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@CathieDWood · 581 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@CathieDWood's high-conviction long calls have beaten their sector by 4.5% on average in the month after each call, winning 49% of the time.

+0.1%
1 day
+4.5%
1 month
+7.2%
3 months
Avg. market-beating return
per call · vs the stock's own sector
49%
Calls that beat the market
based on 96 high-conviction long calls
49% beat their sector 51% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day +0.2% +0.2% 48% 442
1 month +2.2% +4.0% 51% 441
3 months +4.0% +8.3% 55% 439
6 months +8.9% +23.7% 53% 430

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction124 calls · 51% hit
+3.5%
Low conviction317 calls · 51% hit
+1.7%

Return by post type

Analysis215 calls · 53% hit
+3.2%
Prediction189 calls · 49% hit
+1.4%
News Reaction31 calls · 55% hit
+1.3%
Sarcasm4 calls · 50% hit
-2.8%

Long vs short

Long355 calls · 51% hit
+2.7%
Short86 calls · 52% hit
+0.0%

Best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

NTLA
“Many analysts seem to think that one-time cures will not be a good business, @ARK Invest begs to differ! $CRSP, $NTLA, $BEAM, $PRME”
Long · low conviction · 2025-09-12 · View on X ↗
Full post
Thank you, @Shea_ARK, for surfacing the potential value of one of the most important biology breakthroughs of our time: CRISPR gene editing. Many analysts seem to think that one-time cures will not be a good business, @ARK Invest begs to differ! $CRSP, $NTLA, $BEAM, $PRME
+104.8%
TSLA
“Attempting to explain how misunderstood $TSLA has been and how disruptive it will be, I have compared it to $AMZN. If our analysis - based o”
Long · high conviction · 2020-01-03 · View on X ↗
Full post
Attempting to explain how misunderstood $TSLA has been and how disruptive it will be, I have compared it to $AMZN. If our analysis - based on Wright’s Law - is correct, #Tesla will have more of an impact on global transportation than #Amazon has had & will have on global retail.
+75.8%
GBTC
“$GBTC is the only way to play #bitcoin in an #IRA, #ETF, or any other financially regulated portfolio”
Long · low conviction · 2017-08-08 · View on X ↗
Full post
Yes...$GBTC is the only way to play #bitcoin in an #IRA, #ETF, or any other financially regulated portfolio. https://t.co/lytlZFeBTa
+57.1%

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

TSLA
“perhaps public markets do not deserve $TSLA, one of the world's most important #Mobility-as-a-Service plays”
Long · high conviction · 2018-08-07 · View on X ↗
Full post
.@elonmusk Given their short-term focus, perhaps public markets do not deserve $TSLA, one of the world's most important #Mobility-as-a-Service plays, $AMZN suffered slings and arrows in order to democratize access to its stock. Now that you do not need cash, you can do the same!
-28.5%
SSYS
“$SSYS will tell a much different story.”
Long · low conviction · 2015-04-27 · View on X ↗
Full post
$SSYS will tell a much different story. https://t.co/VHHMpG87CM
-26.6%
LC
“#banks will be disrupted by $LC $ONDK ++”
Long · low conviction · 2015-06-03 · View on X ↗
Full post
#InvestmentBanking will be hit by #CrowdFunding; #banks will be disrupted by $LC $ONDK ++ #xfinance - Squeeze out inefficiencies
-26.1%

See every call for yourself — filter by conviction or direction, switch the time horizon, and chart any single trade.

Explore the Analysis →
How we measured this · download the raw data

We pulled @CathieDWood's post history, used AI to extract each investment call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtested every call against real price history. “Beating the market” means out-performing the stock's own sector over the month after the post — so a call only counts as a win if it beat a fair benchmark, not just if the stock rose. The headline numbers use the cleanest signal: high-conviction long calls.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.