XAnalytics · Backtest audit File @nitininvests · 1 Jun 2026

out of 10

@nitininvests · 744 verified calls backtested

Worth Following

@nitininvests's calls have beaten their sector by 2.4% per month, winning 51% of the time.

+2.4%

Avg. return vs its sector

per call · over the timeframe it called (or 1 month)

+0.4%

1 day

+2.4%

1 month

+8.9%

3 months

the same calls held a fixed 1 day / 1 month / 3 months

51%

Calls that beat the market

based on 416 deduplicated bets

51% beat their sector 49% didn't

Their calls have genuinely beaten the market.

What “return vs sector” means

Each call's stock vs its own sector — beating the sector, not just going up, is the fair test of skill. Averaged across 416 deduplicated bets. Calls that named their own timeframe are judged over that window (as a per-month rate); the rest over 1 month.

Unlikely to be luck

Across 416 bets, @nitininvests's average call beat its sector by 2.4% — t = 2.0, unlikely to be luck.

could be luckt = 2almost certain

t = 2.0 — the strength of the evidence. Above 2, there's under a 5% chance it's luck.

How the t-value works

Each call is one bet, scored by how much it beat its own sector (fairer than the whole market). The t-value is the average beat divided by its uncertainty:

t = x̄ ⁄ ( s ⁄ √M ) x̄ = avg beat · s = how much the bets vary · M = number of bets

Same-week, same-sector calls ride one move, so they prove less than fully independent wins — the 416 bets count as 386 effective ones. That's why the honest t is 2.0, not the raw 2.1. Full breakdown on the analysis page.

Performance over time

After	vs sector	vs S&P 500	Hit rate	Calls
1 day	+0.4%	+0.4%	50%	439
1 month	+2.4%	+2.2%	51%	416
3 months	+8.9%	+8.8%	48%	393
6 months	+14.6%	+13.9%	50%	363

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction477 calls · 50% hit

+3.3%

Low conviction181 calls · 55% hit

+4.0%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure117 calls · 53% hit

+7.4%

Analysis207 calls · 50% hit

+3.5%

Prediction317 calls · 52% hit

+2.6%

News Reaction17 calls · 35% hit

-5.6%

Long vs short

Long631 calls · 52% hit

+3.9%

Short27 calls · 33% hit

-5.3%

The evidence — best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

Exhibit A · 2024-11-06 ZVIA

Bullish ZVIA on strong cost-cutting, bottom-line improvement, Walmart distribution expansion, and marketing reinvestment into Q4 and beyond. summary

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

$ZVIA, it appears the hypothesis was on point. Soft last Q3 with Q4 growth velocity increasing and expected to increase. I am truly blown away by the cost cutting measures and how well the initiatives are flowing through to the bottom line. I think the management did way better than even they would have expected. The management is repositioning some of these savings into marketing starting Q4. The distribution network expansion with additional 800+ Walmart should also help. Excited to see how this plays out over the next 24 months.

+156.6%vs sector

Exhibit B · 2026-04-30 OSS

“the deal confirms the Pentagon's aggressive capital allocation edge computing, a direct read-through for OSS. DoDs requirements for systems (OSS) should natural…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

Feel like the $40M DoD contract awarded to $MRAM today validates the massive thematic tailwinds for $OSS. To me the deal confirms the Pentagon’s aggressive capital allocation edge computing, a direct read-through for OSS. DoDs requirements for systems (OSS) should naturally dwarf components (MRAM).

+71.8%vs sector

Exhibit C · 2024-09-15 LSF

“the dip last week was a gift. Doubled down on my position”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@KyleAdamsStocks Me too $LSF, the dip last week was a gift. Doubled down on my position.

+62.3%vs sector

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

Exhibit D · 2025-10-10 ZEPP

“I believe the company can do much more than 30%+ yearly growth … I wouldn't be surprised to see the Helio Strap alone generate more revenue than their entire cu…”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

… iven updates, meaning the product gets measurably better almost every month. The biggest current weakness is the notoriously poor sleep tracking, which is a significant deal-breaker for many. However, Zepp is rolling out updates to address this, and if they can substantially improve this feature, I believe the company can do much more than 30%+ yearly growth especially with US representing less than 20% of their total sales. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Helio Strap alone generate more revenue than their entire current product lineup. I still plan to release my complete thesis within the next week but wanted to get this note out.

-60.0%vs sector

Exhibit E · 2024-10-24 CPRI

“$20 won't stay for too long. Those assets as standalone would be far more valuable than $2.5B”

Long · low conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

@Dynamicbrands @paulcerro To be fair the business has deteriorated substantially since then. But $20 won’t stay for too long. Those assets as standalone would be far more valuable than $2.5B.

-53.6%vs sector

Exhibit F · 2024-07-18 CIFR

“Looking to add back $CLSK $MARA and $CIFR”

Long · high conviction · View on X ↗

Full post

This worked out well. Looking to add back $CLSK $MARA and $CIFR. $DEFTF still remains my favourite RR play. Feel like #BTC #Crypto exposure is a no-brainer with BTC Nashville and JD Vance having 10% of his portfolio in Bitcoin.

-34.7%vs sector

Their strongest setups — best combination at each horizon

1 day short analysis posts +3.7% vs +0.4% overall · 10 bets
1 month long position disclosures +5.2% vs +2.4% overall · 71 bets
3 months long analysis posts +14.1% vs +8.9% overall · 120 bets

Step behind the counter — every call, every chart, every time horizon. Filter by conviction or direction and chart any single trade.

Open the data room →

THE RECEIPTS

@nitininvests · audited 1 Jun 2026

calls found744

independent bets416

beat the market51%

avg edge / month+2.4%

best callZVIA +156.6%

worst callZEPP -60.0%

VERDICT: WORTH FOLLOWING

SCORE 7/10

Watch out for

their long position disclosures · +5.2% after 1 month

getxanalysis.net · run the receipts on anyone

Help shape XAnalytics

How we measured this · download the raw data

We pull @nitininvests's posts, use AI to extract each call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtest it against real prices. A call wins only if it beat its own sector over the month after — not just if the stock rose. Headline numbers use deduplicated bets.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.