XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @CoffeeStocksGuy · 1 Jul 2026

out of 10

@CoffeeStocksGuy · 802 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@CoffeeStocksGuy's calls have beaten their sector by 0.4% per month, winning 45% of the time.

+0.4%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.1%

1 day

+0.3%

1 month

+0.7%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

45%

Calls that beat the market

based on 240 deduplicated bets

45% beat their sector 55% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 240 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Indistinguishable from luck

Across 240 bets, @CoffeeStocksGuy's average call beat its sector by 0.4% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 0.3, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 0.3 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 240 bets count as 240 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 0.3, not the raw 0.2. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.1%	-0.0%	45%	290
1 month	+0.3%	+1.9%	45%	239
3 months	+0.7%	+0.7%	38%	143
6 months	-0.1%	-0.4%	48%	56

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction584 calls · 49% hit

+1.9%

Low conviction78 calls · 35% hit

-4.3%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure95 calls · 59% hit

+6.3%

News Reaction24 calls · 62% hit

+5.2%

Analysis262 calls · 43% hit

+1.5%

Prediction280 calls · 46% hit

-1.4%

Long vs short

Long631 calls · 48% hit

+2.0%

Short31 calls · 23% hit

-15.9%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-04-15 POET

“$POET. $1B market cap. Full thesis below”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Marvell $MRVL spent $3.25B to acquire Celestial AI. Celestial AI's ENTIRE Photonic architecture runs on $POET's Optical Interposer. Marvell has the DSPs. The switch ASICs. The AI networking stack. The one thing they don't control? The substrate everything sits on. $POET. $1B market cap. Full thesis below👇

+167.5%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-04-03 BE

“Bloom Energy. $7.65B in AI data centre deals closed in 90 days. Doubling manufacturing to 2GW by end of year. The grid can't keep up. Fuel cells can.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

5 stocks nobody in my feed is talking about. My new conviction ranking - April 2026: 🚀 1. $VELO — Velo3D prints 5 structural parts inside every SpaceX Raptor engine. Already working on Raptor 4. This is the hidden supply chain play on the SpaceX IPO. Full thesis tomorrow. ⚡ 2. $BE — Bloom Energy. $7.65B in AI data centre deals closed in 90 days. Doubling manufacturing to 2GW by end of year. The grid can't keep up. Fuel cells can. 💡3. $COPX — Copper miners ETF. Down ~23% from its highs on Iran disruption. But AI data centres run on copper. Every server rack. Every power cable. The demand case hasn't changed. 🌕 4. $LUNR — Artemis II is in the sky right now. Intuitive Machines is tracking it. $180M NASA contract just landed in March. The lunar economy is no longer theoretical. ₿ 5. $SWC — UK micro-cap most Americans haven't found. Trading at 0.75x mNAV — you're buying Bitcoin at a 25% discount. Largest corporate BTC holder in the UK. None of these are in most portfolios yet. That's usually when the best returns happen. Bookmark these for later 🗒

+114.0%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-12-13 ONDS

“I own $ONDS as my third largest position - looking to increase at any opportunity”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@Kaizen_Investor Thank you, appreciated. I own $ONDS as my third largest position - looking to increase at any opportunity 👊

+78.4%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-12-30 IREN

“$IREN and $CIFR have more downside before a recovery”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

For me, $IREN and $CIFR have more downside before a recovery. Rejected at key resistance fib’s and lots of room to hit key supports in a low volume environment.

-68.3%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2026-05-28 ARBE

“12x year-over-year growth … Hirain shipping chipsets for a 48x48 L4 radar project … Robotaxi players placed follow-on Phoenix orders … PEAK6 filed a 5%+ stake l…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$ARBE Q1 2026 earnings just dropped and it’s seriously impressive. Revenue: $0.5M - up from $0.04M a year ago. That’s 12x year-over-year growth. From a small base, but the direction is unambiguous. Net loss narrowed to $9.4M from $13.8M. Operating expenses down 16%. A 15% cost reduction hasn’t even hit the P&L yet - that kicks in mid-Q2. Cash: $53.6M. Full year guidance reaffirmed at $4–6M. The operational story is what matters here. Hirain shipping chipsets for a 48x48 L4 radar project with a Chinese automaker. A second Hirain platform for China’s mass market in development. Robotaxi players placed follow-on Phoenix orders. Then this: Arbe started selling complete radar systems in Q1. Initial units shipped to perimeter security and physical AI customers. Physical AI. That’s Jensen’s language. That’s the $NVDA ecosystem. Arbe’s dense, long-range, all-weather radar as the perception layer for the next era of autonomy. The company said it directly. PEAK6 filed a 5%+ stake last month. They don’t do that on a guess. Exciting times. $ARBE --- Full year guidance: $4–6M revenue. $53.6M cash.

-42.7%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-01-14 MTPLF

“It might be time to outperform with $MSTR $MTPLF”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$BTC over $95,000 It might be time to outperform with $MSTR $MTPLF #DN3 1. Textbook bounce off of Fib Levels 2. Bitcoin momentum gathering 3. Macro outlook perfect Time for the greatest asset to remind everyone why it’s going up forever. https://t.co/98BSeIQTPj

-40.9%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short analysis posts +4.3% vs +0.1% overall · 13 bets
1 month long position disclosures +4.4% vs +0.3% overall · 25 bets
3 months long analysis posts +10.8% vs +0.7% overall · 38 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@CoffeeStocksGuy · audited 1 Jul 2026

calls found802

independent bets240

beat the market45%

avg edge / month+0.4%

best callPOET +167.5%

worst callIREN -68.3%

VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE

SCORE 4/10

Watch out for

their long position disclosures · +4.4% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @CoffeeStocksGuy's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.