XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @CROWNEDlmw · 20 Jun 2026

out of 10

@CROWNEDlmw · 28 verified calls backtested

Avoid

@CROWNEDlmw's calls have trailed their sector by 1.1% per month, winning 48% of the time.

-1.1%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.2%

1 day

-1.0%

1 month

-5.0%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

48%

Calls that beat the market

based on 25 deduplicated bets

48% beat their sector 52% didn't

Even their cleanest calls trailed the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 25 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Indistinguishable from luck

Across 25 bets, @CROWNEDlmw's average call trailed its sector by 1.1% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = -0.7, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = -0.7 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 25 bets count as 25 effective ones. That's why the honest t is -0.7, not the raw -0.7. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.2%	+0.7%	72%	25
1 month	-1.0%	+0.2%	44%	25
3 months	-5.0%	-1.0%	38%	21
6 months	-7.4%	-2.2%	32%	19

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction6 calls · 33% hit

-8.5%

1 conviction17 calls · 41% hit

-0.2%

2 conviction5 calls · 40% hit

-2.1%

Return by post type

Prediction28 calls · 39% hit

-2.3%

Long vs short

Short3 calls · 33% hit

-0.4%

Long25 calls · 40% hit

-2.6%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-09-02 ONTO

“Hunt: Targeting Undervalued Growth Stocks Sales Growth QoQ/TTM/3Y/5Y >0% Net Profit Margin >0% YTD Performance <0% Top Finds: $ZM, $DOCU, $GDYN, $ONTO”

Long · 1 conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Hunt: Targeting Undervalued Growth Stocks Sales Growth QoQ/TTM/3Y/5Y >0% Net Profit Margin >0% YTD Performance <0% Top Finds: $ZM, $DOCU, $GDYN, $ONTO What’s your top pick? 🧵 --- $ZM - Zoom Communications Market Cap 24.37B Enterprise Value 16.64B Cash ~8B No Debt How is this trading just off all time low? https://t.co/ms6RrQuN38 --- $ZM highest price in over 3 years. Up $20+ since this post

+15.6%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-04-29 TSLA

“$TSLA looking like this has potential for 20%+ run over next 3-6 weeks. Basically a repeat of last year this time. --- $TSLA ripping off the low. Nice way to ki”

Long · 2 conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$TSLA looking like this has potential for 20%+ run over next 3-6 weeks. Basically a repeat of last year this time. --- $TSLA ripping off the low. Nice way to kick this off. --- $TSLA 100k+ volume on 380c for tomorrow. Get through that and this move looks legit. In hindsight this may look like the most obvious .618 fib pullback https://t.co/QpnX7gEdfK

+13.4%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-10-16 LULU

“Gem: taking a position in $LULU calls today for end of November. Expecting a run up into December earnings and likely a long term bottom. Sized to go to 0 or 10”

Long · 2 conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Gem: taking a position in $LULU calls today for end of November. Expecting a run up into December earnings and likely a long term bottom. Sized to go to 0 or 100%+ --- $LULU up $20+ off the low in 4 trading days. $195 by end of week if it flies through this gap.

+4.3%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-09-02 GDYN

“Hunt: Targeting Undervalued Growth Stocks Sales Growth QoQ/TTM/3Y/5Y >0% Net Profit Margin >0% YTD Performance <0% Top Finds: $ZM, $DOCU, $GDYN, $ONTO”

Long · 1 conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Hunt: Targeting Undervalued Growth Stocks Sales Growth QoQ/TTM/3Y/5Y >0% Net Profit Margin >0% YTD Performance <0% Top Finds: $ZM, $DOCU, $GDYN, $ONTO What’s your top pick? 🧵 --- $ZM - Zoom Communications Market Cap 24.37B Enterprise Value 16.64B Cash ~8B No Debt How is this trading just off all time low? https://t.co/ms6RrQuN38 --- $ZM highest price in over 3 years. Up $20+ since this post

-12.1%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2026-05-05 NVDA

“$NVDA look like it’s about to cook the shorts --- $NVDA monster move 🧑‍🍳 🥘”

Long · 1 conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$NVDA look like it’s about to cook the shorts --- $NVDA monster move 🧑‍🍳 🥘

-8.7%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-03-06 AAPL

“$SPY $QQQ looking for low of day today within first 15 minutes. If so $AAPL looks good to run today and probably into Monday. --- $SPY $QQQ ignore the headline.”

Long · 1 conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$SPY $QQQ looking for low of day today within first 15 minutes. If so $AAPL looks good to run today and probably into Monday. --- $SPY $QQQ ignore the headline. We’re at major support. Price may go lower but to rule out a move higher with price where it is would not be wise

-1.8%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long predictions +0.3% vs +0.2% overall · 22 bets
1 month short predictions +0.2% vs -1.0% overall · 3 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@CROWNEDlmw · audited 20 Jun 2026

calls found28

independent bets25

beat the market48%

avg edge / month-1.1%

best callONTO +15.6%

worst callGDYN -12.1%

VERDICT: AVOID

SCORE 1/10

Watch out for

their short predictions · +0.2% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @CROWNEDlmw's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.