XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @RonCyr9 · 27 Jun 2026

out of 10

@RonCyr9 · 154 verified calls backtested

Avoid

@RonCyr9's calls have trailed their sector by 1.7% per month, winning 38% of the time.

-1.7%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

-0.9%

1 day

-1.8%

1 month

-5.0%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

38%

Calls that beat the market

based on 122 deduplicated bets

38% beat their sector 62% didn't

Even their cleanest calls trailed the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 122 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Indistinguishable from luck

Across 122 bets, @RonCyr9's average call trailed its sector by 1.7% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = -1.6, not enough to tell skill from chance.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = -1.6 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 122 bets count as 118 effective ones. That's why the honest t is -1.6, not the raw -1.6. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	-0.9%	-0.9%	41%	123
1 month	-1.8%	-2.0%	34%	122
3 months	-5.0%	-5.3%	38%	121
6 months	-8.8%	-9.4%	31%	110
1 year	-12.7%	-14.4%	35%	100

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction127 calls · 31% hit

-4.4%

Low conviction25 calls · 48% hit

+3.8%

Return by post type

Analysis4 calls · 50% hit

+4.7%

Position Disclosure61 calls · 46% hit

-1.0%

Prediction87 calls · 25% hit

-4.9%

Long vs short

Short59 calls · 54% hit

+2.6%

Long93 calls · 22% hit

-6.7%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2023-05-16 SQQQ

“Purchased SQQQ for my accounts at $27.40”

Short · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Omg I have gone short once again after just covering last week. Chop chop chop is in the back of my mind. Purchased SQQQ for my accounts at $27.40. I was right to cover to repurchase at a lower price. Not all bad. https://t.co/N9al8T80xU

+35.4%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-01-27 Silver

“I am still committed to shorting Silver”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$SPX was up 0.41% to close at 6,978.60. My family accounts were down -0.70% and $SPXU was down -1.23%. $SPX could see a new high this week and finally breach 7,000. I am still committed to shorting Silver. I took a -5.46% hit today but allocation is 10% of portfolio. https://t.co/ClXRxe9Lin

+22.9%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-03-15 gold

“prices could go to $3,100 by June or July”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

The uptrend in gold is strong but has entered the “Panic Buying Zone”, it suggests that prices could go to $3,100 by June or July. It’s looking to be a hot summer for volatility and economic news. While the US dollar will continue to sell off into the fall. Supportive. https://t.co/6whydYc771

+12.5%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2024-08-09 oil

“invested into oil this week”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Listen to the most recent podcast from the David Lin Report. Guest speaker, Philip Pikington, explains very well why I initiated my war trade and invested into oil this week. @davidlin_TV. This was released today and thought it was a very good summary of my thesis. https://t.co/1bPqLCrObJ

-17.8%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2026-01-27 ZSL

“I plan to place a 10% position into ZSL. I plan to make that trade at the open. My price target is $3.40. This will be held for the next week.”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

I reviewed today my old April 2011 trading journal. The whole week I was extremely excited to short silver. I made a full trade on Friday April 29, 2011. I had placed $125,000 into ZSL on that date. It was an incredible week. Closed out my trade 4 sessions later at $168,000. https://t.co/tr6X73Tq8n --- Game plan for Tuesday. I plan to place a 10% position into ZSL. I plan to make that trade at the open. My price target is $3.40. This will be held for the next week. Weekly Panic Buying Zones at this level usually last 7 weeks. This is the 7th week. So many burned. https://t.co/KHdb8Hoa6y

-6.8%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2024-04-02 CL=F

“Longer term, summer price target $100.00”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

I believe the stock market needs to recognize that the price of oil could go much higher. Events in Syria between Israel and Iran will not result in direct military conflict. Risks have certainly risen and oil is reflecting that risk. Longer term, summer price target $100.00

-3.7%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 month short position disclosures +5.1% vs -1.8% overall · 23 bets
3 months short position disclosures +9.8% vs -5.0% overall · 23 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@RonCyr9 · audited 27 Jun 2026

calls found154

independent bets122

beat the market38%

avg edge / month-1.7%

best callSQQQ +35.4%

worst calloil -17.8%

VERDICT: AVOID

SCORE 1/10

Watch out for

their short position disclosures · +5.1% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @RonCyr9's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.