XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @mikealfred · 28 Jun 2026

out of 10

@mikealfred · 1194 verified calls backtested

Worth Following

@mikealfred's calls have beaten their sector by 2.7% per month, winning 50% of the time.

+2.7%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.3%

1 day

+3.0%

1 month

+13.1%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

50%

Calls that beat the market

based on 405 deduplicated bets

50% beat their sector 50% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 405 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Unlikely to be luck

Across 405 bets, @mikealfred's average call beat its sector by 2.7% per month, each bet judged on its author's own timeframe (1 month when unstated, or as far into it as the data reaches) — t = 2.1, unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 2.1 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 405 bets count as 297 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 2.1, not the raw 2.4. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.3%	+0.3%	48%	412
1 month	+3.0%	+3.0%	51%	403
3 months	+13.1%	+12.6%	49%	371
6 months	+37.0%	+36.5%	47%	279
1 year	+87.6%	+86.6%	54%	125

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction1044 calls · 50% hit

+5.0%

Low conviction129 calls · 50% hit

+1.0%

Return by post type

Analysis59 calls · 54% hit

+5.7%

Prediction934 calls · 51% hit

+5.0%

Position Disclosure148 calls · 48% hit

+3.4%

News Reaction27 calls · 26% hit

-4.5%

Long vs short

Long1130 calls · 51% hit

+5.2%

Short43 calls · 35% hit

-12.4%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2025-09-05 IREN

“I have never sold a single share of IREN. No plans to do so in the future.”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@theBTCMiningGuy I already have one of those. I have never sold a single share of IREN. No plans to do so in the future. Unlike a lot of other people in this industry, I pay my taxes on the RSUs out of other income.

+119.3%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2025-09-23 BKKT

“it's a great time to take another look at BKKT. Bakkt sits at the nexus of the most important trends in global finance at the moment”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

If you think Bitcoin, stablecoins, and AI will be at the center of regulated finance in the US over the next 5 years, it's a great time to take another look at BKKT. Bakkt sits at the nexus of the most important trends in global finance at the moment.

+62.8%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2026-03-28 ASST

“I now have 606,000 shares (12M pre-split) and ready for the next few years of gains”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@MoshPitAlpha This was meant to be snarky but it's treating me fantastically. When you're buying a stock, you want it to give you plenty of time at lower prices so you can accumulate. I now have 606,000 shares (12M pre-split) and ready for the next few years of gains. You are now muted. Bye.

+55.9%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2026-02-12 HIMS

“See you at sub $10 HIMS.”

Short · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@DoctorBradberry @LoveMy7Wood Poor guy. See you at sub $10 HIMS. Stick to your day job.

-59.6%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2025-10-16 BKKT

“Do not bet against this team. More to come.”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Today we announced that we are collapsing the dual class share structure at Bakkt in to a single class of common. This will reduce the barriers for institutional shareholders to take positions. Akshay is an absolute wiz at this stuff. Do not bet against this team. More to come.

-55.3%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2026-01-07 ASST

“ASST $5”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

All these early year headfake moves are little more than games. Noise. Static. They have nothing to do with where we're probably headed: BTC $180,000+ ETH $6,000+ CIFR $55 NVO $90 ASST $5 Etc

-47.5%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short analysis posts +1.2% vs +0.3% overall · 4 bets
1 month long analysis posts +6.6% vs +3.0% overall · 20 bets
3 months long news-reaction posts +38.1% vs +13.1% overall · 10 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@mikealfred · audited 28 Jun 2026

calls found1,194

independent bets405

beat the market50%

avg edge / month+2.7%

best callIREN +119.3%

worst callHIMS -59.6%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING

SCORE 7/10

Watch out for

their long analysis posts · +6.6% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @mikealfred's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.