@aleabitoreddit · 3363 verified calls backtested

Marginal

@aleabitoreddit's high-conviction long calls have beaten their sector by 5.1% on average in the month after each call, winning 51% of the time.

+0.6%

1 day

+5.1%

1 month

+22.1%

3 months

Avg. market-beating return

per call · vs the stock's own sector

51%

Calls that beat the market

based on 1105 high-conviction long calls

51% beat their sector 49% didn't

A slight edge — promising, but not decisive.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.6%	+0.6%	51%	3275
1 month	+5.4%	+6.2%	55%	3079
3 months	+17.8%	+19.8%	56%	2196
6 months	+14.0%	+12.1%	58%	1072

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction1168 calls · 51% hit

+4.7%

Low conviction1911 calls · 57% hit

+5.9%

Return by post type

News Reaction48 calls · 65% hit

+9.1%

Sarcasm5 calls · 80% hit

+8.1%

Prediction1049 calls · 55% hit

+6.6%

Position Disclosure358 calls · 51% hit

+5.9%

Long vs short

Long2811 calls · 54% hit

+5.8%

Short268 calls · 60% hit

+1.4%

Best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

BKKT

“Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B)”

Long · high conviction · 2025-08-31 · View on X ↗

Full post

My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations. Space - $RKLB (220B) AI - $CRWV (470B) Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B) Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B) Fintech - $DJT (49B) Social - $BMBL (6.2B) Health - $HIMS (95B) Software - $UPWK (19B) What are your picks?

+280.1%

Sivers Semiconductors

“I extremely disagree with analysts posts saying "it's priced in" and telling retail profits at $250M. After $SIVE confirmed $JBL confirmed t”

Long · high conviction · 2026-03-20 · View on X ↗

Full post

Yeah. I extremely disagree with analysts posts saying "it's priced in" and telling retail profits at $250M. -> After $SIVE confirmed $JBL confirmed they were using them for their upcoming transceivers. -> After $SIVE are in O-Net supply chains. Then saying it's "Sentiment Driven" after one of the largest T1 optical suppliers now is a confirmed Sivers buyer. Again, this is currently majority retail owned, so it's my opinion institutions are trying to acquire positions off retail hands.

+256.7%

AAOI

“I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI”

Long · low conviction · 2026-02-07 · View on X ↗

Full post

@Frenchie_ I have $CRDO on there since I felt the selloff to $95 was a huge overreaction. But I am a fan of photonic supply chains like $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $AXTI type companies

+153.9%

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

AXTI

“If it passes for 50m more share authorized dilution, I personally would not hold”

Short · low conviction · 2026-04-06 · View on X ↗

Full post

If you’re curious about $AXTI: It’s down 21% on the new potential dilution news. Board wanted to add 50M more shares (up to $2B worth to dilute) for shareholders vote in the 14th. 70m -> 120m shares. I say this about $IREN excessive $6B dilution and it’s the same with AXT price proposal that I hold. I would not “trust in management” to use it wisely and the fact it’s filed is a red flag. That being said: we’ll see what happens on the 14th. If it passes for 50m more share authorized dilution, I personally would not hold. But it fails, I expect a recovery.

-124.1%

NUAI

“I don't see how retail holders can benefit from holding shares apart from short term pumps + expanding rev by a ton (which involves dilution”

Short · high conviction · 2025-09-27 · View on X ↗

Full post

I looked into $NUAI earlier, their dilution is a red flag for retail investors unless they refinance. They have an equity financing with ATW AI LLC allowing issuance of $1B of shares 95% market discount. Repeat: Way below-market dilution potential. They also proposed another 3B+ share authorization. Unless they refinance or avoid drawing from the EPFA, I don't see how retail holders can benefit from holding shares apart from short term pumps + expanding rev by a ton (which involves dilution + financing).

-122.1%

BIRD

“I'd rather go long on $BIRD here than $BIRD”

Long · low conviction · 2026-04-15 · View on X ↗

Full post

@daniel_koss I'd rather go long on $BIRD here than $IREN.

-80.3%

See every call for yourself — filter by conviction or direction, switch the time horizon, and chart any single trade.

Explore the Analysis →

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pulled @aleabitoreddit's post history, used AI to extract each investment call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtested every call against real price history. “Beating the market” means out-performing the stock's own sector over the month after the post — so a call only counts as a win if it beat a fair benchmark, not just if the stock rose. The headline numbers use the cleanest signal: high-conviction long calls.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.