XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @mrwgreig · 2 Jun 2026

out of 10

@mrwgreig · 482 verified calls backtested

Worth Following

@mrwgreig's calls have beaten their sector by 2.0% per month, winning 47% of the time.

+2.0%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.4%

1 day

+2.0%

1 month

+2.8%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

47%

Calls that beat the market

based on 235 deduplicated bets

47% beat their sector 53% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 235 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Unlikely to be luck

Across 235 bets, @mrwgreig's average call beat its sector by 2.0% — t = 2.3, unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 2.3 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 235 bets count as 206 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 2.3, not the raw 2.5. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.4%	+0.5%	49%	237
1 month	+2.0%	+2.1%	47%	235
3 months	+2.8%	+2.9%	49%	235
6 months	+6.6%	+7.0%	49%	230

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction388 calls · 61% hit

+2.9%

Low conviction89 calls · 44% hit

+1.6%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure94 calls · 65% hit

+4.5%

Prediction292 calls · 56% hit

+2.4%

Analysis82 calls · 55% hit

+1.2%

News Reaction8 calls · 38% hit

+0.7%

Long vs short

Long290 calls · 60% hit

+4.4%

Short187 calls · 53% hit

+0.0%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2024-10-25 PLTR

“imo worth $60”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Last short entry into $PLTR today at $45 ATH. I think it's overbought and can retrace to form a potential cup/handle setup. If this happens, strong chance it ends up somewhere in the 2 parallel channel overlap for a 20-30% correction to ~$30-36 before a potential rally to break ATH. Earnings next week will likely determine this. My $PLTR short is also a proxy hedge to my $NVDA $TSLA upside --- Closed this trade for -50% loss. $PLTR is overextended short term but imo worth $60. The short entry loss is less than 5% of the gains I made from long $PLTR stock

+40.9%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2025-11-11 ONON

“Long at w/ stock and LEAPs at ~35 and hedge with weekly far OTM covered calls. … Targets are ~40, ~45, ~60. … $ONON at $15b is worth more than $LULU (currently…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Rarely do I post any non-tech names, but $ONON into tomorrow's earnings looks like an optimal asymmetrical setup (30%+ upside; 10-15% downside). Fib chan/golden retracement and <30 RSI on 1d/2d/1w suggest technical symmetry to upside. Fundamentals also look solid ex-tariff opaqueness. As a higher-end brand, I suspect all recent consumer cyclical weakness to be significantly overblown, though USD/CHF FX headwinds likely remain near-term. 1. Long at w/ stock and LEAPs at ~35 and hedge with weekly far OTM covered calls 2. 2nd entry at ~30-31 (if we go there) Targets are ~40, ~45, ~60. --- Updated price targets post-earnings. $ONON at $15b is worth more than $LULU (currently at 20b). Easier to get into apparel market than it is sneakers. Market will figure it out. https://t.co/UdCM875qmp

+38.5%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-11-17 MDB

“Back in $MDB long at ~335 into NVDA earnings + MDB reports Dec 1. I expect ~325 to hold, next level ~308. If 308 fails to hold, cut losses.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Back in $MDB long at ~335 into NVDA earnings + MDB reports Dec 1. I expect ~325 to hold, next level ~308. If 308 fails to hold, cut losses. -8% downside; +35% upside

+22.1%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2021-11-09 PLTR

“Just bought PLTR Jan 30c's”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@pakpakchicken Just bought PLTR Jan 30c’s

-18.7%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2024-01-10 U

“Bought $U at $35.69 ytday - will buy more around 28-33”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@cryptocantoncat Bought $U at $35.69 ytday - will buy more around 28-33. 5th wave + Descending wedge + potential H/S likely still some chop until earnings.

-14.6%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2024-02-06 NVDA

“$NVDA (right) selling off at top end of its rising broadening pattern”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$MSFT (left) diamond top forming + potential 5th wave completion; potential market top with $NVDA (right) selling off at top end of its rising broadening pattern. Both daily views. https://t.co/57NvNgaaRh --- $MSFT MACD crossover on daily as well https://t.co/u8xHZjsbRS

-12.6%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long news-reaction posts +2.3% vs +0.4% overall · 4 bets
1 month long position disclosures +5.1% vs +2.0% overall · 50 bets
3 months long news-reaction posts +8.5% vs +2.8% overall · 4 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@mrwgreig · audited 2 Jun 2026

calls found482

independent bets235

beat the market47%

avg edge / month+2.0%

best callPLTR +40.9%

worst callPLTR -18.7%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING

SCORE 7/10

Watch out for

their long position disclosures · +5.1% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @mrwgreig's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.