XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @Kaizen_Investor · 1 Jul 2026

@Kaizen_Investor · 886 verified calls backtested

@Kaizen_Investor's calls have beaten their sector by 3.8% per month, winning 50% of the time.

+3.8%
Avg. return vs its sector
per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)
-0.2%
1 day
+4.4%
1 month
+9.2%
3 months
the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months
50%
Calls that beat the market
based on 408 deduplicated bets
50% beat their sector 50% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means
Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 408 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.
Very unlikely to be luck

Across 408 bets, @Kaizen_Investor's average call beat its sector by 3.8% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 3.3, very unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 3.3 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 408 bets count as 299 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 3.3, not the raw 3.9. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day -0.2% -0.1% 46% 432
1 month +4.4% +5.6% 52% 406
3 months +9.2% +12.0% 49% 353
6 months +7.8% +12.4% 43% 163

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction655 calls · 50% hit
+5.5%
Low conviction177 calls · 54% hit
+3.4%

Return by post type

Analysis330 calls · 56% hit
+6.4%
Prediction302 calls · 48% hit
+4.9%
Position Disclosure140 calls · 47% hit
+4.0%
News Reaction60 calls · 42% hit
+1.1%

Long vs short

Short13 calls · 77% hit
+5.3%
Long819 calls · 50% hit
+5.1%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-04-14 POET
“I'm not worried at all by this report.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
$POET down 7.5% after the short position of Wolfpack Research. As I explained in the previous post, Q3 earnings of Poet will be very important. This is in 5 months. Institutions like Wofpack close 90% of their short trades within these 5 months. Most of them even within weeks. Short-seller reports are designed to create market fear and capitalize on downward momentum. I’m not worried at all by this report.
+87.5%vs sector
Exhibit B · 2026-04-20 Filtronic PLC
“I initiated a new position in Filtronic PLC, $FTC last Friday. It's unbelievable how this company has stayed under the radar for this long.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
I initiated a new position in Filtronic PLC, $FTC last Friday. It's unbelievable how this company has stayed under the radar for this long. At a ~$600M market cap, this company is a critical chokepoint for SpaceX's Starlink constellation. Their technology currently gives SpaceX a massive competitive edge over $AMZN rival LEO project, Project Kuiper. Filtronic effectively holds a commercial monopoly at the intersection of High-Power + E-Band + Gallium Nitride (GaN) + Solid State Power Amplifiers (SSPAs). These components are mandatory for beaming massive amounts of data to space and back without melting the hardware. Alternatives like congested Ka-band or older GaAs technology simply can't compete with their power and efficiency. While the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for E-band ground gateways is niche, Filtronic's IP is next-level. SpaceX knows this. They’ve signed a warrant agreement granting them up to 15% of Filtronic's shares. In return, SpaceX is essentially funding Filtronic's R&D to develop next-gen V-band GaN SSPAs. If they succeed with the V-band, the TAM explodes from thousands of ground stations to tens of millions of consumer and enterprise user terminals. So, you basically have a $600M market cap company acting as a massive bottleneck for Starlink. By placing huge orders and occupying Filtronic’s production lines, SpaceX is actively securing their own supply and effectively boxing out competitors like $AMZN. You get a profitable, zero-debt company wh…
+86.6%vs sector
Exhibit C · 2025-11-24 PL
“$PL is still one of the best opportunities in the market”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
$PL is still one of the best opportunities in the market. Only $PL combines a daily, global monitoring scan with high-resolution tasking and a deep historical archive. It creates a fundamentally different and more valuable data asset than $BKSY or $SATL. https://t.co/93H2fFI1wK
+74.6%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2026-01-22 HIMS
“I'll keep buying at these levels”
Long · low conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
@moninvestor It’s not because the stock price is falling that $HIMS is a bad company. I’ll keep buying at these levels.
-48.9%vs sector
Exhibit E · 2026-05-14 WOLF
“Almost doubled my position now.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
$WOLF keeps pumping on the Citrini report. Citrini noted that Wolfspeed aggressively overextended itself by building massive production capacity for EV/industrial demand that never materialized, which ultimately forced the company into Chapter 11 bankruptcy. However, having successfully wiped out $4.6 billion in debt during their restructuring (completed in September 2025), Citrini described their current position on the other side of that pain as "perfect." A core part of Citrini's thesis is that Wolfspeed shouldn't just be valued based on the theoretical replacement cost of its fabrication facilities. Because constructing new chip manufacturing capacity right now faces massive geopolitical and logistical obstacles, Citrini argued the valuation should reflect "the fact that it's not going to be replaced." Citrini views Wolfspeed's silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors as critical plumbing for the AI boom. While they don't make the headline-grabbing processors or memory chips, they make the highly efficient components that manage and govern the massive electrical currents flowing through AI data centers. Almost doubled my position now.
-45.5%vs sector
Exhibit F · 2025-11-03 IREN
“The $IREN pivot is complete. A $9.7B, 5-yr contract proves their energy & infrastructure expertise is now a core asset for hyperscalers”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
The $IREN pivot is complete. A $9.7B, 5-yr contract proves their energy & infrastructure expertise is now a core asset for hyperscalers like $MSFT. This isn't just $IREN winning; it's $MSFT validating them as a key partner needed to help solve the massive AI compute bottleneck. https://t.co/VSDb0BRuAy
-40.6%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

  • 1 day short analysis posts +3.2% vs -0.2% overall · 6 bets
  • 1 month short analysis posts +5.5% vs +4.4% overall · 6 bets
  • 3 months long analysis posts +16.5% vs +9.2% overall · 167 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →
THE RECEIPTS
@Kaizen_Investor · audited 1 Jul 2026

calls found886
independent bets408
beat the market50%
avg edge / month+3.8%
best callPOET +87.5%
worst callHIMS -48.9%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING
SCORE 8/10

Watch out for
their short analysis posts · +5.5% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone
Share the receipts on X ↗ Download all calls (CSV) ↓

Help shape XAnalytics

Was this report useful?

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @Kaizen_Investor's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.