XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @TheProfInvestor · 12 Jun 2026

out of 10

@TheProfInvestor · 1986 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@TheProfInvestor's calls have trailed their sector by 0.1% per month, winning 45% of the time.

-0.1%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

-0.4%

1 day

-0.1%

1 month

+3.0%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

45%

Calls that beat the market

based on 1063 deduplicated bets

45% beat their sector 55% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 1063 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Indistinguishable from luck

Across 1063 bets, @TheProfInvestor's average call trailed its sector by 0.1% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = -0.2, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = -0.2 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 1063 bets count as 621 effective ones. That's why the honest t is -0.2, not the raw -0.2. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	-0.4%	-0.4%	43%	1148
1 month	-0.1%	+0.0%	46%	1062
3 months	+3.0%	+3.0%	44%	961
6 months	+3.5%	+3.9%	42%	715
1 year	+7.5%	+8.6%	47%	268

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction1360 calls · 44% hit

-0.1%

Low conviction348 calls · 46% hit

-1.3%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure212 calls · 60% hit

+5.5%

Prediction1394 calls · 42% hit

-1.1%

Analysis78 calls · 49% hit

-1.1%

News Reaction23 calls · 39% hit

-5.4%

Long vs short

Long1645 calls · 45% hit

-0.2%

Short63 calls · 30% hit

-2.6%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-01-30 AAOI

“A Base breakout which will get chased. Yes this is a Very bullish chart. And it can get up there”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$AAOI A Base breakout which will get chased. Yes this is a Very bullish chart. And it can get up there https://t.co/kZoUkKp0gs

+135.9%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-04-04 INTC

“Stock that refuses to come down. Every dip to 40 is being bought by a Whale. Started another breakout”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Stocks standing out every week that people should follow: $LITE : Breaks to new highs this week. $1000 very close now $TER : Paused over last few months but coiling. Breakout here would take it to 400. $INTC : Stock that refuses to come down. Every dip to 40 is being bought by a Whale. Started another breakout $COHR : Another failed breakdown last week, previous one took stock price 70% higher. So far this one is +20%, a breakout of this bull flag takes it to 300-320 --- $PL : Breakout after filling Mar 20th gap. Pushes to highs $AEHR : Shared it with team in 20s, stock is going to make new highs this week. Target 50+. And most likely sees new all time highs next https://t.co/zUBv9IEjzB

+81.0%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-09-16 QBTS

“Big move hasnt even started yet. In my Opinion.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$QBTS Aug 30: $15.62 || Sept 16: $19.18 Our first target met 🎯 I find gems. I analyze them. I pick the best ones. I share them with you Big move hasnt even started yet. In my Opinion. https://t.co/JcfOq43Xwh

+74.5%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-10-15 RGTI

“It will be up 10 times more tomorrow.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Dont celebrate the tiny red on $RGTI It will be up 10 times more tomorrow.

-56.1%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2025-10-16 SMR

“No such thing as overbought here. Monthly candle says- MORE”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

No such thing as overbought here. Monthly candle says- MORE $SMR https://t.co/vX9HXtJUj5

-53.1%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2025-12-29 SI=F

“This is falling in the category of Parabolic Short”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Silver futures down 7% off the highs. This is falling in the category of Parabolic Short. Dont forget: Daily RSI: 82 Weekly RSI: 90.8 Monthly RSI: 90.3 You get the message. https://t.co/3tSNSG5rzQ

-52.8%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short position disclosures +8.3% vs -0.4% overall · 4 bets
1 month short position disclosures +14.0% vs -0.1% overall · 4 bets
3 months short position disclosures +14.1% vs +3.0% overall · 4 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@TheProfInvestor · audited 12 Jun 2026

calls found1,986

independent bets1,063

beat the market45%

avg edge / month-0.1%

best callAAOI +135.9%

worst callRGTI -56.1%

VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE

SCORE 1/10

Watch out for

their short position disclosures · +14.0% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @TheProfInvestor's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.