XAnalytics@IAMYellowCake · 13 verified calls backtested
@IAMYellowCake's calls have trailed their sector by 2.5% per month, winning 40% of the time.
Too few price-backed calls to draw a conclusion yet.
What “return vs sector” means
Across 10 bets, @IAMYellowCake's average call trailed its sector by 2.5% — t = -0.3, not enough to tell skill from chance.
t = -0.3 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.
How the t-value works
Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:
Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 10 bets count as 7 effective ones. That's why the honest t is -0.3, not the raw -0.3. Full breakdown on the analysis page.
Performance over time
| After | vs sector | vs S&P 500 | Hit rate | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | +0.9% | +0.9% | 70% | 10 |
| 1 month | -2.5% | -2.5% | 40% | 10 |
| 3 months | -14.4% | -14.4% | 30% | 10 |
| 6 months | -23.3% | -23.3% | 10% | 10 |
| 1 year | +34.6% | +34.6% | 67% | 3 |
“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.
What drives the signal
Does conviction matter?
Return by post type
Long vs short
The evidence — best & worst calls
Biggest wins (after 1 month)
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Biggest misses (after 1 month)
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Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon
- 1 day long predictions +0.9% vs +0.9% overall · 10 bets
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How we measured this · download the raw data
We pull @IAMYellowCake's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.
Download the full backtest data (JSONL)
Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.