XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @stocktalkweekly · 25 Jun 2026

@stocktalkweekly · 454 verified calls backtested

@stocktalkweekly's calls have beaten their sector by 7.2% per month, winning 57% of the time.

+7.2%
Avg. return vs its sector
per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)
+0.5%
1 day
+7.7%
1 month
+12.8%
3 months
the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months
57%
Calls that beat the market
based on 302 deduplicated bets
57% beat their sector 43% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means
Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 302 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.
Very unlikely to be luck

Across 302 bets, @stocktalkweekly's average call beat its sector by 7.2% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 3.3, very unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 3.3 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 302 bets count as 145 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 3.3, not the raw 4.8. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day +0.5% +0.5% 51% 307
1 month +7.7% +8.2% 59% 297
3 months +12.8% +14.0% 59% 268
6 months +20.2% +25.7% 52% 241
1 year +69.5% +71.6% 53% 59

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction303 calls · 64% hit
+6.8%
Low conviction136 calls · 57% hit
+9.7%

Return by post type

News Reaction185 calls · 65% hit
+10.8%
Prediction70 calls · 64% hit
+7.8%
Position Disclosure104 calls · 62% hit
+6.8%
Analysis80 calls · 51% hit
+1.6%

Long vs short

Long436 calls · 62% hit
+7.9%
Short3 calls · 0% hit
-16.4%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-09-16 IREN
“IREN $IREN price-target raised to $42 (from $37) at Canaccord Genuity”
Long · low conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
IREN $IREN price-target raised to $42 (from $37) at Canaccord Genuity: "While IREN stock has already made a material move, we believe all of the hard work the company has put into motion has more payoff to come. Our new price target of $42 can be looked at more through a sum of the parts lens, where Sweetwater 1 and Horizon 1 are valued closely to peer companies who have signed data center deals (approximately $7.4B) and BTC mining revenue is valued at ~2x revenue or ~ $2B. This leaves $2.8B for the GPU cloud business (management expecting a $250MM revenue run rate exiting the year and where CRWV trades at 6x next year's sales) and Sweetwater 2, an expected 2027 energization of another 600MW near Abilene."
+86.8%vs sector
Exhibit B · 2025-09-17 LEU
“Centrus Energy $LEU another core position of mine was in at $40s, out $80s last year, and then in at $96 again this year in May. Not selling this time.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
@geokoutalidis Great work, George! Yeah, these are just a couple examples... Centrus Energy $LEU another core position of mine was in at $40s, out $80s last year, and then in at $96 again this year in May. Not selling this time. Been so many great opps in the market in under-the-radar stocks
+84.9%vs sector
Exhibit C · 2026-05-04 OSS
“still very much long $OSS one of my largest positions... $4.71 cost basis lets me chill thru the volatility”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
@anandragn Like them both, still very much long $OSS one of my largest positions... $4.71 cost basis lets me chill thru the volatility
+76.2%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-10-11 UUUU
“not having $UUUU tagged here is wild considering they're literally the *only* heavy REE operation in the country. … Will be scaled by Q4 2026 as opposed to MP t…”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
@Reformed_Trader With you on $CODI, but not having $UUUU tagged here is wild considering they're literally the *only* heavy REE operation in the country ( $MP only does lights which are the not the choke). Will be scaled by Q4 2026 as opposed to MP targeting 2028.
-40.0%vs sector
Exhibit E · 2025-10-11 CODI
“Arnold is worth billions in current rare earth multiple environment. Especially considering uniqueness & profitability of asset.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
Zero out every subsidiary (which is unnecessary even in max risk scenario) or assume multiple subs get sold to satisfy penalties & debt & whatever else -- doesn't matter Arnold is worth billions in current rare earth multiple environment. Especially considering uniqueness & profitability of asset.
-36.2%vs sector
Exhibit F · 2025-06-03 BRZE
“Initiate with Overweight rating and $45 price target. … We see shares with a favorable risk / reward ratio.”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
BRAZE $BRZE initiated at 'Overweight' at Cantor Fitzgerald, with a $45 price-target: "Initiate with Overweight rating and $45 price target. Our PT assumes an EV/rev multiple of 5.5x our CY26 revenue estimate. While BRZE is subject to macro headwinds, we view the current 4.3x EV/CY26E rev multiple as undemanding and likely already discounting a soft macro environment. As a result, we see shares with a favorable risk / reward ratio. Ample growth levers to drive sustained strong growth: BRZE’s unique data platform and enterprise-grade technology positions the company well to capture its fair share of the ~$30b TAM. Upmarket traction has been, and will continue to be, a key driver of growth. BRZE continues investing heavily in its platform and expanding channel partner relationships, both key to driving further enterprise adoption. Cross-selling is an integral component of this algorithm. We think BRZE can maintain NRR north of 110% given the significant opportunities to sell into its base. Driving significant operating leverage: Impressively, BRZE has driven robust incremental margins despite continued rapid growth; this should continue. We forecast op margins to reach 7.3% in FY27, or a ~1,600bps improvement from FY24."
-26.7%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

  • 1 day long position disclosures +1.6% vs +0.5% overall · 59 bets
  • 1 month long news-reaction posts +11.0% vs +7.7% overall · 144 bets
  • 3 months long position disclosures +21.3% vs +12.8% overall · 44 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →
THE RECEIPTS
@stocktalkweekly · audited 25 Jun 2026

calls found454
independent bets302
beat the market57%
avg edge / month+7.2%
best callIREN +86.8%
worst callUUUU -40.0%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING
SCORE 9/10

Watch out for
their long news-reaction posts · +11.0% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone
Share the receipts on X ↗ Download all calls (CSV) ↓

Help shape XAnalytics

Was this report useful?

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @stocktalkweekly's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.