XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @sunxliao · 11 Jun 2026

out of 10

@sunxliao · 658 verified calls backtested

Worth Following

@sunxliao's calls have beaten their sector by 5.4% per month, winning 54% of the time.

+5.4%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.4%

1 day

+7.4%

1 month

+17.4%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

54%

Calls that beat the market

based on 285 deduplicated bets

54% beat their sector 46% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 285 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Unlikely to be luck

Across 285 bets, @sunxliao's average call beat its sector by 5.4% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 2.9, unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 2.9 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 285 bets count as 210 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 2.9, not the raw 3.4. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.4%	+0.3%	50%	314
1 month	+7.4%	+7.8%	55%	283
3 months	+17.4%	+19.1%	58%	221
6 months	+36.9%	+38.7%	60%	131
1 year	+46.9%	+58.3%	48%	67

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction387 calls · 60% hit

+9.2%

Low conviction157 calls · 48% hit

+3.4%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure21 calls · 71% hit

+23.2%

Prediction459 calls · 58% hit

+8.5%

Analysis63 calls · 44% hit

-4.4%

Long vs short

Long544 calls · 57% hit

+7.5%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-08-19 OPEN

“we are SO back... 🔷 Not much resistance until $4.50 IMO!”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$OPEN #OPEN we are SO back... 🔷 Not much resistance until $4.50 IMO! Stay tuned. https://t.co/QKNKTl6SI6

+181.2%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-05-11 MNTS

“space rallies hard this week … some tickers are ABOVE their gold zone and far from meaningful resistance: $MNTS”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

I think space rallies hard this week. This has overall been a VERY healthy correction with many charts fully reset... but some tickers are ABOVE their gold zone and far from meaningful resistance: $MNTS, $RDW, and $RKLB For those asking me about MNTS... Vigoride-7 launched on SpaceX Transporter-16 carrying 10 payloads. Vigoride-8 just completed Preliminary Design Review. NASA contract for Space Storms missions. New Space Act Agreement for in-orbit servicing. 4 catalysts in 60 days. They also wiped out their convertible debt and brought in Citadel, who owns approx 10%. Cleaner balance sheet, less dilution overhang, and a real buyer showing up. $UFO ETF (our favorite space basket) also owns all of them, reinforcing our bullish stance. We have increased our space positions... just beware of volatility as earnings are coming up... we'll update if we expect any additional turbulence. These type of tickers are rollercoasters! NFA. Enjoy the ride and have a wonderful week.

+125.5%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-09-08 IREN

“$IREN invalidated that square. Both continue to be massively bullish. Absolutely every dip is for buying IMO.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$CIFR held where it had to. $IREN invalidated that square. Both continue to be massively bullish. Absolutely every dip is for buying IMO. Don't listen to bears (yet)! 🔷🫡 https://t.co/j467WIq1QZ

+98.4%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-11-02 DGXX

“I think this just continues to trend higher”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$DGXX #DGXX relatively "new" blue diamonds. I think this just continues to trend higher... 🔷 https://t.co/XD31S4GFPm

-43.5%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2026-01-27 TMQ

“you can buy it now for $6.88”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$TMQ if you didn't buy on the morning apocalypse to $5.87 or the epic recovery to $6.41, that's OK, because you can buy it now for $6.88. 🫡📈 https://t.co/6J8m26bnjA

-42.7%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-04-14 SIDU

“I'm looking to continue buying #SIDU, as it FINALLY broke major resistance”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Space stocks by market cap (updated)! I'm looking to continue buying #SIDU, as it FINALLY broke major resistance. $SIDU at $4.93 ~ $327.94 Million 🔥 $SPIR at $23.14 ~ $810.16 Million 🔥 $SATL at $7.55 ~ $1.08 Billion 🔥 $BKSY at $34.79 ~ $1.29 Billion $VOYG at $30.06 ~ $1.78 Billion $RDW at $9.99 ~ $1.92 Billion $LUNR at $24.41 ~ $5.29 Billion $FLY at $38.80 ~ $6.21 Billion $PL at $34.32 ~ $11.88 Billion $ASTS at $98.97 ~ $37.81 Billion $RKLB at $70.62 ~ $40.66 Billion SpaceX IPO ~ $1.75 Trillion IMO space stocks continue to rally and close this massive valuation gap. Will keep updating... 🫡📈

-38.8%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long position disclosures +1.7% vs +0.4% overall · 8 bets
1 month long position disclosures +20.6% vs +7.4% overall · 7 bets
3 months long position disclosures +51.1% vs +17.4% overall · 4 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@sunxliao · audited 11 Jun 2026

calls found658

independent bets285

beat the market54%

avg edge / month+5.4%

best callOPEN +181.2%

worst callDGXX -43.5%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING

SCORE 9/10

Watch out for

their long position disclosures · +20.6% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @sunxliao's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.