XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @DeepValueBagger · 28 Jun 2026

out of 10

@DeepValueBagger · 1159 verified calls backtested

Worth Following

@DeepValueBagger's calls have beaten their sector by 2.9% per month, winning 46% of the time.

+2.9%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.4%

1 day

+2.6%

1 month

+3.8%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

46%

Calls that beat the market

based on 463 deduplicated bets

46% beat their sector 54% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 463 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Unlikely to be luck

Across 463 bets, @DeepValueBagger's average call beat its sector by 2.9% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 2.7, unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 2.7 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 463 bets count as 463 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 2.7, not the raw 2.7. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.4%	+0.4%	49%	488
1 month	+2.6%	+3.0%	46%	463
3 months	+3.8%	+4.5%	44%	410
6 months	+6.1%	+6.1%	47%	348
1 year	+25.4%	+25.9%	50%	170

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction846 calls · 49% hit

+3.7%

Low conviction207 calls · 46% hit

+1.3%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure337 calls · 53% hit

+5.6%

Prediction399 calls · 48% hit

+2.9%

Analysis257 calls · 44% hit

+1.9%

News Reaction59 calls · 39% hit

-2.4%

Long vs short

Long963 calls · 48% hit

+3.5%

Short90 calls · 44% hit

-0.3%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-09-08 IREN

“yes, i'm growing more confident about their execution esp after the last quarter earnings, and the technical team like Denis”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@Wuteang yes, i'm growing more confident about their execution esp after the last quarter earnings, and the technical team like Denis.

+133.9%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-04-22 RVI

“This is a long term position. I'm betting on big multiples.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

I dont even get excited for 23% up day when position is so small. $rvi This is a long term position. I'm betting on big multiples. https://t.co/u81HzK8t79

+108.3%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-01-17 OKLO

“✅ Defense & Energy $OKLO”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

I'm locked and loaded for Jan 20, Trump's Inauguration. ✅ EV/AI $TSLA ✅ Rocket $RKLB ✅ Fintech/Bitcoin $HOOD $BTC ✅ AI/Semi $MU $AVGO ✅ Flying cars $JOBY ✅ Defense & Energy $OKLO $KTOS (small) Account $5.3m, up $1m YTD (23%) https://t.co/E2bUhboQIM

+100.0%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2026-02-13 HIMS

“It's going to zero”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@himshouse It's going to zero

-45.4%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2025-07-16 CRCL

“GENIUS bill mandates $10B+ stablecoin requires 1:1 backing, which only Circle is doing. This bill will essentially renders Tether illegal!!! Circle Bank - "Firs…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@pepemoonboy I realized today that GENIUS bill mandates $10B+ stablecoin requires 1:1 backing, which only Circle is doing. This bill will essentially renders Tether illegal!!! Circle Bank - "First Digital Currency Bank" is filed as well.

-42.2%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2025-02-19 TEM

“I saw -10% yesterday and bought in”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

On Monday, after working on my karesansui zen garden, I had some time to research more on $OKLO and some of the estimates for first station comes up like 2027 (not going to wait). And researched $GRAB, $TEM, and $SOFI more closely. $SOFI is interesting that the price hasn't caught up with valuation YTD, so it might be rotational play in the short term while $HOOD goes sideway which I have sell calls against. Long term $HOOD is the play. Initiated 50 LEAPS on SOFI. $GRAB makes me a bit nervous being in Asia, but they own a somewhat monopoly in certain countries, and revenue growth looks good, online banking via their platform is brilliant and growing (think of mini-SOFI in asia). Initiated a position before ER. $TEM has a monopoly on FDA blood testing for DNA sequencing test & AI platform and being on most of the EMR platforms. I made about $30k aggressively sell puts on it since beginning of the year. I saw -10% yesterday and bought in, sold calls at $90 for 2/27 to hedge the top (nervous about call away). OKLO took a dive to $45 so that was good timing.

-36.2%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day long position disclosures +1.1% vs +0.4% overall · 132 bets
1 month long position disclosures +5.5% vs +2.6% overall · 129 bets
3 months long predictions +9.7% vs +3.8% overall · 123 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@DeepValueBagger · audited 28 Jun 2026

calls found1,159

independent bets463

beat the market46%

avg edge / month+2.9%

best callIREN +133.9%

worst callHIMS -45.4%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING

SCORE 8/10

Watch out for

their long position disclosures · +5.5% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @DeepValueBagger's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.