@pernasresearch · 224 verified calls backtested

Marginal

@pernasresearch's high-conviction long calls have beaten their sector by 2.0% on average in the month after each call, winning 54% of the time.

+1.0%

1 day

+2.0%

1 month

-2.7%

3 months

Avg. market-beating return

per call · vs the stock's own sector

54%

Calls that beat the market

based on 74 high-conviction long calls

54% beat their sector 46% didn't

A slight edge — promising, but not decisive.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.2%	+0.2%	48%	223
1 month	+2.1%	+2.2%	51%	213
3 months	-1.2%	-0.7%	44%	204
6 months	+11.3%	+12.6%	49%	192

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction80 calls · 54% hit

+2.0%

Low conviction133 calls · 50% hit

+2.3%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure43 calls · 56% hit

+4.5%

Prediction64 calls · 50% hit

+3.2%

News Reaction8 calls · 62% hit

+2.7%

Analysis98 calls · 49% hit

+0.4%

Long vs short

Long185 calls · 51% hit

+2.2%

Short28 calls · 54% hit

+2.0%

Best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

YELLQ

“we re-entered the position at open. shareholder recovery should be around 600mm, indicating more than 500% upside”

Long · high conviction · 2023-12-05 · View on X ↗

Full post

HUGE news for Yellow Corporation shareholders. Auction results came in 400mm above stalking horse bid. By our calculations, shareholder recovery should be around 600mm, indicating more than 500% upside. $yellq (either we totally missed something or the pop on open will be gargantuan) --- we re-entered the position at open. For those interested, there is a good piece on SA from Wyco Researcher: https://t.co/eOjfwmOA1o

+133.9%

CGEH

“$CGEH now up +600% since our initiation. We still own in size”

Long · high conviction · 2026-04-30 · View on X ↗

+49.9%

GME

“We bought some way OTM puts on GME yesterday that expire in two weeks”

Short · high conviction · 2021-01-28 · View on X ↗

Full post

We bought some way OTM puts on GME yesterday that expire in two weeks. Most expensive options ever but still worth it. So weird to have an option play that is way out of the money, expires in two weeks but also feel like it’s massively positive theta.

+44.6%

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

RELY

“Long $RELY”

Long · high conviction · 2023-11-01 · View on X ↗

Full post

Remitly $RELY earnings update: Despite revenue beat, market is hammering the stock AH, down 22% Revenue totaled $241.6 million, compared to $169.3 million, up 43%. y/y (slight beat on estimates) Net loss was $35.7 million, compared to a net loss of $33.1 million. y/y (slight miss on estimates, mostly non cash SBC) Adjusted EBITDA was $10.5 million, compared to $(3.7) million. y/y Thoughts after call: Management made it clear that they are focused on more growth expenditures and market clearly wants them to pare back and focus on profitability. Remitly cash burn is ~breakeven and they have ample liquidity (over 400mm) and no debt. They are internally funding growth. Shifting gears to focus on profitability now is not the right move given they are in the ~second inning of a large and scalable market opportunity. Long $RELY

-29.9%

PAYS

“Should bode well for $PAYS”

Long · low conviction · 2021-11-05 · View on X ↗

Full post

CSL plasma increasing rewards for first time donors 10% to $1100/month.CSL has increased rewards by almost 200% since last year to incent new plasma donors! Should bode well for $PAYS. https://t.co/8BH3zONTWj https://t.co/zEyxQKEf9R

-28.9%

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How we measured this · download the raw data

We pulled @pernasresearch's post history, used AI to extract each investment call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtested every call against real price history. “Beating the market” means out-performing the stock's own sector over the month after the post — so a call only counts as a win if it beat a fair benchmark, not just if the stock rose. The headline numbers use the cleanest signal: high-conviction long calls.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.