@livermoreoption — every call, examined

The benchmark. Not just “did it go up?” — we report how much each call beat (or lost to) a fair benchmark, the extra return it added on top.

vs. its sector = vs other stocks in its industry (the fair skill test). vs. the S&P 500 = vs the broad market. Toggle to switch every chart.

The running total. One step per bet: the stock's return after the call, minus the benchmark's return over the same window, summed in posting order.

The luck test. The same bets replayed 1,000 times with each direction chosen at random. Where the real record finishes among the reruns shows how much chance could explain.

Time frames. Each call is tracked 1 day → 6 months after the post. The Horizon control picks which one drives the charts (1 month by default).

Hit rate = share of bets that beat the benchmark (50% = coin-flip). Conviction = how hard they pushed; direction = long (rise) or short (fall).