@NoLimitGains · 137 verified calls backtested

Marginal

@NoLimitGains's all calls with sector data have beaten their sector by 3.6% on average in the month after each call, winning 56% of the time.

+0.0%
1 day
+3.6%
1 month
+11.9%
3 months
Avg. market-beating return
per call · vs the stock's own sector
56%
Calls that beat the market
based on 27 all calls with sector data
56% beat their sector 44% didn't

A slight edge — promising, but not decisive.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day +1.8% +1.3% 51% 75
1 month +3.6% +0.6% 56% 27
3 months +11.9% -0.7% 56% 16
6 months +6.7% -2.1% 50% 16

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction18 calls · 50% hit
+4.0%
Low conviction9 calls · 67% hit
+2.7%

Return by post type

Prediction16 calls · 50% hit
+5.4%
Analysis7 calls · 71% hit
+3.7%
Position Disclosure3 calls · 33% hit
-7.2%

Long vs short

Long14 calls · 64% hit
+3.7%
Short13 calls · 46% hit
+3.4%

Best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

silver
“silver leads”
Long · high conviction · 2025-11-27 · View on X ↗
Full post
🚨 HEAR ME OUT NOW!!!! A Major Financial Shock Is Lining Up for 2026 and the Warning Signs Are Already Here. Something big is coming for 2026. And no, it’s not another banking meltdown or a typical recession cycle. This time, the pressure is sitting right at the core of the global system: sovereign bonds. The first red flag? The MOVE index. Bond volatility is waking up. Right now, three silent fault lines around the world are straining at the same time: 1️⃣ U.S. Treasury funding 2️⃣ Japan’s yen and carry-trade system 3️⃣ China’s overleveraged credit machine Any one of these snapping would be enough to shake the world. All three converging in 2026? Everything falls apart. Let’s start with the one building the fastest: a U.S. Treasury funding shock. In 2026, the U.S. has to issue record levels of debt. At the same time, deficits are ballooning, interest costs are climbing, foreign demand is fading, dealers are stretched thin, and auctions are showing stress. In other words: the perfect recipe for a failed or severely strained long-end Treasury auction. And this isn’t speculation. It’s already visible in the data: weaker auctions, bigger tails, fading indirect bids, rising volatility at the long end. If this feels familiar, it should. This is exactly how the UK’s gilt crisis kicked off in 2022. Only now, the scale is global. Why does this matter so much? Because everything takes its cue from Treasuries: mortgages, corporate credit, global FX, emerging-market borrowing
+45.1%
BZ=F
“Brent crude oil tops $90 for the first time in 2 years… You know where this is going…”
Long · low conviction · 2026-03-06 · View on X ↗
Full post
🚨 Brent crude oil tops $90 for the first time in 2 years. Trump: “There will be no deal with Iran.” You know where this is going… https://t.co/xku99vSLdV
+20.2%
Strategy
“The loop that turned a $250M bet into a $56B empire? It's spinning in reverse. $8.2B in debt. $7.8B in preferred shares. $16B in obligations”
Short · high conviction · 2025-12-02 · View on X ↗
Full post
🚨 THIS IS INSANE!!! I can’t believe I’m even typing this, but here we are. The biggest corporate Bitcoin holder on the planet is officially worth less than the Bitcoin it owns. Read that again. Let it sink in. They’ve got 650,000 BTC on the books, or roughly $55.9B at today’s price. Their entire market cap? $45.7B. Wall Street is basically saying: “Yeah, your Bitcoin stack is cool, but your company? That’s a $10B liability.” This isn’t some glitch. This isn’t a one-day anomaly. This is the first real, sustained inversion since they started this crazy Bitcoin-hoarding experiment. The same machine that accumulated 3.1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist is now being valued like the Bitcoin doesn’t even matter. And here’s the part most people don’t know about: They just scrambled to build a $1.44B cash reserve so they can keep paying dividends. For the first time in half a decade, the CEO hinted, very carefully, that selling Bitcoin is on the table “if absolutely necessary.” The stock has fallen 57% since October 6. The premium they lived on is completely gone. The loop that turned a $250M bet into a $56B empire? It’s spinning in reverse. And things get uglier. In just 44 days, MSCI decides whether to kick them out of global indexes. JPMorgan says that would trigger $8.8B of forced selling. You don’t need a PhD to know what that would do to the price. Let’s talk numbers: $8.2B in debt. $7.8B in preferred shares. $16B in obligations… backed by a company the mark
+16.6%

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

NTR
“fertilizer prices are moving (we already hold NTR)”
Long · low conviction · 2026-03-20 · View on X ↗
Full post
🚨 Added CORN to my portfolio Everyone’s talking about oil. Nobody’s talking about food. Higher fuel costs hit farming and fertilizer prices are moving (we already hold NTR). Grain exports are getting disrupted. Corn goes into feed, fuel and food production. Remember what happened in 2022 during the Russia/Ukraine conflict? The options flow on CORN has been extremely aggressive. Big money buying calls at the 25 strike expiring August 2026. A third of US corn production goes into ethanol. Ethanol is blended into every gallon of gas you pump. Regular gas is already 10% ethanol. When oil gets expensive, demand for ethanol goes up. Corn follows. Gas is up 27% since Feb 28. Farm groups are now pushing Congress to approve year-round E15 sales, 15% ethanol blended fuel instead of 10%. Anyway, I like the setup here. Not a call. Just sharing my positioning.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ For those who don’t already know, I share all my moves here publicly. The market moves fast so my posts are very time-sensitive. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything, this is important.
-15.7%
oil
“Oil prices are surging as US-Iran talks stall... Iran has nowhere to send its oil and nowhere to store it. Every day the blockade holds, the”
Long · high conviction · 2026-04-28 · View on X ↗
Full post
JUST NOW: Iran is running out of places to store its oil, with only 12 to 22 days of storage capacity left. The Hormuz blockade is now an economic chokehold. Key details: 1: Iran’s oil storage is nearing a breaking point, with only 12 to 22 days of remaining capacity before tanks are completely full and exports grind to a halt 2: A Japanese tanker, Idemitsu Maru, is actively attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, testing the blockade in real time per shipping data 3: Ukraine has again struck Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery, a second front on global energy supply opening simultaneously 4: Oil prices are surging as US-Iran talks stall, Trump is reportedly unhappy with Iran’s offer on Hormuz, per multiple reports 5: Trump is expected to address Iran’s nuclear proposal shortly as oil prices continue to climb, a presidential statement could come at any moment Iran has nowhere to send its oil and nowhere to store it. Every day the blockade holds, the pressure multiplies. I’ll keep you updated, turn on notifications this is very important. A lot of people will wish they followed me sooner.
-11.6%
MSFT
“The Micro Cap is starting to look nice”
Long · low conviction · 2026-04-14 · View on X ↗
-3.8%

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Explore the Analysis →
How we measured this · download the raw data

We pulled @NoLimitGains's post history, used AI to extract each investment call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtested every call against real price history. “Beating the market” means out-performing the stock's own sector over the month after the post — so a call only counts as a win if it beat a fair benchmark, not just if the stock rose. The headline numbers use the cleanest signal: all calls with sector data.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.