XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @itsmichaelluu · 12 Jun 2026

@itsmichaelluu · 176 verified calls backtested

@itsmichaelluu's calls have beaten their sector by 5.7% per month, winning 47% of the time.

+5.7%
Avg. return vs its sector
per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)
+0.2%
1 day
+6.3%
1 month
-1.0%
3 months
the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months
47%
Calls that beat the market
based on 70 deduplicated bets
47% beat their sector 53% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means
Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 70 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.
Unlikely to be luck

Across 70 bets, @itsmichaelluu's average call beat its sector by 5.7% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 2.1, unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 2.1 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 70 bets count as 51 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 2.1, not the raw 2.5. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day +0.2% +0.3% 42% 124
1 month +6.3% +7.2% 48% 69
3 months -1.0% -1.3% 41% 41
6 months -3.2% -2.2% 29% 35
1 year +1.1% +1.5% 37% 19

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction81 calls · 36% hit
+6.9%
Low conviction8 calls · 50% hit
+0.4%

Return by post type

Analysis13 calls · 38% hit
+6.8%
Prediction73 calls · 36% hit
+5.1%

Long vs short

Long77 calls · 43% hit
+7.3%
Short12 calls · 0% hit
+0.0%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-05-02 DDOG
“DDOG — PT: $160. The least destroyed name for a reason. AI complexity is DDOG's tailwind, not headwind.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
SAAS is trash right now. My top 4 plays for recovery: 1. SNOW — PT: $160 The data layer every enterprise AI app runs on. $7.8B RPO backlog = revenue already contracted. Cortex AI platform is the pick-and-shovel for every enterprise LLM deployment Consumption model re-rates violently when AI workloads scale each query = more Snowflake compute 2. CRM — PT: $220 Agentforce is gaining real traction and nobody's ripping out 25 years of CRM infrastructure. If 1-2 Agentforce case studies land with real ROI, the narrative flips from "AI victim" to "AI winner" overnight Moat is deeper than the market prices switching costs on the world's largest CRM are basically infinite 3. DDOG — PT: $160 The least destroyed name for a reason. AI complexity is DDOG's tailwind, not headwind. Every company running LLMs needs observability DDOG's LLM monitoring tool is direct monetization of the AI buildout. FedRAMP High authorization cracked open the entire federal government market in late 2025 4. ADBE — PT: $300 Michael Burry is buying. Trading at 18x forward PE lowest since 2018. The creative moat (Photoshop, Premiere, Acrobat) is 30 years deep and still untouched. Firefly AI is live and embedded across the entire suite the disruption the market feared is actually becoming the revenue driver
+65.6%vs sector
Exhibit B · 2026-05-01 ASTS
“I like this stock and am holding lots of it for the long term”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
@cristi9he Support for ASTS at 67-69 then 62 area and then 52. This actually needs to break above 80. or its still in the downtrend. I like this stock and am holding lots of it for the long term. https://t.co/gx52OZZ8Ay
+52.4%vs sector
Exhibit C · 2026-04-27 POET Technologies
“I added POET LEAPS June 2028 $25 for $2 (long-term hold)”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
I added POET LEAPS June 2028 $25 for $2 (long-term hold) MRVL announced the cancellation of all purchase orders previously placed by Poet Technologies with Celestial AI. This includes the orders for the initial production units that were initially announced in a press release on April 25, 2023. The formal notification regarding this cancellation was issued by Marvell on April 23.
+49.4%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2026-05-10 PLAB
“My price target for PLAB is first $100+ from here then if thesis plays out $400+”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
$PLAB is the next $INTC and here's why: 1. The "Pure-Play" Stencil Maker: makes the chips and the masks; Photronics is the only independent US giant that focuses 100% on the masks. As AI designs get more complex, every chipmaker needs these masks, making PLAB the "neutral" winner. 2. Massive US Expansion: PLAB is doubling down on American soil, nearly doubling its 2026 investment to $330 million for new US and Korea facilities. Just like Intel is the face of US chip making, PLAB is becoming the face of the US "blueprint" supply chain. 3. Record Revenue from AI: While other sectors fluctuate, PLAB just hit record-breaking sales for the high-end masks used specifically for AI chips. They aren't just making masks; they are making the most expensive masks required for the AI boom. 4. The "Silent Partner" to Giants: PLAB is a direct beneficiary of massive AI deals, such as Tesla's $16.5 billion chip contract with Samsung (PLAB's second-largest customer). When the biggest companies build AI in Texas, they rely on PLAB's tech to get it done. My price target for PLAB is first $100+ from here then if thesis plays out $400+
-47.0%vs sector
Exhibit E · 2026-04-23 POET Technologies
“POET optical interposer technology is still pre-revenue-ramp with a market cap under $500M, yet it sits inside a $35B optical interconnect market that's doublin…”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
On November 30, 2022, ChatGPT launched. SPY was at $390 and now up 80% at $712. Since then, AI has changed our world. $APLD $1 -> $42 (4100%) $IONQ $5 -> $84 (1580%) $ASTS $2 -> $120 (5900%) $IREN $2 -> $80 (3900%) $NVDA $180 -> $2000 (1011%) $PLTR $7 -> $202 (2786%) $HOOD $15 -> $150 (900%) $APP $60 -> $740 (1133%) $OKLO $6 -> $200 (3233%) $LITE $30 -> $900 (3000% There's 3 stocks that hasn't run 1000%-5000% yet (I like these too a lot): 1. $POET optical interposer technology is still pre-revenue-ramp with a market cap under $500M, yet it sits inside a $35B optical interconnect market that's doubling every two years. When Foxconn and Luxshare who supply every major hyperscaler on earth start scaling POET's engines into millions of units, the revenue inflection will be violent. A single large production contract could reprice this stock overnight. Buy zone: $5-$6 2. $NBIS is essentially building the GPU cloud that every mid-market AI company desperately needs but can't get from AWS or Azure. Analysts expect EBITDA to explode from $1.3B in 2026 to over $10B by 2028 that's an 8x earnings ramp in two years on a stock that's still relatively unknown outside institutional circles. When that EBITDA hits and the market re-rates it like a hyperscaler, the multiple expansion alone gets you there. Buy zone: $70-$80 3. $VRT has a $15B backlog on a company doing ~$10B in revenue meaning future revenue is already booked, locked, and contracted. As NVIDIA transitions to…
-30.5%vs sector
Exhibit F · 2025-11-28 COIN
“COIN Nov 28 $290 or Dec 5 $300”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
NOVEMBER plays for 200%-1000%: 4 LOTTOS play for me: 1. SPY calls Nov 28 $685 2. IWM calls Nov 28 $250 3. TSLA calls Nov 28 $440 4. COIN Nov 28 $290 or Dec 5 $300 ALWAYS stop out 0.25-0.30 from your ENTRY price and aim for at least 100% target before you sell. https://t.co/cCi5Ehqe7w
-18.9%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

  • 1 day long position disclosures +6.6% vs +0.2% overall · 3 bets
  • 1 month long predictions +7.4% vs +6.3% overall · 49 bets
  • 3 months long analysis posts +2.2% vs -1.0% overall · 8 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →
THE RECEIPTS
@itsmichaelluu · audited 12 Jun 2026

calls found176
independent bets70
beat the market47%
avg edge / month+5.7%
best callDDOG +65.6%
worst callPLAB -47.0%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING
SCORE 9/10

Watch out for
their long predictions · +7.4% after 1 month

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How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @itsmichaelluu's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.