XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @A_May_MD · 20 Jun 2026

out of 10

@A_May_MD · 651 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@A_May_MD's calls have beaten their sector by 0.6% per month, winning 48% of the time.

+0.6%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.6%

1 day

+0.3%

1 month

+2.5%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

48%

Calls that beat the market

based on 295 deduplicated bets

48% beat their sector 52% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 295 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Indistinguishable from luck

Across 295 bets, @A_May_MD's average call beat its sector by 0.6% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 0.5, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 0.5 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 295 bets count as 291 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 0.5, not the raw 0.5. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.6%	+0.6%	50%	306
1 month	+0.3%	-0.1%	47%	295
3 months	+2.5%	+1.3%	47%	270
6 months	+16.7%	+13.1%	54%	239
1 year	+24.1%	+17.8%	54%	170

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction476 calls · 49% hit

+6.8%

Low conviction117 calls · 48% hit

+1.2%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure67 calls · 51% hit

+9.7%

Analysis280 calls · 48% hit

+6.4%

Prediction235 calls · 50% hit

+4.5%

News Reaction6 calls · 33% hit

-5.2%

Long vs short

Long456 calls · 46% hit

+7.0%

Short137 calls · 57% hit

+1.3%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-07-22 ABVX

“IMO, the info they have disclosed says that they are *very* likely to hit stat sig when they report P3 data (likely next month) … IMO this subtle data disclosur…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

It’s funny, I tried to highlight the most important portion of the $ABVX pitch yesterday, and that slide is still somehow tied for fewest views. IMO people are really sleeping on the importance of these data… $ABVX has literally given us a vitally important piece of the phase 3 dataset AHEAD OF TIME!!! IMO, the info they have disclosed says that they are *very* likely to hit stat sig when they report P3 data (likely next month). Is there still failure risk? Absolutely - there’s no guarantees in biotech EVER. But I have to say…I’ve never seen such an impactful pre-data disclosure from a P3 trial before, and the market still doesn’t seem to appreciate how big this information is. I think it’s worth people’s time to really try to understand what’s going on in this part of the pitch. IMO this subtle data disclosure *massively* increased the probability of success for this readout.

+615.9%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2025-04-07 LXEO

“Any form of rational market values this significantly higher today than yesterday (at which point it was likely already *severely* undervalued)”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$LXEO should’ve been green today on this dataset, full stop. Any form of rational market values this significantly higher today than yesterday (at which point it was likely already *severely* undervalued). Selling is just beyond out of control in some small cap bios.

+66.4%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-10-27 NTLA

“The company as it currently exists, in my opinion, is worth less than the cash they currently hold.”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

??? Not before it went to the $5s $NTLA has run on literally nothing but the bull market for the last several weeks. This. This breaks it. This is Hy’s Law. Different and FAR worse than the last event that lacked bilirubin elevation. And this time the trial is getting put on hold. The company as it currently exists, in my opinion, is worth less than the cash they currently hold.

+50.7%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-01-30 TECX

“Tim Springer is the GOAT. … $TECX now looking like a YES.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$TECX hits. Tim Springer is the GOAT. "Wouldn’t be the first (or 2nd) time that a Tim Springer company was able to hit a target that others didn’t think they could ($SRRK $MORF ¿$TECX?)" ➡️ $TECX now looking like a YES. https://t.co/wyLs2TkvKY --- $TECX Next step: Oversubscribed offering. Question: Tim participation Y/N?

-58.8%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2025-06-06 SRPT

“This was an obvious dip buy, like I've said since the day the news crashed the market”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@NoToAI_ It’s consistent with what he has been on record saying for years actually. Numerous podcasts, publications, etc. everybody focussed on the most extreme statements re $SRPT. This was an obvious dip buy, like I’ve said since the day the news crashed the market.

-56.3%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2025-05-01 LXEO

“Upward momentum will have a snowball effect here. As it becomes more fairly priced (still not there yet) the ability to raise cash increases. It's now in a posi…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@Sanctuary_Bio Upward momentum will have a snowball effect here. As it becomes more fairly priced (still not there yet) the ability to raise cash increases. It’s now in a positive feedback loop that is the inverse of the forced selling that took it to beyond ridiculous levels to begin with!

-39.4%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short position disclosures +3.4% vs +0.6% overall · 7 bets
1 month short position disclosures +19.6% vs +0.3% overall · 7 bets
3 months long position disclosures +13.1% vs +2.5% overall · 23 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@A_May_MD · audited 20 Jun 2026

calls found651

independent bets295

beat the market48%

avg edge / month+0.6%

best callABVX +615.9%

worst callTECX -58.8%

VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE

SCORE 4/10

Watch out for

their short position disclosures · +19.6% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @A_May_MD's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.