XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @ericnuttall · 18 Jun 2026

out of 10

@ericnuttall · 602 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@ericnuttall's calls have beaten their sector by 0.5% per month, winning 46% of the time.

+0.5%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.1%

1 day

+0.7%

1 month

+0.1%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

46%

Calls that beat the market

based on 378 deduplicated bets

46% beat their sector 54% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 378 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Not yet conclusive

Across 378 bets, @ericnuttall's average call beat its sector by 0.5% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 1.0, but not decisive yet.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 1.0 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 378 bets count as 303 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 1.0, not the raw 1.1. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.1%	+0.1%	49%	380
1 month	+0.7%	+0.6%	48%	378
3 months	+0.1%	-0.3%	46%	373
6 months	+0.6%	-0.5%	42%	359
1 year	+2.7%	+0.2%	42%	334

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction532 calls · 47% hit

+0.6%

Low conviction66 calls · 44% hit

+0.6%

Return by post type

Analysis315 calls · 47% hit

+0.8%

Prediction247 calls · 48% hit

+0.6%

Position Disclosure19 calls · 37% hit

-1.0%

News Reaction17 calls · 35% hit

-2.8%

Long vs short

Long597 calls · 47% hit

+0.6%

Short1 calls · 0% hit

-1.3%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2021-09-08 NNRG

“Consider the Ninepoint Energy ETF (NNRG:NEO)”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Looking for a focused basket of Canadian oil stocks that in my opinion are best positioned to return the most amount of free cashflow back to shareholders in 2022? Consider the Ninepoint Energy ETF (NNRG:NEO). Refer to the fund prospectus for more details. https://t.co/2etP2xsWLC https://t.co/DchxYYcx3U

+32.2%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2019-03-20 Baytex Energy

“It should be clear neither face bankruptcy risk. Most analysts are using a stale strip price deck. $60/bbl vs $52 makes a world of difference. Q1/Q2 = impending…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@JohnTavaresJr I have recently posted a graph showing debt:cash flow levels for both companies you mentioned. It should be clear neither face bankruptcy risk. Most analysts are using a stale strip price deck. $60/bbl vs $52 makes a world of difference. Q1/Q2 = impending upward revisions.

+15.1%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit C · 2020-02-20 Precision Drilling

“even a modest trading multiple re-rate will = significant share price upside”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Investor apathy resulting from the worst energy bear market in history has led to jaw-dropping trading multiple compression. From January 1, 2017 to now @CPG_Corp is down 77% (while oil is flat at $54) despite CFPS up 2%, debt down 41%, and share count down 5%... #OOTT https://t.co/c2A0mizJcQ --- @CPG_Corp In service land, Precision Drilling is down 74% since January 1, 2017 despite EBITDA up 27%, debt down 27%, and share count down 4%. When funds flow ultimately return to the sector even a modest trading multiple re-rate will = significant share price upside. #OOTT https://t.co/sYRoT8y0Vg

-22.0%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long news-reaction posts +0.7% vs +0.1% overall · 13 bets
1 month long predictions +1.0% vs +0.7% overall · 144 bets
3 months long position disclosures +4.1% vs +0.1% overall · 15 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@ericnuttall · audited 18 Jun 2026

calls found602

independent bets378

beat the market46%

avg edge / month+0.5%

best callNNRG +32.2%

worst callPrecision Drilling -22.0%

VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE

SCORE 4/10

Watch out for

their long predictions · +1.0% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

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How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @ericnuttall's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.