XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @InTheAssembly · 11 Jun 2026

@InTheAssembly · 141 verified calls backtested

Avoid

@InTheAssembly's calls have trailed their sector by 2.8% per month, winning 39% of the time.

-2.8%
Avg. return vs its sector
per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)
+0.1%
1 day
-2.8%
1 month
3 months
the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months
39%
Calls that beat the market
based on 36 deduplicated bets
39% beat their sector 61% didn't

Even their cleanest calls trailed the market.

What “return vs sector” means
Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 36 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.
Indistinguishable from luck

Across 36 bets, @InTheAssembly's average call trailed its sector by 2.8% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = -1.1, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = -1.1 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 36 bets count as 20 effective ones. That's why the honest t is -1.1, not the raw -1.4. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day +0.1% +0.2% 49% 123
1 month -2.8% -2.2% 39% 36

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction26 calls · 31% hit
-5.2%
Low conviction10 calls · 60% hit
+3.4%

Return by post type

News Reaction4 calls · 50% hit
+2.1%
Prediction3 calls · 33% hit
-0.4%
Analysis29 calls · 38% hit
-3.7%

Long vs short

Long36 calls · 39% hit
-2.8%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-05-11 NOW
“ServiceNow (NOW) was just spotlighted by Jensen as the leader in agentic AI. Around $90.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
Jensen Huang might be the best stock picker on Wall Street and he does not even pick stocks. He has quietly signaled 3 new names for 2026. Keep reading to see which ones. Here’s the pattern: Every time NVIDIA invests in a company or Jensen mentions one in a keynote, the stock rips. The track record over the last 18 months: – Nebius spotlighted as an AI cloud partner at $21, up 840%. – Applied Digital referenced as an infrastructure partner at $3, up 1,400%. – Taiwan Semi called critical to the AI buildout at $180, up 135%. – Micron confirmed as the HBM memory supplier at $86, up 770%. Now look at where NVIDIA's capital is flowing in 2026: – ServiceNow (NOW) was just spotlighted by Jensen as the leader in agentic AI. Around $90. – CoreWeave received a $2 billion direct investment from NVIDIA in January. Around $114. – IREN just signed a 5 gigawatt partnership with NVIDIA this week to deploy DSX AI infrastructure globally. Around $60. Jensen never tells anyone what to buy, because he doesn’t need to. The market follows wherever his capital and his words go. Pay attention to this list. When new investments are announced, we will share them here. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss our alert, this is VERY important. If you don’t follow us, you might regret it.
+17.2%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit B · 2026-05-11 PL
“PL - the AI engine for satellite imagery”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
… Project Suncatcher last November. SpaceX acquired xAI in a $1.25 trillion deal aimed at space data centers. SpaceX filed to launch 1 million orbital AI satellites. Every hyperscaler is going to orbit. --- The public stocks positioned for this trade: NVDA - the picks and shovels for everything PL - the AI engine for satellite imagery FLY - the spacecraft and launch hardware RKLB - the dominant small-launch provider that benefits from every deployment. This is a multi-year theme. --- When we make a new move in the market, we will share it here. Follow us @InTheAssembly with notifications before it’s too late.
-21.8%vs sector
Exhibit C · 2026-05-11 VRT
“The cooling and power play that Wall Street finally caught up to.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
… TN) Record Electrical Americas sales of $3.6 billion in Q1. Backlog up 44% year over year. Power management is the new bottleneck and Eaton is sitting on a record book of business. --- Vertiv (VRT) Just joined the S&P 500 in March 2026. Organic orders grew 81%. Stock ran 170% in 12 months. The cooling and power play that Wall Street finally caught up to. --- Bloom Energy (BE) $20 billion total backlog. $5 billion partnership with Brookfield. Just secured a 2.8 gigawatt deal with Oracle. The fastest deployable power source for AI data centers. --- Every major company in the AI power supply chain is reporting record orders, record backlogs, and demand accelerating faster than they can build. The bottleneck of the entire AI revolution is no longer chips. It’s electricity. --- Remember: in 4 days, we will reveal exactly which stocks Leopold Aschenbrenner is buying RIGHT NOW. Follow us with notifications so you don’t miss our alerts, this is VERY important.
-21.6%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

  • 1 day long analysis posts +0.2% vs +0.1% overall · 107 bets
  • 1 month long news-reaction posts +2.1% vs -2.8% overall · 4 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →
THE RECEIPTS
@InTheAssembly · audited 11 Jun 2026

calls found141
independent bets36
beat the market39%
avg edge / month-2.8%
best callNOW +17.2%
worst callPL -21.8%

VERDICT: AVOID
SCORE 1/10

Watch out for
their long news-reaction posts · +2.1% after 1 month

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How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @InTheAssembly's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.