XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @ChairmansLedger · 23 Jun 2026

out of 10

@ChairmansLedger · 178 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@ChairmansLedger's calls have trailed their sector by 4.2% per month, winning 32% of the time.

-4.2%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

-0.9%

1 day

-4.2%

1 month

+0.0%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

32%

Calls that beat the market

based on 19 deduplicated bets

32% beat their sector 68% didn't

Too few price-backed calls to draw a conclusion yet.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 19 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Indistinguishable from luck

Across 19 bets, @ChairmansLedger's average call trailed its sector by 4.2% — t = -0.8, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = -0.8 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 19 bets count as 16 effective ones. That's why the honest t is -0.8, not the raw -0.9. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	-0.9%	-1.0%	34%	47
1 month	-4.2%	-2.7%	32%	19
3 months	+0.0%	+0.0%	50%	2
6 months	+0.0%	+0.0%	50%	2

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction55 calls · 44% hit

-1.7%

Low conviction6 calls · 17% hit

-10.1%

Return by post type

Prediction13 calls · 54% hit

+3.1%

Position Disclosure17 calls · 41% hit

-0.4%

Analysis30 calls · 33% hit

-6.2%

Long vs short

Long61 calls · 41% hit

-2.5%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-05-12 ASTS

“I own $ASTS. Resilient connectivity is going to matter a lot more than the market thinks.”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@stoutiam @thekookreport @spacanpanman @CatSE___ApeX___ @Defiantclient2 Good list. I own $ASTS. Resilient connectivity is going to matter a lot more than the market thinks.

+21.4%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-05-16 IREN

“For me, $IREN, not because $NBIS is bad, but because the forward asymmetry looks more interesting from here”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@MathiasTheus @longinvest32 For me, $IREN, not because $NBIS is bad, but because the forward asymmetry looks more interesting from here.

+12.2%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2026-05-12 ONDS

“That is why I have sized $ONDS and $KRKNF accordingly”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Most people either forget, or never knew, how thin the line is between order and chaos. War was waiting for man before man had a name for it. Airspace. Ports. Cables. Pipelines. Borders. Cities. Data. Power. The layers we depend on most are the layers our enemies will target first. That is why I have sized $ONDS and $KRKNF accordingly.

+11.6%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2026-05-17 RKLB

“I rode $RKLB from the 40s. Amazing company and I think the thesis keeps getting stronger.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@RoInOrbit I rode $RKLB from the 40s. Amazing company and I think the thesis keeps getting stronger. $ONDS still looks materially undervalued to me. $ASTS is different. That one has generational company potential if they execute.

-25.6%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2026-05-22 DGXX

“this means we're going up $DGXX”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

TL;DR this means we’re going up $DGXX --- Easy. @mkfilko

-16.6%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-05-14 ONDS

“if you're celebrating $ONDS with an 11 handle, you're not thinking big enough”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

PSA: if you’re celebrating $ONDS with an 11 handle, you’re not thinking big enough.

-15.9%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 month long predictions +14.7% vs -4.2% overall · 4 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@ChairmansLedger · audited 23 Jun 2026

calls found178

independent bets19

beat the market32%

avg edge / month-4.2%

best callASTS +21.4%

worst callRKLB -25.6%

VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE

SCORE 1/10

Watch out for

their long predictions · +14.7% after 1 month

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How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @ChairmansLedger's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.