XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @gnoble79 · 28 Jun 2026

out of 10

@gnoble79 · 595 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@gnoble79's calls have beaten their sector by 1.0% per month, winning 53% of the time.

+1.0%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

-0.1%

1 day

+1.1%

1 month

+1.6%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

53%

Calls that beat the market

based on 249 deduplicated bets

53% beat their sector 47% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 249 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Not yet conclusive

Across 249 bets, @gnoble79's average call beat its sector by 1.0% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 1.1, but not decisive yet.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 1.1 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 249 bets count as 232 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 1.1, not the raw 1.1. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	-0.1%	-0.1%	48%	257
1 month	+1.1%	+0.9%	55%	249
3 months	+1.6%	+1.6%	52%	220
6 months	+4.2%	+4.2%	55%	130
1 year	-5.5%	-5.8%	41%	61

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction500 calls · 55% hit

-0.4%

Low conviction54 calls · 59% hit

+1.7%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure32 calls · 72% hit

+4.6%

Sarcasm9 calls · 67% hit

+3.0%

Analysis249 calls · 57% hit

-0.0%

News Reaction7 calls · 43% hit

-0.9%

Long vs short

Long143 calls · 55% hit

+0.0%

Short411 calls · 56% hit

-0.3%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2026-04-17 BIRD

“Allbirds-to-NewBird-AI is the same warning but louder”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

… billion a year on real AI infrastructure and most of the buyers still cannot measure a return. And now we are pricing a wool sock company as a neocloud. This is how late-cycle tops feel from the inside. Not with a crash. With absurdity. Long Blockchain Corp. was not a business. It was a warning. Allbirds-to-NewBird-AI is the same warning but louder. Own real cash flow. Own gold. Own silver. Own companies that make things people actually buy. Not stupid hype.

+59.6%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2025-11-07 ABTC

“$ABTC down almost 50% since my post. This POS will still go lower.”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$ABTC down almost 50% since my post. This POS will still go lower. $HUT along for the ride. @ericjackson @DavidDTawil

+57.8%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2025-12-23 SRXH

“Eric, please do a reverse split. That will make it easier to short. … $SRXH has 69.5mm shares outstanding, has registered 187mm shares for sale, with a potentia…”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Pet food, crypto, 100 baggers and @ericjackson - that’s not just a merger, that’s a sinking ship. SRXH was formerly known as Better Choice Company (pet food and wellness products) and rebranded to SRx Health Solutions in April 2025. In December 2025, it announced a definitive agreement to acquire EMJ Crypto Technologies (EMJX), pivoting the business toward a digital-asset treasury management platform using AI, quantitative models, and risk controls for managing crypto and digital assets.” Eric, please do a reverse split. That will make it easier to short. @APompliano @dayetweets --- $SRXH has 69.5mm shares outstanding, has registered 187mm shares for sale, with a potential for 2.8b share fully diluted! That makes the equity basically worthless. @ericjackson @APompliano https://t.co/dJbWh3lTKI --- You can’t make this stuff up. https://t.co/2IqMfjowXi

+28.6%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2023-01-05 TSLA

“THE $TSLA crash will be the biggest ever collapse in market capitalization”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@KcrEquity @KailashConcepts @BradMunchen Here is the full 2.5 hour version. CHECKMATE. GAME OVER. THE $TSLA crash will be the biggest ever collapse in market capitalization. This will be truly EPIC! @CathieDWood $ARKK @ValueAnalyst1

-54.9%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2025-09-06 OPEN

“Broken company with bad model that can't be fixed. The numbers just don't work.”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@RandianCapital Broken company with bad model that can’t be fixed. The numbers just don’t work.

-53.9%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2025-12-31 MU

“Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when…”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

“Nobody knows where this cycle will end.” Agreed. I don’t. You don’t. But we do know that $MU is expensive on a price to book basis. As I learned from my former boss Peter Lynch it is usually a bad idea to buy a stock in a cyclical industry when it appears cheap. Micron is inexpensive based on current earnings, but is wildly over earning at present. Either a huge increase in capacity or a deceleration in demand growth would easily cause earnings and the stock price to collapse. It is only a question of when, not if. History would argue that buying $MU now is likely to lead to poor returns over time.

-36.8%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short sarcasm +2.5% vs -0.1% overall · 5 bets
1 month short position disclosures +10.5% vs +1.1% overall · 6 bets
3 months short position disclosures +4.7% vs +1.6% overall · 4 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@gnoble79 · audited 28 Jun 2026

calls found595

independent bets249

beat the market53%

avg edge / month+1.0%

best callBIRD +59.6%

worst callTSLA -54.9%

VERDICT: INCONCLUSIVE

SCORE 4/10

Watch out for

their short position disclosures · +10.5% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @gnoble79's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.