966, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009345785368615966, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0031545516895949977, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.001980866791325475, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007364918577290491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023364500558389678, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023364500558389678, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027934992905720324, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.023115809487931793, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00024869107045788486, "ret_p1w": -0.09190033420193955, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09190033420193955, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09631017702703448, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10284842842346764, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010948094221528093, "ret_p1m": -0.004672929821157856, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.034780164832387994, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030107235011230138, "ret_p3m": -0.19937697735157223, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19937697735157223, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16282773267312123, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2424225098912084, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04304553253963617, "ret_p6m": -0.26012461938442555, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.26012461938442555, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35876109648465593, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3898369657490104, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12971234636458484, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_stated": 0.034780164832387994, "price_path": [0.2819, 0.4159, 0.3723, 0.2773, 0.2414, 0.2555, 0.2477, 0.2632, 0.4455, 0.447, 0.3224, 0.2679, 0.1791, 0.1324, 0.19, 0.1495, 0.1075, 0.1153, 0.148, 0.0841, 0.0623, 0.095, 0.2414, 0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2002910444986552406", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-12-22T01:13:57+00:00", "symbol": "COMP", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$COMP as it is asset light and very profitable vs $OPEN which is asset heavy and loss making", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN as wildly overvalued on multiple metrics; bullish COMP as asset-light and profitable by comparison.", "resolved_tickers": ["COMP"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The comparison, while imperfect, is actually unfair to $COMP as it is asset light and very profitable vs $OPEN which is asset heavy and loss making!!! Despite that, $OPEN is wildly overvalued with that comparison. \n$OPEN is also very expensive on book value or revenues when compared to the Ibuyer $OPAD .\nQuestion for you, not meant to offend, but do you work in finance? How many accounting and finance classes have you taken?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 compared an agent model (Compass) to a principal model ( $OPEN ), mixed revenue and profit metrics. \n\nHe then applied asset-light revenue multiples to a business that is still capital-intensive and not yet sustainably profitable.\n\nWhat a mixed up!!!", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "MarkLStonk", "ret_m1d": -0.013059733193603429, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.013059733193603429, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.00686849951458246, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.005694814616312938, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007364918577290491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.009328393561453097, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.009328393561453097, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.013898885908783742, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.009079702490995212, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00024869107045788486, "ret_p1w": -0.001865714297152321, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.001865714297152321, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.006275557122247255, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.012813808518680414, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010948094221528093, "ret_p1m": 0.19029849916397823, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.19029849916397823, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20088506076424462, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1601912641527481, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030107235011230138, "ret_p3m": -0.24160448582766159, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.24160448582766159, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2050552411492106, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.28465001836729775, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04304553253963617, "ret_p6m": -0.12126867148811893, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.12126867148811893, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.2199051485883493, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.25098101785270377, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12971234636458484, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.19029849916397823, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20088506076424462, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1601912641527481, "price_path": [-0.2603, -0.2584, -0.2584, -0.2332, -0.2509, -0.2882, -0.2957, -0.2696, -0.2873, -0.3088, -0.3134, -0.3218, -0.3433, -0.3545, -0.3293, -0.32, -0.3181, -0.32, -0.3013, -0.2938, -0.2901, -0.2845, -0.2509, -0.2481, -0.2603, -0.2901, -0.306, -0.2808, -0.2743, -0.2201, -0.18, -0.2043, -0.2024, -0.18, -0.1203, -0.1138, -0.1147, -0.1222, -0.125, -0.1278, -0.1269, -0.1437, -0.07, -0.0112, -0.0205, -0.028, -0.028, -0.028, -0.0084, -0.0149, -0.0205, -0.0299, -0.0373, -0.028, 0.0112, -0.0159, 0.0037, 0.0019, -0.0354, 0.0149, -0.0177, 0.0019, -0.0131, 0.0, -0.0093, -0.0037, -0.0037, -0.0121, -0.0019, -0.0103, -0.014, -0.014, -0.0205, 0.0121, 0.0103, 0.1045, 0.1437, 0.1978, 0.139, 0.1353, 0.1474, 0.1744, 0.1996, 0.1996, 0.1903, 0.2435, 0.2388, 0.2435, 0.2668, 0.2248, 0.2174, 0.2155, 0.1679, 0.1455, 0.1362, 0.1175, 0.1231, 0.1446, 0.2006, 0.1903, 0.0448, -0.0373, -0.0289, -0.0289, -0.0578, -0.0243, -0.0271, -0.0392, -0.153, -0.1203, -0.1129, -0.0672, -0.0905, -0.0616, -0.0868, -0.1147, -0.1269, -0.1884, -0.1604, -0.1772, -0.195, -0.2453, -0.2276, -0.2332, -0.2043, -0.2463, -0.2416, -0.2752, -0.2099, -0.2444, -0.2612, -0.2892, -0.3396, -0.3619, -0.3181, -0.3302, -0.3405, -0.3405, -0.3657, -0.3769, -0.306, -0.3256, -0.334, -0.3349, -0.3386, -0.3209, -0.319, -0.2407, -0.2463, -0.2696, -0.2621, -0.2733, -0.2677, -0.2453, -0.264, -0.2892, -0.2938, -0.3106, -0.3414, -0.3228, -0.1381, -0.1847, -0.1866, -0.1828, -0.2201, -0.2425, -0.2771, -0.2649, -0.2621, -0.2929, -0.222, -0.2099, -0.2164, -0.2164, -0.2257, -0.2183, -0.2201, -0.2323, -0.2118, -0.195, -0.2901, -0.2649, -0.2808, -0.2929, -0.2379, -0.2621, -0.2118, -0.1987, -0.1474, -0.1213]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1985828328599859645", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-04T21:55:43+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect they will lose money in 2026", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: energy storage narrative overblown, expects TSLA to lose money in 2026 vs $1.5T market cap.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@shortseller Got it. Energy storage has done a mere $10B in revenues over the last 12 months. $TSLA mkt cap is $1.5T and I expect they will lose money in 2026. But hey, grifters gotta grift.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "doesn't matter... 2026 = $TSLA becomes an 'energy storage for the grid' play.....the narrative keeps shifting and that's all the grifter needs to do to keep his grift going", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "ShortSeller", "ret_m1d": -0.03854393766375119, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03854393766375119, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03509042906104165, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.02651372362856519, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.003453508602709543, "bench_c_m1d": -0.012030214035186004, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03497306340156037, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03497306340156037, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.024243790356765382, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.011866789569991765, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.010729273044794985, "bench_c_p1d": -0.023106273831568602, "ret_p1w": -0.06810656550279337, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06810656550279337, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07666640591334895, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05516371541912024, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008559840410555575, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01294285008367313, "ret_p1m": -0.01631789214925461, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01631789214925461, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02636843413503298, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.004204641733435932, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.010050541985778372, "bench_c_p1m": -0.012113250415818677, "ret_p3m": -0.08712967543330707, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.08712967543330707, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.11647650600539561, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10108239818603959, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.029346830572088534, "bench_c_p3m": 0.013952722752732516, "ret_p6m": -0.17408617994321418, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17408617994321418, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24075286477476932, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.15992166347730363, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.06666668483155513, "bench_c_p6m": -0.014164516465910548, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2866, -0.2663, -0.2624, -0.2655, -0.2737, -0.2846, -0.2747, -0.2873, -0.299, -0.3072, -0.2642, -0.2499, -0.2389, -0.2434, -0.2512, -0.2774, -0.2774, -0.2872, -0.277, -0.2674, -0.2407, -0.2503, -0.2491, -0.2473, -0.2018, -0.1431, -0.1126, -0.0875, -0.0784, -0.0979, -0.0779, -0.0603, -0.0784, -0.0417, -0.0837, -0.0469, -0.0408, -0.0375, -0.0056, -0.0564, -0.0698, -0.0191, -0.0627, -0.0506, -0.0574, -0.1051, -0.0566, -0.071, -0.0583, -0.0721, -0.0493, -0.0317, -0.0421, -0.05, -0.0283, -0.0614, -0.0209, -0.0033, -0.0012, -0.0475, -0.0119, 0.0136, -0.0385, 0.0, -0.035, -0.0704, -0.0364, -0.0486, -0.0681, -0.13, -0.1249, -0.115, -0.1316, -0.1257, -0.1447, -0.1536, -0.0959, -0.0923, -0.0768, -0.0768, -0.069, -0.0691, -0.071, -0.0332, -0.0163, -0.0153, -0.0487, -0.0366, -0.023, -0.0329, -0.0067, 0.0287, 0.0602, 0.0112, 0.0461, 0.0414, 0.0577, 0.0508, 0.0505, 0.0505, 0.0284, -0.0053, -0.0165, -0.0267, -0.0267, -0.0519, -0.0225, -0.063, -0.0664, -0.0569, -0.0369, -0.0284, -0.0322, -0.0495, -0.0509, -0.0532, -0.0532, -0.0927, -0.0663, -0.0275, -0.0282, -0.0582, -0.0675, -0.0662, -0.0985, -0.0685, -0.0871, -0.0868, -0.1213, -0.1404, -0.1103, -0.0968, -0.0798, -0.0731, -0.0974, -0.0966, -0.0966, -0.1113, -0.1098, -0.109, -0.1087, -0.1347, -0.114, -0.0967, -0.1158, -0.1289, -0.1271, -0.1507, -0.1215, -0.1223, -0.1414, -0.1372, -0.136, -0.1174, -0.1451, -0.1534, -0.1439, -0.1359, -0.15, -0.177, -0.2037, -0.1758, -0.1711, -0.1647, -0.1947, -0.2169, -0.2311, -0.1955, -0.1749, -0.2196, -0.2196, -0.2364, -0.2498, -0.2571, -0.252, -0.2448, -0.2373, -0.2118, -0.1518, -0.1584, -0.133, -0.1506, -0.1637, -0.1614, -0.1912, -0.1856, -0.1805, -0.1862, -0.1932, -0.1741]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2003918596284858775", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-24T19:59:59+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The fourth quarter will be disastrous.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish Tesla; expects a disastrous Q4.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@cyrkaur Was actually 87% as one must include services. \n\nThe fourth quarter will be disastrous.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 As of Q3 it’s 74% from autos (FSD, leasing, sales, etc) and saying collapsing earnings doesn’t mean it’s collapsing any more than calling a drizzle a thunder storm. \n\nFundamentals have never in the history of math predicted innovation or new market additions cause that’s not how", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "cyrkaur", "ret_m1d": 0.0003296326001673844, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0003296326001673844, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003834976338493834, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0037556485266737605, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0035053437383264496, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003426015926506376, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.07350637232061918, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07350637232061918, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06125224520942507, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04756631429017033, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012254127111194113, "bench_c_p1w": -0.025940058030448854, "ret_p1m": -0.07424806138874351, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07424806138874351, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07222022359123703, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07449281251739803, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.002027837797506482, "bench_c_p1m": 0.000244751128654519, "ret_p3m": -0.2153893471520416, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2153893471520416, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1672851701847985, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11547271374786772, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04810417696724312, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0999166334041739, "ret_p6m": -0.17492790426408034, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17492790426408034, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.26231219525809335, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13255384206017795, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08738429099401301, "bench_c_p6m": -0.042374062203902385, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2153893471520416, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1672851701847985, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11547271374786772, "price_path": [-0.0927, -0.0869, -0.0838, -0.0534, -0.1018, -0.1145, -0.0662, -0.1078, -0.0962, -0.1027, -0.1481, -0.102, -0.1157, -0.1035, -0.1167, -0.095, -0.0782, -0.0882, -0.0957, -0.075, -0.1065, -0.0679, -0.0512, -0.0492, -0.0933, -0.0594, -0.0351, -0.0848, -0.0481, -0.0814, -0.1151, -0.0828, -0.0943, -0.1129, -0.1718, -0.167, -0.1576, -0.1734, -0.1677, -0.1858, -0.1943, -0.1393, -0.136, -0.1212, -0.1212, -0.1138, -0.1138, -0.1157, -0.0796, -0.0636, -0.0626, -0.0944, -0.0829, -0.0699, -0.0793, -0.0545, -0.0208, 0.0092, -0.0374, -0.0042, -0.0087, 0.0069, 0.0003, 0.0, 0.0, -0.021, -0.0531, -0.0638, -0.0735, -0.0735, -0.0975, -0.0695, -0.108, -0.1112, -0.1022, -0.0832, -0.0751, -0.0787, -0.0952, -0.0965, -0.0987, -0.0987, -0.1363, -0.1112, -0.0742, -0.0749, -0.1034, -0.1123, -0.1111, -0.1418, -0.1133, -0.131, -0.1307, -0.1636, -0.1817, -0.153, -0.1403, -0.124, -0.1177, -0.1408, -0.14, -0.14, -0.154, -0.1526, -0.1518, -0.1516, -0.1763, -0.1566, -0.1401, -0.1583, -0.1708, -0.1691, -0.1915, -0.1637, -0.1645, -0.1827, -0.1787, -0.1775, -0.1598, -0.1862, -0.1941, -0.1851, -0.1774, -0.1908, -0.2165, -0.2419, -0.2154, -0.2109, -0.2049, -0.2334, -0.2546, -0.2681, -0.2341, -0.2145, -0.2571, -0.2571, -0.2731, -0.2858, -0.2929, -0.288, -0.2811, -0.274, -0.2497, -0.1925, -0.1988, -0.1747, -0.1914, -0.2039, -0.2017, -0.2301, -0.2248, -0.2199, -0.2253, -0.232, -0.2138, -0.1948, -0.1914, -0.1978, -0.1786, -0.1516, -0.1175, -0.0832, -0.107, -0.0827, -0.0867, -0.1301, -0.1554, -0.1675, -0.1404, -0.1392, -0.1224, -0.1224, -0.1067, -0.0928, -0.0892, -0.1022, -0.1432, -0.127, -0.1271, -0.1379, -0.1945, -0.1575, -0.1828, -0.2139, -0.1777, -0.1627, -0.153, -0.1663, -0.1834, -0.1749]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1991234512517267739", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-19T19:57:57+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN remains a fundamental investment short. At 5x book and 40x sales, the valuation is so decidedly unattractive that it is an unambiguous SELL for me.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: asset-heavy, low-margin, intensely competitive industry; 5x book and 40x sales make it an unambiguous sell.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN remains a fundamental investment short. The vision of @nejatian for a “new” $OPEN business model does not even remotely justify the current valuation, let alone $82!!! They are in an asset heavy, low margin, intensely competitive industry. At 5x book and 40x sales, the valuation is so decidedly unattractive that it is an unambiguous SELL for me. I would only reconsider if they came up with a totally different model. Let me know when they do.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@BlueDot_Techs @gnoble79 @LloydReeves13B @gnoble79 George, are you short term negative or always negative? Real question: What do you need to see in order to turn bullish? We can comeback November 2026 to see if what you answer turns out to be true. I imagine a complete different company in 1 year. $open", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "tokendoor82", "ret_m1d": 0.12406575734035208, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.12406575734035208, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12791406728254384, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.11616639431652498, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0038483099421917633, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0078993630238271, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07922275116221034, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07922275116221034, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0639805238455623, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07576688859933256, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.015242227316648038, "bench_c_p1d": -0.003455862562877776, "ret_p1w": 0.16292976730418163, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.16292976730418163, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.13719895433709706, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.1392317749082974, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02573081296708457, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023697992395884215, "ret_p1m": -0.06128547741484702, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06128547741484702, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08217181834784015, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06054494234248731, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02088634093299313, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0007405350723597159, "ret_p3m": -0.33557546582321374, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.33557546582321374, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.36747029874548853, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.4211200278595575, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.031894832922274796, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08554456203634375, "ret_p6m": -0.331838602098782, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.331838602098782, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.46735927557345414, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.434979862934183, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13552067347467212, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10314126083540098, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06128547741484702, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08217181834784015, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06054494234248731, "price_path": [-0.2511, -0.3214, -0.2975, -0.3991, -0.3617, -0.3348, -0.3348, -0.2392, -0.2332, -0.1091, -0.006, -0.0972, -0.0867, -0.1241, 0.5725, 0.3558, 0.4193, 0.3333, 0.5262, 0.4858, 0.4305, 0.2526, 0.0598, 0.2302, 0.3587, 0.3169, 0.2257, 0.1913, 0.2048, 0.1973, 0.2123, 0.3871, 0.3886, 0.2691, 0.2167, 0.1315, 0.0867, 0.142, 0.1031, 0.0628, 0.0703, 0.1016, 0.0404, 0.0194, 0.0508, 0.1913, 0.2197, 0.1913, 0.1435, 0.0972, 0.1614, 0.1345, 0.0344, 0.0807, -0.0194, -0.0194, 0.1913, 0.2676, 0.4006, 0.2795, 0.2138, 0.1719, 0.1241, 0.0, -0.0792, 0.009, 0.1495, 0.157, 0.1629, 0.1629, 0.151, 0.0673, 0.0448, 0.0374, 0.133, 0.0688, 0.0538, 0.1076, 0.0463, 0.0538, -0.0194, -0.0329, 0.006, -0.0852, -0.0613, -0.0493, -0.0404, -0.0628, -0.0613, -0.0613, -0.1016, -0.1286, -0.1271, -0.1286, -0.1286, -0.0927, -0.0553, 0.0359, -0.0852, -0.0389, 0.0897, 0.0493, 0.012, -0.0075, -0.0583, -0.003, -0.003, -0.0448, -0.0314, -0.0404, -0.1016, -0.1226, -0.1315, -0.139, -0.1659, -0.2302, -0.2795, -0.2332, -0.2526, -0.2975, -0.2706, -0.2616, -0.299, -0.2885, -0.3453, -0.3356, -0.3356, -0.3528, -0.3079, -0.3049, -0.2526, -0.2855, -0.2362, -0.2556, -0.1913, -0.1898, -0.2451, -0.2571, -0.2706, -0.2257, -0.2526, -0.2407, -0.2511, -0.2123, -0.2765, -0.2601, -0.2257, -0.1689, -0.2108, -0.2317, -0.2661, -0.2212, -0.2257, -0.2377, -0.2676, -0.2825, -0.3378, -0.3004, -0.3169, -0.2915, -0.2915, -0.3109, -0.3199, -0.3064, -0.3558, -0.3543, -0.3483, -0.3259, -0.2795, -0.2123, -0.2093, -0.2003, -0.1854, -0.1883, -0.2197, -0.1764, -0.1943, -0.1809, -0.1659, -0.1958, -0.1868, -0.2332, -0.2182, -0.1839, -0.2048, -0.2511, -0.275, -0.296, -0.3154, -0.3318]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1983982825012371678", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-30T19:42:20+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "82 cents is more likely than $82 for open stock", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: no credible scalable business model; 82 cents far more likely than $82.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "That @nejatian is touting this as something important is laughable and very revealing. That it will be video on the $HOOD app - much ado about nothing. Expect some nebulous nonsense about tokenization of RE and a possible cooperation with $HOOD. \nThe FACT remains that $OPEN has yet to lay out a business plan for a robust, scalable profitable business model. \nUntil then 82 cents is more likely than $82 for open stock.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "So. @opendoor’s Q3 Financial Open House is November 6 @ 2pm PT. We're doing things differently. Here's what's new:\n\n→ Video instead of audio, so you can see and hear from us directly\n→ Live Q&amp;A powered by @robinhoodapp's Say Technologies platform, where YOU, our shareholders,", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04223432375137537, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04223432375137537, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0311140134066914, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.047860500841258036, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01112031034468397, "bench_c_m1d": -0.005626177089882667, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.058583081662064496, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.058583081662064496, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.05530285987141981, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.05809373224483383, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0032802217906446884, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0004893494172306667, "ret_p1w": -0.10626705634785882, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.10626705634785882, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09226356176562, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10259779792394519, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.014003494582238818, "bench_c_p1w": -0.003669258423913635, "ret_p1m": 0.049046273732067824, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.049046273732067824, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0438097412802676, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.029721474379220014, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.005236532451800224, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01932479935284781, "ret_p3m": -0.20844689073595069, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20844689073595069, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.23450490167014393, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22852564073750736, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.026058010934193243, "bench_c_p3m": 0.020078750001556678, "ret_p6m": -0.24931878551267395, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24931878551267395, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3054727136950439, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.34048406461955194, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05615392818236997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.091165279106878, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.049046273732067824, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0438097412802676, "alpha_c_stated": -0.029721474379220014, "price_path": [-0.6649, -0.6567, -0.7411, -0.748, -0.7343, -0.6853, -0.6635, -0.6703, -0.5858, -0.5681, -0.485, -0.5068, -0.5613, -0.5095, -0.3174, -0.3815, -0.3597, -0.4523, -0.4183, -0.3937, -0.3937, -0.3065, -0.3011, -0.188, -0.094, -0.1771, -0.1676, -0.2016, 0.4332, 0.2357, 0.2936, 0.2153, 0.391, 0.3542, 0.3038, 0.1417, -0.0341, 0.1213, 0.2384, 0.2003, 0.1172, 0.0858, 0.0981, 0.0913, 0.1049, 0.2643, 0.2657, 0.1567, 0.109, 0.0313, -0.0095, 0.0409, 0.0054, -0.0313, -0.0245, 0.0041, -0.0518, -0.0708, -0.0422, 0.0858, 0.1117, 0.0858, 0.0422, 0.0, 0.0586, 0.0341, -0.0572, -0.015, -0.1063, -0.1063, 0.0858, 0.1553, 0.2766, 0.1662, 0.1063, 0.0681, 0.0245, -0.0886, -0.1608, -0.0804, 0.0477, 0.0545, 0.0599, 0.0599, 0.049, -0.0272, -0.0477, -0.0545, 0.0327, -0.0259, -0.0395, 0.0095, -0.0463, -0.0395, -0.1063, -0.1185, -0.0831, -0.1662, -0.1444, -0.1335, -0.1253, -0.1458, -0.1444, -0.1444, -0.1812, -0.2057, -0.2044, -0.2057, -0.2057, -0.173, -0.139, -0.0559, -0.1662, -0.124, -0.0068, -0.0436, -0.0777, -0.0954, -0.1417, -0.0913, -0.0913, -0.1294, -0.1172, -0.1253, -0.1812, -0.2003, -0.2084, -0.2153, -0.2398, -0.2984, -0.3433, -0.3011, -0.3188, -0.3597, -0.3351, -0.327, -0.361, -0.3515, -0.4033, -0.3944, -0.3944, -0.4101, -0.3692, -0.3665, -0.3188, -0.3488, -0.3038, -0.3215, -0.2629, -0.2616, -0.312, -0.3229, -0.3351, -0.2943, -0.3188, -0.3079, -0.3174, -0.282, -0.3406, -0.3256, -0.2943, -0.2425, -0.2807, -0.2997, -0.3311, -0.2902, -0.2943, -0.3052, -0.3324, -0.346, -0.3965, -0.3624, -0.3774, -0.3542, -0.3542, -0.3719, -0.3801, -0.3678, -0.4128, -0.4114, -0.406, -0.3856, -0.3433, -0.282, -0.2793, -0.2711, -0.2575, -0.2602, -0.2888, -0.2493]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2003804565163098139", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-24T12:26:51+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Sales will also fall double digits in 2026 IMHO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: expects double-digit auto sales decline in 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@wojtekszkutnik Referring to 4q 2025. Sales will also fall double digits in 2026 IMHO.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Not a big fan of $TSLA but you have to be wrong in the head to see this chart and say that their auto sales are in free fall https://t.co/EwjoSJjqOx", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "wojtekszkutnik", "ret_m1d": 0.0003296326001673844, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0003296326001673844, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003834976338493834, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0037556485266737605, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0035053437383264496, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003426015926506376, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.07350637232061918, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07350637232061918, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06125224520942507, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04756631429017033, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012254127111194113, "bench_c_p1w": -0.025940058030448854, "ret_p1m": -0.07424806138874351, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07424806138874351, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07222022359123703, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07449281251739803, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.002027837797506482, "bench_c_p1m": 0.000244751128654519, "ret_p3m": -0.2153893471520416, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2153893471520416, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1672851701847985, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11547271374786772, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04810417696724312, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0999166334041739, "ret_p6m": -0.17492790426408034, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17492790426408034, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.26231219525809335, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13255384206017795, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08738429099401301, "bench_c_p6m": -0.042374062203902385, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.0927, -0.0869, -0.0838, -0.0534, -0.1018, -0.1145, -0.0662, -0.1078, -0.0962, -0.1027, -0.1481, -0.102, -0.1157, -0.1035, -0.1167, -0.095, -0.0782, -0.0882, -0.0957, -0.075, -0.1065, -0.0679, -0.0512, -0.0492, -0.0933, -0.0594, -0.0351, -0.0848, -0.0481, -0.0814, -0.1151, -0.0828, -0.0943, -0.1129, -0.1718, -0.167, -0.1576, -0.1734, -0.1677, -0.1858, -0.1943, -0.1393, -0.136, -0.1212, -0.1212, -0.1138, -0.1138, -0.1157, -0.0796, -0.0636, -0.0626, -0.0944, -0.0829, -0.0699, -0.0793, -0.0545, -0.0208, 0.0092, -0.0374, -0.0042, -0.0087, 0.0069, 0.0003, 0.0, 0.0, -0.021, -0.0531, -0.0638, -0.0735, -0.0735, -0.0975, -0.0695, -0.108, -0.1112, -0.1022, -0.0832, -0.0751, -0.0787, -0.0952, -0.0965, -0.0987, -0.0987, -0.1363, -0.1112, -0.0742, -0.0749, -0.1034, -0.1123, -0.1111, -0.1418, -0.1133, -0.131, -0.1307, -0.1636, -0.1817, -0.153, -0.1403, -0.124, -0.1177, -0.1408, -0.14, -0.14, -0.154, -0.1526, -0.1518, -0.1516, -0.1763, -0.1566, -0.1401, -0.1583, -0.1708, -0.1691, -0.1915, -0.1637, -0.1645, -0.1827, -0.1787, -0.1775, -0.1598, -0.1862, -0.1941, -0.1851, -0.1774, -0.1908, -0.2165, -0.2419, -0.2154, -0.2109, -0.2049, -0.2334, -0.2546, -0.2681, -0.2341, -0.2145, -0.2571, -0.2571, -0.2731, -0.2858, -0.2929, -0.288, -0.2811, -0.274, -0.2497, -0.1925, -0.1988, -0.1747, -0.1914, -0.2039, -0.2017, -0.2301, -0.2248, -0.2199, -0.2253, -0.232, -0.2138, -0.1948, -0.1914, -0.1978, -0.1786, -0.1516, -0.1175, -0.0832, -0.107, -0.0827, -0.0867, -0.1301, -0.1554, -0.1675, -0.1404, -0.1392, -0.1224, -0.1224, -0.1067, -0.0928, -0.0892, -0.1022, -0.1432, -0.127, -0.1271, -0.1379, -0.1945, -0.1575, -0.1828, -0.2139, -0.1777, -0.1627, -0.153, -0.1663, -0.1834, -0.1749]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1967673684887474518", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-15T19:35:38+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "On a comparable basis OPEN is valued at 22x revenues while $UBER is valued at 4x revenues, just for the record. Also $UBER has a pristine balance sheet, $OPEN not so much. Equivalent EV/sales would put $ OPEN at $1.80.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "OPEN overvalued at 22x rev vs UBER's 4x; equivalent EV/sales implies $1.80 fair value for OPEN — bearish OPEN, implicitly positive on UBER's balance sheet quality.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Listen to @ericjackson first insult, and then flat out lie, starting at 1:26:50. \n\n“Can you show me any published tweet where I have ever made a numeric comparison to $UBER ?”\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/Re3Xe7f1o0\n\n---\n\nEric in his own words. Checkmate. \n\nOn a comparable basis OPEN is valued at 22x revenues while $UBER is valued at 4x revenues, just for the record. Also $UBER has a pristine balance sheet, $OPEN not so much. Equivalent EV/sales would put $ OPEN at $1.80.\n@DavidDTawil @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @Realtor_Stocks @ericjackson", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.04476042083805021, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04476042083805021, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.039464838765678634, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.045942607545745084, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005295582072371574, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0011821867076948767, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.060558169162239994, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.060558169162239994, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.059181284208979945, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0546480752450067, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0013768849532600491, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0059100939172332945, "ret_p1w": -0.11743020374481139, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11743020374481139, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.12920011437334367, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.11005543721782352, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011769910628532276, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007374766526987875, "ret_p1m": -0.19536598645933112, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17917743588908375, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.00477530518646585, "bench_c_p1m": -0.016188550570247373, "ret_p3m": -0.2575039204100267, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2575039204100267, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.30315420208972554, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22940478278500354, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04565028167969887, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02809913762502314, "ret_p6m": -0.4723538399930335, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4723538399930335, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5028482094803816, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5059291739360562, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.030494369487348072, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0335753339430227, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17917743588908375, "price_path": [-0.9389, -0.9389, -0.9437, -0.9442, -0.9421, -0.9461, -0.9433, -0.9412, -0.9439, -0.9405, -0.9404, -0.9358, -0.9358, -0.9341, -0.9229, -0.9224, -0.907, -0.918, -0.9051, -0.8905, -0.8431, -0.8262, -0.763, -0.6619, -0.6967, -0.7588, -0.7451, -0.7325, -0.7536, -0.7841, -0.782, -0.8062, -0.7788, -0.7409, -0.7346, -0.7999, -0.8052, -0.7946, -0.7567, -0.7399, -0.7451, -0.6798, -0.6661, -0.6019, -0.6187, -0.6609, -0.6209, -0.4724, -0.5219, -0.505, -0.5766, -0.5503, -0.5313, -0.5313, -0.4639, -0.4597, -0.3723, -0.2996, -0.3639, -0.3565, -0.3828, 0.108, -0.0448, 0.0, -0.0606, 0.0753, 0.0469, 0.0079, -0.1174, -0.2533, -0.1332, -0.0427, -0.0721, -0.1364, -0.1606, -0.1511, -0.1564, -0.1459, -0.0226, -0.0216, -0.1058, -0.1427, -0.2027, -0.2343, -0.1954, -0.2227, -0.2512, -0.2459, -0.2238, -0.267, -0.2817, -0.2596, -0.1606, -0.1406, -0.1606, -0.1943, -0.227, -0.1817, -0.2006, -0.2712, -0.2385, -0.3091, -0.3091, -0.1606, -0.1069, -0.0132, -0.0985, -0.1448, -0.1743, -0.208, -0.2954, -0.3512, -0.2891, -0.1901, -0.1848, -0.1806, -0.1806, -0.189, -0.248, -0.2638, -0.2691, -0.2017, -0.247, -0.2575, -0.2196, -0.2628, -0.2575, -0.3091, -0.3186, -0.2912, -0.3555, -0.3386, -0.3302, -0.3239, -0.3397, -0.3386, -0.3386, -0.367, -0.386, -0.3849, -0.386, -0.386, -0.3607, -0.3344, -0.2701, -0.3555, -0.3228, -0.2322, -0.2607, -0.287, -0.3007, -0.3365, -0.2975, -0.2975, -0.327, -0.3175, -0.3239, -0.367, -0.3818, -0.3881, -0.3934, -0.4123, -0.4576, -0.4924, -0.4597, -0.4734, -0.505, -0.486, -0.4797, -0.5061, -0.4987, -0.5387, -0.5319, -0.5319, -0.544, -0.5124, -0.5103, -0.4734, -0.4966, -0.4618, -0.4755, -0.4302, -0.4292, -0.4681, -0.4766, -0.486, -0.4544, -0.4734, -0.465, -0.4724]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1967673684887474518", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-09-15T19:35:38+00:00", "symbol": "UBER", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$UBER has a pristine balance sheet", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "OPEN overvalued at 22x rev vs UBER's 4x; equivalent EV/sales implies $1.80 fair value for OPEN — bearish OPEN, implicitly positive on UBER's balance sheet quality.", "resolved_tickers": ["UBER"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Listen to @ericjackson first insult, and then flat out lie, starting at 1:26:50. \n\n“Can you show me any published tweet where I have ever made a numeric comparison to $UBER ?”\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/Re3Xe7f1o0\n\n---\n\nEric in his own words. Checkmate. \n\nOn a comparable basis OPEN is valued at 22x revenues while $UBER is valued at 4x revenues, just for the record. Also $UBER has a pristine balance sheet, $OPEN not so much. Equivalent EV/sales would put $ OPEN at $1.80.\n@DavidDTawil @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @Realtor_Stocks @ericjackson", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02994435134207496, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02994435134207496, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.024648769269703386, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.024648769269703386, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005295582072371574, "bench_c_m1d": -0.005295582072371574, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010318630842806154, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.010318630842806154, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.008941745889546104, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.008941745889546104, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0013768849532600491, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0013768849532600491, "ret_p1w": 0.005462831804379897, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.005462831804379897, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.006307078824152379, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.006307078824152379, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011769910628532276, "bench_c_p1w": 0.011769910628532276, "ret_p1m": -0.04653513955617683, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.04653513955617683, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.05131044474264268, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.05131044474264268, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.00477530518646585, "bench_c_p1m": 0.00477530518646585, "ret_p3m": -0.135660053006734, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.135660053006734, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.18131033468643287, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.18131033468643287, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04565028167969887, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04565028167969887, "ret_p6m": -0.2679817731176254, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.2679817731176254, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.29847614260497346, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.29847614260497346, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.030494369487348072, "bench_c_p6m": 0.030494369487348072, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.04653513955617683, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.05131044474264268, "alpha_c_stated": -0.05131044474264268, "price_path": [-0.1559, -0.1559, -0.1525, -0.1377, -0.0728, -0.0804, -0.058, -0.0741, -0.0561, -0.068, -0.0688, -0.0528, -0.0528, -0.022, -0.0139, -0.0224, -0.0248, -0.035, -0.0502, -0.0672, -0.0819, -0.0845, -0.0836, -0.0778, -0.0714, -0.0901, -0.0807, -0.0765, -0.0835, -0.1188, -0.1134, -0.1123, -0.1208, -0.1054, -0.0957, -0.0974, -0.0625, -0.094, -0.0837, -0.072, -0.0811, -0.0754, -0.0632, -0.0493, -0.0357, -0.0518, -0.0467, -0.0208, -0.0373, -0.0235, -0.0356, -0.0292, -0.0516, -0.0516, -0.0611, -0.0598, -0.0695, -0.0795, -0.0454, -0.0344, -0.0469, -0.0422, -0.0299, 0.0, -0.0103, -0.0597, -0.042, -0.0034, 0.0055, -0.0106, -0.0108, -0.0126, -0.004, 0.0073, -0.0089, -0.0227, -0.0227, -0.0228, 0.0126, -0.0106, 0.0044, -0.0288, -0.0551, -0.0483, -0.0465, -0.0438, -0.064, -0.0663, -0.0521, -0.0589, -0.0672, -0.0429, -0.0484, -0.0246, -0.0346, -0.0313, -0.0239, -0.0238, 0.0088, -0.0423, -0.0617, -0.0681, -0.0694, -0.0481, -0.0531, -0.0534, -0.0715, -0.0731, -0.0682, -0.0808, -0.0943, -0.1567, -0.1515, -0.1534, -0.1534, -0.1334, -0.1334, -0.1144, -0.1242, -0.1141, -0.0827, -0.0795, -0.0762, -0.0635, -0.0989, -0.1486, -0.1357, -0.139, -0.1719, -0.1814, -0.1994, -0.1938, -0.1977, -0.1779, -0.1809, -0.1791, -0.1791, -0.1779, -0.1755, -0.1692, -0.1734, -0.1734, -0.1618, -0.1832, -0.1346, -0.1281, -0.1139, -0.1357, -0.1434, -0.136, -0.1437, -0.1464, -0.1416, -0.1416, -0.1531, -0.1476, -0.1648, -0.1673, -0.1707, -0.1781, -0.1929, -0.1735, -0.1902, -0.1822, -0.2116, -0.2522, -0.2392, -0.2436, -0.2523, -0.2564, -0.2816, -0.2795, -0.292, -0.292, -0.2865, -0.2638, -0.2621, -0.2528, -0.2846, -0.2779, -0.2632, -0.2433, -0.237, -0.2317, -0.2275, -0.2246, -0.2368, -0.24, -0.253, -0.268]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1989087578155348165", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-13T21:46:48+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "sales and earnings are collapsing. 14x revenues and $1.4T supported only by lies/promises of robotaxis, AI and robots", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: $9 cumulative EPS since inception, collapsing sales/earnings, $1.4T valuation rests on undelivered promises from Musk.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA has earned $9 of cumulative EPS since inception. NINE DOLLARS!!!\n\nLET THAT SINK IN.\n\nSo much for the $TSLA record. \nAs to the future, consider  that sales and earnings are collapsing. \n14x revenues and $1.4T supported only by lies/promises of robotaxis, AI and robots. \n\nFrom the same guy @elonmusk who LIED  about Tesla Cybertrucks , Tesla Semis, The Boring Company and Neuralink. \n\nWhat could possibly go wrong? \n\nSerious investors discuss fundamentals. Others instead focus on the stock price. \nI will respond to the former, and block the ladder.\n\n@GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$TSLA bulls say it doesn’t matter that TSLA Oct global volumes are down -30-35% YoY, since the business is transitioning to unsupervised autonomy and humanoid robots. That’s a fool’s narrative with 70%+ TSLA profits from EVs. \n\nWith EVs, TSLA had first mover advantage and clearly https://t.co/tSJTv4LC18", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0058365669185533875, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0058365669185533875, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0060004181346884344, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01064408854382437, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004807521625270983, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011302107716671506, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011302107716671506, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020618455232186972, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.020700482738195358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009398375021523853, "ret_p1w": -0.03279339573505624, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03279339573505624, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013595052235132021, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009448939789045818, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023344455946010423, "ret_p1m": 0.175491505833963, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12104994010517256, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05444156572879044, "ret_p3m": 0.05915662804276711, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03708219761959586, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022074430423171254, "ret_p6m": 0.10053170095928676, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10053170095928676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.005996684684012932, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.062402347566690386, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03812935339259638, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12104994010517256, "price_path": [-0.1856, -0.199, -0.2083, -0.1591, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1354, -0.1444, -0.1743, -0.1743, -0.1855, -0.1738, -0.1628, -0.1323, -0.1433, -0.1419, -0.1399, -0.0879, -0.0208, 0.0141, 0.0427, 0.0532, 0.0309, 0.0537, 0.0738, 0.0532, 0.0951, 0.0471, 0.0892, 0.0961, 0.0998, 0.1363, 0.0783, 0.063, 0.1209, 0.0711, 0.0849, 0.0771, 0.0226, 0.078, 0.0616, 0.0762, 0.0603, 0.0865, 0.1065, 0.0946, 0.0856, 0.1104, 0.0726, 0.1189, 0.139, 0.1414, 0.0884, 0.1291, 0.1583, 0.0987, 0.1427, 0.1028, 0.0622, 0.1011, 0.0872, 0.0649, -0.0058, 0.0, 0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0009, -0.0226, -0.0328, 0.0332, 0.0372, 0.055, 0.055, 0.0639, 0.0638, 0.0616, 0.1048, 0.1241, 0.1253, 0.0871, 0.101, 0.1165, 0.1052, 0.1351, 0.1755, 0.2115, 0.1556, 0.1954, 0.1901, 0.2087, 0.2008, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.1752, 0.1367, 0.1239, 0.1122, 0.1122, 0.0834, 0.117, 0.0708, 0.0669, 0.0778, 0.1006, 0.1103, 0.106, 0.0862, 0.0846, 0.082, 0.082, 0.0368, 0.067, 0.1113, 0.1106, 0.0763, 0.0657, 0.067, 0.0302, 0.0644, 0.0432, 0.0436, 0.0041, -0.0177, 0.0167, 0.0321, 0.0516, 0.0592, 0.0315, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0155, 0.0172, 0.0182, 0.0185, -0.0112, 0.0124, 0.0323, 0.0105, -0.0046, -0.0025, -0.0295, 0.0039, 0.003, -0.0188, -0.014, -0.0126, 0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0325, -0.0217, -0.0126, -0.0286, -0.0595, -0.09, -0.0581, -0.0527, -0.0455, -0.0797, -0.1052, -0.1214, -0.0806, -0.0571, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1274, -0.1427, -0.1511, -0.1452, -0.137, -0.1284, -0.0993, -0.0307, -0.0382, -0.0092, -0.0293, -0.0443, -0.0416, -0.0758, -0.0694, -0.0635, -0.0701, -0.078, -0.0562, -0.0335, -0.0293, -0.037, -0.0139, 0.0184, 0.0594, 0.1005]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1984722909789643016", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-01T20:43:10+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": true, "quote": "it is absurd that a company with mere cumulative profits of $35B could be valued at $1.5T. And to think that in 2026 unit deliveries will decline for a third consecutive year. 14x revenues and 200x times earnings for a publicly traded science experiment. What's not to like?", "tweet_type": "sarcasm", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Sarcastically bearish TSLA: $1.5T valuation absurd vs $35B cumulative profits, deliveries declining third year in 2026, 200x earnings.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "As I have been saying, it is absurd that a company with mere cumulative profits of $35B could be valued at $1.5T. And to think that in 2026 unit deliveries will decline for a third consecutive year. 14x revenues and 200x times earnings for a publicly traded science experiment. What’s not to like? $TSLA @elonmusk @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Tesla’s Cumulative Net Income (a.k.a. Retained Earnings) continues its upward trajectory. $TSLA 🎸🔊 https://t.co/CpPV6IyRLP", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02521510276429828, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.02521510276429828, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02334196850247605, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015924507298338608, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.001873134261822229, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009290595465959672, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05147636612701911, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05147636612701911, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.039622728708138544, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.034877184106597126, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01185363741888057, "bench_c_p1d": -0.016599182020421988, "ret_p1w": -0.04940535126523138, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04940535126523138, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04662478391421643, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03610953855854504, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.002780567351014951, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013295812706686339, "ret_p1m": -0.08354507182515414, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08354507182515414, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0808962605886181, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.059843680641246455, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0026488112365360417, "bench_c_p1m": -0.023701391183907683, "ret_p3m": -0.11061767000174882, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11061767000174882, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12927714564843684, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11342689983758125, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.018659475646688017, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0028092298358324275, "ret_p6m": -0.19717319014086154, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.19717319014086154, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24459071175881575, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.16733929731943542, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.047417521617954206, "bench_c_p6m": -0.029833892821426122, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.317, -0.3119, -0.2962, -0.2761, -0.2723, -0.2754, -0.2835, -0.2942, -0.2844, -0.2969, -0.3085, -0.3165, -0.2741, -0.26, -0.2492, -0.2536, -0.2613, -0.2872, -0.2872, -0.2968, -0.2867, -0.2772, -0.2509, -0.2604, -0.2592, -0.2574, -0.2126, -0.1546, -0.1245, -0.0998, -0.0908, -0.11, -0.0903, -0.0729, -0.0908, -0.0546, -0.096, -0.0597, -0.0537, -0.0505, -0.019, -0.0691, -0.0823, -0.0323, -0.0753, -0.0634, -0.0701, -0.1172, -0.0693, -0.0835, -0.0709, -0.0846, -0.062, -0.0447, -0.055, -0.0628, -0.0414, -0.074, -0.0341, -0.0167, -0.0146, -0.0604, -0.0252, 0.0, -0.0515, -0.0135, -0.048, -0.0829, -0.0494, -0.0614, -0.0806, -0.1417, -0.1367, -0.1269, -0.1433, -0.1375, -0.1562, -0.165, -0.108, -0.1046, -0.0892, -0.0892, -0.0816, -0.0816, -0.0835, -0.0462, -0.0295, -0.0285, -0.0615, -0.0495, -0.0361, -0.0459, -0.0201, 0.0148, 0.0459, -0.0024, 0.032, 0.0274, 0.0435, 0.0367, 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.0146, -0.0186, -0.0298, -0.0398, -0.0398, -0.0647, -0.0357, -0.0756, -0.0789, -0.0695, -0.0499, -0.0414, -0.0452, -0.0623, -0.0636, -0.0659, -0.0659, -0.1049, -0.0788, -0.0406, -0.0412, -0.0708, -0.08, -0.0788, -0.1106, -0.081, -0.0994, -0.0991, -0.1331, -0.1519, -0.1223, -0.109, -0.0921, -0.0856, -0.1095, -0.1087, -0.1087, -0.1233, -0.1218, -0.121, -0.1207, -0.1463, -0.1259, -0.1088, -0.1277, -0.1406, -0.1389, -0.1621, -0.1333, -0.1341, -0.153, -0.1488, -0.1476, -0.1293, -0.1566, -0.1648, -0.1555, -0.1475, -0.1614, -0.188, -0.2144, -0.1869, -0.1822, -0.176, -0.2055, -0.2275, -0.2415, -0.2063, -0.186, -0.2301, -0.2301, -0.2467, -0.2599, -0.2671, -0.2621, -0.255, -0.2476, -0.2224, -0.1632, -0.1697, -0.1447, -0.162, -0.175, -0.1726, -0.2021, -0.1966, -0.1915, -0.1972]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1966943977262744052", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-13T19:16:02+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Has lost money every year. Is valued at 22x EV/revenues. Is in a fiercely competitive, low margin business. Has yet to present a credible plan to generate profits that would come remotely close to justifying the current valuation.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: persistent losses, 22x EV/revenue, low-margin competitive business, no credible path to justify valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "But we do understand that $OPEN \n1) Has lost money every year \n2) Is valued at 22x EV/revenues\n3) Is in a fiercely competitive, low margin business\n4) Has yet to present a credible plan \nto generate profits that would come remotely close to justifying the current valuation. \n\nAny questions @APompliano ?\nPlease give this matter your immediate attention so that they \ncan make a well informed investment decision.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "It is shocking how many mainstream media outlets can’t understand that $OPEN is not a meme stock.\n\nIt is a company poised to be turned around by addressing one of the largest problems in society — buying and selling a home.\n\nIf you solve one of the biggest problems, history tells", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.04476042083805021, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04476042083805021, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.039464838765678634, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.045942607545745084, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005295582072371574, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0011821867076948767, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.060558169162239994, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.060558169162239994, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.059181284208979945, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0546480752450067, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0013768849532600491, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0059100939172332945, "ret_p1w": -0.11743020374481139, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11743020374481139, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.12920011437334367, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.11005543721782352, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011769910628532276, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007374766526987875, "ret_p1m": -0.19536598645933112, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17917743588908375, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.00477530518646585, "bench_c_p1m": -0.016188550570247373, "ret_p3m": -0.2575039204100267, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2575039204100267, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.30315420208972554, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22940478278500354, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04565028167969887, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02809913762502314, "ret_p6m": -0.4723538399930335, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4723538399930335, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5028482094803816, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5059291739360562, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.030494369487348072, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0335753339430227, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.19536598645933112, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20014129164579697, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17917743588908375, "price_path": [-0.9389, -0.9389, -0.9437, -0.9442, -0.9421, -0.9461, -0.9433, -0.9412, -0.9439, -0.9405, -0.9404, -0.9358, -0.9358, -0.9341, -0.9229, -0.9224, -0.907, -0.918, -0.9051, -0.8905, -0.8431, -0.8262, -0.763, -0.6619, -0.6967, -0.7588, -0.7451, -0.7325, -0.7536, -0.7841, -0.782, -0.8062, -0.7788, -0.7409, -0.7346, -0.7999, -0.8052, -0.7946, -0.7567, -0.7399, -0.7451, -0.6798, -0.6661, -0.6019, -0.6187, -0.6609, -0.6209, -0.4724, -0.5219, -0.505, -0.5766, -0.5503, -0.5313, -0.5313, -0.4639, -0.4597, -0.3723, -0.2996, -0.3639, -0.3565, -0.3828, 0.108, -0.0448, 0.0, -0.0606, 0.0753, 0.0469, 0.0079, -0.1174, -0.2533, -0.1332, -0.0427, -0.0721, -0.1364, -0.1606, -0.1511, -0.1564, -0.1459, -0.0226, -0.0216, -0.1058, -0.1427, -0.2027, -0.2343, -0.1954, -0.2227, -0.2512, -0.2459, -0.2238, -0.267, -0.2817, -0.2596, -0.1606, -0.1406, -0.1606, -0.1943, -0.227, -0.1817, -0.2006, -0.2712, -0.2385, -0.3091, -0.3091, -0.1606, -0.1069, -0.0132, -0.0985, -0.1448, -0.1743, -0.208, -0.2954, -0.3512, -0.2891, -0.1901, -0.1848, -0.1806, -0.1806, -0.189, -0.248, -0.2638, -0.2691, -0.2017, -0.247, -0.2575, -0.2196, -0.2628, -0.2575, -0.3091, -0.3186, -0.2912, -0.3555, -0.3386, -0.3302, -0.3239, -0.3397, -0.3386, -0.3386, -0.367, -0.386, -0.3849, -0.386, -0.386, -0.3607, -0.3344, -0.2701, -0.3555, -0.3228, -0.2322, -0.2607, -0.287, -0.3007, -0.3365, -0.2975, -0.2975, -0.327, -0.3175, -0.3239, -0.367, -0.3818, -0.3881, -0.3934, -0.4123, -0.4576, -0.4924, -0.4597, -0.4734, -0.505, -0.486, -0.4797, -0.5061, -0.4987, -0.5387, -0.5319, -0.5319, -0.544, -0.5124, -0.5103, -0.4734, -0.4966, -0.4618, -0.4755, -0.4302, -0.4292, -0.4681, -0.4766, -0.486, -0.4544, -0.4734, -0.465, -0.4724]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2001681994451726712", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-18T15:52:31+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the stock will fall precipitously as fair value is MUCH lower", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short BETR: balance sheet risks and ongoing share issuance will massively dilute the float, pushing stock to a much lower fair value.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Beware the $BETR balance sheet and the need for ongoing share issuance. The size of the float will massively increase and the stock will fall precipitously as fair value is MUCH lower. Looks like the @CedarStResearch “forgot” to mention this crucial detail. So much for the hyperbolic $12,000 price target from the financially illiterate @ericjackson .\n@vishalgarg1_0 @dayetweets @m3_melody", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009067715684966782, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009067715684966782, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0015730471859728423, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0015730471859728423, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007494668498993939, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.06574099276385781, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06574099276385781, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0748044989874449, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0748044989874449, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009063506223587092, "ret_p1w": 0.04845562595948438, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04845562595948438, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.024877209454856608, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.024877209454856608, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "bench_c_p1w": 0.023578416504627775, "ret_p1m": -0.03882127262794266, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03882127262794266, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06429739600035878, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06429739600035878, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "bench_c_p1m": 0.025476123372416115, "ret_p3m": -0.11533016425573628, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11533016425573628, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10986374957348932, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10986374957348932, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "bench_c_p3m": -0.005466414682246956, "ret_p6m": -0.24879570583355726, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24879570583355726, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3515402484707366, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3515402484707366, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10274454263717936, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03882127262794266, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06429739600035878, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06429739600035878, "price_path": [0.4163, 0.9198, 0.8988, 0.586, 0.5024, 0.6659, 0.5908, 0.6104, 0.6206, 0.7059, 0.638, 0.7115, 0.7631, 0.69, 0.6121, 0.4398, 0.4146, 0.6965, 0.6325, 0.7951, 1.3063, 1.1221, 0.8682, 1.4389, 1.2533, 1.2244, 1.1527, 1.2074, 1.0473, 1.0745, 1.0669, 0.8388, 0.7348, 0.7166, 0.6248, 0.8722, 0.798, 0.6764, 0.6268, 0.5939, 0.4914, 0.5463, 0.3769, 0.2539, 0.2766, 0.295, 0.2893, 0.3358, 0.3358, 0.3721, 0.2785, 0.2389, 0.2576, 0.4154, 0.2876, 0.3219, 0.3485, 0.4347, 0.376, 0.1836, 0.1227, 0.1017, -0.0091, 0.0, -0.0657, 0.036, 0.0179, 0.0485, 0.0485, -0.0102, -0.0332, -0.0657, -0.0768, -0.0768, -0.0156, 0.0286, -0.0077, -0.0428, 0.0609, 0.1298, 0.0859, 0.1006, 0.0691, 0.0394, -0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0969, -0.0745, -0.0898, -0.1119, -0.1947, -0.1318, -0.0966, -0.1065, -0.1411, -0.2386, -0.2111, -0.2199, -0.2839, -0.244, -0.2091, -0.1901, -0.1751, -0.1731, -0.1114, -0.1114, -0.1148, -0.0961, -0.1029, -0.1848, -0.2329, -0.195, -0.1235, -0.0581, -0.0677, -0.0082, -0.0674, -0.1097, -0.0536, -0.0986, 0.0113, 0.083, 0.1315, 0.0388, -0.0238, -0.1867, -0.1153, -0.1933, -0.1785, -0.2261, -0.1785, -0.1899, -0.1097, -0.0615, -0.1312, -0.0538, 0.0094, -0.0181, 0.0657, 0.0657, 0.1437, 0.2706, -0.0081, -0.0864, -0.072, -0.006, -0.0153, 0.0839, 0.0578, 0.1683, 0.3454, 0.3191, 0.3004, 0.1649, 0.2054, 0.1522, 0.1952, 0.1085, 0.1655, 0.2576, 0.178, 0.2023, 0.2097, -0.1352, -0.1479, -0.1201, -0.1391, -0.1782, -0.1754, -0.2349, -0.2902, -0.2842, -0.3103, -0.2907, -0.2743, -0.2743, -0.2499, -0.2375, -0.1984, -0.1734, -0.178, -0.1969, -0.2516, -0.2176, -0.274, -0.2788, -0.2905, -0.3276, -0.3171, -0.2488]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2002866298188083360", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-21T22:18:31+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "No matter how you slice it, $OPEN is wildly overvalued.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "OPEN is wildly overvalued on every metric — EV/revenue, EV/gross volume, and iBuyer comps all imply a far lower price.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "My calculation has zero errors.\n\nYou fail to grasp the difference in accounting between $OPEN and other companies. \nReal estate brokers such as Compass  (an imperfect comparison to $OPEN but close enough) record only their commissions as revenues, (estimated $7b for 2025 on $267b transaction volume with an EV of $6.2b) whereas $OPEN records their transaction volume (estimated $4.9b for 2025 and $350mm in net revenues and EV of about $7b)\nTo make a like for like comparison I use net revenues. You could alternatively use gross transaction volume, but on that basis if $OPEN is $6.36, then that would imply a price of for $COMP of $678; last sale was $10.58. Clearly that is ridiculous. $OPEN is valued at 1.4x gross transaction volume while by the same measure $COMP is valued at .022x gross transaction volume.\n\nHere is another way to think about it. \nImagine two ticket resellers. They each charge a 5% commission. Broker A books only his commission as revenues while broker B books the entire value of the ticket. In economic terms the transactions are identical, but broker B revenue will be 21x that of broker A. To blindly compare the stated revenue recorded on the income statement would be analytical malpractice. That is basically what @ericjackson does and why I have been so critical of him. \n\nFinally, we can compare $OPEN to $OPAD, which is a publicly traded Ibuyer. OPAD is valued at EV to sales of .3 and 1.2x book. Applying those metrics to $OPEN would imply a share price of 16 cents and $1.35 per share, respectively. \n\nNo matter how you slice it, $OPEN is wildly overvalued. I hope that helps.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Your calculation has a few errors.\n\nTreating contribution (or gross) profit as “sales” and then applying revenue multiples is a category error.\n\n0.9× isn’t a fair comp because you’re not valuing revenue—you’re valuing profit dollars while calling them “net sales.” Those metrics", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "MarkLStonk", "ret_m1d": -0.009345785368615966, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009345785368615966, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0031545516895949977, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.001980866791325475, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007364918577290491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023364500558389678, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023364500558389678, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027934992905720324, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.023115809487931793, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00024869107045788486, "ret_p1w": -0.09190033420193955, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09190033420193955, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09631017702703448, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10284842842346764, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010948094221528093, "ret_p1m": -0.004672929821157856, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.034780164832387994, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030107235011230138, "ret_p3m": -0.19937697735157223, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19937697735157223, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16282773267312123, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2424225098912084, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04304553253963617, "ret_p6m": -0.26012461938442555, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.26012461938442555, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35876109648465593, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3898369657490104, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12971234636458484, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_stated": 0.034780164832387994, "price_path": [0.2819, 0.4159, 0.3723, 0.2773, 0.2414, 0.2555, 0.2477, 0.2632, 0.4455, 0.447, 0.3224, 0.2679, 0.1791, 0.1324, 0.19, 0.1495, 0.1075, 0.1153, 0.148, 0.0841, 0.0623, 0.095, 0.2414, 0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1976694024615403790", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-10T16:59:15+00:00", "symbol": "CVNA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "When this finally happens it is going to be epic", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish CVNA: peers imploding on stretched consumers and student loan garnishments yet CVNA trades immune; expects a major downside catalyst. KMX already showing cracks.", "resolved_tickers": ["CVNA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto & Truck Dealerships'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto & Truck Dealerships", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$CVNA\nTri-Color imploded, Carmax took a huge hit on increased loss provisions and awful numbers, but Carvana is immune? Consumer is stretched, student loans are back in play and people are being garnished. When this finally happens it is going to be epic.\n@UnicusResearch what say you?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.09351836306802053, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.09351836306802053, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.06573970309593635, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.06523420908861688, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.027778659972084174, "bench_c_m1d": 0.028284153979403648, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.027457153884059116, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.027457153884059116, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.012113035748890777, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.005118301678864734, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015344118135168339, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02233885220519438, "ret_p1w": 0.013880474285842048, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.013880474285842048, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.003530994217104011, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.010906368356084606, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01741146850294606, "bench_c_p1w": 0.024786842641926654, "ret_p1m": -0.02113956840067155, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02113956840067155, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06466041770970599, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06577352035040407, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04352084930903444, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04463395194973252, "ret_p3m": 0.3691531833152992, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.3691531833152992, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.3100467721166065, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.3100091169978425, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.059106411198692754, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05914406631745672, "ret_p6m": -0.03763213244058017, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.03763213244058017, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.05242796026988494, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.0052044120571821395, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.014795827829304775, "bench_c_p6m": -0.04283654449776231, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02113956840067155, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06466041770970599, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06577352035040407, "price_path": [0.0582, 0.0692, 0.0512, 0.0555, 0.0385, 0.0374, 0.0418, -0.0096, 0.0087, 0.0215, 0.0221, 0.0132, 0.1851, 0.1171, 0.0954, 0.0653, 0.0779, 0.0866, 0.0556, 0.0486, 0.0482, 0.0627, 0.0405, 0.063, 0.0919, 0.0456, 0.0285, 0.0299, 0.0868, 0.0999, 0.1305, 0.1158, 0.1462, 0.1296, 0.1296, 0.1128, 0.1005, 0.1243, 0.1204, 0.1305, 0.139, 0.109, 0.0759, 0.0988, 0.1097, 0.1074, 0.1483, 0.1486, 0.1903, 0.1871, 0.1484, 0.1384, 0.128, 0.1216, 0.1926, 0.1458, 0.201, 0.1989, 0.1412, 0.1226, 0.1247, 0.0962, 0.0935, 0.0, 0.0275, 0.0506, 0.0795, 0.047, 0.0139, 0.0254, 0.0809, -0.0072, 0.0388, 0.0667, 0.0787, 0.1001, 0.0751, -0.0734, -0.0689, 0.0094, -0.0591, -0.0594, -0.1188, -0.0767, -0.0211, -0.0072, -0.0032, -0.0325, -0.0332, -0.0186, -0.0365, 0.0015, -0.0486, -0.0588, 0.005, 0.0668, 0.0853, 0.0853, 0.1375, 0.1398, 0.1608, 0.1997, 0.2114, 0.2142, 0.3606, 0.386, 0.4205, 0.4358, 0.384, 0.3605, 0.3825, 0.3553, 0.4146, 0.3675, 0.3169, 0.3284, 0.3412, 0.3412, 0.3318, 0.3168, 0.3047, 0.2818, 0.2818, 0.2157, 0.3062, 0.3377, 0.3692, 0.3442, 0.4065, 0.4109, 0.4231, 0.3929, 0.3998, 0.3459, 0.3459, 0.3434, 0.382, 0.4532, 0.4376, 0.4388, 0.451, 0.2454, 0.2983, 0.2183, 0.2389, 0.2464, 0.1938, 0.1654, 0.2261, 0.2502, 0.1897, 0.1058, 0.0453, 0.0414, 0.0414, 0.0659, 0.0981, 0.0108, 0.0224, -0.0126, -0.0124, 0.0172, 0.0749, 0.0149, -0.0186, -0.0311, -0.0394, 0.0058, -0.0351, -0.003, -0.0318, -0.06, -0.1112, -0.0884, -0.0707, -0.044, -0.1156, -0.1065, -0.1457, -0.09, -0.0859, -0.0628, -0.0846, -0.0826, -0.1168, -0.0451, -0.0521, -0.0466, -0.0466, -0.0376]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1976338144556650890", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-09T17:25:06+00:00", "symbol": "GC=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold - Own it, don't trade it.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Own gold as a long-term hold, not a trade.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The song remains the same.\nGold - Own it, don’t trade it. https://t.co/TOcpNN6678\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/j3aqrqBv44", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.018799757148786345, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.018799757148786345, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.015894365577906244, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015894365577906244, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0029053915708801004, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0029053915708801004, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010097700011942212, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010097700011942212, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.037125562190787886, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.037125562190787886, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.027027862178845674, "bench_c_p1d": -0.027027862178845674, "ret_p1w": 0.08488635348213402, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08488635348213402, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.10056066867814983, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10056066867814983, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01567431519601581, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01567431519601581, "ret_p1m": 0.007881139864093445, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.007881139864093445, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.00816428854713569, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.00816428854713569, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0002831486830422447, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0002831486830422447, "ret_p3m": 0.13066798280666858, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.13066798280666858, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09685454679648298, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09685454679648298, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.033813436010185605, "bench_c_p3m": 0.033813436010185605, "ret_p6m": 0.17508144451375895, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17508144451375895, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.19235855730678875, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.19235855730678875, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.017277112793029792, "bench_c_p6m": -0.017277112793029792, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.007881139864093445, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.00816428854713569, "alpha_c_stated": 0.00816428854713569, "price_path": [-0.1571, -0.1606, -0.1564, -0.1583, -0.1561, -0.1431, -0.135, -0.1457, -0.1509, -0.1588, -0.1642, -0.1619, -0.1764, -0.1709, -0.1541, -0.1492, -0.1485, -0.1503, -0.1431, -0.1433, -0.1557, -0.1564, -0.1538, -0.1592, -0.1587, -0.16, -0.1646, -0.1562, -0.1591, -0.1501, -0.1521, -0.146, -0.1443, -0.1379, -0.1296, -0.1296, -0.109, -0.102, -0.106, -0.0941, -0.0838, -0.0858, -0.0826, -0.0839, -0.0821, -0.0726, -0.0707, -0.0779, -0.0816, -0.0718, -0.0558, -0.0519, -0.0605, -0.0566, -0.0511, -0.0355, -0.0273, -0.0257, -0.0291, -0.0213, -0.0029, 0.0023, 0.0188, 0.0, 0.0101, 0.0346, 0.042, 0.0601, 0.0849, 0.0645, 0.1032, 0.0323, 0.0324, 0.0366, 0.0331, 0.0043, -0.0029, -0.0066, 0.0129, 0.0074, 0.0092, -0.0085, 0.003, 0.0018, 0.0079, 0.0354, 0.0395, 0.0563, 0.0477, 0.0288, 0.017, 0.0244, 0.0261, 0.0258, 0.0242, 0.0404, 0.0401, 0.0484, 0.0484, 0.0614, 0.0666, 0.0597, 0.0587, 0.0594, 0.0575, 0.0547, 0.0601, 0.0646, 0.0761, 0.0821, 0.0831, 0.0834, 0.0927, 0.0907, 0.0919, 0.1171, 0.1319, 0.1272, 0.1272, 0.1404, 0.0908, 0.0916, 0.0845, 0.0845, 0.0899, 0.1186, 0.1307, 0.1199, 0.126, 0.1342, 0.1554, 0.1538, 0.1656, 0.1584, 0.1529, 0.1529, 0.1965, 0.2139, 0.2363, 0.2533, 0.2717, 0.3028, 0.3534, 0.357, 0.2176, 0.1688, 0.2432, 0.2423, 0.2092, 0.2464, 0.278, 0.2654, 0.2797, 0.2352, 0.266, 0.266, 0.2265, 0.2541, 0.2576, 0.2824, 0.317, 0.2988, 0.2955, 0.3066, 0.3238, 0.3409, 0.2811, 0.2911, 0.2756, 0.2958, 0.2931, 0.3077, 0.3032, 0.2776, 0.2611, 0.26, 0.2568, 0.217, 0.1669, 0.1312, 0.1057, 0.1059, 0.1392, 0.0964, 0.1348, 0.1345, 0.1775, 0.1981, 0.1751, 0.1751]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1988626340451418254", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-12T15:14:01+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The warrants are just a cheap gimmick deigned to squeeze the shorts on a very short term basis. That will cause dilution. Ultimately the fundamentals will prevail - they always do.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: warrant distribution is a dilutive gimmick; short squeeze is transient and fundamentals will reassert downward pressure.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The warrants are just a cheap gimmick deigned to squeeze the shorts on a very short term basis. The warrants do NOT enhance the value of a share, as all shareholders will receive warrants on a pari passu basis. That will cause dilution. \nUltimately the fundamentals will prevail - they always do. $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.09498402926284033, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.09498402926284033, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.09442803834816771, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.10296095653273452, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0005559909146726216, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007976927269894185, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0864460486483829, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0864460486483829, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.06985214228719483, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07339313590175223, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01659390636118807, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013052912746630674, "ret_p1w": -0.2860191954184549, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.2860191954184549, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.255655463532511, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.2652311321066593, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.03036373188594388, "bench_c_p1w": -0.020788063311795613, "ret_p1m": -0.24759868977157307, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.24759868977157307, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.25607129249526206, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.233820541576653, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.008472602723688993, "bench_c_p1m": -0.01377814819492007, "ret_p3m": -0.47278547304638496, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.47278547304638496, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4912533047304466, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.5052183885307535, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.01846783168406163, "bench_c_p3m": 0.03243291548436855, "ret_p6m": -0.4322304976907748, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4322304976907748, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.508857914796888, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.524493965003492, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0766274171061132, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09226346731271717, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.24759868977157307, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.25607129249526206, "alpha_c_stated": 0.233820541576653, "price_path": [-0.6617, -0.5966, -0.6137, -0.6564, -0.6158, -0.4653, -0.5155, -0.4984, -0.571, -0.5443, -0.5251, -0.5251, -0.4568, -0.4525, -0.3639, -0.2903, -0.3554, -0.3479, -0.3746, 0.1227, -0.032, 0.0133, -0.048, 0.0896, 0.0608, 0.0213, -0.1057, -0.2433, -0.1217, -0.0299, -0.0598, -0.1249, -0.1494, -0.1398, -0.1451, -0.1345, -0.0096, -0.0085, -0.0939, -0.1313, -0.1921, -0.2241, -0.1846, -0.2124, -0.2412, -0.2359, -0.2134, -0.2572, -0.2721, -0.2497, -0.1494, -0.1291, -0.1494, -0.1836, -0.2166, -0.1708, -0.19, -0.2615, -0.2284, -0.2999, -0.2999, -0.1494, -0.095, 0.0, -0.0864, -0.1334, -0.1633, -0.1974, -0.286, -0.3426, -0.2796, -0.1793, -0.174, -0.1697, -0.1697, -0.1782, -0.238, -0.254, -0.2593, -0.191, -0.2369, -0.2476, -0.2092, -0.2529, -0.2476, -0.2999, -0.3095, -0.2818, -0.3469, -0.3298, -0.3212, -0.3148, -0.3308, -0.3298, -0.3298, -0.3586, -0.3778, -0.3767, -0.3778, -0.3778, -0.3522, -0.3255, -0.2604, -0.3469, -0.3138, -0.222, -0.2508, -0.2775, -0.2914, -0.3276, -0.2882, -0.2882, -0.318, -0.3084, -0.3148, -0.3586, -0.3735, -0.3799, -0.3853, -0.4045, -0.4504, -0.4856, -0.4525, -0.4664, -0.4984, -0.4792, -0.4728, -0.4995, -0.492, -0.5326, -0.5256, -0.5256, -0.5379, -0.5059, -0.5037, -0.4664, -0.4899, -0.4546, -0.4685, -0.4226, -0.4216, -0.461, -0.4696, -0.4792, -0.4472, -0.4664, -0.4578, -0.4653, -0.4376, -0.4835, -0.4717, -0.4472, -0.4066, -0.4365, -0.4514, -0.476, -0.444, -0.4472, -0.4557, -0.4771, -0.4877, -0.5272, -0.5005, -0.5123, -0.4941, -0.4941, -0.508, -0.5144, -0.5048, -0.54, -0.539, -0.5347, -0.5187, -0.4856, -0.4376, -0.4354, -0.429, -0.4184, -0.4205, -0.4429, -0.412, -0.4248, -0.4152, -0.4045, -0.4258, -0.4194, -0.4525, -0.4418, -0.4173, -0.4322]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2002867915453038858", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-21T22:24:57+00:00", "symbol": "Opendoor Technologies", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The stock is wildly overpriced based on the present. It should only be trading at a $1.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Opendoor wildly overpriced at $6.36; fair value ~$1 implying ~85% downside.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "exchange_ticker", "resolution_reason": "Opendoor Technologies trades as OPEN on NASDAQ", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@didgedillier The stock is wildly overpriced based on the present. It should only be trading at a $1. The present price of $6.36 already assumes a lot.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 I understand how you arrive at this valuation from that perspective.\nThat framing is internally consistent.\n\nThat said, I’d like to offer another way to look at it.\n\nI think the framing slightly misses where the market already is.\n\nAt this point, Opendoor is no longer being", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "didgedillier", "ret_m1d": -0.009345785368615966, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009345785368615966, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0031545516895949977, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.001980866791325475, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007364918577290491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023364500558389678, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023364500558389678, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027934992905720324, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.023115809487931793, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00024869107045788486, "ret_p1w": -0.09190033420193955, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09190033420193955, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09631017702703448, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10284842842346764, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010948094221528093, "ret_p1m": -0.004672929821157856, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.034780164832387994, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030107235011230138, "ret_p3m": -0.19937697735157223, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19937697735157223, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16282773267312123, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2424225098912084, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04304553253963617, "ret_p6m": -0.26012461938442555, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.26012461938442555, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35876109648465593, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3898369657490104, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12971234636458484, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_stated": 0.034780164832387994, "price_path": [0.2819, 0.4159, 0.3723, 0.2773, 0.2414, 0.2555, 0.2477, 0.2632, 0.4455, 0.447, 0.3224, 0.2679, 0.1791, 0.1324, 0.19, 0.1495, 0.1075, 0.1153, 0.148, 0.0841, 0.0623, 0.095, 0.2414, 0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2000230274316022006", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-14T15:43:54+00:00", "symbol": "ORCL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$ORCL stay short", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Maintain short position on ORCL.", "resolved_tickers": ["ORCL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$ORCL stay short. https://t.co/a6kORz4x18", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02730915612568907, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02730915612568907, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.025796061716083285, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.025796061716083285, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0015130944096057863, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0015130944096057863, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.020170947068210987, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.020170947068210987, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.02290332237059034, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.02290332237059034, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002732375302379353, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002732375302379353, "ret_p1w": 0.07278832913321476, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07278832913321476, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.06379275369356585, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06379275369356585, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008995575439648906, "bench_c_p1w": 0.008995575439648906, "ret_p1m": 0.0968242321354651, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0968242321354651, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.07465686112999537, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07465686112999537, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.022167371005469727, "bench_c_p1m": 0.022167371005469727, "ret_p3m": -0.13702822556073124, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.13702822556073124, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.11836898794623663, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11836898794623663, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.018659237614494617, "bench_c_p3m": -0.018659237614494617, "ret_p6m": 0.1198072412070239, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.1198072412070239, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.030907497792107996, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.030907497792107996, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08889974341491591, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08889974341491591, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0968242321354651, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.07465686112999537, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07465686112999537, "price_path": [0.6271, 0.6013, 0.6663, 0.7715, 0.6942, 0.6652, 0.5727, 0.5302, 0.5264, 0.5182, 0.5602, 0.5589, 0.5447, 0.5741, 0.5344, 0.5581, 0.6059, 0.5843, 0.6656, 0.6169, 0.6419, 0.6926, 0.5753, 0.4989, 0.4879, 0.4745, 0.5145, 0.5322, 0.5217, 0.5187, 0.4888, 0.3892, 0.4201, 0.3944, 0.342, 0.3536, 0.3184, 0.2939, 0.3023, 0.277, 0.2275, 0.1766, 0.2051, 0.1889, 0.1924, 0.2196, 0.1394, 0.0748, 0.0831, 0.0655, 0.1084, 0.1084, 0.0921, 0.0866, 0.0875, 0.1234, 0.159, 0.1766, 0.1926, 0.198, 0.206, 0.0753, 0.0273, 0.0, 0.0202, -0.0349, -0.0264, 0.0381, 0.0728, 0.0563, 0.068, 0.068, 0.0707, 0.0566, 0.0665, 0.054, 0.054, 0.0583, 0.0415, 0.0478, 0.0428, 0.0256, 0.0764, 0.1098, 0.0968, 0.0498, 0.0294, 0.0361, 0.0361, -0.0245, -0.0572, -0.0339, -0.0394, -0.0108, -0.0517, -0.0631, -0.0836, -0.1076, -0.1321, -0.1614, -0.2047, -0.26, -0.2256, -0.151, -0.1331, -0.1479, -0.1516, -0.1317, -0.1317, -0.1652, -0.1532, -0.1512, -0.1971, -0.2338, -0.2076, -0.1981, -0.185, -0.2116, -0.1908, -0.1921, -0.1738, -0.1607, -0.1706, -0.1782, -0.1899, -0.1156, -0.137, -0.159, -0.1543, -0.1613, -0.171, -0.1568, -0.1884, -0.1632, -0.2025, -0.2083, -0.2257, -0.2428, -0.2474, -0.2024, -0.2126, -0.2063, -0.2063, -0.2109, -0.2237, -0.2211, -0.2499, -0.2487, -0.1533, -0.1131, -0.0761, -0.0297, -0.0475, -0.0338, -0.0143, 0.0202, -0.0409, -0.0572, -0.0589, -0.097, -0.1086, -0.1219, -0.0651, -0.019, 0.0085, 0.0557, 0.0588, 0.0662, 0.0547, 0.0165, 0.0325, 0.0643, 0.0498, 0.0153, -0.0127, 0.0238, 0.0325, 0.0451, 0.0451, 0.0504, 0.039, 0.1083, 0.2285, 0.3502, 0.3308, 0.2532, 0.2859, 0.1626, 0.1525, 0.1198]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1989007573559771501", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-13T16:28:54+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "So $OPEN will lose money again in 2026 and is guiding to break even in 2027. So 25x sales (same as gross profits) for a company that will not make money until 2028. Is that about right", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: trading at 25x sales yet won't be profitable until 2028, making current valuation unjustifiable.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "From the recent $OPEN conference call:\n\n“Our next question comes from Zach H, who asks, when will we see a dramatic change in profitability?\n\nKasra Nejatian
CEO & Director\nNext year. The answer is next year, we're going to see a dramatic change in profitability.\n\nChristy Schwartz
Interim CFO\nZach, let me walk you through some of the details. So as we shared in the prepared remarks, we are driving the company to adjusted net income profitability exiting 2026 on a 12-month go-forward basis. \nThe framework to achieve that goal requires us to rescale acquisitions. We guided to rescaling acquisitions, growing them by 35% quarter-over-quarter for Q4 2025, and we are driving to exit Q4 2026 by buying somewhere around 6,000 homes. You can track that -- our progress against that goal and hold us accountable to that goal at https://t.co/3L0WSM4zAe, which will be updated weekly. \nOn the margin side, we expect to get contribution margin of 5% to 7% as we approach the acquisitions with renewed rigor, decreasing tail homes, improving days in possession and therefore, holding costs. In addition, as we get more shots on goal and buy more homes, we get the opportunity to attach more products and drive margin from ancillary services. \nWe expect financing costs of 2% to 3% of revenue. These costs are highly sensitive to our turns and will benefit from our faster resale velocity. We're targeting adjusted OpEx of 3% to 4% of revenue. We expect to leverage our existing fixed OpEx structure, as Kaz mentioned, to invest slightly more in marketing, but with the discipline that Kaz discussed earlier, and we expect to scale operations marginally as we rescale volumes. That's a framework.”\n\nSo $OPEN will lose money again in 2026 and is guiding to break even in 2027.\n\nSo 25x sales (same as gross profits) for a company that will not make money until 2028.  Is that about right @nejatian ? \n\nSerious investors focus on fundamentals. Alternative views welcome. On the other hand, financial illiterates who engage in ad hominem attacks and alternatively focus only on the stock price and narratives will be blocked. Every clown who has been blocked is guilty of the latter.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.09462610119575832, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.09462610119575832, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0777521907445966, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.08140055656908896, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01687391045116171, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013225544626669361, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05140192902903151, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05140192902903151, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05123810465571921, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05434094960361424, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0001638243733123046, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002939020574582729, "ret_p1w": -0.2803738848779236, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.2803738848779236, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.2513429055881997, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.2691076553283407, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02903097928972387, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011266229549582896, "ret_p1m": -0.23364490406493632, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.23364490406493632, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.24810833437149304, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.23168549306994346, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.014463430306556724, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0019594109949928606, "ret_p3m": -0.4521028239119562, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4521028239119562, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.48502511282690675, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.5127982364078725, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.032922288914950526, "bench_c_p3m": 0.06069541249591626, "ret_p6m": -0.4147196281205119, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4147196281205119, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5185526880621927, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5216780693854695, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1038330599416808, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10695844126495757, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.5584, -0.5771, -0.6238, -0.5794, -0.4147, -0.4696, -0.4509, -0.5304, -0.5012, -0.4801, -0.4801, -0.4054, -0.4007, -0.3037, -0.2231, -0.2944, -0.2862, -0.3154, 0.229, 0.0596, 0.1092, 0.0421, 0.1928, 0.1612, 0.118, -0.021, -0.1717, -0.0386, 0.0619, 0.0292, -0.0421, -0.0689, -0.0584, -0.0643, -0.0526, 0.0841, 0.0853, -0.0082, -0.0491, -0.1157, -0.1507, -0.1075, -0.1379, -0.1694, -0.1636, -0.139, -0.1869, -0.2033, -0.1787, -0.0689, -0.0467, -0.0689, -0.1063, -0.1425, -0.0923, -0.1133, -0.1916, -0.1554, -0.2336, -0.2336, -0.0689, -0.0093, 0.0946, 0.0, -0.0514, -0.0841, -0.1215, -0.2185, -0.2804, -0.2114, -0.1016, -0.0958, -0.0911, -0.0911, -0.1005, -0.1659, -0.1834, -0.1893, -0.1145, -0.1647, -0.1764, -0.1343, -0.1822, -0.1764, -0.2336, -0.2442, -0.2138, -0.285, -0.2664, -0.257, -0.25, -0.2675, -0.2664, -0.2664, -0.2979, -0.3189, -0.3178, -0.3189, -0.3189, -0.2909, -0.2617, -0.1904, -0.285, -0.2488, -0.1484, -0.1799, -0.2091, -0.2243, -0.264, -0.2208, -0.2208, -0.2535, -0.243, -0.25, -0.2979, -0.3143, -0.3213, -0.3271, -0.3481, -0.3984, -0.4369, -0.4007, -0.4159, -0.4509, -0.4299, -0.4229, -0.4521, -0.4439, -0.4883, -0.4807, -0.4807, -0.4942, -0.4591, -0.4568, -0.4159, -0.4416, -0.403, -0.4182, -0.368, -0.3668, -0.41, -0.4194, -0.4299, -0.3949, -0.4159, -0.4065, -0.4147, -0.3843, -0.4346, -0.4217, -0.3949, -0.3505, -0.3832, -0.3995, -0.4264, -0.3914, -0.3949, -0.4042, -0.4276, -0.4393, -0.4825, -0.4533, -0.4661, -0.4463, -0.4463, -0.4614, -0.4685, -0.4579, -0.4965, -0.4953, -0.4907, -0.4731, -0.4369, -0.3843, -0.382, -0.375, -0.3633, -0.3657, -0.3902, -0.3563, -0.3703, -0.3598, -0.3481, -0.3715, -0.3645, -0.4007, -0.389, -0.3621, -0.3785, -0.4147]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989384694216200381", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-14T17:27:26+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect earnings to collapse. $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA; expects earnings to collapse, calling current price-to-earnings a huge disconnect.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@steven_kravets I have been short before and been wrong. Timing is everything. Ultimately the stock price will follow earnings. Presently there is a huge disconnect. I expect earnings to collapse. $TSLA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Financial graveyard is full of Tesla shorts. What makes you think you can do better?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "steven_kravets", "ret_m1d": -0.0058365669185533875, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0058365669185533875, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0060004181346884344, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01064408854382437, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004807521625270983, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011302107716671506, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011302107716671506, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020618455232186972, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.020700482738195358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009398375021523853, "ret_p1w": -0.03279339573505624, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03279339573505624, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013595052235132021, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009448939789045818, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023344455946010423, "ret_p1m": 0.175491505833963, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12104994010517256, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05444156572879044, "ret_p3m": 0.05915662804276711, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03708219761959586, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022074430423171254, "ret_p6m": 0.10053170095928676, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10053170095928676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.005996684684012932, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.062402347566690386, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03812935339259638, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12104994010517256, "price_path": [-0.1856, -0.199, -0.2083, -0.1591, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1354, -0.1444, -0.1743, -0.1743, -0.1855, -0.1738, -0.1628, -0.1323, -0.1433, -0.1419, -0.1399, -0.0879, -0.0208, 0.0141, 0.0427, 0.0532, 0.0309, 0.0537, 0.0738, 0.0532, 0.0951, 0.0471, 0.0892, 0.0961, 0.0998, 0.1363, 0.0783, 0.063, 0.1209, 0.0711, 0.0849, 0.0771, 0.0226, 0.078, 0.0616, 0.0762, 0.0603, 0.0865, 0.1065, 0.0946, 0.0856, 0.1104, 0.0726, 0.1189, 0.139, 0.1414, 0.0884, 0.1291, 0.1583, 0.0987, 0.1427, 0.1028, 0.0622, 0.1011, 0.0872, 0.0649, -0.0058, 0.0, 0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0009, -0.0226, -0.0328, 0.0332, 0.0372, 0.055, 0.055, 0.0639, 0.0638, 0.0616, 0.1048, 0.1241, 0.1253, 0.0871, 0.101, 0.1165, 0.1052, 0.1351, 0.1755, 0.2115, 0.1556, 0.1954, 0.1901, 0.2087, 0.2008, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.1752, 0.1367, 0.1239, 0.1122, 0.1122, 0.0834, 0.117, 0.0708, 0.0669, 0.0778, 0.1006, 0.1103, 0.106, 0.0862, 0.0846, 0.082, 0.082, 0.0368, 0.067, 0.1113, 0.1106, 0.0763, 0.0657, 0.067, 0.0302, 0.0644, 0.0432, 0.0436, 0.0041, -0.0177, 0.0167, 0.0321, 0.0516, 0.0592, 0.0315, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0155, 0.0172, 0.0182, 0.0185, -0.0112, 0.0124, 0.0323, 0.0105, -0.0046, -0.0025, -0.0295, 0.0039, 0.003, -0.0188, -0.014, -0.0126, 0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0325, -0.0217, -0.0126, -0.0286, -0.0595, -0.09, -0.0581, -0.0527, -0.0455, -0.0797, -0.1052, -0.1214, -0.0806, -0.0571, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1274, -0.1427, -0.1511, -0.1452, -0.137, -0.1284, -0.0993, -0.0307, -0.0382, -0.0092, -0.0293, -0.0443, -0.0416, -0.0758, -0.0694, -0.0635, -0.0701, -0.078, -0.0562, -0.0335, -0.0293, -0.037, -0.0139, 0.0184, 0.0594, 0.1005]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1986504599834951725", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T18:42:58+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Attention all $OPEN shareholders. SELL is not a four letter word.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisive sell instruction to OPEN shareholders; bearish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Attention all $OPEN shareholders. SELL is not a four letter word.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.10213415886251664, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.10213415886251664, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.09128851999698817, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09722370075693876, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010845638865528473, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004910458105577886, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.013258015732235062, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013258015732235062, "ret_p1w": 0.3048781241284184, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.3048781241284184, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.30229726750913777, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.30242294315233065, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002580856619280647, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0024551809760877674, "ret_p1m": 0.08993904843509815, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08993904843509815, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0669945711432578, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0835555202052285, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02294447729184035, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0063835282298696505, "ret_p3m": -0.21798778061158286, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.21798778061158286, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.24970061521127507, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.23090233639055624, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03171283459969221, "bench_c_p3m": 0.01291455577897338, "ret_p6m": -0.17073169136104083, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17073169136104083, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.25195279432354956, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.27815908015770785, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08122110296250873, "bench_c_p6m": 0.10742738879666702, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.08993904843509815, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0669945711432578, "alpha_c_stated": -0.0835555202052285, "price_path": [-0.6479, -0.6235, -0.6311, -0.5366, -0.5168, -0.4238, -0.4482, -0.5091, -0.4512, -0.2363, -0.3079, -0.2835, -0.3872, -0.3491, -0.3216, -0.3216, -0.2241, -0.218, -0.0915, 0.0137, -0.0793, -0.0686, -0.1067, 0.6037, 0.3826, 0.4474, 0.3598, 0.5564, 0.5152, 0.4588, 0.2774, 0.0808, 0.2546, 0.3857, 0.343, 0.25, 0.2149, 0.2287, 0.221, 0.2363, 0.4146, 0.4162, 0.2942, 0.2409, 0.154, 0.1082, 0.1646, 0.125, 0.0838, 0.0915, 0.1235, 0.061, 0.0396, 0.0716, 0.2149, 0.2439, 0.2149, 0.1662, 0.1189, 0.1845, 0.157, 0.0549, 0.1021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2149, 0.2927, 0.4284, 0.3049, 0.2378, 0.1951, 0.1463, 0.0198, -0.061, 0.029, 0.1723, 0.1799, 0.186, 0.186, 0.1738, 0.0884, 0.0655, 0.0579, 0.1555, 0.0899, 0.0747, 0.1296, 0.0671, 0.0747, 0.0, -0.0137, 0.0259, -0.0671, -0.0427, -0.0305, -0.0213, -0.0442, -0.0427, -0.0427, -0.0838, -0.1113, -0.1098, -0.1113, -0.1113, -0.0747, -0.0366, 0.0564, -0.0671, -0.0198, 0.1113, 0.0701, 0.032, 0.0122, -0.0396, 0.0168, 0.0168, -0.0259, -0.0122, -0.0213, -0.0838, -0.1052, -0.1143, -0.122, -0.1494, -0.2149, -0.2652, -0.218, -0.2378, -0.2835, -0.2561, -0.247, -0.2851, -0.2744, -0.3323, -0.3224, -0.3224, -0.3399, -0.2942, -0.2912, -0.2378, -0.2713, -0.221, -0.2409, -0.1753, -0.1738, -0.2302, -0.2424, -0.2561, -0.2104, -0.2378, -0.2256, -0.2363, -0.1966, -0.2622, -0.2454, -0.2104, -0.1524, -0.1951, -0.2165, -0.2515, -0.2058, -0.2104, -0.2226, -0.253, -0.2683, -0.3247, -0.2866, -0.3034, -0.2774, -0.2774, -0.2973, -0.3064, -0.2927, -0.343, -0.3415, -0.3354, -0.3125, -0.2652, -0.1966, -0.1936, -0.1845, -0.1692, -0.1723, -0.2043, -0.1601, -0.1784, -0.1646, -0.1494, -0.1799, -0.1707]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2003070327115403470", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-22T11:49:15+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Fundamentals say $OPEN is only worth $1. The market has already discounted an enormous improvement.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: narrative-driven to $7 but fundamentals imply $1 fair value; market has priced in too much improvement.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@sukhanal @ericjackson Narrative has pushed the stock to $7.\nFundamentals say $OPEN is only worth $1. The market has already discounted an enormous improvement.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @ericjackson I care less about Eric Jackson wrt $OPEN at this point, we have A+ players at the helm of the company who are set to disrupt an industry that’s been too cumbersome for too long. @gnoble79 why not look at $OPEN from a fresh perspective and do away with the blood sucking RE agents?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "disclosuremonk", "ret_m1d": -0.009345785368615966, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009345785368615966, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0031545516895949977, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.001980866791325475, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007364918577290491, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023364500558389678, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023364500558389678, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027934992905720324, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.023115809487931793, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00024869107045788486, "ret_p1w": -0.09190033420193955, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09190033420193955, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09631017702703448, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10284842842346764, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010948094221528093, "ret_p1m": -0.004672929821157856, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.034780164832387994, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030107235011230138, "ret_p3m": -0.19937697735157223, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19937697735157223, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16282773267312123, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2424225098912084, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04304553253963617, "ret_p6m": -0.26012461938442555, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.26012461938442555, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35876109648465593, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3898369657490104, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.12971234636458484, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004672929821157856, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.00591363177910853, "alpha_c_stated": 0.034780164832387994, "price_path": [0.2819, 0.4159, 0.3723, 0.2773, 0.2414, 0.2555, 0.2477, 0.2632, 0.4455, 0.447, 0.3224, 0.2679, 0.1791, 0.1324, 0.19, 0.1495, 0.1075, 0.1153, 0.148, 0.0841, 0.0623, 0.095, 0.2414, 0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1972430618983018991", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-28T22:38:00+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "MAYBE a fair stock price is $2 today. And that is being very generous!", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: asset-heavy model, never earned a profit, book value $0.86/share; fair value at most $2, implying significant downside.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Completely disagree with you. Completely. \nThe comparison to Compass, while very imperfect, is far more relevant. You are silly/irresponsible to think otherwise. $OPEN has been unable to even generate “credit card” profit margins!\nAlso as they in the business of flipping houses, theirs is an asset heavy model and and so their flywheel can only move slowly. Book value is a mere $0.86 per share - earning 17 cents per share would equate to a 20% ROE, snd that is for a company that has never earned a profit! MAYBE a fair stock price is $2 today. And that is being very generous!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 2a. As mentioned prev, Compass as a comparable does not apply.  Open is a reseller, Compass is a broker and is a lot closer to the credit card co.  As you mention in your op, that's silly/irresponsible comparison.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "AsVladThinketh", "ret_m1d": 0.0743903200659013, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0743903200659013, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07719298310114497, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07629677675290591, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00280266303524368, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0019064566870046207, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02804878346626427, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03181552549497135, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03210035393166055, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003766742028707082, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004051570465396281, "ret_p1w": 0.13170731083258902, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.13170731083258902, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1197588327272987, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.13885694341547006, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011948478105290317, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007149632582881038, "ret_p1m": -0.02804878346626427, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06327656555789185, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.023997399670474096, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03522778209162758, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0040513837957901755, "ret_p3m": -0.23414629806300602, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.23414629806300602, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.27745029330204884, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2084544001679205, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.043303995239042825, "bench_c_p3m": -0.025691897895085525, "ret_p6m": -0.36829268916741087, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.36829268916741087, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35807569582166077, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.345511343770492, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.010216993345750103, "bench_c_p6m": -0.022781345396918895, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06327656555789185, "alpha_c_stated": 0.023997399670474096, "price_path": [-0.931, -0.9256, -0.9256, -0.9237, -0.9107, -0.9101, -0.8923, -0.905, -0.8901, -0.8732, -0.8183, -0.7988, -0.7256, -0.6085, -0.6488, -0.7207, -0.7049, -0.6902, -0.7146, -0.75, -0.7476, -0.7756, -0.7439, -0.7, -0.6927, -0.7683, -0.7744, -0.7622, -0.7183, -0.6988, -0.7049, -0.6293, -0.6134, -0.539, -0.5585, -0.6073, -0.561, -0.389, -0.4463, -0.4268, -0.5098, -0.4793, -0.4573, -0.4573, -0.3793, -0.3744, -0.2732, -0.189, -0.2634, -0.2549, -0.2854, 0.2829, 0.1061, 0.1579, 0.0878, 0.2451, 0.2122, 0.1671, 0.022, -0.1354, 0.0037, 0.1085, 0.0744, 0.0, -0.028, -0.0171, -0.0232, -0.011, 0.1317, 0.1329, 0.0354, -0.0073, -0.0768, -0.1134, -0.0683, -0.1, -0.1329, -0.1268, -0.1012, -0.1512, -0.1683, -0.1427, -0.028, -0.0049, -0.028, -0.0671, -0.1049, -0.0524, -0.0744, -0.1561, -0.1183, -0.2, -0.2, -0.028, 0.0341, 0.1427, 0.0439, -0.0098, -0.0439, -0.0829, -0.1841, -0.2488, -0.1768, -0.0622, -0.0561, -0.0512, -0.0512, -0.061, -0.1293, -0.1476, -0.1537, -0.0756, -0.128, -0.1402, -0.0963, -0.1463, -0.1402, -0.2, -0.211, -0.1793, -0.2537, -0.2341, -0.2244, -0.2171, -0.2354, -0.2341, -0.2341, -0.2671, -0.289, -0.2878, -0.289, -0.289, -0.2598, -0.2293, -0.1549, -0.2537, -0.2159, -0.111, -0.1439, -0.1744, -0.1902, -0.2317, -0.1866, -0.1866, -0.2207, -0.2098, -0.2171, -0.2671, -0.2841, -0.2915, -0.2976, -0.3195, -0.372, -0.4122, -0.3744, -0.3902, -0.4268, -0.4049, -0.3976, -0.428, -0.4195, -0.4659, -0.4579, -0.4579, -0.472, -0.4354, -0.4329, -0.3902, -0.4171, -0.3768, -0.3927, -0.3402, -0.339, -0.3841, -0.3939, -0.4049, -0.3683, -0.3902, -0.3805, -0.389, -0.3573, -0.4098, -0.3963, -0.3683, -0.322, -0.3561, -0.3732, -0.4012, -0.3646, -0.3683]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1986544120047841524", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T21:20:01+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Look out below.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN; dismisses results and warns of downside ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@MURATFIRAT1978 I am less interested in the $OPEN results and more interested in the hype that @nejatian serves up.\nLook out below.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "The winner is Mr. @gnoble79 👏🏽\n$OPEN \n#opendoor #earnings\n\nhttps://t.co/6XChAhTog9", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "MURATFIRAT1978", "ret_m1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013084540685971424, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "bench_c_m1d": -0.013084540685971424, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.21493900300472824, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.21493900300472824, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.19933472437758493, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.21566590084388682, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015604278627143309, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0007268978391585801, "ret_p1w": 0.23780487140043371, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.23780487140043371, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.23637414365355158, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.24555866977377683, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0014307277468821322, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007753798373343113, "ret_p1m": 0.07469516040082524, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07469516040082524, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.055826870726288114, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08753733854355761, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01886828967453713, "bench_c_p1m": -0.012842178142732363, "ret_p3m": -0.23780487140043371, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.23780487140043371, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2635104603005032, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2533880047894137, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.025705588900069465, "bench_c_p3m": 0.015583133388979986, "ret_p6m": -0.21798778061158286, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.21798778061158286, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2941884559767147, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.30500656190567366, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07620067536513186, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0870187812940908, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07469516040082524, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.055826870726288114, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08753733854355761, "price_path": [-0.6235, -0.6311, -0.5366, -0.5168, -0.4238, -0.4482, -0.5091, -0.4512, -0.2363, -0.3079, -0.2835, -0.3872, -0.3491, -0.3216, -0.3216, -0.2241, -0.218, -0.0915, 0.0137, -0.0793, -0.0686, -0.1067, 0.6037, 0.3826, 0.4474, 0.3598, 0.5564, 0.5152, 0.4588, 0.2774, 0.0808, 0.2546, 0.3857, 0.343, 0.25, 0.2149, 0.2287, 0.221, 0.2363, 0.4146, 0.4162, 0.2942, 0.2409, 0.154, 0.1082, 0.1646, 0.125, 0.0838, 0.0915, 0.1235, 0.061, 0.0396, 0.0716, 0.2149, 0.2439, 0.2149, 0.1662, 0.1189, 0.1845, 0.157, 0.0549, 0.1021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2149, 0.2927, 0.4284, 0.3049, 0.2378, 0.1951, 0.1463, 0.0198, -0.061, 0.029, 0.1723, 0.1799, 0.186, 0.186, 0.1738, 0.0884, 0.0655, 0.0579, 0.1555, 0.0899, 0.0747, 0.1296, 0.0671, 0.0747, 0.0, -0.0137, 0.0259, -0.0671, -0.0427, -0.0305, -0.0213, -0.0442, -0.0427, -0.0427, -0.0838, -0.1113, -0.1098, -0.1113, -0.1113, -0.0747, -0.0366, 0.0564, -0.0671, -0.0198, 0.1113, 0.0701, 0.032, 0.0122, -0.0396, 0.0168, 0.0168, -0.0259, -0.0122, -0.0213, -0.0838, -0.1052, -0.1143, -0.122, -0.1494, -0.2149, -0.2652, -0.218, -0.2378, -0.2835, -0.2561, -0.247, -0.2851, -0.2744, -0.3323, -0.3224, -0.3224, -0.3399, -0.2942, -0.2912, -0.2378, -0.2713, -0.221, -0.2409, -0.1753, -0.1738, -0.2302, -0.2424, -0.2561, -0.2104, -0.2378, -0.2256, -0.2363, -0.1966, -0.2622, -0.2454, -0.2104, -0.1524, -0.1951, -0.2165, -0.2515, -0.2058, -0.2104, -0.2226, -0.253, -0.2683, -0.3247, -0.2866, -0.3034, -0.2774, -0.2774, -0.2973, -0.3064, -0.2927, -0.343, -0.3415, -0.3354, -0.3125, -0.2652, -0.1966, -0.1936, -0.1845, -0.1692, -0.1723, -0.2043, -0.1601, -0.1784, -0.1646, -0.1494, -0.1799, -0.1707, -0.218]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986821962652369352", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-07T15:44:03+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short $TSLA from $445 yesterday. $TSLA will start losing money this quarter. 15x revenues and 270x collapsing earnings. Auto deliveries will fall again in 2026 for the third consecutive year.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Short TSLA from $445; expects losses this quarter, collapsing earnings, and falling deliveries in 2026; valuation unsustainable at 15x rev / 270x earnings.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Short $TSLA from $445 yesterday. \n$TSLA will start losing money this quarter. 15x revenues and 270x collapsing earnings. Auto deliveries will fall again in 2026 for the third consecutive year. \n\n“Optimus (which $TSLA will sell none in 2026-27) robotaxis and FSD autonomy fantasies that have yet to generate any real profit. It’s less a car company and more a faith-based initiative in perpetual beta.” - Gordon Johnson \n\nThe bulls cannot defend the valuation or deny that earnings estimates have gone from $8 to $1.65. \n\nUltimately, the stock price will follow earnings.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 Announces He Is Shorting @Tesla Because “The Company Is Not Fundamentally Worth It’s Valuation, &amp; @elonmusk Will Never Get Paid…” https://t.co/IuGSElIYb3", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.038158910103519794, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.038158910103519794, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03914241504805582, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03972758446467206, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015686743611522669, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03657576451501576, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03657576451501576, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020971485887872454, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.023432300025805874, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015604278627143309, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013143464489209888, "ret_p1w": -0.058600259717726644, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.058600259717726644, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.060030987464608776, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0375284261728005, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0014307277468821322, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021071833544926144, "ret_p1m": 0.023421488675521296, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.023421488675521296, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.004553199000984165, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.022912676653968456, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01886828967453713, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0005088120215528402, "ret_p3m": -0.054735471804313485, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.054735471804313485, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08044106070438295, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07515446659403413, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.025705588900069465, "bench_c_p3m": 0.020418994789720646, "ret_p6m": -0.08616590658105283, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.08616590658105283, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.1623665819461847, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.08837271113807688, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07620067536513186, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0022068045570240447, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.054735471804313485, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08044106070438295, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07515446659403413, "price_path": [-0.2065, -0.2099, -0.2187, -0.2304, -0.2197, -0.2333, -0.2459, -0.2547, -0.2084, -0.1931, -0.1812, -0.1861, -0.1945, -0.2227, -0.2227, -0.2332, -0.2222, -0.2118, -0.1832, -0.1935, -0.1922, -0.1903, -0.1413, -0.0782, -0.0454, -0.0184, -0.0085, -0.0295, -0.008, 0.0109, -0.0085, 0.0309, -0.0143, 0.0253, 0.0319, 0.0354, 0.0697, 0.0151, 0.0007, 0.0552, 0.0083, 0.0213, 0.014, -0.0373, 0.0149, -0.0007, 0.0131, -0.0018, 0.0228, 0.0417, 0.0305, 0.022, 0.0453, 0.0098, 0.0533, 0.0722, 0.0745, 0.0246, 0.063, 0.0904, 0.0343, 0.0758, 0.0382, 0.0, 0.0366, 0.0235, 0.0025, -0.0641, -0.0586, -0.048, -0.0658, -0.0594, -0.0798, -0.0895, -0.0273, -0.0236, -0.0068, -0.0068, 0.0015, 0.0014, -0.0007, 0.0401, 0.0582, 0.0593, 0.0234, 0.0364, 0.0511, 0.0404, 0.0685, 0.1066, 0.1405, 0.0879, 0.1254, 0.1203, 0.1379, 0.1305, 0.1301, 0.1301, 0.1063, 0.0701, 0.058, 0.047, 0.047, 0.0199, 0.0516, 0.008, 0.0044, 0.0146, 0.0361, 0.0453, 0.0412, 0.0225, 0.0211, 0.0186, 0.0186, -0.0239, 0.0045, 0.0462, 0.0455, 0.0132, 0.0032, 0.0045, -0.0302, 0.0021, -0.018, -0.0176, -0.0547, -0.0752, -0.0429, -0.0284, -0.01, -0.0029, -0.029, -0.0281, -0.0281, -0.044, -0.0424, -0.0415, -0.0412, -0.0691, -0.0469, -0.0282, -0.0488, -0.0629, -0.061, -0.0864, -0.0549, -0.0558, -0.0763, -0.0718, -0.0705, -0.0505, -0.0803, -0.0892, -0.0791, -0.0704, -0.0855, -0.1146, -0.1433, -0.1133, -0.1082, -0.1014, -0.1337, -0.1576, -0.1728, -0.1345, -0.1124, -0.1605, -0.1605, -0.1786, -0.1929, -0.2009, -0.1953, -0.1876, -0.1795, -0.1521, -0.0875, -0.0946, -0.0673, -0.0862, -0.1003, -0.0978, -0.1299, -0.1239, -0.1184, -0.1246, -0.1321, -0.1115, -0.0901, -0.0862]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1972438946203435486", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-28T23:11:05+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Fair value is more like $1.00. Ultimately the fundamentals will prevail. They always do.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish Opendoor; fair value ~$1 vs $9 current price, fundamentals will ultimately prevail.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@AsVladThinketh They have to articulate a plausible roadmap to profits that would even generate the current share price of $9, forget about $82. Fair value is more like $1.00. Ultimately the fundamentals will prevail. They always do.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 3.  What other resellers can you think of that can be applicable here?  I think your main disagreement is the current valuation is way too high based on the past.  Yet we know that markets value based on the future. No surprise that OPEN is currently high.  Just look at SPX.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "AsVladThinketh", "ret_m1d": 0.0743903200659013, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0743903200659013, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07719298310114497, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07629677675290591, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00280266303524368, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0019064566870046207, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02804878346626427, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03181552549497135, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03210035393166055, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003766742028707082, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004051570465396281, "ret_p1w": 0.13170731083258902, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.13170731083258902, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1197588327272987, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.13885694341547006, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011948478105290317, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007149632582881038, "ret_p1m": -0.02804878346626427, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06327656555789185, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.023997399670474096, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03522778209162758, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0040513837957901755, "ret_p3m": -0.23414629806300602, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.23414629806300602, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.27745029330204884, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2084544001679205, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.043303995239042825, "bench_c_p3m": -0.025691897895085525, "ret_p6m": -0.36829268916741087, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.36829268916741087, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35807569582166077, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.345511343770492, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.010216993345750103, "bench_c_p6m": -0.022781345396918895, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02804878346626427, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06327656555789185, "alpha_c_stated": 0.023997399670474096, "price_path": [-0.931, -0.9256, -0.9256, -0.9237, -0.9107, -0.9101, -0.8923, -0.905, -0.8901, -0.8732, -0.8183, -0.7988, -0.7256, -0.6085, -0.6488, -0.7207, -0.7049, -0.6902, -0.7146, -0.75, -0.7476, -0.7756, -0.7439, -0.7, -0.6927, -0.7683, -0.7744, -0.7622, -0.7183, -0.6988, -0.7049, -0.6293, -0.6134, -0.539, -0.5585, -0.6073, -0.561, -0.389, -0.4463, -0.4268, -0.5098, -0.4793, -0.4573, -0.4573, -0.3793, -0.3744, -0.2732, -0.189, -0.2634, -0.2549, -0.2854, 0.2829, 0.1061, 0.1579, 0.0878, 0.2451, 0.2122, 0.1671, 0.022, -0.1354, 0.0037, 0.1085, 0.0744, 0.0, -0.028, -0.0171, -0.0232, -0.011, 0.1317, 0.1329, 0.0354, -0.0073, -0.0768, -0.1134, -0.0683, -0.1, -0.1329, -0.1268, -0.1012, -0.1512, -0.1683, -0.1427, -0.028, -0.0049, -0.028, -0.0671, -0.1049, -0.0524, -0.0744, -0.1561, -0.1183, -0.2, -0.2, -0.028, 0.0341, 0.1427, 0.0439, -0.0098, -0.0439, -0.0829, -0.1841, -0.2488, -0.1768, -0.0622, -0.0561, -0.0512, -0.0512, -0.061, -0.1293, -0.1476, -0.1537, -0.0756, -0.128, -0.1402, -0.0963, -0.1463, -0.1402, -0.2, -0.211, -0.1793, -0.2537, -0.2341, -0.2244, -0.2171, -0.2354, -0.2341, -0.2341, -0.2671, -0.289, -0.2878, -0.289, -0.289, -0.2598, -0.2293, -0.1549, -0.2537, -0.2159, -0.111, -0.1439, -0.1744, -0.1902, -0.2317, -0.1866, -0.1866, -0.2207, -0.2098, -0.2171, -0.2671, -0.2841, -0.2915, -0.2976, -0.3195, -0.372, -0.4122, -0.3744, -0.3902, -0.4268, -0.4049, -0.3976, -0.428, -0.4195, -0.4659, -0.4579, -0.4579, -0.472, -0.4354, -0.4329, -0.3902, -0.4171, -0.3768, -0.3927, -0.3402, -0.339, -0.3841, -0.3939, -0.4049, -0.3683, -0.3902, -0.3805, -0.389, -0.3573, -0.4098, -0.3963, -0.3683, -0.322, -0.3561, -0.3732, -0.4012, -0.3646, -0.3683]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1973109621448466512", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-30T19:36:07+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You will get a lower price as 'The army' will bail on $OPEN once they come to understand that their general is guilty of analytical malpractice. $AMC 2.0 here we come.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: retail army will sell once they realize the thesis is flawed; predicts AMC-style collapse.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@SolyFinT You will get a lower price as “The army” will bail on $OPEN once they come to understand that their general is guilty of analytical malpractice. $AMC 2.0 here we come.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Can you please short it?  We need more at a lower price.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "SolyFinT", "ret_m1d": 0.028858221471541157, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.028858221471541157, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.032610828398020986, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03289344295276275, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.003752606926479829, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004035221481221596, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011292425570174958, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011292425570174958, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.007884853030736716, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.011292425570174958, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0034075725394382417, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.16562110494480153, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.16562110494480153, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1612077132872618, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.17986276236677756, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004413391657539734, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014241657421976028, "ret_p1m": -0.040150527383705725, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.040150527383705725, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07198884103668401, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.005021167714949204, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03183831365297829, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03512935966875652, "ret_p3m": -0.24592215971221287, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.24592215971221287, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2852056410731504, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.21821839213591332, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03928348136093751, "bench_c_p3m": -0.027703767576299554, "ret_p6m": -0.3601003715321388, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3601003715321388, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35166416529561684, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3328925358271635, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.00843620623652197, "bench_c_p6m": -0.027207835704975314, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.040150527383705725, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07198884103668401, "alpha_c_stated": 0.005021167714949204, "price_path": [-0.9235, -0.9235, -0.9215, -0.9082, -0.9075, -0.8892, -0.9023, -0.887, -0.8695, -0.813, -0.793, -0.7177, -0.5972, -0.6386, -0.7127, -0.6964, -0.6813, -0.7064, -0.7428, -0.7403, -0.7691, -0.7365, -0.6913, -0.6838, -0.7616, -0.7679, -0.7553, -0.7102, -0.6901, -0.6964, -0.6186, -0.6023, -0.5257, -0.5458, -0.596, -0.5483, -0.3714, -0.4304, -0.4103, -0.4956, -0.4642, -0.4417, -0.4417, -0.3614, -0.3563, -0.2522, -0.1656, -0.2422, -0.2334, -0.2647, 0.3199, 0.138, 0.1913, 0.1192, 0.2811, 0.2472, 0.2008, 0.0514, -0.1104, 0.0326, 0.1405, 0.1054, 0.0289, 0.0, 0.0113, 0.005, 0.0176, 0.1644, 0.1656, 0.0652, 0.0213, -0.0502, -0.0878, -0.0414, -0.074, -0.1079, -0.1016, -0.0753, -0.1267, -0.1443, -0.1179, 0.0, 0.0238, 0.0, -0.0402, -0.079, -0.0251, -0.0477, -0.1317, -0.0928, -0.1769, -0.1769, 0.0, 0.064, 0.1757, 0.074, 0.0188, -0.0163, -0.0565, -0.1606, -0.2271, -0.1531, -0.0351, -0.0289, -0.0238, -0.0238, -0.0339, -0.1041, -0.123, -0.1292, -0.0489, -0.1029, -0.1154, -0.0703, -0.1217, -0.1154, -0.1769, -0.1882, -0.1556, -0.2321, -0.212, -0.202, -0.1945, -0.2133, -0.212, -0.212, -0.2459, -0.2685, -0.2673, -0.2685, -0.2685, -0.2384, -0.207, -0.1305, -0.2321, -0.1932, -0.0853, -0.1192, -0.1506, -0.1669, -0.2095, -0.1631, -0.1631, -0.1982, -0.187, -0.1945, -0.2459, -0.2635, -0.271, -0.2773, -0.2999, -0.3538, -0.3952, -0.3563, -0.3726, -0.4103, -0.3877, -0.3802, -0.4115, -0.4028, -0.4504, -0.4423, -0.4423, -0.4567, -0.4191, -0.4166, -0.3726, -0.4003, -0.3588, -0.3752, -0.3212, -0.3199, -0.3664, -0.3764, -0.3877, -0.3501, -0.3726, -0.3626, -0.3714, -0.3388, -0.3927, -0.3789, -0.3501, -0.3024, -0.3375, -0.3551, -0.3839, -0.3463, -0.3501, -0.3601]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1988278257691877877", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-11T16:10:51+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is grossly overpriced", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: stock is grossly overpriced, price target implied around $3.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Sounds about right. $OPEN is grossly overpriced. https://t.co/VdDPV9hCgI\n\n---\n\nLet’s split the difference. $3 is in the middle. $OPEN https://t.co/97kFjkk7Wj", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.060141483440479204, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.060141483440479204, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05785735477384446, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.049110211986375885, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.002284128666634744, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01103127145410332, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.10495287634037354, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.10495287634037354, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.10439657612783693, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.11286667580748999, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000556300212536609, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007913799467116456, "ret_p1w": -0.11320750154859627, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11320750154859627, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07964964182130774, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.09234408746878775, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.03355785972728853, "bench_c_p1w": -0.020863414079808518, "ret_p1m": -0.17452825732653587, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.17452825732653587, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.18121926760880913, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.14766976260512577, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0066910102822732576, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02685849472141011, "ret_p3m": -0.4245282573265359, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4245282573265359, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4386727353576332, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.44248757823343343, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.014144478031097307, "bench_c_p3m": 0.017959320906897558, "ret_p6m": -0.356132036216234, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.356132036216234, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4366714041424181, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4480494683825268, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0805393679261841, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09191743216629278, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.17452825732653587, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.18121926760880913, "alpha_c_stated": 0.14766976260512577, "price_path": [-0.6415, -0.6262, -0.5542, -0.5731, -0.6203, -0.5755, -0.4092, -0.4646, -0.4458, -0.5259, -0.4965, -0.4752, -0.4752, -0.3998, -0.395, -0.2972, -0.2158, -0.2877, -0.2795, -0.309, 0.2406, 0.0696, 0.1197, 0.0519, 0.204, 0.1722, 0.1285, -0.0118, -0.1639, -0.0295, 0.0719, 0.0389, -0.033, -0.0601, -0.0495, -0.0554, -0.0436, 0.0943, 0.0955, 0.0012, -0.0401, -0.1073, -0.1427, -0.0991, -0.1297, -0.1616, -0.1557, -0.1309, -0.1792, -0.1958, -0.171, -0.0601, -0.0377, -0.0601, -0.0979, -0.1344, -0.0837, -0.105, -0.184, -0.1474, -0.2264, -0.2264, -0.0601, 0.0, 0.105, 0.0094, -0.0425, -0.0755, -0.1132, -0.2111, -0.2736, -0.204, -0.0932, -0.0873, -0.0825, -0.0825, -0.092, -0.158, -0.1757, -0.1816, -0.1061, -0.1568, -0.1686, -0.1262, -0.1745, -0.1686, -0.2264, -0.237, -0.2064, -0.2783, -0.2594, -0.25, -0.2429, -0.2606, -0.2594, -0.2594, -0.2913, -0.3125, -0.3113, -0.3125, -0.3125, -0.2842, -0.2547, -0.1828, -0.2783, -0.2417, -0.1403, -0.1722, -0.2017, -0.217, -0.2571, -0.2134, -0.2134, -0.2465, -0.2358, -0.2429, -0.2913, -0.3078, -0.3149, -0.3208, -0.342, -0.3927, -0.4316, -0.395, -0.4104, -0.4458, -0.4245, -0.4175, -0.4469, -0.4387, -0.4835, -0.4758, -0.4758, -0.4894, -0.454, -0.4517, -0.4104, -0.4363, -0.3974, -0.4127, -0.362, -0.3608, -0.4045, -0.4139, -0.4245, -0.3892, -0.4104, -0.4009, -0.4092, -0.3785, -0.4292, -0.4163, -0.3892, -0.3443, -0.3774, -0.3939, -0.421, -0.3856, -0.3892, -0.3986, -0.4222, -0.434, -0.4776, -0.4481, -0.4611, -0.441, -0.441, -0.4564, -0.4634, -0.4528, -0.4917, -0.4906, -0.4858, -0.4682, -0.4316, -0.3785, -0.3762, -0.3691, -0.3573, -0.3597, -0.3844, -0.3502, -0.3644, -0.3538, -0.342, -0.3656, -0.3585, -0.395, -0.3833, -0.3561]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1989161864392331449", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-14T02:41:59+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect $TSLA to get cut in half. Stay short.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Stay short TSLA; expects price to be cut in half from current levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@steven_kravets I expect $TSLA to get cut in half. Stay short.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Care to disclose your next move? Covering? Waiting and for what? Shorting further?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "steven_kravets", "ret_m1d": -0.0058365669185533875, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0058365669185533875, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0060004181346884344, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01064408854382437, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00016385121613504694, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004807521625270983, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011302107716671506, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011302107716671506, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020618455232186972, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.020700482738195358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.009316347515515466, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009398375021523853, "ret_p1w": -0.03279339573505624, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03279339573505624, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013595052235132021, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.009448939789045818, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01919834349992422, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023344455946010423, "ret_p1m": 0.175491505833963, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12104994010517256, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.013096740359109793, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05444156572879044, "ret_p3m": 0.05915662804276711, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05915662804276711, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02630386388465733, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03708219761959586, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03285276415810978, "bench_c_p3m": 0.022074430423171254, "ret_p6m": 0.10053170095928676, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.10053170095928676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.005996684684012932, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.062402347566690386, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1065283856432997, "bench_c_p6m": 0.03812935339259638, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.175491505833963, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1623947654748532, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12104994010517256, "price_path": [-0.1856, -0.199, -0.2083, -0.1591, -0.1428, -0.1303, -0.1354, -0.1444, -0.1743, -0.1743, -0.1855, -0.1738, -0.1628, -0.1323, -0.1433, -0.1419, -0.1399, -0.0879, -0.0208, 0.0141, 0.0427, 0.0532, 0.0309, 0.0537, 0.0738, 0.0532, 0.0951, 0.0471, 0.0892, 0.0961, 0.0998, 0.1363, 0.0783, 0.063, 0.1209, 0.0711, 0.0849, 0.0771, 0.0226, 0.078, 0.0616, 0.0762, 0.0603, 0.0865, 0.1065, 0.0946, 0.0856, 0.1104, 0.0726, 0.1189, 0.139, 0.1414, 0.0884, 0.1291, 0.1583, 0.0987, 0.1427, 0.1028, 0.0622, 0.1011, 0.0872, 0.0649, -0.0058, 0.0, 0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0009, -0.0226, -0.0328, 0.0332, 0.0372, 0.055, 0.055, 0.0639, 0.0638, 0.0616, 0.1048, 0.1241, 0.1253, 0.0871, 0.101, 0.1165, 0.1052, 0.1351, 0.1755, 0.2115, 0.1556, 0.1954, 0.1901, 0.2087, 0.2008, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.1752, 0.1367, 0.1239, 0.1122, 0.1122, 0.0834, 0.117, 0.0708, 0.0669, 0.0778, 0.1006, 0.1103, 0.106, 0.0862, 0.0846, 0.082, 0.082, 0.0368, 0.067, 0.1113, 0.1106, 0.0763, 0.0657, 0.067, 0.0302, 0.0644, 0.0432, 0.0436, 0.0041, -0.0177, 0.0167, 0.0321, 0.0516, 0.0592, 0.0315, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0155, 0.0172, 0.0182, 0.0185, -0.0112, 0.0124, 0.0323, 0.0105, -0.0046, -0.0025, -0.0295, 0.0039, 0.003, -0.0188, -0.014, -0.0126, 0.0086, -0.0231, -0.0325, -0.0217, -0.0126, -0.0286, -0.0595, -0.09, -0.0581, -0.0527, -0.0455, -0.0797, -0.1052, -0.1214, -0.0806, -0.0571, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1274, -0.1427, -0.1511, -0.1452, -0.137, -0.1284, -0.0993, -0.0307, -0.0382, -0.0092, -0.0293, -0.0443, -0.0416, -0.0758, -0.0694, -0.0635, -0.0701, -0.078, -0.0562, -0.0335, -0.0293, -0.037, -0.0139, 0.0184, 0.0594, 0.1005]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2000232612015788277", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-14T15:53:11+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$BETR short.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short BETR.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$BETR short. https://t.co/rJYS7zz3b6", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.054265562439191894, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.054265562439191894, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05275246802958611, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05275246802958611, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0015130944096057863, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0015130944096057863, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.018677382224107197, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.018677382224107197, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.015945006921727845, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.015945006921727845, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002732375302379353, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002732375302379353, "ret_p1w": -0.07723366080485106, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07723366080485106, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.08622923624449996, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08622923624449996, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008995575439648906, "bench_c_p1w": 0.008995575439648906, "ret_p1m": -0.019686996474630347, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.019686996474630347, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.041854367480100074, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.041854367480100074, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.022167371005469727, "bench_c_p1m": 0.022167371005469727, "ret_p3m": -0.07470972146065746, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07470972146065746, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.056050483846162846, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.056050483846162846, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.018659237614494617, "bench_c_p3m": -0.018659237614494617, "ret_p6m": -0.36799592148963833, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.36799592148963833, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.45689566490455424, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.45689566490455424, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08889974341491591, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08889974341491591, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.019686996474630347, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.041854367480100074, "alpha_c_stated": 0.041854367480100074, "price_path": [-0.287, -0.1918, -0.1396, 0.2615, 0.71, 0.6913, 0.4127, 0.3382, 0.4838, 0.417, 0.4344, 0.4435, 0.5194, 0.459, 0.5245, 0.5704, 0.5053, 0.4359, 0.2824, 0.26, 0.5111, 0.4541, 0.5989, 1.0543, 0.8902, 0.6641, 1.1724, 1.0071, 0.9813, 0.9175, 0.9662, 0.8236, 0.8478, 0.841, 0.6378, 0.5452, 0.529, 0.4472, 0.6676, 0.6015, 0.4932, 0.449, 0.4197, 0.3284, 0.3773, 0.2264, 0.1169, 0.1371, 0.1535, 0.1484, 0.1898, 0.1898, 0.2221, 0.1388, 0.1035, 0.1201, 0.2607, 0.1469, 0.1774, 0.2012, 0.2779, 0.2256, 0.0543, 0.0, -0.0187, -0.1174, -0.1093, -0.1678, -0.0772, -0.0934, -0.0661, -0.0661, -0.1184, -0.1388, -0.1678, -0.1777, -0.1777, -0.1232, -0.0838, -0.1161, -0.1474, -0.055, 0.0063, -0.0328, -0.0197, -0.0477, -0.0742, -0.1439, -0.1439, -0.1956, -0.1757, -0.1893, -0.209, -0.2827, -0.2267, -0.1954, -0.2042, -0.235, -0.3218, -0.2973, -0.3051, -0.3622, -0.3266, -0.2956, -0.2786, -0.2653, -0.2635, -0.2085, -0.2085, -0.2115, -0.1949, -0.2009, -0.2739, -0.3168, -0.2829, -0.2193, -0.161, -0.1696, -0.1166, -0.1694, -0.207, -0.157, -0.1971, -0.0992, -0.0353, 0.0078, -0.0747, -0.1305, -0.2756, -0.212, -0.2814, -0.2683, -0.3107, -0.2683, -0.2784, -0.207, -0.1641, -0.2261, -0.1572, -0.101, -0.1254, -0.0507, -0.0507, 0.0187, 0.1318, -0.1165, -0.1863, -0.1734, -0.1146, -0.1229, -0.0346, -0.0578, 0.0406, 0.1984, 0.1749, 0.1583, 0.0376, 0.0737, 0.0262, 0.0646, -0.0126, 0.0381, 0.1201, 0.0492, 0.0709, 0.0775, -0.2297, -0.241, -0.2163, -0.2332, -0.268, -0.2655, -0.3185, -0.3677, -0.3624, -0.3857, -0.3682, -0.3536, -0.3536, -0.3319, -0.3208, -0.286, -0.2638, -0.2678, -0.2847, -0.3334, -0.3031, -0.3534, -0.3576, -0.368]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1994430498437734685", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-28T15:37:40+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Buying $OPEN shares here is more or less buying ownership in these homes at an 800% premium to their underlying value... $OPEN is the posterchild for a failed concept - iBuying has been tried multiple times... and has never worked.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: trading at 800% premium to underlying home values, iBuying is a failed unscalable model, and capital destruction is likely.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "OpenDoor $OPEN is a home-flipper... A real estate owner with a net $800MM of homes on its balance sheet, trading at a $7B market cap. Buying $OPEN shares here is more or less buying ownership in these homes at an 800% premium to their underlying value. Insinuating that $OPEN shorts want to \"make home ownership harder\" is economically illiterate. \n\n$OPEN is the posterchild for a failed concept - iBuying has been tried multiple times, by various different entities, with all sorts of bells and whistles (\"muh AI\"), and has never worked. The business simply doesn't scale as local markets are nuanced and volumes and values are cyclical. \n\n$OPEN generated $568MM of operating losses during the rip-roaring real estate market of 2021. It didn't work then, and it's not going to work now.\n\nAll else equal, home affordability would actually improve if $OPEN was wound down with the remaining capital re-cycled into actually economically productive uses. But I'm sure the mgmt. team will find a way to incinerate what capital's left, and you'll be there cheering along the way.\n\n(This is a test of the X algo - h/t Rittenhouse Research)", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "There are two types of people in the world:\n\nThose who want to invest their capital in making it easier for American home ownership by seeing $OPEN succeed and those who want to profit by shorting the company and making home ownership harder.\n\nChoose wisely.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.010389662665569288, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.010389662665569288, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.015818464139112698, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.015189162067264839, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00542880147354341, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0047994994016955506, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07272726709755406, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07272726709755406, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.06816179679638956, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.058808559059222, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004565470301164498, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013918708038332062, "ret_p1w": -0.07142853604176846, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07142853604176846, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07479405976194331, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.055109937326045966, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0033655237201748456, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0163185987157225, "ret_p1m": -0.24285713401044207, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.24285713401044207, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.25235755910221214, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.22855534571360037, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.00950042509177007, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0143017882968417, "ret_p3m": -0.3532467347491063, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3532467347491063, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.37052560530625345, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.4071165032505858, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.017278870557147163, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05386976850147951, "ret_p6m": -0.4116882698675446, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.4116882698675446, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.508990925031894, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.49999578820295376, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09730265516434944, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08830751833540917, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.24285713401044207, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.25235755910221214, "alpha_c_stated": 0.22855534571360037, "price_path": [-0.339, -0.3338, -0.226, -0.1364, -0.2156, -0.2065, -0.239, 0.3662, 0.1779, 0.2331, 0.1584, 0.326, 0.2909, 0.2429, 0.0883, -0.0792, 0.0688, 0.1805, 0.1442, 0.0649, 0.0351, 0.0468, 0.0403, 0.0532, 0.2052, 0.2065, 0.1026, 0.0571, -0.0169, -0.0558, -0.0078, -0.0416, -0.0766, -0.0701, -0.0429, -0.0961, -0.1143, -0.087, 0.0351, 0.0597, 0.0351, -0.0065, -0.0468, 0.0091, -0.0143, -0.1013, -0.061, -0.1481, -0.1481, 0.0351, 0.1013, 0.2169, 0.1117, 0.0545, 0.0182, -0.0234, -0.1312, -0.2, -0.1234, -0.0013, 0.0052, 0.0104, 0.0104, 0.0, -0.0727, -0.0922, -0.0987, -0.0156, -0.0714, -0.0844, -0.0377, -0.0909, -0.0844, -0.1481, -0.1597, -0.126, -0.2052, -0.1844, -0.174, -0.1662, -0.1857, -0.1844, -0.1844, -0.2195, -0.2429, -0.2416, -0.2429, -0.2429, -0.2117, -0.1792, -0.1, -0.2052, -0.1649, -0.0532, -0.0883, -0.1208, -0.1377, -0.1818, -0.1338, -0.1338, -0.1701, -0.1584, -0.1662, -0.2195, -0.2377, -0.2455, -0.2519, -0.2753, -0.3312, -0.374, -0.3338, -0.3506, -0.3896, -0.3662, -0.3584, -0.3909, -0.3818, -0.4312, -0.4227, -0.4227, -0.4377, -0.3987, -0.3961, -0.3506, -0.3792, -0.3364, -0.3532, -0.2974, -0.2961, -0.3442, -0.3545, -0.3662, -0.3273, -0.3506, -0.3403, -0.3494, -0.3156, -0.3714, -0.3571, -0.3273, -0.2779, -0.3143, -0.3325, -0.3623, -0.3234, -0.3273, -0.3377, -0.3636, -0.3766, -0.4247, -0.3922, -0.4065, -0.3844, -0.3844, -0.4013, -0.4091, -0.3974, -0.4403, -0.439, -0.4338, -0.4143, -0.374, -0.3156, -0.313, -0.3052, -0.2922, -0.2948, -0.3221, -0.2844, -0.3, -0.2883, -0.2753, -0.3013, -0.2935, -0.3338, -0.3208, -0.2909, -0.3091, -0.3494, -0.3701, -0.3883, -0.4052, -0.4195, -0.4312, -0.4442, -0.4416, -0.4286, -0.4065, -0.4117, -0.4117]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1991187042043146276", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-19T16:49:19+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The $TSLA crash will be epic", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA; expects an epic crash, conditional on lack of regulatory approval for unsupervised robotaxis.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@jwolfgram @elonmusk @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @RealJimChanos The party is just getting started. The $TSLA crash will be epic. Wake me up when $TSLA receives regulatory approval for unsupervised robotaxis.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @elonmusk @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @RealJimChanos If I didn’t know any better, I’d say you’re enjoying the final days of these moronic posts… I can’t wait to see what you dream up next to make dumb comments on when Tesla scales to make Waymo look like a rounding error in the market. 🤣", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "jwolfgram", "ret_m1d": -0.0067823220886868985, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0067823220886868985, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.002934012146495135, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.00673774333974575, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0038483099421917633, "bench_c_m1d": -4.457874894114866e-05, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02168365419886953, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02168365419886953, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.00644142688222149, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.006762217064785303, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.015242227316648038, "bench_c_p1d": -0.014921437134084226, "ret_p1w": 0.05591721796073479, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05591721796073479, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.030186404993650218, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.009193287657557558, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02573081296708457, "bench_c_p1w": 0.04672393030317723, "ret_p1m": 0.19649002896522294, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.19649002896522294, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1756036880322298, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10665003864127276, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02088634093299313, "bench_c_p1m": 0.08983999032395018, "ret_p3m": 0.03329293431064517, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.03329293431064517, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0013981013883703763, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.003723152942820551, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.031894832922274796, "bench_c_p3m": 0.037016087253465724, "ret_p6m": 0.0973043850313915, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.0973043850313915, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.03821628844328062, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.035934899882439364, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13552067347467212, "bench_c_p6m": 0.06136948514895213, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.19649002896522294, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1756036880322298, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10665003864127276, "price_path": [-0.1584, -0.1421, -0.1295, -0.1346, -0.1436, -0.1736, -0.1736, -0.1847, -0.173, -0.162, -0.1316, -0.1426, -0.1411, -0.1391, -0.0871, -0.0199, 0.015, 0.0436, 0.0541, 0.0318, 0.0547, 0.0748, 0.0541, 0.096, 0.048, 0.0901, 0.0971, 0.1008, 0.1373, 0.0792, 0.064, 0.1219, 0.072, 0.0859, 0.0781, 0.0235, 0.079, 0.0625, 0.0771, 0.0613, 0.0874, 0.1075, 0.0956, 0.0866, 0.1114, 0.0736, 0.1199, 0.14, 0.1424, 0.0894, 0.1301, 0.1594, 0.0997, 0.1438, 0.1038, 0.0632, 0.1021, 0.0882, 0.0659, -0.005, 0.0009, 0.0122, -0.0068, 0.0, -0.0217, -0.0319, 0.0341, 0.0381, 0.0559, 0.0559, 0.0648, 0.0647, 0.0625, 0.1058, 0.1251, 0.1263, 0.0881, 0.1019, 0.1175, 0.1062, 0.1361, 0.1765, 0.2126, 0.1566, 0.1965, 0.1911, 0.2098, 0.2019, 0.2015, 0.2015, 0.1762, 0.1378, 0.1249, 0.1132, 0.1132, 0.0844, 0.118, 0.0717, 0.0679, 0.0787, 0.1015, 0.1113, 0.107, 0.0872, 0.0856, 0.0829, 0.0829, 0.0378, 0.0679, 0.1123, 0.1116, 0.0773, 0.0666, 0.068, 0.0311, 0.0654, 0.0441, 0.0445, 0.005, -0.0168, 0.0176, 0.033, 0.0525, 0.0601, 0.0324, 0.0333, 0.0333, 0.0164, 0.0181, 0.0191, 0.0194, -0.0103, 0.0133, 0.0332, 0.0114, -0.0037, -0.0017, -0.0286, 0.0048, 0.0039, -0.018, -0.0131, -0.0118, 0.0095, -0.0222, -0.0317, -0.0209, -0.0117, -0.0277, -0.0586, -0.0892, -0.0573, -0.0519, -0.0447, -0.0789, -0.1044, -0.1206, -0.0798, -0.0563, -0.1074, -0.1074, -0.1267, -0.1419, -0.1504, -0.1445, -0.1362, -0.1277, -0.0985, -0.0298, -0.0374, -0.0083, -0.0284, -0.0435, -0.0408, -0.0749, -0.0685, -0.0627, -0.0692, -0.0772, -0.0553, -0.0326, -0.0284, -0.0362, -0.013, 0.0193, 0.0603, 0.1015, 0.0729, 0.1022, 0.0973]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1985719826518618314", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-04T14:44:34+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Wake me up at 20% discount to NAV. SELL.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish MSTR with a sell instruction; waiting for 20% NAV discount before re-engaging.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I was reliably informed this would not happen. $MSTR. Wake me up at 20% discount to NAV. SELL.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$MSTR -34% in 6 months. https://t.co/FLkJkA6Woo", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.07158187595189824, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07158187595189824, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.059586044294007046, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.059586044294007046, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011995831657891198, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011995831657891198, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.032430439810074096, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.032430439810074096, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.028964963153919943, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.028964963153919943, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003465476656154154, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003465476656154154, "ret_p1w": -0.06332239783719229, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06332239783719229, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07481468545644343, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.07481468545644343, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01149228761925114, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01149228761925114, "ret_p1m": -0.23725658852676734, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.23725658852676734, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.2500669311481566, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2500669311481566, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012810342621389248, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012810342621389248, "ret_p3m": -0.3938620859781684, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3938620859781684, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.42166664855196834, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.42166664855196834, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02780456257379993, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02780456257379993, "ret_p6m": -0.3595287302190676, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3595287302190676, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.41934711897292865, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.41934711897292865, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05981838875386103, "bench_c_p6m": 0.05981838875386103, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.23725658852676734, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.2500669311481566, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2500669311481566, "price_path": [0.6276, 0.5998, 0.6205, 0.5968, 0.5786, 0.5099, 0.4831, 0.4721, 0.3627, 0.3943, 0.3668, 0.45, 0.3895, 0.4226, 0.3849, 0.3719, 0.3539, 0.3539, 0.3831, 0.3371, 0.3263, 0.3599, 0.3357, 0.3301, 0.3217, 0.32, 0.3419, 0.3271, 0.3567, 0.3349, 0.4135, 0.3958, 0.3601, 0.3271, 0.309, 0.2175, 0.2513, 0.3216, 0.3045, 0.3701, 0.4265, 0.4237, 0.4563, 0.3296, 0.3393, 0.2968, 0.234, 0.2773, 0.2173, 0.2015, 0.1492, 0.1736, 0.2009, 0.2224, 0.1369, 0.1536, 0.1704, 0.1969, 0.1524, 0.1149, 0.0307, 0.0912, 0.0716, 0.0, 0.0324, -0.0396, -0.0205, -0.0328, -0.0633, -0.0906, -0.1557, -0.1913, -0.2088, -0.1627, -0.2449, -0.2828, -0.3097, -0.2751, -0.3028, -0.2889, -0.2889, -0.2826, -0.306, -0.2658, -0.2373, -0.2469, -0.2753, -0.2563, -0.2348, -0.2524, -0.2579, -0.2856, -0.3438, -0.3218, -0.3507, -0.3593, -0.3327, -0.3347, -0.3608, -0.3574, -0.3574, -0.357, -0.3709, -0.37, -0.3848, -0.3848, -0.3637, -0.3331, -0.3604, -0.3448, -0.324, -0.363, -0.3432, -0.2996, -0.2739, -0.308, -0.2967, -0.2967, -0.3513, -0.3368, -0.3482, -0.3396, -0.3499, -0.3458, -0.3585, -0.4203, -0.3939, -0.4347, -0.4605, -0.4773, -0.5668, -0.4537, -0.4395, -0.4615, -0.4896, -0.502, -0.458, -0.458, -0.479, -0.4931, -0.4759, -0.4694, -0.4991, -0.4955, -0.4508, -0.4599, -0.4757, -0.4427, -0.4628, -0.4071, -0.4339, -0.4594, -0.4374, -0.4394, -0.4399, -0.4439, -0.4345, -0.4027, -0.3916, -0.4309, -0.4403, -0.4507, -0.4405, -0.4484, -0.4367, -0.4618, -0.4897, -0.5083, -0.4947, -0.5029, -0.5148, -0.5148, -0.483, -0.4991, -0.4805, -0.4783, -0.4792, -0.4641, -0.4437, -0.4188, -0.397, -0.3258, -0.3084, -0.3361, -0.2738, -0.3017, -0.3076, -0.315, -0.3291, -0.3595]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1994501456817537027", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-28T20:19:38+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "technical analysis suggests an 80% upside to $770-780 is possible", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "TA suggests 80% upside to $770-780 for TSLA despite overvalued fundamentals; Buy-rated via greater-fool framing.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "WHO WANTS TO PLAY GREATER FOOL THEORY?\n\n                Tesla, Inc. is rated Buy.\n                TSLA's fundamentals are overvalued as always, but technical analysis suggests an 80% upside to $770-780 is possible.  $TSLA @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen https://t.co/AVYfJmJZeP", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.008345599980022489, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.008345599980022489, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.002916798506479079, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0021711515747048216, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00542880147354341, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006174448405317667, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -6.973703038437584e-05, "ret_signed_p1d": -6.973703038437584e-05, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.004495733270780122, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0006617798579315881, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004565470301164498, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0005920428275472123, "ret_p1w": 0.057721332954875804, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.057721332954875804, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05435580923470096, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04503421869560875, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0033655237201748456, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012687114259267052, "ret_p1m": 0.0685077999414152, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0685077999414152, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05900737484964513, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04432194159843794, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.00950042509177007, "bench_c_p1m": 0.024185858342977262, "ret_p3m": -0.02968598259440336, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.02968598259440336, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.04696485315155052, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.02200636916720955, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.017278870557147163, "bench_c_p3m": -0.00767961342719381, "ret_p6m": -0.009670603557326407, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.009670603557326407, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.10697325872167585, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.0217324374969734, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09730265516434944, "bench_c_p6m": 0.012061833939646993, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0685077999414152, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05900737484964513, "alpha_c_stated": 0.04432194159843794, "price_path": [-0.2343, -0.2234, -0.213, -0.1844, -0.1947, -0.1934, -0.1915, -0.1426, -0.0796, -0.0468, -0.0199, -0.01, -0.031, -0.0095, 0.0094, -0.01, 0.0293, -0.0158, 0.0238, 0.0303, 0.0338, 0.0681, 0.0136, -0.0008, 0.0537, 0.0068, 0.0198, 0.0125, -0.0388, 0.0133, -0.0022, 0.0116, -0.0033, 0.0212, 0.0401, 0.0289, 0.0205, 0.0437, 0.0083, 0.0517, 0.0706, 0.0729, 0.0231, 0.0613, 0.0888, 0.0328, 0.0742, 0.0366, -0.0015, 0.035, 0.022, 0.001, -0.0655, -0.06, -0.0494, -0.0672, -0.0609, -0.0812, -0.0908, -0.0288, -0.025, -0.0083, -0.0083, 0.0, -0.0001, -0.0022, 0.0385, 0.0566, 0.0577, 0.0219, 0.0349, 0.0495, 0.0389, 0.0669, 0.1049, 0.1388, 0.0862, 0.1237, 0.1186, 0.1361, 0.1288, 0.1284, 0.1284, 0.1047, 0.0685, 0.0564, 0.0454, 0.0454, 0.0184, 0.05, 0.0065, 0.0029, 0.0131, 0.0345, 0.0437, 0.0396, 0.021, 0.0195, 0.017, 0.017, -0.0254, 0.003, 0.0446, 0.0439, 0.0117, 0.0017, 0.003, -0.0316, 0.0006, -0.0194, -0.0191, -0.0562, -0.0766, -0.0443, -0.0299, -0.0115, -0.0044, -0.0305, -0.0296, -0.0296, -0.0454, -0.0438, -0.0429, -0.0427, -0.0705, -0.0483, -0.0297, -0.0502, -0.0643, -0.0624, -0.0877, -0.0563, -0.0572, -0.0777, -0.0732, -0.0719, -0.052, -0.0817, -0.0906, -0.0805, -0.0718, -0.0869, -0.1159, -0.1446, -0.1147, -0.1096, -0.1028, -0.135, -0.1589, -0.1741, -0.1358, -0.1137, -0.1618, -0.1618, -0.1798, -0.1942, -0.2021, -0.1966, -0.1888, -0.1807, -0.1534, -0.0888, -0.0959, -0.0687, -0.0876, -0.1017, -0.0992, -0.1312, -0.1252, -0.1197, -0.1259, -0.1334, -0.1128, -0.0915, -0.0875, -0.0948, -0.0731, -0.0427, -0.0042, 0.0345, 0.0076, 0.0351, 0.0305, -0.0184, -0.0469, -0.0606, -0.03, -0.0286, -0.0097, -0.0097]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2001390525664940337", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-17T20:34:20+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "First target is $10.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish BETR with a first downside target of $10; calls prior buy thesis analytical malpractice.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "EVERYONE who bought $BETR as a result of the analytical malpractice of @ericjackson is now underwater. You were warned. First target is $10.\nYour attention to this matter is appreciated. @cvpayne @natbrunell @WallStreetMav @WallStreetApes @wallstreetbets @dayetweets @DougKass @m3_melody @DavidDTawil @business @jimcramer", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$BETR…stay tuned. You won’t believe what the Toronto guy did.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.11181011469617252, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.11181011469617252, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.10068409450392579, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.10068409450392579, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011126020192246733, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011126020192246733, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.009150691554302037, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.009150691554302037, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0015994288445497773, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0015994288445497773, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00755126270975226, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00755126270975226, "ret_p1w": 0.058049720001012384, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.058049720001012384, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.02674199396932586, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02674199396932586, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03130772603168652, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03130772603168652, "ret_p1m": 0.048899028446710346, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.048899028446710346, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.014812799246642916, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.014812799246642916, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.03408622920006743, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03408622920006743, "ret_p3m": -0.17929654672278572, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17929654672278572, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1787111114396911, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1787111114396911, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.0005854352830946263, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0005854352830946263, "ret_p6m": -0.31083787417193687, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.31083787417193687, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.41593290268337757, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.41593290268337757, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.1050950285114407, "bench_c_p6m": 0.1050950285114407, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.048899028446710346, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.014812799246642916, "alpha_c_stated": -0.014812799246642916, "price_path": [-0.0252, 0.4292, 0.9374, 0.9162, 0.6005, 0.5162, 0.6812, 0.6054, 0.6251, 0.6354, 0.7215, 0.653, 0.7272, 0.7792, 0.7055, 0.6268, 0.453, 0.4275, 0.712, 0.6474, 0.8116, 1.3274, 1.1415, 0.8853, 1.4613, 1.2739, 1.2448, 1.1724, 1.2276, 1.0661, 1.0935, 1.0858, 0.8556, 0.7506, 0.7323, 0.6397, 0.8893, 0.8144, 0.6917, 0.6417, 0.6085, 0.505, 0.5605, 0.3895, 0.2654, 0.2882, 0.3068, 0.3011, 0.348, 0.348, 0.3846, 0.2902, 0.2502, 0.2691, 0.4284, 0.2994, 0.334, 0.3609, 0.4478, 0.3886, 0.1945, 0.133, 0.1118, 0.0, 0.0092, -0.0572, 0.0455, 0.0272, 0.058, 0.058, -0.0011, -0.0243, -0.0572, -0.0683, -0.0683, -0.0066, 0.038, 0.0014, -0.034, 0.0706, 0.1401, 0.0958, 0.1107, 0.0789, 0.0489, -0.03, -0.03, -0.0886, -0.0661, -0.0815, -0.1038, -0.1873, -0.1238, -0.0884, -0.0984, -0.1333, -0.2316, -0.2039, -0.2128, -0.2774, -0.2371, -0.2019, -0.1827, -0.1676, -0.1656, -0.1032, -0.1032, -0.1067, -0.0878, -0.0947, -0.1773, -0.2259, -0.1876, -0.1155, -0.0495, -0.0592, 0.0009, -0.0589, -0.1015, -0.0449, -0.0904, 0.0206, 0.0929, 0.1418, 0.0483, -0.0149, -0.1793, -0.1072, -0.1859, -0.171, -0.219, -0.171, -0.1824, -0.1015, -0.0529, -0.1232, -0.0452, 0.0186, -0.0092, 0.0755, 0.0755, 0.1541, 0.2822, 0.001, -0.0781, -0.0635, 0.0031, -0.0063, 0.0938, 0.0675, 0.179, 0.3577, 0.3311, 0.3123, 0.1756, 0.2165, 0.1627, 0.2062, 0.1187, 0.1762, 0.2691, 0.1887, 0.2133, 0.2208, -0.1273, -0.1401, -0.1121, -0.1313, -0.1707, -0.1679, -0.2279, -0.2837, -0.2777, -0.304, -0.2842, -0.2677, -0.2677, -0.2431, -0.2305, -0.191, -0.1659, -0.1704, -0.1896, -0.2448, -0.2105, -0.2674, -0.2722, -0.284, -0.3214, -0.3108]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986603498297856265", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-07T01:15:57+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA represents everything that is wrong with markets - a stock that is detached from fundamentals and insanely overvalued", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: insanely overvalued, detached from fundamentals, CEO over-promises and under-delivers.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TRUTH. $TSLA represents everything that is wrong with markets - a stock that is detached from fundamentals and insanely overvalued, narrative chasing shareholders who are oblivious to valuation and a promotional, self aggrandizing CEO who is constantly over promising and and under delivering  (to put it mildly).", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@JCOviedo6 Now he’s saying he needs to build a huge semiconductor fab to meet the demand for millions of Optimus robots. Obvious nonsense. He needs to raise capital  to sustain #tesla through  the massive cash burn that will start this quarter and  go on until it runs out of cash. The", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.038158910103519794, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.038158910103519794, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03914241504805582, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03972758446467206, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0009835049445360289, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015686743611522669, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.03657576451501576, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03657576451501576, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020971485887872454, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.023432300025805874, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.015604278627143309, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013143464489209888, "ret_p1w": -0.058600259717726644, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.058600259717726644, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.060030987464608776, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0375284261728005, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0014307277468821322, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021071833544926144, "ret_p1m": 0.023421488675521296, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.023421488675521296, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.004553199000984165, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.022912676653968456, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01886828967453713, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0005088120215528402, "ret_p3m": -0.054735471804313485, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.054735471804313485, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08044106070438295, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07515446659403413, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.025705588900069465, "bench_c_p3m": 0.020418994789720646, "ret_p6m": -0.08616590658105283, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.08616590658105283, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.1623665819461847, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.08837271113807688, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07620067536513186, "bench_c_p6m": 0.0022068045570240447, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.023421488675521296, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.004553199000984165, "alpha_c_stated": -0.022912676653968456, "price_path": [-0.2065, -0.2099, -0.2187, -0.2304, -0.2197, -0.2333, -0.2459, -0.2547, -0.2084, -0.1931, -0.1812, -0.1861, -0.1945, -0.2227, -0.2227, -0.2332, -0.2222, -0.2118, -0.1832, -0.1935, -0.1922, -0.1903, -0.1413, -0.0782, -0.0454, -0.0184, -0.0085, -0.0295, -0.008, 0.0109, -0.0085, 0.0309, -0.0143, 0.0253, 0.0319, 0.0354, 0.0697, 0.0151, 0.0007, 0.0552, 0.0083, 0.0213, 0.014, -0.0373, 0.0149, -0.0007, 0.0131, -0.0018, 0.0228, 0.0417, 0.0305, 0.022, 0.0453, 0.0098, 0.0533, 0.0722, 0.0745, 0.0246, 0.063, 0.0904, 0.0343, 0.0758, 0.0382, 0.0, 0.0366, 0.0235, 0.0025, -0.0641, -0.0586, -0.048, -0.0658, -0.0594, -0.0798, -0.0895, -0.0273, -0.0236, -0.0068, -0.0068, 0.0015, 0.0014, -0.0007, 0.0401, 0.0582, 0.0593, 0.0234, 0.0364, 0.0511, 0.0404, 0.0685, 0.1066, 0.1405, 0.0879, 0.1254, 0.1203, 0.1379, 0.1305, 0.1301, 0.1301, 0.1063, 0.0701, 0.058, 0.047, 0.047, 0.0199, 0.0516, 0.008, 0.0044, 0.0146, 0.0361, 0.0453, 0.0412, 0.0225, 0.0211, 0.0186, 0.0186, -0.0239, 0.0045, 0.0462, 0.0455, 0.0132, 0.0032, 0.0045, -0.0302, 0.0021, -0.018, -0.0176, -0.0547, -0.0752, -0.0429, -0.0284, -0.01, -0.0029, -0.029, -0.0281, -0.0281, -0.044, -0.0424, -0.0415, -0.0412, -0.0691, -0.0469, -0.0282, -0.0488, -0.0629, -0.061, -0.0864, -0.0549, -0.0558, -0.0763, -0.0718, -0.0705, -0.0505, -0.0803, -0.0892, -0.0791, -0.0704, -0.0855, -0.1146, -0.1433, -0.1133, -0.1082, -0.1014, -0.1337, -0.1576, -0.1728, -0.1345, -0.1124, -0.1605, -0.1605, -0.1786, -0.1929, -0.2009, -0.1953, -0.1876, -0.1795, -0.1521, -0.0875, -0.0946, -0.0673, -0.0862, -0.1003, -0.0978, -0.1299, -0.1239, -0.1184, -0.1246, -0.1321, -0.1115, -0.0901, -0.0862]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1984014249237344506", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-30T21:47:12+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the stronger my belief becomes that $OPEN will crash", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on OPEN; author expects it to crash, dismissing the CEO's tweets as trivial and vacuous.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The more I’m reading these posts the stronger my belief becomes that $OPEN will crash. Amazed by the triviality and vacuousness of the tweets by @nejatian . There, I fixed it for you. @dayetweets", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@nejatian The more I’m reading these posts the stronger my belief gets in OPEN. Love the transparency and the courage that’s being displayed by Kaz.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.05534103338406304, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.05534103338406304, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05207153626909922, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.054851923312560835, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0032694971149638263, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0004891100715022079, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023166001130048852, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023166001130048852, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02504265060830624, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.021454403140992118, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0018766494782573861, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0017115979890567345, "ret_p1w": -0.1557271610189489, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.1557271610189489, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.13946746716211345, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.16477349500586536, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.016259693856835455, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009046333986916455, "ret_p1m": -0.08108109600867663, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08108109600867663, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07845663793982371, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0857265883968773, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0026244580688529195, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004645492388200667, "ret_p3m": -0.25868722741039185, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.25868722741039185, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2812875946378247, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2683801863606704, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02260036722743286, "bench_c_p3m": 0.009692958950278552, "ret_p6m": -0.30630632178677575, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.30630632178677575, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.36082073794478287, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3884775798290122, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05451441615800712, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08217125804223646, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08108109600867663, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07845663793982371, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0857265883968773, "price_path": [-0.6757, -0.7555, -0.7619, -0.749, -0.7027, -0.6821, -0.6885, -0.6088, -0.592, -0.5135, -0.5341, -0.5856, -0.5367, -0.3552, -0.4157, -0.3951, -0.4826, -0.4505, -0.4273, -0.4273, -0.3449, -0.3398, -0.2329, -0.1441, -0.2227, -0.2136, -0.2458, 0.3539, 0.1673, 0.222, 0.148, 0.314, 0.2793, 0.2317, 0.0785, -0.0875, 0.0592, 0.1699, 0.1338, 0.0553, 0.0257, 0.0373, 0.0309, 0.0438, 0.1943, 0.1956, 0.0927, 0.0476, -0.0257, -0.0644, -0.0167, -0.0502, -0.0849, -0.0785, -0.0515, -0.1042, -0.1223, -0.0952, 0.0257, 0.0502, 0.0257, -0.0154, -0.0553, 0.0, -0.0232, -0.1094, -0.0695, -0.1557, -0.1557, 0.0257, 0.0914, 0.2059, 0.1017, 0.045, 0.009, -0.0322, -0.139, -0.2072, -0.1313, -0.0103, -0.0039, 0.0013, 0.0013, -0.009, -0.0811, -0.1004, -0.1068, -0.0245, -0.0798, -0.0927, -0.0463, -0.0991, -0.0927, -0.1557, -0.1673, -0.1338, -0.2124, -0.1918, -0.1815, -0.1737, -0.1931, -0.1918, -0.1918, -0.2265, -0.2497, -0.2484, -0.2497, -0.2497, -0.2188, -0.1866, -0.1081, -0.2124, -0.1725, -0.0618, -0.0965, -0.1287, -0.1454, -0.1892, -0.1416, -0.1416, -0.1776, -0.166, -0.1737, -0.2265, -0.2445, -0.2523, -0.2587, -0.2819, -0.3372, -0.3797, -0.3398, -0.3565, -0.3951, -0.3719, -0.3642, -0.3964, -0.3874, -0.4363, -0.4279, -0.4279, -0.4427, -0.4041, -0.4015, -0.3565, -0.3848, -0.3423, -0.3591, -0.3037, -0.3024, -0.3501, -0.3604, -0.3719, -0.3333, -0.3565, -0.3462, -0.3552, -0.3218, -0.3771, -0.3629, -0.3333, -0.2844, -0.3205, -0.3385, -0.3681, -0.3295, -0.3333, -0.3436, -0.3694, -0.3822, -0.4299, -0.3977, -0.4118, -0.39, -0.39, -0.4067, -0.4144, -0.4028, -0.4453, -0.444, -0.4389, -0.4196, -0.3797, -0.3218, -0.3192, -0.3115, -0.2986, -0.3012, -0.3282, -0.2909, -0.3063]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2005004950095737315", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-27T19:56:45+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "For those of you who believe that $TSLA is not a car company, you may want to consider what @RealJimChanos has to say.", "tweet_type": "news_reaction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses Chanos's bearish view that TSLA's AI/robotics narrative is overstated given its minimal AI spend vs. hyperscalers.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "For those of you who believe that $TSLA is not a car company, you may want to consider what @RealJimChanos has to say.\n\nTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION THIS MATTER.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "What’s so ridiculous about this view that $TSLA is an AI/robotics “leader”, is that you can quantify just how little Tesla is actually spending on AI. For the LTM it’s below $3B, or less than 1% of the Big Four hyperscalers. https://t.co/THIqHDvO7T", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03383079648725196, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03383079648725196, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.030254397934510457, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02390106206676501, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009929734420486946, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.011335005235871831, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011335005235871831, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010113791622506807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007280395372829984, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004054609863041847, "ret_p1w": -0.017339659226142667, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.017339659226142667, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.017150723475002683, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012788562642076506, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004551096584066161, "ret_p1m": -0.06252723835181184, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07775270436193038, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015225466010118538, "ret_p3m": -0.19043169982453256, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19043169982453256, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13082826865138253, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09277859946366851, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09765310036086405, "ret_p6m": -0.16976335134041243, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.16976335134041243, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24191352582498715, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11486610533000619, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05489724601040624, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07775270436193038, "price_path": [-0.0004, -0.0514, -0.0649, -0.0139, -0.0578, -0.0456, -0.0524, -0.1004, -0.0516, -0.0661, -0.0533, -0.0672, -0.0442, -0.0266, -0.0371, -0.045, -0.0232, -0.0564, -0.0157, 0.002, 0.0041, -0.0425, -0.0067, 0.019, -0.0335, 0.0053, -0.0299, -0.0655, -0.0314, -0.0436, -0.0632, -0.1254, -0.1203, -0.1103, -0.127, -0.1211, -0.1401, -0.1491, -0.0911, -0.0875, -0.0719, -0.0719, -0.0641, -0.0642, -0.0661, -0.0281, -0.0111, -0.0101, -0.0436, -0.0315, -0.0178, -0.0277, -0.0015, 0.0341, 0.0658, 0.0166, 0.0516, 0.0469, 0.0633, 0.0564, 0.056, 0.056, 0.0338, 0.0, -0.0113, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0469, -0.0173, -0.058, -0.0614, -0.0519, -0.0318, -0.0232, -0.0271, -0.0445, -0.0458, -0.0482, -0.0482, -0.0879, -0.0614, -0.0224, -0.023, -0.0532, -0.0625, -0.0613, -0.0937, -0.0636, -0.0823, -0.082, -0.1167, -0.1358, -0.1056, -0.0921, -0.0749, -0.0682, -0.0926, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.1066, -0.1051, -0.1043, -0.104, -0.1301, -0.1093, -0.0919, -0.1111, -0.1243, -0.1225, -0.1462, -0.1168, -0.1177, -0.1369, -0.1326, -0.1314, -0.1127, -0.1406, -0.1489, -0.1394, -0.1313, -0.1455, -0.1726, -0.1995, -0.1714, -0.1667, -0.1603, -0.1904, -0.2128, -0.227, -0.1912, -0.1705, -0.2155, -0.2155, -0.2324, -0.2458, -0.2532, -0.2481, -0.2408, -0.2333, -0.2076, -0.1473, -0.1539, -0.1284, -0.1461, -0.1593, -0.1569, -0.1869, -0.1813, -0.1762, -0.1819, -0.1889, -0.1697, -0.1497, -0.146, -0.1529, -0.1325, -0.1041, -0.0681, -0.0319, -0.057, -0.0313, -0.0355, -0.0814, -0.108, -0.1208, -0.0922, -0.0909, -0.0732, -0.0732, -0.0567, -0.0419, -0.0382, -0.0519, -0.0952, -0.0781, -0.0782, -0.0896, -0.1493, -0.1103, -0.137, -0.1698, -0.1316, -0.1158, -0.1055, -0.1196, -0.1376, -0.1287, -0.1287, -0.1188, -0.1698]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1988283211970228261", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-11T16:30:32+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Perhaps 1-2$? $OPEN", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Implies OPEN heading to $1-2, a sharply lower price target.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "EXACTLY. Perhaps 1-2$? $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.060141483440479204, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.060141483440479204, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05785735477384446, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.049110211986375885, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.002284128666634744, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01103127145410332, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.10495287634037354, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.10495287634037354, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.10439657612783693, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.11286667580748999, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000556300212536609, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007913799467116456, "ret_p1w": -0.11320750154859627, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11320750154859627, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07964964182130774, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.09234408746878775, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.03355785972728853, "bench_c_p1w": -0.020863414079808518, "ret_p1m": -0.17452825732653587, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.17452825732653587, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.18121926760880913, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.14766976260512577, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0066910102822732576, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02685849472141011, "ret_p3m": -0.4245282573265359, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4245282573265359, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.4386727353576332, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.44248757823343343, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.014144478031097307, "bench_c_p3m": 0.017959320906897558, "ret_p6m": -0.356132036216234, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.356132036216234, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4366714041424181, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.4480494683825268, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0805393679261841, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09191743216629278, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.17452825732653587, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.18121926760880913, "alpha_c_stated": 0.14766976260512577, "price_path": [-0.6415, -0.6262, -0.5542, -0.5731, -0.6203, -0.5755, -0.4092, -0.4646, -0.4458, -0.5259, -0.4965, -0.4752, -0.4752, -0.3998, -0.395, -0.2972, -0.2158, -0.2877, -0.2795, -0.309, 0.2406, 0.0696, 0.1197, 0.0519, 0.204, 0.1722, 0.1285, -0.0118, -0.1639, -0.0295, 0.0719, 0.0389, -0.033, -0.0601, -0.0495, -0.0554, -0.0436, 0.0943, 0.0955, 0.0012, -0.0401, -0.1073, -0.1427, -0.0991, -0.1297, -0.1616, -0.1557, -0.1309, -0.1792, -0.1958, -0.171, -0.0601, -0.0377, -0.0601, -0.0979, -0.1344, -0.0837, -0.105, -0.184, -0.1474, -0.2264, -0.2264, -0.0601, 0.0, 0.105, 0.0094, -0.0425, -0.0755, -0.1132, -0.2111, -0.2736, -0.204, -0.0932, -0.0873, -0.0825, -0.0825, -0.092, -0.158, -0.1757, -0.1816, -0.1061, -0.1568, -0.1686, -0.1262, -0.1745, -0.1686, -0.2264, -0.237, -0.2064, -0.2783, -0.2594, -0.25, -0.2429, -0.2606, -0.2594, -0.2594, -0.2913, -0.3125, -0.3113, -0.3125, -0.3125, -0.2842, -0.2547, -0.1828, -0.2783, -0.2417, -0.1403, -0.1722, -0.2017, -0.217, -0.2571, -0.2134, -0.2134, -0.2465, -0.2358, -0.2429, -0.2913, -0.3078, -0.3149, -0.3208, -0.342, -0.3927, -0.4316, -0.395, -0.4104, -0.4458, -0.4245, -0.4175, -0.4469, -0.4387, -0.4835, -0.4758, -0.4758, -0.4894, -0.454, -0.4517, -0.4104, -0.4363, -0.3974, -0.4127, -0.362, -0.3608, -0.4045, -0.4139, -0.4245, -0.3892, -0.4104, -0.4009, -0.4092, -0.3785, -0.4292, -0.4163, -0.3892, -0.3443, -0.3774, -0.3939, -0.421, -0.3856, -0.3892, -0.3986, -0.4222, -0.434, -0.4776, -0.4481, -0.4611, -0.441, -0.441, -0.4564, -0.4634, -0.4528, -0.4917, -0.4906, -0.4858, -0.4682, -0.4316, -0.3785, -0.3762, -0.3691, -0.3573, -0.3597, -0.3844, -0.3502, -0.3644, -0.3538, -0.342, -0.3656, -0.3585, -0.395, -0.3833, -0.3561]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2002734548535116171", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-21T13:35:00+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "a large increase in the float will have on the share price... will now exacerbate the present decline", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish BETR: float expansion will exacerbate the ongoing price decline.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You fail to comprehend the impact that a large increase in the float will have on the share price. One needs to focus on the float, not shares outstanding. The low float was a major factor in the share price rise a few months ago, and will now exacerbate the present decline. Do you not understand this? $BETR", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@leocibean My friend there are 16 MM or so shares outstanding. He is using the wrong denominator on purpose to be inflammatory and provocative. I view investors on X like my customers. And we are a customer first company. I would never enter the frey typically on something like this. But,", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "vishal_better", "ret_m1d": -0.09819474884403512, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.09819474884403512, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.09200351516501415, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.09200351516501415, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.017505557448180498, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.017505557448180498, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.022076049795511143, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.022076049795511143, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "ret_p1w": -0.06673967039806505, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06673967039806505, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07114951322315999, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.07114951322315999, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "ret_p1m": -0.12828228550023812, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.12828228550023812, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11769572389997174, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11769572389997174, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "ret_p3m": -0.20705692882449211, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20705692882449211, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.17050768414604112, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.17050768414604112, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "ret_p6m": -0.1999453254569994, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1999453254569994, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.29858180255722977, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.29858180255722977, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.12828228550023812, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11769572389997174, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11769572389997174, "price_path": [0.8329, 0.5309, 0.4502, 0.608, 0.5356, 0.5544, 0.5643, 0.6466, 0.5811, 0.6521, 0.7019, 0.6313, 0.5561, 0.3898, 0.3654, 0.6376, 0.5758, 0.7328, 1.2262, 1.0484, 0.8033, 1.3542, 1.1751, 1.1472, 1.078, 1.1307, 0.9762, 1.0025, 0.9951, 0.7749, 0.6745, 0.657, 0.5684, 0.8072, 0.7355, 0.6182, 0.5703, 0.5386, 0.4396, 0.4926, 0.329, 0.2103, 0.2322, 0.25, 0.2445, 0.2894, 0.2894, 0.3244, 0.2341, 0.1958, 0.2139, 0.3662, 0.2429, 0.276, 0.3017, 0.3848, 0.3282, 0.1425, 0.0837, 0.0635, -0.0435, -0.0347, -0.0982, 0.0, -0.0175, 0.012, 0.012, -0.0446, -0.0667, -0.0982, -0.1089, -0.1089, -0.0498, -0.0071, -0.0421, -0.076, 0.0241, 0.0905, 0.0481, 0.0624, 0.032, 0.0033, -0.0722, -0.0722, -0.1283, -0.1067, -0.1214, -0.1428, -0.2226, -0.1619, -0.128, -0.1376, -0.171, -0.265, -0.2385, -0.247, -0.3088, -0.2702, -0.2366, -0.2183, -0.2038, -0.2019, -0.1422, -0.1422, -0.1455, -0.1275, -0.134, -0.2131, -0.2596, -0.2229, -0.154, -0.0908, -0.1001, -0.0427, -0.0998, -0.1406, -0.0864, -0.1299, -0.0238, 0.0454, 0.0922, 0.0027, -0.0577, -0.215, -0.1461, -0.2213, -0.2071, -0.253, -0.2071, -0.218, -0.1406, -0.0941, -0.1614, -0.0867, -0.0257, -0.0522, 0.0287, 0.0287, 0.1039, 0.2265, -0.0425, -0.1182, -0.1042, -0.0405, -0.0495, 0.0462, 0.0211, 0.1277, 0.2987, 0.2732, 0.2552, 0.1245, 0.1636, 0.1121, 0.1537, 0.07, 0.125, 0.2139, 0.137, 0.1606, 0.1677, -0.1652, -0.1775, -0.1507, -0.169, -0.2068, -0.204, -0.2615, -0.3148, -0.3091, -0.3342, -0.3154, -0.2995, -0.2995, -0.276, -0.2639, -0.2262, -0.2021, -0.2065, -0.2248, -0.2776, -0.2448, -0.2992, -0.3039, -0.3151, -0.3509, -0.3408, -0.2749, -0.2114, -0.1999]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2004290906808258633", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-25T20:39:24+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "already more than discounted in the share price if $TSLA!!! The auto business is only worth maybe $60B yet the market cap is $1.7T!", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: AI/FSD optionality already over-discounted; auto core worth ~$60B vs $1.7T market cap implies massive overvaluation.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@emycarlu You fail to comprehend that is \nalready more than discounted in the share price if $TSLA!!! The auto business is only worth maybe $60B yet the market cap is $1.7T!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 So what?\n1) Software/AI products (FSD) already generate cash. \n2) Robotaxi and autonomous mobility services are live and expanding.\n3) Tesla has massive data and computational infrastructure fueling its AI roadmap.\nYou don’t need revenues from Optimus tomorrow to acknowledge that", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "emycarlu", "ret_m1d": 0.021486124292644515, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.021486124292644515, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021384704342229277, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01706180290772985, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010141995041523799, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0044243213849146645, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03272372674735757, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03272372674735757, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.029160073239862805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.022891622510734844, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0035636535074947684, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00983210423662273, "ret_p1w": -0.07811611129542784, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07811611129542784, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06777287631722473, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.047800582087406784, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010343234978203109, "bench_c_p1w": -0.030315529208021053, "ret_p1m": -0.08415579037630527, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0863679196883711, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.003505699250114569, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0022121293120658247, "ret_p3m": -0.1877985432687609, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1877985432687609, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.14188259400824654, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09687216461676584, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.045915949260514344, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09092637865199504, "ret_p6m": -0.14760414631636987, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14760414631636987, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.23167639643130056, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.09312144798931499, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08407225011493069, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05448269832705488, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08415579037630527, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08766148962641984, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0863679196883711, "price_path": [-0.0641, -0.0331, -0.0825, -0.0955, -0.0462, -0.0886, -0.0768, -0.0834, -0.1298, -0.0827, -0.0967, -0.0843, -0.0977, -0.0755, -0.0584, -0.0686, -0.0762, -0.0552, -0.0873, -0.0479, -0.0308, -0.0288, -0.0738, -0.0392, -0.0144, -0.0651, -0.0276, -0.0616, -0.0961, -0.063, -0.0749, -0.0938, -0.154, -0.1491, -0.1395, -0.1556, -0.1498, -0.1683, -0.177, -0.1208, -0.1174, -0.1023, -0.1023, -0.0947, -0.0948, -0.0967, -0.0599, -0.0435, -0.0425, -0.0749, -0.0632, -0.05, -0.0596, -0.0342, 0.0003, 0.0309, -0.0167, 0.0172, 0.0126, 0.0285, 0.0218, 0.0215, 0.0215, 0.0, -0.0327, -0.0437, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0781, -0.0495, -0.0889, -0.0921, -0.0829, -0.0635, -0.0552, -0.0589, -0.0757, -0.0771, -0.0793, -0.0793, -0.1177, -0.0921, -0.0544, -0.055, -0.0842, -0.0932, -0.092, -0.1234, -0.0942, -0.1123, -0.112, -0.1456, -0.1641, -0.1349, -0.1218, -0.1052, -0.0987, -0.1223, -0.1215, -0.1215, -0.1359, -0.1344, -0.1336, -0.1334, -0.1586, -0.1385, -0.1216, -0.1402, -0.1529, -0.1512, -0.1742, -0.1457, -0.1466, -0.1651, -0.161, -0.1598, -0.1418, -0.1687, -0.1768, -0.1676, -0.1598, -0.1734, -0.1997, -0.2257, -0.1985, -0.1939, -0.1878, -0.2169, -0.2386, -0.2523, -0.2177, -0.1977, -0.2412, -0.2412, -0.2575, -0.2705, -0.2777, -0.2727, -0.2657, -0.2584, -0.2336, -0.1752, -0.1816, -0.1569, -0.174, -0.1868, -0.1845, -0.2135, -0.2081, -0.2031, -0.2087, -0.2155, -0.1969, -0.1776, -0.174, -0.1806, -0.1609, -0.1334, -0.0986, -0.0635, -0.0878, -0.063, -0.0671, -0.1114, -0.1372, -0.1496, -0.1219, -0.1207, -0.1035, -0.1035, -0.0875, -0.0733, -0.0696, -0.0829, -0.1248, -0.1083, -0.1084, -0.1194, -0.1772, -0.1394, -0.1652, -0.197, -0.16, -0.1447, -0.1348, -0.1484, -0.1658, -0.1572, -0.1572, -0.1476]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1977042082364588448", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-10-11T16:02:18+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold will go MUCH HIGHER", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish gold: fiat debasement continues unabated; gold rising despite overbought conditions, peace news, and risk-off — will go much higher.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "VARIANT PERCEPTION ON GOLD.\nConsider the following;\n\n1) Peace in the Middle East this week\n2) Yesterday was a big risk off day\n3) Gold is “overbought” \n4) Many are yelling “SELL”. Even a number of gold bulls are calling \nfor a “healthy correction”\n\nDespite all of the above, gold was up yesterday.  $GLD #GOLD\n\nBut in the background the inexorable trend of fiat money debasement continues unabated. Don’t lose sight of the plot. Gold will go MUCH HIGHER. THIS:\n@LukeGromen @TaviCosta @DonDurrett @htsfhickey @LynAldenContact", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Imagine taking profits on your gold and silver just prior to a monetary collapse", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.023724513495688604, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.023724513495688604, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.008612279267799283, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008612279267799283, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.01511223422788932, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01511223422788932, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.007141189222626965, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007141189222626965, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.008362835510268285, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.008362835510268285, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012216462876413203, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0012216462876413203, "ret_p1w": 0.06628050940601504, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06628050940601504, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05382272451563175, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05382272451563175, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.012457784890383294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012457784890383294, "ret_p1m": 0.004707870603659403, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004707870603659403, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.025395936845134415, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.025395936845134415, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.030103807448793818, "bench_c_p1m": 0.030103807448793818, "ret_p3m": 0.08833874003541609, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.08833874003541609, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.04534369623268608, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.04534369623268608, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.042995043802730004, "bench_c_p3m": 0.042995043802730004, "ret_p6m": 0.14208257753716058, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.14208257753716058, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.14218281898911722, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.14218281898911722, "bench_spy_p6m": -0.0001002414519566397, "bench_c_p6m": -0.0001002414519566397, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004707870603659403, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.025395936845134415, "alpha_c_stated": -0.025395936845134415, "price_path": [-0.1847, -0.1865, -0.1843, -0.1718, -0.164, -0.1743, -0.1794, -0.187, -0.1922, -0.19, -0.204, -0.1987, -0.1824, -0.1777, -0.177, -0.1788, -0.1718, -0.172, -0.1839, -0.1847, -0.1822, -0.1874, -0.1869, -0.1882, -0.1926, -0.1844, -0.1873, -0.1786, -0.1805, -0.1746, -0.1729, -0.1668, -0.1587, -0.1587, -0.1389, -0.1321, -0.1359, -0.1244, -0.1144, -0.1165, -0.1133, -0.1146, -0.1129, -0.1036, -0.1018, -0.1088, -0.1123, -0.1029, -0.0874, -0.0837, -0.092, -0.0882, -0.0829, -0.0678, -0.0598, -0.0583, -0.0616, -0.0541, -0.0363, -0.0313, -0.0153, -0.0335, -0.0237, 0.0, 0.0071, 0.0246, 0.0486, 0.0288, 0.0663, -0.0022, -0.0021, 0.0019, -0.0015, -0.0293, -0.0363, -0.0399, -0.0211, -0.0264, -0.0246, -0.0417, -0.0306, -0.0318, -0.0259, 0.0008, 0.0047, 0.0209, 0.0126, -0.0056, -0.017, -0.0099, -0.0083, -0.0086, -0.0101, 0.0056, 0.0053, 0.0133, 0.0133, 0.0259, 0.0308, 0.0242, 0.0232, 0.0239, 0.0221, 0.0194, 0.0246, 0.029, 0.0401, 0.0459, 0.0468, 0.0471, 0.0561, 0.0542, 0.0554, 0.0797, 0.094, 0.0895, 0.0895, 0.1022, 0.0542, 0.055, 0.0482, 0.0482, 0.0534, 0.0811, 0.0928, 0.0824, 0.0883, 0.0962, 0.1167, 0.1152, 0.1266, 0.1197, 0.1143, 0.1143, 0.1564, 0.1733, 0.1949, 0.2114, 0.2291, 0.2592, 0.308, 0.3116, 0.1768, 0.1297, 0.2015, 0.2007, 0.1687, 0.2046, 0.2352, 0.223, 0.2368, 0.1939, 0.2236, 0.2236, 0.1854, 0.2121, 0.2155, 0.2394, 0.2729, 0.2553, 0.2521, 0.2629, 0.2795, 0.296, 0.2382, 0.2479, 0.2329, 0.2524, 0.2498, 0.2639, 0.2596, 0.2348, 0.2189, 0.2178, 0.2147, 0.1763, 0.1278, 0.0933, 0.0686, 0.0689, 0.101, 0.0596, 0.0968, 0.0965, 0.1381, 0.158, 0.1357, 0.1357, 0.1311, 0.1421]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1969038558687093242", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-19T13:59:10+00:00", "symbol": "GC=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold will go MUCH higher IMHO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish gold; expects much higher prices from current levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Amazing disconnect. Gold will go MUCH higher IMHO. https://t.co/NdxHT3cbFR", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.010495894909688053, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.010495894909688053, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.005567436465136355, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.005567436465136355, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004928458444551698, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004928458444551698, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01730643093326134, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01730643093326134, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012575381580153921, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.012575381580153921, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004731049353107419, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004731049353107419, "ret_p1w": 0.022289043345254944, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.022289043345254944, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.025121757175046056, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.025121757175046056, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0028327138297911114, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0028327138297911114, "ret_p1m": 0.18860192995478786, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.18860192995478786, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.17715099724087469, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17715099724087469, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011450932713913176, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011450932713913176, "ret_p3m": 0.17722158490226514, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17722158490226514, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1656199759208099, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1656199759208099, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.011601608981455236, "bench_c_p3m": 0.011601608981455236, "ret_p6m": 0.3574798119531233, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3574798119531233, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3464704302460011, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3464704302460011, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.011009381707122179, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011009381707122179, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.18860192995478786, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.17715099724087469, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17715099724087469, "price_path": [-0.0973, -0.0945, -0.0955, -0.1119, -0.1013, -0.0933, -0.0882, -0.0945, -0.0945, -0.0938, -0.1032, -0.0992, -0.0972, -0.0886, -0.0919, -0.0957, -0.0912, -0.0931, -0.0908, -0.0768, -0.068, -0.0796, -0.0852, -0.0937, -0.0996, -0.0971, -0.1127, -0.1068, -0.0887, -0.0833, -0.0826, -0.0846, -0.0768, -0.077, -0.0903, -0.0911, -0.0884, -0.0941, -0.0936, -0.095, -0.1, -0.0909, -0.094, -0.0843, -0.0865, -0.0799, -0.078, -0.0712, -0.0622, -0.0622, -0.0401, -0.0325, -0.0368, -0.024, -0.0129, -0.0151, -0.0116, -0.013, -0.0111, -0.0008, 0.0012, -0.0065, -0.0105, 0.0, 0.0173, 0.0215, 0.0122, 0.0164, 0.0223, 0.0392, 0.048, 0.0497, 0.046, 0.0544, 0.0743, 0.0798, 0.0976, 0.0774, 0.0883, 0.1147, 0.1227, 0.1421, 0.1688, 0.1469, 0.1886, 0.1122, 0.1123, 0.1168, 0.113, 0.0821, 0.0743, 0.0702, 0.0912, 0.0853, 0.0873, 0.0682, 0.0806, 0.0793, 0.0859, 0.1156, 0.12, 0.138, 0.1288, 0.1084, 0.0957, 0.1037, 0.1055, 0.1052, 0.1035, 0.1209, 0.1206, 0.1295, 0.1295, 0.1436, 0.1491, 0.1417, 0.1406, 0.1414, 0.1393, 0.1363, 0.1422, 0.147, 0.1594, 0.1659, 0.1669, 0.1672, 0.1772, 0.1751, 0.1764, 0.2036, 0.2195, 0.2145, 0.2145, 0.2287, 0.1752, 0.176, 0.1684, 0.1684, 0.1742, 0.2051, 0.2182, 0.2065, 0.2132, 0.222, 0.2449, 0.2431, 0.2558, 0.2481, 0.2421, 0.2421, 0.2891, 0.3079, 0.332, 0.3503, 0.3701, 0.4037, 0.4581, 0.4621, 0.3118, 0.2593, 0.3394, 0.3384, 0.3028, 0.3428, 0.3769, 0.3633, 0.3787, 0.3308, 0.3639, 0.3639, 0.3214, 0.3511, 0.3549, 0.3816, 0.419, 0.3993, 0.3958, 0.4077, 0.4262, 0.4447, 0.3802, 0.391, 0.3743, 0.396, 0.3932, 0.4089, 0.4041, 0.3765, 0.3587, 0.3575]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2000749938716594394", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-16T02:08:52+00:00", "symbol": "CRWV", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$CRWV short, will go below IPO price", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short CRWV below IPO price, CIFR to $7, and IREN to $15.", "resolved_tickers": ["CRWV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$CRWV short, will go below IPO price https://t.co/y6QkVyD8jl\n\n---\n\n$CIFR short to $7 https://t.co/pQyBq9nf0V\n\n---\n\n$IREN short to 15 https://t.co/bwaqRcu0OU", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04100717228951223, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04100717228951223, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03826731065687605, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03826731065687605, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07122297767254948, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07122297767254948, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.06021938368914925, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.06021938368914925, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "bench_c_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "ret_p1w": 0.15482017462202102, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.15482017462202102, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.13843584919782015, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.13843584919782015, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "bench_c_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "ret_p1m": 0.2920863748454361, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.2920863748454361, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.27215638345917514, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.27215638345917514, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "bench_c_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "ret_p3m": 0.16705036849426702, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.16705036849426702, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.18859060876156675, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.18859060876156675, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "bench_c_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "ret_p6m": 0.3756834620194469, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.3756834620194469, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.3010144364706724, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.3010144364706724, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "bench_c_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.2920863748454361, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.27215638345917514, "alpha_c_stated": -0.27215638345917514, "price_path": [0.7466, 0.7965, 0.917, 0.8833, 0.9194, 0.8224, 0.7315, 0.7629, 0.9691, 0.9719, 0.9856, 0.9394, 0.9259, 0.8537, 1.0141, 1.0587, 0.9918, 1.0377, 0.9289, 1.0035, 1.0394, 0.9694, 0.8282, 0.7994, 0.7486, 0.7747, 0.9072, 0.9577, 0.9396, 1.0134, 0.8858, 0.9239, 0.8176, 0.6655, 0.6463, 0.5386, 0.4965, 0.5196, 0.2718, 0.2292, 0.1272, 0.1131, 0.0839, 0.0777, 0.078, -0.0042, 0.0309, 0.059, 0.0258, 0.0689, 0.0689, 0.0521, 0.1088, 0.094, 0.1419, 0.2338, 0.2705, 0.2409, 0.3045, 0.2685, 0.2573, 0.1308, 0.041, 0.0, -0.0712, -0.0262, 0.1942, 0.2206, 0.1548, 0.1348, 0.1348, 0.0996, 0.078, 0.0633, 0.0304, 0.0304, 0.1413, 0.1059, 0.1214, 0.1105, 0.1092, 0.1531, 0.294, 0.2587, 0.2921, 0.3671, 0.4565, 0.4565, 0.3701, 0.3532, 0.3207, 0.3378, 0.4145, 0.5663, 0.5255, 0.4321, 0.3409, 0.2797, 0.2958, 0.1865, 0.0741, 0.2942, 0.3927, 0.3685, 0.3691, 0.377, 0.3819, 0.3819, 0.3094, 0.3734, 0.3977, 0.2842, 0.3071, 0.4288, 0.4102, 0.4047, 0.1447, 0.123, 0.0616, 0.1439, 0.0765, 0.0502, 0.0706, 0.078, 0.1793, 0.1491, 0.1671, 0.2354, 0.1816, 0.1917, 0.1606, 0.1722, 0.1793, 0.1945, 0.2601, 0.1576, 0.0764, -0.005, 0.1147, 0.1286, 0.1833, 0.1833, 0.1646, 0.2265, 0.2791, 0.3237, 0.4676, 0.5866, 0.6863, 0.7078, 0.7203, 0.6813, 0.6896, 0.657, 0.7632, 0.6895, 0.5847, 0.6124, 0.5184, 0.643, 0.6058, 0.7124, 0.8047, 0.8401, 0.9853, 0.8538, 0.6424, 0.6504, 0.5504, 0.6016, 0.6434, 0.5439, 0.4931, 0.4361, 0.4573, 0.5479, 0.5178, 0.5178, 0.5236, 0.5003, 0.5376, 0.576, 0.796, 0.7161, 0.5961, 0.5544, 0.4445, 0.4729, 0.4165, 0.3757]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2000749938716594394", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-12-16T02:08:52+00:00", "symbol": "CIFR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$CIFR short to $7", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short CRWV below IPO price, CIFR to $7, and IREN to $15.", "resolved_tickers": ["CIFR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Information Technology Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Information Technology Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$CRWV short, will go below IPO price https://t.co/y6QkVyD8jl\n\n---\n\n$CIFR short to $7 https://t.co/pQyBq9nf0V\n\n---\n\n$IREN short to 15 https://t.co/bwaqRcu0OU", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01667778544477938, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01667778544477938, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.019417647077415556, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.014854012306168118, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018237731386112621, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04002664689504887, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04002664689504887, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02902305291164864, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.017790304722884787, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "bench_c_p1d": -0.02223634217216408, "ret_p1w": 0.061374255526444044, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.061374255526444044, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.04498993010224317, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.036041947769992255, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "bench_c_p1w": 0.02533230775645179, "ret_p1m": 0.20947294446917875, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.20947294446917875, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1895429530829178, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.19292219249050535, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016550751978673395, "ret_p3m": -0.06070712883968432, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.06070712883968432, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.039166888572384595, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.021758633130150362, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "bench_c_p3m": -0.03894849570953396, "ret_p6m": 0.4022682307349832, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.4022682307349832, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.32759920518620866, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.15985899332188702, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "bench_c_p6m": 0.24240923741309617, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.20947294446917875, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1895429530829178, "alpha_c_stated": -0.19292219249050535, "price_path": [-0.2095, -0.1808, -0.0687, -0.056, -0.0567, -0.2221, -0.2348, -0.1561, -0.1601, -0.1594, -0.0787, -0.0193, 0.0233, 0.0507, 0.1741, 0.2001, 0.1321, 0.3569, 0.3936, 0.4029, 0.2488, 0.2515, 0.3282, 0.2058, 0.0747, 0.1511, 0.3783, 0.3702, 0.3316, 0.3069, 0.2722, 0.2442, 0.5183, 0.5017, 0.6484, 0.4483, 0.3803, 0.3109, 0.2455, 0.1594, -0.004, -0.042, -0.0427, -0.0274, -0.0247, -0.0287, -0.056, 0.1147, 0.1688, 0.2775, 0.2775, 0.3576, 0.3135, 0.1768, 0.2428, 0.3229, 0.2862, 0.2995, 0.3049, 0.2328, 0.2595, 0.1374, -0.0167, 0.0, -0.04, 0.0107, 0.0814, 0.0901, 0.0614, 0.0821, 0.0821, 0.0133, 0.006, -0.0267, -0.0153, -0.0153, 0.0807, 0.2115, 0.1701, 0.0727, 0.1041, 0.1094, 0.1795, 0.2175, 0.2095, 0.1688, 0.2542, 0.2542, 0.1955, 0.1821, 0.1601, 0.1721, 0.1001, 0.2508, 0.2655, 0.1808, 0.0647, 0.0547, 0.0847, -0.0494, -0.1528, -0.0173, 0.1181, 0.1408, 0.0861, 0.074, 0.0954, 0.0954, 0.0434, 0.0287, 0.054, -0.0227, 0.0153, 0.1421, 0.1081, 0.0994, 0.0407, 0.0514, -0.0187, 0.07, 0.0107, -0.0914, -0.0454, -0.0687, -0.0587, -0.0854, -0.0607, 0.01, 0.0067, -0.0213, -0.0233, -0.0654, -0.0067, -0.0073, 0.0594, -0.0427, -0.0831, -0.1985, -0.1414, -0.1568, -0.1448, -0.1448, -0.1094, -0.0654, 0.0287, 0.0914, 0.1027, 0.1848, 0.2308, 0.2008, 0.1568, 0.2922, 0.2869, 0.2035, 0.2969, 0.2468, 0.2141, 0.2115, 0.1514, 0.1288, 0.1835, 0.1368, 0.1935, 0.4743, 0.4616, 0.3799, 0.3709, 0.3529, 0.3382, 0.4169, 0.487, 0.3562, 0.2755, 0.2542, 0.2995, 0.4356, 0.4656, 0.4656, 0.5357, 0.6785, 0.6404, 0.5777, 0.6017, 0.7538, 0.7505, 0.7045, 0.4977, 0.6204, 0.5367, 0.4023]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2000749938716594394", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2025-12-16T02:08:52+00:00", "symbol": "IREN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$IREN short to 15", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short CRWV below IPO price, CIFR to $7, and IREN to $15.", "resolved_tickers": ["IREN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$CRWV short, will go below IPO price https://t.co/y6QkVyD8jl\n\n---\n\n$CIFR short to $7 https://t.co/pQyBq9nf0V\n\n---\n\n$IREN short to 15 https://t.co/bwaqRcu0OU", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03033617397438182, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03033617397438182, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.033076035607017995, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0367417569212255, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0027398616326361758, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00640558294684368, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07679697626599413, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07679697626599413, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0657933822825939, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07661395153426498, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.011003593983400228, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00018302473172915334, "ret_p1w": 0.14976768295664367, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.14976768295664367, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1333833575324428, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.1317637732939767, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016384325424200874, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01800390966266696, "ret_p1m": 0.44520363070769786, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.44520363070769786, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.4252736393214369, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.4507075871865366, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.019929991386260948, "bench_c_p1m": -0.005503956478838723, "ret_p3m": 0.13637610433608782, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13637610433608782, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.15791634460338755, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.23848305819470494, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.021540240267299726, "bench_c_p3m": -0.10210695385861712, "ret_p6m": 0.4080349888744079, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.4080349888744079, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.3333659633256334, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.44387017135819207, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07466902554877453, "bench_c_p6m": -0.035835182483784145, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.44520363070769786, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.4252736393214369, "alpha_c_stated": -0.4507075871865366, "price_path": [-0.0074, 0.056, 0.1451, 0.1416, 0.2883, 0.2651, 0.144, 0.2553, 0.2826, 0.2867, 0.2851, 0.3791, 0.5783, 0.6857, 0.6423, 0.745, 0.6335, 0.7529, 0.9011, 0.8579, 0.6898, 0.6595, 0.6185, 0.5085, 0.4165, 0.5266, 0.719, 0.7762, 0.7059, 0.6513, 0.5911, 0.6603, 0.8516, 0.821, 1.0883, 0.83, 0.7048, 0.6444, 0.5682, 0.5223, 0.3296, 0.2673, 0.2957, 0.3351, 0.2525, 0.188, 0.155, 0.3252, 0.2973, 0.3241, 0.3241, 0.3066, 0.3252, 0.1238, 0.2014, 0.2695, 0.2219, 0.2665, 0.2801, 0.2003, 0.2009, 0.0967, -0.0303, 0.0, -0.0768, -0.0216, 0.091, 0.1489, 0.1498, 0.1473, 0.1473, 0.1014, 0.0771, 0.0467, 0.0322, 0.0322, 0.167, 0.3184, 0.2547, 0.1923, 0.2484, 0.258, 0.3755, 0.4482, 0.4452, 0.4181, 0.5802, 0.5802, 0.4829, 0.4616, 0.4283, 0.5491, 0.431, 0.6395, 0.7201, 0.6354, 0.4687, 0.4507, 0.4865, 0.2282, 0.0875, 0.1432, 0.2613, 0.1733, 0.1662, 0.094, 0.1539, 0.1539, 0.1197, 0.15, 0.1831, 0.0926, 0.1577, 0.2421, 0.2033, 0.2091, 0.1192, 0.1312, 0.0618, 0.1981, 0.0966, 0.003, 0.0615, 0.0418, 0.1473, 0.1306, 0.1364, 0.2282, 0.1741, 0.1536, 0.1386, 0.1285, 0.1522, 0.1238, 0.1323, 0.0235, -0.041, -0.1358, -0.0631, -0.0683, -0.0497, -0.0497, -0.0399, -0.0232, 0.0066, 0.0128, 0.0746, 0.1771, 0.2946, 0.3342, 0.3036, 0.3151, 0.3315, 0.2345, 0.3225, 0.4217, 0.384, 0.3217, 0.2145, 0.1714, 0.2438, 0.2479, 0.3523, 0.496, 0.6666, 0.5537, 0.6726, 0.5072, 0.5458, 0.5078, 0.5961, 0.4468, 0.3791, 0.3047, 0.4406, 0.5868, 0.5532, 0.5532, 0.6338, 0.8541, 0.7505, 0.7365, 0.7855, 0.8202, 0.7896, 0.6906, 0.4854, 0.6177, 0.4764, 0.408]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1968138223076413643", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-17T02:21:33+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect the stock to do very badly in the coming years", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Short TSLA on deteriorating fundamentals, loss of tax incentives, and extreme valuation; short OPEN on no path to profitability, poor unit economics, and 22x EV/sales for house flipping.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Thank you for that question. That is the best question that anyone has EVER asked me about $TSLA . I had to think hard about a good answer. \n\n$TSLA has consistently undershot expectations in terms of fundamental performance. \nI have been correct on the fundamentals, but wrong on the stock. Investors have been chasing narrative over cash flow. The $TSLA story has captured the imagination of investors. Normally stock prices follow earnings. Not in this case. Never did I imagine that a company generating $97b in revenues and $5.5 of profits (both 2025 consensus estimates) would be valued at $1.3 T!\nGoing forward I believe that things will get much worse for $TSLA as tax incentives go away and competition intensifies. Despite eternal promises from Musk, the non-automotive businesses are still incidental to the overall company. Also color me very skeptical on FSD. Tesla remains a car company IMHO.\nTesla is valued on 13x sales and 240x earnings. This compares with perhaps 1x sales and 9x earnings for the typical auto company. On a comparable basis $TSLA would only be worth $25 per share. I expect the stock to do very badly in the coming years. I would note that $TSLA is the same price as it was four years ago, having materially underperformed the market since late 2021.\n\nAs regards $OPEN , yes narrative and speculation may continue to drive the stock up, just as was the case for $AMC (but we all know how that ended). The share price may well continue to rise in the short run. I have no idea. That is also why I am not short. \n\nFundamentally $OPEN remains extremely challenged. In 14 years they have NEVER made money. Theirs is a low margin business in a fiercely competitive industry. 22x EV/sales for house flipping . No thanks. I struggle to see how they can generate profits to even remotely justify the current $9 share price - forget about $82. Hand waving, eliminating 1200 employees reflexively chanting 5x revenues, citing AI and mobilizing  “the army” is not going to sufficiently move the needle. Sorry general Eric. \n\nI am waiting for someone to make a back of the envelope case for the unit economics of their business going forward. Until then, I just don’t see it. \nI am reminded that book value per share is $.90 . Other valuation analysis  yield a similar number.\n\nThis is not about being a growth investor or a value investor or a technology investor. Peter Lynch would always tell us that In the long run and on average, stock prices follow earnings. While in the short term, earnings and stock prices may diverge, over the long term I still believe this is the case. \nI could have written a lot more, but this is enough for now. Again thanks for such a great question. I may well do a space on this topic. \n@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @Realtor_Stocks @1TradingDee @dayetweets @DavidDTawil @rusty__tillery @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @mcgill_s @OHare888 @APompliano @DougKass", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @MichaelMOTTCM @MichaelKantro @davevermilion @APompliano @cvpayne @UnicusResearch @Realtor_Stocks @m3_melody @dayetweets george, what do you think you got wrong for years when analyzing tesla, and how do you know that won't be the case with Opendoor?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "stackasaurus11", "ret_m1d": -0.009956301085378372, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.009956301085378372, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.011200116413534578, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.012481465038979622, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012438153281562059, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0025251639536012505, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.021157139806429193, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.021157139806429193, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.025829545286855993, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.016645022119491815, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0046724054804268, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004512117686937378, "ret_p1w": 0.03975490484127797, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03975490484127797, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03406177690692336, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.046160402160570935, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005693127934354614, "bench_c_p1w": -0.006405497319292963, "ret_p1m": 0.006786302418274159, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.006786302418274159, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0017928791175669812, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04296656942274124, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.004993423300707178, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03618026700446708, "ret_p3m": 0.116118005701354, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.116118005701354, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0805628246197796, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1065165390705467, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.035555181081574405, "bench_c_p3m": 0.009601466630807298, "ret_p6m": -0.07244159265273475, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.07244159265273475, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.0886741035475872, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.0008034394059431849, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.016232510894852448, "bench_c_p6m": -0.07324503205867794, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2435, -0.1812, -0.2005, -0.2309, -0.235, -0.2401, -0.2541, -0.2939, -0.2588, -0.2595, -0.2595, -0.3098, -0.3007, -0.3052, -0.2724, -0.2638, -0.2559, -0.2702, -0.2447, -0.25, -0.2259, -0.2286, -0.2201, -0.2191, -0.2831, -0.2578, -0.2355, -0.2458, -0.2508, -0.2761, -0.2894, -0.2738, -0.2751, -0.2488, -0.2432, -0.2259, -0.2039, -0.1996, -0.2031, -0.212, -0.2238, -0.213, -0.2267, -0.2394, -0.2483, -0.2016, -0.1861, -0.1742, -0.1791, -0.1876, -0.216, -0.216, -0.2266, -0.2155, -0.2051, -0.1762, -0.1866, -0.1852, -0.1833, -0.134, -0.0703, -0.0371, -0.01, 0.0, -0.0212, 0.0005, 0.0196, -0.0, 0.0398, -0.0058, 0.0341, 0.0407, 0.0443, 0.0789, 0.0238, 0.0093, 0.0643, 0.017, 0.0301, 0.0227, -0.029, 0.0236, 0.0079, 0.0218, 0.0068, 0.0316, 0.0507, 0.0393, 0.0308, 0.0543, 0.0185, 0.0624, 0.0815, 0.0837, 0.0334, 0.0721, 0.0998, 0.0432, 0.085, 0.0471, 0.0086, 0.0455, 0.0323, 0.0111, -0.0561, -0.0505, -0.0398, -0.0578, -0.0514, -0.0719, -0.0816, -0.019, -0.0152, 0.0017, 0.0017, 0.0101, 0.0101, 0.0079, 0.049, 0.0673, 0.0684, 0.0322, 0.0453, 0.0601, 0.0494, 0.0777, 0.1161, 0.1503, 0.0972, 0.135, 0.1299, 0.1476, 0.1402, 0.1398, 0.1398, 0.1158, 0.0793, 0.0671, 0.056, 0.056, 0.0287, 0.0606, 0.0167, 0.013, 0.0233, 0.045, 0.0542, 0.0501, 0.0313, 0.0298, 0.0273, 0.0273, -0.0155, 0.0131, 0.0552, 0.0545, 0.0219, 0.0118, 0.0131, -0.0218, 0.0107, -0.0095, -0.0092, -0.0466, -0.0673, -0.0346, -0.0201, -0.0015, 0.0057, -0.0206, -0.0198, -0.0198, -0.0358, -0.0341, -0.0332, -0.033, -0.0611, -0.0387, -0.0199, -0.0406, -0.0548, -0.0529, -0.0785, -0.0468, -0.0477, -0.0684, -0.0638, -0.0625, -0.0424, -0.0724]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1968138223076413643", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-09-17T02:21:33+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I struggle to see how they can generate profits to even remotely justify the current $9 share price - forget about $82", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Short TSLA on deteriorating fundamentals, loss of tax incentives, and extreme valuation; short OPEN on no path to profitability, poor unit economics, and 22x EV/sales for house flipping.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Thank you for that question. That is the best question that anyone has EVER asked me about $TSLA . I had to think hard about a good answer. \n\n$TSLA has consistently undershot expectations in terms of fundamental performance. \nI have been correct on the fundamentals, but wrong on the stock. Investors have been chasing narrative over cash flow. The $TSLA story has captured the imagination of investors. Normally stock prices follow earnings. Not in this case. Never did I imagine that a company generating $97b in revenues and $5.5 of profits (both 2025 consensus estimates) would be valued at $1.3 T!\nGoing forward I believe that things will get much worse for $TSLA as tax incentives go away and competition intensifies. Despite eternal promises from Musk, the non-automotive businesses are still incidental to the overall company. Also color me very skeptical on FSD. Tesla remains a car company IMHO.\nTesla is valued on 13x sales and 240x earnings. This compares with perhaps 1x sales and 9x earnings for the typical auto company. On a comparable basis $TSLA would only be worth $25 per share. I expect the stock to do very badly in the coming years. I would note that $TSLA is the same price as it was four years ago, having materially underperformed the market since late 2021.\n\nAs regards $OPEN , yes narrative and speculation may continue to drive the stock up, just as was the case for $AMC (but we all know how that ended). The share price may well continue to rise in the short run. I have no idea. That is also why I am not short. \n\nFundamentally $OPEN remains extremely challenged. In 14 years they have NEVER made money. Theirs is a low margin business in a fiercely competitive industry. 22x EV/sales for house flipping . No thanks. I struggle to see how they can generate profits to even remotely justify the current $9 share price - forget about $82. Hand waving, eliminating 1200 employees reflexively chanting 5x revenues, citing AI and mobilizing  “the army” is not going to sufficiently move the needle. Sorry general Eric. \n\nI am waiting for someone to make a back of the envelope case for the unit economics of their business going forward. Until then, I just don’t see it. \nI am reminded that book value per share is $.90 . Other valuation analysis  yield a similar number.\n\nThis is not about being a growth investor or a value investor or a technology investor. Peter Lynch would always tell us that In the long run and on average, stock prices follow earnings. While in the short term, earnings and stock prices may diverge, over the long term I still believe this is the case. \nI could have written a lot more, but this is enough for now. Again thanks for such a great question. I may well do a space on this topic. \n@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @Realtor_Stocks @1TradingDee @dayetweets @DavidDTawil @rusty__tillery @m3_melody @UnicusResearch @mcgill_s @OHare888 @APompliano @DougKass", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @MichaelMOTTCM @MichaelKantro @davevermilion @APompliano @cvpayne @UnicusResearch @Realtor_Stocks @m3_melody @dayetweets george, what do you think you got wrong for years when analyzing tesla, and how do you know that won't be the case with Opendoor?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "stackasaurus11", "ret_m1d": -0.1263467146947388, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.1263467146947388, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.127590530022895, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.12682255196365078, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012438153281562059, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00047583726891198275, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.026444706832016274, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.026444706832016274, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.031117112312443074, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02715855662592659, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0046724054804268, "bench_c_p1d": 0.000713849793910315, "ret_p1w": -0.19392756988373117, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.19392756988373117, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.19962069781808578, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.19053201841763034, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005693127934354614, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0033955514661008213, "ret_p1m": -0.303623887664078, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.303623887664078, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.3086173109647852, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.30502304452700724, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.004993423300707178, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0013991568629292406, "ret_p3m": -0.36630756454278135, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.36630756454278135, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.40186274562435575, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3470890155272237, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.035555181081574405, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01921854901555764, "ret_p6m": -0.5259549329574431, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.5259549329574431, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.5421874438522956, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.5472657388199687, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.016232510894852448, "bench_c_p6m": 0.02131080586252554, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.9476, -0.9481, -0.9461, -0.9499, -0.9473, -0.9453, -0.9478, -0.9447, -0.9446, -0.9403, -0.9403, -0.9387, -0.9283, -0.9278, -0.9135, -0.9237, -0.9118, -0.8981, -0.8541, -0.8384, -0.7796, -0.6856, -0.7179, -0.7757, -0.763, -0.7512, -0.7708, -0.7992, -0.7973, -0.8198, -0.7943, -0.7591, -0.7532, -0.8139, -0.8188, -0.809, -0.7738, -0.7581, -0.763, -0.7023, -0.6895, -0.6298, -0.6454, -0.6846, -0.6474, -0.5093, -0.5553, -0.5397, -0.6063, -0.5818, -0.5642, -0.5642, -0.5015, -0.4976, -0.4163, -0.3487, -0.4084, -0.4016, -0.4261, 0.0304, -0.1117, -0.07, -0.1263, 0.0, -0.0264, -0.0627, -0.1792, -0.3056, -0.1939, -0.1097, -0.1371, -0.1969, -0.2194, -0.2106, -0.2155, -0.2057, -0.0911, -0.0901, -0.1685, -0.2027, -0.2586, -0.288, -0.2517, -0.2772, -0.3036, -0.2987, -0.2782, -0.3183, -0.332, -0.3115, -0.2194, -0.2008, -0.2194, -0.2507, -0.2811, -0.239, -0.2566, -0.3222, -0.2919, -0.3575, -0.3575, -0.2194, -0.1694, -0.0823, -0.1616, -0.2047, -0.2321, -0.2635, -0.3448, -0.3967, -0.3389, -0.2468, -0.2419, -0.238, -0.238, -0.2458, -0.3007, -0.3154, -0.3203, -0.2576, -0.2997, -0.3095, -0.2742, -0.3144, -0.3095, -0.3575, -0.3663, -0.3408, -0.4006, -0.3849, -0.3771, -0.3712, -0.3859, -0.3849, -0.3849, -0.4114, -0.429, -0.428, -0.429, -0.429, -0.4055, -0.381, -0.3213, -0.4006, -0.3702, -0.286, -0.3124, -0.3369, -0.3497, -0.383, -0.3467, -0.3467, -0.3741, -0.3653, -0.3712, -0.4114, -0.4251, -0.431, -0.4358, -0.4535, -0.4956, -0.5279, -0.4976, -0.5103, -0.5397, -0.522, -0.5162, -0.5406, -0.5338, -0.571, -0.5646, -0.5646, -0.5759, -0.5465, -0.5446, -0.5103, -0.5318, -0.4995, -0.5122, -0.4701, -0.4691, -0.5054, -0.5132, -0.522, -0.4927, -0.5103, -0.5024, -0.5093, -0.4838, -0.526]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2003847635787251770", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-24T15:18:00+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "you can come back to me next year once $TSLA gets cut in half", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Expects TSLA to be cut in half within a year; bearish counter to bull's 4-5x call.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@MickyBigWords @wojtekszkutnik Will do. Any equally you can come back to me next year once $TSLA gets cut in half.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @wojtekszkutnik Yes, today. You started this by saying the stock is overpriced. Stocks are priced for the future. It's what we all expect to happen, not what is happening. \n\nRemember your post and come back to it in a couple of years when TSLA is 4 or 5 times higher than it is today.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "MickyBigWords", "ret_m1d": 0.0003296326001673844, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0003296326001673844, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003834976338493834, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0037556485266737605, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0035053437383264496, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003426015926506376, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.07350637232061918, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07350637232061918, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06125224520942507, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04756631429017033, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012254127111194113, "bench_c_p1w": -0.025940058030448854, "ret_p1m": -0.07424806138874351, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07424806138874351, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07222022359123703, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07449281251739803, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.002027837797506482, "bench_c_p1m": 0.000244751128654519, "ret_p3m": -0.2153893471520416, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2153893471520416, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1672851701847985, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11547271374786772, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04810417696724312, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0999166334041739, "ret_p6m": -0.17492790426408034, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.17492790426408034, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.26231219525809335, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13255384206017795, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08738429099401301, "bench_c_p6m": -0.042374062203902385, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07424806138874351, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07222022359123703, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07449281251739803, "price_path": [-0.0927, -0.0869, -0.0838, -0.0534, -0.1018, -0.1145, -0.0662, -0.1078, -0.0962, -0.1027, -0.1481, -0.102, -0.1157, -0.1035, -0.1167, -0.095, -0.0782, -0.0882, -0.0957, -0.075, -0.1065, -0.0679, -0.0512, -0.0492, -0.0933, -0.0594, -0.0351, -0.0848, -0.0481, -0.0814, -0.1151, -0.0828, -0.0943, -0.1129, -0.1718, -0.167, -0.1576, -0.1734, -0.1677, -0.1858, -0.1943, -0.1393, -0.136, -0.1212, -0.1212, -0.1138, -0.1138, -0.1157, -0.0796, -0.0636, -0.0626, -0.0944, -0.0829, -0.0699, -0.0793, -0.0545, -0.0208, 0.0092, -0.0374, -0.0042, -0.0087, 0.0069, 0.0003, 0.0, 0.0, -0.021, -0.0531, -0.0638, -0.0735, -0.0735, -0.0975, -0.0695, -0.108, -0.1112, -0.1022, -0.0832, -0.0751, -0.0787, -0.0952, -0.0965, -0.0987, -0.0987, -0.1363, -0.1112, -0.0742, -0.0749, -0.1034, -0.1123, -0.1111, -0.1418, -0.1133, -0.131, -0.1307, -0.1636, -0.1817, -0.153, -0.1403, -0.124, -0.1177, -0.1408, -0.14, -0.14, -0.154, -0.1526, -0.1518, -0.1516, -0.1763, -0.1566, -0.1401, -0.1583, -0.1708, -0.1691, -0.1915, -0.1637, -0.1645, -0.1827, -0.1787, -0.1775, -0.1598, -0.1862, -0.1941, -0.1851, -0.1774, -0.1908, -0.2165, -0.2419, -0.2154, -0.2109, -0.2049, -0.2334, -0.2546, -0.2681, -0.2341, -0.2145, -0.2571, -0.2571, -0.2731, -0.2858, -0.2929, -0.288, -0.2811, -0.274, -0.2497, -0.1925, -0.1988, -0.1747, -0.1914, -0.2039, -0.2017, -0.2301, -0.2248, -0.2199, -0.2253, -0.232, -0.2138, -0.1948, -0.1914, -0.1978, -0.1786, -0.1516, -0.1175, -0.0832, -0.107, -0.0827, -0.0867, -0.1301, -0.1554, -0.1675, -0.1404, -0.1392, -0.1224, -0.1224, -0.1067, -0.0928, -0.0892, -0.1022, -0.1432, -0.127, -0.1271, -0.1379, -0.1945, -0.1575, -0.1828, -0.2139, -0.1777, -0.1627, -0.153, -0.1663, -0.1834, -0.1749]}
{"unit_id": "quote:1986485764146819489", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-06T17:28:07+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is a short. Stock will collapse.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Explicitly short TSLA; expects the stock to collapse.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA is a short. \nStock will collapse.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@ironman20054 @pradracos @Tesla_Optimus @elonmusk That won't work when: (a) FCF is negtv, (b) earnings are negtv, (c) they can't sell 1 Optimus robot/FSD subscription (Musk will delay both to '27E), &amp; (d) qtrly auto sales are falling at a 10-20% y/y clip in 2026E. The bull case is literally: everyone will continue believing", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.036240504876303925, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.036240504876303925, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.025394866010775452, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.012587702925987543, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010845638865528473, "bench_c_m1d": 0.023652801950316382, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03675632866235745, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03675632866235745, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0377408018411326, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03832746762892436, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.000984473178775147, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0015711389665669095, "ret_p1w": -0.09849524134249965, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09849524134249965, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1010760979617803, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08367505243818374, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.002580856619280647, "bench_c_p1w": -0.014820188904315912, "ret_p1m": 0.020385271160632268, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.020385271160632268, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0025592061312080805, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0035268320656520746, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.02294447729184035, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016858439094980193, "ret_p3m": -0.05371041692345502, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05371041692345502, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08542325152314723, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0833062738046435, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03171283459969221, "bench_c_p3m": 0.029595856881188487, "ret_p6m": -0.12354510077247638, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.12354510077247638, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2047662037349851, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13508586382075838, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08122110296250873, "bench_c_p6m": 0.011540763048281999, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.020385271160632268, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0025592061312080805, "alpha_c_stated": -0.0035268320656520746, "price_path": [-0.2397, -0.2356, -0.2389, -0.2474, -0.2587, -0.2484, -0.2615, -0.2736, -0.2821, -0.2375, -0.2227, -0.2113, -0.216, -0.2241, -0.2513, -0.2513, -0.2614, -0.2508, -0.2408, -0.2132, -0.2232, -0.2219, -0.22, -0.1729, -0.1121, -0.0804, -0.0545, -0.045, -0.0652, -0.0445, -0.0262, -0.045, -0.007, -0.0505, -0.0124, -0.0061, -0.0027, 0.0304, -0.0222, -0.0361, 0.0165, -0.0288, -0.0162, -0.0233, -0.0727, -0.0224, -0.0374, -0.0241, -0.0385, -0.0148, 0.0034, -0.0074, -0.0156, 0.0069, -0.0273, 0.0146, 0.0328, 0.035, -0.013, 0.0239, 0.0504, -0.0037, 0.0362, 0.0, -0.0368, -0.0015, -0.0141, -0.0343, -0.0985, -0.0932, -0.083, -0.1002, -0.094, -0.1137, -0.1229, -0.0631, -0.0595, -0.0433, -0.0433, -0.0353, -0.0354, -0.0374, 0.0019, 0.0193, 0.0204, -0.0142, -0.0017, 0.0124, 0.0022, 0.0293, 0.0659, 0.0986, 0.0479, 0.084, 0.0791, 0.096, 0.0889, 0.0886, 0.0886, 0.0657, 0.0308, 0.0191, 0.0085, 0.0085, -0.0176, 0.0129, -0.029, -0.0325, -0.0227, -0.002, 0.0068, 0.0029, -0.015, -0.0165, -0.0189, -0.0189, -0.0598, -0.0325, 0.0077, 0.0071, -0.024, -0.0337, -0.0324, -0.0658, -0.0348, -0.054, -0.0537, -0.0895, -0.1092, -0.078, -0.0641, -0.0464, -0.0396, -0.0647, -0.0638, -0.0638, -0.0791, -0.0776, -0.0767, -0.0765, -0.1033, -0.0819, -0.0639, -0.0837, -0.0973, -0.0955, -0.1199, -0.0896, -0.0905, -0.1103, -0.1059, -0.1047, -0.0854, -0.1141, -0.1227, -0.1129, -0.1046, -0.1191, -0.1471, -0.1748, -0.1459, -0.141, -0.1345, -0.1655, -0.1886, -0.2032, -0.1663, -0.145, -0.1913, -0.1913, -0.2088, -0.2226, -0.2302, -0.2249, -0.2174, -0.2097, -0.1832, -0.121, -0.1279, -0.1016, -0.1198, -0.1334, -0.131, -0.1619, -0.1561, -0.1508, -0.1567, -0.164, -0.1442, -0.1235]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1969502614032171090", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-20T20:43:09+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN IS TOTAL GARBAGE. The company has lost money every single year since its founding. The business model does not work and has atrocious unit economics. $OPEN is valued at 22x EV/revenues, has a lousy balance sheet and is perennially loss making.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: broken business model, atrocious unit economics, 22x EV/rev with no path to profitability; warns investors not to pretend there is a fundamental case.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN IS TOTAL GARBAGE.\nThe company has lost money every single year since its founding. The business model does not work and has atrocious unit economics. \nCost cutting will not move the needle. Go ahead and speculate if you wish, but don’t DARE pretend that there is a fundamental case. $OPEN is valued at 22x EV/revenues, has a lousy balance sheet and is perennially loss making. \nBy way of comparison, Compass ($COMP) is valued at .9x EV/revenues,  has a strong balance sheet and is profitable. Ignore the siren calls of the “ARMY” and DYOR.  I have no position and am just trying to educate investors so that they don’t get bagged in this POS as was the case with $AMC. @Seawolfcap @VD718 @m3_melody @Realtor_Stocks @iv2171 @UnicusResearch @dayetweets @APompliano @wsu311", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.14200472125681984, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.14200472125681984, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.14671349317757754, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.1452923882153393, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004708771920757693, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003287666958519453, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.1539379408396454, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.1539379408396454, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.14849437790242304, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.1618573451141293, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005443562937222368, "bench_c_p1d": 0.007919404274483899, "ret_p1w": -0.02147974972763944, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02147974972763944, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01674098445340888, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.02843919773116721, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.004738765274230561, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006959448003527768, "ret_p1m": -0.16945108077587212, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.16945108077587212, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.17612427891824078, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.18576977347595636, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.006673198142368664, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016318692700084236, "ret_p3m": -0.2505966439085988, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2505966439085988, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2650377514514749, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22203893168345135, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.014441107542876086, "bench_c_p3m": -0.02855771222514747, "ret_p6m": -0.3365155290155407, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.3365155290155407, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.34541128079386973, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3729179279475777, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.00889575177832902, "bench_c_p6m": 0.036402398932037006, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.16945108077587212, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.17612427891824078, "alpha_c_stated": 0.18576977347595636, "price_path": [-0.9389, -0.9358, -0.9334, -0.9364, -0.9326, -0.9325, -0.9272, -0.9272, -0.9253, -0.9126, -0.9121, -0.8946, -0.907, -0.8925, -0.8759, -0.8222, -0.8031, -0.7315, -0.6169, -0.6563, -0.7267, -0.7112, -0.6969, -0.7208, -0.7554, -0.753, -0.7804, -0.7494, -0.7064, -0.6993, -0.7733, -0.7792, -0.7673, -0.7243, -0.7053, -0.7112, -0.6372, -0.6217, -0.5489, -0.568, -0.6158, -0.5704, -0.4021, -0.4582, -0.4391, -0.5203, -0.4905, -0.469, -0.469, -0.3926, -0.3878, -0.2888, -0.2064, -0.2792, -0.2709, -0.3007, 0.2554, 0.0823, 0.1331, 0.0644, 0.2184, 0.1862, 0.142, 0.0, -0.1539, -0.0179, 0.0847, 0.0513, -0.0215, -0.0489, -0.0382, -0.0442, -0.0322, 0.1074, 0.1086, 0.0131, -0.0286, -0.0967, -0.1325, -0.0883, -0.1193, -0.1516, -0.1456, -0.1205, -0.1695, -0.1862, -0.1611, -0.0489, -0.0263, -0.0489, -0.0871, -0.1241, -0.0728, -0.0943, -0.1742, -0.1372, -0.2172, -0.2172, -0.0489, 0.0119, 0.1181, 0.0215, -0.031, -0.0644, -0.1026, -0.2017, -0.2649, -0.1945, -0.0823, -0.0764, -0.0716, -0.0716, -0.0811, -0.148, -0.1659, -0.1718, -0.0955, -0.1468, -0.1587, -0.1158, -0.1647, -0.1587, -0.2172, -0.2279, -0.1969, -0.2697, -0.2506, -0.2411, -0.2339, -0.2518, -0.2506, -0.2506, -0.2828, -0.3043, -0.3031, -0.3043, -0.3043, -0.2757, -0.2458, -0.173, -0.2697, -0.2327, -0.1301, -0.1623, -0.1921, -0.2076, -0.2482, -0.2041, -0.2041, -0.2375, -0.2267, -0.2339, -0.2828, -0.2995, -0.3067, -0.3126, -0.3341, -0.3854, -0.4248, -0.3878, -0.4033, -0.4391, -0.4177, -0.4105, -0.4403, -0.432, -0.4773, -0.4696, -0.4696, -0.4833, -0.4475, -0.4451, -0.4033, -0.4296, -0.3902, -0.4057, -0.3544, -0.3532, -0.3974, -0.4069, -0.4177, -0.3819, -0.4033, -0.3938, -0.4021, -0.3711, -0.4224, -0.4093, -0.3819, -0.3365]}
{"unit_id": "thread:1991268914307699120", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-19T22:14:39+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The valuation of $OPEN already assumes a lot. I am trying to help individual investors understand how overvalued the stock is.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author argues OPEN is overvalued and tries to warn individual investors; bearish stance with fundamentals expected to prevail.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@xultulpeper @nejatian The valuation of $OPEN already assumes a lot. I am trying to help individual investors understand how overvalued the stock is.\n\n---\n\n@xultulpeper @nejatian In the final analysis what I say or think does not matter. Ultimately the fundamentals will prevail. Everyone can make their own decision.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.08603899723000952, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.08603899723000952, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07056084845123456, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.08257115026463024, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015478148778774958, "bench_c_m1d": 0.003467846965379273, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.09577924792250725, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.09577924792250725, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0858181097535422, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08265057515224106, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009961138168965045, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013128672770266192, "ret_p1w": 0.26298707833196167, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.26298707833196167, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.22137985123479886, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.23573905795968253, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0416072270971628, "bench_c_p1w": 0.027248020372279136, "ret_p1m": 0.03246757971695691, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03246757971695691, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.013616217957067356, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.033458448570409915, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04608379767402426, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0009908688534530086, "ret_p3m": -0.29707791705138753, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.29707791705138753, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3466352867752238, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3974052801751371, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.049557369723836286, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10032736312374957, "ret_p6m": -0.2889610027699905, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2889610027699905, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.4281864408120317, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3787850978406264, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.13922543804204124, "bench_c_p6m": 0.08982409507063593, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03246757971695691, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.013616217957067356, "alpha_c_stated": -0.033458448570409915, "price_path": [-0.263, -0.237, -0.3474, -0.3068, -0.2776, -0.2776, -0.1737, -0.1672, -0.0325, 0.0795, -0.0195, -0.0081, -0.0487, 0.7078, 0.4724, 0.5414, 0.4481, 0.6575, 0.6136, 0.5536, 0.3604, 0.151, 0.336, 0.4756, 0.4302, 0.3312, 0.2938, 0.3084, 0.3003, 0.3166, 0.5065, 0.5081, 0.3782, 0.3214, 0.2289, 0.1802, 0.2403, 0.1981, 0.1542, 0.1623, 0.1964, 0.1299, 0.1071, 0.1412, 0.2938, 0.3247, 0.2938, 0.2419, 0.1916, 0.2614, 0.2321, 0.1234, 0.1737, 0.0649, 0.0649, 0.2938, 0.3766, 0.5211, 0.3896, 0.3182, 0.2727, 0.2208, 0.086, 0.0, 0.0958, 0.2484, 0.2565, 0.263, 0.263, 0.25, 0.1591, 0.1347, 0.1266, 0.2305, 0.1607, 0.1445, 0.2029, 0.1364, 0.1445, 0.0649, 0.0503, 0.0925, -0.0065, 0.0195, 0.0325, 0.0422, 0.0179, 0.0195, 0.0195, -0.0244, -0.0536, -0.0519, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0146, 0.026, 0.125, -0.0065, 0.0438, 0.1834, 0.1396, 0.099, 0.0779, 0.0227, 0.0828, 0.0828, 0.0373, 0.0519, 0.0422, -0.0244, -0.0471, -0.0568, -0.0649, -0.0942, -0.164, -0.2175, -0.1672, -0.1883, -0.237, -0.2078, -0.1981, -0.2386, -0.2273, -0.289, -0.2784, -0.2784, -0.2971, -0.2484, -0.2451, -0.1883, -0.224, -0.1705, -0.1916, -0.1218, -0.1201, -0.1802, -0.1932, -0.2078, -0.1591, -0.1883, -0.1753, -0.1867, -0.1445, -0.2143, -0.1964, -0.1591, -0.0974, -0.1429, -0.1656, -0.2029, -0.1542, -0.1591, -0.1721, -0.2045, -0.2208, -0.2808, -0.2403, -0.2581, -0.2305, -0.2305, -0.2516, -0.2614, -0.2468, -0.3003, -0.2987, -0.2922, -0.2679, -0.2175, -0.1445, -0.1412, -0.1315, -0.1153, -0.1185, -0.1526, -0.1055, -0.125, -0.1104, -0.0942, -0.1266, -0.1169, -0.1672, -0.151, -0.1136, -0.1364, -0.1867, -0.2127, -0.2354, -0.2565, -0.2744, -0.289]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2005392941255413817", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-28T21:38:30+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I remain short $OPEN.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Remains short Opendoor Technologies despite bullish parent thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@pappygist @Anderson_2155 @ericjackson @mikealfred @nejatian Good luck. I remain short $OPEN.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@Anderson_2155 @gnoble79 Even if they cut the margins in half!\n\n$OPEN end 2026:\n\nHigh: $28.4\n\nLow: $16.11\n\nBut sure, @ericjackson @mikealfred are “grifters”. I’d say they’re “gifters” @gnoble79. They don’t need to share their conviction with us, but we have a world class CEO now! @nejatian", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "pappygist", "ret_m1d": 0.030874838341568456, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030874838341568456, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.027298439788826956, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03358214970316087, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0027073113615924127, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0017153051479765757, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0017153051479765757, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0029365187613416, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.000499915140248941, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0022152202882255168, "ret_p1w": 0.08404807107507395, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08404807107507395, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.08423700682621393, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.08897050737688317, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004922436301809219, "ret_p1m": -0.003430528505701913, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.003430528505701913, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.014537595666206382, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.01869021452852282, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015259686022820906, "ret_p3m": -0.15951969820051637, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15951969820051637, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09991626702736633, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.15781668741551236, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.001703010785004011, "ret_p6m": -0.27958835948058613, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.27958835948058613, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.35173853396516086, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.39536105592990256, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11577269644931643, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.003430528505701913, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.014537595666206382, "alpha_c_stated": 0.01869021452852282, "price_path": [0.3825, 0.3739, 0.3911, 0.5918, 0.5935, 0.4563, 0.3962, 0.2985, 0.247, 0.3105, 0.2659, 0.2196, 0.2281, 0.2642, 0.1938, 0.1698, 0.2058, 0.3671, 0.3997, 0.3671, 0.3122, 0.259, 0.3328, 0.3019, 0.187, 0.2401, 0.1252, 0.1252, 0.3671, 0.4545, 0.6072, 0.4683, 0.3928, 0.3448, 0.2899, 0.1475, 0.0566, 0.1578, 0.319, 0.3276, 0.3345, 0.3345, 0.3208, 0.2247, 0.199, 0.1904, 0.3002, 0.2264, 0.2093, 0.271, 0.2007, 0.2093, 0.1252, 0.1098, 0.1544, 0.0497, 0.0772, 0.0909, 0.1012, 0.0755, 0.0772, 0.0772, 0.0309, 0.0, 0.0017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0412, 0.084, 0.1887, 0.0497, 0.1029, 0.2504, 0.2041, 0.1612, 0.1389, 0.0806, 0.1441, 0.1441, 0.0961, 0.1115, 0.1012, 0.0309, 0.0069, -0.0034, -0.012, -0.0429, -0.1166, -0.1732, -0.1201, -0.1424, -0.1938, -0.163, -0.1527, -0.1955, -0.1835, -0.2487, -0.2376, -0.2376, -0.2573, -0.2058, -0.2024, -0.1424, -0.1801, -0.1235, -0.1458, -0.072, -0.0703, -0.1338, -0.1475, -0.163, -0.1115, -0.1424, -0.1286, -0.1407, -0.0961, -0.1698, -0.1509, -0.1115, -0.0463, -0.0943, -0.1184, -0.1578, -0.1063, -0.1115, -0.1252, -0.1595, -0.1767, -0.2401, -0.1973, -0.2161, -0.187, -0.187, -0.2093, -0.2196, -0.2041, -0.2607, -0.259, -0.2521, -0.2264, -0.1732, -0.0961, -0.0926, -0.0823, -0.0652, -0.0686, -0.1046, -0.0549, -0.0755, -0.06, -0.0429, -0.0772, -0.0669, -0.1201, -0.1029, -0.0635, -0.0875, -0.1407, -0.1681, -0.1921, -0.2144, -0.2333, -0.2487, -0.2659, -0.2624, -0.2453, -0.2161, -0.223, -0.223, -0.2316, -0.1852, -0.1304, -0.1355, -0.0892, -0.072, -0.1647, -0.1509, -0.2419, -0.2607, -0.2556, -0.2316, -0.2333, -0.2384, -0.2093, -0.1852, -0.2367, -0.2333, -0.2333, -0.2659, -0.2796]}
{"unit_id": "reply:1968385569366622238", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-09-17T18:44:25+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisively bullish gold; Fed rate decisions are noise, accumulate as much gold as possible.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@GeorgeGammon Much ado about nothing. The Fed just usually follows the market. You can’t own enough gold.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Fed Rate Decision REACTION LIVE https://t.co/naM2BDo4BA", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "GeorgeGammon", "ret_m1d": 0.007775158345539213, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.007775158345539213, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.006531343017383007, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.006531343017383007, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012438153281562059, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0012438153281562059, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0040063094596702875, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0040063094596702875, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.008678714940097088, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.008678714940097088, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0046724054804268, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0046724054804268, "ret_p1w": 0.018844425558691258, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.018844425558691258, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.013151297624336644, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.013151297624336644, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005693127934354614, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005693127934354614, "ret_p1m": 0.17651426171723483, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.17651426171723483, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.17152083841652765, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.17152083841652765, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.004993423300707178, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004993423300707178, "ret_p3m": 0.17458523417262328, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17458523417262328, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13903005309104888, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.13903005309104888, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.035555181081574405, "bench_c_p3m": 0.035555181081574405, "ret_p6m": 0.38552394335252127, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.38552394335252127, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3692914324576688, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3692914324576688, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.016232510894852448, "bench_c_p6m": 0.016232510894852448, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.17651426171723483, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.17152083841652765, "alpha_c_stated": 0.17152083841652765, "price_path": [-0.0797, -0.0768, -0.0913, -0.0886, -0.0896, -0.1061, -0.0954, -0.0873, -0.0823, -0.0885, -0.0885, -0.0878, -0.0974, -0.0933, -0.0913, -0.0826, -0.0859, -0.0897, -0.0852, -0.0872, -0.0848, -0.0707, -0.0619, -0.0736, -0.0792, -0.0878, -0.0937, -0.0912, -0.1069, -0.1009, -0.0827, -0.0773, -0.0766, -0.0786, -0.0708, -0.071, -0.0843, -0.0852, -0.0824, -0.0882, -0.0877, -0.0891, -0.0941, -0.0849, -0.0881, -0.0783, -0.0805, -0.0739, -0.072, -0.0651, -0.0561, -0.0561, -0.0338, -0.0262, -0.0305, -0.0176, -0.0064, -0.0086, -0.0051, -0.0066, -0.0046, 0.0058, 0.0078, 0.0, -0.004, 0.0066, 0.024, 0.0282, 0.0188, 0.0231, 0.029, 0.046, 0.0549, 0.0566, 0.0529, 0.0613, 0.0813, 0.0869, 0.1048, 0.0845, 0.0954, 0.122, 0.13, 0.1496, 0.1765, 0.1544, 0.1964, 0.1195, 0.1196, 0.1241, 0.1203, 0.0891, 0.0813, 0.0772, 0.0984, 0.0924, 0.0944, 0.0752, 0.0877, 0.0864, 0.093, 0.1229, 0.1273, 0.1455, 0.1362, 0.1157, 0.1029, 0.1109, 0.1127, 0.1124, 0.1107, 0.1283, 0.1279, 0.137, 0.137, 0.1511, 0.1566, 0.1492, 0.1481, 0.1489, 0.1468, 0.1438, 0.1497, 0.1546, 0.167, 0.1735, 0.1746, 0.1749, 0.1849, 0.1828, 0.1841, 0.2115, 0.2275, 0.2225, 0.2225, 0.2367, 0.1829, 0.1838, 0.1761, 0.1761, 0.1819, 0.213, 0.2262, 0.2144, 0.2211, 0.23, 0.253, 0.2512, 0.264, 0.2563, 0.2502, 0.2502, 0.2975, 0.3164, 0.3407, 0.3592, 0.3791, 0.4129, 0.4677, 0.4716, 0.3204, 0.2676, 0.3482, 0.3472, 0.3113, 0.3516, 0.386, 0.3722, 0.3877, 0.3396, 0.3729, 0.3729, 0.3301, 0.36, 0.3638, 0.3907, 0.4283, 0.4085, 0.4049, 0.417, 0.4356, 0.4541, 0.3893, 0.4001, 0.3833, 0.4052, 0.4023, 0.4181, 0.4133, 0.3855]}
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{"unit_id": "reply:1985747105106051334", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-04T16:32:57+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA has no moat and deliveries will decline for the third consecutive year in 2026", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: no moat and deliveries forecast to decline for a third consecutive year in 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@JerryCohen85748 I have been doing this for longer than you and have forgotten more about autos than you will ever know. $TSLA has no moat and deliveries will decline for the third consecutive year in 2026.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 This is why it was alienated by the left on a global level this is why they shorted the stock to try to inflict as much pain on Elon Musk and his supporters. So George bring me something new I've done this for almost four decades.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JerryCohen85748", "ret_m1d": 0.05426998789353554, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.05426998789353554, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.042274156235644345, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03739062220973888, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.011995831657891198, "bench_c_m1d": 0.016879365683796665, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.040089130615176494, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.040089130615176494, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03662365395902234, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.02791242824422513, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003465476656154154, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012176702370951364, "ret_p1w": -0.010444367141857702, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.010444367141857702, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.021936654761108842, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.016280769218346425, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01149228761925114, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0058364020764887226, "ret_p1m": 0.005582272575148872, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.005582272575148872, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.007228070046240376, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.002097202155082911, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012810342621389248, "bench_c_p1m": 0.003485070420065961, "ret_p3m": -0.031175450860009613, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.031175450860009613, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.05898001343380954, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.050743240510283116, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02780456257379993, "bench_c_p3m": 0.019567789650273504, "ret_p6m": -0.16085179940088667, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.16085179940088667, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2206701881547477, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.1459603115424618, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.05981838875386103, "bench_c_p6m": -0.014891487858424868, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2746, -0.258, -0.2369, -0.2328, -0.2361, -0.2446, -0.2559, -0.2456, -0.2587, -0.2709, -0.2795, -0.2347, -0.2198, -0.2084, -0.2131, -0.2212, -0.2485, -0.2485, -0.2586, -0.248, -0.238, -0.2103, -0.2203, -0.219, -0.2171, -0.1698, -0.1088, -0.077, -0.051, -0.0414, -0.0617, -0.0409, -0.0226, -0.0414, -0.0033, -0.047, -0.0087, -0.0024, 0.001, 0.0342, -0.0186, -0.0325, 0.0202, -0.0251, -0.0125, -0.0196, -0.0693, -0.0188, -0.0338, -0.0205, -0.0349, -0.0111, 0.0071, -0.0037, -0.0119, 0.0106, -0.0237, 0.0184, 0.0367, 0.0388, -0.0094, 0.0277, 0.0543, 0.0, 0.0401, 0.0037, -0.0332, 0.0022, -0.0104, -0.0307, -0.0951, -0.0898, -0.0795, -0.0968, -0.0906, -0.1104, -0.1197, -0.0596, -0.056, -0.0398, -0.0398, -0.0317, -0.0318, -0.0338, 0.0056, 0.0231, 0.0242, -0.0105, 0.002, 0.0162, 0.0059, 0.0331, 0.0699, 0.1027, 0.0518, 0.088, 0.0831, 0.1001, 0.093, 0.0926, 0.0926, 0.0696, 0.0346, 0.0229, 0.0123, 0.0123, -0.0139, 0.0167, -0.0254, -0.0289, -0.019, 0.0017, 0.0106, 0.0066, -0.0114, -0.0128, -0.0152, -0.0152, -0.0563, -0.0289, 0.0115, 0.0108, -0.0204, -0.0301, -0.0288, -0.0624, -0.0312, -0.0505, -0.0502, -0.0861, -0.1059, -0.0746, -0.0606, -0.0429, -0.036, -0.0612, -0.0604, -0.0604, -0.0757, -0.0741, -0.0733, -0.073, -0.1, -0.0785, -0.0605, -0.0803, -0.094, -0.0922, -0.1167, -0.0863, -0.0871, -0.107, -0.1026, -0.1013, -0.082, -0.1109, -0.1194, -0.1096, -0.1013, -0.1159, -0.144, -0.1717, -0.1427, -0.1378, -0.1313, -0.1624, -0.1855, -0.2003, -0.1632, -0.1418, -0.1883, -0.1883, -0.2058, -0.2197, -0.2274, -0.222, -0.2145, -0.2067, -0.1802, -0.1177, -0.1246, -0.0982, -0.1165, -0.1302, -0.1277, -0.1588, -0.153, -0.1476, -0.1536, -0.1609]}
{"unit_id": "orig:1984796891238785353", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-11-02T01:37:09+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect earnings to fall again in 2026. $TSLA may even generate a loss as unit sales decline for a third consecutive year. At $456, $TSLA is valued at 270x earnings and 14x revenues…what could possibly go wrong?", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: expects earnings to fall in 2026, possible net loss on third year of unit sales decline; stock at 270x earnings is grossly overvalued.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Consensus $TSLA EPS estimate is $1.65 for 2025. \nI expect earnings to fall again in 2026. $TSLA may even generate a loss as unit sales decline for a third consecutive year. \nAt $456, $TSLA is valued at 270x earnings and 14x revenues…what could possibly go wrong? @GordonJohnson19 @BradMunchen @MichaelMOTTCM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02521510276429828, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.02521510276429828, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02334196850247605, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015924507298338608, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.001873134261822229, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009290595465959672, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05147636612701911, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05147636612701911, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.039622728708138544, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.034877184106597126, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01185363741888057, "bench_c_p1d": -0.016599182020421988, "ret_p1w": -0.04940535126523138, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04940535126523138, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04662478391421643, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03610953855854504, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.002780567351014951, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013295812706686339, "ret_p1m": -0.08354507182515414, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08354507182515414, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0808962605886181, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.059843680641246455, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0026488112365360417, "bench_c_p1m": -0.023701391183907683, "ret_p3m": -0.11061767000174882, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.11061767000174882, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12927714564843684, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11342689983758125, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.018659475646688017, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0028092298358324275, "ret_p6m": -0.19717319014086154, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.19717319014086154, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24459071175881575, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.16733929731943542, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.047417521617954206, "bench_c_p6m": -0.029833892821426122, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.317, -0.3119, -0.2962, -0.2761, -0.2723, -0.2754, -0.2835, -0.2942, -0.2844, -0.2969, -0.3085, -0.3165, -0.2741, -0.26, -0.2492, -0.2536, -0.2613, -0.2872, -0.2872, -0.2968, -0.2867, -0.2772, -0.2509, -0.2604, -0.2592, -0.2574, -0.2126, -0.1546, -0.1245, -0.0998, -0.0908, -0.11, -0.0903, -0.0729, -0.0908, -0.0546, -0.096, -0.0597, -0.0537, -0.0505, -0.019, -0.0691, -0.0823, -0.0323, -0.0753, -0.0634, -0.0701, -0.1172, -0.0693, -0.0835, -0.0709, -0.0846, -0.062, -0.0447, -0.055, -0.0628, -0.0414, -0.074, -0.0341, -0.0167, -0.0146, -0.0604, -0.0252, 0.0, -0.0515, -0.0135, -0.048, -0.0829, -0.0494, -0.0614, -0.0806, -0.1417, -0.1367, -0.1269, -0.1433, -0.1375, -0.1562, -0.165, -0.108, -0.1046, -0.0892, -0.0892, -0.0816, -0.0816, -0.0835, -0.0462, -0.0295, -0.0285, -0.0615, -0.0495, -0.0361, -0.0459, -0.0201, 0.0148, 0.0459, -0.0024, 0.032, 0.0274, 0.0435, 0.0367, 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.0146, -0.0186, -0.0298, -0.0398, -0.0398, -0.0647, -0.0357, -0.0756, -0.0789, -0.0695, -0.0499, -0.0414, -0.0452, -0.0623, -0.0636, -0.0659, -0.0659, -0.1049, -0.0788, -0.0406, -0.0412, -0.0708, -0.08, -0.0788, -0.1106, -0.081, -0.0994, -0.0991, -0.1331, -0.1519, -0.1223, -0.109, -0.0921, -0.0856, -0.1095, -0.1087, -0.1087, -0.1233, -0.1218, -0.121, -0.1207, -0.1463, -0.1259, -0.1088, -0.1277, -0.1406, -0.1389, -0.1621, -0.1333, -0.1341, -0.153, -0.1488, -0.1476, -0.1293, -0.1566, -0.1648, -0.1555, -0.1475, -0.1614, -0.188, -0.2144, -0.1869, -0.1822, -0.176, -0.2055, -0.2275, -0.2415, -0.2063, -0.186, -0.2301, -0.2301, -0.2467, -0.2599, -0.2671, -0.2621, -0.255, -0.2476, -0.2224, -0.1632, -0.1697, -0.1447, -0.162, -0.175, -0.1726, -0.2021, -0.1966, -0.1915, -0.1972]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2003156292630905005", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-22T17:30:51+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Up and to the right. $GDX $GDXJ", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish precious metals complex including GDX and GDXJ; rally far from over.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "John Roque has been relentlessly bullish on the previous metals complex. Is the rally over? Not even close. “It ain’t over until ‘til it’s over.” @daChartLife @Seawolfcap @gave_vincent @VD718 @davevermilion @DonDurrett @htsfhickey https://t.co/xZqhrT1AV5\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/gM0ot4OyGR\n\n---\n\nUp and to the right. $GDX $GDXJ https://t.co/f7ES4jmDR7", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0335217895862403, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0335217895862403, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.027330555907219334, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.027330555907219334, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0009979633797523313, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0009979633797523313, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0035725289675783145, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0035725289675783145, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "ret_p1w": -0.04801510109116924, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04801510109116924, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.05242494391626418, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05242494391626418, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "ret_p1m": 0.13972054148904167, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.13972054148904167, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.15030710308930806, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.15030710308930806, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "ret_p3m": -0.08072742021136414, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.08072742021136414, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.044178175532913144, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.044178175532913144, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "ret_p6m": -0.03260149070145335, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.03260149070145335, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.13123796780168373, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.13123796780168373, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.13972054148904167, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.15030710308930806, "alpha_c_stated": 0.15030710308930806, "price_path": [-0.2038, -0.1949, -0.1778, -0.1664, -0.1589, -0.1509, -0.1512, -0.1514, -0.1346, -0.1526, -0.1286, -0.1676, -0.1657, -0.1262, -0.1363, -0.1031, -0.0704, -0.1333, -0.1153, -0.1987, -0.1969, -0.1876, -0.1985, -0.2304, -0.2181, -0.2176, -0.1974, -0.2067, -0.2151, -0.2483, -0.222, -0.221, -0.2013, -0.1635, -0.1555, -0.1275, -0.1518, -0.1616, -0.1749, -0.1674, -0.159, -0.1967, -0.1892, -0.1417, -0.1435, -0.1022, -0.1022, -0.0837, -0.0882, -0.1016, -0.1076, -0.104, -0.1079, -0.1285, -0.0979, -0.0827, -0.0504, -0.057, -0.0659, -0.0661, -0.0551, -0.0569, -0.0335, 0.0, 0.001, -0.0053, -0.0053, 0.0123, -0.048, -0.037, -0.0489, -0.0489, -0.0493, -0.0192, 0.0217, 0.0098, 0.0151, 0.0264, 0.0614, 0.0697, 0.0741, 0.0768, 0.0783, 0.0783, 0.1397, 0.1232, 0.1662, 0.1867, 0.1918, 0.2119, 0.2437, 0.1974, 0.0446, 0.0445, 0.0892, 0.0945, 0.0251, 0.08, 0.1409, 0.1423, 0.1751, 0.0898, 0.1526, 0.1526, 0.1117, 0.1373, 0.1559, 0.1783, 0.223, 0.2275, 0.2326, 0.2629, 0.2845, 0.279, 0.167, 0.1741, 0.1291, 0.1242, 0.136, 0.1463, 0.124, 0.1011, 0.0342, 0.0466, 0.0419, -0.023, -0.0807, -0.1116, -0.0754, -0.0741, -0.0428, -0.0864, -0.0487, -0.0487, 0.0176, 0.0646, 0.0489, 0.0489, 0.0404, 0.0531, 0.0887, 0.0906, 0.1021, 0.0954, 0.1172, 0.0842, 0.0829, 0.1127, 0.0992, 0.0312, 0.0477, 0.0223, 0.0461, 0.0267, -0.0182, -0.0439, -0.021, -0.034, -0.0502, -0.0485, 0.0251, 0.0171, 0.0489, 0.0823, 0.0772, 0.0671, 0.0418, -0.0314, -0.0337, -0.071, -0.0424, -0.0465, -0.0572, -0.0572, -0.0186, -0.0526, -0.0333, -0.0077, -0.0388, -0.0236, -0.0574, -0.0419, -0.1257, -0.1276, -0.1396, -0.1815, -0.1382, -0.1126, -0.0544, -0.0326]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2003156292630905005", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2025-12-22T17:30:51+00:00", "symbol": "GDXJ", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Up and to the right. $GDX $GDXJ", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish precious metals complex including GDX and GDXJ; rally far from over.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDXJ"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "John Roque has been relentlessly bullish on the previous metals complex. Is the rally over? Not even close. “It ain’t over until ‘til it’s over.” @daChartLife @Seawolfcap @gave_vincent @VD718 @davevermilion @DonDurrett @htsfhickey https://t.co/xZqhrT1AV5\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/gM0ot4OyGR\n\n---\n\nUp and to the right. $GDX $GDXJ https://t.co/f7ES4jmDR7", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.04182504018147781, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04182504018147781, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.035633806502456844, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.035633806502456844, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.004570492347330646, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.004570492347330646, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "ret_p1w": -0.05150000254313147, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05150000254313147, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.05590984536822641, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05590984536822641, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "ret_p1m": 0.1333333333333333, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1333333333333333, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.1439198949335997, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1439198949335997, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "ret_p3m": -0.0919166564941406, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0919166564941406, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.055367411815689604, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.055367411815689604, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "ret_p6m": -0.04633331298828125, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.04633331298828125, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.14496979008851163, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.14496979008851163, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1333333333333333, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.1439198949335997, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1439198949335997, "price_path": [-0.2442, -0.2344, -0.2163, -0.1998, -0.1933, -0.1862, -0.1884, -0.1876, -0.1652, -0.1799, -0.1463, -0.1863, -0.1862, -0.1436, -0.1559, -0.1164, -0.0901, -0.1601, -0.1355, -0.2253, -0.2262, -0.2174, -0.2272, -0.2564, -0.2429, -0.2445, -0.2267, -0.237, -0.2499, -0.2868, -0.2668, -0.264, -0.2422, -0.2044, -0.2014, -0.1737, -0.1969, -0.2063, -0.2177, -0.2107, -0.2034, -0.239, -0.2345, -0.1867, -0.1842, -0.142, -0.142, -0.1098, -0.118, -0.1261, -0.1304, -0.1286, -0.131, -0.1489, -0.1129, -0.0967, -0.0643, -0.069, -0.083, -0.0777, -0.0663, -0.0698, -0.0418, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0086, -0.0086, 0.0133, -0.0515, -0.0405, -0.0518, -0.0518, -0.0567, -0.0222, 0.0157, 0.0016, 0.0082, 0.0162, 0.0525, 0.0513, 0.0557, 0.0596, 0.0673, 0.0673, 0.1333, 0.1228, 0.1841, 0.2086, 0.2024, 0.2285, 0.2535, 0.1973, 0.0341, 0.034, 0.0822, 0.0863, 0.0097, 0.0713, 0.1408, 0.1361, 0.1764, 0.0738, 0.1362, 0.1362, 0.09, 0.1173, 0.1494, 0.1834, 0.222, 0.2257, 0.2321, 0.2773, 0.3016, 0.2919, 0.1768, 0.1874, 0.1393, 0.1347, 0.1436, 0.1578, 0.128, 0.0966, 0.0328, 0.0487, 0.0427, -0.0302, -0.0919, -0.1269, -0.0831, -0.0851, -0.0559, -0.1173, -0.0785, -0.0782, 0.0003, 0.0437, 0.0183, 0.0183, 0.0102, 0.0243, 0.0604, 0.0656, 0.0737, 0.0754, 0.1064, 0.0782, 0.0786, 0.1093, 0.0963, 0.0207, 0.0478, 0.0167, 0.0312, 0.0123, -0.0272, -0.054, -0.0305, -0.0385, -0.0576, -0.057, 0.0229, 0.0202, 0.0487, 0.0792, 0.0822, 0.0745, 0.0472, -0.0302, -0.0377, -0.0808, -0.0552, -0.0649, -0.0698, -0.0698, -0.0278, -0.062, -0.0431, -0.0059, -0.0421, -0.0335, -0.076, -0.0675, -0.1618, -0.1532, -0.1705, -0.2122, -0.1577, -0.1312, -0.0677, -0.0463]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2003156292630905005", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2025-12-22T17:30:51+00:00", "symbol": "precious metals", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Is the rally over? Not even close. \"It ain't over until 'til it's over.\"", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish precious metals complex including GDX and GDXJ; rally far from over.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLTR"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLTR tracks broad precious metals basket", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "John Roque has been relentlessly bullish on the previous metals complex. Is the rally over? Not even close. “It ain’t over until ‘til it’s over.” @daChartLife @Seawolfcap @gave_vincent @VD718 @davevermilion @DonDurrett @htsfhickey https://t.co/xZqhrT1AV5\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/gM0ot4OyGR\n\n---\n\nUp and to the right. $GDX $GDXJ https://t.co/f7ES4jmDR7", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.024646895829037008, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.024646895829037008, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01845566215001604, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01845566215001604, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006191233679020969, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02608824805656451, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02608824805656451, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.021517755709233866, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.021517755709233866, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004570492347330646, "ret_p1w": 0.003939691201226836, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.003939691201226836, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.00047015162386809806, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.00047015162386809806, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004409842825094934, "ret_p1m": 0.17281637996628163, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.17281637996628163, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.18340294156654802, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.18340294156654802, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "bench_c_p1m": -0.010586561600266386, "ret_p3m": 0.03122898058547441, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03122898058547441, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.0677782252639254, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.0677782252639254, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "bench_c_p3m": -0.036549244678451, "ret_p6m": -0.026664759623487466, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.026664759623487466, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.12530123672371785, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.12530123672371785, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "bench_c_p6m": 0.09863647710023038, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.17281637996628163, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.18340294156654802, "alpha_c_stated": 0.18340294156654802, "price_path": [-0.2384, -0.2272, -0.2194, -0.2075, -0.2051, -0.2012, -0.205, -0.1943, -0.1799, -0.1807, -0.1616, -0.1727, -0.1638, -0.1388, -0.137, -0.0935, -0.0977, -0.1262, -0.1003, -0.1611, -0.1579, -0.155, -0.1591, -0.1839, -0.1866, -0.1848, -0.1669, -0.1732, -0.1733, -0.1898, -0.1778, -0.1818, -0.1755, -0.1485, -0.1427, -0.1223, -0.1342, -0.1522, -0.1621, -0.1547, -0.1522, -0.1565, -0.1595, -0.1443, -0.1429, -0.1281, -0.1281, -0.104, -0.0964, -0.0954, -0.0948, -0.1032, -0.0969, -0.0994, -0.0824, -0.0774, -0.0611, -0.0653, -0.0508, -0.0515, -0.0305, -0.0359, -0.0246, 0.0, 0.0261, 0.0224, 0.0224, 0.0683, 0.0039, 0.0197, -0.0122, -0.0122, -0.0009, 0.0369, 0.074, 0.0505, 0.0466, 0.0658, 0.1054, 0.114, 0.1511, 0.1395, 0.1216, 0.1216, 0.1728, 0.1743, 0.2076, 0.2517, 0.2892, 0.3181, 0.3703, 0.3703, 0.1235, 0.0803, 0.1442, 0.1564, 0.0602, 0.1059, 0.1558, 0.1338, 0.1582, 0.0837, 0.114, 0.114, 0.0736, 0.1091, 0.1164, 0.1609, 0.2012, 0.1842, 0.1895, 0.1975, 0.2324, 0.2224, 0.1476, 0.1569, 0.1425, 0.1613, 0.1749, 0.1909, 0.1766, 0.1547, 0.1218, 0.1275, 0.1179, 0.0761, 0.0312, -0.011, -0.0195, -0.0165, 0.0129, -0.0366, -0.0008, 0.001, 0.0508, 0.0614, 0.0383, 0.0383, 0.0367, 0.0414, 0.057, 0.0682, 0.069, 0.0633, 0.0981, 0.0906, 0.0863, 0.1079, 0.0937, 0.0538, 0.0742, 0.0533, 0.0593, 0.0514, 0.0276, 0.0131, 0.0356, 0.0428, 0.0171, 0.0222, 0.0655, 0.0728, 0.0847, 0.1128, 0.1132, 0.1149, 0.0868, 0.0358, 0.0425, 0.0132, 0.0328, 0.036, 0.0229, 0.0229, 0.0327, 0.0138, 0.0233, 0.0291, 0.0178, 0.0208, 0.0023, 0.0116, -0.0421, -0.0419, -0.0654, -0.0968, -0.061, -0.0582, -0.0295, -0.0267]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2025715526253842677", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-22T23:33:12+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "BETR is down 37% and will keep falling IMHO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Expects BETR to continue falling from current levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You have some nerve. I owe you nothing, You can do your own research. The info is all there in the public domain. \n\nBETR is down 37%  and will keep falling IMHO. No need for me to say more. I am very happy with the way things are playing out. And @danielsethlewis is an arrogant blowhard who does not deserve a response. I will just let the stock price do the talking for me,", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @danielsethlewis Make the argument.  I read Daniel’s responses and none of them were arrogant.  You never articulated a well thought out response George.  This is your chance.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "TribeRuffner", "ret_m1d": 0.06280017665698368, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.06280017665698368, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.052483462877497944, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.052483462877497944, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010316713779485731, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010316713779485731, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04950129913906487, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04950129913906487, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04223282386886651, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04223282386886651, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00726847527019836, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00726847527019836, "ret_p1w": 0.29294423326838803, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.29294423326838803, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.28709719028004255, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.28709719028004255, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0058470429883454855, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0058470429883454855, "ret_p1m": 0.05615073789802438, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.05615073789802438, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.09634207735786748, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.09634207735786748, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0401913394598431, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0401913394598431, "ret_p3m": -0.07536014152851134, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07536014152851134, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16674237562117977, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.16674237562117977, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09138223409266844, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09138223409266844, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.05615073789802438, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.09634207735786748, "alpha_c_stated": -0.09634207735786748, "price_path": [0.7414, 0.7414, 0.7887, 0.6668, 0.6151, 0.6395, 0.8452, 0.6786, 0.7233, 0.758, 0.8703, 0.7939, 0.543, 0.4636, 0.4363, 0.2918, 0.3037, 0.218, 0.3506, 0.3269, 0.3668, 0.3668, 0.2904, 0.2604, 0.218, 0.2035, 0.2035, 0.2833, 0.341, 0.2937, 0.2479, 0.3831, 0.4728, 0.4156, 0.4348, 0.3938, 0.355, 0.253, 0.253, 0.1773, 0.2065, 0.1866, 0.1577, 0.0499, 0.1319, 0.1777, 0.1648, 0.1197, -0.0074, 0.0284, 0.017, -0.0665, -0.0144, 0.031, 0.0558, 0.0754, 0.0779, 0.1585, 0.1585, 0.154, 0.1784, 0.1696, 0.0628, 0.0, 0.0495, 0.1426, 0.2279, 0.2154, 0.2929, 0.2157, 0.1607, 0.2338, 0.1751, 0.3184, 0.4119, 0.4751, 0.3543, 0.2726, 0.0602, 0.1533, 0.0517, 0.0709, 0.0089, 0.0709, 0.0562, 0.1607, 0.2235, 0.1326, 0.2335, 0.3158, 0.28, 0.3894, 0.3894, 0.4909, 0.6564, 0.2931, 0.191, 0.2098, 0.2959, 0.2837, 0.413, 0.379, 0.5231, 0.754, 0.7196, 0.6952, 0.5187, 0.5715, 0.502, 0.5582, 0.4451, 0.5194, 0.6395, 0.5356, 0.5674, 0.577, 0.1274, 0.1108, 0.147, 0.1223, 0.0713, 0.075, -0.0026, -0.0746, -0.0669, -0.1008, -0.0754, -0.0539, -0.0539, -0.0222, -0.0059, 0.0451, 0.0776, 0.0717, 0.0469, -0.0244, 0.0199, -0.0536, -0.0598, -0.075, -0.1234, -0.1097, -0.0207, 0.065, 0.0805, 0.0041, 0.0502, 0.0502, -0.0255, -0.051, -0.0325, -0.055, -0.0517, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2028614398852399615", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-02T23:32:17+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long gold as true safe haven vs geopolitical/dollar risk; short Bitcoin as a correlated speculative asset, not digital gold.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Gold since April 2025: +60%\nBitcoin since April 2025: -30%\n\nGold since its January high: still near all-time highs.\nBitcoin since its October high: -48%.\n\n5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st.\n\nAnd people still call it \"digital gold.\"\n\nLet me explain why that framing will cost you money:\n\nWhen the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. \n\nWhen equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. \n\nWhen uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled.\n\nThis isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are.\n\nGold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week.\n\nBitcoin does.\n\nSometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time.\n\nAnd narrative always follows price. That's the way it works.\n\nWhen Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. \n\nNow that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore.\n\nGold doesn't have that problem.\n\nCentral banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months.\n\nNobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter.\n\nI said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto:\n\n\"If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down.\"\n\nNASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up.\n\nIt's not complicated.\n\nGold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar.\n\nIt's been doing this for 5,000 years.\n\nBitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too.\n\nAnd in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing.\n\nNot the imitation.\n\nGOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES\n\nBITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/fW9Py3HvOn", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.046695400238278895, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.046695400238278895, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03780276742893918, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03780276742893918, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008892632809339718, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008892632809339718, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.007818116439543887, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007818116439543887, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0007627604812463495, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0007627604812463495, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007055355958297538, "bench_c_p1d": 0.007055355958297538, "ret_p1w": 0.020762956378391317, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.020762956378391317, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.025393171830691452, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.025393171830691452, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.004630215452300135, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004630215452300135, "ret_p1m": -0.06476696367642998, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.06476696367642998, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.030517998277680647, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.030517998277680647, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.03424896539874933, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03424896539874933, "ret_p3m": -0.10898453012944187, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.10898453012944187, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.22395209977139796, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.22395209977139796, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11496756964195609, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11496756964195609, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.06476696367642998, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.030517998277680647, "alpha_c_stated": -0.030517998277680647, "price_path": [-0.173, -0.1745, -0.1767, -0.1725, -0.1689, -0.16, -0.1553, -0.1545, -0.1543, -0.1471, -0.1486, -0.1476, -0.128, -0.1164, -0.1201, -0.1201, -0.1098, -0.1485, -0.1479, -0.1534, -0.1534, -0.1492, -0.1268, -0.1174, -0.1258, -0.121, -0.1146, -0.0981, -0.0994, -0.0901, -0.0957, -0.1001, -0.1001, -0.066, -0.0524, -0.0349, -0.0217, -0.0073, 0.017, 0.0564, 0.0593, -0.0495, -0.0876, -0.0296, -0.0303, -0.0561, -0.0271, -0.0024, -0.0123, -0.0011, -0.0358, -0.0118, -0.0118, -0.0426, -0.0211, -0.0183, 0.001, 0.0281, 0.0138, 0.0113, 0.02, 0.0333, 0.0467, 0.0, 0.0078, -0.0043, 0.0115, 0.0094, 0.0208, 0.0173, -0.0027, -0.0156, -0.0165, -0.0189, -0.05, -0.0891, -0.117, -0.1369, -0.1367, -0.1108, -0.1442, -0.1142, -0.1144, -0.0809, -0.0648, -0.0827, -0.0827, -0.0865, -0.0776, -0.0718, -0.0646, -0.0662, -0.07, -0.0492, -0.0591, -0.0599, -0.0474, -0.0556, -0.0824, -0.0702, -0.0792, -0.0745, -0.0817, -0.0988, -0.1084, -0.095, -0.096, -0.1141, -0.1065, -0.0794, -0.0779, -0.0734, -0.0715, -0.0752, -0.0804, -0.0874, -0.1086, -0.1062, -0.121, -0.1084, -0.1093, -0.116, -0.116, -0.1156, -0.1274, -0.1183, -0.109, -0.1215, -0.12, -0.1287, -0.1215, -0.1536, -0.1514, -0.1652, -0.1999, -0.1748, -0.1743, -0.1529, -0.1506, -0.1699, -0.1731, -0.1731, -0.1785, -0.194, -0.2184, -0.2108, -0.2019, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2028614398852399615", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-02T23:32:17+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long gold as true safe haven vs geopolitical/dollar risk; short Bitcoin as a correlated speculative asset, not digital gold.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Gold since April 2025: +60%\nBitcoin since April 2025: -30%\n\nGold since its January high: still near all-time highs.\nBitcoin since its October high: -48%.\n\n5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st.\n\nAnd people still call it \"digital gold.\"\n\nLet me explain why that framing will cost you money:\n\nWhen the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. \n\nWhen equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. \n\nWhen uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled.\n\nThis isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are.\n\nGold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week.\n\nBitcoin does.\n\nSometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time.\n\nAnd narrative always follows price. That's the way it works.\n\nWhen Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. \n\nNow that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore.\n\nGold doesn't have that problem.\n\nCentral banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months.\n\nNobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter.\n\nI said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto:\n\n\"If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down.\"\n\nNASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up.\n\nIt's not complicated.\n\nGold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar.\n\nIt's been doing this for 5,000 years.\n\nBitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too.\n\nAnd in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing.\n\nNot the imitation.\n\nGOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES\n\nBITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/fW9Py3HvOn", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.04207951805394994, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04207951805394994, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.050972150863289656, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.050972150863289656, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008892632809339718, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008892632809339718, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007011227255569463, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007011227255569463, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.014066583213867001, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.014066583213867001, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007055355958297538, "bench_c_p1d": 0.007055355958297538, "ret_p1w": -0.005430230837063621, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.005430230837063621, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0008000153847634861, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0008000153847634861, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.004630215452300135, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004630215452300135, "ret_p1m": -0.007888511013301902, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.007888511013301902, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02636045438544743, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.02636045438544743, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.03424896539874933, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03424896539874933, "ret_p3m": 0.0692205624044322, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0692205624044322, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.045747007237523896, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.045747007237523896, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11496756964195609, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11496756964195609, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.007888511013301902, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02636045438544743, "alpha_c_stated": -0.02636045438544743, "price_path": [0.3599, 0.3397, 0.2997, 0.3179, 0.3477, 0.338, 0.3451, 0.3125, 0.2565, 0.2773, 0.2525, 0.2426, 0.281, 0.2866, 0.271, 0.2739, 0.2684, 0.2694, 0.267, 0.2858, 0.2724, 0.2902, 0.3078, 0.3651, 0.3628, 0.3276, 0.3235, 0.3161, 0.3259, 0.386, 0.4094, 0.3893, 0.3889, 0.3457, 0.284, 0.2995, 0.3008, 0.3014, 0.2834, 0.2956, 0.2967, 0.2295, 0.2232, 0.1441, 0.0997, 0.0617, -0.0883, 0.0259, 0.0196, 0.0003, -0.0259, -0.0371, 0.0012, 0.001, -0.0186, -0.0342, -0.0264, -0.0112, -0.0605, -0.0683, -0.0119, -0.0192, -0.0421, 0.0, -0.007, 0.0572, 0.03, -0.0093, -0.0054, 0.0167, 0.0208, 0.025, 0.0319, 0.0885, 0.0748, 0.0359, 0.0165, 0.0254, 0.0311, 0.0253, 0.0368, 0.0002, -0.0354, -0.0303, -0.0079, -0.0101, -0.0274, -0.0268, 0.0012, 0.046, 0.0341, 0.0435, 0.0611, 0.083, 0.0786, 0.0877, 0.0927, 0.1214, 0.1032, 0.1102, 0.1371, 0.138, 0.1262, 0.1249, 0.1101, 0.1018, 0.1095, 0.1367, 0.1607, 0.1767, 0.184, 0.1633, 0.1659, 0.1883, 0.1701, 0.1527, 0.1785, 0.1496, 0.1189, 0.116, 0.1262, 0.1274, 0.0976, 0.1236, 0.1025, 0.081, 0.0692, 0.0668, 0.037, -0.0301, -0.0692, -0.0723, -0.1142, -0.0827, -0.1037, -0.1065, -0.0758, -0.0761, -0.0362, -0.0462, -0.0634, -0.0855, -0.0761, -0.0701, -0.0888, -0.1131, -0.1316, -0.1274, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2041601066475614363", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-07T19:36:40+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is about to completely collapse as the stock catches down to the imploding fundamentals. No narrative will save the stock this time. The destruction in market cap will be epic.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bearish TSLA; stock to collapse as price catches down to imploding fundamentals, no narrative can save it.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "My good friend @GordonJohnson19 \ntotally nails it with this brilliant thread. \n\nCar crash in progress. \n\n$TSLA is about to completely collapse as the stock catches down to the imploding fundamentals. \n\nNo narrative will save the stock this time.\n\nThe destruction in market cap will be epic.\n\nBRING IT. THIS WILL BE EPIC.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "🧵 THREAD: What truly sucks about being a $TSLA skeptic/bear is that you can spend literally hundreds of hrs building detailed delivery models, triangulating regional registration data, parsing supplier checks, &amp; modeling qtrly earnings — get the fundamental call exactly right —", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.017798971690092813, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.017798971690092813, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.018238778739369965, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0060145727557257, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0004398070492771522, "bench_c_m1d": 0.011784398934367113, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.009808146419583275, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.009808146419583275, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03527778293177419, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03810918936063035, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.02546963651219092, "bench_c_p1d": 0.028301042941047072, "ret_p1w": 0.050627487724080655, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.050627487724080655, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.002829768841603686, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.02982167158651383, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.05345725656568434, "bench_c_p1w": 0.08044915931059449, "ret_p1m": 0.15023804415642283, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.15023804415642283, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.03705874044765567, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.03796183590813085, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.11317930370876716, "bench_c_p1m": 0.11227620824829199, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.15023804415642283, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.03705874044765567, "alpha_c_stated": -0.03796183590813085, "price_path": [0.2572, 0.2837, 0.2951, 0.2901, 0.267, 0.2652, 0.2621, 0.2621, 0.2094, 0.2446, 0.2963, 0.2954, 0.2554, 0.243, 0.2447, 0.2017, 0.2416, 0.2168, 0.2173, 0.1712, 0.1459, 0.186, 0.2039, 0.2266, 0.2355, 0.2031, 0.2042, 0.2042, 0.1846, 0.1866, 0.1877, 0.188, 0.1534, 0.181, 0.2041, 0.1787, 0.1611, 0.1635, 0.1321, 0.171, 0.1699, 0.1445, 0.1501, 0.1517, 0.1765, 0.1395, 0.1285, 0.1411, 0.1518, 0.1331, 0.0971, 0.0615, 0.0987, 0.1049, 0.1134, 0.0734, 0.0438, 0.0249, 0.0724, 0.0998, 0.0402, 0.0402, 0.0178, 0.0, -0.0098, -0.003, 0.0066, 0.0166, 0.0506, 0.1307, 0.1219, 0.1557, 0.1323, 0.1147, 0.1179, 0.0781, 0.0855, 0.0924, 0.0847, 0.0754, 0.1009, 0.1274, 0.1323, 0.1232, 0.1502, 0.1879, 0.2357, 0.2837, 0.2504, 0.2845, 0.2788, 0.2181, 0.1827, 0.1658, 0.2037, 0.2054, 0.2289, 0.2289, 0.2508, 0.2703, 0.2753, 0.2571, 0.1997, 0.2224, 0.2223, 0.2071, 0.1279, 0.1797, 0.1443, 0.1008, 0.1514, 0.1725, 0.1861, 0.1673, 0.1435, 0.1553, 0.1553, 0.1685, 0.1009, 0.0833, 0.0821, 0.0954, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026303974903599138", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-24T14:31:29+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold and silver remain core holdings. The correction created a buying opportunity. The smart money used it.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Gold correction over; structural bull intact — core long gold/silver, bearish USD/DXY on de-dollarization; gold not Bitcoin as reserve asset play.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE GOLD CORRECTION IS OVER\n\nIf you sold during the January crash, you just watched a 75% recovery without you.\n\nA few weeks ago, gold plunged 9% in a single day. The worst since 2013.\n\nSilver crashed 31%. The worst since the Hunt Brothers collapse in 1980.\n\nThe trigger? Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair.\n\nMarkets interpreted it as hawkish. The leveraged longs panicked. Margin calls cascaded. $15 trillion in market cap evaporated in 48 hours.\n\nGold went from $5,595 to $4,400 in 3 days.\n\nAnd then something remarkable happened:\n\nUS-listed gold ETFs posted INFLOWS on January 30. The same day gold crashed 9%. Not a single day of net selling from institutional investors.\n\nBy February 4, gold was back above $5,000.\n\nToday it's trading at $5,168. Up 75% year-over-year.\n\nThe correction wasn't fundamental. It was mechanical.\n\nGoldman Sachs explained it perfectly: \"massive forced rebalancing in levered ETFs\" with $3.5 billion forced selling in SLV and $650 million in GLD.\n\nTranslation: algorithms liquidating, not investors capitulating.\n\nThe structural drivers never changed.\n\nCentral banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. They're on pace for 950 tonnes in 2026.\n\nChina has added gold for 15 consecutive months. Total holdings now exceed 2,300 tonnes.\n\nGlobal central banks net sold $48 billion in dollar reserves in January alone. The dollar's share of reserves just hit 58.2%, a new low since 1995.\n\nFor the first time since 1996, gold now represents a LARGER share of global central bank reserves than US Treasuries.\n\nRead that again.\n\nThe world's central banks trust a shiny metal more than American IOUs.\n\nThe ETF flows tell the same story:\n\nJanuary 2026 saw $19 billion flow into gold ETFs. The largest monthly inflow on record.\n\nGlobal gold ETF assets hit $669 billion. Holdings reached 4,025 tonnes, an all-time high.\n\nIndia's gold ETF inflows exceeded equity fund inflows for the first time in January. Indian investors put $2.65 billion into gold ETFs in a single month.\n\nAsia drove 51% of global gold demand. Chinese and Indian retail investors are buying every dip.\n\nAnd the dollar is telling you the same thing too:\n\nThe DXY has dropped 11% over the past 12 months. The largest decline since 2020.\n\nBRICS nations just announced plans to increase internal trade settled in local currencies from 35% to 50%.\n\nFederal debt exceeds $37 trillion. That's over 130% of GDP.\n\nDe-dollarization isn't just a theory anymore. \n\nThe bank targets for gold keep rising.\n\nJPMorgan: $6,300 by Q4 2026.\n\nDeutsche Bank: $6,000 \"achievable this year.\"\n\nGoldman Sachs: $5,400.\n\nUBS: $6,200 by mid-year.\n\nEven the bears admit $4,500 is the new floor.\n\nTechnical support held PERFECTLY.\n\nThe 50 EMA at $4,550 caught the selloff exactly where it should have. The late-2025 highs at $4,550 became support.\n\nClassic Fibonacci retracement. Textbook correction.\n\nGold recovered 97% of its losses in 3 weeks.\n\nThis is what happens in structural bull markets.\n\n1970s gold: rallied 2,300% with multiple 30%+ corrections along the way.\n\n2000s gold: rallied 650% with six corrections exceeding 15%.\n\n2020s gold: up over 150% from 2020 lows. This was the first major correction.\n\nBull markets don't die on corrections. They die on exhaustion.\n\nAnd there's NO exhaustion here. \n\nETF holdings are still below pandemic peaks. Central bank buying is accelerating. Institutional allocations remain under 1% versus the 5-10% historical norm.\n\nMy positioning remains unchanged:\n\nGold and silver remain core holdings.\n\nThe correction created a buying opportunity. The smart money used it.\n\n$5,000 is the new $2,000 in a post-pandemic regime.\n\nThe dollar's 80-year reign as the world's reserve currency is facing its first serious challenge. Central banks are responding by accumulating the only asset that doesn't require trust in a government.\n\nThat asset is gold.\n\nAnd not Bitcoin.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.014053672770482528, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.014053672770482528, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.021269698535856252, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.021269698535856252, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007216025765373724, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007216025765373724, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0025072627221415233, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0025072627221415233, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.010945569022679957, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010945569022679957, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.008438306300538434, "bench_c_p1d": 0.008438306300538434, "ret_p1w": -0.013632184114989565, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.013632184114989565, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.003419196464825691, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.003419196464825691, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010212987650163874, "bench_c_p1w": -0.010212987650163874, "ret_p1m": -0.12287979310726194, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.12287979310726194, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08107256760105597, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08107256760105597, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04180722550620597, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04180722550620597, "ret_p3m": -0.1280840688219279, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1280840688219279, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2158507207204129, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2158507207204129, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08776665189848498, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08776665189848498, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.12287979310726194, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08107256760105597, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08107256760105597, "price_path": [-0.1928, -0.1827, -0.1788, -0.1841, -0.1848, -0.1843, -0.1858, -0.1879, -0.1838, -0.1803, -0.1714, -0.1668, -0.1661, -0.1659, -0.1587, -0.1602, -0.1593, -0.1399, -0.1285, -0.1321, -0.1321, -0.1219, -0.1602, -0.1595, -0.165, -0.165, -0.1608, -0.1387, -0.1294, -0.1378, -0.133, -0.1267, -0.1104, -0.1116, -0.1025, -0.108, -0.1123, -0.1123, -0.0788, -0.0653, -0.0481, -0.035, -0.0209, 0.0031, 0.042, 0.0449, -0.0625, -0.1, -0.0428, -0.0435, -0.069, -0.0403, -0.016, -0.0257, -0.0147, -0.0489, -0.0253, -0.0253, -0.0556, -0.0344, -0.0317, -0.0126, 0.0141, 0.0, -0.0025, 0.006, 0.0193, 0.0324, -0.0136, -0.0059, -0.0179, -0.0023, -0.0044, 0.0068, 0.0034, -0.0163, -0.029, -0.0299, -0.0323, -0.0629, -0.1016, -0.129, -0.1487, -0.1485, -0.1229, -0.1559, -0.1262, -0.1265, -0.0934, -0.0775, -0.0952, -0.0952, -0.0989, -0.0902, -0.0844, -0.0773, -0.079, -0.0827, -0.0622, -0.072, -0.0728, -0.0604, -0.0685, -0.0949, -0.0829, -0.0918, -0.0871, -0.0942, -0.111, -0.1205, -0.1074, -0.1084, -0.1262, -0.1187, -0.092, -0.0905, -0.086, -0.0842, -0.0878, -0.0929, -0.0999, -0.1208, -0.1184, -0.133, -0.1205, -0.1214, -0.1281, -0.1281, -0.1277, -0.1393, -0.1303, -0.1211, -0.1335, -0.132, -0.1406, -0.1335, -0.1651, -0.163, -0.1766, -0.2108, -0.186, -0.1856, -0.1645, -0.1622, -0.1812, -0.1843, -0.1843, -0.1897, -0.205, -0.229, -0.2216, -0.2128, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026303974903599138", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-24T14:31:29+00:00", "symbol": "SLV", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold and silver remain core holdings. The correction created a buying opportunity.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Gold correction over; structural bull intact — core long gold/silver, bearish USD/DXY on de-dollarization; gold not Bitcoin as reserve asset play.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE GOLD CORRECTION IS OVER\n\nIf you sold during the January crash, you just watched a 75% recovery without you.\n\nA few weeks ago, gold plunged 9% in a single day. The worst since 2013.\n\nSilver crashed 31%. The worst since the Hunt Brothers collapse in 1980.\n\nThe trigger? Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair.\n\nMarkets interpreted it as hawkish. The leveraged longs panicked. Margin calls cascaded. $15 trillion in market cap evaporated in 48 hours.\n\nGold went from $5,595 to $4,400 in 3 days.\n\nAnd then something remarkable happened:\n\nUS-listed gold ETFs posted INFLOWS on January 30. The same day gold crashed 9%. Not a single day of net selling from institutional investors.\n\nBy February 4, gold was back above $5,000.\n\nToday it's trading at $5,168. Up 75% year-over-year.\n\nThe correction wasn't fundamental. It was mechanical.\n\nGoldman Sachs explained it perfectly: \"massive forced rebalancing in levered ETFs\" with $3.5 billion forced selling in SLV and $650 million in GLD.\n\nTranslation: algorithms liquidating, not investors capitulating.\n\nThe structural drivers never changed.\n\nCentral banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. They're on pace for 950 tonnes in 2026.\n\nChina has added gold for 15 consecutive months. Total holdings now exceed 2,300 tonnes.\n\nGlobal central banks net sold $48 billion in dollar reserves in January alone. The dollar's share of reserves just hit 58.2%, a new low since 1995.\n\nFor the first time since 1996, gold now represents a LARGER share of global central bank reserves than US Treasuries.\n\nRead that again.\n\nThe world's central banks trust a shiny metal more than American IOUs.\n\nThe ETF flows tell the same story:\n\nJanuary 2026 saw $19 billion flow into gold ETFs. The largest monthly inflow on record.\n\nGlobal gold ETF assets hit $669 billion. Holdings reached 4,025 tonnes, an all-time high.\n\nIndia's gold ETF inflows exceeded equity fund inflows for the first time in January. Indian investors put $2.65 billion into gold ETFs in a single month.\n\nAsia drove 51% of global gold demand. Chinese and Indian retail investors are buying every dip.\n\nAnd the dollar is telling you the same thing too:\n\nThe DXY has dropped 11% over the past 12 months. The largest decline since 2020.\n\nBRICS nations just announced plans to increase internal trade settled in local currencies from 35% to 50%.\n\nFederal debt exceeds $37 trillion. That's over 130% of GDP.\n\nDe-dollarization isn't just a theory anymore. \n\nThe bank targets for gold keep rising.\n\nJPMorgan: $6,300 by Q4 2026.\n\nDeutsche Bank: $6,000 \"achievable this year.\"\n\nGoldman Sachs: $5,400.\n\nUBS: $6,200 by mid-year.\n\nEven the bears admit $4,500 is the new floor.\n\nTechnical support held PERFECTLY.\n\nThe 50 EMA at $4,550 caught the selloff exactly where it should have. The late-2025 highs at $4,550 became support.\n\nClassic Fibonacci retracement. Textbook correction.\n\nGold recovered 97% of its losses in 3 weeks.\n\nThis is what happens in structural bull markets.\n\n1970s gold: rallied 2,300% with multiple 30%+ corrections along the way.\n\n2000s gold: rallied 650% with six corrections exceeding 15%.\n\n2020s gold: up over 150% from 2020 lows. This was the first major correction.\n\nBull markets don't die on corrections. They die on exhaustion.\n\nAnd there's NO exhaustion here. \n\nETF holdings are still below pandemic peaks. Central bank buying is accelerating. Institutional allocations remain under 1% versus the 5-10% historical norm.\n\nMy positioning remains unchanged:\n\nGold and silver remain core holdings.\n\nThe correction created a buying opportunity. The smart money used it.\n\n$5,000 is the new $2,000 in a post-pandemic regime.\n\nThe dollar's 80-year reign as the world's reserve currency is facing its first serious challenge. Central banks are responding by accumulating the only asset that doesn't require trust in a government.\n\nThat asset is gold.\n\nAnd not Bitcoin.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01884165186228426, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01884165186228426, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.026057677627657982, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.026057677627657982, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007216025765373724, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007216025765373724, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.012139593604506782, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.012139593604506782, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.003701287303968348, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.003701287303968348, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.008438306300538434, "bench_c_p1d": 0.008438306300538434, "ret_p1w": -0.05563987637834156, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05563987637834156, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.04542688872817768, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.04542688872817768, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010212987650163874, "bench_c_p1w": -0.010212987650163874, "ret_p1m": -0.17539203876365217, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.17539203876365217, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1335848132574462, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1335848132574462, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04180722550620597, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04180722550620597, "ret_p3m": -0.13555893996569668, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13555893996569668, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.22332559186418166, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.22332559186418166, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08776665189848498, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08776665189848498, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.17539203876365217, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1335848132574462, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1335848132574462, "price_path": [-0.388, -0.3524, -0.3359, -0.3281, -0.3289, -0.3455, -0.3304, -0.3335, -0.3024, -0.291, -0.2714, -0.2906, -0.2652, -0.27, -0.238, -0.2499, -0.2295, -0.21, -0.1801, -0.1753, -0.1753, -0.1007, -0.1653, -0.1277, -0.1854, -0.1854, -0.1686, -0.1265, -0.0679, -0.1027, -0.1185, -0.0847, -0.0234, -0.0061, 0.0693, 0.0536, 0.0245, 0.0245, 0.0798, 0.0617, 0.1018, 0.1749, 0.2436, 0.2846, 0.3354, 0.335, -0.046, -0.084, -0.0268, 0.0013, -0.1567, -0.1124, -0.0384, -0.0717, -0.0319, -0.1435, -0.1184, -0.1184, -0.1607, -0.1137, -0.102, -0.0311, 0.0188, 0.0, 0.0121, 0.0173, 0.0747, 0.0315, -0.0556, -0.0473, -0.0608, -0.0397, -0.0104, 0.0128, -0.0148, -0.0329, -0.0808, -0.0741, -0.0938, -0.1313, -0.1694, -0.2221, -0.21, -0.204, -0.1754, -0.2315, -0.1978, -0.1968, -0.1383, -0.1383, -0.1681, -0.1681, -0.1643, -0.1662, -0.1468, -0.1352, -0.1265, -0.1366, -0.089, -0.0916, -0.0991, -0.0689, -0.0876, -0.1339, -0.1101, -0.1353, -0.1301, -0.1359, -0.1629, -0.1801, -0.1571, -0.1364, -0.1662, -0.1665, -0.1132, -0.0946, -0.0768, -0.0137, -0.0067, 0.0034, -0.0451, -0.127, -0.1156, -0.154, -0.1309, -0.1218, -0.1356, -0.1356, -0.1184, -0.1464, -0.1356, -0.1359, -0.1443, -0.1402, -0.1627, -0.153, -0.2214, -0.2213, -0.2538, -0.2709, -0.2309, -0.225, -0.1974, -0.1984, -0.2336, -0.2475, -0.2475, -0.2551, -0.2953, -0.3452, -0.3379, -0.3263, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2018009728102674433", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-01T17:13:06+00:00", "symbol": "SLV", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You know what to do", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Implicitly bullish SLV: endorses the extreme short-sales-volume signal as a contrarian buy cue.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You know what to do", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "SLV ETF ALERT\n\nSLV Short Sales Volume just went to heaven. There is no other way to describe the volume of short selling activity on January 30, 2026 https://t.co/XrppsX3zfW", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041413582259699266, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.041413582259699266, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.046360214187648685, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.046360214187648685, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06239641759706527, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06239641759706527, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.07085180349823783, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07085180349823783, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "ret_p1w": 0.04969627764760198, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04969627764760198, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05179574181394686, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05179574181394686, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "ret_p1m": 0.030922111930923535, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.030922111930923535, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05260701618886343, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05260701618886343, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "bench_c_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "ret_p3m": -0.07979015163579095, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07979015163579095, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.11604601132374948, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.11604601132374948, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "bench_c_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.030922111930923535, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05260701618886343, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05260701618886343, "price_path": [-0.3974, -0.3988, -0.3937, -0.3679, -0.3588, -0.333, -0.3454, -0.3655, -0.3723, -0.3636, -0.3588, -0.368, -0.3747, -0.3563, -0.3557, -0.3319, -0.3319, -0.2931, -0.275, -0.2666, -0.2674, -0.2855, -0.2691, -0.2724, -0.2384, -0.226, -0.2046, -0.2256, -0.1978, -0.2031, -0.1681, -0.1811, -0.1589, -0.1376, -0.1049, -0.0997, -0.0997, -0.0182, -0.0888, -0.0478, -0.1107, -0.1107, -0.0924, -0.0464, 0.0175, -0.0204, -0.0377, -0.0008, 0.0661, 0.085, 0.1673, 0.1502, 0.1184, 0.1184, 0.1788, 0.159, 0.2028, 0.2826, 0.3575, 0.4024, 0.4578, 0.4573, 0.0414, 0.0, 0.0624, 0.093, -0.0794, -0.0311, 0.0497, 0.0134, 0.0569, -0.065, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0838, -0.0324, -0.0197, 0.0577, 0.1122, 0.0917, 0.1049, 0.1106, 0.1732, 0.126, 0.0309, 0.04, 0.0253, 0.0483, 0.0803, 0.1056, 0.0755, 0.0558, 0.0035, 0.0108, -0.0108, -0.0516, -0.0933, -0.1507, -0.1376, -0.131, -0.0998, -0.1611, -0.1242, -0.1231, -0.0594, -0.0594, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.0877, -0.0897, -0.0686, -0.0559, -0.0464, -0.0574, -0.0055, -0.0083, -0.0166, 0.0164, -0.004, -0.0545, -0.0286, -0.056, -0.0504, -0.0567, -0.0861, -0.1049, -0.0798, -0.0573, -0.0897, -0.0901, -0.0319, -0.0116, 0.0079, 0.0768, 0.0843, 0.0954, 0.0424, -0.0469, -0.0345, -0.0765, -0.0512, -0.0413, -0.0563, -0.0563, -0.0375, -0.0682, -0.0563, -0.0567, -0.0658, -0.0614, -0.086, -0.0754, -0.1501, -0.1499, -0.1854, -0.204, -0.1604, -0.1539, -0.1238, -0.1249, -0.1633, -0.1785, -0.1785, -0.1868, -0.2307, -0.2852, -0.2772, -0.2645, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2007498912689770562", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-03T17:06:52+00:00", "symbol": "energy stocks", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect energy stocks will provide decent returns", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish on energy stocks for decent returns going forward despite being out of fashion.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE default energy stocks ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@JohnSpelman17 @DivesTech @MichaelMOTTCM @WallStreetApes @wallstreetbets @MacrostrategyP I repeatedly highlighted precious metals last year. I would not chase them presently as I think you will get a better entry point. \nWhile presently out of fashion, I expect energy stocks will provide decent returns.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @DivesTech @MichaelMOTTCM @WallStreetApes @wallstreetbets @MacrostrategyP As always, where do you want to invest going forward", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JohnSpelman17", "ret_m1d": -0.026444775834059797, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.026444775834059797, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.019828633603329426, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.019828633603329426, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02665822439662635, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.02665822439662635, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03260538269599744, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03260538269599744, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "ret_p1w": -0.011729526361103693, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.011729526361103693, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.02254782986139392, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02254782986139392, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "ret_p1m": 0.10194065816550868, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10194065816550868, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09930879793514902, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09930879793514902, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "ret_p3m": 0.2718516522593011, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2718516522593011, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.31561790509811094, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.31561790509811094, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10194065816550868, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09930879793514902, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09930879793514902, "price_path": [-0.0593, -0.0721, -0.099, -0.0867, -0.0868, -0.0873, -0.0983, -0.0909, -0.0813, -0.0834, -0.0717, -0.0593, -0.0688, -0.0666, -0.0763, -0.0695, -0.075, -0.0682, -0.0681, -0.0781, -0.0757, -0.0667, -0.0533, -0.0447, -0.0322, -0.0458, -0.0433, -0.0271, -0.0448, -0.0372, -0.0497, -0.0605, -0.0546, -0.0572, -0.0631, -0.056, -0.056, -0.0437, -0.0345, -0.0469, -0.0291, -0.0249, -0.029, -0.0395, -0.0336, -0.0235, -0.0281, -0.0376, -0.0444, -0.0736, -0.0531, -0.0668, -0.0668, -0.0572, -0.051, -0.0537, -0.0537, -0.0574, -0.0484, -0.0412, -0.0465, -0.0465, -0.0264, 0.0, -0.0267, -0.0375, -0.0073, -0.0047, -0.0117, 0.0023, 0.025, 0.0154, 0.0171, 0.0171, 0.0151, 0.0397, 0.0431, 0.0491, 0.0497, 0.0593, 0.0674, 0.0772, 0.0887, 0.0674, 0.1019, 0.1267, 0.1135, 0.1356, 0.144, 0.1427, 0.1725, 0.1512, 0.1591, 0.1591, 0.1463, 0.1683, 0.1768, 0.1704, 0.1762, 0.1751, 0.1702, 0.174, 0.1926, 0.2165, 0.2054, 0.1983, 0.2045, 0.2064, 0.2011, 0.1858, 0.2152, 0.2265, 0.2305, 0.2348, 0.2478, 0.2461, 0.2659, 0.2649, 0.28, 0.306, 0.3002, 0.3206, 0.3429, 0.33, 0.315, 0.2658, 0.2719, 0.2719, 0.2811, 0.2914, 0.2461, 0.2306, 0.2223, 0.2259, 0.201, 0.1969, 0.2145, 0.1811, 0.1821, 0.1993, 0.2137, 0.2231, 0.2208, 0.2186, 0.2388, 0.2671, 0.2804, 0.2633, 0.2749, 0.2761, 0.2236, 0.201, 0.1956, 0.2272, 0.2358, 0.2371, 0.2465, 0.2759, 0.3004, 0.3156, 0.2837, 0.2693, 0.277, 0.277, 0.2418, 0.2233, 0.2225, 0.2083, 0.23, 0.2442, 0.2603, 0.2611, 0.2379, 0.2521, 0.2319, 0.2504, 0.2261, 0.2354, 0.1924, 0.1883, 0.1735, 0.1542, 0.1542, 0.1688, 0.1775, 0.1582, 0.1695, 0.1641, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2015807887478562983", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-26T15:23:46+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "If gold holds and the ratio compresses further, silver will go beyond $150. It's math.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strong structural bull case for silver: China export controls, COMEX inventory drain, 5-year supply deficit, backwardation, and inelastic industrial demand point to major repricing above $150.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "For decades, the global silver market operated on a simple assumption:\n\nNobody would actually demand delivery of the metal they owned on paper.\n\nThat assumption just collapsed.\n\nIn the first seven days of January, 33.45 million ounces of silver were physically withdrawn from COMEX for delivery.\n\nThat's 26% of COMEX's registered inventory gone in a single week.\n\nTraders who had March futures contracts were paying premiums to ROLL BACKWARDS to January, demanding immediate delivery weeks early.\n\nThey weren't willing to wait. They wanted metal in hand.\n\nHere's the China problem you have to understand if you're buying silver:\n\nOn January 1, 2026, Beijing implemented export controls that fundamentally changed global silver supply.\n\nThis wasn't a minor tweak. They reclassified silver as a strategic material, putting it in the same category as rare earths.\n\nTo export silver from China now, companies need government licenses. Only 44 firms qualified.\n\nThey must have annual refining capacity of 80+ tonnes and credit lines exceeding $30 million.\n\nWhy does this matter? China controls 60-70% of global refined silver exports.\n\nThe world's dominant refining hub just effectively ring-fenced its supply for domestic use.\n\nThe physical-paper divergence:\n\nHere's where it gets uncomfortable...\n\nIn Shanghai, physical silver trades at 12-13% premiums over Western paper prices.\n\nIn Dubai, premiums hit 40%.\n\nIn Japan, secondary market premiums reached 60%.\n\nMeanwhile, the paper-to-physical ratio on COMEX sits at 356:1.\n\nFor every one ounce of deliverable silver, there are 356 ounces of paper claims.\n\nThe system worked because nobody called the bluff. But now they're calling it.\n\nThe supply deficit reality:\n\nThe silver market has been in structural deficit for five consecutive years.\n\nCumulative shortfalls from 2021-2025 total roughly 820 million ounces. Nearly an entire year of global mine production.\n\nMine production peaked in 2016. Roughly 71% of mined silver comes as a byproduct from gold, copper, lead, and zinc mines.\n\nSo even if silver prices double, miners can't easily ramp production. Their operations are driven by base-metal economics, not silver prices.\n\nThe industrial demand trap:\n\nUnlike gold, silver isn't primarily a monetary metal. Industrial demand now represents 59% of total consumption.\n\nSolar panels. EVs. AI data centers. Semiconductors.\n\nThis demand is price-inelastic.\n\nFactories don't stop production because silver got expensive... They pay whatever it takes to keep lines running.\n\nSo what does this mean?\n\nSilver is now in backwardation. Spot prices above futures prices.\n\nThat's rare. And it's significant.\n\nBackwardation tells you buyers want metal NOW, not paper promises for later.\n\nThe last time silver showed this kind of sustained backwardation was before the 2011 spike to $49.\n\nThe gold-silver ratio has compressed from over 100:1 in recent years to around 50:1 now.\n\nHistorically, that ratio has traded as low as 15-20:1 in extreme moves.\n\nIf gold holds and the ratio compresses further, silver will go beyond $150. \n\nIt's math.\n\nMy take:\n\nSilver is no longer just an industrial metal with monetary characteristics.\n\nIt's becoming a triple-identity asset: industrial input, monetary metal, and strategic material.\n\nWhen China weaponizes export controls, when Western inventories drain, when paper claims vastly exceed physical supply, and when industrial demand is non-negotiable, you get exactly what we're seeing...\n\nA structural repricing.\n\nPullbacks will be sharp. The CME has already raised margin requirements.\n\nBut the underlying dynamics aren't speculation. They're geology, geopolitics, and supply-demand math.\n\nPhysical silver in your possession has no counterparty risk.\n\nPaper claims on silver that may or may not exist? That's a different bet entirely.\n\nIf you don't hold it, you don't own it.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \n\nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.055216523062743494, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.055216523062743494, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05016394944071734, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05016394944071734, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.033048608104816024, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.033048608104816024, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02906444272634512, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02906444272634512, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "ret_p1w": -0.2633719225237051, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.2633719225237051, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.26724058430827824, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.26724058430827824, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "ret_p1m": -0.19585108017148678, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.19585108017148678, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.18808461497473916, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.18808461497473916, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "ret_p3m": -0.30465731340411895, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.30465731340411895, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.330143128251858, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.330143128251858, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.19585108017148678, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.18808461497473916, "alpha_c_stated": -0.18808461497473916, "price_path": [-0.5604, -0.5491, -0.5525, -0.555, -0.5654, -0.5561, -0.5571, -0.5534, -0.5344, -0.5277, -0.5086, -0.5178, -0.5326, -0.5376, -0.5312, -0.5277, -0.5345, -0.5394, -0.5258, -0.5254, -0.5078, -0.5078, -0.4793, -0.4659, -0.4597, -0.4603, -0.4737, -0.4616, -0.464, -0.439, -0.4298, -0.4141, -0.4295, -0.4091, -0.413, -0.3872, -0.3968, -0.3804, -0.3648, -0.3407, -0.3368, -0.3368, -0.2768, -0.3288, -0.2986, -0.3449, -0.3449, -0.3314, -0.2975, -0.2505, -0.2784, -0.2911, -0.264, -0.2147, -0.2007, -0.1401, -0.1527, -0.1761, -0.1761, -0.1317, -0.1462, -0.114, -0.0552, 0.0, 0.033, 0.0738, 0.0735, -0.2329, -0.2634, -0.2174, -0.1948, -0.3218, -0.2863, -0.2268, -0.2535, -0.2215, -0.3113, -0.291, -0.291, -0.3251, -0.2873, -0.2779, -0.2209, -0.1807, -0.1959, -0.1861, -0.1819, -0.1358, -0.1705, -0.2406, -0.2339, -0.2448, -0.2278, -0.2042, -0.1856, -0.2077, -0.2223, -0.2608, -0.2554, -0.2713, -0.3014, -0.3321, -0.3744, -0.3648, -0.3599, -0.3369, -0.382, -0.3549, -0.3541, -0.3071, -0.3071, -0.331, -0.331, -0.3279, -0.3295, -0.3139, -0.3046, -0.2975, -0.3057, -0.2674, -0.2695, -0.2756, -0.2513, -0.2663, -0.3035, -0.2844, -0.3047, -0.3005, -0.3052, -0.3268, -0.3407, -0.3221, -0.3056, -0.3295, -0.3298, -0.2869, -0.2719, -0.2576, -0.2068, -0.2012, -0.1931, -0.2322, -0.2979, -0.2888, -0.3197, -0.3011, -0.2938, -0.3049, -0.3049, -0.291, -0.3136, -0.3049, -0.3052, -0.3119, -0.3086, -0.3267, -0.3189, -0.3739, -0.3738, -0.3999, -0.4137, -0.3815, -0.3768, -0.3546, -0.3554, -0.3837, -0.3949, -0.3949, -0.401, -0.4333, -0.4735, -0.4676, -0.4582, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2049216318482645270", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-28T19:56:57+00:00", "symbol": "ORCL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI... If OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish AI infrastructure complex: OpenAI CFO's financing concerns threaten $1.4T in contracts, putting ORCL, NVDA, AMD, CRWV, AVGO, MRVL and S&P500 AI valuations at risk.", "resolved_tickers": ["ORCL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills.\n\nLet me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect:\n\nSarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is.\n\nRead that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year.\n\nThe person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear.\n\nSam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report \"ridiculous\" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did.\n\nSarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent.\n\nBut the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating:\n\nOpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025.  \n\nChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. \n\nThey missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. \n\nThey are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving.\n\nNow hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend:\n\nRoughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. \n\nAnd Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029.\n\nThe CFO is not \"worried\" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math.\n\nHere's the part the market hasn't yet processed:\n\nOpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. \n\n- Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. \n- Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. \n- AMD's \"$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue\" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal.\n- CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. \n- Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand.\n\nIf OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses \"AI infrastructure demand\" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut.\n\nThis is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem.\n\nYou can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk.\n\nPre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out:\n\nRambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. \n\nThe chip complex understands that \"OpenAI's CFO is worried\" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on.\n\nThis is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: \n\nOutside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth.\n\nThe Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for.\n\nBelow is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04217883656794941, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04217883656794941, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03728905064031829, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03728905064031829, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004889785927631118, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004889785927631118, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.01283444683444035, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01283444683444035, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012679937509454398, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.012679937509454398, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00015450932498595193, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00015450932498595193, "ret_p1w": 0.11683537361551743, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.11683537361551743, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.09986161715763808, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.09986161715763808, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016973756457879352, "bench_c_p1w": 0.016973756457879352, "ret_p1m": 0.15063870202839102, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.15063870202839102, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.09616268639827252, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.09616268639827252, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0544760156301185, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0544760156301185, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.15063870202839102, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.09616268639827252, "alpha_c_stated": -0.09616268639827252, "price_path": [0.0148, -0.0118, -0.0389, -0.0713, -0.1193, -0.1805, -0.1424, -0.0597, -0.0399, -0.0563, -0.0604, -0.0384, -0.0384, -0.0755, -0.0623, -0.06, -0.1108, -0.1515, -0.1225, -0.112, -0.0975, -0.1269, -0.1038, -0.1053, -0.0851, -0.0706, -0.0815, -0.0899, -0.1029, -0.0205, -0.0443, -0.0686, -0.0635, -0.0712, -0.0819, -0.0662, -0.1012, -0.0733, -0.1168, -0.1232, -0.1425, -0.1614, -0.1666, -0.1167, -0.128, -0.1211, -0.1211, -0.1261, -0.1403, -0.1374, -0.1693, -0.1679, -0.0623, -0.0178, 0.0232, 0.0746, 0.0548, 0.07, 0.0916, 0.1298, 0.0622, 0.0441, 0.0422, 0.0, -0.0128, -0.0275, 0.0354, 0.0863, 0.1168, 0.1691, 0.1725, 0.1807, 0.168, 0.1258, 0.1434, 0.1787, 0.1626, 0.1244, 0.0934, 0.1338, 0.1435, 0.1574, 0.1574, 0.1633, 0.1506, 0.2274, 0.3604, 0.4952, 0.4737, 0.3879, 0.4241, 0.2875, 0.2763, 0.2401, 0.2127, 0.1093, 0.1095, 0.1608, 0.1348, 0.1059, 0.1104, 0.1104, 0.0549, -0.0048, -0.0508, -0.0813, -0.105, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2049216318482645270", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-04-28T19:56:57+00:00", "symbol": "NVDA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments... every one of those numbers gets re-cut", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish AI infrastructure complex: OpenAI CFO's financing concerns threaten $1.4T in contracts, putting ORCL, NVDA, AMD, CRWV, AVGO, MRVL and S&P500 AI valuations at risk.", "resolved_tickers": ["NVDA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills.\n\nLet me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect:\n\nSarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is.\n\nRead that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year.\n\nThe person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear.\n\nSam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report \"ridiculous\" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did.\n\nSarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent.\n\nBut the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating:\n\nOpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025.  \n\nChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. \n\nThey missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. \n\nThey are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving.\n\nNow hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend:\n\nRoughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. \n\nAnd Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029.\n\nThe CFO is not \"worried\" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math.\n\nHere's the part the market hasn't yet processed:\n\nOpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. \n\n- Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. \n- Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. \n- AMD's \"$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue\" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal.\n- CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. \n- Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand.\n\nIf OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses \"AI infrastructure demand\" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut.\n\nThis is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem.\n\nYou can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk.\n\nPre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out:\n\nRambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. \n\nThe chip complex understands that \"OpenAI's CFO is worried\" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on.\n\nThis is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: \n\nOutside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth.\n\nThe Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for.\n\nBelow is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.016137326765298, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.016137326765298, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01124754083766688, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.014501338107876238, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004889785927631118, "bench_c_m1d": 0.030638664873174237, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.018389075111261644, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.018389075111261644, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01823456578627569, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03542862085094334, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00015450932498595193, "bench_c_p1d": 0.017039545739681694, "ret_p1w": -0.0782005448455595, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0782005448455595, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09517430130343885, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.14228721151346868, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016973756457879352, "bench_c_p1w": 0.06408666666790919, "ret_p1m": -0.0026739198079180904, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0026739198079180904, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05714993543803659, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.21498639381926832, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0544760156301185, "bench_c_p1m": 0.21231247401135023, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0026739198079180904, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05714993543803659, "alpha_c_stated": 0.21498639381926832, "price_path": [-0.097, -0.1034, -0.1293, -0.1541, -0.1829, -0.1937, -0.1303, -0.1086, -0.1156, -0.1085, -0.1231, -0.1425, -0.1425, -0.1323, -0.1182, -0.1186, -0.1096, -0.1015, -0.0954, -0.0827, -0.1327, -0.1688, -0.144, -0.1554, -0.1414, -0.14, -0.1659, -0.1432, -0.1333, -0.1273, -0.1409, -0.1544, -0.1405, -0.1465, -0.1537, -0.1624, -0.1898, -0.1761, -0.1781, -0.1618, -0.1967, -0.2141, -0.2252, -0.1819, -0.1755, -0.1678, -0.1678, -0.1667, -0.1645, -0.1458, -0.1373, -0.1151, -0.1119, -0.0782, -0.0671, -0.0695, -0.0539, -0.0521, -0.0623, -0.0501, -0.0635, -0.023, 0.0161, 0.0, -0.0184, -0.0638, -0.0691, -0.0689, -0.0782, -0.0251, -0.0078, 0.0095, 0.0294, 0.0357, 0.0594, 0.1059, 0.057, 0.0429, 0.0349, 0.0483, 0.0297, 0.0101, 0.0101, 0.0079, -0.0027, 0.0051, -0.0095, 0.0525, 0.0453, 0.0074, 0.0269, -0.0367, -0.0201, -0.0222, -0.0587, -0.0378, -0.0363, -0.0022, -0.0259, -0.0388, -0.0105, -0.0105, -0.0201, -0.0605, -0.0654, -0.0807, -0.0958, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2049216318482645270", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-04-28T19:56:57+00:00", "symbol": "AMD", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "AMD's \"$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue\" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal... every one of those numbers gets re-cut", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish AI infrastructure complex: OpenAI CFO's financing concerns threaten $1.4T in contracts, putting ORCL, NVDA, AMD, CRWV, AVGO, MRVL and S&P500 AI valuations at risk.", "resolved_tickers": ["AMD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills.\n\nLet me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect:\n\nSarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is.\n\nRead that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year.\n\nThe person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear.\n\nSam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report \"ridiculous\" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did.\n\nSarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent.\n\nBut the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating:\n\nOpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025.  \n\nChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. \n\nThey missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. \n\nThey are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving.\n\nNow hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend:\n\nRoughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. \n\nAnd Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029.\n\nThe CFO is not \"worried\" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math.\n\nHere's the part the market hasn't yet processed:\n\nOpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. \n\n- Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. \n- Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. \n- AMD's \"$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue\" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal.\n- CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. \n- Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand.\n\nIf OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses \"AI infrastructure demand\" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut.\n\nThis is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem.\n\nYou can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk.\n\nPre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out:\n\nRambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. \n\nThe chip complex understands that \"OpenAI's CFO is worried\" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on.\n\nThis is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: \n\nOutside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth.\n\nThe Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for.\n\nBelow is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03533310766886233, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03533310766886233, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03044332174123121, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.004694442795688092, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004889785927631118, "bench_c_m1d": 0.030638664873174237, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04300607736136852, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04300607736136852, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.043160586686354474, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.025966531621686828, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00015450932498595193, "bench_c_p1d": 0.017039545739681694, "ret_p1w": 0.09916159511733835, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.09916159511733835, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.082187838659459, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.035074928449429166, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016973756457879352, "bench_c_p1w": 0.06408666666790919, "ret_p1m": 0.5331828274058641, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5331828274058641, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.4787068117757456, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.32087035339451386, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0544760156301185, "bench_c_p1m": 0.21231247401135023, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.5331828274058641, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.4787068117757456, "alpha_c_stated": -0.32087035339451386, "price_path": [-0.2198, -0.2676, -0.238, -0.2509, -0.3806, -0.4044, -0.3551, -0.3317, -0.3392, -0.3392, -0.3628, -0.3586, -0.3586, -0.3717, -0.3808, -0.3708, -0.3807, -0.3917, -0.3384, -0.3476, -0.3698, -0.3806, -0.3855, -0.4092, -0.3748, -0.3829, -0.4046, -0.3729, -0.3712, -0.3663, -0.3882, -0.4017, -0.3918, -0.3926, -0.3829, -0.3649, -0.3771, -0.3729, -0.3646, -0.3185, -0.3695, -0.3751, -0.3935, -0.3706, -0.3496, -0.3271, -0.3271, -0.3188, -0.3146, -0.2828, -0.2678, -0.2419, -0.2363, -0.2108, -0.2014, -0.1391, -0.1387, -0.1493, -0.1198, -0.0611, -0.0553, 0.0761, 0.0353, 0.0, 0.043, 0.0968, 0.1155, 0.0567, 0.0992, 0.3038, 0.2638, 0.4083, 0.4195, 0.387, 0.3784, 0.3914, 0.3122, 0.3025, 0.2811, 0.3848, 0.391, 0.4465, 0.4465, 0.559, 0.5332, 0.603, 0.5968, 0.5783, 0.6136, 0.6785, 0.6188, 0.443, 0.5171, 0.4712, 0.3997, 0.5112, 0.5828, 0.6932, 0.5695, 0.5856, 0.6626, 0.6626, 0.7067, 0.6084, 0.6081, 0.6478, 0.6137, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2049216318482645270", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-04-28T19:56:57+00:00", "symbol": "CRWV", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish AI infrastructure complex: OpenAI CFO's financing concerns threaten $1.4T in contracts, putting ORCL, NVDA, AMD, CRWV, AVGO, MRVL and S&P500 AI valuations at risk.", "resolved_tickers": ["CRWV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills.\n\nLet me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect:\n\nSarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is.\n\nRead that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year.\n\nThe person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear.\n\nSam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report \"ridiculous\" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did.\n\nSarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent.\n\nBut the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating:\n\nOpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025.  \n\nChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. \n\nThey missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. \n\nThey are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving.\n\nNow hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend:\n\nRoughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. \n\nAnd Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029.\n\nThe CFO is not \"worried\" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math.\n\nHere's the part the market hasn't yet processed:\n\nOpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. \n\n- Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. \n- Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. \n- AMD's \"$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue\" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal.\n- CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. \n- Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand.\n\nIf OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses \"AI infrastructure demand\" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut.\n\nThis is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem.\n\nYou can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk.\n\nPre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out:\n\nRambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. \n\nThe chip complex understands that \"OpenAI's CFO is worried\" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on.\n\nThis is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: \n\nOutside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth.\n\nThe Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for.\n\nBelow is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.06187812806625326, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.06187812806625326, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05698834213862214, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05698834213862214, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004889785927631118, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004889785927631118, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.08206200855001167, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.08206200855001167, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.08221651787499762, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08221651787499762, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00015450932498595193, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00015450932498595193, "ret_p1w": 0.21188288514164366, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.21188288514164366, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1949091286837643, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.1949091286837643, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016973756457879352, "bench_c_p1w": 0.016973756457879352, "ret_p1m": -0.011939753158394462, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.011939753158394462, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06641576878851296, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06641576878851296, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0544760156301185, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0544760156301185, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.011939753158394462, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06641576878851296, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06641576878851296, "price_path": [-0.0569, -0.1169, -0.1572, -0.1466, -0.2186, -0.2926, -0.1476, -0.0828, -0.0987, -0.0984, -0.0931, -0.0899, -0.0899, -0.1377, -0.0955, -0.0795, -0.1543, -0.1392, -0.059, -0.0713, -0.0749, -0.2461, -0.2604, -0.3009, -0.2467, -0.291, -0.3083, -0.2949, -0.2901, -0.2233, -0.2432, -0.2314, -0.1864, -0.2218, -0.2152, -0.2357, -0.228, -0.2233, -0.2133, -0.1701, -0.2377, -0.2911, -0.3447, -0.2659, -0.2567, -0.2207, -0.2207, -0.233, -0.1923, -0.1576, -0.1282, -0.0335, 0.0449, 0.1106, 0.1247, 0.1329, 0.1073, 0.1128, 0.0913, 0.1612, 0.1127, 0.0437, 0.0619, 0.0, 0.0821, 0.0575, 0.1277, 0.1886, 0.2119, 0.3075, 0.2209, 0.0817, 0.0869, 0.021, 0.0548, 0.0823, 0.0168, -0.0167, -0.0542, -0.0403, 0.0194, -0.0004, -0.0004, 0.0034, -0.0119, 0.0126, 0.0379, 0.1828, 0.1302, 0.0512, 0.0237, -0.0487, -0.0299, -0.0671, -0.094, -0.0928, -0.0472, 0.0112, 0.109, 0.0917, 0.1177, 0.1177, 0.0546, 0.0018, -0.0441, -0.0642, -0.0848, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2049216318482645270", "ticker_idx": 4, "ts": "2026-04-28T19:56:57+00:00", "symbol": "AVGO", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand... every one of those numbers gets re-cut", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish AI infrastructure complex: OpenAI CFO's financing concerns threaten $1.4T in contracts, putting ORCL, NVDA, AMD, CRWV, AVGO, MRVL and S&P500 AI valuations at risk.", "resolved_tickers": ["AVGO"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills.\n\nLet me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect:\n\nSarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is.\n\nRead that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year.\n\nThe person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear.\n\nSam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report \"ridiculous\" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did.\n\nSarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent.\n\nBut the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating:\n\nOpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025.  \n\nChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. \n\nThey missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. \n\nThey are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving.\n\nNow hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend:\n\nRoughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. \n\nAnd Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029.\n\nThe CFO is not \"worried\" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math.\n\nHere's the part the market hasn't yet processed:\n\nOpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. \n\n- Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. \n- Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. \n- AMD's \"$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue\" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal.\n- CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. \n- Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand.\n\nIf OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses \"AI infrastructure demand\" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut.\n\nThis is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem.\n\nYou can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk.\n\nPre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out:\n\nRambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. \n\nThe chip complex understands that \"OpenAI's CFO is worried\" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on.\n\nThis is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: \n\nOutside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth.\n\nThe Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for.\n\nBelow is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.045944606673870014, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.045944606673870014, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.041054820746238896, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.015305941800695777, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004889785927631118, "bench_c_m1d": 0.030638664873174237, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.014056038540390725, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.014056038540390725, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.014210547865376677, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.002983507199290969, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00015450932498595193, "bench_c_p1d": 0.017039545739681694, "ret_p1w": 0.06885429976440505, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06885429976440505, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.051880543306525695, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.00476763309649586, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016973756457879352, "bench_c_p1w": 0.06408666666790919, "ret_p1m": 0.0550983928813602, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0550983928813602, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0006223772512417014, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.15721408112999002, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0544760156301185, "bench_c_p1m": 0.21231247401135023, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0550983928813602, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0006223772512417014, "alpha_c_stated": 0.15721408112999002, "price_path": [-0.1746, -0.1731, -0.1736, -0.2005, -0.2312, -0.225, -0.1691, -0.1416, -0.1503, -0.1445, -0.1735, -0.1884, -0.1884, -0.17, -0.1676, -0.1664, -0.1698, -0.1755, -0.1876, -0.1706, -0.1971, -0.2025, -0.2043, -0.2167, -0.2075, -0.1695, -0.1752, -0.1371, -0.145, -0.1475, -0.1615, -0.1959, -0.1891, -0.1981, -0.2115, -0.2017, -0.225, -0.1934, -0.2039, -0.2026, -0.2261, -0.248, -0.2662, -0.2259, -0.2159, -0.2133, -0.2133, -0.2136, -0.1647, -0.1231, -0.1123, -0.0707, -0.0502, -0.0476, -0.0078, -0.0034, 0.0168, -0.0005, 0.0059, 0.0571, 0.0503, 0.0573, 0.0459, 0.0, 0.0141, 0.044, 0.0536, 0.0417, 0.0689, 0.0641, 0.0318, 0.0755, 0.0715, 0.0487, 0.0424, 0.0999, 0.0634, 0.0522, 0.0281, 0.0448, 0.0369, 0.0358, 0.0358, 0.0555, 0.0551, 0.0669, 0.1174, 0.1504, 0.2044, 0.1986, 0.0477, -0.0353, -0.0081, -0.0192, -0.0694, -0.0357, -0.0444, -0.0147, -0.0578, -0.0173, 0.0288, 0.0288, -0.0177, -0.0477, -0.0429, -0.0508, -0.0856, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2013234629608694089", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-19T12:58:34+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Smart money is repositioning: Trimming US large caps. Adding gold and silver.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Repositioning: trim US large caps, add gold and silver amid institutional unpredictability from US-Europe tariff credibility war.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE GREENLAND TARIFF THREAT ISN'T ABOUT GREENLAND\n\nIt's about what happens 10 months before midterms when domestic policy hits a wall.\n\nAnd Europe just turned it into a credibility war.\n\nStarting February 1, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland face 10% tariffs.\n\nRising to 25% by June unless they agree to sell Greenland.\n\nBut here's what changed overnight:\n\nThe EU is activating its \"trade bazooka.\"\n\n$108 billion in counter-tariffs. Plus restrictions on US services, procurement access, regulatory approvals, and IP protections.\n\nThis hits Big Tech, financial services, and the digital economy where US dominance actually lives.\n\nThe Greenland mineral story is complete nonsense:\n\nGreenland holds 1.5 million tonnes of rare earth reserves.\n\nThe US already has 1.9 million tonnes.\n\nWe have MORE.\n\nEven if we controlled Greenland's deposits, we'd still send ore to China - which controls 90% of global refining.\n\nZero rare earth mines operate there. Infrastructure would cost $100-180 billion over 10-15 years.\n\nSo what's this actually about?\n\nMidterms are 10 months away.\n\nWhen domestic policy gets boxed in by Congress, foreign policy becomes the only arena where executives can still move unilaterally.\n\nYou can sequence. You can initiate. You can force others to react.\n\nCongress can't vote down a Greenland push. Courts can't enjoin tariff threats in real-time.\n\nThe executive branch acts first. Everyone else responds later.\n\nTreasury Secretary Bessent said it yesterday: \"The national emergency is avoiding the national emergency.\"\n\nThat's not trade logic. That's maintaining initiative when domestic wins become impossible.\n\nBut here's what changed:\n\nEurope isn't negotiating. They're retaliating.\n\nThis isn't Liberation Day 2.0 where everyone eventually cuts deals.\n\nDenmark can't sell Greenland. 85% of Greenlanders oppose joining the US.\n\nThere's no negotiation path. So this becomes a credibility contest.\n\nAnd once tariffs become about credibility instead of economics, you can't model it.\n\nSmoot-Hawley wasn't about optimal tariff rates. It was retaliation spiraling into doom loop.\n\nWorld trade fell 66% from 1929-1934 not because tariffs made economic sense, but because backing down carried political cost.\n\nEurope just signaled they're not backing down.\n\nThe ACI wasn't designed for US allies. It was designed for China-level coercion.\n\nUsing it means Europe views this as existential NOT transactional.\n\n€1.68 trillion in bilateral trade is now hostage to whether Denmark sells territory it doesn't want to sell.\n\nAnd the Supreme Court still hasn't ruled on whether Trump can use IEEPA for tariffs.\n\nTwo opportunities to rule came and went last week with no decision.\n\nIf the Court strikes down IEEPA authority, Trump has backup options - but they're more limited in scope and duration.\n\nThat creates maximum uncertainty right as Europe is preparing maximum retaliation.\n\nMeanwhile, gold hit $4,600 and silver hit $90.\n\nNot because of Greenland minerals. Because markets are pricing institutional unpredictability.\n\nSmart money is repositioning:\n\nTrimming US large caps. Adding gold and silver. Building positions that don't require transatlantic trade stability.\n\nAgain: NOT because Greenland matters...\n\nBut because when foreign policy becomes a domestic political release valve, and trade partners respond with credibility wars instead of negotiations, you're in uncharted territory.\n\nMarkets price economics. They don't price political necessity colliding with geopolitical retaliation.\n\nAnd that's exactly where we are.\n\nWhat's your take?\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03645678942634312, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03645678942634312, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05723659988359542, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05723659988359542, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.014568979615140476, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.014568979615140476, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0030278703334791768, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0030278703334791768, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "ret_p1w": 0.08890056524139855, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08890056524139855, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06246828628570755, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06246828628570755, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "bench_c_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "ret_p1m": 0.04814396830968448, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.04814396830968448, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03528942236448551, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03528942236448551, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "ret_p3m": 0.01989795181219889, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.01989795181219889, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.031017731965427453, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.031017731965427453, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.04814396830968448, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03528942236448551, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03528942236448551, "price_path": [-0.1337, -0.1366, -0.1606, -0.1666, -0.1698, -0.1535, -0.1581, -0.1566, -0.1713, -0.1617, -0.1628, -0.1576, -0.1346, -0.1312, -0.1172, -0.1243, -0.1401, -0.15, -0.1438, -0.1424, -0.1427, -0.144, -0.1304, -0.1307, -0.1238, -0.1238, -0.1129, -0.1086, -0.1143, -0.1152, -0.1146, -0.1162, -0.1185, -0.114, -0.1102, -0.1006, -0.0956, -0.0948, -0.0945, -0.0868, -0.0884, -0.0874, -0.0663, -0.054, -0.0579, -0.0579, -0.0469, -0.0884, -0.0877, -0.0936, -0.0936, -0.0891, -0.0651, -0.055, -0.064, -0.0589, -0.0521, -0.0343, -0.0357, -0.0258, -0.0318, -0.0365, -0.0365, 0.0, 0.0146, 0.0333, 0.0475, 0.0628, 0.0889, 0.1311, 0.1342, 0.0177, -0.0231, 0.039, 0.0383, 0.0106, 0.0417, 0.0682, 0.0576, 0.0695, 0.0324, 0.0581, 0.0581, 0.0251, 0.0481, 0.0511, 0.0718, 0.1007, 0.0855, 0.0828, 0.0921, 0.1064, 0.1207, 0.0707, 0.0791, 0.0661, 0.083, 0.0807, 0.0929, 0.0892, 0.0678, 0.054, 0.0531, 0.0504, 0.0172, -0.0247, -0.0545, -0.0759, -0.0757, -0.0479, -0.0837, -0.0515, -0.0518, -0.0159, 0.0013, -0.0179, -0.0179, -0.0219, -0.0124, -0.0062, 0.0016, -0.0002, -0.0043, 0.018, 0.0074, 0.0065, 0.0199, 0.0111, -0.0175, -0.0045, -0.0142, -0.0091, -0.0168, -0.035, -0.0453, -0.031, -0.0321, -0.0515, -0.0434, -0.0143, -0.0127, -0.0079, -0.0059, -0.0098, -0.0154, -0.0229, -0.0456, -0.043, -0.0588, -0.0454, -0.0463, -0.0535, -0.0535, -0.0531, -0.0657, -0.0559, -0.046, -0.0594, -0.0578, -0.0672, -0.0594, -0.0937, -0.0914, -0.1062, -0.1433, -0.1164, -0.1159, -0.093, -0.0906, -0.1112, -0.1146, -0.1146, -0.1204, -0.137, -0.1631, -0.155, -0.1455, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2013234629608694089", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-19T12:58:34+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Smart money is repositioning: Trimming US large caps. Adding gold and silver.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Repositioning: trim US large caps, add gold and silver amid institutional unpredictability from US-Europe tariff credibility war.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE GREENLAND TARIFF THREAT ISN'T ABOUT GREENLAND\n\nIt's about what happens 10 months before midterms when domestic policy hits a wall.\n\nAnd Europe just turned it into a credibility war.\n\nStarting February 1, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland face 10% tariffs.\n\nRising to 25% by June unless they agree to sell Greenland.\n\nBut here's what changed overnight:\n\nThe EU is activating its \"trade bazooka.\"\n\n$108 billion in counter-tariffs. Plus restrictions on US services, procurement access, regulatory approvals, and IP protections.\n\nThis hits Big Tech, financial services, and the digital economy where US dominance actually lives.\n\nThe Greenland mineral story is complete nonsense:\n\nGreenland holds 1.5 million tonnes of rare earth reserves.\n\nThe US already has 1.9 million tonnes.\n\nWe have MORE.\n\nEven if we controlled Greenland's deposits, we'd still send ore to China - which controls 90% of global refining.\n\nZero rare earth mines operate there. Infrastructure would cost $100-180 billion over 10-15 years.\n\nSo what's this actually about?\n\nMidterms are 10 months away.\n\nWhen domestic policy gets boxed in by Congress, foreign policy becomes the only arena where executives can still move unilaterally.\n\nYou can sequence. You can initiate. You can force others to react.\n\nCongress can't vote down a Greenland push. Courts can't enjoin tariff threats in real-time.\n\nThe executive branch acts first. Everyone else responds later.\n\nTreasury Secretary Bessent said it yesterday: \"The national emergency is avoiding the national emergency.\"\n\nThat's not trade logic. That's maintaining initiative when domestic wins become impossible.\n\nBut here's what changed:\n\nEurope isn't negotiating. They're retaliating.\n\nThis isn't Liberation Day 2.0 where everyone eventually cuts deals.\n\nDenmark can't sell Greenland. 85% of Greenlanders oppose joining the US.\n\nThere's no negotiation path. So this becomes a credibility contest.\n\nAnd once tariffs become about credibility instead of economics, you can't model it.\n\nSmoot-Hawley wasn't about optimal tariff rates. It was retaliation spiraling into doom loop.\n\nWorld trade fell 66% from 1929-1934 not because tariffs made economic sense, but because backing down carried political cost.\n\nEurope just signaled they're not backing down.\n\nThe ACI wasn't designed for US allies. It was designed for China-level coercion.\n\nUsing it means Europe views this as existential NOT transactional.\n\n€1.68 trillion in bilateral trade is now hostage to whether Denmark sells territory it doesn't want to sell.\n\nAnd the Supreme Court still hasn't ruled on whether Trump can use IEEPA for tariffs.\n\nTwo opportunities to rule came and went last week with no decision.\n\nIf the Court strikes down IEEPA authority, Trump has backup options - but they're more limited in scope and duration.\n\nThat creates maximum uncertainty right as Europe is preparing maximum retaliation.\n\nMeanwhile, gold hit $4,600 and silver hit $90.\n\nNot because of Greenland minerals. Because markets are pricing institutional unpredictability.\n\nSmart money is repositioning:\n\nTrimming US large caps. Adding gold and silver. Building positions that don't require transatlantic trade stability.\n\nAgain: NOT because Greenland matters...\n\nBut because when foreign policy becomes a domestic political release valve, and trade partners respond with credibility wars instead of negotiations, you're in uncharted territory.\n\nMarkets price economics. They don't price political necessity colliding with geopolitical retaliation.\n\nAnd that's exactly where we are.\n\nWhat's your take?\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.05117698533573001, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.05117698533573001, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07195679579298231, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07195679579298231, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.01674669534368367, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.01674669534368367, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.02828780462534497, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.02828780462534497, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "ret_p1w": 0.18971773116332935, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.18971773116332935, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.16328545220763835, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.16328545220763835, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "bench_c_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "ret_p1m": -0.1791779267024164, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1791779267024164, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.19203247264761536, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.19203247264761536, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "ret_p3m": -0.13772107062054972, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13772107062054972, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.18863675439817607, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.18863675439817607, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1791779267024164, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.19203247264761536, "alpha_c_stated": -0.19203247264761536, "price_path": [-0.4826, -0.4848, -0.5035, -0.4999, -0.4937, -0.4807, -0.4846, -0.4875, -0.4995, -0.4888, -0.49, -0.4857, -0.4638, -0.456, -0.4341, -0.4447, -0.4618, -0.4675, -0.4601, -0.456, -0.4639, -0.4695, -0.4539, -0.4534, -0.4332, -0.4332, -0.4003, -0.3849, -0.3778, -0.3785, -0.3938, -0.3799, -0.3827, -0.3539, -0.3434, -0.3252, -0.343, -0.3195, -0.3239, -0.2943, -0.3053, -0.2865, -0.2684, -0.2407, -0.2362, -0.2362, -0.1671, -0.227, -0.1922, -0.2456, -0.2456, -0.23, -0.191, -0.1368, -0.169, -0.1836, -0.1524, -0.0956, -0.0795, -0.0097, -0.0242, -0.0512, -0.0512, 0.0, -0.0167, 0.0204, 0.0881, 0.1517, 0.1897, 0.2367, 0.2363, -0.1165, -0.1517, -0.0987, -0.0727, -0.219, -0.178, -0.1095, -0.1403, -0.1034, -0.2068, -0.1835, -0.1835, -0.2227, -0.1792, -0.1684, -0.1027, -0.0564, -0.0739, -0.0627, -0.0579, -0.0047, -0.0447, -0.1254, -0.1177, -0.1302, -0.1107, -0.0835, -0.0621, -0.0876, -0.1043, -0.1487, -0.1425, -0.1608, -0.1955, -0.2308, -0.2795, -0.2684, -0.2628, -0.2363, -0.2883, -0.2571, -0.2561, -0.202, -0.202, -0.2295, -0.2295, -0.226, -0.2278, -0.2099, -0.1991, -0.191, -0.2004, -0.1563, -0.1587, -0.1657, -0.1377, -0.1551, -0.1979, -0.1759, -0.1992, -0.1944, -0.1998, -0.2247, -0.2407, -0.2193, -0.2003, -0.2278, -0.2281, -0.1787, -0.1615, -0.145, -0.0865, -0.0801, -0.0707, -0.1157, -0.1915, -0.1809, -0.2165, -0.1951, -0.1867, -0.1994, -0.1994, -0.1835, -0.2095, -0.1994, -0.1998, -0.2075, -0.2038, -0.2246, -0.2156, -0.279, -0.2788, -0.3089, -0.3247, -0.2877, -0.2822, -0.2567, -0.2576, -0.2902, -0.3031, -0.3031, -0.3101, -0.3473, -0.3936, -0.3868, -0.376, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2015102094949134742", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-24T16:39:12+00:00", "symbol": "copper", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Copper at $13,000 isn't the top. It's the market finally pricing in physical reality.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bullish copper: catastrophic supply disruptions, structural deficits, and inelastic AI/data-center demand make $13,000 the floor, not the top.", "resolved_tickers": ["CPER"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "CPER is the primary copper ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Copper surged 43% in 2025 - its best year since 2009.\n\nIt already broke $13,000 per ton in early January 2026.\n\nAnd the fundamentals suggest this is just the beginning...\n\nThe supply situation is catastrophic.\n\nIn September 2025, a mudslide at Indonesia's Grasberg mine - the world's second-largest copper producer - killed seven workers and buried critical infrastructure under 800,000 tons of wet debris.\n\nGoldman Sachs estimates 525,000 metric tons of lost supply. That's roughly 2.6% of global annual production wiped out.\n\nFull operations won't return until 2027.\n\nBut Grasberg wasn't alone:\n\nChile's El Teniente - a tunnel collapse in July killed six workers. Production guidance slashed.\n\nDRC's Kamoa-Kakula - seismic flooding in May forced shutdown. Stockpiles depleted by Q1 2026.\n\nChile's Quebrada Blanca - guidance cut by 20% due to tailings dam issues.\n\nBefore Grasberg even happened, analysts estimated 497,000 tons already lost to disruptions through August 2025.\n\nJ.P. Morgan now forecasts a 330,000-ton refined copper shortage in 2026.\n\nBenchmark Mineral Intelligence raised its deficit projection from 72,000 tons to 400,000 tons.\n\nThese aren't marginal misses. These are structural deficits.\n\nNow here's where it gets interesting:\n\nTrump's 50% Section 232 tariff on copper products created a two-tier global market.\n\nCOMEX inventories in the US have surged past 500,000 short tons - a seven-year high - as traders front-ran potential tariffs on refined copper.\n\nMeanwhile, LME inventories in London have plummeted 80% this year alone.\n\nAvailable stockpiles now cover less than a single day of global demand.\n\nThe LME went into deep backwardation - spot prices trading $345 premium over 3 month futures. That's the widest spread since the 2021 squeeze.\n\nThe US is hoarding copper while the rest of the world goes short.\n\n This is supply chain fragmentation in real-time.\n\nAnd NOT normal market dynamics.\n\nBut here's what truly changes the game:\n\nData centers are now consuming copper at unprecedented rates.\n\nS&P Global's new study shows copper demand will rise 50%+ by 2040 - from 28 million to 42 million metric tons.\n\nAI data centers use 27-33 tons of copper per megawatt of installed capacity.\n\nA single 100-megawatt hyperscale facility consumes thousands of tons before you even account for grid connections.\n\nThe IEA projects data center electricity demand to more than double by 2030.\n\nThis demand is price-inelastic. Microsoft isn't canceling data centers because copper hit $13,000.\n\nHere's the math problem nobody's solving:\n\nGlobal copper production peaks in 2030 at 33 million metric tons.\n\nBy 2040, demand hits 42 million.\n\nThat's a 10 million ton supply shortfall.\n\nBuilding a new copper mine now takes 12-18 years from discovery to production. Up from 6 years in 2000.\n\nEven at $13,000 per ton, the breakeven for next-generation copper mines exceeds current prices.\n\nJ.P. Morgan targets $12,500 by Q2 2026. UBS says $13,000 by year-end.\n\nGoldman sees $15,000 by 2035.\n\nThe AI buildout isn't stopping.\n\nThe grid expansion isn't stopping.\n\nThe mine disruptions aren't stopping.\n\nAnd new supply takes 15 years to develop.\n\nCopper at $13,000 isn't the top.\n\nIt's the market finally pricing in physical reality.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.000547357888958655, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.000547357888958655, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0045052157330675024, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0045052157330675024, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.00109471577791731, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.00109471577791731, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0028894496005535952, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0028894496005535952, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "ret_p1w": -0.018062392744266464, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.018062392744266464, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.02193105452883959, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02193105452883959, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "ret_p1m": -0.006568190269661711, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.006568190269661711, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0011982749270859072, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0011982749270859072, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "ret_p3m": 0.011494202474604753, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.011494202474604753, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.013991612373134288, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.013991612373134288, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1188, -0.136, -0.1371, -0.144, -0.1645, -0.1549, -0.1563, -0.1606, -0.1349, -0.1423, -0.1379, -0.1445, -0.1429, -0.1541, -0.1571, -0.1481, -0.1579, -0.1497, -0.1486, -0.1467, -0.1286, -0.1286, -0.1166, -0.1163, -0.1204, -0.0961, -0.1013, -0.0873, -0.0903, -0.1065, -0.095, -0.0802, -0.1015, -0.0928, -0.0999, -0.0906, -0.0898, -0.0805, -0.0769, -0.0654, -0.064, -0.064, -0.02, -0.0646, -0.0353, -0.0432, -0.0432, -0.0427, 0.0063, 0.02, -0.0172, -0.0235, -0.0107, 0.0093, 0.0096, 0.0263, 0.0063, -0.0164, -0.0164, -0.0227, -0.0235, -0.0241, -0.0005, 0.0, 0.0011, 0.0066, 0.0594, -0.003, -0.0181, 0.0257, -0.0068, -0.0356, -0.0082, 0.0063, -0.0057, 0.0071, -0.0282, -0.0268, -0.0268, -0.0438, -0.0263, -0.0274, -0.0101, -0.0235, -0.0066, 0.0066, 0.0052, 0.0093, -0.0041, -0.0257, -0.0156, -0.0263, -0.0249, -0.0175, -0.0126, -0.0115, -0.0265, -0.0471, -0.0233, -0.0364, -0.0791, -0.0772, -0.1147, -0.0824, -0.0873, -0.0753, -0.0878, -0.0846, -0.0807, -0.0577, -0.0602, -0.0594, -0.0594, -0.0613, -0.0673, -0.0353, -0.0364, -0.0183, 0.0068, 0.0197, 0.0197, 0.0109, 0.0205, 0.0129, 0.0005, 0.029, 0.0115, 0.0109, 0.0107, -0.0082, -0.0156, -0.0003, -0.0085, -0.0263, -0.0057, 0.0274, 0.0222, 0.0473, 0.078, 0.1067, 0.1021, 0.0952, 0.0438, 0.0509, 0.0298, 0.0556, 0.0558, 0.0651, 0.0651, 0.0681, 0.0531, 0.069, 0.0635, 0.0936, 0.1111, 0.0788, 0.0873, 0.0421, 0.055, 0.0564, 0.0323, 0.0657, 0.0824, 0.0851, 0.0824, 0.0575, 0.0635, 0.0635, 0.0621, 0.0213, -0.0063, 0.012, 0.0216, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2028157346283950372", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-01T17:16:07+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN remains an outstanding short. I am short from $7.50. Fair value is $1.50.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN from $7.50 with fair value target of $1.50; 14x revenues and 5x book seen as overvalued.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@VolaarRide @Stocktwits @open_army_japan @iamjohnbaiano @CapitanSteveo @APompliano @ericjackson @nejatian @philrosenn @rabois @natbrunell @andrewrsorkin $OPEN is  still on 14x revenues and 5x book. Fair value is $1.50.\nI am short from $7.50\n$OPEN remains an outstanding short.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @Stocktwits @open_army_japan @iamjohnbaiano @CapitanSteveo @APompliano @ericjackson @nejatian @philrosenn @rabois @natbrunell @andrewrsorkin You’re valuing $OPEN like it’s a static flipper.\nInstitutions are pricing operating leverage ,financing plus  platform scale.\nDifferent model. \nDifferent math.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "VolaarRide", "ret_m1d": 0.07326730130385206, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07326730130385206, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07383550125516714, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07508874688951028, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0005681999513150737, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018214455856582212, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.015841662875575313, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.015841662875575313, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.007027411963089647, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010832643412216458, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008814250912485666, "bench_c_p1d": -0.005009019463358855, "ret_p1w": 0.005940540958044194, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.005940540958044194, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0177561677618846, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02734301172031428, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011815626803840407, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021402470762270087, "ret_p1m": -0.07326739572704821, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07326739572704821, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.023347686599652584, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.009160802438029969, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04991970912739563, "bench_c_p1m": -0.06410659328901824, "ret_p3m": 0.003960392113094846, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.003960392113094846, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09843306525577278, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.013992710558485166, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10239345736886762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.017953102671580012, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07326739572704821, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.023347686599652584, "alpha_c_stated": 0.009160802438029969, "price_path": [0.3743, 0.501, 0.4158, 0.396, 0.4673, 0.3861, 0.396, 0.299, 0.2812, 0.3327, 0.2119, 0.2436, 0.2594, 0.2713, 0.2416, 0.2436, 0.2436, 0.1901, 0.1545, 0.1564, 0.1545, 0.1545, 0.202, 0.2515, 0.3723, 0.2119, 0.2733, 0.4436, 0.3901, 0.3406, 0.3149, 0.2475, 0.3208, 0.3208, 0.2653, 0.2832, 0.2713, 0.1901, 0.1624, 0.1505, 0.1406, 0.105, 0.0198, -0.0455, 0.0158, -0.0099, -0.0693, -0.0337, -0.0218, -0.0713, -0.0574, -0.1327, -0.1198, -0.1198, -0.1426, -0.0832, -0.0792, -0.0099, -0.0535, 0.0119, -0.0139, 0.0713, 0.0733, 0.0, -0.0158, -0.0337, 0.0257, -0.0099, 0.0059, -0.0079, 0.0436, -0.0416, -0.0198, 0.0257, 0.101, 0.0455, 0.0178, -0.0277, 0.0317, 0.0257, 0.0099, -0.0297, -0.0495, -0.1228, -0.0733, -0.095, -0.0614, -0.0614, -0.0871, -0.099, -0.0812, -0.1465, -0.1446, -0.1366, -0.1069, -0.0455, 0.0436, 0.0475, 0.0594, 0.0792, 0.0752, 0.0337, 0.0911, 0.0673, 0.0851, 0.105, 0.0653, 0.0772, 0.0158, 0.0356, 0.0812, 0.0535, -0.0079, -0.0396, -0.0673, -0.0931, -0.1149, -0.1327, -0.1525, -0.1485, -0.1287, -0.095, -0.103, -0.103, -0.1129, -0.0594, 0.004, -0.002, 0.0515, 0.0713, -0.0356, -0.0198, -0.1248, -0.1465, -0.1406, -0.1129, -0.1149, -0.1208, -0.0871, -0.0594, -0.1188, -0.1149, -0.1149, -0.1525, -0.1683, -0.1525, -0.1485, -0.1347, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2008999906753818787", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-07T20:31:17+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Do you know that $OPEN expects to lose money again in 2026? Did you know that any turnaround will take years but that the stock is up 13x from the lows of last summer? Do you know that $OPEN is presently valued at 6x book value? Do you know that $OPEN is valued at 20x EV/sales?", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: asset-heavy low-margin house flipper losing money every year since 2014, cumulative $4B losses, expects more losses in 2026, yet trading at 20x EV/sales and 6x book — deeply overvalued.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Opendoor Army,\n\nIt was only a few months ago that the momentum was powerful and the FOMO was palpable.\n \nIt was a glorious time. “Number go up” they said. $82 was inevitable and then onward to $500. What could possibly go wrong?\n\nWell, your general has deserted you.\n\nHe deceived you.\nHe committed analytical malpractice.\nHe sold you a bill of goods. \nQuite candidly, he bagged you.\n\nNow you are on your own. \nDo you really know what you own?\n\nDo you own $OPEN because of careful study or FOMO?\n\nDo you know that that $OPEN remains an asset heavy, low margin, house flipper?\n\nDo you know that house flipping is a fiercely competitive industry where profits are scarce because of information asymmetry?\n\nDo you know that $OPEN has lost money every single year since its founding in 2014?  \nEVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.\n\nDo you know that cumulative losses to date are approaching $4B?\n\nDo you know that cofounders \n@rabois and @ericwu01 (who have just returned) were responsible for 90% of those losses? \n\nDo you know that @nejatian ,\nwhile undoubtedly a smart guy, \nknows little about real estate.\n\nDo you know that most tech bro\nhave struggled or failed in real estate\nas tech is vastly different from tech?\n\nDo you know that $OPEN trailing 12 month revenues (or what they call gross profits) are only $378mm but that the enterprise value is $7.5B?\n\nDo you know that $OPEN expects to lose money again in 2026? \n\nDid you know that any turnaround will take years but that the stock is up 13x from the lows of last summer?\n\nDo you know that $OPEN is presently valued at 6x book value? (1.5x book would be generous if profitable)\n\nDo you know that $OPEN is valued at 20x EV/sales?\n\nDo you know that the leading real estate broker $COMP is valued at .9x \nEV/sales?\n\nDo you know that very few fundamentally oriented institutions or hedge funds own $OPEN ? \nThe only large holders are quant shops and trading firms. \n\nYour attention to this matter is greatly appreciated.\n\nPS - Please sign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nThe focus will be on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. Making money will be the objective. \n\nI will be phasing out my posts on X.\n\nhttps://t.co/0z4XWvrTTT…", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "When you strip out the story and look at the numbers, Opendoor’s valuation raises hard questions. @gnoble79 walks through the math.\n\n#Opendoor #Valuation #Investing #StockMarket https://t.co/msViSXf7zU", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.13235293430165562, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.13235293430165562, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12911909803291355, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.11840174695383077, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003233836268742074, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013951187347824856, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05065358636869011, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05065358636869011, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.05075511368296337, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04317979804717553, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00010152731427326422, "bench_c_p1d": 0.007473788321514574, "ret_p1w": 0.08496731873370122, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08496731873370122, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0838362813176381, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05382638929281036, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0011310374160631298, "bench_c_p1w": 0.031140929440890863, "ret_p1m": -0.23202616059595293, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.23202616059595293, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.21468225216807357, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2591810502963142, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.017343908427879362, "bench_c_p1m": 0.027154889700361284, "ret_p3m": -0.24673199024197923, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.24673199024197923, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2048942835669365, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2940832585826262, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04183770667504272, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04735126834064696, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.23202616059595293, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.21468225216807357, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2591810502963142, "price_path": [0.2369, 0.1879, 0.2484, 0.2059, 0.1618, 0.1699, 0.2042, 0.1373, 0.1144, 0.1487, 0.3023, 0.3333, 0.3023, 0.25, 0.1993, 0.2696, 0.2402, 0.1307, 0.1814, 0.0719, 0.0719, 0.3023, 0.3856, 0.531, 0.3987, 0.3268, 0.281, 0.2288, 0.0931, 0.0065, 0.1029, 0.2565, 0.2647, 0.2712, 0.2712, 0.2582, 0.1667, 0.1422, 0.134, 0.2386, 0.1683, 0.152, 0.2108, 0.1438, 0.152, 0.0719, 0.0572, 0.0997, 0.0, 0.0261, 0.0392, 0.049, 0.0245, 0.0261, 0.0261, -0.018, -0.0474, -0.0458, -0.0474, -0.0474, -0.0082, 0.0327, 0.1324, 0.0, 0.0507, 0.1912, 0.1471, 0.1062, 0.085, 0.0294, 0.0899, 0.0899, 0.0441, 0.0588, 0.049, -0.018, -0.0408, -0.0507, -0.0588, -0.0882, -0.1585, -0.2124, -0.1618, -0.183, -0.232, -0.2026, -0.1928, -0.2337, -0.2222, -0.2843, -0.2737, -0.2737, -0.2925, -0.2435, -0.2402, -0.183, -0.219, -0.165, -0.1863, -0.116, -0.1144, -0.1748, -0.1879, -0.2026, -0.1536, -0.183, -0.1699, -0.1814, -0.1389, -0.2092, -0.1912, -0.1536, -0.0915, -0.1373, -0.1601, -0.1977, -0.1487, -0.1536, -0.1667, -0.1993, -0.2157, -0.2761, -0.2353, -0.2533, -0.2255, -0.2255, -0.2467, -0.2565, -0.2418, -0.2958, -0.2941, -0.2876, -0.2631, -0.2124, -0.1389, -0.1356, -0.1258, -0.1095, -0.1127, -0.1471, -0.0997, -0.1193, -0.1046, -0.0882, -0.1209, -0.1111, -0.1618, -0.1454, -0.1078, -0.1307, -0.1814, -0.2075, -0.2304, -0.2516, -0.2696, -0.2843, -0.3007, -0.2974, -0.281, -0.2533, -0.2598, -0.2598, -0.268, -0.2239, -0.1716, -0.1765, -0.1324, -0.116, -0.2042, -0.1912, -0.2778, -0.2958, -0.2908, -0.268, -0.2696, -0.2745, -0.2467, -0.2239, -0.2729, -0.2696, -0.2696, -0.3007, -0.3137, -0.3007, -0.2974, -0.2859, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2020899701151687154", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-09T16:36:49+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Bitcoin failed its most important test. Gold is telling the truth. Bitcoin is telling a story.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish BTC (failed safe-haven test, trades like leveraged tech); bullish gold ($5,020, up 60%, held by central banks).", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Jim Cramer is a FRAUD.\n\nThis guy really just went on CNBC and said the government is buying Bitcoin at $60,000.\n\nLet me tell you why his narrative (and Bitcoin) is COMPLETE NONSENSE:\n\nFriday, Bitcoin crashes to $60,000. Down 52% from its October high. Over $1.2 trillion in value evaporated. Panic everywhere.\n\nAnd right on cue, Cramer goes on CNBC and says: \"I heard at $60,000 the President is gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve. You better cover.\"\n\nNo source. No evidence. No documentation. Just \"I heard.\"\n\nThis is the same Jim Cramer who told you Bear Stearns was \"FINE\" five days before it lost 90% of its value.\n\nThe same Jim Cramer who called Silicon Valley Bank \"compelling\" weeks before it became the second-largest bank failure in American history.\n\nThe same Jim Cramer whose stock picks were so consistently wrong that Wall Street created an actual ETF to bet against him. Filed with the SEC and everything.\n\nA Wharton study found his portfolio returned 4% annually from 2000 to 2017. The S&P returned 7%. You'd have done better flipping coins.\n\nNow let's look at the facts he conveniently left out:\n\nTreasury Secretary Bessent testified on February 5th that the federal government has NO legal authority to buy Bitcoin with public funds. None. \n\nThe March 2025 executive order says the reserve can ONLY hold Bitcoin from criminal seizures. No taxpayer purchases authorized.\n\nBlockchain firm Arkham confirms government wallets haven't moved in over a month. 328,000 BTC sitting there. Unchanged.\n\nZero on-chain evidence. Zero official confirmation. Zero legal authority.\n\nSo why does a TV personality with the worst track record in financial media go on national television and tell you to \"cover\" at the exact moment of maximum panic?\n\nWhen someone with a megaphone tells you to buy during a crash with no evidence, you don't ask IF there's an agenda. You ask WHOSE.\n\nMeanwhile, here's what's actually happening in the real world:\n\nBitcoin is down 52% from its high. Gold just hit $5,020 an ounce - up 60% over the same period. \n\nChina's central bank has bought gold for 15 consecutive months. Saylor's Strategy is sitting on $6.5 billion in unrealized losses.\n\nBitcoin was supposed to be \"digital gold.\" The ultimate safe haven.\n\nInstead it's trading like a leveraged tech stock in a risk-off environment. Because that's what it always was.\n\nThe \"digital gold\" narrative didn't survive contact with actual crisis.\n\nReal gold did.\n\nCramer is giving you a story to keep you from asking why Bitcoin failed its most important test.\n\nPeter Lynch taught me something I've never forgotten:\n\nWhen someone tells you to buy during a panic, ask what they own. If they can't show you receipts, they're showing you the exit.\n\nGold is telling the truth. Bitcoin is telling a story.\n\nI know which one I'm holding.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.006198011021162131, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.006198011021162131, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010996600251844013, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.010996600251844013, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.018921927121284043, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.018921927121284043, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.016284869350584597, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.016284869350584597, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "ret_p1w": -0.018220347480797594, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.018220347480797594, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0006398444485878896, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0006398444485878896, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "bench_c_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "ret_p1m": -0.002764649388443563, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.002764649388443563, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.021401335997036086, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.021401335997036086, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "ret_p3m": 0.1410311003558593, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1410311003558593, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.08392612009754008, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08392612009754008, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.002764649388443563, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.021401335997036086, "alpha_c_stated": -0.021401335997036086, "price_path": [0.4498, 0.4218, 0.3462, 0.3134, 0.3256, 0.3044, 0.2355, 0.2135, 0.2588, 0.2456, 0.2909, 0.3018, 0.2966, 0.231, 0.3028, 0.3338, 0.314, 0.2748, 0.2926, 0.3219, 0.3123, 0.3193, 0.2874, 0.2324, 0.2528, 0.2285, 0.2188, 0.2565, 0.262, 0.2466, 0.2494, 0.2441, 0.245, 0.2427, 0.2611, 0.248, 0.2654, 0.2827, 0.3389, 0.3367, 0.3022, 0.2981, 0.2908, 0.3005, 0.3594, 0.3823, 0.3627, 0.3623, 0.3199, 0.2594, 0.2746, 0.2758, 0.2764, 0.2588, 0.2707, 0.2719, 0.2059, 0.1998, 0.1222, 0.0786, 0.0413, -0.1058, 0.0062, 0.0, -0.0189, -0.0446, -0.0556, -0.018, -0.0182, -0.0375, -0.0527, -0.0451, -0.0302, -0.0785, -0.0861, -0.0308, -0.038, -0.0605, -0.0192, -0.0261, 0.0369, 0.0103, -0.0283, -0.0245, -0.0028, 0.0012, 0.0053, 0.0121, 0.0676, 0.0542, 0.016, -0.003, 0.0057, 0.0113, 0.0057, 0.017, -0.019, -0.0539, -0.0489, -0.0269, -0.0291, -0.0461, -0.0455, -0.018, 0.026, 0.0143, 0.0235, 0.0408, 0.0622, 0.0579, 0.0668, 0.0718, 0.0999, 0.082, 0.0889, 0.1153, 0.1162, 0.1046, 0.1033, 0.0888, 0.0807, 0.0882, 0.1149, 0.1384, 0.1541, 0.1612, 0.141, 0.1436, 0.1655, 0.1477, 0.1306, 0.1559, 0.1276, 0.0975, 0.0946, 0.1046, 0.1058, 0.0765, 0.1021, 0.0814, 0.0602, 0.0487, 0.0464, 0.0171, -0.0487, -0.0871, -0.0901, -0.1312, -0.1003, -0.1209, -0.1237, -0.0935, -0.0938, -0.0546, -0.0645, -0.0813, -0.103, -0.0938, -0.088, -0.1063, -0.1301, -0.1483, -0.1441, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2020899701151687154", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-09T16:36:49+00:00", "symbol": "Gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold just hit $5,020 an ounce - up 60% over the same period. I know which one I'm holding.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish BTC (failed safe-haven test, trades like leveraged tech); bullish gold ($5,020, up 60%, held by central banks).", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Jim Cramer is a FRAUD.\n\nThis guy really just went on CNBC and said the government is buying Bitcoin at $60,000.\n\nLet me tell you why his narrative (and Bitcoin) is COMPLETE NONSENSE:\n\nFriday, Bitcoin crashes to $60,000. Down 52% from its October high. Over $1.2 trillion in value evaporated. Panic everywhere.\n\nAnd right on cue, Cramer goes on CNBC and says: \"I heard at $60,000 the President is gonna fill the Bitcoin Reserve. You better cover.\"\n\nNo source. No evidence. No documentation. Just \"I heard.\"\n\nThis is the same Jim Cramer who told you Bear Stearns was \"FINE\" five days before it lost 90% of its value.\n\nThe same Jim Cramer who called Silicon Valley Bank \"compelling\" weeks before it became the second-largest bank failure in American history.\n\nThe same Jim Cramer whose stock picks were so consistently wrong that Wall Street created an actual ETF to bet against him. Filed with the SEC and everything.\n\nA Wharton study found his portfolio returned 4% annually from 2000 to 2017. The S&P returned 7%. You'd have done better flipping coins.\n\nNow let's look at the facts he conveniently left out:\n\nTreasury Secretary Bessent testified on February 5th that the federal government has NO legal authority to buy Bitcoin with public funds. None. \n\nThe March 2025 executive order says the reserve can ONLY hold Bitcoin from criminal seizures. No taxpayer purchases authorized.\n\nBlockchain firm Arkham confirms government wallets haven't moved in over a month. 328,000 BTC sitting there. Unchanged.\n\nZero on-chain evidence. Zero official confirmation. Zero legal authority.\n\nSo why does a TV personality with the worst track record in financial media go on national television and tell you to \"cover\" at the exact moment of maximum panic?\n\nWhen someone with a megaphone tells you to buy during a crash with no evidence, you don't ask IF there's an agenda. You ask WHOSE.\n\nMeanwhile, here's what's actually happening in the real world:\n\nBitcoin is down 52% from its high. Gold just hit $5,020 an ounce - up 60% over the same period. \n\nChina's central bank has bought gold for 15 consecutive months. Saylor's Strategy is sitting on $6.5 billion in unrealized losses.\n\nBitcoin was supposed to be \"digital gold.\" The ultimate safe haven.\n\nInstead it's trading like a leveraged tech stock in a risk-off environment. Because that's what it always was.\n\nThe \"digital gold\" narrative didn't survive contact with actual crisis.\n\nReal gold did.\n\nCramer is giving you a story to keep you from asking why Bitcoin failed its most important test.\n\nPeter Lynch taught me something I've never forgotten:\n\nWhen someone tells you to buy during a panic, ask what they own. If they can't show you receipts, they're showing you the exit.\n\nGold is telling the truth. Bitcoin is telling a story.\n\nI know which one I'm holding.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.024773584897030076, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.024773584897030076, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.019974995666348194, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.019974995666348194, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.009913720520981939, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.009913720520981939, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.007276662750282492, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007276662750282492, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "ret_p1w": -0.009442656089835855, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.009442656089835855, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.00813784694237385, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.00813784694237385, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "bench_c_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "ret_p1m": 0.02318905980466468, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02318905980466468, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.04735504519014433, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04735504519014433, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "ret_p3m": -0.07569108236282884, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07569108236282884, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.13279606262114807, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.13279606262114807, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02318905980466468, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.04735504519014433, "alpha_c_stated": 0.04735504519014433, "price_path": [-0.1735, -0.1802, -0.195, -0.2042, -0.1984, -0.1971, -0.1974, -0.1986, -0.1859, -0.1862, -0.1797, -0.1797, -0.1695, -0.1655, -0.1708, -0.1716, -0.1711, -0.1726, -0.1747, -0.1705, -0.167, -0.158, -0.1533, -0.1525, -0.1523, -0.145, -0.1466, -0.1456, -0.1259, -0.1143, -0.118, -0.118, -0.1077, -0.1465, -0.1459, -0.1514, -0.1514, -0.1472, -0.1248, -0.1153, -0.1238, -0.1189, -0.1125, -0.0959, -0.0972, -0.088, -0.0936, -0.0979, -0.0979, -0.0638, -0.0502, -0.0326, -0.0193, -0.005, 0.0194, 0.0589, 0.0618, -0.0473, -0.0854, -0.0273, -0.028, -0.0539, -0.0248, 0.0, -0.0099, 0.0013, -0.0335, -0.0094, -0.0094, -0.0403, -0.0187, -0.016, 0.0034, 0.0305, 0.0162, 0.0137, 0.0224, 0.0358, 0.0492, 0.0024, 0.0102, -0.0019, 0.0139, 0.0118, 0.0232, 0.0197, -0.0003, -0.0133, -0.0141, -0.0166, -0.0477, -0.087, -0.1149, -0.1349, -0.1347, -0.1086, -0.1422, -0.112, -0.1123, -0.0787, -0.0625, -0.0806, -0.0806, -0.0843, -0.0754, -0.0696, -0.0624, -0.064, -0.0678, -0.047, -0.0569, -0.0577, -0.0452, -0.0534, -0.0802, -0.068, -0.0771, -0.0723, -0.0795, -0.0966, -0.1062, -0.0929, -0.0939, -0.112, -0.1044, -0.0772, -0.0757, -0.0712, -0.0693, -0.073, -0.0782, -0.0853, -0.1065, -0.1041, -0.1189, -0.1063, -0.1071, -0.1139, -0.1139, -0.1135, -0.1253, -0.1162, -0.1069, -0.1194, -0.1179, -0.1267, -0.1194, -0.1516, -0.1494, -0.1633, -0.198, -0.1728, -0.1723, -0.1509, -0.1486, -0.1679, -0.1711, -0.1711, -0.1765, -0.1921, -0.2165, -0.2089, -0.2, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2047719906552988068", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-24T16:50:45+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$54 if you're generous. $25 if you're not. The stock is $387. The difference is literally $1.2 TRILLION. That is what the market is currently paying for Elon Musk's promises.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Detailed sum-of-parts valuation puts TSLA fair value at $54 (generous) to $25; stock at $387 implies $1.2T in unwarranted premium — strongly bearish.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I just sat down with @GordonJohnson19 and we did something that apparently nobody on Wall Street wants to do anymore:\n\nWe valued Tesla like an actual BUSINESS.\n\nNot a narrative or a promise about what might happen in 2030. We took each of Tesla's 4 business segments, assigned them the valuation of the best comparable company in each category, and added it all up.\n\nI want to see how the Tesla cult argues against what we found out...\n\nSegment one: Optimus robots. \n\nTesla's humanoid robots are teleoperated. There are videos of them falling over at exhibitions. They can barely serve popcorn. \n\nBut let's be generous. \n\nLet's give Tesla the valuation of Figure AI - a company that actually has working AI robots you can buy today. Figure AI is valued at $39 billion. On Tesla's 3.75 billion shares outstanding, that's $10 a share.\n\nSegment two: FSD and robotaxis. \n\nWaymo has completed over 127 million fully autonomous miles without a driver behind the wheel. They did 15 million paid rides in 2025 alone. They operate commercially across 6 US cities. \n\nTesla has done effectively ZERO reported fully autonomous miles at scale. \n\nBut let's give Tesla Waymo's valuation of $100 billion anyway. That's $27 a share.\n\nSo far we're at $37 for the two businesses the bulls say justify the entire market cap.\n\nSegment three: The auto business. \n\nFord sold 4.5 million cars in 2025 and grew sales. Tesla sold 1.6 million and it was the second consecutive year of declining deliveries. \n\nBut let's give Tesla Ford's market cap of $51 billion. That's $13 a share.\n\nSegment four: Energy. \n\nLG Electronics did $14.5 billion in gross profit last year. Tesla's energy business did $3.8 billion. \n\nBut let's give Tesla LG's market cap of $14 billion. That's $4 a share.\n\nAdd it all up:\n\n$10 + $27 + $13 + $4 = $54 a share\n\nThat's being GENEROUS. That's assuming Tesla is best in class in every single segment. \n\nBetter robots than the company with actual working robots. As good at autonomy as the company with 127 million autonomous miles. Worth as much as a car company that sells 3x more vehicles.\n\n$54.\n\nThe stock is $387.\n\nThe difference is literally $1.2 TRILLION. \n\nThat is what the market is currently paying for Elon Musk's promises. Promises that he literally just pushed out again on the earnings call two days ago.\n\nAnd when the stock price finally breaks - the lawsuits are going to cascade.\n\nRight now, the stock price is keeping those lawsuits at bay. People don't sue when they're making money. \n\nBut when the stock drops to $100, $80, $60 - those same owners are going to want a lot more than their FSD money back.\n\nThe positive reflexivity that carried this stock runs in reverse. Cash flow goes negative. Market share keeps declining. The SpaceX IPO pulls attention and capital away. Momentum investors move on. And then the math that Gordon and I just walked through becomes the ONLY thing left.\n\n$54 if you're generous. $25 if you're not.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.\n\nLet me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:\n\nElon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 \"simply does not have the https://t.co/f0V8Za3yri", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.006856196268826498, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.006856196268826498, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0008335229561829971, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0011479268799720055, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007689719225009495, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008004123148798503, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0062982346841573555, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0062982346841573555, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.004575446846593723, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.013459835503634499, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.001722787837563633, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007161600819477143, "ret_p1w": 0.038586287542583086, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.038586287542583086, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.029187751346553492, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.03909189111151312, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009398536196029594, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0005056035689300353, "ret_p1m": 0.13210210891637209, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13210210891637209, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08770063798125993, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12797374306188725, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04440147093511215, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004128365854484839, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13210210891637209, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08770063798125993, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12797374306188725, "price_path": [0.1451, 0.1466, 0.107, 0.1438, 0.1209, 0.1213, 0.079, 0.0556, 0.0925, 0.109, 0.13, 0.1381, 0.1083, 0.1093, 0.1093, 0.0912, 0.0931, 0.0941, 0.0944, 0.0625, 0.0879, 0.1092, 0.0858, 0.0697, 0.0718, 0.0429, 0.0788, 0.0777, 0.0543, 0.0595, 0.061, 0.0838, 0.0497, 0.0396, 0.0512, 0.061, 0.0438, 0.0106, -0.0222, 0.0121, 0.0179, 0.0256, -0.0111, -0.0385, -0.0559, -0.0121, 0.0132, -0.0417, -0.0417, -0.0624, -0.0788, -0.0878, -0.0815, -0.0727, -0.0635, -0.0322, 0.0416, 0.0335, 0.0646, 0.0431, 0.0269, 0.0298, -0.0069, 0.0, 0.0063, -0.0007, -0.0093, 0.0142, 0.0386, 0.0431, 0.0347, 0.0596, 0.0943, 0.1383, 0.1826, 0.1519, 0.1833, 0.178, 0.1221, 0.0895, 0.0739, 0.1088, 0.1104, 0.1321, 0.1321, 0.1522, 0.1702, 0.1749, 0.1581, 0.1052, 0.1261, 0.126, 0.112, 0.0391, 0.0868, 0.0542, 0.0141, 0.0607, 0.0801, 0.0926, 0.0754, 0.0534, 0.0643, 0.0643, 0.0764, 0.0141, -0.002, -0.0031, 0.0091, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2008186352706470137", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-05T14:38:31+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I believe $TSLA will be lucky to achieve 1.5mm", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: delivery estimate of 1.5mm vs parent's 2.1mm; assumptions deemed wildly unrealistic.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@scheiwiller You are expecting 2.1mm deliveries this year. I believe $TSLA will be lucky to achieve 1.5mm.\nYou are assumptions are wildly unrealistic in my opinion.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Click on my profile, see even more...\n\nFor example Tesla valuation models that are based on the company itself, it's performance &amp; potential!\n\nI'm not saying my model is perfect or even good, but it's for sure better than making inadequate comparisons to other/old companies lol. https://t.co/jaPgm2jj9Q", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "scheiwiller", "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2037973430218215618", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-28T19:21:44+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Stock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will. And when the gap between the story and the numbers gets this wide, you already know how it ends.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish both TSLA and META: earnings/fundamentals cannot support current valuations; exec pay tied to fantasy market-cap targets, not real business metrics.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Meta just filed SEC documents tying executive pay to a $9 trillion valuation by 2031.\n\n$9 TRILLION.\n\nThe company is worth $1.5 trillion today. That means they need a 500% increase in 5 years.\n\nAnd they're not the only ones playing this game.\n\nTesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk in November tied to an $8.5 trillion valuation target.\n\nLet me be clear about what's happening here: \n\nThese companies aren't building businesses anymore. They're building stock prices.\n\nLook at the actual numbers.\n\nTesla posted its first annual revenue decline in history in 2025. Revenue fell 3%. Net income collapsed 47% year over year to $3.8 billion. Automotive revenue dropped 10%.\n\nThe stock trades at 327 times trailing earnings.\n\nThat's not a valuation.\nMore like a hallucination.\n\nMusk's compensation requires 20 million vehicles a year, 1 million robotaxis, and 1 million humanoid robots. Tesla delivered roughly 1.8 million cars last year. \n\nMeanwhile Meta has incinerated nearly $80 billion in cumulative losses on Reality Labs since late 2020. The metaverse division's revenue doesn't even cover 16% of its operating costs. In 2025 alone, Reality Labs lost $19.2 billion.\n\nAnd stock-based compensation at Meta consumed 96% of the company's free cash flow last year. $42 billion. GONE. \n\nNot to shareholders or R&D with measurable returns, but to insiders betting on their own stock price.\n\nSo here's what both companies are REALLY doing:\n\nStep 1: Make outrageous promises about AI, robotaxis, metaverse, humanoid robots.\n\nStep 2: Tie executive compensation to market cap targets, not earnings, not revenue, not cash flow.\n\nStep 3: Spend billions on unproven bets that may never generate returns.\n\nStep 4: Use the promise of future transformation to justify present valuations that have zero relationship to current fundamentals.\n\nThis is the financialization of hype.\n\nIn 45 years on Wall Street, I've watched this playbook run over and over. The technology changes. The pitch changes. But the ending doesn't.\n\nStock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will.\n\nAnd when the gap between the story and the numbers gets this wide, you already know how it ends.\n\n---\n\nI just launched the NEW Founding Member plan for The Noble Update.\n\nHere's what's inside:\n\n- Full access to all premium Substack content (institutional-grade research, stock picks, and deep analysis multiple times per month)\n- FREE access to at least 6 online stock idea conferences per year and every bonus event we add on top (I'm planning up to 2-3 extra events depending on schedule)\n\nThe conferences alone are worth more than the membership.\n\nEach one features numerous presenters - hedge fund managers, buy-side analysts, independent research guys - all pitching their best ideas with full conviction. These kind of rooms used to be reserved for institutional investors paying thousands.\n\nBetween conferences, the Substack delivers the same caliber of thinking - real analysis, real names, and the same rigor I applied running billion-dollar portfolios for 45 years. Multiple times per month.\n\nThis is the all-inclusive package. Everything we do. One price. No surprises.\n\nJoin us today:\n\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.018436128730786372, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.018436128730786372, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.015081522283396431, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01824685874713916, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0033546064473899406, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00018926998364721115, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04635780589195071, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04635780589195071, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.017289940107193535, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.014936239271882812, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.029067865784757174, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0314215666200679, "ret_p1w": -0.006924092162605255, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006924092162605255, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04958438367301565, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03891346873361479, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0426602915104104, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03198937657100953, "ret_p1m": 0.05837646449458278, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.05837646449458278, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06776874460066606, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04904358449277213, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.12614520909524884, "bench_c_p1m": 0.10742004898735491, "ret_p3m": 0.05584326842506937, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05584326842506937, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10907236048738755, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.01907501483829832, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.16491562891245692, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07491828326336769, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.2658, 0.2658, 0.233, 0.2713, 0.2186, 0.2143, 0.2266, 0.2526, 0.2637, 0.2587, 0.2362, 0.2344, 0.2314, 0.2314, 0.1801, 0.2144, 0.2648, 0.264, 0.2249, 0.2128, 0.2144, 0.1725, 0.2115, 0.1873, 0.1877, 0.1428, 0.118, 0.1571, 0.1746, 0.1968, 0.2054, 0.1739, 0.175, 0.175, 0.1558, 0.1577, 0.1588, 0.1591, 0.1254, 0.1523, 0.1748, 0.15, 0.1329, 0.1352, 0.1046, 0.1426, 0.1415, 0.1167, 0.1222, 0.1237, 0.1479, 0.1118, 0.1011, 0.1134, 0.1238, 0.1056, 0.0704, 0.0357, 0.072, 0.0781, 0.0863, 0.0474, 0.0184, 0.0, 0.0464, 0.0731, 0.0149, 0.0149, -0.0069, -0.0243, -0.0339, -0.0272, -0.0178, -0.008, 0.0251, 0.1032, 0.0946, 0.1276, 0.1048, 0.0876, 0.0907, 0.0519, 0.0592, 0.0658, 0.0584, 0.0493, 0.0742, 0.1, 0.1048, 0.096, 0.1223, 0.1591, 0.2057, 0.2525, 0.22, 0.2533, 0.2477, 0.1885, 0.154, 0.1374, 0.1745, 0.1761, 0.1991, 0.1991, 0.2204, 0.2395, 0.2444, 0.2266, 0.1706, 0.1927, 0.1926, 0.1778, 0.1005, 0.1511, 0.1165, 0.0741, 0.1235, 0.144, 0.1573, 0.139, 0.1157, 0.1273, 0.1273, 0.1401, 0.0741, 0.057, 0.0558, 0.0688, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2037973430218215618", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-28T19:21:44+00:00", "symbol": "META", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Meta has incinerated nearly $80 billion in cumulative losses on Reality Labs since late 2020. The metaverse division's revenue doesn't even cover 16% of its operating costs.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish both TSLA and META: earnings/fundamentals cannot support current valuations; exec pay tied to fantasy market-cap targets, not real business metrics.", "resolved_tickers": ["META"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLC", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Content & Information'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Content & Information", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Meta just filed SEC documents tying executive pay to a $9 trillion valuation by 2031.\n\n$9 TRILLION.\n\nThe company is worth $1.5 trillion today. That means they need a 500% increase in 5 years.\n\nAnd they're not the only ones playing this game.\n\nTesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk in November tied to an $8.5 trillion valuation target.\n\nLet me be clear about what's happening here: \n\nThese companies aren't building businesses anymore. They're building stock prices.\n\nLook at the actual numbers.\n\nTesla posted its first annual revenue decline in history in 2025. Revenue fell 3%. Net income collapsed 47% year over year to $3.8 billion. Automotive revenue dropped 10%.\n\nThe stock trades at 327 times trailing earnings.\n\nThat's not a valuation.\nMore like a hallucination.\n\nMusk's compensation requires 20 million vehicles a year, 1 million robotaxis, and 1 million humanoid robots. Tesla delivered roughly 1.8 million cars last year. \n\nMeanwhile Meta has incinerated nearly $80 billion in cumulative losses on Reality Labs since late 2020. The metaverse division's revenue doesn't even cover 16% of its operating costs. In 2025 alone, Reality Labs lost $19.2 billion.\n\nAnd stock-based compensation at Meta consumed 96% of the company's free cash flow last year. $42 billion. GONE. \n\nNot to shareholders or R&D with measurable returns, but to insiders betting on their own stock price.\n\nSo here's what both companies are REALLY doing:\n\nStep 1: Make outrageous promises about AI, robotaxis, metaverse, humanoid robots.\n\nStep 2: Tie executive compensation to market cap targets, not earnings, not revenue, not cash flow.\n\nStep 3: Spend billions on unproven bets that may never generate returns.\n\nStep 4: Use the promise of future transformation to justify present valuations that have zero relationship to current fundamentals.\n\nThis is the financialization of hype.\n\nIn 45 years on Wall Street, I've watched this playbook run over and over. The technology changes. The pitch changes. But the ending doesn't.\n\nStock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will.\n\nAnd when the gap between the story and the numbers gets this wide, you already know how it ends.\n\n---\n\nI just launched the NEW Founding Member plan for The Noble Update.\n\nHere's what's inside:\n\n- Full access to all premium Substack content (institutional-grade research, stock picks, and deep analysis multiple times per month)\n- FREE access to at least 6 online stock idea conferences per year and every bonus event we add on top (I'm planning up to 2-3 extra events depending on schedule)\n\nThe conferences alone are worth more than the membership.\n\nEach one features numerous presenters - hedge fund managers, buy-side analysts, independent research guys - all pitching their best ideas with full conviction. These kind of rooms used to be reserved for institutional investors paying thousands.\n\nBetween conferences, the Substack delivers the same caliber of thinking - real analysis, real names, and the same rigor I applied running billion-dollar portfolios for 45 years. Multiple times per month.\n\nThis is the all-inclusive package. Everything we do. One price. No surprises.\n\nJoin us today:\n\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.019874114925740205, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.019874114925740205, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023228721373130146, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01135246493398745, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0033546064473899406, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008521649991752756, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06665043264096115, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06665043264096115, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03758256685620398, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03978866825349847, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.029067865784757174, "bench_c_p1d": 0.026861764387462683, "ret_p1w": 0.06830978849107039, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06830978849107039, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.02564949698065999, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.033111582704626885, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0426602915104104, "bench_c_p1w": 0.035198205786443504, "ret_p1m": 0.25161262987457844, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.25161262987457844, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1254674207793296, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1794563115549972, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.12614520909524884, "bench_c_p1m": 0.07215631831958125, "ret_p3m": 0.01303760071426674, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.01303760071426674, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15187802819819018, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.032538634311417236, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.16491562891245692, "bench_c_p3m": -0.019501033597150497, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.2296, 0.2296, 0.2116, 0.2272, 0.2306, 0.2084, 0.2035, 0.2165, 0.1958, 0.1756, 0.1466, 0.1564, 0.1554, 0.1554, 0.1253, 0.1418, 0.2064, 0.2271, 0.2524, 0.2536, 0.2457, 0.3753, 0.3347, 0.3159, 0.2885, 0.2462, 0.2484, 0.2321, 0.2615, 0.2494, 0.2456, 0.2104, 0.1917, 0.1917, 0.1908, 0.1982, 0.2011, 0.2213, 0.187, 0.1909, 0.2177, 0.2238, 0.2074, 0.2174, 0.2203, 0.2438, 0.2305, 0.2012, 0.2059, 0.2184, 0.2198, 0.1888, 0.1432, 0.1698, 0.1609, 0.1478, 0.1311, 0.1068, 0.1262, 0.1054, 0.1091, 0.0208, -0.0199, 0.0, 0.0667, 0.0799, 0.071, 0.071, 0.0683, 0.0721, 0.1418, 0.1715, 0.1743, 0.183, 0.2351, 0.2521, 0.2619, 0.2837, 0.2508, 0.247, 0.2579, 0.2289, 0.2585, 0.2652, 0.2516, 0.2475, 0.1408, 0.1349, 0.138, 0.1279, 0.1426, 0.1499, 0.1366, 0.1165, 0.1242, 0.1496, 0.153, 0.1451, 0.1395, 0.1235, 0.128, 0.1324, 0.1377, 0.1377, 0.1416, 0.1843, 0.1844, 0.1792, 0.1195, 0.1142, 0.1615, 0.17, 0.1056, 0.0914, 0.0899, 0.0645, 0.0598, 0.057, 0.1075, 0.12, 0.0591, 0.0771, 0.0771, 0.0522, 0.0491, 0.0407, 0.013, 0.0268, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2018778183538004383", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-03T20:06:40+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short Bitcoin. There, I fixed it.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short Bitcoin, stated as a decisive correction to an implied bullish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Short Bitcoin. There, I fixed it.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.040395021471746784, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.040395021471746784, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.031867532359360906, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.031867532359360906, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03455931736640505, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03455931736640505, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.029715463640411666, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.029715463640411666, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "ret_p1w": -0.0904305856342269, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0904305856342269, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0941867457902752, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0941867457902752, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "ret_p1m": -0.03864645875765693, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03864645875765693, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03226534687729876, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03226534687729876, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "bench_c_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "ret_p3m": 0.0336550807171172, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0336550807171172, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.014331400309869124, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.014331400309869124, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03864645875765693, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03226534687729876, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03226534687729876, "price_path": [0.3394, 0.3668, 0.4014, 0.3618, 0.3442, 0.3182, 0.2481, 0.2176, 0.2289, 0.2093, 0.1454, 0.125, 0.1671, 0.1548, 0.1968, 0.2069, 0.2021, 0.1413, 0.2078, 0.2366, 0.2183, 0.1819, 0.1984, 0.2255, 0.2167, 0.2232, 0.1935, 0.1426, 0.1614, 0.139, 0.13, 0.1649, 0.17, 0.1558, 0.1584, 0.1534, 0.1543, 0.1521, 0.1692, 0.157, 0.1732, 0.1892, 0.2413, 0.2393, 0.2072, 0.2035, 0.1967, 0.2057, 0.2603, 0.2816, 0.2633, 0.263, 0.2237, 0.1676, 0.1817, 0.1828, 0.1834, 0.167, 0.1781, 0.1792, 0.118, 0.1123, 0.0404, 0.0, -0.0346, -0.171, -0.0671, -0.0729, -0.0904, -0.1143, -0.1244, -0.0896, -0.0898, -0.1076, -0.1217, -0.1147, -0.1009, -0.1457, -0.1528, -0.1015, -0.1082, -0.1289, -0.0907, -0.097, -0.0386, -0.0634, -0.0991, -0.0956, -0.0755, -0.0718, -0.068, -0.0617, -0.0102, -0.0226, -0.058, -0.0756, -0.0676, -0.0624, -0.0676, -0.0572, -0.0905, -0.1229, -0.1182, -0.0978, -0.0999, -0.1156, -0.1151, -0.0896, -0.0488, -0.0596, -0.0511, -0.0351, -0.0152, -0.0192, -0.011, -0.0064, 0.0197, 0.0032, 0.0095, 0.034, 0.0348, 0.0241, 0.0229, 0.0095, 0.0019, 0.0089, 0.0337, 0.0555, 0.07, 0.0766, 0.0579, 0.0602, 0.0806, 0.064, 0.0482, 0.0716, 0.0454, 0.0175, 0.0148, 0.0241, 0.0252, -0.0019, 0.0218, 0.0025, -0.017, -0.0277, -0.0299, -0.057, -0.1181, -0.1536, -0.1564, -0.1945, -0.1658, -0.185, -0.1875, -0.1596, -0.1599, -0.1235, -0.1327, -0.1483, -0.1684, -0.1599, -0.1544, -0.1714, -0.1935, -0.2104, -0.2065, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007123477816557963", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-02T16:15:02+00:00", "symbol": "HOOD", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD. I am short.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short HOOD; author endorses bearish chart and confirms active short position.", "resolved_tickers": ["HOOD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "SELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD.\nI am short.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "HOOD, no comment, just a chart. https://t.co/u5xSIRYHGY", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.018314387875348337, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.018314387875348337, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.016484748489717704, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015401511214912622, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.002912876660435715, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06969880082551883, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06969880082551883, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06303859371727416, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0478528563043874, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.021845944521131422, "ret_p1w": 0.0005207669392459646, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0005207669392459646, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.015434306436739043, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.014043196074841724, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014563963014087689, "ret_p1m": -0.2195989551550398, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2195989551550398, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.23751542781939572, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.20321437418016475, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": -0.01638458097487505, "ret_p3m": -0.3914590645995363, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3914590645995363, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3531955218011895, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2961402473630733, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09531881723646296, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2195989551550398, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.23751542781939572, "alpha_c_stated": 0.20321437418016475, "price_path": [0.2586, 0.3095, 0.3233, 0.2061, 0.2211, 0.1713, 0.1644, 0.1409, 0.1276, 0.1787, 0.1443, 0.1042, 0.166, 0.2133, 0.266, 0.2694, 0.2568, 0.1984, 0.274, 0.2766, 0.1874, 0.2367, 0.103, 0.1315, 0.1794, 0.1451, 0.1542, 0.0549, 0.0633, 0.0066, -0.0079, 0.0256, -0.0781, -0.0687, -0.0021, 0.0031, 0.1128, 0.1128, 0.1153, 0.0697, 0.0932, 0.16, 0.1898, 0.1453, 0.1842, 0.1779, 0.1775, 0.0709, 0.0372, 0.0004, 0.0364, 0.0051, 0.0169, 0.0533, 0.0621, 0.0437, 0.0454, 0.0454, 0.0253, 0.0193, 0.0021, -0.0183, -0.0183, 0.0, 0.0697, 0.0563, 0.0153, 0.0016, 0.0005, 0.0201, 0.0437, 0.0387, -0.0422, -0.0562, -0.0562, -0.0819, -0.0806, -0.0778, -0.0713, -0.0713, -0.0865, -0.1025, -0.1213, -0.1365, -0.2196, -0.2442, -0.3002, -0.3692, -0.2811, -0.2487, -0.257, -0.3232, -0.3827, -0.3406, -0.3406, -0.3452, -0.3472, -0.3434, -0.3394, -0.377, -0.363, -0.3271, -0.3104, -0.3416, -0.3162, -0.3397, -0.2864, -0.3008, -0.3309, -0.3113, -0.3184, -0.317, -0.3393, -0.363, -0.3463, -0.3286, -0.3499, -0.3563, -0.3847, -0.3708, -0.4004, -0.3704, -0.3894, -0.427, -0.4344, -0.3985, -0.3915, -0.402, -0.402, -0.3943, -0.3955, -0.3765, -0.3914, -0.3994, -0.3779, -0.3135, -0.2421, -0.2462, -0.2123, -0.2078, -0.2498, -0.2324, -0.2749, -0.2647, -0.2713, -0.2876, -0.382, -0.3673, -0.3606, -0.3356, -0.3314, -0.3139, -0.3379, -0.3314, -0.2988, -0.3206, -0.3338, -0.2995, -0.3304, -0.3304, -0.3563, -0.3424, -0.341, -0.3608, -0.3608, -0.3569, -0.3383, -0.2636, -0.1815, -0.2125, -0.2348, -0.2809, -0.2333, -0.2842, -0.2619, -0.2729, -0.2504, -0.1995, -0.1911, -0.1483, -0.1606, -0.0869, -0.0613, -0.0613, -0.0825, -0.1038, -0.1564, -0.1887, -0.1434, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2037558572075135405", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-27T15:53:14+00:00", "symbol": "MU", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Micron's price-to-book was the most expensive in the stock's history, dressed up in a low PE because earnings were wildly above trend. The oldest trap in cyclical investing.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid semis/MU (overpriced cyclical, memory demand at risk from algorithmic efficiency); long gold and energy as the rotation play.", "resolved_tickers": ["MU"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Micron hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $471 eight days ago.\n\nIt's down over 20% since.\n\nA few weeks ago I literally told you to STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks. That the \"it's different this time\" crowd was dead wrong. That Micron's price-to-book was the most expensive in the stock's history, dressed up in a low PE because earnings were wildly above trend.\n\nThe oldest trap in cyclical investing.\n\nAnd what happened this week? Google dropped TurboQuant - a compression algorithm that cuts AI memory requirements by 6x. One research paper from Alphabet and Micron lost $90 per share in a week.\n\nTHIS is exactly what I warned about.\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, innovation floods in to compete those profits away. That's how capitalism works. And semiconductors are not exempt from the laws of economics no matter how many times CNBC tells you AI demand is \"permanent.\"\n\nMicron just posted a phenomenal quarter. Revenue nearly tripled. Margins at 75%. Earnings crushed estimates.\n\nAnd the stock FELL every single day after reporting.\n\nBecause the market is a forward-looking machine. And forward-looking machines eventually do the math on what happens when $650 billion in AI capex meets algorithmic efficiency that slashes memory needs overnight.\n\nThe cycle always turns. Always.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been calling continues. Gold above $4,600. Energy ripping.\n\nThe playbook hasn't changed: avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nI don't want you to believe I'm doing this to brag.\n\nI just want every single one of you to MAKE MONEY.\n\n---\n\nI just launched the NEW Founding Member plan for The Noble Update at $950/year.\n\nHere's what's inside:\n\n- Full access to all premium Substack content (institutional-grade research, stock picks, and deep analysis multiple times per month)\n- FREE access to at least 6 online stock idea conferences per year and every bonus event we add on top (I'm planning up to 2-3 extra events depending on schedule)\n\nLocked in at this price. Protected from any future increases.\n\nThe conferences alone are worth more than the membership.\n\nEach one features numerous presenters - hedge fund managers, buy-side analysts, independent research guys - all pitching their best ideas with full conviction. These kind of rooms used to be reserved for institutional investors paying thousands.\n\nBetween conferences, the Substack delivers the same caliber of thinking - real analysis, real names, and the same rigor I applied running billion-dollar portfolios for 45 years. Multiple times per month.\n\nThis is the all-inclusive package. Everything we do. One price. No surprises.\n\nJoin us today:\n\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.004926981565697819, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.004926981565697819, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.022274686959370182, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.022535522214704118, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.017347705393672364, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0176085406490063, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.09877620300722967, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.09877620300722967, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.09543281231979595, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.06746023448163685, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0033433906874337227, "bench_c_p1d": -0.03131596852559282, "ret_p1w": 0.02568119058465168, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.02568119058465168, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.008604173528399262, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.02260206211867155, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03428536411305094, "bench_c_p1w": 0.04828325270332323, "ret_p1m": 0.46906765283787744, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.46906765283787744, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.34119938889674883, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1163354958154994, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1278682639411286, "bench_c_p1m": 0.35273215702237803, "ret_p3m": 1.936426998231695, "ret_signed_p3m": -1.936426998231695, "alpha_spy_p3m": -1.7770821271686474, "alpha_c_p3m": -1.2826661888525202, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.15934487106304762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.6537608093791749, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.46906765283787744, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.34119938889674883, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1163354958154994, "price_path": [-0.1808, -0.201, -0.201, -0.117, -0.1262, -0.0386, -0.0495, -0.0845, -0.034, -0.0318, -0.0534, -0.0668, -0.0576, 0.0155, 0.0155, 0.0218, 0.0893, 0.113, 0.1188, 0.0892, 0.1484, 0.2185, 0.2199, 0.1614, 0.2256, 0.1742, 0.0621, 0.0719, 0.1049, 0.0736, 0.0449, 0.1487, 0.1589, 0.1524, 0.1524, 0.1191, 0.1784, 0.1683, 0.1986, 0.1785, 0.1702, 0.2009, 0.1633, 0.1544, 0.1552, 0.0629, 0.1219, 0.1115, 0.0366, 0.0899, 0.1285, 0.1721, 0.1347, 0.1929, 0.2368, 0.2925, 0.2926, 0.2437, 0.1839, 0.1319, 0.1072, 0.0696, -0.0049, 0.0, -0.0988, -0.0539, 0.0302, 0.0257, 0.0257, 0.0579, 0.0574, 0.1391, 0.1805, 0.1779, 0.1946, 0.3041, 0.2777, 0.2805, 0.2745, 0.2558, 0.2585, 0.3652, 0.3491, 0.3911, 0.4691, 0.4123, 0.452, 0.4483, 0.5185, 0.6144, 0.7929, 0.8668, 0.8109, 1.0915, 1.2274, 1.1469, 1.2506, 1.1733, 1.0295, 0.9087, 0.9569, 1.05, 1.1343, 1.1032, 1.1032, 1.509, 1.6001, 1.5864, 1.7194, 1.9, 1.9801, 2.0234, 1.7894, 1.4197, 1.6585, 1.621, 1.4978, 1.789, 1.7491, 2.047, 1.8587, 1.9215, 2.1758, 2.1758, 2.3926, 1.9456, 1.9364, 2.3987, 2.1712, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2037558572075135405", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-27T15:53:14+00:00", "symbol": "Gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold above $4,600", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid semis/MU (overpriced cyclical, memory demand at risk from algorithmic efficiency); long gold and energy as the rotation play.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Micron hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $471 eight days ago.\n\nIt's down over 20% since.\n\nA few weeks ago I literally told you to STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks. That the \"it's different this time\" crowd was dead wrong. That Micron's price-to-book was the most expensive in the stock's history, dressed up in a low PE because earnings were wildly above trend.\n\nThe oldest trap in cyclical investing.\n\nAnd what happened this week? Google dropped TurboQuant - a compression algorithm that cuts AI memory requirements by 6x. One research paper from Alphabet and Micron lost $90 per share in a week.\n\nTHIS is exactly what I warned about.\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, innovation floods in to compete those profits away. That's how capitalism works. And semiconductors are not exempt from the laws of economics no matter how many times CNBC tells you AI demand is \"permanent.\"\n\nMicron just posted a phenomenal quarter. Revenue nearly tripled. Margins at 75%. Earnings crushed estimates.\n\nAnd the stock FELL every single day after reporting.\n\nBecause the market is a forward-looking machine. And forward-looking machines eventually do the math on what happens when $650 billion in AI capex meets algorithmic efficiency that slashes memory needs overnight.\n\nThe cycle always turns. Always.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been calling continues. Gold above $4,600. Energy ripping.\n\nThe playbook hasn't changed: avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nI don't want you to believe I'm doing this to brag.\n\nI just want every single one of you to MAKE MONEY.\n\n---\n\nI just launched the NEW Founding Member plan for The Noble Update at $950/year.\n\nHere's what's inside:\n\n- Full access to all premium Substack content (institutional-grade research, stock picks, and deep analysis multiple times per month)\n- FREE access to at least 6 online stock idea conferences per year and every bonus event we add on top (I'm planning up to 2-3 extra events depending on schedule)\n\nLocked in at this price. Protected from any future increases.\n\nThe conferences alone are worth more than the membership.\n\nEach one features numerous presenters - hedge fund managers, buy-side analysts, independent research guys - all pitching their best ideas with full conviction. These kind of rooms used to be reserved for institutional investors paying thousands.\n\nBetween conferences, the Substack delivers the same caliber of thinking - real analysis, real names, and the same rigor I applied running billion-dollar portfolios for 45 years. Multiple times per month.\n\nThis is the all-inclusive package. Everything we do. One price. No surprises.\n\nJoin us today:\n\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03390402012232052, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03390402012232052, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.051251725515992885, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.051251725515992885, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.017347705393672364, "bench_c_m1d": 0.017347705393672364, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0002894276132928697, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0002894276132928697, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.003053963074140853, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.003053963074140853, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0033433906874337227, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0033433906874337227, "ret_p1w": 0.03547140347739952, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03547140347739952, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.001186039364348579, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.001186039364348579, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03428536411305094, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03428536411305094, "ret_p1m": 0.036628893161987586, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.036628893161987586, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.09123937077914102, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.09123937077914102, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1278682639411286, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1278682639411286, "ret_p3m": -0.11762719397978794, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.11762719397978794, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.27697206504283556, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.27697206504283556, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.15934487106304762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.15934487106304762, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.036628893161987586, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.09123937077914102, "alpha_c_stated": -0.09123937077914102, "price_path": [-0.0381, -0.0443, -0.0443, -0.0396, -0.0143, -0.0037, -0.0132, -0.0077, -0.0006, 0.0182, 0.0167, 0.0271, 0.0208, 0.0159, 0.0159, 0.0543, 0.0697, 0.0894, 0.1044, 0.1206, 0.1481, 0.1926, 0.1958, 0.0729, 0.03, 0.0955, 0.0947, 0.0655, 0.0983, 0.1262, 0.115, 0.1276, 0.0885, 0.1156, 0.1156, 0.0808, 0.1051, 0.1082, 0.13, 0.1605, 0.1445, 0.1416, 0.1514, 0.1665, 0.1816, 0.1289, 0.1377, 0.124, 0.1418, 0.1395, 0.1523, 0.1484, 0.1258, 0.1113, 0.1103, 0.1075, 0.0724, 0.0282, -0.0032, -0.0257, -0.0255, 0.0038, -0.0339, 0.0, -0.0003, 0.0376, 0.0558, 0.0355, 0.0355, 0.0312, 0.0413, 0.0478, 0.056, 0.0541, 0.0498, 0.0733, 0.0621, 0.0612, 0.0753, 0.066, 0.0359, 0.0496, 0.0394, 0.0447, 0.0366, 0.0174, 0.0065, 0.0216, 0.0204, 0.0, 0.0086, 0.0392, 0.0409, 0.046, 0.0481, 0.044, 0.0381, 0.0302, 0.0062, 0.009, -0.0077, 0.0065, 0.0055, -0.0021, -0.0021, -0.0017, -0.015, -0.0047, 0.0058, -0.0083, -0.0066, -0.0165, -0.0083, -0.0445, -0.042, -0.0577, -0.0967, -0.0684, -0.0679, -0.0438, -0.0412, -0.0629, -0.0665, -0.0665, -0.0726, -0.0901, -0.1176, -0.1091, -0.099, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2037558572075135405", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-03-27T15:53:14+00:00", "symbol": "Energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy ripping", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid semis/MU (overpriced cyclical, memory demand at risk from algorithmic efficiency); long gold and energy as the rotation play.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE is the primary US energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Micron hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $471 eight days ago.\n\nIt's down over 20% since.\n\nA few weeks ago I literally told you to STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks. That the \"it's different this time\" crowd was dead wrong. That Micron's price-to-book was the most expensive in the stock's history, dressed up in a low PE because earnings were wildly above trend.\n\nThe oldest trap in cyclical investing.\n\nAnd what happened this week? Google dropped TurboQuant - a compression algorithm that cuts AI memory requirements by 6x. One research paper from Alphabet and Micron lost $90 per share in a week.\n\nTHIS is exactly what I warned about.\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, innovation floods in to compete those profits away. That's how capitalism works. And semiconductors are not exempt from the laws of economics no matter how many times CNBC tells you AI demand is \"permanent.\"\n\nMicron just posted a phenomenal quarter. Revenue nearly tripled. Margins at 75%. Earnings crushed estimates.\n\nAnd the stock FELL every single day after reporting.\n\nBecause the market is a forward-looking machine. And forward-looking machines eventually do the math on what happens when $650 billion in AI capex meets algorithmic efficiency that slashes memory needs overnight.\n\nThe cycle always turns. Always.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been calling continues. Gold above $4,600. Energy ripping.\n\nThe playbook hasn't changed: avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nI don't want you to believe I'm doing this to brag.\n\nI just want every single one of you to MAKE MONEY.\n\n---\n\nI just launched the NEW Founding Member plan for The Noble Update at $950/year.\n\nHere's what's inside:\n\n- Full access to all premium Substack content (institutional-grade research, stock picks, and deep analysis multiple times per month)\n- FREE access to at least 6 online stock idea conferences per year and every bonus event we add on top (I'm planning up to 2-3 extra events depending on schedule)\n\nLocked in at this price. Protected from any future increases.\n\nThe conferences alone are worth more than the membership.\n\nEach one features numerous presenters - hedge fund managers, buy-side analysts, independent research guys - all pitching their best ideas with full conviction. These kind of rooms used to be reserved for institutional investors paying thousands.\n\nBetween conferences, the Substack delivers the same caliber of thinking - real analysis, real names, and the same rigor I applied running billion-dollar portfolios for 45 years. Multiple times per month.\n\nThis is the all-inclusive package. Everything we do. One price. No surprises.\n\nJoin us today:\n\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01662405906289066, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01662405906289066, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.033971764456563025, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.033971764456563025, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.017347705393672364, "bench_c_m1d": 0.017347705393672364, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.009590841100200476, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.009590841100200476, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006247450412766753, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.006247450412766753, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0033433906874337227, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0033433906874337227, "ret_p1w": -0.05290921647764246, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05290921647764246, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0871945805906934, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0871945805906934, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03428536411305094, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03428536411305094, "ret_p1m": -0.09255114678173637, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.09255114678173637, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.22041941072286497, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.22041941072286497, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1278682639411286, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1278682639411286, "ret_p3m": -0.13752665854128143, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13752665854128143, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.29687152960432905, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.29687152960432905, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.15934487106304762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.15934487106304762, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.09255114678173637, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.22041941072286497, "alpha_c_stated": -0.22041941072286497, "price_path": [-0.286, -0.29, -0.29, -0.275, -0.2553, -0.2752, -0.2833, -0.2607, -0.2588, -0.2641, -0.2536, -0.2368, -0.2439, -0.2426, -0.2426, -0.2441, -0.2258, -0.2233, -0.2188, -0.2183, -0.2112, -0.2052, -0.1979, -0.1893, -0.2052, -0.1794, -0.161, -0.1709, -0.1543, -0.1481, -0.1491, -0.1269, -0.1427, -0.1369, -0.1369, -0.1464, -0.13, -0.1237, -0.1285, -0.1242, -0.125, -0.1286, -0.1258, -0.1119, -0.0942, -0.1024, -0.1077, -0.103, -0.1016, -0.1056, -0.117, -0.0951, -0.0867, -0.0837, -0.0805, -0.0708, -0.0721, -0.0573, -0.0581, -0.0468, -0.0275, -0.0318, -0.0166, 0.0, -0.0096, -0.0208, -0.0574, -0.0529, -0.0529, -0.046, -0.0384, -0.0721, -0.0836, -0.0898, -0.0871, -0.1057, -0.1087, -0.0956, -0.1205, -0.1197, -0.1069, -0.0962, -0.0892, -0.091, -0.0926, -0.0775, -0.0564, -0.0465, -0.0593, -0.0507, -0.0497, -0.0889, -0.1057, -0.1097, -0.0862, -0.0798, -0.0788, -0.0718, -0.0499, -0.0316, -0.0203, -0.0441, -0.0548, -0.0491, -0.0491, -0.0753, -0.089, -0.0897, -0.1002, -0.0841, -0.0735, -0.0615, -0.0609, -0.0782, -0.0676, -0.0826, -0.0689, -0.087, -0.0801, -0.1121, -0.1151, -0.1261, -0.1405, -0.1405, -0.1296, -0.1232, -0.1375, -0.1292, -0.1332, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2037558572075135405", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-03-27T15:53:14+00:00", "symbol": "semiconductors", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I literally told you to STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid semis/MU (overpriced cyclical, memory demand at risk from algorithmic efficiency); long gold and energy as the rotation play.", "resolved_tickers": ["SMH"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SMH is the primary US semiconductor ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Micron hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $471 eight days ago.\n\nIt's down over 20% since.\n\nA few weeks ago I literally told you to STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks. That the \"it's different this time\" crowd was dead wrong. That Micron's price-to-book was the most expensive in the stock's history, dressed up in a low PE because earnings were wildly above trend.\n\nThe oldest trap in cyclical investing.\n\nAnd what happened this week? Google dropped TurboQuant - a compression algorithm that cuts AI memory requirements by 6x. One research paper from Alphabet and Micron lost $90 per share in a week.\n\nTHIS is exactly what I warned about.\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, innovation floods in to compete those profits away. That's how capitalism works. And semiconductors are not exempt from the laws of economics no matter how many times CNBC tells you AI demand is \"permanent.\"\n\nMicron just posted a phenomenal quarter. Revenue nearly tripled. Margins at 75%. Earnings crushed estimates.\n\nAnd the stock FELL every single day after reporting.\n\nBecause the market is a forward-looking machine. And forward-looking machines eventually do the math on what happens when $650 billion in AI capex meets algorithmic efficiency that slashes memory needs overnight.\n\nThe cycle always turns. Always.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been calling continues. Gold above $4,600. Energy ripping.\n\nThe playbook hasn't changed: avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nI don't want you to believe I'm doing this to brag.\n\nI just want every single one of you to MAKE MONEY.\n\n---\n\nI just launched the NEW Founding Member plan for The Noble Update at $950/year.\n\nHere's what's inside:\n\n- Full access to all premium Substack content (institutional-grade research, stock picks, and deep analysis multiple times per month)\n- FREE access to at least 6 online stock idea conferences per year and every bonus event we add on top (I'm planning up to 2-3 extra events depending on schedule)\n\nLocked in at this price. Protected from any future increases.\n\nThe conferences alone are worth more than the membership.\n\nEach one features numerous presenters - hedge fund managers, buy-side analysts, independent research guys - all pitching their best ideas with full conviction. These kind of rooms used to be reserved for institutional investors paying thousands.\n\nBetween conferences, the Substack delivers the same caliber of thinking - real analysis, real names, and the same rigor I applied running billion-dollar portfolios for 45 years. Multiple times per month.\n\nThis is the all-inclusive package. Everything we do. One price. No surprises.\n\nJoin us today:\n\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0176085406490063, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0176085406490063, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0002608352553339355, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0002608352553339355, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.017347705393672364, "bench_c_m1d": 0.017347705393672364, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03131596852559282, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03131596852559282, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027972577838159096, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.027972577838159096, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0033433906874337227, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0033433906874337227, "ret_p1w": 0.04828325270332323, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04828325270332323, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.01399788859027229, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.01399788859027229, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03428536411305094, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03428536411305094, "ret_p1m": 0.35273215702237803, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.35273215702237803, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.22486389308124943, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.22486389308124943, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.1278682639411286, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1278682639411286, "ret_p3m": 0.6537608093791749, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.6537608093791749, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.4944159383161273, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.4944159383161273, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.15934487106304762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.15934487106304762, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.35273215702237803, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.22486389308124943, "alpha_c_stated": -0.22486389308124943, "price_path": [-0.0292, -0.0377, -0.0377, -0.0025, 0.0089, 0.0357, 0.0288, 0.0126, 0.04, 0.0438, 0.0462, 0.0377, 0.0592, 0.0698, 0.0698, 0.0431, 0.074, 0.0763, 0.069, 0.0657, 0.0882, 0.1132, 0.1156, 0.078, 0.0901, 0.0626, 0.0208, 0.0182, 0.0732, 0.0866, 0.0815, 0.1083, 0.0851, 0.0894, 0.0894, 0.0889, 0.1023, 0.0961, 0.109, 0.1032, 0.12, 0.1387, 0.1009, 0.0858, 0.0859, 0.0449, 0.0664, 0.0564, 0.0169, 0.0538, 0.0617, 0.0716, 0.0371, 0.0349, 0.0526, 0.0605, 0.0519, 0.0552, 0.028, 0.0457, 0.0543, 0.0662, 0.0176, 0.0, -0.0313, 0.0244, 0.0473, 0.0483, 0.0483, 0.0581, 0.0685, 0.13, 0.1498, 0.1673, 0.1846, 0.2077, 0.2104, 0.2152, 0.2402, 0.2397, 0.2416, 0.2741, 0.2875, 0.3532, 0.3527, 0.3125, 0.3349, 0.354, 0.3622, 0.3541, 0.3966, 0.469, 0.4432, 0.5138, 0.5399, 0.4997, 0.5296, 0.5453, 0.4865, 0.4593, 0.4535, 0.5088, 0.5174, 0.5399, 0.5399, 0.6089, 0.5912, 0.6028, 0.6003, 0.6241, 0.6893, 0.7045, 0.6768, 0.5222, 0.5983, 0.5792, 0.5255, 0.6285, 0.6565, 0.7291, 0.646, 0.6673, 0.7632, 0.7632, 0.7873, 0.6621, 0.6538, 0.7018, 0.6342, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007575776489811987", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-03T22:12:18+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect deliveries to fall for a third consecutive year in 2026 - I could easily envision a decline of 10%. Combine that with the absence of EV credits (about $2.5b in 2025) and it is possible that $TSLA will lose money this year.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: expects third straight year of delivery declines in 2026 (~10%) plus loss of ~$2.5B EV credits could push company to a loss.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The post below from  @Gfilche wins the award for analytical malpractice of the day. What an extraordinarily bad take.\n\nExtremely bearish is more like it!\n\n418k deliveries 4q 2025 represents a decline of 15% from 4q 2024. The business is seasonal and therefore correct analysis calls for a YOY comparison. The 4q number is truly AWFUL.\n\nI expect deliveries to fall for a third consecutive year in 2026 - I could easily envision a decline of 10%.\n\nCombine that with the absence of EV credits (about $2.5b in 2025) and it is possible that $TSLA will lose money this year. \n\nThank you @TroyTeslike for your graph. @BradMunchen @FredLambert", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "extremely bullish print on Q4 deliveries from @Tesla ⚡️\n\n418K cars\n\nfar higher than Q1 or Q2 of this year. will make $TSLA comfortably profitable\n\nadditionally, energy deployed set another record, will continue to drive meaningful earnings growth 🦾 https://t.co/nQHRzRGzmb", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2011365168400261244", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-14T09:10:00+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Staying short Opendoor. $OPEN", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Maintaining short position in Opendoor.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@almondmilk @GMN_watch @Opendoor Staying short Opendoor. $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@GMN_watch @gnoble79 Bye bye @gnoble79 , don't let the @Opendoor hit you on the ass on your way out!", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "almondmilk", "ret_m1d": 0.019578330881763195, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.019578330881763195, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.014638798929857533, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0306920668754046, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004939531951905662, "bench_c_m1d": -0.011113735993641405, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05120477147399205, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05120477147399205, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.053928068981979216, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05869460962190498, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0027232975079871657, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0074898381479129306, "ret_p1w": -0.024096363046584468, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.024096363046584468, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016911799379461745, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.027962022557056043, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007184563667122723, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003865659510471575, "ret_p1m": -0.34036141528431163, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.34036141528431163, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.327194485146314, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.3761188359541009, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.013166930137997634, "bench_c_p1m": 0.035757420669789264, "ret_p3m": -0.34337346066513474, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.34337346066513474, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.33991698818510485, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.38974106419023136, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.003456472480029893, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04636760352509661, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.34036141528431163, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.327194485146314, "alpha_c_stated": 0.3761188359541009, "price_path": [0.0783, 0.1099, 0.0482, 0.0271, 0.0587, 0.2003, 0.2289, 0.2003, 0.1521, 0.1054, 0.1702, 0.1431, 0.0422, 0.0889, -0.012, -0.012, 0.2003, 0.2771, 0.4111, 0.2892, 0.2229, 0.1807, 0.1325, 0.0075, -0.0723, 0.0166, 0.1581, 0.1657, 0.1717, 0.1717, 0.1596, 0.0753, 0.0527, 0.0452, 0.1416, 0.0768, 0.0617, 0.116, 0.0542, 0.0617, -0.012, -0.0256, 0.0136, -0.0783, -0.0542, -0.0422, -0.0331, -0.0557, -0.0542, -0.0542, -0.0949, -0.122, -0.1205, -0.122, -0.122, -0.0858, -0.0482, 0.0437, -0.0783, -0.0316, 0.0979, 0.0572, 0.0196, 0.0, -0.0512, 0.0045, 0.0045, -0.0377, -0.0241, -0.0331, -0.0949, -0.116, -0.125, -0.1325, -0.1596, -0.2244, -0.2741, -0.2274, -0.247, -0.2922, -0.2651, -0.256, -0.2937, -0.2831, -0.3404, -0.3306, -0.3306, -0.3479, -0.3027, -0.2997, -0.247, -0.2801, -0.2304, -0.25, -0.1852, -0.1837, -0.2395, -0.2515, -0.2651, -0.2199, -0.247, -0.2349, -0.2455, -0.2063, -0.2711, -0.2545, -0.2199, -0.1627, -0.2048, -0.2259, -0.2605, -0.2154, -0.2199, -0.2319, -0.262, -0.2771, -0.3328, -0.2952, -0.3117, -0.2861, -0.2861, -0.3057, -0.3148, -0.3012, -0.3509, -0.3494, -0.3434, -0.3208, -0.2741, -0.2063, -0.2033, -0.1943, -0.1792, -0.1822, -0.2139, -0.1702, -0.1883, -0.1747, -0.1596, -0.1898, -0.1807, -0.2274, -0.2123, -0.1777, -0.1988, -0.2455, -0.2696, -0.2907, -0.3102, -0.3268, -0.3404, -0.3554, -0.3524, -0.3373, -0.3117, -0.3178, -0.3178, -0.3253, -0.2846, -0.2364, -0.241, -0.2003, -0.1852, -0.2666, -0.2545, -0.3343, -0.3509, -0.3464, -0.3253, -0.3268, -0.3313, -0.3057, -0.2846, -0.3298, -0.3268, -0.3268, -0.3554, -0.3675, -0.3554, -0.3524, -0.3419, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2021572153833828805", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-11T13:08:55+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I will take the under on that. $25k on the line.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Betting $25k that MSTR will NOT make a new all-time high within the next 24 months; explicit bearish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I accept the wager as proposed by @HodlMagoo .  He is willing to bet that $MSTR makes a new all time high in the next 24 months. I will take the under on that. $25k on the line. \n\nWho will help broker this arrangement? \n@TgMacro or @dailydirtnap, will you preside over this transaction? I suggest that @HodlMagoo and I each put $1k in an escrow account as a sign of good faith.\n\nThis will be glorious. Let’s post this far and wide. \n\nLet’s get the media to cover this.\n\nAnyone have any other suggestions?\n\nAlso, anyone else want to join @HodlMagoo in betting against me? \n\n@dotkrueger @MichaelMOTTCM @LukeGromen @cvpayne @samvadas @unusual_whales @LynAldenContact @biancoresearch @TaviCosta @davevermilion", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @saylor @gnoble79 want to make a $25,000 bet that $MSTR will make a new all time high within the next 24 months?", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.05496946396407654, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.05496946396407654, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.054738288390618006, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.054738288390618006, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0002311755734585308, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0002311755734585308, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.024351548364049513, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.024351548364049513, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.008902688666163283, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.008902688666163283, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.01544885969788623, "bench_c_p1d": -0.01544885969788623, "ret_p1w": -0.006900949858713701, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006900949858713701, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.001293235494792988, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.001293235494792988, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.008194185353506689, "bench_c_p1w": -0.008194185353506689, "ret_p1m": 0.08939475426626098, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08939475426626098, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12682471325498712, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12682471325498712, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.03742995898872614, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03742995898872614, "ret_p3m": 0.5542159349227835, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.5542159349227835, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.48288377215779943, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.48288377215779943, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07133216276498411, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07133216276498411, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.5844, 0.5501, 0.6404, 0.4793, 0.405, 0.3524, 0.4202, 0.3658, 0.3932, 0.3932, 0.4054, 0.3597, 0.4383, 0.4943, 0.4755, 0.4198, 0.457, 0.4991, 0.4646, 0.454, 0.3996, 0.2856, 0.3286, 0.2722, 0.2552, 0.3074, 0.3034, 0.2523, 0.2589, 0.2589, 0.2597, 0.2326, 0.2343, 0.2053, 0.2053, 0.2466, 0.3066, 0.253, 0.2837, 0.3244, 0.248, 0.2868, 0.3722, 0.4225, 0.3557, 0.3779, 0.3779, 0.271, 0.2994, 0.2769, 0.2938, 0.2737, 0.2817, 0.2568, 0.1358, 0.1875, 0.1076, 0.057, 0.024, -0.1513, 0.0703, 0.0981, 0.055, 0.0, -0.0244, 0.0619, 0.0619, 0.0206, -0.0069, 0.0268, 0.0395, -0.0187, -0.0116, 0.076, 0.0581, 0.0272, 0.0919, 0.0524, 0.1616, 0.109, 0.0592, 0.1022, 0.0983, 0.0972, 0.0894, 0.1079, 0.1701, 0.192, 0.1149, 0.0965, 0.0761, 0.0962, 0.0807, 0.1036, 0.0544, -0.0003, -0.0367, -0.0101, -0.0261, -0.0495, -0.0495, 0.0129, -0.0186, 0.0177, 0.0221, 0.0204, 0.0499, 0.09, 0.1386, 0.1814, 0.3209, 0.3549, 0.3006, 0.4227, 0.368, 0.3565, 0.3421, 0.3144, 0.2548, 0.3124, 0.4053, 0.4579, 0.4825, 0.4819, 0.4265, 0.488, 0.5542, 0.4628, 0.4122, 0.4831, 0.4073, 0.3217, 0.3059, 0.3152, 0.3076, 0.2683, 0.2683, 0.2686, 0.2231, 0.2028, 0.2619, 0.1881, 0.0794, 0.0038, 0.0262, -0.0447, 0.009, -0.0718, -0.085, -0.047, -0.0167, 0.0402, -0.0259, -0.0754, -0.1074, -0.1074, -0.1318, -0.1763, -0.2534, -0.3232, -0.3471, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006764062257066024", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-01T16:26:50+00:00", "symbol": "GC=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I would expect gold to soar", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "If Fed buys TLT in current inflationary/deficit environment, gold soars and dollar declines.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@commonsenseplay @TaviCosta The present environment is much different - inflation is not dead and the deficits are much higher, so there are significant constraints. \nSuch a move by them would be real banana republic type behavior. I would expect gold to soar and the dollar to decline.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @TaviCosta If they start buying TLT rips higher, they we done it multiple times before \n\nhttps://t.co/KyZV4S06nw", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "commonsenseplay", "ret_m1d": -0.004946272036610022, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004946272036610022, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0031166326509793896, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0031166326509793896, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.026313174195160993, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.026313174195160993, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01965296708691633, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01965296708691633, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "ret_p1w": 0.04064980036915644, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04064980036915644, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.024694726993171434, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.024694726993171434, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "ret_p1m": 0.07243649239715544, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07243649239715544, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05452001973279952, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05452001973279952, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "ret_p3m": 0.09927691238854441, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.09927691238854441, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13754045518689118, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.13754045518689118, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07243649239715544, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05452001973279952, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05452001973279952, "price_path": [-0.0804, -0.0652, -0.0825, -0.0732, -0.0507, -0.0439, -0.0273, -0.0046, -0.0233, 0.0122, -0.0528, -0.0527, -0.0489, -0.0521, -0.0785, -0.0851, -0.0886, -0.0707, -0.0757, -0.0741, -0.0903, -0.0798, -0.0809, -0.0752, -0.05, -0.0462, -0.0309, -0.0387, -0.056, -0.0669, -0.0601, -0.0586, -0.0588, -0.0603, -0.0454, -0.0457, -0.0381, -0.0381, -0.0261, -0.0214, -0.0277, -0.0286, -0.028, -0.0297, -0.0323, -0.0273, -0.0232, -0.0127, -0.0071, -0.0062, -0.006, 0.0025, 0.0007, 0.0019, 0.025, 0.0386, 0.0343, 0.0343, 0.0463, 0.0008, 0.0015, -0.0049, -0.0049, 0.0, 0.0263, 0.0374, 0.0275, 0.0332, 0.0406, 0.0601, 0.0586, 0.0694, 0.0629, 0.0578, 0.0578, 0.0978, 0.1138, 0.1344, 0.1499, 0.1668, 0.1954, 0.2417, 0.2451, 0.1172, 0.0724, 0.1406, 0.1398, 0.1095, 0.1436, 0.1726, 0.161, 0.1741, 0.1333, 0.1615, 0.1615, 0.1253, 0.1506, 0.1539, 0.1766, 0.2084, 0.1916, 0.1887, 0.1989, 0.2146, 0.2303, 0.1754, 0.1846, 0.1704, 0.1889, 0.1864, 0.1998, 0.1957, 0.1722, 0.1571, 0.156, 0.1531, 0.1167, 0.0706, 0.0379, 0.0145, 0.0147, 0.0452, 0.0059, 0.0412, 0.0409, 0.0804, 0.0993, 0.0782, 0.0782, 0.0737, 0.0842, 0.091, 0.0995, 0.0975, 0.0931, 0.1175, 0.1059, 0.105, 0.1196, 0.11, 0.0786, 0.0928, 0.0823, 0.0878, 0.0794, 0.0593, 0.048, 0.0637, 0.0625, 0.0413, 0.0502, 0.0821, 0.0839, 0.0891, 0.0913, 0.087, 0.0809, 0.0726, 0.0477, 0.0506, 0.0332, 0.048, 0.047, 0.039, 0.039, 0.0395, 0.0256, 0.0364, 0.0473, 0.0326, 0.0343, 0.0241, 0.0326, -0.0051, -0.0025, -0.0188, -0.0595, -0.03, -0.0295, -0.0043, -0.0016, -0.0243, -0.028, -0.028, -0.0344, -0.0526, -0.0812, -0.0724, -0.0619, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006789498596958685", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-01T18:07:55+00:00", "symbol": "GC=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold would explode", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "If Fed monetizes long end: gold surges and USD falls.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GC=F is gold futures; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@kesor6 @Gupalo1974 @commonsenseplay @TaviCosta Gold would explode and the dollar would fall.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@Gupalo1974 @commonsenseplay @gnoble79 @TaviCosta There is not that much \"long end\" to buy. If the Fed really does financialize the long end, obviously the prices will rise and the yield will become lower. But it doesn't solve the problem of the Fed being the major holder of US debt, long or short.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "kesor6", "ret_m1d": -0.004946272036610022, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004946272036610022, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0031166326509793896, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0031166326509793896, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.026313174195160993, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.026313174195160993, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01965296708691633, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01965296708691633, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "ret_p1w": 0.04064980036915644, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04064980036915644, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.024694726993171434, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.024694726993171434, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "ret_p1m": 0.07243649239715544, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07243649239715544, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05452001973279952, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05452001973279952, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "ret_p3m": 0.09927691238854441, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.09927691238854441, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13754045518689118, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.13754045518689118, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07243649239715544, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05452001973279952, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05452001973279952, "price_path": [-0.0804, -0.0652, -0.0825, -0.0732, -0.0507, -0.0439, -0.0273, -0.0046, -0.0233, 0.0122, -0.0528, -0.0527, -0.0489, -0.0521, -0.0785, -0.0851, -0.0886, -0.0707, -0.0757, -0.0741, -0.0903, -0.0798, -0.0809, -0.0752, -0.05, -0.0462, -0.0309, -0.0387, -0.056, -0.0669, -0.0601, -0.0586, -0.0588, -0.0603, -0.0454, -0.0457, -0.0381, -0.0381, -0.0261, -0.0214, -0.0277, -0.0286, -0.028, -0.0297, -0.0323, -0.0273, -0.0232, -0.0127, -0.0071, -0.0062, -0.006, 0.0025, 0.0007, 0.0019, 0.025, 0.0386, 0.0343, 0.0343, 0.0463, 0.0008, 0.0015, -0.0049, -0.0049, 0.0, 0.0263, 0.0374, 0.0275, 0.0332, 0.0406, 0.0601, 0.0586, 0.0694, 0.0629, 0.0578, 0.0578, 0.0978, 0.1138, 0.1344, 0.1499, 0.1668, 0.1954, 0.2417, 0.2451, 0.1172, 0.0724, 0.1406, 0.1398, 0.1095, 0.1436, 0.1726, 0.161, 0.1741, 0.1333, 0.1615, 0.1615, 0.1253, 0.1506, 0.1539, 0.1766, 0.2084, 0.1916, 0.1887, 0.1989, 0.2146, 0.2303, 0.1754, 0.1846, 0.1704, 0.1889, 0.1864, 0.1998, 0.1957, 0.1722, 0.1571, 0.156, 0.1531, 0.1167, 0.0706, 0.0379, 0.0145, 0.0147, 0.0452, 0.0059, 0.0412, 0.0409, 0.0804, 0.0993, 0.0782, 0.0782, 0.0737, 0.0842, 0.091, 0.0995, 0.0975, 0.0931, 0.1175, 0.1059, 0.105, 0.1196, 0.11, 0.0786, 0.0928, 0.0823, 0.0878, 0.0794, 0.0593, 0.048, 0.0637, 0.0625, 0.0413, 0.0502, 0.0821, 0.0839, 0.0891, 0.0913, 0.087, 0.0809, 0.0726, 0.0477, 0.0506, 0.0332, 0.048, 0.047, 0.039, 0.039, 0.0395, 0.0256, 0.0364, 0.0473, 0.0326, 0.0343, 0.0241, 0.0326, -0.0051, -0.0025, -0.0188, -0.0595, -0.03, -0.0295, -0.0043, -0.0016, -0.0243, -0.028, -0.028, -0.0344, -0.0526, -0.0812, -0.0724, -0.0619, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2016672996274909345", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-29T00:41:24+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "John Roque of 22V and John Karle of Nautilus Research both expect energy stocks to take off. I heartily agree.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish energy stocks, endorsing two analysts' view that the sector is set to take off.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE is the primary US energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "John Roque of 22V and John Karle of Nautilus Research both expect energy stocks to take off. I heartily agree.\nTo read more, sign up for exclusive content on my substack:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/kQy08vY5mc", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.009107132575520871, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009107132575520871, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.011095455312570501, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.011095455312570501, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0019883227370496304, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0019883227370496304, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010690885180271392, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010690885180271392, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.013673369285845727, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.013673369285845727, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0029824841055743345, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0029824841055743345, "ret_p1w": 0.03365671440664375, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03365671440664375, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05731527952014659, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05731527952014659, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02365856511350284, "bench_c_p1w": -0.02365856511350284, "ret_p1m": 0.10710746211244193, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10710746211244193, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11870621770001344, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11870621770001344, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.011598755587571508, "bench_c_p1m": -0.011598755587571508, "ret_p3m": 0.15001104071189775, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15001104071189775, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12177977534914297, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.12177977534914297, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.028231265362754776, "bench_c_p3m": 0.028231265362754776, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10710746211244193, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11870621770001344, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11870621770001344, "price_path": [-0.1349, -0.1442, -0.1419, -0.1336, -0.1211, -0.1132, -0.1016, -0.1142, -0.1119, -0.0968, -0.1133, -0.1062, -0.1178, -0.1278, -0.1223, -0.1248, -0.1303, -0.1237, -0.1237, -0.1122, -0.1037, -0.1152, -0.0987, -0.0948, -0.0986, -0.1084, -0.1029, -0.0935, -0.0978, -0.1066, -0.1129, -0.14, -0.1209, -0.1337, -0.1337, -0.1247, -0.119, -0.1216, -0.1216, -0.1249, -0.1166, -0.1099, -0.1148, -0.1148, -0.0962, -0.0717, -0.0964, -0.1065, -0.0784, -0.076, -0.0826, -0.0695, -0.0485, -0.0574, -0.0558, -0.0558, -0.0576, -0.0348, -0.0317, -0.0261, -0.0255, -0.0166, -0.0091, 0.0, 0.0107, -0.0091, 0.023, 0.0459, 0.0337, 0.0542, 0.062, 0.0608, 0.0885, 0.0687, 0.076, 0.076, 0.0641, 0.0845, 0.0925, 0.0865, 0.0919, 0.0909, 0.0863, 0.0899, 0.1071, 0.1293, 0.119, 0.1125, 0.1182, 0.12, 0.115, 0.1008, 0.1281, 0.1386, 0.1423, 0.1463, 0.1584, 0.1568, 0.1752, 0.1742, 0.1883, 0.2124, 0.207, 0.2259, 0.2467, 0.2347, 0.2208, 0.1751, 0.1807, 0.1807, 0.1893, 0.1988, 0.1568, 0.1424, 0.1347, 0.1381, 0.1149, 0.1112, 0.1275, 0.0964, 0.0974, 0.1133, 0.1267, 0.1355, 0.1333, 0.1313, 0.15, 0.1763, 0.1887, 0.1727, 0.1835, 0.1847, 0.1359, 0.1149, 0.11, 0.1393, 0.1472, 0.1484, 0.1572, 0.1845, 0.2072, 0.2214, 0.1917, 0.1783, 0.1855, 0.1855, 0.1528, 0.1357, 0.1349, 0.1217, 0.1418, 0.155, 0.1699, 0.1707, 0.1492, 0.1624, 0.1436, 0.1608, 0.1383, 0.1468, 0.107, 0.1032, 0.0894, 0.0715, 0.0715, 0.085, 0.0931, 0.0752, 0.0856, 0.0806, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2019229863341654436", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-05T02:01:29+00:00", "symbol": "NVDA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "most players (except NVIDIA) deeply loss-making", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author endorses bearish AI-boom thesis: capital misallocation 17x dot-com, loss-making players face correction; NVIDIA cited as lone exception.", "resolved_tickers": ["NVDA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is the definitive interview on AI, in my humble opinion. You owe it to your portfolio to listen in.\n\nJulien Garran presents a critical view of the AI investment boom, framing it as a capital misallocation crisis 17x larger than the dot-com bubble. \n\nThe argument is that generative AI has fundamental technical limitations—relying on correlation, not causation—which constrain its commercial usefulness. \n\nWith most players (except NVIDIA) deeply loss-making and reliant on unsustainable vendor financing, a market correction is anticipated. The macroeconomic risk is significant, potentially shaving 3-6% off GDP if the cycle reverses.\n\nhttps://t.co/mnUGjyhudc", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.013439631607399694, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.013439631607399694, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0007923925863628778, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.010946699413329375, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.012647239021036816, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0024929321940703186, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.07871771529462501, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07871771529462501, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05953292881780503, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.024711925868232454, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01918478647681998, "bench_c_p1d": 0.05400578942639256, "ret_p1w": 0.08761928024143772, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08761928024143772, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.08223273304481293, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.021909627038425583, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005386547196624791, "bench_c_p1w": 0.06570965320301214, "ret_p1m": 0.034559027309284396, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.034559027309284396, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.04229203581623664, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03589738969893075, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007733008506952244, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0013383623896463526, "ret_p3m": 0.1433012586166469, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1433012586166469, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.07227817685533311, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.22833647826957204, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07102308176131378, "bench_c_p3m": 0.37163773688621893, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.034559027309284396, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.04229203581623664, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03589738969893075, "price_path": [0.158, 0.1237, 0.1275, 0.0871, 0.1063, 0.0856, 0.0551, 0.0851, 0.0509, 0.0407, 0.062, 0.0345, 0.0487, 0.0487, 0.0297, 0.0467, 0.0557, 0.0448, 0.0669, 0.0613, 0.0795, 0.0762, 0.0692, 0.0527, 0.0183, 0.0257, 0.034, -0.0055, 0.0131, 0.053, 0.0687, 0.1008, 0.0973, 0.0973, 0.1085, 0.0951, 0.0911, 0.0851, 0.0851, 0.0987, 0.0945, 0.0894, 0.1002, 0.0766, 0.0755, 0.076, 0.081, 0.0655, 0.0883, 0.0835, 0.0835, 0.036, 0.0666, 0.0754, 0.0919, 0.0849, 0.0968, 0.1143, 0.12, 0.112, 0.0799, 0.0492, 0.0134, 0.0, 0.0787, 0.1057, 0.0969, 0.1057, 0.0876, 0.0636, 0.0636, 0.0762, 0.0937, 0.0932, 0.1044, 0.1144, 0.122, 0.1378, 0.0757, 0.0309, 0.0617, 0.0475, 0.0649, 0.0667, 0.0346, 0.0627, 0.075, 0.0824, 0.0656, 0.0488, 0.066, 0.0585, 0.0496, 0.0389, 0.0048, 0.0219, 0.0194, 0.0396, -0.0037, -0.0253, -0.039, 0.0147, 0.0226, 0.0321, 0.0321, 0.0336, 0.0362, 0.0594, 0.07, 0.0975, 0.1015, 0.1434, 0.1571, 0.1541, 0.1734, 0.1757, 0.163, 0.1782, 0.1616, 0.2118, 0.2603, 0.2403, 0.2175, 0.1612, 0.1546, 0.1548, 0.1433, 0.2092, 0.2306, 0.2521, 0.2768, 0.2846, 0.314, 0.3716, 0.311, 0.2935, 0.2836, 0.3002, 0.2772, 0.2529, 0.2529, 0.2501, 0.237, 0.2466, 0.2285, 0.3054, 0.2964, 0.2495, 0.2737, 0.1947, 0.2154, 0.2127, 0.1675, 0.1934, 0.1953, 0.2375, 0.2082, 0.1921, 0.2273, 0.2273, 0.2154, 0.1653, 0.1592, 0.1402, 0.1215, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2020520178778296416", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-08T15:28:44+00:00", "symbol": "AI sector", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The stocks are priced like it already delivered and exceeded expectations. It hasn't.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish on AI-sector stocks over the next year; Super Bowl ad dominance signals peak euphoria, not peak fundamentals, with underperformance ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["AIQ", "BOTZ", "ARKQ"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Broad AI sector; AIQ is primary AI-themed ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "WELCOME TO THE AI BOWL\n\nAnd if you've seen this movie before, you already know how it ends.\n\nTonight, while 130 million Americans watch the Seahawks and Patriots, they'll also witness something that should make every serious investor deeply uncomfortable:\n\nThe single largest concentration of AI advertising in television history.\n\n16 tech companies bought Super Bowl ads this year. \n\nOpenAI, Google, Amazon, Meta, Anthropic, Genspark, Base44, Rippling, Ramp - and more. \n\nTech ad spending is DOUBLE what it was during the 2022 \"Crypto Bowl,\" the last time NBC broadcast the game.\n\nAt $8-10 million per 30 second spot, plus production costs pushing all-in budgets north of $20 million per ad, hundreds of millions of dollars are being spent tonight by companies trying to convince you their AI product will change your life.\n\nI've been in markets for 45 years. \n\nWhen an entire sector floods the most expensive advertising real estate on the planet, it's not a signal to buy. It's a signal to think VERY carefully about what comes next.\n\nMy friend @DougKass has been beating this drum for years with his \"Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator\".\n\nThe more intensely a single sector dominates Super Bowl advertising, the more likely those stocks underperform in the year ahead. \n\nDoug's been right far more often than he's been wrong on this one.\n\nBecause we've seen this exact playbook twice before...\n\n2000: The Dot-Com Bowl. 14 internet startups bought Super Bowl ads at $2.2M per spot. Pets .com spent $1.2M on its famous sock puppet commercial. \n\nWithin 10 months it was dead - stock went from $11 to zero. \n\n8 of 11 startups that advertised were bankrupt or sold in fire sales within a year.\n\n2022: The Crypto Bowl. FTX, Coinbase, Crypto .com, and eToro collectively spent $54 million on Super Bowl ads. \n\nLarry David told 100M viewers \"Don't miss out on crypto.\" \n\n9 months later, FTX was bankrupt. \n\nBankman-Fried is now in prison. \n\nCoinbase shares fell 70% within a year. \n\nBy the next Super Bowl, crypto had \"zero representation.\"\n\nNow 2026: The AI Bowl.\n\nAnd the parallels are impossible to ignore.\n\nThe Duke CFO Survey tells us the vast majority of CFOs report \"no change\" in productivity, decision-making, or customer satisfaction from AI investments over the past 12 months. \n\nUS tech giants spent $380 BILLION on AI infrastructure in 2025. Goldman Sachs says measurable GDP impact doesn't start until 2027.\n\nThe companies SELLING AI tools are getting rich. The companies BUYING them can't measure the returns. \n\nAnd tonight, the sellers are spending record sums to convince even more buyers to pile in.\n\nThe data on Super Bowl advertisers as investments is damning. \n\nBridgewise found that after 6 months, companies running Super Bowl ads trailed the S&P 500 by an average of 9.2%. \n\nOnly 25% outperformed the index at 6 months.\n\nNow look at who's advertising tonight: \n\nOpenAI and Anthropic are pre-IPO companies burning billions in cash, racing to prove they can monetize before capital markets demand accountability. \n\nGenspark and Base44 are startups most Americans have never heard of, spending $8-10M per spot to introduce themselves.\n\nThe real rivalry tonight isn't Seattle vs. New England. \n\nIt's Anthropic vs. OpenAI, fighting for \"mindshare and legitimacy as both prepare for massive IPOs.\" \n\nThat's a NARRATIVE CAMPAIGN to justify valuations before public markets scrutinize the books.\n\nEvery bubble has a moment where the hype sector dominates the Super Bowl. \n\nDot-coms in 2000. Crypto in 2022. AI in 2026.\n\nPeak advertising spend correlates with peak euphoria, not peak fundamentals.\n\nDot-com companies told you to click. \nCrypto companies told you not to miss out. \nAI companies are telling you the future is here.\n\nThe future may well arrive. But the stocks are priced like it already delivered and exceeded expectations.\n\nIt hasn't.\n\nEnjoy the game tonight. \n\nBut the best contrarian indicator in markets isn't some fancy algorithm.\n\nIt's a $10 million Super Bowl ad.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR77rB", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01982044063046351, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01982044063046351, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.015021851399781627, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015021851399781627, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0030904562673648903, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0030904562673648903, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0004533984966654434, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0004533984966654434, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "ret_p1w": -0.018917133436704054, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.018917133436704054, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0013366304044943496, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0013366304044943496, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "bench_c_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "ret_p1m": -0.038144540717741315, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.038144540717741315, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.013978555332261666, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.013978555332261666, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "ret_p3m": 0.08595342507908921, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.08595342507908921, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.02884844482076998, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.02884844482076998, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.038144540717741315, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.013978555332261666, "alpha_c_stated": 0.013978555332261666, "price_path": [-0.0449, -0.0786, -0.0799, -0.0964, -0.1097, -0.1079, -0.1354, -0.1281, -0.1025, -0.0937, -0.0837, -0.0837, -0.0759, -0.0791, -0.0765, -0.062, -0.043, -0.041, -0.0394, -0.0376, -0.0314, -0.0308, -0.0508, -0.0608, -0.0624, -0.0855, -0.069, -0.0468, -0.0306, -0.0293, -0.0291, -0.0291, -0.0346, -0.0363, -0.0386, -0.0471, -0.0471, -0.0292, -0.0039, 0.0097, 0.0079, 0.0066, 0.0201, 0.0316, 0.021, 0.0235, 0.0276, 0.0323, 0.0323, 0.0004, 0.0134, 0.0208, 0.0183, 0.0122, 0.0261, 0.028, 0.0169, -0.0059, -0.0109, -0.009, -0.041, -0.0641, -0.0198, 0.0, -0.0031, -0.0099, -0.0271, -0.0189, -0.0189, -0.0189, -0.0122, -0.004, -0.002, -0.0195, -0.0052, 0.0076, 0.0055, -0.0062, -0.0109, -0.0384, -0.0242, -0.0356, -0.0492, -0.0366, -0.0381, -0.0348, -0.0567, -0.069, -0.0523, -0.044, -0.0609, -0.0611, -0.093, -0.0727, -0.0849, -0.0712, -0.1042, -0.1272, -0.1457, -0.1068, -0.091, -0.0948, -0.0948, -0.0872, -0.0899, -0.0516, -0.0592, -0.052, -0.0331, -0.0143, 0.0001, 0.0102, 0.0244, 0.0236, 0.0128, 0.0328, 0.0111, 0.0291, 0.0431, 0.0216, 0.0126, 0.0425, 0.05, 0.0482, 0.0582, 0.0976, 0.086, 0.1269, 0.1354, 0.1137, 0.1318, 0.132, 0.1005, 0.0936, 0.0782, 0.1015, 0.1094, 0.1237, 0.1237, 0.1537, 0.1463, 0.1667, 0.1695, 0.1795, 0.1896, 0.172, 0.165, 0.0841, 0.1051, 0.0832, 0.0474, 0.0888, 0.0857, 0.1263, 0.1043, 0.0974, 0.125, 0.125, 0.1182, 0.0692, 0.0633, 0.0678, 0.0551, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007610614148190378", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-04T00:30:44+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Buying the stock under $2 trillion is a steal.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses TSLA as undervalued; buying under $2T market cap is a steal given energy, autonomy, AI, and robotics growth ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "“Buying the stock under $2 trillion is a steal.”  Everyone got that? @BradMunchen", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "With a market cap of $1.4 trillion, $TSLA is still massively undervalued when you look at the wave of energy, autonomous growth, manufacturing, AI and robotics that is coming. \n\nLonger term, Tesla will be much larger than people think or can even imagine. \n\nFor many years while https://t.co/nIh7Wwx9wL", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2034666893961822533", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-19T16:22:44+00:00", "symbol": "FRPT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$FRPT stock is headed to $20 IMHO.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish FRPT to $20 on Blue Buffalo undercutting FRPT pricing at Costco/Walmart/Target.", "resolved_tickers": ["FRPT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLP", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Packaged Foods'", "bench_c_industry": "Packaged Foods", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$FRPT stock is headed to $20 IMHO.\n\nTom Chanos called it last week. \n\nWatch the replays for more alpha:\n\nhttps://t.co/xnnGEswQJC", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 Thanks George. I checked Costco last night, Blue Buffalo LOWERED their prices 14%, from $2.75/lb to $2.37 vs FRPT @ $2.87.  So BB is now 21% cheaper at Costco and much cheaper than at Walmart/Target.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.030552483158446275, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.030552483158446275, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.02808201393761922, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.022378757006217054, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002470469220827054, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008173726152229221, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0216875540017909, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0216875540017909, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.036023250268643614, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.029983332334673096, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.014335696266852715, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008295778332882198, "ret_p1w": -0.06933666899441504, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06933666899441504, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04971222495461147, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0647826617998396, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019624444039803568, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004554007194575438, "ret_p1m": 0.10020582578022852, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.10020582578022852, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02097048924494138, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08856572344866431, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.07923533653528714, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011640102331564206, "ret_p3m": -0.09624819047954913, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.09624819047954913, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.23656228648496835, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.14628788806911763, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.14031409600541922, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0500396975895685, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.10020582578022852, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02097048924494138, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08856572344866431, "price_path": [0.0127, 0.0212, 0.0135, 0.0135, 0.0158, -0.0021, -0.0481, -0.0355, -0.0355, -0.0478, -0.048, -0.0139, -0.0174, -0.0196, 0.0141, 0.0155, 0.0092, 0.0005, 0.0014, 0.0171, 0.0171, 0.0712, 0.1059, 0.1493, 0.1327, 0.1415, 0.1398, 0.1319, 0.1143, 0.1034, 0.1083, 0.1064, 0.0955, 0.0665, 0.1065, 0.1069, 0.0983, 0.0847, 0.0747, 0.072, 0.072, 0.1349, 0.1551, 0.182, 0.1795, 0.2439, 0.2805, 0.2606, 0.2864, 0.3369, 0.3354, 0.3315, 0.3535, 0.3486, 0.3082, 0.3112, 0.2948, 0.2716, 0.2354, 0.2126, 0.1931, 0.0673, 0.0306, 0.0, 0.0217, 0.0239, -0.0671, -0.0486, -0.0693, -0.1146, -0.104, -0.0666, -0.0489, -0.0597, -0.0597, -0.0659, -0.0021, 0.0294, 0.0548, 0.0258, 0.0804, 0.094, 0.089, 0.066, 0.1002, 0.0784, 0.0263, 0.0442, 0.0378, 0.0472, 0.0361, 0.0393, 0.047, 0.0666, 0.0313, 0.0062, -0.0475, -0.1305, -0.1156, -0.1597, -0.2142, -0.1884, -0.2302, -0.2189, -0.2188, -0.233, -0.2498, -0.2346, -0.1879, -0.1835, -0.1835, -0.1927, -0.1716, -0.1596, -0.1832, -0.2177, -0.2107, -0.2085, -0.2208, -0.2126, -0.1863, -0.1903, -0.199, -0.1733, -0.1664, -0.1374, -0.0962, -0.1189, -0.1292, -0.1292, -0.1939, -0.1551, -0.1651, -0.155, -0.0909, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007891141522567415", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-04T19:05:27+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I remain short $TSLA", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Remains short TSLA; chart rolling over, relative strength failing, multiple negative catalysts ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I prefer my chart. $TSLA chart starting to roll and relative strength failing. I forsee a bunch of negative catalysts. I remain short $ TSLA. https://t.co/6jyqlFo63S", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$TSLA multi-year cup &amp; handle with breakout above the neckline\n\nBullish https://t.co/BpwDb8wMRT", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2027113434567860491", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-26T20:07:59+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The stock also remains wildly expensive, selling on 14x revenues (ignore gross value of homes) and 5x book. $OPEN has lost money. EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. SELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: asset-heavy low-margin model, wildly expensive at 14x revenues/5x book, cumulative $4B losses — explicit sell call.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN has much bigger problems than the speed with which they turn over homes.\n\nInstead they remain trapped in the asset  heavy, low margin, cut throat business of flipping homes. \n\nThe stock also remains wildly expensive, selling on 14x revenues (ignore gross value of homes) and 5x book. \n\nAnyone who disagrees with these FACTS is a financially illiterate bag holder.\n\n$OPEN has lost money.\n\nEVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.\n\n@ericjackson belongs in jail.\n\n@rabois is a liar. Ignore him.\n\nThe vast majority of the cumulative losses of $4b occurred under the leadership of @rabois. Never forget this. \n\nSELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "The biggest risk in Opendoor’s model was never buying homes.\n\nIt was holding them too long.\n\nThat’s where companies died.\n\nAnd Opendoor just proved they solved it.\n\nThey cut homes sitting over 120 days from 51% → 33% in ONE quarter.\nTheir newest cohorts are turning 2x faster https://t.co/Pzn8jrH3gC", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.07948241043746329, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.07948241043746329, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.08506788020452583, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.07512752423845515, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0043548861990081456, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0018484711948041355, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0018484711948041355, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006650412053415433, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0029646698603202903, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": 0.004813141055124426, "ret_p1w": -0.042513867940958905, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.042513867940958905, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.030922411414840534, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03586699712638586, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": -0.006646870814573047, "ret_p1m": -0.11275409868431718, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.11275409868431718, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.035170672038761785, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.035947263983174604, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": -0.07680683470114258, "ret_p3m": -0.17190385481868198, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17190385481868198, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2637941169750635, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.20354519389957249, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.03164133908089051, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.11275409868431718, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.035170672038761785, "alpha_c_stated": 0.035947263983174604, "price_path": [0.3198, 0.2921, 0.2828, 0.4011, 0.3216, 0.3031, 0.3697, 0.2939, 0.3031, 0.2126, 0.1959, 0.244, 0.1312, 0.1608, 0.1756, 0.1867, 0.159, 0.1608, 0.1608, 0.1109, 0.0776, 0.0795, 0.0776, 0.0776, 0.122, 0.1682, 0.281, 0.1312, 0.1885, 0.3475, 0.2976, 0.2514, 0.2274, 0.1645, 0.2329, 0.2329, 0.1811, 0.1978, 0.1867, 0.1109, 0.085, 0.0739, 0.0647, 0.0314, -0.0481, -0.1091, -0.0518, -0.0758, -0.1312, -0.098, -0.0869, -0.1331, -0.1201, -0.1904, -0.1784, -0.1784, -0.1996, -0.1442, -0.1405, -0.0758, -0.1165, -0.0555, -0.0795, 0.0, 0.0018, -0.0665, -0.0813, -0.098, -0.0425, -0.0758, -0.061, -0.0739, -0.0259, -0.1054, -0.085, -0.0425, 0.0277, -0.024, -0.0499, -0.0924, -0.037, -0.0425, -0.0573, -0.0943, -0.1128, -0.1811, -0.1349, -0.1553, -0.1238, -0.1238, -0.1479, -0.159, -0.1423, -0.2033, -0.2015, -0.1941, -0.1664, -0.1091, -0.0259, -0.0222, -0.0111, 0.0074, 0.0037, -0.0351, 0.0185, -0.0037, 0.0129, 0.0314, -0.0055, 0.0055, -0.0518, -0.0333, 0.0092, -0.0166, -0.0739, -0.1035, -0.1294, -0.1534, -0.1738, -0.1904, -0.2089, -0.2052, -0.1867, -0.1553, -0.1627, -0.1627, -0.1719, -0.122, -0.0628, -0.0684, -0.0185, 0.0, -0.0998, -0.085, -0.183, -0.2033, -0.1978, -0.1719, -0.1738, -0.1793, -0.1479, -0.122, -0.1774, -0.1738, -0.1738, -0.2089, -0.2237, -0.2089, -0.2052, -0.1922, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2013997737348415710", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-21T15:30:53+00:00", "symbol": "Gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Buying precious metals. Gold just hit $4,800 and silver touched $95 because smart money sees what's coming", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long gold/silver, short bonds (yields rising further), reduce S&P equity risk on Japan contagion + 39 CAPE valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "JAPAN'S BOND MARKET IS SENDING A WARNING\n\nAnd most investors have no idea what it means for their portfolio.\n\nLet me explain:\n\nOn Tuesday, Japan's 40-year bond yield smashed through 4% for the first time in history.\n\nThe 30-year hit 3.7%. The 20-year reached 3.5%. The 10-year touched 2.38% - highest since 1999.\n\nThe single-day moves on 30 and 40-year JGBs? Over 25 basis points.\n\nThat's the biggest spike since Trump's Liberation Day tariffs whiplashed global markets last April.\n\nBut this time, Japan is LEADING the selloff, not following.\n\nHere's why this matters for your portfolio:\n\nJapan's bond market isn't some isolated backwater. It's the third-largest debt market on the planet at $7.4T.\n\n\"What happens in Japan does not stay in Japan.\"\n\nWithin hours of Japan's meltdown, the US 30-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points to 4.93%. The UK, Canada, Germany - all saw yields spike in sympathy.\n\nThe trigger? Prime Minister Takaichi announced a snap election and proposed tax cuts that spooked bond vigilantes.\n\nBut here's what the mainstream is missing:\n\nThis isn't about one election. This is about 3 decades of impossible math catching up to Japan.\n\nJapan's debt-to-GDP sits at 235%. Highest of any advanced economy. Higher than Greece at its worst.\n\nFor decades, the Bank of Japan kept yields near zero by buying any bond that moved. They called it Yield Curve Control.\n\nThat game is OVER.\n\nThe BOJ abandoned YCC in March 2024. They ended negative rates. They raised to 0.75% in December - highest since 1995. Governor Ueda just said he'll \"keep raising rates.\"\n\nMeanwhile, Japanese inflation has run above the BOJ's 2% target for 43 straight months.\n\nWhen you owe 235% of GDP, every 1% rise in interest rates is an existential threat to your budget.\n\nBut the contagion risk is what should terrify you...\n\nJapan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries at $1.2 trillion.\n\nJapanese life insurers manage over $2.6 trillion in assets. Much of that is parked in foreign bonds.\n\nWhen Japanese yields rise, the incentive to \"reach for yield\" overseas disappears.\n\nJapanese insurers have \"reached a turning point\" and are retreating from foreign debt.\n\nRemember August 2024?\n\nThe BOJ raised rates and the Nasdaq crashed 13% in less than a month as the yen carry trade unwound.\n\nThat was just a taste.\n\nThe BIS estimates roughly $250B in yen carry trades existed going into that volatility event. Deutsche Bank pegged it closer to $500B.\n\nWhen those trades unwind, investors sell US assets to repay yen loans. The correlation is brutal.\n\nAnd here's the bigger picture:\n\nIf Japan - the poster child for \"debt doesn't matter\" - suddenly faces real borrowing costs, what does that signal for every other indebted nation?\n\nThe US is at 120% debt-to-GDP. Italy, France, the UK - all running massive deficits.\n\nInvestors are asking: \"If Japan pays 4% on 40-year debt, what should the US pay?\"\n\nThat's how a \"local\" tantrum becomes a global repricing of sovereign risk.\n\nWe saw this movie in the UK in 2022. Truss announced unfunded tax cuts. Gilt yields exploded. The Bank of England intervened within days. Truss was gone in 44 days.\n\nThere are striking similarities between Japan and the UK situation.\n\nThe difference? Japan's debt pile is 2.5x larger relative to GDP.\n\n“How did you go bankrupt? \nTwo ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”\n\nHere's what I'm doing:\n\n- Buying precious metals. Gold just hit $4,800 and silver touched $95 because smart money sees what's coming.\n\n- Selling bonds. Most investors will be shocked by how much further yields can rise. This repricing has legs.\n\n- Reducing risk in equity portfolios. The S&P 500 trades at a Shiller CAPE near 39 - second highest ever - during a midterm year when markets historically struggle.\n\nAdd Japan's bond crisis to an already fragile equity market, and the risk/reward for staying fully invested looks terrible.\n\nJapan's bond market is the canary in the coal mine for global sovereign debt.\n\nThat canary just stopped breathing.\n\n---\n\nThis clip is from a month-old 90 min interview where I called the exact situation we’re seeing with Japan.\n\nWant the full breakdown, how it lines up with what’s coming next, and how to make money from it?\n\nSign up to my Substack - I’ll share it there soon:\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.014359772383999991, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.014359772383999991, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.002950340601383439, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.002950340601383439, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.011409431782616553, "bench_c_m1d": -0.011409431782616553, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01846258414950319, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01846258414950319, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.013239326476788715, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.013239326476788715, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005223257672714476, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005223257672714476, "ret_p1w": 0.11487824786726097, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11487824786726097, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.10025912446857066, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10025912446857066, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014619123398690315, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014619123398690315, "ret_p1m": 0.03597833912417436, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03597833912417436, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03732065681283114, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03732065681283114, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00134231768865678, "bench_c_p1m": -0.00134231768865678, "ret_p3m": -0.0034039895059708725, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0034039895059708725, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.040251747010022654, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.040251747010022654, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.03684775750405178, "bench_c_p3m": 0.03684775750405178, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03597833912417436, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03732065681283114, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03732065681283114, "price_path": [-0.149, -0.1727, -0.1786, -0.1817, -0.1656, -0.1702, -0.1687, -0.1832, -0.1738, -0.1748, -0.1697, -0.147, -0.1437, -0.1299, -0.1369, -0.1525, -0.1622, -0.1561, -0.1547, -0.155, -0.1563, -0.1429, -0.1432, -0.1363, -0.1363, -0.1256, -0.1214, -0.1271, -0.1279, -0.1273, -0.1289, -0.1312, -0.1267, -0.123, -0.1135, -0.1086, -0.1078, -0.1076, -0.0999, -0.1015, -0.1005, -0.0797, -0.0675, -0.0714, -0.0714, -0.0606, -0.1014, -0.1008, -0.1066, -0.1066, -0.1022, -0.0785, -0.0686, -0.0775, -0.0724, -0.0657, -0.0482, -0.0495, -0.0398, -0.0457, -0.0503, -0.0503, -0.0144, 0.0, 0.0185, 0.0325, 0.0476, 0.0733, 0.1149, 0.1179, 0.003, -0.0371, 0.0241, 0.0234, -0.0039, 0.0267, 0.0528, 0.0424, 0.0542, 0.0176, 0.0429, 0.0429, 0.0104, 0.0331, 0.036, 0.0564, 0.0849, 0.0699, 0.0672, 0.0764, 0.0905, 0.1046, 0.0553, 0.0636, 0.0508, 0.0674, 0.0652, 0.0772, 0.0736, 0.0525, 0.0389, 0.0379, 0.0353, 0.0026, -0.0388, -0.0681, -0.0892, -0.089, -0.0616, -0.0968, -0.0651, -0.0654, -0.03, -0.013, -0.032, -0.032, -0.036, -0.0266, -0.0204, -0.0128, -0.0146, -0.0186, 0.0034, -0.0071, -0.0079, 0.0053, -0.0034, -0.0316, -0.0188, -0.0283, -0.0233, -0.0309, -0.0489, -0.059, -0.045, -0.046, -0.0651, -0.0571, -0.0285, -0.0269, -0.0222, -0.0202, -0.0241, -0.0295, -0.0369, -0.0593, -0.0567, -0.0724, -0.0591, -0.06, -0.0671, -0.0671, -0.0667, -0.0791, -0.0695, -0.0597, -0.0729, -0.0713, -0.0805, -0.0729, -0.1068, -0.1044, -0.1191, -0.1556, -0.1291, -0.1286, -0.1061, -0.1036, -0.124, -0.1273, -0.1273, -0.133, -0.1494, -0.1751, -0.1671, -0.1577, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2013997737348415710", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-21T15:30:53+00:00", "symbol": "Silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Buying precious metals. Gold just hit $4,800 and silver touched $95 because smart money sees what's coming", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long gold/silver, short bonds (yields rising further), reduce S&P equity risk on Japan contagion + 39 CAPE valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Silver commodity; SLV is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "JAPAN'S BOND MARKET IS SENDING A WARNING\n\nAnd most investors have no idea what it means for their portfolio.\n\nLet me explain:\n\nOn Tuesday, Japan's 40-year bond yield smashed through 4% for the first time in history.\n\nThe 30-year hit 3.7%. The 20-year reached 3.5%. The 10-year touched 2.38% - highest since 1999.\n\nThe single-day moves on 30 and 40-year JGBs? Over 25 basis points.\n\nThat's the biggest spike since Trump's Liberation Day tariffs whiplashed global markets last April.\n\nBut this time, Japan is LEADING the selloff, not following.\n\nHere's why this matters for your portfolio:\n\nJapan's bond market isn't some isolated backwater. It's the third-largest debt market on the planet at $7.4T.\n\n\"What happens in Japan does not stay in Japan.\"\n\nWithin hours of Japan's meltdown, the US 30-year Treasury yield jumped 9 basis points to 4.93%. The UK, Canada, Germany - all saw yields spike in sympathy.\n\nThe trigger? Prime Minister Takaichi announced a snap election and proposed tax cuts that spooked bond vigilantes.\n\nBut here's what the mainstream is missing:\n\nThis isn't about one election. This is about 3 decades of impossible math catching up to Japan.\n\nJapan's debt-to-GDP sits at 235%. Highest of any advanced economy. Higher than Greece at its worst.\n\nFor decades, the Bank of Japan kept yields near zero by buying any bond that moved. They called it Yield Curve Control.\n\nThat game is OVER.\n\nThe BOJ abandoned YCC in March 2024. They ended negative rates. They raised to 0.75% in December - highest since 1995. Governor Ueda just said he'll \"keep raising rates.\"\n\nMeanwhile, Japanese inflation has run above the BOJ's 2% target for 43 straight months.\n\nWhen you owe 235% of GDP, every 1% rise in interest rates is an existential threat to your budget.\n\nBut the contagion risk is what should terrify you...\n\nJapan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries at $1.2 trillion.\n\nJapanese life insurers manage over $2.6 trillion in assets. Much of that is parked in foreign bonds.\n\nWhen Japanese yields rise, the incentive to \"reach for yield\" overseas disappears.\n\nJapanese insurers have \"reached a turning point\" and are retreating from foreign debt.\n\nRemember August 2024?\n\nThe BOJ raised rates and the Nasdaq crashed 13% in less than a month as the yen carry trade unwound.\n\nThat was just a taste.\n\nThe BIS estimates roughly $250B in yen carry trades existed going into that volatility event. Deutsche Bank pegged it closer to $500B.\n\nWhen those trades unwind, investors sell US assets to repay yen loans. The correlation is brutal.\n\nAnd here's the bigger picture:\n\nIf Japan - the poster child for \"debt doesn't matter\" - suddenly faces real borrowing costs, what does that signal for every other indebted nation?\n\nThe US is at 120% debt-to-GDP. Italy, France, the UK - all running massive deficits.\n\nInvestors are asking: \"If Japan pays 4% on 40-year debt, what should the US pay?\"\n\nThat's how a \"local\" tantrum becomes a global repricing of sovereign risk.\n\nWe saw this movie in the UK in 2022. Truss announced unfunded tax cuts. Gilt yields exploded. The Bank of England intervened within days. Truss was gone in 44 days.\n\nThere are striking similarities between Japan and the UK situation.\n\nThe difference? Japan's debt pile is 2.5x larger relative to GDP.\n\n“How did you go bankrupt? \nTwo ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”\n\nHere's what I'm doing:\n\n- Buying precious metals. Gold just hit $4,800 and silver touched $95 because smart money sees what's coming.\n\n- Selling bonds. Most investors will be shocked by how much further yields can rise. This repricing has legs.\n\n- Reducing risk in equity portfolios. 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{"unit_id": "quote:2005745930008670238", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-29T21:01:09+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "👇CAR CRASH INBOUND $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bearish TSLA view on collapsing Q4 sales; 'car crash inbound' signals imminent decline.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "👇CAR CRASH INBOUND $TSLA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "your Q4 sales are about to go down from 495K quite likely to 400K. Like -25% YoY. Your only hope is to make an “unsupervised robotaxi” demo  show to disguise this disaster and you still dont do it. How bad is the softwate Tesla? $tsla", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.011464960624580467, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.011464960624580467, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010242253825026637, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.007393843971804648, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004071116652775819, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010364613980130777, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010364613980130777, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0029557610112932453, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0024716664837826086, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007892947496348168, "ret_p1w": -0.04724600393183376, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04724600393183376, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05423284889279023, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05314498316467742, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00589897923284366, "ret_p1m": -0.050546842397991454, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.050546842397991454, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06278828992564967, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06226168437993651, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011714841981945057, "ret_p3m": -0.20377177474195074, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20377177474195074, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12926302332297668, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08356815590370792, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.12020361883824282, "ret_p6m": -0.1736240898887511, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1736240898887511, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2465876221448997, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13350205757998646, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": -0.040122032308764655, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.050546842397991454, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06278828992564967, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06226168437993651, "price_path": [-0.0406, -0.0541, -0.0026, -0.047, -0.0346, -0.0416, -0.0901, -0.0408, -0.0554, -0.0424, -0.0565, -0.0333, -0.0154, -0.026, -0.034, -0.012, -0.0456, -0.0044, 0.0135, 0.0156, -0.0315, 0.0047, 0.0307, -0.0224, 0.0168, -0.0187, -0.0548, -0.0202, -0.0326, -0.0524, -0.1154, -0.1102, -0.1001, -0.117, -0.111, -0.1303, -0.1394, -0.0807, -0.0771, -0.0613, -0.0613, -0.0534, -0.0535, -0.0554, -0.0169, 0.0002, 0.0013, -0.0327, -0.0204, -0.0066, -0.0166, 0.01, 0.0459, 0.078, 0.0282, 0.0637, 0.0589, 0.0755, 0.0685, 0.0682, 0.0682, 0.0457, 0.0115, 0.0, -0.0104, -0.0104, -0.036, -0.0061, -0.0472, -0.0507, -0.041, -0.0207, -0.012, -0.0159, -0.0335, -0.0349, -0.0373, -0.0373, -0.0774, -0.0506, -0.0112, -0.0118, -0.0423, -0.0518, -0.0505, -0.0833, -0.0529, -0.0718, -0.0715, -0.1066, -0.1259, -0.0953, -0.0817, -0.0643, -0.0576, -0.0822, -0.0814, -0.0814, -0.0964, -0.0949, -0.094, -0.0938, -0.1202, -0.0991, -0.0815, -0.1009, -0.1143, -0.1125, -0.1364, -0.1067, -0.1076, -0.127, -0.1227, -0.1214, -0.1026, -0.1308, -0.1391, -0.1295, -0.1214, -0.1357, -0.1631, -0.1903, -0.1619, -0.1571, -0.1507, -0.1812, -0.2038, -0.2182, -0.1819, -0.161, -0.2065, -0.2065, -0.2236, -0.2372, -0.2447, -0.2394, -0.2321, -0.2245, -0.1986, -0.1375, -0.1442, -0.1184, -0.1363, -0.1497, -0.1473, -0.1776, -0.1719, -0.1667, -0.1725, -0.1796, -0.1602, -0.14, -0.1363, -0.1432, -0.1226, -0.0938, -0.0574, -0.0208, -0.0462, -0.0202, -0.0245, -0.0708, -0.0978, -0.1107, -0.0818, -0.0805, -0.0625, -0.0625, -0.0459, -0.031, -0.0271, -0.041, -0.0848, -0.0675, -0.0676, -0.0792, -0.1396, -0.1001, -0.1271, -0.1603, -0.1216, -0.1056, -0.0952, -0.1095, -0.1277, -0.1187, -0.1187, -0.1087, -0.1602, -0.1736]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2008710585555579231", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-07T01:21:38+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is very expensive and already assumes a big turnaround. SELL is not a four letter word.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: expensive valuation already prices in a big turnaround; author explicitly says sell.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN is very expensive and already assumes a big turnaround.\nSELL is not a four letter word.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "When you strip out the story and look at the numbers, Opendoor’s valuation raises hard questions. @gnoble79 walks through the math.\n\n#Opendoor #Valuation #Investing #StockMarket https://t.co/msViSXf7zU", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.13235293430165562, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.13235293430165562, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.12911909803291355, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.11840174695383077, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003233836268742074, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013951187347824856, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05065358636869011, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05065358636869011, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.05075511368296337, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04317979804717553, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00010152731427326422, "bench_c_p1d": 0.007473788321514574, "ret_p1w": 0.08496731873370122, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08496731873370122, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0838362813176381, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05382638929281036, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0011310374160631298, "bench_c_p1w": 0.031140929440890863, "ret_p1m": -0.23202616059595293, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.23202616059595293, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.21468225216807357, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2591810502963142, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.017343908427879362, "bench_c_p1m": 0.027154889700361284, "ret_p3m": -0.24673199024197923, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.24673199024197923, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2048942835669365, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2940832585826262, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04183770667504272, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04735126834064696, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.23202616059595293, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.21468225216807357, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2591810502963142, "price_path": [0.2369, 0.1879, 0.2484, 0.2059, 0.1618, 0.1699, 0.2042, 0.1373, 0.1144, 0.1487, 0.3023, 0.3333, 0.3023, 0.25, 0.1993, 0.2696, 0.2402, 0.1307, 0.1814, 0.0719, 0.0719, 0.3023, 0.3856, 0.531, 0.3987, 0.3268, 0.281, 0.2288, 0.0931, 0.0065, 0.1029, 0.2565, 0.2647, 0.2712, 0.2712, 0.2582, 0.1667, 0.1422, 0.134, 0.2386, 0.1683, 0.152, 0.2108, 0.1438, 0.152, 0.0719, 0.0572, 0.0997, 0.0, 0.0261, 0.0392, 0.049, 0.0245, 0.0261, 0.0261, -0.018, -0.0474, -0.0458, -0.0474, -0.0474, -0.0082, 0.0327, 0.1324, 0.0, 0.0507, 0.1912, 0.1471, 0.1062, 0.085, 0.0294, 0.0899, 0.0899, 0.0441, 0.0588, 0.049, -0.018, -0.0408, -0.0507, -0.0588, -0.0882, -0.1585, -0.2124, -0.1618, -0.183, -0.232, -0.2026, -0.1928, -0.2337, -0.2222, -0.2843, -0.2737, -0.2737, -0.2925, -0.2435, -0.2402, -0.183, -0.219, -0.165, -0.1863, -0.116, -0.1144, -0.1748, -0.1879, -0.2026, -0.1536, -0.183, -0.1699, -0.1814, -0.1389, -0.2092, -0.1912, -0.1536, -0.0915, -0.1373, -0.1601, -0.1977, -0.1487, -0.1536, -0.1667, -0.1993, -0.2157, -0.2761, -0.2353, -0.2533, -0.2255, -0.2255, -0.2467, -0.2565, -0.2418, -0.2958, -0.2941, -0.2876, -0.2631, -0.2124, -0.1389, -0.1356, -0.1258, -0.1095, -0.1127, -0.1471, -0.0997, -0.1193, -0.1046, -0.0882, -0.1209, -0.1111, -0.1618, -0.1454, -0.1078, -0.1307, -0.1814, -0.2075, -0.2304, -0.2516, -0.2696, -0.2843, -0.3007, -0.2974, -0.281, -0.2533, -0.2598, -0.2598, -0.268, -0.2239, -0.1716, -0.1765, -0.1324, -0.116, -0.2042, -0.1912, -0.2778, -0.2958, -0.2908, -0.268, -0.2696, -0.2745, -0.2467, -0.2239, -0.2729, -0.2696, -0.2696, -0.3007, -0.3137, -0.3007, -0.2974, -0.2859, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2046328583782642170", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-20T20:42:07+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Earnings estimates have collapsed by 80% and auto deliveries will fall again in 2026 for the third consecutive year. $TSLA epitomizes everything that is wrong with markets today.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: earnings estimates down 80%, deliveries declining third consecutive year, stock overvalued vs fundamentals.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$600?\nBased on what, exactly?\nI will wait.\n\n---\n\n$TSLA is flat and has massively underperformed the last four years.\nEarnings estimates have collapsed by 80% and auto deliveries will fall again in 2026 for the third consecutive year.\n\n$TSLA epitomizes everything that is wrong with markets today. https://t.co/yBK4FzppC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.015734139953914816, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.015734139953914816, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.009144102838512858, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008169220796639065, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007564919157275751, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0028207553957204645, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0028207553957204645, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.007305956699398486, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00315700972299493, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0003362543272744656, "ret_p1w": -0.02691378306679615, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02691378306679615, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03772213922516732, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.010439055956170562, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "bench_c_p1w": -0.016474727110625587, "ret_p1m": 0.07980952141770503, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07980952141770503, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02701726207138977, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08846718681798293, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "bench_c_p1m": -0.008657665400277903, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.1629, 0.1621, 0.1262, 0.1151, 0.1166, 0.078, 0.1138, 0.0916, 0.092, 0.0507, 0.0279, 0.0639, 0.08, 0.1004, 0.1083, 0.0793, 0.0803, 0.0803, 0.0627, 0.0644, 0.0654, 0.0657, 0.0347, 0.0594, 0.0802, 0.0573, 0.0416, 0.0437, 0.0156, 0.0505, 0.0495, 0.0267, 0.0317, 0.0332, 0.0554, 0.0222, 0.0124, 0.0237, 0.0333, 0.0165, -0.0158, -0.0478, -0.0144, -0.0088, -0.0012, -0.037, -0.0636, -0.0806, -0.038, -0.0134, -0.0668, -0.0668, -0.087, -0.1029, -0.1117, -0.1056, -0.097, -0.088, -0.0575, 0.0143, 0.0064, 0.0367, 0.0157, 0.0, 0.0028, -0.0329, -0.0262, -0.0201, -0.0269, -0.0352, -0.0124, 0.0114, 0.0158, 0.0076, 0.0319, 0.0657, 0.1085, 0.1516, 0.1217, 0.1523, 0.1472, 0.0927, 0.061, 0.0458, 0.0798, 0.0813, 0.1025, 0.1025, 0.1221, 0.1396, 0.1441, 0.1278, 0.0762, 0.0966, 0.0965, 0.0829, 0.0119, 0.0583, 0.0266, -0.0125, 0.0329, 0.0518, 0.064, 0.0472, 0.0258, 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.0482, -0.0124, -0.0282, -0.0292, -0.0174, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2006245401280586235", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-31T06:05:52+00:00", "symbol": "MU", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "History would argue that buying $MU now is likely to lead to poor returns over time. Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when, not if.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish MU: wildly over-earning at cycle peak, expensive on P/B, earnings/stock price collapse is inevitable per cyclical history.", "resolved_tickers": ["MU"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "“Nobody knows where this cycle will end.” Agreed. I don’t. You don’t.\nBut we do know that $MU is expensive on a price to book basis. As I learned from my former boss Peter Lynch it is usually a bad idea to buy a stock in a cyclical industry when it appears cheap. Micron is inexpensive based on current earnings, but is wildly over earning at present. Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when, not if. History would argue that buying $MU now is likely to lead to poor returns over time.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "I just doubled my position in $MU. Now ~6% of my portfolio. Reasons in screenshot.\n\nGive me your best argument on how/why Micron would not be a $750-$1,000 stock by end of 2026. I think that might even be super conservative. Go! https://t.co/rbTkPibNa5", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.025296874712517292, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.025296874712517292, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.017832720925736734, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01646675049996782, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0074641537867805585, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008830124212549473, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.189691955447292, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.189691955447292, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.17845896772612324, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.12057806936896132, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011232987721168763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.06911388607833069, "ret_p1m": 0.5268911602727657, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5268911602727657, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5091178487279144, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.367532086180802, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01777331154485129, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1593590740919637, "ret_p3m": 0.1279743630666592, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1279743630666592, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.19869248047269727, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12131011997681918, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07071811740603806, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0066642430898400384, "ret_p6m": 3.2537746614710468, "ret_signed_p6m": -3.2537746614710468, "alpha_spy_p6m": -3.17123967277215, "alpha_c_p6m": -2.4853021758472638, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08253498869889708, "bench_c_p6m": 0.768472485623783, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1279743630666592, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.19869248047269727, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12131011997681918, "price_path": [-0.3422, -0.3312, -0.3497, -0.3117, -0.3264, -0.364, -0.3249, -0.3449, -0.3278, -0.2907, -0.2912, -0.2758, -0.2915, -0.3049, -0.276, -0.2329, -0.2291, -0.2228, -0.2063, -0.2154, -0.2163, -0.178, -0.2364, -0.1682, -0.1653, -0.1667, -0.1129, -0.1556, -0.1423, -0.1701, -0.1355, -0.1526, -0.1997, -0.2088, -0.2947, -0.2737, -0.2157, -0.2136, -0.1936, -0.1936, -0.1718, -0.1578, -0.1612, -0.1799, -0.2062, -0.1692, -0.1352, -0.1159, -0.0764, -0.0948, -0.1555, -0.1682, -0.1857, -0.2102, -0.1295, -0.0687, -0.0313, -0.0324, 0.004, 0.004, -0.0026, 0.0314, 0.0253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1051, 0.0937, 0.2033, 0.1897, 0.1458, 0.2091, 0.2118, 0.1847, 0.168, 0.1795, 0.271, 0.271, 0.2789, 0.3633, 0.393, 0.4003, 0.3633, 0.4374, 0.5251, 0.5269, 0.4536, 0.5339, 0.4696, 0.3293, 0.3415, 0.3829, 0.3437, 0.3078, 0.4377, 0.4504, 0.4423, 0.4423, 0.4007, 0.4749, 0.4623, 0.5002, 0.475, 0.4646, 0.5031, 0.456, 0.4448, 0.4459, 0.3303, 0.4042, 0.3912, 0.2974, 0.3641, 0.4124, 0.467, 0.4202, 0.493, 0.5479, 0.6176, 0.6178, 0.5566, 0.4817, 0.4167, 0.3858, 0.3387, 0.2454, 0.2516, 0.128, 0.1842, 0.2894, 0.2837, 0.2837, 0.3241, 0.3235, 0.4257, 0.4775, 0.4743, 0.4952, 0.6322, 0.5992, 0.6027, 0.5951, 0.5718, 0.5752, 0.7087, 0.6885, 0.7411, 0.8387, 0.7676, 0.8173, 0.8128, 0.9006, 1.0206, 1.244, 1.3365, 1.2666, 1.6177, 1.7878, 1.687, 1.8169, 1.7201, 1.5401, 1.3889, 1.4492, 1.5658, 1.6713, 1.6324, 1.6324, 2.1402, 2.2543, 2.2371, 2.4036, 2.6296, 2.7299, 2.7841, 2.4912, 2.0285, 2.3274, 2.2805, 2.1262, 2.4907, 2.4407, 2.8136, 2.578, 2.6566, 2.9749, 2.9749, 3.2461, 2.6867, 2.6752, 3.2538]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2024177167995707835", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-18T17:40:18+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short from $7.5, so I am good - $OPEN shareholders, not so much", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN from $7.5; dismisses bullish narrative as absurd, implying continued downside.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I am short from $7.5, so I am good - $OPEN shareholders, not so much. The question $OPEN bagholders need to answer is at what point will they realize they have been bagged? If you are unable to answer that question, then that proves that you really don’t know what you own. Instead you are guilty of FOMO and chasing an absurd narrative from @ericjackson @rabois and @APompliano \nYour issue should be with them. \nYou should be thankful for the public service we have provided for speaking the truth.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 so you would only cover if the management changes your mind? even if the price goes to $8 and you're upside down? curious your price target for covering?", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.06479485600857027, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.06479485600857027, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05978239974675059, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.07840493606655063, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050124562618196755, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013610080057980367, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004319650201332292, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004319650201332292, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006956994524881854, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007779877913270172, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637344323549562, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00346022771193788, "ret_p1w": 0.07559393001760895, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07559393001760895, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0655980749522771, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07351788275583138, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009995855065331849, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0020760472617775694, "ret_p1m": 0.11015113162826795, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.11015113162826795, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.14874998635313585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.14313857623848514, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.038598854724867904, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03298744461021719, "ret_p3m": -0.07559393001760895, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07559393001760895, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15482762851527587, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09160454305074617, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07923369849766693, "bench_c_p3m": 0.016010613033137222, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.11015113162826795, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.14874998635313585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.14313857623848514, "price_path": [0.4579, 0.6609, 0.6717, 0.6803, 0.6803, 0.6631, 0.5421, 0.5097, 0.4989, 0.6371, 0.5443, 0.5227, 0.6004, 0.5119, 0.5227, 0.4168, 0.3974, 0.4536, 0.3218, 0.3564, 0.3737, 0.3866, 0.3542, 0.3564, 0.3564, 0.2981, 0.2592, 0.2613, 0.2592, 0.2592, 0.311, 0.365, 0.4968, 0.3218, 0.3888, 0.5745, 0.5162, 0.4622, 0.4341, 0.3607, 0.4406, 0.4406, 0.3801, 0.3996, 0.3866, 0.2981, 0.2678, 0.2549, 0.2441, 0.2052, 0.1123, 0.041, 0.108, 0.0799, 0.0151, 0.054, 0.067, 0.013, 0.0281, -0.054, -0.04, -0.04, -0.0648, 0.0, 0.0043, 0.0799, 0.0324, 0.1037, 0.0756, 0.1685, 0.1706, 0.0907, 0.0734, 0.054, 0.1188, 0.0799, 0.0972, 0.0821, 0.1382, 0.0454, 0.0691, 0.1188, 0.2009, 0.1404, 0.1102, 0.0605, 0.1253, 0.1188, 0.1015, 0.0583, 0.0367, -0.0432, 0.0108, -0.013, 0.0238, 0.0238, -0.0043, -0.0173, 0.0022, -0.0691, -0.067, -0.0583, -0.0259, 0.041, 0.1382, 0.1425, 0.1555, 0.1771, 0.1728, 0.1274, 0.1901, 0.1641, 0.1836, 0.2052, 0.162, 0.1749, 0.108, 0.1296, 0.1793, 0.149, 0.0821, 0.0475, 0.0173, -0.0108, -0.0346, -0.054, -0.0756, -0.0713, -0.0497, -0.013, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0324, 0.0259, 0.095, 0.0886, 0.1469, 0.1685, 0.0518, 0.0691, -0.0454, -0.0691, -0.0626, -0.0324, -0.0346, -0.041, -0.0043, 0.0259, -0.0389, -0.0346, -0.0346, -0.0756, -0.0929, -0.0756, -0.0713, -0.0562, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007482535480308010", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-03T16:01:48+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold. The song remains the same. Own it. Don't trade it.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisive buy-and-hold verdict on gold: own it, don't trade it.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Gold.  The song remains the same.\nOwn it. Don’t trade it.\n\n@LukeGromen @DonDurrett", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02563854275357602, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02563854275357602, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01902240052284565, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01902240052284565, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010813149047262716, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010813149047262716, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.004865990747891624, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.004865990747891624, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "ret_p1w": 0.032953324441954424, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.032953324441954424, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.022135020941664196, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.022135020941664196, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "ret_p1m": 0.11138564852614352, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.11138564852614352, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10875378829578386, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.10875378829578386, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "ret_p3m": 0.05051862560705156, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05051862560705156, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09428487844586142, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09428487844586142, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.11138564852614352, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10875378829578386, "alpha_c_stated": 0.10875378829578386, "price_path": [-0.0892, -0.106, -0.097, -0.075, -0.0684, -0.0523, -0.0301, -0.0484, -0.0137, -0.0771, -0.077, -0.0733, -0.0764, -0.1021, -0.1086, -0.1119, -0.0945, -0.0994, -0.0978, -0.1136, -0.1034, -0.1044, -0.099, -0.0743, -0.0707, -0.0557, -0.0633, -0.0802, -0.0908, -0.0842, -0.0827, -0.083, -0.0844, -0.0699, -0.0702, -0.0627, -0.0627, -0.0511, -0.0465, -0.0526, -0.0535, -0.0529, -0.0546, -0.0571, -0.0523, -0.0482, -0.038, -0.0326, -0.0317, -0.0315, -0.0232, -0.0249, -0.0238, -0.0013, 0.0119, 0.0078, 0.0078, 0.0195, -0.0249, -0.0241, -0.0305, -0.0305, -0.0256, 0.0, 0.0108, 0.0011, 0.0067, 0.014, 0.033, 0.0315, 0.042, 0.0356, 0.0307, 0.0307, 0.0696, 0.0852, 0.1053, 0.1205, 0.1369, 0.1647, 0.2099, 0.2132, 0.0885, 0.0449, 0.1114, 0.1106, 0.081, 0.1142, 0.1426, 0.1312, 0.144, 0.1043, 0.1318, 0.1318, 0.0965, 0.1211, 0.1243, 0.1464, 0.1774, 0.1611, 0.1582, 0.1681, 0.1835, 0.1987, 0.1453, 0.1542, 0.1404, 0.1584, 0.156, 0.169, 0.1651, 0.1422, 0.1274, 0.1264, 0.1236, 0.088, 0.0432, 0.0113, -0.0115, -0.0113, 0.0184, -0.0199, 0.0145, 0.0142, 0.0527, 0.0711, 0.0505, 0.0505, 0.0462, 0.0564, 0.063, 0.0713, 0.0694, 0.0651, 0.0889, 0.0776, 0.0766, 0.0909, 0.0815, 0.0509, 0.0648, 0.0545, 0.0599, 0.0517, 0.0322, 0.0212, 0.0365, 0.0353, 0.0146, 0.0233, 0.0543, 0.0561, 0.0612, 0.0633, 0.0591, 0.0532, 0.0451, 0.0209, 0.0237, 0.0067, 0.0211, 0.0201, 0.0124, 0.0124, 0.0128, -0.0007, 0.0098, 0.0205, 0.0061, 0.0078, -0.0022, 0.0061, -0.0306, -0.0281, -0.044, -0.0836, -0.0549, -0.0544, -0.0299, -0.0272, -0.0493, -0.0529, -0.0529, -0.0591, -0.0769, -0.1048, -0.0961, -0.0859, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029943610175623560", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-06T15:34:05+00:00", "symbol": "Brent Crude", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "If this war lasts another 2-3 weeks, Brent at $100 isn't a forecast. It's a certainty.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "weeks", "summary": "Market complacent on Hormuz closure; Brent to $100+ is a certainty in 2-3 weeks, energy stocks best sector, natgas spiking, bonds casualty of the shock.", "resolved_tickers": ["BNO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "BNO is the primary Brent crude ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED AND OIL IS AT... \n\n$89.\n\nWait what?\n\n20% of global oil supply just got shut off.\n\nThe most critical energy chokepoint on planet Earth went dark a week ago.\n\nAnd Brent crude is sitting at just a 9 month high.\n\nNot an all-time high. Not even $100.\n\nA 9 month high.\n\nThe market is either very smart or very complacent.\n\nAnd I think it's COMPLACENT.\n\nHere's why:\n\nMarkets have a long history of initially shrugging off major shocks, then panicking weeks later.\n\nWhen COVID emerged, stocks barely flinched. Then they crashed 34% in five weeks.\n\nWhen Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, oil actually TRADED LOWER over the following 48 hours. Then it surged to $120.\n\nRight now, the oil futures curve is screaming the same pattern. ..\n\nThe front-month contract has spiked. But the 12-month contract has barely moved.\n\nThis means the market is pricing this as a short-term disruption that resolves quickly.\n\nBut look at the facts on the ground:\n\nIran's entire leadership has been decapitated. The IRGC declared the strait closed and threatened to set any ship on fire that tries to pass. Traffic through Hormuz has dropped to effectively ZERO.\n\nAt least 5 tankers have been hit. Insurers have pulled war risk coverage entirely. Every major shipping line - Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC - has suspended transits.\n\nVLCC tanker rates hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $423,000 per day. That's a 94% jump in a single session.\n\nAnd it's not just oil. \n\nQatar halted LNG production after Iranian drones hit its facilities. That's 20% of global LNG supply. \n\nEuropean natural gas futures jumped 30% overnight. Jet fuel costs are soaring. \n\nCrack spreads are ripping higher.\n\nIraq is SHUTTING DOWN production at its largest fields because with the strait closed, it has nowhere to put the oil.\n\nAnd this gets worse the longer it drags on.\n\nSulfuric acid exports from the Middle East are being disrupted. Acid is needed to turn ore into copper. \n\nNatural gas shortages are already curtailing urea production in India and Pakistan - which means lower crop yields and higher food prices.\n\nThis isn't just an oil shock. It's a global supply chain CRISIS in slow motion.\n\nOPEC's response? They added 206,000 barrels per day. \n\nThe disruption threatens 15-20 MILLION barrels per day. That's like fighting a wildfire with a garden hose.\n\nAnd here's the strategic problem everyone's ignoring:\n\nThe US wants a quick war. A Venezuela-style capitulation - new leaders, deal done, markets reopen.\n\nBut there's nobody left to negotiate WITH. \n\nIsrael keeps eliminating anyone who emerges as a potential successor. Iranian generals have been instructed to keep fighting without a chain of command.\n\nIran's ONLY strategy is to drag this out and inflict economic pain. \n\nThe longer the strait stays closed, the more leverage they have. And they don't need a navy to keep it closed - a few cheap drones have accomplished what submarines and mines couldn't.\n\nThe asymmetry is devastating: \n\nMillion-dollar missiles intercepting drones worth tens of thousands. That math works for a week. Not for a month.\n\nIf this war lasts another 2-3 weeks, Brent at $100 isn't a forecast. It's a certainty. \n\nEnergy stocks are the best-performing sector of 2026. XLE is up over 26% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is basically flat.\n\nThe market is pricing in a resolution that doesn't exist yet.\n\nThe first casualty in war is always truth, and bonds are a close second.\n\nOil at $89 with the strait closed is the market telling you it doesn't believe this is real.\n\nBut it's real...\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.08441408464322686, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.08441408464322686, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.09769529307842229, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.09769529307842229, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.013281208435195424, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013281208435195424, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.027986337221489133, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.027986337221489133, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03674629874380175, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03674629874380175, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00875996152231262, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00875996152231262, "ret_p1w": 0.11581342580726406, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11581342580726406, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1308197604260768, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.1308197604260768, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.015006334618812733, "bench_c_p1w": -0.015006334618812733, "ret_p1m": 0.2439134748558509, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2439134748558509, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.2612405714285132, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2612405714285132, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.017327096572662293, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017327096572662293, "ret_p3m": 0.22730370171446124, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.22730370171446124, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.10249350529154277, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10249350529154277, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.12481019642291846, "bench_c_p3m": 0.12481019642291846, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2439134748558509, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.2612405714285132, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2612405714285132, "price_path": [-0.3484, -0.3418, -0.3538, -0.3572, -0.3652, -0.3811, -0.365, -0.3725, -0.3645, -0.3493, -0.3452, -0.3468, -0.3468, -0.3609, -0.3522, -0.3511, -0.3556, -0.3556, -0.3572, -0.3458, -0.36, -0.3622, -0.334, -0.3329, -0.3233, -0.3074, -0.316, -0.327, -0.321, -0.321, -0.3224, -0.3081, -0.3206, -0.3017, -0.3044, -0.2851, -0.2765, -0.2539, -0.2503, -0.2883, -0.2692, -0.2648, -0.2758, -0.2714, -0.2601, -0.2585, -0.2514, -0.2746, -0.2744, -0.2744, -0.2769, -0.243, -0.2262, -0.2291, -0.2289, -0.2284, -0.2344, -0.2307, -0.208, -0.1504, -0.1215, -0.1149, -0.0844, 0.0, -0.028, -0.0132, 0.002, 0.0978, 0.1158, 0.0844, 0.124, 0.1868, 0.1636, 0.2041, 0.0894, 0.1308, 0.1097, 0.1502, 0.1991, 0.2284, 0.1834, 0.1452, 0.2314, 0.2314, 0.2439, 0.2177, 0.0926, 0.104, 0.0751, 0.1165, 0.081, 0.0767, 0.1167, 0.0346, 0.0796, 0.1392, 0.1497, 0.1991, 0.1966, 0.2187, 0.2523, 0.3381, 0.3317, 0.3031, 0.3681, 0.3238, 0.218, 0.2212, 0.2084, 0.2519, 0.2944, 0.2708, 0.279, 0.3126, 0.3117, 0.3381, 0.266, 0.2642, 0.2514, 0.2514, 0.2082, 0.1636, 0.1679, 0.1511, 0.1943, 0.2034, 0.2273, 0.1941, 0.165, 0.1807, 0.1481, 0.1709, 0.1179, 0.0881, 0.0478, -0.0014, -0.0105, -0.0016, -0.0016, -0.0189, -0.0321, -0.073, -0.0471, -0.0828, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029943610175623560", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-06T15:34:05+00:00", "symbol": "XLE", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy stocks are the best-performing sector of 2026. XLE is up over 26% year-to-date", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "weeks", "summary": "Market complacent on Hormuz closure; Brent to $100+ is a certainty in 2-3 weeks, energy stocks best sector, natgas spiking, bonds casualty of the shock.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED AND OIL IS AT... \n\n$89.\n\nWait what?\n\n20% of global oil supply just got shut off.\n\nThe most critical energy chokepoint on planet Earth went dark a week ago.\n\nAnd Brent crude is sitting at just a 9 month high.\n\nNot an all-time high. Not even $100.\n\nA 9 month high.\n\nThe market is either very smart or very complacent.\n\nAnd I think it's COMPLACENT.\n\nHere's why:\n\nMarkets have a long history of initially shrugging off major shocks, then panicking weeks later.\n\nWhen COVID emerged, stocks barely flinched. Then they crashed 34% in five weeks.\n\nWhen Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, oil actually TRADED LOWER over the following 48 hours. Then it surged to $120.\n\nRight now, the oil futures curve is screaming the same pattern. ..\n\nThe front-month contract has spiked. But the 12-month contract has barely moved.\n\nThis means the market is pricing this as a short-term disruption that resolves quickly.\n\nBut look at the facts on the ground:\n\nIran's entire leadership has been decapitated. The IRGC declared the strait closed and threatened to set any ship on fire that tries to pass. Traffic through Hormuz has dropped to effectively ZERO.\n\nAt least 5 tankers have been hit. Insurers have pulled war risk coverage entirely. Every major shipping line - Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC - has suspended transits.\n\nVLCC tanker rates hit an ALL-TIME HIGH of $423,000 per day. That's a 94% jump in a single session.\n\nAnd it's not just oil. \n\nQatar halted LNG production after Iranian drones hit its facilities. That's 20% of global LNG supply. \n\nEuropean natural gas futures jumped 30% overnight. Jet fuel costs are soaring. \n\nCrack spreads are ripping higher.\n\nIraq is SHUTTING DOWN production at its largest fields because with the strait closed, it has nowhere to put the oil.\n\nAnd this gets worse the longer it drags on.\n\nSulfuric acid exports from the Middle East are being disrupted. Acid is needed to turn ore into copper. \n\nNatural gas shortages are already curtailing urea production in India and Pakistan - which means lower crop yields and higher food prices.\n\nThis isn't just an oil shock. It's a global supply chain CRISIS in slow motion.\n\nOPEC's response? They added 206,000 barrels per day. \n\nThe disruption threatens 15-20 MILLION barrels per day. That's like fighting a wildfire with a garden hose.\n\nAnd here's the strategic problem everyone's ignoring:\n\nThe US wants a quick war. A Venezuela-style capitulation - new leaders, deal done, markets reopen.\n\nBut there's nobody left to negotiate WITH. \n\nIsrael keeps eliminating anyone who emerges as a potential successor. Iranian generals have been instructed to keep fighting without a chain of command.\n\nIran's ONLY strategy is to drag this out and inflict economic pain. \n\nThe longer the strait stays closed, the more leverage they have. And they don't need a navy to keep it closed - a few cheap drones have accomplished what submarines and mines couldn't.\n\nThe asymmetry is devastating: \n\nMillion-dollar missiles intercepting drones worth tens of thousands. That math works for a week. Not for a month.\n\nIf this war lasts another 2-3 weeks, Brent at $100 isn't a forecast. It's a certainty. \n\nEnergy stocks are the best-performing sector of 2026. XLE is up over 26% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is basically flat.\n\nThe market is pricing in a resolution that doesn't exist yet.\n\nThe first casualty in war is always truth, and bonds are a close second.\n\nOil at $89 with the strait closed is the market telling you it doesn't believe this is real.\n\nBut it's real...\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0015909506682239005, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0015909506682239005, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.014872159103419325, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.014872159103419325, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.013281208435195424, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013281208435195424, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0044193453913429215, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0044193453913429215, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.013179306913655542, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.013179306913655542, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00875996152231262, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00875996152231262, "ret_p1w": 0.019975208733657324, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.019975208733657324, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03498154335247006, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03498154335247006, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.015006334618812733, "bench_c_p1w": -0.015006334618812733, "ret_p1m": 0.061869058033056756, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.061869058033056756, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07919615460571905, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07919615460571905, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.017327096572662293, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017327096572662293, "ret_p3m": 0.04461005985069999, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.04461005985069999, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.08020013657221847, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08020013657221847, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.12481019642291846, "bench_c_p3m": 0.12481019642291846, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.061869058033056756, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07919615460571905, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07919615460571905, "price_path": [-0.199, -0.1906, -0.1944, -0.2023, -0.2079, -0.2321, -0.2151, -0.2265, -0.2265, -0.2185, -0.2134, -0.2157, -0.2157, -0.2187, -0.2112, -0.2052, -0.2097, -0.2097, -0.193, -0.1711, -0.1932, -0.2022, -0.1771, -0.175, -0.1808, -0.1692, -0.1504, -0.1584, -0.157, -0.157, -0.1586, -0.1382, -0.1354, -0.1305, -0.1299, -0.122, -0.1153, -0.1071, -0.0976, -0.1153, -0.0866, -0.0661, -0.0771, -0.0587, -0.0518, -0.0529, -0.0281, -0.0458, -0.0392, -0.0392, -0.0498, -0.0316, -0.0246, -0.0299, -0.0251, -0.026, -0.0301, -0.0269, -0.0115, 0.0083, -0.0009, -0.0067, -0.0016, 0.0, -0.0044, -0.0171, 0.0072, 0.0166, 0.02, 0.0235, 0.0343, 0.0329, 0.0493, 0.0484, 0.061, 0.0825, 0.0777, 0.0946, 0.1131, 0.1024, 0.09, 0.0492, 0.0542, 0.0542, 0.0619, 0.0704, 0.0329, 0.0201, 0.0131, 0.0161, -0.0045, -0.0079, 0.0067, -0.021, -0.0202, -0.0059, 0.006, 0.0138, 0.0119, 0.0101, 0.0268, 0.0503, 0.0613, 0.0471, 0.0567, 0.0578, 0.0142, -0.0045, -0.0089, 0.0172, 0.0243, 0.0254, 0.0332, 0.0576, 0.0779, 0.0905, 0.064, 0.0521, 0.0585, 0.0585, 0.0293, 0.014, 0.0133, 0.0016, 0.0195, 0.0313, 0.0446, 0.0453, 0.0261, 0.0378, 0.0211, 0.0364, 0.0163, 0.024, -0.0116, -0.015, -0.0273, -0.0433, -0.0433, -0.0312, -0.024, -0.04, -0.0307, -0.0351, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2014705699750551706", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-23T14:24:04+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Silver at $99 today. Positioned & watching it unfold. Corrections? Buy 'em fast—this system's breaking vertically.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long silver targeting $200–$500 on COMEX supply fracture, physical scarcity, and structural deficit; short DXY on multi-year support break.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The global monetary system is cracking—trust in fiat is evaporating, central banks are hoarding physical metals, and silver sits at the epicenter.\n\nKey signals flashing right now (Jan 23, 2026):\n\n- Silver spot ~$99/oz (hitting all-time highs, up massively YTD) 🚀\n- DXY breaking multi-year support, around 98.3–98.4\n- Japan 40-year JGB yields at ~4% (record highs), sparking repatriation & pressuring US debt funding\n- Shanghai physical silver trading at $10–13+ premium over COMEX (decoupling East-West hard)\n- COMEX registered inventory draining fast (millions oz withdrawn recently, coverage ~15–25% of paper claims amid huge delivery notices)\n\nChina weaponizing silver exports + endless industrial demand (solar, EVs, AI) vs. tiny mining growth = structural deficit that paper can't hide anymore.\n\nMichael Oliver (nailed '87 crash) sees silver regime change: breakout vs gold signals $200 min, possibly $300–$500 in months if historical ratios kick in (gold to $8k? Silver explodes).\n\nBofA ~$110 H2 '26, Citi $100 soon—feels conservative when physical scarcity + gamma squeeze collide.\n\nThis isn't hype. Paper vs physical is fracturing. COMEX on fumes, lease rates spiking, margins hiked in panic.\n\nSilver at $99 today. Positioned & watching it unfold. Corrections? Buy 'em fast—this system's breaking vertically.\n\nWhat do you think—$200 coming quick or bigger blow-off? #SilverSqueeze #PreciousMetals #MonetaryReset", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.06221080810320334, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.06221080810320334, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.06184820444333683, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.06184820444333683, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00036260365986651166, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00036260365986651166, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.058443574015224264, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.058443574015224264, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.053365342253351544, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.053365342253351544, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00507823176187272, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00507823176187272, "ret_p1w": -0.18803143399108224, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18803143399108224, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.19200698740011757, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.19200698740011757, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003975553409035326, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003975553409035326, "ret_p1m": -0.13281674180277392, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13281674180277392, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12289272565342357, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12289272565342357, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.009924016149350345, "bench_c_p1m": -0.009924016149350345, "ret_p3m": -0.24260036623720016, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.24260036623720016, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.27730927286208396, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.27730927286208396, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.034708906624883795, "bench_c_p3m": 0.034708906624883795, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13281674180277392, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.12289272565342357, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12289272565342357, "price_path": [-0.5404, -0.5347, -0.5228, -0.5263, -0.529, -0.54, -0.5302, -0.5313, -0.5273, -0.5072, -0.5001, -0.4799, -0.4896, -0.5053, -0.5106, -0.5038, -0.5001, -0.5073, -0.5124, -0.4981, -0.4977, -0.4791, -0.4791, -0.4488, -0.4347, -0.4282, -0.4288, -0.4429, -0.4301, -0.4327, -0.4062, -0.3965, -0.3798, -0.3962, -0.3746, -0.3786, -0.3514, -0.3615, -0.3442, -0.3276, -0.3021, -0.298, -0.298, -0.2345, -0.2895, -0.2576, -0.3066, -0.3066, -0.2923, -0.2565, -0.2067, -0.2363, -0.2497, -0.221, -0.1688, -0.154, -0.0899, -0.1032, -0.128, -0.128, -0.0809, -0.0963, -0.0622, 0.0, 0.0584, 0.0934, 0.1366, 0.1363, -0.188, -0.2203, -0.1717, -0.1478, -0.2822, -0.2445, -0.1816, -0.2099, -0.176, -0.271, -0.2496, -0.2496, -0.2857, -0.2456, -0.2357, -0.1753, -0.1328, -0.1489, -0.1385, -0.1341, -0.0852, -0.1221, -0.1962, -0.1891, -0.2006, -0.1826, -0.1577, -0.138, -0.1614, -0.1768, -0.2176, -0.2119, -0.2287, -0.2606, -0.2931, -0.3379, -0.3276, -0.3225, -0.2981, -0.3459, -0.3172, -0.3163, -0.2666, -0.2666, -0.2919, -0.2919, -0.2887, -0.2903, -0.2738, -0.2639, -0.2565, -0.2651, -0.2246, -0.2268, -0.2332, -0.2075, -0.2234, -0.2628, -0.2426, -0.264, -0.2596, -0.2646, -0.2875, -0.3021, -0.2825, -0.265, -0.2903, -0.2906, -0.2452, -0.2294, -0.2142, -0.1605, -0.1546, -0.1459, -0.1873, -0.2569, -0.2472, -0.2799, -0.2603, -0.2525, -0.2642, -0.2642, -0.2496, -0.2735, -0.2642, -0.2646, -0.2717, -0.2682, -0.2874, -0.2791, -0.3373, -0.3372, -0.3649, -0.3794, -0.3454, -0.3403, -0.3169, -0.3177, -0.3476, -0.3595, -0.3595, -0.3659, -0.4002, -0.4427, -0.4364, -0.4265, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2007168495935758719", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-02T19:13:55+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect the stock to fall at least 50% as the fundamentals implode and investors tire of the BS from @elonmusk", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Holding TSLA short; expects at least 50% decline as fundamentals implode and investor patience with Musk runs out.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@TargaGordon Hard to predict over such a short term time span. I am not in this just for 9% (profit so far). I expect the stock to fall at least 50% as the fundamentals implode and investors tire of the BS from @elonmusk", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Your short is finally coming into the money here, where do you see TSLA ending up short term (4 week outlook). At that point you’d have held that coming on to 2 months", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "TargaGordon", "ret_m1d": 0.026593908968212343, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.026593908968212343, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.028423548353842976, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.017637361069777535, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008956547898434808, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.031045280151877908, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.031045280151877908, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.024385073043633243, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.014568708932490848, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01647657121938706, "ret_p1w": 0.015842222305509024, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.015842222305509024, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0001128510704759833, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03536186942391506, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.051204091729424084, "ret_p1m": -0.03711737734555942, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06770470393027994, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03058732658472052, "ret_p3m": -0.12968246309669917, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.12968246309669917, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09141892029835241, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05930285557113557, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0703796075255636, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06770470393027994, "price_path": [-0.0114, 0.0014, -0.0058, -0.0561, -0.005, -0.0202, -0.0067, -0.0213, 0.0028, 0.0214, 0.0103, 0.0021, 0.0249, -0.0099, 0.0328, 0.0513, 0.0535, 0.0046, 0.0422, 0.0692, 0.0141, 0.0548, 0.0179, -0.0195, 0.0163, 0.0035, -0.0171, -0.0824, -0.077, -0.0665, -0.0841, -0.0778, -0.0978, -0.1072, -0.0463, -0.0426, -0.0262, -0.0262, -0.018, -0.0181, -0.0202, 0.0198, 0.0376, 0.0386, 0.0034, 0.0162, 0.0305, 0.0201, 0.0477, 0.085, 0.1183, 0.0666, 0.1034, 0.0985, 0.1156, 0.1084, 0.108, 0.108, 0.0847, 0.0492, 0.0373, 0.0266, 0.0266, 0.0, 0.031, -0.0117, -0.0152, -0.0052, 0.0158, 0.0249, 0.0208, 0.0026, 0.0011, -0.0013, -0.0013, -0.043, -0.0151, 0.0258, 0.0251, -0.0066, -0.0164, -0.0151, -0.0491, -0.0175, -0.0371, -0.0368, -0.0732, -0.0933, -0.0615, -0.0474, -0.0294, -0.0224, -0.0479, -0.0471, -0.0471, -0.0626, -0.0611, -0.0602, -0.0599, -0.0873, -0.0655, -0.0472, -0.0673, -0.0812, -0.0793, -0.1042, -0.0733, -0.0742, -0.0944, -0.0899, -0.0886, -0.0691, -0.0983, -0.107, -0.097, -0.0886, -0.1034, -0.1319, -0.16, -0.1306, -0.1256, -0.119, -0.1506, -0.174, -0.189, -0.1514, -0.1297, -0.1769, -0.1769, -0.1946, -0.2087, -0.2164, -0.211, -0.2034, -0.1955, -0.1686, -0.1053, -0.1122, -0.0855, -0.104, -0.1179, -0.1154, -0.1469, -0.141, -0.1356, -0.1416, -0.149, -0.1288, -0.1079, -0.104, -0.1112, -0.0898, -0.06, -0.0222, 0.0158, -0.0105, 0.0164, 0.0119, -0.0361, -0.0641, -0.0775, -0.0475, -0.0462, -0.0275, -0.0275, -0.0102, 0.0052, 0.0092, -0.0052, -0.0507, -0.0327, -0.0328, -0.0448, -0.1074, -0.0665, -0.0945, -0.1289, -0.0888, -0.0722, -0.0615, -0.0763, -0.0952, -0.0858, -0.0858, -0.0754, -0.1289, -0.1428, -0.1437, -0.1332, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2016284823745180059", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-27T22:58:57+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "No I remain short $BETR. The stock has declined 27% since I declared the short in December.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Still short BETR; stock already down 27% since December short declaration, remains convicted bearish.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "No I remain short $BETR.  The stock has declined 27% since I declared the short in December. I tried to warn folks, but the bagholders did not listen. The $SHOP of mortgages? I think not. @ericjackson belongs in jail. Call 1-800-stock loan. @CedarStResearch https://t.co/R1qy88K0Ra", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 Hi George, did you close out your $BETR short yet?  Probably a good idea if you haven't, I would think, right?", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03889585331746748, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03889585331746748, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03899652803217024, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03899652803217024, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010067471470276423, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00010067471470276423, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010978622438353791, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010978622438353791, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.008994245283519997, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.008994245283519997, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.001984377154833794, "bench_c_p1d": -0.001984377154833794, "ret_p1w": -0.1364491401704444, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.1364491401704444, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.12317666577565956, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.12317666577565956, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01327247439478485, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01327247439478485, "ret_p1m": 0.04266005500319747, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.04266005500319747, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.051460489748556215, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.051460489748556215, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.008800434745358743, "bench_c_p1m": -0.008800434745358743, "ret_p3m": 0.2754078079603808, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.2754078079603808, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.24419908757129805, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.24419908757129805, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.031208720389082734, "bench_c_p3m": 0.031208720389082734, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.04266005500319747, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.051460489748556215, "alpha_c_stated": -0.051460489748556215, "price_path": [1.2964, 1.288, 1.0354, 0.9203, 0.9003, 0.7986, 1.0725, 0.9903, 0.8557, 0.8008, 0.7644, 0.6509, 0.7117, 0.5242, 0.388, 0.4131, 0.4335, 0.4272, 0.4787, 0.4787, 0.5188, 0.4153, 0.3714, 0.3921, 0.5668, 0.4253, 0.4633, 0.4928, 0.5881, 0.5232, 0.3102, 0.2428, 0.2196, 0.0969, 0.107, 0.0342, 0.1468, 0.1267, 0.1606, 0.1606, 0.0957, 0.0703, 0.0342, 0.022, 0.022, 0.0897, 0.1386, 0.0985, 0.0596, 0.1744, 0.2506, 0.202, 0.2183, 0.1835, 0.1506, 0.064, 0.064, -0.0003, 0.0245, 0.0075, -0.0169, -0.1085, -0.0389, 0.0, -0.011, -0.0492, -0.1572, -0.1267, -0.1364, -0.2073, -0.1631, -0.1245, -0.1035, -0.0869, -0.0847, -0.0163, -0.0163, -0.0201, 0.0006, -0.0069, -0.0976, -0.1509, -0.1088, -0.0298, 0.0427, 0.032, 0.0979, 0.0323, -0.0144, 0.0477, -0.0022, 0.1195, 0.1989, 0.2525, 0.1499, 0.0806, -0.0997, -0.0207, -0.107, -0.0907, -0.1434, -0.0907, -0.1032, -0.0144, 0.0389, -0.0383, 0.0474, 0.1173, 0.0869, 0.1797, 0.1797, 0.266, 0.4065, 0.098, 0.0113, 0.0273, 0.1004, 0.09, 0.1998, 0.171, 0.2933, 0.4893, 0.4602, 0.4395, 0.2895, 0.3344, 0.2754, 0.3231, 0.2271, 0.2902, 0.3921, 0.304, 0.3309, 0.3391, -0.0427, -0.0568, -0.026, -0.0471, -0.0903, -0.0872, -0.1531, -0.2142, -0.2077, -0.2365, -0.2149, -0.1967, -0.1967, -0.1697, -0.1559, -0.1126, -0.085, -0.09, -0.111, -0.1716, -0.1339, -0.1964, -0.2017, -0.2146, -0.2556, -0.244, -0.1684, -0.0957, -0.0825, -0.1474, -0.1082, -0.1082, -0.1725, -0.1942, -0.1785, -0.1976, -0.1948, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2019147731239895282", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-04T20:35:07+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short AI, semis, software, meme stocks, and TSLA; valuation bubble analogous to March 2000 dot-com crash with rotate-out-of-speculation thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE DEATH OF SPECULATION \n\nIf you don’t understand why the market is falling, then you haven’t been in the stock market long enough. \n\nIn March 2000 everything was hunky dory. Everything was perfect. The biggest crash of our lifetime started when people started to seriously \nquestion the dominant narrative.\nNaive tech investors were chasing stories, regardless of valuation. \n\nTrees do not grow to the sky.\n\nFundamentals matter.\n\nValuations matter.\n\nShort  anything AI related.\n\nShort semis, software.\n\nShort all meme stocks. \n\nShort $TSLA . Short @elonmusk \n\nShort @DivesTech , @CathieDWood \n\nShort @APompliano , @ericjackson \n\nROTATE. ROTATE. ROTATE. \n\nThere is nothing new under the sun.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Can someone explain to me like I’m 10 years old as to why the stock market is crashing today? https://t.co/g1ax3upaav", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03928470063745593, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03928470063745593, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03441726978840842, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03187425305950975, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007410447577946178, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02167438757390938, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02167438757390938, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.009185103513585147, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.00010903352744773276, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "bench_c_p1d": -0.02156535404646165, "ret_p1w": 0.054826183376357474, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.054826183376357474, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.04641742899351908, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07430989226110707, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "bench_c_p1w": -0.019483708884749595, "ret_p1m": -0.0011330311115280711, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0011330311115280711, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.005978767067636226, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.028425590339086093, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "bench_c_p1m": -0.029558621450614164, "ret_p3m": -0.033250411751653774, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.033250411751653774, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08248002209160676, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.015402654775658275, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0178477569759955, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0011330311115280711, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.005978767067636226, "alpha_c_stated": -0.028425590339086093, "price_path": [0.0579, 0.0966, 0.0828, 0.0606, -0.0099, -0.0041, 0.0072, -0.0117, -0.005, -0.0266, -0.0367, 0.029, 0.033, 0.0507, 0.0507, 0.0595, 0.0594, 0.0572, 0.1003, 0.1195, 0.1207, 0.0827, 0.0965, 0.1119, 0.1007, 0.1304, 0.1707, 0.2066, 0.1509, 0.1905, 0.1852, 0.2037, 0.1959, 0.1955, 0.1955, 0.1704, 0.1321, 0.1193, 0.1077, 0.1077, 0.079, 0.1125, 0.0664, 0.0626, 0.0734, 0.0961, 0.1058, 0.1015, 0.0817, 0.0802, 0.0776, 0.0776, 0.0326, 0.0626, 0.1068, 0.106, 0.0719, 0.0613, 0.0627, 0.026, 0.0601, 0.0389, 0.0393, 0.0, -0.0217, 0.0126, 0.0279, 0.0473, 0.0548, 0.0272, 0.0282, 0.0282, 0.0114, 0.0131, 0.014, 0.0143, -0.0152, 0.0083, 0.0281, 0.0063, -0.0086, -0.0066, -0.0334, -0.0002, -0.0011, -0.0229, -0.0181, -0.0167, 0.0045, -0.0271, -0.0365, -0.0257, -0.0166, -0.0326, -0.0633, -0.0937, -0.062, -0.0566, -0.0494, -0.0835, -0.1088, -0.1249, -0.0844, -0.061, -0.1119, -0.1119, -0.131, -0.1462, -0.1546, -0.1487, -0.1405, -0.132, -0.103, -0.0346, -0.0421, -0.0133, -0.0333, -0.0483, -0.0456, -0.0795, -0.0732, -0.0673, -0.0739, -0.0818, -0.06, -0.0374, -0.0333, -0.041, -0.0179, 0.0142, 0.055, 0.096, 0.0676, 0.0967, 0.0918, 0.04, 0.0098, -0.0047, 0.0277, 0.0292, 0.0493, 0.0493, 0.0679, 0.0846, 0.0889, 0.0733, 0.0243, 0.0437, 0.0436, 0.0306, -0.037, 0.0072, -0.023, -0.0601, -0.0169, 0.001, 0.0127, -0.0033, -0.0237, -0.0136, -0.0136, -0.0024, -0.0601, -0.0751, -0.0761, -0.0648, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2019147731239895282", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-04T20:35:07+00:00", "symbol": "AI", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short anything AI related", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short AI, semis, software, meme stocks, and TSLA; valuation bubble analogous to March 2000 dot-com crash with rotate-out-of-speculation thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["AIQ", "BOTZ"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Broad AI sector short; AIQ most direct proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE DEATH OF SPECULATION \n\nIf you don’t understand why the market is falling, then you haven’t been in the stock market long enough. \n\nIn March 2000 everything was hunky dory. Everything was perfect. The biggest crash of our lifetime started when people started to seriously \nquestion the dominant narrative.\nNaive tech investors were chasing stories, regardless of valuation. \n\nTrees do not grow to the sky.\n\nFundamentals matter.\n\nValuations matter.\n\nShort  anything AI related.\n\nShort semis, software.\n\nShort all meme stocks. \n\nShort $TSLA . Short @elonmusk \n\nShort @DivesTech , @CathieDWood \n\nShort @APompliano , @ericjackson \n\nROTATE. ROTATE. ROTATE. \n\nThere is nothing new under the sun.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Can someone explain to me like I’m 10 years old as to why the stock market is crashing today? https://t.co/g1ax3upaav", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.020495945816987993, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.020495945816987993, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.015628514967940488, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.015628514967940488, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.020686532267086666, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.020686532267086666, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.00819724820676243, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.00819724820676243, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "ret_p1w": 0.03246964017647791, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03246964017647791, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.02406088579363952, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02406088579363952, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "ret_p1m": 0.0023241974999508863, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0023241974999508863, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.009435995679115183, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.009435995679115183, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "ret_p3m": 0.1024442774277452, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1024442774277452, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.05321466708779221, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.05321466708779221, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0023241974999508863, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.009435995679115183, "alpha_c_stated": -0.009435995679115183, "price_path": [0.0023, 0.0244, 0.0159, 0.014, -0.0121, -0.0147, -0.0325, -0.048, -0.0462, -0.0713, -0.063, -0.0399, -0.0319, -0.0233, -0.0233, -0.0145, -0.0135, -0.0117, -0.0028, 0.017, 0.0208, 0.0229, 0.0243, 0.0303, 0.025, 0.0058, -0.0039, -0.0088, -0.0286, -0.0153, 0.0022, 0.0147, 0.0179, 0.0193, 0.0193, 0.0193, 0.0207, 0.0196, 0.0098, 0.0098, 0.0221, 0.0407, 0.0511, 0.0536, 0.0432, 0.0545, 0.0632, 0.0499, 0.0483, 0.0538, 0.0537, 0.0537, 0.0234, 0.0405, 0.0484, 0.0475, 0.0493, 0.0603, 0.0617, 0.0554, 0.0359, 0.0339, 0.0205, 0.0, -0.0207, 0.019, 0.0356, 0.038, 0.0325, 0.0167, 0.0243, 0.0243, 0.0233, 0.0256, 0.028, 0.038, 0.0183, 0.0339, 0.0535, 0.051, 0.0418, 0.0285, -0.0018, 0.0126, 0.0023, -0.0099, -0.0025, -0.0016, 0.0012, -0.0219, -0.0347, -0.0171, -0.0148, -0.0292, -0.0295, -0.0615, -0.0411, -0.056, -0.0454, -0.0754, -0.0963, -0.1097, -0.0737, -0.0577, -0.0652, -0.0652, -0.0578, -0.0595, -0.0181, -0.0234, -0.0162, 0.0034, 0.0245, 0.0355, 0.043, 0.0587, 0.058, 0.0454, 0.067, 0.0425, 0.0686, 0.0864, 0.0662, 0.0671, 0.0909, 0.1025, 0.1024, 0.1209, 0.1552, 0.1514, 0.197, 0.2006, 0.174, 0.1975, 0.1937, 0.1675, 0.1588, 0.1427, 0.1625, 0.1755, 0.1862, 0.1862, 0.2188, 0.2064, 0.2219, 0.23, 0.2576, 0.2652, 0.2503, 0.2366, 0.1518, 0.1758, 0.1533, 0.1163, 0.1564, 0.155, 0.1963, 0.1719, 0.1648, 0.2004, 0.2004, 0.2028, 0.1419, 0.1414, 0.1499, 0.1312, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2019147731239895282", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-02-04T20:35:07+00:00", "symbol": "semiconductors", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short semis, software", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short AI, semis, software, meme stocks, and TSLA; valuation bubble analogous to March 2000 dot-com crash with rotate-out-of-speculation thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["SMH"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SMH is the primary semiconductor ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE DEATH OF SPECULATION \n\nIf you don’t understand why the market is falling, then you haven’t been in the stock market long enough. \n\nIn March 2000 everything was hunky dory. Everything was perfect. The biggest crash of our lifetime started when people started to seriously \nquestion the dominant narrative.\nNaive tech investors were chasing stories, regardless of valuation. \n\nTrees do not grow to the sky.\n\nFundamentals matter.\n\nValuations matter.\n\nShort  anything AI related.\n\nShort semis, software.\n\nShort all meme stocks. \n\nShort $TSLA . Short @elonmusk \n\nShort @DivesTech , @CathieDWood \n\nShort @APompliano , @ericjackson \n\nROTATE. ROTATE. ROTATE. \n\nThere is nothing new under the sun.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Can someone explain to me like I’m 10 years old as to why the stock market is crashing today? https://t.co/g1ax3upaav", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04099262895258837, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04099262895258837, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03612519810354087, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03612519810354087, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.002486732937472369, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.002486732937472369, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.010002551122851866, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010002551122851866, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "ret_p1w": 0.08575470055953693, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08575470055953693, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07734594617669854, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07734594617669854, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "ret_p1m": 0.0348935068142906, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0348935068142906, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.042005304993454895, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.042005304993454895, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "ret_p3m": 0.3266059973808979, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.3266059973808979, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2773763870409449, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2773763870409449, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0348935068142906, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.042005304993454895, "alpha_c_stated": -0.042005304993454895, "price_path": [-0.0916, -0.0637, -0.0839, -0.0722, -0.1002, -0.0998, -0.112, -0.1303, -0.1142, -0.1516, -0.1489, -0.1151, -0.1127, -0.0926, -0.0926, -0.0807, -0.0789, -0.0621, -0.0492, -0.0564, -0.049, -0.0383, -0.0371, -0.0238, -0.0321, -0.0759, -0.0791, -0.0816, -0.1147, -0.0938, -0.0704, -0.0584, -0.0494, -0.0467, -0.0467, -0.0423, -0.0466, -0.049, -0.0573, -0.0573, -0.0228, -0.0116, 0.0147, 0.0079, -0.008, 0.0188, 0.0226, 0.0249, 0.0166, 0.0377, 0.0481, 0.0481, 0.0219, 0.0521, 0.0544, 0.0473, 0.044, 0.066, 0.0906, 0.0929, 0.0561, 0.0679, 0.041, 0.0, -0.0025, 0.0514, 0.0645, 0.0595, 0.0858, 0.0631, 0.0673, 0.0673, 0.0667, 0.0799, 0.0738, 0.0864, 0.0808, 0.0972, 0.1155, 0.0785, 0.0637, 0.0638, 0.0237, 0.0447, 0.0349, -0.0038, 0.0323, 0.0401, 0.0498, 0.016, 0.0139, 0.0312, 0.0389, 0.0305, 0.0338, 0.0071, 0.0244, 0.0329, 0.0445, -0.0031, -0.0203, -0.051, 0.0036, 0.026, 0.027, 0.027, 0.0365, 0.0468, 0.1071, 0.1264, 0.1436, 0.1605, 0.1832, 0.1858, 0.1905, 0.215, 0.2145, 0.2163, 0.2482, 0.2613, 0.3257, 0.3252, 0.2858, 0.3077, 0.3264, 0.3345, 0.3266, 0.3682, 0.4391, 0.4138, 0.483, 0.5086, 0.4692, 0.4985, 0.5139, 0.4563, 0.4297, 0.4239, 0.4781, 0.4865, 0.5086, 0.5086, 0.5762, 0.5588, 0.5702, 0.5678, 0.591, 0.6549, 0.6698, 0.6427, 0.4913, 0.5658, 0.5471, 0.4945, 0.5953, 0.6228, 0.6939, 0.6125, 0.6333, 0.7273, 0.7273, 0.751, 0.6283, 0.6201, 0.6671, 0.601, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2019147731239895282", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-02-04T20:35:07+00:00", "symbol": "software", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short semis, software", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short AI, semis, software, meme stocks, and TSLA; valuation bubble analogous to March 2000 dot-com crash with rotate-out-of-speculation thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["IGV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "IGV is the primary software sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE DEATH OF SPECULATION \n\nIf you don’t understand why the market is falling, then you haven’t been in the stock market long enough. \n\nIn March 2000 everything was hunky dory. Everything was perfect. The biggest crash of our lifetime started when people started to seriously \nquestion the dominant narrative.\nNaive tech investors were chasing stories, regardless of valuation. \n\nTrees do not grow to the sky.\n\nFundamentals matter.\n\nValuations matter.\n\nShort  anything AI related.\n\nShort semis, software.\n\nShort all meme stocks. \n\nShort $TSLA . Short @elonmusk \n\nShort @DivesTech , @CathieDWood \n\nShort @APompliano , @ericjackson \n\nROTATE. ROTATE. ROTATE. \n\nThere is nothing new under the sun.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Can someone explain to me like I’m 10 years old as to why the stock market is crashing today? https://t.co/g1ax3upaav", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01848764032017436, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01848764032017436, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.013620209471126854, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013620209471126854, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.049737617566043446, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.049737617566043446, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03724833350571921, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03724833350571921, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "ret_p1w": -0.007275678855842238, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.007275678855842238, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01568443323868063, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.01568443323868063, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "ret_p1m": 0.04508594508281405, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.04508594508281405, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.05219774326197835, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.05219774326197835, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "ret_p3m": 0.054866489682002806, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.054866489682002806, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0056368793420498164, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0056368793420498164, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.04508594508281405, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.05219774326197835, "alpha_c_stated": -0.05219774326197835, "price_path": [0.3058, 0.3333, 0.3243, 0.3102, 0.2743, 0.2815, 0.2582, 0.2453, 0.2391, 0.2023, 0.2037, 0.2193, 0.2308, 0.2282, 0.2282, 0.2415, 0.2413, 0.255, 0.2724, 0.2876, 0.3056, 0.3049, 0.3114, 0.313, 0.3094, 0.2878, 0.257, 0.268, 0.2488, 0.2665, 0.2853, 0.2995, 0.289, 0.2909, 0.2909, 0.2894, 0.2809, 0.2761, 0.2606, 0.2606, 0.224, 0.236, 0.2514, 0.2672, 0.2457, 0.2524, 0.2566, 0.2327, 0.2055, 0.1901, 0.1726, 0.1726, 0.1442, 0.1379, 0.1563, 0.1654, 0.1786, 0.166, 0.1577, 0.1005, 0.0772, 0.0677, 0.0185, 0.0, -0.0497, -0.0165, 0.0146, 0.0187, -0.0073, -0.0344, -0.0128, -0.0128, -0.0344, -0.0219, -0.0246, -0.0365, -0.0823, -0.0648, -0.0357, -0.0148, -0.0271, -0.0128, 0.0033, 0.0216, 0.0451, 0.0493, 0.0462, 0.0216, 0.0227, 0.0137, 0.0042, 0.0132, 0.0202, 0.006, 0.0074, -0.0101, 0.0072, -0.036, -0.041, -0.0488, -0.0829, -0.0742, -0.0452, -0.0485, -0.0417, -0.0417, -0.0403, -0.0398, -0.0488, -0.0859, -0.1094, -0.0613, -0.052, -0.0103, 0.0062, 0.0148, 0.0293, 0.0339, 0.0584, -0.0032, 0.0162, 0.019, 0.0138, 0.0079, 0.0008, 0.0333, 0.0549, 0.0528, 0.0475, 0.0836, 0.0872, 0.0817, 0.0668, 0.0568, 0.0811, 0.0947, 0.1077, 0.0967, 0.1131, 0.1031, 0.1213, 0.1213, 0.1218, 0.1099, 0.1412, 0.2125, 0.2846, 0.2492, 0.1951, 0.1935, 0.1432, 0.1409, 0.1087, 0.0923, 0.0844, 0.0818, 0.1056, 0.09, 0.0637, 0.0628, 0.0628, 0.0416, 0.0417, 0.028, 0.0112, 0.0522, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2012676109700145578", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-17T23:59:12+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Revealing the truth behind Tesla - and why the fundamentals are IMPLODING.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA; claims fundamentals are imploding and few are discussing it.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "New podcast is out!\n\nRevealing the truth behind Tesla - and why the fundamentals are IMPLODING.\n\nI don’t see many people talking about this. $TSLA\n\nCheck it out:\n\nhttps://t.co/rQNWoTxDnB", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.043530113297555184, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.043530113297555184, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.022750302840302883, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01683428581834434, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "bench_c_m1d": 0.026695827479210843, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02907573629435012, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.02907573629435012, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.01753462701268882, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.009935368085397522, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "bench_c_p1d": 0.019140368208952596, "ret_p1w": 0.027787701601632353, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.027787701601632353, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.001355422645941351, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0021820617712475787, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "bench_c_p1w": 0.029969763372879932, "ret_p1m": -0.018914711212358326, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.018914711212358326, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.031769257157557296, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0012853705529399795, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017629340659418347, "ret_p3m": -0.044436505385360814, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.044436505385360814, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09535218916298716, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05729650859930069, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "bench_c_p3m": 0.012860003213939875, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.018914711212358326, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.031769257157557296, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0012853705529399795, "price_path": [0.0709, 0.0345, 0.0791, 0.0985, 0.1008, 0.0497, 0.089, 0.1172, 0.0597, 0.1021, 0.0636, 0.0245, 0.062, 0.0486, 0.0271, -0.0412, -0.0355, -0.0246, -0.0429, -0.0364, -0.0573, -0.0672, -0.0035, 0.0004, 0.0175, 0.0175, 0.026, 0.026, 0.0238, 0.0656, 0.0842, 0.0853, 0.0485, 0.0618, 0.0768, 0.0659, 0.0947, 0.1337, 0.1685, 0.1145, 0.1529, 0.1478, 0.1657, 0.1582, 0.1578, 0.1578, 0.1334, 0.0963, 0.0839, 0.0727, 0.0727, 0.0449, 0.0773, 0.0327, 0.029, 0.0395, 0.0614, 0.0709, 0.0667, 0.0476, 0.0461, 0.0435, 0.0435, 0.0, 0.0291, 0.0718, 0.0711, 0.038, 0.0278, 0.0291, -0.0064, 0.0266, 0.0061, 0.0065, -0.0316, -0.0526, -0.0194, -0.0046, 0.0142, 0.0215, -0.0052, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0206, -0.0189, -0.018, -0.0177, -0.0463, -0.0235, -0.0044, -0.0255, -0.0399, -0.038, -0.064, -0.0317, -0.0327, -0.0537, -0.0491, -0.0477, -0.0273, -0.0578, -0.0669, -0.0565, -0.0477, -0.0631, -0.0929, -0.1223, -0.0916, -0.0864, -0.0794, -0.1124, -0.137, -0.1526, -0.1133, -0.0906, -0.1399, -0.1399, -0.1584, -0.1732, -0.1813, -0.1756, -0.1677, -0.1594, -0.1313, -0.0651, -0.0724, -0.0444, -0.0638, -0.0783, -0.0757, -0.1086, -0.1024, -0.0968, -0.1031, -0.1108, -0.0897, -0.0678, -0.0638, -0.0713, -0.0489, -0.0178, 0.0217, 0.0614, 0.0339, 0.0621, 0.0574, 0.0071, -0.0221, -0.0361, -0.0047, -0.0033, 0.0161, 0.0161, 0.0342, 0.0504, 0.0545, 0.0395, -0.008, 0.0107, 0.0106, -0.0019, -0.0674, -0.0246, -0.0538, -0.0898, -0.0479, -0.0306, -0.0193, -0.0348, -0.0545, -0.0447, -0.0447, -0.0339, -0.0898, -0.1043, -0.1053, -0.0943, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2046931852934459869", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-22T12:39:18+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The comimg collapse of $TSLA will be truly epic.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Expects an epic collapse in TSLA; decisively bearish.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Tesla Q1 26 Earnings Preview: Spectacle, Valuation &amp; the Robotaxi Coliseum https://t.co/onkWxvDaqk \nFantastic article.\nThe comimg collapse of $TSLA will be truly epic.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.002812821115381947, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.002812821115381947, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.007212368768088284, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.003149188547661108, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.010025189883470231, "bench_c_m1d": 0.000336367432279161, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03558619957523779, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03558619957523779, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.031705458706839384, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.025580280845414638, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0038807408683984024, "bench_c_p1d": -0.010005918729823149, "ret_p1w": -0.037960366447187255, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.037960366447187255, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03848056330977889, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.020386983967656036, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0005201968625916376, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01757338247953122, "ret_p1m": 0.07829474226031197, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07829474226031197, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.03399007622523498, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08022867823107105, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04430466603507699, "bench_c_p1m": -0.001933935970759082, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07829474226031197, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.03399007622523498, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08022867823107105, "price_path": [0.1588, 0.1231, 0.112, 0.1134, 0.075, 0.1107, 0.0885, 0.0889, 0.0477, 0.025, 0.0609, 0.0769, 0.0973, 0.1052, 0.0763, 0.0772, 0.0772, 0.0597, 0.0614, 0.0624, 0.0627, 0.0318, 0.0564, 0.0771, 0.0544, 0.0387, 0.0408, 0.0127, 0.0476, 0.0466, 0.0238, 0.0288, 0.0303, 0.0524, 0.0194, 0.0095, 0.0208, 0.0303, 0.0136, -0.0186, -0.0505, -0.0172, -0.0116, -0.004, -0.0397, -0.0663, -0.0832, -0.0407, -0.0161, -0.0695, -0.0695, -0.0895, -0.1054, -0.1142, -0.1081, -0.0995, -0.0906, -0.0602, 0.0115, 0.0036, 0.0338, 0.0129, -0.0028, 0.0, -0.0356, -0.0289, -0.0228, -0.0297, -0.038, -0.0152, 0.0085, 0.0129, 0.0048, 0.029, 0.0627, 0.1054, 0.1484, 0.1186, 0.1491, 0.144, 0.0896, 0.058, 0.0428, 0.0768, 0.0783, 0.0994, 0.0994, 0.1189, 0.1364, 0.1409, 0.1246, 0.0732, 0.0935, 0.0934, 0.0798, 0.009, 0.0553, 0.0237, -0.0153, 0.03, 0.0488, 0.061, 0.0443, 0.0229, 0.0335, 0.0335, 0.0453, -0.0152, -0.0309, -0.032, -0.0201, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2032087218341261733", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-12T13:32:01+00:00", "symbol": "semiconductors", "kind": "sector", "geography": "global", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "flipped_to_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Avoid semis/Big Tech/software on peak-cycle valuations; rotate into gold, energy, and emerging markets as regime shifts away from free-money era.", "resolved_tickers": ["SMH"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SMH is dominant global semiconductor ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks.\n\nThe global semiconductor industry is expected to hit $975 billion in sales this year. A historic peak. Revenue growth north of 25%.\n\nEvery cycle peak sounds the same: this boom is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. AI demand is permanent. The old rules don't apply.\n\n\"It's different this time,\" they say.\n\nI've heard those 4 words more times than any others in 45 years on Wall Street. They're always wrong.\n\nHere's how I think about it:\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, capital floods in to compete those profits away.\n\nThe higher the margins, the faster it happens.\n\nSemiconductor margins right now are at levels that would make a drug cartel blush.\n\nLook at Micron. The crowd says it's \"cheap\" because the PE looks low.\nExcept Micron's price-to-book ratio sits at roughly 7x. The 10-year median is 1.86x. The historical floor is 0.81x.\n\nThat's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend.\n\nThis is the oldest trap in cyclical investing. \n\nYou see it in shipping. You see it in commodities. Earnings spike, multiples look compressed, everyone piles in. Then the cycle rolls over and those \"cheap\" earnings disappear.\n\nNow layer on the bigger picture:\n\nNew capacity is already being announced across the industry. \n\nThe hyperscalers alone - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta - plan to pour $600-700 BILLION into AI infrastructure this year. That's 70%+ more than 2025.\n\nThey're consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing north of $400 billion to cover the rest.\n\nNobody can afford to stop spending because everyone else keeps spending. It's mutually assured destruction with better PR.\n\nAnd historically, the companies that spend the MOST on capex deliver the WORST stock returns.\n\nBCA Research just argued AI threatens all 3 pillars of Big Tech profitability;\n\n1. Economies of scale\n2. Network effects\n3. Proprietary tech\n\nGoldman Sachs compared software stocks to NEWSPAPERS in the early 2000s. The group that fell 95%.\n\nSoftware is now underperforming the Nasdaq by the widest margin this century.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been positioning for is already underway:\n\nMost MAG 7 names are DOWN year to date. Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up.\n\nLast year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P. This isn't starting. It's been happening since 2024.\n\nSo my framework is simple: \n\nValuation doesn't matter in the short run. \n\nBut the longer you go out, the more it matters.\n\nAnd money ain't free anymore.\n\nWhen capital was free, pigs flew. Unprofitable companies soared. Narrative crushed fundamentals. \n\nThat era is OVER.\n\nThe 60/40 portfolio hedges against recession. But recession isn't the risk. The risk is continued money printing, persistent inflation, and higher real rates.\n\nBonds don't protect you from that. Gold does. Energy does. Real assets do.\n\nYou don't need to get clever here. Just avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nThe regime is changing. The market's scorecard already tells you that every single day.\n\nAre you listening?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03323627066755441, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03323627066755441, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01781716580935022, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01781716580935022, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.002061212223951725, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.002061212223951725, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0035989235286572052, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0035989235286572052, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "ret_p1w": 0.017494160357357513, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.017494160357357513, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.026892743872480418, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.026892743872480418, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "bench_c_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "ret_p1m": 0.12560224508980955, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.12560224508980955, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10269795362704204, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10269795362704204, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "bench_c_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "ret_p3m": 0.5227114686587235, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.5227114686587235, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.4131073584942284, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.4131073584942284, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.12560224508980955, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.10269795362704204, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10269795362704204, "price_path": [-0.0936, -0.0961, -0.1287, -0.1081, -0.085, -0.0732, -0.0643, -0.0617, -0.0617, -0.0574, -0.0616, -0.0639, -0.0721, -0.0721, -0.0382, -0.0272, -0.0013, -0.008, -0.0236, 0.0028, 0.0065, 0.0088, 0.0006, 0.0213, 0.0316, 0.0316, 0.0058, 0.0356, 0.0378, 0.0308, 0.0275, 0.0493, 0.0734, 0.0757, 0.0395, 0.0511, 0.0246, -0.0157, -0.0182, 0.0348, 0.0477, 0.0428, 0.0687, 0.0463, 0.0505, 0.0505, 0.0499, 0.0629, 0.0569, 0.0693, 0.0638, 0.0799, 0.098, 0.0615, 0.047, 0.047, 0.0075, 0.0283, 0.0186, -0.0195, 0.0161, 0.0237, 0.0332, 0.0, -0.0021, 0.0149, 0.0225, 0.0143, 0.0175, -0.0087, 0.0083, 0.0166, 0.0281, -0.0188, -0.0358, -0.066, -0.0122, 0.0099, 0.0108, 0.0108, 0.0202, 0.0303, 0.0896, 0.1087, 0.1256, 0.1422, 0.1646, 0.1671, 0.1718, 0.1959, 0.1954, 0.1972, 0.2285, 0.2415, 0.3048, 0.3044, 0.2656, 0.2871, 0.3055, 0.3135, 0.3057, 0.3467, 0.4164, 0.3915, 0.4597, 0.4848, 0.446, 0.4749, 0.4901, 0.4334, 0.4072, 0.4015, 0.4548, 0.4631, 0.4849, 0.4849, 0.5514, 0.5343, 0.5454, 0.5431, 0.566, 0.6289, 0.6435, 0.6168, 0.4678, 0.5411, 0.5227, 0.4709, 0.5702, 0.5973, 0.6672, 0.5871, 0.6076, 0.7002, 0.7002, 0.7234, 0.6027, 0.5946, 0.6409, 0.5758, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2032087218341261733", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-12T13:32:01+00:00", "symbol": "MU", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "That's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Avoid semis/Big Tech/software on peak-cycle valuations; rotate into gold, energy, and emerging markets as regime shifts away from free-money era.", "resolved_tickers": ["MU"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks.\n\nThe global semiconductor industry is expected to hit $975 billion in sales this year. A historic peak. Revenue growth north of 25%.\n\nEvery cycle peak sounds the same: this boom is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. AI demand is permanent. The old rules don't apply.\n\n\"It's different this time,\" they say.\n\nI've heard those 4 words more times than any others in 45 years on Wall Street. They're always wrong.\n\nHere's how I think about it:\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, capital floods in to compete those profits away.\n\nThe higher the margins, the faster it happens.\n\nSemiconductor margins right now are at levels that would make a drug cartel blush.\n\nLook at Micron. The crowd says it's \"cheap\" because the PE looks low.\nExcept Micron's price-to-book ratio sits at roughly 7x. The 10-year median is 1.86x. The historical floor is 0.81x.\n\nThat's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend.\n\nThis is the oldest trap in cyclical investing. \n\nYou see it in shipping. You see it in commodities. Earnings spike, multiples look compressed, everyone piles in. Then the cycle rolls over and those \"cheap\" earnings disappear.\n\nNow layer on the bigger picture:\n\nNew capacity is already being announced across the industry. \n\nThe hyperscalers alone - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta - plan to pour $600-700 BILLION into AI infrastructure this year. That's 70%+ more than 2025.\n\nThey're consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing north of $400 billion to cover the rest.\n\nNobody can afford to stop spending because everyone else keeps spending. It's mutually assured destruction with better PR.\n\nAnd historically, the companies that spend the MOST on capex deliver the WORST stock returns.\n\nBCA Research just argued AI threatens all 3 pillars of Big Tech profitability;\n\n1. Economies of scale\n2. Network effects\n3. Proprietary tech\n\nGoldman Sachs compared software stocks to NEWSPAPERS in the early 2000s. The group that fell 95%.\n\nSoftware is now underperforming the Nasdaq by the widest margin this century.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been positioning for is already underway:\n\nMost MAG 7 names are DOWN year to date. Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up.\n\nLast year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P. This isn't starting. It's been happening since 2024.\n\nSo my framework is simple: \n\nValuation doesn't matter in the short run. \n\nBut the longer you go out, the more it matters.\n\nAnd money ain't free anymore.\n\nWhen capital was free, pigs flew. Unprofitable companies soared. Narrative crushed fundamentals. \n\nThat era is OVER.\n\nThe 60/40 portfolio hedges against recession. But recession isn't the risk. The risk is continued money printing, persistent inflation, and higher real rates.\n\nBonds don't protect you from that. Gold does. Energy does. Real assets do.\n\nYou don't need to get clever here. Just avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nThe regime is changing. The market's scorecard already tells you that every single day.\n\nAre you listening?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03290986448600197, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03290986448600197, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01749075962779778, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.00032640618155244105, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "bench_c_m1d": 0.03323627066755441, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.051264407414635116, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.051264407414635116, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.056924543167244046, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.05332561963858684, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002061212223951725, "ret_p1w": 0.09601578858849225, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.09601578858849225, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.10541437210361515, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07852162823113473, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "bench_c_p1w": 0.017494160357357513, "ret_p1m": 0.03803303639975231, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03803303639975231, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.015128744936984795, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08756920869005724, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "bench_c_p1m": 0.12560224508980955, "ret_p3m": 1.309814218361156, "ret_signed_p3m": -1.309814218361156, "alpha_spy_p3m": -1.200210108196661, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.7871027497024325, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "bench_c_p3m": 0.5227114686587235, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03803303639975231, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.015128744936984795, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08756920869005724, "price_path": [-0.4143, -0.4266, -0.4439, -0.3871, -0.3442, -0.3179, -0.3187, -0.293, -0.293, -0.2977, -0.2738, -0.2781, -0.2959, -0.2959, -0.2219, -0.2299, -0.1528, -0.1623, -0.1932, -0.1487, -0.1467, -0.1658, -0.1776, -0.1695, -0.1051, -0.1051, -0.0995, -0.0401, -0.0192, -0.0141, -0.0401, 0.0121, 0.0738, 0.0751, 0.0235, 0.0801, 0.0348, -0.064, -0.0554, -0.0263, -0.0539, -0.0792, 0.0123, 0.0213, 0.0156, 0.0156, -0.0137, 0.0385, 0.0296, 0.0563, 0.0385, 0.0312, 0.0583, 0.0252, 0.0173, 0.0181, -0.0633, -0.0113, -0.0205, -0.0865, -0.0395, -0.0055, 0.0329, 0.0, 0.0513, 0.0899, 0.139, 0.1391, 0.096, 0.0433, -0.0025, -0.0242, -0.0574, -0.1231, -0.1187, -0.2058, -0.1662, -0.0921, -0.0961, -0.0961, -0.0677, -0.0681, 0.0038, 0.0403, 0.038, 0.0528, 0.1493, 0.126, 0.1285, 0.1231, 0.1067, 0.1091, 0.2031, 0.1889, 0.2259, 0.2946, 0.2446, 0.2796, 0.2764, 0.3382, 0.4227, 0.58, 0.6452, 0.5959, 0.8432, 0.9629, 0.892, 0.9834, 0.9152, 0.7885, 0.6821, 0.7245, 0.8066, 0.8809, 0.8535, 0.8535, 1.2111, 1.2914, 1.2793, 1.3965, 1.5557, 1.6262, 1.6644, 1.4582, 1.1324, 1.3429, 1.3098, 1.2012, 1.4578, 1.4227, 1.6852, 1.5193, 1.5746, 1.7987, 1.7987, 1.9897, 1.5958, 1.5878, 1.9951, 1.7946, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2032087218341261733", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-03-12T13:32:01+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold does. Energy does. Real assets do", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Avoid semis/Big Tech/software on peak-cycle valuations; rotate into gold, energy, and emerging markets as regime shifts away from free-money era.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks.\n\nThe global semiconductor industry is expected to hit $975 billion in sales this year. A historic peak. Revenue growth north of 25%.\n\nEvery cycle peak sounds the same: this boom is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. AI demand is permanent. The old rules don't apply.\n\n\"It's different this time,\" they say.\n\nI've heard those 4 words more times than any others in 45 years on Wall Street. They're always wrong.\n\nHere's how I think about it:\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, capital floods in to compete those profits away.\n\nThe higher the margins, the faster it happens.\n\nSemiconductor margins right now are at levels that would make a drug cartel blush.\n\nLook at Micron. The crowd says it's \"cheap\" because the PE looks low.\nExcept Micron's price-to-book ratio sits at roughly 7x. The 10-year median is 1.86x. The historical floor is 0.81x.\n\nThat's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend.\n\nThis is the oldest trap in cyclical investing. \n\nYou see it in shipping. You see it in commodities. Earnings spike, multiples look compressed, everyone piles in. Then the cycle rolls over and those \"cheap\" earnings disappear.\n\nNow layer on the bigger picture:\n\nNew capacity is already being announced across the industry. \n\nThe hyperscalers alone - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta - plan to pour $600-700 BILLION into AI infrastructure this year. That's 70%+ more than 2025.\n\nThey're consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing north of $400 billion to cover the rest.\n\nNobody can afford to stop spending because everyone else keeps spending. It's mutually assured destruction with better PR.\n\nAnd historically, the companies that spend the MOST on capex deliver the WORST stock returns.\n\nBCA Research just argued AI threatens all 3 pillars of Big Tech profitability;\n\n1. Economies of scale\n2. Network effects\n3. Proprietary tech\n\nGoldman Sachs compared software stocks to NEWSPAPERS in the early 2000s. The group that fell 95%.\n\nSoftware is now underperforming the Nasdaq by the widest margin this century.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been positioning for is already underway:\n\nMost MAG 7 names are DOWN year to date. Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up.\n\nLast year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P. This isn't starting. It's been happening since 2024.\n\nSo my framework is simple: \n\nValuation doesn't matter in the short run. \n\nBut the longer you go out, the more it matters.\n\nAnd money ain't free anymore.\n\nWhen capital was free, pigs flew. Unprofitable companies soared. Narrative crushed fundamentals. \n\nThat era is OVER.\n\nThe 60/40 portfolio hedges against recession. But recession isn't the risk. The risk is continued money printing, persistent inflation, and higher real rates.\n\nBonds don't protect you from that. Gold does. Energy does. Real assets do.\n\nYou don't need to get clever here. Just avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nThe regime is changing. The market's scorecard already tells you that every single day.\n\nAre you listening?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02004794648233399, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.02004794648233399, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.004628841624129798, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.004628841624129798, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.012936961278600778, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.012936961278600778, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.007276825525991848, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007276825525991848, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "ret_p1w": -0.08668180431256878, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08668180431256878, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07728322079744587, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07728322079744587, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "bench_c_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "ret_p1m": -0.063720869792801, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.063720869792801, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08662516125556852, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08662516125556852, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "bench_c_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "ret_p3m": -0.1629969270639826, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1629969270639826, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2726010372284777, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2726010372284777, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.063720869792801, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08662516125556852, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08662516125556852, "price_path": [-0.1522, -0.1521, -0.1448, -0.1463, -0.1453, -0.1256, -0.114, -0.1177, -0.1177, -0.1074, -0.1462, -0.1456, -0.1512, -0.1512, -0.1469, -0.1245, -0.115, -0.1235, -0.1186, -0.1123, -0.0956, -0.0969, -0.0877, -0.0933, -0.0976, -0.0976, -0.0635, -0.0499, -0.0323, -0.019, -0.0047, 0.0197, 0.0593, 0.0622, -0.047, -0.0851, -0.027, -0.0277, -0.0535, -0.0245, 0.0003, -0.0096, 0.0016, -0.0332, -0.0091, -0.0091, -0.04, -0.0184, -0.0157, 0.0037, 0.0308, 0.0166, 0.014, 0.0227, 0.0361, 0.0495, 0.0027, 0.0105, -0.0016, 0.0142, 0.0121, 0.0235, 0.02, 0.0, -0.0129, -0.0138, -0.0163, -0.0474, -0.0867, -0.1146, -0.1346, -0.1344, -0.1084, -0.1419, -0.1118, -0.112, -0.0784, -0.0622, -0.0803, -0.0803, -0.084, -0.0751, -0.0693, -0.0621, -0.0637, -0.0675, -0.0467, -0.0566, -0.0574, -0.0449, -0.0531, -0.0799, -0.0677, -0.0768, -0.072, -0.0792, -0.0963, -0.106, -0.0926, -0.0936, -0.1117, -0.1041, -0.0769, -0.0754, -0.0709, -0.069, -0.0727, -0.0779, -0.085, -0.1062, -0.1038, -0.1186, -0.106, -0.1069, -0.1136, -0.1136, -0.1133, -0.1251, -0.1159, -0.1066, -0.1191, -0.1177, -0.1264, -0.1191, -0.1513, -0.1491, -0.163, -0.1977, -0.1725, -0.1721, -0.1506, -0.1483, -0.1677, -0.1708, -0.1708, -0.1763, -0.1918, -0.2162, -0.2087, -0.1997, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2032087218341261733", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-03-12T13:32:01+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": "global", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy is up", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Avoid semis/Big Tech/software on peak-cycle valuations; rotate into gold, energy, and emerging markets as regime shifts away from free-money era.", "resolved_tickers": ["IXC"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "IXC tracks global energy sector", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks.\n\nThe global semiconductor industry is expected to hit $975 billion in sales this year. A historic peak. Revenue growth north of 25%.\n\nEvery cycle peak sounds the same: this boom is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. AI demand is permanent. The old rules don't apply.\n\n\"It's different this time,\" they say.\n\nI've heard those 4 words more times than any others in 45 years on Wall Street. They're always wrong.\n\nHere's how I think about it:\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, capital floods in to compete those profits away.\n\nThe higher the margins, the faster it happens.\n\nSemiconductor margins right now are at levels that would make a drug cartel blush.\n\nLook at Micron. The crowd says it's \"cheap\" because the PE looks low.\nExcept Micron's price-to-book ratio sits at roughly 7x. The 10-year median is 1.86x. The historical floor is 0.81x.\n\nThat's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend.\n\nThis is the oldest trap in cyclical investing. \n\nYou see it in shipping. You see it in commodities. Earnings spike, multiples look compressed, everyone piles in. Then the cycle rolls over and those \"cheap\" earnings disappear.\n\nNow layer on the bigger picture:\n\nNew capacity is already being announced across the industry. \n\nThe hyperscalers alone - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta - plan to pour $600-700 BILLION into AI infrastructure this year. That's 70%+ more than 2025.\n\nThey're consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing north of $400 billion to cover the rest.\n\nNobody can afford to stop spending because everyone else keeps spending. It's mutually assured destruction with better PR.\n\nAnd historically, the companies that spend the MOST on capex deliver the WORST stock returns.\n\nBCA Research just argued AI threatens all 3 pillars of Big Tech profitability;\n\n1. Economies of scale\n2. Network effects\n3. Proprietary tech\n\nGoldman Sachs compared software stocks to NEWSPAPERS in the early 2000s. The group that fell 95%.\n\nSoftware is now underperforming the Nasdaq by the widest margin this century.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been positioning for is already underway:\n\nMost MAG 7 names are DOWN year to date. Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up.\n\nLast year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P. This isn't starting. It's been happening since 2024.\n\nSo my framework is simple: \n\nValuation doesn't matter in the short run. \n\nBut the longer you go out, the more it matters.\n\nAnd money ain't free anymore.\n\nWhen capital was free, pigs flew. Unprofitable companies soared. Narrative crushed fundamentals. \n\nThat era is OVER.\n\nThe 60/40 portfolio hedges against recession. But recession isn't the risk. The risk is continued money printing, persistent inflation, and higher real rates.\n\nBonds don't protect you from that. Gold does. Energy does. Real assets do.\n\nYou don't need to get clever here. Just avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nThe regime is changing. The market's scorecard already tells you that every single day.\n\nAre you listening?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.008740957289456897, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.008740957289456897, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.024160062147661088, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.024160062147661088, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004835386463477809, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.004835386463477809, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010495522216086739, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010495522216086739, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "ret_p1w": 0.04128694940367694, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04128694940367694, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05068553291879985, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05068553291879985, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "bench_c_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "ret_p1m": 0.018783627709038075, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.018783627709038075, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.004120663753729437, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.004120663753729437, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "bench_c_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "ret_p3m": 0.003161560122924678, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.003161560122924678, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.10644255004157044, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.10644255004157044, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.018783627709038075, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.004120663753729437, "alpha_c_stated": -0.004120663753729437, "price_path": [-0.2218, -0.2453, -0.2327, -0.2416, -0.2381, -0.2312, -0.225, -0.2269, -0.2269, -0.2291, -0.2232, -0.2161, -0.2202, -0.2202, -0.2033, -0.1936, -0.2148, -0.2252, -0.2072, -0.2029, -0.2044, -0.1906, -0.1733, -0.1817, -0.178, -0.178, -0.1798, -0.1625, -0.1629, -0.1518, -0.1506, -0.1382, -0.1304, -0.119, -0.1185, -0.1339, -0.1068, -0.0924, -0.1077, -0.0904, -0.08, -0.0816, -0.0577, -0.0757, -0.0697, -0.0697, -0.08, -0.063, -0.0534, -0.0591, -0.0536, -0.0523, -0.0521, -0.0523, -0.0365, -0.0167, -0.0281, -0.0335, -0.0285, -0.0214, -0.0221, -0.0314, -0.0087, 0.0, 0.0048, 0.0112, 0.0244, 0.0255, 0.0413, 0.0348, 0.0396, 0.0575, 0.055, 0.0675, 0.0835, 0.0798, 0.0714, 0.0381, 0.0504, 0.0504, 0.0564, 0.0614, 0.027, 0.021, 0.0188, 0.0236, 0.0026, -0.0048, 0.0115, -0.0212, -0.0188, -0.0073, 0.0035, 0.0121, 0.0091, 0.0074, 0.0205, 0.0418, 0.0565, 0.0424, 0.0495, 0.0511, 0.0128, -0.0076, -0.0132, 0.0113, 0.0197, 0.0192, 0.0244, 0.043, 0.0638, 0.0716, 0.0485, 0.0426, 0.0443, 0.0443, 0.0179, 0.0004, 0.0, -0.0086, 0.0082, 0.0221, 0.0311, 0.0303, 0.0089, 0.019, 0.0032, 0.0158, 0.0045, 0.0073, -0.0266, -0.0313, -0.046, -0.0607, -0.0607, -0.0505, -0.0464, -0.0662, -0.06, -0.066, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2032087218341261733", "ticker_idx": 4, "ts": "2026-03-12T13:32:01+00:00", "symbol": "emerging markets", "kind": "sector", "geography": "global", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up. Last year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Avoid semis/Big Tech/software on peak-cycle valuations; rotate into gold, energy, and emerging markets as regime shifts away from free-money era.", "resolved_tickers": ["EEM"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "EEM is standard EM equity ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "STAY AWAY from semiconductor stocks.\n\nThe global semiconductor industry is expected to hit $975 billion in sales this year. A historic peak. Revenue growth north of 25%.\n\nEvery cycle peak sounds the same: this boom is STRUCTURAL, not cyclical. AI demand is permanent. The old rules don't apply.\n\n\"It's different this time,\" they say.\n\nI've heard those 4 words more times than any others in 45 years on Wall Street. They're always wrong.\n\nHere's how I think about it:\n\nWhen any industry generates obscene profits, capital floods in to compete those profits away.\n\nThe higher the margins, the faster it happens.\n\nSemiconductor margins right now are at levels that would make a drug cartel blush.\n\nLook at Micron. The crowd says it's \"cheap\" because the PE looks low.\nExcept Micron's price-to-book ratio sits at roughly 7x. The 10-year median is 1.86x. The historical floor is 0.81x.\n\nThat's not cheap. That's the most expensive this stock has EVER been relative to its asset base - dressed up in a low PE because earnings are wildly above trend.\n\nThis is the oldest trap in cyclical investing. \n\nYou see it in shipping. You see it in commodities. Earnings spike, multiples look compressed, everyone piles in. Then the cycle rolls over and those \"cheap\" earnings disappear.\n\nNow layer on the bigger picture:\n\nNew capacity is already being announced across the industry. \n\nThe hyperscalers alone - Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta - plan to pour $600-700 BILLION into AI infrastructure this year. That's 70%+ more than 2025.\n\nThey're consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing north of $400 billion to cover the rest.\n\nNobody can afford to stop spending because everyone else keeps spending. It's mutually assured destruction with better PR.\n\nAnd historically, the companies that spend the MOST on capex deliver the WORST stock returns.\n\nBCA Research just argued AI threatens all 3 pillars of Big Tech profitability;\n\n1. Economies of scale\n2. Network effects\n3. Proprietary tech\n\nGoldman Sachs compared software stocks to NEWSPAPERS in the early 2000s. The group that fell 95%.\n\nSoftware is now underperforming the Nasdaq by the widest margin this century.\n\nMeanwhile, the rotation I've been positioning for is already underway:\n\nMost MAG 7 names are DOWN year to date. Emerging markets are up. Energy is up. Gold miners are up.\n\nLast year, the EM ETF returned roughly DOUBLE the S&P. This isn't starting. It's been happening since 2024.\n\nSo my framework is simple: \n\nValuation doesn't matter in the short run. \n\nBut the longer you go out, the more it matters.\n\nAnd money ain't free anymore.\n\nWhen capital was free, pigs flew. Unprofitable companies soared. Narrative crushed fundamentals. \n\nThat era is OVER.\n\nThe 60/40 portfolio hedges against recession. But recession isn't the risk. The risk is continued money printing, persistent inflation, and higher real rates.\n\nBonds don't protect you from that. Gold does. Energy does. Real assets do.\n\nYou don't need to get clever here. Just avoid what's overpriced and own what's cheap.\n\nThe regime is changing. The market's scorecard already tells you that every single day.\n\nAre you listening?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03301145765553026, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03301145765553026, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.017592352797326072, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.017592352797326072, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "bench_c_m1d": 0.015419104858204191, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.002633871051145986, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.002633871051145986, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.003026264701462944, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.003026264701462944, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00566013575260893, "ret_p1w": 0.011764686871124308, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.011764686871124308, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.021163270386247213, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.021163270386247213, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "bench_c_p1w": -0.009398583515122905, "ret_p1m": 0.06338897692848011, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06338897692848011, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0404846854657126, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0404846854657126, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "bench_c_p1m": 0.022904291462767512, "ret_p3m": 0.15575067008243515, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15575067008243515, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.04614655991794003, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.04614655991794003, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10960411016449512, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06338897692848011, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0404846854657126, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0404846854657126, "price_path": [-0.0638, -0.0697, -0.0764, -0.0658, -0.0567, -0.0516, -0.0464, -0.0444, -0.0444, -0.0378, -0.0402, -0.0363, -0.0393, -0.0393, -0.0125, -0.0016, 0.0058, -0.0018, -0.0014, 0.0033, 0.0174, 0.0098, 0.014, 0.02, 0.0162, 0.0162, 0.0063, 0.023, 0.0307, 0.0372, 0.039, 0.0595, 0.0667, 0.0613, 0.0378, 0.0409, 0.0465, 0.0325, 0.0277, 0.0548, 0.0625, 0.0641, 0.0809, 0.0687, 0.0732, 0.0732, 0.0688, 0.0745, 0.0718, 0.0946, 0.0825, 0.0996, 0.1117, 0.1011, 0.0989, 0.0799, 0.0258, 0.0369, 0.0119, 0.0065, 0.0263, 0.0304, 0.033, 0.0, -0.0026, 0.0251, 0.0316, 0.0107, 0.0118, -0.023, 0.0063, -0.0076, 0.0083, -0.026, -0.0307, -0.0386, -0.0028, 0.0049, -0.0063, -0.0063, 0.0028, 0.0063, 0.0613, 0.0585, 0.0634, 0.0723, 0.0929, 0.0922, 0.0966, 0.1175, 0.1094, 0.0931, 0.1129, 0.0948, 0.1192, 0.1175, 0.1061, 0.1008, 0.1236, 0.1261, 0.1255, 0.1484, 0.1851, 0.1693, 0.193, 0.1921, 0.1558, 0.1802, 0.1831, 0.1426, 0.1408, 0.1284, 0.1494, 0.1594, 0.1568, 0.1568, 0.2011, 0.2009, 0.2047, 0.2046, 0.2306, 0.2432, 0.2277, 0.2133, 0.1342, 0.1545, 0.1558, 0.1354, 0.1853, 0.1919, 0.2311, 0.2115, 0.2101, 0.2495, 0.2495, 0.2569, 0.1856, 0.187, 0.1995, 0.1859, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2050171586586501379", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-01T11:12:51+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am publicly short from 475x", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Publicly short from $475; live short position disclosed.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@NikosGalariotis I am publicly short from 475x\nEnd of discussion.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 There is only one thing to do then. SHORT it like there is no tomorrow and gain from the 400 to 50 dollar spread . I am waiting for a screenshot of that. Otherwise you can put your opinion where it belongs.End of discussion.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "NikosGalariotis", "ret_m1d": -0.0661511618323053, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0661511618323053, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.06338971325421228, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.06338971325421228, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0027614485780930176, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0027614485780930176, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.037421713333711804, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.037421713333711804, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04108510548046829, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04108510548046829, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0036633921467564834, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0036633921467564834, "ret_p1w": 0.05881355916146158, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05881355916146158, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0352653766771005, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0352653766771005, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.02354818248436108, "bench_c_p1w": 0.02354818248436108, "ret_p1m": -0.1545972776018768, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1545972776018768, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20717476263812185, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.20717476263812185, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05257748503624504, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05257748503624504, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1545972776018768, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20717476263812185, "alpha_c_stated": 0.20717476263812185, "price_path": [-0.2478, -0.2714, -0.3961, -0.2384, -0.2186, -0.2493, -0.2884, -0.3058, -0.2443, -0.2443, -0.2737, -0.2933, -0.2693, -0.2603, -0.3017, -0.2967, -0.2344, -0.2471, -0.2691, -0.2231, -0.2511, -0.1734, -0.2109, -0.2463, -0.2157, -0.2185, -0.2192, -0.2248, -0.2117, -0.1674, -0.1518, -0.2066, -0.2197, -0.2343, -0.22, -0.231, -0.2147, -0.2497, -0.2886, -0.3146, -0.2956, -0.307, -0.3236, -0.3236, -0.2793, -0.3017, -0.2758, -0.2727, -0.2739, -0.2529, -0.2244, -0.1898, -0.1593, -0.0601, -0.0359, -0.0745, 0.0124, -0.0265, -0.0347, -0.045, -0.0647, -0.1071, -0.0662, 0.0, 0.0374, 0.0549, 0.0545, 0.0151, 0.0588, 0.1059, 0.0409, 0.0049, 0.0553, 0.0014, -0.0595, -0.0708, -0.0641, -0.0695, -0.0975, -0.0975, -0.0973, -0.1296, -0.1441, -0.102, -0.1546, -0.2319, -0.2857, -0.2698, -0.3202, -0.282, -0.3395, -0.3489, -0.3218, -0.3003, -0.2598, -0.3068, -0.3421, -0.3648, -0.3648, -0.3822, -0.4139, -0.4687, -0.5184, -0.5354, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2028227775274877329", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-01T21:55:58+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is so expensive that one is virtually GUARANTEED a poor return. That is why no institutions own the stock!!!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: overvalued on simple math, no institutional ownership, virtually guaranteed poor return.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@VolaarRide @Stocktwits @open_army_japan @iamjohnbaiano @CapitanSteveo @APompliano @ericjackson @nejatian @philrosenn @rabois @natbrunell @andrewrsorkin FALSE. TOTALLY FALSE. \nIt’s simple math.\n$OPEN is so expensive that one is virtually GUARANTEED a poor return. \nThat is why no institutions own the stock!!!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @Stocktwits @open_army_japan @iamjohnbaiano @CapitanSteveo @APompliano @ericjackson @nejatian @philrosenn @rabois @natbrunell @andrewrsorkin If you value $OPEN on trailing earnings, it looks expensive.\n\nIf you model operating leverage and a successful turnaround, today’s multiple won’t matter.\n\nThat’s the entire debate.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "VolaarRide", "ret_m1d": 0.07326730130385206, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07326730130385206, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07383550125516714, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07508874688951028, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0005681999513150737, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018214455856582212, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.015841662875575313, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.015841662875575313, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.007027411963089647, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010832643412216458, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008814250912485666, "bench_c_p1d": -0.005009019463358855, "ret_p1w": 0.005940540958044194, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.005940540958044194, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0177561677618846, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02734301172031428, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011815626803840407, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021402470762270087, "ret_p1m": -0.07326739572704821, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07326739572704821, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.023347686599652584, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.009160802438029969, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04991970912739563, "bench_c_p1m": -0.06410659328901824, "ret_p3m": 0.003960392113094846, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.003960392113094846, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09843306525577278, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.013992710558485166, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10239345736886762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.017953102671580012, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07326739572704821, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.023347686599652584, "alpha_c_stated": 0.009160802438029969, "price_path": [0.3743, 0.501, 0.4158, 0.396, 0.4673, 0.3861, 0.396, 0.299, 0.2812, 0.3327, 0.2119, 0.2436, 0.2594, 0.2713, 0.2416, 0.2436, 0.2436, 0.1901, 0.1545, 0.1564, 0.1545, 0.1545, 0.202, 0.2515, 0.3723, 0.2119, 0.2733, 0.4436, 0.3901, 0.3406, 0.3149, 0.2475, 0.3208, 0.3208, 0.2653, 0.2832, 0.2713, 0.1901, 0.1624, 0.1505, 0.1406, 0.105, 0.0198, -0.0455, 0.0158, -0.0099, -0.0693, -0.0337, -0.0218, -0.0713, -0.0574, -0.1327, -0.1198, -0.1198, -0.1426, -0.0832, -0.0792, -0.0099, -0.0535, 0.0119, -0.0139, 0.0713, 0.0733, 0.0, -0.0158, -0.0337, 0.0257, -0.0099, 0.0059, -0.0079, 0.0436, -0.0416, -0.0198, 0.0257, 0.101, 0.0455, 0.0178, -0.0277, 0.0317, 0.0257, 0.0099, -0.0297, -0.0495, -0.1228, -0.0733, -0.095, -0.0614, -0.0614, -0.0871, -0.099, -0.0812, -0.1465, -0.1446, -0.1366, -0.1069, -0.0455, 0.0436, 0.0475, 0.0594, 0.0792, 0.0752, 0.0337, 0.0911, 0.0673, 0.0851, 0.105, 0.0653, 0.0772, 0.0158, 0.0356, 0.0812, 0.0535, -0.0079, -0.0396, -0.0673, -0.0931, -0.1149, -0.1327, -0.1525, -0.1485, -0.1287, -0.095, -0.103, -0.103, -0.1129, -0.0594, 0.004, -0.002, 0.0515, 0.0713, -0.0356, -0.0198, -0.1248, -0.1465, -0.1406, -0.1129, -0.1149, -0.1208, -0.0871, -0.0594, -0.1188, -0.1149, -0.1149, -0.1525, -0.1683, -0.1525, -0.1485, -0.1347, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2026406517558186332", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-24T21:18:57+00:00", "symbol": "IREN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$IREN will decline 90%", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish IREN with a 90% decline forecast.", "resolved_tickers": ["IREN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@BitcoinAIGuy $IREN will decline 90%", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 $IREN fixes this", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "BitcoinAIGuy", "ret_m1d": 0.032250784079291606, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.032250784079291606, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04061848118859157, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04940908261521526, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008367697109299965, "bench_c_m1d": -0.017158298535923655, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0047695413352739635, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0047695413352739635, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.01032398691448111, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007376164706030197, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005554445579207146, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01214570604130416, "ret_p1w": -0.004315208539099946, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.004315208539099946, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.007255151474769739, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0028180533683942466, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011570360013869685, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007133261907494193, "ret_p1m": -0.14944352029942298, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.14944352029942298, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08264951077243254, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09993766935708337, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.06679400952699044, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04950585094233961, "ret_p3m": 0.29071095631682, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.29071095631682, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.21204640628701887, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2842141622826455, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0786645500298011, "bench_c_p3m": 0.006496794034174469, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.14944352029942298, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08264951077243254, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09993766935708337, "price_path": [0.0859, 0.1013, -0.0661, -0.0016, 0.055, 0.0154, 0.0525, 0.0638, -0.0025, -0.002, -0.0886, -0.1942, -0.169, -0.2328, -0.1869, -0.0933, -0.0452, -0.0445, -0.0466, -0.0466, -0.0847, -0.1049, -0.1301, -0.1422, -0.1422, -0.0302, 0.0956, 0.0427, -0.0092, 0.0375, 0.0454, 0.1431, 0.2035, 0.201, 0.1785, 0.3132, 0.3132, 0.2323, 0.2146, 0.1869, 0.2873, 0.1892, 0.3625, 0.4295, 0.3591, 0.2205, 0.2055, 0.2353, 0.0207, -0.0963, -0.05, 0.0481, -0.025, -0.0309, -0.0908, -0.0411, -0.0411, -0.0695, -0.0443, -0.0168, -0.092, -0.0379, 0.0323, 0.0, 0.0048, -0.07, -0.06, -0.1176, -0.0043, -0.0887, -0.1665, -0.1179, -0.1342, -0.0466, -0.0604, -0.0556, 0.0207, -0.0243, -0.0413, -0.0538, -0.0622, -0.0425, -0.0661, -0.0591, -0.1494, -0.203, -0.2819, -0.2214, -0.2258, -0.2103, -0.2103, -0.2021, -0.1883, -0.1635, -0.1583, -0.107, -0.0218, 0.0759, 0.1088, 0.0834, 0.0929, 0.1065, 0.0259, 0.099, 0.1815, 0.1501, 0.0983, 0.0093, -0.0266, 0.0336, 0.037, 0.1238, 0.2432, 0.385, 0.2912, 0.39, 0.2526, 0.2846, 0.253, 0.3264, 0.2024, 0.146, 0.0843, 0.1971, 0.3186, 0.2907, 0.2907, 0.3577, 0.5408, 0.4547, 0.4431, 0.4838, 0.5126, 0.4872, 0.405, 0.2344, 0.3443, 0.2269, 0.1701, 0.288, 0.3575, 0.382, 0.3441, 0.3198, 0.3618, 0.3618, 0.2916, 0.2428, 0.1424, 0.0843, 0.0722, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2034285421933342725", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-18T15:06:54+00:00", "symbol": "FRPT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SHORT FRESH PET STOCK... And today's 10% drop isn't the end. It's the beginning.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short FRPT: collapsing growth, guidance cuts, Blue Buffalo price undercutting, Costco private label threat, rising input costs, and negative sequential revenue signal further downside ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["FRPT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLP", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Packaged Foods'", "bench_c_industry": "Packaged Foods", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "FRESH PET IS A REAL DOG OF A STOCK\n\nMy good friend Tom Chanos said at last week’s conference:\n\nSHORT FRESH PET STOCK\n\nAnd the market finally started to figure it out.\n\nFRPT dropped 10% yesterday on reports that Costco is developing its own fresh dog food under the Kirkland Signature brand to compete directly with Fresh Pet and Blue Buffalo.\n\nThis is a death blow for a company that was already in serious trouble.\n\nFor anyone who's been following the Fresh Pet short thesis that was presented at my Best Stock Ideas Summit last week, this is the nail in the coffin.\n\nThe case was already devastating BEFORE this news:\n\nFresh Pet's Q4 2025 revenue growth came in at 8.6%. Down from 43% in 2022. Down from 22% in 2024. That's an 80% collapse in the growth rate in 3 years.\n\nThey guided 2026 at 7% to 10%. The lowest in company history.\n\nFOUR consecutive quarters of guidance cuts. One year ago they guided 21% to 24%. Now 7% to 10%.\n\nBlue Buffalo, backed by General Mills and its $19 billion in revenue, had already launched its \"Love Made Fresh\" line into Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Costco. At Walmart and Target, Blue Buffalo undercuts Fresh Pet by 30% to 38% on price per pound.\n\nThat alone was a serious problem for a stock trading at 30 times earnings.\n\nNow add Costco private label on top.\n\nThis would explain something that was flagged at my conference: on a recent Costco store check, the Fresh Pet refrigerator was MISSING. Replaced by a regular Costco refrigerator stocking both Fresh Pet and Blue Buffalo side by side.\n\nIf Costco launches Kirkland fresh dog food, it will be cheaper than both. That's what Kirkland does. That's the entire playbook.\n\nFresh Pet had the luxury of operating as a monopoly in refrigerated pet food for years. But then First Blue Buffalo entered. And now Costco private label. \n\nThe monopoly is being dismantled from multiple directions simultaneously.\n\nAnd Fresh Pet's response to Blue Buffalo? They CUT their marketing budget by $13 million last quarter. Right as 2 massive competitors enter the market. \n\nThe earnings beat everyone celebrated came ENTIRELY from expense cuts, not business strength.\n\nMeanwhile, input costs are surging:\n\nBeef prices rose 15% in 2025. The USDA forecasts another 5.5% increase in 2026. Cattle inventories at a 75 year low. Fresh Pet can't raise prices because the competition is undercutting them.\n\nSequential revenue went negative for the first time in 17 quarters. Feeding your dog isn't cyclical. So if sequential revenue goes negative, they're LOSING existing customers - before Costco even enters the picture.\n\nOver the last five years, Fresh Pet is down 60%.\n\nAnd today's 10% drop isn't the end. It's the beginning.\n\nIncredible call from Tom at the conference last week!\n\n---\n\nThis is just 2 minutes from a 7 HOUR conference where 15 elite investors share:\n\n- Long- and short-term stock picks\n- Real, actionable market insights\n- How to navigate this volatile market\n\nGet the full replay with Tom Chanos + all the other replays:\nhttps://t.co/talnERiTN2", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.035637476946277946, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.035637476946277946, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021486372956448285, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01071016361436361, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.014151103989829661, "bench_c_m1d": 0.024927313331914336, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.029646702771321976, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.029646702771321976, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027182321728010717, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.021539244760662712, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002464381043311259, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008107458010659263, "ret_p1w": -0.07680491731482342, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07680491731482342, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07254714593350009, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06868287569563525, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0042577713813233276, "bench_c_p1w": -0.00812204161918817, "ret_p1m": 0.03440857014243992, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03440857014243992, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.029311334421586288, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04350416111559763, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.06371990456402621, "bench_c_p1m": -0.009095590973157708, "ret_p3m": -0.1629799853201539, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1629799853201539, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3073058836410816, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.20316811013078895, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.14432589832092768, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04018812481063505, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03440857014243992, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.029311334421586288, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04350416111559763, "price_path": [-0.0382, -0.0174, -0.0091, -0.0166, -0.0166, -0.0143, -0.0316, -0.0763, -0.0641, -0.0641, -0.076, -0.0762, -0.0432, -0.0465, -0.0487, -0.016, -0.0146, -0.0207, -0.0292, -0.0283, -0.0131, -0.0131, 0.0395, 0.0731, 0.1152, 0.0991, 0.1077, 0.106, 0.0983, 0.0813, 0.0707, 0.0754, 0.0736, 0.063, 0.0349, 0.0737, 0.074, 0.0657, 0.0525, 0.0429, 0.0402, 0.0402, 0.1012, 0.1209, 0.147, 0.1445, 0.2071, 0.2425, 0.2232, 0.2482, 0.2972, 0.2959, 0.292, 0.3134, 0.3086, 0.2694, 0.2724, 0.2564, 0.2339, 0.1988, 0.1767, 0.1578, 0.0356, 0.0, -0.0296, -0.0086, -0.0065, -0.0948, -0.0768, -0.0969, -0.1409, -0.1306, -0.0943, -0.0771, -0.0876, -0.0876, -0.0935, -0.0316, -0.0011, 0.0235, -0.0046, 0.0484, 0.0616, 0.0567, 0.0344, 0.0676, 0.0464, -0.0041, 0.0132, 0.0071, 0.0161, 0.0054, 0.0084, 0.016, 0.035, 0.0008, -0.0237, -0.0757, -0.1563, -0.1418, -0.1846, -0.2375, -0.2124, -0.253, -0.2421, -0.2419, -0.2558, -0.272, -0.2573, -0.212, -0.2077, -0.2077, -0.2166, -0.1962, -0.1845, -0.2074, -0.2409, -0.2341, -0.232, -0.2439, -0.2359, -0.2104, -0.2143, -0.2227, -0.1978, -0.1911, -0.163, -0.123, -0.145, -0.155, -0.155, -0.2178, -0.1802, -0.1899, -0.18, -0.1178, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2008172482709078441", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-05T13:43:24+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect $TSLA auto deliveries to decline again in 2026 for a third consecutive year. SELL", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Short TSLA; expects auto deliveries to decline for a third consecutive year in 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I expect $TSLA auto deliveries to decline again in 2026 for a third consecutive year. SELL https://t.co/BUtOpfcVIO", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@garyblack00 @gnoble79 Tesla is losing market share more rapidly that the EV market is growing and gross margins are also dropping. Without any new models coming out, sales will continue to decline and more rapidly.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2046556182584672399", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-21T11:46:31+00:00", "symbol": "VAL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Long $val vs short $tsla up over 100% since mid December. Much more where that came from IMHO.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Still long VAL/TDW and short TSLA; pair trade has 100%+ return since mid-Dec with more upside expected; TSLA seen as chronic underperformer.", "resolved_tickers": ["VAL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas Drilling'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas Drilling", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "https://t.co/D55y4kLlB1\n\nOnly up 65% on $VAL and 50% on $TDW since I made the call on 12/24/25.\n\n$TSLA down 17% in the same period. \n\nGot that Mikey?\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/6k23TWX2vE\n\n---\n\nMy energy call on 12/14/25\n\n---\n\nLong $val vs short $tsla up over 100% since mid December. Much more where that came from IMHO. \n$TSLA is unchanged and has massively underperformed over the last four years whereas the energy stocks have major upside IMHO. https://t.co/T5dKz5mAjS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.027694694726589697, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.027694694726589697, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.034284731841991656, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013375713201235206, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01431898152535449, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0021048238448211354, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0021048238448211354, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.008021888250297815, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00988730770930002, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "bench_c_p1d": 0.011992131554121155, "ret_p1w": 0.12961122203094044, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.12961122203094044, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.11880286587256927, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.09667764704722881, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03293357498371163, "ret_p1m": 0.21402459746638502, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.21402459746638502, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.16123233812006976, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.14368275717597534, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "bench_c_p1m": 0.07034184029040969, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.21402459746638502, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.16123233812006976, "alpha_c_stated": 0.14368275717597534, "price_path": [-0.398, -0.3989, -0.3589, -0.3543, -0.3699, -0.3487, -0.3605, -0.3583, -0.3498, -0.312, -0.3552, -0.3086, -0.0715, -0.1159, -0.0205, -0.0153, 0.063, 0.063, -0.0145, 0.0081, 0.0246, 0.0607, 0.0358, 0.0626, 0.0433, 0.0474, 0.0618, 0.0258, 0.004, 0.0462, 0.0035, -0.0306, 0.006, 0.0091, 0.0345, 0.028, 0.0384, 0.0141, 0.0777, 0.0251, 0.0599, 0.0249, 0.0569, 0.0852, 0.1107, 0.1293, 0.1326, 0.0901, 0.0861, 0.0677, 0.0861, 0.0861, 0.0794, 0.1045, 0.1075, 0.0866, 0.0811, 0.0975, 0.0193, 0.0155, 0.0473, -0.0189, -0.0277, 0.0, 0.0021, 0.0007, 0.0102, 0.0784, 0.1296, 0.1519, 0.1297, 0.1325, 0.1357, 0.0281, 0.028, 0.0167, 0.0526, 0.0781, 0.0768, 0.0962, 0.144, 0.1679, 0.2565, 0.2302, 0.214, 0.1242, 0.1207, 0.1207, 0.0671, 0.0187, 0.0263, 0.0261, 0.0356, 0.0273, 0.0198, 0.0292, -0.0192, 0.0124, -0.0308, -0.0143, -0.0054, -0.0035, -0.0399, -0.0845, -0.08, -0.1297, -0.1297, -0.1147, -0.1299, -0.1634, -0.1433, -0.1541, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2046556182584672399", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-04-21T11:46:31+00:00", "symbol": "TDW", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the energy stocks have major upside IMHO", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Still long VAL/TDW and short TSLA; pair trade has 100%+ return since mid-Dec with more upside expected; TSLA seen as chronic underperformer.", "resolved_tickers": ["TDW"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas Equipment & Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "https://t.co/D55y4kLlB1\n\nOnly up 65% on $VAL and 50% on $TDW since I made the call on 12/24/25.\n\n$TSLA down 17% in the same period. \n\nGot that Mikey?\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/6k23TWX2vE\n\n---\n\nMy energy call on 12/14/25\n\n---\n\nLong $val vs short $tsla up over 100% since mid December. Much more where that came from IMHO. \n$TSLA is unchanged and has massively underperformed over the last four years whereas the energy stocks have major upside IMHO. https://t.co/T5dKz5mAjS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.013592456805957331, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.013592456805957331, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.007002419690555373, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.027911438331311822, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01431898152535449, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.021104048946016585, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.021104048946016585, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010977336850897634, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.00911191739189543, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "bench_c_p1d": 0.011992131554121155, "ret_p1w": 0.03338494492272326, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03338494492272326, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.02257658876435209, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0004513699390116255, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03293357498371163, "ret_p1m": 0.00822695587713973, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.00822695587713973, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04456530346917553, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.062114884413269955, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "bench_c_p1m": 0.07034184029040969, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.00822695587713973, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04456530346917553, "alpha_c_stated": -0.062114884413269955, "price_path": [-0.2931, -0.2801, -0.2645, -0.2438, -0.2732, -0.2552, -0.2549, -0.2293, -0.2208, -0.1953, -0.2445, -0.2089, -0.1939, -0.1822, -0.1515, -0.1942, -0.1662, -0.1662, -0.1666, -0.1482, -0.1195, -0.1251, -0.0591, -0.0529, -0.0634, -0.0746, -0.0531, -0.0477, 0.0453, -0.0008, -0.0428, -0.0725, -0.0342, -0.0826, -0.0878, -0.0891, -0.0848, -0.1146, -0.0922, -0.1025, -0.1143, -0.1358, -0.1005, -0.0831, -0.0721, -0.0366, -0.0175, -0.0236, -0.0038, -0.0051, 0.0061, 0.0061, 0.0173, 0.0284, 0.0473, 0.0455, 0.0266, 0.0472, 0.0049, -0.0031, 0.006, 0.0165, 0.0136, 0.0, 0.0211, 0.0209, 0.0554, 0.0864, 0.0334, 0.0532, 0.0651, 0.0475, 0.0383, 0.0136, -0.0256, -0.0717, -0.0323, -0.0303, -0.0283, -0.0331, -0.0253, -0.0181, 0.0171, 0.0001, 0.0082, -0.0318, -0.0546, -0.0546, -0.0612, -0.1047, -0.1092, -0.1238, -0.111, -0.1068, -0.1177, -0.1143, -0.1358, -0.1136, -0.1278, -0.1244, -0.1151, -0.083, -0.1135, -0.1536, -0.1927, -0.2289, -0.2289, -0.2089, -0.2082, -0.2298, -0.2159, -0.1973, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2046556182584672399", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-04-21T11:46:31+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "short $tsla ... $TSLA is unchanged and has massively underperformed over the last four years", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Still long VAL/TDW and short TSLA; pair trade has 100%+ return since mid-Dec with more upside expected; TSLA seen as chronic underperformer.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "https://t.co/D55y4kLlB1\n\nOnly up 65% on $VAL and 50% on $TDW since I made the call on 12/24/25.\n\n$TSLA down 17% in the same period. \n\nGot that Mikey?\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/6k23TWX2vE\n\n---\n\nMy energy call on 12/14/25\n\n---\n\nLong $val vs short $tsla up over 100% since mid December. Much more where that came from IMHO. \n$TSLA is unchanged and has massively underperformed over the last four years whereas the energy stocks have major upside IMHO. https://t.co/T5dKz5mAjS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.015734139953914816, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.015734139953914816, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.009144102838512858, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008169220796639065, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007564919157275751, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0028207553957204645, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0028207553957204645, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.007305956699398486, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00315700972299493, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0003362543272744656, "ret_p1w": -0.02691378306679615, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02691378306679615, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03772213922516732, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.010439055956170562, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "bench_c_p1w": -0.016474727110625587, "ret_p1m": 0.07980952141770503, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07980952141770503, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02701726207138977, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08846718681798293, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "bench_c_p1m": -0.008657665400277903, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07980952141770503, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02701726207138977, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08846718681798293, "price_path": [0.1629, 0.1621, 0.1262, 0.1151, 0.1166, 0.078, 0.1138, 0.0916, 0.092, 0.0507, 0.0279, 0.0639, 0.08, 0.1004, 0.1083, 0.0793, 0.0803, 0.0803, 0.0627, 0.0644, 0.0654, 0.0657, 0.0347, 0.0594, 0.0802, 0.0573, 0.0416, 0.0437, 0.0156, 0.0505, 0.0495, 0.0267, 0.0317, 0.0332, 0.0554, 0.0222, 0.0124, 0.0237, 0.0333, 0.0165, -0.0158, -0.0478, -0.0144, -0.0088, -0.0012, -0.037, -0.0636, -0.0806, -0.038, -0.0134, -0.0668, -0.0668, -0.087, -0.1029, -0.1117, -0.1056, -0.097, -0.088, -0.0575, 0.0143, 0.0064, 0.0367, 0.0157, 0.0, 0.0028, -0.0329, -0.0262, -0.0201, -0.0269, -0.0352, -0.0124, 0.0114, 0.0158, 0.0076, 0.0319, 0.0657, 0.1085, 0.1516, 0.1217, 0.1523, 0.1472, 0.0927, 0.061, 0.0458, 0.0798, 0.0813, 0.1025, 0.1025, 0.1221, 0.1396, 0.1441, 0.1278, 0.0762, 0.0966, 0.0965, 0.0829, 0.0119, 0.0583, 0.0266, -0.0125, 0.0329, 0.0518, 0.064, 0.0472, 0.0258, 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.0482, -0.0124, -0.0282, -0.0292, -0.0174, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2023050775589441761", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-15T15:04:26+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "whenever a management team is consumed by what the shorts are saying it is usually because the shorts are right. Et tu, @nejatian ? Et tu? $OPEN has lost money every single year since inception. Cumulative losses total nearly $4B", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: management threatening short-sellers is a tell the shorts are right; $4B cumulative losses under current leadership confirm the bear case.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "YOU WOULD THINK SO. \n\nBut what do I know? $OPEN \n\nAs Peter Lynch always says,  “A company's earnings and stock price are 100% correlated in the long run.\"\n\nIn my experience it is usually the case that whenever a management team is consumed by what the shorts are saying it is usually because the shorts are right. \n\nEt tu, @nejatian ? Et tu?\n\n(Note to self, $OPEN has lost money every single year since inception. Cumulative losses total nearly $4B - the vast majorly of which occurred under the leadership of @rabois and @ericwu01 )\n\n@ericjackson @APompliano @m3_melody @Seawolfcap @RealJimChanos", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@rabois @gnoble79 @ericjackson If shorts were right and the stock dropped this much, shouldn’t leadership reflect instead of threatening lawsuits?", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02655894918743873, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02655894918743873, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.02816983307269616, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03657260425176778, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.010013655064329052, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06928410993552458, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06928410993552458, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06424640238494783, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08271144291666632, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013427332981141737, "ret_p1w": 0.18013861975792977, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18013861975792977, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.17354861572061098, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.18491780410764613, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004779184349716359, "ret_p1m": 0.21939960804645642, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.21939960804645642, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.25076812790502356, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.2630955494030335, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04369594135657706, "ret_p3m": 0.011547388363939648, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.011547388363939648, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.07388678694159778, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0210929730736531, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": -0.00954558470971345, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.21939960804645642, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.25076812790502356, "alpha_c_stated": -0.2630955494030335, "price_path": [0.4226, 0.5589, 0.776, 0.7875, 0.7968, 0.7968, 0.7783, 0.649, 0.6143, 0.6028, 0.7506, 0.6513, 0.6282, 0.7113, 0.6166, 0.6282, 0.515, 0.4942, 0.5543, 0.4134, 0.4503, 0.4688, 0.4827, 0.448, 0.4503, 0.4503, 0.388, 0.3464, 0.3487, 0.3464, 0.3464, 0.4018, 0.4596, 0.6005, 0.4134, 0.485, 0.6836, 0.6212, 0.5635, 0.5335, 0.455, 0.5404, 0.5404, 0.4758, 0.4965, 0.4827, 0.388, 0.3557, 0.3418, 0.3303, 0.2887, 0.1894, 0.1132, 0.1848, 0.1547, 0.0855, 0.127, 0.1409, 0.0831, 0.0993, 0.0115, 0.0266, 0.0266, 0.0, 0.0693, 0.0739, 0.1547, 0.1039, 0.1801, 0.1501, 0.2494, 0.2517, 0.1663, 0.1478, 0.127, 0.1963, 0.1547, 0.1732, 0.157, 0.2171, 0.1178, 0.1432, 0.1963, 0.2841, 0.2194, 0.1871, 0.1339, 0.2032, 0.1963, 0.1778, 0.1316, 0.1085, 0.0231, 0.0808, 0.0554, 0.0947, 0.0947, 0.0647, 0.0508, 0.0716, -0.0046, -0.0023, 0.0069, 0.0416, 0.1132, 0.2171, 0.2217, 0.2356, 0.2587, 0.254, 0.2055, 0.2725, 0.2448, 0.2656, 0.2887, 0.2425, 0.2564, 0.1848, 0.2079, 0.261, 0.2286, 0.157, 0.1201, 0.0878, 0.0577, 0.0323, 0.0115, -0.0115, -0.0069, 0.0162, 0.0554, 0.0462, 0.0462, 0.0346, 0.097, 0.1709, 0.164, 0.2263, 0.2494, 0.1247, 0.1432, 0.0208, -0.0046, 0.0023, 0.0346, 0.0323, 0.0254, 0.0647, 0.097, 0.0277, 0.0323, 0.0323, -0.0115, -0.03, -0.0115, -0.0069, 0.0092, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006507090563707054", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-31T23:25:44+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "expect $TSLA to go MUCH lower", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Expects TSLA to go much lower; holding short position and monitoring fundamentals.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@JKFortySeven I don’t have a particular target price in mind. Let’s just say so expect $TSLA to go MUCH lower. I will be watching the fundamentals and will adjust my position accordingly.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 So like right now, youre really profitable off the 465 and I think 485? Do you have a target to take profit? Ive been up 2k on stuff and didnt take my profits, thought itd keep going) then got stuck for months because the trend shifted. Thanks for replying man", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JKFortySeven", "ret_m1d": 0.026593908968212343, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.026593908968212343, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.028423548353842976, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.017637361069777535, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008956547898434808, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.031045280151877908, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.031045280151877908, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.024385073043633243, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.014568708932490848, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01647657121938706, "ret_p1w": 0.015842222305509024, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.015842222305509024, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0001128510704759833, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03536186942391506, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.051204091729424084, "ret_p1m": -0.03711737734555942, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06770470393027994, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03058732658472052, "ret_p3m": -0.12968246309669917, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.12968246309669917, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09141892029835241, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05930285557113557, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0703796075255636, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06770470393027994, "price_path": [-0.0114, 0.0014, -0.0058, -0.0561, -0.005, -0.0202, -0.0067, -0.0213, 0.0028, 0.0214, 0.0103, 0.0021, 0.0249, -0.0099, 0.0328, 0.0513, 0.0535, 0.0046, 0.0422, 0.0692, 0.0141, 0.0548, 0.0179, -0.0195, 0.0163, 0.0035, -0.0171, -0.0824, -0.077, -0.0665, -0.0841, -0.0778, -0.0978, -0.1072, -0.0463, -0.0426, -0.0262, -0.0262, -0.018, -0.0181, -0.0202, 0.0198, 0.0376, 0.0386, 0.0034, 0.0162, 0.0305, 0.0201, 0.0477, 0.085, 0.1183, 0.0666, 0.1034, 0.0985, 0.1156, 0.1084, 0.108, 0.108, 0.0847, 0.0492, 0.0373, 0.0266, 0.0266, 0.0, 0.031, -0.0117, -0.0152, -0.0052, 0.0158, 0.0249, 0.0208, 0.0026, 0.0011, -0.0013, -0.0013, -0.043, -0.0151, 0.0258, 0.0251, -0.0066, -0.0164, -0.0151, -0.0491, -0.0175, -0.0371, -0.0368, -0.0732, -0.0933, -0.0615, -0.0474, -0.0294, -0.0224, -0.0479, -0.0471, -0.0471, -0.0626, -0.0611, -0.0602, -0.0599, -0.0873, -0.0655, -0.0472, -0.0673, -0.0812, -0.0793, -0.1042, -0.0733, -0.0742, -0.0944, -0.0899, -0.0886, -0.0691, -0.0983, -0.107, -0.097, -0.0886, -0.1034, -0.1319, -0.16, -0.1306, -0.1256, -0.119, -0.1506, -0.174, -0.189, -0.1514, -0.1297, -0.1769, -0.1769, -0.1946, -0.2087, -0.2164, -0.211, -0.2034, -0.1955, -0.1686, -0.1053, -0.1122, -0.0855, -0.104, -0.1179, -0.1154, -0.1469, -0.141, -0.1356, -0.1416, -0.149, -0.1288, -0.1079, -0.104, -0.1112, -0.0898, -0.06, -0.0222, 0.0158, -0.0105, 0.0164, 0.0119, -0.0361, -0.0641, -0.0775, -0.0475, -0.0462, -0.0275, -0.0275, -0.0102, 0.0052, 0.0092, -0.0052, -0.0507, -0.0327, -0.0328, -0.0448, -0.1074, -0.0665, -0.0945, -0.1289, -0.0888, -0.0722, -0.0615, -0.0763, -0.0952, -0.0858, -0.0858, -0.0754, -0.1289, -0.1428, -0.1437, -0.1332, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2038381616842629172", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-29T22:23:43+00:00", "symbol": "small-cap energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": "energy", "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Nobody is looking at small-cap energy companies trading at 5x earnings. Nobody is looking at commodity producers with fortress balance sheets. Nobody is looking at emerging markets trading at historic discounts to US equities. THAT'S where the edge lives.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish mega-cap/S&P 500 passive exposure on AI capex with no returns; long small-cap energy, commodity producers, and emerging markets as overlooked value plays.", "resolved_tickers": ["PSCE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "PSCE tracks S&P Small Cap 600 Energy index", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "A $470 million Buffett disciple just closed his fund and declared stock picking is dead.\n\nThis is literally the most BULLISH SIGNAL for active management I've seen in years.\n\nGuy Spier ran Aquamarine Fund for 28 years out of Zurich. Returned 1,186% since 1997. Won a charity lunch with Buffett in 2007.\n\nAnd he just gave up.\n\nHis reason is that AI is making research obsolete. Everyone has access to the same data. The edge is gone.\n\nI've heard this EXACT argument before.\n\nIn 1999, they said the internet eliminated information advantages. \n\nIn 2007, they said quant models had solved investing. \n\nIn 2012, they said passive indexing made stock picking pointless.\n\nEvery single time, the obituary for active management was written at PRECISELY the wrong moment.\n\nHere's the data Wall Street doesn't want you to focus on:\n\nIn the first half of 2025, 46% of large-cap active managers BEAT the S&P 500. Only 22% of small-cap managers underperformed their benchmark. That's the best showing for small-cap stock pickers in over two decades of SPIVA data.\n\nThe moment everyone is giving up on active management is the moment active managers are performing BETTER than they have in years.\n\nMeanwhile, investors yanked $640 billion from active mutual funds in 2025. Passive funds now control 55% of total US fund assets.\n\nThis is textbook contrary indicator territory.\n\nWhen money floods mindlessly into index funds, it creates the EXACT inefficiencies that skilled stock pickers exploit. \n\nPassive funds don't analyze balance sheets. They don't question management. They don't distinguish between a company trading at 8x earnings and one trading at 80x.\n\nThey just buy whatever's in the index regardless of price or fundamentals.\n\nYou can't call that investing. \n\nAnd I'm not done here yet:\n\nThe Mag 7 stocks that drove the S&P 500 for two years are now spending $700+ billion annually on AI infrastructure with NO measurable productivity returns for most companies deploying it.\n\nAs valuations continue to compress, passive investors own every single one of those overpriced names by default.\n\nActive managers can CHOOSE not to.\n\nThat's literally a superpower.\n\nSpier said the Buffett-and-Munger approach of finding overlooked, high-quality companies at reasonable prices no longer works because \"everybody is looking everywhere.\"\n\nWith respect - no, they're NOT.\n\nEverybody is looking at the SAME 7 stocks. The same mega-cap tech names. The same AI narrative.\n\nNobody is looking at small-cap energy companies trading at 5x earnings. Nobody is looking at commodity producers with fortress balance sheets. Nobody is looking at emerging markets trading at historic discounts to US equities.\n\nTHAT'S where the edge lives.\n\nThe best opportunities in my entire career have come when the consensus said a strategy was dead.\n\nActive management isn't dying.\n\nThe lazy version of it is.\n\nAnd for those of us willing to do the work, ignore the noise, and think independently?\n\nWe HAVE entered the GOLDEN AGE of stock picking.\n\nThe herd is running in one direction.\n\nI'm going the other way.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.021968994660341634, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.021968994660341634, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.018614388212951694, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.018614388212951694, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0033546064473899406, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0033546064473899406, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007811245351625473, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.007811245351625473, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03687911113638265, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03687911113638265, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.029067865784757174, "bench_c_p1d": 0.029067865784757174, "ret_p1w": -0.014971605704774404, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.014971605704774404, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0576318972151848, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0576318972151848, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0426602915104104, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0426602915104104, "ret_p1m": 0.012693195525153023, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.012693195525153023, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.11345201357009582, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.11345201357009582, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.12614520909524884, "bench_c_p1m": 0.12614520909524884, "ret_p3m": -0.08228085662669471, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.08228085662669471, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.24719648553915163, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.24719648553915163, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.16491562891245692, "bench_c_p3m": 0.16491562891245692, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.012693195525153023, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.11345201357009582, "alpha_c_stated": -0.11345201357009582, "price_path": [-0.3046, -0.3046, -0.288, -0.2857, -0.2834, -0.2897, -0.2674, -0.2658, -0.2684, -0.2546, -0.2423, -0.2425, -0.2423, -0.2423, -0.2434, -0.2103, -0.214, -0.2172, -0.2163, -0.2022, -0.2091, -0.1875, -0.1844, -0.1907, -0.1765, -0.169, -0.1828, -0.1407, -0.1303, -0.1462, -0.126, -0.1544, -0.136, -0.136, -0.1473, -0.1264, -0.1075, -0.1109, -0.118, -0.1059, -0.113, -0.1163, -0.1041, -0.0789, -0.0823, -0.0717, -0.079, -0.0868, -0.0748, -0.0819, -0.0677, -0.0729, -0.07, -0.0692, -0.0509, -0.0441, -0.0308, -0.0251, -0.0286, -0.0011, 0.0026, 0.0148, 0.022, 0.0, -0.0078, -0.0386, -0.0163, -0.0163, -0.015, 0.0005, -0.0283, -0.0412, -0.0392, -0.0272, -0.0579, -0.0534, -0.0402, -0.0742, -0.0672, -0.0448, -0.0246, -0.0111, -0.005, 0.0106, 0.0127, 0.0314, 0.0312, 0.0234, 0.0348, 0.0415, -0.0055, -0.0181, -0.0205, 0.0018, 0.007, -0.0018, 0.0081, 0.0122, 0.0376, 0.0387, 0.034, 0.019, 0.021, 0.021, 0.0068, -0.0252, -0.0301, -0.0464, -0.0252, -0.013, -0.0101, -0.0013, -0.0436, -0.0195, -0.0405, -0.0244, -0.035, -0.0203, -0.0558, -0.071, -0.0825, -0.0908, -0.0908, -0.0788, -0.0795, -0.1015, -0.0823, -0.0847, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2039459415917744139", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-01T21:46:30+00:00", "symbol": "Gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is... 🥇", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Implied long gold as the asset central banks are buying instead of Treasuries, contrasted against stablecoin/Treasury risks.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$315 BILLION in stablecoins are now backed by US Treasuries.\n\nAnd I don't understand why no one's questioning this.\n\nGoldman's David Solomon and former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin just did a victory lap on stablecoins. Their pitch:\n\nStablecoins strengthen the dollar, create demand for Treasuries, make it easier for people outside the United States to hold dollars.\n\nSounds great. Until you look at what's actually happening underneath...\n\nThe GENIUS Act passed in July 2025. First federal stablecoin framework in US history. Stablecoin market cap has grown 50% year over year. Tether alone holds $141 billion in US Treasuries, making it one of the largest holders of American government debt on the planet.\n\nWashington's pitch is simple: every time someone in Argentina, Turkey, or Nigeria buys USDT, they're buying Treasuries by proxy. Dollar dominance strengthened. Problem solved.\n\nAnd here's the part they REALLY love...\n\nThe US ran an $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2025. CBO projects $1.9 trillion this year. National debt just crossed $39 trillion. Interest payments alone now exceed $1 trillion annually. \n\nMeanwhile, the biggest foreign buyers of Treasuries (China, Japan, Canada) have been pulling back for years. ARK Invest found that the share of Treasuries held by the largest foreign creditors dropped from 23% to just over 6% in the past 13 years. The Fed is STILL running down its balance sheet. \n\nSo who's going to buy all this debt? Washington's answer: stablecoin issuers. \n\nTreasury Secretary Bessent said it himself: \"A thriving stablecoin ecosystem will drive demand from the private sector for US Treasuries and help rein in the national debt.\"\n\nThink about what that actually means. \n\nThe government is counting on a $315 billion crypto product (run largely by a company in El Salvador that just got its first real audit last week) to help finance a $1.9 TRILLION annual deficit. \n\nStablecoin issuers currently hold less than 2% of outstanding Treasury bills. Even if the market hits $2 trillion by 2028 like Standard Chartered projects, that's still just a rounding error against $39 trillion in total debt. \n\nThis is literally a NARRATIVE designed to make the debt problem sound manageable.\n\nBut the Federal Reserve published a study showing that for every $1 that moves from bank deposits into stablecoins, bank lending contracts by roughly 50 cents. Stablecoin issuers can't make loans. The GENIUS Act prohibits it. They can ONLY hold Treasuries, reverse repos, and cash equivalents.\n\nSo when deposits leave banks and flow into stablecoins, that money stops funding mortgages, small business loans, and commercial credit. It starts funding government debt instead.\n\nThe US Treasury itself estimated stablecoins could drain up to $6.6 TRILLION from the banking system.\n\nThat's not \"strengthening the dollar.\" That's redirecting the lifeblood of the real economy into government IOUs while starving Main Street of credit.\n\nAnd then there's the run risk nobody wants to discuss.\n\nFed Governor Michael Barr said it yesterday:\n\nStablecoin issuers have every incentive to chase higher returns on their reserves. But unlike banks, they CANNOT access the Fed's discount window. If a stablecoin run happens, issuers dump Treasuries into the market all at once.\n\nStablecoin inflows push Treasury yields down 2-2.5 basis points. Outflows spike yields UP 6-8 basis points. Easy in. Ugly out.\n\nMeanwhile, Tether is the 800-pound gorilla. $185 billion in circulation. 550 million users. And until last week, it had never had a Big Four audit. It just hired KPMG after 12 years of operating with nothing but quarterly attestations.\n\nThis is the entity Wall Street is celebrating as the future of dollar dominance. A company headquartered in El Salvador that fought transparency in court twice and LOST both times.\n\nHere's what Solomon and Mnuchin are actually telling you if you listen carefully:\n\nStablecoins create captive demand for short-term US government debt. Foreign governments don't want to hold Treasuries anymore. So Washington's solution is to get 550 million retail users in emerging markets to hold them instead through a digital wrapper called a \"stablecoin.\"\n\nThe holders get zero interest. The GENIUS Act explicitly prohibits it. The issuers pocket the Treasury returns. Tether made $10 billion in profit last year. And the real economy loses credit while the government gets cheaper funding.\n\nThis is a classic Wall Street pitch to sell financial innovation as progress:\n\n\"This strengthens the system. This is good for everyone.\"\n\nThen the leverage builds, the risks concentrate, and the people who sold you on it are nowhere to be found when it unwinds.\n\nStablecoins are NOT saving the dollar. They're a $315 billion shadow money market fund with no Fed backstop, no deposit insurance, and run dynamics that could destabilize the very Treasury market they're supposed to support.\n\nIf you want to hold dollars, hold dollars. If you want to own the asset that central banks are actually buying instead of Treasuries, you already know what that is...\n\n🥇\n\n---\n\nJoin us on Substack if you want actionable value I'm not sharing on X:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.019585020354409233, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.019585020354409233, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.020484669787840915, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.020484669787840915, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0008996494334316818, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0008996494334316818, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.019794601726811134, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.019794601726811134, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.016922142501418103, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.016922142501418103, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.03671674422822924, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03671674422822924, "ret_p1m": -0.014508304262120464, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.014508304262120464, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.11334489948556226, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.11334489948556226, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09883659522344179, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09883659522344179, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.014508304262120464, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.11334489948556226, "alpha_c_stated": -0.11334489948556226, "price_path": [-0.0481, -0.0378, -0.047, -0.0417, -0.0348, -0.0167, -0.0181, -0.0081, -0.0142, -0.0189, -0.0189, 0.0182, 0.033, 0.0521, 0.0666, 0.0822, 0.1087, 0.1517, 0.1548, 0.0362, -0.0053, 0.0579, 0.0572, 0.029, 0.0607, 0.0876, 0.0768, 0.089, 0.0512, 0.0773, 0.0773, 0.0438, 0.0672, 0.0702, 0.0913, 0.1208, 0.1053, 0.1025, 0.1119, 0.1265, 0.1411, 0.0902, 0.0987, 0.0855, 0.1027, 0.1004, 0.1128, 0.1091, 0.0873, 0.0732, 0.0722, 0.0695, 0.0357, -0.007, -0.0373, -0.0591, -0.0589, -0.0306, -0.067, -0.0343, -0.0345, 0.002, 0.0196, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0041, 0.0056, 0.0119, 0.0198, 0.018, 0.0139, 0.0365, 0.0257, 0.0248, 0.0385, 0.0295, 0.0004, 0.0136, 0.0038, 0.0089, 0.0011, -0.0175, -0.0279, -0.0134, -0.0145, -0.0342, -0.0259, 0.0036, 0.0053, 0.0102, 0.0122, 0.0082, 0.0025, -0.0051, -0.0282, -0.0256, -0.0417, -0.028, -0.0289, -0.0363, -0.0363, -0.0359, -0.0487, -0.0388, -0.0286, -0.0423, -0.0407, -0.0502, -0.0422, -0.0772, -0.0748, -0.09, -0.1277, -0.1003, -0.0998, -0.0765, -0.074, -0.095, -0.0985, -0.0985, -0.1044, -0.1213, -0.1479, -0.1396, -0.1299, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2006776472980324371", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-01T17:16:09+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am lowering my price target for 2026 from $100 to $98.46. Should be an epic collapse.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish MSTR with PT $98.46 by 2026; expects an epic collapse.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I have spent the entire morning so far doing an updated analysis on $MSTR and I am lowering my price target for 2026 from $100 to $98.46. Should be an epic collapse. @MichaelMOTTCM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03315097093703678, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03315097093703678, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03132133155140615, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03132133155140615, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04810382656167134, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04810382656167134, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04144361945342667, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04144361945342667, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "ret_p1w": 0.0010816885020619171, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0010816885020619171, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01487338487392309, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.01487338487392309, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "ret_p1m": -0.1115423668288148, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1115423668288148, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.12945883949317072, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.12945883949317072, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "ret_p3m": -0.21875797964938182, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.21875797964938182, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.18049443685103506, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.18049443685103506, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [1.0896, 1.1049, 1.038, 0.9394, 1.0073, 0.9131, 0.8883, 0.8061, 0.8444, 0.8873, 0.921, 0.7868, 0.8129, 0.8394, 0.8811, 0.8111, 0.7521, 0.6198, 0.7149, 0.6841, 0.5716, 0.6226, 0.5093, 0.5394, 0.52, 0.4721, 0.4292, 0.3269, 0.271, 0.2434, 0.3159, 0.1867, 0.1271, 0.0849, 0.1392, 0.0956, 0.1176, 0.1176, 0.1274, 0.0907, 0.1538, 0.1987, 0.1836, 0.1389, 0.1688, 0.2025, 0.1749, 0.1663, 0.1227, 0.0313, 0.0658, 0.0205, 0.0069, 0.0487, 0.0456, 0.0046, 0.0099, 0.0099, 0.0105, -0.0113, -0.0099, -0.0332, -0.0332, 0.0, 0.0481, 0.0052, 0.0297, 0.0624, 0.0011, 0.0323, 0.1007, 0.1411, 0.0875, 0.1053, 0.1053, 0.0195, 0.0423, 0.0243, 0.0379, 0.0218, 0.0281, 0.0082, -0.0889, -0.0474, -0.1115, -0.1521, -0.1786, -0.3192, -0.1414, -0.1191, -0.1537, -0.1978, -0.2174, -0.1481, -0.1481, -0.1813, -0.2034, -0.1763, -0.1661, -0.2128, -0.2071, -0.1369, -0.1512, -0.176, -0.1241, -0.1558, -0.0682, -0.1104, -0.1504, -0.1159, -0.119, -0.1198, -0.1261, -0.1113, -0.0613, -0.0438, -0.1056, -0.1204, -0.1368, -0.1206, -0.133, -0.1147, -0.1542, -0.1981, -0.2273, -0.2059, -0.2188, -0.2375, -0.2375, -0.1875, -0.2128, -0.1836, -0.1801, -0.1815, -0.1578, -0.1257, -0.0867, -0.0523, 0.0596, 0.0869, 0.0433, 0.1413, 0.0974, 0.0882, 0.0766, 0.0544, 0.0066, 0.0527, 0.1273, 0.1695, 0.1892, 0.1887, 0.1443, 0.1936, 0.2468, 0.1735, 0.1328, 0.1897, 0.1289, 0.0603, 0.0475, 0.055, 0.0489, 0.0174, 0.0174, 0.0176, -0.0188, -0.0351, 0.0123, -0.047, -0.1341, -0.1948, -0.1768, -0.2336, -0.1906, -0.2554, -0.266, -0.2355, -0.2112, -0.1656, -0.2186, -0.2583, -0.284, -0.284, -0.3035, -0.3393, -0.4011, -0.4571, -0.4763, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2006084977616658732", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-30T19:28:24+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "it is totally ludicrous to own shares in $OPEN The company is guiding for losses again in 2026. What is beyond dispute is that the valuation is very expensive on present metrics.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: guiding for losses in 2026, valuation expensive on present metrics, ludicrous to own.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "On that basis then it is totally ludicrous to own shares in $OPEN \nThe company is guiding for losses again in 2026. \nWhat is beyond dispute is that the valuation is very expensive on present metrics.\nBy your own logic therefore to own $OPEN based on a narrative of profits years out in the future…\n\n@nejatian @dayetweets @m3_melody @1TradingDee", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 I don't think anyone can see 3 years into the future.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.002935074714031427, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0004979560193262289, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": -0.002210323933803826, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.005696485054359934, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007374191673935826, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009086559588413423, "ret_p1w": 0.18664377521766307, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18664377521766307, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1796569302567066, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.18713496888487047, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0004911936672074013, "ret_p1m": -0.01369861671503625, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01369861671503625, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02594006424269446, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.016891042571478443, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0031924258564421937, "ret_p3m": -0.17808218059586356, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17808218059586356, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1035734291768895, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1672500425829061, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01083213801295746, "ret_p6m": -0.2671232708937953, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2671232708937953, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3400868031499439, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3771875656046678, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11006429471087253, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.01369861671503625, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02594006424269446, "alpha_c_stated": 0.016891042571478443, "price_path": [0.3716, 0.3887, 0.589, 0.5908, 0.4538, 0.3938, 0.2962, 0.2449, 0.3082, 0.2637, 0.2175, 0.226, 0.262, 0.1918, 0.1678, 0.2038, 0.3647, 0.3973, 0.3647, 0.3099, 0.2568, 0.3305, 0.2997, 0.1849, 0.238, 0.1233, 0.1233, 0.3647, 0.4521, 0.6045, 0.4658, 0.3904, 0.3425, 0.2877, 0.1455, 0.0548, 0.1558, 0.3168, 0.3253, 0.3322, 0.3322, 0.3185, 0.2226, 0.1969, 0.1884, 0.2979, 0.2243, 0.2072, 0.2688, 0.1986, 0.2072, 0.1233, 0.1079, 0.1524, 0.0479, 0.0753, 0.089, 0.0993, 0.0736, 0.0753, 0.0753, 0.0291, -0.0017, 0.0, -0.0017, -0.0017, 0.0394, 0.0822, 0.1866, 0.0479, 0.101, 0.2483, 0.2021, 0.1592, 0.137, 0.0788, 0.1421, 0.1421, 0.0942, 0.1096, 0.0993, 0.0291, 0.0051, -0.0051, -0.0137, -0.0445, -0.1182, -0.1747, -0.1216, -0.1438, -0.1952, -0.1644, -0.1541, -0.1969, -0.1849, -0.25, -0.2389, -0.2389, -0.2586, -0.2072, -0.2038, -0.1438, -0.1815, -0.125, -0.1473, -0.0736, -0.0719, -0.1353, -0.149, -0.1644, -0.113, -0.1438, -0.1301, -0.1421, -0.0976, -0.1712, -0.1524, -0.113, -0.0479, -0.0959, -0.1199, -0.1592, -0.1079, -0.113, -0.1267, -0.161, -0.1781, -0.2414, -0.1986, -0.2175, -0.1884, -0.1884, -0.2106, -0.2209, -0.2055, -0.262, -0.2603, -0.2534, -0.2277, -0.1747, -0.0976, -0.0942, -0.0839, -0.0668, -0.0702, -0.1062, -0.0565, -0.0771, -0.0616, -0.0445, -0.0788, -0.0685, -0.1216, -0.1045, -0.0651, -0.089, -0.1421, -0.1695, -0.1935, -0.2158, -0.2346, -0.25, -0.2671, -0.2637, -0.2466, -0.2175, -0.2243, -0.2243, -0.2329, -0.1866, -0.1318, -0.137, -0.0908, -0.0736, -0.1661, -0.1524, -0.2432, -0.262, -0.2568, -0.2329, -0.2346, -0.2397, -0.2106, -0.1866, -0.238, -0.2346, -0.2346, -0.2671, -0.2808, -0.2671]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029547307067204065", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-05T13:19:19+00:00", "symbol": "PLTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "In what universe is 50 times revenues a bargain? ... I don't think this is a dip. I think it's a REGIME CHANGE.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Regime change thesis: short high-multiple tech (PLTR, NOW, Mag7) and Bitcoin; rotate long into energy, commodities, and small/mid-cap value on valuation and macro grounds.", "resolved_tickers": ["PLTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is insane to me.\n\nPalantir just fell 30% and people are calling it cheap.\n\nIt's trading at 50 times REVENUES.\n\nNot earnings. Revenues.\n\nLet me tell you something:\n\nBefore the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco, Microsoft, and Amazon peaked at price-to-sales ratios between 30 and 50. Palantir blew past 100x at the top and people are calling a pullback to 50x a buying opportunity.\n\nIn what universe is 50 times revenues a bargain?\n\nThis one, apparently. Because an entire generation of investors has been conditioned to confuse price with value.\n\nThey're TWO DIFFERENT things.\n\nPrice is what you see on the screen. It tells you nothing about what you're actually buying. \n\nA stock falling 30% doesn't make it cheap. It might still be wildly expensive. \n\nAnd a stock going up doesn't make it a good investment. It might just mean someone is willing to pay more for trading sardines.\n\nYou know the story. \n\nBig bidding war at the Tokyo fish market. Sardines keep changing hands at higher and higher prices. \n\nLast guy opens the can, tastes one, spits it out. Wants his money back.\n\nSeller looks at him like he's crazy.\n\n\"Those sardines aren't for eating. They're for trading.\"\n\nThat's what happened with a lot of this merchandise the last few years. \n\nPalantir. ServiceNow, still trading at 60+ times earnings AFTER the selloff. The whole Mag 7 complex.\n\nIt all worked when liquidity was abundant and everyone was running the same playbook:\n\nBuy the narrative. Ignore valuation. Let momentum do the work.\n\nIt worked the last 5 times. Then one day it doesn't.\n\nI think that day is here. And I don't think this is a dip. I think it's a REGIME CHANGE.\n\nTech outperformed the market for over a decade. The US outperformed the rest of the world. \n\nLarge caps crushed everything. Much of it was justified. Relative price follows relative earnings. Credit where it's due.\n\nBut we went through a 40 year cycle of falling interest rates. And that's OVER. \n\nThe things most sensitive to liquidity, like high-multiple tech and Bitcoin, are struggling. The things sensitive to inflation and real growth are working.\n\nEnergy over tech. Commodities over crypto. Small cap value over mega cap growth.\n\nThey're all planets orbiting around the same sun.\n\nThe buy-the-dip crowd thinks this is just another pullback before regular scheduled programming resumes. \n\nPalantir goes back to 125 times revenues. ServiceNow back to 20 times sales. The Mag 7 rips to new highs.\n\nMaybe. But ask yourself this:\n\nIf the tide has actually turned, and you're still holding these names at these valuations, what's your margin of safety? Where's the floor?\n\nThere isn't one. Because when you pay 50 times revenues for a company, you're not investing. You're speculating that someone will pay 60x after you. \n\nMeanwhile the Russell isn't the answer either...\n\n40% of those companies don't make money. Small cap growth is still absurdly expensive. \n\nThe only segment that looks genuinely interesting is small cap value, and even there you have to do the work.\n\nMy playbook hasn't changed:\n\nOwn things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. \n\nEnergy. Commodities. Select small and mid-caps where the PE starts with a 1, not a 7.\n\nThe last shall be first. The first shall be last.\n\nPOSITION ACCORDINGLY\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/BdjnmoKmqd", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0034060671952422794, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0034060671952422794, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0022008657069987336, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0022008657069987336, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005606932902241013, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005606932902241013, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.029409874546506565, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.029409874546506565, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04251700445736861, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04251700445736861, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.013107129910862048, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013107129910862048, "ret_p1w": 0.005436574579218867, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.005436574579218867, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.027819906073805023, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.027819906073805023, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.022383331494586156, "bench_c_p1w": -0.022383331494586156, "ret_p1m": -0.027575761482746097, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.027575761482746097, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.007193851006925045, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.007193851006925045, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.03476961248967114, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03476961248967114, "ret_p3m": -0.003275037702212491, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.003275037702212491, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12118679134912347, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.12118679134912347, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11791175364691098, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11791175364691098, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.027575761482746097, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.007193851006925045, "alpha_c_stated": -0.007193851006925045, "price_path": [0.1888, 0.1911, 0.2308, 0.2284, 0.2024, 0.2003, 0.2298, 0.1613, 0.2163, 0.2667, 0.2706, 0.2716, 0.2718, 0.2718, 0.2361, 0.2064, 0.1845, 0.1643, 0.1643, 0.0995, 0.14, 0.1771, 0.19, 0.1584, 0.1626, 0.1751, 0.1722, 0.1685, 0.1598, 0.1198, 0.1198, 0.1039, 0.0829, 0.0867, 0.1109, 0.0969, 0.0853, 0.0307, -0.0053, -0.0398, -0.0322, 0.0341, -0.086, -0.1484, -0.1098, -0.0639, -0.0862, -0.1113, -0.1542, -0.1393, -0.1393, -0.1287, -0.1133, -0.1165, -0.1142, -0.1446, -0.1561, -0.121, -0.1096, -0.1014, -0.0491, -0.0357, 0.0034, 0.0, 0.0294, 0.0246, -0.01, -0.007, 0.0054, -0.0113, 0.0003, 0.0158, 0.0007, 0.0197, -0.013, 0.0535, 0.0138, 0.015, -0.0335, -0.0629, -0.099, -0.0419, -0.0405, -0.0276, -0.0276, -0.031, -0.017, -0.078, -0.1453, -0.1612, -0.133, -0.1112, -0.0689, -0.0649, -0.0411, -0.0444, -0.0439, -0.0003, -0.0727, -0.0627, -0.0627, -0.0753, -0.0963, -0.0888, -0.0563, -0.0435, -0.1098, -0.1237, -0.1023, -0.0974, -0.1034, -0.1092, -0.1482, -0.1241, -0.1224, -0.1148, -0.114, -0.1017, -0.0999, -0.1034, -0.1034, -0.1053, -0.132, -0.0611, 0.0253, 0.0523, -0.0033, -0.0686, -0.0719, -0.1123, -0.1061, -0.1349, -0.1471, -0.1414, -0.1617, -0.1176, -0.1272, -0.1444, -0.1585, -0.1585, -0.2173, -0.2356, -0.2566, -0.2974, -0.2603, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029547307067204065", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-05T13:19:19+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy over tech. Commodities over crypto. Small cap value over mega cap growth. Own things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. Energy.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Regime change thesis: short high-multiple tech (PLTR, NOW, Mag7) and Bitcoin; rotate long into energy, commodities, and small/mid-cap value on valuation and macro grounds.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE is the primary US energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is insane to me.\n\nPalantir just fell 30% and people are calling it cheap.\n\nIt's trading at 50 times REVENUES.\n\nNot earnings. Revenues.\n\nLet me tell you something:\n\nBefore the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco, Microsoft, and Amazon peaked at price-to-sales ratios between 30 and 50. Palantir blew past 100x at the top and people are calling a pullback to 50x a buying opportunity.\n\nIn what universe is 50 times revenues a bargain?\n\nThis one, apparently. Because an entire generation of investors has been conditioned to confuse price with value.\n\nThey're TWO DIFFERENT things.\n\nPrice is what you see on the screen. It tells you nothing about what you're actually buying. \n\nA stock falling 30% doesn't make it cheap. It might still be wildly expensive. \n\nAnd a stock going up doesn't make it a good investment. It might just mean someone is willing to pay more for trading sardines.\n\nYou know the story. \n\nBig bidding war at the Tokyo fish market. Sardines keep changing hands at higher and higher prices. \n\nLast guy opens the can, tastes one, spits it out. Wants his money back.\n\nSeller looks at him like he's crazy.\n\n\"Those sardines aren't for eating. They're for trading.\"\n\nThat's what happened with a lot of this merchandise the last few years. \n\nPalantir. ServiceNow, still trading at 60+ times earnings AFTER the selloff. The whole Mag 7 complex.\n\nIt all worked when liquidity was abundant and everyone was running the same playbook:\n\nBuy the narrative. Ignore valuation. Let momentum do the work.\n\nIt worked the last 5 times. Then one day it doesn't.\n\nI think that day is here. And I don't think this is a dip. I think it's a REGIME CHANGE.\n\nTech outperformed the market for over a decade. The US outperformed the rest of the world. \n\nLarge caps crushed everything. Much of it was justified. Relative price follows relative earnings. Credit where it's due.\n\nBut we went through a 40 year cycle of falling interest rates. And that's OVER. \n\nThe things most sensitive to liquidity, like high-multiple tech and Bitcoin, are struggling. The things sensitive to inflation and real growth are working.\n\nEnergy over tech. Commodities over crypto. Small cap value over mega cap growth.\n\nThey're all planets orbiting around the same sun.\n\nThe buy-the-dip crowd thinks this is just another pullback before regular scheduled programming resumes. \n\nPalantir goes back to 125 times revenues. ServiceNow back to 20 times sales. The Mag 7 rips to new highs.\n\nMaybe. But ask yourself this:\n\nIf the tide has actually turned, and you're still holding these names at these valuations, what's your margin of safety? Where's the floor?\n\nThere isn't one. Because when you pay 50 times revenues for a company, you're not investing. You're speculating that someone will pay 60x after you. \n\nMeanwhile the Russell isn't the answer either...\n\n40% of those companies don't make money. Small cap growth is still absurdly expensive. \n\nThe only segment that looks genuinely interesting is small cap value, and even there you have to do the work.\n\nMy playbook hasn't changed:\n\nOwn things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. \n\nEnergy. Commodities. Select small and mid-caps where the PE starts with a 1, not a 7.\n\nThe last shall be first. The first shall be last.\n\nPOSITION ACCORDINGLY\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/BdjnmoKmqd", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.005134595870028735, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.005134595870028735, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010741528772269748, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.010741528772269748, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005606932902241013, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005606932902241013, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.001593485825562846, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.001593485825562846, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.014700615736424893, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.014700615736424893, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.013107129910862048, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013107129910862048, "ret_p1w": 0.018236483923404156, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.018236483923404156, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04061981541799031, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04061981541799031, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.022383331494586156, "bench_c_p1w": -0.022383331494586156, "ret_p1m": 0.05589806127717156, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.05589806127717156, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0906676737668427, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0906676737668427, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.03476961248967114, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03476961248967114, "ret_p3m": 0.03290885113177766, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03290885113177766, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.08500290251513332, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08500290251513332, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11791175364691098, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11791175364691098, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.05589806127717156, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0906676737668427, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0906676737668427, "price_path": [-0.2026, -0.1977, -0.1893, -0.1931, -0.201, -0.2067, -0.2309, -0.2139, -0.2253, -0.2253, -0.2172, -0.2121, -0.2144, -0.2144, -0.2174, -0.21, -0.204, -0.2084, -0.2084, -0.1917, -0.1698, -0.1919, -0.201, -0.1758, -0.1737, -0.1795, -0.1678, -0.1491, -0.157, -0.1556, -0.1556, -0.1572, -0.1369, -0.134, -0.1291, -0.1285, -0.1206, -0.1138, -0.1057, -0.0961, -0.1138, -0.0852, -0.0646, -0.0756, -0.0572, -0.0503, -0.0513, -0.0266, -0.0443, -0.0377, -0.0377, -0.0483, -0.0301, -0.023, -0.0283, -0.0235, -0.0244, -0.0285, -0.0253, -0.0099, 0.0099, 0.0007, -0.0051, 0.0, 0.0016, -0.0028, -0.0156, 0.0089, 0.0182, 0.0216, 0.0251, 0.0359, 0.0345, 0.051, 0.0501, 0.0627, 0.0842, 0.0794, 0.0964, 0.1149, 0.1042, 0.0917, 0.0509, 0.0559, 0.0559, 0.0636, 0.0721, 0.0345, 0.0217, 0.0147, 0.0178, -0.0029, -0.0063, 0.0083, -0.0195, -0.0186, -0.0043, 0.0076, 0.0154, 0.0135, 0.0117, 0.0285, 0.052, 0.063, 0.0488, 0.0584, 0.0595, 0.0158, -0.0029, -0.0074, 0.0188, 0.026, 0.027, 0.0349, 0.0593, 0.0796, 0.0923, 0.0657, 0.0538, 0.0602, 0.0602, 0.0309, 0.0156, 0.0149, 0.0031, 0.0211, 0.0329, 0.0463, 0.047, 0.0277, 0.0395, 0.0228, 0.0381, 0.0179, 0.0256, -0.01, -0.0134, -0.0257, -0.0418, -0.0418, -0.0296, -0.0225, -0.0384, -0.0291, -0.0336, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029547307067204065", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-03-05T13:19:19+00:00", "symbol": "commodities", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Commodities over crypto. Own things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. Energy. Commodities.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Regime change thesis: short high-multiple tech (PLTR, NOW, Mag7) and Bitcoin; rotate long into energy, commodities, and small/mid-cap value on valuation and macro grounds.", "resolved_tickers": ["DJP"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Broad commodities basket; DJP tracks Bloomberg Commodity", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is insane to me.\n\nPalantir just fell 30% and people are calling it cheap.\n\nIt's trading at 50 times REVENUES.\n\nNot earnings. Revenues.\n\nLet me tell you something:\n\nBefore the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco, Microsoft, and Amazon peaked at price-to-sales ratios between 30 and 50. Palantir blew past 100x at the top and people are calling a pullback to 50x a buying opportunity.\n\nIn what universe is 50 times revenues a bargain?\n\nThis one, apparently. Because an entire generation of investors has been conditioned to confuse price with value.\n\nThey're TWO DIFFERENT things.\n\nPrice is what you see on the screen. It tells you nothing about what you're actually buying. \n\nA stock falling 30% doesn't make it cheap. It might still be wildly expensive. \n\nAnd a stock going up doesn't make it a good investment. It might just mean someone is willing to pay more for trading sardines.\n\nYou know the story. \n\nBig bidding war at the Tokyo fish market. Sardines keep changing hands at higher and higher prices. \n\nLast guy opens the can, tastes one, spits it out. Wants his money back.\n\nSeller looks at him like he's crazy.\n\n\"Those sardines aren't for eating. They're for trading.\"\n\nThat's what happened with a lot of this merchandise the last few years. \n\nPalantir. ServiceNow, still trading at 60+ times earnings AFTER the selloff. The whole Mag 7 complex.\n\nIt all worked when liquidity was abundant and everyone was running the same playbook:\n\nBuy the narrative. Ignore valuation. Let momentum do the work.\n\nIt worked the last 5 times. Then one day it doesn't.\n\nI think that day is here. And I don't think this is a dip. I think it's a REGIME CHANGE.\n\nTech outperformed the market for over a decade. The US outperformed the rest of the world. \n\nLarge caps crushed everything. Much of it was justified. Relative price follows relative earnings. Credit where it's due.\n\nBut we went through a 40 year cycle of falling interest rates. And that's OVER. \n\nThe things most sensitive to liquidity, like high-multiple tech and Bitcoin, are struggling. The things sensitive to inflation and real growth are working.\n\nEnergy over tech. Commodities over crypto. Small cap value over mega cap growth.\n\nThey're all planets orbiting around the same sun.\n\nThe buy-the-dip crowd thinks this is just another pullback before regular scheduled programming resumes. \n\nPalantir goes back to 125 times revenues. ServiceNow back to 20 times sales. The Mag 7 rips to new highs.\n\nMaybe. But ask yourself this:\n\nIf the tide has actually turned, and you're still holding these names at these valuations, what's your margin of safety? Where's the floor?\n\nThere isn't one. Because when you pay 50 times revenues for a company, you're not investing. You're speculating that someone will pay 60x after you. \n\nMeanwhile the Russell isn't the answer either...\n\n40% of those companies don't make money. Small cap growth is still absurdly expensive. \n\nThe only segment that looks genuinely interesting is small cap value, and even there you have to do the work.\n\nMy playbook hasn't changed:\n\nOwn things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. \n\nEnergy. Commodities. Select small and mid-caps where the PE starts with a 1, not a 7.\n\nThe last shall be first. The first shall be last.\n\nPOSITION ACCORDINGLY\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/BdjnmoKmqd", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.012609803540083786, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.012609803540083786, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0182167364423248, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0182167364423248, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005606932902241013, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005606932902241013, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04458454287411362, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04458454287411362, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05769167278497567, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05769167278497567, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.013107129910862048, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013107129910862048, "ret_p1w": 0.07948657490262478, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07948657490262478, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.10186990639721094, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10186990639721094, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.022383331494586156, "bench_c_p1w": -0.022383331494586156, "ret_p1m": 0.10110339324237683, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10110339324237683, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.13587300573204797, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.13587300573204797, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.03476961248967114, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03476961248967114, "ret_p3m": 0.10605717407466098, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.10605717407466098, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.011854579572250001, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.011854579572250001, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11791175364691098, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11791175364691098, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10110339324237683, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.13587300573204797, "alpha_c_stated": 0.13587300573204797, "price_path": [-0.15, -0.1556, -0.1502, -0.1479, -0.1592, -0.1624, -0.1711, -0.1599, -0.1678, -0.1621, -0.1511, -0.1374, -0.1376, -0.1376, -0.125, -0.1452, -0.1374, -0.1531, -0.1531, -0.1518, -0.134, -0.1252, -0.1324, -0.1324, -0.1302, -0.1164, -0.1106, -0.1074, -0.1153, -0.118, -0.118, -0.0991, -0.0824, -0.0813, -0.0626, -0.052, -0.0383, -0.0279, -0.0135, -0.0439, -0.0984, -0.0725, -0.068, -0.0838, -0.0768, -0.0714, -0.0718, -0.066, -0.0844, -0.0833, -0.0833, -0.0975, -0.0759, -0.0669, -0.0567, -0.0536, -0.0547, -0.0536, -0.0516, -0.0387, -0.0171, -0.0173, -0.0126, 0.0, 0.0446, 0.0275, 0.0381, 0.0543, 0.0795, 0.0745, 0.0549, 0.0664, 0.0822, 0.0653, 0.066, 0.0248, 0.0401, 0.0405, 0.0473, 0.0748, 0.0831, 0.084, 0.0723, 0.1011, 0.1011, 0.1047, 0.1007, 0.054, 0.0592, 0.0522, 0.0642, 0.0653, 0.0644, 0.0725, 0.0513, 0.0617, 0.0761, 0.0853, 0.0973, 0.0937, 0.1018, 0.111, 0.1313, 0.1356, 0.1295, 0.1441, 0.138, 0.1101, 0.1099, 0.111, 0.1419, 0.1628, 0.1551, 0.1439, 0.1362, 0.1477, 0.1549, 0.1317, 0.1223, 0.1146, 0.1146, 0.1016, 0.0842, 0.0977, 0.0896, 0.1018, 0.1061, 0.1063, 0.093, 0.0617, 0.0642, 0.0504, 0.0502, 0.0417, 0.0356, 0.029, 0.0245, 0.0176, 0.0135, 0.0135, 0.007, -0.0077, -0.0281, -0.0097, -0.0171, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029547307067204065", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-03-05T13:19:19+00:00", "symbol": "small cap value", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The only segment that looks genuinely interesting is small cap value. Own things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. Select small and mid-caps where the PE starts with a 1, not a 7.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Regime change thesis: short high-multiple tech (PLTR, NOW, Mag7) and Bitcoin; rotate long into energy, commodities, and small/mid-cap value on valuation and macro grounds.", "resolved_tickers": ["IWN"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "IWN tracks Russell 2000 Value (small cap value)", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is insane to me.\n\nPalantir just fell 30% and people are calling it cheap.\n\nIt's trading at 50 times REVENUES.\n\nNot earnings. Revenues.\n\nLet me tell you something:\n\nBefore the dot-com bubble burst, Cisco, Microsoft, and Amazon peaked at price-to-sales ratios between 30 and 50. Palantir blew past 100x at the top and people are calling a pullback to 50x a buying opportunity.\n\nIn what universe is 50 times revenues a bargain?\n\nThis one, apparently. Because an entire generation of investors has been conditioned to confuse price with value.\n\nThey're TWO DIFFERENT things.\n\nPrice is what you see on the screen. It tells you nothing about what you're actually buying. \n\nA stock falling 30% doesn't make it cheap. It might still be wildly expensive. \n\nAnd a stock going up doesn't make it a good investment. It might just mean someone is willing to pay more for trading sardines.\n\nYou know the story. \n\nBig bidding war at the Tokyo fish market. Sardines keep changing hands at higher and higher prices. \n\nLast guy opens the can, tastes one, spits it out. Wants his money back.\n\nSeller looks at him like he's crazy.\n\n\"Those sardines aren't for eating. They're for trading.\"\n\nThat's what happened with a lot of this merchandise the last few years. \n\nPalantir. ServiceNow, still trading at 60+ times earnings AFTER the selloff. The whole Mag 7 complex.\n\nIt all worked when liquidity was abundant and everyone was running the same playbook:\n\nBuy the narrative. Ignore valuation. Let momentum do the work.\n\nIt worked the last 5 times. Then one day it doesn't.\n\nI think that day is here. And I don't think this is a dip. I think it's a REGIME CHANGE.\n\nTech outperformed the market for over a decade. The US outperformed the rest of the world. \n\nLarge caps crushed everything. Much of it was justified. Relative price follows relative earnings. Credit where it's due.\n\nBut we went through a 40 year cycle of falling interest rates. And that's OVER. \n\nThe things most sensitive to liquidity, like high-multiple tech and Bitcoin, are struggling. The things sensitive to inflation and real growth are working.\n\nEnergy over tech. Commodities over crypto. Small cap value over mega cap growth.\n\nThey're all planets orbiting around the same sun.\n\nThe buy-the-dip crowd thinks this is just another pullback before regular scheduled programming resumes. \n\nPalantir goes back to 125 times revenues. ServiceNow back to 20 times sales. The Mag 7 rips to new highs.\n\nMaybe. But ask yourself this:\n\nIf the tide has actually turned, and you're still holding these names at these valuations, what's your margin of safety? Where's the floor?\n\nThere isn't one. Because when you pay 50 times revenues for a company, you're not investing. You're speculating that someone will pay 60x after you. \n\nMeanwhile the Russell isn't the answer either...\n\n40% of those companies don't make money. Small cap growth is still absurdly expensive. \n\nThe only segment that looks genuinely interesting is small cap value, and even there you have to do the work.\n\nMy playbook hasn't changed:\n\nOwn things where valuations make sense, earnings are growing, and the macro tailwind is at your back. \n\nEnergy. Commodities. Select small and mid-caps where the PE starts with a 1, not a 7.\n\nThe last shall be first. The first shall be last.\n\nPOSITION ACCORDINGLY\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/BdjnmoKmqd", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01945138489229814, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01945138489229814, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.013844451990057127, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.013844451990057127, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005606932902241013, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005606932902241013, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.020171897282653672, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.020171897282653672, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.007064767371791625, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007064767371791625, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.013107129910862048, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013107129910862048, "ret_p1w": -0.03663874253124266, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03663874253124266, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.014255411036656507, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.014255411036656507, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.022383331494586156, "bench_c_p1w": -0.022383331494586156, "ret_p1m": -0.008281783403291887, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.008281783403291887, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.026487829086379255, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.026487829086379255, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.03476961248967114, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03476961248967114, "ret_p3m": 0.10941989744195979, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.10941989744195979, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.008491856204951187, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.008491856204951187, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11791175364691098, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11791175364691098, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.008281783403291887, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.026487829086379255, "alpha_c_stated": 0.026487829086379255, "price_path": [-0.061, -0.058, -0.0397, -0.0307, -0.041, -0.0449, -0.051, -0.055, -0.051, -0.0508, -0.0443, -0.05, -0.0473, -0.0473, -0.0505, -0.0548, -0.0601, -0.0675, -0.0675, -0.059, -0.047, -0.0328, -0.0361, -0.0224, -0.0165, -0.014, -0.0127, -0.0032, 0.0059, 0.0054, 0.0054, -0.0078, 0.0169, 0.024, 0.0066, 0.003, 0.0068, 0.0012, 0.0079, -0.0023, 0.008, 0.0166, 0.018, 0.0025, 0.0308, 0.0341, 0.0334, 0.032, 0.0146, 0.029, 0.029, 0.0274, 0.0279, 0.0305, 0.0339, 0.0152, 0.0233, 0.0279, 0.0334, 0.0166, 0.0238, 0.0089, 0.0195, 0.0, -0.0202, -0.0154, -0.0168, -0.0198, -0.0366, -0.0395, -0.0319, -0.0272, -0.0419, -0.0366, -0.0533, -0.0333, -0.0248, -0.0134, -0.0231, -0.0377, -0.0463, -0.0217, -0.0157, -0.0083, -0.0083, -0.0047, -0.0017, 0.0239, 0.0305, 0.0286, 0.0364, 0.0428, 0.042, 0.0437, 0.0653, 0.0712, 0.0597, 0.0642, 0.0658, 0.0679, 0.0723, 0.0674, 0.0534, 0.072, 0.0745, 0.0659, 0.0816, 0.0979, 0.0841, 0.092, 0.0898, 0.0818, 0.0797, 0.0835, 0.0628, 0.0634, 0.0538, 0.0766, 0.0825, 0.0904, 0.0904, 0.1078, 0.1085, 0.1113, 0.1036, 0.0978, 0.1094, 0.0949, 0.1096, 0.0807, 0.0901, 0.0948, 0.0884, 0.1136, 0.1266, 0.1253, 0.1196, 0.1066, 0.1231, 0.1231, 0.1289, 0.1266, 0.132, 0.1399, 0.1467, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2020893303428804670", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-09T16:11:24+00:00", "symbol": "OWL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Probably nothing;) $OWL", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish on OWL with a teasing 'probably nothing' hint; decisive implied long.", "resolved_tickers": ["OWL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Probably nothing;) $OWL https://t.co/Q5Cg4PBrK5\n\n---\n\nRun, don’t walk from this capital incinerator. https://t.co/Rv1M8UDwwN\n\n---\n\n$OWL https://t.co/gkOIhZE0HA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.00949363798828684, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.00949363798828684, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.004695048757604958, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.015426173321454684, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005932535333167843, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02610762260075883, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02610762260075883, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.028744680371458275, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03333785991287219, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007230237312113363, "ret_p1w": -0.026898719722126097, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.026898719722126097, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.009318216689916392, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.015555865880301334, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "bench_c_p1w": -0.04245458560242743, "ret_p1m": -0.23675233249611183, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.23675233249611183, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.21258634711063218, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1648206090826848, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "bench_c_p1m": -0.07193172341342702, "ret_p3m": -0.16494575806556788, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.16494575806556788, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2220507383238871, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12554988855566507, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "bench_c_p3m": -0.039395869509902814, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.23675233249611183, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.21258634711063218, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1648206090826848, "price_path": [0.193, 0.1725, 0.1566, 0.0894, 0.1005, 0.091, 0.087, 0.11, 0.1203, 0.1432, 0.1669, 0.1669, 0.1867, 0.1891, 0.1796, 0.2389, 0.2706, 0.2848, 0.2674, 0.3188, 0.3101, 0.2745, 0.2381, 0.2334, 0.2524, 0.2176, 0.2247, 0.2176, 0.2563, 0.2405, 0.2231, 0.2231, 0.1891, 0.2065, 0.1859, 0.182, 0.182, 0.2112, 0.2555, 0.269, 0.2326, 0.2484, 0.2445, 0.2484, 0.2104, 0.2342, 0.2492, 0.2603, 0.2603, 0.2144, 0.2468, 0.2413, 0.1978, 0.1559, 0.1495, 0.1472, 0.1068, 0.0791, 0.0617, -0.0419, -0.0459, -0.0799, -0.0095, 0.0, 0.0261, -0.0024, -0.0119, -0.0269, -0.0269, -0.0443, -0.0261, -0.0839, -0.1278, -0.1577, -0.1343, -0.0843, -0.0948, -0.1488, -0.1383, -0.1714, -0.1658, -0.1593, -0.2021, -0.2085, -0.2368, -0.2723, -0.3053, -0.294, -0.2932, -0.2618, -0.265, -0.2642, -0.2642, -0.2666, -0.2771, -0.2714, -0.2723, -0.2868, -0.2682, -0.2634, -0.2973, -0.3086, -0.3086, -0.3182, -0.3166, -0.3287, -0.332, -0.336, -0.3182, -0.2601, -0.1996, -0.2214, -0.2053, -0.2021, -0.2037, -0.1996, -0.24, -0.2593, -0.2803, -0.2852, -0.2835, -0.2134, -0.1948, -0.1835, -0.1327, -0.1496, -0.1649, -0.148, -0.1867, -0.1932, -0.1932, -0.1899, -0.2188, -0.2163, -0.2213, -0.1965, -0.1577, -0.1692, -0.1692, -0.1659, -0.1635, -0.18, -0.1511, -0.1354, -0.1684, -0.1998, -0.1585, -0.1907, -0.2221, -0.208, -0.218, -0.1973, -0.2006, -0.2064, -0.1874, -0.2163, -0.213, -0.213, -0.2378, -0.2642, -0.3005, -0.2997, -0.2923, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2007561053325181083", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-03T21:13:48+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect lower revenues in 2026 as auto deliveries fall for the third consecutive year.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Expects TSLA 2026 revenues below consensus/parent's $110B estimate on a third consecutive year of declining auto deliveries.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Gfilche @Tesla I expect lower revenues in 2026 as auto deliveries fall for the third consecutive year.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "projecting $TSLA will grow revenue by 17% next year 📊\n\nfrom ~$94B in '25 to $110B in '26 📈\n\nwhat are your estimates? ⚡️ @Tesla https://t.co/m2GrOrjwhR", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Gfilche", "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_stated": 0.10246011414178635, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2023387864461910111", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-16T13:23:54+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold and precious metals remain a core holding. China's buying puts a structural floor under prices, and they're NOT slowing down.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long gold on structural Chinese buying floor; bearish Mag 7 on stretched valuations vs cheap Chinese AI; bearish NVDA on China market share collapse to 8%.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "We're watching the biggest shift in global economic power unfold in real time.\n\nWhile America debates tariffs, subpoenas its own Fed Chair, and spends $380 billion on AI infrastructure with no measurable returns...\n\nChina just executed the most AGGRESSIVE industrial strategy since the Marshall Plan.\n\nThis week alone, 5 Chinese AI companies - Zhipu, ByteDance, Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek - released or announced major model upgrades simultaneously during Spring Festival.\n\nA RAND report published last month confirmed Chinese AI models now run at one-sixth to one-fourth the cost of comparable American systems.\n\nOne-sixth the cost.\n\nSurveys show the vast majority of US companies investing in AI report \"no change\" in productivity, decision-making, or customer satisfaction.\n\nAmerica is burning cash. China is building products.\n\nBut AI is just one front.\n\nThe \"Four Dragons\" - Moore Threads, MetaX, Biren, Enflame - all went public or filed IPOs in the last two months. \n\nHuawei is doubling output of its flagship Ascend chip to 600,000 units this year and outlined a 3 year roadmap to overtake Nvidia.\n\nBernstein estimates Nvidia's China market share will collapse from 40% to 8% under current export restrictions. Huawei's could rise to 50%.\n\nBeijing is mobilizing $70 billion in chip incentives and mandating state telecoms replace AMD and Intel by 2027.\n\nThey're not competing with our tech stack. They're REPLACING IT.\n\nNow look at energy:\n\nChina invested $1 TRILLION in clean energy in 2025. 4x what they spent on fossil fuels. Clean energy drove over a third of GDP growth last year.\n\nThey produce a full terawatt of solar panel capacity annually. Over 70% of global EV production is Chinese. Nearly half of all new cars sold in China are electric.\n\nThey can power their AI data centers with cheap renewable energy they built themselves.\n\nMeanwhile, America is debating whether to keep wind subsidies.\n\nThe part that should concern every dollar-denominated investor:\n\nChina's central bank has bought gold for 15 consecutive months. \n\nJanuary reserves hit $369.6 billion, up $51 billion in a single month.\n\nThe World Gold Council suggests actual holdings could be DOUBLE the reported figures.\n\nThe Shanghai Gold Exchange is expanding renminbi-priced contracts overseas. Yuan-based trade is growing with Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Indonesia.\n\nThey're not just accumulating gold. They're building the infrastructure to challenge how global commodities get priced.\n\nAnd China's trade machine? Record $3.77 trillion in exports last year. \n\n$1.19 trillion surplus - the largest any country has EVER recorded.\n\nBut they've completely redirected it. \n\nExports to America fell 28.6%. Exports to Africa surged 27.5%. ASEAN up 8.2%.\n\nGoldman raised its 2026 China growth forecast to 4.8%.\n\nAdd it up:\n\n- AI at a fraction of the cost\n- A parallel chip ecosystem\n- $1 trillion per year in clean energy\n- 15 months of gold buying\n- A record trade surplus pivoted toward the Global South\n\nTheir 15th Five-Year Plan covers quantum computing, 6G, hydrogen energy, and biomedicine. \n\nThis is a country that installed 277 gigawatts of solar in a single year while we argued about tax credits.\n\nMy positioning:\n\nGold and precious metals remain a core holding. China's buying puts a structural floor under prices, and they're NOT slowing down.\n\nMag 7 valuations look increasingly stretched when a competitor builds comparable AI for pennies on the dollar.\n\nEnergy stocks stay attractive - the transition is measured in decades, not quarters.\n\nChina is building the future.\n\nAmerica is unfortunately just talking about it.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM access is LIVE\n\nIncluding 7 NEW features NOT available on the basic Substack:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the annual plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nThis was in the works for a long time, and it's a steal for the value you get\n\nSign up here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0321730979862076, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0321730979862076, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03378398187146503, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03378398187146503, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.022489929267582198, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.022489929267582198, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.017452221717005445, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.017452221717005445, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "ret_p1w": 0.05892452571449747, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05892452571449747, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05233452167717867, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05233452167717867, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "ret_p1m": -0.00771981677469924, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.00771981677469924, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.023648703083867906, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.023648703083867906, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "ret_p3m": -0.06896475417281234, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.06896475417281234, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.15439892947834977, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.15439892947834977, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1637, -0.1649, -0.1517, -0.152, -0.1452, -0.1452, -0.1346, -0.1304, -0.136, -0.1368, -0.1363, -0.1378, -0.1401, -0.1357, -0.132, -0.1226, -0.1177, -0.1169, -0.1167, -0.1091, -0.1107, -0.1097, -0.0892, -0.0771, -0.0809, -0.0809, -0.0702, -0.1107, -0.11, -0.1158, -0.1158, -0.1114, -0.088, -0.0781, -0.0869, -0.0819, -0.0753, -0.0579, -0.0593, -0.0497, -0.0555, -0.06, -0.06, -0.0245, -0.0103, 0.008, 0.0219, 0.0368, 0.0622, 0.1034, 0.1064, -0.0073, -0.047, 0.0136, 0.0129, -0.0141, 0.0162, 0.042, 0.0317, 0.0434, 0.0071, 0.0322, 0.0322, 0.0, 0.0225, 0.0253, 0.0456, 0.0738, 0.0589, 0.0563, 0.0653, 0.0793, 0.0933, 0.0445, 0.0527, 0.04, 0.0565, 0.0543, 0.0662, 0.0626, 0.0417, 0.0282, 0.0273, 0.0247, -0.0077, -0.0486, -0.0777, -0.0985, -0.0983, -0.0712, -0.1061, -0.0747, -0.075, -0.04, -0.0232, -0.0419, -0.0419, -0.0459, -0.0366, -0.0305, -0.023, -0.0247, -0.0286, -0.0069, -0.0173, -0.0181, -0.0051, -0.0136, -0.0416, -0.0289, -0.0383, -0.0334, -0.0409, -0.0587, -0.0687, -0.0548, -0.0558, -0.0747, -0.0668, -0.0385, -0.0369, -0.0322, -0.0302, -0.0341, -0.0395, -0.0468, -0.069, -0.0664, -0.0819, -0.0687, -0.0696, -0.0767, -0.0767, -0.0763, -0.0886, -0.079, -0.0693, -0.0824, -0.0809, -0.09, -0.0824, -0.1159, -0.1136, -0.1281, -0.1643, -0.1381, -0.1376, -0.1152, -0.1128, -0.133, -0.1363, -0.1363, -0.1419, -0.1581, -0.1836, -0.1757, -0.1664, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2023387864461910111", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-16T13:23:54+00:00", "symbol": "Mag 7", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Mag 7 valuations look increasingly stretched when a competitor builds comparable AI for pennies on the dollar.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long gold on structural Chinese buying floor; bearish Mag 7 on stretched valuations vs cheap Chinese AI; bearish NVDA on China market share collapse to 8%.", "resolved_tickers": ["MAGS"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "MAGS ETF tracks the Magnificent 7 stocks", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "We're watching the biggest shift in global economic power unfold in real time.\n\nWhile America debates tariffs, subpoenas its own Fed Chair, and spends $380 billion on AI infrastructure with no measurable returns...\n\nChina just executed the most AGGRESSIVE industrial strategy since the Marshall Plan.\n\nThis week alone, 5 Chinese AI companies - Zhipu, ByteDance, Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek - released or announced major model upgrades simultaneously during Spring Festival.\n\nA RAND report published last month confirmed Chinese AI models now run at one-sixth to one-fourth the cost of comparable American systems.\n\nOne-sixth the cost.\n\nSurveys show the vast majority of US companies investing in AI report \"no change\" in productivity, decision-making, or customer satisfaction.\n\nAmerica is burning cash. China is building products.\n\nBut AI is just one front.\n\nThe \"Four Dragons\" - Moore Threads, MetaX, Biren, Enflame - all went public or filed IPOs in the last two months. \n\nHuawei is doubling output of its flagship Ascend chip to 600,000 units this year and outlined a 3 year roadmap to overtake Nvidia.\n\nBernstein estimates Nvidia's China market share will collapse from 40% to 8% under current export restrictions. Huawei's could rise to 50%.\n\nBeijing is mobilizing $70 billion in chip incentives and mandating state telecoms replace AMD and Intel by 2027.\n\nThey're not competing with our tech stack. They're REPLACING IT.\n\nNow look at energy:\n\nChina invested $1 TRILLION in clean energy in 2025. 4x what they spent on fossil fuels. Clean energy drove over a third of GDP growth last year.\n\nThey produce a full terawatt of solar panel capacity annually. Over 70% of global EV production is Chinese. Nearly half of all new cars sold in China are electric.\n\nThey can power their AI data centers with cheap renewable energy they built themselves.\n\nMeanwhile, America is debating whether to keep wind subsidies.\n\nThe part that should concern every dollar-denominated investor:\n\nChina's central bank has bought gold for 15 consecutive months. \n\nJanuary reserves hit $369.6 billion, up $51 billion in a single month.\n\nThe World Gold Council suggests actual holdings could be DOUBLE the reported figures.\n\nThe Shanghai Gold Exchange is expanding renminbi-priced contracts overseas. Yuan-based trade is growing with Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Indonesia.\n\nThey're not just accumulating gold. They're building the infrastructure to challenge how global commodities get priced.\n\nAnd China's trade machine? Record $3.77 trillion in exports last year. \n\n$1.19 trillion surplus - the largest any country has EVER recorded.\n\nBut they've completely redirected it. \n\nExports to America fell 28.6%. Exports to Africa surged 27.5%. ASEAN up 8.2%.\n\nGoldman raised its 2026 China growth forecast to 4.8%.\n\nAdd it up:\n\n- AI at a fraction of the cost\n- A parallel chip ecosystem\n- $1 trillion per year in clean energy\n- 15 months of gold buying\n- A record trade surplus pivoted toward the Global South\n\nTheir 15th Five-Year Plan covers quantum computing, 6G, hydrogen energy, and biomedicine. \n\nThis is a country that installed 277 gigawatts of solar in a single year while we argued about tax credits.\n\nMy positioning:\n\nGold and precious metals remain a core holding. China's buying puts a structural floor under prices, and they're NOT slowing down.\n\nMag 7 valuations look increasingly stretched when a competitor builds comparable AI for pennies on the dollar.\n\nEnergy stocks stay attractive - the transition is measured in decades, not quarters.\n\nChina is building the future.\n\nAmerica is unfortunately just talking about it.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM access is LIVE\n\nIncluding 7 NEW features NOT available on the basic Substack:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the annual plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nThis was in the works for a long time, and it's a steal for the value you get\n\nSign up here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0019585267012930396, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0019585267012930396, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0003476428160356093, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0003476428160356093, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006854874584746096, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.006854874584746096, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0018171670341693424, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0018171670341693424, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "ret_p1w": 0.016974064105716336, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.016974064105716336, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.010384060068397538, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.010384060068397538, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "ret_p1m": -0.017463680215929145, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.017463680215929145, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.013904839642638, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.013904839642638, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "ret_p3m": 0.13987262634402398, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13987262634402398, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.054438451038486546, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.054438451038486546, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0124, 0.0208, 0.0544, 0.0619, 0.0666, 0.0666, 0.0738, 0.0726, 0.0777, 0.0777, 0.083, 0.0877, 0.078, 0.0803, 0.0808, 0.0727, 0.064, 0.0653, 0.0738, 0.0505, 0.0711, 0.0796, 0.0856, 0.0959, 0.0965, 0.0965, 0.0936, 0.0851, 0.0839, 0.0765, 0.0765, 0.0666, 0.0754, 0.0715, 0.0756, 0.0752, 0.0832, 0.0819, 0.077, 0.0606, 0.0623, 0.0592, 0.0592, 0.0273, 0.0387, 0.0597, 0.071, 0.0759, 0.0862, 0.086, 0.0834, 0.0796, 0.0797, 0.0622, 0.046, 0.0253, 0.03, 0.0419, 0.0377, 0.0313, 0.0075, -0.002, -0.002, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0052, 0.0217, 0.0054, 0.017, 0.0326, 0.0163, 0.0013, 0.0055, 0.0003, 0.0157, 0.0145, -0.0046, 0.0073, 0.0108, 0.0144, -0.0052, -0.0217, -0.0064, -0.0023, -0.0175, -0.0281, -0.0473, -0.0325, -0.045, -0.0379, -0.0692, -0.095, -0.096, -0.0543, -0.0423, -0.049, -0.049, -0.0472, -0.0486, -0.0237, -0.009, -0.0021, 0.008, 0.0382, 0.0651, 0.0659, 0.0845, 0.0733, 0.0659, 0.0844, 0.0663, 0.0865, 0.0948, 0.0912, 0.0867, 0.0811, 0.0914, 0.093, 0.0953, 0.1173, 0.1244, 0.1363, 0.1333, 0.1281, 0.1511, 0.1578, 0.1399, 0.1337, 0.1185, 0.1342, 0.1343, 0.132, 0.132, 0.1364, 0.1479, 0.1567, 0.1541, 0.1402, 0.1289, 0.1167, 0.1281, 0.0855, 0.0858, 0.0717, 0.0481, 0.0594, 0.0594, 0.0873, 0.0841, 0.0534, 0.0681, 0.0681, 0.0449, 0.0305, 0.023, -0.0033, 0.0054, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2023387864461910111", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-02-16T13:23:54+00:00", "symbol": "NVDA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Bernstein estimates Nvidia's China market share will collapse from 40% to 8% under current export restrictions.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long gold on structural Chinese buying floor; bearish Mag 7 on stretched valuations vs cheap Chinese AI; bearish NVDA on China market share collapse to 8%.", "resolved_tickers": ["NVDA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "We're watching the biggest shift in global economic power unfold in real time.\n\nWhile America debates tariffs, subpoenas its own Fed Chair, and spends $380 billion on AI infrastructure with no measurable returns...\n\nChina just executed the most AGGRESSIVE industrial strategy since the Marshall Plan.\n\nThis week alone, 5 Chinese AI companies - Zhipu, ByteDance, Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek - released or announced major model upgrades simultaneously during Spring Festival.\n\nA RAND report published last month confirmed Chinese AI models now run at one-sixth to one-fourth the cost of comparable American systems.\n\nOne-sixth the cost.\n\nSurveys show the vast majority of US companies investing in AI report \"no change\" in productivity, decision-making, or customer satisfaction.\n\nAmerica is burning cash. China is building products.\n\nBut AI is just one front.\n\nThe \"Four Dragons\" - Moore Threads, MetaX, Biren, Enflame - all went public or filed IPOs in the last two months. \n\nHuawei is doubling output of its flagship Ascend chip to 600,000 units this year and outlined a 3 year roadmap to overtake Nvidia.\n\nBernstein estimates Nvidia's China market share will collapse from 40% to 8% under current export restrictions. Huawei's could rise to 50%.\n\nBeijing is mobilizing $70 billion in chip incentives and mandating state telecoms replace AMD and Intel by 2027.\n\nThey're not competing with our tech stack. They're REPLACING IT.\n\nNow look at energy:\n\nChina invested $1 TRILLION in clean energy in 2025. 4x what they spent on fossil fuels. Clean energy drove over a third of GDP growth last year.\n\nThey produce a full terawatt of solar panel capacity annually. Over 70% of global EV production is Chinese. Nearly half of all new cars sold in China are electric.\n\nThey can power their AI data centers with cheap renewable energy they built themselves.\n\nMeanwhile, America is debating whether to keep wind subsidies.\n\nThe part that should concern every dollar-denominated investor:\n\nChina's central bank has bought gold for 15 consecutive months. \n\nJanuary reserves hit $369.6 billion, up $51 billion in a single month.\n\nThe World Gold Council suggests actual holdings could be DOUBLE the reported figures.\n\nThe Shanghai Gold Exchange is expanding renminbi-priced contracts overseas. Yuan-based trade is growing with Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Indonesia.\n\nThey're not just accumulating gold. They're building the infrastructure to challenge how global commodities get priced.\n\nAnd China's trade machine? Record $3.77 trillion in exports last year. \n\n$1.19 trillion surplus - the largest any country has EVER recorded.\n\nBut they've completely redirected it. \n\nExports to America fell 28.6%. Exports to Africa surged 27.5%. ASEAN up 8.2%.\n\nGoldman raised its 2026 China growth forecast to 4.8%.\n\nAdd it up:\n\n- AI at a fraction of the cost\n- A parallel chip ecosystem\n- $1 trillion per year in clean energy\n- 15 months of gold buying\n- A record trade surplus pivoted toward the Global South\n\nTheir 15th Five-Year Plan covers quantum computing, 6G, hydrogen energy, and biomedicine. \n\nThis is a country that installed 277 gigawatts of solar in a single year while we argued about tax credits.\n\nMy positioning:\n\nGold and precious metals remain a core holding. China's buying puts a structural floor under prices, and they're NOT slowing down.\n\nMag 7 valuations look increasingly stretched when a competitor builds comparable AI for pennies on the dollar.\n\nEnergy stocks stay attractive - the transition is measured in decades, not quarters.\n\nChina is building the future.\n\nAmerica is unfortunately just talking about it.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM access is LIVE\n\nIncluding 7 NEW features NOT available on the basic Substack:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the annual plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nThis was in the works for a long time, and it's a steal for the value you get\n\nSign up here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.011677625642508516, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.011677625642508516, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.010066741757251085, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.012192929438846867, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0005153037963383511, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01627282163254007, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.01627282163254007, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.011235114081963316, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0039050811928820206, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012367740439658048, "ret_p1w": 0.04260153705655223, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04260153705655223, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03601153301923343, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.014013297216297183, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": 0.028588239840255047, "ret_p1m": -0.02465395826875516, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02465395826875516, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.006714561589811985, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.009308388682797153, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.033962346951552314, "ret_p3m": 0.21820945110798529, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.21820945110798529, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.13277527580244786, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.14700861353646788, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": 0.36521806464445317, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.0235, -0.033, -0.0131, -0.0387, -0.0255, -0.0255, -0.0431, -0.0274, -0.019, -0.0291, -0.0086, -0.0138, 0.0031, 0.0, -0.0064, -0.0218, -0.0538, -0.0469, -0.0392, -0.0759, -0.0586, -0.0215, -0.0069, 0.0229, 0.0197, 0.0197, 0.0301, 0.0176, 0.0139, 0.0083, 0.0083, 0.021, 0.017, 0.0123, 0.0224, 0.0004, -0.0006, -0.0002, 0.0045, -0.0099, 0.0112, 0.0068, 0.0068, -0.0373, -0.0089, -0.0007, 0.0146, 0.0081, 0.0192, 0.0354, 0.0408, 0.0333, 0.0035, -0.025, -0.0583, -0.0708, 0.0024, 0.0274, 0.0193, 0.0275, 0.0107, -0.0117, -0.0117, 0.0, 0.0163, 0.0158, 0.0262, 0.0356, 0.0426, 0.0573, -0.0004, -0.0421, -0.0135, -0.0266, -0.0104, -0.0088, -0.0387, -0.0125, -0.0011, 0.0058, -0.0098, -0.0255, -0.0094, -0.0164, -0.0247, -0.0346, -0.0663, -0.0504, -0.0528, -0.034, -0.0742, -0.0943, -0.107, -0.0571, -0.0498, -0.0409, -0.0409, -0.0396, -0.0371, -0.0156, -0.0057, 0.0198, 0.0235, 0.0624, 0.0752, 0.0724, 0.0904, 0.0925, 0.0807, 0.0948, 0.0794, 0.126, 0.1711, 0.1525, 0.1313, 0.079, 0.0729, 0.0731, 0.0624, 0.1236, 0.1435, 0.1635, 0.1864, 0.1937, 0.221, 0.2745, 0.2182, 0.202, 0.1927, 0.2082, 0.1868, 0.1642, 0.1642, 0.1617, 0.1494, 0.1584, 0.1415, 0.213, 0.2047, 0.1611, 0.1836, 0.1102, 0.1293, 0.1269, 0.0848, 0.1089, 0.1107, 0.15, 0.1227, 0.1077, 0.1404, 0.1404, 0.1294, 0.0828, 0.0772, 0.0595, 0.0421, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2026126339821146329", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-24T02:45:37+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Holders will be shocked by the extent of the coming collapse in $BTC", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bearish BTC; dismisses $60k cost-of-production floor narrative, expects a dramatic collapse from current levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Holders will be shocked by the extent of the coming collapse in $BTC \n\nSHOCKED", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Bitcoin breaches $64k to the downside.\nBut not to worry as Tom Lee @fundstrat promised (last week) that $60k will be the bottom (because it approximates the cost of production).\nMade up narrative.\nI call BS.\nAgain.\n@dougkass @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeDJ", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.008375389397939914, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.008375389397939914, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.015591415163313638, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.015591415163313638, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007216025765373724, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007216025765373724, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.060550552894326426, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.060550552894326426, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.05211224659378799, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.05211224659378799, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.008438306300538434, "bench_c_p1d": 0.008438306300538434, "ret_p1w": 0.06575534711805453, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06575534711805453, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0759683347682184, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0759683347682184, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.010212987650163874, "bench_c_p1w": -0.010212987650163874, "ret_p1m": 0.1128251403838132, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1128251403838132, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.15463236589001916, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.15463236589001916, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04180722550620597, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04180722550620597, "ret_p3m": 0.1780304551966898, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1780304551966898, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.09026380329820483, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.09026380329820483, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08776665189848498, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08776665189848498, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1128251403838132, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.15463236589001916, "alpha_c_stated": -0.15463236589001916, "price_path": [0.4246, 0.4188, 0.3471, 0.4256, 0.4595, 0.4379, 0.3949, 0.4145, 0.4465, 0.436, 0.4437, 0.4087, 0.3486, 0.3708, 0.3443, 0.3337, 0.3749, 0.3809, 0.3641, 0.3672, 0.3613, 0.3624, 0.3598, 0.38, 0.3656, 0.3847, 0.4036, 0.4651, 0.4627, 0.4249, 0.4205, 0.4125, 0.4231, 0.4875, 0.5126, 0.4911, 0.4907, 0.4443, 0.3781, 0.3948, 0.3961, 0.3968, 0.3775, 0.3905, 0.3918, 0.3196, 0.3129, 0.228, 0.1803, 0.1395, -0.0215, 0.1011, 0.0943, 0.0736, 0.0454, 0.0334, 0.0746, 0.0743, 0.0533, 0.0366, 0.0449, 0.0613, 0.0084, 0.0, 0.0606, 0.0526, 0.0281, 0.0733, 0.0658, 0.1347, 0.1055, 0.0633, 0.0675, 0.0912, 0.0956, 0.1001, 0.1075, 0.1682, 0.1536, 0.1118, 0.091, 0.1005, 0.1067, 0.1005, 0.1128, 0.0735, 0.0352, 0.0408, 0.0648, 0.0624, 0.0438, 0.0445, 0.0746, 0.1227, 0.1099, 0.12, 0.1389, 0.1624, 0.1576, 0.1674, 0.1728, 0.2036, 0.184, 0.1915, 0.2204, 0.2214, 0.2087, 0.2073, 0.1915, 0.1825, 0.1908, 0.22, 0.2458, 0.2629, 0.2707, 0.2486, 0.2514, 0.2754, 0.2559, 0.2372, 0.2648, 0.2339, 0.2009, 0.1977, 0.2088, 0.21, 0.178, 0.206, 0.1833, 0.1602, 0.1476, 0.145, 0.113, 0.0409, -0.001, -0.0043, -0.0493, -0.0154, -0.038, -0.0411, -0.0081, -0.0084, 0.0345, 0.0237, 0.0053, -0.0185, -0.0084, -0.002, -0.022, -0.0481, -0.068, -0.0634, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2007227623517368621", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-02T23:08:52+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect sales to decline in 2026 for the third consecutive year", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish on Tesla; expects sales to decline in 2026 for the third consecutive year, undercutting the bull case valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@RangarajSrikan1 @elonmusk That is quite optimistic in my view, especially as I expect sales to decline in 2026 for the third consecutive year.\nTo your credit however, you are one of the very few that even attempted to justify the valuation.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @elonmusk 4 million cars , 25 percent gross margin, on 45k asp. And operating margin of 17 percent - basically I’m  predicting car sales will more than double very quickly and I’ve added Fsd into the gross profits. \n\nPlus 5 billion in gross profit from energy (which directly translates to", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "RangarajSrikan1", "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_stated": 0.10246011414178635, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006741783443853526", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-01T14:58:19+00:00", "symbol": "TLT", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Wrong conclusion. In fact, the opposite will occur. Short TLT.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Explicitly disagrees with parent's TLT bull thesis; calls for TLT to fall in 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TLT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@commonsenseplay @TaviCosta Wrong conclusion. In fact, the opposite will occur. Short TLT.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@TaviCosta This means long term bonds ETF's like $TLT will rip higher in 2026.\n\nhttps://t.co/dj1X82hKpA", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "commonsenseplay", "ret_m1d": 0.001493820616832453, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.001493820616832453, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0033234600024630856, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0033234600024630856, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004940934061271607, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004940934061271607, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0017192730469730577, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0017192730469730577, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "ret_p1w": 0.010341429655286838, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.010341429655286838, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.005613643720698169, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.005613643720698169, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "ret_p1m": -0.0017114089343763794, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0017114089343763794, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0196278815987323, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0196278815987323, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "ret_p3m": 0.002240820247218167, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.002240820247218167, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.04050436304556493, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.04050436304556493, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0017114089343763794, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0196278815987323, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0196278815987323, "price_path": [0.0134, 0.0142, 0.0134, 0.0298, 0.0292, 0.0325, 0.0303, 0.038, 0.0364, 0.0404, 0.0455, 0.0462, 0.039, 0.0395, 0.043, 0.0457, 0.0351, 0.0291, 0.0261, 0.0235, 0.0258, 0.0146, 0.0237, 0.0215, 0.0213, 0.026, 0.0278, 0.0194, 0.0136, 0.0161, 0.0157, 0.0137, 0.0177, 0.0207, 0.0266, 0.0292, 0.0338, 0.0338, 0.0288, 0.016, 0.0165, 0.0194, 0.0139, 0.0092, 0.0059, 0.0069, 0.0108, 0.0094, -0.0003, 0.0004, 0.0059, 0.0049, 0.0097, 0.006, 0.0038, 0.0054, 0.0115, 0.0115, 0.0082, 0.012, 0.0095, 0.0015, 0.0015, 0.0, 0.0049, 0.0029, 0.0087, 0.0037, 0.0103, 0.0074, 0.0091, 0.0149, 0.0147, 0.0088, 0.0088, -0.0044, 0.0032, 0.0076, 0.0103, 0.0152, 0.0088, 0.0065, 0.0068, 0.0011, -0.0017, 0.0007, -0.0018, 0.009, 0.0097, 0.0095, 0.0211, 0.0157, 0.0292, 0.0349, 0.0349, 0.0366, 0.0327, 0.0337, 0.0313, 0.0351, 0.0369, 0.037, 0.0412, 0.0475, 0.037, 0.0349, 0.0317, 0.0275, 0.0237, 0.0326, 0.0216, 0.0084, 0.0065, 0.0015, 0.0092, 0.012, 0.0064, 0.0125, -0.0067, -0.0002, -0.0046, 0.005, -0.0035, -0.0089, 0.0043, 0.0032, 0.0022, 0.0084, 0.0084, 0.0068, 0.0067, 0.0099, 0.0074, 0.0049, 0.0079, 0.0133, 0.0089, 0.0025, 0.0117, 0.0114, 0.0058, 0.0078, 0.0056, 0.0075, 0.0025, 0.0035, -0.0043, -0.0052, -0.0016, -0.0092, -0.0037, 0.0038, -0.0012, 0.0038, -0.0022, -0.0089, -0.0111, -0.0097, -0.0244, -0.0255, -0.0318, -0.0215, -0.0178, -0.0125, -0.0125, -0.0076, -0.0053, -0.0001, 0.0001, 0.0006, 0.0028, -0.0012, 0.001, -0.0042, -0.0093, -0.0034, -0.0063, 0.0066, 0.0042, 0.0036, 0.0091, 0.0107, 0.0156, 0.0156, 0.0079, 0.0092, 0.023, 0.0227, 0.0228, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2006809745584435478", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-01T19:28:22+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I have never seen a stock so detached from reality for such a long period of time. It is always about tomorrow - but tomorrow never arrives. $TSLA stock has been fantastic, but the company has done abysmally on a fundamental basis. Just look at the financials.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: stock detached from reality, company fundamentally abysmal despite narrative-driven price strength.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I have never seen a stock so detached from reality for such a long period of time. It is always about tomorrow - but tomorrow never arrives. $TSLA stock has been fantastic, but the company has done abysmally on a fundamental basis. Just look at the financials.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @elonmusk Shareholder base doesn't seem to care about car sales or losing subsidies and are so sold on robots and space they don't even care about Tesla robo-car fails.\n\nNo clue what such catalyst would be unless US markets find sobriety and/or some serious litigation drops", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.026593908968212343, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.026593908968212343, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.028423548353842976, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.017637361069777535, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008956547898434808, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.031045280151877908, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.031045280151877908, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.024385073043633243, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.014568708932490848, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01647657121938706, "ret_p1w": 0.015842222305509024, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.015842222305509024, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0001128510704759833, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03536186942391506, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.051204091729424084, "ret_p1m": -0.03711737734555942, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06770470393027994, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03058732658472052, "ret_p3m": -0.12968246309669917, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.12968246309669917, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09141892029835241, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05930285557113557, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0703796075255636, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06770470393027994, "price_path": [-0.0114, 0.0014, -0.0058, -0.0561, -0.005, -0.0202, -0.0067, -0.0213, 0.0028, 0.0214, 0.0103, 0.0021, 0.0249, -0.0099, 0.0328, 0.0513, 0.0535, 0.0046, 0.0422, 0.0692, 0.0141, 0.0548, 0.0179, -0.0195, 0.0163, 0.0035, -0.0171, -0.0824, -0.077, -0.0665, -0.0841, -0.0778, -0.0978, -0.1072, -0.0463, -0.0426, -0.0262, -0.0262, -0.018, -0.0181, -0.0202, 0.0198, 0.0376, 0.0386, 0.0034, 0.0162, 0.0305, 0.0201, 0.0477, 0.085, 0.1183, 0.0666, 0.1034, 0.0985, 0.1156, 0.1084, 0.108, 0.108, 0.0847, 0.0492, 0.0373, 0.0266, 0.0266, 0.0, 0.031, -0.0117, -0.0152, -0.0052, 0.0158, 0.0249, 0.0208, 0.0026, 0.0011, -0.0013, -0.0013, -0.043, -0.0151, 0.0258, 0.0251, -0.0066, -0.0164, -0.0151, -0.0491, -0.0175, -0.0371, -0.0368, -0.0732, -0.0933, -0.0615, -0.0474, -0.0294, -0.0224, -0.0479, -0.0471, -0.0471, -0.0626, -0.0611, -0.0602, -0.0599, -0.0873, -0.0655, -0.0472, -0.0673, -0.0812, -0.0793, -0.1042, -0.0733, -0.0742, -0.0944, -0.0899, -0.0886, -0.0691, -0.0983, -0.107, -0.097, -0.0886, -0.1034, -0.1319, -0.16, -0.1306, -0.1256, -0.119, -0.1506, -0.174, -0.189, -0.1514, -0.1297, -0.1769, -0.1769, -0.1946, -0.2087, -0.2164, -0.211, -0.2034, -0.1955, -0.1686, -0.1053, -0.1122, -0.0855, -0.104, -0.1179, -0.1154, -0.1469, -0.141, -0.1356, -0.1416, -0.149, -0.1288, -0.1079, -0.104, -0.1112, -0.0898, -0.06, -0.0222, 0.0158, -0.0105, 0.0164, 0.0119, -0.0361, -0.0641, -0.0775, -0.0475, -0.0462, -0.0275, -0.0275, -0.0102, 0.0052, 0.0092, -0.0052, -0.0507, -0.0327, -0.0328, -0.0448, -0.1074, -0.0665, -0.0945, -0.1289, -0.0888, -0.0722, -0.0615, -0.0763, -0.0952, -0.0858, -0.0858, -0.0754, -0.1289, -0.1428, -0.1437, -0.1332, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2024161053584539912", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-18T16:36:16+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short from $7.5, so I am all good. $OPEN shareholders, not so much. The question $OPEN shareholders need to answer is at what point will they realize they have been bagged.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Live short position in OPEN from $7.50; bearish thesis intact, sees shareholders as bagholders.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@doebop Read my feed. I am short from $7.5, so I am all good. $OPEN shareholders, not so much. The question $OPEN shareholders need to answer is at what point will they realize they have been bagged. https://t.co/7rErmbJTzX", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 so you would only cover if the management changes your mind? even if the price goes to $8 and you're upside down? curious your price target for covering?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "doebop", "ret_m1d": -0.06479485600857027, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.06479485600857027, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05978239974675059, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.07840493606655063, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050124562618196755, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013610080057980367, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004319650201332292, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004319650201332292, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006956994524881854, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007779877913270172, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637344323549562, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00346022771193788, "ret_p1w": 0.07559393001760895, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07559393001760895, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0655980749522771, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07351788275583138, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009995855065331849, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0020760472617775694, "ret_p1m": 0.11015113162826795, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.11015113162826795, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.14874998635313585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.14313857623848514, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.038598854724867904, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03298744461021719, "ret_p3m": -0.07559393001760895, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07559393001760895, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15482762851527587, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09160454305074617, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07923369849766693, "bench_c_p3m": 0.016010613033137222, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.11015113162826795, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.14874998635313585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.14313857623848514, "price_path": [0.4579, 0.6609, 0.6717, 0.6803, 0.6803, 0.6631, 0.5421, 0.5097, 0.4989, 0.6371, 0.5443, 0.5227, 0.6004, 0.5119, 0.5227, 0.4168, 0.3974, 0.4536, 0.3218, 0.3564, 0.3737, 0.3866, 0.3542, 0.3564, 0.3564, 0.2981, 0.2592, 0.2613, 0.2592, 0.2592, 0.311, 0.365, 0.4968, 0.3218, 0.3888, 0.5745, 0.5162, 0.4622, 0.4341, 0.3607, 0.4406, 0.4406, 0.3801, 0.3996, 0.3866, 0.2981, 0.2678, 0.2549, 0.2441, 0.2052, 0.1123, 0.041, 0.108, 0.0799, 0.0151, 0.054, 0.067, 0.013, 0.0281, -0.054, -0.04, -0.04, -0.0648, 0.0, 0.0043, 0.0799, 0.0324, 0.1037, 0.0756, 0.1685, 0.1706, 0.0907, 0.0734, 0.054, 0.1188, 0.0799, 0.0972, 0.0821, 0.1382, 0.0454, 0.0691, 0.1188, 0.2009, 0.1404, 0.1102, 0.0605, 0.1253, 0.1188, 0.1015, 0.0583, 0.0367, -0.0432, 0.0108, -0.013, 0.0238, 0.0238, -0.0043, -0.0173, 0.0022, -0.0691, -0.067, -0.0583, -0.0259, 0.041, 0.1382, 0.1425, 0.1555, 0.1771, 0.1728, 0.1274, 0.1901, 0.1641, 0.1836, 0.2052, 0.162, 0.1749, 0.108, 0.1296, 0.1793, 0.149, 0.0821, 0.0475, 0.0173, -0.0108, -0.0346, -0.054, -0.0756, -0.0713, -0.0497, -0.013, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0324, 0.0259, 0.095, 0.0886, 0.1469, 0.1685, 0.0518, 0.0691, -0.0454, -0.0691, -0.0626, -0.0324, -0.0346, -0.041, -0.0043, 0.0259, -0.0389, -0.0346, -0.0346, -0.0756, -0.0929, -0.0756, -0.0713, -0.0562, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2009347391183544633", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-08T19:32:04+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is wildly overvalued at 20x revenues. Application of 3x- 10x tech multiple would imply a share price of $1.50 to 4.00", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: overvalued at 20x true gross profit; fair value $1.50–$4.00 on 3–10x tech multiple of $378M gross profit.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Your valuation methodology is completely flawed and nonsensical.\nThe relevant number for comparing $OPEN to other companies is the $378 mm that they report as gross profits for the last 12 months, not the $4.7B that they show as revenues. \nOn that basis $OPEN is wildly overvalued at 20x revenues. \nApplication of 3x- 10x tech multiple \nwould imply a share price of\n$1.50 to 4.00.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 George, \n\nDo you know they are transitioning from iBuying, capital intensive, to an AI powered marketplace for sellers and buyers. \n\nDo you know Uber was started by a dude who was not in the taxi company. \n\nDo you know sometimes it's good to have someone not in the industry to", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "DiamondHandsDoc", "ret_m1d": -0.048211500941771956, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.048211500941771956, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.048313038564887445, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.04079315576182829, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010153762311548853, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007418345179943664, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.13374808032251684, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.13374808032251684, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.1271346973256282, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.13226439212733143, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.006613382996888628, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014836881951854064, "ret_p1w": -0.02021767357299431, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02021767357299431, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.024177017944294943, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.051375029875905365, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003959344371300633, "bench_c_p1w": 0.031157356302911055, "ret_p1m": -0.24105750470885978, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.24105750470885978, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.24266733433388954, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.27938595675784483, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0016098296250297572, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03832845204898505, "ret_p3m": -0.29237942267403016, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.29237942267403016, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2510606402783224, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.33096537432713835, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04131878239570774, "bench_c_p3m": 0.038585951653108186, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.24105750470885978, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.24266733433388954, "alpha_c_stated": 0.27938595675784483, "price_path": [0.1306, 0.1882, 0.1477, 0.1058, 0.1135, 0.1462, 0.0824, 0.0607, 0.0933, 0.2395, 0.2691, 0.2395, 0.1897, 0.1415, 0.2084, 0.1804, 0.0762, 0.1244, 0.0202, 0.0202, 0.2395, 0.3188, 0.4572, 0.3313, 0.2628, 0.2193, 0.1695, 0.0404, -0.042, 0.0498, 0.196, 0.2037, 0.21, 0.21, 0.1975, 0.1104, 0.0871, 0.0793, 0.1788, 0.112, 0.0964, 0.1524, 0.0886, 0.0964, 0.0202, 0.0062, 0.0467, -0.0482, -0.0233, -0.0109, -0.0016, -0.0249, -0.0233, -0.0233, -0.0653, -0.0933, -0.0918, -0.0933, -0.0933, -0.056, -0.0171, 0.0778, -0.0482, 0.0, 0.1337, 0.0918, 0.0529, 0.0327, -0.0202, 0.0373, 0.0373, -0.0062, 0.0078, -0.0016, -0.0653, -0.0871, -0.0964, -0.1042, -0.1322, -0.1991, -0.2504, -0.2022, -0.2224, -0.2691, -0.2411, -0.2317, -0.2706, -0.2597, -0.3188, -0.3087, -0.3087, -0.3266, -0.2799, -0.2768, -0.2224, -0.2566, -0.2053, -0.2255, -0.1586, -0.1571, -0.2146, -0.2271, -0.2411, -0.1944, -0.2224, -0.21, -0.2208, -0.1804, -0.2473, -0.2302, -0.1944, -0.1353, -0.1788, -0.2006, -0.2364, -0.1897, -0.1944, -0.2068, -0.2379, -0.2535, -0.311, -0.2722, -0.2893, -0.2628, -0.2628, -0.283, -0.2924, -0.2784, -0.3297, -0.3281, -0.3219, -0.2986, -0.2504, -0.1804, -0.1773, -0.168, -0.1524, -0.1555, -0.1882, -0.1431, -0.1617, -0.1477, -0.1322, -0.1633, -0.154, -0.2022, -0.1866, -0.1509, -0.1726, -0.2208, -0.2457, -0.2675, -0.2877, -0.3048, -0.3188, -0.3344, -0.3313, -0.3157, -0.2893, -0.2955, -0.2955, -0.3033, -0.2613, -0.2115, -0.2162, -0.1742, -0.1586, -0.2426, -0.2302, -0.3126, -0.3297, -0.325, -0.3033, -0.3048, -0.3095, -0.283, -0.2613, -0.3079, -0.3048, -0.3048, -0.3344, -0.3468, -0.3344, -0.3313, -0.3204, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2046565891647647814", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-21T12:25:06+00:00", "symbol": "XLE", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Actually think now is a good entry point after the recent correction!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish on XLE after recent pullback; sees current level as good entry.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@nickgiva1 Actually think now is a good entry point after the recent correction!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 I was actually looking at this...but you are right, there were signs even here and in XLE. https://t.co/IEBPwKVgsY", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "nickgiva1", "ret_m1d": -0.01431898152535449, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01431898152535449, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.02090901864075645, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02090901864075645, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011992131554121155, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011992131554121155, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0018654194590022044, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0018654194590022044, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "ret_p1w": 0.03293357498371163, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03293357498371163, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.022125218825340465, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.022125218825340465, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "ret_p1m": 0.07034184029040969, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07034184029040969, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.017549580944094423, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.017549580944094423, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07034184029040969, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.017549580944094423, "alpha_c_stated": 0.017549580944094423, "price_path": [-0.1303, -0.1253, -0.1247, -0.1167, -0.11, -0.1018, -0.0922, -0.11, -0.0812, -0.0606, -0.0716, -0.0531, -0.0461, -0.0472, -0.0223, -0.0401, -0.0335, -0.0335, -0.0442, -0.0259, -0.0188, -0.0241, -0.0193, -0.0202, -0.0243, -0.0211, -0.0056, 0.0143, 0.0051, -0.0008, 0.0044, 0.006, 0.0015, -0.0113, 0.0132, 0.0227, 0.0261, 0.0296, 0.0405, 0.039, 0.0556, 0.0547, 0.0673, 0.089, 0.0841, 0.1011, 0.1197, 0.109, 0.0965, 0.0555, 0.0605, 0.0605, 0.0682, 0.0768, 0.039, 0.0261, 0.0192, 0.0222, 0.0014, -0.002, 0.0127, -0.0152, -0.0143, 0.0, 0.012, 0.0199, 0.0179, 0.0161, 0.0329, 0.0566, 0.0677, 0.0533, 0.063, 0.0641, 0.0202, 0.0014, -0.003, 0.0233, 0.0304, 0.0315, 0.0394, 0.0639, 0.0843, 0.097, 0.0703, 0.0583, 0.0648, 0.0648, 0.0354, 0.02, 0.0193, 0.0075, 0.0256, 0.0374, 0.0508, 0.0515, 0.0322, 0.044, 0.0272, 0.0426, 0.0224, 0.0301, -0.0057, -0.0091, -0.0215, -0.0376, -0.0376, -0.0254, -0.0182, -0.0343, -0.0249, -0.0294, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2032454640709644663", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-13T13:52:02+00:00", "symbol": "AAPL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Apple is going to win the AI race because they're REFUSING to participate. This is not falling behind. This is capital allocation at the highest level.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long AAPL on disciplined capital allocation vs AI capex arms race; bearish on AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT/META given catastrophic risk of $700B+ infrastructure spending failing to generate returns.", "resolved_tickers": ["AAPL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Consumer Electronics'", "bench_c_industry": "Consumer Electronics", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Apple is going to win the AI race because they're REFUSING to participate.\n\nEveryone's laughing at them for \"falling behind\".\n\nBut there's a concept in investing most people misunderstand:\n\nThe assumption is that whoever spends the most wins. \n\nBigger capex = bigger moat = bigger returns\n\nHistorically, the OPPOSITE is true.\n\nCompanies that outspend their peers on capital expenditure consistently deliver worse forward returns than companies that exercise discipline. \n\nThe data is unambiguous.\n\nAnd right now we're watching the most aggressive capex arms race in the history of corporate America.\n\nAmazon announced $200 billion in 2026 capex. The stock dropped 11% the day after. Alphabet committed $175-185 billion. Microsoft $145 billion. Meta $115-135 billion.\n\nThese companies are now consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on infrastructure spending. They're borrowing over $400 billion collectively to cover the gap.\n\nMeanwhile Apple:\n\n- Sits on $130 billion in cash\n- Returns $100+ billion a year to shareholders through buybacks and dividends\n- Outsources its AI compute to partners instead of building its own infrastructure from scratch\n\nWall Street calls this \"falling behind.\"\n\nI call it DISCIPLINE.\n\nAnd there's a perfect parallel from the auto industry:\n\nToyota refused to go all in on EVs when every other manufacturer was racing to electrify. \n\nThe media hammered them. Analysts downgraded them. The narrative was that Toyota was a dinosaur.\n\nInstead, Toyota doubled down on hybrids, let competitors burn through capital on first-generation EV infrastructure, and watched the early adopters make expensive mistakes (eange anxiety, charging network gaps, margin compression).\n\nThe result? Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024. Fifth consecutive year as the world's top-selling automaker. \n\nHybrids now account for nearly half their US sales. \n\nTheir stock has outperformed every major traditional automaker over the past four years.\n\nThe late mover won. The disciplined capital allocator won.\n\nNot because Toyota ignored the future but because they let EVERYONE ELSE pay for the learning curve.\n\nThat's EXACTLY what Apple is doing with AI.\n\nThey're watching Microsoft, Amazon, and Google pour hundreds of billions into data centers and GPU clusters. They're observing which approaches work and which don't.\n\nThey're keeping their powder dry.\n\nWhen the technology matures and the economics clarify, Apple will move. \n\nWith $130 billion in cash, they can acquire or build whatever they need - on THEIR timeline, at THEIR price, after everyone else has made the expensive mistakes.\n\nThis is not falling behind. This is capital allocation at the highest level.\n\nThe companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history.\n\nApple's risk? Missing a cycle. That's manageable.\n\nEveryone else's risk? Spending $700 billion on infrastructure that generates insufficient returns. That's CATASTROPHIC.\n\nSometimes the smartest move in an arms race is refusing to participate.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to upcoming Best Stock Idea Summits.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02254912688553601, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.02254912688553601, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.01685677162942545, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.014946869700228405, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0056923552561105595, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007602257185307604, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010794859745288043, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010794859745288043, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.000617994734831484, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0036788468277779707, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01017686501045656, "bench_c_p1d": 0.014473706573066014, "ret_p1w": -0.00851590080978093, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.00851590080978093, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.009525625468895904, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.002522136975755207, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.018041526278676834, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011038037785536137, "ret_p1m": 0.036302627574560375, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.036302627574560375, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0024775791016371507, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.02942132386831542, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.038780206676197526, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0657239514428758, "ret_p3m": 0.16683442455340414, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.16683442455340414, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.06850716596245587, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12592588211752043, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09832725859094826, "bench_c_p3m": 0.29276030667092456, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0969, 0.0858, 0.0872, 0.0931, 0.0823, 0.0879, 0.0937, 0.0937, 0.0921, 0.0935, 0.0908, 0.0859, 0.0859, 0.0825, 0.0675, 0.048, 0.0398, 0.0347, 0.036, 0.0395, 0.0427, 0.0384, 0.0314, 0.0207, 0.0207, -0.0146, -0.0108, -0.008, -0.0092, 0.0202, 0.0316, 0.0243, 0.0317, 0.0365, 0.0785, 0.0764, 0.1044, 0.1021, 0.1109, 0.098, 0.0942, 0.1015, 0.0464, 0.0226, 0.0226, 0.055, 0.0569, 0.0418, 0.0578, 0.0642, 0.088, 0.0964, 0.0913, 0.0562, 0.0584, 0.0545, 0.0496, 0.0407, 0.0293, 0.039, 0.0428, 0.0427, 0.0225, 0.0, 0.0108, 0.0164, -0.0007, -0.0046, -0.0085, 0.0055, 0.0061, 0.01, 0.0111, -0.0053, -0.014, 0.0147, 0.022, 0.0232, 0.0232, 0.0349, 0.0135, 0.0351, 0.0415, 0.0414, 0.0363, 0.0348, 0.0652, 0.0531, 0.0804, 0.0917, 0.0642, 0.0922, 0.0932, 0.0837, 0.0699, 0.0823, 0.0802, 0.0849, 0.12, 0.1068, 0.1362, 0.1495, 0.1492, 0.1727, 0.1712, 0.1797, 0.196, 0.1934, 0.2014, 0.1919, 0.1964, 0.2095, 0.2205, 0.2358, 0.2358, 0.2339, 0.2439, 0.2506, 0.2488, 0.2258, 0.2614, 0.2416, 0.2455, 0.2299, 0.2067, 0.1627, 0.1668, 0.183, 0.165, 0.1862, 0.1975, 0.1843, 0.1926, 0.1926, 0.1886, 0.1777, 0.1728, 0.1011, 0.1356, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2032454640709644663", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-13T13:52:02+00:00", "symbol": "AMZN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long AAPL on disciplined capital allocation vs AI capex arms race; bearish on AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT/META given catastrophic risk of $700B+ infrastructure spending failing to generate returns.", "resolved_tickers": ["AMZN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Retail'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Retail", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Apple is going to win the AI race because they're REFUSING to participate.\n\nEveryone's laughing at them for \"falling behind\".\n\nBut there's a concept in investing most people misunderstand:\n\nThe assumption is that whoever spends the most wins. \n\nBigger capex = bigger moat = bigger returns\n\nHistorically, the OPPOSITE is true.\n\nCompanies that outspend their peers on capital expenditure consistently deliver worse forward returns than companies that exercise discipline. \n\nThe data is unambiguous.\n\nAnd right now we're watching the most aggressive capex arms race in the history of corporate America.\n\nAmazon announced $200 billion in 2026 capex. The stock dropped 11% the day after. Alphabet committed $175-185 billion. Microsoft $145 billion. Meta $115-135 billion.\n\nThese companies are now consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on infrastructure spending. They're borrowing over $400 billion collectively to cover the gap.\n\nMeanwhile Apple:\n\n- Sits on $130 billion in cash\n- Returns $100+ billion a year to shareholders through buybacks and dividends\n- Outsources its AI compute to partners instead of building its own infrastructure from scratch\n\nWall Street calls this \"falling behind.\"\n\nI call it DISCIPLINE.\n\nAnd there's a perfect parallel from the auto industry:\n\nToyota refused to go all in on EVs when every other manufacturer was racing to electrify. \n\nThe media hammered them. Analysts downgraded them. The narrative was that Toyota was a dinosaur.\n\nInstead, Toyota doubled down on hybrids, let competitors burn through capital on first-generation EV infrastructure, and watched the early adopters make expensive mistakes (eange anxiety, charging network gaps, margin compression).\n\nThe result? Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024. Fifth consecutive year as the world's top-selling automaker. \n\nHybrids now account for nearly half their US sales. \n\nTheir stock has outperformed every major traditional automaker over the past four years.\n\nThe late mover won. The disciplined capital allocator won.\n\nNot because Toyota ignored the future but because they let EVERYONE ELSE pay for the learning curve.\n\nThat's EXACTLY what Apple is doing with AI.\n\nThey're watching Microsoft, Amazon, and Google pour hundreds of billions into data centers and GPU clusters. They're observing which approaches work and which don't.\n\nThey're keeping their powder dry.\n\nWhen the technology matures and the economics clarify, Apple will move. \n\nWith $130 billion in cash, they can acquire or build whatever they need - on THEIR timeline, at THEIR price, after everyone else has made the expensive mistakes.\n\nThis is not falling behind. This is capital allocation at the highest level.\n\nThe companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history.\n\nApple's risk? Missing a cycle. That's manageable.\n\nEveryone else's risk? Spending $700 billion on infrastructure that generates insufficient returns. That's CATASTROPHIC.\n\nSometimes the smartest move in an arms race is refusing to participate.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to upcoming Best Stock Idea Summits.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.008956520569901594, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.008956520569901594, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0032641653137910343, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0030030933105813507, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0056923552561105595, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005953427259320243, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0195984367511175, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0195984367511175, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.009421571740660939, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007511173252020775, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01017686501045656, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012087263499096723, "ret_p1w": -0.011075278432307267, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.011075278432307267, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0069662478463695665, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.017068384327409758, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.018041526278676834, "bench_c_p1w": -0.028143662759717025, "ret_p1m": 0.15515000483840358, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.15515000483840358, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.11636979816220605, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12548340284535064, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.038780206676197526, "bench_c_p1m": 0.029666601993052932, "ret_p3m": 0.14604903018480497, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.14604903018480497, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.04772177159385671, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12026899454245776, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09832725859094826, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02578003564234721, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0717, 0.0655, 0.0919, 0.0948, 0.1, 0.1178, 0.119, 0.119, 0.1197, 0.1175, 0.1197, 0.1115, 0.1115, 0.0907, 0.1223, 0.1602, 0.1632, 0.186, 0.1912, 0.1868, 0.1682, 0.1395, 0.1469, 0.1514, 0.1514, 0.1123, 0.1138, 0.1284, 0.1516, 0.1481, 0.1782, 0.1702, 0.164, 0.1523, 0.1699, 0.149, 0.1219, 0.0723, 0.0128, 0.0051, -0.0034, -0.0173, -0.0389, -0.0428, -0.0428, -0.0314, -0.0139, -0.0135, 0.0117, -0.0116, 0.0043, 0.0143, 0.0012, 0.0112, 0.0035, 0.0051, 0.0441, 0.0543, 0.0267, 0.028, 0.0321, 0.024, 0.009, 0.0, 0.0196, 0.0363, 0.0106, 0.0052, -0.0111, 0.0119, -0.0021, 0.0195, -0.0006, -0.0401, -0.0324, 0.0029, 0.014, 0.0101, 0.0101, 0.0247, 0.0294, 0.0654, 0.1251, 0.1479, 0.1552, 0.1991, 0.1966, 0.2024, 0.2065, 0.1956, 0.2034, 0.2296, 0.2283, 0.2712, 0.2574, 0.2505, 0.2666, 0.2764, 0.2918, 0.31, 0.3172, 0.3242, 0.3058, 0.313, 0.2953, 0.28, 0.3008, 0.2868, 0.2719, 0.2754, 0.2488, 0.2761, 0.2927, 0.2824, 0.2824, 0.2775, 0.309, 0.3194, 0.3032, 0.2581, 0.2352, 0.2039, 0.2221, 0.1847, 0.1808, 0.1759, 0.146, 0.163, 0.1487, 0.1847, 0.1846, 0.1436, 0.1768, 0.1768, 0.121, 0.1273, 0.1281, 0.0931, 0.1205, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2032454640709644663", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-03-13T13:52:02+00:00", "symbol": "MSFT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long AAPL on disciplined capital allocation vs AI capex arms race; bearish on AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT/META given catastrophic risk of $700B+ infrastructure spending failing to generate returns.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSFT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Apple is going to win the AI race because they're REFUSING to participate.\n\nEveryone's laughing at them for \"falling behind\".\n\nBut there's a concept in investing most people misunderstand:\n\nThe assumption is that whoever spends the most wins. \n\nBigger capex = bigger moat = bigger returns\n\nHistorically, the OPPOSITE is true.\n\nCompanies that outspend their peers on capital expenditure consistently deliver worse forward returns than companies that exercise discipline. \n\nThe data is unambiguous.\n\nAnd right now we're watching the most aggressive capex arms race in the history of corporate America.\n\nAmazon announced $200 billion in 2026 capex. The stock dropped 11% the day after. Alphabet committed $175-185 billion. Microsoft $145 billion. Meta $115-135 billion.\n\nThese companies are now consuming roughly 90% of their operating cash flow on infrastructure spending. They're borrowing over $400 billion collectively to cover the gap.\n\nMeanwhile Apple:\n\n- Sits on $130 billion in cash\n- Returns $100+ billion a year to shareholders through buybacks and dividends\n- Outsources its AI compute to partners instead of building its own infrastructure from scratch\n\nWall Street calls this \"falling behind.\"\n\nI call it DISCIPLINE.\n\nAnd there's a perfect parallel from the auto industry:\n\nToyota refused to go all in on EVs when every other manufacturer was racing to electrify. \n\nThe media hammered them. Analysts downgraded them. The narrative was that Toyota was a dinosaur.\n\nInstead, Toyota doubled down on hybrids, let competitors burn through capital on first-generation EV infrastructure, and watched the early adopters make expensive mistakes (eange anxiety, charging network gaps, margin compression).\n\nThe result? Toyota sold 10.8 million vehicles in 2024. Fifth consecutive year as the world's top-selling automaker. \n\nHybrids now account for nearly half their US sales. \n\nTheir stock has outperformed every major traditional automaker over the past four years.\n\nThe late mover won. The disciplined capital allocator won.\n\nNot because Toyota ignored the future but because they let EVERYONE ELSE pay for the learning curve.\n\nThat's EXACTLY what Apple is doing with AI.\n\nThey're watching Microsoft, Amazon, and Google pour hundreds of billions into data centers and GPU clusters. They're observing which approaches work and which don't.\n\nThey're keeping their powder dry.\n\nWhen the technology matures and the economics clarify, Apple will move. \n\nWith $130 billion in cash, they can acquire or build whatever they need - on THEIR timeline, at THEIR price, after everyone else has made the expensive mistakes.\n\nThis is not falling behind. This is capital allocation at the highest level.\n\nThe companies spending the most right now are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns. If monetization doesn't arrive on schedule, those hundreds of billions become the most expensive sunk cost in corporate history.\n\nApple's risk? Missing a cycle. That's manageable.\n\nEveryone else's risk? Spending $700 billion on infrastructure that generates insufficient returns. That's CATASTROPHIC.\n\nSometimes the smartest move in an arms race is refusing to participate.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to upcoming Best Stock Idea Summits.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01595245477396845, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01595245477396845, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01026009951785789, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01026009951785789, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0056923552561105595, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0056923552561105595, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011123782896491852, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011123782896491852, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0009469178860352923, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0009469178860352923, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01017686501045656, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01017686501045656, "ret_p1w": -0.03458472153816061, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03458472153816061, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01654319525948378, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.01654319525948378, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.018041526278676834, "bench_c_p1w": -0.018041526278676834, "ret_p1m": -0.02826440440503908, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02826440440503908, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0670446110812366, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0670446110812366, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.038780206676197526, "bench_c_p1m": 0.038780206676197526, "ret_p3m": 0.006751681889561656, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.006751681889561656, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09157557670138661, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09157557670138661, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09832725859094826, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09832725859094826, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.2016, 0.2009, 0.2208, 0.2257, 0.2231, 0.228, 0.231, 0.231, 0.2302, 0.2286, 0.2296, 0.2199, 0.2199, 0.1929, 0.1927, 0.207, 0.2195, 0.206, 0.2089, 0.2036, 0.1872, 0.1587, 0.1519, 0.1599, 0.1599, 0.1465, 0.1202, 0.1379, 0.1753, 0.1862, 0.2122, 0.2148, 0.0934, 0.0853, 0.0679, 0.0372, 0.0447, -0.007, 0.0118, 0.0433, 0.0424, 0.02, 0.0136, 0.0123, 0.0123, 0.001, 0.0079, 0.0074, 0.0042, -0.028, -0.0166, 0.0128, 0.0156, -0.0071, 0.0076, 0.0212, 0.0244, 0.0383, 0.0339, 0.035, 0.0258, 0.0236, 0.016, 0.0, 0.0111, 0.0098, -0.0095, -0.0165, -0.0346, -0.0317, -0.0577, -0.062, -0.0748, -0.098, -0.0925, -0.0642, -0.0662, -0.0558, -0.0558, -0.0573, -0.0588, -0.0536, -0.0568, -0.0624, -0.0283, -0.0062, 0.0396, 0.0625, 0.0689, 0.0569, 0.0723, 0.0945, 0.0511, 0.0735, 0.074, 0.0852, 0.0731, 0.0309, 0.0478, 0.0457, 0.04, 0.0465, 0.0638, 0.0495, 0.0433, 0.0309, 0.0244, 0.0351, 0.0667, 0.0708, 0.0553, 0.0645, 0.0618, 0.0605, 0.0605, 0.0541, 0.0455, 0.0818, 0.1407, 0.1668, 0.1181, 0.0827, 0.0845, 0.0557, 0.0432, 0.0221, 0.0068, -0.011, -0.01, 0.0128, -0.0022, -0.04, -0.0388, -0.0388, -0.0693, -0.0526, -0.0741, -0.1061, -0.055, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2042356746509791671", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-09T21:39:28+00:00", "symbol": "Mag 7", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I've been bearish on the Mag 7 AI capex story for months. $380 billion spent in 2025 with CFO surveys showing 'no change' in productivity. The earnings have accrued to the picks-and-shovels guys, not the dreamers.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish Mag 7 AI capex plays on valuation disconnect, commoditizing models, and no productivity gains; OpenAI trial may be the catalyst that cracks the narrative.", "resolved_tickers": ["MAGS"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "MAGS ETF tracks the Magnificent 7 stocks", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Sam Altman has cultivated an image as the AI whisperer of our generation.\n\nBut his mask just got RIPPED OFF.\n\nWhat's underneath should terrify anyone who believes in OpenAI at an $852 billion valuation...\n\nMultiple OpenAI engineers revealed that Altman can barely code and routinely confuses basic machine learning concepts.\n\nThis isn't a hit piece from a rival. These are his OWN people.\n\nA senior Microsoft executive (OpenAI's largest partner) went on record saying:\n\n\"I think there's a small but real chance he's eventually remembered as a Bernie Madoff- or Sam Bankman-Fried-level scammer.\"\n\nThat's from the company with a 27% stake.\n\nFormer OpenAI researcher Carroll Wainwright described the pattern:\n\n\"He sets up structures that, on paper, constrain him in the future. But then, when the future comes and it comes time to be constrained, he does away with whatever the structure was.\"\n\nInsiders call it \"Jedi mind tricks.\"\n\nI call it something older: the con.\n\nNow look at what's actually happening at OpenAI right now.\n\nJury trial begins April 27 in Oakland. Musk vs Altman.\n\nMusk is seeking up to $134 billion in damages and wants Altman and Brockman removed from their positions.\n\nThe key piece of evidence? Brockman's own 2017 handwritten diary, surfaced in discovery:\n\n\"I cannot believe that we committed to non-profit if three months later we're doing b-corp then it was a lie.\"\n\nA co-founder. In writing. In 2017. Using the word \"lie.\"\n\nThe judge cited that entry directly when she ruled there was \"ample evidence\" for a jury.\n\nNow the financial reality nobody wants to talk about:\n\nOpenAI just raised $122 billion at an $852 billion valuation.\n\n2025 revenue: ~$13 billion\n2026 projected loss: $14 billion\nCumulative losses through 2028: $44 billion\nCash burn projected to hit $57 billion annually by 2027\nPath to profitability: 2030, maybe\n\nThat's 65 times sales for a company losing more money than it earns. Traditional SaaS trades at 5-10x ARR.\n\nTo justify this valuation, OpenAI needs to hit $100 billion in annual revenue by 2029.\n\nNvidia did $130 billion in 2025 with a near-total monopoly on the largest hardware boom in human history.\n\nOpenAI is supposed to match that in four years. Selling subscriptions.\n\nAnd that's the BULL case.\n\nThe bear case? DeepSeek launched a 1 trillion parameter model priced at one-sixth the cost of US rivals. Chinese AI has erupted into a full price war. ChatGPT's web share collapsed from 86.7% to 64.5% in 12 months.\n\nModels are commoditizing. Moats are evaporating. Compute costs are structural, not temporary.\n\nAnd the man steering this $852 billion ship allegedly can't explain gradient descent to his own engineers.\n\nI've seen guys like this many times. I watched it in 1999. I watched it in 2007.\n\nThe pattern is always the same:\n\nA charismatic frontman. A \"new paradigm\" story. Valuations disconnected from cash flow. Insiders quietly cashing out while retail investors chase the narrative. Board structures designed to be \"unwound\" the moment constraints become inconvenient.\n\nWhen Microsoft executives are whispering \"Madoff\" and co-founders are writing \"it was a lie\" in their diaries, you don't even need 45 years on Wall Street to know how this ends.\n\nYou just need to have been paying attention.\n\nI've been bearish on the Mag 7 AI capex story for months. $380 billion spent in 2025 with CFO surveys showing \"no change\" in productivity. The earnings have accrued to the picks-and-shovels guys, not the dreamers.\n\nOpenAI is the purest expression of this mania. And the jury selection on April 27 may be the moment the story finally cracks.\n\nCaveat emptor.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE ACCESS to upcoming events worth thousands. \n\nJoin 10,000+ investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.006869450002258581, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.006869450002258581, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.007531663665546473, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.007531663665546473, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0006622136632878917, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0006622136632878917, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010140643409782824, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.010140643409782824, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0003681961633010822, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0003681961633010822, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.009772447246481741, "bench_c_p1d": 0.009772447246481741, "ret_p1w": 0.08684981373246115, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08684981373246115, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.041696262207546075, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.041696262207546075, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.04515355152491507, "bench_c_p1w": 0.04515355152491507, "ret_p1m": 0.13575405846606992, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13575405846606992, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04768414426565304, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04768414426565304, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.08806991420041688, "bench_c_p1m": 0.08806991420041688, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13575405846606992, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04768414426565304, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04768414426565304, "price_path": [0.0793, 0.0628, 0.0646, 0.0615, 0.0615, 0.0294, 0.0409, 0.062, 0.0733, 0.0782, 0.0885, 0.0883, 0.0857, 0.0819, 0.082, 0.0644, 0.0482, 0.0275, 0.0322, 0.0442, 0.0399, 0.0335, 0.0096, 0.0002, 0.0002, 0.0021, 0.009, 0.0074, 0.0239, 0.0075, 0.0191, 0.0348, 0.0185, 0.0034, 0.0077, 0.0025, 0.0178, 0.0167, -0.0025, 0.0095, 0.0129, 0.0165, -0.0031, -0.0196, -0.0043, -0.0002, -0.0154, -0.026, -0.0453, -0.0304, -0.043, -0.0358, -0.0672, -0.0931, -0.094, -0.0523, -0.0402, -0.0469, -0.0469, -0.0451, -0.0466, -0.0216, -0.0069, 0.0, 0.0101, 0.0404, 0.0674, 0.0682, 0.0868, 0.0756, 0.0682, 0.0867, 0.0685, 0.0888, 0.0972, 0.0936, 0.089, 0.0834, 0.0937, 0.0954, 0.0976, 0.1197, 0.1268, 0.1387, 0.1358, 0.1305, 0.1536, 0.1603, 0.1423, 0.1361, 0.1209, 0.1366, 0.1367, 0.1344, 0.1344, 0.1389, 0.1503, 0.1591, 0.1565, 0.1426, 0.1313, 0.1191, 0.1305, 0.0878, 0.0882, 0.0739, 0.0504, 0.0617, 0.0617, 0.0896, 0.0864, 0.0556, 0.0703, 0.0703, 0.0471, 0.0327, 0.0252, -0.0011, 0.0075, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2047251809190719716", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-23T09:50:42+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am most recently short with an average cost of $475", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Holds an active short position in TSLA at avg cost $475.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@vcdxnz001 Tesla stock is flat over four years and has massively underperformed the market.\nI have had a spotty record shorting $TSLA.  I am most recently short with an average cost of $475.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Do you ever get sick of being wrong all the time? How much have you lost shorting Tesla?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "vcdxnz001", "ret_m1d": 0.03689930562955901, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03689930562955901, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03300344593924298, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.026792256588431984, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003895859690316028, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010107049041127025, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0069035282132037246, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0069035282132037246, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0008457810240278807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0011651778525969547, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007749309237231605, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00806870606580068, "ret_p1w": 0.021165588237912036, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.021165588237912036, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0067539132350464826, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.015984675397364256, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014411675002865554, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00518091284054778, "ret_p1m": 0.13991760776550355, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1276872252746062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.052494860901207696, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012230382490897362, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1276872252746062, "price_path": [0.1645, 0.153, 0.1545, 0.1146, 0.1517, 0.1287, 0.1291, 0.0864, 0.0629, 0.1, 0.1167, 0.1378, 0.146, 0.116, 0.117, 0.117, 0.0988, 0.1006, 0.1017, 0.1019, 0.0699, 0.0954, 0.1169, 0.0933, 0.077, 0.0792, 0.0501, 0.0862, 0.0852, 0.0616, 0.0668, 0.0683, 0.0912, 0.057, 0.0468, 0.0584, 0.0684, 0.051, 0.0176, -0.0154, 0.0191, 0.0249, 0.0327, -0.0043, -0.0318, -0.0493, -0.0053, 0.0202, -0.0351, -0.0351, -0.0559, -0.0724, -0.0815, -0.0752, -0.0663, -0.057, -0.0255, 0.0488, 0.0406, 0.072, 0.0503, 0.034, 0.0369, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0132, 0.0062, -0.0025, 0.0212, 0.0458, 0.0503, 0.0419, 0.0669, 0.1019, 0.1462, 0.1907, 0.1598, 0.1915, 0.1862, 0.1298, 0.0971, 0.0813, 0.1165, 0.1181, 0.1399, 0.1399, 0.1602, 0.1783, 0.183, 0.1661, 0.1128, 0.1338, 0.1337, 0.1197, 0.0462, 0.0943, 0.0614, 0.0211, 0.068, 0.0875, 0.1002, 0.0828, 0.0606, 0.0716, 0.0716, 0.0838, 0.0211, 0.0048, 0.0037, 0.016, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2046930872285225331", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-22T12:35:24+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "A Day of Reckoning Is Coming For Tesla. Excellent read.", "tweet_type": "news_reaction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bearish article predicting a reckoning for Tesla.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "A Day of Reckoning Is Coming For Tesla https://t.co/6uarw9IloM \n\nExcellent read. $TSLA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.002812821115381947, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.002812821115381947, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.007212368768088284, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.003149188547661108, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.010025189883470231, "bench_c_m1d": 0.000336367432279161, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03558619957523779, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03558619957523779, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.031705458706839384, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.025580280845414638, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0038807408683984024, "bench_c_p1d": -0.010005918729823149, "ret_p1w": -0.037960366447187255, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.037960366447187255, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03848056330977889, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.020386983967656036, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0005201968625916376, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01757338247953122, "ret_p1m": 0.07829474226031197, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07829474226031197, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.03399007622523498, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08022867823107105, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04430466603507699, "bench_c_p1m": -0.001933935970759082, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07829474226031197, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.03399007622523498, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08022867823107105, "price_path": [0.1588, 0.1231, 0.112, 0.1134, 0.075, 0.1107, 0.0885, 0.0889, 0.0477, 0.025, 0.0609, 0.0769, 0.0973, 0.1052, 0.0763, 0.0772, 0.0772, 0.0597, 0.0614, 0.0624, 0.0627, 0.0318, 0.0564, 0.0771, 0.0544, 0.0387, 0.0408, 0.0127, 0.0476, 0.0466, 0.0238, 0.0288, 0.0303, 0.0524, 0.0194, 0.0095, 0.0208, 0.0303, 0.0136, -0.0186, -0.0505, -0.0172, -0.0116, -0.004, -0.0397, -0.0663, -0.0832, -0.0407, -0.0161, -0.0695, -0.0695, -0.0895, -0.1054, -0.1142, -0.1081, -0.0995, -0.0906, -0.0602, 0.0115, 0.0036, 0.0338, 0.0129, -0.0028, 0.0, -0.0356, -0.0289, -0.0228, -0.0297, -0.038, -0.0152, 0.0085, 0.0129, 0.0048, 0.029, 0.0627, 0.1054, 0.1484, 0.1186, 0.1491, 0.144, 0.0896, 0.058, 0.0428, 0.0768, 0.0783, 0.0994, 0.0994, 0.1189, 0.1364, 0.1409, 0.1246, 0.0732, 0.0935, 0.0934, 0.0798, 0.009, 0.0553, 0.0237, -0.0153, 0.03, 0.0488, 0.061, 0.0443, 0.0229, 0.0335, 0.0335, 0.0453, -0.0152, -0.0309, -0.032, -0.0201, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2046331709998703045", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-20T20:54:33+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The valuation of $TSLA is indefensible. A market cap of $1.5T for a company that has generated cumulative profits of $38b? Hopium is the only thing that is sustaining the share price.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA: $1.5T market cap versus $38B cumulative profits is indefensible; valuation sustained only by hopium.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@TeslaBoomerMama @elonmusk Responding in kind my dear….\n\nThe valuation of $TSLA is indefensible.\nA market cap of $1.5T for a company  that has generated cumulative profits of $38b? Hopium is the only thing that is sustaining the share price.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @elonmusk Other than insults, do you have anything else?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "TeslaBoomerMama", "ret_m1d": 0.015734139953914816, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.015734139953914816, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.009144102838512858, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008169220796639065, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007564919157275751, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0028207553957204645, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0028207553957204645, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.007305956699398486, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.00315700972299493, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0003362543272744656, "ret_p1w": -0.02691378306679615, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02691378306679615, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03772213922516732, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.010439055956170562, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "bench_c_p1w": -0.016474727110625587, "ret_p1m": 0.07980952141770503, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07980952141770503, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02701726207138977, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08846718681798293, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "bench_c_p1m": -0.008657665400277903, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07980952141770503, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02701726207138977, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08846718681798293, "price_path": [0.1629, 0.1621, 0.1262, 0.1151, 0.1166, 0.078, 0.1138, 0.0916, 0.092, 0.0507, 0.0279, 0.0639, 0.08, 0.1004, 0.1083, 0.0793, 0.0803, 0.0803, 0.0627, 0.0644, 0.0654, 0.0657, 0.0347, 0.0594, 0.0802, 0.0573, 0.0416, 0.0437, 0.0156, 0.0505, 0.0495, 0.0267, 0.0317, 0.0332, 0.0554, 0.0222, 0.0124, 0.0237, 0.0333, 0.0165, -0.0158, -0.0478, -0.0144, -0.0088, -0.0012, -0.037, -0.0636, -0.0806, -0.038, -0.0134, -0.0668, -0.0668, -0.087, -0.1029, -0.1117, -0.1056, -0.097, -0.088, -0.0575, 0.0143, 0.0064, 0.0367, 0.0157, 0.0, 0.0028, -0.0329, -0.0262, -0.0201, -0.0269, -0.0352, -0.0124, 0.0114, 0.0158, 0.0076, 0.0319, 0.0657, 0.1085, 0.1516, 0.1217, 0.1523, 0.1472, 0.0927, 0.061, 0.0458, 0.0798, 0.0813, 0.1025, 0.1025, 0.1221, 0.1396, 0.1441, 0.1278, 0.0762, 0.0966, 0.0965, 0.0829, 0.0119, 0.0583, 0.0266, -0.0125, 0.0329, 0.0518, 0.064, 0.0472, 0.0258, 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.0482, -0.0124, -0.0282, -0.0292, -0.0174, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2010698735597031658", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-12T13:01:50+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish gold; believes the SPX/gold regime shift is already underway and gold allocation should be maximized.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@benjamincowen The train has already left the station.\nYou can’t own enough gold. https://t.co/iKRZyb1mpx", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "This is one of the most important charts right now.\n\nIf SPX breaks down against Gold, the environment we have found ourselves in for the last decade will completely change. https://t.co/9sNFn8BBig", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "benjamincowen", "ret_m1d": -0.01837863146557872, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01837863146557872, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.016810660857701443, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.016810660857701443, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0015679706078772782, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015679706078772782, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0014210408732292512, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0014210408732292512, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.000578465892152602, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.000578465892152602, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0019995067653818532, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0019995067653818532, "ret_p1w": -0.002226280503392908, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.002226280503392908, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0028085433788366254, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0028085433788366254, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.005034823882229533, "bench_c_p1w": -0.005034823882229533, "ret_p1m": 0.09513767819658114, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.09513767819658114, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09951076622836852, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09951076622836852, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0043730880317873755, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0043730880317873755, "ret_p3m": 0.037136139705353566, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.037136139705353566, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.05640247704287871, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05640247704287871, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.01926633733752514, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01926633733752514, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.09513767819658114, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09951076622836852, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09951076622836852, "price_path": [-0.0825, -0.0611, -0.0787, -0.0452, -0.1066, -0.1065, -0.1029, -0.1059, -0.1308, -0.137, -0.1403, -0.1234, -0.1282, -0.1266, -0.1419, -0.132, -0.133, -0.1277, -0.1039, -0.1003, -0.0858, -0.0932, -0.1096, -0.1198, -0.1134, -0.112, -0.1122, -0.1136, -0.0995, -0.0998, -0.0926, -0.0926, -0.0814, -0.0769, -0.0829, -0.0837, -0.0831, -0.0848, -0.0872, -0.0825, -0.0786, -0.0687, -0.0634, -0.0626, -0.0624, -0.0543, -0.056, -0.055, -0.0332, -0.0203, -0.0244, -0.0244, -0.013, -0.056, -0.0553, -0.0614, -0.0614, -0.0567, -0.0319, -0.0214, -0.0308, -0.0254, -0.0184, 0.0, -0.0014, 0.0088, 0.0026, -0.0022, -0.0022, 0.0355, 0.0506, 0.07, 0.0847, 0.1006, 0.1276, 0.1713, 0.1745, 0.0538, 0.0116, 0.0759, 0.0752, 0.0465, 0.0787, 0.1061, 0.0951, 0.1075, 0.0691, 0.0957, 0.0957, 0.0615, 0.0854, 0.0884, 0.1099, 0.1399, 0.1241, 0.1212, 0.1309, 0.1457, 0.1605, 0.1087, 0.1174, 0.104, 0.1215, 0.1191, 0.1318, 0.1279, 0.1057, 0.0914, 0.0905, 0.0877, 0.0533, 0.0099, -0.021, -0.0431, -0.0429, -0.0141, -0.0511, -0.0178, -0.0181, 0.0191, 0.0369, 0.017, 0.017, 0.0128, 0.0227, 0.0291, 0.0371, 0.0353, 0.0311, 0.0541, 0.0432, 0.0423, 0.0561, 0.047, 0.0174, 0.0309, 0.0209, 0.0261, 0.0181, -0.0008, -0.0114, 0.0034, 0.0022, -0.0178, -0.0094, 0.0207, 0.0224, 0.0273, 0.0294, 0.0253, 0.0196, 0.0118, -0.0117, -0.009, -0.0254, -0.0114, -0.0124, -0.0199, -0.0199, -0.0195, -0.0325, -0.0224, -0.0121, -0.026, -0.0243, -0.034, -0.026, -0.0616, -0.0591, -0.0745, -0.1129, -0.085, -0.0845, -0.0608, -0.0583, -0.0796, -0.0832, -0.0832, -0.0891, -0.1064, -0.1334, -0.125, -0.1151, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2008632177303437674", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-06T20:10:04+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Stay short.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Reaffirms short BETR: dilution, cash shortfall masked by financials, CEO history of near-default, structural weakness post-SPAC.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "There is less to $BETR than meets the eye - not terribly surprising for what was once SPAC. This article reads HORRIBLY. Stay short. \n\n“ I was able to find another instance where Mr. Garg invested $5mm of his own money into the company. This was when the company was still private, but certain emails were made public in an article a few years ago. In this past case there were warehouse considerations and investor pressure so severe that the company was nearing a potential event of default (Mr. Garg’s words, not mine). \n\nBETR is now public, and raised over $1B in equity capital since the $5mm investment documented in the above email, but is still in a position where it is in need of cash to support its business plan while managing warehouse constraints.”", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$BETR Dilution continues, and there is far less cash available for the core mortgage business than you see on the financials. Their at-the-money appears to be a lifeline.\n\nRead more at:\nhttps://t.co/iJS6fC2qxJ\n\n@gnoble79 \n@StockJabber", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03655050721203268, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03655050721203268, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0424625059192264, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0424625059192264, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005911998707193722, "bench_c_m1d": -0.005911998707193722, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03540838555848447, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03540838555848447, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03218497327728631, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03218497327728631, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.003223412281198157, "bench_c_p1d": -0.003223412281198157, "ret_p1w": 0.10908051527387563, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.10908051527387563, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.10624735734804913, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.10624735734804913, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0028331579258265016, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0028331579258265016, "ret_p1m": -0.21387777479191006, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.21387777479191006, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20575418691399083, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.20575418691399083, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.008123587877919225, "bench_c_p1m": -0.008123587877919225, "ret_p3m": 0.0739577418256061, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0739577418256061, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.12337724734140798, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12337724734140798, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.049419505515801876, "bench_c_p3m": -0.049419505515801876, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.21387777479191006, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20575418691399083, "alpha_c_stated": 0.20575418691399083, "price_path": [0.703, 0.6245, 0.4509, 0.4255, 0.7096, 0.6451, 0.809, 1.3241, 1.1385, 0.8826, 1.4577, 1.2707, 1.2416, 1.1693, 1.2244, 1.0631, 1.0905, 1.0828, 0.8529, 0.7481, 0.7299, 0.6374, 0.8866, 0.8118, 0.6893, 0.6393, 0.6062, 0.5029, 0.5583, 0.3875, 0.2636, 0.2864, 0.305, 0.2993, 0.3461, 0.3461, 0.3826, 0.2884, 0.2484, 0.2673, 0.4263, 0.2975, 0.3321, 0.3589, 0.4457, 0.3866, 0.1927, 0.1314, 0.1102, -0.0014, 0.0077, -0.0585, 0.044, 0.0257, 0.0565, 0.0565, -0.0026, -0.0257, -0.0585, -0.0697, -0.0697, -0.008, 0.0366, 0.0, -0.0354, 0.0691, 0.1385, 0.0942, 0.1091, 0.0774, 0.0474, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0899, -0.0674, -0.0828, -0.1051, -0.1885, -0.1251, -0.0897, -0.0997, -0.1345, -0.2327, -0.205, -0.2139, -0.2784, -0.2381, -0.203, -0.1839, -0.1688, -0.1668, -0.1045, -0.1045, -0.1079, -0.0891, -0.0959, -0.1785, -0.227, -0.1887, -0.1168, -0.0508, -0.0605, -0.0006, -0.0603, -0.1028, -0.0463, -0.0917, 0.0191, 0.0914, 0.1402, 0.0468, -0.0163, -0.1805, -0.1085, -0.187, -0.1722, -0.2202, -0.1722, -0.1836, -0.1028, -0.0543, -0.1245, -0.0465, 0.0171, -0.0106, 0.074, 0.074, 0.1525, 0.2804, -0.0004, -0.0794, -0.0648, 0.0017, -0.0077, 0.0922, 0.066, 0.1773, 0.3558, 0.3292, 0.3104, 0.1739, 0.2147, 0.1611, 0.2045, 0.1171, 0.1745, 0.2673, 0.187, 0.2116, 0.219, -0.1285, -0.1413, -0.1134, -0.1325, -0.1719, -0.169, -0.229, -0.2847, -0.2787, -0.305, -0.2853, -0.2687, -0.2687, -0.2441, -0.2316, -0.1922, -0.167, -0.1716, -0.1907, -0.2459, -0.2116, -0.2684, -0.2733, -0.285, -0.3224, -0.3118, -0.243, -0.1768, -0.1648, -0.2239, -0.1882, -0.1882, -0.2467, -0.2664, -0.2521, -0.2696, -0.267, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2041275911711141969", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-06T22:04:37+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Own gold.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Own gold and energy; Gulf SWF forced selling poses structural downside risk to European blue-chip holdings like Volkswagen; Brent seen at $150-200 if Hormuz blockade persists.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$5 trillion in sovereign wealth is being rethought right now.\n\nAnd most investors have no idea what that means for their portfolios.\n\nGulf sovereign wealth funds (Saudi Arabia's PIF, Abu Dhabi's ADIA, Qatar's QIA) collectively control roughly $5 trillion in global assets.\n\nThey own stakes in Volkswagen, Barclays, Glencore, Harrods, the Shard, Heathrow Airport, and Canary Wharf. They're anchored across European blue chips, US Treasuries, Silicon Valley tech, and Manhattan real estate.\n\nThese funds were built for a rainy day.\n\nAnd it's POURING.\n\nOne month into the Iran war, the damage is adding up FAST. Saudi Arabia was forced to cut oil production from 10.4 million barrels per day in February to 8 million in March. At Brent above $110, that's over $8 billion in lost crude revenue in a single month. \n\nAdd the shutdown of LPG terminals and surging insurance costs, and Saudi's total first month losses climb to roughly $10 billion.\n\nThe UAE got hit differently. Not just oil disruption - Iran's drones struck data centers, ports, and aviation infrastructure. Dubai and Abu Dhabi built their global brand on logistics, tourism, and trade. All three are now under severe strain.\n\nQatar may have it worst though.\n\nIts core LNG export infrastructure took direct hits. The $580 billion QIA owns trophy assets across Europe - 17% of Volkswagen, stakes in Barclays, Glencore, the London Stock Exchange, plus Harrods, Heathrow, and the Shard. If the conflict drags on, some of those crown jewels may need to become cash.\n\n3 of the 4 largest GCC economies have already BEGUN internal reviews of their investment strategies.\n\nThey're reviewing existing contracts. Evaluating force majeure clauses. Reconsidering hundreds of billions in US investment pledges made to Trump just last year.\n\nHere's what I want you to understand:\n\nThese funds don't just own stocks and buildings. They ARE the market in many corners of it. \n\nWhen the third largest shareholder in Volkswagen starts thinking about liquidity, that's a structural event - not just a portfolio adjustment.\n\nAnd the math is getting worse by the day.\n\nSaudi Arabia's 2026 budget was ALREADY built on a $44 billion deficit. Public debt was projected to hit $430 billion. Oil still accounts for 54% of state revenues. \n\nEvery month this war continues forces Riyadh to choose between slowing Vision 2030 megaprojects or borrowing more on international markets.\n\nThe good news (if you can call it that) is these funds hold significant liquid assets. ADIA reports 60-75% of its portfolio in public equities and debt. They can sell without fire-sale conditions.\n\nBut \"can sell\" and \"the market absorbs it smoothly\" are two very different things.\n\nThe IEA's Fatih Birol said last week that April will be MUCH worse than March for oil supply. The ships that were already in transit when the war started have now delivered. Nothing new is coming through Hormuz. The physical reality is catching up to paper prices.\n\nBrent is at $111 today. Goldman says $150-200 if the blockade persists through June. This is literally the worst energy disruption in history - bigger than '73, bigger than the Gulf War, bigger than the Russian gas cutoff.\n\nMeanwhile, gold sits at $4,675. Up over 25% since early 2025.\n\nThe sovereign wealth fund story is the SECOND ORDER effect nobody's pricing in. Oil disruption is the headline. The possibility of $5 trillion in institutional capital being redeployed, liquidated, or frozen is the aftershock.\n\nWhen governments face existential short-term risk, long-term investment horizons collapse overnight.\n\nThat's not theory. That's happening RIGHT NOW across the Gulf.\n\nOwn gold. Own energy. Stay out of the way of forced sellers.\n\n---\n\nJoin us on Substack if you want actionable value I'm not sharing on X:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.00963387528225279, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.00963387528225279, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.009194068232975638, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.009194068232975638, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0004398070492771522, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0004398070492771522, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.00629906958171822, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.00629906958171822, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0191705669304727, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0191705669304727, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.02546963651219092, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02546963651219092, "ret_p1w": 0.030754264269888365, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.030754264269888365, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.022702992295795976, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.022702992295795976, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.05345725656568434, "bench_c_p1w": 0.05345725656568434, "ret_p1m": -0.001968472495591733, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.001968472495591733, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1151477762043589, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1151477762043589, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.11317930370876716, "bench_c_p1m": 0.11317930370876716, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.001968472495591733, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1151477762043589, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1151477762043589, "price_path": [-0.0471, -0.0402, -0.0222, -0.0236, -0.0136, -0.0196, -0.0244, -0.0244, 0.0126, 0.0273, 0.0463, 0.0607, 0.0762, 0.1026, 0.1453, 0.1484, 0.0304, -0.0108, 0.0521, 0.0513, 0.0233, 0.0548, 0.0816, 0.0708, 0.083, 0.0453, 0.0714, 0.0714, 0.038, 0.0613, 0.0643, 0.0852, 0.1146, 0.0991, 0.0964, 0.1058, 0.1203, 0.1348, 0.0841, 0.0926, 0.0795, 0.0966, 0.0943, 0.1066, 0.1029, 0.0812, 0.0672, 0.0663, 0.0636, 0.0299, -0.0125, -0.0427, -0.0643, -0.0641, -0.0359, -0.0722, -0.0396, -0.0399, -0.0035, 0.0139, -0.0056, -0.0056, -0.0096, 0.0, 0.0063, 0.0141, 0.0123, 0.0082, 0.0308, 0.02, 0.0192, 0.0327, 0.0238, -0.0052, 0.008, -0.0018, 0.0033, -0.0044, -0.0229, -0.0333, -0.0189, -0.02, -0.0396, -0.0314, -0.002, -0.0003, 0.0045, 0.0066, 0.0026, -0.003, -0.0107, -0.0336, -0.031, -0.047, -0.0334, -0.0343, -0.0417, -0.0417, -0.0412, -0.054, -0.0441, -0.034, -0.0476, -0.046, -0.0554, -0.0476, -0.0824, -0.08, -0.095, -0.1325, -0.1053, -0.1048, -0.0817, -0.0792, -0.1001, -0.1035, -0.1035, -0.1094, -0.1262, -0.1526, -0.1444, -0.1347, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2041275911711141969", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-04-06T22:04:37+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Own energy.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Own gold and energy; Gulf SWF forced selling poses structural downside risk to European blue-chip holdings like Volkswagen; Brent seen at $150-200 if Hormuz blockade persists.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE default energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$5 trillion in sovereign wealth is being rethought right now.\n\nAnd most investors have no idea what that means for their portfolios.\n\nGulf sovereign wealth funds (Saudi Arabia's PIF, Abu Dhabi's ADIA, Qatar's QIA) collectively control roughly $5 trillion in global assets.\n\nThey own stakes in Volkswagen, Barclays, Glencore, Harrods, the Shard, Heathrow Airport, and Canary Wharf. They're anchored across European blue chips, US Treasuries, Silicon Valley tech, and Manhattan real estate.\n\nThese funds were built for a rainy day.\n\nAnd it's POURING.\n\nOne month into the Iran war, the damage is adding up FAST. Saudi Arabia was forced to cut oil production from 10.4 million barrels per day in February to 8 million in March. At Brent above $110, that's over $8 billion in lost crude revenue in a single month. \n\nAdd the shutdown of LPG terminals and surging insurance costs, and Saudi's total first month losses climb to roughly $10 billion.\n\nThe UAE got hit differently. Not just oil disruption - Iran's drones struck data centers, ports, and aviation infrastructure. Dubai and Abu Dhabi built their global brand on logistics, tourism, and trade. All three are now under severe strain.\n\nQatar may have it worst though.\n\nIts core LNG export infrastructure took direct hits. The $580 billion QIA owns trophy assets across Europe - 17% of Volkswagen, stakes in Barclays, Glencore, the London Stock Exchange, plus Harrods, Heathrow, and the Shard. If the conflict drags on, some of those crown jewels may need to become cash.\n\n3 of the 4 largest GCC economies have already BEGUN internal reviews of their investment strategies.\n\nThey're reviewing existing contracts. Evaluating force majeure clauses. Reconsidering hundreds of billions in US investment pledges made to Trump just last year.\n\nHere's what I want you to understand:\n\nThese funds don't just own stocks and buildings. They ARE the market in many corners of it. \n\nWhen the third largest shareholder in Volkswagen starts thinking about liquidity, that's a structural event - not just a portfolio adjustment.\n\nAnd the math is getting worse by the day.\n\nSaudi Arabia's 2026 budget was ALREADY built on a $44 billion deficit. Public debt was projected to hit $430 billion. Oil still accounts for 54% of state revenues. \n\nEvery month this war continues forces Riyadh to choose between slowing Vision 2030 megaprojects or borrowing more on international markets.\n\nThe good news (if you can call it that) is these funds hold significant liquid assets. ADIA reports 60-75% of its portfolio in public equities and debt. They can sell without fire-sale conditions.\n\nBut \"can sell\" and \"the market absorbs it smoothly\" are two very different things.\n\nThe IEA's Fatih Birol said last week that April will be MUCH worse than March for oil supply. The ships that were already in transit when the war started have now delivered. Nothing new is coming through Hormuz. The physical reality is catching up to paper prices.\n\nBrent is at $111 today. Goldman says $150-200 if the blockade persists through June. This is literally the worst energy disruption in history - bigger than '73, bigger than the Gulf War, bigger than the Russian gas cutoff.\n\nMeanwhile, gold sits at $4,675. Up over 25% since early 2025.\n\nThe sovereign wealth fund story is the SECOND ORDER effect nobody's pricing in. Oil disruption is the headline. The possibility of $5 trillion in institutional capital being redeployed, liquidated, or frozen is the aftershock.\n\nWhen governments face existential short-term risk, long-term investment horizons collapse overnight.\n\nThat's not theory. That's happening RIGHT NOW across the Gulf.\n\nOwn gold. Own energy. Stay out of the way of forced sellers.\n\n---\n\nJoin us on Substack if you want actionable value I'm not sharing on X:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.007978712533363908, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.007978712533363908, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.007538905484086755, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.007538905484086755, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0004398070492771522, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0004398070492771522, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03507317566656176, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.03507317566656176, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06054281217875268, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.06054281217875268, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.02546963651219092, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02546963651219092, "ret_p1w": -0.06998004300002858, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06998004300002858, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.12343729956571292, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.12343729956571292, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.05345725656568434, "bench_c_p1w": 0.05345725656568434, "ret_p1m": -0.05252660933329523, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.05252660933329523, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.1657059130420624, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1657059130420624, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.11317930370876716, "bench_c_p1m": 0.11317930370876716, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.05252660933329523, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.1657059130420624, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1657059130420624, "price_path": [-0.2313, -0.2293, -0.2347, -0.2238, -0.2063, -0.2137, -0.2124, -0.2124, -0.2139, -0.1949, -0.1923, -0.1877, -0.1872, -0.1797, -0.1735, -0.1659, -0.1569, -0.1735, -0.1467, -0.1275, -0.1378, -0.1206, -0.1142, -0.1152, -0.092, -0.1086, -0.1024, -0.1024, -0.1123, -0.0953, -0.0887, -0.0937, -0.0892, -0.0901, -0.0939, -0.0909, -0.0765, -0.058, -0.0666, -0.0721, -0.0673, -0.0658, -0.0699, -0.0818, -0.059, -0.0503, -0.0471, -0.0438, -0.0337, -0.0351, -0.0197, -0.0205, -0.0088, 0.0113, 0.0068, 0.0226, 0.0399, 0.0299, 0.0183, -0.0198, -0.0151, -0.0151, -0.008, 0.0, -0.0351, -0.047, -0.0535, -0.0507, -0.07, -0.0731, -0.0595, -0.0854, -0.0846, -0.0713, -0.0602, -0.0529, -0.0547, -0.0563, -0.0407, -0.0188, -0.0085, -0.0218, -0.0128, -0.0118, -0.0525, -0.07, -0.0741, -0.0497, -0.0431, -0.0421, -0.0347, -0.012, 0.007, 0.0188, -0.006, -0.0171, -0.0111, -0.0111, -0.0384, -0.0527, -0.0534, -0.0643, -0.0475, -0.0366, -0.0241, -0.0234, -0.0414, -0.0304, -0.046, -0.0317, -0.0505, -0.0434, -0.0766, -0.0798, -0.0913, -0.1062, -0.1062, -0.0949, -0.0882, -0.1031, -0.0944, -0.0986, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2041275911711141969", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-04-06T22:04:37+00:00", "symbol": "Brent Crude", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Goldman says $150-200 if the blockade persists through June.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Own gold and energy; Gulf SWF forced selling poses structural downside risk to European blue-chip holdings like Volkswagen; Brent seen at $150-200 if Hormuz blockade persists.", "resolved_tickers": ["BNO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "BNO is the primary Brent crude ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$5 trillion in sovereign wealth is being rethought right now.\n\nAnd most investors have no idea what that means for their portfolios.\n\nGulf sovereign wealth funds (Saudi Arabia's PIF, Abu Dhabi's ADIA, Qatar's QIA) collectively control roughly $5 trillion in global assets.\n\nThey own stakes in Volkswagen, Barclays, Glencore, Harrods, the Shard, Heathrow Airport, and Canary Wharf. They're anchored across European blue chips, US Treasuries, Silicon Valley tech, and Manhattan real estate.\n\nThese funds were built for a rainy day.\n\nAnd it's POURING.\n\nOne month into the Iran war, the damage is adding up FAST. Saudi Arabia was forced to cut oil production from 10.4 million barrels per day in February to 8 million in March. At Brent above $110, that's over $8 billion in lost crude revenue in a single month. \n\nAdd the shutdown of LPG terminals and surging insurance costs, and Saudi's total first month losses climb to roughly $10 billion.\n\nThe UAE got hit differently. Not just oil disruption - Iran's drones struck data centers, ports, and aviation infrastructure. Dubai and Abu Dhabi built their global brand on logistics, tourism, and trade. All three are now under severe strain.\n\nQatar may have it worst though.\n\nIts core LNG export infrastructure took direct hits. The $580 billion QIA owns trophy assets across Europe - 17% of Volkswagen, stakes in Barclays, Glencore, the London Stock Exchange, plus Harrods, Heathrow, and the Shard. If the conflict drags on, some of those crown jewels may need to become cash.\n\n3 of the 4 largest GCC economies have already BEGUN internal reviews of their investment strategies.\n\nThey're reviewing existing contracts. Evaluating force majeure clauses. Reconsidering hundreds of billions in US investment pledges made to Trump just last year.\n\nHere's what I want you to understand:\n\nThese funds don't just own stocks and buildings. They ARE the market in many corners of it. \n\nWhen the third largest shareholder in Volkswagen starts thinking about liquidity, that's a structural event - not just a portfolio adjustment.\n\nAnd the math is getting worse by the day.\n\nSaudi Arabia's 2026 budget was ALREADY built on a $44 billion deficit. Public debt was projected to hit $430 billion. Oil still accounts for 54% of state revenues. \n\nEvery month this war continues forces Riyadh to choose between slowing Vision 2030 megaprojects or borrowing more on international markets.\n\nThe good news (if you can call it that) is these funds hold significant liquid assets. ADIA reports 60-75% of its portfolio in public equities and debt. They can sell without fire-sale conditions.\n\nBut \"can sell\" and \"the market absorbs it smoothly\" are two very different things.\n\nThe IEA's Fatih Birol said last week that April will be MUCH worse than March for oil supply. The ships that were already in transit when the war started have now delivered. Nothing new is coming through Hormuz. The physical reality is catching up to paper prices.\n\nBrent is at $111 today. Goldman says $150-200 if the blockade persists through June. This is literally the worst energy disruption in history - bigger than '73, bigger than the Gulf War, bigger than the Russian gas cutoff.\n\nMeanwhile, gold sits at $4,675. Up over 25% since early 2025.\n\nThe sovereign wealth fund story is the SECOND ORDER effect nobody's pricing in. Oil disruption is the headline. The possibility of $5 trillion in institutional capital being redeployed, liquidated, or frozen is the aftershock.\n\nWhen governments face existential short-term risk, long-term investment horizons collapse overnight.\n\nThat's not theory. That's happening RIGHT NOW across the Gulf.\n\nOwn gold. Own energy. Stay out of the way of forced sellers.\n\n---\n\nJoin us on Substack if you want actionable value I'm not sharing on X:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0214872515199096, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0214872515199096, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.021927058569186753, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.021927058569186753, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0004398070492771522, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0004398070492771522, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.10276532049622145, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.10276532049622145, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.12823495700841236, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.12823495700841236, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.02546963651219092, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02546963651219092, "ret_p1w": -0.11229450831139987, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.11229450831139987, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1657517648770842, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.1657517648770842, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.05345725656568434, "bench_c_p1w": 0.05345725656568434, "ret_p1m": 0.0001868146757788569, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0001868146757788569, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.11299248903298831, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.11299248903298831, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.11317930370876716, "bench_c_p1m": 0.11317930370876716, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0001868146757788569, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.11299248903298831, "alpha_c_stated": -0.11299248903298831, "price_path": [-0.4531, -0.4522, -0.4443, -0.4312, -0.4383, -0.4473, -0.4425, -0.4425, -0.4436, -0.4318, -0.4421, -0.4266, -0.4288, -0.4129, -0.4058, -0.3873, -0.3843, -0.4155, -0.3999, -0.3963, -0.4053, -0.4017, -0.3924, -0.3911, -0.3853, -0.4043, -0.4041, -0.4041, -0.4062, -0.3784, -0.3645, -0.367, -0.3668, -0.3664, -0.3713, -0.3683, -0.3496, -0.3023, -0.2786, -0.2732, -0.2481, -0.1788, -0.2018, -0.1896, -0.1771, -0.0985, -0.0837, -0.1095, -0.077, -0.0254, -0.0445, -0.0112, -0.1054, -0.0714, -0.0888, -0.0555, -0.0153, 0.0088, -0.0282, -0.0596, 0.0112, 0.0112, 0.0215, 0.0, -0.1028, -0.0934, -0.1172, -0.0831, -0.1123, -0.1158, -0.083, -0.1504, -0.1134, -0.0645, -0.0559, -0.0153, -0.0174, 0.0007, 0.0284, 0.0988, 0.0936, 0.0701, 0.1235, 0.0871, 0.0002, 0.0028, -0.0077, 0.028, 0.063, 0.0435, 0.0503, 0.0779, 0.0772, 0.0988, 0.0396, 0.0381, 0.0277, 0.0277, -0.0078, -0.0445, -0.0409, -0.0547, -0.0192, -0.0118, 0.0078, -0.0194, -0.0433, -0.0305, -0.0572, -0.0385, -0.082, -0.1065, -0.1396, -0.1799, -0.1874, -0.1801, -0.1801, -0.1943, -0.2052, -0.2388, -0.2175, -0.2468, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2020417104319488206", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-08T08:39:09+00:00", "symbol": "CRWV", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Who says they don't ring a bell at the top! This is a tell. $CRWV", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish CRWV; Chance the Rapper sponsorship signals AI bubble top.", "resolved_tickers": ["CRWV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Who says they don’t ring a bell at the top!  This is a tell. $CRWV #AI https://t.co/J3JjozB0aB", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "As far as blatant signs that AI is a bubble, I’d say “chance the rapper sponsored by coreweave” is one of the biggest https://t.co/crsyR7mj3t", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.07066849780541595, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.07066849780541595, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.06586990857473407, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.06586990857473407, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.017357167985172173, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.017357167985172173, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.014720110214472726, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.014720110214472726, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "ret_p1w": -0.0077487343000911535, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0077487343000911535, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.009831768732118551, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.009831768732118551, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "bench_c_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "ret_p1m": -0.22595312056737027, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.22595312056737027, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20178713518189062, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.20178713518189062, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "ret_p3m": 0.3311291984627074, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.3311291984627074, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.27402421820438816, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.27402421820438816, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.22595312056737027, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20178713518189062, "alpha_c_stated": 0.20178713518189062, "price_path": [-0.1174, -0.1906, -0.2007, -0.2217, -0.2262, -0.226, -0.2849, -0.2597, -0.2396, -0.2635, -0.2325, -0.2325, -0.2446, -0.2038, -0.2145, -0.1801, -0.1141, -0.0877, -0.109, -0.0633, -0.0892, -0.0972, -0.188, -0.2525, -0.282, -0.3331, -0.3008, -0.1425, -0.1236, -0.1708, -0.1851, -0.1851, -0.2105, -0.226, -0.2365, -0.2602, -0.2602, -0.1805, -0.2059, -0.1948, -0.2026, -0.2035, -0.172, -0.0709, -0.0962, -0.0722, -0.0184, 0.0459, 0.0459, -0.0162, -0.0283, -0.0517, -0.0394, 0.0157, 0.1247, 0.0954, 0.0283, -0.0372, -0.0811, -0.0695, -0.1481, -0.2287, -0.0707, 0.0, -0.0174, -0.0169, -0.0113, -0.0077, -0.0077, -0.0598, -0.0138, 0.0036, -0.0779, -0.0615, 0.0259, 0.0126, 0.0087, -0.178, -0.1936, -0.2377, -0.1786, -0.227, -0.2459, -0.2312, -0.226, -0.1532, -0.1749, -0.162, -0.1129, -0.1516, -0.1443, -0.1666, -0.1583, -0.1532, -0.1423, -0.0952, -0.1688, -0.2271, -0.2856, -0.1996, -0.1896, -0.1503, -0.1503, -0.1638, -0.1193, -0.0815, -0.0495, 0.0538, 0.1393, 0.2109, 0.2263, 0.2353, 0.2073, 0.2132, 0.1898, 0.266, 0.2131, 0.1379, 0.1578, 0.0903, 0.1798, 0.153, 0.2296, 0.2959, 0.3213, 0.4256, 0.3311, 0.1794, 0.185, 0.1132, 0.15, 0.18, 0.1086, 0.0721, 0.0312, 0.0464, 0.1115, 0.0899, 0.0899, 0.094, 0.0773, 0.104, 0.1316, 0.2896, 0.2323, 0.1461, 0.1161, 0.0372, 0.0577, 0.0172, -0.0122, -0.0108, 0.0388, 0.1025, 0.2091, 0.1903, 0.2186, 0.2186, 0.1498, 0.0923, 0.0423, 0.0204, -0.0022, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2011097489982570857", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-13T15:26:20+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I believe they'll go much higher", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long gold and silver on Fed independence collapse eroding dollar trust; bearish USD as foreign capital flees to hard assets.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You might be watching the beginning of the end for the dollar's dominance.\n\nAnd if you're still holding dollar-denominated assets while this unfolds in real time...\n\nLet me tell you something:\n\nOn Friday, the Department of Justice served Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with grand jury subpoenas.\n\nNot a request. Not a friendly inquiry.\n\nA criminal investigation threatening indictment.\n\nThe official reason? Powell's testimony about a $2.5 billion building renovation.\n\nBut Powell himself called bullshit on that excuse.\n\nIn an unprecedented video statement, he said the quiet part out loud:\n\n\"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.\"\n\nTranslation: The executive branch is using criminal prosecution to control monetary policy.\n\nThe Federal Reserve has operated independently since 1913.\n\n111 years.\n\nThrough world wars. Through the Great Depression. Through 2008. Through COVID.\n\nNo president has ever used the DOJ to criminally threaten a sitting Fed Chair.\n\nUntil now.\n\nThe market reaction was instant:\n\nGold smashed through $4,600 for the first time in history.\n\nUp 2% in a single day. Up 6% in 2026 alone.\n\nHSBC says it could hit $5,000 in the first half of this year.\n\nWhy? Because the dollar's entire value proposition just got put on trial.\n\nThe dollar isn't valuable because of America's GDP or military.\n\nIt's valuable because of TRUST.\n\nTrust that the Fed operates independently. Trust that monetary policy won't be dictated by whoever holds power this week.\n\nThat trust is evaporating in real time.\n\nForeign central banks have already dumped $113 billion in dollar reserves since September.\n\nAnd they're not parking that money in other currencies.\n\nThey're buying gold.\n\nFor the first time since 1996, gold now makes up a larger share of central bank reserves than U.S. Treasuries.\n\nThe world's central banks trust a shiny metal more than American IOUs.\n\nThe playbook is textbook emerging market collapse:\n\n1. Politicize the central bank\n2. Erode institutional independence\n3. Watch foreign capital flee\n4. Currency devaluation\n5. Inflation spiral\n\nWe just witnessed steps 1 and 2 happen simultaneously.\n\nJ.P. Morgan is forecasting gold at $5,055 by Q4 2026. Goldman Sachs says $4,900.\n\nMeanwhile, Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to replace Powell in May.\n\nThe same Kevin Hassett who's currently White House economic advisor.\n\nThe president's own guy running the Fed.\n\nWhat happens to rate decisions then? What happens to the dollar's credibility?\n\nThe Nixon comparison is already being made.\n\nIn the 1970s, Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep rates low. It contributed to the worst inflation America had seen in decades.\n\nBut even Nixon didn't use criminal prosecution.\n\nThis is using the justice system as a weapon against monetary policy.\n\nIf you're still overweight dollar assets right now, you're betting that institutions will hold. That the dollar's 80-year reign as the world's reserve currency will survive what's happening.\n\nMaybe you're right.\n\nBut the smart money isn't making that bet.\n\nThey're buying gold. They're diversifying out of dollar assets. They're treating America like a jurisdiction with increasing political risk.\n\nBecause that's exactly what it's become.\n\nThe DOJ just subpoenaed the Fed Chair for setting interest rates independently.\n\nThat's not \"checks and balances.\"\n\nThat's institutional vandalism with better lighting and worse consequences.\n\nGold at $4,600 and silver at $85 are the market’s answer.\n\nAnd I believe they’ll go much higher.\n\nWhat are you betting on?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0014230631040652586, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0014230631040652586, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0005804496987202867, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0005804496987202867, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0020035128027855453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0020035128027855453, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010222226854541994, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010222226854541994, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.015137479757680983, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.015137479757680983, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004915252903138989, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004915252903138989, "ret_p1w": 0.036999278805718516, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.036999278805718516, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06033556409150764, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06033556409150764, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.023336285285789127, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023336285285789127, "ret_p1m": 0.10910039481840283, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10910039481840283, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11170930404263668, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11170930404263668, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0026089092242338463, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0026089092242338463, "ret_p3m": 0.0367620895583749, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.0367620895583749, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.05471384021535608, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05471384021535608, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.01795175065698118, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01795175065698118, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10910039481840283, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11170930404263668, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11170930404263668, "price_path": [-0.0597, -0.0774, -0.0438, -0.1053, -0.1052, -0.1016, -0.1046, -0.1295, -0.1358, -0.1391, -0.1221, -0.1269, -0.1253, -0.1407, -0.1307, -0.1318, -0.1265, -0.1026, -0.099, -0.0845, -0.0919, -0.1083, -0.1185, -0.1121, -0.1107, -0.111, -0.1123, -0.0983, -0.0985, -0.0913, -0.0913, -0.08, -0.0756, -0.0816, -0.0824, -0.0818, -0.0835, -0.0859, -0.0812, -0.0773, -0.0673, -0.0621, -0.0613, -0.061, -0.053, -0.0547, -0.0536, -0.0318, -0.019, -0.023, -0.023, -0.0116, -0.0546, -0.0539, -0.0601, -0.0601, -0.0554, -0.0305, -0.02, -0.0294, -0.024, -0.017, 0.0014, 0.0, 0.0102, 0.004, -0.0008, -0.0008, 0.037, 0.0521, 0.0715, 0.0863, 0.1022, 0.1292, 0.173, 0.1761, 0.0553, 0.013, 0.0775, 0.0767, 0.048, 0.0802, 0.1077, 0.0967, 0.1091, 0.0706, 0.0972, 0.0972, 0.063, 0.0869, 0.09, 0.1114, 0.1415, 0.1257, 0.1228, 0.1325, 0.1473, 0.1622, 0.1103, 0.119, 0.1055, 0.123, 0.1207, 0.1334, 0.1295, 0.1073, 0.093, 0.092, 0.0893, 0.0548, 0.0113, -0.0196, -0.0417, -0.0415, -0.0127, -0.0498, -0.0164, -0.0167, 0.0205, 0.0384, 0.0185, 0.0185, 0.0143, 0.0241, 0.0306, 0.0386, 0.0368, 0.0326, 0.0556, 0.0447, 0.0438, 0.0576, 0.0485, 0.0188, 0.0323, 0.0223, 0.0276, 0.0196, 0.0007, -0.01, 0.0048, 0.0037, -0.0164, -0.008, 0.0221, 0.0238, 0.0288, 0.0309, 0.0268, 0.021, 0.0132, -0.0103, -0.0076, -0.024, -0.01, -0.011, -0.0185, -0.0185, -0.0181, -0.0312, -0.021, -0.0107, -0.0246, -0.023, -0.0326, -0.0246, -0.0602, -0.0578, -0.0732, -0.1116, -0.0837, -0.0832, -0.0595, -0.0569, -0.0783, -0.0818, -0.0818, -0.0878, -0.1051, -0.1321, -0.1237, -0.1138, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2011097489982570857", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-13T15:26:20+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold at $4,600 and silver at $85 are the market's answer. And I believe they'll go much higher", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long gold and silver on Fed independence collapse eroding dollar trust; bearish USD as foreign capital flees to hard assets.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You might be watching the beginning of the end for the dollar's dominance.\n\nAnd if you're still holding dollar-denominated assets while this unfolds in real time...\n\nLet me tell you something:\n\nOn Friday, the Department of Justice served Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell with grand jury subpoenas.\n\nNot a request. Not a friendly inquiry.\n\nA criminal investigation threatening indictment.\n\nThe official reason? Powell's testimony about a $2.5 billion building renovation.\n\nBut Powell himself called bullshit on that excuse.\n\nIn an unprecedented video statement, he said the quiet part out loud:\n\n\"The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.\"\n\nTranslation: The executive branch is using criminal prosecution to control monetary policy.\n\nThe Federal Reserve has operated independently since 1913.\n\n111 years.\n\nThrough world wars. Through the Great Depression. Through 2008. Through COVID.\n\nNo president has ever used the DOJ to criminally threaten a sitting Fed Chair.\n\nUntil now.\n\nThe market reaction was instant:\n\nGold smashed through $4,600 for the first time in history.\n\nUp 2% in a single day. Up 6% in 2026 alone.\n\nHSBC says it could hit $5,000 in the first half of this year.\n\nWhy? Because the dollar's entire value proposition just got put on trial.\n\nThe dollar isn't valuable because of America's GDP or military.\n\nIt's valuable because of TRUST.\n\nTrust that the Fed operates independently. Trust that monetary policy won't be dictated by whoever holds power this week.\n\nThat trust is evaporating in real time.\n\nForeign central banks have already dumped $113 billion in dollar reserves since September.\n\nAnd they're not parking that money in other currencies.\n\nThey're buying gold.\n\nFor the first time since 1996, gold now makes up a larger share of central bank reserves than U.S. Treasuries.\n\nThe world's central banks trust a shiny metal more than American IOUs.\n\nThe playbook is textbook emerging market collapse:\n\n1. Politicize the central bank\n2. Erode institutional independence\n3. Watch foreign capital flee\n4. Currency devaluation\n5. Inflation spiral\n\nWe just witnessed steps 1 and 2 happen simultaneously.\n\nJ.P. Morgan is forecasting gold at $5,055 by Q4 2026. Goldman Sachs says $4,900.\n\nMeanwhile, Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to replace Powell in May.\n\nThe same Kevin Hassett who's currently White House economic advisor.\n\nThe president's own guy running the Fed.\n\nWhat happens to rate decisions then? What happens to the dollar's credibility?\n\nThe Nixon comparison is already being made.\n\nIn the 1970s, Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep rates low. It contributed to the worst inflation America had seen in decades.\n\nBut even Nixon didn't use criminal prosecution.\n\nThis is using the justice system as a weapon against monetary policy.\n\nIf you're still overweight dollar assets right now, you're betting that institutions will hold. That the dollar's 80-year reign as the world's reserve currency will survive what's happening.\n\nMaybe you're right.\n\nBut the smart money isn't making that bet.\n\nThey're buying gold. They're diversifying out of dollar assets. They're treating America like a jurisdiction with increasing political risk.\n\nBecause that's exactly what it's become.\n\nThe DOJ just subpoenaed the Fed Chair for setting interest rates independently.\n\nThat's not \"checks and balances.\"\n\nThat's institutional vandalism with better lighting and worse consequences.\n\nGold at $4,600 and silver at $85 are the market’s answer.\n\nAnd I believe they’ll go much higher.\n\nWhat are you betting on?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.017429963661367842, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.017429963661367842, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.019433476464153387, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.019433476464153387, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0020035128027855453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0020035128027855453, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.07582696183429283, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07582696183429283, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.08074221473743182, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.08074221473743182, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004915252903138989, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004915252903138989, "ret_p1w": 0.08638678177281323, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08638678177281323, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.10972306705860235, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10972306705860235, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.023336285285789127, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023336285285789127, "ret_p1m": -0.025954210625067753, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.025954210625067753, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.023345301400833907, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.023345301400833907, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0026089092242338463, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0026089092242338463, "ret_p3m": -0.12111955251755946, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.12111955251755946, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.10316780186057828, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.10316780186057828, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.01795175065698118, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01795175065698118, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.025954210625067753, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.023345301400833907, "alpha_c_stated": -0.023345301400833907, "price_path": [-0.3744, -0.4022, -0.3929, -0.4429, -0.4417, -0.4379, -0.4403, -0.4606, -0.4567, -0.45, -0.4359, -0.4401, -0.4433, -0.4562, -0.4447, -0.4459, -0.4412, -0.4174, -0.409, -0.3852, -0.3967, -0.4153, -0.4215, -0.4135, -0.409, -0.4176, -0.4237, -0.4067, -0.4062, -0.3842, -0.3842, -0.3485, -0.3318, -0.324, -0.3248, -0.3415, -0.3263, -0.3294, -0.2981, -0.2866, -0.2669, -0.2863, -0.2607, -0.2655, -0.2333, -0.2453, -0.2248, -0.2052, -0.1751, -0.1702, -0.1702, -0.0952, -0.1602, -0.1224, -0.1804, -0.1804, -0.1635, -0.1211, -0.0622, -0.0972, -0.1131, -0.0791, -0.0174, 0.0, 0.0758, 0.0601, 0.0308, 0.0308, 0.0864, 0.0682, 0.1085, 0.1821, 0.2511, 0.2925, 0.3435, 0.3431, -0.0402, -0.0784, -0.0209, 0.0074, -0.1515, -0.107, -0.0326, -0.066, -0.026, -0.1383, -0.113, -0.113, -0.1556, -0.1083, -0.0966, -0.0252, 0.0251, 0.0061, 0.0183, 0.0235, 0.0813, 0.0378, -0.0499, -0.0415, -0.0551, -0.0338, -0.0043, 0.019, -0.0088, -0.027, -0.0752, -0.0684, -0.0883, -0.126, -0.1644, -0.2173, -0.2052, -0.1991, -0.1704, -0.2268, -0.1929, -0.1919, -0.1331, -0.1331, -0.163, -0.163, -0.1592, -0.1611, -0.1416, -0.1299, -0.1211, -0.1313, -0.0835, -0.086, -0.0936, -0.0632, -0.0821, -0.1286, -0.1047, -0.13, -0.1248, -0.1307, -0.1578, -0.1751, -0.1519, -0.1312, -0.1611, -0.1615, -0.1078, -0.0891, -0.0711, -0.0076, -0.0006, 0.0095, -0.0393, -0.1216, -0.1102, -0.1489, -0.1256, -0.1164, -0.1303, -0.1303, -0.113, -0.1412, -0.1303, -0.1307, -0.1391, -0.135, -0.1576, -0.1478, -0.2167, -0.2165, -0.2492, -0.2664, -0.2262, -0.2202, -0.1925, -0.1935, -0.2289, -0.2429, -0.2429, -0.2505, -0.291, -0.3412, -0.3338, -0.3221, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2015536672281161871", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-25T21:26:04+00:00", "symbol": "SLV", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Stack like your future depends on it—because it does. physical silver", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strong buy hard assets — silver, gold, and related ETFs — as dollar purchasing power collapses amid Fed money printing.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "\"This $1 American Silver Eagle—1 oz of real, .999 silver—is now worth $115 on the street (spot ripping through $103–$104/oz + premium rage).\n\nThat means your Federal Reserve toilet paper has ALREADY 99% of its purchasing power against silver.\n\nThe Fed criminals are still running the presses at warp speed—trillions more in fake debt and worthless digits being birthed every month while they laugh.\n\nWake the hell up.\n\nCash is dying. Savings accounts are a joke. Bonds are suicide.\n\nIf you're not stacking HARD ASSETS that can't be printed into oblivion—physical silver, gold,productive real estate, dividend-crushing stocks—you're volunteering to get poorer every single day.\n\nThe dollar is being murdered in broad daylight.\n\nStop being a victim. Stack like your future depends on it—because it does.\n\nWhat do you think?\n\n🦅🔥 NO EXCUSES     #GOLD #SILVER\n#PLATINUM   $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.055216523062743494, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.055216523062743494, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05016394944071734, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05016394944071734, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.033048608104816024, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.033048608104816024, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02906444272634512, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02906444272634512, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "ret_p1w": -0.2633719225237051, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.2633719225237051, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.26724058430827824, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.26724058430827824, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "ret_p1m": -0.19585108017148678, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.19585108017148678, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.18808461497473916, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.18808461497473916, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "ret_p3m": -0.30465731340411895, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.30465731340411895, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.330143128251858, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.330143128251858, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.19585108017148678, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.18808461497473916, "alpha_c_stated": -0.18808461497473916, "price_path": [-0.5604, -0.5491, -0.5525, -0.555, -0.5654, -0.5561, -0.5571, -0.5534, -0.5344, -0.5277, -0.5086, -0.5178, -0.5326, -0.5376, -0.5312, -0.5277, -0.5345, -0.5394, -0.5258, -0.5254, -0.5078, -0.5078, -0.4793, -0.4659, -0.4597, -0.4603, -0.4737, -0.4616, -0.464, -0.439, -0.4298, -0.4141, -0.4295, -0.4091, -0.413, -0.3872, -0.3968, -0.3804, -0.3648, -0.3407, -0.3368, -0.3368, -0.2768, -0.3288, -0.2986, -0.3449, -0.3449, -0.3314, -0.2975, -0.2505, -0.2784, -0.2911, -0.264, -0.2147, -0.2007, -0.1401, -0.1527, -0.1761, -0.1761, -0.1317, -0.1462, -0.114, -0.0552, 0.0, 0.033, 0.0738, 0.0735, -0.2329, -0.2634, -0.2174, -0.1948, -0.3218, -0.2863, -0.2268, -0.2535, -0.2215, -0.3113, -0.291, -0.291, -0.3251, -0.2873, -0.2779, -0.2209, -0.1807, -0.1959, -0.1861, -0.1819, -0.1358, -0.1705, -0.2406, -0.2339, -0.2448, -0.2278, -0.2042, -0.1856, -0.2077, -0.2223, -0.2608, -0.2554, -0.2713, -0.3014, -0.3321, -0.3744, -0.3648, -0.3599, -0.3369, -0.382, -0.3549, -0.3541, -0.3071, -0.3071, -0.331, -0.331, -0.3279, -0.3295, -0.3139, -0.3046, -0.2975, -0.3057, -0.2674, -0.2695, -0.2756, -0.2513, -0.2663, -0.3035, -0.2844, -0.3047, -0.3005, -0.3052, -0.3268, -0.3407, -0.3221, -0.3056, -0.3295, -0.3298, -0.2869, -0.2719, -0.2576, -0.2068, -0.2012, -0.1931, -0.2322, -0.2979, -0.2888, -0.3197, -0.3011, -0.2938, -0.3049, -0.3049, -0.291, -0.3136, -0.3049, -0.3052, -0.3119, -0.3086, -0.3267, -0.3189, -0.3739, -0.3738, -0.3999, -0.4137, -0.3815, -0.3768, -0.3546, -0.3554, -0.3837, -0.3949, -0.3949, -0.401, -0.4333, -0.4735, -0.4676, -0.4582, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2015536672281161871", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-25T21:26:04+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "HARD ASSETS that can't be printed into oblivion—physical silver, gold", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strong buy hard assets — silver, gold, and related ETFs — as dollar purchasing power collapses amid Fed money printing.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "\"This $1 American Silver Eagle—1 oz of real, .999 silver—is now worth $115 on the street (spot ripping through $103–$104/oz + premium rage).\n\nThat means your Federal Reserve toilet paper has ALREADY 99% of its purchasing power against silver.\n\nThe Fed criminals are still running the presses at warp speed—trillions more in fake debt and worthless digits being birthed every month while they laugh.\n\nWake the hell up.\n\nCash is dying. Savings accounts are a joke. Bonds are suicide.\n\nIf you're not stacking HARD ASSETS that can't be printed into oblivion—physical silver, gold,productive real estate, dividend-crushing stocks—you're volunteering to get poorer every single day.\n\nThe dollar is being murdered in broad daylight.\n\nStop being a victim. Stack like your future depends on it—because it does.\n\nWhat do you think?\n\n🦅🔥 NO EXCUSES     #GOLD #SILVER\n#PLATINUM   $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.014417929913989935, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.014417929913989935, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.009365356291963778, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.009365356291963778, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.024531942321975864, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.024531942321975864, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02054777694350496, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02054777694350496, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "ret_p1w": -0.08084787247107006, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08084787247107006, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.08471653425564318, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.08471653425564318, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "ret_p1m": 0.02132552804865484, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02132552804865484, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02909199324540246, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.02909199324540246, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "ret_p3m": -0.07243383425415817, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07243383425415817, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.09791964910189721, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.09791964910189721, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02132552804865484, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02909199324540246, "alpha_c_stated": 0.02909199324540246, "price_path": [-0.2189, -0.2035, -0.2078, -0.2064, -0.2203, -0.2113, -0.2122, -0.2074, -0.1858, -0.1825, -0.1694, -0.1761, -0.191, -0.2002, -0.1944, -0.1931, -0.1934, -0.1946, -0.1818, -0.1821, -0.1756, -0.1756, -0.1653, -0.1613, -0.1667, -0.1675, -0.1669, -0.1684, -0.1706, -0.1663, -0.1628, -0.1538, -0.149, -0.1483, -0.1481, -0.1408, -0.1423, -0.1413, -0.1215, -0.1099, -0.1136, -0.1136, -0.1032, -0.1422, -0.1416, -0.1472, -0.1472, -0.1429, -0.1204, -0.1109, -0.1194, -0.1145, -0.1081, -0.0914, -0.0927, -0.0834, -0.089, -0.0934, -0.0934, -0.0591, -0.0454, -0.0278, -0.0144, 0.0, 0.0245, 0.0643, 0.0671, -0.0425, -0.0808, -0.0224, -0.0231, -0.0491, -0.0199, 0.005, -0.0049, 0.0063, -0.0286, -0.0045, -0.0045, -0.0355, -0.0138, -0.0111, 0.0084, 0.0357, 0.0213, 0.0188, 0.0275, 0.041, 0.0544, 0.0074, 0.0153, 0.0031, 0.019, 0.0168, 0.0283, 0.0248, 0.0047, -0.0083, -0.0092, -0.0117, -0.043, -0.0824, -0.1104, -0.1305, -0.1303, -0.1042, -0.1379, -0.1076, -0.1079, -0.074, -0.0578, -0.0759, -0.0759, -0.0797, -0.0708, -0.0649, -0.0577, -0.0593, -0.0631, -0.0422, -0.0522, -0.053, -0.0404, -0.0487, -0.0756, -0.0634, -0.0724, -0.0677, -0.0749, -0.0921, -0.1018, -0.0883, -0.0893, -0.1076, -0.0999, -0.0726, -0.0711, -0.0666, -0.0647, -0.0684, -0.0736, -0.0807, -0.102, -0.0996, -0.1145, -0.1018, -0.1027, -0.1095, -0.1095, -0.1091, -0.121, -0.1117, -0.1024, -0.115, -0.1135, -0.1223, -0.115, -0.1473, -0.1451, -0.1591, -0.1939, -0.1687, -0.1682, -0.1467, -0.1443, -0.1638, -0.1669, -0.1669, -0.1724, -0.188, -0.2126, -0.2049, -0.196, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2015536672281161871", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-01-25T21:26:04+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Stack like your future depends on it—because it does. #GOLD #SILVER $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strong buy hard assets — silver, gold, and related ETFs — as dollar purchasing power collapses amid Fed money printing.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "\"This $1 American Silver Eagle—1 oz of real, .999 silver—is now worth $115 on the street (spot ripping through $103–$104/oz + premium rage).\n\nThat means your Federal Reserve toilet paper has ALREADY 99% of its purchasing power against silver.\n\nThe Fed criminals are still running the presses at warp speed—trillions more in fake debt and worthless digits being birthed every month while they laugh.\n\nWake the hell up.\n\nCash is dying. Savings accounts are a joke. Bonds are suicide.\n\nIf you're not stacking HARD ASSETS that can't be printed into oblivion—physical silver, gold,productive real estate, dividend-crushing stocks—you're volunteering to get poorer every single day.\n\nThe dollar is being murdered in broad daylight.\n\nStop being a victim. Stack like your future depends on it—because it does.\n\nWhat do you think?\n\n🦅🔥 NO EXCUSES     #GOLD #SILVER\n#PLATINUM   $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.004279928354110063, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004279928354110063, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0007726452679160944, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0007726452679160944, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0168403191483244, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0168403191483244, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012856153769853496, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.012856153769853496, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "ret_p1w": -0.12365091645366044, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.12365091645366044, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.12751957823823357, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.12751957823823357, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "ret_p1m": 0.02995900158855802, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02995900158855802, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03772546678530564, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03772546678530564, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "ret_p3m": -0.14225902900979936, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.14225902900979936, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1677448438575384, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1677448438575384, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02995900158855802, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03772546678530564, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03772546678530564, "price_path": [-0.3435, -0.3266, -0.3344, -0.3414, -0.3693, -0.3472, -0.3464, -0.3299, -0.2982, -0.2914, -0.268, -0.2883, -0.2965, -0.3077, -0.3014, -0.2944, -0.326, -0.3197, -0.2799, -0.2814, -0.2467, -0.2467, -0.2312, -0.235, -0.2462, -0.2513, -0.2482, -0.2515, -0.2688, -0.2431, -0.2304, -0.2032, -0.2088, -0.2162, -0.2164, -0.2072, -0.2087, -0.1891, -0.161, -0.1601, -0.1654, -0.1654, -0.1506, -0.2012, -0.192, -0.202, -0.202, -0.2024, -0.1771, -0.1427, -0.1528, -0.1483, -0.1388, -0.1094, -0.1024, -0.0988, -0.0965, -0.0953, -0.0953, -0.0437, -0.0576, -0.0215, -0.0043, 0.0, 0.0168, 0.0435, 0.0047, -0.1236, -0.1237, -0.0862, -0.0817, -0.1399, -0.0939, -0.0427, -0.0416, -0.014, -0.0856, -0.0329, -0.0329, -0.0673, -0.0458, -0.0301, -0.0114, 0.0261, 0.03, 0.0342, 0.0596, 0.0778, 0.0731, -0.0208, -0.0149, -0.0527, -0.0568, -0.0469, -0.0382, -0.0569, -0.0761, -0.1323, -0.1219, -0.1258, -0.1802, -0.2287, -0.2546, -0.2242, -0.2231, -0.1969, -0.2334, -0.2018, -0.2018, -0.1462, -0.1067, -0.1199, -0.1199, -0.1271, -0.1164, -0.0865, -0.0849, -0.0753, -0.0809, -0.0626, -0.0903, -0.0914, -0.0664, -0.0777, -0.1348, -0.121, -0.1423, -0.1223, -0.1385, -0.1762, -0.1978, -0.1785, -0.1895, -0.2031, -0.2016, -0.1399, -0.1466, -0.1199, -0.0919, -0.0962, -0.1047, -0.1259, -0.1873, -0.1892, -0.2205, -0.1965, -0.1999, -0.209, -0.209, -0.1766, -0.2051, -0.1889, -0.1674, -0.1935, -0.1808, -0.2092, -0.1961, -0.2665, -0.268, -0.2781, -0.3133, -0.2769, -0.2554, -0.2066, -0.1883, -0.2151, -0.2323, -0.2323, -0.2423, -0.2774, -0.306, -0.296, -0.2836, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2015536672281161871", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-01-25T21:26:04+00:00", "symbol": "SIL", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Stack like your future depends on it—because it does. $GDX $SIL", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strong buy hard assets — silver, gold, and related ETFs — as dollar purchasing power collapses amid Fed money printing.", "resolved_tickers": ["SIL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "\"This $1 American Silver Eagle—1 oz of real, .999 silver—is now worth $115 on the street (spot ripping through $103–$104/oz + premium rage).\n\nThat means your Federal Reserve toilet paper has ALREADY 99% of its purchasing power against silver.\n\nThe Fed criminals are still running the presses at warp speed—trillions more in fake debt and worthless digits being birthed every month while they laugh.\n\nWake the hell up.\n\nCash is dying. Savings accounts are a joke. Bonds are suicide.\n\nIf you're not stacking HARD ASSETS that can't be printed into oblivion—physical silver, gold,productive real estate, dividend-crushing stocks—you're volunteering to get poorer every single day.\n\nThe dollar is being murdered in broad daylight.\n\nStop being a victim. Stack like your future depends on it—because it does.\n\nWhat do you think?\n\n🦅🔥 NO EXCUSES     #GOLD #SILVER\n#PLATINUM   $GLD $SLV $GDX $SIL", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.004017539229125289, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004017539229125289, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0010350343929008687, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0010350343929008687, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0050525736220261575, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006428008275791708, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.006428008275791708, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0024438428973208026, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0024438428973208026, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "bench_c_p1d": 0.003984165378470905, "ret_p1w": -0.16686012039063103, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.16686012039063103, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.17072878217520415, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.17072878217520415, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003868661784573124, "ret_p1m": -0.0027676562992227094, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0027676562992227094, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.004998808897524909, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.004998808897524909, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007766465196747618, "ret_p3m": -0.15909293237179756, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.15909293237179756, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1845787472195366, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1845787472195366, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "bench_c_p3m": 0.02548581484773904, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0027676562992227094, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.004998808897524909, "alpha_c_stated": 0.004998808897524909, "price_path": [-0.4129, -0.4037, -0.4121, -0.4245, -0.4506, -0.4481, -0.4426, -0.4275, -0.4019, -0.4007, -0.3779, -0.3881, -0.3967, -0.4109, -0.4061, -0.3957, -0.4283, -0.4259, -0.3936, -0.3874, -0.3517, -0.3517, -0.3141, -0.3104, -0.3189, -0.3247, -0.3269, -0.3281, -0.3398, -0.3069, -0.2955, -0.2636, -0.2715, -0.2736, -0.2776, -0.2704, -0.2761, -0.2516, -0.2222, -0.2189, -0.2256, -0.2256, -0.205, -0.247, -0.2366, -0.2544, -0.2544, -0.2589, -0.2322, -0.2008, -0.2168, -0.2188, -0.1986, -0.1608, -0.157, -0.1533, -0.1394, -0.122, -0.122, -0.077, -0.0869, -0.0299, -0.004, 0.0, 0.0064, 0.0224, -0.0121, -0.1581, -0.1669, -0.1129, -0.1113, -0.1791, -0.1305, -0.08, -0.0847, -0.0609, -0.137, -0.0926, -0.0926, -0.1292, -0.1027, -0.0785, -0.038, -0.0164, -0.0028, 0.0112, 0.0412, 0.0537, 0.0445, -0.0487, -0.0405, -0.0859, -0.0962, -0.0853, -0.0617, -0.084, -0.1092, -0.1581, -0.1503, -0.1589, -0.2155, -0.2603, -0.293, -0.2614, -0.255, -0.2377, -0.2754, -0.2485, -0.2541, -0.1958, -0.1674, -0.1728, -0.1728, -0.179, -0.1711, -0.1439, -0.146, -0.137, -0.1316, -0.1091, -0.1287, -0.1324, -0.0985, -0.1121, -0.1591, -0.1328, -0.1591, -0.153, -0.1635, -0.2035, -0.2283, -0.2092, -0.2084, -0.2242, -0.2288, -0.1547, -0.1586, -0.1319, -0.0898, -0.083, -0.0838, -0.1154, -0.1822, -0.1911, -0.2278, -0.2002, -0.202, -0.2134, -0.2134, -0.1846, -0.2077, -0.1878, -0.1632, -0.1832, -0.1781, -0.2189, -0.2097, -0.2922, -0.2895, -0.3055, -0.337, -0.2939, -0.2708, -0.2237, -0.2034, -0.2327, -0.2525, -0.2525, -0.2584, -0.2989, -0.3253, -0.3118, -0.2999, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2017986638610092291", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-01T15:41:21+00:00", "symbol": "SI=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "FRIDAY CHANGES NOTHING. THE SONG REMAINS THE SAME.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bullish silver; endorses thesis that the recent crash changes nothing and the long-term monetary disorder trend continues.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SI=F is silver futures; SLV is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TRUTH. MUST READ. \n\nTHE BILL IS COMING DUE FOR DECADES OF RECKLESS ECONOMIC POLICY.\n\nTHE ESTABLISHMENT IS PANICKING. \n\nFRIDAY CHANGES NOTHING.\n\nTHE SONG REMAINS THE SAME.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "SILVER &amp; THE 10-SIGMA CRASH: A Statistical Impossibility, Engineered Chaos, 5 Theories to Why, $7T Erased, The Physical Frenzy, &amp; the Violent Birth Attempt of a New Monetary Order! https://t.co/dig3JIQlqQ https://t.co/HBnXziOPy5", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041413582259699266, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.041413582259699266, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.046360214187648685, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.046360214187648685, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06239641759706527, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06239641759706527, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.07085180349823783, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07085180349823783, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "ret_p1w": 0.04969627764760198, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04969627764760198, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05179574181394686, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05179574181394686, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "ret_p1m": 0.030922111930923535, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.030922111930923535, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05260701618886343, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05260701618886343, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "bench_c_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "ret_p3m": -0.07979015163579095, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07979015163579095, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.11604601132374948, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.11604601132374948, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "bench_c_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.030922111930923535, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05260701618886343, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05260701618886343, "price_path": [-0.3974, -0.3988, -0.3937, -0.3679, -0.3588, -0.333, -0.3454, -0.3655, -0.3723, -0.3636, -0.3588, -0.368, -0.3747, -0.3563, -0.3557, -0.3319, -0.3319, -0.2931, -0.275, -0.2666, -0.2674, -0.2855, -0.2691, -0.2724, -0.2384, -0.226, -0.2046, -0.2256, -0.1978, -0.2031, -0.1681, -0.1811, -0.1589, -0.1376, -0.1049, -0.0997, -0.0997, -0.0182, -0.0888, -0.0478, -0.1107, -0.1107, -0.0924, -0.0464, 0.0175, -0.0204, -0.0377, -0.0008, 0.0661, 0.085, 0.1673, 0.1502, 0.1184, 0.1184, 0.1788, 0.159, 0.2028, 0.2826, 0.3575, 0.4024, 0.4578, 0.4573, 0.0414, 0.0, 0.0624, 0.093, -0.0794, -0.0311, 0.0497, 0.0134, 0.0569, -0.065, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0838, -0.0324, -0.0197, 0.0577, 0.1122, 0.0917, 0.1049, 0.1106, 0.1732, 0.126, 0.0309, 0.04, 0.0253, 0.0483, 0.0803, 0.1056, 0.0755, 0.0558, 0.0035, 0.0108, -0.0108, -0.0516, -0.0933, -0.1507, -0.1376, -0.131, -0.0998, -0.1611, -0.1242, -0.1231, -0.0594, -0.0594, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.0877, -0.0897, -0.0686, -0.0559, -0.0464, -0.0574, -0.0055, -0.0083, -0.0166, 0.0164, -0.004, -0.0545, -0.0286, -0.056, -0.0504, -0.0567, -0.0861, -0.1049, -0.0798, -0.0573, -0.0897, -0.0901, -0.0319, -0.0116, 0.0079, 0.0768, 0.0843, 0.0954, 0.0424, -0.0469, -0.0345, -0.0765, -0.0512, -0.0413, -0.0563, -0.0563, -0.0375, -0.0682, -0.0563, -0.0567, -0.0658, -0.0614, -0.086, -0.0754, -0.1501, -0.1499, -0.1854, -0.204, -0.1604, -0.1539, -0.1238, -0.1249, -0.1633, -0.1785, -0.1785, -0.1868, -0.2307, -0.2852, -0.2772, -0.2645, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2024950501716955395", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-20T20:53:16+00:00", "symbol": "Blue Owl Capital", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "It's blowing up because of what it always was: an illiquid asset class sold with a liquidity promise it could never keep. The gates aren't going up because borrowers are defaulting. The gates are going up because investors want out and there's no exit.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish Blue Owl / private credit: illiquid assets sold with false liquidity promises, gates going up as investors flee, facing class-action suit — structural crisis, not a software-default story.", "resolved_tickers": ["OWL"], "resolution_method": "exchange_ticker", "resolution_reason": "Blue Owl Capital trades as OWL on NYSE", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "\"We're not halting liquidity, we're accelerating returns.\"\n\nBeautiful language. Almost poetic. Reminds me of every press release I read from mortgage lenders in early 2007.\n\nLet me translate from corporate PR to English:\n\nYou froze redemptions in November. You tried to force a merger that would have cost investors 20% of their money. Investors revolted. You killed the deal. \n\nNow you're permanently replacing the quarterly tender offer with distributions YOU control, on YOUR timeline, and calling it an upgrade.\n\nThat's not \"accelerating returns.\" That's telling investors they'll never again choose when to exit - and dressing it up as a favor.\n\nThey sold $600 million in assets at \"99.7% of fair value.\" \n\nBut fair value according to whom? \n\nThe same managers who told investors there was \"no meaningful pressure\" on redemptions while $150 million was walking out the door? \n\nThe same firm now facing a federal class-action lawsuit for allegedly hiding a liquidity crisis?\n\nAnd I keep hearing the clever argument that private credit is fine because software companies have sticky revenue, big equity cushions, and sponsors will play nice to protect their relationships.\n\nI've been doing this for 45 years.\n\nAnd every cycle produces a version of this  - smart-sounding people explaining why THIS time the risks are contained.\n\nIn 2006 it was: \"Housing doesn't go down nationally.\" \n\nIn 2000 it was: \"Revenue doesn't matter, it's about eyeballs.\" \n\nToday it's: \"Software companies can't blow up.\"\n\nMaybe. But private credit didn't blow up because of software defaults. \n\nIt's blowing up because of what it always was: an illiquid asset class sold with a liquidity promise it could never keep. \n\nThe gates aren't going up because borrowers are defaulting. The gates are going up because investors want out and there's no exit.\n\nWhen Blue Owl shuts off the comments section on their own announcement, that tells you more than the announcement itself.\n\nWhen you see one cockroach, there are probably more.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.050416275373835084, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.050416275373835084, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.05759620052632164, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.05689372777136992, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007179925152486555, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006477452397534833, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03422767824893447, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03422767824893447, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0240163122101682, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0006974571627318404, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.010211366038766267, "bench_c_p1d": -0.03353022108620263, "ret_p1w": -0.024051867369789814, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.024051867369789814, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.019062151805115057, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0038575130100994004, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.004989715564674757, "bench_c_p1w": -0.020194354359690414, "ret_p1m": -0.15911200606804887, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.15911200606804887, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11231944959443496, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.10259197492549221, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04679255647361391, "bench_c_p1m": -0.05652003114255666, "ret_p3m": -0.07871812468395578, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07871812468395578, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15681788891313142, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.06796461834244605, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07809976422917564, "bench_c_p3m": -0.010753506341509733, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.15911200606804887, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11231944959443496, "alpha_c_stated": 0.10259197492549221, "price_path": [0.3108, 0.338, 0.338, 0.3606, 0.3634, 0.3525, 0.4205, 0.4568, 0.4731, 0.4532, 0.5121, 0.5021, 0.4613, 0.4196, 0.4142, 0.4359, 0.396, 0.4042, 0.396, 0.4405, 0.4223, 0.4024, 0.4024, 0.3634, 0.3833, 0.3597, 0.3552, 0.3552, 0.3888, 0.4396, 0.455, 0.4133, 0.4314, 0.4269, 0.4314, 0.3879, 0.4151, 0.4323, 0.445, 0.445, 0.3924, 0.4296, 0.4232, 0.3733, 0.3253, 0.318, 0.3153, 0.269, 0.2373, 0.2173, 0.0985, 0.094, 0.055, 0.1357, 0.1466, 0.1765, 0.1438, 0.133, 0.1157, 0.1157, 0.0958, 0.1166, 0.0504, 0.0, -0.0342, -0.0074, 0.05, 0.0379, -0.0241, -0.012, -0.05, -0.0435, -0.0361, -0.0851, -0.0925, -0.1249, -0.1656, -0.2035, -0.1906, -0.1896, -0.1536, -0.1573, -0.1563, -0.1563, -0.1591, -0.1711, -0.1647, -0.1656, -0.1822, -0.161, -0.1554, -0.1943, -0.2072, -0.2072, -0.2183, -0.2165, -0.2303, -0.234, -0.2387, -0.2183, -0.1517, -0.0823, -0.1073, -0.0888, -0.0851, -0.087, -0.0823, -0.1286, -0.1508, -0.1748, -0.1804, -0.1785, -0.0981, -0.0768, -0.0638, -0.0056, -0.025, -0.0426, -0.0231, -0.0675, -0.0749, -0.0749, -0.0711, -0.1043, -0.1014, -0.1071, -0.0787, -0.0342, -0.0475, -0.0475, -0.0437, -0.0408, -0.0598, -0.0266, -0.0087, -0.0465, -0.0825, -0.0352, -0.0721, -0.1081, -0.092, -0.1033, -0.0797, -0.0835, -0.0901, -0.0683, -0.1014, -0.0977, -0.0977, -0.1261, -0.1564, -0.198, -0.1971, -0.1886, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2018779585350103238", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-03T20:12:14+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short all of it.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short all four named assets (BTC, ETH, BMNR, BITF); dismisses the support thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Short all of it.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Listen to me carefully. \n\nCrypto is on a major support. Bitcoin, Ethereum, BMNR and BITF.\n\nIf we don't bounce and hold here, I can see Bitcoin at 52k and ETH at 1,5k.\n \nHope this helps and know the asset you're trading/ investing.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.040395021471746784, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.040395021471746784, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.031867532359360906, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.031867532359360906, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03455931736640505, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03455931736640505, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.029715463640411666, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.029715463640411666, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "ret_p1w": -0.0904305856342269, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0904305856342269, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0941867457902752, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0941867457902752, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "ret_p1m": -0.03864645875765693, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03864645875765693, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03226534687729876, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03226534687729876, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "bench_c_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "ret_p3m": 0.0336550807171172, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0336550807171172, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.014331400309869124, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.014331400309869124, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03864645875765693, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03226534687729876, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03226534687729876, "price_path": [0.3394, 0.3668, 0.4014, 0.3618, 0.3442, 0.3182, 0.2481, 0.2176, 0.2289, 0.2093, 0.1454, 0.125, 0.1671, 0.1548, 0.1968, 0.2069, 0.2021, 0.1413, 0.2078, 0.2366, 0.2183, 0.1819, 0.1984, 0.2255, 0.2167, 0.2232, 0.1935, 0.1426, 0.1614, 0.139, 0.13, 0.1649, 0.17, 0.1558, 0.1584, 0.1534, 0.1543, 0.1521, 0.1692, 0.157, 0.1732, 0.1892, 0.2413, 0.2393, 0.2072, 0.2035, 0.1967, 0.2057, 0.2603, 0.2816, 0.2633, 0.263, 0.2237, 0.1676, 0.1817, 0.1828, 0.1834, 0.167, 0.1781, 0.1792, 0.118, 0.1123, 0.0404, 0.0, -0.0346, -0.171, -0.0671, -0.0729, -0.0904, -0.1143, -0.1244, -0.0896, -0.0898, -0.1076, -0.1217, -0.1147, -0.1009, -0.1457, -0.1528, -0.1015, -0.1082, -0.1289, -0.0907, -0.097, -0.0386, -0.0634, -0.0991, -0.0956, -0.0755, -0.0718, -0.068, -0.0617, -0.0102, -0.0226, -0.058, -0.0756, -0.0676, -0.0624, -0.0676, -0.0572, -0.0905, -0.1229, -0.1182, -0.0978, -0.0999, -0.1156, -0.1151, -0.0896, -0.0488, -0.0596, -0.0511, -0.0351, -0.0152, -0.0192, -0.011, -0.0064, 0.0197, 0.0032, 0.0095, 0.034, 0.0348, 0.0241, 0.0229, 0.0095, 0.0019, 0.0089, 0.0337, 0.0555, 0.07, 0.0766, 0.0579, 0.0602, 0.0806, 0.064, 0.0482, 0.0716, 0.0454, 0.0175, 0.0148, 0.0241, 0.0252, -0.0019, 0.0218, 0.0025, -0.017, -0.0277, -0.0299, -0.057, -0.1181, -0.1536, -0.1564, -0.1945, -0.1658, -0.185, -0.1875, -0.1596, -0.1599, -0.1235, -0.1327, -0.1483, -0.1684, -0.1599, -0.1544, -0.1714, -0.1935, -0.2104, -0.2065, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2018779585350103238", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-03T20:12:14+00:00", "symbol": "ETH-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short all of it.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short all four named assets (BTC, ETH, BMNR, BITF); dismisses the support thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["ETH-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Short all of it.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Listen to me carefully. \n\nCrypto is on a major support. Bitcoin, Ethereum, BMNR and BITF.\n\nIf we don't bounce and hold here, I can see Bitcoin at 52k and ETH at 1,5k.\n \nHope this helps and know the asset you're trading/ investing.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.05243311627768321, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.05243311627768321, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.043905627165297334, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.043905627165297334, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.037733992059035826, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.037733992059035826, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03289013833304244, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03289013833304244, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "ret_p1w": -0.0934033246745617, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0934033246745617, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09715948483060999, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.09715948483060999, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "ret_p1m": -0.04536511677176036, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.04536511677176036, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03898400489140219, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03898400489140219, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "bench_c_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "ret_p3m": 0.03031790270165291, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.03031790270165291, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.017668578325333417, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.017668578325333417, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.04536511677176036, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03898400489140219, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03898400489140219, "price_path": [0.4869, 0.5422, 0.602, 0.5332, 0.5322, 0.4513, 0.3934, 0.3578, 0.402, 0.3571, 0.2712, 0.2416, 0.3255, 0.3279, 0.3593, 0.3533, 0.3613, 0.2571, 0.3458, 0.4328, 0.4071, 0.3577, 0.403, 0.4909, 0.4928, 0.4532, 0.3846, 0.3307, 0.3307, 0.2711, 0.2691, 0.3369, 0.3495, 0.3303, 0.3223, 0.3035, 0.3134, 0.3174, 0.3339, 0.332, 0.3469, 0.4026, 0.4483, 0.4796, 0.4217, 0.3936, 0.384, 0.3882, 0.4914, 0.506, 0.4891, 0.4794, 0.4305, 0.3179, 0.3373, 0.3242, 0.3258, 0.3138, 0.3567, 0.3497, 0.2652, 0.2132, 0.0524, 0.0, -0.0377, -0.1822, -0.0737, -0.0557, -0.0934, -0.1288, -0.126, -0.0804, -0.1031, -0.1057, -0.1228, -0.1254, -0.1161, -0.167, -0.1682, -0.0776, -0.0901, -0.1332, -0.0899, -0.1099, -0.0454, -0.07, -0.1117, -0.1053, -0.0855, -0.079, -0.0693, -0.0606, 0.0555, 0.0406, -0.0107, -0.0405, -0.0364, -0.0339, -0.0323, -0.0267, -0.0754, -0.1061, -0.0916, -0.0552, -0.0399, -0.0766, -0.0782, -0.0538, 0.0064, -0.0167, -0.0172, 0.0079, 0.0643, 0.043, 0.0592, 0.0544, 0.0869, 0.0393, 0.0451, 0.0667, 0.0467, 0.0396, 0.0339, 0.0278, 0.0116, 0.0129, 0.0303, 0.0533, 0.06, 0.0553, 0.0285, 0.0357, 0.0502, 0.0211, 0.0135, 0.024, -0.0019, -0.0445, -0.0528, -0.0452, -0.0432, -0.0731, -0.0522, -0.0703, -0.0922, -0.0988, -0.0968, -0.1007, -0.166, -0.1867, -0.2056, -0.2903, -0.2413, -0.2648, -0.2727, -0.2493, -0.2525, -0.1942, -0.1963, -0.2153, -0.2326, -0.2319, -0.2249, -0.2523, -0.2728, -0.2975, -0.2922, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2018779585350103238", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-02-03T20:12:14+00:00", "symbol": "BMNR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Short all of it.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short all four named assets (BTC, ETH, BMNR, BITF); dismisses the support thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["BMNR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Short all of it.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Listen to me carefully. \n\nCrypto is on a major support. Bitcoin, Ethereum, BMNR and BITF.\n\nIf we don't bounce and hold here, I can see Bitcoin at 52k and ETH at 1,5k.\n \nHope this helps and know the asset you're trading/ investing.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.020134176640279167, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.020134176640279167, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.011606687527893289, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.010793655017006909, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009340521623272258, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.09172264471676816, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.09172264471676816, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.08687879099077478, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0997554530599688, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "bench_c_p1d": 0.008032808343200637, "ret_p1w": -0.10738253143476906, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.10738253143476906, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.11113869159081735, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.1077561638005039, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00037363236573484393, "ret_p1m": -0.055033535626071606, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.055033535626071606, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.048652423745713436, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.017110856824331777, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03792267880173983, "ret_p3m": -0.021029137032713474, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.021029137032713474, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.0690156180596998, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.004061735490866969, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "bench_c_p3m": -0.025090872523580443, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.055033535626071606, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.048652423745713436, "alpha_c_stated": 0.017110856824331777, "price_path": [0.6715, 0.7995, 0.8406, 0.7708, 0.8147, 0.6358, 0.5387, 0.3844, 0.4439, 0.3052, 0.1639, 0.163, 0.3911, 0.2931, 0.4197, 0.4197, 0.4814, 0.2945, 0.4273, 0.5056, 0.6246, 0.5235, 0.6036, 0.7544, 0.8076, 0.7172, 0.5597, 0.3848, 0.4045, 0.3119, 0.272, 0.4031, 0.3911, 0.3324, 0.3132, 0.3132, 0.2667, 0.277, 0.2403, 0.2148, 0.2148, 0.3955, 0.4922, 0.4465, 0.3584, 0.3996, 0.345, 0.3928, 0.3969, 0.4613, 0.3812, 0.3942, 0.3942, 0.2635, 0.3132, 0.2931, 0.2886, 0.2438, 0.3123, 0.3257, 0.1946, 0.123, 0.0201, 0.0, -0.0917, -0.2215, -0.0841, -0.0403, -0.1074, -0.1289, -0.1168, -0.0622, -0.0622, -0.0984, -0.1132, -0.1069, -0.0993, -0.14, -0.1302, -0.038, -0.0855, -0.1508, -0.0872, -0.1244, -0.055, -0.0895, -0.1553, -0.0738, -0.0725, -0.0582, -0.0805, -0.081, 0.0465, 0.0394, -0.0421, -0.0541, -0.0631, -0.0483, -0.0694, -0.0497, -0.1289, -0.1772, -0.1812, -0.115, -0.119, -0.1298, -0.1298, -0.0783, -0.0975, -0.0371, -0.0568, -0.0479, -0.0376, -0.0389, -0.0004, 0.004, 0.0268, 0.0081, -0.0286, 0.043, -0.0157, -0.0094, -0.0358, -0.0389, -0.0756, -0.0425, -0.021, 0.0197, 0.0336, 0.0251, -0.0157, -0.0081, 0.03, -0.0304, -0.0523, -0.0157, -0.111, -0.162, -0.1664, -0.1324, -0.1226, -0.1553, -0.1553, -0.1409, -0.1579, -0.1387, -0.1378, -0.1566, -0.196, -0.2438, -0.1996, -0.2886, -0.2461, -0.2752, -0.3002, -0.2609, -0.2792, -0.2345, -0.2747, -0.2975, -0.2779, -0.2779, -0.2904, -0.323, -0.3727, -0.404, -0.3933, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006215873569214558", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-31T04:08:32+00:00", "symbol": "MU", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when, not if. History would argue that buying $MU now is likely to lead to poor returns over time.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Bearish MU: expensive on P/B, wildly over-earning at cycle peak; capacity or demand shock will cause earnings/stock collapse, buying now leads to poor returns.", "resolved_tickers": ["MU"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "“Nobody knows where this cycle will end.” Agreed. I don’t. You don’t.\nBut we do know that $MU is expensive on a price to book basis. As I learned from my former boss Peter Lynch it is usually a bad idea to buy a stock in a cyclical industry when it appears cheap. Micron is inexpensive based on current earnings, but is wildly over earning at present. Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when, not if. History would argue that buying $MU now is likely to lead to poor returns over time.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "I just doubled my position in $MU. Now ~6% of my portfolio. Reasons in screenshot.\n\nGive me your best argument on how/why Micron would not be a $750-$1,000 stock by end of 2026. I think that might even be super conservative. Go! https://t.co/rbTkPibNa5", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "hamids", "ret_m1d": 0.025296874712517292, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.025296874712517292, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.017832720925736734, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01646675049996782, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0074641537867805585, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008830124212549473, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.189691955447292, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.189691955447292, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.17845896772612324, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.12057806936896132, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011232987721168763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.06911388607833069, "ret_p1m": 0.5268911602727657, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5268911602727657, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5091178487279144, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.367532086180802, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01777331154485129, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1593590740919637, "ret_p3m": 0.1279743630666592, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1279743630666592, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.19869248047269727, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.12131011997681918, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07071811740603806, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0066642430898400384, "ret_p6m": 3.2537746614710468, "ret_signed_p6m": -3.2537746614710468, "alpha_spy_p6m": -3.17123967277215, "alpha_c_p6m": -2.4853021758472638, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08253498869889708, "bench_c_p6m": 0.768472485623783, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1279743630666592, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.19869248047269727, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12131011997681918, "price_path": [-0.3422, -0.3312, -0.3497, -0.3117, -0.3264, -0.364, -0.3249, -0.3449, -0.3278, -0.2907, -0.2912, -0.2758, -0.2915, -0.3049, -0.276, -0.2329, -0.2291, -0.2228, -0.2063, -0.2154, -0.2163, -0.178, -0.2364, -0.1682, -0.1653, -0.1667, -0.1129, -0.1556, -0.1423, -0.1701, -0.1355, -0.1526, -0.1997, -0.2088, -0.2947, -0.2737, -0.2157, -0.2136, -0.1936, -0.1936, -0.1718, -0.1578, -0.1612, -0.1799, -0.2062, -0.1692, -0.1352, -0.1159, -0.0764, -0.0948, -0.1555, -0.1682, -0.1857, -0.2102, -0.1295, -0.0687, -0.0313, -0.0324, 0.004, 0.004, -0.0026, 0.0314, 0.0253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1051, 0.0937, 0.2033, 0.1897, 0.1458, 0.2091, 0.2118, 0.1847, 0.168, 0.1795, 0.271, 0.271, 0.2789, 0.3633, 0.393, 0.4003, 0.3633, 0.4374, 0.5251, 0.5269, 0.4536, 0.5339, 0.4696, 0.3293, 0.3415, 0.3829, 0.3437, 0.3078, 0.4377, 0.4504, 0.4423, 0.4423, 0.4007, 0.4749, 0.4623, 0.5002, 0.475, 0.4646, 0.5031, 0.456, 0.4448, 0.4459, 0.3303, 0.4042, 0.3912, 0.2974, 0.3641, 0.4124, 0.467, 0.4202, 0.493, 0.5479, 0.6176, 0.6178, 0.5566, 0.4817, 0.4167, 0.3858, 0.3387, 0.2454, 0.2516, 0.128, 0.1842, 0.2894, 0.2837, 0.2837, 0.3241, 0.3235, 0.4257, 0.4775, 0.4743, 0.4952, 0.6322, 0.5992, 0.6027, 0.5951, 0.5718, 0.5752, 0.7087, 0.6885, 0.7411, 0.8387, 0.7676, 0.8173, 0.8128, 0.9006, 1.0206, 1.244, 1.3365, 1.2666, 1.6177, 1.7878, 1.687, 1.8169, 1.7201, 1.5401, 1.3889, 1.4492, 1.5658, 1.6713, 1.6324, 1.6324, 2.1402, 2.2543, 2.2371, 2.4036, 2.6296, 2.7299, 2.7841, 2.4912, 2.0285, 2.3274, 2.2805, 2.1262, 2.4907, 2.4407, 2.8136, 2.578, 2.6566, 2.9749, 2.9749, 3.2461, 2.6867, 2.6752, 3.2538]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026618478996619748", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-25T11:21:12+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "When an asset class trades inversely to its own thesis, I pay attention. When the volatility disappears and speculators find faster games, I pay attention. When the only people left defending it are the ones who bought at higher prices, I pay attention.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish BTC: volatility gone, thesis broken, speculators leaving for better dopamine hits, long-term holders now selling supply into market.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "BITCOIN IS FOR BOOMERS\n\nBitcoin is the Facebook of speculative assets.\n\nThink about that for a second.\n\nYour kids aren't on Facebook. Neither is anyone under 30. They're on Instagram, TikTok, whatever comes next.\n\nSame thing is happening with Bitcoin.\n\nThe narrative was simple: digital gold. A hedge against fiat currency debasement. Store of value in an uncertain world.\n\nSo what happened last year?\n\nGold doubled. Silver tripled. The NASDAQ ripped higher.\n\nBitcoin? Went nowhere.\n\nIf you're rooting for risk assets to rally, Bitcoin should work. But it didn't.\n\nIf you're rooting for gold to rally, Bitcoin should work. But it didn't.\n\nThe volatility that made Bitcoin exciting is gone. And when there's no juice, speculators leave.\n\nI had a young engineer in one of my Twitter Spaces a few weeks ago. Smart kid. He told me he sold his Bitcoin and bought gold and silver. Then he said he \"totally disagreed\" with my theory that declining Bitcoin volatility is bearish.\n\nI asked him why he sold.\n\n\"It wasn't moving enough.\"\n\nHe literally proved my point without knowing it.\n\nMeanwhile, the real action is elsewhere:\n\nFanDuel. DraftKings. Zero-DTE options. Prediction markets.\n\nWhy wait around for a 10% Bitcoin move when you can get instant gratification betting on tonight's game or buying options that expire in 4 hours?\n\nThe democratization of speculation created better dopamine delivery systems. Bitcoin was the gateway drug. Now there's harder stuff.\n\nAnd the hodlers who've been there since the early days are finally SELLING. \n\nSupply is coming out. The diamond hands are becoming paper hands.\n\nIt's not my job to tell you what to think.\n\nBut when an asset class trades inversely to its own thesis, I pay attention.\n\nWhen the volatility disappears and speculators find faster games, I pay attention.\n\nWhen the only people left defending it are the ones who bought at higher prices, I pay attention.\n\nBitcoin isn't dead. The internet didn't die after 2000 either.\n\nBut if you bought Cisco at the peak, you're still underwater 25 years later.\n\nThe technology can survive...\n\nYour portfolio might not.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.05709350933727686, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.05709350933727686, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.048725812227976895, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.048725812227976895, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008367697109299965, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008367697109299965, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007450715585058165, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007450715585058165, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0018962700058510196, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0018962700058510196, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005554445579207146, "bench_c_p1d": -0.005554445579207146, "ret_p1w": 0.06990059428230899, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06990059428230899, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.08147095429617868, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.08147095429617868, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011570360013869685, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011570360013869685, "ret_p1m": 0.012235115812397446, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.012235115812397446, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.07902912533938788, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07902912533938788, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.06679400952699044, "bench_c_p1m": -0.06679400952699044, "ret_p3m": 0.13713636764941217, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13713636764941217, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.058471817619611066, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.058471817619611066, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0786645500298011, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0786645500298011, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.012235115812397446, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.07902912533938788, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07902912533938788, "price_path": [0.3378, 0.2702, 0.3442, 0.3762, 0.3558, 0.3153, 0.3337, 0.3639, 0.354, 0.3613, 0.3283, 0.2716, 0.2926, 0.2676, 0.2575, 0.2964, 0.3021, 0.2863, 0.2892, 0.2836, 0.2846, 0.2822, 0.3012, 0.2876, 0.3056, 0.3235, 0.3814, 0.3792, 0.3436, 0.3394, 0.3319, 0.3419, 0.4026, 0.4263, 0.406, 0.4056, 0.3619, 0.2995, 0.3151, 0.3164, 0.317, 0.2988, 0.3111, 0.3123, 0.2443, 0.2379, 0.1579, 0.1129, 0.0744, -0.0774, 0.0382, 0.0318, 0.0123, -0.0142, -0.0256, 0.0132, 0.013, -0.0069, -0.0226, -0.0148, 0.0007, -0.0492, -0.0571, 0.0, -0.0075, -0.0306, 0.012, 0.0049, 0.0699, 0.0424, 0.0026, 0.0065, 0.0289, 0.033, 0.0373, 0.0443, 0.1015, 0.0877, 0.0483, 0.0287, 0.0377, 0.0435, 0.0376, 0.0493, 0.0122, -0.0239, -0.0187, 0.004, 0.0017, -0.0158, -0.0151, 0.0132, 0.0586, 0.0465, 0.056, 0.0739, 0.096, 0.0915, 0.1007, 0.1058, 0.1349, 0.1164, 0.1235, 0.1507, 0.1517, 0.1397, 0.1384, 0.1235, 0.115, 0.1228, 0.1504, 0.1746, 0.1908, 0.1982, 0.1773, 0.1799, 0.2026, 0.1842, 0.1665, 0.1926, 0.1634, 0.1323, 0.1294, 0.1398, 0.141, 0.1108, 0.1371, 0.1157, 0.0939, 0.0821, 0.0796, 0.0494, -0.0185, -0.0581, -0.0612, -0.1036, -0.0717, -0.0929, -0.0958, -0.0647, -0.065, -0.0246, -0.0347, -0.0521, -0.0745, -0.065, -0.059, -0.0779, -0.1025, -0.1212, -0.1169, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2009338897369870384", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-08T18:58:19+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short TESLA", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author discloses active short position in Tesla.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@SunilZA Totally disagree. I am sure that you have many opinions that are not expressed in your portfolio.\nI am short TESLA.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 OF CUZ they do. Or keep your non-monetizeable opinion where it belongs.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "SunilZA", "ret_m1d": -0.010073392046410223, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.010073392046410223, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.010174929669525712, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.006359989376630071, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010153762311548853, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016433381423040294, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02113359850994656, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.02113359850994656, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.014520215513057932, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.009011839135834476, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.006613382996888628, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012121759374112084, "ret_p1w": 0.006356171658650656, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.006356171658650656, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.002396827287350023, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.008145903917322062, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003959344371300633, "bench_c_p1w": -0.001789732258671406, "ret_p1m": -0.05665443582604113, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.05665443582604113, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.058264265451070885, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.016547046905194263, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0016098296250297572, "bench_c_p1m": -0.040107388920846865, "ret_p3m": -0.20456630654803043, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20456630654803043, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1632475241523227, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08307663860630421, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04131878239570774, "bench_c_p3m": -0.12148966794172622, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.05665443582604113, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.058264265451070885, "alpha_c_stated": 0.016547046905194263, "price_path": [0.0002, -0.0151, -0.0015, -0.0162, 0.0081, 0.0267, 0.0156, 0.0073, 0.0302, -0.0048, 0.0381, 0.0568, 0.059, 0.0099, 0.0476, 0.0747, 0.0194, 0.0603, 0.0232, -0.0144, 0.0216, 0.0088, -0.0119, -0.0776, -0.0722, -0.0617, -0.0793, -0.073, -0.0931, -0.1026, -0.0413, -0.0376, -0.0212, -0.0212, -0.0129, -0.013, -0.0151, 0.0251, 0.043, 0.0441, 0.0087, 0.0215, 0.0359, 0.0254, 0.0531, 0.0907, 0.1241, 0.0722, 0.1092, 0.1042, 0.1215, 0.1142, 0.1138, 0.1138, 0.0904, 0.0547, 0.0427, 0.0319, 0.0319, 0.0052, 0.0364, -0.0065, -0.0101, 0.0, 0.0211, 0.0302, 0.0262, 0.0078, 0.0064, 0.0039, 0.0039, -0.038, -0.01, 0.0311, 0.0304, -0.0014, -0.0112, -0.01, -0.0441, -0.0124, -0.0321, -0.0318, -0.0684, -0.0885, -0.0567, -0.0424, -0.0243, -0.0173, -0.043, -0.0421, -0.0421, -0.0578, -0.0562, -0.0553, -0.055, -0.0825, -0.0606, -0.0422, -0.0625, -0.0764, -0.0745, -0.0995, -0.0685, -0.0694, -0.0897, -0.0852, -0.0839, -0.0642, -0.0936, -0.1023, -0.0923, -0.0838, -0.0987, -0.1274, -0.1557, -0.1261, -0.1211, -0.1144, -0.1461, -0.1697, -0.1848, -0.147, -0.1251, -0.1726, -0.1726, -0.1904, -0.2046, -0.2124, -0.2069, -0.1993, -0.1913, -0.1643, -0.1006, -0.1076, -0.0807, -0.0994, -0.1133, -0.1108, -0.1425, -0.1365, -0.1311, -0.1372, -0.1446, -0.1243, -0.1032, -0.0993, -0.1065, -0.0851, -0.0551, -0.0171, 0.0211, -0.0054, 0.0217, 0.0172, -0.0311, -0.0592, -0.0727, -0.0425, -0.0412, -0.0225, -0.0225, -0.0051, 0.0105, 0.0145, -0.0, -0.0457, -0.0277, -0.0278, -0.0398, -0.1028, -0.0616, -0.0898, -0.1244, -0.0841, -0.0674, -0.0566, -0.0715, -0.0905, -0.081, -0.081, -0.0706, -0.1243, -0.1383, -0.1392, -0.1287, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2006196262446448865", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-31T02:50:36+00:00", "symbol": "SPOT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$SPOT is expensive, growth is slowing, relative performance is slipping and the stock is below moving averages. Remain short.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Remains short SPOT: expensive valuation, slowing growth, weakening relative performance, below moving averages.", "resolved_tickers": ["SPOT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLC", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Content & Information'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Content & Information", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$SPOT is expensive, growth is slowing, relative performance is slipping and the stock is below moving averages. Remain short. https://t.co/scF1HJXFjg", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$SPOT short https://t.co/bJmr7Q5gc8", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.006939830800896329, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.006939830800896329, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.014403984587676888, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.011781754024612345, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0074641537867805585, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004841923223716016, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.01909735743460428, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01909735743460428, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.030330345155773042, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.01374561741835345, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011232987721168763, "bench_c_p1w": -0.005351740016250828, "ret_p1m": -0.13223468794987947, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.13223468794987947, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.15000799949473076, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.14981877170558855, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01777331154485129, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01758408375570908, "ret_p3m": -0.1820358147317006, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1820358147317006, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.11131769732566255, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10205376685350909, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07071811740603806, "bench_c_p3m": -0.07998204787819152, "ret_p6m": -0.24022321854150253, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.24022321854150253, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3227582072403996, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.142299869669002, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08253498869889708, "bench_c_p6m": -0.09792334887250054, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.13223468794987947, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.15000799949473076, "alpha_c_stated": 0.14981877170558855, "price_path": [0.1718, 0.1715, 0.1717, 0.1619, 0.1601, 0.1801, 0.1917, 0.177, 0.156, 0.1442, 0.1564, 0.1633, 0.1868, 0.1634, 0.1604, 0.1121, 0.1328, 0.1252, 0.1463, 0.1308, 0.1285, 0.1091, 0.0842, 0.0677, 0.0646, 0.0623, 0.0727, 0.1014, 0.1157, 0.1113, 0.0948, 0.1032, 0.096, 0.0651, 0.0147, 0.005, 0.0074, 0.0082, 0.0206, 0.0206, 0.0313, -0.0031, -0.0068, -0.0405, -0.034, -0.0272, -0.0144, 0.0154, 0.0494, 0.0313, 0.0294, -0.0061, -0.0028, -0.0249, -0.0291, 0.0025, -0.0033, -0.0023, 0.0101, 0.0101, 0.0063, 0.0008, -0.0069, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0098, 0.0218, -0.016, -0.0191, -0.0465, -0.0712, -0.0873, -0.0793, -0.0892, -0.1251, -0.1312, -0.1312, -0.1195, -0.1352, -0.1413, -0.1162, -0.1173, -0.1188, -0.124, -0.1322, -0.1384, -0.1242, -0.1838, -0.2414, -0.2892, -0.2723, -0.2856, -0.1803, -0.1611, -0.2323, -0.2107, -0.2107, -0.203, -0.1776, -0.1643, -0.1552, -0.1944, -0.1981, -0.2022, -0.1465, -0.1133, -0.1264, -0.1046, -0.0803, -0.0492, -0.0267, -0.0617, -0.0869, -0.1142, -0.1225, -0.1113, -0.0977, -0.0955, -0.1102, -0.1691, -0.1828, -0.1521, -0.1651, -0.1851, -0.1766, -0.1864, -0.182, -0.165, -0.1906, -0.158, -0.158, -0.1657, -0.1679, -0.168, -0.162, -0.1803, -0.1319, -0.1194, -0.0853, -0.0848, -0.0759, -0.0757, -0.1003, -0.0996, -0.1115, -0.108, -0.1462, -0.2523, -0.2362, -0.231, -0.2397, -0.2453, -0.2776, -0.2677, -0.264, -0.2805, -0.2776, -0.2548, -0.258, -0.2552, -0.2476, -0.2337, -0.2396, -0.2538, -0.1563, -0.1048, -0.1048, -0.0878, -0.1169, -0.1102, -0.143, -0.1256, -0.1364, -0.1604, -0.15, -0.1442, -0.1336, -0.1455, -0.1336, -0.1631, -0.17, -0.1737, -0.191, -0.2154, -0.194, -0.194, -0.209, -0.2156, -0.2165, -0.2402]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2014337578988663094", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-22T14:01:18+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is wildly overvalued. Stay far away.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN; wildly overvalued, avoid.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@RedDogT3 $OPEN is wildly overvalued. Stay far away.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "$open still consolidating https://t.co/pfV5mxULlY", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "RedDogT3", "ret_m1d": 0.009345785368615855, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009345785368615855, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.014541902383265137, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0006200851056719081, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005196117014649282, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009965870474287764, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.06386290382239201, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06386290382239201, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.06422563901136569, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.06653665327905423, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00036273518897367296, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002673749456662211, "ret_p1w": -0.13084114370802236, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.13084114370802236, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1381852622013986, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.13643168507213366, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.007344118493376239, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005590541364111301, "ret_p1m": -0.22118380987834263, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.22118380987834263, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.22183696477054304, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2800073337509307, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0006531548922004138, "bench_c_p1m": 0.058823523872588046, "ret_p3m": -0.15109038247687345, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15109038247687345, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.17579769846179305, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22241406643166473, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.024707315984919598, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07132368395479127, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.22118380987834263, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.22183696477054304, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2800073337509307, "price_path": [0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601, -0.3069, -0.3037, -0.3037, -0.3333, -0.3458, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3193, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2048858413686255713", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-27T20:14:46+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Still only worth $50.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "TSLA is worth only $50, implying significant downside from current price.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Bacon_Puddin That’s all you got? Pathetic. That has been addressed. Still only worth $50.\nYou are financially illiterate.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 You are an idiot… Tesla is not a car company.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Bacon_Puddin", "ret_m1d": 0.007047562607013891, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.007047562607013891, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0021577766793827724, "alpha_c_m1d": 4.5755900117461223e-05, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004889785927631118, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007093318507131352, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.008563377785179571, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.008563377785179571, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.00840886846019362, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007110440469112023, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.00015450932498595193, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0014529373160675485, "ret_p1w": 0.03550344793779092, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03550344793779092, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.01852969147991157, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.026444459884882976, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.016973756457879352, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009058988052907946, "ret_p1m": 0.17110791505169498, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.17110791505169498, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.11663189942157648, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1323078443615482, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0544760156301185, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03880007069014679, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.17110791505169498, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.11663189942157648, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1323078443615482, "price_path": [0.1078, 0.1446, 0.1218, 0.1222, 0.0798, 0.0564, 0.0933, 0.1098, 0.1308, 0.139, 0.1092, 0.1102, 0.1102, 0.092, 0.0939, 0.0949, 0.0952, 0.0633, 0.0887, 0.11, 0.0866, 0.0704, 0.0726, 0.0436, 0.0796, 0.0785, 0.0551, 0.0603, 0.0618, 0.0846, 0.0505, 0.0404, 0.052, 0.0618, 0.0446, 0.0114, -0.0214, 0.0128, 0.0186, 0.0264, -0.0104, -0.0377, -0.0552, -0.0114, 0.0139, -0.041, -0.041, -0.0617, -0.0781, -0.0871, -0.0808, -0.072, -0.0628, -0.0314, 0.0424, 0.0343, 0.0654, 0.0438, 0.0277, 0.0306, -0.0061, 0.0007, 0.007, 0.0, -0.0086, 0.0149, 0.0394, 0.0439, 0.0355, 0.0604, 0.0951, 0.1392, 0.1834, 0.1527, 0.1842, 0.1789, 0.1229, 0.0903, 0.0747, 0.1097, 0.1112, 0.1329, 0.1329, 0.1531, 0.1711, 0.1757, 0.159, 0.106, 0.1269, 0.1268, 0.1128, 0.0398, 0.0876, 0.0549, 0.0148, 0.0615, 0.0809, 0.0934, 0.0762, 0.0541, 0.0651, 0.0651, 0.0772, 0.0149, -0.0013, -0.0024, 0.0098, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2046603397533511746", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-21T14:54:08+00:00", "symbol": "oil", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "When paper catches up to physical (and 45 years of experience tells me it always does) the repricing will be VIOLENT", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "weeks", "summary": "Long oil and energy stocks: physical crude at $144 vs paper $90 gap must close violently as Hormuz blockage is unsolvable; energy stocks most asymmetric trade.", "resolved_tickers": ["USO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "USO is the standard crude oil ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is the single most important number in global markets right now:\n\nPaper oil settled at $90 on Friday.\n\nPhysical oil traded at $144 two weeks ago.\n\nLet me break this down for you...\n\nDated Brent (the benchmark for actual barrels changing hands in the real world) hit $144.42 on April 7. That's the highest physical crude price since S&P Global Platts started publishing it in 1987. Higher than 2008.\n\nMorgan Stanley's analysts said buyers are paying \"an exceptional premium for secure, refinery-usable barrels available now.\"\n\nMeanwhile, Brent futures have been trading between $84 and $99, swinging 15% in 48 hours based on whatever Iran's foreign minister says on any given morning.\n\nThe physical market is pricing a war. The paper market is pricing a peace deal.\n\nOne of them is WRONG.\n\nAnd here's why the PHYSICAL market is right:\n\n230 loaded oil tankers are trapped inside the Persian Gulf. ADNOC's CEO confirmed it. \n\nStrait of Hormuz traffic has dropped over 90%. The ceasefire expires Wednesday and peace talks collapsed in Pakistan over the weekend.\n\n15 to 20 million barrels per day normally move through Hormuz. The only bypass - Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's ADCOP - together handle roughly 9 million. You cannot close a gap that large with infrastructure that doesn't exist.\n\nBut here's what REALLY caught my attention...\n\nContainers are flowing. Oil is not.\n\nMaersk published five operational updates in two weeks building an entirely new shipping map. Containers move from the UAE to Khor Fakkan, get trucked through Oman to Sohar and Salalah, shipped to Jeddah, and reconnected to global routes. Saudi Arabia recorded 94,000 outbound trucks to Gulf land borders in 3 weeks. India's Jawaharlal Nehru Port saw container arrivals surge over 700% from February.\n\n34,000 ships rerouted in 4 weeks.\n\nAnything that fits on a truck has already found a workaround.\n\nBut crude oil has no workaround.\n\nYou cannot load 15 million barrels per day onto trucks. There is no land bridge for hydrocarbons. \n\nThe pipelines are maxed. The tankers are parked.\n\nAnd it doesn't stop at oil:\n\nQatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG contracts with China, Italy, Belgium, and South Korea after Iranian missiles hit the Ras Laffan complex in March. They've extended it through mid-June. \n\nJapan (sourcing 70% of its Middle East crude through Hormuz) is releasing strategic reserves.\n\nMaersk builds a new map in two weeks. QatarEnergy calls its lawyers.\n\nThat's two completely different wars being fought at the same time - one the global supply chain has already solved, and one it cannot.\n\nAnd paper oil prices are trading like this distinction doesn't exist.\n\nThe EIA's base case has Brent peaking at $115 this quarter - assuming the conflict ends in April. Iran's parliament is now drafting a permanent law banning ships from \"hostile\" nations and imposing tolls on everyone else.\n\nEnergy stocks remain the most asymmetric trade in this market.\n\nWhen paper catches up to physical (and 45 years of experience tells me it always does) the repricing will be VIOLENT.\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today:\n\nhttps://t.co/7h8B0bTqF2", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.05403509009883645, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.05403509009883645, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.060625127214238406, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.060625127214238406, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.008966814007675517, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.008966814007675517, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.001159898087443434, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.001159898087443434, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "ret_p1w": 0.08849907293189574, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08849907293189574, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07769071677352457, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.07769071677352457, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "ret_p1m": 0.1249123140152899, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1249123140152899, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07212005466897464, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07212005466897464, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1249123140152899, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07212005466897464, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07212005466897464, "price_path": [-0.44, -0.4234, -0.4271, -0.4101, -0.4026, -0.3829, -0.38, -0.4126, -0.3959, -0.3927, -0.402, -0.3997, -0.3917, -0.3916, -0.3849, -0.4044, -0.4057, -0.4057, -0.4095, -0.3809, -0.3669, -0.3696, -0.3692, -0.3703, -0.3783, -0.378, -0.361, -0.3202, -0.2967, -0.2861, -0.249, -0.1519, -0.1865, -0.1746, -0.1575, -0.0769, -0.0652, -0.1031, -0.0734, -0.0513, -0.0849, -0.0532, -0.1379, -0.1069, -0.1159, -0.0857, -0.0316, 0.0123, -0.0078, -0.0324, 0.0754, 0.0754, 0.0834, 0.0766, -0.0286, -0.0101, -0.0267, 0.0017, -0.0343, -0.0441, -0.0188, -0.0952, -0.054, 0.0, 0.009, 0.0504, 0.0324, 0.0504, 0.0885, 0.1745, 0.1469, 0.1135, 0.151, 0.1241, 0.0444, 0.0524, 0.0416, 0.0812, 0.1251, 0.1075, 0.115, 0.1558, 0.1641, 0.1927, 0.1249, 0.1114, 0.0988, 0.0988, 0.0682, 0.0217, 0.0197, 0.0065, 0.0565, 0.0703, 0.0983, 0.0662, 0.0372, 0.0538, 0.0238, 0.0472, 0.0045, -0.022, -0.0549, -0.0996, -0.1093, -0.1043, -0.1043, -0.1213, -0.1325, -0.1712, -0.1477, -0.1775, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2046603397533511746", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-04-21T14:54:08+00:00", "symbol": "energy stocks", "kind": "sector", "geography": "global", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy stocks remain the most asymmetric trade in this market", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "weeks", "summary": "Long oil and energy stocks: physical crude at $144 vs paper $90 gap must close violently as Hormuz blockage is unsolvable; energy stocks most asymmetric trade.", "resolved_tickers": ["IXC"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "IXC tracks global energy stocks", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is the single most important number in global markets right now:\n\nPaper oil settled at $90 on Friday.\n\nPhysical oil traded at $144 two weeks ago.\n\nLet me break this down for you...\n\nDated Brent (the benchmark for actual barrels changing hands in the real world) hit $144.42 on April 7. That's the highest physical crude price since S&P Global Platts started publishing it in 1987. Higher than 2008.\n\nMorgan Stanley's analysts said buyers are paying \"an exceptional premium for secure, refinery-usable barrels available now.\"\n\nMeanwhile, Brent futures have been trading between $84 and $99, swinging 15% in 48 hours based on whatever Iran's foreign minister says on any given morning.\n\nThe physical market is pricing a war. The paper market is pricing a peace deal.\n\nOne of them is WRONG.\n\nAnd here's why the PHYSICAL market is right:\n\n230 loaded oil tankers are trapped inside the Persian Gulf. ADNOC's CEO confirmed it. \n\nStrait of Hormuz traffic has dropped over 90%. The ceasefire expires Wednesday and peace talks collapsed in Pakistan over the weekend.\n\n15 to 20 million barrels per day normally move through Hormuz. The only bypass - Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's ADCOP - together handle roughly 9 million. You cannot close a gap that large with infrastructure that doesn't exist.\n\nBut here's what REALLY caught my attention...\n\nContainers are flowing. Oil is not.\n\nMaersk published five operational updates in two weeks building an entirely new shipping map. Containers move from the UAE to Khor Fakkan, get trucked through Oman to Sohar and Salalah, shipped to Jeddah, and reconnected to global routes. Saudi Arabia recorded 94,000 outbound trucks to Gulf land borders in 3 weeks. India's Jawaharlal Nehru Port saw container arrivals surge over 700% from February.\n\n34,000 ships rerouted in 4 weeks.\n\nAnything that fits on a truck has already found a workaround.\n\nBut crude oil has no workaround.\n\nYou cannot load 15 million barrels per day onto trucks. There is no land bridge for hydrocarbons. \n\nThe pipelines are maxed. The tankers are parked.\n\nAnd it doesn't stop at oil:\n\nQatarEnergy declared force majeure on LNG contracts with China, Italy, Belgium, and South Korea after Iranian missiles hit the Ras Laffan complex in March. They've extended it through mid-June. \n\nJapan (sourcing 70% of its Middle East crude through Hormuz) is releasing strategic reserves.\n\nMaersk builds a new map in two weeks. QatarEnergy calls its lawyers.\n\nThat's two completely different wars being fought at the same time - one the global supply chain has already solved, and one it cannot.\n\nAnd paper oil prices are trading like this distinction doesn't exist.\n\nThe EIA's base case has Brent peaking at $115 this quarter - assuming the conflict ends in April. Iran's parliament is now drafting a permanent law banning ships from \"hostile\" nations and imposing tolls on everyone else.\n\nEnergy stocks remain the most asymmetric trade in this market.\n\nWhen paper catches up to physical (and 45 years of experience tells me it always does) the repricing will be VIOLENT.\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today:\n\nhttps://t.co/7h8B0bTqF2", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01161486429128733, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01161486429128733, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01820490140668929, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01820490140668929, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006590037115401959, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01086549017006, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01086549017006, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0007387780749410489, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0007387780749410489, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01012671209511895, "ret_p1w": 0.027913063330732513, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.027913063330732513, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.017104707172361344, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.017104707172361344, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "bench_c_p1w": 0.010808356158371168, "ret_p1m": 0.05620088615336827, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.05620088615336827, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0034086268070530057, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0034086268070530057, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "bench_c_p1m": 0.05279225934631526, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.05620088615336827, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0034086268070530057, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0034086268070530057, "price_path": [-0.1568, -0.1456, -0.1444, -0.1319, -0.124, -0.1126, -0.112, -0.1276, -0.1002, -0.0858, -0.1012, -0.0837, -0.0732, -0.0749, -0.0508, -0.0689, -0.0629, -0.0629, -0.0732, -0.0562, -0.0465, -0.0523, -0.0466, -0.0453, -0.0451, -0.0453, -0.0294, -0.0096, -0.021, -0.0264, -0.0214, -0.0142, -0.015, -0.0244, -0.0015, 0.0073, 0.0122, 0.0185, 0.0318, 0.033, 0.0489, 0.0423, 0.0472, 0.0652, 0.0628, 0.0753, 0.0914, 0.0877, 0.0792, 0.0457, 0.0581, 0.0581, 0.0641, 0.0691, 0.0345, 0.0285, 0.0262, 0.0311, 0.0099, 0.0024, 0.0189, -0.0141, -0.0116, 0.0, 0.0109, 0.0195, 0.0165, 0.0148, 0.0279, 0.0495, 0.0643, 0.05, 0.0571, 0.0588, 0.0202, -0.0004, -0.006, 0.0187, 0.0272, 0.0266, 0.0318, 0.0506, 0.0716, 0.0794, 0.0562, 0.0502, 0.0519, 0.0519, 0.0253, 0.0077, 0.0073, -0.0013, 0.0155, 0.0296, 0.0386, 0.0378, 0.0163, 0.0264, 0.0105, 0.0232, 0.0118, 0.0146, -0.0195, -0.0242, -0.039, -0.0539, -0.0539, -0.0436, -0.0394, -0.0594, -0.0531, -0.0592, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2028197000978522331", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-01T19:53:41+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "That is basically $OPEN That is why I went short at $7.50 That is why I think fair value is $1.50, EVEN IF THE TURNAROUND IS SUCCESSFUL!!!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN with $1.50 fair value target; argues 50x earnings vs 20x peers means losses even if turnaround succeeds.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You would agree that the more you overpay for an asset, the lower the return. \n\nFor example, if you pay 50x earnings for a stock when comparable valuations imply a fair price of only 20 earnings, then the odds are high that you will lose money.\n\nThat is basically $OPEN\n\nThat is why I went short at $7.50\n\nThat is why I think fair value is $1.50,\n\nEVEN IF THE TURNAROUND IS SUCCESSFUL!!!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @Stocktwits @open_army_japan @iamjohnbaiano @CapitanSteveo @APompliano @ericjackson @nejatian @philrosenn @rabois @natbrunell @andrewrsorkin If it doubles revenue, it’s not the same business.\n\nOperating leverage flips the math margins expand, book grows, and “expensive” compresses fast.\n\nCalling checkmate before the model scales is premature.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "VolaarRide", "ret_m1d": 0.07326730130385206, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07326730130385206, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07383550125516714, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07508874688951028, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0005681999513150737, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018214455856582212, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.015841662875575313, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.015841662875575313, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.007027411963089647, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010832643412216458, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008814250912485666, "bench_c_p1d": -0.005009019463358855, "ret_p1w": 0.005940540958044194, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.005940540958044194, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0177561677618846, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02734301172031428, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011815626803840407, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021402470762270087, "ret_p1m": -0.07326739572704821, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07326739572704821, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.023347686599652584, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.009160802438029969, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04991970912739563, "bench_c_p1m": -0.06410659328901824, "ret_p3m": 0.003960392113094846, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.003960392113094846, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09843306525577278, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.013992710558485166, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10239345736886762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.017953102671580012, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07326739572704821, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.023347686599652584, "alpha_c_stated": 0.009160802438029969, "price_path": [0.3743, 0.501, 0.4158, 0.396, 0.4673, 0.3861, 0.396, 0.299, 0.2812, 0.3327, 0.2119, 0.2436, 0.2594, 0.2713, 0.2416, 0.2436, 0.2436, 0.1901, 0.1545, 0.1564, 0.1545, 0.1545, 0.202, 0.2515, 0.3723, 0.2119, 0.2733, 0.4436, 0.3901, 0.3406, 0.3149, 0.2475, 0.3208, 0.3208, 0.2653, 0.2832, 0.2713, 0.1901, 0.1624, 0.1505, 0.1406, 0.105, 0.0198, -0.0455, 0.0158, -0.0099, -0.0693, -0.0337, -0.0218, -0.0713, -0.0574, -0.1327, -0.1198, -0.1198, -0.1426, -0.0832, -0.0792, -0.0099, -0.0535, 0.0119, -0.0139, 0.0713, 0.0733, 0.0, -0.0158, -0.0337, 0.0257, -0.0099, 0.0059, -0.0079, 0.0436, -0.0416, -0.0198, 0.0257, 0.101, 0.0455, 0.0178, -0.0277, 0.0317, 0.0257, 0.0099, -0.0297, -0.0495, -0.1228, -0.0733, -0.095, -0.0614, -0.0614, -0.0871, -0.099, -0.0812, -0.1465, -0.1446, -0.1366, -0.1069, -0.0455, 0.0436, 0.0475, 0.0594, 0.0792, 0.0752, 0.0337, 0.0911, 0.0673, 0.0851, 0.105, 0.0653, 0.0772, 0.0158, 0.0356, 0.0812, 0.0535, -0.0079, -0.0396, -0.0673, -0.0931, -0.1149, -0.1327, -0.1525, -0.1485, -0.1287, -0.095, -0.103, -0.103, -0.1129, -0.0594, 0.004, -0.002, 0.0515, 0.0713, -0.0356, -0.0198, -0.1248, -0.1465, -0.1406, -0.1129, -0.1149, -0.1208, -0.0871, -0.0594, -0.1188, -0.1149, -0.1149, -0.1525, -0.1683, -0.1525, -0.1485, -0.1347, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2027392373907390464", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-27T14:36:23+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "flipped_to_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "he is bullish, I am bearish", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author is bearish on BTC, in contrast to Larry's bullish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Thanks Thomas. I hope so too. \n\nBut sadly I do not think that will be the case. Larry has become insanely emotional about his $BTC position and says he wishes to have nothing to do with me. \n\nI have done nothing to deserve such vitriol. \n\nInstead, I have merely expressed my opinion on $BTC - he is bullish, I am bearish. I may well be wrong - it wouldn’t be the first time, nor will it be the last. \n\nBut regardless, that is no  reason for Larry to act out with such vicious hate. \n\nThis reminds me of partisan identity politics.\n\nIt is uncalled for. \n\nIt is ugly.\n\nIt is just wrong.\n\nI know Larry is a good guy.\n\nI know he is better than this.\n\nI know he was not raised this way.\n\nThe matter is out of my hands.\n\nThis is all on him.\n\nPerhaps one day Larry will calm down and realize that it is emotions, not anything I have said or done, that is the real problem here.\n\nI will continue to conduct myself with civility and respect in my discourse with Larry. I only ask that Larry would do likewise.\n\nI am only responsible for my words and behavior, not his.\n\nI wish @LawrenceLepard well.\n\n@QTRResearch", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 George, I hope you and Larry patch things up.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02386055992799596, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02386055992799596, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01903544917290234, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01903544917290234, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00482511075509362, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00482511075509362, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.043927986557364296, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.043927986557364296, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04335946357131637, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04335946357131637, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0005685229860479257, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0005685229860479257, "ret_p1w": 0.03422334270538974, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03422334270538974, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.05406332799320268, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05406332799320268, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019839985287812945, "bench_c_p1w": -0.019839985287812945, "ret_p1m": 0.012289410366814524, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.012289410366814524, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08852095450154196, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08852095450154196, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07623154413472744, "bench_c_p1m": -0.07623154413472744, "ret_p3m": 0.1284559112140944, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1284559112140944, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.031487231767944435, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.031487231767944435, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09696867944614995, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09696867944614995, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.012289410366814524, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08852095450154196, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08852095450154196, "price_path": [0.3866, 0.4196, 0.3986, 0.3568, 0.3758, 0.4069, 0.3968, 0.4042, 0.3702, 0.3117, 0.3334, 0.3076, 0.2972, 0.3373, 0.3432, 0.3268, 0.3298, 0.3241, 0.3251, 0.3226, 0.3423, 0.3283, 0.3468, 0.3652, 0.425, 0.4227, 0.3859, 0.3817, 0.3739, 0.3842, 0.4469, 0.4713, 0.4503, 0.4499, 0.4048, 0.3404, 0.3566, 0.3579, 0.3586, 0.3398, 0.3525, 0.3537, 0.2835, 0.277, 0.1944, 0.148, 0.1083, -0.0483, 0.0709, 0.0643, 0.0442, 0.0169, 0.0052, 0.0452, 0.0449, 0.0245, 0.0082, 0.0163, 0.0322, -0.0192, -0.0273, 0.0315, 0.0239, 0.0, 0.0439, 0.0366, 0.1037, 0.0753, 0.0342, 0.0383, 0.0614, 0.0656, 0.07, 0.0772, 0.1363, 0.122, 0.0814, 0.0612, 0.0704, 0.0764, 0.0704, 0.0824, 0.0442, 0.0069, 0.0123, 0.0357, 0.0333, 0.0153, 0.0159, 0.0452, 0.092, 0.0796, 0.0893, 0.1077, 0.1306, 0.126, 0.1354, 0.1407, 0.1707, 0.1516, 0.1589, 0.187, 0.188, 0.1757, 0.1743, 0.1589, 0.1502, 0.1582, 0.1867, 0.2117, 0.2284, 0.236, 0.2144, 0.2171, 0.2405, 0.2215, 0.2033, 0.2303, 0.2001, 0.1681, 0.165, 0.1757, 0.1769, 0.1458, 0.173, 0.1509, 0.1285, 0.1162, 0.1137, 0.0825, 0.0125, -0.0283, -0.0316, -0.0753, -0.0424, -0.0643, -0.0673, -0.0352, -0.0355, 0.0062, -0.0043, -0.0222, -0.0453, -0.0355, -0.0293, -0.0488, -0.0742, -0.0935, -0.089, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2047259352847790424", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-23T10:20:40+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is the biggest bubble at scale in stock market history. Car crash in progress. Fair value is perhaps $50. Epic wealth destruction coming soon to a theater near you.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: earnings collapsed 80%, delivery declines, robotaxi hype undelivered, 15x revenue valuation absurd; fair value ~$50.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The $TSLA earnings call and guidance were an epic disaster.\n\nEarnings estimates have collapsed by 80% over the last three years.\n\nAuto deliveries will decline for a third consecutive year in 2026.\n\nRobotaxis have not received the required state government approvals as Tesla has been unable to achieve level four FSD.\n\nOn May 28 the new Texas DMV laws will take effect, putting an end to the loophole by which $TSLA has put a few robotaxis on the road in a publicity stunt. It will be many years before paid robotaxi rides are able to contribute any significant revenue, by which time I expect self driving cars will be commoditized and widely available. \n\nTesla derives 87% of revenues from autos and auto related services.\n(Oh, but it’s not an auto company;))\n15x revenues and a market cap of $1.5t more than adequately reflects any possible contributions from unproven fnascent businesses like cybercabs and Optimus.\n\nOver the last four years $TSLA the stock is flat and has massively underperformed the market.\n\n$TSLA is the biggest bubble at scale in stock market history. \n\nCar crash in progress. Fair value is perhaps $50.\n\nEpic wealth destruction coming soon to a theater near you.\n\nThank you for attention to this matter. @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @RealJimChanos @TeslaBoomerMama @DivesTech @munster_gene @garyblack00", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03689930562955901, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03689930562955901, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03300344593924298, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.026792256588431984, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003895859690316028, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010107049041127025, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0069035282132037246, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0069035282132037246, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0008457810240278807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0011651778525969547, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007749309237231605, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00806870606580068, "ret_p1w": 0.021165588237912036, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.021165588237912036, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0067539132350464826, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.015984675397364256, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014411675002865554, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00518091284054778, "ret_p1m": 0.13991760776550355, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1276872252746062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.052494860901207696, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012230382490897362, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1276872252746062, "price_path": [0.1645, 0.153, 0.1545, 0.1146, 0.1517, 0.1287, 0.1291, 0.0864, 0.0629, 0.1, 0.1167, 0.1378, 0.146, 0.116, 0.117, 0.117, 0.0988, 0.1006, 0.1017, 0.1019, 0.0699, 0.0954, 0.1169, 0.0933, 0.077, 0.0792, 0.0501, 0.0862, 0.0852, 0.0616, 0.0668, 0.0683, 0.0912, 0.057, 0.0468, 0.0584, 0.0684, 0.051, 0.0176, -0.0154, 0.0191, 0.0249, 0.0327, -0.0043, -0.0318, -0.0493, -0.0053, 0.0202, -0.0351, -0.0351, -0.0559, -0.0724, -0.0815, -0.0752, -0.0663, -0.057, -0.0255, 0.0488, 0.0406, 0.072, 0.0503, 0.034, 0.0369, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0132, 0.0062, -0.0025, 0.0212, 0.0458, 0.0503, 0.0419, 0.0669, 0.1019, 0.1462, 0.1907, 0.1598, 0.1915, 0.1862, 0.1298, 0.0971, 0.0813, 0.1165, 0.1181, 0.1399, 0.1399, 0.1602, 0.1783, 0.183, 0.1661, 0.1128, 0.1338, 0.1337, 0.1197, 0.0462, 0.0943, 0.0614, 0.0211, 0.068, 0.0875, 0.1002, 0.0828, 0.0606, 0.0716, 0.0716, 0.0838, 0.0211, 0.0048, 0.0037, 0.016, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2045268668901175391", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-17T22:30:24+00:00", "symbol": "BIRD", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Allbirds-to-NewBird-AI is the same warning but louder", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short Allbirds/NewBird AI as a fraudulent AI pivot with no real business; long gold and silver as real-value alternatives.", "resolved_tickers": ["BIRD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Apparel Retail'", "bench_c_industry": "Apparel Retail", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This shoe company just became an AI infrastructure provider overnight.\n\nAnd the stock went up almost 600%.\n\nLet me explain why this is so ridiculous and concerning:\n\nAllbirds - the wool sneaker brand once worshipped by Silicon Valley - announced it is selling its shoe business for $39 million and rebranding itself as \"NewBird AI.\"\n\nA \"fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service and AI-native cloud solutions provider.\"\n\nThose are their words. Not mine.\n\nA company with ZERO experience in semiconductors.\n\nZERO experience in data centers.\n\nZERO experience in cloud infrastructure.\n\nZERO customers.\n\nZERO GPUs on hand.\n\nThe stock closed Tuesday at $2.49. It opened Wednesday and shot up to nearly $22. A 582% move in one session.\n\nThe funding? A $50 million convertible from an unnamed institutional investor. Subject to shareholder approval on May 18.\n\nThat's it. That's literally the entire transformation.\n\nSell the shoes for $39 million. Take $50 million from somebody willing to hand it over. Add \"AI\" to the name. Watch retail traders lose their minds.\n\nThis reminds me of an older story:\n\nIn December 2017, a beverage company called Long Island Iced Tea Corp. announced it was changing its name to \"Long Blockchain Corp.\" and pivoting to crypto.\n\nThe stock jumped nearly 300% in a single day. Trading volume up 1,000%.\n\nBut they had no blockchain business. No blockchain employees. No blockchain anything.\n\n14 months later, NASDAQ delisted them. The SEC eventually charged 3 people with insider trading on the name change itself.\n\nThe company never filed another financial report. The blockchain business never existed.\n\nIt’s the same playbook, only with a different buzzword.\n\nAnd here is what should worry every serious investor:\n\nAllbirds once traded above $600 a share. It was valued at roughly $4 billion in 2021.\n\nThe shoe business they just sold for $39 million.\n\nThat is a 99% wipeout of real operating value, from a real company selling real products.\n\nBut the moment they stapled \"AI\" to the shell, retail traders bid the market cap up by $127 million in a single day.\n\nBuying what, exactly?\n\nA press release. A $50 million IOU. A NAME change.\n\nWhen a dying retailer can create 9 figures of \"value\" by announcing it will buy GPUs it does not own, from suppliers it has no relationships with, to serve customers it does not have - you are no longer looking at a market.\n\nHyperscalers are spending $380 billion a year on real AI infrastructure and most of the buyers still cannot measure a return. And now we are pricing a wool sock company as a neocloud.\n\nThis is how late-cycle tops feel from the inside. Not with a crash. With absurdity.\n\nLong Blockchain Corp. was not a business. It was a warning.\n\nAllbirds-to-NewBird-AI is the same warning but louder.\n\nOwn real cash flow. Own gold. Own silver. Own companies that make things people actually buy.\n\nNot stupid hype.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.019963725761355744, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.019963725761355744, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.021967467829750897, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.02446859825945935, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0020037420683951535, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004504872498103607, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.22867516815648703, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.22867516815648703, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.22212827530794754, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.22116704732631454, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.006546892848539487, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007508120830172493, "ret_p1w": -0.392014561619647, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.392014561619647, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.4011155413439219, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.37507948585127315, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009100979724274927, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01693507576837383, "ret_p1m": -0.636116146795914, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.636116146795914, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.6714052159671935, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.5957390634964607, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0352890691712795, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04037708329945333, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.636116146795914, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.6714052159671935, "alpha_c_stated": 0.5957390634964607, "price_path": [-0.6289, -0.6098, -0.6243, -0.6352, -0.6443, -0.6397, -0.6388, -0.6452, -0.6506, -0.677, -0.6779, -0.6819, -0.6815, -0.6978, -0.6969, -0.7132, -0.7232, -0.7278, -0.7278, -0.7223, -0.7232, -0.7178, -0.7142, -0.7359, -0.7532, -0.7441, -0.7296, -0.7423, -0.7414, -0.7495, -0.7468, -0.7632, -0.775, -0.7178, -0.6706, -0.7078, -0.7223, -0.7196, -0.7178, -0.7042, -0.716, -0.7105, -0.716, -0.7087, -0.6969, -0.676, -0.6851, -0.7114, -0.7296, -0.7269, -0.7623, -0.7586, -0.7586, -0.765, -0.7713, -0.7722, -0.7686, -0.7831, -0.7704, -0.774, 0.5417, -0.01, -0.02, 0.0, -0.2287, -0.235, -0.2731, -0.363, -0.392, -0.3684, -0.3884, -0.4102, -0.4138, -0.4682, -0.49, -0.4483, -0.4356, -0.4918, -0.5154, -0.5336, -0.5799, -0.5907, -0.5998, -0.6352, -0.6361, -0.6379, -0.6225, -0.6515, -0.6515, -0.6525, -0.6416, -0.6125, -0.6261, -0.6207, -0.598, -0.6279, -0.6252, -0.6525, -0.6325, -0.6434, -0.6579, -0.6479, -0.6679, -0.6515, -0.6425, -0.5027, -0.4583, -0.4583, -0.5, -0.5354, -0.5581, -0.6116, -0.5998, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2045268668901175391", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-04-17T22:30:24+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Own gold", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short Allbirds/NewBird AI as a fraudulent AI pivot with no real business; long gold and silver as real-value alternatives.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This shoe company just became an AI infrastructure provider overnight.\n\nAnd the stock went up almost 600%.\n\nLet me explain why this is so ridiculous and concerning:\n\nAllbirds - the wool sneaker brand once worshipped by Silicon Valley - announced it is selling its shoe business for $39 million and rebranding itself as \"NewBird AI.\"\n\nA \"fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service and AI-native cloud solutions provider.\"\n\nThose are their words. Not mine.\n\nA company with ZERO experience in semiconductors.\n\nZERO experience in data centers.\n\nZERO experience in cloud infrastructure.\n\nZERO customers.\n\nZERO GPUs on hand.\n\nThe stock closed Tuesday at $2.49. It opened Wednesday and shot up to nearly $22. A 582% move in one session.\n\nThe funding? A $50 million convertible from an unnamed institutional investor. Subject to shareholder approval on May 18.\n\nThat's it. That's literally the entire transformation.\n\nSell the shoes for $39 million. Take $50 million from somebody willing to hand it over. Add \"AI\" to the name. Watch retail traders lose their minds.\n\nThis reminds me of an older story:\n\nIn December 2017, a beverage company called Long Island Iced Tea Corp. announced it was changing its name to \"Long Blockchain Corp.\" and pivoting to crypto.\n\nThe stock jumped nearly 300% in a single day. Trading volume up 1,000%.\n\nBut they had no blockchain business. No blockchain employees. No blockchain anything.\n\n14 months later, NASDAQ delisted them. The SEC eventually charged 3 people with insider trading on the name change itself.\n\nThe company never filed another financial report. The blockchain business never existed.\n\nIt’s the same playbook, only with a different buzzword.\n\nAnd here is what should worry every serious investor:\n\nAllbirds once traded above $600 a share. It was valued at roughly $4 billion in 2021.\n\nThe shoe business they just sold for $39 million.\n\nThat is a 99% wipeout of real operating value, from a real company selling real products.\n\nBut the moment they stapled \"AI\" to the shell, retail traders bid the market cap up by $127 million in a single day.\n\nBuying what, exactly?\n\nA press release. A $50 million IOU. A NAME change.\n\nWhen a dying retailer can create 9 figures of \"value\" by announcing it will buy GPUs it does not own, from suppliers it has no relationships with, to serve customers it does not have - you are no longer looking at a market.\n\nHyperscalers are spending $380 billion a year on real AI infrastructure and most of the buyers still cannot measure a return. And now we are pricing a wool sock company as a neocloud.\n\nThis is how late-cycle tops feel from the inside. Not with a crash. With absurdity.\n\nLong Blockchain Corp. was not a business. It was a warning.\n\nAllbirds-to-NewBird-AI is the same warning but louder.\n\nOwn real cash flow. Own gold. Own silver. Own companies that make things people actually buy.\n\nNot stupid hype.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.008686005948335795, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.008686005948335795, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.006682263879940642, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.006682263879940642, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0020037420683951535, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0020037420683951535, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.028320000717914517, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.028320000717914517, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.02177310786937503, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.02177310786937503, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.006546892848539487, "bench_c_p1d": -0.006546892848539487, "ret_p1w": -0.027596149631326727, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.027596149631326727, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.036697129355601654, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.036697129355601654, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009100979724274927, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009100979724274927, "ret_p1m": -0.06919404779860838, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.06919404779860838, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10448311696988788, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10448311696988788, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0352890691712795, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0352890691712795, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.06919404779860838, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.10448311696988788, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10448311696988788, "price_path": [0.0034, 0.0219, 0.036, 0.0511, 0.0769, 0.1187, 0.1217, 0.0065, -0.0338, 0.0276, 0.0269, -0.0005, 0.0302, 0.0564, 0.0459, 0.0578, 0.021, 0.0464, 0.0464, 0.0138, 0.0366, 0.0395, 0.06, 0.0886, 0.0736, 0.0709, 0.0801, 0.0942, 0.1084, 0.0589, 0.0672, 0.0544, 0.0711, 0.0689, 0.0809, 0.0772, 0.0561, 0.0424, 0.0415, 0.0389, 0.006, -0.0355, -0.0649, -0.0861, -0.0859, -0.0584, -0.0938, -0.062, -0.0622, -0.0267, -0.0097, -0.0287, -0.0287, -0.0327, -0.0233, -0.0171, -0.0095, -0.0112, -0.0152, 0.0068, -0.0037, -0.0045, 0.0087, 0.0, -0.0283, -0.0154, -0.025, -0.02, -0.0276, -0.0456, -0.0558, -0.0417, -0.0428, -0.0619, -0.0539, -0.0252, -0.0235, -0.0188, -0.0168, -0.0207, -0.0262, -0.0337, -0.0561, -0.0535, -0.0692, -0.0558, -0.0568, -0.0639, -0.0639, -0.0635, -0.076, -0.0663, -0.0565, -0.0697, -0.0682, -0.0774, -0.0697, -0.1037, -0.1014, -0.1161, -0.1527, -0.1262, -0.1257, -0.103, -0.1006, -0.121, -0.1243, -0.1243, -0.1301, -0.1465, -0.1723, -0.1643, -0.1549, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2045268668901175391", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-04-17T22:30:24+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Own silver", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short Allbirds/NewBird AI as a fraudulent AI pivot with no real business; long gold and silver as real-value alternatives.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This shoe company just became an AI infrastructure provider overnight.\n\nAnd the stock went up almost 600%.\n\nLet me explain why this is so ridiculous and concerning:\n\nAllbirds - the wool sneaker brand once worshipped by Silicon Valley - announced it is selling its shoe business for $39 million and rebranding itself as \"NewBird AI.\"\n\nA \"fully integrated GPU-as-a-Service and AI-native cloud solutions provider.\"\n\nThose are their words. Not mine.\n\nA company with ZERO experience in semiconductors.\n\nZERO experience in data centers.\n\nZERO experience in cloud infrastructure.\n\nZERO customers.\n\nZERO GPUs on hand.\n\nThe stock closed Tuesday at $2.49. It opened Wednesday and shot up to nearly $22. A 582% move in one session.\n\nThe funding? A $50 million convertible from an unnamed institutional investor. Subject to shareholder approval on May 18.\n\nThat's it. That's literally the entire transformation.\n\nSell the shoes for $39 million. Take $50 million from somebody willing to hand it over. Add \"AI\" to the name. Watch retail traders lose their minds.\n\nThis reminds me of an older story:\n\nIn December 2017, a beverage company called Long Island Iced Tea Corp. announced it was changing its name to \"Long Blockchain Corp.\" and pivoting to crypto.\n\nThe stock jumped nearly 300% in a single day. Trading volume up 1,000%.\n\nBut they had no blockchain business. No blockchain employees. No blockchain anything.\n\n14 months later, NASDAQ delisted them. The SEC eventually charged 3 people with insider trading on the name change itself.\n\nThe company never filed another financial report. The blockchain business never existed.\n\nIt’s the same playbook, only with a different buzzword.\n\nAnd here is what should worry every serious investor:\n\nAllbirds once traded above $600 a share. It was valued at roughly $4 billion in 2021.\n\nThe shoe business they just sold for $39 million.\n\nThat is a 99% wipeout of real operating value, from a real company selling real products.\n\nBut the moment they stapled \"AI\" to the shell, retail traders bid the market cap up by $127 million in a single day.\n\nBuying what, exactly?\n\nA press release. A $50 million IOU. A NAME change.\n\nWhen a dying retailer can create 9 figures of \"value\" by announcing it will buy GPUs it does not own, from suppliers it has no relationships with, to serve customers it does not have - you are no longer looking at a market.\n\nHyperscalers are spending $380 billion a year on real AI infrastructure and most of the buyers still cannot measure a return. And now we are pricing a wool sock company as a neocloud.\n\nThis is how late-cycle tops feel from the inside. Not with a crash. With absurdity.\n\nLong Blockchain Corp. was not a business. It was a warning.\n\nAllbirds-to-NewBird-AI is the same warning but louder.\n\nOwn real cash flow. Own gold. Own silver. Own companies that make things people actually buy.\n\nNot stupid hype.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.020512760862634316, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.020512760862634316, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.018509018794239163, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.018509018794239163, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0020037420683951535, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0020037420683951535, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05072770041171237, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05072770041171237, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.044180807563172886, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.044180807563172886, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.006546892848539487, "bench_c_p1d": -0.006546892848539487, "ret_p1w": -0.05294524759578911, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05294524759578911, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.06204622732006404, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06204622732006404, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009100979724274927, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009100979724274927, "ret_p1m": -0.07276507122618592, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07276507122618592, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10805414039746541, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10805414039746541, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0352890691712795, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0352890691712795, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07276507122618592, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.10805414039746541, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10805414039746541, "price_path": [0.1637, 0.2076, 0.2877, 0.363, 0.408, 0.4636, 0.4632, 0.0456, 0.004, 0.0667, 0.0974, -0.0757, -0.0272, 0.0539, 0.0175, 0.0611, -0.0613, -0.0337, -0.0337, -0.0801, -0.0286, -0.0158, 0.062, 0.1167, 0.096, 0.1094, 0.115, 0.178, 0.1306, 0.0351, 0.0442, 0.0294, 0.0525, 0.0847, 0.11, 0.0798, 0.06, 0.0075, 0.0148, -0.0068, -0.0478, -0.0897, -0.1473, -0.1342, -0.1275, -0.0962, -0.1577, -0.1207, -0.1196, -0.0556, -0.0556, -0.0881, -0.0881, -0.084, -0.0861, -0.0649, -0.0521, -0.0426, -0.0536, -0.0015, -0.0043, -0.0126, 0.0205, 0.0, -0.0507, -0.0247, -0.0523, -0.0466, -0.0529, -0.0825, -0.1013, -0.0761, -0.0535, -0.0861, -0.0865, -0.028, -0.0076, 0.0119, 0.0811, 0.0887, 0.0998, 0.0466, -0.0431, -0.0306, -0.0728, -0.0474, -0.0374, -0.0525, -0.0525, -0.0337, -0.0644, -0.0525, -0.0529, -0.0621, -0.0577, -0.0823, -0.0717, -0.1466, -0.1465, -0.1821, -0.2008, -0.157, -0.1505, -0.1203, -0.1214, -0.1599, -0.1752, -0.1752, -0.1835, -0.2276, -0.2823, -0.2743, -0.2615, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2016513087122157629", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-28T14:05:59+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SHORT $OPEN", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN (Opendoor Technologies).", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Akhiles82130535 @BitcoinAIGuy @mikealfred SHORT $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@BitcoinAIGuy What about $OPEN @mikealfred", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Akhiles82130535", "ret_m1d": 0.008680505540086036, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.008680505540086036, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.008579830825383272, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0011114417774487073, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010067471470276423, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009791947317534744, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03125005174014095, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03125005174014095, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.029265674585307155, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04397949790188027, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.001984377154833794, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012729446161739322, "ret_p1w": -0.13194447893787176, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.13194447893787176, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1186720045430869, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.1468772151931511, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01327247439478485, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014932736255279355, "ret_p1m": -0.06076395270172941, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06076395270172941, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.051963517956370664, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.12881785853201255, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.008800434745358743, "bench_c_p1m": 0.06805390583028315, "ret_p3m": -0.06423617147460892, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.06423617147460892, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09544489186369165, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.13601868560376507, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.031208720389082734, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07178251412915615, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06076395270172941, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.051963517956370664, "alpha_c_stated": 0.12881785853201255, "price_path": [0.349, 0.3177, 0.2014, 0.2552, 0.1389, 0.1389, 0.3837, 0.4722, 0.6267, 0.4861, 0.4097, 0.3611, 0.3056, 0.1615, 0.0694, 0.1719, 0.3351, 0.3437, 0.3507, 0.3507, 0.3368, 0.2396, 0.2135, 0.2049, 0.316, 0.2413, 0.224, 0.2865, 0.2153, 0.224, 0.1389, 0.1233, 0.1684, 0.0625, 0.0903, 0.1042, 0.1146, 0.0885, 0.0903, 0.0903, 0.0434, 0.0122, 0.0139, 0.0122, 0.0122, 0.0538, 0.0972, 0.2031, 0.0625, 0.1163, 0.2656, 0.2187, 0.1753, 0.1528, 0.0937, 0.158, 0.158, 0.1094, 0.125, 0.1146, 0.0434, 0.0191, 0.0087, 0.0, -0.0313, -0.1059, -0.1632, -0.1094, -0.1319, -0.184, -0.1528, -0.1424, -0.1858, -0.1736, -0.2396, -0.2283, -0.2283, -0.2483, -0.1962, -0.1927, -0.1319, -0.1701, -0.1128, -0.1354, -0.0608, -0.059, -0.1233, -0.1372, -0.1528, -0.1007, -0.1319, -0.1181, -0.1302, -0.0851, -0.1597, -0.1406, -0.1007, -0.0347, -0.0833, -0.1076, -0.1476, -0.0955, -0.1007, -0.1146, -0.1493, -0.1667, -0.2309, -0.1875, -0.2066, -0.1771, -0.1771, -0.1997, -0.2101, -0.1944, -0.2517, -0.25, -0.2431, -0.217, -0.1632, -0.0851, -0.0816, -0.0712, -0.0538, -0.0573, -0.0938, -0.0434, -0.0642, -0.0486, -0.0313, -0.066, -0.0556, -0.1094, -0.092, -0.0521, -0.0764, -0.1302, -0.158, -0.1823, -0.2049, -0.224, -0.2396, -0.2569, -0.2535, -0.2361, -0.2066, -0.2135, -0.2135, -0.2222, -0.1753, -0.1198, -0.125, -0.0781, -0.0608, -0.1545, -0.1406, -0.2326, -0.2517, -0.2465, -0.2222, -0.224, -0.2292, -0.1997, -0.1753, -0.2274, -0.224, -0.224, -0.2569, -0.2708, -0.2569, -0.2535, -0.2413, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2014720638334709762", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-23T15:23:26+00:00", "symbol": "US utilities", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I'd rather own the companies collecting them", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long US utilities (esp. Dominion, Entergy) as picks-and-shovels AI power play; skeptical/bearish on Big Tech hyperscalers facing grid constraints.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLU"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLU is the primary US utilities sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "\"The limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power.\"\n\nThat was Elon Musk in a conversation with Larry Fink during his first-ever appearance at Davos.\n\nAnd it's the most honest thing anyone in Big Tech has said in a while.\n\nForget the hype about superintelligence and robots.\n\nForget the promises about productivity gains that CFOs still can't measure.\n\nThe bottleneck is power. And that bottleneck is very real.\n\nHere's why & how to position yourself to make the most out of this:\n\nWe're producing more chips than we can turn on.\n\nAI chip production is increasing exponentially. US electricity generation is growing 3-4% annually.\n\nThe math doesn't work.\n\nUS data center power demand is expected to hit 75.8 gigawatts in 2026, up from 61.8 gigawatts in 2025. By 2030, it could reach 134 gigawatts.\n\nThe largest US grid operator, PJM, expects to add 31 gigawatts of data center load over the next five years.\n\nBut only 28 gigawatts of new generation capacity is planned.\n\nThe deficit is already here.\n\nResidential electricity rates near data centers have jumped as much as 267% compared to five years ago. Regular Americans are subsidizing Silicon Valley's power consumption.\n\nWhether AI delivers on its big promises or not, the electricity bills are coming due right now.\n\nElon made another point that deserves attention:\n\nChina is solving the energy problem while America talks about AI miracles.\n\nHe noted China's solar deployment is \"tremendous.\"\n\nAnd that's an understatement.\n\nI verified the numbers. They're insane:\n\nChina installed 275 gigawatts of solar capacity in the first 11 months of 2025. That's more than the ENTIRE installed solar capacity of the United States.\n\nIn May 2025 alone, China added 93 gigawatts. Roughly 100 panels every second.\n\nFor the first time in history, a single country surpassed 1,000 gigawatts of total solar capacity.\n\nChina added more solar in one month than America has built in its entire history...\n\nBut this ISN'T about climate policy. It's about strategic positioning.\n\nChina understands something Wall Street is ignoring: whoever controls the energy infrastructure controls the next era of computing.\n\nWhile American investors chase the latest AI stock, China is building the power grid that will actually run the technology.\n\nMy take:\n\nThe data center buildout will fall short of expectations.\n\nBig Tech wants trillions in infrastructure. The grid can't deliver it. Not at this pace. Not with 3-4% annual electricity growth against exponential demand projections.\n\nSomething has to give.\n\nEither the buildout slows dramatically, or electricity prices spike to levels that destroy the economics of the entire AI story.\n\nThe AI trade has been built on the assumption that infrastructure will materialize to meet demand. That assumption is looking increasingly shaky.\n\nBUT the companies selling power to Big Tech win either way.\n\nScarcity means pricing power. Utilities don't need AI to cure cancer. They just need hyperscalers to keep signing power agreements. And they are.\n\nMicrosoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet spent ~$350B in 2025 on data centers. That money flows to utilities and grid infrastructure whether AI changes the world or not.\n\nUS utilities are forecasting a ~6% jump in capital expenditures to $228B in 2026. Cumulative utility capex is expected to surpass $1.1T through 2029.\n\nDominion Energy is investing $50B through 2029, projecting 5-7% annual earnings growth. Entergy plans $41B between 2026 and 2029, targeting more than 8% compound annual earnings growth.\n\nThese aren't speculative bets on AI changing everything...\n\nThey're regulated utilities with contracted demand and predictable cash flows.\n\nSo beware the AI story. \n\nThe productivity miracle remains unproven. The physical constraints are becoming impossible to ignore.\n\nBut the picks-and-shovels play? THAT'S where the smart money is looking.\n\nThe hyperscalers have to pay their electricity bills. I'd rather own the companies collecting them.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0035244511580885263, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0035244511580885263, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.003887054817955038, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.003887054817955038, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00036260365986651166, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00036260365986651166, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.007283708281065948, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007283708281065948, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.002205476519193228, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.002205476519193228, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00507823176187272, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00507823176187272, "ret_p1w": 0.016212329992760566, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.016212329992760566, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01223677658372524, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.01223677658372524, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003975553409035326, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003975553409035326, "ret_p1m": 0.09680445886081412, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.09680445886081412, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10672847501016447, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.10672847501016447, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.009924016149350345, "bench_c_p1m": -0.009924016149350345, "ret_p3m": 0.0616471479477414, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.0616471479477414, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.026938241322857603, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.026938241322857603, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.034708906624883795, "bench_c_p3m": 0.034708906624883795, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.051, 0.0506, 0.0462, 0.039, 0.0396, 0.0358, 0.0361, 0.0315, 0.0459, 0.0455, 0.0461, 0.0485, 0.0341, 0.035, 0.0443, 0.0404, 0.0316, 0.0264, 0.0279, 0.0396, 0.0356, 0.0494, 0.0494, 0.0568, 0.0321, 0.0247, 0.0215, 0.0194, 0.0098, -0.0037, -0.003, -0.0035, 0.0038, -0.0011, 0.008, 0.0038, -0.0028, 0.007, -0.0058, -0.0021, 0.0014, 0.0059, 0.0059, 0.0052, 0.007, 0.0094, 0.0031, 0.0031, 0.0146, 0.0033, 0.0082, -0.0162, -0.0134, -0.0012, 0.0005, 0.0068, 0.0143, 0.0247, 0.0195, 0.0195, 0.0094, 0.0108, 0.0035, 0.0, 0.0073, 0.0204, 0.0181, 0.0181, 0.0162, 0.0014, 0.016, 0.0122, 0.0127, 0.0186, 0.0216, 0.0385, 0.0477, 0.0632, 0.0926, 0.0926, 0.0898, 0.0717, 0.0834, 0.0886, 0.0968, 0.109, 0.1128, 0.1086, 0.1215, 0.113, 0.106, 0.1107, 0.102, 0.0982, 0.1008, 0.094, 0.0848, 0.0926, 0.1034, 0.1104, 0.1074, 0.098, 0.0935, 0.0491, 0.0595, 0.0669, 0.0706, 0.0725, 0.0787, 0.0865, 0.0858, 0.091, 0.0964, 0.0964, 0.0924, 0.0948, 0.1068, 0.1156, 0.1111, 0.0976, 0.0995, 0.0889, 0.0967, 0.0922, 0.0825, 0.0635, 0.0616, 0.0905, 0.0926, 0.0929, 0.0943, 0.0808, 0.1085, 0.1014, 0.0971, 0.0971, 0.0815, 0.0676, 0.0581, 0.068, 0.0692, 0.0569, 0.0624, 0.038, 0.0396, 0.0491, 0.0531, 0.0647, 0.073, 0.073, 0.0725, 0.068, 0.056, 0.051, 0.0198, 0.0387, 0.0342, 0.0396, 0.0493, 0.0297, 0.0406, 0.0411, 0.0422, 0.0536, 0.0586, 0.0661, 0.0519, 0.059, 0.059, 0.0649, 0.0732, 0.0844, 0.0918, 0.1001, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2014720638334709762", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-23T15:23:26+00:00", "symbol": "Dominion Energy", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Dominion Energy is investing $50B through 2029, projecting 5-7% annual earnings growth", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long US utilities (esp. Dominion, Entergy) as picks-and-shovels AI power play; skeptical/bearish on Big Tech hyperscalers facing grid constraints.", "resolved_tickers": ["D"], "resolution_method": "exchange_ticker", "resolution_reason": "Dominion Energy trades as D on NYSE", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Utilities - Regulated Electric", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "\"The limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power.\"\n\nThat was Elon Musk in a conversation with Larry Fink during his first-ever appearance at Davos.\n\nAnd it's the most honest thing anyone in Big Tech has said in a while.\n\nForget the hype about superintelligence and robots.\n\nForget the promises about productivity gains that CFOs still can't measure.\n\nThe bottleneck is power. And that bottleneck is very real.\n\nHere's why & how to position yourself to make the most out of this:\n\nWe're producing more chips than we can turn on.\n\nAI chip production is increasing exponentially. US electricity generation is growing 3-4% annually.\n\nThe math doesn't work.\n\nUS data center power demand is expected to hit 75.8 gigawatts in 2026, up from 61.8 gigawatts in 2025. By 2030, it could reach 134 gigawatts.\n\nThe largest US grid operator, PJM, expects to add 31 gigawatts of data center load over the next five years.\n\nBut only 28 gigawatts of new generation capacity is planned.\n\nThe deficit is already here.\n\nResidential electricity rates near data centers have jumped as much as 267% compared to five years ago. Regular Americans are subsidizing Silicon Valley's power consumption.\n\nWhether AI delivers on its big promises or not, the electricity bills are coming due right now.\n\nElon made another point that deserves attention:\n\nChina is solving the energy problem while America talks about AI miracles.\n\nHe noted China's solar deployment is \"tremendous.\"\n\nAnd that's an understatement.\n\nI verified the numbers. They're insane:\n\nChina installed 275 gigawatts of solar capacity in the first 11 months of 2025. That's more than the ENTIRE installed solar capacity of the United States.\n\nIn May 2025 alone, China added 93 gigawatts. Roughly 100 panels every second.\n\nFor the first time in history, a single country surpassed 1,000 gigawatts of total solar capacity.\n\nChina added more solar in one month than America has built in its entire history...\n\nBut this ISN'T about climate policy. It's about strategic positioning.\n\nChina understands something Wall Street is ignoring: whoever controls the energy infrastructure controls the next era of computing.\n\nWhile American investors chase the latest AI stock, China is building the power grid that will actually run the technology.\n\nMy take:\n\nThe data center buildout will fall short of expectations.\n\nBig Tech wants trillions in infrastructure. The grid can't deliver it. Not at this pace. Not with 3-4% annual electricity growth against exponential demand projections.\n\nSomething has to give.\n\nEither the buildout slows dramatically, or electricity prices spike to levels that destroy the economics of the entire AI story.\n\nThe AI trade has been built on the assumption that infrastructure will materialize to meet demand. That assumption is looking increasingly shaky.\n\nBUT the companies selling power to Big Tech win either way.\n\nScarcity means pricing power. Utilities don't need AI to cure cancer. They just need hyperscalers to keep signing power agreements. And they are.\n\nMicrosoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet spent ~$350B in 2025 on data centers. That money flows to utilities and grid infrastructure whether AI changes the world or not.\n\nUS utilities are forecasting a ~6% jump in capital expenditures to $228B in 2026. Cumulative utility capex is expected to surpass $1.1T through 2029.\n\nDominion Energy is investing $50B through 2029, projecting 5-7% annual earnings growth. Entergy plans $41B between 2026 and 2029, targeting more than 8% compound annual earnings growth.\n\nThese aren't speculative bets on AI changing everything...\n\nThey're regulated utilities with contracted demand and predictable cash flows.\n\nSo beware the AI story. \n\nThe productivity miracle remains unproven. The physical constraints are becoming impossible to ignore.\n\nBut the picks-and-shovels play? THAT'S where the smart money is looking.\n\nThe hyperscalers have to pay their electricity bills. I'd rather own the companies collecting them.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.005536995023120328, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.005536995023120328, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.00589959868298684, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.00589959868298684, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00036260365986651166, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00036260365986651166, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010738365094220992, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010738365094220992, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.005660133332348272, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.005660133332348272, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00507823176187272, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00507823176187272, "ret_p1w": 0.009563841099192949, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.009563841099192949, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.005588287690157623, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.005588287690157623, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003975553409035326, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003975553409035326, "ret_p1m": 0.07768466477522362, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07768466477522362, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08760868092457397, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08760868092457397, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.009924016149350345, "bench_c_p1m": -0.009924016149350345, "ret_p3m": 0.03354949357350412, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03354949357350412, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0011594130513796763, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0011594130513796763, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.034708906624883795, "bench_c_p3m": 0.034708906624883795, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.0108, -0.0213, -0.0125, -0.0263, -0.0296, -0.0158, -0.0097, 0.0038, 0.0217, 0.0099, 0.0154, 0.0182, 0.0099, 0.0048, 0.0204, 0.0195, -0.0014, 0.0092, 0.0199, 0.022, 0.021, 0.0376, 0.0376, 0.0414, 0.0087, 0.0013, -0.004, -0.0072, -0.0186, -0.0195, -0.0191, -0.0258, -0.024, -0.0045, 0.004, -0.0044, 0.0086, 0.0084, -0.0029, -0.0399, -0.0245, -0.0099, -0.0099, -0.0067, -0.0059, -0.0091, -0.0169, -0.0169, -0.006, -0.0153, -0.0148, -0.0423, -0.0302, -0.0272, -0.0203, -0.0097, 0.0109, 0.0124, 0.0257, 0.0257, 0.025, 0.0221, 0.0055, 0.0, 0.0107, 0.0257, 0.0186, 0.0206, 0.0096, 0.0072, 0.0307, 0.0458, 0.049, 0.0458, 0.0463, 0.0703, 0.0847, 0.0926, 0.1159, 0.1159, 0.1015, 0.0859, 0.0983, 0.1067, 0.0777, 0.0695, 0.0666, 0.0629, 0.0707, 0.0692, 0.0629, 0.061, 0.0683, 0.0724, 0.0668, 0.0637, 0.0549, 0.0656, 0.0719, 0.0754, 0.0688, 0.0547, 0.0347, 0.0069, 0.0144, 0.022, 0.0286, 0.0327, 0.0324, 0.0486, 0.0483, 0.0522, 0.0644, 0.0644, 0.0551, 0.0631, 0.0717, 0.0871, 0.0892, 0.0678, 0.0804, 0.0578, 0.0595, 0.0585, 0.0551, 0.0359, 0.0335, 0.0602, 0.0612, 0.0598, 0.0664, 0.0598, 0.0937, 0.0843, 0.0675, 0.0681, 0.0452, 0.0447, 0.0495, 0.0609, 0.067, 0.0636, 0.0678, 0.0468, 0.1456, 0.1553, 0.1485, 0.158, 0.1475, 0.1475, 0.1409, 0.1395, 0.1426, 0.1465, 0.1066, 0.1384, 0.1211, 0.139, 0.1458, 0.1222, 0.1347, 0.1436, 0.1422, 0.1631, 0.1672, 0.1732, 0.165, 0.1717, 0.1717, 0.1653, 0.1724, 0.1862, 0.1905, 0.1885, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2014720638334709762", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-01-23T15:23:26+00:00", "symbol": "Entergy", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Entergy plans $41B between 2026 and 2029, targeting more than 8% compound annual earnings growth", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long US utilities (esp. Dominion, Entergy) as picks-and-shovels AI power play; skeptical/bearish on Big Tech hyperscalers facing grid constraints.", "resolved_tickers": ["ETR"], "resolution_method": "exchange_ticker", "resolution_reason": "Entergy Corporation trades as ETR on NYSE", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Utilities - Regulated Electric", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "\"The limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power.\"\n\nThat was Elon Musk in a conversation with Larry Fink during his first-ever appearance at Davos.\n\nAnd it's the most honest thing anyone in Big Tech has said in a while.\n\nForget the hype about superintelligence and robots.\n\nForget the promises about productivity gains that CFOs still can't measure.\n\nThe bottleneck is power. And that bottleneck is very real.\n\nHere's why & how to position yourself to make the most out of this:\n\nWe're producing more chips than we can turn on.\n\nAI chip production is increasing exponentially. US electricity generation is growing 3-4% annually.\n\nThe math doesn't work.\n\nUS data center power demand is expected to hit 75.8 gigawatts in 2026, up from 61.8 gigawatts in 2025. By 2030, it could reach 134 gigawatts.\n\nThe largest US grid operator, PJM, expects to add 31 gigawatts of data center load over the next five years.\n\nBut only 28 gigawatts of new generation capacity is planned.\n\nThe deficit is already here.\n\nResidential electricity rates near data centers have jumped as much as 267% compared to five years ago. Regular Americans are subsidizing Silicon Valley's power consumption.\n\nWhether AI delivers on its big promises or not, the electricity bills are coming due right now.\n\nElon made another point that deserves attention:\n\nChina is solving the energy problem while America talks about AI miracles.\n\nHe noted China's solar deployment is \"tremendous.\"\n\nAnd that's an understatement.\n\nI verified the numbers. They're insane:\n\nChina installed 275 gigawatts of solar capacity in the first 11 months of 2025. That's more than the ENTIRE installed solar capacity of the United States.\n\nIn May 2025 alone, China added 93 gigawatts. Roughly 100 panels every second.\n\nFor the first time in history, a single country surpassed 1,000 gigawatts of total solar capacity.\n\nChina added more solar in one month than America has built in its entire history...\n\nBut this ISN'T about climate policy. It's about strategic positioning.\n\nChina understands something Wall Street is ignoring: whoever controls the energy infrastructure controls the next era of computing.\n\nWhile American investors chase the latest AI stock, China is building the power grid that will actually run the technology.\n\nMy take:\n\nThe data center buildout will fall short of expectations.\n\nBig Tech wants trillions in infrastructure. The grid can't deliver it. Not at this pace. Not with 3-4% annual electricity growth against exponential demand projections.\n\nSomething has to give.\n\nEither the buildout slows dramatically, or electricity prices spike to levels that destroy the economics of the entire AI story.\n\nThe AI trade has been built on the assumption that infrastructure will materialize to meet demand. That assumption is looking increasingly shaky.\n\nBUT the companies selling power to Big Tech win either way.\n\nScarcity means pricing power. Utilities don't need AI to cure cancer. They just need hyperscalers to keep signing power agreements. And they are.\n\nMicrosoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet spent ~$350B in 2025 on data centers. That money flows to utilities and grid infrastructure whether AI changes the world or not.\n\nUS utilities are forecasting a ~6% jump in capital expenditures to $228B in 2026. Cumulative utility capex is expected to surpass $1.1T through 2029.\n\nDominion Energy is investing $50B through 2029, projecting 5-7% annual earnings growth. Entergy plans $41B between 2026 and 2029, targeting more than 8% compound annual earnings growth.\n\nThese aren't speculative bets on AI changing everything...\n\nThey're regulated utilities with contracted demand and predictable cash flows.\n\nSo beware the AI story. \n\nThe productivity miracle remains unproven. The physical constraints are becoming impossible to ignore.\n\nBut the picks-and-shovels play? THAT'S where the smart money is looking.\n\nThe hyperscalers have to pay their electricity bills. I'd rather own the companies collecting them.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0037556758331493967, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0037556758331493967, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.004118279493015908, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.004118279493015908, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.00036260365986651166, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00036260365986651166, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.019100694319870604, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.019100694319870604, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.014022462557997883, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.014022462557997883, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00507823176187272, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00507823176187272, "ret_p1w": 0.028972983775781946, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.028972983775781946, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.02499743036674662, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.02499743036674662, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003975553409035326, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003975553409035326, "ret_p1m": 0.1327357604852062, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1327357604852062, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.14265977663455653, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.14265977663455653, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.009924016149350345, "bench_c_p1m": -0.009924016149350345, "ret_p3m": 0.19322321202711135, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19322321202711135, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15851430540222755, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.15851430540222755, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.034708906624883795, "bench_c_p3m": 0.034708906624883795, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0129, 0.0176, 0.0239, 0.0243, 0.0326, 0.0258, 0.0263, 0.0201, 0.036, 0.0352, 0.0326, 0.0291, 0.0132, 0.02, 0.0252, 0.0134, 0.009, 0.0017, 0.0055, 0.0246, 0.0223, 0.0361, 0.0361, 0.0465, 0.015, -0.0024, 0.0113, 0.0136, 0.0111, -0.0031, 0.0004, 0.0015, 0.0014, -0.009, 0.006, -0.0041, -0.0146, -0.0105, -0.0181, -0.0129, -0.0092, -0.0056, -0.0056, -0.0036, -0.0006, 0.0019, -0.0082, -0.0082, 0.0072, -0.0069, 0.0014, -0.0202, -0.0215, 0.0035, 0.0033, 0.0127, 0.0212, 0.0266, 0.0347, 0.0347, 0.0167, 0.0273, 0.0038, 0.0, 0.0191, 0.0364, 0.0353, 0.0305, 0.029, 0.0247, 0.0446, 0.0391, 0.0397, 0.0512, 0.0602, 0.077, 0.0823, 0.1013, 0.1349, 0.1349, 0.1281, 0.1059, 0.1161, 0.1236, 0.1327, 0.1363, 0.1477, 0.142, 0.1569, 0.1517, 0.1429, 0.1502, 0.1393, 0.1309, 0.1304, 0.1315, 0.1214, 0.129, 0.1404, 0.1468, 0.1457, 0.1261, 0.1227, 0.0791, 0.0946, 0.1074, 0.1099, 0.111, 0.1869, 0.1996, 0.2136, 0.2268, 0.2411, 0.2411, 0.2375, 0.2299, 0.2379, 0.2685, 0.258, 0.2457, 0.2483, 0.2416, 0.2477, 0.2478, 0.2277, 0.2015, 0.1932, 0.2305, 0.2275, 0.2253, 0.2223, 0.2386, 0.2736, 0.2645, 0.2641, 0.2746, 0.2268, 0.2166, 0.2119, 0.2269, 0.2265, 0.2202, 0.2261, 0.1841, 0.1901, 0.2006, 0.2156, 0.2193, 0.2207, 0.2207, 0.216, 0.211, 0.1905, 0.1843, 0.14, 0.1686, 0.1801, 0.1868, 0.2027, 0.1741, 0.1909, 0.1998, 0.1934, 0.2067, 0.2064, 0.2206, 0.204, 0.2067, 0.2067, 0.2185, 0.236, 0.2456, 0.2531, 0.2588, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2024500135237931077", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-19T15:03:40+00:00", "symbol": "OWL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The stock is down 33% this year. That collateral has literally shed $260 million since January.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish private credit/PE sector and key players (Blue Owl, KKR, Blackstone, Apollo) as redemption halts signal systemic stress akin to 2007 subprime early dominoes.", "resolved_tickers": ["OWL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Remember this scene in The Big Short?\n\nJamie Shipley and Charlie Geller have bet everything against the housing market. \n\nThey've been bleeding for months, wondering if they're wrong. \n\nThen they flip on CNN and see it: New Century Financial - the second-largest subprime lender in America - has filed for bankruptcy.\n\n\"It's starting.\"\n\nThat was April 2, 2007. New Century wasn't the crisis. It was 1% of the problem. But it was the first domino.\n\n4 months later, BNP Paribas froze 3 funds citing \"complete evaporation of liquidity.\" 18 months after that, Lehman was dead.\n\nI'd encourage you to watch that scene today. Because we JUST got our New Century moment in private credit:\n\nBlue Owl Capital - $307 billion in assets under management - just permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail private credit fund, OBDC II.\n\nInvestors will NEVER AGAIN redeem shares from this fund.\n\nOn January 25th, I wrote that private credit was showing cracks at the exact moment Wall Street wanted to open it up to your 401(k). \n\n3 weeks later, here we are.\n\nThe timeline follows a pattern anyone who's been around markets long enough recognizes:\n\nThrough the first 9 months of 2025, OBDC II investors withdrew $150 million - up 20% year over year. \n\nMeanwhile, Blue Owl execs publicly assured investors there was \"no meaningful pressure\" on their asset base.\n\nBut there was. And they're now facing a federal class-action lawsuit for saying otherwise.\n\nIn November, they attempted a merger that would have forced OBDC II investors into a publicly traded fund trading at a 20% discount to NAV. Effectively confiscating a fifth of their capital. \n\nBlue Owl's own CFO conceded investors \"could take a potential haircut.\" The stock dropped 11% in 8 days. They killed the deal.\n\nNow they've abandoned the pretense entirely. PERMANENT halt. Fire-selling $1.4 billion in loans across three funds. \n\nInvestors get roughly 30% of NAV back through quarterly distributions - on Blue Owl's schedule, not theirs.\n\nOne delightful detail: \n\nBlue Owl's co-CEOs have pledged $1.9 billion of their OWN company shares as collateral for personal loans - proceeds used, in part, to acquire the Tampa Bay Lightning. \n\nThe stock is down 33% this year. That collateral has literally shed $260 million since January.\n\nFounders leveraging company stock for hockey teams while retail investors queue up for their own money. Wall Street's version of noblesse oblige.\n\nBut here's what matters:\n\nThis isn't about Blue Owl. \n\nBlue Owl is a symptom. \n\nThe disease is a $3.4 TRILLION private credit industry built on opacity, conflicts of interest, and the polite fiction that illiquid assets can offer liquid redemptions.\n\nMorningstar DBRS reports the trailing default rate has risen to 4%, up from 2.8% a year ago. \n\nDowngrades outpacing upgrades. Outlook negative. UBS warns defaults could reach 13% if AI disrupts the software companies making up 17% of BDC loan portfolios. \n\nPayment-in-kind loans (where borrowers can't pay cash interest and simply pile it onto the debt) have surged past 11% of BDC income.\n\nWhen your borrowers are paying you with IOUs, the word \"income\" deserves quotation marks.\n\nAnd the government's response? \n\nOpen YOUR 401(k) to private credit. \n\nTrump's executive order directed regulators to do exactly that.\n\nThey want to \"democratize\" an asset class whose flagship retail product just permanently locked investors out.\n\nThe KKRs. The Blackstones. The Apollos. Everyone loaded up on private credit is exposed. \n\nWhen the tide goes out, you find out who's swimming naked.\n\nIn April 2007, New Century went bankrupt. \n\nMost of the financial world shrugged. 17 months later, Lehman made the point impossible to ignore.\n\nAnd Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions TODAY.\n\nAVOID PRIVATE CREDIT\n\nAVOID PRIVATE EQUITY\n\nBecause it's starting...\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the annual plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nThis was in the works for a long time, and it's a steal for the value you get.\n\nSign up here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.06303971638643713, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.06303971638643713, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.06039539808502581, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0546025095089695, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002644318301411319, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008437206877467629, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.047996472023334125, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.047996472023334125, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.055228321312430495, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05451615535932475, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00723184928909637, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0065196833359906226, "ret_p1w": -0.01188912662805719, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01188912662805719, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.018930930666662293, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.018600495914286697, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.007041804038605104, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006711369286229507, "ret_p1m": -0.1968296350039931, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1968296350039931, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.14695423118024675, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.13796102037620062, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.049875403823746334, "bench_c_p1m": -0.05886861462779247, "ret_p3m": -0.14997837996755703, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.14997837996755703, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.22485836011679272, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1348810085958021, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07487998014923569, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01509737137175493, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1968296350039931, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.14695423118024675, "alpha_c_stated": 0.13796102037620062, "price_path": [0.2228, 0.2478, 0.2737, 0.2737, 0.2953, 0.2979, 0.2876, 0.3523, 0.3869, 0.4024, 0.3834, 0.4396, 0.4301, 0.3912, 0.3515, 0.3463, 0.367, 0.329, 0.3368, 0.329, 0.3713, 0.3541, 0.3351, 0.3351, 0.2979, 0.3169, 0.2945, 0.2902, 0.2902, 0.3221, 0.3705, 0.3851, 0.3454, 0.3627, 0.3584, 0.3627, 0.3212, 0.3472, 0.3636, 0.3756, 0.3756, 0.3256, 0.361, 0.3549, 0.3074, 0.2617, 0.2547, 0.2522, 0.2081, 0.1779, 0.1589, 0.0458, 0.0415, 0.0043, 0.0812, 0.0915, 0.12, 0.0889, 0.0786, 0.0622, 0.0622, 0.0432, 0.063, 0.0, -0.048, -0.0806, -0.055, -0.0004, -0.0119, -0.0709, -0.0594, -0.0956, -0.0894, -0.0823, -0.129, -0.1361, -0.1669, -0.2056, -0.2417, -0.2294, -0.2285, -0.1942, -0.1977, -0.1968, -0.1968, -0.1995, -0.2109, -0.2048, -0.2056, -0.2215, -0.2012, -0.1959, -0.2329, -0.2453, -0.2453, -0.2558, -0.2541, -0.2673, -0.2708, -0.2752, -0.2558, -0.1924, -0.1264, -0.1502, -0.1325, -0.129, -0.1308, -0.1264, -0.1704, -0.1915, -0.2144, -0.2197, -0.218, -0.1413, -0.1211, -0.1088, -0.0533, -0.0718, -0.0885, -0.07, -0.1123, -0.1193, -0.1193, -0.1157, -0.1473, -0.1446, -0.15, -0.1229, -0.0806, -0.0932, -0.0932, -0.0896, -0.0869, -0.1049, -0.0734, -0.0562, -0.0923, -0.1265, -0.0815, -0.1166, -0.1509, -0.1356, -0.1464, -0.1238, -0.1274, -0.1338, -0.113, -0.1446, -0.141, -0.141, -0.168, -0.1969, -0.2365, -0.2356, -0.2275, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2024500135237931077", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-02-19T15:03:40+00:00", "symbol": "private equity", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "AVOID PRIVATE EQUITY", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish private credit/PE sector and key players (Blue Owl, KKR, Blackstone, Apollo) as redemption halts signal systemic stress akin to 2007 subprime early dominoes.", "resolved_tickers": ["PSP"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "PSP tracks listed private equity firms", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Remember this scene in The Big Short?\n\nJamie Shipley and Charlie Geller have bet everything against the housing market. \n\nThey've been bleeding for months, wondering if they're wrong. \n\nThen they flip on CNN and see it: New Century Financial - the second-largest subprime lender in America - has filed for bankruptcy.\n\n\"It's starting.\"\n\nThat was April 2, 2007. New Century wasn't the crisis. It was 1% of the problem. But it was the first domino.\n\n4 months later, BNP Paribas froze 3 funds citing \"complete evaporation of liquidity.\" 18 months after that, Lehman was dead.\n\nI'd encourage you to watch that scene today. Because we JUST got our New Century moment in private credit:\n\nBlue Owl Capital - $307 billion in assets under management - just permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail private credit fund, OBDC II.\n\nInvestors will NEVER AGAIN redeem shares from this fund.\n\nOn January 25th, I wrote that private credit was showing cracks at the exact moment Wall Street wanted to open it up to your 401(k). \n\n3 weeks later, here we are.\n\nThe timeline follows a pattern anyone who's been around markets long enough recognizes:\n\nThrough the first 9 months of 2025, OBDC II investors withdrew $150 million - up 20% year over year. \n\nMeanwhile, Blue Owl execs publicly assured investors there was \"no meaningful pressure\" on their asset base.\n\nBut there was. And they're now facing a federal class-action lawsuit for saying otherwise.\n\nIn November, they attempted a merger that would have forced OBDC II investors into a publicly traded fund trading at a 20% discount to NAV. Effectively confiscating a fifth of their capital. \n\nBlue Owl's own CFO conceded investors \"could take a potential haircut.\" The stock dropped 11% in 8 days. They killed the deal.\n\nNow they've abandoned the pretense entirely. PERMANENT halt. Fire-selling $1.4 billion in loans across three funds. \n\nInvestors get roughly 30% of NAV back through quarterly distributions - on Blue Owl's schedule, not theirs.\n\nOne delightful detail: \n\nBlue Owl's co-CEOs have pledged $1.9 billion of their OWN company shares as collateral for personal loans - proceeds used, in part, to acquire the Tampa Bay Lightning. \n\nThe stock is down 33% this year. That collateral has literally shed $260 million since January.\n\nFounders leveraging company stock for hockey teams while retail investors queue up for their own money. Wall Street's version of noblesse oblige.\n\nBut here's what matters:\n\nThis isn't about Blue Owl. \n\nBlue Owl is a symptom. \n\nThe disease is a $3.4 TRILLION private credit industry built on opacity, conflicts of interest, and the polite fiction that illiquid assets can offer liquid redemptions.\n\nMorningstar DBRS reports the trailing default rate has risen to 4%, up from 2.8% a year ago. \n\nDowngrades outpacing upgrades. Outlook negative. UBS warns defaults could reach 13% if AI disrupts the software companies making up 17% of BDC loan portfolios. \n\nPayment-in-kind loans (where borrowers can't pay cash interest and simply pile it onto the debt) have surged past 11% of BDC income.\n\nWhen your borrowers are paying you with IOUs, the word \"income\" deserves quotation marks.\n\nAnd the government's response? \n\nOpen YOUR 401(k) to private credit. \n\nTrump's executive order directed regulators to do exactly that.\n\nThey want to \"democratize\" an asset class whose flagship retail product just permanently locked investors out.\n\nThe KKRs. The Blackstones. The Apollos. Everyone loaded up on private credit is exposed. \n\nWhen the tide goes out, you find out who's swimming naked.\n\nIn April 2007, New Century went bankrupt. \n\nMost of the financial world shrugged. 17 months later, Lehman made the point impossible to ignore.\n\nAnd Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions TODAY.\n\nAVOID PRIVATE CREDIT\n\nAVOID PRIVATE EQUITY\n\nBecause it's starting...\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the annual plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nThis was in the works for a long time, and it's a steal for the value you get.\n\nSign up here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.025103911108361965, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.025103911108361965, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.022459592806950646, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.022459592806950646, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002644318301411319, "bench_c_m1d": 0.002644318301411319, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.001439128942561041, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.001439128942561041, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.008670978231657411, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.008670978231657411, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00723184928909637, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00723184928909637, "ret_p1w": -0.011992304691514244, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.011992304691514244, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.019034108730119348, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.019034108730119348, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.007041804038605104, "bench_c_p1w": 0.007041804038605104, "ret_p1m": -0.11832428496885661, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.11832428496885661, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06844888114511027, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06844888114511027, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.049875403823746334, "bench_c_p1m": -0.049875403823746334, "ret_p3m": -0.05814769345275217, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05814769345275217, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13302767360198786, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.13302767360198786, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07487998014923569, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07487998014923569, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.11832428496885661, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06844888114511027, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06844888114511027, "price_path": [0.0023, 0.017, 0.0241, 0.0241, 0.0349, 0.0233, 0.0211, 0.0363, 0.0433, 0.0508, 0.0455, 0.0598, 0.0735, 0.0716, 0.0621, 0.0601, 0.0634, 0.0577, 0.0641, 0.0663, 0.0745, 0.0745, 0.0803, 0.0803, 0.0783, 0.0804, 0.0766, 0.0724, 0.0724, 0.0825, 0.1019, 0.1068, 0.0945, 0.0934, 0.1046, 0.1083, 0.0929, 0.094, 0.1186, 0.1242, 0.1242, 0.0825, 0.0993, 0.1097, 0.1027, 0.095, 0.0991, 0.094, 0.095, 0.0809, 0.0769, 0.0267, 0.0288, 0.0021, 0.0261, 0.0384, 0.0438, 0.028, 0.0146, 0.0146, 0.0146, 0.019, 0.0251, 0.0, -0.0014, -0.0336, -0.0304, -0.0163, -0.012, -0.0345, -0.0379, -0.0552, -0.0373, -0.0488, -0.0636, -0.0676, -0.0742, -0.0915, -0.1098, -0.1068, -0.1022, -0.0852, -0.0916, -0.0923, -0.1183, -0.1059, -0.113, -0.0949, -0.113, -0.1247, -0.1159, -0.0937, -0.0905, -0.0928, -0.0928, -0.0893, -0.0899, -0.0718, -0.0777, -0.0755, -0.0529, -0.0299, -0.0054, -0.0147, 0.006, 0.0025, -0.0014, 0.0047, -0.0261, -0.0275, -0.0338, -0.0389, -0.0546, -0.0232, -0.0205, -0.0235, -0.0089, -0.0019, -0.0182, -0.0038, -0.0168, -0.0227, -0.0307, -0.0333, -0.0418, -0.0424, -0.0581, -0.0376, -0.025, -0.0283, -0.0283, -0.0187, -0.0214, -0.0293, -0.0222, -0.0269, -0.0259, -0.0723, -0.0509, -0.0723, -0.0747, -0.0609, -0.0727, -0.062, -0.0525, -0.05, -0.0444, -0.0593, -0.0663, -0.0663, -0.0776, -0.1021, -0.1122, -0.1031, -0.1052, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2005692474220589487", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-29T17:28:44+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I will short more on any pop in the stock price. I expect the numbers to significantly undershoot consensus expectations. I believe the odds favor a poor January for $TSLA stock.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Short TSLA: plans to add shorts on pops, expects Q4 deliveries to undershoot consensus, and sees poor January ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Do not be surprised if $TSLA announces the launching of paid (driverless) robotaxis in Texas in the company days. However, I anticipate this will be a completely staged event should it occur. I will short more on any pop in the stock price.\n\nI would expect the number of rides offered to be minimal. \nThe photo op may involve a celebrity or employees. This will be a complete Fugazi, as $TSLA has yet to demonstrate the required level 4 autonomy to the Texas regulator and is not legally allowed to operate paid driverless robotaxis without such. \n$TSLA will be subject to enormous legal liability if a serious accident occurs.\n\nThe motivation for @elonmusk to pull such a stunt is simple - that way he can make the hollow claim that he made good on his promise of paid driverless robotaxis by year end. But he has a long history of faking events!\n\nLooking beyond this, $TSLA will be announcing 4q deliveries in early January. I expect the numbers to significantly undershoot consensus expectations. I would also anticipate that some investors will take profits in the new year, having delayed making any sale owing to tax considerations. \nWhile I normally refrain from making short term calls, I believe the odds favor a poor January for $TSLA stock.\n\nI may well be wrong - this is just idle speculation on my part. DYOR.\n\n@BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 \n\nhttps://t.co/DVVyFzR9BL…\n\nPlease sign up for my substack as I will be posting more value added content there.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "THE ENDLESS LIES OF @elonmusk \n$TSLA\n\nBut hey, wait until next year!", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03383079648725196, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03383079648725196, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.030254397934510457, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02390106206676501, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009929734420486946, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.011335005235871831, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011335005235871831, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010113791622506807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007280395372829984, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004054609863041847, "ret_p1w": -0.017339659226142667, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.017339659226142667, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.017150723475002683, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.012788562642076506, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004551096584066161, "ret_p1m": -0.06252723835181184, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07775270436193038, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015225466010118538, "ret_p3m": -0.19043169982453256, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.19043169982453256, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13082826865138253, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09277859946366851, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09765310036086405, "ret_p6m": -0.16976335134041243, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.16976335134041243, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24191352582498715, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11486610533000619, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": -0.05489724601040624, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06252723835181184, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07363430551231631, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07775270436193038, "price_path": [-0.0004, -0.0514, -0.0649, -0.0139, -0.0578, -0.0456, -0.0524, -0.1004, -0.0516, -0.0661, -0.0533, -0.0672, -0.0442, -0.0266, -0.0371, -0.045, -0.0232, -0.0564, -0.0157, 0.002, 0.0041, -0.0425, -0.0067, 0.019, -0.0335, 0.0053, -0.0299, -0.0655, -0.0314, -0.0436, -0.0632, -0.1254, -0.1203, -0.1103, -0.127, -0.1211, -0.1401, -0.1491, -0.0911, -0.0875, -0.0719, -0.0719, -0.0641, -0.0642, -0.0661, -0.0281, -0.0111, -0.0101, -0.0436, -0.0315, -0.0178, -0.0277, -0.0015, 0.0341, 0.0658, 0.0166, 0.0516, 0.0469, 0.0633, 0.0564, 0.056, 0.056, 0.0338, 0.0, -0.0113, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0469, -0.0173, -0.058, -0.0614, -0.0519, -0.0318, -0.0232, -0.0271, -0.0445, -0.0458, -0.0482, -0.0482, -0.0879, -0.0614, -0.0224, -0.023, -0.0532, -0.0625, -0.0613, -0.0937, -0.0636, -0.0823, -0.082, -0.1167, -0.1358, -0.1056, -0.0921, -0.0749, -0.0682, -0.0926, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.1066, -0.1051, -0.1043, -0.104, -0.1301, -0.1093, -0.0919, -0.1111, -0.1243, -0.1225, -0.1462, -0.1168, -0.1177, -0.1369, -0.1326, -0.1314, -0.1127, -0.1406, -0.1489, -0.1394, -0.1313, -0.1455, -0.1726, -0.1995, -0.1714, -0.1667, -0.1603, -0.1904, -0.2128, -0.227, -0.1912, -0.1705, -0.2155, -0.2155, -0.2324, -0.2458, -0.2532, -0.2481, -0.2408, -0.2333, -0.2076, -0.1473, -0.1539, -0.1284, -0.1461, -0.1593, -0.1569, -0.1869, -0.1813, -0.1762, -0.1819, -0.1889, -0.1697, -0.1497, -0.146, -0.1529, -0.1325, -0.1041, -0.0681, -0.0319, -0.057, -0.0313, -0.0355, -0.0814, -0.108, -0.1208, -0.0922, -0.0909, -0.0732, -0.0732, -0.0567, -0.0419, -0.0382, -0.0519, -0.0952, -0.0781, -0.0782, -0.0896, -0.1493, -0.1103, -0.137, -0.1698, -0.1316, -0.1158, -0.1055, -0.1196, -0.1376, -0.1287, -0.1287, -0.1188, -0.1698]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2024203312653095052", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-18T19:24:12+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short from $7.5. Fair value is MUCH lower. The stock remains grossly overvalued. I believe the stock will go much lower in the coming months. $OPEN fair value is $1.50 IMHO.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Short OPEN from $7.5 with $1.50 fair value target; grossly overvalued, loss-making, low-margin house flipper on 18x adjusted revenues.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I have no special insight about the upcoming OPEN earnings release, nor do I really care - I am short from $7.5. \nFair value is MUCH lower. The stock remains grossly overvalued. $OPEN has lost every year since inception and remains a low margin, asset heavy house flipper selling on 18x adjusted revenues. \n\n@nejatian will undoubtedly try to spin things as much as possible.\nAny “beat” should be discounted as they set a very low bar for sales and earnings.\nLet’s see if he reveals anything new of substance.\n\nSo many haters told me I had to cover \n\n- when the warrants were issued\n\n- when 3q earnings were released\n\n- when the short interest was high\n\n- when various new management        appointments were announced \n\n- when @ericjackson hyped his  $82 price target on the following shows:\n\n@cvpayne\n@APompliano \n@natbrunell \n@philrosenn \n@Downtown\n@baystreetamber \n@AnnBerry_NYC \n@KyleReidhead \n@carlquintanilla \n@YahooFinance \n@CNBC \n\nWRONG WRONG AND WRONG\n\nTo all of media friends, why do you platform Eric? He is guilty of analytical malpractice and unethical, reckless promotion. He has hurt countless individual investors. \n\nWhy do you aid and abet such irresponsible behavior? \n\nShame on you.\n\nI believe the stock will go much lower in the coming months. $OPEN fair value is\n$1.50 IMHO.\n\n@DougKass @m3_melody @dayetweets @RealJimChanos", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 What do you think for $OPEN tomorrow after earnings?", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.06479485600857027, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.06479485600857027, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05978239974675059, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.07840493606655063, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050124562618196755, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013610080057980367, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004319650201332292, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004319650201332292, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006956994524881854, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007779877913270172, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637344323549562, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00346022771193788, "ret_p1w": 0.07559393001760895, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07559393001760895, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0655980749522771, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07351788275583138, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009995855065331849, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0020760472617775694, "ret_p1m": 0.11015113162826795, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.11015113162826795, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.14874998635313585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.14313857623848514, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.038598854724867904, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03298744461021719, "ret_p3m": -0.07559393001760895, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07559393001760895, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15482762851527587, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09160454305074617, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07923369849766693, "bench_c_p3m": 0.016010613033137222, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.11015113162826795, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.14874998635313585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.14313857623848514, "price_path": [0.4579, 0.6609, 0.6717, 0.6803, 0.6803, 0.6631, 0.5421, 0.5097, 0.4989, 0.6371, 0.5443, 0.5227, 0.6004, 0.5119, 0.5227, 0.4168, 0.3974, 0.4536, 0.3218, 0.3564, 0.3737, 0.3866, 0.3542, 0.3564, 0.3564, 0.2981, 0.2592, 0.2613, 0.2592, 0.2592, 0.311, 0.365, 0.4968, 0.3218, 0.3888, 0.5745, 0.5162, 0.4622, 0.4341, 0.3607, 0.4406, 0.4406, 0.3801, 0.3996, 0.3866, 0.2981, 0.2678, 0.2549, 0.2441, 0.2052, 0.1123, 0.041, 0.108, 0.0799, 0.0151, 0.054, 0.067, 0.013, 0.0281, -0.054, -0.04, -0.04, -0.0648, 0.0, 0.0043, 0.0799, 0.0324, 0.1037, 0.0756, 0.1685, 0.1706, 0.0907, 0.0734, 0.054, 0.1188, 0.0799, 0.0972, 0.0821, 0.1382, 0.0454, 0.0691, 0.1188, 0.2009, 0.1404, 0.1102, 0.0605, 0.1253, 0.1188, 0.1015, 0.0583, 0.0367, -0.0432, 0.0108, -0.013, 0.0238, 0.0238, -0.0043, -0.0173, 0.0022, -0.0691, -0.067, -0.0583, -0.0259, 0.041, 0.1382, 0.1425, 0.1555, 0.1771, 0.1728, 0.1274, 0.1901, 0.1641, 0.1836, 0.2052, 0.162, 0.1749, 0.108, 0.1296, 0.1793, 0.149, 0.0821, 0.0475, 0.0173, -0.0108, -0.0346, -0.054, -0.0756, -0.0713, -0.0497, -0.013, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0324, 0.0259, 0.095, 0.0886, 0.1469, 0.1685, 0.0518, 0.0691, -0.0454, -0.0691, -0.0626, -0.0324, -0.0346, -0.041, -0.0043, 0.0259, -0.0389, -0.0346, -0.0346, -0.0756, -0.0929, -0.0756, -0.0713, -0.0562, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2018335773934657558", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-02T14:48:42+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "gold at $4,500 is going to look like the bargain of the century", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Debasement trade intact; buy gold/silver after leverage flush completes, with miners offering better risk/reward than physical metals.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Friday's 26% crash in silver and 9% drop in gold has everyone asking if the debasement trade is dead.\n\nIt's not even close.\n\nThe selling continued today. Gold fell to $4,544. Silver dropped to $76.\n\nTotal damage from Thursday's highs: Gold down about $1,060 (≈19%) from $5,608. Silver down about 37% from $121.\n\nThe algorithms sold on a name: Kevin Warsh.\n\nWall Street's narrative was simple. Warsh is a \"lifetime hawk.\" Hawks raise rates. Hawks defend the dollar. Hawks kill gold.\n\nBut did anyone actually listen to what Warsh has been saying?\n\nIn his Fox News interview with Larry Kudlow - the one that likely got him the job - Warsh said this:\n\n\"Why can't we take the target rate from 4 to 2? So we can lower interest rates a lot, and in so doing, get 30-year fixed-rate mortgages so they're affordable.\"\n\nRead that again. The \"hawk\" wants to slash rates by 200 basis points into a \"booming\" economy.\n\nThat's not hawkish. That's pouring gasoline on a bonfire.\n\nHe also said the Fed needs to \"take their balance sheet down and redeploy that money to Main Street.\"\n\nMechanically, that's incoherent.\n\n äYou can't shrink the balance sheet AND redirect that money. The money gets destroyed in quantitative tightening.\n\nThe bond market noticed the contradiction.\n\nThe 2-year Treasury yield FELL after the Warsh announcement. If traders believed he'd be hawkish, yields would have RISEN.\n\nInstead, futures priced in MORE rate cuts.\n\nThe bond market thinks Warsh will cut aggressively. And why wouldn't he?\n\nHe just watched the DOJ serve Powell with grand jury subpoenas. Criminal investigation. All because Powell wouldn't cut rates fast enough.\n\nWarsh's worst nightmare is Trump turning on him the same way.\n\nMore rate cuts + sticky inflation = the debasement trade accelerating, not ending\n\nNow let's put the carnage in perspective:\n\nSilver's crash - the worst since 1980 - took prices back to mid-January.\n\nGold's plunge? Back to January 22nd. Ten days of gains.\n\nThe rally was so extreme that this bone-jarring drop barely scratched the surface.\n\nThe structural accelerants are everywhere.\n\nChina suspended trading on five commodity funds. The premium on one silver fund had hit 60% over NAV. The CME hiked gold margins to 8% and silver to 15% - effective today.\n\nWhen the exchange demands more collateral, forced selling begins.\n\nThis was leverage unwinding. Hot money getting flushed. Tourists carried out on stretchers.\n\nThe structural case hasn't changed.\n\nThe US borrowed $602 billion in just the first three months of fiscal 2026. $7 billion per day.\n\nInterest on the debt hit $1.2 trillion annually.\n\nCentral banks see what's coming. Global official gold reserves now exceed foreign holdings of Treasuries for the first time since the 1990s.\n\nThe debasement trade isn't about who chairs the Fed.\n\nIT'S ABOUT MATH\n\nAnd if Warsh actually executes the plan he outlined on Fox News - slashing rates to 2% - gold at $4,500 is going to look like the bargain of the century.\n\nBut don't rush to buy the dip.\n\nThe metals got way overbought. Recent momentum buyers who piled in with leverage may still be forced to puke. No telling how far down this goes.\n\nLet the market tell you where the bottom is. Then buy.\n\nAnd when you do - favor the equities over the metals. The miners have lagged badly and offer better risk/reward from here.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/5N2EeMjt6E", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041720336011298986, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.041720336011298986, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.046666967939248405, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.046666967939248405, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06358720612372104, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06358720612372104, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0720425920248936, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0720425920248936, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "ret_p1w": 0.09341416767813193, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09341416767813193, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09551363184447681, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.09551363184447681, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "ret_p1m": 0.09601294523169002, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.09601294523169002, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11769784948962991, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11769784948962991, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "bench_c_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "ret_p3m": -0.008123993119273254, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.008123993119273254, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.04437985280723178, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.04437985280723178, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "bench_c_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.09601294523169002, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11769784948962991, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11769784948962991, "price_path": [-0.1419, -0.143, -0.1377, -0.1141, -0.1106, -0.0963, -0.1036, -0.1198, -0.1299, -0.1236, -0.1221, -0.1224, -0.1238, -0.1099, -0.1102, -0.103, -0.103, -0.0919, -0.0875, -0.0934, -0.0942, -0.0936, -0.0953, -0.0977, -0.093, -0.0892, -0.0793, -0.0742, -0.0734, -0.0731, -0.0652, -0.0669, -0.0658, -0.0442, -0.0316, -0.0356, -0.0356, -0.0243, -0.0668, -0.0661, -0.0722, -0.0722, -0.0675, -0.043, -0.0327, -0.0419, -0.0366, -0.0296, -0.0115, -0.0129, -0.0028, -0.0089, -0.0137, -0.0137, 0.0236, 0.0386, 0.0577, 0.0723, 0.088, 0.1146, 0.1579, 0.161, 0.0417, 0.0, 0.0636, 0.0628, 0.0345, 0.0663, 0.0934, 0.0826, 0.0948, 0.0568, 0.0831, 0.0831, 0.0493, 0.0729, 0.0759, 0.0971, 0.1268, 0.1112, 0.1084, 0.1179, 0.1326, 0.1472, 0.096, 0.1046, 0.0913, 0.1086, 0.1063, 0.1188, 0.115, 0.0931, 0.0789, 0.078, 0.0752, 0.0412, -0.0017, -0.0322, -0.0541, -0.0538, -0.0254, -0.062, -0.0291, -0.0294, 0.0074, 0.025, 0.0053, 0.0053, 0.0012, 0.011, 0.0173, 0.0252, 0.0234, 0.0193, 0.042, 0.0312, 0.0303, 0.044, 0.035, 0.0057, 0.019, 0.0092, 0.0143, 0.0065, -0.0122, -0.0228, -0.0081, -0.0092, -0.0291, -0.0207, 0.009, 0.0107, 0.0155, 0.0176, 0.0136, 0.0079, 0.0002, -0.023, -0.0204, -0.0366, -0.0228, -0.0237, -0.0312, -0.0312, -0.0307, -0.0436, -0.0336, -0.0234, -0.0372, -0.0355, -0.0451, -0.0371, -0.0723, -0.0699, -0.0851, -0.123, -0.0955, -0.095, -0.0716, -0.0691, -0.0902, -0.0937, -0.0937, -0.0996, -0.1166, -0.1433, -0.135, -0.1253, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2018335773934657558", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-02T14:48:42+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Let the market tell you where the bottom is. Then buy", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Debasement trade intact; buy gold/silver after leverage flush completes, with miners offering better risk/reward than physical metals.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Friday's 26% crash in silver and 9% drop in gold has everyone asking if the debasement trade is dead.\n\nIt's not even close.\n\nThe selling continued today. Gold fell to $4,544. Silver dropped to $76.\n\nTotal damage from Thursday's highs: Gold down about $1,060 (≈19%) from $5,608. Silver down about 37% from $121.\n\nThe algorithms sold on a name: Kevin Warsh.\n\nWall Street's narrative was simple. Warsh is a \"lifetime hawk.\" Hawks raise rates. Hawks defend the dollar. Hawks kill gold.\n\nBut did anyone actually listen to what Warsh has been saying?\n\nIn his Fox News interview with Larry Kudlow - the one that likely got him the job - Warsh said this:\n\n\"Why can't we take the target rate from 4 to 2? So we can lower interest rates a lot, and in so doing, get 30-year fixed-rate mortgages so they're affordable.\"\n\nRead that again. The \"hawk\" wants to slash rates by 200 basis points into a \"booming\" economy.\n\nThat's not hawkish. That's pouring gasoline on a bonfire.\n\nHe also said the Fed needs to \"take their balance sheet down and redeploy that money to Main Street.\"\n\nMechanically, that's incoherent.\n\n äYou can't shrink the balance sheet AND redirect that money. The money gets destroyed in quantitative tightening.\n\nThe bond market noticed the contradiction.\n\nThe 2-year Treasury yield FELL after the Warsh announcement. If traders believed he'd be hawkish, yields would have RISEN.\n\nInstead, futures priced in MORE rate cuts.\n\nThe bond market thinks Warsh will cut aggressively. And why wouldn't he?\n\nHe just watched the DOJ serve Powell with grand jury subpoenas. Criminal investigation. All because Powell wouldn't cut rates fast enough.\n\nWarsh's worst nightmare is Trump turning on him the same way.\n\nMore rate cuts + sticky inflation = the debasement trade accelerating, not ending\n\nNow let's put the carnage in perspective:\n\nSilver's crash - the worst since 1980 - took prices back to mid-January.\n\nGold's plunge? Back to January 22nd. Ten days of gains.\n\nThe rally was so extreme that this bone-jarring drop barely scratched the surface.\n\nThe structural accelerants are everywhere.\n\nChina suspended trading on five commodity funds. The premium on one silver fund had hit 60% over NAV. The CME hiked gold margins to 8% and silver to 15% - effective today.\n\nWhen the exchange demands more collateral, forced selling begins.\n\nThis was leverage unwinding. Hot money getting flushed. Tourists carried out on stretchers.\n\nThe structural case hasn't changed.\n\nThe US borrowed $602 billion in just the first three months of fiscal 2026. $7 billion per day.\n\nInterest on the debt hit $1.2 trillion annually.\n\nCentral banks see what's coming. Global official gold reserves now exceed foreign holdings of Treasuries for the first time since the 1990s.\n\nThe debasement trade isn't about who chairs the Fed.\n\nIT'S ABOUT MATH\n\nAnd if Warsh actually executes the plan he outlined on Fox News - slashing rates to 2% - gold at $4,500 is going to look like the bargain of the century.\n\nBut don't rush to buy the dip.\n\nThe metals got way overbought. Recent momentum buyers who piled in with leverage may still be forced to puke. No telling how far down this goes.\n\nLet the market tell you where the bottom is. Then buy.\n\nAnd when you do - favor the equities over the metals. The miners have lagged badly and offer better risk/reward from here.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/5N2EeMjt6E", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041413582259699266, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.041413582259699266, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.046360214187648685, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.046360214187648685, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06239641759706527, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06239641759706527, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.07085180349823783, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07085180349823783, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "ret_p1w": 0.04969627764760198, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04969627764760198, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05179574181394686, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05179574181394686, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "ret_p1m": 0.030922111930923535, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.030922111930923535, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05260701618886343, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05260701618886343, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "bench_c_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "ret_p3m": -0.07979015163579095, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07979015163579095, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.11604601132374948, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.11604601132374948, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "bench_c_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.030922111930923535, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05260701618886343, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05260701618886343, "price_path": [-0.3974, -0.3988, -0.3937, -0.3679, -0.3588, -0.333, -0.3454, -0.3655, -0.3723, -0.3636, -0.3588, -0.368, -0.3747, -0.3563, -0.3557, -0.3319, -0.3319, -0.2931, -0.275, -0.2666, -0.2674, -0.2855, -0.2691, -0.2724, -0.2384, -0.226, -0.2046, -0.2256, -0.1978, -0.2031, -0.1681, -0.1811, -0.1589, -0.1376, -0.1049, -0.0997, -0.0997, -0.0182, -0.0888, -0.0478, -0.1107, -0.1107, -0.0924, -0.0464, 0.0175, -0.0204, -0.0377, -0.0008, 0.0661, 0.085, 0.1673, 0.1502, 0.1184, 0.1184, 0.1788, 0.159, 0.2028, 0.2826, 0.3575, 0.4024, 0.4578, 0.4573, 0.0414, 0.0, 0.0624, 0.093, -0.0794, -0.0311, 0.0497, 0.0134, 0.0569, -0.065, -0.0375, -0.0375, -0.0838, -0.0324, -0.0197, 0.0577, 0.1122, 0.0917, 0.1049, 0.1106, 0.1732, 0.126, 0.0309, 0.04, 0.0253, 0.0483, 0.0803, 0.1056, 0.0755, 0.0558, 0.0035, 0.0108, -0.0108, -0.0516, -0.0933, -0.1507, -0.1376, -0.131, -0.0998, -0.1611, -0.1242, -0.1231, -0.0594, -0.0594, -0.0918, -0.0918, -0.0877, -0.0897, -0.0686, -0.0559, -0.0464, -0.0574, -0.0055, -0.0083, -0.0166, 0.0164, -0.004, -0.0545, -0.0286, -0.056, -0.0504, -0.0567, -0.0861, -0.1049, -0.0798, -0.0573, -0.0897, -0.0901, -0.0319, -0.0116, 0.0079, 0.0768, 0.0843, 0.0954, 0.0424, -0.0469, -0.0345, -0.0765, -0.0512, -0.0413, -0.0563, -0.0563, -0.0375, -0.0682, -0.0563, -0.0567, -0.0658, -0.0614, -0.086, -0.0754, -0.1501, -0.1499, -0.1854, -0.204, -0.1604, -0.1539, -0.1238, -0.1249, -0.1633, -0.1785, -0.1785, -0.1868, -0.2307, -0.2852, -0.2772, -0.2645, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2018335773934657558", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-02-02T14:48:42+00:00", "symbol": "gold miners", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "favor the equities over the metals. The miners have lagged badly and offer better risk/reward from here", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Debasement trade intact; buy gold/silver after leverage flush completes, with miners offering better risk/reward than physical metals.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GDX is the primary gold miners ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Friday's 26% crash in silver and 9% drop in gold has everyone asking if the debasement trade is dead.\n\nIt's not even close.\n\nThe selling continued today. Gold fell to $4,544. Silver dropped to $76.\n\nTotal damage from Thursday's highs: Gold down about $1,060 (≈19%) from $5,608. Silver down about 37% from $121.\n\nThe algorithms sold on a name: Kevin Warsh.\n\nWall Street's narrative was simple. Warsh is a \"lifetime hawk.\" Hawks raise rates. Hawks defend the dollar. Hawks kill gold.\n\nBut did anyone actually listen to what Warsh has been saying?\n\nIn his Fox News interview with Larry Kudlow - the one that likely got him the job - Warsh said this:\n\n\"Why can't we take the target rate from 4 to 2? So we can lower interest rates a lot, and in so doing, get 30-year fixed-rate mortgages so they're affordable.\"\n\nRead that again. The \"hawk\" wants to slash rates by 200 basis points into a \"booming\" economy.\n\nThat's not hawkish. That's pouring gasoline on a bonfire.\n\nHe also said the Fed needs to \"take their balance sheet down and redeploy that money to Main Street.\"\n\nMechanically, that's incoherent.\n\n äYou can't shrink the balance sheet AND redirect that money. The money gets destroyed in quantitative tightening.\n\nThe bond market noticed the contradiction.\n\nThe 2-year Treasury yield FELL after the Warsh announcement. If traders believed he'd be hawkish, yields would have RISEN.\n\nInstead, futures priced in MORE rate cuts.\n\nThe bond market thinks Warsh will cut aggressively. And why wouldn't he?\n\nHe just watched the DOJ serve Powell with grand jury subpoenas. Criminal investigation. All because Powell wouldn't cut rates fast enough.\n\nWarsh's worst nightmare is Trump turning on him the same way.\n\nMore rate cuts + sticky inflation = the debasement trade accelerating, not ending\n\nNow let's put the carnage in perspective:\n\nSilver's crash - the worst since 1980 - took prices back to mid-January.\n\nGold's plunge? Back to January 22nd. Ten days of gains.\n\nThe rally was so extreme that this bone-jarring drop barely scratched the surface.\n\nThe structural accelerants are everywhere.\n\nChina suspended trading on five commodity funds. The premium on one silver fund had hit 60% over NAV. The CME hiked gold margins to 8% and silver to 15% - effective today.\n\nWhen the exchange demands more collateral, forced selling begins.\n\nThis was leverage unwinding. Hot money getting flushed. Tourists carried out on stretchers.\n\nThe structural case hasn't changed.\n\nThe US borrowed $602 billion in just the first three months of fiscal 2026. $7 billion per day.\n\nInterest on the debt hit $1.2 trillion annually.\n\nCentral banks see what's coming. Global official gold reserves now exceed foreign holdings of Treasuries for the first time since the 1990s.\n\nThe debasement trade isn't about who chairs the Fed.\n\nIT'S ABOUT MATH\n\nAnd if Warsh actually executes the plan he outlined on Fox News - slashing rates to 2% - gold at $4,500 is going to look like the bargain of the century.\n\nBut don't rush to buy the dip.\n\nThe metals got way overbought. Recent momentum buyers who piled in with leverage may still be forced to puke. No telling how far down this goes.\n\nLet the market tell you where the bottom is. Then buy.\n\nAnd when you do - favor the equities over the metals. The miners have lagged badly and offer better risk/reward from here.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/5N2EeMjt6E", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.00010611006027061443, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.00010611006027061443, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.005052741988220033, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.005052741988220033, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.042785844302359655, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.042785844302359655, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05124123020353222, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05124123020353222, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "ret_p1w": 0.09236645846414837, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.09236645846414837, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.09446592263049325, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.09446592263049325, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "ret_p1m": 0.11731601163549454, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.11731601163549454, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.13900091589343444, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.13900091589343444, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "bench_c_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "ret_p3m": -0.06263936057915676, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.06263936057915676, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.09889522026711528, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.09889522026711528, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "bench_c_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.11731601163549454, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.13900091589343444, "alpha_c_stated": 0.13900091589343444, "price_path": [-0.2551, -0.2542, -0.2353, -0.1991, -0.1915, -0.1647, -0.1879, -0.1973, -0.21, -0.2028, -0.1948, -0.2309, -0.2237, -0.1783, -0.18, -0.1404, -0.1404, -0.1227, -0.1271, -0.1398, -0.1456, -0.1421, -0.1459, -0.1656, -0.1363, -0.1218, -0.0908, -0.0971, -0.1057, -0.1059, -0.0953, -0.097, -0.0747, -0.0426, -0.0416, -0.0477, -0.0477, -0.0308, -0.0885, -0.078, -0.0894, -0.0894, -0.0898, -0.0609, -0.0218, -0.0332, -0.0281, -0.0173, 0.0162, 0.0242, 0.0283, 0.031, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0912, 0.0754, 0.1166, 0.1362, 0.1411, 0.1603, 0.1908, 0.1464, 0.0001, 0.0, 0.0428, 0.0479, -0.0186, 0.034, 0.0924, 0.0936, 0.1251, 0.0434, 0.1035, 0.1035, 0.0643, 0.0889, 0.1067, 0.1281, 0.1709, 0.1753, 0.1802, 0.2092, 0.2299, 0.2245, 0.1173, 0.1241, 0.081, 0.0763, 0.0876, 0.0975, 0.0761, 0.0543, -0.0099, 0.002, -0.0024, -0.0646, -0.1199, -0.1494, -0.1148, -0.1135, -0.0836, -0.1253, -0.0892, -0.0892, -0.0257, 0.0193, 0.0042, 0.0042, -0.0039, 0.0083, 0.0424, 0.0442, 0.0552, 0.0487, 0.0696, 0.038, 0.0368, 0.0653, 0.0524, -0.0127, 0.0031, -0.0212, 0.0016, -0.017, -0.06, -0.0846, -0.0626, -0.0752, -0.0907, -0.089, -0.0186, -0.0262, 0.0042, 0.0362, 0.0313, 0.0217, -0.0025, -0.0726, -0.0748, -0.1105, -0.0831, -0.0871, -0.0974, -0.0974, -0.0604, -0.0929, -0.0744, -0.0499, -0.0797, -0.0652, -0.0976, -0.0827, -0.163, -0.1648, -0.1762, -0.2164, -0.1749, -0.1503, -0.0947, -0.0738, -0.1044, -0.124, -0.124, -0.1354, -0.1755, -0.2081, -0.1966, -0.1825, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2007564186683879835", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-03T21:26:15+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Extremely bearish is more like it. 418k deliveries 4q 2025 represents a decline of 15% from 4q 2024. Tesla is now x growth. I expect deliveries to fall again in 2026.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: deliveries down 15% YOY in Q4, growth story over, expects further delivery declines in 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Gfilche @Tesla Extremely bearish is more like it. \n418k deliveries 4q 2025 represents a decline of 15% from 4q 2024. YOY is the proper way to measure progress. \nTesla is now x growth.\nI expect deliveries to fall again in 2026. https://t.co/jdYvUAJaUJ", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "extremely bullish print on Q4 deliveries from @Tesla ⚡️\n\n418K cars\n\nfar higher than Q1 or Q2 of this year. will make $TSLA comfortably profitable\n\nadditionally, energy deployed set another record, will continue to drive meaningful earnings growth 🦾 https://t.co/nQHRzRGzmb", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Gfilche", "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007809615891763637", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-04T13:41:30+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "All in that sums to a total valuation of $80 per $TSLA share. The stock closed at $438.07 on Friday. While not precise, this back of the envelope calculation is far more realistic than the fanciful/irresponsible figures cited by the narrative promoting $TSLA momentum investors", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Sum-of-parts analysis values TSLA at ~$80/share vs $438 close; calls current price wildly overvalued across auto, robotaxi, Optimus, and energy segments.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "About that $TSLA sum of the parts valuation…\n\nBoston Dynamics is estimated to be worth $5B. Figure AI recently raised money at a valuation of $39B. \n\nBoth are far ahead of $TSLA in the development of robots. \n\nGenerously imputing the Figure AI valuation to Optimus would imply a value of $12 per $TSLA share.\n\nWaymo is rumored to be going public at a $100B valuation. Imputing a similar valuation to robotaxis would imply a value of $30 per $TSLA share.\n\nLooking at comparables, the declining $TSLA automotive business is worth maybe $60B, or $18 per $TSLA share.\n\nAgain looking at comparables, energy \nis worth perhaps $20 per share.\n\nAll in that sums to a total valuation \nof $80 per $TSLA share. The stock \nclosed at $438.07 on Friday.\n\nWhile not precise, this back of the envelope calculation is far more realistic than the fanciful/irresponsible figures cited by the narrative promoting $TSLA momentum investors who worship at the alter of price.\n\n“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”\n\nBen Graham, please call your office.\n\n@FredLambert @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @DougKass @zerohedge @unusual_whales @WallStreetApes @wallstreetbets @WallStreetMav @JG_Nuke @RealDanODowd @HedgeyeIndstrls \n@SawyerMerritt @Teslaconomics \n@mayemusk @teslaownersSV \n\nPS - I was once a waiter. I do tip generously.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @BradMunchen Are you purposely ignoring Optimus? If you think it's genuinely only worth 1.4 trillion you are undervaluing labor by a huge factor. I bet you never tip", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2030956067258077512", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-09T10:37:14+00:00", "symbol": "oil", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Oil spiked over 20% overnight, the G7 leak hit the wires, and prices pulled back to... still up 12-15%", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "SPR release won't fix structural Hormuz-driven supply gap; go long oil, energy stocks, gold, and silver as the smart-money play for the next 90+ days.", "resolved_tickers": ["USO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "USO is the standard crude oil ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE G7 IS ABOUT TO MAKE THE BIGGEST MISTAKE IN ENERGY MARKET HISTORY\n\nThis morning, G7 finance ministers are holding an emergency call to discuss dumping 300-400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves onto the market.\n\nThey think this will fix $108 oil.\n\nBut it won't. Let me explain why:\n\nLet's do the math that nobody on CNBC will do for you.\n\nGlobal oil consumption runs approximately 103 million barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed somewhere between 4 and 6 million barrels per day from available supply. \n\nThat's happening RIGHT NOW. \n\nIraq has already cut 1.5 million barrels per day because it literally ran out of storage space. Kuwait is cutting production. Bahrain declared force majeure.\n\nSo take 400 million barrels - the high end of what they're discussing - and divide it by the daily supply gap.\n\nYou get roughly 67 to 100 days of coverage.\n\nTwo to three months.\n\nThat's it. That's the whole plan.\n\nAnd then what?\n\nYou can't release reserves you've already released.\n\nThe market figured this out in about 4 hours. \n\nOil spiked over 20% overnight, the G7 leak hit the wires, and prices pulled back to... still up 12-15%. \n\nTraders looked at the arithmetic and said: \"Thanks, but that doesn't solve anything.\"\n\nAnd they're right.\n\nHere's the part that should terrify you:\n\nThe US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at roughly 411 million barrels. \n\nThat sounds like a lot until you remember it held 727 million barrels at its peak. \n\nThe previous administration drained 180 million barrels in 2022 to fight $90 oil. That release bought consumers about 18 cents per gallon of relief.\n\nTHIS disruption is structurally larger, geographically more dangerous, and has no visible end date.\n\nIn 2022, the threat was Russian supply being redirected. Tankers still moved. Alternatives existed. The Strait of Hormuz was wide open.\n\nToday, the world's most critical energy chokepoint is effectively closed. And that not by a naval blockade but by insurance companies refusing to cover ships transiting it. \n\nAnd the political situation just got worse, not better.\n\nThe conditions for oil to return to pre-war levels require the Strait to reopen, Iraqi production to restore, and Gulf shipping insurance to normalize. \n\nNONE of those conditions are achievable through reserve releases. They require the conflict to end or dramatically de-escalate.\n\nNothing happening right now suggests either outcome.\n\nFor 45 years I've watched governments try to solve structural supply problems with temporary demand-side gimmicks. It never works. \n\nIt didn't work in the 1970s when Nixon tried price controls. It didn't work in 2022 when Biden drained the SPR. And it won't work now.\n\nStrategic reserves exist for genuine emergencies.\n\nThis IS a genuine emergency. But using 25-30% of the world's total strategic stockpile (roughly a third of the entire 1.2 billion barrel IEA reserve) when the underlying crisis has no resolution in sight isn't strategy...\n\nIt's PANIC.\n\nThe smart money isn't waiting for G7 announcements. \n\nThey're looking at what happens in 90 days when the reserves are depleted, the Strait is still closed, and the new Supreme Leader is still in power:\n\nEnergy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet.\n\nThe G7 can release every barrel they have. It doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't bring stability to Iran. It doesn't fix a 4-6 million barrel per day supply gap that grows wider every week.\n\nArithmetic doesn't care about press conferences.\n\nAnd neither should you.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04255721972670501, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04255721972670501, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05124111069824289, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.05124111069824289, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008683890971537878, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008683890971537878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.014664993313950658, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.014664993313950658, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.016272008890440337, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.016272008890440337, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0016070155764896787, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0016070155764896787, "ret_p1w": 0.10255915614349442, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.10255915614349442, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.11618196939596315, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.11618196939596315, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.013622813252468724, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013622813252468724, "ret_p1m": 0.3234927576695781, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.3234927576695781, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.3489246566754701, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.3489246566754701, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.025431899005892045, "bench_c_p1m": -0.025431899005892045, "ret_p3m": 0.3106489321699817, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.3106489321699817, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.19139306976105597, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.19139306976105597, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11925586240892572, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11925586240892572, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.3234927576695781, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.3489246566754701, "alpha_c_stated": 0.3489246566754701, "price_path": [-0.3239, -0.3362, -0.3405, -0.3493, -0.3658, -0.3484, -0.356, -0.3479, -0.3316, -0.3262, -0.3271, -0.3271, -0.3436, -0.3328, -0.3315, -0.3371, -0.3371, -0.339, -0.3269, -0.3433, -0.3502, -0.3239, -0.3216, -0.3132, -0.2957, -0.304, -0.3182, -0.3132, -0.3132, -0.3112, -0.297, -0.3116, -0.2912, -0.2957, -0.2748, -0.2656, -0.2414, -0.2378, -0.278, -0.2575, -0.2535, -0.2649, -0.2621, -0.2522, -0.2521, -0.2438, -0.2679, -0.2694, -0.2694, -0.2741, -0.239, -0.2218, -0.2251, -0.2246, -0.2259, -0.2358, -0.2354, -0.2145, -0.1643, -0.1354, -0.1224, -0.0769, 0.0426, 0.0, 0.0147, 0.0357, 0.1348, 0.1491, 0.1026, 0.1391, 0.1662, 0.1249, 0.1639, 0.0597, 0.0979, 0.0868, 0.1239, 0.1905, 0.2444, 0.2197, 0.1894, 0.322, 0.322, 0.3317, 0.3235, 0.1941, 0.2169, 0.1964, 0.2314, 0.1871, 0.175, 0.2062, 0.1122, 0.1628, 0.2293, 0.2403, 0.2913, 0.2691, 0.2913, 0.3381, 0.4438, 0.4099, 0.3687, 0.4148, 0.3819, 0.2839, 0.2937, 0.2805, 0.3291, 0.3831, 0.3614, 0.3707, 0.4208, 0.4309, 0.4661, 0.3828, 0.3662, 0.3507, 0.3507, 0.3131, 0.2559, 0.2535, 0.2373, 0.2988, 0.3157, 0.3501, 0.3106, 0.275, 0.2954, 0.2585, 0.2873, 0.2348, 0.2022, 0.1618, 0.1068, 0.0949, 0.101, 0.101, 0.0801, 0.0664, 0.0188, 0.0477, 0.011, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2030956067258077512", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-09T10:37:14+00:00", "symbol": "energy stocks", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "SPR release won't fix structural Hormuz-driven supply gap; go long oil, energy stocks, gold, and silver as the smart-money play for the next 90+ days.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE is the primary US energy equity sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE G7 IS ABOUT TO MAKE THE BIGGEST MISTAKE IN ENERGY MARKET HISTORY\n\nThis morning, G7 finance ministers are holding an emergency call to discuss dumping 300-400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves onto the market.\n\nThey think this will fix $108 oil.\n\nBut it won't. Let me explain why:\n\nLet's do the math that nobody on CNBC will do for you.\n\nGlobal oil consumption runs approximately 103 million barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed somewhere between 4 and 6 million barrels per day from available supply. \n\nThat's happening RIGHT NOW. \n\nIraq has already cut 1.5 million barrels per day because it literally ran out of storage space. Kuwait is cutting production. Bahrain declared force majeure.\n\nSo take 400 million barrels - the high end of what they're discussing - and divide it by the daily supply gap.\n\nYou get roughly 67 to 100 days of coverage.\n\nTwo to three months.\n\nThat's it. That's the whole plan.\n\nAnd then what?\n\nYou can't release reserves you've already released.\n\nThe market figured this out in about 4 hours. \n\nOil spiked over 20% overnight, the G7 leak hit the wires, and prices pulled back to... still up 12-15%. \n\nTraders looked at the arithmetic and said: \"Thanks, but that doesn't solve anything.\"\n\nAnd they're right.\n\nHere's the part that should terrify you:\n\nThe US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at roughly 411 million barrels. \n\nThat sounds like a lot until you remember it held 727 million barrels at its peak. \n\nThe previous administration drained 180 million barrels in 2022 to fight $90 oil. That release bought consumers about 18 cents per gallon of relief.\n\nTHIS disruption is structurally larger, geographically more dangerous, and has no visible end date.\n\nIn 2022, the threat was Russian supply being redirected. Tankers still moved. Alternatives existed. The Strait of Hormuz was wide open.\n\nToday, the world's most critical energy chokepoint is effectively closed. And that not by a naval blockade but by insurance companies refusing to cover ships transiting it. \n\nAnd the political situation just got worse, not better.\n\nThe conditions for oil to return to pre-war levels require the Strait to reopen, Iraqi production to restore, and Gulf shipping insurance to normalize. \n\nNONE of those conditions are achievable through reserve releases. They require the conflict to end or dramatically de-escalate.\n\nNothing happening right now suggests either outcome.\n\nFor 45 years I've watched governments try to solve structural supply problems with temporary demand-side gimmicks. It never works. \n\nIt didn't work in the 1970s when Nixon tried price controls. It didn't work in 2022 when Biden drained the SPR. And it won't work now.\n\nStrategic reserves exist for genuine emergencies.\n\nThis IS a genuine emergency. But using 25-30% of the world's total strategic stockpile (roughly a third of the entire 1.2 billion barrel IEA reserve) when the underlying crisis has no resolution in sight isn't strategy...\n\nIt's PANIC.\n\nThe smart money isn't waiting for G7 announcements. \n\nThey're looking at what happens in 90 days when the reserves are depleted, the Strait is still closed, and the new Supreme Leader is still in power:\n\nEnergy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet.\n\nThe G7 can release every barrel they have. It doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't bring stability to Iran. It doesn't fix a 4-6 million barrel per day supply gap that grows wider every week.\n\nArithmetic doesn't care about press conferences.\n\nAnd neither should you.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.004438962700696658, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.004438962700696658, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.013122853672234536, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.013122853672234536, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008683890971537878, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008683890971537878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.012784102711190237, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.012784102711190237, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.011177087134700558, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.011177087134700558, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0016070155764896787, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0016070155764896787, "ret_p1w": 0.028054079468178728, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.028054079468178728, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04167689272064745, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04167689272064745, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.013622813252468724, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013622813252468724, "ret_p1m": 0.0751610561689291, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0751610561689291, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10059295517482114, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.10059295517482114, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.025431899005892045, "bench_c_p1m": -0.025431899005892045, "ret_p3m": 0.04996193458158982, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.04996193458158982, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0692939278273359, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0692939278273359, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11925586240892572, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11925586240892572, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0751610561689291, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10059295517482114, "alpha_c_stated": 0.10059295517482114, "price_path": [-0.187, -0.1908, -0.1988, -0.2044, -0.2287, -0.2116, -0.2231, -0.2231, -0.215, -0.2099, -0.2122, -0.2122, -0.2152, -0.2077, -0.2017, -0.2061, -0.2061, -0.1895, -0.1674, -0.1896, -0.1987, -0.1735, -0.1713, -0.1772, -0.1655, -0.1467, -0.1547, -0.1532, -0.1532, -0.1548, -0.1344, -0.1316, -0.1266, -0.1261, -0.1181, -0.1113, -0.1032, -0.0936, -0.1113, -0.0826, -0.062, -0.073, -0.0545, -0.0476, -0.0487, -0.0238, -0.0415, -0.035, -0.035, -0.0456, -0.0273, -0.0202, -0.0256, -0.0208, -0.0217, -0.0257, -0.0225, -0.0071, 0.0128, 0.0036, -0.0023, 0.0028, 0.0044, 0.0, -0.0128, 0.0117, 0.0211, 0.0245, 0.0281, 0.0389, 0.0375, 0.054, 0.0531, 0.0657, 0.0873, 0.0825, 0.0995, 0.1181, 0.1073, 0.0948, 0.0539, 0.0589, 0.0589, 0.0666, 0.0752, 0.0375, 0.0246, 0.0176, 0.0207, -0.0001, -0.0035, 0.0112, -0.0167, -0.0158, -0.0015, 0.0105, 0.0183, 0.0164, 0.0146, 0.0314, 0.055, 0.066, 0.0517, 0.0614, 0.0625, 0.0187, -0.0001, -0.0045, 0.0217, 0.0289, 0.0299, 0.0378, 0.0623, 0.0827, 0.0954, 0.0687, 0.0568, 0.0632, 0.0632, 0.0339, 0.0185, 0.0178, 0.006, 0.024, 0.0358, 0.0492, 0.05, 0.0307, 0.0425, 0.0257, 0.041, 0.0208, 0.0285, -0.0072, -0.0106, -0.023, -0.039, -0.039, -0.0269, -0.0197, -0.0357, -0.0263, -0.0308, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2030956067258077512", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-03-09T10:37:14+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "SPR release won't fix structural Hormuz-driven supply gap; go long oil, energy stocks, gold, and silver as the smart-money play for the next 90+ days.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE G7 IS ABOUT TO MAKE THE BIGGEST MISTAKE IN ENERGY MARKET HISTORY\n\nThis morning, G7 finance ministers are holding an emergency call to discuss dumping 300-400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves onto the market.\n\nThey think this will fix $108 oil.\n\nBut it won't. Let me explain why:\n\nLet's do the math that nobody on CNBC will do for you.\n\nGlobal oil consumption runs approximately 103 million barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed somewhere between 4 and 6 million barrels per day from available supply. \n\nThat's happening RIGHT NOW. \n\nIraq has already cut 1.5 million barrels per day because it literally ran out of storage space. Kuwait is cutting production. Bahrain declared force majeure.\n\nSo take 400 million barrels - the high end of what they're discussing - and divide it by the daily supply gap.\n\nYou get roughly 67 to 100 days of coverage.\n\nTwo to three months.\n\nThat's it. That's the whole plan.\n\nAnd then what?\n\nYou can't release reserves you've already released.\n\nThe market figured this out in about 4 hours. \n\nOil spiked over 20% overnight, the G7 leak hit the wires, and prices pulled back to... still up 12-15%. \n\nTraders looked at the arithmetic and said: \"Thanks, but that doesn't solve anything.\"\n\nAnd they're right.\n\nHere's the part that should terrify you:\n\nThe US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at roughly 411 million barrels. \n\nThat sounds like a lot until you remember it held 727 million barrels at its peak. \n\nThe previous administration drained 180 million barrels in 2022 to fight $90 oil. That release bought consumers about 18 cents per gallon of relief.\n\nTHIS disruption is structurally larger, geographically more dangerous, and has no visible end date.\n\nIn 2022, the threat was Russian supply being redirected. Tankers still moved. Alternatives existed. The Strait of Hormuz was wide open.\n\nToday, the world's most critical energy chokepoint is effectively closed. And that not by a naval blockade but by insurance companies refusing to cover ships transiting it. \n\nAnd the political situation just got worse, not better.\n\nThe conditions for oil to return to pre-war levels require the Strait to reopen, Iraqi production to restore, and Gulf shipping insurance to normalize. \n\nNONE of those conditions are achievable through reserve releases. They require the conflict to end or dramatically de-escalate.\n\nNothing happening right now suggests either outcome.\n\nFor 45 years I've watched governments try to solve structural supply problems with temporary demand-side gimmicks. It never works. \n\nIt didn't work in the 1970s when Nixon tried price controls. It didn't work in 2022 when Biden drained the SPR. And it won't work now.\n\nStrategic reserves exist for genuine emergencies.\n\nThis IS a genuine emergency. But using 25-30% of the world's total strategic stockpile (roughly a third of the entire 1.2 billion barrel IEA reserve) when the underlying crisis has no resolution in sight isn't strategy...\n\nIt's PANIC.\n\nThe smart money isn't waiting for G7 announcements. \n\nThey're looking at what happens in 90 days when the reserves are depleted, the Strait is still closed, and the new Supreme Leader is still in power:\n\nEnergy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet.\n\nThe G7 can release every barrel they have. It doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't bring stability to Iran. It doesn't fix a 4-6 million barrel per day supply gap that grows wider every week.\n\nArithmetic doesn't care about press conferences.\n\nAnd neither should you.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0020739656505615045, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0020739656505615045, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.010757856622099382, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.010757856622099382, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008683890971537878, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008683890971537878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01127967872100144, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01127967872100144, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01288669429749112, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01288669429749112, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0016070155764896787, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0016070155764896787, "ret_p1w": -0.025606852760193033, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.025606852760193033, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.011984039507724309, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.011984039507724309, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.013622813252468724, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013622813252468724, "ret_p1m": -0.08617442559392319, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08617442559392319, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.06074252658803114, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.06074252658803114, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.025431899005892045, "bench_c_p1m": -0.025431899005892045, "ret_p3m": -0.12964258337857937, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.12964258337857937, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.24889844578750508, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.24889844578750508, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11925586240892572, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11925586240892572, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.08617442559392319, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.06074252658803114, "alpha_c_stated": -0.06074252658803114, "price_path": [-0.1767, -0.1678, -0.1631, -0.1624, -0.1622, -0.155, -0.1565, -0.1556, -0.1361, -0.1246, -0.1282, -0.1282, -0.1181, -0.1565, -0.1558, -0.1613, -0.1613, -0.1571, -0.135, -0.1256, -0.134, -0.1292, -0.1229, -0.1064, -0.1077, -0.0986, -0.1041, -0.1084, -0.1084, -0.0747, -0.0612, -0.0439, -0.0307, -0.0166, 0.0076, 0.0466, 0.0495, -0.0584, -0.0961, -0.0386, -0.0393, -0.0649, -0.0361, -0.0116, -0.0214, -0.0104, -0.0447, -0.021, -0.021, -0.0515, -0.0302, -0.0274, -0.0083, 0.0185, 0.0044, 0.0019, 0.0105, 0.0237, 0.037, -0.0093, -0.0015, -0.0135, 0.0021, 0.0, 0.0113, 0.0079, -0.012, -0.0247, -0.0256, -0.0281, -0.0588, -0.0976, -0.1252, -0.1449, -0.1448, -0.119, -0.1521, -0.1224, -0.1226, -0.0894, -0.0735, -0.0913, -0.0913, -0.095, -0.0862, -0.0804, -0.0733, -0.0749, -0.0787, -0.0581, -0.0679, -0.0687, -0.0563, -0.0644, -0.0909, -0.0789, -0.0878, -0.0831, -0.0902, -0.1071, -0.1166, -0.1034, -0.1044, -0.1224, -0.1148, -0.088, -0.0864, -0.082, -0.0802, -0.0838, -0.0889, -0.0959, -0.1169, -0.1145, -0.1292, -0.1167, -0.1175, -0.1242, -0.1242, -0.1239, -0.1355, -0.1265, -0.1173, -0.1297, -0.1282, -0.1368, -0.1296, -0.1615, -0.1593, -0.173, -0.2073, -0.1824, -0.182, -0.1608, -0.1585, -0.1776, -0.1808, -0.1808, -0.1861, -0.2015, -0.2256, -0.2181, -0.2093, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2030956067258077512", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-03-09T10:37:14+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "SPR release won't fix structural Hormuz-driven supply gap; go long oil, energy stocks, gold, and silver as the smart-money play for the next 90+ days.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE G7 IS ABOUT TO MAKE THE BIGGEST MISTAKE IN ENERGY MARKET HISTORY\n\nThis morning, G7 finance ministers are holding an emergency call to discuss dumping 300-400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves onto the market.\n\nThey think this will fix $108 oil.\n\nBut it won't. Let me explain why:\n\nLet's do the math that nobody on CNBC will do for you.\n\nGlobal oil consumption runs approximately 103 million barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz closure has removed somewhere between 4 and 6 million barrels per day from available supply. \n\nThat's happening RIGHT NOW. \n\nIraq has already cut 1.5 million barrels per day because it literally ran out of storage space. Kuwait is cutting production. Bahrain declared force majeure.\n\nSo take 400 million barrels - the high end of what they're discussing - and divide it by the daily supply gap.\n\nYou get roughly 67 to 100 days of coverage.\n\nTwo to three months.\n\nThat's it. That's the whole plan.\n\nAnd then what?\n\nYou can't release reserves you've already released.\n\nThe market figured this out in about 4 hours. \n\nOil spiked over 20% overnight, the G7 leak hit the wires, and prices pulled back to... still up 12-15%. \n\nTraders looked at the arithmetic and said: \"Thanks, but that doesn't solve anything.\"\n\nAnd they're right.\n\nHere's the part that should terrify you:\n\nThe US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at roughly 411 million barrels. \n\nThat sounds like a lot until you remember it held 727 million barrels at its peak. \n\nThe previous administration drained 180 million barrels in 2022 to fight $90 oil. That release bought consumers about 18 cents per gallon of relief.\n\nTHIS disruption is structurally larger, geographically more dangerous, and has no visible end date.\n\nIn 2022, the threat was Russian supply being redirected. Tankers still moved. Alternatives existed. The Strait of Hormuz was wide open.\n\nToday, the world's most critical energy chokepoint is effectively closed. And that not by a naval blockade but by insurance companies refusing to cover ships transiting it. \n\nAnd the political situation just got worse, not better.\n\nThe conditions for oil to return to pre-war levels require the Strait to reopen, Iraqi production to restore, and Gulf shipping insurance to normalize. \n\nNONE of those conditions are achievable through reserve releases. They require the conflict to end or dramatically de-escalate.\n\nNothing happening right now suggests either outcome.\n\nFor 45 years I've watched governments try to solve structural supply problems with temporary demand-side gimmicks. It never works. \n\nIt didn't work in the 1970s when Nixon tried price controls. It didn't work in 2022 when Biden drained the SPR. And it won't work now.\n\nStrategic reserves exist for genuine emergencies.\n\nThis IS a genuine emergency. But using 25-30% of the world's total strategic stockpile (roughly a third of the entire 1.2 billion barrel IEA reserve) when the underlying crisis has no resolution in sight isn't strategy...\n\nIt's PANIC.\n\nThe smart money isn't waiting for G7 announcements. \n\nThey're looking at what happens in 90 days when the reserves are depleted, the Strait is still closed, and the new Supreme Leader is still in power:\n\nEnergy stocks. Gold. Silver. Real assets that don't depend on politicians solving a military conflict with a spreadsheet.\n\nThe G7 can release every barrel they have. It doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't bring stability to Iran. It doesn't fix a 4-6 million barrel per day supply gap that grows wider every week.\n\nArithmetic doesn't care about press conferences.\n\nAnd neither should you.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.029644769122107895, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.029644769122107895, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.020960878150570017, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.020960878150570017, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008683890971537878, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008683890971537878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.023383518422023686, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023383518422023686, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.024990533998513365, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.024990533998513365, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0016070155764896787, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0016070155764896787, "ret_p1w": -0.06440072550412157, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06440072550412157, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.050777912251652846, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.050777912251652846, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.013622813252468724, "bench_c_p1w": -0.013622813252468724, "ret_p1m": -0.1574239631808121, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1574239631808121, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.13199206417492004, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.13199206417492004, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.025431899005892045, "bench_c_p1m": -0.025431899005892045, "ret_p3m": -0.1441349153001722, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1441349153001722, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2633907777090979, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2633907777090979, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11925586240892572, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11925586240892572, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1574239631808121, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.13199206417492004, "alpha_c_stated": -0.13199206417492004, "price_path": [-0.2835, -0.2637, -0.2832, -0.2575, -0.2623, -0.23, -0.242, -0.2214, -0.2018, -0.1715, -0.1666, -0.1666, -0.0912, -0.1565, -0.1186, -0.1768, -0.1768, -0.1599, -0.1173, -0.0581, -0.0933, -0.1093, -0.0751, -0.0132, 0.0043, 0.0805, 0.0647, 0.0353, 0.0353, 0.0911, 0.0728, 0.1133, 0.1872, 0.2566, 0.2981, 0.3493, 0.349, -0.036, -0.0744, -0.0166, 0.0118, -0.1478, -0.1031, -0.0284, -0.062, -0.0217, -0.1346, -0.1091, -0.1091, -0.1519, -0.1044, -0.0926, -0.021, 0.0295, 0.0105, 0.0227, 0.028, 0.086, 0.0423, -0.0457, -0.0373, -0.051, -0.0296, 0.0, 0.0234, -0.0045, -0.0227, -0.0712, -0.0644, -0.0843, -0.1222, -0.1607, -0.2139, -0.2018, -0.1956, -0.1668, -0.2235, -0.1894, -0.1883, -0.1293, -0.1293, -0.1593, -0.1593, -0.1555, -0.1574, -0.1379, -0.1261, -0.1173, -0.1275, -0.0795, -0.082, -0.0897, -0.0592, -0.0781, -0.1248, -0.1008, -0.1262, -0.121, -0.1269, -0.1541, -0.1715, -0.1482, -0.1274, -0.1574, -0.1578, -0.1039, -0.0851, -0.0671, -0.0033, 0.0037, 0.0139, -0.0351, -0.1178, -0.1063, -0.1452, -0.1218, -0.1126, -0.1265, -0.1265, -0.1091, -0.1375, -0.1265, -0.1269, -0.1353, -0.1312, -0.154, -0.1441, -0.2133, -0.2131, -0.246, -0.2632, -0.2228, -0.2168, -0.189, -0.19, -0.2255, -0.2396, -0.2396, -0.2473, -0.2879, -0.3384, -0.3309, -0.3192, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2005677928122827149", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-29T16:30:56+00:00", "symbol": "IREN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "No small matter that there will be a ton of more shares forthcoming", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish IREN on significant upcoming share dilution.", "resolved_tickers": ["IREN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Capital Markets'", "bench_c_industry": "Capital Markets", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@JG_Nuke @RealJimChanos @daChartLife @davevermilion @MichaelMOTTCM @OHare888 @LynAldenContact @APompliano Well played! While you picked the wrong company, the judges declare that you have the right idea. \n\nThe answer is shares outstanding of $IREN !\n\nNo small matter that there will be a ton of more shares forthcoming.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @RealJimChanos @daChartLife @davevermilion @MichaelMOTTCM @OHare888 @LynAldenContact @APompliano $MSTR shares outstanding?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JG_Nuke", "ret_m1d": 0.022583085336065567, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.022583085336065567, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.019006686783324067, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01716015415575889, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0035763985527415, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005422931180306678, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.028165455839869846, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.028165455839869846, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.026944242226504822, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02563472680071921, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012212136133650242, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0025307290391506365, "ret_p1w": 0.22405485575343165, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.22405485575343165, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.22424379150457163, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.209412795502814, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.00018893575113998473, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01464206025061765, "ret_p1m": 0.5222025351620521, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.5222025351620521, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.5110954680015476, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.5641403704132262, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.011107067160504469, "bench_c_p1m": -0.041937835251174116, "ret_p3m": -0.04973354712157807, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.04973354712157807, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.009869884051571964, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.05904933809732282, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.059603431173150034, "bench_c_p3m": -0.1087828852189009, "ret_p6m": 0.388480117548043, "ret_signed_p6m": -0.388480117548043, "alpha_spy_p6m": -0.3163299430634683, "alpha_c_p6m": -0.4060746138644533, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.07215017448457473, "bench_c_p6m": -0.017594496316410302, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.5222025351620521, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.5110954680015476, "alpha_c_stated": -0.5641403704132262, "price_path": [0.1946, 0.1931, 0.2804, 0.4654, 0.5651, 0.5247, 0.6201, 0.5166, 0.6275, 0.765, 0.7249, 0.5689, 0.5407, 0.5027, 0.4005, 0.3151, 0.4174, 0.596, 0.6491, 0.5839, 0.5331, 0.4773, 0.5415, 0.7191, 0.6907, 0.9388, 0.6991, 0.5828, 0.5268, 0.456, 0.4133, 0.2345, 0.1766, 0.203, 0.2395, 0.1629, 0.103, 0.0723, 0.2304, 0.2045, 0.2294, 0.2294, 0.2131, 0.2304, 0.0434, 0.1155, 0.1786, 0.1345, 0.1758, 0.1885, 0.1144, 0.1149, 0.0183, -0.0997, -0.0716, -0.1429, -0.0916, 0.0129, 0.0667, 0.0675, 0.0652, 0.0652, 0.0226, 0.0, -0.0282, -0.0416, -0.0416, 0.0835, 0.2241, 0.1649, 0.107, 0.1591, 0.168, 0.2771, 0.3446, 0.3418, 0.3167, 0.4671, 0.4671, 0.3768, 0.357, 0.3261, 0.4382, 0.3286, 0.5222, 0.5971, 0.5184, 0.3636, 0.3469, 0.3801, 0.1403, 0.0096, 0.0614, 0.171, 0.0893, 0.0827, 0.0157, 0.0713, 0.0713, 0.0396, 0.0677, 0.0985, 0.0145, 0.0749, 0.1533, 0.1172, 0.1226, 0.0391, 0.0502, -0.0142, 0.1124, 0.0181, -0.0688, -0.0145, -0.0327, 0.0652, 0.0497, 0.0551, 0.1403, 0.0901, 0.071, 0.0571, 0.0477, 0.0698, 0.0434, 0.0513, -0.0497, -0.1096, -0.1977, -0.1302, -0.135, -0.1177, -0.1177, -0.1086, -0.0931, -0.0655, -0.0596, -0.0023, 0.0929, 0.202, 0.2388, 0.2104, 0.221, 0.2362, 0.1462, 0.2279, 0.32, 0.285, 0.2271, 0.1276, 0.0875, 0.1548, 0.1586, 0.2555, 0.389, 0.5473, 0.4425, 0.5529, 0.3994, 0.4352, 0.3999, 0.4819, 0.3433, 0.2804, 0.2114, 0.3375, 0.4732, 0.442, 0.442, 0.5169, 0.7214, 0.6252, 0.6123, 0.6577, 0.6899, 0.6615, 0.5697, 0.3791, 0.5019, 0.3707, 0.3073, 0.439, 0.5166, 0.544, 0.5016, 0.4745, 0.5214, 0.5214, 0.443, 0.3885]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2008187693034045561", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-05T14:43:50+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Confirms active short position in Tesla.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@ericpschen I am short", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Then short Tesla if you're truly convinced.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "ericpschen", "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2009384648879603806", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-08T22:00:07+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is very overvalued. 6x book value and 20x revenues!!!", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "OPEN is very overvalued at 6x book and 20x revenues; bearish fundamental verdict.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@6zapdos6 $OPEN is very overvalued. \n6x book value and 20x revenues!!!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 To profit while you can", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "6zapdos6", "ret_m1d": -0.11796984060556881, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.11796984060556881, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.11139990709524794, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.11648835047979422, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006569933510320869, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0014814901257745872, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03703703461445329, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03703703461445329, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03860746761511713, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.040000014866002465, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00157043300066384, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0029629802515491743, "ret_p1w": -0.08504799572063182, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08504799572063182, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.08157569798548903, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.1272701773430185, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.003472297735142793, "bench_c_p1w": 0.04222218162238667, "ret_p1m": -0.3223593850383544, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.3223593850383544, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.3221864641337553, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.365569290513966, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00017292090459908316, "bench_c_p1m": 0.043209905475611654, "ret_p3m": -0.36351167479208524, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.36351167479208524, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3401512628937833, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.41845622939281135, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.023360411898301958, "bench_c_p3m": 0.054944554600726114, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.3223593850383544, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.3221864641337553, "alpha_c_stated": 0.365569290513966, "price_path": [0.048, 0.0123, -0.0247, -0.0178, 0.011, -0.0453, -0.0645, -0.0357, 0.0933, 0.1193, 0.0933, 0.0494, 0.0069, 0.0658, 0.0412, -0.0508, -0.0082, -0.1001, -0.1001, 0.0933, 0.1632, 0.2853, 0.1742, 0.1139, 0.0754, 0.0316, -0.0823, -0.155, -0.0741, 0.0549, 0.0617, 0.0672, 0.0672, 0.0562, -0.0206, -0.0412, -0.048, 0.0398, -0.0192, -0.0329, 0.0165, -0.0398, -0.0329, -0.1001, -0.1125, -0.0768, -0.1605, -0.1385, -0.1276, -0.1193, -0.1399, -0.1385, -0.1385, -0.1756, -0.2003, -0.1989, -0.2003, -0.2003, -0.1674, -0.1331, -0.0494, -0.1605, -0.118, 0.0, -0.037, -0.0713, -0.0892, -0.1358, -0.085, -0.085, -0.1235, -0.1111, -0.1193, -0.1756, -0.1948, -0.203, -0.2099, -0.2346, -0.2936, -0.3388, -0.2963, -0.3141, -0.3553, -0.3306, -0.3224, -0.3567, -0.3471, -0.3992, -0.3903, -0.3903, -0.406, -0.3649, -0.3621, -0.3141, -0.3443, -0.299, -0.3169, -0.2579, -0.2565, -0.3073, -0.3182, -0.3306, -0.2894, -0.3141, -0.3032, -0.3128, -0.2771, -0.3361, -0.321, -0.2894, -0.2373, -0.2757, -0.2949, -0.3265, -0.2853, -0.2894, -0.3004, -0.3278, -0.3416, -0.3923, -0.358, -0.3731, -0.3498, -0.3498, -0.3676, -0.3759, -0.3635, -0.4088, -0.4074, -0.4019, -0.3813, -0.3388, -0.2771, -0.2743, -0.2661, -0.2524, -0.2551, -0.284, -0.2442, -0.2606, -0.2483, -0.2346, -0.262, -0.2538, -0.2963, -0.2826, -0.251, -0.2702, -0.3128, -0.3347, -0.3539, -0.3717, -0.3868, -0.3992, -0.4129, -0.4102, -0.3964, -0.3731, -0.3786, -0.3786, -0.3855, -0.3484, -0.3045, -0.3086, -0.2716, -0.2579, -0.332, -0.321, -0.3937, -0.4088, -0.4047, -0.3855, -0.3868, -0.3909, -0.3676, -0.3484, -0.3896, -0.3868, -0.3868, -0.4129, -0.4239, -0.4129, -0.4102, -0.4005, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2047662412812173491", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-24T13:02:17+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Nobody explained why a company with shrinking revenue deserves a $1.5 trillion market cap. Nobody made the case for 300x earnings on a business that just discontinued two of its flagship vehicles. And every great bubble in financial history has looked exactly like this in its final innings.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: shrinking revenue, 300x earnings, $1.5T cap unjustified, compares to historic bubbles in their final innings.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "More than 800 comments.\n\nPlenty of people agreeing and bringing up even more points.\n\nBut look at the ones disagreeing.\n\nNot one argument. Not one number. Not one counter-thesis.\n\nJust insults and recycled claims I literally debunk in the post.\n\nThat's the entire case for Tesla in 2026.\n\nI spent 45 years on Wall Street. I worked as Peter Lynch's assistant at Fidelity. I ran the #1 mutual fund in the country in 1984. I founded two hedge funds that each crossed a billion dollars. I've watched the Nifty Fifty, the 1987 crash, the Japan bubble, the dot-com mania, and 2008 play out in real time.\n\nAnd the most sophisticated response the Tesla cult can bring up is a slur.\n\nBut what NO ONE did in these comments:\n\nNobody challenged a delivery number. Nobody defended the 50,000 vehicle inventory gap. Nobody explained why a company with shrinking revenue deserves a $1.5 trillion market cap. Nobody addressed the 38% sequential collapse in energy storage deployments. Nobody made the case for 300x earnings on a business that just discontinued two of its flagship vehicles.\n\nAnd none of the dozens of other arguments.\n\nBECAUSE THEY CAN'T\n\nThey don't own Tesla because they ran a DCF. They own it because a billionaire on social media told them to.\n\nThis is nothing more than a fan club with a brokerage account.\n\nAnd every great bubble in financial history has looked exactly like this in its final innings. \n\nTulip traders didn't debate horticulture. Pets .com shareholders didn't model unit economics. Bear Stearns clients didn't stress-test the mortgage book. \n\nThey got angry at anyone who asked questions. They called the skeptics names. They treated doubt as heresy.\n\nThen the math showed up like it ALWAYS DOES.\n\nI don't need anyone in my replies to agree with me. I'm writing down what I see and letting the scoreboard do the talking.\n\nEnergy up 24% this year. Gold at all-time highs. Since I called Valaris and Tidewater on December 24, VAL is up 65% and TDW is up 50%. \n\nThe unglamorous, \"boring\", cash-generating corners of the market have been DESTROYING the crowded narrative trades.\n\nMeanwhile the people screaming at me are down 14% YTD and holding.\n\nWho's the delusional one here?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.\n\nLet me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:\n\nElon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 \"simply does not have the https://t.co/f0V8Za3yri", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.006856196268826498, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.006856196268826498, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0008335229561829971, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0011479268799720055, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007689719225009495, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008004123148798503, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0062982346841573555, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0062982346841573555, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.004575446846593723, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.013459835503634499, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.001722787837563633, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007161600819477143, "ret_p1w": 0.038586287542583086, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.038586287542583086, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.029187751346553492, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.03909189111151312, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009398536196029594, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0005056035689300353, "ret_p1m": 0.13210210891637209, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13210210891637209, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08770063798125993, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12797374306188725, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04440147093511215, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004128365854484839, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13210210891637209, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08770063798125993, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12797374306188725, "price_path": [0.1451, 0.1466, 0.107, 0.1438, 0.1209, 0.1213, 0.079, 0.0556, 0.0925, 0.109, 0.13, 0.1381, 0.1083, 0.1093, 0.1093, 0.0912, 0.0931, 0.0941, 0.0944, 0.0625, 0.0879, 0.1092, 0.0858, 0.0697, 0.0718, 0.0429, 0.0788, 0.0777, 0.0543, 0.0595, 0.061, 0.0838, 0.0497, 0.0396, 0.0512, 0.061, 0.0438, 0.0106, -0.0222, 0.0121, 0.0179, 0.0256, -0.0111, -0.0385, -0.0559, -0.0121, 0.0132, -0.0417, -0.0417, -0.0624, -0.0788, -0.0878, -0.0815, -0.0727, -0.0635, -0.0322, 0.0416, 0.0335, 0.0646, 0.0431, 0.0269, 0.0298, -0.0069, 0.0, 0.0063, -0.0007, -0.0093, 0.0142, 0.0386, 0.0431, 0.0347, 0.0596, 0.0943, 0.1383, 0.1826, 0.1519, 0.1833, 0.178, 0.1221, 0.0895, 0.0739, 0.1088, 0.1104, 0.1321, 0.1321, 0.1522, 0.1702, 0.1749, 0.1581, 0.1052, 0.1261, 0.126, 0.112, 0.0391, 0.0868, 0.0542, 0.0141, 0.0607, 0.0801, 0.0926, 0.0754, 0.0534, 0.0643, 0.0643, 0.0764, 0.0141, -0.002, -0.0031, 0.0091, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2024197743472767070", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-18T19:02:04+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short from $7.5. Fair value is MUCH lower. The stock remains grossly overvalued. I believe the stock will go much lower in the coming months. $OPEN fair value is $1.50 IMHO.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Short OPEN from $7.5; stock grossly overvalued at 18x adj. revenues with no profits; PT $1.50 in coming months.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I have no special insight about the upcoming OPEN earnings release, nor do I really care - I am short from $7.5. \nFair value is MUCH lower. The stock remains grossly overvalued. $OPEN has lost every year since inception and remains a low margin, asset heavy home flipper selling on 18x adjusted revenues. \n\n@nejatian will undoubtedly try to spin things as much as possible.\nAny “beat” should be discounted as they set a very low bar for sales and earnings.\nLet’s see if he reveals anything new of substance.\n\nSo many haters told me I had to cover \n\n- when the warrants were issued\n\n- when 3q earnings were released\n\n- when the short interest was high\n\n- when various new management        appointments were announced \n\n- when @ericjackson hyped his  $82 price target on on the following shows:\n\n@cvpayne\n@APompliano \n@natbrunell \n@philrosenn \n@Downtown\n@baystreetamber \n@AnnBerry_NYC \n@KyleReidhead \n@carlquintanilla \n@YahooFinance \n@CNBC \n\nWRONG WRONG AND WRONG\n\nTo all of media friends, why do you platform Eric? \nHe is guilty of analytical malpractice and unethical, reckless promotion. \nHe has hurt countless individual investors. Why do you aid and abet such irresponsible behavior? \nShame on you.\n\nI believe the stock will go much lower in the coming months. $OPEN fair value is\n$1.50 IMHO.\n\n@DougKass @m3_melody @dayetweets @RealJimChanos", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 What do you think for $OPEN tomorrow after earnings?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "NarcissistX10", "ret_m1d": -0.06479485600857027, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.06479485600857027, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05978239974675059, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.07840493606655063, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0050124562618196755, "bench_c_m1d": 0.013610080057980367, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004319650201332292, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.004319650201332292, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.006956994524881854, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007779877913270172, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637344323549562, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00346022771193788, "ret_p1w": 0.07559393001760895, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07559393001760895, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0655980749522771, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07351788275583138, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009995855065331849, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0020760472617775694, "ret_p1m": 0.11015113162826795, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.11015113162826795, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.14874998635313585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.14313857623848514, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.038598854724867904, "bench_c_p1m": -0.03298744461021719, "ret_p3m": -0.07559393001760895, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07559393001760895, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15482762851527587, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09160454305074617, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07923369849766693, "bench_c_p3m": 0.016010613033137222, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.11015113162826795, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.14874998635313585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.14313857623848514, "price_path": [0.4579, 0.6609, 0.6717, 0.6803, 0.6803, 0.6631, 0.5421, 0.5097, 0.4989, 0.6371, 0.5443, 0.5227, 0.6004, 0.5119, 0.5227, 0.4168, 0.3974, 0.4536, 0.3218, 0.3564, 0.3737, 0.3866, 0.3542, 0.3564, 0.3564, 0.2981, 0.2592, 0.2613, 0.2592, 0.2592, 0.311, 0.365, 0.4968, 0.3218, 0.3888, 0.5745, 0.5162, 0.4622, 0.4341, 0.3607, 0.4406, 0.4406, 0.3801, 0.3996, 0.3866, 0.2981, 0.2678, 0.2549, 0.2441, 0.2052, 0.1123, 0.041, 0.108, 0.0799, 0.0151, 0.054, 0.067, 0.013, 0.0281, -0.054, -0.04, -0.04, -0.0648, 0.0, 0.0043, 0.0799, 0.0324, 0.1037, 0.0756, 0.1685, 0.1706, 0.0907, 0.0734, 0.054, 0.1188, 0.0799, 0.0972, 0.0821, 0.1382, 0.0454, 0.0691, 0.1188, 0.2009, 0.1404, 0.1102, 0.0605, 0.1253, 0.1188, 0.1015, 0.0583, 0.0367, -0.0432, 0.0108, -0.013, 0.0238, 0.0238, -0.0043, -0.0173, 0.0022, -0.0691, -0.067, -0.0583, -0.0259, 0.041, 0.1382, 0.1425, 0.1555, 0.1771, 0.1728, 0.1274, 0.1901, 0.1641, 0.1836, 0.2052, 0.162, 0.1749, 0.108, 0.1296, 0.1793, 0.149, 0.0821, 0.0475, 0.0173, -0.0108, -0.0346, -0.054, -0.0756, -0.0713, -0.0497, -0.013, -0.0216, -0.0216, -0.0324, 0.0259, 0.095, 0.0886, 0.1469, 0.1685, 0.0518, 0.0691, -0.0454, -0.0691, -0.0626, -0.0324, -0.0346, -0.041, -0.0043, 0.0259, -0.0389, -0.0346, -0.0346, -0.0756, -0.0929, -0.0756, -0.0713, -0.0562, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2026404916479103054", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-24T21:12:35+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$BTC bro. You are done. Cooked. Toast. EL finito. You can't defend the valuation. Nobody can.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisive bearish call on BTC: run is over, no defensible valuation, momentum gone, hype-driven narrative exhausted.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$BTC bro. \n\nYou are done.\n\nCooked. \n\nToast.\n\nEL finito.\n\nYou had a hell of a run - well played.\n\nBut now it is game over.\n\nIt always was based on hype, not fundamentals.\n\nNow that the mo is gone, all you are left with is the chart and narrative.\n\nYou can’t defend the valuation. Nobody can. \n\nFour year cycle, stock to flow, digital gold - what is the next BS narrative? \n\nI can’t wait for the haters to go nuts in their responses to this post.\n\nThe ad hominem attacks, the profanity, the hate - that is the way you roll.\n\nAre you capable of fact based, civil discourse? Most unlikely. \n\nOr will you just embarrass yourselves because you can’t be polite. \n\nIt will be my pleasure to block every single one of you. \n\nThe X audience will delight in your display of hate and ignorance \n\nThis will be glorious.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Well, that escalated quickly.\n\nNumber no go up no more.\n\nDigital gold they said.\n\nStore of value they said.\n\nMedium of exchange they said.\n\nSo much for the stock to flow model. \n\nIt always about narrative and momentum.\n\nYou were warned. \n\nHave fun getting poor.  $BTC #Bitcoin https://t.co/MOMbWWoZEL", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.008375389397939914, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.008375389397939914, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01674308650723988, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01674308650723988, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.008367697109299965, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008367697109299965, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.060550552894326426, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.060550552894326426, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06610499847353357, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.06610499847353357, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005554445579207146, "bench_c_p1d": -0.005554445579207146, "ret_p1w": 0.06575534711805453, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06575534711805453, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.07732570713192422, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.07732570713192422, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011570360013869685, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011570360013869685, "ret_p1m": 0.1128251403838132, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1128251403838132, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.17961914991080363, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.17961914991080363, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.06679400952699044, "bench_c_p1m": -0.06679400952699044, "ret_p3m": 0.1780304551966898, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1780304551966898, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0993659051668887, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0993659051668887, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.0786645500298011, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0786645500298011, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1128251403838132, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.17961914991080363, "alpha_c_stated": -0.17961914991080363, "price_path": [0.4246, 0.4188, 0.3471, 0.4256, 0.4595, 0.4379, 0.3949, 0.4145, 0.4465, 0.436, 0.4437, 0.4087, 0.3486, 0.3708, 0.3443, 0.3337, 0.3749, 0.3809, 0.3641, 0.3672, 0.3613, 0.3624, 0.3598, 0.38, 0.3656, 0.3847, 0.4036, 0.4651, 0.4627, 0.4249, 0.4205, 0.4125, 0.4231, 0.4875, 0.5126, 0.4911, 0.4907, 0.4443, 0.3781, 0.3948, 0.3961, 0.3968, 0.3775, 0.3905, 0.3918, 0.3196, 0.3129, 0.228, 0.1803, 0.1395, -0.0215, 0.1011, 0.0943, 0.0736, 0.0454, 0.0334, 0.0746, 0.0743, 0.0533, 0.0366, 0.0449, 0.0613, 0.0084, 0.0, 0.0606, 0.0526, 0.0281, 0.0733, 0.0658, 0.1347, 0.1055, 0.0633, 0.0675, 0.0912, 0.0956, 0.1001, 0.1075, 0.1682, 0.1536, 0.1118, 0.091, 0.1005, 0.1067, 0.1005, 0.1128, 0.0735, 0.0352, 0.0408, 0.0648, 0.0624, 0.0438, 0.0445, 0.0746, 0.1227, 0.1099, 0.12, 0.1389, 0.1624, 0.1576, 0.1674, 0.1728, 0.2036, 0.184, 0.1915, 0.2204, 0.2214, 0.2087, 0.2073, 0.1915, 0.1825, 0.1908, 0.22, 0.2458, 0.2629, 0.2707, 0.2486, 0.2514, 0.2754, 0.2559, 0.2372, 0.2648, 0.2339, 0.2009, 0.1977, 0.2088, 0.21, 0.178, 0.206, 0.1833, 0.1602, 0.1476, 0.145, 0.113, 0.0409, -0.001, -0.0043, -0.0493, -0.0154, -0.038, -0.0411, -0.0081, -0.0084, 0.0345, 0.0237, 0.0053, -0.0185, -0.0084, -0.002, -0.022, -0.0481, -0.068, -0.0634, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2023522286083465260", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-16T22:18:02+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "still remains wildly overvalued. My invaluable investment advice remains to desert from the $OPEN army", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Still bearish OPEN despite 40% decline; calls it wildly overvalued and advises to exit.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You got bagged by @ericjackson .You are still in denial. \n$OPEN has already declined by 40% but still remains wildly overvalued. My invaluable investment advice remains to desert from the $OPEN army. I am sure you soul agree that it is important to call out bad actors and charlatans. @ericjackson is an odious, opportunistic, financially illiterate carnival barker who belongs in jail. Your ire should more properly be directed  at him.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @rabois I’ll say it again... It’s really disturbing how you want to see the downfall of such a transformational company.. Instead of supporting them, potentially sharing invaluable advice from your investment years, you glee and hope for a bad demise.. It’s borderline evil!..", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JSherid3333", "ret_m1d": 0.02655894918743873, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02655894918743873, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.02816983307269616, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03657260425176778, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.010013655064329052, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06928410993552458, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06928410993552458, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06424640238494783, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08271144291666632, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013427332981141737, "ret_p1w": 0.18013861975792977, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18013861975792977, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.17354861572061098, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.18491780410764613, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004779184349716359, "ret_p1m": 0.21939960804645642, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.21939960804645642, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.25076812790502356, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.2630955494030335, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04369594135657706, "ret_p3m": 0.011547388363939648, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.011547388363939648, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.07388678694159778, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0210929730736531, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": -0.00954558470971345, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.21939960804645642, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.25076812790502356, "alpha_c_stated": -0.2630955494030335, "price_path": [0.4226, 0.5589, 0.776, 0.7875, 0.7968, 0.7968, 0.7783, 0.649, 0.6143, 0.6028, 0.7506, 0.6513, 0.6282, 0.7113, 0.6166, 0.6282, 0.515, 0.4942, 0.5543, 0.4134, 0.4503, 0.4688, 0.4827, 0.448, 0.4503, 0.4503, 0.388, 0.3464, 0.3487, 0.3464, 0.3464, 0.4018, 0.4596, 0.6005, 0.4134, 0.485, 0.6836, 0.6212, 0.5635, 0.5335, 0.455, 0.5404, 0.5404, 0.4758, 0.4965, 0.4827, 0.388, 0.3557, 0.3418, 0.3303, 0.2887, 0.1894, 0.1132, 0.1848, 0.1547, 0.0855, 0.127, 0.1409, 0.0831, 0.0993, 0.0115, 0.0266, 0.0266, 0.0, 0.0693, 0.0739, 0.1547, 0.1039, 0.1801, 0.1501, 0.2494, 0.2517, 0.1663, 0.1478, 0.127, 0.1963, 0.1547, 0.1732, 0.157, 0.2171, 0.1178, 0.1432, 0.1963, 0.2841, 0.2194, 0.1871, 0.1339, 0.2032, 0.1963, 0.1778, 0.1316, 0.1085, 0.0231, 0.0808, 0.0554, 0.0947, 0.0947, 0.0647, 0.0508, 0.0716, -0.0046, -0.0023, 0.0069, 0.0416, 0.1132, 0.2171, 0.2217, 0.2356, 0.2587, 0.254, 0.2055, 0.2725, 0.2448, 0.2656, 0.2887, 0.2425, 0.2564, 0.1848, 0.2079, 0.261, 0.2286, 0.157, 0.1201, 0.0878, 0.0577, 0.0323, 0.0115, -0.0115, -0.0069, 0.0162, 0.0554, 0.0462, 0.0462, 0.0346, 0.097, 0.1709, 0.164, 0.2263, 0.2494, 0.1247, 0.1432, 0.0208, -0.0046, 0.0023, 0.0346, 0.0323, 0.0254, 0.0647, 0.097, 0.0277, 0.0323, 0.0323, -0.0115, -0.03, -0.0115, -0.0069, 0.0092, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2006783342814048335", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-01T17:43:27+00:00", "symbol": "IONQ", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "New year, same story. You know what to do.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bearish thesis on quantum computing stocks; implies these names should be sold/shorted given physics constraints on scaling.", "resolved_tickers": ["IONQ"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Computer Hardware'", "bench_c_industry": "Computer Hardware", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "New year, same story. \nYou know what to do.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Another gem from Sabine Hossenfelder - breaking down why several leading researchers and physicists argue that quantum computers may never actually work at scale.\n\n$IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT \n\nBut sure, ignore the physics and take your favourite X account’s word for it.\n\nFor", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.040624364064198115, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.040624364064198115, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03879472467856748, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03833749333525305, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0022868707289450674, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0414795511593149, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0414795511593149, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03481934405107023, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.039262005240638276, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002217545918676622, "ret_p1w": 0.05730169508114491, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05730169508114491, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0413466217051599, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.044481163234768584, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012820531846376326, "ret_p1m": -0.17553985469567857, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.17553985469567857, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.19345632736003449, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.18219259845294755, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.006652743757268986, "ret_p3m": -0.4058156800613353, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4058156800613353, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3675521372629885, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3419054130781348, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06391026698320046, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.17553985469567857, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.19345632736003449, "alpha_c_stated": 0.18219259845294755, "price_path": [0.694, 0.5886, 0.657, 0.5106, 0.7552, 0.6581, 0.5482, 0.4024, 0.3457, 0.2816, 0.2722, 0.1856, 0.2694, 0.2893, 0.3427, 0.2219, 0.3066, 0.2865, 0.3338, 0.2487, 0.1413, 0.1847, 0.2279, 0.2673, 0.1839, 0.1636, 0.0842, -0.0293, 0.0088, 0.0218, 0.0502, 0.0237, -0.1234, -0.1082, -0.0002, 0.0062, 0.0028, 0.0028, 0.0541, 0.0075, 0.0034, 0.0402, 0.1708, 0.1266, 0.1623, 0.164, 0.1048, 0.1236, 0.0765, -0.015, 0.062, -0.0197, -0.0071, 0.0366, 0.1516, 0.0988, 0.0652, 0.0652, -0.0165, -0.0325, -0.0312, -0.0406, -0.0406, 0.0, 0.0415, 0.0853, 0.0644, 0.0787, 0.0573, 0.0894, 0.0464, 0.0879, 0.0169, 0.0862, 0.0862, 0.0832, 0.0334, 0.0547, 0.0103, -0.0727, -0.0274, -0.0207, -0.0755, -0.1452, -0.1755, -0.1775, -0.2444, -0.3494, -0.2519, -0.2414, -0.2476, -0.2814, -0.3308, -0.2707, -0.2707, -0.2906, -0.2871, -0.2852, -0.3179, -0.3419, -0.3239, -0.2818, -0.1259, -0.1796, -0.1802, -0.2078, -0.2061, -0.2298, -0.236, -0.2331, -0.2491, -0.2673, -0.2938, -0.2948, -0.2882, -0.2878, -0.3077, -0.3179, -0.3329, -0.2921, -0.3008, -0.3167, -0.362, -0.4118, -0.4315, -0.3836, -0.4058, -0.3735, -0.3735, -0.3748, -0.3908, -0.3802, -0.3996, -0.3844, -0.3637, -0.2354, -0.0753, -0.0447, -0.0145, 0.0331, -0.0105, 0.0126, -0.0671, -0.0872, -0.0626, -0.0789, -0.0996, -0.0353, -0.0122, -0.0218, 0.0263, 0.124, 0.0195, 0.0528, 0.2164, 0.1946, 0.1815, 0.2288, 0.1108, 0.0543, 0.0357, 0.1219, 0.2591, 0.3607, 0.3607, 0.3603, 0.3983, 0.4997, 0.5409, 0.4813, 0.5266, 0.4588, 0.4039, 0.214, 0.3427, 0.2121, 0.2108, 0.2399, 0.2369, 0.3081, 0.1986, 0.1693, 0.2091, 0.2091, 0.247, 0.2369, 0.146, 0.081, 0.0543, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2006783342814048335", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-01T17:43:27+00:00", "symbol": "RGTI", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "New year, same story. You know what to do.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bearish thesis on quantum computing stocks; implies these names should be sold/shorted given physics constraints on scaling.", "resolved_tickers": ["RGTI"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Computer Hardware'", "bench_c_industry": "Computer Hardware", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "New year, same story. \nYou know what to do.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Another gem from Sabine Hossenfelder - breaking down why several leading researchers and physicists argue that quantum computers may never actually work at scale.\n\n$IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT \n\nBut sure, ignore the physics and take your favourite X account’s word for it.\n\nFor", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.06144070930091872, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.06144070930091872, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.059611069915288084, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.05915383857197365, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0022868707289450674, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05974575528054715, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.05974575528054715, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.05308554817230249, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.05752820936187053, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002217545918676622, "ret_p1w": 0.04745758109242093, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04745758109242093, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.031502507716435924, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.034637049246044604, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012820531846376326, "ret_p1m": -0.24957632210979908, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.24957632210979908, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.267492794774155, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.25622906586706806, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.006652743757268986, "ret_p3m": -0.4279661109412547, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.4279661109412547, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.38970256814290793, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.36405584395805424, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06391026698320046, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.24957632210979908, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.267492794774155, "alpha_c_stated": 0.25622906586706806, "price_path": [0.8606, 0.8318, 0.9962, 0.861, 1.3267, 1.378, 1.3873, 1.0326, 0.9653, 0.8352, 0.6949, 0.528, 0.6778, 0.6458, 0.7051, 0.5708, 0.6699, 0.8017, 0.8758, 0.6576, 0.4907, 0.5801, 0.4559, 0.4309, 0.4017, 0.3305, 0.1992, 0.0678, 0.0797, 0.0462, 0.0894, 0.0788, -0.0339, -0.0004, 0.1258, 0.1051, 0.0835, 0.0835, 0.0835, -0.0064, 0.0119, 0.1034, 0.2737, 0.1911, 0.1975, 0.1958, 0.1068, 0.139, 0.0949, -0.003, 0.0153, -0.0479, -0.0331, 0.0068, 0.139, 0.064, 0.0386, 0.0386, -0.0517, -0.0564, -0.0504, -0.0614, -0.0614, 0.0, 0.0597, 0.0754, 0.0682, 0.0699, 0.0475, 0.0818, 0.0369, 0.0898, 0.0466, 0.0856, 0.0856, 0.0589, 0.003, 0.0576, -0.0064, -0.078, -0.0547, -0.0674, -0.1589, -0.2301, -0.2496, -0.2284, -0.2716, -0.3655, -0.2496, -0.2547, -0.2809, -0.3038, -0.3648, -0.3182, -0.3182, -0.3394, -0.3144, -0.2966, -0.3254, -0.3212, -0.3017, -0.253, -0.2102, -0.2619, -0.2504, -0.2814, -0.2475, -0.2809, -0.2792, -0.2542, -0.2801, -0.2822, -0.3191, -0.3148, -0.3161, -0.3127, -0.336, -0.347, -0.3695, -0.3271, -0.339, -0.3585, -0.3894, -0.4356, -0.4534, -0.4051, -0.428, -0.3987, -0.3987, -0.3983, -0.4136, -0.3843, -0.3936, -0.378, -0.3589, -0.2852, -0.1903, -0.1758, -0.1606, -0.1678, -0.2267, -0.2212, -0.2856, -0.2962, -0.2835, -0.3055, -0.3186, -0.2606, -0.2585, -0.25, -0.2258, -0.1487, -0.2229, -0.1975, -0.1309, -0.1919, -0.2197, -0.1835, -0.2436, -0.2958, -0.3237, -0.2847, -0.0661, 0.1195, 0.1195, 0.0621, 0.0432, 0.1453, 0.0822, 0.086, 0.139, 0.021, 0.0237, -0.1237, -0.0778, -0.1657, -0.1761, -0.1258, -0.111, -0.0381, -0.1254, -0.1422, -0.0949, -0.0949, -0.0941, -0.0983, -0.1725, -0.2199, -0.222, null]}
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{"unit_id": "quote:2006783342814048335", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-01-01T17:43:27+00:00", "symbol": "QUBT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "New year, same story. You know what to do.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses bearish thesis on quantum computing stocks; implies these names should be sold/shorted given physics constraints on scaling.", "resolved_tickers": ["QUBT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLK", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Computer Hardware'", "bench_c_industry": "Computer Hardware", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "New year, same story. \nYou know what to do.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Another gem from Sabine Hossenfelder - breaking down why several leading researchers and physicists argue that quantum computers may never actually work at scale.\n\n$IONQ $RGTI $QBTS $QUBT \n\nBut sure, ignore the physics and take your favourite X account’s word for it.\n\nFor", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.06811988959206128, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.06811988959206128, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.06629025020643065, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.06583301886311621, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0022868707289450674, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.08628517615949383, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.08628517615949383, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.07962496905124916, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0840676302408172, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002217545918676622, "ret_p1w": 0.06448683227857477, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06448683227857477, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.04853175890258976, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.05166630043219844, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012820531846376326, "ret_p1m": -0.15168029442116993, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.15168029442116993, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.16959676708552585, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1583330381784389, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.006652743757268986, "ret_p3m": -0.39691192293826616, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.39691192293826616, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3586483801399194, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3330016559550657, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.06391026698320046, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.15168029442116993, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.16959676708552585, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1583330381784389, "price_path": [0.9991, 0.891, 0.9364, 0.7271, 0.9491, 0.9782, 0.9282, 0.7021, 0.6649, 0.5695, 0.4532, 0.3506, 0.4478, 0.4105, 0.4278, 0.3542, 0.4096, 0.3597, 0.5177, 0.3969, 0.2452, 0.2888, 0.1944, 0.168, 0.1535, 0.0845, 0.0118, -0.089, -0.0372, 0.0445, 0.1208, 0.05, -0.0672, -0.0736, 0.0436, 0.0536, 0.0409, 0.0409, 0.0627, -0.0054, -0.0009, 0.0963, 0.2334, 0.1662, 0.1817, 0.1998, 0.1408, 0.1653, 0.0945, -0.0091, 0.0236, -0.0718, -0.0609, -0.0109, 0.1163, 0.0654, 0.0372, 0.0372, -0.0318, -0.04, -0.0554, -0.0681, -0.0681, 0.0, 0.0863, 0.1026, 0.0581, 0.0845, 0.0645, 0.0999, 0.0618, 0.1362, 0.1063, 0.1535, 0.1535, 0.0836, 0.0572, 0.0899, 0.0409, -0.0154, 0.0272, 0.0109, -0.0754, -0.158, -0.1517, -0.1235, -0.1708, -0.2906, -0.1435, -0.1426, -0.1862, -0.2243, -0.2561, -0.2307, -0.2307, -0.2688, -0.2543, -0.2534, -0.2825, -0.2843, -0.2634, -0.2116, -0.1789, -0.2361, -0.2198, -0.2979, -0.2598, -0.2988, -0.3097, -0.307, -0.3097, -0.3079, -0.3247, -0.337, -0.3306, -0.3152, -0.3415, -0.347, -0.3678, -0.3333, -0.3233, -0.3351, -0.3533, -0.3951, -0.4269, -0.3778, -0.3969, -0.376, -0.376, -0.3769, -0.3851, -0.3706, -0.3842, -0.3588, -0.3397, -0.2634, -0.1462, -0.1426, -0.1308, -0.1072, -0.1453, -0.1045, -0.178, -0.188, -0.1735, -0.2216, -0.248, -0.1807, -0.1635, -0.1371, -0.1317, -0.05, -0.1253, -0.1281, -0.0754, 0.0699, 0.0018, 0.0654, -0.0459, -0.1176, -0.1626, -0.1317, 0.0363, 0.1181, 0.1181, 0.0609, 0.0372, 0.1117, 0.0863, 0.1253, 0.1126, 0.0173, 0.0163, -0.0958, -0.0509, -0.1367, -0.1344, -0.0999, -0.0981, 0.0082, -0.0808, -0.1126, -0.0227, -0.0227, -0.0427, -0.0472, -0.119, -0.1744, -0.1662, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2026847935552532601", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-26T02:32:59+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$BTC - game over IMHO. Over the last year gold soared and risk assets performed well. Nevertheless, Bitcoin tanked. That is a \"tell.\"", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish BTC: institutionalization killed volatility/returns, performance lagged gold/risk assets over past year — author calls it game over.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "As I have been saying, the institutionalization of $BTC is a negative, not a positive as it results in lower volatility. \n\nAs a wholly  captured tradfi asset, the returns going forward will be much lower than in the past.\n\nThus my description of $BTC as the Facebook of speculative assets.\nLike Facebook, $BTC is for boomers.\n\nThis is a very fundamental change that $BTC acolytes refuse to address. \n\nInstead they respond with vulgarity and hostility.\n\nOver the last year gold soared and risk assets performed well. Nevertheless, Bitcoin tanked. \n\nThat is a “tell.”\n\n$BTC bro, denial  is not the name of a river in Egypt. \n\n$BTC - game over IMHO. \n\nI am interested to hear thoughtful rebuttals. However, replies with personal attacks, insults or profanity will earn an automatic block.\n\n@LawrenceLepard @MoneyPrinter @LukeGromen @Convertbond @biancoresearch", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.007506645465418904, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.007506645465418904, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.00192117569835637, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.00192117569835637, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023304501473983996, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023304501473983996, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0185025606153727, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0185025606153727, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "ret_p1w": 0.05021737687719696, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.05021737687719696, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.06180883340331533, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06180883340331533, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "ret_p1m": -0.016535745602630825, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.016535745602630825, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.06104768104292457, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.06104768104292457, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "ret_p3m": 0.12411404893837608, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.12411404893837608, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.03222378678199456, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03222378678199456, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.016535745602630825, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.06104768104292457, "alpha_c_stated": -0.06104768104292457, "price_path": [0.2797, 0.3543, 0.3865, 0.366, 0.3252, 0.3437, 0.3742, 0.3642, 0.3715, 0.3383, 0.2812, 0.3023, 0.2771, 0.267, 0.3061, 0.3119, 0.2959, 0.2988, 0.2933, 0.2942, 0.2918, 0.311, 0.2973, 0.3154, 0.3334, 0.3918, 0.3895, 0.3536, 0.3495, 0.3419, 0.3519, 0.4131, 0.437, 0.4165, 0.4162, 0.3721, 0.3092, 0.325, 0.3263, 0.3269, 0.3086, 0.3209, 0.3222, 0.2536, 0.2472, 0.1666, 0.1213, 0.0825, -0.0704, 0.046, 0.0395, 0.0199, -0.0068, -0.0183, 0.0208, 0.0206, 0.0006, -0.0152, -0.0074, 0.0082, -0.0421, -0.05, 0.0075, 0.0, -0.0233, 0.0196, 0.0125, 0.0779, 0.0502, 0.0101, 0.0141, 0.0367, 0.0408, 0.0451, 0.0521, 0.1098, 0.0959, 0.0562, 0.0365, 0.0455, 0.0513, 0.0454, 0.0572, 0.0198, -0.0165, -0.0113, 0.0116, 0.0093, -0.0084, -0.0077, 0.0208, 0.0665, 0.0544, 0.064, 0.0819, 0.1042, 0.0997, 0.109, 0.1141, 0.1434, 0.1248, 0.1319, 0.1594, 0.1603, 0.1483, 0.147, 0.1319, 0.1234, 0.1312, 0.159, 0.1834, 0.1997, 0.2072, 0.1861, 0.1888, 0.2116, 0.1931, 0.1753, 0.2016, 0.1721, 0.1408, 0.1378, 0.1483, 0.1495, 0.1191, 0.1457, 0.1241, 0.1022, 0.0902, 0.0877, 0.0573, -0.0111, -0.051, -0.0541, -0.0968, -0.0647, -0.0861, -0.089, -0.0577, -0.058, -0.0173, -0.0275, -0.045, -0.0676, -0.058, -0.0519, -0.0709, -0.0957, -0.1146, -0.1103, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2005822605731750250", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-30T02:05:50+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I expect $TSLA will meaningfully undershoot the lowered consensus number", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "weeks", "summary": "Expects TSLA to meaningfully miss Q4 delivery consensus, citing Troy Teslike's 406k forecast; bearish into the print.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Troy Teslike has consistently been the most accurate forecaster of $TSLA deliveries. His most recent prediction is for only 406k in 4q. I expect $TSLA will meaningfully undershoot the lowered consensus number. @SawyerMerritt @zerohedge @elonmusk @jasondebolt @DougKass", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "This is highly unusual for $TSLA to send out a press release with quarterly consensus delivery estimates. Interestingly, Bloomberg consensus, which tends to be stale since it is depends on analysts updating their estimates in a timely manner, shows a 4Q delivery consensus of", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.011464960624580467, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.011464960624580467, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010242253825026637, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.007393843971804648, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004071116652775819, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010364613980130777, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010364613980130777, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0029557610112932453, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0024716664837826086, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007892947496348168, "ret_p1w": -0.04724600393183376, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04724600393183376, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05423284889279023, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05314498316467742, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00589897923284366, "ret_p1m": -0.050546842397991454, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.050546842397991454, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06278828992564967, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06226168437993651, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011714841981945057, "ret_p3m": -0.20377177474195074, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20377177474195074, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12926302332297668, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08356815590370792, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.12020361883824282, "ret_p6m": -0.1736240898887511, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1736240898887511, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2465876221448997, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13350205757998646, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": -0.040122032308764655, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.050546842397991454, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06278828992564967, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06226168437993651, "price_path": [-0.0406, -0.0541, -0.0026, -0.047, -0.0346, -0.0416, -0.0901, -0.0408, -0.0554, -0.0424, -0.0565, -0.0333, -0.0154, -0.026, -0.034, -0.012, -0.0456, -0.0044, 0.0135, 0.0156, -0.0315, 0.0047, 0.0307, -0.0224, 0.0168, -0.0187, -0.0548, -0.0202, -0.0326, -0.0524, -0.1154, -0.1102, -0.1001, -0.117, -0.111, -0.1303, -0.1394, -0.0807, -0.0771, -0.0613, -0.0613, -0.0534, -0.0535, -0.0554, -0.0169, 0.0002, 0.0013, -0.0327, -0.0204, -0.0066, -0.0166, 0.01, 0.0459, 0.078, 0.0282, 0.0637, 0.0589, 0.0755, 0.0685, 0.0682, 0.0682, 0.0457, 0.0115, 0.0, -0.0104, -0.0104, -0.036, -0.0061, -0.0472, -0.0507, -0.041, -0.0207, -0.012, -0.0159, -0.0335, -0.0349, -0.0373, -0.0373, -0.0774, -0.0506, -0.0112, -0.0118, -0.0423, -0.0518, -0.0505, -0.0833, -0.0529, -0.0718, -0.0715, -0.1066, -0.1259, -0.0953, -0.0817, -0.0643, -0.0576, -0.0822, -0.0814, -0.0814, -0.0964, -0.0949, -0.094, -0.0938, -0.1202, -0.0991, -0.0815, -0.1009, -0.1143, -0.1125, -0.1364, -0.1067, -0.1076, -0.127, -0.1227, -0.1214, -0.1026, -0.1308, -0.1391, -0.1295, -0.1214, -0.1357, -0.1631, -0.1903, -0.1619, -0.1571, -0.1507, -0.1812, -0.2038, -0.2182, -0.1819, -0.161, -0.2065, -0.2065, -0.2236, -0.2372, -0.2447, -0.2394, -0.2321, -0.2245, -0.1986, -0.1375, -0.1442, -0.1184, -0.1363, -0.1497, -0.1473, -0.1776, -0.1719, -0.1667, -0.1725, -0.1796, -0.1602, -0.14, -0.1363, -0.1432, -0.1226, -0.0938, -0.0574, -0.0208, -0.0462, -0.0202, -0.0245, -0.0708, -0.0978, -0.1107, -0.0818, -0.0805, -0.0625, -0.0625, -0.0459, -0.031, -0.0271, -0.041, -0.0848, -0.0675, -0.0676, -0.0792, -0.1396, -0.1001, -0.1271, -0.1603, -0.1216, -0.1056, -0.0952, -0.1095, -0.1277, -0.1187, -0.1187, -0.1087, -0.1602, -0.1736]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2012520658039714100", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-17T13:41:30+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Revealing the truth behind Tesla - and why the fundamentals are IMPLODING", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA; fundamentals imploding per author's podcast thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "New podcast is out!\n\nRevealing the truth behind Tesla - and why the fundamentals are IMPLODING.\n\nI don’t see many people talking about this.\n\nCheck it out:\nhttps://t.co/AEabv65tqq", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.043530113297555184, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.043530113297555184, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.022750302840302883, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01683428581834434, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "bench_c_m1d": 0.026695827479210843, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02907573629435012, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.02907573629435012, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.01753462701268882, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.009935368085397522, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "bench_c_p1d": 0.019140368208952596, "ret_p1w": 0.027787701601632353, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.027787701601632353, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.001355422645941351, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0021820617712475787, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "bench_c_p1w": 0.029969763372879932, "ret_p1m": -0.018914711212358326, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.018914711212358326, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.031769257157557296, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0012853705529399795, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017629340659418347, "ret_p3m": -0.044436505385360814, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.044436505385360814, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09535218916298716, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05729650859930069, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "bench_c_p3m": 0.012860003213939875, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.018914711212358326, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.031769257157557296, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0012853705529399795, "price_path": [0.0709, 0.0345, 0.0791, 0.0985, 0.1008, 0.0497, 0.089, 0.1172, 0.0597, 0.1021, 0.0636, 0.0245, 0.062, 0.0486, 0.0271, -0.0412, -0.0355, -0.0246, -0.0429, -0.0364, -0.0573, -0.0672, -0.0035, 0.0004, 0.0175, 0.0175, 0.026, 0.026, 0.0238, 0.0656, 0.0842, 0.0853, 0.0485, 0.0618, 0.0768, 0.0659, 0.0947, 0.1337, 0.1685, 0.1145, 0.1529, 0.1478, 0.1657, 0.1582, 0.1578, 0.1578, 0.1334, 0.0963, 0.0839, 0.0727, 0.0727, 0.0449, 0.0773, 0.0327, 0.029, 0.0395, 0.0614, 0.0709, 0.0667, 0.0476, 0.0461, 0.0435, 0.0435, 0.0, 0.0291, 0.0718, 0.0711, 0.038, 0.0278, 0.0291, -0.0064, 0.0266, 0.0061, 0.0065, -0.0316, -0.0526, -0.0194, -0.0046, 0.0142, 0.0215, -0.0052, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0206, -0.0189, -0.018, -0.0177, -0.0463, -0.0235, -0.0044, -0.0255, -0.0399, -0.038, -0.064, -0.0317, -0.0327, -0.0537, -0.0491, -0.0477, -0.0273, -0.0578, -0.0669, -0.0565, -0.0477, -0.0631, -0.0929, -0.1223, -0.0916, -0.0864, -0.0794, -0.1124, -0.137, -0.1526, -0.1133, -0.0906, -0.1399, -0.1399, -0.1584, -0.1732, -0.1813, -0.1756, -0.1677, -0.1594, -0.1313, -0.0651, -0.0724, -0.0444, -0.0638, -0.0783, -0.0757, -0.1086, -0.1024, -0.0968, -0.1031, -0.1108, -0.0897, -0.0678, -0.0638, -0.0713, -0.0489, -0.0178, 0.0217, 0.0614, 0.0339, 0.0621, 0.0574, 0.0071, -0.0221, -0.0361, -0.0047, -0.0033, 0.0161, 0.0161, 0.0342, 0.0504, 0.0545, 0.0395, -0.008, 0.0107, 0.0106, -0.0019, -0.0674, -0.0246, -0.0538, -0.0898, -0.0479, -0.0306, -0.0193, -0.0348, -0.0545, -0.0447, -0.0447, -0.0339, -0.0898, -0.1043, -0.1053, -0.0943, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2047250934284095772", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-23T09:47:13+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$50 would be fair value for the stock", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author values TSLA at $50 fair value, implying significant downside from current levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@OldBull58322044 @thedave2006 You misunderstood.\nZero refers to robotaxis.\n$50 would be fair value for the stock.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @thedave2006 Have fun\n..you may get 200 points from 475\n..'great trade'...but hardly a short to zero...you are a complete idiot to think that. I today's markets \n..50% to 75% 'swings' happen in even very large cap stocks without the underlying equity being 'indefensible' or 'fake'\n..look at", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "OldBull58322044", "ret_m1d": 0.03689930562955901, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03689930562955901, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03300344593924298, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.026792256588431984, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003895859690316028, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010107049041127025, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0069035282132037246, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0069035282132037246, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0008457810240278807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0011651778525969547, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007749309237231605, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00806870606580068, "ret_p1w": 0.021165588237912036, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.021165588237912036, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0067539132350464826, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.015984675397364256, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014411675002865554, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00518091284054778, "ret_p1m": 0.13991760776550355, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1276872252746062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.052494860901207696, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012230382490897362, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1276872252746062, "price_path": [0.1645, 0.153, 0.1545, 0.1146, 0.1517, 0.1287, 0.1291, 0.0864, 0.0629, 0.1, 0.1167, 0.1378, 0.146, 0.116, 0.117, 0.117, 0.0988, 0.1006, 0.1017, 0.1019, 0.0699, 0.0954, 0.1169, 0.0933, 0.077, 0.0792, 0.0501, 0.0862, 0.0852, 0.0616, 0.0668, 0.0683, 0.0912, 0.057, 0.0468, 0.0584, 0.0684, 0.051, 0.0176, -0.0154, 0.0191, 0.0249, 0.0327, -0.0043, -0.0318, -0.0493, -0.0053, 0.0202, -0.0351, -0.0351, -0.0559, -0.0724, -0.0815, -0.0752, -0.0663, -0.057, -0.0255, 0.0488, 0.0406, 0.072, 0.0503, 0.034, 0.0369, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0132, 0.0062, -0.0025, 0.0212, 0.0458, 0.0503, 0.0419, 0.0669, 0.1019, 0.1462, 0.1907, 0.1598, 0.1915, 0.1862, 0.1298, 0.0971, 0.0813, 0.1165, 0.1181, 0.1399, 0.1399, 0.1602, 0.1783, 0.183, 0.1661, 0.1128, 0.1338, 0.1337, 0.1197, 0.0462, 0.0943, 0.0614, 0.0211, 0.068, 0.0875, 0.1002, 0.0828, 0.0606, 0.0716, 0.0716, 0.0838, 0.0211, 0.0048, 0.0037, 0.016, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2035002722919887090", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-20T14:37:12+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA remains a core short for me. PRESS IT!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "TSLA is a core short; author urges pressing the short position, endorsing the ~$52/share intrinsic value thesis.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER IS GREATLY APPRECIATED.\n\n$TSLA remains a core short for me.\nPRESS IT!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Why are $TSLA bears celebrating this? Assuming ALL OF $TSLA's biz segs are the best in the world (WHICH IS NOT TRUE) currently, the stock is worth ~$52.34/shr, meaning the market is still giving $TSLA an additional ~$1.197T in value for a robotaxi biz that doesn't exist! https://t.co/DquHtXcsIX", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03353624476697248, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03353624476697248, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.018992047302828663, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.015344315347188164, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.014544197464143815, "bench_c_m1d": 0.018191929419784314, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.035031022251806876, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.035031022251806876, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.024531031026330474, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.010887520180974386, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.010499991225476402, "bench_c_p1d": 0.02414350207083249, "ret_p1w": -0.0166594331589468, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0166594331589468, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.005666634554335026, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0004902191997062655, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.022326067713281827, "bench_c_p1w": -0.017149652358653067, "ret_p1m": 0.06669205651375232, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.06669205651375232, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.026050318000653272, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04812883890888808, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09274237451440559, "bench_c_p1m": 0.1148208954226404, "ret_p3m": 0.07723669444427617, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07723669444427617, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.06521514898878555, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0031509157531117715, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.14245184343306172, "bench_c_p3m": 0.0740857786911644, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.06669205651375232, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.026050318000653272, "alpha_c_stated": 0.04812883890888808, "price_path": [0.3196, 0.3192, 0.3192, 0.2914, 0.2492, 0.235, 0.2222, 0.2222, 0.1905, 0.2275, 0.1766, 0.1724, 0.1844, 0.2094, 0.2201, 0.2153, 0.1936, 0.1919, 0.189, 0.189, 0.1394, 0.1725, 0.2212, 0.2204, 0.1827, 0.1711, 0.1726, 0.1321, 0.1697, 0.1463, 0.1468, 0.1034, 0.0795, 0.1173, 0.1341, 0.1556, 0.1639, 0.1335, 0.1345, 0.1345, 0.116, 0.1178, 0.1189, 0.1192, 0.0866, 0.1126, 0.1344, 0.1104, 0.0939, 0.0961, 0.0665, 0.1032, 0.1022, 0.0782, 0.0835, 0.085, 0.1083, 0.0735, 0.0632, 0.075, 0.0851, 0.0675, 0.0335, 0.0, 0.035, 0.041, 0.0489, 0.0113, -0.0167, -0.0345, 0.0103, 0.0361, -0.02, -0.02, -0.0411, -0.0579, -0.0672, -0.0607, -0.0517, -0.0422, -0.0102, 0.0652, 0.0569, 0.0888, 0.0667, 0.0502, 0.0531, 0.0157, 0.0227, 0.0291, 0.0219, 0.0132, 0.0372, 0.0621, 0.0667, 0.0582, 0.0836, 0.1191, 0.1641, 0.2094, 0.178, 0.2101, 0.2048, 0.1475, 0.1142, 0.0982, 0.134, 0.1356, 0.1578, 0.1578, 0.1784, 0.1968, 0.2015, 0.1843, 0.1302, 0.1516, 0.1515, 0.1372, 0.0626, 0.1114, 0.0781, 0.037, 0.0848, 0.1045, 0.1174, 0.0997, 0.0772, 0.0884, 0.0884, 0.1008, 0.0371, 0.0206, 0.0195, 0.0319, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2020249634279461175", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-07T21:33:41+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I'm here to tell you the thesis hasn't changed. Not one bit. If you look at gold relative to inflation, money supply, or GDP, numbers like $6,000, $8,000, even $10,000 aren't fantasy.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Still bullish gold to $6K-$10K on fiscal deterioration; gold miners compelling at 10x earnings with $3K+/oz margins and retail not yet arrived.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "In May 2025 I went on a show and said \"you cannot be bullish enough on gold.\"\n\nGold was $3,300.\n\nToday it's knocking on $5,000.\n\nThat's 50% in nine months.\n\nThe gold miners ETF finished 2025 up 155%. Junior miners up 178%.\n\nBut I'm not here to gloat.\n\nI'm here to tell you the thesis hasn't changed. Not one bit.\n\nPeople keep asking me: \"George, when are you turning bearish on gold?\"\n\nI'll turn bearish on gold when I can turn bullish on the value of money.\n\nI'll turn bearish on gold when governments start running sensible monetary policy.\n\nI'll turn bearish on gold when the US budget deficit isn't running at nearly 7% of GDP.\n\nShow me any of those things happening right now.\n\nYOU CAN'T\n\nThe price of gold isn't going up. The value of money is going down. Gold is just the mirror.\n\nAnd here's what still gets me excited:\n\nGold miners are realizing prices near $5,000 an ounce with all-in sustaining costs around $1,600.\n\nThat's $3,000+ per ounce in margin.\n\nThe earnings surprises coming out of the next few quarters are going to be massive. Major gold stocks are trading at 10x earnings.\n\nMeanwhile, American retail investors still haven't shown up. \n\nETF holdings are lower than they were years ago. \n\nThis entire rally has been driven by central banks and institutions.\n\nWhen US retail finally arrives, that's when it gets really interesting.\n\nIf you look at gold relative to inflation, money supply, or GDP, numbers like $6,000, $8,000, even $10,000 aren't fantasy.\n\nYou don't need to believe in a Banana Republic scenario to own gold miners.\n\nYou just need to believe the fiscal trajectory of every major government is unsustainable.\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/BbM6Eki4Tr", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.024773584897030076, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.024773584897030076, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.019974995666348194, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.019974995666348194, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.009913720520981939, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.009913720520981939, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.007276662750282492, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007276662750282492, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "ret_p1w": -0.009442656089835855, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.009442656089835855, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.00813784694237385, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.00813784694237385, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "bench_c_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "ret_p1m": 0.02318905980466468, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02318905980466468, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.04735504519014433, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04735504519014433, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "ret_p3m": -0.07569108236282884, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07569108236282884, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.13279606262114807, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.13279606262114807, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02318905980466468, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.04735504519014433, "alpha_c_stated": 0.04735504519014433, "price_path": [-0.1735, -0.1802, -0.195, -0.2042, -0.1984, -0.1971, -0.1974, -0.1986, -0.1859, -0.1862, -0.1797, -0.1797, -0.1695, -0.1655, -0.1708, -0.1716, -0.1711, -0.1726, -0.1747, -0.1705, -0.167, -0.158, -0.1533, -0.1525, -0.1523, -0.145, -0.1466, -0.1456, -0.1259, -0.1143, -0.118, -0.118, -0.1077, -0.1465, -0.1459, -0.1514, -0.1514, -0.1472, -0.1248, -0.1153, -0.1238, -0.1189, -0.1125, -0.0959, -0.0972, -0.088, -0.0936, -0.0979, -0.0979, -0.0638, -0.0502, -0.0326, -0.0193, -0.005, 0.0194, 0.0589, 0.0618, -0.0473, -0.0854, -0.0273, -0.028, -0.0539, -0.0248, 0.0, -0.0099, 0.0013, -0.0335, -0.0094, -0.0094, -0.0403, -0.0187, -0.016, 0.0034, 0.0305, 0.0162, 0.0137, 0.0224, 0.0358, 0.0492, 0.0024, 0.0102, -0.0019, 0.0139, 0.0118, 0.0232, 0.0197, -0.0003, -0.0133, -0.0141, -0.0166, -0.0477, -0.087, -0.1149, -0.1349, -0.1347, -0.1086, -0.1422, -0.112, -0.1123, -0.0787, -0.0625, -0.0806, -0.0806, -0.0843, -0.0754, -0.0696, -0.0624, -0.064, -0.0678, -0.047, -0.0569, -0.0577, -0.0452, -0.0534, -0.0802, -0.068, -0.0771, -0.0723, -0.0795, -0.0966, -0.1062, -0.0929, -0.0939, -0.112, -0.1044, -0.0772, -0.0757, -0.0712, -0.0693, -0.073, -0.0782, -0.0853, -0.1065, -0.1041, -0.1189, -0.1063, -0.1071, -0.1139, -0.1139, -0.1135, -0.1253, -0.1162, -0.1069, -0.1194, -0.1179, -0.1267, -0.1194, -0.1516, -0.1494, -0.1633, -0.198, -0.1728, -0.1723, -0.1509, -0.1486, -0.1679, -0.1711, -0.1711, -0.1765, -0.1921, -0.2165, -0.2089, -0.2, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2020249634279461175", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-07T21:33:41+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold miners are realizing prices near $5,000 an ounce with all-in sustaining costs around $1,600. That's $3,000+ per ounce in margin. The earnings surprises coming out of the next few quarters are going to be massive. Major gold stocks are trading at 10x earnings.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Still bullish gold to $6K-$10K on fiscal deterioration; gold miners compelling at 10x earnings with $3K+/oz margins and retail not yet arrived.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "In May 2025 I went on a show and said \"you cannot be bullish enough on gold.\"\n\nGold was $3,300.\n\nToday it's knocking on $5,000.\n\nThat's 50% in nine months.\n\nThe gold miners ETF finished 2025 up 155%. Junior miners up 178%.\n\nBut I'm not here to gloat.\n\nI'm here to tell you the thesis hasn't changed. Not one bit.\n\nPeople keep asking me: \"George, when are you turning bearish on gold?\"\n\nI'll turn bearish on gold when I can turn bullish on the value of money.\n\nI'll turn bearish on gold when governments start running sensible monetary policy.\n\nI'll turn bearish on gold when the US budget deficit isn't running at nearly 7% of GDP.\n\nShow me any of those things happening right now.\n\nYOU CAN'T\n\nThe price of gold isn't going up. The value of money is going down. Gold is just the mirror.\n\nAnd here's what still gets me excited:\n\nGold miners are realizing prices near $5,000 an ounce with all-in sustaining costs around $1,600.\n\nThat's $3,000+ per ounce in margin.\n\nThe earnings surprises coming out of the next few quarters are going to be massive. Major gold stocks are trading at 10x earnings.\n\nMeanwhile, American retail investors still haven't shown up. \n\nETF holdings are lower than they were years ago. \n\nThis entire rally has been driven by central banks and institutions.\n\nWhen US retail finally arrives, that's when it gets really interesting.\n\nIf you look at gold relative to inflation, money supply, or GDP, numbers like $6,000, $8,000, even $10,000 aren't fantasy.\n\nYou don't need to believe in a Banana Republic scenario to own gold miners.\n\nYou just need to believe the fiscal trajectory of every major government is unsustainable.\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/BbM6Eki4Tr", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.053455146589818536, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.053455146589818536, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.048656557359136654, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.048656557359136654, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004798589230681882, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0011663208017678173, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0011663208017678173, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.003803378572467264, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.003803378572467264, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002637057770699447, "ret_p1w": 0.010205103100267454, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.010205103100267454, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.02778560613247716, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.02778560613247716, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "bench_c_p1w": -0.017580503032209704, "ret_p1m": 0.004665209056089248, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.004665209056089248, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.028831194441568897, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.028831194441568897, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "bench_c_p1m": -0.02416598538547965, "ret_p3m": -0.10856252536890487, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.10856252536890487, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.1656675056272241, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.1656675056272241, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05710498025831923, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.004665209056089248, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.028831194441568897, "alpha_c_stated": 0.028831194441568897, "price_path": [-0.2353, -0.2565, -0.2651, -0.2768, -0.2702, -0.2629, -0.2959, -0.2893, -0.2478, -0.2493, -0.2131, -0.2131, -0.1969, -0.2009, -0.2125, -0.2178, -0.2147, -0.2181, -0.2362, -0.2094, -0.196, -0.1677, -0.1735, -0.1813, -0.1815, -0.1718, -0.1734, -0.1529, -0.1235, -0.1227, -0.1282, -0.1282, -0.1127, -0.1656, -0.156, -0.1664, -0.1664, -0.1668, -0.1403, -0.1045, -0.115, -0.1103, -0.1004, -0.0697, -0.0624, -0.0586, -0.0562, -0.0549, -0.0549, -0.0011, -0.0156, 0.0222, 0.0401, 0.0446, 0.0622, 0.0901, 0.0495, -0.0845, -0.0846, -0.0454, -0.0407, -0.1016, -0.0535, 0.0, 0.0012, 0.0299, -0.0448, 0.0102, 0.0102, -0.0257, -0.0032, 0.0131, 0.0328, 0.0719, 0.0759, 0.0804, 0.1069, 0.1259, 0.121, 0.0228, 0.0291, -0.0104, -0.0147, -0.0044, 0.0047, -0.0149, -0.0349, -0.0936, -0.0827, -0.0868, -0.1436, -0.1943, -0.2213, -0.1896, -0.1885, -0.161, -0.1992, -0.1662, -0.1662, -0.1081, -0.0669, -0.0807, -0.0807, -0.0882, -0.077, -0.0458, -0.0441, -0.034, -0.0399, -0.0208, -0.0498, -0.0508, -0.0248, -0.0365, -0.0962, -0.0817, -0.104, -0.0831, -0.1001, -0.1395, -0.162, -0.1419, -0.1534, -0.1676, -0.166, -0.1016, -0.1086, -0.0807, -0.0514, -0.0559, -0.0647, -0.0869, -0.151, -0.1531, -0.1857, -0.1607, -0.1643, -0.1737, -0.1737, -0.1399, -0.1696, -0.1527, -0.1302, -0.1575, -0.1442, -0.1739, -0.1603, -0.2337, -0.2354, -0.2459, -0.2826, -0.2446, -0.2222, -0.1713, -0.1521, -0.1801, -0.1981, -0.1981, -0.2085, -0.2452, -0.2751, -0.2646, -0.2516, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2022615476807831625", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-14T10:14:42+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "flipped_to_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$BTC is in a bear market until proven otherwise. SELL is not a four letter word.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "BTC in a bear market until proven otherwise; explicit sell call.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Total nonsense. Andy’s post. $BTC  is in a bear market until proven otherwise. SELL is not a four letter word.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.00021334727807453824, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.00021334727807453824, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0018242311633319686, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0018242311633319686, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.019594358734823403, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.019594358734823403, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.024632066285400156, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.024632066285400156, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "ret_p1w": -0.06139198431579751, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06139198431579751, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06798198835311631, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06798198835311631, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "ret_p1m": 0.07378104940532859, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07378104940532859, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10514956926389574, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10514956926389574, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "ret_p3m": 0.1773319878836903, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.1773319878836903, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.09189781257815288, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.09189781257815288, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07378104940532859, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.10514956926389574, "alpha_c_stated": -0.10514956926389574, "price_path": [0.3286, 0.2584, 0.236, 0.2822, 0.2687, 0.3148, 0.326, 0.3207, 0.2539, 0.3269, 0.3586, 0.3384, 0.2984, 0.3166, 0.3464, 0.3367, 0.3438, 0.3112, 0.2553, 0.276, 0.2513, 0.2414, 0.2798, 0.2854, 0.2698, 0.2726, 0.2672, 0.2681, 0.2657, 0.2845, 0.2711, 0.2889, 0.3065, 0.3637, 0.3615, 0.3263, 0.3222, 0.3148, 0.3246, 0.3846, 0.408, 0.388, 0.3876, 0.3444, 0.2828, 0.2983, 0.2995, 0.3001, 0.2821, 0.2943, 0.2955, 0.2283, 0.222, 0.143, 0.0986, 0.0607, -0.0892, 0.0249, 0.0186, -0.0007, -0.0269, -0.0381, 0.0002, 0.0, -0.0196, -0.0351, -0.0274, -0.0122, -0.0614, -0.0692, -0.0128, -0.0202, -0.043, -0.001, -0.008, 0.0562, 0.029, -0.0103, -0.0064, 0.0157, 0.0198, 0.024, 0.0309, 0.0874, 0.0738, 0.0349, 0.0155, 0.0244, 0.0301, 0.0243, 0.0358, -0.0007, -0.0364, -0.0313, -0.0089, -0.0111, -0.0284, -0.0278, 0.0002, 0.045, 0.0331, 0.0425, 0.0601, 0.0819, 0.0775, 0.0866, 0.0916, 0.1203, 0.1021, 0.1091, 0.136, 0.1369, 0.1251, 0.1238, 0.1091, 0.1007, 0.1084, 0.1356, 0.1596, 0.1755, 0.1828, 0.1622, 0.1648, 0.1872, 0.169, 0.1516, 0.1773, 0.1485, 0.1178, 0.1149, 0.1251, 0.1263, 0.0965, 0.1226, 0.1014, 0.0799, 0.0682, 0.0658, 0.036, -0.0311, -0.0701, -0.0732, -0.1151, -0.0836, -0.1046, -0.1074, -0.0767, -0.077, -0.0371, -0.0471, -0.0643, -0.0864, -0.077, -0.071, -0.0897, -0.114, -0.1325, -0.1282, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2011216584795144500", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-13T23:19:35+00:00", "symbol": "precious metals", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I believe precious metals are going MUCH higher", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish precious metals from here; forward-looking conviction despite past gains.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLTR"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLTR tracks broad precious metals basket", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Neither your view nor mine is new or unique. I do not like taking victory laps. As my former mentor Peter Lynch would always say, “Mr. Market does not know know or care about your cost basis.”  The more important issue is where do we go from here? I believe precious metals are going MUCH higher.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Ah George, it’s been in play for awhile. Remember my whole “dollar debasement, devaluation, devaluation” thesis when you interviewed me last year?\n\nAnd that METALS ARE THE NEW OIL™️\n\nAnd that labor market was way weak under surface setting up for RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS™️", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "SamanthaLaDuc", "ret_m1d": -0.032263432721279184, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.032263432721279184, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.037202964673184846, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.037202964673184846, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004939531951905662, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004939531951905662, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0100588659749824, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0100588659749824, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.012782163482969566, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012782163482969566, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0027232975079871657, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0027232975079871657, "ret_p1w": 0.0201177319499648, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0201177319499648, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.027302295617087524, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.027302295617087524, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007184563667122723, "bench_c_p1w": -0.007184563667122723, "ret_p1m": -0.05851658762037659, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.05851658762037659, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04534965748237896, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04534965748237896, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.013166930137997634, "bench_c_p1m": -0.013166930137997634, "ret_p3m": -0.07625522472944135, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07625522472944135, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.07279875224941146, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.07279875224941146, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.003456472480029893, "bench_c_p3m": -0.003456472480029893, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.05851658762037659, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04534965748237896, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04534965748237896, "price_path": [-0.2409, -0.2184, -0.2713, -0.2684, -0.266, -0.2695, -0.291, -0.2933, -0.2918, -0.2763, -0.2817, -0.2819, -0.2962, -0.2857, -0.2892, -0.2837, -0.2602, -0.2553, -0.2375, -0.2479, -0.2635, -0.2721, -0.2657, -0.2635, -0.2672, -0.2698, -0.2566, -0.2554, -0.2425, -0.2425, -0.2216, -0.215, -0.2141, -0.2136, -0.221, -0.2155, -0.2176, -0.2029, -0.1985, -0.1844, -0.188, -0.1754, -0.176, -0.1578, -0.1625, -0.1527, -0.1313, -0.1086, -0.1118, -0.1118, -0.072, -0.1278, -0.1141, -0.1419, -0.1419, -0.1321, -0.0992, -0.067, -0.0874, -0.0908, -0.0741, -0.0397, -0.0323, 0.0, -0.0101, -0.0257, -0.0257, 0.0189, 0.0201, 0.0491, 0.0874, 0.12, 0.1451, 0.1905, 0.1905, -0.024, -0.0615, -0.006, 0.0046, -0.0789, -0.0392, 0.0041, -0.0151, 0.0062, -0.0585, -0.0323, -0.0323, -0.0674, -0.0365, -0.0301, 0.0086, 0.0435, 0.0287, 0.0334, 0.0403, 0.0707, 0.062, -0.003, 0.005, -0.0075, 0.0088, 0.0207, 0.0346, 0.0221, 0.0031, -0.0255, -0.0205, -0.0289, -0.0652, -0.1041, -0.1408, -0.1482, -0.1456, -0.12, -0.1631, -0.1319, -0.1304, -0.0871, -0.078, -0.098, -0.098, -0.0994, -0.0953, -0.0818, -0.072, -0.0713, -0.0763, -0.0461, -0.0525, -0.0563, -0.0375, -0.0498, -0.0846, -0.0668, -0.0849, -0.0798, -0.0866, -0.1073, -0.1199, -0.1003, -0.0941, -0.1164, -0.112, -0.0743, -0.068, -0.0577, -0.0333, -0.0329, -0.0314, -0.0559, -0.1001, -0.0943, -0.1198, -0.1028, -0.1, -0.1114, -0.1114, -0.1028, -0.1193, -0.111, -0.106, -0.1158, -0.1132, -0.1293, -0.1212, -0.1678, -0.1677, -0.1881, -0.2153, -0.1843, -0.1819, -0.1569, -0.1544, -0.1811, -0.1898, -0.1898, -0.1962, -0.2209, -0.2562, -0.2479, -0.2377, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2006464577874309178", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-31T20:36:48+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is a high conviction short for me", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "High-conviction short on TSLA, disagreeing with Burry's non-short stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA is a high conviction short for me. I may be wrong (wouldn��t be the first time) DYOR.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Michael Burry says he’s not shorting Tesla.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01047316428509637, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01047316428509637, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0030090104983158117, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0025174225368345127, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0074641537867805585, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007955741748261858, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.040714216643453205, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.040714216643453205, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05194720436462197, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05319222418563052, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011232987721168763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012478007542177316, "ret_p1m": -0.07373477624322045, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07373477624322045, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09150808778807173, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08864131178554058, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01777331154485129, "bench_c_p1m": 0.014906535542320132, "ret_p3m": -0.20999733653175723, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20999733653175723, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13927921912571917, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09662533842567289, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07071811740603806, "bench_c_p3m": -0.11337199810608434, "ret_p6m": -0.1658810057391803, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1658810057391803, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24841599443807738, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11893365542821799, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08253498869889708, "bench_c_p6m": -0.04694735031096231, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07373477624322045, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09150808778807173, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08864131178554058, "price_path": [-0.0442, 0.0078, -0.037, -0.0245, -0.0315, -0.0806, -0.0307, -0.0455, -0.0324, -0.0466, -0.0231, -0.0051, -0.0158, -0.0239, -0.0016, -0.0356, 0.006, 0.0241, 0.0262, -0.0214, 0.0152, 0.0415, -0.0121, 0.0275, -0.0085, -0.0449, -0.01, -0.0225, -0.0425, -0.1061, -0.1009, -0.0907, -0.1078, -0.1017, -0.1212, -0.1304, -0.071, -0.0674, -0.0515, -0.0515, -0.0435, -0.0435, -0.0455, -0.0066, 0.0107, 0.0117, -0.0225, -0.0101, 0.0038, -0.0063, 0.0205, 0.0569, 0.0893, 0.039, 0.0748, 0.07, 0.0867, 0.0797, 0.0793, 0.0793, 0.0566, 0.0221, 0.0105, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0259, 0.0043, -0.0373, -0.0407, -0.031, -0.0105, -0.0017, -0.0056, -0.0234, -0.0248, -0.0272, -0.0272, -0.0678, -0.0406, -0.0008, -0.0015, -0.0323, -0.0418, -0.0406, -0.0737, -0.0429, -0.0621, -0.0617, -0.0972, -0.1168, -0.0859, -0.072, -0.0545, -0.0477, -0.0726, -0.0718, -0.0718, -0.0869, -0.0854, -0.0845, -0.0843, -0.1109, -0.0897, -0.0719, -0.0915, -0.105, -0.1032, -0.1274, -0.0973, -0.0982, -0.1178, -0.1135, -0.1122, -0.0932, -0.1217, -0.1301, -0.1204, -0.1122, -0.1266, -0.1544, -0.1818, -0.1531, -0.1483, -0.1418, -0.1726, -0.1954, -0.21, -0.1734, -0.1522, -0.1982, -0.1982, -0.2155, -0.2292, -0.2367, -0.2315, -0.2241, -0.2164, -0.1902, -0.1285, -0.1352, -0.1092, -0.1272, -0.1408, -0.1383, -0.169, -0.1633, -0.158, -0.1639, -0.171, -0.1514, -0.131, -0.1272, -0.1342, -0.1134, -0.0843, -0.0475, -0.0105, -0.0362, -0.0099, -0.0143, -0.0611, -0.0883, -0.1014, -0.0722, -0.0709, -0.0527, -0.0527, -0.0359, -0.0208, -0.0169, -0.031, -0.0752, -0.0578, -0.0579, -0.0695, -0.1306, -0.0907, -0.1179, -0.1515, -0.1124, -0.0963, -0.0858, -0.1002, -0.1186, -0.1095, -0.1095, -0.0993, -0.1514, -0.165, -0.1659]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007166938791723098", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-02T19:07:44+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "STAY SHORT $TSLA ... I am short at an average price of $473. 2026 may well be the year that $TSLA collapses as sales and earnings plummet", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Short TSLA at avg $473; expects 2026 collapse on declining unit sales, loss of EV credits, robotaxi delays, and earnings implosion.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "STAY SHORT $TSLA\n\nThe $TSLA chart is now rolling over, last sale $436. $TSLA acolytes that worship at the alter of momentum may now be inclined to head for the exits. The 200 day moving average is 360. Will fundamentals and valuation finally prevail over narrative?\n\nI believe that unit sales will decline in 2026 for a third consecutive year. \nEV credits will also go away - $TSLA earned an estimated $1.9b from this source in 2025.\nThe company may well lose money this year. \nI expect Musk to continue to move the goal posts on robotaxis as he has done for the last 10 years. Most all experts agree that it ain’t happening without LIDAR. \n\nAs disclosed previously, I am short at an average price of $473.\n2026 may way well be the year that $TSLA collapses as sales and earnings plummet and the market tires of the lies of @elonmusk \n\nPS - Just to be clear, these are my own thoughts and not the result of a confidential conversation!\n\n@DougKass @TommyThornton @BradMunchen @GordonJohnson19 @zerohedge", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Do not be surprised if $TSLA announces the launching of paid (driverless) robotaxis in Texas in the company days. However, I anticipate this will be a completely staged event should it occur. I will short more on any pop in the stock price.\n\nI would expect the number of rides", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.026593908968212343, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.026593908968212343, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.028423548353842976, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.017637361069777535, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008956547898434808, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.031045280151877908, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.031045280151877908, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.024385073043633243, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.014568708932490848, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01647657121938706, "ret_p1w": 0.015842222305509024, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.015842222305509024, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0001128510704759833, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03536186942391506, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.051204091729424084, "ret_p1m": -0.03711737734555942, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06770470393027994, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03058732658472052, "ret_p3m": -0.12968246309669917, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.12968246309669917, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09141892029835241, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05930285557113557, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0703796075255636, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.0114, 0.0014, -0.0058, -0.0561, -0.005, -0.0202, -0.0067, -0.0213, 0.0028, 0.0214, 0.0103, 0.0021, 0.0249, -0.0099, 0.0328, 0.0513, 0.0535, 0.0046, 0.0422, 0.0692, 0.0141, 0.0548, 0.0179, -0.0195, 0.0163, 0.0035, -0.0171, -0.0824, -0.077, -0.0665, -0.0841, -0.0778, -0.0978, -0.1072, -0.0463, -0.0426, -0.0262, -0.0262, -0.018, -0.0181, -0.0202, 0.0198, 0.0376, 0.0386, 0.0034, 0.0162, 0.0305, 0.0201, 0.0477, 0.085, 0.1183, 0.0666, 0.1034, 0.0985, 0.1156, 0.1084, 0.108, 0.108, 0.0847, 0.0492, 0.0373, 0.0266, 0.0266, 0.0, 0.031, -0.0117, -0.0152, -0.0052, 0.0158, 0.0249, 0.0208, 0.0026, 0.0011, -0.0013, -0.0013, -0.043, -0.0151, 0.0258, 0.0251, -0.0066, -0.0164, -0.0151, -0.0491, -0.0175, -0.0371, -0.0368, -0.0732, -0.0933, -0.0615, -0.0474, -0.0294, -0.0224, -0.0479, -0.0471, -0.0471, -0.0626, -0.0611, -0.0602, -0.0599, -0.0873, -0.0655, -0.0472, -0.0673, -0.0812, -0.0793, -0.1042, -0.0733, -0.0742, -0.0944, -0.0899, -0.0886, -0.0691, -0.0983, -0.107, -0.097, -0.0886, -0.1034, -0.1319, -0.16, -0.1306, -0.1256, -0.119, -0.1506, -0.174, -0.189, -0.1514, -0.1297, -0.1769, -0.1769, -0.1946, -0.2087, -0.2164, -0.211, -0.2034, -0.1955, -0.1686, -0.1053, -0.1122, -0.0855, -0.104, -0.1179, -0.1154, -0.1469, -0.141, -0.1356, -0.1416, -0.149, -0.1288, -0.1079, -0.104, -0.1112, -0.0898, -0.06, -0.0222, 0.0158, -0.0105, 0.0164, 0.0119, -0.0361, -0.0641, -0.0775, -0.0475, -0.0462, -0.0275, -0.0275, -0.0102, 0.0052, 0.0092, -0.0052, -0.0507, -0.0327, -0.0328, -0.0448, -0.1074, -0.0665, -0.0945, -0.1289, -0.0888, -0.0722, -0.0615, -0.0763, -0.0952, -0.0858, -0.0858, -0.0754, -0.1289, -0.1428, -0.1437, -0.1332, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2013639091636633705", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-20T15:45:45+00:00", "symbol": "small and mid-caps", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Small and mid-caps are trading near decade lows relative to Big Tech while earnings growth is only marginally lower. The smart money is rotating into sectors where valuations actually reflect fundamentals.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Trim Magnificent 7 AI-infrastructure exposure; rotate into small/mid-caps trading near decade lows vs Big Tech.", "resolved_tickers": ["IWM", "IJH"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "IWM small-cap, IJH mid-cap US equity ETFs", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "OPENAI IS FALLING APART IN REAL TIME\n\nI've watched companies implode for decades.\n\nThis one has all the warning signs.\n\nOpenAI declared \"Code Red\" in December.\n\nAltman sent an internal memo telling employees to drop everything because Google's Gemini 3 is eating their lunch. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff publicly ditched ChatGPT for Gemini after using it for two hours.\n\nChatGPT traffic fell in November. Second month-over-month decline of 2025. Meanwhile Gemini jumped to 650 million monthly active users.\n\nThe company that was supposed to build AGI can't keep its chatbot competitive.\n\nBut the real story is the money...\n\nOpenAI lost $12 BILLION in a single quarter according to Microsoft's own fiscal disclosures.\n\nDeutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative cash flow before the company turns profitable. \n\nTheir analysts put it bluntly: \"No startup in history has operated with losses on anything approaching this scale.\"\n\nThey're burning $15 million per day on Sora alone. \n\n$5 billion annually to generate copyright-infringing memes. \n\nEven Sora's lead engineer admitted the \"economics are currently completely unsustainable.\"\n\nHere's the big math problem nobody wants to discuss:\n\nIt's going to cost 5x the energy and money to make these models 2x better.\n\nThe low-hanging fruit is gone.\n\nEvery incremental improvement now requires exponentially more compute, more data centers, more power. \n\nReports suggest OpenAI's large training runs in 2025 failed to produce models better than prior versions.\n\nGPT-5 launched to widespread disappointment. Users called it \"underwhelming\" and \"horrible.\" OpenAI had to restore GPT-4o within 24 hours because users preferred the old model.\n\nAltman had promised GPT-5 would make GPT-4 feel \"mildly embarrassing.\" Instead, users complained it was worse at basic math and geography.\n\nThey've released GPT-5.1, GPT-5.2 since. \n\nSame complaints each time: too corporate, too safe, robotic, boring.\n\nThe talent exodus makes this even worse:\n\nCTO Mira Murati. Gone.\nChief Research Officer Bob McGrew. Gone.\nChief Scientist Ilya Sutskever. Gone.\nPresident Greg Brockman. Gone.\n\nHalf the AI safety team departed. Multiple executives reportedly cited \"psychological abuse\" under Altman's leadership.\n\nAnd now Elon Musk is suing for up to $134 billion.\n\nA federal judge just ruled the case goes to jury trial in April. There's \"plenty of evidence\" that OpenAI's leaders promised to maintain the nonprofit structure that Musk funded.\n\nMusk provided $38 million in early funding based on those assurances. Now he wants his share of the $500 billion valuation.\n\nOpenAI called it \"harassment.\" But the judge disagreed.\n\nHere's what I think happens next:\n\nThe AI hype cycle is peaking.\n\nThe diminishing returns are becoming impossible to hide.\n\nCompetitors are catching up. \n\nThe lawsuits are piling up.\n\nOpenAI needs to generate $200 billion in annual revenue by 2030 to justify their projections. \n\nThat's 15x growth in five years while costs keep exploding.\n\nEven Sam Altman admitted investors are \"overexcited\" about AI. \n\nHis exact words: \"Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money.\"\n\nIf I were running an AI startup with good traction right now, I'd be looking for an exit. Sell into the hype before the music stops.\n\nMy positioning:\n\nI'm not touching OpenAI-adjacent plays at these valuations. The risk profile is astronomical.\n\nIf you're exposed to the Magnificent 7 through AI infrastructure bets, consider trimming. The gap between promised revolution and delivered reality has never been wider.\n\nThe smart money is rotating into sectors where valuations actually reflect fundamentals.\n\nSmall and mid-caps are trading near decade lows relative to Big Tech while earnings growth is only marginally lower.\n\nMarkets can price risk. But they can't price chaos.\n\nAnd OpenAI is chaos dressed up in a $500 billion valuation.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.013075200557156497, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.013075200557156497, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.007704609900095805, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.007704609900095805, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.018966974375998036, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.018966974375998036, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.007425865094336737, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.007425865094336737, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "ret_p1w": 0.007857264330454528, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.007857264330454528, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.018575014625236475, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.018575014625236475, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "bench_c_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "ret_p1m": 0.021356278328806044, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.021356278328806044, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.008501732383607075, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.008501732383607075, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "ret_p3m": 0.05487451871800242, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05487451871800242, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.003958834940376077, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.003958834940376077, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.021356278328806044, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.008501732383607075, "alpha_c_stated": 0.008501732383607075, "price_path": [-0.0598, -0.0514, -0.048, -0.0548, -0.0618, -0.0706, -0.0651, -0.0668, -0.0789, -0.0691, -0.0818, -0.0739, -0.0663, -0.066, -0.0655, -0.0873, -0.087, -0.1045, -0.1017, -0.1011, -0.1168, -0.0937, -0.0809, -0.0624, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0502, -0.0589, -0.0614, -0.0496, -0.0431, -0.0449, -0.0471, -0.0464, -0.0309, -0.0206, -0.0345, -0.039, -0.0445, -0.0517, -0.0465, -0.0387, -0.0292, -0.0335, -0.0316, -0.0316, -0.034, -0.0398, -0.045, -0.0536, -0.0536, -0.0421, -0.0282, -0.0148, -0.0195, -0.0124, -0.0043, -0.0011, -0.0004, 0.0036, 0.0139, 0.0131, 0.0131, 0.0, 0.019, 0.0228, 0.0082, 0.0064, 0.0079, 0.004, 0.003, -0.0086, 0.0004, 0.0025, 0.0019, -0.0097, 0.0238, 0.0277, 0.0261, 0.0226, 0.0047, 0.0163, 0.0163, 0.0174, 0.0214, 0.0224, 0.0257, 0.0089, 0.0189, 0.0233, 0.0281, 0.0151, 0.0241, 0.0064, 0.0112, -0.0055, -0.0286, -0.0185, -0.0213, -0.0237, -0.044, -0.0463, -0.0385, -0.0311, -0.0433, -0.0391, -0.0601, -0.0414, -0.0349, -0.0248, -0.0405, -0.0567, -0.0671, -0.0371, -0.03, -0.0261, -0.0261, -0.022, -0.0203, 0.0085, 0.0123, 0.0095, 0.0222, 0.0318, 0.0315, 0.0335, 0.0549, 0.0612, 0.0526, 0.0543, 0.0525, 0.0557, 0.057, 0.0456, 0.0382, 0.0581, 0.0609, 0.0549, 0.0705, 0.0884, 0.0727, 0.0788, 0.0795, 0.0709, 0.0697, 0.0753, 0.0534, 0.0498, 0.0391, 0.0619, 0.0677, 0.077, 0.077, 0.0957, 0.0933, 0.0971, 0.0952, 0.092, 0.102, 0.0937, 0.1044, 0.0737, 0.0795, 0.0858, 0.0723, 0.1016, 0.1104, 0.1172, 0.1106, 0.0995, 0.1163, 0.1163, 0.1233, 0.1123, 0.1182, 0.1276, 0.1276, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006074344448090143", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-30T18:46:09+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "it is totally ludicrous to own shares in $OPEN. The company is guiding for losses again in 2026. What is beyond dispute is that the valuation is very expensive on present metrics.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: guiding for losses in 2026, valuation expensive on current metrics, no rational basis to own it.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "On that basis then it is totally ludicrous to own shares in $OPEN \nThe company is guiding for losses again in 2026. \nWhat is beyond dispute is that the valuation is very expensive on present metrics.\nBy your own logic therefore to own the stock based on a narrative of profits way out in the future…", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 I don't think anyone can see 3 years into the future.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "usppdd", "ret_m1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.002935074714031427, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0004979560193262289, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": -0.002210323933803826, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.005696485054359934, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007374191673935826, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009086559588413423, "ret_p1w": 0.18664377521766307, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18664377521766307, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1796569302567066, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.18713496888487047, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0004911936672074013, "ret_p1m": -0.01369861671503625, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01369861671503625, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02594006424269446, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.016891042571478443, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0031924258564421937, "ret_p3m": -0.17808218059586356, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17808218059586356, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1035734291768895, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1672500425829061, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01083213801295746, "ret_p6m": -0.2671232708937953, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2671232708937953, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3400868031499439, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3771875656046678, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11006429471087253, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.01369861671503625, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02594006424269446, "alpha_c_stated": 0.016891042571478443, "price_path": [0.3716, 0.3887, 0.589, 0.5908, 0.4538, 0.3938, 0.2962, 0.2449, 0.3082, 0.2637, 0.2175, 0.226, 0.262, 0.1918, 0.1678, 0.2038, 0.3647, 0.3973, 0.3647, 0.3099, 0.2568, 0.3305, 0.2997, 0.1849, 0.238, 0.1233, 0.1233, 0.3647, 0.4521, 0.6045, 0.4658, 0.3904, 0.3425, 0.2877, 0.1455, 0.0548, 0.1558, 0.3168, 0.3253, 0.3322, 0.3322, 0.3185, 0.2226, 0.1969, 0.1884, 0.2979, 0.2243, 0.2072, 0.2688, 0.1986, 0.2072, 0.1233, 0.1079, 0.1524, 0.0479, 0.0753, 0.089, 0.0993, 0.0736, 0.0753, 0.0753, 0.0291, -0.0017, 0.0, -0.0017, -0.0017, 0.0394, 0.0822, 0.1866, 0.0479, 0.101, 0.2483, 0.2021, 0.1592, 0.137, 0.0788, 0.1421, 0.1421, 0.0942, 0.1096, 0.0993, 0.0291, 0.0051, -0.0051, -0.0137, -0.0445, -0.1182, -0.1747, -0.1216, -0.1438, -0.1952, -0.1644, -0.1541, -0.1969, -0.1849, -0.25, -0.2389, -0.2389, -0.2586, -0.2072, -0.2038, -0.1438, -0.1815, -0.125, -0.1473, -0.0736, -0.0719, -0.1353, -0.149, -0.1644, -0.113, -0.1438, -0.1301, -0.1421, -0.0976, -0.1712, -0.1524, -0.113, -0.0479, -0.0959, -0.1199, -0.1592, -0.1079, -0.113, -0.1267, -0.161, -0.1781, -0.2414, -0.1986, -0.2175, -0.1884, -0.1884, -0.2106, -0.2209, -0.2055, -0.262, -0.2603, -0.2534, -0.2277, -0.1747, -0.0976, -0.0942, -0.0839, -0.0668, -0.0702, -0.1062, -0.0565, -0.0771, -0.0616, -0.0445, -0.0788, -0.0685, -0.1216, -0.1045, -0.0651, -0.089, -0.1421, -0.1695, -0.1935, -0.2158, -0.2346, -0.25, -0.2671, -0.2637, -0.2466, -0.2175, -0.2243, -0.2243, -0.2329, -0.1866, -0.1318, -0.137, -0.0908, -0.0736, -0.1661, -0.1524, -0.2432, -0.262, -0.2568, -0.2329, -0.2346, -0.2397, -0.2106, -0.1866, -0.238, -0.2346, -0.2346, -0.2671, -0.2808, -0.2671]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2048370166992441473", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-26T11:54:39+00:00", "symbol": "ORCL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$ORCL will go bust", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Claims Oracle will go bust if OpenAI can't pay $75B/yr Stargate contract; strongly bearish ORCL.", "resolved_tickers": ["ORCL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "DROP EVERYTHING AND READ THIS\n\n$ORCL will go bust.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Premium Newsletter: OpenAI needs to raise or make $852 billion through 2030 to pay for its compute costs, and must pay $75bn a year for Oracle's 7.1GW of Stargate data centers, or Oracle will collapse, destroying its share price and Ellison's empire.\nhttps://t.co/fmxKU8v0bi", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.001850092813415971, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.001850092813415971, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0035699177574831653, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0035699177574831653, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0017198249440671942, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0017198249440671942, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04047178381289207, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04047178381289207, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03560579154577259, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03560579154577259, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004865992267119479, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004865992267119479, "ret_p1w": 0.04237966170059093, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04237966170059093, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.038408577348396866, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.038408577348396866, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003971084352194065, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003971084352194065, "ret_p1m": 0.1162117834441263, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1162117834441263, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.066685017663064, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.066685017663064, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0495267657810623, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0495267657810623, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1162117834441263, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.066685017663064, "alpha_c_stated": -0.066685017663064, "price_path": [-0.0044, -0.0262, -0.0518, -0.0778, -0.1089, -0.155, -0.2137, -0.1771, -0.0978, -0.0788, -0.0945, -0.0984, -0.0773, -0.0773, -0.1129, -0.1002, -0.0981, -0.1468, -0.1858, -0.158, -0.1479, -0.134, -0.1623, -0.1401, -0.1415, -0.1221, -0.1082, -0.1187, -0.1268, -0.1392, -0.0602, -0.083, -0.1063, -0.1014, -0.1087, -0.1191, -0.104, -0.1376, -0.1108, -0.1525, -0.1587, -0.1772, -0.1953, -0.2003, -0.1524, -0.1632, -0.1566, -0.1566, -0.1615, -0.1751, -0.1723, -0.2029, -0.2016, -0.1003, -0.0576, -0.0182, 0.0311, 0.0121, 0.0267, 0.0475, 0.0841, 0.0192, 0.0019, 0.0, -0.0405, -0.0528, -0.0669, -0.0065, 0.0424, 0.0716, 0.1218, 0.1251, 0.1329, 0.1207, 0.0802, 0.0971, 0.131, 0.1156, 0.0789, 0.0491, 0.0879, 0.0972, 0.1105, 0.1105, 0.1162, 0.1041, 0.1777, 0.3054, 0.4347, 0.4141, 0.3317, 0.3664, 0.2354, 0.2247, 0.1899, 0.1636, 0.0644, 0.0646, 0.1138, 0.0889, 0.0611, 0.0655, 0.0655, 0.0122, -0.0451, -0.0892, -0.1185, -0.1412, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007894374336905595", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-04T19:18:18+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I would hate myself if I ignored the obscene valuation and owned the biggest bubble at scale in market history, only to see it crash 80% - TESLA. $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: calls it the biggest bubble in market history at obscene valuation, predicting an 80% crash.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I would hate myself if I ignored the obscene valuation and owned the biggest bubble at scale in market history, only to see it crash 80% - TESLA. $TSLA\n\nThere, I fixed it.\n\n@BradMunchen", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 I would hate myself if I worried about valuations and didn’t own and participate with one of the greatest founders and companies in American history.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2009222184472854756", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-08T11:14:32+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Do you know that $OPEN remains an asset heavy, low margin, house flipper? ... cumulative losses to date are approaching $4B ... $OPEN expects to lose money again in 2026 ... the stock is up 13x from the lows of last summer ... $OPEN is presently valued at 6x book value ... valued at 20x EV/sales", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: perennial losses, $4B cumulative deficit, expects loss in 2026, trading at 20x EV/sales and 6x book after 13x rally from lows.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Opendoor Army,\n\nIt was only a few months ago that the momentum was powerful and the FOMO was palpable.\n \nIt was a glorious time. “Number go up” they said. $82 was inevitable and then onward to $500. What could possibly go wrong?\n\nWell, your general has deserted you.\n\nHe deceived you.\nHe committed analytical malpractice.\nHe sold you a bill of goods. \nQuite candidly, he bagged you.\n\nNow you are on your own. \nDo you really know what you own?\n\nDo you own $OPEN because of careful study or FOMO?\n\nDo you know that that $OPEN remains an asset heavy, low margin, house flipper?\n\nDo you know that house flipping is a fiercely competitive industry where profits are scarce because of information asymmetry?\n\nDo you know that $OPEN has lost money every single year since its founding in 2014?  \nEVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.\n\nDo you know that cumulative losses to date are approaching $4B?\n\nDo you know that cofounders \n@rabois and @ericwu01 (who have just returned) were responsible for 90% of those losses? \n\nDo you know that @nejatian ,\nwhile undoubtedly a smart guy, \nknows little about real estate.\n\nDo you know that most tech bro\nhave struggled or failed in real estate\nas tech is vastly different from tech?\n\nDo you know that $OPEN trailing 12 month revenues (or what they call gross profits) are only $378mm but that the enterprise value is $7.5B?\n\nDo you know that $OPEN expects to lose money again in 2026? \n\nDid you know that any turnaround will take years but that the stock is up 13x from the lows of last summer?\n\nDo you know that $OPEN is presently valued at 6x book value? (1.5x book would be generous if profitable)\n\nDo you know that $OPEN is valued at 20x EV/sales?\n\nDo you know that the leading real estate broker $COMP is valued at .9x \nEV/sales?\n\nDo you know that very few fundamentally oriented institutions or hedge funds own $OPEN ? \nThe only large holders are quant shops and trading firms. \n\nYour attention to this matter is greatly appreciated.\n\nPS - Please sign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nThe focus will be on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. Making money will be the objective. \n\nI will be phasing out my posts on X.\n\nhttps://t.co/0z4XWvrm4l…", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.048211500941771956, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.048211500941771956, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.048313038564887445, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.04079315576182829, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00010153762311548853, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007418345179943664, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.13374808032251684, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.13374808032251684, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.1271346973256282, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.13226439212733143, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.006613382996888628, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014836881951854064, "ret_p1w": -0.02021767357299431, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.02021767357299431, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.024177017944294943, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.051375029875905365, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003959344371300633, "bench_c_p1w": 0.031157356302911055, "ret_p1m": -0.24105750470885978, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.24105750470885978, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.24266733433388954, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.27938595675784483, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0016098296250297572, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03832845204898505, "ret_p3m": -0.29237942267403016, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.29237942267403016, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.2510606402783224, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.33096537432713835, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04131878239570774, "bench_c_p3m": 0.038585951653108186, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.24105750470885978, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.24266733433388954, "alpha_c_stated": 0.27938595675784483, "price_path": [0.1306, 0.1882, 0.1477, 0.1058, 0.1135, 0.1462, 0.0824, 0.0607, 0.0933, 0.2395, 0.2691, 0.2395, 0.1897, 0.1415, 0.2084, 0.1804, 0.0762, 0.1244, 0.0202, 0.0202, 0.2395, 0.3188, 0.4572, 0.3313, 0.2628, 0.2193, 0.1695, 0.0404, -0.042, 0.0498, 0.196, 0.2037, 0.21, 0.21, 0.1975, 0.1104, 0.0871, 0.0793, 0.1788, 0.112, 0.0964, 0.1524, 0.0886, 0.0964, 0.0202, 0.0062, 0.0467, -0.0482, -0.0233, -0.0109, -0.0016, -0.0249, -0.0233, -0.0233, -0.0653, -0.0933, -0.0918, -0.0933, -0.0933, -0.056, -0.0171, 0.0778, -0.0482, 0.0, 0.1337, 0.0918, 0.0529, 0.0327, -0.0202, 0.0373, 0.0373, -0.0062, 0.0078, -0.0016, -0.0653, -0.0871, -0.0964, -0.1042, -0.1322, -0.1991, -0.2504, -0.2022, -0.2224, -0.2691, -0.2411, -0.2317, -0.2706, -0.2597, -0.3188, -0.3087, -0.3087, -0.3266, -0.2799, -0.2768, -0.2224, -0.2566, -0.2053, -0.2255, -0.1586, -0.1571, -0.2146, -0.2271, -0.2411, -0.1944, -0.2224, -0.21, -0.2208, -0.1804, -0.2473, -0.2302, -0.1944, -0.1353, -0.1788, -0.2006, -0.2364, -0.1897, -0.1944, -0.2068, -0.2379, -0.2535, -0.311, -0.2722, -0.2893, -0.2628, -0.2628, -0.283, -0.2924, -0.2784, -0.3297, -0.3281, -0.3219, -0.2986, -0.2504, -0.1804, -0.1773, -0.168, -0.1524, -0.1555, -0.1882, -0.1431, -0.1617, -0.1477, -0.1322, -0.1633, -0.154, -0.2022, -0.1866, -0.1509, -0.1726, -0.2208, -0.2457, -0.2675, -0.2877, -0.3048, -0.3188, -0.3344, -0.3313, -0.3157, -0.2893, -0.2955, -0.2955, -0.3033, -0.2613, -0.2115, -0.2162, -0.1742, -0.1586, -0.2426, -0.2302, -0.3126, -0.3297, -0.325, -0.3033, -0.3048, -0.3095, -0.283, -0.2613, -0.3079, -0.3048, -0.3048, -0.3344, -0.3468, -0.3344, -0.3313, -0.3204, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2023524282496602603", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-16T22:25:58+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "still remains wildly overvalued. My invaluable investment advice remains to desert from the $OPEN army", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author reiterates bearish OPEN call: still wildly overvalued, advises exiting despite 40% prior decline.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You got bagged by @ericjackson .You are still in denial about that.\n$OPEN has already declined by 40% since I first sounded the alarm but still remains wildly overvalued. My invaluable investment advice remains to desert from the $OPEN army. I am sure you would agree that it is important to call out bad actors and charlatans. @ericjackson is an odious, opportunistic, financially illiterate carnival barker who belongs in jail. Your ire should more properly be directed  at him.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @rabois I’ll say it again... It’s really disturbing how you want to see the downfall of such a transformational company.. Instead of supporting them, potentially sharing invaluable advice from your investment years, you glee and hope for a bad demise.. It’s borderline evil!..", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02655894918743873, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02655894918743873, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.02816983307269616, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03657260425176778, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.010013655064329052, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06928410993552458, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06928410993552458, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06424640238494783, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08271144291666632, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013427332981141737, "ret_p1w": 0.18013861975792977, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18013861975792977, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.17354861572061098, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.18491780410764613, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004779184349716359, "ret_p1m": 0.21939960804645642, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.21939960804645642, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.25076812790502356, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.2630955494030335, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04369594135657706, "ret_p3m": 0.011547388363939648, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.011547388363939648, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.07388678694159778, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0210929730736531, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": -0.00954558470971345, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.21939960804645642, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.25076812790502356, "alpha_c_stated": -0.2630955494030335, "price_path": [0.4226, 0.5589, 0.776, 0.7875, 0.7968, 0.7968, 0.7783, 0.649, 0.6143, 0.6028, 0.7506, 0.6513, 0.6282, 0.7113, 0.6166, 0.6282, 0.515, 0.4942, 0.5543, 0.4134, 0.4503, 0.4688, 0.4827, 0.448, 0.4503, 0.4503, 0.388, 0.3464, 0.3487, 0.3464, 0.3464, 0.4018, 0.4596, 0.6005, 0.4134, 0.485, 0.6836, 0.6212, 0.5635, 0.5335, 0.455, 0.5404, 0.5404, 0.4758, 0.4965, 0.4827, 0.388, 0.3557, 0.3418, 0.3303, 0.2887, 0.1894, 0.1132, 0.1848, 0.1547, 0.0855, 0.127, 0.1409, 0.0831, 0.0993, 0.0115, 0.0266, 0.0266, 0.0, 0.0693, 0.0739, 0.1547, 0.1039, 0.1801, 0.1501, 0.2494, 0.2517, 0.1663, 0.1478, 0.127, 0.1963, 0.1547, 0.1732, 0.157, 0.2171, 0.1178, 0.1432, 0.1963, 0.2841, 0.2194, 0.1871, 0.1339, 0.2032, 0.1963, 0.1778, 0.1316, 0.1085, 0.0231, 0.0808, 0.0554, 0.0947, 0.0947, 0.0647, 0.0508, 0.0716, -0.0046, -0.0023, 0.0069, 0.0416, 0.1132, 0.2171, 0.2217, 0.2356, 0.2587, 0.254, 0.2055, 0.2725, 0.2448, 0.2656, 0.2887, 0.2425, 0.2564, 0.1848, 0.2079, 0.261, 0.2286, 0.157, 0.1201, 0.0878, 0.0577, 0.0323, 0.0115, -0.0115, -0.0069, 0.0162, 0.0554, 0.0462, 0.0462, 0.0346, 0.097, 0.1709, 0.164, 0.2263, 0.2494, 0.1247, 0.1432, 0.0208, -0.0046, 0.0023, 0.0346, 0.0323, 0.0254, 0.0647, 0.097, 0.0277, 0.0323, 0.0323, -0.0115, -0.03, -0.0115, -0.0069, 0.0092, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2019519905364631577", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-05T21:14:00+00:00", "symbol": "NVDA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Nvidia's receivables are up 770% in 33 months (Cisco's were up 140% before they collapsed). Every part of the AI stack is losing money except Nvidia - and they're the ones extending vendor financing to keep the whole thing afloat.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish AI infrastructure stack: NVDA analog to Cisco 2000 collapse, ORCL below pre-OpenAI-deal price, Blue Owl and Fermi already down sharply; capital misallocation dwarfs dotcom bubble.", "resolved_tickers": ["NVDA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I just learned something that should terrify every AI investor:\n\nSix major large language models were tested on real freelance work - the kind actual humans get paid to do on Upwork.\n\nNot homework. Not summaries. Real commercial tasks that generate real revenue.\n\nBuilding video games. Creating presentations from rough notes. Architectural schematics.\n\nThe BEST performing AI completed tasks well enough to get paid 2.5% of the time.\n\nThe worst? 0.3%.\n\nThink about that.\n\nIf you were an Uber driver who completed 2.5% of your rides, you'd be kicked off the platform in a week.\n\nThis comes from academic research published in the Remote Labor Index - not some anti-AI hit piece.\n\nThey eliminated jobs requiring physical work or heavy human interaction and focused purely on digital deliverables where AI should theoretically excel.\n\nAnd it failed 97.5% of the time.\n\nMeanwhile, US tech companies are spending $380 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025-2026.\n\nData centers using the power of 619 houses per GPU stack.\n\nOracle's shares are now BELOW where they were before announcing their massive OpenAI partnership.\n\nBlue Owl Capital (AI infrastructure funder): down 40%\n\nFermi (data center REIT): down 60%\n\nThe funding markets are already getting more discerning.\n\nAnd we haven't even hit the real reckoning yet.\n\nAI is excellent at correlation. But correlation isn't how the world works.\n\nIt can regurgitate answers to questions it's been trained on.\n\nBut ask it to actually BUILD something, execute a complex task, or operate in the real world where correlations don't hold?\n\nIt falls apart.\n\nScam Altman showed Operator - OpenAI's agent that's supposed to act like a CEO's assistant.\n\n19 minutes into the demo, they revealed it worked 34% of the time.\n\nOn their own metrics. Their own homework. That THEY graded.\n\n34%.\n\nAnd that's in a controlled demo environment.\n\nIn the real world with actual commercial deliverables it's 2.5%.\n\nThe capital misallocation is 17 times larger than the dotcom bubble.\n\nNvidia's receivables are up 770% in 33 months (Cisco's were up 140% before they collapsed).\n\nEvery part of the AI stack is losing money except Nvidia - and they're the ones extending vendor financing to keep the whole thing afloat.\n\nThis isn't a technology that's \"almost there.\"\n\nThis is a technology with fundamental architectural limits that can't be overcome by just adding more compute.\n\nI sat down with Julian Garran - one of the sharpest macro strategists I know - and he walked through why AI was \"built to fail\" from day one.\n\nThe full conversation covers:\n\n- Why the economics of data centers guarantee losses\n- The Cisco 2000 playbook playing out in real time  \n- What happens when the funding dries up\n- Where smart money is rotating (hint: it's not tech)\n\nThis is a career-defining inflection point in markets.\n\nAnd most investors are still positioned for a productivity revolution that isn't coming.\n\nThe full interview is in the comment below.\n\n---\n\nWatch the full interview for free:\n\nhttps://t.co/vLmATab9fY", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.07297341480400665, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.07297341480400665, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05414975619825069, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.021734806849316612, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.018823658605755966, "bench_c_m1d": -0.05123860795469004, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02497159743538102, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.02497159743538102, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.020149870718803697, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.012522947924661354, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.004821726716577324, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012448649510719667, "ret_p1w": -0.014023055598494039, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.014023055598494039, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0011795109017004313, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.029135734339834074, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012843544696793607, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015112678741340035, "ret_p1m": -0.014886009063112549, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.014886009063112549, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.002996493266455791, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.0032392215852741213, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.01788250232956834, "bench_c_p1m": -0.01812523064838667, "ret_p3m": 0.12098182400660229, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.12098182400660229, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.055512957061737866, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.2477721113098077, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.06546886694486442, "bench_c_p3m": 0.36875393531641, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.014886009063112549, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.002996493266455791, "alpha_c_stated": -0.0032392215852741213, "price_path": [0.0417, 0.0452, 0.0078, 0.0256, 0.0064, -0.0219, 0.0059, -0.0258, -0.0353, -0.0155, -0.041, -0.0278, -0.0278, -0.0454, -0.0297, -0.0214, -0.0314, -0.0109, -0.0162, 0.0008, -0.0024, -0.0088, -0.0242, -0.056, -0.0492, -0.0415, -0.078, -0.0608, -0.0238, -0.0093, 0.0205, 0.0173, 0.0173, 0.0276, 0.0152, 0.0115, 0.0059, 0.0059, 0.0186, 0.0146, 0.0099, 0.02, -0.002, -0.003, -0.0025, 0.0022, -0.0122, 0.0088, 0.0044, 0.0044, -0.0396, -0.0113, -0.0031, 0.0122, 0.0057, 0.0168, 0.033, 0.0383, 0.0309, 0.0011, -0.0273, -0.0605, -0.073, 0.0, 0.025, 0.0169, 0.025, 0.0083, -0.014, -0.014, -0.0024, 0.0139, 0.0134, 0.0238, 0.0331, 0.0401, 0.0547, -0.0028, -0.0443, -0.0158, -0.0289, -0.0128, -0.0112, -0.0409, -0.0149, -0.0035, 0.0034, -0.0122, -0.0278, -0.0118, -0.0187, -0.027, -0.0369, -0.0685, -0.0526, -0.055, -0.0362, -0.0764, -0.0964, -0.1091, -0.0593, -0.052, -0.0432, -0.0432, -0.0419, -0.0394, -0.0179, -0.008, 0.0174, 0.0211, 0.0599, 0.0727, 0.0698, 0.0878, 0.0899, 0.0781, 0.0922, 0.0768, 0.1234, 0.1683, 0.1498, 0.1286, 0.0764, 0.0704, 0.0706, 0.0599, 0.121, 0.1408, 0.1607, 0.1836, 0.1908, 0.2181, 0.2715, 0.2153, 0.1991, 0.1899, 0.2053, 0.184, 0.1614, 0.1614, 0.1589, 0.1467, 0.1556, 0.1388, 0.2101, 0.2018, 0.1583, 0.1808, 0.1075, 0.1267, 0.1242, 0.0823, 0.1063, 0.108, 0.1472, 0.12, 0.1051, 0.1377, 0.1377, 0.1267, 0.0802, 0.0746, 0.057, 0.0397, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2047104598985379906", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-23T00:05:44+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SHORT $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA; Q1 2026 financials were dressed up via accounting levers masking near-zero underlying business growth.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "SHORT $TSLA\n@GordonJohnson19 \n@BradMunchen \n@StanphylCap \n\n“Let’s call this what it is: Tesla made every possible move to present Q1 2026 in the best possible light during a quarter where the actual business showed almost no growth.\nThe company released warranty reserves, booked tariff refund windfalls, stretched supplier payments by 10 days, took on billions in new debt, and then presented the results through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock compensation. None of this is illegal — it’s all standard corporate finance. But the cumulative effect is a set of financials designed to tell a story that the underlying operations don’t support.”", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Tesla (TSLA) pulled questionable levers to make Q1 2026 financials look good https://t.co/rNQuvduuwf by @fredlambert", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03689930562955901, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03689930562955901, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03300344593924298, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.026792256588431984, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003895859690316028, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010107049041127025, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0069035282132037246, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0069035282132037246, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0008457810240278807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0011651778525969547, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007749309237231605, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00806870606580068, "ret_p1w": 0.021165588237912036, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.021165588237912036, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0067539132350464826, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.015984675397364256, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014411675002865554, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00518091284054778, "ret_p1m": 0.13991760776550355, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1276872252746062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.052494860901207696, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012230382490897362, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1276872252746062, "price_path": [0.1645, 0.153, 0.1545, 0.1146, 0.1517, 0.1287, 0.1291, 0.0864, 0.0629, 0.1, 0.1167, 0.1378, 0.146, 0.116, 0.117, 0.117, 0.0988, 0.1006, 0.1017, 0.1019, 0.0699, 0.0954, 0.1169, 0.0933, 0.077, 0.0792, 0.0501, 0.0862, 0.0852, 0.0616, 0.0668, 0.0683, 0.0912, 0.057, 0.0468, 0.0584, 0.0684, 0.051, 0.0176, -0.0154, 0.0191, 0.0249, 0.0327, -0.0043, -0.0318, -0.0493, -0.0053, 0.0202, -0.0351, -0.0351, -0.0559, -0.0724, -0.0815, -0.0752, -0.0663, -0.057, -0.0255, 0.0488, 0.0406, 0.072, 0.0503, 0.034, 0.0369, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0132, 0.0062, -0.0025, 0.0212, 0.0458, 0.0503, 0.0419, 0.0669, 0.1019, 0.1462, 0.1907, 0.1598, 0.1915, 0.1862, 0.1298, 0.0971, 0.0813, 0.1165, 0.1181, 0.1399, 0.1399, 0.1602, 0.1783, 0.183, 0.1661, 0.1128, 0.1338, 0.1337, 0.1197, 0.0462, 0.0943, 0.0614, 0.0211, 0.068, 0.0875, 0.1002, 0.0828, 0.0606, 0.0716, 0.0716, 0.0838, 0.0211, 0.0048, 0.0037, 0.016, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2028510833005691158", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-02T16:40:45+00:00", "symbol": "GLD", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Buy GLD. Buy GDX. I said it then. I'M SAYING IT NOW.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Reiterates long gold and gold miners now: geopolitical risk, Fed boxed in, central bank buying, dollar weakness, phenomenal chart structure.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "On April 23, 2025, gold was trading around $3,300.\n\nI went on the Schwab Network and said something very simple:\n\n\"If you actually look at the chart of gold over a long period of time, it's only just now broken out in inflation-adjusted terms.\"\n\nGold is now trading above $5,300.\n\nThat's a 60%+ move in less than a year.\n\nAt the time, everyone was still debating whether to buy the Mag 7 or QQQ. I said gold was widely under-owned. That central banks were buying hand over fist. That the longer-term chart structure was phenomenal.\n\nI also said something that's worth repeating today:\n\n\"What do you call a market that doesn't let you in?\"\n\nA bull market.\n\nThat's EXACTLY what happened.\n\nGold blew through $4,000. Then $4,500. Then $5,000. Hit an all-time high near $5,600 in January. It never gave you a clean entry. It never gave you a 20% pullback to wait for. It just kept going.\n\nAnd the miners?\n\nI said on that same interview: \n\n\"The gold miners have been catching up with a vengeance. Their costs are well under control. Energy is a major component of their cost structure. Their profit margins are exploding.\"\n\nGDX returned 185% over the past year. All-in sustaining costs stayed around $1,600/oz while gold nearly doubled. Average miner margins blew past $2,500/oz. \n\nThe thesis hasn't changed:\n\nGold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. And it's an asset that isn't somebody else's liability.\n\nThat last point matters more today than it did in April.\n\nWith Middle East tensions escalating, the Fed boxed into a corner on rates, and geopolitical risk at levels we haven't seen in DECADES, gold is doing exactly what it's supposed to do.\n\nThe best calls are never the complicated ones.\n\nSometimes it's as simple as: the chart structure is phenomenal, it's widely under-owned, and central banks are buying hand over fist.\n\nBuy GLD. Buy GDX. I said it then. I'M SAYING IT NOW.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/V0JdC1b2vh", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.012755102040816313, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.012755102040816313, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01218690208950124, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01218690208950124, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0005681999513150737, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0005681999513150737, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04461221500318879, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04461221500318879, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03579796409070313, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03579796409070313, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008814250912485666, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008814250912485666, "ret_p1w": -0.035653063715720634, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.035653063715720634, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.023837436911880228, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.023837436911880228, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011815626803840407, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011815626803840407, "ret_p1m": -0.12185712541852678, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.12185712541852678, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.07193741629113115, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.07193741629113115, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04991970912739563, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04991970912739563, "ret_p3m": -0.157612267319037, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.157612267319037, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2600057246879046, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2600057246879046, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10239345736886762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10239345736886762, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.12185712541852678, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.07193741629113115, "alpha_c_stated": -0.07193741629113115, "price_path": [-0.2104, -0.2099, -0.2113, -0.2134, -0.2094, -0.206, -0.1975, -0.193, -0.1922, -0.1921, -0.1851, -0.1866, -0.1857, -0.1669, -0.1558, -0.1593, -0.1593, -0.1495, -0.1865, -0.1859, -0.1912, -0.1912, -0.1872, -0.1658, -0.1568, -0.1648, -0.1602, -0.1541, -0.1383, -0.1395, -0.1307, -0.1361, -0.1402, -0.1402, -0.1077, -0.0947, -0.078, -0.0653, -0.0516, -0.0284, 0.0093, 0.012, -0.0919, -0.1283, -0.0729, -0.0735, -0.0982, -0.0705, -0.0469, -0.0563, -0.0457, -0.0788, -0.0559, -0.0559, -0.0853, -0.0647, -0.0621, -0.0436, -0.0178, -0.0314, -0.0338, -0.0256, -0.0128, 0.0, -0.0446, -0.0371, -0.0487, -0.0337, -0.0357, -0.0248, -0.0281, -0.0472, -0.0595, -0.0603, -0.0627, -0.0924, -0.1298, -0.1564, -0.1754, -0.1752, -0.1504, -0.1824, -0.1537, -0.1539, -0.1219, -0.1065, -0.1237, -0.1237, -0.1272, -0.1188, -0.1132, -0.1063, -0.1079, -0.1115, -0.0917, -0.1011, -0.1019, -0.0899, -0.0978, -0.1233, -0.1117, -0.1203, -0.1158, -0.1227, -0.139, -0.1481, -0.1354, -0.1364, -0.1537, -0.1464, -0.1205, -0.119, -0.1148, -0.113, -0.1165, -0.1214, -0.1281, -0.1484, -0.1461, -0.1602, -0.1482, -0.149, -0.1555, -0.1555, -0.1551, -0.1663, -0.1576, -0.1487, -0.1607, -0.1593, -0.1676, -0.1607, -0.1913, -0.1892, -0.2025, -0.2356, -0.2116, -0.2111, -0.1907, -0.1885, -0.2069, -0.21, -0.21, -0.2151, -0.23, -0.2532, -0.246, -0.2375, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2028510833005691158", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-02T16:40:45+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Buy GLD. Buy GDX. I said it then. I'M SAYING IT NOW.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Reiterates long gold and gold miners now: geopolitical risk, Fed boxed in, central bank buying, dollar weakness, phenomenal chart structure.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "On April 23, 2025, gold was trading around $3,300.\n\nI went on the Schwab Network and said something very simple:\n\n\"If you actually look at the chart of gold over a long period of time, it's only just now broken out in inflation-adjusted terms.\"\n\nGold is now trading above $5,300.\n\nThat's a 60%+ move in less than a year.\n\nAt the time, everyone was still debating whether to buy the Mag 7 or QQQ. I said gold was widely under-owned. That central banks were buying hand over fist. That the longer-term chart structure was phenomenal.\n\nI also said something that's worth repeating today:\n\n\"What do you call a market that doesn't let you in?\"\n\nA bull market.\n\nThat's EXACTLY what happened.\n\nGold blew through $4,000. Then $4,500. Then $5,000. Hit an all-time high near $5,600 in January. It never gave you a clean entry. It never gave you a 20% pullback to wait for. It just kept going.\n\nAnd the miners?\n\nI said on that same interview: \n\n\"The gold miners have been catching up with a vengeance. Their costs are well under control. Energy is a major component of their cost structure. Their profit margins are exploding.\"\n\nGDX returned 185% over the past year. All-in sustaining costs stayed around $1,600/oz while gold nearly doubled. Average miner margins blew past $2,500/oz. \n\nThe thesis hasn't changed:\n\nGold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. And it's an asset that isn't somebody else's liability.\n\nThat last point matters more today than it did in April.\n\nWith Middle East tensions escalating, the Fed boxed into a corner on rates, and geopolitical risk at levels we haven't seen in DECADES, gold is doing exactly what it's supposed to do.\n\nThe best calls are never the complicated ones.\n\nSometimes it's as simple as: the chart structure is phenomenal, it's widely under-owned, and central banks are buying hand over fist.\n\nBuy GLD. Buy GDX. I said it then. I'M SAYING IT NOW.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3 https://t.co/V0JdC1b2vh", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.00433500967465994, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.00433500967465994, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0049032096259750135, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0049032096259750135, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0005681999513150737, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0005681999513150737, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0875671821987315, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0875671821987315, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.07875293128624583, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.07875293128624583, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008814250912485666, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008814250912485666, "ret_p1w": -0.1118431966886283, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.1118431966886283, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.10002756988478789, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.10002756988478789, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011815626803840407, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011815626803840407, "ret_p1m": -0.2043523534175905, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.2043523534175905, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.15443264429019488, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.15443264429019488, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.04991970912739563, "bench_c_p1m": -0.04991970912739563, "ret_p3m": -0.24414771048040973, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.24414771048040973, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.34654116784927735, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.34654116784927735, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10239345736886762, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10239345736886762, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.2043523534175905, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.15443264429019488, "alpha_c_stated": -0.15443264429019488, "price_path": [-0.3023, -0.2994, -0.3025, -0.3186, -0.2947, -0.2828, -0.2575, -0.2627, -0.2697, -0.2698, -0.2612, -0.2626, -0.2443, -0.2181, -0.2174, -0.2223, -0.2223, -0.2085, -0.2557, -0.2471, -0.2564, -0.2564, -0.2567, -0.2331, -0.2011, -0.2105, -0.2063, -0.1975, -0.1701, -0.1636, -0.1602, -0.1581, -0.1569, -0.1569, -0.1089, -0.1218, -0.0882, -0.0721, -0.0681, -0.0525, -0.0276, -0.0638, -0.1833, -0.1834, -0.1484, -0.1443, -0.1985, -0.1556, -0.1079, -0.1069, -0.0812, -0.1479, -0.0988, -0.0988, -0.1308, -0.1108, -0.0962, -0.0787, -0.0438, -0.0402, -0.0362, -0.0126, 0.0043, 0.0, -0.0876, -0.082, -0.1172, -0.121, -0.1118, -0.1038, -0.1212, -0.1391, -0.1914, -0.1817, -0.1854, -0.2361, -0.2813, -0.3054, -0.2771, -0.2761, -0.2516, -0.2857, -0.2562, -0.2562, -0.2044, -0.1676, -0.1799, -0.1799, -0.1866, -0.1766, -0.1488, -0.1473, -0.1383, -0.1436, -0.1265, -0.1523, -0.1533, -0.1301, -0.1405, -0.1938, -0.1809, -0.2007, -0.1821, -0.1972, -0.2324, -0.2525, -0.2345, -0.2448, -0.2574, -0.256, -0.1985, -0.2048, -0.1799, -0.1538, -0.1578, -0.1657, -0.1855, -0.2427, -0.2445, -0.2736, -0.2513, -0.2545, -0.2629, -0.2629, -0.2327, -0.2592, -0.2441, -0.2241, -0.2485, -0.2366, -0.263, -0.2509, -0.3165, -0.3179, -0.3273, -0.3601, -0.3262, -0.3061, -0.2607, -0.2436, -0.2686, -0.2846, -0.2846, -0.2939, -0.3267, -0.3533, -0.3439, -0.3324, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2016900566753169657", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-29T15:45:41+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Global Liquidity is starting to slow... the cycle is turning against crypto... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... There's a serious problem", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish BTC on peaking global liquidity, Chinese crypto ban, and failed hedge narrative; bullish gold on BRICS/central bank demand and new monetary architecture.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "BITCOIN'S \"DIGITAL GOLD\" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST\n\nWhile gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record...\n\nBitcoin dropped 6% in 2025.\n\nSilver is up 138%.\n\nBitcoin? Down 30% from its October high.\n\nThe \"digital gold\" thesis is collapsing.\n\nBut here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY...\n\nMy good friend Michael Howell at @crossbordercap nailed it:\n\nThis isn't a \"Great Debasement\" trade.\n\nIf it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall.\n\nNeither is happening.\n\nTHE REAL DRIVER: CHINA\n\nThe People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year.\n\nAnd they'll likely do the same again this year.\n\nThis aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge.\n\nYou see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers.\n\nWhy?\n\nThe PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore.\n\nSo when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto.\n\nAnd because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price.\n\nBitcoin gets none of this flow.\n\nTHE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM\n\nMichael's research shows something critical:\n\nCryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet.\n\nAnd Global Liquidity is starting to slow.\n\nDuring the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k.\n\nIn the next upswing, it gained over $100k.\n\nNow liquidity is peaking again.\n\nBond term premia have stopped rising.\n\nBitcoin is flatlining.\n\nThe correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad.\n\nAnd the cycle is turning against crypto.\n\nTHE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING\n\nOn October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history.\n\n$19B wiped out in 24 hours.\n\n1.6M accounts blown up.\n\nBitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000.\n\nOrder book depth collapsed 98%.\n\nThis was a stress test\n\nAnd Bitcoin failed.\n\nTHE \"HEDGE\" THAT ISN'T\n\nDuring recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland:\n\nGold rose 8.6%.\n\nBitcoin dropped 6.6%.\n\nNYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an \"ATM\" during crises.\n\nInvestors sell it first to raise cash.\n\nThat's not a hedge.\n\nThat's a liquidity source.\n\nMeanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels.\n\nThey're not touching Bitcoin.\n\nTHE MINING DEATH SPIRAL\n\nHashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November.\n\nBelow breakeven for most operations.\n\n2025 was the \"harshest margin environment of all time.\"\n\nROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days.\n\nIn 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months.\n\nAI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity.\n\nThe squeeze is structural.\n\nWHERE THIS IS HEADING\n\nPaolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week:\n\n\"There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar.\"\n\nGold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape.\n\nThe BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization.\n\nAnd ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance.\n\nGold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior.\n\nA new monetary age is coming.\n\nAnd Bitcoin isn't part of it.\n\nMY TAKE\n\nMy good friend Michael is right:\n\nMonetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade.\n\nBut Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply.\n\nIt's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity.\n\nAnd that liquidity is peaking.\n\nWhen Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland...\n\nWhen Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines...\n\nWhen the asset fails every stress test thrown at it...\n\nThere's a serious problem.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.05467002923072983, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.05467002923072983, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0526817064936802, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0526817064936802, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0019883227370496304, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0019883227370496304, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.005119696877728619, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.005119696877728619, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0021372127721542844, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0021372127721542844, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0029824841055743345, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0029824841055743345, "ret_p1w": -0.2585037643145256, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.2585037643145256, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.23484519920102276, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.23484519920102276, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02365856511350284, "bench_c_p1w": -0.02365856511350284, "ret_p1m": -0.2209015932637114, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.2209015932637114, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.20930283767613989, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.20930283767613989, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.011598755587571508, "bench_c_p1m": -0.011598755587571508, "ret_p3m": -0.09709981159256798, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.09709981159256798, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12533107695532275, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.12533107695532275, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.028231265362754776, "bench_c_p3m": 0.028231265362754776, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.2209015932637114, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.20930283767613989, "alpha_c_stated": 0.20930283767613989, "price_path": [0.26, 0.2014, 0.2286, 0.198, 0.2225, 0.2535, 0.218, 0.2022, 0.179, 0.1163, 0.0891, 0.0992, 0.0816, 0.0245, 0.0063, 0.0439, 0.0329, 0.0704, 0.0795, 0.0752, 0.0208, 0.0803, 0.106, 0.0896, 0.0571, 0.0719, 0.0961, 0.0882, 0.094, 0.0675, 0.022, 0.0388, 0.0187, 0.0107, 0.0419, 0.0465, 0.0337, 0.0361, 0.0316, 0.0324, 0.0305, 0.0457, 0.0349, 0.0493, 0.0637, 0.1102, 0.1084, 0.0798, 0.0765, 0.0704, 0.0784, 0.1272, 0.1463, 0.13, 0.1297, 0.0945, 0.0443, 0.0569, 0.058, 0.0584, 0.0438, 0.0537, 0.0547, 0.0, -0.0051, -0.0695, -0.1056, -0.1365, -0.2585, -0.1656, -0.1708, -0.1865, -0.2078, -0.2169, -0.1857, -0.1859, -0.2018, -0.2145, -0.2082, -0.1958, -0.2359, -0.2422, -0.1963, -0.2023, -0.2209, -0.1867, -0.1924, -0.1401, -0.1623, -0.1942, -0.1911, -0.1731, -0.1698, -0.1664, -0.1608, -0.1147, -0.1258, -0.1575, -0.1732, -0.166, -0.1614, -0.1661, -0.1567, -0.1865, -0.2155, -0.2113, -0.1931, -0.1949, -0.209, -0.2085, -0.1857, -0.1493, -0.1589, -0.1513, -0.137, -0.1192, -0.1228, -0.1154, -0.1113, -0.0879, -0.1028, -0.0971, -0.0752, -0.0744, -0.084, -0.0851, -0.0971, -0.1039, -0.0976, -0.0755, -0.056, -0.043, -0.0371, -0.0538, -0.0517, -0.0335, -0.0483, -0.0625, -0.0415, -0.065, -0.09, -0.0924, -0.084, -0.083, -0.1073, -0.0861, -0.1033, -0.1208, -0.1304, -0.1323, -0.1566, -0.2112, -0.243, -0.2455, -0.2795, -0.2539, -0.271, -0.2733, -0.2483, -0.2486, -0.2161, -0.2242, -0.2382, -0.2562, -0.2486, -0.2437, -0.2589, -0.2787, -0.2937, -0.2903, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2016900566753169657", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-29T15:45:41+00:00", "symbol": "Gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape... Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish BTC on peaking global liquidity, Chinese crypto ban, and failed hedge narrative; bullish gold on BRICS/central bank demand and new monetary architecture.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "BITCOIN'S \"DIGITAL GOLD\" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST\n\nWhile gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record...\n\nBitcoin dropped 6% in 2025.\n\nSilver is up 138%.\n\nBitcoin? Down 30% from its October high.\n\nThe \"digital gold\" thesis is collapsing.\n\nBut here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY...\n\nMy good friend Michael Howell at @crossbordercap nailed it:\n\nThis isn't a \"Great Debasement\" trade.\n\nIf it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall.\n\nNeither is happening.\n\nTHE REAL DRIVER: CHINA\n\nThe People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year.\n\nAnd they'll likely do the same again this year.\n\nThis aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge.\n\nYou see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers.\n\nWhy?\n\nThe PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore.\n\nSo when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto.\n\nAnd because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price.\n\nBitcoin gets none of this flow.\n\nTHE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM\n\nMichael's research shows something critical:\n\nCryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet.\n\nAnd Global Liquidity is starting to slow.\n\nDuring the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k.\n\nIn the next upswing, it gained over $100k.\n\nNow liquidity is peaking again.\n\nBond term premia have stopped rising.\n\nBitcoin is flatlining.\n\nThe correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad.\n\nAnd the cycle is turning against crypto.\n\nTHE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING\n\nOn October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history.\n\n$19B wiped out in 24 hours.\n\n1.6M accounts blown up.\n\nBitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000.\n\nOrder book depth collapsed 98%.\n\nThis was a stress test\n\nAnd Bitcoin failed.\n\nTHE \"HEDGE\" THAT ISN'T\n\nDuring recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland:\n\nGold rose 8.6%.\n\nBitcoin dropped 6.6%.\n\nNYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an \"ATM\" during crises.\n\nInvestors sell it first to raise cash.\n\nThat's not a hedge.\n\nThat's a liquidity source.\n\nMeanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels.\n\nThey're not touching Bitcoin.\n\nTHE MINING DEATH SPIRAL\n\nHashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November.\n\nBelow breakeven for most operations.\n\n2025 was the \"harshest margin environment of all time.\"\n\nROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days.\n\nIn 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months.\n\nAI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity.\n\nThe squeeze is structural.\n\nWHERE THIS IS HEADING\n\nPaolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week:\n\n\"There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar.\"\n\nGold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape.\n\nThe BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization.\n\nAnd ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance.\n\nGold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior.\n\nA new monetary age is coming.\n\nAnd Bitcoin isn't part of it.\n\nMY TAKE\n\nMy good friend Michael is right:\n\nMonetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade.\n\nBut Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply.\n\nIt's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity.\n\nAnd that liquidity is peaking.\n\nWhen Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland...\n\nWhen Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines...\n\nWhen the asset fails every stress test thrown at it...\n\nThere's a serious problem.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0027021503415672887, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0027021503415672887, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.004690473078616919, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.004690473078616919, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0019883227370496304, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0019883227370496304, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.10274245274560045, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.10274245274560045, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.09975996864002612, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.09975996864002612, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0029824841055743345, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0029824841055743345, "ret_p1w": -0.10893323185833348, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.10893323185833348, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.08527466674483064, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.08527466674483064, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.02365856511350284, "bench_c_p1w": -0.02365856511350284, "ret_p1m": -0.024500895434615755, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.024500895434615755, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.012902139847044247, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.012902139847044247, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.011598755587571508, "bench_c_p1m": -0.011598755587571508, "ret_p3m": -0.14920345058487716, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.14920345058487716, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.17743471594763194, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.17743471594763194, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.028231265362754776, "bench_c_p3m": 0.028231265362754776, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.024500895434615755, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.012902139847044247, "alpha_c_stated": -0.012902139847044247, "price_path": [-0.2563, -0.2694, -0.2609, -0.2618, -0.2573, -0.237, -0.234, -0.2216, -0.2279, -0.2419, -0.2506, -0.2451, -0.2439, -0.2441, -0.2453, -0.2333, -0.2336, -0.2274, -0.2274, -0.2178, -0.2141, -0.2191, -0.2198, -0.2193, -0.2207, -0.2228, -0.2188, -0.2155, -0.207, -0.2026, -0.2019, -0.2017, -0.1948, -0.1963, -0.1954, -0.1768, -0.1659, -0.1693, -0.1693, -0.1596, -0.1962, -0.1956, -0.2008, -0.2008, -0.1969, -0.1757, -0.1668, -0.1748, -0.1702, -0.1642, -0.1486, -0.1498, -0.1411, -0.1463, -0.1505, -0.1505, -0.1183, -0.1055, -0.0889, -0.0764, -0.0629, -0.0399, -0.0027, 0.0, -0.1027, -0.1387, -0.0839, -0.0846, -0.1089, -0.0815, -0.0582, -0.0676, -0.057, -0.0898, -0.0671, -0.0671, -0.0962, -0.0759, -0.0733, -0.055, -0.0295, -0.0429, -0.0453, -0.0371, -0.0245, -0.0119, -0.056, -0.0486, -0.06, -0.0452, -0.0471, -0.0364, -0.0396, -0.0585, -0.0707, -0.0715, -0.0739, -0.1032, -0.1401, -0.1664, -0.1852, -0.1851, -0.1605, -0.1921, -0.1637, -0.164, -0.1323, -0.1171, -0.1341, -0.1341, -0.1376, -0.1292, -0.1238, -0.1169, -0.1185, -0.1221, -0.1025, -0.1118, -0.1126, -0.1008, -0.1085, -0.1338, -0.1223, -0.1308, -0.1263, -0.1331, -0.1492, -0.1583, -0.1457, -0.1466, -0.1637, -0.1565, -0.131, -0.1295, -0.1253, -0.1235, -0.127, -0.1319, -0.1385, -0.1585, -0.1562, -0.1702, -0.1583, -0.1591, -0.1655, -0.1655, -0.1652, -0.1763, -0.1676, -0.1589, -0.1707, -0.1693, -0.1775, -0.1707, -0.201, -0.1989, -0.212, -0.2446, -0.221, -0.2205, -0.2003, -0.1982, -0.2164, -0.2194, -0.2194, -0.2245, -0.2391, -0.2621, -0.255, -0.2466, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2018718486436974806", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-03T16:09:27+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short. I am WINNING. I will destroy you.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Confirms active short position in OPEN, still holding.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Akhiles82130535 @BullsOnX @rabois I am short. I am WINNING. I will destroy you.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @BullsOnX @rabois What’s going on with $OPEN today 🚀🚀 hope you are still shorting it 😅", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Akhiles82130535", "ret_m1d": -0.06042883740039173, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.06042883740039173, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.06895632651277761, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.06410442851366305, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "bench_c_m1d": 0.003675591113271315, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.025341152347144846, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.025341152347144846, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02049729862115146, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04126865055301587, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015927498205871027, "ret_p1w": -0.08576998974753658, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.08576998974753658, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.08952614990358487, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.1355126414131338, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.049742651665597215, "ret_p1m": -0.04873294238264281, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.04873294238264281, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.04235183050228464, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.12101906133054285, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "bench_c_p1m": 0.07228611894790005, "ret_p3m": 0.06042883740039162, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.06042883740039162, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.012442356373405294, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.03287896677565705, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09330780417604867, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.04873294238264281, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.04235183050228464, "alpha_c_stated": 0.12101906133054285, "price_path": [0.2788, 0.2788, 0.5536, 0.653, 0.8265, 0.6686, 0.5828, 0.5283, 0.4659, 0.3041, 0.2008, 0.3158, 0.499, 0.5088, 0.5166, 0.5166, 0.501, 0.3918, 0.3626, 0.3528, 0.4776, 0.3938, 0.3743, 0.4444, 0.3645, 0.3743, 0.2788, 0.2612, 0.3119, 0.193, 0.2242, 0.2398, 0.2515, 0.2222, 0.2242, 0.2242, 0.1715, 0.1365, 0.1384, 0.1365, 0.1365, 0.1832, 0.232, 0.3509, 0.193, 0.2534, 0.4211, 0.3684, 0.3197, 0.2943, 0.2281, 0.3002, 0.3002, 0.2456, 0.2632, 0.2515, 0.1715, 0.1442, 0.1326, 0.1228, 0.0877, 0.0039, -0.0604, 0.0, -0.0253, -0.0838, -0.0487, -0.037, -0.0858, -0.0721, -0.1462, -0.1335, -0.1335, -0.1559, -0.0975, -0.0936, -0.0253, -0.0682, -0.0039, -0.0292, 0.0546, 0.0565, -0.0156, -0.0312, -0.0487, 0.0097, -0.0253, -0.0097, -0.0234, 0.0273, -0.0565, -0.0351, 0.0097, 0.0838, 0.0292, 0.0019, -0.0429, 0.0156, 0.0097, -0.0058, -0.0448, -0.0643, -0.1365, -0.0877, -0.1092, -0.076, -0.076, -0.1014, -0.1131, -0.0955, -0.1598, -0.1579, -0.1501, -0.1209, -0.0604, 0.0273, 0.0312, 0.0429, 0.0624, 0.0585, 0.0175, 0.0741, 0.0507, 0.0682, 0.0877, 0.0487, 0.0604, 0.0, 0.0195, 0.0643, 0.037, -0.0234, -0.0546, -0.0819, -0.1072, -0.1287, -0.1462, -0.1657, -0.1618, -0.1423, -0.1092, -0.117, -0.117, -0.1267, -0.0741, -0.0117, -0.0175, 0.0351, 0.0546, -0.0507, -0.0351, -0.1384, -0.1598, -0.154, -0.1267, -0.1287, -0.1345, -0.1014, -0.0741, -0.1326, -0.1287, -0.1287, -0.1657, -0.1813, -0.1657, -0.1618, -0.1481, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2027299573262123012", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-27T08:27:38+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is obscenely expensive at 14x revenues and 5x book. Even if you believe in the turnaround story, 5x sales and 1.5x book would be more realistic. That would imply a present stock price of $1.50. The stock price is way ahead of any improvement in the fundamentals. Fade the hype.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: obscenely overvalued at 14x revenues/5x book; fair value ~$1.50 even on turnaround assumptions; stock well ahead of fundamentals.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "House flipping is just fundamentally an awful business.\n\nEven worse is that $OPEN is obscenely expensive at 14x revenues (include only net sales) and 5x book.\n\nEven if you believe in the turnaround story, 5x sales and 1.5x book would be more realistic. \n\nThat would imply a present stock price\nof $1.50.\n\nThe stock price is way ahead of any improvement in the fundamentals.\n\nMath ultimately prevails over fundamentals.\n\nEVERY. SINGLE. TIME.\n\nFade the hype.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 Any constructive suggestions to improve the business then?", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0018450606533337854, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0018450606533337854, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0066701714084274055, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.002945025043664895, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00482511075509362, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0047900856969986805, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0682656605813331, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0682656605813331, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.06883418356738102, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07009042988498437, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0005685229860479257, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0018247693036512747, "ret_p1w": -0.07749078789333341, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07749078789333341, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05765080260552047, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.055821100121523415, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019839985287812945, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021669687771809998, "ret_p1m": -0.1826568697453338, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1826568697453338, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10642532561060636, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1060206238533844, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07623154413472744, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0766362458919494, "ret_p3m": -0.12361624849866681, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.12361624849866681, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.22058492794481677, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.14847888490238137, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09696867944614995, "bench_c_p3m": 0.024862636403714555, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1826568697453338, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10642532561060636, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1060206238533844, "price_path": [0.2897, 0.2804, 0.3985, 0.3192, 0.3007, 0.3672, 0.2915, 0.3007, 0.2103, 0.1937, 0.2417, 0.1292, 0.1587, 0.1734, 0.1845, 0.1568, 0.1587, 0.1587, 0.1089, 0.0756, 0.0775, 0.0756, 0.0756, 0.1199, 0.1661, 0.2786, 0.1292, 0.1863, 0.345, 0.2952, 0.2491, 0.2251, 0.1624, 0.2306, 0.2306, 0.179, 0.1956, 0.1845, 0.1089, 0.083, 0.072, 0.0627, 0.0295, -0.0498, -0.1107, -0.0535, -0.0775, -0.1328, -0.0996, -0.0886, -0.1347, -0.1218, -0.1919, -0.1799, -0.1799, -0.2011, -0.1458, -0.1421, -0.0775, -0.1181, -0.0572, -0.0812, -0.0018, 0.0, -0.0683, -0.083, -0.0996, -0.0443, -0.0775, -0.0627, -0.0756, -0.0277, -0.107, -0.0867, -0.0443, 0.0258, -0.0258, -0.0517, -0.0941, -0.0387, -0.0443, -0.059, -0.0959, -0.1144, -0.1827, -0.1365, -0.1568, -0.1255, -0.1255, -0.1494, -0.1605, -0.1439, -0.2048, -0.203, -0.1956, -0.1679, -0.1107, -0.0277, -0.024, -0.0129, 0.0055, 0.0018, -0.0369, 0.0166, -0.0055, 0.0111, 0.0295, -0.0074, 0.0037, -0.0535, -0.0351, 0.0074, -0.0185, -0.0756, -0.1052, -0.131, -0.155, -0.1753, -0.1919, -0.2103, -0.2066, -0.1882, -0.1568, -0.1642, -0.1642, -0.1734, -0.1236, -0.0646, -0.0701, -0.0203, -0.0018, -0.1015, -0.0867, -0.1845, -0.2048, -0.1993, -0.1734, -0.1753, -0.1808, -0.1494, -0.1236, -0.179, -0.1753, -0.1753, -0.2103, -0.2251, -0.2103, -0.2066, -0.1937, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006835286190494014", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-01T21:09:52+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I will take the under!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Disagrees with the $400 TSLA floor call; betting TSLA goes below $400.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@CnyTeslaGuy I will take the under!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 No matter what $tsla Post for the year, it won't matter much.\nThe stock will never go below $400 again!", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "CnyTeslaGuy", "ret_m1d": 0.026593908968212343, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.026593908968212343, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.028423548353842976, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.017637361069777535, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008956547898434808, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.031045280151877908, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.031045280151877908, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.024385073043633243, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.014568708932490848, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.01647657121938706, "ret_p1w": 0.015842222305509024, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.015842222305509024, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0001128510704759833, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03536186942391506, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.051204091729424084, "ret_p1m": -0.03711737734555942, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06770470393027994, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03058732658472052, "ret_p3m": -0.12968246309669917, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.12968246309669917, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09141892029835241, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05930285557113557, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.0703796075255636, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.03711737734555942, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05503385000991534, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06770470393027994, "price_path": [-0.0114, 0.0014, -0.0058, -0.0561, -0.005, -0.0202, -0.0067, -0.0213, 0.0028, 0.0214, 0.0103, 0.0021, 0.0249, -0.0099, 0.0328, 0.0513, 0.0535, 0.0046, 0.0422, 0.0692, 0.0141, 0.0548, 0.0179, -0.0195, 0.0163, 0.0035, -0.0171, -0.0824, -0.077, -0.0665, -0.0841, -0.0778, -0.0978, -0.1072, -0.0463, -0.0426, -0.0262, -0.0262, -0.018, -0.0181, -0.0202, 0.0198, 0.0376, 0.0386, 0.0034, 0.0162, 0.0305, 0.0201, 0.0477, 0.085, 0.1183, 0.0666, 0.1034, 0.0985, 0.1156, 0.1084, 0.108, 0.108, 0.0847, 0.0492, 0.0373, 0.0266, 0.0266, 0.0, 0.031, -0.0117, -0.0152, -0.0052, 0.0158, 0.0249, 0.0208, 0.0026, 0.0011, -0.0013, -0.0013, -0.043, -0.0151, 0.0258, 0.0251, -0.0066, -0.0164, -0.0151, -0.0491, -0.0175, -0.0371, -0.0368, -0.0732, -0.0933, -0.0615, -0.0474, -0.0294, -0.0224, -0.0479, -0.0471, -0.0471, -0.0626, -0.0611, -0.0602, -0.0599, -0.0873, -0.0655, -0.0472, -0.0673, -0.0812, -0.0793, -0.1042, -0.0733, -0.0742, -0.0944, -0.0899, -0.0886, -0.0691, -0.0983, -0.107, -0.097, -0.0886, -0.1034, -0.1319, -0.16, -0.1306, -0.1256, -0.119, -0.1506, -0.174, -0.189, -0.1514, -0.1297, -0.1769, -0.1769, -0.1946, -0.2087, -0.2164, -0.211, -0.2034, -0.1955, -0.1686, -0.1053, -0.1122, -0.0855, -0.104, -0.1179, -0.1154, -0.1469, -0.141, -0.1356, -0.1416, -0.149, -0.1288, -0.1079, -0.104, -0.1112, -0.0898, -0.06, -0.0222, 0.0158, -0.0105, 0.0164, 0.0119, -0.0361, -0.0641, -0.0775, -0.0475, -0.0462, -0.0275, -0.0275, -0.0102, 0.0052, 0.0092, -0.0052, -0.0507, -0.0327, -0.0328, -0.0448, -0.1074, -0.0665, -0.0945, -0.1289, -0.0888, -0.0722, -0.0615, -0.0763, -0.0952, -0.0858, -0.0858, -0.0754, -0.1289, -0.1428, -0.1437, -0.1332, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2022464184559026598", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-14T00:13:31+00:00", "symbol": "MSTR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$MSTR has fallen from $543 to roughly $123. Down 77% from its all-time high... This guy is a desperate fraud who has NO CLUE what he's talking about... The assets don't cover the liabilities. Period.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish MSTR: leveraged Bitcoin strategy is insolvent in a 90% drawdown scenario, negative operating cash flow, $8B debt exceeds collateral value.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSTR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@saylor just went on CNBC and said that if Bitcoin drops 90%, he'll simply \"refinance the debt\" and \"roll it forward.\"\n\nThis guy is a desperate fraud who has NO CLUE what he's talking about.\n\nLet's actually look at what \"rolling it forward\" means in reality:\n\nStrategy holds 714,644 Bitcoin purchased at an average cost of $76,056 per coin. Total acquisition cost: $54.35 billion.\n\nBitcoin is trading around $68,000. Already below their cost basis.\n\nThe company carries over $8 billion in debt. 100% of its convertible notes are now out of the money.\n\nNow imagine Saylor's own scenario. \n\nBitcoin drops 90%. That takes it to roughly $6,800.\n\nStrategy's 714,644 Bitcoin would be worth approximately $4.9 billion.\n\nAgainst $8 billion in debt.\n\nThe assets don't cover the liabilities. Period.\n\nAnd he thinks banks are going to refinance that? On what collateral? On what cash flow?\n\nBecause Strategy's operating cash flow was negative $138 million in 2025. Down from negative $53 million the year before. \n\nThe trajectory is going the wrong direction.\n\nWhen asked: \"You think banks would lend to you at that point?\"\n\nSaylor just laughed it off.\n\nBut here's who's not laughing:\n\n11 state pension funds that bought MSTR as a \"regulated proxy\" for Bitcoin exposure. CalPERS. New York State. Florida. Wisconsin. New Jersey. Teachers. Firefighters. Police officers.\n\nTogether they hold 1.8 million shares. Their original investment: $577 million. Current value: $240 million.\n\nThat's $337 million in paper losses. Most funds are down 60%.\n\nCalPERS, the largest public pension fund in the country, bought 448,000 shares for $144 million. That position has been cut nearly in half.\n\nThese aren't hedge fund cowboys who can stomach a drawdown. These are retirement systems with fiduciary obligations to millions of public workers.\n\nMeanwhile $MSTR has fallen from $543 to roughly $123. Down 77% from its all-time high.\n\nSaylor says he'll buy Bitcoin \"every quarter forever\" and will never sell.\n\nBut that's not how debt works. \n\nYou don't get to choose when your creditors come calling. You don't get to \"roll forward\" $8 billion in debt when your only asset has collapsed and your operating business generates negative cash flow.\n\nThe people who say \"we'll just refinance\" are always the ones who can't.\n\nThe question isn't whether Saylor believes in Bitcoin.\n\nThe question is whether pension funds managing trillions in retirement savings should be exposed to a leveraged single-asset bet run by a man who laughs off a 90% drawdown scenario on national tv.\n\nTeachers. Firefighters. State employees. Their retirement savings are sitting inside a company that just posted a $12.4 billion loss and whose chairman's contingency plan is \"we'll figure it out.\"\n\nThat's STUPID.\n\nAnd the people who'll pay the price aren't on CNBC.\n\nThey're counting on those pensions to be there when they retire.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0404912317401791, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0404912317401791, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04210211562543653, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04210211562543653, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.026968223129582802, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.026968223129582802, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.032005930680159556, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.032005930680159556, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "ret_p1w": -0.03155356816950383, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03155356816950383, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03814357220682263, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03814357220682263, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "ret_p1m": 0.09240692903435588, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.09240692903435588, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12377544889292302, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12377544889292302, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "ret_p3m": 0.3788762003088757, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.3788762003088757, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.29344202500333827, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.29344202500333827, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.09240692903435588, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.12377544889292302, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12377544889292302, "price_path": [0.3766, 0.3251, 0.3915, 0.3382, 0.365, 0.365, 0.377, 0.3322, 0.4093, 0.4641, 0.4456, 0.3911, 0.4276, 0.4688, 0.435, 0.4246, 0.3713, 0.2597, 0.3018, 0.2464, 0.2298, 0.281, 0.2771, 0.227, 0.2335, 0.2335, 0.2342, 0.2077, 0.2094, 0.1809, 0.1809, 0.2214, 0.2802, 0.2277, 0.2577, 0.2977, 0.2227, 0.2608, 0.3444, 0.3937, 0.3283, 0.35, 0.35, 0.2453, 0.2731, 0.2511, 0.2677, 0.248, 0.2558, 0.2314, 0.1128, 0.1635, 0.0852, 0.0357, 0.0033, -0.1685, 0.0487, 0.0759, 0.0337, -0.0202, -0.0441, 0.0405, 0.0405, 0.0, -0.027, 0.0061, 0.0185, -0.0385, -0.0316, 0.0542, 0.0368, 0.0065, 0.0698, 0.0312, 0.1381, 0.0866, 0.0378, 0.0799, 0.0761, 0.0751, 0.0674, 0.0855, 0.1465, 0.1679, 0.0924, 0.0744, 0.0543, 0.0741, 0.0589, 0.0813, 0.0331, -0.0205, -0.0562, -0.0301, -0.0458, -0.0687, -0.0687, -0.0076, -0.0385, -0.0029, 0.0015, -0.0002, 0.0287, 0.0679, 0.1156, 0.1575, 0.2942, 0.3275, 0.2743, 0.394, 0.3404, 0.3291, 0.315, 0.2879, 0.2294, 0.2858, 0.3769, 0.4285, 0.4526, 0.4519, 0.3977, 0.4579, 0.5228, 0.4333, 0.3836, 0.4531, 0.3789, 0.295, 0.2795, 0.2886, 0.2812, 0.2426, 0.2426, 0.2429, 0.1984, 0.1785, 0.2364, 0.1641, 0.0576, -0.0165, 0.0054, -0.064, -0.0114, -0.0905, -0.1035, -0.0662, -0.0365, 0.0192, -0.0455, -0.0941, -0.1254, -0.1254, -0.1493, -0.193, -0.2684, -0.3368, -0.3603, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2008344963734479078", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-06T01:08:47+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is the most overvalued bubble at scale in financial market history", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "TSLA is the most overvalued bubble in financial market history; decisive bearish stance.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@GrindeOptions $TSLA is the most overvalued bubble at scale in financial market history.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "If you’re a $TSLA shareholder or supporter of the company, leave your mark on this post below. \n\nLet’s get the Tesla community fired up! 💪 https://t.co/PnZS8cJby7", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "GrindeOptions", "ret_m1d": 0.04321420533517695, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04321420533517695, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04912620404237067, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.049574175214165184, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005911998707193722, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006359969878988236, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0035799792672750463, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0035799792672750463, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0003565669860768894, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0021758547233956538, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.003223412281198157, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0014041245438793926, "ret_p1w": 0.03288992293282278, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03288992293282278, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.030056765006996278, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.006954522152161635, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0028331579258265016, "bench_c_p1w": 0.025935400780661144, "ret_p1m": -0.06224589389629398, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06224589389629398, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.054122306018374755, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05423397557226939, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.008123587877919225, "bench_c_p1m": -0.008011918324024592, "ret_p3m": -0.16715169194725987, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.16715169194725987, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.117732186431458, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.06223101141283083, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.049419505515801876, "bench_c_p3m": -0.10492068053442904, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06224589389629398, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.054122306018374755, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05423397557226939, "price_path": [0.006, -0.045, 0.0068, -0.0086, 0.0051, -0.0097, 0.0147, 0.0334, 0.0223, 0.0139, 0.037, 0.0018, 0.0449, 0.0637, 0.0659, 0.0165, 0.0545, 0.0818, 0.0261, 0.0672, 0.0299, -0.0079, 0.0283, 0.0154, -0.0055, -0.0715, -0.0661, -0.0555, -0.0732, -0.0669, -0.0871, -0.0967, -0.0351, -0.0313, -0.0147, -0.0147, -0.0064, -0.0065, -0.0086, 0.0318, 0.0498, 0.0509, 0.0153, 0.0282, 0.0427, 0.0322, 0.0601, 0.0978, 0.1315, 0.0792, 0.1164, 0.1114, 0.1288, 0.1215, 0.1211, 0.1211, 0.0975, 0.0616, 0.0496, 0.0387, 0.0387, 0.0118, 0.0432, 0.0, -0.0036, 0.0066, 0.0278, 0.037, 0.0329, 0.0144, 0.013, 0.0105, 0.0105, -0.0317, -0.0035, 0.0379, 0.0372, 0.0052, -0.0048, -0.0035, -0.0379, -0.0059, -0.0258, -0.0254, -0.0622, -0.0826, -0.0505, -0.0361, -0.0179, -0.0108, -0.0367, -0.0358, -0.0358, -0.0516, -0.05, -0.0491, -0.0488, -0.0765, -0.0545, -0.0359, -0.0563, -0.0703, -0.0685, -0.0936, -0.0624, -0.0633, -0.0837, -0.0792, -0.0779, -0.0581, -0.0877, -0.0965, -0.0864, -0.0778, -0.0928, -0.1216, -0.1501, -0.1204, -0.1153, -0.1086, -0.1405, -0.1643, -0.1794, -0.1414, -0.1194, -0.1672, -0.1672, -0.1851, -0.1993, -0.2072, -0.2017, -0.194, -0.186, -0.1588, -0.0947, -0.1018, -0.0747, -0.0934, -0.1075, -0.105, -0.1368, -0.1309, -0.1254, -0.1315, -0.139, -0.1186, -0.0973, -0.0934, -0.1007, -0.0791, -0.0489, -0.0106, 0.0278, 0.0011, 0.0284, 0.0239, -0.0248, -0.0531, -0.0666, -0.0363, -0.0349, -0.0161, -0.0161, 0.0015, 0.0171, 0.0211, 0.0065, -0.0394, -0.0213, -0.0214, -0.0335, -0.0969, -0.0555, -0.0838, -0.1186, -0.0781, -0.0613, -0.0504, -0.0654, -0.0845, -0.075, -0.075, -0.0645, -0.1186, -0.1326, -0.1336, -0.123, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2008169907951738963", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-05T13:33:10+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Any reasonable approach concludes that $TSLA is wildly overvalued", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "TSLA wildly overvalued on any reasonable valuation approach.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@stwboerse Yes, do your own math. \nAny reasonable approach concludes that $TSLA is wildly overvalued.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "My recommendation to all $TSLA shareholders: Do your own math.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "stwboerse", "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2021902304366965104", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-12T11:00:49+00:00", "symbol": "Magnificent 7", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The Mag 7 is priced for AI transformation happening NOW. But Goldman says measurable GDP impact doesn't start until 2027. That's a 2-3 year gap between expectations and reality. Markets don't wait politely when they realize they're wrong.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Rotate out of Mag 7 (overvalued on AI hype, 2-3yr expectation gap) into small caps / Russell 2000 (decade-low valuations, rotation just starting).", "resolved_tickers": ["AAPL", "MSFT", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "META", "TSLA"], "resolution_method": "basket", "resolution_reason": "Magnificent 7 = basket of the seven mega-cap US tech equities", "bench_c": "XLC", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Content & Information'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Content & Information", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I've been saying it for months: The AI hype will die.\n\nAnd I'm watching it happen in real time.\n\nLet me tell you something about market cycles after 45 years on Wall Strett:\n\nWhen everyone believes the same story, when valuations price in perfection, when \"this time is different\" becomes consensus...\n\nThat's when the trade is OVER.\n\nThe Mag 7 spent $380 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025.\n\nCFOs across America can't point to measurable returns.\n\nNo productivity gains. No labor savings. No revenue acceleration.\n\nJust massive capex and promises of transformation \"coming soon.\"\n\nI've seen this play out before.\n\nDotcom 2000. Everyone knew the internet would change everything.\n\nThey were RIGHT about the technology.\n\nThey were WRONG about the timing and the valuations.\n\nThe companies that survived took 15 years to make new highs.\n\nHere's what's happening now:\n\nThe Mag 7 has already started underperforming.\n\nSince October 2025, the S&P 493 is outperforming the Magnificent 7.\n\nSmall caps are waking up.\n\nThe Russell 2000 is finally showing signs of life after years of underperformance.\n\nThis is the rotation I predicted.\n\nAnd it's just getting started.\n\nWhy small caps now?\n\nBecause they're trading at decade-low valuations relative to Big Tech.\n\nThe P/E spread is 10+ points.\n\nBut earnings growth is only 5 points lower.\n\nYou're getting 95% of the growth at 50% of the valuation.\n\nThe Mag 7 is priced for AI transformation happening NOW.\n\nBut Goldman says measurable GDP impact doesn't start until 2027.\n\nThat's a 2-3 year gap between expectations and reality.\n\nMarkets don't wait politely when they realize they're wrong.\n\nI ran the #1 mutual fund in the country at Fidelity and worked under Peter Lynch.\n\nAnd I'm telling you: This is what a market top in a narrow leadership group looks like.\n\nNot a crash. Not a crisis.\n\nJust a slow realization that the future takes longer to arrive than the stock price assumed.\n\nMeanwhile, small and mid-caps are trading like it's 2008.\n\nExcept we're not in a financial crisis.\n\nWe're in a market where everyone is crowded into seven stocks and ignoring 2,500 others.\n\nThat doesn't last.\n\nThe AI infrastructure build is real.\n\nBut infrastructure builders get paid first.\n\nProductivity beneficiaries get paid later.\n\nMuch later.\n\nAnd the market is finally starting to figure that out.\n\n---\n\nGo watch the full interview here \nhttps://t.co/dGIJRpD0c5", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02289144731209967, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02289144731209967, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.007200175355270937, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.004573212835833434, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.015691271956828734, "bench_c_m1d": 0.018318234476266237, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010765270639164421, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010765270639164421, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.011469769742283515, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010241890598786758, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0007044991031190939, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0005233800403776634, "ret_p1w": -0.0027927740041518673, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0027927740041518673, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.007504505796605745, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.007154252028314847, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.004711731792453877, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004361478024162979, "ret_p1m": -0.027387242181782772, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.027387242181782772, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.00047253601718534946, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.025729883210078946, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.02785977819896812, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0016573589717038262, "ret_p3m": 0.12568352954921877, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.12568352954921877, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.0391892871316358, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.11181640167801662, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08649424241758297, "bench_c_p3m": 0.013867127871202145, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.12568352954921877, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0391892871316358, "alpha_c_stated": -0.11181640167801662, "price_path": [0.0392, 0.019, 0.0245, 0.0072, 0.0135, 0.0454, 0.0537, 0.0588, 0.0588, 0.0668, 0.0659, 0.0718, 0.0695, 0.0759, 0.0797, 0.0724, 0.0739, 0.074, 0.0675, 0.0592, 0.0599, 0.0682, 0.0465, 0.0673, 0.0747, 0.0801, 0.0902, 0.0915, 0.0915, 0.088, 0.0796, 0.0791, 0.0718, 0.0718, 0.0611, 0.0703, 0.0676, 0.0705, 0.0707, 0.078, 0.0776, 0.0726, 0.0554, 0.0571, 0.0551, 0.0551, 0.0228, 0.0329, 0.0539, 0.0657, 0.0706, 0.0811, 0.0815, 0.0765, 0.073, 0.0722, 0.0554, 0.038, 0.0177, 0.022, 0.0333, 0.0289, 0.0229, 0.0, -0.0108, -0.0108, -0.0087, -0.0009, -0.0028, 0.0122, -0.0034, 0.0083, 0.024, 0.0087, -0.0057, -0.0014, -0.0063, 0.0087, 0.0084, -0.0096, 0.0007, 0.0041, 0.0075, -0.0112, -0.0274, -0.013, -0.0082, -0.0235, -0.0338, -0.0537, -0.0385, -0.0516, -0.0441, -0.0743, -0.0998, -0.1012, -0.061, -0.0482, -0.0548, -0.0548, -0.0521, -0.0533, -0.0287, -0.0131, -0.006, 0.0038, 0.0343, 0.0598, 0.0614, 0.0784, 0.0683, 0.0613, 0.0791, 0.0623, 0.0841, 0.091, 0.0878, 0.0837, 0.079, 0.0905, 0.0909, 0.0938, 0.1157, 0.1234, 0.1339, 0.1312, 0.1257, 0.1481, 0.1537, 0.139, 0.1317, 0.1166, 0.1316, 0.1323, 0.1307, 0.1307, 0.1342, 0.1447, 0.1548, 0.1507, 0.1389, 0.1277, 0.1135, 0.1254, 0.0846, 0.084, 0.07, 0.0462, 0.0579, 0.0568, 0.0858, 0.0825, 0.0527, 0.0691, 0.0691, 0.0445, 0.0297, 0.0218, -0.0043, 0.0095, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2047103640259731490", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-23T00:01:55+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Stay short $TSLA", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Maintains short TSLA following what author calls a disastrous earnings call.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@DougKass nails it. \nThe $TSLA call was an unmitigated disaster. Stay short $TSLA.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$TSLA traded +$12 (to $404) from the close (in the after market) following its EPS release.\nIt is now -$20  (at $384) from the peak after market print.\nAt 5PM, on @CNBCFastMoney panelists mostly praised the company (and endorsed the stock)... even though they didnt have time to", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03689930562955901, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03689930562955901, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03300344593924298, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.026792256588431984, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003895859690316028, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010107049041127025, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0069035282132037246, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0069035282132037246, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0008457810240278807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0011651778525969547, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007749309237231605, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00806870606580068, "ret_p1w": 0.021165588237912036, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.021165588237912036, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0067539132350464826, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.015984675397364256, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014411675002865554, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00518091284054778, "ret_p1m": 0.13991760776550355, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1276872252746062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.052494860901207696, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012230382490897362, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1276872252746062, "price_path": [0.1645, 0.153, 0.1545, 0.1146, 0.1517, 0.1287, 0.1291, 0.0864, 0.0629, 0.1, 0.1167, 0.1378, 0.146, 0.116, 0.117, 0.117, 0.0988, 0.1006, 0.1017, 0.1019, 0.0699, 0.0954, 0.1169, 0.0933, 0.077, 0.0792, 0.0501, 0.0862, 0.0852, 0.0616, 0.0668, 0.0683, 0.0912, 0.057, 0.0468, 0.0584, 0.0684, 0.051, 0.0176, -0.0154, 0.0191, 0.0249, 0.0327, -0.0043, -0.0318, -0.0493, -0.0053, 0.0202, -0.0351, -0.0351, -0.0559, -0.0724, -0.0815, -0.0752, -0.0663, -0.057, -0.0255, 0.0488, 0.0406, 0.072, 0.0503, 0.034, 0.0369, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0132, 0.0062, -0.0025, 0.0212, 0.0458, 0.0503, 0.0419, 0.0669, 0.1019, 0.1462, 0.1907, 0.1598, 0.1915, 0.1862, 0.1298, 0.0971, 0.0813, 0.1165, 0.1181, 0.1399, 0.1399, 0.1602, 0.1783, 0.183, 0.1661, 0.1128, 0.1338, 0.1337, 0.1197, 0.0462, 0.0943, 0.0614, 0.0211, 0.068, 0.0875, 0.1002, 0.0828, 0.0606, 0.0716, 0.0716, 0.0838, 0.0211, 0.0048, 0.0037, 0.016, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2005807239345455120", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-30T01:04:46+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I'll take the under.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Expects Tesla Q4 2025 deliveries to come in below the 422,850-vehicle analyst consensus; implied bearish on the print.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@SawyerMerritt I’ll  take the under.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "NEWS: For the first time, Tesla has officially added their company compiled delivery consensus to their investor relations website.\n\nAnalysts expect Tesla to deliver 422,850 vehicles in Q4 2025, and deploy 13.4GWh of energy storage this quarter.\n\nThis is a great move by Tesla. https://t.co/RLh5Osi7pD", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "SawyerMerritt", "ret_m1d": 0.011464960624580467, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.011464960624580467, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010242253825026637, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.007393843971804648, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004071116652775819, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010364613980130777, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010364613980130777, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0029557610112932453, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0024716664837826086, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007892947496348168, "ret_p1w": -0.04724600393183376, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04724600393183376, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05423284889279023, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05314498316467742, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00589897923284366, "ret_p1m": -0.050546842397991454, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.050546842397991454, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06278828992564967, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06226168437993651, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011714841981945057, "ret_p3m": -0.20377177474195074, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20377177474195074, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12926302332297668, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08356815590370792, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.12020361883824282, "ret_p6m": -0.1736240898887511, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1736240898887511, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2465876221448997, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13350205757998646, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": -0.040122032308764655, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.20377177474195074, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.12926302332297668, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08356815590370792, "price_path": [-0.0406, -0.0541, -0.0026, -0.047, -0.0346, -0.0416, -0.0901, -0.0408, -0.0554, -0.0424, -0.0565, -0.0333, -0.0154, -0.026, -0.034, -0.012, -0.0456, -0.0044, 0.0135, 0.0156, -0.0315, 0.0047, 0.0307, -0.0224, 0.0168, -0.0187, -0.0548, -0.0202, -0.0326, -0.0524, -0.1154, -0.1102, -0.1001, -0.117, -0.111, -0.1303, -0.1394, -0.0807, -0.0771, -0.0613, -0.0613, -0.0534, -0.0535, -0.0554, -0.0169, 0.0002, 0.0013, -0.0327, -0.0204, -0.0066, -0.0166, 0.01, 0.0459, 0.078, 0.0282, 0.0637, 0.0589, 0.0755, 0.0685, 0.0682, 0.0682, 0.0457, 0.0115, 0.0, -0.0104, -0.0104, -0.036, -0.0061, -0.0472, -0.0507, -0.041, -0.0207, -0.012, -0.0159, -0.0335, -0.0349, -0.0373, -0.0373, -0.0774, -0.0506, -0.0112, -0.0118, -0.0423, -0.0518, -0.0505, -0.0833, -0.0529, -0.0718, -0.0715, -0.1066, -0.1259, -0.0953, -0.0817, -0.0643, -0.0576, -0.0822, -0.0814, -0.0814, -0.0964, -0.0949, -0.094, -0.0938, -0.1202, -0.0991, -0.0815, -0.1009, -0.1143, -0.1125, -0.1364, -0.1067, -0.1076, -0.127, -0.1227, -0.1214, -0.1026, -0.1308, -0.1391, -0.1295, -0.1214, -0.1357, -0.1631, -0.1903, -0.1619, -0.1571, -0.1507, -0.1812, -0.2038, -0.2182, -0.1819, -0.161, -0.2065, -0.2065, -0.2236, -0.2372, -0.2447, -0.2394, -0.2321, -0.2245, -0.1986, -0.1375, -0.1442, -0.1184, -0.1363, -0.1497, -0.1473, -0.1776, -0.1719, -0.1667, -0.1725, -0.1796, -0.1602, -0.14, -0.1363, -0.1432, -0.1226, -0.0938, -0.0574, -0.0208, -0.0462, -0.0202, -0.0245, -0.0708, -0.0978, -0.1107, -0.0818, -0.0805, -0.0625, -0.0625, -0.0459, -0.031, -0.0271, -0.041, -0.0848, -0.0675, -0.0676, -0.0792, -0.1396, -0.1001, -0.1271, -0.1603, -0.1216, -0.1056, -0.0952, -0.1095, -0.1277, -0.1187, -0.1187, -0.1087, -0.1602, -0.1736]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006058050071715846", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-30T17:41:24+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the $OPEN stock price already excessively reflects any potential improvement that can reasonably be expected in the next 3 years", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "OPEN is overvalued — current price already bakes in all plausible 3-year upside, implying downside from here.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@InversorNovato_ @VolaarRide @LloydReeves13B @Anderson_2155 @nejatian And the $OPEN stock price already excessively reflects any potential improvement that can reasonably be expected in the next 3 years.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @VolaarRide @LloydReeves13B @Anderson_2155 @nejatian Anyone investing here based on the current fundamentals, I don’t think knows what they’re doing.\n\nFirst, there need to be changes in management and in the business.\n\nThen that will be reflected in the company’s balance sheet.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "InversorNovato_", "ret_m1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.002935074714031427, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0004979560193262289, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": -0.002210323933803826, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.005696485054359934, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007374191673935826, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009086559588413423, "ret_p1w": 0.18664377521766307, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18664377521766307, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1796569302567066, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.18713496888487047, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0004911936672074013, "ret_p1m": -0.01369861671503625, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01369861671503625, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02594006424269446, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.016891042571478443, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0031924258564421937, "ret_p3m": -0.17808218059586356, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17808218059586356, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1035734291768895, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1672500425829061, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01083213801295746, "ret_p6m": -0.2671232708937953, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2671232708937953, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3400868031499439, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3771875656046678, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11006429471087253, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.3716, 0.3887, 0.589, 0.5908, 0.4538, 0.3938, 0.2962, 0.2449, 0.3082, 0.2637, 0.2175, 0.226, 0.262, 0.1918, 0.1678, 0.2038, 0.3647, 0.3973, 0.3647, 0.3099, 0.2568, 0.3305, 0.2997, 0.1849, 0.238, 0.1233, 0.1233, 0.3647, 0.4521, 0.6045, 0.4658, 0.3904, 0.3425, 0.2877, 0.1455, 0.0548, 0.1558, 0.3168, 0.3253, 0.3322, 0.3322, 0.3185, 0.2226, 0.1969, 0.1884, 0.2979, 0.2243, 0.2072, 0.2688, 0.1986, 0.2072, 0.1233, 0.1079, 0.1524, 0.0479, 0.0753, 0.089, 0.0993, 0.0736, 0.0753, 0.0753, 0.0291, -0.0017, 0.0, -0.0017, -0.0017, 0.0394, 0.0822, 0.1866, 0.0479, 0.101, 0.2483, 0.2021, 0.1592, 0.137, 0.0788, 0.1421, 0.1421, 0.0942, 0.1096, 0.0993, 0.0291, 0.0051, -0.0051, -0.0137, -0.0445, -0.1182, -0.1747, -0.1216, -0.1438, -0.1952, -0.1644, -0.1541, -0.1969, -0.1849, -0.25, -0.2389, -0.2389, -0.2586, -0.2072, -0.2038, -0.1438, -0.1815, -0.125, -0.1473, -0.0736, -0.0719, -0.1353, -0.149, -0.1644, -0.113, -0.1438, -0.1301, -0.1421, -0.0976, -0.1712, -0.1524, -0.113, -0.0479, -0.0959, -0.1199, -0.1592, -0.1079, -0.113, -0.1267, -0.161, -0.1781, -0.2414, -0.1986, -0.2175, -0.1884, -0.1884, -0.2106, -0.2209, -0.2055, -0.262, -0.2603, -0.2534, -0.2277, -0.1747, -0.0976, -0.0942, -0.0839, -0.0668, -0.0702, -0.1062, -0.0565, -0.0771, -0.0616, -0.0445, -0.0788, -0.0685, -0.1216, -0.1045, -0.0651, -0.089, -0.1421, -0.1695, -0.1935, -0.2158, -0.2346, -0.25, -0.2671, -0.2637, -0.2466, -0.2175, -0.2243, -0.2243, -0.2329, -0.1866, -0.1318, -0.137, -0.0908, -0.0736, -0.1661, -0.1524, -0.2432, -0.262, -0.2568, -0.2329, -0.2346, -0.2397, -0.2106, -0.1866, -0.238, -0.2346, -0.2346, -0.2671, -0.2808, -0.2671]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2033975455003324659", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-17T18:35:12+00:00", "symbol": "uranium", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "This is why we're bullish on uranium. Uranium spot prices are around $87 per pound. $200 per pound by 2027 or 2028 is entirely achievable given the supply-demand math.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bullish uranium to $200/lb by 2027-28 on 30k-ton annual deficit, depleted utility inventories, Kazakhstan redirecting supply, and Russian enrichment risk.", "resolved_tickers": ["URA"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "URA is the primary uranium ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Everyone's focused on oil right now. \n\nAnd I get it. Brent above $100, the Strait of Hormuz shut down, tankers stranded.\n\nBut there's an energy crisis hiding in plain sight that could be even MORE consequential:\n\nUranium.\n\nHere are the numbers you should know:\n\nGlobal uranium demand is roughly 90,000 tons per year. Global production is 60,000 tons. That's a 30,000-ton annual DEFICIT.\n\nSo how has the market survived so far? \n\nUtilities have been burning through their inventories. \n\nAfter Fukushima, Japan shut its reactors. Sweden pulled back. Germany closed its fleet entirely. Those utilities had 12 to 15 years of uranium stockpiled.\n\nToday, the average inventory level is just TWO YEARS.\n\nThe cushion is gone.\n\nAnd demand is about to explode. \n\nThere are roughly 200 new reactors planned globally by 2040. Each reactor consumes about 160 tons of raw uranium per year. That's 32,000 tons of additional annual demand.\n\nHalf of one year's current production. Just from new reactors.\n\nAnd where does the supply come from?\n\nWell... it doesn't.\n\nKazakhstan produces 45% of the world's uranium. Starting in 2028, Kazakhstan plans to dedicate 100% of its supply to China and Russia. Already 80% goes to those two countries. \n\nBut that remaining 20% disappearing from the open market will tighten an already desperate situation.\n\nThere aren't enough new mine projects to fill the gap. Mining is hard. Permitting takes years. And the world hasn't invested seriously in new uranium production for over a decade.\n\nBut here's the part that's REALLY scary:\n\nEnriched uranium.\n\nRaw uranium is useless for a reactor. It has to be enriched. And 60% of the world's enrichment capacity sits in Russia.\n\nIf Putin decided to embargo enriched uranium exports, it would be devastating for Western utilities. And strategically, it would cost Russia almost nothing. \n\nRussia's enrichment business generates roughly $6 billion a year. That's what Russia earns from ONE WEEK of oil sales.\n\nWhy Putin hasn't pulled this lever yet is a mystery. But the vulnerability is real and every Western utility executive knows it.\n\nThis is why we're bullish on uranium.\n\nUranium spot prices are around $87 per pound. $200 per pound by 2027 or 2028 is entirely achievable given the supply-demand math.\n\nThe oil trade gets the headlines. But people overlook uranium.\n\nA 30,000-ton annual deficit. Utility inventories at two years. Kazakhstan redirecting supply to China. Russia controlling 60% of enrichment. And 200 new reactors coming online.\n\nTHE MATH DOESN'T LIE\n\n---\n\nThis is just 2 minutes from a 7 HOUR conference where 15 elite investors share:\n\n- Long- and short-term stock picks\n- Real, actionable market insights\n- How to navigate this volatile market\n\nGet the full replay with Renaud Saleur + all the other replays:\nhttps://t.co/talnERiTN2", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.011282654189616603, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.011282654189616603, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.008659010810460499, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008659010810460499, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0026236433791561042, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0026236433791561042, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.028701519196376535, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.028701519196376535, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.014747874681119377, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.014747874681119377, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.013953644515257158, "bench_c_p1d": -0.013953644515257158, "ret_p1w": -0.046120384203136355, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.046120384203136355, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.022527169123105262, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.022527169123105262, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.023593215080031094, "bench_c_p1w": -0.023593215080031094, "ret_p1m": 0.08551068202059642, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08551068202059642, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0392046844497671, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0392046844497671, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.046305997570829316, "bench_c_p1m": 0.046305997570829316, "ret_p3m": -0.0989707037746399, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0989707037746399, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.20777643835911142, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.20777643835911142, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.10880573458447151, "bench_c_p3m": 0.10880573458447151, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1695, -0.133, -0.1276, -0.1204, -0.1204, -0.1204, -0.1332, -0.1359, -0.1526, -0.1542, -0.1542, -0.0883, -0.0374, -0.0228, -0.0137, -0.02, -0.0042, 0.0245, 0.0049, 0.041, 0.0447, 0.0768, 0.0768, 0.0713, 0.1114, 0.1196, 0.1283, 0.0873, 0.1451, 0.2235, 0.1744, 0.0885, 0.0544, 0.114, 0.037, -0.0279, 0.0325, 0.0867, 0.059, 0.0631, 0.0243, 0.0275, 0.0275, 0.0158, 0.0489, 0.0673, 0.076, 0.0578, 0.0877, 0.0924, 0.0861, 0.0756, 0.1174, 0.0293, 0.0445, -0.0091, -0.0344, 0.0109, 0.0354, 0.0166, 0.0049, -0.0243, -0.0113, 0.0, -0.0287, -0.0445, -0.0808, -0.0469, -0.0461, -0.0311, -0.0756, -0.077, -0.1035, -0.0414, -0.0249, -0.0321, -0.0321, -0.0378, -0.0509, 0.0174, 0.0081, 0.0087, 0.0329, 0.0459, 0.0855, 0.094, 0.1057, 0.1095, 0.0637, 0.1427, 0.1178, 0.0948, 0.1223, 0.0734, 0.0469, 0.1168, 0.1053, 0.0841, 0.0728, 0.1532, 0.1136, 0.0922, 0.1328, 0.0758, 0.0552, 0.0392, -0.0117, -0.0364, -0.0657, -0.0491, -0.0329, -0.0309, -0.0309, 0.0067, -0.0071, 0.0046, 0.0048, 0.0004, 0.0574, -0.0026, -0.0048, -0.1031, -0.0911, -0.1267, -0.1617, -0.1126, -0.099, -0.0487, -0.0525, -0.0677, -0.0542, -0.0542, -0.0736, -0.0978, -0.1148, -0.1306, -0.1372, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2031383923612099034", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-10T14:57:23+00:00", "symbol": "BLK", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "BlackRock stock dropped 7%... When the WORLD'S LARGEST ASSET MANAGER starts blocking investors from getting their money back, that's not 'noise'. That's an alarm. Get out before the exit gets more crowded.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish on private credit sector and major alt-asset managers (BLK, KKR, APO, OWL, BX); redemption gates, rising defaults, and $162B maturity wall signal systemic unwind ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["BLK"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "We're watching a financial crisis unfold in real time.\n\nThe last time funds started blocking investors from getting their money back, Bear Stearns collapsed six months later.\n\nIn 2007, BNP Paribas froze €1.6 billion in funds. \n\nBear Stearns declared 2 funds \"essentially worthless\" and gated a third. \n\nEveryone said it was \"contained.\" \n\n6 months later the entire financial system nearly went under.\n\nI'm not saying we're there YET...\n\nBut I am saying the pattern is rhyming.\n\nBlackRock just capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund after investors demanded 9.3% of their shares back - nearly DOUBLE the fund's 5% quarterly limit.\n\nInvestors wanted $1.2 billion out. BlackRock gave them $620 million and said no to the rest.\n\nBlackRock stock dropped 7%. KKR, Ares, Apollo, Blue Owl - all down 5-6% on the same day. The financial sector ETF is off 9% in a month.\n\nThis is the same BlackRock that just slashed a $25 million private credit loan from 100 to ZERO in 3 months. Full value one quarter. Worthless the next. \n\nAnd they'd already done the exact same thing months earlier with Renovo Home Partners.\n\nBut this isn't just a BlackRock problem.\n\nLook at the dominoes:\n\nLast summer, Tricolor and First Brands went unexpectedly bankrupt. $10-15 billion in combined liabilities. Write-offs hit JPMorgan, UBS, and Jefferies.\n\nThen a UK lender called Market Financial Solutions collapsed with a £2.4 billion loan book. \n\nFraud allegations. Double-pledged collateral. Barclays exposed for £500 million. Apollo, Elliott, Santander - all caught in the wreckage.\n\nThen Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions. Stock cut in HALF.\n\nThen Blackstone's $82 billion flagship fund got hit with $3.8 billion in redemption requests. They had to pump in $400 million of their own money just to meet demands.\n\nNow BlackRock is literally blocking the exits.\n\nEven Apollo's own CEO warned a shakeout is coming.\n\nWhen EVERYONE at the top is waving red flags - pay attention.\n\nUBS raised its worst-case default forecast to 15%. Defaults sit at 3-5% today. The trajectory is ugly.\n\nHere's the structural problem:\n\nAfter 2008, regulations pushed risky lending OUT of banks and INTO private credit. \n\nThe sector ballooned to $3 trillion. But these funds make 5-7 year loans while promising investors quarterly liquidity.\n\nThat works until everyone wants out at once. Which is exactly what's happening.\n\n40% of sponsor-backed loans are tied to the software industry - the same sector AI is threatening to destroy. \n\nThe Fed pumped 40% more money into the system after Covid and kept rates at zero. \n\nThat easy money funded garbage underwriting. And now there's a $162 billion maturity wall hitting THIS YEAR.\n\nI've been warning about private credit for weeks. The story is always the same:\n\nOpaque valuations. Illiquid assets. Limited transparency. And the false promise of steady returns with no volatility.\n\nThe whole sales pitch was equity-like returns with bond-like stability. But you can't eliminate volatility - you can only HIDE it... \n\nUntil you can't.\n\nWhen the WORLD'S LARGEST ASSET MANAGER starts blocking investors from getting their money back, that's not \"noise\".\n\nThat's an alarm.\n\nGet out before the exit gets more crowded.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.010016932931897204, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.010016932931897204, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.011626535164246277, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015410452484145298, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0016096022323490722, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005393519552248094, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.016736299994168924, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.016736299994168924, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.015481165445503153, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.008346372150392245, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012551345486657706, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008389927843776679, "ret_p1w": 0.0037731879234383925, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0037731879234383925, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.013209440235927739, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.013761164320189812, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.009436252312489346, "bench_c_p1w": -0.009987976396751419, "ret_p1m": 0.03533327457852775, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.03533327457852775, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.034334657926719636, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.007303206270041995, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0009986166518081152, "bench_c_p1m": 0.028030068308485756, "ret_p3m": 0.034992547466871526, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.034992547466871526, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.05713108455471683, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.015124041439269487, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09212363202158835, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05011658890614101, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.03533327457852775, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.034334657926719636, "alpha_c_stated": -0.007303206270041995, "price_path": [0.1327, 0.1196, 0.1125, 0.0981, 0.0948, 0.0948, 0.0899, 0.1187, 0.117, 0.1195, 0.1195, 0.1186, 0.1189, 0.1137, 0.1003, 0.1003, 0.1155, 0.1511, 0.1434, 0.1052, 0.1184, 0.1155, 0.1198, 0.1201, 0.1224, 0.1891, 0.1958, 0.1958, 0.1412, 0.1595, 0.1717, 0.1616, 0.153, 0.1377, 0.1531, 0.1594, 0.1503, 0.151, 0.1001, 0.1063, 0.0844, 0.086, 0.1102, 0.1183, 0.1132, 0.0852, 0.1015, 0.1015, 0.1027, 0.1229, 0.1116, 0.1243, 0.101, 0.1113, 0.1244, 0.1208, 0.093, 0.0982, 0.0821, 0.0786, 0.064, -0.0123, -0.01, 0.0, -0.0167, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0249, 0.0038, 0.001, 0.0023, -0.0098, 0.0075, 0.009, 0.0145, 0.0011, -0.0346, -0.0344, -0.0058, -0.0103, -0.0008, -0.0008, -0.0082, -0.0092, 0.0353, 0.0354, 0.033, 0.0582, 0.0901, 0.084, 0.0595, 0.0876, 0.0838, 0.078, 0.0983, 0.089, 0.0802, 0.0925, 0.0852, 0.0745, 0.1016, 0.0975, 0.0878, 0.0843, 0.1098, 0.1038, 0.1214, 0.1178, 0.1294, 0.131, 0.1413, 0.1184, 0.1225, 0.0713, 0.0871, 0.0996, 0.1092, 0.1092, 0.1138, 0.1065, 0.0818, 0.0822, 0.0552, 0.0533, 0.0243, 0.0571, 0.035, 0.0341, 0.052, 0.0507, 0.0568, 0.0728, 0.0841, 0.0939, 0.0992, 0.0916, 0.0916, 0.0934, 0.0555, 0.0215, 0.0104, 0.0029, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2031383923612099034", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-10T14:57:23+00:00", "symbol": "OWL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions. Stock cut in HALF.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Bearish on private credit sector and major alt-asset managers (BLK, KKR, APO, OWL, BX); redemption gates, rising defaults, and $162B maturity wall signal systemic unwind ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["OWL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "We're watching a financial crisis unfold in real time.\n\nThe last time funds started blocking investors from getting their money back, Bear Stearns collapsed six months later.\n\nIn 2007, BNP Paribas froze €1.6 billion in funds. \n\nBear Stearns declared 2 funds \"essentially worthless\" and gated a third. \n\nEveryone said it was \"contained.\" \n\n6 months later the entire financial system nearly went under.\n\nI'm not saying we're there YET...\n\nBut I am saying the pattern is rhyming.\n\nBlackRock just capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund after investors demanded 9.3% of their shares back - nearly DOUBLE the fund's 5% quarterly limit.\n\nInvestors wanted $1.2 billion out. BlackRock gave them $620 million and said no to the rest.\n\nBlackRock stock dropped 7%. KKR, Ares, Apollo, Blue Owl - all down 5-6% on the same day. The financial sector ETF is off 9% in a month.\n\nThis is the same BlackRock that just slashed a $25 million private credit loan from 100 to ZERO in 3 months. Full value one quarter. Worthless the next. \n\nAnd they'd already done the exact same thing months earlier with Renovo Home Partners.\n\nBut this isn't just a BlackRock problem.\n\nLook at the dominoes:\n\nLast summer, Tricolor and First Brands went unexpectedly bankrupt. $10-15 billion in combined liabilities. Write-offs hit JPMorgan, UBS, and Jefferies.\n\nThen a UK lender called Market Financial Solutions collapsed with a £2.4 billion loan book. \n\nFraud allegations. Double-pledged collateral. Barclays exposed for £500 million. Apollo, Elliott, Santander - all caught in the wreckage.\n\nThen Blue Owl permanently halted redemptions. Stock cut in HALF.\n\nThen Blackstone's $82 billion flagship fund got hit with $3.8 billion in redemption requests. They had to pump in $400 million of their own money just to meet demands.\n\nNow BlackRock is literally blocking the exits.\n\nEven Apollo's own CEO warned a shakeout is coming.\n\nWhen EVERYONE at the top is waving red flags - pay attention.\n\nUBS raised its worst-case default forecast to 15%. Defaults sit at 3-5% today. The trajectory is ugly.\n\nHere's the structural problem:\n\nAfter 2008, regulations pushed risky lending OUT of banks and INTO private credit. \n\nThe sector ballooned to $3 trillion. But these funds make 5-7 year loans while promising investors quarterly liquidity.\n\nThat works until everyone wants out at once. Which is exactly what's happening.\n\n40% of sponsor-backed loans are tied to the software industry - the same sector AI is threatening to destroy. \n\nThe Fed pumped 40% more money into the system after Covid and kept rates at zero. \n\nThat easy money funded garbage underwriting. And now there's a $162 billion maturity wall hitting THIS YEAR.\n\nI've been warning about private credit for weeks. The story is always the same:\n\nOpaque valuations. Illiquid assets. Limited transparency. And the false promise of steady returns with no volatility.\n\nThe whole sales pitch was equity-like returns with bond-like stability. But you can't eliminate volatility - you can only HIDE it... \n\nUntil you can't.\n\nWhen the WORLD'S LARGEST ASSET MANAGER starts blocking investors from getting their money back, that's not \"noise\".\n\nThat's an alarm.\n\nGet out before the exit gets more crowded.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03699793011934327, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03699793011934327, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0353883278869942, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.031604410567095176, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0016096022323490722, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005393519552248094, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.046511642304811085, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.046511642304811085, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.045256507756145314, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.038121714461034406, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0012551345486657706, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008389927843776679, "ret_p1w": -0.032769636522352874, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.032769636522352874, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.023333384209863528, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.022781660125601455, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.009436252312489346, "bench_c_p1w": -0.009987976396751419, "ret_p1m": -0.1205075025434974, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1205075025434974, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.12150611919530552, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.14853757085198316, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0009986166518081152, "bench_c_p1m": 0.028030068308485756, "ret_p3m": 0.06032835365035738, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.06032835365035738, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.03179527837123097, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.010211764744216367, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09212363202158835, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05011658890614101, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1205075025434974, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.12150611919530552, "alpha_c_stated": 0.14853757085198316, "price_path": [0.6699, 0.6222, 0.616, 0.6408, 0.5952, 0.6046, 0.5952, 0.646, 0.6253, 0.6025, 0.6025, 0.5579, 0.5807, 0.5538, 0.5486, 0.5486, 0.5869, 0.645, 0.6626, 0.6149, 0.6357, 0.6305, 0.6357, 0.5859, 0.617, 0.6367, 0.6512, 0.6512, 0.5911, 0.6336, 0.6263, 0.5693, 0.5144, 0.5061, 0.503, 0.4501, 0.4138, 0.391, 0.2553, 0.2501, 0.2055, 0.2978, 0.3102, 0.3444, 0.3071, 0.2946, 0.2749, 0.2749, 0.2521, 0.276, 0.2003, 0.1427, 0.1036, 0.1342, 0.1998, 0.186, 0.1152, 0.129, 0.0856, 0.093, 0.1015, 0.0455, 0.037, 0.0, -0.0465, -0.0899, -0.0751, -0.074, -0.0328, -0.037, -0.0359, -0.0359, -0.0391, -0.0529, -0.0455, -0.0465, -0.0655, -0.0412, -0.0349, -0.0793, -0.0941, -0.0941, -0.1068, -0.1047, -0.1205, -0.1247, -0.13, -0.1068, -0.0307, 0.0486, 0.0201, 0.0412, 0.0455, 0.0433, 0.0486, -0.0042, -0.0296, -0.0571, -0.0634, -0.0613, 0.0307, 0.055, 0.0698, 0.1364, 0.1142, 0.0941, 0.1163, 0.0655, 0.0571, 0.0571, 0.0614, 0.0235, 0.0268, 0.0203, 0.0528, 0.1036, 0.0885, 0.0885, 0.0928, 0.096, 0.0744, 0.1123, 0.1328, 0.0895, 0.0484, 0.1025, 0.0603, 0.0192, 0.0376, 0.0246, 0.0517, 0.0473, 0.0398, 0.0647, 0.0268, 0.0311, 0.0311, -0.0013, -0.036, -0.0836, -0.0825, -0.0728, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2036222730912022544", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-23T23:25:04+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Every shakeout over the past two years has been a buying opportunity. The structural case (debasement, central bank accumulation, collapsing confidence in sovereign debt) hasn't weakened. It's accelerated. The worse private credit gets, the more they'll have to print. And the more they print, the HIGHER gold goes.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Long gold: every pullback has been a buying opportunity; structural case (debasement, CB accumulation, sovereign debt collapse) accelerating as private credit unwinds forces more money printing.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Private credit returns 11.5% on loans that yield 9.5%.\n\nNobody asks how.\n\nI'll tell you how:\n\nLeverage.\n\nThey take a portfolio of loans yielding 9.5%, lever it 2x, and the gross return doubles to 19%. Subtract financing costs and fees, hand the client 11.5%, and show them a chart with a line so smooth it would make Madoff jealous.\n\nThat's the product Wall Street has been selling to pensions, endowments, insurance companies, and now your 401(k).\n\nThey even gave it a nice name. \"Private credit.\" \n\nThere's a better name for it: volatility laundering.\n\nThe returns aren't smooth because the risk is low. They're smooth because nobody is marking anything to market. The same people making the loans are the ones deciding what they're worth.\n\nWhen everything's going up, that's a feature. When it turns? It's a trapdoor.\n\nAnd we're watching the trapdoor open right now.\n\nFunds are gating redemptions across the industry. Loans are going from 100 cents on the dollar to zero in a single quarter. The biggest asset managers on earth are telling investors: \"Sorry, you can't have your money back.\"\n\nAnd none of this should surprise anyone who's been paying attention. Every cycle produces the SAME SCHEME wearing a different outfit.\n\nJunk bonds in the 80s. Mortgage-backed securities in 2007. Both sold the identical promise - equity-like returns with bond-like stability. Both ended the same way.\n\nPrivate credit is the 2020s version. Bigger numbers. Fancier packaging. Same math.\n\nThe leverage is the tell. Any time someone shows you returns that look too good for the underlying asset, there's leverage hiding somewhere in the structure. And leverage doesn't create returns...\n\nIt amplifies outcomes - in both directions.\n\nWhat pisses me off is that the people running this know exactly what they're doing. \n\nThe risk disclosures are 400 pages long. The gates are buried in footnotes. It's not technically illegal. But doing something because you can get away with it - not because it's right - is a special kind of rotten.\n\nAfter 2008, NOBODY went to jail. Banks paid fines that amounted to rounding errors on their balance sheets. The message was clear: heads you win, tails the taxpayer covers it.\n\nSo of course they did it again. Why wouldn't they?\n\nAnd here's where the realist in me takes over from the idealist:\n\nThey're not going to let this blow up cleanly. They NEVER do...\n\nThe playbook is extend, pretend, and print. Special vehicles. Special accommodations. More liquidity injected into a system that's already drowning in it.\n\nEvery time they paper over a crisis, they confirm the only trade that matters.\n\nGold pulled back hard this week - from $5,000 to around $4,575. Every shakeout over the past two years has been a buying opportunity. \n\nThe structural case (debasement, central bank accumulation, collapsing confidence in sovereign debt) hasn't weakened. It's accelerated.\n\nThe worse private credit gets, the more they'll have to print. And the more they print, the HIGHER gold goes.\n\nIt's not complicated. It's just math that most people don't want to accept.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.00022269155173648691, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.00022269155173648691, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0035908121850165564, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0035908121850165564, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0033681206332800695, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0033681206332800695, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.030089336389747867, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.030089336389747867, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.024516648145699316, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.024516648145699316, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0055726882440485515, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0055726882440485515, "ret_p1w": 0.06473165403715853, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06473165403715853, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06907961372538629, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.06907961372538629, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.004347959688227765, "bench_c_p1w": -0.004347959688227765, "ret_p1m": 0.0770296798225596, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.0770296798225596, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.011812652372390486, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.011812652372390486, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.08884233219495008, "bench_c_p1m": 0.08884233219495008, "ret_p3m": -0.042090440106167026, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.042090440106167026, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.18827335851074656, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.18827335851074656, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.14618291840457953, "bench_c_p3m": 0.14618291840457953, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.0770296798225596, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.011812652372390486, "alpha_c_stated": -0.011812652372390486, "price_path": [0.0193, 0.0312, -0.0137, -0.013, -0.0194, -0.0194, -0.0145, 0.0115, 0.0224, 0.0126, 0.0182, 0.0256, 0.0448, 0.0433, 0.054, 0.0475, 0.0425, 0.0425, 0.0819, 0.0977, 0.1179, 0.1333, 0.1499, 0.1781, 0.2238, 0.2271, 0.101, 0.0569, 0.1241, 0.1233, 0.0934, 0.127, 0.1556, 0.1442, 0.1571, 0.1169, 0.1447, 0.1447, 0.109, 0.134, 0.1372, 0.1596, 0.1909, 0.1744, 0.1715, 0.1815, 0.197, 0.2125, 0.1584, 0.1674, 0.1534, 0.1717, 0.1693, 0.1824, 0.1784, 0.1553, 0.1403, 0.1393, 0.1364, 0.1005, 0.0551, 0.0229, -0.0002, 0.0, 0.0301, -0.0086, 0.0262, 0.0259, 0.0647, 0.0834, 0.0626, 0.0626, 0.0582, 0.0685, 0.0752, 0.0836, 0.0817, 0.0773, 0.1014, 0.0899, 0.089, 0.1034, 0.0939, 0.063, 0.077, 0.0666, 0.0721, 0.0637, 0.044, 0.0329, 0.0483, 0.0471, 0.0262, 0.035, 0.0664, 0.0682, 0.0733, 0.0755, 0.0713, 0.0653, 0.0571, 0.0326, 0.0354, 0.0182, 0.0328, 0.0318, 0.024, 0.024, 0.0244, 0.0108, 0.0214, 0.0321, 0.0176, 0.0194, 0.0093, 0.0177, -0.0195, -0.017, -0.033, -0.0731, -0.0441, -0.0435, -0.0188, -0.0161, -0.0384, -0.0421, -0.0421, -0.0484, -0.0663, -0.0945, -0.0858, -0.0755, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2027346189994107162", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-27T11:32:52+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is wildly overvalued. That would still yield a wildly overvalued stock. Maybe $2.5 if using mid cycle.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN; even mid-cycle valuation yields only ~$2.50, making current price wildly overvalued.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "That would still yield a wildly overvalued stock. Maybe $2.5 if using mid cycle. \nThe conclusion remains the same.\n\n$OPEN is wildly overvalued. \n\n About those prices targets of 82 and 500;)\n\n@APompliano @ericjackson @nejatian \n@philrosenn @rabois @natbrunell \n@andrewrsorkin @gnoble79 @saraeisen @SullyCNBC @ScottWapnerCNBC @carlquintanilla @cnbcfastmoney @HalftimeReport @SamofAmerica @guyadami @tomkeene @business @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @APompliano @cvpayne @Downtown @baystreetamber @FoxBusiness @JonErlichman @twistartups @CNBC @TheCompoundNews @podcasts @davidlin_TV @YahooFinance @juleshyman @opinion @TheStalwart @brewmarkets @THERUNDOWN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 You’re valuing trough cycle numbers.\n$OPEN is cyclical  plus asset backed. When housing normalizes, revenue scales fast.\nRun the model on mid-cycle, not panic lows.\n@Stocktwits @open_army_japan @iamjohnbaiano @CapitanSteveo", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "VolaarRide", "ret_m1d": -0.0018450606533337854, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0018450606533337854, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0066701714084274055, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.002945025043664895, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00482511075509362, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0047900856969986805, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0682656605813331, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0682656605813331, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.06883418356738102, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.07009042988498437, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0005685229860479257, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0018247693036512747, "ret_p1w": -0.07749078789333341, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07749078789333341, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05765080260552047, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.055821100121523415, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019839985287812945, "bench_c_p1w": -0.021669687771809998, "ret_p1m": -0.1826568697453338, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1826568697453338, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10642532561060636, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.1060206238533844, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07623154413472744, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0766362458919494, "ret_p3m": -0.12361624849866681, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.12361624849866681, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.22058492794481677, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.14847888490238137, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09696867944614995, "bench_c_p3m": 0.024862636403714555, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1826568697453338, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10642532561060636, "alpha_c_stated": 0.1060206238533844, "price_path": [0.2897, 0.2804, 0.3985, 0.3192, 0.3007, 0.3672, 0.2915, 0.3007, 0.2103, 0.1937, 0.2417, 0.1292, 0.1587, 0.1734, 0.1845, 0.1568, 0.1587, 0.1587, 0.1089, 0.0756, 0.0775, 0.0756, 0.0756, 0.1199, 0.1661, 0.2786, 0.1292, 0.1863, 0.345, 0.2952, 0.2491, 0.2251, 0.1624, 0.2306, 0.2306, 0.179, 0.1956, 0.1845, 0.1089, 0.083, 0.072, 0.0627, 0.0295, -0.0498, -0.1107, -0.0535, -0.0775, -0.1328, -0.0996, -0.0886, -0.1347, -0.1218, -0.1919, -0.1799, -0.1799, -0.2011, -0.1458, -0.1421, -0.0775, -0.1181, -0.0572, -0.0812, -0.0018, 0.0, -0.0683, -0.083, -0.0996, -0.0443, -0.0775, -0.0627, -0.0756, -0.0277, -0.107, -0.0867, -0.0443, 0.0258, -0.0258, -0.0517, -0.0941, -0.0387, -0.0443, -0.059, -0.0959, -0.1144, -0.1827, -0.1365, -0.1568, -0.1255, -0.1255, -0.1494, -0.1605, -0.1439, -0.2048, -0.203, -0.1956, -0.1679, -0.1107, -0.0277, -0.024, -0.0129, 0.0055, 0.0018, -0.0369, 0.0166, -0.0055, 0.0111, 0.0295, -0.0074, 0.0037, -0.0535, -0.0351, 0.0074, -0.0185, -0.0756, -0.1052, -0.131, -0.155, -0.1753, -0.1919, -0.2103, -0.2066, -0.1882, -0.1568, -0.1642, -0.1642, -0.1734, -0.1236, -0.0646, -0.0701, -0.0203, -0.0018, -0.1015, -0.0867, -0.1845, -0.2048, -0.1993, -0.1734, -0.1753, -0.1808, -0.1494, -0.1236, -0.179, -0.1753, -0.1753, -0.2103, -0.2251, -0.2103, -0.2066, -0.1937, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2047416199122973107", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-23T20:43:55+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bearish TSLA at $387: broken FSD promises, GAAP P/E 700x, $25B capex vs ~$6B FCF, sum-of-parts ~$65-70/share; predicts epic crash.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla.\n\nLet me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice:\n\nElon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 \"simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD.\" \n\nHe said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation.\n\nApproximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done.\n\nBUT IT DIDN'T\n\nThose promises are now officially broken. \n\nThe solution is a \"discounted trade-in\" toward a new car with Hardware 4. \n\nNot a refund or a free upgrade... \nA discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. \n\nInvestor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS.\n\nBut that's not even the worst part.\n\nMusk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has \"major architectural improvements\" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. \n\nWhat he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe.\n\nHow many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake.\n\nNow let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating:\n\nTesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A \"double beat.\" The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right?\n\nWRONG\n\nDig into the actual filing:\n\nThe number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - \"one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs.\" \n\nThey released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation.\n\nGAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap.\n\nLet me put that in perspective:\n\n3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings.\n\nAll of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet...\n\n3 months ago, Tesla guided to \"over $20 billion\" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year.\n\nSo you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. \n\nThe math doesn't work. \n\nThey will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares.\n\nThe core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time:\n\nTesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again).\n\nThey produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. \n\nInventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. \n\nTheir market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline.\n\nAnd here's what really kills the bull case...\n\nThe entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it:\n\nWaymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. \n\nThat's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. \n\nAnd Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment.\n\nTesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15.\n\nSum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not.\n\nThe stock is $387.\n\nSo what exactly are you paying for?\n\nYou're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone.\n\nI managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981.\n\nAnd I am telling you: \n\nTesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career.\n\nTHE CRASH WILL BE EPIC\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.006856196268826498, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.006856196268826498, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0008335229561829971, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0011479268799720055, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007689719225009495, "bench_c_m1d": -0.008004123148798503, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0062982346841573555, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0062982346841573555, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.004575446846593723, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.013459835503634499, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.001722787837563633, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007161600819477143, "ret_p1w": 0.038586287542583086, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.038586287542583086, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.029187751346553492, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.03909189111151312, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009398536196029594, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0005056035689300353, "ret_p1m": 0.13210210891637209, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13210210891637209, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08770063798125993, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12797374306188725, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04440147093511215, "bench_c_p1m": 0.004128365854484839, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13210210891637209, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08770063798125993, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12797374306188725, "price_path": [0.1451, 0.1466, 0.107, 0.1438, 0.1209, 0.1213, 0.079, 0.0556, 0.0925, 0.109, 0.13, 0.1381, 0.1083, 0.1093, 0.1093, 0.0912, 0.0931, 0.0941, 0.0944, 0.0625, 0.0879, 0.1092, 0.0858, 0.0697, 0.0718, 0.0429, 0.0788, 0.0777, 0.0543, 0.0595, 0.061, 0.0838, 0.0497, 0.0396, 0.0512, 0.061, 0.0438, 0.0106, -0.0222, 0.0121, 0.0179, 0.0256, -0.0111, -0.0385, -0.0559, -0.0121, 0.0132, -0.0417, -0.0417, -0.0624, -0.0788, -0.0878, -0.0815, -0.0727, -0.0635, -0.0322, 0.0416, 0.0335, 0.0646, 0.0431, 0.0269, 0.0298, -0.0069, 0.0, 0.0063, -0.0007, -0.0093, 0.0142, 0.0386, 0.0431, 0.0347, 0.0596, 0.0943, 0.1383, 0.1826, 0.1519, 0.1833, 0.178, 0.1221, 0.0895, 0.0739, 0.1088, 0.1104, 0.1321, 0.1321, 0.1522, 0.1702, 0.1749, 0.1581, 0.1052, 0.1261, 0.126, 0.112, 0.0391, 0.0868, 0.0542, 0.0141, 0.0607, 0.0801, 0.0926, 0.0754, 0.0534, 0.0643, 0.0643, 0.0764, 0.0141, -0.002, -0.0031, 0.0091, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2034730532081435049", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-19T20:35:36+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "AND BUY GOLD", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Buy gold; oil above $100 fuels inflation with no rate cuts; PE firms have further to fall after $265B wipeout.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption.\n\nThose were SYMPTOMS.\n\nThe disease is the same one I've seen 3 times in 45 years on Wall Street:\n\nToo much money, too much leverage, too little discipline, and a financial product sold as \"safe\" to people who didn't understand what they owned.\n\nPrivate credit grew to $3 trillion on a simple lie - that you could earn 9-10% yields with \"semi-liquidity\" on assets that have no liquid market.\n\nThat's not investing. That's volatility laundering. And the Street dressed it up beautifully.\n\n\"Private credit.\" Sounds so exclusive, so sophisticated. Illiquid loan sharking would be more accurate.\n\nAnd don't get me started on \"private equity\", another Wall Street rebrand designed to make LEVERAGED BUYOUTS sound like fine wine. They changed the name because the old one scared people. The risk didn't change. Just the marketing.\n\nWall Street has always been brilliant at one thing: rebranding risk as exclusivity and selling it to people who don't know what they're buying.\n\nNow add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart.\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is shut. The IEA is calling it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The Fed held rates steady yesterday and the market just RIPPED AWAY expectations for even a single cut this year.\n\nOil is the fuse. But the TNT was packed years ago.\n\nOil above $100 means inflation stays sticky. No rate cuts. Every overleveraged borrower inside these private credit portfolios gets squeezed harder every single month.\n\n Interest coverage ratios deteriorate. Defaults tick up. Valuations get marked down.\n\nAnd when valuations drop, the leverage stacked on top of that leverage (the \"back-leverage\" that banks provide using those same loans as collateral) starts to unwind. \n\nAnd JPMorgan already started.\nThey marked down software loan collateral and restricted lending to private credit funds. When the biggest bank in America pulls back, that's a SIGNAL.\n\nHigh-yield spreads just surged to 470 basis points. The widest in years. Credit markets are screaming what equity markets haven't fully heard yet.\n\nI've watched this exact pattern before. \n\n- Junk bonds in the '80s\n- Dot-com leverage in 2000\n- Structured mortgage products in 2007\n\nThe product changes every time but the architecture never does: \n\nWall Street creates something complex, sells it as safe, layers leverage on top, markets the yields to retail investors, and collects enormous fees on the way in.\n\nThen something breaks and the gates go up. \n\nThe people who built the machine are fine - they already got paid. The people who bought the brochure are trapped behind locked doors.\n\n$265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done.\n\nAnd you know what? That's FANTASTIC.\n\nPerhaps we'll finally get some real price discovery. Just say no to mark to model.\n\nHolders of this fine merchandise will get the returns they deserve. The pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies that piled into this garbage should take the hit. No bailouts. NONE. \n\nThis nonsense has gone on far too long and moral hazard is the predictable result.\n\nThe only way to end this insanity is to let Mr. Market operate. \n\nAllow price discovery. Allow bankruptcy. No more money printing. No more crony capitalism. No more extend and pretend.\n\nBlow it all up. That is the only way.\n\n\"But what about the individuals who get hurt!\"\n\nBetter to take the hit now and reset than continue down this road. Hyper-financialization is destroying our economy and enriching the fortunes of the few. This must stop. NOW.\n\nBut I have little confidence it will. We'll get more of the same:\n\nRule changes. Special accommodations. The inevitable big ease will come.\n\nCount on it.\n\nAND BUY GOLD\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.031520631441742664, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.031520631441742664, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.016976433977598848, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.016976433977598848, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.014544197464143815, "bench_c_m1d": 0.014544197464143815, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02259421410703788, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.02259421410703788, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03309420533251428, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03309420533251428, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.010499991225476402, "bench_c_p1d": 0.010499991225476402, "ret_p1w": 0.003193205546051958, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.003193205546051958, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.025519273259333786, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.025519273259333786, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.022326067713281827, "bench_c_p1w": -0.022326067713281827, "ret_p1m": 0.06945181459179905, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06945181459179905, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.023290559922606535, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.023290559922606535, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09274237451440559, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09274237451440559, "ret_p3m": -0.05994484127581756, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05994484127581756, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.20239668470887928, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.20239668470887928, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.14245184343306172, "bench_c_p3m": 0.14245184343306172, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06945181459179905, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.023290559922606535, "alpha_c_stated": -0.023290559922606535, "price_path": [0.0006, -0.0035, -0.0035, 0.0081, -0.0358, -0.0351, -0.0413, -0.0413, -0.0365, -0.0112, -0.0005, -0.01, -0.0046, 0.0026, 0.0214, 0.02, 0.0304, 0.0241, 0.0191, 0.0191, 0.0577, 0.0731, 0.0929, 0.1079, 0.1241, 0.1517, 0.1964, 0.1996, 0.0764, 0.0333, 0.099, 0.0982, 0.0689, 0.1018, 0.1298, 0.1186, 0.1312, 0.0919, 0.1191, 0.1191, 0.0842, 0.1086, 0.1117, 0.1336, 0.1643, 0.1481, 0.1452, 0.1551, 0.1702, 0.1854, 0.1325, 0.1413, 0.1276, 0.1455, 0.1431, 0.156, 0.1521, 0.1294, 0.1148, 0.1138, 0.111, 0.0759, 0.0315, 0.0, -0.0226, -0.0224, 0.007, -0.0308, 0.0032, 0.0029, 0.0409, 0.0591, 0.0388, 0.0388, 0.0345, 0.0446, 0.0512, 0.0593, 0.0575, 0.0532, 0.0767, 0.0655, 0.0646, 0.0787, 0.0695, 0.0392, 0.0529, 0.0427, 0.0481, 0.0399, 0.0206, 0.0097, 0.0249, 0.0237, 0.0032, 0.0118, 0.0425, 0.0443, 0.0493, 0.0515, 0.0473, 0.0414, 0.0335, 0.0095, 0.0122, -0.0045, 0.0097, 0.0087, 0.0011, 0.0011, 0.0015, -0.0118, -0.0015, 0.009, -0.0051, -0.0035, -0.0133, -0.0051, -0.0415, -0.039, -0.0547, -0.0939, -0.0655, -0.0649, -0.0407, -0.0381, -0.0599, -0.0635, -0.0635, -0.0696, -0.0872, -0.1148, -0.1062, -0.0962, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2034730532081435049", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-19T20:35:36+00:00", "symbol": "oil", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Now add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Buy gold; oil above $100 fuels inflation with no rate cuts; PE firms have further to fall after $265B wipeout.", "resolved_tickers": ["USO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "USO is the standard crude oil ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption.\n\nThose were SYMPTOMS.\n\nThe disease is the same one I've seen 3 times in 45 years on Wall Street:\n\nToo much money, too much leverage, too little discipline, and a financial product sold as \"safe\" to people who didn't understand what they owned.\n\nPrivate credit grew to $3 trillion on a simple lie - that you could earn 9-10% yields with \"semi-liquidity\" on assets that have no liquid market.\n\nThat's not investing. That's volatility laundering. And the Street dressed it up beautifully.\n\n\"Private credit.\" Sounds so exclusive, so sophisticated. Illiquid loan sharking would be more accurate.\n\nAnd don't get me started on \"private equity\", another Wall Street rebrand designed to make LEVERAGED BUYOUTS sound like fine wine. They changed the name because the old one scared people. The risk didn't change. Just the marketing.\n\nWall Street has always been brilliant at one thing: rebranding risk as exclusivity and selling it to people who don't know what they're buying.\n\nNow add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart.\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is shut. The IEA is calling it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The Fed held rates steady yesterday and the market just RIPPED AWAY expectations for even a single cut this year.\n\nOil is the fuse. But the TNT was packed years ago.\n\nOil above $100 means inflation stays sticky. No rate cuts. Every overleveraged borrower inside these private credit portfolios gets squeezed harder every single month.\n\n Interest coverage ratios deteriorate. Defaults tick up. Valuations get marked down.\n\nAnd when valuations drop, the leverage stacked on top of that leverage (the \"back-leverage\" that banks provide using those same loans as collateral) starts to unwind. \n\nAnd JPMorgan already started.\nThey marked down software loan collateral and restricted lending to private credit funds. When the biggest bank in America pulls back, that's a SIGNAL.\n\nHigh-yield spreads just surged to 470 basis points. The widest in years. Credit markets are screaming what equity markets haven't fully heard yet.\n\nI've watched this exact pattern before. \n\n- Junk bonds in the '80s\n- Dot-com leverage in 2000\n- Structured mortgage products in 2007\n\nThe product changes every time but the architecture never does: \n\nWall Street creates something complex, sells it as safe, layers leverage on top, markets the yields to retail investors, and collects enormous fees on the way in.\n\nThen something breaks and the gates go up. \n\nThe people who built the machine are fine - they already got paid. The people who bought the brochure are trapped behind locked doors.\n\n$265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done.\n\nAnd you know what? That's FANTASTIC.\n\nPerhaps we'll finally get some real price discovery. Just say no to mark to model.\n\nHolders of this fine merchandise will get the returns they deserve. The pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies that piled into this garbage should take the hit. No bailouts. NONE. \n\nThis nonsense has gone on far too long and moral hazard is the predictable result.\n\nThe only way to end this insanity is to let Mr. Market operate. \n\nAllow price discovery. Allow bankruptcy. No more money printing. No more crony capitalism. No more extend and pretend.\n\nBlow it all up. That is the only way.\n\n\"But what about the individuals who get hurt!\"\n\nBetter to take the hit now and reset than continue down this road. Hyper-financialization is destroying our economy and enriching the fortunes of the few. This must stop. NOW.\n\nBut I have little confidence it will. We'll get more of the same:\n\nRule changes. Special accommodations. The inevitable big ease will come.\n\nCount on it.\n\nAND BUY GOLD\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.033517250140785326, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.033517250140785326, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04806144760492914, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04806144760492914, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.014544197464143815, "bench_c_m1d": 0.014544197464143815, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.08951661631609753, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.08951661631609753, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.10001660754157393, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.10001660754157393, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.010499991225476402, "bench_c_p1d": 0.010499991225476402, "ret_p1w": 0.022811468632997656, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.022811468632997656, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04513753634627948, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04513753634627948, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.022326067713281827, "bench_c_p1w": -0.022326067713281827, "ret_p1m": -0.0009058767197159812, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0009058767197159812, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.09364825123412157, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.09364825123412157, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09274237451440559, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09274237451440559, "ret_p3m": -0.059293394796568255, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.059293394796568255, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.20174523822962998, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.20174523822962998, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.14245184343306172, "bench_c_p3m": 0.14245184343306172, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0009058767197159812, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.09364825123412157, "alpha_c_stated": -0.09364825123412157, "price_path": [-0.4211, -0.4219, -0.4219, -0.4361, -0.4267, -0.4257, -0.4305, -0.4305, -0.4321, -0.4217, -0.4358, -0.4417, -0.4191, -0.4171, -0.4099, -0.3949, -0.402, -0.4142, -0.4099, -0.4099, -0.4082, -0.396, -0.4085, -0.391, -0.3949, -0.3769, -0.369, -0.3483, -0.3451, -0.3796, -0.362, -0.3586, -0.3684, -0.366, -0.3575, -0.3574, -0.3503, -0.371, -0.3723, -0.3723, -0.3763, -0.3461, -0.3314, -0.3342, -0.3338, -0.3349, -0.3434, -0.3431, -0.3251, -0.282, -0.2572, -0.246, -0.2069, -0.1043, -0.1408, -0.1282, -0.1102, -0.025, -0.0127, -0.0527, -0.0213, 0.002, -0.0335, 0.0, -0.0895, -0.0567, -0.0662, -0.0343, 0.0228, 0.0692, 0.0479, 0.0219, 0.1358, 0.1358, 0.1442, 0.1371, 0.0259, 0.0455, 0.0279, 0.058, 0.0199, 0.0096, 0.0363, -0.0444, -0.0009, 0.0562, 0.0656, 0.1094, 0.0903, 0.1094, 0.1496, 0.2405, 0.2113, 0.176, 0.2156, 0.1873, 0.1031, 0.1115, 0.1001, 0.1419, 0.1883, 0.1697, 0.1776, 0.2207, 0.2294, 0.2597, 0.1881, 0.1738, 0.1605, 0.1605, 0.1282, 0.0791, 0.077, 0.0631, 0.1159, 0.1304, 0.16, 0.1261, 0.0954, 0.113, 0.0813, 0.106, 0.0609, 0.0329, -0.0018, -0.0491, -0.0593, -0.054, -0.054, -0.072, -0.0838, -0.1247, -0.0998, -0.1314, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2034730532081435049", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-03-19T20:35:36+00:00", "symbol": "private equity", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Buy gold; oil above $100 fuels inflation with no rate cuts; PE firms have further to fall after $265B wipeout.", "resolved_tickers": ["PSP"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "PSP tracks listed private equity firms", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Private credit didn't blow up because of Blue Owl or bad software loans or AI disruption.\n\nThose were SYMPTOMS.\n\nThe disease is the same one I've seen 3 times in 45 years on Wall Street:\n\nToo much money, too much leverage, too little discipline, and a financial product sold as \"safe\" to people who didn't understand what they owned.\n\nPrivate credit grew to $3 trillion on a simple lie - that you could earn 9-10% yields with \"semi-liquidity\" on assets that have no liquid market.\n\nThat's not investing. That's volatility laundering. And the Street dressed it up beautifully.\n\n\"Private credit.\" Sounds so exclusive, so sophisticated. Illiquid loan sharking would be more accurate.\n\nAnd don't get me started on \"private equity\", another Wall Street rebrand designed to make LEVERAGED BUYOUTS sound like fine wine. They changed the name because the old one scared people. The risk didn't change. Just the marketing.\n\nWall Street has always been brilliant at one thing: rebranding risk as exclusivity and selling it to people who don't know what they're buying.\n\nNow add oil at $113 a barrel and watch the whole thing come apart.\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is shut. The IEA is calling it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The Fed held rates steady yesterday and the market just RIPPED AWAY expectations for even a single cut this year.\n\nOil is the fuse. But the TNT was packed years ago.\n\nOil above $100 means inflation stays sticky. No rate cuts. Every overleveraged borrower inside these private credit portfolios gets squeezed harder every single month.\n\n Interest coverage ratios deteriorate. Defaults tick up. Valuations get marked down.\n\nAnd when valuations drop, the leverage stacked on top of that leverage (the \"back-leverage\" that banks provide using those same loans as collateral) starts to unwind. \n\nAnd JPMorgan already started.\nThey marked down software loan collateral and restricted lending to private credit funds. When the biggest bank in America pulls back, that's a SIGNAL.\n\nHigh-yield spreads just surged to 470 basis points. The widest in years. Credit markets are screaming what equity markets haven't fully heard yet.\n\nI've watched this exact pattern before. \n\n- Junk bonds in the '80s\n- Dot-com leverage in 2000\n- Structured mortgage products in 2007\n\nThe product changes every time but the architecture never does: \n\nWall Street creates something complex, sells it as safe, layers leverage on top, markets the yields to retail investors, and collects enormous fees on the way in.\n\nThen something breaks and the gates go up. \n\nThe people who built the machine are fine - they already got paid. The people who bought the brochure are trapped behind locked doors.\n\n$265 billion in market cap already wiped from the major PE firms. I don't think we're close to done.\n\nAnd you know what? That's FANTASTIC.\n\nPerhaps we'll finally get some real price discovery. Just say no to mark to model.\n\nHolders of this fine merchandise will get the returns they deserve. The pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies that piled into this garbage should take the hit. No bailouts. NONE. \n\nThis nonsense has gone on far too long and moral hazard is the predictable result.\n\nThe only way to end this insanity is to let Mr. Market operate. \n\nAllow price discovery. Allow bankruptcy. No more money printing. No more crony capitalism. No more extend and pretend.\n\nBlow it all up. That is the only way.\n\n\"But what about the individuals who get hurt!\"\n\nBetter to take the hit now and reset than continue down this road. Hyper-financialization is destroying our economy and enriching the fortunes of the few. This must stop. NOW.\n\nBut I have little confidence it will. We'll get more of the same:\n\nRule changes. Special accommodations. The inevitable big ease will come.\n\nCount on it.\n\nAND BUY GOLD\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.029561129969970734, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.029561129969970734, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.015016932505826919, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.015016932505826919, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.014544197464143815, "bench_c_m1d": 0.014544197464143815, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.014057824736444458, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.014057824736444458, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.003557833510968056, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.003557833510968056, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.010499991225476402, "bench_c_p1d": 0.010499991225476402, "ret_p1w": -0.00721990562012409, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.00721990562012409, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.015106162093157738, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.015106162093157738, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.022326067713281827, "bench_c_p1w": -0.022326067713281827, "ret_p1m": 0.13699601881090806, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13699601881090806, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04425364429650247, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04425364429650247, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09274237451440559, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09274237451440559, "ret_p3m": 0.06697939910927331, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.06697939910927331, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.07547244432378841, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07547244432378841, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.14245184343306172, "bench_c_p3m": 0.14245184343306172, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13699601881090806, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04425364429650247, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04425364429650247, "price_path": [0.2187, 0.2252, 0.2252, 0.2231, 0.2254, 0.2211, 0.2164, 0.2164, 0.2278, 0.2497, 0.2553, 0.2414, 0.2401, 0.2528, 0.257, 0.2396, 0.2408, 0.2688, 0.2751, 0.2751, 0.2278, 0.2468, 0.2586, 0.2506, 0.2419, 0.2466, 0.2408, 0.2419, 0.226, 0.2214, 0.1645, 0.1668, 0.1366, 0.1638, 0.1777, 0.1839, 0.1659, 0.1507, 0.1507, 0.1507, 0.1558, 0.1627, 0.1342, 0.1326, 0.0961, 0.0997, 0.1157, 0.1206, 0.095, 0.0912, 0.0716, 0.0919, 0.0789, 0.062, 0.0575, 0.0501, 0.0305, 0.0096, 0.0131, 0.0183, 0.0375, 0.0303, 0.0296, 0.0, 0.0141, 0.0061, 0.0266, 0.0061, -0.0072, 0.0028, 0.0279, 0.0315, 0.029, 0.029, 0.033, 0.0322, 0.0528, 0.0461, 0.0486, 0.0743, 0.1003, 0.1281, 0.1175, 0.141, 0.137, 0.1326, 0.1395, 0.1046, 0.103, 0.0959, 0.0901, 0.0723, 0.1079, 0.111, 0.1075, 0.1241, 0.1321, 0.1135, 0.1299, 0.1152, 0.1084, 0.0994, 0.0964, 0.0868, 0.0861, 0.0683, 0.0915, 0.1059, 0.1021, 0.1021, 0.113, 0.1099, 0.101, 0.109, 0.1037, 0.1048, 0.0522, 0.0764, 0.0522, 0.0495, 0.0652, 0.0517, 0.0639, 0.0746, 0.0775, 0.0839, 0.067, 0.059, 0.059, 0.0462, 0.0184, 0.0069, 0.0173, 0.0149, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2047136060811923951", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-23T02:10:45+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Tesla is wildly overvalued. Fair value is maybe $50. I am short from $475. The coming crash will be epic.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA from $475; calls it wildly overvalued with fair value ~$50, biggest bubble in stock market history, narratives-driven.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "86% of Tesla revenues are from autos and related services. Some might irresponsibly suggest that $TSLA is an auto company! Could you imagine? \n\nCall it whatever you want; the market cap is indefensible even if one ascribes generous valuations to their other business. \n\nThat is a FACT. Kindly show your valuation framework if you disagree.\nAd hominem attacks are no substitute for fundamental analysis. \n\nTesla is wildly overvalued. The share price is sustained only by narratives and dreams. \n\nTesla does not have the necessary Texas state approval for paid unsupervised robotaxi rides post May 28. It will be years before they are able to develop the necessary technology, by which time it is likely that such technology will be commoditized and widely available. \n\nThe stock is unchanged over the last four years and has massively underperformed the market. \n\nInvestors increasingly ain’t buying the hopium that @elonmusk is selling. \n\nFair value is maybe $50. \n\n$TSLA is the biggest bubble at scale in stock market history.\n\nThe coming crash will be epic.\n\nI am short from $475.\n\n@GordonJohnson19 \n@BradMunchen \n@StanphylCap \n@TeslaBoomerMama \n@GerberKawasaki \n@RealJimChanos", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Tesla is an AI stock going forward…not a car company @CNBCClosingBell 🔥🎯🐂", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03689930562955901, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03689930562955901, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03300344593924298, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.026792256588431984, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003895859690316028, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010107049041127025, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0069035282132037246, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0069035282132037246, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0008457810240278807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0011651778525969547, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007749309237231605, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00806870606580068, "ret_p1w": 0.021165588237912036, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.021165588237912036, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0067539132350464826, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.015984675397364256, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014411675002865554, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00518091284054778, "ret_p1m": 0.13991760776550355, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1276872252746062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.052494860901207696, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012230382490897362, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1276872252746062, "price_path": [0.1645, 0.153, 0.1545, 0.1146, 0.1517, 0.1287, 0.1291, 0.0864, 0.0629, 0.1, 0.1167, 0.1378, 0.146, 0.116, 0.117, 0.117, 0.0988, 0.1006, 0.1017, 0.1019, 0.0699, 0.0954, 0.1169, 0.0933, 0.077, 0.0792, 0.0501, 0.0862, 0.0852, 0.0616, 0.0668, 0.0683, 0.0912, 0.057, 0.0468, 0.0584, 0.0684, 0.051, 0.0176, -0.0154, 0.0191, 0.0249, 0.0327, -0.0043, -0.0318, -0.0493, -0.0053, 0.0202, -0.0351, -0.0351, -0.0559, -0.0724, -0.0815, -0.0752, -0.0663, -0.057, -0.0255, 0.0488, 0.0406, 0.072, 0.0503, 0.034, 0.0369, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0132, 0.0062, -0.0025, 0.0212, 0.0458, 0.0503, 0.0419, 0.0669, 0.1019, 0.1462, 0.1907, 0.1598, 0.1915, 0.1862, 0.1298, 0.0971, 0.0813, 0.1165, 0.1181, 0.1399, 0.1399, 0.1602, 0.1783, 0.183, 0.1661, 0.1128, 0.1338, 0.1337, 0.1197, 0.0462, 0.0943, 0.0614, 0.0211, 0.068, 0.0875, 0.1002, 0.0828, 0.0606, 0.0716, 0.0716, 0.0838, 0.0211, 0.0048, 0.0037, 0.016, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2010707700007510046", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-12T13:37:27+00:00", "symbol": "oil", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I don't see much downside in oil prices from here (geopolitics providing a floor), and I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author sees limited downside in oil prices and views energy stocks as attractive on the cycle; dismisses Trump's $50 oil target as unrealistic.", "resolved_tickers": ["USO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "USO is the standard crude oil ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S VENEZUELA OIL PLAN\n\nAnd there's a huge problem.\n\nEveryone's expecting Venezuela to pump 3M+ barrels per day and crash oil prices.\n\nBut here's what nobody's talking about:\n\nThe infrastructure is DEAD.\n\n30 years of socialist mismanagement destroyed everything.\n\nPDVSA (Venezuela's state oil company) went from world-class operator to complete disaster.\n\nRefineries are rusting. Pipelines are leaking. Equipment is ancient.\n\nThe realistic cost to fix it? $100-180 BILLION over 10-15 years.\n\nNobody has that kind of money.\n\nEspecially not for a country that just stole billions from foreign investors.\n\nThe Exxon Problem:\n\nVenezuela owes $60 billion in unpaid arbitration awards.\n\nExxon, ConocoPhillips, and others got their assets seized in 2007.\n\nThey won in international court. Venezuela never paid.\n\nNow Trump's calling oil execs saying \"invest in Venezuela.\"\n\nTheir response: \"Show us rule of law first.\"\n\nTranslation: We're not putting billions into a country that might nationalize us again.\n\nThe Chevron Reality Check:\n\nChevron's the ONLY major still there.\n\nThey're operating under special US license.\n\nBest case scenario with their current setup? Add 200-500k barrels per day.\n\nThat brings Venezuela from 900k bpd to maybe 1.1-1.5M bpd.\n\nStill 50% below their historical peak.\n\nAnd that's the OPTIMISTIC scenario.\n\nThe Orinoco Problem:\n\nVenezuela's oil is heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt.\n\nIt's thick, sulfurous, expensive to extract.\n\nNeeds special refineries to process.\n\nAt current oil prices, the margins are horrible.\n\nWhy would any company invest billions for 8-12% returns when they can get 15-20% in US shale?\n\nThey wouldn't.\n\nAnd here's the part that kills me:\n\nTrump keeps saying he wants $50 oil.\n\nBut $50 oil DESTROYS the investment case for Venezuelan production.\n\nYou can't spend $180 billion rebuilding infrastructure if oil prices are suppressed.\n\nThe economics don't work.\n\nSo either:\n\n1. Oil stays at $50 and nobody invests in Venezuela\n2. Oil rises to $80+ and Venezuela becomes viable but prices don't crash anyway\n\nTrump can't have both.\n\nSo even IF someone could rebuild the infrastructure...\n\nVenezuela's political situation is still a mess.\n\nMaduro's supposedly leaving. But to who? Maria Corina Machado? Another strongman?\n\nNobody knows what the government will look like in 12 months.\n\nMajor oil companies don't invest billions into that level of uncertainty.\n\nThey need 10-year stability guarantees.\n\nVenezuela can't provide that.\n\nThe US Shale Comparison:\n\nMeanwhile, Trump's threatening to cut oil prices.\n\nUS rig count is already falling.\n\nShale producers are pulling back on new drilling.\n\nIf you artificially suppress oil prices, you REDUCE future supply.\n\nNot just in Venezuela. Everywhere.\n\nLow prices = less investment = tighter supply later.\n\nIt's basic economics.\n\nThe Realistic Timeline:\n\nAbsolute best case with Chevron's existing operations:\n\n- 18-24 months to add 200-500k bpd\n- Total Venezuelan production hits 1.1-1.5M bpd\n- Still nowhere near the 3M bpd everyone's expecting\n\nThat's not a game-changer for global oil markets.\n\nMy Take on Energy Stocks:\n\nI don’t see much downside in oil prices from here (geopolitics providing a floor), and I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle.\n\nBut Trump's $50 oil talk is exactly that - talk.\n\nThe gap between political promises and physical reality has never been wider.\n\nYou can't tweet oil fields into existence.\n\nYou can't executive order decades of infrastructure neglect away.\n\nAnd you definitely can't rebuild a collapsed petro-state while simultaneously crashing the price of its only export.\n\nEnergy reality > political promises\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/BQlMVNj33j", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.012142396762794161, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.012142396762794161, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010574426154916883, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.010574426154916883, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0015679706078772782, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015679706078772782, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.025540848458931453, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.025540848458931453, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027540355224313307, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.027540355224313307, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0019995067653818532, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0019995067653818532, "ret_p1w": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.005034823882229533, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.005034823882229533, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.005034823882229533, "bench_c_p1w": -0.005034823882229533, "ret_p1m": 0.08904392348287127, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08904392348287127, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09341701151465864, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09341701151465864, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0043730880317873755, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0043730880317873755, "ret_p3m": 0.7719469138966677, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.7719469138966677, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.7912132512341928, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.7912132512341928, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.01926633733752514, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01926633733752514, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08904392348287127, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09341701151465864, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09341701151465864, "price_path": [-0.0371, -0.0536, -0.0512, -0.0533, -0.0472, -0.0142, 0.0229, 0.0214, 0.0205, -0.0036, 0.0021, 0.0008, 0.0127, 0.0152, 0.0039, -0.0087, -0.0107, -0.0054, 0.0004, 0.0149, -0.026, -0.0251, -0.0038, -0.0049, 0.0119, -0.0107, -0.0209, -0.0328, -0.0172, -0.0335, -0.0225, -0.0225, -0.0081, -0.0082, -0.0202, -0.0138, -0.0036, 0.0038, -0.0162, -0.025, -0.0155, -0.0335, -0.0396, -0.0525, -0.0765, -0.0512, -0.0622, -0.0505, -0.0268, -0.0188, -0.0202, -0.0202, -0.0442, -0.0285, -0.0267, -0.0348, -0.0348, -0.0375, -0.02, -0.0438, -0.0539, -0.0155, -0.0121, 0.0, 0.0255, 0.0134, -0.0073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029, 0.0236, 0.0024, 0.0321, 0.0255, 0.056, 0.0694, 0.1045, 0.1098, 0.0514, 0.0812, 0.087, 0.0703, 0.0745, 0.0889, 0.089, 0.101, 0.066, 0.0638, 0.0638, 0.0569, 0.1082, 0.1331, 0.1284, 0.1291, 0.1271, 0.1128, 0.1133, 0.1438, 0.2169, 0.2589, 0.2779, 0.3442, 0.5181, 0.4561, 0.4775, 0.508, 0.6523, 0.6733, 0.6054, 0.6586, 0.6981, 0.638, 0.6948, 0.5431, 0.5986, 0.5826, 0.6366, 0.7334, 0.812, 0.776, 0.7319, 0.9249, 0.9249, 0.9391, 0.9271, 0.7387, 0.7719, 0.7421, 0.793, 0.7285, 0.711, 0.7563, 0.6195, 0.6932, 0.79, 0.806, 0.8803, 0.8479, 0.8803, 0.9484, 1.1023, 1.0529, 0.993, 1.0602, 1.0121, 0.8695, 0.8837, 0.8645, 0.9352, 1.014, 0.9824, 0.9958, 1.0688, 1.0836, 1.1348, 1.0135, 0.9894, 0.9668, 0.9668, 0.9121, 0.8288, 0.8253, 0.8017, 0.8911, 0.9158, 0.9659, 0.9084, 0.8565, 0.8863, 0.8325, 0.8744, 0.798, 0.7506, 0.6917, 0.6116, 0.5943, 0.6032, 0.6032, 0.5728, 0.5528, 0.4835, 0.5256, 0.4722, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2010707700007510046", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-12T13:37:27+00:00", "symbol": "energy stocks", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author sees limited downside in oil prices and views energy stocks as attractive on the cycle; dismisses Trump's $50 oil target as unrealistic.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE is the primary US energy equity sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST CRUNCHED THE NUMBERS ON TRUMP'S VENEZUELA OIL PLAN\n\nAnd there's a huge problem.\n\nEveryone's expecting Venezuela to pump 3M+ barrels per day and crash oil prices.\n\nBut here's what nobody's talking about:\n\nThe infrastructure is DEAD.\n\n30 years of socialist mismanagement destroyed everything.\n\nPDVSA (Venezuela's state oil company) went from world-class operator to complete disaster.\n\nRefineries are rusting. Pipelines are leaking. Equipment is ancient.\n\nThe realistic cost to fix it? $100-180 BILLION over 10-15 years.\n\nNobody has that kind of money.\n\nEspecially not for a country that just stole billions from foreign investors.\n\nThe Exxon Problem:\n\nVenezuela owes $60 billion in unpaid arbitration awards.\n\nExxon, ConocoPhillips, and others got their assets seized in 2007.\n\nThey won in international court. Venezuela never paid.\n\nNow Trump's calling oil execs saying \"invest in Venezuela.\"\n\nTheir response: \"Show us rule of law first.\"\n\nTranslation: We're not putting billions into a country that might nationalize us again.\n\nThe Chevron Reality Check:\n\nChevron's the ONLY major still there.\n\nThey're operating under special US license.\n\nBest case scenario with their current setup? Add 200-500k barrels per day.\n\nThat brings Venezuela from 900k bpd to maybe 1.1-1.5M bpd.\n\nStill 50% below their historical peak.\n\nAnd that's the OPTIMISTIC scenario.\n\nThe Orinoco Problem:\n\nVenezuela's oil is heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt.\n\nIt's thick, sulfurous, expensive to extract.\n\nNeeds special refineries to process.\n\nAt current oil prices, the margins are horrible.\n\nWhy would any company invest billions for 8-12% returns when they can get 15-20% in US shale?\n\nThey wouldn't.\n\nAnd here's the part that kills me:\n\nTrump keeps saying he wants $50 oil.\n\nBut $50 oil DESTROYS the investment case for Venezuelan production.\n\nYou can't spend $180 billion rebuilding infrastructure if oil prices are suppressed.\n\nThe economics don't work.\n\nSo either:\n\n1. Oil stays at $50 and nobody invests in Venezuela\n2. Oil rises to $80+ and Venezuela becomes viable but prices don't crash anyway\n\nTrump can't have both.\n\nSo even IF someone could rebuild the infrastructure...\n\nVenezuela's political situation is still a mess.\n\nMaduro's supposedly leaving. But to who? Maria Corina Machado? Another strongman?\n\nNobody knows what the government will look like in 12 months.\n\nMajor oil companies don't invest billions into that level of uncertainty.\n\nThey need 10-year stability guarantees.\n\nVenezuela can't provide that.\n\nThe US Shale Comparison:\n\nMeanwhile, Trump's threatening to cut oil prices.\n\nUS rig count is already falling.\n\nShale producers are pulling back on new drilling.\n\nIf you artificially suppress oil prices, you REDUCE future supply.\n\nNot just in Venezuela. Everywhere.\n\nLow prices = less investment = tighter supply later.\n\nIt's basic economics.\n\nThe Realistic Timeline:\n\nAbsolute best case with Chevron's existing operations:\n\n- 18-24 months to add 200-500k bpd\n- Total Venezuelan production hits 1.1-1.5M bpd\n- Still nowhere near the 3M bpd everyone's expecting\n\nThat's not a game-changer for global oil markets.\n\nMy Take on Energy Stocks:\n\nI don’t see much downside in oil prices from here (geopolitics providing a floor), and I believe energy stocks remain attractive on the cycle.\n\nBut Trump's $50 oil talk is exactly that - talk.\n\nThe gap between political promises and physical reality has never been wider.\n\nYou can't tweet oil fields into existence.\n\nYou can't executive order decades of infrastructure neglect away.\n\nAnd you definitely can't rebuild a collapsed petro-state while simultaneously crashing the price of its only export.\n\nEnergy reality > political promises\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/BQlMVNj33j", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.007121144497251208, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.007121144497251208, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.008689115105128487, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.008689115105128487, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0015679706078772782, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0015679706078772782, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.014242539359952344, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.014242539359952344, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.016242046125334197, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.016242046125334197, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0019995067653818532, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0019995067653818532, "ret_p1w": 0.029132440318718533, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.029132440318718533, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.034167264200948066, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.034167264200948066, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.005034823882229533, "bench_c_p1w": -0.005034823882229533, "ret_p1m": 0.1562364698338008, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1562364698338008, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.16060955786558817, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.16060955786558817, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0043730880317873755, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0043730880317873755, "ret_p3m": 0.24524330681351203, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.24524330681351203, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.26450964415103717, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.26450964415103717, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.01926633733752514, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01926633733752514, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1562364698338008, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.16060955786558817, "alpha_c_stated": 0.16060955786558817, "price_path": [-0.0765, -0.0876, -0.0801, -0.0704, -0.0725, -0.0607, -0.0481, -0.0578, -0.0555, -0.0654, -0.0584, -0.064, -0.0571, -0.057, -0.0672, -0.0647, -0.0556, -0.042, -0.0334, -0.0208, -0.0344, -0.032, -0.0155, -0.0335, -0.0258, -0.0384, -0.0493, -0.0433, -0.046, -0.052, -0.0448, -0.0448, -0.0323, -0.023, -0.0356, -0.0175, -0.0134, -0.0174, -0.0281, -0.0221, -0.0119, -0.0166, -0.0262, -0.0331, -0.0626, -0.0418, -0.0557, -0.0557, -0.046, -0.0397, -0.0425, -0.0425, -0.0462, -0.0371, -0.0298, -0.0352, -0.0352, -0.0149, 0.0119, -0.0151, -0.0261, 0.0045, 0.0071, 0.0, 0.0142, 0.0371, 0.0274, 0.0291, 0.0291, 0.0272, 0.052, 0.0555, 0.0615, 0.0621, 0.0719, 0.0801, 0.09, 0.1016, 0.0801, 0.115, 0.1401, 0.1267, 0.1491, 0.1575, 0.1562, 0.1864, 0.1649, 0.1729, 0.1729, 0.1599, 0.1821, 0.1908, 0.1843, 0.1901, 0.189, 0.1841, 0.188, 0.2067, 0.2309, 0.2197, 0.2126, 0.2188, 0.2208, 0.2154, 0.1998, 0.2296, 0.241, 0.2451, 0.2495, 0.2626, 0.2609, 0.281, 0.2799, 0.2952, 0.3215, 0.3156, 0.3363, 0.3588, 0.3458, 0.3306, 0.2809, 0.2869, 0.2869, 0.2963, 0.3067, 0.2609, 0.2452, 0.2368, 0.2405, 0.2153, 0.2111, 0.229, 0.1951, 0.1962, 0.2135, 0.2281, 0.2376, 0.2353, 0.2331, 0.2535, 0.2822, 0.2956, 0.2783, 0.29, 0.2913, 0.2381, 0.2153, 0.2098, 0.2418, 0.2505, 0.2518, 0.2613, 0.2911, 0.3158, 0.3313, 0.2989, 0.2843, 0.2922, 0.2922, 0.2565, 0.2379, 0.237, 0.2227, 0.2446, 0.2589, 0.2752, 0.2761, 0.2526, 0.267, 0.2465, 0.2652, 0.2407, 0.25, 0.2066, 0.2025, 0.1875, 0.1679, 0.1679, 0.1827, 0.1914, 0.172, 0.1833, 0.1779, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2025715898334519322", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-22T23:34:40+00:00", "symbol": "BETR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$BETR is down 37% since I flagged it and will keep falling IMHO", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Expects BETR to keep falling after already dropping 37% since flagged.", "resolved_tickers": ["BETR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Mortgage Finance", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "You have some nerve. I owe you nothing, You can do your own research. The info is all there in the public domain. \n\n$BETR is down 37%  since I flagged it and will keep falling IMHO. No need for me to say more. I am very happy with the way things are playing out. And @danielsethlewis is an arrogant blowhard who does not deserve a response. I will just let the stock price do the talking for me,", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @danielsethlewis Make the argument.  I read Daniel’s responses and none of them were arrogant.  You never articulated a well thought out response George.  This is your chance.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.06280017665698368, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.06280017665698368, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.052483462877497944, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.052483462877497944, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010316713779485731, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010316713779485731, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04950129913906487, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04950129913906487, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04223282386886651, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04223282386886651, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00726847527019836, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00726847527019836, "ret_p1w": 0.29294423326838803, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.29294423326838803, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.28709719028004255, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.28709719028004255, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0058470429883454855, "bench_c_p1w": 0.0058470429883454855, "ret_p1m": 0.05615073789802438, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.05615073789802438, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.09634207735786748, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.09634207735786748, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0401913394598431, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0401913394598431, "ret_p3m": -0.07536014152851134, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.07536014152851134, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16674237562117977, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.16674237562117977, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09138223409266844, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09138223409266844, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.05615073789802438, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.09634207735786748, "alpha_c_stated": -0.09634207735786748, "price_path": [0.7414, 0.7414, 0.7887, 0.6668, 0.6151, 0.6395, 0.8452, 0.6786, 0.7233, 0.758, 0.8703, 0.7939, 0.543, 0.4636, 0.4363, 0.2918, 0.3037, 0.218, 0.3506, 0.3269, 0.3668, 0.3668, 0.2904, 0.2604, 0.218, 0.2035, 0.2035, 0.2833, 0.341, 0.2937, 0.2479, 0.3831, 0.4728, 0.4156, 0.4348, 0.3938, 0.355, 0.253, 0.253, 0.1773, 0.2065, 0.1866, 0.1577, 0.0499, 0.1319, 0.1777, 0.1648, 0.1197, -0.0074, 0.0284, 0.017, -0.0665, -0.0144, 0.031, 0.0558, 0.0754, 0.0779, 0.1585, 0.1585, 0.154, 0.1784, 0.1696, 0.0628, 0.0, 0.0495, 0.1426, 0.2279, 0.2154, 0.2929, 0.2157, 0.1607, 0.2338, 0.1751, 0.3184, 0.4119, 0.4751, 0.3543, 0.2726, 0.0602, 0.1533, 0.0517, 0.0709, 0.0089, 0.0709, 0.0562, 0.1607, 0.2235, 0.1326, 0.2335, 0.3158, 0.28, 0.3894, 0.3894, 0.4909, 0.6564, 0.2931, 0.191, 0.2098, 0.2959, 0.2837, 0.413, 0.379, 0.5231, 0.754, 0.7196, 0.6952, 0.5187, 0.5715, 0.502, 0.5582, 0.4451, 0.5194, 0.6395, 0.5356, 0.5674, 0.577, 0.1274, 0.1108, 0.147, 0.1223, 0.0713, 0.075, -0.0026, -0.0746, -0.0669, -0.1008, -0.0754, -0.0539, -0.0539, -0.0222, -0.0059, 0.0451, 0.0776, 0.0717, 0.0469, -0.0244, 0.0199, -0.0536, -0.0598, -0.075, -0.1234, -0.1097, -0.0207, 0.065, 0.0805, 0.0041, 0.0502, 0.0502, -0.0255, -0.051, -0.0325, -0.055, -0.0517, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2009594976607600811", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-09T11:55:53+00:00", "symbol": "Gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish gold, drawing Weimar hyperinflation parallel to current US policy.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Scott Bessent, please call your office.\n\nYou can’t own enough gold.\n@LukeGromen @GordonJohnson19 @DonDurrett @davevermilion @PeterSchiff @QTRResearch @LawrenceLepard @htsfhickey  #GOLD #SILVER $GDX", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "\"With that, the rush to get out of the mark was on. Like a dam bursting, the seas of marks flooded into the markets and drove prices beyond all bounds. The German government strove mightily to outflood the sea.\" https://t.co/Dslipjse38", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.007189931665865679, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.007189931665865679, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0006199981555448097, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0006199981555448097, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006569933510320869, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006569933510320869, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.018722729613168898, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.018722729613168898, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.017152296612505058, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.017152296612505058, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00157043300066384, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00157043300066384, "ret_p1w": 0.01645476706186777, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.01645476706186777, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.019927064797010563, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.019927064797010563, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.003472297735142793, "bench_c_p1w": -0.003472297735142793, "ret_p1m": 0.12681254953022725, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.12681254953022725, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.12698547043482633, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.12698547043482633, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00017292090459908316, "bench_c_p1m": -0.00017292090459908316, "ret_p3m": 0.048399154340513784, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.048399154340513784, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.07175956623881574, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07175956623881574, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.023360411898301958, "bench_c_p3m": -0.023360411898301958, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.12681254953022725, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.12698547043482633, "alpha_c_stated": 0.12698547043482633, "price_path": [-0.0813, -0.0653, -0.0435, -0.0615, -0.0273, -0.0898, -0.0897, -0.0861, -0.0892, -0.1145, -0.1209, -0.1242, -0.107, -0.1118, -0.1102, -0.1258, -0.1157, -0.1168, -0.1114, -0.0871, -0.0835, -0.0687, -0.0762, -0.0929, -0.1033, -0.0968, -0.0953, -0.0956, -0.097, -0.0827, -0.083, -0.0756, -0.0756, -0.0642, -0.0596, -0.0657, -0.0666, -0.066, -0.0676, -0.0701, -0.0653, -0.0613, -0.0512, -0.0459, -0.045, -0.0448, -0.0366, -0.0384, -0.0373, -0.0151, -0.002, -0.0061, -0.0061, 0.0055, -0.0383, -0.0376, -0.0438, -0.0438, -0.0391, -0.0138, -0.0031, -0.0126, -0.0072, 0.0, 0.0187, 0.0173, 0.0277, 0.0214, 0.0165, 0.0165, 0.0549, 0.0703, 0.09, 0.105, 0.1212, 0.1487, 0.1932, 0.1965, 0.0735, 0.0305, 0.0961, 0.0953, 0.0661, 0.0989, 0.1268, 0.1156, 0.1283, 0.0891, 0.1162, 0.1162, 0.0814, 0.1057, 0.1088, 0.1306, 0.1612, 0.1451, 0.1422, 0.152, 0.1672, 0.1822, 0.1295, 0.1383, 0.1246, 0.1424, 0.1401, 0.1529, 0.149, 0.1265, 0.1119, 0.1109, 0.1081, 0.073, 0.0288, -0.0026, -0.0252, -0.0249, 0.0044, -0.0334, 0.0006, 0.0003, 0.0382, 0.0563, 0.036, 0.036, 0.0318, 0.0418, 0.0484, 0.0566, 0.0547, 0.0504, 0.0739, 0.0627, 0.0618, 0.0759, 0.0666, 0.0364, 0.0502, 0.04, 0.0453, 0.0372, 0.018, 0.0071, 0.0222, 0.021, 0.0006, 0.0092, 0.0398, 0.0415, 0.0466, 0.0487, 0.0445, 0.0387, 0.0307, 0.0068, 0.0096, -0.0072, 0.0071, 0.0061, -0.0016, -0.0016, -0.0011, -0.0144, -0.0041, 0.0064, -0.0077, -0.0061, -0.0159, -0.0077, -0.044, -0.0415, -0.0572, -0.0962, -0.0679, -0.0674, -0.0432, -0.0406, -0.0624, -0.066, -0.066, -0.0721, -0.0896, -0.1171, -0.1086, -0.0985, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026794447766196484", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-25T23:00:27+00:00", "symbol": "XLE", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "long XLE, short XLK", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long energy (XLE, offshore drillers, Tidewater) / short tech (XLK) on rotation thesis: energy underweighted, AI capex unproductive, reflationary impulse driving resources.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Schlumberger OUTPERFORMED Microsoft by 100%\n\nRead that again.\n\nIn the last 3 months, a boring oilfield services company doubled the returns of one of the most valuable companies on earth.\n\nWhy is no one talking about this?\n\nEnergy is 3% of the S&P 500. Tech is 35%.\n\nThat's not a weighting... \n\nThat's a setup.\n\nI watched Japan go from 66% of the non-US index to an afterthought. I watched tech go from nothing to everything twice.\n\nAnd I'm telling you right now:\n\nThis rotation is just getting started...\n\nIf you're running $250 billion at Fidelity, you can't overweight energy 10x. \n\nThe math doesn't work. A 3% sector means you maybe go to 5% if you're feeling aggressive.\n\nBut tech at 35%? You can buy 40 different names and still be underweight.\n\nSo institutional money piles into the same mega-caps. Microsoft. Apple. Nvidia. The same seven stocks that carried the market for years.\n\nMeanwhile energy gets ignored. Too small to matter. Too volatile to own. Too unfashionable to pitch.\n\nThat's EXACTLY when you want to be there.\n\nThe reflationary impulse is real. Interest rates are stimulative. Resources, metals, energy - everything geared into that impulse is working.\n\nAnd tech? \n\nThe AI spending story is FALLING APART. \n\n$380 billion in capex last year. CFOs can't point to measurable returns. The Duke survey shows \"no change\" across productivity metrics at most companies deploying AI.\n\nYou're paying 30x earnings for companies spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure that doesn't show up in the numbers yet.\n\nOr you can buy energy at single-digit multiples with real cash flows and a structural tailwind.\n\nThe offshore drillers are where I see the most upside. \n\nValaris got taken out at 84 after I pitched it at 54 in December. Tidewater is next.\n\nBut if you want to keep it simple: long XLE, short XLK.\n\nOne trade. Captures the entire rotation.\n\nThis is the year active management finally matters. The dispersion is here. The setup is perfect.\n\n5 years of underperformance trained everyone to just buy the index and forget about it.\n\nThat's about to change.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.003269757677966223, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.003269757677966223, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.008855227445028757, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008855227445028757, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.015803781942906436, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.015803781942906436, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.020605722801517734, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.020605722801517734, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "ret_p1w": 0.025976392608088483, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.025976392608088483, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.037567849134206854, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.037567849134206854, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "ret_p1m": 0.14384650628949247, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.14384650628949247, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.22142993293504787, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.22142993293504787, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "ret_p3m": 0.05772881384032558, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05772881384032558, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.03416144831605594, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03416144831605594, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.14384650628949247, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.22142993293504787, "alpha_c_stated": 0.22142993293504787, "price_path": [-0.1776, -0.1882, -0.173, -0.1695, -0.1729, -0.1819, -0.1769, -0.1682, -0.1722, -0.1803, -0.186, -0.2109, -0.1934, -0.2051, -0.2051, -0.1969, -0.1916, -0.194, -0.194, -0.1971, -0.1895, -0.1833, -0.1878, -0.1878, -0.1708, -0.1482, -0.1709, -0.1802, -0.1544, -0.1522, -0.1582, -0.1462, -0.127, -0.1351, -0.1337, -0.1337, -0.1353, -0.1144, -0.1115, -0.1064, -0.1059, -0.0977, -0.0908, -0.0825, -0.0727, -0.0908, -0.0614, -0.0403, -0.0516, -0.0327, -0.0256, -0.0267, -0.0013, -0.0194, -0.0127, -0.0127, -0.0236, -0.0049, 0.0024, -0.0031, 0.0018, 0.0009, -0.0033, 0.0, 0.0158, 0.0361, 0.0267, 0.0207, 0.026, 0.0276, 0.0231, 0.01, 0.0351, 0.0447, 0.0481, 0.0518, 0.0629, 0.0614, 0.0783, 0.0774, 0.0903, 0.1124, 0.1075, 0.1248, 0.1438, 0.1329, 0.1201, 0.0782, 0.0833, 0.0833, 0.0912, 0.1, 0.0614, 0.0482, 0.0411, 0.0442, 0.023, 0.0195, 0.0345, 0.006, 0.0069, 0.0215, 0.0338, 0.0418, 0.0398, 0.038, 0.0552, 0.0793, 0.0906, 0.076, 0.0859, 0.087, 0.0422, 0.023, 0.0184, 0.0453, 0.0526, 0.0537, 0.0618, 0.0868, 0.1076, 0.1206, 0.0934, 0.0811, 0.0877, 0.0877, 0.0577, 0.042, 0.0413, 0.0292, 0.0477, 0.0597, 0.0735, 0.0742, 0.0544, 0.0665, 0.0493, 0.065, 0.0444, 0.0522, 0.0157, 0.0122, -0.0004, -0.0169, -0.0169, -0.0044, 0.0029, -0.0135, -0.0039, -0.0085, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026794447766196484", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-25T23:00:27+00:00", "symbol": "XLK", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "long XLE, short XLK", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long energy (XLE, offshore drillers, Tidewater) / short tech (XLK) on rotation thesis: energy underweighted, AI capex unproductive, reflationary impulse driving resources.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLK"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Schlumberger OUTPERFORMED Microsoft by 100%\n\nRead that again.\n\nIn the last 3 months, a boring oilfield services company doubled the returns of one of the most valuable companies on earth.\n\nWhy is no one talking about this?\n\nEnergy is 3% of the S&P 500. Tech is 35%.\n\nThat's not a weighting... \n\nThat's a setup.\n\nI watched Japan go from 66% of the non-US index to an afterthought. I watched tech go from nothing to everything twice.\n\nAnd I'm telling you right now:\n\nThis rotation is just getting started...\n\nIf you're running $250 billion at Fidelity, you can't overweight energy 10x. \n\nThe math doesn't work. A 3% sector means you maybe go to 5% if you're feeling aggressive.\n\nBut tech at 35%? You can buy 40 different names and still be underweight.\n\nSo institutional money piles into the same mega-caps. Microsoft. Apple. Nvidia. The same seven stocks that carried the market for years.\n\nMeanwhile energy gets ignored. Too small to matter. Too volatile to own. Too unfashionable to pitch.\n\nThat's EXACTLY when you want to be there.\n\nThe reflationary impulse is real. Interest rates are stimulative. Resources, metals, energy - everything geared into that impulse is working.\n\nAnd tech? \n\nThe AI spending story is FALLING APART. \n\n$380 billion in capex last year. CFOs can't point to measurable returns. The Duke survey shows \"no change\" across productivity metrics at most companies deploying AI.\n\nYou're paying 30x earnings for companies spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure that doesn't show up in the numbers yet.\n\nOr you can buy energy at single-digit multiples with real cash flows and a structural tailwind.\n\nThe offshore drillers are where I see the most upside. \n\nValaris got taken out at 84 after I pitched it at 54 in December. Tidewater is next.\n\nBut if you want to keep it simple: long XLE, short XLK.\n\nOne trade. Captures the entire rotation.\n\nThis is the year active management finally matters. The dispersion is here. The setup is perfect.\n\n5 years of underperformance trained everyone to just buy the index and forget about it.\n\nThat's about to change.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.014183356270250247, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.014183356270250247, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.008597886503187713, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008597886503187713, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.01595637071915179, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.01595637071915179, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.011154429860540493, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.011154429860540493, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "ret_p1w": -0.005886147631737559, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.005886147631737559, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.005705308894380812, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.005705308894380812, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "ret_p1m": -0.07750128732021855, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07750128732021855, "alpha_spy_p1m": -8.213932533684964e-05, "alpha_c_p1m": -8.213932533684964e-05, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "ret_p3m": 0.31458906146084886, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.31458906146084886, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.22269879930446734, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.22269879930446734, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07750128732021855, "alpha_spy_stated": -8.213932533684964e-05, "alpha_c_stated": -8.213932533684964e-05, "price_path": [0.0138, 0.0243, 0.0267, 0.0305, 0.0381, 0.0454, 0.0481, 0.0532, 0.0478, 0.0175, 0.0076, 0.0095, -0.013, 0.0022, 0.0239, 0.0294, 0.035, 0.0375, 0.0375, 0.0391, 0.0345, 0.0312, 0.021, 0.021, 0.0233, 0.0256, 0.04, 0.0391, 0.0229, 0.0365, 0.041, 0.0388, 0.0262, 0.0316, 0.0327, 0.0327, 0.0059, 0.0199, 0.0274, 0.0289, 0.036, 0.0499, 0.0583, 0.0416, 0.0204, 0.0301, 0.0076, -0.0205, -0.0382, 0.0009, 0.0166, 0.0109, 0.0139, -0.0128, -0.0103, -0.0103, -0.0109, -0.0007, -0.0057, -0.0009, -0.0177, -0.0049, 0.0142, 0.0, -0.016, -0.0104, -0.0249, -0.0083, -0.0059, -0.0264, -0.0089, -0.0089, -0.0041, -0.0225, -0.0299, -0.0158, -0.0104, -0.0216, -0.0183, -0.0406, -0.0276, -0.0333, -0.0289, -0.0592, -0.0775, -0.0947, -0.0563, -0.0421, -0.0344, -0.0344, -0.0288, -0.0242, 0.0061, 0.0088, 0.0127, 0.0339, 0.0504, 0.0672, 0.0794, 0.096, 0.0975, 0.0984, 0.1225, 0.1065, 0.1376, 0.1401, 0.1208, 0.1298, 0.1325, 0.1494, 0.1506, 0.1761, 0.2073, 0.2049, 0.2463, 0.263, 0.244, 0.2557, 0.2745, 0.2515, 0.238, 0.2301, 0.2578, 0.2682, 0.2809, 0.2809, 0.3146, 0.3095, 0.3267, 0.3563, 0.39, 0.4074, 0.3933, 0.3716, 0.2802, 0.3078, 0.2836, 0.2542, 0.3009, 0.3122, 0.3618, 0.3238, 0.3193, 0.3593, 0.3593, 0.366, 0.3094, 0.3013, 0.3121, 0.2875, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026794447766196484", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-02-25T23:00:27+00:00", "symbol": "Tidewater", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Tidewater is next", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long energy (XLE, offshore drillers, Tidewater) / short tech (XLK) on rotation thesis: energy underweighted, AI capex unproductive, reflationary impulse driving resources.", "resolved_tickers": ["TDW"], "resolution_method": "exchange_ticker", "resolution_reason": "Tidewater Inc. trades as TDW on NYSE", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas Equipment & Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Schlumberger OUTPERFORMED Microsoft by 100%\n\nRead that again.\n\nIn the last 3 months, a boring oilfield services company doubled the returns of one of the most valuable companies on earth.\n\nWhy is no one talking about this?\n\nEnergy is 3% of the S&P 500. Tech is 35%.\n\nThat's not a weighting... \n\nThat's a setup.\n\nI watched Japan go from 66% of the non-US index to an afterthought. I watched tech go from nothing to everything twice.\n\nAnd I'm telling you right now:\n\nThis rotation is just getting started...\n\nIf you're running $250 billion at Fidelity, you can't overweight energy 10x. \n\nThe math doesn't work. A 3% sector means you maybe go to 5% if you're feeling aggressive.\n\nBut tech at 35%? You can buy 40 different names and still be underweight.\n\nSo institutional money piles into the same mega-caps. Microsoft. Apple. Nvidia. The same seven stocks that carried the market for years.\n\nMeanwhile energy gets ignored. Too small to matter. Too volatile to own. Too unfashionable to pitch.\n\nThat's EXACTLY when you want to be there.\n\nThe reflationary impulse is real. Interest rates are stimulative. Resources, metals, energy - everything geared into that impulse is working.\n\nAnd tech? \n\nThe AI spending story is FALLING APART. \n\n$380 billion in capex last year. CFOs can't point to measurable returns. The Duke survey shows \"no change\" across productivity metrics at most companies deploying AI.\n\nYou're paying 30x earnings for companies spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure that doesn't show up in the numbers yet.\n\nOr you can buy energy at single-digit multiples with real cash flows and a structural tailwind.\n\nThe offshore drillers are where I see the most upside. \n\nValaris got taken out at 84 after I pitched it at 54 in December. Tidewater is next.\n\nBut if you want to keep it simple: long XLE, short XLK.\n\nOne trade. Captures the entire rotation.\n\nThis is the year active management finally matters. The dispersion is here. The setup is perfect.\n\n5 years of underperformance trained everyone to just buy the index and forget about it.\n\nThat's about to change.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.012111872619684938, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.012111872619684938, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.006526402852622404, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.015381630297651161, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003269757677966223, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.023321705248799285, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023321705248799285, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.028123646107410583, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0075179233058928485, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": 0.015803781942906436, "ret_p1w": 0.03440275928292147, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03440275928292147, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.04599421580903984, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.008426366674832986, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": 0.025976392608088483, "ret_p1m": 0.06171886197470866, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06171886197470866, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.13930228862026406, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08212764431478381, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": 0.14384650628949247, "ret_p3m": 0.01455994388005788, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.01455994388005788, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.07733031827632364, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0431688699602677, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.05772881384032558, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06171886197470866, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.13930228862026406, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08212764431478381, "price_path": [-0.293, -0.296, -0.2301, -0.2333, -0.2574, -0.2649, -0.2502, -0.2635, -0.2558, -0.2821, -0.2723, -0.3198, -0.3148, -0.3493, -0.3512, -0.3396, -0.342, -0.3457, -0.3457, -0.3515, -0.3498, -0.3461, -0.3492, -0.3492, -0.327, -0.3305, -0.3137, -0.3181, -0.2694, -0.272, -0.2623, -0.2675, -0.2399, -0.248, -0.2598, -0.2598, -0.2685, -0.2323, -0.2361, -0.222, -0.2051, -0.1828, -0.2145, -0.1951, -0.1948, -0.1671, -0.158, -0.1304, -0.1836, -0.1451, -0.1288, -0.1162, -0.0831, -0.1292, -0.099, -0.099, -0.0993, -0.0795, -0.0484, -0.0545, 0.0168, 0.0235, 0.0121, 0.0, 0.0233, 0.0291, 0.1296, 0.0798, 0.0344, 0.0023, 0.0437, -0.0086, -0.0142, -0.0156, -0.011, -0.0432, -0.0189, -0.0302, -0.0429, -0.0661, -0.028, -0.0091, 0.0027, 0.0411, 0.0617, 0.0551, 0.0765, 0.0751, 0.0872, 0.0872, 0.0993, 0.1113, 0.1318, 0.1299, 0.1094, 0.1317, 0.0859, 0.0773, 0.0871, 0.0984, 0.0953, 0.0807, 0.1035, 0.1032, 0.1406, 0.1741, 0.1167, 0.1381, 0.151, 0.1319, 0.122, 0.0953, 0.053, 0.0032, 0.0457, 0.0479, 0.0501, 0.0448, 0.0533, 0.0611, 0.0991, 0.0808, 0.0896, 0.0463, 0.0216, 0.0216, 0.0146, -0.0325, -0.0374, -0.0531, -0.0393, -0.0348, -0.0465, -0.0429, -0.0661, -0.0421, -0.0575, -0.0537, -0.0437, -0.009, -0.042, -0.0853, -0.1276, -0.1667, -0.1667, -0.1451, -0.1443, -0.1676, -0.1527, -0.1326, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026794447766196484", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-02-25T23:00:27+00:00", "symbol": "MSFT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The AI spending story is FALLING APART. $380 billion in capex last year. CFOs can't point to measurable returns.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long energy (XLE, offshore drillers, Tidewater) / short tech (XLK) on rotation thesis: energy underweighted, AI capex unproductive, reflationary impulse driving resources.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSFT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Schlumberger OUTPERFORMED Microsoft by 100%\n\nRead that again.\n\nIn the last 3 months, a boring oilfield services company doubled the returns of one of the most valuable companies on earth.\n\nWhy is no one talking about this?\n\nEnergy is 3% of the S&P 500. Tech is 35%.\n\nThat's not a weighting... \n\nThat's a setup.\n\nI watched Japan go from 66% of the non-US index to an afterthought. I watched tech go from nothing to everything twice.\n\nAnd I'm telling you right now:\n\nThis rotation is just getting started...\n\nIf you're running $250 billion at Fidelity, you can't overweight energy 10x. \n\nThe math doesn't work. A 3% sector means you maybe go to 5% if you're feeling aggressive.\n\nBut tech at 35%? You can buy 40 different names and still be underweight.\n\nSo institutional money piles into the same mega-caps. Microsoft. Apple. Nvidia. The same seven stocks that carried the market for years.\n\nMeanwhile energy gets ignored. Too small to matter. Too volatile to own. Too unfashionable to pitch.\n\nThat's EXACTLY when you want to be there.\n\nThe reflationary impulse is real. Interest rates are stimulative. Resources, metals, energy - everything geared into that impulse is working.\n\nAnd tech? \n\nThe AI spending story is FALLING APART. \n\n$380 billion in capex last year. CFOs can't point to measurable returns. The Duke survey shows \"no change\" across productivity metrics at most companies deploying AI.\n\nYou're paying 30x earnings for companies spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure that doesn't show up in the numbers yet.\n\nOr you can buy energy at single-digit multiples with real cash flows and a structural tailwind.\n\nThe offshore drillers are where I see the most upside. \n\nValaris got taken out at 84 after I pitched it at 54 in December. Tidewater is next.\n\nBut if you want to keep it simple: long XLE, short XLK.\n\nOne trade. Captures the entire rotation.\n\nThis is the year active management finally matters. The dispersion is here. The setup is perfect.\n\n5 years of underperformance trained everyone to just buy the index and forget about it.\n\nThat's about to change.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0027880234291112194, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0027880234291112194, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.008373493196173754, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.008373493196173754, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.022353901512221608, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.022353901512221608, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01755196065361031, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01755196065361031, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "ret_p1w": 0.02230403516924717, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.02230403516924717, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03389549169536554, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.03389549169536554, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "ret_p1m": -0.1118939069571695, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1118939069571695, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0343104803116141, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0343104803116141, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "ret_p3m": 0.03786484652738409, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.03786484652738409, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.05402541562899743, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.05402541562899743, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1118939069571695, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0343104803116141, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0343104803116141, "price_path": [0.2089, 0.217, 0.1865, 0.1942, 0.2, 0.2195, 0.222, 0.1886, 0.2008, 0.1885, 0.1793, 0.1832, 0.1825, 0.202, 0.2068, 0.2044, 0.2092, 0.2121, 0.2121, 0.2113, 0.2098, 0.2107, 0.2011, 0.2011, 0.1746, 0.1744, 0.1884, 0.2008, 0.1874, 0.1904, 0.1851, 0.169, 0.1409, 0.1342, 0.1421, 0.1421, 0.1289, 0.103, 0.1205, 0.1572, 0.168, 0.1936, 0.1962, 0.0767, 0.0687, 0.0515, 0.0213, 0.0287, -0.0223, -0.0037, 0.0272, 0.0264, 0.0043, -0.002, -0.0033, -0.0033, -0.0143, -0.0075, -0.0081, -0.0112, -0.0429, -0.0317, -0.0028, 0.0, -0.0224, -0.0079, 0.0055, 0.0087, 0.0223, 0.018, 0.0191, 0.0101, 0.0079, 0.0003, -0.0154, -0.0044, -0.0058, -0.0247, -0.0316, -0.0494, -0.0466, -0.0721, -0.0764, -0.089, -0.1119, -0.1064, -0.0785, -0.0805, -0.0703, -0.0703, -0.0718, -0.0733, -0.0682, -0.0713, -0.0768, -0.0432, -0.0214, 0.0236, 0.0462, 0.0524, 0.0407, 0.0559, 0.0777, 0.0349, 0.057, 0.0575, 0.0685, 0.0566, 0.0151, 0.0317, 0.0296, 0.024, 0.0305, 0.0474, 0.0334, 0.0272, 0.0151, 0.0087, 0.0192, 0.0503, 0.0543, 0.0391, 0.0481, 0.0455, 0.0442, 0.0442, 0.0379, 0.0295, 0.0652, 0.1232, 0.1489, 0.1009, 0.0661, 0.0679, 0.0395, 0.0272, 0.0064, -0.0087, -0.0262, -0.0252, -0.0027, -0.0175, -0.0547, -0.0535, -0.0535, -0.0836, -0.0671, -0.0883, -0.1198, -0.0696, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026794447766196484", "ticker_idx": 4, "ts": "2026-02-25T23:00:27+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "buy energy at single-digit multiples with real cash flows and a structural tailwind", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Long energy (XLE, offshore drillers, Tidewater) / short tech (XLK) on rotation thesis: energy underweighted, AI capex unproductive, reflationary impulse driving resources.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE is the primary US energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Schlumberger OUTPERFORMED Microsoft by 100%\n\nRead that again.\n\nIn the last 3 months, a boring oilfield services company doubled the returns of one of the most valuable companies on earth.\n\nWhy is no one talking about this?\n\nEnergy is 3% of the S&P 500. Tech is 35%.\n\nThat's not a weighting... \n\nThat's a setup.\n\nI watched Japan go from 66% of the non-US index to an afterthought. I watched tech go from nothing to everything twice.\n\nAnd I'm telling you right now:\n\nThis rotation is just getting started...\n\nIf you're running $250 billion at Fidelity, you can't overweight energy 10x. \n\nThe math doesn't work. A 3% sector means you maybe go to 5% if you're feeling aggressive.\n\nBut tech at 35%? You can buy 40 different names and still be underweight.\n\nSo institutional money piles into the same mega-caps. Microsoft. Apple. Nvidia. The same seven stocks that carried the market for years.\n\nMeanwhile energy gets ignored. Too small to matter. Too volatile to own. Too unfashionable to pitch.\n\nThat's EXACTLY when you want to be there.\n\nThe reflationary impulse is real. Interest rates are stimulative. Resources, metals, energy - everything geared into that impulse is working.\n\nAnd tech? \n\nThe AI spending story is FALLING APART. \n\n$380 billion in capex last year. CFOs can't point to measurable returns. The Duke survey shows \"no change\" across productivity metrics at most companies deploying AI.\n\nYou're paying 30x earnings for companies spending hundreds of billions on infrastructure that doesn't show up in the numbers yet.\n\nOr you can buy energy at single-digit multiples with real cash flows and a structural tailwind.\n\nThe offshore drillers are where I see the most upside. \n\nValaris got taken out at 84 after I pitched it at 54 in December. Tidewater is next.\n\nBut if you want to keep it simple: long XLE, short XLK.\n\nOne trade. Captures the entire rotation.\n\nThis is the year active management finally matters. The dispersion is here. The setup is perfect.\n\n5 years of underperformance trained everyone to just buy the index and forget about it.\n\nThat's about to change.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.003269757677966223, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.003269757677966223, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.008855227445028757, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008855227445028757, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.015803781942906436, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.015803781942906436, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.020605722801517734, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.020605722801517734, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "ret_p1w": 0.025976392608088483, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.025976392608088483, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.037567849134206854, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.037567849134206854, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "ret_p1m": 0.14384650628949247, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.14384650628949247, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.22142993293504787, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.22142993293504787, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "ret_p3m": 0.05772881384032558, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.05772881384032558, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.03416144831605594, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.03416144831605594, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.14384650628949247, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.22142993293504787, "alpha_c_stated": 0.22142993293504787, "price_path": [-0.1776, -0.1882, -0.173, -0.1695, -0.1729, -0.1819, -0.1769, -0.1682, -0.1722, -0.1803, -0.186, -0.2109, -0.1934, -0.2051, -0.2051, -0.1969, -0.1916, -0.194, -0.194, -0.1971, -0.1895, -0.1833, -0.1878, -0.1878, -0.1708, -0.1482, -0.1709, -0.1802, -0.1544, -0.1522, -0.1582, -0.1462, -0.127, -0.1351, -0.1337, -0.1337, -0.1353, -0.1144, -0.1115, -0.1064, -0.1059, -0.0977, -0.0908, -0.0825, -0.0727, -0.0908, -0.0614, -0.0403, -0.0516, -0.0327, -0.0256, -0.0267, -0.0013, -0.0194, -0.0127, -0.0127, -0.0236, -0.0049, 0.0024, -0.0031, 0.0018, 0.0009, -0.0033, 0.0, 0.0158, 0.0361, 0.0267, 0.0207, 0.026, 0.0276, 0.0231, 0.01, 0.0351, 0.0447, 0.0481, 0.0518, 0.0629, 0.0614, 0.0783, 0.0774, 0.0903, 0.1124, 0.1075, 0.1248, 0.1438, 0.1329, 0.1201, 0.0782, 0.0833, 0.0833, 0.0912, 0.1, 0.0614, 0.0482, 0.0411, 0.0442, 0.023, 0.0195, 0.0345, 0.006, 0.0069, 0.0215, 0.0338, 0.0418, 0.0398, 0.038, 0.0552, 0.0793, 0.0906, 0.076, 0.0859, 0.087, 0.0422, 0.023, 0.0184, 0.0453, 0.0526, 0.0537, 0.0618, 0.0868, 0.1076, 0.1206, 0.0934, 0.0811, 0.0877, 0.0877, 0.0577, 0.042, 0.0413, 0.0292, 0.0477, 0.0597, 0.0735, 0.0742, 0.0544, 0.0665, 0.0493, 0.065, 0.0444, 0.0522, 0.0157, 0.0122, -0.0004, -0.0169, -0.0169, -0.0044, 0.0029, -0.0135, -0.0039, -0.0085, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2027388809931894808", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-27T14:22:14+00:00", "symbol": "gold miners", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold miners", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Favorite holding for next 3-5 years is gold miners; long-term bullish conviction.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GDX is the primary gold miners ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@ALPHABIGDOG2 Gold miners", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 George; What is your very favorite holding for the next 3 to 5 years??", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "ALPHABIGDOG2", "ret_m1d": -0.016833537723484504, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.016833537723484504, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.021658648478578124, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.021658648478578124, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00482511075509362, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00482511075509362, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.00431629847899484, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.00431629847899484, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.004884821465042766, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.004884821465042766, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0005685229860479257, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0005685229860479257, "ret_p1w": -0.12482734410915097, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.12482734410915097, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.10498735882133803, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.10498735882133803, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.019839985287812945, "bench_c_p1w": -0.019839985287812945, "ret_p1m": -0.25940949907069444, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.25940949907069444, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.183177954935967, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.183177954935967, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.07623154413472744, "bench_c_p1m": -0.07623154413472744, "ret_p3m": -0.2624308948336932, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.2624308948336932, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.35939957427984315, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.35939957427984315, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09696867944614995, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09696867944614995, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.3006, -0.3053, -0.3025, -0.3055, -0.3216, -0.2977, -0.2859, -0.2607, -0.2659, -0.2728, -0.273, -0.2644, -0.2658, -0.2476, -0.2215, -0.2207, -0.2257, -0.2257, -0.2119, -0.2589, -0.2503, -0.2596, -0.2596, -0.2599, -0.2364, -0.2046, -0.2139, -0.2098, -0.201, -0.1737, -0.1672, -0.1638, -0.1617, -0.1606, -0.1606, -0.1127, -0.1256, -0.0921, -0.0761, -0.0722, -0.0565, -0.0318, -0.0679, -0.1868, -0.1869, -0.1521, -0.148, -0.202, -0.1593, -0.1118, -0.1108, -0.0852, -0.1516, -0.1027, -0.1027, -0.1346, -0.1146, -0.1001, -0.0827, -0.0479, -0.0444, -0.0404, -0.0168, 0.0, -0.0043, -0.0915, -0.086, -0.121, -0.1248, -0.1157, -0.1076, -0.125, -0.1428, -0.1949, -0.1853, -0.1889, -0.2394, -0.2844, -0.3084, -0.2802, -0.2792, -0.2548, -0.2888, -0.2594, -0.2594, -0.2078, -0.1712, -0.1834, -0.1834, -0.1901, -0.1802, -0.1525, -0.151, -0.142, -0.1473, -0.1303, -0.156, -0.1569, -0.1338, -0.1443, -0.1973, -0.1844, -0.2042, -0.1856, -0.2007, -0.2357, -0.2557, -0.2378, -0.248, -0.2606, -0.2592, -0.202, -0.2082, -0.1834, -0.1575, -0.1614, -0.1693, -0.189, -0.2459, -0.2478, -0.2768, -0.2545, -0.2577, -0.2661, -0.2661, -0.236, -0.2624, -0.2474, -0.2275, -0.2517, -0.2399, -0.2662, -0.2541, -0.3194, -0.3209, -0.3302, -0.3628, -0.3291, -0.3091, -0.2639, -0.2469, -0.2718, -0.2877, -0.2877, -0.297, -0.3296, -0.3561, -0.3468, -0.3353, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2047260441722720329", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-23T10:25:00+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The wheels are coming off the robotaxi fraud. The $TSLA technology is unable to achieve the required level 4 FSD with just cameras. Back to the drawing board. $50 is fair value.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA; camera-only FSD cannot achieve Level 4, robotaxi thesis fails, fair value $50.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "zxx", "tweet_text": "https://t.co/HOwevmLr8x\n\n---\n\nThe wheels are coming off the robotaxi fraud. The $TSLA technology is unable to achieve the required level 4 FSD with just cameras. \nBack to the drawing board. \n$50 is fair value.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03689930562955901, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03689930562955901, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03300344593924298, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.026792256588431984, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.003895859690316028, "bench_c_m1d": 0.010107049041127025, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0069035282132037246, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0069035282132037246, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0008457810240278807, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0011651778525969547, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.007749309237231605, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00806870606580068, "ret_p1w": 0.021165588237912036, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.021165588237912036, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0067539132350464826, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.015984675397364256, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014411675002865554, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00518091284054778, "ret_p1m": 0.13991760776550355, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.1276872252746062, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.052494860901207696, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012230382490897362, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.13991760776550355, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08742274686429585, "alpha_c_stated": -0.1276872252746062, "price_path": [0.1645, 0.153, 0.1545, 0.1146, 0.1517, 0.1287, 0.1291, 0.0864, 0.0629, 0.1, 0.1167, 0.1378, 0.146, 0.116, 0.117, 0.117, 0.0988, 0.1006, 0.1017, 0.1019, 0.0699, 0.0954, 0.1169, 0.0933, 0.077, 0.0792, 0.0501, 0.0862, 0.0852, 0.0616, 0.0668, 0.0683, 0.0912, 0.057, 0.0468, 0.0584, 0.0684, 0.051, 0.0176, -0.0154, 0.0191, 0.0249, 0.0327, -0.0043, -0.0318, -0.0493, -0.0053, 0.0202, -0.0351, -0.0351, -0.0559, -0.0724, -0.0815, -0.0752, -0.0663, -0.057, -0.0255, 0.0488, 0.0406, 0.072, 0.0503, 0.034, 0.0369, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0132, 0.0062, -0.0025, 0.0212, 0.0458, 0.0503, 0.0419, 0.0669, 0.1019, 0.1462, 0.1907, 0.1598, 0.1915, 0.1862, 0.1298, 0.0971, 0.0813, 0.1165, 0.1181, 0.1399, 0.1399, 0.1602, 0.1783, 0.183, 0.1661, 0.1128, 0.1338, 0.1337, 0.1197, 0.0462, 0.0943, 0.0614, 0.0211, 0.068, 0.0875, 0.1002, 0.0828, 0.0606, 0.0716, 0.0716, 0.0838, 0.0211, 0.0048, 0.0037, 0.016, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2017701999521739144", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-31T20:50:18+00:00", "symbol": "BTC-USD", "kind": "crypto", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Nah, the crash is only getting started.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish Bitcoin; disagrees that the bulk of downside is done, says the crash is just beginning.", "resolved_tickers": ["BTC-USD"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "crypto_spy_fallback (SPY)", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@CStackamoto @saylor Nah, the crash is only getting started.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @saylor I get your intent to be petty based on  Saylor's own words. But the time for that kind of talk was months ago. The bulk of downside has already occurred. This your first major Bitcoin correction? It's a process.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "cachesensitive", "ret_m1d": 0.06913173159843944, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.06913173159843944, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.07407836352638886, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.07407836352638886, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "bench_c_m1d": -0.004946631927949419, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03882661934945053, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03882661934945053, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.030371233448277968, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.030371233448277968, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "bench_c_p1d": -0.008455385901172563, "ret_p1w": -0.10888446790272044, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.10888446790272044, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.10678500373637556, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.10678500373637556, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0020994641663448776, "ret_p1m": -0.13210420960266522, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.13210420960266522, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11041930534472533, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11041930534472533, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "bench_c_p1m": -0.021684904257939897, "ret_p3m": -0.030302233026037517, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.030302233026037517, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.06655809271399604, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.06655809271399604, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "bench_c_p3m": 0.036255859687958525, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.13210420960266522, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11041930534472533, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11041930534472533, "price_path": [0.3203, 0.2874, 0.3137, 0.347, 0.3089, 0.292, 0.267, 0.1996, 0.1704, 0.1812, 0.1624, 0.1009, 0.0814, 0.1218, 0.11, 0.1503, 0.1601, 0.1554, 0.097, 0.1609, 0.1886, 0.171, 0.136, 0.1519, 0.178, 0.1694, 0.1757, 0.1472, 0.0982, 0.1163, 0.0947, 0.0861, 0.1196, 0.1246, 0.1109, 0.1134, 0.1086, 0.1095, 0.1074, 0.1238, 0.1121, 0.1276, 0.143, 0.1931, 0.1911, 0.1604, 0.1568, 0.1503, 0.1589, 0.2114, 0.2318, 0.2143, 0.214, 0.1762, 0.1223, 0.1358, 0.1369, 0.1374, 0.1217, 0.1323, 0.1334, 0.0746, 0.0691, 0.0, -0.0388, -0.072, -0.2032, -0.1034, -0.1089, -0.1257, -0.1486, -0.1584, -0.1249, -0.1251, -0.1423, -0.1558, -0.1491, -0.1358, -0.1788, -0.1857, -0.1363, -0.1428, -0.1628, -0.126, -0.1321, -0.076, -0.0997, -0.1341, -0.1307, -0.1113, -0.1078, -0.1041, -0.0981, -0.0486, -0.0606, -0.0946, -0.1115, -0.1038, -0.0988, -0.1038, -0.0938, -0.1258, -0.157, -0.1525, -0.1329, -0.1348, -0.15, -0.1494, -0.1249, -0.0858, -0.0961, -0.088, -0.0726, -0.0534, -0.0573, -0.0494, -0.0449, -0.0198, -0.0358, -0.0297, -0.0062, -0.0053, -0.0157, -0.0168, -0.0297, -0.037, -0.0303, -0.0065, 0.0145, 0.0284, 0.0348, 0.0168, 0.019, 0.0386, 0.0227, 0.0075, 0.03, 0.0048, -0.022, -0.0246, -0.0156, -0.0146, -0.0407, -0.0179, -0.0364, -0.0552, -0.0655, -0.0676, -0.0936, -0.1523, -0.1865, -0.1892, -0.2258, -0.1982, -0.2166, -0.2191, -0.1922, -0.1925, -0.1576, -0.1663, -0.1814, -0.2007, -0.1925, -0.1873, -0.2036, -0.2249, -0.241, -0.2373, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2007889361631883718", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-04T18:58:23+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "STILL. WAY. TOO. HIGH. $TSLA", "tweet_type": "news_reaction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Endorses and amplifies HSBC Reduce on TSLA; author asserts $131 PT is still too high, implying further downside.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "STILL. WAY. TOO. HIGH. $TSLA", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "\"HSBC reiterates Reduce rating on Tesla stock amid delivery shortfall\"\n\nHSBC has a $131 price target on $TSLA. That's still way too high. \n\nhttps://t.co/IqG47eMSwd", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.030110491507516435, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.030110491507516435, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.023494349276786064, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01390099717591431, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006616142230730371, "bench_c_m1d": -0.016209494331602126, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.041424095947095174, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.041424095947095174, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.047371254246466266, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04782477394535756, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005947158299371091, "bench_c_p1d": 0.006400677998262383, "ret_p1w": -0.006000004189097741, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.006000004189097741, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.016818307689387968, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04107890076093401, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.010818303500290227, "bench_c_p1w": 0.03507889657183627, "ret_p1m": -0.06577815903071849, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07151376454117364, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0026318602303596617, "bench_c_p1m": 0.005735605510455155, "ret_p3m": -0.20165168016941248, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20165168016941248, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.15788542733060262, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.10246011414178635, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.04376625283880986, "bench_c_p3m": -0.09919156602762613, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06577815903071849, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.06841001926107815, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07151376454117364, "price_path": [-0.0287, -0.0357, -0.0845, -0.0349, -0.0497, -0.0366, -0.0507, -0.0274, -0.0094, -0.0201, -0.0281, -0.006, -0.0397, 0.0017, 0.0197, 0.0218, -0.0256, 0.0108, 0.037, -0.0164, 0.023, -0.0128, -0.049, -0.0143, -0.0267, -0.0466, -0.11, -0.1048, -0.0946, -0.1116, -0.1056, -0.125, -0.1341, -0.075, -0.0714, -0.0555, -0.0555, -0.0476, -0.0477, -0.0497, -0.0109, 0.0063, 0.0074, -0.0268, -0.0144, -0.0005, -0.0106, 0.0161, 0.0523, 0.0846, 0.0345, 0.0702, 0.0654, 0.0821, 0.075, 0.0747, 0.0747, 0.0521, 0.0176, 0.0061, -0.0043, -0.0043, -0.0301, 0.0, -0.0414, -0.0449, -0.0351, -0.0147, -0.006, -0.0099, -0.0276, -0.029, -0.0314, -0.0314, -0.0718, -0.0448, -0.0051, -0.0058, -0.0365, -0.046, -0.0447, -0.0777, -0.0471, -0.0661, -0.0658, -0.1011, -0.1206, -0.0898, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0518, -0.0766, -0.0758, -0.0758, -0.0909, -0.0893, -0.0885, -0.0882, -0.1148, -0.0936, -0.0759, -0.0954, -0.1088, -0.107, -0.1312, -0.1012, -0.1021, -0.1216, -0.1173, -0.1161, -0.0971, -0.1254, -0.1339, -0.1242, -0.116, -0.1304, -0.158, -0.1853, -0.1568, -0.152, -0.1455, -0.1761, -0.1989, -0.2134, -0.1769, -0.1559, -0.2017, -0.2017, -0.2189, -0.2325, -0.24, -0.2348, -0.2274, -0.2197, -0.1937, -0.1322, -0.139, -0.113, -0.131, -0.1445, -0.1421, -0.1726, -0.1669, -0.1616, -0.1675, -0.1746, -0.1551, -0.1347, -0.131, -0.1379, -0.1172, -0.0883, -0.0516, -0.0148, -0.0403, -0.0142, -0.0185, -0.0652, -0.0923, -0.1053, -0.0762, -0.0749, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.04, -0.025, -0.0212, -0.0352, -0.0792, -0.0618, -0.0619, -0.0735, -0.1343, -0.0946, -0.1217, -0.1552, -0.1163, -0.1002, -0.0897, -0.1041, -0.1224, -0.1133, -0.1133, -0.1032, -0.1551, -0.1686, -0.1695, -0.1593, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2038755164656414949", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-30T23:08:04+00:00", "symbol": "Gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "GOT GOLD?", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish on passive S&P 500 exposure as fast-tracked AI IPOs inflate index with money-losing firms; bullish gold as alternative.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Wall Street is rewriting the rules of the S&P 500.\n\nAnd that not to protect your retirement.\n\nBut to fast-track trillion-dollar money-losing AI companies into your portfolio.\n\nLet me explain what's about to happen.\n\nSpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public THIS YEAR.\n\nCombined expected market cap: roughly $3 TRILLION.\n\nSpaceX is targeting a June IPO at a $1.5-1.75 trillion valuation. It merged with xAI in February and plans to raise up to $50 billion - the largest IPO in American history.\n\nOpenAI is targeting Q4 2026. It just raised $110 billion at a $730 billion valuation from Amazon, SoftBank, and Nvidia. It projects a $14 billion LOSS this year. It doesn't expect to turn a profit until 2029 or 2030. It trades at 65 times revenue.\n\nAnthropic is valued at $380 billion. Also expected to list this year.\n\nNow here's where it gets dangerous for passive investors:\n\nFrom 2016 to 2025, the ENTIRE US IPO market raised $469 billion total. These 3 companies alone want to raise more than that in a single year.\n\nBut it gets WORSE.\n\nS&P Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and FTSE Russell are ALL considering fast-track rules that would shove these companies into major indexes within DAYS of going public - bypassing the standard 12 month seasoning period.\n\nRoughly $24 trillion in passive funds is tied to the S&P 500 alone. Those funds MUST buy whatever gets added.\n\nSo a company like OpenAI that's burning $14 billion a year, valued at 65x revenue, with no path to profitability for four years could become a mandatory holding in your 401k before it even reports a single quarterly earnings as a public company.\n\nNasdaq is proposing a \"Fast Entry\" rule: inclusion after just 15 trading days. SpaceX reportedly made early index inclusion a CONDITION of choosing Nasdaq over the NYSE.\n\nThe inmates are running the asylum.\n\nIndex providers aren't rewriting rules because these companies earned their place. They're rewriting rules because SpaceX is too big to ignore and too lucrative to lose to a competing exchange.\n\nIf all 10 of the largest venture-backed companies go public and get fast-tracked, their combined weight could reach 4.5% of the S&P 500 - more than the ENTIRE energy sector.\n\nThink about that.\n\nCompanies that collectively lose billions per year could outweigh every oil and gas producer in America inside the most important retirement index on Earth.\n\nThis is the passive indexation trap I've been warning about.\n\nYou don't get to choose. You don't get to vote. The index committee decides, the ETFs execute, and your retirement savings follow orders.\n\nWhen the index is being engineered to absorb trillion-dollar speculative bets, the smartest move is to stop blindly following it.\n\nOwn what you understand. Own what makes money. Own what's priced for reality, not fantasy.\n\nGOT GOLD?\n\n---\n\nJoin us on Substack if you want actionable value I'm not sharing on X:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03651031086169443, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03651031086169443, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.008263519030729749, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.008263519030729749, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.02824679183096468, "bench_c_m1d": -0.02824679183096468, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.017499822514495555, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.017499822514495555, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.009965331104192066, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.009965331104192066, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00753449141030349, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00753449141030349, "ret_p1w": 0.0035324757337775736, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0035324757337775736, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.010121819876664828, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.010121819876664828, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.013654295610442402, "bench_c_p1w": 0.013654295610442402, "ret_p1m": -0.02993331155043044, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.02993331155043044, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12409944635680736, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12409944635680736, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.09416613480637692, "bench_c_p1m": 0.09416613480637692, "ret_p3m": -0.13167864123480832, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13167864123480832, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.25550315001560775, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.25550315001560775, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.12382450878079942, "bench_c_p3m": 0.12382450878079942, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.079, -0.0744, -0.05, -0.0398, -0.0489, -0.0437, -0.0368, -0.0187, -0.0201, -0.0101, -0.0162, -0.0209, -0.0209, 0.0161, 0.0309, 0.05, 0.0644, 0.08, 0.1065, 0.1494, 0.1525, 0.0341, -0.0073, 0.0558, 0.055, 0.0269, 0.0585, 0.0854, 0.0746, 0.0868, 0.049, 0.0751, 0.0751, 0.0416, 0.065, 0.068, 0.0891, 0.1185, 0.103, 0.1002, 0.1097, 0.1242, 0.1388, 0.088, 0.0965, 0.0833, 0.1004, 0.0982, 0.1106, 0.1068, 0.085, 0.071, 0.07, 0.0673, 0.0336, -0.009, -0.0393, -0.061, -0.0608, -0.0325, -0.0689, -0.0362, -0.0365, 0.0, 0.0175, -0.002, -0.002, -0.0061, 0.0035, 0.0099, 0.0177, 0.0159, 0.0118, 0.0344, 0.0236, 0.0228, 0.0363, 0.0274, -0.0017, 0.0116, 0.0017, 0.0069, -0.0009, -0.0195, -0.0299, -0.0154, -0.0165, -0.0362, -0.0279, 0.0016, 0.0032, 0.0081, 0.0101, 0.0061, 0.0005, -0.0072, -0.0302, -0.0276, -0.0437, -0.03, -0.0309, -0.0383, -0.0383, -0.0379, -0.0507, -0.0407, -0.0306, -0.0442, -0.0426, -0.0521, -0.0442, -0.0791, -0.0767, -0.0918, -0.1295, -0.1022, -0.1017, -0.0784, -0.0759, -0.0969, -0.1003, -0.1003, -0.1062, -0.1231, -0.1496, -0.1414, -0.1317, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2027024432946966546", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-26T14:14:19+00:00", "symbol": "CRM", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Software bro, just say no to $CRM ENOUGH OF THE BULLSHIT ACCOUNTING GAMES SELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisive sell call on CRM citing accounting games, SBC headwinds, and margin/scale concerns.", "resolved_tickers": ["CRM"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Application", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Software bro, just say no to $CRM\n\nENOUGH OF THE BULLSHIT ACCOUNTING GAMES\n\nSELL IS NOT A FOUR LETTER WORD", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$CRM Look at the headwinds of stock based compensation, merger &amp; acquisition costs. \nThen look at margin projections and scale problems. \n@dougkass @SeabreezeLP  \n@jimcramer @SquawkCNBC @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @gnoble79 @KeithMcCullough @HedgeyeDJ @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/tmEKHX6wty", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0387025225652462, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0387025225652462, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.044287992332308734, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.044287992332308734, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.023462120310459134, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.023462120310459134, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.018660179451847836, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.018660179451847836, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "ret_p1w": 0.009625577912953487, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.009625577912953487, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.021217034439071858, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.021217034439071858, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "ret_p1m": -0.10106776078394109, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10106776078394109, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.023484334138385687, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.023484334138385687, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "ret_p3m": -0.09997551952579231, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.09997551952579231, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.19186578168217383, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.19186578168217383, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10106776078394109, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.023484334138385687, "alpha_c_stated": 0.023484334138385687, "price_path": [0.1654, 0.1748, 0.1948, 0.2386, 0.3042, 0.299, 0.3065, 0.3224, 0.3131, 0.3125, 0.2742, 0.2759, 0.292, 0.2927, 0.303, 0.3267, 0.3206, 0.3298, 0.3298, 0.3339, 0.3347, 0.3331, 0.3281, 0.3281, 0.2715, 0.2847, 0.318, 0.3341, 0.3061, 0.3032, 0.3004, 0.2085, 0.201, 0.1708, 0.1386, 0.1386, 0.1033, 0.1108, 0.1435, 0.1433, 0.15, 0.1457, 0.1428, 0.0732, 0.0643, 0.0569, -0.0155, -0.0002, -0.0476, -0.0407, -0.0273, -0.0302, -0.0725, -0.0704, -0.0489, -0.0489, -0.0761, -0.0586, -0.0711, -0.0717, -0.1068, -0.0704, -0.0387, 0.0, -0.0235, -0.0327, -0.0171, -0.032, 0.0096, 0.0132, -0.0034, -0.0229, -0.0268, -0.001, -0.0333, -0.0057, -0.0209, -0.0257, -0.0225, -0.0205, -0.0215, -0.0825, -0.0878, -0.0693, -0.1011, -0.0724, -0.0642, -0.0663, -0.0616, -0.0616, -0.0724, -0.0828, -0.1158, -0.1413, -0.1709, -0.1314, -0.139, -0.1074, -0.0892, -0.0846, -0.0638, -0.0596, -0.0461, -0.129, -0.1046, -0.0944, -0.0887, -0.0892, -0.1128, -0.0762, -0.0678, -0.0602, -0.0894, -0.0635, -0.0862, -0.108, -0.139, -0.1665, -0.1578, -0.128, -0.098, -0.0983, -0.0948, -0.1139, -0.095, -0.095, -0.1, -0.1079, -0.1146, -0.0396, 0.0534, 0.0094, -0.042, -0.0514, -0.0669, -0.0825, -0.1187, -0.141, -0.1613, -0.1641, -0.1709, -0.1852, -0.2189, -0.2352, -0.2352, -0.2436, -0.2269, -0.2303, -0.2432, -0.202, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2005875765280166387", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-30T05:37:04+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is very overvalued IMHO. Fair value is maybe $2. $6 looks way too high. $82 is only for narratives and carnival barkers. SELL!", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN: stock far exceeds fundamentals, fair value ~$2 vs current ~$82; bull case of asset-light software transformation unproven. Explicit SELL.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN is very overvalued IMHO. \n\nThe bulls want to believe that the company will somehow swiftly transform itself from being a lowly valued, asset heavy, low margin perennial loss making house flipper to a highly valued, asset light, high margin profitable software company. \n\nThe stock price has moved excessively ahead of any improvement in fundamentals as can be seen from the following valuation metrics:\n\nprice/book is very expensive:\n\n---\n\nas well as price/gross profit. \nWhile of course markets are a discounting mechanism, much is already in the price - in fact, too much. Fair value is maybe $2. $6 looks way too high; maybe in a few years if everything goes right $8.20 might be justifiable.\n\n$82 is only for narratives and carnival barkers. SELL!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.002935074714031427, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0004979560193262289, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": -0.002210323933803826, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.005696485054359934, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007374191673935826, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009086559588413423, "ret_p1w": 0.18664377521766307, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18664377521766307, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1796569302567066, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.18713496888487047, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0004911936672074013, "ret_p1m": -0.01369861671503625, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01369861671503625, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02594006424269446, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.016891042571478443, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0031924258564421937, "ret_p3m": -0.17808218059586356, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17808218059586356, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1035734291768895, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1672500425829061, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01083213801295746, "ret_p6m": -0.2671232708937953, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2671232708937953, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3400868031499439, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3771875656046678, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11006429471087253, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.01369861671503625, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02594006424269446, "alpha_c_stated": 0.016891042571478443, "price_path": [0.3716, 0.3887, 0.589, 0.5908, 0.4538, 0.3938, 0.2962, 0.2449, 0.3082, 0.2637, 0.2175, 0.226, 0.262, 0.1918, 0.1678, 0.2038, 0.3647, 0.3973, 0.3647, 0.3099, 0.2568, 0.3305, 0.2997, 0.1849, 0.238, 0.1233, 0.1233, 0.3647, 0.4521, 0.6045, 0.4658, 0.3904, 0.3425, 0.2877, 0.1455, 0.0548, 0.1558, 0.3168, 0.3253, 0.3322, 0.3322, 0.3185, 0.2226, 0.1969, 0.1884, 0.2979, 0.2243, 0.2072, 0.2688, 0.1986, 0.2072, 0.1233, 0.1079, 0.1524, 0.0479, 0.0753, 0.089, 0.0993, 0.0736, 0.0753, 0.0753, 0.0291, -0.0017, 0.0, -0.0017, -0.0017, 0.0394, 0.0822, 0.1866, 0.0479, 0.101, 0.2483, 0.2021, 0.1592, 0.137, 0.0788, 0.1421, 0.1421, 0.0942, 0.1096, 0.0993, 0.0291, 0.0051, -0.0051, -0.0137, -0.0445, -0.1182, -0.1747, -0.1216, -0.1438, -0.1952, -0.1644, -0.1541, -0.1969, -0.1849, -0.25, -0.2389, -0.2389, -0.2586, -0.2072, -0.2038, -0.1438, -0.1815, -0.125, -0.1473, -0.0736, -0.0719, -0.1353, -0.149, -0.1644, -0.113, -0.1438, -0.1301, -0.1421, -0.0976, -0.1712, -0.1524, -0.113, -0.0479, -0.0959, -0.1199, -0.1592, -0.1079, -0.113, -0.1267, -0.161, -0.1781, -0.2414, -0.1986, -0.2175, -0.1884, -0.1884, -0.2106, -0.2209, -0.2055, -0.262, -0.2603, -0.2534, -0.2277, -0.1747, -0.0976, -0.0942, -0.0839, -0.0668, -0.0702, -0.1062, -0.0565, -0.0771, -0.0616, -0.0445, -0.0788, -0.0685, -0.1216, -0.1045, -0.0651, -0.089, -0.1421, -0.1695, -0.1935, -0.2158, -0.2346, -0.25, -0.2671, -0.2637, -0.2466, -0.2175, -0.2243, -0.2243, -0.2329, -0.1866, -0.1318, -0.137, -0.0908, -0.0736, -0.1661, -0.1524, -0.2432, -0.262, -0.2568, -0.2329, -0.2346, -0.2397, -0.2106, -0.1866, -0.238, -0.2346, -0.2346, -0.2671, -0.2808, -0.2671]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2022648744165151208", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-14T12:26:54+00:00", "symbol": "ORCL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "flipped_to_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "As I have been warning about the AI trade…the numbers don't work", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on AI trade (ORCL, MSFT, NVDA); warns the numbers don't work, consistent with prior warnings.", "resolved_tickers": ["ORCL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Oh dear. As I have been warning about the AI trade…the numbers don’t work.\nLarry Ellison,  please call your office. \n$ORCK $MSFT $NVDA https://t.co/onxM6xsZtt", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.040072764462842025, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.040072764462842025, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.041683648348099456, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.041683648348099456, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.014288558512203009, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.014288558512203009, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.009250850961626256, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.009250850961626256, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "ret_p1w": -0.05085407347929849, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05085407347929849, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05744407751661729, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05744407751661729, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "ret_p1m": -0.00694945968647076, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.00694945968647076, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.024419060172096385, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.024419060172096385, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "ret_p3m": 0.2575430179311573, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.2575430179311573, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.17210884262561987, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.17210884262561987, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.00694945968647076, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.024419060172096385, "alpha_c_stated": -0.024419060172096385, "price_path": [0.3648, 0.2875, 0.2973, 0.2763, 0.3277, 0.3277, 0.3082, 0.3016, 0.3027, 0.3456, 0.3884, 0.4094, 0.4286, 0.435, 0.4446, 0.2881, 0.2306, 0.1978, 0.222, 0.156, 0.1662, 0.2435, 0.285, 0.2653, 0.2793, 0.2793, 0.2825, 0.2656, 0.2775, 0.2626, 0.2626, 0.2677, 0.2475, 0.255, 0.2491, 0.2285, 0.2893, 0.3293, 0.3138, 0.2575, 0.233, 0.2411, 0.2411, 0.1685, 0.1293, 0.1572, 0.1506, 0.1849, 0.1359, 0.1223, 0.0977, 0.0689, 0.0396, 0.0045, -0.0474, -0.1136, -0.0724, 0.017, 0.0384, 0.0207, 0.0163, 0.0401, 0.0401, 0.0, 0.0143, 0.0167, -0.0383, -0.0822, -0.0509, -0.0395, -0.0238, -0.0557, -0.0307, -0.0322, -0.0104, 0.0053, -0.0066, -0.0157, -0.0297, 0.0594, 0.0337, 0.0074, 0.013, 0.0047, -0.0069, 0.0101, -0.0279, 0.0024, -0.0447, -0.0516, -0.0725, -0.0929, -0.0985, -0.0446, -0.0568, -0.0493, -0.0493, -0.0548, -0.0701, -0.067, -0.1015, -0.1, 0.0142, 0.0623, 0.1067, 0.1623, 0.1409, 0.1574, 0.1808, 0.222, 0.1489, 0.1293, 0.1273, 0.0816, 0.0678, 0.0519, 0.1199, 0.175, 0.208, 0.2646, 0.2682, 0.2771, 0.2633, 0.2177, 0.2368, 0.2749, 0.2575, 0.2162, 0.1827, 0.2263, 0.2368, 0.2519, 0.2519, 0.2583, 0.2446, 0.3276, 0.4715, 0.6173, 0.594, 0.5012, 0.5403, 0.3926, 0.3805, 0.3414, 0.3117, 0.1999, 0.2001, 0.2555, 0.2274, 0.1961, 0.2011, 0.2011, 0.141, 0.0764, 0.0267, -0.0063, -0.032, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2022648744165151208", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-14T12:26:54+00:00", "symbol": "MSFT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "As I have been warning about the AI trade…the numbers don't work", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on AI trade (ORCL, MSFT, NVDA); warns the numbers don't work, consistent with prior warnings.", "resolved_tickers": ["MSFT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Oh dear. As I have been warning about the AI trade…the numbers don’t work.\nLarry Ellison,  please call your office. \n$ORCK $MSFT $NVDA https://t.co/onxM6xsZtt", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01123827138952449, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01123827138952449, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01284915527478192, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01284915527478192, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.006904255485954636, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.006904255485954636, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0018665479353778824, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0018665479353778824, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "ret_p1w": -0.017568169935503808, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.017568169935503808, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.024158173972822605, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.024158173972822605, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "ret_p1m": -0.010521947255402564, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.010521947255402564, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.02084657260316458, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.02084657260316458, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "ret_p3m": 0.0655723143271083, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.0655723143271083, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.019861860978429124, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.019861860978429124, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.010521947255402564, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.02084657260316458, "alpha_c_stated": -0.02084657260316458, "price_path": [0.2055, 0.1896, 0.1944, 0.2019, 0.2234, 0.2234, 0.2398, 0.2265, 0.2347, 0.2038, 0.2116, 0.2175, 0.2373, 0.2398, 0.2059, 0.2182, 0.2058, 0.1964, 0.2004, 0.1997, 0.2195, 0.2244, 0.2219, 0.2268, 0.2297, 0.2297, 0.2289, 0.2274, 0.2283, 0.2186, 0.2186, 0.1917, 0.1915, 0.2057, 0.2182, 0.2047, 0.2077, 0.2024, 0.186, 0.1575, 0.1507, 0.1587, 0.1587, 0.1453, 0.1191, 0.1368, 0.1741, 0.185, 0.211, 0.2136, 0.0923, 0.0842, 0.0668, 0.0362, 0.0437, -0.008, 0.0108, 0.0422, 0.0413, 0.0189, 0.0125, 0.0112, 0.0112, 0.0, 0.0069, 0.0063, 0.0032, -0.029, -0.0176, 0.0117, 0.0146, -0.0081, 0.0066, 0.0201, 0.0233, 0.0372, 0.0328, 0.034, 0.0248, 0.0225, 0.0149, -0.001, 0.0101, 0.0087, -0.0105, -0.0175, -0.0356, -0.0327, -0.0586, -0.0629, -0.0757, -0.099, -0.0934, -0.0651, -0.0671, -0.0568, -0.0568, -0.0583, -0.0598, -0.0546, -0.0578, -0.0634, -0.0293, -0.0072, 0.0385, 0.0614, 0.0678, 0.0558, 0.0712, 0.0934, 0.05, 0.0724, 0.0729, 0.0841, 0.072, 0.0299, 0.0467, 0.0446, 0.039, 0.0455, 0.0627, 0.0484, 0.0422, 0.0298, 0.0234, 0.034, 0.0656, 0.0697, 0.0542, 0.0634, 0.0607, 0.0594, 0.0594, 0.053, 0.0445, 0.0807, 0.1396, 0.1656, 0.117, 0.0816, 0.0834, 0.0546, 0.0421, 0.021, 0.0057, -0.012, -0.011, 0.0118, -0.0032, -0.041, -0.0397, -0.0397, -0.0703, -0.0536, -0.075, -0.107, -0.056, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2022648744165151208", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-02-14T12:26:54+00:00", "symbol": "NVDA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "As I have been warning about the AI trade…the numbers don't work", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on AI trade (ORCL, MSFT, NVDA); warns the numbers don't work, consistent with prior warnings.", "resolved_tickers": ["NVDA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Oh dear. As I have been warning about the AI trade…the numbers don’t work.\nLarry Ellison,  please call your office. \n$ORCK $MSFT $NVDA https://t.co/onxM6xsZtt", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.011677625642508516, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.011677625642508516, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.010066741757251085, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.012192929438846867, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0016108838852574303, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0005153037963383511, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.01627282163254007, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.01627282163254007, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.011235114081963316, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0039050811928820206, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.005037707550576753, "bench_c_p1d": 0.012367740439658048, "ret_p1w": 0.04260153705655223, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04260153705655223, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03601153301923343, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.014013297216297183, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006590004037318797, "bench_c_p1w": 0.028588239840255047, "ret_p1m": -0.02465395826875516, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02465395826875516, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.006714561589811985, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.009308388682797153, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.031368519858567145, "bench_c_p1m": -0.033962346951552314, "ret_p3m": 0.21820945110798529, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.21820945110798529, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.13277527580244786, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.14700861353646788, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.08543417530553743, "bench_c_p3m": 0.36521806464445317, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02465395826875516, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.006714561589811985, "alpha_c_stated": -0.009308388682797153, "price_path": [-0.0235, -0.033, -0.0131, -0.0387, -0.0255, -0.0255, -0.0431, -0.0274, -0.019, -0.0291, -0.0086, -0.0138, 0.0031, 0.0, -0.0064, -0.0218, -0.0538, -0.0469, -0.0392, -0.0759, -0.0586, -0.0215, -0.0069, 0.0229, 0.0197, 0.0197, 0.0301, 0.0176, 0.0139, 0.0083, 0.0083, 0.021, 0.017, 0.0123, 0.0224, 0.0004, -0.0006, -0.0002, 0.0045, -0.0099, 0.0112, 0.0068, 0.0068, -0.0373, -0.0089, -0.0007, 0.0146, 0.0081, 0.0192, 0.0354, 0.0408, 0.0333, 0.0035, -0.025, -0.0583, -0.0708, 0.0024, 0.0274, 0.0193, 0.0275, 0.0107, -0.0117, -0.0117, 0.0, 0.0163, 0.0158, 0.0262, 0.0356, 0.0426, 0.0573, -0.0004, -0.0421, -0.0135, -0.0266, -0.0104, -0.0088, -0.0387, -0.0125, -0.0011, 0.0058, -0.0098, -0.0255, -0.0094, -0.0164, -0.0247, -0.0346, -0.0663, -0.0504, -0.0528, -0.034, -0.0742, -0.0943, -0.107, -0.0571, -0.0498, -0.0409, -0.0409, -0.0396, -0.0371, -0.0156, -0.0057, 0.0198, 0.0235, 0.0624, 0.0752, 0.0724, 0.0904, 0.0925, 0.0807, 0.0948, 0.0794, 0.126, 0.1711, 0.1525, 0.1313, 0.079, 0.0729, 0.0731, 0.0624, 0.1236, 0.1435, 0.1635, 0.1864, 0.1937, 0.221, 0.2745, 0.2182, 0.202, 0.1927, 0.2082, 0.1868, 0.1642, 0.1642, 0.1617, 0.1494, 0.1584, 0.1415, 0.213, 0.2047, 0.1611, 0.1836, 0.1102, 0.1293, 0.1269, 0.0848, 0.1089, 0.1107, 0.15, 0.1227, 0.1077, 0.1404, 0.1404, 0.1294, 0.0828, 0.0772, 0.0595, 0.0421, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2049817554537852932", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-30T11:46:03+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA stock has done well only due to hype, not profits.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA and SpaceX: calls them financial disasters that fail to earn cost of capital, driven by hype not fundamentals; urges investors to flee both.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TRUTH.\n\nJust say no to narrative chasing financial illiteracy. \n\nJust say no to the endless hopium and broken promises of Elon Musk.\n\nJust say no to legal fraud. \n\n@elonmusk is the Ivar Kreuger of our time.\n\nHis companies have been a epic financial disaster as they have cumulatively failed to earn their cost of capital. $TSLA stock has done well only due to hype, not profits.\n\nRun, don’t walk from SpaceX.\n\nPeople need to rise up and call out this insanity.\n\nMAKE FUNDAMENTALS MATTER AGAIN.\n\nMAKE VALUATION COUNT AGAIN.\n\nMAKE THE TRUTH GREAT AGAIN.\n\nJUST SAY NO TO SPACEX.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 Every comment section under a negative post about Elon always smells so... acrid \n\nMaybe Enron could have gotten away with it had they built a cult", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.023137638489812096, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.023137638489812096, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.013286024907050997, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.010378879192195267, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.009851613582761098, "bench_c_m1d": -0.012758759297616828, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.024080922159745333, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.024080922159745333, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.021311826867394634, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.021715069347221228, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0027690952923506984, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002365852812524105, "ret_p1w": 0.07902943499259352, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.07902943499259352, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.06105147484879914, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.06610163545661774, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01797796014379438, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012927799535975781, "ret_p1m": 0.14191757191298504, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.14191757191298504, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.08929181887548232, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.12062470282085891, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.05262575303750272, "bench_c_p1m": 0.021292869092126132, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.14191757191298504, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.08929181887548232, "alpha_c_stated": -0.12062470282085891, "price_path": [0.1053, 0.1057, 0.0639, 0.0408, 0.0772, 0.0935, 0.1142, 0.1222, 0.0929, 0.0938, 0.0938, 0.076, 0.0778, 0.0788, 0.0791, 0.0477, 0.0727, 0.0937, 0.0706, 0.0547, 0.0568, 0.0283, 0.0637, 0.0627, 0.0396, 0.0447, 0.0461, 0.0686, 0.0351, 0.0251, 0.0365, 0.0462, 0.0292, -0.0035, -0.0358, -0.002, 0.0037, 0.0113, -0.0249, -0.0519, -0.069, -0.0259, -0.001, -0.0551, -0.0551, -0.0755, -0.0917, -0.1006, -0.0944, -0.0856, -0.0765, -0.0457, 0.027, 0.019, 0.0498, 0.0285, 0.0126, 0.0154, -0.0207, -0.014, -0.0078, -0.0147, -0.0231, 0.0, 0.0241, 0.0285, 0.0203, 0.0448, 0.079, 0.1224, 0.1661, 0.1358, 0.1668, 0.1616, 0.1064, 0.0743, 0.0589, 0.0934, 0.0949, 0.1163, 0.1163, 0.1362, 0.1539, 0.1585, 0.1419, 0.0897, 0.1103, 0.1102, 0.0965, 0.0246, 0.0716, 0.0394, -0.0001, 0.0459, 0.065, 0.0774, 0.0603, 0.0387, 0.0494, 0.0494, 0.0614, -0.0001, -0.016, -0.0171, -0.005, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2012538417444221306", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-17T14:52:04+00:00", "symbol": "Magnificent 7", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Trimming Mag 7 exposure and rotating into small and mid-caps where valuations actually make sense. The S&P 493 trades near decade lows relative to Big Tech, but earnings growth is only 5 points lower.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Trim Magnificent 7 / rotate into S&P 493 small/mid-caps: AI productivity payoff won't arrive until 2027-2030, causing multiple compression in Big Tech while cheaper names offer better value.", "resolved_tickers": ["AAPL", "MSFT", "NVDA", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "META", "TSLA"], "resolution_method": "basket", "resolution_reason": "Magnificent 7 = basket of the seven mega-cap US tech equities", "bench_c": "XLC", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Internet Content & Information'", "bench_c_industry": "Internet Content & Information", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "THE UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH about AI spending:\n\nUS tech giants spent $380 billion on AI‑driven infrastructure capex in 2025.\n\nBut most CFOs still can't point to measurable returns.\n\nThe latest Duke CFO Survey tells the story nobody wants to hear:\n\nWhen asked about AI's impact over the past 12 months, the vast majority of CFOs reported \"no change\" across the board.\n\nLabor productivity? No change.\nDecision-making speed? No change.\nCustomer satisfaction? No change.\nTime spent on high-value tasks? No change.\n\nThese aren't small companies experimenting with ChatGPT either.\n\n78% of large companies invested in AI during 2025.\n\nReal money. Real infrastructure. Real deployments.\n\nAnd most are getting... nothing measurable.\n\nThe spending is something we've never seen:\n\nMicrosoft committed $80 billion for fiscal 2025 on AI infrastructure.\n\nGoogle, Amazon, Meta - all racing to match it.\n\nTogether, the big four hyperscalers will be spending over $380 billion throughout 2025 - 2026.\n\nData centers. GPUs. Power plants. Cooling systems.\n\nReal assets. Real cash. Real bets on AI transformation.\n\nMeanwhile, in the real economy:\n\nGoldman Sachs surveyed their investment bankers about how clients are actually using AI:\n\n- 37% of companies are deploying AI\n- 47% using it to boost productivity/revenue\n- Only 11% using it to cut headcount\n\nSo deployment is happening.\n\nBut Goldman's economists found AI has had \"negligible\" impact on aggregate labor metrics so far.\n\nTheir forecast? Measurable GDP impact doesn't start until 2027.\n\nHere's where the AI gains ARE showing up:\n\nSince ChatGPT launched in November 2022:\n\n- Magnificent 7 earnings: Up 145%\n- Remaining S&P 493 earnings: Up 4%\n\nThe seven companies building AI infrastructure saw earnings explode.\n\nEveryone else got a rounding error.\n\nBut that performance is about infrastructure BUILD-OUT, not productivity PAYOFF.\n\nNvidia makes chips. Microsoft sells cloud compute. Meta runs models.\n\nThey're selling picks and shovels in a gold rush.\n\nThe companies trying to mine gold? Still digging holes.\n\nThe productivity paradox:\n\nUS productivity grew 2.3% in 2024. Some quarters hit 2.8%.\n\nThat's solid - well above the 1.2% average from the 2010s.\n\nBut here's the problem: that improvement started BEFORE the AI spending boom.\n\nGoldman estimates tech contributes 0.3-0.4 percentage points of the productivity acceleration.\n\nMeaningful. But not revolutionary.\n\nAnd certainly not enough to justify $380 billion in annual capex.\n\nThe implementation gap:\n\nAI doesn't just plug into existing workflows.\n\nIt requires:\n\n- Complete data infrastructure overhauls\n- Retraining entire workforces\n- Redesigning core processes\n- Managing change across every department\n\nMost companies bought the tools, bolted them on, and wondered why nothing changed.\n\nHere's the big math problem:\n\n$10 billion revenue company spends $100 million on AI.\n\nTo justify that at 20% hurdle rate: $20 million in annual benefits needed.\n\nIn reality that means:\n\n- Cut 100+ positions, OR\n- Add $20M revenue at zero marginal cost, OR\n- Slash 2% from operating expenses\n\nMost can't hit those numbers in year one. Many won't hit them in year two.\n\nBut the Magnificent 7 are priced for transformation happening now.\n\nHere's what's coming: \n\nGartner projects total AI infrastructure spending go up to $1.37 trillion in 2026, with hyperscaler capex alone exceeding $600 billion. \n\nBy 2027, we're looking at $1.75 trillion in AI infrastructure spending globally.\n\nThe spending isn't slowing down. \n\nBut if productivity doesn't materialize until 2027-2030 like Goldman projects, we're looking at years of multiple compression in Big Tech.\n\nSmart play for investors:\n\nTrimming Mag 7 exposure and rotating into small and mid-caps where valuations actually make sense. \n\nThe S&P 493 trades near decade lows relative to Big Tech, but earnings growth is only 5 points lower.\n\nCompanies spending trillions today are making 3-5 year bets priced for immediate returns.\n\nThat's not a trade I'm taking.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.031941686578848945, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.031941686578848945, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.011161876121596644, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01695977109263109, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0207798104572523, "bench_c_m1d": 0.014981915486217856, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.010756370471723144, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.010756370471723144, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0007847388099381548, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.0005334450173311821, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0115411092816613, "bench_c_p1d": 0.010222925454391962, "ret_p1w": 0.057552821055046346, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.057552821055046346, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.031120542099355344, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02732450030678714, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.026432278955691002, "bench_c_p1w": 0.030228320748259208, "ret_p1m": -0.016895534780874546, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.016895534780874546, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.029750080726073515, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.02676598753989642, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01285454594519897, "bench_c_p1m": 0.009870452759021875, "ret_p3m": 0.05774331421136287, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.05774331421136287, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.006827630433736527, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0047771908814913736, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.05091568377762634, "bench_c_p3m": 0.052966123329871495, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.035, 0.0419, 0.0672, 0.0818, 0.091, 0.0548, 0.0658, 0.077, 0.0538, 0.0605, 0.0376, 0.0301, 0.0577, 0.0551, 0.0429, 0.0174, 0.0198, 0.0157, -0.0031, 0.0026, -0.014, -0.0079, 0.0236, 0.0316, 0.0366, 0.0366, 0.044, 0.0435, 0.0495, 0.0475, 0.0545, 0.0582, 0.0509, 0.0521, 0.0521, 0.0456, 0.0377, 0.0388, 0.0473, 0.0255, 0.0457, 0.053, 0.0584, 0.0682, 0.0696, 0.0696, 0.0661, 0.0576, 0.0572, 0.05, 0.05, 0.0401, 0.0486, 0.0447, 0.0471, 0.0467, 0.054, 0.0535, 0.0489, 0.0324, 0.0343, 0.0319, 0.0319, 0.0, 0.0108, 0.0317, 0.0428, 0.0479, 0.0576, 0.058, 0.0563, 0.0529, 0.0518, 0.0356, 0.0184, -0.0001, 0.0057, 0.0169, 0.0126, 0.0075, -0.0157, -0.0269, -0.0269, -0.0244, -0.0169, -0.0189, -0.0042, -0.0189, -0.0074, 0.0079, -0.0074, -0.0224, -0.0178, -0.023, -0.0086, -0.0094, -0.0273, -0.0169, -0.0132, -0.0097, -0.0284, -0.0448, -0.0306, -0.0263, -0.041, -0.0513, -0.0709, -0.0559, -0.0682, -0.0609, -0.0913, -0.1162, -0.1177, -0.0778, -0.0652, -0.0718, -0.0718, -0.0694, -0.0709, -0.0463, -0.0316, -0.0246, -0.0155, 0.0142, 0.0394, 0.0405, 0.0577, 0.048, 0.0403, 0.0575, 0.0412, 0.0621, 0.0694, 0.0661, 0.0616, 0.0555, 0.0665, 0.0666, 0.0694, 0.0915, 0.0995, 0.1103, 0.1081, 0.1034, 0.1257, 0.1319, 0.1166, 0.109, 0.0947, 0.1092, 0.1096, 0.1084, 0.1084, 0.112, 0.1223, 0.1317, 0.127, 0.1156, 0.1061, 0.093, 0.1046, 0.0639, 0.0635, 0.0495, 0.0263, 0.0381, 0.0371, 0.0657, 0.0626, 0.0337, 0.0497, 0.0497, 0.0268, 0.0112, 0.0036, -0.0223, -0.0095, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2014337295063691734", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-22T14:00:10+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN is a short in my opinion. Do not buy.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish on OPEN despite bullish options structure in parent; explicit sell/avoid instruction.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@GammaEdges @RedDogT3 $OPEN is a short in my opinion. Do not buy.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@RedDogT3 $OPEN from an options structure standpoint call speculators are in control (bullish). The key strike to get over is the 7.00 which is highest speculation and sensitivity which will most likely be an area of stalling. The next 2 expiries contain a signiciant amount of the OI. The https://t.co/NMJrP3XbQt", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "GammaEdges", "ret_m1d": 0.009345785368615855, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.009345785368615855, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.014541902383265137, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0006200851056719081, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005196117014649282, "bench_c_m1d": 0.009965870474287764, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.06386290382239201, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.06386290382239201, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.06422563901136569, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.06653665327905423, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00036273518897367296, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002673749456662211, "ret_p1w": -0.13084114370802236, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.13084114370802236, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1381852622013986, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.13643168507213366, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.007344118493376239, "bench_c_p1w": 0.005590541364111301, "ret_p1m": -0.22118380987834263, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.22118380987834263, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.22183696477054304, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.2800073337509307, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0006531548922004138, "bench_c_p1m": 0.058823523872588046, "ret_p3m": -0.15109038247687345, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.15109038247687345, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.17579769846179305, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.22241406643166473, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.024707315984919598, "bench_c_p3m": 0.07132368395479127, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.22118380987834263, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.22183696477054304, "alpha_c_stated": 0.2800073337509307, "price_path": [0.271, 0.2414, 0.1916, 0.1433, 0.2103, 0.1822, 0.0779, 0.1262, 0.0218, 0.0218, 0.2414, 0.3209, 0.4595, 0.3333, 0.2648, 0.2212, 0.1713, 0.0421, -0.0405, 0.0514, 0.1978, 0.2056, 0.2118, 0.2118, 0.1994, 0.1121, 0.0888, 0.081, 0.1807, 0.1137, 0.0981, 0.1542, 0.0903, 0.0981, 0.0218, 0.0078, 0.0483, -0.0467, -0.0218, -0.0093, 0.0, -0.0234, -0.0218, -0.0218, -0.0639, -0.0919, -0.0903, -0.0919, -0.0919, -0.0545, -0.0156, 0.0794, -0.0467, 0.0016, 0.1355, 0.0935, 0.0545, 0.0343, -0.0187, 0.0389, 0.0389, -0.0047, 0.0093, 0.0, -0.0639, -0.0857, -0.095, -0.1028, -0.1308, -0.1978, -0.2492, -0.2009, -0.2212, -0.2679, -0.2399, -0.2305, -0.2695, -0.2586, -0.3178, -0.3076, -0.3076, -0.3255, -0.2788, -0.2757, -0.2212, -0.2555, -0.204, -0.2243, -0.1573, -0.1558, -0.2134, -0.2259, -0.2399, -0.1931, -0.2212, -0.2087, -0.2196, -0.1791, -0.2461, -0.229, -0.1931, -0.134, -0.1776, -0.1994, -0.2352, -0.1885, -0.1931, -0.2056, -0.2368, -0.2523, -0.31, -0.271, -0.2882, -0.2617, -0.2617, -0.2819, -0.2913, -0.2773, -0.3287, -0.3271, -0.3209, -0.2975, -0.2492, -0.1791, -0.176, -0.1667, -0.1511, -0.1542, -0.1869, -0.1417, -0.1604, -0.1464, -0.1308, -0.162, -0.1526, -0.2009, -0.1854, -0.1495, -0.1713, -0.2196, -0.2445, -0.2664, -0.2866, -0.3037, -0.3178, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3146, -0.2882, -0.2944, -0.2944, -0.3022, -0.2601, -0.2103, -0.215, -0.1729, -0.1573, -0.2414, -0.229, -0.3115, -0.3287, -0.324, -0.3022, -0.3037, -0.3084, -0.2819, -0.2601, -0.3069, -0.3037, -0.3037, -0.3333, -0.3458, -0.3333, -0.3302, -0.3193, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006393343123620241", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-31T15:53:44+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "At 16x falling revenues that is more than adequately reflected in the $TSLA price. SELL.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: valuation at 16x falling revenues is fully priced in; explicit sell recommendation.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Navi30374517 @SawyerMerritt At 16x falling revenues that is more than adequately reflected in the $TSLA price. SELL.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @SawyerMerritt Lol Tesla is pretty much the only company making a profit on their EV’s.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Navi30374517", "ret_m1d": 0.01047316428509637, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01047316428509637, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0030090104983158117, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0025174225368345127, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0074641537867805585, "bench_c_m1d": 0.007955741748261858, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.040714216643453205, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.040714216643453205, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05194720436462197, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05319222418563052, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.011232987721168763, "bench_c_p1w": 0.012478007542177316, "ret_p1m": -0.07373477624322045, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07373477624322045, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09150808778807173, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08864131178554058, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01777331154485129, "bench_c_p1m": 0.014906535542320132, "ret_p3m": -0.20999733653175723, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20999733653175723, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13927921912571917, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09662533842567289, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07071811740603806, "bench_c_p3m": -0.11337199810608434, "ret_p6m": -0.1658810057391803, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1658810057391803, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.24841599443807738, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.11893365542821799, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.08253498869889708, "bench_c_p6m": -0.04694735031096231, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07373477624322045, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09150808778807173, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08864131178554058, "price_path": [-0.0442, 0.0078, -0.037, -0.0245, -0.0315, -0.0806, -0.0307, -0.0455, -0.0324, -0.0466, -0.0231, -0.0051, -0.0158, -0.0239, -0.0016, -0.0356, 0.006, 0.0241, 0.0262, -0.0214, 0.0152, 0.0415, -0.0121, 0.0275, -0.0085, -0.0449, -0.01, -0.0225, -0.0425, -0.1061, -0.1009, -0.0907, -0.1078, -0.1017, -0.1212, -0.1304, -0.071, -0.0674, -0.0515, -0.0515, -0.0435, -0.0435, -0.0455, -0.0066, 0.0107, 0.0117, -0.0225, -0.0101, 0.0038, -0.0063, 0.0205, 0.0569, 0.0893, 0.039, 0.0748, 0.07, 0.0867, 0.0797, 0.0793, 0.0793, 0.0566, 0.0221, 0.0105, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0259, 0.0043, -0.0373, -0.0407, -0.031, -0.0105, -0.0017, -0.0056, -0.0234, -0.0248, -0.0272, -0.0272, -0.0678, -0.0406, -0.0008, -0.0015, -0.0323, -0.0418, -0.0406, -0.0737, -0.0429, -0.0621, -0.0617, -0.0972, -0.1168, -0.0859, -0.072, -0.0545, -0.0477, -0.0726, -0.0718, -0.0718, -0.0869, -0.0854, -0.0845, -0.0843, -0.1109, -0.0897, -0.0719, -0.0915, -0.105, -0.1032, -0.1274, -0.0973, -0.0982, -0.1178, -0.1135, -0.1122, -0.0932, -0.1217, -0.1301, -0.1204, -0.1122, -0.1266, -0.1544, -0.1818, -0.1531, -0.1483, -0.1418, -0.1726, -0.1954, -0.21, -0.1734, -0.1522, -0.1982, -0.1982, -0.2155, -0.2292, -0.2367, -0.2315, -0.2241, -0.2164, -0.1902, -0.1285, -0.1352, -0.1092, -0.1272, -0.1408, -0.1383, -0.169, -0.1633, -0.158, -0.1639, -0.171, -0.1514, -0.131, -0.1272, -0.1342, -0.1134, -0.0843, -0.0475, -0.0105, -0.0362, -0.0099, -0.0143, -0.0611, -0.0883, -0.1014, -0.0722, -0.0709, -0.0527, -0.0527, -0.0359, -0.0208, -0.0169, -0.031, -0.0752, -0.0578, -0.0579, -0.0695, -0.1306, -0.0907, -0.1179, -0.1515, -0.1124, -0.0963, -0.0858, -0.1002, -0.1186, -0.1095, -0.1095, -0.0993, -0.1514, -0.165, -0.1659]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2008607621549617320", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-06T18:32:29+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Yes I am short.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Confirms holding a short position in TSLA.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@andy_guffey Yes I am short.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 So George — With such a drastic valuation difference -  are you short TSLA stock?  Is your hard-earned money on the short side, or are you arm-chair quarterbacking?   It would seem to be a no-brainer if you truly believe.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "andy_guffey", "ret_m1d": 0.04321420533517695, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04321420533517695, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04912620404237067, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.049574175214165184, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005911998707193722, "bench_c_m1d": -0.006359969878988236, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0035799792672750463, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0035799792672750463, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0003565669860768894, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0021758547233956538, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.003223412281198157, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0014041245438793926, "ret_p1w": 0.03288992293282278, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03288992293282278, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.030056765006996278, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.006954522152161635, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0028331579258265016, "bench_c_p1w": 0.025935400780661144, "ret_p1m": -0.06224589389629398, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06224589389629398, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.054122306018374755, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05423397557226939, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.008123587877919225, "bench_c_p1m": -0.008011918324024592, "ret_p3m": -0.16715169194725987, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.16715169194725987, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.117732186431458, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.06223101141283083, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.049419505515801876, "bench_c_p3m": -0.10492068053442904, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06224589389629398, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.054122306018374755, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05423397557226939, "price_path": [0.006, -0.045, 0.0068, -0.0086, 0.0051, -0.0097, 0.0147, 0.0334, 0.0223, 0.0139, 0.037, 0.0018, 0.0449, 0.0637, 0.0659, 0.0165, 0.0545, 0.0818, 0.0261, 0.0672, 0.0299, -0.0079, 0.0283, 0.0154, -0.0055, -0.0715, -0.0661, -0.0555, -0.0732, -0.0669, -0.0871, -0.0967, -0.0351, -0.0313, -0.0147, -0.0147, -0.0064, -0.0065, -0.0086, 0.0318, 0.0498, 0.0509, 0.0153, 0.0282, 0.0427, 0.0322, 0.0601, 0.0978, 0.1315, 0.0792, 0.1164, 0.1114, 0.1288, 0.1215, 0.1211, 0.1211, 0.0975, 0.0616, 0.0496, 0.0387, 0.0387, 0.0118, 0.0432, 0.0, -0.0036, 0.0066, 0.0278, 0.037, 0.0329, 0.0144, 0.013, 0.0105, 0.0105, -0.0317, -0.0035, 0.0379, 0.0372, 0.0052, -0.0048, -0.0035, -0.0379, -0.0059, -0.0258, -0.0254, -0.0622, -0.0826, -0.0505, -0.0361, -0.0179, -0.0108, -0.0367, -0.0358, -0.0358, -0.0516, -0.05, -0.0491, -0.0488, -0.0765, -0.0545, -0.0359, -0.0563, -0.0703, -0.0685, -0.0936, -0.0624, -0.0633, -0.0837, -0.0792, -0.0779, -0.0581, -0.0877, -0.0965, -0.0864, -0.0778, -0.0928, -0.1216, -0.1501, -0.1204, -0.1153, -0.1086, -0.1405, -0.1643, -0.1794, -0.1414, -0.1194, -0.1672, -0.1672, -0.1851, -0.1993, -0.2072, -0.2017, -0.194, -0.186, -0.1588, -0.0947, -0.1018, -0.0747, -0.0934, -0.1075, -0.105, -0.1368, -0.1309, -0.1254, -0.1315, -0.139, -0.1186, -0.0973, -0.0934, -0.1007, -0.0791, -0.0489, -0.0106, 0.0278, 0.0011, 0.0284, 0.0239, -0.0248, -0.0531, -0.0666, -0.0363, -0.0349, -0.0161, -0.0161, 0.0015, 0.0171, 0.0211, 0.0065, -0.0394, -0.0213, -0.0214, -0.0335, -0.0969, -0.0555, -0.0838, -0.1186, -0.0781, -0.0613, -0.0504, -0.0654, -0.0845, -0.075, -0.075, -0.0645, -0.1186, -0.1326, -0.1336, -0.123, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2036546449421537328", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-24T20:51:25+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I think this stock goes down 90% from here. Not because Tesla is worthless... A $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA with 90% downside target ($37) on declining deliveries, brand freefall, margin compression, BYD competition, and unjustifiable 365x earnings valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Tesla is a $1.3 trillion company that sold fewer cars this year than last year. \n\nAnd fewer last year than the year before.\n\nThat should tell you everything you need to know.\n\n2 consecutive years of declining deliveries. Down 9% in 2025 to 1.63 million vehicles. The steepest annual drop in the company's history. \n\nAnd 2026 is starting even worse - US sales down 17% in January, Europe down 44% across major markets.\n\nFrance down 42%. Netherlands down 67%. Norway down 88%.\n\nBYD passed them as the global EV leader. In the UK, BYD outsold Tesla 2 to 1 last month.\n\nThe brand is in FREEFALL. \n\nBrand Finance measured a 36% collapse in Tesla's brand value last year - down to $27.6 billion, less than half its 2023 peak. In California, their most important US market, share dropped from 11.6% to 9.9%.\n\nAnd the stock trades at 365 times trailing earnings.\n\nLet me say that differently:\n\nTesla earned $3.8 billion last year. The market is valuing those earnings at $1.3 trillion. You are paying $365 for every dollar this company earns.\n\nThe bull case has completely abandoned the car business. It's all robotaxis and Optimus robots now. They discontinued the Model S and Model X. They told investors on the last earnings call to stop focusing on vehicle deliveries and start thinking about \"transportation as a service.\"\n\nSo in other words: please ignore the business we actually have and value us on the business we MIGHT have someday.\n\nTrust me, every time management tells you to look over there instead of over here... LOOK OVER HERE.\n\nThe car business is deteriorating. Margins are compressing. Competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and a dozen Chinese manufacturers is intensifying quarter by quarter. The $7,500 federal EV tax credit is gone, which effectively raised the price of every Tesla overnight.\n\nAnd instead of addressing any of that, they're doubling capex to $20 billion this year - almost entirely directed at AI and autonomous driving infrastructure.\n\nSo you have a company with shrinking revenue, shrinking deliveries, a damaged brand, and intensifying competition pouring $20 billion into a technology that hasn't been proven at commercial scale.\n\nOn 365 times earnings.\n\nEven if you give them the most generous robotaxi assumptions imaginable (full regulatory approval, nationwide deployment, dominant market share) you still can't justify this valuation. The present value of that optionality doesn't come close to $1.3 trillion when the core business is going backwards.\n\nI think this stock goes down 90% from here.\n\nNot because Tesla is worthless. They'll sell cars. The energy storage business has potential. But the equity is priced for a future that isn't coming on the timeline the market expects.\n\nA $37 stock. That's where the math takes you when you strip out the narrative and price what actually exists.\n\nI know that sounds extreme. But 45 years of doing this has taught me something:\n\nWhen you can see the seams on the fastball, you SWING.\n\nI can see the seams.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0075657814104900245, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0075657814104900245, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0020239759207449914, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.001916818898524797, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005541805489745033, "bench_c_m1d": -0.009482600309014821, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.03585963575004292, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.03585963575004292, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.018000905766698883, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01870074991570969, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.017858729983344035, "bench_c_p1d": -0.017158885834333226, "ret_p1w": -0.012151839080368876, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.012151839080368876, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.009746328056476461, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0037530000263023, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.002405511023892415, "bench_c_p1w": -0.008398839054066576, "ret_p1m": -0.031688069955980946, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.031688069955980946, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.11029415178099433, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09499510895012242, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.07860608182501339, "bench_c_p1m": 0.06330703899414147, "ret_p3m": 0.049488210861078796, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.049488210861078796, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.08675575975628425, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.009399400154086468, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.13624397061736304, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04008881070699233, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.031688069955980946, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.11029415178099433, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09499510895012242, "price_path": [0.2312, 0.1909, 0.1774, 0.1652, 0.1652, 0.135, 0.1703, 0.1218, 0.1178, 0.1292, 0.153, 0.1633, 0.1587, 0.138, 0.1363, 0.1336, 0.1336, 0.0863, 0.1179, 0.1643, 0.1635, 0.1276, 0.1165, 0.1179, 0.0793, 0.1152, 0.0929, 0.0933, 0.052, 0.0292, 0.0652, 0.0813, 0.1017, 0.1097, 0.0806, 0.0816, 0.0816, 0.0639, 0.0657, 0.0667, 0.067, 0.036, 0.0607, 0.0815, 0.0586, 0.0429, 0.045, 0.0168, 0.0518, 0.0508, 0.0279, 0.033, 0.0344, 0.0567, 0.0235, 0.0136, 0.0249, 0.0345, 0.0177, -0.0146, -0.0466, -0.0132, -0.0076, 0.0, -0.0359, -0.0625, -0.0795, -0.0368, -0.0122, -0.0657, -0.0657, -0.0858, -0.1018, -0.1106, -0.1045, -0.0959, -0.0869, -0.0564, 0.0155, 0.0076, 0.038, 0.017, 0.0012, 0.004, -0.0317, -0.025, -0.0189, -0.0257, -0.0341, -0.0112, 0.0126, 0.017, 0.0089, 0.0331, 0.067, 0.1099, 0.153, 0.1231, 0.1537, 0.1486, 0.094, 0.0623, 0.0471, 0.0811, 0.0827, 0.1038, 0.1038, 0.1234, 0.141, 0.1455, 0.1291, 0.0775, 0.0979, 0.0978, 0.0842, 0.0131, 0.0596, 0.0278, -0.0113, 0.0342, 0.0531, 0.0653, 0.0485, 0.027, 0.0377, 0.0377, 0.0495, -0.0112, -0.027, -0.0281, -0.0162, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2018823866962108727", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-03T23:08:12+00:00", "symbol": "NVDA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SHORT AI. SHORT $NVDA.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisively short NVDA; claims Wall Street is lying and AI will be an epic disaster.", "resolved_tickers": ["NVDA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I AM CALLING IT RIGHT HERE, RIGHT NOW. WALL STREET IS LYING TO YOU. AI WILL BE AN EPIC DISASTER.\nSHORT AI. SHORT $NVDA.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "https://t.co/4ewkS4t0v0", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03530614876059146, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03530614876059146, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.030438717911543955, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.005686480191996912, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "bench_c_m1d": 0.04099262895258837, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.013261403233346236, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.013261403233346236, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0007721191730220012, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010774670295873867, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "bench_c_p1d": -0.002486732937472369, "ret_p1w": 0.09105001749722197, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.09105001749722197, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.08264126311438358, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.005295316937685035, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "bench_c_p1w": 0.08575470055953693, "ret_p1m": 0.0525286774643674, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0525286774643674, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0596404756435317, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.017635170650076804, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0348935068142906, "ret_p3m": 0.13950697301568793, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.13950697301568793, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.09027736267573494, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.18709902436520998, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "bench_c_p3m": 0.3266059973808979, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.0525286774643674, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0596404756435317, "alpha_c_stated": -0.017635170650076804, "price_path": [0.0801, 0.1427, 0.1088, 0.1125, 0.0727, 0.0917, 0.0712, 0.0411, 0.0707, 0.037, 0.0269, 0.0479, 0.0208, 0.0348, 0.0348, 0.0161, 0.0328, 0.0417, 0.0309, 0.0528, 0.0472, 0.0652, 0.0619, 0.0551, 0.0387, 0.0048, 0.0121, 0.0203, -0.0187, -0.0003, 0.039, 0.0545, 0.0862, 0.0828, 0.0828, 0.0938, 0.0805, 0.0766, 0.0707, 0.0707, 0.0842, 0.08, 0.0749, 0.0857, 0.0623, 0.0613, 0.0617, 0.0667, 0.0514, 0.0738, 0.0691, 0.0691, 0.0223, 0.0524, 0.0611, 0.0774, 0.0705, 0.0823, 0.0995, 0.1052, 0.0973, 0.0656, 0.0353, 0.0, -0.0133, 0.0644, 0.091, 0.0824, 0.0911, 0.0732, 0.0495, 0.0495, 0.0619, 0.0792, 0.0787, 0.0897, 0.0997, 0.1071, 0.1227, 0.0614, 0.0172, 0.0476, 0.0336, 0.0508, 0.0525, 0.0208, 0.0486, 0.0607, 0.068, 0.0514, 0.0348, 0.0519, 0.0445, 0.0357, 0.0251, -0.0085, 0.0084, 0.0059, 0.0258, -0.0169, -0.0382, -0.0517, 0.0013, 0.009, 0.0184, 0.0184, 0.0199, 0.0225, 0.0454, 0.0559, 0.083, 0.0869, 0.1282, 0.1417, 0.1388, 0.1579, 0.1601, 0.1475, 0.1626, 0.1462, 0.1957, 0.2436, 0.2238, 0.2013, 0.1458, 0.1393, 0.1395, 0.1281, 0.1932, 0.2143, 0.2355, 0.2598, 0.2675, 0.2965, 0.3534, 0.2936, 0.2764, 0.2666, 0.283, 0.2602, 0.2362, 0.2362, 0.2335, 0.2206, 0.23, 0.2122, 0.2881, 0.2792, 0.2329, 0.2568, 0.1789, 0.1992, 0.1966, 0.152, 0.1776, 0.1794, 0.2211, 0.1922, 0.1763, 0.211, 0.211, 0.1993, 0.1498, 0.1438, 0.1251, 0.1066, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2051046890033365234", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-03T21:10:59+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The math always wins. ALWAYS. It just takes longer when the con is this good.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA: calls it the greatest con in capital markets history, FSD overhyped, milestones meaningless, CEO award engineered for wealth transfer; math will eventually win.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Tesla is the most successful CON in the history of capital markets.\n\nNot because the cars are bad.\n\nBut because the entire business is engineered to impress on first glance and collapse under scrutiny. And the culture around it has made facts completely IRRELEVANT.\n\nI've never seen a company where the gap between what is promised and what is delivered is this wide, for this long, with this little accountability.\n\nTesla's Full Self-Driving system is marketed as autonomy. But it is not autonomy. It is a camera-only system running probabilistic inference. \n\nThe car is making statistical guesses about what it sees, thousands of times per second, with no redundancy when those guesses are wrong. \n\nProbabilistic inference controlling a two-ton vehicle at highway speed with your family inside.\n\nNHTSA has two open investigations covering 3.2 million Tesla vehicles. One was escalated to a formal Engineering Analysis in March after 9 crashes, including a fatality, where the system FAILED to detect sun glare, fog, and dust. The cameras went blind and the car kept driving.\n\nIn Austin, Tesla's robotaxi fleet has reported 15 crashes across roughly 800,000 miles. One crash every 57,000 miles. \n\nThe average American driver has a police-reported crash every 500,000 miles. Tesla's robotaxis crash at roughly 4x the human rate, WITH a safety monitor sitting in the car whose only job is to prevent crashes.\n\nWaymo operates over 2,500 fully driverless vehicles across multiple cities with no human backup and maintains a crash rate 85% below human drivers across 127 million autonomous miles. Tesla has ONE unsupervised vehicle in a tiny section of Austin.\n\nBut here's what really makes Tesla different from every overvalued company I've ever analyzed:\n\nThe facts do not matter to the people who own this stock.\n\nEvery missed deadline, every broken promise gets filtered through the same response: attack the messenger. \n\nCall them a short seller. Call them a hater. Anything to avoid looking at the actual numbers.\n\nIt's an online ecosystem that has made itself completely immune to facts. And Musk baked that dynamic into the culture from the beginning. \n\nEvery time the fundamentals deteriorate, the faithful don't sell. They double down. \n\nWhen your shareholder base treats every dip as a buying opportunity regardless of the data, the stock becomes untethered from reality entirely.\n\nThat's literally a religion with a ticker symbol.\n\nI highly suggest you read Edward Niedermeyer's book Ludicrous on this.\n\nAnd now it even gets WORSE...\n\nCapeFearAdvisors published a piece this week that should be required reading. \n\nTesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award contains a change-of-control provision:\n\nIn the event of a change of control, ALL operational milestones are disregarded. \n\nNo million robotaxis, Optimus robots, or $400 billion EBITDA. \nNONE of it. \n\nSo if SpaceX acquires Tesla at $8.5 trillion, every tranche of Musk's 423 million share award vests immediately. A single acquisition at that price triggers the full vesting of both plans at once, with no way to claw them back.\n\nThe milestones everyone argues about are just a distraction. The mechanism is the change-of-control language buried in the SEC filing.\n\nThis is about engineering the largest personal wealth transfer in modern financial history and using the narrative machine to keep the price elevated long enough to execute it.\n\nI've seen every bust of the last four decades.\n\nBut this one is different because the cult of personality is stronger than anything I've witnessed. The movement around this stock cannot be touched by facts, and that is what makes it so dangerous.\n\nBut the math always wins. ALWAYS.\n\nIt just takes longer when the con is this good.\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.004305628899541669, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.004305628899541669, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0079824908334315, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.012035750463052719, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.00367686193388983, "bench_c_m1d": 0.00773012156351105, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007999833304410453, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.007999833304410453, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01602206202835288, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010972927010923783, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.008022228723942426, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00297309370651333, "ret_p1w": 0.13372904875908187, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.13372904875908187, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.10407765392847201, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.11971272015413836, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.029651394830609856, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014016328604943507, "ret_p1m": 0.07956480011146216, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.07956480011146216, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.021682540657091298, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.08066914957683069, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.057882259454370866, "bench_c_p1m": -0.001104349465368526, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.07956480011146216, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.021682540657091298, "alpha_c_stated": -0.08066914957683069, "price_path": [0.0344, 0.012, 0.0474, 0.0632, 0.0833, 0.0911, 0.0626, 0.0635, 0.0635, 0.0462, 0.0479, 0.0489, 0.0492, 0.0186, 0.043, 0.0634, 0.0409, 0.0255, 0.0275, -0.0002, 0.0342, 0.0332, 0.0108, 0.0157, 0.0171, 0.039, 0.0064, -0.0033, 0.0078, 0.0172, 0.0007, -0.0311, -0.0625, -0.0297, -0.0242, -0.0167, -0.052, -0.0782, -0.0949, -0.0529, -0.0287, -0.0813, -0.0813, -0.1011, -0.1168, -0.1255, -0.1195, -0.111, -0.1021, -0.0721, -0.0014, -0.0092, 0.0207, -0.0, -0.0155, -0.0127, -0.0479, -0.0413, -0.0353, -0.042, -0.0502, -0.0277, -0.0043, 0.0, -0.008, 0.0158, 0.0491, 0.0913, 0.1337, 0.1043, 0.1344, 0.1294, 0.0757, 0.0445, 0.0296, 0.0631, 0.0646, 0.0853, 0.0853, 0.1047, 0.1219, 0.1263, 0.1103, 0.0595, 0.0796, 0.0795, 0.0661, -0.0038, 0.0419, 0.0106, -0.0278, 0.0169, 0.0355, 0.0475, 0.031, 0.0099, 0.0203, 0.0203, 0.0319, -0.0278, -0.0433, -0.0443, -0.0326, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006759712436691082", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-01-01T16:09:33+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the sky is the limit for gold and silver", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "If Fed starts buying, gold and silver have no ceiling; dollar would suffer significantly.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@commonsenseplay @TaviCosta The FED may well start buying, agreed.\nBut in that environment the sky \nis the limit for gold and silver!\nAlso would very negative for the dollar.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @TaviCosta But there is no way yields continue to rise, that means higher mortgage rates, higher national debt interest payments, corporate debt explodes\n\nTrump won’t let it happen.\n\nFED will step in and start buying", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "commonsenseplay", "ret_m1d": -0.004946272036610022, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004946272036610022, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0031166326509793896, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0031166326509793896, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.026313174195160993, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.026313174195160993, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.01965296708691633, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01965296708691633, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "ret_p1w": 0.04064980036915644, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04064980036915644, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.024694726993171434, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.024694726993171434, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "ret_p1m": 0.07243649239715544, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.07243649239715544, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.05452001973279952, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.05452001973279952, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "ret_p3m": 0.09927691238854441, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.09927691238854441, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13754045518689118, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.13754045518689118, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.07243649239715544, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.05452001973279952, "alpha_c_stated": 0.05452001973279952, "price_path": [-0.0804, -0.0652, -0.0825, -0.0732, -0.0507, -0.0439, -0.0273, -0.0046, -0.0233, 0.0122, -0.0528, -0.0527, -0.0489, -0.0521, -0.0785, -0.0851, -0.0886, -0.0707, -0.0757, -0.0741, -0.0903, -0.0798, -0.0809, -0.0752, -0.05, -0.0462, -0.0309, -0.0387, -0.056, -0.0669, -0.0601, -0.0586, -0.0588, -0.0603, -0.0454, -0.0457, -0.0381, -0.0381, -0.0261, -0.0214, -0.0277, -0.0286, -0.028, -0.0297, -0.0323, -0.0273, -0.0232, -0.0127, -0.0071, -0.0062, -0.006, 0.0025, 0.0007, 0.0019, 0.025, 0.0386, 0.0343, 0.0343, 0.0463, 0.0008, 0.0015, -0.0049, -0.0049, 0.0, 0.0263, 0.0374, 0.0275, 0.0332, 0.0406, 0.0601, 0.0586, 0.0694, 0.0629, 0.0578, 0.0578, 0.0978, 0.1138, 0.1344, 0.1499, 0.1668, 0.1954, 0.2417, 0.2451, 0.1172, 0.0724, 0.1406, 0.1398, 0.1095, 0.1436, 0.1726, 0.161, 0.1741, 0.1333, 0.1615, 0.1615, 0.1253, 0.1506, 0.1539, 0.1766, 0.2084, 0.1916, 0.1887, 0.1989, 0.2146, 0.2303, 0.1754, 0.1846, 0.1704, 0.1889, 0.1864, 0.1998, 0.1957, 0.1722, 0.1571, 0.156, 0.1531, 0.1167, 0.0706, 0.0379, 0.0145, 0.0147, 0.0452, 0.0059, 0.0412, 0.0409, 0.0804, 0.0993, 0.0782, 0.0782, 0.0737, 0.0842, 0.091, 0.0995, 0.0975, 0.0931, 0.1175, 0.1059, 0.105, 0.1196, 0.11, 0.0786, 0.0928, 0.0823, 0.0878, 0.0794, 0.0593, 0.048, 0.0637, 0.0625, 0.0413, 0.0502, 0.0821, 0.0839, 0.0891, 0.0913, 0.087, 0.0809, 0.0726, 0.0477, 0.0506, 0.0332, 0.048, 0.047, 0.039, 0.039, 0.0395, 0.0256, 0.0364, 0.0473, 0.0326, 0.0343, 0.0241, 0.0326, -0.0051, -0.0025, -0.0188, -0.0595, -0.03, -0.0295, -0.0043, -0.0016, -0.0243, -0.028, -0.028, -0.0344, -0.0526, -0.0812, -0.0724, -0.0619, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2006759712436691082", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-01-01T16:09:33+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the sky is the limit for gold and silver", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "If Fed starts buying, gold and silver have no ceiling; dollar would suffer significantly.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@commonsenseplay @TaviCosta The FED may well start buying, agreed.\nBut in that environment the sky \nis the limit for gold and silver!\nAlso would very negative for the dollar.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @TaviCosta But there is no way yields continue to rise, that means higher mortgage rates, higher national debt interest payments, corporate debt explodes\n\nTrump won’t let it happen.\n\nFED will step in and start buying", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "commonsenseplay", "ret_m1d": -0.020228164730869747, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.020228164730869747, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.018398525345239114, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.018398525345239114, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0018296393856306326, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05064641568144013, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05064641568144013, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.04398620857319546, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.04398620857319546, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0066602071082446646, "ret_p1w": 0.10083646012803005, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.10083646012803005, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.08488138675204504, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.08488138675204504, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "bench_c_p1w": 0.015955073375985007, "ret_p1m": 0.10174908656131176, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10174908656131176, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.08383261389695584, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08383261389695584, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01791647266435592, "ret_p3m": 0.03634980060301807, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03634980060301807, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.07461334340136483, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07461334340136483, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "bench_c_p3m": -0.03826354279834676, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10174908656131176, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.08383261389695584, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08383261389695584, "price_path": [-0.3401, -0.3223, -0.32, -0.309, -0.2812, -0.2882, -0.2649, -0.2522, -0.2853, -0.2742, -0.334, -0.3326, -0.3281, -0.331, -0.3551, -0.3506, -0.3425, -0.3256, -0.3306, -0.3344, -0.35, -0.3361, -0.3376, -0.332, -0.3036, -0.2935, -0.2651, -0.2788, -0.301, -0.3084, -0.2989, -0.2935, -0.3037, -0.311, -0.2908, -0.2902, -0.2639, -0.2639, -0.2211, -0.2012, -0.1919, -0.1929, -0.2128, -0.1947, -0.1983, -0.1609, -0.1472, -0.1237, -0.1468, -0.1162, -0.122, -0.0835, -0.0978, -0.0733, -0.0499, -0.0138, -0.0081, -0.0081, 0.0817, 0.004, 0.0491, -0.0202, -0.0202, 0.0, 0.0506, 0.1211, 0.0792, 0.0602, 0.1008, 0.1746, 0.1954, 0.2861, 0.2672, 0.2322, 0.2322, 0.2987, 0.277, 0.3252, 0.4131, 0.4957, 0.5451, 0.6061, 0.6056, 0.1474, 0.1017, 0.1705, 0.2043, 0.0143, 0.0675, 0.1565, 0.1165, 0.1644, 0.0301, 0.0604, 0.0604, 0.0094, 0.066, 0.08, 0.1653, 0.2254, 0.2027, 0.2173, 0.2236, 0.2926, 0.2406, 0.1358, 0.1459, 0.1296, 0.155, 0.1903, 0.2181, 0.1849, 0.1632, 0.1056, 0.1136, 0.0899, 0.0449, -0.0011, -0.0643, -0.0499, -0.0426, -0.0082, -0.0757, -0.0351, -0.0339, 0.0363, 0.0363, 0.0006, 0.0006, 0.0052, 0.0029, 0.0262, 0.0402, 0.0506, 0.0385, 0.0957, 0.0926, 0.0835, 0.1198, 0.0973, 0.0417, 0.0703, 0.04, 0.0462, 0.0392, 0.0068, -0.0138, 0.0138, 0.0386, 0.0029, 0.0024, 0.0666, 0.089, 0.1104, 0.1863, 0.1947, 0.2068, 0.1484, 0.05, 0.0637, 0.0175, 0.0453, 0.0563, 0.0397, 0.0397, 0.0604, 0.0266, 0.0397, 0.0392, 0.0292, 0.0341, 0.007, 0.0187, -0.0636, -0.0634, -0.1025, -0.123, -0.075, -0.0678, -0.0347, -0.0359, -0.0782, -0.0949, -0.0949, -0.104, -0.1524, -0.2125, -0.2037, -0.1897, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2024261510869008892", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-18T23:15:27+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "This will be above 100$ within next 2-3 years.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Opendoor above $100 within 2–3 years.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "qme", "tweet_text": "$OPEN https://t.co/HyOjrO56H5", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @PurposelyJoyful @ericjackson Ya ya 🤣 Good luck tomorrow!\nThis will be above 100$ within next 2-3 years.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.004301071078780971, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004301071078780971, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.006945389380192291, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.007773313540306637, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.002644318301411319, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0034722424615256653, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.07526879515147877, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.07526879515147877, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0680369458623824, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.06693541324381691, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00723184928909637, "bench_c_p1d": 0.008333381907661863, "ret_p1w": 0.16344080353930068, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.16344080353930068, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.15639899950069558, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.15348707170815468, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.007041804038605104, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009953731831146007, "ret_p1m": 0.05591392402415285, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.05591392402415285, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10578932784789918, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11633058415196762, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.049875403823746334, "bench_c_p1m": -0.06041666012781477, "ret_p3m": -0.07526879515147888, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.07526879515147888, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.15014877530071458, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.0992348905690964, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.07487998014923569, "bench_c_p3m": 0.023966095417617517, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.6538, 0.6645, 0.6731, 0.6731, 0.6559, 0.5355, 0.5032, 0.4925, 0.6301, 0.5376, 0.5161, 0.5935, 0.5054, 0.5161, 0.4108, 0.3914, 0.4473, 0.3161, 0.3505, 0.3677, 0.3806, 0.3484, 0.3505, 0.3505, 0.2925, 0.2538, 0.2559, 0.2538, 0.2538, 0.3054, 0.3591, 0.4903, 0.3161, 0.3828, 0.5677, 0.5097, 0.4559, 0.428, 0.3548, 0.4344, 0.4344, 0.3742, 0.3935, 0.3806, 0.2925, 0.2624, 0.2495, 0.2387, 0.2, 0.1075, 0.0366, 0.1032, 0.0753, 0.0108, 0.0495, 0.0624, 0.0086, 0.0237, -0.0581, -0.0441, -0.0441, -0.0688, -0.0043, 0.0, 0.0753, 0.028, 0.0989, 0.071, 0.1634, 0.1656, 0.086, 0.0688, 0.0495, 0.114, 0.0753, 0.0925, 0.0774, 0.1333, 0.0409, 0.0645, 0.114, 0.1957, 0.1355, 0.1054, 0.0559, 0.1204, 0.114, 0.0968, 0.0538, 0.0323, -0.0473, 0.0065, -0.0172, 0.0194, 0.0194, -0.0086, -0.0215, -0.0022, -0.0731, -0.071, -0.0624, -0.0301, 0.0366, 0.1333, 0.1376, 0.1505, 0.172, 0.1677, 0.1226, 0.1849, 0.1591, 0.1785, 0.2, 0.157, 0.1699, 0.1032, 0.1247, 0.1742, 0.1441, 0.0774, 0.043, 0.0129, -0.0151, -0.0387, -0.0581, -0.0796, -0.0753, -0.0538, -0.0172, -0.0258, -0.0258, -0.0366, 0.0215, 0.0903, 0.0839, 0.1419, 0.1634, 0.0473, 0.0645, -0.0495, -0.0731, -0.0667, -0.0366, -0.0387, -0.0452, -0.0086, 0.0215, -0.043, -0.0387, -0.0387, -0.0796, -0.0968, -0.0796, -0.0753, -0.0602, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029203971458384249", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-03-04T14:35:02+00:00", "symbol": "XLE", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation. That trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long energy complex (XLE, oil services, crude) / short tech (XLK) on structural underinvestment, tight rig supply, Hormuz disruption, and extreme S&P underweight; trade has years to run.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST LOOKED AT WHAT ENERGY STOCKS DID THIS WEEK\n\nAnd if you're still underweight this sector, you need to read this.\n\nXLE hit a new record high on Monday. Up over 22% year-to-date.\n\nEnergy is outperforming tech by double digits in 2026. And the gap keeps widening.\n\nSLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time.\n\nI've been banging this drum since December.\n\nThat's when I went on camera and pitched Valaris at $54. Transocean announced an all-stock acquisition in February at an implied price around $84. A 55% gain in two months.\n\nThen I said Tidewater was next.\n\nThe thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.\n\nBut this isn't about individual stock picks. This is about what's happening to the entire energy complex RIGHT NOW:\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.\n\nOver the weekend, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by threatening to set any ship on fire that tried to pass through the strait.\n\nCommercial shipping traffic collapsed by 70% within hours and then dropped to near zero. At least 3 tankers have been hit. Around 150 ships are stranded outside the strait.\n\n20% of the world's oil supply transits that strait every single day.\n\nWTI crude surged 8.4% to $72.74 on Monday. Brent jumped 9% to $79.45. Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on.\n\nAnd here's what nobody seems to understand:\n\nEnergy stocks were ALREADY working before any of this happened.\n\nXLE gained 14% in January alone. Offshore backlogs were expanding. Dayrates were climbing. Oil service companies were rallying on improving fundamentals, NOT geopolitical panic.\n\nThe Iran situation poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.\n\nNow look at the absurdity of current market positioning:\n\nThe entire energy sector is about 3% of the S&P 500. Nvidia ALONE is over 7%.\n\nAll of America's oil and gas companies combined are worth less than one semiconductor firm.\n\nThat's not an allocation. That's a market telling you energy doesn't matter.\n\nBut energy is the foundation of EVERYTHING.\n\nEvery data center running AI needs power. Every ship moving goods needs fuel. Every factory producing anything needs energy.\n\nYou can't code your way out of a supply disruption. And one just arrived.\n\nThe oil service companies are where the real leverage is. \n\nThese companies have pricing power because the supply of rigs, vessels, and equipment is tight and getting tighter.\n\nAfter a decade of underinvestment following the 2014 collapse, you can't snap your fingers and build a new deepwater rig. It takes years.\n\nMeanwhile the Mag 7 trade at nosebleed multiples while spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that most CFOs say has produced no measurable returns.\n\nThe math isn't complicated.\n\nOil service companies with real cash flows and a structural supply tailwind versus sky-high valuations betting on a productivity revolution that hasn't shown up in the numbers.\n\nI've been saying it for months: long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation.\n\nThat trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.\n\nIf you're still overweight tech and underweight energy after what happened this week, you're not investing.\n\nYou're HOPING.\n\nEnergy reality beats narrative.\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.005872959457852378, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.005872959457852378, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0128788861098027, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0128788861098027, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.005161096012298305, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.005161096012298305, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.010736766504206074, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010736766504206074, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "bench_c_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "ret_p1w": 0.014059423494535706, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.014059423494535706, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.026903696988888837, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.026903696988888837, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "bench_c_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "ret_p1m": 0.06134765255062269, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06134765255062269, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10149907162982785, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.10149907162982785, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "bench_c_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "ret_p3m": 0.026417202221801217, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.026417202221801217, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.08375389832852043, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.08375389832852043, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1897, -0.1985, -0.1936, -0.1851, -0.189, -0.1969, -0.2026, -0.2269, -0.2098, -0.2213, -0.2213, -0.2132, -0.208, -0.2104, -0.2104, -0.2134, -0.2059, -0.1999, -0.2043, -0.2043, -0.1876, -0.1655, -0.1878, -0.1968, -0.1716, -0.1694, -0.1753, -0.1636, -0.1447, -0.1527, -0.1513, -0.1513, -0.1529, -0.1324, -0.1296, -0.1246, -0.124, -0.116, -0.1093, -0.1011, -0.0915, -0.1093, -0.0804, -0.0598, -0.0708, -0.0523, -0.0454, -0.0464, -0.0215, -0.0393, -0.0327, -0.0327, -0.0434, -0.0251, -0.018, -0.0233, -0.0185, -0.0194, -0.0235, -0.0203, -0.0048, 0.0151, 0.0059, 0.0, 0.0052, 0.0068, 0.0023, -0.0105, 0.0141, 0.0235, 0.0269, 0.0304, 0.0413, 0.0399, 0.0564, 0.0555, 0.0682, 0.0898, 0.085, 0.102, 0.1206, 0.1099, 0.0974, 0.0563, 0.0613, 0.0613, 0.0691, 0.0776, 0.0399, 0.027, 0.02, 0.023, 0.0022, -0.0012, 0.0135, -0.0144, -0.0135, 0.0008, 0.0128, 0.0207, 0.0187, 0.0169, 0.0338, 0.0574, 0.0685, 0.0542, 0.0639, 0.0649, 0.021, 0.0022, -0.0022, 0.0241, 0.0313, 0.0323, 0.0402, 0.0648, 0.0852, 0.0979, 0.0712, 0.0592, 0.0656, 0.0656, 0.0363, 0.0209, 0.0201, 0.0083, 0.0264, 0.0382, 0.0517, 0.0524, 0.033, 0.0449, 0.028, 0.0434, 0.0232, 0.0309, -0.0049, -0.0083, -0.0207, -0.0368, -0.0368, -0.0246, -0.0174, -0.0335, -0.0241, -0.0286, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029203971458384249", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-03-04T14:35:02+00:00", "symbol": "XLK", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation. That trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long energy complex (XLE, oil services, crude) / short tech (XLK) on structural underinvestment, tight rig supply, Hormuz disruption, and extreme S&P underweight; trade has years to run.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLK"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST LOOKED AT WHAT ENERGY STOCKS DID THIS WEEK\n\nAnd if you're still underweight this sector, you need to read this.\n\nXLE hit a new record high on Monday. Up over 22% year-to-date.\n\nEnergy is outperforming tech by double digits in 2026. And the gap keeps widening.\n\nSLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time.\n\nI've been banging this drum since December.\n\nThat's when I went on camera and pitched Valaris at $54. Transocean announced an all-stock acquisition in February at an implied price around $84. A 55% gain in two months.\n\nThen I said Tidewater was next.\n\nThe thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.\n\nBut this isn't about individual stock picks. This is about what's happening to the entire energy complex RIGHT NOW:\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.\n\nOver the weekend, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by threatening to set any ship on fire that tried to pass through the strait.\n\nCommercial shipping traffic collapsed by 70% within hours and then dropped to near zero. At least 3 tankers have been hit. Around 150 ships are stranded outside the strait.\n\n20% of the world's oil supply transits that strait every single day.\n\nWTI crude surged 8.4% to $72.74 on Monday. Brent jumped 9% to $79.45. Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on.\n\nAnd here's what nobody seems to understand:\n\nEnergy stocks were ALREADY working before any of this happened.\n\nXLE gained 14% in January alone. Offshore backlogs were expanding. Dayrates were climbing. Oil service companies were rallying on improving fundamentals, NOT geopolitical panic.\n\nThe Iran situation poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.\n\nNow look at the absurdity of current market positioning:\n\nThe entire energy sector is about 3% of the S&P 500. Nvidia ALONE is over 7%.\n\nAll of America's oil and gas companies combined are worth less than one semiconductor firm.\n\nThat's not an allocation. That's a market telling you energy doesn't matter.\n\nBut energy is the foundation of EVERYTHING.\n\nEvery data center running AI needs power. Every ship moving goods needs fuel. Every factory producing anything needs energy.\n\nYou can't code your way out of a supply disruption. And one just arrived.\n\nThe oil service companies are where the real leverage is. \n\nThese companies have pricing power because the supply of rigs, vessels, and equipment is tight and getting tighter.\n\nAfter a decade of underinvestment following the 2014 collapse, you can't snap your fingers and build a new deepwater rig. It takes years.\n\nMeanwhile the Mag 7 trade at nosebleed multiples while spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that most CFOs say has produced no measurable returns.\n\nThe math isn't complicated.\n\nOil service companies with real cash flows and a structural supply tailwind versus sky-high valuations betting on a productivity revolution that hasn't shown up in the numbers.\n\nI've been saying it for months: long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation.\n\nThat trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.\n\nIf you're still overweight tech and underweight energy after what happened this week, you're not investing.\n\nYou're HOPING.\n\nEnergy reality beats narrative.\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.016733367810539912, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.016733367810539912, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.00972744115858959, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.00972744115858959, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0024313431059588275, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0024313431059588275, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.008007013597866597, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.008007013597866597, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "bench_c_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "ret_p1w": 0.0042190825212813365, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0042190825212813365, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.017063356015634468, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.017063356015634468, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "bench_c_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "ret_p1m": -0.026322231497815873, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.026322231497815873, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.01382918758138929, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.01382918758138929, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "bench_c_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "ret_p3m": 0.40162620407706084, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.40162620407706084, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.2914551035267392, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.2914551035267392, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0468, 0.0541, 0.0569, 0.062, 0.0565, 0.026, 0.0161, 0.0179, -0.0047, 0.0106, 0.0325, 0.038, 0.0437, 0.0462, 0.0462, 0.0478, 0.0431, 0.0398, 0.0295, 0.0295, 0.0319, 0.0342, 0.0487, 0.0478, 0.0315, 0.0451, 0.0497, 0.0475, 0.0348, 0.0402, 0.0413, 0.0413, 0.0143, 0.0284, 0.036, 0.0375, 0.0446, 0.0587, 0.0671, 0.0503, 0.0289, 0.0388, 0.016, -0.0123, -0.0301, 0.0092, 0.0251, 0.0194, 0.0224, -0.0045, -0.002, -0.002, -0.0026, 0.0077, 0.0026, 0.0074, -0.0094, 0.0034, 0.0227, 0.0084, -0.0077, -0.0021, -0.0167, 0.0, 0.0024, -0.0182, -0.0006, -0.0006, 0.0042, -0.0143, -0.0217, -0.0076, -0.0021, -0.0134, -0.0101, -0.0325, -0.0194, -0.0252, -0.0208, -0.0513, -0.0698, -0.0871, -0.0484, -0.0341, -0.0263, -0.0263, -0.0207, -0.016, 0.0145, 0.0172, 0.0211, 0.0426, 0.0592, 0.0761, 0.0885, 0.1051, 0.1066, 0.1076, 0.1319, 0.1158, 0.1472, 0.1497, 0.1302, 0.1392, 0.142, 0.159, 0.1603, 0.1859, 0.2174, 0.215, 0.2567, 0.2736, 0.2544, 0.2662, 0.2852, 0.262, 0.2484, 0.2404, 0.2683, 0.2788, 0.2916, 0.2916, 0.3256, 0.3205, 0.3378, 0.3677, 0.4016, 0.4192, 0.405, 0.3831, 0.2909, 0.3187, 0.2943, 0.2647, 0.3118, 0.3232, 0.3732, 0.3349, 0.3303, 0.3707, 0.3707, 0.3774, 0.3204, 0.3122, 0.3231, 0.2983, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029203971458384249", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-03-04T14:35:02+00:00", "symbol": "SLB", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long energy complex (XLE, oil services, crude) / short tech (XLK) on structural underinvestment, tight rig supply, Hormuz disruption, and extreme S&P underweight; trade has years to run.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLB"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas Equipment & Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST LOOKED AT WHAT ENERGY STOCKS DID THIS WEEK\n\nAnd if you're still underweight this sector, you need to read this.\n\nXLE hit a new record high on Monday. Up over 22% year-to-date.\n\nEnergy is outperforming tech by double digits in 2026. And the gap keeps widening.\n\nSLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time.\n\nI've been banging this drum since December.\n\nThat's when I went on camera and pitched Valaris at $54. Transocean announced an all-stock acquisition in February at an implied price around $84. A 55% gain in two months.\n\nThen I said Tidewater was next.\n\nThe thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.\n\nBut this isn't about individual stock picks. This is about what's happening to the entire energy complex RIGHT NOW:\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.\n\nOver the weekend, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by threatening to set any ship on fire that tried to pass through the strait.\n\nCommercial shipping traffic collapsed by 70% within hours and then dropped to near zero. At least 3 tankers have been hit. Around 150 ships are stranded outside the strait.\n\n20% of the world's oil supply transits that strait every single day.\n\nWTI crude surged 8.4% to $72.74 on Monday. Brent jumped 9% to $79.45. Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on.\n\nAnd here's what nobody seems to understand:\n\nEnergy stocks were ALREADY working before any of this happened.\n\nXLE gained 14% in January alone. Offshore backlogs were expanding. Dayrates were climbing. Oil service companies were rallying on improving fundamentals, NOT geopolitical panic.\n\nThe Iran situation poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.\n\nNow look at the absurdity of current market positioning:\n\nThe entire energy sector is about 3% of the S&P 500. Nvidia ALONE is over 7%.\n\nAll of America's oil and gas companies combined are worth less than one semiconductor firm.\n\nThat's not an allocation. That's a market telling you energy doesn't matter.\n\nBut energy is the foundation of EVERYTHING.\n\nEvery data center running AI needs power. Every ship moving goods needs fuel. Every factory producing anything needs energy.\n\nYou can't code your way out of a supply disruption. And one just arrived.\n\nThe oil service companies are where the real leverage is. \n\nThese companies have pricing power because the supply of rigs, vessels, and equipment is tight and getting tighter.\n\nAfter a decade of underinvestment following the 2014 collapse, you can't snap your fingers and build a new deepwater rig. It takes years.\n\nMeanwhile the Mag 7 trade at nosebleed multiples while spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that most CFOs say has produced no measurable returns.\n\nThe math isn't complicated.\n\nOil service companies with real cash flows and a structural supply tailwind versus sky-high valuations betting on a productivity revolution that hasn't shown up in the numbers.\n\nI've been saying it for months: long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation.\n\nThat trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.\n\nIf you're still overweight tech and underweight energy after what happened this week, you're not investing.\n\nYou're HOPING.\n\nEnergy reality beats narrative.\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.014408022421732225, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.014408022421732225, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.021413949073682548, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.008535062963879847, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005872959457852378, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010231732977552754, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.010231732977552754, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.004656062485644985, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01539282898985106, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005161096012298305, "ret_p1w": 0.005846693119595958, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.005846693119595958, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.01869096661394909, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.008212730374939747, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014059423494535706, "ret_p1m": 0.032365762754153815, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.032365762754153815, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07251718183335898, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.028981889796468874, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "bench_c_p1m": 0.06134765255062269, "ret_p3m": 0.1432449022700546, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1432449022700546, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.033073801719732954, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11682770004825338, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "bench_c_p3m": 0.026417202221801217, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2016, -0.2062, -0.2049, -0.1711, -0.1626, -0.1811, -0.1925, -0.2193, -0.2002, -0.2085, -0.2095, -0.2043, -0.207, -0.2118, -0.2118, -0.2155, -0.2132, -0.1997, -0.2033, -0.2033, -0.1655, -0.0908, -0.0943, -0.1205, -0.0777, -0.0617, -0.0627, -0.0472, -0.025, -0.0333, -0.0299, -0.0299, -0.0358, 0.0072, 0.0238, 0.0203, 0.0317, 0.0516, 0.0145, 0.0058, 0.0043, -0.0025, 0.033, 0.066, 0.0278, 0.0525, 0.0491, 0.0446, 0.0766, 0.0574, 0.0522, 0.0522, 0.0407, 0.0773, 0.0762, 0.0618, 0.07, 0.0827, 0.0787, 0.0752, 0.072, 0.0706, 0.0144, 0.0, -0.0102, -0.0207, -0.0146, 0.0046, 0.0058, -0.0695, -0.0662, -0.0612, -0.0368, -0.0537, -0.0015, -0.0263, 0.0284, 0.0547, 0.0835, 0.0923, 0.1171, 0.076, 0.0731, 0.0447, 0.0324, 0.0324, 0.0395, 0.0514, 0.0833, 0.0971, 0.0842, 0.0842, 0.0752, 0.0946, 0.0802, 0.0996, 0.09, 0.1019, 0.1349, 0.143, 0.1725, 0.1533, 0.162, 0.1631, 0.1877, 0.1886, 0.1616, 0.1693, 0.1518, 0.1067, 0.1123, 0.147, 0.1618, 0.1564, 0.1641, 0.1564, 0.1934, 0.1854, 0.1961, 0.1954, 0.1961, 0.1961, 0.2107, 0.1798, 0.151, 0.1391, 0.1432, 0.181, 0.1933, 0.2177, 0.1518, 0.187, 0.1723, 0.1652, 0.1755, 0.1793, 0.1274, 0.114, 0.0565, 0.0094, 0.0094, 0.0065, 0.0031, -0.0216, -0.0046, -0.0134, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029203971458384249", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-03-04T14:35:02+00:00", "symbol": "HAL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long energy complex (XLE, oil services, crude) / short tech (XLK) on structural underinvestment, tight rig supply, Hormuz disruption, and extreme S&P underweight; trade has years to run.", "resolved_tickers": ["HAL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas Equipment & Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST LOOKED AT WHAT ENERGY STOCKS DID THIS WEEK\n\nAnd if you're still underweight this sector, you need to read this.\n\nXLE hit a new record high on Monday. Up over 22% year-to-date.\n\nEnergy is outperforming tech by double digits in 2026. And the gap keeps widening.\n\nSLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time.\n\nI've been banging this drum since December.\n\nThat's when I went on camera and pitched Valaris at $54. Transocean announced an all-stock acquisition in February at an implied price around $84. A 55% gain in two months.\n\nThen I said Tidewater was next.\n\nThe thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.\n\nBut this isn't about individual stock picks. This is about what's happening to the entire energy complex RIGHT NOW:\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.\n\nOver the weekend, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by threatening to set any ship on fire that tried to pass through the strait.\n\nCommercial shipping traffic collapsed by 70% within hours and then dropped to near zero. At least 3 tankers have been hit. Around 150 ships are stranded outside the strait.\n\n20% of the world's oil supply transits that strait every single day.\n\nWTI crude surged 8.4% to $72.74 on Monday. Brent jumped 9% to $79.45. Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on.\n\nAnd here's what nobody seems to understand:\n\nEnergy stocks were ALREADY working before any of this happened.\n\nXLE gained 14% in January alone. Offshore backlogs were expanding. Dayrates were climbing. Oil service companies were rallying on improving fundamentals, NOT geopolitical panic.\n\nThe Iran situation poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.\n\nNow look at the absurdity of current market positioning:\n\nThe entire energy sector is about 3% of the S&P 500. Nvidia ALONE is over 7%.\n\nAll of America's oil and gas companies combined are worth less than one semiconductor firm.\n\nThat's not an allocation. That's a market telling you energy doesn't matter.\n\nBut energy is the foundation of EVERYTHING.\n\nEvery data center running AI needs power. Every ship moving goods needs fuel. Every factory producing anything needs energy.\n\nYou can't code your way out of a supply disruption. And one just arrived.\n\nThe oil service companies are where the real leverage is. \n\nThese companies have pricing power because the supply of rigs, vessels, and equipment is tight and getting tighter.\n\nAfter a decade of underinvestment following the 2014 collapse, you can't snap your fingers and build a new deepwater rig. It takes years.\n\nMeanwhile the Mag 7 trade at nosebleed multiples while spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that most CFOs say has produced no measurable returns.\n\nThe math isn't complicated.\n\nOil service companies with real cash flows and a structural supply tailwind versus sky-high valuations betting on a productivity revolution that hasn't shown up in the numbers.\n\nI've been saying it for months: long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation.\n\nThat trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.\n\nIf you're still overweight tech and underweight energy after what happened this week, you're not investing.\n\nYou're HOPING.\n\nEnergy reality beats narrative.\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.019169428965027935, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.019169428965027935, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.026175355616978258, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.013296469507175557, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005872959457852378, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.007841993603699748, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.007841993603699748, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.002266323111791979, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.013003089615998054, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005161096012298305, "ret_p1w": 0.04356674239876068, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04356674239876068, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.056411015893113814, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.029507318904224977, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014059423494535706, "ret_p1m": 0.10862617071065062, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10862617071065062, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.14877758978985578, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04727851816002793, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "bench_c_p1m": 0.06134765255062269, "ret_p3m": 0.14289866137895757, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.14289866137895757, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.032727560828635927, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.11648145915715635, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "bench_c_p3m": 0.026417202221801217, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1777, -0.1884, -0.1739, -0.1606, -0.1583, -0.1728, -0.1788, -0.2141, -0.1982, -0.2063, -0.1988, -0.1852, -0.1858, -0.1898, -0.1898, -0.1918, -0.1863, -0.1765, -0.1832, -0.1832, -0.1444, -0.0774, -0.1089, -0.1219, -0.0701, -0.0568, -0.0779, -0.0574, -0.045, -0.0525, -0.0586, -0.0586, -0.0733, -0.0357, -0.0253, -0.0187, -0.0126, -0.0097, -0.0357, -0.0349, -0.0311, -0.0511, -0.021, -0.0074, -0.0219, 0.0111, 0.0088, -0.0167, 0.0125, -0.0089, -0.0184, -0.0184, -0.0256, 0.005, 0.0223, 0.0148, 0.0186, 0.0345, 0.0195, 0.0322, 0.0406, 0.0397, 0.0192, 0.0, -0.0078, -0.011, 0.0064, 0.0264, 0.0436, 0.0119, -0.0215, -0.0078, 0.0351, 0.052, 0.0726, 0.061, 0.0895, 0.1069, 0.122, 0.1266, 0.174, 0.1403, 0.1324, 0.1037, 0.1086, 0.1086, 0.0985, 0.1246, 0.0979, 0.0947, 0.0918, 0.1214, 0.0895, 0.0903, 0.108, 0.079, 0.0654, 0.108, 0.1359, 0.1516, 0.1722, 0.1656, 0.1853, 0.2143, 0.2286, 0.21, 0.2193, 0.2117, 0.1734, 0.1362, 0.1568, 0.1693, 0.2112, 0.1914, 0.1992, 0.2129, 0.2425, 0.2483, 0.2286, 0.2187, 0.2045, 0.2045, 0.1931, 0.1502, 0.1423, 0.1284, 0.1429, 0.1656, 0.1968, 0.2023, 0.1428, 0.1813, 0.1556, 0.1588, 0.1597, 0.1551, 0.1136, 0.085, 0.0568, 0.0188, 0.0188, 0.0258, 0.0241, -0.0112, 0.0113, -0.0022, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029203971458384249", "ticker_idx": 4, "ts": "2026-03-04T14:35:02+00:00", "symbol": "BKR", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "SLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long energy complex (XLE, oil services, crude) / short tech (XLK) on structural underinvestment, tight rig supply, Hormuz disruption, and extreme S&P underweight; trade has years to run.", "resolved_tickers": ["BKR"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas Equipment & Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST LOOKED AT WHAT ENERGY STOCKS DID THIS WEEK\n\nAnd if you're still underweight this sector, you need to read this.\n\nXLE hit a new record high on Monday. Up over 22% year-to-date.\n\nEnergy is outperforming tech by double digits in 2026. And the gap keeps widening.\n\nSLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time.\n\nI've been banging this drum since December.\n\nThat's when I went on camera and pitched Valaris at $54. Transocean announced an all-stock acquisition in February at an implied price around $84. A 55% gain in two months.\n\nThen I said Tidewater was next.\n\nThe thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.\n\nBut this isn't about individual stock picks. This is about what's happening to the entire energy complex RIGHT NOW:\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.\n\nOver the weekend, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by threatening to set any ship on fire that tried to pass through the strait.\n\nCommercial shipping traffic collapsed by 70% within hours and then dropped to near zero. At least 3 tankers have been hit. Around 150 ships are stranded outside the strait.\n\n20% of the world's oil supply transits that strait every single day.\n\nWTI crude surged 8.4% to $72.74 on Monday. Brent jumped 9% to $79.45. Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on.\n\nAnd here's what nobody seems to understand:\n\nEnergy stocks were ALREADY working before any of this happened.\n\nXLE gained 14% in January alone. Offshore backlogs were expanding. Dayrates were climbing. Oil service companies were rallying on improving fundamentals, NOT geopolitical panic.\n\nThe Iran situation poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.\n\nNow look at the absurdity of current market positioning:\n\nThe entire energy sector is about 3% of the S&P 500. Nvidia ALONE is over 7%.\n\nAll of America's oil and gas companies combined are worth less than one semiconductor firm.\n\nThat's not an allocation. That's a market telling you energy doesn't matter.\n\nBut energy is the foundation of EVERYTHING.\n\nEvery data center running AI needs power. Every ship moving goods needs fuel. Every factory producing anything needs energy.\n\nYou can't code your way out of a supply disruption. And one just arrived.\n\nThe oil service companies are where the real leverage is. \n\nThese companies have pricing power because the supply of rigs, vessels, and equipment is tight and getting tighter.\n\nAfter a decade of underinvestment following the 2014 collapse, you can't snap your fingers and build a new deepwater rig. It takes years.\n\nMeanwhile the Mag 7 trade at nosebleed multiples while spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that most CFOs say has produced no measurable returns.\n\nThe math isn't complicated.\n\nOil service companies with real cash flows and a structural supply tailwind versus sky-high valuations betting on a productivity revolution that hasn't shown up in the numbers.\n\nI've been saying it for months: long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation.\n\nThat trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.\n\nIf you're still overweight tech and underweight energy after what happened this week, you're not investing.\n\nYou're HOPING.\n\nEnergy reality beats narrative.\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.02726677130971522, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.02726677130971522, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.034272697961665544, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.021393811851862843, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005872959457852378, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.011333801538362165, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.011333801538362165, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.0057581310464543956, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.01649489755066047, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005161096012298305, "ret_p1w": -0.031373173763057594, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.031373173763057594, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.018528900268704462, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.0454325972575933, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014059423494535706, "ret_p1m": -0.008212867775500787, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.008212867775500787, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03193855130370438, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.06956052032612348, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "bench_c_p1m": 0.06134765255062269, "ret_p3m": 0.03778862208970035, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.03778862208970035, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.07238247846062129, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.011371419867899135, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "bench_c_p3m": 0.026417202221801217, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1949, -0.2245, -0.2196, -0.2139, -0.2234, -0.2332, -0.2327, -0.2633, -0.2589, -0.2723, -0.2684, -0.2545, -0.2605, -0.2587, -0.2587, -0.2595, -0.2574, -0.2458, -0.2548, -0.2548, -0.2286, -0.197, -0.1919, -0.2008, -0.1785, -0.1823, -0.2153, -0.1987, -0.1821, -0.1491, -0.1532, -0.1532, -0.1612, -0.1231, -0.1088, -0.1177, -0.0789, -0.0754, -0.0733, -0.0717, -0.083, -0.0763, -0.0509, -0.0317, -0.0614, -0.0358, -0.0255, -0.0321, 0.0023, 0.0046, 0.0015, 0.0015, -0.0168, 0.0108, 0.0276, 0.0218, 0.0458, 0.0631, 0.0646, 0.066, 0.0719, 0.0649, 0.0273, 0.0, -0.0113, -0.0176, -0.0128, -0.0253, -0.0314, -0.0818, -0.1087, -0.0935, -0.0637, -0.0558, -0.0028, -0.0087, 0.0271, 0.0429, 0.0286, 0.0243, 0.0384, -0.0033, 0.0028, -0.0089, -0.0082, -0.0082, -0.003, 0.0061, 0.0375, 0.0417, 0.032, 0.0276, 0.01, -0.0133, -0.0046, -0.0181, -0.0281, -0.0103, 0.0273, 0.0593, 0.1324, 0.1232, 0.1115, 0.1303, 0.1444, 0.1353, 0.1335, 0.1171, 0.0988, 0.047, 0.053, 0.0647, 0.0752, 0.078, 0.0648, 0.0567, 0.0912, 0.079, 0.1007, 0.0844, 0.0887, 0.0887, 0.0998, 0.0416, 0.0665, 0.0528, 0.0378, 0.0637, 0.0592, 0.0895, 0.0315, 0.0686, 0.0473, 0.0386, 0.0462, 0.0406, 0.0294, 0.0139, -0.01, -0.0374, -0.0374, -0.0252, -0.0329, -0.0708, -0.0616, -0.0679, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029203971458384249", "ticker_idx": 5, "ts": "2026-03-04T14:35:02+00:00", "symbol": "TDW", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Then I said Tidewater was next. The thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long energy complex (XLE, oil services, crude) / short tech (XLK) on structural underinvestment, tight rig supply, Hormuz disruption, and extreme S&P underweight; trade has years to run.", "resolved_tickers": ["TDW"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Oil & Gas Equipment & Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Oil & Gas Equipment & Services", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST LOOKED AT WHAT ENERGY STOCKS DID THIS WEEK\n\nAnd if you're still underweight this sector, you need to read this.\n\nXLE hit a new record high on Monday. Up over 22% year-to-date.\n\nEnergy is outperforming tech by double digits in 2026. And the gap keeps widening.\n\nSLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time.\n\nI've been banging this drum since December.\n\nThat's when I went on camera and pitched Valaris at $54. Transocean announced an all-stock acquisition in February at an implied price around $84. A 55% gain in two months.\n\nThen I said Tidewater was next.\n\nThe thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.\n\nBut this isn't about individual stock picks. This is about what's happening to the entire energy complex RIGHT NOW:\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.\n\nOver the weekend, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by threatening to set any ship on fire that tried to pass through the strait.\n\nCommercial shipping traffic collapsed by 70% within hours and then dropped to near zero. At least 3 tankers have been hit. Around 150 ships are stranded outside the strait.\n\n20% of the world's oil supply transits that strait every single day.\n\nWTI crude surged 8.4% to $72.74 on Monday. Brent jumped 9% to $79.45. Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on.\n\nAnd here's what nobody seems to understand:\n\nEnergy stocks were ALREADY working before any of this happened.\n\nXLE gained 14% in January alone. Offshore backlogs were expanding. Dayrates were climbing. Oil service companies were rallying on improving fundamentals, NOT geopolitical panic.\n\nThe Iran situation poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.\n\nNow look at the absurdity of current market positioning:\n\nThe entire energy sector is about 3% of the S&P 500. Nvidia ALONE is over 7%.\n\nAll of America's oil and gas companies combined are worth less than one semiconductor firm.\n\nThat's not an allocation. That's a market telling you energy doesn't matter.\n\nBut energy is the foundation of EVERYTHING.\n\nEvery data center running AI needs power. Every ship moving goods needs fuel. Every factory producing anything needs energy.\n\nYou can't code your way out of a supply disruption. And one just arrived.\n\nThe oil service companies are where the real leverage is. \n\nThese companies have pricing power because the supply of rigs, vessels, and equipment is tight and getting tighter.\n\nAfter a decade of underinvestment following the 2014 collapse, you can't snap your fingers and build a new deepwater rig. It takes years.\n\nMeanwhile the Mag 7 trade at nosebleed multiples while spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that most CFOs say has produced no measurable returns.\n\nThe math isn't complicated.\n\nOil service companies with real cash flows and a structural supply tailwind versus sky-high valuations betting on a productivity revolution that hasn't shown up in the numbers.\n\nI've been saying it for months: long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation.\n\nThat trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.\n\nIf you're still overweight tech and underweight energy after what happened this week, you're not investing.\n\nYou're HOPING.\n\nEnergy reality beats narrative.\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.046181324298965265, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.046181324298965265, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.05318725095091559, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.04030836484111289, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005872959457852378, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04200482272401418, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04200482272401418, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03642915223210641, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.047165918736312484, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "bench_c_p1d": 0.005161096012298305, "ret_p1w": -0.08699284785258043, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.08699284785258043, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.0741485743582273, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.10105227134711614, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014059423494535706, "ret_p1m": 0.006921171605470455, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.006921171605470455, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.04707259068467562, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.054426480945152234, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "bench_c_p1m": 0.06134765255062269, "ret_p3m": -0.11026259136836913, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.11026259136836913, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.22043369191869078, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.13667979359017035, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "bench_c_p3m": 0.026417202221801217, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.3123, -0.3192, -0.3056, -0.3179, -0.3107, -0.3351, -0.326, -0.37, -0.3654, -0.3974, -0.3992, -0.3884, -0.3906, -0.394, -0.394, -0.3994, -0.3979, -0.3944, -0.3973, -0.3973, -0.3767, -0.38, -0.3644, -0.3685, -0.3234, -0.3258, -0.3168, -0.3216, -0.2961, -0.3036, -0.3144, -0.3144, -0.3226, -0.289, -0.2925, -0.2795, -0.2638, -0.2432, -0.2726, -0.2545, -0.2543, -0.2286, -0.2202, -0.1946, -0.2439, -0.2082, -0.1932, -0.1815, -0.1508, -0.1936, -0.1655, -0.1655, -0.1659, -0.1475, -0.1187, -0.1243, -0.0584, -0.0521, -0.0626, -0.0739, -0.0523, -0.0469, 0.0462, 0.0, -0.042, -0.0717, -0.0334, -0.0819, -0.087, -0.0883, -0.084, -0.1138, -0.0914, -0.1018, -0.1136, -0.1351, -0.0998, -0.0823, -0.0714, -0.0358, -0.0167, -0.0228, -0.003, -0.0043, 0.0069, 0.0069, 0.0181, 0.0292, 0.0482, 0.0464, 0.0274, 0.0481, 0.0057, -0.0023, 0.0068, 0.0173, 0.0144, 0.0008, 0.022, 0.0217, 0.0563, 0.0874, 0.0342, 0.0541, 0.066, 0.0483, 0.0391, 0.0144, -0.0248, -0.0709, -0.0315, -0.0295, -0.0274, -0.0323, -0.0245, -0.0173, 0.0179, 0.001, 0.0091, -0.031, -0.0538, -0.0538, -0.0604, -0.1039, -0.1085, -0.123, -0.1103, -0.1061, -0.1169, -0.1136, -0.1351, -0.1129, -0.1271, -0.1236, -0.1143, -0.0822, -0.1128, -0.1529, -0.192, -0.2283, -0.2283, -0.2082, -0.2075, -0.2291, -0.2153, -0.1967, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2029203971458384249", "ticker_idx": 6, "ts": "2026-03-04T14:35:02+00:00", "symbol": "oil", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long energy complex (XLE, oil services, crude) / short tech (XLK) on structural underinvestment, tight rig supply, Hormuz disruption, and extreme S&P underweight; trade has years to run.", "resolved_tickers": ["USO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "USO is the standard crude oil ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "I JUST LOOKED AT WHAT ENERGY STOCKS DID THIS WEEK\n\nAnd if you're still underweight this sector, you need to read this.\n\nXLE hit a new record high on Monday. Up over 22% year-to-date.\n\nEnergy is outperforming tech by double digits in 2026. And the gap keeps widening.\n\nSLB, Halliburton, Baker Hughes - the entire oil services complex surged on Monday's open as the geopolitical reality repriced the sector in real time.\n\nI've been banging this drum since December.\n\nThat's when I went on camera and pitched Valaris at $54. Transocean announced an all-stock acquisition in February at an implied price around $84. A 55% gain in two months.\n\nThen I said Tidewater was next.\n\nThe thesis hasn't changed. The market is finally catching up.\n\nBut this isn't about individual stock picks. This is about what's happening to the entire energy complex RIGHT NOW:\n\nThe Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down.\n\nOver the weekend, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by threatening to set any ship on fire that tried to pass through the strait.\n\nCommercial shipping traffic collapsed by 70% within hours and then dropped to near zero. At least 3 tankers have been hit. Around 150 ships are stranded outside the strait.\n\n20% of the world's oil supply transits that strait every single day.\n\nWTI crude surged 8.4% to $72.74 on Monday. Brent jumped 9% to $79.45. Barclays says Brent could hit $100. UBS says $120 isn't off the table if this drags on.\n\nAnd here's what nobody seems to understand:\n\nEnergy stocks were ALREADY working before any of this happened.\n\nXLE gained 14% in January alone. Offshore backlogs were expanding. Dayrates were climbing. Oil service companies were rallying on improving fundamentals, NOT geopolitical panic.\n\nThe Iran situation poured gasoline on a fire that was already burning.\n\nNow look at the absurdity of current market positioning:\n\nThe entire energy sector is about 3% of the S&P 500. Nvidia ALONE is over 7%.\n\nAll of America's oil and gas companies combined are worth less than one semiconductor firm.\n\nThat's not an allocation. That's a market telling you energy doesn't matter.\n\nBut energy is the foundation of EVERYTHING.\n\nEvery data center running AI needs power. Every ship moving goods needs fuel. Every factory producing anything needs energy.\n\nYou can't code your way out of a supply disruption. And one just arrived.\n\nThe oil service companies are where the real leverage is. \n\nThese companies have pricing power because the supply of rigs, vessels, and equipment is tight and getting tighter.\n\nAfter a decade of underinvestment following the 2014 collapse, you can't snap your fingers and build a new deepwater rig. It takes years.\n\nMeanwhile the Mag 7 trade at nosebleed multiples while spending hundreds of billions on AI infrastructure that most CFOs say has produced no measurable returns.\n\nThe math isn't complicated.\n\nOil service companies with real cash flows and a structural supply tailwind versus sky-high valuations betting on a productivity revolution that hasn't shown up in the numbers.\n\nI've been saying it for months: long XLE, short XLK. One trade captures the entire rotation.\n\nThat trade is working. And I believe it has years to run, not months.\n\nIf you're still overweight tech and underweight energy after what happened this week, you're not investing.\n\nYou're HOPING.\n\nEnergy reality beats narrative.\n\nEvery. Single. Time.\n\n---\n\nIf you want more early ideas and insights I DON'T share on X...\n\nSign up for The Noble Update and become a founding member to get a FREE TICKET to the March 11 Best Stock Idea Summit.\n\nJoin thousands of investors navigating the market: \nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR6zC3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.014853654943374539, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.014853654943374539, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.007847728291424216, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.007847728291424216, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007005926651950323, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.05187855096828975, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05187855096828975, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05745422146019752, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05745422146019752, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "bench_c_p1d": -0.005575670491907769, "ret_p1w": 0.18010054535673503, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.18010054535673503, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.19294481885108816, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.19294481885108816, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "bench_c_p1w": -0.012844273494353131, "ret_p1m": 0.5063346641166468, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.5063346641166468, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.546486083195852, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.546486083195852, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "bench_c_p1m": -0.040151419079205164, "ret_p3m": 0.47990392762174205, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.47990392762174205, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.3697328270714204, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.3697328270714204, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "bench_c_p3m": 0.11017110055032164, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2145, -0.2301, -0.237, -0.2296, -0.2437, -0.2485, -0.2585, -0.2773, -0.2575, -0.2662, -0.257, -0.2384, -0.2322, -0.2333, -0.2333, -0.2521, -0.2397, -0.2383, -0.2446, -0.2446, -0.2468, -0.2331, -0.2517, -0.2596, -0.2296, -0.227, -0.2175, -0.1975, -0.207, -0.2231, -0.2175, -0.2175, -0.2152, -0.199, -0.2156, -0.1923, -0.1975, -0.1737, -0.1632, -0.1356, -0.1315, -0.1773, -0.1539, -0.1494, -0.1624, -0.1591, -0.1479, -0.1478, -0.1384, -0.1658, -0.1675, -0.1675, -0.1729, -0.1328, -0.1133, -0.117, -0.1164, -0.118, -0.1292, -0.1288, -0.105, -0.0477, -0.0149, 0.0, 0.0519, 0.188, 0.1395, 0.1562, 0.1801, 0.293, 0.3094, 0.2563, 0.2979, 0.3289, 0.2818, 0.3262, 0.2075, 0.251, 0.2384, 0.2807, 0.3565, 0.418, 0.3898, 0.3553, 0.5063, 0.5063, 0.5175, 0.5081, 0.3606, 0.3866, 0.3633, 0.4031, 0.3527, 0.3389, 0.3744, 0.2674, 0.325, 0.4007, 0.4133, 0.4714, 0.446, 0.4714, 0.5247, 0.6452, 0.6065, 0.5596, 0.6122, 0.5746, 0.463, 0.4741, 0.459, 0.5144, 0.576, 0.5513, 0.5618, 0.6189, 0.6305, 0.6706, 0.5757, 0.5568, 0.5391, 0.5391, 0.4963, 0.4311, 0.4284, 0.4099, 0.4799, 0.4992, 0.5384, 0.4934, 0.4528, 0.4761, 0.434, 0.4668, 0.4071, 0.3699, 0.3238, 0.2611, 0.2476, 0.2546, 0.2546, 0.2308, 0.2152, 0.1609, 0.1939, 0.152, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2006058348802671052", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-30T17:42:35+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The $OPEN stock price already excessively reflects any potential improvement that can reasonably be expected in the next 3 years.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: current price already excessively prices in all reasonable improvement over the next 3 years.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The $OPEN stock price already excessively reflects any potential improvement that can reasonably be expected in the next 3 years.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@InversorNovato_ @gnoble79 @VolaarRide @Anderson_2155 @nejatian Management Changed late last Sep.  Turn around plan was briefed in early Nov.  Company already beat sales 11 days ago.  Margin is tightened, lets see how much.  In Feb.\n\nI'm investing in the team and the future....", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.002935074714031427, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0004979560193262289, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": -0.002210323933803826, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0017123679144775972, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0017123679144775972, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.005696485054359934, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.007374191673935826, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009086559588413423, "ret_p1w": 0.18664377521766307, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.18664377521766307, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.1796569302567066, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.18713496888487047, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0004911936672074013, "ret_p1m": -0.01369861671503625, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.01369861671503625, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02594006424269446, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.016891042571478443, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0031924258564421937, "ret_p3m": -0.17808218059586356, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.17808218059586356, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.1035734291768895, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.1672500425829061, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.01083213801295746, "ret_p6m": -0.2671232708937953, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.2671232708937953, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.3400868031499439, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.3771875656046678, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": 0.11006429471087253, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.3716, 0.3887, 0.589, 0.5908, 0.4538, 0.3938, 0.2962, 0.2449, 0.3082, 0.2637, 0.2175, 0.226, 0.262, 0.1918, 0.1678, 0.2038, 0.3647, 0.3973, 0.3647, 0.3099, 0.2568, 0.3305, 0.2997, 0.1849, 0.238, 0.1233, 0.1233, 0.3647, 0.4521, 0.6045, 0.4658, 0.3904, 0.3425, 0.2877, 0.1455, 0.0548, 0.1558, 0.3168, 0.3253, 0.3322, 0.3322, 0.3185, 0.2226, 0.1969, 0.1884, 0.2979, 0.2243, 0.2072, 0.2688, 0.1986, 0.2072, 0.1233, 0.1079, 0.1524, 0.0479, 0.0753, 0.089, 0.0993, 0.0736, 0.0753, 0.0753, 0.0291, -0.0017, 0.0, -0.0017, -0.0017, 0.0394, 0.0822, 0.1866, 0.0479, 0.101, 0.2483, 0.2021, 0.1592, 0.137, 0.0788, 0.1421, 0.1421, 0.0942, 0.1096, 0.0993, 0.0291, 0.0051, -0.0051, -0.0137, -0.0445, -0.1182, -0.1747, -0.1216, -0.1438, -0.1952, -0.1644, -0.1541, -0.1969, -0.1849, -0.25, -0.2389, -0.2389, -0.2586, -0.2072, -0.2038, -0.1438, -0.1815, -0.125, -0.1473, -0.0736, -0.0719, -0.1353, -0.149, -0.1644, -0.113, -0.1438, -0.1301, -0.1421, -0.0976, -0.1712, -0.1524, -0.113, -0.0479, -0.0959, -0.1199, -0.1592, -0.1079, -0.113, -0.1267, -0.161, -0.1781, -0.2414, -0.1986, -0.2175, -0.1884, -0.1884, -0.2106, -0.2209, -0.2055, -0.262, -0.2603, -0.2534, -0.2277, -0.1747, -0.0976, -0.0942, -0.0839, -0.0668, -0.0702, -0.1062, -0.0565, -0.0771, -0.0616, -0.0445, -0.0788, -0.0685, -0.1216, -0.1045, -0.0651, -0.089, -0.1421, -0.1695, -0.1935, -0.2158, -0.2346, -0.25, -0.2671, -0.2637, -0.2466, -0.2175, -0.2243, -0.2243, -0.2329, -0.1866, -0.1318, -0.137, -0.0908, -0.0736, -0.1661, -0.1524, -0.2432, -0.262, -0.2568, -0.2329, -0.2346, -0.2397, -0.2106, -0.1866, -0.238, -0.2346, -0.2346, -0.2671, -0.2808, -0.2671]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2048816178290708798", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-04-27T17:26:56+00:00", "symbol": "ORCL", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Wall Street is WRONG about Oracle… why this will end HORRIBLY… This doesn't sound right, does it?", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish ORCL: massive debt ($206B liabilities, negative FCF), off-balance-sheet exposure, single unprofitable customer (OpenAI) behind half the backlog, data centers behind schedule, and GPU obsolescence risk.", "resolved_tickers": ["ORCL"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Wall Street is WRONG about Oracle.\n\n$ORCL is being pitched as the \"fourth hyperscaler.\" \n\nThe AI infrastructure play of a lifetime.\n\n35 out of 46 analysts have a buy rating. Consensus price target is $246.\n\nThe stock is at $172. Down 47% from its September high.\n\nNow let me explain what the bulls aren't telling you and why this will end HORRIBLY:\n\nOracle's non-current debt has ballooned to $124.7 billion. Up from $85.3 billion a year ago.\n\n A 46% increase in 12 months. \n\nTotal liabilities sit at $206 billion against shareholders' equity of $39 billion. That's a 5-to-1 leverage ratio on a company being pitched as a \"safe\" infrastructure play.\n\nBut that $124.7 billion isn't even the full picture...\n\nOracle has been using project financing structures (loans repaid from projected future cashflow) to keep tens of billions more in borrowing off its balance sheet entirely. So when analysts quote Oracle's debt load, they're UNDERSTATING the actual exposure by a meaningful margin.\n\nInterest expense jumped 32% YOY. Free cash flow is negative $24.7 billion on a trailing basis. The company is spending $48 billion a year in capex while generating roughly $17 billion in operating cash flow. \n\nThey issued $43 billion in senior notes in 9 months. They are borrowing at a pace that would make a leveraged buyout firm nervous.\n\nAnd what did they get for all that spending? They fired 30,000 people.\n\nOn March 31st, Oracle sent an email at 6 AM to tens of thousands of employees telling them their roles were eliminated. 18% of the global workforce gone in a single morning.\n\nTD Cowen estimates the layoffs save $8 to $10 billion in annual cash flow. Which tells you everything about the math:\n\nOracle can't fund $50 billion in AI capex AND keep 162,000 people on payroll. So the people went.\n\nNet income was up 95% last quarter. The stock is still down 47% from its high. \n\nMr. Market is telling you something.\n\nThe earnings look great on paper partly because Oracle extended the useful life of its servers to 6 years, reducing depreciation expense by billions. \n\nI've been flagging this accounting game across the hyperscalers for months. It flatters the income statement while the balance sheet quietly deteriorates.\n\nNow let's talk about the $553 billion in Remaining Performance Obligations that every bull cites as the \"reason\" to own this stock:\n\nRoughly $300 billion of that is a SINGLE contract with OpenAI through the Stargate project. Revenue doesn't start flowing until 2027. And OpenAI itself expects to lose over $167 billion through 2028 even if it hits $100 billion in annual revenue.\n\nSo Oracle is borrowing $125+ billion to build data centers for a customer that cannot even fund its own operations. \n\nAnd the data centers themselves are significantly behind schedule:\n\nThe flagship Stargate campus in Abilene has been under construction since mid-2024. 2 years later, only 2 of 8 planned buildings are operational, covering about 200 megawatts of the planned 1.2 gigawatts. \n\nThe remaining Stargate sites across Wisconsin, New Mexico, Michigan, and other locations are in the earliest stages of development. \n\nThe total estimated cost to build out Oracle's 7 gigawatts of planned Stargate capacity runs around $340 billion.\n\nAnd lenders are already getting nervous. \n\nThe Wall Street Journal reported that additional capacity at Abilene originally earmarked for OpenAI ended up going to Microsoft instead - because the banks financing the build were uncomfortable with their credit exposure to OpenAI as the ultimate customer.\n\nWhen your LENDERS don't trust your tenant's ability to pay, then there's SERIOUS issue.\n\nAnd by the time those data centers are fully built, the GPUs inside them will already be approaching obsolescence anyway.\n\nNvidia releases new architectures annually. Each generation delivers dramatically more compute per watt. The hardware goes obsolete in 3 years but the debt used to buy it gets repaid over a much longer horizon.\n\nThe AI infrastructure buildout is a treadmill, not a revolution. Oracle is the purest expression of that thesis.\n\n- $206 billion in reported liabilities. \n- Billions more hidden off-balance-sheet. \n- Negative $25 billion in free cash flow. \n- 30,000 people fired to fund the capex. \n- A single unprofitable customer behind over half the backlog. \n- Data centers years behind schedule.\n\nAnd 35 analysts saying buy.\n\nThis doesn't sound right, does it?\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.001850092813415971, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.001850092813415971, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0035699177574831653, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0035699177574831653, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0017198249440671942, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0017198249440671942, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04047178381289207, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04047178381289207, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03560579154577259, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.03560579154577259, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004865992267119479, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004865992267119479, "ret_p1w": 0.04237966170059093, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04237966170059093, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.038408577348396866, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.038408577348396866, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003971084352194065, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003971084352194065, "ret_p1m": 0.1162117834441263, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.1162117834441263, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.066685017663064, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.066685017663064, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0495267657810623, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0495267657810623, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.1162117834441263, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.066685017663064, "alpha_c_stated": -0.066685017663064, "price_path": [-0.0044, -0.0262, -0.0518, -0.0778, -0.1089, -0.155, -0.2137, -0.1771, -0.0978, -0.0788, -0.0945, -0.0984, -0.0773, -0.0773, -0.1129, -0.1002, -0.0981, -0.1468, -0.1858, -0.158, -0.1479, -0.134, -0.1623, -0.1401, -0.1415, -0.1221, -0.1082, -0.1187, -0.1268, -0.1392, -0.0602, -0.083, -0.1063, -0.1014, -0.1087, -0.1191, -0.104, -0.1376, -0.1108, -0.1525, -0.1587, -0.1772, -0.1953, -0.2003, -0.1524, -0.1632, -0.1566, -0.1566, -0.1615, -0.1751, -0.1723, -0.2029, -0.2016, -0.1003, -0.0576, -0.0182, 0.0311, 0.0121, 0.0267, 0.0475, 0.0841, 0.0192, 0.0019, 0.0, -0.0405, -0.0528, -0.0669, -0.0065, 0.0424, 0.0716, 0.1218, 0.1251, 0.1329, 0.1207, 0.0802, 0.0971, 0.131, 0.1156, 0.0789, 0.0491, 0.0879, 0.0972, 0.1105, 0.1105, 0.1162, 0.1041, 0.1777, 0.3054, 0.4347, 0.4141, 0.3317, 0.3664, 0.2354, 0.2247, 0.1899, 0.1636, 0.0644, 0.0646, 0.1138, 0.0889, 0.0611, 0.0655, 0.0655, 0.0122, -0.0451, -0.0892, -0.1185, -0.1412, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2019134334943523003", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-04T19:41:53+00:00", "symbol": "IWM", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$IWM is total garbage. 40% of companies are loss making. AVOID.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid IWM; 40% of constituents are unprofitable makes it uninvestable.", "resolved_tickers": ["IWM"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$IWM is total garbage. \n40% of companies are loss making.\nAVOID.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.008674981273549154, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.008674981273549154, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.003807550424501649, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.003807550424501649, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004867430849047505, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.018002447612989192, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.018002447612989192, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.005513163552664957, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.005513163552664957, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "bench_c_p1d": -0.012489284060324235, "ret_p1w": 0.017004487760994058, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.017004487760994058, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.008595733378155668, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.008595733378155668, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00840875438283839, "ret_p1m": -0.014432659118369995, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.014432659118369995, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.007320860939205698, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.007320860939205698, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "bench_c_p1m": -0.007111798179164297, "ret_p3m": 0.06853339895432997, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.06853339895432997, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.019303788614376982, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.019303788614376982, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04922961033995299, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.014432659118369995, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.007320860939205698, "alpha_c_stated": 0.007320860939205698, "price_path": [-0.0757, -0.0664, -0.0656, -0.0679, -0.0941, -0.0915, -0.1095, -0.1068, -0.107, -0.1235, -0.0987, -0.0822, -0.0622, -0.0539, -0.0539, -0.0484, -0.0603, -0.0621, -0.045, -0.0366, -0.0406, -0.0403, -0.0383, -0.0252, -0.0137, -0.0289, -0.0362, -0.0408, -0.051, -0.0453, -0.0373, -0.0266, -0.0324, -0.03, -0.03, -0.0349, -0.0408, -0.0479, -0.0551, -0.0551, -0.0451, -0.0299, -0.017, -0.0193, -0.0086, -0.0011, 0.0038, 0.0032, 0.0102, 0.0192, 0.0201, 0.0201, 0.0079, 0.0279, 0.0356, 0.0165, 0.0133, 0.0162, 0.0107, 0.0109, -0.0033, 0.0064, 0.0087, 0.0, -0.018, 0.0173, 0.0244, 0.0216, 0.017, -0.0038, 0.0094, 0.0094, 0.0097, 0.0133, 0.0157, 0.0157, -0.0001, 0.0108, 0.0156, 0.021, 0.0034, 0.0126, -0.0049, 0.0048, -0.0144, -0.037, -0.0265, -0.0275, -0.0294, -0.0503, -0.0535, -0.0445, -0.0385, -0.054, -0.0478, -0.0686, -0.0485, -0.0434, -0.0317, -0.0485, -0.0652, -0.0786, -0.0464, -0.0404, -0.0337, -0.0337, -0.0296, -0.0275, 0.0016, 0.0073, 0.0048, 0.0193, 0.0333, 0.0359, 0.038, 0.0605, 0.0665, 0.0556, 0.0631, 0.0595, 0.0638, 0.0657, 0.0533, 0.0462, 0.0689, 0.0739, 0.0685, 0.0865, 0.1028, 0.0854, 0.0927, 0.0972, 0.0866, 0.087, 0.0938, 0.0675, 0.0612, 0.0498, 0.0762, 0.0863, 0.0964, 0.0964, 0.1171, 0.1166, 0.1229, 0.1168, 0.1112, 0.1215, 0.1062, 0.1229, 0.083, 0.0925, 0.096, 0.0846, 0.1167, 0.1265, 0.1357, 0.1258, 0.1173, 0.1393, 0.1393, 0.1493, 0.1383, 0.1436, 0.1521, 0.1557, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2025737826864681151", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-23T01:01:48+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "JUST SAY NO TO $OPEN", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Decisive avoid/sell instruction on OPEN; endorses view that it's overvalued at $4B+ with little revenue and cash burn.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TRUTH \nJUST SAY NO TO $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @APompliano @rabois @ericjackson @andrewrsorkin @SaraEisen I can't believe there hasn't been a metaphorical uprising against this guy. He blocked me on two accounts so I don't read any of his stuff anymore.\n\nHow can anyone think, that OPEN, a company with little revenue and a cash-burning machine, is severely undervalued at over $4B?", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04602505868937423, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.04602505868937423, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0357083449098885, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04717162091260518, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.010316713779485731, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0011465622232309514, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0690376379124229, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.0690376379124229, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06176916264222454, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.06628604847532826, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00726847527019836, "bench_c_p1d": 0.002751589437094637, "ret_p1w": 0.0564853491789572, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.0564853491789572, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.050638306190611715, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.049377054258315844, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.0058470429883454855, "bench_c_p1w": 0.007108294920641356, "ret_p1m": 0.08368192488977133, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.08368192488977133, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.12387326434961443, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.15360161134626604, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0401913394598431, "bench_c_p1m": -0.06991968645649471, "ret_p3m": -0.04393306044549161, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.04393306044549161, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.13531529453816005, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.07119969057235342, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09138223409266844, "bench_c_p3m": 0.027266630126861813, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.08368192488977133, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.12387326434961443, "alpha_c_stated": -0.15360161134626604, "price_path": [0.6276, 0.6276, 0.6109, 0.4937, 0.4623, 0.4519, 0.5858, 0.4958, 0.4749, 0.5502, 0.4644, 0.4749, 0.3724, 0.3536, 0.4079, 0.2803, 0.3138, 0.3305, 0.3431, 0.3117, 0.3138, 0.3138, 0.2573, 0.2197, 0.2218, 0.2197, 0.2197, 0.2699, 0.3222, 0.4498, 0.2803, 0.3452, 0.5251, 0.4686, 0.4163, 0.3891, 0.318, 0.3954, 0.3954, 0.3368, 0.3556, 0.3431, 0.2573, 0.228, 0.2155, 0.205, 0.1674, 0.0774, 0.0084, 0.0732, 0.046, -0.0167, 0.0209, 0.0335, -0.0188, -0.0042, -0.0837, -0.0701, -0.0701, -0.0941, -0.0314, -0.0272, 0.046, 0.0, 0.069, 0.0418, 0.1318, 0.1339, 0.0565, 0.0397, 0.0209, 0.0837, 0.046, 0.0628, 0.0481, 0.1025, 0.0126, 0.0356, 0.0837, 0.1632, 0.1046, 0.0753, 0.0272, 0.09, 0.0837, 0.0669, 0.0251, 0.0042, -0.0732, -0.0209, -0.0439, -0.0084, -0.0084, -0.0356, -0.0481, -0.0293, -0.0983, -0.0962, -0.0879, -0.0565, 0.0084, 0.1025, 0.1067, 0.1192, 0.1402, 0.136, 0.0921, 0.1527, 0.1276, 0.1464, 0.1674, 0.1255, 0.1381, 0.0732, 0.0941, 0.1423, 0.113, 0.0481, 0.0146, -0.0146, -0.0418, -0.0649, -0.0837, -0.1046, -0.1004, -0.0795, -0.0439, -0.0523, -0.0523, -0.0628, -0.0063, 0.0607, 0.0544, 0.1109, 0.1318, 0.0188, 0.0356, -0.0753, -0.0983, -0.0921, -0.0628, -0.0649, -0.0711, -0.0356, -0.0063, -0.069, -0.0649, -0.0649, -0.1046, -0.1213, -0.1046, -0.1004, -0.0858, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2005886766293594544", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2025-12-30T06:20:47+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Tesla is now on track to report its second year of declining auto sales. I expect sales to decline again in 2026. SELL!!!", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "quarters", "summary": "Short TSLA: Q4 deliveries imploding (~406k vs 440k street), second straight year of declining auto sales expected into 2026.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Looks awful. As predicted $TSLA sales are imploding this quarter. \n\n$TSLA released updated consensus statement with Q4 deliveries \n\n~425k vs Street ~440k 📉\n\nThat’s a 15k haircut to expectations \n\nThe best analyst I know is predicting \n406k! That would be a 18% decline YOY.\n\nTesla is now on track to report its second year of declining auto sales. I expect sales to decline again in 2026.\n\nSELL!!!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 I’ll just leave this right here.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "FallofRome", "ret_m1d": 0.011464960624580467, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.011464960624580467, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.010242253825026637, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.007393843971804648, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0012227067995538299, "bench_c_m1d": 0.004071116652775819, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010364613980130777, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010364613980130777, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0029557610112932453, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0024716664837826086, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0074088529688375315, "bench_c_p1d": -0.007892947496348168, "ret_p1w": -0.04724600393183376, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.04724600393183376, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05423284889279023, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05314498316467742, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.006986844960956473, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00589897923284366, "ret_p1m": -0.050546842397991454, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.050546842397991454, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.06278828992564967, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06226168437993651, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.012241447527658211, "bench_c_p1m": 0.011714841981945057, "ret_p3m": -0.20377177474195074, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.20377177474195074, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.12926302332297668, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.08356815590370792, "bench_spy_p3m": -0.07450875141897406, "bench_c_p3m": -0.12020361883824282, "ret_p6m": -0.1736240898887511, "ret_signed_p6m": 0.1736240898887511, "alpha_spy_p6m": 0.2465876221448997, "alpha_c_p6m": 0.13350205757998646, "bench_spy_p6m": 0.0729635322561486, "bench_c_p6m": -0.040122032308764655, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 63, "stated_label": "p3m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.20377177474195074, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.12926302332297668, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08356815590370792, "price_path": [-0.0406, -0.0541, -0.0026, -0.047, -0.0346, -0.0416, -0.0901, -0.0408, -0.0554, -0.0424, -0.0565, -0.0333, -0.0154, -0.026, -0.034, -0.012, -0.0456, -0.0044, 0.0135, 0.0156, -0.0315, 0.0047, 0.0307, -0.0224, 0.0168, -0.0187, -0.0548, -0.0202, -0.0326, -0.0524, -0.1154, -0.1102, -0.1001, -0.117, -0.111, -0.1303, -0.1394, -0.0807, -0.0771, -0.0613, -0.0613, -0.0534, -0.0535, -0.0554, -0.0169, 0.0002, 0.0013, -0.0327, -0.0204, -0.0066, -0.0166, 0.01, 0.0459, 0.078, 0.0282, 0.0637, 0.0589, 0.0755, 0.0685, 0.0682, 0.0682, 0.0457, 0.0115, 0.0, -0.0104, -0.0104, -0.036, -0.0061, -0.0472, -0.0507, -0.041, -0.0207, -0.012, -0.0159, -0.0335, -0.0349, -0.0373, -0.0373, -0.0774, -0.0506, -0.0112, -0.0118, -0.0423, -0.0518, -0.0505, -0.0833, -0.0529, -0.0718, -0.0715, -0.1066, -0.1259, -0.0953, -0.0817, -0.0643, -0.0576, -0.0822, -0.0814, -0.0814, -0.0964, -0.0949, -0.094, -0.0938, -0.1202, -0.0991, -0.0815, -0.1009, -0.1143, -0.1125, -0.1364, -0.1067, -0.1076, -0.127, -0.1227, -0.1214, -0.1026, -0.1308, -0.1391, -0.1295, -0.1214, -0.1357, -0.1631, -0.1903, -0.1619, -0.1571, -0.1507, -0.1812, -0.2038, -0.2182, -0.1819, -0.161, -0.2065, -0.2065, -0.2236, -0.2372, -0.2447, -0.2394, -0.2321, -0.2245, -0.1986, -0.1375, -0.1442, -0.1184, -0.1363, -0.1497, -0.1473, -0.1776, -0.1719, -0.1667, -0.1725, -0.1796, -0.1602, -0.14, -0.1363, -0.1432, -0.1226, -0.0938, -0.0574, -0.0208, -0.0462, -0.0202, -0.0245, -0.0708, -0.0978, -0.1107, -0.0818, -0.0805, -0.0625, -0.0625, -0.0459, -0.031, -0.0271, -0.041, -0.0848, -0.0675, -0.0676, -0.0792, -0.1396, -0.1001, -0.1271, -0.1603, -0.1216, -0.1056, -0.0952, -0.1095, -0.1277, -0.1187, -0.1187, -0.1087, -0.1602, -0.1736]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2018711202268885224", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-02-03T15:40:31+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Look instead at sectors that have suffered from years of underinvestment: energy and commodities.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid AI infrastructure; long energy, commodities, and emerging markets as underinvested alternatives; bearish on Mag7-heavy S&P500 as capital misallocation unwinds.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE default energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "SpaceX just acquired xAI in a deal valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion.\n\nElon says it's about building \"data centers in space.\"\n\nBut let me translate what's really happening here...\n\nxAI is burning through $1 billion per month.\n\nThe company generated $107 million in revenue last quarter while hemorrhaging $1.46 billion in losses. It burned nearly $8 billion in cash through the first nine months of 2025.\n\nThat's not a business.\n\nSpaceX meanwhile generated $8 billion in profit on $15-16 billion of revenue last year. It's the ONLY Musk company that actually prints money.\n\nSo what do you do when your AI startup is drowning in red ink ahead of your mega-IPO?\n\nYou fold the cash-burner into the entity that can still raise absurd amounts of capital.\n\nAnd we've literally seen this exact thing before:\n\nIn 2016, Tesla acquired SolarCity for $2.6 billion. \n\nSolarCity was bleeding cash, drowning in debt, and trading near all-time lows. \n\nTesla - the only Musk company at the time that could access the capital markets - absorbed it.\n\nWall Street analysts called it a \"bailout dressed as synergy.\" Tesla's stock dropped 10% on the announcement.\n\nThe SpaceX/xAI deal is the same playbook. \n\nMusk's stated rationale - that AI compute will be cheaper in space within 2-3 years - is the kind of thing that sounds visionary until you think about it for 5 seconds...\n\nSpaceX builds rockets. xAI trains large language models. \n\nThese are wildly different businesses with zero operational overlap.\n\nImagine Microsoft acquiring a cement and steel conglomerate and claiming \"tilt-up concrete slabs are essential for data centers.\"\n\nThat's the level of logic we're working with here.\n\nThe real play is simple: prop up xAI's insane burn rate with SpaceX's funding access ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history.\n\nAnd xAI isn't alone in this capital-devouring spiral.\n\nThe entire AI sector has become a web of companies cross-subsidizing each other's losses. \n\nOpenAI squeezes billions from Microsoft. Nvidia invests billions in xAI while selling them chips.\n\nEveryone's propping everyone else up.\n\nThe investment thesis across the industry has devolved into: \n\n\"Please keep the Ponzi spinning long enough for someone else to be left holding the bag.\"\n\nMeanwhile, the end product - AI - delivers marginal productivity gains for trillions in capex, soaring power costs, and balance sheet carnage.\n\nIf these services were priced to reflect their true economic cost, most users would find negative value.\n\nBut investors stopped reading balance sheets and cash flows long ago.\n\nThe AI models probably can't read them either.\n\nWhat a time to be invested.\n\nSo what's the play?\n\nAVOID the AI infrastructure complex. \n\nWhen everyone's propping everyone else up, you don't want to be holding the bag when the music stops.\n\nLook instead at sectors that have suffered from years of underinvestment: energy and commodities.\n\nWhile trillions have been funneled into AI infrastructure, capital spending in oil, gas, and metals has been starved. \n\nThat's how cycles work - underinvestment leads to supply constraints, which leads to rising returns on capital.\n\nTech has the opposite problem. Overinvestment is destroying returns. \n\nWhen you're burning $1 billion a month to generate $107 million in revenue, that's not a business model - it's a wealth transfer from investors to chip manufacturers.\n\nEmerging markets are also attractive here. \n\nThey've been ignored while capital chased the Mag 7, and valuations reflect that neglect.\n\nThe Mag 7 now represent roughly a third of the S&P 500. \n\nWhen this unravels - and it will - capital will rotate into the parts of the market where returns on capital are rising, not collapsing.\n\nEnergy. Commodities. Emerging markets.\n\nPOSITION ACCORDINGLY\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR77rB https://t.co/2iyrHvbMcg", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03135277108588841, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03135277108588841, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03988026019827429, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03988026019827429, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.02245024419003161, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02245024419003161, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.027294097916024995, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.027294097916024995, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "ret_p1w": 0.03696542569136163, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03696542569136163, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03320926553531334, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03320926553531334, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "ret_p1m": 0.08747826929140912, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08747826929140912, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09385938117176729, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.09385938117176729, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "bench_c_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "ret_p3m": 0.1464004021944656, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.1464004021944656, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.09841392116747927, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.09841392116747927, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08747826929140912, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09385938117176729, "alpha_c_stated": 0.09385938117176729, "price_path": [-0.153, -0.1409, -0.1331, -0.1218, -0.1341, -0.1318, -0.1171, -0.1332, -0.1263, -0.1376, -0.1474, -0.142, -0.1444, -0.1498, -0.1434, -0.1434, -0.1321, -0.1238, -0.1351, -0.1189, -0.1151, -0.1188, -0.1284, -0.123, -0.1138, -0.118, -0.1267, -0.1328, -0.1593, -0.1407, -0.1531, -0.1531, -0.1444, -0.1388, -0.1413, -0.1413, -0.1446, -0.1364, -0.1299, -0.1347, -0.1347, -0.1165, -0.0925, -0.1167, -0.1266, -0.0991, -0.0968, -0.1032, -0.0904, -0.0699, -0.0786, -0.077, -0.077, -0.0788, -0.0565, -0.0534, -0.048, -0.0474, -0.0387, -0.0314, -0.0225, -0.012, -0.0314, 0.0, 0.0225, 0.0105, 0.0306, 0.0381, 0.037, 0.0641, 0.0447, 0.0519, 0.0519, 0.0403, 0.0602, 0.0679, 0.0621, 0.0674, 0.0664, 0.0619, 0.0654, 0.0823, 0.1039, 0.0939, 0.0875, 0.0931, 0.0948, 0.09, 0.0761, 0.1028, 0.113, 0.1167, 0.1206, 0.1324, 0.1308, 0.1488, 0.1479, 0.1616, 0.1852, 0.1799, 0.1984, 0.2187, 0.207, 0.1933, 0.1487, 0.1542, 0.1542, 0.1626, 0.1719, 0.1308, 0.1168, 0.1092, 0.1125, 0.0899, 0.0862, 0.1022, 0.0718, 0.0728, 0.0883, 0.1014, 0.11, 0.1078, 0.1059, 0.1242, 0.1499, 0.162, 0.1464, 0.1569, 0.1581, 0.1104, 0.0899, 0.085, 0.1137, 0.1215, 0.1226, 0.1312, 0.1579, 0.1801, 0.1939, 0.1649, 0.1519, 0.1589, 0.1589, 0.1269, 0.1102, 0.1094, 0.0965, 0.1162, 0.1291, 0.1437, 0.1445, 0.1234, 0.1363, 0.118, 0.1347, 0.1127, 0.1211, 0.0821, 0.0784, 0.065, 0.0474, 0.0474, 0.0607, 0.0685, 0.0511, 0.0613, 0.0564, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2018711202268885224", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-02-03T15:40:31+00:00", "symbol": "commodities", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "energy and commodities. While trillions have been funneled into AI infrastructure, capital spending in oil, gas, and metals has been starved.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Avoid AI infrastructure; long energy, commodities, and emerging markets as underinvested alternatives; bearish on Mag7-heavy S&P500 as capital misallocation unwinds.", "resolved_tickers": ["DJP"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Broad commodities basket; DJP tracks Bloomberg Commodity", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "SpaceX just acquired xAI in a deal valuing the combined entity at $1.25 trillion.\n\nElon says it's about building \"data centers in space.\"\n\nBut let me translate what's really happening here...\n\nxAI is burning through $1 billion per month.\n\nThe company generated $107 million in revenue last quarter while hemorrhaging $1.46 billion in losses. It burned nearly $8 billion in cash through the first nine months of 2025.\n\nThat's not a business.\n\nSpaceX meanwhile generated $8 billion in profit on $15-16 billion of revenue last year. It's the ONLY Musk company that actually prints money.\n\nSo what do you do when your AI startup is drowning in red ink ahead of your mega-IPO?\n\nYou fold the cash-burner into the entity that can still raise absurd amounts of capital.\n\nAnd we've literally seen this exact thing before:\n\nIn 2016, Tesla acquired SolarCity for $2.6 billion. \n\nSolarCity was bleeding cash, drowning in debt, and trading near all-time lows. \n\nTesla - the only Musk company at the time that could access the capital markets - absorbed it.\n\nWall Street analysts called it a \"bailout dressed as synergy.\" Tesla's stock dropped 10% on the announcement.\n\nThe SpaceX/xAI deal is the same playbook. \n\nMusk's stated rationale - that AI compute will be cheaper in space within 2-3 years - is the kind of thing that sounds visionary until you think about it for 5 seconds...\n\nSpaceX builds rockets. xAI trains large language models. \n\nThese are wildly different businesses with zero operational overlap.\n\nImagine Microsoft acquiring a cement and steel conglomerate and claiming \"tilt-up concrete slabs are essential for data centers.\"\n\nThat's the level of logic we're working with here.\n\nThe real play is simple: prop up xAI's insane burn rate with SpaceX's funding access ahead of what could be the largest IPO in history.\n\nAnd xAI isn't alone in this capital-devouring spiral.\n\nThe entire AI sector has become a web of companies cross-subsidizing each other's losses. \n\nOpenAI squeezes billions from Microsoft. Nvidia invests billions in xAI while selling them chips.\n\nEveryone's propping everyone else up.\n\nThe investment thesis across the industry has devolved into: \n\n\"Please keep the Ponzi spinning long enough for someone else to be left holding the bag.\"\n\nMeanwhile, the end product - AI - delivers marginal productivity gains for trillions in capex, soaring power costs, and balance sheet carnage.\n\nIf these services were priced to reflect their true economic cost, most users would find negative value.\n\nBut investors stopped reading balance sheets and cash flows long ago.\n\nThe AI models probably can't read them either.\n\nWhat a time to be invested.\n\nSo what's the play?\n\nAVOID the AI infrastructure complex. \n\nWhen everyone's propping everyone else up, you don't want to be holding the bag when the music stops.\n\nLook instead at sectors that have suffered from years of underinvestment: energy and commodities.\n\nWhile trillions have been funneled into AI infrastructure, capital spending in oil, gas, and metals has been starved. \n\nThat's how cycles work - underinvestment leads to supply constraints, which leads to rising returns on capital.\n\nTech has the opposite problem. Overinvestment is destroying returns. \n\nWhen you're burning $1 billion a month to generate $107 million in revenue, that's not a business model - it's a wealth transfer from investors to chip manufacturers.\n\nEmerging markets are also attractive here. \n\nThey've been ignored while capital chased the Mag 7, and valuations reflect that neglect.\n\nThe Mag 7 now represent roughly a third of the S&P 500. \n\nWhen this unravels - and it will - capital will rotate into the parts of the market where returns on capital are rising, not collapsing.\n\nEnergy. Commodities. Emerging markets.\n\nPOSITION ACCORDINGLY\n\n---\n\nSign up for my substack as I will be posting higher value added content there. \n\nFocus is on actionable ideas, both long and short. No endless talk about the Fed and the economy. \nMaking money will be the objective. \n\nJoin below:\n\nhttps://t.co/W5q1RR77rB https://t.co/2iyrHvbMcg", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.02791934327562573, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.02791934327562573, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03644683238801161, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.03644683238801161, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008527489112385878, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.004855566147306645, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.004855566147306645, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.00969941987330003, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.00969941987330003, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004843853725993386, "ret_p1w": 0.0007283951200398597, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0007283951200398597, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.003027765036008434, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.003027765036008434, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "bench_c_p1w": 0.003756160156048294, "ret_p1m": 0.06457877970618031, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.06457877970618031, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07095989158653848, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.07095989158653848, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "bench_c_p1m": -0.00638111188035817, "ret_p3m": 0.2177713406109869, "ret_signed_p3m": 0.2177713406109869, "alpha_spy_p3m": 0.16978485958400058, "alpha_c_p3m": 0.16978485958400058, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "bench_c_p3m": 0.04798648102698633, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.06457877970618031, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07095989158653848, "alpha_c_stated": 0.07095989158653848, "price_path": [-0.1146, -0.1119, -0.0959, -0.0872, -0.0874, -0.0913, -0.0981, -0.1008, -0.0949, -0.0983, -0.1095, -0.1114, -0.1068, -0.1117, -0.0981, -0.0981, -0.0818, -0.0767, -0.0818, -0.0777, -0.0753, -0.067, -0.0835, -0.0896, -0.0838, -0.0813, -0.0935, -0.0969, -0.1063, -0.0942, -0.1027, -0.0966, -0.0847, -0.0699, -0.0702, -0.0702, -0.0566, -0.0784, -0.0699, -0.0869, -0.0869, -0.0855, -0.0663, -0.0568, -0.0646, -0.0646, -0.0622, -0.0473, -0.041, -0.0376, -0.0461, -0.049, -0.049, -0.0286, -0.0107, -0.0095, 0.0107, 0.0221, 0.0369, 0.0481, 0.0636, 0.0308, -0.0279, 0.0, 0.0049, -0.0121, -0.0046, 0.0012, 0.0007, 0.007, -0.0129, -0.0117, -0.0117, -0.0269, -0.0036, 0.0061, 0.017, 0.0204, 0.0192, 0.0204, 0.0226, 0.0364, 0.0597, 0.0595, 0.0646, 0.0782, 0.1262, 0.1078, 0.1192, 0.1367, 0.1639, 0.1585, 0.1374, 0.1498, 0.1668, 0.1486, 0.1493, 0.1049, 0.1214, 0.1219, 0.1292, 0.1588, 0.1678, 0.1687, 0.1561, 0.1872, 0.1872, 0.1911, 0.1867, 0.1364, 0.142, 0.1345, 0.1474, 0.1486, 0.1476, 0.1563, 0.1335, 0.1447, 0.1602, 0.1702, 0.1831, 0.1792, 0.1879, 0.1979, 0.2197, 0.2243, 0.2178, 0.2336, 0.227, 0.1969, 0.1966, 0.1979, 0.2311, 0.2537, 0.2454, 0.2333, 0.2251, 0.2374, 0.2452, 0.2202, 0.21, 0.2017, 0.2017, 0.1877, 0.169, 0.1835, 0.1748, 0.1879, 0.1925, 0.1928, 0.1784, 0.1447, 0.1474, 0.1326, 0.1323, 0.1231, 0.1165, 0.1095, 0.1046, 0.0971, 0.0927, 0.0927, 0.0857, 0.0699, 0.0478, 0.0677, 0.0597, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2026970210830291399", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-02-26T10:38:52+00:00", "symbol": "gold miners", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "American retail still hasn't arrived in size. When they do, the re-rating of these equities is going to catch a lot of people off guard. The miners are where the REAL MONEY is being made.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Long gold miners: retail hasn't arrived yet, re-rating ahead; discipline on capital allocation makes this cycle different from 2011-2013.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GDX is the primary gold miners ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "When I wrote this post, I said the earnings surprises coming out of gold miners were going to be massive...\n\nAND THEY WERE\n\nMiners are now realizing $3,500 per ounce in margin. Major producers reported profit expansion above 170%. The gold miners ETF is up another 10% in 2026 after returning 155% last year.\n\nAnd the part that matters most: \n\nThey didn't blow it this time.\n\nNo reckless dilution. No chasing marginal projects at the top of the cost curve. \n\nDividends up. Buybacks up. \n\nBalance sheets the healthiest they've been in a decade.\n\nThat's what's different about this cycle. The miners finally LEARNED from 2011-2013.\n\nWhen I said major gold stocks trading at 10x earnings was too cheap, people shrugged. Now those same companies are generating free cash flow that rivals Big Tech - at a fraction of the multiple.\n\nAmerican retail still hasn't arrived in size. \n\nWhen they do, the re-rating of these equities is going to catch a lot of people off guard.\n\nThe gold price gets the headlines...\n\nBut the miners are where the REAL MONEY is being made.\n\ni've said it last year, I've said it 2 weeks ago, and I'm saying it now again.\n\nThis is huge.\n\n---\n\nThe Noble Update PREMIUM Substack is LIVE, including:\n\n- Exclusive access to selected research reports that institutions pay $25k+ for\n- Best stock picks multiple times per month\n- FREE access to our Best Stock IDEAS SUMMIT if you sign up for the founding member plan\n\nAnd so much more!\n\nJoin here:\nhttps://t.co/84R6JwvxlM", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.023970460463337173, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.023970460463337173, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.029555930230399707, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.029555930230399707, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "bench_c_m1d": 0.005585469767062534, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.017121757473812282, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.017121757473812282, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02192369833242358, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02192369833242358, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "bench_c_p1d": -0.004801940858611298, "ret_p1w": -0.10597945174737855, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.10597945174737855, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.09438799522126018, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.09438799522126018, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "bench_c_p1w": -0.011591456526118371, "ret_p1m": -0.24672928812637374, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.24672928812637374, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.16914586148081834, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.16914586148081834, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "bench_c_p1m": -0.0775834266455554, "ret_p3m": -0.22293440623159888, "ret_signed_p3m": -0.22293440623159888, "alpha_spy_p3m": -0.3148246683879804, "alpha_c_p3m": -0.3148246683879804, "bench_spy_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "bench_c_p3m": 0.09189026215638152, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.24672928812637374, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.16914586148081834, "alpha_c_stated": -0.16914586148081834, "price_path": [-0.2781, -0.2886, -0.2934, -0.2905, -0.2937, -0.31, -0.2857, -0.2737, -0.2481, -0.2533, -0.2604, -0.2605, -0.2518, -0.2532, -0.2347, -0.2082, -0.2074, -0.2124, -0.2124, -0.1984, -0.2462, -0.2375, -0.2469, -0.2469, -0.2473, -0.2234, -0.191, -0.2005, -0.1962, -0.1873, -0.1595, -0.153, -0.1495, -0.1473, -0.1462, -0.1462, -0.0976, -0.1106, -0.0766, -0.0603, -0.0563, -0.0404, -0.0152, -0.0519, -0.1729, -0.173, -0.1376, -0.1334, -0.1883, -0.1449, -0.0966, -0.0955, -0.0695, -0.1371, -0.0874, -0.0874, -0.1198, -0.0995, -0.0847, -0.067, -0.0316, -0.028, -0.024, 0.0, 0.0171, 0.0127, -0.076, -0.0703, -0.106, -0.1098, -0.1005, -0.0924, -0.11, -0.1281, -0.1811, -0.1713, -0.175, -0.2264, -0.2721, -0.2965, -0.2679, -0.2668, -0.2421, -0.2766, -0.2467, -0.2467, -0.1942, -0.157, -0.1695, -0.1695, -0.1762, -0.1661, -0.1379, -0.1364, -0.1273, -0.1327, -0.1154, -0.1415, -0.1425, -0.119, -0.1296, -0.1835, -0.1704, -0.1905, -0.1717, -0.187, -0.2226, -0.243, -0.2248, -0.2351, -0.248, -0.2466, -0.1883, -0.1947, -0.1695, -0.143, -0.1471, -0.1551, -0.1751, -0.233, -0.2349, -0.2644, -0.2417, -0.245, -0.2535, -0.2535, -0.2229, -0.2498, -0.2345, -0.2142, -0.2389, -0.2269, -0.2537, -0.2414, -0.3078, -0.3092, -0.3187, -0.3519, -0.3176, -0.2973, -0.2513, -0.234, -0.2593, -0.2755, -0.2755, -0.2849, -0.3181, -0.3451, -0.3356, -0.3239, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2054654658061189455", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-13T20:06:58+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Just say no to $TSLA.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Urges avoiding TSLA, citing capital misallocation, regulatory capture, and market fraud risks.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Lack of price discovery combined with regulatory capture and grift is  a disaster for our country.\n\n@elonmusk is a grave threat to our financial markets and economy.\n\nThe misallocation of capital is occurring on a scale never seen before.\n\nThe collapse will be epic. \n\nThe losses will be stupendous. \n\nThe feckless @SECGov is totally MIA.\n\nThe investments banks are enabling \nthe legal fraud.\n\nElon Musk must be stopped.\n\nJust say no to $TSLA.\n\nJust say no to SpaceX.\n\nI urge everyone to rise up against this\ninsanity before all is lost. \n\n@DougKass @BradMunchen @biancoresearch @LukeGromen @GordonJohnson19", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 Is this a new market structure regime created by passive investing, central bank liquidity, venture capital abundance, and winner take most network effects? It feels like markets today are driven by liquidity, narratives, &amp; capital flows rather than traditional valuation anchors.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.004443946029665025, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004443946029665025, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.012276428848364329, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.004022581637462164, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007832482818699305, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0004213643922028609, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04750732717914996, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04750732717914996, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.035477983422353754, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.029474142269238945, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012029343756796207, "bench_c_p1d": -0.018033184909911015, "ret_p1w": -0.0574102918796805, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0574102918796805, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05012579823107943, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05766307186362851, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007284493648601065, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00025277998394801493, "ret_p1m": -0.08317165831821915, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08317165831821915, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07459072044047976, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06572835778980979, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.008580937877739392, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017443300528409367, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08317165831821915, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07459072044047976, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06572835778980979, "price_path": [-0.0583, -0.0737, -0.0721, -0.0713, -0.071, -0.0981, -0.0765, -0.0584, -0.0783, -0.092, -0.0902, -0.1148, -0.0843, -0.0852, -0.1051, -0.1007, -0.0994, -0.08, -0.1089, -0.1175, -0.1077, -0.0993, -0.114, -0.1421, -0.17, -0.1409, -0.136, -0.1294, -0.1606, -0.1838, -0.1986, -0.1614, -0.14, -0.1866, -0.1866, -0.2041, -0.218, -0.2257, -0.2203, -0.2128, -0.205, -0.1784, -0.1158, -0.1227, -0.0963, -0.1146, -0.1283, -0.1259, -0.157, -0.1511, -0.1458, -0.1518, -0.159, -0.1391, -0.1184, -0.1146, -0.1217, -0.1005, -0.0711, -0.0337, 0.0038, -0.0222, 0.0044, 0.0, -0.0475, -0.0751, -0.0884, -0.0587, -0.0574, -0.039, -0.039, -0.0219, -0.0066, -0.0027, -0.0169, -0.0619, -0.0441, -0.0442, -0.0561, -0.118, -0.0775, -0.1052, -0.1392, -0.0996, -0.0832, -0.0725, -0.0872, -0.1058, -0.0966, -0.0966, -0.0863, -0.1392, -0.1529, -0.1538, -0.1434, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2054666295442907629", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-13T20:53:13+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Fair value is $1.50 . Still big downside in store for $OPEN", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short OPEN; fair value pegged at $1.50 with significant further downside ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@JKFortySeven Fair value is $1.50 . Still big downside in store for $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Hey man I have a question if you are willing, ive asked and you answered before but I still just want to understand your full \"play\" as this plays out.\n\nYou're almost 50% in the green... have or will you take profits? Let me get more detailed...\n\nI dont ask to argue or \"gotcha\"", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "JKFortySeven", "ret_m1d": 0.024608532142612827, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.024608532142612827, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03244101496131213, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.01777637945013466, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007832482818699305, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006832152692478166, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02013415659397011, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02013415659397011, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.008104812837173903, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.004647973036567388, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012029343756796207, "bench_c_p1d": -0.015486183557402722, "ret_p1w": 0.02237145104327598, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.02237145104327598, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.029655944691877045, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.008934825656973677, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007284493648601065, "bench_c_p1w": 0.013436625386302303, "ret_p1m": -0.006711349972995273, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.006711349972995273, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.0018695879047441188, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.03973345053218724, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.008580937877739392, "bench_c_p1m": 0.03302210055919197, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.006711349972995273, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.0018695879047441188, "alpha_c_stated": 0.03973345053218724, "price_path": [-0.0056, -0.0313, 0.0358, 0.0403, 0.1186, 0.0694, 0.1432, 0.1141, 0.2103, 0.2125, 0.1298, 0.1119, 0.0917, 0.1588, 0.1186, 0.1365, 0.1208, 0.179, 0.0828, 0.1074, 0.1588, 0.2438, 0.1812, 0.1499, 0.0984, 0.1655, 0.1588, 0.1409, 0.0962, 0.0738, -0.0089, 0.047, 0.0224, 0.0604, 0.0604, 0.0313, 0.0179, 0.038, -0.0358, -0.0336, -0.0246, 0.0089, 0.0783, 0.179, 0.1834, 0.1969, 0.2192, 0.2148, 0.1678, 0.2327, 0.2058, 0.226, 0.2483, 0.2036, 0.217, 0.1477, 0.17, 0.2215, 0.1902, 0.1208, 0.085, 0.0537, 0.0246, 0.0, -0.0201, -0.0425, -0.038, -0.0157, 0.0224, 0.0134, 0.0134, 0.0022, 0.0626, 0.1342, 0.1275, 0.1879, 0.2103, 0.0895, 0.1074, -0.0112, -0.0358, -0.0291, 0.0022, 0.0, -0.0067, 0.0313, 0.0626, -0.0045, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0425, -0.0604, -0.0425, -0.038, -0.0224, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2057516100879831485", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-21T17:37:19+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Wildly overpriced stock. The company should not exist.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN: stock wildly overpriced and company has no reason to exist.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@RKmaruvada @nejatian Wildly overpriced stock. The company should not exist. Read my feed. $OPEN", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @nejatian I dont get whatbyour beef is with $open. It ia not like other EJ's ventures. Plain to see there are changes be8ng made. And execution to plan (market maker) wld see return of structural profits. Whats the issue? You dont like the biz or people or what?", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "RKmaruvada", "ret_m1d": -0.03719914002369573, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03719914002369573, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.035219977176130124, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.035626078488461665, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0019791628475656076, "bench_c_m1d": -0.001573061535234066, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.008752726553724832, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.008752726553724832, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012684275630528763, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.010101040305435571, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.003931549076803931, "bench_c_p1d": 0.001348313751710739, "ret_p1w": 0.10940918626229079, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.10940918626229079, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.09341390553828388, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.11143165688985679, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01599528072400691, "bench_c_p1w": -0.0020224706275659976, "ret_p1m": -0.021881920725042914, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.021881920725042914, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02988466924192723, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0074998785485573816, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.008002748516884317, "bench_c_p1m": -0.014382042176485532, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.021881920725042914, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02988466924192723, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0074998785485573816, "price_path": [0.046, 0.1182, 0.0897, 0.1838, 0.186, 0.105, 0.0875, 0.0678, 0.1335, 0.0941, 0.1116, 0.0963, 0.1532, 0.0591, 0.0832, 0.1335, 0.2166, 0.1554, 0.1247, 0.0744, 0.14, 0.1335, 0.116, 0.0722, 0.0503, -0.0306, 0.0241, 0.0, 0.0372, 0.0372, 0.0088, -0.0044, 0.0153, -0.0569, -0.0547, -0.046, -0.0131, 0.0547, 0.1532, 0.1575, 0.1707, 0.1926, 0.1882, 0.1422, 0.2057, 0.1794, 0.1991, 0.221, 0.1772, 0.1904, 0.1225, 0.1444, 0.1947, 0.1641, 0.0963, 0.0613, 0.0306, 0.0022, -0.0219, -0.0416, -0.0635, -0.0591, -0.0372, 0.0, -0.0088, -0.0088, -0.0197, 0.0394, 0.1094, 0.1028, 0.1619, 0.1838, 0.0656, 0.0832, -0.0328, -0.0569, -0.0503, -0.0197, -0.0219, -0.0284, 0.0088, 0.0394, -0.0263, -0.0219, -0.0219, -0.0635, -0.081, -0.0635, -0.0591, -0.0438, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2053873750815244643", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-11T16:23:55+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Autos and energy are worth at most $50 per share", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "TSLA autos and energy segments worth at most $50/share; bearish fundamental valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Analytical malpractice on full display. \nThis analyst should be fired. \nAutos and energy are worth at most $50 per share. $TSLA @MichaelKantro https://t.co/bWiTpKJQAE", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.037415716621313155, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.037415716621313155, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03514332908479678, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.04436879684251149, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0022723875365163737, "bench_c_m1d": 0.006953080221198338, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.025955028748244402, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.025955028748244402, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02444007613365784, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01690748136576803, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0015149526145865622, "bench_c_p1d": -0.009047547382476373, "ret_p1w": -0.07867417924859554, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07867417924859554, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.07779498858738487, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.053123344951975904, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0008791906612106715, "bench_c_p1w": -0.02555083429661964, "ret_p1m": -0.1085842861218399, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.1085842861218399, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10554088926418093, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0792636670996848, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0030433968576589754, "bench_c_p1m": -0.029320619022155103, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.1085842861218399, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10554088926418093, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0792636670996848, "price_path": [-0.0376, -0.0628, -0.0619, -0.0619, -0.0772, -0.0757, -0.0748, -0.0746, -0.1015, -0.08, -0.062, -0.0818, -0.0955, -0.0937, -0.1181, -0.0878, -0.0887, -0.1085, -0.1041, -0.1028, -0.0836, -0.1123, -0.1209, -0.1111, -0.1028, -0.1173, -0.1454, -0.1731, -0.1442, -0.1393, -0.1327, -0.1638, -0.1869, -0.2016, -0.1646, -0.1432, -0.1897, -0.1897, -0.2071, -0.221, -0.2287, -0.2233, -0.2158, -0.208, -0.1816, -0.1192, -0.1261, -0.0997, -0.118, -0.1316, -0.1292, -0.1602, -0.1544, -0.1491, -0.155, -0.1622, -0.1424, -0.1218, -0.118, -0.125, -0.104, -0.0746, -0.0374, 0.0, -0.026, 0.0006, -0.0038, -0.0511, -0.0787, -0.0919, -0.0623, -0.061, -0.0427, -0.0427, -0.0256, -0.0104, -0.0065, -0.0207, -0.0654, -0.0478, -0.0479, -0.0597, -0.1213, -0.081, -0.1086, -0.1425, -0.103, -0.0867, -0.0761, -0.0907, -0.1093, -0.1, -0.1, -0.0898, -0.1424, -0.1561, -0.157, -0.1467, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2055378200281145759", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-15T20:02:04+00:00", "symbol": "Gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Gold is going up because central banks trust a metal more than they trust the institutions managing fiat currencies", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long gold, silver, energy/physical-asset producers; bearish on financial assets and Big Tech AI capex cycle with no proven returns over the next decade.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Gold commodity; GLD is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "For 40 years, Wall Street has been printing financial assets faster than the real economy can produce real things.\n\nBut that game is ENDING.\n\nAnd the people still betting on financial engineering over physical reality are going to get destroyed.\n\nLet me explain what I mean:\n\nThe United States had 254 oil refineries in 1982. Today we have 131. No new refinery has been built on American soil since 1976. \n\nCalifornia is losing 17% of its remaining refining capacity this year alone as Phillips 66 and Valero shut their doors. The EIA projects total US refining capacity will fall 3% by year end to 17.9 million barrels per day, still below pre-pandemic levels.\n\nWe are SHUTTING DOWN the infrastructure that keeps the lights on, the planes flying, and the trucks moving.\n\nMeanwhile, Big Tech is spending over $600 billion this year on AI data centers. They're consuming roughly 90% of their combined operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing hundreds of billions to cover the rest. And most CFOs still cannot point to measurable returns from any of it.\n\nThink about what's happening here...\n\nWe are pouring the largest concentration of capital in human history into digital infrastructure that has yet to prove it generates a dollar of real-world productivity. And simultaneously, we are CLOSING the physical infrastructure that actually makes civilization function.\n\nYou cannot print a refinery. You cannot print a barrel of diesel. You cannot print hydrogen or sulfuric acid or an offshore drilling rig. You cannot algorithmically generate the things that heat homes, move freight, grow food, and build roads.\n\nBut you CAN print another AI chatbot. You can print another $100 billion data center. You can print another financial product that packages illiquidity as \"stability\" and sells it to your 401(k).\n\nThe entire financial system for the last 4 decades has been a story of financialization outrunning the physical world. \n\nMore derivatives than underlying assets. More passive money than price discovery. More narratives than balance sheets. More financial engineering than actual engineering.\n\nAnd now the physical world is pushing back:\n\nGold is going up because central banks trust a metal more than they trust the institutions managing fiat currencies. \n\nEnergy stocks are repricing because the world suddenly realized that shutting down refineries and underinvesting in production for a decade has consequences. Real assets are outperforming financial assets because you cannot print scarcity.\n\nThe S&P 500 measured in dollars looks fine. Measured in gold, it has been LOSING value for years. \n\nPeople are suffering from money illusion. They see nominal gains and think they're getting richer. But they're not - the unit of account is shrinking.\n\nIn my 45 years, the single most reliable pattern I've observed is this:\n\nEvery era of excess financialization eventually collides with physical reality. EVERY single time.\n\nThe junk bond mania of the 1980s collided with actual default rates. The dot-com bubble collided with the fact that eyeballs aren't earnings. The housing crisis collided with the fact that a $40,000 income cannot service a $500,000 mortgage.\n\nThis time, the collision is between $600 billion in AI spending with no proven returns and a physical world that's been starved of investment for a generation.\n\nOwn what's real:\n\n- Gold\n- Silver\n- Energy\n- The companies that produce the things civilization cannot function without\n\nThe last 40 years rewarded those who owned financial assets. The next 10 will reward those who own physical ones.\n\nThe regime is changing.\n\n---\n\nWatch the full interview:\n\nhttps://t.co/SEOkzF5UOb", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.002724432165030488, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.002724432165030488, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0034284367565521334, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0034284367565521334, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.016561892782745447, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.016561892782745447, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.009901104695252072, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.009901104695252072, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "ret_p1w": -0.011017339655990055, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.011017339655990055, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.02048055976537011, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.02048055976537011, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "ret_p1m": -0.049709600547409916, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.049709600547409916, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.06552228263755955, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.06552228263755955, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0952, 0.0983, 0.1199, 0.1502, 0.1343, 0.1314, 0.1411, 0.1561, 0.171, 0.1188, 0.1275, 0.114, 0.1316, 0.1293, 0.142, 0.1382, 0.1158, 0.1014, 0.1004, 0.0976, 0.0629, 0.0191, -0.0121, -0.0344, -0.0342, -0.0051, -0.0425, -0.0089, -0.0092, 0.0283, 0.0463, 0.0262, 0.0262, 0.022, 0.032, 0.0385, 0.0466, 0.0447, 0.0405, 0.0637, 0.0526, 0.0517, 0.0657, 0.0565, 0.0266, 0.0402, 0.0301, 0.0354, 0.0274, 0.0083, -0.0024, 0.0125, 0.0114, -0.0089, -0.0004, 0.0299, 0.0317, 0.0367, 0.0388, 0.0347, 0.0288, 0.021, -0.0027, 0.0, -0.0166, -0.0025, -0.0034, -0.011, -0.011, -0.0106, -0.0238, -0.0135, -0.0031, -0.0171, -0.0155, -0.0252, -0.0171, -0.053, -0.0506, -0.0661, -0.1048, -0.0767, -0.0762, -0.0523, -0.0497, -0.0713, -0.0748, -0.0748, -0.0809, -0.0982, -0.1255, -0.117, -0.1071, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2055378200281145759", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-05-15T20:02:04+00:00", "symbol": "Silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Own what's real: - Gold - Silver - Energy - The companies that produce the things civilization cannot function without", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long gold, silver, energy/physical-asset producers; bearish on financial assets and Big Tech AI capex cycle with no proven returns over the next decade.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "Silver commodity; SLV is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "For 40 years, Wall Street has been printing financial assets faster than the real economy can produce real things.\n\nBut that game is ENDING.\n\nAnd the people still betting on financial engineering over physical reality are going to get destroyed.\n\nLet me explain what I mean:\n\nThe United States had 254 oil refineries in 1982. Today we have 131. No new refinery has been built on American soil since 1976. \n\nCalifornia is losing 17% of its remaining refining capacity this year alone as Phillips 66 and Valero shut their doors. The EIA projects total US refining capacity will fall 3% by year end to 17.9 million barrels per day, still below pre-pandemic levels.\n\nWe are SHUTTING DOWN the infrastructure that keeps the lights on, the planes flying, and the trucks moving.\n\nMeanwhile, Big Tech is spending over $600 billion this year on AI data centers. They're consuming roughly 90% of their combined operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing hundreds of billions to cover the rest. And most CFOs still cannot point to measurable returns from any of it.\n\nThink about what's happening here...\n\nWe are pouring the largest concentration of capital in human history into digital infrastructure that has yet to prove it generates a dollar of real-world productivity. And simultaneously, we are CLOSING the physical infrastructure that actually makes civilization function.\n\nYou cannot print a refinery. You cannot print a barrel of diesel. You cannot print hydrogen or sulfuric acid or an offshore drilling rig. You cannot algorithmically generate the things that heat homes, move freight, grow food, and build roads.\n\nBut you CAN print another AI chatbot. You can print another $100 billion data center. You can print another financial product that packages illiquidity as \"stability\" and sells it to your 401(k).\n\nThe entire financial system for the last 4 decades has been a story of financialization outrunning the physical world. \n\nMore derivatives than underlying assets. More passive money than price discovery. More narratives than balance sheets. More financial engineering than actual engineering.\n\nAnd now the physical world is pushing back:\n\nGold is going up because central banks trust a metal more than they trust the institutions managing fiat currencies. \n\nEnergy stocks are repricing because the world suddenly realized that shutting down refineries and underinvesting in production for a decade has consequences. Real assets are outperforming financial assets because you cannot print scarcity.\n\nThe S&P 500 measured in dollars looks fine. Measured in gold, it has been LOSING value for years. \n\nPeople are suffering from money illusion. They see nominal gains and think they're getting richer. But they're not - the unit of account is shrinking.\n\nIn my 45 years, the single most reliable pattern I've observed is this:\n\nEvery era of excess financialization eventually collides with physical reality. EVERY single time.\n\nThe junk bond mania of the 1980s collided with actual default rates. The dot-com bubble collided with the fact that eyeballs aren't earnings. The housing crisis collided with the fact that a $40,000 income cannot service a $500,000 mortgage.\n\nThis time, the collision is between $600 billion in AI spending with no proven returns and a physical world that's been starved of investment for a generation.\n\nOwn what's real:\n\n- Gold\n- Silver\n- Energy\n- The companies that produce the things civilization cannot function without\n\nThe last 40 years rewarded those who owned financial assets. The next 10 will reward those who own physical ones.\n\nThe regime is changing.\n\n---\n\nWatch the full interview:\n\nhttps://t.co/SEOkzF5UOb", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01286819408725215, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.01286819408725215, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.013572198678773795, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.013572198678773795, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04346583942535842, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04346583942535842, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.03680505133786505, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.03680505133786505, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "ret_p1w": -0.022590817499304028, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.022590817499304028, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03205403760868408, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.03205403760868408, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "ret_p1m": -0.093651741823218, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.093651741823218, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10946442391336764, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10946442391336764, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0021, 0.0153, 0.0955, 0.152, 0.1307, 0.1444, 0.1503, 0.2152, 0.1663, 0.0678, 0.0772, 0.0619, 0.0858, 0.119, 0.1451, 0.114, 0.0935, 0.0393, 0.0469, 0.0246, -0.0177, -0.0609, -0.1204, -0.1068, -0.0999, -0.0676, -0.1311, -0.0929, -0.0918, -0.0257, -0.0257, -0.0593, -0.0593, -0.055, -0.0572, -0.0353, -0.0222, -0.0123, -0.0237, 0.03, 0.0272, 0.0186, 0.0528, 0.0316, -0.0207, 0.0061, -0.0223, -0.0164, -0.023, -0.0535, -0.0729, -0.0469, -0.0236, -0.0572, -0.0576, 0.0027, 0.0237, 0.0439, 0.1152, 0.1231, 0.1345, 0.0796, -0.0129, 0.0, -0.0435, -0.0173, -0.007, -0.0226, -0.0226, -0.0031, -0.0349, -0.0226, -0.023, -0.0325, -0.0279, -0.0533, -0.0423, -0.1197, -0.1195, -0.1563, -0.1756, -0.1304, -0.1237, -0.0925, -0.0937, -0.1334, -0.1491, -0.1491, -0.1577, -0.2032, -0.2597, -0.2514, -0.2382, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2055378200281145759", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-05-15T20:02:04+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy stocks are repricing because the world suddenly realized that shutting down refineries and underinvesting in production for a decade has consequences", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Long gold, silver, energy/physical-asset producers; bearish on financial assets and Big Tech AI capex cycle with no proven returns over the next decade.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE is the primary US energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "For 40 years, Wall Street has been printing financial assets faster than the real economy can produce real things.\n\nBut that game is ENDING.\n\nAnd the people still betting on financial engineering over physical reality are going to get destroyed.\n\nLet me explain what I mean:\n\nThe United States had 254 oil refineries in 1982. Today we have 131. No new refinery has been built on American soil since 1976. \n\nCalifornia is losing 17% of its remaining refining capacity this year alone as Phillips 66 and Valero shut their doors. The EIA projects total US refining capacity will fall 3% by year end to 17.9 million barrels per day, still below pre-pandemic levels.\n\nWe are SHUTTING DOWN the infrastructure that keeps the lights on, the planes flying, and the trucks moving.\n\nMeanwhile, Big Tech is spending over $600 billion this year on AI data centers. They're consuming roughly 90% of their combined operating cash flow on capex. Borrowing hundreds of billions to cover the rest. And most CFOs still cannot point to measurable returns from any of it.\n\nThink about what's happening here...\n\nWe are pouring the largest concentration of capital in human history into digital infrastructure that has yet to prove it generates a dollar of real-world productivity. And simultaneously, we are CLOSING the physical infrastructure that actually makes civilization function.\n\nYou cannot print a refinery. You cannot print a barrel of diesel. You cannot print hydrogen or sulfuric acid or an offshore drilling rig. You cannot algorithmically generate the things that heat homes, move freight, grow food, and build roads.\n\nBut you CAN print another AI chatbot. You can print another $100 billion data center. You can print another financial product that packages illiquidity as \"stability\" and sells it to your 401(k).\n\nThe entire financial system for the last 4 decades has been a story of financialization outrunning the physical world. \n\nMore derivatives than underlying assets. More passive money than price discovery. More narratives than balance sheets. More financial engineering than actual engineering.\n\nAnd now the physical world is pushing back:\n\nGold is going up because central banks trust a metal more than they trust the institutions managing fiat currencies. \n\nEnergy stocks are repricing because the world suddenly realized that shutting down refineries and underinvesting in production for a decade has consequences. Real assets are outperforming financial assets because you cannot print scarcity.\n\nThe S&P 500 measured in dollars looks fine. Measured in gold, it has been LOSING value for years. \n\nPeople are suffering from money illusion. They see nominal gains and think they're getting richer. But they're not - the unit of account is shrinking.\n\nIn my 45 years, the single most reliable pattern I've observed is this:\n\nEvery era of excess financialization eventually collides with physical reality. EVERY single time.\n\nThe junk bond mania of the 1980s collided with actual default rates. The dot-com bubble collided with the fact that eyeballs aren't earnings. The housing crisis collided with the fact that a $40,000 income cannot service a $500,000 mortgage.\n\nThis time, the collision is between $600 billion in AI spending with no proven returns and a physical world that's been starved of investment for a generation.\n\nOwn what's real:\n\n- Gold\n- Silver\n- Energy\n- The companies that produce the things civilization cannot function without\n\nThe last 40 years rewarded those who owned financial assets. The next 10 will reward those who own physical ones.\n\nThe regime is changing.\n\n---\n\nWatch the full interview:\n\nhttps://t.co/SEOkzF5UOb", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.018818129741556056, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.018818129741556056, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0195221343330777, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0195221343330777, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.011720066041833288, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.011720066041833288, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.018380854129326663, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.018380854129326663, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "ret_p1w": -0.017992733673216743, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.017992733673216743, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.027455953782596798, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.027455953782596798, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "ret_p1m": -0.0861670620923124, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.0861670620923124, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.10197974418246203, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.10197974418246203, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1016, -0.0951, -0.1, -0.0955, -0.0964, -0.1001, -0.0972, -0.0829, -0.0645, -0.0731, -0.0785, -0.0737, -0.0723, -0.0764, -0.0882, -0.0655, -0.0568, -0.0537, -0.0504, -0.0404, -0.0418, -0.0265, -0.0273, -0.0157, 0.0043, -0.0002, 0.0155, 0.0327, 0.0228, 0.0112, -0.0266, -0.022, -0.022, -0.0149, -0.0069, -0.0418, -0.0536, -0.0601, -0.0573, -0.0764, -0.0796, -0.066, -0.0918, -0.091, -0.0777, -0.0667, -0.0594, -0.0612, -0.0629, -0.0474, -0.0256, -0.0154, -0.0286, -0.0196, -0.0187, -0.0591, -0.0764, -0.0806, -0.0563, -0.0497, -0.0487, -0.0414, -0.0188, 0.0, 0.0117, -0.0129, -0.0239, -0.018, -0.018, -0.0451, -0.0593, -0.0599, -0.0708, -0.0541, -0.0432, -0.0309, -0.0302, -0.048, -0.0371, -0.0527, -0.0385, -0.0571, -0.05, -0.083, -0.0862, -0.0976, -0.1124, -0.1124, -0.1012, -0.0945, -0.1093, -0.1007, -0.1048, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2062951603875758294", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-06-05T17:36:04+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Publicly short from 475 asshole", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Discloses active short position in TSLA from $475.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Ronen__Stauber @DougKass @biancoresearch @profplum99 @cvpayne @Tesla Publicly short from 475 asshole", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @DougKass @biancoresearch @profplum99 @cvpayne How long have you lost money on your .@Tesla short?\n\nOh wait. You didn’t short it, did you?\n\nTesla went public in June 2010 at a $1.13 split-adjusted with a market cap of ~$1.7 billion.\n\nCurrent Share Price: ~$400\n Equity Value: $1.25 Trillion \n Enterprise Value : $1.22 Trillion", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Ronen__Stauber", "ret_m1d": 0.07020463480059136, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.07020463480059136, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.04371149219870274, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.04930957929639468, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.02649314260188862, "bench_c_m1d": 0.02089505550419668, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.04590795960877547, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.04590795960877547, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.04364378700000393, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.04129364705349259, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002264172608771542, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0046143125552828845, "ret_p1w": 0.03946289686900584, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03946289686900584, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.03376836586220322, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.024314001595198587, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005694531006802617, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01514889527380725, "ret_p1m": null, "ret_signed_p1m": null, "alpha_spy_p1m": null, "alpha_c_p1m": null, "bench_spy_p1m": null, "bench_c_p1m": null, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0211, 0.043, 0.0103, 0.0005, 0.0117, 0.0212, 0.0046, -0.0274, -0.0589, -0.026, -0.0204, -0.0129, -0.0483, -0.0746, -0.0914, -0.0492, -0.0249, -0.0778, -0.0778, -0.0976, -0.1134, -0.1221, -0.1161, -0.1075, -0.0987, -0.0685, 0.0024, -0.0054, 0.0246, 0.0038, -0.0117, -0.0089, -0.0442, -0.0376, -0.0315, -0.0383, -0.0465, -0.024, -0.0005, 0.0039, -0.0042, 0.0198, 0.0532, 0.0955, 0.1381, 0.1086, 0.1388, 0.1338, 0.0799, 0.0486, 0.0335, 0.0672, 0.0687, 0.0895, 0.0895, 0.1089, 0.1262, 0.1307, 0.1146, 0.0636, 0.0837, 0.0836, 0.0702, 0.0, 0.0459, 0.0145, -0.0241, 0.0208, 0.0395, 0.0515, 0.0349, 0.0138, 0.0243, 0.0243, 0.0359, -0.024, -0.0396, -0.0406, -0.0289, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2051419654149820458", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-04T21:52:13+00:00", "symbol": "oil", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit_alias_present", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Energy is the trade.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Hormuz closure is structural, not temporary: long energy/Brent, short global airlines and semis on fertilizer/helium supply destruction through 2027.", "resolved_tickers": ["USO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "USO is the standard crude oil ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The Strait of Hormuz crisis just claimed its first VICTIM but the real damage hasn't even started yet.\n\nTwo days ago Spirit Airlines (the 8th largest airline in America) permanently shut down. \n\nEveryone's blaming legacy debt and bad management. Fine.\n\nBut the KILLING BLOW was jet fuel doubling from $74 to $150 a barrel in 10 weeks because the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and there is no plan to reopen it.\n\nSpirit is the first domino, and it will not be the last:\n\nThe Federation of Indian Airlines (representing Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet) just warned the government that their entire industry is \"on the verge of closing down.\" \n\nRyanair's CEO publicly named Wizz Air and Air Baltic as the next to go bankrupt by autumn. \n\nAir France-KLM disclosed $2.4 BILLION in additional fuel costs this year. The IEA says Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left.\n\nAnd here's where it gets really bad...\n\nAirlines are the EASY part of this story. The hard part is food:\n\nOne-third of global fertilizer trade flows through Hormuz. \n\nNitrogen prices are up over 40% since February. \n\nThe American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year. A Michigan farmer told PBS his nitrogen cost went from $350 a ton in January to $600. An Iowa farmer said he's skipping nutrients entirely.\n\nThis has a deadline and the deadline is NOW. \n\nThe Corn Belt planting window is mid-April through early May.\n\nNitrogen has to reach the crop during early growth or it does nothing. Apply it 3 weeks late and corn yields drop 10 to 25%. \n\nYou can hear what the farmer in the clip below (which is already a MONTH old) said.\n\nWe're in it.\n\nEven if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport takes WEEKS that farmers do not have.\n\nAnd nobody has a Plan B. \n\nG7 countries stockpile oil - but nobody stockpiled fertilizer. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia. \n\nThere is no workaround.\n\nAnd it doesn't stop at food.\n\nQatar produces a third of the world's helium - a gas that is IRREPLACEABLE in semiconductor manufacturing. Chipmakers use it to cool silicon wafers during fabrication \n\nThere is no substitute. \n\nIranian strikes damaged Qatar's production facilities at Ras Laffan, and even the helium that IS being produced can't get out because it ships through Hormuz. \n\nSpot prices have doubled. South Korea gets 55% of its helium from the Gulf. Taiwan gets 69%. \n\nThose are the two countries that make virtually ALL of the world's advanced chips. \n\nSEMI, the semiconductor industry association, said even if the Strait opened today it would take 4 to 6 months to normalize supply. So every AI bull pricing in infinite chip scaling should be asking one very simple question:\n\nWhere is the helium coming from?\n\nAnd this isn't getting resolved because Iran has ZERO incentive to give anything up.\n\nHormuz is the only card they have and they know the political clock in Washington is working entirely in their favor:\n\nTrump's approval just hit 34% - lowest of his second term. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 points. A majority of voters view the Iran operation as a failure. \n\nMidterms are only 6 months out.\n\nIran sees all of this. They know time pressure falls on Washington, not Tehran. Their demands - frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, continued control of Hormuz, enrichment rights preserved - haven't budged since the Islamabad talks collapsed.\n\nThe Pentagon told Congress mine clearing alone could take 6 months. And that can't even START until the war ends.\n\nMeanwhile Brent sits above $110 and both sides are blockading each other:\n\nIran blockades the Gulf. The US blockades Iran. \n\nThe global economy is caught between two walls closing in.\n\nMarkets are pricing this like a temporary disruption. But it is NOT temporary. \n\nThe fertilizer damage is already done for this growing season, food price increases are baked in through 2027, the airline shakeout is just beginning, the semiconductor supply chain is fraying, and the diplomatic stalemate has no obvious exit because neither side can afford to blink.\n\nI've been saying the margin of safety was too thin and complacency would be punished.\n\nEnergy is the trade.\n\nSpirit Airlines just died two days ago and proved it.\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.023860737220618544, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.023860737220618544, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03181912196189329, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03181912196189329, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007958384741274749, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007958384741274749, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07088854373658826, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.07088854373658826, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.08478794342936236, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.08478794342936236, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.013899399692774095, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013899399692774095, "ret_p1w": 0.0009017471350742934, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0009017471350742934, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.019007826743432155, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.019007826743432155, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.019909573878506448, "bench_c_p1w": 0.019909573878506448, "ret_p1m": -0.02295899008554425, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.02295899008554425, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.06505794071675752, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.06505794071675752, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04209895063121327, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04209895063121327, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.02295899008554425, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.06505794071675752, "alpha_c_stated": -0.06505794071675752, "price_path": [-0.4681, -0.466, -0.4588, -0.4588, -0.4528, -0.4702, -0.4713, -0.4713, -0.4747, -0.4493, -0.4368, -0.4392, -0.4389, -0.4398, -0.447, -0.4467, -0.4316, -0.3952, -0.3743, -0.3649, -0.332, -0.2455, -0.2763, -0.2657, -0.2505, -0.1788, -0.1684, -0.2021, -0.1757, -0.1561, -0.186, -0.1577, -0.2331, -0.2055, -0.2135, -0.1867, -0.1385, -0.0995, -0.1174, -0.1393, -0.0434, -0.0434, -0.0363, -0.0422, -0.1359, -0.1194, -0.1342, -0.1089, -0.1409, -0.1497, -0.1271, -0.1951, -0.1585, -0.1104, -0.1024, -0.0655, -0.0816, -0.0655, -0.0317, 0.0448, 0.0203, -0.0095, 0.0239, 0.0, -0.0709, -0.0638, -0.0734, -0.0382, 0.0009, -0.0148, -0.0081, 0.0282, 0.0355, 0.061, 0.0007, -0.0113, -0.0225, -0.0225, -0.0497, -0.0911, -0.0929, -0.1046, -0.0601, -0.0479, -0.023, -0.0515, -0.0773, -0.0626, -0.0893, -0.0685, -0.1064, -0.13, -0.1593, -0.1991, -0.2077, -0.2032, -0.2032, -0.2184, -0.2283, -0.2627, -0.2418, -0.2684, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2051419654149820458", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-05-04T21:52:13+00:00", "symbol": "BZ=F", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Brent sits above $110", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "months", "summary": "Hormuz closure is structural, not temporary: long energy/Brent, short global airlines and semis on fertilizer/helium supply destruction through 2027.", "resolved_tickers": ["BZ=F"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The Strait of Hormuz crisis just claimed its first VICTIM but the real damage hasn't even started yet.\n\nTwo days ago Spirit Airlines (the 8th largest airline in America) permanently shut down. \n\nEveryone's blaming legacy debt and bad management. Fine.\n\nBut the KILLING BLOW was jet fuel doubling from $74 to $150 a barrel in 10 weeks because the Strait of Hormuz is CLOSED and there is no plan to reopen it.\n\nSpirit is the first domino, and it will not be the last:\n\nThe Federation of Indian Airlines (representing Air India, IndiGo, SpiceJet) just warned the government that their entire industry is \"on the verge of closing down.\" \n\nRyanair's CEO publicly named Wizz Air and Air Baltic as the next to go bankrupt by autumn. \n\nAir France-KLM disclosed $2.4 BILLION in additional fuel costs this year. The IEA says Europe has 6 weeks of jet fuel left.\n\nAnd here's where it gets really bad...\n\nAirlines are the EASY part of this story. The hard part is food:\n\nOne-third of global fertilizer trade flows through Hormuz. \n\nNitrogen prices are up over 40% since February. \n\nThe American Farm Bureau found that 70% of farmers nationwide cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year. A Michigan farmer told PBS his nitrogen cost went from $350 a ton in January to $600. An Iowa farmer said he's skipping nutrients entirely.\n\nThis has a deadline and the deadline is NOW. \n\nThe Corn Belt planting window is mid-April through early May.\n\nNitrogen has to reach the crop during early growth or it does nothing. Apply it 3 weeks late and corn yields drop 10 to 25%. \n\nYou can hear what the farmer in the clip below (which is already a MONTH old) said.\n\nWe're in it.\n\nEven if Hormuz reopens tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport takes WEEKS that farmers do not have.\n\nAnd nobody has a Plan B. \n\nG7 countries stockpile oil - but nobody stockpiled fertilizer. Saudi Arabia's bypass pipeline carries crude, not ammonia. \n\nThere is no workaround.\n\nAnd it doesn't stop at food.\n\nQatar produces a third of the world's helium - a gas that is IRREPLACEABLE in semiconductor manufacturing. Chipmakers use it to cool silicon wafers during fabrication \n\nThere is no substitute. \n\nIranian strikes damaged Qatar's production facilities at Ras Laffan, and even the helium that IS being produced can't get out because it ships through Hormuz. \n\nSpot prices have doubled. South Korea gets 55% of its helium from the Gulf. Taiwan gets 69%. \n\nThose are the two countries that make virtually ALL of the world's advanced chips. \n\nSEMI, the semiconductor industry association, said even if the Strait opened today it would take 4 to 6 months to normalize supply. So every AI bull pricing in infinite chip scaling should be asking one very simple question:\n\nWhere is the helium coming from?\n\nAnd this isn't getting resolved because Iran has ZERO incentive to give anything up.\n\nHormuz is the only card they have and they know the political clock in Washington is working entirely in their favor:\n\nTrump's approval just hit 34% - lowest of his second term. Democrats lead the generic ballot by 10 points. A majority of voters view the Iran operation as a failure. \n\nMidterms are only 6 months out.\n\nIran sees all of this. They know time pressure falls on Washington, not Tehran. Their demands - frozen assets released, all sanctions lifted, continued control of Hormuz, enrichment rights preserved - haven't budged since the Islamabad talks collapsed.\n\nThe Pentagon told Congress mine clearing alone could take 6 months. And that can't even START until the war ends.\n\nMeanwhile Brent sits above $110 and both sides are blockading each other:\n\nIran blockades the Gulf. The US blockades Iran. \n\nThe global economy is caught between two walls closing in.\n\nMarkets are pricing this like a temporary disruption. But it is NOT temporary. \n\nThe fertilizer damage is already done for this growing season, food price increases are baked in through 2027, the airline shakeout is just beginning, the semiconductor supply chain is fraying, and the diplomatic stalemate has no obvious exit because neither side can afford to blink.\n\nI've been saying the margin of safety was too thin and complacency would be punished.\n\nEnergy is the trade.\n\nSpirit Airlines just died two days ago and proved it.\n\n---\n\nThere's so much value out there, but I don't have the TIME to consume all of it.\n\nAnd I know I'm not the only one.\n\nSo we built something to fix it. \n\nIt pulls the best podcasts each week across whatever topics you follow, strips out the noise, and gives you the actual ideas, arguments, and takeaways in a few minutes of reading.\n\nNo fluff. No filler. Just straight to the point.\n\nIt's free right now. I'm sharing it because I genuinely think it's useful - and I want feedback from people who care about their time as much as I do.\n\nJoin today and save 40h+ per month:\n\nhttps://t.co/RLsDhCcSI9", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.041594607996552346, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.041594607996552346, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.049552992737827095, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.049552992737827095, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007958384741274749, "bench_c_m1d": -0.007958384741274749, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.07827437779674729, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.07827437779674729, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.09217377748952138, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.09217377748952138, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.013899399692774095, "bench_c_p1d": 0.013899399692774095, "ret_p1w": -0.019113552844440607, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.019113552844440607, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.039023126722947055, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.039023126722947055, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.019909573878506448, "bench_c_p1w": 0.019909573878506448, "ret_p1m": -0.10976613166930549, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.10976613166930549, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.15186508230051876, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.15186508230051876, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.04209895063121327, "bench_c_p1m": 0.04209895063121327, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.10976613166930549, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.15186508230051876, "alpha_c_stated": -0.15186508230051876, "price_path": [-0.3852, -0.3806, -0.3716, -0.3738, -0.3683, -0.3855, -0.3834, -0.3834, -0.3864, -0.3597, -0.3478, -0.3469, -0.3493, -0.3559, -0.3551, -0.3561, -0.3403, -0.2924, -0.2591, -0.2591, -0.2226, -0.1564, -0.0993, -0.2009, -0.1628, -0.0856, -0.0613, -0.0879, -0.0587, -0.0227, -0.0111, 0.0211, -0.0904, -0.049, -0.0696, -0.0169, 0.0246, 0.0265, 0.0772, -0.0793, -0.0076, -0.0076, -0.0009, -0.0055, -0.1376, -0.127, -0.1335, -0.0957, -0.1373, -0.136, -0.0954, -0.1774, -0.131, -0.1037, -0.0724, -0.0437, -0.0413, -0.0149, 0.0127, 0.0743, 0.0377, -0.0155, 0.0416, 0.0, -0.0783, -0.0893, -0.0781, -0.0515, -0.0191, -0.0386, -0.0378, -0.0056, 0.0203, 0.0128, -0.0441, -0.0664, -0.0576, -0.0576, -0.0937, -0.1418, -0.1471, -0.1622, -0.1355, -0.1262, -0.1098, -0.1351, -0.1527, -0.1422, -0.1677, -0.1526, -0.1774, -0.2052, -0.243, -0.2813, -0.276, -0.2732, -0.2732, -0.291, -0.2984, -0.3288, -0.315, -0.3392, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2055660685145645392", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-16T14:44:34+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital. The stock has appreciated on the basis of hopium, not profits and cash flow.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Short TSLA: doesn't earn cost of capital, stock priced on hopium rather than fundamentals.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital.\nDo  you understand that?\n\nThe stock has appreciated on the basis of hopium, not profits and cash flow.\nDo you understand that? \n\nIf you do not understand those truths then you are financially illiterate and need to take a few finance classes.\nDo you understand that?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @elonmusk Tesla generates billions in annual net profits, Elon Musk’s decisions have demonstrably created substantial enterprise value. There's literal evidence of it. You are purely engagement farming because you don't have actually have any of substance to say.", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.029878778242847348, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.029878778242847348, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.029174773651325703, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02807343878875379, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0018053394540935574, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.014341825466156255, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.014341825466156255, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0076810373786628805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0032517047213469485, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "bench_c_p1d": -0.011090120744809306, "ret_p1w": 0.03907417232818777, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03907417232818777, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.029610952218807718, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.014486855380046126, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "bench_c_p1w": 0.024587316948141646, "ret_p1m": -0.013000284639190007, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.013000284639190007, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02881296672933964, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.031397791207122716, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01839750656793271, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.013000284639190007, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02881296672933964, "alpha_c_stated": 0.031397791207122716, "price_path": [0.0032, 0.0042, 0.0045, -0.0248, -0.0015, 0.0181, -0.0034, -0.0182, -0.0163, -0.0428, -0.0099, -0.0108, -0.0323, -0.0276, -0.0262, -0.0053, -0.0365, -0.0458, -0.0352, -0.0261, -0.042, -0.0724, -0.1025, -0.0711, -0.0658, -0.0586, -0.0924, -0.1175, -0.1334, -0.0933, -0.0701, -0.1205, -0.1205, -0.1394, -0.1545, -0.1628, -0.157, -0.1489, -0.1404, -0.1117, -0.044, -0.0514, -0.0229, -0.0427, -0.0575, -0.0548, -0.0885, -0.0822, -0.0764, -0.0829, -0.0907, -0.0692, -0.0468, -0.0426, -0.0503, -0.0275, 0.0044, 0.0448, 0.0854, 0.0572, 0.0861, 0.0812, 0.0299, 0.0, -0.0143, 0.0177, 0.0192, 0.0391, 0.0391, 0.0576, 0.0741, 0.0783, 0.0629, 0.0144, 0.0335, 0.0334, 0.0206, -0.0463, -0.0025, -0.0325, -0.0693, -0.0264, -0.0087, 0.0028, -0.013, -0.0332, -0.0232, -0.0232, -0.012, -0.0692, -0.0841, -0.0851, -0.0739, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2055265057169084617", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-15T12:32:29+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital. @elonmusk produces hopium and fantasy, not profits.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: does not earn its cost of capital; Musk delivers hopium not profits.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Most importantly, $TSLA does not earn its cost of capital. @elonmusk produces hopium and fantasy, not profits.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "@gnoble79 @elonmusk Nope, that is it. Cool Stuff, great stories, horrible politics, corruption enabler", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0498768426621643, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0498768426621643, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03770103189209717, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.031512489984669045, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01217581077006713, "bench_c_m1d": 0.018364352677495255, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.029011937010514632, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.029011937010514632, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.028308427692782856, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02720985093351569, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0007035093177317764, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0018020860769989433, "ret_p1w": 0.008928617891349688, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.008928617891349688, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.00017556456322420644, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.013812304518249885, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008753053328125482, "bench_c_p1w": 0.022740922409599573, "ret_p1m": -0.02626467552667111, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02626467552667111, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.047450587922293286, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.043770888853120526, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.021185912395622175, "bench_c_p1m": 0.017506213326449416, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02626467552667111, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.047450587922293286, "alpha_c_stated": 0.043770888853120526, "price_path": [-0.0275, -0.0259, -0.0249, -0.0247, -0.0531, -0.0305, -0.0115, -0.0324, -0.0467, -0.0448, -0.0706, -0.0386, -0.0395, -0.0604, -0.0558, -0.0545, -0.0342, -0.0645, -0.0735, -0.0632, -0.0544, -0.0698, -0.0993, -0.1286, -0.098, -0.0929, -0.0859, -0.1187, -0.1431, -0.1586, -0.1196, -0.0971, -0.146, -0.146, -0.1644, -0.179, -0.1871, -0.1815, -0.1736, -0.1654, -0.1375, -0.0717, -0.079, -0.0512, -0.0704, -0.0848, -0.0823, -0.1149, -0.1088, -0.1032, -0.1095, -0.1171, -0.0962, -0.0744, -0.0704, -0.0778, -0.0557, -0.0247, 0.0145, 0.0539, 0.0265, 0.0545, 0.0499, 0.0, -0.029, -0.0429, -0.0118, -0.0104, 0.0089, 0.0089, 0.0269, 0.0429, 0.047, 0.0321, -0.0151, 0.0036, 0.0035, -0.009, -0.074, -0.0315, -0.0605, -0.0963, -0.0547, -0.0374, -0.0263, -0.0416, -0.0612, -0.0515, -0.0515, -0.0407, -0.0962, -0.1106, -0.1116, -0.1007, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2057821080107057551", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-22T13:49:12+00:00", "symbol": "SSRM", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold stocks in view of what's coming. $SSRM $GDX", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish gold miners; buy as much as possible given the macro backdrop ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["SSRM"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLB", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Gold'", "bench_c_industry": "Gold", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": ".@TaviCosta IS DA MAN.\n\nYou can’t own enough gold stocks in view of what’s coming. \n\n$SSRM $GDX", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Gold miners are now doing more share buybacks than at any other point in history. \n\nWe have never seen anything remotely close to the scale of what is happening today.\n\nThis is a direct consequence of the extraordinary profitability the sector is generating at current metal https://t.co/a24pRN8VeL", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01783313253332941, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01783313253332941, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.021749285064265766, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.023201976654652623, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0039161525309363565, "bench_c_m1d": -0.005368844121323213, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.05047106442314031, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05047106442314031, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03593323344920418, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03337025090792123, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014537830973936128, "bench_c_p1w": 0.017100813515219082, "ret_p1m": 0.033647376282093466, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.033647376282093466, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.03275186178225953, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0033628012761852677, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0008955144998339382, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0302845750059082, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.033647376282093466, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.03275186178225953, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0033628012761852677, "price_path": [0.0316, 0.0259, 0.0814, 0.0831, 0.0747, -0.0266, 0.1191, 0.0495, 0.0273, 0.0141, 0.041, 0.0202, -0.0084, -0.0518, -0.0444, -0.0491, -0.1322, -0.1894, -0.2264, -0.1834, -0.1777, -0.1225, -0.1703, -0.11, -0.1181, -0.0108, 0.0599, 0.0626, 0.0626, 0.0723, 0.0966, 0.1804, 0.1242, 0.1147, 0.0787, 0.105, 0.0485, 0.0481, 0.0683, 0.074, 0.005, 0.0296, 0.0044, 0.0279, 0.0347, -0.0165, -0.0522, -0.0306, -0.0178, -0.0464, -0.0495, 0.0976, 0.1006, 0.1507, 0.1689, 0.2026, 0.1692, 0.1524, 0.0562, 0.0336, -0.0037, 0.0343, 0.0178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04, -0.0003, 0.0145, 0.0505, 0.0034, 0.003, -0.0279, -0.0087, -0.1006, -0.1046, -0.1346, -0.1736, -0.1144, -0.0838, -0.0262, 0.071, 0.069, 0.0414, 0.0414, 0.0336, -0.0155, -0.0461, -0.0424, -0.0114, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2057821080107057551", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-05-22T13:49:12+00:00", "symbol": "GDX", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "You can't own enough gold stocks in view of what's coming. $SSRM $GDX", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bullish gold miners; buy as much as possible given the macro backdrop ahead.", "resolved_tickers": ["GDX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": ".@TaviCosta IS DA MAN.\n\nYou can’t own enough gold stocks in view of what’s coming. \n\n$SSRM $GDX", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Gold miners are now doing more share buybacks than at any other point in history. \n\nWe have never seen anything remotely close to the scale of what is happening today.\n\nThis is a direct consequence of the extraordinary profitability the sector is generating at current metal https://t.co/a24pRN8VeL", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.011409095024731863, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.011409095024731863, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.01532524755566822, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01532524755566822, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0039161525309363565, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0039161525309363565, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.05257588093621335, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.05257588093621335, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03803804996227722, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03803804996227722, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.014537830973936128, "bench_c_p1w": 0.014537830973936128, "ret_p1m": -0.04210767281831118, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.04210767281831118, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.04300318731814512, "alpha_c_p1m": -0.04300318731814512, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.0008955144998339382, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0008955144998339382, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.04210767281831118, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.04300318731814512, "alpha_c_stated": -0.04300318731814512, "price_path": [0.302, 0.3075, 0.3396, 0.3625, 0.3566, 0.2378, 0.2454, 0.1976, 0.1924, 0.2049, 0.2158, 0.1922, 0.168, 0.0969, 0.1101, 0.1052, 0.0363, -0.0249, -0.0576, -0.0193, -0.0179, 0.0153, -0.0309, 0.0091, 0.0091, 0.0794, 0.1293, 0.1126, 0.1126, 0.1035, 0.117, 0.1548, 0.1568, 0.169, 0.1618, 0.185, 0.15, 0.1487, 0.1802, 0.166, 0.0937, 0.1113, 0.0843, 0.1096, 0.089, 0.0414, 0.0141, 0.0385, 0.0246, 0.0074, 0.0093, 0.0873, 0.0788, 0.1126, 0.148, 0.1426, 0.1319, 0.105, 0.0274, 0.0249, -0.0146, 0.0158, 0.0114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0409, 0.0049, 0.0254, 0.0526, 0.0195, 0.0356, -0.0002, 0.0162, -0.0727, -0.0747, -0.0874, -0.1319, -0.0859, -0.0587, 0.0029, 0.0261, -0.0078, -0.0295, -0.0295, -0.0421, -0.0866, -0.1227, -0.11, -0.0943, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2062629186129559661", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-06-04T20:14:54+00:00", "symbol": "BX", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "This is not the end. Nor is it the beginning of the end. This smacks of the beginning of the beginning.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish BX: BCRED redemption caps, NAV markdowns, and investor exodus signal an escalating crisis that is just getting started.", "resolved_tickers": ["BX"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLF", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Asset Management'", "bench_c_industry": "Asset Management", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "FROM THE ORACLE AT 82 DEVONSHIRE:\n\nBLACKSTONE $BX\n\n1) People want their money and can't get it. Not exactly a way to make friends of your investors. \n\n2) Who is going to commit to the next fund?  Step right up.  \n\n3)  This fund is the \"Big Daddy at $79 billion. Where has that all the flow of the past few years being invested.  Let me guess:\n    a) Commercial, residential and multi-family real estate.  b) AI.  c) Hotels/ Resorts?  \n\n4) See the highlight at the end. The NAV is getting marked down. Not only do the investors have no liquidity they are losing principal. \n\nThis is not the end. Nor is it the beginning of the end. This smacks of the beginning of the beginning.  \n\nJust my view.  \n\nBlackstone’s BCRED Caps Redemptions After Investors Seek 10% (2)\n2026-06-04 16:26:04 GMT\n\nBy Olivia Fishlow\n(Bloomberg) -- Blackstone Inc. limited redemptions from its\nflagship private credit fund for the first time after investors\nsought to pull 10% of the shares, the latest firm to cap\nwithdrawals amid a continued investor exodus.\nThe $79 billion Blackstone Private Credit Fund told\nshareholders that it would allow redemptions of only 5%,\naccording to a filing Thursday. That’s in contrast to the\nprevious quarter, when BCRED, the biggest fund of its kind, went\nto unusual lengths to allow investors to pull all of the 7.9% of\nshares requested. Senior executives were tapped to help finance\nthe withdrawals with their own cash at the time.\nBut investors asked to redeem even more this time around,\nand Blackstone’s move to cap them brings it in line with the\ndecision most of its peers made last quarter to limit\nwithdrawals.\nA spokesperson for the asset manager Thursday said the\nability to restrict redemptions is “a fundamental feature, with\ninvestors exchanging some liquidity at times for long-term\noutperformance.”\nAcross the $1.8 trillion private credit market, redemption\nrequests are expected to increase this quarter as investors\nredouble efforts to claw back money after being restricted.\nMeanwhile, fears over the credit cycle turning haven’t gone\naway, with market leaders warning of a potential ramp-up in\ndefaults as artificial intelligence continues to disrupt\nindustries and debt extended during the era of ultra-low rates\ncomes due.\n \nCliffwater LLC also told investors this week it capped\nredemptions from its flagship private credit vehicle at 5% after\nthey requested 17% to be returned. In the prior quarter, the\nCliffwater Corporate Lending Fund had given investors back about\nhalf of the 14% they had sought.\nOn Thursday, BCRED said in a letter to shareholders that\nrepurchases began to decelerate during the back end of its\ntender offer period. \n“But elevated requests suggest sentiment toward private\ncredit remain weak,” Michael Kaye, an analyst at Bloomberg\nIntelligence, wrote in a note Thursday.\nBCRED has delivered 9.3% in annualized total returns since\ninception, outperforming leveraged loans, the fund told\ninvestors. Its portfolio overall is marked at 96.1 cents on the\ndollar as of April 30, with the worst 5% of the portfolio marked\nat 68.3 cents on the dollar.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Blackstone is restricting withdrawals from its flagship Blackstone Private Credit (BCRED) fund following a spike in investor redemption requests, as fears over liquidity pressures rattled private markets.\n\nThe asset management giant capped investor withdrawals from the $79 https://t.co/EVgUpQuesR", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.027741695881813522, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.027741695881813522, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0012485532799249022, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.029844933176459643, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.02649314260188862, "bench_c_m1d": -0.002103237294646121, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.010056315977976293, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.010056315977976293, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012320488586747835, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.00374660409403782, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.002264172608771542, "bench_c_p1d": -0.006309711883938474, "ret_p1w": 0.06449937182335908, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.06449937182335908, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.05880484081655646, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.044614026252724814, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.005694531006802617, "bench_c_p1w": 0.01988534557063426, "ret_p1m": null, "ret_signed_p1m": null, "alpha_spy_p1m": null, "alpha_c_p1m": null, "bench_spy_p1m": null, "bench_c_p1m": null, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.0555, -0.0788, -0.1228, -0.0828, -0.0799, -0.038, -0.0248, -0.0253, -0.0514, -0.0607, -0.0725, -0.0691, -0.0583, -0.0717, -0.0414, -0.0123, -0.0179, -0.0289, -0.0289, -0.0359, -0.0317, 0.0107, 0.0041, -0.0136, 0.0464, 0.0851, 0.1183, 0.1006, 0.1088, 0.108, 0.1038, 0.1143, 0.0508, 0.0449, 0.0339, 0.0438, 0.0293, 0.0787, 0.0853, 0.0671, 0.0639, 0.081, 0.0605, 0.073, 0.0524, 0.0642, 0.037, 0.0616, 0.022, 0.0147, -0.0094, 0.0128, 0.0279, 0.0274, 0.0274, 0.024, 0.023, 0.0068, 0.014, 0.0138, -0.0038, -0.044, 0.0277, 0.0, -0.0101, 0.0428, 0.0271, 0.0479, 0.0645, 0.0805, 0.1085, 0.0837, 0.0732, 0.0732, 0.0686, 0.0409, -0.0205, -0.0101, 0.0004, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2067372910780571706", "ticker_idx": 1, "ts": "2026-06-17T22:24:46+00:00", "symbol": "gold", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "the things nobody would ever put on a cover - gold, silver, energy, real assets, the unloved corners of this market - are exactly where the next decade of returns is hiding", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "AI/tech consensus is a magazine-cover top; rotate out of crowded AI/large-cap tech into gold, silver, energy, and real assets for the next decade.", "resolved_tickers": ["GLD"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "GLD is the standard gold ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is one of the most reliable sell signals in history. \n\nJust look at TIME's latest issue.\n\nI've been doing this since 1981, and when I see a cover like that, I don't get excited.\n\nBecause history has a brutal sense of humor about moments exactly like this one:\n\nIn 1979, BusinessWeek ran the most infamous cover in the history of financial journalism: \"The Death of Equities.\" \n\nThe argument was that inflation had broken the stock market for good and that stocks were finished as a serious place to put your money, perhaps permanently.\nThe country agreed and everybody gave up.\n\nBut what came next was the single GREATEST bull market in American history. \n\nStocks returned roughly 18% a year for the next two decades. Off the 1982 low, with dividends reinvested, the S&P went on to gain nearly 7,000%. The cover that buried equities turned out to be the starting gun.\n\nNow look at the second cover. \n\nIn 2019. Bloomberg Businessweek puts a dead, deflated dinosaur on the front and asks \"Is Inflation Dead?\" The consensus was unanimous - inflation was extinct, a relic, never coming back. \n\n3 years later we printed the WORST inflation in four decades, with prices peaking at 9.1% in June of 2022. That was the exact opposite of what the cover declared, and it happened all over again.\n\nThis is the oldest pattern there is. \n\nBy the time a story is so obvious, so universally accepted, so completely understood that the editors of a mainstream magazine slap it on the cover, every single person who was ever going to believe it already does. \n\nSo the trade is crowded, the buyers are exhausted, and there is nobody left to come in behind you and push the price higher. \n\nThe cover doesn't predict the future the editors think they're describing - it marks the exact moment a belief became unanimous. And unanimous belief is the textbook definition of a top.\n\nBut here's what makes the AI cover even MORE dangerous than the two that came before it:\n\n\"Death of Equities\" and \"Is Inflation Dead\" were business magazines, read by people already in the markets. TIME is a general-interest newsweekly read by over 100 million people who don't trade stocks for a living. \n\nWhen the AI build-out has saturated the public mind so thoroughly that it becomes the cover of TIME, the message is that there's almost nobody left who hasn't already heard the story and bought in.\n\nAnd the fundamentals are screaming the same thing the cover is whispering:\n\nThe largest tech companies are set to spend north of $600 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, up from roughly $388 billion just last year. Tech investment is now running near 4.4% of GDP, approaching the peak of the dot-com bubble.\n\nThese founders are literally saying that they'd rather go bankrupt than lose this race. Hundreds of billions of dollars and mountains of debt are all resting on a single untested premise - that the profits eventually show up to justify the spending. But so far they haven't.\n\nNow let me be honest with you, because that's the only way I know how to do this.\n\nI'm not telling you AI is worthless or that the whole thing collapses tomorrow. The 1979 cover was about three years early, and the real bottom didn't arrive until 1982. The 2019 cover took two years to be proven right. \n\nCovers mark the mood, not the exact day, so I'm not calling the top to the week.\n\nWhat I am telling you is that the EASY money has already been made, the consensus is now total, and the risk and the reward have flipped upside down. When everyone you know already owns the story, the story stops being an opportunity and becomes a liability.\n\nMr. Market hands out a scorecard every single day, and that scorecard doesn't care what TIME magazine believes. It only cares about valuation. \n\nAnd right now the things nobody would ever put on a cover - gold, silver, energy, real assets, the unloved corners of this market - are exactly where the next decade of returns is hiding.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.003823132374963123, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.003823132374963123, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.014113139688654464, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.014113139688654464, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.01029000731369134, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01029000731369134, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.04561893956617613, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.04561893956617613, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.028959857952639112, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.028959857952639112, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01665908161353702, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01665908161353702, "ret_p1m": null, "ret_signed_p1m": null, "alpha_spy_p1m": null, "alpha_c_p1m": null, "bench_spy_p1m": null, "bench_c_p1m": null, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0437, 0.0439, 0.0754, 0.0349, 0.0712, 0.0709, 0.1115, 0.131, 0.1092, 0.1092, 0.1047, 0.1154, 0.1225, 0.1312, 0.1292, 0.1246, 0.1497, 0.1378, 0.1368, 0.1519, 0.142, 0.1097, 0.1244, 0.1135, 0.1192, 0.1105, 0.0899, 0.0782, 0.0944, 0.0931, 0.0713, 0.0805, 0.1132, 0.1151, 0.1205, 0.1228, 0.1183, 0.1121, 0.1036, 0.0779, 0.0809, 0.063, 0.0782, 0.0772, 0.069, 0.069, 0.0694, 0.0552, 0.0663, 0.0775, 0.0624, 0.0641, 0.0536, 0.0624, 0.0236, 0.0262, 0.0095, -0.0324, -0.0021, -0.0015, 0.0244, 0.0271, 0.0038, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0065, -0.0253, -0.0548, -0.0456, -0.0348, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2067372910780571706", "ticker_idx": 2, "ts": "2026-06-17T22:24:46+00:00", "symbol": "silver", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "gold, silver, energy, real assets, the unloved corners of this market - are exactly where the next decade of returns is hiding", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "AI/tech consensus is a magazine-cover top; rotate out of crowded AI/large-cap tech into gold, silver, energy, and real assets for the next decade.", "resolved_tickers": ["SLV"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "SLV is the standard silver ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is one of the most reliable sell signals in history. \n\nJust look at TIME's latest issue.\n\nI've been doing this since 1981, and when I see a cover like that, I don't get excited.\n\nBecause history has a brutal sense of humor about moments exactly like this one:\n\nIn 1979, BusinessWeek ran the most infamous cover in the history of financial journalism: \"The Death of Equities.\" \n\nThe argument was that inflation had broken the stock market for good and that stocks were finished as a serious place to put your money, perhaps permanently.\nThe country agreed and everybody gave up.\n\nBut what came next was the single GREATEST bull market in American history. \n\nStocks returned roughly 18% a year for the next two decades. Off the 1982 low, with dividends reinvested, the S&P went on to gain nearly 7,000%. The cover that buried equities turned out to be the starting gun.\n\nNow look at the second cover. \n\nIn 2019. Bloomberg Businessweek puts a dead, deflated dinosaur on the front and asks \"Is Inflation Dead?\" The consensus was unanimous - inflation was extinct, a relic, never coming back. \n\n3 years later we printed the WORST inflation in four decades, with prices peaking at 9.1% in June of 2022. That was the exact opposite of what the cover declared, and it happened all over again.\n\nThis is the oldest pattern there is. \n\nBy the time a story is so obvious, so universally accepted, so completely understood that the editors of a mainstream magazine slap it on the cover, every single person who was ever going to believe it already does. \n\nSo the trade is crowded, the buyers are exhausted, and there is nobody left to come in behind you and push the price higher. \n\nThe cover doesn't predict the future the editors think they're describing - it marks the exact moment a belief became unanimous. And unanimous belief is the textbook definition of a top.\n\nBut here's what makes the AI cover even MORE dangerous than the two that came before it:\n\n\"Death of Equities\" and \"Is Inflation Dead\" were business magazines, read by people already in the markets. TIME is a general-interest newsweekly read by over 100 million people who don't trade stocks for a living. \n\nWhen the AI build-out has saturated the public mind so thoroughly that it becomes the cover of TIME, the message is that there's almost nobody left who hasn't already heard the story and bought in.\n\nAnd the fundamentals are screaming the same thing the cover is whispering:\n\nThe largest tech companies are set to spend north of $600 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, up from roughly $388 billion just last year. Tech investment is now running near 4.4% of GDP, approaching the peak of the dot-com bubble.\n\nThese founders are literally saying that they'd rather go bankrupt than lose this race. Hundreds of billions of dollars and mountains of debt are all resting on a single untested premise - that the profits eventually show up to justify the spending. But so far they haven't.\n\nNow let me be honest with you, because that's the only way I know how to do this.\n\nI'm not telling you AI is worthless or that the whole thing collapses tomorrow. The 1979 cover was about three years early, and the real bottom didn't arrive until 1982. The 2019 cover took two years to be proven right. \n\nCovers mark the mood, not the exact day, so I'm not calling the top to the week.\n\nWhat I am telling you is that the EASY money has already been made, the consensus is now total, and the risk and the reward have flipped upside down. When everyone you know already owns the story, the story stops being an opportunity and becomes a liability.\n\nMr. Market hands out a scorecard every single day, and that scorecard doesn't care what TIME magazine believes. It only cares about valuation. \n\nAnd right now the things nobody would ever put on a cover - gold, silver, energy, real assets, the unloved corners of this market - are exactly where the next decade of returns is hiding.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.01848432733731631, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01848432733731631, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02877433465100765, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.02877433465100765, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.01029000731369134, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01029000731369134, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": -0.12014783923451189, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.12014783923451189, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.10348875762097487, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.10348875762097487, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01665908161353702, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01665908161353702, "ret_p1m": null, "ret_signed_p1m": null, "alpha_spy_p1m": null, "alpha_c_p1m": null, "bench_spy_p1m": null, "bench_c_p1m": null, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.0497, 0.0578, 0.0958, 0.0212, 0.066, 0.0674, 0.145, 0.145, 0.1055, 0.1055, 0.1106, 0.108, 0.1338, 0.1492, 0.1608, 0.1474, 0.2106, 0.2072, 0.1971, 0.2373, 0.2124, 0.1509, 0.1825, 0.1491, 0.1559, 0.1482, 0.1124, 0.0896, 0.1201, 0.1475, 0.108, 0.1075, 0.1785, 0.2032, 0.2269, 0.3107, 0.3199, 0.3334, 0.2689, 0.1601, 0.1753, 0.1242, 0.1549, 0.167, 0.1487, 0.1487, 0.1716, 0.1343, 0.1487, 0.1482, 0.1371, 0.1425, 0.1126, 0.1255, 0.0346, 0.0348, -0.0084, -0.0311, 0.022, 0.0299, 0.0665, 0.0652, 0.0185, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0101, -0.0635, -0.1299, -0.1201, -0.1047, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2067372910780571706", "ticker_idx": 3, "ts": "2026-06-17T22:24:46+00:00", "symbol": "energy", "kind": "sector", "geography": "US", "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "gold, silver, energy, real assets, the unloved corners of this market - are exactly where the next decade of returns is hiding", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "AI/tech consensus is a magazine-cover top; rotate out of crowded AI/large-cap tech into gold, silver, energy, and real assets for the next decade.", "resolved_tickers": ["XLE"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "XLE is the primary US energy sector ETF", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "This is one of the most reliable sell signals in history. \n\nJust look at TIME's latest issue.\n\nI've been doing this since 1981, and when I see a cover like that, I don't get excited.\n\nBecause history has a brutal sense of humor about moments exactly like this one:\n\nIn 1979, BusinessWeek ran the most infamous cover in the history of financial journalism: \"The Death of Equities.\" \n\nThe argument was that inflation had broken the stock market for good and that stocks were finished as a serious place to put your money, perhaps permanently.\nThe country agreed and everybody gave up.\n\nBut what came next was the single GREATEST bull market in American history. \n\nStocks returned roughly 18% a year for the next two decades. Off the 1982 low, with dividends reinvested, the S&P went on to gain nearly 7,000%. The cover that buried equities turned out to be the starting gun.\n\nNow look at the second cover. \n\nIn 2019. Bloomberg Businessweek puts a dead, deflated dinosaur on the front and asks \"Is Inflation Dead?\" The consensus was unanimous - inflation was extinct, a relic, never coming back. \n\n3 years later we printed the WORST inflation in four decades, with prices peaking at 9.1% in June of 2022. That was the exact opposite of what the cover declared, and it happened all over again.\n\nThis is the oldest pattern there is. \n\nBy the time a story is so obvious, so universally accepted, so completely understood that the editors of a mainstream magazine slap it on the cover, every single person who was ever going to believe it already does. \n\nSo the trade is crowded, the buyers are exhausted, and there is nobody left to come in behind you and push the price higher. \n\nThe cover doesn't predict the future the editors think they're describing - it marks the exact moment a belief became unanimous. And unanimous belief is the textbook definition of a top.\n\nBut here's what makes the AI cover even MORE dangerous than the two that came before it:\n\n\"Death of Equities\" and \"Is Inflation Dead\" were business magazines, read by people already in the markets. TIME is a general-interest newsweekly read by over 100 million people who don't trade stocks for a living. \n\nWhen the AI build-out has saturated the public mind so thoroughly that it becomes the cover of TIME, the message is that there's almost nobody left who hasn't already heard the story and bought in.\n\nAnd the fundamentals are screaming the same thing the cover is whispering:\n\nThe largest tech companies are set to spend north of $600 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, up from roughly $388 billion just last year. Tech investment is now running near 4.4% of GDP, approaching the peak of the dot-com bubble.\n\nThese founders are literally saying that they'd rather go bankrupt than lose this race. Hundreds of billions of dollars and mountains of debt are all resting on a single untested premise - that the profits eventually show up to justify the spending. But so far they haven't.\n\nNow let me be honest with you, because that's the only way I know how to do this.\n\nI'm not telling you AI is worthless or that the whole thing collapses tomorrow. The 1979 cover was about three years early, and the real bottom didn't arrive until 1982. The 2019 cover took two years to be proven right. \n\nCovers mark the mood, not the exact day, so I'm not calling the top to the week.\n\nWhat I am telling you is that the EASY money has already been made, the consensus is now total, and the risk and the reward have flipped upside down. When everyone you know already owns the story, the story stops being an opportunity and becomes a liability.\n\nMr. Market hands out a scorecard every single day, and that scorecard doesn't care what TIME magazine believes. It only cares about valuation. \n\nAnd right now the things nobody would ever put on a cover - gold, silver, energy, real assets, the unloved corners of this market - are exactly where the next decade of returns is hiding.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.016737863389469032, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.016737863389469032, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.027027870703160373, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.027027870703160373, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.01029000731369134, "bench_c_m1d": -0.01029000731369134, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.0, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0, "ret_p1w": 0.013205919043673964, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.013205919043673964, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.029865000657210983, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.029865000657210983, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.01665908161353702, "bench_c_p1w": -0.01665908161353702, "ret_p1m": null, "ret_signed_p1m": null, "alpha_spy_p1m": null, "alpha_c_p1m": null, "bench_spy_p1m": null, "bench_c_p1m": null, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.109, 0.1315, 0.1265, 0.1441, 0.1635, 0.1523, 0.1393, 0.0967, 0.1019, 0.1019, 0.1099, 0.1188, 0.0796, 0.0662, 0.059, 0.0621, 0.0405, 0.037, 0.0523, 0.0232, 0.0242, 0.0391, 0.0515, 0.0597, 0.0577, 0.0558, 0.0733, 0.0978, 0.1094, 0.0945, 0.1045, 0.1056, 0.0601, 0.0405, 0.0359, 0.0632, 0.0707, 0.0718, 0.08, 0.1054, 0.1267, 0.1399, 0.1121, 0.0997, 0.1064, 0.1064, 0.0759, 0.0599, 0.0591, 0.0469, 0.0656, 0.0779, 0.0919, 0.0926, 0.0725, 0.0848, 0.0673, 0.0833, 0.0623, 0.0703, 0.0331, 0.0296, 0.0167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0126, 0.0201, 0.0035, 0.0132, 0.0085, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2053974055166906650", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-11T23:02:30+00:00", "symbol": "FRPT", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "FRPT is still expensive. I expect another leg down from here.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Still short FRPT; expects another leg down after 34% drop, citing expensive valuation.", "resolved_tickers": ["FRPT"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLP", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Packaged Foods'", "bench_c_industry": "Packaged Foods", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "Two months ago at our Best Stock Ideas Summit, my good friend Tom Chanos pitched FRPT as a short at $80.\n\nToday FRPT trades at $53.\n\nA 34% drop in 8 weeks.\n\nMorgan Stanley just cut their target from $90 to $77. Jefferies cut from $75 to $70. Stifel from $84 to $78. \n\nThe sell-side is finally catching up to a thesis our subscribers got TWO MONTHS AGO.\n\nThis is what happens when you put 15 elite investors in a room and let them share what they actually own and short. Real alpha and real ideas.\n\nThe March conference attendees paid $99.\n\nThe Chanos FRPT call alone has paid for itself many times over.\n\nAnd here's the thing: FRPT is still expensive. I expect another leg down from here.\n\nThis is exactly why I'm hosting the Best Income Ideas Online Summit on May 20.\n\nSame format. Same caliber of speakers. 14 confirmed experts so far including Michael Howell, Luke Gromen, David Hay, John Roque, Jay Pelosky, plus the elite from Seeking Alpha covering dividend aristocrats, energy infrastructure, REITs, BDCs, and closed-end funds throwing off 7-10% yields.\n\nThe kind of income strategies that compound while you sleep.\n\nFRPT was just one of the many insane calls from March.\n\nAnd now we're doing it again.\n\nGrab your ticket for The Best Income Ideas Online Summit for May 20th:\n\nhttps://t.co/Ah4ySJGvg3", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "FRESH PET IS A REAL DOG OF A STOCK\n\nMy good friend Tom Chanos said at last week’s conference:\n\nSHORT FRESH PET STOCK\n\nAnd the market finally started to figure it out.\n\nFRPT dropped 10% yesterday on reports that Costco is developing its own fresh dog food under the Kirkland https://t.co/uifUBd5C1w", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.03179249178002319, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.03179249178002319, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.03330974295824918, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.01912073904119105, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0015172511782259868, "bench_c_m1d": -0.012671752738832143, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.05149208827925156, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.05149208827925156, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.05708692609386268, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.05480802779772298, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.00559483781461112, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0033159395184714224, "ret_p1w": -0.07567780443675998, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.07567780443675998, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.06964950181250318, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.09521825654250937, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.006028302624256798, "bench_c_p1w": 0.019540452105749395, "ret_p1m": -0.013068109570128161, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.013068109570128161, "alpha_spy_p1m": -0.004204082870673309, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.025502950999220175, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.01727219244080147, "bench_c_p1m": 0.012434841429092014, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.013068109570128161, "alpha_spy_stated": -0.004204082870673309, "alpha_c_stated": 0.025502950999220175, "price_path": [0.3242, 0.3209, 0.3209, 0.3983, 0.4232, 0.4564, 0.4533, 0.5327, 0.5777, 0.5531, 0.5849, 0.6472, 0.6454, 0.6405, 0.6676, 0.6616, 0.6119, 0.6156, 0.5953, 0.5668, 0.5221, 0.4941, 0.4701, 0.315, 0.2697, 0.2321, 0.2588, 0.2616, 0.1494, 0.1722, 0.1467, 0.0909, 0.104, 0.15, 0.1718, 0.1586, 0.1586, 0.151, 0.2296, 0.2684, 0.2996, 0.2639, 0.3312, 0.348, 0.3417, 0.3134, 0.3556, 0.3287, 0.2645, 0.2865, 0.2787, 0.2902, 0.2766, 0.2805, 0.29, 0.3142, 0.2707, 0.2397, 0.1736, 0.0713, 0.0897, 0.0353, -0.0318, 0.0, -0.0515, -0.0376, -0.0374, -0.055, -0.0757, -0.057, 0.0006, 0.006, 0.006, -0.0053, 0.0207, 0.0355, 0.0064, -0.0361, -0.0275, -0.0248, -0.04, -0.0298, 0.0025, -0.0023, -0.0131, 0.0185, 0.0271, 0.0628, 0.1135, 0.0856, 0.0729, 0.0729, -0.0068, 0.041, 0.0287, 0.0412, 0.1201, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2054656676532260927", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-13T20:15:00+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am short $TSLA", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Author explicitly confirms live short position in TSLA.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@Duckinator641 I am short $TSLA\nWhat a lame redouble from you", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Tell me you are short $TSLA without telling me you are short.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "Duckinator641", "ret_m1d": 0.004443946029665025, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.004443946029665025, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.012276428848364329, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.004022581637462164, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.007832482818699305, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0004213643922028609, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.04750732717914996, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.04750732717914996, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.035477983422353754, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.029474142269238945, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.012029343756796207, "bench_c_p1d": -0.018033184909911015, "ret_p1w": -0.0574102918796805, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.0574102918796805, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.05012579823107943, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.05766307186362851, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.007284493648601065, "bench_c_p1w": 0.00025277998394801493, "ret_p1m": -0.08317165831821915, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.08317165831821915, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.07459072044047976, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.06572835778980979, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.008580937877739392, "bench_c_p1m": -0.017443300528409367, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.08317165831821915, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.07459072044047976, "alpha_c_stated": 0.06572835778980979, "price_path": [-0.0583, -0.0737, -0.0721, -0.0713, -0.071, -0.0981, -0.0765, -0.0584, -0.0783, -0.092, -0.0902, -0.1148, -0.0843, -0.0852, -0.1051, -0.1007, -0.0994, -0.08, -0.1089, -0.1175, -0.1077, -0.0993, -0.114, -0.1421, -0.17, -0.1409, -0.136, -0.1294, -0.1606, -0.1838, -0.1986, -0.1614, -0.14, -0.1866, -0.1866, -0.2041, -0.218, -0.2257, -0.2203, -0.2128, -0.205, -0.1784, -0.1158, -0.1227, -0.0963, -0.1146, -0.1283, -0.1259, -0.157, -0.1511, -0.1458, -0.1518, -0.159, -0.1391, -0.1184, -0.1146, -0.1217, -0.1005, -0.0711, -0.0337, 0.0038, -0.0222, 0.0044, 0.0, -0.0475, -0.0751, -0.0884, -0.0587, -0.0574, -0.039, -0.039, -0.0219, -0.0066, -0.0027, -0.0169, -0.0619, -0.0441, -0.0442, -0.0561, -0.118, -0.0775, -0.1052, -0.1392, -0.0996, -0.0832, -0.0725, -0.0872, -0.1058, -0.0966, -0.0966, -0.0863, -0.1392, -0.1529, -0.1538, -0.1434, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2053870522924999018", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-11T16:11:06+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$OPEN remains an investment short. I warned you that $OPEN was only worth $1.50. That is still the case.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Reiterates short on Opendoor with $1.50 fair value target; calls it an investment short with documented prior short from $7.50.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN bag holders (or “army” as you like to be called), SELL is not a four letter word. \n\nHow is that “aggressive software” strategy working out for you?\n\nI warned you repeatedly last fall to no avail. You are getting the returns you deserve.\n\nMy short from $7.50 last fall is well documented.  I warned you that $OPEN was only worth $1.50. That is still the case.\n\n@ericjackson belongs in jail.\n@mikealfred bagged you.\n@APompliano bagged you.\n@rabois lied to you.\n\nAnd @nejatian , you were so fixated on burning the shorts! LOL. Your big payday will NEVER happen. Care to now answer my questions or accept my prior invitation to be interviewed? Nah, instead you will continue to hide from serious questions and instead continue to prey on financially illiterate investors with your  fallacious narrative. \n\n$OPEN remains an investment short.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.03298975822585892, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.03298975822585892, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.035262145762375297, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.0365795572496076, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0022723875365163737, "bench_c_m1d": -0.0035897990237486743, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.028865952420302543, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.028865952420302543, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.02735099980571598, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.029090433575282182, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0015149526145865622, "bench_c_p1d": 0.00022448115497963883, "ret_p1w": -0.11752571258398847, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.11752571258398847, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.1166465219227778, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.09912775515528538, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0008791906612106715, "bench_c_p1w": -0.018397957428703093, "ret_p1m": -0.10515459011814454, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10515459011814454, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.10211119326048557, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.11412934669423369, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.0030433968576589754, "bench_c_p1m": 0.008974756576089149, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10515459011814454, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.10211119326048557, "alpha_c_stated": 0.11412934669423369, "price_path": [-0.0186, -0.0969, -0.0835, -0.0835, -0.1072, -0.0454, -0.0412, 0.0309, -0.0144, 0.0536, 0.0268, 0.1155, 0.1175, 0.0412, 0.0247, 0.0062, 0.068, 0.0309, 0.0474, 0.033, 0.0866, -0.0021, 0.0206, 0.068, 0.1464, 0.0887, 0.0598, 0.0124, 0.0742, 0.068, 0.0515, 0.0103, -0.0103, -0.0866, -0.0351, -0.0577, -0.0227, -0.0227, -0.0495, -0.0619, -0.0433, -0.1113, -0.1093, -0.101, -0.0701, -0.0062, 0.0866, 0.0907, 0.1031, 0.1237, 0.1196, 0.0763, 0.1361, 0.1113, 0.1299, 0.1505, 0.1093, 0.1216, 0.0577, 0.0784, 0.1258, 0.0969, 0.033, 0.0, -0.0289, -0.0557, -0.0784, -0.0969, -0.1175, -0.1134, -0.0928, -0.0577, -0.066, -0.066, -0.0763, -0.0206, 0.0454, 0.0392, 0.0948, 0.1155, 0.0041, 0.0206, -0.0887, -0.1113, -0.1052, -0.0763, -0.0784, -0.0845, -0.0495, -0.0206, -0.0825, -0.0784, -0.0784, -0.1175, -0.134, -0.1175, -0.1134, -0.099, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2058516970018910286", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-24T11:54:25+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I believe $OPEN remains wildly overvalued", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish OPEN; believes it remains wildly overvalued even after prior short call.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@pueokeffer I wish you well but I believe $OPEN remains wildly overvalued.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 I have been buying $OPEN for 11 years and am neutral to cost.  One of the crazy ones but I think this is gonna work.  Congrats on your short - good call short term.  LONG 2M+ shares long term.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "pueokeffer", "ret_m1d": 0.011160756812943928, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.011160756812943928, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01775561725190944, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.014515708844359598, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006594860438965511, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00335495203141567, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06026785262879364, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06026785262879364, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06044109479353965, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.062057131689365774, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0001732421647460125, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0017892790605721354, "ret_p1w": 0.2075892465132081, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.2075892465132081, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.19562534643015783, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.2348761610125396, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01196390008305026, "bench_c_p1w": -0.027286914499331516, "ret_p1m": -0.04464281437804518, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.04464281437804518, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.024044280226878434, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.048893137522411645, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.020598534151166747, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0042503231443664635, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.04464281437804518, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.024044280226878434, "alpha_c_stated": 0.048893137522411645, "price_path": [0.2076, 0.2098, 0.1272, 0.1094, 0.0893, 0.1562, 0.1161, 0.1339, 0.1183, 0.1763, 0.0804, 0.1049, 0.1562, 0.2411, 0.1786, 0.1473, 0.096, 0.1629, 0.1562, 0.1384, 0.0938, 0.0714, -0.0112, 0.0446, 0.0201, 0.058, 0.058, 0.029, 0.0156, 0.0357, -0.0379, -0.0357, -0.0268, 0.0067, 0.0759, 0.1763, 0.1808, 0.1942, 0.2165, 0.2121, 0.1652, 0.2299, 0.2031, 0.2232, 0.2455, 0.2009, 0.2143, 0.1451, 0.1674, 0.2188, 0.1875, 0.1183, 0.0826, 0.0513, 0.0223, -0.0022, -0.0223, -0.0446, -0.0402, -0.0179, 0.0201, 0.0112, 0.0112, 0.0, 0.0603, 0.1317, 0.125, 0.1853, 0.2076, 0.0871, 0.1049, -0.0134, -0.0379, -0.0312, 0.0, -0.0022, -0.0089, 0.029, 0.0603, -0.0067, -0.0022, -0.0022, -0.0446, -0.0625, -0.0446, -0.0402, -0.0246, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2054618818425557476", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-13T17:44:33+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "STAY SHORT. (I am publicly short from 7.5 last fall) $OPEN looks awful technically. The stock shows poor relative strength and is below moving averages. Run, don't walk from $OPEN.", "tweet_type": "prediction", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Publicly short OPEN from $7.5; bearish on poor relative strength, below moving averages, urges others to run.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$OPEN looks awful technically. \n\nThis cat dude does not know how to read charts. \n\nThe stock shows poor relative strength and is below moving averages. \n\nRun, don’t walk from $OPEN.\n@rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @mikealfred @nejatian , what do you have to say to the army?\n\nSTAY SHORT. (I am publicly short from 7.5 last fall)", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "$OPEN monthly set-up is still extremely bullish. https://t.co/PpTm5B9jbo", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.028384304935910265, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.028384304935910265, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.0339480146967619, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02001504648465824, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005563709760851632, "bench_c_m1d": 0.008369258451252026, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02401749680061005, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.02401749680061005, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03191181170516455, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.01723170566928045, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0078943149045545, "bench_c_p1d": -0.006785791131329599, "ret_p1w": -0.03930127321770138, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.03930127321770138, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03787333241764401, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.04427754906132941, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0014279408000573701, "bench_c_p1w": 0.004976275843628031, "ret_p1m": -0.02401749680061005, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02401749680061005, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.017888034949307352, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.04007717346410378, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.006129461851302698, "bench_c_p1m": 0.016059676663493727, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02401749680061005, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.017888034949307352, "alpha_c_stated": 0.04007717346410378, "price_path": [-0.0295, -0.0295, -0.0546, 0.0109, 0.0153, 0.0917, 0.0437, 0.1157, 0.0873, 0.1812, 0.1834, 0.1026, 0.0852, 0.0655, 0.131, 0.0917, 0.1092, 0.0939, 0.1507, 0.0568, 0.0808, 0.131, 0.214, 0.1528, 0.1223, 0.0721, 0.1376, 0.131, 0.1135, 0.0699, 0.048, -0.0328, 0.0218, -0.0022, 0.0349, 0.0349, 0.0066, -0.0066, 0.0131, -0.059, -0.0568, -0.048, -0.0153, 0.0524, 0.1507, 0.155, 0.1681, 0.19, 0.1856, 0.1397, 0.2031, 0.1769, 0.1965, 0.2183, 0.1747, 0.1878, 0.1201, 0.1419, 0.1921, 0.1616, 0.0939, 0.059, 0.0284, 0.0, -0.024, -0.0437, -0.0655, -0.0611, -0.0393, -0.0022, -0.0109, -0.0109, -0.0218, 0.0371, 0.107, 0.1004, 0.1594, 0.1812, 0.0633, 0.0808, -0.0349, -0.059, -0.0524, -0.0218, -0.024, -0.0306, 0.0066, 0.0371, -0.0284, -0.024, -0.024, -0.0655, -0.083, -0.0655, -0.0611, -0.0459, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2059255202683748370", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-26T12:47:54+00:00", "symbol": "OPEN", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I remain short from $7.50\n$OPEN remains wildly overvalued!", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Remains short OPEN, calling it wildly overvalued.", "resolved_tickers": ["OPEN"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLRE", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Real Estate Services'", "bench_c_industry": "Real Estate Services", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@RosannaInvests I remain short from $7.50\n$OPEN remains wildly overvalued!\nRosanna please DM me.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "Watching the talent migration into $OPEN is more bullish than any chart pattern. 👀\n\nMost equity analysts read 10-Ks.\n\nOperators read the team page.\n\nHere’s what 26+ years of building, running, and acquiring companies taught me about valuing turnarounds:\n\nTop-tier talent doesn’t", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "RosannaInvests", "ret_m1d": 0.011160756812943928, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.011160756812943928, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.01775561725190944, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.014515708844359598, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.006594860438965511, "bench_c_m1d": -0.00335495203141567, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.06026785262879364, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.06026785262879364, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.06044109479353965, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.062057131689365774, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0001732421647460125, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0017892790605721354, "ret_p1w": 0.2075892465132081, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.2075892465132081, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.19562534643015783, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.2348761610125396, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.01196390008305026, "bench_c_p1w": -0.027286914499331516, "ret_p1m": -0.04464281437804518, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.04464281437804518, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.024044280226878434, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.048893137522411645, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.020598534151166747, "bench_c_p1m": 0.0042503231443664635, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.04464281437804518, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.024044280226878434, "alpha_c_stated": 0.048893137522411645, "price_path": [0.2076, 0.2098, 0.1272, 0.1094, 0.0893, 0.1562, 0.1161, 0.1339, 0.1183, 0.1763, 0.0804, 0.1049, 0.1562, 0.2411, 0.1786, 0.1473, 0.096, 0.1629, 0.1562, 0.1384, 0.0938, 0.0714, -0.0112, 0.0446, 0.0201, 0.058, 0.058, 0.029, 0.0156, 0.0357, -0.0379, -0.0357, -0.0268, 0.0067, 0.0759, 0.1763, 0.1808, 0.1942, 0.2165, 0.2121, 0.1652, 0.2299, 0.2031, 0.2232, 0.2455, 0.2009, 0.2143, 0.1451, 0.1674, 0.2188, 0.1875, 0.1183, 0.0826, 0.0513, 0.0223, -0.0022, -0.0223, -0.0446, -0.0402, -0.0179, 0.0201, 0.0112, 0.0112, 0.0, 0.0603, 0.1317, 0.125, 0.1853, 0.2076, 0.0871, 0.1049, -0.0134, -0.0379, -0.0312, 0.0, -0.0022, -0.0089, 0.029, 0.0603, -0.0067, -0.0022, -0.0022, -0.0446, -0.0625, -0.0446, -0.0402, -0.0246, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2054632626582179995", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-13T18:39:26+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The returns on invested capital have been chronically below what any serious investor would demand. That's not wealth creation. So the product here isn't the car. The product is the STOCK PRICE... gravity always wins. And when it does, the people who forced your pension fund into a money-losing rocket company at 120x revenue will have a lot of explaining to do.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: chronically subpar ROIC, valuation unjustified by fundamentals; gravity will eventually prevail.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "What's happening right now in our capital markets is going to DESTROY the retirement savings of millions of Americans.\n\nAnyone of good conscience needs to rise up and say enough. This must be stopped.\n\nI don't say that lightly. I've been doing this for 45 years, and what's happening right now to the integrity of our capital markets is unlike anything I have ever seen.\n\nThis is not about Elon Musk or Donald Trump. This is not about whether you like rockets or hate rockets.\n\nThis is about the systematic CORRUPTION of the financial system that every American depends on for their retirement.\n\nIn the entirety of its existence, Tesla has generated approximately $36 billion in cumulative profit. That includes over $20 billion in government emission credits and tax subsidies. The company is valued at $1.7 trillion and its CEO is the richest man on the planet.\n\nI'm not talking about the stock price. I know the stock has made people money. \n\nThat's the popularity contest. \n\nI'm talking about whether this company creates enough economic value to JUSTIFY the capital invested in it. And it doesn't. \n\nThe returns on invested capital have been chronically below what any serious investor would demand. That's not wealth creation.\n\nSo the product here isn't the car. The product is the STOCK PRICE.\n\nElon Musk is selling hopium and an entire generation of investors is buying it without even knowing what a PE ratio is.\n\nI posted two pieces recently on Tesla and SpaceX. Each got over 1.5 million impressions. Thousands of hate replies but NOT ONE response with an actual argument. Not one.\n\nIt was all \"Libtard\" and \"Elon derangement syndrome.\" You would not get past a first-round interview at Fidelity thinking this way.\n\nBut Tesla is just the opening act...\n\nSpaceX just filed for a $1.75 TRILLION IPO. $15 billion in revenue but no profit in sight.\n\nThe private valuation was walked up from $200 billion to $400 billion to $800 billion to $1.75 trillion in two years. And Reuters has confirmed that SpaceX made early inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 a necessary condition for listing on the exchange. Nasdaq obliged by adopting a \"Fast Entry\" rule in March that lets mega-cap IPOs join the index after just 15 trading days, completely exempt from the normal seasoning and liquidity requirements every other company had to meet.\n\nAnd this matters because over $600 billion in passive funds track the Nasdaq-100. Unlike the S&P 500, which still requires months of seasoning and stricter float thresholds, the Nasdaq-100 is now a 15-day on-ramp for trillion-dollar IPOs. \n\nEvery ETF and mutual fund benchmarked to that index will be FORCED to buy SpaceX within weeks of it going public regardless of whether the valuation makes any sense.\n\nYour 401(k) is literally the exit liquidity. You don't even get a choice.\n\nThe structure of the market makes you a participant whether you want to be or not.\n\nThat's what makes this different from every other bubble in history...\n\nYou can't opt out.\n\nAnd the agencies that were supposed to protect you from exactly this? They're doing NOTHING.\n\nPeter Lynch would always say the product is not the stock and the stock is not the product.\n\nShow me one Hall of Fame investor who ever made his fortune chasing hype.\n\nLynch, Druckenmiller, Soros, Buffett, Griffin, Cohen. Not one of them managed money this way. It's only the cult on X who thinks momentum and greater fool is an investment strategy.\n\nAs Buffett said, in the short run the market is a popularity contest. In the long run it's a weighing machine.\n\nThis popularity contest has gone on longer than any I've witnessed in my career. But gravity always wins. And when it does, the people who forced your pension fund into a money-losing rocket company at 120x revenue will have a lot of explaining to do.\n\nThis must stop. And it WILL stop.\n\nThe only question is how much damage gets done first.\n\nAre you listening?\n\n---\n\nhttps://t.co/PVgYG11eOY", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.026545639944931643, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.026545639944931643, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.02098193018408001, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0229236642518148, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.005563709760851632, "bench_c_m1d": -0.003621975693116841, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.004424284747029383, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.004424284747029383, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.012318599651583884, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.004003097827996571, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0078943149045545, "bench_c_p1d": -0.00042118691903281213, "ret_p1w": -0.06290560769678744, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06290560769678744, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.061477666896730065, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.056335516745912084, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.0014279408000573701, "bench_c_p1w": -0.006570090950875351, "ret_p1m": -0.10357759618910989, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.10357759618910989, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.09744813433780719, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.08319352729294927, "bench_spy_p1m": -0.006129461851302698, "bench_c_p1m": -0.020384068896160623, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.10357759618910989, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.09744813433780719, "alpha_c_stated": 0.08319352729294927, "price_path": [-0.0625, -0.0625, -0.0778, -0.0762, -0.0754, -0.0751, -0.1021, -0.0806, -0.0626, -0.0824, -0.096, -0.0942, -0.1187, -0.0883, -0.0892, -0.109, -0.1046, -0.1034, -0.0841, -0.1129, -0.1214, -0.1116, -0.1033, -0.1179, -0.1459, -0.1736, -0.1447, -0.1398, -0.1332, -0.1643, -0.1874, -0.2021, -0.1651, -0.1438, -0.1902, -0.1902, -0.2076, -0.2215, -0.2291, -0.2238, -0.2163, -0.2085, -0.1821, -0.1197, -0.1266, -0.1003, -0.1185, -0.1322, -0.1297, -0.1607, -0.1549, -0.1496, -0.1555, -0.1628, -0.1429, -0.1223, -0.1185, -0.1255, -0.1045, -0.0752, -0.038, -0.0006, -0.0265, 0.0, -0.0044, -0.0517, -0.0792, -0.0924, -0.0629, -0.0616, -0.0433, -0.0433, -0.0262, -0.011, -0.0071, -0.0213, -0.066, -0.0484, -0.0484, -0.0602, -0.1219, -0.0816, -0.1091, -0.143, -0.1036, -0.0872, -0.0766, -0.0912, -0.1098, -0.1006, -0.1006, -0.0903, -0.143, -0.1566, -0.1575, -0.1472, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2069544739829944329", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-06-23T22:14:50+00:00", "symbol": "WTI Crude Oil", "kind": "commodity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "If I had to bet the next $10 or $15 move in crude, I'm betting higher.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "weeks", "summary": "Long crude oil; expects $10-15 upside from current ~$74 WTI as China restocks, SPR refills, and shorts unwind from oversold/record-short levels.", "resolved_tickers": ["USO"], "resolution_method": "etf", "resolution_reason": "WTI crude oil; USO is standard ETF proxy", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "The most powerful force in the oil market is now a single country that doesn't produce a drop.\n\nOPEC IS DEAD\n\nAnd here's why you should change how you think about energy for the next decade:\n\nChina controls the oil price not by pumping it, but by REFUSING TO BUY IT.\n\nFor two years, while the West wasn't paying attention, China built a war chest of crude. \n\nThey bought cheap, sanctioned barrels at $60 while everyone else looked the other way. They stacked a reserve now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5 BILLION barrels.\n\nThen the world got its biggest supply shock in modern history and instead of panic-buying like everyone else, China did the opposite.\n\nThey stopped importing and started eating their own stockpile.\n\nChinese crude imports collapsed from 11.6 million barrels a day to under 8 million - the lowest level since 2017. That single decision accounted for roughly 74% of the entire drop in global oil demand, according to JPMorgan.\n\nSit with that number for a second.\n\nThe world lost 14% of its crude supply. In 1973, OPEC cut off just 7% and the price exploded 134%. \n\nThis shock was twice as large.\n\nBut oil went the other way. WTI sits at $74 today.\n\nBecause the world's largest buyer simply walked out of the store and lived off its pantry.\n\nTHAT is the new OPEC.\n\nFor 50 years we obsessed over the Saudis. We watched OPEC meetings like Fed meetings, parsing every production quota. Those days are ending and the most powerful swing force in oil is no longer a cartel that controls supply.\n\nIt's one country that controls DEMAND.\n\nAnd demand is the harder lever. You can cheat on a production quota but you can't force a billion-barrel buyer to show up if it doesn't want to.\n\nHere's what this means for your money right now:\n\nChina has capped the upside. As long as they're sitting on that hoard, they sell into every rally toward $100. No spike gets to run. The right tail is gone - stop dreaming about $150 oil.\n\nBut they've also built the floor. Those reserves are draining fast. \n\nJPMorgan expects China back as a major buyer by August to start refilling. The US has to refill its own SPR, now at its lowest since 1990. Everyone has to restock at once.\n\nYou don't get $100 oil - China sells it to you. You don't get $50 oil - China and everyone else has to come back and buy it.\n\nYou get a range. And right now we're sitting at the bottom of it.\n\nCrude is parked on its 200-day moving average. Retail traders are positioned near record short in Brent. Sentiment is in the gutter, RSI under 30.\n\nWhen the entire crowd leans the same way off the same wrong assumption, I want the other side of that trade.\n\nIf I had to bet the next $10 or $15 move in crude, I'm betting higher.\n\nBecause the most important player in the oil market already told you exactly what it's going to do.\n\nThe Saudis didn't break OPEC. China did - by building a reserve nobody could see and refusing to spend it when it mattered most.\n\n---\n\nWatch the full interview here - actionable advice, zero fluff:\n\nhttps://t.co/2omNj3LDe6", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04675887833186643, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04675887833186643, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.046295146320523006, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.046295146320523006, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0004637320113434207, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0004637320113434207, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": 0.028412800988368625, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.028412800988368625, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.026967165762915357, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.026967165762915357, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0014456352254532678, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014456352254532678, "ret_p1w": null, "ret_signed_p1w": null, "alpha_spy_p1w": null, "alpha_c_p1w": null, "bench_spy_p1w": null, "bench_c_p1w": null, "ret_p1m": null, "ret_signed_p1m": null, "alpha_spy_p1m": null, "alpha_c_p1m": null, "bench_spy_p1m": null, "bench_c_p1m": null, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [0.1685, 0.2215, 0.1972, 0.1675, 0.2976, 0.2976, 0.3072, 0.2991, 0.1721, 0.1945, 0.1743, 0.2087, 0.1652, 0.1534, 0.1839, 0.0917, 0.1414, 0.2066, 0.2174, 0.2675, 0.2456, 0.2675, 0.3134, 0.4172, 0.3839, 0.3435, 0.3887, 0.3564, 0.2602, 0.2698, 0.2568, 0.3045, 0.3576, 0.3363, 0.3454, 0.3946, 0.4046, 0.4391, 0.3573, 0.341, 0.3258, 0.3258, 0.2889, 0.2328, 0.2304, 0.2145, 0.2748, 0.2915, 0.3252, 0.2865, 0.2515, 0.2715, 0.2353, 0.2635, 0.2121, 0.1801, 0.1404, 0.0864, 0.0747, 0.0807, 0.0807, 0.0602, 0.0468, 0.0, 0.0284, -0.0076, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2055654238642925671", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-16T14:18:57+00:00", "symbol": "SPY", "kind": "etf", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "I am publicly short from 475", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Publicly short from 475, ongoing position.", "resolved_tickers": ["SPY"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": null, "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@killer0fkillers I am publicly short from  475.\nWhat an idiotic reply from you. \nHow about if I said show your long or stfu.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Show your short or stfu", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "killer0fkillers", "ret_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0007040045915216453, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.0066607880874933745, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "ret_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.009463220109380055, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "bench_c_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "ret_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "ret_signed_p1m": -0.015812682090149632, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.0, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.0, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "bench_c_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": -0.015812682090149632, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.0, "alpha_c_stated": 0.0, "price_path": [-0.0734, -0.0759, -0.0692, -0.0787, -0.072, -0.0642, -0.0694, -0.0738, -0.0733, -0.0815, -0.075, -0.0801, -0.0922, -0.0842, -0.0857, -0.0869, -0.1007, -0.1058, -0.0967, -0.0943, -0.107, -0.1092, -0.122, -0.1127, -0.1157, -0.1108, -0.1267, -0.1416, -0.1444, -0.1196, -0.1129, -0.1121, -0.1121, -0.1079, -0.1075, -0.0848, -0.0795, -0.0801, -0.0711, -0.0598, -0.0524, -0.0501, -0.0386, -0.0405, -0.0468, -0.0371, -0.0409, -0.0335, -0.0318, -0.0365, -0.0366, -0.0271, -0.0244, -0.0279, -0.0201, -0.0065, -0.0096, -0.0014, 0.0009, -0.0006, 0.005, 0.0129, 0.0007, 0.0, -0.0067, 0.0035, 0.0055, 0.0095, 0.0095, 0.0162, 0.016, 0.0216, 0.0241, 0.0269, 0.0283, 0.0211, 0.025, -0.0015, 0.0008, -0.0022, -0.0179, -0.0012, 0.0042, 0.0219, 0.0158, 0.0031, 0.0136, 0.0136, 0.0104, -0.0043, -0.0048, -0.0033, -0.0105, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2056007802607255722", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-17T13:43:53+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": false, "explicit_audit": "kept_implicit", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "Is am publicly short from $475.", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Publicly short TSLA from $475.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@RealRockwyn @elonmusk Is am publicly short from $475.\nYou are a financially illiterate clown.", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @elonmusk Then short it or stfu, you illiterate idiot \nElons knowledge, planning and risk and work ethics is comparable to none.\nIf he'd be the CEO of my company the company would be x100 valued overnight.\nNo other CEO did in human history what Elon did \nYou are literally a loser", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "RealRockwyn", "ret_m1d": 0.029878778242847348, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.029878778242847348, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.029174773651325703, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02807343878875379, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0018053394540935574, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.014341825466156255, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.014341825466156255, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0076810373786628805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0032517047213469485, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "bench_c_p1d": -0.011090120744809306, "ret_p1w": 0.03907417232818777, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03907417232818777, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.029610952218807718, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.014486855380046126, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "bench_c_p1w": 0.024587316948141646, "ret_p1m": -0.013000284639190007, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.013000284639190007, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02881296672933964, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.031397791207122716, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01839750656793271, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.013000284639190007, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02881296672933964, "alpha_c_stated": 0.031397791207122716, "price_path": [0.0032, 0.0042, 0.0045, -0.0248, -0.0015, 0.0181, -0.0034, -0.0182, -0.0163, -0.0428, -0.0099, -0.0108, -0.0323, -0.0276, -0.0262, -0.0053, -0.0365, -0.0458, -0.0352, -0.0261, -0.042, -0.0724, -0.1025, -0.0711, -0.0658, -0.0586, -0.0924, -0.1175, -0.1334, -0.0933, -0.0701, -0.1205, -0.1205, -0.1394, -0.1545, -0.1628, -0.157, -0.1489, -0.1404, -0.1117, -0.044, -0.0514, -0.0229, -0.0427, -0.0575, -0.0548, -0.0885, -0.0822, -0.0764, -0.0829, -0.0907, -0.0692, -0.0468, -0.0426, -0.0503, -0.0275, 0.0044, 0.0448, 0.0854, 0.0572, 0.0861, 0.0812, 0.0299, 0.0, -0.0143, 0.0177, 0.0192, 0.0391, 0.0391, 0.0576, 0.0741, 0.0783, 0.0629, 0.0144, 0.0335, 0.0334, 0.0206, -0.0463, -0.0025, -0.0325, -0.0693, -0.0264, -0.0087, 0.0028, -0.013, -0.0332, -0.0232, -0.0232, -0.012, -0.0692, -0.0841, -0.0851, -0.0739, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2055263471499927598", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-15T12:26:11+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "low", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA is wildly overvalued regardless of the metric!", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "TSLA is wildly overvalued across all valuation metrics; bearish.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "@dukesfan94 Read my prior posts.\n$TSLA is wildly overvalued regardless of the metric!", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 Hey George, as someone who has followed this space, I would be curious to hear why you are intent on using P/E here instead of EV/Revenue or a proper DCF.\n\nEV/Revenue shows what you’re actually paying for Tesla’s sales and growth trajectory instead of getting hung up on volatile", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "dukesfan94", "ret_m1d": 0.0498768426621643, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0498768426621643, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03770103189209717, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.031512489984669045, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01217581077006713, "bench_c_m1d": 0.018364352677495255, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.029011937010514632, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.029011937010514632, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.028308427692782856, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02720985093351569, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0007035093177317764, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0018020860769989433, "ret_p1w": 0.008928617891349688, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.008928617891349688, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.00017556456322420644, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.013812304518249885, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008753053328125482, "bench_c_p1w": 0.022740922409599573, "ret_p1m": -0.02626467552667111, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02626467552667111, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.047450587922293286, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.043770888853120526, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.021185912395622175, "bench_c_p1m": 0.017506213326449416, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02626467552667111, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.047450587922293286, "alpha_c_stated": 0.043770888853120526, "price_path": [-0.0275, -0.0259, -0.0249, -0.0247, -0.0531, -0.0305, -0.0115, -0.0324, -0.0467, -0.0448, -0.0706, -0.0386, -0.0395, -0.0604, -0.0558, -0.0545, -0.0342, -0.0645, -0.0735, -0.0632, -0.0544, -0.0698, -0.0993, -0.1286, -0.098, -0.0929, -0.0859, -0.1187, -0.1431, -0.1586, -0.1196, -0.0971, -0.146, -0.146, -0.1644, -0.179, -0.1871, -0.1815, -0.1736, -0.1654, -0.1375, -0.0717, -0.079, -0.0512, -0.0704, -0.0848, -0.0823, -0.1149, -0.1088, -0.1032, -0.1095, -0.1171, -0.0962, -0.0744, -0.0704, -0.0778, -0.0557, -0.0247, 0.0145, 0.0539, 0.0265, 0.0545, 0.0499, 0.0, -0.029, -0.0429, -0.0118, -0.0104, 0.0089, 0.0089, 0.0269, 0.0429, 0.047, 0.0321, -0.0151, 0.0036, 0.0035, -0.009, -0.074, -0.0315, -0.0605, -0.0963, -0.0547, -0.0374, -0.0263, -0.0416, -0.0612, -0.0515, -0.0515, -0.0407, -0.0962, -0.1106, -0.1116, -0.1007, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2055386772264092121", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-15T20:36:08+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital. The stock price is fueled by hopium, not profits. Musk is a disaster when it comes to running a business.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: stock fueled by hopium not profits, doesn't earn cost of capital, Musk a poor operator.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "TOTAL NONSENSE from @elonmusk \n\nOne hour of his time is worth zero \nsince he produces virtually no profits.\n\nThis is what he financial illiterati don’t understand.\n\n$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital. \n\nThe stock price is fueled by hopium, not profits. \n\nMusk is a disaster when it comes to running a business.\n\nFACTS", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Elon Musk reveals the brutal math behind why a single hour of his time is worth $100 million\n\n\"Tesla this year will do over $100 billion in revenue, so that's $2 billion a week. If I make slightly better decisions I can affect the outcome by a billion dollars. The marginal value https://t.co/dxj3b1iS3S", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.029878778242847348, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.029878778242847348, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.029174773651325703, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02807343878875379, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0018053394540935574, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.014341825466156255, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.014341825466156255, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0076810373786628805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0032517047213469485, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "bench_c_p1d": -0.011090120744809306, "ret_p1w": 0.03907417232818777, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03907417232818777, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.029610952218807718, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.014486855380046126, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "bench_c_p1w": 0.024587316948141646, "ret_p1m": -0.013000284639190007, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.013000284639190007, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02881296672933964, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.031397791207122716, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01839750656793271, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.013000284639190007, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02881296672933964, "alpha_c_stated": 0.031397791207122716, "price_path": [0.0032, 0.0042, 0.0045, -0.0248, -0.0015, 0.0181, -0.0034, -0.0182, -0.0163, -0.0428, -0.0099, -0.0108, -0.0323, -0.0276, -0.0262, -0.0053, -0.0365, -0.0458, -0.0352, -0.0261, -0.042, -0.0724, -0.1025, -0.0711, -0.0658, -0.0586, -0.0924, -0.1175, -0.1334, -0.0933, -0.0701, -0.1205, -0.1205, -0.1394, -0.1545, -0.1628, -0.157, -0.1489, -0.1404, -0.1117, -0.044, -0.0514, -0.0229, -0.0427, -0.0575, -0.0548, -0.0885, -0.0822, -0.0764, -0.0829, -0.0907, -0.0692, -0.0468, -0.0426, -0.0503, -0.0275, 0.0044, 0.0448, 0.0854, 0.0572, 0.0861, 0.0812, 0.0299, 0.0, -0.0143, 0.0177, 0.0192, 0.0391, 0.0391, 0.0576, 0.0741, 0.0783, 0.0629, 0.0144, 0.0335, 0.0334, 0.0206, -0.0463, -0.0025, -0.0325, -0.0693, -0.0264, -0.0087, 0.0028, -0.013, -0.0332, -0.0232, -0.0232, -0.012, -0.0692, -0.0841, -0.0851, -0.0739, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "reply:2055660389497471047", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-16T14:43:23+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital. The stock has appreciated on the basis of hopium, not profits and cash flow.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Bearish TSLA: stock doesn't earn its cost of capital and price is based on hopium rather than fundamentals.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "reply_other", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "$TSLA does not earn its cost of capital.\nDo  you understand that?\n\nThe stock has appreciated on the basis of hopium, not profits and cash flow.\nDo you understand that? \n\nIf you do not understand those truths then you are financially illiterate and need to t add me a few finance classes.\nDo you understand that?", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": "@gnoble79 @elonmusk Tesla generates billions in annual net profits, Elon Musk’s decisions have demonstrably created substantial enterprise value. There's literal evidence of it. You are purely engagement farming because you don't have actually have any of substance to say.", "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": "elpis_of_batman", "ret_m1d": 0.029878778242847348, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.029878778242847348, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.029174773651325703, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.02807343878875379, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0007040045915216453, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0018053394540935574, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.014341825466156255, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.014341825466156255, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.0076810373786628805, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.0032517047213469485, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0066607880874933745, "bench_c_p1d": -0.011090120744809306, "ret_p1w": 0.03907417232818777, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.03907417232818777, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.029610952218807718, "alpha_c_p1w": -0.014486855380046126, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.009463220109380055, "bench_c_p1w": 0.024587316948141646, "ret_p1m": -0.013000284639190007, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.013000284639190007, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.02881296672933964, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.031397791207122716, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.015812682090149632, "bench_c_p1m": 0.01839750656793271, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.013000284639190007, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.02881296672933964, "alpha_c_stated": 0.031397791207122716, "price_path": [0.0032, 0.0042, 0.0045, -0.0248, -0.0015, 0.0181, -0.0034, -0.0182, -0.0163, -0.0428, -0.0099, -0.0108, -0.0323, -0.0276, -0.0262, -0.0053, -0.0365, -0.0458, -0.0352, -0.0261, -0.042, -0.0724, -0.1025, -0.0711, -0.0658, -0.0586, -0.0924, -0.1175, -0.1334, -0.0933, -0.0701, -0.1205, -0.1205, -0.1394, -0.1545, -0.1628, -0.157, -0.1489, -0.1404, -0.1117, -0.044, -0.0514, -0.0229, -0.0427, -0.0575, -0.0548, -0.0885, -0.0822, -0.0764, -0.0829, -0.0907, -0.0692, -0.0468, -0.0426, -0.0503, -0.0275, 0.0044, 0.0448, 0.0854, 0.0572, 0.0861, 0.0812, 0.0299, 0.0, -0.0143, 0.0177, 0.0192, 0.0391, 0.0391, 0.0576, 0.0741, 0.0783, 0.0629, 0.0144, 0.0335, 0.0334, 0.0206, -0.0463, -0.0025, -0.0325, -0.0693, -0.0264, -0.0087, 0.0028, -0.013, -0.0332, -0.0232, -0.0232, -0.012, -0.0692, -0.0841, -0.0851, -0.0739, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "quote:2055325330739474461", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-05-15T16:31:59+00:00", "symbol": "TSLA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "The value of a $TSLA share is maybe $54. Whereas the price of a $TSLA share is $424. Mind the gap. $TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history. The coming bust will be epic.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Strongly bearish TSLA: intrinsic value ~$54 vs $424 price, 80% earnings estimate decline, declining deliveries, no near-term profit from future businesses; calls it the biggest bubble in market history.", "resolved_tickers": ["TSLA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "XLY", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Auto Manufacturers'", "bench_c_industry": "Auto Manufacturers", "unit_kind": "quote", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "VALUE vs PRICE. \n\nThe value of a $TSLA share is maybe $54.\n\nWhereas the price of a $TSLA share is $424.\n\nMind the gap. \n\n$TSLA earnings estimates have declined by 80%.\n\n2026 will be the third consecutive year of declining auto deliveries for $TSLA\n\nMusk already admitted that cybercabs ain’t happening anytime soon.\n\nThe other future businesses will not generate profits for years.\n\nAnd for all those who insist that $TSLA is not an auto company, please note that 87% of revenues come from auto and auto related. \n\nOnly a financial illiterate who wants to play greater fool theory would own $TSLA. @SawyerMerritt @TeslaBoomerMama @ICannot_Enough \n\n@elonmusk is unable to earn his cost of capital.\n\nHopium is the product. \n\n$TSLA is the biggest bubble in stock market history. \n\nThe coming bust will be epic.\n\n@BradMunchen  @GordonJohnson19", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": "Wall Street veteran George Noble @gnoble79 strips away the “Elon hype” and values $TSLA based on its actual business fundamentals. \n\nHis conclusion? Tesla looks closer to a $54 stock while trading around $374.\n\nWhen he posted the math online, he says not one credible valuation https://t.co/RQ8Z3ZwTF8", "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.0498768426621643, "ret_signed_m1d": -0.0498768426621643, "alpha_spy_m1d": -0.03770103189209717, "alpha_c_m1d": -0.031512489984669045, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.01217581077006713, "bench_c_m1d": 0.018364352677495255, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.029011937010514632, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.029011937010514632, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.028308427692782856, "alpha_c_p1d": 0.02720985093351569, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.0007035093177317764, "bench_c_p1d": -0.0018020860769989433, "ret_p1w": 0.008928617891349688, "ret_signed_p1w": -0.008928617891349688, "alpha_spy_p1w": -0.00017556456322420644, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.013812304518249885, "bench_spy_p1w": 0.008753053328125482, "bench_c_p1w": 0.022740922409599573, "ret_p1m": -0.02626467552667111, "ret_signed_p1m": 0.02626467552667111, "alpha_spy_p1m": 0.047450587922293286, "alpha_c_p1m": 0.043770888853120526, "bench_spy_p1m": 0.021185912395622175, "bench_c_p1m": 0.017506213326449416, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": 0.02626467552667111, "alpha_spy_stated": 0.047450587922293286, "alpha_c_stated": 0.043770888853120526, "price_path": [-0.0275, -0.0259, -0.0249, -0.0247, -0.0531, -0.0305, -0.0115, -0.0324, -0.0467, -0.0448, -0.0706, -0.0386, -0.0395, -0.0604, -0.0558, -0.0545, -0.0342, -0.0645, -0.0735, -0.0632, -0.0544, -0.0698, -0.0993, -0.1286, -0.098, -0.0929, -0.0859, -0.1187, -0.1431, -0.1586, -0.1196, -0.0971, -0.146, -0.146, -0.1644, -0.179, -0.1871, -0.1815, -0.1736, -0.1654, -0.1375, -0.0717, -0.079, -0.0512, -0.0704, -0.0848, -0.0823, -0.1149, -0.1088, -0.1032, -0.1095, -0.1171, -0.0962, -0.0744, -0.0704, -0.0778, -0.0557, -0.0247, 0.0145, 0.0539, 0.0265, 0.0545, 0.0499, 0.0, -0.029, -0.0429, -0.0118, -0.0104, 0.0089, 0.0089, 0.0269, 0.0429, 0.047, 0.0321, -0.0151, 0.0036, 0.0035, -0.009, -0.074, -0.0315, -0.0605, -0.0963, -0.0547, -0.0374, -0.0263, -0.0416, -0.0612, -0.0515, -0.0515, -0.0407, -0.0962, -0.1106, -0.1116, -0.1007, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "orig:2069825445906768040", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-06-24T16:50:16+00:00", "symbol": "CRWV", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "long", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "We're pulling the trigger on CoreWeave", "tweet_type": "position_disclosure", "timeline": "unspecified", "summary": "Initiating/entering a long position in CoreWeave.", "resolved_tickers": ["CRWV"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SPY", "bench_c_reason": "country_fallback (suffix='')", "bench_c_industry": "Software - Infrastructure", "unit_kind": "original", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "We're pulling the trigger on CoreWeave\n\nhttps://t.co/ieNubn1Ovk", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": 0.04797783603350725, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.04797783603350725, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.04751410402216383, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.04751410402216383, "bench_spy_m1d": 0.0004637320113434207, "bench_c_m1d": 0.0004637320113434207, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": 0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.02101501957679397, "ret_signed_p1d": -0.02101501957679397, "alpha_spy_p1d": -0.022460654802247237, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.022460654802247237, "bench_spy_p1d": 0.0014456352254532678, "bench_c_p1d": 0.0014456352254532678, "ret_p1w": null, "ret_signed_p1w": null, "alpha_spy_p1w": null, "alpha_c_p1w": null, "bench_spy_p1w": null, "bench_c_p1w": null, "ret_p1m": null, "ret_signed_p1m": null, "alpha_spy_p1m": null, "alpha_c_p1m": null, "bench_spy_p1m": null, "bench_c_p1m": null, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 21, "stated_label": "p1m", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.2584, -0.3145, -0.2321, -0.2224, -0.1848, -0.1848, -0.1977, -0.155, -0.1188, -0.088, 0.0111, 0.0931, 0.1618, 0.1765, 0.1852, 0.1583, 0.1641, 0.1416, 0.2147, 0.164, 0.0918, 0.1108, 0.0461, 0.1319, 0.1063, 0.1797, 0.2434, 0.2677, 0.3678, 0.2772, 0.1315, 0.137, 0.0681, 0.1034, 0.1322, 0.0636, 0.0286, -0.0106, 0.004, 0.0664, 0.0457, 0.0457, 0.0497, 0.0336, 0.0593, 0.0857, 0.2373, 0.1823, 0.0996, 0.0709, -0.0049, 0.0148, -0.0241, -0.0522, -0.051, -0.0033, 0.0578, 0.1601, 0.142, 0.1692, 0.1692, 0.1032, 0.048, 0.0, -0.021, -0.0426, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}
{"unit_id": "thread:2062616388963844440", "ticker_idx": 0, "ts": "2026-06-04T19:24:03+00:00", "symbol": "NVDA", "kind": "equity", "geography": null, "sub_sector": null, "direction": "short", "conviction": "high", "explicit": true, "explicit_audit": "verified", "polarity_reversed": false, "quote": "NVIDIA IS BUYING ITS OWN CHIPS AND CALLING IT REVENUE... It's the Girl Scout whose dad bought all the cookies... Same greed. With the same ending.", "tweet_type": "analysis", "timeline": "years", "summary": "Bearish NVDA and Apollo on alleged Enron-style revenue inflation via GPU-backed securities routed through Apollo's insurance arm to retirees; compares to 2008 MBS collapse.", "resolved_tickers": ["NVDA"], "resolution_method": "identity", "resolution_reason": "structural marker; pre-classified as canonical yfinance ticker", "bench_c": "SMH", "bench_c_reason": "industry='Semiconductors'", "bench_c_industry": "Semiconductors", "unit_kind": "self_thread", "lang": "en", "tweet_text": "NVIDIA IS BUYING ITS OWN CHIPS AND CALLING IT REVENUE\n\nAnd your retirement account is secretly holding the bag.\n\nThis scheme is literally straight out of the Enron playbook...\n\nIn January 2026, a special purpose vehicle called Valor Compute Infrastructure was created with one purpose:\n\nBuy Nvidia's chips so Nvidia could book the sale as revenue.\n\nValor raised $5.4 billion and purchased over 100,000 of Nvidia's GB200 GPUs.\n\nBut $1.9 billion of that money came FROM Nvidia itself.\n\nNvidia invested $1.9 billion into the shell company, then sold that same shell company $5.4 billion worth of its own chips and booked every dollar as revenue.\n\nIt's the Girl Scout whose dad bought all the cookies and then she wins the sales contest because Dad was the customer. Except this Girl Scout is a trillion-dollar company and the cookie sale is $5.4 billion.\n\nBut it gets MUCH worse:\n\nThe remaining $3.5 billion in financing came from Apollo Global Management. Apollo structured the debt, packaged it into securities, and then sold those securities to Athene.\n\nAnd guess who Athene is? Apollo's OWN insurance subsidiary. The one that sells fixed annuities to American retirees as safe, conservative retirement products.\n\nFollow the chain:\n\nNvidia funds a shell company with $1.9 billion. The shell company buys $5.4 billion in Nvidia chips. Apollo finances the remaining $3.5 billion. Apollo sells the debt to its own insurance arm. That insurance arm packages it into annuity products and sells them to retirees who think they're buying something safe.\n\nThe retirees have no idea that their retirement savings are now backed by 100,000 computer chips sitting in some data center that will be worth pennies on the dollar in three years.\n\nNow look at what's happening inside Athene:\n\n$74.2 billion in US reserves but $217 billion in assets have been shifted to a Bermuda-based captive insurer, outside normal US regulatory oversight.\n\n$103 billion of that portfolio (roughly 35%) is classified as Level 3 assets. That means there is no observable market price. \n\nThese assets are valued by internal models, not by actual markets.\n\nAnd sitting on top of all those unpriced assets? 16.6x leverage.\n\nIf you're getting flashbacks to 2008, you should be.\n\nBack then it was mortgages bundled into securities that nobody understood, sold to investors who had no idea what they were holding, rated as safe by agencies that never looked under the hood.\n\nToday it's GPU-backed securities. Computer chips bundled into structured credit instruments, routed through an offshore insurance subsidiary, and sold to you as a retirement product.\n\nThe collateral is 100,000 GPUs leased to a single customer through an xAI subsidiary. If xAI stops making lease payments for any reason - financial distress, a pivot in strategy, anything - the entire structure unravels. \n\nAnd Nvidia releases new architectures every year, so each generation delivers dramatically more compute per watt. A 5 year lease on technology that's obsolete in 2 years creates a mismatch that should terrify every annuity holder in America.\n\nEvery single step in this chain is technically legal. The SPV is legal, the lease is legal, Nvidia's equity stake is legal, the securitization is legal, and the Bermuda transfer is legal.\n\nBut legality and legitimacy are not the same thing.\n\nI've seen every trick Wall Street has ever pulled in my 45 years of doing this.\n\nAnd what I'm looking at right now is a pipeline that takes AI infrastructure risk, launders it through 8 layers of financial engineering, and deposits it in the retirement accounts of Americans who never agreed to fund Elon Musk's data centers.\n\nIn 2008 it was mortgage-backed securities.\n\nIn 2026 it's GPU-backed securities.\n\nDifferent asset. Same greed. With the same ending.\n\n---\n\nWatch the full interview below:\n\nhttps://t.co/EVZytvAs3o", "reply_text": null, "parent_text": null, "quoted_text": null, "parent_author": null, "ret_m1d": -0.01902498670281616, "ret_signed_m1d": 0.01902498670281616, "alpha_spy_m1d": 0.015260525656036528, "alpha_c_m1d": 0.03555008451973929, "bench_spy_m1d": -0.0037644610467796324, "bench_c_m1d": 0.01652509781692313, "ret_t0": 0.0, "ret_signed_t0": -0.0, "alpha_spy_t0": 0.0, "alpha_c_t0": 0.0, "bench_spy_t0": 0.0, "bench_c_t0": 0.0, "ret_p1d": -0.062014073591381225, "ret_signed_p1d": 0.062014073591381225, "alpha_spy_p1d": 0.03620470234245554, "alpha_c_p1d": -0.030156857129299053, "bench_spy_p1d": -0.025809371248925683, "bench_c_p1d": -0.09217093072068028, "ret_p1w": -0.06306598515488582, "ret_signed_p1w": 0.06306598515488582, "alpha_spy_p1w": 0.03753400800821549, "alpha_c_p1w": 0.03425458769857326, "bench_spy_p1w": -0.025531977146670326, "bench_c_p1w": -0.02881139745631256, "ret_p1m": null, "ret_signed_p1m": null, "alpha_spy_p1m": null, "alpha_c_p1m": null, "bench_spy_p1m": null, "bench_c_p1m": null, "ret_p3m": null, "ret_signed_p3m": null, "alpha_spy_p3m": null, "alpha_c_p3m": null, "bench_spy_p3m": null, "bench_c_p3m": null, "ret_p6m": null, "ret_signed_p6m": null, "alpha_spy_p6m": null, "alpha_c_p6m": null, "bench_spy_p6m": null, "bench_c_p6m": null, "ret_p1y": null, "ret_signed_p1y": null, "alpha_spy_p1y": null, "alpha_c_p1y": null, "bench_spy_p1y": null, "bench_c_p1y": null, "stated_td": 252, "stated_label": "p1y", "ret_signed_stated": null, "alpha_spy_stated": null, "alpha_c_stated": null, "price_path": [-0.1657, -0.156, -0.1502, -0.1634, -0.1766, -0.1631, -0.1689, -0.1759, -0.1843, -0.2111, -0.1977, -0.1997, -0.1838, -0.2178, -0.2348, -0.2455, -0.2033, -0.1972, -0.1897, -0.1897, -0.1885, -0.1864, -0.1683, -0.1599, -0.1383, -0.1352, -0.1023, -0.0916, -0.0939, -0.0787, -0.077, -0.087, -0.075, -0.088, -0.0486, -0.0105, -0.0262, -0.0441, -0.0884, -0.0935, -0.0933, -0.1024, -0.0506, -0.0339, -0.017, 0.0024, 0.0085, 0.0316, 0.0769, 0.0293, 0.0156, 0.0077, 0.0208, 0.0027, -0.0164, -0.0164, -0.0185, -0.0288, -0.0213, -0.0355, 0.0249, 0.0178, -0.019, 0.0, -0.062, -0.0458, -0.0479, -0.0834, -0.0631, -0.0616, -0.0284, -0.0514, -0.0641, -0.0364, -0.0364, -0.0458, -0.0852, -0.0899, -0.1048, -0.1195, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null, null]}