XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @wliang · 23 Jun 2026

out of 10

@wliang · 968 verified calls backtested

Worth Following

@wliang's calls have beaten their sector by 5.9% per month, winning 51% of the time.

+5.9%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

-0.3%

1 day

+7.7%

1 month

+17.6%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

51%

Calls that beat the market

based on 331 deduplicated bets

51% beat their sector 49% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 331 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Very unlikely to be luck

Across 331 bets, @wliang's average call beat its sector by 5.9% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 3.6, very unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 3.6 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 331 bets count as 306 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 3.6, not the raw 3.7. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	-0.3%	-0.3%	44%	358
1 month	+7.7%	+7.0%	54%	317
3 months	+17.6%	+13.4%	48%	258
6 months	+25.1%	+18.1%	50%	173
1 year	+54.4%	+46.3%	47%	57

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction681 calls · 52% hit

+7.4%

Low conviction83 calls · 58% hit

+5.5%

Return by post type

Analysis126 calls · 59% hit

+10.3%

Prediction601 calls · 52% hit

+7.1%

Position Disclosure23 calls · 43% hit

-1.3%

News Reaction14 calls · 43% hit

-4.3%

Long vs short

Long761 calls · 53% hit

+7.3%

Short3 calls · 0% hit

-8.9%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-05-19 AMPG

“we just got our third Weekly Blue Diamond on $AMPG. This is ground zero. … Once that flips bullish, we'll likely be in the $5-6 range.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

As mentioned before, we just got our third Weekly Blue Diamond on $AMPG. This is ground zero. Note the bull tracker at the very bottom. Once that flips bullish, we'll likely be in the $5-6 range. I said the same thing about $DGXX early on before it flipped from ~$6 to ~$8. https://t.co/p0YkVLIqwD

+142.1%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2025-09-06 IREN

“Blue skies ahead for #IREN LT, eyeing a break above $30 next!”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$IREN = relentless powerhouse. Volatile week: early gap-up, hitting ATH w/ strongest weekly candle close. Vol stayed elevated, surging on 9/5. Trading above key SMAs, but RSI signals overbought conditions. Holding above gap, finding support near $25.30. Possible gap fill before we move up? Blue skies ahead for #IREN LT, eyeing a break above $30 next! 🔷

+133.9%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-06-25 QS

“Next stop: $7.5-8 imminently if we break $6”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$QS #QS Came in with a God-candle. Next stop: $7.5-8 imminently if we break $6. https://t.co/jKw2m3r4vT

+118.2%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-11-03 DGXX

“Quite bullish on $DGXX. … Could see $8-10 imminently.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Quite bullish on $DGXX. Up around 60% since the quoted post. Blue diamonds caught it around $2.45. Oddly enough, it doesn't plunge with BTC, But has no problem rallying with it. Earnings next week. Could see $8-10 imminently. https://t.co/PkdLljec1z

-43.5%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2026-04-14 SIDU

“Remember what I said the last time we saw a Tuesday dip on $SIDU... rallied ~40% from the lows the next day. Some of the easiest trades you can take.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

-38.8%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-05-13 SLNH

“$SLNH at ~$260M MC in the renewable AI power layer. Same ecosystem, completely different risk profile … but the math works the same way … the asymmetry is signi…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

One could say $AMD is one side of the barbell, as the de-risked and established setup that has high probability of working out. Extremely low risk. Now the other side of the barbell... $SLNH at ~$260M MC in the renewable AI power layer. Same ecosystem, completely different risk profile. Very early stage, much higher volatility... but the math works the same way. Increasing demand of $AMD chips → data centers → data centers need power → $TLN and $CEG dominate the AI data center power market at the moment. Going down the same chain... $SLNH provides renewable power + compute infrastructure. If $SLNH executes at a much earlier stage toward what $TLN (~$17B) or $CEG (~$106B) looks like, the asymmetry is significant. One end gives you probability. The other end gives you size of outcome. Both ride the same supercycle. (Disclosure: I have positions in both $AMD and $SLNH)

-37.5%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long news-reaction posts +1.4% vs -0.3% overall · 6 bets
1 month long predictions +8.4% vs +7.7% overall · 247 bets
3 months long news-reaction posts +33.2% vs +17.6% overall · 6 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@wliang · audited 23 Jun 2026

calls found968

independent bets331

beat the market51%

avg edge / month+5.9%

best callAMPG +142.1%

worst callDGXX -43.5%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING

SCORE 9/10

Watch out for

their long predictions · +8.4% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @wliang's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.