XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @Guv999 · 23 Jun 2026

out of 10

@Guv999 · 1321 verified calls backtested

Marginal

@Guv999's calls have beaten their sector by 1.2% per month, winning 50% of the time.

+1.2%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.3%

1 day

+1.3%

1 month

+3.0%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

50%

Calls that beat the market

based on 507 deduplicated bets

50% beat their sector 50% didn't

A slight edge — promising, but not decisive.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 507 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Not yet conclusive

Across 507 bets, @Guv999's average call beat its sector by 1.2% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 1.5, but not decisive yet.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 1.5 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 507 bets count as 366 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 1.5, not the raw 1.7. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.3%	+0.2%	47%	529
1 month	+1.3%	+1.4%	48%	507
3 months	+3.0%	+1.8%	54%	502
6 months	+8.1%	+4.1%	57%	496
1 year	+15.6%	+10.0%	58%	449

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction732 calls · 42% hit

-0.6%

Low conviction144 calls · 50% hit

+2.7%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure43 calls · 47% hit

+11.0%

News Reaction9 calls · 44% hit

+0.7%

Analysis39 calls · 44% hit

-0.5%

Prediction785 calls · 43% hit

-0.7%

Long vs short

Long766 calls · 43% hit

+0.0%

Short110 calls · 49% hit

-0.9%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-06-23 CIFR

“V V bullish, but retail are deep inside so flushing by market makers is going on. They will run v well into Q3-Q4 2025.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

+90.0%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2025-09-07 RIOT

“whatever upsides come for large cap crypto miners from here , $RIOT will do the best returns. I am saying from here onward pl note.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Honest sincere advice, whatever upsides come for large cap crypto miners from here , $RIOT will do the best returns. I am saying from here onward pl note. Sure I can be v wrong always abt this biased view towards $RIOT. Hope this helps crypto bros. 😎👍

+58.2%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-09-19 CLSK

“We positioned a lot more in $CLSK at the recent most stinky bottoms in our clients group.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

We positioned a lot more in $CLSK at the recent most stinky bottoms in our clients group. This is the benefit when you are a member . We will take the right view at extreme emotions stage. 😎👍

+52.2%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-08-03 IREN

“large cap miners $RIOT $CLSK $MARA $IREN etc still do not look bottomed out yet”

Short · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$BTC Weekly charts still turning down, this needs a close watch next week crypto bros. And large cap miners $RIOT $CLSK $MARA $IREN etc still do not look bottomed out yet. DYOR bros. 😎👍

-73.4%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2024-10-22 TSLA

“The highly bearish STF chart set up in $TSLA toward USD 155 range in coming days looks like a kind of pointer”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Let me be clear here. The highly bearish STF chart set up in $TSLA toward USD 155 range in coming days looks like a kind of pointer. Lets see how it goes. 😎👍

-48.1%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2024-01-06 MARA

“$MARA structure is bullish and stock will do well into Q3 2024 periodic tree shake kind of corrections not withstanding”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$MARA structure is bullish and stock will do well into Q3 2024 periodic tree shake kind of corrections not withstanding 😎👍🏻

-36.5%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long position disclosures +2.1% vs +0.3% overall · 18 bets
1 month long position disclosures +13.3% vs +1.3% overall · 18 bets
3 months short position disclosures +12.4% vs +3.0% overall · 4 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@Guv999 · audited 23 Jun 2026

calls found1,321

independent bets507

beat the market50%

avg edge / month+1.2%

best callCIFR +90.0%

worst callIREN -73.4%

VERDICT: MARGINAL

SCORE 4/10

Watch out for

their long position disclosures · +13.3% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @Guv999's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.