XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @CathieDWood · 31 May 2026

out of 10

@CathieDWood · 533 verified calls backtested

Worth Following

@CathieDWood's calls have beaten their sector by 2.7% per month, winning 53% of the time.

+2.7%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.3%

1 day

+2.7%

1 month

+4.4%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

53%

Calls that beat the market

based on 306 deduplicated bets

53% beat their sector 47% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 306 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Unlikely to be luck

Across 306 bets, @CathieDWood's average call beat its sector by 2.7% — t = 2.9, unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 2.9 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 306 bets count as 241 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 2.9, not the raw 3.2. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.3%	+0.2%	49%	307
1 month	+2.7%	+4.0%	53%	306
3 months	+4.4%	+7.6%	56%	304
6 months	+9.9%	+20.0%	55%	299

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction165 calls · 47% hit

+2.0%

Low conviction226 calls · 53% hit

+2.7%

Return by post type

Analysis185 calls · 51% hit

+3.5%

Prediction171 calls · 50% hit

+1.6%

News Reaction31 calls · 55% hit

+1.3%

Long vs short

Long355 calls · 51% hit

+2.7%

Short36 calls · 47% hit

-1.1%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-09-12 NTLA

“Many analysts seem to think that one-time cures will not be a good business, @ARK Invest begs to differ! $CRSP, $NTLA, $BEAM, $PRME”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Thank you, @Shea_ARK, for surfacing the potential value of one of the most important biology breakthroughs of our time: CRISPR gene editing. Many analysts seem to think that one-time cures will not be a good business, @ARK Invest begs to differ! $CRSP, $NTLA, $BEAM, $PRME

+104.8%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2020-01-03 TSLA

“Attempting to explain how misunderstood $TSLA has been and how disruptive it will be, I have compared it to $AMZN. If our analysis - based on Wright's Law - is…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Attempting to explain how misunderstood $TSLA has been and how disruptive it will be, I have compared it to $AMZN. If our analysis - based on Wright’s Law - is correct, #Tesla will have more of an impact on global transportation than #Amazon has had & will have on global retail.

+75.8%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2017-08-08 GBTC

“$GBTC is the only way to play #bitcoin in an #IRA, #ETF, or any other financially regulated portfolio”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Yes...$GBTC is the only way to play #bitcoin in an #IRA, #ETF, or any other financially regulated portfolio. https://t.co/lytlZFeBTa

+57.1%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2018-08-07 TSLA

“perhaps public markets do not deserve $TSLA, one of the world's most important #Mobility-as-a-Service plays”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

.@elonmusk Given their short-term focus, perhaps public markets do not deserve $TSLA, one of the world's most important #Mobility-as-a-Service plays, $AMZN suffered slings and arrows in order to democratize access to its stock. Now that you do not need cash, you can do the same!

-28.5%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2019-05-14 LYFT

“autonomy will destroy their business models”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$Uber’s and $LYFT’s disappointing debut seems to be impacting “innovation” stocks more broadly. Two problems nullify that relationship: --- First, $UBER and $LYFT no longer are innovators, as #autonomy will destroy their business models. --- Second, given the serious overvaluation in private relative to public equities, many more $IPOs will fail. We see many like for like companies valued in the private markets at 2-15 times those in the public markets as measured on price-to-sales. --- Moreover, the games played with valuation in the later rounds of financing understate the true valuations being paid in the venture world. --- I have been as surprised to learn about these games in the private equity world as I was to learn about CDOs squared in mortgage bonds circa 2006-07.

-13.9%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2022-07-07 ROKU

“Roku should be a prime beneficiary of the $150+ billion shift in global advertising from linear to digital TV”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

According to Nick’s original research (with support from @andrewkimARK), Roku should be a prime beneficiary of the $150+ billion shift in global advertising from linear to digital TV. A big idea, and another @ARKInvest open-source model!

-12.2%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short news-reaction posts +0.8% vs +0.3% overall · 3 bets
1 month long analysis posts +4.3% vs +2.7% overall · 141 bets
3 months short news-reaction posts +11.1% vs +4.4% overall · 3 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@CathieDWood · audited 31 May 2026

calls found533

independent bets306

beat the market53%

avg edge / month+2.7%

best callNTLA +104.8%

worst callTSLA -28.5%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING

SCORE 7/10

Watch out for

their long analysis posts · +4.3% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @CathieDWood's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.