XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @aleabitoreddit · 1 Jun 2026

out of 10

@aleabitoreddit · 3250 verified calls backtested

Worth Following

@aleabitoreddit's calls have beaten their sector by 5.7% per month, winning 54% of the time.

+5.7%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.3%

1 day

+5.7%

1 month

+13.2%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

54%

Calls that beat the market

based on 907 deduplicated bets

54% beat their sector 46% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 907 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Very unlikely to be luck

Across 907 bets, @aleabitoreddit's average call beat its sector by 5.7% — t = 4.5, very unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 4.5 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 907 bets count as 565 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 4.5, not the raw 5.7. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.3%	+0.3%	51%	992
1 month	+5.7%	+6.6%	54%	907
3 months	+13.2%	+14.5%	52%	645
6 months	-0.3%	-0.1%	43%	324

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction2496 calls · 54% hit

+5.9%

Low conviction378 calls · 52% hit

+3.8%

Return by post type

News Reaction47 calls · 66% hit

+9.7%

Prediction1027 calls · 55% hit

+7.0%

Position Disclosure353 calls · 51% hit

+5.9%

Analysis1444 calls · 54% hit

+4.4%

Long vs short

Long2811 calls · 54% hit

+5.8%

Short63 calls · 57% hit

-4.7%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-08-31 BKKT

“Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B)”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

My moonshot baskets for 1000% returns in 5y given current valuations. Space - $RKLB (220B) AI - $CRWV (470B) Semi - $CREDO (200B), $TSSI (3.8B) Crypto - $BKKT (1.8B) Fintech - $DJT (49B) Social - $BMBL (6.2B) Health - $HIMS (95B) Software - $UPWK (19B) What are your picks?

+280.1%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-01-30 AXTI

“$AXTI I'm actually extremely bullish on out of the group of stocks I've posted and im a net buyer at these levels”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$AXTI I’m actually extremely bullish on out of the group of stocks I’ve posted and im a net buyer at these levels. I’ll make a follow-up post but I just see 7n indium prices increase every day. And the photonics ramp are incredible if you look at 2027-2027. I did take cut on others like $OSS, after a 100% rally but still hold positions. $LPTH there was some concerning stuff regarding cheaper germanium alternatives so I did trim some positions. I’m in a weird situation where I need to be truthful/objective but don’t enjoy posting bear updates or when I sell since I don’t want to spread panic. So I just lean on the side of caution by refraining from it unless it’s extremely material (like an ATM) Last time I posted about selling $IREN I had a flood of negative comment spam for the next few weeks.

+149.1%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2026-03-20 AEHR

“$AEHR is one of my favorite longs”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@mi20483980476 @moderndayvenom $AEHR is one of my favorite longs. Unfortunately the question asked me to pick 5 only

+140.6%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2026-04-19 IQE

“It's at the beginning of discovery stage to institutions. … But no, it's still early”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@marv_jones6 Point72 literally just started buying $IQE last week. It’s at the beginning of discovery stage to institutions. The only reason it feels “late” is because I pointed it out extremely early and it’s already up few hundred %. But no, it’s still early

-62.6%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2026-05-01 Auros

“Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

… to hybrid bonding. -> Thin-film thickness measurement. ---> Getting qualified now, with "major domestic chipmaker" (either Samsung/Sk hynix), targets mass supply this year. They've been developing for the past decade, only to volume ramp two products from years of qualification H2 this year. Seems extremely likely to 3x to $630M if they switch to volume ramp, feels like an undiscovered gem in the Korean market? Of course, not sure how they play out and this is all speculative but high confidence supply chain mapping. But off the top of my head these three that I own are the most likely ones at this level.

-55.9%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2025-10-15 WYFI

“would rather just get direct exposure to $WYFI”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@Rainier_hs A good lesson to learn is that companies trade under NAV all the time. And especially since it's an ETH holding company that dilutes for non HPC purposes, would rather just get direct exposure to $WYFI.

-46.6%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short predictions +1.8% vs +0.3% overall · 23 bets
1 month long predictions +6.6% vs +5.7% overall · 299 bets
3 months long analysis posts +17.0% vs +13.2% overall · 298 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@aleabitoreddit · audited 1 Jun 2026

calls found3,250

independent bets907

beat the market54%

avg edge / month+5.7%

best callBKKT +280.1%

worst callIQE -62.6%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING

SCORE 9/10

Watch out for

their long predictions · +6.6% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @aleabitoreddit's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.