XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @thelonginvest · 28 Jun 2026

out of 10

@thelonginvest · 2410 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@thelonginvest's calls have trailed their sector by 0.3% per month, winning 43% of the time.

-0.3%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

-0.1%

1 day

-0.2%

1 month

-1.8%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

43%

Calls that beat the market

based on 901 deduplicated bets

43% beat their sector 57% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 901 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Indistinguishable from luck

Across 901 bets, @thelonginvest's average call trailed its sector by 0.3% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = -0.5, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = -0.5 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 901 bets count as 709 effective ones. That's why the honest t is -0.5, not the raw -0.6. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	-0.1%	-0.1%	43%	972
1 month	-0.2%	-0.5%	44%	901
3 months	-1.8%	-2.0%	40%	757
6 months	-4.5%	-3.7%	37%	559

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction1876 calls · 42% hit

-0.8%

Low conviction255 calls · 45% hit

-0.6%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure166 calls · 51% hit

+2.1%

Prediction1609 calls · 41% hit

-1.0%

Analysis281 calls · 42% hit

-1.2%

News Reaction73 calls · 38% hit

-1.2%

Long vs short

Short136 calls · 46% hit

+0.5%

Long1995 calls · 42% hit

-0.9%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-09-16 ASTS

“$ASTS the job is not done until $77”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$ASTS the job is not done until $77 A retest of the blue support line at $39 was needed....but could be providing a great opportunity once it holds. https://t.co/lrKGxjHFsO

+135.6%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-03-29 OSCR

“$OSCR to $40”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

I’m holding $ETH to $9000 $HIMS to $137 $ASTS to $150 $OSCR to $40 $UNH to $600 $NVO to $200 $ZETA to $45 $JD to $108 $BIDU to $355 $BABA to $330 Everything here has at least +100% upside in their current cycle Which is why I’m happy to hold their position through 2026 until targets are met I don’t make the rules Their targets are a product of their fundamentals and technicals

+66.3%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2026-02-17 HIMS

“We added because we take advantage of market manipulators”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

So Citi increased their position in $HIMS by 51% after telling the market to sell it. You’ve been played Well done Citi. We added because we take advantage of market manipulators

+56.4%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-12-15 IREN

“$30-$31 next.”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$IREN Two ears, one mouth. $30-$31 next.

-50.4%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2026-01-07 ETH-USD

“you got an opportunity to buy $BTC and $ETH at a price on sale and it put those positions out of sync with the market”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

I don’t think people really understand what happened to crypto on the 10th of October But you can work it out in your own time But you got an opportunity to buy $BTC and $ETH at a price on sale and it put those positions out of sync with the market What you don’t realise either is that this is a VERY bullish signal for 2026 for crypto

-42.6%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-05-14 SLNH

“Still another +30% gain to our Wave 3 target And a +70% gain to our Wave 5 target.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$SLNH +56% gain since I shared this with you 10 Days ago Still another +30% gain to our Wave 3 target And a +70% gain to our Wave 5 target.

-35.5%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long position disclosures +0.3% vs -0.1% overall · 57 bets
1 month short analysis posts +1.3% vs -0.2% overall · 20 bets
3 months short analysis posts +7.0% vs -1.8% overall · 13 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@thelonginvest · audited 28 Jun 2026

calls found2,410

independent bets901

beat the market43%

avg edge / month-0.3%

best callASTS +135.6%

worst callIREN -50.4%

VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE

SCORE 1/10

Watch out for

their short analysis posts · +1.3% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @thelonginvest's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.