@jukan05's calls have beaten their sector by 7.4% per month, winning 63% of the time.

North American Quarterly Earnings Outlook: AI Momentum Remains Strong, But Inventory and Durability Spark Debate Morgan Stanley (J. Moore, 25/07/14) Morgan Stanley believes that AI supply and demand remain strong, but other sectors are affected by inventory replenishment and trade uncertainty. Some company managements are adopting a more conservative stance, and while market sentiment is strengthening, it still shows skepticism. AI Remains Core Growth Driver, NVDA, ALAB, MRVL Expected to Show Strong Performance Morgan Stanley emphasizes that AI investment remains the primary driving factor, optimistic about the performance across the entire chain from processors to networking, storage, and memory. NVDA is the top pick, while ALAB and MRVL have upside potential, especially ALAB, which maintains strong fundamentals amidst weak market sentiment. Hyperscale cloud service providers are expected to continue revising up their Blackwell procurement plans, driving sustained expenditure growth in 2026. Partial Inventory Replenishment Driven by Tariffs, Durability Remains Major Market Debate Point Recent inventory growth is partly in response to tariff uncertainties. After inventory destocking in 1Q, 2Q/3Q entered a replenishment phase. Although demand is not strong, customers need to maintain higher buffer inventories. In contrast, conservative statements from management have led to stock price pressure; Morgan Stanley tends to favor more conservative players as more noteworthy.…

Goldman Sachs NAND Commentary: Supply/Demand Significantly Tightening; Incremental SSD Data Points NAND supply and demand has tightened significantly over the last two quarters, driven by a combination of production discipline from the supply side—including Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and YMTC—and robust demand (from legacy markets such as smartphones and the AI inference sector). We have not heard reports of plans to add new NAND wafer capacity; instead, typical technology migration via upgrades appears to be the consensus plan across suppliers. Suppliers generally project 2026 NAND bit supply growth to be in the mid-10% range. Bit demand growth has the potential to reach the high-teens to 20% range, primarily driven by data center applications, with recent surges in demand for AI inference and HDD replacement. Consequently, we expect supply shortages to persist for at least the next several quarters, and potentially through 2027. We also anticipate this will lead to sequential (QoQ) pricing increases over the coming quarters, with companies having higher exposure to channel and retail markets relative to fixed contract pricing (including SanDisk) likely realizing greater upside. Regarding the Enterprise SSD (eSSD) market, hyperscalers and the enterprise sector continue to drive demand. Our partner checks indicate that SanDisk has secured a second hyperscaler contract for eSSD from Google. Volume shipments are scheduled to ramp up in 1H 2026, with the potential to surpass…

GF Overseas Electronics & Communication AI Network: Short-term Disturbances Do Not Alter the Long-term Trend Recent Supply Chain Concerns Recently, due to China’s slower approval of export licenses to Taiwan and tighter export controls to Japan, AXT Inc. (AXTI) lowered its 4Q25 revenue guidance. This has heightened market concerns over the supply chain for related suppliers including AXTI (AXTI), Sumitomo Electric (5802 JP), Lumentum (LITE Buy), and Coherent (COHR Hold). However, we believe inventories have already been built up in advance along the supply chain, and recent comments from hyperscalers continue to point to a constructive outlook for overseas optical module manufacturers through 2027. Therefore, we view the short-term supply chain impact as not altering the medium- to long-term trend. Both COHR and LITE continue to offer significant upside potential through 2027. Stock Impact LITE and COHR have corrected recently, primarily due to concerns over optical utilization rates, upstream material export controls, and some profit-taking after LITE’s 35–40x P/E had priced in near-term expectations. Looking toward 2027, we remain bullish on robust growth in 800G and 1.6T demand. We are also positive on Google’s stance toward optical architectures, given its advantage in interconnect chip count relative to Nvidia, as well as the expected optical ramp-up from other hyperscalers. We believe upstream material supply concerns are already partially priced in. Meanwhile, gi…

Advantest earnings highlights: - SoC tester market share increased from 56% in CY24 to 66% in CY25, clearly reinforcing its advantage over Teradyne. - The company received its first high-volume ATE order for silicon photonics. One-line take: Advantest clearly proved why its stock deserves to trade at a premium.

I've been calling ASML since October last year, predicting that DRAM would face a severe supply shortage, and that as the three major DRAM makers ramp up capacity expansions, ASML's EUV tools would become the subject of an intense scramble. My thesis is gradually playing out. ASML's EUV slots are already fully sold out through 2027, and negotiations for 2028 allocations are now underway. Most recently, Samsung alone ordered 20 EUV systems for a single fab. ASML is still cheap.

… 9) To secure sufficient 1-c DRAM production volume for important customers like NVIDIA, Samsung is proactively starting with ample capacity to offset potential mass production yield risks that may arise in the future. (10) Accordingly, we believe that regardless of the actual progress of 1-c DRAM, it is time to buy into beneficiary companies such as Tokyo Electron, Eugene Technology, and EO Technics, and we maintain our Overweight rating on our covered companies. (11) Tokyo Electron: Expected to benefit from Samsung Electronics' DRAM investment due to its relatively high exposure to batch-type CVD equipment for titanium nitride (TiN) processes. (12) EO Technics: Expected to supply laser annealing and marking equipment, and potentially femtosecond laser-based cutting equipment, for the P4/P3 lines dedicated to 1-c DRAM. (13) Eugene Technology: Expected to benefit from Samsung Electronics' 1-c DRAM CAPEX execution due to its dominant market share in the LPCVD market, capable of controlling thickness and uniformity. (14) However, we maintain a cautious stance on other equipment stocks such as Kokusai Electric/Wonik IPS/HPSP due to potential market share declines.