XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @kevinxu · 22 Jun 2026

out of 10

@kevinxu · 117 verified calls backtested

Avoid

@kevinxu's calls have trailed their sector by 4.3% per month, winning 25% of the time.

-4.3%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

-1.1%

1 day

-4.9%

1 month

-2.7%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

25%

Calls that beat the market

based on 32 deduplicated bets

25% beat their sector 75% didn't

Even their cleanest calls trailed the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 32 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Indistinguishable from luck

Across 32 bets, @kevinxu's average call trailed its sector by 4.3% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = -1.3, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = -1.3 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 32 bets count as 32 effective ones. That's why the honest t is -1.3, not the raw -1.3. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	-1.1%	-1.0%	41%	34
1 month	-4.9%	-6.1%	24%	29
3 months	-2.7%	-4.8%	38%	26
6 months	-5.5%	-2.5%	47%	15
1 year	-3.1%	+10.5%	30%	10

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction66 calls · 29% hit

-6.8%

Low conviction6 calls · 50% hit

-6.7%

Return by post type

Analysis6 calls · 50% hit

+2.5%

Prediction24 calls · 25% hit

-6.9%

Position Disclosure41 calls · 32% hit

-8.0%

Long vs short

Long72 calls · 31% hit

-6.8%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-05-18 BOT

“I'm still all in* $BOT”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

I'm sorry, my thesis on $BOT was wrong. $BOT is not the $DRAM of robots. $BOT is the MicroStrategy of robots. It's literally in the name, RoboStrategy. This should either excite you or terrify you, depending on your risk tolerance and understanding of accretive issuance. --- And yes, I'm still all in* $BOT *in my challenge account. https://t.co/8UH4ZL8ytk

+27.9%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-04-14 IREN

“Why I held $IREN from -31% to +5% Thesis never broke … 150k GPUs coming online $3.7B ARR target … Next earnings is May 13, a month away”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Why I held $IREN from -31% to +5% Thesis never broke: - Sweetwater + Childress ramping - 150k GPUs coming online - $3.7B ARR target My #1 rule is to not chase. I'd rather hold in anticipation of a pop rather than chase something that fades the next day. New deals can change things very quickly. Next earnings is May 13, a month away. Don't listen to doomers. Unless you're using them to mark the bottom. Congrats to those that bought at $31! Appreciate a follow for those in on this ride with me.

+21.3%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-11-20 FIG

“went all in $FIG in my challenge account bought 1190 shares at 36.74”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

went all in $FIG in my challenge account bought 1190 shares at 36.74 lets run this to $10M again witness me @kevinxu https://t.co/WjI6B292Ni

+13.0%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-06-20 PEW

“I just put $90K into a consumer marketplace SPAC that will trade as $PEW after the shareholder vote”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

The 2020-21 meme-stock run taught me one rule: when attention moves faster than research, price spikes first and fundamentals catch up later. That energy is creeping back. I just put $90K into a consumer marketplace SPAC that will trade as $PEW after the shareholder vote. Why I like it: - Vote expected late June, the point where SPACs usually sprint. - “PEW” is a ticker built for screenshots and memes, free distribution. - Social volume, option flow, and tweets moving markets look like early 2021 all over again. I grew a $30K account to eight figures by front-running catalysts exactly like this. Founders, VCs, market junkies: what overlooked catalyst are you tracking right now? Not financial advice, ofc.

-55.5%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2024-03-25 RDDT

“I've still got my 690 shares of RDDT sitting happy. I'll be buying more on any dips too”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Reddit is up 50% on the first day of options trading. So where are the supposed puts buyers? 🤨 Be wary of what you read online. Oftentimes the loudest voices are the most wrong. They’re optimizing for engagement, with nothing monetary on the line for them being wrong. On @AfterHour_HQ folks put their money where their mouth is. Every post comes with a verified position attachment. This simple feature elevates the conversation and signal immensely I’ve still got my 690 shares of RDDT sitting happy. I’ll be buying more on any dips too The narwhal bacons at midnight!

-33.1%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-01-28 IREN

“$IREN go up. all in.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@jiahanjimliu why waste time say lot word when few word do trick? $IREN go up. all in.

-28.8%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

3 months long predictions +6.7% vs -2.7% overall · 9 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@kevinxu · audited 22 Jun 2026

calls found117

independent bets32

beat the market25%

avg edge / month-4.3%

best callBOT +27.9%

worst callPEW -55.5%

VERDICT: AVOID

SCORE 1/10

Watch out for

their long predictions · +6.7% after 3 months

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @kevinxu's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.