XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @pernasresearch · 31 May 2026

@pernasresearch · 220 verified calls backtested

Marginal

@pernasresearch's calls have beaten their sector by 2.2% per month, winning 52% of the time.

+2.2%
Avg. return vs its sector
per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)
+0.2%
1 day
+2.2%
1 month
-0.1%
3 months
the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months
52%
Calls that beat the market
based on 183 deduplicated bets
52% beat their sector 48% didn't

A slight edge — promising, but not decisive.

What “return vs sector” means
Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 183 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.
Not yet conclusive

Across 183 bets, @pernasresearch's average call beat its sector by 2.2%t = 1.5, but not decisive yet.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 1.5 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 183 bets count as 177 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 1.5, not the raw 1.6. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day +0.2% +0.2% 48% 192
1 month +2.2% +2.3% 52% 183
3 months -0.1% +0.7% 46% 175
6 months +11.8% +13.5% 50% 163

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction106 calls · 56% hit
+2.9%
Low conviction103 calls · 46% hit
+1.1%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure42 calls · 55% hit
+4.5%
Prediction64 calls · 50% hit
+3.0%
News Reaction8 calls · 62% hit
+2.7%
Analysis95 calls · 48% hit
+0.2%

Long vs short

Long185 calls · 51% hit
+2.2%
Short24 calls · 50% hit
+0.6%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2023-12-05 YELLQ
Re-entered long YELLQ; calculates 600mm shareholder recovery vs current price, implying 500%+ upside from auction results beating stalking horse by 400mm. summary
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
HUGE news for Yellow Corporation shareholders. Auction results came in 400mm above stalking horse bid. By our calculations, shareholder recovery should be around 600mm, indicating more than 500% upside. $yellq (either we totally missed something or the pop on open will be gargantuan) --- we re-entered the position at open. For those interested, there is a good piece on SA from Wyco Researcher: https://t.co/eOjfwmOA1o
+133.9%vs sector
Exhibit B · 2021-01-28 GME
“We bought some way OTM puts on GME yesterday that expire in two weeks”
Short · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
We bought some way OTM puts on GME yesterday that expire in two weeks. Most expensive options ever but still worth it. So weird to have an option play that is way out of the money, expires in two weeks but also feel like it’s massively positive theta.
+44.6%vs sector
Exhibit C · 2021-10-12 LEU
“We still see significant upside with global sentiment on uranium changing along with their monopoly on HALEU production starting in 2022”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
$LEU up about 400% since our write-up. We still see significant upside with global sentiment on uranium changing along with their monopoly on HALEU production starting in 2022. https://t.co/1DJwp82mpb
+41.4%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2023-06-08 SNBR
Bearish SNBR: excessive debt, poor capital allocation (buybacks at 5x current price), and deteriorating market make it uninvestable. summary
Short · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
$SNBR is a vertically integrated mattress and has been aggressively pursuing growth with high advertising budgets, spending almost as much as TempurSealy, a company with 2.5x the revenues of SNBR. SNBR is a solid brand however its ~$470mm revolver debt level gives us pause. 1/n --- The last three years, it repurchased $700mm of stock at avg share price of $100; the share price today is 1/5 of that. Repurchases have tapered off while share prices have plummeted. Lack of sound capital allocation plus a more fragile balance sheet leaves us unable to invest. --- $SNBR down 40% AH. Fragile balance sheet + lack of sound capital allocation + deteriorating market is a bad combination.
-34.8%vs sector
Exhibit E · 2023-11-01 RELY
“Long $RELY”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
Remitly $RELY earnings update: Despite revenue beat, market is hammering the stock AH, down 22% Revenue totaled $241.6 million, compared to $169.3 million, up 43%. y/y (slight beat on estimates) Net loss was $35.7 million, compared to a net loss of $33.1 million. y/y (slight miss on estimates, mostly non cash SBC) Adjusted EBITDA was $10.5 million, compared to $(3.7) million. y/y Thoughts after call: Management made it clear that they are focused on more growth expenditures and market clearly wants them to pare back and focus on profitability. Remitly cash burn is ~breakeven and they have ample liquidity (over 400mm) and no debt. They are internally funding growth. Shifting gears to focus on profitability now is not the right move given they are in the ~second inning of a large and scalable market opportunity. Long $RELY
-29.9%vs sector
Exhibit F · 2025-02-06 PSFE
“We are long $PSFE Paysafe”
Long · high conviction · View on X ↗
Full post
We are long $PSFE Paysafe Stock is up 18% on takeover rumors. Our deep dive was released yesterday (epic timing). Business background + Thesis:🧵 --- Paysafe is a global payments provider specializing in high-risk verticals: iGaming, travel, crypto, forex trading etc. --- The company went public via SPAC in 2021 and has since declined ~80%, largely due to SPAC bubble imploding. --- Under new CEO, Paysafe is successfully transitioning into a unified, growth-oriented payments platform after years of fragmented operations from M&A. --- Two business segments: Merchant Solutions: Payment processing driven by direct and distribution partners (ISOs, ISVs). Digital Wallets: Primarily Skrill and Neteller which are heavily used in iGaming throughout Europe --- Paysafe’s edge comes from deep regulatory expertise, merchant underwriting in high-risk industries, and global banking relationships that competitors struggle to match. --- The U.S. iGaming market is still in its early stages and set to double by 2029. --- Full write-up that also includes a brief industry background: https://t.co/hSLIJo4rng
-25.8%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

  • 1 day long news-reaction posts +6.1% vs +0.2% overall · 7 bets
  • 1 month long news-reaction posts +4.5% vs +2.2% overall · 7 bets
  • 3 months long news-reaction posts +24.0% vs -0.1% overall · 7 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →
THE RECEIPTS
@pernasresearch · audited 31 May 2026

calls found220
independent bets183
beat the market52%
avg edge / month+2.2%
best callYELLQ +133.9%
worst callSNBR -34.8%

VERDICT: MARGINAL
SCORE 6/10

Watch out for
their long news-reaction posts · +4.5% after 1 month

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How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @pernasresearch's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.