XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @BonkDaCarnivore · 10 Jun 2026

out of 10

@BonkDaCarnivore · 244 verified calls backtested

Marginal

@BonkDaCarnivore's calls have beaten their sector by 1.8% per month, winning 49% of the time.

+1.8%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.0%

1 day

+1.7%

1 month

+6.8%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

49%

Calls that beat the market

based on 162 deduplicated bets

49% beat their sector 51% didn't

A slight edge — promising, but not decisive.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 162 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Not yet conclusive

Across 162 bets, @BonkDaCarnivore's average call beat its sector by 1.8% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 1.0, but not decisive yet.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 1.0 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 162 bets count as 93 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 1.0, not the raw 1.4. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.0%	-0.1%	55%	176
1 month	+1.7%	+2.2%	49%	162
3 months	+6.8%	+7.7%	53%	137
6 months	+2.7%	+5.3%	40%	90
1 year	+11.3%	+14.7%	54%	24

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction142 calls · 49% hit

+1.2%

Low conviction67 calls · 48% hit

+1.1%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure50 calls · 52% hit

+2.5%

Prediction87 calls · 54% hit

+1.2%

Analysis71 calls · 39% hit

-0.2%

Long vs short

Long168 calls · 49% hit

+1.2%

Short41 calls · 46% hit

+0.8%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-04-30 DELL

“the 2 biggest recipients of this spend ( $NVDA and $DELL) are down 5% and 2%, respectively … If you buy time, this is the easiest money you can make”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Some posts about this go up later today, but if you paid attention to the megacap earnings yesterday, you heard that they're all upping their AI capex spend dramatically. Stupidly so, in my opinion. Meanwhile, the 2 biggest recipients of this spend ( $NVDA and $DELL) are down 5% and 2%, respectively. $BE is down 7% If you buy time, this is the easiest money you can make (though $BE, that's a really high equity price, and I say this as someone who has been beating that drum since $9)

+81.7%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2025-10-23 BYND

“$BYND has no path to anything but insolvency”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

For those unaware, $BYND loses money on everything it sells. It's previous attempts to sell in Costco and Kroger failed. They haven't sold a single "burger" in $WMT yet. And, contrary to what the absolute morons on FinTwit claim, it wasn't a candidate for a short squeeze - the people are too dumb to realize that $BYND's debt holders HAVE to short the equity in the company in order to hedge against their debt holdings. Nobody was trying to actively short a company trading at 50 cents - there was no meat on the bone (get it?). Well, as always, a few got fabulously wealthy on this trade, but most are gonna get left holding the bag and will NEVER recover, because $BYND has no path to anything but insolvency. Congratulations to the lucky losers, I guess. Ppl ask why I keep posting here if I'm so overtly denigrating of my fellow community members in the financial space - it's because of shit like this. People who don't know the first damn thing in how to evaluate a company's fundamentals run around acting like they understand the equity markets and lure unsuspecting and financially illiterate people desperate for a quick buck into ruin. And the way the algo is written, the scammers are rewarded. For those unaware, this was exactly the type of shit that was the cause for this past Tuesday's S&S.

+67.8%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-07-23 ALAB

“I told you at some point this year it was going to catch the big bid again. Manage your risk appropriately.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Those $ALAB January 2026 200c's that I'm sure 95% of you thought were dead are well green right now. I told you at some point this year it was going to catch the big bid again. Manage your risk appropriately.

+48.3%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2026-04-27 NVDA

“ALWAYS have $NVDA exposure”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

WHAT have I been telling ALL OF YOU for YEARS? "ALWAYS have $NVDA exposure" How many times do I have to tell you, old man?

-19.7%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2025-08-13 TTD

“I plan on riding this one for a while”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Well, it doesn't get much simpler than that. $2.30. I'm taking a small amount here just to lower my cost basis, but I plan on riding this one for a while. (Full disclosure: This was not all I bought)

-18.8%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-01-23 MSFT

“$MSFT 4/17 510c. I paid just under 11, I think it's probably right around that same level right now, I can't check. I went heavy.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$MSFT 4/17 510c. I paid just under 11, I think it's probably right around that same level right now, I can't check. I went heavy.

-16.3%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short analysis posts +1.5% vs +0.0% overall · 13 bets
1 month short position disclosures +6.6% vs +1.7% overall · 4 bets
3 months short position disclosures +12.5% vs +6.8% overall · 3 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@BonkDaCarnivore · audited 10 Jun 2026

calls found244

independent bets162

beat the market49%

avg edge / month+1.8%

best callDELL +81.7%

worst callNVDA -19.7%

VERDICT: MARGINAL

SCORE 6/10

Watch out for

their short position disclosures · +6.6% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @BonkDaCarnivore's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.