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@jimcramer · 1886 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@jimcramer's high-conviction long calls have beaten their sector by 1.3% on average in the month after each call, winning 50% of the time.

+0.2%
1 day
+1.3%
1 month
+1.8%
3 months
Avg. market-beating return
per call · vs the stock's own sector
50%
Calls that beat the market
based on 196 high-conviction long calls
50% beat their sector 50% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day +0.5% +0.5% 50% 1858
1 month +0.8% +0.7% 51% 1793
3 months +2.0% +1.8% 52% 1700
6 months +1.2% +0.7% 46% 1542

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction248 calls · 50% hit
+1.4%
Low conviction1545 calls · 51% hit
+0.7%

Return by post type

News Reaction86 calls · 51% hit
+1.8%
Analysis878 calls · 52% hit
+0.9%
Prediction782 calls · 48% hit
+0.6%
Position Disclosure46 calls · 57% hit
+0.2%

Long vs short

Short296 calls · 53% hit
+1.9%
Long1497 calls · 50% hit
+0.6%

Best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

CoreWeave
“Tell em to go buy some CoreWeave”
Long · low conviction · 2025-05-01 · View on X ↗
Full post
i think yesterday smoked the shorts real bad and they didn't get to cover. Now staring at a gaping rally.. I expect lots of DeepSeek exaggerations and questions about "real" data center spend. Tiresome. Tell em to go buy some CoreWeave
+145.6%
INTC
“The paranoid Intel is back!! And good partners with Elon.. Really terrific conference call.”
Long · low conviction · 2026-04-23 · View on X ↗
Full post
The paranoid Intel is back!! And good partners with Elon.. Really terrific conference call.
+74.2%
SMCI
“the SuperMicro quarter is breathtaking becuase there are just so many orders for this stuff”
Long · low conviction · 2024-01-29 · View on X ↗
Full post
What can i say, the SuperMicro quarter is breathtaking becuase there are just so many orders for this stuff....
+70.7%

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

AMC
“The latter i actually like”
Long · low conviction · 2022-08-10 · View on X ↗
Full post
Of course i knew that last night's primer would stir the remaining stragglers who still just care about GME, BBBY and AMC. The latter i actually like. The former has nothing to offer until its deal with Metaverse and the middle? KNOCK YOURSELF OUT
-56.1%
GME
“the latter two are being sacrificed”
Short · low conviction · 2021-08-04 · View on X ↗
Full post
there is not enough money around to support $HOOD, $AMD, $GME and $AMC so the latter two are being sacrificed!!!.
-42.2%
HOOD
“$HOOD is insane! We love it on @MadMoneyOnCNBC”
Long · low conviction · 2021-08-04 · View on X ↗
-41.4%

See every call for yourself — filter by conviction or direction, switch the time horizon, and chart any single trade.

Explore the Analysis →
How we measured this · download the raw data

We pulled @jimcramer's post history, used AI to extract each investment call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtested every call against real price history. “Beating the market” means out-performing the stock's own sector over the month after the post — so a call only counts as a win if it beat a fair benchmark, not just if the stock rose. The headline numbers use the cleanest signal: high-conviction long calls.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.