XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @NoLimitGains · 1 Jun 2026

out of 10

@NoLimitGains · 131 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@NoLimitGains's calls have beaten their sector by 5.8% per month, winning 75% of the time.

+5.8%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+2.2%

1 day

+5.8%

1 month

+18.7%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

75%

Calls that beat the market

based on 16 deduplicated bets

75% beat their sector 25% didn't

Too few price-backed calls to draw a conclusion yet.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 16 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Unlikely to be luck

Across 16 bets, @NoLimitGains's average call beat its sector by 5.8% — t = 2.1, unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 2.1 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 16 bets count as 16 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 2.1, not the raw 1.6. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+2.2%	+1.6%	54%	61
1 month	+5.8%	-0.1%	75%	16
3 months	+18.7%	-4.6%	78%	9
6 months	+10.1%	-9.3%	67%	9

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction19 calls · 53% hit

+3.7%

Low conviction5 calls · 80% hit

+5.1%

Return by post type

Prediction14 calls · 57% hit

+6.2%

Analysis6 calls · 67% hit

+4.2%

Position Disclosure3 calls · 33% hit

-7.2%

Long vs short

Short10 calls · 50% hit

+4.5%

Long14 calls · 64% hit

+3.7%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-11-15 MSTR

“Michael Saylor's Strategy will collapse next year”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Michael Saylor’s Strategy will collapse next year, and it will mark the bottom of the bear market. Save this tweet.

+16.3%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-03-24 MSFT

“Bought some Microsoft because it turned into a Micro Cap I'll hold for 2-3 years”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Bought some Microsoft because it turned into a Micro Cap I’ll hold for 2-3 years

+7.3%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit C · 2026-03-20 NTR

“fertilizer prices are moving (we already hold NTR)”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

🚨 Added CORN to my portfolio Everyone’s talking about oil. Nobody’s talking about food. Higher fuel costs hit farming and fertilizer prices are moving (we already hold NTR). Grain exports are getting disrupted. Corn goes into feed, fuel and food production. Remember what happened in 2022 during the Russia/Ukraine conflict? The options flow on CORN has been extremely aggressive. Big money buying calls at the 25 strike expiring August 2026. A third of US corn production goes into ethanol. Ethanol is blended into every gallon of gas you pump. Regular gas is already 10% ethanol. When oil gets expensive, demand for ethanol goes up. Corn follows. Gas is up 27% since Feb 28. Farm groups are now pushing Congress to approve year-round E15 sales, 15% ethanol blended fuel instead of 10%. Anyway, I like the setup here. Not a call. Just sharing my positioning. For those who don’t already know, I share all my moves here publicly. The market moves fast so my posts are very time-sensitive. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything, this is important.

-15.7%vs sector

Exhibit D · 2025-11-29 gold

“I expect gold to drop 20-25% minimum before going to $6500, so i'm taking advantage of this opportunity”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@Unity_Nutrition I expect gold to drop 20-25% minimum before going to $6500, so i’m taking advantage of this opportunity. There’s a difference between trading an asset and holding it long term (1+ year).

-1.1%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long analysis posts +4.2% vs +2.2% overall · 30 bets
1 month long predictions +11.5% vs +5.8% overall · 6 bets
3 months short predictions +13.5% vs +18.7% overall · 3 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@NoLimitGains · audited 1 Jun 2026

calls found131

independent bets16

beat the market75%

avg edge / month+5.8%

best callMSTR +16.3%

worst callNTR -15.7%

VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE

SCORE 9/10

Watch out for

their long predictions · +11.5% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @NoLimitGains's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.