@nitininvests · 758 verified calls backtested

Inconclusive

@nitininvests's high-conviction long calls have beaten their sector by 2.1% on average in the month after each call, winning 48% of the time.

+0.2%
1 day
+2.1%
1 month
+10.1%
3 months
Avg. market-beating return
per call · vs the stock's own sector
48%
Calls that beat the market
based on 282 high-conviction long calls
48% beat their sector 52% didn't

The signal is indistinguishable from noise.

Performance over time

Aftervs sectorvs S&P 500Hit rateCalls
1 day +0.5% +0.5% 49% 712
1 month +3.4% +3.4% 51% 680
3 months +11.6% +11.4% 51% 640
6 months +13.3% +12.4% 52% 595

“vs sector” compares each call to the stock's own industry — the fairest test of skill.

What drives the signal

Does conviction matter?

High conviction290 calls · 48% hit
+2.0%
Low conviction390 calls · 54% hit
+4.4%

Return by post type

Position Disclosure117 calls · 53% hit
+7.4%
Analysis221 calls · 51% hit
+3.5%
Prediction325 calls · 52% hit
+2.4%
News Reaction17 calls · 35% hit
-5.6%

Long vs short

Long631 calls · 52% hit
+3.9%
Short49 calls · 43% hit
-2.5%

Best & worst calls

Biggest wins (after 1 month)

FUBO
“Adds this morning: 3. $FUBO”
Long · low conviction · 2024-12-19 · View on X ↗
Full post
Adds this morning: 1. $LSF 2. $BOF 3. $FUBO Started a position in $WILD.TO $WILD is a pure social arbitrage play. Plan to buy a significant amount but want to scale in. Will share research hopefully later today.
+187.1%
ZVIA
“Excited to see how this plays out over the next 24 months. I am truly blown away by the cost cutting measures and how well the initiatives a”
Long · high conviction · 2024-11-06 · View on X ↗
Full post
$ZVIA, it appears the hypothesis was on point. Soft last Q3 with Q4 growth velocity increasing and expected to increase. I am truly blown away by the cost cutting measures and how well the initiatives are flowing through to the bottom line. I think the management did way better than even they would have expected. The management is repositioning some of these savings into marketing starting Q4. The distribution network expansion with additional 800+ Walmart should also help. Excited to see how this plays out over the next 24 months.
+156.6%
OSS
“the deal confirms the Pentagon's aggressive capital allocation edge computing, a direct read-through for OSS. DoDs requirements for systems ”
Long · high conviction · 2026-04-30 · View on X ↗
Full post
Feel like the $40M DoD contract awarded to $MRAM today validates the massive thematic tailwinds for $OSS. To me the deal confirms the Pentagon’s aggressive capital allocation edge computing, a direct read-through for OSS. DoDs requirements for systems (OSS) should naturally dwarf components (MRAM).
+71.8%

Biggest misses (after 1 month)

ZEPP
“I believe the company can do much more than 30%+ yearly growth… I wouldn't be surprised to see the Helio Strap alone generate more revenue t”
Long · high conviction · 2025-10-10 · View on X ↗
Full post
Since this tweet, $ZEPP is already up 36%. I apologize for the delay in posting my full thesis, as I've been on a partial vacation since early September. However, I couldn't wait any longer to highlight the Helio Strap, the core driver of my positive $ZEPP outlook. Launched in Q3, the Helio Strap is already seeing unprecedented demand. Zepp is struggling to keep it in stock, particularly in emerging markets with massive middle-class populations like India. The market is currently being primed by Whoop, which, despite its asinine pricing, is generating immense advertising and awareness. Top athletes, cricketers and golfers are wearing Whoop on a global stage and are driving this phenomenal visibility. Yet, due to the high cost, Whoop isn't fully capitalizing on the insane awareness it's creating. This is where Helio wins. Reviews and key opinion leaders (KOLs) have consistently concluded that the Helio Strap is a “WHOOP KILLER” and delivers 75-80% of the features for just 20% of the price (assuming a three-year lifespan). The community sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with the product's subreddit full of rave reviews and a passionate user base defending it. Beyond the competitive pricing, Zepp stands out as the only company in this competitive space that provides regular, user feedback driven updates, meaning the product gets measurably better almost every month. The biggest current weakness is the notoriously poor sleep tracking, which is a significant deal-breaker
-60.0%
CPRI
“$20 won't stay for too long. Those assets as standalone would be far more valuable than $2.5B”
Long · low conviction · 2024-10-24 · View on X ↗
Full post
@Dynamicbrands @paulcerro To be fair the business has deteriorated substantially since then. But $20 won’t stay for too long. Those assets as standalone would be far more valuable than $2.5B.
-53.6%
CLSK
“My favourites are $CLSK $MARA and $CIFR”
Long · low conviction · 2024-07-15 · View on X ↗
Full post
Took some profits on the miners this morning. Charts look great but it’s better to be prudent with profits. My favourites are $CLSK $MARA and $CIFR. Also, really like $DEFI at this valuation. Could be a great earnings play as well. Recommend reading @Mike10947310 sub on it.
-38.4%

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Explore the Analysis →
How we measured this · download the raw data

We pulled @nitininvests's post history, used AI to extract each investment call (ticker, direction, conviction), and backtested every call against real price history. “Beating the market” means out-performing the stock's own sector over the month after the post — so a call only counts as a win if it beat a fair benchmark, not just if the stock rose. The headline numbers use the cleanest signal: high-conviction long calls.

Download the full backtest data (JSONL)

Backtested results are computed from historical price data and do not predict future performance. Every signal here is extracted automatically from public posts and may misread intent, sarcasm, or context. This is not investment advice — verify everything independently before acting on it.